The solar dimming/brightening effect over the Mediterranean Basin in the period 1979-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kambezidis, H. D.; Kaskaoutis, D. G.; Kalliampakos, G. K.; Rashki, A.; Wild, M.

2016-12-01

Numerous studies have shown that the solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface is subjected to multi-decadal variations with significant spatial and temporal heterogeneities in both magnitude and sign. Although several studies have examined the solar radiation trends over Europe, North America and Asia, the Mediterranean Basin has not been studied extensively. This work investigates the evolution and trends in the surface net short-wave radiation (NSWR, surface solar radiation - reflected) over the Mediterranean Basin during the period 1979-2012 using monthly re-analysis datasets from the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and aims to shed light on the specific role of clouds on the NSWR trends. The solar dimming/brightening phenomenon is temporally and spatially analyzed over the Mediterranean Basin. The spatially-averaged NSWR over the whole Mediterranean Basin was found to increase in MERRA by +0.36 Wm-2 per decade, with higher rates over the western Mediterranean (+0.82 Wm-2 per decade), and especially during spring (March-April-May; +1.3 Wm-2 per decade). However, statistically significant trends in NSWR either for all-sky or clean-sky conditions are observed only in May. The increasing trends in NSWR are mostly associated with decreasing ones in cloud optical depth (COD), especially for the low (<700 hPa) clouds. The decreasing COD trends (less opaque clouds and/or decrease in absolute cloudiness) are more pronounced during spring, thus controlling the increasing tendency in NSWR. The NSWR trends for cloudless (clear) skies are influenced by changes in the water-vapor content or even variations in surface albedo to a lesser degree, whereas aerosols are temporally constant in MERRA. The slight negative trend (not statistically significant) in NSWR under clear skies for nearly all months and seasons implies a slight increasing trend in water vapor under a warming and more humid climatic scenario over the Mediterranean.

Temporal trends in dancing among adults between 1994 and 2012: The Health Survey for England.

PubMed

Vassallo, Amy Jo; Hiller, Claire E; Pappas, Evangelos; Stamatakis, Emmanuel

2018-01-01

The benefits of physical activity are established, however, increasing population physical activity levels remains a challenge. Participating in activities that are enjoyable and multidimensional, such as dancing, are associated with better adherence. However, the extent to which the general population participates in dancing and its temporal trends has not been well studied. The aim of this study was to investigate temporal trends and patterns and correlates of dance participation in England from 1994 to 2012 using a series of large nationally representative surveys. We used data from the Health Survey for England 1994, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2012 to examine dance temporal trends. Temporal trends data were age-standardized and correlates of dance participation were examined for males and females over each study year. Changes in population prevalence of dance participation were determined using multiple logistical regression with 1997 as the reference year. Of all survey participants (n=98,178) 7.8% (95%CI: 7.63-7.96) reported dance participation. There was a marked steady decrease over time, with the steepest decline from 2003 onwards. The multivariable-adjusted odds ratios for dance participation were 0.51 for males (95%CI 0.408-0.630, p<0.001) and 0.69 for females (95%CI: 0.598-0.973, p<0.001) in 2012 compared to 1997. Dance participation in adults in England has decreased markedly over time. This study suggests that dance is not being adequately utilized as a health enhancing physical activity, and therefore further research and resources should be dedicated to supporting dance in the community. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Temporal variation in phenotypic gender and expected functional gender within and among individuals in an annual plant.

PubMed

Austen, Emily J; Weis, Arthur E

2014-07-01

Adaptive explanations for variation in sex allocation centre on variation in resource status and variation in the mating environment. The latter can occur when dichogamy causes siring opportunity to vary across the flowering season. In this study, it is hypothesized that the widespread tendency towards declining fruit-set from first to last flowers on plants can similarly lead to a varying mating environment by causing a temporal shift in the quality (not quantity) of siring opportunities. A numerical model was developed to examine the effects of declining fruit-set on the expected male versus female reproductive success (functional gender) of first and last flowers on plants, and of early- and late-flowering plants. Within- and among-plant temporal variation in pollen production, ovule production and fruit-set in 70 Brassica rapa plants was then characterized to determine if trends in male and female investment mirror expected trends in functional gender. Under a wide range of model conditions, functional femaleness decreased sharply in the last flowers on plants, and increased from early- to late-flowering plants in the population. In B. rapa, pollen production decreased more rapidly than ovule production from first to last flowers, leading to a within-plant increase in phenotypic femaleness. Among plants, ovule production decreased from early- to late-flowering plants, causing a temporal decrease in phenotypic femaleness. The numerical model confirmed that declining fruit-set can drive temporal variation in functional gender, especially among plants. The discrepancy between observed trends in phenotypic gender in B. rapa and expected functional gender predicted by the numerical model does not rule out the possibility that male reproductive success decreases with later flowering onset. If so, plants may experience selection for early flowering through male fitness. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Cumulative meta-analysis: a new tool for detection of temporal trends and publication bias in ecology.

PubMed Central

Leimu, Roosa; Koricheva, Julia

2004-01-01

Temporal changes in the magnitude of research findings have recently been recognized as a general phenomenon in ecology, and have been attributed to the delayed publication of non-significant results and disconfirming evidence. Here we introduce a method of cumulative meta-analysis which allows detection of both temporal trends and publication bias in the ecological literature. To illustrate the application of the method, we used two datasets from recently conducted meta-analyses of studies testing two plant defence theories. Our results revealed three phases in the evolution of the treatment effects. Early studies strongly supported the hypothesis tested, but the magnitude of the effect decreased considerably in later studies. In the latest studies, a trend towards an increase in effect size was observed. In one of the datasets, a cumulative meta-analysis revealed publication bias against studies reporting disconfirming evidence; such studies were published in journals with a lower impact factor compared to studies with results supporting the hypothesis tested. Correlation analysis revealed neither temporal trends nor evidence of publication bias in the datasets analysed. We thus suggest that cumulative meta-analysis should be used as a visual aid to detect temporal trends and publication bias in research findings in ecology in addition to the correlative approach. PMID:15347521

Variability, trends, and drivers of regional fluctuations in Australian fire activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Earl, Nick; Simmonds, Ian

2017-07-01

Throughout the world fire regimes are determined by climate, vegetation, and anthropogenic factors, and they have great spatial and temporal variability. The availability of high-quality satellite data has revolutionized fire monitoring, allowing for a more consistent and comprehensive evaluation of temporal and spatial patterns. Here we utilize a satellite based "active fire" (AF) product to statistically analyze 2001-2015 variability and trends in Australian fire activity and link this to precipitation and large-scale atmospheric structures (namely, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)) known to have potential for predicting fire activity in different regions. It is found that Australian fire activity is decreasing (during summer (December-February)) or stable, with high temporal and spatial variability. Eastern New South Wales (NSW) has the strongest decreasing trend (to the 1% confidence level), especially during the winter (JJA) season. Other significantly decreasing areas are Victoria/NSW, Tasmania, and South-east Queensland. These decreasing fire regions are relatively highly populated, so we suggest that the declining trends are due to improved fire management, reducing the size and duration of bush fires. Almost half of all Australian AFs occur during spring (September-November). We show that there is considerable potential throughout Australia for a skillful forecast for future season fire activity based on current and previous precipitation activity, ENSO phase, and to a lesser degree, the IOD phase. This is highly variable, depending on location, e.g., the IOD phase is for more indicative of fire activity in southwest Western Australia than for Queensland.

Temporal trends (1987-2002) of persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic (PBT) chemicals in beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) from the St. Lawrence Estuary, Canada.

PubMed

Lebeuf, Michel; Noël, Michelle; Trottier, Steve; Measures, Lena

2007-09-20

Temporal trends of persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic (PBT) chemicals were examined in beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) from the St. Lawrence Estuary (SLE), Canada. Blubber samples of 86 adult belugas were collected from animals stranded on the shore of the SLE between 1987 and 2002 and analyzed for several regulated PBTs, including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), p,p'dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) and its metabolites, chlordane (CHL) and related compounds, hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) isomers, hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and Mirex. In addition, time trends of tris(4-chlorophenyl)methane (TCPMe) and tris(4-chlorophenyl)methanol (TCPMOH), two compounds that may origin from DDT formulations, were also examined. Concentrations of most of the PBTs examined had exponentially decreased by at least a factor of two (half-life time (t(1/2))<15 years) in beluga between 1987 and 2002 while no increasing trends were observed for any of the PBTs measured. The decreasing trends of PBT concentrations in SLE beluga may be due to a decline in contamination of its diet following North American and international regulations on the use and production of these compounds or by a change in its diet itself or by a combination of both. Some PBTs did not exhibit any significant trends in beluga possibly because the most intense elimination phase subsequent to legislative regulations occurred prior to the 1987-2002 time period. Other chemicals, such gamma-HCH, did not significantly decrease likely because they are still currently used in some restricted applications. Conversely, alpha-HCH showed a significant decreasing trend indicating that SigmaHCHs is not representative of all HCHs. Both TCPMe and TCPMOH exhibited no trends in beluga during the time period examined. The metabolic capacity of SLE beluga has apparently accelerated the depletion of at least one PBT, namely CB-28/31. A significant relationship between the half-life of PBTs in beluga and log Kow was observed for most of the chemicals examined. Several factors are expected to have influenced the temporal changes of PBT concentrations in beluga which limit the usefulness of this species as a bioindicator of changes in PBT contamination in the SLE ecosystem.

Assessment of short- and long-term memory in trends of major climatic variables over Iran: 1966-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mianabadi, Ameneh; Shirazi, Pooya; Ghahraman, Bijan; Coenders-Gerrits, A. M. J.; Alizadeh, Amin; Davary, Kamran

2018-02-01

In arid and semi-arid regions, water scarcity is the crucial issue for crop production. Identifying the spatial and temporal trends in aridity, especially during the crop-growing season, is important for farmers to manage their agricultural practices. This will become especially relevant when considering climate change projections. To reliably determine the actual trends, the influence of short- and long-term memory should be removed from the trend analysis. The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of short- and long-term memory on estimates of trends in two aridity indicators—the inverted De Martonne (ϕ IDM ) and Budyko (ϕ B ) indices. The analysis is done using precipitation and temperature data over Iran for a 50-year period (1966-2015) at three temporal scales: annual, wheat-growing season (October-June), and maize-growing season (May-November). For this purpose, the original and the modified Mann-Kendall tests (i.e., modified by three methods of trend free pre-whitening (TFPT), effective sample size (ESS), and long-term persistence (LTP)) are used to investigate the temporal trends in aridity indices, precipitation, and temperature by taking into account the effect of short- and long-term memory. Precipitation and temperature data were provided by the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO). The temporal trend analysis showed that aridity increased from 1966 to 2015 at the annual and wheat-growing season scales, which is due to a decreasing trend in precipitation and an increasing trend in mean temperature at these two timescales. The trend in aridity indices was decreasing in the maize-growing season, since precipitation has an increasing trend for most parts of Iran in that season. The increasing trend in aridity indices is significant in Western Iran, which can be related to the significantly more negative trend in precipitation in the West. This increasing trend in aridity could result in an increasing crop water requirement and a significant reduction in the crop production and water use efficiency. Furthermore, the modified Mann-Kendall tests indicated that unlike temperature series, precipitation, ϕ IDM , and ϕ B series are not affected by short- and long-term memory. Our results can help decision makers and water resource managers to adopt appropriate policy strategies for sustainable development in the field of irrigated agriculture and water resources management.

Canadian population trends in leisure-time physical activity levels, 1981-1998.

PubMed

Bruce, Marny J; Katzmarzyk, Peter T

2002-12-01

Age, sex, geographic and temporal trends in leisure-time physical activity levels were examined using data from five national surveys conducted between 1981 and 1998. Physical activity energy expenditure (AEE) was higher among men compared to women, and in younger versus older adults. AEE increased from Eastern to Western Canada, with a significant temporal trend of increasing AEE. The prevalence of physical inactivity (expending <12.6 kJ x kg(-1) x day(-1) has decreased; however, it remains high (women: 77%; men: 74%). The high prevalence of physical inactivity emphasizes the importance of population-level physical activity surveillance and interventions.

Work-related falls among union carpenters in Washington State before and after the Vertical Fall Arrest Standard.

PubMed

Lipscomb, Hester J; Li, Leiming; Dement, John

2003-08-01

Washington State enacted a change in their fall standard for the construction industry in 1991, preceding the Safety Standard for Fall Protection in the Construction Industry promulgated by Federal OSHA in 1994. We evaluated changes in the rate of falls from elevations and measures of severity among a large cohort of union carpenters after the fall standard change in Washington State, taking into account the temporal trends in their overall injury rates. There was a significant decrease in the rate of falls from height after the standard went into effect, even after adjusting for the overall decrease in work-related injuries among this cohort. Much of the decrease was immediate, likely representing the publicity surrounding fatal falls and subsequent promulgation of the standard. The greatest decrease was seen between 3 and 3(1/2) years after the standard went into effect. There was a significant reduction in mean paid lost days per event after the standard change and there was a significant reduction in mean cost per fall when adjusting for age and the temporal trend for costs among non-fall injuries. Through the use of observational methods we have demonstrated significant effects of the Washington State Vertical Fall Arrest Standard among carpenters in the absence of a control or comparison group. Without controlling for the temporal trend in overall injury rates, the rate of decline in falls appeared significantly greater, but the more pronounced, but delayed, decline was not seen. The analyses demonstrate potential error in failing to account for temporal patterns or assuming that a decline after an intervention is related to the intervention. Copyright 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A population-based analysis of temporal perioperative complication rates after minimally invasive radical prostatectomy.

PubMed

Schmitges, Jan; Trinh, Quoc-Dien; Abdollah, Firas; Sun, Maxine; Bianchi, Marco; Budäus, Lars; Zorn, Kevin; Perotte, Paul; Schlomm, Thorsten; Haese, Alexander; Montorsi, Francesco; Menon, Mani; Graefen, Markus; Karakiewicz, Pierre I

2011-09-01

Existing population-based reports on complication rates after minimally invasive radical prostatectomy (MIRP) did not address temporal trends. To examine contemporary temporal trends in perioperative MIRP outcomes. Between 2001 and 2007, 4387 patients undergoing MIRP were identified using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample. To examine the rates and trends of intraoperative and postoperative complications, transfusion rates, length of stay in excess of the median, and in-hospital mortality. We tested the effect of the late (2006-2007) versus the early (2001-2005) study period on all outcomes using multivariable logistic regression models controlled for clustering among hospitals. Intraoperative and postoperative complications decreased from 7.0% to 0.8% (p < 0.001) and from 28.5% to 8.7% (p < 0.001), respectively. Transfusion rates decreased from 3.5% to 2.1% (p = 0.3). Hospital length of stay >2 d decreased from 56% to 15% (p < 0.001). In multivariable analyses, intraoperative (odds ratio [OR]: 0.41; p = 0.002) and postoperative (OR: 0.65; p = 0.007) complications were less frequent in the late versus the early study period. Late study period patients were less likely to stay >2 d than early study period patients (OR: 0.34; p > 0.001). Limitations of these findings include the lack of adjustment for several patient variables including disease characteristics, surgeon variables including surgeon caseload, and the restriction to in-hospital events. Our analyses demonstrate that in-hospital complication rates and length of stay after MIRP decreased over time. This implies that temporal differences specific to complication rates after MIRP must be considered when comparisons are made with other radical prostatectomy techniques. Copyright © 2011 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Variability of tornado occurrence over the continental United States since 1950

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Li; Wang, Kaicun; Bluestein, Howard B.

2016-06-01

The United States experiences the most tornadoes of any country in the world. Given the catastrophic impact of tornadoes, concern has arisen regarding the variation in climatology of U.S. tornadoes under the changing climate. A recent study claimed that the temporal variability of tornado occurrence over the continental U.S. has increased since the 1970s. However, that study ignored the highly regionalized climatology of U.S. tornadoes. To address this issue, we examined the long-term trend of tornado temporal variability in each continental U.S. state. Based on the 64 year tornado records (1950-2013), we found that the trends in tornado temporal variability varied across the U.S., with only one third of the continental area or three out of 10 contiguous states (mostly from the Great Plains and Southeast, but where the frequency of occurrence of tornadoes is greater) displaying a significantly increasing trend. The other two-thirds area, where 60% of the U.S. tornadoes were reported (but the frequency of occurrence of tornadoes is less), however, showed a decreasing or a near-zero trend in tornado temporal variability. Furthermore, unlike the temporal variability alone, the combined spatial-temporal variability of U.S. tornado occurrence has remained nearly constant since 1950. Such detailed information on the climatological variability of U.S. tornadoes refines the claim of previous study and can be helpful for local mitigation efforts toward future tornado risks.

Detecting temporal trends in species assemblages with bootstrapping procedures and hierarchical models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gotelli, Nicholas J.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Grossman, Gary D.

2010-01-01

Quantifying patterns of temporal trends in species assemblages is an important analytical challenge in community ecology. We describe methods of analysis that can be applied to a matrix of counts of individuals that is organized by species (rows) and time-ordered sampling periods (columns). We first developed a bootstrapping procedure to test the null hypothesis of random sampling from a stationary species abundance distribution with temporally varying sampling probabilities. This procedure can be modified to account for undetected species. We next developed a hierarchical model to estimate species-specific trends in abundance while accounting for species-specific probabilities of detection. We analysed two long-term datasets on stream fishes and grassland insects to demonstrate these methods. For both assemblages, the bootstrap test indicated that temporal trends in abundance were more heterogeneous than expected under the null model. We used the hierarchical model to estimate trends in abundance and identified sets of species in each assemblage that were steadily increasing, decreasing or remaining constant in abundance over more than a decade of standardized annual surveys. Our methods of analysis are broadly applicable to other ecological datasets, and they represent an advance over most existing procedures, which do not incorporate effects of incomplete sampling and imperfect detection.

Response of surface water chemistry to reduced levels of acid precipitation: Comparison of trends in two regions of New York, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, Douglas A.; McHale, M.R.; Driscoll, C.T.; Roy, K.M.

2006-01-01

In light of recent reductions in sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) emissions mandated by Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, temporal trends and trend coherence in precipitation (1984-2001 and 1992-2001) and surface water chemistry (1992-2001) were determined in two of the most acid-sensitive regions of North America, i.e. the Catskill and Adirondack Mountains of New York. Precipitation chemistry data from six sites located near these regions showed decreasing sulphate (SO42-), nitrate (NO3-), and base cation (CB) concentrations and increasing pH during 1984-2001, but few significant trends during 1992-2001. Data from five Catskill streams and 12 Adirondack lakes showed decreasing trends in SO42- concentrations at all sites, and decreasing trends in NO3-, CB, and H+ concentrations and increasing trends in dissolved organic carbon at most sites. In contrast, acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC increased significantly at only about half the Adirondack lakes and in one of the Catskill streams. Flow correction prior to trend analysis did not change any trend directions and had little effect on SO42- trends, but it caused several significant non-flow-corrected trends in NO3- and ANC to become non-significant, suggesting that trend results for flow-sensitive constituents are affected by flow-related climate variation. SO42- concentrations showed high temporal coherence in precipitation, surface waters, and in precipitation-surface water comparisons, reflecting a strong link between S emissions, precipitation SO42- concentrations, and the processes that affect S cycling within these regions. NO3- and H+ concentrations and ANC generally showed weak coherence, especially in surface waters and in precipitation-surface water comparisons, indicating that variation in local-scale processes driven by factors such as climate are affecting trends in acid-base chemistry in these two regions. Copyright ?? 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Contrasted spatial and long-term trends in precipitation chemistry and deposition fluxes at rural stations in France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascaud, A.; Sauvage, S.; Coddeville, P.; Nicolas, M.; Croisé, L.; Mezdour, A.; Probst, A.

2016-12-01

The long-distance effect of atmospheric pollution on ecosystems has led to the conclusion of international agreements to regulate atmospheric emissions and monitor their impact. This study investigated variations in atmospheric deposition chemistry in France using data gathered from three different monitoring networks (37 stations) over the period from 1995 to 2007. Despite some methodological differences (e.g. type of collector, frequency of sampling and analysis), converging results were found in spatial variations, seasonal patterns and temporal trends. With regard to spatial variations, the mean annual pH in particular ranged from 4.9 in the north-east to 5.8 in the south-east. This gradient was related to the concentration of NO3- and non-sea-salt SO42- (maximum volume-weighted mean of 38 and 31 μeq l-1 respectively) and of acid-neutralising compounds such as non-sea-salt Ca2+ and NH4+. In terms of seasonal variations, winter and autumn pH were linked to lower acidity neutralisation than during the warm season. The temporal trends in atmospheric deposition varied depending on the chemical species and site location. The most significant and widespread trend was the decrease in non-sea-salt SO42- concentrations (significant at 65% of the stations). At the same time, many stations showed an increasing trend in annual pH (+0.3 on average for 16 stations). These two trends are probably due to the reduction in SO2 emissions that has been imposed in Europe since the 1980s. Temporal trends in inorganic N concentrations were rather moderate and not consistent with the trends reported in emission estimates. Despite the reduction in NOx emissions, NO3- concentrations in atmospheric deposition remained mostly unchanged or even increased at three stations (+0.43 μeq l-1 yr-1 on average). In contrast NH4+ concentrations in atmospheric deposition decreased at several stations located in western and northern areas, while the estimates of NH3 emissions remained fairly stable. The decrease in non-sea-salt SO42- and NH4+ concentrations was mainly due to a decrease in summer values and can in part be related to a dilution process since the precipitation amount showed an increasing trend during the summer. Furthermore, increasing trends in NO3- concentrations in the spring and, to a lesser extent, in NH4+ concentrations suggested that other atmospheric physicochemical processes should also be taken into account.

Analysis of temporal and spatial trends of hydro-climatic variables in the Wei River Basin.

PubMed

Zhao, Jing; Huang, Qiang; Chang, Jianxia; Liu, Dengfeng; Huang, Shengzhi; Shi, Xiaoyu

2015-05-01

The Wei River is the largest tributary of the Yellow River in China. The relationship between runoff and precipitation in the Wei River Basin has been changed due to the changing climate and increasingly intensified human activities. In this paper, we determine abrupt changes in hydro-climatic variables and identify the main driving factors for the changes in the Wei River Basin. The nature of the changes is analysed based on data collected at twenty-one weather stations and five hydrological stations in the period of 1960-2010. The sequential Mann-Kendall test analysis is used to capture temporal trends and abrupt changes in the five sub-catchments of the Wei River Basin. A non-parametric trend test at the basin scale for annual data shows a decreasing trend of precipitation and runoff over the past fifty-one years. The temperature exhibits an increase trend in the entire period. The potential evaporation was calculated based on the Penman-Monteith equation, presenting an increasing trend of evaporation since 1990. The stations with a significant decreasing trend in annual runoff mainly are located in the west of the Wei River primarily interfered by human activities. Regression analysis indicates that human activity was possibly the main cause of the decline of runoff after 1970. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Temporal trends of selected agricultural chemicals in Iowa's groundwater, 1982-1995: Are things getting better?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kolpin, D.W.; Sneck-Fahrer, D.; Hallberg, G.R.; Libra, R.D.

1997-01-01

Since 1982, the Iowa Groundwater Monitoring (IGWM) Program has been used to sample untreated groundwater from Iowa municipal wells for selected agricultural chemicals. This long-term database was used to determine if concentrations of select agricultural chemicals in groundwater have changed with time. Nitrate, alachlor [2-chloro-2′-6′-diethyl-N-(methoxymethyl)-acetanilide], atrazine (2-chloro-4-ethylamino-6-isopropylamino-s-triazine), cyanazine [2-[[4-chloro-6-(ethylamino)-1,3,5-triazin-2-yl]amino]-2-methylpropionitrile)], and metolachlor [2-chloro-N-(2-ethyl-6-methylphenyl)-N-(2-methoxy-1-methylethyl) acetamide] were selected for this temporal analysis of the data. Conclusive temporal changes in frequency of detection and median chemical concentrations were found only for atrazine (decrease) and metolachlor (increase). The greatest temporal chemical changes occurred in the shallowest wells and in alluvial aquifers—both relating to groups of wells generally having the youngest groundwater age. The temporal patterns found for atrazine and metolachlor are consistent with their patterns of chemical use and/or application rates and are suggestive of a causal relation. Only continued data collection, however, will indicate if the trends in chemical concentrations described here represent long-term temporal patterns or only short-term changes in groundwater. No definitive answers could be made in regards to the question of overall improvements in groundwater quality with respect to agricultural chemical contamination and time, due to the inherent problems with the simplistic measurement of overall severity (summation of alachlor + atrazine + cyanazine + metolachlor concentrations) examined for this study. To adequately determine if there is an actual decreasing trend in the overall severity of contamination (improving groundwater quality), the collection of additional water-chemistry data and the investigation of other measures of severity are needed.

Spatial and temporal evaluation of long term trend (2005-2014) of OMI retrieved NO2 and SO2 concentrations in Henan Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Leishi; Lee, Chih Sheng; Zhang, Ruiqin; Chen, Liangfu

2017-04-01

Tropospheric NO2 and SO2 concentrations are of great importance with regard to air quality, atmospheric chemistry, and climate change. Due to lack of surface monitoring stations, this study analyzes long term trend of NO2 and SO2 levels (2005-2014), retrieved from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) board on the NASA's Aura satellite, in an important region of China - Henan Province. Henan Province, located in North China Plain, has encountered serious air pollution problems including extremely high PM2.5 concentrations and as one of the most polluted region in China. The satellite spatial images clearly show that high levels of both NO2 and SO2 are concentrated in north and northeastern regions with much lower levels observed in other parts of Henan. Both pollutants exhibit the highest levels in winter with the least in summer/spring. The temporal trend analysis based on moving average of deseasonalized and decyclic data indicates that for NO2, there is a continuous increasing pattern from 2005 to 2011 at 6.4% per year, thereafter, it shows a decreasing trend (10.6% per year). As for SO2, the increasing trend is about 16% per year from 2005 to 2007 with decreasing rate 7% per year from 2007 to 2014. The economic development with incredible annual 11% GDP growth in Henan is responsible for increasing levels of NO2 and SO2. The observed decreasing SO2 level starting in 2007 is due to reduced SO2 emission, utilization of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) devices and to some extent, in preparation of Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. On the other hand, increasing vehicle numbers (155% from 2006 to 2012) and coal consumption (37% during the same span), along with the lack of denitration process for removing flue/exhaust gas NOx are responsible for increasing NO2 trend until 2011. The ratio of SO2/NO2 started decreasing in 2007 and dropped significantly from 2011 to 2013 indicating good performance of FGD and ever increasing NOx contribution from mobile sources. Unlike those observed in developed countries (US, EU and Japan) where a decreasing trend for both SO2 and NO2 has been observed since 1990s, the observed upward and downward trend found in Henan is similar to those found in North China Plain and other parts of China. The spatial and temporal trend analyses of SO2 and NO2 in four other regions in Henan further indicate a similar trend to those observed in Henan Province, albeit with different increasing and decreasing rate. The results provide regulatory agency to develop action plans to combat air pollution problem in general and SO2 and NO2 problems in particular in Henan. The implications of our findings and recommendations for decision makers are discussed in the paper.

Biomonitoring of metals under the water framework directive: detecting temporal trends and abrupt changes, in relation to the removal of pollution sources.

PubMed

Solaun, O; Rodríguez, J G; Borja, A; González, M; Saiz-Salinas, J I

2013-02-15

Temporal trends in metal concentrations, i.e. Ag, Cd, Cu, Cr, Hg, Ni, Pb and Zn, measured in soft tissues of Mytilus galloprovincialis mussels and Crassostrea gigas oysters collected from estuarine waters within the Basque Country (Bay of Biscay), have been investigated to determine if actions undertaken have improved the environmental quality of rivers and estuaries. Data compiled between 1990 and 2010 have been analysed statistically, applying the Mann-Kendall and the Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon tests. Moreover, in those cases with significant trends, the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko Adaptive (KZA) filter was applied to detect abrupt changes. Results showed significant decreasing trends for some metals, i.e. Ni, Cu, Pb and Zn, and differences between medians. Trend lines showed abrupt changes occurring between 1998 and 2002. Therefore, observed downward trends were related to increased wastewater treatment and diversions of discharges to ocean, implemented mainly during 2000-2002. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Monitoring snow cover variability (2000-2014) in the Hengduan Mountains based on cloud-removed MODIS products with an adaptive spatio-temporal weighted method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xinghua; Fu, Wenxuan; Shen, Huanfeng; Huang, Chunlin; Zhang, Liangpei

2017-08-01

Monitoring the variability of snow cover is necessary and meaningful because snow cover is closely connected with climate and ecological change. In this work, 500 m resolution MODIS daily snow cover products from 2000 to 2014 were adopted to analyze the status in Hengduan Mountains. In order to solve the spatial discontinuity caused by clouds in the products, we propose an adaptive spatio-temporal weighted method (ASTWM), which is based on the initial result of a Terra and Aqua combination. This novel method simultaneously considers the temporal and spatial correlations of the snow cover. The simulated experiments indicate that ASTWM removes clouds completely, with a robust overall accuracy (OA) of above 93% under different cloud fractions. The spatio-temporal variability of snow cover in the Hengduan Mountains was investigated with two indices: snow cover days (SCD) and snow fraction. The results reveal that the annual SCD gradually increases and the coefficient of variation (CV) decreases with elevation. The pixel-wise trends of SCD first rise and then drop in most areas. Moreover, intense intra-annual variability of the snow fraction occurs from October to March, during which time there is abundant snow cover. The inter-annual variability, which mainly occurs in high elevation areas, shows an increasing trend before 2004/2005 and a decreasing trend after 2004/2005. In addition, the snow fraction responds to the two climate factors of air temperature and precipitation. For the intra-annual variability, when the air temperature and precipitation decrease, the snow cover increases. Besides, precipitation plays a more important role in the inter-annual variability of snow cover than temperature.

Temporal trends in human vulnerability to excessive heat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, Scott C.; Allen, Michael J.

2018-04-01

Over recent decades, studies have examined various morbidity and mortality outcomes associated with heat exposure. This review explores the collective knowledge of the temporal trends of heat on human health, with regard to the hypothesis that humans are less vulnerable to heat events presently than in the past. Using Web of Science and Scopus, the authors identified all peer-reviewed articles that contained keywords on human impact (e.g. mortality, morbidity) and meteorological component (e.g. heat, heatwave). After sorting, a total of 71 articles, both case studies and epidemiological studies, contained explicit assessments of temporal trends in human vulnerability, and thus were used in this review. Most of the studies utilized mortality data, focused on the developed world, and showed a general decrease in heat sensitivity. Factors such as the implementation of a heat warning system, increased awareness, and improved quality of life were cited as contributing factors that led to the decreased impact of heat. Despite the overall recent decreases in heat vulnerability, spatial variability was shown, and differences with respect to health outcomes were also discussed. Several papers noted increases in heat’s impact on human health, particularly when unprecedented conditions occurred. Further, many populations, from outdoor workers to rural residents, in addition to the populations in much of the developing world, have been significantly underrepresented in research to date, and temporal changes in their vulnerability should be assessed in future studies. Moreover, continued monitoring and improvement of heat intervention is needed; with projected changes in the frequency, duration, and intensity of heat events combined with shifts in demographics, heat will remain a major public health issue moving forward.

The analysis to understand temporal variation and long-range transport of aerosol over Northeast-Asia Using COMS, MI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

KIM, M.; Kim, J.

2016-12-01

Numerous efforts to retrieve aerosol optical properties (AOPs) using satellite measurements have been accumulated for decades, resulted in several qualified data which can be used for the analysis of spatiotemporal characteristics of AOPs. However, the limitation in the instrument lifetime restricts temporal window of the analysis of long-term AOPs variation. In this point of view, single channel algorithm, which uses a single visible channel to retrieve aerosol optical depth (AOD), has an advantage to extent the time domain of the analysis. The Korean geostationary earth orbit (GEO) satellite, the Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) includes the single channel Meteorological Imager (MI), which can also be utilized for the retrieval of AOPs. Since the GEO satellite measurement has an advantage for continuous monitoring of AOPs over Northeast Asia, we can analyze the spatiotemporal characteristic of the aerosol using MI observations. In this study, we investigate the trend of AOD and also discuss the impact of long-range transport of aerosol on the temporal variation. Since the year 2010 when the COMS was launched, AODs over Northeast China and Yellow Sea region show 3.02 % and 2.74 % decrease per year, respectively, which are significant trends in spite of only 5-year short period. The decreasing behavior seems associated with the recent decreasing frequency of dust event over the region. But other Northeast Asia regions do not show clear temporal change. The accuracy of retrieved AOD can relates to the uncertainty of this trend analysis. According to the error analysis, cloud contamination and error in bright surface reflectance results in the accuracy of AOD. Therefore, improvements of cloud masking process and surface reflectance estimation in the developed single channel MI algorithm will be required for the future study.

Contrasting runoff trends between dry and wet parts of eastern Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Wang, Yuanyuan; Zhang, Yongqiang; Chiew, Francis H S; McVicar, Tim R; Zhang, Lu; Li, Hongxia; Qin, Guanghua

2017-11-13

As the "Asian Water Tower", the Tibetan Plateau (TP) provides water resources for more than 1.4 billion people, but suffers from climatic and environmental changes, followed by the changes in water balance components. We used state-of-the-art satellite-based products to estimate spatial and temporal variations and trends in annual precipitation, evapotranspiration and total water storage change across eastern TP, which were then used to reconstruct an annual runoff variability series for 2003-2014. The basin-scale reconstructed streamflow variability matched well with gauge observations for five large rivers. Annual runoff increased strongly in dry part because of increases in precipitation, but decreased in wet part because of decreases in precipitation, aggravated by noticeable increases in evapotranspiration in the north of wet part. Although precipitation primarily governed temporal-spatial pattern of runoff, total water storage change contributed greatly to runoff variation in regions with wide-spread permanent snow/ice or permafrost. Our study indicates that the contrasting runoff trends between the dry and wet parts of eastern TP requires a change in water security strategy, and attention should be paid to the negative water resources impacts detected for southwestern part which has undergone vast glacier retreat and decreasing precipitation.

Spatio-Temporal b Value Trends For a PMMA-PMMA Frictional Interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, J.; Selvadurai, P. A.; Glaser, S. D.

2016-12-01

We develop a catalog of seismic events observed on a well-characterized PMMA-PMMA frictional interface to allow for an in depth study of spatio-temporal trends in along-fault b values. Recent studies of the 2009 L'Aquila [Gulia et al., GRL, 2016] and 2011 Tohoku-oki [Tormann et al., Nature Geo., 2015] events have found significant decrease in b values near the epicenters in the months leading up to rupture. Here, a fault is experimentally modeled using two Poly(methyl methacrylate) samples in a direct shear configuration. The initial, non-uniform distribution of asperities along the frictional interface was measured using a pressure sensitive film. Prior to a stick-slip event, localized seismicity was captured using 16 acoustic emission (AE) sensors, which provide the catalog events and b value analysis. We observe similar decreasing trends in b values prior to failure as observed in nature. We discuss the spatio-temporal variations in b values with respect to a slowly expanding shear rupture captured using dense `along-strike' arrays of 9 slip sensors and 24 strain gauges. The rate at which the shear rupture moved along the interface depended on the shear strength heterogeneity characterized by the non-uniform distribution of asperities. In the latter stages of nucleation, b values decrease primarily in a region with larger and more densely distributed asperities. The combined analysis will help confirm recent field observations and provide insight into the mechanics of foreshock sequences leading to earthquake rupture.

Intercepting moving targets: does memory from practice in a specific condition of target displacement affect movement timing?

PubMed

de Azevedo Neto, Raymundo Machado; Teixeira, Luis Augusto

2011-05-01

This investigation aimed at assessing the extent to which memory from practice in a specific condition of target displacement modulates temporal errors and movement timing of interceptive movements. We compared two groups practicing with certainty of future target velocity either in unchanged target velocity or in target velocity decrease. Following practice, both experimental groups were probed in the situations of unchanged target velocity and target velocity decrease either under the context of certainty or uncertainty about target velocity. Results from practice showed similar improvement of temporal accuracy between groups, revealing that target velocity decrease did not disturb temporal movement organization when fully predictable. Analysis of temporal errors in the probing trials indicated that both groups had higher timing accuracy in velocity decrease in comparison with unchanged velocity. Effect of practice was detected by increased temporal accuracy of the velocity decrease group in situations of decreased velocity; a trend consistent with the expected effect of practice was observed for temporal errors in the unchanged velocity group and in movement initiation at a descriptive level. An additional point of theoretical interest was the fast adaptation in both groups to a target velocity pattern different from that practiced. These points are discussed under the perspective of integration of vision and motor control by means of an internal forward model of external motion.

Analysis of the spatial-temporal change of the vegetation index in the upper reach of Han River Basin in 2000-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luan, Jinkai; Liu, Dengfeng; Zhang, Lianpeng; Huang, Qiang; Feng, Jiuliang; Lin, Mu; Li, Guobao

2018-06-01

Han River is the water source region of the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion in China and the ecological projects were implemented since many years ago. In order to monitor the change of vegetation in Han River and evaluate the effect of ecological projects, it is needed to reveal the spatial-temporal change of the vegetation in the upper reach of Han River quantitatively. The study is based on MODIS/Terra NDVI remote sensing data, and analyzes the spatial-temporal changes of the NDVI in August from 2000 to 2016 at pixel scale in the upper reach of Han River Basin. The results show that, the area with increasing NDVI between 0 and 0.005 per year accounts for 62.07 % of the area of upper reach of Han River Basin, and the area with changing rate between -0.005 and 0 per year accounts for 26.65 % of the research area. The area with significant decreasing trend only accounts for 2.76 %, while area significant increasing trend accounts for 13.47 %, and the area with increasing NDVI is much larger than the area with reducing NDVI. The vegetation index of each county is evaluated and found that, the areal proportion with significant decreasing trend in Hantai is the biggest, reaching 35.57 %. The areal proportion with significant increasing trend in Zhenba County, Ziyang County, Xunyang County, Zhashui County, Shangzhou District, Shanyang County and Yun County is larger than the others, and the areal proportions are more than 20 %. The largest areal proportion with significant increasing trend is in Shangzhou District and it reaches 31.11 %. On the whole, the area ratio in all districts and counties with increasing NDVI is much larger than the area ratio with decreasing NDVI.

Geographical, temporal and racial disparities in late-stage prostate cancer incidence across Florida: A multiscale joinpoint regression analysis

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Although prostate cancer-related incidence and mortality have declined recently, striking racial/ethnic differences persist in the United States. Visualizing and modelling temporal trends of prostate cancer late-stage incidence, and how they vary according to geographic locations and race, should help explaining such disparities. Joinpoint regression is increasingly used to identify the timing and extent of changes in time series of health outcomes. Yet, most analyses of temporal trends are aspatial and conducted at the national level or for a single cancer registry. Methods Time series (1981-2007) of annual proportions of prostate cancer late-stage cases were analyzed for non-Hispanic Whites and non-Hispanic Blacks in each county of Florida. Noise in the data was first filtered by binomial kriging and results were modelled using joinpoint regression. A similar analysis was also conducted at the state level and for groups of metropolitan and non-metropolitan counties. Significant racial differences were detected using tests of parallelism and coincidence of time trends. A new disparity statistic was introduced to measure spatial and temporal changes in the frequency of racial disparities. Results State-level percentage of late-stage diagnosis decreased 50% since 1981; a decline that accelerated in the 90's when Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) screening was introduced. Analysis at the metropolitan and non-metropolitan levels revealed that the frequency of late-stage diagnosis increased recently in urban areas, and this trend was significant for white males. The annual rate of decrease in late-stage diagnosis and the onset years for significant declines varied greatly among counties and racial groups. Most counties with non-significant average annual percent change (AAPC) were located in the Florida Panhandle for white males, whereas they clustered in South-eastern Florida for black males. The new disparity statistic indicated that the spatial extent of racial disparities reached a peak in 1990 because of an early decline in frequency of late-stage diagnosis observed for black males. Conclusions Analyzing temporal trends in cancer incidence and mortality rates outside a spatial framework is unsatisfactory, since it leads one to overlook significant geographical variation which can potentially generate new insights about the impact of various interventions. Differences observed among nested geographies in Florida show how the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) also impacts the analysis of temporal changes. PMID:22142274

Geographical, temporal and racial disparities in late-stage prostate cancer incidence across Florida: a multiscale joinpoint regression analysis.

PubMed

Goovaerts, Pierre; Xiao, Hong

2011-12-05

Although prostate cancer-related incidence and mortality have declined recently, striking racial/ethnic differences persist in the United States. Visualizing and modelling temporal trends of prostate cancer late-stage incidence, and how they vary according to geographic locations and race, should help explaining such disparities. Joinpoint regression is increasingly used to identify the timing and extent of changes in time series of health outcomes. Yet, most analyses of temporal trends are aspatial and conducted at the national level or for a single cancer registry. Time series (1981-2007) of annual proportions of prostate cancer late-stage cases were analyzed for non-Hispanic Whites and non-Hispanic Blacks in each county of Florida. Noise in the data was first filtered by binomial kriging and results were modelled using joinpoint regression. A similar analysis was also conducted at the state level and for groups of metropolitan and non-metropolitan counties. Significant racial differences were detected using tests of parallelism and coincidence of time trends. A new disparity statistic was introduced to measure spatial and temporal changes in the frequency of racial disparities. State-level percentage of late-stage diagnosis decreased 50% since 1981; a decline that accelerated in the 90's when Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) screening was introduced. Analysis at the metropolitan and non-metropolitan levels revealed that the frequency of late-stage diagnosis increased recently in urban areas, and this trend was significant for white males. The annual rate of decrease in late-stage diagnosis and the onset years for significant declines varied greatly among counties and racial groups. Most counties with non-significant average annual percent change (AAPC) were located in the Florida Panhandle for white males, whereas they clustered in South-eastern Florida for black males. The new disparity statistic indicated that the spatial extent of racial disparities reached a peak in 1990 because of an early decline in frequency of late-stage diagnosis observed for black males. Analyzing temporal trends in cancer incidence and mortality rates outside a spatial framework is unsatisfactory, since it leads one to overlook significant geographical variation which can potentially generate new insights about the impact of various interventions. Differences observed among nested geographies in Florida show how the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) also impacts the analysis of temporal changes.

Temporal trends in and influence of wind on PAH concentrations measured near the Great Lakes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cortes, D.R.; Basu, I.; Sweet, C.W.

2000-02-01

This paper reports on temporal trends in gas- and particle-phase PAH concentrations measured at three sites in the Great Lakes' Integrated Atmospheric Deposition Network: Eagle Harbor, near Lake Superior, Sleeping Bear Dunes, near Lake Michigan, and Sturgeon Point, near Lake Erie. While gas-phase concentrations have been decreasing since 1991 at all sites, particle-phase concentrations have been decreasing only at Sleeping Bear Dunes. To determine whether these results represent trends in background levels or regional emissions, the average concentrations are compared to those found in urban and rural studies. In addition, the influence of local wind direction on PAH concentrations ismore » investigated, with the assumption that dependence on wind direction implies regional sources. Using these two methods, it is found that PAH concentrations at Eagle Harbor and Sleeping Bear Dunes represent regional background levels but that PAH from the Buffalo Region intrude on the background levels measured at the Sturgeon Point site. At this site, wind from over Lake Erie reduces local PAH concentrations.« less

Temporal trends in organic carbon content in the main Swiss rivers, 1974-2010.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Murillo, J C; Zobrist, J; Filella, M

2015-01-01

Increases in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations have often been reported in rivers and lakes of the Northern Hemisphere over the last few decades. High-quality organic carbon (OC) concentration data have been used to study the change in DOC and total (TOC) organic carbon concentrations in the main rivers of Switzerland (Rhône, Rhine, Thur and Aar) between 1974 and 2010. These rivers are characterized by high discharge regimes (due to their Alpine origin) and by running in populated areas. Small long term trends (a general statistically significant decrease in TOC and a less clear increase in DOC concentrations), on the order of 1% of mean OC concentration per year, have been observed. An upward trend before 1999 reversed direction to a more marked downward trend from 1999 to 2010. Of the potential causes of OC temporal variation analysed (water temperature, dissolved reactive phosphorus and river discharge), only discharge explains a significant, albeit still small, part of TOC variability (8-31%), while accounting for barely 2.5% of DOC variability. Estimated anthropogenic TOC and DOC loads (treated sewage) to the rivers could account for a maximum of 4-20% of the temporal trends. Such low predictability is a good example of the limitations faced when studying causality and drivers behind small variations in complex systems. River export of OC from Switzerland has decreased significantly over the period. Since about 5.5% of estimated NEP of Switzerland is exported by the rivers, riverine OC fluxes should be taken into account in a detailed carbon budget of the country. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal variability and trends of precipitation and extreme rainfall events in Ethiopia in 1980-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gummadi, Sridhar; Rao, K. P. C.; Seid, Jemal; Legesse, Gizachew; Kadiyala, M. D. M.; Takele, Robel; Amede, Tilahun; Whitbread, Anthony

2017-12-01

This article summarizes the results from an analysis conducted to investigate the spatio-temporal variability and trends in the rainfall over Ethiopia over a period of 31 years from 1980 to 2010. The data is mostly observed station data supplemented by bias-corrected AgMERRA climate data. Changes in annual and Belg (March-May) and Kiremt (June to September) season rainfalls and rainy days have been analysed over the entire Ethiopia. Rainfall is characterized by high temporal variability with coefficient of variation (CV, %) varying from 9 to 30% in the annual, 9 to 69% during the Kiremt season and 15-55% during the Belg season rainfall amounts. Rainfall variability increased disproportionately as the amount of rainfall declined from 700 to 100 mm or less. No significant trend was observed in the annual rainfall amounts over the country, but increasing and decreasing trends were observed in the seasonal rainfall amounts in some areas. A declining trend is also observed in the number of rainy days especially in Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions. Trends in seasonal rainfall indicated a general decline in the Belg season and an increase in the Kiremt season rainfall amounts. The increase in rainfall during the main Kiremt season along with the decrease in the number of rainy days leads to an increase in extreme rainfall events over Ethiopia. The trends in the 95th-percentile rainfall events illustrate that the annual extreme rainfall events are increasing over the eastern and south-western parts of Ethiopia covering Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. During the Belg season, extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over central Ethiopia extending towards the southern part of the country while during the Kiremt season, they are observed over parts of Oromia, (covering Borena, Guji, Bali, west Harerge and east Harerge), Somali, Gambella, southern Tigray and Afar regions. Changes in the intensity of extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over south-eastern parts of Ethiopia extending to the south-west covering Somali and Oromia regions. Similar trends are also observed in the greatest 3-, 5- and 10-day rainfall amounts. Changes in the consecutive dry and wet days showed that consecutive wet days during Belg and Kiremt seasons decreased significantly in many areas in Ethiopia while consecutive dry days increased. The consistency in the trends over large spatial areas confirms the robustness of the trends and serves as a basis for understanding the projected changes in the climate. These results were discussed in relation to their significance to agriculture.

Extent of Night Warming Differentiates the Temporal Trend of Tropical Greenness over 2001-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, M.; Gao, Q.; Gao, C.; Wang, C.

2016-12-01

Tropical forests have essential functions in global C dynamic but vulnerable to changes in land cover land use (LCLUC) and climate. The tropics of Caribbean are experiencing warming and drying climate and diverse LCLUC. However, large-scale studies to detect long-term trends of C and associated mechanisms are still rare. Using MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), we investigated trend of greenness in the Greater Antilles Caribbean during 2000 - 2015 and further analyzed the trend of vegetation patches without LCLUC to separate the climate impacts. We hypothesized that rainfall decrease or/and warming would reduce EVI in this tropical region. All five countries showed significantly decreasing EVI except Cuba of which EVI was increasing partly due to strong reforestation. Haiti has the steepest decreasing EVI due to its deforestation for charcoals. EVI trend varied greatly even for patches without LCLUC, tending to decrease in the windward but increase in the leeward of the island Puerto Rico. Contrary to our intuition, the rainfall was mostly increasing. However the rising night temperature significantly and negatively correlates with the spatial pattern of EVI trends. Although the cooled daytime and increased rainfall might enhance EVI, night warming dominated the climate impacts and differentiated the EVI trend.

Spatial and temporal variations of particulate organic carbon in the Yellow-Bohai Sea over 2002-2016.

PubMed

Fan, Hang; Wang, Xiujun; Zhang, Haibo; Yu, Zhitong

2018-05-22

The Yellow-Bohai Sea (YBS) is a typical marginal sea in the Northwest Pacific Ocean; however, little is known about the dynamics of particulate organic carbon (POC) and underlying mechanisms. Here, we analyze the spatial and temporal variations of surface POC derived from MODIS-Aqua during 2002-2016. Overall, POC is higher in the Bohai Sea (315-588 mg m -3 ) than in the Yellow Sea (181-492 mg m -3 ), and higher in the nearshore than in the offshore. Surface POC is highest in spring in the YBS, and lowest in winter (summer) in the Bohai Sea (the Yellow Sea). The spatial and seasonal patterns of POC are due to combined influences of primary productivity, water exchange, sediment resuspension and terrestrial inputs. Surface POC shows an overall decreasing trend prior to 2012 followed by an upward trend until 2015 in the YBS, which is almost opposite to chlorophyll; the decrease (increase) may result from strengthened (weakened) water exchange with the East China Sea through the Yellow Sea Warm Current. Declined terrestrial runoff is also partly responsible for the decrease prior to 2012. Our study suggests that water exchange and sediment resuspension are dominant factors regulating the spatial and temporal variability of POC in the YBS.

Comparison of future and base precipitation anomalies by SimCLIM statistical projection through ensemble approach in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amin, Asad; Nasim, Wajid; Mubeen, Muhammad; Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Lin, Zhaohui; Wahid, Abdul; Sultana, Syeda Refat; Gibbs, Jim; Fahad, Shah

2017-09-01

Unpredictable precipitation trends have largely influenced by climate change which prolonged droughts or floods in South Asia. Statistical analysis of monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation trend carried out for different temporal (1996-2015 and 2041-2060) and spatial scale (39 meteorological stations) in Pakistan. Statistical downscaling model (SimCLIM) was used for future precipitation projection (2041-2060) and analyzed by statistical approach. Ensemble approach combined with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) at medium level used for future projections. The magnitude and slop of trends were derived by applying Mann-Kendal and Sen's slop statistical approaches. Geo-statistical application used to generate precipitation trend maps. Comparison of base and projected precipitation by statistical analysis represented by maps and graphical visualization which facilitate to detect trends. Results of this study projects that precipitation trend was increasing more than 70% of weather stations for February, March, April, August, and September represented as base years. Precipitation trend was decreased in February to April but increase in July to October in projected years. Highest decreasing trend was reported in January for base years which was also decreased in projected years. Greater variation in precipitation trends for projected and base years was reported in February to April. Variations in projected precipitation trend for Punjab and Baluchistan highly accredited in March and April. Seasonal analysis shows large variation in winter, which shows increasing trend for more than 30% of weather stations and this increased trend approaches 40% for projected precipitation. High risk was reported in base year pre-monsoon season where 90% of weather station shows increasing trend but in projected years this trend decreased up to 33%. Finally, the annual precipitation trend has increased for more than 90% of meteorological stations in base (1996-2015) which has decreased for projected year (2041-2060) up to 76%. These result revealed that overall precipitation trend is decreasing in future year which may prolonged the drought in 14% of weather stations under study.

Assessment of long-term monthly and seasonal trends of warm (cold), wet (dry) spells in Kansas, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dokoohaki, H.; Anandhi, A.

2013-12-01

A few recent studies have focused on trends in rainfall, temperature, and frost indicators at different temporal scales using centennial weather station data in Kansas; our study supplements this work by assessing the changes in spell indicators in Kansas. These indicators provide the duration between temperature-based (warm and cold) and precipitation-based (wet and dry) spells. For wet (dry) spell calculations, a wet day is defined as a day with precipitation ≥1 mm, and a dry day is defined as one with precipitation ≤1 mm. For warm (cold) spell calculations, a warm day is defined as a day with maximum temperature >90th percentile of daily maximum temperature, and a cold day is defined as a day with minimum temperature <10th percentile of daily minimum temperature. The percentiles are calculated for 1971-2000, and four spell indicators are calculated: Average Wet Spell Length (AWSL), Dry Spell Length (ADSL), Average Warm Spell Days (AWSD) and Average Cold Spell Days (ACSD) are calculated. Data were provided from 23 centennial weather stations across Kansas, and all calculations were done for four time periods (through 1919, 1920-1949, 1950-1979, and 1980-2009). The definitions and software provided by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were adapted for application to Kansas. The long- and short-term trends in these indices were analyzed at monthly and seasonal timescales. Monthly results indicate that ADSL is decreasing and AWSL is increasing throughout the state. AWSD and ACSD both showed an overall decreasing trend, but AWSD trends were variable during the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Results of seasonal analysis revealed that the fall season recorded the greatest increasing trend for ACSD and the greatest decreasing trend for AWSD across the whole state and during all time periods. Similarly, the greatest increasing and decreasing trends occurred in winter for AWSL and ADSL, respectively. These variations can be important indicators of climatic change that may not be represented in mean conditions. Detailed geographical and temporal variations of the spell indices also can be beneficial for updating management decisions and providing adaptation recommendations for local and regional agricultural production.

Epidemiology of hypospadias in Europe: a registry-based study.

PubMed

Bergman, Jorieke E H; Loane, Maria; Vrijheid, Martine; Pierini, Anna; Nijman, Rien J M; Addor, Marie-Claude; Barisic, Ingeborg; Béres, Judit; Braz, Paula; Budd, Judith; Delaney, Virginia; Gatt, Miriam; Khoshnood, Babak; Klungsøyr, Kari; Martos, Carmen; Mullaney, Carmel; Nelen, Vera; Neville, Amanda J; O'Mahony, Mary; Queisser-Luft, Annette; Randrianaivo, Hanitra; Rissmann, Anke; Rounding, Catherine; Tucker, David; Wellesley, Diana; Zymak-Zakutnia, Natalya; Bakker, Marian K; de Walle, Hermien E K

2015-12-01

Hypospadias is a common congenital malformation. The prevalence of hypospadias has a large geographical variation, and recent studies have reported both increasing and decreasing temporal trends. It is unclear whether hypospadias prevalence is associated with maternal age. To analyze the prevalence and trends of total hypospadias, isolated hypospadias, hypospadias with multiple congenital anomalies, hypospadias with a known cause, and hypospadias severity subtypes in Europe over a 10-year period and to investigate whether maternal age is associated with hypospadias. We included all children with hypospadias born from 2001 to 2010 who were registered in 23 EUROCAT registries. Information on the total number of births and maternal age distribution for the registry population was also provided. We analyzed the total prevalence of hypospadias and relative risks by maternal age. From 2001 to 2010, 10,929 hypospadias cases were registered in 5,871,855 births, yielding a total prevalence of 18.61 per 10,000 births. Prevalence varied considerably between different registries, probably due to differences in ascertainment of hypospadias cases. No significant temporal trends were observed with the exceptions of an increasing trend for anterior and posterior hypospadias and a decreasing trend for unspecified hypospadias. After adjusting for registry effects, maternal age was not significantly associated with hypospadias. Total hypospadias prevalence was stable in 23 EUROCAT registries from 2001 to 2010 and was not significantly influenced by maternal age.

Temporal Trend in Wood Dust Exposure During the Production of Wood Pellets.

PubMed

Eriksson, Kåre; Bryngelsson, Ing-Liss; Hagström, Katja

2017-05-01

Wood dust data collected in the production of wood pellets during 2001 to 2013 were evaluated to study a temporal trend in inhalation exposure. A linear mixed effects model of natural ln-transformed data was used to express the relative annual difference in inhalation wood dust exposure. There was an annual decrease of -20.5% of the geometric mean wood dust exposure during 2001 until 2013. The results were based on 617 inhalable dust samples collected at 14 different production units. The exposure to wood dust at the industrial premises investigated has decreased from a relatively high level of 6.4 mg m-3 in 2001 to 1.0 mg-3 in 2013. The Swedish Occupational Exposure Limit (SOEL) of 2 mg m-3 may still be exceeded. Analysis of the temporal trend in soft wood production units revealed declines in exposure of 20.5% per annum. It is important that precautions are taken to protect workers from a hazardous exposure to wood dust at the premises as the SOEL of 2 mg m-3 at some occasions is still exceeded. Additional measurements of wood dust exposure should be carried out on a regular basis in wood pellet production units in Sweden as well in other countries. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

Polybrominated biphenyl ethers in breast milk and infant formula from Shanghai, China: temporal trends, daily intake, and risk assessment.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiaolan; Zhang, Kaiqiong; Yang, Dan; Ma, Li; Lei, Bingli; Zhang, Xinyu; Zhou, Jing; Fang, Xiangming; Yu, Yingxin

2014-11-01

To investigate the temporal trend of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in breast milk and assess the risks to breast- and formula-fed infants, breast milk and infant formula samples were collected from Shanghai, China. The PBDE concentrations decreased from 14.8 to 4.85 pmol/g lipid weight during 2006-2012, with a rate of decrease by half approximately every four years. Although there were no significant correlations between the total PBDEs in breast milk and age, parity, and pre-pregnant BMI of mothers, there were significant differences between primiparous and multiparous mothers for tri- to hepta-BDEs. PBDEs in breast milk were much higher than those in infant formula (equivalent to 91.9 vs. 5.25 pg/mL). Among the different brand infant formulas, there were no significant differences in their PBDE concentrations. The estimated daily intake of PBDEs by breast- and formula-fed infants suggested that breast-fed infants are exposed to much more PBDEs than formula-fed ones (12.9 vs. 0.72 ng/kg-bw/day). However, the hazard quotient values were much smaller than one, indicating that the ingested PBDEs did not exert obvious adverse effects on both breast- and formula-fed infants considering non-carcinogenic effect endpoint. This is the first report on temporal trend of PBDEs in breast milk from China. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temporal trends in nitrate and selected pesticides in Mid-Atlantic ground water.

PubMed

Debrewer, Linda M; Ator, Scott W; Denver, Judith M

2008-01-01

Evaluating long-term temporal trends in regional ground-water quality is complicated by variable hydrogeologic conditions and typically slow flow, and such trends have rarely been directly measured. Ground-water samples were collected over near-decadal and annual intervals from unconfined aquifers in agricultural areas of the Mid-Atlantic region, including fractured carbonate rocks in the Great Valley, Potomac River Basin, and unconsolidated sediments on the Delmarva Peninsula. Concentrations of nitrate and selected pesticides and degradates were compared among sampling events and to apparent recharge dates. Observed temporal trends are related to changes in land use and chemical applications, and to hydrogeology and climate. Insignificant differences in nitrate concentrations in the Great Valley between 1993 and 2002 are consistent with relatively steady fertilizer application during respective recharge periods and are likely related to drought conditions in the later sampling period. Detecting trends in Great Valley ground water is complicated by long open boreholes characteristic of wells sampled in this setting which facilitate significant ground-water mixing. Decreasing atrazine and prometon concentrations, however, reflect reported changes in usage. On the Delmarva Peninsula between 1988 and 2001, median nitrate concentrations increased 2 mg per liter in aerobic ground water, reflecting increasing fertilizer applications. Correlations between selected pesticide compounds and apparent recharge date are similarly related to changing land use and chemical application. Observed trends in the two settings demonstrate the importance of considering hydrogeology and recharge date along with changing land and chemical uses when interpreting trends in regional ground-water quality.

Temporal trends of mercury concentrations in Wisconsin walleye (Sander vitreus), 1982-2005.

PubMed

Rasmussen, Paul W; Schrank, Candy S; Campfield, Patrick A

2007-11-01

The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources has monitored mercury (Hg) in several species of fish since the early 1970s primarily for fish consumption advisory purposes. We selected skin-on fillets of walleye (Sander vitreus) from inland lakes collected over the years 1982-2005 to assess temporal trends of Hg concentrations. While individual lakes are of interest, sample sizes, and unbalanced collections across fish lengths, seasons, or years prevent estimates of temporal trends of walleye Hg concentrations within most lakes. We evaluated temporal trends over all lakes using mixed effects models (3,024 records from 421 lakes). Relationships between Hg concentrations and a suite of lake chemistry, morphometry, and other variables were also explored. Hg concentrations generally increased with walleye length but the relationship varied among lakes. The best-fitting mixed effects models suggested that the overall rate of change in walleye Hg across all lakes in the dataset varied with latitude. Hg in walleye decreased 0.5% per year in northern lakes, increased 0.8% in southern lakes, and remained constant in middle latitude lakes over the period of 1982-2005. Season of collection was also an important predictor variable. Hg concentrations were highest in walleye captured in the spring and lowest in the fall. Other variables such as gender, lake area, and total alkalinity were also important predictors.

Trends in the leading causes of death in Korea, 1983-2012.

PubMed

Lim, Daroh; Ha, Mina; Song, Inmyung

2014-12-01

This study aimed to analyze trends in the 10 leading causes of death in Korea from 1983 to 2012. Death rates were derived from the Korean Statistics Information Service database and age-adjusted to the 2010 population. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify the points when statistically significant changes occurred in the trends. Between 1983 and 2012, the age-standardized death rate (ASR) from all causes decreased by 61.6% for men and 51.2% for women. ASRs from malignant neoplasms, diabetes mellitus, and transport accidents increased initially before decreasing. ASRs from hypertensive diseases, heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases and diseases of the liver showed favorable trends (ASR % change: -94.4%, -53.8%, -76.0%, and -78.9% for men, and -77.1%, -36.5%, -67.8%, and -79.9% for women, respectively). ASRs from pneumonia decreased until the mid-1990s and thereafter increased. ASRs from intentional self-harm increased persistently since around 1990 (ASR % change: 122.0% for men and 217.4% for women). In conclusion, death rates from all causes in Korea decreased significantly in the last three decades except in the late 1990s. Despite the great strides made in the overall mortality, temporal trends varied widely by cause. Mortality trends for malignant neoplasms, diabetes mellitus, pneumonia and intentional self-harm were unfavorable.

Spatial patterns and temporal trends in mercury concentrations, precipitation depths, and mercury wet deposition in the North American Great Lakes region, 2002-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risch, Martin R.; Gay, David A.; Fowler, Kathleen K.; Keeler, Gerard J.; Backus, Sean M.; Blanchard, Pierrette; Barres, James A.; Dvonch, J. Timothy

2012-01-01

Annual and weekly mercury (Hg) concentrations, precipitation depths, and Hg wet deposition in the Great Lakes region were analyzed by using data from 5 monitoring networks in the USA and Canada for a 2002-2008 study period. High-resolution maps of calculated annual data, 7-year mean data, and net interannual change for the study period were prepared to assess spatial patterns. Areas with 7-year mean annual Hg concentrations higher than the 12 ng per liter water-quality criterion were mapped in 4 states. Temporal trends in measured weekly data were determined statistically. Monitoring sites with significant 7-year trends in weekly Hg wet deposition were spatially separated and were not sites with trends in weekly Hg concentration. During 2002-2008, Hg wet deposition was found to be unchanged in the Great Lakes region and its subregions. Any small decreases in Hg concentration apparently were offset by increases in precipitation.

Temporal trends in physical violence, gender differences and spatial vulnerability of the location of victim's residences.

PubMed

Cavalcante, Gigliana Maria Sobral; de Macedo Bernardino, Ítalo; da Nóbrega, Lorena Marques; Ferreira, Raquel Conceição; Ferreira E Ferreira, Efigênia; d'Avila, Sérgio

2018-06-01

The aim of study was to describe trends in physical violence among Brazilian victims and investigate spatial vulnerability of the location of victim's residences. This study performed an ecological-level longitudinal analysis, examining violence rates over 4 years. Cases of 4795 victims of physical aggression attended at a Center of Legal Medicine were investigated. Trend analysis was used to evaluate the data, with the creation of polynomial regression models (p < 0.05). Violence rates showed significant temporal variations according to sociodemographic characteristics of victims (p < 0.05) and the circumstances of aggressions (p < 0.05). Moreover, there was a significant increase in violence rate in the North (R 2  = 16.1%; p = 0.019) and South (R 2  = 18.4%; p = 0.010), whereas the rural zone (R 2  = 10.1%; p = 0.028) presented a decrease. The findings highlight the need for protection policies that address spatial-temporal aspects. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Remotely Sensed Spatio-Temporal Variability of Snow Cover in Himalayan Region with Perspective of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhakal, S.; Ojha, S.

2017-12-01

Climate change and its impact of water resource have gained tremendous attention among scientific committee, governments and other stakeholders since last couple of decades, especially in Himalayan region. In this study, we purpose remotely sensed measurements to monitor snow cover, both spatially and temporal, and assess climate change impact on water resource. The snow cover data from MODIS satellite (2000-2010) have been used to analyze some climate change indicators. In particular, the variability in the maximum snow extent with elevations, its temporal variability (8-day, monthly, seasonal and annual), its variation trend and its relation with temperature have been analyzed. The snow products used in this study are the maximum snow extent and fractional snow covers, which come in 8-day temporal and 500m and 0.05 degree spatial resolutions, respectively. The results showed a tremendous potential of the MODIS snow product for studying the spatial and temporal variability of snow as well as the study of climate change impact in large and inaccessible regions like the Himalayas. The snow area extent (SAE) (%) time series exhibits similar patterns during seven hydrological years, even though there are some deviations in the accumulation and melt periods. The analysis showed relatively well inverse relation between the daily mean temperature and SAE during the melting period. Some important trends of snow fall are also observed. In particular, the decreasing trend in January and increasing trend in late winter and early spring may be interpreted as a signal of a possible seasonal shift. However, it requires more years of data to verify this conclusion.

Extent of Night Warming and Spatially Heterogeneous Cloudiness Differentiate Temporal Trend of Greenness in Mountainous Tropics in the New Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Mei; Gao, Qiong; Gao, Chunxiao; Wang, Chao

2017-01-01

Tropical forests have essential functions in global C dynamics but vulnerable to changes in land cover land use (LCLUC) and climate. The tropics of Caribbean are experiencing warming and drying climate and diverse LCLUC. However, large-scale studies to detect long-term trends of C and mechanisms behind are still rare. Using MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), we investigated greenness trend in the Greater Antilles Caribbean during 2000-2015, and analyzed trend of vegetation patches without LCLUC to give prominence to climate impacts. We hypothesized that night warming and heavy cloudiness would reduce EVI in this mountainous tropical region. Over the 15 years, EVI decreased significantly in Jamaica, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico, but increased in Cuba partly due to its strong reforestation. Haiti had the largest decreasing trend because of continuous deforestation for charcoals. After LCLUC was excluded, EVI trend still varied greatly, decreasing in the windward but increasing in the leeward of Puerto Rico. Nighttime warming reinforced by spatially heterogeneous cloudiness was found to significantly and negatively correlate with EVI trend, and explained the spatial pattern of the latter. Although cooled daytime and increased rainfall might enhance EVI, nighttime warming dominated the climate impacts and differentiated the EVI trend.

Extent of Night Warming and Spatially Heterogeneous Cloudiness Differentiate Temporal Trend of Greenness in Mountainous Tropics in the New Century

PubMed Central

Yu, Mei; Gao, Qiong; Gao, Chunxiao; Wang, Chao

2017-01-01

Tropical forests have essential functions in global C dynamics but vulnerable to changes in land cover land use (LCLUC) and climate. The tropics of Caribbean are experiencing warming and drying climate and diverse LCLUC. However, large-scale studies to detect long-term trends of C and mechanisms behind are still rare. Using MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), we investigated greenness trend in the Greater Antilles Caribbean during 2000–2015, and analyzed trend of vegetation patches without LCLUC to give prominence to climate impacts. We hypothesized that night warming and heavy cloudiness would reduce EVI in this mountainous tropical region. Over the 15 years, EVI decreased significantly in Jamaica, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico, but increased in Cuba partly due to its strong reforestation. Haiti had the largest decreasing trend because of continuous deforestation for charcoals. After LCLUC was excluded, EVI trend still varied greatly, decreasing in the windward but increasing in the leeward of Puerto Rico. Nighttime warming reinforced by spatially heterogeneous cloudiness was found to significantly and negatively correlate with EVI trend, and explained the spatial pattern of the latter. Although cooled daytime and increased rainfall might enhance EVI, nighttime warming dominated the climate impacts and differentiated the EVI trend. PMID:28120949

Dental occlusion analysis in the Mesolithic-Neolithic Age, Bronze Age, and Roman to Medieval times in Serbia: Tooth size comparison in skeletal samples.

PubMed

Pajević, Tina; Glišić, Branislav

2017-05-01

Anthropological studies have reported that tooth size decreases in the context of diet changes. Some investigations have found a reverse trend in tooth size from the prehistoric to the modern times. The aims of this study were to analyze tooth size in skeletal samples from Mesolithic-Neolithic Age, Bronze Age, and Roman to Medieval times to determine sex differences and establish a temporal trend in tooth size in the aforementioned periods. Well-preserved permanent teeth were included in the investigation. The mesiodistal (MD) diameter of all teeth and buccolingual (BL) diameter of the molars were measured. Effects of sex and site were tested by one-way ANOVA, and the combined effect of these factors was analyzed by UNIANOVA. Sexual dimorphism was present in the BL diameters of all molars and MD diameters of the upper first and the lower third molar. The lower canine was the most dimorphic tooth in the anterior region. The MD diameter of most teeth showed no significant difference between the groups, (sample from: Mesolithic-Neolithic Age-group 1; Bronze Age-group 2; Roman times-group 3; Medieval times-group 4), whereas the BL diameters of the upper second and the lower first molar were the largest in the first group. Multiple comparisons revealed a decrease in the BL diameter of the upper second and the lower first molar from the first to the later groups. Lower canine MD diameter exhibited an increase in the fourth group compared to the second group. On the basis of the MD diameter, a temporal trend could not be observed for most of the teeth. The lower canine exhibited an increase in the MD diameter from the prehistoric to the Medieval times. Changes of BL diameter were more homogeneous, suggesting that the temporal trend of molar size decreased from the Mesolithic-Neolithic to Medieval times in Serbia. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Spatial heterogeneity in statistical power to detect changes in lake area in Alaskan National Wildlife Refuges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nicol, Samuel; Roach, Jennifer K.; Griffith, Brad

2013-01-01

Over the past 50 years, the number and size of high-latitude lakes have decreased throughout many regions; however, individual lake trends have been variable in direction and magnitude. This spatial heterogeneity in lake change makes statistical detection of temporal trends challenging, particularly in small analysis areas where weak trends are difficult to separate from inter- and intra-annual variability. Factors affecting trend detection include inherent variability, trend magnitude, and sample size. In this paper, we investigated how the statistical power to detect average linear trends in lake size of 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 %/year was affected by the size of the analysis area and the number of years of monitoring in National Wildlife Refuges in Alaska. We estimated power for large (930–4,560 sq km) study areas within refuges and for 2.6, 12.9, and 25.9 sq km cells nested within study areas over temporal extents of 4–50 years. We found that: (1) trends in study areas could be detected within 5–15 years, (2) trends smaller than 2.0 %/year would take >50 years to detect in cells within study areas, and (3) there was substantial spatial variation in the time required to detect change among cells. Power was particularly low in the smallest cells which typically had the fewest lakes. Because small but ecologically meaningful trends may take decades to detect, early establishment of long-term monitoring will enhance power to detect change. Our results have broad applicability and our method is useful for any study involving change detection among variable spatial and temporal extents.

Temporal trends in the use of intra-aortic balloon pump associated with percutaneous coronary intervention in the United States, 1998–2008

PubMed Central

Patel, Hiren; Shivaraju, Anupama; Fonarow, Gregg C.; Xie, Hui; Gao, Weihua; Shroff, Adhir R.; Vidovich, Mladen I.

2014-01-01

Background With conflicting evidence regarding the usefulness of intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP), reports of IABP use in the United States (US) have been inconsistent. Our objective was to examine trends in IABP usage in percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in the US, and to evaluate the association of IABP use with mortality. Methods Retrospective, observational study using patient data obtained from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) database from 1998 to 2008. Patients undergoing any PCI (1,552,602 procedures) for a primary diagnosis of symptomatic coronary artery disease (CAD) and acute coronary syndrome (ACS), including non-ST elevation MI (NSTEMI) and ST elevation MI (STEMI), were evaluated. Results The overall use of IABP significantly decreased during the study period from 0.99% in 1998 to 0.36% in 2008 (univariate and multivariate p for trend <.0001). Patients who received IABP had substantially higher rates of shock compared to those who did not receive IABP (38.09% vs. 0.70%, p<.0001), which was associated with markedly higher in-hospital mortality rates (20.31% vs. 0.72%, p<.0001). However, IABP use significantly decreased in patients with shock (36.5% to 13.4%) and AMI (2.23% to 0.84%) (univariate and multivariate p for trend for both <.0001). A temporal reduction in all-cause PCI-associated mortality from 1.1% in 1998 to 0.86% in 2008 (univariate and multivariate p for trend <.0001) was also observed. Conclusions The utilization of IABP associated with PCI significantly decreased between 1998 and 2008 in the US, even amongst patients with acute myocardial infarction and shock. PMID:25173549

Temporal trends of Cd, Cu, Hg, Pb and Zn in mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis) from the Spanish North-Atlantic coast 1991-1999.

PubMed

Besada, V; Fumega, J; Vaamonde, A

2002-04-15

Temporal trends for heavy metals (Cd, Cu, Hg, Pb and Zn) in mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis) from the Galician and Cantabrian areas in Spain, where samples were yearly collected from 1991 to 1999, are presented. This study was carried out by the Centro Oceanográfico de Vigo of the Instituto Español de Oceanografia (I.E.O.) as part of the Spanish contribution to the Joint Assessment and Monitoring Programme (JAMP) of the OSPAR Convention. The experimental work and subsequent statistical treatment, following OSPAR procedures and guidelines, are described. In order to carry out the statistical treatment of the data, median values of the different shell length classes were used for each contaminant, year and area. The Kendall T-b correlation coefficient was used with the purpose of demonstrating the existence of a downward significant temporal trend in the pollution levels, according to the advice of ICES Working Group on Statistical Aspects of Environmental Monitoring. A decrease of copper levels was detected in Vigo, Pontevedra and Arosa, of mercury in Pontevedra and A Coruña, of lead in Vigo, Pontevedra, A Coruña and Bilbao and of zinc in Pontevedra and A Coruña. However, a cadmium positive trend was registered at Ria de Vigo. No significant trends were detected in the other cases.

Gas-phase polychlorinated biphenyl and hexachlorocyclohexane concentrations near the Great Lakes: a historical perspective.

PubMed

Buehler, Stephanie S; Basu, Ilora; Hites, Ronald A

2002-12-01

The Integrated Atmospheric Deposition Network (IADN) has been measuring gas-phase, polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentrations at sites near Lakes Michigan and Superior for over a decade. Data through 2000 were used in this study to investigate PCB temporal trends in the Great Lakes atmosphere. Decreasing trends were found at both sites, and half-lives of approximately 20 yr were calculated using IADN data. However, when these data were supplemented by historical data for Lakes Michigan and Superior dating back to 1977, half-lives dropped to 10 and 6 yr, respectively. These latter half-lives agreed well with half-lives in other environmental compartments. Exponential curves fitted to the historical and IADN data indicated little decline in PCB concentrations in the basin since the mid-1990s. A similar historical analysis of alpha-and gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) data indicated that IADN data were the best predictor of trends, resulting in half-lives of around 4 yr for both compounds. Gamma-HCH concentrations, however, have shown little decline in recent years, most likely because of its continuing use. PCB and alpha-HCH temporal trends indicated that bans on these substances have helped to remove them from the atmosphere. This work also showed that decades of data may be necessary to properly interpret long-term temporal trends in gas-phase organochlorine concentrations.

A power analysis for multivariate tests of temporal trend in species composition.

PubMed

Irvine, Kathryn M; Dinger, Eric C; Sarr, Daniel

2011-10-01

Long-term monitoring programs emphasize power analysis as a tool to determine the sampling effort necessary to effectively document ecologically significant changes in ecosystems. Programs that monitor entire multispecies assemblages require a method for determining the power of multivariate statistical models to detect trend. We provide a method to simulate presence-absence species assemblage data that are consistent with increasing or decreasing directional change in species composition within multiple sites. This step is the foundation for using Monte Carlo methods to approximate the power of any multivariate method for detecting temporal trends. We focus on comparing the power of the Mantel test, permutational multivariate analysis of variance, and constrained analysis of principal coordinates. We find that the power of the various methods we investigate is sensitive to the number of species in the community, univariate species patterns, and the number of sites sampled over time. For increasing directional change scenarios, constrained analysis of principal coordinates was as or more powerful than permutational multivariate analysis of variance, the Mantel test was the least powerful. However, in our investigation of decreasing directional change, the Mantel test was typically as or more powerful than the other models.

Identifying water-quality trends in the Trinity River, Texas, USA, 1969-1992, using sediment cores from Lake Livingston

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Metre, P.C.; Callender, E.

1996-01-01

Chemical analyses were done on cores of bottom sediment from three locations in Lake Livingston, a reservoir on the Trinity River in east Texas to identify trends in water quality in the Trinity River using the chemical record preserved in bottom sediments trapped by the reservoir. Sediment cores spanned the period from 1969, when the reservoir was impounded, to 1992, when the cores were collected. Chemical concentrations in reservoir sediment samples were compared to concentrations for 14 streambed sediment samples from the Trinity River Basin and to reported concentrations for soils in the eastern United States and shale. These comparisons indicate that sediments deposited in Lake Livingston are representative of the environmental setting of Lake Livingston within the Trinity River Basin. Vertical changes in concentrations within sediment cores indicate temporal trends of decreasing concentrations of lead, sodium, barium, and total DDT (DDT plus its metabolites DDD and DDE) in the Trinity River. Possible increasing temporal trends are indicated for chlordane and dieldrin. Each sediment-derived trend is related to trends in water quality in the Trinity River or known changes in environmental factors in its drainage basin or both.

Current status and temporal trend of heavy metals in farmland soil of the Yangtze River Delta Region: Field survey and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Shao, Diwei; Zhan, Yu; Zhou, Wenjun; Zhu, Lizhong

2016-12-01

While the spatial distributions of heavy metals in farmland soil of China have been comprehensively delineated, their temporal trends are rarely investigated but are important for environmental risk management. In this study, the current status and temporal trends of heavy metals in the farmland soil of Yangtze River Delta (YRD) were evaluated through field survey and meta-analysis. The field survey conducted in 2014 showed that the concentrations of Cd, Pb, Cu, Zn, and Ni in the farmland topsoil were 0.23 ± 0.14, 37.63 ± 15.60, 25.83 ± 41.62, 88.38 ± 43.30, and 29.21 ± 12.41 mg kg -1 (mean ± standard deviation), respectively. The heavy metals showed relatively higher concentrations on the borders among Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shanghai. In the meta-analysis, we selected 68 published studies related to heavy metal pollution in farmland topsoil of YRD from 2000 to the year (2014) when the field survey was conducted. The results show an increasing trend for Cd (p < 0.05; 0.0081 mg kg -1 year -1 ), a decreasing trend for Cu (p < 0.05; -0.80 mg kg -1 year -1 ), and no significant trend for Pb (p = 0.155), Zn (p = 0.746), and Ni (p = 0.305). The increasing rate of Cd from the meta-analysis is consistent with the rate (0.0013 mg kg -1 year -1 ) derived from the mass balance calculation for Cd, where atmospheric deposition originated from intensive coal combustion is considered as the main source of Cd in the topsoil. The decreasing trend of Cu is likely due to largely reduced application of copper-based agrochemicals. Environmental regulation and soil remediation are needed to protect food safety and ecosystem from heavy metal pollution, especially Cd. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal evolution of solar wind ion composition and their source coronal holes during the declining phase of cycle 23. I. Low-latitude extension of polar coronal holes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ko, Yuan-Kuen; Wang, Yi-Ming; Muglach, Karin

2014-06-01

We analyzed 27 solar wind (SW) intervals during the declining phase of cycle 23, whose source coronal holes (CHs) can be unambiguously identified and are associated with one of the polar CHs. We found that the SW ions have a temporal trend of decreasing ionization state, and such a trend is different between the slow and fast SW. The photospheric magnetic field, both inside and at the outside boundary of the CH, also exhibits a trend of decrease with time. However, EUV line emissions from different layers of the atmosphere exhibit different temporal trends. The coronal emission inside the CHmore » generally increases toward the CH boundary as the underlying field increases in strength and becomes less unipolar. In contrast, this relationship is not seen in the coronal emission averaged over the entire CH. For C and O SW ions that freeze-in at lower altitude, stronger correlation between their ionization states and field strength (both signed and unsigned) appears in the slow SW, while for Fe ions that freeze-in at higher altitude, stronger correlation appears in the fast SW. Such correlations are seen both inside the CH and at its boundary region. On the other hand, the coronal electron temperature correlates well with the SW ion composition only in the boundary region. Our analyses, although not able to determine the likely footpoint locations of the SW of different speeds, raise many outstanding questions for how the SW is heated and accelerated in response to the long-term evolution of the solar magnetic field.« less

Temporal Trends in Sexual Behavior among Men Who Have Sex with Men in the United States, 2002 to 2006–10

PubMed Central

Leichliter, Jami S.; Haderxhanaj, Laura T.; Chesson, Harrell W.; Aral, Sevgi O.

2017-01-01

Little is known about national trends in sexual behavior among MSM in the U.S. Data from the 2002 and 2006–10 National Survey of Family Growth were used to compare sexual behaviors of sexually active MSM. Mean number of recent male partners significantly decreased from 2.9 in 2002 to 2.1 in 2006–10 (p=.027), particularly among young MSM. Other sexual risk behaviors did not change or decreased over time. Our findings that sexual risk decreased as HIV and syphilis increased among MSM suggest that factors in addition to individual-level sexual risk should also be examined in relation to recent disease increases. PMID:23466645

Evaluation of an 18-year CMAQ simulation: Seasonal variations and long-term temporal changes in sulfate and nitrate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Civerolo, Kevin; Hogrefe, Christian; Zalewsky, Eric; Hao, Winston; Sistla, Gopal; Lynn, Barry; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Kinney, Patrick L.

2010-10-01

This paper compares spatial and seasonal variations and temporal trends in modeled and measured concentrations of sulfur and nitrogen compounds in wet and dry deposition over an 18-year period (1988-2005) over a portion of the northeastern United States. Substantial emissions reduction programs occurred over this time period, including Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 which primarily resulted in large decreases in sulfur dioxide (SO 2) emissions by 1995, and nitrogen oxide (NO x) trading programs which resulted in large decreases in warm season NO x emissions by 2004. Additionally, NO x emissions from mobile sources declined more gradually over this period. The results presented here illustrate the use of both operational and dynamic model evaluation and suggest that the modeling system largely captures the seasonal and long-term changes in sulfur compounds. The modeling system generally captures the long-term trends in nitrogen compounds, but does not reproduce the average seasonal variation or spatial patterns in nitrate.

The spatial and temporal variation of total suspended solid concentration in Pearl River Estuary during 1987-2015 based on remote sensing.

PubMed

Wang, Chongyang; Li, Weijiao; Chen, Shuisen; Li, Dan; Wang, Danni; Liu, Jia

2018-03-15

The movement and migration of total suspended solid (TSS) are the essential component of global material cycling and change. Based on the TSS concentrations retrieved from 112 scenes of Landsat remote sensing imageries during 1987-2015, the spatial and temporal variations of TSS concentration in high flow season and low flow seasons of six sub-regions (west shoal, west channel, middle shoal, east channel, east shoal and Pearl River Estuary Chinese White Dolphin National Nature Reserve and its adjacent waters (NNR)) of Pearl River Estuary (PRE) were analyzed and compared by statistical simulation. It was found that TSS concentrations in east and west shoals were about 23mg/L and 64mg/L higher than that of the middle shoal, respectively. There was a significant decreasing trend of TSS concentration from the northwest (223.7mg/L) to southeast (51.4mg/L) of study area, with an average reduction of 5.86mg/Lperkm, which mainly attributes to unique interaction of runoff and tide in PRE. In high flow season, there existed a significant and definite annual cycle period (5-8years) of TSS concentration change primarily responding to the periodic variation of precipitation. There were five full-fledged period changes of TSS detected in west shoal and west channel (the years of changes in 1988, 1994, 1998, 2003, 2010, 2015), while there were the last four cycle periods found in middle shoal, east channel, east shoal and NNR only. TSS concentrations in shoals and channels of PRE showed a significant decreased trend mainly due to the dam construction at the same time, with an average annual TSS concentration decrease of 5.7-10.1mg/L in high flow season from 1988 to 2015. There was no significant change trend of TSS concentration in NNR before 2003, but the TSS concentration decreased significantly after the establishment of the NNR since June 2003, with an average annual decrease of 9.7mg/L from 2004 to 2015. It was deduced that man-made protection measures had a great influence on the variation trend and intensity of TSS concentration in PRE, but had little effect on the cycle of TSS changes, indicating that the cyclical change is a very strong natural law. In low flow season, there was no significant change trend of TSS concentrations in PRE except that TSS concentrations in west channel and middle shoal showed a weak increasing trend (2.1mg/L and 2.9mg/L, respectively), which is probably because of controlled discharge for avoiding the intrusion of saltwater in PRE. Evidently, the change trend and cycle periods of TSS concentration in high- and low-flow seasons in six sub-regions of PRE had significant difference. The decreasing trend and cycle periods of TSS concentration mainly occurred in high flow season. The change trend and cycle periods of TSS concentration in low flow season was relatively small in PRE. The study shows that long series mapping of Landsat remote sensing images is an effective way to help understanding the spatial and temporal variation of TSS concentrations of estuaries and coasts, and to increase awareness of environmental change and human activity effects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and their methoxylated derivatives in pike from Swedish waters with emphasis on temporal trends, 1967-2000.

PubMed

Kierkegaard, A; Bignert, A; Sellström, U; Olsson, M; Asplund, L; Jansson, B; De Wit, C A

2004-07-01

Temporal trends of five tetra- to hexabromodiphenyl ethers [BDE47, BDE99, BDE100, BDE153 and BDE154) and two methoxy-tetraBDEs [6-methoxy-2,2',4,4'- tetraBDE (6-MeO-BDE47) and 2'-methoxy-2,3',4,5'- tetraBDE (2'-MeO-BDE68)] in pike from Lake Bolmen for the years 1967-2000, are presented. All BDE congeners show increasing trends up to the mid-1980s (Sigma5PBDE from 60 to 1600 pg/g wet weight in 1989, i.e. a more than 25-fold increase), and then decrease or level off. The decreasing trends of PBDEs after the 1980s were considerably slower in the present study than was found in a study of an environmental matrix from the Baltic Proper covering the same time period. This difference suggests local sources near Lake Bolmen. The MeO-BDEs show initially decreasing concentrations, which for 6-MeO-BDE47 continues until the early 1990s. The concentrations of 6-MeO-BDE47 in herring from five locations along the Swedish coast increased from south to north in the Baltic Sea. No correlation between the concentrations of the BDE congeners and the MeO-BDEs was observed, indicating sources other than PBDEs for these compounds. The presence of MeO-BDEs in fish from lakes with different characteristics suggests a natural production not favoured by eutrophication, or dependent on sampling season and geographical location.

Evaluating the spatiotemporal variations of water budget across China over 1951-2006 using IBIS model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Q.; Jiang, H.; Liu, J.; Wei, X.; Peng, C.; Fang, X.; Liu, S.; Zhou, G.; Yu, S.; Ju, W.

2010-01-01

The Integrated Biosphere Simulator is used to evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of the crucial hydrological variables [run-off and actual evapotranspiration (AET)] of the water balance across China for the period 1951–2006 including a precipitation analysis. Results suggest three major findings. First, simulated run-off captured 85% of the spatial variability and 80% of the temporal variability for 85 hydrological gauges across China. The mean relative errors were within 20% for 66% of the studied stations and within 30% for 86% of the stations. The Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients indicated that the quantity pattern of run-off was also captured acceptably except for some watersheds in southwestern and northwestern China. The possible reasons for underestimation of run-off in the Tibetan plateau include underestimation of precipitation and uncertainties in other meteorological data due to complex topography, and simplified representations of the soil depth attribute and snow processes in the model. Second, simulated AET matched reasonably with estimated values calculated as the residual of precipitation and run-off for watersheds controlled by the hydrological gauges. Finally, trend analysis based on the Mann–Kendall method indicated that significant increasing and decreasing patterns in precipitation appeared in the northwest part of China and the Yellow River region, respectively. Significant increasing and decreasing trends in AET were detected in the Southwest region and the Yangtze River region, respectively. In addition, the Southwest region, northern China (including the Heilongjiang, Liaohe, and Haihe Basins), and the Yellow River Basin showed significant decreasing trends in run-off, and the Zhemin hydrological region showed a significant increasing trend.

Trends in hydrometeorological conditions and stream water organic carbon in boreal forested catchments.

PubMed

Sarkkola, Sakari; Koivusalo, Harri; Laurén, Ari; Kortelainen, Pirkko; Mattsson, Tuija; Palviainen, Marjo; Piirainen, Sirpa; Starr, Mike; Finér, Leena

2009-12-15

Temporal trends in stream water total organic carbon (TOC) concentration and export were studied in 8 forested headwater catchments situated in eastern Finland. The Seasonal Kendall test was conducted to identify the trends and a mixed model regression analysis was used to describe how catchment characteristics and hydrometeorological variables (e.g. precipitation, air and stream water temperatures, and atmospheric deposition) related to the variation in the concentration and export of stream water TOC. The 8 catchments varied in size from 29 to 494 ha and in the proportion of peatland they contained, from 8 to 70%. Runoff and TOC concentration were monitored for 15-29 years (1979-2006). Trends and variation in TOC levels were analysed from annual and seasonal time series. Mean annual TOC concentration increased significantly in seven of the eight catchments. The trends were the strongest in spring and most apparent during the last decade of the study period. The slopes of the trends were generally smaller than the variation in TOC concentration between years and seasons and between catchments. The annual TOC export showed no clear trends and values were largely determined by the temporal variability in runoff. Annual runoff showed a decreasing trend in two of the eight catchments. Mean annual air and stream water temperatures showed increasing trends, most clearly seen in the summer and autumn series. According to our modeling results, stream water temperature, precipitation and peatland percentage were the most important variables explaining annual and most seasonal TOC concentrations. The atmospheric deposition of SO4, NH4, and NO3 decreased significantly over the study period, but no significant link with TOC concentration was found. Precipitation was the main hydrometeorological driver of the TOC export. We concluded that stream water TOC concentrations and exports are mainly driven by catchment characteristics and hydrometeorological factors rather than trends in atmospheric acid deposition.

PBDEs and PCBs in the liver of the St Lawrence Estuary beluga (Delphinapterus leucas): a comparison of levels and temporal trends with the blubber.

