Grey Situation Group Decision-Making Method Based on Prospect Theory

PubMed Central

Zhang, Na; Fang, Zhigeng; Liu, Xiaqing

2014-01-01

This paper puts forward a grey situation group decision-making method on the basis of prospect theory, in view of the grey situation group decision-making problems that decisions are often made by multiple decision experts and those experts have risk preferences. The method takes the positive and negative ideal situation distance as reference points, defines positive and negative prospect value function, and introduces decision experts' risk preference into grey situation decision-making to make the final decision be more in line with decision experts' psychological behavior. Based on TOPSIS method, this paper determines the weight of each decision expert, sets up comprehensive prospect value matrix for decision experts' evaluation, and finally determines the optimal situation. At last, this paper verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of the method by means of a specific example. PMID:25197706

Towards a Decision Support Tool for 3d Visualisation: Application to Selectivity Purpose of Single Object in a 3d City Scene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuville, R.; Pouliot, J.; Poux, F.; Hallot, P.; De Rudder, L.; Billen, R.

2017-10-01

This paper deals with the establishment of a comprehensive methodological framework that defines 3D visualisation rules and its application in a decision support tool. Whilst the use of 3D models grows in many application fields, their visualisation remains challenging from the point of view of mapping and rendering aspects to be applied to suitability support the decision making process. Indeed, there exists a great number of 3D visualisation techniques but as far as we know, a decision support tool that facilitates the production of an efficient 3D visualisation is still missing. This is why a comprehensive methodological framework is proposed in order to build decision tables for specific data, tasks and contexts. Based on the second-order logic formalism, we define a set of functions and propositions among and between two collections of entities: on one hand static retinal variables (hue, size, shape…) and 3D environment parameters (directional lighting, shadow, haze…) and on the other hand their effect(s) regarding specific visual tasks. It enables to define 3D visualisation rules according to four categories: consequence, compatibility, potential incompatibility and incompatibility. In this paper, the application of the methodological framework is demonstrated for an urban visualisation at high density considering a specific set of entities. On the basis of our analysis and the results of many studies conducted in the 3D semiotics, which refers to the study of symbols and how they relay information, the truth values of propositions are determined. 3D visualisation rules are then extracted for the considered context and set of entities and are presented into a decision table with a colour coding. Finally, the decision table is implemented into a plugin developed with three.js, a cross-browser JavaScript library. The plugin consists of a sidebar and warning windows that help the designer in the use of a set of static retinal variables and 3D environment parameters.

Eliciting societal preferences of reimbursement decision criteria for anti cancer drugs in South Korea.

PubMed

Kwon, Sun-Hong; Park, Sun-Kyeong; Byun, Ji-Hye; Lee, Eui-Kyung

2017-08-01

In order to look beyond the cost-effectiveness analysis, this study used a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), which reflects societal values with regard to reimbursement decisions. This study aims to elicit societal preferences of the reimbursement decision criteria for anti cancer drugs from public and healthcare professionals. Eight criteria were defined based on a literature review and focus group sessions: disease severity, disease population size, pediatrics targets, unmet needs, innovation, clinical benefits, cost-effectiveness, and budget impacts. Using quota sampling and purposive sampling, 300 participants from the Korean public and 30 healthcare professionals were selected for the survey. Preferences were elicited using an analytic hierarchy process. Both groups rated clinical benefits the highest, followed by cost-effectiveness and disease severity, but differed with regard to disease population size and unmet needs. Innovation was the least preferred criteria. Clinical benefits and other social values should be reflected appropriately with cost-effectiveness in healthcare coverage. MCDA can be used to assess decision priorities for complicated health policy decisions, including reimbursement decisions. It is a promising method for making logical and transparent drug reimbursement decisions that consider a broad range of factors, which are perceived as important by relevant stakeholders.

New integrated and multiscale decision-aiding framework in a context of imperfect information: application to the assessment of torrent checkdams' effectiveness.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tacnet, Jean-Marc; Carladous, Simon; Dezert, Jean; Batton-Hubert, Mireille

2017-04-01

Mountain natural phenomena (e.g. torrential floods) put people and buildings at risk. Civil engineering protection works such as torrent check-dams are designed to mitigate those natural risks. Protection works act on both causes and effects of phenomena to reduce consequences and therefore risks. For instance, check-dams control sediment production and liquid/solid flow of torrential floods: several series of dams are located in the headwaters of a watershed, each having specific functions. All those works are damaged by time passing and flood impacts. Effectiveness assessment is needed to define, compare or choose strategies for investment and maintenance which are essential issues in risk management process. Decision support tools are expected to analyze at different scales both their technical effectiveness (related to their structural state and functional effects on phenomena such as stopping, braking, guiding, etc.) and their economic efficiency through comparison between benefits and costs. Several methods, often based on expert knowledge, have already been developed to care about decision under risk. But uncertainty has also to be considered, since decisions are indeed often taken in a context of lack of information and knowledge on natural phenomena, heterogeneity of available information and, finally, reliability of sources. First methods derived from classical industrial contexts, such as dependability analysis, are used to formalize expert knowledge used for decision-making. After having defined the concept of effectiveness, dependability analysis are used to identify decision contexts and problems: criteria and indicators are identified in relation with structural or functional features. Then, innovative and multi-scales multi-criteria decision-making methods (MCDMs) and frameworks are proposed to help assessing protection works effectiveness. They combine classical MCDM approaches, belief function, fuzzy sets and possibility theories. Those methods allow to make decisions based on heterogeneous, imprecise and uncertain evaluation of criteria provided by more or less reliable sources in an uncertain context: COWA-ER (Cautious Ordered Weighted Averaging with Evidential Reasoning), Fuzzy-Cautious OWA or ER-MCDA (Evidential Reasoning for Multi Criteria Decision Analysis) are thus applied to several scales of torrent check-dams' effectiveness assessment. Those methods are then improved for a better knowledge representation and final decision. Enhanced methods are then associated together. Finally, individual problems and associated methods are integrated in a generic methodology to move from torrential protective single measure effectiveness assessment to complete protection systems at watershed scale.

Relatively Recursive Rational Choice.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-11-01

for the decision procedure of recursively representable rational choice. Alternatively phrased, we wish to inquire into its degrees of unsolvability. We...may first make the observation that there are three classic notions of reducibility of decision procedures for subsets of the natural numbers... rational choice function defined as an effectively computable represent- ation of Richter’s [1971] concept of rational choice, attains by means of an

Research on Decision-Making Support of Chineserural Land Tenure Information System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Jun; Su, Hongyou

Since 1949, the information of land tenure has a positive effect on defining the scope of collective land and state-owned land, implementing the system of cultivated land protection and land use control, designing general land use planning, etc. But as the economic and social development, the existing land tenure information is not appropriate anymore and results in many problems. The emphasis in the near future should be placed on establishing rural land tenure information system including cadastral management system, the uniform property registration system and cadastral management information system, defining the scope and content of various collective land ownership, securing peasants' land tenure rights, shortening the gap between urban and rural areas, all of which will guarantee the effective use of information of land tenure for the government's decision-making.

Category mistakes: A barrier to effective environmental management.

PubMed

Wallace, Ken J; Jago, Mark

2017-09-01

How entities, the things that exist, are defined and categorised affects all aspects of environmental management including technical descriptions, quantitative analyses, participatory processes, planning, and decisions. Consequently, ambiguous definitions and wrongly assigning entities to categories, referred to as category mistakes, are barriers to effective management. Confusion caused by treating the term 'biodiversity' variously as the property of an area, the biota of an area, and a preferred end state (a value) - quite different categories of entities - is one example. To overcome such difficulties, we develop and define four entity categories - elements, processes, properties, and values - and two derived categories - states and systems. We argue that adoption of these categories and definitions will significantly improve environmental communication and analysis, and thus strengthen planning and decision-making. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Decisions in case of "problematic" cost-effectiveness ratios based on the example of a clinical trial in rehabilitation care].

PubMed

Leidl, R; Jacobi, E; Knab, J; Schweikert, B

2006-04-01

Economic assessment of an additional psychological intervention in the rehabilitation of patients with chronic low-back pain and evaluation of results by decision makers. Piggy-back cost-utility analysis of a randomised clinical trial, including a bootstrap analysis. Costs were measured by using the cost accounting systems of the rehabilitation clinics and by surveying patients. Health-related quality of life was measured using the EQ-5D. Implications of different representations of the decision problem and corresponding decision rules concerning the cost-effectiveness plane are discussed. As compared with the 126 patients of the control arm, the 98 patients in the intervention arm gained 3.5 days in perfect health on average as well as 1219 euro cost saving. However, because of the uncertainty involved, the results of a bootstrap analysis cover all quadrants of the cost-effectiveness plane. Using maximum willingness-to-pay per effect unit gained, decision rules can be defined for parts of the cost-effectiveness plane. These have to be aggregated in a further valuation step. Study results show that decisions on stochastic economic evaluation results may require an additional valuation step aggregating the various parts of the cost-effectiveness plane.

How is shared decision-making defined among African-Americans with diabetes?

PubMed

Peek, Monica E; Quinn, Michael T; Gorawara-Bhat, Rita; Odoms-Young, Angela; Wilson, Shannon C; Chin, Marshall H

2008-09-01

This study investigates how shared decision-making (SDM) is defined by African-American patients with diabetes, and compares patients' conceptualization of SDM with the Charles model. We utilized race-concordant interviewers/moderators to conduct in-depth interviews and focus groups among a purposeful sample of African-American patients with diabetes. Each interview/focus group was audio-taped, transcribed verbatim and imported into Atlas.ti software. Coding was done using an iterative process and each transcription was independently coded by two members of the research team. Although the conceptual domains were similar, patient definitions of what it means to "share" in the decision-making process differed significantly from the Charles model of SDM. Patients stressed the value of being able to "tell their story and be heard" by physicians, emphasized the importance of information sharing rather than decision-making sharing, and included an acceptable role for non-adherence as a mechanism to express control and act on treatment preferences. Current instruments may not accurately measure decision-making preferences of African-American patients with diabetes. Future research should develop instruments to effectively measure decision-making preferences within this population. Emphasizing information-sharing that validates patients' experiences may be particularly meaningful to African-Americans with diabetes.

From guideline modeling to guideline execution: defining guideline-based decision-support services.

PubMed Central

Tu, S. W.; Musen, M. A.

2000-01-01

We describe our task-based approach to defining the guideline-based decision-support services that the EON system provides. We categorize uses of guidelines in patient-specific decision support into a set of generic tasks--making of decisions, specification of work to be performed, interpretation of data, setting of goals, and issuance of alert and reminders--that can be solved using various techniques. Our model includes constructs required for representing the knowledge used by these techniques. These constructs form a toolkit from which developers can select modeling solutions for guideline task. Based on the tasks and the guideline model, we define a guideline-execution architecture and a model of interactions between a decision-support server and clients that invoke services provided by the server. These services use generic interfaces derived from guideline tasks and their associated modeling constructs. We describe two implementations of these decision-support services and discuss how this work can be generalized. We argue that a well-defined specification of guideline-based decision-support services will facilitate sharing of tools that implement computable clinical guidelines. PMID:11080007

An Overview of Value, Perspective, and Decision Context-A Health Economics Approach: An ISPOR Special Task Force Report [2].

PubMed

Garrison, Louis P; Pauly, Mark V; Willke, Richard J; Neumann, Peter J

2018-02-01

The second section of our Special Task Force builds on the discussion of value and perspective in the previous article of the report by 1) defining a health economics approach to the concept of value in health care systems; 2) discussing the relationship of value to perspective and decision context, that is, how recently proposed value frameworks vary by the types of decisions being made and by the stakeholders involved; 3) describing the patient perspective on value because the patient is a key stakeholder, but one also wearing the hat of a health insurance purchaser; and 4) discussing how value is relevant in the market-based US system of mixed private and public insurance, and differs from its use in single-payer systems. The five recent value frameworks that motivated this report vary in the types of decisions they intend to inform, ranging from coverage, access, and pricing decisions to those defining appropriate clinical pathways and to supporting provider-clinician shared decision making. Each of these value frameworks must be evaluated in its own decision context for its own objectives. Existing guidelines for cost-effectiveness analysis emphasize the importance of clearly specifying the perspective from which the analysis is undertaken. Relevant perspectives may include, among others, 1) the health plan enrollee, 2) the patient, 3) the health plan manager, 4) the provider, 5) the technology manufacturer, 6) the specialty society, 7) government regulators, or 8) society as a whole. A valid and informative cost-effectiveness analysis could be conducted from the perspective of any of these stakeholders, depending on the decision context. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

US Army Organizational Culture’s Effect on Innovation and Creativity

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-05-25

of high levels of hierarchical control, clearly defined roles, and centralized decision-making impede flexibility and creativity. When innovation is...of thinking people experience when they are deeply involved in a cohesive team. Members of cohesive decision...represent C.J. Jung’s basic theory on psychological types. In general, these preferences affect what people attend to and how they draw conclusions about

State Decision-Makers Guide for Hazardous Waste Management: Defining Hazardous Wastes, Problem Recognition, Land Use, Facility Operations, Conceptual Framework, Policy Issues, Transportation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Corson, Alan; And Others

Presented are key issues to be addressed by state, regional, and local governments and agencies in creating effective hazardous waste management programs. Eight chapters broadly frame the topics which state-level decision makers should consider. These chapters include: (1) definition of hazardous waste; (2) problem definition and recognition; (3)…

Crew collaboration in space: a naturalistic decision-making perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orasanu, Judith

2005-01-01

Successful long-duration space missions will depend on the ability of crewmembers to respond promptly and effectively to unanticipated problems that arise under highly stressful conditions. Naturalistic decision making (NDM) exploits the knowledge and experience of decision makers in meaningful work domains, especially complex sociotechnical systems, including aviation and space. Decision making in these ambiguous, dynamic, high-risk environments is a complex task that involves defining the nature of the problem and crafting a response to achieve one's goals. Goal conflicts, time pressures, and uncertain outcomes may further complicate the process. This paper reviews theory and research pertaining to the NDM model and traces some of the implications for space crews and other groups that perform meaningful work in extreme environments. It concludes with specific recommendations for preparing exploration crews to use NDM effectively.

Impulsivity and decision-making in obsessive-compulsive disorder after effective deep brain stimulation or treatment as usual.

PubMed

Grassi, Giacomo; Figee, Martijn; Ooms, Pieter; Righi, Lorenzo; Nakamae, Takashi; Pallanti, Stefano; Schuurman, Rick; Denys, Damiaan

2018-06-04

Impulsivity and impaired decision-making have been proposed as obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) endophenotypes, running in OCD and their healthy relatives independently of symptom severity and medication status. Deep brain stimulation (DBS) targeting the ventral limb of the internal capsule (vALIC) and the nucleus accumbens (Nacc) is an effective treatment strategy for treatment-refractory OCD. The effectiveness of vALIC-DBS for OCD has been linked to its effects on a frontostriatal network that is also implicated in reward, impulse control, and decision-making. While vALIC-DBS has been shown to restore reward dysfunction in OCD patients, little is known about the effects of vALIC-DBS on impulsivity and decision-making. The aim of the study was to compare cognitive impulsivity and decision-making between OCD patients undergoing effective vALIC-DBS or treatment as usual (TAU), and healthy controls. We used decision-making performances under ambiguity on the Iowa Gambling Task and reflection impulsivity on the Beads Task to compare 20 OCD patients effectively treated with vALIC-DBS, 40 matched OCD patients undergoing effective TAU (medication and/or cognitive behavioural therapy), and 40 healthy subjects. Effective treatment was defined as at least 35% improvement of OCD symptoms. OCD patients, irrespective of treatment modality (DBS or TAU), showed increased reflection impulsivity and impaired decision-making compared to healthy controls. No differences were observed between OCD patients treated with DBS or TAU. OCD patients effectively treated with vALIC-DBS or TAU display increased reflection impulsivity and impaired decision-making independent of the type of treatment.

Decision-case mix model for analyzing variation in cesarean rates.

PubMed

Eldenburg, L; Waller, W S

2001-01-01

This article contributes a decision-case mix model for analyzing variation in c-section rates. Like recent contributions to the literature, the model systematically takes into account the effect of case mix. Going beyond past research, the model highlights differences in physician decision making in response to obstetric factors. Distinguishing the effects of physician decision making and case mix is important in understanding why c-section rates vary and in developing programs to effect change in physician behavior. The model was applied to a sample of deliveries at a hospital where physicians exhibited considerable variation in their c-section rates. Comparing groups with a low versus high rate, the authors' general conclusion is that the difference in physician decision tendencies (to perform a c-section), in response to specific obstetric factors, is at least as important as case mix in explaining variation in c-section rates. The exact effects of decision making versus case mix depend on how the model application defines the obstetric condition of interest and on the weighting of deliveries by their estimated "risk of Cesarean." The general conclusion is supported by an additional analysis that uses the model's elements to predict individual physicians' annual c-section rates.

The Influence of Family and Significant Others on Women's Decisions to Obtain an Abortion: A Study of a Northwest Louisiana Abortion Clinic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Solomon, Bertina Loutrice

2011-01-01

This study researched whether family members and significant others influence a woman's decision to obtain an abortion. Influence is defined by Merriam-Webster (2011) as the power or capacity of causing an effect in indirect or intangible ways; power exerted over the minds or behaviors of others. The theoretical framework that will be used in…

How is Shared Decision-Making Defined among African-Americans with Diabetes?

PubMed Central

Peek, Monica E.; Quinn, Michael T.; Gorawara-Bhat, Rita; Odoms-Young, Angela; Wilson, Shannon C.; Chin, Marshall H.

2011-01-01

Objective This study investigates how shared decision-making (SDM) is defined by African-American patients with diabetes, and compares patients’ conceptualization of SDM with the Charles model. Methods We utilized race-concordant interviewers/moderators to conduct in-depth interviews and focus groups among a purposeful sample of African-American patients with diabetes. Each interview/focus group was audio-taped, transcribed verbatim and imported into Atlas.ti software. Coding was done using an iterative process and each transcription was independently coded by two members of the research team. Results Although the conceptual domains were similar, patient definitions of what it means to “share” in the decision-making process differed significantly from the Charles model of SDM. Patients stressed the value of being able to “tell their story and be heard” by physicians, emphasized the importance of information sharing rather than decision-making sharing, and included an acceptable role for non-adherence as a mechanism to express control and act on treatment preferences. Conclusion Current instruments may not accurately measure decision-making preferences of African-American patients with diabetes. Practice Implications Future research should develop instruments to effectively measure decision-making preferences within this population. Emphasizing information-sharing that validates patients’ experiences may be particularly meaningful to African-Americans with diabetes. PMID:18684581

Conducting Intelligent Business Dialogue.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hulbert, Jack E.

1980-01-01

Indicates that speaking skills (especially dialogue) are not adequately taught in management education. Describes effective dialogue as: defining the problem, gathering facts, interpreting the evidence, considering alternatives, and reaching decisions. Discusses various aspects of agreement and disagreement. (TJ)

Now or Later? An fMRI study of the effects of endogenous opioid blockade on a decision-making network

PubMed Central

Boettiger, Charlotte A.; Kelley, Elizabeth A.; Mitchell, Jennifer M.; D’Esposito, Mark; Fields, Howard L.

2009-01-01

Previously, we found that distinct brain areas predict individual selection bias in decisions between small immediate (“Now”) and larger delayed rewards (“Later”). Furthermore, such selection bias can be manipulated by endogenous opioid blockade. To test whether blocking endogenous opioids with Naltrexone (NTX) alters brain activity during decision-making in areas predicting individual bias, we compared fMRI BOLD signal correlated with Now versus Later decision-making after acute administration of NTX (50 mg) or placebo. We tested abstinent alcoholics and control subjects in a double-blind two-session design. We defined regions of interest (ROI) centered on activation peaks predicting Now versus Later selection bias. NTX administration significantly increased BOLD signal during decision-making in the right lateral orbital gyrus ROI, an area where enhanced activity during decision-making predicts Later bias. Exploratory analyses identified additional loci where BOLD signal during decision-making was enhanced (left orbitofrontal cortex, left inferior temporal gyrus, and cerebellum) or reduced (right superior temporal pole) by NTX. Additional analyses identified sites, including the right lateral orbital gyrus, in which NTX effects on BOLD signal predicted NTX effects on selection bias. These data agree with opioid receptor expression in human frontal and temporal cortices, and suggest possible mechanisms of NTX’s therapeutic effects. PMID:19258022

Clarifying values: an updated review

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Consensus guidelines have recommended that decision aids include a process for helping patients clarify their values. We sought to examine the theoretical and empirical evidence related to the use of values clarification methods in patient decision aids. Methods Building on the International Patient Decision Aid Standards (IPDAS) Collaboration’s 2005 review of values clarification methods in decision aids, we convened a multi-disciplinary expert group to examine key definitions, decision-making process theories, and empirical evidence about the effects of values clarification methods in decision aids. To summarize the current state of theory and evidence about the role of values clarification methods in decision aids, we undertook a process of evidence review and summary. Results Values clarification methods (VCMs) are best defined as methods to help patients think about the desirability of options or attributes of options within a specific decision context, in order to identify which option he/she prefers. Several decision making process theories were identified that can inform the design of values clarification methods, but no single “best” practice for how such methods should be constructed was determined. Our evidence review found that existing VCMs were used for a variety of different decisions, rarely referenced underlying theory for their design, but generally were well described in regard to their development process. Listing the pros and cons of a decision was the most common method used. The 13 trials that compared decision support with or without VCMs reached mixed results: some found that VCMs improved some decision-making processes, while others found no effect. Conclusions Values clarification methods may improve decision-making processes and potentially more distal outcomes. However, the small number of evaluations of VCMs and, where evaluations exist, the heterogeneity in outcome measures makes it difficult to determine their overall effectiveness or the specific characteristics that increase effectiveness. PMID:24625261

Decision trees in epidemiological research.

PubMed

Venkatasubramaniam, Ashwini; Wolfson, Julian; Mitchell, Nathan; Barnes, Timothy; JaKa, Meghan; French, Simone

2017-01-01

In many studies, it is of interest to identify population subgroups that are relatively homogeneous with respect to an outcome. The nature of these subgroups can provide insight into effect mechanisms and suggest targets for tailored interventions. However, identifying relevant subgroups can be challenging with standard statistical methods. We review the literature on decision trees, a family of techniques for partitioning the population, on the basis of covariates, into distinct subgroups who share similar values of an outcome variable. We compare two decision tree methods, the popular Classification and Regression tree (CART) technique and the newer Conditional Inference tree (CTree) technique, assessing their performance in a simulation study and using data from the Box Lunch Study, a randomized controlled trial of a portion size intervention. Both CART and CTree identify homogeneous population subgroups and offer improved prediction accuracy relative to regression-based approaches when subgroups are truly present in the data. An important distinction between CART and CTree is that the latter uses a formal statistical hypothesis testing framework in building decision trees, which simplifies the process of identifying and interpreting the final tree model. We also introduce a novel way to visualize the subgroups defined by decision trees. Our novel graphical visualization provides a more scientifically meaningful characterization of the subgroups identified by decision trees. Decision trees are a useful tool for identifying homogeneous subgroups defined by combinations of individual characteristics. While all decision tree techniques generate subgroups, we advocate the use of the newer CTree technique due to its simplicity and ease of interpretation.

Graphic Design: A Career Guide and Education Directory.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Poggenpohl, Sharon Helmer, Ed.

This guide aims to help students make informed decisions about careers in graphic design. The guide defines the purpose and practice of the graphic design field and identifies the strong link between effective educational programs and effective professional practices. Suggestions are given for evaluating schools and potential employers. Comments…

Decision Making for Healthcare Resource Allocation: Joint v. Separate Decisions on Interacting Interventions.

PubMed

Dakin, Helen; Gray, Alastair

2018-05-01

Standard guidance for allocating healthcare resources based on cost-effectiveness recommends using different decision rules for independent and mutually exclusive alternatives, although there is some confusion around the definition of "mutually exclusive." This paper reviews the definitions used in the literature and shows that interactions (i.e., non-additive effects, whereby the effect of giving 2 interventions simultaneously does not equal the sum of their individual effects) are the defining feature of mutually exclusive alternatives: treatments cannot be considered independent if the costs and/or benefits of one treatment are affected by the other treatment. The paper then identifies and categorizes the situations in which interventions are likely to have non-additive effects, including interventions targeting the same goal or clinical event, or life-saving interventions given to overlapping populations. We demonstrate that making separate decisions on interventions that have non-additive effects can prevent us from maximizing health gained from the healthcare budget. In contrast, treating combinations of independent options as though they were "mutually exclusive" makes the analysis more complicated but does not affect the conclusions. Although interactions are considered by the World Health Organization, other decision makers, such as the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), currently make independent decisions on treatments likely to have non-additive effects. We propose a framework by which interactions could be considered when selecting, prioritizing, and appraising healthcare technologies to ensure efficient, evidence-based decision making.

Decision Making for Healthcare Resource Allocation: Joint v. Separate Decisions on Interacting Interventions

PubMed Central

Dakin, Helen; Gray, Alastair

2018-01-01

Standard guidance for allocating healthcare resources based on cost-effectiveness recommends using different decision rules for independent and mutually exclusive alternatives, although there is some confusion around the definition of “mutually exclusive.” This paper reviews the definitions used in the literature and shows that interactions (i.e., non-additive effects, whereby the effect of giving 2 interventions simultaneously does not equal the sum of their individual effects) are the defining feature of mutually exclusive alternatives: treatments cannot be considered independent if the costs and/or benefits of one treatment are affected by the other treatment. The paper then identifies and categorizes the situations in which interventions are likely to have non-additive effects, including interventions targeting the same goal or clinical event, or life-saving interventions given to overlapping populations. We demonstrate that making separate decisions on interventions that have non-additive effects can prevent us from maximizing health gained from the healthcare budget. In contrast, treating combinations of independent options as though they were “mutually exclusive” makes the analysis more complicated but does not affect the conclusions. Although interactions are considered by the World Health Organization, other decision makers, such as the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), currently make independent decisions on treatments likely to have non-additive effects. We propose a framework by which interactions could be considered when selecting, prioritizing, and appraising healthcare technologies to ensure efficient, evidence-based decision making. PMID:29683792

Harnessing expert knowledge: Defining a Bayesian network decision model with limited data-Model structure for the vibration qualification problem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rizzo, Davinia B.; Blackburn, Mark R.

As systems become more complex, systems engineers rely on experts to inform decisions. There are few experts and limited data in many complex new technologies. This challenges systems engineers as they strive to plan activities such as qualification in an environment where technical constraints are coupled with the traditional cost, risk, and schedule constraints. Bayesian network (BN) models provide a framework to aid systems engineers in planning qualification efforts with complex constraints by harnessing expert knowledge and incorporating technical factors. By quantifying causal factors, a BN model can provide data about the risk of implementing a decision supplemented with informationmore » on driving factors. This allows a systems engineer to make informed decisions and examine “what-if” scenarios. This paper discusses a novel process developed to define a BN model structure based primarily on expert knowledge supplemented with extremely limited data (25 data sets or less). The model was developed to aid qualification decisions—specifically to predict the suitability of six degrees of freedom (6DOF) vibration testing for qualification. The process defined the model structure with expert knowledge in an unbiased manner. Finally, validation during the process execution and of the model provided evidence the process may be an effective tool in harnessing expert knowledge for a BN model.« less

Harnessing expert knowledge: Defining a Bayesian network decision model with limited data-Model structure for the vibration qualification problem

DOE PAGES

Rizzo, Davinia B.; Blackburn, Mark R.

2018-03-30

As systems become more complex, systems engineers rely on experts to inform decisions. There are few experts and limited data in many complex new technologies. This challenges systems engineers as they strive to plan activities such as qualification in an environment where technical constraints are coupled with the traditional cost, risk, and schedule constraints. Bayesian network (BN) models provide a framework to aid systems engineers in planning qualification efforts with complex constraints by harnessing expert knowledge and incorporating technical factors. By quantifying causal factors, a BN model can provide data about the risk of implementing a decision supplemented with informationmore » on driving factors. This allows a systems engineer to make informed decisions and examine “what-if” scenarios. This paper discusses a novel process developed to define a BN model structure based primarily on expert knowledge supplemented with extremely limited data (25 data sets or less). The model was developed to aid qualification decisions—specifically to predict the suitability of six degrees of freedom (6DOF) vibration testing for qualification. The process defined the model structure with expert knowledge in an unbiased manner. Finally, validation during the process execution and of the model provided evidence the process may be an effective tool in harnessing expert knowledge for a BN model.« less

Decision-Making Under Risk, but Not Under Ambiguity, Predicts Pathological Gambling in Discrete Types of Abstinent Substance Users.

PubMed

Wilson, Michael J; Vassileva, Jasmin

2018-01-01

This study explored how different forms of reward-based decision-making are associated with pathological gambling (PG) among abstinent individuals with prior dependence on different classes of drugs. Participants had lifetime histories of either "pure" heroin dependence ( n = 64), "pure" amphetamine dependence ( n = 51), or polysubstance dependence ( n = 89), or had no history of substance dependence ( n = 133). Decision-making was assessed via two neurocognitive tasks: (1) the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), a measure of decision-making under ambiguity (i.e., uncertain risk contingencies); and (2) the Cambridge Gambling task (CGT), a measure of decision-making under risk (i.e., explicit risk contingencies). The main effects of neurocognitive performance and drug class on PG (defined as ≥3 DSM-IV PG symptoms) as well as their interactional effects were assessed via multiple linear regression. Two CGT indices of decision-making under risk demonstrated positive main effects on PG. Interaction effects indicated that the effects of decision-making under risk on PG were largely consistent across participant groups. Notably, a linear relationship between greater CGT Risk-Taking and PG symptoms was not observed among amphetamine users, whereas IGT performance was selectively and positively associated with PG in polysubstance users. Overall, results indicate that reward-based decision-making under risk may represent a risk factor for PG across substance users, with some variations in these relationships influenced by specific class of substance of abuse.

PFC neurons reflect categorical decisions about ambiguous stimuli.

PubMed

Roy, Jefferson E; Buschman, Timothy J; Miller, Earl K

2014-06-01

We examined whether PFC neuron activity reflects categorical decisions in monkeys categorizing ambiguous stimuli. A morphing system was used to systematically vary stimulus shape and precisely define category boundaries. Ambiguous stimuli were centered on a category boundary, that is, they were a mix of 50% of two prototypes and therefore had no category information, so monkeys guessed at their category membership. We found that the monkeys' trial-by-trial decision about the category membership of an ambiguous image was reflected in PFC activity. Activity to the same ambiguous image differed significantly, depending on which category the monkey had assigned it to. This effect only occurred when that scheme was behaviorally relevant. These indicate that PFC activity reflects categorical decisions.

The Impact of Evaluation: Lessons Drawn from the Evaluations of Five Early Childhood Education Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Granville, Arthur C.; And Others

Five different program evaluations were described to indicate those qualities which make an evaluation effective or not effective. Evaluation effectiveness was defined as impact on decision making or long-term policy formation, and influence upon a variety of audiences. Robert D. Matz described the First Chance Project, and concluded that the…

A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

2014-10-01

Risk management of near-Earth objects (NEOs; e.g., asteroids and comets) that can potentially impact Earth is an important issue that took on added urgency with the Chelyabinsk event of February 2013. Thousands of NEOs large enough to cause substantial damage are known to exist, although only a small fraction of these have the potential to impact Earth in the next few centuries. The probability and location of a NEO impact are subject to complex physics and great uncertainty, and consequences can range from minimal to devastating, depending upon the size of the NEO and location of impact. Deflecting a potential NEO impactor would be complex and expensive, and inter-agency and international cooperation would be necessary. Such deflection campaigns may be risky in themselves, and mission failure may result in unintended consequences. The benefits, risks, and costs of different potential NEO risk management strategies have not been compared in a systematic fashion. We present a decision analysis framework addressing this hazard. Decision analysis is the science of informing difficult decisions. It is inherently multi-disciplinary, especially with regard to managing catastrophic risks. Note that risk analysis clarifies the nature and magnitude of risks, whereas decision analysis guides rational risk management. Decision analysis can be used to inform strategic, policy, or resource allocation decisions. First, a problem is defined, including the decision situation and context. Second, objectives are defined, based upon what the different decision-makers and stakeholders (i.e., participants in the decision) value as important. Third, quantitative measures or scales for the objectives are determined. Fourth, alternative choices or strategies are defined. Fifth, the problem is then quantitatively modeled, including probabilistic risk analysis, and the alternatives are ranked in terms of how well they satisfy the objectives. Sixth, sensitivity analyses are performed in order to examine the impact of uncertainties. Finally, the need for further analysis, data collection, or refinement is determined. The first steps of defining the problem and the objectives are critical to constructing an informative decision analysis. Such steps must be undertaken with participation from experts, decision-makers, and stakeholders (defined here as "decision participants"). The basic problem here can be framed as: “What is the best strategy to manage risk associated with NEOs?” Some high-level objectives might be to minimize: mortality and injuries, damage to critical infrastructure (e.g., power, communications and food distribution), ecosystem damage, property damage, ungrounded media and public speculation, resources expended, and overall cost. Another valuable objective would be to maximize inter-agency/government coordination. Some of these objectives (e.g., “minimize mortality”) are readily quantified (e.g., deaths and injuries averted). Others are less so (e.g., “maximize inter-agency/government coordination”), but these can be scaled. Objectives may be inversely related: e.g., a strategy that minimizes mortality may cost more. They are also unlikely to be weighted equally. Defining objectives and assessing their relative weight and interactions requires early engagement with decision participants. High-level decisions include whether to deflect a NEO, when to deflect, what is the best alternative for deflection/destruction, and disaster management strategies if an impact occurs. Important influences include, for example: NEO characteristics (orbital characteristics, diameter, mass, spin and composition), impact probability and location, interval between discovery and projected impact date, interval between discovery and deflection target date, costs of information collection, costs and technological feasibility of deflection alternatives, risks of deflection campaigns, requirements for inter-agency and international cooperation, and timing of informing the public. The analytical aspects of decision analysis center on estimation of the expected value (i.e. utility) of different alternatives. The expected value of an alternative is a function of the probability-weighted consequences, estimated using Bayesian calculations in a decision tree or influence diagram model. The result is a set of expected-value estimates for all alternatives evaluated that enables a ranking; the higher the expected value, the more preferred the alternative. A common way to include resource limitations is by framing the decision analysis in the context of economics (e.g., cost-effectiveness analysis). An important aspect of decision analysis in the NEO risk management case is the ability, known as sensitivity analysis, to examine the effect of parameter uncertainty upon decisions. The simplest way to evaluate uncertainty associated with the information used in a decision analysis is to adjust the input values one at a time (or simultaneously) to examine how the results change. Monte Carlo simulations can be used to adjust the inputs over ranges or distributions of values; statistical means then are used to determine the most influential variables. These techniques yield a measure known as the expected value of imperfect information. This value is highly informative, because it allows the decision-maker with imperfect information to evaluate the impact of using experiments, tests, or data collection (e.g. Earth-based observations, space-based remote sensing, etc.) to refine judgments; and indeed to estimate how much should be spent to reduce uncertainty.

Quantum-like dynamics of decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asano, Masanari; Basieva, Irina; Khrennikov, Andrei; Ohya, Masanori; Tanaka, Yoshiharu

2012-03-01

In cognitive psychology, some experiments for games were reported, and they demonstrated that real players did not use the “rational strategy” provided by classical game theory and based on the notion of the Nasch equilibrium. This psychological phenomenon was called the disjunction effect. Recently, we proposed a model of decision making which can explain this effect (“irrationality” of players) Asano et al. (2010, 2011) [23,24]. Our model is based on the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics, because psychological fluctuations inducing the irrationality are formally represented as quantum fluctuations Asano et al. (2011) [55]. In this paper, we reconsider the process of quantum-like decision-making more closely and redefine it as a well-defined quantum dynamics by using the concept of lifting channel, which is an important concept in quantum information theory. We also present numerical simulation for this quantum-like mental dynamics. It is non-Markovian by its nature. Stabilization to the steady state solution (determining subjective probabilities for decision making) is based on the collective effect of mental fluctuations collected in the working memory of a decision maker.

ECOLOGICAL POLICY: DEFINING APPROPRIATE ROLES FOR SCIENCE AND SCIENTISTS

EPA Science Inventory

Effectively resolving the typical ecological, natural resource, or environmental policy issue requires an array of scientific information as part of the input provided to decision-makers. In my experience, the ability of scientists (and scientific information) to constructively ...

Developing Information Systems for Competitive Intelligence Support.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hohhof, Bonnie

1994-01-01

Discusses issues connected with developing information systems for competitive intelligence support; defines the elements of an effective competitive information system; and summarizes issues affecting system design and implementation. Highlights include intelligence information; information needs; information sources; decision making; and…

Shared decision-making – transferring research into practice: the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

PubMed Central

Dolan, James G.

2008-01-01

Objective To illustrate how the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) can be used to promote shared decision-making and enhance clinician-patient communication. Methods Tutorial review. Results The AHP promotes shared decision making by creating a framework that is used to define the decision, summarize the information available, prioritize information needs, elicit preferences and values, and foster meaningful communication among decision stakeholders. Conclusions The AHP and related multi-criteria methods have the potential for improving the quality of clinical decisions and overcoming current barriers to implementing shared decision making in busy clinical settings. Further research is needed to determine the best way to implement these tools and to determine their effectiveness. Practice Implications Many clinical decisions involve preference-based trade-offs between competing risks and benefits. The AHP is a well-developed method that provides a practical approach for improving patient-provider communication, clinical decision-making, and the quality of patient care in these situations. PMID:18760559

Shared Problem Models and Crew Decision Making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

The importance of crew decision making to aviation safety has been well established through NTSB accident analyses: Crew judgment and decision making have been cited as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents in commercial air transport, general aviation, and military aviation. Yet the bulk of research on decision making has not proven helpful in improving the quality of decisions in the cockpit. One reason is that traditional analytic decision models are inappropriate to the dynamic complex nature of cockpit decision making and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions. A new model of dynamic naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove more useful for training or aiding cockpit decision making. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulation and National Transportation Safety Board accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation and reflect the crew's metacognitive skill. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking in response to a problem. This presentation will examine the relation between communication that serves to build performance. Implications of these findings for crew training will be discussed.

Decision Making in the Airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orasanu, Judith; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)

1995-01-01

The Importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful In improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking In response to a problem, This presentation will examine the relations between leadership, communication, decision making and overall crew performance. Implications of these findings for training will be discussed.

Numeracy moderates the influence of task-irrelevant affect on probability weighting.

PubMed

Traczyk, Jakub; Fulawka, Kamil

2016-06-01

Statistical numeracy, defined as the ability to understand and process statistical and probability information, plays a significant role in superior decision making. However, recent research has demonstrated that statistical numeracy goes beyond simple comprehension of numbers and mathematical operations. On the contrary to previous studies that were focused on emotions integral to risky prospects, we hypothesized that highly numerate individuals would exhibit more linear probability weighting because they would be less biased by incidental and decision-irrelevant affect. Participants were instructed to make a series of insurance decisions preceded by negative (i.e., fear-inducing) or neutral stimuli. We found that incidental negative affect increased the curvature of the probability weighting function (PWF). Interestingly, this effect was significant only for less numerate individuals, while probability weighting in more numerate people was not altered by decision-irrelevant affect. We propose two candidate mechanisms for the observed effect. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of Gain/Loss Framing in Cyber Defense Decision-Making

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bos, Nathan; Paul, Celeste; Gersh, John

Cyber defense requires decision making under uncertainty. Yet this critical area has not been a strong focus of research in judgment and decision-making. Future defense systems, which will rely on software-defined networks and may employ ‘moving target’ defenses, will increasingly automate lower level detection and analysis, but will still require humans in the loop for higher level judgment. We studied the decision making process and outcomes of 17 experienced network defense professionals who worked through a set of realistic network defense scenarios. We manipulated gain versus loss framing in a cyber defense scenario, and found significant effects in one ofmore » two focal problems. Defenders that began with a network already in quarantine (gain framing) used a quarantine system more than those that did not (loss framing). We also found some difference in perceived workload and efficacy. Alternate explanations of these findings and implications for network defense are discussed.« less

5 CFR 2634.904 - Confidential filer defined.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... activities in which the final decision or action will have a direct and substantial economic effect on the... have a substantial economic effect on the plant's interests, the engineer should be required to file a... maintaining an on-line contract database. The Assistant is not involved in contracting and has no other actual...

5 CFR 2634.904 - Confidential filer defined.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... activities in which the final decision or action will have a direct and substantial economic effect on the... have a substantial economic effect on the plant's interests, the engineer should be required to file a... maintaining an on-line contract database. The Assistant is not involved in contracting and has no other actual...

"Racial bias in mock juror decision-making: A meta-analytic review of defendant treatment": Correction to Mitchell et al. (2005).

PubMed

2017-06-01

Reports an error in "Racial Bias in Mock Juror Decision-Making: A Meta-Analytic Review of Defendant Treatment" by Tara L. Mitchell, Ryann M. Haw, Jeffrey E. Pfeifer and Christian A. Meissner ( Law and Human Behavior , 2005[Dec], Vol 29[6], 621-637). In the article, all of the numbers in Appendix A were correct, but the signs were reversed for z' in a number of studies, which are listed. Also, in Appendix B, some values were incorrect, some signs were reversed, and some values were missing. The corrected appendix is included. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2006-00971-001.) Common wisdom seems to suggest that racial bias, defined as disparate treatment of minority defendants, exists in jury decision-making, with Black defendants being treated more harshly by jurors than White defendants. The empirical research, however, is inconsistent--some studies show racial bias while others do not. Two previous meta-analyses have found conflicting results regarding the existence of racial bias in juror decision-making (Mazzella & Feingold, 1994, Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 24, 1315-1344; Sweeney & Haney, 1992, Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 10, 179-195). This research takes a meta-analytic approach to further investigate the inconsistencies within the empirical literature on racial bias in juror decision-making by defining racial bias as disparate treatment of racial out-groups (rather than focusing upon the minority group alone). Our results suggest that a small, yet significant, effect of racial bias in decision-making is present across studies, but that the effect becomes more pronounced when certain moderators are considered. The state of the research will be discussed in light of these findings. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Simulation analysis of route diversion strategies for freeway incident management : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-02-01

The purpose of this project was to investigate whether simulation models could : be used as decision aids for defining traffic diversion strategies for effective : incident management. A methodology was developed for using such a model to : determine...

Decision Making in Action: Applying Research to Practice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orasanu, Judith; Hart, Sandra G. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment: Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking in response to a problem. This presentation will examine the relations between leadership, communication, decision making and overall crew performance. Implications of these findings for training will be discussed.

Technology Infusion Challenges from a Decision Support Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adumitroaie, V.; Weisbin, C. R.

2009-01-01

In a restricted science budget environment and increasingly numerous required technology developments, the technology investment decisions within NASA are objectively more and more difficult to make such that the end results are satisfying the technical objectives and all the organizational constraints. Under these conditions it is rationally desirable to build an investment portfolio, which has the highest possible technology infusion rate. Arguably the path to infusion is subject to many influencing factors, but here only the challenges associated with the very initial stages are addressed: defining the needs and the subsequent investment decision-support process. It is conceivable that decision consistency and possibly its quality suffer when the decision-making process has limited or no traceability. This paper presents a structured decision-support framework aiming to provide traceable, auditable, infusion- driven recommendations towards a selection process in which these recommendations are used as reference points in further discussions among stakeholders. In this framework addressing well-defined requirements, different measures of success can be defined based on traceability to specific selection criteria. As a direct result, even by using simplified decision models the likelihood of infusion can be probed and consequently improved.

Experiences in Engaging the Public on Biotechnology Advances and Regulation

PubMed Central

Quinlan, M. Megan; Smith, Joe; Layton, Raymond; Keese, Paul; Agbagala, Ma. Lorelie U.; Palacpac, Merle B.; Ball, Louise

2016-01-01

Public input is often sought as part of the biosafety decision-making process. Information and communication about the advances in biotechnology are part of the first step to engagement. This step often relies on the developers and introducers of the particular innovation, for example, an industry-funded website has hosted various authorities to respond to questions from the public. Alternative approaches to providing information have evolved, as demonstrated in sub-Saharan Africa where non-governmental organizations and associations play this role in some countries and subregions. Often times, those in the public who choose to participate in engagement opportunities have opinions about the overall biosafety decision process. Case-by-case decisions are made within defined regulatory frameworks, however, and in general, regulatory consultation does not provide the opportunity for input to the overall decision-making process. The various objectives on both sides of engagement can make the experience challenging; there are no clear metrics for success. The situation is challenging because public input occurs within the context of the local legislative framework, regulatory requirements, and the peculiarities of the fairly recent biosafety frameworks, as well as of public opinion and individual values. Public engagement may be conducted voluntarily, or may be driven by legislation. What can be taken into account by the decision makers, and therefore what will be gathered and the timing of consultation, also may be legally defined. Several practical experiences suggest practices for effective engagement within the confines of regulatory mandates: (1) utilizing a range of resources to facilitate public education and opportunities for understanding complex technologies; (2) defining in advance the goal of seeking input; (3) identifying and communicating with the critical public groups from which input is needed; (4) using a clearly defined approach to gathering and assessing what will be used in making the biosafety decision; and (5) communicating using clear and simple language. These practices create a foundation for systematic methods to gather, acknowledge, respond to, and even incorporate public input. Applying such best practices will increase transparency and optimize the value of input from the public. PMID:26870726

Experiences in Engaging the Public on Biotechnology Advances and Regulation.

PubMed

Quinlan, M Megan; Smith, Joe; Layton, Raymond; Keese, Paul; Agbagala, Ma Lorelie U; Palacpac, Merle B; Ball, Louise

2016-01-01

Public input is often sought as part of the biosafety decision-making process. Information and communication about the advances in biotechnology are part of the first step to engagement. This step often relies on the developers and introducers of the particular innovation, for example, an industry-funded website has hosted various authorities to respond to questions from the public. Alternative approaches to providing information have evolved, as demonstrated in sub-Saharan Africa where non-governmental organizations and associations play this role in some countries and subregions. Often times, those in the public who choose to participate in engagement opportunities have opinions about the overall biosafety decision process. Case-by-case decisions are made within defined regulatory frameworks, however, and in general, regulatory consultation does not provide the opportunity for input to the overall decision-making process. The various objectives on both sides of engagement can make the experience challenging; there are no clear metrics for success. The situation is challenging because public input occurs within the context of the local legislative framework, regulatory requirements, and the peculiarities of the fairly recent biosafety frameworks, as well as of public opinion and individual values. Public engagement may be conducted voluntarily, or may be driven by legislation. What can be taken into account by the decision makers, and therefore what will be gathered and the timing of consultation, also may be legally defined. Several practical experiences suggest practices for effective engagement within the confines of regulatory mandates: (1) utilizing a range of resources to facilitate public education and opportunities for understanding complex technologies; (2) defining in advance the goal of seeking input; (3) identifying and communicating with the critical public groups from which input is needed; (4) using a clearly defined approach to gathering and assessing what will be used in making the biosafety decision; and (5) communicating using clear and simple language. These practices create a foundation for systematic methods to gather, acknowledge, respond to, and even incorporate public input. Applying such best practices will increase transparency and optimize the value of input from the public.

The once and future application of cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Berger, M L

1999-09-01

Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is used by payers to make coverage decisions, by providers to make formulary decisions, and by large purchasers/employers and policymakers to choose health care performance measures. However, it continues to be poorly utilized in the marketplace because of overriding financial imperatives to control costs and a low apparent willingness to pay for quality. There is no obvious relationship between the cost-effectiveness of life-saving interventions and their application. Health care decision makers consider financial impact, safety, and effectiveness before cost-effectiveness. WHY IS CEA NOT MORE WIDELY APPLIED? Most health care providers have a short-term parochial financial perspective, whereas CEA takes a long-term view that captures all costs, benefits, and hazards, regardless of to whom they accrue. In addition, a history of poor standardization of methods, unrealistic expectations that CEA could answer fundamental ethical and political issues, and society's failure to accept the need for allocating scarce resources more judiciously, have contributed to relatively little use of the method by decision makers. HOW WILL CEA FIND GREATER UTILITY IN THE FUTURE? As decision makers take a longer-term view and understand that CEA can provide a quantitative perspective on important resource allocation decisions, including the distributional consequences of alternative choices, CEA is likely to find greater use. However, it must be embedded within a framework that promotes confidence in the social justice of health care decision making through ongoing dialogue about how the value of health and health care are defined.

Establishing the effectiveness of patient decision aids: key constructs and measurement instruments

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Establishing the effectiveness of patient decision aids (PtDA) requires evidence that PtDAs improve the quality of the decision-making process and the quality of the choice made, or decision quality. The aim of this paper is to review the theoretical and empirical evidence for PtDA effectiveness and discuss emerging practical and research issues in the measurement of effectiveness. Methods This updated overview incorporates: a) an examination of the instruments used to measure five key decision-making process constructs (i.e., recognize decision, feel informed about options and outcomes, feel clear about goals and preferences, discuss goals and preferences with health care provider, and be involved in decisions) and decision quality constructs (i.e., knowledge, realistic expectations, values-choice agreement) within the 86 trials in the Cochrane review; and b) a summary of the 2011 Cochrane Collaboration’s review of PtDAs for these key constructs. Data on the constructs and instruments used were extracted independently by two authors from the 86 trials and any disagreements were resolved by discussion, with adjudication by a third party where required. Results The 86 studies provide considerable evidence that PtDAs improve the decision-making process and decision quality. A majority of the studies (76/86; 88%) measured at least one of the key decision-making process or decision quality constructs. Seventeen different measurement instruments were used to measure decision-making process constructs, but no single instrument covered all five constructs. The Decisional Conflict Scale was most commonly used (n = 47), followed by the Control Preference Scale (n = 9). Many studies reported one or more constructs of decision quality, including knowledge (n = 59), realistic expectation of risks and benefits (n = 21), and values-choice agreement (n = 13). There was considerable variability in how values-choice agreement was defined and determined. No study reported on all key decision-making process and decision quality constructs. Conclusions Evidence of PtDA effectiveness in improving the quality of the decision-making process and decision quality is strong and growing. There is not, however, consensus or standardization of measurement for either the decision-making process or decision quality. Additional work is needed to develop and evaluate measurement instruments and further explore theoretical issues to advance future research on PtDA effectiveness. PMID:24625035

Establishing the effectiveness of patient decision aids: key constructs and measurement instruments.

PubMed

Sepucha, Karen R; Borkhoff, Cornelia M; Lally, Joanne; Levin, Carrie A; Matlock, Daniel D; Ng, Chirk Jenn; Ropka, Mary E; Stacey, Dawn; Joseph-Williams, Natalie; Wills, Celia E; Thomson, Richard

2013-01-01

Establishing the effectiveness of patient decision aids (PtDA) requires evidence that PtDAs improve the quality of the decision-making process and the quality of the choice made, or decision quality. The aim of this paper is to review the theoretical and empirical evidence for PtDA effectiveness and discuss emerging practical and research issues in the measurement of effectiveness. This updated overview incorporates: a) an examination of the instruments used to measure five key decision-making process constructs (i.e., recognize decision, feel informed about options and outcomes, feel clear about goals and preferences, discuss goals and preferences with health care provider, and be involved in decisions) and decision quality constructs (i.e., knowledge, realistic expectations, values-choice agreement) within the 86 trials in the Cochrane review; and b) a summary of the 2011 Cochrane Collaboration's review of PtDAs for these key constructs. Data on the constructs and instruments used were extracted independently by two authors from the 86 trials and any disagreements were resolved by discussion, with adjudication by a third party where required. The 86 studies provide considerable evidence that PtDAs improve the decision-making process and decision quality. A majority of the studies (76/86; 88%) measured at least one of the key decision-making process or decision quality constructs. Seventeen different measurement instruments were used to measure decision-making process constructs, but no single instrument covered all five constructs. The Decisional Conflict Scale was most commonly used (n = 47), followed by the Control Preference Scale (n = 9). Many studies reported one or more constructs of decision quality, including knowledge (n = 59), realistic expectation of risks and benefits (n = 21), and values-choice agreement (n = 13). There was considerable variability in how values-choice agreement was defined and determined. No study reported on all key decision-making process and decision quality constructs. Evidence of PtDA effectiveness in improving the quality of the decision-making process and decision quality is strong and growing. There is not, however, consensus or standardization of measurement for either the decision-making process or decision quality. Additional work is needed to develop and evaluate measurement instruments and further explore theoretical issues to advance future research on PtDA effectiveness.

Siting a municipal solid waste disposal facility, part II: the effects of external criteria on the final decision.

PubMed

Korucu, M Kemal; Karademir, Aykan

2014-02-01

The procedure of a multi-criteria decision analysis supported by the geographic information systems was applied to the site selection process of a planning municipal solid waste management practice based on twelve different scenarios. The scenarios included two different decision tree modes and two different weighting models for three different area requirements. The suitability rankings of the suitable sites obtained from the application of the decision procedure for the scenarios were assessed by a factorial experimental design concerning the effect of some external criteria on the final decision of the site selection process. The external criteria used in the factorial experimental design were defined as "Risk perception and approval of stakeholders" and "Visibility". The effects of the presence of these criteria in the decision trees were evaluated in detail. For a quantitative expression of the differentiations observed in the suitability rankings, the ranking data were subjected to ANOVA test after a normalization process. Then the results of these tests were evaluated by Tukey test to measure the effects of external criteria on the final decision. The results of Tukey tests indicated that the involvement of the external criteria into the decision trees produced statistically meaningful differentiations in the suitability rankings. Since the external criteria could cause considerable external costs during the operation of the disposal facilities, the presence of these criteria in the decision tree in addition to the other criteria related to environmental and legislative requisites could prevent subsequent external costs in the first place.

Regarding Obesity as a Disease: Evolving Policies and Their Implications

PubMed Central

Dhurandhar, Emily J.; Allison, David B.

2016-01-01

Synopsis The 2013 decision of the American Medical Association (AMA) to recognize obesity as a complex, chronic disease that requires medical attention came as the result of developments over three decades. Defining a condition such as obesity to be a disease is a very public process that is largely driven by expectation of costs and benefits. Although the public has been slow to embrace defining obesity as a purely medical condition, evidence is emerging for broader awareness of factors beyond personal choice influencing obesity. The AMA decision appears to be working in concert with other factors to bring more access to care, less blame for people with the condition, and more favorable conditions for research to identify effective strategies for prevention and clinical care to reduce the impact of this disease. PMID:27519127

Stable structures of coalitions in competitive and altruistic military teams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aurangzeb, M.; Mikulski, D.; Hudas, G.; Lewis, F. L.; Gu, Edward

2013-05-01

In heterogeneous battlefield teams, the balance between team and individual objectives forms the basis for the internal topological structure of teams. The stability of team structure is studied by presenting a graphical coalitional game (GCG) with Positional Advantage (PA). PA is Shapley value strengthened by the Axioms of value. The notion of team and individual objectives is studied by defining altruistic and competitive contribution made by an individual; altruistic and competitive contributions made by an agent are components of its total or marginal contribution. Moreover, the paper examines dynamic team effects by defining three online sequential decision games based on marginal, competitive and altruistic contributions of the individuals towards team. The stable graphs under these sequential decision games are studied and found to be structurally connected, complete, or tree respectively.

Discrete Mathematics and Curriculum Reform.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kenney, Margaret J.

1996-01-01

Defines discrete mathematics as the mathematics necessary to effect reasoned decision making in finite situations and explains how its use supports the current view of mathematics education. Discrete mathematics can be used by curriculum developers to improve the curriculum for students of all ages and abilities. (SLD)

Navigating the Decision Space: Shared Medical Decision Making as Distributed Cognition.

PubMed

Lippa, Katherine D; Feufel, Markus A; Robinson, F Eric; Shalin, Valerie L

2017-06-01

Despite increasing prominence, little is known about the cognitive processes underlying shared decision making. To investigate these processes, we conceptualize shared decision making as a form of distributed cognition. We introduce a Decision Space Model to identify physical and social influences on decision making. Using field observations and interviews, we demonstrate that patients and physicians in both acute and chronic care consider these influences when identifying the need for a decision, searching for decision parameters, making actionable decisions Based on the distribution of access to information and actions, we then identify four related patterns: physician dominated; physician-defined, patient-made; patient-defined, physician-made; and patient-dominated decisions. Results suggests that (a) decision making is necessarily distributed between physicians and patients, (b) differential access to information and action over time requires participants to transform a distributed task into a shared decision, and (c) adverse outcomes may result from failures to integrate physician and patient reasoning. Our analysis unifies disparate findings in the medical decision-making literature and has implications for improving care and medical training.

Principles of educational outreach ('academic detailing') to improve clinical decision making.

PubMed

Soumerai, S B; Avorn, J

1990-01-26

With the efficacy and costs of medications rising rapidly, it is increasingly important to ensure that drugs be prescribed as rationally as possible. Yet, physicians' choices of drugs frequently fall short of the ideal of precise and cost-effective decision making. Evidence indicates that such decisions can be improved in a variety of ways. A number of theories and principles of communication and behavior changes can be found that underlie the success of pharmaceutical manufacturers in influencing prescribing practices. Based on this behavioral science and several field trials, it is possible to define the theory and practice of methods to improve physicians' clinical decision making to enhance the quality and cost-effectiveness of care. Some of the most important techniques of such "academic detailing" include (1) conducting interviews to investigate baseline knowledge and motivations for current prescribing patterns, (2) focusing programs on specific categories of physicians as well as on their opinion leaders, (3) defining clear educational and behavioral objectives, (4) establishing credibility through a respected organizational identity, referencing authoritative and unbiased sources of information, and presenting both sides of controversial issues, (5) stimulating active physician participation in educational interactions, (6) using concise graphic educational materials, (7) highlighting and repeating the essential messages, and (8) providing positive reinforcement of improved practices in follow-up visits. Used by the nonprofit sector, the above techniques have been shown to reduce inappropriate prescribing as well as unnecessary health care expenditures.

Serving California's Science and Governance Needs through Crisis-driven Collaborations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernacchi, L.

2015-12-01

Due to its magnitude, the ongoing drought in California (USA) serves as an experimental space for innovative resource management and will define responses to predicted widespread drought. Due to the magnitude of its effect on humans and natural ecosystems and the water resources on which they depend, governmental programs are granting support to scientifically-valid, locally-produced solutions to water scarcity. Concurrently, University of California Water (UC Water) Security and Sustainability Research Initiative is focused on strategic research to build the knowledge base for better water resources management. This paper examines how a team of transdisciplinary scientists are engaged in water governance and information, providing examples of actionable research successfully implemented by decision makers. From a sociology of science perspective, UC Water scientists were interviewed about their engagement practices with California water decision makers. Their "co-production of knowledge" relationships produce effective responses to climatic, landcover and population changes by expanding from singularly information-based, unidirectional communication to governance-relevant, co-constructed knowledge and wisdom. This is accomplished by serving on decision making organizational boards and developing information in a productive format. The perceived crisis of California's drought is an important impetus in cross-sector collaborations, and in combination with governance and institution parameters, defines the inquiry and decision space. We conclude by describing a process of clear problem-solution definition made possible through transparent communication, salient and credible information, and relevant tools and techniques for interpreting scientific findings.

Ecological function as a target for ecosystem-based management: Defining when change matters in decision making

EPA Science Inventory

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) accounts for both direct and indirect drivers of ecological change for decision making. Just as with direct management of a resource, EBM requires a definition of management thresholds that define when change in function is sufficient to merit ma...

Possibility-induced simplified neutrosophic aggregation operators and their application to multi-criteria group decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Şahin, Rıdvan; Liu, Peide

2017-07-01

Simplified neutrosophic set (SNS) is an appropriate tool used to express the incompleteness, indeterminacy and uncertainty of the evaluation objects in decision-making process. In this study, we define the concept of possibility SNS including two types of information such as the neutrosophic performance provided from the evaluation objects and its possibility degree using a value ranging from zero to one. Then by extending the existing neutrosophic information, aggregation models for SNSs that cannot be used effectively to fusion the two different information described above, we propose two novel neutrosophic aggregation operators considering possibility, which are named as a possibility-induced simplified neutrosophic weighted arithmetic averaging operator and possibility-induced simplified neutrosophic weighted geometric averaging operator, and discuss their properties. Moreover, we develop a useful method based on the proposed aggregation operators for solving a multi-criteria group decision-making problem with the possibility simplified neutrosophic information, in which the weights of decision-makers and decision criteria are calculated based on entropy measure. Finally, a practical example is utilised to show the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Decision Making in Action

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking in response to a problem. This presentation will examine the relations between leadership, communication, decision making and overall crew performance. Implications of these findings for spaceflight and training for offshore installations will be discussed.

Decision Making in Action: Applying Research to Practice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking in response to a problem. This presentation will examine the relations between leadership, communication, decision making and overall crew performance. Implications of these findings for spaceflight and training for offshore installations will be discussed.