PubMed

Raach, Meriem; Lebeuf, Michel; Pelletier, Emilien

2011-03-01

Due to their lipophilic properties, persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are commonly assessed using the blubber of marine mammals. However, these chemicals are also accumulating in other tissues including the liver. Some pollutants, namely perfluorinated alkyl acids, are found predominately in the liver and blood of marine mammals, and thus monitored in those tissues. This raises the question whether any tissue would represent an identical trend of POPs in the SLE beluga. The current study reports the first temporal trends of PBDEs and PCBs in the liver of 65 SLE belugas. Neither ∑₇PBDEs nor major individual PBDE-homolog group concentrations showed significant trends between 1993 and 2007. Also, ∑₃₂PCBs did not change over years, although, tetra-, penta- and hepta-PCB decreased by 7.1, 6.8 and 8.5%, respectively, in males, whereas tetra-, penta- and octa-PCBs declined by 11, 12 and 12.9%, respectively, in females. In order to compare the distribution of POPs between liver and blubber, a lipid normalised concentration ratio R (blubber/liver) for PBDEs and PCBs was calculated for each individual beluga. For all PBDE and several PCB homolog groups, mean R values were not statistically different from unity indicating that the partitioning of these POPs is governed by the tissue lipid-content. Temporal trends of R ratios of PBDEs and PCBs were also examined. There were generally no significant temporal trends except for PBDEs in males where R increased in average by 12.7 ± 2.9% yearly. The stratification of the blubber into a metabolically active (inner) and less active layers (outer blubber) may result in a slower response time of the blubber (full depth) than the liver to the recent change of contamination in the environment and explain the time trend differences between both tissues. This study suggests that the liver is more representative of recent exposure to lipophilic contaminants.

Global Incidence and Mortality for Prostate Cancer: Analysis of Temporal Patterns and Trends in 36 Countries.

PubMed

Wong, Martin C S; Goggins, William B; Wang, Harry H X; Fung, Franklin D H; Leung, Colette; Wong, Samuel Y S; Ng, Chi Fai; Sung, Joseph J Y

2016-11-01

Prostate cancer (PCa) is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity globally, but its specific geographic patterns and temporal trends are under-researched. To test the hypotheses that PCa incidence is higher and PCa mortality is lower in countries with higher socioeconomic development, and that temporal trends for PCa incidence have increased while mortality has decreased over time. Data on age-standardized incidence and mortality rates in 2012 were retrieved from the GLOBOCAN database. Temporal patterns were assessed for 36 countries using data obtained from Cancer incidence in five continents volumes I-X and the World Health Organization mortality database. Correlations between incidence or mortality rates and socioeconomic indicators (human development index [HDI] and gross domestic product [GDP]) were evaluated. The average annual percent change in PCa incidence and mortality in the most recent 10 yr according to join-point regression. Reported PCa incidence rates varied more than 25-fold worldwide in 2012, with the highest incidence rates observed in Micronesia/Polynesia, the USA, and European countries. Mortality rates paralleled the incidence rates except for Africa, where PCa mortality rates were the highest. Countries with higher HDI (r=0.58) and per capita GDP (r=0.62) reported greater incidence rates. According to the most recent 10-yr temporal data available, most countries experienced increases in incidence, with sharp rises in incidence rates in Asia and Northern and Western Europe. A substantial reduction in mortality rates was reported in most countries, except in some Asian countries and Eastern Europe, where mortality increased. Data in regional registries could be underestimated. PCa incidence has increased while PCa mortality has decreased in most countries. The reported incidence was higher in countries with higher socioeconomic development. The incidence of prostate cancer has shown high variations geographically and over time, with smaller variations in mortality. Copyright © 2016 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exploring spatial-temporal dynamics of fire regime features in mainland Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez-Ruano, Adrián; Rodrigues Mimbrero, Marcos; de la Riva Fernández, Juan

2017-10-01

This paper explores spatial-temporal dynamics in fire regime features, such as fire frequency, burnt area, large fires and natural- and human-caused fires, as an essential part of fire regime characterization. Changes in fire features are analysed at different spatial - regional and provincial/NUTS3 - levels, together with summer and winter temporal scales, using historical fire data from Spain for the period 1974-2013. Temporal shifts in fire features are investigated by means of change point detection procedures - Pettitt test, AMOC (at most one change), PELT (pruned exact linear time) and BinSeg (binary segmentation) - at a regional level to identify changes in the time series of the features. A trend analysis was conducted using the Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope tests at both the regional and NUTS3 level. Finally, we applied a principal component analysis (PCA) and varimax rotation to trend outputs - mainly Sen's slope values - to summarize overall temporal behaviour and to explore potential links in the evolution of fire features. Our results suggest that most fire features show remarkable shifts between the late 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. Mann-Kendall outputs revealed negative trends in the Mediterranean region. Results from Sen's slope suggest high spatial and intra-annual variability across the study area. Fire activity related to human sources seems to be experiencing an overall decrease in the northwestern provinces, particularly pronounced during summer. Similarly, the Hinterland and the Mediterranean coast are gradually becoming less fire affected. Finally, PCA enabled trends to be synthesized into four main components: winter fire frequency (PC1), summer burnt area (PC2), large fires (PC3) and natural fires (PC4).

Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.

2014-02-01

The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the Oscillation indices for North Carolina.

Temporal trends in dietary supplement prescriptions of United States military service members suggest a decrease in pyridoxine and increase in vitamin D supplements from 2005 to 2013.

PubMed

Knapik, Joseph J; T Jean, Rosenie; Austin, Krista G; Steelman, Ryan A; Gannon, Julia; Farina, Emily K; Lieberman, Harris R

2016-10-01

Dietary supplements (DSs) can be obtained over-the-counter but can also be prescribed by health-care providers for therapeutic reasons. Few studies have documented this later source despite the fact that 79% of physicians and 82% of nurses have recommended DSs to patients. This investigation assessed prevalence and temporal trends in oral DS prescriptions filled by all United States service members (SMs) from 2005 to 2013 (n = 1 427 080 ± 22 139, mean ± standard deviation (SD)/y). We hypothesize that there would be temporal variations in specific types of DSs. Data obtained from Department of Defense Pharmacy Data Transaction System were grouped by American Hospital Formulary System pharmacologic-therapeutic classifications and prevalence examined over time. About 11% of SMs filled one or more DS prescriptions of 235 180 ± 4926 (mean ± SD) prescriptions/y over the 9-year period. Curve-fitting techniques indicated significant linear declines over time for multivitamins (P = .004), iron preparations (P < .001), antacids (P < .001), and vitamin B and B complex vitamins (P < .001). There were significant quadratic trends indicating a rise in early years followed by a leveling off in later years for replacement preparations (P < .001) and vitamin C (P < .001). There were significant quadratic trends (P < .001) for vitamin E indicating a decline in early years and leveling off in later years, and vitamin D indicating little change in early years followed by a large rise subsequently (P < .001). This study identified temporal trends in specific DS categories that may be associated with changing perceptions of prescribers and/or patients of the appropriate roles of DSs in medicine and public health. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Evaluating lake stratification and temporal trends by using near-continuous water-quality data from automated profiling systems for water years 2005-09, Lake Mead, Arizona and Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Veley, Ronald J.; Moran, Michael J.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service and Southern Nevada Water Authority, collected near-continuous depth-dependent water-quality data at Lake Mead, Arizona and Nevada, as part of a multi-agency monitoring network maintained to provide resource managers with basic data and to gain a better understanding of the hydrodynamics of the lake. Water-quality data-collection stations on Lake Mead were located in shallow water (less than 20 meters) at Las Vegas Bay (Site 3) and Overton Arm, and in deep water (greater than 20 meters) near Sentinel Island and at Virgin and Temple Basins. At each station, near-continual depth-dependent water-quality data were collected from October 2004 through September 2009. The data were collected by using automatic profiling systems equipped with multiparameter water-quality sondes. The sondes had sensors for temperature, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, pH, turbidity, and depth. Data were collected every 6 hours at 2-meter depth intervals (for shallow-water stations) or 5-meter depth intervals (for deep-water stations) beginning at 1 meter below water surface. Data were analyzed to determine water-quality conditions related to stratification of the lake and temporal trends in water-quality parameters. Three water-quality parameters were the main focus of these analyses: temperature, specific conductance, and dissolved oxygen. Statistical temporal-trend analyses were performed for a single depth at shallow-water stations [Las Vegas Bay (Site 3) and Overton Arm] and for thermally-stratified lake layers at deep-water stations (Sentinel Island and Virgin Basin). The limited period of data collection at the Temple Basin station prevented the application of statistical trend analysis. During the summer months, thermal stratification was not observed at shallow-water stations, nor were major maxima or minima observed for specific-conductance or dissolved-oxygen profiles. A clearly-defined thermocline and well-defined maxima and minima in specific-conductance and dissolved-oxygen profiles were observed at deep-water stations during the summer months. Specific-conductance maxima were likely the result of inflow of water from either the Las Vegas Wash or Muddy/Virgin Rivers or both, while the minima were likely the result of inflow of water from the Colorado River. Maxima and minima for dissolved oxygen were likely the result of primary productivity blooms and their subsequent decay. Temporal-trend analyses indicated that specific conductance decreased at all stations over the period of record, except for Las Vegas Bay (Site 3), where specific conductance increased. Temperature also decreased over the period of record at deep-water stations for certain lake layers. Decreasing temperature and specific conductance at deep-water stations is the result of decreasing values in these parameters in water coming from the Colorado River. Quagga mussels (Dreissena rostriformis bugensis), however, could play a role in trends of decreasing specific conductance through incorporation of calcite in their shells. Trends of decreasing turbidity and pH at deep-water stations support the hypothesis that quagga mussels could be having an effect on the physical properties and water chemistry of Lake Mead. Unlike other stations, Las Vegas Bay (Site 3) had increasing specific conductance and is interpreted as the result of lowering lake levels decreasing the volume of lake water available for mixing and dilution of the high-conductance water coming from Las Vegas Wash. Dissolved oxygen increased over the period of record in some lake layers at the deep-water stations. Increasing dissolved oxygen at deep-water stations is believed to result, in part, from a reduction of phosphorus entering Lake Mead and the concomitant reduction of biological oxygen demand.

Remarkably constant PAH concentrations in Swiss soils over the last 30 years.

PubMed

Gubler, Andreas; Wächter, Daniel; Blum, Franziska; Bucheli, Thomas D

2015-10-01

Although polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) are of concern due to their carcinogenic, mutagenic, and teratogenic properties and their ubiquitous occurrence in environmental compartments, only few studies assessed the temporal evolutions of PAH contents of soils over extended time periods. The Swiss Soil Monitoring Network NABO runs long-term monitoring sites resampled every five years since the 1980s. In the present study, soil (0-20 cm) samples collected from 1985 through 2013 at 25 selected monitoring sites were analysed for the 16 priority PAH according to the U.S. EPA and five PAH marker substances. We observed divergent trends for light PAH, such as naphthalene and phenanthrene, compared with heavy PAH, such as benzo[a]pyrene and benzo[ghi]perylene. Whereas the former showed decreasing concentrations since the late 1980s, no significant trends were found for the latter. Furthermore, the analyses showed that naphthalene contents decreased most strongly at rural sites featuring low population densities, while phenanthrene contents generally decreased most strongly at semi-rural sites. The deviating evolutions of light and heavy PAH were mainly attributed to their differing physico-chemical properties. Temporal evolutions in soils contradict emission inventory data suggesting PAH emissions to decline since the 1980s.

Temporal trends in 137Cs concentrations in the bark, sapwood, heartwood, and whole wood of four tree species in Japanese forests from 2011 to 2016.

PubMed

Ohashi, Shinta; Kuroda, Katsushi; Takano, Tsutomu; Suzuki, Youki; Fujiwara, Takeshi; Abe, Hisashi; Kagawa, Akira; Sugiyama, Masaki; Kubojima, Yoshitaka; Zhang, Chunhua; Yamamoto, Koichi

2017-11-01

To understand the changes in radiocesium ( 137 Cs) concentrations in stem woods after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident, we investigated 137 Cs concentrations in the bark, sapwood, heartwood, and whole wood of four major tree species at multiple sites with different levels of radiocesium deposition from the FDNPP accident since 2011 (since 2012 at some sites): Japanese cedar at four sites, hinoki cypress and Japanese konara oak at two sites, and Japanese red pine at one site. Our previous report on 137 Cs concentrations in bark and whole wood samples collected from 2011 to 2015 suggested that temporal variations were different among sites even within the same species. In the present study, we provided data on bark and whole wood samples in 2016 and separately measured 137 Cs concentrations in sapwood and heartwood samples from 2011 to 2016; we further discussed temporal trends in 137 Cs concentrations in each part of tree stems, particularly those in 137 Cs distributions between sapwood and heartwood, in relation to their species and site dependencies. Temporal trends in bark and whole wood samples collected from 2011 to 2016 were consistent with those reported in samples collected from 2011 to 2015. Temporal variations in 137 Cs concentrations in barks showed either a decreasing trend or no clear trend, implying that 137 Cs deposition in barks is inhomogeneous and that decontamination is relatively slow in some cases. Temporal trends in 137 Cs concentrations in sapwood, heartwood, and whole wood were different among species and also among sites within the same species. Relatively common trends within the same species, which were increasing, were observed in cedar heartwood, and in oak sapwood and whole wood. On the other hand, the ratio of 137 Cs concentration in heartwood to that in sapwood (fresh weight basis) was commonly increased to more than 2 in cedar, although distinct temporal trends were not found in the other species, for which the ratio was around 1 in cypress and pine and below 0.5 in oak, suggesting that 137 Cs transfer from sapwood to heartwood shows species dependency. Consequently, the species dependency of 137 Cs transfer within the tree appears easily, while that from the environment to the trees can be masked by various factors. Thus, prediction of 137 Cs concentrations in stem wood should be carried out carefully as it still requires investigations at multiple sites with a larger sample size and an understanding of the species-specific 137 Cs transfer mechanism. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Temporal trends of mercury in eggs of five sympatrically breeding seabird species in the Canadian Arctic.

PubMed

Braune, Birgit M; Gaston, Anthony J; Mallory, Mark L

2016-07-01

We compared temporal trends of total mercury (Hg) in eggs of five seabird species breeding at Prince Leopold Island in the Canadian high Arctic. As changes in trophic position over time have the potential to influence contaminant temporal trends, Hg concentrations were adjusted for trophic position (measured as δ(15)N). Adjusted Hg concentrations in eggs of thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia) and northern fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis) increased from 1975 to the 1990s, followed by a plateauing of levels from the 1990s to 2014. Trends of adjusted Hg concentrations in eggs of murres, fulmars, black guillemots (Cepphus grylle) and black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) had negative slopes between 1993 and 2013. Adjusted Hg concentrations in glaucous gull (Larus hyperboreus) eggs decreased by 50% from 1993 to 2003 before starting to increase again. Glaucous gull eggs had the highest Hg concentrations followed by black guillemot eggs, and black-legged kittiwake eggs had the lowest concentrations consistently in the five years compared between 1993 and 2013. Based on published toxicological thresholds for Hg in eggs, there is little concern for adverse reproductive effects due to Hg exposure in these birds, although the levels in glaucous gull eggs warrant future scrutiny given the increase in Hg concentrations observed in recent years. There is evidence that the Hg trends observed reflect changing anthropogenic Hg emissions. It remains unclear, however, to what extent exposure to Hg on the overwintering grounds influences the Hg trends observed in the seabird eggs at Prince Leopold Island. Future research should focus on determining the extent to which Hg exposure on the breeding grounds versus the overwintering areas contribute to the trends observed in the eggs. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal trends in nitrate and selected pesticides in mid-atlantic ground water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Debrewer, L.M.; Ator, S.W.; Denver, J.M.

2008-01-01

Evaluating long-term temporal trends in regional ground-water quality is complicated by variable hydrogeologic conditions and typically slow flow, and such trends have rarely been directly measured. Ground-water samples were collected over near-decadal and annual intervals from unconfined aquifers in agricultural areas of the Mid-Atlantic region, including fractured carbonate rocks in the Great Valley, Potomac River Basin, and unconsolidated sediments on the Delmarva Peninsula. Concentrations of nitrate and selected pesticides and degradates were compared among sampling events and to apparent recharge dates. Observed temporal trends are related to changes in land use and chemical applications, and to hydrogeology and climate. Insignificant differences in nitrate concentrations in the Great Valley between 1993 and 2002 are consistent with relatively steady fertilizer application during respective recharge periods and are likely related to drought conditions in the later sampling period. Detecting trends in Great Valley ground water is complicated by long open boreholes characteristic of wells sampled in this setting which facilitate significant ground-water mixing. Decreasing atrazine and prometon concentrations, however, reflect reported changes in usage. On the Delmarva Peninsula between 1988 and 2001, median nitrate concentrations increased 2 mg per liter in aerobic ground water, reflecting increasing fertilizer applications. Correlations between selected pesticide compounds and apparent recharge date are similarly related to changing land use and chemical application. Observed trends in the two settings demonstrate the importance of considering hydrogeology and recharge date along with, changing land and chemical uses when interpreting trends in regional ground-water quality. Copyright ?? 2008 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Stroke incidence is decreasing in whites but not in blacks: a population-based estimate of temporal trends in stroke incidence from the Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky Stroke Study.

PubMed

Kleindorfer, Dawn O; Khoury, Jane; Moomaw, Charles J; Alwell, Kathleen; Woo, Daniel; Flaherty, Matthew L; Khatri, Pooja; Adeoye, Opeolu; Ferioli, Simona; Broderick, Joseph P; Kissela, Brett M

2010-07-01

Although other studies (in largely white populations) have found that stroke incidence declined during the 1990s, we previously reported that stroke incidence in our population (18% of which was black) did not change during that decade and that incidence rates in blacks were significantly higher than in whites. We sought to update temporal trends in stroke incidence by adding new data obtained from our large, biracial population in 2005. The objective of this study was to examine temporal trends in stroke incidence and case-fatality within a large biracial population over time by comparing stroke incidence rates from 1993 to 1994, 1999, and 2005. Within the Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky population of 1.3 million, all strokes among area residents were ascertained at all local hospitals during July 1993 to June 19/94 and calendar years 1999 and 2005. A sampling scheme was used to ascertain cases in the out-of-hospital setting. Only first-ever strokes were included in this analysis. Race-specific incidence rates, standardized to the 2000 US Census population, and case-fatality rates were calculated. The number of physician-confirmed first-ever strokes in patients >or=20 years of age was 1942 in 1993 to 1994, 2041 in 1999, and 1921 in 2005. In all study periods, blacks had higher stroke incidence than whites, and case-fatality rates were similar between races. In contrast to previous study periods, we found a significant decrease in overall stroke incidence in 2005. When stratified by race and stroke subtype, this change was driven by a decrease in ischemic stroke incidence among whites, whereas ischemic stroke incidence in blacks was unchanged. Hemorrhagic stroke incidence was unchanged in both races. For the first time, we report a significant decrease in stroke incidence within our population, which is consistent with other reports in the literature. This decrease was found only among whites, which suggests a worsening of the racial disparity in stroke incidence.

Stroke Incidence is Decreasing in Whites, but Not in Blacks: A Population-Based Estimate of Temporal Trends in Stroke Incidence from the Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky Stroke Study

PubMed Central

Kleindorfer, Dawn; Khoury, Jane; Moomaw, Charles J.; Alwell, Kathleen; Woo, Daniel; Flaherty, Matthew L.; Khatri, Pooja; Adeoye, Opeolu; Ferioli, Simona; Broderick, Joseph P.; Kissela, Brett M.

2010-01-01

Context While other studies (in largely white populations) have found that stroke incidence declined during the 1990s, we previously reported that stroke incidence in our population (18% of which was black) did not change during that decade and that incidence rates in blacks were significantly higher than in whites. We sought to update temporal trends in stroke incidence by adding new data obtained from our large, bi-racial population in 2005. Objective To examine temporal trends in stroke incidence and case fatality within a large, biracial population over time, by comparing stroke incidence rates from 1993/94, 1999, and 2005. Design, Setting, and Participants Within the Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky population of 1.3 million, all strokes among area residents were ascertained at all local hospitals during 7/93-6/94 and calendar years 1999 and 2005. A sampling scheme was used to ascertain cases in the out-of-hospital setting. Only first-ever strokes were included in this analysis. Race-specific incidence rates, standardized to the 2000 U.S. Census population, and case-fatality rates were calculated. Results The number of physician-confirmed first-ever strokes in patients ≥20 years of age was 1,942 in 1993/94, 2,041 in 1999, and 1,921 in 2005. In all study periods, blacks had higher stroke incidence than whites, and case fatality rates were similar between races. In contrast to previous study periods, we found a significant decrease in overall stroke incidence in 2005. When stratified by race and stroke subtype, this change was driven by a decrease in ischemic stroke incidence among whites, while ischemic stroke incidence in blacks was unchanged. Hemorrhagic stroke incidence was unchanged in both races. Discussion For the first time, we report a significant decrease in stroke incidence within our population, which is consistent with other reports in the literature. This decrease was found only among whites, which suggests a worsening of the racial disparity in stroke incidence. PMID:20489177

Spatiotemporal Risk of Bacillary Dysentery and Sensitivity to Meteorological Factors in Hunan Province, China.

PubMed

Xu, Chengdong; Xiao, Gexin; Wang, Jinfeng; Zhang, Xiangxue; Liang, Jinjun

2017-12-29

Bacillary dysentery remains a public health concern in the world. Hunan Province is one of the provinces having the highest risk of bacillary dysentery in China, however, the spatial-temporal distribution, variation of bacillary dysentery and sensitivity to meteorological factors in there are unclear. In this paper, a Bayesian space-time hierarchical model (BSTHM) was used to detect space-time variation, and effects of meteorological factors between 2010 and 2015. The risk of bacillary dysentery showed apparent spatial-temporal heterogeneity. The highest risk occurred in the summer season. Economically undeveloped mountainous areas in the west and south of the province had the highest incidence rates. Twenty three (18.9%) and 20 (16.4%) counties were identified as hot and cold spots, respectively. Among the hotspots, 11 counties (47.8%) exhibited a rapidly decreasing trend, suggesting they may become low-risk areas in the future. Of the cold spot counties, six (30%) showed a slowly decreasing trend, and may have a higher risk in the future. Among meteorological factors, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed all played a significant role in the spatial-temporal distribution of bacillary dysentery risk. These findings can contribute to the implementation of an early warning system for controlling and preventing bacillary dysentery.

Spatiotemporal Risk of Bacillary Dysentery and Sensitivity to Meteorological Factors in Hunan Province, China

PubMed Central

Xu, Chengdong; Xiao, Gexin; Wang, Jinfeng; Zhang, Xiangxue; Liang, Jinjun

2017-01-01

Bacillary dysentery remains a public health concern in the world. Hunan Province is one of the provinces having the highest risk of bacillary dysentery in China, however, the spatial-temporal distribution, variation of bacillary dysentery and sensitivity to meteorological factors in there are unclear. In this paper, a Bayesian space-time hierarchical model (BSTHM) was used to detect space-time variation, and effects of meteorological factors between 2010 and 2015. The risk of bacillary dysentery showed apparent spatial-temporal heterogeneity. The highest risk occurred in the summer season. Economically undeveloped mountainous areas in the west and south of the province had the highest incidence rates. Twenty three (18.9%) and 20 (16.4%) counties were identified as hot and cold spots, respectively. Among the hotspots, 11 counties (47.8%) exhibited a rapidly decreasing trend, suggesting they may become low-risk areas in the future. Of the cold spot counties, six (30%) showed a slowly decreasing trend, and may have a higher risk in the future. Among meteorological factors, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed all played a significant role in the spatial-temporal distribution of bacillary dysentery risk. These findings can contribute to the implementation of an early warning system for controlling and preventing bacillary dysentery. PMID:29286297

Spatio-temporal variation of anthropogenic marine debris on Chilean beaches.

PubMed

Hidalgo-Ruz, Valeria; Honorato-Zimmer, Daniela; Gatta-Rosemary, Magdalena; Nuñez, Paloma; Hinojosa, Iván A; Thiel, Martin

2018-01-01

We examined the hypothesis that in an emerging economy such as Chile the abundances of Anthropogenic Marine Debris (AMD) on beaches are increasing over time. The citizen science program Científicos de la Basura ("Litter Scientists") conducted three national surveys (2008, 2012 and 2016) to determine AMD composition, abundance, spatial patterns and temporal trends. AMD was found on all beaches along the entire Chilean coast. Highest percentages of AMD in all surveys were plastics and cigarette butts, which can be attributed to local sources (i.e. beach users). The Antofagasta region in northern Chile had the highest abundance of AMD compared with all other zones. Higher abundances of AMD were found at the upper stations from almost all zones. No significant tendency of increasing or decreasing AMD densities was observed during the 8years covered by our study, which suggests that economic development alone cannot explain temporal trends in AMD densities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sediment cores as archives of historical changes in floodplain lake hydrology.

PubMed

Lintern, Anna; Leahy, Paul J; Zawadzki, Atun; Gadd, Patricia; Heijnis, Henk; Jacobsen, Geraldine; Connor, Simon; Deletic, Ana; McCarthy, David T

2016-02-15

Anthropogenic activities are contributing to the changing hydrology of rivers, often resulting in their degradation. Understanding the drivers and nature of these changes is critical for the design and implementation of effective mitigation strategies for these systems. However, this can be hindered by gaps in historical measured flow data. This study therefore aims to use sediment cores to identify historical hydrological changes within a river catchment. Sediment cores from two floodplain lakes (billabongs) in the urbanised Yarra River catchment (Melbourne, South-East Australia) were collected and high resolution images, trends in magnetic susceptibility and trends in elemental composition through the sedimentary records were obtained. These were used to infer historical changes in river hydrology to determine both average trends in hydrology (i.e., coarse temporal resolution) as well as discrete flood layers in the sediment cores (i.e., fine temporal resolution). Through the 20th century, both billabongs became increasingly disconnected from the river, as demonstrated by the decreasing trends in magnetic susceptibility, particle size and inorganic matter in the cores. Additionally the number of discrete flood layers decreased up the cores. These reconstructed trends correlate with measured flow records of the river through the 20th century, which validates the methodology that has been used in this study. Not only does this study provide evidence on how natural catchments can be affected by land-use intensification and urbanisation, but it also introduces a general analytical framework that could be applied to other river systems to assist in the design of hydrological management strategies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Monitoring, analyzing and simulating of spatial-temporal changes of landscape pattern over mining area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Pei; Han, Ruimei; Wang, Shuangting

2014-11-01

According to the merits of remotely sensed data in depicting regional land cover and Land changes, multi- objective information processing is employed to remote sensing images to analyze and simulate land cover in mining areas. In this paper, multi-temporal remotely sensed data were selected to monitor the pattern, distri- bution and trend of LUCC and predict its impacts on ecological environment and human settlement in mining area. The monitor, analysis and simulation of LUCC in this coal mining areas are divided into five steps. The are information integration of optical and SAR data, LULC types extraction with SVM classifier, LULC trends simulation with CA Markov model, landscape temporal changes monitoring and analysis with confusion matrixes and landscape indices. The results demonstrate that the improved data fusion algorithm could make full use of information extracted from optical and SAR data; SVM classifier has an efficient and stable ability to obtain land cover maps, which could provide a good basis for both land cover change analysis and trend simulation; CA Markov model is able to predict LULC trends with good performance, and it is an effective way to integrate remotely sensed data with spatial-temporal model for analysis of land use / cover change and corresponding environmental impacts in mining area. Confusion matrixes are combined with landscape indices to evaluation and analysis show that, there was a sustained downward trend in agricultural land and bare land, but a continues growth trend tendency in water body, forest and other lands, and building area showing a wave like change, first increased and then decreased; mining landscape has undergone a from small to large and large to small process of fragmentation, agricultural land is the strongest influenced landscape type in this area, and human activities are the primary cause, so the problem should be pay more attentions by government and other organizations.

Trends of Occupational Fatalities Involving Machines, United States, 1992–2010

PubMed Central

Marsh, Suzanne M.; Fosbroke, David E.

2016-01-01

Background This paper describes trends of occupational machine-related fatalities from 1992–2010. We examine temporal patterns by worker demographics, machine types (e.g., stationary, mobile), and industries. Methods We analyzed fatalities from Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries data provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. We used injury source to identify machine-related incidents and Poisson regression to assess trends over the 19-year period. Results There was an average annual decrease of 2.8% in overall machine-related fatality rates from 1992 through 2010. Mobile machine-related fatality rates decreased an average of 2.6% annually and stationary machine-related rates decreased an average of 3.5% annually. Groups that continued to be at high risk included older workers; self-employed; and workers in agriculture/forestry/fishing, construction, and mining. Conclusion Addressing dangers posed by tractors, excavators, and other mobile machines needs to continue. High-risk worker groups should receive targeted information on machine safety. PMID:26358658

A comprehensive overview of the spatial and temporal variability of apple bud dormancy release and blooming phenology in Western Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legave, Jean Michel; Blanke, Michael; Christen, Danilo; Giovannini, Daniela; Mathieu, Vincent; Oger, Robert

2013-03-01

In the current context of global warming, an analysis is required of spatially-extensive and long-term blooming data in fruit trees to make up for insufficient information on regional-scale blooming changes and determinisms that are key to the phenological adaptation of these species. We therefore analysed blooming dates over long periods at climate-contrasted sites in Western Europe, focusing mainly on the Golden Delicious apple that is grown worldwide. On average, blooming advances were more pronounced in northern continental (10 days) than in western oceanic (6-7 days) regions, while the shortest advance was found on the Mediterranean coastline. Temporal trends toward blooming phase shortenings were also observed in continental regions. These regional differences in temporal variability across Western Europe resulted in a decrease in spatial variability, i.e. shorter time intervals between blooming dates in contrasted regions (8-10-day decrease for full bloom between Mediterranean and continental regions). Fitted sequential models were used to reproduce phenological changes. Marked trends toward shorter simulated durations of forcing period (bud growth from dormancy release to blooming) and high positive correlations between these durations and observed blooming dates support the notion that blooming advances and shortenings are mainly due to faster satisfaction of the heating requirement. However, trends toward later dormancy releases were also noted in oceanic and Mediterranean regions. This could tend toward blooming delays and explain the shorter advances in these regions despite similar or greater warming. The regional differences in simulated chilling and forcing periods were consistent with the regional differences in temperature increases.

Spatial and temporal trends in occurrence of emerging and legacy contaminants in the Lower Columbia River 2008-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alvarez, David A.; Perkins, Stephanie D.; Nilsen, Elena B.; Morace, Jennifer L.

2014-01-01

The Lower Columbia River in Oregon and Washington, USA, is an important resource for aquatic and terrestrial organisms, agriculture, and commerce. An 86-mile stretch of the river was sampled over a 3 year period in order to determine the spatial and temporal trends in the occurrence and concentration of water-borne organic contaminants. Sampling occurred at 10 sites along this stretch and at 1 site on the Willamette River using the semipermeable membrane device (SPMD) and the polar organic chemical integrative sampler (POCIS) passive samplers. Contaminant profiles followed the predicted trends of lower numbers of detections and associated concentrations in the rural areas to higher numbers and concentrations at the more urbanized sites. Industrial chemicals, plasticizers, and PAHs were present at the highest concentrations. Differences in concentrations between sampling periods were related to the amount of rainfall during the sampling period. In general, water concentrations of wastewater-related contaminants decreased and concentrations of legacy contaminants slightly increased with increasing rainfall amounts.

Bi-phasic trends in mercury concentrations in blood of Wisconsin common loons during 1992–2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meyer, Michael W.; Rasmussen, Paul W.; Watras, Carl J.; Fevold, Brick M.; Kenow, Kevin P.

2011-01-01

Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) assessed the ecological risk of mercury (Hg) in aquatic systems by monitoring common loon (Gavia immer) population dynamics and blood Hg concentrations. We report temporal trends in blood Hg concentrations based on 334 samples collected from adults recaptured in subsequent years (resampled 2-9 times) and from 421 blood samples of chicks collected at lakes resampled 2-8 times 1992-2010.. Temporal trends were identified with generalized additive mixed effects models (GAMMs) and mixed effects models to account for the potential lack of independence among observations from the same loon or same lake. Trend analyses indicated that Hg concentrations in the blood of Wisconsin loons declined over the period 1992-2000, and increased during 2002-2010, but not to the level observed in the early 1990s. The best fitting linear mixed effects model included separate trends for the two time periods. The estimated trend in Hg concentration among the adult loon population during 1992-2000 was -2.6% per year and the estimated trend during 2002-2010 was +1.8% per year; chick blood Hg concentrations decreased by -6.5% per year during 1992-2000, but increased 1.8% per year during 2002-2010. This bi-phasic pattern is similar to trends observed for concentrations of methylmercury (meHg) and SO4 in lake water of a well studied seepage lake (Little Rock Lake, Vilas County) within our study area. A cause-effect relationship between these independent trends is hypothesized.

[Temporal and spatial variations of extreme climatic events in Songnen Grassland, Northeast China during 1960-2014].

PubMed

Ma, Qi Yun; Zhang, Ji Quan; Lai, Quan; Zhang, Feng; Dong, Zhen Hua; A, Lu Si

2017-06-18

Fourteen extreme climatic indices related with main regional meteorological disasters and vegetation growth were calculated based on daily data from 13 meteorological stations during 1960-2014 in Songnen Grassland, Northeast China. Then, the variation trend and the spatial and temporal patterns of climatic extreme events were analyzed by using regression analysis, break trend analy-sis, Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator and moving t-test method. The results indicated that summer days (SU25), warm days (TX90P), warm nights (TN90P) and warm spell duration (WSDI) representing extremely high temperatures showed significant increasing trends (P<0.05). Meanwhile, frost days (FD0), cold days (TX10P), cold nights (TN10P) and cold spell duration indicator (CSDI) representing extremely low temperatures showed obviously decreasing trends. The magnitudes of changes in cold indices (FD0, TX10P, TN10P and CSDI) were clearly greater than those of warm indices (SU25, TX90P, TN90P and WSDI), and that changes in night indices were larger than those of day indices. Regional climate warming trend was obvious from 1970 to 2009, and the most occurrences of the abrupt changes in these indices were identified in this period. The extreme precipitation indices did not show obvious trend, in general, SDII and CDD experienced a slightly decreasing trend while RX5D, R95P, PRCPTOT and CWD witnessed a mildly increasing trend. It may be concluded that regional climate changed towards warming and slightly wetting in Songnen Grassland. The most sensitive region for extreme temperature was distributed in the south and north region. Additionally, the extreme temperature indices showed clearly spatial difference between the south and the north. As for the spatial variations of extreme precipitation indices, the climate could be characterized by becoming wetter in northern region, and getting drier in southern region, especially in southwestern region with a high drought risk.

Trends in concentrations of nitrate and total dissolved solids in public supply wells of the Bunker Hill, Lytle, Rialto, and Colton groundwater subbasins, San Bernardino County, California: Influence of legacy land use

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kent, Robert; Landon, Matthew K.

2013-01-01

Concentrations and temporal changes in concentrations of nitrate and total dissolved solids (TDS) in groundwater of the Bunker Hill, Lytle, Rialto, and Colton groundwater subbasins of the Upper Santa Ana Valley Groundwater Basin were evaluated to identify trends and factors that may be affecting trends. One hundred, thirty-one public-supply wells were selected for analysis based on the availability of data spanning at least 11 years between the late 1980s and the 2000s. Forty-one of the 131 wells (31%) had a significant (p < 0.10) increase in nitrate and 14 wells (11%) had a significant decrease in nitrate. For TDS, 46 wells (35%) had a significant increase and 8 wells (6%) had a significant decrease. Slopes for the observed significant trends ranged from − 0.44 to 0.91 mg/L/yr for nitrate (as N) and − 8 to 13 mg/L/yr for TDS. Increasing nitrate trends were associated with greater well depth, higher percentage of agricultural land use, and being closer to the distal end of the flow system. Decreasing nitrate trends were associated with the occurrence of volatile organic compounds (VOCs); VOC occurrence decreases with increasing depth. The relations of nitrate trends to depth, lateral position, and VOCs imply that increasing nitrate concentrations are associated with nitrate loading from historical agricultural land use and that more recent urban land use is generally associated with lower nitrate concentrations and greater VOC occurrence. Increasing TDS trends were associated with relatively greater current nitrate concentrations and relatively greater amounts of urban land. Decreasing TDS trends were associated with relatively greater amounts of natural land use. Trends in TDS concentrations were not related to depth, lateral position, or VOC occurrence, reflecting more complex factors affecting TDS than nitrate in the study area.

Spatial and temporal source apportionment of PM2.5 in Georgia, 2002 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, Xinxin; Mulholland, James A.; Russell, Armistead G.; Holmes, Heather A.

2017-07-01

The Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) receptor model was applied to estimate PM2.5 source impacts over Georgia from 2002 to 2013 using ambient PM2.5 species concentration data from 13 sites. Measurements of 19 PM2.5 species were used as inputs along with measurement-based source profiles to estimate the impacts of nine sources, including both primary components (from heavy duty diesel vehicle, light duty gasoline vehicle, biomass burning, coal combustion, and suspended dust sources) and secondary pollutants (ammonium sulfate, ammonium bisulfate, ammonium nitrate, and secondary organic carbon). From 2002 to 2013, PM2.5 total mass decreased from 13.8 μg/m3 to 9.2 μg/m3 averaged across all sites, a 33% decrease. Largest decreases were observed for secondary sulfate and nitrate species (58% and 44%, respectively). The amount of neutralization by ammonium did not change substantially over the time period in spite of substantial decreases in sulfate and nitrate concentrations. Total mobile source impacts decreased more at urban sites (39%) than rural sites (23%), whereas biomass burning decreased more at rural sites (34%) than urban sites (27%). The estimated central-site source impacts are found to spatially represent large areas for secondary pollutants, smaller areas for biomass burning and dust, and very local areas for mobile sources and coal combustion. Trends from the National Emissions Inventory were compared with the annual trends of mobile source impacts, coal combustion impacts, and sulfate concentrations, resulting in statistically significant positive trends with Pearson R2 of 0.80, 0.64, and 0.79, respectively. Results presented here suggest that PM2.5 reductions in Georgia and the Southeast have been achieved by control of both stationary and mobile sources, and that PM2.5 is comprised of increasing fractions of biomass burning emissions and suspended dust. The temporal trends of source impacts at each site adds information about source changes beyond the every-three-year emission inventories for evaluation of emission-based model results.

Average sperm count remains unchanged despite reduction in maternal smoking: results from a large cross-sectional study with annual investigations over 21 years.

PubMed

Priskorn, L; Nordkap, L; Bang, A K; Krause, M; Holmboe, S A; Egeberg Palme, D L; Winge, S B; Mørup, N; Carlsen, E; Joensen, U N; Blomberg Jensen, M; Main, K M; Juul, A; Skakkebaek, N E; Jensen, T K; Jørgensen, N

2018-06-01

How are temporal trends in lifestyle factors, including exposure to maternal smoking in utero, associated to semen quality in young men from the general population? Exposure to maternal smoking was associated with lower sperm counts but no overall increase in sperm counts was observed during the study period despite a decrease in this exposure. Meta-analyses suggest a continuous decline in semen quality but few studies have investigated temporal trends in unselected populations recruited and analysed with the same protocol over a long period and none have studied simultaneous trends in lifestyle factors. Cross-sectional population-based study including ~300 participants per year (total number = 6386) between 1996 and 2016. The study is based on men from the Greater Copenhagen area, Denmark, with a median age of 19 years, and unselected with regard to fertility status and semen quality. The men delivered a semen sample, had a blood sample drawn and a physical examination performed and answered a comprehensive questionnaire, including information on lifestyle and the mother's pregnancy. Temporal trends in semen quality and lifestyle were illustrated graphically, and trends in semen parameters and the impact of prenatal and current lifestyle factors were explored in multiple regression analyses. Throughout the study period, 35% of the men had low semen quality. Overall, there were no persistent temporal trends in semen quality, testicular volume or levels of follicle-stimulating hormone over the 21 years studied. The men's alcohol intake was lowest between 2011 and 2016, whereas BMI, use of medication and smoking showed no clear temporal trends. Parental age increased, and exposure in utero to maternal smoking declined from 40% among men investigated in 1996-2000 to 18% among men investigated in 2011-2016. Exposure to maternal smoking was associated with lower sperm counts but no overall increase in sperm counts was observed despite the decrease in this exposure. Information of current and prenatal lifestyle was obtained by self-report, and the men delivered only one semen sample each. The significant decline in in utero exposure to maternal smoking, which was not reflected in an overall improvement of semen quality at the population level, suggest that other unknown adverse factors may maintain the low semen quality among Danish men. The study has received financial support from the ReproUnion; the Research fund of Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen University Hospital; the European Union (Contract numbers BMH4-CT96-0314,QLK4-CT-1999-01422, QLK4-CT-2002-00603, FP7/2007-2013, DEER Grant agreement no. 212844); the Danish Ministry of Health; the Danish Environmental Protection Agency; A.P. Møller and wife Chastine McKinney Møllers foundation; and Svend Andersens Foundation. None of the funders had any role in the study design, collection, analysis or interpretation of data, writing of the paper or publication decisions. N/A.

Responses of Surface Runoff to Climate Change and Human Activities in the Arid Region of Central Asia: A Case Study in the Tarim River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Changchun; Chen, Yaning; Chen, Yapeng; Zhao, Ruifeng; Ding, Hui

2013-04-01

Based on hydrological and climatic data and land use/cover change data covering the period from 1957 to 2009, this paper investigates the hydrological responses to climate change and to human activities in the arid Tarim River basin (TRB). The results show that the surface runoff of three headstreams (Aksu River, Yarkant River and Hotan River) of the Tarim River exhibited a significant increasing trend since 1960s and entered an even higher-runoff stage in 1994. In the contrary, the surface runoff of Tarim mainstream displayed a persistent decreasing trend since 1960s. The increasing trend of surface runoff in the headstreams can be attributed to the combined effects of both temperature and precipitation changes during the past five decades. But, the decreasing trend of surface runoff in the mainstream and the observed alterations of the temporal and spatial distribution patterns were mainly due to the adverse impacts of human activities. Specifically, increasingly intensified water consumption for irrigation and the associated massive constructions of water conservancy projects were responsible for the decreasing trend of runoff in the mainstream. And, the decreasing trend has been severely jeopardizing the ecological security in the lower reaches. It is now unequivocally clear that water-use conflicts among different sectors and water-use competitions between upper and lower reaches are approaching to dangerous levels in TRB that is thus crying for implementing an integrated river basin management scheme.

Responses of surface runoff to climate change and human activities in the arid region of central Asia: a case study in the Tarim River basin, China.

PubMed

Xu, Changchun; Chen, Yaning; Chen, Yapeng; Zhao, Ruifeng; Ding, Hui

2013-04-01

Based on hydrological and climatic data and land use/cover change data covering the period from 1957 to 2009, this paper investigates the hydrological responses to climate change and to human activities in the arid Tarim River basin (TRB). The results show that the surface runoff of three headstreams (Aksu River, Yarkant River and Hotan River) of the Tarim River exhibited a significant increasing trend since 1960s and entered an even higher-runoff stage in 1994. In the contrary, the surface runoff of Tarim mainstream displayed a persistent decreasing trend since 1960s. The increasing trend of surface runoff in the headstreams can be attributed to the combined effects of both temperature and precipitation changes during the past five decades. But, the decreasing trend of surface runoff in the mainstream and the observed alterations of the temporal and spatial distribution patterns were mainly due to the adverse impacts of human activities. Specifically, increasingly intensified water consumption for irrigation and the associated massive constructions of water conservancy projects were responsible for the decreasing trend of runoff in the mainstream. And, the decreasing trend has been severely jeopardizing the ecological security in the lower reaches. It is now unequivocally clear that water-use conflicts among different sectors and water-use competitions between upper and lower reaches are approaching to dangerous levels in TRB that is thus crying for implementing an integrated river basin management scheme.

Use of environmental tracers to evaluate ground-water age and water-quality trends in a buried-valley aquifer, Dayton area, southwestern, Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rowe, Gary L.; Shapiro, Stephanie Dunkle; Schlosser, Peter

1999-01-01

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC method) and tritium and helium isotopes (3H-3He method) were used as environmental tracers to estimate ground-water age in conjunction with efforts to develop a regional ground-water flow model of the buried-valley aquifer in the Dayton area, southwestern Ohio. This report describes results of CFC and water-quality sampling, summarizes relevant aspects of previously published work, and describes the use of 3H-3He ages to characterize temporal trends in ground-water quality of the buried-valley aquifer near Dayton, Ohio. Results of CFC sampling indicate that approximately 25 percent of the 137 sampled wells were contaminated with excess CFC's that rendered the ground water unsuitable for age dating. Evaluation of CFC ages obtained for the remaining samples indicated that the CFC compounds used for dating were being affected by microbial degradation. The degradation occurred under anoxic conditions that are found in most parts of the buried-valley aquifer. As a result, ground-water ages derived by the CFC method were too old and were inconsistent with measured tritium concentrations and independently derived 3H-3He ages. Limited data indicate that dissolved methane may play an important role in the degradation of the CFC's. In contrast, the 3H-3He technique was found to yield ground-water ages that were chemically and hydrologically reasonable. Ground-water ages derived by the 3H-3He technique were compared to values for selected water- quality characteristics to evaluate temporal trends in ground-water quality in the buried- valley aquifer. Distinct temporal trends were not identified for pH, alkalinity, or calcium and magnesium because of rapid equilibration of ground-water with calcite and dolomite in aquifer sediments. Temporal trends in which the amount of scatter and the number of outlier concentrations increased as ground-water age decreased were noted for sodium, potassium, boron, bromide, chloride, ammonia, nitrate, phosphate, sulfate, and organic carbon. Elevated concentrations of these constituents in shallow ground water are probably related to human activities. Temporal trends in which concentrations declined as ground-water age increased may reflect natural processes that reduce constituent concentrations to low levels. For example, the absence of nitrate detections in ground water recharged before 1980 may indicate natural removal of nitrate by bacterially mediated denitrification. Temporal trends observed for dissolved oxygen, iron, nitrate and silica indicate that these constituents may help identify recently (post-1990) recharged ground water.

National Trends in Trace Metals Concentrations in Ambient Particulate Matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCarthy, M. C.; Hafner, H. R.; Charrier, J. G.

2007-12-01

Ambient measurements of trace metals identified as hazardous air pollutants (HAPs, air toxics) collected in the United States from 1990 to 2006 were analyzed for long-term trends. Trace metals analyzed include lead, manganese, arsenic, chromium, nickel, cadmium, and selenium. Visual and statistical analyses were used to identify and quantify temporal variations in air toxics at national and regional levels. Trend periods were required to be at least five years. Lead particles decreased in concentration at most monitoring sites, but trends in other metals were not consistent over time or spatially. In addition, routine ambient monitoring methods had method detection limits (MDLs) too high to adequately measure concentrations for trends analysis. Differences between measurement methods at urban and rural sites also confound trends analyses. Improvements in MDLs, and a better understanding of comparability between networks, are needed to better quantify trends in trace metal concentrations in the future.

Measuring environmental stress in East Greenland polar bears, 1892-1927 and 1988-2009: what does hair cortisol tell us?

PubMed

Bechshøft, T Ø; Rigét, F F; Sonne, C; Letcher, R J; Muir, D C G; Novak, M A; Henchey, E; Meyer, J S; Eulaers, I; Jaspers, V L B; Eens, M; Covaci, A; Dietz, R

2012-09-15

Hair sampled from 96 East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) over the periods 1892-1927 and 1988-2009 was analyzed for cortisol as a proxy to investigate temporal patterns of environmental stress. Cortisol concentration was independent of sex and age, and was found at significantly higher (p<0.001) concentrations in historical hair samples (1892-1927; n=8) relative to recent ones (1988-2009; n=88). In addition, there was a linear time trend in cortisol concentration of the recent samples (p<0.01), with an annual decrease of 2.7%. The recent hair samples were also analyzed for major bioaccumulative, persistent organic pollutants (POPs). There were no obvious POP related time trends or correlations between hair cortisol and hair POP concentrations. Thus, polar bear hair appears to be a relatively poor indicator of the animal's general POP load in adipose tissue. However, further investigations are warranted to explore the reasons for the temporal decrease found in the bears' hair cortisol levels. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal trends in brominated flame retardants in seabirds from the Pacific coast of Canada.

PubMed

Miller, Aroha; Elliott, John E; Elliott, Kyle H; Guigueno, Mélanie F; Wilson, Laurie K; Lee, Sandi; Idrissi, Abde

2014-12-01

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCDD) are bioaccumulative flame retardants. PBDEs increased in many ecosystems during the late 20th century, but recently have declined in some environments. To examine trends in the northern Pacific, we analysed PBDEs, HBCDD and carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes (δ13C and δ15N) to account for dietary effects in archived eggs of three seabird species from British Columbia, Canada, 1990-2011 (rhinoceros auklets, Cerorhinca monocerata; Leach's storm-petrels, Oceanodroma leucorhoa; ancient murrelets, Synthliboramphus antiquus, 2009 only). PBDEs increased until approximately 2000 and then decreased, while HBCDD increased exponentially throughout the examined period. No significant changes in dietary tracers were observed. HBCDD and ΣPBDE levels varied among species; ΣPBDE also varied among sites. Temporal changes in contaminant concentrations are unlikely to have been caused by dietary changes, and likely reflect the build-up followed by decreases associated with voluntary phase-outs and regulations implemented in North America to control PBDEs. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measuring environmental stress in East Greenland polar bears, 1892–1927 and 1988–2009: what does hair cortisol tell us?

PubMed Central

TØ, Bechshøft; Rigét, FF; Sonne, C; Letcher, RJ; Muir, DCG; Novak, MA; Henchey, E; Meyer, JS; Eulaers; Jaspers, VLB; Eens, M; Covaci, A; Dietz, R

2012-01-01

Hair sampled from 96 East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) over the periods 1892–1927 and 1988–2009 was analyzed for cortisol as a proxy to investigate temporal patterns of environmental stress. Cortisol concentration was independent of sex and age, and was found at significantly higher (p < 0.001) concentrations in historical hair samples (1892–1927; n = 8) relative to recent ones (1988–2009; n = 88). In addition, there was a linear time trend in cortisol concentration of the recent samples (p < 0.01), with an annual decrease of 2.7 %. The recent hair samples were also analyzed for major bioaccumulative, persistent organic pollutants (POPs). There were no obvious POP related time trends or correlations between hair cortisol and hair POP concentrations. Thus, polar bear hair appears to be a relatively poor indicator of the animal’s general POP load in adipose tissue. However, further investigations are warranted to explore the reasons for the temporal decrease found in the bears’ hair cortisol levels. PMID:22572112

A 10-year spatial and temporal trend of sulfate across the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malm, William C.; Schichtel, Bret A.; Ames, Rodger B.; Gebhart, Kristi A.

2002-11-01

Legislative and regulatory mandates have resulted in reduced sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions in both the eastern and western United States with anticipation that concurrent levels of ambient SO2, SO42-, and rainwater acidity would decrease. This paper examines spatial and temporal trends in ambient SO42- concentration from 1988 to 1999, SO2 emissions from 1990 to 1999, and the relationship between these two variables. The SO42- concentration data came from combining data from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) and the Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNet). Over 70 sites spread across the continental United States are considered in this analysis. From a spatial perspective, the 90th percentile summer sulfate concentrations are highest along the Ohio River Valley and in central Tennessee where the emission density of SO2 is greatest. These concentrations are a factor of 2 greater than the Northeast, northern Michigan, and coastal areas of the Southeast and about a factor of 15 greater than the central western United States. In the East, the largest SO42- decreases in the 80th percentile concentrations occurred north of the Ohio River Valley, while most monitoring sites south of Kentucky and Virginia showed increasing and decreasing trends that were not statistically significant. Big Bend National Park, Texas, Cranberry, North Carolina, and Lassen Volcanic National Park, California, are the only areas that show a statistically significant increase in SO42- mass concentrations. The 1990-1999 annual 80th percentile SO42- time series were compared to the annual SO2 emissions over four broad United States regions. Each region had a unique time series pattern with the SO42- concentrations and SO2 emissions closely tracking each other over the 10-year period. Both the SO42- and SO2 emissions decreased in the Northeast (28%) and the West (15%), while there was little change in the Southeast and a 15% increase over Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado.

The effect of drinking water contaminated with perfluoroalkyl substances on a 10-year longitudinal trend of plasma levels in an elderly Uppsala cohort.

PubMed

Stubleski, Jordan; Salihovic, Samira; Lind, P Monica; Lind, Lars; Dunder, Linda; McCleaf, Philip; Eurén, Karin; Ahrens, Lutz; Svartengren, Magnus; van Bavel, Bert; Kärrman, Anna

2017-11-01

In 2012, drinking water contaminated with per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs), foremost perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) and perfluorohexanesulfonic acid (PFHxS) at levels over 20ng/L and 40ng/L, respectively, was confirmed in Uppsala, Sweden. We assessed how a longitudinally sampled cohort's temporal trend in PFAS plasma concentration was influenced by their residential location and determined the plausible association or disparity between the PFASs detected in the drinking water and the trend in the study cohort. The Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (PIVUS) cohort provided plasma samples three times from 2001 to 2014. Individuals maintaining the same zip code throughout the study (n = 399) were divided into a reference (no known PFAS exposure), low, intermediate and high exposure area depending on the proportion of contaminated drinking water received. Eight PFASs detected in the majority (75%) of the cohort's plasma samples were evaluated for significant changes in temporal PFAS concentrations using a random effects (mixed) model. PFHxS plasma concentrations continued to significantly increase in individuals living in areas receiving the largest percentage of contaminated drinking water (p < 0.0001), while PFOS showed an overall decrease. The temporal trend of other PFAS plasma concentrations did not show an association to the quality of drinking water received. The distribution of contaminated drinking water had a direct effect on the trend in PFHxS plasma levels among the different exposure groups, resulting in increased concentrations over time, especially in the intermediate and high exposure areas. PFOS and the remaining PFASs did not show the same relationship, suggesting other sources of exposure influenced these PFAS plasma trends. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Space-time patterns of trends in stratospheric constituents derived from UARS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randel, William J.; Wu, Fei; Russell, James M.; Waters, Joe

1999-02-01

The spatial and temporal behavior of low-frequency changes (trends) in stratospheric constituents measured by instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during 1991-98 is investigated. The data include CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and O3, ClO, and HNO3 from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Time series of global anomalies are analyzed by linear regression and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Each of the constituents show significant linear trends over at least some region of the stratosphere, and the spatial patterns exhibit coupling between the different species. Several of the constituents (namely CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2) exhibit a temporal change in trend rates, with strong changes prior to 1996 and weaker (or reversed) trends thereafter. Positive trends are observed in upper stratospheric ClO, with a percentage rate during 1993-97 consistent with stratospheric HCl increases and with tropospheric chlorine emission rates. Significant negative trends in ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere are found in both HALOE and MLS data during 1993-97, together with positive trends in the tropics near 25 km. These trends are very different from the decadal-scale ozone trends observed since 1979, and this demonstrates the variability of trends calculated over short time periods. Positive trends in NO2 are found in the tropical middle stratosphere, and spatial coincidence to the observed ozone decreases suggests the ozone is responding to the NO2 increase. Significant negative trends in HNO3 are found in the lower stratosphere of both hemispheres. These coupled signatures offer a fingerprint of chemical evolution in the stratosphere for the UARS time frame.

Temporal trends of mercury and organohalogen contaminants in great blue heron eggs from the St. Lawrence River, Québec, Canada, 1991-2011, and relationships with tracers of feeding ecology.

PubMed

Champoux, Louise; Boily, Monique

2017-12-31

Since 1991, great blue heron (Ardea herodias) eggs have been collected and analyzed for mercury (Hg), persistent organic contaminants (OCs), brominated and non-brominated flame retardants (FRs) as well as stable isotopes δ 13 C and δ 15 N. In the present study, temporal trends of contaminants were analyzed in eggs sampled in four regions along the St. Lawrence River (Quebec, Canada) and inland sites using new and previously published data. Most contaminants declined significantly over time in most regions. Globally, the highest annual change, -17.5%, was found for pp'-DDD, while the smallest annual decline, -0.54%, was observed for Hg. Concentrations of ΣDDT and ΣFR 8 (sum of 8 congeners) decreased by -11.6% and -7.3%, respectively. Declines in ΣPCBs differed among regions, from -5.6% in the fluvial section to -14.7% in the inland region. The highest concentration of ΣFR 8 was measured in eggs from Grande Ile in the fluvial section of the river in 1996 (2.39μg/g). Stable isotope ratios also showed temporal trends in some regions: δ 13 C decreased in the fluvial section and increased in Gulf region, while δ 15 N decreased in the fluvial section and increased in the upper estuary. Significant positive relationships were found between ΣDDT, ΣPCBs and ΣFRs and δ 15 N and δ 13 C in freshwater colonies, but not in estuarine or marine colonies. These results suggest that changes in trophic level and foraging areas over time were influential factors with respect to contaminant burden in great blue heron eggs in the fluvial section, but not in the other regions. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Monitoring of Typical Steppe Desertification Based on Time Series of Net Primary Productivity Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hongyan; Li, Qiangzi; Gao, Zhihai

2014-11-01

Monitoring of grassland condition is a basic prerequisite for finding the degradation of a territory under climatic and human pressures leading to desertification. The temporal change in vegetation productivity is a key indicator of grassland degradation. In this paper, taking the Xilin Gol League as a case, the net primary production (NPP) dynamic trends during 2001-2010 were analyzed, with the Mann-Kendall test. In this paper, in the study area where precipitation and NPP has significantly positive correlation, the residual trend method (RESTREND) was used to remove the annual NPP fluctuation caused by rainfall fluctuation and reduce the effect of precipitation on vegetation monitoring indicators. The results showed that An overall strong liner correlation between NPP and precipitation was observed in the Xilin Gol grassland, with 68.52% of the pixels analyzed being significantly correlated (α =0.1). The statistical analysis reveals that the NPP trend estimation generally shows a decreasing trend, with 13.02% of the Xilin Gol grassland being analyzed showing a significant trend (11.47% decrease and 1.55% increase). However, the Xilin Gol grassland desertification was not serious in the past ten years, only 5.16% of the study area where the vegetation productivity was significantly decreases (reducing the effect of precipitation).

Decreasing Fires in Mediterranean Europe

PubMed Central

Turco, Marco; Bedia, Joaquín; Di Liberto, Fabrizio; Fiorucci, Paolo; von Hardenberg, Jost; Koutsias, Nikos; Llasat, Maria-Carmen; Xystrakis, Fotios; Provenzale, Antonello

2016-01-01

Forest fires are a serious environmental hazard in southern Europe. Quantitative assessment of recent trends in fire statistics is important for assessing the possible shifts induced by climate and other environmental/socioeconomic changes in this area. Here we analyse recent fire trends in Portugal, Spain, southern France, Italy and Greece, building on a homogenized fire database integrating official fire statistics provided by several national/EU agencies. During the period 1985-2011, the total annual burned area (BA) displayed a general decreasing trend, with the exception of Portugal, where a heterogeneous signal was found. Considering all countries globally, we found that BA decreased by about 3020 km2 over the 27-year-long study period (i.e. about -66% of the mean historical value). These results are consistent with those obtained on longer time scales when data were available, also yielding predominantly negative trends in Spain and France (1974-2011) and a mixed trend in Portugal (1980-2011). Similar overall results were found for the annual number of fires (NF), which globally decreased by about 12600 in the study period (about -59%), except for Spain where, excluding the provinces along the Mediterranean coast, an upward trend was found for the longer period. We argue that the negative trends can be explained, at least in part, by an increased effort in fire management and prevention after the big fires of the 1980’s, while positive trends may be related to recent socioeconomic transformations leading to more hazardous landscape configurations, as well as to the observed warming of recent decades. We stress the importance of fire data homogenization prior to analysis, in order to alleviate spurious effects associated with non-stationarities in the data due to temporal variations in fire detection efforts. PMID:26982584

Decreasing Fires in Mediterranean Europe.

PubMed

Turco, Marco; Bedia, Joaquín; Di Liberto, Fabrizio; Fiorucci, Paolo; von Hardenberg, Jost; Koutsias, Nikos; Llasat, Maria-Carmen; Xystrakis, Fotios; Provenzale, Antonello

2016-01-01

Forest fires are a serious environmental hazard in southern Europe. Quantitative assessment of recent trends in fire statistics is important for assessing the possible shifts induced by climate and other environmental/socioeconomic changes in this area. Here we analyse recent fire trends in Portugal, Spain, southern France, Italy and Greece, building on a homogenized fire database integrating official fire statistics provided by several national/EU agencies. During the period 1985-2011, the total annual burned area (BA) displayed a general decreasing trend, with the exception of Portugal, where a heterogeneous signal was found. Considering all countries globally, we found that BA decreased by about 3020 km2 over the 27-year-long study period (i.e. about -66% of the mean historical value). These results are consistent with those obtained on longer time scales when data were available, also yielding predominantly negative trends in Spain and France (1974-2011) and a mixed trend in Portugal (1980-2011). Similar overall results were found for the annual number of fires (NF), which globally decreased by about 12600 in the study period (about -59%), except for Spain where, excluding the provinces along the Mediterranean coast, an upward trend was found for the longer period. We argue that the negative trends can be explained, at least in part, by an increased effort in fire management and prevention after the big fires of the 1980's, while positive trends may be related to recent socioeconomic transformations leading to more hazardous landscape configurations, as well as to the observed warming of recent decades. We stress the importance of fire data homogenization prior to analysis, in order to alleviate spurious effects associated with non-stationarities in the data due to temporal variations in fire detection efforts.

Flexural subsidence and basement tectonics of the Cretaceous Western Interior basin, United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pang, Ming; Nummedal, Dag

1995-02-01

The flexural subsidence history recorded in Cenomanian to early Campanian (97 to 80 Ma) strata in the Cretaceous U.S. Western Interior basin was studied with two-dimensional flexural backstripping techniques. Results indicate that the flexural subsidence resulting from thrust loading was superimposed on epeirogenic subsidence in the foreland basin. The flexural component exhibits significant spatial and temporal variations along both the strike and dip relative to the Sevier thrust belt. The greatest cumulative subsidence occurred in southwestern Wyoming and northern Utah. Concurrent subsidence in northwestern Montana and southern Utah was insignificant. Temporal trends in subsidence also show a distinct regional pattern. From the Cenomanian to late Turonian (97 to 90 Ma), subsidence rates were high in Utah and much lower in Wyoming and Montana. In contrast, during the Coniacian and Santonian (90 to 85 Ma) subsidence accelerated rapidly in Wyoming, increased slightly in Montana, and decreased in Utah. We suggest that these spatially and temporally varying subsidence patterns reflect the interplay of several geodynamic factors, including: (1) temporal and spatial variation in emplacement of the thrust loads, (2) segmentation of the basement into adjacent blocks with different rheological properties, (3) reactivation of basement fault trends, and (4) regional dynamic topographic effects.

Trends in the leading causes of death in the United States, 1970-2002.

PubMed

Jemal, Ahmedin; Ward, Elizabeth; Hao, Yongping; Thun, Michael

2005-09-14

The decrease in overall death rates in the United States may mask changes in death rates from specific conditions. To examine temporal trends in the age-standardized death rates and in the number of deaths from the 6 leading causes of death in the United States. Analyses of vital statistics data on mortality in the United States from 1970 to 2002. The age-standardized death rate and number of deaths (coded as underlying cause) from each of the 6 leading causes of death: heart disease, stroke, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, accidents (ie, related to transportation [motor vehicle, other land vehicles, and water, air, and space] and not related to transportation [falls, fire, and accidental posioning]), and diabetes mellitus. The age-standardized death rate (per 100,000 per year) from all causes combined decreased from 1242 in 1970 to 845 in 2002. The largest percentage decreases were in death rates from stroke (63%), heart disease (52%), and accidents (41%). The largest absolute decreases in death rates were from heart disease (262 deaths per 100,000), stroke (96 deaths per 100,000), and accidents (26 deaths per 100,000).The death rate from all types of cancer combined increased between 1970 and 1990 and then decreased through 2002, yielding a net decline of 2.7%. In contrast, death rates doubled from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease over the entire time interval and increased by 45% for diabetes since 1987. Despite decreases in age-standardized death rates from 4 of the 6 leading causes of death, the absolute number of deaths from these conditions continues to increase, although these deaths occur at older ages. The absolute number of deaths and age at death continue to increase in the United States. These temporal trends have major implications for health care and health care costs in an aging population.

Spatial and temporal trends and flow dynamics of glyphosate and other pesticides within an agricultural watershed in Argentina.

PubMed

Pérez, Débora J; Okada, Elena; De Gerónimo, Eduardo; Menone, Mirta L; Aparicio, Virginia C; Costa, José L

2017-12-01

In the present study, we evaluated the spatial and temporal trends of current-use pesticides in surface water and sediments as well as their relationship with hydrological stream dynamics within the agricultural watershed of El Crespo stream (Buenos Aires Province, Argentina). We sampled 2 contrasting sites: site 1 (upstream), surrounded by agricultural lands, and site 2 (downstream), surrounded by natural grasslands. Most of the applied pesticides (glyphosate, 2,4-D, atrazine, tebuconazole, and imidacloprid) were detected at high frequencies in surface water samples at both sites. However, only glyphosate and aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA) were present at high concentrations and had a significant spatial-temporal trend. The highest concentrations were found during spring 2014 at site 1, in association with the intense rains that occurred in that season. The fact that glyphosate and AMPA concentrations were higher than the rest of the studied compounds is closely related to the land use within the watershed, as glyphosate was the most applied herbicide during the fallow period of glyphosate-resistant crops (soybean, maize). The pesticide mixture had a significant spatial-temporal trend, reaching the highest levels during storm flow events in spring 2014. The intensive rains in spring 2014 could be the main factor influencing stream hydrology and pesticide behavior at El Crespo watershed. The estimated annual pesticide losses were 3.11 g/ha at site 1 and 0.72 g/ha at site 2. This result indicates that an attenuation process could be decreasing pesticide loads during downstream transport from site 1 to site 2. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:3206-3216. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Declining Dioxin concentrations in the Rhone River, France, attest to the effectiveness of emissions controls

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Metre, Peter C.; Babut, Marc; Mourier, Brice; Mahler, Barbara J.; Roux, Gwenaelle; Desmet, Marc

2015-01-01

Emission-control policies have been implemented in Europe and North America since the 1990s for polychlorodibenzodioxins (PCDDs) and furans (PCDFs). To assess the effect of these policies on temporal trends and spatial patterns for these compounds in a large European river system, sediment cores were collected in seven depositional areas along the Rhone River in France, dated, and analyzed for PCDDs and PCDFs. Results show concentrations increase in the downstream direction and have decreased temporally at all sites during the last two decades, with an average decrease of 83% from 1992 to 2010. The time for a 50% decrease in concentrations (t1/2) averaged 6.9 ± 2.6 and 9.1 ± 2.9 years for the sum of measured PCDDs and PCDFs, respectively. Congener patterns are similar among cores and indicate dominance of regional atmospheric deposition and possibly weathered local sources. Local sources are clearly indicated at the most downstream site, where concentrations of the most toxic dioxin, TCDD, are about 2 orders of magnitude higher than at the other six sites. The relatively steep downward trends attest to the effects of the dioxin emissions reduction policy in Europe and suggest that risks posed to aquatic life in the Rhone River basin from dioxins and furans have been greatly reduced.

Trematomus bernacchii as an indicator of POP temporal trend in the Antarctic seawaters.

PubMed

Cincinelli, Alessandra; Martellini, Tania; Pozo, Karla; Kukučka, Petr; Audy, Ondřej; Corsolini, Simonetta

2016-10-01

The occurrence of POPs in remote areas, such as Antarctica, is the result of their ability to udergo Long Range Transport (LRT) in the atmosphere, precipitation and cold condensation. In this study, both recent levels of various POPs in Trematomus bernacchii and their changes in roughly three decades were determined in order to evaluate trends of POPs in Antarctic benthic seawaters. In fact, Trematomus bernacchii is considered a good sentinel bio-indicator for monitoring not only the extent of contamination by POPs in the Antarctic aquatic ecosystem, but also changes in Antarctic ecosystem quality and trends. A slight decreasing PCB trend was detected during 30-years time span (from early 1980's to 2010) in the circumantarctic seawaters. Two higher peaks of concentrations were reported in 2001 and 2005 in the Ross Sea and they may reflect the ice melting of icebergs. Because fire risk is very high in Antarctica due to the very dry air, a large use of flame retardants in buildings and furniture of stations is highly probable; moreover, many stations were built when there were no restrictions on flame retardants use. The PBDE levels in the T. bernacchii from 2001 to 2011 ranged 0.05-0.35 pg/g and were of the same order of magnitude in 2001/2011 and in 2002/2005, with a maximum value in 2005 (0.35 pg/g). Comparable concentrations of HCB, HCHs PCDDs and PCDFs are available only for few seasons: all these compounds showed a decreasing temporal trends and their concentrations were one or more order of magnitude lower in 2000s-2010s. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recent Temporal Trends in Parent-Reported Physical Activity in Children in the United States, 2009 to 2014.

PubMed

Loprinzi, Paul D; Davis, Robert E

2016-04-01

The objective of this study was to provide recent temporal trends in parent-reported physical activity in children (6-11 years) between 2009 and 2014. Data from the 2009 to 2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used. The analytic sample included 3946 children. Parent proxy of child physical activity at each of the 3 2-year cycles was assessed. For the entire sample, there was a quadratic trend, with the number of days children engaged in at least 60 min/d of physical activity increasing in the period 2011 to 2012 (6.12 days) when compared with the period 2009 to 2010 (5.96 days) and then decreasing in the period 2013 to 2014 (5.83 days). A similar quadratic trend was evident for boys, those above the poverty level, non-Hispanic whites (particularly boys), and those with less than the 85th body mass index-for-age percentile based on sex. A negative linear trend was observed for those above the poverty level and non-Hispanic whites (particularly girls). In conclusion, these findings provide suggestive evidence that over the past 6 years (1999-2014), parents report that children's physical activity has slightly decreased in the latest years, with this observation being most pronounced in boys, those above the poverty level, non-Hispanic whites, and those with less than the 85th body mass index-for-age and sex percentile. Encouragingly, however, across all evaluated subpopulations, most children (55%-82%), as determined by their parents, engaged in 60 min/d of physical activity (consistent with government recommendations). Copyright © 2016 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Air Pollution in China from 2001–2014

PubMed Central

Bao, Junzhe; Yang, Xiping; Zhao, Zhiyuan; Wang, Zhenkun; Yu, Chuanhua; Li, Xudong

2015-01-01

To provide some useful information about the control of air pollution in China, we studied the spatial-temporal characteristics of air pollution in China from 2001–2014. First, we drew several line charts and histograms of the Air Pollution Index (API) and Air Quality Index (AQI) of 31 capital cities and municipalities to research the distribution across different times and cities; then, we researched the spatial clustering of API and AQI; finally, we examined the shift of the gravity center of API and AQI in different years and months. The API values had a decreasing trend: the high values had a clustering trend in some northern cities, and the low values had a clustering trend in some southern cities. The AQI values were relatively low, from 15:00–17:00 during the day. The gravity center of API had a trend of moving south from 2001–2003, then fluctuated in an unordered pattern and moved north in the winter. The AQI gravity center did not have a regular shift during different months. In conclusion, the government should take action to mitigate air pollution in some typical cities, as well as air pollution during the winter. PMID:26694427

Association of temporal trends in risk factors and treatment uptake with coronary heart disease mortality, 1994-2005.

PubMed

Wijeysundera, Harindra C; Machado, Márcio; Farahati, Farah; Wang, Xuesong; Witteman, William; van der Velde, Gabrielle; Tu, Jack V; Lee, Douglas S; Goodman, Shaun G; Petrella, Robert; O'Flaherty, Martin; Krahn, Murray; Capewell, Simon

2010-05-12

Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality has declined substantially in Canada since 1994. To determine what proportion of this decline was associated with temporal trends in CHD risk factors and advancements in medical treatments. Prospective analytic study of the Ontario, Canada, population aged 25 to 84 years between 1994 and 2005, using an updated version of the validated IMPACT model, which integrates data on population size, CHD mortality, risk factors, and treatment uptake changes. Relative risks and regression coefficients from the published literature quantified the relationship between CHD mortality and (1) evidence-based therapies in 8 distinct CHD subpopulations (acute myocardial infarction [AMI], acute coronary syndromes, secondary prevention post-AMI, chronic coronary artery disease, heart failure in the hospital vs in the community, and primary prevention for hyperlipidemia or hypertension) and (2) population trends in 6 risk factors (smoking, diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, plasma cholesterol level, exercise, and obesity). The number of deaths prevented or delayed in 2005; secondary outcome measures were improvements in medical treatments and trends in risk factors. Between 1994 and 2005, the age-adjusted CHD mortality rate in Ontario decreased by 35% from 191 to 125 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, translating to an estimated 7585 fewer CHD deaths in 2005. Improvements in medical and surgical treatments were associated with 43% (range, 11% to 124%) of the total mortality decrease, most notably in AMI (8%; range, -5% to 40%), chronic stable coronary artery disease (17%; range, 7% to 35%), and heart failure occurring while in the community (10%; range, 6% to 31%). Trends in risk factors accounted for 3660 fewer CHD deaths prevented or delayed (48% of total; range, 28% to 64%), specifically, reductions in total cholesterol (23%; range, 10% to 33%) and systolic blood pressure (20%; range, 13% to 26%). Increasing diabetes prevalence and body mass index had an inverse relationship associated with higher CHD mortality of 6% (range, 4% to 8%) and 2% (range, 1% to 4%), respectively. Between 1994 and 2005, there was a decrease in CHD mortality rates in Ontario that was associated primarily with trends in risk factors and improvements in medical treatments, each explaining about half of the decrease.

Incorporating diverse data and realistic complexity into demographic estimation procedures for sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tinker, M. Timothy; Doak, Daniel F.; Estes, James A.; Hatfield, Brian B.; Staedler, Michelle M.; Gross, Arthur

2006-01-01

Reliable information on historical and current population dynamics is central to understanding patterns of growth and decline in animal populations. We developed a maximum likelihood-based analysis to estimate spatial and temporal trends in age/sex-specific survival rates for the threatened southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis), using annual population censuses and the age structure of salvaged carcass collections. We evaluated a wide range of possible spatial and temporal effects and used model averaging to incorporate model uncertainty into the resulting estimates of key vital rates and their variances. We compared these results to current demographic parameters estimated in a telemetry-based study conducted between 2001 and 2004. These results show that survival has decreased substantially from the early 1990s to the present and is generally lowest in the north-central portion of the population's range. The greatest temporal decrease in survival was for adult females, and variation in the survival of this age/sex class is primarily responsible for regulating population growth and driving population trends. Our results can be used to focus future research on southern sea otters by highlighting the life history stages and mortality factors most relevant to conservation. More broadly, we have illustrated how the powerful and relatively straightforward tools of information-theoretic-based model fitting can be used to sort through and parameterize quite complex demographic modeling frameworks. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Detecting temporal change in freshwater fisheries surveys: statistical power and the important linkages between management questions and monitoring objectives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Irwin, Brian J.; James R. Bence,; Daniel B. Hayes,

2016-01-01

Monitoring to detect temporal trends in biological and habitat indices is a critical component of fisheries management. Thus, it is important that management objectives are linked to monitoring objectives. This linkage requires a definition of what constitutes a management-relevant “temporal trend.” It is also important to develop expectations for the amount of time required to detect a trend (i.e., statistical power) and for choosing an appropriate statistical model for analysis. We provide an overview of temporal trends commonly encountered in fisheries management, review published studies that evaluated statistical power of long-term trend detection, and illustrate dynamic linear models in a Bayesian context, as an additional analytical approach focused on shorter term change. We show that monitoring programs generally have low statistical power for detecting linear temporal trends and argue that often management should be focused on different definitions of trends, some of which can be better addressed by alternative analytical approaches.

Spatial distribution and temporal trends of rainfall erosivity in mainland China for 1951-2010

Treesearch

Wei Qin; Qiankun Guo; Changqing Zuo; Zhijie Shan; Liang Ma; Ge Sun

2016-01-01

Rainfall erosivity is an important factor for estimating soil erosion rates. Understanding the spatial distributionand temporal trends of rainfall erosivity is especially critical for soil erosion risk assessment and soil conservationplanning in mainland China. However, reports on the spatial distribution and temporal trends of rainfall...

The Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on Recent Greenland Surface Mass Loss and Mass Partitioning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tedesco, M.; Alexander, P.; Porter, D. F.; Fettweis, X.; Luthcke, S. B.; Mote, T. L.; Rennermalm, A.; Hanna, E.

2017-12-01

Despite recent changes in Greenland surface mass losses and atmospheric circulation over the Arctic, little attention has been given to the potential role of large-scale atmospheric processes on the spatial and temporal variability of mass loss and partitioning of the GrIS mass loss. Using a combination of satellite gravimetry measurements, outputs of the MAR regional climate model and reanalysis data, we show that changes in atmospheric patterns since 2013 over the North Atlantic region of the Arctic (NAA) modulate total mass loss trends over Greenland together with the spatial and temporal distribution of mass loss partitioning. For example, during the 2002 - 2012 period, melting persistently increased, especially along the west coast, as a consequence of increased insulation and negative NAO conditions characterizing that period. Starting in 2013, runoff along the west coast decreased while snowfall increased substantially, when NAO turned to a more neutral/positive state. Modeled surface mass balance terms since 1950 indicate that part of the GRACE-period, specifically the period between 2002 and 2012, was exceptional in terms of snowfall over the east and northeast regions. During that period snowfall trend decreased to almost 0 Gt/yr from a long-term increasing trend, which presumed again in 2013. To identify the potential impact of atmospheric patterns on mass balance and its partitioning, we studied the spatial and temporal correlations between NAO and snowfall/runoff. Our results indicate that the correlation between summer snowfall and NAO is not stable during the 1950 - 2015 period. We further looked at changes in patterns of circulation using self organizing maps (SOMs) to identify the atmospheric patterns characterizing snowfall during different periods. We discuss potential implications for past changes and future GCM and RCM simulations.

Temporal trends in emergency department visits for bronchiolitis in the United States, 2006 to 2010.

PubMed

Hasegawa, Kohei; Tsugawa, Yusuke; Brown, David F M; Mansbach, Jonathan M; Camargo, Carlos A

2014-01-01

To examine temporal trends in emergency departments (EDs) visits for bronchiolitis among US children between 2006 and 2010. Serial, cross-sectional analysis of the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample, a nationally representative sample of ED patients. We used International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification code 466.1 to identify children <2 years of age with bronchiolitis. Primary outcome measures were rate of bronchiolitis ED visits, hospital admission rate and ED charges. Between 2006 and 2010, weighted national discharge data included 1,435,110 ED visits with bronchiolitis. There was a modest increase in the rate of bronchiolitis ED visits, from 35.6 to 36.3 per 1000 person-years (2% increase; Ptrend = 0.008), due to increases in the ED visit rate among children from 12 months to 23 months (24% increase;Ptrend < 0.001). By contrast, there was a significant decline in the ED visit rate among infants (4% decrease; Ptrend < 0.001). Although unadjusted admission rate did not change between 2006 and 2010 (26% in both years), admission rate declined significantly after adjusting for potential patient- and ED-level confounders (adjusted odds ratio for comparison of 2010 with 2006, 0.84; 95% confidence interval: 0.76-0.93; P < 0.001). Nationwide ED charges for bronchiolitis increased from $337 million to $389 million (16% increase; Ptrend < 0.001), adjusted for inflation. This increase was driven by a rise in geometric mean of ED charges per case from $887 to $1059 (19% increase; Ptrend < 0.001). Between 2006 and 2010, we found a divergent temporal trend in the rate of bronchiolitis ED visits by age group. Despite a significant increase in associated ED charges, ED-associated hospital admission rates for bronchiolitis significantly decreased over this same period.

Time-Course Reduction in Patient Exposure to Radiation From Coronary Interventional Procedures: The Greater Paris Area Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Registry.

PubMed

Georges, Jean-Louis; Karam, Nicole; Tafflet, Muriel; Livarek, Bernard; Bataille, Sophie; Loyeau, Aurélie; Mapouata, Mireille; Benamer, Hakim; Caussin, Christophe; Garot, Philippe; Varenne, Olivier; Barbou, Franck; Teiger, Emmanuel; Funck, François; Karrillon, Gaëtan; Lambert, Yves; Spaulding, Christian; Jouven, Xavier

2017-08-01

The frequency of complex percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs) has increased in the last few years, with a growing concern on the radiation dose received by the patients. Multicenter data from large unselected populations on patients' radiation doses during coronary angiography (CA) and PCI and temporal trends are lacking. This study sought to evaluate the temporal trends in patients' exposure to radiation from CA and PCI. Data were taken from the CARDIO-ARSIF registry that prospectively collects data on all CAs and PCIs performed in the 36 catheterization laboratories in the Greater Paris Area, the most populated regions in France with about 12 million inhabitants. Kerma area product and Fluoroscopy time from 152 684 consecutive CAs and 103 177 PCIs performed between 2009 and 2013 were analyzed. A continuous trend for a decrease in median [interquartile range] Kerma area product was observed, from 33 [19-55] Gy cm 2 in 2009 to 27 [16-44] Gy cm 2 in 2013 for CA ( P <0.0001), and from 73 [41-125] to 55 [31-91] Gy cm 2 for PCI ( P <0.0001). Time-course differences in Kerma area product remained highly significant after adjustment on Fluoroscopy time, PCI procedure complexity, change of x-ray equipment, and other patient- and procedure-related covariates. In a large patient population, a steady temporal decrease in patient radiation exposure during CA and PCI was noted between 2009 and 2013. Kerma area product reduction was consistent in all types of procedure and was independent of patient-related factors and PCI procedure complexity. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Space-based observations of nitrogen dioxide: Trends in anthropogenic emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, Ashley Ray

Space-based instruments provide routine global observations, offering a unique perspective on the spatial and temporal variation of atmospheric constituents. In this dissertation, trends in regional-scale anthropogenic nitrogen oxide emissions (NO + NO2 ≡ NOx) are investigated using high resolution observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). By comparing trends in OMI observations with those from ground-based measurements and an emissions inventory, I show that satellite observations are well-suited for capturing changes in emissions over time. The high spatial and temporal resolutions of the observations provide a uniquely complete view of regional-scale changes in the spatial patterns of NO 2. I show that NOx concentrations have decreased significantly in urban regions of the United States between 2005 and 2011, with an average reduction of 32 ± 7%. By examining day-of-week and interannual trends, I show that these reductions can largely be attributed to improved emission control technology in the mobile source fleet; however, I also show that the economic downturn of the late 2000's has impacted emissions. Additionally, I describe the development of a high-resolution retrieval of NO2 from OMI observations known as the Berkeley High Resolution (BEHR) retrieval. The BEHR product uses higher spatial and temporal resolution terrain and profile parameters than the operational retrievals and is shown to provide a more quantitative measure of tropospheric NO2 column density. These results have important implications for future retrievals of NO2 from space-based observations.

Temporal trends and ethnic variations in asthma mortality in Singapore, 1976-1995.

PubMed

Ng, T P; Tan, W C

1999-11-01

A study was undertaken to examine temporal trends and ethnic differences in the asthma mortality rate in Singapore. Asthma mortality rates in Singapore were estimated from vital data for the years from 1976 to 1995. Trends in sex and age specific (5-14, 15-34, 35-59, 60+ years) rates were obtained for four periods (1976-80, 1981-85, 1986-90, 1991-95) and for Chinese, Malay, and Indian subjects for the years when these data were available (1989-95). An increase in asthma mortality was observed in children aged 5-14 years from 0.21 per 100,000 person years in 1976-80 to 0.72 per 100,000 person years in 1991-95. No increases were noted in the other age groups but a small decrease was observed in the 1991-95 period for the 35-59 year age group. Marked ethnic differences in mortality rates were observed. In the group aged 5-34 years the asthma mortality rates were 0.5 per 100,000 in Chinese subjects, 1.3 per 100,000 in Indians, and 2.5 per 100,000 in Malay subjects. Similar 2-4 fold differences were observed in all other age groups. Apart from genetic factors, environmental exposures and medical care factors which influence asthma prevalence and severity are most likely to be the causes of the observed temporal trends and ethnic differences in the asthma mortality rate in Singapore, but further studies are needed to elucidate these more fully.

Temporal variation of the wind environment and its possible causes in the Mu Us Dunefield of Northern China, 1960-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Xujia; Sun, Hu; Dong, Zhibao; Liu, Zhengyao; Li, Chao; Zhang, Zhengcai; Li, Xiaolan; Li, Lulu

2018-02-01

Research on the wind environment variation improves our understanding of the process of climate change. This study examines temporal variation of the near-surface wind environment and investigates its possible causes in the Mu Us Dunefield of Northern China from 1960 to 2014, through analyzing the meteorological data from seven stations and the land use and land cover (LUCC) change data with 100 m resolution. The wind speed had a widespread significant decrease with an average trend of - 0.111 m s-1 decade-1, although the rate of decrease differed seasonally. This negative trend was also found in the winds that were above a 5 m s-1 threshold, as well as the percentage of their days, which influenced the wind speed change more strongly. Overall, 88.69% of the annual decrease resulted from decreases in the maximum wind speed, and the percentage even reached 100% in autumn and winter. We further found that the drift potential decreased at decadal time scales, mainly focusing on three prevailing wind groups: the northerly, westerly, and southerly winds. This revealed the weakened East Asian monsoon and westerly circulation in the lower atmosphere. Against the context of climate warming, the decline of wind speeds in spring was closely related to the greenhouse gas, while the winter decline was closely associated with the aerosol or atmospheric dust. Moreover, the LUCC change showed the decreased areas of sand land and the increased areas of vegetation-covered land, which increased the ground surface roughness and was another reason for the weakened wind environment.

Design tradeoffs for trend assessment in aquatic biological monitoring programs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gurtz, Martin E.; Van Sickle, John; Carlisle, Daren M.; Paulsen, Steven G.

2013-01-01

Assessments of long-term (multiyear) temporal trends in biological monitoring programs are generally undertaken without an adequate understanding of the temporal variability of biological communities. When the sources and levels of variability are unknown, managers cannot make informed choices in sampling design to achieve monitoring goals in a cost-effective manner. We evaluated different trend sampling designs by estimating components of both short- and long-term variability in biological indicators of water quality in streams. Invertebrate samples were collected from 32 sites—9 urban, 6 agricultural, and 17 relatively undisturbed (reference) streams—distributed throughout the United States. Between 5 and 12 yearly samples were collected at each site during the period 1993–2008, plus 2 samples within a 10-week index period during either 2007 or 2008. These data allowed calculation of four sources of variance for invertebrate indicators: among sites, among years within sites, interaction among sites and years (site-specific annual variation), and among samples collected within an index period at a site (residual). When estimates of these variance components are known, changes to sampling design can be made to improve trend detection. Design modifications that result in the ability to detect the smallest trend with the fewest samples are, from most to least effective: (1) increasing the number of years in the sampling period (duration of the monitoring program), (2) decreasing the interval between samples, and (3) increasing the number of repeat-visit samples per year (within an index period). This order of improvement in trend detection, which achieves the greatest gain for the fewest samples, is the same whether trends are assessed at an individual site or an average trend of multiple sites. In multiple-site surveys, increasing the number of sites has an effect similar to that of decreasing the sampling interval; the benefit of adding sites is greater when a new set of different sites is selected for each sampling effort than when the same sites are sampled each time. Understanding variance components of the ecological attributes of interest can lead to more cost-effective monitoring designs to detect trends.

Spatial and temporal variation in daily temperature indices in summer and winter seasons over India (1969-2012)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Naresh; Jaswal, A. K.; Mohapatra, M.; Kore, P. A.

2017-08-01

Spatial and temporal variations in summer and winter extreme temperature indices are studied by using daily maximum and minimum temperatures data from 227 surface meteorological stations well distributed over India for the period 1969-2012. For this purpose, time series for six extreme temperature indices namely, hot days (HD), very hot days (VHD), extremely hot days (EHD), cold nights (CN), very cold nights (VCN), and extremely cold nights (ECN) are calculated for all the stations. In addition, time series for mean extreme temperature indices of summer and winter seasons are also analyzed. Study reveals high variability in spatial distribution of threshold temperatures of extreme temperature indices over the country. In general, increasing trends are observed in summer hot days indices and decreasing trends in winter cold night indices over most parts of the country. The results obtained in this study indicate warming in summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures over India. Averaged over India, trends in summer hot days indices HD, VHD, and EHD are significantly increasing (+1.0, +0.64, and +0.32 days/decade, respectively) and winter cold night indices CN, VCN, and ECN are significantly decreasing (-0.93, -0.47, and -0.15 days/decade, respectively). Also, it is observed that the impact of extreme temperature is higher along the west coast for summer and east coast for winter.

Prescriptions, Nonmedical Use, and Emergency Department Visits Involving Prescription Stimulants

PubMed Central

Chen, Lian-Yu; Crum, Rosa M.; Strain, Eric C.; CalebAlexander, G.; Kaufmann, Christopher; Mojtabai, Ramin

2018-01-01

Objective Little is known regarding the temporal trends in prescription, nonmedical use and emergency department (ED) visits involving prescription stimulants in the United States. We aimed to examine the three national trends involving dextroamphetamine-amphetamin (Adderall) and methylphenidate in adults and adolescents. Method Three national surveys conducted between 2006-2011 were used: National Disease and Therapeutic Index (NDTI), a survey of office-based practices, National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), a population survey of substance use, and Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN), a survey of ED visits. Ordinary least square regression was used to examine temporal changes over time and the associations between these three trends. Results In adolescents, treatment visits involving dextroamphetamine-amphetamine and methylphenidate decreased over time; nonmedical dextroamphetamine-amphetamine use remained stable while nonmedical methylphenidate use declined by 54.4% in 6 years. ED visits involving either medication remained stable. In adults, treatment visits involving dextroamphetamine-amphetamine remained unchanged while nonmedical use went up by 67% and ED visits went up by 156%. These three trends involving methylphenidate remained unchanged. The major source for both medications was a friend or relative across age groups; two-thirds of these friends/relatives had obtained the medication from a physician. Conclusions Trends of prescriptions for stimulants do not correspond to trends in reports of nonmedical use and ED visits. Increased nonmedical stimulant use may not be simply attributed to increased prescribing trends. Future studies should focus on deeper understanding of the proportion, risk factors and motivations for drug diversions. PMID:26890573

NATIONAL STATUS AND TRENDS PROGRAM

EPA Science Inventory

Since 1984, the National Status and Trends (NS&T) Program has monitored, on a national scale, spatial and temporal trends of chemical contamination and biological responses to that contamination. Temporal trends are being monitored through the Mussel Watch project that analyzes m...

Temporal trends in the acidity of precipitation and surface waters of New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peters, Norman E.; Schroeder, Roy A.; Troutman, David E.

1982-01-01

Statistical analyses of precipitation data from a nine-station monitoring network indicate little change in pH from 1965-78 within New York State as a whole but suggest that pH of bulk precipitation has decreased in the western part of the State by approximately 0.2 pH units since 1965 and increased in the eastern part by a similar amount. This trend is equivalent to an annual change in hydrogen-ion concentration of 0.2 microequivalents per liter. An average annual increase in precipitation quantity of 2 to 3 percent since 1965 has resulted in an increased acid load in the western and central parts of the State. During 1965-78, sulfate concentration in precipitation decreased an average of 1-4 percent annually. In general, no trend in nitrate was detected. Calculated trends in hydrogen-ion concentration do not correlate with measured trends of sulfate and nitrate, which suggests variable neutralization of hydrogen ion, possibly by particles from dry deposition. Neutralization has produced an increase of about 0.3 pH units in nonurban areas and 0.7 pH units in urban areas. Statistical analyses of chemical data from several streams throughout New York suggest that sulfate concentrations decreased an average of 1 to 4 percent per year. This decrease is comparable to the sulfate decrease in precipitation during the same period. In most areas of the State, chemical contributions from urbanization and farming, as well as the neutralizing effect of carbonate soils, conceal whatever effects acid precipitation may have on pH of streams.

Trends in atmospheric evaporative demand in Great Britain using high-resolution meteorological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, Emma L.; Blyth, Eleanor M.; Clark, Douglas B.; Finch, Jon; Rudd, Alison C.

2017-02-01

Observations of climate are often available on very different spatial scales from observations of the natural environments and resources that are affected by climate change. In order to help bridge the gap between these scales using modelling, a new dataset of daily meteorological variables was created at 1 km resolution over Great Britain for the years 1961-2012, by interpolating coarser resolution climate data and including the effects of local topography. These variables were used to calculate atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) at the same spatial and temporal resolution. Two functions that represent AED were chosen: one is a standard form of potential evapotranspiration (PET) and the other is a derived PET measure used by hydrologists that includes the effect of water intercepted by the canopy (PETI). Temporal trends in these functions were calculated, with PET found to be increasing in all regions, and at an overall rate of 0.021 ± 0.021 mm day-1 decade-1 in Great Britain. PETI was found to be increasing at a rate of 0.019 ± 0.020 mm day-1 decade-1 in Great Britain, but this was not statistically significant. However, there was a trend in PETI in England of 0.023 ± 0.023 mm day-1 decade-1. The trends were found to vary by season, with spring PET increasing by 0.043 ± 0.019 mm day-1 decade-1 (0.038 ± 0.018 mm day-1 decade-1 when the interception correction is included) in Great Britain, while there is no statistically significant trend in other seasons. The trends were attributed analytically to trends in the climate variables; the overall positive trend was predominantly driven by rising air temperature, although rising specific humidity had a negative effect on the trend. Recasting the analysis in terms of relative humidity revealed that the overall effect is that falling relative humidity causes the PET to rise. Increasing downward short- and longwave radiation made an overall positive contribution to the PET trend, while decreasing wind speed made a negative contribution to the trend in PET. The trend in spring PET was particularly strong due to a strong decrease in relative humidity and increase in downward shortwave radiation in the spring.

Causes and emerging trends of childhood blindness: findings from schools for the blind in Southeast Nigeria.

PubMed

Aghaji, Ada; Okoye, Obiekwe; Bowman, Richard

2015-06-01

To ascertain the causes severe visual impairment and blindness (SVI/BL) in schools for the blind in southeast Nigeria and to evaluate temporal trends. All children who developed blindness at <15 years of age in all the three schools for the blind in southeast Nigeria were examined. All the data were recorded on a WHO/Prevention of Blindness (WHO/PBL) form entered into a Microsoft Access database and transferred to STATA V.12.1 for analysis. To estimate temporal trends in causes of blindness, older (>15 years) children were compared with younger (≤15 years) children. 124 children were identified with SVI/BL. The most common anatomical site of blindness was the lens (33.9%). Overall, avoidable blindness accounted for 73.4% of all blindness. Exploring trends in SVI/BL between children ≤15 years of age and those >15 years old, this study shows a reduction in avoidable blindness but an increase in cortical visual impairment in the younger age group. The results from this study show a statistically significant decrease in avoidable blindness in children ≤15 years old. Corneal blindness appears to be decreasing but cortical visual impairment seems to be emerging in the younger age group. Appropriate strategies for the prevention of avoidable childhood blindness in Nigeria need to be developed and implemented. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Agriculture-related trends in groundwater quality of the glacial deposits aquifer, central Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saad, D.A.

2008-01-01

Measuring and understanding trends in groundwater quality is necessary for determining whether changes in land-management practices have an effect on groundwater quality. This paper describes an approach that was used to measure and understand trends using data from two groundwater studies conducted in central Wisconsin as part of the USGS NAWQA program. One of the key components of this approach, determining the age of sampled groundwater, gave a temporal component to the snapshots of water quality that were obtained through synoptic-sampling efforts. This approach can be used at other locations where groundwater quality data are collected, groundwater age can be determined, and associated temporal data are available. Results of these studies indicate measured concentrations of nitrate and atrazine plus deethylatrazine were correlated to historical patterns of fertilizer and atrazine use. Concentrations of nitrate in groundwater have increased over time; concentrations of atrazine plus deethylatrazine increased and then decreased. Concentrations of nitrate also were correlated to screen depth below the water level and concentrations of dissolved O2; concentrations of atrazine plus deethylatrazine were correlated to dissolved O2 and annual precipitation. To measure trends in concentrations of atrazine plus deethylatrazine, the data, collected over a near-decadal period, were adjusted to account for changes in laboratory-reporting levels and analytical recoveries. Only after accounting for these changes was it apparent that the median concentrations of atrazine plus deethylatrazine decreased over the near-decadal interval between sampling efforts. Copyright ?? 2008 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal measures of perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in serum of Gullah African Americans in South Carolina: 2003-2013.

PubMed

Gribble, Matthew O; Bartell, Scott M; Kannan, Kurunthachalam; Wu, Qian; Fair, Patricia A; Kamen, Diane L

2015-11-01

Charleston Harbor has elevated concentrations of PFAS in dolphins, but local human exposure data are limited. We sought to describe PFAS serum concentrations' temporal trends among Gullah African American residents of coastal South Carolina. Longitudinal measures of PFAS in blood serum from a Gullah clinical sample, without lupus, were examined using spaghetti plots and visit-to-visit change scores (e.g., differences in concentrations between visits) among the 68 participants with repeated measures available. We also modeled population-level trends among the 71 participants with any data using proportionate percentile models, accounting for clustering through robust standard errors. In a post-hoc analysis we examined heterogeneity of temporal trends by age through mixed-effects models for the log-transformed PFAS compounds. Population concentrations of PFOS dropped approximately 9 (95% CI: 8, 10) percent each year over 2003-2013. This was concordant with individual PFOS trajectories (median PFOS change score -21.7 ng/g wet weight, interquartile range of PFOS change scores: -32.8, -14.9) and reports for other populations over this time period. Several other compounds including PFOA, PFHxS, and PFuNDA also showed a population-level decrease. However, examination of individual trajectories suggested substantial heterogeneity. Post-hoc analyses indicated that PFAS trajectories were heterogeneous by age. Many PFAS compounds are decreasing in a sample of Gullah African Americans from coastal South Carolina. There may be age differences in the elimination kinetics of PFASs. The possible role of age as a modifier of PFAS serum trends merits further research. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term citizen-collected data reveal geographical patterns and temporal trends in lake water clarity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lottig, Noah R.; Wagner, Tyler; Henry, Emily N.; Cheruvelil, Kendra Spence; Webster, Katherine E.; Downing, John A.; Stow, Craig A.

2014-01-01

We compiled a lake-water clarity database using publically available, citizen volunteer observations made between 1938 and 2012 across eight states in the Upper Midwest, USA. Our objectives were to determine (1) whether temporal trends in lake-water clarity existed across this large geographic area and (2) whether trends were related to the lake-specific characteristics of latitude, lake size, or time period the lake was monitored. Our database consisted of >140,000 individual Secchi observations from 3,251 lakes that we summarized per lake-year, resulting in 21,020 summer averages. Using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, we found approximately a 1% per year increase in water clarity (quantified as Secchi depth) for the entire population of lakes. On an individual lake basis, 7% of lakes showed increased water clarity and 4% showed decreased clarity. Trend direction and strength were related to latitude and median sample date. Lakes in the southern part of our study-region had lower average annual summer water clarity, more negative long-term trends, and greater inter-annual variability in water clarity compared to northern lakes. Increasing trends were strongest for lakes with median sample dates earlier in the period of record (1938–2012). Our ability to identify specific mechanisms for these trends is currently hampered by the lack of a large, multi-thematic database of variables that drive water clarity (e.g., climate, land use/cover). Our results demonstrate, however, that citizen science can provide the critical monitoring data needed to address environmental questions at large spatial and long temporal scales. Collaborations among citizens, research scientists, and government agencies may be important for developing the data sources and analytical tools necessary to move toward an understanding of the factors influencing macro-scale patterns such as those shown here for lake water clarity.

Long-Term Citizen-Collected Data Reveal Geographical Patterns and Temporal Trends in Lake Water Clarity

PubMed Central

Lottig, Noah R.; Wagner, Tyler; Norton Henry, Emily; Spence Cheruvelil, Kendra; Webster, Katherine E.; Downing, John A.; Stow, Craig A.

2014-01-01

We compiled a lake-water clarity database using publically available, citizen volunteer observations made between 1938 and 2012 across eight states in the Upper Midwest, USA. Our objectives were to determine (1) whether temporal trends in lake-water clarity existed across this large geographic area and (2) whether trends were related to the lake-specific characteristics of latitude, lake size, or time period the lake was monitored. Our database consisted of >140,000 individual Secchi observations from 3,251 lakes that we summarized per lake-year, resulting in 21,020 summer averages. Using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, we found approximately a 1% per year increase in water clarity (quantified as Secchi depth) for the entire population of lakes. On an individual lake basis, 7% of lakes showed increased water clarity and 4% showed decreased clarity. Trend direction and strength were related to latitude and median sample date. Lakes in the southern part of our study-region had lower average annual summer water clarity, more negative long-term trends, and greater inter-annual variability in water clarity compared to northern lakes. Increasing trends were strongest for lakes with median sample dates earlier in the period of record (1938–2012). Our ability to identify specific mechanisms for these trends is currently hampered by the lack of a large, multi-thematic database of variables that drive water clarity (e.g., climate, land use/cover). Our results demonstrate, however, that citizen science can provide the critical monitoring data needed to address environmental questions at large spatial and long temporal scales. Collaborations among citizens, research scientists, and government agencies may be important for developing the data sources and analytical tools necessary to move toward an understanding of the factors influencing macro-scale patterns such as those shown here for lake water clarity. PMID:24788722

Mortality trends among Japanese dialysis patients, 1988-2013: a joinpoint regression analysis.

PubMed

Wakasugi, Minako; Kazama, Junichiro James; Narita, Ichiei

2016-09-01

Evaluation of mortality trends in dialysis patients is important for improving their prognoses. The present study aimed to examine temporal trends in deaths (all-cause, cardiovascular, noncardiovascular and the five leading causes) among Japanese dialysis patients. Mortality data were extracted from the Japanese Society of Dialysis Therapy registry. Age-standardized mortality rates were calculated by direct standardization against the 2013 dialysis population. The average annual percentage of change (APC) and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) were computed for trends using joinpoint regression analysis. A total of 469 324 deaths occurred, of which 25.9% were from cardiac failure, 17.5% from infectious disease, 10.2% from cerebrovascular disorders, 8.6% from malignant tumors and 5.6% from cardiac infarction. The joinpoint trend for all-cause mortality decreased significantly, by -3.7% (95% CI -4.2 to -3.2) per year from 1988 through 2000, then decreased more gradually, by -1.4% (95% CI -1.7 to -1.2) per year during 2000-13. The improved mortality rates were mainly due to decreased deaths from cardiovascular disease, with mortality rates due to noncardiovascular disease outnumbering those of cardiovascular disease in the last decade. Among the top five causes of death, cardiac failure has shown a marked decrease in mortality rate. However, the rates due to infectious disease have remained stable during the study period [APC 0.1 (95% CI -0.2-0.3)]. Significant progress has been made, particularly with regard to the decrease in age-standardized mortality rates. The risk of cardiovascular death has decreased, while the risk of death from infection has remained unchanged for 25 years. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Wavelet Analyses of Oil Prices, USD Variations and Impact on Logistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melek, M.; Tokgozlu, A.; Aslan, Z.

2009-07-01

This paper is related with temporal variations of historical oil prices and Dollar and Euro in Turkey. Daily data based on OECD and Central Bank of Turkey records beginning from 1946 has been considered. 1D-continuous wavelets and wavelet packets analysis techniques have been applied on data. Wavelet techniques help to detect abrupt changing's, increasing and decreasing trends of data. Estimation of variables has been presented by using linear regression estimation techniques. The results of this study have been compared with the small and large scale effects. Transportation costs of track show a similar variation with fuel prices. The second part of the paper is related with estimation of imports, exports, costs, total number of vehicles and annual variations by considering temporal variation of oil prices and Dollar currency in Turkey. Wavelet techniques offer a user friendly methodology to interpret some local effects on increasing trend of imports and exports data.

Sedimentary records of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in remote lakes across the Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Yang, Ruiqiang; Xie, Ting; Li, An; Yang, Handong; Turner, Simon; Wu, Guangjian; Jing, Chuanyong

2016-07-01

Sediment cores from five lakes across the Tibetan Plateau were used as natural archives to study the time trends of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). The depositional flux of PAHs generally showed an increasing trend from the deeper layers towards the upper layer sediments. The fluxes of PAHs were low with little variability before the 1950s, and then gradually increased to the late 1980s, with a faster increasing rate after the 1990s. This temporal pattern is clearly different compared with those remote lakes across the European mountains when PAHs started to decrease during the period 1960s-1980s. The difference of the temporal trend was attributed to differences in the economic development stages and energy structure between these regions. PAHs are dominated by the lighter 2&3-ring homologues with the averaged percentage over 87%, while it is notable that the percentage of heavier 4-6 ring PAHs generally increased in recent years, which suggests the contribution of local high-temperature combustion sources becoming more predominant. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Convergent Findings of Altered Functional and Structural Brain Connectivity in Individuals with High Functioning Autism: A Multimodal MRI Study

PubMed Central

Samson, Andrea C.; Kirsch, Valerie; Blautzik, Janusch; Grothe, Michel; Erat, Okan; Hegenloh, Michael; Coates, Ute; Reiser, Maximilian F.; Hennig-Fast, Kristina; Meindl, Thomas

2013-01-01

Brain tissue changes in autism spectrum disorders seem to be rather subtle and widespread than anatomically distinct. Therefore a multimodal, whole brain imaging technique appears to be an appropriate approach to investigate whether alterations in white and gray matter integrity relate to consistent changes in functional resting state connectivity in individuals with high functioning autism (HFA). We applied diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), voxel-based morphometry (VBM) and resting state functional connectivity magnetic resonance imaging (fcMRI) to assess differences in brain structure and function between 12 individuals with HFA (mean age 35.5, SD 11.4, 9 male) and 12 healthy controls (mean age 33.3, SD 9.0, 8 male). Psychological measures of empathy and emotionality were obtained and correlated with the most significant DTI, VBM and fcMRI findings. We found three regions of convergent structural and functional differences between HFA participants and controls. The right temporo-parietal junction area and the left frontal lobe showed decreased fractional anisotropy (FA) values along with decreased functional connectivity and a trend towards decreased gray matter volume. The bilateral superior temporal gyrus displayed significantly decreased functional connectivity that was accompanied by the strongest trend of gray matter volume decrease in the temporal lobe of HFA individuals. FA decrease in the right temporo-parietal region was correlated with psychological measurements of decreased emotionality. In conclusion, our results indicate common sites of structural and functional alterations in higher order association cortex areas and may therefore provide multimodal imaging support to the long-standing hypothesis of autism as a disorder of impaired higher-order multisensory integration. PMID:23825652

Hydro-meteorological trends in the Gidabo catchment of the Rift Valley Lakes Basin of Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belihu, Mamuye; Abate, Brook; Tekleab, Sirak; Bewket, Woldeamlak

2018-04-01

The global and regional variability and changes of climate and stream flows are likely to have significant influence on water resource availability. The magnitude and impacts of climate variability and change differs spatially and temporally. This study examines the long term hydroclimatic changes, analyses of the hydro-climate variability and detect whether there exist significant trend or not in the Gidabo catchment, rift valley lakes basin of Ethiopia. Precipitation, temperature and stream flow time series data were used in monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. The precipitation and temperature data span is between 1982 and 2014 and that of stream flow is between 1976 and 2006. To detect trends the analysis were done by using Mann Kendal (MK), Sen's graphical method and to detect change point using the Pettit test. The comparison of trend analysis between MK trend test and Sen graphical method results depict mostly similar pattern. The annual rainfall trends exhibited a significant decrease by about 12 mm per year in the upstream, which is largely driven by the significant decrease in the peak season rainfall. The Pettit test revealed that the years 1997 and 2007 were the change points. It is noted that the rise of temperature over a catchment might have decreased the availability of soil moisture which resulted in less runoff. The temperature analyses also revealed that the catchment was getting warmer; particularly in the upstream. The minimum temperature trend showed a significant increase about 0.08°c per annum. There is generally a decreasing trend in stream flow. The monthly stream flow also exhibited a decreasing trend in February, March and September. The decline in annual and seasonal rainfall and the increase in temperature lead to more evaporation and directly affecting the stream flow negatively. This trend compounded with the growth of population and increasing demand for irrigation water exacerbates the competing demand for water resources. It thus calls for prudence in devising appropriate intervention in the planning and sustainable development of the basin water resources.

Predicting temporal trends in total absenteeism rates for civil service employees of a federal public health agency.

PubMed

Spears, D Ross; McNeil, Carrie; Warnock, Eli; Trapp, Jonathan; Oyinloye, Oluremi; Whitehurst, Vanessa; Decker, K C; Chapman, Sandy; Campbell, Morris; Meechan, Paul

2014-06-01

This study evaluates the predictability in temporal absences trends due to all causes (total absenteeism) among employees at a federal agency. The objective is to determine how leave trends vary within the year, and determine whether trends are predictable. Ten years of absenteeism data from an attendance system were analyzed for rates of total absence. Trends over a 10-year period followed predictable and regular patterns during a given year that correspond to major holiday periods. Temporal trends in leave among small, medium, and large facilities compared favorably with the agency as a whole. Temporal trends in total absenteeism rates for an organization can be determined using its attendance system. The ability to predict employee absenteeism rates can be extremely helpful for management in optimizing business performance and ensuring that an organization meets its mission.

Spatial and temporal trends in contaminant concentrations in Hexagenia nymphs following a coal ash spill at the Tennessee Valley Authority's Kingston Fossil Plant

DOE PAGES

Baker, Tyler F; Jett, Robert Trent; Smith, John G.; ...

2016-02-25

A dike failure at the Tennessee Valley Authority Kingston Fossil Plant in East Tennessee, United States, in December 2008, released approximately 4.1 million m3 of coal ash into the Emory River. From 2009 through 2012, samples of mayfly nymphs ( Hexagenia bilineata) were collected each spring from sites in the Emory, Clinch, and Tennessee Rivers upstream and downstream of the spill. Samples were analyzed for 17 metals. Concentrations of metals were generally highest the first 2 miles downstream of the spill, and then decreased with increasing distance from the spill. Arsenic, B, Ba, Be, Mo, Sb, Se, Sr, and Vmore » appeared to have strong ash signatures, whereas Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, and Pb appeared to be associated with ash and other sources. Furthermore, the concentrations for most of these contaminants were modest and are unlikely to cause widespread negative ecological effects. Trends in Hg, Cd, and Zn suggested little (Hg) or no (Cd, Zn) association with ash. Temporal trends suggested that concentrations of ash-related contaminants began to subside after 2010, but because of the limited time period of that analysis (4 yr), further monitoring is needed to verify this trend. The present study provides important information on the magnitude of contaminant exposure to aquatic receptors from a major coal ash spill, as well as spatial and temporal trends for transport of the associated contaminants in a large open watershed. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:1159 1171. Published 2015 Wiley Periodicals Inc. on behalf of SETAC. This article is a US government work and, as such, is in the public domain in the United States of America.« less

Complex responses of spring alpine vegetation phenology to snow cover dynamics over the Tibetan Plateau, China.

PubMed

Wang, Siyuan; Wang, Xiaoyue; Chen, Guangsheng; Yang, Qichun; Wang, Bin; Ma, Yuanxu; Shen, Ming

2017-09-01

Snow cover dynamics are considered to play a key role on spring phenological shifts in the high-latitude, so investigating responses of spring phenology to snow cover dynamics is becoming an increasingly important way to identify and predict global ecosystem dynamics. In this study, we quantified the temporal trends and spatial variations of spring phenology and snow cover across the Tibetan Plateau by calibrating and analyzing time series of the NOAA AVHRR-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) during 1983-2012. We also examined how snow cover dynamics affect the spatio-temporal pattern of spring alpine vegetation phenology over the plateau. Our results indicated that 52.21% of the plateau experienced a significant advancing trend in the beginning of vegetation growing season (BGS) and 34.30% exhibited a delaying trend. Accordingly, the snow cover duration days (SCD) and snow cover melt date (SCM) showed similar patterns with a decreasing trend in the west and an increasing trend in the southeast, but the start date of snow cover (SCS) showed an opposite pattern. Meanwhile, the spatial patterns of the BGS, SCD, SCS and SCM varied in accordance with the gradients of temperature, precipitation and topography across the plateau. The response relationship of spring phenology to snow cover dynamics varied within different climate, terrain and alpine plant community zones, and the spatio-temporal response patterns were primarily controlled by the long-term local heat-water conditions and topographic conditions. Moreover, temperature and precipitation played a profound impact on diverse responses of spring phenology to snow cover dynamics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal cluster detection of chickenpox in Valencia, Spain in the period 2008-2012.

PubMed

Iftimi, Adina; Martínez-Ruiz, Francisco; Míguez Santiyán, Ana; Montes, Francisco

2015-05-18

Chickenpox is a highly contagious airborne disease caused by Varicella zoster, which affects nearly all non-immune children worldwide with an annual incidence estimated at 80-90 million cases. To analyze the spatiotemporal pattern of the chickenpox incidence in the city of Valencia, Spain two complementary statistical approaches were used. First, we evaluated the existence of clusters and spatio-temporal interaction; secondly, we used this information to find the locations of the spatio-temporal clusters via the space-time permutation model. The first method used detects any aggregation in our data but does not provide the spatial and temporal information. The second method gives the locations, areas and time-frame for the spatio-temporal clusters. An overall decreasing time trend, a pronounced 12-monthly periodicity and two complementary periods were observed. Several areas with high incidence, surrounding the center of the city were identified. The existence of aggregation in time and space was observed, and a number of spatio-temporal clusters were located.

Spatial and temporal trends of reference crop evapotranspiration and its influential variables in Yangtze River Delta, eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yu; Xu, Youpeng; Wang, Yuefeng; Wu, Lei; Li, Guang; Song, Song

2017-11-01

Reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) is one of the most important links in hydrologic circulation and greatly affects regional agricultural production and water resource management. Its variation has drawn more and more attention in the context of global warming. We used the Penman-Monteith method of the Food and Agriculture Organization, based on meteorological factors such as air temperature, sunshine duration, wind speed, and relative humidity to calculate the ETo over 46 meteorological stations located in the Yangtze River Delta, eastern China, from 1957 to 2014. The spatial distributions and temporal trends in ETo were analyzed based on the modified Mann-Kendall trend test and linear regression method, while ArcGIS software was employed to produce the distribution maps. The multiple stepwise regression method was applied in the analysis of the meteorological variable time series to identify the causes of any observed trends in ETo. The results indicated that annual ETo showed an obvious spatial pattern of higher values in the north than in the south. Annual increasing trends were found at 34 meteorological stations (73.91 % of the total), which were mainly located in the southeast. Among them, 12 (26.09 % of the total) stations showed significant trends. We saw a dominance of increasing trends in the monthly ETo except for January, February, and August. The high value zone of monthly ETo appeared in the northwest from February to June, mid-south area from July to August, and southeast coastal area from September to January. The research period was divided into two stages—stage I (1957-1989) and stage II (1990-2014)—to investigate the long-term temporal ETo variation. In stage I, almost 85 % of the total stations experienced decreasing trends, while more than half of the meteorological stations showed significant increasing trends in annual ETo during stage II except in February and September. Relative humidity, wind speed, and sunshine duration were identified as the most dominant meteorological variables influencing annual ETo changes. The results are expected to assist water resource managers and policy makers in making better planning decisions in the research region.

Size-frequency distribution, growth, and mortality of snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) and arctic lyre crab (Hyas coarctatus) in the chukchi sea from 2009 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groß, Jasmin; Konar, Brenda; Brey, Thomas; Grebmeier, Jacqueline M.

2017-10-01

The snow crab Chionoecetes opilio and Arctic lyre crab Hyas coarctatus are prominent members of the Chukchi Sea epifaunal community. A better understanding of their life history will aid in determining their role in this ecosystem in light of the changing climate and resource development. In this study, the size frequency distribution, growth, and mortality of these two crab species was examined in 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2013 to determine temporal and spatial patterns within the eastern Chukchi Sea, and to identify potential environmental drivers of the observed patterns. Temporally, the mean size of both sexes of C. opilio and H. coarctatus decreased significantly from 2009 to 2013, with the number of rare maximum sized organisms decreasing significantly to near absence in the latter two study years. Spatially, the mean size of male and female crabs of both species showed a latitudinal trend, decreasing from south to north in the investigation area. Growth of both sexes of C. opilio and H. coarctatus was linear over the sampled size range, and mortality was highest in the latter two study years. Life history features of both species related to different environmental parameters in different years, ranging from temperature, the sediment carbon to nitrogen ratio of the organic content, and sediment grain size distribution. Likely explanations for the observed temporal and spatial variability are ontogenetic migrations of mature crabs to warmer areas possibly due to cooler water temperatures in the latter two study years, or interannual fluctuations, which have been reported for C. opilio populations in other areas where successful waves of recruitment were estimated to occur in eight year intervals. Further research is suggested to determine if the spatial and temporal patterns found in this study are part of the natural variability in this system or if they are an indication of long-term trends.

40 years of progress in female cancer death risk: a Bayesian spatio-temporal mapping analysis in Switzerland.

PubMed

Herrmann, Christian; Ess, Silvia; Thürlimann, Beat; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Vounatsou, Penelope

2015-10-09

In the past decades, mortality of female gender related cancers declined in Switzerland and other developed countries. Differences in the decrease and in spatial patterns within Switzerland have been reported according to urbanisation and language region, and remain controversial. We aimed to investigate geographical and temporal trends of breast, ovarian, cervical and uterine cancer mortality, assess whether differential trends exist and to provide updated results until 2011. Breast, ovarian, cervical and uterine cancer mortality and population data for Switzerland in the period 1969-2011 was retrieved from the Swiss Federal Statistical office (FSO). Cases were grouped into <55 year olds, 55-74 year olds and 75+ year olds. The geographical unit of analysis was the municipality. To explore age- specific spatio-temporal patterns we fitted Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal models on subgroup-specific death rates indirectly standardized by national references. We used linguistic region and degree of urbanisation as covariates. Female cancer mortality continuously decreased in terms of rates in all age groups and cancer sites except for ovarian cancer in 75+ year olds, especially since 1990 onwards. Contrary to other reports, we found no systematic difference between language regions. Urbanisation as a proxy for access to and quality of medical services, education and health consciousness seemed to have no influence on cancer mortality with the exception of uterine and ovarian cancer in specific age groups. We observed no obvious spatial pattern of mortality common for all cancer sites. Rate reduction in cervical cancer was even stronger than for other cancer sites. Female gender related cancer mortality is continuously decreasing in Switzerland since 1990. Geographical differences are small, present on a regional or canton-overspanning level, and different for each cancer site and age group. No general significant association with cantonal or language region borders could be observed.

Association analysis between spatiotemporal variation of vegetation greenness and precipitation/temperature in the Yangtze River Basin (China).

PubMed

Cui, Lifang; Wang, Lunche; Singh, Ramesh P; Lai, Zhongping; Jiang, Liangliang; Yao, Rui

2018-05-23

The variation in vegetation greenness provides good understanding of the sustainable management and monitoring of land surface ecosystems. The present paper discusses the spatial-temporal changes in vegetation and controlling factors in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) using Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the period 2001-2013. Theil-Sen Median trend analysis, Pearson correlation coefficients, and residual analysis have been used, which shows decreasing trend of the annual mean NDVI over the whole YRB. Spatially, the regions with significant decreasing trends were mainly located in parts of central YRB, and pronounced increasing trends were observed in parts of the eastern and western YRB. The mean NDVI during spring and summer seasons increased, while it decreased during autumn and winter seasons. The seasonal mean NDVI shows spatial heterogeneity due to the vegetation types. The correlation analysis shows a positive relation between NDVI and temperature over most of the YRB, whereas NDVI and precipitation show a negative correlation. The residual analysis shows an increase in NDVI in parts of eastern and western YRB and the decrease in NDVI in the small part of Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and the mid-western YRB due to human activities. In general, climate factors were the principal drivers of NDVI variation in YRB in recent years.

Pediatric Asthma Mortality and Hospitalization Trends Across Asia Pacific Relationship With Asthma Drug Utilization Patterns

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background The wide variability in prevalence of childhood asthma across Asia Pacific is well documented, but less is known about its trends in mortality and hospitalization. Objectives To examine pediatric asthma mortality and hospitalization trends of selected countries across Asia Pacific, and also patterns of asthma drug utilization. Materials and Methods Mortality and population data were sourced from the World Health Organization's mortality database. Data on hospitalization were obtained by direct inquiry and from government and scientific publications. Drug use for asthma was expressed as a controller-to-reliever (C:R) ratio (ie, units of inhaled corticosteroids/units of short-acting β-agonists, sold in each country). Time-series regression analyses were used to examine temporal patterns and study association between deaths, hospitalizations, and drug use. Results Japan showed a decreasing trend in pediatric asthma mortality whereas an increase was observed in Thailand. Hospitalizations decreased in Australia and Singapore but increased in Taiwan, Republic of China. C:R ratios increased significantly across the countries. Conclusions Mixed trends in pediatric asthma mortality and hospitalization rates were observed, which coincided with a uniform increase in C:R ratios. This may reflect importance of other aspects of asthma management besides pharmacotherapy. PMID:23283014

Temporal trends in self harm and aggression on a paediatric mental health ward.

PubMed

Berntsen, Ellen; Starling, Jean; Durheim, Earle; Hainsworth, Cassandra; de Kloet, Liselotte; Chapman, Lucy; Hancock, Karen

2011-02-01

The aim of this paper is to describe trends in aggression and self harm on a mental health inpatient unit for children and adolescents between January 2006 and August 2009. Various ward interventions and the ward milieu were evaluated as possible explanatory factors for trends. This was a retrospective study whereby incidents of aggression, self harm and seclusion were obtained from a computerized Incident Information Management System (IIMS) database. Trends in incidents were analysed using linear regression analyses. Over a 44-month period, 292 incidents of aggression and 139 incidents of self harm were reported. The use of seclusion and the number of aggressive incidents both significantly decreased over time. Trends suggested a positive relationship between the introduction of restraint training, changes in leadership and full staff complement, and a reduction in aggression and seclusion. Although the findings are limited by their retrospective nature and reliance on formal records, this study suggests that different factors can contribute to decrease the incidence of adverse events on a psychiatric ward. Future prospective research is needed to assess the effectiveness of different interventions in both the prevention and management of self harm, aggression and seclusion in child and adolescent inpatient units.

Spatial analysis of precipitation time series over the Upper Indus Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latif, Yasir; Yaoming, Ma; Yaseen, Muhammad

2018-01-01

The upper Indus basin (UIB) holds one of the most substantial river systems in the world, contributing roughly half of the available surface water in Pakistan. This water provides necessary support for agriculture, domestic consumption, and hydropower generation; all critical for a stable economy in Pakistan. This study has identified trends, analyzed variability, and assessed changes in both annual and seasonal precipitation during four time series, identified herein as: (first) 1961-2013, (second) 1971-2013, (third) 1981-2013, and (fourth) 1991-2013, over the UIB. This study investigated spatial characteristics of the precipitation time series over 15 weather stations and provides strong evidence of annual precipitation by determining significant trends at 6 stations (Astore, Chilas, Dir, Drosh, Gupis, and Kakul) out of the 15 studied stations, revealing a significant negative trend during the fourth time series. Our study also showed significantly increased precipitation at Bunji, Chitral, and Skardu, whereas such trends at the rest of the stations appear insignificant. Moreover, our study found that seasonal precipitation decreased at some locations (at a high level of significance), as well as periods of scarce precipitation during all four seasons. The observed decreases in precipitation appear stronger and more significant in autumn; having 10 stations exhibiting decreasing precipitation during the fourth time series, with respect to time and space. Furthermore, the observed decreases in precipitation appear robust and more significant for regions at high elevation (>1300 m). This analysis concludes that decreasing precipitation dominated the UIB, both temporally and spatially including in the higher areas.

Temporal trend studies on tetra- and pentabrominated diphenyl ethers and hexabromocyclododecane in guillemot egg from the Baltic Sea.

PubMed

Sellström, Ulla; Bignert, Anders; Kierkegaard, Amelie; Häggberg, Lisbeth; de Wit, Cynthia A; Olsson, Mats; Jansson, Bo

2003-12-15

Guillemot eggs from the Baltic Sea, sampled between 1969 and 2001, were analyzed for tetra- and pentabromodiphenyl ethers (2,2',4,4'-tetraBDE (BDE-47), 2,2',4,4',5-pentaBDE (BDE-99), and 2,2',4,4',6-pentaBDE (BDE-100)), and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD). This temporal trend study indicates that the concentrations of the polybrominated diphenyl ether compounds increased from the 1970s to the 1980s, peaking around the mid- to the late-1980s. These peaks are then followed by a rapid decrease in concentrations during the rest of the study period, with the concentrations of the major BDE congener below 100 ng/g lipid weight at the end of the period. This corresponds to less than 10% of its peak values. The concentrations of HBCD show a different pattern over time. After a peak in the middle of the 1970s followed by a decrease, the concentrations increased during the latter part of the 1980s. During the recent 10-yr period no significant change has occurred, and the annual mean concentrations are more or less stable at a higher level as compared to the beginning of the study period.

Evaluation of forest nutrition based on large-scale foliar surveys: are nutrition profiles the way of the future?

PubMed

Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Sulkava, Mika; Raitio, Hannu; Hollmén, Jaakko

2004-02-01

This paper introduces the use of nutrition profiles as a first step in the development of a concept that is suitable for evaluating forest nutrition on the basis of large-scale foliar surveys. Nutrition profiles of a tree or stand were defined as the nutrient status, which accounts for all element concentrations, contents and interactions between two or more elements. Therefore a nutrition profile overcomes the shortcomings associated with the commonly used concepts for evaluating forest nutrition. Nutrition profiles can be calculated by means of a neural network, i.e. a self-organizing map, and an agglomerative clustering algorithm with pruning. As an example, nutrition profiles were calculated to describe the temporal variation in the mineral composition of Scots pine and Norway spruce needles in Finland between 1987 and 2000. The temporal trends in the frequency distribution of the nutrition profiles of Scots pine indicated that, between 1987 and 2000, the N, S, P, K, Ca, Mg and Al decreased, whereas the needle mass (NM) increased or remained unchanged. As there were no temporal trends in the frequency distribution of the nutrition profiles of Norway spruce, the mineral composition of the needles of Norway spruce needles subsequently did not change. Interpretation of the (lack of) temporal trends was outside the scope of this example. However, nutrition profiles prove to be a new and better concept for the evaluation of the mineral composition of large-scale surveys only when a biological interpretation of the nutrition profiles can be provided.

Temporal trends of latency period and perinatal survival after very early preterm premature rupture of fetal membranes.

PubMed

González-Mesa, Ernesto; Herrera, José A; Urgal, Amaya; Lazarraga, Cristina; Benítez, María J; Gómez, Cristina

2012-08-01

This paper shows temporal trends of latency period and perinatal survival after preterm premature rupture of membranes at or before 28 weeks (very early PPROM). We have studied retrospectively medical records of all cases of very early PPROM attended in our Obstetric Department from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. A total of 327 cases of very early PPROM were attended, representing 0.4 % of all deliveries, 3.68 % of all preterm births and 15 % of cases all of PPROM. The mean gestational age at delivery was 27 weeks (range 20-34). The mean duration of latency period for the total of 327 cases was 12.1 days (range 0-83, SD 13.3), with a clear trend to its increase from 2005 (p < 0.05). The mean duration of latency period was largest in 2010 (p < 0.05). For the whole period 2000-2010, perinatal deaths reached 30.6 % of all cases, with a clear trend to decrease as gestational age at diagnosis increased, and over the years of study. We have also found a high rate of obstetric complications and a high rate of cesarean deliveries. The upward trend in the duration of latency period in all groups over the years of study and the encouraging perinatal survival observed, even in previable PPROM, are incentives to follow expectant/conservative management in these cases.

Black Sea thermohaline properties: Long‐term trends and variations

PubMed Central

Stips, A.; Garcia‐Gorriz, E.; Macias Moy, D.

2017-01-01

Abstract The current knowledge about spatial and temporal dynamics of the Black Sea's thermohaline structure is incomplete because of missing data and sparse distribution of existing measurements in space and time. This study presents 56 year continuous simulations of the Black Sea's hydrodynamics using the 3D General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM), without incorporating any relaxation toward climatological or observational data fields. This property of the model allows us to estimate independent temporal trends, in addition to resolving the spatial structure. The simulations suggest that the intermediate layer temperature is characterized by a weak positive trend (warming), whereas the surface temperature does not show a clear linear trend. Different salinity trends have been established at the surface (negative), upper (weaker negative) and main halocline (positive). Three distinct dynamic periods are identified (1960–1970, 1970–1995, 1995–2015), which exhibit pronounced changes in the Black Sea's thermohaline properties and basin circulation. Strengthening of the main cyclonic circulation, accompanied by intensification of the mesoscale anticyclonic eddy formation is found. Both events strongly affect the sea surface salinity but contribute in opposing directions. Specifically, strong composite large‐scale circulation leads to an increase in sea surface salinity, while enhanced formation of mesoscale anticyclones decreases it. Salinity evolution with time is thus the result of the competition of these two opposing yet interdependent processes. PMID:28989833

Spatio-temporal pattern analysis for evaluation of the spread of human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in China, 2013-2014.

PubMed

Dong, Wen; Yang, Kun; Xu, Quanli; Liu, Lin; Chen, Juan

2017-10-24

A large number (n = 460) of A(H7N9) human infections have been reported in China from March 2013 through December 2014, and H7N9 outbreaks in humans became an emerging issue for China health, which have caused numerous disease outbreaks in domestic poultry and wild bird populations, and threatened human health severely. The aims of this study were to investigate the directional trend of the epidemic and to identify the significant presence of spatial-temporal clustering of influenza A(H7N9) human cases between March 2013 and December 2014. Three distinct epidemic phases of A(H7N9) human infections were identified in this study. In each phase, standard deviational ellipse analysis was conducted to examine the directional trend of disease spreading, and retrospective space-time permutation scan statistic was then used to identify the spatio-temporal cluster patterns of H7N9 outbreaks in humans. The ever-changing location and the increasing size of the three identified standard deviational ellipses showed that the epidemic moved from east to southeast coast, and hence to some central regions, with a future epidemiological trend of continue dispersing to more central regions of China, and a few new human cases might also appear in parts of the western China. Furthermore, A(H7N9) human infections were clustering in space and time in the first two phases with five significant spatio-temporal clusters (p < 0.05), but there was no significant cluster identified in phase III. There was a new epidemiologic pattern that the decrease in significant spatio-temporal cluster of A(H7N9) human infections was accompanied with an obvious spatial expansion of the outbreaks during the study period, and identification of the spatio-temporal patterns of the epidemic can provide valuable insights for better understanding the spreading dynamics of the disease in China.

Femoral subtrochanteric shape variation in Albania: implications for use in forensic applications.

PubMed

McIlvaine, B K; Schepartz, L A

2015-02-01

This paper investigates temporal trends in femoral subtrochanteric shape in Albanian skeletal material to evaluate levels of platymeria in a set of populations with European ancestry. Although flattening of the diaphysis in the subtrochanteric region has been associated with individuals of Native American and Asian ancestry, high levels of platymeria may not be unique to those groups. The forensic utility of Gilbert and Gill's (Skeletal Attribution of Race: Methods for Forensic Anthropology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, 1990) method for identifying ancestry from femoral subtrochanteric shape is examined using non-American skeletons of European ancestry. Femoral subtrochanteric anteroposterior and mediolateral diameters for Albanian skeletons from Apollonia (n=117) and Lofkënd (n=50) are assessed for temporal trends and then compared with published data using one-way ANOVA and post-hoc Tukey tests. High degrees of subtrochanteric flattening are identified in the Albanian samples and statistically significant temporal trends of decreasing platymeria are documented. Although recent publications suggest that subtrochanteric shape is less effective in identifying ancestry then was initially proposed, forensic anthropologists still commonly use femoral subtrochanteric shape to determine ancestry among skeletonized remains. This paper's findings support the assertion that proximal femoral morphology is functionally related, and more likely to be influenced by biomechanical adaptation and body proportions than genetic constraints. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal analysis of fatal off-piste and backcountry avalanche accidents in Austria with a comparison of results in Switzerland, France, Italy and the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfeifer, Christian; Höller, Peter; Zeileis, Achim

2018-02-01

In this article we analyzed spatial and temporal patterns of fatal Austrian avalanche accidents caused by backcountry and off-piste skiers and snowboarders within the winter periods 1967/1968-2015/2016. The data were based on reports of the Austrian Board for Alpine Safety and reports of the information services of the federal states. Using the date and the location of the recorded avalanche accidents, we were able to carry out spatial and temporal analyses applying generalized additive models and Markov random-field models. As a result of the trend analysis we noticed an increasing trend of backcountry and off-piste avalanche fatalities within the winter periods 1967/1968-2015/2016 (although slightly decreasing in recent years), which is in contradiction to the widespread opinion in Austria that the number of fatalities is constant over time. Additionally, we compared Austrian results with results of Switzerland, France, Italy and the US based on data from the International Commission of Alpine Rescue (ICAR). As a result of the spatial analysis, we noticed two hot spots of avalanche fatalities (Arlberg-Silvretta and Sölden). Because of the increasing trend and the rather narrow regional distribution of the fatalities, initiatives aimed at preventing avalanche accidents were highly recommended.

Trend analysis of the Aerosol Optical Thickness and Ångström Exponent derived from the global AERONET spectral observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, J.; von Hoyningen-Huene, W.; Kokhanovsky, A. A.; Vountas, M.; Burrows, J. P.

2011-08-01

Regular aerosol observations based on well-calibrated instruments have led to a better understanding of the aerosol radiative budget on Earth. In recent years, these instruments have played an important role in the determination of the increase of anthropogenic aerosols by means of long-term studies. Only few investigations regarding long-term trends of aerosol optical characteristics (e.g. Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) and Ångström Exponent (ÅE)) have been derived from ground-based observations. This paper aims to derive and discuss linear trends of AOT (440, 675, 870, and 1020 nm) and ÅE (440-870 nm) using AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) spectral observations. Additionally, temporal trends of Coarse- and Fine-mode dominant AOTs (CAOT and FAOT) have been estimated by applying an aerosol classification based on accurate ÅE and Ångström Exponent Difference (ÅED). In order to take into account the fact that cloud disturbance is having a significant influence on the trend analysis of aerosols, we introduce a weighted least squares regression depending on two weights: (1) monthly standard deviation and (2) Number of Observations (NO) per month. Temporal increase of FAOTs prevails over regions dominated by emerging economy or slash-burn agriculture in East Asia and South Africa. On the other hand, insignificant or negative trends for FAOTs are detected over Western Europe and North America. Over desert regions, both increase and decrease of CAOTs are observed depending on meteorological conditions.

Spatio-temporal changes in precipitation over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Na; Yue, Tianxiang; Li, Han; Zhang, Lili; Yin, Xiaozhe; Liu, Yi

2018-04-01

Changes in precipitation have a large effect on human society and are of primary importance for many scientific fields such as hydrology, agriculture and eco-environmental sciences. The present study intended to investigate the spatio-temporal characteristics of precipitation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region by using 316 meteorological stations during the period 1965-2014. Geographical Weighted Regression (GWR) method and High Accuracy Surface Modeling (HASM) method were applied to produce the precipitation patterns at different time scales. Mann-Kendall (MK) statistical test was applied to analyze the precipitation temporal variations. Results indicated that annual precipitation over the past 50 years appeared to be a non-periodic oscillation phenomenon; the number of wet years was approximately the same as that of dry years; significant positive trends were observed in spring during 1978-2014 and summer during 1996-2014; on the whole, precipitation in May, June, September, and December showed increasing trends at the 95% confidence level; and significant positive trends were also identified in July during 2000-2013 and August during 1997-2010, while slight decreasing trends were observed in February and November. Summer (June, July, and August) was the wettest season, accounting for 68.73% of annual totals in BTH. In general, northeastern BTH received the highest range of precipitation while northwestern area had the lowest. It was found that precipitation variation in this region had been closely linked to latitude, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), distance to the sea, and urbanization rate. In addition, land use played an important role in the decadal precipitation changes in BTH.

Decreasing spatial variability in precipitation extremes in southwestern China and the local/large-scale influencing factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Meixian; Xu, Xianli; Sun, Alex

2015-07-01

Climate extremes can cause devastating damage to human society and ecosystems. Recent studies have drawn many conclusions about trends in climate extremes, but few have focused on quantitative analysis of their spatial variability and underlying mechanisms. By using the techniques of overlapping moving windows, the Mann-Kendall trend test, correlation, and stepwise regression, this study examined the spatial-temporal variation of precipitation extremes and investigated the potential key factors influencing this variation in southwestern (SW) China, a globally important biodiversity hot spot and climate-sensitive region. Results showed that the changing trends of precipitation extremes were not spatially uniform, but the spatial variability of these precipitation extremes decreased from 1959 to 2012. Further analysis found that atmospheric circulations rather than local factors (land cover, topographic conditions, etc.) were the main cause of such precipitation extremes. This study suggests that droughts or floods may become more homogenously widespread throughout SW China. Hence, region-wide assessments and coordination are needed to help mitigate the economic and ecological impacts.

Long-term analysis of Zostera noltei: A retrospective approach for understanding seagrasses' dynamics.

PubMed

Calleja, Felipe; Galván, Cristina; Silió-Calzada, Ana; Juanes, José A; Ondiviela, Bárbara

2017-09-01

Long-term studies are necessary to establish trends and to understand seagrasses' spatial and temporal dynamic. Nevertheless, this type of research is scarce, as the required databases are often unavailable. The objectives of this study are to create a method for mapping the seagrass Zostera noltei using remote sensing techniques, and to apply it to the characterization of the meadows' extension trend and the potential drivers of change. A time series was created using a novel method based on remote sensing techniques that proved to be adequate for mapping the seagrass in the emerged intertidal. The meadows seem to have a decreasing trend between 1984 and the early 2000s, followed by an increasing tendency that represents a recovery in the extension area of the species. This 30-year analysis demonstrated the Z. noltei's recovery in the study site, similar to that in other estuaries nearby and contrary to the worldwide decreasing behavior of seagrasses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in Acute Ischemic Stroke Hospitalizations in the United States.

PubMed

Ramirez, Lucas; Kim-Tenser, May A; Sanossian, Nerses; Cen, Steven; Wen, Ge; He, Shuhan; Mack, William J; Towfighi, Amytis

2016-05-11

Population-based studies have revealed declining acute ischemic stroke (AIS) hospitalization rates in the United States, but no study has assessed recent temporal trends in race/ethnic-, age-, and sex-specific AIS hospitalization rates. Temporal trends in hospitalization for AIS from 2000 to 2010 were assessed among adults ≥25 years using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample. Age-, sex-, and race/ethnic-specific and age-adjusted stroke hospitalization rates were calculated using the weighted number of hospitalizations and US census data. From 2000 to 2010, age-adjusted stroke hospitalization rates decreased from 250 to 204 per 100 000 (overall rate reduction 18.4%). Age-specific AIS hospitalization rates decreased for individuals aged 65 to 84 years (846 to 605 per 100 000) and ≥85 years (2077 to 1618 per 100 000), but increased for individuals aged 25 to 44 years (16 to 23 per 100 000) and 45 to 64 years (149 to 156 per 100 000). Blacks had the highest age-adjusted yearly hospitalization rates, followed by Hispanics and whites (358, 170, and 155 per 100 000 in 2010). Age-adjusted AIS hospitalization rates increased for blacks but decreased for Hispanics and whites. Age-adjusted AIS hospitalization rates were lower in women and declined more steeply compared to men (272 to 212 per 100 000 in women versus 298 to 245 per 100 000 in men). Although overall stroke hospitalizations declined in the United States, the reduction was more pronounced among older individuals, women, Hispanics, and whites. Renewed efforts at targeting risk factor control among vulnerable individuals may be warranted. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

12-year Temporal Trend in Referral Pattern and Test Results of Stress Echocardiography in a Tertiary Care Referral Center with Moderate Volume Activities and Cath-lab Facility.

PubMed

Barbieri, Andrea; Mantovani, Francesca; Bursi, Francesca; Bartolacelli, Ylenia; Manicardi, Marcella; Lauria, Maria Giulia; Boriani, Giuseppe

2018-01-01

Data on stress echocardiography (SE) time-related changes in referral patterns and diagnostic yield for detection of inducible ischemia could enhance Echo Lab quality benchmarks and performance measures. This study aims to evaluate temporal trends in SE test results among ambulatory patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease (CAD) in a tertiary care referral center with moderate (>100/year) volume SE activities and Cath-Lab facility. From January 2004 to December 2015, 1954 patients (mean age 62 ± 12 years, 42% women, 27% with known CAD) underwent SE (1673 exercise SE, 86%, 246 pharmacological SE, 12%, 35 pacing SE, 2%). Time was grouped into three 4 year periods, where clinical data and test results were evaluated. Our series comprised low-to-intermediate pretest probability of CAD throughout the observation period (overall pretest probability of CAD 19% ± 15%). A progressive decline over time in the rate of pharmacological SE instead of a dramatic increment of exercise SE (79%-96%, P < 0.0001) was noted. The use of beta-blockers increased (from 43% to 66%, P < 0.0001), while the use of nitrates decreased (from 11% to 4%, P < 0.0001) over time. We noted a very uncommon occurrence of abnormal test results with a further decrease in the last period (from 11% to 3%, P < 0.0001). We observed, over a 12-year period, a progressive decrease in the frequency of inducible myocardial ischemia among patients with known or suspected CADe referred to our Echo Lab for SE with Cath-Lab facility, and this trend was parallel to changes in SE referral practice. These findings are particularly relevant if we consider the practical implications on diagnostic SE accuracy and risk assessment.

Geo-spatial analysis of temporal trends of temperature and its extremes over India using daily gridded (1°×1°) temperature data of 1969-2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Abhishek; Seshasai, M. V. R.; Rao, S. V. C. Kameswara; Dadhwal, V. K.

2017-10-01

Daily gridded (1°×1°) temperature data (1969-2005) were used to detect spatial patterns of temporal trends of maximum and minimum temperature (monthly and seasonal), growing degree days (GDDs) over the crop-growing season ( kharif, rabi, and zaid) and annual frequencies of temperature extremes over India. The direction and magnitude of trends, at each grid level, were estimated using the Mann-Kendall statistics ( α = 0.05) and further assessed at the homogeneous temperature regions using a field significance test ( α=0.05). General warming trends were observed over India with considerable variations in direction and magnitude over space and time. The spatial extent and the magnitude of the increasing trends of minimum temperature (0.02-0.04 °C year-1) were found to be higher than that of maximum temperature (0.01-0.02 °C year-1) during winter and pre-monsoon seasons. Significant negative trends of minimum temperature were found over eastern India during the monsoon months. Such trends were also observed for the maximum temperature over northern and eastern parts, particularly in the winter month of January. The general warming patterns also changed the thermal environment of the crop-growing season causing significant increase in GDDs during kharif and rabi seasons across India. The warming climate has also caused significant increase in occurrences of hot extremes such as hot days and hot nights, and significant decrease in cold extremes such as cold days and cold nights.

Temporal Trends in Phthalate Exposures: Findings from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2001–2010

PubMed Central

Calafat, Antonia M.; Woodruff, Tracey J.

2014-01-01

Background: Phthalates are ubiquitous environmental contaminants. Because of potential adverse effects on human health, butylbenzyl phthalate [BBzP; metabolite, monobenzyl phthalate (MBzP)], di-n-butyl phthalate [DnBP; metabolite, mono-n-butyl phthalate (MnBP)], and di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) are being replaced by substitutes including other phthalates; however, little is known about consequent trends in population-level exposures. Objective: We examined temporal trends in urinary concentrations of phthalate metabolites in the general U.S. population and whether trends vary by sociodemographic characteristics. Methods: We combined data on 11 phthalate metabolites for 11,071 participants from five cycles of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2001–2010). Percent changes and least square geometric means (LSGMs) were calculated from multivariate regression models. Results: LSGM concentrations of monoethyl phthalate, MnBP, MBzP, and ΣDEHP metabolites decreased between 2001–2002 and 2009–2010 [percent change (95% CI): –42% (–49, –34); –17% (–23, –9); –32% (–39, –23) and –37% (–46, –26), respectively]. In contrast, LSGM concentrations of monoisobutyl phthalate, mono(3-carboxypropyl) phthalate (MCPP), monocarboxyoctyl phthalate, and monocarboxynonyl phthalate (MCNP) increased over the study period [percent change (95% CI): 206% (178, 236); 25% (8, 45); 149% (102, 207); and 15% (1, 30), respectively]. Trends varied by subpopulations for certain phthalates. For example, LSGM concentrations of ΣDEHP metabolites, MCPP, and MCNP were higher in children than adults, but the gap between groups narrowed over time (pinteraction < 0.01). Conclusions: Exposure of the U.S. population to phthalates has changed in the last decade. Data gaps make it difficult to explain trends, but legislative activity and advocacy campaigns by nongovernmental organizations may play a role in changing trends. Citation: Zota AZ, Calafat AM, Woodruff TJ. 2014. Temporal trends in phthalate exposures: findings from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2001–2010. Environ Health Perspect 122:235–241; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306681 PMID:24425099

Is it appropriate to composite fish samples for mercury trend monitoring and consumption advisories?

PubMed

Gandhi, Nilima; Bhavsar, Satyendra P; Gewurtz, Sarah B; Drouillard, Ken G; Arhonditsis, George B; Petro, Steve

2016-03-01

Monitoring mercury levels in fish can be costly because variation by space, time, and fish type/size needs to be captured. Here, we explored if compositing fish samples to decrease analytical costs would reduce the effectiveness of the monitoring objectives. Six compositing methods were evaluated by applying them to an existing extensive dataset, and examining their performance in reproducing the fish consumption advisories and temporal trends. The methods resulted in varying amount (average 34-72%) of reductions in samples, but all (except one) reproduced advisories very well (96-97% of the advisories did not change or were one category more restrictive compared to analysis of individual samples). Similarly, the methods performed reasonably well in recreating temporal trends, especially when longer-term and frequent measurements were considered. The results indicate that compositing samples within 5cm fish size bins or retaining the largest/smallest individuals and compositing in-between samples in batches of 5 with decreasing fish size would be the best approaches. Based on the literature, the findings from this study are applicable to fillet, muscle plug and whole fish mercury monitoring studies. The compositing methods may also be suitable for monitoring Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) in fish. Overall, compositing fish samples for mercury monitoring could result in a substantial savings (approximately 60% of the analytical cost) and should be considered in fish mercury monitoring, especially in long-term programs or when study cost is a concern. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal trends and geographic variation of lower-extremity amputation in patients with peripheral artery disease: results from U.S. Medicare 2000-2008.

PubMed

Jones, W Schuyler; Patel, Manesh R; Dai, David; Subherwal, Sumeet; Stafford, Judith; Calhoun, Sarah; Peterson, Eric D

2012-11-20

This study sought to characterize temporal trends, patient-specific factors, and geographic variation associated with amputation in patients with lower-extremity peripheral artery disease (LE PAD) during the study period. Amputation represents the end-stage failure for those with LE PAD, and little is known about the rates and geographic variation in the use of LE amputation. By using data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2008, we examined national patterns of LE amputation among patients age 65 years or more with PAD. Multivariable logistic regression was used to adjust regional results for other patient demographic and clinical factors. Among 2,730,742 older patients with identified PAD, the overall rate of LE amputation decreased from 7,258 per 100,000 patients with PAD to 5,790 per 100,000 (p < 0.001 for trend). Male sex, black race, diabetes mellitus, and renal disease were all independent predictors of LE amputation. The adjusted odds ratio of LE amputation per year between 2000 and 2008 was 0.95 (95% CI: 0.95-0.95, p < 0.001). From 2000 to 2008, LE amputation rates decreased significantly among patients with PAD. However, there remains significant patient and geographic variation in amputation rates across the United States. Copyright © 2012 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends and Variations of Ocean Surface Latent Heat Flux: Results from GSSTF2c Data Set

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gao, Si; Chiu, Long S.; Shie, Chung-Lin

2013-01-01

Trends and variations of Goddard Satellite-based Surface Turbulent Fluxes (GSSTF) version 2c (GSSTF2c) latent heat flux (LHF) are examined. This version of LHF takes account of the correction in Earth incidence angle. The trend of global mean LHF for GSSTF2c is much reduced relative to GSSTF version 2b Set 1 and Set 2 for the same period 1988-2008. Temporal increase of GSSTF2c LHF in the two decades is 11.0%, in which 3.1%, 5.8%, and 2.1% are attributed to the increase in wind, the increase in sea surface saturated air humidity, and the decrease in near-surface air humidity, respectively. The first empirical orthogonal function of LHF is a conventional El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode. However, the trends in LHF are independent of conventional ENSO phenomena. After removing ENSO signal, the pattern of LHF trends is primarily determined by the pattern of air-sea humidity difference trends.

Trends in Occupational Exposure to Styrene in the European Glass Fibre-Reinforced Plastics Industry

PubMed Central

Van Rooij, J. G. M.; Kasper, A.; Triebig, G.; Werner, P.; Kromhout, H.

2008-01-01

Aim: This study presents temporal trends of styrene exposure for workers in the European glass fibre-reinforced plastics (GRP) industry during the period 1966–2002. Methods: Data of personal styrene exposure measurements were retrieved from reports, databases and peer-reviewed papers. Only sources with descriptive statistics of personal measurements were accepted. The styrene exposure data cover personal air samples and biological monitoring data, that is, urinary styrene metabolites (mandelic acid and/or phenylglyoxylic acid) and styrene in blood. Means of series of measurements were categorized by year, country, production process, job and sampling strategy. Linear mixed models were used to identify temporal trends and factors affecting exposure levels. Results: Personal exposure measurements were available from 60 reports providing data on 24145 1–8-h time-weighted average shift personal air samples. Available data of biological exposure indicators included measurements of mandelic acid in post-shift urine (6361 urine samples being analysed). Trend analyses of the available styrene exposure data showed that the average styrene concentration in the breathing zone of open-mould workers in the European GRP industry has decreased on average by 5.3% per year during the period 1966–1990 and by only 0.4% annually in the period after 1990. The highest exposures were measured in Southern Europe and the lowest exposures in Northern Europe with Central Europe in between. Biological indicators of styrene (mandelic acid in post-shift urine) showed a somewhat steeper decline (8.9%), most likely because urine samples were collected in companies that showed a stronger decrease of styrene exposure in air than GRP companies where no biological measurements were carried out. PMID:18550625

Longitudinal measures of perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in serum of Gullah African Americans in South Carolina: 2003–2013

PubMed Central

Gribble, Matthew O.; Bartell, Scott M.; Kannan, Kurunthachalam; Wu, Qian; Fair, Patricia A.; Kamen, Diane L.

2015-01-01

Background Charleston Harbor has elevated concentrations of PFAS in dolphins, but local human exposure data are limited. Objectives We sought to describe PFAS serum concentrations’ temporal trends among Gullah African American residents of coastal South Carolina. Methods Longitudinal measures of PFAS in blood serum from a Gullah clinical sample, without lupus, were examined using spaghetti plots and visit-to-visit change scores (e.g., differences in concentrations between visits) among the 68 participants with repeated measures available. We also modeled population-level trends among the 71 participants with any data using proportionate percentile models, accounting for clustering through robust standard errors. In a post-hoc analysis we examined heterogeneity of temporal trends by age through mixed-effects models for the log-transformed PFAS compounds. Results Population concentrations of PFOS dropped approximately 9 (95% CI: 8, 10) percent each year over 2003–2013. This was concordant with individual PFOS trajectories (median PFOS change score −21.7 ng/g wet weight, interquartile range of PFOS change scores: −32.8, −14.9) and reports for other populations over this time period. Several other compounds including PFOA, PFHxS, and PFuNDA also showed a population-level decrease. However, examination of individual trajectories suggested substantial heterogeneity. Post-hoc analyses indicated that PFAS trajectories were heterogeneous by age. Conclusions Many PFAS compounds are decreasing in a sample of Gullah African Americans from coastal South Carolina. There may be age differences in the elimination kinetics of PFASs. The possible role of age as a modifier of PFAS serum trends merits further research. PMID:25819541

The epidemiology of Scottish trauma: A comparison of pre-hospital and in-hospital deaths, 2000 to 2011.

PubMed

Morrison, Jonathan J; Yapp, Liam Z; Beattie, Anne; Devlin, Eimar; Samarage, Milan; McCaffer, Craig; Jansen, Jan O

2016-02-01

To characterise the temporal trends and urban-rural distribution of fatal injuries in Scotland through the analysis of mortality data collected by the National Records of Scotland. The prospectively collected NRS database was queried using ICD-10 codes for all Scottish trauma deaths during the period 2000 to 2011. Patients were divided into pre-hospital and in-hospital groups depending on the location of death. Incidence was plotted against time and linear regression was used to identify temporal trends. A total of 13,100 deaths were analysed. There were 4755 (36.3%) patients in the pre-hospital group with a median age (IQR) of 42 (28-58) years. The predominant cause of pre-hospital death related to vehicular injury (27.8%), which had a decreasing trend over the study period (p = 0.004). In-hospital, patients had a median age of 80 (58-88) years and the majority (67.0%) of deaths occurred following a fall on the level. This trend was shown to increase over the decade of study (p = 0.020). In addition, the incidence of urban incidents remained static, but the rate of rural fatal trauma decreased (p < 0.001). Around a third of Scottish trauma patients die prior to hospital admission and the predominant mechanism of injury is due to road traffic accidents. This contrasts with in-hospital deaths, which are mainly observed in elderly patients following a fall from standing height. Further research is required to determine the preventability of fatal traumatic injury in Scotland. Copyright © 2015 Royal College of Surgeons of Edinburgh (Scottish charity number SC005317) and Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Declining trend in the incidence of biopsy-verified coeliac disease in the adult population of Finland, 2005-2014.

PubMed

Virta, L J; Saarinen, M M; Kolho, K-L

2017-12-01

The frequency of coeliac disease (CD) has been on the rise over the past decades, especially in Western Europe, but current trends are unclear. To research the recent temporal changes in the incidence of adult, biopsy-verified coeliac disease and dermatitis herpetiformis (DH) in Finland, a country with a high frequency of coeliac disease. All coeliac disease and DH cases diagnosed at age 20-79 years during 2005-2014 were retrieved from a nationwide database documenting all applicants for monthly compensation to cover the extra cost of maintaining a gluten-free diet. This benefit is granted on the basis of histology, not socioeconomic status. Temporal trends in the annual incidences were estimated using Poisson regression analyses. The total incidence of coeliac disease decreased from 33/100 000 during the years 2005-2006 to 29/100 000 during 2013-2014. The mean annual incidence of coeliac disease was nearly twice as high among women as among men, 42 vs 22 per 100 000, respectively. For middle- and old-aged women, the average rate of decrease in incidence was 4.8% (95% CI 3.9-5.7) per year and for men 3.0% (1.8-4.1) (P for linear trend <.001, for both). Similarly, the annual incidence of DH declined. For young adults, the rate of change remained low and nonsignificant throughout the period 2005-2014. Although the awareness of coeliac disease has increased during the past decades, the incidence of biopsy-verified diagnoses is not increasing, which suggests that exposure to yet unidentified triggering factors for coeliac disease has plateaued among the Finnish adult population. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impact of order set design on urine culturing practices at an academic medical centre emergency department.

PubMed

Munigala, Satish; Jackups, Ronald R; Poirier, Robert F; Liang, Stephen Y; Wood, Helen; Jafarzadeh, S Reza; Warren, David K

2018-01-20

Urinalysis and urine culture are commonly ordered tests in the emergency department (ED). We evaluated the impact of removal of order sets from the 'frequently ordered test' in the computerised physician order entry system (CPOE) on urine testing practices. We conducted a before (1 September to 20 October 2015) and after (21 October to 30 November 2015) study of ED patients. The intervention consisted of retaining 'urinalysis with reflex to microscopy' as the only urine test in a highly accessible list of frequently ordered tests in the CPOE system. All other urine tests required use of additional order screens via additional mouse clicks. The frequency of urine testing before and after the intervention was compared, adjusting for temporal trends. During the study period, 6499 (28.2%) of 22 948 ED patients had ≥1 urine test ordered. Urine testing rates for all ED patients decreased in the post intervention period for urinalysis (291.5 pre intervention vs 278.4 per 1000 ED visits post intervention, P=0.03), urine microscopy (196.5vs179.5, P=0.001) and urine culture (54.3vs29.7, P<0.001). When adjusted for temporal trends, the daily culture rate per 1000 ED visits decreased by 46.6% (-46.6%, 95% CI -66.2% to -15.6%), but urinalysis (0.4%, 95% CI -30.1 to 44.4%), microscopy (-6.5%, 95% CI -36.0% to 36.6%) and catheterised urine culture rates (17.9%, 95% CI -16.9 to 67.4) were unchanged. A simple intervention of retaining only 'urinalysis with reflex to microscopy' and removing all other urine tests from the 'frequently ordered' window of the ED electronic order set decreased urine cultures ordered by 46.6% after accounting for temporal trends. Given the injudicious use of antimicrobial therapy for asymptomatic bacteriuria, findings from our study suggest that proper design of electronic order sets plays a vital role in reducing excessive ordering of urine cultures. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Analysis of spatial and temporal rainfall trends in Sicily during the 1921-2012 period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liuzzo, Lorena; Bono, Enrico; Sammartano, Vincenzo; Freni, Gabriele

2016-10-01

Precipitation patterns worldwide are changing under the effects of global warming. The impacts of these changes could dramatically affect the hydrological cycle and, consequently, the availability of water resources. In order to improve the quality and reliability of forecasting models, it is important to analyse historical precipitation data to account for possible future changes. For these reasons, a large number of studies have recently been carried out with the aim of investigating the existence of statistically significant trends in precipitation at different spatial and temporal scales. In this paper, the existence of statistically significant trends in rainfall from observational datasets, which were measured by 245 rain gauges over Sicily (Italy) during the 1921-2012 period, was investigated. Annual, seasonal and monthly time series were examined using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric statistical test to detect statistically significant trends at local and regional scales, and their significance levels were assessed. Prior to the application of the Mann-Kendall test, the historical dataset was completed using a geostatistical spatial interpolation technique, the residual ordinary kriging, and then processed to remove the influence of serial correlation on the test results, applying the procedure of trend-free pre-whitening. Once the trends at each site were identified, the spatial patterns of the detected trends were examined using spatial interpolation techniques. Furthermore, focusing on the 30 years from 1981 to 2012, the trend analysis was repeated with the aim of detecting short-term trends or possible changes in the direction of the trends. Finally, the effect of climate change on the seasonal distribution of rainfall during the year was investigated by analysing the trend in the precipitation concentration index. The application of the Mann-Kendall test to the rainfall data provided evidence of a general decrease in precipitation in Sicily during the 1921-2012 period. Downward trends frequently occurred during the autumn and winter months. However, an increase in total annual precipitation was detected during the period from 1981 to 2012.

Space-time analysis of snow cover change in the Romanian Carpathians (2001-2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Micu, Dana; Cosmin Sandric, Ionut

2017-04-01

Snow cover is recognized as an essential climate variable, highly sensitive to the ongoing climate warming, which plays an important role in regulating mountain ecosystems. Evidence from the existing weather stations located above 800 m over the last 50 years points out that the climate of the Romanian Carpathians is visibly changing, showing an ongoing and consistent warming process. Quantifying and attributing the changes in snow cover on various spatial and temporal scales have a great environmental and socio-economic importance for this mountain region. The study is revealing the inter-seasonal changes in the timing and distribution of snow cover across the Romanian Carpathians, by combining gridded snow data (CARPATCLIM dataset, 1961-2010) and remote sensing data (2001-2016) in specific space-time assessment at regional scale. The geostatistical approach applied in this study, based on a GIS hotspot analysis, takes advantage of all the dimensions in the datasets, in order to understand the space-time trends in this climate variable at monthly time-scale. The MODIS AQUA and TERRA images available from 2001 to 2016 have been processed using ArcGIS for Desktop and Python programming language. All the images were masked out with the Carpathians boundary. Only the pixels with snow have been retained for analysis. The regional trends in snow cover distribution and timing have been analysed using Space-Time cube with ArcGIS for Desktop, according with Esri documentation using the Mann-Kendall trend test on every location with data as an independent bin time-series test. The study aimed also to assess the location of emerging hotspots of snow cover change in Carpathians. These hotspots have been calculated using Getis-Ord Gi* statistic for each bin using Hot Spot Analysis implemented in ArcGIS for Desktop. On regional scale, snow cover appear highly sensitive to the decreasing trends in air temperatures and land surface temperatures, combined with the decrease in seasonal precipitation, especially at lower elevations in all the three divisions of the Romanian Carpathians (generally below 1,700-1,800 m). The space-time patterns of snow cover change are dominated by a significant decreasing trend of snow days and earlier spring snow melt. The key findings of this study provides robust indication of a decreasing snow trends across the Carpathian Mountain region and could provide valuable spatial and temporal snow information for other related research fields as well as for an effective environmental monitoring in the mountain ecosystems of the Carpathian region

Surface Subsidence Analysis by Multi-Temporal InSAR and GRACE: A Case Study in Beijing.

PubMed

Guo, Jiming; Zhou, Lv; Yao, Chaolong; Hu, Jiyuan

2016-09-14

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between surface subsidence and groundwater changes. To investigate this relationship, we first analyzed surface subsidence. This paper presents the results of a case study of surface subsidence in Beijing from 1 August 2007 to 29 September 2010. The Multi-temporal Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (multi-temporal InSAR) technique, which can simultaneously detect point-like stable reflectors (PSs) and distributed scatterers (DSs), was used to retrieve the subsidence magnitude and distribution in Beijing using 18 ENVISAT ASAR images. The multi-temporal InSAR-derived subsidence was verified by leveling at an accuracy better than 5 mm/year. Based on the verified multi-temporal InSAR results, a prominent uneven subsidence was identified in Beijing. Specifically, most of the subsidence velocities in the downtown area were within 10 mm/year, and the largest subsidence was detected in Tongzhou, with velocities exceeding 140 mm/year. Furthermore, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data were used to derive the groundwater change series and trend. By comparison with the multi-temporal InSAR-derived subsidence results, the long-term decreasing trend between groundwater changes and surface subsidence showed a relatively high consistency, and a significant impact of groundwater changes on the surface subsidence was identified. Additionally, the spatial distribution of the subsidence funnel was partially consistent with that of groundwater depression, i.e., the former possessed a wider range than the latter. Finally, the relationship between surface subsidence and groundwater changes was determined.

Surface Subsidence Analysis by Multi-Temporal InSAR and GRACE: A Case Study in Beijing

PubMed Central

Guo, Jiming; Zhou, Lv; Yao, Chaolong; Hu, Jiyuan

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between surface subsidence and groundwater changes. To investigate this relationship, we first analyzed surface subsidence. This paper presents the results of a case study of surface subsidence in Beijing from 1 August 2007 to 29 September 2010. The Multi-temporal Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (multi-temporal InSAR) technique, which can simultaneously detect point-like stable reflectors (PSs) and distributed scatterers (DSs), was used to retrieve the subsidence magnitude and distribution in Beijing using 18 ENVISAT ASAR images. The multi-temporal InSAR-derived subsidence was verified by leveling at an accuracy better than 5 mm/year. Based on the verified multi-temporal InSAR results, a prominent uneven subsidence was identified in Beijing. Specifically, most of the subsidence velocities in the downtown area were within 10 mm/year, and the largest subsidence was detected in Tongzhou, with velocities exceeding 140 mm/year. Furthermore, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data were used to derive the groundwater change series and trend. By comparison with the multi-temporal InSAR-derived subsidence results, the long-term decreasing trend between groundwater changes and surface subsidence showed a relatively high consistency, and a significant impact of groundwater changes on the surface subsidence was identified. Additionally, the spatial distribution of the subsidence funnel was partially consistent with that of groundwater depression, i.e., the former possessed a wider range than the latter. Finally, the relationship between surface subsidence and groundwater changes was determined. PMID:27649183

The human sex odds at birth after the atmospheric atomic bomb tests, after Chernobyl, and in the vicinity of nuclear facilities.

PubMed

Scherb, Hagen; Voigt, Kristina

2011-06-01

Ever since the discovery of the mutagenic properties of ionizing radiation, the possibility of birth sex odds shifts in exposed human populations was considered in the scientific community. Positive evidence, however weak, was obtained after the atomic bombing of Japan. We previously investigated trends in the sex odds before and after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident. In a pilot study, combined data from the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Norway, Poland, and Sweden between 1982 and 1992 showed a downward trend in the sex odds and a significant jump in 1987, the year immediately after Chernobyl. Moreover, a significant positive association of the sex odds between 1986 and 1991 with Chernobyl fallout at the district level in Germany was observed. Both of these findings, temporality (effect after exposure) and dose response association, yield evidence of causality. The primary aim of this study was to investigate longer time periods (1950-2007) in all of Europe and in the USA with emphasis on the global atmospheric atomic bomb test fallout and on the Chernobyl accident. To obtain further evidence, we also analyze sex odds data near nuclear facilities in Germany and Switzerland. DATA AND STATISTICAL METHODS: National gender-specific annual live births data for 39 European countries from 1975 to 2007 were compiled using the pertinent internet data bases provided by the World Health Organization, United Nations, Council of Europe, and EUROSTAT. For a synoptic re-analysis of the period 1950 to 1990, published data from the USA and from a predominantly western and less Chernobyl-exposed part of Europe were studied additionally. To assess spatial, temporal, as well as spatial-temporal trends in the sex odds and to investigate possible changes in those trends after the atomic bomb tests, after Chernobyl, and in the vicinity of nuclear facilities, we applied ordinary linear logistic regression. Region-specific and eventually changing spatial-temporal trends were analyzed using dummy variables coding for continents, countries, districts, municipalities, time periods, and appropriate spatial-temporal interactions. The predominantly western European sex odds trend together with the US sex odds trend (1950-1990 each) show a similar behavior. Both trends are consistent with a uniform reduction from 1950 to 1964, an increase from 1964 to 1975 that may be associated with delayed global atomic bomb test fallout released prior to the Partial Test Ban Treaty in 1963 and again a more or less constant decrease from 1975 to 1990. In practically all of Europe, including eastern European countries, from 1975 to 1986, and in the USA from 1975 to 2002, there were highly significant uniform downward trends in the sex odds with a reduction of 0.22% to 0.25% per 10 years. In contrast to the USA, in Europe there was a highly significant jump of the sex odds of 0.20% in the year 1987 following Chernobyl. From 1987 to 2000, the European sex odds trend reversed its sign and went upward, highly significantly so, with 0.42% per 10 years relative to the downward trend before Chernobyl. The global secular trend analyses are corroborated by the analysis of spatial-temporal sex odds trends near nuclear facilities (NF) in Germany and Switzerland. Within 35 km distance from those NF, the sex odds increase significantly in the range of 0.30% to 0.40% during NF operating time. The atmospheric atomic bomb test fallout affected the human sex odds at birth overall, and the Chernobyl fallout had a similar impact in Europe and parts of Asia. The birth sex odds near nuclear facilities are also distorted. The persistently disturbed secular human sex odds trends allow the estimation of the global deficit of births in the range of several millions.

Evaluating spatial and temporal variations of rainfall erosivity, case of Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meshesha, Derege Tsegaye; Tsunekawa, Atsushi; Tsubo, Mitsuru; Haregeweyn, Nigussie; Adgo, Enyew

2015-02-01

Land degradation in many Ethiopian highlands occurs mainly due to high rainfall erosivity and poor soil conservation practices. Rainfall erosivity is an indicator of the precipitation energy and ability to cause soil erosion. In Central Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia, where the climate is characterized as arid and semiarid, rainfall is the main driver of soil erosion that in turn causes a serious expansion in land degradation. In order to evaluate the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall erosivity and its impact on soil erosion, long-term rainfall data (1980-2010) was used, and the monthly Fournier index (FI) and the annual modified Fournier index (MFI) were applied. Student's t test analysis was performed particularly to examine statistical significances of differences in average monthly and annual erosivity values. The result indicated that, in a similar spatial pattern with elevation and rainfall amount, average annual erosivity is also found being higher in western highlands of the valley and gradually decreased towards the east. The long-term average annual erosivity (MFI) showed a general decreasing trend in recent 10 years (2000-2010) as compared to previous 20 years (1980-1999). In most of the stations, average erosivity of main rainy months (May, June, July, and August) showed a decreasing trend, whereby some of them (about 33.3 %) are statically significant at 90 and 95 % confidence intervals but with high variation in spatial pattern of changes. The overall result of the study showed that rainfall aggression (erosivity) in the region has a general decreasing trend in the recent decade as compared to previous decades, especially in the western highlands of the valley. Hence, it implies that anthropogenic factors such as land use change being coupled with topography (steep slope) have largely contributed to increased soil erosion rate in the region.

Trends of stomach cancer mortality in Eastern Asia in 1950-2004: comparative study of Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore using age, period and cohort analysis.

PubMed

Tanaka, Masahiro; Ma, Enbo; Tanaka, Hideo; Ioka, Akiko; Nakahara, Toshitaka; Takahashi, Hideto

2012-02-15

To characterize the temporal trends of stomach cancer mortality in Eastern Asia and to better interpret the causes of the trends, we performed age, period and cohort analysis (APC analysis) on the mortality rates in Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore during 1950-2004, as well as the rates in the US as a control population. For the APC analysis, Holford's approach was used to avoid the identification problem. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) decreased consistently in all four areas during the observation period in both males and females. Japan had the highest ASMR in both sexes, followed by Singapore, Hong Kong and the US, but the differences in ASMR among the four areas diminished with time. The results of APC analysis suggested that the decreasing mortality rates in Eastern Asia were caused by the combination of decreasing cohort effect since the end of the 1800s and decreasing period effect from the 1950s. The US showed similar results, but its decreases in the period and cohort effect preceded those of Eastern Asia. Possible causes for the decrease in the cohort effect include improvement in the socioeconomic conditions during childhood and a decrease in the prevalence of H. pylori infection, while possible causes for the decrease in the period effect include a decrease in dietary salt intake and improvements in cancer detection and treatment. These findings may help us to predict future changes in the mortality rates of stomach cancer. Copyright © 2011 UICC.

Temporal and spatial characteristics of the water pollutant concentration in Huaihe River Basin from 2003 to 2012, China.

PubMed

Dou, Ming; Zhang, Yan; Li, Guiqiu

2016-09-01

Based on the monitoring data of 78 monitoring stations from 2003 to 2012, five key water quality indexes (biochemical oxygen demand: BOD5, permanganate index: CODMn, dissolved oxygen: DO, ammonium nitrogen: NH3-N, and total phosphorus: TP) were selected to analyze their temporal and spatial characteristics in the highly disturbed Huaihe River Basin via Mann-Kendall trend analysis and boxplot analysis. The temporal and spatial variations of water pollutant concentrations in the Huaihe River Basin were investigated and analyzed to provide a scientific basis for water pollution control, water environment protection, and ecological restoration. The results indicated that the Yinghe River, Quanhe River, Honghe River, Guohe River, and Baohe River were the most seriously polluted rivers, followed by Hongze Lake, Luoma Lake, Yishuhe River, and Nansi Lake. BOD5, CODMn, and NH3-N were the major pollution indexes, for which the monitoring stations reported that more than 40 % of the water quality concentrations exceeded the class IV level. There were 21, 50, 36, and 21 monitoring stations that recorded significantly decreasing trends for BOD5, CODMn, NH3-N, and TP, respectively, and 39 monitoring stations showed a significantly increasing trend for DO. Moreover, the water quality concentrations had a certain concentricity and volatility according to boxplot analysis for the 20 monitoring stations. The majority of monitoring stations recorded a large fluctuation for the monitoring indexes in 2003 and 2004, which indicated that the water quality concentrations were unstable. According to the seasonal variations of the water quality concentrations in the mainstream of Huaihe River, the monthly variation trends of the BOD5, CODMn, DO, NH3-N, and TP concentrations were basically consistent among the seven monitoring stations. The BOD5, CODMn, NH3-N, and TP concentrations were affected by the change of the stream discharge; changes in DO and NH3-N concentrations were influenced by the regional environmental temperature, and the DO and NH3-N concentrations decreased when the water temperature increased.

Trends in the work hours of physicians in the United States.

PubMed

Staiger, Douglas O; Auerbach, David I; Buerhaus, Peter I

2010-02-24

Recent trends in hours worked by physicians may affect workforce needs but have not been thoroughly analyzed. To estimate trends in hours worked by US physicians and assess for association with physician fees. A retrospective analysis of trends in hours worked among US physicians using nationally representative workforce information from the US Census Bureau Current Population Survey between 1976 and 2008 (N = 116,733). Trends were estimated among all US physicians and by residency status, sex, age, and work setting. Trends in hours were compared with national trends in physician fees, and estimated separately for physicians located in metropolitan areas with high and low fees in 2001. Self-reported hours worked in the week before the survey. After remaining stable through the early 1990s, mean hours worked per week decreased by 7.2% between 1996 and 2008 among all physicians (from 54.9 hours per week in 1996-1998 to 51.0 hours per week in 2006-2008; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.3%-9.0%; P < .001). Excluding resident physicians, whose hours decreased by 9.8% (95% CI, 5.8%-13.7%; P < .001) in the last decade due to duty hour limits imposed in 2003, nonresident physician hours decreased by 5.7% (95% CI, 3.8%-7.7%; P < .001). The decrease in hours was largest for nonresident physicians younger than 45 years (7.4%; 95% CI, 4.7%-10.2%; P < .001) and working outside of the hospital (6.4%; 95% CI, 4.1%-8.7%; P < .001), and the decrease was smallest for those aged 45 years or older (3.7%; 95% CI, 1.0%-6.5%; P = .008) and working in the hospital (4.0%; 95% CI, 0.4%-7.6%; P = .03). After adjusting for inflation, mean physician fees decreased nationwide by 25% between 1995 and 2006, coincident with the decrease in physician hours. In 2001, mean physician hours were less than 49 hours per week in metropolitan areas with the lowest physician fees, whereas physician hours remained more than 52 hours per week elsewhere (P < .001 for difference). A steady decrease in hours worked per week during the last decade was observed for all physicians, which was temporally and geographically associated with lower physician fees.

Trends in the Work Hours of Physicians in the United States

PubMed Central

Staiger, Douglas O.; Auerbach, David I.; Buerhaus, Peter I.

2010-01-01

Context Recent trends in hours worked by physicians may affect workforce needs but have not been thoroughly analyzed. Objectives To estimate trends in hours worked by US physicians and assess for association with physician fees. Design, Setting, and Participants A retrospective analysis of trends in hours worked among US physicians using nationally representative workforce information from the US Census Bureau Current Population Survey between 1976 and 2008 (N=116 733). Trends were estimated among all US physicians and by residency status, sex, age, and work setting. Trends in hours were compared with national trends in physician fees, and estimated separately for physicians located in metropolitan areas with high and low fees in 2001. Main Outcome Measure Self-reported hours worked in the week before the survey. Results After remaining stable through the early 1990s, mean hours worked per week decreased by 7.2% between 1996 and 2008 among all physicians (from 54.9 hours per week in 1996–1998 to 51.0 hours per week in 2006–2008; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.3%–9.0%; P<.001). Excluding resident physicians, whose hours decreased by 9.8% (95% CI, 5.8%–13.7%; P<.001) in the last decade due to duty hour limits imposed in 2003, nonresident physician hours decreased by 5.7% (95% CI, 3.8%–7.7%; P<.001). The decrease in hours was largest for nonresident physicians younger than 45 years (7.4%; 95% CI, 4.7%–10.2%; P<.001) and working outside of the hospital (6.4%; 95% CI, 4.1%–8.7%; P<.001), and the decrease was smallest for those aged 45 years or older (3.7%; 95% CI, 1.0%–6.5%; P=.008) and working in the hospital (4.0%; 95% CI, 0.4%–7.6%; P=.03). After adjusting for inflation, mean physician fees decreased nationwide by 25% between 1995 and 2006, coincident with the decrease in physician hours. In 2001, mean physician hours were less than 49 hours per week in metropolitan areas with the lowest physician fees, whereas physician hours remained more than 52 hours per week elsewhere (P<.001 for difference). Conclusion A steady decrease in hours worked per week during the last decade was observed for all physicians, which was temporally and geographically associated with lower physician fees. PMID:20179284

Status and trends of dissolved oxygen in Corpus Christi Bay, Texas, U.S.A.

PubMed

Applebaum, Sally; Montagna, Paul A; Ritter, Christine

2005-08-01

The purpose of this study was to determine status and long-term trends of dissolved oxygen concentrations (DO) in Corpus Christi Bay, Texas, U.S.A. A 20-year record of randomized stations was used to determine the trend of surface water DO, salinity, and temperature over space and time. A 13-year record of two fixed stations was used to determine the temporal nutrient trends. A 10-year record of fixed stations in the southeastern region of Corpus Christi Bay was used to determine the status of disturbance caused by low DO in bottom waters. From 1982 to 2002, there was a significant decrease in surface water DO at a rate of 0.06 mg L(-1) yr(-1) and a significant increase in surface water temperature at a rate of 0.07 degrees C yr(-1). The southeastern region of Corpus Christi Bay had the lowest average DO, and during July and August, DO are steadily declining at a rate of 0.09 mg L(-1) yr(-1). It is not likely that eutrophication is causing hypoxia, because freshwater inflow rates have significantly decreased since 1941 and nutrient levels have not changed from 1987 to 2000. Even though long-term trends indicate that average surface DO is decreasing, disturbance by hypoxia appears to be stable, but this may be due to just eight years of data. In fact, if the current trend continues, surface water DO will not meet exceptional aquatic life standards (< or = 5 mg L(-1)) in 2032.

Spatiotemporal changes of freezing/thawing indices and their response to recent climate change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1980 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Tonghua; Qin, Yanhui; Wu, Xiaodong; Li, Ren; Zou, Defu; Xie, Changwei

2018-05-01

The spatial and temporal changes of the ground surface freezing indices (GFIs), ground surface thawing indices (GTIs), air freezing indices (AFIs), and air thawing indices (ATIs) in permafrost and seasonally frozen ground regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) were analyzed based on the daily ground surface and air temperatures from 69 meteorological stations using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimate. The spatial patterns of the freezing indices (FIs) and thawing indices (TIs) are nearly negatively correlated. On the annual scale, the GFI and GTI are greater than the AFI and ATI in both permafrost and seasonally frozen ground regions. The marked upward and downward trends have been observed for the time series of TI and FI, respectively, since 1998 on the QTP. Moreover, GFI and AFI decrease more significantly in permafrost regions than in seasonally frozen ground regions; the increasing rate of GTI and ATI in the seasonally frozen ground regions is greater than that in the permafrost regions. In permafrost regions, the downward trend of FI is greater than the upward trend of TI. However, the upward trend of TI shows a more drastic change than the FI in the seasonally frozen ground regions. The results indicate that the warming in the permafrost regions is more pronounced in winter than in the other seasons. The summer warming is more pronounced than the other seasons in the seasonally frozen ground regions. The decreasing rate of AFI and GFI increases as the altitude rises, while they decrease with increasing ATI. The average decreasing rate of GFI is greater than that of the AFI in different altitudinal zones. The greatest decrease of FI occurs in permafrost regions in the hinterland of the QTP, which indicates the dominant winter warming in this region. The downward trend of FI and upward trend of TI are responsible for the reported permafrost degradation on the QTP.

Trends in initial management of prostate cancer in New Hampshire.

PubMed

Ingimarsson, Johann P; Celaya, Maria O; Laviolette, Michael; Rees, Judy R; Hyams, Elias S

2015-06-01

Prostate cancer management strategies are evolving with increased understanding of the disease. Specifically, there is emerging evidence that "low-risk" cancer is best treated with observation, while localized "high-risk" cancer requires aggressive curative therapy. In this study, we evaluated trends in management of prostate cancer in New Hampshire to determine adherence to evidence-based practice. From the New Hampshire State Cancer Registry, cases of clinically localized prostate cancer diagnosed in 2004-2011 were identified and classified according to D'Amico criteria. Initial treatment modality was recorded as surgery, radiation therapy, expectant management, or hormone therapy. Temporal trends were assessed by Chi-square for trend. Of 6,203 clinically localized prostate cancers meeting inclusion criteria, 34, 30, and 28% were low-, intermediate-, and high-risk disease, respectively. For low-risk disease, use of expectant management (17-42%, p < 0.001) and surgery (29-39%, p < 0.001) increased, while use of radiation therapy decreased (49-19 %, p < 0.001). For intermediate-risk disease, use of surgery increased (24-50%, p < 0.001), while radiation decreased (58-34%, p < 0.001). Hormonal therapy alone was rarely used for low- and intermediate-risk disease. For high-risk patients, surgery increased (38-47%, p = 0.003) and radiation decreased (41-38%, p = 0.026), while hormonal therapy and expectant management remained stable. There are encouraging trends in the management of clinically localized prostate cancer in New Hampshire, including less aggressive treatment of low-risk cancer and increasing surgical treatment of high-risk disease.

Antimicrobial resistance trends among Salmonella isolates obtained from horses in the northeastern United States (2001-2013).

PubMed

Cummings, Kevin J; Perkins, Gillian A; Khatibzadeh, Sarah M; Warnick, Lorin D; Aprea, Victor A; Altier, Craig

2016-05-01

OBJECTIVE To describe the antimicrobial resistance patterns of Salmonella isolates obtained from horses in the northeastern United States and to identify trends in resistance to select antimicrobials over time. SAMPLE 462 Salmonella isolates from horses. PROCEDURES Retrospective data were collected for all Salmonella isolates obtained from equine specimens that were submitted to the Cornell University Animal Health Diagnostic Center between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2013. Temporal trends in the prevalence of resistant Salmonella isolates were investigated for each of 13 antimicrobials by use of the Cochran-Armitage trend test. RESULTS The prevalence of resistant isolates varied among antimicrobials and ranged from 0% (imipenem) to 51.5% (chloramphenicol). During the observation period, the prevalence of resistant isolates decreased significantly for amoxicillin-clavulanic acid, ampicillin, cefazolin, cefoxitin, ceftiofur, chloramphenicol, and tetracycline and remained negligible for amikacin and enrofloxacin. Of the 337 isolates for which the susceptibility to all 13 antimicrobials was determined, 138 (40.9%) were pansusceptible and 192 (57.0%) were multidrug resistant (resistant to ≥ 3 antimicrobial classes). The most common serovar isolated was Salmonella Newport, and although the annual prevalence of that serovar decreased significantly over time, that decrease had only a minimal effect on the observed antimicrobial resistance trends. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Results suggested that current antimicrobial use in horses is not promoting the emergence and dissemination of antimicrobial-resistant Salmonella strains in the region served by the laboratory.