Structured decision making for managing pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sells, Sarah N.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Gude, Justin A.; Anderson, Neil J.

2016-01-01

Good decision-making is essential to conserving wildlife populations. Although there may be multiple ways to address a problem, perfect solutions rarely exist. Managers are therefore tasked with identifying decisions that will best achieve desired outcomes. Structured decision making (SDM) is a method of decision analysis used to identify the most effective, efficient, and realistic decisions while accounting for values and priorities of the decision maker. The stepwise process includes identifying the management problem, defining objectives for solving the problem, developing alternative approaches to achieve the objectives, and formally evaluating which alternative is most likely to accomplish the objectives. The SDM process can be more effective than informal decision-making because it provides a transparent way to quantitatively evaluate decisions for addressing multiple management objectives while incorporating science, uncertainty, and risk tolerance. To illustrate the application of this process to a management need, we present an SDM-based decision tool developed to identify optimal decisions for proactively managing risk of pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) in Montana. Pneumonia epizootics are a major challenge for managers due to long-term impacts to herds, epistemic uncertainty in timing and location of future epizootics, and consequent difficulty knowing how or when to manage risk. The decision tool facilitates analysis of alternative decisions for how to manage herds based on predictions from a risk model, herd-specific objectives, and predicted costs and benefits of each alternative. Decision analyses for 2 example herds revealed that meeting management objectives necessitates specific approaches unique to each herd. The analyses showed how and under what circumstances the alternatives are optimal compared to other approaches and current management. Managers can be confident that these decisions are effective, efficient, and realistic because they explicitly account for important considerations managers implicitly weigh when making decisions, including competing management objectives, uncertainty in potential outcomes, and risk tolerance.

A new approach to formulating and appraising drug policy: A multi-criterion decision analysis applied to alcohol and cannabis regulation.

PubMed

Rogeberg, Ole; Bergsvik, Daniel; Phillips, Lawrence D; van Amsterdam, Jan; Eastwood, Niamh; Henderson, Graeme; Lynskey, Micheal; Measham, Fiona; Ponton, Rhys; Rolles, Steve; Schlag, Anne Katrin; Taylor, Polly; Nutt, David

2018-02-16

Drug policy, whether for legal or illegal substances, is a controversial field that encompasses many complex issues. Policies can have effects on a myriad of outcomes and stakeholders differ in the outcomes they consider and value, while relevant knowledge on policy effects is dispersed across multiple research disciplines making integrated judgements difficult. Experts on drug harms, addiction, criminology and drug policy were invited to a decision conference to develop a multi-criterion decision analysis (MCDA) model for appraising alternative regulatory regimes. Participants collectively defined regulatory regimes and identified outcome criteria reflecting ethical and normative concerns. For cannabis and alcohol separately, participants evaluated each regulatory regime on each criterion and weighted the criteria to provide summary scores for comparing different regimes. Four generic regulatory regimes were defined: absolute prohibition, decriminalisation, state control and free market. Participants also identified 27 relevant criteria which were organised into seven thematically related clusters. State control was the preferred regime for both alcohol and cannabis. The ranking of the regimes was robust to variations in the criterion-specific weights. The MCDA process allowed the participants to deconstruct complex drug policy issues into a set of simpler judgements that led to consensus about the results. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A calibration hierarchy for risk models was defined: from utopia to empirical data.

PubMed

Van Calster, Ben; Nieboer, Daan; Vergouwe, Yvonne; De Cock, Bavo; Pencina, Michael J; Steyerberg, Ewout W

2016-06-01

Calibrated risk models are vital for valid decision support. We define four levels of calibration and describe implications for model development and external validation of predictions. We present results based on simulated data sets. A common definition of calibration is "having an event rate of R% among patients with a predicted risk of R%," which we refer to as "moderate calibration." Weaker forms of calibration only require the average predicted risk (mean calibration) or the average prediction effects (weak calibration) to be correct. "Strong calibration" requires that the event rate equals the predicted risk for every covariate pattern. This implies that the model is fully correct for the validation setting. We argue that this is unrealistic: the model type may be incorrect, the linear predictor is only asymptotically unbiased, and all nonlinear and interaction effects should be correctly modeled. In addition, we prove that moderate calibration guarantees nonharmful decision making. Finally, results indicate that a flexible assessment of calibration in small validation data sets is problematic. Strong calibration is desirable for individualized decision support but unrealistic and counter productive by stimulating the development of overly complex models. Model development and external validation should focus on moderate calibration. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of Context on Judgments Concerning the Reality Status of Novel Entities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woolley, Jacqueline D.; Van Reet, Jennifer

2006-01-01

Three studies examined the effects of context on decisions about the reality status of novel entities. In Experiment 1 (144, 3- to 5-year-olds), participants less often claimed that novel entities were real when they were introduced in a fantastical than in a scientific context. Experiment 2 (61, 4- to 5-year-olds) revealed that defining novel…

Hesitant Fuzzy Thermodynamic Method for Emergency Decision Making Based on Prospect Theory.

PubMed

Ren, Peijia; Xu, Zeshui; Hao, Zhinan

2017-09-01

Due to the timeliness of emergency response and much unknown information in emergency situations, this paper proposes a method to deal with the emergency decision making, which can comprehensively reflect the emergency decision making process. By utilizing the hesitant fuzzy elements to represent the fuzziness of the objects and the hesitant thought of the experts, this paper introduces the negative exponential function into the prospect theory so as to portray the psychological behaviors of the experts, which transforms the hesitant fuzzy decision matrix into the hesitant fuzzy prospect decision matrix (HFPDM) according to the expectation-levels. Then, this paper applies the energy and the entropy in thermodynamics to take the quantity and the quality of the decision values into account, and defines the thermodynamic decision making parameters based on the HFPDM. Accordingly, a whole procedure for emergency decision making is conducted. What is more, some experiments are designed to demonstrate and improve the validation of the emergency decision making procedure. Last but not the least, this paper makes a case study about the emergency decision making in the firing and exploding at Port Group in Tianjin Binhai New Area, which manifests the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method.

Clinical decision rules, spinal pain classification and prediction of treatment outcome: A discussion of recent reports in the rehabilitation literature

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Clinical decision rules are an increasingly common presence in the biomedical literature and represent one strategy of enhancing clinical-decision making with the goal of improving the efficiency and effectiveness of healthcare delivery. In the context of rehabilitation research, clinical decision rules have been predominantly aimed at classifying patients by predicting their treatment response to specific therapies. Traditionally, recommendations for developing clinical decision rules propose a multistep process (derivation, validation, impact analysis) using defined methodology. Research efforts aimed at developing a “diagnosis-based clinical decision rule” have departed from this convention. Recent publications in this line of research have used the modified terminology “diagnosis-based clinical decision guide.” Modifications to terminology and methodology surrounding clinical decision rules can make it more difficult for clinicians to recognize the level of evidence associated with a decision rule and understand how this evidence should be implemented to inform patient care. We provide a brief overview of clinical decision rule development in the context of the rehabilitation literature and two specific papers recently published in Chiropractic and Manual Therapies. PMID:22726639

Who Defines "Democratic Leadership?": Three High School Principals Respond to Site-Based Reforms.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brouillette, Liane

1997-01-01

Focuses on behaviors and activities of three high school principals as they respond to district's decision to implement a shared decision-making model designed to give teachers and parents a larger voice. Describes these administrators' varying responses, along with varied ways democratic leadership was multilaterally defined in each school by…

Defining ecohydrological function to support low impact development in coastal South Carolina

Treesearch

Daniel Hitchcock; A.D. Jayakaran; T. H. Epps; J.A. Palazzolo; T.M. Williams; D.M. Amatya

2016-01-01

In the face of dual pressures in coastal South Carolina - residential and commercial development, along with potential climate change impacts - stakeholders need clear, accurate, relevant, and easily-accessible information for effective decision-making for watershed management and natural resource protection.

The Economics of Time in Learning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Christoffersson, Nils-Olaf

The use of a mathematical model supported by empirical findings had developed a method of cost effectiveness that can be used in evaluations between educational objectives and goals. Educational time allocation can be studied and developed into a micro-level economic theory of decision. Learning has been defined as increments which can be…

Exploring Principal Autonomy in Charter, Private, and Public Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adamson, Linda

2012-01-01

This qualitative multiple case study concerned how school principals in charter, private, and public school settings experience autonomy, based on the schools' governance structures and accountability systems. Principal autonomy was defined as the authority that school principals exercise to lead staff effectively, to make decisions based on…

A Guide to Curriculum Planning in Reading. Bulletin No. 6305.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wisconsin State Dept. of Public Instruction, Madison.

Defining reading as a dynamic, interactive process involving the reader in constructing meaning, this guide for the elementary and secondary curriculum was designed to facilitate effective and creative decision making by teachers for (1) integrating reading and writing across the curriculum, (2) developing readers who can independently apply…

Implementing an effective organization and governance structure for a radiology practice.

PubMed

Muroff, Lawrence R

2004-01-01

Radiology practices that are well organized and effectively governed have a competitive advantage. Decisions are made rapidly, actions are taken decisively and in accordance with established policy, and each group member has a responsibility for practice building. Such groups are perceived by their peers, hospital administration, and community business leaders to be both formidable and effective. This paper details the mechanisms that facilitate planning for and implementing an efficient practice organization and governance structure. The tasks of group leaders are defined, as are the committees necessary for appropriate action. The integral roles of a mission statement and a business plan are discussed. Practices adopting the suggested organizational structure will be best positioned to survive in both good times and bad.

A safety-based decision making architecture for autonomous systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Musto, Joseph C.; Lauderbaugh, L. K.

1991-01-01

Engineering systems designed specifically for space applications often exhibit a high level of autonomy in the control and decision-making architecture. As the level of autonomy increases, more emphasis must be placed on assimilating the safety functions normally executed at the hardware level or by human supervisors into the control architecture of the system. The development of a decision-making structure which utilizes information on system safety is detailed. A quantitative measure of system safety, called the safety self-information, is defined. This measure is analogous to the reliability self-information defined by McInroy and Saridis, but includes weighting of task constraints to provide a measure of both reliability and cost. An example is presented in which the safety self-information is used as a decision criterion in a mobile robot controller. The safety self-information is shown to be consistent with the entropy-based Theory of Intelligent Machines defined by Saridis.

Perceptual and categorical decision making: goal-relevant representation of two domains at different levels of abstraction.

PubMed

Shankar, Swetha; Kayser, Andrew S

2017-06-01

To date it has been unclear whether perceptual decision making and rule-based categorization reflect activation of similar cognitive processes and brain regions. On one hand, both map potentially ambiguous stimuli to a smaller set of motor responses. On the other hand, decisions about perceptual salience typically concern concrete sensory representations derived from a noisy stimulus, while categorization is typically conceptualized as an abstract decision about membership in a potentially arbitrary set. Previous work has primarily examined these types of decisions in isolation. Here we independently varied salience in both the perceptual and categorical domains in a random dot-motion framework by manipulating dot-motion coherence and motion direction relative to a category boundary, respectively. Behavioral and modeling results suggest that categorical (more abstract) information, which is more relevant to subjects' decisions, is weighted more strongly than perceptual (more concrete) information, although they also have significant interactive effects on choice. Within the brain, BOLD activity within frontal regions strongly differentiated categorical salience and weakly differentiated perceptual salience; however, the interaction between these two factors activated similar frontoparietal brain networks. Notably, explicitly evaluating feature interactions revealed a frontal-parietal dissociation: parietal activity varied strongly with both features, but frontal activity varied with the combined strength of the information that defined the motor response. Together, these data demonstrate that frontal regions are driven by decision-relevant features and argue that perceptual decisions and rule-based categorization reflect similar cognitive processes and activate similar brain networks to the extent that they define decision-relevant stimulus-response mappings. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Here we study the behavioral and neural dynamics of perceptual categorization when decision information varies in multiple domains at different levels of abstraction. Behavioral and modeling results suggest that categorical (more abstract) information is weighted more strongly than perceptual (more concrete) information but that perceptual and categorical domains interact to influence decisions. Frontoparietal brain activity during categorization flexibly represents decision-relevant features and highlights significant dissociations in frontal and parietal activity during decision making. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Perceptual and categorical decision making: goal-relevant representation of two domains at different levels of abstraction

PubMed Central

Kayser, Andrew S.

2017-01-01

To date it has been unclear whether perceptual decision making and rule-based categorization reflect activation of similar cognitive processes and brain regions. On one hand, both map potentially ambiguous stimuli to a smaller set of motor responses. On the other hand, decisions about perceptual salience typically concern concrete sensory representations derived from a noisy stimulus, while categorization is typically conceptualized as an abstract decision about membership in a potentially arbitrary set. Previous work has primarily examined these types of decisions in isolation. Here we independently varied salience in both the perceptual and categorical domains in a random dot-motion framework by manipulating dot-motion coherence and motion direction relative to a category boundary, respectively. Behavioral and modeling results suggest that categorical (more abstract) information, which is more relevant to subjects’ decisions, is weighted more strongly than perceptual (more concrete) information, although they also have significant interactive effects on choice. Within the brain, BOLD activity within frontal regions strongly differentiated categorical salience and weakly differentiated perceptual salience; however, the interaction between these two factors activated similar frontoparietal brain networks. Notably, explicitly evaluating feature interactions revealed a frontal-parietal dissociation: parietal activity varied strongly with both features, but frontal activity varied with the combined strength of the information that defined the motor response. Together, these data demonstrate that frontal regions are driven by decision-relevant features and argue that perceptual decisions and rule-based categorization reflect similar cognitive processes and activate similar brain networks to the extent that they define decision-relevant stimulus-response mappings. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Here we study the behavioral and neural dynamics of perceptual categorization when decision information varies in multiple domains at different levels of abstraction. Behavioral and modeling results suggest that categorical (more abstract) information is weighted more strongly than perceptual (more concrete) information but that perceptual and categorical domains interact to influence decisions. Frontoparietal brain activity during categorization flexibly represents decision-relevant features and highlights significant dissociations in frontal and parietal activity during decision making. PMID:28250149

A rational look at the emotional stroop phenomenon: a generic slowdown, not a stroop effect.

PubMed

Algom, Daniel; Chajut, Eran; Lev, Shlomo

2004-09-01

The role of Stroop processes in the emotional Stroop effect was subjected to a conceptual scrutiny augmented by a series of experiments entailing reading or lexical decision as well as color naming. The analysis showed that the Stroop effect is not defined in the emotional Stroop task. The experiments showed that reading, lexical decision, and color naming all are slower with emotional words and that this delay is immune to task-irrelevant variation and to changes in the relative salience of the words and the colors. The delay was absent when emotional and neutral words appeared in a single block. A threat-driven generic slowdown is implicated, not a selective attention mechanism associated with the classic Stroop effect. ((c) 2004 APA, all rights reserved)

Effects of outcome on the covariance between risk level and brain activity in adolescents with internet gaming disorder.

PubMed

Qi, Xin; Yang, Yongxin; Dai, Shouping; Gao, Peihong; Du, Xin; Zhang, Yang; Du, Guijin; Li, Xiaodong; Zhang, Quan

2016-01-01

Individuals with internet gaming disorder (IGD) often have impaired risky decision-making abilities, and IGD-related functional changes have been observed during neuroimaging studies of decision-making tasks. However, it is still unclear how feedback (outcomes of decision-making) affects the subsequent risky decision-making in individuals with IGD. In this study, twenty-four adolescents with IGD and 24 healthy controls (HCs) were recruited and underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging while performing the balloon analog risk task (BART) to evaluate the effects of prior outcomes on brain activity during subsequent risky decision-making in adolescents with IGD. The covariance between risk level and activation of the bilateral ventral medial prefrontal cortex, left inferior frontal cortex, right ventral striatum (VS), left hippocampus/parahippocampus, right inferior occipital gyrus/fusiform gyrus and right inferior temporal gyrus demonstrated interaction effects of group by outcome ( P  < 0.05, AlphaSim correction). The regions with interactive effects were defined as ROI, and ROI-based intergroup comparisons showed that the covariance between risk level and brain activation was significantly greater in adolescents with IGD compared with HCs after a negative outcome occurred ( P  < 0.05). Our results indicated that negative outcomes affected the covariance between risk level and activation of the brain regions related to value estimation (prefrontal cortex), anticipation of rewards (VS), and emotional-related learning (hippocampus/parahippocampus), which may be one of the underlying neural mechanisms of disadvantageous risky decision-making in adolescents with IGD.

A non-linear optimization programming model for air quality planning including co-benefits for GHG emissions.

PubMed

Turrini, Enrico; Carnevale, Claudio; Finzi, Giovanna; Volta, Marialuisa

2018-04-15

This paper introduces the MAQ (Multi-dimensional Air Quality) model aimed at defining cost-effective air quality plans at different scales (urban to national) and assessing the co-benefits for GHG emissions. The model implements and solves a non-linear multi-objective, multi-pollutant decision problem where the decision variables are the application levels of emission abatement measures allowing the reduction of energy consumption, end-of pipe technologies and fuel switch options. The objectives of the decision problem are the minimization of tropospheric secondary pollution exposure and of internal costs. The model assesses CO 2 equivalent emissions in order to support decision makers in the selection of win-win policies. The methodology is tested on Lombardy region, a heavily polluted area in northern Italy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Training conservation practitioners to be better decision makers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Fred A.; Eaton, Mitchell J.; Williams, James H.; Jensen, Gitte H.; Madsen, Jesper

2015-01-01

Traditional conservation curricula and training typically emphasizes only one part of systematic decision making (i.e., the science), at the expense of preparing conservation practitioners with critical skills in values-setting, working with decision makers and stakeholders, and effective problem framing. In this article we describe how the application of decision science is relevant to conservation problems and suggest how current and future conservation practitioners can be trained to be better decision makers. Though decision-analytic approaches vary considerably, they all involve: (1) properly formulating the decision problem; (2) specifying feasible alternative actions; and (3) selecting criteria for evaluating potential outcomes. Two approaches are available for providing training in decision science, with each serving different needs. Formal education is useful for providing simple, well-defined problems that allow demonstrations of the structure, axioms and general characteristics of a decision-analytic approach. In contrast, practical training can offer complex, realistic decision problems requiring more careful structuring and analysis than those used for formal training purposes. Ultimately, the kinds and degree of training necessary depend on the role conservation practitioners play in a decision-making process. Those attempting to facilitate decision-making processes will need advanced training in both technical aspects of decision science and in facilitation techniques, as well as opportunities to apprentice under decision analysts/consultants. Our primary goal should be an attempt to ingrain a discipline for applying clarity of thought to all decisions.

The use of misclassification costs to learn rule-based decision support models for cost-effective hospital admission strategies.

PubMed

Ambrosino, R; Buchanan, B G; Cooper, G F; Fine, M J

1995-01-01

Cost-effective health care is at the forefront of today's important health-related issues. A research team at the University of Pittsburgh has been interested in lowering the cost of medical care by attempting to define a subset of patients with community-acquire pneumonia for whom outpatient therapy is appropriate and safe. Sensitivity and specificity requirements for this domain make it difficult to use rule-based learning algorithms with standard measures of performance based on accuracy. This paper describes the use of misclassification costs to assist a rule-based machine-learning program in deriving a decision-support aid for choosing outpatient therapy for patients with community-acquired pneumonia.

The vexing problem of defining the meaning, role and measurement of values in treatment decision-making.

PubMed

Charles, Cathy; Gafni, Amiram

2014-03-01

Two international movements, evidence-based medicine (EBM) and shared decision-making (SDM) have grappled for some time with issues related to defining the meaning, role and measurement of values/preferences in their respective models of treatment decision-making. In this article, we identify and describe unresolved problems in the way that each movement addresses these issues. The starting point for this discussion is that at least two essential ingredients are needed for treatment decision-making: research information about treatment options and their potential benefits and risks; and the values/preferences of participants in the decision-making process. Both the EBM and SDM movements have encountered difficulties in defining the meaning, role and measurement of values/preferences in treatment decision-making. In the EBM model of practice, there is no clear and consistent definition of patient values/preferences and no guidance is provided on how to integrate these into an EBM model of practice. Methods advocated to measure patient values are also problematic. Within the SDM movement, patient values/preferences tend to be defined and measured in a restrictive and reductionist way as patient preferences for treatment options or attributes of options, while broader underlying value structures are ignored. In both models of practice, the meaning and expected role of physician values in decision-making are unclear. Values clarification exercises embedded in patient decision aids are suggested by SDM advocates to identify and communicate patient values/preferences for different treatment outcomes. Such exercises have the potential to impose a particular decision-making theory and/or process onto patients, which can change the way they think about and process information, potentially impeding them from making decisions that are consistent with their true values. The tasks of clarifying the meaning, role and measurement of values/preferences in treatment decision-making models such as EBM and SDM, and determining whose values ought to count are complex and difficult tasks that will not be resolved quickly. Additional conceptual thinking and research are needed to explore and clarify these issues. To date, the values component of these models remains elusive and underdeveloped.

Evaluation of ilmenite serpentine concrete and ordinary concrete as nuclear reactor shielding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abulfaraj, Waleed H.; Kamal, Salah M.

1994-07-01

The present study involves adapting a formal decision methodology to the selection of alternative nuclear reactor concretes shielding. Multiattribute utility theory is selected to accommodate decision makers' preferences. Multiattribute utility theory (MAU) is here employed to evaluate two appropriate nuclear reactor shielding concretes in terms of effectiveness to determine the optimal choice in order to meet the radiation protection regulations. These concretes are Ordinary concrete (O.C.) and Ilmenite Serpentile concrete (I.S.C.). These are normal weight concrete and heavy heat resistive concrete, respectively. The effectiveness objective of the nuclear reactor shielding is defined and structured into definite attributes and subattributes to evaluate the best alternative. Factors affecting the decision are dose received by reactor's workers, the material properties as well as cost of concrete shield. A computer program is employed to assist in performing utility analysis. Based upon data, the result shows the superiority of Ordinary concrete over Ilmenite Serpentine concrete.

Effective crisis decision-making.

PubMed

Kaschner, Holger

2017-01-01

When an organisation's reputation is at stake, crisis decision-making (CDM) is challenging and prone to failure. Most CDM schemes are strong at certain aspects of the overall CDM process, but almost none are strong at all of them. This paper defines criteria for good CDM schemes, analyses common approaches and introduces an alternative, stakeholder-driven scheme. Focusing on the most important stakeholders and directing any actions to preserve the relationships with them is crucial. When doing so, the interdependencies between the stakeholders must be identified and considered. Without knowledge of the sometimes less than obvious links, wellmeaning actions can cause adverse effects, so a cross-check for the impacts of potential options is recommended before making the final decision. The paper also gives recommendations on how to implement these steps at any organisation in order to enhance the quality of CDM and thus protect the organisation's reputation.

Improving Medical Decision Making and Health Promotion through Culture-Sensitive Health Communication: An Agenda for Science and Practice.

PubMed

Betsch, Cornelia; Böhm, Robert; Airhihenbuwa, Collins O; Butler, Robb; Chapman, Gretchen B; Haase, Niels; Herrmann, Benedikt; Igarashi, Tasuku; Kitayama, Shinobu; Korn, Lars; Nurm, Ülla-Karin; Rohrmann, Bernd; Rothman, Alexander J; Shavitt, Sharon; Updegraff, John A; Uskul, Ayse K

2016-10-01

This review introduces the concept of culture-sensitive health communication. The basic premise is that congruency between the recipient's cultural characteristics and the respective message will increase the communication's effectiveness. Culture-sensitive health communication is therefore defined as the deliberate and evidence-informed adaptation of health communication to the recipients' cultural background in order to increase knowledge and improve preparation for medical decision making and to enhance the persuasiveness of messages in health promotion. To achieve effective health communication in varying cultural contexts, an empirically and theoretically based understanding of culture will be indispensable. We therefore define culture, discuss which evolutionary and structural factors contribute to the development of cultural diversity, and examine how differences are conceptualized as scientific constructs in current models of cultural differences. In addition, we will explicate the implications of cultural differences for psychological theorizing, because common constructs of health behavior theories and decision making, such as attitudes or risk perception, are subject to cultural variation. In terms of communication, we will review both communication strategies and channels that are used to disseminate health messages, and we will discuss the implications of cultural differences for their effectiveness. Finally, we propose an agenda both for science and for practice to advance and apply the evidence base for culture-sensitive health communication. This calls for more interdisciplinary research between science and practice but also between scientific disciplines and between basic and applied research. © The Author(s) 2015.

Translational Cognition for Decision Support in Critical Care Environments: A Review

PubMed Central

Patel, Vimla L.; Zhang, Jiajie; Yoskowitz, Nicole A.; Green, Robert; Sayan, Osman R.

2008-01-01

The dynamic and distributed work environment in critical care requires a high level of collaboration among clinical team members and a sophisticated task coordination system to deliver safe, timely and effective care. A complex cognitive system underlies the decision-making process in such cooperative workplaces. This methodological review paper addresses the issues of translating cognitive research to clinical practice with a specific focus on decision-making in critical care, and the role of information and communication technology to aid in such decisions. Examples are drawn from studies of critical care in our own research laboratories. Critical care, in this paper, includes both intensive (inpatient) and emergency (outpatient) care. We define translational cognition as the research on basic and applied cognitive issues that contribute to our understanding of how information is stored, retrieved and used for problem-solving and decision-making. The methods and findings are discussed in the context of constraints on decision-making in real world complex environments and implications for supporting the design and evaluation of decision support tools for critical care health providers. PMID:18343731

Translational cognition for decision support in critical care environments: a review.

PubMed

Patel, Vimla L; Zhang, Jiajie; Yoskowitz, Nicole A; Green, Robert; Sayan, Osman R

2008-06-01

The dynamic and distributed work environment in critical care requires a high level of collaboration among clinical team members and a sophisticated task coordination system to deliver safe, timely and effective care. A complex cognitive system underlies the decision-making process in such cooperative workplaces. This methodological review paper addresses the issues of translating cognitive research to clinical practice with a specific focus on decision-making in critical care, and the role of information and communication technology to aid in such decisions. Examples are drawn from studies of critical care in our own research laboratories. Critical care, in this paper, includes both intensive (inpatient) and emergency (outpatient) care. We define translational cognition as the research on basic and applied cognitive issues that contribute to our understanding of how information is stored, retrieved and used for problem-solving and decision-making. The methods and findings are discussed in the context of constraints on decision-making in real-world complex environments and implications for supporting the design and evaluation of decision support tools for critical care health providers.

Neighborhood graph and learning discriminative distance functions for clinical decision support.

PubMed

Tsymbal, Alexey; Zhou, Shaohua Kevin; Huber, Martin

2009-01-01

There are two essential reasons for the slow progress in the acceptance of clinical case retrieval and similarity search-based decision support systems; the especial complexity of clinical data making it difficult to define a meaningful and effective distance function on them and the lack of transparency and explanation ability in many existing clinical case retrieval decision support systems. In this paper, we try to address these two problems by introducing a novel technique for visualizing inter-patient similarity based on a node-link representation with neighborhood graphs and by considering two techniques for learning discriminative distance function that help to combine the power of strong "black box" learners with the transparency of case retrieval and nearest neighbor classification.

School Counselors and Ethical Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

West, Dana R.

2016-01-01

Students and their parents/guardians rely on school counselors to provide counseling services based on ethically sound principles. However, there is a lack of empirical evidence about what influences a school counselor's ethical decision making. Ethical decision making for this study was defined as the degree to which decisions pertaining to…

Recent advances in applying decision science to managing national forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marcot, Bruce G.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Runge, Michael C.; Thompson, Frank R.; McNulty, Steven; Cleaves, David; Tomosy, Monica; Fisher, Larry A.; Andrew, Bliss

2012-01-01

Management of federal public forests to meet sustainability goals and multiple use regulations is an immense challenge. To succeed, we suggest use of formal decision science procedures and tools in the context of structured decision making (SDM). SDM entails four stages: problem structuring (framing the problem and defining objectives and evaluation criteria), problem analysis (defining alternatives, evaluating likely consequences, identifying key uncertainties, and analyzing tradeoffs), decision point (identifying the preferred alternative), and implementation and monitoring the preferred alternative with adaptive management feedbacks. We list a wide array of models, techniques, and tools available for each stage, and provide three case studies of their selected use in National Forest land management and project plans. Successful use of SDM involves participation by decision-makers, analysts, scientists, and stakeholders. We suggest specific areas for training and instituting SDM to foster transparency, rigor, clarity, and inclusiveness in formal decision processes regarding management of national forests.

Making research more relevant: give it a try!

Treesearch

David W. Lime

2002-01-01

Barriers to research use are common to most scientific disciplines and areas of investigation. This paper addresses three interrelated issues to enhancing the effectiveness of science to aid decision making specifically to outdoor recreation, leisure and tourism: (1) clearly defining and framing research problems, (2) enhancing the flow of research findings to those...

Using exposure prediction tools to link exposure and dosimetry for risk based decisions: a case study with phthalates

EPA Science Inventory

The Population Life-course Exposure to Health Effects Modeling (PLETHEM) platform being developed provides a tool that links results from emerging toxicity testing tools to exposure estimates for humans as defined by the USEPA. A reverse dosimetry case study using phthalates was ...

36 CFR 294.21 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

...) Has a geographic feature that aids in creating an effective fire break, such as a road or a ridge top..., Appendix Q. Forest road: As defined at 36 CFR 212.1, the term means a road wholly or partly within or... make decisions about protection and management of Idaho Roadless Areas pursuant to this subpart. Road...

Graduate School Choice: An Examination of Individual and Institutional Effects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

English, David Judson

2012-01-01

While significant scholarly attention focuses on the development and testing of theoretically grounded models of the college choice process at the undergraduate level, far less research explores the area of graduate school enrollments. Graduate school choice, which is defined for the purposes of this paper as the decision to pursue any…

The Impact of Study Abroad Experiences on Vocational Identity among College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kronholz, Julia F.; Osborn, Debra S.

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine preliminary findings regarding the effect of a study abroad experience on vocational identity and career decision-making as defined by Cognitive Information Processing (CIP) theory (Sampson et al., 2004). The results revealed that a study abroad experience significantly impacts college students'…

Function-Based Approach to Designing an Instructional Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Park, Kristy; Pinkelman, Sarah

2017-01-01

Teachers are faced with the challenge of selecting interventions that are most likely to be effective and best matched to the function of problem behavior. This article will define aspects of the instructional environment and describe a decision-making logic to select environmental variables. A summary of commonly used function-based interventions…

Qualities and Qualifications of EFL Professionals: What Do Intensive English Program Administrators Think?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Akcan, Sumru; Aydin, Belgin; Karaman, A. Cendel; Seferoglu, Gölge; Korkmazgil, Sibel; Özbilgin, Alev; Selvi, Ali Fuad

2017-01-01

Recent educational research has underscored the criticality and centrality of teacher quality as a decisive and prominent influence on students' academic growth and success. Consequently, it becomes imperative to define, understand, and study the qualities and qualifications of effective teachers so as to inform preservice and in-service teacher…

Towards meaningful medication-related clinical decision support: recommendations for an initial implementation.

PubMed

Phansalkar, S; Wright, A; Kuperman, G J; Vaida, A J; Bobb, A M; Jenders, R A; Payne, T H; Halamka, J; Bloomrosen, M; Bates, D W

2011-01-01

Clinical decision support (CDS) can improve safety, quality, and cost-effectiveness of patient care, especially when implemented in computerized provider order entry (CPOE) applications. Medication-related decision support logic forms a large component of the CDS logic in any CPOE system. However, organizations wishing to implement CDS must either purchase the computable clinical content or develop it themselves. Content provided by vendors does not always meet local expectations. Most organizations lack the resources to customize the clinical content and the expertise to implement it effectively. In this paper, we describe the recommendations of a national expert panel on two basic medication-related CDS areas, specifically, drug-drug interaction (DDI) checking and duplicate therapy checking. The goals of this study were to define a starter set of medication-related alerts that healthcare organizations can implement in their clinical information systems. We also draw on the experiences of diverse institutions to highlight the realities of implementing medication decision support. These findings represent the experiences of institutions with a long history in the domain of medication decision support, and the hope is that this guidance may improve the feasibility and efficiency CDS adoption across healthcare settings.

Defining and Measuring Decision-Making for the Management of Trauma Patients.

PubMed

Madani, Amin; Gips, Amanda; Razek, Tarek; Deckelbaum, Dan L; Mulder, David S; Grushka, Jeremy R

Effective management of trauma patients is heavily dependent on sound judgment and decision-making. Yet, current methods for training and assessing these advanced cognitive skills are subjective, lack standardization, and are prone to error. This qualitative study aims to define and characterize the cognitive and interpersonal competencies required to optimally manage injured patients. Cognitive and hierarchical task analyses for managing unstable trauma patients were performed using qualitative methods to map the thoughts, behaviors, and practices that characterize expert performance. Trauma team leaders and board-certified trauma surgeons participated in semistructured interviews that were transcribed verbatim. Data were supplemented with content from published literature and prospectively collected field notes from observations of the trauma team during trauma activations. The data were coded and analyzed using grounded theory by 2 independent reviewers. A framework was created based on 14 interviews with experts (lasting 1-2 hours each), 35 field observations (20 [57%] blunt; 15 [43%] penetrating; median Injury Severity Score 20 [13-25]), and 15 literary sources. Experts included 11 trauma surgeons and 3 emergency physicians from 7 Level 1 academic institutions in North America (median years in practice: 12 [8-17]). Twenty-nine competencies were identified, including 17 (59%) related to situation awareness, 6 (21%) involving decision-making, and 6 (21%) requiring interpersonal skills. Of 40 potential errors that were identified, root causes were mapped to errors in situation awareness (20 [50%]), decision-making (10 [25%]), or interpersonal skills (10 [25%]). This study defines cognitive and interpersonal competencies that are essential for the management of trauma patients. This framework may serve as the basis for novel curricula to train and assess decision-making skills, and to develop quality-control metrics to improve team and individual performance. Copyright © 2017 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reason's Enemy Is Not Emotion: Engagement of Cognitive Control Networks Explains Biases in Gain/Loss Framing

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

In the classic gain/loss framing effect, describing a gamble as a potential gain or loss biases people to make risk-averse or risk-seeking decisions, respectively. The canonical explanation for this effect is that frames differentially modulate emotional processes, which in turn leads to irrational choice behavior. Here, we evaluate the source of framing biases by integrating functional magnetic resonance imaging data from 143 human participants performing a gain/loss framing task with meta-analytic data from >8000 neuroimaging studies. We found that activation during choices consistent with the framing effect were most correlated with activation associated with the resting or default brain, while activation during choices inconsistent with the framing effect was most correlated with the task-engaged brain. Our findings argue against the common interpretation of gain/loss framing as a competition between emotion and control. Instead, our study indicates that this effect results from differential cognitive engagement across decision frames. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The biases frequently exhibited by human decision makers have often been attributed to the presence of emotion. Using a large fMRI sample and analysis of whole-brain networks defined with the meta-analytic tool Neurosynth, we find that neural activity during frame-biased decisions was more significantly associated with default behaviors (and the absence of executive control) than with emotion. These findings point to a role for neuroscience in shaping long-standing psychological theories in decision science. PMID:28264981

Reason's Enemy Is Not Emotion: Engagement of Cognitive Control Networks Explains Biases in Gain/Loss Framing.

PubMed

Li, Rosa; Smith, David V; Clithero, John A; Venkatraman, Vinod; Carter, R McKell; Huettel, Scott A

2017-03-29

In the classic gain/loss framing effect, describing a gamble as a potential gain or loss biases people to make risk-averse or risk-seeking decisions, respectively. The canonical explanation for this effect is that frames differentially modulate emotional processes, which in turn leads to irrational choice behavior. Here, we evaluate the source of framing biases by integrating functional magnetic resonance imaging data from 143 human participants performing a gain/loss framing task with meta-analytic data from >8000 neuroimaging studies. We found that activation during choices consistent with the framing effect were most correlated with activation associated with the resting or default brain, while activation during choices inconsistent with the framing effect was most correlated with the task-engaged brain. Our findings argue against the common interpretation of gain/loss framing as a competition between emotion and control. Instead, our study indicates that this effect results from differential cognitive engagement across decision frames. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The biases frequently exhibited by human decision makers have often been attributed to the presence of emotion. Using a large fMRI sample and analysis of whole-brain networks defined with the meta-analytic tool Neurosynth, we find that neural activity during frame-biased decisions was more significantly associated with default behaviors (and the absence of executive control) than with emotion. These findings point to a role for neuroscience in shaping long-standing psychological theories in decision science. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/373588-11$15.00/0.

Classifying clinical decision making: a unifying approach.

PubMed

Buckingham, C D; Adams, A

2000-10-01

This is the first of two linked papers exploring decision making in nursing which integrate research evidence from different clinical and academic disciplines. Currently there are many decision-making theories, each with their own distinctive concepts and terminology, and there is a tendency for separate disciplines to view their own decision-making processes as unique. Identifying good nursing decisions and where improvements can be made is therefore problematic, and this can undermine clinical and organizational effectiveness, as well as nurses' professional status. Within the unifying framework of psychological classification, the overall aim of the two papers is to clarify and compare terms, concepts and processes identified in a diversity of decision-making theories, and to demonstrate their underlying similarities. It is argued that the range of explanations used across disciplines can usefully be re-conceptualized as classification behaviour. This paper explores problems arising from multiple theories of decision making being applied to separate clinical disciplines. Attention is given to detrimental effects on nursing practice within the context of multidisciplinary health-care organizations and the changing role of nurses. The different theories are outlined and difficulties in applying them to nursing decisions highlighted. An alternative approach based on a general model of classification is then presented in detail to introduce its terminology and the unifying framework for interpreting all types of decisions. The classification model is used to provide the context for relating alternative philosophical approaches and to define decision-making activities common to all clinical domains. This may benefit nurses by improving multidisciplinary collaboration and weakening clinical elitism.

Multi Criteria Evaluation Module for RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

2015-04-01

Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) module is one of the five modules of RiskChanges spatial decision support system. RiskChanges web-based platform aims to analyze changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provides tools for selecting the best risk reduction alternative. It is developed under CHANGES framework (changes-itn.eu) and INCREO project (increo-fp7.eu). MCE tool helps decision makers and spatial planners to evaluate, sort and rank the decision alternatives. The users can choose among different indicators that are defined within the system using Risk and Cost Benefit analysis results besides they can add their own indicators. Subsequently the system standardizes and prioritizes them. Finally, the best decision alternative is selected by using the weighted sum model (WSM). The Application of this work is to facilitate the effect of MCE for analyzing changing risk over the time under different scenarios and future years by adopting a group decision making into practice and comparing the results by numeric and graphical view within the system. We believe that this study helps decision-makers to achieve the best solution by expressing their preferences for strategies under future scenarios. Keywords: Multi-Criteria Evaluation, Spatial Decision Support System, Weighted Sum Model, Natural Hazard Risk Management

Appropriateness for Total Joint Replacement: Perspectives of Decision-Makers

PubMed Central

Clavel, Nathalie; De coster, Carolyn; Pomey, Marie-Pascale; Sanmartin, Claudia; Bohm, Éric; Dunbar, Michael J.; Frank, CY; Hawker, Gillian; Noseworthy, Tom

2016-01-01

Background: Improving access to total joint replacement (TJR) has been a priority. Without robust mechanisms to ensure appropriateness, these procedures may be overused, incurring substantial costs. In that context, decision-makers are particularly concerned with the appropriateness of TJR. Objective: While our previous research focused on the appropriateness of TJR from clinical and patient perspectives, this study is aimed at understanding decision-makers' perspectives. Methods: Using a semi-structured guide, we interviewed a convenience sample of decision-makers in four Canadian provinces (Alberta, Manitoba, Nova Scotia and Quebec) between February and March 2013. For the purposes of this study, a decision-maker was defined as a manager, institutional leader or policy maker. Results: Fifteen interviews were conducted with decision-makers at ministry (n = 3), regional (n = 6) and institutional levels (n = 8). Decision-makers see themselves as having a key role in the appropriateness discourse, that of optimizing resource allocation and efficient delivery of services for TJR, to improve population outcomes. Conclusion: The decision-makers' view of appropriateness recognizes the importance of the clinical view, but it offers a very different input into the appropriateness discourse, more closely aligned with appropriateness of setting, which refers to cost-effectiveness considerations. PMID:27027795

Restoration handbook for sagebrush steppe ecosystems with emphasis on greater sage-grouse habitat—Part 2. Landscape level restoration decisions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pyke, David A.; Knick, Steven T.; Chambers, Jeanne C.; Pellant, Mike; Miller, Richard F.; Beck, Jeffrey L.; Doescher, Paul S.; Schupp, Eugene W.; Roundy, Bruce A.; Brunson, Mark; McIver, James D.

2015-12-07

Land managers do not have resources to restore all locations because of the extent of the restoration need and because some land uses are not likely to change, therefore, restoration decisions made at the landscape to regional scale may improve the effectiveness of restoration to achieve landscape and local restoration objectives. We present a landscape restoration decision tool intended to assist decision makers in determining landscape objectives, to identify and prioritize landscape areas where sites for priority restoration projects might be located, and to aid in ultimately selecting restoration sites guided by criteria used to define the landscape objectives. The landscape restoration decision tool is structured in five sections that should be addressed sequentially. Each section has a primary question or statement followed by related questions and statements to assist the user in addressing the primary question or statement. This handbook will guide decision makers through the important process steps of identifying appropriate questions, gathering appropriate data, developing landscape objectives, and prioritizing landscape patches where potential sites for restoration projects may be located. Once potential sites are selected, land managers can move to the site-specific decision tool to guide restoration decisions at the site level.

Confidence and Information Access in Clinical Decision-Making: An Examination of the Cognitive Processes that affect the Information-seeking Behavior of Physicians.

PubMed

Uy, Raymonde Charles; Sarmiento, Raymond Francis; Gavino, Alex; Fontelo, Paul

2014-01-01

Clinical decision-making involves the interplay between cognitive processes and physicians' perceptions of confidence in the context of their information-seeking behavior. The objectives of the study are: to examine how these concepts interact, to determine whether physician confidence, defined in relation to information need, affects clinical decision-making, and if information access improves decision accuracy. We analyzed previously collected data about resident physicians' perceptions of information need from a study comparing abstracts and full-text articles in clinical decision accuracy. We found that there is a significant relation between confidence and accuracy (φ=0.164, p<0.01). We also found various differences in the alignment of confidence and accuracy, demonstrating the concepts of underconfidence and overconfidence across years of clinical experience. Access to online literature also has a significant effect on accuracy (p<0.001). These results highlight possible CDSS strategies to reduce medical errors.

The effect of polysemy on lexical decision time: now you see it, now you don't.

PubMed

Millis, M L; Button, S B

1989-03-01

Gernsbacher (1984) found that number of word meanings (polysemy) did not influence lexical decision time when it was operationalized as number of dictionary definitions. This finding supports her contention that subjects do not store all possible dictionary meanings for words in memory. The present experiments extended Gernsbacher's research by determining whether more psychologically valid measures of polysemy affect lexical decision time. Three metrics were used to represent the meanings that subjects actually access from memory (accessible polysemy): (1) the first meanings subjects think of when asked to define stimulus words, (2) all the meanings subjects generate for words, and (3) the average number of meanings subjects generate. The results showed that the second and third metrics of polysemy influenced lexical decision time, whereas the first metric (representing mostly the access to dominant meanings for words) only approached significance.

From Executive Desks to the Arctic Ocean and Back: A Dynamic Framework for Natural Resource Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auad, G.

2017-12-01

The translating of observational evidence for decision- and policy-making needs to be placed within the context of specific organizational structures to achieve efficient and effective natural resource management. To reach that stage, these structures would consistently integrate governance, decision-making, and legislative and policy elements that, as a whole, can be harmoniously coupled to the natural system under consideration, while being aligned toward a high level management goal. Examples will be highlighted where communication structures found in nature connect hierarchical and spatial scales and are the core of effective living and physical systems. Based on these concepts, a framework will be described while linkages and tradeoffs will be established among the different components of the socio-ecological system being addressed. The importance for decision- and policy-makers to define a continuous learning dynamics will be highlighted as a way to ensure enhanced (scientific and traditional) knowledge over time and therefore reduced uncertainty at decision moment. The need for an overarching management goal will be addressed while its underpinnings will be described and conceptually linked through different internal and external communication models.

Managing flowback and produced water from hydraulic fracturing under stochastic environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Sun, A. Y.; Duncan, I. J.; Vesselinov, V. V.

2017-12-01

A large volume of wastewater is being generated from hydraulic fracturing in shale gas plays, including flowback and produced water. The produced wastewater in terms of its quantity and quality has become one of the main environmental problems facing shale gas industries worldwide. Cost-effective planning and management of flowback and produced water is highly desirable. Careful choice of treatment, disposal, and reuse options can lower costs and reduce potential environmental impacts. To handle the recourse issue in decision-making, a two-stage stochastic management model is developed to provide optimal alternatives for fracturing wastewater management. The proposed model is capable of prompting corrective actions to allow decision makers to adjust the pre-defined management strategies. By using this two-stage model, potential penalties arising from decision infeasibility can be minimized. The applicability of the proposed model is demonstrated using a representative synthetic example, in which tradeoffs between economic and environmental goals are quantified. This approach can generate informed defensible decisions for shale gas wastewater management. In addition, probabilistic and non-probabilistic uncertainties are effectively addressed.

Employee self-enhancement motives and job performance behaviors: investigating the moderating effects of employee role ambiguity and managerial perceptions of employee commitment.

PubMed

Yun, Seokhwa; Takeuchi, Riki; Liu, Wei

2007-05-01

This study examined the effects of employee self-enhancement motives on job performance behaviors (organizational citizenship behaviors and task performance) and the value of these behaviors to them. The authors propose that employees display job performance behaviors in part to enhance their self-image, especially when their role is not clearly defined. They further argue that the effects of these behaviors on managerial reward recommendation decisions should be stronger when managers believe the employees to be more committed. The results from a sample of 84 working students indicate that role ambiguity moderated the effects of self-enhancement motives on job performance behaviors and that managerial perceptions of an employee's commitment moderated the effects of those organizational citizenship behaviors that are aimed at other individuals on managers' reward allocation decisions. 2007 APA, all rights reserved

Acceptability and Perceived Benefits and Risks of Public and Patient Involvement in Health Care Policy: A Delphi Survey in Belgian Stakeholders.

PubMed

Cleemput, Irina; Christiaens, Wendy; Kohn, Laurence; Léonard, Christian; Daue, François; Denis, Alain

2015-06-01

In systems with public health insurance, coverage decisions should reflect social values. Deliberation among stakeholders could achieve this goal, but rarely involves patients and citizens directly. This study aimed at evaluating the acceptability, and the perceived benefits and risks, of public and patient involvement (PPI) in coverage decision making to Belgian stakeholders. A two-round Delphi survey was conducted among all stakeholder groups. The survey was constructed on the basis of interviews with 10 key stakeholders and a review of the literature on participation models. Consensus was defined as 65% or more of the respondents agreeing with a statement and less than 15% disagreeing. Eighty stakeholders participated in both rounds. They were defined as the Delphi panel. Belgian stakeholders are open toward PPI in coverage decision processes. Benefits are expected to exceed risks. The preferred model for involvement is to consult citizens or patients, within the existing decision-making structures and at specific milestones in the process. Consulting citizens and patients is a higher level of involvement than merely informing them and a lower level than letting them participate actively. Consultation involves asking nonbinding advice on (parts of) the decision problem. According to the Delphi panel, the benefits of PPI could be increasing awareness among members of the general public and patients about the challenges and costs of health care, and enriched decision processes with expertise by experience from patients. Potential risks include subjectivity, insufficient resources to participate and weigh on the process, difficulties in finding effective ways to express a collective opinion, the risk of manipulation, and lobbying or power games of other stakeholders. PPI in coverage decision-making processes is acceptable to Belgian stakeholders, be it in different ways for different types of decisions. Benefits are expected to outweigh risks. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A MDMP for All Seasons: Modifying the MDMP for Success

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-05-26

4 Rational Decision - Making Theory ............................................................................. 5 Limited Rationality ... making instead of using the MDMP, which is an analytical decision - making process. Limited rationality and analytical decision - making will be discussed...limited rationality decision - making theories. FM 5.0 defines fundamentals of planning, such as commander’s involvement and developing creative plans

Reflective Decision Making among University Department Heads across Academic Disciplines

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kampmann, Jennifer A.

2012-01-01

Within the scope of leadership and management, decision making greatly defines the role of university administrator, in particular, the university department head and his/her ability to be a reflective practitioner in the realm of decision making. Decision making is one characteristic of university department head work which warrants close…

Closed-Loop Analysis of Soft Decisions for Serial Links

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lansdowne, Chatwin A.; Steele, Glen F.; Zucha, Joan P.; Schlesinger, Adam M.

2013-01-01

We describe the benefit of using closed-loop measurements for a radio receiver paired with a counterpart transmitter. We show that real-time analysis of the soft decision output of a receiver can provide rich and relevant insight far beyond the traditional hard-decision bit error rate (BER) test statistic. We describe a Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) implementation for closed-loop measurements on single- or dual- (orthogonal) channel serial data communication links. The analyzer has been used to identify, quantify, and prioritize contributors to implementation loss in live-time during the development of software defined radios. This test technique gains importance as modern receivers are providing soft decision symbol synchronization as radio links are challenged to push more data and more protocol overhead through noisier channels, and software-defined radios (SDRs) use error-correction codes that approach Shannon's theoretical limit of performance.

Soft Decision Analyzer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lansdowne, Chatwin; Steele, Glen; Zucha, Joan; Schlesinger, Adam

2013-01-01

We describe the benefit of using closed-loop measurements for a radio receiver paired with a counterpart transmitter. We show that real-time analysis of the soft decision output of a receiver can provide rich and relevant insight far beyond the traditional hard-decision bit error rate (BER) test statistic. We describe a Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) implementation for closed-loop measurements on single- or dual- (orthogonal) channel serial data communication links. The analyzer has been used to identify, quantify, and prioritize contributors to implementation loss in live-time during the development of software defined radios. This test technique gains importance as modern receivers are providing soft decision symbol synchronization as radio links are challenged to push more data and more protocol overhead through noisier channels, and software-defined radios (SDRs) use error-correction codes that approach Shannon's theoretical limit of performance.

Teachers as Decision-Makers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shedd, Joseph B.; And Others

Scholars working from various perspectives are beginning to define teaching as a decision-making process. Research shows that teachers are reflective and connect knowledge to situations through observation, understanding, analysis, interpretation, and decision-making. This paper provides empirical evidence to show the relationship of…

Distributed decision support for the 21st century mission space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McQuay, William K.

2002-07-01

The past decade has produced significant changes in the conduct of military operations: increased humanitarian missions, asymmetric warfare, the reliance on coalitions and allies, stringent rules of engagement, concern about casualties, and the need for sustained air operations. Future mission commanders will need to assimilate a tremendous amount of information, make quick-response decisions, and quantify the effects of those decisions in the face of uncertainty. Integral to this process is creating situational assessment-understanding the mission space, simulation to analyze alternative futures, current capabilities, planning assessments, course-of-action assessments, and a common operational picture-keeping everyone on the same sheet of paper. Decision support tools in a distributed collaborative environment offer the capability of decomposing these complex multitask processes and distributing them over a dynamic set of execution assets. Decision support technologies can semi-automate activities, such as planning an operation, that have a reasonably well-defined process and provide machine-level interfaces to refine the myriad of information that is not currently fused. The marriage of information and simulation technologies provides the mission commander with a collaborative virtual environment for planning and decision support.

Behavioural and physiological effects of finely balanced decision-making in chickens.

PubMed

Davies, Anna C; Nicol, Christine J; Persson, Mia E; Radford, Andrew N

2014-01-01

In humans, more difficult decisions result in behavioural and physiological changes suggestive of increased arousal, but little is known about the effect of decision difficulty in other species. A difficult decision can have a number of characteristics; we aimed to monitor how finely balanced decisions, compared to unbalanced ones, affected the behaviour and physiology of chickens. An unbalanced decision was one in which the two options were of unequal net value (1 (Q1) vs. 6 (Q6) pieces of sweetcorn with no cost associated with either option); a finely balanced decision was one in which the options were of equal net value (i.e. hens were "indifferent" to both options). To identify hens' indifference, a titration procedure was used in which a cost (electromagnetic weight on an access door) was applied to the Q6 option, to find the individual point at which hens chose this option approximately equally to Q1 via a non-weighted door. We then compared behavioural and physiological indicators of arousal (head movements, latency to choose, heart-rate variability and surface body temperature) when chickens made decisions that were unbalanced or finely balanced. Significant physiological (heart-rate variability) and behavioural (latency to pen) differences were found between the finely balanced and balanced conditions, but these were likely to be artefacts of the greater time and effort required to push through the weighted doors. No other behavioural and physiological measures were significantly different between the decision categories. We suggest that more information is needed on when best to monitor likely changes in arousal during decision-making and that future studies should consider decisions defined as difficult in other ways.

How well-run boards make decisions.

PubMed

Useem, Michael

2006-11-01

In the aftermath of seismic debacles like those that toppled Enron and WorldCom, corporate boards have been shaken up and made over. More directors are independent these days, for instance, and corporations now disclose directors' salaries and committee members' names. Research shows that most of the changes are having a positive effect on companies' performance. They are primarily structural, though, and don't go to the heart of a board's work: making the choices that shape a firm's future. Which decisions boards own and how those calls are made are largely hidden from the public. As a result, boards are often unable to learn from the best governance practices of their counterparts at other companies. This article pulls back the curtain and provides an inside look. Drawing on interviews with board members and executives at 31 companies, along with a close examination of three boardroom decisions, the author identifies several formal processes that can help companies improve their decision making: creating calendars that specify when the board and the standing committees will consider key items; drafting charters that define the decisions committees are responsible for; and developing decision protocols that divvy up responsibilities between directors and executives. The author also identifies a number of informal decision-making principles: Items that are strategically significant and touch on the firm's core values should go to the board. Large decisions should be divided into small pieces, so the board can devote sufficient attention to each one. Directors must remain vigilant to ensure that their decisions are effectively implemented. The CEO and either the nonexecutive chair or the lead director should engage in ongoing dialogue regarding which decisions to take to the full board and when. And directors should challenge assumptions before making yes-or-no decisions on management proposals.

Decision making under ambiguity and under risk in mesial temporal lobe epilepsy.

PubMed

Delazer, Margarete; Zamarian, Laura; Bonatti, Elisabeth; Kuchukhidze, Giorgi; Koppelstätter, Florian; Bodner, Thomas; Benke, Thomas; Trinka, Eugen

2010-01-01

Decision making is essential in everyday life. Though the importance of the mesial temporal lobe in emotional processing and feedback learning is generally recognized, decision making in mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (mTLE) is almost unexplored so far. Twenty-eight consecutive epilepsy patients with drug resistant mTLE and fifty healthy controls performed decision tasks under initial ambiguity (participants have to learn by feedback to make advantageous decisions) and under risk (advantageous choices may be made by estimating risks and by rational strategies). A subgroup analysis compared the performance of patients affected by MRI-verified abnormalities of the hippocampus or amygdala. The effect of lesion side was also assessed. In decision under ambiguity, mTLE patients showed marked deficits and did not improve over the task. Patients with hippocampus abnormality and patients with amygdala abnormality showed comparable deficits. No difference was found between right and left TLE groups. In decision under risk, mTLE patients performed at the same level as controls. Results suggest that mTLE patients have difficulties in learning from feedback and in making decisions in uncertain, ambiguous situations. By contrast, they are able to make advantageous decisions when full information is given and risks, possible gains and losses are exactly defined.

Species of conservation concern and environmental stressors: Local regional and global effects [Chapter 6

Treesearch

Steven M. Ostoja; Mathew L. Brooks; Jeanne C. Chambers; Burton K. Pendleton

2013-01-01

Species conservation has traditionally been based on individual species within the context of their requisite habitat, which is generally defined as the communities and ecosystems deemed necessary for their persistence. Conservation decisions are hampered by the fact that environmental stressors that potentially threaten the persistence of species can operate at...

Retirement Savings Behavior of Higher Education Employees

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dulebohn, James H.; Murray, Brian

2007-01-01

Higher education employees often participate in university-sponsored defined contribution pension plans that place the investment decision responsibility upon them. In order to examine investment decision-making behavior with retirement savings plans we investigated attitude-mediated, individual difference determinants of risky decision-making…

The effect of patient narratives on information search in a web-based breast cancer decision aid: an eye-tracking study.

PubMed

Shaffer, Victoria A; Owens, Justin; Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J

2013-12-17

Previous research has examined the impact of patient narratives on treatment choices, but to our knowledge, no study has examined the effect of narratives on information search. Further, no research has considered the relative impact of their format (text vs video) on health care decisions in a single study. Our goal was to examine the impact of video and text-based narratives on information search in a Web-based patient decision aid for early stage breast cancer. Fifty-six women were asked to imagine that they had been diagnosed with early stage breast cancer and needed to choose between two surgical treatments (lumpectomy with radiation or mastectomy). Participants were randomly assigned to view one of four versions of a Web decision aid. Two versions of the decision aid included videos of interviews with patients and physicians or videos of interviews with physicians only. To distinguish between the effect of narratives and the effect of videos, we created two text versions of the Web decision aid by replacing the patient and physician interviews with text transcripts of the videos. Participants could freely browse the Web decision aid until they developed a treatment preference. We recorded participants' eye movements using the Tobii 1750 eye-tracking system equipped with Tobii Studio software. A priori, we defined 24 areas of interest (AOIs) in the Web decision aid. These AOIs were either separate pages of the Web decision aid or sections within a single page covering different content. We used multilevel modeling to examine the effect of narrative presence, narrative format, and their interaction on information search. There was a significant main effect of condition, P=.02; participants viewing decision aids with patient narratives spent more time searching for information than participants viewing the decision aids without narratives. The main effect of format was not significant, P=.10. However, there was a significant condition by format interaction on fixation duration, P<.001. When comparing the two video decision aids, participants viewing the narrative version spent more time searching for information than participants viewing the control version of the decision aid. In contrast, participants viewing the narrative version of the text decision aid spent less time searching for information than participants viewing the control version of the text decision aid. Further, narratives appear to have a global effect on information search; these effects were not limited to specific sections of the decision aid that contained topics discussed in the patient stories. The observed increase in fixation duration with video patient testimonials is consistent with the idea that the vividness of the video content could cause greater elaboration of the message, thereby encouraging greater information search. Conversely, because reading requires more effortful processing than watching, reading patient narratives may have decreased participant motivation to engage in more reading in the remaining sections of the Web decision aid. These findings suggest that the format of patient stories may be equally as important as their content in determining their effect on decision making. More research is needed to understand why differences in format result in fundamental differences in information search.

[Generalization of the results of clinical studies through the analysis of subgroups].

PubMed

Costa, João; Fareleira, Filipa; Ascensão, Raquel; Vaz Carneiro, António

2012-01-01

Subgroup analysis in clinical trials are usually performed to define the potential heterogeneity of treatment effect in relation with the baseline risk, physiopathology, practical application of therapy or the under-utilization in clinical practice of effective interventions due to uncertainties of its benefit/risk ratio. When appropriately planned, subgroup analysis are a valid methodology the define benefits in subgroups of patients, thus providing good quality evidence to support clinical decision making. However, in order to be correct, subgroup analysis should be defined a priori, done in small numbers, should be fully reported and, most important, must endure statistical tests for interaction. In this paper we present an example of the treatment of post-menopausal osteoporosis, in which the benefits of an intervention (the higher the fracture risk is, the better the benefit is) with a specific agent (bazedoxifene) was only disclosed after a post-hoc analysis of the initial global trial sample.

The Value of Medicines: A Crucial but Vague Concept.

PubMed

Antoñanzas, Fernando; Terkola, Robert; Postma, Maarten

2016-12-01

Health Technology Assessment is increasingly used to evaluate the value of healthcare products and to prioritize resources; however, defining exactly what value is and how it should be measured remains a challenge. In this article, we report the results of a literature review, focusing on nine European countries, with the aim of investigating how value is defined from the perspective of different stakeholders, how definitions of value are used, and how value is incorporated into decision making. Only three articles were identified that presented definitions of value, and there was no single shared definition of value in healthcare, which appears to be a highly subjective concept. The majority of the countries investigated combine clinical assessment with economic evaluation to make reimbursement recommendations; the quality-adjusted life-year is the most commonly used measure of value but does not capture broader aspects of value that may be important to patients and healthcare systems. We describe the use of value-based pricing and multi-criteria decision analysis, two approaches to the incorporation of broader aspects of value into decision making. Overall, we have identified considerable variation in how a product's value is defined by different stakeholders. Although a universal understanding of value in healthcare is important, it is clear that current definitions are insufficient, potentially leading to inconsistent reimbursement decisions. Ultimately, the establishment of clearer policies for defining and measuring value in healthcare is needed, and is likely to lead to improvements in the consistency of decision making.

Navigating Monogamy: Nonapeptide Sensitivity in a Memory Neural Circuit May Shape Social Behavior and Mating Decisions.