Regional trends in aquatic recovery from acidification in North America and Europe

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stoddard, J.L.; Jeffries, D.S.; Lukewille, A.; Clair, T.A.; Dillon, P.J.; Driscoll, C.T.; Forsius, M.; Johannessen, M.; Kahl, J.S.; Kellogg, J.H.; Kemp, A.; Mannlo, J.; Monteith, D.T.; Murdoch, Peter S.; Patrick, S.; Rebsdorl, A.; Skjelkvale, B.L.; Stainton, M.P.; Traaen, T.; Van Dam, H.; Webster, K.E.; Wleting, J.; Wllander, A.

1999-01-01

Rates of acidic deposition from the atmosphere ('acid rain') have decreased throughout the 1980s and 1990s across large portions of North America and Europe. Many recent studies have attributed observed reversals in surface-water acidification at national and regional scales to the declining deposition. To test whether emissions regulations have led to widespread recovery in surface-water chemistry, we analysed regional trends between 1980 and 1995 in indicators of acidification (sulphate, nitrate and base-cation concentrations, and measured (Gran) alkalinity) for 205 lakes and streams in eight regions of North America and Europe. Dramatic differences in trend direction and strength for the two decades are apparent. In concordance with general temporal trends in acidic deposition, lake and stream sulphate concentrations decreased in all regions with the exception of Great Britain all but one of these regions exhibited stronger downward trends in the 1990s than in the 1980s. In contrast, regional declines in lake and stream nitrate concentrations were rare and, when detected, were very small. Recovery in alkalinity, expected wherever strong regional declines in sulphate concentrations have occurred, was observed in all regions of Europe, especially in the 1990s, but in only one region (of five) in North America. We attribute the lack of recovery in three regions (south/central Ontario, the Adirondack/Catskill mountains and midwestern North America) to strong regional declines in base-cation concentrations that exceed the decreases in sulphate concentrations.

Annual and seasonal distribution of day and night Land Surface Temperature trend over Greece.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lakshmi, V.; Gemitzi, A.; Eleftheriou, D.; Kalea, A.; Kalmintzis, G.; Kiachidis, K.; Koumadoraki, P.; Mpantasis, C.; Spathara, M. E.; Tsolaki, A.; Tzampazidou, M. I.

2017-12-01

Climate change is one of the most challenging research topics during the last few decades, as temperature rise has already posed a significant impact on earth's functions affecting thus all life of the planet. The present study investigates the distribution of day and night Land Surface Temperature (LST) trends over Greece, a country in Mediterranean area which is identified as one of the main ``hot-spots" of climate change projections. Remotely sensed LST data were obtained from MODIS sensor in the form of 8-day composites of day and night values at a resolution of 1km for a 17-year period, i.e. from 2000 to 2017. Spatial aggregates of 10km x 10km were computed and the annual and seasonal temporal trends were determined for each one of those sub-areas. Results showed that annual trends of daily LST in the majority of areas demonstrated decrease ranging from -1*10-2 oC to -1.3*10-3 oC, with some sporadic parts showing a slight increase. A totally different outcome is observed in the fate of night LST, with all areas over Greece demonstrating increasing annual trends ranging from 4.6 * 10-5 oC to 3.1 * 10-3 oC, with highest values in the South-East parts of the country. Seasonal trends in day and night LST showed the same pattern, i.e., a general decrease in the day LST and a definite increase in night. An interesting finding is the increase in winter LST trends observed both for day and night LST, indicating that the absolute minimum annual LST observed during winter in Greece increases. Our results also indicate that the difference between the day and night LST is decreasing.

Global Changes In Relative Humidity: Moisture Recycling, Transport Processes And Implications For Drought Severity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; Gimeno, L.; Nieto, R. O.; Azorin-Molina, C.

2016-12-01

Climate models and observations suggest that atmospheric humidity is increasing as a consequence of warmer air temperatures according to the Classius-Clapeyron relationship. In addition, given unlimited water availability in oceans it is suggested that relative humidity (RH) would remain constant. Nevertheless, recent global and regional studies have pointed out that RH may be decreasing in large areas of the world, and there are different hypotheses that could explain the possible decrease in RH as related to changes in: (i) the atmospheric circulation and moisture transport processes; (ii) precipitation; (iii) air vapour saturation given different warming in lands and oceans; etc. These trends have strong implications for the atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) and drought severity. We analysed changes in RH observed at the global scale for 1979-2014. For this purpose we have used 3462 stations across the world from the HadISDH data set. RH data have been also calculated from daily records of specific humidity, air pressure and air temperature from the ERA-Interim Reanalysis data set. The comparison results between observations and ERA-Interim show a strong agreement in the spatio-temporal variability and magnitude of trends of RH. We have analysed the relationship between the variability and changes in RH, precipitation, air temperature and evaporation at the global scale, concluding that the observed spatial patterns of RH are not well explained by the observed changes in the variability of precipitation and temperature. To improve the knowledge of the possible drivers of the observed trends in RH, we have selected 15 representative areas that showed a different temporal behaviour and applied a Lagrangian model (Flexpart). This has served to identify the humidity sources corresponding to each region, and to know the behaviour showed by Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and the evolution of oceanic and continental evaporation processes on the RH variability and trends. The effect of observed RH trends on AED and drought severity has been evaluated by means of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI).

[Spatio-temporal variation of drought condition during 1961 to 2012 based on composite index of meteorological drought in Altay region, China].

PubMed

Wu, Yan-feng; Bake, Batur; Li, Wei; Wei, Xiao-qin; Wozatihan, Jiayinaguli; Rasulov, Hamid

2015-02-01

Based on the daily meteorological data of seven stations in Altay region, China, this study investigated the temporal ( seasonal, inter-annual and decadal) and spatial variations of drought by using composite index of meteorological drought, as well as trend analysis, M-K abrupt analysis, wavelet analysis and interpolation tools in ArcGIS. The results indicated that the composite index of meteorological drought could reflect the drought condition in Altay region well. Although the frequency and the covered area of both inter-annual and seasonal droughts presented decreasing trends in the recent 52 a, the drought was still serious when considering the annual drought. The frequencies of inter-annual and spring droughts had no abrupt changes, whereas the frequencies of inter-summer, autumn and winter droughts had abrupt changes during the past 52 a. A significant periodic trend was also observed for the frequencies of inter-annual and seasonal droughts. The distribution of frequency and covered area suggested that the conditions of drought were heavily serious in Qinghe County, moderately serious in Altay City, Fuyun County, Buerjin County and Fuhai County, and slightly serious in Habahe County and Jimunai County.

Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea.

PubMed

Park, Jae-Won; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Honda, Yasushi; Ha, Mina; Kim, Ho; Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis; Mueller, Ivo

2016-01-01

This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

Satellite-based trends of solar radiation and cloud parameters in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfeifroth, Uwe; Bojanowski, Jedrzej S.; Clerbaux, Nicolas; Manara, Veronica; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo; Trentmann, Jörg; Walawender, Jakub P.; Hollmann, Rainer

2018-04-01

Solar radiation is the main driver of the Earth's climate. Measuring solar radiation and analysing its interaction with clouds are essential for the understanding of the climate system. The EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) generates satellite-based, high-quality climate data records, with a focus on the energy balance and water cycle. Here, multiple of these data records are analyzed in a common framework to assess the consistency in trends and spatio-temporal variability of surface solar radiation, top-of-atmosphere reflected solar radiation and cloud fraction. This multi-parameter analysis focuses on Europe and covers the time period from 1992 to 2015. A high correlation between these three variables has been found over Europe. An overall consistency of the climate data records reveals an increase of surface solar radiation and a decrease in top-of-atmosphere reflected radiation. In addition, those trends are confirmed by negative trends in cloud cover. This consistency documents the high quality and stability of the CM SAF climate data records, which are mostly derived independently from each other. The results of this study indicate that one of the main reasons for the positive trend in surface solar radiation since the 1990's is a decrease in cloud coverage even if an aerosol contribution cannot be completely ruled out.

Spatiotemporal patterns of drought at various time scales in Shandong Province of Eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuo, Depeng; Cai, Siyang; Xu, Zongxue; Li, Fulin; Sun, Wenchao; Yang, Xiaojing; Kan, Guangyuan; Liu, Pin

2018-01-01

The temporal variations and spatial patterns of drought in Shandong Province of Eastern China were investigated by calculating the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-month time scales. Monthly precipitation and air temperature time series during the period 1960-2012 were collected at 23 meteorological stations uniformly distributed over the region. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used to explore the temporal trends of precipitation, air temperature, and the SPEI drought index. S-mode principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to identify the spatial patterns of drought. The results showed that an insignificant decreasing trend in annual total precipitation was detected at most stations, a significant increase of annual average air temperature occurred at all the 23 stations, and a significant decreasing trend in the SPEI was mainly detected at the coastal stations for all the time scales. The frequency of occurrence of extreme and severe drought at different time scales generally increased with decades; higher frequency and larger affected area of extreme and severe droughts occurred as the time scale increased, especially for the northwest of Shandong Province and Jiaodong peninsular. The spatial pattern of drought for SPEI-1 contains three regions: eastern Jiaodong Peninsular and northwestern and southern Shandong. As the time scale increased to 3, 6, and 12 months, the order of the three regions was transformed into another as northwestern Shandong, eastern Jiaodong Peninsular, and southern Shandong. For SPEI-24, the location identified by REOF1 was slightly shifted from northwestern Shandong to western Shandong, and REOF2 and REOF3 identified another two weak patterns in the south edge and north edge of Jiaodong Peninsular, respectively. The potential causes of drought and the impact of drought on agriculture in the study area have also been discussed. The temporal variations and spatial patterns of drought obtained in this study provide valuable information for water resources planning and drought disaster prevention and mitigation in Eastern China.

Temporal trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, bone mineral density, and fracture rates: a population-based historical cohort study.

PubMed

Leslie, William D; Lix, Lisa M; Yogendran, Marina S; Morin, Suzanne N; Metge, Colleen J; Majumdar, Sumit R

2014-04-01

Diverging international trends in fracture rates have been observed, with most reports showing that fracture rates have stabilized or decreased in North American and many European populations. We studied two complementary population-based historical cohorts from the Province of Manitoba, Canada (1996-2006) to determine whether declining osteoporotic fracture rates in Canada are attributable to trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, or bone mineral density (BMD). The Population Fracture Registry included women aged 50 years and older with major osteoporotic fractures, and was used to assess impact of changes in osteoporosis treatment. The BMD Registry included all women aged 50 years and older undergoing BMD tests, and was used to assess impact of changes in obesity and BMD. Model-based estimates of temporal changes in fracture rates (Fracture Registry) were calculated. Temporal changes in obesity and BMD and their association with fracture rates (BMD Registry) were estimated. In the Fracture Registry (n=27,341), fracture rates declined 1.6% per year (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3% to 2.0%). Although osteoporosis treatment increased from 5.6% to 17.4%, the decline in fractures was independent of osteoporosis treatment. In the BMD Registry (n=36,587), obesity increased from 12.7% to 27.4%. Femoral neck BMD increased 0.52% per year and lumbar spine BMD increased 0.32% per year after covariate adjustment (p<0.001). Major osteoporotic fracture rates decreased in models that did not include femoral neck BMD (fully adjusted annual change -1.8%; 95% CI, -2.9 to -0.5), but adjusting for femoral neck BMD accounted for the observed reduction (annual change -0.5%; 95% CI, -1.8 to +1.0). In summary, major osteoporotic fracture rates declined substantially and linearly from 1996 to 2006, and this was explained by improvements in BMD rather than greater rates of obesity or osteoporosis treatment. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Age at stroke: temporal trends in stroke incidence in a large, biracial population.

PubMed

Kissela, Brett M; Khoury, Jane C; Alwell, Kathleen; Moomaw, Charles J; Woo, Daniel; Adeoye, Opeolu; Flaherty, Matthew L; Khatri, Pooja; Ferioli, Simona; De Los Rios La Rosa, Felipe; Broderick, Joseph P; Kleindorfer, Dawn O

2012-10-23

We describe temporal trends in stroke incidence stratified by age from our population-based stroke epidemiology study. We hypothesized that stroke incidence in younger adults (age 20-54) increased over time, most notably between 1999 and 2005. The Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky region includes an estimated population of 1.3 million. Strokes were ascertained in the population between July 1, 1993, and June 30, 1994, and in calendar years 1999 and 2005. Age-, race-, and gender-specific incidence rates with 95 confidence intervals were calculated assuming a Poisson distribution. We tested for differences in age trends over time using a mixed-model approach, with appropriate link functions. The mean age at stroke significantly decreased from 71.2 years in 1993/1994 to 69.2 years in 2005 (p < 0.0001). The proportion of all strokes under age 55 increased from 12.9% in 1993/1994 to 18.6% in 2005. Regression modeling showed a significant change over time (p = 0.002), characterized as a shift to younger strokes in 2005 compared with earlier study periods. Stroke incidence rates in those 20-54 years of age were significantly increased in both black and white patients in 2005 compared to earlier periods. We found trends toward increasing stroke incidence at younger ages. This is of great public health significance because strokes in younger patients carry the potential for greater lifetime burden of disability and because some potential contributors identified for this trend are modifiable.

Trends in obesity and energy supply in the WHO MONICA Project.

PubMed

Silventoinen, K; Sans, S; Tolonen, H; Monterde, D; Kuulasmaa, K; Kesteloot, H; Tuomilehto, J

2004-05-01

To examine the relationship between secular trends in energy supply and body mass index (BMI) among several countries. Aggregate level analyses of annually reported country food data against anthropometric data collected in independent cross-sectional samples from 34 populations in 21 countries from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s. Population randomly selected participants aged 35-64 y. BMI data were obtained from the WHO MONICA Project. Food energy supply data were derived from the Food Balance Sheet of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Mean BMI as well as the prevalence of overweight (BMI > or =25 kg/m2) increased in virtually all Western European countries, Australia, the USA, and China. Decreasing trends in BMI were seen in Central and Eastern European countries. Increasing trends in total energy supply per capita were found in most high-income countries and China while decreasing trends existed in Eastern European countries. Between country differences in temporal trends of total energy supply per capita explained 41% of the variation of trends in mean BMI; the effect was similar upon the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Trends in percent of energy supply from total fat per capita had a slight effect on the trends in mean BMI (+7% increment in R2) when the total energy supply per capita was adjusted for, while energy supply from total sweeteners per capita had no additional effect. Increasing energy supply is closely associated with the increase of overweight and obesity in western countries. This emphasizes the importance of dietary issues when coping with the obesity epidemic.

Time trends and individual characteristics associated with polybrominated diphenyl ethers in breast milk samples 2006-2009 in Lower Saxony, Germany.

PubMed

Hoopmann, Michael; Albrecht, Urs-Vito; Gierden, Edith; Huppmann, René; Suchenwirth, Roland

2012-04-01

Since 2006 polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) concentrations have been analyzed within the scope of the breast milk project conducted by the Governmental Institute of Public Health of Lower Saxony. Temporal trends and regional distributions of the resident population as well as the relevance of individual factors influencing PBDE concentration were to be determined. Four PBDE congeners (BDE-47, BDE-153, BDE-99, BDE-100) have been analyzed. The concentrations are fitted by linear regression models, whereby individual factors of the mother are surveyed by a standardized questionnaire. A total of 2173 samples taken between 2006 and 2009 shows an estimated total PBDE mean value of 1.68 ng/g lipid weight (l.w.). In contrast to most other studies, the proportion of BDE-153 exceeds the one of BDE-47 (median: 0.51 ng/g l.w. vs. 0.31 ng/g l.w.). BMI shows a positive correlation with BDE-47 and a negative correlation with BDE-153, both statistically significant (p<0.001). For BDE-153, other significant factors (former breast feeding periods, birth year of the mother and country of birth) reflect also dilution effects and the time of accumulation. A decreasing temporal trend is observed for BDE-47 but not for BDE-153. The correlation patterns, the temporal trends and the various influencing factors may reflect differences in exposure sources and/or metabolism between the major congeners BDE-47 and BDE-153. Therefore it seems to be necessary to discuss the concentrations of BDE-47 and BDE-153 separately as leading indicators instead of using a total PBDE. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Trend analysis of air temperature and precipitation time series over Greece: 1955-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marougianni, G.; Melas, D.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Anandranistakis, E.

2012-04-01

In this study, a database of air temperature and precipitation time series from the network of Hellenic National Meteorological Service has been developed in the framework of the project GEOCLIMA, co-financed by the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009. Initially, a quality test was applied to the raw data and then missing observations have been imputed with a regularized, spatial-temporal expectation - maximization algorithm to complete the climatic record. Next, a quantile - matching algorithm was applied in order to verify the homogeneity of the data. The processed time series were used for the calculation of temporal annual and seasonal trends of air temperature and precipitation. Monthly maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation means at all available stations in Greece were analyzed for temporal trends and spatial variation patterns for the longest common time period of homogenous data (1955 - 2010), applying the Mann-Kendall test. The majority of the examined stations showed a significant increase in the summer maximum and minimum temperatures; this could be possibly physically linked to the Etesian winds, because of the less frequent expansion of the low over the southeastern Mediterranean. Summer minimum temperatures have been increasing at a faster rate than that of summer maximum temperatures, reflecting an asymmetric change of extreme temperature distributions. Total annual precipitation has been significantly decreased at the stations located in western Greece, as well as in the southeast, while the remaining areas exhibit a non-significant negative trend. This reduction is very likely linked to the positive phase of the NAO that resulted in an increase in the frequency and persistence of anticyclones over the Mediterranean.

Evaluation of non-stationarity of floods in the Northeastern and Upper Midwest United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhakal, N.; Palmer, R. N.

2017-12-01

Climate change is likely to impact precipitation as well as snow accumulation and melt in the Northeastern and Upper Midwest Unites States, ultimately affecting the quantity and seasonal distribution of streamflow. Such information is crucial for flood protection polices for example for regional flood frequency analysis. The objective of this study is to analyze seasonality and magnitude of long-term daily annual maximum streamflow (AMF) records and its changes for 158 sites in Northeastern and Upper Midwest Unites States. Temporal trends were analyzed based on two 30-year blocks (1951-1980 and 1981-2010) of AMF. Seasonality is assessed based on nonparametric directional/circular statistical method that allows for an adaptive estimation of seasonal density. The results for temporal change in seasonality showed mixed pattern/trend across the stations. While for majority of the stations, the distribution of AMF timing is strongly unimodal (concentrated around Spring season) for the earlier time period, the strength in the modes have gotten weaker during the recent time period for a number of stations along the coastal states indicating the emergence of multiple modes and change in seasonality therein. Assessment of the temporal change in magnitude of AMF based on the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test shows that majority of the stations do not show significant increasing or decreasing trend for either time period. It is also observed that comparatively more stations show increasing trends in magnitude based on AMF from earlier time period and most of these stations are coastal sites concentrated in the southeastern part of the region. Our study focused on both seasonality and magnitude of AMF has important implications for flood management and mitigation.

Temporal trends in cardiovascular disease risk factors among white, South Asian, Chinese and black groups in Ontario, Canada, 2001 to 2012: a population-based study.

PubMed

Chiu, Maria; Maclagan, Laura C; Tu, Jack V; Shah, Baiju R

2015-08-10

To determine ethnic-specific temporal trends in cardiovascular risk factors in Ontario between 2001 and 2012. A population-based repeated cross-sectional study. Ontario, Canada. 219,276 participants of the Canadian Community Health Survey (205,326 white, 5620 South Asian, 4368 Chinese and 3962 black) during the period 2001 to 2012. Age-standardised ethnic-sex-specific prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors for three time periods: 2001-2004, 2005-2008 and 2009-2012 among Canada's four major ethnic groups: white, South Asian, Chinese and black. During the study period, the prevalence of diabetes increased 2.3-fold (p = 0.0001) among South Asian males and 1.9-fold (p = 0.02) among black females. The prevalence of obesity (body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m(2)) increased over time across all ethnic groups, with the largest relative increases observed among males of Chinese (2.1-fold increase, p = 0.04) and black (1.7-fold increase, p = 0.06) descent. The prevalence of hypertension increased the most among black females. Smoking prevalence decreased by more than 20% among South Asian, Chinese and white females. Overall, South Asian males and black males and females showed the greatest declines in cardiovascular health over the study period. We observed important ethnic differences in the temporal trends in cardiovascular risk factor profiles in Ontario. Awareness of the direction and magnitude of these risk factor trends may be useful in informing targeted strategies for preventing cardiovascular diseases in multiethnic populations. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Temporal and spatial trends of perfluorinated compounds in juvenile loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) along the East Coast of the United States.

PubMed

O'Connell, Steven G; Arendt, Michael; Segars, Al; Kimmel, Tricia; Braun-McNeill, Joanne; Avens, Larisa; Schroeder, Barbara; Ngai, Lily; Kucklick, John R; Keller, Jennifer M

2010-07-01

Perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) are globally distributed persistent environmental contaminants. This study provides temporal trends as well as large-scale spatial trends of PFC concentrations in threatened juvenile loggerhead sea turtles near or from Florida Bay (FL Bay), Cape Canaveral (FL), Charleston (SC), Core Sound (NC), and Chesapeake Bay (MD). PFCs were extracted from 163 plasma and serum samples using solid-phase extraction and quantified with LC-MS/MS. Concentrations of six compounds significantly varied by site, with MD or FL Bay turtles having the highest concentrations. Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) was the predominant PFC at all sites (range: 0.31 ng/g to 39.0 ng/g). FL Bay turtles, compared to other sites, accumulated a unique PFC pattern with a higher proportion of perfluorocarboxylates compared to PFOS. Furthermore, this study was the first to statistically correlate wildlife PFC concentrations with human population, used as a proxy for urbanization and sources of PFCs to the environment. Positive relationships were found in which human population accounted for 75 and 81% of the variance in turtle PFOS and perfluoroundecanoate (PFUnA) concentrations (p = 0.06 and 0.04), respectively. PFOS and perfluorononanoate (PFNA) significantly decreased from 2000-2008 in SC turtles annually by 20 and 11%, respectively (p

Changes to the temporal distribution of daily precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajah, Kailash; O'Leary, Tess; Turner, Alice; Petrakis, Gabriella; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

2014-12-01

Changes to the temporal distribution of daily precipitation were investigated using a data set of 12,513 land-based stations from the Global Historical Climatology Network. The distribution of precipitation was measured using the Gini index (which describes how uniformly precipitation is distributed throughout a year) and the annual number of wet days. The Mann-Kendall test and a regression analysis were used to assess the direction and rate of change to both indices. Over the period of 1976-2000, East Asia, Central America, and Brazil exhibited a decrease in the number of both wet and light precipitation days, and eastern Europe exhibited a decrease in the number of both wet and moderate precipitation days. In contrast, the U.S., southern South America, western Europe, and Australia exhibited an increase in the number of both wet and light precipitation days. Trends in both directions were field significant at the global scale.

Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation and stream flow variations in Tigris-Euphrates river basin.

PubMed

Daggupati, Prasad; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Ahmadi, Mehdi; Verma, Deepa

2017-01-01

Tigris and Euphrates river basin (TERB) is one of the largest river basins in the Middle East, and the precipitation (in the form of snowfall) is a major source of streamflow. This study investigates the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation and streamflow in TERB to better understand the hydroclimatic variables and how they varied over time. The precipitation shows a decreasing trend with 1980s being wetter and 2000s being drier. A total of 55 and 40% reduction in high flows in Tigris and Euphrates rivers at T20 and E3 was seen in post-reservoir period. A lag time of 3 to 4 and 5 to 6 months was estimated between peak snowfall and runoff time periods. Decreasing precipitation and streamflow along with several planned dams could hamper the sustainability of several Mesopotamian marshlands that completely depend on the water from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers.

Development of A Dust Climate Indicator for the US National Climate Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, D.; Wang, J. X. L.; Gill, T. E.; Van Pelt, S.; Kim, D.

2016-12-01

Dust activity is a relatively simple but practical indicator to document the response of dryland ecosystems to climate change, making it an integral part of the National Climate Assessment (NCA). We present here a multi-agency collaboration that aims at developing a suite of dust climate indicators to document and monitor the long-term variability and trend of dust storm activity in the western United States. Recent dust observations have revealed rapid intensification of dust storm activity in the western United States. This trend is also closely correlated with a rapid increase in dust deposition in rainwater and "valley fever" hospitalization in southwestern states. It remains unclear, however, if such a trend, when enhanced by predicted warming and rainfall oscillation in the Southwest, will result in irreversible environmental development such as desertification or even another "Dust Bowl". Based on continuous ground aerosol monitoring, we have reconstructed a long-term dust storm climatology in the western United States. We report here direct evidence of rapid intensification of dust storm activity over US deserts in the past decades (1990 to 2013), in contrast to the decreasing trends in Asia and Africa. The US trend is spatially and temporally correlated with incidences of valley fever, an infectious disease caused by soil-dwelling fungus that has increased eight-fold in the past decade. We further investigate the linkage between dust variations and possible climate drivers and find that the regional dust trends are likely driven by large-scale variations of sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean, with the strongest correlation with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Future study will explore the link between the temporal and spatial trends of increase in dustiness and vegetation change in southwestern semi-arid and arid ecosystems.

Temporal and geographic patterns in population trends of brown-headed cowbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterjohn, B.G.; Sauer, J.R.; Schwarz, S.

2000-01-01

The temporal and geographic patterns in the population trends of Brown-headed Cowbirds are summarized from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. During 1966-1992, the survey-wide population declined significantly, a result of declining populations in the Eastern BBS Region, southern Great Plains, and the Pacific coast states. Increasing populations were most evident in the northern Great Plains. Cowbird populations were generally stable or increasing during 1966-1976, but their trends became more negative after 1976. The trends in cowbird populations were generally directly correlated with the trends of both host and nonhost species, suggesting that large-scale factors such as changing weather patterns, land use practices, or habitat availability were responsible for the observed temporal and geographic patterns in the trends of cowbirds and their hosts.

A decade of HIV-1 drug resistance in the United States: trends and characteristics in a large protease/reverse transcriptase and co-receptor tropism database from 2003 to 2012.

PubMed

Paquet, Agnes C; Solberg, Owen D; Napolitano, Laura A; Volpe, Joseph M; Walworth, Charles; Whitcomb, Jeannette M; Petropoulos, Christos J; Haddad, Mojgan

2014-01-01

Drug resistance testing and co-receptor tropism determination are key components of the management of antiretroviral therapy for HIV-1-infected individuals. The purpose of this study was to examine trends of HIV-1 resistance and viral evolution in the past decade by surveying a large commercial patient testing database. Temporal trends of drug resistance, viral fitness and co-receptor usage among samples submitted for routine phenotypic and genotypic resistance testing to protease inhibitors (PIs), nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), as well as for tropism determination were investigated. Within 62,397 resistant viruses reported from 2003 to 2012, we observed a decreasing trend in the prevalence of three-class resistance (from 25% to 9%) driven by decreased resistance to PIs (43% to 21%) and NRTIs (79% to 57%), while observing a slight increase in NNRTI resistance (68% to 75%). The prevalence of CXCR4-mediated entry among tropism testing samples (n=52,945) declined over time from 47% in 2007 to 40% in 2012. A higher proportion of CXCR4-tropic viruses was observed within samples with three-class resistance (50%) compared with the group with no resistance (36%). Decreased prevalence of three-class resistance and increased prevalence of one-class resistance was observed within samples reported between 2003 and 2012. The fraction of CXCR4-tropic viruses has decreased over time; however, CXCR4 usage was more prevalent among multi-class-resistant samples, which may be due to the more advanced disease stage of treatment-experienced patients. These trends have important implications for clinical practice and future drug discovery and development.

Spatial and temporal variability of reference evapotranspiration and influenced meteorological factors in the Jialing River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herath, Imali Kaushalya; Ye, Xuchun; Wang, Jianli; Bouraima, Abdel-Kabirou

2018-02-01

Reference evapotranspiration (ETr) is one of the important parameters in the hydrological cycle. The spatio-temporal variation of ETr and other meteorological parameters that influence ETr were investigated in the Jialing River Basin (JRB), China. The ETr was estimated using the CROPWAT 8.0 computer model based on the Penman-Montieth equation for the period 1964-2014. Mean temperature (MT), relative humidity (RH), sunshine duration (SD), and wind speed (WS) were the main input parameters of CROPWAT while 12 meteorological stations were evaluated. Linear regression and Mann-Kendall methods were applied to study the spatio-temporal trends while the inverse distance weighted (IDW) method was used to identify the spatial distribution of ETr. Stepwise regression and partial correlation methods were used to identify the meteorological variables that most significantly influenced the changes in ETr. The highest annual ETr was found in the northern part of the basin, whereas the lowest rate was recorded in the western part. In the autumn, the highest ETr was recorded in the southeast part of JRB. The annual ETr reflected neither significant increasing nor decreasing trends. Except for the summer, ETr is slightly increasing in other seasons. The MT significantly increased whereas SD and RH were significantly decreased during the 50-year period. Partial correlation and stepwise regression methods found that the impact of meteorological parameters on ETr varies on an annual and seasonal basis while SD, MT, and RH contributed to the changes of annual and seasonal ETr in the JRB.

Levels and trends of PBDEs and HBCDs in the global environment: status at the end of 2012.

PubMed

Law, Robin J; Covaci, Adrian; Harrad, Stuart; Herzke, Dorte; Abdallah, Mohamed A-E; Fernie, Kim; Toms, Leisa-Maree L; Takigami, Hidetaka

2014-04-01

In this paper, we have compiled and reviewed the most recent literature, published in print or online from January 2010 to December 2012, relating to the human exposure, environmental distribution, behaviour, fate and concentration time trends of polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) flame retardants, in order to establish their current trends and priorities for future study. More data are now becoming available for remote areas not previously studied, Indian Ocean islands, for example. Decreasing time trends for penta-mix PBDE congeners were seen for soils in northern Europe, sewage sludge in Sweden and the USA, carp from a US river, trout from three of the Great Lakes and in Arctic and UK marine mammals and many birds, but increasing time trends continue in polar bears and some birds at high trophic levels in northern Europe. This may be partially a result of the time delay inherent in long-range atmospheric transport processes. In general, concentrations of BDE209 (the major component of the deca-mix PBDE product) are continuing to increase. Of major concern is the possible/likely debromination of the large reservoir of BDE209 in soils and sediments worldwide, to yield lower brominated congeners which are both more mobile and more toxic, and we have compiled the most recent evidence for the occurrence of this degradation process. Numerous studies reported here reinforce the importance of this future concern. Time trends for HBCDs are mixed, with both increases and decreases evident in different matrices and locations and, notably, with increasing occurrence in birds of prey. Temporal trends for both PBDEs and HBCD in Asia are unclear currently. A knowledge gap has been noted in relation to metabolism and/or debromination of BDE209 and HBCD in birds. Further monitoring of human exposure and environmental contamination in areas of e-waste recycling, particularly in Asia and Africa, is warranted. More data on temporal trends of BDE and HBCD concentrations in a variety of matrices and locations are needed before the current status of these compounds can be fully assessed, and the impact of regulation and changing usage patterns among different flame retardants determined. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Querying temporal clinical databases on granular trends.

PubMed

Combi, Carlo; Pozzi, Giuseppe; Rossato, Rosalba

2012-04-01

This paper focuses on the identification of temporal trends involving different granularities in clinical databases, where data are temporal in nature: for example, while follow-up visit data are usually stored at the granularity of working days, queries on these data could require to consider trends either at the granularity of months ("find patients who had an increase of systolic blood pressure within a single month") or at the granularity of weeks ("find patients who had steady states of diastolic blood pressure for more than 3 weeks"). Representing and reasoning properly on temporal clinical data at different granularities are important both to guarantee the efficacy and the quality of care processes and to detect emergency situations. Temporal sequences of data acquired during a care process provide a significant source of information not only to search for a particular value or an event at a specific time, but also to detect some clinically-relevant patterns for temporal data. We propose a general framework for the description and management of temporal trends by considering specific temporal features with respect to the chosen time granularity. Temporal aspects of data are considered within temporal relational databases, first formally by using a temporal extension of the relational calculus, and then by showing how to map these relational expressions to plain SQL queries. Throughout the paper we consider the clinical domain of hemodialysis, where several parameters are periodically sampled during every session. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Temporal trends in symptom experience predict the accuracy of recall PROs

PubMed Central

Schneider, Stefan; Broderick, Joan E.; Junghaenel, Doerte U.; Schwartz, Joseph E.; Stone, Arthur A.

2013-01-01

Objective Patient-reported outcome measures with reporting periods of a week or more are often used to evaluate the change of symptoms over time, but the accuracy of recall in the context of change is not well understood. This study examined whether temporal trends in symptoms that occur during the reporting period impact the accuracy of 7-day recall reports. Methods Women with premenstrual symptoms (n = 95) completed daily reports of anger, depression, fatigue, and pain intensity for 4 weeks, as well as 7-day recall reports at the end of each week. Latent class growth analysis was used to categorize recall periods based on the direction and rate of change in the daily reports. Agreement (level differences and correlations) between 7-day recall and aggregated daily scores was compared for recall periods with different temporal trends. Results Recall periods with positive, negative, and flat temporal trends were identified and they varied in accordance with weeks of the menstrual cycle. Replicating previous research, 7-day recall scores were consistently higher than aggregated daily scores, but this level difference was more pronounced for recall periods involving positive and negative trends compared with flat trends. Moreover, correlations between 7-day recall and aggregated daily scores were lower in the presence of positive and negative trends compared with flat trends. These findings were largely consistent for anger, depression, fatigue, and pain intensity. Conclusion Temporal trends in symptoms can influence the accuracy of recall reports and this should be considered in research designs involving change. PMID:23915773

Temporal and spatial changes of rainfall and streamflow in the Upper Tekezē-Atbara river basin, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebremicael, Tesfay G.; Mohamed, Yasir A.; Zaag, Pieter v.; Hagos, Eyasu Y.

2017-04-01

The Upper Tekezē-Atbara river sub-basin, part of the Nile Basin, is characterized by high temporal and spatial variability of rainfall and streamflow. In spite of its importance for sustainable water use and food security, the changing patterns of streamflow and its association with climate change is not well understood. This study aims to improve the understanding of the linkages between rainfall and streamflow trends and identify possible drivers of streamflow variabilities in the basin. Trend analyses and change-point detections of rainfall and streamflow were analysed using Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests, respectively, using data records for 21 rainfall and 9 streamflow stations. The nature of changes and linkages between rainfall and streamflow were carefully examined for monthly, seasonal and annual flows, as well as indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHA). The trend and change-point analyses found that 19 of the tested 21 rainfall stations did not show statistically significant changes. In contrast, trend analyses on the streamflow showed both significant increasing and decreasing patterns. A decreasing trend in the dry season (October to February), short season (March to May), main rainy season (June to September) and annual totals is dominant in six out of the nine stations. Only one out of nine gauging stations experienced significant increasing flow in the dry and short rainy seasons, attributed to the construction of Tekezē hydropower dam upstream this station in 2009. Overall, streamflow trends and change-point timings were found to be inconsistent among the stations. Changes in streamflow without significant change in rainfall suggests factors other than rainfall drive the change. Most likely the observed changes in streamflow regimes could be due to changes in catchment characteristics of the basin. Further studies are needed to verify and quantify the hydrological changes shown in statistical tests by identifying the physical mechanisms behind those changes. The findings from this study are useful as a prerequisite for studying the effects of catchment management dynamics on the hydrological variabilities in the basin.

Changing Climate and Overgrazing Are Decimating Mongolian Steppes

PubMed Central

Liu, Yi Y.; Evans, Jason P.; McCabe, Matthew F.; de Jeu, Richard A. M.; van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; Dolman, Albertus J.; Saizen, Izuru

2013-01-01

Satellite observations identify the Mongolian steppes as a hotspot of global biomass reduction, the extent of which is comparable with tropical rainforest deforestation. To conserve or restore these grasslands, the relative contributions of climate and human activities to degradation need to be understood. Here we use a recently developed 21-year (1988–2008) record of satellite based vegetation optical depth (VOD, a proxy for vegetation water content and aboveground biomass), to show that nearly all steppe grasslands in Mongolia experienced significant decreases in VOD. Approximately 60% of the VOD declines can be directly explained by variations in rainfall and surface temperature. After removing these climate induced influences, a significant decreasing trend still persists in the VOD residuals across regions of Mongolia. Correlations in spatial patterns and temporal trends suggest that a marked increase in goat density with associated grazing pressures and wild fires are the most likely non-climatic factors behind grassland degradation. PMID:23451249

Changing climate and overgrazing are decimating Mongolian steppes.

PubMed

Liu, Yi Y; Evans, Jason P; McCabe, Matthew F; de Jeu, Richard A M; van Dijk, Albert I J M; Dolman, Albertus J; Saizen, Izuru

2013-01-01

Satellite observations identify the Mongolian steppes as a hotspot of global biomass reduction, the extent of which is comparable with tropical rainforest deforestation. To conserve or restore these grasslands, the relative contributions of climate and human activities to degradation need to be understood. Here we use a recently developed 21-year (1988-2008) record of satellite based vegetation optical depth (VOD, a proxy for vegetation water content and aboveground biomass), to show that nearly all steppe grasslands in Mongolia experienced significant decreases in VOD. Approximately 60% of the VOD declines can be directly explained by variations in rainfall and surface temperature. After removing these climate induced influences, a significant decreasing trend still persists in the VOD residuals across regions of Mongolia. Correlations in spatial patterns and temporal trends suggest that a marked increase in goat density with associated grazing pressures and wild fires are the most likely non-climatic factors behind grassland degradation.

Changing subsistence practices at the Dorset Paleoeskimo site of Phillip's Garden, Newfoundland.

PubMed

Hodgetts, Lisa M; Renouf, M A P; Murray, Maribeth S; McCuaig-Balkwill, Darlene; Howse, Lesley

2003-01-01

A comparison of identified faunal assemblages from the Dorset site of Phillip's Garden indicates that harp seal hunting was the main focus of activity throughout the site's occupation. Despite the highly specialized nature of site use, it appears that reliance on harp seal decreased over time while fish and birds became increasingly important. These changes may reflect longer seasonal occupations at the site in later centuries, and/or a decrease in the local availability of harp seal. The observed shift coincides with the onset of a local climatic warming trend, which might have affected harp seal movements in the area. Dorset subsistence and settlement patterns in Newfoundland are still poorly understood due to a lack of preserved faunal assemblages in the region. The temporal trend illustrated here indicates that we cannot assume that these patterns were static throughout the Dorset occupation of the island.

Monitoring vegetation dynamics with medium resolution MODIS-EVI time series at sub-regional scale in southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubovyk, Olena; Landmann, Tobias; Erasmus, Barend F. N.; Tewes, Andreas; Schellberg, Jürgen

2015-06-01

Currently there is a lack of knowledge on spatio-temporal patterns of land surface dynamics at medium spatial scale in southern Africa, even though this information is essential for better understanding of ecosystem response to climatic variability and human-induced land transformations. In this study, we analysed vegetation dynamics across a large area in southern Africa using the 14-years (2000-2013) of medium spatial resolution (250 m) MODIS-EVI time-series data. Specifically, we investigated temporal changes in the time series of key phenometrics including overall greenness, peak and timing of annual greenness over the monitoring period and study region. In order to specifically capture spatial and per pixel vegetation changes over time, we calculated trends in these phenometrics using a robust trend analysis method. The results showed that interannual vegetation dynamics followed precipitation patterns with clearly differentiated seasonality. The earliest peak greenness during 2000-2013 occurred at the end of January in the year 2000 and the latest peak greenness was observed at the mid of March in 2012. Specifically spatial patterns of long-term vegetation trends allowed mapping areas of (i) decrease or increase in overall greenness, (ii) decrease or increase of peak greenness, and (iii) shifts in timing of occurrence of peak greenness over the 14-year monitoring period. The observed vegetation decline in the study area was mainly attributed to human-induced factors. The obtained information is useful to guide selection of field sites for detailed vegetation studies and land rehabilitation interventions and serve as an input for a range of land surface models.

Problems in evaluating regional and local trends in temperature: An example from eastern Colorado, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pielke, R.A.; Stohlgren, T.; Schell, L.; Parton, W.; Doesken, N.; Redmond, K.; Moeny, J.; McKee, T.; Kittel, T.G.F.

2002-01-01

We evaluated long-term trends in average maximum and minimum temperatures, threshold temperatures, and growing season in eastern Colorado, USA, to explore the potential shortcomings of many climate-change studies that either: (1) generalize regional patterns from single stations, single seasons, or a few parameters over short duration from averaging dissimilar stations: or (2) generalize an average regional pattern from coarse-scale general circulation models. Based on 11 weather stations, some trends were weakly regionally consistent with previous studies of night-time temperature warming. Long-term (80 + years) mean minimum temperatures increased significantly (P < 0.2) in about half the stations in winter, spring, and autumn and six stations had significant decreases in the number of days per year with temperatures ??? - 17.8 ??C (???0??F). However, spatial and temporal variation in the direction of change was enormous for all the other weather parameters tested, and, in the majority of tests, few stations showed significant trends (even at P < 0.2). In summer, four stations had significant increases and three stations had significant decreases in minimum temperatures, producing a strongly mixed regional signal. Trends in maximum temperature varied seasonally and geographically, as did trends in threshold temperature days ???32.2??C (???90??F) or days ???37.8??C (???100??F). There was evidence of a subregional cooling in autumn's maximum temperatures, with five stations showing significant decreasing trends. There were many geographic anomalies where neighbouring weather stations differed greatly in the magnitude of change or where they had significant and opposite trends. We conclude that sub-regional spatial and seasonal variation cannot be ignored when evaluating the direction and magnitude of climate change. It is unlikely that one or a few weather stations are representative of regional climate trends, and equally unlikely that regionally projected climate change from coarse-scale general circulation models will accurately portray trends at sub-regional scales. However, the assessment of a group of stations for consistent more qualitative trends (such as the number of days less than - 17.8??C, such as we found) provides a reasonably robust procedure to evaluate climate trends and variability. Copyright ?? 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.

Phosphorus and nitrogen fluxes carried by 21 Finnish agricultural rivers in 1985-2006.

PubMed

Ekholm, Petri; Rankinen, Katri; Rita, Hannu; Räike, Antti; Sjöblom, Heidi; Raateland, Arjen; Vesikko, Ljudmila; Cano Bernal, José Enrique; Taskinen, Antti

2015-04-01

The Finnish Agri-Environmental Programme aims to reduce nutrient load to waters. Using national monitoring data, we estimated the agricultural load (incl. natural background) of total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) transported by 21 Finnish rivers to the northern Baltic Sea and analysed the flow-adjusted trends in the loads and concentrations from 1985 to 2006. We also related the loads to spatial and temporal patterns in catchment and agricultural characteristics. Agricultural load of TN increased, especially in the rivers discharging into the Bothnian Bay, while the load of TP decreased in most of the rivers, except those discharging into the Archipelago Sea. The trends may partly be related to a decrease in grassed area (TP, TN) and increased mineralisation (TN), but the available data on catchment and agricultural characteristics did not fully explain the observed pattern. Our study showed that data arising from relatively infrequent monitoring may prove useful for analysing long-term trend. The mutual correlation among the explaining variables hampered the analysis of the load generating factors.

Spatio-temporal variability of soil water content on the local scale in a Mediterranean mountain area (Vallcebre, North Eastern Spain). How different spatio-temporal scales reflect mean soil water content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molina, Antonio J.; Latron, Jérôme; Rubio, Carles M.; Gallart, Francesc; Llorens, Pilar

2014-08-01

As a result of complex human-land interactions and topographic variability, many Mediterranean mountain catchments are covered by agricultural terraces that have locally modified the soil water content dynamic. Understanding these local-scale dynamics helps us grasp better how hydrology behaves on the catchment scale. Thus, this study examined soil water content variability in the upper 30 cm of the soil on a Mediterranean abandoned terrace in north-east Spain. Using a dataset of high spatial (regular grid of 128 automatic TDR probes at 2.5 m intervals) and temporal (20-min time step) resolution, gathered throughout a 84-day period, the spatio-temporal variability of soil water content at the local scale and the way that different spatio-temporal scales reflect the mean soil water content were investigated. Soil water content spatial variability and its relation to wetness conditions were examined, along with the spatial structuring of the soil water content within the terrace. Then, the ability of single probes and of different combinations of spatial measurements (transects and grids) to provide a good estimate of mean soil water content on the terrace scale was explored by means of temporal stability analyses. Finally, the effect of monitoring frequency on the magnitude of detectable daily soil water content variations was studied. Results showed that soil water content spatial variability followed a bimodal pattern of increasing absolute variability with increasing soil water content. In addition, a linear trend of decreasing soil water content as the distance from the inner part of the terrace increased was identified. Once this trend was subtracted, resulting semi-variograms suggested that the spatial resolution examined was too high to appreciate spatial structuring in the data. Thus, the spatial pattern should be considered as random. Of all the spatial designs tested, the 10 × 10 m mesh grid (9 probes) was considered the most suitable option for a good, time-stable estimate of mean soil water content, as no improvement was obtained with the 5 × 5 m mesh grid (30 probes). Finally, the results of temporal aggregation showed that decreasing the monitoring frequency down to 8 h during wetting-up periods and to 1 day during drying-down ones did not result in a loss of information on daily soil water content variations.

SNR and functional sensitivity of BOLD and perfusion-based fMRI using arterial spin labeling with spiral SENSE at 3 T.

PubMed

Perthen, Joanna E; Bydder, Mark; Restom, Khaled; Liu, Thomas T

2008-05-01

Blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies using parallel imaging to reduce the readout window have reported a loss in temporal signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) that is less than would be expected given a purely thermal noise model. In this study, the impact of parallel imaging on the noise components and functional sensitivity of both BOLD and perfusion-based fMRI data was investigated. Dual-echo arterial spin labeling data were acquired on five subjects using sensitivity encoding (SENSE), at reduction factors (R) of 1, 2 and 3. Direct recording of cardiac and respiratory activity during data acquisition enabled the retrospective removal of physiological noise. The temporal SNR of the perfusion time series closely followed the thermal noise prediction of a radicalR loss in SNR as the readout window was shortened, with temporal SNR values (relative to the R=1 data) of 0.72 and 0.56 for the R=2 and R=3 data, respectively, after accounting for physiological noise. However, the BOLD temporal SNR decreased more slowly than predicted even after accounting for physiological noise, with relative temporal SNR values of 0.80 and 0.63 for the R=2 and R=3 data, respectively. Spectral analysis revealed that the BOLD trends were dominated by low-frequency fluctuations, which were not dominant in the perfusion data due to signal processing differences. The functional sensitivity, assessed using mean F values over activated regions of interest (ROIs), followed the temporal SNR trends for the BOLD data. However, results for the perfusion data were more dependent on the threshold used for ROI selection, most likely due to the inherently low SNR of functional perfusion data.

Trends and determinants of discretionary salt use: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2003-2012

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The objective of this study was to examine the recent temporal trends and current determinants of discretionary salt use in the United States. We used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), 2003-2012. We used multiple logistic regression to assess temporal trends ...

Hydrochemical evaluation of river water quality—a case study: Horroud River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falah, Fatemeh; Haghizadeh, Ali

2017-12-01

Surface waters, especially rivers are the most important sources of water supply for drinking and agricultural purposes. Water with desirable quality is necessary for human life. Therefore, knowledge of water quality and its temporal changes is of particular importance in sustainable management of water resources. In this study, available data during 20 years from two hydrometry stations located in the way of Horroud River in Lorestan province were used and analyzed using Aq.QA software. Piper, Schoeller, Stiff, and Wilcox diagram were drawn and Mann-Kendal test was used for determining data trend. According to Wilcox diagram, water of this river in both stations is placed in c2s1 class which is good for agricultural purposes, and according to Schoeller diagram, there is no restrict for drinking purposes. Results of Man-Kendal test show increasing trend for colorine, EC, TDS while decreasing trend for potassium in Kakareza station. On the other hand in Dehnu station, positive trend was seen in calcium and colorine while negative trend for sulfate and potassium. For other variables, no specific trend was found.

Temporal trends and factors associated with diabetes mellitus among patients hospitalized with heart failure: Findings from Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure registry.

PubMed

Echouffo-Tcheugui, Justin B; Xu, Haolin; DeVore, Adam D; Schulte, Phillip J; Butler, Javed; Yancy, Clyde W; Bhatt, Deepak L; Hernandez, Adrian F; Heidenreich, Paul A; Fonarow, Gregg C

2016-12-01

The contribution of diabetes to the burden of heart failure (HF) remains largely undescribed. Assessing diabetes temporal trends among US patients hospitalized with HF and their relation with quality measures in real-world practice can help to define this burden. Using data from the Get With the Guidelines-Heart Failure registry, we assessed temporal trends in diabetes prevalence among patients with HF and in subgroups with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF; EF < 40%), borderline EF (HFbEF; 40%≤EF <50%), or preserved EF (HFpEF; EF ≥ 50%), hospitalized between 2005 and 2015. Logistic regression was used to assess whether in-hospital outcomes and HF quality of care were related to trends. Among 364,480 HF hospitalizations, 160,171 had diabetes (44.0% overall, 41.8% in HFrEF, 46.7% in HFbEF, 45.5% in HFpEF). There was a temporal increase in diabetes frequency in HF patients (43.2%-45.8%; P trend <.0001), including among those with HFrEF (42.0%-43.6%; P trend <.0001), HFbEF (46.0%-49.2%; P trend <.0001), or HFpEF (43.6%-46.8%, P trend <.0001). Diabetic patients had a longer hospital stay (adjusted odds ratio 1.14, 95% CI 1.12-1.16), but lower in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio 0.93 [0.89-0.97]) compared with those without diabetes, with limited differences in quality measures. Temporal trends in diabetes were not associated with in-hospital mortality or length of stay. There were no temporal interactions of most HF quality measures with diabetes status. Approximately 44% of hospitalized HF patients have diabetes, and this proportion has been increasing over the past 10years, particularly among those patients with new-onset HFpEF. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rural land-use trends in the conterminous United States, 1950-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Daniel G.; Johnson, Kenneth M.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Theobald, David M.

2005-01-01

In order to understand the magnitude, direction, and geographic distribution of land-use changes, we evaluated land-use trends in U.S. counties during the latter half of the 20th century. Our paper synthesizes the dominant spatial and temporal trends in population, agriculture, and urbanized land uses, using a variety of data sources and an ecoregion classification as a frame of reference. A combination of increasing attractiveness of nonmetropolitan areas in the period 1970–2000, decreasing household size, and decreasing density of settlement has resulted in important trends in the patterns of developed land. By 2000, the area of low-density, exurban development beyond the urban fringe occupied nearly 15 times the area of higher density urbanized development. Efficiency gains, mechanization, and agglomeration of agricultural concerns has resulted in data that show cropland area to be stable throughout the Corn Belt and parts of the West between 1950 and 2000, but decreasing by about 22% east of the Mississippi River. We use a regional case study of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern regions to focus in more detail on the land-cover changes resulting from these dynamics. Dominating were land-cover changes associated with the timber practices in the forested plains ecoregions and urbanization in the piedmont ecoregions. Appalachian ecoregions show the slowest rates of land-cover change. The dominant trends of tremendous exurban growth, throughout the United States, and conversion and abandonment of agricultural lands, especially in the eastern United States, have important implications because they affect large areas of the country, the functioning of ecological systems, and the potential for restoration.

Temporal variations of Cu in Jiaozhou Bay 1982-1986

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Dongfang; Zhu, Sixi; Wang, Zhikang; Su, Chunhua; Wang, Qiang

2017-12-01

This paper analyzed the temporal variations of Cu in Jiaozhou Bay during 1982-1986. Results showed that Cu contents in study years were 0.15-5.31 μg L-1, 0.77-20.60 μg L-1, 0.11-4.00 μg L-1, 0.10-0.43 μg L-1 and 0.18-0.77 μg L-1, respectively. The Cu pollution level in this bay was moderate during 1982-1983, yet for temporal variations Cu contents in surface waters were showing decreasing trend. Cu contents in spring, summer and autumn were 0.11-20.60 μg L-1, 0.10-4.86 μg L-1 and 0.11-3.56 μg L-1, respectively. This bay was moderate pollution in spring in 1982-1983, while in other seasons in study years was still slight. These indicated that the temporal variations of Cu pollution in this bay should be taken in to account in decision-making of pollution control practice.

Trends in the temporal distribution of park use

Treesearch

Robert E. Manning; Paula L. Cormier

1980-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to examine trends in the temporal distribution of park use. Plots of daily attendance data trace changes in temporal use distributions over time. A use concentration index quantifies and reduces to a single numerical indicator the degree of unevenness of recreation attendance data. The percent of total annual use accounted for by selected...

Temporal Topic Modeling to Assess Associations between News Trends and Infectious Disease Outbreaks.

PubMed

Ghosh, Saurav; Chakraborty, Prithwish; Nsoesie, Elaine O; Cohn, Emily; Mekaru, Sumiko R; Brownstein, John S; Ramakrishnan, Naren

2017-01-19

In retrospective assessments, internet news reports have been shown to capture early reports of unknown infectious disease transmission prior to official laboratory confirmation. In general, media interest and reporting peaks and wanes during the course of an outbreak. In this study, we quantify the extent to which media interest during infectious disease outbreaks is indicative of trends of reported incidence. We introduce an approach that uses supervised temporal topic models to transform large corpora of news articles into temporal topic trends. The key advantages of this approach include: applicability to a wide range of diseases and ability to capture disease dynamics, including seasonality, abrupt peaks and troughs. We evaluated the method using data from multiple infectious disease outbreaks reported in the United States of America (U.S.), China, and India. We demonstrate that temporal topic trends extracted from disease-related news reports successfully capture the dynamics of multiple outbreaks such as whooping cough in U.S. (2012), dengue outbreaks in India (2013) and China (2014). Our observations also suggest that, when news coverage is uniform, efficient modeling of temporal topic trends using time-series regression techniques can estimate disease case counts with increased precision before official reports by health organizations.

Temporal Topic Modeling to Assess Associations between News Trends and Infectious Disease Outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Saurav; Chakraborty, Prithwish; Nsoesie, Elaine O.; Cohn, Emily; Mekaru, Sumiko R.; Brownstein, John S.; Ramakrishnan, Naren

2017-01-01

In retrospective assessments, internet news reports have been shown to capture early reports of unknown infectious disease transmission prior to official laboratory confirmation. In general, media interest and reporting peaks and wanes during the course of an outbreak. In this study, we quantify the extent to which media interest during infectious disease outbreaks is indicative of trends of reported incidence. We introduce an approach that uses supervised temporal topic models to transform large corpora of news articles into temporal topic trends. The key advantages of this approach include: applicability to a wide range of diseases and ability to capture disease dynamics, including seasonality, abrupt peaks and troughs. We evaluated the method using data from multiple infectious disease outbreaks reported in the United States of America (U.S.), China, and India. We demonstrate that temporal topic trends extracted from disease-related news reports successfully capture the dynamics of multiple outbreaks such as whooping cough in U.S. (2012), dengue outbreaks in India (2013) and China (2014). Our observations also suggest that, when news coverage is uniform, efficient modeling of temporal topic trends using time-series regression techniques can estimate disease case counts with increased precision before official reports by health organizations.

Temporal Topic Modeling to Assess Associations between News Trends and Infectious Disease Outbreaks

PubMed Central

Ghosh, Saurav; Chakraborty, Prithwish; Nsoesie, Elaine O.; Cohn, Emily; Mekaru, Sumiko R.; Brownstein, John S.; Ramakrishnan, Naren

2017-01-01

In retrospective assessments, internet news reports have been shown to capture early reports of unknown infectious disease transmission prior to official laboratory confirmation. In general, media interest and reporting peaks and wanes during the course of an outbreak. In this study, we quantify the extent to which media interest during infectious disease outbreaks is indicative of trends of reported incidence. We introduce an approach that uses supervised temporal topic models to transform large corpora of news articles into temporal topic trends. The key advantages of this approach include: applicability to a wide range of diseases and ability to capture disease dynamics, including seasonality, abrupt peaks and troughs. We evaluated the method using data from multiple infectious disease outbreaks reported in the United States of America (U.S.), China, and India. We demonstrate that temporal topic trends extracted from disease-related news reports successfully capture the dynamics of multiple outbreaks such as whooping cough in U.S. (2012), dengue outbreaks in India (2013) and China (2014). Our observations also suggest that, when news coverage is uniform, efficient modeling of temporal topic trends using time-series regression techniques can estimate disease case counts with increased precision before official reports by health organizations. PMID:28102319

Trends and variability of the atmosphere–ocean turbulent heat flux in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere

PubMed Central

Herman, Agnieszka

2015-01-01

Ocean–atmosphere interactions are complex and extend over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Among the key components of these interactions is the ocean–atmosphere (latent and sensible) turbulent heat flux (THF). Here, based on daily optimally-interpolated data from the extratropical Southern Hemisphere (south of 30°S) from a period 1985–2013, we analyze short-term variability and trends in THF and variables influencing it. It is shown that, in spite of climate-change-related positive trends in surface wind speeds over large parts of the Southern Ocean, the range of the THF variability has been decreasing due to decreasing air–water temperature and humidity differences. Occurrence frequency of very large heat flux events decreased accordingly. Remarkably, spectral analysis of the THF data reveals, in certain regions, robust periodicity at frequencies 0.03–0.04 day−1, corresponding exactly to frequencies of the baroclinic annular mode (BAM). Finally, it is shown that the THF is correlated with the position of the major fronts in sections of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current where the fronts are not constrained by the bottom topography and can adjust their position to the atmospheric and oceanic forcing, suggesting differential response of various sections of the Southern Ocean to the changing atmospheric forcing. PMID:26449323

Changes in the treatment and outcomes of acute myocardial infarction in Quebec, 1988-1995

PubMed Central

Pilote, L; Lavoie, F; Ho, V; Eisenberg, M J

2000-01-01

BACKGROUND: Few studies have reported population-based information on the treatment trends and outcomes of patients who have had an acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We therefore examined patterns of care and outcomes for AMI patients in Quebec, Canada, between 1988 and 1995. METHODS: Longitudinal data files of hospital admissions in Quebec (Med-Echo database) and inpatient and outpatient services (Régie de l'Assurance Maladie du Québec database) were used to construct cohorts of all AMI patients in the province between 1988 and 1995. Temporal trends in the use of cardiac procedures after an AMI, discharge prescriptions and mortality rates were examined. RESULTS: Between 1988 and 1995 the age- and sex-adjusted rates of AMI in the Quebec population declined (148 per 100,000 in 1988 to 137 per 100,000 in 1995). The use of intensive cardiac procedures increased in the same period; the 1-year cumulative incidence rate of catheterization increased from 28% in 1988 to 31% in 1994, that of angioplasty rose from 8% to 15% and that of coronary artery bypass surgery from 6% to 8%. Prescriptions for ASA, beta-blockers, lipid-lowering agents and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors increased, and prescriptions for nitrates and calcium antagonists decreased. These temporal changes were paralleled by a decrease in mortality rates post-AMI. All-cause 1-year cumulative incidence mortality rates decreased from 23% in 1988 to 19% in 1994. INTERPRETATION: The decrease in AMI-related mortality in Quebec between 1988 and 1995 may be linked to changes in treatment strategies (i.e., increased use of cardiac surgical procedures and medications shown to increase survival). PMID:10920727

Long-term trends in alkalinity in large rivers of the conterminous US in relation to acidification, agriculture, and hydrologic modification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stets, Edward G.; Kelly, Valerie J.; Crawford, Charles G.

2014-01-01

Alkalinity increases in large rivers of the conterminous US are well known, but less is understood about the processes leading to these trends as compared with headwater systems more intensively examined in conjunction with acid deposition studies. Nevertheless, large rivers are important conduits of inorganic carbon and other solutes to coastal areas and may have substantial influence on coastal calcium carbonate saturation dynamics. We examined long-term (mid-20th to early 21st century) trends in alkalinity and other weathering products in 23 rivers of the conterminous US. We used a rigorous flow-weighting technique which allowed greater focus on solute trends occurring independently of changes in flow. Increasing alkalinity concentrations and yield were widespread, occurring at 14 and 13 stations, respectively. Analysis of trends in other weathering products suggested that the causes of alkalinity trends were diverse, but at many stations alkalinity increases coincided with decreasing nitrate + sulfate and decreasing cation:alkalinity ratios, which is consistent with recovery from acidification. A positive correlation between the Sen–Thiel slopes of alkalinity increases and agricultural lime usage indicated that agricultural lime contributed to increasing solute concentration in some areas. However, several stations including the Altamaha, Upper Mississippi, and San Joaquin Rivers exhibited solute trends, such as increasing cation:alkalinity ratios and increasing nitrate + sulfate, more consistent with increasing acidity, emphasizing that multiple processes affect alkalinity trends in large rivers. This study was unique in its examination of alkalinity trends in large rivers covering a wide range of climate and land use types, but more detailed analyses will help to better elucidate temporal changes to river solutes and especially the effects they may have on coastal calcium carbonate saturation state.

Long-term trends in alkalinity in large rivers of the conterminous US in relation to acidification, agriculture, and hydrologic modification.

PubMed

Stets, E G; Kelly, V J; Crawford, C G

2014-08-01

Alkalinity increases in large rivers of the conterminous US are well known, but less is understood about the processes leading to these trends as compared with headwater systems more intensively examined in conjunction with acid deposition studies. Nevertheless, large rivers are important conduits of inorganic carbon and other solutes to coastal areas and may have substantial influence on coastal calcium carbonate saturation dynamics. We examined long-term (mid-20th to early 21st century) trends in alkalinity and other weathering products in 23 rivers of the conterminous US. We used a rigorous flow-weighting technique which allowed greater focus on solute trends occurring independently of changes in flow. Increasing alkalinity concentrations and yield were widespread, occurring at 14 and 13 stations, respectively. Analysis of trends in other weathering products suggested that the causes of alkalinity trends were diverse, but at many stations alkalinity increases coincided with decreasing nitrate+sulfate and decreasing cation:alkalinity ratios, which is consistent with recovery from acidification. A positive correlation between the Sen-Thiel slopes of alkalinity increases and agricultural lime usage indicated that agricultural lime contributed to increasing solute concentration in some areas. However, several stations including the Altamaha, Upper Mississippi, and San Joaquin Rivers exhibited solute trends, such as increasing cation:alkalinity ratios and increasing nitrate+sulfate, more consistent with increasing acidity, emphasizing that multiple processes affect alkalinity trends in large rivers. This study was unique in its examination of alkalinity trends in large rivers covering a wide range of climate and land use types, but more detailed analyses will help to better elucidate temporal changes to river solutes and especially the effects they may have on coastal calcium carbonate saturation state. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Sea level anomaly on the Patagonian continental shelf: Trends, annual patterns and geostrophic flows

PubMed Central

Saraceno, M.; Piola, A. R.; Strub, P. T.

2016-01-01

Abstract We study the annual patterns and linear trend of satellite sea level anomaly (SLA) over the southwest South Atlantic continental shelf (SWACS) between 54ºS and 36ºS. Results show that south of 42°S the thermal steric effect explains nearly 100% of the annual amplitude of the SLA, while north of 42°S it explains less than 60%. This difference is due to the halosteric contribution. The annual wind variability plays a minor role over the whole continental shelf. The temporal linear trend in SLA ranges between 1 and 5 mm/yr (95% confidence level). The largest linear trends are found north of 39°S, at 42°S and at 50°S. We propose that in the northern region the large positive linear trends are associated with local changes in the density field caused by advective effects in response to a southward displacement of the South Atlantic High. The causes of the relative large SLA trends in two southern coastal regions are discussed as a function meridional wind stress and river discharge. Finally, we combined the annual cycle of SLA with the mean dynamic topography to estimate the absolute geostrophic velocities. This approach provides the first comprehensive description of the seasonal component of SWACS circulation based on satellite observations. The general circulation of the SWACS is northeastward with stronger/weaker geostrophic currents in austral summer/winter. At all latitudes, geostrophic velocities are larger (up to 20 cm/s) close to the shelf‐break and decrease toward the coast. This spatio‐temporal pattern is more intense north of 45°S. PMID:27840784

Study of temporal trends in mercury concentrations in the primary flight feathers of Strix aluco.

PubMed

Varela, Z; García-Seoane, R; Fernández, J A; Carballeira, A; Aboal, J R

2016-08-01

Temporal trends in Hg concentrations were determined in the primary flight feathers of 146 specimens of Strix aluco which had died in various Wildlife Recovery Centres in Galicia (NW Spain) between 1997 and 2014. The aim of the study was to determine whether standardization of a primary flight feather (or feathers) in this species is essential for identifying temporal trends in Hg concentrations. For this purpose, we had to first standardize the feather(s) analyzed to enable comparison of the levels of Hg detected in different feathers. The results show a high degree of both inter and intra-individual variability but despite that, it was possible to identify P5 as the most representative feather taking into account the amount of metal excreted in each feather and the intra-individual variability: its median was 133ng, which represents 15% (from 7% to 15%) of the total Hg present in all the primary feathers. However, this "standard feather" did not reveal any temporal trend in Hg concentrations for the study period. This lack of trend was found irrespective of the feather considered and it is expected that detection of any existing trend would also not depend on the feather considered. We conclude that use of any particular feather is not essential for identifying temporal trends in Hg concentrations, because the pattern will be identified regardless of the feather selected. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Temporal changes in surface-water insecticide concentrations after the phaseout of diazinon and chlorpyrifos

USGS Publications Warehouse

Phillips, P.J.; Ator, S.W.; Nystrom, E.A.

2007-01-01

The recent (late 2001) federally mandated phaseout of diazinon and chlorpyrifos insecticide use in outdoor urban settings has resulted in a rapid decline in concentrations of these insecticides in urban streams and rivers in the northeastern and midwestern United States. Assessment of temporal insecticide trends at 20 sites showed that significant step decreases in diazinon concentrations occurred at 90% of the sites after the phaseout, with concentrations generally decreasing by over 50% in summer samples. Chlorpyrifos concentrations showed significant step decreases in at least 1 season at 3 of the 4 sites with sufficient data for analysis. The decrease in diazinon concentrations in response to the phaseout resulted in a decline in the frequency of concentrations exceeding the acute invertebrate water-quality benchmark of 0.1 ??g/L from 10% of pre-phaseout summer samples to fewer than 1% of post-phaseout summer samples. Although some studies have indicated an increase in concentrations of carbaryl in response to the organophosphorous phaseout, carbaryl concentrations only increased at 1 site after the phaseout. A full assessment of the effect of the phaseout of diazinon and chlorpyrifos on surface water will require data on other insecticides used to replace these compounds.

Trend analysis of precipitation in Jharkhand State, India. Investigating precipitation variability in Jharkhand State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandniha, Surendra Kumar; Meshram, Sarita Gajbhiye; Adamowski, Jan Franklin; Meshram, Chandrashekhar

2017-10-01

Jharkhand is one of the eastern states of India which has an agriculture-based economy. Uncertain and erratic distribution of precipitation as well as a lack of state water resources planning is the major limitation to crop growth in the region. In this study, the spatial and temporal variability in precipitation in the state was examined using a monthly precipitation time series of 111 years (1901-2011) from 18 meteorological stations. Autocorrelation and Mann-Kendall/modified Mann-Kendall tests were utilized to detect possible trends, and the Theil and Sen slope estimator test was used to determine the magnitude of change over the entire time series. The most probable change year (change point) was detected using the Pettitt-Mann-Whitney test, and the entire time series was sub-divided into two parts: before and after the change point. Arc-Map 9.3 software was utilized to assess the spatial patterns of the trends over the entire state. Annual precipitation exhibited a decreasing trend in 5 out of 18 stations during the whole period. For annual, monsoon and winter periods of precipitation, the slope test indicated a decreasing trend for all stations during 1901-2011. The highest variability was observed in post-monsoon precipitation (77.87 %) and the lowest variability was observed in the annual series (15.76 %) over the 111 years. An increasing trend in precipitation in the state was found during the period 1901-1949, which was reversed during the subsequent period (1950-2011).

Possible Explanation of the Different Temporal Behaviors of Various Classes of Sunspot Groups

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Peng-Xin; Li, Ke-Jun; Li, Fu-Yu

2017-09-01

In order to investigate the periodicity and long-term trends of various classes of sunspot groups (SGs), we separated SGs into two categories: simple SGs (A/U ≤ 4.5, where A represents the total corrected whole spot area of the group in millionths of the solar hemisphere (msh), and U represents the total corrected umbral area of the group in msh); and complex SGs (A/U > 6.2). Based on the revised version of the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results sunspot catalogue, we investigated the periodic behaviors and long-term trends of simple and complex SGs from 1875 to 1976 using the Hilbert-Huang Transform method, and we confirm that the temporal behaviors of simple and complex SGs are quite different. Our main findings are as follows. i) For simple and complex SGs, the values of the Schwabe cycle wax and wane, following the solar activity cycle. ii) There are significant phase differences (almost antiphase) between the periodicity of 53.50 ± 3.79 years extracted from yearly simple SG numbers and the periodicity of 56.21 ± 2.92 years extracted from yearly complex SG numbers. iii) The adaptive trends of yearly simple and complex SG numbers are also quite different: for simple SGs, the values of the adaptive trend gradually increase during the time period of 1875 - 1949, then they decrease gradually from 1949 to 1976, similar to the rise and the maximum phase of a sine curve; for complex SGs, the values of the adaptive trend first slowly increase and then quickly increase, similar to the minimum and rise phase of a sine curve.

Trends and Variability in Temperature Sensitivity of Lilac Flowering Phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Huanjiong; Dai, Junhu; Rutishauser, This; Gonsamo, Alemu; Wu, Chaoyang; Ge, Quansheng

2018-03-01

The responses of plant phenology to temperature variability have many consequences for ecological processes, agriculture, forestry, and human health. Temperature sensitivity (ST) of phenology could measure how and to what degree plant could phenologically track climate change. The long-term trends and spatial patterns in ST have been well studied for vegetative phenology such as leaf unfolding, but trends to be expected for reproductive phenology in the future remain unknown. Here we investigate trends and factors driving the temporal variation of ST of first bloom date (FBD). Using the long-term FBD records during 1963-2013 for common lilac (Syringa vulgaris) from 613 stations in Europe, we compared changes in ST from the beginning to the end of the study period. The Spearman partial correlations were used to assess the importance of four influencing factors. The results showed that the temporal changes in ST of FBD varied considerably among time scales. Mean ST decreased significantly by 0.92 days °C-1 from 1963-1972 to 2004-2013 (P < 0.01), but remained stable from 1963-1987 to 1989-2013. The strength of FBD and temperature relationship, the spring temperature variance, and winter chill all impact ST in an expected way at most stations. No consistent responses of ST on photoperiod were found. Our results imply that the trends and variability in ST of flowering phenology are driving by multiple factors and impacted by time scales. Continued efforts are still needed to further examine the flowering-temperature relationship for other plant species in other climates and environments using similar methods to our study.

SOMA: A Proposed Framework for Trend Mining in Large UK Diabetic Retinopathy Temporal Databases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somaraki, Vassiliki; Harding, Simon; Broadbent, Deborah; Coenen, Frans

In this paper, we present SOMA, a new trend mining framework; and Aretaeus, the associated trend mining algorithm. The proposed framework is able to detect different kinds of trends within longitudinal datasets. The prototype trends are defined mathematically so that they can be mapped onto the temporal patterns. Trends are defined and generated in terms of the frequency of occurrence of pattern changes over time. To evaluate the proposed framework the process was applied to a large collection of medical records, forming part of the diabetic retinopathy screening programme at the Royal Liverpool University Hospital.

Implications for air quality and the impact of financial and economic crisis in South Spain: Geochemical evolution of atmospheric aerosol in the ceramic region of Bailén

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez de la Campa, A. M.; de la Rosa, J. D.

2014-12-01

A temporal series study of atmospheric aerosol was performed over the last ten years (2003-2012) in an urban background monitoring station with ceramic industrial influence, in Bailén, SE Spain. Temporal trends of major and minor chemical components of PM10 for a long term data series were investigated, showing that PM10 concentrations have been steadily decreasing over almost a decade, with a statistical significance. Measurements indicate a reduction of elements and components related to the industrial activity of brick-ceramic production (V, Cd, Rb, La, Cr, Ni, As, Pb and SO42-). Conversely, Cu levels define an increasing trend from the beginning of the study period but with the highest step trend since 2011-2012, coinciding with the beginning of the financial and economic crisis in 2008. A similar time evolution pattern of Cu and OC, EC, and K levels may be a tracer of domestic local combustion source, and a new biomass burning source has been identified. Chemical composition of olive tree logs suggest as the combustion of wood with high concentration of Cu can imply an increase of Cu concentration in the atmospheric particles compared with other sources such as traffic.

Spatial and temporal trends of contaminants in eggs of wading birds from San Francisco Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hothem, R.L.; Roster, D.L.; King, K.A.; Keldsen, T.J.; Marois, Katherine C.; Wainwright, S.E.

1995-01-01

Between 1989 and 1991, reproduction by black-crowned night-herons (Nycticorax nycticorax) and snowy egrets (Egretta thula) was studied at sites in San Francisco Bay. Eggs were collected from these and other bay sites and from South Wilbur Flood Area, a reference site in California's San Joaquin Valley. Eggs were analyzed for inorganic trace elements, organochlorine pesticides, and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Results were compared among sites and years and with results of previous studies. There was some evidence of impaired reproduction, but concentrations of contaminants were generally lower than threshold levels for such effects. Egg hatchability was generally good, with predation being the factor that most limited reproductive success. Mean PCB concentrations were generally higher in eggs from the south end of San Francisco Bay than from the north, but the only temporal change, an increase, was observed at Alcatraz Island. There were spatial differences for p,p'-DDE in night-heron eggs in 1990, but the highest mean concentration of DDE was in night-heron eggs from South Wilbur in 1991. Temporal declines in maximum concentrations of DDE in eggs were observed in the bay, but means did not change significantly over time, At Bair Island in the southern end of the bay, mean concentrations of mercury decreased while selenium increased in night-heron eggs over time, but there were no clear bay-wide spatial or temporal trends for either element.

Temporal Trends and Changing Racial/ethnic Disparities in Alcohol Problems: Results from the 2000 to 2010 National Alcohol Surveys.

PubMed

Zemore, Sarah E; Karriker-Jaffe, Katherine J; Mulia, Nina

2013-09-28

Economic conditions and drinking norms have been in considerable flux over the past 10 years. Accordingly, research is needed to evaluate both overall trends in alcohol problems during this period and whether changes within racial/ethnic groups have affected racial/ethnic disparities. We used 3 cross-sectional waves of National Alcohol Survey data (2000, 2005, and 2010) to examine a) temporal trends in alcohol dependence and consequences overall and by race/ethnicity, and b) the effects of temporal changes on racial/ethnic disparities. Analyses involved bivariate tests and multivariate negative binomial regressions testing the effects of race/ethnicity, survey year, and their interaction on problem measures. Both women and men overall showed significant increases in dependence symptoms in 2010 (vs. 2000); women also reported increases in alcohol-related consequences in 2010 (vs. 2000). (Problem rates were equivalent across 2005 and 2000.) However, increases in problems were most dramatic among Whites, and dependence symptoms actually decreased among Latinos of both genders in 2010. Consequently, the long-standing disparity in dependence between Latino and White men was substantially reduced in 2010. Post-hoc analyses suggested that changes in drinking norms at least partially drove increased problem rates among Whites. Results constitute an important contribution to the literature on racial/ethnic disparities in alcohol problems. Findings are not inconsistent with the macroeconomic literature suggesting increases in alcohol problems during economic recession, but the pattern of effects across race/ethnicity and findings regarding norms together suggest, at the least, a revised understanding of how recessions affect drinking patterns and problems.

A temporal study of Salmonella serovars in animals in Alberta between 1990 and 2001

PubMed Central

2005-01-01

Abstract Passive laboratory-based surveillance data from Alberta Agriculture Food and Rural Development were analyzed for common Salmonella serovars, prevalences, trends, and for the presence of temporal clusters. There were 1767 isolates between October 1990 and December 2001 comprising 63 different serovars, including 961 isolates from chickens, 418 from cattle, 108 from pigs, 102 from turkeys, and 178 from all other species combined. Salmonella Typhimurium, Heidelberg, Hadar, Kentucky, and Thompson were the 5 most frequently isolated serovars. Approximately 60% of the S. Typhimurium were isolated from cattle, whereas over 90% of the S. Heidelberg, Hadar, Kentucky, and Thompson were isolated from chickens. Salmonella Enteritidis was rarely isolated. There was an increasing trend in isolates from chickens, cattle, and pigs, and a decreasing trend in isolates from turkeys. Temporal clusters were observed in 11 of 15 serovars examined in chickens (S. Anatum, Heidelberg, Infantis, Kentucky, Mbandaka, Montevideo, Nienstedten, Oranienburg, Thompson, Typhimurium, and Typhimurium var. Copenhagen), 5 of 5 serovars in cattle (S. Dublin, Montevideo, Muenster, Typhimurium, and Typhimurium var. Copenhagen), and 1 of 3 serovars in pigs (S. Typhimurium). Short-duration clusters may imply point source infections, whereas long-duration clusters may indicate an increase in the prevalence of the serovar, farm-to-farm transmission, or a wide-spread common source. A higher concentration of clusters in the winter months may reflect greater confinement, reduced ventilation, stressors, or increased exposure to wildlife vectors that are sharing housing during the winter. Detection of large clusters of Salmonella may have public health implications in addition to animal health concerns. PMID:15971672

Spatial-temporal dynamics of NDVI and Chl-a concentration from 1998 to 2009 in the East coastal zone of China: integrating terrestrial and oceanic components.

PubMed

Hou, Xiyong; Li, Mingjie; Gao, Meng; Yu, Liangju; Bi, Xiaoli

2013-01-01

Annual normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration are the most important large-scale indicators of terrestrial and oceanic ecosystem net primary productivity. In this paper, the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor level 3 standard mapped image annual products from 1998 to 2009 are used to study the spatial-temporal characters of terrestrial NDVI and oceanic Chl-a concentration on two sides of the coastline of China by using the methods of mean value (M), coefficient of variation (CV), the slope of unary linear regression model (Slope), and the Hurst index (H). In detail, we researched and analyzed the spatial-temporal dynamics, the longitudinal zonality and latitudinal zonality, the direction, intensity, and persistency of historical changes. The results showed that: (1) spatial patterns of M and CV between NDVI and Chl-a concentration from 1998 to 2009 were very different. The dynamic variation of terrestrial NDVI was much mild, while the variation of oceanic Chl-a concentration was relatively much larger; (2) distinct longitudinal zonality was found for Chl-a concentration and NDVI due to their hypersensitivity to the distance to shoreline, and strong latitudinal zonality existed for Chl-a concentration while terrestrial NDVI had a very weak latitudinal zonality; (3) overall, the NDVI showed a slight decreasing trend while the Chl-a concentration showed a significant increasing trend in the past 12 years, and both of them exhibit strong self-similarity and long-range dependence which indicates opposite future trends between land and ocean.

Large-Scale Total Water Storage and Water Flux Changes over the Arid and Semiarid Parts of the Middle East from GRACE and Reanalysis Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forootan, E.; Safari, A.; Mostafaie, A.; Schumacher, M.; Delavar, M.; Awange, J. L.

2017-05-01

Previous studies indicate that water storage over a large part of the Middle East has been decreased over the last decade. Variability in the total (hydrological) water flux (TWF, i.e., precipitation minus evapotranspiration minus runoff) and water storage changes of the Tigris-Euphrates river basin and Iran's six major basins (Khazar, Persian, Urmia, Markazi, Hamun, and Sarakhs) over 2003-2013 is assessed in this study. Our investigation is performed based on the TWF that are estimated as temporal derivatives of terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) products and those from the reanalysis products of ERA-Interim and MERRA-Land. An inversion approach is applied to consistently estimate the spatio-temporal changes of soil moisture and groundwater storage compartments of the seven basins during the study period from GRACE TWS, altimetry, and land surface model products. The influence of TWF trends on separated water storage compartments is then explored. Our results, estimated as basin averages, indicate negative trends in the maximums of TWF peaks that reach up to -5.2 and -2.6 (mm/month/year) over 2003-2013, respectively, for the Urmia and Tigris-Euphrates basins, which are most likely due to the reported meteorological drought. Maximum amplitudes of the soil moisture compartment exhibit negative trends of -11.1, -6.6, -6.1, -4.8, -4.7, -3.8, and -1.2 (mm/year) for Urmia, Tigris-Euphrates, Khazar, Persian, Markazi, Sarakhs, and Hamun basins, respectively. Strong groundwater storage decrease is found, respectively, within the Khazar -8.6 (mm/year) and Sarakhs -7.0 (mm/year) basins. The magnitude of water storage decline in the Urmia and Tigris-Euphrates basins is found to be bigger than the decrease in the monthly accumulated TWF indicating a contribution of human water use, as well as surface and groundwater flow to the storage decline over the study area.

Estimating linear temporal trends from aggregated environmental monitoring data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erickson, Richard A.; Gray, Brian R.; Eager, Eric A.

2017-01-01

Trend estimates are often used as part of environmental monitoring programs. These trends inform managers (e.g., are desired species increasing or undesired species decreasing?). Data collected from environmental monitoring programs is often aggregated (i.e., averaged), which confounds sampling and process variation. State-space models allow sampling variation and process variations to be separated. We used simulated time-series to compare linear trend estimations from three state-space models, a simple linear regression model, and an auto-regressive model. We also compared the performance of these five models to estimate trends from a long term monitoring program. We specifically estimated trends for two species of fish and four species of aquatic vegetation from the Upper Mississippi River system. We found that the simple linear regression had the best performance of all the given models because it was best able to recover parameters and had consistent numerical convergence. Conversely, the simple linear regression did the worst job estimating populations in a given year. The state-space models did not estimate trends well, but estimated population sizes best when the models converged. We found that a simple linear regression performed better than more complex autoregression and state-space models when used to analyze aggregated environmental monitoring data.

Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

2013-01-01

Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

Early trends from the Study to Evaluate the Prospective Payment System Impact on Small Dialysis Organizations (STEPPS).

PubMed

Brunelli, Steven M; Monda, Keri L; Burkart, John M; Gitlin, Matthew; Neumann, Peter J; Park, Grace S; Symonian-Silver, Margarita; Yue, Susan; Bradbury, Brian D; Rubin, Robert J

2013-06-01

Launched in January 2011, the prospective payment system (PPS) for the US Medicare End-Stage Renal Disease Program bundled payment for services previously reimbursed independently. Small dialysis organizations may be particularly susceptible to the financial implications of the PPS. The ongoing Study to Evaluate the Prospective Payment System Impact on Small Dialysis Organizations (STEPPS) was designed to describe trends in care and outcomes over the period of PPS implementation. This report details early results between October 2010 and June 2011. Prospective observational cohort study of patients from a sample of 51 small dialysis organizations. 1,873 adult hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis patients. Secular trends in processes of care, anemia, metabolic bone disease management, and red blood cell transfusions. Facility-level data are collected quarterly. Patient characteristics were collected at enrollment and scheduled intervals thereafter. Clinical outcomes are collected on an ongoing basis. Over time, no significant changes were observed in patient to staff ratios. There was a temporal trend toward greater use of peritoneal dialysis (from 2.4% to 3.6%; P = 0.09). Use of cinacalcet, phosphate binders, and oral vitamin D increased; intravenous (IV) vitamin D use decreased (P for trend for all <0.001). Parathyroid hormone levels increased (from 273 to 324 pg/dL; P < 0.001). Erythropoiesis-stimulating agent doses decreased (P < 0.001 for IV epoetin alfa and IV darbepoetin alfa), particularly high doses. Mean hemoglobin levels decreased (P < 0.001), the percentage of patients with hemoglobin levels <10 g/dL increased (from 12.7% to 16.8%), and transfusion rates increased (from 14.3 to 19.6/100 person-years; P = 0.1). Changes in anemia management were more pronounced for African American patients. Limited data were available for the prebundle period. Secular trends may be subject to the ecologic fallacy and are not causal in nature. In the period after PPS implementation, IV vitamin D use decreased, use of oral therapies for metabolic bone disease increased, erythropoiesis-stimulating agent use and hemoglobin levels decreased, and transfusion rates increased numerically. Copyright © 2013 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effect of length and starting year on trend analyses of temperatures in Spanish mainland (1951-2010). Seasonal analyses: Spring (III)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas Solé, Celia; Peña Angulo, Dhais; Gonzalez Hidalgo, Jose Carlos; Brunetti, Michele

2017-04-01

In this poster we applied the moving window approach (see Poster I of this collection) to analyze trends of spring and its corresponding months (March, April, May) temperature mean values of maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) in Spanish mainland to detect the effects of length period and starting year. Monthly series belong to Monthly Temperature dataset of Spanish mainland (MOTEDAS). Database contains in its grid format of 5236 pixels of monthly series (10x10 km). The threshold used in spatial analyses considers 20% of land under significant trend (p<0.05). The most striking results are as follow: • Seasonal Tmax shows that global trend was positive and significant until the mid 80's with higher values than 75% from between 1954-2010 to 1979-2010, being reduced after to the north region. So, from 1985-2010 no significant trend have been detected. Monthly analyses show differences. March trend is not significant (<20% of area) since 1974-2010, while significant trend in April and May varies between 1961-2010/1979-2010 and 1965-2010/1980-2010 respectively, clearly located in northern midland and Mediterranean coastland. • Spring Tmin trend analyses is significantly (>20%) during all temporal windows, notwithstanding NW do not show global significant trend, and in the most recent temporal windows only affect significantly SE. Monthly analyses also differ. Not significant trend is detected in March from 1979-2010, and from 1985-2010 in May, being April the month in any temporal windows with more than 20% of land affected by significant trend. • Spatial differences are detected between windows (South-North in March, East-West in April-May. We can conclude Tmax trend varies accordingly temporal windows dramatically in spring and no significance has been detected in the recent decades. Northern areas and Mediterranean coastland seems to be the most affected. Monthy Tmax trend spatial analyses confirm the heterogeneity of diurnal temperatures; different spatial gradients in windows have been detected between months. Seasonal Tmin show a more global temporal pattern. Spatial gradients of significance between months have been detected, in some sense contraries to the observed in Tmax.

Diversity-dependent temporal divergence of ecosystem functioning in experimental ecosystems.

PubMed

Guerrero-Ramírez, Nathaly R; Craven, Dylan; Reich, Peter B; Ewel, John J; Isbell, Forest; Koricheva, Julia; Parrotta, John A; Auge, Harald; Erickson, Heather E; Forrester, David I; Hector, Andy; Joshi, Jasmin; Montagnini, Florencia; Palmborg, Cecilia; Piotto, Daniel; Potvin, Catherine; Roscher, Christiane; van Ruijven, Jasper; Tilman, David; Wilsey, Brian; Eisenhauer, Nico

2017-11-01

The effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning generally increase over time, but the underlying processes remain unclear. Using 26 long-term grassland and forest experimental ecosystems, we demonstrate that biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships strengthen mainly by greater increases in functioning in high-diversity communities in grasslands and forests. In grasslands, biodiversity effects also strengthen due to decreases in functioning in low-diversity communities. Contrasting trends across grasslands are associated with differences in soil characteristics.

Carbon and nitrogen isotope variations in tree-rings as records of perturbations in regional carbon and nitrogen cycles.

PubMed

Bukata, Andrew R; Kyser, T Kurtis

2007-02-15

Increasing anthropogenic pollution from urban centers and fossil fuel combustion can impact the carbon and nitrogen cycles in forests. To assess the impact of twentieth century anthropogenic pollution on forested system carbon and nitrogen cycles, variations in the carbon and nitrogen isotopic compositions of tree-rings were measured. Individual annual growth rings in trees from six sites across Ontario and one in New Brunswick, Canada were used to develop site chronologies of tree-ring delta 15N and delta 13C values. Tree-ring 615N values were approximately 0.5% per hundred higher and correlated with contemporaneous foliar samples from the same tree, but not with delta 15N values of soil samples. Temporal trends in carbon and nitrogen isotopic compositions of these tree-rings are consistent with increasing anthropogenic influence on both the carbon and nitrogen cycles since 1945. Tree-ring delta 13C values and delta 15N values are correlated at both remote and urban-proximal sites, with delta 15N values decreasing since 1945 and converging on 1% per hundred at urban-proximal sites and decreasing but not converging on a single delta 15N value in remote sites. These results indicate that temporal trends in tree-ring nitrogen and carbon isotopic compositions record the regional extent of pollution.

Temporal trends, gender, and geographic distributions in child and youth injury rates in Sweden.

PubMed

Ekman, R; Svanström, L; Långberg, B

2005-02-01

Sweden has the lowest child injury mortality rate in the world, 5.2/100 000 for children under 15. This paper describes temporal trends in Sweden, as well as gender related and geographic differences. The Swedish Cause-of-Death Register (1987-2001) and the Hospital Patient Register (1987-2002) were used to compare rates for the country as a whole and for discharges aged 0-20 by municipality, using the SEATS time series analysis program. There was a decrease in the rate of fatal unintentional injuries from 7 to 4 per 100 000 for girls and from 16 to 10 per 100 000 for boys since 1987. The gap between girls and boys was reduced and boys now have almost the same mortality rate as girls for violence related deaths. Road and other unintentional injuries show a general decrease whereas the pattern for falls varies by age and sex. Self inflicted injuries increased for both sexes, but more for girls. Substantial differences in injury rates between municipalities were also found-up to six times for girls and eight times for boys. Substantial declines in injury fatalities over time were found, but these were different for boys and girls. There remain substantial differences between municipalities. These data, published in a child injury atlas, have prompted substantial interest among media and the authorities.

Levels and patterns of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in soils after forest fires in South Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Eun Jung; Choi, Sung-Deuk; Chang, Yoon-Seok

2011-11-01

To investigate the influence of biomass burning on the levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in soils, temporal trends and profiles of 16 US Environmental Protection Agency priority PAHs were studied in soil and ash samples collected 1, 5, and 9 months after forest fires in South Korea. The levels of PAHs in the burnt soils 1 month after the forest fires (mean, 1,200 ng/g dry weight) were comparable with those of contaminated urban soils. However, 5 and 9 months after the forest fires, these levels decreased considerably to those of general forest soils (206 and 302 ng/g, respectively). The burnt soils and ash were characterized by higher levels of light PAHs with two to four rings, reflecting direct emissions from biomass burning. Five and 9 months after the forest fires, the presence of naphthalene decreased considerably, which indicates that light PAHs were rapidly volatilized or degraded from the burnt soils. The temporal trend and pattern of PAHs clearly suggests that soils in the forest-fire region can be contaminated by PAHs directly emitted from biomass burning. However, the fire-affected soils can return to the pre-fire conditions over time through the washout and wind dissipation of the ash with high content of PAHs as well as vaporization or degradation of light PAHs.