PubMed

Ophir, Alexander G

2017-01-01

The role of memory in mating systems is often neglected despite the fact that most mating systems are defined in part by how animals use space. Monogamy, for example, is usually characterized by affiliative (e.g., pairbonding) and defensive (e.g., mate guarding) behaviors, but a high degree of spatial overlap in home range use is the easiest defining feature of monogamous animals in the wild. The nonapeptides vasopressin and oxytocin have been the focus of much attention for their importance in modulating social behavior, however this work has largely overshadowed their roles in learning and memory. To date, the understanding of memory systems and mechanisms governing social behavior have progressed relatively independently. Bridging these two areas will provide a deeper appreciation for understanding behavior, and in particular the mechanisms that mediate reproductive decision-making. Here, I argue that the ability to mate effectively as monogamous individuals is linked to the ability to track conspecifics in space. I discuss the connectivity across some well-known social and spatial memory nuclei, and propose that the nonapeptide receptors within these structures form a putative "socio-spatial memory neural circuit." This purported circuit may function to integrate social and spatial information to shape mating decisions in a context-dependent fashion. The lateral septum and/or the nucleus accumbens, and neuromodulation therein, may act as an intermediary to relate socio-spatial information with social behavior. Identifying mechanisms responsible for relating information about the social world with mechanisms mediating mating tactics is crucial to fully appreciate the suite of factors driving reproductive decisions and social decision-making.

Risk-based decision making to manage water quality failures caused by combined sewer overflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sriwastava, A. K.; Torres-Matallana, J. A.; Tait, S.; Schellart, A.

2017-12-01

Regulatory authorities set certain environmental permit for water utilities such that the combined sewer overflows (CSO) managed by these companies conform to the regulations. These utility companies face the risk of paying penalty or negative publicity in case they breach the environmental permit. These risks can be addressed by designing appropriate solutions such as investing in additional infrastructure which improve the system capacity and reduce the impact of CSO spills. The performance of these solutions is often estimated using urban drainage models. Hence, any uncertainty in these models can have a significant effect on the decision making process. This study outlines a risk-based decision making approach to address water quality failure caused by CSO spills. A calibrated lumped urban drainage model is used to simulate CSO spill quality in Haute-Sûre catchment in Luxembourg. Uncertainty in rainfall and model parameters is propagated through Monte Carlo simulations to quantify uncertainty in the concentration of ammonia in the CSO spill. A combination of decision alternatives such as the construction of a storage tank at the CSO and the reduction in the flow contribution of catchment surfaces are selected as planning measures to avoid the water quality failure. Failure is defined as exceedance of a concentration-duration based threshold based on Austrian emission standards for ammonia (De Toffol, 2006) with a certain frequency. For each decision alternative, uncertainty quantification results into a probability distribution of the number of annual CSO spill events which exceed the threshold. For each alternative, a buffered failure probability as defined in Rockafellar & Royset (2010), is estimated. Buffered failure probability (pbf) is a conservative estimate of failure probability (pf), however, unlike failure probability, it includes information about the upper tail of the distribution. A pareto-optimal set of solutions is obtained by performing mean- pbf optimization. The effectiveness of using buffered failure probability compared to the failure probability is tested by comparing the solutions obtained by using mean-pbf and mean-pf optimizations.

What to say and how to say it: effective communication for cardiovascular disease prevention.

PubMed

Navar, Ann Marie; Stone, Neil J; Martin, Seth S

2016-09-01

Current guidelines for cholesterol treatment emphasize the importance of engaging patients in a risk-benefit discussion prior to initiating statin therapy. Although current risk prediction algorithms are well defined, there is less data on how to communicate with patients about cardiovascular disease risk, benefits of treatment, and possible adverse effects. We propose a four-part model for effective shared decision-making: 1) Assessing patient priorities, perceived risk, and prior experience with cardiovascular risk reduction; 2) Arriving at a recommendation for therapy based on the patient's risk of disease, guideline recommendations, new clinical trial data, and patient preferences; 3) Communicating this recommendation along with risks, benefits, and alternatives to therapy following best practices for discussing numeric risk; and 4) Arriving at a shared decision with the patient with ongoing reassessment as risk factors and patient priorities change.

[Cancer screening in clinical practice: the value of shared decision-making].

PubMed

Cornuz, Jacques; Junod, Noëlle; Pasche, Olivier; Guessous, Idris

2010-07-14

Shared decision-making approach to uncertain clinical situations such as cancer screening seems more appropriate than ever. Shared decision making can be defined as an interactive process where physician and patient share all the stages of the decision making process. For patients who wish to be implicated in the management of their health conditions, physicians might express difficulty to do so. Use of patient decision aids appears to improve such process of shared decision making.

Regret and the rationality of choices.

PubMed

Bourgeois-Gironde, Sacha

2010-01-27

Regret helps to optimize decision behaviour. It can be defined as a rational emotion. Several recent neurobiological studies have confirmed the interface between emotion and cognition at which regret is located and documented its role in decision behaviour. These data give credibility to the incorporation of regret in decision theory that had been proposed by economists in the 1980s. However, finer distinctions are required in order to get a better grasp of how regret and behaviour influence each other. Regret can be defined as a predictive error signal but this signal does not necessarily transpose into a decision-weight influencing behaviour. Clinical studies on several types of patients show that the processing of an error signal and its influence on subsequent behaviour can be dissociated. We propose a general understanding of how regret and decision-making are connected in terms of regret being modulated by rational antecedents of choice. Regret and the modification of behaviour on its basis will depend on the criteria of rationality involved in decision-making. We indicate current and prospective lines of research in order to refine our views on how regret contributes to optimal decision-making.

Strategic decision making under climate change: a case study on Lake Maggiore water system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Micotti, M.; Soncini Sessa, R.; Weber, E.

2014-09-01

Water resources planning processes involve different kinds of decisions that are generally evaluated under a stationary climate scenario assumption. In general, the possible combinations of interventions are mutually compared as single alternatives. However, the ongoing climate change requires us to reconsider this approach. Indeed, what have to be compared are not individual alternatives, but families of alternatives, characterized by the same structural decisions, i.e. by actions that have long-term effects and entail irrevocable changes in the system. The rationale is that the structural actions, once they have been implemented, cannot be easily modified, while the management decisions can be adapted to the evolving conditions. This paper considers this methodological problem in a real case study, in which a strategic decision has to be taken: a new barrage was proposed to regulate Lake Maggiore outflow, but, alternatively, either the present barrage can be maintained with its present regulation norms or with a new one. The problem was dealt with by multi-criteria decision analysis involving many stakeholders and two decision-makers. An exhaustive set of indicators was defined in the participatory process, conducted under the integrated water resource management paradigm, and many efficient (in Pareto sense) regulation policies were identified. The paper explores different formulations of a global index to evaluate and compare the effectiveness of the classes of alternatives under both stationary and changing hydrological scenarios in order to assess their adaptability to the ongoing climate change.

Real-Time Optimal Flood Control Decision Making and Risk Propagation Under Multiple Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Feilin; Zhong, Ping-An; Sun, Yimeng; Yeh, William W.-G.

2017-12-01

Multiple uncertainties exist in the optimal flood control decision-making process, presenting risks involving flood control decisions. This paper defines the main steps in optimal flood control decision making that constitute the Forecast-Optimization-Decision Making (FODM) chain. We propose a framework for supporting optimal flood control decision making under multiple uncertainties and evaluate risk propagation along the FODM chain from a holistic perspective. To deal with uncertainties, we employ stochastic models at each link of the FODM chain. We generate synthetic ensemble flood forecasts via the martingale model of forecast evolution. We then establish a multiobjective stochastic programming with recourse model for optimal flood control operation. The Pareto front under uncertainty is derived via the constraint method coupled with a two-step process. We propose a novel SMAA-TOPSIS model for stochastic multicriteria decision making. Then we propose the risk assessment model, the risk of decision-making errors and rank uncertainty degree to quantify the risk propagation process along the FODM chain. We conduct numerical experiments to investigate the effects of flood forecast uncertainty on optimal flood control decision making and risk propagation. We apply the proposed methodology to a flood control system in the Daduhe River basin in China. The results indicate that the proposed method can provide valuable risk information in each link of the FODM chain and enable risk-informed decisions with higher reliability.

The role of internal reference prices in consumers' willingness to pay judgments: Thaler's Beer Pricing Task revisited.

PubMed

Ranyard, R; Charlton, J P; Williamson, J

2001-02-01

Alternative reference prices, either displayed in the environment (external) or recalled from memory (internal) are known to influence consumer judgments and decisions. In one line of previous research, internal reference prices have been defined in terms of general price expectations. However, Thaler (Marketing Science 4 (1985) 199; Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 12 (1999) 183) defined them as fair prices expected from specific types of seller. Using a Beer Pricing Task, he found that seller context had a substantial effect on willingness to pay, and concluded that this was due to specific internal reference prices evoked by specific contexts. In a think aloud study using the same task (N = 48), we found only a marginal effect of seller context. In a second study using the Beer Pricing Task and seven analogous ones (N = 144), general internal reference prices were estimated by asking people what they normally paid for various commodities. Both general internal reference prices and seller context influenced willingness to pay, although the effect of the latter was again rather small. We conclude that general internal reference prices have a greater impact in these scenarios than specific ones, because of the lower cognitive load involved in their storage and retrieval.

Bayesian Phase II optimization for time-to-event data based on historical information.

PubMed

Bertsche, Anja; Fleischer, Frank; Beyersmann, Jan; Nehmiz, Gerhard

2017-01-01

After exploratory drug development, companies face the decision whether to initiate confirmatory trials based on limited efficacy information. This proof-of-concept decision is typically performed after a Phase II trial studying a novel treatment versus either placebo or an active comparator. The article aims to optimize the design of such a proof-of-concept trial with respect to decision making. We incorporate historical information and develop pre-specified decision criteria accounting for the uncertainty of the observed treatment effect. We optimize these criteria based on sensitivity and specificity, given the historical information. Specifically, time-to-event data are considered in a randomized 2-arm trial with additional prior information on the control treatment. The proof-of-concept criterion uses treatment effect size, rather than significance. Criteria are defined on the posterior distribution of the hazard ratio given the Phase II data and the historical control information. Event times are exponentially modeled within groups, allowing for group-specific conjugate prior-to-posterior calculation. While a non-informative prior is placed on the investigational treatment, the control prior is constructed via the meta-analytic-predictive approach. The design parameters including sample size and allocation ratio are then optimized, maximizing the probability of taking the right decision. The approach is illustrated with an example in lung cancer.

Communicating about bioenergy sustainability.

PubMed

Dale, Virginia H; Kline, Keith L; Perla, Donna; Lucier, Al

2013-02-01

Defining and measuring sustainability of bioenergy systems are difficult because the systems are complex, the science is in early stages of development, and there is a need to generalize what are inherently context-specific enterprises. These challenges, and the fact that decisions are being made now, create a need for improved communications among scientists as well as between scientists and decision makers. In order for scientists to provide information that is useful to decision makers, they need to come to an agreement on how to measure and report potential risks and benefits of diverse energy alternatives in a way that allows decision makers to compare options. Scientists also need to develop approaches that contribute information about problems and opportunities relevant to policy and decision making. The need for clear communication is especially important at this time when there is a plethora of scientific papers and reports and it is difficult for the public or decision makers to assess the merits of each analysis. We propose three communication guidelines for scientists whose work can contribute to decision making: (1) relationships between the question and the analytical approach should be clearly defined and make common sense; (2) the information should be presented in a manner that non-scientists can understand; and (3) the implications of methods, assumptions, and limitations should be clear. The scientists' job is to analyze information to build a better understanding of environmental, cultural, and socioeconomic aspects of the sustainability of energy alternatives. The scientific process requires transparency, debate, review, and collaboration across disciplines and time. This paper serves as an introduction to the papers in the special issue on "Sustainability of Bioenergy Systems: Cradle to Grave" because scientific communication is essential to developing more sustainable energy systems. Together these four papers provide a framework under which the effects of bioenergy can be assessed and compared to other energy alternatives to foster sustainability.

Closed-Loop Analysis of Soft Decisions for Serial Links

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lansdowne, Chatwin A.; Steele, Glen F.; Zucha, Joan P.; Schlensinger, Adam M.

2012-01-01

Modern receivers are providing soft decision symbol synchronization as radio links are challenged to push more data and more overhead through noisier channels, and software-defined radios use error-correction techniques that approach Shannon s theoretical limit of performance. The authors describe the benefit of closed-loop measurements for a receiver when paired with a counterpart transmitter and representative channel conditions. We also describe a real-time Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) implementation for closed-loop measurements on single- or dual- (orthogonal) channel serial data communication links. The analyzer has been used to identify, quantify, and prioritize contributors to implementation loss in real-time during the development of software defined radios.

Titration in the treatment of the more troubled patient.

PubMed

Winer, J A; Ornstein, E D

2001-01-01

This article defines and discusses a modification of technique recommended by the authors in the psychoanalytic treatment of more troubled patients--a modification they call titration. Titration is defined as a conscious decision by the analyst to increase or decrease assistance (or gratification) gradually, in order to facilitate the analytic process. The authors emphasize the complexity of decisions in treatment by focusing on the decision-making processes that titration requires. Guidelines and a case vignette are presented. The authors conclude by considering some of the politics involved in the introduction of technique modifications, the salience of the titration concept, and directions for further exploration.

Single- and dual-photon absorptiometry in osteoporosis and osteomalacia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wahner, H.W.

Single- and dual-photon absorptiometric methods have been used in the past to identify populations at risk for bone loss, to define the osteoporotic syndrome in terms of bone mass, and to evaluate treatment regimens to prevent bone loss. Technical improvements have made these procedures available for the nontraumatic measurement of bone mineral in the management of the individual patient suspected of having osteoporosis or other bone loss. This requires a different approach to data interpretation because decisions have to be made on the basis of a single measurement. Osteoporosis and osteomalacia cannot be distinguished by bone mineral measurements because bothmore » are characterized by a decrease in content of bone mineral. Bone mineral measurements can be used to assess the risk of fracture and, with it, the severity of bone loss. This allows treatment decisions to be made. Repeated measurements made under well-defined conditions allow estimation of long-term rate of bone loss and monitoring of treatment effect. 38 references.« less

CENTRAL PLATEAU REMEDIATION OPTIMIZATION STUDY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

BERGMAN, T. B.; STEFANSKI, L. D.; SEELEY, P. N.

2012-09-19

THE CENTRAL PLATEAU REMEDIATION OPTIMIZATION STUDY WAS CONDUCTED TO DEVELOP AN OPTIMAL SEQUENCE OF REMEDIATION ACTIVITIES IMPLEMENTING THE CERCLA DECISION ON THE CENTRAL PLATEAU. THE STUDY DEFINES A SEQUENCE OF ACTIVITIES THAT RESULT IN AN EFFECTIVE USE OF RESOURCES FROM A STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVE WHEN CONSIDERING EQUIPMENT PROCUREMENT AND STAGING, WORKFORCE MOBILIZATION/DEMOBILIZATION, WORKFORCE LEVELING, WORKFORCE SKILL-MIX, AND OTHER REMEDIATION/DISPOSITION PROJECT EXECUTION PARAMETERS.

An Evaluation of the Long-Term Effectiveness of a Women's Leadership Development Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ericksen, Kirsten S.

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the Women's Institute for Leadership Development (W.I.L.D.) program to determine the immediate and long-term impact as defined by the alumni program participants from three cohorts (2008, 2005, 2003). A secondary focus of the career transition decision-making of recent W.I.L.D. participants was also…

Evolving Spaces in Landscape Management: Linking Spatial Information for Effective Decision-Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ravindranath, R.; Singh, Subrata

2005-01-01

Community, in the policy context, is defined on the basis of fixed in place socio-political unit having residential proximity to the resource or according to state recognized political units. With the boundaries drawn at the village level and the custodial rights of the common lands vested with various departments of the state, it is difficult on…

Clinical evaluation of patients with patellofemoral disorders.

PubMed

Post, W R

1999-01-01

Accurate clinical evaluation of patients with patellofemoral disorders is the cornerstone of effective treatment. This article defines how a careful history and physical examination can direct strategies for nonoperative and operative management. A critical analysis of traditional methods of evaluation and a streamlined rational approach to clinical evaluation is presented. Key questions and important physical findings that affect treatment decisions are emphasized.

Health care costs attributable to the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Sørensen, J

2004-01-01

A 'programme budget' for the resources used in the treatment and care of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) was developed with a view of helping decision-makers assess the appropriateness of the current use of resources and to discuss future resource allocation. The programme budget was developed using data from several national administrative registers. Patients with RA were identified by hospital diagnostic codes. The incremental cost of treating RA was defined as the difference in resource use for patients with and without RA. Incremental mortality due to RA was defined in similar way. Cost data were estimated for 5-year age groups. Patients with RA used on average 3.2 times as many health care resources as people without RA. The average 1997 incremental costs of primary and hospital care were EUR 253 and EUR 2.660 per patient respectively, corresponding to a national incremental cost of EUR 30 million (2000 price level). RA resulted in an annual loss of 1,549 life years. The programme budget approach is a useful tool in resource allocation decision-making, but discussions of alternative resource allocations must be based on robust studies of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness in the treatment of patients with RA.

Factors explaining priority setting at community mental health centres: a quantitative analysis of referral assessments.

PubMed

Grepperud, Sverre; Holman, Per Arne; Wangen, Knut Reidar

2014-12-14

Clinicians at Norwegian community mental health centres assess referrals from general practitioners and classify them into three priority groups (high priority, low priority, and refusal) according to need where need is defined by three prioritization criteria (severity, effect, and cost-effectiveness). In this study, we seek to operationalize the three criteria and analyze to what extent they have an effect on clinical-level priority setting after controlling for clinician characteristics and organisational factors. Twenty anonymous referrals were rated by 42 admission team members employed at 14 community mental health centres in the South-East Health Region of Norway. Intra-class correlation coefficients were calculated and logistic regressions were performed. Variation in clinicians' assessments of the three criteria was highest for effect and cost-effectiveness. An ordered logistic regression model showed that all three criteria for prioritization, three clinician characteristics (education, being a manager or not, and "guideline awareness"), and the centres themselves (fixed effects), explained priority decisions. The relative importance of the explanatory factors, however, depended on the priority decision studied. For the classification of all admitted patients into high- and low-priority groups, all clinician characteristics became insignificant. For the classification of patients, into those admitted and non-admitted, one criterion (effect) and "being a manager or not" became insignificant, while profession ("being a psychiatrist") became significant. Our findings suggest that variation in priority decisions can be reduced by: (i) reducing the disagreement in clinicians' assessments of cost-effectiveness and effect, and (ii) restricting priority decisions to clinicians with a similar background (education, being a manager or not, and "guideline awareness").

Decision Making: New Paradigm for Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wales, Charles E.; And Others

1986-01-01

Defines education's new paradigm as schooling based on decision making, the critical thinking skills serving it, and the knowledge base supporting it. Outlines a model decision-making process using a hypothetical breakfast problem; a late riser chooses goals, generates ideas, develops an action plan, and implements and evaluates it. (4 references)…

Next generation terminology infrastructure to support interprofessional care planning.

PubMed

Collins, Sarah; Klinkenberg-Ramirez, Stephanie; Tsivkin, Kira; Mar, Perry L; Iskhakova, Dina; Nandigam, Hari; Samal, Lipika; Rocha, Roberto A

2017-11-01

Develop a prototype of an interprofessional terminology and information model infrastructure that can enable care planning applications to facilitate patient-centered care, learn care plan linkages and associations, provide decision support, and enable automated, prospective analytics. The study steps included a 3 step approach: (1) Process model and clinical scenario development, and (2) Requirements analysis, and (3) Development and validation of information and terminology models. Components of the terminology model include: Health Concerns, Goals, Decisions, Interventions, Assessments, and Evaluations. A terminology infrastructure should: (A) Include discrete care plan concepts; (B) Include sets of profession-specific concerns, decisions, and interventions; (C) Communicate rationales, anticipatory guidance, and guidelines that inform decisions among the care team; (D) Define semantic linkages across clinical events and professions; (E) Define sets of shared patient goals and sub-goals, including patient stated goals; (F) Capture evaluation toward achievement of goals. These requirements were mapped to AHRQ Care Coordination Measures Framework. This study used a constrained set of clinician-validated clinical scenarios. Terminology models for goals and decisions are unavailable in SNOMED CT, limiting the ability to evaluate these aspects of the proposed infrastructure. Defining and linking subsets of care planning concepts appears to be feasible, but also essential to model interprofessional care planning for common co-occurring conditions and chronic diseases. We recommend the creation of goal dynamics and decision concepts in SNOMED CT to further enable the necessary models. Systems with flexible terminology management infrastructure may enable intelligent decision support to identify conflicting and aligned concerns, goals, decisions, and interventions in shared care plans, ultimately decreasing documentation effort and cognitive burden for clinicians and patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optimal cost-effective designs of Phase II proof of concept trials and associated go-no go decisions.

PubMed

Chen, Cong; Beckman, Robert A

2009-01-01

This manuscript discusses optimal cost-effective designs for Phase II proof of concept (PoC) trials. Unlike a confirmatory registration trial, a PoC trial is exploratory in nature, and sponsors of such trials have the liberty to choose the type I error rate and the power. The decision is largely driven by the perceived probability of having a truly active treatment per patient exposure (a surrogate measure to development cost), which is naturally captured in an efficiency score to be defined in this manuscript. Optimization of the score function leads to type I error rate and power (and therefore sample size) for the trial that is most cost-effective. This in turn leads to cost-effective go-no go criteria for development decisions. The idea is applied to derive optimal trial-level, program-level, and franchise-level design strategies. The study is not meant to provide any general conclusion because the settings used are largely simplified for illustrative purposes. However, through the examples provided herein, a reader should be able to gain useful insight into these design problems and apply them to the design of their own PoC trials.

The Effect of Patient Narratives on Information Search in a Web-Based Breast Cancer Decision Aid: An Eye-Tracking Study

PubMed Central

Owens, Justin; Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J

2013-01-01

Background Previous research has examined the impact of patient narratives on treatment choices, but to our knowledge, no study has examined the effect of narratives on information search. Further, no research has considered the relative impact of their format (text vs video) on health care decisions in a single study. Objective Our goal was to examine the impact of video and text-based narratives on information search in a Web-based patient decision aid for early stage breast cancer. Methods Fifty-six women were asked to imagine that they had been diagnosed with early stage breast cancer and needed to choose between two surgical treatments (lumpectomy with radiation or mastectomy). Participants were randomly assigned to view one of four versions of a Web decision aid. Two versions of the decision aid included videos of interviews with patients and physicians or videos of interviews with physicians only. To distinguish between the effect of narratives and the effect of videos, we created two text versions of the Web decision aid by replacing the patient and physician interviews with text transcripts of the videos. Participants could freely browse the Web decision aid until they developed a treatment preference. We recorded participants’ eye movements using the Tobii 1750 eye-tracking system equipped with Tobii Studio software. A priori, we defined 24 areas of interest (AOIs) in the Web decision aid. These AOIs were either separate pages of the Web decision aid or sections within a single page covering different content. Results We used multilevel modeling to examine the effect of narrative presence, narrative format, and their interaction on information search. There was a significant main effect of condition, P=.02; participants viewing decision aids with patient narratives spent more time searching for information than participants viewing the decision aids without narratives. The main effect of format was not significant, P=.10. However, there was a significant condition by format interaction on fixation duration, P<.001. When comparing the two video decision aids, participants viewing the narrative version spent more time searching for information than participants viewing the control version of the decision aid. In contrast, participants viewing the narrative version of the text decision aid spent less time searching for information than participants viewing the control version of the text decision aid. Further, narratives appear to have a global effect on information search; these effects were not limited to specific sections of the decision aid that contained topics discussed in the patient stories. Conclusions The observed increase in fixation duration with video patient testimonials is consistent with the idea that the vividness of the video content could cause greater elaboration of the message, thereby encouraging greater information search. Conversely, because reading requires more effortful processing than watching, reading patient narratives may have decreased participant motivation to engage in more reading in the remaining sections of the Web decision aid. These findings suggest that the format of patient stories may be equally as important as their content in determining their effect on decision making. More research is needed to understand why differences in format result in fundamental differences in information search. PMID:24345424

Authors' response: the primacy of conscious decision making.

PubMed

Shanks, David R; Newell, Ben R

2014-02-01

The target article sought to question the common belief that our decisions are often biased by unconscious influences. While many commentators offer additional support for this perspective, others question our theoretical assumptions, empirical evaluations, and methodological criteria. We rebut in particular the starting assumption that all decision making is unconscious, and that the onus should be on researchers to prove conscious influences. Further evidence is evaluated in relation to the core topics we reviewed (multiple-cue judgment, deliberation without attention, and decisions under uncertainty), as well as priming effects. We reiterate a key conclusion from the target article, namely, that it now seems to be generally accepted that awareness should be operationally defined as reportable knowledge, and that such knowledge can only be evaluated by careful and thorough probing. We call for future research to pay heed to the different ways in which awareness can intervene in decision making (as identified in our lens model analysis) and to employ suitable methodology in the assessment of awareness, including the requirements that awareness assessment must be reliable, relevant, immediate, and sensitive.

Distributed collaborative environments for predictive battlespace awareness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McQuay, William K.

2003-09-01

The past decade has produced significant changes in the conduct of military operations: asymmetric warfare, the reliance on dynamic coalitions, stringent rules of engagement, increased concern about collateral damage, and the need for sustained air operations. Mission commanders need to assimilate a tremendous amount of information, make quick-response decisions, and quantify the effects of those decisions in the face of uncertainty. Situational assessment is crucial in understanding the battlespace. Decision support tools in a distributed collaborative environment offer the capability of decomposing complex multitask processes and distributing them over a dynamic set of execution assets that include modeling, simulations, and analysis tools. Decision support technologies can semi-automate activities, such as analysis and planning, that have a reasonably well-defined process and provide machine-level interfaces to refine the myriad of information that the commander must fused. Collaborative environments provide the framework and integrate models, simulations, and domain specific decision support tools for the sharing and exchanging of data, information, knowledge, and actions. This paper describes ongoing AFRL research efforts in applying distributed collaborative environments to predictive battlespace awareness.

Analysis of Stakeholder-Defined Needs in Northeast U.S. Coastal Communities to Determine Gaps in Research Informing Coastal Resilience Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molino, G. D.; Kenney, M. A.; Sutton-Grier, A.; Penn, K.

2017-12-01

The impacts of climate change on our coastlines are increasing pressure on communities, ecosystems, infrastructure, and state-to-local economies in the northeastern United States (U.S.). As a result of current or imminent risk of acute and chronic hazards, local, state and regional entities have taken steps to identify and address vulnerabilities to climate change. Decisions to increase coastal infrastructure resilience and grey, green, and cultural infrastructure solutions requires physical, natural, and social science that is useful for decision-making and effective science translation mechanisms. Despite the desire to conduct or fund science that meets the needs of communities, there has been no comprehensive analysis to determine stakeholder-defined research needs. To address this gap, this study conducts a stakeholder needs analysis in northeast U.S. coastal communities to determine gaps in information and translation processes supporting coastal resilience planning. Documents were sourced from local, state, and regional organizations in both the public and private sectors, using the northeast region defined by the third National Climate Assessment. Modeled after Dilling et al. (2015), a deductive coding schema was developed that categorized documents using specific search terms such as "Location and condition of infrastructure" and "Proactive planning". A qualitative document analysis was then executed using NVivo to formally identify patterns and themes present in stakeholder surveys, workshop proceedings, and reports. Initial stakeholder priorities centered around incorporation of climate science into planning and decision making regarding vulnerabilities of infrastructure, enhanced emergency planning and response, and communication of key information.

The Assisted Decision-Making (Capacity) Bill 2013: content, commentary, controversy.

PubMed

Kelly, B D

2015-03-01

Ireland's Assisted Decision-Making (Capacity) Bill (2013) aims to reform the law relating to persons who require assistance exercising their decision-making capacity. When finalised, the Bill will replace Ireland's outdated Ward of Court system which has an all-or-nothing approach to capacity; does not adequately define capacity; is poorly responsive to change; makes unwieldy provision for appointing decision-makers; and has insufficient provision for review. To explore the content and implications of the Assisted Decision-Making (Capacity) Bill. Review of the content of the Assisted Decision-Making (Capacity) Bill and related literature. The new Bill includes a presumption of capacity and defines lack of capacity. All interventions must minimise restriction of rights and freedom, and have due regard for "dignity, bodily integrity, privacy and autonomy". The Bill proposes legal frameworks for "assisted decision-making" (where an individual voluntarily appoints someone to assist with specific decisions relating to personal welfare or property and affairs, by, among other measures, assisting the individual to communicate his or her "will and preferences"); "co-decision-making" (where the Circuit Court declares the individual's capacity is reduced but he or she can make specific decisions with a co-decision-maker to share authority); "decision-making representatives" (substitute decision-making); "enduring power of attorney"; and "informal decision-making on personal welfare matters" (without apparent oversight). These measures, if implemented, will shift Ireland's capacity laws away from an approach based on "best interests" to one based on "will and preferences", and increase compliance with the United Nations' Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities.

Rethinking the Cultural Context of Schooling Decisions in Disadvantaged Neighborhoods: From Deviant Subculture to Cultural Heterogeneity

PubMed Central

Harding, David J.

2012-01-01

The literature on neighborhood effects on schooling theorizes that neighborhood cultural context is an important mechanism generating such effects. However, explanations that rely on subcultural theories, such as oppositional culture, have met with considerable criticism on empirical grounds, and no alternative account of the cultural context of disadvantaged neighborhoods has been developed in the education literature. This study develops a new account of the cultural context of schooling decisions in disadvantaged neighborhoods based on the concept of cultural heterogeneity, defined as the presence of a wide array of competing and conflicting cultural models. It applies this concept to neighborhood effects on college enrollment. Using survey data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, this study shows that disadvantaged neighborhoods exhibit greater heterogeneity in college goals and that adolescents in more heterogeneous neighborhoods are less likely to act in concert with the college goals that they articulate. PMID:22879683

Clinical, information and business process modeling to promote development of safe and flexible software.

PubMed

Liaw, Siaw-Teng; Deveny, Elizabeth; Morrison, Iain; Lewis, Bryn

2006-09-01

Using a factorial vignette survey and modeling methodology, we developed clinical and information models - incorporating evidence base, key concepts, relevant terms, decision-making and workflow needed to practice safely and effectively - to guide the development of an integrated rule-based knowledge module to support prescribing decisions in asthma. We identified workflows, decision-making factors, factor use, and clinician information requirements. The Unified Modeling Language (UML) and public domain software and knowledge engineering tools (e.g. Protégé) were used, with the Australian GP Data Model as the starting point for expressing information needs. A Web Services service-oriented architecture approach was adopted within which to express functional needs, and clinical processes and workflows were expressed in the Business Process Execution Language (BPEL). This formal analysis and modeling methodology to define and capture the process and logic of prescribing best practice in a reference implementation is fundamental to tackling deficiencies in prescribing decision support software.

A labor/leisure tradeoff in cognitive control.

PubMed

Kool, Wouter; Botvinick, Matthew

2014-02-01

Daily life frequently offers a choice between activities that are profitable but mentally demanding (cognitive labor) and activities that are undemanding but also unproductive (cognitive leisure). Although such decisions are often implicit, they help determine academic performance, career trajectories, and even health outcomes. Previous research has shed light both on the executive control functions that ultimately define cognitive labor and on a "default mode" of brain function that accompanies cognitive leisure. However, little is known about how labor/leisure decisions are actually made. Here, we identify a central principle guiding such decisions. Results from 3 economic-choice experiments indicate that the motivation underlying cognitive labor/leisure decision making is to strike an optimal balance between income and leisure, as given by a joint utility function. The results reported establish a new connection between microeconomics and research on executive function. They also suggest a new interpretation of so-called ego-depletion effects and a potential new approach to such phenomena as mind wandering and self-control failure.

A labor/leisure tradeoff in cognitive control

PubMed Central

Kool, Wouter; Botvinick, Matthew

2013-01-01

Daily life frequently offers a choice between activities that are profitable but mentally demanding (cognitive labor) and activities that are undemanding but also unproductive (cognitive leisure). Although such decisions are often implicit, they help determine academic performance, career trajectories, and even health outcomes. Previous research has shed light both on the executive control functions that ultimately define cognitive labor and a ‘default mode’ of brain function that accompanies cognitive leisure. However, little is known about how labor/leisure decisions are actually made. Here, we identify a central principle guiding such decisions. Results from three economic-choice experiments indicate that the motivation underlying cognitive labor/leisure decision-making is to strike an optimal balance between income and leisure, as given by a joint utility function. The results reported establish a new connection between microeconomics and research on executive function. They also suggest a new interpretation of so-called ego-depletion effects, and a potential new approach to such phenomena as mind-wandering and self-control failure. PMID:23230991

Functional Genetic Variation in Dopamine Signaling Moderates Prefrontal Cortical Activity During Risky Decision Making.

PubMed

Kohno, Milky; Nurmi, Erika L; Laughlin, Christopher P; Morales, Angelica M; Gail, Emma H; Hellemann, Gerhard S; London, Edythe D

2016-02-01

Brain imaging has revealed links between prefrontal activity during risky decision-making and striatal dopamine receptors. Specifically, striatal dopamine D2-like receptor availability is correlated with risk-taking behavior and sensitivity of prefrontal activation to risk in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART). The extent to which these associations, involving a single neurochemical measure, reflect more general effects of dopaminergic functioning on risky decision making, however, is unknown. Here, 65 healthy participants provided genotypes and performed the BART during functional magnetic resonance imaging. For each participant, dopamine function was assessed using a gene composite score combining known functional variation across five genes involved in dopaminergic signaling: DRD2, DRD3, DRD4, DAT1, and COMT. The gene composite score was negatively related to dorsolateral prefrontal cortical function during risky decision making, and nonlinearly related to earnings on the task. Iterative permutations of all possible allelic variations (7777 allelic combinations) was tested on brain function in an independently defined region of the prefrontal cortex and confirmed empirical validity of the composite score, which yielded stronger association than 95% of all other possible combinations. The gene composite score also accounted for a greater proportion of variability in neural and behavioral measures than the independent effects of each gene variant, indicating that the combined effects of functional dopamine pathway genes can provide a robust assessment, presumably reflecting the cumulative and potentially interactive effects on brain function. Our findings support the view that the links between dopaminergic signaling, prefrontal function, and decision making vary as a function of dopamine signaling capacity.

Relation between Belief and Performance in Perceptual Decision Making

PubMed Central

Drugowitsch, Jan; Moreno-Bote, Rubén; Pouget, Alexandre

2014-01-01

In an uncertain and ambiguous world, effective decision making requires that subjects form and maintain a belief about the correctness of their choices, a process called meta-cognition. Prediction of future outcomes and self-monitoring are only effective if belief closely matches behavioral performance. Equality between belief and performance is also critical for experimentalists to gain insight into the subjects' belief by simply measuring their performance. Assuming that the decision maker holds the correct model of the world, one might indeed expect that belief and performance should go hand in hand. Unfortunately, we show here that this is rarely the case when performance is defined as the percentage of correct responses for a fixed stimulus, a standard definition in psychophysics. In this case, belief equals performance only for a very narrow family of tasks, whereas in others they will only be very weakly correlated. As we will see it is possible to restore this equality in specific circumstances but this remedy is only effective for a decision-maker, not for an experimenter. We furthermore show that belief and performance do not match when conditioned on task difficulty – as is common practice when plotting the psychometric curve – highlighting common pitfalls in previous neuroscience work. Finally, we demonstrate that miscalibration and the hard-easy effect observed in humans' and other animals' certainty judgments could be explained by a mismatch between the experimenter's and decision maker's expected distribution of task difficulties. These results have important implications for experimental design and are of relevance for theories that aim to unravel the nature of meta-cognition. PMID:24816801

Relation between belief and performance in perceptual decision making.

PubMed

Drugowitsch, Jan; Moreno-Bote, Rubén; Pouget, Alexandre

2014-01-01

In an uncertain and ambiguous world, effective decision making requires that subjects form and maintain a belief about the correctness of their choices, a process called meta-cognition. Prediction of future outcomes and self-monitoring are only effective if belief closely matches behavioral performance. Equality between belief and performance is also critical for experimentalists to gain insight into the subjects' belief by simply measuring their performance. Assuming that the decision maker holds the correct model of the world, one might indeed expect that belief and performance should go hand in hand. Unfortunately, we show here that this is rarely the case when performance is defined as the percentage of correct responses for a fixed stimulus, a standard definition in psychophysics. In this case, belief equals performance only for a very narrow family of tasks, whereas in others they will only be very weakly correlated. As we will see it is possible to restore this equality in specific circumstances but this remedy is only effective for a decision-maker, not for an experimenter. We furthermore show that belief and performance do not match when conditioned on task difficulty--as is common practice when plotting the psychometric curve--highlighting common pitfalls in previous neuroscience work. Finally, we demonstrate that miscalibration and the hard-easy effect observed in humans' and other animals' certainty judgments could be explained by a mismatch between the experimenter's and decision maker's expected distribution of task difficulties. These results have important implications for experimental design and are of relevance for theories that aim to unravel the nature of meta-cognition.

Navigating Monogamy: Nonapeptide Sensitivity in a Memory Neural Circuit May Shape Social Behavior and Mating Decisions

PubMed Central

Ophir, Alexander G.

2017-01-01

The role of memory in mating systems is often neglected despite the fact that most mating systems are defined in part by how animals use space. Monogamy, for example, is usually characterized by affiliative (e.g., pairbonding) and defensive (e.g., mate guarding) behaviors, but a high degree of spatial overlap in home range use is the easiest defining feature of monogamous animals in the wild. The nonapeptides vasopressin and oxytocin have been the focus of much attention for their importance in modulating social behavior, however this work has largely overshadowed their roles in learning and memory. To date, the understanding of memory systems and mechanisms governing social behavior have progressed relatively independently. Bridging these two areas will provide a deeper appreciation for understanding behavior, and in particular the mechanisms that mediate reproductive decision-making. Here, I argue that the ability to mate effectively as monogamous individuals is linked to the ability to track conspecifics in space. I discuss the connectivity across some well-known social and spatial memory nuclei, and propose that the nonapeptide receptors within these structures form a putative “socio-spatial memory neural circuit.” This purported circuit may function to integrate social and spatial information to shape mating decisions in a context-dependent fashion. The lateral septum and/or the nucleus accumbens, and neuromodulation therein, may act as an intermediary to relate socio-spatial information with social behavior. Identifying mechanisms responsible for relating information about the social world with mechanisms mediating mating tactics is crucial to fully appreciate the suite of factors driving reproductive decisions and social decision-making. PMID:28744194

Recent advances in applying decision science to managing national forests

Treesearch

Bruce G. Marcot; Matthew P. Thompson; Michael C. Runge; Frank R. Thompson; Steven McNulty; David Cleaves; Monica Tomosy; Larry A. Fisher; Andrew Bliss

2012-01-01

Management of federal public forests to meet sustainability goals and multiple use regulations is an immense challenge. To succeed, we suggest use of formal decision science procedures and tools in the context of structured decision making (SDM). SDM entails four stages: problem structuring (framing the problem and defining objectives and evaluation criteria), problem...

Feminism and Psychological Autonomy: A Study in Decision-Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sacks, Susan R.; Eisenstein, Hester

Women seeking to realize the feminist goal of autonomy, defined as self-interested decision-making, encounter conflict and anxiety. This study reports a group experience, using life-space drawings and force-field analyses to reduce anxiety and foster autonomous decision-making. Of the 15 women participants in the year-long study, 100% reported at…

An Optimization Model for the Allocation of University Based Merit Aid

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sugrue, Paul K.

2010-01-01

The allocation of merit-based financial aid during the college admissions process presents postsecondary institutions with complex and financially expensive decisions. This article describes the application of linear programming as a decision tool in merit based financial aid decisions at a medium size private university. The objective defined for…

Thresholds for decision-making: informing the cost-effectiveness and affordability of rotavirus vaccines in Malaysia.

PubMed

Loganathan, Tharani; Ng, Chiu-Wan; Lee, Way-Seah; Hutubessy, Raymond C W; Verguet, Stéphane; Jit, Mark

2018-03-01

Cost-effectiveness thresholds (CETs) based on the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health (CMH) are extensively used in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) lacking locally defined CETs. These thresholds were originally intended for global and regional prioritization, and do not reflect local context or affordability at the national level, so their value for informing resource allocation decisions has been questioned. Using these thresholds, rotavirus vaccines are widely regarded as cost-effective interventions in LMICs. However, high vaccine prices remain a barrier towards vaccine introduction. This study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness, affordability and threshold price of universal rotavirus vaccination at various CETs in Malaysia. Cost-effectiveness of Rotarix and RotaTeq were evaluated using a multi-cohort model. Pan American Health Organization Revolving Fund's vaccine prices were used as tender price, while the recommended retail price for Malaysia was used as market price. We estimate threshold prices defined as prices at which vaccination becomes cost-effective, at various CETs reflecting economic theories of human capital, societal willingness-to-pay and marginal productivity. A budget impact analysis compared programmatic costs with the healthcare budget. At tender prices, both vaccines were cost-saving. At market prices, cost-effectiveness differed with thresholds used. At market price, using 'CMH thresholds', Rotarix programmes were cost-effective and RotaTeq were not cost-effective from the healthcare provider's perspective, while both vaccines were cost-effective from the societal perspective. Using other CETs, both vaccines were not cost-effective at market price, from the healthcare provider's and societal perspectives. At tender and cost-effective prices, rotavirus vaccination cost ∼1 and 3% of the public health budget, respectively. Using locally defined thresholds, rotavirus vaccination is cost-effective at vaccine prices in line with international tenders, but not at market prices. Thresholds representing marginal productivity are likely to be lower than those reflecting human capital and individual preference measures, and may be useful in determining affordable vaccine prices. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Regret and the rationality of choices

PubMed Central

Bourgeois-Gironde, Sacha

2010-01-01

Regret helps to optimize decision behaviour. It can be defined as a rational emotion. Several recent neurobiological studies have confirmed the interface between emotion and cognition at which regret is located and documented its role in decision behaviour. These data give credibility to the incorporation of regret in decision theory that had been proposed by economists in the 1980s. However, finer distinctions are required in order to get a better grasp of how regret and behaviour influence each other. Regret can be defined as a predictive error signal but this signal does not necessarily transpose into a decision-weight influencing behaviour. Clinical studies on several types of patients show that the processing of an error signal and its influence on subsequent behaviour can be dissociated. We propose a general understanding of how regret and decision-making are connected in terms of regret being modulated by rational antecedents of choice. Regret and the modification of behaviour on its basis will depend on the criteria of rationality involved in decision-making. We indicate current and prospective lines of research in order to refine our views on how regret contributes to optimal decision-making. PMID:20026463

Defined contribution: a part of our future.

PubMed Central

Baugh, Reginald F.

2003-01-01

Rising employer health care costs and consumer backlash against managed care are trends fostering the development of defined contribution plans. Defined contribution plans limit employer responsibility to a fixed financial contribution rather than a benefit program and dramatically increase consumer responsibility for health care decision making. Possible outcomes of widespread adoption of defined contribution plans are presented. PMID:12934869

Application of the principles of evidence-based practice in decision making among senior management in Nova Scotia's addiction services agencies.

PubMed

Murphy, Matthew; MacCarthy, M Jayne; McAllister, Lynda; Gilbert, Robert

2014-12-05

Competency profiles for occupational clusters within Canada's substance abuse workforce (SAW) define the need for skill and knowledge in evidence-based practice (EBP) across all its members. Members of the Senior Management occupational cluster hold ultimate responsibility for decisions made within addiction services agencies and therefore must possess the highest level of proficiency in EBP. The objective of this study was to assess the knowledge of the principles of EBP, and use of the components of the evidence-based decision making (EBDM) process in members of this occupational cluster from selected addiction services agencies in Nova Scotia. A convenience sampling method was used to recruit participants from addiction services agencies. Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted with eighteen Senior Management. The interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim and checked by the participants. Interview transcripts were coded and analyzed for themes using content analysis and assisted by qualitative data analysis software (NVivo 9.0). Data analysis revealed four main themes: 1) Senior Management believe that addictions services agencies are evidence-based; 2) Consensus-based decision making is the norm; 3) Senior Management understand the principles of EBP and; 4) Senior Management do not themselves use all components of the EBDM process when making decisions, oftentimes delegating components of this process to decision support staff. Senior Management possess an understanding of the principles of EBP, however, when making decisions they often delegate components of the EBDM process to decision support staff. Decision support staff are not defined as an occupational cluster in Canada's SAW and have not been ascribed a competency profile. As such, there is no guarantee that this group possesses competency in EBDM. There is a need to advocate for the development of a defined occupational cluster and associated competency profile for this critical group.

Dignity and cost-effectiveness: analysing the responsibility for decisions in medical ethics.

PubMed Central

Robertson, G S

1984-01-01

In the operation of a health care system, defining the limits of medical care is the joint responsibility of many parties including clinicians, patients, philosophers and politicians. It is suggested that changes in the potential for prolonging life make it necessary to give doctors guidance which may have to incorporate certain features of utilitarianism, individualism and patient-autonomy. PMID:6502644

Drawing the line on genetic intervention in humans.

PubMed Central

Kaura, D R

1996-01-01

Because the science of genetics can have such profound effects on medicine and mankind, society must define the characteristics of a moral framework within which to make decisions about genetic issues. University of Manitoba medical student Deepak Kaura, who claimed third prize in CMAJ's 1995 Logie Medical Ethics Essay Contest, examines the ethics of genetic intervention in humans. Images p928-a PMID:8634976

Recursive Rational Choice.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-11-01

that a decision entity acted as though it were making rational choices among a set of alternatives, as a not unreason- able paradigm of human behavior...Gottinger l / , which, like Kramer’s approach, consider the item of rationality in decision making for social decision rules as representable by finite...1974] in the consideration of whether or not a decisive choice function that is regular rational in the sense of Richter [19711 when defined on subsets

Systematic assessment of benefits and risks: study protocol for a multi-criteria decision analysis using the Analytic Hierarchy Process for comparative effectiveness research

PubMed Central

Singh, Sonal

2013-01-01

Background: Regulatory decision-making involves assessment of risks and benefits of medications at the time of approval or when relevant safety concerns arise with a medication. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) facilitates decision-making in complex situations involving tradeoffs by considering risks and benefits of alternatives. The AHP allows a more structured method of synthesizing and understanding evidence in the context of importance assigned to outcomes. Our objective is to evaluate the use of an AHP in a simulated committee setting selecting oral medications for type 2 diabetes.  Methods: This study protocol describes the AHP in five sequential steps using a small group of diabetes experts representing various clinical disciplines. The first step will involve defining the goal of the decision and developing the AHP model. In the next step, we will collect information about how well alternatives are expected to fulfill the decision criteria. In the third step, we will compare the ability of the alternatives to fulfill the criteria and judge the importance of eight criteria relative to the decision goal of the optimal medication choice for type 2 diabetes. We will use pairwise comparisons to sequentially compare the pairs of alternative options regarding their ability to fulfill the criteria. In the fourth step, the scales created in the third step will be combined to create a summary score indicating how well the alternatives met the decision goal. The resulting scores will be expressed as percentages and will indicate the alternative medications' relative abilities to fulfill the decision goal. The fifth step will consist of sensitivity analyses to explore the effects of changing the estimates. We will also conduct a cognitive interview and process evaluation.  Discussion: Multi-criteria decision analysis using the AHP will aid, support and enhance the ability of decision makers to make evidence-based informed decisions consistent with their values and preferences. PMID:24555077

Systematic assessment of benefits and risks: study protocol for a multi-criteria decision analysis using the Analytic Hierarchy Process for comparative effectiveness research.

PubMed

Maruthur, Nisa M; Joy, Susan; Dolan, James; Segal, Jodi B; Shihab, Hasan M; Singh, Sonal

2013-01-01

Regulatory decision-making involves assessment of risks and benefits of medications at the time of approval or when relevant safety concerns arise with a medication. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) facilitates decision-making in complex situations involving tradeoffs by considering risks and benefits of alternatives. The AHP allows a more structured method of synthesizing and understanding evidence in the context of importance assigned to outcomes. Our objective is to evaluate the use of an AHP in a simulated committee setting selecting oral medications for type 2 diabetes.  This study protocol describes the AHP in five sequential steps using a small group of diabetes experts representing various clinical disciplines. The first step will involve defining the goal of the decision and developing the AHP model. In the next step, we will collect information about how well alternatives are expected to fulfill the decision criteria. In the third step, we will compare the ability of the alternatives to fulfill the criteria and judge the importance of eight criteria relative to the decision goal of the optimal medication choice for type 2 diabetes. We will use pairwise comparisons to sequentially compare the pairs of alternative options regarding their ability to fulfill the criteria. In the fourth step, the scales created in the third step will be combined to create a summary score indicating how well the alternatives met the decision goal. The resulting scores will be expressed as percentages and will indicate the alternative medications' relative abilities to fulfill the decision goal. The fifth step will consist of sensitivity analyses to explore the effects of changing the estimates. We will also conduct a cognitive interview and process evaluation.  Multi-criteria decision analysis using the AHP will aid, support and enhance the ability of decision makers to make evidence-based informed decisions consistent with their values and preferences.

Shifting sands - from descriptions to solutions.

PubMed

Armstrong, R; Pettman, T L; Waters, E

2014-06-01

Public health practitioners and policymakers value research evidence as one of many resources to use in evidence-informed decision making (EIDM) for public health. However, both researchers and decision-makers have described persistent barriers and facilitators involved in using research evidence for public health practice and policy. This is likely to affect the extent to which research evidence is influential or useful in decisions. Numerous taxonomies, typologies and frameworks are available to guide action in EIDM, but their application in practice is relatively unknown. The Public Health Evidence group based in Australia, which incorporates The Cochrane Collaboration's Public Health Review Group, have adapted a number of conceptualizations of research use and types of evidence into a practical typology that defines and illustrates three main types of evidence used in evidence-informed public health: data (Type 1), intervention effectiveness (Type 2) and implementation evidence (Type 3). The authors have actively used this typology within our primary research, evidence synthesis, workforce development and stakeholder engagement strategies, which has enabled practical application of these concepts. To test the relevance of the typology in practice, relevant findings from our applied research and evaluation (including two exploratory studies of evidence use in decision-making and evaluations of the use and impact of systematic reviews among end-users) were triangulated. The typology has been useful in stakeholder interactions when defining evidence, and identifying processes for EIDM. There was a preference for defining evidence as descriptive evidence (data) rather than impact evidence and implementation evidence. Practitioners were confident and competent at generating and using data and community views descriptively for priority setting (describing the problem). However, finding and using impact and implementation evidence appropriate for strategy development (effective solutions) was often described as a more daunting task. As a result, there was low awareness of, and competence with, Types 2 and 3 evidence. Organizational processes for using these types of evidence were almost non-existent. Applying this typology with stakeholders has allowed us to observe that it; (1) has been useful in conceptualizing useful evidence for public health, which has guided our work (2) has been useful in stakeholder interactions to introduce evidence, its definition and what it means to be 'evidence-informed' and (3) has identified 'faults' in the EIDM approach. The typology includes examples of common questions in public health, and suggestions of the types of evidence that may be useful to answer those questions. Findings that test the use of the typology have been synthesized. These have demonstrated inconsistencies in defining and applying evidence, and low awareness about what types of evidence are crucial to ensure that interventions are effective and minimize harm. Based upon these findings, the authors would argue that current investment in type 1 evidence (e.g. data repositories) shifts to make way for KT strategies, which facilitate the uptake of type 2 and 3 evidence (interventions and implementation guidance). Building a shared understanding of the types of evidence and their importance in public health decision-making is crucial if we wish to build a system that supports EIDM and results in effective interventions being delivered. There are a number of 'faults' in the system which the authors have illuminated through understanding the individual and organizational realities of evidence use. These faults could be addressed through KT strategies with the public health workforce, and development of organizational cultures and the broader system. Copyright © 2014 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perspective: Uses and misuses of thresholds in diagnostic decision making.

PubMed

Warner, Jeremy L; Najarian, Robert M; Tierney, Lawrence M

2010-03-01

The concept of thresholds plays a vital role in decisions involving the initiation, continuation, and completion of diagnostic testing. Much research has focused on the development of explicit thresholds, in the form of practice guidelines and decision analyses. However, these tools are used infrequently; most medical decisions are made at the bedside, using implicit thresholds. Study of these thresholds can lead to a deeper understanding of clinical decision making. The authors examine some factors constituting individual clinicians' implicit thresholds. They propose a model for static thresholds using the concept of situational gravity to explain why some thresholds are high, and some low. Next, they consider the hypothetical effects of incorrect placement of thresholds (miscalibration) and changes to thresholds during diagnosis (manipulation). They demonstrate these concepts using common clinical scenarios. Through analysis of miscalibration of thresholds, the authors demonstrate some common maladaptive clinical behaviors, which are nevertheless internally consistent. They then explain how manipulation of thresholds gives rise to common cognitive heuristics including premature closure and anchoring. They also discuss the case where no threshold has been exceeded despite exhaustive collection of data, which commonly leads to application of the availability or representativeness heuristics. Awareness of implicit thresholds allows for a more effective understanding of the processes of medical decision making and, possibly, to the avoidance of detrimental heuristics and their associated medical errors. Research toward accurately defining these thresholds for individual physicians and toward determining their dynamic properties during the diagnostic process may yield valuable insights.

Interventions to enhance informed choices among invitees of screening programmes-a systematic review.

PubMed

van Agt, Heleen M E; Korfage, Ida J; Essink-Bot, Marie-Louise

2014-10-01

Informed decision making about participation has become an explicit purpose in invitations for screening programmes in western countries. An informed choice is commonly defined as based on: (i) adequate levels of knowledge of the screening and (ii) agreement between the invitee's values towards own screening participation and actual (intention to) participation. We systematically reviewed published studies that empirically evaluated the effects of interventions aiming at enhancing informed decision making in screening programmes targeted at the general population. We focused on prenatal screening and neonatal screening for diseases of the foetus/new-born and screening for breast cancer, cervical cancer and colorectal cancer. The Medline, EMBASE and Cochrane databases were searched for studies published till April 2012, using the terms 'informed choice', 'decision making' and 'mass screening' separately and in combination and terms referring to the specific screening programmes. Of the 2238 titles identified, 15 studies were included, which evaluated decision aids (DAs), information leaflets, film, video, counselling and a specific screening visit for informed decision making in prenatal screening, breast and colorectal cancer screening. Most of the included studies evaluated DAs and showed improved knowledge and informed decision making. Due to the limited number of studies the results could not be synthesized. The empirical evidence regarding interventions to improve informed decision making in screening is limited. It is unknown which strategies to enhance informed decision making are most effective, although DAs are promising. Systematic development of interventions to enhance informed choices in screening deserves priority, especially in disadvantaged groups. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Playing the Fertility Game at Work: An Equilibrium Model of Peer Effects.

PubMed

Ciliberto, Federico; Miller, Amalia R; Nielsen, Helena Skyt; Simonsen, Marianne

2016-08-01

We study workplace peer effects in fertility decisions using a game theory model of strategic interactions among coworkers that allows for multiple equilibria. Using register-based data on fertile-aged women working in medium sized establishments in Denmark, we uncover negative average peer effects. Allowing for heterogeneous effects by worker type, we find that positive effects dominate across worker types defined by age or education. Negative effects dominate within age groups and among low-education types. Policy simulations show that these estimated effects make the distribution of where women work an important consideration, beyond simply if they work, in predicting population fertility.

Playing the Fertility Game at Work: An Equilibrium Model of Peer Effects

PubMed Central

Ciliberto, Federico; Miller, Amalia R.; Nielsen, Helena Skyt; Simonsen, Marianne

2016-01-01

We study workplace peer effects in fertility decisions using a game theory model of strategic interactions among coworkers that allows for multiple equilibria. Using register-based data on fertile-aged women working in medium sized establishments in Denmark, we uncover negative average peer effects. Allowing for heterogeneous effects by worker type, we find that positive effects dominate across worker types defined by age or education. Negative effects dominate within age groups and among low-education types. Policy simulations show that these estimated effects make the distribution of where women work an important consideration, beyond simply if they work, in predicting population fertility. PMID:27605729

Defining Elements of Value in Health Care-A Health Economics Approach: An ISPOR Special Task Force Report [3].

PubMed

Lakdawalla, Darius N; Doshi, Jalpa A; Garrison, Louis P; Phelps, Charles E; Basu, Anirban; Danzon, Patricia M

2018-02-01

The third section of our Special Task Force report identifies and defines a series of elements that warrant consideration in value assessments of medical technologies. We aim to broaden the view of what constitutes value in health care and to spur new research on incorporating additional elements of value into cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). Twelve potential elements of value are considered. Four of them-quality-adjusted life-years, net costs, productivity, and adherence-improving factors-are conventionally included or considered in value assessments. Eight others, which would be more novel in economic assessments, are defined and discussed: reduction in uncertainty, fear of contagion, insurance value, severity of disease, value of hope, real option value, equity, and scientific spillovers. Most of these are theoretically well understood and available for inclusion in value assessments. The two exceptions are equity and scientific spillover effects, which require more theoretical development and consensus. A number of regulatory authorities around the globe have shown interest in some of these novel elements. Augmenting CEA to consider these additional elements would result in a more comprehensive CEA in line with the "impact inventory" of the Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine. Possible approaches for valuation and inclusion of these elements include integrating them as part of a net monetary benefit calculation, including elements as attributes in health state descriptions, or using them as criteria in a multicriteria decision analysis. Further research is needed on how best to measure and include them in decision making. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A translation table for patient-centered comparative effectiveness research: guidance to improve the value of research for clinical and health policy decision-making.

PubMed

Tunis, Sean R; Messner, Donna A; Mohr, Penny; Gliklich, Richard E; Dubois, Robert W

2012-05-01

This article provides background and context for a series of papers stemming from a collaborative effort by Outcome Sciences, Inc., the National Pharmaceutical Council and the Center for Medical Technology Policy to use a stakeholder-driven process to develop a decision tool to select appropriate methods for comparative effectiveness research. The perceived need and origins of the 'translation table' concept for method selection are described and the legislative history and role of the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute are reviewed. The article concludes by stressing the significance of this effort for future health services and clinical research, and the importance of consulting end-users--patients, providers, payers and policy-makers--in the process of defining research questions and approaches to them.

[The role of Health Impact Assessment (HIA) in the decision-making].

PubMed

Signorelli, Carlo; Riccò, Matteo; Odone, Anna

2011-01-01

The review describes the evolution of the environmental policies in Italy underlying current delays and discords between the environment and its effects on human health. It also tries to define the major barriers to the introduction of the health impact assessment (HIA) in government policy-making process in Italy; the lack of regulations and the lack of methods to perform an HIA are the main reasons for its limited use. Epidemiology is a fundamental tool to produce effective health impact assessments along with a deep knowledge of medicine, environmental hygiene and risk communication. In conclusion, should the Italian scientific community agreed on a common and constructive approach avoiding possible exploitations and conflicts of interest, HIA could be a valuable method for helping to develop environmental policies and assisting policy-makers in important decisions.

Development and pilot testing of a decision aid for surrogates of patients with prolonged mechanical ventilation

PubMed Central

Cox, Christopher E.; Lewis, Carmen L.; Hanson, Laura C.; Hough, Catherine L.; Kahn, Jeremy M.; White, Douglas B.; Song, Mi-Kyung; Tulsky, James A.; Carson, Shannon S.

2013-01-01

Objective Shared decision making is inadequate in intensive care units (ICUs). Decision aids can improve decision making quality, though their role in an ICU setting is unclear. We aimed to develop and pilot test a decision aid for shared decision makers of patients undergoing prolonged mechanical ventilation. Setting ICUs at three medical centers. Subjects 53 surrogate decision makers and 58 physicians. Design and interventions We developed the decision aid using defined methodological guidelines. After an iterative revision process, formative cognitive testing was performed among surrogate-physician dyads. Next, we compared the decision aid to usual care control in a prospective, before/after design study. Measurements and main results Primary outcomes were physician-surrogate discordance for expected patient survival, comprehension of relevant medical information, and the quality of communication. Compared to control, the intervention group had lower surrogate-physician discordance (7 [10] vs 43 [21]), greater comprehension (11.4 [0.7] vs 6.1 [3.7]), and improved quality of communication (8.7 [1.3] vs 8.4 [1.3]) (all p<0.05) post-intervention. Hospital costs were lower in the intervention group ($110,609 vs $178,618; p=0.044); mortality did not differ by group (38% vs 50%, p=0.95). 94% of surrogates and 100% of physicians reported that the decision aid was useful in decision making. Conclusion We developed a prolonged mechanical ventilation decision aid that is feasible, acceptable, and associated with both improved decision making quality and less resource utilization. Further evaluation using a randomized controlled trial design is needed to evaluate the decision aid's effect on long-term patient and surrogate outcomes. PMID:22635048

Value-Based Reimbursement: Impact of Curtailing Physician Autonomy in Medical Decision Making.