Spatio-temporal variation of water flow and sediment discharge in the Mahanadi River, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bastia, Fakira; Equeenuddin, Sk. Md.

2016-09-01

The transport of sediments by rivers to the oceans represents an important link between the terrestrial and marine ecosystem. Therefore, this work aims to study spatio-temporal variation of the sediment discharge and erosion rate in the Mahanadi river, one of the biggest rivers in India, over past three decades vis-à-vis their controlling factors. To understand the sediment load variation, the trend analysis in the time series data of rainfall, water and sediment discharge of the Mahanadi river were also attempted. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sen's methods were used to determine whether there was a positive or negative trend in the time series data with their statistical significance. The occurrence of abrupt changes was detected using Pettitt test. The trend test result represents that sediment load delivered from the Mahanadi river to the global ocean has decreased sharply at the rate of 0.515 × 106 tons/year between 1980 and 2010. Water discharge and rainfall in the basin showed no significant decreasing trend except at only one tributary. The decline in sediment discharge from the basin to the Bay of Bengal is mainly due to the increase in the number of dams, which has recorded the increase from 70 to 253 during the period of 1980 to 2010. Over the past 30 years the Mahanadi river has discharged about 49.0 ± 20.5 km3 of water and 17.4 ± 12.7 × 106 tons of sediment annually to the Bay of Bengal whereas the mean erosional rate is 265 ± 125 tons/km2/year over the period of 30 years in the basin. Based on the current data (2000-2001 to 2009-2010), sediment flux and water discharge to the ocean are 12 ± 5 × 106 tons/year and 49 ± 16 km3/year respectively; and ranking Mahanadi river second in terms of water discharge and sediment flux to the ocean among the peninsular rivers in India.

Decreasing child mortality, spatial clustering and decreasing disparity in North-Western Burkina Faso.

PubMed

Becher, Heiko; Müller, Olaf; Dambach, Peter; Gabrysch, Sabine; Niamba, Louis; Sankoh, Osman; Simboro, Seraphin; Schoeps, Anja; Stieglbauer, Gabriele; Yé, Yazoume; Sié, Ali

2016-04-01

Within relatively small areas, there exist high spatial variations of mortality between villages. In rural Burkina Faso, with data from 1993 to 1998, clusters of particularly high child mortality were identified in the population of the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), a member of the INDEPTH Network. In this paper, we report child mortality with respect to temporal trends, spatial clustering and disparity in this HDSS from 1993 to 2012. Poisson regression was used to describe village-specific child mortality rates and time trends in mortality. The spatial scan statistic was used to identify villages or village clusters with higher child mortality. Clustering of mortality in the area is still present, but not as strong as before. The disparity of child mortality between villages has decreased. The decrease occurred in the context of an overall halving of child mortality in the rural area of Nouna HDSS between 1993 and 2012. Extrapolated to the Millennium Development Goals target period 1990-2015, this yields an estimated reduction of 54%, which is not too far off the aim of a two-thirds reduction. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Trends in colorectal cancer incidence: a period and birth-cohort analysis in a well-defined French population.

PubMed

Chauvenet, Marion; Cottet, Vanessa; Lepage, Côme; Jooste, Valérie; Faivre, Jean; Bouvier, Anne-Marie

2011-06-30

France stands among high-risk areas for colorectal cancer. Different trends in CRC incidence are reported around the world. The aim of this study was to provide temporal trends in CRC incidence over a 30-year period in a French well-defined population. Between 1976 and 2005, 17,028 new cases were registered by the Burgundy digestive cancer registry. The mean variations in age-standardized incidence rates were estimated using a Poisson regression adjusted for age for each gender and location. The cumulative risk by birth cohort of developing a cancer over the age range 0-74 years was estimated using an age-cohort model. Incidence rates for right and left colon cancers increased more rapidly in males (respectively +11.7% and +10.3% on average by 5-year period) than in females (respectively +5.9% and +6.1%). It remained stable for sigmoid cancers in males (-0.1%) and decreased in females (-5.2%). It also decreased for rectal cancers both in males (-2.7%) and in females (-2.0%). The cumulative risk increased from 3.9% for males born around 1900 to 4.9% for those born around 1930 and then slightly decreased (4.5% among those born around 1950). It remained at the same level for females born around 1900 (2.7%) as for those born around 1930 (2.7%) and then slightly increased (2.9%) for those born around 1950. For right colon cancers, the cumulative risk increased strikingly in successive birth cohorts from 0.53% to 1.2% in males and 0.55% to 0.77% in females. The corresponding cumulative risks for the left colon were 0.24% and 0.42% in males and 0.14% and 0.29% in females. For sigmoid cancer, they decreased from 1.59% to 1.08% in males, and 0.88% to 0.80% in females. Temporal variations in incidence rates of colorectal cancers differed according to subsite, suggesting different aetiological factors and implications for diagnosis and screening strategies. Total colonoscopy must be the preferred strategy in high-risk groups or after a positive faecal occult blood test.

Time-varying trends of global vegetation activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, N.; Feng, X.; Fu, B.

2016-12-01

Vegetation plays an important role in regulating the energy change, water cycle and biochemical cycle in terrestrial ecosystems. Monitoring the dynamics of vegetation activity and understanding their driving factors have been an important issue in global change research. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), an indicator of vegetation activity, has been widely used in investigating vegetation changes at regional and global scales. Most studies utilized linear regression or piecewise linear regression approaches to obtain an averaged changing rate over a certain time span, with an implicit assumption that the trend didn't change over time during that period. However, no evidence shows that this assumption is right for the non-linear and non-stationary NDVI time series. In this study, we adopted the multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition (MEEMD) method to extract the time-varying trends of NDVI from original signals without any a priori assumption of their functional form. Our results show that vegetation trends are spatially and temporally non-uniform during 1982-2013. Most vegetated area exhibited greening trends in the 1980s. Nevertheless, the area with greening trends decreased over time since the early 1990s, and the greening trends have stalled or even reversed in many places. Regions with browning trends were mainly located in southern low latitudes in the 1980s, whose area decreased before the middle 1990s and then increased at an accelerated rate. The greening-to-browning reversals were widespread across all continents except Oceania (43% of the vegetated areas), most of which happened after the middle 1990s. In contrast, the browning-to-greening reversals occurred in smaller area and earlier time. The area with monotonic greening and browning trends accounted for 33% and 5% of the vegetated area, respectively. By performing partial correlation analyses between NDVI and climatic elements (temperature, precipitation and cloud cover) and analyzing the MEEMD-extracted trends of these climatic elements, we discussed possible driving factors of the time-varying trends of NDVI in several specific regions where trend reversals occurred.

Impacts of biodiversity loss on ocean ecosystem services.

PubMed

Worm, Boris; Barbier, Edward B; Beaumont, Nicola; Duffy, J Emmett; Folke, Carl; Halpern, Benjamin S; Jackson, Jeremy B C; Lotze, Heike K; Micheli, Fiorenza; Palumbi, Stephen R; Sala, Enric; Selkoe, Kimberley A; Stachowicz, John J; Watson, Reg

2006-11-03

Human-dominated marine ecosystems are experiencing accelerating loss of populations and species, with largely unknown consequences. We analyzed local experiments, long-term regional time series, and global fisheries data to test how biodiversity loss affects marine ecosystem services across temporal and spatial scales. Overall, rates of resource collapse increased and recovery potential, stability, and water quality decreased exponentially with declining diversity. Restoration of biodiversity, in contrast, increased productivity fourfold and decreased variability by 21%, on average. We conclude that marine biodiversity loss is increasingly impairing the ocean's capacity to provide food, maintain water quality, and recover from perturbations. Yet available data suggest that at this point, these trends are still reversible.

Temporal dynamic responses of roots in contrasting tomato genotypes to cadmium tolerance.

PubMed

Borges, Karina Lima Reis; Salvato, Fernanda; Alcântara, Berenice Kussumoto; Nalin, Rafael Storto; Piotto, Fernando Ângelo; Azevedo, Ricardo Antunes

2018-04-01

Despite numerous studies on cadmium (Cd) uptake and accumulation in crops, relatively little is available considering the temporal dynamic of Cd uptake and responses to stress focused on the root system. Here we highlighted the responses to Cd-induced stress in roots of two tomato genotypes contrasting in Cd-tolerance: the tolerant Pusa Ruby and the sensitive Calabash Rouge. Tomato genotypes growing in the presence of 35 μM CdCl 2 exhibited a similar trend of Cd accumulation in tissues, mainly in the root system and overall plants exhibited reduction in the dry matter weight. Both genotypes showed similar trends for malondialdehyde and hydrogen peroxide accumulation with increases when exposed to Cd, being this response more pronounced in the sensitive genotype. When the antioxidant machinery is concerned, in the presence of Cd the reduced glutathione content was decreased in roots while ascorbate peroxidase (APX), glutathione reductase (GR) and glutathione S-transferase (GST) activities were increased in the presence of Cd in the tolerant genotype. Altogether these results suggest APX, GR and GST as the main players of the antioxidant machinery against Cd-induced oxidative stress.

Spatial and temporal variations of wind erosion climatic erosivity in the farming-pastoral zone of Northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, Shuping; Yang, Ruixin; Yan, Yechao; Yang, Zhengwei; Wang, Dandan

2018-03-01

Wind erosion climatic erosivity is an important parameter to assess the possible effects of climatic conditions on wind erosion. In this paper, the wind erosion climatic factor (C-factor), which was used to quantify the wind erosion climatic erosivity, was calculated for the period 1960-2014 based on monthly meteorological data collected from 101 stations in the farming-pastoral zone of Northern China. The Mann-Kendall (M-K) test, trend analysis, and geostatistical analysis methods were used to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of the wind erosion climatic erosivity in this region. The result suggests that the annual C-factor, with a maximum of 76.05 in 1969 and a minimum of 26.57 in 2007, has a significant decreasing trend over the past 55 years. Strong seasonality in the C-factor was found, with the highest value in spring, which accounts for a significant proportion of the annual C-factor (41.46%). However, the coefficient of variation of the seasonal C-factor reaches a maximum in winter and a minimum in spring. The mean annual C-factor varies substantially across the region. Areas with high values of the mean annual C-factor (C ≥ 100) are located in Ulanqab and Dingxi, while areas with low values (C ≤ 10) lie in Lanzhou, Linxia, Dingxi, Xining, and Chengde. Spatial analysis on the trend of the C-factor reveals that 81% of the stations show statistically significant decreases at a 90% confidence level. An examination of the concentration ratio of the C-factor shows that the wind erosion climatic erosivity is concentrated in spring, especially in April, which makes this period particularly important for implementing soil conservation measures.

Temporal trends in adolescent pregnancies in Lombardy, Italy: 1996-2010.

PubMed

Parazzini, Fabio; Ricci, Elena; Cipriani, Sonia; Motta, Tiziano; Chiaffarino, Francesca; Malvezzi, Matteo; Bulfoni, Giuseppe

2013-04-01

Data from southern European countries concerning teenage pregnancy have not been properly analysed so far. We provide the temporal trend of adolescent pregnancy rates in Lombardy, Northern Italy. Using the hospital discharge register (1996-2010), teenage pregnancy-related admission rates per 1000 girls aged 13 to 19 years, residing in Lombardy, were computed. Miscarriage-, induced abortion-, and delivery ratios/100 pregnancies, and caesarean section ratio/100 deliveries, were calculated. The pregnancy rate increased from 9.07 in 1996-2000 to 10.20 in 2001-2005, and remained at that level (10.27) in 2006-2010. However, the rates by country of birth (native Italian and non-native Italian) showed a steady decline in 2003-2010, when data about residents in Lombardy, categorised by sex, age and country of birth, were available. The induced abortion rate rose from 5.38/1000 to 5.55/1000, then decreased slightly in 2006-2010. The abortion ratio/100 pregnancies diminished from 59.3 in 1996-2000 to 50.3 in 2006-2010. Between 1996 and 2010, the overall teenage pregnancy rate has risen in Lombardy. When the rates were calculated separately for adolescents born in Italy and immigrants, the trends reverted in the period 2003-2010: in both groups pregnancy- and birth rates steadily declined. Pregnancy-, abortion-, and birth rates in non-native Italians, after having dropped, are all still much higher than those among native Italians. Because the number of non-native Italian adolescent girls markedly increased over the last two decades, their group--with decreasing, but still higher, birth- and abortion rates--has caused the observed rise in those rates when all adolescents residing in Lombardy are considered indistinctly.

National trends in anterior cervical fusion procedures.

PubMed

Marawar, Satyajit; Girardi, Federico P; Sama, Andrew A; Ma, Yan; Gaber-Baylis, Licia K; Besculides, Melanie C; Memtsoudis, Stavros G

2010-07-01

Population-based database analysis. To analyze trends in patient- and healthcare-system-related characteristics, utilization and outcomes associated with anterior cervical spine fusions. Anterior cervical decompression and spine fusion (ACDF) is one of the most commonly performed surgical procedures of the spine. However, few data analyzing trends in patient- and healthcare-system-related characteristics, utilization and outcomes exist. Data from 1990 to 2004 collected in the National Hospital Discharge Survey were accessed. ACDF procedures were identified. Five-year periods of interest (POI) were created for temporal analysis and changes in the prevalence and utilization of this procedure as well as in patient- and healthcare-system-related variables were examined. The changes in the occurrence of procedure-related complications were evaluated. An estimated total of 771,932 discharges after ACDF were identified. Temporally, an almost 8-fold increase in total prevalence was accompanied by a similar increase in utilization (23/100.000 civilians/POI to 157/100.000/civilians/POI). The highest increase in utilization was observed in those > or =65 years (28-fold). Average age increased from 47.2 years to 50.5 years over time. Length of hospital stay decreased from 5.17 days to 2.38 days. Overall procedure-related complication rates decreased from 4.6% to 3.03%. The prevalence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, obesity, pulmonary, and coronary artery increased over time among patients undergoing ACDF. Despite limitations inherent to secondary analysis of large databases, we identified a number of significant changes in the utilization, demographics, and outcomes associated with ACDF, which can be used to assess the effect of changes in medical care, direct health care resources, and future research. The effect of the increased prevalence of comorbidities on medical practice remains to be evaluated. Further studies are necessary to evaluate causal relationships.

Past and present mercury accumulation in the Lake Baikal seal: Temporal trends, effects of life history, and toxicological implications.

PubMed

Poste, Amanda E; Pastukhov, Mikhail V; Braaten, Hans Fredrik Veiteberg; Ozersky, Ted; Moore, Marianne

2018-05-01

Despite global efforts to reduce anthropogenic mercury (Hg) emissions, the timescale and degree to which Hg concentrations in the environment and biota respond to decreased emissions remain challenging to assess or predict. In the present study we characterize long-term trends and life-history patterns in Hg accumulation and toxicological implications of Hg contamination for a freshwater seal from one of the world's largest lakes (Lake Baikal, Siberia, Russia) using contemporary tissues and archival teeth. Stable isotope analysis and Hg analyses of soft tissues (muscle, liver, kidney, blood, brain, heart) and teeth from 22 contemporary seals revealed rapid changes in diet and Hg accumulation in the first year of life with a stable diet and increase in tissue Hg throughout the rest of life. Although maternal transfer of Hg was an important source of Hg to seal pups, reproduction and lactation by female seals did not appear to result in sex-related differences in Hg concentrations or age-related accumulation in adult seals. Based on Hg analysis of archival teeth (n = 114) and reconstructed values for soft tissues, we also assessed temporal trends in seal Hg between the years 1960 and 2013. Seal Hg concentrations in hard (teeth) and soft (e.g., muscle, liver) tissues were highest in the 1960s and 1970s, followed by a decrease. The decline in seal Hg concentrations in recent decades was most likely driven by a reduction in Hg inputs to the lake, suggesting that global and regional efforts to reduce Hg emissions have been successful at reducing ecosystem and human health risks posed by Hg in Lake Baikal. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:1476-1486. © 2018 SETAC. © 2018 SETAC.

Temporal Trends in Mortality from Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke in Mexico, 1980-2012.

PubMed

Cruz, Copytzy; Campuzano-Rincón, Julio César; Calleja-Castillo, Juan Manuel; Hernández-Álvarez, Anaid; Parra, María Del Socorro; Moreno-Macias, Hortensia; Hernández-Girón, Carlos

2017-04-01

Over the past decades, the decline in mortality from stroke has been more pronounced in high-income countries than in low- and middle-income countries. We evaluated changes in temporal stroke mortality trends in Mexico according to sex and type of stroke. We assessed stroke mortality from Mexico's National Health Information System for the period from 1980 to 2012. We analyzed age-adjusted mortality rates by sex, type of stroke, and age group. The annual percentage change and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in the slopes of the age-adjusted mortality trends were determined using joinpoint regression models. The age-adjusted mortality rates due to stroke decreased between 1980 and 2012, from 44.55 to 33.47 per 100,000 inhabitants, and the AAPC (95% confidence interval [CI]) was -.9 (-1.0 to -.7). The AAPC for females was -1.1 (-1.5 to -.7) and that for males was -.7 (-.9 to -.6). People older than 65 years showed the highest mortality throughout the period. Between 1980 and 2012, the AAPC (95% CI) for ischemic stroke was -3.8 (-4.8 to -2.8) and was -.5 (-.8 to -.2) for hemorrhagic stroke. For the same period, the AAPC for intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) was -.7 (-1.6 to .2) and that for subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) was 1.6 (.4-2.8). The age-adjusted mortality rates of all strokes combined, ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and ICH, decreased between 1980 and 2012 in Mexico. However, the increase in SAH mortality makes it necessary to explore the risk factors and clinical management of this type of stroke. Copyright © 2017 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in monthly precipitation over the northwest of Iran (NWI)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asakereh, Hossein

2017-10-01

Increasing global temperatures during the last century have had their own effects on other climatic conditions, particularly on precipitation characteristics. This study was meant to investigate the spatial and temporal monthly trends of precipitation using the least square error (LSE) approach for the northwest of Iran (NWI). To this end, a database was obtained from 250 measuring stations uniformly scattered all over NWI from 1961 to 2010. The spatial average of annual precipitation in NWI during the period of study was approximately 220.9-726.7 mm. The annual precipitation decreased from southwest to northeast, while the large amount of precipitation was concentrated in the south-west and in the mountainous areas. All over NWI, the maximum and minimum precipitation records occurred from March to May and July to September, respectively. The coefficient of variation (CV) is greater than 44 % in all of NWI and may reach over 76 % in many places. The greatest range of CV, for instance, occurred during July. The spatial variability of precipitation was consistent with a tempo-spatial pattern of precipitation trends. There was a considerable difference between the amounts of change during the months, and the negative trends were mainly attributed to areas concentrated in eastern and southern parts of NWI far from the western mountain ranges. Moreover, limited areas with positive precipitation trends can be found in very small and isolated regions. This is observable particularly in the eastern half of NWI, which is mostly located far from Westerlies. On the other hand, seasonal precipitation trends indicated a slight decrease during winter and spring and a slight increase during summer and autumn. Consequently, there were major changes in average precipitation that occurred negatively in the area under study during the observation period. This finding is in agreement with those findings by recent studies which revealed a decreasing trend of around 2 mm/year over NWI during 1966-2005.

Trend Estimates of AERONET-Observed and Model-Simulated AOTs Between 1993 and 2013

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yoon, J.; Pozzer, A.; Chang, D. Y.; Lelieveld, J.; Kim, J.; Kim, M.; Lee, Y. G.; Koo, J.-H.; Lee, J.; Moon, K. J.

2015-01-01

Recently, temporal changes in Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) have been investigated based on model simulations, satellite and ground-based observations. Most AOT trend studies used monthly or annual arithmetic means that discard details of the generally right-skewed AOT distributions. Potentially, such results can be biased by extreme values (including outliers). This study additionally uses percentiles (i.e., the lowest 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% of the monthly cumulative distributions fitted to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)-observed and ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC)-model simulated AOTs) that are less affected by outliers caused by measurement error, cloud contamination and occasional extreme aerosol events. Since the limited statistical representativeness of monthly percentiles and means can lead to bias, this study adopts the number of observations as a weighting factor, which improves the statistical robustness of trend estimates. By analyzing the aerosol composition of AERONET-observed and EMAC-simulated AOTs in selected regions of interest, we distinguish the dominant aerosol types and investigate the causes of regional AOT trends. The simulated and observed trends are generally consistent with a high correlation coefficient (R = 0.89) and small bias (slope+/-2(sigma) = 0.75 +/- 0.19). A significant decrease in EMAC-decomposed AOTs by water-soluble compounds and black carbon is found over the USA and the EU due to environmental regulation. In particular, a clear reversal in the AERONET AOT trend percentiles is found over the USA, probably related to the AOT diurnal cycle and the frequency of wildfires. In most of the selected regions of interest, EMAC-simulated trends are mainly attributed to the significant changes of the dominant aerosols; e.g., significant decrease in sea salt and water soluble compounds over Central America, increase in dust over Northern Africa and Middle East, and decrease in black carbon and organic carbon over Australia.

Trends in Detection of Invasive Cancer and Ductal Carcinoma In Situ at Biennial Screening Mammography in Spain: A Retrospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Román, Marta; Rué, Montse; Sala, Maria; Ascunce, Nieves; Baré, Marisa; Baroja, Araceli; De la Vega, Mariola; Galcerán, Jaume; Natal, Carmen; Salas, Dolores; Sánchez-Jacob, Mercedes; Zubizarreta, Raquel; Castells, Xavier

2013-01-01

Background Breast cancer incidence has decreased in the last decade, while the incidence of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) has increased substantially in the western world. The phenomenon has been attributed to the widespread adaption of screening mammography. The aim of the study was to evaluate the temporal trends in the rates of screen detected invasive cancers and DCIS, and to compare the observed trends with respect to hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use along the same study period. Methods Retrospective cohort study of 1,564,080 women aged 45–69 years who underwent 4,705,681 screening mammograms from 1992 to 2006. Age-adjusted rates of screen detected invasive cancer, DCIS, and HRT use were calculated for first and subsequent screenings. Poisson regression was used to evaluate the existence of a change-point in trend, and to estimate the adjusted trends in screen detected invasive breast cancer and DCIS over the study period. Results The rates of screen detected invasive cancer per 100.000 screened women were 394.0 at first screening, and 229.9 at subsequent screen. The rates of screen detected DCIS per 100.000 screened women were 66.8 at first screen and 43.9 at subsequent screens. No evidence of a change point in trend in the rates of DCIS and invasive cancers over the study period were found. Screen detected DCIS increased at a steady 2.5% per year (95% CI: 1.3; 3.8), while invasive cancers were stable. Conclusion Despite the observed decrease in breast cancer incidence in the population, the rates of screen detected invasive cancer remained stable during the study period. The proportion of DCIS among screen detected breast malignancies increased from 13% to 17% throughout the study period. The rates of screen detected invasive cancer and DCIS were independent of the decreasing trend in HRT use observed among screened women after 2002. PMID:24376649

Determination of annual and seasonal daytime and nighttime trends of MODIS LST over Greece - climate change implications.

PubMed

Eleftheriou, Dimitrios; Kiachidis, Kyriakos; Kalmintzis, Georgios; Kalea, Argiro; Bantasis, Christos; Koumadoraki, Paraskevi; Spathara, Maria Eleni; Tsolaki, Angeliki; Tzampazidou, Maria Irini; Gemitzi, Alexandra

2018-03-01

Climate change is one of the most challenging research topics during the last few decades, as temperature rise has already posed a significant impact on the earth's functions thus affecting all life of the planet. Land Surface Temperature (LST) is identified as a key variable in environmental and climate studies. The present study investigates the distribution of daytime and nighttime LST trends over Greece, a country in the Mediterranean area which is identified as one of the main "hot-spots" of climate change projections. Remotely sensed LST data were obtained from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor in the form of 8-day composites of day and night values at a resolution of 1km for a 17-year period, i.e. from 2000 to 2017. Spatial aggregates of 10km×10km were computed and the annual and seasonal temporal trends were determined for each one of those sub-areas. Results showed that annual trends of daily LST in the majority of areas demonstrated decrease ranging from -1∗10 -2 °C to -1.3∗10 -3 °C, with some sporadic parts showing a slight increase. A totally different outcome is observed in the fate of night LST, with all areas over Greece demonstrating increasing annual trends ranging from 4.6∗10 -5 °C to 3.1∗10 -3 °C, with highest values in the South-East parts of the country. Seasonal trends in day and night LST showed the same pattern, i.e., a general decrease in the day LST and a definite increase in night. An interesting finding is the increase in winter LST trends observed both for day and night LST, indicating that the absolute minimum annual LST observed during winter in Greece increases. Our results also indicate that the annual diurnal LST range is decreasing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Significance of groundwater flux on contaminant concentration and mass discharge in the nonaqueous phase liquid (NAPL) contaminated zone.

PubMed

Zhu, Jianting; Sun, Dongmin

2016-09-01

Groundwater flowing through residual nonaqueous phase liquid (NAPL) source zone will cause NAPL dissolution and generate large contaminant plume. The use of contaminant mass discharge (CMD) measurements in addition to NAPL aqueous phase concentration to characterize site conditions and assess remediation performance is becoming popular. In this study, we developed new and generic numerical models to investigate the significance of groundwater flux temporal variations on the NAPL source dynamics. The developed models can accommodate any temporal variations of groundwater flux in the source zone. We examined the various features of groundwater flux using a few selected functional forms of linear increase/decrease, gradual smooth increase/decrease, and periodic fluctuations with a general trend. Groundwater flux temporal variations have more pronounced effects on the contaminant mass discharge dynamics than the aqueous concentration. If the groundwater flux initially increases, then the reduction in contaminant mass discharge (CMDR) vs. NAPL mass reduction (MR) relationship is mainly downward concave. If the groundwater flux initially decreases, then CMDR vs. MR relationship is mainly upward convex. If the groundwater flux variations are periodic, the CMDR vs. MR relationship tends to also have periodic variations ranging from upward convex to downward concave. Eventually, however, the CMDR vs. MR relationship approaches 1:1 when majority of the NAPL mass becomes depleted. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trends in atmospheric deposition fluxes of sulphur and nitrogen in Czech forests.

PubMed

Hůnová, Iva; Maznová, Jana; Kurfürst, Pavel

2014-01-01

We present the temporal trends and spatial changes of deposition of sulphur and nitrogen in Czech forests based on records from long-term monitoring. A statistically significant trend for sulphur was detected at most of the sites measuring for wet, dry, and total deposition fluxes and at many of these the trend was also present for the period after 2000. The spatial pattern of the changes in sulphur deposition flux between 1995 and 2011 shows the decrease over the entire forested area in a wide range of 18.1-0.2 g m(-2) year(-1) with the most pronounced improvement in formerly most impacted regions. Nitrogen still represents a considerable stress in many areas. The value of nitrogen deposition flux of 1 g m(-2) year(-1) is exceeded over a significant portion of the country. On an equivalent basis, the ion ratios of NO3(-)/SO4(2-) and NH4(+)/SO4(2-) in precipitation show significantly increasing trends in time similarly to those of pH. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association of baseline level of physical activity and its temporal changes with incident hypertension and diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Lee, Jong-Young; Ryu, Seungho; Sung, Ki-Chul

2018-01-01

Background The association between baseline and temporal changes in physical activity and incident hypertension or diabetes mellitus in initially non-hypertensive or non-diabetic subjects is rarely known. Methods Among individuals who underwent consecutive comprehensive health screenings, their physical activity level was measured using a self-reported international physical activity questionnaire. First, subjects were classified into four categories: no regular physical activity with a sedentary lifestyle; minimal physical activity (<75 min/week); insufficient physical activity (≥75 min but <150 min/week); and sufficient physical activity (≥150 min/week). Second, subjects were sub-grouped, based on temporal changes in physical activity level between baseline and consecutive follow-up: increase, no change, and decrease. Results Finally, among 174,314 subjects (mean age 36.7 ± 6.9 years), 5544 (3.18%) and 21,276 (12.2%) developed incident diabetes mellitus and arterial hypertension, respectively. After a multivariate adjustment, sufficient baseline physical activity was associated with significantly lower risk for incident hypertension (hazard ratio 0.89; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.81 to 0.97), but the difference was not significant, and showed a lower trend in diabetes mellitus incidence (hazard ratio 0.87; 95% CI 0.69 to 1.04) in reference to no regular physical activity group. Regardless of the baseline physical activity level, subjects with a temporal increase in physical activity showed significantly decreased risk for incident hypertension (hazard ratio 0.93; 95% CI 0.87 to 0.99) and diabetes mellitus (hazard ratio 0.83; 95% CI 0.74 to 0.92) compared with those with a temporal decrease in their physical activity level. Conclusion Both sufficient baseline physical activity level and its temporal increase were associated with a lower risk of incident hypertension and diabetes mellitus in a large, relatively healthy, cohort.

Temporal monitoring of liver and kidney lesions in contaminated East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) during 1999-2010.

PubMed

Sonne, Christian; Letcher, Robert J; Leifsson, Pall S; Rigét, Frank F; Bechshøft, Thea Ø; Bossi, Rossana; Asmund, Gert; Dietz, Rune

2012-11-01

Organohalogen contaminants bioaccumulate to high concentrations in tissues of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). The exposure levels are in the order to be toxic to inner organs like liver and kidney. We therefore investigated the temporal development of lesions in liver (n=115) and kidney (n=122) samples from East Greenland polar bears taken over the 12 year period from 1999 to 2010. Seven liver and seven kidney lesions were observed of which six were age-related. Controlling for this, the analyses showed that hepatic steatosis and renal cell infiltrations, glomerular sclerosis and tubular hyperplasia decreased over the investigated time period (all p<0.05). Similarly, hypertrophy of hepatic Ito cells, renal glomerular capillary wall thickening and interstitial fibrosis increased over the study period (all p<0.05). Regarding contaminant, concentrations of polybrominated diphenyl ethers in adipose tissue were negatively associated with hepatic mononuclear cell infiltrations (p=0.05) and a similar trend was found for Hg (p=0.09). Hexachlorobenzene was positively associated with portal cell infiltrations and hepatic lipid granulomas, while polychlorinated biphenyls were negatively associated with the prevalence of steatosis (both p<0.05) and a similar trend was found for hexachlorocyclohexanes (p=0.08). Mercury was positively correlated with the frequencies of hypertrophic Ito cells (p=0.002) and a similar trend was found for perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (p=0.07). In renal tissue, hexachlorocyclohexanes were positively associated with medullar hyaline casts (p=0.03) and a similar trend was found for cell infiltrations (p=0.08). There was a trend of trans-nonachlor being positively associated with glomerular sclerosis (p=0.06) while dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes were negatively associated with tubular hyperplasia (p=0.02). These results suggest that specific liver and renal lesions have decreased or increased over time and that long-range transported organohalogen contaminants and mercury may be among the co-factors responsible for these observations. These relationships are important to take into account when biomonitoring health and pollution in wildlife species such as polar bears. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The intercomparison of ozone measured from the SME and Nimbus-7 satellites on short and long time scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandra, S.; Mcpeters, R. D.; Srivastava, D. N.

1986-01-01

The spatial and temporal characteristics of ozone density measured from the SBUV (Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet) spectrometer on Nimbus-7 and the UV and the UV and the IR spectrometers on SME (Solar Mesosphere Explorer) are compared in the altitude region near 50 km where the three data sets overlap. Their temporal characteristics, when averaged over the same longitude range, are remarkably similar with respect to seasonal variations and short term fluctuations induced by transient planetary waves. The long term trends in the three data sets, however, differ significantly with each other. Over the three year period after 1982 ozone mixing ratio at 1 mb decreased by about 10 percent based on SEUV measurements but increased by 12 and 30 percent respectively based on SME-IR and SME-UV measurements. None of these estimates are consistent with the predicted decrease of about 2 percent based on solar UV flux and temperature changes during this period.

Multi-regional synthesis of temporal trends in biotic assemblages in streams and rivers of the continental United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Matthew P.; Brasher, Anne M.D.; Keenen, Jonathan G.

2013-01-01

Biotic assemblages in aquatic ecosystems are excellent integrators and indicators of changing environmental conditions within a watershed. Therefore, temporal changes in abiotic environmental variables often can be inferred from temporal changes in biotic assemblages. Algae, macroinvertebrate, and fish assemblage data were collected from 91 sampling sites in 4 geographic regions (northeastern/north-central, southeastern, south-central, and western), collectively encompassing the continental United States, from 1993 to 2009 as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program. This report uses a multivariate approach to synthesize temporal trends in biotic assemblages and correlations with relevant abiotic parameters as a function of biotic assemblage, geographic region, and land use. Of the three groups of biota, algal assemblages had temporal trends at the greatest percentage of sites. Of the regions, a greater percentage of sites in the northeastern/north-central and western regions had temporal trends in biotic assemblages. In terms of land use, a greater percentage of watersheds draining agricultural, urban, and undeveloped areas had significant temporal changes in biota, as compared to watersheds with mixed use. Correlations between biotic assemblages and abiotic variables indicate that, in general, macroinvertebrate assemblages correlated with water quality and fish assemblages correlated with physical habitat. Taken together, results indicate that there are regional differences in how individual biotic assemblages (algae, macroinvertebrates, and fish) respond to different abiotic drivers of change.

Temporal trends and patterns in antimicrobial resistant Gram-negative bacteria implicated in intensive care unit-acquired infections: a cohort-based surveillance study in Istanbul, Turkey.

PubMed

Durdu, Bulent; Kritsotakis, Evangelos I; Lee, Andrew C K; Torun, Perihan; Hakyemez, Ismail N; Gultepe, Bilge; Aslan, Turan

2018-05-08

This study assessed trends and patterns in antimicrobial resistant intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired infections caused by Gram-negative bacteria (GNB) in Istanbul, Turkey. Bacterial culture and antibiotic susceptibility data were collected for all GNB causing nosocomial infections in five adult ICUs of a large university hospital during 2012-2015. Multi-resistance patterns were categorised as multidrug (MDR), extensively-drug (XDR) and pandrug (PDR)-resistance. Patterns and trends were assessed using seasonal decomposition and regression analyses. Of 991 pathogenic GNB recorded, most frequent were Acinetobacter baumannii (35%), Klebsiella species (27%), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (18%), Escherichia coli (7%) and Enterobacter species (4%). The overall infection rate decreased by 41% from 18.4 to 10.9 cases per 1000 patient-days in 2012 compared to 2015 (p <0.001), mostly representing decreases in bloodstream infections and pneumonias by A. baumannii and P. aeruginosa. XDR proportion in A.baumannii increased from 52% in 2012 to 72% in 2015, but only one isolate was colistin-resistant. Multi-resistance patterns remained stable in Klebsiella, with overall XDR and possible PDR proportions of 14% and 2%, respectively. A back-to-susceptibility trend was noted for P. aeruginosa in which the non-MDR proportion increased from 53% in 2012 to 71% in 2015. 88% of E.coli and 40% of Enterobacter isolates were MDR, but none was XDR. Antimicrobial resistance patterns in pathogenic GNB continuously change over time and may not reflect single-agent resistance trends. The proportionate amount of antimicrobial-resistant GNB may persist despite overall decreasing infection rates. Timely regional surveillance data are thus imperative for optimal infection control. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Chemotherapy of Infection and Cancer. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nutrient loads from agricultural and forested areas in Finland from 1981 up to 2010-can the efficiency of undertaken water protection measures seen?

PubMed

Tattari, Sirkka; Koskiaho, Jari; Kosunen, Maiju; Lepistö, Ahti; Linjama, Jarmo; Puustinen, Markku

2017-03-01

Long-term data from a network of intensively monitored research catchments in Finland was analysed. We studied temporal (1981-2010) and spatial variability in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), from 1987 losses, both from agricultural and forestry land. Based on trend analysis, total nitrogen (TN) concentrations increased in two of the four agricultural sites and in most of the forested sites. In agricultural catchments, the total phosphorus (TP) trends were decreasing in two of the four catchments studied. Dissolved P (DRP) concentrations increased in two catchments and decreased in one. The increase in DRP concentration can be a result of reducing erosion by increased non-plough cultivation and direct sowing. In forested catchments, the TP trends in 1987-2011 were significantly decreasing in three of the six catchments, while DRP concentrations decreased significantly in all sites. At the same time, P fertilisation in Finnish forests has decreased significantly, thus contributing to these changes. The mean annual specific loss for agricultural land was on average 15.5 kg ha -1  year -1 for N and 1.1 kg ha -1  year -1 for P. In the national scale, total TN loading from agriculture varied between 34,000-37,000 t year -1 and total P loading 2400-2700 t year -1 . These new load estimates are of the same order than those reported earlier, emphasising the need for more efforts with wide-ranging and carefully targeted implementation of water protection measures.

Detecting trends in landscape pattern metrics over a 20-year period using a sampling-based monitoring programme

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffith, J.A.; Stehman, S.V.; Sohl, Terry L.; Loveland, Thomas R.

2003-01-01

Temporal trends in landscape pattern metrics describing texture, patch shape and patch size were evaluated in the US Middle Atlantic Coastal Plain Ecoregion. The landscape pattern metrics were calculated for a sample of land use/cover data obtained for four points in time from 1973-1992. The multiple sampling dates permit evaluation of trend, whereas availability of only two sampling dates allows only evaluation of change. Observed statistically significant trends in the landscape pattern metrics demonstrated that the sampling-based monitoring protocol was able to detect a trend toward a more fine-grained landscape in this ecoregion. This sampling and analysis protocol is being extended spatially to the remaining 83 ecoregions in the US and temporally to the year 2000 to provide a national and regional synthesis of the temporal and spatial dynamics of landscape pattern covering the period 1973-2000.

Serum Testosterone Kinetics After Brachytherapy for Clinically Localized Prostate Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taira, Al V.; Merrick, Gregory S., E-mail: gmerrick@urologicresearchinstitute.org; Galbreath, Robert W.

Purpose: To evaluate temporal changes in testosterone after prostate brachytherapy and investigate the potential impact of these changes on response to treatment. Methods and Materials: Between January 2008 and March 2009, 221 consecutive patients underwent Pd-103 brachytherapy without androgen deprivation for clinically localized prostate cancer. Prebrachytherapy prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and serum testosterone were obtained for each patient. Repeat levels were obtained 3 months after brachytherapy and at least every 6 months thereafter. Multiple clinical, treatment, and dosimetric parameters were evaluated to determine an association with temporal testosterone changes. In addition, analysis was conducted to determine if there was an associationmore » between testosterone changes and treatment outcomes or the occurrence of a PSA spike. Results: There was no significant difference in serum testosterone over time after implant (p = 0.57). 29% of men experienced an increase {>=}25%, 23% of men experienced a decrease {>=}25%, and the remaining 48% of men had no notable change in testosterone over time. There was no difference in testosterone trends between men who received external beam radiotherapy and those who did not (p = 0.12). On multivariate analysis, preimplant testosterone was the only variable that consistently predicted for changes in testosterone over time. Men with higher than average testosterone tended to experience drop in testosterone (p < 0.001), whereas men with average or below average baseline testosterone had no significant change. There was no association between men who experienced PSA spike and testosterone temporal trends (p = 0.50) nor between initial PSA response and testosterone trends (p = 0.21). Conclusion: Prostate brachytherapy does not appear to impact serum testosterone over time. Changes in serum testosterone do not appear to be associated with PSA spike phenomena nor with initial PSA response to treatment; therefore, PSA response does not seem related to temporal testosterone changes.« less

Temporal Trends in the Utilization of Noninvasive Diagnostic Tests for Coronary Artery Disease in Ontario Between 2008 and 2014: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Roifman, Idan; Wijeysundera, Harindra C; Austin, Peter C; Maclagan, Laura C; Rezai, Mohammad R; Wright, Graham A; Tu, Jack V

2017-02-01

The proliferation of cardiac diagnostic tests over the past few decades has received substantial attention from policymakers. However, contemporary population-based temporal trends of the utilization of noninvasive cardiac diagnostic tests for coronary artery disease are not known. Our objective was to examine the temporal trends in the utilization of coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI), exercise stress testing (GXT), and stress echocardiography between 2008 and 2014. We performed a population-based repeated cross-sectional study of the adult population of Ontario between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2014. Annual utilization rates of noninvasive cardiac diagnostic tests were computed. For each cardiac testing modality, a negative binomial regression model was used to assess temporal changes in test utilization. GXT and MPI collectively accounted for 88% of all cardiac noninvasive diagnostic tests throughout our study period. Age- and sex-standardized rates of GXT declined from 26.7/1000 adult population to 21.6/1000 adult population (mean annual reduction of 3.4%; P < 0.001). MPI rates declined from 21.1/1000 adult population to 19.5/1000 adult population (mean annual reduction of 1.3%; P < 0.001). Although utilization rates for both CCTA and stress echocardiography increased over time, the combined rate of all available tests decreased from 50.8/1000 adult population to 49.1/1000 adult population (mean annual reduction of 1.1%; P < 0.001). In conclusion, utilization rates for the most prevalent noninvasive cardiac diagnostic tests-GXT and MPI-declined over our study period. Furthermore, the overall test utilization rate also declined over time. We believe our findings are encouraging from a health policy perspective. Nonetheless, rising utilization rates for CCTA and stress echocardiography will need to be monitored in the future. Copyright © 2016 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Annual changes and seasonal variations of Cr in Jiaozhou Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Dongfang; Haixia, Li; Zhang, Longlei; Li, Jiangmin; Nan, Nan

2017-04-01

Many bays have been polluted by Cr due to the rapid increasing of industry, hence understanding the temporal change trends and seasonal patterns is essential to pollution control and environmental remediation. Jiaozhou Bay is a semi-closed bay located in Shandong Province, China. This paper analyzed the annual changes and seasonal variations of Cr in Jiaozhou Bay in 1979-1983. Results showed that for annual changes, Cr contents were showing decreasing trend. For seasonal variations, Cr contents were in order of spring > summer > autumn. In generally, the pollution level of Cr contents in the early stage of China’s Reform and Opening-up was still low. These results were meaningful as basic information for pollution control and environmental remediation in this Bay.

Cardiogenic shock in intensive care units: evolution of prevalence, patient profile, management and outcomes, 1997-2012.

PubMed

Puymirat, Etienne; Fagon, Jean Yves; Aegerter, Philippe; Diehl, Jean Luc; Monnier, Alexandra; Hauw-Berlemont, Caroline; Boissier, Florence; Chatellier, Gilles; Guidet, Bertrand; Danchin, Nicolas; Aissaoui, Nadia

2017-02-01

To address the paucity of data on the characteristics, outcome and temporal trends in mortality of cardiogenic shock (CS) patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) we examined key features, variations in mortality from CS, and predictors of death in ICU patients over the past 15 years. From the 1997-2012 database of the Collège des Utilisateurs de Bases de données en Réanimation (CUB-Réa) that prospectively collects data from ICUs in the greater Paris area, we determined temporal trends in the incidence of CS, patient outcomes [Crude and Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS)-II Standardized Mortality] and predictors of in-ICU mortality. Of the 316 905 ICU admissions, 19 416 (6.1%) exhibited CS, with incidence increasing from 4.1% to 7.7% (P < 0.001). Over time, the age of admitted patients decreased by 2.7 years [95% confidence interval (CI), -2.0 to -3.4] and SAPS-II increased by 5.8% (95% CI 4.8-6.8) from 58.7 ± 25.3 to 64.5 ± 23.3 (P < 0.001). Crude in-ICU mortality declined from 50% to 45% (-5.6%; 95% CI -7.7 to -3.5) as SAPS-II Standardized ICU mortality rates decreased from 56.5% to 44.2% (P < 0.001). A more recent time-period was an independent correlate of decreased mortality in multivariate analyses. The decrease in mortality rate was more marked in patients with decompensated heart failure, cardiac arrest, or acute myocardial infarction. Patients with CS represent a greater proportion of patients admitted to ICUs over the past 15 years, having become younger but more critically ill. Although their mortality has decreased, suggesting improved overall patient management, it remains particularly high, warranting further research specifically focused on this population. © 2016 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure © 2016 European Society of Cardiology.

Temporal trends in the systemic inflammatory response syndrome, sepsis, and medical coding of sepsis.

PubMed

Thomas, Benjamin S; Jafarzadeh, S Reza; Warren, David K; McCormick, Sandra; Fraser, Victoria J; Marschall, Jonas

2015-11-24

Recent reports using administrative claims data suggest the incidence of community- and hospital-onset sepsis is increasing. Whether this reflects changing epidemiology, more effective diagnostic methods, or changes in physician documentation and medical coding practices is unclear. We performed a temporal-trend study from 2008 to 2012 using administrative claims data and patient-level clinical data of adult patients admitted to Barnes-Jewish Hospital in St. Louis, Missouri. Temporal-trend and annual percent change were estimated using regression models with autoregressive integrated moving average errors. We analyzed 62,261 inpatient admissions during the 5-year study period. 'Any SIRS' (i.e., SIRS on a single calendar day during the hospitalization) and 'multi-day SIRS' (i.e., SIRS on 3 or more calendar days), which both use patient-level data, and medical coding for sepsis (i.e., ICD-9-CM discharge diagnosis codes 995.91, 995.92, or 785.52) were present in 35.3 %, 17.3 %, and 3.3 % of admissions, respectively. The incidence of admissions coded for sepsis increased 9.7 % (95 % CI: 6.1, 13.4) per year, while the patient data-defined events of 'any SIRS' decreased by 1.8 % (95 % CI: -3.2, -0.5) and 'multi-day SIRS' did not change significantly over the study period. Clinically-defined sepsis (defined as SIRS plus bacteremia) and severe sepsis (defined as SIRS plus hypotension and bacteremia) decreased at statistically significant rates of 5.7 % (95 % CI: -9.0, -2.4) and 8.6 % (95 % CI: -4.4, -12.6) annually. All-cause mortality, SIRS mortality, and SIRS and clinically-defined sepsis case fatality did not change significantly during the study period. Sepsis mortality, based on ICD-9-CM codes, however, increased by 8.8 % (95 % CI: 1.9, 16.2) annually. The incidence of sepsis, defined by ICD-9-CM codes, and sepsis mortality increased steadily without a concomitant increase in SIRS or clinically-defined sepsis. Our results highlight the need to develop strategies to integrate clinical patient-level data with administrative data to draw more accurate conclusions about the epidemiology of sepsis.

Statistical analysis of long-term monitoring data for persistent organic pollutants in the atmosphere at 20 monitoring stations broadly indicates declining concentrations.

PubMed

Kong, Deguo; MacLeod, Matthew; Hung, Hayley; Cousins, Ian T

2014-11-04

During recent decades concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the atmosphere have been monitored at multiple stations worldwide. We used three statistical methods to analyze a total of 748 time series of selected POPs in the atmosphere to determine if there are statistically significant reductions in levels of POPs that have had control actions enacted to restrict or eliminate manufacture, use and emissions. Significant decreasing trends were identified in 560 (75%) of the 748 time series collected from the Arctic, North America, and Europe, indicating that the atmospheric concentrations of these POPs are generally decreasing, consistent with the overall effectiveness of emission control actions. Statistically significant trends in synthetic time series could be reliably identified with the improved Mann-Kendall (iMK) test and the digital filtration (DF) technique in time series longer than 5 years. The temporal trends of new (or emerging) POPs in the atmosphere are often unclear because time series are too short. A statistical detrending method based on the iMK test was not able to identify abrupt changes in the rates of decline of atmospheric POP concentrations encoded into synthetic time series.

Trend analysis of selected water-quality constituents in the Verde River Basin, central Arizona

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baldys, S.

1990-01-01

Temporal trends of eight water quality constituents at six data collection sites in the Verde River basin in central Arizona were investigated using seasonal Kendall tau and ordinary least-squares regression methods of analysis. The constituents are dissolved solids, dissolved sulfate, dissolved arsenic, total phosphorus, pH, total nitrite plus nitrate-nitrogen, dissolved iron, and fecal coliform bacteria. Increasing trends with time in dissolved-solids concentrations of 7 to 8 mg/L/yr at Verde River near Camp Verde were found at significant level. An increasing trend in dissolved-sulfate concentrations of 3.59 mg/L/yr was also found at Verde River near Camp Verde, although at nonsignificant levels.more » Statistically significant decreasing trends with time in dissolved-solids and dissolved-sulfate concentrations were found at Verde River above Horseshoe Reservoir, which is downstream from Verde River near Camp Verde. Observed trends in the other constituents do not indicate the emergence of water quality problems in the Verde River basin. Analysis of the eight water quality constituents generally indicate nonvarying concentration levels after adjustment for seasonality and streamflow were made.« less

Comparison of temporal trends in VOCs as measured with PDB samplers and low-flow sampling methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harte, P.T.

2002-01-01

Analysis of temporal trends in tetrachloroethylene (PCE) concentration determined by two sample techniques showed that passive diffusion bag (pdb) samplers adequately sample the large variation in PCE concentrations at the site. The slopes of the temporal trends in concentrations were comparable between the two techniques, and the pdb sample concentration generally reflected the instantaneous concentration sampled by the low-flow technique. Thus, the pdb samplers provided an appropriate sampling technique for PCE at these wells. One or two wells did not make the case for widespread application of pdb samples at all sites. However, application of pdb samples in some circumstances was appropriate for evaluating temporal and spatial variations in VOC concentrations, thus, should be considered as a useful tool in hydrogeology.

Trend analysis of aerosol optical thickness and Ångström exponent derived from the global AERONET spectral observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, J.; von Hoyningen-Huene, W.; Kokhanovsky, A. A.; Vountas, M.; Burrows, J. P.

2012-06-01

Regular aerosol observations based on well-calibrated instruments have led to a better understanding of the aerosol radiative budget on Earth. In recent years, these instruments have played an important role in the determination of the increase of anthropogenic aerosols by means of long-term studies. Only few investigations regarding long-term trends of aerosol optical characteristics (e.g. aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and Ångström exponent (ÅE)) have been derived from ground-based observations. This paper aims to derive and discuss linear trends of AOT (440, 675, 870, and 1020 nm) and ÅE (440-870 nm) using AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) level 2.0 spectral observations. Additionally, temporal trends of coarse- and fine-mode dominant AOTs (CdAOT and FdAOT) have been estimated by applying an aerosol classification based on accurate ÅE and Ångström exponent difference (ÅED). In order to take into account the fact that cloud disturbance is having a significant influence on the trend analysis of aerosols, we introduce a weighted least squares regression depending on two weights: (1) monthly standard deviation (σt) and (2) number of observations per month (nt). Temporal increase of FdAOTs (440 nm) prevails over newly industrializing countries in East Asia (weighted trends; +6.23% yr-1 at Beijing) and active agricultural burning regions in South Africa (+1.89% yr-1 at Mongu). On the other hand, insignificant or negative trends for FdAOTs are detected over Western Europe (+0.25% yr-1 at Avignon and -2.29% yr-1 at Ispra) and North America (-0.52% yr-1 for GSFC and -0.01% yr-1 at MD_Science_Center). Over desert regions, both increase and decrease of CdAOTs (+3.37% yr-1 at Solar_Village and -1.18% yr-1 at Ouagadougou) are observed depending on meteorological conditions.

Trends in Disparity by Sex and Race/Ethnicity for the Leading Causes of Death in the United States-1999-2010.

PubMed

Chang, Man-Huei; Moonesinghe, Ramal; Athar, Heba M; Truman, Benedict I

2016-01-01

Temporal trends in disparities in the leading causes of death within and between US demographic subgroups indicate the need for and success of interventions to prevent premature death in vulnerable populations. Studies that report recent trends are limited and outdated. To describe temporal trends in disparities in death rates by sex and race/ethnicity for the 10 leading causes of death in the United States during 1999-2010. We used underlying cause of death data and population estimates from the National Vital Statistics System to calculate age-adjusted death rates for the 10 leading causes of death during 1999-2010. We measured absolute and relative disparities by sex and race/ethnicity for each cause and year of death; we used weighted linear regression to test for significance of trends over time. Of the 10 leading causes of death, age-adjusted death rates by sex and race/ethnicity declined during 1999-2010 for 6 causes and increased for 4 causes. But sex and racial/ethnic disparities between groups persisted for each year and cause of death. In the US population, the decreasing trend during 1999-2010 was greatest for cerebrovascular disease (-36.5%) and the increasing trend was greatest for Alzheimer disease (52.4%). For each sex and year, the disparity in death rates between Asian/Pacific Islanders (API) and other groups varied significantly by cause of death. In 2010, the API-non-Hispanic black disparity was largest for heart disease, malignant neoplasms, cerebrovascular diseases, and nephritis; the API-American Indian/Alaska Native disparity was largest for unintentional injury, diabetes mellitus, influenza and pneumonia, and suicide; and the API-non-Hispanic white disparity was largest for chronic lower respiratory diseases and Alzheimer disease. Public health practitioners can use these findings to improve policies and practices and to evaluate progress in eliminating disparities and their social determinants in vulnerable populations.

Spatial and temporal trends of mercury and other metals in landlocked char from lakes in the Canadian Arctic archipelago.

PubMed

Muir, Derek; Wang, Xiaowa; Bright, Doug; Lockhart, Lyle; Köck, Günter

2005-12-01

Spatial and temporal trends of mercury (Hg) and 22 other elements were examined in landlocked Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) from six lakes in the Canadian Arctic (Char, Resolute and North Lakes, and Amituk Lake on Cornwallis Island, Sapphire Lake on Devon Island and Boomerang Lake on Somerset Island). The objectives of the study were to compare recent concentrations of Hg and other metals in char with older data from Amituk, Resolute and Char Lakes, in order to examine temporal trends as well as to investigate factors influencing spatial trends in contaminant levels such as lake characteristics, trophic position, size and age of the fish. Geometric mean Hg concentrations in dorsal muscle ranged from 0.147 microg/g wet weight (ww) in Resolute Lake to 1.52 microg/g ww in Amituk Lake for samples collected over the period 1999-2003. Char from Amituk Lake also had significantly higher selenium (Se). Mercury in char from Resolute Lake was strongly correlated with fish length, weight, and age, as well as with thallium, lead and Se. In 5 of 6 lakes, Hg concentrations were correlated with stable nitrogen isotope ratios (delta15N) and larger char were feeding at a higher trophic level presumably due to feeding on smaller char. Weight adjusted mean Hg concentrations in char from Amituk Lake, and unadjusted geometric means in Char Lake and Resolute Lakes, did not show any statistically significant increase from the early 1990s to 2003. However, small sample sizes from 1999-2003 for fish <1000 g limited the power of this comparison in Char and Amituk Lakes. In Resolute Lake char, manganese, strontium and zinc showed consistent decreases from 1997 or 1999 to 2003 while nickel generally increased over the 6 year period. Differences in char trophic level inferred from delta15N values best explained the higher concentrations of Hg in Amituk Lake compared to the other lakes.

Central nervous system tumours among adolescents and young adults (15-39 years) in Southern and Eastern Europe: Registration improvements reveal higher incidence rates compared to the US.

PubMed

Georgakis, Marios K; Panagopoulou, Paraskevi; Papathoma, Paraskevi; Tragiannidis, Athanasios; Ryzhov, Anton; Zivkovic-Perisic, Snezana; Eser, Sultan; Taraszkiewicz, Łukasz; Sekerija, Mario; Žagar, Tina; Antunes, Luis; Zborovskaya, Anna; Bastos, Joana; Florea, Margareta; Coza, Daniela; Demetriou, Anna; Agius, Domenic; Strahinja, Rajko M; Sfakianos, Georgios; Nikas, Ioannis; Kosmidis, Sofia; Razis, Evangelia; Pourtsidis, Apostolos; Kantzanou, Maria; Dessypris, Nick; Petridou, Eleni Th

2017-11-01

To present incidence of central nervous system (CNS) tumours among adolescents and young adults (AYAs; 15-39 years) derived from registries of Southern and Eastern Europe (SEE) in comparison to the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER), US and explore changes due to etiological parameters or registration improvement via evaluating time trends. Diagnoses of 11,438 incident malignant CNS tumours in AYAs (1990-2014) were retrieved from 14 collaborating SEE cancer registries and 13,573 from the publicly available SEER database (1990-2012). Age-adjusted incidence rates (AIRs) were calculated; Poisson and joinpoint regression analyses were performed for temporal trends. The overall AIR of malignant CNS tumours among AYAs was higher in SEE (28.1/million) compared to SEER (24.7/million). Astrocytomas comprised almost half of the cases in both regions, albeit the higher proportion of unspecified cases in SEE registries (30% versus 2.5% in SEER). Similar were the age and gender distributions across SEE and SEER with a male-to-female ratio of 1.3 and an overall increase of incidence by age. Increasing temporal trends in incidence were documented in four SEE registries (Greater Poland, Portugal North, Turkey-Izmir and Ukraine) versus an annual decrease in Croatia (-2.5%) and a rather stable rate in SEER (-0.3%). This first report on descriptive epidemiology of AYAs malignant CNS tumours in the SEE area shows higher incidence rates as compared to the United States of America and variable temporal trends that may be linked to registration improvements. Hence, it emphasises the need for optimisation of cancer registration processes, as to enable the in-depth evaluation of the observed patterns by disease subtype. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal mapping of Madagascar's Malaria Indicator Survey results to assess Plasmodium falciparum endemicity trends between 2011 and 2016.

PubMed

Kang, Su Yun; Battle, Katherine E; Gibson, Harry S; Ratsimbasoa, Arsène; Randrianarivelojosia, Milijaona; Ramboarina, Stéphanie; Zimmerman, Peter A; Weiss, Daniel J; Cameron, Ewan; Gething, Peter W; Howes, Rosalind E

2018-05-23

Reliable measures of disease burden over time are necessary to evaluate the impact of interventions and assess sub-national trends in the distribution of infection. Three Malaria Indicator Surveys (MISs) have been conducted in Madagascar since 2011. They provide a valuable resource to assess changes in burden that is complementary to the country's routine case reporting system. A Bayesian geostatistical spatio-temporal model was developed in an integrated nested Laplace approximation framework to map the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection among children from 6 to 59 months in age across Madagascar for 2011, 2013 and 2016 based on the MIS datasets. The model was informed by a suite of environmental and socio-demographic covariates known to influence infection prevalence. Spatio-temporal trends were quantified across the country. Despite a relatively small decrease between 2013 and 2016, the prevalence of malaria infection has increased substantially in all areas of Madagascar since 2011. In 2011, almost half (42.3%) of the country's population lived in areas of very low malaria risk (<1% parasite prevalence), but by 2016, this had dropped to only 26.7% of the population. Meanwhile, the population in high transmission areas (prevalence >20%) increased from only 2.2% in 2011 to 9.2% in 2016. A comparison of the model-based estimates with the raw MIS results indicates there was an underestimation of the situation in 2016, since the raw figures likely associated with survey timings were delayed until after the peak transmission season. Malaria remains an important health problem in Madagascar. The monthly and annual prevalence maps developed here provide a way to evaluate the magnitude of change over time, taking into account variability in survey input data. These methods can contribute to monitoring sub-national trends of malaria prevalence in Madagascar as the country aims for geographically progressive elimination.

Oxygen declines and the shoaling of the hypoxic boundary in the California Current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bograd, Steven J.; Castro, Carmen G.; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Palacios, Daniel M.; Bailey, Helen; Gilly, William; Chavez, Francisco P.

2008-06-01

We use hydrographic data from the California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations program to explore the spatial and temporal variability of dissolved oxygen (DO) in the southern California Current System (CCS) over the period 1984-2006. Large declines in DO (up to 2.1 μmol/kg/y) have been observed throughout the domain, with the largest relative DO declines occurring below the thermocline (mean decrease of 21% at 300 m). Linear trends were significant (p < 0.05) at the majority of stations down to 500 m. The hypoxic boundary (~60 μmol/kg) has shoaled by up to 90 m within portions of the southern CCS. The observed trends are consistent with advection of low-DO waters into the region, as well as decreased vertical oxygen transport following near-surface warming and increased stratification. Expansion of the oxygen minimum layer could lead to cascading effects on benthic and pelagic ecosystems, including habitat compression and community reorganization.

Trend and change point analyses of annual precipitation in the Souss-Massa Region in Morocco during 1932-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abahous, H.; Ronchail, J.; Sifeddine, A.; Kenny, L.; Bouchaou, L.

2017-11-01

In the context of an arid area such as Souss Massa Region, the availability of time series analysis of observed local data is vital to better characterize the regional rainfall configuration. In this paper, dataset of monthly precipitation collected from different local meteorological stations during 1932-2010, are quality controlled and analyzed to detect trend and change points. The temporal distribution of outliers shows an annual cycle and a decrease of their number since the 1980s. The results of the standard normal homogeneity test, penalized maximal t test, and Mann-Whitney-Pettit test show that 42% of the series are homogeneous. The analysis of annual precipitation in the region of Souss Massa during 1932-2010 shows wet conditions with a maximum between 1963 and 1965 followed by a decrease since 1973. The latter is identified as a statistically significant regional change point in Western High Atlas and Anti Atlas Mountains highlighting a decline in long-term average precipitation.

Current levels and trends of selected EU Water Framework Directive priority substances in freshwater fish from the German environmental specimen bank.

PubMed

Fliedner, Annette; Lohmann, Nina; Rüdel, Heinz; Teubner, Diana; Wellmitz, Jörg; Koschorreck, Jan

2016-09-01

Under the German environmental specimen bank programme bream (Abramis brama) were sampled in six German rivers and analysed for the priority hazardous substances dicofol, hexabromocyclododecane (HBCDD), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), hexachlorobutadiene (HCBD), heptachlor + heptachlor epoxide (HC + HCE), polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDEs), polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and -furans and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCDD/Fs + dl-PCBs), and perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS). The aim was to assess compliance with the EU Water Framework Directive environmental quality standards for biota (EQSBiota) for the year 2013, and to analyse temporal trends for those substances that are of special concern. General compliance was observed for dicofol, HBCDD and HCBD whereas PBDEs exceeded the EQSBiota at all sites. For all other substances compliance in 2013 varied between locations. No assessment was possible for HC + HCE at some sites where the analytical sensitivity was not sufficient to cover the EQSBiota. Trend analysis showed decreasing linear trends for HCB and PFOS at most sampling sites between 1995 and 2014 indicating that the emission reduction measures are effective. Mostly decreasing trends or constant levels were also observed for PCDD/Fs and dl-PCBs. In contrast, increasing trends were detected for PBDEs and HBCDD which were especially pronounced at one Saar site located downstream of the industries and conurbation of Saarbrücken and Völklingen. This finding points to new sources of emissions which should be followed in the coming years. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Temporal changes in aquatic-invertebrate and fish assemblages in streams of the north-central and northeastern U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennen, Jonathan G.; Sullivan, Daniel J.; May, Jason T.; Bell, Amanda H.; Beaulieu, Karen M.; Rice, Donald E.

2012-01-01

Many management agencies seek to evaluate temporal changes in aquatic assemblages at monitoring sites, but few have sites with ecological time series that are long enough for this purpose. Trends in aquatic-invertebrate and fish assemblage composition were assessed at 27 long-term monitoring sites in the north-central and northeastern United States. Temporal changes were identified using serial trend analysis. Sites with significant serial trends were further evaluated by relating explanatory environmental variables (e.g., streamflow, habitat, and water chemistry) to changes in assemblage composition. Significant trends were found at 19 of 27 study sites; however, differences in the sensitivity of the aquatic fauna to environmental stressors were identified. For example, significant trends in fish assemblages were found at more sites (15 of 27) than for aquatic-invertebrate assemblages (10 of 27 sites). In addition, trends in the invertebrate assemblage were most often explained by changes in streamflow processes (e.g., duration and magnitude of low- and high-flows, streamflow variability, and annual rates of change), whereas trends in the fish assemblage were more related to changes in water chemistry. Results illustrate the value of long-term monitoring for the purpose of assessing temporal trends in aquatic assemblages. The ability to detect trends in assemblage composition and to attribute these changes to environmental factors is necessary to understand mechanistic pathways and to further our understanding of how incremental anthropogenic alterations modify aquatic assemblages over time. Finally, this study's approach to trends analysis can be used to better inform the design of monitoring programs as well as support the ongoing management needs of stakeholders, water-resource agencies, and policy makers.

Spatial analysis of the annual and seasonal aridity trends in Extremadura, southwestern Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moral, Francisco J.; Paniagua, Luis L.; Rebollo, Francisco J.; García-Martín, Abelardo

2017-11-01

The knowledge of drought (or wetness) conditions is necessary not only for a rational use of water resources but also for explaining landscape and ecology characteristics. An increase in aridity in many areas of the world is expected because of climate change (global warming). With the aim of analysing annual and seasonal aridity trends in Extremadura, southwestern Spain, climate data from 81 locations within the 1951-2010 period were used. After computing the De Martonne aridity index at each location, a geographic information system (GIS) and multivariate geostatistics (regression kriging) were utilised to map this index throughout the region. Later, temporal trends were analysed using the Mann-Kendall test, and the Sen's estimator was utilised to estimate the magnitude of trends. Maps of aridity trends were generated by ordinary kriging algorithm, providing a visualisation of detected annual and seasonal tendencies. An increase in aridity, as the De Martonne aridity index decreased, was apparent during the study period, mainly in the more humid locations of the north of the region. An increase of the seasonal De Martonne aridity index was also found, but it was only statistically significant in some locations in spring and summer, with the highest decreasing rate in the north of Extremadura. Change year detection was achieved using cumulative sum graphs, obtaining that firstly the change point occurred in spring, in the mid-1970s, later in the annual period in the late 1970s and finally in summer at the end of the 1980s.

Spatiotemporal variations in precipitation across the Chinese Mongolian plateau over the past half century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Ruizhong; Li, Fengling; Wang, Xixi; Liu, Tingxi; Du, Dandan; Bai, Yong

2017-09-01

Precipitation, as affected by climate change, controls the growth of steppe grasses and grassland degradation/desertification in semiarid/arid regions, including the Chinese Mongolian plateau. This study examined the spatial variability and temporal trends in precipitation across the plateau in terms of four indexes: total precipitation (P), number of rainy days (Wd), number of precipitation events (N), and average precipitation intensity (Imean). Although seldom published in the literature, this information is vital for efforts to develop adaptive measures to sustain this vulnerable pasture economy. Seven hundred time series were formulated by preprocessing the data on daily precipitation over the period 1960 to 2012 at 25 weather stations scattered across the plateau. The results indicated that although the plateau was becoming drier overall, the intensity of storm events increased markedly, as indicated by decreasing trends for P, Wd and N but an increasing trend for Imean. On average, P decreased by 0.65 mm yr- 1 over the study period, while Imean increased by 0.2 mm d- 1 yr- 1. Across the plateau, the western part was becoming wetter, while the central-eastern part was becoming drier. This spatial discrepancy in the precipitation trends was particularly obvious in the winter dry season, with Imean tending to increase more rapidly in the central-eastern than western part, especially in the spring dry season. It is expected that these trends will continue, thus further challenging the already vulnerable eco-environment of the plateau.

Analysis of European ozone trends in the period 1995-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Yingying; Pozzer, Andrea; Ojha, Narendra; Lin, Jintai; Lelieveld, Jos

2018-04-01

Surface-based measurements from the EMEP and Airbase networks are used to estimate the changes in surface ozone levels during the 1995-2014 period over Europe. We find significant ozone enhancements (0.20-0.59 µg m-3 yr-1 for the annual means; P-value < 0.01 according to an F-test) over the European suburban and urban stations during 1995-2012 based on the Airbase sites. For European background ozone observed at EMEP sites, it is shown that a significantly decreasing trend in the 95th percentile ozone concentrations has occurred, especially at noon (0.9 µg m-3 yr-1; P-value < 0.01), while the 5th percentile ozone concentrations continued to increase with a trend of 0.3 µg m-3 yr-1 (P-value < 0.01) during the study period. With the help of numerical simulations performed with the global chemistry-climate model EMAC, the importance of anthropogenic emissions changes in determining these changes over background sites are investigated. The EMAC model is found to successfully capture the observed temporal variability in mean ozone concentrations, as well as the contrast in the trends of 95th and 5th percentile ozone over Europe. Sensitivity simulations and statistical analysis show that a decrease in European anthropogenic emissions had contrasting effects on surface ozone trends between the 95th and 5th percentile levels and that background ozone levels have been influenced by hemispheric transport, while climate variability generally regulated the inter-annual variations of surface ozone in Europe.

Identifying potential effects of climate change on the development of water resources in Pinios River Basin, Central Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arampatzis, G.; Panagopoulos, A.; Pisinaras, V.; Tziritis, E.; Wendland, F.

2018-05-01

The aim of the present study is to assess the future spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and temperature, and relate the corresponding change to water resources' quantitative status in Pinios River Basin (PRB), Thessaly, Greece. For this purpose, data from four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the periods 2021-2100 driven by several General Circulation Models (GCMs) were collected and bias-correction was performed based on linear scaling method. The bias-correction was made based on monthly precipitation and temperature data collected for the period 1981-2000 from 57 meteorological stations in total. The results indicate a general trend according to which precipitation is decreasing whilst temperature is increasing to an extent that varies depending on each particular RCM-GCM output. On the average, annual precipitation change for the period 2021-2100 was about - 80 mm, ranging between - 149 and + 35 mm, while the corresponding change for temperature was 2.81 °C, ranging between 1.48 and 3.72 °C. The investigation of potential impacts to the water resources demonstrates that water availability is expected to be significantly decreased in the already water-stressed PRB. The water stresses identified are related to the potential decreasing trend in groundwater recharge and the increasing trend in irrigation demand, which constitutes the major water consumer in PRB.

Persistence of space radiation induced cytogenetic damage in the blood lymphocytes of astronauts.

PubMed

George, K; Chappell, L J; Cucinotta, F A

2010-08-14

Cytogenetic damage was assessed in blood lymphocytes from 16 astronauts before and after they participated in long-duration space missions of 3 months or more. The frequency of chromosome damage was measured by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) chromosome painting before flight and at various intervals from a few days to many months after return from the mission. For all individuals, the frequency of chromosome exchanges measured within a month of return from space was higher than their preflight yield. However, some individuals showed a temporal decline in chromosome damage with time after flight. Statistical analysis using combined data for all astronauts indicated a significant overall decreasing trend in total chromosome exchanges with time after flight, although this trend was not seen for all astronauts and the yield of chromosome damage in some individuals actually increased with time after flight. The decreasing trend in total exchanges was slightly more significant when statistical analysis was restricted to data collected more than 220 days after return from flight. When analysis was restricted to data collected within 220 days of return from the mission there was no relationship between total exchanges and time. Translocation yields varied more between astronauts and there was only a slight non-significant decrease with time after flight that was similar for both later and earlier sampling times. Copyright (c) 2010. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Stature and robusticity during the agricultural transition: evidence from the bioarchaeological record.

PubMed

Mummert, Amanda; Esche, Emily; Robinson, Joshua; Armelagos, George J

2011-07-01

The population explosion that followed the Neolithic revolution was initially explained by improved health experiences for agriculturalists. However, empirical studies of societies shifting subsistence from foraging to primary food production have found evidence for deteriorating health from an increase in infectious and dental disease and a rise in nutritional deficiencies. In Paleopathology at the Origins of Agriculture (Cohen and Armelagos, 1984), this trend towards declining health was observed for 19 of 21 societies undergoing the agricultural transformation. The counterintuitive increase in nutritional diseases resulted from seasonal hunger, reliance on single crops deficient in essential nutrients, crop blights, social inequalities, and trade. In this study, we examined the evidence of stature reduction in studies since 1984 to evaluate if the trend towards decreased health after agricultural transitions remains. The trend towards a decrease in adult height and a general reduction of overall health during times of subsistence change remains valid, with the majority of studies finding stature to decline as the reliance on agriculture increased. The impact of agriculture, accompanied by increasing population density and a rise in infectious disease, was observed to decrease stature in populations from across the entire globe and regardless of the temporal period during which agriculture was adopted, including Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Asia, South America, and North America. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal analysis of annual rainfall in Crete, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varouchakis, Emmanouil A.; Corzo, Gerald A.; Karatzas, George P.; Kotsopoulou, Anastasia

2018-03-01

Analysis of rainfall data from the island of Crete, Greece was performed to identify key hydrological years and return periods as well as to analyze the inter-annual behavior of the rainfall variability during the period 1981-2014. The rainfall spatial distribution was also examined in detail to identify vulnerable areas of the island. Data analysis using statistical tools and spectral analysis were applied to investigate and interpret the temporal course of the available rainfall data set. In addition, spatial analysis techniques were applied and compared to determine the rainfall spatial distribution on the island of Crete. The analysis presented that in contrast to Regional Climate Model estimations, rainfall rates have not decreased, while return periods vary depending on seasonality and geographic location. A small but statistical significant increasing trend was detected in the inter-annual rainfall variations as well as a significant rainfall cycle almost every 8 years. In addition, statistically significant correlation of the island's rainfall variability with the North Atlantic Oscillation is identified for the examined period. On the other hand, regression kriging method combining surface elevation as secondary information improved the estimation of the annual rainfall spatial variability on the island of Crete by 70% compared to ordinary kriging. The rainfall spatial and temporal trends on the island of Crete have variable characteristics that depend on the geographical area and on the hydrological period.

Concentrations of organochlorine pesticides in pooled human serum by age and gender.

PubMed

Thomas, Aleysha; Toms, Leisa-Maree Leontjew; Harden, Fiona A; Hobson, Peter; White, Nicole M; Mengersen, Kerrie L; Mueller, Jochen F

2017-04-01

Organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) have been used for many decades in Australia with cessation of selected persistent and bioaccumulative OCPs ranging from the 1970s to as recently as 2007. The specific aims of this study were to use samples representative of an Australian population to assess age and gender differences in the concentration of OCPs in human blood sera and to investigate temporal trends in these chemicals. Serum was collected from de-identified, surplus pathology samples over five time periods (2002/03, 2006/07, 2008/09, 2010/11 and 2012/13), with 183 serum pools made from 12,175 individual samples; 26 pools in 2002/03, 85 pools in 2006/07 and 24 pools each in 2008/09, 2010/11 and 2012/13. Samples were analyzed for hexachlorobenzene (HCB), β-hexachlorocyclohexane (β-HCH), γ -hexachlorocyclohexane (lindane) (γ-HCH), oxy-chlordane, trans-nonachlor, p,p'-DDE, o,p'-DDT, p,p'-DDT and Mirex. Stratification criteria included gender and age (0-4; 5-15; 16-30; 31-45; 46-60; and >60 years) with age additionally stratified by adults >16 years and children 0-4 and 5-15 years. All pools from all collection periods had detectable concentrations of OCPs with a detection frequency of >60% for HCB, β-HCH, trans-nonachlor, p,p'-DDT and p,p'-DDE. The overall OCP concentrations increased with age with the highest concentrations in the >60 years groups. Females did not have higher mean OCP concentrations than males except for HCB concentrations (p=0.0006). Temporal trends showed overall decreasing serum concentrations by collection period with the exception of an increase in OCP concentrations between 2006/07 and 2008/09. Excluding this data point, HCB decreased from year to year by 7-76%; β-HCH concentrations decreased by 14 - 38%; trans-nonachlor concentrations decreased by 10 - 65%; p,p'-DDE concentrations decreased by 6 - 52%; and p,p'-DDT concentrations decreased by 7 - 30%. The results indicate that OCP concentrations have decreased over time as is to be expected following the phase out of these chemicals in Australia. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Changes in trait brainwave power and coherence, state and trait anxiety after three-month transcendental meditation (TM) practice.

PubMed

Tomljenović, Helena; Begić, Dražen; Maštrović, Zora

2016-03-01

The amount of studies showing different benefits of practicing meditation is growing. EEG brainwave patterns objectively reflect both the cognitive processes and objects of meditation. This study aimed to examine the effects of transcendental meditation (TM) practice on baseline EEG brainwave patterns (outside of meditation) and to examine weather TM reduces state and trait anxiety. Standard EEG recordings were conducted on volunteer participants (N=12), all students or younger employed people, before and after a three-month meditation training. Artifact-free 100-second epochs were selected and analyzed by Fast Fourier Transformation (FFT) analysis. Endlers Multidimensional Anxiety Scales (EMAS) were used to assess anxiety levels. Power (μV(2)) and coherence levels were compared in the alpha, beta, theta and delta frequency band. Changes in EEG patterns after meditation practice were found mostly in the theta band. An interaction effect was found on the left hemisphere (p<0.10). Theta power decreased on the left, but not on the right hemisphere. Increased theta coherence was found overall and in the central, temporal and occipital areas (p<0.10). Decrease in alpha power was found on channels T3 (p<0.10), O1 (p<0.05) and O2 (p<0.10). An interaction effect was found in the delta frequency band (p<0.06), too. A trend for power decreasing was found on the left, and a trend for power increasing on the right hemisphere. Also, power decreased on channel O1 (p<0.10). In the beta frequency band, a decrease was found on channel O2 (p<0.10). Trait anxiety did not differ, but a decrease in state anxiety and cognitive worry was found (p<0.05). Obtained results confirm the effects of TM on some baseline EEG brainwave patterns and state anxiety, suggesting that the left hemisphere is more sensitive to meditation practice. Most of the changes were found in the occipital and temporal areas, less in the central and frontal areas. State anxiety decreased after TM practice. Findings suggest TM practice could be helpful in treating different kinds of disorders, especially anxiety disorders.

Temporal trends in critical events complicating HIV infection: 1999-2010 multicentre cohort study in France.

PubMed

Barbier, François; Roux, Antoine; Canet, Emmanuel; Martel-Samb, Patricia; Aegerter, Philippe; Wolff, Michel; Guidet, Bertrand; Azoulay, Elie

2014-12-01

Multicentre data are limited to appraise the management and prognosis of critically ill human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients. We sought to describe temporal trends in demographic and clinical characteristics, indications for intensive care and outcome in this patient population. We conducted a cohort study of unselected HIV-infected patients admitted between 1999 and 2010 to 34 French ICUs contributing to the CUB-Réa prospective database. We included 6,373 consecutive patients. Over the 12-year period, increases occurred in median age (39 years in 1999-2001; 47 years in 2008-2010, p < 0.0001) and prevalence of comorbidities (notably malignancies, from 6.7 to 16.4%, p < 0.0001). Admissions for respiratory failure (39.8% overall), shock (8.1%) and coma (22.7%) decreased (p < 0.0001), while those for sepsis (19.3%) remained stable. The main final diagnoses were bacterial sepsis (24.6%) and non-bacterial acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS)-defining diseases (steady decline from 26.0 to 17.5%, p < 0.0001). Patients increasingly received mechanical ventilation (from 42.9 to 54.0%) and renal replacement therapy (from 9.6 to 16.8%) (p < 0.0001), whereas vasopressor use remained stable (27.4%). ICU readmissions increased after 2004 (p < 0.0001). ICU and hospital mortality (17.6 and 26.9%, respectively) dropped markedly in the most severely ill patients requiring multiple life-sustaining therapies. Malignancies and chronic liver disease were heavily associated with hospital mortality by multivariate analysis, while the most common AIDS-defining complications (Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia, cerebral toxoplasmosis and tuberculosis) had no independent impact. Progressive ageing, increasing prevalence of comorbidities (mainly malignancies), a steady decline in AIDS-related illnesses and improved benefits from life-sustaining therapies were the main temporal trends in HIV-infected patients requiring ICU admission.

Global patterns and trends in stomach cancer incidence: Age, period and birth cohort analysis.

PubMed

Luo, Ganfeng; Zhang, Yanting; Guo, Pi; Wang, Li; Huang, Yuanwei; Li, Ke

2017-10-01

The cases of stomach cancer (SC) incidence are increasing per year and the SC burden has remained very high in some countries. We aimed to evaluate the global geographical variation in SC incidence and temporal trends from 1978 to 2007, with an emphasis on the effect of birth cohort. Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort model were applied. From 2003 to 2007, male rate were 1.5- to 3-fold higher than female in all countries. Rates were highest in Eastern Asian and South American countries. Except for Uganda, all countries showed favorable trends. Pronounced cohort-specific increases in risk for recent birth cohorts were seen in Brazil, Colombia, Iceland, New Zealand, Norway, Uganda and US white people for males and in Australia, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Ecuador, Iceland, India, Malta, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Uganda, US black and white people for females. The cohort-specific ratio for male significantly decreased in Japan, Malta and Spain for cohorts born since 1950 and in Austria, China, Croatia, Ecuador, Russia, Switzerland and Thailand for cohorts born since 1960 and for female in Japan for cohorts born since 1950 and in Canada, China, Croatia, Latvia, Russia and Thailand for cohorts born since 1960. Disparities in incidence and carcinogenic risk persist worldwide. The favorable trends may be due to changes in environmental exposure and lifestyle, including decreased Helicobacter pylori prevalence, increased intake of fresh fruits and vegetables, the availability of refrigeration and decreased intake of salted and preserved food and smoking prevalence. © 2017 UICC.

Trends in alcohol and tobacco use among Brazilian students: 1989 to 2010

PubMed Central

Sanchez, Zila M; Prado, Mariangela Cainelli Oliveira; Sanudo, Adriana; Carlini, Elisaldo A; Nappo, Solange A; Martins, Silvia S

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE To analyze temporal trends of the prevalence of alcohol and tobacco use among Brazilian students. METHODS We analyzed data published between 1989 and 2010 from five epidemiological surveys on students from the 6th to the 12th grade of public schools from the ten largest state capitals of Brazil. The total sample consisted of 104,104 students and data were collected in classrooms. The same collection tool – a World Health Organization self-reporting questionnaire – and sampling and weighting procedures were used in the five surveys. The Chi-square test for trend was used to compare the prevalence from different years. RESULTS The prevalence of alcohol and tobacco use varied among the years and cities studied. Alcohol consumption decreased in the 10 state capitals (p < 0.001) throughout 21 years. Tobacco use also decreased significantly in eight cities (p < 0.001). The highest prevalence of alcohol use was found in the Southeast region in 1993 (72.8%, in Belo Horizonte) and the lowest one in Belem (30.6%) in 2010. The highest past-year prevalence of tobacco use was found in the South region in 1997 (28.0%, in Curitiba) and the lowest one in the Southeast in 2010 (7.8%, in Sao Paulo). CONCLUSIONS The decreasing trend in the prevalence of tobacco and alcohol use among students detected all over the Country can be related to the successful and comprehensive Brazilian antitobacco and antialcohol policies. Despite these results, the past-year prevalence of alcohol consumption in the past year remained high in all Brazilian regions. PMID:26465662

Trends in Alcohol Use among Adolescents from 2000 to 2011: The Role of Socioeconomic Status and Depression.

PubMed

Torikka, Antti; Kaltiala-Heino, Riittakerttu; Luukkaala, Tiina; Rimpelä, Arja

2017-01-01

To assess temporal trends of adolescent alcohol use in Finland from 2000 to 2011, according to socio-economic status and depression. Classroom self-administered questionnaires concerning health, health behaviours and school experiences were administered biennially from 2000-2001 to 2010-2011 to nationwide samples of 14- to 16-year-olds (n = 618,084). Alcohol use was measured as the frequencies of drinking and drunkenness. Socioeconomic status was measured using parental education and unemployment. Depression was measured using a Finnish modification of the Beck Depression Inventory. Cross-tabulations and a logistic regression analysis were applied. Over the study period, rates of frequent drinking and frequent drunkenness decreased among both boys and girls. Low levels of parental education and unemployment as well as adolescent depression increased the likelihoods of frequent drinking and drunkenness. Unlike the general decreasing trend observed for alcohol use, the likelihoods of frequent drinking and drunkenness increased among adolescents who were depressed and had unemployed parents with low levels of education. The prevalence of frequent drunkenness was 75.8% among the boys in this group during 2008-2011, whereas the corresponding prevalence was 2.3% for boys without depression and with highly educated, employed parents. The corresponding figures for girls were 41.7% and 1.4%, respectively. The overall decreasing trend in frequent alcohol use was not observed among socioeconomically deprived adolescents with depression. Thus, alcohol prevention programmes should treat these youth as special targets. © The Author 2016. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Temporal and spatial variations in sand and dust storm events in East Asia from 2007 to 2016: Relationships with surface conditions and climate change.

PubMed

An, Linchang; Che, Huizheng; Xue, Min; Zhang, Tianhang; Wang, Hong; Wang, Yaqiang; Zhou, Chunhong; Zhao, Hujia; Gui, Ke; Zheng, Yu; Sun, Tianze; Liang, Yuanxin; Sun, Enwei; Zhang, Hengde; Zhang, Xiaoye

2018-08-15

We analyzed the frequency and intensity of sand and dust storms (SDSs) in East Asia from 2007 to 2016 using observational data from ground stations, numerical modeling, and vegetation indices obtained from both satellite and reanalysis data. The relationships of SDSs with surface conditions and the synoptic circulation pattern were also analyzed. The statistical analyses demonstrated that the number and intensity of SDS events recorded in spring during 2007 to 2016 showed a decreasing trend. The total number of spring SDSs decreased from at least ten events per year before 2011 to less than ten events per year after 2011. The overall average annual variation of the surface dust concentration in the main dust source regions decreased 33.24μg/m 3 (-1.75%) annually. The variation in the temperatures near and below the ground surface and the amount of precipitation and soil moisture all favored an improvement in vegetation coverage, which reduced the intensity and frequency of SDSs. The strong winds accompanying the influx of cold air from high latitudes showed a decreasing trend, leading to a decrease in the number of SDSs and playing a key role in the decadal decrease of SDSs. The decrease in the intensity of the polar vortex during study period was closely related to the decrease in the intensity and frequency of SDSs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

What Factors Control the Trend of Increasing AAOD Over the United States in the Last Decade?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Li; Henze, Daven K.; Grell, Georg A.; Torres, Omar; Jethva, Hiren; Lamsal, Lok N.

2017-01-01

We examine the spatial and temporal trends of absorbing aerosol optical depth (AAOD) in the last decade over the United States (U.S.) observed by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Monthly average OMI AAOD has increased over broad areas of the central U.S. from 2005 to 2015, by up to a factor of 4 in some grid cells (60 km resolution). The AAOD increases in all seasons, although the percentage increases are larger in summer (June-July-August) than in winter (December-January-February) by a factor of 3. Despite enhancements in AAOD, OMI AOD exhibits insignificant trend over most of the U.S. except parts of the central and western U.S., the latter which may partly be due to decreases in precipitation. Trends in AAOD contrast with declining trends in surface concentrations of black carbon (BC) aerosol. Interannual variability of local biomass burning emissions of BC may contribute to the positive trend in AAOD over the western U.S. Changes in both dust aerosol measured at the surface (in terms of concentration and size) and dust AAOD indicate distinct enhancements, especially over the central U.S. by 50-100%, which appears to be one of the major factors that impacts positive trends in AAOD.

Spatiotemporal variations of potential evapotranspiration and aridity index in relation to influencing factors over Southwest China during 1960-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Yifei; Zou, Xinqing; Cao, Liguo; Yao, Yulong; Fu, Guanghe

2017-07-01

This study investigated the spatial-temporal patterns and trends of potential evapotranspiration (ET0) and aridity index (AI) over Southwest China during 1960-2013 based on daily temperature, precipitation, wind speed, sunshine duration, total solar radiation, and relative humidity data from 108 meteorological stations. The Penman-Monteith model, Mann-Kendall (M-K) test, moving t test, and Morlet wavelet method were used. The results indicated that ET0 and AI across the region displayed decreasing trends, but the former was significant. After 2000, regionally average trends in ET0 and AI increased rapidly, indicating that droughts increased over Southwest China in recent years. Spatially, the changes of ET0 and AI were dissimilar and not clustered, either. Temporally, both ET0 and AI displayed obvious abrupt change points over different timescales and that of AI was during the winter monsoon period. Significant periodic variations with periods of 27, 13, and 5 years were found in ET0, but only of 13 and 5 years existed in AI. Correlation analysis revealed that the sunshine duration and wind speed were the dominant factors affecting ET0 and that AI showed strong negative correlation with precipitation. The findings of this study enhance the understanding of the relationship between climate change and drought in Southwest China, while the mechanism controlling the variation in drought requires further study.

Spatial and Temporal Variability and Trends in 2001-2016 Global Fire Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Earl, Nick; Simmonds, Ian

2018-03-01

Fire regimes across the globe have great spatial and temporal variability, and these are influence by many factors including anthropogenic management, climate, and vegetation types. Here we utilize the satellite-based "active fire" product, from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors, to statistically analyze variability and trends in fire activity from the global to regional scales. We split up the regions by economic development, region/geographical land use, clusters of fire-abundant areas, or by religious/cultural influence. Weekly cycle tests are conducted to highlight and quantify part of the anthropogenic influence on fire regime across the world. We find that there is a strong statistically significant decline in 2001-2016 active fires globally linked to an increase in net primary productivity observed in northern Africa, along with global agricultural expansion and intensification, which generally reduces fire activity. There are high levels of variability, however. The large-scale regions exhibit either little change or decreasing in fire activity except for strong increasing trends in India and China, where rapid population increase is occurring, leading to agricultural intensification and increased crop residue burning. Variability in Canada has been linked to a warming global climate leading to a longer growing season and higher fuel loads. Areas with a strong weekly cycle give a good indication of where fire management is being applied most extensively, for example, the United States, where few areas retain a natural fire regime.

Twenty-five years of change in southern African passerine diversity: nonclimatic factors of change.

PubMed

Péron, Guillaume; Altwegg, Res

2015-09-01

We analysed more than 25 years of change in passerine bird distribution in South Africa, Swaziland and Lesotho, to show that species distributions can be influenced by processes that are at least in part independent of the local strength and direction of climate change: land use and ecological succession. We used occupancy models that separate species' detection from species' occupancy probability, fitted to citizen science data from both phases of the Southern African Bird Atlas Project (1987-1996 and 2007-2013). Temporal trends in species' occupancy probability were interpreted in terms of local extinction/colonization, and temporal trends in detection probability were interpreted in terms of change in abundance. We found for the first time at this scale that, as predicted in the context of bush encroachment, closed-savannah specialists increased where open-savannah specialists decreased. In addition, the trend in the abundance of species a priori thought to be favoured by agricultural conversion was negatively correlated with human population density, which is in line with hypotheses explaining the decline in farmland birds in the Northern Hemisphere. In addition to climate, vegetation cover and the intensity and time since agricultural conversion constitute important predictors of biodiversity changes in the region. Their inclusion will improve the reliability of predictive models of species distribution. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Childhood cancer incidence trends in association with US folic acid fortification (1986-2008).