PubMed

Gupta, Dipti; Karst, Ingolf; Mendelson, Ellen B

2016-02-01

In this article, we define value in the context of reimbursement and explore the effect of shifting reimbursement paradigms on the decision-making autonomy of a women's imaging radiologist. The current metrics used for value-based reimbursement such as report turnaround time are surrogate measures that do not measure value directly. The true measure of a physician's value in medicine is accomplishment of better health outcomes, which, in breast imaging, are best achieved with a physician-patient relationship. Complying with evidence-based medicine, which includes data-driven best clinical practices, a physician's clinical expertise, and the patient's values, will improve our science and preserve the art of medicine.

Prolegomenon to the Analysis of Nondecision Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mann, Dale

Non-decision-making is about how things come about in the absence of conscious choice. It is defined as a decision that stops a challenge to existing values or attempts to prevent something from reaching the stage of formal or overt decision-making. The common denominator is the suppression of wider participation in the formation of public policy.…

The Relationship between Ethical Decision Making and Ethical Reasoning in Information Technology Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woodward, Belle; Davis, Diane C.; Hodis, Flaviu A.

2007-01-01

This study examined undergraduate information technology (IT) students' (N = 122) level of ethical reasoning and decision making at a Midwestern university. The purpose was to determine whether IT students' level of ethical reasoning provided information about the degree of their ethical decision making. The Defining Issues Test-2 (DIT-2) was used…

Health Insurance Literacy: How People Understand and Make Health Insurance Purchase Decisions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vardell, Emily Johanna

2017-01-01

The concept of health insurance literacy, which can be defined as "the extent to which consumers can make informed purchase and use decisions" (Kim, Braun, & Williams, 2013, p. 3), has only recently become a focus of health literacy research. Though employees have been making health insurance decisions for many years, the Affordable…

Sociology at Washington University in St. Louis: History and Reflections, 1906-1989.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pittman, David J.; Boden, Deirdre

1990-01-01

Traces the history of sociology at Washington University (Missouri) from 1906 to 1989 in relation to the decision to abolish the department. Maintains that this decision began in 1968. Defines the contours of the sociology department, including a discussion of prominent scholars, contending that the decision will harm the discipline in the long…

Evaluation: The Process of Stimulating, Aiding, and Abetting Insightful Action.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guba, Egon G.; Stufflebeam, Daniel L.

Part 1 of this monograph discusses the status of educational evaluation and describes several problems in carrying out such evaluation: (1) defining the educational setting, (2) defining decision types, (3) designing educational evaluation, (4) designing evaluation systems, and (5) defining criteria for judging evaluation. Part 2 proposes an…

On the usage of ultrasound computational models for decision making under ambiguity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dib, Gerges; Sexton, Samuel; Prowant, Matthew; Crawford, Susan; Diaz, Aaron

2018-04-01

Computer modeling and simulation is becoming pervasive within the non-destructive evaluation (NDE) industry as a convenient tool for designing and assessing inspection techniques. This raises a pressing need for developing quantitative techniques for demonstrating the validity and applicability of the computational models. Computational models provide deterministic results based on deterministic and well-defined input, or stochastic results based on inputs defined by probability distributions. However, computational models cannot account for the effects of personnel, procedures, and equipment, resulting in ambiguity about the efficacy of inspections based on guidance from computational models only. In addition, ambiguity arises when model inputs, such as the representation of realistic cracks, cannot be defined deterministically, probabilistically, or by intervals. In this work, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory demonstrates the ability of computational models to represent field measurements under known variabilities, and quantify the differences using maximum amplitude and power spectrum density metrics. Sensitivity studies are also conducted to quantify the effects of different input parameters on the simulation results.

An informal paper on large-scale dynamic systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ho, Y. C.

1975-01-01

Large scale systems are defined as systems requiring more than one decision maker to control the system. Decentralized control and decomposition are discussed for large scale dynamic systems. Information and many-person decision problems are analyzed.

Shared Decision Making in ICUs: An American College of Critical Care Medicine and American Thoracic Society Policy Statement.

PubMed

Kon, Alexander A; Davidson, Judy E; Morrison, Wynne; Danis, Marion; White, Douglas B

2016-01-01

Shared decision making is endorsed by critical care organizations; however, there remains confusion about what shared decision making is, when it should be used, and approaches to promote partnerships in treatment decisions. The purpose of this statement is to define shared decision making, recommend when shared decision making should be used, identify the range of ethically acceptable decision-making models, and present important communication skills. The American College of Critical Care Medicine and American Thoracic Society Ethics Committees reviewed empirical research and normative analyses published in peer-reviewed journals to generate recommendations. Recommendations approved by consensus of the full Ethics Committees of American College of Critical Care Medicine and American Thoracic Society were included in the statement. Six recommendations were endorsed: 1) DEFINITION: Shared decision making is a collaborative process that allows patients, or their surrogates, and clinicians to make healthcare decisions together, taking into account the best scientific evidence available, as well as the patient's values, goals, and preferences. 2) Clinicians should engage in a shared decision making process to define overall goals of care (including decisions regarding limiting or withdrawing life-prolonging interventions) and when making major treatment decisions that may be affected by personal values, goals, and preferences. 3) Clinicians should use as their "default" approach a shared decision making process that includes three main elements: information exchange, deliberation, and making a treatment decision. 4) A wide range of decision-making approaches are ethically supportable, including patient- or surrogate-directed and clinician-directed models. Clinicians should tailor the decision-making process based on the preferences of the patient or surrogate. 5) Clinicians should be trained in communication skills. 6) Research is needed to evaluate decision-making strategies. Patient and surrogate preferences for decision-making roles regarding value-laden choices range from preferring to exercise significant authority to ceding such authority to providers. Clinicians should adapt the decision-making model to the needs and preferences of the patient or surrogate.

Using Decision-Analytic Modeling to Isolate Interventions That Are Feasible, Efficient and Optimal: An Application from the Norwegian Cervical Cancer Screening Program.

PubMed

Pedersen, Kine; Sørbye, Sveinung Wergeland; Burger, Emily Annika; Lönnberg, Stefan; Kristiansen, Ivar Sønbø

2015-12-01

Decision makers often need to simultaneously consider multiple criteria or outcomes when deciding whether to adopt new health interventions. Using decision analysis within the context of cervical cancer screening in Norway, we aimed to aid decision makers in identifying a subset of relevant strategies that are simultaneously efficient, feasible, and optimal. We developed an age-stratified probabilistic decision tree model following a cohort of women attending primary screening through one screening round. We enumerated detected precancers (i.e., cervical intraepithelial neoplasia of grade 2 or more severe (CIN2+)), colposcopies performed, and monetary costs associated with 10 alternative triage algorithms for women with abnormal cytology results. As efficiency metrics, we calculated incremental cost-effectiveness, and harm-benefit, ratios, defined as the additional costs, or the additional number of colposcopies, per additional CIN2+ detected. We estimated capacity requirements and uncertainty surrounding which strategy is optimal according to the decision rule, involving willingness to pay (monetary or resources consumed per added benefit). For ages 25 to 33 years, we eliminated four strategies that did not fall on either efficiency frontier, while one strategy was efficient with respect to both efficiency metrics. Compared with current practice in Norway, two strategies detected more precancers at lower monetary costs, but some required more colposcopies. Similar results were found for women aged 34 to 69 years. Improving the effectiveness and efficiency of cervical cancer screening may necessitate additional resources. Although efficient and feasible, both society and individuals must specify their willingness to accept the additional resources and perceived harms required to increase effectiveness before a strategy can be considered optimal. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Reimbursement of biosimilars in Poland: is there a link to health technology assessment?

PubMed

Neumann, Dominika; Jabłecka, Anna

2016-12-01

Due to their complex structures, biosimilars are not generics. The differences between them are considered during market authorization processes but remain unclear during reimbursement decision-making. We analyzed the reimbursement of biopharmaceuticals in Poland with an emphasis on biosimilars and compared the health technology assessment (HTA) process with that defined in other countries. Recommendations provided by the Polish HTA organization and those in other countries were included as source documents. The period of interest covered January 2012 to December 2014. The reimbursement process for biosimilars in Poland is the same as that for generics. In contrast to other countries, a HTA is not involved in decision-making in Poland. The short administrative procedure for reimbursement of biosimilars in Poland accelerates the decision-making process; therefore, therapies can be made available to patients more quickly. However, this procedure can potentially lead to underestimation of aspects concerning the effectiveness and safety of biosimilars.

Three-dimensional object recognition using similar triangles and decision trees

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spirkovska, Lilly

1993-01-01

A system, TRIDEC, that is capable of distinguishing between a set of objects despite changes in the objects' positions in the input field, their size, or their rotational orientation in 3D space is described. TRIDEC combines very simple yet effective features with the classification capabilities of inductive decision tree methods. The feature vector is a list of all similar triangles defined by connecting all combinations of three pixels in a coarse coded 127 x 127 pixel input field. The classification is accomplished by building a decision tree using the information provided from a limited number of translated, scaled, and rotated samples. Simulation results are presented which show that TRIDEC achieves 94 percent recognition accuracy in the 2D invariant object recognition domain and 98 percent recognition accuracy in the 3D invariant object recognition domain after training on only a small sample of transformed views of the objects.

Exploring Data-Driven Decision-Making in the Field: How Faculty Use Data and Other Forms of Information to Guide Instructional Decision-Making. WCER Working Paper No. 2014-3

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hora, Matthew T.; Bouwma-Gearhart, Jana; Park, Hyoung Joon

2014-01-01

A defining characteristic of current U.S. educational policy is the use of data to inform decisions about resource allocation, teacher hiring, and curriculum and instruction. Perhaps the biggest challenge to data-driven decision making (DDDM) is that data use alone does not automatically result in improved teaching and learning. Research indicates…

Enriching the national map database for multi-scale use: Introducing the visibilityfilter attribution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stauffer, Andrew J.; Webinger, Seth; Roche, Brittany

2016-01-01

The US Geological Survey’s (USGS) National Geospatial Technical Operations Center is prototyping and evaluating the ability to filter data through a range of scales using 1:24,000-scale The National Map (TNM) datasets as the source. A “VisibilityFilter” attribute is under evaluation that can be added to all TNM vector data themes and will permit filtering of data to eight target scales between 1:24,000 and 1:5,000,000, thus defining each feature’s smallest applicable scale-of-use. For a prototype implementation, map specifications for 1:100,000- and 1:250,000-scale USGS Topographic Map Series are being utilized to define feature content appropriate at fixed mapping scales to guide generalization decisions that are documented in a ScaleMaster diagram. This paper defines the VisibilityFilter attribute, the generalization decisions made for each TNM data theme, and how these decisions are embedded into the data to support efficient data filtering.

Zatu No. AN VII 0013/FP/PRES, 16 November 1989.

PubMed

1989-01-01

1989 Burkina Faso legislation covers marriage, divorce, marital property, relations between parents and children, filtration, and adoption. The legislation begins with persons and the enjoyment of civil rights, and continues with the family, defining, under general principles, the family as founded on marriage and as the basic nucleus of society. The legislation prohibits forced marriages and acts preventing and opposing marriage for reasons of race, caste, color, or religion, and it provides equality of rights and duties between spouses. It further outlines the topic of marriage, its formation, the option of polygamy, objections to marriage, the celebration of marriage, the proof of marriage, the annulment of a marriage, the effects of marriage on decision making, and the monetary effects of marriage. The legislation reviews the marriage contract and matrimonial regimes: community property in the absence of a marriage contract or a declaration of separation of property; separation of property where polygamy has been chosen; liabilities of the community, administration of the community, and dissolution of the community are also detailed. It defines what is considered conventional community property furniture and other acquisitions and the separation of property. Divorce may result from the mutual consent of the spouses as certified by the civil tribunal or by a judicial decision made at the request of one of the spouses declaring the disillusion of the marriage; procedural conditions and procedure for approvals are reviewed. Grounds for contested divorce, procedures, general provisions, conciliation, the judgement of divorce, and effects of divorce with respect to spouses, and children are covered. Legal separation is covered, its forms and procedures, effects, and end are outlined. Filiation is defined, including maternal and paternal definitions, the requirements of proof, disavowing or disputing paternity and action to contest acknowledgment, actions for maintenance, and the effects of filiation of origin; adoptive filiation is created independent of the child's origins. The final chapter contains information on parental authority.

An fMRI-Based Neural Signature of Decisions to Smoke Cannabis.

PubMed

Bedi, Gillinder; Lindquist, Martin A; Haney, Margaret

2015-11-01

Drug dependence may be at its core a pathology of choice, defined by continued decisions to use drugs irrespective of negative consequences. Despite evidence of dysregulated decision making in addiction, little is known about the neural processes underlying the most clinically relevant decisions drug users make: decisions to use drugs. Here, we combined functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), machine learning, and human laboratory drug administration to investigate neural activation underlying decisions to smoke cannabis. Nontreatment-seeking daily cannabis smokers completed an fMRI choice task, making repeated decisions to purchase or decline 1-12 placebo or active cannabis 'puffs' ($0.25-$5/puff). One randomly selected decision was implemented. If the selected choice had been bought, the cost was deducted from study earnings and the purchased cannabis smoked in the laboratory; alternatively, the participant remained in the laboratory without cannabis. Machine learning with leave-one-subject-out cross-validation identified distributed neural activation patterns discriminating decisions to buy cannabis from declined offers. A total of 21 participants were included in behavioral analyses; 17 purchased cannabis and were thus included in fMRI analyses. Purchasing varied lawfully with dose and cost. The classifier discriminated with 100% accuracy between fMRI activation patterns for purchased vs declined cannabis at the level of the individual. Dorsal striatum, insula, posterior parietal regions, anterior and posterior cingulate, and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex all contributed reliably to this neural signature of decisions to smoke cannabis. These findings provide the basis for a brain-based characterization of drug-related decision making in drug abuse, including effects of psychological and pharmacological interventions on these processes.

Criteria for Drug Reimbursement Decision-Making: An Emerging Public Health Challenge in Bulgaria

PubMed Central

Iskrov, Georgi; Stefanov, Rumen

2016-01-01

Background: During times of fiscal austerity, means of reimbursement decision-making are of particular interest for public health theory and practice. Introduction of advanced health technologies, growing health expenditures and increased public scrutiny over drug reimbursement decisions have pushed governments to consider mechanisms that promote the use of effective health technologies, while constraining costs. Aims: The study’s aim was to explore the current rationale of the drug reimbursement decision-making framework in Bulgaria. Our pilot research focused on one particular component of this process – the criteria used – because of the critical role that criteria are known to have in setting budgets and priorities in the field of public health. The analysis pursued two objectives: to identify important criteria relevant to drug reimbursement decision-making and to unveil relationships between theory and practice. Study Design: Cross-sectional study. Methods: The study was realized through a closed-ended survey on reimbursement criteria among four major public health stakeholders – medical professionals, patients, health authorities, and industry. Empirical outcomes were then cross-compared with the theoretical framework, as defined by current Bulgarian public health legislation. Analysis outlined what is done and what needs to be done in the field of public health reimbursement decision-making. Results: Bulgarian public health stakeholders agreed on 15 criteria to form a tentative optimal framework for drug reimbursement decision-making. The most apparent gap between the empirically found preferences and the official legislation is the lack of consideration for the strength of evidence in reimbursement decisions. Conclusion: Bulgarian policy makers need to address specific gaps, such as formal consideration for strength of evidence, explicit role of efficiency criteria, and means to effectively empower patient and citizen involvement in public health decision-making. Drug reimbursement criteria have to be integrated into legitimate public health decision support tools that ensure the achievement of national public health objectives. These recommendations could be expanded to all Eastern European countries who share common public health problems. PMID:26966615

Looking at CER from Medicare's perspective.

PubMed

Mohr, Penny

2012-05-01

Comparative effectiveness research (CER) is rapidly adding to the amount of data available to health care coverage and payment decision makers. Medicare's decisions have a large effect on coverage and reimbursement policies throughout the health insurance industry and will likely influence the entire U.S. health care system; thus, examining its role in integrating CER into policy is crucial. To describe the potential benefits of CER to support payment and coverage decisions in the Medicare program, limitations on its use,the role of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) in improving the infrastructure for CER, and to discuss challenges that must be addressed to integrate CER into CMS's decision-making process. A defining feature of CER is that it provides the type of evidence that will help decision makers, such as patients, clinicians, and payers,make more informed treatment and policy decisions. Because CMS is responsible for more than 47 million elderly and disabled beneficiaries, the way that Medicare uses CER has the potential to have a large impact on public and individual health. Currently many critical payment and coverage decisions within the Medicare program are made on the basis of poor quality evidence, and CER has the potential to greatly improve the quality of decision making. Despite common misconceptions, CMS is not prohibited by law from using CER apart from some reasonable limitations. CMS is,however, required to support the development of the CER infrastructure by making their data more readily available to researchers. While CER has substantial potential to improve the quality of the agency's policy decisions,challenges remain to integrate CER into Medicare's processes. These challenges include statutory ambiguities, lack of sufficient staff and internal resources to take advantage of CER, and the lack of an active voice in setting priorities for CER and study design. Although challenges exist, CER has the potential to greatly enhance CMS's ability to make decisions regarding coverage and payment that will benefit both the agency and their patient population.

Assessing the chances of success: naïve statistics versus kind experience.

PubMed

Hogarth, Robin M; Mukherjee, Kanchan; Soyer, Emre

2013-01-01

Additive integration of information is ubiquitous in judgment and has been shown to be effective even when multiplicative rules of probability theory are prescribed. We explore the generality of these findings in the context of estimating probabilities of success in contests. We first define a normative model of these probabilities that takes account of relative skill levels in contests where only a limited number of entrants can win. We then report 4 experiments using a scenario about a competition. Experiments 1 and 2 both elicited judgments of probabilities, and, although participants' responses demonstrated considerable variability, their mean judgments provide a good fit to a simple linear model. Experiment 3 explored choices. Most participants entered most contests and showed little awareness of appropriate probabilities. Experiment 4 investigated effects of providing aids to calculate probabilities, specifically, access to expert advice and 2 simulation tools. With these aids, estimates were accurate and decisions varied appropriately with economic consequences. We discuss implications by considering when additive decision rules are dysfunctional, the interpretation of overconfidence based on contest-entry behavior, and the use of aids to help people make better decisions.

To Issue of Mathematical Management Methods Applied for Investment-Building Complex under Conditions of Economic Crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novikova, V.; Nikolaeva, O.

2017-11-01

In the article the authors consider a cognitive management method of the investment-building complex in the crisis conditions. The factors influencing the choice of an investment strategy are studied, the basic lines of the activity in the field of crisis-management from a position of mathematical modelling are defined. The general approach to decision-making on investment in real assets on the basis of the discrete systems based on the optimum control theory is offered. With the use of a discrete maximum principle the task in view of the decision is found. The numerical algorithm to define the optimum control is formulated by investments. Analytical decisions for the case of constant profitability of the basic means are obtained.

Teaching Ethics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shellogg, Kathy M.; And Others

1988-01-01

Student activities professionals have a role in teaching ethics on campuses. Teaching ethics is defined as "the process of teaching ethical decision making." Karen Strohm Kitchener's "Model of Ethical Decision Making" provides a framework to be used when looking at an ethical problem. (MLW)

Cognitive Phenotypes and the Evolution of Animal Decisions.

PubMed

Mendelson, Tamra C; Fitzpatrick, Courtney L; Hauber, Mark E; Pence, Charles H; Rodríguez, Rafael L; Safran, Rebecca J; Stern, Caitlin A; Stevens, Jeffrey R

2016-11-01

Despite the clear fitness consequences of animal decisions, the science of animal decision making in evolutionary biology is underdeveloped compared with decision science in human psychology. Specifically, the field lacks a conceptual framework that defines and describes the relevant components of a decision, leading to imprecise language and concepts. The 'judgment and decision-making' (JDM) framework in human psychology is a powerful tool for framing and understanding human decisions, and we apply it here to components of animal decisions, which we refer to as 'cognitive phenotypes'. We distinguish multiple cognitive phenotypes in the context of a JDM framework and highlight empirical approaches to characterize them as evolvable traits. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Incorporating patient-preference evidence into regulatory decision making.

PubMed

Ho, Martin P; Gonzalez, Juan Marcos; Lerner, Herbert P; Neuland, Carolyn Y; Whang, Joyce M; McMurry-Heath, Michelle; Hauber, A Brett; Irony, Telba

2015-10-01

Patients have a unique role in deciding what treatments should be available for them and regulatory agencies should take their preferences into account when making treatment approval decisions. This is the first study designed to obtain quantitative patient-preference evidence to inform regulatory approval decisions by the Food and Drug Administration Center for Devices and Radiological Health. Five-hundred and forty United States adults with body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30 kg/m(2) evaluated tradeoffs among effectiveness, safety, and other attributes of weight-loss devices in a scientific survey. Discrete-choice experiments were used to quantify the importance of safety, effectiveness, and other attributes of weight-loss devices to obese respondents. A tool based on these measures is being used to inform benefit-risk assessments for premarket approval of medical devices. Respondent choices yielded preference scores indicating their relative value for attributes of weight-loss devices in this study. We developed a tool to estimate the minimum weight loss acceptable by a patient to receive a device with a given risk profile and the maximum mortality risk tolerable in exchange for a given weight loss. For example, to accept a device with 0.01 % mortality risk, a risk tolerant patient will require about 10 % total body weight loss lasting 5 years. Patient preference evidence was used make regulatory decision making more patient-centered. In addition, we captured the heterogeneity of patient preferences allowing market approval of effective devices for risk tolerant patients. CDRH is using the study tool to define minimum clinical effectiveness to evaluate new weight-loss devices. The methods presented can be applied to a wide variety of medical products. This study supports the ongoing development of a guidance document on incorporating patient preferences into medical-device premarket approval decisions.

The neural correlates of moral decision-making: A systematic review and meta-analysis of moral evaluations and response decision judgements.

PubMed

Garrigan, Beverley; Adlam, Anna L R; Langdon, Peter E

2016-10-01

The aims of this systematic review were to determine: (a) which brain areas are consistently more active when making (i) moral response decisions, defined as choosing a response to a moral dilemma, or deciding whether to accept a proposed solution, or (ii) moral evaluations, defined as judging the appropriateness of another's actions in a moral dilemma, rating moral statements as right or wrong, or identifying important moral issues; and (b) shared and significantly different activation patterns for these two types of moral judgements. A systematic search of the literature returned 28 experiments. Activation likelihood estimate analysis identified the brain areas commonly more active for moral response decisions and for moral evaluations. Conjunction analysis revealed shared activation for both types of moral judgement in the left middle temporal gyrus, cingulate gyrus, and medial frontal gyrus. Contrast analyses found no significant clusters of increased activation for the moral evaluations-moral response decisions contrast, but found that moral response decisions additionally activated the left and right middle temporal gyrus and the right precuneus. Making one's own moral decisions involves different brain areas compared to judging the moral actions of others, implying that these judgements may involve different processes. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The influence of financial officers on the decision-making process in health facilities: a study in Ankara.

PubMed

Kisa, Adnan; Kavuncubasi, Sahin; Ersoy, Korkut

2006-01-01

Financial officers in health facilities currently face 2 main duties. The first is to help the management team in the decision-making process and the second is to ensure the integrity of financial reports to outsiders and outside agencies. A roster of 191 private outpatient clinics in Ankara was drawn up. Fourteen private hospitals and 66 private clinics were included in the study via systematic sampling. Financial officers' perceptions of involvement in 46 decisions (grouped as strategic decisions, accounting and assessment, and nonfinancial decisions) were gauged using a responsive scale ranging from 1 (no involvement) to 5 (greatly involved). Involvement was defined as the extent of participation in specific decision-making issues. High involvement is assumed to be tantamount to influence and can be visualized in the extent to which financial officers could challenge plans, recommend or disapprove, or take a very significant role in reaching decisions. The results of the study show that in the dynamic environment in which health facilities operate, the financial officer's role is somewhat equivocal. The study suggests that the power and influence of financial officers should be defined in such a way so as to develop a clear role for these members of the management team.

What is the most cost-effective treatment for 1 to 2-cm bulbar urethral strictures: societal approach using decision analysis.

PubMed

Wright, Jonathan L; Wessells, Hunter; Nathens, Avery B; Hollingworth, Will

2006-05-01

Direct vision internal urethrotomy (DVIU) and urethroplasty are the primary methods of managing urethral stricture disease. Using decision analysis, we determine the cost-effectiveness of different management strategies for short, bulbar urethral strictures 1 to 2 cm in length. A decision tree was constructed, with the number of planned possible DVIUs before attempting urethroplasty defined for each primary branch point. Success rates were obtained from published reports. Costs were estimated from a societal perspective and included the costs of the procedures and office visits and lost wages from convalescence. Sensitivity analyses were conducted, varying the success rates of the procedures and cost estimates. The most cost-effective approach was one DVIU before urethroplasty. The incremental cost of performing a second DVIU before attempting urethroplasty was $141,962 for each additional successfully voiding patient. In the sensitivity analysis, urethroplasty as the primary therapy was cost-effective only when the expected success rate of the first DVIU was less than 35%. The most cost-effective strategy for the management of short, bulbar urethral strictures is to reserve urethroplasty for patients in whom a single endoscopic attempt fails. For longer strictures for which the success rate of DVIU is expected to be less than 35%, urethroplasty as primary therapy is cost-effective. Future prospective, multicenter studies of DVIU and urethroplasty outcomes would help enhance the accuracy of our model.

Measurement and Modelling: Sequential Use of Analytical Techniques in a Study of Risk-Taking in Decision-Making by School Principals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trimmer, Karen

2016-01-01

This paper investigates reasoned risk-taking in decision-making by school principals using a methodology that combines sequential use of psychometric and traditional measurement techniques. Risk-taking is defined as when decisions are made that are not compliant with the regulatory framework, the primary governance mechanism for public schools in…

Quantum stochastic walks on networks for decision-making.

PubMed

Martínez-Martínez, Ismael; Sánchez-Burillo, Eduardo

2016-03-31

Recent experiments report violations of the classical law of total probability and incompatibility of certain mental representations when humans process and react to information. Evidence shows promise of a more general quantum theory providing a better explanation of the dynamics and structure of real decision-making processes than classical probability theory. Inspired by this, we show how the behavioral choice-probabilities can arise as the unique stationary distribution of quantum stochastic walkers on the classical network defined from Luce's response probabilities. This work is relevant because (i) we provide a very general framework integrating the positive characteristics of both quantum and classical approaches previously in confrontation, and (ii) we define a cognitive network which can be used to bring other connectivist approaches to decision-making into the quantum stochastic realm. We model the decision-maker as an open system in contact with her surrounding environment, and the time-length of the decision-making process reveals to be also a measure of the process' degree of interplay between the unitary and irreversible dynamics. Implementing quantum coherence on classical networks may be a door to better integrate human-like reasoning biases in stochastic models for decision-making.

Quantum stochastic walks on networks for decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez-Martínez, Ismael; Sánchez-Burillo, Eduardo

2016-03-01

Recent experiments report violations of the classical law of total probability and incompatibility of certain mental representations when humans process and react to information. Evidence shows promise of a more general quantum theory providing a better explanation of the dynamics and structure of real decision-making processes than classical probability theory. Inspired by this, we show how the behavioral choice-probabilities can arise as the unique stationary distribution of quantum stochastic walkers on the classical network defined from Luce’s response probabilities. This work is relevant because (i) we provide a very general framework integrating the positive characteristics of both quantum and classical approaches previously in confrontation, and (ii) we define a cognitive network which can be used to bring other connectivist approaches to decision-making into the quantum stochastic realm. We model the decision-maker as an open system in contact with her surrounding environment, and the time-length of the decision-making process reveals to be also a measure of the process’ degree of interplay between the unitary and irreversible dynamics. Implementing quantum coherence on classical networks may be a door to better integrate human-like reasoning biases in stochastic models for decision-making.

Quantum stochastic walks on networks for decision-making

PubMed Central

Martínez-Martínez, Ismael; Sánchez-Burillo, Eduardo

2016-01-01

Recent experiments report violations of the classical law of total probability and incompatibility of certain mental representations when humans process and react to information. Evidence shows promise of a more general quantum theory providing a better explanation of the dynamics and structure of real decision-making processes than classical probability theory. Inspired by this, we show how the behavioral choice-probabilities can arise as the unique stationary distribution of quantum stochastic walkers on the classical network defined from Luce’s response probabilities. This work is relevant because (i) we provide a very general framework integrating the positive characteristics of both quantum and classical approaches previously in confrontation, and (ii) we define a cognitive network which can be used to bring other connectivist approaches to decision-making into the quantum stochastic realm. We model the decision-maker as an open system in contact with her surrounding environment, and the time-length of the decision-making process reveals to be also a measure of the process’ degree of interplay between the unitary and irreversible dynamics. Implementing quantum coherence on classical networks may be a door to better integrate human-like reasoning biases in stochastic models for decision-making. PMID:27030372

From research to evidence-informed decision making: a systematic approach

PubMed Central

Poot, Charlotte C; van der Kleij, Rianne M; Brakema, Evelyn A; Vermond, Debbie; Williams, Siân; Cragg, Liza; van den Broek, Jos M; Chavannes, Niels H

2018-01-01

Abstract Background Knowledge creation forms an integral part of the knowledge-to-action framework aimed at bridging the gap between research and evidence-informed decision making. Although principles of science communication, data visualisation and user-centred design largely impact the effectiveness of communication, their role in knowledge creation is still limited. Hence, this article aims to provide researchers a systematic approach on how knowledge creation can be put into practice. Methods A systematic two-phased approach towards knowledge creation was formulated and executed. First, during a preparation phase the purpose and audience of the knowledge were defined. Subsequently, a developmental phase facilitated how the content is ‘said’ (language) and communicated (channel). This developmental phase proceeded via two pathways: a translational cycle and design cycle, during which core translational and design components were incorporated. The entire approach was demonstrated by a case study. Results The case study demonstrated how the phases in this systematic approach can be operationalised. It furthermore illustrated how created knowledge can be delivered. Conclusion The proposed approach offers researchers a systematic, practical and easy-to-implement tool to facilitate effective knowledge creation towards decision-makers in healthcare. Through the integration of core components of knowledge creation evidence-informed decision making will ultimately be optimized. PMID:29538728

Spheres of Knowledge that Require Open-mindedness and Open Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Branch, B. D.

2009-05-01

The progress of social knowledge is impeded if not paralyzed at present by two fundamental factors, one impinging from knowledge without, and the other operating within the world of science itself' (Mannheim, Wirth, and Shils, p. xi). Hence, a Sphere of Knowledge (SK) defined here as a pseudo-ontology, may require a societal open-mindedness as defined by Dewey (1912). With professional open-mindedness and open data use, such social constructs may bridge and build relations towards efficient and effective societal problem solving. Open data use is defined where information has to be gathered from many sources to provided input for latter decision-making in the public interest. Here, spatial thinking may be the heart of data collection, analysis, and reporting that sustains an informatics experience among all parts of society. Here, at risk may be human survival and sustainability if policy and politics has hindered scientific or evidence-based transfer. Executive Order 12096, Coordinating Geographical Data Acquisition and Access: The National Spatial Data Infrastructure, by the federal government in 1994, may be an example of an informatics gap of knowledge where a federal mandate is not being connected to geosciences tools and community leaders that could benefit an open society. Critical in a SK is how an open society makes effective decisions if the issues it faces are new with unpredictable outcomes. Policy and politics should not impede the scientific or evidence based knowledge transfer but should be a root of democratic tools. Policy development and implementation should reflect such complexities' (Gardner, et al, 2003, p. 2). Conceptually, a SK may be too broad for any one disciplinary to address effectively as a next generation concern. The demand for deep integration of scientific data within and between disciplines is also growing, as larger and broader science questions are becoming more common. Concurrent with the growing demand for next generation information technology for science is a growth in semantic technologies' (McGuinness, Fox, and Brodaric, 2008, p. 1). Thus, if human survivability and sustainability exist in this manner as a societal issue, then effective interdisciplinary collaboration among social and hard sciences must effectively value the other to see an advance of evidence based and science based habits in the citizenry. The effective decision making of society may be dependent on the skills of science, its data sharing, and collaboration skills of multiple disciplines to reach feasible solutions for the public interest.

Nurse aide decision making in nursing homes: factors affecting empowerment.

PubMed

Chaudhuri, Tanni; Yeatts, Dale E; Cready, Cynthia M

2013-09-01

To evaluate factors affecting structural empowerment among nurse aides in nursing homes. Structural empowerment can be defined as the actual rather than perceived ability to make autonomous decisions within an organisation. Given the paucity of research on the subject, this study helps to close the gap by identifying factors that affect nurse aide empowerment, that is, decision-making among nurse aides. The data for the study come from self-administered questionnaires distributed to direct-care workers (nurse aides) in 11 nursing homes in a southern state in the USA. Ordinary least square regression models were estimated to analyse the effects of demographic predictors, personal factors (competency, emotional exhaustion and positive attitude) and structural characteristics (coworker and supervisor support, information availability and shared governance) on nurse aide decision-making. Findings suggest race among demographic predictors, emotional exhaustion among personal characteristics, and supervisor support, and shared governance among structural factors, significantly affect nurse aide decision-making. It is important to explore race as one of the central determinants of structural empowerment among nurse aides. In addition, the nature and type of emotional exhaustion that propels decision-making needs to be further examined. The study shows the importance of shared governance and supervisor support for fostering nurse aide empowerment. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Optimal operating rules definition in complex water resource systems combining fuzzy logic, expert criteria and stochastic programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macian-Sorribes, Hector; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2016-04-01

This contribution presents a methodology for defining optimal seasonal operating rules in multireservoir systems coupling expert criteria and stochastic optimization. Both sources of information are combined using fuzzy logic. The structure of the operating rules is defined based on expert criteria, via a joint expert-technician framework consisting in a series of meetings, workshops and surveys carried out between reservoir managers and modelers. As a result, the decision-making process used by managers can be assessed and expressed using fuzzy logic: fuzzy rule-based systems are employed to represent the operating rules and fuzzy regression procedures are used for forecasting future inflows. Once done that, a stochastic optimization algorithm can be used to define optimal decisions and transform them into fuzzy rules. Finally, the optimal fuzzy rules and the inflow prediction scheme are combined into a Decision Support System for making seasonal forecasts and simulate the effect of different alternatives in response to the initial system state and the foreseen inflows. The approach presented has been applied to the Jucar River Basin (Spain). Reservoir managers explained how the system is operated, taking into account the reservoirs' states at the beginning of the irrigation season and the inflows previewed during that season. According to the information given by them, the Jucar River Basin operating policies were expressed via two fuzzy rule-based (FRB) systems that estimate the amount of water to be allocated to the users and how the reservoir storages should be balanced to guarantee those deliveries. A stochastic optimization model using Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) was developed to define optimal decisions, which are transformed into optimal operating rules embedding them into the two FRBs previously created. As a benchmark, historical records are used to develop alternative operating rules. A fuzzy linear regression procedure was employed to foresee future inflows depending on present and past hydrological and meteorological variables actually used by the reservoir managers to define likely inflow scenarios. A Decision Support System (DSS) was created coupling the FRB systems and the inflow prediction scheme in order to give the user a set of possible optimal releases in response to the reservoir states at the beginning of the irrigation season and the fuzzy inflow projections made using hydrological and meteorological information. The results show that the optimal DSS created using the FRB operating policies are able to increase the amount of water allocated to the users in 20 to 50 Mm3 per irrigation season with respect to the current policies. Consequently, the mechanism used to define optimal operating rules and transform them into a DSS is able to increase the water deliveries in the Jucar River Basin, combining expert criteria and optimization algorithms in an efficient way. This study has been partially supported by the IMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-1-R) with Spanish MINECO (Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad) and FEDER funds. It also has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the IMPREX project (grant agreement no: 641.811).

An innovative approach to addressing childhood obesity: a knowledge-based infrastructure for supporting multi-stakeholder partnership decision-making in Quebec, Canada.

PubMed

Addy, Nii Antiaye; Shaban-Nejad, Arash; Buckeridge, David L; Dubé, Laurette

2015-01-23

Multi-stakeholder partnerships (MSPs) have become a widespread means for deploying policies in a whole of society strategy to address the complex problem of childhood obesity. However, decision-making in MSPs is fraught with challenges, as decision-makers are faced with complexity, and have to reconcile disparate conceptualizations of knowledge across multiple sectors with diverse sets of indicators and data. These challenges can be addressed by supporting MSPs with innovative tools for obtaining, organizing and using data to inform decision-making. The purpose of this paper is to describe and analyze the development of a knowledge-based infrastructure to support MSP decision-making processes. The paper emerged from a study to define specifications for a knowledge-based infrastructure to provide decision support for community-level MSPs in the Canadian province of Quebec. As part of the study, a process assessment was conducted to understand the needs of communities as they collect, organize, and analyze data to make decisions about their priorities. The result of this process is a "portrait", which is an epidemiological profile of health and nutrition in their community. Portraits inform strategic planning and development of interventions, and are used to assess the impact of interventions. Our key findings indicate ambiguities and disagreement among MSP decision-makers regarding causal relationships between actions and outcomes, and the relevant data needed for making decisions. MSP decision-makers expressed a desire for easy-to-use tools that facilitate the collection, organization, synthesis, and analysis of data, to enable decision-making in a timely manner. Findings inform conceptual modeling and ontological analysis to capture the domain knowledge and specify relationships between actions and outcomes. This modeling and analysis provide the foundation for an ontology, encoded using OWL 2 Web Ontology Language. The ontology is developed to provide semantic support for the MSP process, defining objectives, strategies, actions, indicators, and data sources. In the future, software interacting with the ontology can facilitate interactive browsing by decision-makers in the MSP in the form of concepts, instances, relationships, and axioms. Our ontology also facilitates the integration and interpretation of community data, and can help in managing semantic interoperability between different knowledge sources. Future work will focus on defining specifications for the development of a database of indicators and an information system to help decision-makers to view, analyze and organize indicators for their community. This work should improve MSP decision-making in the development of interventions to address childhood obesity.

An Innovative Approach to Addressing Childhood Obesity: A Knowledge-Based Infrastructure for Supporting Multi-Stakeholder Partnership Decision-Making in Quebec, Canada

PubMed Central

Addy, Nii Antiaye; Shaban-Nejad, Arash; Buckeridge, David L.; Dubé, Laurette

2015-01-01

Multi-stakeholder partnerships (MSPs) have become a widespread means for deploying policies in a whole of society strategy to address the complex problem of childhood obesity. However, decision-making in MSPs is fraught with challenges, as decision-makers are faced with complexity, and have to reconcile disparate conceptualizations of knowledge across multiple sectors with diverse sets of indicators and data. These challenges can be addressed by supporting MSPs with innovative tools for obtaining, organizing and using data to inform decision-making. The purpose of this paper is to describe and analyze the development of a knowledge-based infrastructure to support MSP decision-making processes. The paper emerged from a study to define specifications for a knowledge-based infrastructure to provide decision support for community-level MSPs in the Canadian province of Quebec. As part of the study, a process assessment was conducted to understand the needs of communities as they collect, organize, and analyze data to make decisions about their priorities. The result of this process is a “portrait”, which is an epidemiological profile of health and nutrition in their community. Portraits inform strategic planning and development of interventions, and are used to assess the impact of interventions. Our key findings indicate ambiguities and disagreement among MSP decision-makers regarding causal relationships between actions and outcomes, and the relevant data needed for making decisions. MSP decision-makers expressed a desire for easy-to-use tools that facilitate the collection, organization, synthesis, and analysis of data, to enable decision-making in a timely manner. Findings inform conceptual modeling and ontological analysis to capture the domain knowledge and specify relationships between actions and outcomes. This modeling and analysis provide the foundation for an ontology, encoded using OWL 2 Web Ontology Language. The ontology is developed to provide semantic support for the MSP process, defining objectives, strategies, actions, indicators, and data sources. In the future, software interacting with the ontology can facilitate interactive browsing by decision-makers in the MSP in the form of concepts, instances, relationships, and axioms. Our ontology also facilitates the integration and interpretation of community data, and can help in managing semantic interoperability between different knowledge sources. Future work will focus on defining specifications for the development of a database of indicators and an information system to help decision-makers to view, analyze and organize indicators for their community. This work should improve MSP decision-making in the development of interventions to address childhood obesity. PMID:25625409

A systematic review of online resources to support patient decision-making for full-thickness rectal prolapse surgery.

PubMed

Fowler, G E; Baker, D M; Lee, M J; Brown, S R

2017-11-01

The internet is becoming an increasingly popular resource to support patient decision-making outside of the clinical encounter. The quality of online health information is variable and largely unregulated. The aim of this study was to assess the quality of online resources to support patient decision-making for full-thickness rectal prolapse surgery. This systematic review was registered on the PROSPERO database (CRD42017058319). Searches were performed on Google and specialist decision aid repositories using a pre-defined search strategy. Sources were analysed according to three measures: (1) their readability using the Flesch-Kincaid Reading Ease score, (2) DISCERN score and (3) International Patient Decision Aids Standards (IPDAS) minimum standards criteria score (IPDASi, v4.0). Overall, 95 sources were from Google and the specialist decision aid repositories. There were 53 duplicates removed, and 18 sources did not meet the pre-defined eligibility criteria, leaving 24 sources included in the full-text analysis. The mean Flesch-Kincaid Reading Ease score was higher than recommended for patient education materials (48.8 ± 15.6, range 25.2-85.3). Overall quality of sources supporting patient decision-making for full-thickness rectal prolapse surgery was poor (median DISCERN score 1/5 ± 1.18, range 1-5). No sources met minimum decision-making standards (median IPDASi score 5/12 ± 2.01, range 1-8). Currently, easily accessible online health information to support patient decision-making for rectal surgery is of poor quality, difficult to read and does not support shared decision-making. It is recommended that professional bodies and medical professionals seek to develop decision aids to support decision-making for full-thickness rectal prolapse surgery.

IONIO Project: Computer-mediated Decision Support System and Communication in Ocean Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oddo, Paolo; Acierno, Arianna; Cuna, Daniela; Federico, Ivan; Galati, Maria Barbara; Awad, Esam; Korres, Gerasimos; Lecci, Rita; Manzella, Giuseppe M. R.; Merico, Walter; Perivoliotis, Leonidas; Pinardi, Nadia; Shchekinova, Elena; Mannarini, Gianandrea; Vamvakaki, Chrysa; Pecci, Leda; Reseghetti, Franco

2013-04-01

A decision Support System is composed by four main steps. The first one is the definition of the problem, the issue to be covered, decisions to be taken. Different causes can provoke different problems, for each of the causes or its effects it is necessary to define a list of information and/or data that are required in order to take the better decision. The second step is the determination of sources from where information/data needed for decision-making can be obtained and who has that information. Furthermore it must be possible to evaluate the quality of the sources to see which of them can provide the best information, and identify the mode and format in which the information is presented. The third step is relying on the processing of knowledge, i.e. if the information/data are fitting for purposes. It has to be decided which parts of the information/data need to be used, what additional data or information is necessary to access, how can information be best presented to be able to understand the situation and take decisions. Finally, the decision making process is an interactive and inclusive process involving all concerned parties, whose different views must be taken into consideration. A knowledge based discussion forum is necessary to reach a consensus. A decision making process need to be examined closely and refined, and modified to meet differing needs over time. The report is presenting legal framework and knowledge base for a scientific based decision support system and a brief exploration of some of the skills that enhances the quality of decisions taken.

The IGNITE (investigation to guide new insight into translational effectiveness) trial: Protocol for a translational study of an evidenced-based wellness program in fire departments

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Worksites are important locations for interventions to promote health. However, occupational programs with documented efficacy often are not used, and those being implemented have not been studied. The research in this report was funded through the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act Challenge Topic 'Pathways for Translational Research,' to define and prioritize determinants that enable and hinder translation of evidenced-based health interventions in well-defined settings. Methods The IGNITE (investigation to guide new insights for translational effectiveness) trial is a prospective cohort study of a worksite wellness and injury reduction program from adoption to final outcomes among 12 fire departments. It will employ a mixed methods strategy to define a translational model. We will assess decision to adopt, installation, use, and outcomes (reach, individual outcomes, and economic effects) using onsite measurements, surveys, focus groups, and key informant interviews. Quantitative data will be used to define the model and conduct mediation analysis of each translational phase. Qualitative data will expand on, challenge, and confirm survey findings and allow a more thorough understanding and convergent validity by overcoming biases in qualitative and quantitative methods used alone. Discussion Findings will inform worksite wellness in fire departments. The resultant prioritized influences and model of effective translation can be validated and manipulated in these and other settings to more efficiently move science to service. PMID:20932290

The Business of Co-Production: Assessing Efforts to Bridge Science and Decision-Making for Adaptation in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webber, S.; MacDonald, G. M.

2016-12-01

The last decades have seen scholars argue for a greater integration of science and decision-making in order to more effectively respond to climate change. It has been suggested that overcoming the gap between science, on the one hand, and policy-making and management, on the other, requires building bridges through methods of co-production, creating actionable science, or through boundary organizations. In this paper, we review attempts at co-production for policy-making and management in the context of climate change adaptation in California. Building on field research, including numerous interviews conducted with scientists and decision-makers who are co-producers of adaptation projects, we make three arguments. First, we show that an emphasis on co-production and science-informed climate change adaptation decision-making has bolstered a contract-oriented, and decentralized network-based model of producing climate science. Second, reviewing successes and failures in co-production - as reported in interviews - indicates that it is principally in cases of neatly defined, and spatially and temporarily narrow decision-making contexts, and with highly motivated decision-makers, that climate science is used. Finally, we suggest that the ideas of co-production and actionable science may have increased the institutional and organizational burden at the science-decision interface, lengthening the boundary-organization-chain rather than necessarily facilitating adaptive policy-making and management.

Molecular diagnosis and precision medicine in allergy management.

PubMed

Riccio, Anna Maria; De Ferrari, Laura; Chiappori, Alessandra; Ledda, Sabina; Passalacqua, Giovanni; Melioli, Giovanni; Canonica, Giorgio Walter

2016-11-01

Precision medicine (PM) can be defined as a structural model aimed at customizing healthcare, with medical decisions/products tailored on an individual patient at a highly detailed level. In this sense, allergy diagnostics based on molecular allergen components allows to accurately define the patient's IgE repertoire. The availability of highly specialized singleplexed and multiplexed platforms support allergists with an advanced diagnostic armamentarium. The therapeutic intervention, driven by the standard diagnostic approach, but further supported by these innovative tools may result, for instance, in a more appropriate prescription of allergen immunotherapy (AIT). Also, the phenotyping of patients, which may have relevant effects on the treatment strategy, could be take advantage by the molecular allergy diagnosis.

Speech and language therapists' approaches to communication intervention with children and adults with profound and multiple learning disability.

PubMed

Goldbart, Juliet; Chadwick, Darren; Buell, Susan

2014-11-01

People with profound intellectual and multiple disabilities (PMLD) have communication impairments as one defining characteristic. To explore speech and language therapists' (SLTs) decision making in communication interventions for people with PMLD, in terms of the intervention approaches used, the factors informing the decisions to use specific interventions and the extent to which the rationales underpinning these decisions related to the components of evidence based practice (EBP), namely empirical evidence, clinical experience and client/carer views and values. A questionnaire on communication assessment and intervention for people with PMLD was sent to SLTs in the UK to elicit information on: the communication intervention approaches they used; their rationales for their intervention choices; their use of published evidence to inform decision making. Intensive interaction and objects of reference were the communication interventions most often used with people with PMLD, with some differences between children and adults evident. Rationales provided conformed somewhat to the EBP framework though extension of the existing framework and addition of practical and organizational considerations led to a revised typology of rationale for decision making. Rationales most frequently related to the empowerment, development and behavioural preferences of the person with PMLD. Empirical research evidence was seldom mentioned by SLTs as informing intervention decision making leading to very diverse practice. There is a need for further research on the effectiveness of commonly used but under-evaluated interventions. There is also a need to alert SLTs to the evidence base supporting other approaches, particularly switch-based, cause and effect approaches. © 2014 Royal College of Speech and Language Therapists.

Bayesian decision analysis as a tool for defining monitoring needs in the field of effects of CSOs on receiving waters.

PubMed

Korving, H; Clemens, F

2002-01-01

In recent years, decision analysis has become an important technique in many disciplines. It provides a methodology for rational decision-making allowing for uncertainties in the outcome of several possible actions to be undertaken. An example in urban drainage is the situation in which an engineer has to decide upon a major reconstruction of a system in order to prevent pollution of receiving waters due to CSOs. This paper describes the possibilities of Bayesian decision-making in urban drainage. In particular, the utility of monitoring prior to deciding on the reconstruction of a sewer system to reduce CSO emissions is studied. Our concern is with deciding whether a price should be paid for new information and which source of information is the best choice given the expected uncertainties in the outcome. The influence of specific uncertainties (sewer system data and model parameters) on the probability of CSO volumes is shown to be significant. Using Bayes' rule, to combine prior impressions with new observations, reduces the risks linked with the planning of sewer system reconstructions.

Towards public health decision support: a systematic review of bidirectional communication approaches.

PubMed

Dixon, Brian E; Gamache, Roland E; Grannis, Shaun J

2013-05-01

To summarize the literature describing computer-based interventions aimed at improving bidirectional communication between clinical and public health. A systematic review of English articles using MEDLINE and Google Scholar. Search terms included public health, epidemiology, electronic health records, decision support, expert systems, and decision-making. Only articles that described the communication of information regarding emerging health threats from public health agencies to clinicians or provider organizations were included. Each article was independently reviewed by two authors. Ten peer-reviewed articles highlight a nascent but promising area of research and practice related to alerting clinicians about emerging threats. Current literature suggests that additional research and development in bidirectional communication infrastructure should focus on defining a coherent architecture, improving interoperability, establishing clear governance, and creating usable systems that will effectively deliver targeted, specific information to clinicians in support of patient and population decision-making. Increasingly available clinical information systems make it possible to deliver timely, relevant knowledge to frontline clinicians in support of population health. Future work should focus on developing a flexible, interoperable infrastructure for bidirectional communications capable of integrating public health knowledge into clinical systems and workflows.

Management System Design for a Learner Centered School.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wagner, Kathleen

2000-01-01

Examines how a learner-centered Montessori school in Toronto, Ontario, defines, specifies, and implements its management decision-support system. Findings indicate a tightly integrated management system comprised of a few student-focused decision-support elements. Identifies relationships, resources, and particular organizational arrangements as…

LIFE CYCLE IMPACT ASSESSMENT FOR INCREASING INDUSTRIAL SUSTAINABILITY

EPA Science Inventory

Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) can be a very useful decision support tool for assisting in environmental decision making to allow the pursuit of increasing sustainability. Increasing sustainability will be defined and presented as a more concrete and quantifiable goal when c...

The appropriate and effective use of security technologies in U.S. schools : a guide for schools and law enforcement agencies.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Green, Mary Wilson

The purpose of this report is to provide school administrators with the ability to determine their security system requirements, so they can make informed decisions when working with vendors and others to improve their security posture. This is accomplished by (1) explaining a systems-based approach to defining the objectives and needs of the system, and (2), providing information on the ability of common components (sensors, cameras, metal detectors, etc) to achieve those objectives, in an effectively integrated system.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Web-based Climate Resilience Decision Support Tools: Insights from Coastal New Jersey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brady, M.; Lathrop, R.; Auermuller, L. M.; Leichenko, R.

2016-12-01

Despite the recent surge of Web-based decision support tools designed to promote resiliency in U.S. coastal communities, to-date there has been no systematic study of their effectiveness. This study demonstrates a method to evaluate important aspects of effectiveness of four Web map tools designed to promote consideration of climate risk information in local decision-making and planning used in coastal New Jersey. In summer 2015, the research team conducted in-depth phone interviews with users of one regulatory and three non-regulatory Web map tools using a semi-structured questionnaire. The interview and analysis design drew from a combination of effectiveness evaluation approaches developed in software and information usability, program evaluation, and management information system (MIS) research. Effectiveness assessment results were further analyzed and discussed in terms of conceptual hierarchy of system objectives defined by respective tool developer and user organizations represented in the study. Insights from the interviews suggest that users rely on Web tools as a supplement to desktop and analog map sources because they provide relevant and up-to-date information in a highly accessible and mobile format. The users also reported relying on multiple information sources and comparison between digital and analog sources for decision support. However, with respect to this decision support benefit, users were constrained by accessibility factors such as lack of awareness and training with some tools, lack of salient information such as planning time horizons associated with future flood scenarios, and environmental factors such as mandates restricting some users to regulatory tools. Perceptions of Web tool credibility seem favorable overall, but factors including system design imperfections and inconsistencies in data and information across platforms limited trust, highlighting a need for better coordination between tools. Contributions of the study include user feedback on web-tool system designs consistent with collaborative methods for enhancing usability and a systematic look at effectiveness that includes both user perspectives and consideration of developer and organizational objectives.

Defining Victory: Three Case Studies of Strategic Guidance and Decision Making

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-06-18

options to formulate guidance? Finally, did the decision makers adequately revisit their decisions in order to adapt to changing situations? The U.S...to leave guidance unchanged in the face of changing political circumstances. Both military and civilian leaders generally discounted the...unpredictable impact of military actions themselves on the strategic goals and therefore failed to adapt to changing situations. iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This

On optimal soft-decision demodulation. [in digital communication system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, L.-N.

1976-01-01

A necessary condition is derived for optimal J-ary coherent demodulation of M-ary (M greater than 2) signals. Optimality is defined as maximality of the symmetric cutoff rate of the resulting discrete memoryless channel. Using a counterexample, it is shown that the condition derived is generally not sufficient for optimality. This condition is employed as the basis for an iterative optimization method to find the optimal demodulator decision regions from an initial 'good guess'. In general, these regions are found to be bounded by hyperplanes in likelihood space; the corresponding regions in signal space are found to have hyperplane asymptotes for the important case of additive white Gaussian noise. Some examples are presented, showing that the regions in signal space bounded by these asymptotic hyperplanes define demodulator decision regions that are virtually optimal.

The Mental Capacity Act 2005: a new framework for healthcare decision making.

PubMed

Johnston, Carolyn; Liddle, Jane

2007-02-01

The Mental Capacity Act received Royal Assent on 7 April 2005, and it will be implemented in 2007. The Act defines when someone lacks capacity and it supports people with limited decision-making ability to make as many decisions as possible for themselves. The Act lays down rules for substitute decision making. Someone taking decisions on behalf of the person lacking capacity must act in the best interests of the person concerned and choose the options least restrictive of his or her rights and freedoms. Decision making will be allowed without any formal procedure unless specific provisions apply, such as a written advance decision, lasting powers of attorney or a decision by the court of protection.

Complexity, signal detection, and the application of ergonomics: reflections on a healthcare case study.

PubMed

Dekker, Sidney

2012-05-01

Complexity is a defining characteristic of healthcare, and ergonomic interventions in clinical practice need to take into account aspects vital for the success or failure of new technology. The introduction of new monitoring technology, for example, creates many ripple effects through clinical relationships and agents' cross-adaptations. This paper uses the signal detection paradigm to account for a case in which multiple clinical decision makers, across power hierarchies and gender gaps, manipulate each others' sensitivities to evidence and decision criteria. These are possible to analyze and predict with an applied ergonomics that is sensitive to the social complexities of the workplace, including power, gender, hierarchy and fuzzy system boundaries. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Defining the Ideal Lumbar Total Disc Replacement Patient and Standard of Care.

PubMed

Gornet, Matthew; Buttermann, Glenn; Guyer, Richard; Yue, James; Ferko, Nicole; Hollmann, Sarah

2017-12-15

: Lumbar total disc replacement, now in use since 2004, was determined by the panel to be a standard of care for the treatment of symptomatic single-level lumbar degenerative disc disease in the active patient subpopulation as outlined by the investigational device exemption study criteria. The large body of evidence supporting this statement, including surgeons' experiences, was presented and discussed. Consensus statements focusing on decision-making criteria reflected that efficacy, long-term safety, clinical outcomes with validated measures, and cost-effectiveness should form the basis of decision-making by payers. Diagnostic challenges with lumbar degenerative disc disease patients were discussed among the panel, and it was concluded that although variably used among surgeons, reliable tools exist to appropriately diagnose discogenic back pain.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration fundamental research program. Information utilization and evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estes, J. E.; Eisgruber, L.

1981-01-01

In the second half of the 1980's NASA can expect to face difficult choices among alternative fundamental and applied research, and development projects that could potentially lead to improvements in the information systems used to manage renewable resources. The working group on information utilization and evaluation believes that effective choices cannot be made without a better understanding of the current and prospective problems and opportunities involved in the application of remote sensing to improve renewable research information systems. A renewable resources information system is defined in a broad context to include a flow of data/information from: acquisition through processing, storage, integration with other data, analysis, graphic presentation, decision making, and assessment of the affects of those decisions.

Vasa previa screening strategies: a decision and cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Sinkey, R G; Odibo, A O

2018-05-22

The aim of this study is to perform a decision and cost-effectiveness analysis comparing four screening strategies for the antenatal diagnosis of vasa previa among singleton pregnancies. A decision-analytic model was constructed comparing vasa previa screening strategies. Published probabilities and costs were applied to four transvaginal screening scenarios which occurred at the time of mid-trimester ultrasound: no screening, ultrasound-indicated screening, screening pregnancies conceived by in vitro fertilization (IVF), and universal screening. Ultrasound-indicated screening was defined as performing a transvaginal ultrasound at the time of routine anatomy ultrasound in response to one of the following sonographic findings associated with an increased risk of vasa previa: low-lying placenta, marginal or velamentous cord insertion, or bilobed or succenturiate lobed placenta. The primary outcome was cost per quality adjusted life years (QALY) in U.S. dollars. The analysis was from a healthcare system perspective with a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of $100,000 per QALY selected. One-way and multivariate sensitivity analyses (Monte-Carlo simulation) were performed. This decision-analytic model demonstrated that screening pregnancies conceived by IVF was the most cost-effective strategy with an incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $29,186.50 / QALY. Ultrasound-indicated screening was the second most cost-effective with an ICER of $56,096.77 / QALY. These data were robust to all one-way and multivariate sensitivity analyses performed. Within our baseline assumptions, transvaginal ultrasound screening for vasa previa appears to be most cost-effective when performed among IVF pregnancies. However, both IVF and ultrasound-indicated screening strategies fall within contemporary willingness-to-pay thresholds, suggesting that both strategies may be appropriate to apply in clinical practice. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Strategic Retirement Reform: Identifying the Broader Strategic Effects from Changes in Human Capital

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-12-01

service and what factors influence their decisions?  What are the potential implications from adopting a defined contribution military retirement system...that best accommodated their personal schedules. After initial sign up , the focus groups were organized and conducted. Focus groups were scheduled to...positive or negative shock, or some other factor , compels a person to “evaluate against (a) a preexisting plan of action; (b) the individual’s values

Contracting for intensive care services.

PubMed

Dorman, S

1996-01-01

Purchasers will increasingly expect clinical services in the NHS internal market to provide objective measures of their benefits and cost effectiveness in order to maintain or develop current funding levels. There is limited scientific evidence to demonstrate the clinical effectiveness of intensive care services in terms of mortality/morbidity. Intensive care is a high-cost service and studies of cost-effectiveness need to take account of case-mix variations, differences in admission and discharge policies, and other differences between units. Decisions over development or rationalisation of intensive care services should be based on proper outcome studies of well defined patient groups. The purchasing function itself requires development in order to support effective contracting.

Using multi-species occupancy models in structured decision making on managed lands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, John R.; Blank, Peter J.; Zipkin, Elise F.; Fallon, Jane E.; Fallon, Frederick W.

2013-01-01

Land managers must balance the needs of a variety of species when manipulating habitats. Structured decision making provides a systematic means of defining choices and choosing among alternative management options; implementation of a structured decision requires quantitative approaches to predicting consequences of management on the relevant species. Multi-species occupancy models provide a convenient framework for making structured decisions when the management objective is focused on a collection of species. These models use replicate survey data that are often collected on managed lands. Occupancy can be modeled for each species as a function of habitat and other environmental features, and Bayesian methods allow for estimation and prediction of collective responses of groups of species to alternative scenarios of habitat management. We provide an example of this approach using data from breeding bird surveys conducted in 2008 at the Patuxent Research Refuge in Laurel, Maryland, evaluating the effects of eliminating meadow and wetland habitats on scrub-successional and woodland-breeding bird species using summed total occupancy of species as an objective function. Removal of meadows and wetlands decreased value of an objective function based on scrub-successional species by 23.3% (95% CI: 20.3–26.5), but caused only a 2% (0.5, 3.5) increase in value of an objective function based on woodland species, documenting differential effects of elimination of meadows and wetlands on these groups of breeding birds. This approach provides a useful quantitative tool for managers interested in structured decision making.