PubMed

Linabery, Amy M; Johnson, Kimberly J; Ross, Julie A

2012-06-01

Epidemiologic evidence indicates that prenatal vitamin supplementation reduces risk for some childhood cancers; however, a systematic evaluation of population-based childhood cancer incidence trends after fortification of enriched grain products with folic acid in the United States in 1996-1998 has not been previously reported. Here we describe temporal trends in childhood cancer incidence in association with US folic acid fortification. Using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program data (1986-2008), we calculated incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals to compare pre- and postfortification cancer incidence rates in children aged 0 to 4 years. Incidence trends were also evaluated by using joinpoint and loess regression models. From 1986 through 2008, 8829 children aged 0 to 4 years were diagnosed with malignancies, including 3790 and 3299 in utero during the pre- and postfortification periods, respectively. Pre- and postfortification incidence rates were similar for all cancers combined and for most specific cancer types. Rates of Wilms tumor (WT), primitive neuroectodermal tumors (PNETs), and ependymomas were significantly lower postfortification. Joinpoint regression models detected increasing WT incidence from 1986 through 1997 followed by a sizable decline from 1997 through 2008, and increasing PNET incidence from 1986 through 1993 followed by a sharp decrease from 1993 through 2008. Loess curves indicated similar patterns. These results provide support for a decrease in WT and possibly PNET incidence, but not other childhood cancers, after US folic acid fortification.

Decreasing Lower Tropospheric Ozone over the North China Plain Observed by IASI: Looking for Explanations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dufour, G.; Eremenko, M.; Lachâtre, M.; Hauglustaine, D.; Fortems-Cheiney, A.; Cuesta, J.; Zhang, Y.; Cai, Z.; Liu, Y.; Xu, X.; Lin, W.; Cooper, O. R.

2017-12-01

China, and especially the North China Plain (NCP), is a highly polluted region. Emission reductions have been applied since about 10 years, starting with SO2 emissions in 2006 and with NOx emissions in 2010. Recent satellite observations series show a decrease of NO2 tropospheric columns since 2013 and attributed to the NOx emissions reduction. The question of the impact of such reduction on ozone is then arising. In this study, we use the capabilities of the IASI satellite instrument to retrieve 2 semi-independent columns of ozone in the lower (surface-6km asl) and the upper (6-12km) troposphere - the lower tropospheric (LT) column having a sensitivity maximum at 3-4 km - and we evaluate the variability and trend of LT ozone over the NCP for 2008-2016. Deseasonalized monthly timeseries show two distinct periods: a first period (2008-2012) with no significant trend (slope of the linear fit < -0.1 %/yr) and a second period (2013-2016) with a highly significant negative trend of -1.2 %/yr, leading to an overall trend of -0.77 %/yr for 2008-2016. A first temptation is to attribute this decrease to the NOx emissions changes. However, negative trends have not been reported from background surface measurements in this Chinese region. Furthermore recent work made within the framework of the TOAR initiative reveals discrepancies in the sign of the trends of tropospheric column ozone derived from infrared and ultraviolet satellite instruments. As yet there is no conclusive explanation for the discrepancy. We then investigate the IASI retrieval stability and robustness in terms of vertical sensitivity, interferences with large aerosol loading, and comparing with surface and ozonesonde measurements and the IASI instrument aboard the Metop-B satellite. One issue arises concerning the temporal sampling of IASI that may induce significant change in the trend derived from surface stations. We also explore the possible variables, other than emissions, which could explain the observed negative trends using both a statistical regression model and simulations from global and regional chemistry transport models.

Exploring Potential Reasons for the Temporal Trend in Dialysis-Requiring AKI in the United States

PubMed Central

McCulloch, Charles E.; Heung, Michael; Saran, Rajiv; Shahinian, Vahakn B.; Pavkov, Meda E.; Burrows, Nilka Ríos; Powe, Neil R.; Hsu, Chi-yuan

2016-01-01

Background and objectives The population incidence of dialysis-requiring AKI has risen substantially in the last decade in the United States, and factors associated with this temporal trend are not well known. Design, setting, participants, & measurements We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, a United States nationally representative database of hospitalizations from 2007 to 2009. We used validated International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes to identify hospitalizations with dialysis-requiring AKI and then, selected the diagnostic and procedure codes most highly associated with dialysis-requiring AKI in 2009. We applied multivariable logistic regression adjusting for demographics and used a backward selection technique to identify a set of diagnoses or a set of procedures that may be a driver for this changing risk in dialysis-requiring AKI. Results From 2007 to 2009, the population incidence of dialysis-requiring AKI increased by 11% per year (95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.16; P<0.001). Using backward selection, we found that the temporal trend in the six diagnoses, septicemia, hypertension, respiratory failure, coagulation/hemorrhagic disorders, shock, and liver disease, sufficiently and fully accounted for the temporal trend in dialysis-requiring AKI. In contrast, temporal trends in 15 procedures most commonly associated with dialysis-requiring AKI did not account for the increasing dialysis–requiring AKI trend. Conclusions The increasing risk of dialysis-requiring AKI among hospitalized patients in the United States was highly associated with the changing burden of six acute and chronic conditions but not with surgeries and procedures. PMID:26683890

Artisanal Green Turtle, Chelonia mydas, fishery of Caribbean Nicaragua: I. Catch rates and trends, 1991-2011.

PubMed

Lagueux, Cynthia J; Campbell, Cathi L; Strindberg, Samantha

2014-01-01

This is the first assessment of catch rates for the legal, artisanal green turtle, Chelonia mydas, fishery in Caribbean Nicaragua. Data were collected by community members, monitoring up to 14 landing sites from 1991 to 2011. We examined take levels, and temporal and spatial variability in catch rates for the overall fishery, by region, and community using General Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs). More than 171,556 green turtles were killed during the period, with a mean estimated minimum 8,169±2,182 annually. There was a statistically significant decline in catch rates overall. Catch rates peaked in 1997 and 2002, followed by a downward trend, particularly from mid-2008 to the end of the study period. Similar downward trends were evident in both study regions. Community specific catch rate trends also indicated declines with decreases ranging from 21% to 90%. Decrease in catch rates in Nicaragua is cause for concern even though the principal source rookery at Tortuguero, Costa Rica, shows an increase in nesting activity. Explanations for the apparent discrepancy between the increasing trend at Tortuguero and decreasing catch rate trends in Nicaragua include: i) an increase in reproductive output, ii) insufficient time has passed to observe the impact of the fishery on the rookery due to a time lag, iii) changes in other segments of the population have not been detected since only nesting activity is monitored, iv) the expansive northern Nicaragua foraging ground may provide a refuge for a sufficient portion of the Tortuguero rookery, and/or v) a larger than expected contribution of non-Tortuguero rookeries occurring in Nicaragua turtle fishing areas. Our results highlight the need for close monitoring of rookeries and in-water aggregations in the Caribbean. Where consumptive use still occurs, nations sharing this resource should implement scientifically based limits on exploitation to ensure sustainability and mitigate impacts to regional population diversity.

Artisanal Green Turtle, Chelonia mydas, Fishery of Caribbean Nicaragua: I. Catch Rates and Trends, 1991–2011

PubMed Central

Lagueux, Cynthia J.; Campbell, Cathi L.; Strindberg, Samantha

2014-01-01

This is the first assessment of catch rates for the legal, artisanal green turtle, Chelonia mydas, fishery in Caribbean Nicaragua. Data were collected by community members, monitoring up to 14 landing sites from 1991 to 2011. We examined take levels, and temporal and spatial variability in catch rates for the overall fishery, by region, and community using General Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs). More than 171,556 green turtles were killed during the period, with a mean estimated minimum 8,169±2,182 annually. There was a statistically significant decline in catch rates overall. Catch rates peaked in 1997 and 2002, followed by a downward trend, particularly from mid-2008 to the end of the study period. Similar downward trends were evident in both study regions. Community specific catch rate trends also indicated declines with decreases ranging from 21% to 90%. Decrease in catch rates in Nicaragua is cause for concern even though the principal source rookery at Tortuguero, Costa Rica, shows an increase in nesting activity. Explanations for the apparent discrepancy between the increasing trend at Tortuguero and decreasing catch rate trends in Nicaragua include: i) an increase in reproductive output, ii) insufficient time has passed to observe the impact of the fishery on the rookery due to a time lag, iii) changes in other segments of the population have not been detected since only nesting activity is monitored, iv) the expansive northern Nicaragua foraging ground may provide a refuge for a sufficient portion of the Tortuguero rookery, and/or v) a larger than expected contribution of non-Tortuguero rookeries occurring in Nicaragua turtle fishing areas. Our results highlight the need for close monitoring of rookeries and in-water aggregations in the Caribbean. Where consumptive use still occurs, nations sharing this resource should implement scientifically based limits on exploitation to ensure sustainability and mitigate impacts to regional population diversity. PMID:24740258

Decreasing DOC trends in soil solution along the hillslopes at two IM sites in southern Sweden--geochemical modeling of organic matter solubility during acidification recovery.

PubMed

Löfgren, Stefan; Gustafsson, Jon Petter; Bringmark, Lage

2010-12-01

Numerous studies report increased concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) during the last two decades in boreal lakes and streams in Europe and North America. Recently, a hypothesis was presented on how various spatial and temporal factors affect the DOC dynamics. It was concluded that declining sulphur deposition and thereby increased DOC solubility, is the most important driver for the long-term DOC concentration trends in surface waters. If this recovery hypothesis is correct, the DOC levels should increase both in the soil solution as well as in the surrounding surface waters as soil pH rises and the ionic strength declines due to the reduced input of SO(4)(2-) ions. In this project a geochemical model was set up to calculate the net humic charge and DOC solubility trends in soils during the period 1996-2007 at two integrated monitoring sites in southern Sweden, showing clear signs of acidification recovery. The Stockholm Humic Model was used to investigate whether the observed DOC solubility is related to the humic charge and to examine how pH and ionic strength influence it. Soil water data from recharge and discharge areas, covering both podzols and riparian soils, were used. The model exercise showed that the increased net charge following the pH increase was in many cases counteracted by a decreased ionic strength, which acted to decrease the net charge and hence the DOC solubility. Thus, the recovery from acidification does not necessarily have to generate increasing DOC trends in soil solution. Depending on changes in pH, ionic strength and soil Al pools, the trends might be positive, negative or indifferent. Due to the high hydraulic connectivity with the streams, the explanations to the DOC trends in surface waters should be searched for in discharge areas and peat lands. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Accidental hazardous material releases with human impacts in the United States: exploration of geographical distribution and temporal trends.

PubMed

Sengul, Hatice; Santella, Nicholas; Steinberg, Laura J; Chermak, Christina

2010-09-01

To investigate the circumstances and geographic and temporal distributions of hazardous material releases and resulting human impacts in the United States. Releases with fatalities, injuries, and evacuations were identified from reports to the National Response Center between 1990 and 2008, correcting for data quality issues identified in previous studies. From more than 550,000 reports, 861 deaths, 16,348 injuries and 741,427 evacuations were identified. Injuries from releases of chemicals at fixed facilities and natural gas from pipelines have decreased whereas evacuations from petroleum releases at fixed facilities have increased. Results confirm recent advances in chemical and pipeline safety and suggest directions for further improvement including targeted training and inspections and adoption of inherently safer design principles.

Variations in the temperature sensitivity of spring leaf phenology from 1978 to 2014 in Mudanjiang, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Junhu; Xu, Yunjia; Wang, Huanjiong; Alatalo, Juha; Tao, Zexing; Ge, Quansheng

2017-12-01

Continuous long-term temperature sensitivity (ST) of leaf unfolding date (LUD) and main impacting factors in spring in the period 1978-2014 for 40 plant species in Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang Province, Northeast China, were analyzed by using observation data from the China Phenological Observation Network (CPON), together with the corresponding meteorological data from the China Meteorological Data Service Center. Temperature sensitivities, slopes of the regression between LUD and mean temperature during the optimum preseason (OP), were analyzed using 15-year moving window to determine their temporal trends. Major factors impacting ST were then chosen and evaluated by applying a random sampling method. The results showed that LUD was sensitive to mean temperature in a defined period before phenophase onset for all plant species analyzed. Over the period 1978-2014, the mean ST of LUD for all plant species was - 3.2 ± 0.49 days °C-1. The moving window analysis revealed that 75% of species displayed increasing ST of LUD, with 55% showing significant increases (P < 0.05). ST for the other 25% exhibited a decreasing trend, with 17% showing significant decreases (P < 0.05). On average, ST increased by 16%, from - 2.8 ± 0.83 days °C-1 during 1980-1994 to - 3.30 ± 0.65 days °C-1 during 2000-2014. For species with later LUD and longer OP, ST tended to increase more, while species with earlier LUD and shorter OP tended to display a decreasing ST. The standard deviation of preseason temperature impacted the temporal variation in ST. Chilling conditions influenced ST for some species, but photoperiod limitation did not have significant or coherent effects on changes in ST.

Temporal variation in the mating structure of Sanday, Orkney Islands.

PubMed

Brennan, E R; Relethford, J H

1983-01-01

Pedigree and vital statistics data from the population of Sanday, Orkney Islands, Scotland, were used to assess temporal changes in population structure. Secular trends in patterns of mate choice were analysed for three separate birth cohorts of spouses: 1855-1884, 1885-1924 and 1925-1964. The degree to which mating was random or assortative with respect to both genealogical and geographic distance was determined by comparing average characteristics of all potential mates of married males with those of actual wives. We integrated this procedure, originally developed by Dyke (1971), into a three-fold investigation of population structure: (1) comparison of random and non-random components of relatedness as measured from pedigree data; (2) an analysis of marital distance distributions for actual and potential mates of married males; and (3) the relationship between genealogical relatedness and geographic distance. As population size decreased from 1881 to the present, total kinship and spatial distances between spouses increased. Whereas the random component of relatedness increased over time, consanguinity avoidance was sufficient to decrease the total coefficient of kinship over time. Part of the increase in consanguinity avoidance was associated with isolate breakdown, as distances between island-born spouses, as well as the total amount of off-island migration, increased from the mid-nineteenth century to the present. Mate choice was influenced by geographic distance for all time periods, although this effect diminished over time. Since decreases in population size, concomitant with increases in consanguinity avoidance and community exogamy, have probably occurred quite frequently in small human populations, as well as in rural Western communities in the past century, observed secular trends illustrate the potential for change in population structure characteristic of isolate breakdown.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baker, Tyler F; Jett, Robert Trent; Smith, John G.

A dike failure at the Tennessee Valley Authority Kingston Fossil Plant in East Tennessee, United States, in December 2008, released approximately 4.1 million m3 of coal ash into the Emory River. From 2009 through 2012, samples of mayfly nymphs ( Hexagenia bilineata) were collected each spring from sites in the Emory, Clinch, and Tennessee Rivers upstream and downstream of the spill. Samples were analyzed for 17 metals. Concentrations of metals were generally highest the first 2 miles downstream of the spill, and then decreased with increasing distance from the spill. Arsenic, B, Ba, Be, Mo, Sb, Se, Sr, and Vmore » appeared to have strong ash signatures, whereas Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, and Pb appeared to be associated with ash and other sources. Furthermore, the concentrations for most of these contaminants were modest and are unlikely to cause widespread negative ecological effects. Trends in Hg, Cd, and Zn suggested little (Hg) or no (Cd, Zn) association with ash. Temporal trends suggested that concentrations of ash-related contaminants began to subside after 2010, but because of the limited time period of that analysis (4 yr), further monitoring is needed to verify this trend. The present study provides important information on the magnitude of contaminant exposure to aquatic receptors from a major coal ash spill, as well as spatial and temporal trends for transport of the associated contaminants in a large open watershed. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:1159 1171. Published 2015 Wiley Periodicals Inc. on behalf of SETAC. This article is a US government work and, as such, is in the public domain in the United States of America.« less

Modeling evapotranspiration over China's landmass from 1979-2012 using three surface models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Shaobo; Chen, Baozhang; Zhang, Huifang; Lin, Xiaofeng

2017-04-01

Land surface models (LSMs) are useful tools to estimate land evapotranspiration at a grid scale and for a long-term applications. Here, the Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4.0), Dynamic Land Model (DLM) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model were driven with observation-based forcing data sets, and a multiple LSM ensemble-averaged evapotranspiration (ET) product (LSMs-ET) was developed and its spatial-temporal variations were analyzed for the China landmass over the period 1979-2012. Evaluations against measurements from nine flux towers at site scale and surface water budget based ET at regional scale showed that the LSMs-ET had good performance in most areas of China's landmass. The inter-comparisons between the ET estimates and the independent ET products from remote sensing and upscaling methods suggested that there were a fairly consistent patterns between each data sets. The LSMs-ET produced a mean annual ET of 351.24±10.7 mm yr-1 over 1979-2012, and its spatial-temporal variation analyses showed that (i) there was an overall significant ET increasing trend, with a value of 0.72 mm yr-1 (p < 0.01); (ii) 36.01% of Chinese land had significant increasing trends, ranging from 1 to 9 mm yr-1, while only 6.41% of the area showed significant decreasing trends, ranging from -6.28 to -0.08 mm yr-1. Analyses of ET variations in each climate region clearly showed that the Tibetan Plateau areas were the main contributors to the overall increasing ET trends of China.

Analysis of spatial-temporal heterogeneity in remotely sensed aerosol properties observed during 2005-2015 over three countries along the Gulf of Guinea Coast in Southern West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aklesso, Mangamana; Kumar, K. Raghavendra; Bu, Lingbing; Boiyo, Richard

2018-06-01

In the present study, the spatial-temporal distribution and estimation of trends of different aerosol optical properties, and related impact factors were investigated over three countries: Ghana, Togo, and Benin along the Gulf of Guinea Coast in Southern West Africa (SWA). For this purpose, long-term satellite derived aerosol optical properties (aerosol optical depth at 550 nm; AOD550, Ångström exponent at 470-660 nm; AE470-660, and absorption aerosol index; AAI) retrieved from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) during January 2005-December 2015 were utilized. The annual mean spatial distribution of AOD550 was found to be high (>0.55) over the southern coastal area, moderate-to-high (0.35-0.55) over the central, and low (<0.35) over northern parts of the study domain. The seasonal mean variations showed high (low) values of AOD550 and AAI during the Harmattan or dry (wet) season. Whereas, low (high) AE470-660 values were characterized during the Harmattan (wet) season. Linear trend analysis revealed a decreasing trend in AOD550 and AAI, and increasing trend in AE470-660. Further, an investigation on the potential drivers to AOD distribution over the SWA revealed that precipitation, NDVI, and terrain were negatively correlated with AOD. Finally, the HYSPLIT derived back trajectory analyses revealed diverse transport pathways originated from the North Atlantic Ocean, Sahara Desert, and Nigeria along with locally generated aerosols.

Intentional self-harm and assault hospitalisations and treatment cost of children in Australia over a 10-year period.

PubMed

Mitchell, Rebecca J; Seah, Rebecca; Ting, Hsuen P; Curtis, Kate; Foster, Kim

2018-06-01

To examine the magnitude, 10-year temporal trends and treatment cost of intentional injury hospitalisations of children aged ≤16 years in Australia. A retrospective examination of linked hospitalisation and mortality data for children aged ≤16 years during 1 July 2001 to 30 June 2012 with self-harm or assault injuries. Negative binomial regression examined temporal trends. There were 18,223 self-harm and 13,877 assault hospitalisations, with a treatment cost of $64 million and $60.6 million, respectively. The self-harm hospitalisation rate was 59.8 per 100,000 population (95%CI 58.96-60.71) with no annual decrease. The assault hospitalisation rate was 29.9 per 100,000 population (95%CI 29.39-30.39) with a 4.2% annual decrease (95%CI -6.14- -2.31, p<0.0001). Poisoning was the most common method of self-harm. Other maltreatment syndromes were common for children ≤5 years of age. Assault by bodily force was common for children aged 6-16 years. Health professionals can play a key role in identifying and preventing the recurrence of intentional injury. Psychosocial care and access to support services are essential for self-harmers. Parental education interventions to reduce assaults of children and training in conflict de-escalation to reduce child peer-assaults are recommended. Implications for public health: Australia needs a whole-of-government and community approach to prevent intentional injury. © 2018 The Authors.

Surveillance of Wisconsin Antibacterial Susceptibility Patterns.

PubMed

Munson, Erik; Block, Timothy K; Bowles, Erin J; Costello, Michael; Dern, Richard; Fritsche, Thomas R; Helgesen, Michael A; Kropp, Joshua L; Podzorski, Raymond P; Siebers, Karen; Simmons, Brian; Smith, Mary A; Spray, Frances; Van, Tam T; Warshauer, David M

2016-02-01

Antimicrobial resistance presents a threat to quality patient care. Knowledge of localantibacterial susceptibility patterns can guide clinicians in empiric antibacterial administration andassist pharmacists and infectious disease physicians in development of appropriate therapeutic pathways. To characterize Wisconsin antibacterial susceptibility patterns and elucidate geographicor temporal variation in antibacterial resistance, a retrospective, observational analysis of antibiogram data was performed. Seventy-two members of the Wisconsin Clinical Laboratory Network(WCLN) submitted antibiograms describing clinically significant isolates tested in calendar year 2013 to the WCLN Laboratory Technical Advisory Group. In the context of commonly reported antibacterial agents, data were compiled for approximately 75,800 isolates of Escherichia coi; 13,300 Klebsiella pneumoniae; 6300 Proteus mirobilis;2800 Enterobacter cloacae; 8400 Pseudomonas aeruginosa; 30,000 S aureus; 11,200 coagulase-negative Staphylococcus spp; and 13,800 Enterococcus spp. P mirobilis isolates from northern Wisconsin were more likely to demonstrate resistance than those in the southern region. In contrast, P aeruginosa isolates from southern Wisconsin had decreased susceptibility to a number ofagents when compared to other regions. Temporal trending in decreased E coli and P mirabilis susceptibility to fluoroquinolones and trimethoprimsulfamethoxazole was observed. Increased methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus oureus (MRSA) rates were observed in northwest and southeastWisconsin. In general, northeast Wisconsin exhibited less frequency of antibacterial resistance. Geographic variation exists with respect to antibacterial resistance, particularly inareas of Wisconsin adjacent to large population centers of neighboring states. Antibacterial surveillance in Wisconsin is indicated on a regular basis to assess emerging trends in antibacterial resistance. Existing WCLN infrastructure allows for such investigations.

Levels and temporal trends of toxaphene congeners in beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) from the St. Lawrence Estuary, Canada.

PubMed

Gouteux, Bruno; Lebeuf, Michel; Muir, Derek C G; Gagné, Jean-Pierre

2003-10-15

Environmentally relevant toxaphene congeners were determined in blubber samples of stranded beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) from the St. Lawrence Estuary (SLE), Canada. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the levels and the temporal trends (1988-1999) of a suite of six chlorobornanes (P26, P40/41, P44, P50, and P62) in the SLE belugas. P26 and P50 mean concentrations were in the same range as those reported for animals living in the Arctic environment suggesting that the atmospheric transport represents the main input of toxaphene to the SLE. A general exponential decline of chlorobornane concentrations in belugas was observed, except for P26 and P50 in males. On average, concentrations decreased by a factor of two in 8.5 years during the 1988-1999 time period. This rate of decline is similar to the reduction of toxaphene emission from agricultural soils in the southern United States reported over the same time period. Some differences in decline rates were observed among the studied CHB congeners. For instance, P62 decreased more rapidly than P26 and P50 in both male and female belugas. Several hypotheses were advanced to explain these differences such as selective metabolism of specific chlorobornanes by SLE belugas or their prey. However, a most likely explanation is the selective degradation of the technical product in soils and atmosphere in the source region.

Trends in the Use of Percutaneous Ventricular Assist Devices: Analysis of National Inpatient Sample Data, 2007 Through 2012

PubMed Central

Khera, Rohan; Cram, Peter; Lu, Xin; Vyas, Ankur; Gerke, Alicia; Rosenthal, Gary E.; Horwitz, Phillip A.; Girotra, Saket

2016-01-01

Importance Percutaneous ventricular assist devices (PVADs) provide robust hemodynamic support compared with intra-aortic balloon pumps (IABPs), but clinical use patterns are unknown. Objective To examine contemporary patterns in PVAD use in the United States and compare them with use of IABPs. Design, Setting, and Participants Retrospective study of adults older than 18 years who received a PVAD or IABP while hospitalized in the United States (2007-2012). Main Outcomes and Measures Temporal trends in utilization, patient and hospital characteristics, in-hospital mortality, and cost of PVAD use compared with IABP. Results During 2007 through 2012, utilization of PVADs increased 30-fold (4.6 per million discharges in 2007 to 138 per million discharges in 2012; P for trend < .001) while utilization of IABPs decreased from 1738 per million discharges in 2008 to 1608 per million discharges in 2012 (P for trend = .02). In 2007, an estimated 72 hospitals used PVADs, increasing to 477 in 2011 (P for trend < .001). The number of hospitals with an annual volume of 10 or more PVAD procedures per year increased from 0 in 2007 to 102 in 2011 (21.4% ofPVAD-using hospitals; P for trend < .001). Among PVAD recipients, 67.3% had a diagnosis of cardiogenic shock or acute myocardial infarction (AMI). There was a temporal increase in the use of PVADs in older patients and patients with AMI, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease (P for trend < .001 for all). Overall, mortality in PVAD recipients was 28.8%, and mean (SE) hospitalization cost was $85 580 ($4165); both were significantly higher in PVAD recipients with cardiogenic shock (mortality, 47.5%; mean [SE] cost, $113 695 [$6260]; P < .001 for both). The PVAD recipients were less likely than IABP recipients to have cardiogenic shock (34.3% vs 41.2%; P = .001), AMI (48.0% vs68.6%; P < .001), and undergo coronary artery bypass graft surgery (6.2% vs 43.2%; P < .001), but more likely to undergo percutaneous coronary intervention (70.9% vs 40.4%; P < .001). In propensity-matched analysis, PVADs were associated with higher mortality compared with IABP (odds ratio, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.06-1.43]; P = .007). Conclusions and Relevance There has been a substantial increase in the use of PVADs in recent years with an accompanying decrease in the use of IABPs. Given the high mortality, associated cost, and uncertain evidence for a clear benefit, randomized clinical trials are needed to determine whether use of PVADs leads to improved patient outcomes. PMID:25822170

Temporal trends in BMI in Argentina by socio-economic position and province-level economic development, 2005-2009.

PubMed

Christine, Paul J; Diez Roux, Ana V; Wing, Jeffrey J; Alazraqui, Marcio; Spinelli, Hugo

2015-04-01

We investigated temporal trends in BMI, and assessed hypothesized predictors of trends including socio-economic position (SEP) and province-level economic development, in Argentina. Using multivariable linear regression, we evaluated cross-sectional patterning and temporal trends in BMI and examined heterogeneity in these associations by SEP and province-level economic development with nationally representative samples from Argentina in 2005 and 2009. We calculated mean annual changes in BMI for men and women to assess secular trends. Women, but not men, exhibited a strong cross-sectional inverse association between SEP and BMI, with the lowest-SEP women having an average BMI 2.55 kg/m(2) greater than the highest-SEP women. Analysis of trends revealed a mean annual increase in BMI of 0.19 kg/m(2) and 0.15 kg/m(2) for women and men, respectively, with slightly greater increases occurring in provinces with greater economic growth. No significant heterogeneity in trends existed by individual SEP. BMI is increasing rapidly over time in Argentina irrespective of various sociodemographic characteristics. Higher BMI remains more common in women of lower SEP compared with those of higher SEP.

AOD trends during 2001-2010 from observations and model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozzer, Andrea; de Meij, Alexander; Yoon, Jongmin; Astitha, Marina

2016-04-01

The trend of aerosol optical depth (AOD) between 2001 and 2010 is estimated globally and regionally from remote sensed observations by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer) and SeaWIFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor) satellite sensor. The resulting trends have been compared to model results from the EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry {[1]}), model. Although interannual variability is applied only to anthropogenic and biomass-burning emissions, the model is able to quantitatively reproduce the AOD trends as observed by MODIS, while some discrepancies are found when compared to MISR and SeaWIFS. An additional numerical simulation with the same model was performed, neglecting any temporal change in the emissions, i.e. with no interannual variability for any emission source. It is shown that decreasing AOD trends over the US and Europe are due to the decrease in the (anthropogenic) emissions. On contrary over the Sahara Desert and the Middle East region, the meteorological/dynamical changes in the last decade play a major role in driving the AOD trends. Further, over Southeast Asia, both meteorology and emissions changes are equally important in defining AOD trends {[2]}. Finally, decomposing the regional AOD trends into individual aerosol components reveals that the soluble components are the most dominant contributors to the total AOD, as their influence on the total AOD is enhanced by the aerosol water content. {[1]}: Jöckel, P., Kerkweg, A., Pozzer, A., Sander, R., Tost, H., Riede, H., Baumgaertner, A., Gromov, S., and Kern, B.: Development cycle 2 of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy2), Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 717-752, doi:10.5194/gmd-3-717-2010, 2010. {[2]}: Pozzer, A., de Meij, A., Yoon, J., Tost, H., Georgoulias, A. K., and Astitha, M.: AOD trends during 2001-2010 from observations and model simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5521-5535, doi:10.5194/acp-15-5521-2015, 2015.

Detection of the relationship between peak temperature and extreme precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Y.; Liu, J.; Zhiyong, Y.

2017-12-01

Under the background of climate change and human activities, the characteristics and pattern of precipitation have changed significantly in many regions. As the political and cultural center of China, the structure and character of precipitation in Jingjinji District has varied dramatically in recent years. In this paper, the daily precipitation data throughout the period 1960-2013 are selected for analyzing the spatial-temporal variability of precipitation. The results indicate that the frequency and intensity of precipitation presents an increasing trend. Based on the precipitation data, the maximum, minimum and mean precipitation in different temporal and spatial scales is calculated respectively. The temporal and spatial variation of temperature is obtained by using statistical methods. The relationship between temperature and precipitation in different range is analyzed. The curve relates daily precipitation extremes with local temperatures has a peak structure, increasing at the low-medium range of temperature variations but decreasing at high temperatures. The relationship between extreme precipitation is stronger in downtown than that in suburbs.

TEMPORAL TRENDS IN THE HEALTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA CORAL REEFS

EPA Science Inventory

Barron, M.G., D.L. Santavy, L. MacLaughlin, E. Mueller, E. Peters, B. Quarles and J. Campbell. In press. Temporal Trends in the Health of South Florida Coral Reefs (Abstract). To be presented at the SETAC Fourth World Congress, 14-18 November 2004, Portland, OR. 1 p. (ERL,GB R100...

Tweet for health: using an online social network to examine temporal trends in weight loss-related posts.

PubMed

Turner-McGrievy, Gabrielle M; Beets, Michael W

2015-06-01

Few studies have used social networking sites to track temporal trends in health-related posts, particularly around weight loss. To examine the temporal relationship of Twitter messages about weight loss over 1 year (2012). Temporal trends in #weightloss mentions and #fitness, #diet, and #health tweets which also had the word "weight" in them were examined using three a priori time periods: (1) holidays: pre-winter holidays, holidays, and post-holidays; (2) Season: winter and summer; and (3) New Year's: pre-New Year's and post-New Year's. Regarding #weightloss, there were 145 (95 % CI 79, 211) more posts/day during holidays and 143 (95 % CI 76, 209) more posts/day after holidays as compared to 480 pre-holiday posts/day; 232 (95 % CI 178, 286) more posts/day during the winter versus summer (441 posts/day); there was no difference in posts around New Year's. Examining social networks for trends in health-related posts may aid in timing interventions when individuals are more likely to be discussing weight loss.

Global latitudinal-asymmetric vegetation growth trends and their driving mechanisms: 1982-2009

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Thornton, Peter E

2013-01-01

Using a recent Leaf Area Index (LAI) dataset and the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4), we investigate percent changes and controlling factors of global vegetation growth for the period 1982 to 2009. Over that 28-year period, both the remote-sensing estimate and model simulation show a significant increasing trend in annual vegetation growth. Latitudinal asymmetry appeared in both products, with small increases in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and larger increases at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The south-to-north asymmetric land surface warming was assessed to be the principal driver of this latitudinal asymmetry of LAI trend. Heterogeneous precipitationmore » functioned to decrease this latitudinal LAI gradient, and considerably regulated the local LAI change. CO2 fertilization during the last three decades, was simulated to be the dominant cause for the enhanced vegetation growth. Our study, though limited by observational and modeling uncertainties, adds further insight into vegetation growth trends and environmental correlations. These validation exercises also provide new quantitative and objective metrics for evaluation of land ecosystem process models at multiple spatio-temporal scales.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rafique, Rashid; Zhao, Fang; de Jong, Rogier

The net primary productivity (NPP) is commonly used for understanding the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems and their role in carbon cycle. We used a combination of the most recent NDVI and model–based NPP estimates (from five models of the TRENDY project) for the period 1982-2012, to study the role of terrestrial ecosystems in carbon cycle under the prevailing climate conditions. We found that 80% and 67% of the global land area showed positive NPP and NDVI values, respectively, for this period. The global NPP was estimated to be about 63 Pg C y -1, with an increase of 0.214 Pgmore » C y -1 y -1. Similarly, the global mean NDVI was estimated to be 0.33, with an increasing trend of 0.00041 y-1. The spatial patterns of NPP and NDVI demonstrated substantial variability, especially at the regional level, for most part of the globe. However, on temporal scale, both global NPP and NDVI showed a corresponding pattern of increase (decrease) for the duration of this study except for few years (e.g. 1990 and 1995-98). Generally, the Northern Hemisphere showed stronger NDVI and NPP increasing trends over time compared to the Southern Hemisphere; however, NDVI showed larger trends in Temperate regions while NPP showed larger trends in Boreal regions. Among the five models, the maximum and minimum NPP were produced by JULES (72.4 Pg C y -1) and LPJ (53.72 Pg C y -1) models, respectively. At latitudinal level, the NDVI and NPP ranges were ~0.035 y -1 to ~-0.016 y -1 and ~0.10 Pg C y -1 y -1 to ~-0.047 Pg C y -1 y -1, respectively. Overall, the results of this study suggest that the modeled NPP generally correspond to the NDVI trends in the temporal dimension. Lastly, the significant variability in spatial patterns of NPP and NDVI trends points to a need for research to understand the causes of these discrepancies between molded and observed ecosystem dynamics, and the carbon cycle.« less

Climate change and body size trends in aquatic and terrestrial endotherms: Does habitat matter?

PubMed

Naya, Daniel E; Naya, Hugo; Cook, Joseph

2017-01-01

Several studies have claimed that reduction in body size comprises a nearly universal response to global warming; however, doubts about the validity of this pattern for endothermic species have been raised recently. Accordingly, we assessed temporal changes in body mass for 27 bird and 17 mammal species, to evaluate if a reduction in body size during the 20th century is a widespread phenomenon among endothermic vertebrates. In addition, we tested if there are differences in the temporal change in size between birds and mammals, aquatic and terrestrial species, and the first and second half of the 20th century. Overall, six species increased their body mass, 21 species showed no significant changes in size, and 17 species decreased their body mass during the 20th century. Temporal changes in body mass were similar for birds and mammals, but strongly differ between aquatic and terrestrial species: while most of the aquatic species increased or did not change in body mass, most terrestrial species decreased in size. In addition, we found that, at least in terrestrial birds, the mean value of the correlation between body mass and year of collection differs between the first half and the second half of the 20th century, being close to zero for the former period but negative for the later one. To our knowledge, this is the first study showing that temporal changes in body mass differ between aquatic and terrestrial species in both mammals and birds.

Climate change and body size trends in aquatic and terrestrial endotherms: Does habitat matter?

PubMed Central

Naya, Hugo; Cook, Joseph

2017-01-01

Several studies have claimed that reduction in body size comprises a nearly universal response to global warming; however, doubts about the validity of this pattern for endothermic species have been raised recently. Accordingly, we assessed temporal changes in body mass for 27 bird and 17 mammal species, to evaluate if a reduction in body size during the 20th century is a widespread phenomenon among endothermic vertebrates. In addition, we tested if there are differences in the temporal change in size between birds and mammals, aquatic and terrestrial species, and the first and second half of the 20th century. Overall, six species increased their body mass, 21 species showed no significant changes in size, and 17 species decreased their body mass during the 20th century. Temporal changes in body mass were similar for birds and mammals, but strongly differ between aquatic and terrestrial species: while most of the aquatic species increased or did not change in body mass, most terrestrial species decreased in size. In addition, we found that, at least in terrestrial birds, the mean value of the correlation between body mass and year of collection differs between the first half and the second half of the 20th century, being close to zero for the former period but negative for the later one. To our knowledge, this is the first study showing that temporal changes in body mass differ between aquatic and terrestrial species in both mammals and birds. PMID:28813491

Tracking contaminants in seabirds of Arctic Canada: temporal and spatial insights.

PubMed

Mallory, Mark L; Braune, Birgit M

2012-07-01

Levels and trends of persistent organic pollutants and trace elements in seabirds breeding in the vast Canadian Arctic have been monitored since 1975. Data from this monitoring have indicated both spatial and temporal variation across the region, attributable in part to differences in species' diets, differences in regional deposition patterns, and unidirectional trends in contaminants reaching this area from emissions in temperate and tropical areas to the south. Seabird tissues have served as effective biomonitors to examine this variation, and national and international collaboration in this monitoring effort has promoted valuable synthetic assessments of spatial and temporal patterns in Arctic contaminants. Here we review the history of the monitoring program, the critical role played by Environment Canada's National Wildlife Specimen Bank, and we summarize important spatial and temporal trends in various contaminants in Canadian Arctic seabirds. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatiotemporal analysis of the agricultural drought risk in Heilongjiang Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pei, Wei; Fu, Qiang; Liu, Dong; Li, Tian-xiao; Cheng, Kun; Cui, Song

2017-06-01

Droughts are natural disasters that pose significant threats to agricultural production as well as living conditions, and a spatial-temporal difference analysis of agricultural drought risk can help determine the spatial distribution and temporal variation of the drought risk within a region. Moreover, this type of analysis can provide a theoretical basis for the identification, prevention, and mitigation of drought disasters. In this study, the overall dispersion and local aggregation of projection points were based on research by Friedman and Tukey (IEEE Trans on Computer 23:881-890, 1974). In this work, high-dimensional samples were clustered by cluster analysis. The clustering results were represented by the clustering matrix, which determined the local density in the projection index. This method avoids the problem of determining a cutoff radius. An improved projection pursuit model is proposed that combines cluster analysis and the projection pursuit model, which offer advantages for classification and assessment, respectively. The improved model was applied to analyze the agricultural drought risk of 13 cities in Heilongjiang Province over 6 years (2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2014). The risk of an agricultural drought disaster was characterized by 14 indicators and the following four aspects: hazard, exposure, sensitivity, and resistance capacity. The spatial distribution and temporal variation characteristics of the agricultural drought risk in Heilongjiang Province were analyzed. The spatial distribution results indicated that Suihua, Qigihar, Daqing, Harbin, and Jiamusi are located in high-risk areas, Daxing'anling and Yichun are located in low-risk areas, and the differences among the regions were primarily caused by the aspects exposure and resistance capacity. The temporal variation results indicated that the risk of agricultural drought in most areas presented an initially increasing and then decreasing trend. A higher value for the exposure aspect increased the risk of drought, whereas a higher value for the resistance capacity aspect reduced the risk of drought. Over the long term, the exposure level of the region presented limited increases, whereas the resistance capacity presented considerable increases. Therefore, the risk of agricultural drought in Heilongjiang Province will continue to exhibit a decreasing trend.

Evaluating the power to detect temporal trends in fishery-independent time surveys: A case study based on gill nets set in the Ohio waters of Lake Erie for walleyes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Vandergoot, Christopher S.; Tyson, Jeff

2011-01-01

Fishery-independent (FI) surveys provide critical information used for the sustainable management and conservation of fish populations. Because fisheries management often requires the effects of management actions to be evaluated and detected within a relatively short time frame, it is important that research be directed toward FI survey evaluation, especially with respect to the ability to detect temporal trends. Using annual FI gill-net survey data for Lake Erie walleyes Sander vitreus collected from 1978 to 2006 as a case study, our goals were to (1) highlight the usefulness of hierarchical models for estimating spatial and temporal sources of variation in catch per effort (CPE); (2) demonstrate how the resulting variance estimates can be used to examine the statistical power to detect temporal trends in CPE in relation to sample size, duration of sampling, and decisions regarding what data are most appropriate for analysis; and (3) discuss recommendations for evaluating FI surveys and analyzing the resulting data to support fisheries management. This case study illustrated that the statistical power to detect temporal trends was low over relatively short sampling periods (e.g., 5–10 years) unless the annual decline in CPE reached 10–20%. For example, if 50 sites were sampled each year, a 10% annual decline in CPE would not be detected with more than 0.80 power until 15 years of sampling, and a 5% annual decline would not be detected with more than 0.8 power for approximately 22 years. Because the evaluation of FI surveys is essential for ensuring that trends in fish populations can be detected over management-relevant time periods, we suggest using a meta-analysis–type approach across systems to quantify sources of spatial and temporal variation. This approach can be used to evaluate and identify sampling designs that increase the ability of managers to make inferences about trends in fish stocks.

Evaluating the power to detect temporal trends in fishery independent surveys: A case study based on Gillnets Set in the Ohio waters of Lake Erie for walleye

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Vandergoot, Christopher S.; Tyson, Jeff

2009-01-01

Fishery-independent (FI) surveys provide critical information used for the sustainable management and conservation of fish populations. Because fisheries management often requires the effects of management actions to be evaluated and detected within a relatively short time frame, it is important that research be directed toward FI survey evaluation, especially with respect to the ability to detect temporal trends. Using annual FI gill-net survey data for Lake Erie walleyes Sander vitreus collected from 1978 to 2006 as a case study, our goals were to (1) highlight the usefulness of hierarchical models for estimating spatial and temporal sources of variation in catch per effort (CPE); (2) demonstrate how the resulting variance estimates can be used to examine the statistical power to detect temporal trends in CPE in relation to sample size, duration of sampling, and decisions regarding what data are most appropriate for analysis; and (3) discuss recommendations for evaluating FI surveys and analyzing the resulting data to support fisheries management. This case study illustrated that the statistical power to detect temporal trends was low over relatively short sampling periods (e.g., 5–10 years) unless the annual decline in CPE reached 10–20%. For example, if 50 sites were sampled each year, a 10% annual decline in CPE would not be detected with more than 0.80 power until 15 years of sampling, and a 5% annual decline would not be detected with more than 0.8 power for approximately 22 years. Because the evaluation of FI surveys is essential for ensuring that trends in fish populations can be detected over management-relevant time periods, we suggest using a meta-analysis–type approach across systems to quantify sources of spatial and temporal variation. This approach can be used to evaluate and identify sampling designs that increase the ability of managers to make inferences about trends in fish stocks.

Combined effects of environmental disturbance and climate warming on insect herbivory in mountain birch in subarctic forests: Results of 26-year monitoring.

PubMed

Kozlov, M V; Zverev, V; Zvereva, E L

2017-12-01

Both pollution and climate affect insect-plant interactions, but the combined effects of these two abiotic drivers of global change on insect herbivory remain almost unexplored. From 1991 to 2016, we monitored the population densities of 25 species or species groups of insects feeding on mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii) in 29 sites and recorded leaf damage by insects in 21 sites in subarctic forests around the nickel-copper smelter at Monchegorsk, north-western Russia. The leaf-eating insects demonstrated variable, and sometimes opposite, responses to pollution-induced forest disturbance and to climate variations. Consequently, we did not discover any general trend in herbivory along the disturbance gradient. Densities of eight species/species groups correlated with environmental disturbance, but these correlations weakened from 1991 to 2016, presumably due to the fivefold decrease in emissions of sulphur dioxide and heavy metals from the smelter. The densities of externally feeding defoliators decreased from 1991 to 2016 and the densities of leafminers increased, while the leaf roller densities remained unchanged. Consequently, no overall temporal trend in the abundance of birch-feeding insects emerged despite a 2-3°C elevation in spring temperatures. Damage to birch leaves by insects decreased during the observation period in heavily disturbed forests, did not change in moderately disturbed forests and tended to increase in pristine forests. The temporal stability of insect-plant interactions, quantified by the inverse of the coefficient of among-year variations of herbivore population densities and of birch foliar damage, showed a negative correlation with forest disturbance. We conclude that climate differently affects insect herbivory in heavily stressed versus pristine forests, and that herbivorous insects demonstrate diverse responses to environmental disturbance and climate variations. This diversity of responses, in combination with the decreased stability of insect-plant interactions, increases the uncertainty in predictions on the impacts of global change on forest damage by insects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Depth-time interpolation of feature trends extracted from mobile microelectrode data with kernel functions.

PubMed

Wong, Stephen; Hargreaves, Eric L; Baltuch, Gordon H; Jaggi, Jurg L; Danish, Shabbar F

2012-01-01

Microelectrode recording (MER) is necessary for precision localization of target structures such as the subthalamic nucleus during deep brain stimulation (DBS) surgery. Attempts to automate this process have produced quantitative temporal trends (feature activity vs. time) extracted from mobile MER data. Our goal was to evaluate computational methods of generating spatial profiles (feature activity vs. depth) from temporal trends that would decouple automated MER localization from the clinical procedure and enhance functional localization in DBS surgery. We evaluated two methods of interpolation (standard vs. kernel) that generated spatial profiles from temporal trends. We compared interpolated spatial profiles to true spatial profiles that were calculated with depth windows, using correlation coefficient analysis. Excellent approximation of true spatial profiles is achieved by interpolation. Kernel-interpolated spatial profiles produced superior correlation coefficient values at optimal kernel widths (r = 0.932-0.940) compared to standard interpolation (r = 0.891). The choice of kernel function and kernel width resulted in trade-offs in smoothing and resolution. Interpolation of feature activity to create spatial profiles from temporal trends is accurate and can standardize and facilitate MER functional localization of subcortical structures. The methods are computationally efficient, enhancing localization without imposing additional constraints on the MER clinical procedure during DBS surgery. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Total ozone trend significance from space time variability of daily Dobson data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilcox, R. W.

1981-01-01

Estimates of standard errors of total ozone time and area means, as derived from ozone's natural temporal and spatial variability and autocorrelation in middle latitudes determined from daily Dobson data are presented. Assessing the significance of apparent total ozone trends is equivalent to assessing the standard error of the means. Standard errors of time averages depend on the temporal variability and correlation of the averaged parameter. Trend detectability is discussed, both for the present network and for satellite measurements.

Temporal trends in orchidopexy, Great Britain, 1992-1998.

PubMed

Toledano, Mireille B; Hansell, Anna L; Jarup, Lars; Quinn, Mike; Jick, Susan; Elliott, Paul

2003-01-01

Concern has been expressed in recent years about worsening male reproductive health, possibly mediated by increasing exposures to environmental endocrine-disrupting agents. Trends suggested large increases in cryptorchidism in Britain and the United States between the 1950s and 1980s, although published data on recent trends have been scarce. We examined numbers of orchidopexy procedures, as a marker for cryptorchidism, using routine hospital admission data for England, Wales, and Scotland for fiscal years 1992-1993 through 1998-1999. Annual trends in orchidopexy rates were analyzed by age, in-patient admission versus day case, and geographical region. Orchidopexy rates were also obtained from the General Practice Research Database (GPRD) for England to cross-validate the hospital admissions data. Orchidopexy rates for boys 0-14 years old fell by 33% (from 23.5 to 15.8 per 10,000 population) between 1992 and 1998, with the steepest decline (50%) in 5-9-year-olds. The decreasing trend for 0-14-year-olds was evident in every region in England, in Wales, and in Scotland. Rates remained stable for men 15 or more years old, at 0.7 per 10,000. There was a marked shift from in-patient to day-case procedures. Rates from the GPRD showed a similar downward trend to the hospital data. Our findings could represent either an underlying decrease in the frequency of undescended testis or a fairly dramatic improvement in the diagnosis of cryptorchidism--resulting in fewer orchidopexies performed for retractile testis--in Great Britain during the 1990s, or both. Either way, our findings do not support the postulate of a recent worsening of male reproductive health of the scale suggested by some recent commentators on the endocrine disruptor hypothesis.

Temporal trends in orchidopexy, Great Britain, 1992-1998.

PubMed Central

Toledano, Mireille B; Hansell, Anna L; Jarup, Lars; Quinn, Mike; Jick, Susan; Elliott, Paul

2003-01-01

Concern has been expressed in recent years about worsening male reproductive health, possibly mediated by increasing exposures to environmental endocrine-disrupting agents. Trends suggested large increases in cryptorchidism in Britain and the United States between the 1950s and 1980s, although published data on recent trends have been scarce. We examined numbers of orchidopexy procedures, as a marker for cryptorchidism, using routine hospital admission data for England, Wales, and Scotland for fiscal years 1992-1993 through 1998-1999. Annual trends in orchidopexy rates were analyzed by age, in-patient admission versus day case, and geographical region. Orchidopexy rates were also obtained from the General Practice Research Database (GPRD) for England to cross-validate the hospital admissions data. Orchidopexy rates for boys 0-14 years old fell by 33% (from 23.5 to 15.8 per 10,000 population) between 1992 and 1998, with the steepest decline (50%) in 5-9-year-olds. The decreasing trend for 0-14-year-olds was evident in every region in England, in Wales, and in Scotland. Rates remained stable for men 15 or more years old, at 0.7 per 10,000. There was a marked shift from in-patient to day-case procedures. Rates from the GPRD showed a similar downward trend to the hospital data. Our findings could represent either an underlying decrease in the frequency of undescended testis or a fairly dramatic improvement in the diagnosis of cryptorchidism--resulting in fewer orchidopexies performed for retractile testis--in Great Britain during the 1990s, or both. Either way, our findings do not support the postulate of a recent worsening of male reproductive health of the scale suggested by some recent commentators on the endocrine disruptor hypothesis. PMID:12515691

Atmospheric mechanisms governing the spatial and temporal variability of phenological phases in central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheifinger, Helfried; Menzel, Annette; Koch, Elisabeth; Peter, Christian; Ahas, Rein

2002-11-01

A data set of 17 phenological phases from Germany, Austria, Switzerland and Slovenia spanning the time period from 1951 to 1998 has been made available for analysis together with a gridded temperature data set (1° × 1° grid) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index time series. The disturbances of the westerlies constitute the main atmospheric source for the temporal variability of phenological events in Europe. The trend, the standard deviation and the discontinuity of the phenological time series at the end of the 1980s can, to a great extent, be explained by the NAO. A number of factors modulate the influence of the NAO in time and space. The seasonal northward shift of the westerlies overlaps with the sequence of phenological spring phases, thereby gradually reducing its influence on the temporal variability of phenological events with progression of spring (temporal loss of influence). This temporal process is reflected by a pronounced decrease in trend and standard deviation values and common variability with the NAO with increasing year-day. The reduced influence of the NAO with increasing distance from the Atlantic coast is not only apparent in studies based on the data set of the International Phenological Gardens, but also in the data set of this study with a smaller spatial extent (large-scale loss of influence). The common variance between phenological and NAO time series displays a discontinuous drop from the European Atlantic coast towards the Alps. On a local and regional scale, mountainous terrain reduces the influence of the large-scale atmospheric flow from the Atlantic via a proposed decoupling mechanism. Valleys in mountainous terrain have the inclination to harbour temperature inversions over extended periods of time during the cold season, which isolate the valley climate from the large-scale atmospheric flow at higher altitudes. Most phenological stations reside at valley bottoms and are thus largely decoupled in their temporal variability from the influence of the westerly flow regime (local-scale loss of influence). This study corroborates an increasing number of similar investigations that find that vegetation does react in a sensitive way to variations of its atmospheric environment across various temporal and spatial scales.

Emergency extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in transcatheter aortic valve implantation: A two-center experience of incidence, outcome and temporal trends from 2010 to 2015.

PubMed

Trenkwalder, Teresa; Pellegrini, Costanza; Holzamer, Andreas; Philipp, Alois; Rheude, Tobias; Michel, Jonathan; Reinhard, Wibke; Joner, Michael; Kasel, Albert M; Kastrati, Adnan; Schunkert, Heribert; Endemann, Dierk; Debl, Kurt; Mayr, N Patrick; Hilker, Michael; Hengstenberg, Christian; Husser, Oliver

2017-11-11

Although the incidence of periprocedural complications has decreased in transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI), life-threatening complications occur and emergency veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (vaECMO) can provide immediate circulatory stabilization. We report our two-center experience of vaECMO during life-threatening complications in TAVI. From January 2010 to December 2015, 1,810 consecutive patients underwent TAVI at two centers. Clinical characteristics, type of complication, outcome and temporal trends in the requirement of emergency vaECMO were evaluated. Life-threatening complications requiring vaECMO occurred in 1.8% of cases (33 patients; 22 transfemoral, 11 transapical). Indications for vaECMO were ventricular rupture (30%, 10/33), low output (15%, 5/33), bleeding (12%, 4/33), coronary artery impairment (9%, 3/33), ventricular arrhythmias (6%, 2/33), severe aortic regurgitation (6%, 2/33), aortic annular rupture (6%, 2/33), and aortic dissection (3%, 1/33). In 4 cases, no definite cause for hemodynamic instability was identified. Conversion to open heart surgery was necessary in 42% of patients (14/33). Percutaneous coronary intervention was performed in all cases with coronary artery impairment (9%, 3/33). Patients with severe aortic regurgitation (6%, 2/33) underwent emergency valve-in-valve implantation. Other patients received, in addition to vaECMO support conservative treatment (42%, 14/33). In-hospital mortality and 30-day mortality were 46% (15/33). Of patients discharged, 67% (12/18) had no neurological impairment, whereas mild and severe neurological impairment was found in 11% (2/18) and 22% (4/18), respectively. From 2010 to 2015, with increasing procedures (from n = 43 to n = 553) requirement of vaECMO decreased from 9.3% to 0.9% (P for the trend <0.001). Over a 6-year period, need for emergency vaECMO during TAVI significantly decreased over time. Despite high in-hospital mortality, vaECMO represents a feasible strategy for hemodynamic support in case of life-threatening complications. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Aboveground Net Primary Productivity in the Eurasian Steppe from 1982 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiao, C.; Yu, G.; He, N.; Chen, X.; Zhang, C.; Hu, Z.; Ge, J.

2016-12-01

Aboveground net primary productivity (NPPA) is a key integrator for characterizing vegetation activity and assessing the carbon balance of ecosystem. In this study, we combined datasets of Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and NPPA field observations to propose a remote sensing-based model for NPPA (ENPPAModel) estimation in the Eurasian steppe Region (EASR). About 25% of NPPA field observations were extracted randomly to validate ENPPAModel. ENPPAModel was then used to discuss spatiotemporal dynamics of NPPA in EASR from 1982 to 2013. Validation against field observations showed good performance of ENPPAModel over the study region, with an overall coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.66 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 19.33 g C m-2 yr-1. The annual total aboveground net primary productivity (TNPPA) of EASR was 378.97 Tg C yr-1, accounting for 26.46% of the global grasslands. For 3 subregions in EASR, the Black Sea-Kazakhstan steppe subregion had highest TNPPA, amounting to 45.67% of the EASR. The annual average aboveground net primary productivity (NPPA) was 43.78 g C m-2 yr-1 in EASR, lower than that of global grasslands and higher than that of global temperate grasslands (excluding savannas).NPPA showed apparent spatial variations, which was consistent with geographical patterns of vegetation types, reflecting hydrothermal conditions in EASR. TNPPA displayed an overall increasing trend by 0.49% per year in EASR from 1982 to 2013. TNPPA increasing trend was much greater than that of global average and North America. Temporal trends of TNPPA of EASR were significantly various during three different periods. During 1982-1995, TNPPA of EASR increased obviously due to lengthened growing season associated with warming. In the period of 1996 - 2007, TNPPA of EASR decreased significantly attributed to decreasing spring temperature in the Tibetan Plateau alpine steppe subregion and decreasing summer precipitation in the Mongolian Plateau steppe subregion. During 2008 -2013, TNPPA of EASR increased weakly resulted from increasing summer precipitation in the Mongolian Plateau steppe subregion.

Estimating global natural wetland methane emissions using process modelling: spatio-temporal patterns and contributions to atmospheric methane fluctuations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Qiuan; Peng, Changhui; Chen, Huai; Fang, Xiuqin; Liu, Jinxun; Jiang, Hong; Yang, Yanzheng; Yang, Gang

2015-01-01

Aim The fluctuations of atmospheric methane (CH4) that have occurred in recent decades are not fully understood, particularly with regard to the contribution from wetlands. The application of spatially explicit parameters has been suggested as an effective method for reducing uncertainties in bottom-up approaches to wetland CH4 emissions, but has not been included in recent studies. Our goal was to estimate spatio-temporal patterns of global wetland CH4 emissions using a process model and then to identify the contribution of wetland emissions to atmospheric CH4fluctuations. Location Global. Methods A process-based model integrated with full descriptions of methanogenesis (TRIPLEX-GHG) was used to simulate global wetland CH4emissions. Results Global annual wetland CH4 emissions ranged from 209 to 245 Tg CH4 year−1 between 1901 and 2012, with peaks occurring in 1991 and 2012. There is a decreasing trend between 1990 and 2010 with a rate of approximately 0.48 Tg CH4 year−1, which was largely caused by emissions from tropical wetlands showing a decreasing trend of 0.44 Tg CH4 year−1 since the 1970s. Emissions from tropical, temperate and high-latitude wetlands comprised 59, 26 and 15% of global emissions, respectively. Main conclusion Global wetland CH4 emissions, the interannual variability of which was primary controlled by tropical wetlands, partially drive the atmosphericCH4 burden. The stable to decreasing trend in wetland CH4 emissions, a result of a balance of emissions from tropical and extratropical wetlands, was a particular factor in slowing the atmospheric CH4 growth rate during the 1990s. The rapid decrease in tropical wetland CH4emissions that began in 2000 was supposed to offset the increase in anthropogenic emissions and resulted in a relatively stable level of atmospheric CH4 from 2000 to 2006. Increasing wetland CH4 emissions, particularly after 2010, should be an important contributor to the growth in atmospheric CH4 seen since 2007.

Trends and variation in management and outcomes of very low-birth-weight infants with patent ductus arteriosus.

PubMed

Hagadorn, James I; Brownell, Elizabeth A; Trzaski, Jennifer M; Johnson, Kendall R; Lainwala, Shabnam; Campbell, Brendan T; Herbst, Katherine W

2016-12-01

We examined recent trends and interhospital variation in use of indomethacin, ibuprofen, and surgical ligation for patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) in very-low-birth-weight (VLBW) infants. Included in this retrospective study of the Pediatric Hospital Information System database were 13,853 VLBW infants from 19 US children's hospitals, admitted at age < 3 d between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2014. PDA management and in-hospital outcomes were examined for trends and variation. PDA was diagnosed in 5,719 (42%) VLBW infants. Cyclooxygenase inhibitors and/or ligation were used in 74% of infants with PDA overall, however studied hospitals varied greatly in PDA management. Odds of any cyclooxygenase inhibitor or surgical treatment for PDA decreased 11% per year during the study period. This was temporally associated with improved survival but also with increasing bronchopulmonary dysplasia, periventricular leukomalacia, retinopathy of prematurity, and acute renal failure in unadjusted analyses. There was no detectable correlation between hospital-specific changes in PDA management and hospital-specific changes in outcomes of preterm birth during the study period. Use of cyclooxygenase inhibitors and ligation for PDA in VLBW infants decreased over a 10-y period at the studied hospitals. Further evidence is needed to assess the impact of this change in PDA management.

Central line-associated blood stream infections in pediatric ICUs: Longitudinal trends and compliance with bundle strategies

PubMed Central

Edwards, Jeffrey D; Herzig, Carolyn TA; Liu, Hangsheng; Pogorzelska-Maziarz, Monika; Zachariah, Philip; Dick, Andrew W; Saiman, Lisa; Stone, Patricia W; Furuya, E Yoko

2015-01-01

Background Knowing the temporal trend central line-associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI) rates among U.S. pediatric intensive care units (PICU), the current extent of CL bundle compliance, and the impact of compliance on rates is necessary to understand what has been accomplished and can be improved in CLABSI prevention. Methods Longitudinal study of PICUs in National Healthcare Safety Network hospitals and a cross-sectional survey of directors/managers of infection prevention & control departments regarding PICU CLABSI prevention practices, including self-reported compliance with elements of central line bundles. Associations between 2011/12 PICU CLABSI rates and infection prevention practices were examined. Results Reported CLABSI rates decreased during the study period, from 5.8 per 1000 line days in 2006 to 1.4 in 2011/12 (P<0.001). While 73% of PICUs had policies for all central line prevention practices, only 35% of those with policies reported ≥95% compliance. PICUs with ≥95% compliance with central line infection prevention policies had lower reported CLABSI rates, but this association was statistically insignificant. Conclusions There was a non-significant trend in decreasing CLABSI rates as PICUs improved bundle policy compliance. Given that few PICUs reported full compliance with these policies, PICUs increasing their efforts to comply with these policies may help reduce CLABSI rates. PMID:25952048

Trends and variations in breast and colorectal cancer incidence from 1995 to 2011: a comparative study between Texas Cancer Registry and National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results data.

PubMed

Liu, Zheyu; Zhang, Yefei; Franzin, Luisa; Cormier, Janice N; Chan, Wenyaw; Xu, Hua; Du, Xianglin L

2015-04-01

Few studies have examined the cancer incidence trends in the state of Texas, and no study has ever been conducted to compare the temporal trends of breast and colorectal cancer incidence in Texas with those of the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) in the United States. This study aimed to conduct a parallel comparison between the Texas Cancer Registry and the National Cancer Institute's SEER on cancer incidence from 1995 to 2011. A total of 951,899 breast and colorectal cancer patients were included. Age-adjusted breast cancer incidence was 134.74 per 100,000 in Texas and 131.78 per 100,000 in SEER in 1995-2011, whereas age-adjusted colorectal cancer incidence was 50.52 per 100,000 in Texas and 49.44 per 100,000 in SEER. Breast cancer incidence increased from 1995 to 2001, decreased from 2002 to 2006, and then remained relatively stable from 2007 to 2011. For colorectal cancer, the incidence increased in 1995-1997, and then decreased continuously from 1998 to 2011 in Texas and SEER areas. Incidence rates and relative risks by age, gender and ethnicity were identical between Texas and SEER.

Trends and variations in breast and colorectal cancer incidence from 1995 to 2011: A comparative study between Texas Cancer Registry and National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results data

PubMed Central

LIU, ZHEYU; ZHANG, YEFEI; FRANZIN, LUISA; CORMIER, JANICE N.; CHAN, WENYAW; XU, HUA; DU, XIANGLIN L.

2015-01-01

Few studies have examined the cancer incidence trends in the state of Texas, and no study has ever been conducted to compare the temporal trends of breast and colorectal cancer incidence in Texas with those of the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) in the United States. This study aimed to conduct a parallel comparison between the Texas Cancer Registry and the National Cancer Institute’s SEER on cancer incidence from 1995 to 2011. A total of 951,899 breast and colorectal cancer patients were included. Age-adjusted breast cancer incidence was 134.74 per 100,000 in Texas and 131.78 per 100,000 in SEER in 1995–2011, whereas age-adjusted colorectal cancer incidence was 50.52 per 100,000 in Texas and 49.44 per 100,000 in SEER. Breast cancer incidence increased from 1995 to 2001, decreased from 2002 to 2006, and then remained relatively stable from 2007 to 2011. For colorectal cancer, the incidence increased in 1995–1997, and then decreased continuously from 1998 to 2011 in Texas and SEER areas. Incidence rates and relative risks by age, gender and ethnicity were identical between Texas and SEER. PMID:25672365

Progress in the reduction of carbon monoxide levels in major urban areas in Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Ki-Hyun; Sul, Kyung-Hwa; Szulejko, Jan E; Chambers, Scott D; Feng, Xinbin; Lee, Min-Hee

2015-12-01

Long-term trends in observed carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations were analyzed in seven major South Korean cities from 1989 to 2013. Temporal trends were evident on seasonal and annual timescales, as were spatial gradients between the cities. As CO levels in the most polluted cities decreased significantly until the early 2000s, the data were arbitrarily divided into two time periods (I: 1989-2000 and II: 2001-2013) for analysis. The mean CO concentration of period II was about 50% lower than that of period I. Long-term trends of annual mean CO concentrations, examined using the Mann-Kendall (MK) method, confirm a consistent reduction in CO levels from 1989 to 2000 (period I). The abrupt reduction in CO levels was attributed to a combination of technological improvements and government administrative/regulatory initiatives (e.g., emission mitigation strategies and a gradual shift in the fuel/energy consumption mix away from coal and oil to natural gas and nuclear power). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the spatio-temporal variability of seawater quality in the southeastern Arabian Gulf.

PubMed

Mezhoud, Nahla; Temimi, Marouane; Zhao, Jun; Al Shehhi, Maryam Rashed; Ghedira, Hosni

2016-05-15

In this study, seawater quality measurements, including salinity, sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), Secchi disk depth (SDD), pH, and dissolved oxygen (DO), were made from June 2013 to November 2014 at 52 stations in the southeastern Arabian Gulf. Significant variability was noticed for all collected parameters. Salinity showed a decreasing trend, and Chl-a, DO, pH, and SDD demonstrated increasing trends from shallow onshore stations to deep offshore ones, which could be attributed to variations of ocean circulation and meteorological conditions from onshore to offshore waters, and the likely effects of desalination plants along the coast. Salinity and temperature were high in summer and low in winter while Chl-a, SDD, pH, and DO indicated an opposite trend. The CTD profiles showed vertically well-mixed structures. Qualitative analysis of phytoplankton showed a high diversity of species without anomalous species found except in Ras Al Khaimah stations where diatoms were the dominating ones. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changes in erosion and flooding risk due to long-term and cyclic oceanographic trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wahl, Thomas; Plant, Nathaniel G.

2015-01-01

We assess temporal variations in waves and sea level, which are driving factors for beach 23 erosion and coastal flooding in the northern Gulf of Mexico. We find that long-term trends in 24 the relevant variables have caused an increase of ~30% in the erosion/flooding risk since the 25 1980s. Changes in the wave climate-which have often been ignored in earlier assessments-26 were at least as important as sea-level rise (SLR). In the next decades, SLR will likely become 27 the dominating driver and may in combination with ongoing changes in the wave climate (and 28 depending on the emission scenario) escalate the erosion/flooding risk by up to 300% over the 29 next 30 years. We also find significant changes in the seasonal cycles of sea level and 30 significant wave height, which have in combination caused a considerable increase of the 31 erosion/flooding risk in summer and decrease in winter (superimposed onto the long-term 32 trends)

Contemporary Surgical Trends in the Management of Symptomatic Meniscal Tears among United States Military Servicemembers from 2010 to 2015.

PubMed

Pekari, Timothy B; Wang, Kevin C; Cotter, Eric J; Kusnezov, Nicholas; Waterman, Brian R

2018-03-07

The purpose of this investigation is to report on trends over time in the treatment of meniscal pathology among military orthopaedic surgeons, as well as to evaluate the impact of patient demographics and concomitant procedure on the type of meniscal procedure performed. We performed a retrospective analysis of all active-duty United States military servicemembers who underwent a meniscal procedure from 2010 to 2015 within the Military Health System. Patient demographics and surgical variables were extracted from the electronic medical record. Treatments were categorized by location and by type of intervention (i.e., repair or debridement). Chi-square and linear regression analyses were performed to identify temporal trends in meniscal procedures and factors that were correlated with the type of meniscal procedure performed. Out of 29,571 meniscal procedures analyzed, partial meniscectomy was performed in 81.3% ( n  = 24,343) of cases, meniscal repair in 20.3% ( n  = 6,073), and meniscus allograft transplantation (MAT) in 0.7% ( n  = 206). The rates of debridement, repair, and concomitant surgeries did not demonstrate any significant temporal trends, whereas MAT demonstrated a significant decrease in overall utilization. Nearly two-thirds of all meniscal procedures were performed in the medial compartment. MAT occurred equally between the medial and lateral compartments. Lateral meniscal lesions demonstrated significantly higher rates of debridement. With each year of advancing age, there was a 3.7% increasing likelihood of meniscectomy and 6.5% decreasing likelihood of repair. Females were more likely to undergo meniscal repair than males. Patients in the military population were more likely to undergo meniscal repair compared with previously reported rates in the civilian population. In this physically active cohort of nearly 30,000 military patients, 1 in 5 meniscal tears were treated with meniscal repair. Meniscal repairs were performed at a higher rate for all age groups compared with previously reported rates in the civilian population. Further research is required to elucidate the causative factors behind these differences and the effect on postoperative outcomes. IV, cross-sectional study. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Transmitted HIV drug resistance in antiretroviral-treatment-naive patients from Poland differs by transmission category and subtype.

PubMed

Parczewski, Miłosz; Leszczyszyn-Pynka, Magdalena; Witak-Jędra, Magdalena; Maciejewska, Katarzyna; Rymer, Weronika; Szymczak, Aleksandra; Szetela, Bartosz; Gąsiorowski, Jacek; Bociąga-Jasik, Monika; Skwara, Paweł; Garlicki, Aleksander; Grzeszczuk, Anna; Rogalska, Magdalena; Jankowska, Maria; Lemańska, Małgorzata; Hlebowicz, Maria; Barałkiewicz, Grażyna; Mozer-Lisewska, Iwona; Mazurek, Renata; Lojewski, Władyslaw; Grąbczewska, Edyta; Olczak, Anita; Jabłonowska, Elżbieta; Clark, Jeremy; Urbańska, Anna

2015-01-01

The surveillance of HIV-transmitted drug resistance mutations (t-DRMs), including temporal trends across subtypes and exposure groups, remains a priority in the current management of the epidemic worldwide. A cross-sectional analysis of 833 treatment-naive patients from 9 of 17 Polish HIV treatment centres. Partial pol sequences were used to analyse drug resistance with a general time reversible (GTR)-based maximum likelihood algorithm used for cluster/pair identification. Mutation frequencies and temporal trends were investigated. t-DRMs were observed in 9% of cases (5.8% for NRTI, 1.2% NNRTI and 2.0% PI mutations) and were more common among heterosexually infected (HET) individuals (13.4%) compared with MSM (8.3%, P = 0.03) or injection drug users (IDUs; 2.9%, P = 0.001) and in MSM compared with IDUs (P = 0.046). t-DRMs were more frequent in cases infected with the non-B variant (21.6%) compared with subtype B (6.6%, P < 0.001). With subtype B a higher mutation frequency was found in MSM compared with non-MSM cases (8.3% versus 1.8% for IDU + HET, P = 0.038), while non-B variants were associated with heterosexual exposure (30.4% for HET versus 4.8% for MSM, P = 0.019; versus 0 for IDU, P = 0.016). Trends in t-DRM frequencies were stable over time except for a decrease in NNRTI t-DRMs among MSM (P = 0.0662) and an NRTI t-DRM decrease in HET individuals (P = 0.077). With subtype B a higher frequency of sequence pairs/clusters in MSM (50.4%) was found compared with HET (P < 0.001) and IDUs (P = 0.015). Despite stable trends over time, patterns of t-DRMs differed notably between transmission categories and subtypes: subtype B was associated with MSM transmission and clustering while in non-B clades t-DRMs were more common and were associated with heterosexual infections. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Trends in precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration for rivers draining to the Gulf of Maine in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huntington, Thomas G.; Billmire, M.

2014-01-01

Climate warming is projected to result in increases in total annual precipitation in northeastern North America. The response of runoff to increases in precipitation is likely to be more complex because increasing evapotranspiration (ET) could counteract increasing precipitation. This study was conducted to examine these competing trends in the historical record for 22 rivers having >70 yr of runoff data. Annual (water year) average precipitation increased in all basins, with increases ranging from 0.9 to 3.12 mm yr−1. Runoff increased in all basins with increases ranging from 0.67 to 2.58 mm yr−1. The ET was calculated by using a water balance approach in which changes in terrestrial water storage were considered negligible. ET increased in 16 basins and decreased in 6 basins. Temporal trends in temperature, precipitation, runoff, and ET were also calculated for each basin over their respective periods of record for runoff and for the consistent period (1927–2011) for the area-weighted average of the nine largest non-nested basins. From 1927 through 2011, precipitation and runoff increased at average rates of 1.6 and 1.7 mm yr−1, respectively, and ET increased slightly at a rate of 0.18 mm yr−1. For the more recent period (1970–2011), there was a positive trend in ET of 1.9 mm yr−1. The lack of a more consistent increase in ET, compared with the increases in precipitation and runoff, for the full periods of record, was unexpected, but may be explained by various factors including decreasing wind speed, increasing cloudiness, decreasing vapor pressure deficit, and patterns of forest growth.

Trends in risk factors, patterns and causes in hospitalized strokes over 25 years: The Lausanne Stroke Registry.

PubMed

Carrera, Emmanuel; Maeder-Ingvar, Malin; Rossetti, Andrea O; Devuyst, Gérald; Bogousslavsky, Julien

2007-01-01

The Lausanne Stroke Registry includes, from 1979, all patients admitted to the department of Neurology of the Lausanne University Hospital with the diagnosis of first clinical stroke. Using the Lausanne Stroke Registry, we aimed to determine trends in risk factors, causes, localization and inhospital mortality over 25 years in hospitalized stroke patients. We assessed temporal trends in stroke patients characteristics through the following consecutive periods: 1979-1987, 1988-1995 and 1996-2003. Age-adjusted cardiovascular risk factors, etiologies, stroke localizations and mortality were compared between the three periods. Overall, 5,759 patients were included. Age was significantly different among the analyzed periods (p < 0.001), showing an increment in older patients throughout time. After adjustment for age, hypercholesterolemia increased (p < 0.001), as opposed to cigarette smoking (p < 0.001), hypertension (p < 0.001) and diabetes and hyperglycemia (p < 0.001). In patients with ischemic strokes, there were significant changes in the distribution of causes with an increase in cardioembolic strokes (p < 0.001), and in the localization of strokes with an increase in entire middle cerebral artery (MCA) and posterior circulation strokes together with a decrease in superficial middle cerebral artery stroke (p < 0.001). In patients with hemorrhagic strokes, the thalamic localizations increased, whereas the proportion of striatocapsular hemorrhage decreased (p = 0.022). Except in the older patient group, the mortality rate decreased. This study shows major trends in the characteristics of stroke patients admitted to a department of neurology over a 25-year time span, which may result from referral biases, development of acute stroke management and possibly from the evolution of cerebrovascular risk factors.

[Change trend of vegetation cover in Beijing metropolitan region before and after the 2008 Olympics].

PubMed

Sun, Xiao-Peng; Wang, Tian-Ming; Wu, Jian-Guo; Ge, Jian-Ping

2012-11-01

The MODIS-NDVI data from 2000 to 2009 were used to analyze the temporal dynamics and spatial distribution of the vegetation cover in the Beijing metropolitan region before and after the 2008 Olympics. During the study period, the proportion of the significantly increased pixels of NDVI occupied 20.7% while that of the significantly decreased pixels only occupied 4.1% of the total, and the decreasing rate of the NDVI was slightly faster than the increasing rate. The significant changes of the NDVI were mainly concentrated in the low altitude and small slope areas with intensive human activities, and two bands were formed in the plain area, i. e., the vegetation increasing band within the 5th Ring Road and the vegetation decreasing band from the 5th Ring Road to the outside areas of the 6th Ring Road. In the areas with significant vegetation change, there was an obvious transition between the high and low NDVI sections but less change in the medium NDVI section, mainly due to the conversion of land cover type. In the Capital function core area and ecological conservation zones, vegetation change represented a positive trend; while in the urban function expansion area and urban development area, vegetation change had the dual characteristics of both positive and negative trends. A series of ecological engineering projects during the preparatory period of the 2008 Olympics was the main cause of the vegetation increase in the study area.

Temporal and diurnal analysis of trace elements in the Cryospheric water at remote Laohugou basin in northeast Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Dong, Zhiwen; Kang, Shichang; Qin, Dahe; Qin, Xiang; Yan, Fangping; Du, Wentao; Wei, Ting

2017-03-01

An evaluation of glacial meltwater chemistry is needed under recent dramatic glacier melting when water resources might be significantly impacted. This study investigated trace elements variation in the meltwater stream, and its related aquatic environmental information, at the Laohugou (LHG) glacier basin (4260 m a.s.l.) at a remote location in northeast Tibetan Plateau. We focused on the spatial, temporal and diurnal change of trace elements during the glacier ablation period. Results showed evident elements spatial difference on the glacier surface meltwater, as most of the elements showed increased concentration at the terminus compared to higher elevations sites. Dominant elements in the meltwater were Ba, Sr and Cr, whereas elements with high enrichment factors (EFs) were Sb, Ni, Mo and Zn. Temporal change of some trace elements concentration (e.g. Sc, Cu, and Rb) indicated increasing trend with accelerated snow-ice melting, whereas others (e.g. Ni, Zn, and Pb) showed decreasing trend. We find that, trace elements showed evident diurnal change and a peak value of concentration was observed each day at about 15:00-17:00, and the diurnal change was influenced by runoff level and pH. Moreover, EFs calculations revealed that heavy metals were partially originated from regional anthropogenic sources. Overall, the accelerated diurnal and temporal snow-ice melting (with high runoff level) were correlated to increased elemental concentration, pH, EC and elemental change mode, and thus this work is of great importance for evaluating the impacts of accelerated glacier melting to meltwater chemistry and downstream ecosystem in the northeast Tibetan Plateau. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hydroclimate temporal variability in a coastal Mediterranean watershed: the Tafna basin, North-West Algeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boulariah, Ouafik; Longobardi, Antonia; Meddi, Mohamed

2017-04-01

One of the major challenges scientists, practitioners and stakeholders are nowadays involved in, is to provide the worldwide population with reliable water supplies, protecting, at the same time, the freshwater ecosystems quality and quantity. Climate and land use changes undermine the balance between water demand and water availability, causing alteration of rivers flow regime. Knowledge of hydro-climate variables temporal and spatial variability is clearly helpful to plan drought and flood hazard mitigation strategies but also to adapt them to future environmental scenarios. The present study relates to the coastal semi-arid Tafna catchment, located in the North-West of Algeria, within the Mediterranean basin. The aim is the investigation of streamflow and rainfall indices temporal variability in six sub-basins of the large catchment Tafna, attempting to relate streamflow and rainfall changes. Rainfall and streamflow time series have been preliminary tested for data quality and homogeneity, through the coupled application of two-tailed t test, Pettitt test and Cumsum tests (significance level of 0.1, 0.05 and 0.01). Subsequently maximum annual daily rainfall and streamflow and average daily annual rainfall and streamflow time series have been derived and tested for temporal variability, through the application of the Mann Kendall and Sen's test. Overall maximum annual daily streamflow time series exhibit a negative trend which is however significant for only 30% of the station. Maximum annual daily rainfall also e exhibit a negative trend which is intend significant for the 80% of the stations. In the case of average daily annual streamflow and rainfall, the tendency for decrease in time is unclear and, in both cases, appear significant for 60% of stations.

Decreasing annual nest counts in a globally important loggerhead sea turtle population.

PubMed

Witherington, Blair; Kubilis, Paul; Brost, Beth; Meylan, Anne

2009-01-01

The loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nests on sand beaches, has both oceanic and neritic life stages, and migrates internationally. We analyzed an 18-year time series of Index Nesting Beach Survey (Index) nest-count data to describe spatial and temporal trends in loggerhead nesting on Florida (USA) beaches. The Index data were highly resolved: 368 fixed zones (mean length 0.88 km) were surveyed daily during annual 109-day survey seasons. Spatial and seasonal coverage averaged 69% of estimated total nesting by loggerheads in the state. We carried out trend analyses on both annual survey-region nest-count totals (N = 18) and annual zone-level nest densities (N = 18 x 368 = 6624). In both analyses, negative binomial regression models were used to fit restricted cubic spline curves to aggregated nest counts. Between 1989 and 2006, loggerhead nest counts on Florida Index beaches increased and then declined, with a net decrease over the 18-year period. This pattern was evident in both a trend model of annual survey-region nest-count totals and a mixed-effect, "single-region" trend model of annual zone-level nest densities that took into account both spatial and temporal correlation between counts. We also saw this pattern in a zone-level model that allowed trend line shapes to vary between six coastal subregions. Annual mean zone-level nest density declined significantly (-28%; 95% CI: -34% to -21%) between 1989 and 2006 and declined steeply (-43%; 95% CI: -48% to -39%) during 1998-2006. Rates of change in annual mean nest density varied more between coastal subregions during the "mostly increasing" period prior to 1998 than during the "steeply declining" period after 1998. The excellent fits (observed vs. expected count R2 > 0.91) of the mixed-effect zone-level models confirmed the presence of strong, positive, within-zone autocorrelation (R > 0.93) between annual counts, indicating a remarkable year-to-year consistency in the longshore spatial distribution of nests over the survey region. We argue that the decline in annual loggerhead nest counts in peninsular Florida can best be explained by a decline in the number of adult female loggerheads in the population. Causes of this decline are explored.

Spatio-temporal patterns of the effects of precipitation variability and land use/cover changes on long-term changes in sediment yield in the Loess Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Guangyao; Zhang, Jianjun; Liu, Yu; Ning, Zheng; Fu, Bojie; Sivapalan, Murugesu

2017-09-01

Within China's Loess Plateau there have been concerted revegetation efforts and engineering measures since the 1950s aimed at reducing soil erosion and land degradation. As a result, annual streamflow, sediment yield, and sediment concentration have all decreased considerably. Human-induced land use/cover change (LUCC) was the dominant factor, contributing over 70 % of the sediment load reduction, whereas the contribution of precipitation was less than 30 %. In this study, we use 50-year time series data (1961-2011), showing decreasing trends in the annual sediment loads of 15 catchments, to generate spatio-temporal patterns in the effects of LUCC and precipitation variability on sediment yield. The space-time variability of sediment yield was expressed notionally as a product of two factors representing (i) the effect of precipitation and (ii) the fraction of treated land surface area. Under minimal LUCC, the square root of annual sediment yield varied linearly with precipitation, with the precipitation-sediment load relationship showing coherent spatial patterns amongst the catchments. As the LUCC increased and took effect, the changes in sediment yield pattern depended more on engineering measures and vegetation restoration campaign, and the within-year rainfall patterns (especially storm events) also played an important role. The effect of LUCC is expressed in terms of a sediment coefficient, i.e., the ratio of annual sediment yield to annual precipitation. Sediment coefficients showed a steady decrease over the study period, following a linear decreasing function of the fraction of treated land surface area. In this way, the study has brought out the separate roles of precipitation variability and LUCC in controlling spatio-temporal patterns of sediment yield at catchment scale.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Konapala, Goutam; Mishra, Ashok; Leung, L. Ruby

This study investigated the anthropogenic influence on the temporal variability of annual precipitation for the period 1950-2005 as simulated by the CMIP5 models. The temporal variability of both annual precipitation amount (PRCPTOT) and intensity (SDII) was first measured using a metric of statistical dispersion called the Gini coefficient. Comparing simulations driven by both anthropogenic and natural forcings (ALL) with simulations of natural forcings only (NAT), we quantified the anthropogenic contributions to the changes in temporal variability at global, continental and sub-continental scales as a relative difference of the respective Gini coefficients of ALL and NAT. Over the period of 1950-2005,more » our results indicate that anthropogenic forcings have resulted in decreased uniformity (i.e., increase in unevenness or disparity) in annual precipitation amount and intensity at global as well as continental scales. In addition, out of the 21 sub-continental regions considered, 14 (PRCPTOT) and 17 (SDII) regions showed significant anthropogenic influences. The human impacts are generally larger for SDII compared to PRCTOT, indicating that the temporal variability of precipitation intensity is generally more susceptible to anthropogenic influence than precipitation amount. Lastly, the results highlight that anthropogenic activities have changed not only the trends but also the temporal variability of annual precipitation, which underscores the need to develop effective adaptation management practices to address the increased disparity.« less

Analysis on variability and trend in Antarctic sea ice albedo between 1983 and 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Minji; Kim, Hyun-cheol; Choi, Sungwon; Lee, Kyeong-sang; Han, Kyung-soo

2017-04-01

Sea ice is key parameter in order to understand the cryosphere climate change. Several studies indicate the different trend of sea ice between Antarctica and Arctic. Albedo is important factor for understanding the energy budget and factors for observing of environment changes of Cryosphere such as South Pole, due to it mainly covered by ice and snow with high albedo value. In this study, we analyzed variability and trend of long-term sea ice albedo data to understand the changes of sea ice over Antarctica. In addiction, sea ice albedo researched the relationship with Antarctic oscillation in order to determine the atmospheric influence. We used the sea ice albedo data at The Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring and Antarctic Oscillation data at NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC). We analyzed the annual trend in albedo using linear regression to understand the spatial and temporal tendency. Antarctic sea ice albedo has two spatial trend. Weddle sea / Ross sea sections represent a positive trend (0.26% ˜ 0.04% yr-1) and Bellingshausen Amundsen sea represents a negative trend (- 0.14 ˜ -0.25%yr-1). Moreover, we performed the correlation analysis between albedo and Antarctic oscillation. As a results, negative area indicate correlation coefficient of - 0.3639 and positive area indicates correlation coefficient of - 0.0741. Theses results sea ice albedo has regional trend according to ocean. Decreasing sea ice trend has negative relationship with Antarctic oscillation, its represent a possibility that sea ice influence atmospheric factor.

Temporal trends of perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in eggs of coastal and offshore birds: Increasing PFAS levels associated with offshore bird species breeding on the Pacific coast of Canada and wintering near Asia.

PubMed

Miller, Aroha; Elliott, John E; Elliott, Kyle H; Lee, Sandi; Cyr, Francois

2015-08-01

Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) such as perfluoroalkyl carboxylates (PFCAs) and perfluoroalkyl sulfonates (PFSAs) have become virtually ubiquitous throughout the environment, and, based on laboratory studies, have known toxicological consequences. Various national and international voluntary phase-outs and restrictions on these compounds have been implemented over the last 10 to 15 years. In the present study, we examine trends (1990/1991-2010/2011) in aquatic birds (ancient murrelet, Synthliboramphus antiquus [2009 only]; Leach's storm-petrels, Oceanodroma leucorhoa; rhinoceros auklets, Cerorhinca monocerata; double-crested cormorants, Phalacrocorax auritus; and great blue herons, Ardea herodias). The PFCA, PFSA, and stable isotope (δ(15) N and δ(13) C) data collected from these species from the Pacific coast of Canada, ranging over 20 to 30 years, were used to investigate temporal changes in PFAS coupled to dietary changes. Perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS), the dominant PFSA compound in all 4 species, increased and subsequently decreased in auklet and cormorant eggs in line with the manufacturing phase-out of PFOS and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), but concentrations continuously increased in petrel eggs and remained largely unchanged in heron eggs. Dominant PFCA compounds varied between the offshore and coastal species, with increases seen in the offshore species and little or variable changes seen in the coastal species. Little temporal change was seen in stable isotope values, indicating that diet alone is not driving observed PFAS concentrations. © 2015 SETAC.

Changes in temporal variability of precipitation over land due to anthropogenic forcings

DOE PAGES

Konapala, Goutam; Mishra, Ashok; Leung, L. Ruby

2017-02-02

This study investigated the anthropogenic influence on the temporal variability of annual precipitation for the period 1950-2005 as simulated by the CMIP5 models. The temporal variability of both annual precipitation amount (PRCPTOT) and intensity (SDII) was first measured using a metric of statistical dispersion called the Gini coefficient. Comparing simulations driven by both anthropogenic and natural forcings (ALL) with simulations of natural forcings only (NAT), we quantified the anthropogenic contributions to the changes in temporal variability at global, continental and sub-continental scales as a relative difference of the respective Gini coefficients of ALL and NAT. Over the period of 1950-2005,more » our results indicate that anthropogenic forcings have resulted in decreased uniformity (i.e., increase in unevenness or disparity) in annual precipitation amount and intensity at global as well as continental scales. In addition, out of the 21 sub-continental regions considered, 14 (PRCPTOT) and 17 (SDII) regions showed significant anthropogenic influences. The human impacts are generally larger for SDII compared to PRCTOT, indicating that the temporal variability of precipitation intensity is generally more susceptible to anthropogenic influence than precipitation amount. Lastly, the results highlight that anthropogenic activities have changed not only the trends but also the temporal variability of annual precipitation, which underscores the need to develop effective adaptation management practices to address the increased disparity.« less

Causes of spring vegetation greenness trends in the northern mid-high latitudes from 1982 to 2004

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Thornton, Peter E

2012-01-01

The Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) is applied to explore the spatial temporal patterns of spring (April May) vegetation growth trends over the northern mid high latitudes (NMH) (>25 N) between 1982 and 2004. During the spring season through the 23 yr period, both the satellite-derived and simulated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) anomalies show a statistically significant correlation and an overall greening trend within the study area. Consistently with the observed NDVI temperature relation, the CLM4 NDVI shows a significant positive association with the spring temperature anomaly for the NMH, North America and Eurasia. Large study areas experiencemore » temperature discontinuity associated with contrasting NDVI trends. Before and after the turning point (TP) of the temperature trends, climatic variability plays a dominant role, while the other environmental factors exert minor effects on the NDVI tendencies. Simulated vegetation growth is broadly stimulated by the increasing atmospheric CO2. Trends show that nitrogen deposition increases NDVI mostly in southeastern China, and decreases NDVI mainly in western Russia after the temperature TP. Furthermore, land use-induced NDVI trends vary roughly with the respective changes in land management practices (crop areas and forest coverage). Our results highlight how non-climatic factors mitigate or exacerbate the impact of temperature on spring vegetation growth, particularly across regions with intensive human activity.« less

Childhood Cancer Incidence Trends in Association With US Folic Acid Fortification (1986–2008)

PubMed Central

Johnson, Kimberly J.; Ross, Julie A.

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Epidemiologic evidence indicates that prenatal vitamin supplementation reduces risk for some childhood cancers; however, a systematic evaluation of population-based childhood cancer incidence trends after fortification of enriched grain products with folic acid in the United States in 1996–1998 has not been previously reported. Here we describe temporal trends in childhood cancer incidence in association with US folic acid fortification. METHODS: Using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program data (1986–2008), we calculated incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals to compare pre- and postfortification cancer incidence rates in children aged 0 to 4 years. Incidence trends were also evaluated by using joinpoint and loess regression models. RESULTS: From 1986 through 2008, 8829 children aged 0 to 4 years were diagnosed with malignancies, including 3790 and 3299 in utero during the pre- and postfortification periods, respectively. Pre- and postfortification incidence rates were similar for all cancers combined and for most specific cancer types. Rates of Wilms tumor (WT), primitive neuroectodermal tumors (PNETs), and ependymomas were significantly lower postfortification. Joinpoint regression models detected increasing WT incidence from 1986 through 1997 followed by a sizable decline from 1997 through 2008, and increasing PNET incidence from 1986 through 1993 followed by a sharp decrease from 1993 through 2008. Loess curves indicated similar patterns. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide support for a decrease in WT and possibly PNET incidence, but not other childhood cancers, after US folic acid fortification. PMID:22614769

Spatiotemporal trends in human vulnerability to the heat across the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, S. C.; Dixon, P. G.

2016-12-01

While human vulnerability to excessive heat has been well documented, relatively few studies have examined long-term trends in vulnerability to heat events. In this research, we examine temporal trends in mortality associated with heat waves, defined using three different definitions of heat wave, for the largest 51 metropolitan areas of the US, over a 36-year period (1975-2010). Regardless of the definition of heat wave, an overall decline in heat vulnerability is seen over the period. While in the first years of the study, 18 to 26 metropolitan areas showed statistically significant increases in mortality on heat wave days, by the final decade of the study period, this had decreased to 6 to 7. Within this narrative, however, examining individual metropolitan areas shows greater variability within the downward trend. Several contributing factors to the variability were observed, including the occurrence of an extreme heat wave affecting the overall heat wave-mortality relationship, and the frequency of heat events over a given period. These broad decreases in heat vulnerability, while encouraging, should be viewed in a cautionary sense. With society aging, there will be a greater number of highly susceptible individuals in the future; further adaptation gains are difficult in many places as air conditioning is now available in most homes in the US. Further, increased use of air conditioning has been associated with a stronger heat island; which, moving forward, is likely to occur alongside a greater number of heat events.

Large-Scale Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Mediterranean Cephalopod Diversity

PubMed Central

Keller, Stefanie; Bartolino, Valerio; Hidalgo, Manuel; Bitetto, Isabella; Casciaro, Loredana; Cuccu, Danila; Esteban, Antonio; Garcia, Cristina; Garofalo, Germana; Josephides, Marios; Jadaud, Angelique; Lefkaditou, Evgenia; Maiorano, Porzia; Manfredi, Chiara; Marceta, Bojan; Massutí, Enric; Micallef, Reno; Peristeraki, Panagiota; Relini, Giulio; Sartor, Paolo; Spedicato, Maria Teresa; Tserpes, George; Quetglas, Antoni

2016-01-01

Species diversity is widely recognized as an important trait of ecosystems’ functioning and resilience. Understanding the causes of diversity patterns and their interaction with the environmental conditions is essential in order to effectively assess and preserve existing diversity. While diversity patterns of most recurrent groups such as fish are commonly studied, other important taxa such as cephalopods have received less attention. In this work we present spatio-temporal trends of cephalopod diversity across the entire Mediterranean Sea during the last 19 years, analysing data from the annual bottom trawl survey MEDITS conducted by 5 different Mediterranean countries using standardized gears and sampling protocols. The influence of local and regional environmental variability in different Mediterranean regions is analysed applying generalized additive models, using species richness and the Shannon Wiener index as diversity descriptors. While the western basin showed a high diversity, our analyses do not support a steady eastward decrease of diversity as proposed in some previous studies. Instead, high Shannon diversity was also found in the Adriatic and Aegean Seas, and high species richness in the eastern Ionian Sea. Overall diversity did not show any consistent trend over the last two decades. Except in the Adriatic Sea, diversity showed a hump-shaped trend with depth in all regions, being highest between 200–400 m depth. Our results indicate that high Chlorophyll a concentrations and warmer temperatures seem to enhance species diversity, and the influence of these parameters is stronger for richness than for Shannon diversity. PMID:26760965

A positive relationship between spring temperature and productivity in 20 songbird species in the boreal zone.

PubMed

Meller, Kalle; Piha, Markus; Vähätalo, Anssi V; Lehikoinen, Aleksi

2018-03-01

Anthropogenic climate warming has already affected the population dynamics of numerous species and is predicted to do so also in the future. To predict the effects of climate change, it is important to know whether productivity is linked to temperature, and whether species' traits affect responses to climate change. To address these objectives, we analysed monitoring data from the Finnish constant effort site ringing scheme collected in 1987-2013 for 20 common songbird species together with climatic data. Warm spring temperature had a positive linear relationship with productivity across the community of 20 species independent of species' traits (realized thermal niche or migration behaviour), suggesting that even the warmest spring temperatures remained below the thermal optimum for reproduction, possibly due to our boreal study area being closer to the cold edge of all study species' distributions. The result also suggests a lack of mismatch between the timing of breeding and peak availability of invertebrate food of the study species. Productivity was positively related to annual growth rates in long-distance migrants, but not in short-distance migrants. Across the 27-year study period, temporal trends in productivity were mostly absent. The population sizes of species with colder thermal niches had decreasing trends, which were not related to temperature responses or temporal trends in productivity. The positive connection between spring temperature and productivity suggests that climate warming has potential to increase the productivity in bird species in the boreal zone, at least in the short term.

Trends in chlorinated hydrocarbon levels in Hudson River basin sediments.

PubMed

Bopp, R F; Chillrud, S N; Shuster, E L; Simpson, H J; Estabrooks, F D

1998-08-01

Analysis of sections from dated sediment cores were used to establish geographic distributions and temporal trends of chlorinated hydrocarbon contaminant levels in sediments from natural waters of the Hudson River basin. Radiometric dating was based primarily on the depth distribution of 137(Cs) in the cores and on the occurrence of detectable levels of 7(Be) in surface sediment samples. Eighteen sampling sites included several along the main stem of the Hudson, its major tributaries, and components of the New York/New Jersey (NY/NJ) harbor complex. Drinking-water reservoirs were sampled to place upper limits on atmospheric inputs. Core sections were analyzed for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), 1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl) ethane (DDT)-derived compounds, chlordane, and dioxins. Sediment concentrations of most contaminants at most sites have decreased significantly since the mid-1960s. The data provide a basinwide perspective on major point-source inputs of PCBs to the upper Hudson River and of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin and DDT to the lower Passaic River. Evidence was found for significant but poorly characterized sources of PCBs and chlordane to the western NY/NJ harbor, and of highly chlorinated dioxins to the upstream sites on the main stem of the Hudson. The results indicate that analysis of dated sediment samples is a most effective and efficient monitoring tool for the study of large-scale geographic and temporal trends in levels of particle-associated contaminants.

Scaling approach of terrestrial carbon cycle over Alaska's black spruce forests: a synthesis of field observation, remote sensing, and ecosystem modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ueyama, M.; Date, T.; Harazono, Y.; Ichii, K.

2007-12-01

Spatio-temporal scale up of the eddy covariance data is an important challenge especially in the northern high latitude ecosystems, since continuous ground observations are rarely conducted. In this study, we measured the carbon fluxes at a black spruce forest in interior Alaska, and then scale up the eddy covariance data to spatio- temporal variations in regional carbon budget by using satellite remote sensing data and a process based ecosystem model, Biome-BGC. At point scale, both satellite-based empirical model and Biome-BGC could reproduce seasonal and interannual variations in GPP/RE/NEE. The magnitude of GPP/RE is also consistent among the models. However, spatial patterns in GPP/RE are something different among the models; high productivity in low elevation area is estimated by the satellite-based model whereas insignificant relationship is simulated by Biome-BGC. Long- term satellite records, AVHRR and MODIS, show the gradual decline of NDVI in Alaska's black spruce forests between 1981 and 2006, resulting in a general trend of decreasing GPP/RE for Alaska's black spruce forests. These trends are consistent with the Biome-BGC simulation. The trend of carbon budget is also consistent among the models, where the carbon budget of black spruce forests did not significantly change in the period. The simulated results suggest that the carbon fluxes in black spruce forests could be more sensitive to water availability than air temperature.

Ostracod body size trends do not follow either Bergmann's rule or Cope's rule during periods of constant temperature increase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Y.; Seshadri, P.; Amin, V.; Heim, N. A.; Payne, J.

2013-12-01

Over time, organisms have adapted to changing environments by evolving to be larger or smaller. Scientists have described body-size trends using two generalized theories. Bergmann's rule states that body size is inversely related to temperature, and Cope's rule establishes an increase over time. Cope's rule has been hypothesized as a temporal manifestation of Bergmann's rule, as the temperature of the Earth has consistently decreased over time and mean body size has increased. However, during times of constant temperature increase, Bergmann's rule and Cope's rule predict opposite effects on body size. Our goal was to clarify this relationship using both accessible proxies of historic temperature - atmospheric CO2 levels and paleo-latitude. We measured ostracod lengths throughout the Paleozoic and Mesozoic eras (using the Catalogue of Ostracoda) and utilized ostracod latitudinal information from the Paleobiology Database. By closely studying body-size trends during four time periods of constant CO2 increase across spectrums of time and latitude, we were able to compare the effects of Cope's and Bergmann's rule. The correlation, p-values, and slopes of each of our graphs showed that there is no clear relationship between body size and each of these rules in times of temperature increase, both latitudinally and temporally. Therefore, both Cope's and Bergmann's rule act on marine ostracods and no rule is dominant, though our results more strongly disprove the latitudinal variation in ostracod size.

[Incidence of peptic ulcer at the Instituto Nacional de la Nutrición "Salvador Zubirán": study of localization, associated factors and temporal trends].

PubMed

Bobadilla, J; Vargas-Vorácková, F; Gómez, A; Jesús Villalobos, J

1996-01-01

To know the frequency, trends and associated factors of peptic ulcer disease in our Institute. Peptic ulcer is an important disease; about 5-10% of the population can expect to develop this disease during lifetime. We reviewed 1,123 patients with peptic ulcer in five years. Sex, age, habits (tobacco and alcohol consumption), non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs use, ulcer location and complications were analyzed. To evaluate temporal trends, our results were compared with previous studies made in our Institute. The male-female ratio was 1:1, with a mean age of 52.2 years. Forty percent of the patients had duodenal ulcer, 42% had gastric ulcer, and 19% had esophageal, anastomotic or multiple ulcers. The most common complication was bleeding, which occurred more frequently in gastric (37%) than duodenal ulcer (24%) (P < 0.005). Gastric ulcer occurred in older patients when compared to duodenal ulcer (P < 0.02). Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs consumption was more frequent in patients with gastric (14%) than duodenal ulcer (10%) (P < 0.04). The frequency of tobacco and alcohol consumption was higher in multiple ulcers. A tendency toward a decreased frequency of duodenal ulcer and increased frequency of gastric ulcer was observed in our Institute during the last 30 years. In the same period, bleeding has been the leading complication, suggesting a higher referral of complicated peptic ulcer.

Occupational contact urticaria: lessons from the French National Network for Occupational Disease Vigilance and Prevention (RNV3P).

PubMed

Bensefa-Colas, L; Telle-Lamberton, M; Faye, S; Bourrain, J-L; Crépy, M-N; Lasfargues, G; Choudat, D; Momas, I

2015-12-01

Occupational contact urticaria (OCU) is an occupational contact dermatitis that can cause serious health consequences and disability at work. To describe OCU and its temporal trends by the main causal agents and activity sectors in a nationwide scheme in France. Using data from the French National Network for Occupational Disease Vigilance and Prevention (RNV3P), we described OCU reported during the period 2001-10 and analysed the temporal trends of OCU and OCU attributed to the most frequent agents over the study period. Trends analyses were supported by reporting odds ratios using a logistic regression model with reference to 2001, or with time as a continuous variable. During the study period, 251 cases of OCU were reported in RNV3P, half of which were due to natural rubber latex, in particular in the health and social work activity sector (HSW). The number of these cases declined significantly over the study period (19% per year), and particularly after 2006. Conversely, the other causes of OCU did not decrease. Using surveillance data from a French national network, this study has found that there was a significant decline in OCU due to natural rubber latex, particularly in the HSW, when powdered latex gloves were banned from French hospitals. Our results show the effectiveness of this preventive measure, and suggest that this practice should be extended to other sectors. © 2015 British Association of Dermatologists.

Trends in Dietary Supplement Use among US Adults From 1999–2012

PubMed Central

Kantor, Elizabeth D.; Rehm, Colin D.; Du, Mengmeng; White, Emily; Giovannucci, Edward L.

2016-01-01

Importance Dietary supplements are commonly used by US adults; yet, little is known about recent trends in supplement use. Objective To report trends in dietary supplement use among US adults. Design, Setting, and Participants Temporal trends in supplement use were evaluated using nationally representative data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) collected between 1999 and 2012. Participants include non-institutionalized adults residing in the US, surveyed over 7 continuous 2-year cycles (sample size per cycle ranged from 4,863 to 6,213). Exposures Calendar time, as represented by NHANES cycle. Main Outcomes/Measures In an in-home interview, participants were queried on use of supplements in the 30 days prior. This information was used to estimate the prevalence of use within each NHANES cycle, and trends were evaluated across cycles. Results are presented for use of any supplements, use of multivitamins/multiminerals (MVMM), as defined by a product containing ≥10 vitamins and/or minerals, as well as use of individual vitamins, minerals, and non-vitamin, non-mineral supplements. Results are presented overall, and by population subgroup, including age, sex, race/ethnicity, and educational status. All analyses are weighted to be nationally representative. Results A total of 37,958 adults were included in the study [weighted mean age, 46.4 years, 52.0% women], with an overall response rate of 74%. Overall, use of supplements remained stable between 1999 and 2012, with 52% of US adults reporting use of any supplements in 2011–2012 (p-trend:0.19). This trend varied by population subgroup. Use of MVMM decreased, with 37% reporting use of MVMM in 1999–2000 and 31% reporting use in 2011–2012 (difference: −5.7%; 95% CI: −8.6%, −2.7%; p-trend<0.001). Vitamin D supplementation from sources other than MVMM increased from 5.1% to 19% (difference: 14%; 95% CI: 12%, 17%; p-trend<0.001) and use of fish oil supplements increased from 1.3% to 12% (difference: 11%; 95% CI: 9.1%, 12%; p-trend<0.001) over the study period, while use of a number of supplements decreased. Conclusions and Relevance Among adults in the United States, overall use of dietary supplements remained stable from 1999–2012, use of MVMM decreased, and trends in use of individual supplements varied and were heterogeneous by population subgroups. PMID:27727382

Spatial pattern and temporal trend of mortality due to tuberculosis 10

PubMed Central

de Queiroz, Ana Angélica Rêgo; Berra, Thaís Zamboni; Garcia, Maria Concebida da Cunha; Popolin, Marcela Paschoal; Belchior, Aylana de Souza; Yamamura, Mellina; dos Santos, Danielle Talita; Arroyo, Luiz Henrique; Arcêncio, Ricardo Alexandre

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Objectives: To describe the epidemiological profile of mortality due to tuberculosis (TB), to analyze the spatial pattern of these deaths and to investigate the temporal trend in mortality due to tuberculosis in Northeast Brazil. Methods: An ecological study based on secondary mortality data. Deaths due to TB were included in the study. Descriptive statistics were calculated and gross mortality rates were estimated and smoothed by the Local Empirical Bayesian Method. Prais-Winsten’s regression was used to analyze the temporal trend in the TB mortality coefficients. The Kernel density technique was used to analyze the spatial distribution of TB mortality. Results: Tuberculosis was implicated in 236 deaths. The burden of tuberculosis deaths was higher amongst males, single people and people of mixed ethnicity, and the mean age at death was 51 years. TB deaths were clustered in the East, West and North health districts, and the tuberculosis mortality coefficient remained stable throughout the study period. Conclusions: Analyses of the spatial pattern and temporal trend in mortality revealed that certain areas have higher TB mortality rates, and should therefore be prioritized in public health interventions targeting the disease. PMID:29742272

Water-quality trends for selected sampling sites in the upper Clark Fork Basin, Montana, water years 1996-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Steven K.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Lorenz, David L.; Barnhart, Elliott P.

2014-01-01

A large-scale trend analysis was done on specific conductance, selected trace elements (arsenic, cadmium, copper, iron, lead, manganese, and zinc), and suspended-sediment data for 22 sites in the upper Clark Fork Basin for water years 1996–2010. Trend analysis was conducted by using two parametric methods: a time-series model (TSM) and multiple linear regression on time, streamflow, and season (MLR). Trend results for 1996–2010 indicate moderate to large decreases in flow-adjusted concentrations (FACs) and loads of copper (and other metallic elements) and suspended sediment in Silver Bow Creek upstream from Warm Springs. Deposition of metallic elements and suspended sediment within Warm Springs Ponds substantially reduces the downstream transport of those constituents. However, mobilization of copper and suspended sediment from floodplain tailings and stream banks in the Clark Fork reach from Galen to Deer Lodge is a large source of metallic elements and suspended sediment, which also affects downstream transport of those constituents. Copper and suspended-sediment loads mobilized from within this reach accounted for about 40 and 20 percent, respectively, of the loads for Clark Fork at Turah Bridge (site 20); whereas, streamflow contributed from within this reach only accounted for about 8 percent of the streamflow at Turah Bridge. Minor changes in FACs and loads of copper and suspended sediment are indicated for this reach during 1996–2010. Clark Fork reaches downstream from Deer Lodge are relatively smaller sources of metallic elements than the reach from Galen to Deer Lodge. In general, small decreases in loads and FACs of copper and suspended sediment are indicated for Clark Fork sites downstream from Deer Lodge during 1996–2010. Thus, although large decreases in FACs and loads of copper and suspended sediment are indicated for Silver Bow Creek upstream from Warm Springs, those large decreases are not translated to the more downstream reaches largely because of temporal stationarity in constituent transport relations in the Clark Fork reach from Galen to Deer Lodge. Unlike metallic elements, arsenic (a metalloid element) in streams in the upper Clark Fork Basin typically is mostly in dissolved phase, has less variability in concentrations, and has weaker direct relations with suspended-sediment concentrations and streamflow. Arsenic trend results for 1996–2010 indicate generally moderate decreases in FACs and loads in Silver Bow Creek upstream from Opportunity. In general, small temporal changes in loads and FACs of arsenic are indicated for Silver Bow Creek and Clark Fork reaches downstream from Opportunity during 1996–2010. Contribution of arsenic (from Warm Springs Ponds, the Mill-Willow bypass, and groundwater sources) in the Silver Bow Creek reach from Opportunity to Warm Springs is a relatively large source of arsenic. Arsenic loads originating from within this reach accounted for about 11 percent of the load for Clark Fork at Turah Bridge; whereas, streamflow contributed from within this reach only accounted for about 2 percent of the streamflow at Turah Bridge.

Earth Observation for monitoring phenology for european land use and ecosystems over 1998-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceccherini, Guido; Gobron, Nadine

2013-04-01

Long-term measurements of plant phenology have been used to track vegetation responses to climate change but are often limited to particular species and locations and may not represent synoptic patterns. Given the limitations of working directly with in-situ data, many researchers have instead used available satellite remote sensing. Remote sensing extends the possible spatial coverage and temporal range of phenological assessments of environmental change due to the greater availability of observations. Variations and trends of vegetation dynamics are important because they alter the surface carbon, water and energy balance. For example, the net ecosystem CO2 exchange of vegetation is strongly linked to length of the growing season: extentions and decreases in length of growing season modify carbon uptake and the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. Advances and delays in starting of growing season also affect the surface energy balance and consequently transpiration. The Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) is a key climate variable identified by Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS) that can be monitored from space. This dimensionless variable - varying between 0 and 1- is directly linked to the photosynthetic activity of vegetation, and therefore, can monitor changes in phenology. In this study, we identify the spatio/temporal patterns of vegetation dynamics using a long-term remotely sensed FAPAR dataset over Europe. Our aim is to provide a quantitative analysis of vegetation dynamics relevant to climate studies in Europe. As part of this analysis, six vegetation phenological metrics have been defined and made routinely in Europe. Over time, such metrics can track simple, yet critical, impacts of climate change on ecosystems. Validation has been performed through a direct comparison against ground-based data over ecological sites. Subsequently, using the spatio/temporal variability of this suite of metrics, we classify areas with similar vegetation dynamics. This permits assessment of variations and trends of vegetation dynamics over Europe. Statistical tests to assess the significance of temporal changes are used to evaluate trends in the metrics derived from the recorded time series of the FAPAR.

Long-term trends in Anopheles gambiae insecticide resistance in Côte d'Ivoire.

PubMed

Edi, Constant A V; Koudou, Benjamin G; Bellai, Louise; Adja, Akre M; Chouaibou, Mouhamadou; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Barry, Sarah J E; Johnson, Paul C D; Müller, Pie; Dongus, Stefan; N'Goran, Eliezer K; Ranson, Hilary; Weetman, David

2014-11-28

Malaria control is heavily dependent on the use of insecticides that target adult mosquito vectors via insecticide treated nets (ITNs) or indoor residual spraying (IRS). Four classes of insecticide are approved for IRS but only pyrethroids are available for ITNs. The rapid rise in insecticide resistance in African malaria vectors has raised alarms about the sustainability of existing malaria control activities. This problem might be particularly acute in Côte d'Ivoire where resistance to all four insecticide classes has recently been recorded. Here we investigate temporal trends in insecticide resistance across the ecological zones of Côte d'Ivoire to determine whether apparent pan-African patterns of increasing resistance are detectable and consistent across insecticides and areas. We combined data on insecticide resistance from a literature review, and bioassays conducted on field-caught Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes for the four WHO-approved insecticide classes for ITN/IRS. The data were then mapped using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and the IR mapper tool to provide spatial and temporal distribution data on insecticide resistance in An. gambiae sensu lato from Côte d'Ivoire between 1993 and 2014. Bioassay mortality decreased over time for all insecticide classes, though with significant spatiotemporal variation, such that stronger declines were observed in the southern ecological zone for DDT and pyrethroids than in the central zone, but with an apparently opposite effect for the carbamate and organophosphate. Variation in relative abundance of the molecular forms, coupled with dramatic increase in kdr 1014F frequency in M forms (An. coluzzii) seems likely to be a contributory factor to these patterns. Although records of resistance across insecticide classes have become more common, the number of classes tested in studies has also increased, precluding a conclusion that multiple resistance has also increased. Our analyses attempted synthesis of 22 years of bioassay data from Côte d'Ivoire, and despite a number of caveats and potentially confounding variables, suggest significant but spatially-variable temporal trends in insecticide resistance. In the light of such spatio-temporal dynamics, regular, systematic and spatially-expanded monitoring is warranted to provide accurate information on insecticide resistance for control programme management.

Long-term (10 year) trends in the chemistry of urban streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groffman, P. M.; Band, L. E.; Belt, K. T.; Kaushal, S.; Fisher, G. T.

2010-12-01

Weekly sampling of eight streams in the Baltimore metropolitan area has been carried out since 1998 as part of the NSF funded Baltimore urban Long-Term Ecological Research (BES LTER) project. The BES watersheds include 100% forested and agricultural catchments and developed watersheds ranging from very low-density (<1% impervious surface) suburban watersheds serviced by septic systems to more dense (> 40% impervious surface) urban watersheds. Stream discharge is continuously monitored at these sites by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Stream samples are collected weekly regardless of flow conditions (no bias towards storm versus baseflow) and analyzed for nitrate, total nitrogen (N), phosphate, total phosphorus (P), chloride and sulfate. Ten-year analysis of the BES long-term study sites reveals several interesting spatial and temporal patterns. For N, the highest concentrations were found in the agricultural and suburban watersheds, followed by the urban sites, and finally by the forested site. Organic N was most important as a proportion of total N in the urban and forested sites. Spatial patterns in P were more complex, with urban, suburban and agricultural sites having the highest values. Over the ten year record, many sites showed significant changes in N concentrations, but few sites showed consistent patterns in P. The patterns in N were quite variable however, with some sites showing striking increases, while others showed striking decreases. Most (7 of 8) sites showed a decrease in the proportion of organic N, the trend was significant at 4 of the sites. There were few trends in the proportion of organic P. Discharge was a significant driver of variation in N and P export at some (mostly smaller watersheds) sites, for some solutes, but was not an overwhelmingly important driver of temporal variation. Key factors driving long-term patterns include climate variation and efforts to improve urban stream water quality by municipal authorities.

Temporal trends in maternal medical conditions and stillbirth.

PubMed

Patel, Emily M; Goodnight, William H; James, Andra H; Grotegut, Chad A

2015-05-01

The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence and temporal trends of medical conditions among women with stillbirth and to determine the effect of medical comorbidities on the trend of stillbirth. The Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) for the years 2008-2010 was first queried for all delivery-related discharges. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed with adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) calculated for medical conditions among women with stillbirth. The NIS was then queried for the years 2000-2010, and the effect of maternal medical conditions on the stillbirth rate was estimated. From 2008 to 2010, there were 51,080 deliveries to women with stillbirth, giving a rate of 4.08 per 1000 live births. Women with stillbirth were more likely to be African American (OR, 2.12; 95% CI, 2.07-2.17), with an age less than 25 years (OR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.16-1.22) or older than 35 years (OR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.37-1.44) compared with women without stillbirth. Medical conditions such as cardiac, rheumatological, and renal disorders; hypertension; diabetes; thrombophilia; and drug, alcohol and tobacco use, were independent predictors of fetal demise in multivariable logistic regression modeling. From 2000 to 2010, despite an increase in the total number of births to women with comorbidities, there was a significant decrease in the stillbirth rate, which was more pronounced among women with comorbidities compared with women without comorbidities (P=.021). From 2000 to 2010, there was a significantly greater decrease in the stillbirth rate among women with maternal medical conditions than there was among women without comorbidities. These findings occurred despite an overall increase in the number of pregnancies to women with medical comorbidities over the time period. Because the NIS does not include information on gestational age, birthweight, or whether subjects had antepartum testing, we are not able to determine the effect of these variables on the observed outcomes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Scientific activities of Euro Chlor in monitoring and assessing naturally and man-made organohalogens.

PubMed

Lecloux, A J

2003-07-01

In this paper a review of the scientific activities and research programmes carried out by Euro Chlor, the European Federation of chlor-alkali producers is presented according to two main axes: marine risk assessments with statistical analysis of monitoring data, temporal trends of emission levels and environmental concentrations. The methodology applied in each field is briefly presented and then illustrated by several practical examples. As a large part of the uncertainties in assessing the risk of a chemical to a given species or ecosystem often comes from the difficulty in evaluating the exposure level, Euro Chlor has chosen to use a monitoring approach, the exposure level being estimated from a statistical analysis of measured concentrations levels in water and sediment from rivers, estuaries and coastal areas. As the modelling approach often used by the authorities to estimate the predicted environmental concentration value is starting from roughly estimated emission levels, Euro Chlor collated emissions data from about 80 production plants in order to reduce the uncertainty associated with the default values introduced in the modelling approach.A brief review of the European emission levels for chlorinated organic substances is given as well as the temporal trends of both emission and environmental levels. A methodology to quantify the trends in measured concentrations at local and regional scales is briefly described. The observed decreasing trends demonstrate the continuous progress made by the Euro Chlor member companies in protecting the environment.Finally, the problems linked to the simultaneous presence in the environment of naturally and man-made chlorinated substances are briefly reviewed. To stimulate further research in the field, two key questions are raised which have not yet found a satisfactory answer: how to quantify natural background levels and how to quantify global persistence in the environment?

Horseshoe crab spawning activity in Delaware Bay, USA, after harvest reduction: A mixed-model analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, David R.; Robinson, Timothy J.

2015-01-01

A Delaware Bay, USA, standardized survey of spawning horseshoe crabs, Limulus polyphemus, was carried out in 1999 − 2013 through a citizen science network. Previous trend analyses of the data were at the state (DE or NJ) or bay-wide levels. Here, an alternative mixed-model regression analysis was used to estimate trends in female and male spawning densities at the beach level (n = 26) with the objective of inferring their causes. For females, there was no overall trend and no single explanation applies to the temporal and spatial patterns in their densities. Individual beaches that initially had higher densities tended to experience a decrease, while beaches that initially had lower densities tended to experience an increase. As a result, densities of spawning females at the end of the study period were relatively similar among beaches, suggesting a redistribution of females among the beaches over the study period. For males, there was a positive overall trend in spawning abundance from 1999 to 2013, and this increase occurred broadly among beaches. Moreover, the beaches with below-average initial male density tended to have the greatest increases. Possible explanations for these patterns include harvest reduction, sampling artifact, habitat change, density-dependent habitat selection, or mate selection. The broad and significant increase in male spawning density, which occurred after enactment of harvest controls, is consistent with the harvest reduction explanation, but there is no single explanation for the temporal or spatial pattern in female densities. These results highlight the continued value of a citizen-science-based spawning survey in understanding horseshoe crab ecology and conservation.

Evolution of Diurnal Asymmetry of Surface Temperature over Different Climatic Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajendran, V.; C T, D.; Chakravorty, A.; AghaKouchak, A.

2016-12-01

The increase in drought, flood, diseases, crop failure etc. in the recent past has created an alarm amongst the researchers. One of the main reasons behind the intensification of these environmental hazards is the recent revelation of climate change, which is generally attributed to the human induced global warming, represented by an increase in global mean temperature. However, in order to formulate policies to mitigate and prevent the threats due to global warming, its key driving factors should be analysed at high spatial and temporal resolution. Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) is one of the indicators of global warming. The study of the evolution of the DTR is crucial, since it affects agriculture, health, ecosystems, transport, etc. Recent studies reveal that diurnal asymmetry has decreased globally, whereas a few regional studies report a contradictory pattern and attributed them to localized feedback processes. However, an evident conclusion cannot be made using the linear trend approaches employed in the past studies and the evolution of diurnal asymmetry should be investigated using non-linear trend approach for better perception. Hence, the regional evolution of DTR trend has been analysed using the spatially-temporally Multidimensional Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (MEEMD) method over India and observed a positive trend in over-all mean of DTR, while its rate of increase has declined in the recent decades. Further, the grids showing negative trend in DTR is observed in arid deserts and warm-temperate grasslands and positive trend over the west coast and sub-tropical forest in the North-East. This transition predominantly began from the west coast and is stretched with an increase in magnitude. These changes are more pronounced during winter and post-monsoon seasons, especially in the arid desert and warm-temperate grasslands, where the rate of increase in minimum temperature is higher than that of the maximum temperature. These analyses suggest that the DTR changes are influenced by both, local and global factors working in tandem, since a warmed up ocean produces contradictory DTR trends in different climatic zones. It can be inferred from this study that the impact of a global change in a region will depend on the regional climate.

Temporal characteristics of atmospheric ammonia and nitrogen dioxide over China based on emission data, satellite observations and atmospheric transport modeling since 1980

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Lei; Zhang, Xiuying; Xu, Wen; Liu, Xuejun; Li, Yi; Lu, Xuehe; Zhang, Yuehan; Zhang, Wuting

2017-08-01

China is experiencing intense air pollution caused in large part by anthropogenic emissions of reactive nitrogen (Nr). Atmospheric ammonia (NH3) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) are the most important precursors for Nr compounds (including N2O5, HNO3, HONO and particulate NO3- and NH4+) in the atmosphere. Understanding the changes in NH3 and NO2 has important implications for the regulation of anthropogenic Nr emissions and is a requirement for assessing the consequence of environmental impacts. We conducted the temporal trend analysis of atmospheric NH3 and NO2 on a national scale since 1980 based on emission data (during 1980-2010), satellite observation (for NH3 since 2008 and for NO2 since 2005) and atmospheric chemistry transport modeling (during 2008-2015).Based on the emission data, during 1980-2010, significant continuous increasing trends in both NH3 and NOx were observed in REAS (Regional Emission inventory in Asia, for NH3 0.17 and for NOx 0.16 kg N ha-1 yr-2) and EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research, for NH3 0.24 and for NOx 0.17 kg N ha-1 yr-2) over China. Based on the satellite data and atmospheric chemistry transport model (CTM) MOZART-4 (Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers, version 4), the NO2 columns over China increased significantly from 2005 to 2011 and then decreased significantly from 2011 to 2015; the satellite-retrieved NH3 columns from 2008 to 2014 increased at a rate of 2.37 % yr-1. The decrease in NO2 columns since 2011 may result from more stringent strategies taken to control NOx emissions during the 12th Five Year Plan, while no control policy has focused on NH3 emissions. Our findings provided an overall insight into the temporal trends of both NO2 and NH3 since 1980 based on emission data, satellite observations and atmospheric transport modeling. These findings can provide a scientific background for policy makers that are attempting to control atmospheric pollution in China. Moreover, the multiple datasets used in this study have implications for estimating long-term Nr deposition datasets to assess its impact on soil, forest, water and greenhouse balance.

Determinants and Temporal Trends of Perfluoroalkyl Substances in Pregnant Women: The Hokkaido Study on Environment and Children’s Health

PubMed Central

Tsai, Meng-Shan; Miyashita, Chihiro; Itoh, Sachiko; Bamai, Yu Ait; Goudarzi, Houman; Okada, Emiko; Kashino, Ikuko; Matsuura, Hideyuki; Kishi, Reiko

2018-01-01

Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are persistent bio-accumulative chemicals that impact the health of pregnant women and their children. PFAS derive from environmental and consumer products, which depend on human lifestyle, socioeconomic characteristics, and time variation. Here, we aimed to explore the temporal trends of PFAS in pregnant women and the characteristics related to maternal PFAS concentration. Our study is part of the Hokkaido Study on Environment and Children’s Health, the Hokkaido large-scale cohort that recruited pregnant women between 2003 and 2011. Blood samples were acquired from pregnant women during the third trimester to measure PFAS and cotinine concentrations. Maternal basic information was collected with a baseline structured questionnaire. Eleven PFAS were measured from 2123 samples with ultra-performance liquid chromatography coupled with triple quadrupole tandem mass spectrometry. Eight PFAS were above 80% detection rate and were included in the final analysis. We used multivariable linear regression to analyze the association of pregnant women characteristics with the levels of eight PFAS. The temporal trend of PFAS was observed in two periods (August 2003 to January 2006 and February 2006 to July 2012). The concentration of perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) significantly decreased from August 2003 to January 2006 and from February 2006 to July 2012. The concentrations of perfluorododecanoic acid (PFDoDA), perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnDA), and perfluorotridecanoic acid (PFTrDA) increased significantly between August 2003 and January 2006, whereas they decreased significantly between February 2006 and July 2012. Women with pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) >25 kg/m2 had lower PFUnDA, PFDoDA, and PFTrDA levels than did those with normal BMI (18.5–24.9 kg/m2). Pregnant women, who were active smokers (cotinine > 11.49 ng/mL), had higher PFOS than the non-smokers (cotinine < 0.22 ng/mL). Lower levels of PFHxS, PFOS, PFOA, PFNA, and PFDA were observed in women, who had given birth to more than one child. There were also significant positive associations between PFAS levels and annual income or maternal education. PFAS levels varied in women with higher pre-pregnancy BMI, active smoking status, higher education level and annual income. The causes of the individual PFAS differences should be explored in an independent study. PMID:29758015

Determinants and Temporal Trends of Perfluoroalkyl Substances in Pregnant Women: The Hokkaido Study on Environment and Children's Health.

PubMed

Tsai, Meng-Shan; Miyashita, Chihiro; Araki, Atsuko; Itoh, Sachiko; Bamai, Yu Ait; Goudarzi, Houman; Okada, Emiko; Kashino, Ikuko; Matsuura, Hideyuki; Kishi, Reiko

2018-05-14

Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are persistent bio-accumulative chemicals that impact the health of pregnant women and their children. PFAS derive from environmental and consumer products, which depend on human lifestyle, socioeconomic characteristics, and time variation. Here, we aimed to explore the temporal trends of PFAS in pregnant women and the characteristics related to maternal PFAS concentration. Our study is part of the Hokkaido Study on Environment and Children's Health, the Hokkaido large-scale cohort that recruited pregnant women between 2003 and 2011. Blood samples were acquired from pregnant women during the third trimester to measure PFAS and cotinine concentrations. Maternal basic information was collected with a baseline structured questionnaire. Eleven PFAS were measured from 2123 samples with ultra-performance liquid chromatography coupled with triple quadrupole tandem mass spectrometry. Eight PFAS were above 80% detection rate and were included in the final analysis. We used multivariable linear regression to analyze the association of pregnant women characteristics with the levels of eight PFAS. The temporal trend of PFAS was observed in two periods (August 2003 to January 2006 and February 2006 to July 2012). The concentration of perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) significantly decreased from August 2003 to January 2006 and from February 2006 to July 2012. The concentrations of perfluorododecanoic acid (PFDoDA), perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnDA), and perfluorotridecanoic acid (PFTrDA) increased significantly between August 2003 and January 2006, whereas they decreased significantly between February 2006 and July 2012. Women with pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) >25 kg/m² had lower PFUnDA, PFDoDA, and PFTrDA levels than did those with normal BMI (18.5⁻24.9 kg/m²). Pregnant women, who were active smokers (cotinine > 11.49 ng/mL), had higher PFOS than the non-smokers (cotinine < 0.22 ng/mL). Lower levels of PFHxS, PFOS, PFOA, PFNA, and PFDA were observed in women, who had given birth to more than one child. There were also significant positive associations between PFAS levels and annual income or maternal education. PFAS levels varied in women with higher pre-pregnancy BMI, active smoking status, higher education level and annual income. The causes of the individual PFAS differences should be explored in an independent study.

Fragmented patterns of flood change across the United States

PubMed Central

Hirsch, R. M.; Viglione, A.; Blöschl, G.

2016-01-01

Abstract Trends in the peak magnitude, frequency, duration, and volume of frequent floods (floods occurring at an average of two events per year relative to a base period) across the United States show large changes; however, few trends are found to be statistically significant. The multidimensional behavior of flood change across the United States can be described by four distinct groups, with streamgages experiencing (1) minimal change, (2) increasing frequency, (3) decreasing frequency, or (4) increases in all flood properties. Yet group membership shows only weak geographic cohesion. Lack of geographic cohesion is further demonstrated by weak correlations between the temporal patterns of flood change and large‐scale climate indices. These findings reveal a complex, fragmented pattern of flood change that, therefore, clouds the ability to make meaningful generalizations about flood change across the United States. PMID:27917010

Fragmented patterns of flood change across the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Archfield, Stacey A.; Hirsch, Robert M.; Viglione, A.; Blöschl, G.

2016-01-01

Trends in the peak magnitude, frequency, duration, and volume of frequent floods (floods occurring at an average of two events per year relative to a base period) across the United States show large changes; however, few trends are found to be statistically significant. The multidimensional behavior of flood change across the United States can be described by four distinct groups, with streamgages experiencing (1) minimal change, (2) increasing frequency, (3) decreasing frequency, or (4) increases in all flood properties. Yet group membership shows only weak geographic cohesion. Lack of geographic cohesion is further demonstrated by weak correlations between the temporal patterns of flood change and large-scale climate indices. These findings reveal a complex, fragmented pattern of flood change that, therefore, clouds the ability to make meaningful generalizations about flood change across the United States.

Influences of removing linear and nonlinear trends from climatic variables on temporal variations of annual reference crop evapotranspiration in Xinjiang, China.

PubMed

Li, Yi; Yao, Ning; Chau, Henry Wai

2017-08-15

Reference crop evapotranspiration (ET o ) is a key parameter in field irrigation scheduling, drought assessment and climate change research. ET o uses key prescribed (or fixed or reference) land surface parameters for crops. The linear and nonlinear trends in different climatic variables (CVs) affect ET o change. This research aims to reveal how ET o responds after the related CVs were linearly and nonlinearly detrended over 1961-2013 in Xinjiang, China. The ET o -related CVs included minimum (T min ), average (T ave ), and maximum air temperatures (T max ), wind speed at 2m (U 2 ), relative humidity (RH) and sunshine hour (n). ET o was calculated using the Penman-Monteith equation. A total of 29 ET o scenarios, including the original scenario, 14 scenarios in Group I (ET o was recalculated after removing linear trends from single or more CVs) and 14 scenarios in Group II (ET o was recalculated after removing nonlinear trends from the CVs), were generated. The influence of U 2 was stronger than influences of the other CVs on ET o for both Groups I and II either in northern, southern or the entirety of Xinjiang. The weak influences of increased T min , T ave and T max on increasing ET o were masked by the strong effects of decreased U 2 &n and increased RH on decreasing ET o . The effects of the trends in CVs, especially U 2 , on changing ET o were clearly shown. Without the general decreases of U 2 , ET o would have increased in the past 53years. Due to the non-monotone variations of the CVs and ET o , the results of nonlinearly detrending CVs on changing ET o in Group II should be more plausible than the results of linearly detrending CVs in Group I. The decreasing ET o led to a general relief in drought, which was indicated by the recalculated aridity index. Therefore, there would be a slightly lower risk of water utilization in Xinjiang, China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The impacts of emission trends of POPs on human concentration dynamics: Lessons learned from a longitudinal study in Norway (1979-2007).

PubMed

Nøst, Therese Haugdahl; Sandanger, Torkjel Manning; Nieboer, Evert; Odland, Jon Øyvind; Breivik, Knut

2017-06-01

In this short communication, our focus is on the relationship between human concentrations of select persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and environmental emissions. It is based on a longitudinal study (1979-2007) conducted in Norway. Our aim was to extract general insights from observed and predicted temporal trends in human concentrations of 49 POPs to assist in the design and interpretation of future monitoring studies. Despite considerable decline for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) since 1986, the sum of the targeted POPs increased from 1979 until 2001, with per- and polyfluorinated alkyl substances (PFASs) dominating recent blood burden measurements. Specifically, the time trends in serum concentrations of POPs, exemplified by PCB-153, 1,1'-(2,2,2-Trichloroethane-1,1-diyl)bis(4-chlorobenzene) (DDT) and perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS), resembled the trends in available data on their emissions, production or use. These observations suggest that interpretations of human biomonitoring data on persistent compounds must consider historic emissions, which likely vary spatially across the globe. Based on the different temporal trends observed across POP groups, it is evident that generalizations regarding temporal aspects have limitations. The discussion herein underscores the importance of understanding temporal variations in environmental emissions when designing and interpreting human biomonitoring studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Herbicides and degradates in shallow aquifers of Illinois: Spatial and temporal trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mills, P.C.; Kolpin, D.W.; Scribner, E.A.; Thurman, E.M.

2005-01-01

During the fall of 2000, the occurrence was examined of 16 herbicides and 13 herbicide degradates in samples from 55 wells in shallow aquifers underlying grain producing regions of Illinois. Herbicide compounds with concentrations above 0.05 ??g/L were detected in 56 percent of the samples. No concentrations exceeded regulatory drinking water standards. The six most frequently detected compounds were degradates. Water age was an important factor in determining vulnerability of ground water to transport of herbicide compounds. Unconsolidated aquifers, which were indicated to generally contain younger ground water than bedrock aquifers, had a higher occurrence of herbicides (73 percent of samples) than bedrock aquifers (22 percent). Temporal analysis to determine if changes in concentrations of selected herbicides and degradates could be observed over a near decadal period indicated a decrease in detection frequency (25 to 18 percent) between samplings in 1991 and 2000. Over this period, significant differences in concentrations were observed for atrazine (decrease) and total acetochlor (increase). The increase in acetochlor compound concentrations corresponds to an increase in acetochlor use during the study period, while the decrease in atrazine concentrations corresponds to relatively consistent use of atrazine. Changes in frequency of herbicide detection and concentration do not appear related to changes in land use near sampled wells.

Quantifying long-term population growth rates of threatened bull trout: challenges, lessons learned, and opportunities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Budy, Phaedra; Bowerman, Tracy; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Conner, Mary; Schaller, Howard

2017-01-01

Temporal symmetry models (TSM) represent advances in the analytical application of mark–recapture data to population status assessments. For a population of char, we employed 10 years of active and passive mark–recapture data to quantify population growth rates using different data sources and analytical approaches. Estimates of adult population growth rate were 1.01 (95% confidence interval = 0.84–1.20) using a temporal symmetry model (λTSM), 0.96 (0.68–1.34) based on logistic regressions of annual snorkel data (λA), and 0.92 (0.77–1.11) from redd counts (λR). Top-performing TSMs included an increasing time trend in recruitment (f) and changes in capture probability (p). There was only a 1% chance the population decreased ≥50%, and a 10% chance it decreased ≥30% (λMCMC; based on Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure). Size structure was stable; however, the adult population was dominated by small adults, and over the study period there was a decline in the contribution of large adults to total biomass. Juvenile condition decreased with increasing adult densities. Utilization of these different information sources provided a robust weight-of-evidence approach to identifying population status and potential mechanisms driving changes in population growth rates.

Spatial and temporal evapotranspiration trends after wildfire in semi-arid landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poon, Patrick K.; Kinoshita, Alicia M.

2018-04-01

In recent years climate change and other anthropogenic factors have contributed to increased wildfire frequency and size in western United States forests. This research focuses on the evaluation of spatial and temporal changes in evapotranspiration (ET) following the 2011 Las Conchas Fire in New Mexico (USA) using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance Model (SSEBop ET). Evapotranspiration is coupled with soil burn severity and analyzed for 16 watersheds for water years 2001-2014. An average annual decrease of 120 mm of ET is observed within the regions affected by the Las Conchas Fire, and conifers were converted to grassland a year after the fire. On average, the post-fire annual ET in high, moderate, and low burn severity is lower than pre-fire ET by approximately 103-352 mm, 97-304 mm, and 91-268 mm, respectively. The ratio of post-fire evapotranspiration to precipitation (ET/P) is statistically different from pre-fire conditions (α = 0.05) in nine of the watersheds. The largest decrease in ET is approximately 13-57 mm per month and is most prominent during the summer (April to September). The observed decrease in ET contributes to our understanding of changes in water yield following wildfires, which is of interest for accurately modeling and predicting hydrologic processes in semi-arid landscapes.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ahmed, Mohamed; Sultan, Mohamed; Wahr, John

Inter-annual trends in terrestrial water storage (TWS) were extracted from monthly (01/2003–09/2012) Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data acquired over Africa and correlated (in a geographic information system [GIS] environment) with relevant temporal remote sensing, geologic, and hydrologic datasets. Findings include the following: (1) large sectors of Africa are undergoing statistically significant TWS variations (+ 44 mm/yr to -15 mm/yr) due to natural and anthropogenic causes; (2) warming of the tropical Atlantic Ocean apparently intensified Atlantic monsoons and increased precipitation and TWS over western and central Africa; (3) warming in the central Indian Ocean decreased precipitation and TWS overmore » eastern Africa; (4) the high frequency of flooding events increased TWS over the Zambezi and Okavango basins; (5) extraction of fossil groundwater decreased TWS over the Saharan aquifers; (6) deforestation decreased TWS in three subbasins (Ubangi, Congo, and Sangha) of the Congo River Basin; and (7) the construction of dams increased TWS in the Blue Nile and Atbara subbasins. Given the 10 years of monthly GRACE data acquired on the subbasin scale across the globe, as well as the plans underway for deployment of a GRACE-FO and GRACE-II, using GRACE-derived TWS data should be considered an alternative, viable index for measuring temporal and spatial variations in water availability.« less

Influence of long-term trends of flooding on habitat conditions in lowland riparian wetlands under low antropopression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirosław-Świątek, Dorota; Grygoruk, Mateusz

2016-04-01

Temporal, volumetric and areal trends of flooding remain dominant factors shaping habitat conditions of riparian wetlands. In contemporary Europe, where the pristine extent of riparian wetlands strongly decreased due to antropopression and the flow regime of majority of rivers was decently modified in agricultural and hydropower purposes, valuable riparian habitats that remained in good ecological state require appropriate maintenance of floods. Even though multiple environmental regulations were implemented worldwide in order to mitigate negative effects of antropopression to flow regime and habitats, it is the climatic change that challenges riparian ecosystem management to the extent comparable (if not higher) than the direct human interventions. Wishing to detect probable influence of the ongoing climatic change on the flood regime one should search for catchment systems of a low antropopression, where the long term variability of flood extents, flood depths and recurrence intervals are likely to reflect climatic changes rather than human activity. In our study we analysed 60-years long time series of the discharge data of Biebrza river (NE Poland) that was found in numerous studies a reference in a temperate-continental European riparian and mire ecosystem research. Daily data of river discharge was used as boundary conditions in the WETFLOD - a developed integrated river-floodplain-groundwater flow model applied to the environment of Lower Biebrza Basin. The model was used to simulate and analyze trends of changes in flood extent and water depths in selected, well preserved vegetation patches namely the Caricetum appropinquatae, Caricetum gracilis, Phragmitetum communis and Glycerietum maximae. Temporal trends were analysed on the basis of distribution deciles of flood extents, depths and recurrence intervals. Study revealed that flood extents and flood depths in the first decade of the 21st century were decently different from the ones modeled for the second part of the 20th century. This is considered a challenge for habitat management as the most recent hydrological dynamics of these riparian habitats entail different temporal balance of oxic-anoxic conditions.

Patterns and predictors of antimicrobial resistance among Staphylococcus spp. from canine clinical cases presented at a veterinary academic hospital in South Africa.

PubMed

Qekwana, Daniel N; Oguttu, James W; Sithole, Fortune; Odoi, Agricola

2017-04-28

Antimicrobial resistance in staphylococci, often associated with treatment failure, is increasingly reported in veterinary medicine. The aim of this study was to investigate patterns and predictors of antimicrobial resistance among Staphylococcus spp. isolates from canine samples submitted to the bacteriology laboratory at the University of Pretoria academic veterinary hospital between 2007 and 2012. Retrospective data of 334 Staphylococcus isolates were used to calculate the proportion of samples resistant to 15 antimicrobial agents. The Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to investigate temporal trends and logistic regression models were used to investigate predictors of antimicrobial resistance in Staphylococcus aureus and Staphylococcus pseudintermedius. Results show that 98.2% (55/56) of the S. aureus isolates were resistant to at least one drug while 42.9% were multidrug resistant. Seventy-seven percent (214/278) of the S. pseudintermedius isolates were resistant to at least one drug and 25.9% (72/278) were multidrug resistant. Resistance to lincospectin was more common among S. aureus (64.3%) than S. pseudintermedius (38.9%). Similarly, resistance to clindamycin was higher in S. aureus (51.8%) than S. pseudintermedius (31.7%) isolates. There was a significant (p = 0.005) increase in S. aureus resistance to enrofloxacin over the study period. Similarly, S. pseudintermedius exhibited significant increasing temporal trend in resistance to trimethoprim-sulphamethoxazole (p = 0.004), clindamycin (p = 0.022) and orbifloxacin (p = 0.042). However, there was a significant decreasing temporal trend in the proportion of isolates resistant to doxycycline (p = 0.041), tylosin (p = 0.008), kanamycin (p = 0.017) and amoxicillin/clavulanic acid (p = 0.032). High levels of multidrug resistance and the increasing levels of resistance to sulphonamides, lincosamides and fluoroquinolones among Staphylococcus spp. isolates in this study are concerning. Future studies will need to investigate local drivers of antimicrobial resistance to better guide control efforts to address the problem.

Temporal trends of postinjury multiple-organ failure: Still resource intensive, morbid, and lethal

PubMed Central

Sauaia, Angela; Moore, Ernest E.; Johnson, Jeffrey L.; Chin, Theresa L.; Banerjee, Anirban; Sperry, Jason L.; Maier, Ronald V.; Burlew, C. Cothren

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND While the incidence of postinjury multiple-organ failure (MOF) has declined during the past decade, temporal trends of its morbidity, mortality, presentation patterns, and health care resources use have been inconsistent. The purpose of this study was to describe the evolving epidemiology of postinjury MOF from 2003 to 2010 in multiple trauma centers sharing standard treatment protocols. METHODS “Inflammation and Host Response to Injury Collaborative Program” institutions that enrolled more than 20 eligible patients per biennial during the 2003 to 2010 study period were included. The patients were aged 16 years to 90 years, sustained blunt torso trauma with hemorrhagic shock (systolic blood pressure < 90 mm Hg, base deficit ≥ 6 mEq/L, blood transfusion within the first 12 hours), but without severe head injury (motor Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] score < 4). MOF temporal trends (Denver MOF score > 3) were adjusted for admission risk factors (age, sex, body max index, Injury Severity Score [ISS], systolic blood pressure, and base deficit) using survival analysis. RESULTS A total of 1,643 patients from four institutions were evaluated. MOF incidence decreased over time (from 17% in 2003–2004 to 9.8% in 2009–2010). MOF-related death rate (33% in 2003–2004 to 36% in 2009–2010), intensive care unit stay, and mechanical ventilation duration did not change over the study period. Adjustment for admission risk factors confirmed the crude trends. MOF patients required much longer ventilation and intensive care unit stay, compared with non-MOF patients. Most of the MOF-related deaths occurred within 2 days of the MOF diagnosis. Lung and cardiac dysfunctions became less frequent (57.6% to 50.8%, 20.9% to 12.5%, respectively), but kidney and liver failure rates did not change (10.1% to 12.5%, 15.2% to 14.1%). CONCLUSION Postinjury MOF remains a resource-intensive, morbid, and lethal condition. Lung injury is an enduring challenge and should be a research priority. The lack of outcome improvements suggests that reversing MOF is difficult and prevention is still the best strategy. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Epidemiologic study, level III. PMID:24553523

Spatial and temporal analyses of metrics of tuberculosis infection in badgers (Meles meles) from the Republic of Ireland: Trends in apparent prevalence.

PubMed

Byrne, A W; Kenny, K; Fogarty, U; O'Keeffe, J J; More, S J; McGrath, G; Teeling, M; Martin, S W; Dohoo, I R

2015-12-01

Badgers are a wildlife host of Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis (bTB), and an important contributor to the epidemiology of bTB in cattle in Ireland and Britain. Repeated culling of badgers in high prevalence cattle bTB areas has been used in the Republic of Ireland as one tool to reduce intra- and interspecific transmission of M. bovis. We assessed factors that influenced infection prevalence of culled badgers from 2009 to 2012 (n=4948) where spatial, temporal and intrinsic factor data were available using multivariable modelling. Prevalence appeared higher in western areas than eastern areas of Ireland and badgers were more likely to be test-positive if caught at a sett (burrow system) which was close to other infected setts (spatial clustering of infection). There was a significant positive association between badger test-status and cattle prevalence of M. bovis infection at a spatial scale of 1km around setts. Badgers were more likely to be deemed test positive if they were male (OR: 1.9) or a parous female (OR: 1.7), compared to a female who had never conceived. Our results are consistent with different groups within badger populations having differential exposures and therefore infection risk (for example, parous vs. non-parous females). Furthermore, bTB clusters within the badger population, with greater risk to badgers in setts that are closest to other infected setts. The effective scale of the association of bTB risk between badger and cattle populations may be relatively large in Ireland. Our data indicate that the overall trend in prevalence of M. bovis infection in badgers has decreased in Ireland (P<0.001) while controlling for significant confounders over the study period, and follows a longer temporal trend from 2007 to 2013, where unadjusted apparent prevalence declined from 26% to 11% during 2007 to mid-2011, followed by a stable trend between 9 and 11% thereafter (n=10,267). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of internal variability on temperature and precipitation trends in large ensemble simulations by two climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Aiguo; Bloecker, Christine E.

2018-02-01

It is known that internal climate variability (ICV) can influence trends seen in observations and individual model simulations over a period of decades. This makes it difficult to quantify the forced response to external forcing. Here we analyze two large ensembles of simulations from 1950 to 2100 by two fully-coupled climate models, namely the CESM1 and CanESM2, to quantify ICV's influences on estimated trends in annual surface air temperature (Tas) and precipitation (P) over different time periods. Results show that the observed trends since 1979 in global-mean Tas and P are within the spread of the CESM1-simulated trends while the CanESM2 overestimates the historical changes, likely due to its deficiencies in simulating historical non-CO2 forcing. Both models show considerable spreads in the Tas and P trends among the individual simulations, and the spreads decrease rapidly as the record length increases to about 40 (50) years for global-mean Tas (P). Because of ICV, local and regional P trends may remain statistically insignificant and differ greatly among individual model simulations over most of the globe until the later part of the twenty-first century even under a high emissions scenario, while local Tas trends since 1979 are already statistically significant over many low-latitude regions and are projected to become significant over most of the globe by the 2030s. The largest influences of ICV come from the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation and polar sea ice. In contrast to the realization-dependent ICV, the forced Tas response to external forcing has a temporal evolution that is similar over most of the globe (except its amplitude). For annual precipitation, however, the temporal evolution of the forced response is similar (opposite) to that of Tas over many mid-high latitude areas and the ITCZ (subtropical regions), but close to zero over the transition zones between the regions with positive and negative trends. The ICV in the transient climate change simulations is slightly larger than that in the control run for P (and other related variables such as water vapor), but similar for Tas. Thus, the ICV for P from a control run may need to be scaled up in detection and attribution analyses.

Evaluation of a regional monitoring program's statistical power to detect temporal trends in forest health indicators

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perles, Stephanie J.; Wagner, Tyler; Irwin, Brian J.; Manning, Douglas R.; Callahan, Kristina K.; Marshall, Matthew R.

2014-01-01

Forests are socioeconomically and ecologically important ecosystems that are exposed to a variety of natural and anthropogenic stressors. As such, monitoring forest condition and detecting temporal changes therein remain critical to sound public and private forestland management. The National Parks Service’s Vital Signs monitoring program collects information on many forest health indicators, including species richness, cover by exotics, browse pressure, and forest regeneration. We applied a mixed-model approach to partition variability in data for 30 forest health indicators collected from several national parks in the eastern United States. We then used the estimated variance components in a simulation model to evaluate trend detection capabilities for each indicator. We investigated the extent to which the following factors affected ability to detect trends: (a) sample design: using simple panel versus connected panel design, (b) effect size: increasing trend magnitude, (c) sample size: varying the number of plots sampled each year, and (d) stratified sampling: post-stratifying plots into vegetation domains. Statistical power varied among indicators; however, indicators that measured the proportion of a total yielded higher power when compared to indicators that measured absolute or average values. In addition, the total variability for an indicator appeared to influence power to detect temporal trends more than how total variance was partitioned among spatial and temporal sources. Based on these analyses and the monitoring objectives of theVital Signs program, the current sampling design is likely overly intensive for detecting a 5 % trend·year−1 for all indicators and is appropriate for detecting a 1 % trend·year−1 in most indicators.

Evolution of Canada’s Boreal Forest Spatial Patterns as Seen from Space

PubMed Central

Pickell, Paul D.; Coops, Nicholas C.; Gergel, Sarah E.; Andison, David W.; Marshall, Peter L.

2016-01-01

Understanding the development of landscape patterns over broad spatial and temporal scales is a major contribution to ecological sciences and is a critical area of research for forested land management. Boreal forests represent an excellent case study for such research because these forests have undergone significant changes over recent decades. We analyzed the temporal trends of four widely-used landscape pattern indices for boreal forests of Canada: forest cover, largest forest patch index, forest edge density, and core (interior) forest cover. The indices were computed over landscape extents ranging from 5,000 ha (n = 18,185) to 50,000 ha (n = 1,662) and across nine major ecozones of Canada. We used 26 years of Landsat satellite imagery to derive annualized trends of the landscape pattern indices. The largest declines in forest cover, largest forest patch index, and core forest cover were observed in the Boreal Shield, Boreal Plain, and Boreal Cordillera ecozones. Forest edge density increased at all landscape extents for all ecozones. Rapidly changing landscapes, defined as the 90th percentile of forest cover change, were among the most forested initially and were characterized by four times greater decrease in largest forest patch index, three times greater increase in forest edge density, and four times greater decrease in core forest cover compared with all 50,000 ha landscapes. Moreover, approximately 18% of all 50,000 ha landscapes did not change due to a lack of disturbance. The pattern database results provide important context for forest management agencies committed to implementing ecosystem-based management strategies. PMID:27383055

Evolution of Canada's Boreal Forest Spatial Patterns as Seen from Space.

PubMed

Pickell, Paul D; Coops, Nicholas C; Gergel, Sarah E; Andison, David W; Marshall, Peter L

2016-01-01

Understanding the development of landscape patterns over broad spatial and temporal scales is a major contribution to ecological sciences and is a critical area of research for forested land management. Boreal forests represent an excellent case study for such research because these forests have undergone significant changes over recent decades. We analyzed the temporal trends of four widely-used landscape pattern indices for boreal forests of Canada: forest cover, largest forest patch index, forest edge density, and core (interior) forest cover. The indices were computed over landscape extents ranging from 5,000 ha (n = 18,185) to 50,000 ha (n = 1,662) and across nine major ecozones of Canada. We used 26 years of Landsat satellite imagery to derive annualized trends of the landscape pattern indices. The largest declines in forest cover, largest forest patch index, and core forest cover were observed in the Boreal Shield, Boreal Plain, and Boreal Cordillera ecozones. Forest edge density increased at all landscape extents for all ecozones. Rapidly changing landscapes, defined as the 90th percentile of forest cover change, were among the most forested initially and were characterized by four times greater decrease in largest forest patch index, three times greater increase in forest edge density, and four times greater decrease in core forest cover compared with all 50,000 ha landscapes. Moreover, approximately 18% of all 50,000 ha landscapes did not change due to a lack of disturbance. The pattern database results provide important context for forest management agencies committed to implementing ecosystem-based management strategies.

Trends and homogeneity of monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall over arid region of Rajasthan, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meena, Hari Mohan; Machiwal, Deepesh; Santra, Priyabrata; Moharana, Pratap Chandra; Singh, D. V.

2018-05-01

Knowledge of rainfall variability is important for regional-scale planning and management of water resources in agriculture. This study explores spatio-temporal variations, trends, and homogeneity in monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall series of 62 stations located in arid region of Rajasthan, India using 55 year (1957-2011) data. Box-whisker plots indicate presence of outliers and extremes in annual rainfall, which made the distribution of annual rainfall right-skewed. Mean and coefficient of variation (CV) of rainfall reveals a high inter-annual variability (CV > 200%) in the western portion where the mean annual rainfall is very low. A general gradient of the mean monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall is visible from northwest to southeast direction, which is orthogonal to the gradient of CV. The Sen's innovative trend test is found over-sensitive in evaluating statistical significance of the rainfall trends, while the Mann-Kendall test identifies significantly increasing rainfall trends in June and September. Rainfall in July shows prominently decreasing trends although none of them are found statistically significant. Monsoon and annual rainfall show significantly increasing trends at only four stations. The magnitude of trends indicates that the rainfall is increasing at a mean rate of 1.11, 2.85, and 2.89 mm year-1 in August, monsoon season, and annual series. The rainfall is found homogeneous over most of the area except for few stations situated in the eastern and northwest portions where significantly increasing trends are observed. Findings of this study indicate that there are few increasing trends in rainfall of this Indian arid region.

U.S. Geological Survey second national symposium on Water quality; abstracts of the technical sessions, Orlando, Florida, November 12-17, 1989

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pederson, G. L.; Smith, M.M.

1989-01-01

The U.S Geological Survey (USGS) compiled and analyzed existing hydrologic and water-quality data from over 200 stream and estuary stations of the Abemarle-Pamlico estuarine system (A/P) to identify long-term temporal and spatial trends. The dataset included seven stations of the USGS National Stream Quality Accounting Network, two stations of the National Atmospheric Precipitation Deposition monitoring network, stations of the N.C. Department of Natural Resources and Community Development, and stations from 25 reports by individual investigators. Regression-residuals analysis, the seasonal Kendall's Tau test for trends, and graphical analysis using annual box plots were employed to determine trends. Profound change has occurred in the water quality of the A/P area over the last 30 years. Analysis of water-quality data upstream from the estuaries indicates increases of discharge-adjusted values of specific conductance, alkalinity, phosphorous, hardness, chloride, and dissolved solids. In the estuaries, pH is increasing except in the Pamlico River, where it is decreasing. There is a generalized decrease in suspended inorganic material in the system. Salinities are decreasing for sections of the Pamlico River, and increasing for parts of Albemarle Sound. Nitrogen concentrations are decreasing except in the Pamlico River, where they are increasing. Phosphorus concentrations are increasing in the Pamlico River and decreasing elsewhere. Annual average data show that nitrogen is the limiting nutrient in the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers. Phosphorus is limiting in the rest of the area. Chlorophyll-a levels are increasing in parts of the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers and decreasing in parts of the Chowan River. To evaluate the effect of basin characteristics on water quality, linear correlation was used. Agricultural crop variables produced the most correlations with water-quality data. Fertilizer usage had little detectable relation to water quality in the study area. In the section of the Pamlico River near Aurora, relations between employment, road mileages, and water quality indicated effects of development in the area.

Spatio-temporal modelling of residential exposure to particulate matter and gaseous pollutants for the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Cohort

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nonnemacher, Michael; Jakobs, Hermann; Viehmann, Anja; Vanberg, Irene; Kessler, Christoph; Moebus, Susanne; Möhlenkamp, Stefan; Erbel, Raimund; Hoffmann, Barbara; Memmesheimer, Michael

2014-07-01

For the simultaneous analysis of short- and long-term effects of air pollution in the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Cohort a sophisticated exposure modelling was performed. The dispersion and chemistry transport model EURAD (European Air Pollution Dispersion) was used for the estimation of hourly concentrations of a number of pollutants for a horizontal grid with a cell size of 1 km² covering the whole study area (three large adjacent cities in a highly urbanized region in Western Germany) for the years 2000-2003 and 2006-2008. For each 1 km² cell we estimated the mean concentration by calculating daily means from the hourly concentrations modelled by the EURAD process. The modelled concentrations showed an overall tendency to decrease from 2001 to 2008 whereas the trend in the single grid cells and study period was inhomogeneous. Participant-related exposure slightly increased from 2001 to 2003 followed by a decrease from 2006 to 2008. The exposure modelling enables a very flexible exposure assessment compared to conventional modelling approaches which either use central monitoring or temporally static spatial contrasts. The modelling allows the calculation of an average exposure concentration for any place and time within the study region and study period with a high spatial and temporal resolution. This is important for the assessment of short-, medium and long-term effects of air pollution on human health in epidemiological studies.

Patterns and Trends of Liver Cancer Incidence Rates in Eastern and Southeastern Asian Countries (1983-2007) and Predictions to 2030.

PubMed

Wu, Jie; Yang, Shigui; Xu, Kaijin; Ding, Cheng; Zhou, Yuqing; Fu, Xiaofang; Li, Yiping; Deng, Min; Wang, Chencheng; Liu, Xiaoxiao; Li, Lanjuan

2018-05-01

We examined temporal trends in liver cancer incidence rates overall and by histological type from 1983 through 2007. We predict trends in liver cancer incidence rates through 2030 for selected Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries. Data on yearly liver cancer incident cases by age group and sex were drawn from 6 major selected Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries or regions with cancer registries available in the CI5plus database, including China, Japan, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR), the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. We also analyzed data for the United States and Australia for comparative purposes. Age-standardized incidence rates were calculated and plotted from 1983 through 2007. Numbers of new cases and incidence rates were predicted through 2030 by fitting and extrapolating age-period-cohort models. The incidence rates of liver cancer have been decreasing, and decreases will continue in all selected Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries, except for Thailand, whose liver cancer incidence rate will increase due to the increasing incidence rate of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas. Even though the incidence rates of liver cancer are predicted to decrease in most Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries, the burden, in terms of new cases, will continue to increase because of population growth and aging. Based on an analysis of data from cancer registries from Asian countries, incidence rates of liver cancer are expected to decrease through 2030 in most Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries. However, in Thailand, the incidence rate of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas is predicted to increase, so health education programs are necessary. Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fractionation and current time trends of PCB congeners: evolvement of distributions 1950-2010 studied using a global atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lammel, G.; Stemmler, I.

2012-05-01

PCBs are ubiquitous environmental pollutants expected to decline in abiotic environmental media in response to decreasing primary emissions since the 1970s. A coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with embedded dynamic sub-models for atmospheric aerosols and the marine biogeochemistry and air-surface exchange processes with soils, vegetation and the cryosphere is used to study the transport and fate of four PCB congeners covering a range of 3-7 chlorine atoms. The change of the geographic distribution of the PCB mixture reflects the sources and sinks' evolvement over time. Globally, secondary emissions (re-volatilisation from surfaces) are on the long term increasingly gaining importance over primary emissions. They are most important for congeners of medium hydrophobicity (5-6 chlorine atoms). Their levels are predicted to decrease slowest. Congeners' fractionation is characterized both geographically and temporally. It causes enrichment of the lighter, less persistent congeners and more delayed decreasing levels in high latitudes in response to decreasing emissions. Delivery of contaminants to high latitudes is predicted to be more efficient than previously suggested. The results suggest furthermore that the effectiveness of emission control measures may significantly vary among substances: trends of decline in abiotic environmental media do not only vary with latitude (slow in high latitudes), but do also show longitudinal gradients

Temporal changes in sulfate, chloride, and sodium concentrations in four eastern Pennsylvania streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barker, J.L.

1986-01-01

Trend analyses of 20 years or more of chemical quality and streamflow data for four streams in eastern Pennsylvania indicate that sulfate has decreased significantly in three of the four basins studied, while sodium and chloride have generally increased. The majority of chemical quality changes occurred in the late 1950 's and early 1960 's coincident with significant cultural changes. It is believed that these chemical quality changes are presently of little or no environmental consequence, as the concentrations are well within the range of those found in natural waters. Decreases in sulfate follow a regional trend concurrent with the conversion of home and industrial heating units from high to low sulfur coal, gas, and oil. The most significant decreases were observed in those basins severely affected by mine-drainage where pumpage has decreased significantly in the past 25 years, thereby further reducing the sulfur content of the streams. The observed increases in chloride and sodium are attributed to population increases and shifts from rural to suburban communities with concurrent increase in the percentage of the population using municipal waste treatment facilities and the increased use of salt on roadways. The concentrations of dissolved chloride, which are from two to three times higher in recent years, reach a peak in January, coincident with the application of salt to melt ice on the roadways. (USGS)

A 15-Year Review of Trends in Representation of Female Subjects in Islamic Bioethics Research.

PubMed

Hussain, Zeenat; Kuzian, Edyta; Hussain, Naveed

2017-02-01

Gender representation in Islamic bioethics research in the twenty-first century has not been studied. To study temporal trends in representation of female subjects in Islamic bioethics research, PubMed-listed publications on Islamic bioethics from years 2000 to 2014 were reviewed for gender participation in human subjects' research. There were temporal trends of increasing publications of Islamic bioethics-related human subjects' research (64 papers over 15 years; R 2  = 0.72; p < 0.0004). Female subjects were well represented with a trend toward increasing participation. This was true for women from Muslim-majority countries even in non-gender-focused studies over the past 15 years.

Instantaneous-to-daily GPP upscaling schemes based on a coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model: correcting the overestimation of GPP by directly using daily average meteorological inputs.

PubMed

Wang, Fumin; Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M; Black, T Andrew; Zhou, Bin

2014-11-01

Daily canopy photosynthesis is usually temporally upscaled from instantaneous (i.e., seconds) photosynthesis rate. The nonlinear response of photosynthesis to meteorological variables makes the temporal scaling a significant challenge. In this study, two temporal upscaling schemes of daily photosynthesis, the integrated daily model (IDM) and the segmented daily model (SDM), are presented by considering the diurnal variations of meteorological variables based on a coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model. The two models, as well as a simple average daily model (SADM) with daily average meteorological inputs, were validated using the tower-derived gross primary production (GPP) to assess their abilities in simulating daily photosynthesis. The results showed IDM closely followed the seasonal trend of the tower-derived GPP with an average RMSE of 1.63 g C m(-2) day(-1), and an average Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E) of 0.87. SDM performed similarly to IDM in GPP simulation but decreased the computation time by >66%. SADM overestimated daily GPP by about 15% during the growing season compared to IDM. Both IDM and SDM greatly decreased the overestimation by SADM, and improved the simulation of daily GPP by reducing the RMSE by 34 and 30%, respectively. The results indicated that IDM and SDM are useful temporal upscaling approaches, and both are superior to SADM in daily GPP simulation because they take into account the diurnally varying responses of photosynthesis to meteorological variables. SDM is computationally more efficient, and therefore more suitable for long-term and large-scale GPP simulations.

The effect of length and starting year on trend analyses of temperatures in Spanish mainland (1951-2010). A general approach (I)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez Hidalgo, Jose Carlos; Peña Angulo, Dhais; Salinas Solé, Celia; Jiménez Castañeda, Azucena; Brunetti, Michele

2017-04-01

One of the most interesting issues in climate analyses of trend is the comparison between different results. This is a difficult task not only because of different spatial density of information, or data format (raster or station), but also because they usually analyze different temporal periods, sometimes differing only in few years, and trend of time (climate) variables can vary dramatically accordingly length of period and starting year (Lüdecke et al., 2011). In this poster we present the global frame of an approach that during the last years has attracted the attention of some researchers: the moving windows analyze. Basically it consists in calculate the trends for all the possible period, combining length and starting year in any given series of climate variables. The analysis obviously only can be applied to one series of data (i.e. one station), and the results are usually presented in triangular diagrams. This approach has been applied to regional, national or global series both to temperature and precipitation (Brunetti et al., 2006; Liebmann et al., 2010; González.Hidalgo et al. 2010, 2016, between others). The spatial differences in the behavior of temperatures and precipitation during the last year has been noticed in many research, particularly when high density of stations has been used, so the question is how to use this approach in dozens, hundreds or thousands of stations? We present in this poster example of graphical analyses of moving windows, how to read the graphs, the possibility that this analyses offers, etc. In a sequence of posters the analyze is applied to a high-resolution grid of monthly temperatures of Spanish mainland, MOTEDAS dataset (1951-2010), at season and monthly temporal scale (see Winter-II, Spring-III, Summer-IV and Autumn-V Posters). To apply the approach we have used an ergodic transformations from time (each temporal series) to space (all the series in the same period), i.e. we present the results of season and monthly mean values of Tmax and Tmin trends by showing a collection of maps accordingly changes in period length and starting year. In the sequence of seasons (see Poster II-III-IV and V), we have selected particularly a decreasing length period from triangular diagram, i.e. from 1951-2010 until 1991- 2010 (the hypotenuse of graphical triangle), thus, we analyze all the possible trends in periods between 60-years and 20-years (considering that 20 years represent a minimum period for detect any climate signal).

Identify temporal trend of air temperature and its impact on forest stream flow in Lower Mississippi River Alluvial Valley using wavelet analysis

Treesearch

Ying Ouyang; Prem B. Parajuli; Yide Li; Theodor D. Leininger; Gary Feng

2017-01-01

Characterization of stream flow is essential to water resource management, water supply planning, environmental protection, and ecological restoration; while air temperature variation due to climate change can exacerbate stream flow and add instability to the flow. In this study, the wavelet analysis technique was employed to identify temporal trend of air temperature...

Using nestling plasma to assess long-term spatial and temporal concentrations of organochlorine compounds in bald eagles within Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota, USA

Treesearch

H. Tyler Pittman; William W. Bowerman; Leland H. Grim; Teryl G. Grubb; William C. Bridges; Michael R. Wierda

2015-01-01

The bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) population at Voyageurs National Park (VNP) provides an opportunity to assess long-term temporal and spatial trends of persistent environmental contaminants. Nestling bald eagle plasma samples collected from 1997 to 2010 were analyzed for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides. Trends of total PCBs,...

Deteriorating water clarity in shallow waters: Evidence from long term MODIS and in-situ observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Kun; Zhang, Yunlin; Zhu, Guangwei; Qin, Boqiang; Pan, Delu

2018-06-01

Water clarity (Secchi disk depth: SDD), as a proxy of water transparency, provides important information on the light availability to the water or lake ecosystem. Shallow lakes have been experienced dramatic environmental and climatic change. This study demonstrated using combination of long-term MODIS and in-situ measurements to track the dynamics of SDD with these environmental and climate changes in shallow water environments. We selected a typical turbid shallow Lake Taihu as our case study. Based on MODIS-Aqua data, an empirical model for estimating SDD was developed and validated. Subsequently, we employed the proposed model to derive the spatial and temporal SDD distribution patterns of Lake Taihu from 2003 to 2015. Combining MODIS-derived SDD time series of 2003-2015 and long-term in-situ SDD observations dated back to 1993, we elucidated SDD long-term variation trends and driving mechanism. Deteriorating water clarity from the long-term SDD observations indicated that Lake Taihu became more and more turbid and water quality was decreasing. Increasing in cyanobacterial bloom area, as a result of decreasing in wind speed and eutrophication, may partially be responsible for the decreasing trend. A predicted future decrease in the wind speed in Lake Taihu region could enhance the formation of cyanobacterial blooms and consequently lead to a further decrease in water clarity. This study suggested that coupling remote sensing monitoring and long-term in-situ observations could provide robust evidence and new insights to elucidate long-term dynamics in aquatic ecosystem evolution.

The intra-day dynamics of affect, self-esteem, tiredness, and suicidality in Major Depression.

PubMed

Crowe, Eimear; Daly, Michael; Delaney, Liam; Carroll, Susan; Malone, Kevin M

2018-02-21

Despite growing interest in the temporal dynamics of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), we know little about the intra-day fluctuations of key symptom constructs. In a study of momentary experience, the Experience Sampling Method captured the within-day dynamics of negative affect, positive affect, self-esteem, passive suicidality, and tiredness across clinical MDD (N= 31) and healthy control groups (N= 33). Ten symptom measures were taken per day over 6 days (N= 2231 observations). Daily dynamics were modeled via intra-day time-trends, variability, and instability in symptoms. MDD participants showed significantly increased variability and instability in negative affect, positive affect, self-esteem, and suicidality. Significantly different time-trends were found in positive affect (increased diurnal variation and an inverted U-shaped pattern in MDD, compared to a positive linear trend in controls) and tiredness (decreased diurnal variation in MDD). In the MDD group only, passive suicidality displayed a negative linear trend and self-esteem displayed a quadratic inverted U trend. MDD and control participants thus showed distinct dynamic profiles in all symptoms measured. As well as the overall severity of symptoms, intra-day dynamics appear to define the experience of MDD symptoms. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes over Canada and their connections to large-scale climate patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Gan, T. Y.; Tan, X.

2017-12-01

In the past few decades, there have been more extreme climate events around the world, and Canada has also suffered from numerous extreme precipitation events. In this paper, trend analysis, change point analysis, probability distribution function, principal component analysis and wavelet analysis were used to investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of extreme precipitation in Canada. Ten extreme precipitation indices were calculated using long-term daily precipitation data from 164 gauging stations. Several large-scale climate patterns such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Pacific-North American (PNA), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were selected to analyze the relationships between extreme precipitation and climate indices. Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), specific humidity, and surface temperature were employed to investigate the potential causes of the trends.The results show statistically significant positive trends for most indices, which indicate increasing extreme precipitation. The majority of indices display more increasing trends along the southern border of Canada while decreasing trends dominate in the central Canadian Prairies (CP). In addition, strong connections are found between the extreme precipitation and climate indices and the effects of climate pattern differ for each region. The seasonal CAPE, specific humidity, and temperature are found to be closely related to Canadian extreme precipitation.

Spatio-temporal monitoring of vegetation phenology in the dry sub-humid region of Nigeria using time series of AVHRR NDVI and TAMSAT datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osunmadewa, Babatunde Adeniyi; Gebrehiwot, Worku Zewdie; Csaplovics, Elmar; Adeofun, Olabinjo Clement

2018-03-01

Time series data are of great importance for monitoring vegetation phenology in the dry sub-humid regions where change in land cover has influence on biomass productivity. However few studies have inquired into examining the impact of rainfall and land cover change on vegetation phenology. This study explores Seasonal Trend Analysis (STA) approach in order to investigate overall greenness, peak of annual greenness and timing of annual greenness in the seasonal NDVI cycle. Phenological pattern for the start of season (SOS) and end of season (EOS) was also examined across different land cover types in four selected locations. A significant increase in overall greenness (amplitude 0) and a significant decrease in other greenness trend maps (amplitude 1 and phase 1) was observed over the study period. Moreover significant positive trends in overall annual rainfall (amplitude 0) was found which follows similar pattern with vegetation trend. Variation in the timing of peak of greenness (phase 1) was seen in the four selected locations, this indicate a change in phenological trend. Additionally, strong relationship was revealed by the result of the pixel-wise regression between NDVI and rainfall. Change in vegetation phenology in the study area is attributed to climatic variability than anthropogenic activities.

Dynamic compositional modeling of pedestrian crash counts on urban roads in Connecticut.

PubMed

Serhiyenko, Volodymyr; Ivan, John N; Ravishanker, Nalini; Islam, Md Saidul

2014-03-01

Uncovering the temporal trend in crash counts provides a good understanding of the context for pedestrian safety. With a rareness of pedestrian crashes it is impossible to investigate monthly temporal effects with an individual segment/intersection level data, thus the time dependence should be derived from the aggregated level data. Most previous studies have used annual data to investigate the differences in pedestrian crashes between different regions or countries in a given year, and/or to look at time trends of fatal pedestrian injuries annually. Use of annual data unfortunately does not provide sufficient information on patterns in time trends or seasonal effects. This paper describes statistical methods uncovering patterns in monthly pedestrian crashes aggregated on urban roads in Connecticut from January 1995 to December 2009. We investigate the temporal behavior of injury severity levels, including fatal (K), severe injury (A), evident minor injury (B), and non-evident possible injury and property damage only (C and O), as proportions of all pedestrian crashes in each month, taking into consideration effects of time trend, seasonal variations and VMT (vehicle miles traveled). This type of dependent multivariate data is characterized by positive components which sum to one, and occurs in several applications in science and engineering. We describe a dynamic framework with vector autoregressions (VAR) for modeling and predicting compositional time series. Combining these predictions with predictions from a univariate statistical model for total crash counts will then enable us to predict pedestrian crash counts with the different injury severity levels. We compare these predictions with those obtained from fitting separate univariate models to time series of crash counts at each injury severity level. We also show that the dynamic models perform better than the corresponding static models. We implement the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) approach to enable fast Bayesian posterior computation. Taking CO injury severity level as a baseline for the compositional analysis, we conclude that there was a noticeable shift in the proportion of pedestrian crashes from injury severity A to B, while the increase for injury severity K was extremely small over time. This shift to the less severe injury level (from A to B) suggests that the overall safety on urban roads in Connecticut is improving. In January and February, there was some increase in the proportions for levels A and B over the baseline, indicating a seasonal effect. We found evidence that an increase in VMT would result in a decrease of proportions over the baseline for all injury severity levels. Our dynamic model uncovered a decreasing trend in all pedestrian crash counts before April 2005, followed by a noticeable increase and a flattening out until the end of the fitting period. This appears to be largely due to the behavior of injury severity level A pedestrian crashes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal Trends and Pattern Changes of Short- and Medium-Chain Chlorinated Paraffins in Marine Mammals from the South China Sea over the Past Decade.

PubMed

Zeng, Lixi; Lam, James C W; Wang, Yawei; Jiang, Guibin; Lam, Paul K S

2015-10-06

Temporal trends of short- (SCCPs) and medium-chain chlorinated paraffins (MCCPs) were examined in blubber samples of 50 finless porpoises (Neophocaena phocaenoides) and 25 Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) collected from the South China Sea between 2004 and 2014. Elevated levels of SCCPs and MCCPs were detected in all blubber samples of both cetacean species. Concentrations of SCCPs ranged from 280 to 3900 ng·g(-1) dry weight (dw) in porpoises and from 430 to 9100 ng·g(-1) dw in dolphins, while concentrations of MCCPs ranged from 320 to 8600 ng·g(-1) dw in porpoises and from 530 to 23 000 ng·g(-1) dw in dolphins. Significantly higher concentrations were present in dolphins than porpoises due to their exposure levels in their living habitats. Strongly linear correlations existed between SCCPs and MCCPs, but there were no significant concentration differences between the genders of the two cetacean species in the same sampling year. Significantly temporal increasing trends of ∑SCCPs and ∑MCCPs have been observed in both porpoise and dolphin samples over the past decade, which reflect the influence of histories of production and usage on the bioaccumulation of CPs in marine mammals in China. An apparent temporal shift trend from SCCPs to MCCPs was also observed in CP accumulation profiles. Complex environmental fractionation from localized sources in the study region via atmospheric transport, oceanic/offshore water transport, and trophic transfer have resulted in different CP accumulation levels and homologue patterns in the two cetacean species. This is the first report of systematic temporal trends of SCCPs and MCCPs in marine mammals.

Estimating terrestrial water storage changes in the Tarim River Basin using GRACE data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Kefei; Li, Xia

2017-12-01

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) plays a fundamental role in the arid Tarim River Basin, which is mainly fed by glacier and snow melt water. However, the significant scarcity of ground-based observations, especially in the high-altitude mountain areas, limits our understanding of TWS changes in this region. In this study, TWS variations in the Tarim River Basin were estimated using monthly GRACE Level 2 Release 5 (RL05) products from 2002 to August 2015. The GRACE results were validated against outputs of Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) including spatial and temporal correlation analysis. The correlation between the regional TWS time-series of GRACE and GLDAS is 0.7777. It was found that GRACE TWS shows a slightly decreasing trend of -1.4069 ± 0.5060 mm yr-1 in the entire Tarim River Basin during the study period and a significant spatial difference over the study area. An apparent decreasing trend in Tien Shan and the Taklamakan Desert, and a significant increasing trend in the Kunlun Mountains and eastern Pamirs Plateau were also detected. Moreover, seasonal analysis of regional TWS time-series, precipitation and the 0 °C isotherm height in summer showed that detrended TWS variations were consistent with precipitation while long-term trends of TWS were contrary to that of the 0 °C isotherm height in summer. It implied that the interannual TWS variations were dominated by precipitation and the long-term trend of TWS changes was affected by changes of the 0 °C isotherm height in summer. This information could enrich our knowledge about water storage changes, including glacier mass balance and groundwater, and its response to climate change in this vast but sparse in-situ measurements area.

Trends in preterm birth and perinatal mortality among singletons: United States, 1989 through 2000.

PubMed

Ananth, Cande V; Joseph, K S; Oyelese, Yinka; Demissie, Kitaw; Vintzileos, Anthony M

2005-05-01

Despite the recent increase in preterm birth in the United States, trends in preterm birth subtypes have not been adequately examined. We examined trends in preterm birth among singletons following ruptured membranes, medical indications, and spontaneous preterm birth and evaluated the impact of these trends on perinatal mortality. A population-based, retrospective cohort study comprising 46,375,578 women (16% blacks) who delivered singleton births in the United States, 1989 through 2000, was performed. Rates of preterm birth (< 37 weeks), their subtypes, and associated perinatal mortality (stillbirths at >/= 22 weeks plus neonatal deaths within 28 days), before and after adjustment for potential confounders, were derived from ecological logistic regression models. Preterm birth rates increased by 14% (95% confidence interval 13-15%) among whites from 8.3% to 9.4% and decreased by 15% (95% confidence interval 14-16%) among blacks from 18.5% to 16.2% between 1989 and 2000. Among whites, preterm birth following ruptured membranes declined by 23%, medically indicated preterm birth increased by 55%, and spontaneous preterm birth increased by 3%. Among blacks, preterm birth following ruptured membranes declined by 37%, medically indicated preterm birth increased by 32%, and spontaneous preterm birth decreased by 27%. The largest decline in perinatal mortality among whites was associated with increases in medically indicated preterm birth, whereas the largest decline in perinatal mortality among blacks was associated with declines in preterm birth following ruptured membranes and spontaneous preterm birth. Temporal trends in preterm birth varied substantially based on underlying subtype and maternal race. The recent increase in medically indicated preterm birth was associated with a favorable reduction in perinatal mortality.

A method to assess the inter-annual weather-dependent variability in air pollution concentration and deposition based on weather typing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pleijel, Håkan; Grundström, Maria; Karlsson, Gunilla Pihl; Karlsson, Per Erik; Chen, Deliang

2016-02-01

Annual anomalies in air pollutant concentrations, and deposition (bulk and throughfall) of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium, in the Gothenburg region, south-west Sweden, were correlated with optimized linear combinations of the yearly frequency of Lamb Weather Types (LWTs) to determine the extent to which the year-to-year variation in pollution exposure can be partly explained by weather related variability. Air concentrations of urban NO2, CO, PM10, as well as O3 at both an urban and a rural monitoring site, and the deposition of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium for the period 1997-2010 were included in the analysis. Linear detrending of the time series was performed to estimate trend-independent anomalies. These estimated anomalies were subtracted from observed annual values. Then the statistical significance of temporal trends with and without LWT adjustment was tested. For the pollutants studied, the annual anomaly was well correlated with the annual LWT combination (R2 in the range 0.52-0.90). Some negative (annual average [NO2], ammonia bulk deposition) or positive (average urban [O3]) temporal trends became statistically significant (p < 0.05) when the LWT adjustment was applied. In all the cases but one (NH4 throughfall, for which no temporal trend existed) the significance of temporal trends became stronger with LWT adjustment. For nitrate and ammonium, the LWT based adjustment explained a larger fraction of the inter-annual variation for bulk deposition than for throughfall. This is probably linked to the longer time scale of canopy related dry deposition processes influencing throughfall being explained to a lesser extent by LWTs than the meteorological factors controlling bulk deposition. The proposed novel methodology can be used by authorities responsible for air pollution management, and by researchers studying temporal trends in pollution, to evaluate e.g. the relative importance of changes in emissions and weather variability in annual air pollution exposure.

Capturing public interest toward new tools for controlling human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection exploiting data from Google Trends.

PubMed

Mahroum, Naim; Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi; Brigo, Francesco; Waknin, Roy; Sharif, Kassem; Mahagna, Hussein; Amital, Howard; Watad, Abdulla

2018-04-01

Human immunodeficiency virus vaccination and pre-exposure prophylaxis represent two different emerging preventive tools. Google Trends was used to assess the public interest toward these tools in terms of digital activities. Worldwide web searches concerning the human immunodeficiency virus vaccine represented 0.34 percent, 0.03 percent, and 46.97 percent of human immunodeficiency virus, acquired immune deficiency syndrome, and human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome treatment-related Google Trends queries, respectively. Concerning temporal trends, digital activities were shown to increase from 0 percent as of 1 January 2004 percent to 46 percent as of 8 October 2017 with two spikes observed in May and July 2012, coinciding with the US Food and Drug Administration approval. Bursts in search number and volume were recorded as human immunodeficiency virus vaccine trials emerged. This search topic has decreased in the past decade in parallel to the increase in Truvada-related topics. Concentrated searches were noticed among African countries with high human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome prevalence. Stakeholders should take advantage of public interest especially in preventive medicine in high disease burden countries.

Multi-Decadal Surface Water Dynamics in North American Tundra

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carroll, Mark L.; Loboda, Tatiana V.

2017-01-01

Over the last several decades, warming in the Arctic has outpaced the already impressive increases in global mean temperatures. The impact of these increases in temperature has been observed in a multitude of ecological changes in North American tundra including changes in vegetative cover, depth of active layer, and surface water extent. The low topographic relief and continuous permafrost create an ideal environment for the formation of small water bodies - a definitive feature of tundra surface. In this study, water bodies in Nunavut territory in northern Canada were mapped using a long-term record of remotely sensed observations at 30 meters spatial resolution from the Landsat suite of instruments. The temporal trajectories of water extent between 1985 and 2015 were assessed. Over 675,000 water bodies have been identified over the 31-year study period with over 168,000 showing a significant (probability is less than 0.05) trend in surface area. Approximately 55 percent of water bodies with a significant trend were increasing in size while the remaining 45 percent were decreasing in size. The overall net trend for water bodies with a significant trend is 0.009 hectares per year per water body.

In-depth analysis of accidental oil spills from tankers in the context of global spill trends from all sources.

PubMed

Burgherr, Peter

2007-02-09

This study gives a global overview of accidental oil spills from all sources (> or =700t) for the period 1970-2004, followed by a detailed examination of trends in accidental tanker spills. The present analysis of the number and volume of tanker spills includes temporal and spatial spill trends, aspects of spill size distribution as well as trends of key factors (i.e., flag state, hull type, tanker age, accident cause and sensitivity of location). Results show that the total number and volume of tanker spills have significantly decreased since the 1970s, which is in contrast to increases in maritime transport of oil and to popular perceptions following recent catastrophic events. However, many spills still occur in ecologically sensitive locations because the major maritime transport routes often cross the boundaries of the Large Marine Ecosystems, but the substantially lower total spill volume is an important contribution to potentially reduce overall ecosystem impacts. In summary, the improvements achieved in the past decades have been the result of a set of initiatives and regulations implemented by governments, international organizations and the shipping industry.