Application of Domain Knowledge to Software Quality Assurance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wild, Christian W.

1997-01-01

This work focused on capturing, using, and evolving a qualitative decision support structure across the life cycle of a project. The particular application of this study was towards business process reengineering and the representation of the business process in a set of Business Rules (BR). In this work, we defined a decision model which captured the qualitative decision deliberation process. It represented arguments both for and against proposed alternatives to a problem. It was felt that the subjective nature of many critical business policy decisions required a qualitative modeling approach similar to that of Lee and Mylopoulos. While previous work was limited almost exclusively to the decision capture phase, which occurs early in the project life cycle, we investigated the use of such a model during the later stages as well. One of our significant developments was the use of the decision model during the operational phase of a project. By operational phase, we mean the phase in which the system or set of policies which were earlier decided are deployed and put into practice. By making the decision model available to operational decision makers, they would have access to the arguments pro and con for a variety of actions and can thus make a more informed decision which balances the often conflicting criteria by which the value of action is measured. We also developed the concept of a 'monitored decision' in which metrics of performance were identified during the decision making process and used to evaluate the quality of that decision. It is important to monitor those decision which seem at highest risk of not meeting their stated objectives. Operational decisions are also potentially high risk decisions. Finally, we investigated the use of performance metrics for monitored decisions and audit logs of operational decisions in order to feed an evolutionary phase of the the life cycle. During evolution, decisions are revisisted, assumptions verified or refuted, and possible reassessments resulting in new policy are made. In this regard we implemented a machine learning algorithm which automatically defined business rules based on expert assessment of the quality of operational decisions as recorded during deployment.

Defining, Conceptualizing, Problematizing, and Assessing Language Teacher Assessment Literacy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stabler-Havener, Michelle L.

2018-01-01

Assessment literacy (AL) empowers teachers (Grabowski & Dakin, 2014) by helping them make better decisions about the development, administration, and use of assessments (Harding & Kremmel, 2016; Popham, 2009). This is crucial because when teachers make erroneous interpretations, which lead to incorrect decisions, students can suffer…

Normative Expectations and Individual Decisions concerning Media Gratification Choices.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lichtenstein, Allen; Rosenfeld, Lawrence

1984-01-01

Results indicate that each of the nine media studied (newspapers, magazines, commercial and public television, books, radio, friends, recorded music, film) has a clear, socially defined image, suggesting a two-stage model of media channel utilization--normative expectations followed by individual decisions. (PD)

Shared Decision Making in Intensive Care Units: An American College of Critical Care Medicine and American Thoracic Society Policy Statement

PubMed Central

Kon, Alexander A.; Davidson, Judy E.; Morrison, Wynne; Danis, Marion; White, Douglas B.

2015-01-01

Objectives Shared decision-making (SDM) is endorsed by critical care organizations, however there remains confusion about what SDM is, when it should be used, and approaches to promote partnerships in treatment decisions. The purpose of this statement is to define SDM, recommend when SDM should be used, identify the range of ethically acceptable decision-making models, and present important communication skills. Methods The American College of Critical Care Medicine (ACCM) and American Thoracic Society (ATS) Ethics Committees reviewed empirical research and normative analyses published in peer-reviewed journals to generate recommendations. Recommendations approved by consensus of the full Ethics Committees of ACCM and ATS were included in the statement. Main Results Six recommendations were endorsed: 1) Definition: Shared decision-making is a collaborative process that allows patients, or their surrogates, and clinicians to make health care decisions together, taking into account the best scientific evidence available, as well as the patient’s values, goals, and preferences. 2) Clinicians should engage in a SDM process to define overall goals of care (including decisions regarding limiting or withdrawing life-prolonging interventions) and when making major treatment decisions that may be affected by personal values, goals, and preferences. 3) Clinicians should use as their “default” approach a SDM process that includes three main elements: information exchange, deliberation, and making a treatment decision. 4) A wide range of decision-making approaches are ethically supportable including patient- or surrogate-directed and clinician-directed models. Clinicians should tailor the decision-making process based on the preferences of the patient or surrogate. 5) Clinicians should be trained in communication skills. 6) Research is needed to evaluate decision-making strategies. Conclusions Patient and surrogate preferences for decision-making roles regarding value-laden choices range from preferring to exercise significant authority to ceding such authority to providers. Clinicians should adapt the decision-making model to the needs and preferences of the patient or surrogate. PMID:26509317

The association between job strain and emotional exhaustion in a cohort of 1,028 Finnish teachers.

PubMed

Santavirta, Nina; Solovieva, Svetlana; Theorell, Töres

2007-03-01

Teachers' work overload has been the subject of intense research, and the results of these studies show that a substantial proportion of teachers perceive their job as very stressful. To investigate how different formulations of high demands and low decision latitude was related to teachers' burnout, and to estimate the possible interaction between these factors. The sample consisted of 1,028 school teachers. Multivariate covariant analyses (MANCOVA) was used to evaluate the relationship between a high-strain job defined by 3 different cut-off points and burnout. Logistical regression analysis was used to estimate the separate and joint effects of demand and decision authority on emotional exhaustion. Interaction between high demands and low decision authority was analysed using relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI). An attributable proportion (AP) was calculated in order to estimate the proportion of emotionally exhausted teachers among those exposed to both risk factors that was attributable to their synergistic interaction. The group of teachers who perceived their job as a low-strain job was used as the reference group in the analysis. The effect of job strain on burnout was proved to be consistent and robust across alternative formulations. The main effect of high demands exceeded that of low decision authority in relation to emotional exhaustion. Furthermore, the 2 factors acted synergistically to increase the risk of burnout. In the case of burnout, teachers who perceived their job as highly demanding and low in control, 69% of the effect could be attributed to the synergism of these 2 factors.

Development of a patient decision aid for people with refractory angina: protocol for a three-phase pilot study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Refractory angina is a severe chronic disease, defined as angina which cannot be controlled by usual treatments for heart disease. This disease is frightening, debilitating, and difficult to manage. Many people suffering refractory have inadequate pain relief, continually revisit emergency departments for help, undergo repeated cardiac investigations, and struggle with obtaining appropriate care. There is no clear framework to help people understand the risks and benefits of available treatment options in Canada. Some treatments for refractory angina are invasive, while others are not covered by provincial health insurance plans. Effective care for refractory angina sufferers in Canada is critically underdeveloped; it is important that healthcare professionals and refractory angina sufferers alike understand the treatment options and their implications. This proposal builds on the recent Canadian practice guidelines for the management of refractory angina. We propose to develop a decision support tool in order to help people suffering from refractory angina make well-informed decisions about their healthcare and reduce their uncertainty about treatment options. Methods This project will be conducted in three phases: a) development of the support tool with input from clinical experts, the Canadian refractory angina guidelines, and people living with refractory angina, b) pilot testing of the usability of the tool, and c) formal preliminary evaluation of the effectiveness of the support tool to help people make informed decisions about treatment options. Discussion A decision support tool for refractory angina is needed and the available data suggest that by developing such a tool, we may be able to help refractory angina sufferers better understand their condition and the effectiveness of available treatment options (in their respective clinical settings) as well as their implications (e.g. risks vs. benefits). By virtue of this tool, we may also be able to facilitate identification and inclusion of patients’ values and preferences in the decision making process. This is particularly important as refractory angina is an intractable condition, necessitating that the selected course of treatment be lifelong. This study will yield a much needed patient decision aid for people living with refractory angina and pilot data to support a subsequent effectiveness study. PMID:24920518

Thresholds for the cost-effectiveness of interventions: alternative approaches.

PubMed

Marseille, Elliot; Larson, Bruce; Kazi, Dhruv S; Kahn, James G; Rosen, Sydney

2015-02-01

Many countries use the cost-effectiveness thresholds recommended by the World Health Organization's Choosing Interventions that are Cost-Effective project (WHO-CHOICE) when evaluating health interventions. This project sets the threshold for cost-effectiveness as the cost of the intervention per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted less than three times the country's annual gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Highly cost-effective interventions are defined as meeting a threshold per DALY averted of once the annual GDP per capita. We argue that reliance on these thresholds reduces the value of cost-effectiveness analyses and makes such analyses too blunt to be useful for most decision-making in the field of public health. Use of these thresholds has little theoretical justification, skirts the difficult but necessary ranking of the relative values of locally-applicable interventions and omits any consideration of what is truly affordable. The WHO-CHOICE thresholds set such a low bar for cost-effectiveness that very few interventions with evidence of efficacy can be ruled out. The thresholds have little value in assessing the trade-offs that decision-makers must confront. We present alternative approaches for applying cost-effectiveness criteria to choices in the allocation of health-care resources.

DATA QUALITY OBJECTIVE SUMMARY REPORT FOR THE 105 K EAST ION EXCHANGE COLUMN MONOLITH

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

JOCHEN, R.M.

2007-08-02

The 105-K East (KE) Basin Ion Exchange Column (IXC) cells, lead caves, and the surrounding vault are to be removed as necessary components in implementing ''Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order'' (Ecology et al. 2003) milestone M-034-32 (Complete Removal of the K East Basin Structure). The IXCs consist of six units located in the KE Basin, three in operating positions in cells and three stored in a lead cave. Methods to remove the IXCs from the KE Basin were evaluated in KBC-28343, ''Disposal of K East Basin Ion Exchange Column Evaluation''. The method selected for removal was grouting themore » six IXCs into a single monolith for disposal at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF). Grout will be added to the IXC cells, IXC lead caves containing spent IXCs, and in the spaces between the lead cave walls and metal skin, to immobilize the contaminants, provide self-shielding, minimize void space, and provide a structurally stable waste form. The waste to be offered for disposal is the encapsulated monolith defined by the exterior surfaces of the vault and the lower surface of the underlying slab. This document presents summary of the data quality objective (DQO) process establishing the decisions and data required to support decision-making activities for the disposition of the IXC monolith. The DQO process is completed in accordance with the seven-step planning process described in EPA QA/G-4, ''Guidance for the Data Quality Objectives Process'', which is used to clarify and study objectives; define the appropriate type, quantity, and quality of data; and support defensible decision-making. The DQO process involves the following steps: (1) state the problem; (2) identify the decision; (3) identify the inputs to the decision; (4) define the boundaries of the study; (5) develop a decision rule (DR); (6) specify tolerable limits on decision errors; and (7) optimize the design for obtaining data.« less

Validation of educational assessments: a primer for simulation and beyond.

PubMed

Cook, David A; Hatala, Rose

2016-01-01

Simulation plays a vital role in health professions assessment. This review provides a primer on assessment validation for educators and education researchers. We focus on simulation-based assessment of health professionals, but the principles apply broadly to other assessment approaches and topics. Validation refers to the process of collecting validity evidence to evaluate the appropriateness of the interpretations, uses, and decisions based on assessment results. Contemporary frameworks view validity as a hypothesis, and validity evidence is collected to support or refute the validity hypothesis (i.e., that the proposed interpretations and decisions are defensible). In validation, the educator or researcher defines the proposed interpretations and decisions, identifies and prioritizes the most questionable assumptions in making these interpretations and decisions (the "interpretation-use argument"), empirically tests those assumptions using existing or newly-collected evidence, and then summarizes the evidence as a coherent "validity argument." A framework proposed by Messick identifies potential evidence sources: content, response process, internal structure, relationships with other variables, and consequences. Another framework proposed by Kane identifies key inferences in generating useful interpretations: scoring, generalization, extrapolation, and implications/decision. We propose an eight-step approach to validation that applies to either framework: Define the construct and proposed interpretation, make explicit the intended decision(s), define the interpretation-use argument and prioritize needed validity evidence, identify candidate instruments and/or create/adapt a new instrument, appraise existing evidence and collect new evidence as needed, keep track of practical issues, formulate the validity argument, and make a judgment: does the evidence support the intended use? Rigorous validation first prioritizes and then empirically evaluates key assumptions in the interpretation and use of assessment scores. Validation science would be improved by more explicit articulation and prioritization of the interpretation-use argument, greater use of formal validation frameworks, and more evidence informing the consequences and implications of assessment.

Good research practices for comparative effectiveness research: defining, reporting and interpreting nonrandomized studies of treatment effects using secondary data sources: the ISPOR Good Research Practices for Retrospective Database Analysis Task Force Report--Part I.

PubMed

Berger, Marc L; Mamdani, Muhammad; Atkins, David; Johnson, Michael L

2009-01-01

Health insurers, physicians, and patients worldwide need information on the comparative effectiveness and safety of prescription drugs in routine care. Nonrandomized studies of treatment effects using secondary databases may supplement the evidence based from randomized clinical trials and prospective observational studies. Recognizing the challenges to conducting valid retrospective epidemiologic and health services research studies, a Task Force was formed to develop a guidance document on state of the art approaches to frame research questions and report findings for these studies. The Task Force was commissioned and a Chair was selected by the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research Board of Directors in October 2007. This Report, the first of three reported in this issue of the journal, addressed issues of framing the research question and reporting and interpreting findings. The Task Force Report proposes four primary characteristics-relevance, specificity, novelty, and feasibility while defining the research question. Recommendations included: the practice of a priori specification of the research question; transparency of prespecified analytical plans, provision of justifications for any subsequent changes in analytical plan, and reporting the results of prespecified plans as well as results from significant modifications, structured abstracts to report findings with scientific neutrality; and reasoned interpretations of findings to help inform policy decisions. Comparative effectiveness research in the form of nonrandomized studies using secondary databases can be designed with rigorous elements and conducted with sophisticated statistical methods to improve causal inference of treatment effects. Standardized reporting and careful interpretation of results can aid policy and decision-making.

What is a good medical decision? A research agenda guided by perspectives from multiple stakeholders.

PubMed

Hamilton, Jada G; Lillie, Sarah E; Alden, Dana L; Scherer, Laura; Oser, Megan; Rini, Christine; Tanaka, Miho; Baleix, John; Brewster, Mikki; Craddock Lee, Simon; Goldstein, Mary K; Jacobson, Robert M; Myers, Ronald E; Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J; Waters, Erika A

2017-02-01

Informed and shared decision making are critical aspects of patient-centered care, which has contributed to an emphasis on decision support interventions to promote good medical decision making. However, researchers and healthcare providers have not reached a consensus on what defines a good decision, nor how to evaluate it. This position paper, informed by conference sessions featuring diverse stakeholders held at the 2015 Society of Behavioral Medicine and Society for Medical Decision Making annual meetings, describes key concepts that influence the decision making process itself and that may change what it means to make a good decision: interpersonal factors, structural constraints, affective influences, and values clarification methods. This paper also proposes specific research questions within each of these priority areas, with the goal of moving medical decision making research to a more comprehensive definition of a good medical decision, and enhancing the ability to measure and improve the decision making process.

An Evidence Framework for Off-Patent Pharmaceutical Review (EFOR) for Health Technology Assessment in Emerging Markets.

PubMed

Brixner, Diana; Kaló, Zoltán; Maniadakis, Nikos; Kim, Kyoo; Wijaya, Kalman

2018-03-29

This article introduces an Evidence Framework for Off-Patent Pharmaceutical Review (EFOR), which establishes value-based criteria in a template that manufacturers use to provide evidence showing how their products meet those criteria. Health authorities in emerging markets can then use the evidence presented in the EFOR to evaluate off-patent pharmaceuticals (OPPs) in a consistent, transparent, and evidence-based manner to support policy decisions, including pricing, reimbursement, formulary listing, and drug procurement. A literature search found no multi-criteria evidence framework for evaluating OPPs in emerging markets. An International Outcomes Research Board (IORB) of academia and industry experts conducted extensive research, meetings, and workshops to define high-priority criteria to incorporate into an evidence-based health technology assessment (HTA) tool using the multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) technique. The resulting framework was further tailored for country-specific needs in workshops in three emerging countries (Kazakhstan, Vietnam, and Indonesia). The IORB defined nine criteria four categories (Product, Manufacturing, Service, and Value Assessment), which OPP manufacturers can use to provide evidence for reimbursement and health policy decision making. Then the IORB developed the EFOR as a base case document, which can be adapted and used as a template by health authorities in emerging countries. Emerging countries have a significant need for an HTA tool that balances affordability with accurate evidence showing the value differentiation of OPPs. The value attributes in this setting often are different from those in developed markets, which emphasize new products and have high regulation and manufacturing standards. The EFOR is an easy-to-use, adaptable framework that emerging countries can use to increase the consistency, transparency, and effectiveness of drug decision making. The open source EFOR is available as Supplemental Materials. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Fundamental Flaws of Hormesis for Public Health Decisions

PubMed Central

Thayer, Kristina A.; Melnick, Ronald; Burns, Kathy; Davis, Devra; Huff, James

2005-01-01

Hormesis (defined operationally as low-dose stimulation, high-dose inhibition) is often used to promote the notion that while high-level exposures to toxic chemicals could be detrimental to human health, low-level exposures would be beneficial. Some proponents claim hormesis is an adaptive, generalizable phenomenon and argue that the default assumption for risk assessments should be that toxic chemicals induce stimulatory (i.e., “beneficial”) effects at low exposures. In many cases, nonmonotonic dose–response curves are called hormetic responses even in the absence of any mechanistic characterization of that response. Use of the term “hormesis,” with its associated descriptors, distracts from the broader and more important questions regarding the frequency and interpretation of nonmonotonic dose responses in biological systems. A better understanding of the biological basis and consequences of nonmonotonic dose–response curves is warranted for evaluating human health risks. The assumption that hormesis is generally adaptive is an oversimplification of complex biological processes. Even if certain low-dose effects were sometimes considered beneficial, this should not influence regulatory decisions to allow increased environmental exposures to toxic and carcinogenic agents, given factors such as interindividual differences in susceptibility and multiplicity in exposures. In this commentary we evaluate the hormesis hypothesis and potential adverse consequences of incorporating low-dose beneficial effects into public health decisions. PMID:16203233

The Value of Information in Distributed Decision Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-04

formulation, and then we describe the various results at- tained. 1 Mathematical description of Distributed Decision Network un- der Information...Constraints We now define a mathematical framework for networks. Let G = (V,E) be an undirected random network (graph) drawn from a known distribution pG, 1

7 CFR 275.2 - State agency responsibilities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

...: (i) Data collection through management evaluation (ME) reviews and quality control (QC) reviews; (ii... knowledge of either the household or the decision under review. Where there is prior knowledge, the reviewer must disqualify her/himself. Prior knowledge is defined as having: (1) Taken any part in the decision...

7 CFR 275.2 - State agency responsibilities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

...: (i) Data collection through management evaluation (ME) reviews and quality control (QC) reviews; (ii... knowledge of either the household or the decision under review. Where there is prior knowledge, the reviewer must disqualify her/himself. Prior knowledge is defined as having: (1) Taken any part in the decision...

7 CFR 275.2 - State agency responsibilities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

...: (i) Data collection through management evaluation (ME) reviews and quality control (QC) reviews; (ii... knowledge of either the household or the decision under review. Where there is prior knowledge, the reviewer must disqualify her/himself. Prior knowledge is defined as having: (1) Taken any part in the decision...

7 CFR 275.2 - State agency responsibilities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

...: (i) Data collection through management evaluation (ME) reviews and quality control (QC) reviews; (ii... knowledge of either the household or the decision under review. Where there is prior knowledge, the reviewer must disqualify her/himself. Prior knowledge is defined as having: (1) Taken any part in the decision...

7 CFR 275.2 - State agency responsibilities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

...: (i) Data collection through management evaluation (ME) reviews and quality control (QC) reviews; (ii... knowledge of either the household or the decision under review. Where there is prior knowledge, the reviewer must disqualify her/himself. Prior knowledge is defined as having: (1) Taken any part in the decision...

20 CFR 220.35 - Introduction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... term is defined in the Social Security Act. In making these decisions the Board must apply the... Services in making disability decisions under the Social Security Act. Regulations of the Social Security... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Introduction. 220.35 Section 220.35 Employees...

Deciding on PSA-screening - Quality of current consumer information on the Internet.

PubMed

Korfage, Ida J; van den Bergh, Roderick C N; Essink-Bot, Marie-Louise

2010-11-01

Given that screening for prostate cancer has the potential to reduce prostate cancer mortality at the expense of considerable overdiagnosis and overtreatment, the availability of core consumer information - correct, balanced and supportive of autonomous decision-making - is a must. We assessed the quality of consumer information available through the Internet per November 2009 and its possible contribution to informed decision-making by potential screenees. Consumer information on PSA-screening was sought through the Internet in November 2009. Materials had to be targeted at potential consumers, offered by not-for-profit organisations, released in 2005 or after, in English or Dutch. Per material 2 of the authors assessed independently from each other whether standardised pre-defined topics were addressed, whether the content was correct and which approach was taken towards the decision-making process about uptake. Twenty-three materials were included, of which 11 were released (shortly) after the results of 2 large randomized-controlled trials (RCTs) that evaluated the effectiveness of screening for prostate cancer had been published in March 2009. That a PSA-test result can be abnormal because of non-cancerous conditions (false positive) and that it may miss prostate cancer (false negative) was not addressed in 2/23 and 8/23 materials, respectively. The risk of overdiagnosis and overtreatment was not mentioned in 6 out of 23. PSA-screening was presented as a usual thing to do in some materials, whereas other materials emphasised the voluntary nature of PSA-screening ('it is your decision'). The content of 19/23 materials was considered sufficiently informative according to the pre-defined criteria, 12/23 materials were considered supportive of informed decision-making by men. Most materials of not-for-profit organizations supplied adequate information about PSA-screening, whilst the degree of persuasion towards uptake reflected variations in opinions on men's autonomy regarding their own health. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

WHO policy development processes for a new vaccine: case study of malaria vaccines.

PubMed

Milstien, Julie; Cárdenas, Vicky; Cheyne, James; Brooks, Alan

2010-06-24

Recommendations from the World Health Organization (WHO) are crucial to inform developing country decisions to use, or not, a new intervention. This article analysed the WHO policy development process to predict its course for a malaria vaccine. The decision-making processes for one malaria intervention and four vaccines were classified through (1) consultations with staff and expert advisors to WHO's Global Malaria Programme (GMP) and Immunization, Vaccines and Biologicals Department (IVB); (2) analysis of the procedures and recommendations of the major policy-making bodies of these groups; (3) interviews with staff of partnerships working toward new vaccine availability; and (4) review and analyses of evidence informing key policy decisions. WHO policy formulation related to use of intermittent preventive treatment in infancy (IPTi) and the following vaccine interventions: Haemophilus influenzae type b conjugate vaccine (Hib), pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV), rotavirus vaccine (RV), and human papillomavirus vaccine (HPV), five interventions which had relatively recently been through systematic WHO policy development processes as currently constituted, was analysed. Required information was categorized in three areas defined by a recent WHO publication on development of guidelines: safety and efficacy in relevant populations, implications for costs and population health, and localization of data to specific epidemiological situations. Data needs for a malaria vaccine include safety; the demonstration of efficacy in a range of epidemiological settings in the context of other malaria prevention interventions; and information on potential rebound in which disease increases subsequent to the intervention. In addition, a malaria vaccine would require attention to additional factors, such as costs and cost-effectiveness, supply and demand, impact of use on other interventions, and distribution issues. Although policy issues may be more complex for future vaccines, the lead-time between the date of product regulatory approval and a recommendation for its use in developing countries is decreasing. This study presents approaches to define in advance core data needs to support evidence-based decisions, to further decrease this lead-time, accelerating the availability of a malaria vaccine. Specific policy areas for which information should be collected are defined, including studying its use within the context of other malaria interventions.

Research to Inform Nutrient Thresholds and Prioritization of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The information in this presentation focuses on SSWR's 4.02 project, which will advance the science needed to inform decisions to prioritize watersheds and nutrient sources for nutrient management and define appropriate nutrient levels for the nation’s waters, two important elements of EPA’s framework for managing nutrient pollution. The information in this presentation focuses on SSWR's 4.02 project, which will advance the science needed to inform decisions to prioritize watersheds and nutrient sources for nutrient management and define appropriate nutrient levels for the nation’s waters, two important elements of EPA’s framework for managing nutrient pollution.

Ethical, legal, and social issues: our children's future.

PubMed

Gilbert, Steven G

2005-08-01

A convergence of issues suggests that protecting child health is not so much a matter of research, but rather a matter of policy and advocacy. First, we have well-articulated views of a vision for child health. Second, we have experience and toxicological research findings demonstrating the adverse health effects of hazardous chemicals on children and recognize that children are more sensitive than adults to chemical exposures. Results from toxicology research have motivated many regulatory and legal actions, and public policy decisions, including the banning of some pesticides, reducing exposures in the workplace, and lowering of acceptable blood lead levels in children. We also know that childhood disabilities from chemical exposure during developmental are often not treatable and therefore must be prevented. Finally, we have an increasingly well-defined framework for discussing social and ethical responsibility to our children. New discoveries in the basic biological and toxicological sciences have challenged our bioethical thinking and societal decision-making. This paper will explore the ethical, legal, and social issues raised by the toxicological sciences first by examining some hard lesson learned about childhood effects of chemicals and then by examining the difficult policy and research decisions that must be made as we address our need for additional information about the health effects of chemicals on adults and children and the impact of having this information. The precautionary principle will be considered as an alternative decision-making approach as well as exploring the concept of the citizen toxicologist (CT). As Garrett Hardin pointed out many years ago, the problems we face often have no technical solutions, but rather require a policy-based approach. This paper will be of interest to the public and health professionals concerned about the broader impact of toxicological research on bioethical and societal decision-making.

Moral Rationality and Intuition: An Exploration of Relationships between the Defining Issues Test and the Moral Foundations Questionnaire

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glover, Rebecca J.; Natesan, Prathiba; Wang, Jie; Rohr, Danielle; McAfee-Etheridge, Lauri; Booker, Dana D.; Bishop, James; Lee, David; Kildare, Cory; Wu, Minwei

2014-01-01

Explorations of relationships between Haidt's Moral Foundations Questionnaire (MFQ) and indices of moral decision-making assessed by the Defining Issues Test have been limited to correlational analyses. This study used Harm, Fairness, Ingroup, Authority and Purity to predict overall moral judgment and individual Defining Issues Test-2 (DIT-2)…

Computational Complexity and Human Decision-Making.

PubMed

Bossaerts, Peter; Murawski, Carsten

2017-12-01

The rationality principle postulates that decision-makers always choose the best action available to them. It underlies most modern theories of decision-making. The principle does not take into account the difficulty of finding the best option. Here, we propose that computational complexity theory (CCT) provides a framework for defining and quantifying the difficulty of decisions. We review evidence showing that human decision-making is affected by computational complexity. Building on this evidence, we argue that most models of decision-making, and metacognition, are intractable from a computational perspective. To be plausible, future theories of decision-making will need to take into account both the resources required for implementing the computations implied by the theory, and the resource constraints imposed on the decision-maker by biology. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Integrated Web-based Decision Support System in Disaster Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aye, Z. C.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Derron, M. H.

2012-04-01

Nowadays, web based decision support systems (DSS) play an essential role in disaster risk management because of their supporting abilities which help the decision makers to improve their performances and make better decisions without needing to solve complex problems while reducing human resources and time. Since the decision making process is one of the main factors which highly influence the damages and losses of society, it is extremely important to make right decisions at right time by combining available risk information with advanced web technology of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Decision Support System (DSS). This paper presents an integrated web-based decision support system (DSS) of how to use risk information in risk management efficiently and effectively while highlighting the importance of a decision support system in the field of risk reduction. Beyond the conventional systems, it provides the users to define their own strategies starting from risk identification to the risk reduction, which leads to an integrated approach in risk management. In addition, it also considers the complexity of changing environment from different perspectives and sectors with diverse stakeholders' involvement in the development process. The aim of this platform is to contribute a part towards the natural hazards and geosciences society by developing an open-source web platform where the users can analyze risk profiles and make decisions by performing cost benefit analysis, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) with the support of others tools and resources provided. There are different access rights to the system depending on the user profiles and their responsibilities. The system is still under development and the current version provides maps viewing, basic GIS functionality, assessment of important infrastructures (e.g. bridge, hospital, etc.) affected by landslides and visualization of the impact-probability matrix in terms of socio-economic dimension.

The impact of the Rasouli decision: a Survey of Canadian intensivists.

PubMed

Cape, David; Fox-Robichaud, Alison; Turgeon, Alexis F; Seely, Andrew; Hall, Richard; Burns, Karen; Singal, Rohit K; Dodek, Peter; Bagshaw, Sean; Sibbald, Robert; Downar, James

2016-03-01

In a landmark 2013 decision, the Supreme Court of Canada (SCC) ruled that the withdrawal of life support in certain circumstances is a treatment requiring patient or substitute decision maker (SDM) consent. How intensive care unit (ICU) physicians perceive this ruling is unknown. To determine physician knowledge of and attitudes towards the SCC decision, as well as the self-reported changes in practice attributed to the decision. We surveyed intensivists at university hospitals across Canada. We used a knowledge test and Likert-scale questions to measure respondent knowledge of and attitudes towards the ruling. We used vignettes to assess decision making in cases of intractable physician-SDM conflict over the management of patients with very poor prognoses. We compared management choices pre-SCC decision versus post-SCC decision versus the subjective, respondent-defined most appropriate choice. Responses were compared across predefined subgroups. We performed qualitative analysis on free-text responses. We received 82 responses (response rate=42%). Respondents reported providing high levels of self-defined inappropriate treatment. Although most respondents reported no change in practice, there was a significant overall shift towards higher intensity and less subjectively appropriate management after the SCC decision. Attitudes to the SCC decision and approaches to disputes over end-of-life (EoL) care in the ICU were highly variable. There were no significant differences among predefined subgroups. Many Canadian ICU physicians report providing a higher intensity of treatment, and less subjectively appropriate treatment, in situations of dispute over EoL care after the Supreme Court of Canada's ruling in Cuthbertson versus Rasouli. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

A game theory perspective on environmental assessment: What games are played and what does this tell us about decision making rationality and legitimacy?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bond, Alan; Research Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management, North-West University; Pope, Jenny

Game theory provides a useful theoretical framework to examine the decision process operating in the context of environmental assessment, and to examine the rationality and legitimacy of decision-making subject to Environmental Assessment (EA). The research uses a case study of the Environmental Impact Assessment and Sustainability Appraisal processes undertaken in England. To these are applied an analytical framework, based on the concept of decision windows to identify the decisions to be assessed. The conditions for legitimacy are defined, based on game theory, in relation to the timing of decision information, the behaviour type (competitive, reciprocal, equity) exhibited by the decisionmore » maker, and the level of public engagement; as, together, these control the type of rationality which can be brought to bear on the decision. Instrumental rationality is based on self-interest of individuals, whereas deliberative rationality seeks broader consensus and is more likely to underpin legitimate decisions. The results indicate that the Sustainability Appraisal process, conducted at plan level, is better than EIA, conducted at project level, but still fails to provide conditions that facilitate legitimacy. Game theory also suggests that Sustainability Appraisal is likely to deliver ‘least worst’ outcomes rather than best outcomes when the goals of the assessment process are considered; this may explain the propensity of such ‘least worst’ decisions in practise. On the basis of what can be learned from applying this game theory perspective, it is suggested that environmental assessment processes need to be redesigned and better integrated into decision making in order to guarantee the legitimacy of the decisions made. - Highlights: • Decision legitimacy is defined in terms of game theory. • Game theory is applied to EIA and SA decision windows. • Game theory suggests least worst outcomes prevail. • SA is more likely to be perceived legitimate than EIA.« less

Masked translation priming effects with low proficient bilinguals.

PubMed

Dimitropoulou, Maria; Duñabeitia, Jon Andoni; Carreiras, Manuel

2011-02-01

Non-cognate masked translation priming lexical decision studies with unbalanced bilinguals suggest that masked translation priming effects are asymmetric as a function of the translation direction (significant effects only in the dominant [L1] to nondominant [L2] language translation direction). However, in contrast to the predictions of most current accounts of masked translation priming effects, bidirectional effects have recently been reported with a group of low proficient bilinguals Duyck & Warlop 2009 (Experimental Psychology 56:173-179). In a series of masked translation priming lexical decision experiments we examined whether the same pattern of effects would emerge with late and low proficient Greek (L1)-Spanish (L2) bilinguals. Contrary to the results obtained by Duyck and Warlop, and in line with the results found in most studies in the masked priming literature, significant translation priming effects emerged only when the bilinguals performed the task with L1 primes and L2 targets. The existence of the masked translation priming asymmetry with low proficient bilinguals suggests that cross-linguistic automatic lexico-semantic links may be established very early in the process of L2 acquisition. These findings could help to define models of bilingualism that consider L2 proficiency level to be a determining factor.

Health economics, equity, and efficiency: are we almost there?

PubMed

Ferraz, Marcos Bosi

2015-01-01

Health care is a highly complex, dynamic, and creative sector of the economy. While health economics has to continue its efforts to improve its methods and tools to better inform decisions, the application needs to be aligned with the insights and models of other social sciences disciplines. Decisions may be guided by four concept models based on ethical and distributive justice: libertarian, communitarian, egalitarian, and utilitarian. The societal agreement on one model or a defined mix of models is critical to avoid inequity and unfair decisions in a public and/or private insurance-based health care system. The excess use of methods and tools without fully defining the basic goals and philosophical principles of the health care system and without evaluating the fitness of these measures to reaching these goals may not contribute to an efficient improvement of population health.

Health economics, equity, and efficiency: are we almost there?

PubMed Central

Ferraz, Marcos Bosi

2015-01-01

Health care is a highly complex, dynamic, and creative sector of the economy. While health economics has to continue its efforts to improve its methods and tools to better inform decisions, the application needs to be aligned with the insights and models of other social sciences disciplines. Decisions may be guided by four concept models based on ethical and distributive justice: libertarian, communitarian, egalitarian, and utilitarian. The societal agreement on one model or a defined mix of models is critical to avoid inequity and unfair decisions in a public and/or private insurance-based health care system. The excess use of methods and tools without fully defining the basic goals and philosophical principles of the health care system and without evaluating the fitness of these measures to reaching these goals may not contribute to an efficient improvement of population health. PMID:25709481

Clinician and cancer patient views on patient participation in treatment decision-making: a quantitative and qualitative exploration

PubMed Central

Pieterse, A H; Baas-Thijssen, M C M; Marijnen, C A M; Stiggelbout, A M

2008-01-01

Patient participation in treatment decision-making is being increasingly advocated, although cancer treatments are often guideline-driven. Trade-offs between benefits and side effects underlying guidelines are made by clinicians. Evidence suggests that clinicians are inaccurate at predicting patient values. The aim was to assess what role oncologists and cancer patients prefer in deciding about treatment, and how they view patient participation in treatment decision-making. Seventy disease-free cancer patients and 60 oncologists (surgical, radiation, and medical) were interviewed about their role preferences using the Control Preferences Scale (CPS) and about their views on patient participation using closed- and open-ended questions. Almost all participants preferred treatment decisions to be the outcome of a shared process. Clinicians viewed participation more often as reaching an agreement, whereas 23% of patients defined participation exclusively as being informed. Of the participants, ⩾81% thought not all patients are able to participate and ⩾74% thought clinicians are not always able to weigh the pros and cons of treatment for patients, especially not quality as compared with length of life. Clinicians seemed reluctant to share probability information on the likely impact of adjuvant treatment. Clinicians should acknowledge the legitimacy of patients' values in treatment decisions. Guidelines should recommend elicitation of patient values at specific decision points. PMID:18781148

The economic case for precision medicine.

PubMed

Gavan, Sean P; Thompson, Alexander J; Payne, Katherine

2018-01-01

Introduction : The advancement of precision medicine into routine clinical practice has been highlighted as an agenda for national and international health care policy. A principle barrier to this advancement is in meeting requirements of the payer or reimbursement agency for health care. This special report aims to explain the economic case for precision medicine, by accounting for the explicit objectives defined by decision-makers responsible for the allocation of limited health care resources. Areas covered : The framework of cost-effectiveness analysis, a method of economic evaluation, is used to describe how precision medicine can, in theory, exploit identifiable patient-level heterogeneity to improve population health outcomes and the relative cost-effectiveness of health care. Four case studies are used to illustrate potential challenges when demonstrating the economic case for a precision medicine in practice. Expert commentary : The economic case for a precision medicine should be considered at an early stage during its research and development phase. Clinical and economic evidence can be generated iteratively and should be in alignment with the objectives and requirements of decision-makers. Programmes of further research, to demonstrate the economic case of a precision medicine, can be prioritized by the extent that they reduce the uncertainty expressed by decision-makers.

The economic case for precision medicine

PubMed Central

Gavan, Sean P.; Thompson, Alexander J.; Payne, Katherine

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Introduction: The advancement of precision medicine into routine clinical practice has been highlighted as an agenda for national and international health care policy. A principle barrier to this advancement is in meeting requirements of the payer or reimbursement agency for health care. This special report aims to explain the economic case for precision medicine, by accounting for the explicit objectives defined by decision-makers responsible for the allocation of limited health care resources. Areas covered: The framework of cost-effectiveness analysis, a method of economic evaluation, is used to describe how precision medicine can, in theory, exploit identifiable patient-level heterogeneity to improve population health outcomes and the relative cost-effectiveness of health care. Four case studies are used to illustrate potential challenges when demonstrating the economic case for a precision medicine in practice. Expert commentary: The economic case for a precision medicine should be considered at an early stage during its research and development phase. Clinical and economic evidence can be generated iteratively and should be in alignment with the objectives and requirements of decision-makers. Programmes of further research, to demonstrate the economic case of a precision medicine, can be prioritized by the extent that they reduce the uncertainty expressed by decision-makers. PMID:29682615

Comparative Issues and Methods in Organizational Diagnosis. Report II. The Decision Tree Approach.

DTIC Science & Technology

organizational diagnosis . The advantages and disadvantages of the decision-tree approach generally, and in this study specifically, are examined. A pre-test, using a civilian sample of 174 work groups with Survey of Organizations data, was conducted to assess various decision-tree classification criteria, in terms of their similarity to the distance function used by Bowers and Hausser (1977). The results suggested the use of a large developmental sample, which should result in more distinctly defined boundary lines between classification profiles. Also, the decision matrix

Physiological pharmacokinetic modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Menzel, D.B.

1987-10-01

Risk assessment often defines the approach and the degree of regulation, decisions in risk assessment often have major regulatory impacts. Chemicals that have economic value or that were byproducts of the chemical industry are common subjects of such decisions. Regrettably, decisions related to risk assessment, science, or regulatory matters will frequently be made with incomplete information and on the basis of intuitive reasoning. Statistical fits to experimental data have been used to estimate risks in humans from experimental data in animals. These treatments have not taken into account the obvious differences in physiology, biochemistry, and size between aniamals and humans.more » In this article the use of mathematical models based on continuous relationships, rather than quantal events, are discussed. The mathematical models can be used to adjust the dose in the quantal response model, but the emphasis will be on how these mathematical models are conceived and what implications their use holds for risk assessment. Experiments with humans that produce toxic effects cannot be done. Data for human toxicity will always be lacking.« less

Application of a Design Morphology to the MX/OCC Definition of a Fault Detection and Dispatch System.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-09-01

morphology appears to be effective on an unstructured problem and provides a useful vehicle for clearly defining the functions and tasks that meet the needs...approach used is a structured decision process which was successfully demonstrated in FY 78 on relatively simple mechanical equipment and has now been...including achievement of practical conclusions from the large scale optimization procedures. This design morphology provided a useful vehicle for

A Visual Aid to Decision-Making for People with Intellectual Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bailey, Rebecca; Willner, Paul; Dymond, Simon

2011-01-01

Previous studies have shown that people with mild intellectual disabilities have difficulty in "weighing-up" information, defined as integrating information from two different sources for the purpose of reaching a decision. This was demonstrated in two very different procedures, temporal discounting and a scenario-based financial…

Advisory: Definitions, Descriptions, Decisions, Directions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Galassi, John P.; Gulledge, Suzanne A.; Cox, Nancy D.

Advisory groups have played an essential role in improving the school climate and conditions for young adolescents in schools. How middle school decision makers go about the process of designing or re-designing an advisory program needs to be considered. A discussion is presented of the background information that helps define advisories. It…

Decision Making Perspectives of Young Children (K-5).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rogers, Linda J.; McDonald, Linda L.

1999-01-01

Applies Blumer's theory of symbolic interactionism to explore how normal children make meaning of their decision making world, both of their own acts and the labyrinthine world adults structure for them. Schema/narratives on friendship, sports, adults, and school reveal knowledge making strategies defined by immediate experiences and a capacity to…

A Statistical Decision Model for Periodical Selection for a Specialized Information Center

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dym, Eleanor D.; Shirey, Donald L.

1973-01-01

An experiment is described which attempts to define a quantitative methodology for the identification and evaluation of all possibly relevant periodical titles containing toxicological-biological information. A statistical decision model was designed and employed, along with yes/no criteria questions, a training technique and a quality control…

40 CFR 304.33 - Arbitral decision and public comment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

.... 304.33 Section 304.33 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) SUPERFUND... RECOVERY CLAIMS Hearings Before the Arbitrator § 304.33 Arbitral decision and public comment. (a) The... jurisdiction as defined by § 304.20 of this part, and shall, if such issues have been jointly submitted by the...

Leveraging the geospatial advantage

Treesearch

Ben Butler; Andrew Bailey

2013-01-01

The Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) web-based application leverages geospatial data to inform strategic decisions on wildland fires. A specialized data team, working within the Wildland Fire Management Research Development and Application group (WFM RD&A), assembles authoritative national-level data sets defining values to be protected. The use of...

Applying Generalizability Theory for Making Quantitative RTI Progress-Monitoring Decisions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fan, Chung-Hau; Hansmann, Paul R.

2015-01-01

Language in the Individuals With Disabilities Education Improvement Act (IDEIA) allows the use of response-to-intervention (RTI) methodology in the identification of specific learning disabilities. However, there is no consensus on decision rules using curriculum-based measurement of oral reading fluency (CBM-R) for defining responsiveness. The…

Measurement in Comparative Effectiveness Research

PubMed Central

Chubak, Jessica; Rutter, Carolyn M.; Kamineni, Aruna; Johnson, Eric A.; Stout, Natasha K.; Weiss, Noel S.; Doria-Rose, V. Paul; Doubeni, Chyke A.; Buist, Diana S.M.

2013-01-01

Comparative effectiveness research (CER) on preventive services can shape policy and help patients, their providers, and public health practitioners select regimens and programs for disease prevention. Patients and providers need information about the relative effectiveness of various regimens they may choose. Decision makers need information about the relative effectiveness of various programs to offer or recommend. The goal of this paper is to define and differentiate measures of relative effectiveness of regimens and programs for disease prevention. Cancer screening is used to demonstrate how these measures differ in an example of two hypothetic screening regimens and programs. Conceptually and algebraically defined measures of relative regimen and program effectiveness are also presented. The measures evaluate preventive services that range from individual tests through organized, population-wide prevention programs. Examples illustrate how effective screening regimens may not result in effective screening programs and how measures can vary across subgroups and settings. Both regimen and program relative effectiveness measures assess benefits of prevention services in real-world settings, but each addresses different scientific and policy questions. As the body of CER grows, a common lexicon for various measures of relative effectiveness becomes increasingly important to facilitate communication and shared understanding among researchers, healthcare providers, patients, and policymakers. PMID:23597816

What counts as a decision? Predictors of perceived decision making.

PubMed

Chapman, G B; Niedermayer, L Y

2001-09-01

We examined lay perceptions of what counts as a decision. Eighty-six subjects read 10 scenarios that described clear decisions (e.g., choosing a graduate school), clear "nondecisions" (e.g., an accidental wrong turn), or ambiguous actions (e.g., eating a donut when on a diet or allowing someone else to make the decision). The subjects rated each scenario as to whether the actor had made a decision and also rated six other attributes. The scenarios were rated as clearly illustrating a decision if the actor engaged in a lot of thought and did not act reflexively. Consideration of consequences and having alternatives were moderately related to decision ratings, whereas having self-control problems and the influence of physiological drives showed little relationship with decision ratings. Thus, lay concepts of decision making differ from decision theory in that thoughtful, intentional behavior is more important in defining a decision than are decision theoretic components, such as alternatives and consequences.

Evaluation of Nursing Documentation Completion of Stroke Patients in the Emergency Department: A Pre-Post Analysis Using Flowsheet Templates and Clinical Decision Support.

PubMed

Richardson, Karen J; Sengstack, Patricia; Doucette, Jeffrey N; Hammond, William E; Schertz, Matthew; Thompson, Julie; Johnson, Constance

2016-02-01

The primary aim of this performance improvement project was to determine whether the electronic health record implementation of stroke-specific nursing documentation flowsheet templates and clinical decision support alerts improved the nursing documentation of eligible stroke patients in seven stroke-certified emergency departments. Two system enhancements were introduced into the electronic record in an effort to improve nursing documentation: disease-specific documentation flowsheets and clinical decision support alerts. Using a pre-post design, project measures included six stroke management goals as defined by the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke and three clinical decision support measures based on entry of orders used to trigger documentation reminders for nursing: (1) the National Institutes of Health's Stroke Scale, (2) neurological checks, and (3) dysphagia screening. Data were reviewed 6 months prior (n = 2293) and 6 months following the intervention (n = 2588). Fisher exact test was used for statistical analysis. Statistical significance was found for documentation of five of the six stroke management goals, although effect sizes were small. Customizing flowsheets to meet the needs of nursing workflow showed improvement in the completion of documentation. The effects of the decision support alerts on the completeness of nursing documentation were not statistically significant (likely due to lack of order entry). For example, an order for the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale was entered only 10.7% of the time, which meant no alert would fire for nursing in the postintervention group. Future work should focus on decision support alerts that trigger reminders for clinicians to place relevant orders for this population.

Defining Priorities to Improve Patient Experience in Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer.

PubMed

Garg, Tullika; Connors, Jill Nault; Ladd, Ilene G; Bogaczyk, Tyler L; Larson, Sharon L

2018-01-20

Although approximately 75% of bladder cancers are non-muscle invasive (NMIBC) at diagnosis, most research tends to focus on invasive disease (e.g., experiences related to radical cystectomy and urinary diversion). There is a lack of studies on quality of life, and especially qualitative research, in bladder cancer generally. As a result, relatively little is known about the experiences and needs of NMIBC patients. To understand patient experience, define care priorities, and identify targets for care improvement in NMIBC across the cancer continuum. Through focus groups, patients treated for NMIBC (stage

[Decision process in a multidisciplinary cancer team with limited evidence].

PubMed

Lassalle, R; Marold, J; Schöbel, M; Manzey, D; Bohn, S; Dietz, A; Boehm, A

2014-04-01

The Head and Neck Cancer Tumor Board is a multispeciality comprehensive conference that brings together experts with different backgrounds to make group decisions about the appropriate treatment. Due to the complexity of the patient cases and the collaboration of different medical disciplines most of these decisions have to be made under uncertainty, i. e., with-out knowing all relevant factors and without being quite sure about the outcome. To develop effective team decision making under uncertainty, it is necessary to understand how medical experts perceive and handle uncertainties. The aim of this field study was to develop a knowledge base by exploring additionally the factors that influence group decision making processes. A structured nonparticipant observational study was employed to address the research goal. Video data were analyzed by 2 independent observers using an observation checklist. A total of 20 videotaped case discussions were studied. Observations were complemented by a questionnaire gathering subjective evaluations of board members about the process and quality of their decisions (N=15). The results show that uncertainty is recognized by board members. Reasons for uncertainty may stem from the complexity of the cases (e. g. therapy options) or the assessment from different disciplines coming together at the board. With respect to handling uncertainty and guaranteeing an optimal decision making process potential for improvement could be defined. This pertains to the handling of different levels of competence, the promotion of a positive discussion culture as well as structuring of the decision making process. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Medication decision making and patient outcomes in GP, nurse and pharmacist prescriber consultations.

PubMed

Weiss, Marjorie C; Platt, Jo; Riley, Ruth; Chewning, Betty; Taylor, Gordon; Horrocks, Susan; Taylor, Andrea

2015-09-01

Aim The aims of this study were twofold: (a) to explore whether specific components of shared decision making were present in consultations involving nurse prescribers (NPs), pharmacist prescribers (PPs) and general practitioners (GPs) and (b) to relate these to self-reported patient outcomes including satisfaction, adherence and patient perceptions of practitioner empathy. There are a range of ways for defining and measuring the process of concordance, or shared decision making as it relates to decisions about medicines. As a result, demonstrating a convincing link between shared decision making and patient benefit is challenging. In the United Kingdom, nurses and pharmacists can now take on a prescribing role, engaging in shared decision making. Given the different professional backgrounds of GPs, NPs and PPs, this study sought to explore the process of shared decision making across these three prescriber groups. Analysis of audio-recordings of consultations in primary care in South England between patients and GPs, NPs and PPs. Analysis of patient questionnaires completed post consultation. Findings A total of 532 consultations were audio-recorded with 20 GPs, 19 NPs and 12 PPs. Prescribing decisions occurred in 421 (79%). Patients were given treatment options in 21% (102/482) of decisions, the prescriber elicited the patient's treatment preference in 18% (88/482) and the patient expressed a treatment preference in 24% (118/482) of decisions. PPs were more likely to ask for the patient's preference about their treatment regimen (χ 2=6.6, P=0.036, Cramer's V=0.12) than either NPs or GPs. Of the 275 patient questionnaires, 192(70%) could be matched with a prescribing decision. NP patients had higher satisfaction levels than patients of GPs or PPs. More time describing treatment options was associated with increased satisfaction, adherence and greater perceived practitioner empathy. While defining, measuring and enabling the process of shared decision making remains challenging, it may have patient benefit.

The Multi-Attribute Group Decision-Making Method Based on Interval Grey Trapezoid Fuzzy Linguistic Variables.

PubMed

Yin, Kedong; Wang, Pengyu; Li, Xuemei

2017-12-13

With respect to multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) problems, where attribute values take the form of interval grey trapezoid fuzzy linguistic variables (IGTFLVs) and the weights (including expert and attribute weight) are unknown, improved grey relational MAGDM methods are proposed. First, the concept of IGTFLV, the operational rules, the distance between IGTFLVs, and the projection formula between the two IGTFLV vectors are defined. Second, the expert weights are determined by using the maximum proximity method based on the projection values between the IGTFLV vectors. The attribute weights are determined by the maximum deviation method and the priorities of alternatives are determined by improved grey relational analysis. Finally, an example is given to prove the effectiveness of the proposed method and the flexibility of IGTFLV.

Integrating Efficiency of Industry Processes and Practices Alongside Technology Effectiveness in Space Transportation Cost Modeling and Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zapata, Edgar

2012-01-01

This paper presents past and current work in dealing with indirect industry and NASA costs when providing cost estimation or analysis for NASA projects and programs. Indirect costs, when defined as those costs in a project removed from the actual hardware or software hands-on labor; makes up most of the costs of today's complex large scale NASA space/industry projects. This appears to be the case across phases from research into development into production and into the operation of the system. Space transportation is the case of interest here. Modeling and cost estimation as a process rather than a product will be emphasized. Analysis as a series of belief systems in play among decision makers and decision factors will also be emphasized to provide context.

Ecohydrology and Its Relation to Integrated Groundwater Management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Randall J.; Hayashi, Masaki; Batelaan, Okke

2016-01-01

In the twentieth century, groundwater characterization focused primarily on easily measured hydraulic metrics of water storage and flows. Twenty-first century concepts of groundwater availability, however, encompass other factors having societal value, such as ecological well-being. Effective ecohydrological science is a nexus of fundamental understanding derived from two scientific disciplines: (1) ecology, where scale, thresholds, feedbacks and tipping points for societal questions form the basis for the ecologic characterization, and (2) hydrology, where the characteristics, magnitude, and timing of water flows are characterized for a defined system of interest. In addition to ecohydrology itself, integrated groundwater management requires input from resource managers to understand which areas of the vast world of ecohydrology are important for decision making. Expectations of acceptable uncertainty, or even what ecohydrological outputs have utility, are often not well articulated within societal decision making frameworks, or within the science community itself. Similarly, “acceptable levels of impact” are difficult to define. Three examples are given to demonstrate the use of ecohydrological considerations for long-term sustainability of groundwater resources and their related ecosystem function. Such examples illustrate the importance of accommodating ecohydrogeological aspects into integrated groundwater management of the twenty-first century, regardless of society, climate, or setting.

Detecting failure of climate predictions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runge, Michael C.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Barrett, Andrew P.; McDonald-Madden, Eve

2016-01-01

The practical consequences of climate change challenge society to formulate responses that are more suited to achieving long-term objectives, even if those responses have to be made in the face of uncertainty1, 2. Such a decision-analytic focus uses the products of climate science as probabilistic predictions about the effects of management policies3. Here we present methods to detect when climate predictions are failing to capture the system dynamics. For a single model, we measure goodness of fit based on the empirical distribution function, and define failure when the distribution of observed values significantly diverges from the modelled distribution. For a set of models, the same statistic can be used to provide relative weights for the individual models, and we define failure when there is no linear weighting of the ensemble models that produces a satisfactory match to the observations. Early detection of failure of a set of predictions is important for improving model predictions and the decisions based on them. We show that these methods would have detected a range shift in northern pintail 20 years before it was actually discovered, and are increasingly giving more weight to those climate models that forecast a September ice-free Arctic by 2055.

Defining an end state for CO2 sequestration and EOR in North America

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Friedmann, S J

2006-04-20

CO{sub 2} capture and storage (CCS) presents a challenge to long-range planners, economic interests, regulators, law-makers, and other stakeholders and decision makers. To improve and optimize the use of limited resources and finances, it is important to define an end state for CCS. This ends state should be defined around desired goals and reasonable timelines for execution. While this definition may have substantial technology, policy or economic implications, it need not be prescriptive in terms of technology pathway, policy mechanism, or economic targets. To illustrate these concerns, this paper will present a credible vision of what an end state formore » North American might look like. From that, examples of key investment and planning decisions are provided to illustrate the value of end-state characterization.« less

Diabetes Information Technology: Designing Informatics Systems to Catalyze Change in Clinical Care

PubMed Central

Lester, William T.; Zai, Adrian H.; Chueh, Henry C.; Grant, Richard W.

2008-01-01

Current computerized reminder and decision support systems intended to improve diabetes care have had a limited effect on clinical outcomes. Increasing pressures on health care networks to meet standards of diabetes care have created an environment where information technology systems for diabetes management are often created under duress, appended to existing clinical systems, and poorly integrated into the existing workflow. After defining the components of diabetes disease management, the authors present an eight-step conceptual framework to guide the development of more effective diabetes information technology systems for translating clinical information into clinical action. PMID:19885355

Effective organizational solutions for implementation of DBMS software packages

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, D.

1984-01-01

The space telescope management information system development effort is a guideline for discussing effective organizational solutions used in implementing DBMS software. Focus is on the importance of strategic planning. The value of constructing an information system architecture to conform to the organization's managerial needs, the need for a senior decision maker, dealing with shifting user requirements, and the establishment of a reliable working relationship with the DBMS vendor are examined. Requirements for a schedule to demonstrate progress against a defined timeline and the importance of continued monitoring for production software control, production data control, and software enhancements are also discussed.

Economic evaluations of non-communicable disease interventions in developing countries: a critical review of the evidence base

PubMed Central

Mulligan, Jo-Ann; Walker, Damian; Fox-Rushby, Julia

2006-01-01

Background Demographic projections suggest a major increase in non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality over the next two decades in developing countries. In a climate of scarce resources, policy-makers need to know which interventions represent value for money. The prohibitive cost of performing multiple economic evaluations has generated interest in transferring the results of studies from one setting to another. This paper aims to bridge the gap in the current literature by critically evaluating the available published data on economic evaluations of NCD interventions in developing countries. Methods We identified and reviewed the methodological quality of 32 economic evaluations of NCD interventions in developing countries. Developing countries were defined according to the World Bank classification for low- and lower middle-income countries. We defined NCDs as the 12 categories listed in the 1993 World Bank report Investing in Health. English language literature was searched for the period January 1984 and January 2003 inclusive in Medline, Science Citation Index, HealthStar, NHS Economic Evaluation Database and Embase using medical subheading terms and free text searches. We then assessed the quality of studies according to a set of pre-defined technical criteria. Results We found that the quality of studies was poor and resource allocation decisions made by local and global policy-makers on the basis of this evidence could be misleading. Furthermore we have identified some clear gaps in the literature, particularly around injuries and strategies for tackling the consequences of the emerging tobacco epidemic. Conclusion In the face of poor evidence the role of so-called generalised cost-effectiveness analyses has an important role to play in aiding public health decision-making at the global level. Further research is needed to investigates the causes of variation among cost, effects and cost-effectiveness data within and between settings. Such analyses still need to take a broad view, present data in a transparent manner and take account of local constraints. PMID:16584546

Staged decision making based on probabilistic forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booister, Nikéh; Verkade, Jan; Werner, Micha; Cranston, Michael; Cumiskey, Lydia; Zevenbergen, Chris

2016-04-01

Flood forecasting systems reduce, but cannot eliminate uncertainty about the future. Probabilistic forecasts explicitly show that uncertainty remains. However, as - compared to deterministic forecasts - a dimension is added ('probability' or 'likelihood'), with this added dimension decision making is made slightly more complicated. A technique of decision support is the cost-loss approach, which defines whether or not to issue a warning or implement mitigation measures (risk-based method). With the cost-loss method a warning will be issued when the ratio of the response costs to the damage reduction is less than or equal to the probability of the possible flood event. This cost-loss method is not widely used, because it motivates based on only economic values and is a technique that is relatively static (no reasoning, yes/no decision). Nevertheless it has high potential to improve risk-based decision making based on probabilistic flood forecasting because there are no other methods known that deal with probabilities in decision making. The main aim of this research was to explore the ways of making decision making based on probabilities with the cost-loss method better applicable in practice. The exploration began by identifying other situations in which decisions were taken based on uncertain forecasts or predictions. These cases spanned a range of degrees of uncertainty: from known uncertainty to deep uncertainty. Based on the types of uncertainties, concepts of dealing with situations and responses were analysed and possible applicable concepts where chosen. Out of this analysis the concepts of flexibility and robustness appeared to be fitting to the existing method. Instead of taking big decisions with bigger consequences at once, the idea is that actions and decisions are cut-up into smaller pieces and finally the decision to implement is made based on economic costs of decisions and measures and the reduced effect of flooding. The more lead-time there is in flood event management, the more damage can be reduced. And with decisions based on probabilistic forecasts, partial decisions can be made earlier in time (with a lower probability) and can be scaled up or down later in time when there is more certainty; whether the event takes place or not. Partial decisions are often more cheap, or shorten the final mitigation-time at the moment when there is more certainty. The proposed method is tested on Stonehaven, on the Carron River in Scotland. Decisions to implement demountable defences in the town are currently made based on a very short lead-time due to the absence of certainty. Application showed that staged decision making is possible and gives the decision maker more time to respond to a situation. The decision maker is able to take a lower regret decision with higher uncertainty and less related negative consequences. Although it is not possible to quantify intangible effects, it is part of the analysis to reduce these effects. Above all, the proposed approach has shown to be a possible improvement in economic terms and opens up possibilities of more flexible and robust decision making.

The standard of care and conflicts at the end of life in critical care: lessons from medical-legal crossroads and the role of a quasi-judicial tribunal in decision-making.

PubMed

Hawryluck, Laura; Sibbald, Robert; Chidwick, Paula

2013-12-01

The goals of this qualitative study were to review the last 7 years of end of life legal decisions within the critical care field to explore how medical benefit is defined and by whom and the role of the standard of care (SoC) in conflict resolution. A public online, non-profit database of the Federation of Law Societies of Canada was searched for relevant Consent and Capacity Board decisions from 2003 to 2012. In total, 1486 cases were collected, and purposive sampling identified a total of 29 decisions regarding use of life-sustaining treatments at end of life. Using modified grounded theory, decisions were read and analyzed from a central SoC concept to understand definitions of benefit, rationales for case adjudication, and repercussions of legal recourse in conflict resolution. Medical benefit was clearly defined, and its role in determining SoC, transparent. Perceptions of variability in SoC were enhanced by physicians in intractable conflicts seeking legal validation by framing SoC issues as "best interest" determinations. The results reveal some key problems in recourse to the Consent and Capacity Board for clinicians, patients and substitute decision makers in such conflict situations. This study can help improve decision-making by debunking myth of variability in determinations of medical benefit and the standards of care at end of life and reveal the pitfalls of legal recourse in resolving intractable conflicts. © 2013.

Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

2014-05-01

Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in this case study namely: construction of defense structures, relocation, implementation of an early warning system and spatial planning regulations. Some of the criteria are determined partly in other modules of the CHANGES SDSS, such as the costs for implementation, the risk reduction in monetary values, and societal risk. Other criteria, which could be environmental, economic, cultural, perception in nature, are defined by different stakeholders such as local authorities, expert organizations, private sector, and local public. In the next step, the stakeholders weight the importance of the criteria by pairwise comparison and visualize the decision matrix, which is a matrix based on criteria versus alternatives values. Finally alternatives are ranked by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. We expect that this approach will help the decision makers to ease their works and reduce their costs, because the process is more transparent, more accurate and involves a group decision. In that way there will be more confidence in the overall decision making process. Keywords: MCDM, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), SDSS, Natural Hazard Risk Management

Solving for Efficiency or Decision Criteria: When the Non-unique Nature of Solutions Becomes a Benefit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierce, S. A.; Ciarleglio, M.; Dulay, M.; Lowry, T. S.; Sharp, J. M.; Barnes, J. W.; Eaton, D. J.; Tidwell, V. C.

2006-12-01

Work in the literature for groundwater allocation emphasizes finding a truly optimal solution, often with the drawback of limiting the reported results to either maximizing net benefit in regional scale models or minimizing pumping costs for localized cases. From a policy perspective, limited insight can be gained from these studies because the results are restricted to a single, efficient solution and they neglect non-market values that may influence a management decision. Conversely, economically derived objective functions tend to exhibit a plateau upon nearing the optimal value. This plateau effect, or non-uniqueness, is actually a positive feature in the behavior of groundwater systems because it demonstrates that multiple management strategies, serving numerous community preferences, may be considered while still achieving similar quantitative results. An optimization problem takes the same set of initial conditions and looks for the most efficient solution while a decision problem looks at a situation and asks for a solution that meets certain user-defined criteria. In other words, the election of an alternative course of action using a decision support system will not always result in selection of the most `optimized' alternative. To broaden the analytical toolset available for science and policy interaction, we have developed a groundwater decision support system (GWDSS) that generates a suite of management alternatives by pairing a combinatorial search algorithm with a numerical groundwater model for consideration by decision makers and stakeholders. Subject to constraints as defined by community concerns, the tabu optimization engine systematically creates hypothetical management scenarios running hundreds, and even thousands, of simulations, and then saving the best performing realizations. Results of the search are then evaluated against stakeholder preference sets using ranking methods to aid in identifying a subset of alternatives for final consideration. Here we present the development of the GWDSS and its use in the decision making process for the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards Aquifer located in Austin Texas. Using hydrogeologic metrics, together with economic estimates and impervious cover valuations, representative rankings are determined. Post search multi-objective analysis reveals that some highly ranked alternatives meet the preference sets of more than one stakeholder and achieve similar quantitative aquifer performance. These results are important to both modelers and policy makers alike.

Medical Waste Disposal Method Selection Based on a Hierarchical Decision Model with Intuitionistic Fuzzy Relations

PubMed Central

Qian, Wuyong; Wang, Zhou-Jing; Li, Kevin W.

2016-01-01

Although medical waste usually accounts for a small fraction of urban municipal waste, its proper disposal has been a challenging issue as it often contains infectious, radioactive, or hazardous waste. This article proposes a two-level hierarchical multicriteria decision model to address medical waste disposal method selection (MWDMS), where disposal methods are assessed against different criteria as intuitionistic fuzzy preference relations and criteria weights are furnished as real values. This paper first introduces new operations for a special class of intuitionistic fuzzy values, whose membership and non-membership information is cross ratio based ]0, 1[-values. New score and accuracy functions are defined in order to develop a comparison approach for ]0, 1[-valued intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. A weighted geometric operator is then put forward to aggregate a collection of ]0, 1[-valued intuitionistic fuzzy values. Similar to Saaty’s 1–9 scale, this paper proposes a cross-ratio-based bipolar 0.1–0.9 scale to characterize pairwise comparison results. Subsequently, a two-level hierarchical structure is formulated to handle multicriteria decision problems with intuitionistic preference relations. Finally, the proposed decision framework is applied to MWDMS to illustrate its feasibility and effectiveness. PMID:27618082

Medical Waste Disposal Method Selection Based on a Hierarchical Decision Model with Intuitionistic Fuzzy Relations.

PubMed

Qian, Wuyong; Wang, Zhou-Jing; Li, Kevin W

2016-09-09

Although medical waste usually accounts for a small fraction of urban municipal waste, its proper disposal has been a challenging issue as it often contains infectious, radioactive, or hazardous waste. This article proposes a two-level hierarchical multicriteria decision model to address medical waste disposal method selection (MWDMS), where disposal methods are assessed against different criteria as intuitionistic fuzzy preference relations and criteria weights are furnished as real values. This paper first introduces new operations for a special class of intuitionistic fuzzy values, whose membership and non-membership information is cross ratio based ]0, 1[-values. New score and accuracy functions are defined in order to develop a comparison approach for ]0, 1[-valued intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. A weighted geometric operator is then put forward to aggregate a collection of ]0, 1[-valued intuitionistic fuzzy values. Similar to Saaty's 1-9 scale, this paper proposes a cross-ratio-based bipolar 0.1-0.9 scale to characterize pairwise comparison results. Subsequently, a two-level hierarchical structure is formulated to handle multicriteria decision problems with intuitionistic preference relations. Finally, the proposed decision framework is applied to MWDMS to illustrate its feasibility and effectiveness.

Towards public health decision support: a systematic review of bidirectional communication approaches

PubMed Central

Dixon, Brian E; Gamache, Roland E; Grannis, Shaun J

2013-01-01

Objective To summarize the literature describing computer-based interventions aimed at improving bidirectional communication between clinical and public health. Materials and Methods A systematic review of English articles using MEDLINE and Google Scholar. Search terms included public health, epidemiology, electronic health records, decision support, expert systems, and decision-making. Only articles that described the communication of information regarding emerging health threats from public health agencies to clinicians or provider organizations were included. Each article was independently reviewed by two authors. Results Ten peer-reviewed articles highlight a nascent but promising area of research and practice related to alerting clinicians about emerging threats. Current literature suggests that additional research and development in bidirectional communication infrastructure should focus on defining a coherent architecture, improving interoperability, establishing clear governance, and creating usable systems that will effectively deliver targeted, specific information to clinicians in support of patient and population decision-making. Conclusions Increasingly available clinical information systems make it possible to deliver timely, relevant knowledge to frontline clinicians in support of population health. Future work should focus on developing a flexible, interoperable infrastructure for bidirectional communications capable of integrating public health knowledge into clinical systems and workflows. PMID:23467470

Education and parental involvement in decision-making about newborn screening: understanding goals to clarify content.

PubMed

Potter, Beth K; Etchegary, Holly; Nicholls, Stuart G; Wilson, Brenda J; Craigie, Samantha M; Araia, Makda H

2015-06-01

A challenge in designing effective education for parents about newborn screening (NBS) has been uncertainty about appropriate content. Arguing that the goals of education may be usefully tied to parental decision-making, we sought to: (1) explore how different ways of implementing NBS differ in their approaches to parental engagement in decision-making; (2) map the potential goals of education onto these "implementation models"; and (3) consider the content that may be needed to support these goals. The resulting conceptual framework supports the availability of comprehensive information about NBS for parents, irrespective of the model of implementation. This is largely because we argue that meeting parental expectations and preferences for communication is an important goal regardless of whether or notparents are actively involved in making a decision. Our analysis supports a flexible approach, in which some educational messages are emphasized as important for all parents to understand while others are made available depending on parents' preferences. We have begun to define the content of NBS education for parents needed to support specific goals. Further research and discussion is important to determine the most appropriate strategies for delivering the tailored approach to education that emerged from our analysis.

Perceiving affordances in rugby union.

PubMed

Passos, Pedro; Cordovil, Rita; Fernandes, Orlando; Barreiros, João

2012-01-01

To succeed in competitive environments, players need to continuously adjust their decisions and actions to the behaviour of relevant others. Players' interactions demand ongoing decisions that are constrained by what is previously defined (e.g., coaches' prescriptions that establish 'what' to do) and by information that is available in the context and specifies not only 'what' the player should do, but also 'how', 'when' and 'where'. We describe what affordances emerge to the ball carrier as a consequence of changes in kinematic variables, such as interpersonal distances or distances to the nearest sideline. Changes in these variables determine whether and when different actions are possible. The ball carrier tended to perform a pass when the tackler was farthest from the sideline and the velocity of approach to the tackler did not seem to effect the ball carrier's decision. In the few episodes where the ball carrier moved forward instead of passing the ball, he was mainly influenced by contextual information, such as the variability of the players' distance to the nearest sideline. In sum, actors must be aware of the affordances of others that are specified by particular variables that become available just before decision-making.

Models for the indices of thermal comfort

PubMed Central

Adrian, Streinu-Cercel; Sergiu, Costoiu; Maria, Mârza; Anca, Streinu-Cercel; Monica, Mârza

2008-01-01

The current paper propose the analysis and extension formulation required for establishing decision in the management of the medical national system from the point of view of quality and efficiency such as: conceiving models for the indices of thermal comfort, defining the predicted mean vote (on the thermal sensation scale) „PMV”, defining the metabolism „M”, heat transfer between the human body and the environment, defining the predicted percent of dissatisfied people „PPD”, defining all indices of thermal comfort. PMID:20108461

Decision-making strategies: ignored to the detriment of healthcare training and delivery?

PubMed Central

Desmond, Chris; Brubaker, Kathryn A.; Ellner, Andrew L.

2013-01-01

Context: People do not always make health-related decisions which reflect their best interest – best interest being defined as the decision they would make if they carefully considered the options and fully understood the information available. A substantial literature has developed in behavioral economics and social psychology that seeks to elucidate the patterns in individual decision-making. While this is particularly relevant to healthcare, the insights from these fields have only been applied in a limited way. To address the health challenges of the twenty-first century, healthcare providers and healthcare systems designers need to more fully understand how individuals are making decisions. Methods: We provide an overview of the theories of behavioral economics and social psychology that relate to how individuals make health-related decisions. The concentration on health-related decisions leads to a focus on three topics: (1) mental shortcuts and motivated reasoning; (2) implications of time; and (3) implications of affect. The first topic is relevant because health-related decisions are often made in a hurry without a full appreciation of the implications and the deliberation they warrant. The second topic is included because the link between a decision and its health-related outcomes can involve a significant time lag. The final topic is included because health and affect are so often linked. Findings: The literature reviewed has implications for healthcare training and delivery. Selection for medical training must consider the skills necessary to understand and adapt to how patients make decisions. Training on the insights garnered from behavioral economics and social psychology would better prepare healthcare providers to effectively support their clients to lead healthy lives. Healthcare delivery should be structured to respond to the way in which decisions are made. Conclusions: These patterns in decision-making call into question basic assumptions our healthcare system makes about the best way to treat patients and deliver care. This literature has implications for the way we train physicians and deliver care. PMID:25264501

Decision-making strategies: ignored to the detriment of healthcare training and delivery?

PubMed

Desmond, Chris; Brubaker, Kathryn A; Ellner, Andrew L

2013-01-01

Context : People do not always make health-related decisions which reflect their best interest - best interest being defined as the decision they would make if they carefully considered the options and fully understood the information available. A substantial literature has developed in behavioral economics and social psychology that seeks to elucidate the patterns in individual decision-making. While this is particularly relevant to healthcare, the insights from these fields have only been applied in a limited way. To address the health challenges of the twenty-first century, healthcare providers and healthcare systems designers need to more fully understand how individuals are making decisions. Methods : We provide an overview of the theories of behavioral economics and social psychology that relate to how individuals make health-related decisions. The concentration on health-related decisions leads to a focus on three topics: (1) mental shortcuts and motivated reasoning; (2) implications of time; and (3) implications of affect. The first topic is relevant because health-related decisions are often made in a hurry without a full appreciation of the implications and the deliberation they warrant. The second topic is included because the link between a decision and its health-related outcomes can involve a significant time lag. The final topic is included because health and affect are so often linked. Findings : The literature reviewed has implications for healthcare training and delivery. Selection for medical training must consider the skills necessary to understand and adapt to how patients make decisions. Training on the insights garnered from behavioral economics and social psychology would better prepare healthcare providers to effectively support their clients to lead healthy lives. Healthcare delivery should be structured to respond to the way in which decisions are made. Conclusions : These patterns in decision-making call into question basic assumptions our healthcare system makes about the best way to treat patients and deliver care. This literature has implications for the way we train physicians and deliver care.

Patients Should Define Value in Health Care: A Conceptual Framework.

PubMed

Kamal, Robin N; Lindsay, Sarah E; Eppler, Sara L

2018-05-10

The main tenet of value-based health care is delivering high-quality care that is centered on the patient, improving health, and minimizing cost. Collaborative decision-making frameworks have been developed to help facilitate delivering care based on patient preferences (patient-centered care). The current value-based health care model, however, focuses on improving population health and overlooks the individuality of patients and their preferences for care. We highlight the importance of eliciting patient preferences in collaborative decision making and describe a conceptual framework that incorporates individual patients' preferences when defining value. Copyright © 2018 American Society for Surgery of the Hand. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On Parallelism and the Penman Natural Language Generation System.

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-04-01

TagfiniteA Tagsubject L untag ed Figure 2-2: System network with choosers & realization statements 7 decision . We will give a more detailed account of...2: enter the current system. The chooser of the system is in charge of * selection of features. The chooser is itself a decision tree with certain...organization of a chooser is the same as a decision (discrimination) tree, and each branching point in the tree is defined by Ask operation. For example, in

A business planning model to identify new safety net clinic locations.

PubMed

Langabeer, James; Helton, Jeffrey; DelliFraine, Jami; Dotson, Ebbin; Watts, Carolyn; Love, Karen

2014-01-01

Community health clinics serving the poor and underserved are geographically expanding due to changes in U.S. health care policy. This paper describes the experience of a collaborative alliance of health care providers in a large metropolitan area who develop a conceptual and mathematical decision model to guide decisions on expanding its network of community health clinics. Community stakeholders participated in a collaborative process that defined constructs they deemed important in guiding decisions on the location of community health clinics. This collaboration also defined key variables within each construct. Scores for variables within each construct were then totaled and weighted into a community-specific optimal space planning equation. This analysis relied entirely on secondary data available from published sources. The model built from this collaboration revolved around the constructs of demand, sustainability, and competition. It used publicly available data defining variables within each construct to arrive at an optimal location that maximized demand and sustainability and minimized competition. This is a model that safety net clinic planners and community stakeholders can use to analyze demographic and utilization data to optimize capacity expansion to serve uninsured and Medicaid populations. Communities can use this innovative model to develop a locally relevant clinic location-planning framework.

A Relational Approach to Moral Decision-Making: The Majority Opinion in "Planned Parenthood v. Casey."

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sullivan, Patricia A.; Goldzwig, Steven R.

1995-01-01

Defines a relational approach to moral reasoning. Notes that the Supreme Court, in "Planned Parenthood v. Casey," rejected simplistic approaches to moral reasoning and acknowledged the complex web of relationships involved in abortion decision making. Suggests that rhetoricians "revision" the art of persuasion to place more…

Improved Decision Making for School Organization. What and What for

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Myers, Donald A.; Sinclair, Robert

1973-01-01

A framework of 13 decision criteria to give educators help in comparing the relative merits of different forms of school organization. The methods of school organization judged to be in widespread use and defined in the article are (1) the self-contained classroom, team teaching, departmentalization, modular scheduling, differentiated staffing,…

Survey Says: Data to Guide Policy Decisions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thompson, Edgar H.; Stainback, George H.; Stovall, James G.

2007-01-01

Superintendents and school boards should get the most accurate information they can when making policy decisions--and that means data, not anecdotes and impressions. This article discusses factors to consider in conducting a survey. A good survey starts with the basics: Ask the right questions of a good sampling of the defined population; take…

Location Decisions of Charter Schools: An Examination of Michigan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koller, Kyle; Welsch, David M.

2017-01-01

Using school level data we examine which factors influence charter school location decisions. We augment previous research by employing a panel dataset, recently developed geographic techniques to measure distances and define areas, and employing a hurdle model to deal with the excess zero problem. The main results of our research indicate that,…

Sustainability at the community level: Searching for common ground as a part of a national strategy for decision support

EPA Science Inventory

The Sustainable and Healthy Communities (SHC) research program is intended to support resource sustainability and decision making at the community level. Sustainability is defined as the ability of a community to meet present needs without compromising the ability of society and ...

An Investigation of Employee Involvement Schemes and Governance Structures in Professional Employment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Douglas, Joel M.

1995-01-01

Employee Involvement Schemes (EIS) are modeled after Western European worker participation models. These are grounded in collaborative labor relations and encourage employees to participate in work place decision-making. If employees, as the term is defined in the National Labor Relations Act, take part in EIS decision-making processes, they may…

Pleasure and Pain: Faculty and Administrators in a Shared Governance Environment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fitzgerald, Sallyanne H.

1998-01-01

Describes frictions inherent in the decision-making process at a California community college, where shared governance is both clearly defined and mandated. Discusses responsibility versus consultation and offers two successful examples (regarding the writing center and the basic writing program) in which faculty were involved in the decision and…

Moral Development and Social Worker Ethical Decision-Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Groessl, Joan

2013-01-01

This study examined both the moral development levels using the Defining Issues Test-2 (DIT--2) and ethical decision-making using the Professional Opinion Scale (POS) of social workers who provide field supervision to students within accredited social work programs in Wisconsin. Using the moral development theory of Kohlberg (1981) which defined…

[Allocation decisions of health insurance rehabilitation managers--An explorative case study concerning stroke rehabilitation].

PubMed

Hasenbein, U; Wallesch, C-W

2003-12-01

We investigated processes of and subjective reasons for resource allocation in three out of four rehabilitation specialists of a regional office of a major health insurance. Decisions of health insurance personnel include approval of and duration of rehabilitation treatment and choice of clinical provider. Insurance specialists are mainly involved in documentation and coordination, whereas decisions mainly follow expert recommendations, mainly of the medical service. Allocation is based primarily on somatic impairment and disability, psychosocial function, motivation and rehabilitation potential are regarded as secondary. Goals and expected results of rehabilitation are neither individually defined nor their achievement evaluated. Decision processes are dominated by routines and agreements. Only exceptionally, defined rules and procedures are applied. Active case management is hampered by a highly specialized internal structure of the investigated insurance fund. The optimal fulfillment of individual requirements for a limited-time rehabilitation treatment is the central criterion for decision making. However, the specialists lack detailed information concerning appropriateness, quality and efficacy of rehabilitation providers, especially when taking patient-related variables into account. Instead, they trust that only high-quality institutions are contracted. Systematic control and feedback of rehabilitation results is not available. The surveyed rehabilitation managers do not include cost aspects in their decision-making. They would regard this as alien to a member- and patient-oriented policy. Improvement potentials with respect to rehabilitation case management are being reviewed.

What is a good medical decision? A research agenda guided by perspectives from multiple stakeholders

PubMed Central

Hamilton, Jada G.; Lillie, Sarah E.; Alden, Dana L.; Scherer, Laura; Oser, Megan; Rini, Christine; Tanaka, Miho; Baleix, John; Brewster, Mikki; Lee, Simon Craddock; Goldstein, Mary K.; Jacobson, Robert M.; Myers, Ronald E.; Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J.; Waters, Erika A.

2016-01-01

Informed and shared decision making are critical aspects of patient-centered care, which has contributed to an emphasis on decision support interventions to promote good medical decision making. However, researchers and healthcare providers have not reached a consensus on what defines a good decision, nor how to evaluate it. This position paper, informed by conference sessions featuring diverse stakeholders held at the 2015 Society of Behavioral Medicine and Society for Medical Decision Making annual meetings, describes key concepts that influence the decision making process itself and that may change what it means to make a good decision: interpersonal factors, structural constraints, affective influences, and values clarification methods. This paper also proposes specific research questions within each of these priority areas, with the goal of moving medical decision making research to a more comprehensive definition of a good medical decision, and enhancing the ability to measure and improve the decision making process. PMID:27566316

In the Way of Peacemaker Guide Curve between Water Supply and Flood Control for Short Term Reservoir Operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uysal, G.; Sensoy, A.; Yavuz, O.; Sorman, A. A.; Gezgin, T.

2012-04-01

Effective management of a controlled reservoir system where it involves multiple and sometimes conflicting objectives is a complex problem especially in real time operations. Yuvacık Dam Reservoir, located in the Marmara region of Turkey, is built to supply annual demand of 142 hm3 water for Kocaeli city requires such a complex management strategy since it has relatively small (51 hm3) effective capacity. On the other hand, the drainage basin is fed by both rainfall and snowmelt since the elevation ranges between 80 - 1548 m. Excessive water must be stored behind the radial gates between February and May in terms of sustainability especially for summer and autumn periods. Moreover, the downstream channel physical conditions constraint the spillway releases up to 100 m3/s although the spillway is large enough to handle major floods. Thus, this situation makes short term release decisions the challenging task. Long term water supply curves, based on historical inflows and annual water demand, are in conflict with flood regulation (control) levels, based on flood attenuation and routing curves, for this reservoir. A guide curve, that is generated using both water supply and flood control of downstream channel, generally corresponds to upper elevation of conservation pool for simulation of a reservoir. However, sometimes current operation necessitates exceeding this target elevation. Since guide curves can be developed as a function of external variables, the water potential of a basin can be an indicator to explain current conditions and decide on the further strategies. Besides, releases with respect to guide curve are managed and restricted by user-defined rules. Although the managers operate the reservoir due to several variable conditions and predictions, still the simulation model using variable guide curve is an urgent need to test alternatives quickly. To that end, using HEC-ResSim, the several variable guide curves are defined to meet the requirements by taking inflow, elevation, precipitation and snow water equivalent into consideration to propose alternative simulations as a decision support system. After that, the releases are subjected to user-defined rules. Thus, previous year reservoir simulations are compared with observed reservoir levels and releases. Hypothetical flood scenarios are tested in case of different storm event timing and sizing. Numerical weather prediction data of Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) can be used for temperature and precipitation forecasts that will form the inputs for a hydrological model. The estimated flows can be used for real time short term decisions for reservoir simulation based on variable guide curve and user defined rules.

Informed actions: where to cost effectively manage multiple threats to species to maximize return on investment.

PubMed

Auerbach, Nancy A; Tulloch, Ayesha I T; Possingham, Hugh P

Conservation practitioners, faced with managing multiple threats to biodiversity and limited funding, must prioritize investment in different management actions. From an economic perspective, it is routine practice to invest where the highest rate of return is expected. This return-on-investment (ROI) thinking can also benefit species conservation, and researchers are developing sophisticated approaches to support decision-making for cost-effective conservation. However, applied use of these approaches is limited. Managers may be wary of “black-box” algorithms or complex methods that are difficult to explain to funding agencies. As an alternative, we demonstrate the use of a basic ROI analysis for determining where to invest in cost-effective management to address threats to species. This method can be applied using basic geographic information system and spreadsheet calculations. We illustrate the approach in a management action prioritization for a biodiverse region of eastern Australia. We use ROI to prioritize management actions for two threats to a suite of threatened species: habitat degradation by cattle grazing, and predation by invasive red foxes (Vulpes vulpes). We show how decisions based on cost-effective threat management depend upon how expected benefits to species are defined and how benefits and costs co-vary. By considering a combination of species richness, restricted habitats, species vulnerability, and costs of management actions, small investments can result in greater expected benefit compared with management decisions that consider only species richness. Furthermore, a landscape management strategy that implements multiple actions is more efficient than managing only for one threat, or more traditional approaches that don't consider ROI. Our approach provides transparent and logical decision support for prioritizing different actions intended to abate threats associated with multiple species; it is of use when managers need a justifiable and repeatable approach to investment.

Which factors enhance positive drug reimbursement recommendation in Scotland? A retrospective analysis 2006-2013.

PubMed

Charokopou, Mata; Majer, Istvan M; Raad, Johan de; Broekhuizen, Stefan; Postma, Maarten; Heeg, Bart

2015-03-01

To identify the factors that influence the Scottish Medicines Consortium (SMC) in deciding whether to accept pharmaceutical technologies for use within the Scottish health care system. A database of SMC submissions between 2006 and 2013 was created, containing a range of clinical, economic, and other factors extracted from published health technology assessment reports. A binomial outcome variable was used, defined as the decision to "accept for use" or "not recommend" a technology. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to assess the impact by means of odds ratios (ORs) of the submitted evidence on the recommendation decision. Out of 463 applications, 265 were accepted for use (57%) and 198 (43%) were not recommended for use within National Health Service Scotland. Univariate analyses showed that 13 variables significantly affected the SMC decision. Of these 13 variables, 7 variables were shown to have a meaningful impact in the multivariate analysis. Four of these concerned the outcome of cost-effectiveness analyses; the fact that a submission was supported by a cost-minimization analysis was the strongest positive variable (OR = 10.30) and a submission showing a product not being cost-effective (i.e., incremental cost-effectiveness ratio above £30,000/quality-adjusted life-year gained) was the strongest negative predictor (OR = 0.47). The other variables concerned whether the submission was related to a product indicated for a nervous system disease (OR = 0.41), whether it was indicated for nonchronic use (OR = 1.66), and whether the submission was performed by a big company (OR = 2.83). This study demonstrated that the outcome of cost-effectiveness analyses is an important factor affecting the SMC's reimbursement recommendation decision. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

A structured review of spinal stiffness as a kinesiological outcome of manipulation: its measurement and utility in diagnosis, prognosis and treatment decision-making.

PubMed

Snodgrass, Suzanne J; Haskins, Robin; Rivett, Darren A

2012-10-01

To review and discuss the methods used for measuring spinal stiffness and factors associated with stiffness, how stiffness is used in diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment decision-making and the effects of manipulative techniques on stiffness. A systematic search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, AMED and ICL databases was conducted. Included studies addressed one of four constructs related to stiffness: measurement, diagnosis, prognosis and/or treatment decision-making, and the effects of manipulation on stiffness. Spinal stiffness was defined as the relationship between force and displacement. One hundred and four studies are discussed in this review, with the majority of studies focused on the measurement of stiffness, most often in asymptomatic persons. Eight studies investigated spinal stiffness in diagnosis, providing limited evidence that practitioner-judged stiffness is associated with radiographic findings of sagittal rotational mobility. Fifteen studies investigated spinal stiffness in prognosis or treatment decision-making, providing limited evidence that spinal stiffness is unlikely to independently predict patient outcomes, though stiffness may influence a practitioner's application of non-thrust manipulative techniques. Nine studies investigating the effects of manipulative techniques on spinal stiffness provide very limited evidence that there is no change in spinal stiffness following thrust or non-thrust manipulation in asymptomatic individuals and non-thrust techniques in symptomatic persons, with only one study supporting an immediate, but not sustained, stiffness decrease following thrust manipulation in symptomatic individuals. The existing limited evidence does not support an association between spinal stiffness and manipulative treatment outcomes. There is a need for additional research investigating the effects of manipulation on spinal stiffness in persons with spinal pain. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Context-rich semantic framework for effective data-to-decisions in coalition networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grueneberg, Keith; de Mel, Geeth; Braines, Dave; Wang, Xiping; Calo, Seraphin; Pham, Tien

2013-05-01

In a coalition context, data fusion involves combining of soft (e.g., field reports, intelligence reports) and hard (e.g., acoustic, imagery) sensory data such that the resulting output is better than what it would have been if the data are taken individually. However, due to the lack of explicit semantics attached with such data, it is difficult to automatically disseminate and put the right contextual data in the hands of the decision makers. In order to understand the data, explicit meaning needs to be added by means of categorizing and/or classifying the data in relationship to each other from base reference sources. In this paper, we present a semantic framework that provides automated mechanisms to expose real-time raw data effectively by presenting appropriate information needed for a given situation so that an informed decision could be made effectively. The system utilizes controlled natural language capabilities provided by the ITA (International Technology Alliance) Controlled English (CE) toolkit to provide a human-friendly semantic representation of messages so that the messages can be directly processed in human/machine hybrid environments. The Real-time Semantic Enrichment (RTSE) service adds relevant contextual information to raw data streams from domain knowledge bases using declarative rules. The rules define how the added semantics and context information are derived and stored in a semantic knowledge base. The software framework exposes contextual information from a variety of hard and soft data sources in a fast, reliable manner so that an informed decision can be made using semantic queries in intelligent software systems.

Optimal Decision-making Model of Integrated Water Resources Management - A Case of Hsinchu Water Resources Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S. Y.; Ho, C. C.; Chang, L. C.

2017-12-01

The public use water in Hsinchu are mainly supplied from Baoshan Reservoir, Second Baoshan Reservoir, Yongheshan Reservoir and Longen Weir. However, the increasing water demand, caused by development of the Hsinchu Science and Industrial Park, results in supply stable water getting more difficult. For stabilize water supply in Hsinchu, the study applies long-term and short-term plans to fulfill the water shortage. Developing an efficient methodology to define a cost-effective action portfolio is an important task. Hence, the study develops a novel decision model, the Stochastic Programming with Recourse Decision Model (SPRDM), to estimate a cost-effective action portfolio. The first-stage of SPRDM determine the long-term action portfolio and the portfolio accompany recourse information (the probability for water shortage event). The second-stage of SPRDM optimize the cost-effective action portfolio in response to the recourse information. In order to consider the uncertainty of reservoir sediment and demand growth, the study set 9 scenarios comprise optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic reservoir sediment and demand growth. The results show the optimal action portfolio consist of FengTain Lake and Panlon Weir, Hsinchu Desalination Plant, Domestic and Industrial Water long-term plans, and Emergency Backup Well, Irrigation Water Transference, Preliminary Water Rationing, Advanced Water Rationing and Water Transport from Other Districts short-term plans. The minimum expected cost of optimal action portfolio is NT$1.1002 billion. The results can be used as a reference for decision making because the results have considered the uncertainty of varied hydrology, reservoir sediment, and water demand growth.

[Healthcare occupations are "different"].

PubMed

Heubel, F

2014-08-01

Healthcare requires careful coordination of several occupations. In order to attain the best possible result, including effectiveness and cost-efficiency, the specific expertise of each of these occupations must be clearly defined. Healthcare occupations, physicians and nurses, are indeed professions as opposed to mere "jobs". They are concerned with living but ill human beings and not with things. Reliance on a personal capacity of judgment is a decisive aspect of professions. Healthcare professionals perform best if they are granted specific independence relative to their work.

Utilization of An NCI Infrastructure to Evaluate Breast Cancer Patient Outcomes of Importance in Determining Priorities for New Health Care Reform.

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-09-01

California has made outcomes research a vital priority, as evidence - based medicine will soon dictate breast cancer practice patterns and insurance coverage...results reported to date. I also emphasize outcomes research methodology in an attempt to define treatments guidelines from an evidence - based medicine approach...techniques such as decision analysis, cost- effectiveness, and evidence - based medicine . The goal of the new inpatient service is to optimize the value of

A Validation of the Proposed Royal Australian Navy Standard Work Week and Naval Management Diary Using a Simulated Crew of an Armidale Class Patrol Boat

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

Reduced mental capacity, poor decision making, emotional outbursts or withdrawals, and reduced alertness are among the side effects that have been...Guide.” The guide defined fatigue as “the product of intense and prolonged emotional strain, poor and inadequate diet, strenuous physical exertion...scheduling bodily functions and periods of sleepiness and wakefulness. Circadian rhythms control numerous factors in the human body including body

Do Traditional Admissions Criteria Reflect Applicant Creativity?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pretz, Jean E.; Kaufman, James C.

2017-01-01

College admissions decisions have traditionally focused on high school academic performance and standardized test scores. An ongoing debate is the validity of these measures for predicting success in college; part of this debate includes how success is defined. One potential way of defining college success is a student's creative accomplishments.…

Trust, emotion, sex, politics, and science: surveying the risk-assessment battlefield.

PubMed

Slovic, P

1999-08-01

Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and conflict have become pervasive. Research has begun to provide a new perspective on this problem by demonstrating the complexity of the concept "risk" and the inadequacies of the traditional view of risk assessment as a purely scientific enterprise. This paper argues that danger is real, but risk is socially constructed. Risk assessment is inherently subjective and represents a blending of science and judgment with important psychological, social, cultural, and political factors. In addition, our social and democratic institutions, remarkable as they are in many respects, breed distrust in the risk arena. Whoever controls the definition of risk controls the rational solution to the problem at hand. If risk is defined one way, then one option will rise to the top as the most cost-effective or the safest or the best. If it is defined another way, perhaps incorporating qualitative characteristics and other contextual factors, one will likely get a different ordering of action solutions. Defining risk is thus an exercise in power. Scientific literacy and public education are important, but they are not central to risk controversies. The public is not irrational. Their judgments about risk are influenced by emotion and affect in a way that is both simple and sophisticated. The same holds true for scientists. Public views are also influenced by worldviews, ideologies, and values; so are scientists' views, particularly when they are working at the limits of their expertise. The limitations of risk science, the importance and difficulty of maintaining trust, and the complex, sociopolitical nature of risk point to the need for a new approach--one that focuses upon introducing more public participation into both risk assessment and risk decision making in order to make the decision process more democratic, improve the relevance and quality of technical analysis, and increase the legitimacy and public acceptance of the resulting decisions.

On Goal-Oriented, Hydrogeological Site Investigation: A Holistic Approach (Henry Darcy Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubin, Yoram

2016-04-01

UQ (for Uncertainty Quantification) is a critical element of groundwater management and by extension, of hydrological site investigation. While it is clear that UQ is an important goal, there is ambiguity as to what the target of the UQ should be, and how to make UQ relevant in the context of public policy. Planning for UQ (meaning what measurements to take, where, how many, what frequency, etc.), one could consider environmental performance parameters (EPMs, such as concentrations or travel time) as the targets of site investigation. But there is a need to go beyond EPMs, and to consider the uncertainty related to impacts such as enhanced cancer-risk due to groundwater contamination or, more generally, to decisions facing regulators. In any case, UQ requires site investigation, and decision-makers, who end up paying for it, are not really interested in EPMs: they care about making operational decisions that are defensible legally and justified from the perspective of public good. The key to UQ, whether considering EPMS or operational decisions concerning the public good, is defining a suitable strategy for site investigation. There is a body of published works on relating site investigations with EPMs, but much less is known on how to support operational decisions with strategies for site characterization. In this lecture, I will address this issue and I will outline a comprehensive approach for addressing it using a statistical formalism that couples hypothesis testing with Bayesian statistics. I refer to this approach as goal-oriented site investigation. I will show how site investigation strategies, with specifics such as which measurements to take and where, could be related to goals lined with operational decisions. This includes (1) defining the relevant goals; (2) formulating hypotheses; (3) defining alternative strategies for site investigation and (4) evaluating them in terms of probabilities for making errors in accepting or rejecting the hypotheses.

Framing effectiveness in impact assessment: Discourse accommodation in controversial infrastructure development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rozema, Jaap G., E-mail: j.rozema@uea.ac.uk; Department of Development and Planning, Aalborg University, A.C. Meyers Vænge 15, DK-2450 København SV; Bond, Alan J.

There is ongoing debate about the effectiveness of impact assessment tools, which matters both because of the threat to future practice of the tools which are frequently perceived to be ineffective, and because of the disillusionment that can ensue, and controversy generated, amongst stakeholders in a decision context where opportunities for meaningful debate have not been provided. In this article we regard debate about the meaning of effectiveness in impact assessment as an inevitable consequence of increased participation in environmental decision-making, and therefore frame effectiveness based on an inclusive democracy role to mean the extent to which impact assessment canmore » accommodate civil society discourse. Our aim is to investigate effectiveness based on this framing by looking at one type of impact assessment – environmental impact assessment (EIA) – in two controversial project proposals: the HS2 rail network in England; and the A4DS motorway in the Netherlands. Documentary analysis and interviews held with key civil society stakeholders have been deployed to identify discourses that were mobilised in the cases. EIA was found to be able to accommodate only one out of four discourses that were identified; for the other three it did not provide the space for the arguments that characterised opposition. The conclusion in relation to debate on framings of effectiveness is that EIA will not be considered effective by the majority of stakeholders. EIA was established to support decision-making through a better understanding of impacts, so its ineffectiveness is unsurprising when its role is perceived to be broader. However, there remains a need to map discourses in different decision contexts and to analyse the extent to which the range of discourses are accommodated throughout the decision process, and the role of impact assessment in those processes, before recommendations can be made to either improve impact assessment effectiveness, or whether it is simply perceptions of effectiveness that need to be improved. - Highlights: • Effectiveness of EIA is defined in terms of its ability to accommodate discourses. • Four separate discourses were identified across two controversial cases. • EIA is considered to mobilize one out of four discourses only. • Discourse mapping is recommended to improve EIA effectiveness.« less

Optimal management of adults with pharyngitis – a multi-criteria decision analysis

PubMed Central

Singh, Sonal; Dolan, James G; Centor, Robert M

2006-01-01

Background Current practice guidelines offer different management recommendations for adults presenting with a sore throat. The key issue is the extent to which the clinical likelihood of a Group A streptococcal infection should affect patient management decisions. To help resolve this issue, we conducted a multi-criteria decision analysis using the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Methods We defined optimal patient management using four criteria: 1) reduce symptom duration; 2) prevent infectious complications, local and systemic; 3) minimize antibiotic side effects, minor and anaphylaxis; and 4) achieve prudent use of antibiotics, avoiding both over-use and under-use. In our baseline analysis we assumed that all criteria and sub-criteria were equally important except minimizing anaphylactic side effects, which was judged very strongly more important than minimizing minor side effects. Management strategies included: a) No test, No treatment; b) Perform a rapid strep test and treat if positive; c) Perform a throat culture and treat if positive; d) Perform a rapid strep test and treat if positive; if negative obtain a throat culture and treat if positive; and e) treat without further tests. We defined four scenarios based on the likelihood of group A streptococcal infection using the Centor score, a well-validated clinical index. Published data were used to estimate the likelihoods of clinical outcomes and the test operating characteristics of the rapid strep test and throat culture for identifying group A streptococcal infections. Results Using the baseline assumptions, no testing and no treatment is preferred for patients with Centor scores of 1; two strategies – culture and treat if positive and rapid strep with culture of negative results – are equally preferable for patients with Centor scores of 2; and rapid strep with culture of negative results is the best management strategy for patients with Centor scores 3 or 4. These results are sensitive to the priorities assigned to the decision criteria, especially avoiding over-use versus under-use of antibiotics, and the population prevalence of Group A streptococcal pharyngitis. Conclusion The optimal clinical management of adults with sore throat depends on both the clinical probability of a group A streptococcal infection and clinical judgments that incorporate individual patient and practice circumstances. PMID:16533386

Conceptualizing, Understanding, and Predicting Responsible Decisions and Quality Input

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wall, N.; PytlikZillig, L. M.

2012-12-01

In areas such as climate change, where uncertainty is high, it is arguably less difficult to tell when efforts have resulted in changes in knowledge, than when those efforts have resulted in responsible decisions. What is a responsible decision? More broadly, when it comes to citizen input, what is "high quality" input? And most importantly, how are responsible decisions and quality input enhanced? The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of the different dimensions of "responsible" or "quality" public input and citizen decisions by comparing and contrasting the different predictors of those different dimensions. We first present different possibilities for defining, operationalizing and assessing responsible or high quality decisions. For example, responsible decisions or quality input might be defined as using specific content (e.g., using climate change information in decisions appropriately), as using specific processes (e.g., investing time and effort in learning about and discussing the issues prior to making decisions), or on the basis of some judgment of the decision or input itself (e.g., judgments of the rationale provided for the decisions, or number of issues considered when giving input). Second, we present results from our work engaging people with science policy topics, and the different ways that we have tried to define these two constructs. In the area of climate change specifically, we describe the development of a short survey that assesses exposure to climate information, knowledge of and attitudes toward climate change, and use of climate information in one's decisions. Specifically, the short survey was developed based on a review of common surveys of climate change related knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors, and extensive piloting and cognitive interviews. Next, we analyze more than 200 responses to that survey (data collection is currently ongoing and will be complete after the AGU deadline), and report the predictors of reported use of climate information in one's personal and work-related decisions, as well as significant predictors of one's willingness to commit to attend a four-hour public meeting and discussion with city leaders and energy experts for the purposes of thinking about and discussing local energy-related decisions. Finally, in order to consider future directions for assessing "responsible" or "quality" input in the area of climate change, we report data and results from experimental studies conducted in a different area of science: nanotechnology. Specifically, we discuss our methods for assessing quality of written input on the future development and regulation of nanotechnology under different experimental conditions (e.g., written alone or after discussion with a group), and the compare and contrast the best predictors of those operational definitions to those that we have explored in the area of climate change outreach contexts. Discussion will focus on the pros and cons of different ways of assessing the quality of public input.

Artificial intelligent decision support for low-cost launch vehicle integrated mission operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szatkowski, Gerard P.; Schultz, Roger

1988-11-01

The feasibility, benefits, and risks associated with Artificial Intelligence (AI) Expert Systems applied to low cost space expendable launch vehicle systems are reviewed. This study is in support of the joint USAF/NASA effort to define the next generation of a heavy-lift Advanced Launch System (ALS) which will provide economical and routine access to space. The significant technical goals of the ALS program include: a 10 fold reduction in cost per pound to orbit, launch processing in under 3 weeks, and higher reliability and safety standards than current expendables. Knowledge-based system techniques are being explored for the purpose of automating decision support processes in onboard and ground systems for pre-launch checkout and in-flight operations. Issues such as: satisfying real-time requirements, providing safety validation, hardware and Data Base Management System (DBMS) interfacing, system synergistic effects, human interfaces, and ease of maintainability, have an effect on the viability of expert systems as a useful tool.

Artificial intelligent decision support for low-cost launch vehicle integrated mission operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Szatkowski, Gerard P.; Schultz, Roger

1988-01-01

The feasibility, benefits, and risks associated with Artificial Intelligence (AI) Expert Systems applied to low cost space expendable launch vehicle systems are reviewed. This study is in support of the joint USAF/NASA effort to define the next generation of a heavy-lift Advanced Launch System (ALS) which will provide economical and routine access to space. The significant technical goals of the ALS program include: a 10 fold reduction in cost per pound to orbit, launch processing in under 3 weeks, and higher reliability and safety standards than current expendables. Knowledge-based system techniques are being explored for the purpose of automating decision support processes in onboard and ground systems for pre-launch checkout and in-flight operations. Issues such as: satisfying real-time requirements, providing safety validation, hardware and Data Base Management System (DBMS) interfacing, system synergistic effects, human interfaces, and ease of maintainability, have an effect on the viability of expert systems as a useful tool.

Accounting Information Systems in Healthcare: A Review of the Literature.

PubMed

Hammour, Hadal; Househ, Mowafa; Razzak, Hira Abdul

2017-01-01

As information technology progresses in Saudi Arabia, the manual accounting systems have become graduallyinadequate for decision needs. Subsequently, private and public healthcare divisions in Saudi Arabia perceive Computerized accounting information system (CAIS) as a vehicle to safeguard efficient and effective flow of information during the analysis, processes, and recording of financial data. Efficient and effective flow of information improvesthe decision making of staff, thereby improving the capability of health care sectors to reduce cost of the medical services.In this paper, we define computerized accounting systems from the point of view of health informatics. Also, the challenges and benefits of supporting CAIS applications in hospitals of Saudi Arabia. With these elements, we conclude that CAIS in Saudi Arabia can serve as a valuable tool for evaluating and controlling the cost of medical services in healthcare sectors. Supplementary education on the significance of having systems of computerized accounting within hospitals for nurses, doctors, and accountants with other health care staff is warranted in future.

Health Reform and the Constitutionality of the Individual Mandate

PubMed Central

Lee, Jeffrey J.; Kelly, Deena; McHugh, Matthew D.

2012-01-01

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) of 2010 is landmark legislation designed to expand access to health care for virtually all legal U.S. residents. A vital but controversial provision of the ACA requires individuals to maintain health insurance coverage or face a tax penalty—the individual mandate. We examine the constitutionality of the individual mandate by analyzing relevant court decisions. A critical issue has been defining the “activities” Congress is authorized to regulate. Some judges determined that the mandate was constitutional because the decision to go without health insurance, that is, to self-insure, is an activity with substantial economic effects within the overall scheme of the ACA. Opponents suggest that Congress overstepped its authority by regulating “inactivity,” that is, compelling people to purchase insurance when they otherwise would not. The U.S. Supreme Court is set to review the issues and the final ruling will shape the effectiveness of health reform. PMID:22454219

Method and apparatus for determining and utilizing a time-expanded decision network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

de Weck, Olivier (Inventor); Silver, Matthew (Inventor)

2012-01-01

A method, apparatus and computer program for determining and utilizing a time-expanded decision network is presented. A set of potential system configurations is defined. Next, switching costs are quantified to create a "static network" that captures the difficulty of switching among these configurations. A time-expanded decision network is provided by expanding the static network in time, including chance and decision nodes. Minimum cost paths through the network are evaluated under plausible operating scenarios. The set of initial design configurations are iteratively modified to exploit high-leverage switches and the process is repeated to convergence. Time-expanded decision networks are applicable, but not limited to, the design of systems, products, services and contracts.

Exploring multicriteria decision strategies in GIS with linguistic quantifiers: A case study of residential quality evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malczewski, Jacek; Rinner, Claus

2005-06-01

Commonly used GIS combination operators such as Boolean conjunction/disjunction and weighted linear combination can be generalized to the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) family of operators. This multicriteria evaluation method allows decision-makers to define a decision strategy on a continuum between pessimistic and optimistic strategies. Recently, OWA has been introduced to GIS-based decision support systems. We propose to extend a previous implementation of OWA with linguistic quantifiers to simplify the definition of decision strategies and to facilitate an exploratory analysis of multiple criteria. The linguistic quantifier-guided OWA procedure is illustrated using a dataset for evaluating residential quality of neighborhoods in London, Ontario.

An assessment of faculty and dental student decision-making in ethics.

PubMed

Behar-Horenstein, Linda S; Catalanotto, Frank A; Garvan, Cynthia Wilson; Hudson-Vassell, Charisse

2014-01-01

This study reports and compares dental student and dental faculty scores to national norms for the Defining Issues Test 2, a measure of ethical decision-making competency. The findings showed that dental students and faculty tend to make decisions that promote self-interest, paralleling the ethical orientation of business professionals. Differences associated with gender, language, and norms from previous studies were observed. The findings underscore the importance of raising dental faculty and student awareness of their own ethical decision-making approaches. More importantly, the findings highlight the need to ensure that dental faculty have both the knowledge and skills to train dental students about the central role that ethical decision-making must play in patient care.

Pharmacoeconomics--an aid to better decision-making.

PubMed

Arenas-Guzman, R; Tosti, A; Hay, R; Haneke, E

2005-09-01

The first aim of this workshop was to define pharmacoeconomic concepts and terminology. Pharmacoeconomics can be defined as the branch of economics that uses cost-benefit, cost-effectiveness, cost-minimization, cost-of-illness and cost-utility analyses to compare pharmaceutical products and treatment strategies. Economic evaluations provide healthcare decision-makers with valuable information, allowing optimal allocation of limited resources. However, pharmacoeconomics is based on long-term benefits, whereas physicians are typically forced to seek immediate savings. The second aim was to review pharmacoeconomic studies in the field of onychomycosis and finally to discuss future perspectives. We discussed current pharmacoeconomic issues on the management of onychomycosis. Consensus was reached on the following issues: * Published pharmacoeconomic studies concerning onychomycosis are flawed. Future studies should be based on internationally validated principles and appropriate models. The fact that costs of different drugs, laboratory examinations and physician visits vary worldwide should be considered. Cost-benefit studies are required. * The National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE) recommendations are often considered in countries other than the UK, even when not adapted to the country in question. * Generic drugs might reduce costs, but this depends on their effectiveness (bioavailability). * Sampling requests affect the economic cost (dependent on methodology, which depends on country) and physicians often trust their instincts even when tests are repeatedly negative. * The cost of adverse event management is usually considered to be 10%; this may be too high for onychomycosis, as treatments are relatively safe without severe side-effects. * Probability of recurrence for each drug should be determined. * Need for disease severity standardization, definition of diagnostic criteria and successful treatment (mycological and clinical cure).

On the use of Bayesian decision theory for issuing natural hazard warnings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Economou, T.; Stephenson, D. B.; Rougier, J. C.; Neal, R. A.; Mylne, K. R.

2016-10-01

Warnings for natural hazards improve societal resilience and are a good example of decision-making under uncertainty. A warning system is only useful if well defined and thus understood by stakeholders. However, most operational warning systems are heuristic: not formally or transparently defined. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for issuing warnings under uncertainty but has not been fully exploited. Here, a decision theoretic framework is proposed for hazard warnings. The framework allows any number of warning levels and future states of nature, and a mathematical model for constructing the necessary loss functions for both generic and specific end-users is described. The approach is illustrated using one-day ahead warnings of daily severe precipitation over the UK, and compared to the current decision tool used by the UK Met Office. A probability model is proposed to predict precipitation, given ensemble forecast information, and loss functions are constructed for two generic stakeholders: an end-user and a forecaster. Results show that the Met Office tool issues fewer high-level warnings compared with our system for the generic end-user, suggesting the former may not be suitable for risk averse end-users. In addition, raw ensemble forecasts are shown to be unreliable and result in higher losses from warnings.

On the use of Bayesian decision theory for issuing natural hazard warnings.

PubMed

Economou, T; Stephenson, D B; Rougier, J C; Neal, R A; Mylne, K R

2016-10-01

Warnings for natural hazards improve societal resilience and are a good example of decision-making under uncertainty. A warning system is only useful if well defined and thus understood by stakeholders. However, most operational warning systems are heuristic: not formally or transparently defined. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for issuing warnings under uncertainty but has not been fully exploited. Here, a decision theoretic framework is proposed for hazard warnings. The framework allows any number of warning levels and future states of nature, and a mathematical model for constructing the necessary loss functions for both generic and specific end-users is described. The approach is illustrated using one-day ahead warnings of daily severe precipitation over the UK, and compared to the current decision tool used by the UK Met Office. A probability model is proposed to predict precipitation, given ensemble forecast information, and loss functions are constructed for two generic stakeholders: an end-user and a forecaster. Results show that the Met Office tool issues fewer high-level warnings compared with our system for the generic end-user, suggesting the former may not be suitable for risk averse end-users. In addition, raw ensemble forecasts are shown to be unreliable and result in higher losses from warnings.

On the use of Bayesian decision theory for issuing natural hazard warnings

PubMed Central

Stephenson, D. B.; Rougier, J. C.; Neal, R. A.; Mylne, K. R.

2016-01-01

Warnings for natural hazards improve societal resilience and are a good example of decision-making under uncertainty. A warning system is only useful if well defined and thus understood by stakeholders. However, most operational warning systems are heuristic: not formally or transparently defined. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for issuing warnings under uncertainty but has not been fully exploited. Here, a decision theoretic framework is proposed for hazard warnings. The framework allows any number of warning levels and future states of nature, and a mathematical model for constructing the necessary loss functions for both generic and specific end-users is described. The approach is illustrated using one-day ahead warnings of daily severe precipitation over the UK, and compared to the current decision tool used by the UK Met Office. A probability model is proposed to predict precipitation, given ensemble forecast information, and loss functions are constructed for two generic stakeholders: an end-user and a forecaster. Results show that the Met Office tool issues fewer high-level warnings compared with our system for the generic end-user, suggesting the former may not be suitable for risk averse end-users. In addition, raw ensemble forecasts are shown to be unreliable and result in higher losses from warnings. PMID:27843399

To drink or not to drink: Harmful drinking is associated with hyperactivation of reward areas rather than hypoactivation of control areas in men

PubMed Central

Stuke, Heiner; Gutwinski, Stefan; Wiers, Corinde E.; Schmidt, Timo T.; Gröpper, Sonja; Parnack, Jenny; Gawron, Christiane; Attar, Catherine Hindi; Spengler, Stephanie; Walter, Henrik; Heinz, Andreas; Bermpohl, Felix

2016-01-01

Background The maintenance of harmful alcohol use can be considered a reiterated decision in favour of alcohol in concrete drinking occasions. These decisions are often made despite an intention to quit or reduce alcohol consumption. We tested if a hyperactive reward system and/or an impaired cognitive control system contribute to such unfavourable decision-making. Methods In this fMRI study, men with modest to harmful drinking behaviour, which was measured using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT), repeatedly made decisions between alcoholic and nonalcoholic drinks. Based on prior individual ratings, decision pairs were created with an alcoholic decision option considered more desirable but less beneficial by the participant. By correlating AUDIT scores with brain activation during decision-making, we determined areas explicitly related to pro-alcohol decisions in men with greater drinking severity. Results Thirty-eight men participated in our study. Behaviourally, we found a positive correlation between AUDIT scores and the number of decisions for desired alcoholic drinks compared with beneficial nonalcoholic drinks. The fMRI results show that AUDIT scores were positively associated with activation in areas associated with reward and motivation processing (i.e., ventral striatum, amygdala, medial prefrontal cortex) during decisions favouring a desired, nonbeneficial alcoholic drink. Conversely, we did not find hypoactivation in areas associated with self-control (dorsolateral prefrontal cortex). These effects were not present when participants chose a desired, nonbenefical, nonalcoholic drink. Limitations The men participating in our study had to be abstinent and would potentially consume an alcoholic drink at the end of the experiment. Hence, we did not define manifest alcohol dependence as an inclusion criterion and instead focused on less severely affected individuals. Conclusion Our results indicate that with growing drinking severity, decisions for alcoholic drinks are associated with increasing activity in reward-associated neural systems, rather than decreasing activity in self-control–associated systems. PMID:26900791

New care home admission following hospitalisation: How do older people, families and professionals make decisions about discharge destination? A case study narrative analysis.

PubMed

Rhynas, Sarah J; Garrido, Azucena Garcia; Burton, Jennifer K; Logan, Gemma; MacArthur, Juliet

2018-03-24

To gain an in-depth understanding of the decision-making processes involved in the discharge of older people admitted to hospital from home and discharged to a care home, as described in the case records. The decision for an older person to move into a care home is significant and life-changing. The discharge planning literature for older people highlights the integral role of nurses in supporting and facilitating effective discharge. However, little research has been undertaken to explore the experiences of those discharged from hospital to a care home or the processes involved in decision-making. A purposive sample of 10 cases was selected from a cohort of 100 individuals admitted to hospital from home and discharged to a care home. Cases were selected to highlight important personal, relational and structural factors thought to affect the decision-making process. Narrative case studies were created and were thematically analysed to explore the perspectives of each stakeholder group and the conceptualisations of risk which influenced decision-making. Care home discharge decision-making is a complex process involving stakeholders with a range of expertise, experience and perspectives. Decisions take time and considerable involvement of families and the multidisciplinary team. There were significant deficits in documentation which limit the understanding of the process and the patient's voice is often absent from case records. The experiences of older people, families and multidisciplinary team members making care home decisions in the hospital setting require further exploration to identify and define best practice. Nurses have a critical role in the involvement of older people making discharge decisions in hospital, improved documentation of the patient's voice is essential. Health and social care systems must allow older people time to make significant decisions about their living arrangements, adapting to changing medical and social needs. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

To drink or not to drink: Harmful drinking is associated with hyperactivation of reward areas rather than hypoactivation of control areas in men.

PubMed

Stuke, Heiner; Gutwinski, Stefan; Wiers, Corinde E; Schmidt, Timo T; Gröpper, Sonja; Parnack, Jenny; Gawron, Christiane; Hindi Attar, Catherine; Spengler, Stephanie; Walter, Henrik; Heinz, Andreas; Bermpohl, Felix

2016-04-01

The maintenance of harmful alcohol use can be considered a reiterated decision in favour of alcohol in concrete drinking occasions. These decisions are often made despite an intention to quit or reduce alcohol consumption. We tested if a hyperactive reward system and/or an impaired cognitive control system contribute to such unfavourable decision-making. In this fMRI study, men with modest to harmful drinking behaviour, which was measured using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT), repeatedly made decisions between alcoholic and nonalcoholic drinks. Based on prior individual ratings, decision pairs were created with an alcoholic decision option considered more desirable but less beneficial by the participant. By correlating AUDIT scores with brain activation during decision-making, we determined areas explicitly related to pro-alcohol decisions in men with greater drinking severity. Thirty-eight men participated in our study. Behaviourally, we found a positive correlation between AUDIT scores and the number of decisions for desired alcoholic drinks compared with beneficial nonalcoholic drinks. The fMRI results show that AUDIT scores were positively associated with activation in areas associated with reward and motivation processing (i.e., ventral striatum, amygdala, medial prefrontal cortex) during decisions favouring a desired, nonbeneficial alcoholic drink. Conversely, we did not find hypoactivation in areas associated with self-control (dorsolateral prefrontal cortex). These effects were not present when participants chose a desired, nonbenefical, nonalcoholic drink. The men participating in our study had to be abstinent and would potentially consume an alcoholic drink at the end of the experiment. Hence, we did not define manifest alcohol dependence as an inclusion criterion and instead focused on less severely affected individuals. Our results indicate that with growing drinking severity, decisions for alcoholic drinks are associated with increasing activity in reward-associated neural systems, rather than decreasing activity in self-control-associated systems.

Cost-effectiveness of malaria diagnostic methods in sub-Saharan Africa in an era of combination therapy.

PubMed

Shillcutt, Samuel; Morel, Chantal; Goodman, Catherine; Coleman, Paul; Bell, David; Whitty, Christopher J M; Mills, A

2008-02-01

To evaluate the relative cost-effectiveness in different sub-Saharan African settings of presumptive treatment, field-standard microscopy and rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) to diagnose malaria. We used a decision tree model and probabilistic sensitivity analysis applied to outpatients presenting at rural health facilities with suspected malaria. Costs and effects encompassed those for both patients positive on RDT (assuming artemisinin-based combination therapy) and febrile patients negative on RDT (assuming antibiotic treatment). Interventions were defined as cost-effective if they were less costly and more effective or had an incremental cost per disability-adjusted life year averted of less than US$ 150. Data were drawn from published and unpublished sources, supplemented with expert opinion. RDTs were cost-effective compared with presumptive treatment up to high prevalences of Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia. Decision-makers can be at least 50% confident of this result below 81% malaria prevalence, and 95% confident below 62% prevalence, a level seldom exceeded in practice. RDTs were more than 50% likely to be cost-saving below 58% prevalence. Relative to microscopy, RDTs were more than 85% likely to be cost-effective across all prevalence levels, reflecting their expected better accuracy under real-life conditions. Results were robust to extensive sensitivity analysis. The cost-effectiveness of RDTs mainly reflected improved treatment and health outcomes for non-malarial febrile illness, plus savings in antimalarial drug costs. Results were dependent on the assumption that prescribers used test results to guide treatment decisions. RDTs have the potential to be cost-effective in most parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Appropriate management of malaria and non-malarial febrile illnesses is required to reap the full benefits of these tests.

Development of the Expert System Domain Advisor and Analysis Tool

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-09-01

analysis. Typical of the current methods in use at this time is the " tarot metric". This method defines a decision rule whose output is whether to go...B - TAROT METRIC B. ::TTRODUCTION The system chart of ESEM, Figure 1, shows the following three risk-based decision points: i. At prolect initiation...34 decisions. B-I 201 PRELIMINARY T" B-I. Evaluais Factan for ES Deyelopsineg FACTORS POSSIBLE VALUE RATINGS TAROT metric (overall suitability) Poor, Fair

Adding flexibility to the search for robust portfolios in non-linear water resource planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomlinson, James; Harou, Julien

2017-04-01

To date robust optimisation of water supply systems has sought to find portfolios or strategies that are robust to a range of uncertainties or scenarios. The search for a single portfolio that is robust in all scenarios is necessarily suboptimal compared to portfolios optimised for a single scenario deterministic future. By contrast establishing a separate portfolio for each future scenario is unhelpful to the planner who must make a single decision today under deep uncertainty. In this work we show that a middle ground is possible by allowing a small number of different portfolios to be found that are each robust to a different subset of the global scenarios. We use evolutionary algorithms and a simple water resource system model to demonstrate this approach. The primary contribution is to demonstrate that flexibility can be added to the search for portfolios, in complex non-linear systems, at the expense of complete robustness across all future scenarios. In this context we define flexibility as the ability to design a portfolio in which some decisions are delayed, but those decisions that are not delayed are themselves shown to be robust to the future. We recognise that some decisions in our portfolio are more important than others. An adaptive portfolio is found by allowing no flexibility for these near-term "important" decisions, but maintaining flexibility in the remaining longer term decisions. In this sense we create an effective 2-stage decision process for a non-linear water resource supply system. We show how this reduces a measure of regret versus the inflexible robust solution for the same system.

Public funding of pharmaceuticals in The Netherlands: investigating the effect of evidence, process and context on CVZ decision-making.