Feasibility of using the National Marine Mammal Tissue Bank for retrospective exploratory studies of perfluorinated alkyl acids.

PubMed

Lynch, Jennifer M; Ragland, Jared M; Reagen, William K; Wolf, Susan T; Malinsky, Michelle D; Ellisor, Michael B; Moors, Amanda J; Pugh, Rebecca S; Reiner, Jessica L

2018-05-15

Perfluorinated alkyl acids (PFAAs) have been used for 50+ years in materials such as stain-resistant treatments for paper and clothing, lubricants, and foam fire extinguishers. PFAAs are characterized by a fully fluorinated alkyl chain with a terminal acid group. Their long half-lives and ubiquitous environmental distribution create considerable concern for wildlife and human exposure. There is interest in examining temporal trends of PFAAs using the National Marine Mammal Tissue Bank (NMMTB), but NMMTB tissues are frozen and cryohomogenized in polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE)-based materials. Because PTFE supplies may leach PFAAs into samples, this study mimicked collection, processing and storage steps of NMMTB samples and measured PFAA leaching to determine the feasibility of using this sample archive for PFAA temporal trends. We also explored concentrations in Atlantic white-sided dolphin (Lagenorhynchus acutus, WSDs) and rough-toothed dolphin (Steno bredanensis, RTDs) blubber (n=3 and 0) and liver (n=48 and 12, respectively). The materials used in NMMTB protocols may add up to 0.968ng/g perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), 0.090ng/g perfluorononanoic acid (PNFA), and 0.221ng/g perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) to each archived sample. Leaching of PFNA and PFOS from supplies compared to dolphin levels was negligible, but PFOA contributions were substantially higher than levels found in most dolphin liver samples. Therefore, monitoring PFOA temporal trends from the NMMTB would require careful consideration. RTDs had significantly higher levels of PFOS and PFNA than WSDs. Both species have similar life history, trophic status, and foraging behaviors in deep pelagic waters, so differences could be from latitudinal variation in contamination. RTDs stranded in Florida; WSDs stranded farther north mostly in Massachusetts. Juveniles had significantly higher levels of PFOS and PFNA than adults in both species, suggesting growth dilution as they approach maturity. PFOS significantly decreased after 2001 in both species as expected based on changes in production. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Assessing spatio-temporal variability and trends in modelled and measured Greenland Ice Sheet albedo (2000-2013)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, P. M.; Tedesco, M.; Fettweis, X.; van de Wal, R. S. W.; Smeets, C. J. P. P.; van den Broeke, M. R.

2014-12-01

Accurate measurements and simulations of Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface albedo are essential, given the role of surface albedo in modulating the amount of absorbed solar radiation and meltwater production. In this study, we assess the spatio-temporal variability of GrIS albedo during June, July, and August (JJA) for the period 2000-2013. We use two remote sensing products derived from data collected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), as well as outputs from the Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale (MAR) regional climate model (RCM) and data from in situ automatic weather stations. Our results point to an overall consistency in spatio-temporal variability between remote sensing and RCM albedo, but reveal a difference in mean albedo of up to ~0.08 between the two remote sensing products north of 70° N. At low elevations, albedo values simulated by the RCM are positively biased with respect to remote sensing products by up to ~0.1 and exhibit low variability compared with observations. We infer that these differences are the result of a positive bias in simulated bare ice albedo. MODIS albedo, RCM outputs, and in situ observations consistently indicate a decrease in albedo of -0.03 to -0.06 per decade over the period 2003-2013 for the GrIS ablation area. Nevertheless, satellite products show a decline in JJA albedo of -0.03 to -0.04 per decade for regions within the accumulation area that is not confirmed by either the model or in situ observations. These findings appear to contradict a previous study that found an agreement between in situ and MODIS trends for individual months. The results indicate a need for further evaluation of high elevation albedo trends, a reconciliation of MODIS mean albedo at high latitudes, and the importance of accurately simulating bare ice albedo in RCMs.

Volumetric Trends Associated with MR-guided Stereotactic Laser Amygdalohippocampectomy in Mesial Temporal Lobe Epilepsy

PubMed Central

Patel, Nitesh V; Sundararajan, Sri; Keller, Irwin; Danish, Shabbar

2018-01-01

Objective: Magnetic resonance (MR)-guided stereotactic laser amygdalohippocampectomy is a minimally invasive procedure for the treatment of refractory epilepsy in patients with mesial temporal sclerosis. Limited data exist on post-ablation volumetric trends associated with the procedure. Methods: 10 patients with mesial temporal sclerosis underwent MR-guided stereotactic laser amygdalohippocampectomy. Three independent raters computed ablation volumes at the following time points: pre-ablation (PreA), immediate post-ablation (IPA), 24 hours post-ablation (24PA), first follow-up post-ablation (FPA), and greater than three months follow-up post-ablation (>3MPA), using OsiriX DICOM Viewer (Pixmeo, Bernex, Switzerland). Statistical trends in post-ablation volumes were determined for the time points. Results: MR-guided stereotactic laser amygdalohippocampectomy produces a rapid rise and distinct peak in post-ablation volume immediately following the procedure. IPA volumes are significantly higher than all other time points. Comparing individual time points within each raters dataset (intra-rater), a significant difference was seen between the IPA time point and all others. There was no statistical difference between the 24PA, FPA, and >3MPA time points. A correlation analysis demonstrated the strongest correlations at the 24PA (r=0.97), FPA (r=0.95), and 3MPA time points (r=0.99), with a weaker correlation at IPA (r=0.92). Conclusion: MR-guided stereotactic laser amygdalohippocampectomy produces a maximal increase in post-ablation volume immediately following the procedure, which decreases and stabilizes at 24 hours post-procedure and beyond three months follow-up. Based on the correlation analysis, the lower inter-rater reliability at the IPA time point suggests it may be less accurate to assess volume at this time point. We recommend post-ablation volume assessments be made at least 24 hours post-selective ablation of the amygdalohippocampal complex (SLAH).

Modeling fatigue.

PubMed

Sumner, Walton; Xu, Jin Zhong

2002-01-01

The American Board of Family Practice is developing a patient simulation program to evaluate diagnostic and management skills. The simulator must give temporally and physiologically reasonable answers to symptom questions such as "Have you been tired?" A three-step process generates symptom histories. In the first step, the simulator determines points in time where it should calculate instantaneous symptom status. In the second step, a Bayesian network implementing a roughly physiologic model of the symptom generates a value on a severity scale at each sampling time. Positive, zero, and negative values represent increased, normal, and decreased status, as applicable. The simulator plots these values over time. In the third step, another Bayesian network inspects this plot and reports how the symptom changed over time. This mechanism handles major trends, multiple and concurrent symptom causes, and gradually effective treatments. Other temporal insights, such as observations about short-term symptom relief, require complimentary mechanisms.

Temporal and spatial trends of total petroleum hydrocarbons and heavy metals in the surface sediment of Caofeidian Sea Area, China from 2011 to 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Wei

2018-05-01

The temporal and spatial distribution of total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) and four heavy metals in the surface sediments of Caofeidian Sea Area during 2011–2016 was investigated. The sediment concentration of TPH, Cu, Zn, Pb and Cd were 10.07-186.4 mg/L, 16.5-84.9 mg/L, 11.1-135 mg/L, 6.8-24.6 mg/L, and 0.07-0.199 mg/L, respectively. The pollution level in Caofeidian sea area is lower than those in other area in China. These results reached the highest marine sediment quality standards in China, indicating that the sediment was fairly clean. In addition, TPH at all stations decreased during 2011-2016. The highest values obtained were at stations near the port areas and estuary region.

Changes in daily and monthly rainfall in the Middle Yellow River, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Yi; Tian, Peng; Mu, Xingmin; Gao, Peng; Zhao, Guangju; Wang, Fei; Li, Pengfei

2017-07-01

Highly concentrated precipitation, where a large percentage of annual precipitation occurs over a few days, may include a high risk of flooding and severe soil erosion. Thus, areas with severe erosion such as the Loess Plateau in China are particularly vulnerable to highly concentrated precipitation events due to climate change. In this study, we investigated spatial and temporal patterns in the concentration of rainfall in the Middle Yellow River (MYR) from the last 56 years (1958-2013). We used daily and monthly precipitation data from 26 meteorological stations in the study area to calculate the precipitation concentration index (PCI) and the concentration index (CI). The southern and northern parts of the MYR were characterized by a lower CI with a decreasing trend, while the middle parts had a higher CI with an increasing trend. High PCI values occurred in the southern MYR, while lower PCIs with a more homogenous rainfall distribution were found mainly in the northern parts of the MYR. The annual PCI and CI exhibited positive trends at most stations, although only a minority of stations had significant trends ( P < 0.05). At seasonal scales, CI exhibited significantly increasing trends in winter at most stations, while a few stations had significant trends in the other three seasons. These findings provide important reference information to facilitate ecological restoration and farming operations in the study region.

Temporal trend of the snow-related variables in Sierra Nevada in the last years: An analysis combining Earth Observation and hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Luque, Antonio J.; Herrero, Javier; Bonet, Francisco J.; Pérez-Pérez, Ramón

2016-04-01

Climate change is causing declines in snow-cover extent and duration in European mountain ranges. This is especially important in Mediterranean mountain ranges where the observed trends towards precipitation and higher temperatures can provoke problems of water scarcity. In this work, we analyzed temporal trends (2000 to 2014) of snow-related variables obtained from satellite and modelling data in Sierra Nevada, a Mediterranean high-mountain range located in Southern Spain, at 37°N. Snow cover indicators (snow-cover duration, snow-cover onset dates and snow-cover melting dates) were obtained by processing images of MOD10A2 MODIS product using an automated workflow. Precipitation data were obtained using WiMMed, a complete and fully distributed hydrological model that is used to map the annual rainfall and snowfall with a resolution of 30x30 m over the whole study area. It uses expert algorithms to interpolate precipitation and temperature at an hourly scale, and simulates partition of precipitation into snowfall with several methods. For each snow-related indicator (snow-covers and snowfall), a trend analysis was applied at the MODIS pixel scale during the study period (2000-2014). We applied Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimation in each of the pixels comprising Sierra Nevada. The trend analysis assesses the intensity, magnitude and degree of statistical significance during the period analysed. The spatial pattern of these trends was explored according to elevation ranges. Finally, we explored the relationship between trends of snow-cover related indicators and precipitation trends. Our results show that snow-cover has undergone significant changes in the last 14 years. 80 % of the pixels covering Sierra Nevada showed a negative trend in the duration of snow-cover. We also observed a delay in the snow-cover onset date (68.03 % pixels showing a positive trend in the snow-cover onset date) and an advance in the melt date (80.72 % of pixels followed a negative trend for the snow-cover melting date). Precipitation does not show a significant trend for these years, even though its inter-annual variability has been outstanding. The maximum mean annual precipitation of 906 mm/year doubles the mean precipitation, which somehow compensates for the occurrence of a sequence of dry years with a minimum of 250 mm/year. The assessment of the spatial pattern of snow cover duration shows that both the trend and the slope of the trend becomes more pronounced with elevation. At higher elevations the snow-cover duration decreased an average of 3 days from 2000-2014. This research has been funded by ECOPOTENTIAL (Improving future ecosystem benefits through Earth Observations) Horizon 2020 EU project, and Sierra Nevada Global Change Observatory (LTER-site)

Geographical and Temporal Variations in Female Breast Cancer Mortality in the Municipalities of Andalusia (Southern Spain).

PubMed

Ocaña-Riola, Ricardo; Montaño-Remacha, Carmen; Mayoral-Cortés, José María

2016-11-22

The last published figures have shown geographical variations in mortality with respect to female breast cancer in European countries. However, national health policies need a dynamic image of the geographical variations within the country. The aim of this paper was to describe the spatial distribution of age-specific mortality rates from female breast cancer in the municipalities of Andalusia (southern Spain) and to analyze its evolution over time from 1981 to 2012. An ecological study was devised. Two spatio-temporal hierarchical Bayesian models were estimated. One of these was used to estimate the age-specific mortality rate for each municipality, together with its time trends, and the other was used to estimate the age-specific rate ratio compared with Spain as a whole. The results showed that 98% of the municipalities exhibited a decreasing or a flat mortality trend for all the age groups. In 2012, the geographical variability of the age-specific mortality rates was small, especially for population groups below 65. In addition, more than 96.6% of the municipalities showed an age-specific mortality rate similar to the corresponding rate for Spain, and there were no identified significant clusters. This information will contribute towards a reflection on the past, present and future of breast cancer outcomes in Andalusia.

Risk of POP mixtures on the Arctic food chain.

PubMed

Villa, Sara; Migliorati, Sonia; Monti, Gianna Serafina; Holoubek, Ivan; Vighi, Marco

2017-05-01

The exposure of the Arctic ecosystem to persistent organic pollutants (POPs) was assessed through a review of literature data. Concentrations of 19 chemicals or congeneric groups were estimated for the highest levels of the Arctic food chain (Arctic cod, ringed seals, and polar bears). The ecotoxicological risk for seals, bears, and bear cubs was estimated by applying the concentration addition (CA) concept. The risk of POP mixtures was very low in seals. By contrast, the risk was 2 orders of magnitude higher than the risk threshold for adult polar bears and even more (3 orders of magnitude above the threshold) for bear cubs fed with contaminated milk. Based on the temporal trends available for many of the chemicals, the temporal trend of the mixture risk for bear cubs was calculated. Relative to the 1980s, a decrease in risk from the POP mixture is evident, mainly because of international control measures. However, the composition of the mixture substantially changes, and the contribution of new POPs (particularly perfluorooctane sulfonate) increases. These results support the effectiveness of control measures, such as those promulgated in the Stockholm Convention, as well as the urgent need for their implementation for new and emerging POPs. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:1181-1192. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Geographical and Temporal Variations in Female Breast Cancer Mortality in the Municipalities of Andalusia (Southern Spain)

PubMed Central

Ocaña-Riola, Ricardo; Montaño-Remacha, Carmen; Mayoral-Cortés, José María

2016-01-01

The last published figures have shown geographical variations in mortality with respect to female breast cancer in European countries. However, national health policies need a dynamic image of the geographical variations within the country. The aim of this paper was to describe the spatial distribution of age-specific mortality rates from female breast cancer in the municipalities of Andalusia (southern Spain) and to analyze its evolution over time from 1981 to 2012. An ecological study was devised. Two spatio-temporal hierarchical Bayesian models were estimated. One of these was used to estimate the age-specific mortality rate for each municipality, together with its time trends, and the other was used to estimate the age-specific rate ratio compared with Spain as a whole. The results showed that 98% of the municipalities exhibited a decreasing or a flat mortality trend for all the age groups. In 2012, the geographical variability of the age-specific mortality rates was small, especially for population groups below 65. In addition, more than 96.6% of the municipalities showed an age-specific mortality rate similar to the corresponding rate for Spain, and there were no identified significant clusters. This information will contribute towards a reflection on the past, present and future of breast cancer outcomes in Andalusia. PMID:27879690

ENSO Dynamics and Trends, AN Alternate View

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rojo Hernandez, J. D.; Lall, U.; Mesa, O. J.

2017-12-01

El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important inter-annual climate fluctuation on a planetary level with great effects on the hydrological cycle, agriculture, ecosystems, health and society. This work demonstrates the use of the Non-Homogeneus hidden Markov Models (NHMM) to characterize ENSO using a set of discrete states with variable transition probabilities matrix using the data of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) of the Kaplan Extended SST v2 between 120E -90W, 15N-15S from Jan-1856 to Dec-2016. ENSO spatial patterns, their temporal distribution, the transition probabilities between patterns and their temporal evolution are the main results of the NHHMM applied to ENSO. The five "hidden" states found appear to represent the different "Flavors" described in the literature: the Canonical El Niño, Central El Niño, a Neutral state, Central La Niña and the Canonical Niña. Using the whole record length of the SSTA it was possible to identify trends in the dynamic system, with a decrease in the probability of occurrence of the cold events and a significant increase of the warm events, in particular of Central El Niño events whose probability of occurrence has increased Dramatically since 1960 coupled with increases in global temperature.

Spatio-Temporal Trends and Identification of Correlated Variables with Water Quality for Drinking-Water Reservoirs

PubMed Central

Gu, Qing; Wang, Ke; Li, Jiadan; Ma, Ligang; Deng, Jinsong; Zheng, Kefeng; Zhang, Xiaobin; Sheng, Li

2015-01-01

It is widely accepted that characterizing the spatio-temporal trends of water quality parameters and identifying correlated variables with water quality are indispensable for the management and protection of water resources. In this study, cluster analysis was used to classify 56 typical drinking water reservoirs in Zhejiang Province into three groups representing different water quality levels, using data of four water quality parameters for the period 2006–2010. Then, the spatio-temporal trends in water quality were analyzed, assisted by geographic information systems (GIS) technology and statistical analysis. The results indicated that the water quality showed a trend of degradation from southwest to northeast, and the overall water quality level was exacerbated during the study period. Correlation analysis was used to evaluate the relationships between water quality parameters and ten independent variables grouped into four categories (land use, socio-economic factors, geographical features, and reservoir attributes). According to the correlation coefficients, land use and socio-economic indicators were identified as the most significant factors related to reservoir water quality. The results offer insights into the spatio-temporal variations of water quality parameters and factors impacting the water quality of drinking water reservoirs in Zhejiang Province, and they could assist managers in making effective strategies to better protect water resources. PMID:26492263

Spatio-Temporal Trends and Identification of Correlated Variables with Water Quality for Drinking-Water Reservoirs.

PubMed

Gu, Qing; Wang, Ke; Li, Jiadan; Ma, Ligang; Deng, Jinsong; Zheng, Kefeng; Zhang, Xiaobin; Sheng, Li

2015-10-20

It is widely accepted that characterizing the spatio-temporal trends of water quality parameters and identifying correlated variables with water quality are indispensable for the management and protection of water resources. In this study, cluster analysis was used to classify 56 typical drinking water reservoirs in Zhejiang Province into three groups representing different water quality levels, using data of four water quality parameters for the period 2006-2010. Then, the spatio-temporal trends in water quality were analyzed, assisted by geographic information systems (GIS) technology and statistical analysis. The results indicated that the water quality showed a trend of degradation from southwest to northeast, and the overall water quality level was exacerbated during the study period. Correlation analysis was used to evaluate the relationships between water quality parameters and ten independent variables grouped into four categories (land use, socio-economic factors, geographical features, and reservoir attributes). According to the correlation coefficients, land use and socio-economic indicators were identified as the most significant factors related to reservoir water quality. The results offer insights into the spatio-temporal variations of water quality parameters and factors impacting the water quality of drinking water reservoirs in Zhejiang Province, and they could assist managers in making effective strategies to better protect water resources.

Epidemiology of severe and fatal rattlesnake bites published in the American Association of Poison Control Centers' Annual Reports.

PubMed

Walter, Frank G; Stolz, Uwe; Shirazi, Farshad; McNally, Jude

2009-08-01

No study has focused on the nationwide epidemiology of severe and fatal rattlesnake bites during the last 25 years. We examined rates and temporal trends of severe and fatal rattlesnake bites across the United States. Our hypothesis was that nationwide annual rates of both severe and fatal outcomes from rattlesnake bites have remained unchanged over time. This study retrospectively analyzed all human rattlesnake bites published in the Annual Reports of the American Association of Poison Control Centers from 1983 through 2007. Annual rates of severe (major) and fatal rattlesnake bites were calculated using the annual number of major outcomes and fatalities as respective numerators and the total annual number of single rattlesnake bites (exposures) as denominators. Negative binomial and Poisson regressions were used to examine trends of severe and fatal rattlesnake bites over time. Annually, from 1985 to 2007, the incidence rate of major outcomes decreased by 2% per year (incidence rate ratio = 0.980; CI = 0.967-0.993), corresponding to an absolute annual rate decrease of two major outcomes per 1,000 bites per year. Annual rates of fatalities showed no statistically significant change from 1983 through 2007. This is the first study to examine rates and trends of published severe and fatal rattlesnake bites across the United States over the past 25 years. Annual rates of severe rattlesnake bites, derived from the published Annual Reports of the American Association of Poison Control Centers, have significantly decreased over time, whereas rates of fatal rattlesnake bites have remained unchanged.

Stress, sex, and plague: Patterns of developmental stress and survival in pre- and post-Black Death London.

PubMed

DeWitte, Sharon N

2018-01-01

Previous research revealed declines in survivorship in London before the Black Death (c. 1346-1353), and improvements in survivorship following the epidemic. These trends indicate that there were declines in general levels of health before the Black Death and improvements thereof afterwards. This study expands on previous research by examining whether changes in survivorship were consistent between the sexes, and how patterns of developmental stress markers changed before and after the Black Death. This study uses samples from London cemeteries dated to one of three periods: Early Pre-Black Death (1000-1200 AD, n = 255), Late Pre-Black Death (1200-1250 AD, n = 247), or Post-Black Death (1350-1540 AD n = 329). Temporal trends in survivorship are assessed via Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, and trends in tibial length (as a proxy for stature) and linear enamel hypoplasia (LEH) are assessed using t-tests and Chi-square tests, respectively. Survivorship for both sexes decreased before the Black Death and increased afterwards. For males, LEH frequencies increased and stature decreased before the epidemic, and LEH declined and stature increased after the Black Death. For females, the only significant change with respect to developmental stress markers was a decrease in stature after the Black Death. These results might reflect variation between the sexes in sensitivity to stressors, the effects of nutrition on pubertal timing, disproportionate access to dietary resources for males in the aftermath of the Black Death, the disproportionate deaths of frail individuals during the epidemic, or some combination of these factors. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Changes of the time-varying percentiles of daily extreme temperature in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bin; Chen, Fang; Xu, Feng; Wang, Xinrui

2017-11-01

Identifying the air temperature frequency distributions and evaluating the trends in time-varying percentiles are very important for climate change studies. In order to get a better understanding of the recent temporal and spatial pattern of the temperature changes in China, we have calculated the trends in temporal-varying percentiles of the daily extreme air temperature firstly. Then we divide all the stations to get the spatial patterns for the percentile trends using the average linkage cluster analysis method. To make a comparison, the shifts of trends percentile frequency distribution from 1961-1985 to 1986-2010 are also examined. Important results in three aspects have been achieved: (1) In terms of the trends in temporal-varying percentiles of the daily extreme air temperature, the most intense warming for daily maximum air temperature (Tmax) was detected in the upper percentiles with a significant increasing tendency magnitude (>2.5 °C/50year), and the greatest warming for daily minimum air temperature (Tmin) occurred with very strong trends exceeding 4 °C/50year. (2) The relative coherent spatial patterns for the percentile trends were found, and stations for the whole country had been divided into three clusters. The three primary clusters were distributed regularly to some extent from north to south, indicating the possible large influence of the latitude. (3) The most significant shifts of trends percentile frequency distribution from 1961-1985 to 1986-2010 was found in Tmax. More than half part of the frequency distribution show negative trends less than -0.5 °C/50year in 1961-1985, while showing trends less than 2.5 °C/50year in 1986-2010.

Level and temporal trend of perfluoroalkyl acids in Greenlandic Inuit.

PubMed

Long, Manhai; Bossi, Rossana; Bonefeld-Jørgensen, Eva C

2012-03-19

Perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) have been detected in human blood, breast milk and umbilical cord blood across the globe. PFAAs do accumulate in the marine food chain in Arctic regions. In Greenland, increasing PFAA concentrations were observed during 1982-2006 in ringed seals and polar bears. However, until now, no data have been reported for PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. This study assesses the level and temporal trend of serum PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. Cross-section and temporal time trend survey. Serum PFAA levels were determined in 284 Inuit from different Greenlandic districts using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry with electrospray ionization. The temporal time trend of serum PFAAs in Nuuk Inuit during 1998-2005 and the correlation between serum PFAAs and legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs) were explored. Serum PFAA levels were higher in Nuuk Inuit than in non-Nuuk Inuit. Within the same district, higher PFAA levels were observed for males. An age-dependent, increasing trend of serum PFAA levels in the period from 1998-2005 was observed for Nuuk Inuit. For the pooled gender data, no significant association between PFAAs and legacy POPs was observed for Nuuk Inuit while for non-Nuuk Inuit this correlation was significant. No correlation between PFAAs and legacy POPs was found for male Inuit, whereas significant correlation was observed both for pooled female Inuit and for non-Nuuk Inuit females. We suggest that sources other than seafood intake might contribute to the observed higher PFAA levels in Nuuk Inuit compared to the pooled non-Nuuk Inuit.

Differences in spatiotemporal variations of atmospheric PAH levels between North America and Europe: data from two air monitoring projects.

PubMed

Liu, Liang-Ying; Kukučka, Petr; Venier, Marta; Salamova, Amina; Klánová, Jana; Hites, Ronald A

2014-03-01

Atmospheric concentrations of high molecular weight polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were measured at five sites for almost two decades near the North American Great Lakes, as part of the Integrated Atmospheric Deposition Network (IADN), and at three remote sites around Europe, as part of the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP). The primary objectives were to reveal the spatial distributions, long-term temporal trends, and seasonal variations of atmospheric PAH concentrations and to investigate potential differences between these two regions. Atmospheric PAH concentrations at the urban sites in Chicago and Cleveland near Great Lakes were about 20 times (depending on PAH congener and sampling site) greater than those at the rural sites except for Košetice in the Czech Republic. Atmospheric PAH concentrations at Košetice, also a rural site, were about one-third of those at Chicago and Cleveland, but 10 times higher than those at other rural sites (Sturgeon Point, Sleeping Bear Dunes, Eagle Harbor, Aspvreten, and Spitsbergen). Significant long-term decreasing trends of all these PAH atmospheric concentrations were observed at Chicago and Cleveland. For the other sites, either less significant or no long-term decreasing trends were observed. Clear seasonality was observed at Sturgeon Point, Sleeping Bear Dunes, Košetice, and Spitsbergen, with the highest PAH concentrations observed in mid-January. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Space Radiation Induced Cytogenetic Damage in the Blood Lymphocytes of Astronauts: Persistence of Damage After Flight and the Effects of Repeat Long Duration Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

George, Kerry; Rhone, Jordan; Chappell, L. J.; Cucinotta, F. A.

2010-01-01

Cytogenetic damage was assessed in blood lymphocytes from astronauts before and after they participated in long-duration space missions of three months or more. The frequency of chromosome damage was measured by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) chromosome painting before flight and at various intervals from a few days to many months after return from the mission. For all individuals, the frequency of chromosome exchanges measured within a month of return from space was higher than their prefight yield. However, some individuals showed a temporal decline in chromosome damage with time after flight. Statistical analysis using combined data for all astronauts indicated a significant overall decreasing trend in total chromosome exchanges with time after flight, although this trend was not seen for all astronauts and the yield of chromosome damage in some individuals actually increased with time after flight. The decreasing trend in total exchanges was slightly more significant when statistical analysis was restricted to data collected more than 220 days after return from flight. In addition, limited data on multiple flights show a lack of correlation between time in space and translocation yields. Data from three crewmembers who has participated in two separate long-duration space missions provide limited information on the effect of repeat flights and show a possible adaptive response to space radiation exposure.

Water-quality trends and constituent-transport analysis for selected sampling sites in the Milltown Reservoir/Clark Fork River Superfund Site in the upper Clark Fork Basin, Montana, water years 1996–2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Steven K.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

2016-07-20

During the extended history of mining in the upper Clark Fork Basin in Montana, large amounts of waste materials enriched with metallic contaminants (cadmium, copper, lead, and zinc) and the metalloid trace element arsenic were generated from mining operations near Butte and milling and smelting operations near Anaconda. Extensive deposition of mining wastes in the Silver Bow Creek and Clark Fork channels and flood plains had substantial effects on water quality. Federal Superfund remediation activities in the upper Clark Fork Basin began in 1983 and have included substantial remediation near Butte and removal of the former Milltown Dam near Missoula. To aid in evaluating the effects of remediation activities on water quality, the U.S. Geological Survey began collecting streamflow and water-quality data in the upper Clark Fork Basin in the 1980s.Trend analysis was done on specific conductance, selected trace elements (arsenic, copper, and zinc), and suspended sediment for seven sampling sites in the Milltown Reservoir/Clark Fork River Superfund Site for water years 1996–2015. The most upstream site included in trend analysis is Silver Bow Creek at Warm Springs, Montana (sampling site 8), and the most downstream site is Clark Fork above Missoula, Montana (sampling site 22), which is just downstream from the former Milltown Dam. Water year is the 12-month period from October 1 through September 30 and is designated by the year in which it ends. Trend analysis was done by using a joint time-series model for concentration and streamflow. To provide temporal resolution of changes in water quality, trend analysis was conducted for four sequential 5-year periods: period 1 (water years 1996–2000), period 2 (water years 2001–5), period 3 (water years 2006–10), and period 4 (water years 2011–15). Because of the substantial effect of the intentional breach of Milltown Dam on March 28, 2008, period 3 was subdivided into period 3A (October 1, 2005–March 27, 2008) and period 3B (March 28, 2008–September 30, 2010) for the Clark Fork above Missoula (sampling site 22). Trend results were considered statistically significant when the statistical probability level was less than 0.01.In conjunction with the trend analysis, estimated normalized constituent loads (hereinafter referred to as “loads”) were calculated and presented within the framework of a constituent-transport analysis to assess the temporal trends in flow-adjusted concentrations (FACs) in the context of sources and transport. The transport analysis allows assessment of temporal changes in relative contributions from upstream source areas to loads transported past each reach outflow.Trend results indicate that FACs of unfiltered-recoverable copper decreased at the sampling sites from the start of period 1 through the end of period 4; the decreases ranged from large for one sampling site (Silver Bow Creek at Warm Springs [sampling site 8]) to moderate for two sampling sites (Clark Fork near Galen, Montana [sampling site 11] and Clark Fork above Missoula [sampling site 22]) to small for four sampling sites (Clark Fork at Deer Lodge, Montana [sampling site 14], Clark Fork at Goldcreek, Montana [sampling site 16], Clark Fork near Drummond, Montana [sampling site 18], and Clark Fork at Turah Bridge near Bonner, Montana [sampling site 20]). For period 4 (water years 2011–15), the most notable changes indicated for the Milltown Reservoir/Clark Fork River Superfund Site were statistically significant decreases in FACs and loads of unfiltered-recoverable copper for sampling sites 8 and 22. The period 4 changes in FACs of unfiltered-recoverable copper for all other sampling sites were not statistically significant.Trend results indicate that FACs of unfiltered-recoverable arsenic decreased at the sampling sites from period 1 through period 4 (water years 1996–2015); the decreases ranged from minor (sampling sites 8–20) to small (sampling site 22). For period 4 (water years 2011–15), the most notable changes indicated for the Milltown Reservoir/Clark Fork River Superfund Site were statistically significant decreases in FACs and loads of unfiltered-recoverable arsenic for sampling site 8 and near statistically significant decreases for sampling site 22. The period 4 changes in FACs of unfiltered-recoverable arsenic for all other sampling sites were not statistically significant.Trend results indicate that FACs of suspended sediment decreased at the sampling sites from period 1 through period 4 (water years 1996–2015); the decreases ranged from moderate (sampling site 8) to small (sampling sites 11–22). For period 4 (water years 2011–15), the changes in FACs of suspended sediment were not statistically significant for any sampling sites.The reach of the Clark Fork from Galen to Deer Lodge is a large source of metallic contaminants and suspended sediment, which strongly affects downstream transport of those constituents. Mobilization of copper and suspended sediment from flood-plain tailings and the streambed of the Clark Fork and its tributaries within the reach results in a contribution of those constituents that is proportionally much larger than the contribution of streamflow from within the reach. Within the reach from Galen to Deer Lodge, unfiltered-recoverable copper loads increased by a factor of about 4 and suspended-sediment loads increased by a factor of about 5, whereas streamflow increased by a factor of slightly less than 2. For period 4 (water years 2011–15), unfiltered-recoverable copper and suspended-sediment loads sourced from within the reach accounted for about 41 and 14 percent, respectively, of the loads at Clark Fork above Missoula (sampling site 22), whereas streamflow sourced from within the reach accounted for about 4 percent of the streamflow at sampling site 22. During water years 1996–2015, decreases in FACs and loads of unfiltered-recoverable copper and suspended sediment for the reach generally were proportionally smaller than for most other reaches.Unfiltered-recoverable copper loads sourced within the reaches of the Clark Fork between Deer Lodge and Turah Bridge near Bonner (just upstream from the former Milltown Dam) were proportionally smaller than contributions of streamflow sourced from within the reaches; these reaches contributed proportionally much less to copper loading in the Clark Fork than the reach between Galen and Deer Lodge. Although substantial decreases in FACs and loads of unfiltered-recoverable copper and suspended sediment were indicated for Silver Bow Creek at Warm Springs (sampling site 8), those substantial decreases were not translated to downstream reaches between Deer Lodge and Turah Bridge near Bonner. The effect of the reach of the Clark Fork from Galen to Deer Lodge as a large source of copper and suspended sediment, in combination with little temporal change in those constituents for the reach, contributes to this pattern.With the removal of the former Milltown Dam in 2008, substantial amounts of contaminated sediments that remained in the Clark Fork channel and flood plain in reach 9 (downstream from Turah Bridge near Bonner) became more available for mobilization and transport than before the dam removal. After the removal of the former Milltown Dam, the Clark Fork above Missoula (sampling site 22) had statistically significant decreases in FACs of unfiltered-recoverable copper in period 3B (March 28, 2008, through water year 2010) that continued in period 4 (water years 2011–15). Also, decreases in FACs of unfiltered-recoverable arsenic and suspended sediment were indicated for period 4 at this site. The decrease in FACs of unfiltered-recoverable copper for sampling site 22 during period 4 was proportionally much larger than the decrease for the Clark Fork at Turah Bridge near Bonner (sampling site 20). Net mobilization of unfiltered-recoverable copper and arsenic from sources within reach 9 are smaller for period 4 than for period 1 when the former Milltown Dam was in place, providing evidence that contaminant source materials have been substantially reduced in reach 9.

Social determinants, their relationship with leprosy risk and temporal trends in a tri-border region in Latin America

PubMed Central

Arcoverde, Marcos Augusto Moraes; Ramos, Antônio Carlos Viera; Alves, Luana Seles; Berra, Thais Zamboni; Arroyo, Luiz Henrique; de Queiroz, Ana Angélica Rêgo; dos Santos, Danielle Talita; Belchior, Aylana de Souza; Alves, Josilene Dália; Pieri, Flávia Meneguetti; Silva-Sobrinho, Reinaldo Antônio; Pinto, Ione Carvalho; Tavares, Clodis Maria; Yamamura, Mellina; Frade, Marco Andrey Cipriani; Palha, Pedro Fredemir; Chiaravalloti-Neto, Francisco; Arcêncio, Ricardo Alexandre

2018-01-01

Background Brazil is the only country in Latin America that has adopted a national health system. This causes differences in access to health among Latin American countries and induces noticeable migration to Brazilian regions to seek healthcare. This phenomenon has led to difficulties in the control and elimination of diseases related to poverty, such as leprosy. The aim of this study was to evaluate social determinants and their relationship with the risk of leprosy, as well as to examine the temporal trend of its occurrence in a Brazilian municipality located on the tri-border area between Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina. Methods This ecological study investigated newly-diagnosed cases of leprosy between 2003 and 2015. Exploratory analysis of the data was performed through descriptive statistics. For spatial analysis, geocoding of the data was performed using spatial scan statistic techniques to obtain the Relative Risk (RR) for each census tract, with their respective 95% confidence intervals calculated. The Bivariate Moran I test, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models were applied to analyze the spatial relationships of social determinants and leprosy risk. The temporal trend of the annual coefficient of new cases was obtained through the Prais-Winsten regression. A standard error of 5% was considered statistically significant (p < 0.05). Results Of the 840 new cases identified in the study, there was a predominance of females (n = 427, 50.8%), of white race/color (n = 685, 81.6%), age range 15 to 59 years (n = 624, 74.3%), and incomplete elementary education (n = 504, 60.0%). The results obtained from multivariate analysis revealed that the proportion of households with monthly nominal household income per capita greater than 1 minimum wage (β = 0.025, p = 0.036) and people of brown race (β = -0.101, p = 0.024) were statistically-significantly associated with risk of illness due to leprosy. These results also confirmed that social determinants and risk of leprosy were significantly spatially non-stationary. Regarding the temporal trend, a decrease of 4% (95% CI [-0.053, -0.033], p = 0.000) per year was observed in the rate of detection of new cases of leprosy. Conclusion The social determinants income and race/color were associated with the risk of leprosy. The study’s highlighting of these social determinants can contribute to the development of public policies directed toward the elimination of leprosy in the border region. PMID:29624595

[Mortality from Suicide in the Municipalities of Mainland Portugal: Spatio-Temporal Evolution between 1980 and 2015].

PubMed

Loureiro, Adriana; Almendra, Ricardo; Costa, Cláudia; Santana, Paula

2018-01-31

Suicide is considered a public health priority. It is a complex phenomenon resulting from the interaction of several factors, which do not depend solely on individual conditions. This study analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution of suicide mortality between 1980 and 2015, identifying areas of high risk, and their variation, in the 278 municipalities of Continental Portugal. Based on the number of self-inflicted injuries and deaths from suicide and the resident population, the spatio-temporal evolution of the suicide mortality rate was assessed via: i) a Poisson joinpoint regression model, and ii) spatio-temporal clustering methods. The suicide mortality rate evolution showed statistically significant increases over three periods (1980 - 1984; 1999 - 2002 and 2006 - 2015) and two statistically significant periods of decrease (1984 - 1995 and 1995 - 1999). The spatio-temporal analysis identified five clusters of high suicide risk (relative risk >1) and four clusters of low suicide risk (relative risk < 1). The periods when suicide mortality increases seem to overlap with times of economic and financial instability. The geographical pattern of suicide risk has changed: presently, the suicide rates from the municipalities in the Center and North are showing more similarity with those seen in the South, thus increasing the ruralization of the phenomenon of suicide. Between 1980 and 2015 the spacio-temporal pattern of mortality from suicide has been changing and is a phenomenon that is currently experiencing a growing trend (since 2006) and is of higher risk in rural areas.

Assessment of surface-water quantity and quality, Eagle River watershed, Colorado, 1947-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Cory A.; Moore, Jennifer L.; Richards, Rodney J.

2011-01-01

The spatial patterns for concentrations of trace metals (aluminum, cadmium, copper, iron, manganese, and zinc) indicate an increase in dissolved concentrations of these metals near historical mining areas in the Eagle River and several tributaries near Belden. In general, concentrations decrease downstream from mining areas. Concentrations typically are near or below reporting limits in Gore Creek and other tributaries within the watershed. Concentrations for trace elements (arsenic, selenium, and uranium) in the watershed usually are below the reporting limit, and no prevailing spatial patterns were observed in the data. Step-trend analysis and temporal-trend analysis provide evidence that remediation of historical mining areas in the upper Eagle River have led to observed decreases in metals concentrations in many surface-waters. Comparison of pre- and post-remediation concentrations for many metals indicates significant decreases in metals concentrations for cadmium, manganese, and zinc at sites downstream from the Eagle Mine Superfund Site. Some sites show order of magnitude reductions in median concentrations between these two periods. Evaluation of monotonic trends for dissolved metals concentrations show downward trends at numerous sites in, and downstream from, historic mining areas. The spatial pattern of nutrients shows lower concentrations on many tributaries and on the Eagle River upstream from Red Cliff with increases in nutrients downstream of major urban areas. Seasonal variations show that for many nutrient species, concentrations tend to be lowest May-June and highest January-March. The gradual changes in concentrations between seasons may be related to dilution effects from increases and decreases in streamflow. Upward trends in nutrients between the towns of Gypsum and Avon were detected for nitrate, orthophosphate, and total phosphorus. An upward trend in nitrite was detected in Gore Creek. No trends were detected in un-ionized ammonia within the ERW. Exceedances of State water-quality standards (nitrite, nitrate, and un-ionized ammonia) and levels higher than U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommendations (total phosphorus) occur in several areas within the ERW. The majority of the exceedances are from comparisons to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency total phosphorus recommendations. A positive correlation was observed between suspended sediment and total phosphorus. An upward trend in total dissolved solids in Gore Creek may be the result of increases in chloride salts. Highly significant trends were detected in sodium, potassium, and chloride with a significant upward trend in magnesium and a weakly significant upward trend in calcium. A quantitative analysis of the relative abundance of calcium, magnesium, sodium, and potassium to the available anions suggests that chloride salts likely are the source for the detected upward trends because chloride is the only commonly occurring anion with a trend in Gore Greek. A potential source for the observed chloride salts may be the chemical anti-icing and deicing products used during winter road maintenance in municipal areas and on Interstate-70. A downward trend in dissolved solids in the Eagle River between Gypsum and Avon may be contributing to the detected trend on the Eagle River at Gypsum. Significant downward trends were detected in specific ions such as calcium, magnesium, sulfate, and silica. Measures of total dissolved solids as well as comparisons to specific ions show that in water-quality samples within the ERW concentrations generally are lower in the headwaters, with increases downstream from Wolcott. Differences in concentrations likely result from increased abundance of salt-bearing geologic units downstream from Avon. Few sites had measured concentrations that exceeded the State standards for chloride.

Decadal and seasonal trends of nutrient concentration and export from highly managed coastal catchments.

PubMed

Wan, Yongshan; Wan, Lei; Li, Yuncong; Doering, Peter

2017-05-15

Understanding anthropogenic and hydro-climatic influences on nutrient concentrations and export from highly managed catchments often necessitates trend detection using long-term monitoring data. This study analyzed the temporal trend (1979-2014) of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations and export from four adjacent coastal basins in south Florida where land and water resources are highly managed through an intricate canal network. The method of integrated seasonal-trend decomposition using LOESS (LOcally weighted regrESSion) was employed for trend detection. The results indicated that long-term trends in TN and TP concentrations (increasing/decreasing) varied with basins and nutrient species, reflecting the influence of basin specific land and water management practices. These long-term trends were intervened by short-term highs driven by high rainfall and discharges and lows associated with regional droughts. Seasonal variations in TP were more apparent than for TN. Nutrient export exhibited a chemostatic behavior for TN from all the basins, largely due to the biogenic nature of organic N associated with the ubiquity of organic materials in the managed canal network. Varying degrees of chemodynamic export was present for TP, reflecting complex biogeochemical responses to the legacy of long-term fertilization, low soil P holding capacity, and intensive stormwater management. The anthropogenic and hydro-climatic influences on nutrient concentration and export behavior had great implications in nutrient loading abatement strategies for aquatic ecosystem restoration of the downstream receiving waterbody. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Revisiting AVHRR Tropospheric Aerosol Trends Using Principal Component Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Jing; Carlson, Barbara E.; Lacis, Andrew A.

2014-01-01

The advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) satellite instruments provide a nearly 25 year continuous record of global aerosol properties over the ocean. It offers valuable insights into the long-term change in global aerosol loading. However, the AVHRR data record is heavily influenced by two volcanic eruptions, El Chichon on March 1982 and Mount Pinatubo on June 1991. The gradual decay of volcanic aerosols may last years after the eruption, which potentially masks the estimation of aerosol trends in the lower troposphere, especially those of anthropogenic origin. In this study, we show that a principal component analysis approach effectively captures the bulk of the spatial and temporal variability of volcanic aerosols into a single mode. The spatial pattern and time series of this mode provide a good match to the global distribution and decay of volcanic aerosols. We further reconstruct the data set by removing the volcanic aerosol component and reestimate the global and regional aerosol trends. Globally, the reconstructed data set reveals an increase of aerosol optical depth from 1985 to 1990 and decreasing trend from 1994 to 2006. Regionally, in the 1980s, positive trends are observed over the North Atlantic and North Arabian Sea, while negative tendencies are present off the West African coast and North Pacific. During the 1994 to 2006 period, the Gulf of Mexico, North Atlantic close to Europe, and North Africa exhibit negative trends, while the coastal regions of East and South Asia, the Sahel region, and South America show positive trends.

Antimicrobial resistance trends among Escherichia coli isolates obtained from dairy cattle in the northeastern United States, 2004-2011.

PubMed

Cummings, Kevin J; Aprea, Victor A; Altier, Craig

2014-01-01

Monitoring antimicrobial resistance trends among bacteria isolated from food animals and people is necessary to inform risk analyses and guide public policy regarding antimicrobial use. Our objectives were to describe the antimicrobial resistance status of Escherichia coli isolates from dairy cattle in the northeastern United States and to identify trends in resistance to selected antimicrobial agents over time. We collected data retrospectively for all bovine E. coli isolates that were obtained from samples submitted to Cornell University's Animal Health Diagnostic Center between January 1, 2004 and December 31, 2011. We investigated temporal trends in the prevalence of resistant E. coli for each antimicrobial agent using the Cochran-Armitage trend test. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was performed on 3373 bovine E. coli isolates from clinical samples submitted during the study period. Overall resistance to each antimicrobial agent ranged from 2.7% (enrofloxacin) to 91.3% (oxytetracycline). There was evidence of a significantly decreasing trend in prevalence of resistance to several agents: chlortetracycline, florfenicol, neomycin, oxytetracycline, spectinomycin, and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole. However, a significantly increasing trend in prevalence of resistance to enrofloxacin was also evident. These results do not support the idea that current antimicrobial use practices on dairy operations are driving a general increase in the emergence and dissemination of drug-resistant E. coli in the region served by the laboratory. However, resistance to some drugs remained consistently high during the study period, and increasing resistance to enrofloxacin is a key area of concern.

Effects of afforestation on runoff and sediment load in an upland Mediterranean catchment.

PubMed

Buendia, C; Bussi, G; Tuset, J; Vericat, D; Sabater, S; Palau, A; Batalla, R J

2016-01-01

This paper assesses annual and seasonal trends in runoff and sediment load resulting from climate variability and afforestation in an upland Mediterranean basin, the Ribera Salada (NE Iberian Peninsula). We implemented a hydrological and sediment transport distributed model (TETIS) with a daily time-step, using continuous discharge and sediment transport data collected at a monitoring station during the period 2009-2013. Once calibrated and validated, the model was used to simulate the hydrosedimentary response of the basin for the period 1971-2014 using historical climate and land use data. Simulated series were further used to (i) detect sediment transport and hydrologic trends at different temporal scales (annual, seasonal); (ii) assess changes in the contribution of extreme events (i.e. low and high flows) and (ii) assess the relative effect of forest expansion and climate variability on trends observed by applying a scenario of constant land use. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test indicated upward trends for temperature and decreasing trends (although non-significant) for precipitation. Downward trends occurred for annual runoff, and less significantly for sediment yield. Reductions in runoff were less intense when afforestation was not considered in the model, while trends in sediment yield were reversed. Results also indicated that an increase in the river's torrential behaviour may have occurred throughout the studied period, with low and high flow events gaining importance with respect to the annual contribution, although its magnitude was reduced over time. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temporal Trends in the Risk Profile of Patients Undergoing Outpatient Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: A Report from the National Cardiovascular Data Registry's CathPCI Registry.

PubMed

Vora, Amit N; Dai, Dadi; Gurm, Hitinder; Amin, Amit P; Messenger, John C; Mahmud, Ehtisham; Mauri, Laura; Wang, Tracy Y; Roe, Matthew T; Curtis, Jeptha; Patel, Manesh R; Dauerman, Harold L; Peterson, Eric D; Rao, Sunil V

2016-03-01

Because of recent changes in criteria for coverage for inpatient hospital stays, most nonacute percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) procedures are reimbursed on an outpatient basis regardless of underlying patient risk. Downstream effects of these changes on the risk profile of patients undergoing outpatient PCI have not been evaluated. Using the American College of Cardiology National Cardiovascular Data Registry's CathPCI Registry, we assessed temporal trends in risk profiles and rates of hospital admission among 999 279 patients undergoing PCI qualifying for outpatient reimbursement. We estimated mortality and bleeding risk using validated models from the registry. From 2009 to 2014, the proportion of outpatients not admitted to a hospital after PCI increased from 32.8% to 66.3% (P<0.001). Patients who were admitted after PCI were older, had greater comorbidities, and experienced more post-PCI complications (all P<0.001). Among those not admitted, the proportion of patients at high risk for predicted mortality increased significantly from 17.0% to 19.8% during the study period (P<0.001). In contrast, 16.7% of patients admitted after PCI were at low risk for mortality. Among patients undergoing PCI procedures that qualify for outpatient reimbursement, there has been a temporal decrease in postprocedure hospital admission. Concomitantly, the proportion of these outpatients at high risk for mortality has significantly increased over time. These data suggest that current reimbursement classification could be improved by incorporating patient risk to appropriately match the necessary resources to the needed level of care. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Temporal analysis of intratumoral metabolic heterogeneity characterized by textural features in cervical cancer.

PubMed

Yang, Fei; Thomas, Maria A; Dehdashti, Farrokh; Grigsby, Perry W

2013-05-01

The aim of this pilot study was to explore heterogeneity in the temporal behavior of intratumoral [(18)F]fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) accumulation at a regional scale in patients with cervical cancer undergoing chemoradiotherapy. Included in the study were 20 patients with FIGO stages IB1 to IVA cervical cancer treated with combined chemoradiotherapy. Patients underwent FDG PET/CT before treatment, during weeks 2 and 4 of treatment, and 12 weeks after completion of therapy. Patients were classified based on response to therapy as showing a complete metabolic response (CMR), a partial metabolic response (PMR), or residual disease and the development of new disease (NEW). Based on the presence of residual primary tumor following therapy, patients were divided into two groups, CMR and PMR/NEW. Temporal profiles of intratumoral FDG heterogeneity as characterized by textural features at a regional scale were assessed and compared with those of the standardized uptake value (SUV) indices (SUVmax and SUVmean) within the context of differentiating response groups. Textural features at a regional scale with emphasis on characterizing contiguous regions of high uptake in tumors decreased significantly with time (P < 0.001) in the CMR group, while features describing contiguous regions of low uptake along with those measuring the nonuniformity of contiguous isointense regions in tumors exhibited significant temporal changes in the PMR/NEW group (P < 0.03) but showed no persistent trends with time. Both SUV indices showed significant changes during the course of the disease in both patient groups (P < 0.001 for SUVmax and SUVmean in the CMR group; P = 0.0109 and 0.0136, respectively, for SUVmax and SUVmean in the PMR/NEW group), and also decreased at a constant rate in the CMR group and decreased up to the 4th week of treatment and then increased in the PMR/NEW group. The temporal changes in the heterogeneity of intratumoral FDG distribution characterized at a regional scale using image-based textural features may provide an adjunctive or alternative option for understanding tumor response to chemoradiotherapy and interpreting FDG accumulation dynamics in patients with malignant cervical tumors during the course of the disease.

An investigation of the relationship between innovation and cultural diversity.

PubMed

Kandler, Anne; Laland, Kevin N

2009-08-01

In this paper we apply reaction-diffusion models to explore the relationship between the rate of behavioural innovation and the level of cultural diversity. We investigate how both independent invention and the modification and refinement of established innovations impact on cultural dynamics and diversity. Further, we analyse these relationships in the presence of biases in cultural learning and find that the introduction of new variants typically increases cultural diversity substantially in the short term, but may decrease long-term diversity. Independent invention generally supports higher levels of cultural diversity than refinement. Repeated patterns of innovation through refinement generate characteristic oscillating trends in diversity, with increasing trends towards greater average diversity observed for medium but not low innovation rates. Conformity weakens the relationship between innovation and diversity. The level of cultural diversity, and pattern of temporal dynamics, potentially provide clues as to the underlying process, which can be used to interpret empirical data.

Temporal trend of in-hospital major bleeding among patients with non ST-elevation acute coronary syndromes.

PubMed

Elbarouni, Basem; Elmanfud, Omran; Yan, Raymond T; Fox, Keith A A; Kornder, Jan M; Rose, Barry; Spencer, Frederick A; Welsh, Robert C; Wong, Graham C; Goodman, Shaun G; Yan, Andrew T

2010-09-01

Although randomized controlled trials support the use of intensive medical and invasive therapies for non-ST segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE-ACS), major bleeding is a serious treatment complication. We sought to determine the temporal trend of in-hospital major bleeding among patients with NSTE-ACS, in relation to the evolving management pattern. We identified 14 111 NSTE-ACS patients enrolled in 4 successive, prospective, multicenter registries (ACS I, 1999-2001; ACS II, 2002-2003; GRACE, 2004-2007; and CANRACE, 2008) in Canada between 1999 and 2008. We collected data on patient characteristics, use of cardiac medications and procedures on standardized case report forms. In all registries, major bleeding was defined a priori as life threatening or fatal bleeding, bleeding requiring transfusion of ≥2 U of packed red cells, or resulting in an absolute decrease in hemoglobin of >30g/L. A total of 14 111 patients had a final diagnosis of NSTE-ACS and were included in this study (3294 in the ACS-I registry, 1956 in the ACS-II registry, 7543 in GRACE, and 1318 in CANRACE). Over time, there was a substantial increase in the use of dual anti-platelet (aspirin and thienopyridine) therapy (P for trend <.001), and in rates of in-hospital cardiac catheterization and percutaneous coronary intervention (both Ps for trend <.001). Overall, major bleeding was relatively infrequent (1.7%). There was no significant increase in the unadjusted rates of major bleeding over time (P for trend = .19). In multivariable analysis adjusting for GRACE risk score and intensive treatment, enrolment period was not an independent predictor of bleeding (P for trend = .98). There was no interaction between the enrolment period and the use of intensive medical and invasive management. Despite more widespread use of dual anti-platelet therapies and invasive cardiac procedures in the management of NSTE-ACS, the rate of major bleeding remains relatively low and has not increased significantly over time. Our findings suggest that physicians selectively target treatment for their patients, and these evidence-based therapies can be safely administered to ACS patients in clinical practice. 2010 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Global and regional variability and change in terrestrial ecosystems net primary production and NDVI: A model-data comparison

DOE PAGES

Rafique, Rashid; Zhao, Fang; de Jong, Rogier; ...

2016-02-25

The net primary productivity (NPP) is commonly used for understanding the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems and their role in carbon cycle. We used a combination of the most recent NDVI and model–based NPP estimates (from five models of the TRENDY project) for the period 1982-2012, to study the role of terrestrial ecosystems in carbon cycle under the prevailing climate conditions. We found that 80% and 67% of the global land area showed positive NPP and NDVI values, respectively, for this period. The global NPP was estimated to be about 63 Pg C y -1, with an increase of 0.214 Pgmore » C y -1 y -1. Similarly, the global mean NDVI was estimated to be 0.33, with an increasing trend of 0.00041 y-1. The spatial patterns of NPP and NDVI demonstrated substantial variability, especially at the regional level, for most part of the globe. However, on temporal scale, both global NPP and NDVI showed a corresponding pattern of increase (decrease) for the duration of this study except for few years (e.g. 1990 and 1995-98). Generally, the Northern Hemisphere showed stronger NDVI and NPP increasing trends over time compared to the Southern Hemisphere; however, NDVI showed larger trends in Temperate regions while NPP showed larger trends in Boreal regions. Among the five models, the maximum and minimum NPP were produced by JULES (72.4 Pg C y -1) and LPJ (53.72 Pg C y -1) models, respectively. At latitudinal level, the NDVI and NPP ranges were ~0.035 y -1 to ~-0.016 y -1 and ~0.10 Pg C y -1 y -1 to ~-0.047 Pg C y -1 y -1, respectively. Overall, the results of this study suggest that the modeled NPP generally correspond to the NDVI trends in the temporal dimension. Lastly, the significant variability in spatial patterns of NPP and NDVI trends points to a need for research to understand the causes of these discrepancies between molded and observed ecosystem dynamics, and the carbon cycle.« less

On-road vehicle emission control in Beijing: past, present, and future.

PubMed

Wu, Ye; Wang, Renjie; Zhou, Yu; Lin, Bohong; Fu, Lixin; He, Kebin; Hao, Jiming

2011-01-01

Beijing, the capital of China, has experienced rapid motorization since 1990; a trend that is likely to continue. The growth in vehicles and the corresponding emissions create challenges to improving the urban air quality. In an effort to reduce the impact of vehicle emissions on urban air quality, Beijing has adopted a number of vehicle emission control strategies and policies since the mid 1990 s. These are classified into seven categories: (1) emission control on new vehicles; (2) emission control on in-use vehicles; (3) fuel quality improvements; (4) alternative-fuel and advanced vehicles; (5) economic policies; (6) public transport; and (7) temporal traffic control measures. Many have proven to be successful, such as the Euro emission standards, unleaded gasoline and low sulfur fuel, temporal traffic control measures during the Beijing Olympic Games, etc. Some, however, have been failures, such as the gasoline-to-LPG taxi retrofit program. Thanks to the emission standards for new vehicles as well as other controls, the fleet-average emission rates of CO, HC, NO(X), and PM(10) by each major vehicle category are decreasing over time. For example, gasoline cars decreased fleet-average emission factors by 12.5% for CO, 10.0% for HC, 5.8% for NO(X), and 13.0% for PM(10) annually since 1995, and such a trend is likely to continue. Total emissions for Beijing's vehicle fleet increased from 1995 to 1998. However, they show a clear and steady decrease between 1999 and 2009. In 2009, total emissions of CO, HC, NO(X), and PM(10) were 845,000 t, 121,000 t, 84,000 t, and 3700 t, respectively; with reductions of 47%, 49%, 47%, and 42%, relative to 1998. Beijing has been considered a pioneer in controlling vehicle emissions within China, similar to the role of California to the U.S. The continued rapid growth of vehicles, however, is challenging Beijing's policy-makers.

[Effect of terracing project on temporal-spatial variation of non-point source pollution load in Hujiashan watershed, China].

PubMed

Han, Qiang; Yu, Xing Xiu; Wang, Wei; Xu, Miao Miao; Ren, Rui; Zhang, Jia Peng

2017-04-18

Taking Hujiashan small watershed as the study area, based on the classified result of Landsat TM/ETM images of 2005, 2010 and 2015, combined with long-term field observation data, and used the export coefficient model, our study explored the effect of small watershed management project on temporal and spatial variation of total nitrogen (TN) load of non-point source pollution under the support of GIS technology. The results indicated that, due to the implementation of slope modification project, the area of cultivated land was significantly increased, while forest and bareland were decreased. The load of non-point source TN increased from 63208 kg in 2005 to 72778 kg in 2010, but reduced to 46876 kg in 2015. The contribution rate from residential areas was higher, the average contribution rate of the three periods was 53.5%, but it showed a decreasing trend year by year. The contribution rate of land use types was 45%, which showed an increasing trend year by year. The contribution rate of livestock was always low. From the spatial distribution, TN loading intensity was changed obviously after the terracing project. High load intensity zone was mainly concentrated on the slope of 5°-15° before terracing project. Nevertheless, high load intensity zone was concentrated on the slope of 15°-35° after terracing project, and 5°-8° had become a low load strength area. The TN load intensity changed little with time on the slope of 0°-8°, and it increased first and then decreased on the slope above 8°. With the treatment of sewage, garbage and livestock manure in rural areas, the output of nitrogen in the living and livestock breeding were significantly reduced. Due to the implementation of the project, the cultivated land area increased by 31%.

Reduction of atmospheric polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) during the 2008 Beijing Olympic games.

PubMed

Li, Yingming; Wang, Thanh; Wang, Pu; Ding, Lei; Li, Xiaomin; Wang, Yawei; Zhang, Qinghua; Li, An; Jiang, Guibin

2011-04-15

A total of 120 air samples were collected at three urban and one rural location in Beijing, China in the summers of 2007-2010, and before, during, and after the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games (BOG), in order to assess the effectiveness of long-term and short-term emission-control measures in reducing polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) in the atmosphere. During the BOG (August, 2008), the PCDD/Fs concentrations decreased to an average value of 1150 fg m(-3) (63 fg I-TEQ m(-3)), which was reduced by approximately 70% from the average in 2007 and by 29% from that in July 2008, before the Olympic event began. Although 2009-2010 levels of PCDD/Fs were significantly higher than 2008, the overall temporal trend was decreasing for summer months during the sampling campaign period. The apparent half-lives of atmospheric PCDD/Fs were estimated to be 3.2-5.8 years by statistically regressing the logarithm PCDD/Fs concentrations versus the number of years passed since 2006. The air concentrations of total suspended particulates (TSP) during the BOG ranged between 135 and 183 μg m(-3), showing a 52% reduction from 2007 and 26% decrease from those prior to the Olympic event. No significant relationships were found between meteorological parameters (temperature, humidity, and wind speed) and PCDD/Fs or TSP during the BOG, whereas the PCDD/Fs concentrations were significantly dependent on the air quality (p < 0.05, positive against TSP and negative against visibility). This work is one of few temporal trend studies of atmospheric PCDD/Fs in mainland China, and provides unique insight into the effects of large-scale control measures in improving air quality and reducing one of the most ubiquitous and toxic organic pollutants in the environment.

A Long-Term Macroecological Analysis of the Recovery of a Waterbird Metacommunity after Site Protection

PubMed Central

Pagel, Janina; Martínez-Abraín, Alejandro; Gómez, Juan Antonio; Jiménez, Juan; Oro, Daniel

2014-01-01

We used the so called “land-bridge island” or “nested-subsets” theory to test the resilience of a highly fragmented and perturbated waterbird metacommunity, after legal protection of 18 wetlands in the western Mediterranean. Sites were monitored during 28 years and two seasons per year. The metacommunity was composed by 44 species during breeding and 67 species during wintering, including shorebirds, ducks, herons, gulls and divers (Podicipedidae). We identified a strong nested pattern. Consistent with the fact that the study system was to a large extent a spatial biogeographical continuous for thousands of years, fragmented only during the last centuries due to human activities. Non-random selective extinction was the most likely historical process creating the nested pattern, operated by the differential carrying capacity (surface-area) of the remaining sites. We also found a positive temporal trend in nestedness and a decreasing trend in species turnover among sites (β-diversity), indicating that sites are increasingly more alike to each other (i.e. increased biotic homogenization). This decreasing trend in β-diversity was explained by an increasing trend in local (α) diversity by range expansion of half the study species. Regional (γ) diversity also increased over time, indicating that colonization from outside the study system also occurred. Overall our results suggest that the study metacommunity is recovering from historical anthropogenic perturbations, showing a high long-term resilience, as expected for highly vagile waterbirds. However, not all waterbird groups contributed equally to the recovery, with most breeding shorebird species and most wintering duck species showing no geographical expansion. PMID:25133798

Temporal Trends of Suicide Mortality in Mainland China: Results from the Age-Period-Cohort Framework.

PubMed

Wang, Zhenkun; Wang, Jinyao; Bao, Junzhe; Gao, Xudong; Yu, Chuanhua; Xiang, Huiyun

2016-08-03

The aim of this study is to explore the long-term trends of suicide mortality in China. We implemented the age-period-cohort (APC) framework, using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Our results showed that the net drift of suicide mortality was -4.727% (95% CI: -4.821% to -4.634%) per year for men and -6.633% (95% CI: -6.751% to -6.515%) per year for women, and the local drift values were below 0 in all age groups (p < 0.01 for all) for both sexes during the period of 1994-2013. Longitudinal age curves indicated that, in the same birth cohort, suicide death risk increased rapidly to peak at the life stage of 20-24 years old and 15-24 years old for men and women, respectively, and then showed a decelerated decline, followed by a rise thereafter after 54 years old for men and a slight one after 69 years old for women. The estimated period and cohort RRs were found to show similar monotonic downward patterns (significantly with p < 0.01 for all) for both sexes, with more quickly decreasing for women than for men during the whole period. The decreasing trend of suicide was likely to be related to the economic rapid growth, improvements in health care, enhancement on the level of education, and increasing awareness of suicide among the public in China. In addition, fast urbanization and the effective control of pesticides and rodenticides might be the special reasons behind these trends we observed in this study.

Regional variability in sea ice melt in a changing Arctic

PubMed Central

Perovich, Donald K.; Richter-Menge, Jacqueline A.

2015-01-01

In recent years, the Arctic sea ice cover has undergone a precipitous decline in summer extent. The sea ice mass balance integrates heat and provides insight on atmospheric and oceanic forcing. The amount of surface melt and bottom melt that occurs during the summer melt season was measured at 41 sites over the time period 1957 to 2014. There are large regional and temporal variations in both surface and bottom melting. Combined surface and bottom melt ranged from 16 to 294 cm, with a mean of 101 cm. The mean ice equivalent surface melt was 48 cm and the mean bottom melt was 53 cm. On average, surface melting decreases moving northward from the Beaufort Sea towards the North Pole; however interannual differences in atmospheric forcing can overwhelm the influence of latitude. Substantial increases in bottom melting are a major contributor to ice losses in the Beaufort Sea, due to decreases in ice concentration. In the central Arctic, surface and bottom melting demonstrate interannual variability, but show no strong temporal trends from 2000 to 2014. This suggests that under current conditions, summer melting in the central Arctic is not large enough to completely remove the sea ice cover. PMID:26032323

Nonmonotonic and spatial-temporal dynamic slope effects on soil erosion during rainfall-runoff processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Songbai; Yu, Minghui; Chen, Li

2017-02-01

The slope effect on flow erosivity and soil erosion still remains a controversial issue. This theoretical framework explained and quantified the direct slope effect by coupling the modified Green-Ampt equation accounting for slope effect on infiltration, 1-D kinematic wave overland flow routing model, and WEPP soil erosion model. The flow velocity, runoff rate, shear stress, interrill, and rill erosion were calculated on 0°-60° isotropic slopes with equal horizontal projective length. The results show that, for short-duration rainfall events, the flow erosivity and erosion amounts exhibit a bell-shaped trend which first increase with slope gradient, and then decrease after a critical slope angle. The critical slope angles increase significantly or even vanish with increasing rainfall duration but are nearly independent of the slope projective length. The soil critical shear stress, rainfall intensity, and temporal patterns have great influences on the slope effect trend, while the other soil erosion parameters, soil type, hydraulic conductivity, and antecedent soil moisture have minor impacts. Neglecting the slope effect on infiltration would generate smaller erosion and reduce critical slope angles. The relative slope effect on soil erosion in physically based model WEPP was compared to those in the empirical models USLE and RUSLE. The trends of relative slope effect were found quite different, but the difference may diminish with increasing rainfall duration. Finally, relatively smaller critical slope angles could be obtained with the equal slope length and the range of variation provides a possible explanation for the different critical slope angles reported in previous studies.

Trends in chlorinated hydrocarbon levels in Hudson River basin sediments.

PubMed Central

Bopp, R F; Chillrud, S N; Shuster, E L; Simpson, H J; Estabrooks, F D

1998-01-01

Analysis of sections from dated sediment cores were used to establish geographic distributions and temporal trends of chlorinated hydrocarbon contaminant levels in sediments from natural waters of the Hudson River basin. Radiometric dating was based primarily on the depth distribution of 137(Cs) in the cores and on the occurrence of detectable levels of 7(Be) in surface sediment samples. Eighteen sampling sites included several along the main stem of the Hudson, its major tributaries, and components of the New York/New Jersey (NY/NJ) harbor complex. Drinking-water reservoirs were sampled to place upper limits on atmospheric inputs. Core sections were analyzed for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), 1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl) ethane (DDT)-derived compounds, chlordane, and dioxins. Sediment concentrations of most contaminants at most sites have decreased significantly since the mid-1960s. The data provide a basinwide perspective on major point-source inputs of PCBs to the upper Hudson River and of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin and DDT to the lower Passaic River. Evidence was found for significant but poorly characterized sources of PCBs and chlordane to the western NY/NJ harbor, and of highly chlorinated dioxins to the upstream sites on the main stem of the Hudson. The results indicate that analysis of dated sediment samples is a most effective and efficient monitoring tool for the study of large-scale geographic and temporal trends in levels of particle-associated contaminants. Images Figure 1 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 PMID:9703496

Time trends (1998-2007) in brain cancer incidence rates in relation to mobile phone use in England.

PubMed

de Vocht, Frank; Burstyn, Igor; Cherrie, John W

2011-07-01

Mobile phone use in the United Kingdom and other countries has risen steeply since the early 1990's when the first digital mobile phones were introduced. There is an ongoing controversy about whether radio frequency (RF) exposure from mobile phones increases the risk of brain cancer. However, given the widespread use and nearly two decades elapsing since mobile phones were introduced, an association should have produced a noticeable increase in the incidence of brain cancer by now. Trends in rates of newly diagnosed brain cancer cases in England between 1998 and 2007 were examined. There were no time trends in overall incidence of brain cancers for either gender, or any specific age group. Systematic increases in rates for cancers of the temporal lobe in men (0.04 new cases/year) and women (0.02/year) were observed, along with decreases in the rates of cancers of the parietal lobe (-0.03/year), cerebrum (-0.02/year) and cerebellum (-0.01/year) in men only. The increased use of mobile phones between 1985 and 2003 has not led to a noticeable change in the incidence of brain cancer in England between 1998 and 2007. The observed increase in the rate of cancers in the temporal lobe, if caused by mobile phone use, would constitute <1 additional case per 100,000 people in that period. These data do not indicate a pressing need to implement a precautionary principle by means of population-wide interventions to reduce RF exposure from mobile phones. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Using First Differences to Reduce Inhomogeneity in Radiosonde Temperature Datasets.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Free, Melissa; Angell, James K.; Durre, Imke; Lanzante, John; Peterson, Thomas C.; Seidel, Dian J.

2004-11-01

The utility of a “first difference” method for producing temporally homogeneous large-scale mean time series is assessed. Starting with monthly averages, the method involves dropping data around the time of suspected discontinuities and then calculating differences in temperature from one year to the next, resulting in a time series of year-to-year differences for each month at each station. These first difference time series are then combined to form large-scale means, and mean temperature time series are constructed from the first difference series. When applied to radiosonde temperature data, the method introduces random errors that decrease with the number of station time series used to create the large-scale time series and increase with the number of temporal gaps in the station time series. Root-mean-square errors for annual means of datasets produced with this method using over 500 stations are estimated at no more than 0.03 K, with errors in trends less than 0.02 K decade-1 for 1960 97 at 500 mb. For a 50-station dataset, errors in trends in annual global means introduced by the first differencing procedure may be as large as 0.06 K decade-1 (for six breaks per series), which is greater than the standard error of the trend. Although the first difference method offers significant resource and labor advantages over methods that attempt to adjust the data, it introduces an error in large-scale mean time series that may be unacceptable in some cases.

Weight misperception and disordered weight control behaviors among U.S. high school students with overweight and obesity: Associations and trends, 1999-2013.

PubMed

Hazzard, Vivienne M; Hahn, Samantha L; Sonneville, Kendrin R

2017-08-01

To examine prevalence of weight misperception (incongruence between one's perceived weight status and one's actual weight status) and disordered weight control behaviors (DWCBs; unhealthy behaviors aiming to control or modify weight), associations between weight misperception and DWCBs, and temporal trends in prevalence and associations among adolescents with overweight and obesity from 1999 to 2013. Self-reported data from eight biennial cycles (1999-2013) of the cross-sectional national Youth Risk Behavior Survey were used in analyses restricted to respondents with overweight/obesity. Data on weight status perception, use of fasting, purging, and diet pills to control weight, sex, race/ethnicity, and grade in school were used in multivariate logistic regression models. Among U.S. high school students with overweight and obesity, no linear temporal trends were detected for prevalence of weight misperception, fasting, or purging between 1999 and 2013, while a significant linear decrease was observed for prevalence of diet pill use between 1999 and 2013 (b=-0.81, p<0.01). Using data pooled across 1999-2013, weight misperception predicted lower use of all DWCBs examined in this study among females and lower use of fasting to control weight among males. No significant changes over time in associations of weight misperception with fasting or purging were observed, though the association between weight misperception and diet pill use weakened somewhat across 1999-2013. In the context of increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity, weight misperception appears to be a robust protective factor for DWCBs. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Temporal trends of bulk precipitation and stream water chemistry (1977-1997) in a small forested area, Krusne hory, northern Bohemia, Czech Republic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peters, N.E.; Cerny, J.; Havel, M.; Krejci, R.

1999-01-01

The Krusne hory (Erzgebirge or Ore Mountains) has been heavily affected by high atmospheric pollutant deposition caused by fossil fuel combustion in an adjacent Tertiary coal basin. Long-term routine sampling of bulk precipitation (1977-1996) and stream water (1977-1998) in a forested area on the south-eastern slope of the mountains were used to evaluate trends and patterns in solute concentration and flux with respect to controlling processes. From 1977 to 1996, the annual volume-weighted Ca2+ and SO42- concentrations decreased in bulk precipitation. However, after 1989, when a pronounced and continuous decrease occurred in coal production, annual volume-weighted concentrations decreased for most solutes, except H+. The concentration decreases were marked, with 1996 levels at or below 50% of those in 1989. The lack of a trend in H+ is attributed to similar decreases in both acid anions and neutralizing base cations. Stream water concentrations of most solutes, i.e. H+, Ca2+, Mg2+, SO42- and NO3-, were highest at the onset of sampling in 1977, decreased markedly from 1977 to 1983 and decreased more gradually from 1983 to 1998. The spruce forest die-back and removal reduced dry deposition of these solutes by reducing the filtering action, which was provided by the forest canopy. A notable decrease in stream water Ca2+ concentrations occurred after 1995 and may be due to the depletion of Ca2+, which was provided by catchment liming in 1986, 1988 and 1989. Solute flux trends in bulk atmospheric deposition and stream water generally were not significant and the lack of trend is attributed to the large interannual variability in precipitation quantity and runoff, respectively. All solutes except Na+ varied seasonally. The average seasonal concentrations varied between the solutes, but for most solutes were highest in winter and spring and lowest in summer, correlating with the seasonal trend and runoff. For Ca2+, Mg2+ and SO42-, the concentration minimum occurs in September and the maximum occurs in February or March, correlating with the seasonal baseflow. These solutes are primarily controlled by the contribution of soil water and groundwater to stream flow. During snowmelt, the meltwater generally causes concentrations to decrease as soil water and groundwater are diluted. For NO3, average minimum concentrations occur in August at the end of the growing season concurrent with the lowest stream flow, and the maximum occurs in February and March with high stream flow during snowmelt. Seasonal stream water NO3- concentration variations are large compared with the long-term decrease.The Krusne hory (Erzgebirge or Ore Mountains) has been heavily affected by high atmospheric pollutant deposition caused by fossil fuel combustion in an adjacent Tertiary coal basin. Long-term routine sampling of bulk precipitation (1977-1996) and stream water (1977-1998) in a forested area on the south-eastern slope of the mountains were used to evaluate trends and patterns in solute concentration and flux with respect to controlling processes. From 1977 to 1996, the annual volume-weighted Ca2+ and SO42- concentrations decreased in bulk precipitation. However, after 1989, when a pronounced and continuous decrease occurred in coal production, annual volume-weighted concentrations decreased for most solutes, except H+. The concentration decreases were marked, with 1996 levels at or below 50% of those in 1989. The lack of a trend in H+ is attributed to similar decreases in both acid anions and neutralizing base cations. Stream water concentrations of most solutes, i.e. H+, Ca2+, Mg2+, SO42- and NO3-, were highest at the onset of sampling in 1977, decreased markedly from 1977 to 1983 and decreased more gradually from 1983 to 1998. The spruce forest die-back and removal reduced dry deposition of these solutes by reducing the filtering action, which was provided by the forest canopy. A notable decrease in stream water Ca2+ concentrations occurred after 1995 an

Declining death rates reflect progress against cancer.

PubMed

Jemal, Ahmedin; Ward, Elizabeth; Thun, Michael

2010-03-09

The success of the "war on cancer" initiated in 1971 continues to be debated, with trends in cancer mortality variably presented as evidence of progress or failure. We examined temporal trends in death rates from all-cancer and the 19 most common cancers in the United States from 1970-2006. We analyzed trends in age-standardized death rates (per 100,000) for all cancers combined, the four most common cancers, and 15 other sites from 1970-2006 in the United States using joinpoint regression model. The age-standardized death rate for all-cancers combined in men increased from 249.3 in 1970 to 279.8 in 1990, and then decreased to 221.1 in 2006, yielding a net decline of 21% and 11% from the 1990 and 1970 rates, respectively. Similarly, the all-cancer death rate in women increased from 163.0 in 1970 to 175.3 in 1991 and then decreased to 153.7 in 2006, a net decline of 12% and 6% from the 1991 and 1970 rates, respectively. These decreases since 1990/91 translate to preventing of 561,400 cancer deaths in men and 205,700 deaths in women. The decrease in death rates from all-cancers involved all ages and racial/ethnic groups. Death rates decreased for 15 of the 19 cancer sites, including the four major cancers, with lung, colorectum and prostate cancers in men and breast and colorectum cancers in women. Progress in reducing cancer death rates is evident whether measured against baseline rates in 1970 or in 1990. The downturn in cancer death rates since 1990 result mostly from reductions in tobacco use, increased screening allowing early detection of several cancers, and modest to large improvements in treatment for specific cancers. Continued and increased investment in cancer prevention and control, access to high quality health care, and research could accelerate this progress.

Declining Death Rates Reflect Progress against Cancer

PubMed Central

Jemal, Ahmedin; Ward, Elizabeth; Thun, Michael

2010-01-01

Background The success of the “war on cancer” initiated in 1971 continues to be debated, with trends in cancer mortality variably presented as evidence of progress or failure. We examined temporal trends in death rates from all-cancer and the 19 most common cancers in the United States from 1970–2006. Methodology/Principal Findings We analyzed trends in age-standardized death rates (per 100,000) for all cancers combined, the four most common cancers, and 15 other sites from 1970–2006 in the United States using joinpoint regression model. The age-standardized death rate for all-cancers combined in men increased from 249.3 in 1970 to 279.8 in 1990, and then decreased to 221.1 in 2006, yielding a net decline of 21% and 11% from the 1990 and 1970 rates, respectively. Similarly, the all-cancer death rate in women increased from 163.0 in 1970 to 175.3 in 1991 and then decreased to 153.7 in 2006, a net decline of 12% and 6% from the 1991 and 1970 rates, respectively. These decreases since 1990/91 translate to preventing of 561,400 cancer deaths in men and 205,700 deaths in women. The decrease in death rates from all-cancers involved all ages and racial/ethnic groups. Death rates decreased for 15 of the 19 cancer sites, including the four major cancers, with lung, colorectum and prostate cancers in men and breast and colorectum cancers in women. Conclusions/Significance Progress in reducing cancer death rates is evident whether measured against baseline rates in 1970 or in 1990. The downturn in cancer death rates since 1990 result mostly from reductions in tobacco use, increased screening allowing early detection of several cancers, and modest to large improvements in treatment for specific cancers. Continued and increased investment in cancer prevention and control, access to high quality health care, and research could accelerate this progress. PMID:20231893

Temporal and spatial trends of organochlorine pesticides in Great Lakes precipitation.

PubMed

Sun, Ping; Backus, Sean; Blanchard, Pierrette; Hites, Ronald A

2006-04-01

Organochlorine pesticide concentrations in precipitation samples collected from 1997 to 2003 at seven Integrated Atmospheric Deposition Network sites around the Great Lakes are reported. The 28-day volume weighted mean concentrations of several pesticides, including gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH), endosulfan, hexachlorobenzene, chlordane, and DDE, showed significant seasonal trends. For current-use pesticides (endosulfan and gamma-HCH), their concentrations peaked in late spring to summer just after their agricultural application. For the banned pesticides, higher concentrations were observed in the winter due to their enhanced partitioning to particles and scavenging by snow. Long-term decreasing trends were observed for several pesticides such as gamma-HCH and DDE. On the other hand, beta-HCH showed significant increasing concentrations as a function of time at Brule River, Eagle Harbor, and Sleeping Bear Dunes. Generally, Chicago had the highest concentration of chlordanes, dieldrin, and DDT, indicating that urban areas could be a source for these compounds to precipitation. For gamma-HCH and endosulfans, Point Petre had the highest concentrations due to the application of these pesticides in the surrounding areas.

The influence of natural factors on the spatio-temporal distribution of Oncomelania hupensis.

PubMed

Cheng, Gong; Li, Dan; Zhuang, Dafang; Wang, Yong

2016-12-01

We analyzed the influence of natural factors, such as temperature, rainfall, vegetation and hydrology, on the spatio-temporal distribution of Oncomelania hupensis and explored the leading factors influencing these parameters. The results will provide reference methods and theoretical a basis for the schistosomiasis control. GIS (Geographic Information System) spatial display and analysis were used to describe the spatio-temporal distribution of Oncomelania hupensis in the study area (Dongting Lake in Hunan Province) from 2004 to 2011. Correlation analysis was used to detect the natural factors associated with the spatio-temporal distribution of O. hupensis. Spatial regression analysis was used to quantitatively analyze the effects of related natural factors on the spatio-temporal distribution of snails and explore the dominant factors influencing this parameter. (1) Overall, the spatio-temporal distribution of O. hupensis was governed by the comprehensive effects of natural factors. In the study area, the average density of living snails showed a downward trend, with the exception of a slight rebound in 2009. The density of living snails showed significant spatial clustering, and the degree of aggregation was initially weak but enhanced later. Regions with high snail density and towns with an HH distribution pattern were mostly distributed in the plain areas in the northwestern and inlet and outlet of the lake. (2) There were space-time differences in the influence of natural factors on the spatio-temporal distribution of O. hupensis. Temporally, the comprehensive influence of natural factors on snail distribution increased first and then decreased. Natural factors played an important role in snail distribution in 2005, 2006, 2010 and 2011. Spatially, it decreased from the northeast to the southwest. Snail distributions in more than 20 towns located along the Yuanshui River and on the west side of the Lishui River were less affected by natural factors, whereas relatively larger in areas around the outlet of the lake (Chenglingji) were more affected. (3) The effects of natural factors on the spatio-temporal distribution of O. hupensis were spatio-temporally heterogeneous. Rainfall, land surface temperature, NDVI, and distance from water sources all played an important role in the spatio-temporal distribution of O. hupensis. In addition, due to the effects of the local geographical environment, the direction of the influences the average annual rainfall, land surface temperature, and NDVI had on the spatio-temporal distribution of O. hupensis were all spatio-temporally heterogeneous, and both the distance from water sources and the history of snail distribution always had positive effects on the distribution O. hupensis, but the direction of the influence was spatio-temporally heterogeneous. (4) Of all the natural factors, the leading factors influencing the spatio-temporal distribution of O. hupensis were rainfall and vegetation (NDVI), and the primary factor alternated between these two. The leading role of rainfall decreased year by year, while that of vegetation (NDVI) increased from 2004 to 2011. The spatio-temporal distribution of O. hupensis was significantly influenced by natural factors, and the influences were heterogeneous across space and time. Additionally, the variation in the spatial-temporal distribution of O. hupensis was mainly affected by rainfall and vegetation. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir.

PubMed

Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, David; Mrkvička, Tomáš

2018-05-15

Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can provide a solid basis for a better understanding of processes in freshwater reservoirs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of newborn screening program blood spots for exposure assessment: declining levels of perluorinated compounds in New York State infants.

PubMed

Spliethoff, Henry M; Tao, Lin; Shaver, Shannon M; Aldous, Kenneth M; Pass, Kenneth A; Kannan, Kurunthachalam; Eadon, George A

2008-07-15

Temporal biomonitoring studies can assess changes in population exposures to contaminants, but collection of biological specimens with adequate representation and sufficient temporal resolution can be resource-intensive. Newborn Screening Programs (NSPs) collect blood as dried spots on filter paper from nearly all infants born in the United States (U.S.). In this study, we investigated the use of NSP blood spots for temporal biomonitoring by analyzing perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS), perfluorooctane sulfonamide (PFOSA), perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS), perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), and perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA) in 110 New York State (NYS) NSP blood spot composite specimens collected between 1997 and 2007, representing a total of 2640 infants. All analytes were detected in > or =90% of the specimens. Concentrations of PFOS, PFOSA, PFHxS, and PFOA exhibited significant exponential declines after the year 2000, coinciding with the phase-out in PFOS production in the U.S. Calculated disappearance half-lives for PFOS, PFHxS, and PFOA (4.4, 8.2, and 4.1 years, respectively) were similar to biological half-lives reported for retired fluorochemical workers. Our results suggest sharp decreases in perinatal exposure of NYS infants to PFOS, PFOSA, PFHxS, and PFOA and demonstrate, for the first time, the utility of NSP blood spots for assessment of temporal trends in exposure.

Divergent drivers of the spatial and temporal variations of cropland carbon transfer in Liaoning province, China.

PubMed

Zhu, Xian-Jin; Zhang, Han-Qi; Zhao, Tian-Hong; Li, Jian-Dong; Yin, Hong

2017-10-12

Spatial and temporal variations are important points of focus in ecological research. Analysing their differences improves our understanding on the variations of ecological phenomena. Using data from the Liaoning Statistical Yearbook, we investigated the spatial and temporal variations of cropland carbon transfer (CCT), an important ecological phenomenon in quantifying the regional carbon budget, in particular, the influencing factors and difference. The results showed that, from 1992 to 2014, the average CCT in Liaoning province was 18.56 TgC yr -1 and decreased from northwest to southeast. CCT spatial variation was primarily affected by the ratio of planting area to regional area (RPR) via its effect on the magnitude of carbon transfer (MCT), which depended mainly on fertilizer usage per area (FUA). From 1992 to 2014, CCT exhibited a significantly increasing trend with a rate of 0.48 TgC yr -1 . The inter-annual variation of CCT was dominated by carbon transfer per planting area (CTP) through its effect on MCT, which significantly correlated with FUA but showed no significant correlation with climatic factors. Therefore, the factors affecting the spatial variation of CCT differed from those that affected its inter-annual variation, indicating that the spatial and temporal variations of ecological phenomena were affected by divergent factors.

Spatiotemporal changes in vegetation net primary productivity in the arid region of Northwest China, 2001 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhen; Pan, Jinghu

2018-03-01

Net primary productivity (NPP) is recognized as an important index of ecosystem conditions and a key variable of the terrestrial carbon cycle. It also represents the comprehensive effects of climate change and anthropogenic activity on terrestrial vegetation. In this study, the temporal-spatial pattern of NPP for the period 2001-2012 was analyzed using a remote sensing-based carbon model (i.e., the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach, CASA) in addition to other methods, such as linear trend analysis, standard deviation, and the Hurst index. Temporally, NPP showed a significant increasing trend for the arid region of Northwest China (ARNC), with an annual increase of 2.327 g C. Maximum and minimum productivity values appeared in July and December, respectively. Spatially, the NPP was relatively stable in the temperate and warm-temperate desert regions of Northwest China, while temporally, it showed an increasing trend. However, some attention should be given to the northwestern warm-temperate desert region, where there is severe continuous degradation and only a slight improvement trend.

Temporal trend and nationwide utility for hysterectomies in Taiwan, 1997-2010.

PubMed

Huang, Wei-Yi; Huang, Kuo-How; Chang, Wen-Chun; Wu, Shiao-Chi

2016-10-01

This study investigates the nationwide utilization and temporal trend of hysterectomies in Taiwan. The present study used the National Health Insurance Research Database that included claims of nearly the entire population in Taiwan since the inception of the National Health Insurance program in 1995. We analyzed age-adjusted rates of hysterectomies in Taiwan from 1997 through to 2010 and compared with the rates in 16 countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. We also examined the utilization of various types of hysterectomies in Taiwan during this period. There was a cross-country variation in the age-standardized rate of hysterectomy: 105 per 100,000 females in Spain, 156 per 100,000 females in Taiwan, 179 per 100,000 females in 16 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, and 325 per 100,000 females in the United States in 2008. The trend of the age-standardized rate of hysterectomy in Taiwan declined from 222.3 per 100,000 women in 1998 to 145.2 per 100,000 women in 2010. The most common type of hysterectomy during this period was total abdominal hysterectomy (51.2%). Subtotal hysterectomies increased by 117% (r 2 =0.89; p<0.01), from 672 in 1997 to 1458 in 2010; however, total hysterectomies decreased by 3.5% (r 2 =0.43; p=0.01), from 20,966 in 1997 to 20,230 in 2010. Laparoscopically assisted procedures (laparoscopic supracervical hysterectomy and laparoscopic hysterectomy) increased 4.98-fold (r 2 =0.23; p=0.09), from 1453 in 1997 to 8684 in 2010. By contrast, the proportion of conventional open hysterectomies (total abdominal hysterectomy, and subtotal or supracervical abdominal hysterectomy) decreased by 36.5% (r 2 =0.59; p<0.01), from 17,327 in 1997 to 10,994 in 2010. The proportion of vaginal hysterectomies decreased by 29.7% (r 2 =0.72; p<0.01), from 2858 in 1997 to 2010 in 2010. As in most Western countries, hysterectomy rates in Taiwan declined by year. There was a marked shift in the types of hysterectomies from 1997 through to 2010 in Taiwan. Minimally invasive surgeries and supracervical hysterectomies were more commonly adopted. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Adjustment of Pesticide Concentrations for Temporal Changes in Analytical Recovery, 1992-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Jeffrey D.; Stone, Wesley W.; Wydoski, Duane S.; Sandstrom, Mark W.

2009-01-01

Recovery is the proportion of a target analyte that is quantified by an analytical method and is a primary indicator of the analytical bias of a measurement. Recovery is measured by analysis of quality-control (QC) water samples that have known amounts of target analytes added ('spiked' QC samples). For pesticides, recovery is the measured amount of pesticide in the spiked QC sample expressed as percentage of the amount spiked, ideally 100 percent. Temporal changes in recovery have the potential to adversely affect time-trend analysis of pesticide concentrations by introducing trends in environmental concentrations that are caused by trends in performance of the analytical method rather than by trends in pesticide use or other environmental conditions. This report examines temporal changes in the recovery of 44 pesticides and 8 pesticide degradates (hereafter referred to as 'pesticides') that were selected for a national analysis of time trends in pesticide concentrations in streams. Water samples were analyzed for these pesticides from 1992 to 2006 by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. Recovery was measured by analysis of pesticide-spiked QC water samples. Temporal changes in pesticide recovery were investigated by calculating robust, locally weighted scatterplot smooths (lowess smooths) for the time series of pesticide recoveries in 5,132 laboratory reagent spikes; 1,234 stream-water matrix spikes; and 863 groundwater matrix spikes. A 10-percent smoothing window was selected to show broad, 6- to 12-month time scale changes in recovery for most of the 52 pesticides. Temporal patterns in recovery were similar (in phase) for laboratory reagent spikes and for matrix spikes for most pesticides. In-phase temporal changes among spike types support the hypothesis that temporal change in method performance is the primary cause of temporal change in recovery. Although temporal patterns of recovery were in phase for most pesticides, recovery in matrix spikes was greater than recovery in reagent spikes for nearly every pesticide. Models of recovery based on matrix spikes are deemed more appropriate for adjusting concentrations of pesticides measured in groundwater and stream-water samples than models based on laboratory reagent spikes because (1) matrix spikes are expected to more closely match the matrix of environmental water samples than are reagent spikes and (2) method performance is often matrix dependent, as was shown by higher recovery in matrix spikes for most of the pesticides. Models of recovery, based on lowess smooths of matrix spikes, were developed separately for groundwater and stream-water samples. The models of recovery can be used to adjust concentrations of pesticides measured in groundwater or stream-water samples to 100 percent recovery to compensate for temporal changes in the performance (bias) of the analytical method.