PubMed

Cerri, Karin H; Knapp, Martin; Fernandez, Jose-Luis

2014-09-01

The College Voor Zorgverzekeringen (CVZ) provides guidance to the Dutch healthcare system on funding and use of new pharmaceutical technologies. This study examined the impact of evidence, process and context factors on CVZ decisions in 2004-2009. A data set of CVZ decisions pertaining to pharmaceutical technologies was created, including 29 variables extracted from published information. A three-category outcome variable was used, defined as the decision to 'recommend', 'restrict' or 'not recommend' a technology. Technologies included in list 1A/1B or on the expensive drug list were considered recommended; those included in list 2 or for which patient co-payment is required were considered restricted; technologies not included on any reimbursement list were classified as 'not recommended'. Using multinomial logistic regression, the relative contribution of explanatory variables on CVZ decisions was assessed. In all, 244 technology appraisals (256 technologies) were analysed, with 51%, of technologies recommended, 33% restricted and 16% not recommended by CVZ for funding. The multinomial model showed significant associations (p ≤ 0.10) between CVZ outcome and several variables, including: (1) use of an active comparator and demonstration of statistical superiority of the primary endpoint in clinical trials, (2) pharmaceutical budget impact associated with introduction of the technology, (3) therapeutic indication and (4) prevalence of the target population. Results confirm the value of a comprehensive and multivariate approach to understanding CVZ decision-making.

Deciding about Decision Models of Remember and Know Judgments: A Reply to Murdock (2006)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Macmillan, Neil A.; Rotello, Caren M.

2006-01-01

B. B. Murdock (2006; see record 2006-08257-009) has interpreted remember-know data within a decision space defined by item and associative information, the fundamental variables in his general recognition memory model TODAM (B. B. Murdock, 1982). He has related parameters of this extended model to stimulus characteristics for several classic…

Reframing as a Best Practice: The Priority of Process in Highly Adaptive Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peters, Gary B.

2008-01-01

The development and practice of a well-defined process in which decisions are fully contemplated is needed in education today. The complexity of societal issues requires new depths of understanding, appreciation, and communication. Framing refers to the way a situation is described or viewed; reframing is the process of expanding and enriching the…

Use of Advance Directives: A Social Work Perspective on the Myth versus the Reality.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoffman, Molly K.

1994-01-01

Considers Directive to Physician, Durable Power of Attorney for Healthcare Decisions, and Medical Ethics Decision Form. Notes importance of process individuals go through in defining what quality of life means to them. Sees current struggle being individual articulation of one's wishes based on personal definition of quality of life set forth in…

Reciprocal Dialogue between Educational Decision Makers and Students of Color: Opportunities and Obstacles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bertrand, Melanie

2014-01-01

Purpose: This article explores the possibilities for reciprocal dialogue between educational decision makers and Students of Color. Such dialogue--defined as interactions in which participants build on each other's words--may provide the means to develop creative ways to address manifestations of systemic racism in education. The article uses…

What's New in Decision Support: Executive Information Systems. AIR 1990 Annual Forum Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Viehland, Dennis W.

The Executive information System (EIS), a decision support system for the executive, is defined, a comparison is made between EIS and its predecessors, and the differences between EIS in academic institutions vis-a-vis private business firms are discussed. An outline is also provided of the technological and data requirements for executive…

Supporting Managers, Hearing the Public: A Decision Support Approach for Evaluating Ecosystem Services and Social Benefits from Urban Wetland and Stream-Buffer Restoration

EPA Science Inventory

Public officials and environmental managers face difficult decisions about how to allocate limited funds to the most beneficial restoration projects and how to define what a “beneficial” project is. Beneficial to what? Or to whom? And where? Traditionally, managers ha...

76 FR 6553 - Time and Manner for Electing Capital Asset Treatment for Certain Self-Created Musical Works

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-07

... requests to hold a public hearing were received, and no hearing was held. This Treasury decision adopts the... It has been determined that this Treasury decision is not a significant regulatory action as defined... Counsel (Income Tax & Accounting). However, other personnel from the IRS and the Treasury Department...

Envisioning the Impact of Decisions Made about Early Childhood Professional Development Systems by Different Constituent Groups

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Apple, Peggy; McMullen, Mary Benson

2007-01-01

In this article the authors explore the need for early childhood practitioners and scholars to engage in joint problem solving to create and support early childhood education and care (ECEC) professional development systems in which all constituents benefit. Primary constituent groups and principal decision-making bodies are defined and analyzed,…

Much Needed Structure [Structured Decision-Making with DMRCS. Define-Measure-Reduce-Combine-Select

DOE PAGES

Anderson-Cook, Christine M.; Lu, Lu

2015-10-01

We have described a new DMRCS process for structured decision making, which mirrors the approach of the DMAIC process which has become so popular within Lean Six Sigma. By dividing a complex often unstructured process into distinct steps, we hope to have made the task of balancing multiple competing objectives less daunting.

The Organizational Decision Making Climate of Issues Management Programs: A Case Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wills, Sandra

A study examined the decision making climate of organizations that are using issues management and what type of model of issues management is followed--theorists have been attempting to define issues management since it began appearing 20 year ago. Subjects, 112 males and 30 females who were professionals working in the area of issues management…

Leadership and Loyalty: The Basic Value Dilemmas of the Educational Administrator in the 70's.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coleman, Peter

Many educational decisions are made on issues over which conflict occurs because of value differences among the groups involved. The decision-making model proposed here is a political or conflict model. It defines an organization as stable patterns of interactions between coalitions of groups having a collective identity and pursuing interests and…

Stochastic satisficing account of confidence in uncertain value-based decisions

PubMed Central

Bahrami, Bahador; Keramati, Mehdi

2018-01-01

Every day we make choices under uncertainty; choosing what route to work or which queue in a supermarket to take, for example. It is unclear how outcome variance, e.g. uncertainty about waiting time in a queue, affects decisions and confidence when outcome is stochastic and continuous. How does one evaluate and choose between an option with unreliable but high expected reward, and an option with more certain but lower expected reward? Here we used an experimental design where two choices’ payoffs took continuous values, to examine the effect of outcome variance on decision and confidence. We found that our participants’ probability of choosing the good (high expected reward) option decreased when the good or the bad options’ payoffs were more variable. Their confidence ratings were affected by outcome variability, but only when choosing the good option. Unlike perceptual detection tasks, confidence ratings correlated only weakly with decisions’ time, but correlated with the consistency of trial-by-trial choices. Inspired by the satisficing heuristic, we propose a “stochastic satisficing” (SSAT) model for evaluating options with continuous uncertain outcomes. In this model, options are evaluated by their probability of exceeding an acceptability threshold, and confidence reports scale with the chosen option’s thus-defined satisficing probability. Participants’ decisions were best explained by an expected reward model, while the SSAT model provided the best prediction of decision confidence. We further tested and verified the predictions of this model in a second experiment. Our model and experimental results generalize the models of metacognition from perceptual detection tasks to continuous-value based decisions. Finally, we discuss how the stochastic satisficing account of decision confidence serves psychological and social purposes associated with the evaluation, communication and justification of decision-making. PMID:29621325

Information asymmetry, social networking site word of mouth, and mobility effects on social commerce in Korea.

PubMed

Hwang, In Jeong; Lee, Bong Gyou; Kim, Ki Youn

2014-02-01

The purpose of this research is to examine the issues that affect customers' behavioral character and purchasing behavior. The study proposes a research hypothesis with independent variables that include social presence, trust, and information asymmetry, and the dependent variable purchase decision making, to explain differentiated customer decision making processes in social commerce (S-commerce). To prove the hypothesis, positive verification was performed by focusing on mediating effects through a customer uncertainty variable and moderating effects through mobility and social networking site word of mouth (SNS WOM) variables. The number of studies on customer trends has rapidly increased together with the market size of S-commerce. However, few studies have examined the negative variables that make customers hesitant to make decisions in S-commerce. This study investigates the causes of customer uncertainty and focuses on deducing the control variables that offset this negative relationship. The study finds that in customers' S-commerce purchasing actions, the SNS WOM and mobility variables show control effects between information asymmetry and uncertainty and between trust and uncertainty. Additionally, this research defines the variables related to customer uncertainty that are hidden in S-commerce, and statistically verifies their relationship. The research results can be used in Internet marketing practices to establish marketing mix strategies for customer demand or as research data to predict customer behavior. The results are scientifically meaningful as a precedent for research on customers in S-commerce.

The limits of parental responsibility regarding medical treatment decisions.

PubMed

Woolley, Sarah L

2011-11-01

Parental responsibility (PR) was a concept introduced by the Children Act (CA) 1989 which aimed to replace the outdated notion of parental rights and duties which regarded children as parental possessions. Section 3(1) CA 1989 defines PR as 'all the rights, duties, powers, responsibilities and authority which by law a parent of a child has in relation to the child'. In exercising PR, individuals may make medical treatment decisions on children's behalf. Medical decision-making is one area of law where both children and the state can intercede and limit parental decision-making. Competent children can consent to treatment and the state can interfere if parental decisions are not seemingly in the child's 'best interests'. This article examines the concept, and limitations, of PR in relation to medical treatment decision-making.

Factors in adoption of a fire department wellness program: champ-and-chief model.

PubMed

Kuehl, Hannah; Mabry, Linda; Elliot, Diane L; Kuehl, Kerry S; Favorite, Kim C

2013-04-01

To identify and evaluate determinants of fire departments' wellness program adoption. The Promoting Healthy Lifestyles: Alternative Models' Effects fire service wellness program was offered for free to all medium-sized fire departments in Oregon and Washington. An invitation to participate was mailed to key fire department decision makers (chief, union president, and wellness officer). These key decision makers from 12 sites that adopted the program and 24 matched nonadopting sites were interviewed and results were analyzed to define adoption determinants. Three adoption requirements were identified: (1) mailer connection, (2) local firefighter wellness champion, and (3) willing fire chief, whereas a fourth set of organizational factors had little or no impact on adoption including previous and ongoing wellness activities, financial pressures, and resistance to change. Findings identified determinants of medium-sized fire service wellness program adoption.

Sleep-dependent modulation of affectively guided decision-making.

PubMed

Pace-Schott, Edward F; Nave, Genevieve; Morgan, Alexandra; Spencer, Rebecca M C

2012-02-01

A question of great interest in current sleep research is whether and how sleep might facilitate complex cognitive skills such as decision-making. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) was used to investigate effects of sleep on affect-guided decision-making. After a brief standardized preview of the IGT that was insufficient to learn its underlying rule, participants underwent a 12-h delay containing either a normal night's sleep (Sleep group; N = 28) or continuous daytime wake (Wake group; N = 26). Following the delay, both groups performed the full IGT. To control for circadian effects, two additional groups performed both the preview and the full task either in the morning (N = 17) or the evening (N = 21). In the IGT, four decks of cards were presented. Draws from two 'advantageous decks' yielded low play-money rewards, occasional low losses and, over multiple draws, a net gain. Draws from 'disadvantageous' decks yielded high rewards, occasional high losses and, over multiple draws, a net loss. Participants were instructed to win and avoid losing as much as possible, and better performance was defined as more advantageous draws. Relative to the wake group, the sleep group showed both superior behavioral outcome (more advantageous draws) and superior rule understanding (blindly judged from statements written at task completion). Neither measure differentiated the two control groups. These results illustrate a role of sleep in optimizing decision-making, a benefit that may be brought about by changes in underlying emotional or cognitive processes. © 2011 European Sleep Research Society.

The Burden of Cystoscopic Bladder Cancer Surveillance: Anxiety, Discomfort, and Patient Preferences for Decision Making.

PubMed

Koo, Kevin; Zubkoff, Lisa; Sirovich, Brenda E; Goodney, Philip P; Robertson, Douglas J; Seigne, John D; Schroeck, Florian R

2017-10-01

To examine discomfort, anxiety, and preferences for decision making in patients undergoing surveillance cystoscopy for non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC). Veterans with a prior diagnosis of NMIBC completed validated survey instruments assessing procedural discomfort, worry, and satisfaction, and were invited to participate in semistructured focus groups about their experience and desire to be involved in surveillance decision making. Focus group transcripts were analyzed qualitatively, using (1) systematic iterative coding, (2) triangulation involving multiple perspectives from urologists and an implementation scientist, and (3) searching and accounting for disconfirming evidence. Twelve patients participated in 3 focus groups. Median number of lifetime cystoscopy procedures was 6.5 (interquartile range 4-10). Based on survey responses, two-thirds of participants (64%) experienced some degree of procedural discomfort or worry, and all participants reported improvement in at least 2 dimensions of overall well-being following cystoscopy. Qualitative analysis of the focus groups indicated that participants experience preprocedural anxiety and worry about their disease. Although many participants did not perceive themselves as having a defined role in decision making surrounding their surveillance care, their preferences to be involved in decision making varied widely, ranging from acceptance of the physician's recommendation, to uncertainty, to dissatisfaction with not being involved more in determining the intensity of surveillance care. Many patients with NMIBC experience discomfort, anxiety, and worry related to disease progression and not only cystoscopy. Although some patients are content to defer surveillance decisions to their physicians, others prefer to be more involved. Future work should focus on defining patient-centered approaches to surveillance decision making. Published by Elsevier Inc.

How do stakeholders from multiple hierarchical levels of a large provincial health system define engagement? A qualitative study.

PubMed

Norris, Jill M; White, Deborah E; Nowell, Lorelli; Mrklas, Kelly; Stelfox, Henry T

2017-08-01

Engaging stakeholders from varied organizational levels is essential to successful healthcare quality improvement. However, engagement has been hard to achieve and to measure across diverse stakeholders. Further, current implementation science models provide little clarity about what engagement means, despite its importance. The aim of this study was to understand how stakeholders of healthcare improvement initiatives defined engagement. Participants (n = 86) in this qualitative thematic study were purposively sampled for individual interviews. Participants included leaders, core members, frontline clinicians, support personnel, and other stakeholders of Strategic Clinical Networks in Alberta Health Services, a Canadian provincial health system with over 108,000 employees. We used an iterative thematic approach to analyze participants' responses to the question, "How do you define engagement?" Regardless of their organizational role, participants defined engagement through three interrelated themes. First, engagement was active participation from willing and committed stakeholders, with levels that ranged from information sharing to full decision-making. Second, engagement centered on a shared decision-making process about meaningful change for everyone "around the table," those who are most impacted. Third, engagement was two-way interactions that began early in the change process, where exchanges were respectful and all stakeholders felt heard and understood. This study highlights the commonalities of how stakeholders in a large healthcare system defined engagement-a shared understanding and terminology-to guide and improve stakeholder engagement. Overall, engagement was an active and committed decision-making about a meaningful problem through respectful interactions and dialog where everyone's voice is considered. Our results may be used in conjunction with current implementation models to provide clarity about what engagement means and how to engage various stakeholders.

The choice of primary energy source including PV installation for providing electric energy to a public utility building - a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radomski, Bartosz; Ćwiek, Barbara; Mróz, Tomasz M.

2017-11-01

The paper presents multicriteria decision aid analysis of the choice of PV installation providing electric energy to a public utility building. From the energy management point of view electricity obtained by solar radiation has become crucial renewable energy source. Application of PV installations may occur a profitable solution from energy, economic and ecologic point of view for both existing and newly erected buildings. Featured variants of PV installations have been assessed by multicriteria analysis based on ANP (Analytic Network Process) method. Technical, economical, energy and environmental criteria have been identified as main decision criteria. Defined set of decision criteria has an open character and can be modified in the dialog process between the decision-maker and the expert - in the present case, an expert in planning of development of energy supply systems. The proposed approach has been used to evaluate three variants of PV installation acceptable for existing educational building located in Poznań, Poland - the building of Faculty of Chemical Technology, Poznań University of Technology. Multi-criteria analysis based on ANP method and the calculation software Super Decisions has proven to be an effective tool for energy planning, leading to the indication of the recommended variant of PV installation in existing and newly erected public buildings. Achieved results show prospects and possibilities of rational renewable energy usage as complex solution to public utility buildings.

A cognitive mobile BTS solution with software-defined radioelectric sensing.

PubMed

Muñoz, Jorge; Alonso, Javier Vales; García, Francisco Quiñoy; Costas, Sergio; Pillado, Marcos; Castaño, Francisco Javier González; Sánchez, Manuel García; Valcarce, Roberto López; Bravo, Cristina López

2013-02-05

Private communications inside large vehicles such as ships may be effectively provided using standard cellular systems. In this paper we propose a new solution based on software-defined radio with electromagnetic sensing support. Software-defined radio allows low-cost developments and, potentially, added-value services not available in commercial cellular networks. The platform of reference, OpenBTS, only supports single-channel cells. Our proposal, however, has the ability of changing BTS channel frequency without disrupting ongoing communications. This ability should be mandatory in vehicular environments, where neighbouring cell configurations may change rapidly, so a moving cell must be reconfigured in real-time to avoid interferences. Full details about frequency occupancy sensing and the channel reselection procedure are provided in this paper. Moreover, a procedure for fast terminal detection is proposed. This may be decisive in emergency situations, e.g., if someone falls overboard. Different tests confirm the feasibility of our proposal and its compatibility with commercial GSM terminals.

A Cognitive Mobile BTS Solution with Software-Defined Radioelectric Sensing

PubMed Central

Muñoz, Jorge; Alonso, Javier Vales; García, Francisco Quiñoy; Costas, Secundino; Pillado, Marcos; Castaño, Francisco Javier González; Sánchez, Manuel Garćia; Valcarce, Roberto López; Bravo, Cristina López

2013-01-01

Private communications inside large vehicles such as ships may be effectively provided using standard cellular systems. In this paper we propose a new solution based on software-defined radio with electromagnetic sensing support. Software-defined radio allows low-cost developments and, potentially, added-value services not available in commercial cellular networks. The platform of reference, OpenBTS, only supports single-channel cells. Our proposal, however, has the ability of changing BTS channel frequency without disrupting ongoing communications. This ability should be mandatory in vehicular environments, where neighbouring cell configurations may change rapidly, so a moving cell must be reconfigured in real-time to avoid interferences. Full details about frequency occupancy sensing and the channel reselection procedure are provided in this paper. Moreover, a procedure for fast terminal detection is proposed. This may be decisive in emergency situations, e.g., if someone falls overboard. Different tests confirm the feasibility of our proposal and its compatibility with commercial GSM terminals. PMID:23385417

20 CFR 416.1530 - Payment of fees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION SUPPLEMENTAL SECURITY INCOME FOR THE AGED, BLIND, AND..., as defined in § 416.1503, the amount of the fee allowed by a Federal court in a proceeding under... demonstration project, as defined in § 416.1517, and as a result of the determination or decision you have past...

Illuminative Evaluation: Meeting the Special Needs of Feminist Projects.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shapiro, Joan P.; Reed, Beth

"Illuminative evaluation," as defined by Parlett and Hamilton, "is not a standard methodological package but a general strategy. It aims to be both adaptable and eclectic. The choice of research tactics follows not from research doctrine, but from decisions in each case as to the best available techniques; the problem defines the…

Managing the environmental impacts of land transport: integrating environmental analysis with urban planning.

PubMed

Irving, Paul; Moncrieff, Ian

2004-12-01

Ecological systems have limits or thresholds that vary by pollutant type, emissions sources and the sensitivity of a given location. Human health can also indicate sensitivity. Good environmental management requires any problem to be defined to obtain efficient and effective solutions. Cities are where transport activities, effects and resource management decisions are often most focussed. The New Zealand Ministry of Transport has developed two environmental management tools. The Vehicle Fleet Model (VFM) is a predictive database of the environmental performance of the New Zealand traffic fleet (and rail fleet). It calculates indices of local air quality, stormwater, and greenhouse gases emissions. The second is an analytical process based on Environmental Capacity Analysis (ECA). Information on local traffic is combined with environmental performance data from the Vehicle Fleet Model. This can be integrated within a live, geo-spatially defined analysis of the overall environmental effects within a defined local area. Variations in urban form and activity (traffic and other) that contribute to environmental effects can be tracked. This enables analysis of a range of mitigation strategies that may contribute, now or in the future, to maintaining environmental thresholds or meeting targets. A case study of the application of this approach was conducted within Waitakere City. The focus was on improving the understanding of the relative significance of stormwater contaminants derived from land transport.

Measuring the patient experience.

PubMed

Lees, Carolyn

2011-01-01

This paper examines the complex issues of measuring the patient experience and evaluating the quality of health care. It discusses the use of surveys, patient stories and narrative methods of data collection in an attempt to define quality and how it should be measured. A recent Department of Health (DH) document insists that patients will be at the heart of decision making in the NHS by having greater control in informing strategic commissioning decisions (DH 2010c). The government aims to improve patient experience, enabling patients to rate services according to the quality of care they receive. This will be carried out using information generated by patients. This paper discusses the advantages and disadvantages of using surveys in gathering patient satisfaction data. It considers the value of surveys in measuring quality of care and appraises their usefulness in strengthening patients' collective voice. The paper investigates the use of another source of feedback - it examines the design of qualitative data collection methods as a means of gaining feedback from service users in encouraging providers of health care to be more responsive to their needs. Too often, patients are expected to fit the services, rather than services meeting the patients' needs. The most effective way of exploring and representing the patient's experience is by using a mixed-method approach. In other words, an integrated approach with the use of surveys and more narrative methods, such as patient stories, will effectively define quality and how it should be measured, ensuring that the focus is always on what matters most to patients.

Can Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging Improve Success Rates in CNS Drug Discovery?

PubMed Central

Borsook, David; Hargreaves, Richard; Becerra, Lino

2011-01-01

Introduction The bar for developing new treatments for CNS disease is getting progressively higher and fewer novel mechanisms are being discovered, validated and developed. The high costs of drug discovery necessitate early decisions to ensure the best molecules and hypotheses are tested in expensive late stage clinical trials. The discovery of brain imaging biomarkers that can bridge preclinical to clinical CNS drug discovery and provide a ‘language of translation’ affords the opportunity to improve the objectivity of decision-making. Areas Covered This review discusses the benefits, challenges and potential issues of using a science based biomarker strategy to change the paradigm of CNS drug development and increase success rates in the discovery of new medicines. The authors have summarized PubMed and Google Scholar based publication searches to identify recent advances in functional, structural and chemical brain imaging and have discussed how these techniques may be useful in defining CNS disease state and drug effects during drug development. Expert opinion The use of novel brain imaging biomarkers holds the bold promise of making neuroscience drug discovery smarter by increasing the objectivity of decision making thereby improving the probability of success of identifying useful drugs to treat CNS diseases. Functional imaging holds the promise to: (1) define pharmacodynamic markers as an index of target engagement (2) improve translational medicine paradigms to predict efficacy; (3) evaluate CNS efficacy and safety based on brain activation; (4) determine brain activity drug dose-response relationships and (5) provide an objective evaluation of symptom response and disease modification. PMID:21765857

SCIENTIFIC AND SOCIAL VALUE JUDGMENTS FOR ORPHAN DRUGS IN HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT.

PubMed

Nicod, Elena; Kanavos, Panos

2016-01-01

We explore how broader aspects of a treatment's value and the impact of the condition on patients not captured by routine health technology assessment (HTA) methods using clinical and economic evidence, defined as "other considerations," may influence HTA processes in different settings. Countries included were England, Scotland, Sweden, and France. Data sources were the publicly available reports on HTA recommendations. Ten drugs with European Medicines Agency orphan designation and appraised in England were selected. Qualitative thematic analysis was used to systematically identify and code all "other considerations" based on a previously developed methodological framework, which also coded whether it was provided by stakeholders, and how it influenced the decision. A classification framework of scientific and social value judgments was developed and used throughout the study. A total of 125 "other considerations" were identified and grouped into ten subcategories based on the information provided. Eighteen to 100 percent of these, depending on the agency, were put forward as one of the main reasons for the final decision potentially contributing to accepting a higher incremental cost-effectiveness ratio or uncertain evidence. Some of these were nonquantified or nonelicited and pertained to the assessor's judgment. A taxonomy of these value judgments was created to be used in future cases. Results also contributed to better defining the determinants of social value and improving accountability for reasonableness. The systematic identification of the scientific and social value judgments enables to better understanding the dimensions of value, which can be used to improve their transparency and consistent use across decisions and settings.

Measurement in comparative effectiveness research.

PubMed

Chubak, Jessica; Rutter, Carolyn M; Kamineni, Aruna; Johnson, Eric A; Stout, Natasha K; Weiss, Noel S; Doria-Rose, V Paul; Doubeni, Chyke A; Buist, Diana S M

2013-05-01

Comparative effectiveness research (CER) on preventive services can shape policy and help patients, their providers, and public health practitioners select regimens and programs for disease prevention. Patients and providers need information about the relative effectiveness of various regimens they may choose. Decision makers need information about the relative effectiveness of various programs to offer or recommend. The goal of this paper is to define and differentiate measures of relative effectiveness of regimens and programs for disease prevention. Cancer screening is used to demonstrate how these measures differ in an example of two hypothetical screening regimens and programs. Conceptually and algebraically defined measures of relative regimen and program effectiveness also are presented. The measures evaluate preventive services that range from individual tests through organized, population-wide prevention programs. Examples illustrate how effective screening regimens may not result in effective screening programs and how measures can vary across subgroups and settings. Both regimen and program relative effectiveness measures assess benefits of prevention services in real-world settings, but each addresses different scientific and policy questions. As the body of CER grows, a common lexicon for various measures of relative effectiveness becomes increasingly important to facilitate communication and shared understanding among researchers, healthcare providers, patients, and policymakers. Copyright © 2013 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.

Multi-criteria analysis for PM10 planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pisoni, Enrico; Carnevale, Claudio; Volta, Marialuisa

To implement sound air quality policies, Regulatory Agencies require tools to evaluate outcomes and costs associated to different emission reduction strategies. These tools are even more useful when considering atmospheric PM10 concentrations due to the complex nonlinear processes that affect production and accumulation of the secondary fraction of this pollutant. The approaches presented in the literature (Integrated Assessment Modeling) are mainly cost-benefit and cost-effective analysis. In this work, the formulation of a multi-objective problem to control particulate matter is proposed. The methodology defines: (a) the control objectives (the air quality indicator and the emission reduction cost functions); (b) the decision variables (precursor emission reductions); (c) the problem constraints (maximum feasible technology reductions). The cause-effect relations between air quality indicators and decision variables are identified tuning nonlinear source-receptor models. The multi-objective problem solution provides to the decision maker a set of not-dominated scenarios representing the efficient trade-off between the air quality benefit and the internal costs (emission reduction technology costs). The methodology has been implemented for Northern Italy, often affected by high long-term exposure to PM10. The source-receptor models used in the multi-objective analysis are identified processing long-term simulations of GAMES multiphase modeling system, performed in the framework of CAFE-Citydelta project.

Female sterilization: update on clinical efficacy, side effects and contraindications.

PubMed

Gizzo, Salvatore; Bertocco, Anna; Saccardi, Carlo; Di Gangi, Stefania; Litta, Pietro Salvatore; D'antona, Donato; Nardelli, Giovanni Battista

2014-10-01

The aim of this review is to compare studies concerning female sterilization in order to define the most suitable approach and device for each patient considering timing, safety, cost-effectiveness, failure rate, complication rate and patient satisfaction. A systematic literature search was conducted in electronic databases MEDLINE-EMBASE-Sciencedirect and Cochrane Library between 2000 and 2012. All original descriptions, case reports, retrospective and review articles on tubal sterilization methods have been considered. Outcome measures were effectiveness, tolerability, procedure complications and female satisfaction. The ideal female sterilization system should be a simple, safe, highly efficient, easily learned, inexpensive, one-time procedure without negative side-effects. Nowadays, the trans-cervical approach is associated with minimal postoperative pain, allowing short hospitalization and fast resumption of daily activities. Laparoscopic and laparotomic approaches are considered second choices, since, particularly in developing countries, the transcervical hysteroscopic methods will increasingly spread within gynaecological clinical practice. Safety issues, hospital stay, costs and surgeons' experience are important factors in decision-making of the method for female sterilization. Hysteroscopic devices should be preferred when possible. The counselling time remains a fundamental step in choice. The decision concerning method depends on the setting, the surgeon's experience, the country's economical development and the woman's preference.

Selecting essential information for biosurveillance--a multi-criteria decision analysis.

PubMed

Generous, Nicholas; Margevicius, Kristen J; Taylor-McCabe, Kirsten J; Brown, Mac; Daniel, W Brent; Castro, Lauren; Hengartner, Andrea; Deshpande, Alina

2014-01-01

The National Strategy for Biosurveillance defines biosurveillance as "the process of gathering, integrating, interpreting, and communicating essential information related to all-hazards threats or disease activity affecting human, animal, or plant health to achieve early detection and warning, contribute to overall situational awareness of the health aspects of an incident, and to enable better decision-making at all levels." However, the strategy does not specify how "essential information" is to be identified and integrated into the current biosurveillance enterprise, or what the metrics qualify information as being "essential". The question of data stream identification and selection requires a structured methodology that can systematically evaluate the tradeoffs between the many criteria that need to be taken in account. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory, a type of multi-criteria decision analysis, can provide a well-defined, structured approach that can offer solutions to this problem. While the use of Multi-Attribute Utility Theoryas a practical method to apply formal scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex, multi-criteria problems has been demonstrated in a variety of fields, this method has never been applied to decision support in biosurveillance.We have developed a formalized decision support analytic framework that can facilitate identification of "essential information" for use in biosurveillance systems or processes and we offer this framework to the global BSV community as a tool for optimizing the BSV enterprise. To demonstrate utility, we applied the framework to the problem of evaluating data streams for use in an integrated global infectious disease surveillance system.

Playing, sitting out, and observing the game: an investigation of faculty members' perspectives on political behavior in ethical decision making.

PubMed

Medeiros, Kelsey E; Gibson, Carter; Mecca, Jensen T; Giorgini, Vincent; Connelly, Shane; Mumford, Michael D

2015-01-01

Ethical dilemmas are inherently ambiguous, complex, and ill-defined. Additionally, these dilemmas involve multiple stakeholders. These characteristics may induce political behavior as a resolution tactic. Thus, the goal of the present effort was to investigate perspectives on politics among researchers in an ethical decision-making context. A qualitative analysis of interviews with university faculty members revealed that faculty members' perspectives on political behavior in an ethical decision-making context fall into a number of categories, including positive, negative, and realistic views of political activity. The implications of these varying perspectives on ethical decision making are discussed.

End-of-Life Care Decisions: Importance of Reviewing Systems and Limitations After 2 Recent North American Cases

PubMed Central

Burkle, Christopher M.; Benson, Jeffre J.

2012-01-01

Two recent and unfortunate North American cases involving end-of-life treatment highlight the difficulties surrounding medical futility conflicts. As countries have explored the greater influence that patients and their representatives may play on end-of-life treatment decisions, the benefits and struggles involved with such a movement must be appreciated. These 2 cases are used to examine the present systems existing in the United States and Canada for resolving end-of-life decisions, including the difficulty in defining medical futility, the role of medical ethics committees, and controversies involving surrogate decision making. PMID:23127734

Context influences decision-making in boys with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder: A comparison of traditional and novel choice-impulsivity paradigms.

PubMed

Patros, Connor H G; Alderson, R Matt; Lea, Sarah E; Tarle, Stephanie J

2017-02-01

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is characterized by an impaired ability to maintain attention and/or hyperactivity/impulsivity. Impulsivity is frequently defined as the preference for small, immediate rewards over larger, delayed rewards, and has been associated with a variety of negative outcomes such as risky behavior and academic difficulty. Extant studies have uniformly utilized the traditional paradigm of presenting two response choices, which limits the generalization of findings to scenarios in which children/adolescents are faced with dichotomous decisions. The current study is the first to examine the effect of manipulating the number of available response options on impulsive decision-making in boys with and without ADHD. A total of 39 boys (ADHD = 16, typically developing [TD] = 23) aged 8-12 years completed a traditional two-choice impulsivity task and a novel five-choice impulsivity task to examine the effect of manipulating the number of choice responses (two vs five) on impulsive decision-making. A five-choice task was utilized as it presents a more continuous array of choice options when compared to the typical two-choice task, and is comparable given its methodological similarity to the two-choice task. Results suggested that boys with ADHD were significantly more impulsive than TD boys during the two-choice task, but not during the five-choice task. Collectively, these findings suggest that ADHD-related impulsivity is not ubiquitous, but rather dependent on variation in demands and/or context. Further, these findings highlight the importance of examining ADHD-related decision-making within the context of alternative paradigms, as the exclusive utilization of two-choice tasks may promote inaccurate conceptualizations of the disorder.

A Methodology to Support Decision Making in Flood Plan Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biscarini, C.; di Francesco, S.; Manciola, P.

2009-04-01

The focus of the present document is on specific decision-making aspects of flood risk analysis. A flood is the result of runoff from rainfall in quantities too great to be confined in the low-water channels of streams. Little can be done to prevent a major flood, but we may be able to minimize damage within the flood plain of the river. This broad definition encompasses many possible mitigation measures. Floodplain management considers the integrated view of all engineering, nonstructural, and administrative measures for managing (minimizing) losses due to flooding on a comprehensive scale. The structural measures are the flood-control facilities designed according to flood characteristics and they include reservoirs, diversions, levees or dikes, and channel modifications. Flood-control measures that modify the damage susceptibility of floodplains are usually referred to as nonstructural measures and may require minor engineering works. On the other hand, those measures designed to modify the damage potential of permanent facilities are called non-structural and allow reducing potential damage during a flood event. Technical information is required to support the tasks of problem definition, plan formulation, and plan evaluation. The specific information needed and the related level of detail are dependent on the nature of the problem, the potential solutions, and the sensitivity of the findings to the basic information. Actions performed to set up and lay out the study are preliminary to the detailed analysis. They include: defining the study scope and detail, the field data collection, a review of previous studies and reports, and the assembly of needed maps and surveys. Risk analysis can be viewed as having many components: risk assessment, risk communication and risk management. Risk assessment comprises an analysis of the technical aspects of the problem, risk communication deals with conveying the information and risk management involves the decision process. In the present paper we propose a novel methodology for supporting the priority setting in the assessment of such issues, beyond the typical "expected value" approach. Scientific contribution and management aspects are merged to create a simplified method for plan basin implementation, based on risk and economic analyses. However, the economic evaluation is not the sole criterion for flood-damage reduction plan selection. Among the different criteria that are relevant to the decision process, safety and quality of human life, economic damage, expenses related with the chosen measures and environmental issues should play a fundamental role on the decisions made by the authorities. Some numerical indices, taking in account administrative, technical, economical and risk aspects, are defined and are combined together in a mathematical formula that defines a Priority Index (PI). In particular, the priority index defines a ranking of priority interventions, thus allowing the formulation of the investment plan. The research is mainly focused on the technical factors of risk assessment, providing quantitative and qualitative estimates of possible alternatives, containing measures of the risk associated with those alternatives. Moreover, the issues of risk management are analyzed, in particular with respect to the role of decision making in the presence of risk information. However, a great effort is devoted to make this index easy to be formulated and effective to allow a clear and transparent comparison between the alternatives. Summarizing this document describes a major- steps for incorporation of risk analysis into the decision making process: framing of the problem in terms of risk analysis, application of appropriate tools and techniques to obtain quantified results, use of the quantified results in the choice of structural and non-structural measures. In order to prove the reliability of the proposed methodology and to show how risk-based information can be incorporated into a flood analysis process, its application to some middle italy river basins is presented. The methodology assessment is performed by comparing different scenarios and showing that the optimal decision stems from a feasibility evaluation.

A definition of high-level decisions in the engineering of systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powell, Robert Anthony

The role of the systems engineer defines that he or she be proactive and guide the program manager and their customers through their decisions to enhance the effectiveness of system development---producing faster, better, and cheaper systems. The present lack of coverage in literature on what these decisions are and how they relate to each other may be a contributing factor to the high rate of failure among system projects. At the onset of the system development process, decisions have an integral role in the design of a system that meets stakeholders' needs. This is apparent during the design and qualification of both the Development System and the Operational System. The performance, cost and schedule of the Development System affect the performance of the Operational System and are affected by decisions that influence physical elements of the Development System. The performance, cost, and schedule of the Operational System is affected by decisions that influence physical elements of the Operational System. Traditionally, product and process have been designed using know-how and trial and error. However, the empiricism of engineers and program managers is limited which can, and has led to costly mistakes. To date, very little research has explored decisions made in the engineering of a system. In government, literature exists on procurement processes for major system development; but in general literature on decisions, how they relate to each other, and the key information requirements within one of two systems and across the two systems is not readily available. This research hopes to improve the processes inherent in the engineering of systems. The primary focus of this research is on department of defense (DoD) military systems, specifically aerospace systems and may generalize more broadly. The result of this research is a process tool, a Decision System Model, which can be used by systems engineers to guide the program manager and their customers through the decisions about concurrently designing and qualifying both the Development and Operational systems.

Genital surgery for disorders of sex development: implementing a shared decision-making approach.

PubMed

Karkazis, Katrina; Tamar-Mattis, Anne; Kon, Alexander A

2010-08-01

Ongoing controversy surrounds early genital surgery for children with disorders of sex development, making decisions about these procedures extraordinarily complex. Professional organizations have encouraged healthcare providers to adopt shared decision-making due to its broad potential to improve the decision-making process, perhaps most so when data are lacking, when there is no clear "best-choice" treatment, when decisions involve more than one choice, where each choice has both advantages and disadvantages, and where the ranking of options depends heavily on the decision-maker's values. We present a 6-step model for shared decision-making in decisions about genital surgery for disorders of sex development: (1) Set the stage and develop an appropriate team; (2) Establish preferences for information and roles in decision-making; (3) Perceive and address emotions; (4) Define concerns and values; (5) Identify options and present evidence; and (6) Share responsibility for making a decision. As long as controversy persists regarding surgery for DSD, an SDM process can facilitate the increased sharing of relevant information essential for making important health care decisions.

Relationship power, decision making, and sexual relations: an exploratory study with couples of Mexican origin.

PubMed

Harvey, S Marie; Beckman, Linda J; Browner, Carole H; Sherman, Christy A

2002-11-01

This study explored how couples of Mexican origin define power in intimate relationships, what makes men and women feel powerful in relationships, and the role of each partner in decision making about sexual and reproductive matters. Interviews were conducted with each partner of 39 sexually active couples and data were analyzed using content analysis. Results indicate that power is perceived as control over one s partner and the ability to make decisions. Women say they feel more powerful in relationships when they make unilateral decisions and have economic independence. Men feel powerful when they have control over their partner and bring home money. Respondents agreed that women make decisions about household matters and children, while men make decisions related to money. Findings indicate that whereas couples share decision making about sexual activities and contraceptive use, men are seen as initiators of sexual activity and women are more likely to suggest condom use.

A Granular Self-Organizing Map for Clustering and Gene Selection in Microarray Data.

PubMed

Ray, Shubhra Sankar; Ganivada, Avatharam; Pal, Sankar K

2016-09-01

A new granular self-organizing map (GSOM) is developed by integrating the concept of a fuzzy rough set with the SOM. While training the GSOM, the weights of a winning neuron and the neighborhood neurons are updated through a modified learning procedure. The neighborhood is newly defined using the fuzzy rough sets. The clusters (granules) evolved by the GSOM are presented to a decision table as its decision classes. Based on the decision table, a method of gene selection is developed. The effectiveness of the GSOM is shown in both clustering samples and developing an unsupervised fuzzy rough feature selection (UFRFS) method for gene selection in microarray data. While the superior results of the GSOM, as compared with the related clustering methods, are provided in terms of β -index, DB-index, Dunn-index, and fuzzy rough entropy, the genes selected by the UFRFS are not only better in terms of classification accuracy and a feature evaluation index, but also statistically more significant than the related unsupervised methods. The C-codes of the GSOM and UFRFS are available online at http://avatharamg.webs.com/software-code.

Social Discounting under Risk.

PubMed

Jin, Jia; Pei, Guanxiong; Ma, Qingguo

2017-01-01

As a measure of how prosocial behavior depends on social distance, social discounting is defined as the decrease in generosity between the decision maker and the recipient as the social distance increases. While risk is a ubiquitous part of modern life, there is limited research on the relationship between risk and prosocial behavior. In the present experiment, we empirically test whether risk has an influence on social discounting. We use the choice titration procedure to examine this effect. Our data show that independent of risk, participants are less eager to forego money and exhibit more selfishness toward a specific person when the social distance increases; these findings are reflected in the hyperbolic model. Interestingly, risk influences the shape of the social discounting function, which is reflected in the notable different discount rates. Individuals who make decisions under risk yield a smaller discount rate than those who make decisions without risk, i.e., under risk subjects reduce less their generosity as a function of the social distance. Furthermore, this distinct type of generosity occurs typically among individuals with 10-distance recipients but not with the closest- and furthest-social-distance recipients.

Adaptive Comanagement of a Marine Protected Area Network in Fiji

PubMed Central

WEEKS, REBECCA; JUPITER, STACY D

2014-01-01

Adaptive management of natural resources is an iterative process of decision making whereby management strategies are progressively changed or adjusted in response to new information. Despite an increasing focus on the need for adaptive conservation strategies, there remain few applied examples. We describe the 9-year process of adaptive comanagement of a marine protected area network in Kubulau District, Fiji. In 2011, a review of protected area boundaries and management rules was motivated by the need to enhance management effectiveness and the desire to improve resilience to climate change. Through a series of consultations, with the Wildlife Conservation Society providing scientific input to community decision making, the network of marine protected areas was reconfigured so as to maximize resilience and compliance. Factors identified as contributing to this outcome include well-defined resource-access rights; community respect for a flexible system of customary governance; long-term commitment and presence of comanagement partners; supportive policy environment for comanagement; synthesis of traditional management approaches with systematic monitoring; and district-wide coordination, which provided a broader spatial context for adaptive-management decision making. PMID:24112643

Routine magnetic resonance imaging for idiopathic olfactory loss: a modeling-based economic evaluation.

PubMed

Rudmik, Luke; Smith, Kristine A; Soler, Zachary M; Schlosser, Rodney J; Smith, Timothy L

2014-10-01

Idiopathic olfactory loss is a common clinical scenario encountered by otolaryngologists. While trying to allocate limited health care resources appropriately, the decision to obtain a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan to investigate for a rare intracranial abnormality can be difficult. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of ordering routine MRI in patients with idiopathic olfactory loss. We performed a modeling-based economic evaluation with a time horizon of less than 1 year. Patients included in the analysis had idiopathic olfactory loss defined by no preceding viral illness or head trauma and negative findings of a physical examination and nasal endoscopy. Routine MRI vs no-imaging strategies. We developed a decision tree economic model from the societal perspective. Effectiveness, probability, and cost data were obtained from the published literature. Litigation rates and costs related to a missed diagnosis were obtained from the Physicians Insurers Association of America. A univariate threshold analysis and multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed to quantify the degree of certainty in the economic conclusion of the reference case. The comparative groups included those who underwent routine MRI of the brain with contrast alone and those who underwent no brain imaging. The primary outcome was the cost per correct diagnosis of idiopathic olfactory loss. The mean (SD) cost for the MRI strategy totaled $2400.00 ($1717.54) and was effective 100% of the time, whereas the mean (SD) cost for the no-imaging strategy totaled $86.61 ($107.40) and was effective 98% of the time. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the MRI strategy compared with the no-imaging strategy was $115 669.50, which is higher than most acceptable willingness-to-pay thresholds. The threshold analysis demonstrated that when the probability of having a treatable intracranial disease process reached 7.9%, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for MRI vs no imaging was $24 654.38. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the no-imaging strategy was the cost-effective decision with 81% certainty at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50 000. This economic evaluation suggests that the most cost-effective decision is to not obtain a routine MRI scan of the brain in patients with idiopathic olfactory loss. Outcomes from this study may be used to counsel patients and aid in the decision-making process.

Evaluating the Effect of Comorbidities on the Success, Risk, and Cost of Digital Replantation.

PubMed

Hustedt, Joshua W; Chung, Andrew; Bohl, Daniel D; Olmscheid, Neil; Edwards, Scott

2016-12-01

The clinical decision to replant an amputated digit is driven primarily by surgical indication. However, the extent to which patient comorbidity should play into this decision is less well defined. This study was designed to determine the effect of patient comorbidities on the success, risk, and cost of digital replantation. All amputation injuries and digital replantation procedures captured by the National Inpatient Sample during 2001 to 2012 were identified. A successful replantation procedure was defined as one in which a replantation occurred without a subsequent revision amputation. Patient comorbidities were tested for association with failure of replantation, risk of postoperative complications, and overall hospital costs. We identified 11,788 digital replantation procedures. A total of 3,604 patients (30.6%) experienced revascularization failure associated with replantation. The risk for replant failure was highest among patients with psychotic disorders, peripheral vascular disease, and electrolyte imbalances. The risk for postoperative complications was highest among patients with electrolyte imbalances, drug abuse, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Hospital costs were greatest among patients with deficiency anemias, electrolyte imbalances, or psychotic disorders. Patients with more than 3 comorbidities experienced significantly higher failure, risk of postoperative complications, and cost of digital replantation. These data suggest that even when surgical indications are met, patients with more than 3 comorbidities and those who have a history of alcohol abuse, deficiency anemias, electrolyte imbalances, obesity, peripheral vascular disease, or psychotic disorders are at increased risk of replantation failure and associated postoperative complications. Assessment of this risk should have a role in decision making regarding whether a digit should be replanted. Patients at high risk should be carefully counseled regarding the difficult perioperative course before undergoing digital replantation. Prognostic III. Copyright © 2016 American Society for Surgery of the Hand. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Do Not Fear Your Opponent: Suboptimal Changes of a Prevention Strategy when Facing Stronger Opponents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Slezak, Diego Fernandez; Sigman, Mariano

2012-01-01

The time spent making a decision and its quality define a widely studied trade-off. Some models suggest that the time spent is set to optimize reward, as verified empirically in simple-decision making experiments. However, in a more complex perspective compromising components of regulation focus, ambitions, fear, risk and social variables,…

Autism Spectrum Disorder: Forensic Issues and Challenges for Mental Health Professionals and Courts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Freckelton, Ian

2013-01-01

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD), as defined in DSM-V, can be relevant in a variety of ways to decision-making by courts and tribunals. This includes the family, disciplinary, discrimination and criminal law contexts. By reviewing decisions made by superior courts in a number of common law jurisdictions, this article identifies a pivotal role for…

Mapping a Research Agenda for Home Care Safety: Perspectives from Researchers, Providers, and Decision Makers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Macdonald, Marilyn; Lang, Ariella; MacDonald, Jo-Anne

2011-01-01

The purpose of this qualitative interpretive design was to explore the perspectives of researchers, health care providers, policy makers, and decision makers on key risks, concerns, and emerging issues related to home care safety that would inform a line of research inquiry. Defining safety specifically in this home care context has yet to be…

Values, Valuing, and Evaluation. Research on Evaluation Program, Paper and Report Series. Interim Draft.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gephart, William J.

The paper discusses the meaning of value and valuing, their roles in evaluation, and the potency of value systems in problem solving logic. Evaluation is defined as a process for facilitating decision making. A decision making situation occurs when there are options which are impossible to treat equivalently, and there is an impact in the…

75 FR 79389 - Notice of Availability of the Record of Decision for the General Management Plan/Environmental...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-20

...: The primary function of a general management plan is to clearly define a park's purpose and management... Record of Decision for the General Management Plan/Environmental Impact Statement for the Roosevelt...: Pursuant to Section 102(2)(C) of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969, as amended [42 U.S.C. 4332...

Assessing the Rigor of HS Curriculum in Admissions Decisions: A Functional Method, Plus Practical Advising for Prospective Students and High School Counselors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Micceri, Theodore; Brigman, Leellen; Spatig, Robert

2009-01-01

An extensive, internally cross-validated analytical study using nested (within academic disciplines) Multilevel Modeling (MLM) on 4,560 students identified functional criteria for defining high school curriculum rigor and further determined which measures could best be used to help guide decision making for marginal applicants. The key outcome…

The Evolving Role of the Courts in Educational Policy: The Tension between Judicial, Scientific, and Democratic Decision Making in "Kitzmiller v. Dover"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Superfine, Benjamin Michael

2009-01-01

In "Kitzmiller v. Dover" (2005), a court defined science to decide the legitimacy of teaching intelligent design to high school biology students. This study analyzes "Kitzmiller" in light of the complex and interrelated tensions between judicial, scientific, and democratic decision making that lie at the heart of modern…

Is It Social Problem Solving or Decision Making? Implications for Health Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frauenknecht, Marianne; Black, David R.

2010-01-01

This paper makes a case that decision making (DM) is not social problem solving (SPS) and DM is subordinate and subsumed within SPS. Both terms are defined and distinguished. Confusion between SPS and DM is widespread and has occurred for at least four decades. DM, not SPS, has been established as one of the seven National Health Education…

Modelling Situation Awareness Information for Naval Decision Support Design

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-10-01

Modelling Situation Awareness Information for Naval Decision Support Design Dr.-Ing. Bernhard Doering, Dipl.-Ing. Gert Doerfel, Dipl.-Ing... knowledge -based user interfaces. For developing such interfaces information of the three different SA levels which operators need in performing their...large scale on situation awareness of operators which is defined as the state of operator knowledge about the external environment resulting from

The Influence of Youth Assets on the Career Decision Self-Efficacy in Unattached Jamaican Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayes, DeMarquis; Huey, Erron L.; Hull, Darrell M.; Saxon, Terrill F.

2012-01-01

The present study expands the career decision self-efficacy (CDSE) literature by focusing on a sample of unattached Jamaican youth to determine if youth assets (protective factors like family communication and peer role models) were predictive of increased CDSE. Unattached youth are defined as those that do not have a job or are not currently…

Charting the expansion of strategic exploratory behavior during adolescence.

PubMed

Somerville, Leah H; Sasse, Stephanie F; Garrad, Megan C; Drysdale, Andrew T; Abi Akar, Nadine; Insel, Catherine; Wilson, Robert C

2017-02-01

Although models of exploratory decision making implicate a suite of strategies that guide the pursuit of information, the developmental emergence of these strategies remains poorly understood. This study takes an interdisciplinary perspective, merging computational decision making and developmental approaches to characterize age-related shifts in exploratory strategy from adolescence to young adulthood. Participants were 149 12-28-year-olds who completed a computational explore-exploit paradigm that manipulated reward value, information value, and decision horizon (i.e., the utility that information holds for future choices). Strategic directed exploration, defined as information seeking selective for long time horizons, emerged during adolescence and maintained its level through early adulthood. This age difference was partially driven by adolescents valuing immediate reward over new information. Strategic random exploration, defined as stochastic choice behavior selective for long time horizons, was invoked at comparable levels over the age range, and predicted individual differences in attitudes toward risk taking in daily life within the adolescent portion of the sample. Collectively, these findings reveal an expansion of the diversity of strategic exploration over development, implicate distinct mechanisms for directed and random exploratory strategies, and suggest novel mechanisms for adolescent-typical shifts in decision making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Definition of drug-resistant epilepsy: is it evidence based?

PubMed

Wiebe, Samuel

2013-05-01

Clinical case definitions are the cornerstone of clinical communication and of clinical and epidemiologic research. The ramifications of establishing a case definition are extensive, including potentially large changes in epidemiologic estimates of frequency, and decisions for clinical management. Yet, defining a condition entails numerous challenges such as defining the scope and purpose, incorporating the strongest evidence base with clinical expertise, accounting for patients' values, and considering impact on care. The clinical case definition of drug-resistant epilepsy, in addition, must address what constitutes an adequate intervention for an individual drug, what are the outcomes of relevance, what period of observation is sufficient to determine success or failure, how many medications should be tried, whether seizure frequency should play a role, and what is the role of side effects and tolerability. On the other hand, the principles of evidence-based medicine (EBM) aim at providing a systematic approach to incorporating the best available evidence into the process of clinical decision for individual patients. The case definition of drug-resistant epilepsy proposed by the the International League Against Epilepsy (ILAE) in 2009 is evaluated in terms of the principles of EBM as well as the stated goals of the authors of the definition. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2013 International League Against Epilepsy.

Fetus dose estimation in thyroid cancer post-surgical radioiodine therapy.

PubMed

Mianji, Fereidoun A; Diba, Jila Karimi; Babakhani, Asad

2015-01-01

Unrecognised pregnancy during radioisotope therapy of thyroid cancer results in hardly definable embryo/fetus exposures, particularly when the thyroid gland is already removed. Sources of such difficulty include uncertainty in data like pregnancy commencing time, amount and distribution of metastasized thyroid cells in body, effect of the thyroidectomy on the fetus dose coefficient etc. Despite all these uncertainties, estimation of the order of the fetus dose in most cases is enough for medical and legal decision-making purposes. A model for adapting the dose coefficients recommended by the well-known methods to the problem of fetus dose assessment in athyrotic patients is proposed. The model defines a correction factor for the problem and ensures that the fetus dose in athyrotic pregnant patients is less than the normal patients. A case of pregnant patient undergone post-surgical therapy by I-131 is then studied for quantitative comparison of the methods. The results draw a range for the fetus dose in athyrotic patients using the derived factor. This reduces the concerns on under- or over-estimation of the embryo/fetus dose and is helpful for personal and/or legal decision-making on abortion. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

An Innovative Approach to Effective Climate Science Application through Stakeholder Participation in Great Plains Grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Athearn, N.; Broska, J.

2015-12-01

For natural resource managers and other Great Plains stakeholders, climate uncertainties further confound decision-making on a highly altered landscape. Partner organizations comprising the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GPLCC) acknowledge climate change as a high-priority threat to grasslands and associated habitats, affecting water availability, species composition, and other factors. Despite its importance, incorporation of climate change impacts into planning is hindered by high uncertainty and lack of translation to a tangible outcome: effects on species and their habitats. In 2014, the GPLCC initiated a Landscape Conservation Design (LCD) process to ultimately improve the size and connectivity of grasslands - informing land managers of the landscape-scale impacts of local decisions about where to restore, enhance, protect, and develop lands. Defining this goal helped stakeholders envision a tangible product. High resolution land cover data recently completed for Texas and Oklahoma represent current grassland locations. By focusing climate change models to project changes in these land cover datasets, resulting land cover projections can be directly incorporated into LCD-based models to focus restoration where future climates will support grasslands. Broad organizational cooperation has been critical for this USGS-led project, which uses downscaled climate data and other support from the South Central Climate Science Center Consortium and builds on existing work including LCD efforts of the Playa Lakes Joint Venture and the Bureau of Land Management's Southern Great Plains Rapid Ecological Assessment. Ongoing stakeholder guidance through an advisory team ensures effective application of a product that will be both relevant to and understood by decision makers, for whom the primary role of research is to reduce uncertainties and clear the path for more efficient decision-making in the face of climatic uncertainty.

Decision-Making Involvement and Prediction of Adherence in Youth With Type 1 Diabetes: A Cohort Sequential Study.

PubMed

Miller, Victoria A; Jawad, Abbas F

2018-05-17

To assess developmental trajectories of decision-making involvement (DMI), defined as the ways in which parents and children engage each other in decision-making about illness management, in youth with type 1 diabetes (T1D) and examine the effects of DMI on levels of and changes in adherence with age. Participants included 117 youth with T1D, enrolled at ages 8-16 years and assessed five times over 2 years. The cohort sequential design allowed for the approximation of the longitudinal curve from age 8 to 19 from overlapping cohort segments. Children and parents completed the Decision-Making Involvement Scale, which yields subscales for different aspects of DMI, and a self-report adherence questionnaire. Mixed-effects growth curve modeling was used for analysis, with longitudinal measures nested within participant and participants nested within cohort. Most aspects of DMI (Parent Express, Parent Seek, Child Express, and Joint) increased with child age; scores on some child report subscales (Parent Express, Child Seek, and Joint) decreased after age 12-14 years. After accounting for age, Child Seek, Child Express, and Joint were associated with overall higher levels of adherence in both child (estimates = 0.08-0.13, p < .001) and parent (estimates = 0.07- 0.13, p < .01) report models, but they did not predict changes in adherence with age. These data suggest that helping children to be more proactive in T1D discussions, by encouraging them to express their opinions, share information, and solicit guidance from parents, is a potential target for interventions to enhance effective self-management.

Measuring (shared) decision-making--a review of psychometric instruments.

PubMed

Simon, Daniela; Loh, Andreas; Härter, Martin

2007-01-01

In recent years shared decision-making (SDM) has gained importance as an appropriate approach to patient-physician communication and decision-making. However, there is a conceptual variety that implies problems of inconsistent measurement, of defining relationships of SDM and outcome measures, and of comparisons across different studies. This article presents the results of a literature search of psychometric instruments measuring aspects of decision-making. Altogether 18 scales were found. The majority covers the patients' perspective and relates to preferences for information and participation, decisional conflict, self-efficacy as well as to the evaluation of decision-making process and outcomes. The scales differ widely in their extent of validation. Although this review is not exhaustive, it presents a variety of available decision-making instruments. Yet, many of them still need to show their psychometric quality for other settings in further studies.

What Makes Hydrologic Models Differ? Using SUMMA to Systematically Explore Model Uncertainty and Error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, A.; Nijssen, B.; Chegwidden, O.; Wood, A.; Clark, M. P.

2017-12-01

Model intercomparison experiments have been conducted to quantify the variability introduced during the model development process, but have had limited success in identifying the sources of this model variability. The Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) has been developed as a framework which defines a general set of conservation equations for mass and energy as well as a common core of numerical solvers along with the ability to set options for choosing between different spatial discretizations and flux parameterizations. SUMMA can be thought of as a framework for implementing meta-models which allows for the investigation of the impacts of decisions made during the model development process. Through this flexibility we develop a hierarchy of definitions which allows for models to be compared to one another. This vocabulary allows us to define the notion of weak equivalence between model instantiations. Through this weak equivalence we develop the concept of model mimicry, which can be used to investigate the introduction of uncertainty and error during the modeling process as well as provide a framework for identifying modeling decisions which may complement or negate one another. We instantiate SUMMA instances that mimic the behaviors of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) by choosing modeling decisions which are implemented in each model. We compare runs from these models and their corresponding mimics across the Columbia River Basin located in the Pacific Northwest of the United States and Canada. From these comparisons, we are able to determine the extent to which model implementation has an effect on the results, as well as determine the changes in sensitivity of parameters due to these implementation differences. By examining these changes in results and sensitivities we can attempt to postulate changes in the modeling decisions which may provide better estimation of state variables.

Artificial Intelligence (AI), Operations Research (OR), and Decision Support Systems (DSS): A conceptual framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parnell, Gregory S.; Rowell, William F.; Valusek, John R.

1987-01-01

In recent years there has been increasing interest in applying the computer based problem solving techniques of Artificial Intelligence (AI), Operations Research (OR), and Decision Support Systems (DSS) to analyze extremely complex problems. A conceptual framework is developed for successfully integrating these three techniques. First, the fields of AI, OR, and DSS are defined and the relationships among the three fields are explored. Next, a comprehensive adaptive design methodology for AI and OR modeling within the context of a DSS is described. These observations are made: (1) the solution of extremely complex knowledge problems with ill-defined, changing requirements can benefit greatly from the use of the adaptive design process, (2) the field of DSS provides the focus on the decision making process essential for tailoring solutions to these complex problems, (3) the characteristics of AI, OR, and DSS tools appears to be converging rapidly, and (4) there is a growing need for an interdisciplinary AI/OR/DSS education.

Moderate social sensitivity in a risky context supports adaptive decision making in adolescence: evidence from brain and behavior.

PubMed

van Hoorn, Jorien; McCormick, Ethan M; Telzer, Eva H

2018-05-01

Adolescence is a time of increased social-affective sensitivity, which is often related to heightened health-risk behaviors. However, moderate levels of social sensitivity, relative to either low (social vacuum) or high levels (exceptionally attuned), may confer benefits as it facilitates effective navigation of the social world. The present fMRI study tested a curvilinear relationship between social sensitivity and adaptive decision-making. Participants (ages 12-16; N = 35) played the Social Analogue Risk Task, which measures participants' willingness to knock on doors in order to earn points. With each knock, the facial expression of the house's resident shifted from happy to somewhat angrier. If the resident became too angry, the door slammed and participants lost points. Social sensitivity was defined as the extent to which adolescents adjusted their risky choices based on shifting facial expressions. Results confirmed a curvilinear relationship between social sensitivity and self-reported adaptive decision-making at the behavioral and neural level. Moderate adolescent social sensitivity was modulated via heightened tracking of social cues in the temporoparietal junction, insula and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and related to adaptive decision-making. These findings suggest that social-affective sensitivity may positively impact outcomes in adolescence and have implications for interventions to help adolescents reach mature social goals into adulthood.

Policy-Led Comparative Environmental Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Crops: Testing for Increased Risk Rather Than Profiling Phenotypes Leads to Predictable and Transparent Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Raybould, Alan; Macdonald, Phil

2018-01-01

We describe two contrasting methods of comparative environmental risk assessment for genetically modified (GM) crops. Both are science-based, in the sense that they use science to help make decisions, but they differ in the relationship between science and policy. Policy-led comparative risk assessment begins by defining what would be regarded as unacceptable changes when the use a particular GM crop replaces an accepted use of another crop. Hypotheses that these changes will not occur are tested using existing or new data, and corroboration or falsification of the hypotheses is used to inform decision-making. Science-led comparative risk assessment, on the other hand, tends to test null hypotheses of no difference between a GM crop and a comparator. The variables that are compared may have little or no relevance to any previously stated policy objective and hence decision-making tends to be ad hoc in response to possibly spurious statistical significance. We argue that policy-led comparative risk assessment is the far more effective method. With this in mind, we caution that phenotypic profiling of GM crops, particularly with omics methods, is potentially detrimental to risk assessment. PMID:29755975

District decision-making for health in low-income settings: a systematic literature review

PubMed Central

Avan, Bilal Iqbal

2016-01-01

Health management information systems (HMIS) produce large amounts of data about health service provision and population health, and provide opportunities for data-based decision-making in decentralized health systems. Yet the data are little-used locally. A well-defined approach to district-level decision-making using health data would help better meet the needs of the local population. In this second of four papers on district decision-making for health in low-income settings, our aim was to explore ways in which district administrators and health managers in low- and lower-middle-income countries use health data to make decisions, to describe the decision-making tools they used and identify challenges encountered when using these tools. A systematic literature review, following PRISMA guidelines, was undertaken. Experts were consulted about key sources of information. A search strategy was developed for 14 online databases of peer reviewed and grey literature. The resources were screened independently by two reviewers using pre-defined inclusion criteria. The 14 papers included were assessed for the quality of reported evidence and a descriptive evidence synthesis of the review findings was undertaken. We found 12 examples of tools to assist district-level decision-making, all of which included two key stages—identification of priorities, and development of an action plan to address them. Of those tools with more steps, four included steps to review or monitor the action plan agreed, suggesting the use of HMIS data. In eight papers HMIS data were used for prioritization. Challenges to decision-making processes fell into three main categories: the availability and quality of health and health facility data; human dynamics and financial constraints. Our findings suggest that evidence is available about a limited range of processes that include the use of data for decision-making at district level. Standardization and pre-testing in diverse settings would increase the potential that these tools could be used more widely. PMID:27591202

The Impact of "Gertz": How the States Have Defined the Standard of Liability for the Private Libel Plaintiff.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stonecipher, Harry W.; Trager, Robert

In the landmark "Gertz" decision, the United States Supreme Court held that, in the interest of protecting libel plaintiffs, the states under certain conditions could define for themselves the appropriate standard of liability for a publisher or broadcaster of defamatory falsehoods. This paper explores several applications of the…

Save More Tomorrow: Using Behavioral Economics to Increase Employee Saving.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thaler, Richard H.; Benartzi, Shlomo

2004-01-01

As firms switch from defined-benefit plans to defined-contribution plans, employees bear more responsibility for making decisions about how much to save. The employees who fail to join the plan or who participate at a very low level appear to be saving at less than the predicted life cycle savings rates. Behavioral explanations for this behavior…

Neuroeconomics: The neurobiology of value-based decision-making

PubMed Central

Rangel, Antonio; Camerer, Colin; Montague, P. Read

2015-01-01

Neuroeconomics studies the neurobiological and computational basis of value-based decision-making. Its goal is to provide a biologically-based account of human behavior that can be applied in both the natural and the social sciences. In this review we propose a framework for thinking about decision-making that allows us to bring together recent findings in the field, highlight some of the most important outstanding problems, define a common lexicon that bridges the different disciplines that inform neuroeconomics, and point the way to future applications. PMID:18545266

Transforming organizational culture through nursing shared governance.

PubMed

Newman, Karen Profitt

2011-03-01

Nursing shared governance (NSG) provides a framework for the professionalization of nursing, provides a broader distribution of decision making across the profession, and allocates decisions based on accountability and role expectations. Shared governance defines staff-based decisions, accountability, roles, and ownership of staff in those activities that directly affect nurses' lives and practice. Although NSG is a somewhat ambiguous concept with a vast application, examining it from the perspective of structure, process, and outcomes can more clearly outline a successful strategy for implementation and growth. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Decision-making and evacuation planning for flood risk management in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Kolen, Bas; Helsloot, Ira

2014-07-01

A traditional view of decision-making for evacuation planning is that, given an uncertain threat, there is a deterministic way of defining the best decision. In other words, there is a linear relation between threat, decision, and execution consequences. Alternatives and the impact of uncertainties are not taken into account. This study considers the 'top strategic decision-making' for mass evacuation owing to flooding in the Netherlands. It reveals that the top strategic decision-making process itself is probabilistic because of the decision-makers involved and their crisis managers (as advisers). The paper concludes that deterministic planning is not sufficient, and it recommends probabilistic planning that considers uncertainties in the decision-making process itself as well as other uncertainties, such as forecasts, citizens responses, and the capacity of infrastructure. This results in less optimistic, but more realistic, strategies and a need to pay attention to alternative strategies. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

A Structured approach to incidental take decision making

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.

2013-01-01

Decision making related to incidental take of endangered species under U.S. law lends itself well to a structured decision making approach. Incidental take is the permitted killing, harming, or harassing of a protected species under the law as long as that harm is incidental to an otherwise lawful activity and does not “reduce appreciably the probability of survival and recovery in the wild.” There has been inconsistency in the process used for determining incidental take allowances across species and across time for the same species, and structured decision making has been proposed to improve decision making. I use an example decision analysis to demonstrate the process and its applicability to incidental take decisions, even under significant demographic uncertainty and multiple, competing objectives. I define the example problem, present an objectives statement and a value function, use a simulation model to assess the consequences of a set of management actions, and evaluate the tradeoffs among the different actions. The approach results in transparent and repeatable decisions.

Decision-Making Competence, Social Orientation, Time Style, and Perceived Stress.

PubMed

Geisler, Martin; Allwood, Carl Martin

2018-01-01

Peoples' decision-making competence, defined as tendency to follow normative rational principles in their decision making, is important as it may influence the extent that requirements are met and levels of perceived stress. In addition, perceived stress could be influenced by social orientation and time style; for example, decisions need to comply with given deadlines and the expectations of others. In two studies, with students ( n = 118) and professionals (police investigators, n = 90), we examined how the three individual difference features: decision-making competence, social orientation, and time approach relate to perceived stress. Results showed that social orientation and time approach were related to levels of perceived stress, but decision-making competence was not. These results indicate that social orientation and time approach are important to consider in relation to perceived stress, but the role of decision-making competence may be less important for perceived stress. However, the role of decision-making competence for perceived stress needs to be further researched.

Decision-Making Competence, Social Orientation, Time Style, and Perceived Stress

PubMed Central

Geisler, Martin; Allwood, Carl Martin

2018-01-01

Peoples’ decision-making competence, defined as tendency to follow normative rational principles in their decision making, is important as it may influence the extent that requirements are met and levels of perceived stress. In addition, perceived stress could be influenced by social orientation and time style; for example, decisions need to comply with given deadlines and the expectations of others. In two studies, with students (n = 118) and professionals (police investigators, n = 90), we examined how the three individual difference features: decision-making competence, social orientation, and time approach relate to perceived stress. Results showed that social orientation and time approach were related to levels of perceived stress, but decision-making competence was not. These results indicate that social orientation and time approach are important to consider in relation to perceived stress, but the role of decision-making competence may be less important for perceived stress. However, the role of decision-making competence for perceived stress needs to be further researched. PMID:29686634

A qualitative analysis of how advanced practice nurses use clinical decision support systems.

PubMed

Weber, Scott

2007-12-01

The purpose of this study was to generate a grounded theory that will reflect the experiences of advanced practice nurses (APNs) working as critical care nurse practitioners (NPs) and clinical nurse specialists (CNS) with computer-based decision-making systems. A study design using grounded theory qualitative research methods and convenience sampling was employed in this study. Twenty-three APNs (13 CNS and 10 NPs) were recruited from 16 critical care units located in six large urban medical centers in the U.S. Midwest. Single-structured in-depth interviews with open-ended audio-taped questions were conducted with each APN. Through this process, APNs defined what they consider to be relevant themes and patterns of clinical decision system use in their critical care practices, and they identified the interrelatedness of the conceptual categories that emerged from the results. Data were analyzed using the constant comparative analysis method of qualitative research. APN participants were predominantly female, white/non-Hispanic, had a history of access to the clinical decision system used in their critical care settings for an average of 14 months, and had attended a formal training program to learn how to use clinical decision systems. "Forecasting decision outcomes," which was defined as the voluntary process employed to forecast the outcomes of patient care decisions in critical care prior to actual decision making, was the core variable describing system use that emerged from the responses. This variable consisted of four user constructs or components: (a) users' perceptions of their initial system learning experience, (b) users' sense of how well they understand how system technology works, (c) users' understanding of how system inferences are created or derived, and (d) users' relative trust of system-derived data. Each of these categories was further described through the grounded theory research process, and the relationships between the categories were identified. The findings of this study suggest that the main reason critical care APNs choose to integrate clinical decision systems into their practices is to provide an objective, scientifically derived, technology-based backup for human forecasting of the outcomes of patient care decisions prior to their actual decision making. Implications for nursing, health care, and technology research are presented.

Mission roles for the Solar Electric Propulsion Stage (SEPS) with the space transportation system. Volume 1: Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hammock, D. M.

1975-01-01

A study was conducted to determine the characteristics of solar electric propulsion stage (SEPS) for the space transportation system. Emphasis is placed on the rationale leading to the concepts for the development and operations program which enhances the cost effectiveness of the SEPS operating with the space transportation system. The approach in describing design concepts and configurations is concerned with the decision controlling factors and selection criteria. The mission roles for the SEPS in accomplishing proposed space activities are defined.

HTA – Algorithm or Process?

PubMed Central

Culyer, Anthony J.

2016-01-01

Daniels, Porteny and Urrutia et al make a good case for the idea that that public decisions ought to be made not only "in the light of" evidence but also "on the basis of" budget impact, financial protection and equity. Health technology assessment (HTA) should, they say, be accordingly expanded to consider matters additional to safety and cost-effectiveness. They also complain that most HTA reports fail to develop ethical arguments and generally do not even mention ethical issues. This comment argues that some of these defects are more apparent than real and are not inherent in HTA – as distinct from being common characteristics found in poorly conducted HTAs. More generally, HTA does not need "extension" since (1) ethical issues are already embedded in HTA processes, not least in their scoping phases, and (2) HTA processes are already sufficiently flexible to accommodate evidence about a wide range of factors, and will not need fundamental change in order to accommodate the new forms of decision-relevant evidence about distributional impact and financial protection that are now starting to emerge. HTA and related techniques are there to support decision-makers who have authority to make decisions. Analysts like us are there to support and advise them (and not to assume the responsibilities for which they, and not we, are accountable). The required quality in HTA then becomes its effectiveness as a means of addressing the issues of concern to decision-makers. What is also required is adherence by competent analysts to a standard template of good analytical practice. The competencies include not merely those of the usual disciplines (particularly biostatistics, cognitive psychology, health economics, epidemiology, and ethics) but also the imaginative and interpersonal skills for exploring the "real" question behind the decision-maker’s brief (actual or postulated) and eliciting the social values that necessarily pervade the entire analysis. The product of such exploration defines the authoritative scope of an HTA. PMID:27694664

A contrast between DEMATEL-ANP and ANP methods for six sigma project selection: a case study in healthcare industry.

PubMed

Ortíz, Miguel A; Felizzola, Heriberto A; Nieto Isaza, Santiago

2015-01-01

The project selection process is a crucial step for healthcare organizations at the moment of implementing six sigma programs in both administrative and caring processes. However, six-sigma project selection is often defined as a decision making process with interaction and feedback between criteria; so that it is necessary to explore different methods to help healthcare companies to determine the Six-sigma projects that provide the maximum benefits. This paper describes the application of both ANP (Analytic Network process) and DEMATEL (Decision Making trial and evaluation laboratory)-ANP in a public medical centre to establish the most suitable six sigma project and finally, these methods were compared to evaluate their performance in the decision making process. ANP and DEMATEL-ANP were used to evaluate 6 six sigma project alternatives under an evaluation model composed by 3 strategies, 4 criteria and 15 sub-criteria. Judgement matrixes were completed by the six sigma team whose participants worked in different departments of the medical centre. The improving of care opportunity in obstetric outpatients was elected as the most suitable six sigma project with a score of 0,117 as contribution to the organization goals. DEMATEL-ANP performed better at decision making process since it reduced the error probability due to interactions and feedback. ANP and DEMATEL-ANP effectively supported six sigma project selection processes, helping to create a complete framework that guarantees the prioritization of projects that provide maximum benefits to healthcare organizations. As DEMATEL- ANP performed better, it should be used by practitioners involved in decisions related to the implementation of six sigma programs in healthcare sector accompanied by the adequate identification of the evaluation criteria that support the decision making model. Thus, this comparative study contributes to choosing more effective approaches in this field. Suggestions of further work are also proposed so that these methods can be applied more adequate in six sigma project selection processes in healthcare.

A contrast between DEMATEL-ANP and ANP methods for six sigma project selection: a case study in healthcare industry

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Background The project selection process is a crucial step for healthcare organizations at the moment of implementing six sigma programs in both administrative and caring processes. However, six-sigma project selection is often defined as a decision making process with interaction and feedback between criteria; so that it is necessary to explore different methods to help healthcare companies to determine the Six-sigma projects that provide the maximum benefits. This paper describes the application of both ANP (Analytic Network process) and DEMATEL (Decision Making trial and evaluation laboratory)-ANP in a public medical centre to establish the most suitable six sigma project and finally, these methods were compared to evaluate their performance in the decision making process. Methods ANP and DEMATEL-ANP were used to evaluate 6 six sigma project alternatives under an evaluation model composed by 3 strategies, 4 criteria and 15 sub-criteria. Judgement matrixes were completed by the six sigma team whose participants worked in different departments of the medical centre. Results The improving of care opportunity in obstetric outpatients was elected as the most suitable six sigma project with a score of 0,117 as contribution to the organization goals. DEMATEL-ANP performed better at decision making process since it reduced the error probability due to interactions and feedback. Conclusions ANP and DEMATEL-ANP effectively supported six sigma project selection processes, helping to create a complete framework that guarantees the prioritization of projects that provide maximum benefits to healthcare organizations. As DEMATEL- ANP performed better, it should be used by practitioners involved in decisions related to the implementation of six sigma programs in healthcare sector accompanied by the adequate identification of the evaluation criteria that support the decision making model. Thus, this comparative study contributes to choosing more effective approaches in this field. Suggestions of further work are also proposed so that these methods can be applied more adequate in six sigma project selection processes in healthcare. PMID:26391445

Cognitive Fatigue Destabilizes Economic Decision Making Preferences and Strategies.

PubMed

Mullette-Gillman, O'Dhaniel A; Leong, Ruth L F; Kurnianingsih, Yoanna A

2015-01-01

It is common for individuals to engage in taxing cognitive activity for prolonged periods of time, resulting in cognitive fatigue that has the potential to produce significant effects in behaviour and decision making. We sought to examine whether cognitive fatigue modulates economic decision making. We employed a between-subject manipulation design, inducing fatigue through 60 to 90 minutes of taxing cognitive engagement against a control group that watched relaxing videos for a matched period of time. Both before and after the manipulation, participants engaged in two economic decision making tasks (one for gains and one for losses). The analyses focused on two areas of economic decision making--preferences and choice strategies. Uncertainty preferences (risk and ambiguity) were quantified as premium values, defined as the degree and direction in which participants alter the valuation of the gamble in comparison to the certain option. The strategies that each participant engaged in were quantified through a choice strategy metric, which contrasts the degree to which choice behaviour relies upon available satisficing or maximizing information. We separately examined these metrics for alterations within both the gains and losses domains, through the two choice tasks. The fatigue manipulation resulted in significantly greater levels of reported subjective fatigue, with correspondingly higher levels of reported effort during the cognitively taxing activity. Cognitive fatigue did not alter uncertainty preferences (risk or ambiguity) or informational strategies, in either the gains or losses domains. Rather, cognitive fatigue resulted in greater test-retest variability across most of our economic measures. These results indicate that cognitive fatigue destabilizes economic decision making, resulting in inconsistent preferences and informational strategies that may significantly reduce decision quality.

Cognitive Fatigue Destabilizes Economic Decision Making Preferences and Strategies

PubMed Central

Mullette-Gillman, O’Dhaniel A.; Leong, Ruth L. F.; Kurnianingsih, Yoanna A.

2015-01-01

Objective It is common for individuals to engage in taxing cognitive activity for prolonged periods of time, resulting in cognitive fatigue that has the potential to produce significant effects in behaviour and decision making. We sought to examine whether cognitive fatigue modulates economic decision making. Methods We employed a between-subject manipulation design, inducing fatigue through 60 to 90 minutes of taxing cognitive engagement against a control group that watched relaxing videos for a matched period of time. Both before and after the manipulation, participants engaged in two economic decision making tasks (one for gains and one for losses). The analyses focused on two areas of economic decision making—preferences and choice strategies. Uncertainty preferences (risk and ambiguity) were quantified as premium values, defined as the degree and direction in which participants alter the valuation of the gamble in comparison to the certain option. The strategies that each participant engaged in were quantified through a choice strategy metric, which contrasts the degree to which choice behaviour relies upon available satisficing or maximizing information. We separately examined these metrics for alterations within both the gains and losses domains, through the two choice tasks. Results The fatigue manipulation resulted in significantly greater levels of reported subjective fatigue, with correspondingly higher levels of reported effort during the cognitively taxing activity. Cognitive fatigue did not alter uncertainty preferences (risk or ambiguity) or informational strategies, in either the gains or losses domains. Rather, cognitive fatigue resulted in greater test-retest variability across most of our economic measures. These results indicate that cognitive fatigue destabilizes economic decision making, resulting in inconsistent preferences and informational strategies that may significantly reduce decision quality. PMID:26230404

Utility of Decision Rules for Transcutaneous Bilirubin Measurements

PubMed Central

Burgos, Anthony E.; Flaherman, Valerie; Chung, Esther K.; Simpson, Elizabeth A.; Goyal, Neera K.; Von Kohorn, Isabelle; Dhepyasuwan, Niramol

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Transcutaneous bilirubin (TcB) meters are widely used for screening newborns for jaundice, with a total serum bilirubin (TSB) measurement indicated when the TcB value is classified as “positive” by using a decision rule. The goal of our study was to assess the clinical utility of 3 recommended TcB screening decision rules. METHODS: Paired TcB/TSB measurements were collected at 34 newborn nursery sites. At 27 sites (sample 1), newborns were routinely screened with a TcB measurement. For sample 2, sites that typically screen with TSB levels also obtained a TcB measurement for the study. Three decision rules to define a positive TcB measurement were evaluated: ≥75th percentile on the Bhutani nomogram, 70% of the phototherapy level, and within 3 mg/dL of the phototherapy threshold. The primary outcome was a TSB level at/above the phototherapy threshold. The rate of false-negative TcB screens and percentage of blood draws avoided were calculated for each decision rule. RESULTS: For sample 1, data were analyzed on 911 paired TcB-TSB measurements from a total of 8316 TcB measurements. False-negative rates were <10% with all decision rules; none identified all 31 newborns with a TSB level at/above the phototherapy threshold. The percentage of blood draws avoided ranged from 79.4% to 90.7%. In sample 2, each rule correctly identified all 8 newborns with TSB levels at/above the phototherapy threshold. CONCLUSIONS: Although all of the decision rules can be used effectively to screen newborns for jaundice, each will “miss” some infants with a TSB level at/above the phototherapy threshold. PMID:27244792

“Trying to Be a Good Parent” As Defined By Interviews With Parents Who Made Phase I, Terminal Care, and Resuscitation Decisions for Their Children

PubMed Central

Hinds, Pamela S.; Oakes, Linda L.; Hicks, Judy; Powell, Brent; Srivastava, Deo Kumar; Spunt, Sheri L.; Harper, JoAnn; Baker, Justin N.; West, Nancy K.; Furman, Wayne L.

2009-01-01

Purpose When a child's cancer progresses beyond current treatment capability, the parents are likely to participate in noncurative treatment decision making. One factor that helps parents to make these decisions and remain satisfied with them afterward is deciding as they believe a good parent would decide. Because being a good parent to a child with incurable cancer has not been formally defined, we conducted a descriptive study to develop such a definition. Methods In face-to-face interviews, 62 parents who had made one of three decisions (enrollment on a phase I study, do not resuscitate status, or terminal care) for 58 patients responded to two open-ended questions about the definition of a good parent and about how clinicians could help them fulfill this role. For semantic content analysis of the interviews, a rater panel trained in this method independently coded all responses. Inter-rater reliability was excellent. Results Among the aspects of the definition qualitatively identified were making informed, unselfish decisions in the child's best interest, remaining at the child's side, showing the child that he is cherished, teaching the child to make good decisions, advocating for the child with the staff, and promoting the child's health. We also identified 15 clinician strategies that help parents be a part of making these decisions on behalf of a child with advanced cancer. Conclusion The definition and the strategies may be used to guide clinicians in helping parents fulfill the good parent role and take comfort afterward in having acted as a good parent. PMID:19805693

The case against one-shot testing for initial dental licensure.

PubMed

Chambers, David W; Dugoni, Arthur A; Paisley, Ian

2004-03-01

High-stakes testing are expected to meet standards for cost-effectiveness, fairness, transparency, high reliability, and high validity. It is questionable whether initial licensure examinations in dentistry meet such standards. Decades of piecemeal adjustments in the system have resulted in limited improvement. The essential flaw in the system is reliance on a one-shot sample of a small segment of the skills, understanding, and supporting values needed for today's professional practice of dentistry. The "snapshot" approach to testing produces inherently substandard levels of reliability and validity. A three-step alternative is proposed: boards should (1) define the competencies required of beginning practitioners, (2) establish the psychometric standards needed to make defensible judgments about candidates, and (3) base licensure decisions only on portfolios of evidence that test for defined competencies at established levels of quality.

Comparing perceptual and preferential decision making.

PubMed

Dutilh, Gilles; Rieskamp, Jörg

2016-06-01

Perceptual and preferential decision making have been studied largely in isolation. Perceptual decisions are considered to be at a non-deliberative cognitive level and have an outside criterion that defines the quality of decisions. Preferential decisions are considered to be at a higher cognitive level and the quality of decisions depend on the decision maker's subjective goals. Besides these crucial differences, both types of decisions also have in common that uncertain information about the choice situation has to be processed before a decision can be made. The present work aims to acknowledge the commonalities of both types of decision making to lay bare the crucial differences. For this aim we examine perceptual and preferential decisions with a novel choice paradigm that uses the identical stimulus material for both types of decisions. This paradigm allows us to model the decisions and response times of both types of decisions with the same sequential sampling model, the drift diffusion model. The results illustrate that the different incentive structure in both types of tasks changes people's behavior so that they process information more efficiently and respond more cautiously in the perceptual as compared to the preferential task. These findings set out a perspective for further integration of perceptual and preferential decision making in a single ramework.

Parameter Validation for Evaluation of Spaceflight Hardware Reusability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Childress-Thompson, Rhonda; Dale, Thomas L.; Farrington, Phillip

2017-01-01

Within recent years, there has been an influx of companies around the world pursuing reusable systems for space flight. Much like NASA, many of these new entrants are learning that reusable systems are complex and difficult to acheive. For instance, in its first attempts to retrieve spaceflight hardware for future reuse, SpaceX unsuccessfully tried to land on a barge at sea, resulting in a crash-landing. As this new generation of launch developers continues to develop concepts for reusable systems, having a systematic approach for determining the most effective systems for reuse is paramount. Three factors that influence the effective implementation of reusability are cost, operability and reliability. Therefore, a method that integrates these factors into the decision-making process must be utilized to adequately determine whether hardware used in space flight should be reused or discarded. Previous research has identified seven features that contribute to the successful implementation of reusability for space flight applications, defined reusability for space flight applications, highlighted the importance of reusability, and presented areas that hinder successful implementation of reusability. The next step is to ensure that the list of reusability parameters previously identified is comprehensive, and any duplication is either removed or consolidated. The characteristics to judge the seven features as good indicators for successful reuse are identified and then assessed using multiattribute decision making. Next, discriminators in the form of metrics or descriptors are assigned to each parameter. This paper explains the approach used to evaluate these parameters, define the Measures of Effectiveness (MOE) for reusability, and quantify these parameters. Using the MOEs, each parameter is assessed for its contribution to the reusability of the hardware. Potential data sources needed to validate the approach will be identified.

Pre-defined and optional staging for the deployment of enterprise systems: a case study and a framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lichtenstein, Yossi; Cucuy, Shy; Fink, Lior

2017-03-01

The effective deployment of enterprise systems has been a major challenge for many organisations. Customising the new system, changing business processes, and integrating multiple information sources are all difficult tasks. As such, they are typically done in carefully planned stages in a process known as phased implementation. Using ideas from Option Theory, this article critiques aspects of phased implementation. One customer relationship management (CRM) project and its phased implementation are described in detail and ten other enterprise system deployments are summarised as a basis for the observation that almost all deployment stages are pre-defined operational steps rather than decision points. However, Option Theory suggests that optional stages, to be used only when risk materialises, should be integral parts of project plans. Although such optional stages are often more valuable than pre-defined stages, the evidence presented in this article shows that they are only rarely utilised. Therefore, a simple framework is presented; it first identifies risks related to the deployment of enterprise systems, then identifies optional stages that can mitigate these risks, and finally compares the costs and benefits of both pre-defined and optional stages.

Applying of Decision Tree Analysis to Risk Factors Associated with Pressure Ulcers in Long-Term Care Facilities.

PubMed

Moon, Mikyung; Lee, Soo-Kyoung

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to use decision tree analysis to explore the factors associated with pressure ulcers (PUs) among elderly people admitted to Korean long-term care facilities. The data were extracted from the 2014 National Inpatient Sample (NIS)-data of Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service (HIRA). A MapReduce-based program was implemented to join and filter 5 tables of the NIS. The outcome predicted by the decision tree model was the prevalence of PUs as defined by the Korean Standard Classification of Disease-7 (KCD-7; code L89 * ). Using R 3.3.1, a decision tree was generated with the finalized 15,856 cases and 830 variables. The decision tree displayed 15 subgroups with 8 variables showing 0.804 accuracy, 0.820 sensitivity, and 0.787 specificity. The most significant primary predictor of PUs was length of stay less than 0.5 day. Other predictors were the presence of an infectious wound dressing, followed by having diagnoses numbering less than 3.5 and the presence of a simple dressing. Among diagnoses, "injuries to the hip and thigh" was the top predictor ranking 5th overall. Total hospital cost exceeding 2,200,000 Korean won (US $2,000) rounded out the top 7. These results support previous studies that showed length of stay, comorbidity, and total hospital cost were associated with PUs. Moreover, wound dressings were commonly used to treat PUs. They also show that machine learning, such as a decision tree, could effectively predict PUs using big data.

Identifying Cost-Effective Dynamic Policies to Control Epidemics

PubMed Central

Yaesoubi, Reza; Cohen, Ted

2016-01-01

We describe a mathematical decision model for identifying dynamic health policies for controlling epidemics. These dynamic policies aim to select the best current intervention based on accumulating epidemic data and the availability of resources at each decision point. We propose an algorithm to approximate dynamic policies that optimize the population’s net health benefit, a performance measure which accounts for both health and monetary outcomes. We further illustrate how dynamic policies can be defined and optimized for the control of a novel viral pathogen, where a policy maker must decide (i) when to employ or lift a transmission-reducing intervention (e.g. school closure) and (ii) how to prioritize population members for vaccination when a limited quantity of vaccines first become available. Within the context of this application, we demonstrate that dynamic policies can produce higher net health benefit than more commonly described static policies that specify a pre-determined sequence of interventions to employ throughout epidemics. PMID:27449759

Active euthanasia and assisted suicide: a perspective from an American abortion and Dutch euthanasia scenario.

PubMed

Musgrave, C F

1998-10-01

To discuss the critical issues involved in the legalization of active euthanasia and physician-assisted suicide. Nursing, medical, legal, and ethics literature; newspaper articles; book chapters. The major terms employed in the discussion of active euthanasia and physician-assisted suicide are defined. The implications of the recent Supreme Court decision on these practices are outlined. The Dutch euthanasia and the American abortion scenarios are used as models for the interpretation of the effects of future legislation on such practices. Oncology nurses need to be cognizant of the crucial issues involved in the practices of active euthanasia and physician-assisted suicide and determine their philosophical stance regarding the practices. If active euthanasia and physician-assisted suicide practices are legalized, oncology nurses will have to make decisions about their desired degree of involvement in acts that will end their patients' lives.

Transmission Planning Analysis Tool

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

2015-06-23

Developed to solve specific problem: Assist transmission planning for regional transfers in interconnected power systems. This work was originated in a study for the U.S. Department of State, to recommend transmission reinforcements for the Central American regional system that interconnects 6 countries. Transmission planning analysis is currently performed by engineers with domainspecific and systemspecific knowledge without a unique methodology. The software codes of this disclosure assists engineers by defining systematic analysis procedures to help identify weak points and make decisions on transmission planning of regional interconnected power systems. Transmission Planning Analysis Tool groups PSS/E results of multiple AC contingency analysismore » and voltage stability analysis and QV analysis of many scenarios of study and arrange them in a systematic way to aid power system planning engineers or transmission operators in effective decision]making process or in the off]line study environment.« less

'Innovation' in health care coverage decisions: all talk and no substance?

PubMed

Bryan, Stirling; Lee, Helen; Mitton, Craig

2013-01-01

There has been much discussion recently about 'innovation', or more precisely the lack of it, in pharmaceuticals and devices in health care. The concern has been expressed by national guideline bodies, such as the Common Drugs Review in Canada and the National Institute for Health & Clinical Excellence in the UK, applying strict cost-effectiveness criteria in their decision-making and, therefore, failing adequately to recognize the full benefits that come from innovation. In order to explore the legitimacy of such claims, we first define innovation, and second, explore the basis for assuming an independent and separable social value associated with innovation. We conclude that demands relating to innovation, such as relaxation of thresholds and premium prices for innovatory products, remain hollow until we have a compelling case on the demand side for a separable social value on 'innovation'. We see no such case currently.

A "simulation chain" to define a Multidisciplinary Decision Support System for landslide risk management in pyroclastic soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damiano, E.; Mercogliano, P.; Netti, N.; Olivares, L.

2012-04-01

This paper proposes a Multidisciplinary Decision Support System (MDSS) as an approach to manage rainfall-induced shallow landslides of the flow type (flowslides) in pyroclastic deposits. We stress the need to combine information from the fields of meteorology, geology, hydrology, geotechnics and economics to support the agencies engaged in land monitoring and management. The MDSS consists of a "simulation chain" to link rainfall to effects in terms of infiltration, slope stability and vulnerability. This "simulation chain" was developed at the Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change (CMCC) (meteorological aspects), at the Geotechnical Laboratory of the Second University of Naples (hydrological and geotechnical aspects) and at the Department of Economics of the University of Naples "Federico II" (economic aspects). The results obtained from the application of this simulation chain in the Cervinara area during eleven years of research allowed in-depth analysis of the mechanisms underlying a flowslide in pyroclastic soil.

Syncope: risk stratification and clinical decision making.

PubMed

Peeters, Suzanne Y G; Hoek, Amber E; Mollink, Susan M; Huff, J Stephen

2014-04-01

Syncope is a common occurrence in the emergency department, accounting for approximately 1% to 3% of presentations. Syncope is best defined as a brief loss of consciousness and postural tone followed by spontaneous and complete recovery. The spectrum of etiologies ranges from benign to life threatening, and a structured approach to evaluating these patients is key to providing care that is thorough, yet cost-effective. This issue reviews the most relevant evidence for managing and risk stratifying the syncope patient, beginning with a focused history, physical examination, electrocardiogram, and tailored diagnostic testing. Several risk stratification decision rules are compared for performance in various scenarios, including how age and associated comorbidities may predict short-term and long-term adverse events. An algorithm for structured, evidence-based care of the syncope patient is included to ensure that patients requiring hospitalization are managed appropriately and those with benign causes are discharged safely.

Defining the road ahead: thinking strategically in the new era of health care reform.

PubMed

Pudlowski, Edward M

2011-01-01

Understanding the implications of the new health care reform legislation, including those provisions that do not take effect for several years, will be critical in developing a successful strategic plan under the new environment of health care reform and avoiding unintended consequences of decisions made without the benefit of long-term thinking. Although this article is not a comprehensive assessment of the challenges and opportunities that exist under health care reform, nor a layout of all of the issues, it looks at some of the key areas in order to demonstrate why employers need to identify critical pathways and the associated risks and benefits of each decision. Key health care reform areas include insurance market reforms, grandfather rules, provisions that have the potential to influence the underlying cost of health care, the individual mandate, the employer mandate (including the free-choice voucher program) and the excise tax on high-cost plans.

Emergency medical service provider decision-making in out of hospital cardiac arrest: an exploratory study.

PubMed

Brandling, J; Kirby, K; Black, S; Voss, S; Benger, J

2017-07-25

There are approximately 60,000 out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCA) in the United Kingdom (UK) each year. Within the UK there are well-established clinical practice guidelines that define when resuscitation should be commenced in OHCA, and when resuscitation should cease. Background literature indicates that decision-making in the commencement and cessation of resuscitation efforts in OHCA is complex, and not comprehensively understood. No relevant research from the UK has been published to date and this research study seeks to explore the influences on UK Emergency Medical Service (EMS) provider decision-making when commencing and ceasing resuscitation attempts in OHCA. The aim of this research to explore the influences on UK Emergency Medical Services provider decision-making when commencing and ceasing resuscitation attempts in OHCA. Four focus groups were convened with 16 clinically active EMS providers. Four case vignettes were discussed to explore decision-making within the focus groups. Thematic analysis was used to analyse transcripts. This research found that there are three stages in the decision-making process when EMS providers consider whether to commence or cease resuscitation attempts in OHCA. These stages are: the call; arrival on scene; the protocol. Influential factors present at each of the three stages can lead to different decisions and variability in practice. These influences are: factual information available to the EMS provider; structural factors such as protocol, guidance and research; cultural beliefs and values; interpersonal factors; risk factors; personal values and beliefs. An improved understanding of the circumstantial, individual and interpersonal factors that mediate the decision-making process in clinical practice could inform the development of more effective clinical guidelines, education and clinical decision support in OHCA. These changes have the potential to lead to greater consistency. and EMS provider confidence, with the potential for improved patient outcome from OHCA.

When is rational to order a diagnostic test, or prescribe treatment: the threshold model as an explanation of practice variation.

PubMed

Djulbegovic, Benjamin; van den Ende, Jef; Hamm, Robert M; Mayrhofer, Thomas; Hozo, Iztok; Pauker, Stephen G

2015-05-01

The threshold model represents an important advance in the field of medical decision-making. It is a linchpin between evidence (which exists on the continuum of credibility) and decision-making (which is a categorical exercise - we decide to act or not act). The threshold concept is closely related to the question of rational decision-making. When should the physician act, that is order a diagnostic test, or prescribe treatment? The threshold model embodies the decision theoretic rationality that says the most rational decision is to prescribe treatment when the expected treatment benefit outweighs its expected harms. However, the well-documented large variation in the way physicians order diagnostic tests or decide to administer treatments is consistent with a notion that physicians' individual action thresholds vary. We present a narrative review summarizing the existing literature on physicians' use of a threshold strategy for decision-making. We found that the observed variation in decision action thresholds is partially due to the way people integrate benefits and harms. That is, explanation of variation in clinical practice can be reduced to a consideration of thresholds. Limited evidence suggests that non-expected utility threshold (non-EUT) models, such as regret-based and dual-processing models, may explain current medical practice better. However, inclusion of costs and recognition of risk attitudes towards uncertain treatment effects and comorbidities may improve the explanatory and predictive value of the EUT-based threshold models. The decision when to act is closely related to the question of rational choice. We conclude that the medical community has not yet fully defined criteria for rational clinical decision-making. The traditional notion of rationality rooted in EUT may need to be supplemented by reflective rationality, which strives to integrate all aspects of medical practice - medical, humanistic and socio-economic - within a coherent reasoning system. © 2015 Stichting European Society for Clinical Investigation Journal Foundation.

Reconstructing the Prostate Cancer Transcriptional Regulatory Network

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-07-01

the Medical Scientist Training Program. The funders had no role in study design , data collection and analysis , decision to publish, or preparation of...reverse analysis , building a cell line subtype classifier to classify 86 breast tumors (from the original Stanford/Norway study defining the five tumor...Army position, policy or decision unless so designated by other documentation. REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public

42 CFR 83.17 - How will the Secretary report a final decision to add a class of employees to the Cohort and any...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... Secretary report a final decision to add a class of employees to the Cohort and any action of Congress... to the Cohort, the Secretary will transmit to Congress a report providing the designation, the... as defined by the Board, then the Secretary will transmit to Congress the report specified in...

42 CFR 83.17 - How will the Secretary report a final decision to add a class of employees to the Cohort and any...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... Secretary report a final decision to add a class of employees to the Cohort and any action of Congress... to the Cohort, the Secretary will transmit to Congress a report providing the designation, the... as defined by the Board, then the Secretary will transmit to Congress the report specified in...

42 CFR 83.17 - How will the Secretary report a final decision to add a class of employees to the Cohort and any...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... Secretary report a final decision to add a class of employees to the Cohort and any action of Congress... to the Cohort, the Secretary will transmit to Congress a report providing the designation, the... as defined by the Board, then the Secretary will transmit to Congress the report specified in...

42 CFR 83.17 - How will the Secretary report a final decision to add a class of employees to the Cohort and any...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... Secretary report a final decision to add a class of employees to the Cohort and any action of Congress... to the Cohort, the Secretary will transmit to Congress a report providing the designation, the... as defined by the Board, then the Secretary will transmit to Congress the report specified in...

42 CFR 83.17 - How will the Secretary report a final decision to add a class of employees to the Cohort and any...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... Secretary report a final decision to add a class of employees to the Cohort and any action of Congress... to the Cohort, the Secretary will transmit to Congress a report providing the designation, the... as defined by the Board, then the Secretary will transmit to Congress the report specified in...

The development of a decision support system for prioritizing forested wetland restoration areeas in the lower Yazoo River Basin, Mississippi

Treesearch

Anegla A. Davis; Barbara A. Kleiss; Charles G. O' Hara; Jennifer S. Derby

2000-01-01

The Eco-Assessor, a GIS-based decision-support system, has been developed for the lower part of the Yazoo River Basin, Mississippi, to help planners and managers determine the best locations for the restoration of wetlands based on defined ecological and geographic criteria and probability of success. To assess the functional characteristics of the potential...

A randomized clinical trial of the effectiveness of mechanical traction for sub-groups of patients with low back pain: study methods and rationale

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Patients with signs of nerve root irritation represent a sub-group of those with low back pain who are at increased risk of persistent symptoms and progression to costly and invasive management strategies including surgery. A period of non-surgical management is recommended for most patients, but there is little evidence to guide non-surgical decision-making. We conducted a preliminary study examining the effectiveness of a treatment protocol of mechanical traction with extension-oriented activities for patients with low back pain and signs of nerve root irritation. The results suggested this approach may be effective, particularly in a more specific sub-group of patients. The aim of this study will be to examine the effectiveness of treatment that includes traction for patients with low back pain and signs of nerve root irritation, and within the pre-defined sub-group. Methods/Design The study will recruit 120 patients with low back pain and signs of nerve root irritation. Patients will be randomized to receive an extension-oriented treatment approach, with or without the addition of mechanical traction. Randomization will be stratified based on the presence of the pre-defined sub-grouping criteria. All patients will receive 12 physical therapy treatment sessions over 6 weeks. Follow-up assessments will occur after 6 weeks, 6 months, and 1 year. The primary outcome will be disability measured with a modified Oswestry questionnaire. Secondary outcomes will include self-reports of low back and leg pain intensity, quality of life, global rating of improvement, additional healthcare utilization, and work absence. Statistical analysis will be based on intention to treat principles and will use linear mixed model analysis to compare treatment groups, and examine the interaction between treatment and sub-grouping status. Discussion This trial will provide a methodologically rigorous evaluation of the effectiveness of using traction for patients with low back pain and signs of nerve root irritation, and will examine the validity of a pre-defined sub-grouping hypothesis. The results will provide evidence to inform non-surgical decision-making for these patients. Trial Registration This trial has been registered with http://ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00942227 PMID:20433733

Comparative dynamic analysis of the full Grossman model.

PubMed

Ried, W

1998-08-01

The paper applies the method of comparative dynamic analysis to the full Grossman model. For a particular class of solutions, it derives the equations implicitly defining the complete trajectories of the endogenous variables. Relying on the concept of Frisch decision functions, the impact of any parametric change on an endogenous variable can be decomposed into a direct and an indirect effect. The focus of the paper is on marginal changes in the rate of health capital depreciation. It also analyses the impact of either initial financial wealth or the initial stock of health capital. While the direction of most effects remains ambiguous in the full model, the assumption of a zero consumption benefit of health is sufficient to obtain a definite for any direct or indirect effect.

Safety of clinical and non-clinical decision makers in telephone triage: a narrative review.

PubMed

Wheeler, Sheila Q; Greenberg, Mary E; Mahlmeister, Laura; Wolfe, Nicole

2015-09-01

Patient safety is a persistent problem in telephone triage research; however, studies have not differentiated between clinicians' and non-clinicians' respective safety. Currently, four groups of decision makers perform aspects of telephone triage: clinicians (physicians, nurses), and non-clinicians (emergency medical dispatchers (EMD) and clerical staff). Using studies published between 2002-2012, we applied Donabedian's structure-process-outcome model to examine groups' systems for evidence of system completeness (a minimum measure of structure and quality). We defined system completeness as the presence of a decision maker and four additional components: guidelines, documentation, training, and standards. Defining safety as appropriate referrals (AR) - (right time, right place with the right person), we measured each groups' corresponding AR rate percentages (outcomes). We analyzed each group's respective decision-making process as a safe match to the telephone triage task, based on each group's system structure completeness, process and AR rates (outcome). Studies uniformly noted system component presence: nurses (2-4), physicians (1), EMDs (2), clerical staff (1). Nurses had the highest average appropriate referral (AR) rates (91%), physicians' AR (82% average). Clerical staff had no system and did not perform telephone triage by standard definitions; EMDs may represent the use of the wrong system. Telephone triage appears least safe after hours when decision makers with the least complete systems (physicians, clerical staff) typically manage calls. At minimum, telephone triage decision makers should be clinicians; however, clinicians' safety calls for improvement. With improved training, standards and CDSS quality, the 24/7 clinical call center has potential to represent the national standard. © The Author(s) 2015.

Reversibility of temperature driven discrete layer-by-layer formation of dioctyl-benzothieno-benzothiophene films.

PubMed

Dohr, M; Ehmann, H M A; Jones, A O F; Salzmann, I; Shen, Q; Teichert, C; Ruzié, C; Schweicher, G; Geerts, Y H; Resel, R; Sferrazza, M; Werzer, O

2017-03-22

Film forming properties of semiconducting organic molecules comprising alkyl-chains combined with an aromatic unit have a decisive impact on possible applications in organic electronics. In particular, knowledge on the film formation process in terms of wetting or dewetting, and the precise control of these processes, is of high importance. In the present work, the subtle effect of temperature on the morphology and structure of dioctyl[1]benzothieno[3,2-b][1]benzothiophene (C8-BTBT) films deposited on silica surfaces by spin coating is investigated in situ via X-ray diffraction techniques and atomic force microscopy. Depending on temperature, bulk C8-BTBT exhibits a crystalline, a smectic A and an isotropic phase. Heating of thin C8-BTBT layers at temperatures below the smectic phase transition temperature leads to a strong dewetting of the films. Upon approaching the smectic phase transition, the molecules start to rewet the surface in the form of discrete monolayers with a defined number of monolayers being present at a given temperature. The wetting process and layer formation is well defined and thermally stable at a given temperature. On cooling the reverse effect is observed and dewetting occurs. This demonstrates the full reversibility of the film formation behavior and reveals that the layering process is defined by an equilibrium thermodynamic state, rather than by kinetic effects.

Why we should talk about option generation in decision-making research

PubMed Central

Kalis, Annemarie; Kaiser, Stefan; Mojzisch, Andreas

2013-01-01

Most empirical studies on decision-making start from a set of given options for action. However, in everyday life there is usually no one asking you to choose between A, B, and C. Recently, the question how people come up with options has been receiving growing attention. However, so far there has been neither a systematic attempt to define the construct of “option” nor an attempt to show why decision-making research really needs this construct. This paper aims to fill that void by developing definitions of “option” and “option generation” that can be used as a basis for decision-making research in a wide variety of decision-making settings, while clarifying how these notions relate to familiar psychological constructs. We conclude our analysis by arguing that there are indeed reasons to believe that option generation is an important and distinct aspect of human decision-making. PMID:23986737

Gathering Real World Evidence with Cluster Analysis for Clinical Decision Support.

PubMed

Xia, Eryu; Liu, Haifeng; Li, Jing; Mei, Jing; Li, Xuejun; Xu, Enliang; Li, Xiang; Hu, Gang; Xie, Guotong; Xu, Meilin

2017-01-01

Clinical decision support systems are information technology systems that assist clinical decision-making tasks, which have been shown to enhance clinical performance. Cluster analysis, which groups similar patients together, aims to separate patient cases into phenotypically heterogenous groups and defining therapeutically homogeneous patient subclasses. Useful as it is, the application of cluster analysis in clinical decision support systems is less reported. Here, we describe the usage of cluster analysis in clinical decision support systems, by first dividing patient cases into similar groups and then providing diagnosis or treatment suggestions based on the group profiles. This integration provides data for clinical decisions and compiles a wide range of clinical practices to inform the performance of individual clinicians. We also include an example usage of the system under the scenario of blood lipid management in type 2 diabetes. These efforts represent a step toward promoting patient-centered care and enabling precision medicine.

Why we should talk about option generation in decision-making research.

PubMed

Kalis, Annemarie; Kaiser, Stefan; Mojzisch, Andreas

2013-01-01

Most empirical studies on decision-making start from a set of given options for action. However, in everyday life there is usually no one asking you to choose between A, B, and C. Recently, the question how people come up with options has been receiving growing attention. However, so far there has been neither a systematic attempt to define the construct of "option" nor an attempt to show why decision-making research really needs this construct. This paper aims to fill that void by developing definitions of "option" and "option generation" that can be used as a basis for decision-making research in a wide variety of decision-making settings, while clarifying how these notions relate to familiar psychological constructs. We conclude our analysis by arguing that there are indeed reasons to believe that option generation is an important and distinct aspect of human decision-making.

Decision Facilitator for Launch Operations using Intelligent Agents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thirumalainambi, Rajkumar; Bardina, Jorge

2005-01-01

Launch operations require millions of micro-decisions which contribute to the macro decision of 'Go/No-Go' for a launch. Knowledge workers"(such as managers and technical professionals) need information in a timely precise manner as it can greatly affect mission success. The intelligent agent (web search agent) uses the words of a hypertext markup language document which is connected through the internet. The intelligent agent's actions are to determine if its goal of seeking a website containing a specified target (e.g., keyword or phrase), has been met. There are few parameters that should be defined for the keyword search like "Go" and "No-Go". Instead of visiting launch and range decision making servers individually, the decision facilitator constantly connects to all servers, accumulating decisions so the final decision can be decided in a timely manner. The facilitator agent uses the singleton design pattern, which ensures that only a single instance of the facilitator agent exists at one time. Negotiations could proceed between many agents resulting in a final decision. This paper describes details of intelligent agents and their interaction to derive an unified decision support system.

Defining fire and wilderness objectives: Applying limits of acceptable change

Treesearch

David N. Cole

1995-01-01

The Limits of Acceptable Change (LAC) planning process was developed to help define objectives for recreation management in wilderness. This process can be applied to fire in wilderness if its conceptual foundation is broadened. LAC would lead decision makers to identify a compromise between the goal of allowing fire to play its natural role in wilderness and various...

Efficient GIS-based model-driven method for flood risk management and its application in central China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Zhou, J.; Song, L.; Zou, Q.; Guo, J.; Wang, Y.

2014-02-01

In recent years, an important development in flood management has been the focal shift from flood protection towards flood risk management. This change greatly promoted the progress of flood control research in a multidisciplinary way. Moreover, given the growing complexity and uncertainty in many decision situations of flood risk management, traditional methods, e.g., tight-coupling integration of one or more quantitative models, are not enough to provide decision support for managers. Within this context, this paper presents a beneficial methodological framework to enhance the effectiveness of decision support systems, through the dynamic adaptation of support regarding the needs of the decision-maker. In addition, we illustrate a loose-coupling technical prototype for integrating heterogeneous elements, such as multi-source data, multidisciplinary models, GIS tools and existing systems. The main innovation is the application of model-driven concepts, which put the system in a state of continuous iterative optimization. We define the new system as a model-driven decision support system (MDSS ). Two characteristics that differentiate the MDSS are as follows: (1) it is made accessible to non-technical specialists; and (2) it has a higher level of adaptability and compatibility. Furthermore, the MDSS was employed to manage the flood risk in the Jingjiang flood diversion area, located in central China near the Yangtze River. Compared with traditional solutions, we believe that this model-driven method is efficient, adaptable and flexible, and thus has bright prospects of application for comprehensive flood risk management.

Networks and games for precision medicine.

PubMed

Biane, Célia; Delaplace, Franck; Klaudel, Hanna

2016-12-01

Recent advances in omics technologies provide the leverage for the emergence of precision medicine that aims at personalizing therapy to patient. In this undertaking, computational methods play a central role for assisting physicians in their clinical decision-making by combining data analysis and systems biology modelling. Complex diseases such as cancer or diabetes arise from the intricate interplay of various biological molecules. Therefore, assessing drug efficiency requires to study the effects of elementary perturbations caused by diseases on relevant biological networks. In this paper, we propose a computational framework called Network-Action Game applied to best drug selection problem combining Game Theory and discrete models of dynamics (Boolean networks). Decision-making is modelled using Game Theory that defines the process of drug selection among alternative possibilities, while Boolean networks are used to model the effects of the interplay between disease and drugs actions on the patient's molecular system. The actions/strategies of disease and drugs are focused on arc alterations of the interactome. The efficiency of this framework has been evaluated for drug prediction on a model of breast cancer signalling. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Big girls don't cry: the effect of child witness demeanor on juror decisions in a child sexual abuse trial.

PubMed

Golding, Jonathan M; Fryman, Heather M; Marsil, Dorothy F; Yozwiak, John A

2003-11-01

This study investigated the effect of child witness demeanor (defined as crying) on mock jurors' decisions in a simulated First-Degree rape trial. One hundred and thirty-three undergraduates serving in the role of mock jurors read a trial summary in which the primary independent variable was the demeanor of the alleged child victim (i.e., calm, teary, hysterical crying). In addition to reading the summary, participants viewed pencil drawings of the witnesses that were presented as "courtroom drawings." The results showed that the teary condition led to more guilty verdicts and a greater belief in the alleged victim than the other demeanor conditions. Findings from this study indicate that demeanor can impact the perception of a child who is an alleged sexual assault victim in court. However, it is not simply the case that any display of demeanor will lead to a positive outcome for the alleged victim. Instead, it appears that too little or too much emotion from the alleged child victim negatively affected credibility in the eyes of the mock jurors.

Adaptive automation of human-machine system information-processing functions.

PubMed

Kaber, David B; Wright, Melanie C; Prinzel, Lawrence J; Clamann, Michael P

2005-01-01

The goal of this research was to describe the ability of human operators to interact with adaptive automation (AA) applied to various stages of complex systems information processing, defined in a model of human-automation interaction. Forty participants operated a simulation of an air traffic control task. Automated assistance was adaptively applied to information acquisition, information analysis, decision making, and action implementation aspects of the task based on operator workload states, which were measured using a secondary task. The differential effects of the forms of automation were determined and compared with a manual control condition. Results of two 20-min trials of AA or manual control revealed a significant effect of the type of automation on performance, particularly during manual control periods as part of the adaptive conditions. Humans appear to better adapt to AA applied to sensory and psychomotor information-processing functions (action implementation) than to AA applied to cognitive functions (information analysis and decision making), and AA is superior to completely manual control. Potential applications of this research include the design of automation to support air traffic controller information processing.

Diagnostic accuracy and receiver-operating characteristics curve analysis in surgical research and decision making.

PubMed

Søreide, Kjetil; Kørner, Hartwig; Søreide, Jon Arne

2011-01-01

In surgical research, the ability to correctly classify one type of condition or specific outcome from another is of great importance for variables influencing clinical decision making. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis is a useful tool in assessing the diagnostic accuracy of any variable with a continuous spectrum of results. In order to rule a disease state in or out with a given test, the test results are usually binary, with arbitrarily chosen cut-offs for defining disease versus health, or for grading of disease severity. In the postgenomic era, the translation from bench-to-bedside of biomarkers in various tissues and body fluids requires appropriate tools for analysis. In contrast to predetermining a cut-off value to define disease, the advantages of applying ROC analysis include the ability to test diagnostic accuracy across the entire range of variable scores and test outcomes. In addition, ROC analysis can easily examine visual and statistical comparisons across tests or scores. ROC is also favored because it is thought to be independent from the prevalence of the condition under investigation. ROC analysis is used in various surgical settings and across disciplines, including cancer research, biomarker assessment, imaging evaluation, and assessment of risk scores.With appropriate use, ROC curves may help identify the most appropriate cutoff value for clinical and surgical decision making and avoid confounding effects seen with subjective ratings. ROC curve results should always be put in perspective, because a good classifier does not guarantee the expected clinical outcome. In this review, we discuss the fundamental roles, suggested presentation, potential biases, and interpretation of ROC analysis in surgical research.

Four Common Simplifications of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis do not hold for River Rehabilitation

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

River rehabilitation aims at alleviating negative effects of human impacts such as loss of biodiversity and reduction of ecosystem services. Such interventions entail difficult trade-offs between different ecological and often socio-economic objectives. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is a very suitable approach that helps assessing the current ecological state and prioritizing river rehabilitation measures in a standardized way, based on stakeholder or expert preferences. Applications of MCDA in river rehabilitation projects are often simplified, i.e. using a limited number of objectives and indicators, assuming linear value functions, aggregating individual indicator assessments additively, and/or assuming risk neutrality of experts. Here, we demonstrate an implementation of MCDA expert preference assessments to river rehabilitation and provide ample material for other applications. To test whether the above simplifications reflect common expert opinion, we carried out very detailed interviews with five river ecologists and a hydraulic engineer. We defined essential objectives and measurable quality indicators (attributes), elicited the experts´ preferences for objectives on a standardized scale (value functions) and their risk attitude, and identified suitable aggregation methods. The experts recommended an extensive objectives hierarchy including between 54 and 93 essential objectives and between 37 to 61 essential attributes. For 81% of these, they defined non-linear value functions and in 76% recommended multiplicative aggregation. The experts were risk averse or risk prone (but never risk neutral), depending on the current ecological state of the river, and the experts´ personal importance of objectives. We conclude that the four commonly applied simplifications clearly do not reflect the opinion of river rehabilitation experts. The optimal level of model complexity, however, remains highly case-study specific depending on data and resource availability, the context, and the complexity of the decision problem. PMID:26954353

Factors associated with family satisfaction with end-of-life care in the ICU: a systematic review.

PubMed

Hinkle, Laura J; Bosslet, Gabriel T; Torke, Alexia M

2015-01-01

Family satisfaction with end-of-life care in the ICU has not previously been systematically reviewed. Our objective was to perform a review, synthesizing published data identifying factors associated with family satisfaction with end-of-life care in critically ill adult populations. The following electronic databases were searched: MEDLINE (Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online), MEDLINE Updated, EMBASE (Excerpta Medical Database), CINAHL (Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature), PsycInfo, and PubMed. Two authors reviewed retrieved titles and abstracts. Studies describing nonadult and non-ICU populations or not addressing end-of-life care, family satisfaction, or factors affecting satisfaction were excluded. The remaining articles underwent full review and data extraction by two authors. Quality was assessed using a checklist based on the recommendations of the Consolidated Standards for Reporting Trials group. The search yielded 1,072 articles, with 23 articles describing 14 studies meeting inclusion criteria. All studies obtained satisfaction data from family members via surveys and structured interviews. Specific communication strategies increasing satisfaction included: expressions of empathy, nonabandonment, and assurances of comfort and provision of written information. Additionally, support for shared decision-making, family presence at time of death, and specific patient-care measures such as extubation before death were associated with increased satisfaction. Good-quality communication, support for shared decision-making, and specific patient-care measures were associated with increased satisfaction with end-of-life care. Assessing the family's desire to participate in shared decision-making may also be an important factor. Few interventions increased satisfaction. Future research is needed to further define optimal communication strategies, understand effective integration of palliative care into the ICU, and define significant score changes in survey instruments.

Computer-assisted categorizing of head computed tomography reports for clinical decision rule research.

PubMed

Wall, Stephen P; Mayorga, Oliver; Banfield, Christine E; Wall, Mark E; Aisic, Ilan; Auerbach, Carl; Gennis, Paul

2006-11-01

To develop software that categorizes electronic head computed tomography (CT) reports into groups useful for clinical decision rule research. Data were obtained from the Second National Emergency X-Radiography Utilization Study, a cohort of head injury patients having received head CT. CT reports were reviewed manually for presence or absence of clinically important subdural or epidural hematoma, defined as greater than 1.0 cm in width or causing mass effect. Manual categorization was done by 2 independent researchers blinded to each other's results. A third researcher adjudicated discrepancies. A random sample of 300 reports with radiologic abnormalities was selected for software development. After excluding reports categorized manually or by software as indeterminate (neither positive nor negative), we calculated sensitivity and specificity by using manual categorization as the standard. System efficiency was defined as the percentage of reports categorized as positive or negative, regardless of accuracy. Software was refined until analysis of the training data yielded sensitivity and specificity approximating 95% and efficiency exceeding 75%. To test the system, we calculated sensitivity, specificity, and efficiency, using the remaining 1,911 reports. Of the 1,911 reports, 160 had clinically important subdural or epidural hematoma. The software exhibited good agreement with manual categorization of all reports, including indeterminate ones (weighted kappa 0.62; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.58 to 0.65). Sensitivity, specificity, and efficiency of the computerized system for identifying manual positives and negatives were 96% (95% CI 91% to 98%), 98% (95% CI 98% to 99%), and 79% (95% CI 77% to 80%), respectively. Categorizing head CT reports by computer for clinical decision rule research is feasible.

Microrisks for medical decision analysis.

PubMed

Howard, R A

1989-01-01

Many would agree on the need to inform patients about the risks of medical conditions or treatments and to consider those risks in making medical decisions. The question is how to describe the risks and how to balance them with other factors in arriving at a decision. In this article, we present the thesis that part of the answer lies in defining an appropriate scale for risks that are often quite small. We propose that a convenient unit in which to measure most medical risks is the microprobability, a probability of 1 in 1 million. When the risk consequence is death, we can define a micromort as one microprobability of death. Medical risks can be placed in perspective by noting that we live in a society where people face about 270 micromorts per year from interactions with motor vehicles. Continuing risks or hazards, such as are posed by following unhealthful practices or by the side-effects of drugs, can be described in the same micromort framework. If the consequence is not death, but some other serious consequence like blindness or amputation, the microrisk structure can be used to characterize the probability of disability. Once the risks are described in the microrisk form, they can be evaluated in terms of the patient's willingness-to-pay to avoid them. The suggested procedure is illustrated in the case of a woman facing a cranial arteriogram of a suspected arterio-venous malformation. Generic curves allow such analyses to be performed approximately in terms of the patient's sex, age, and economic situation. More detailed analyses can be performed if desired. Microrisk analysis is based on the proposition that precision in language permits the soundness of thought that produces clarity of action and peace of mind.

The utility of clinical decision tools for diagnosing osteoporosis in postmenopausal women with rheumatoid arthritis

PubMed Central

Brand, Caroline; Lowe, Adrian; Hall, Stephen

2008-01-01

Background Patients with rheumatoid arthritis have a higher risk of low bone mineral density than normal age matched populations. There is limited evidence to support cost effectiveness of population screening in rheumatoid arthritis and case finding strategies have been proposed as a means to increase cost effectiveness of diagnostic screening for osteoporosis. This study aimed to assess the performance attributes of generic and rheumatoid arthritis specific clinical decision tools for diagnosing osteoporosis in a postmenopausal population with rheumatoid arthritis who attend ambulatory specialist rheumatology clinics. Methods A cross-sectional study of 127 ambulatory post-menopausal women with rheumatoid arthritis was performed. Patients currently receiving or who had previously received bone active therapy were excluded. Eligible women underwent clinical assessment and dual-energy-xray absorptiometry (DXA) bone mineral density assessment. Clinical decision tools, including those specific for rheumatoid arthritis, were compared to seven generic post-menopausal tools to predict osteoporosis (defined as T score < -2.5). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive and negative predictive values and area under the curve were assessed. The diagnostic attributes of the clinical decision tools were compared by examination of the area under the receiver-operator-curve. Results One hundred and twenty seven women participated. The median age was 62 (IQR 56–71) years. Median disease duration was 108 (60–168) months. Seventy two (57%) women had no record of a previous DXA examination. Eighty (63%) women had T scores at femoral neck or lumbar spine less than -1. The area under the ROC curve for clinical decision tool prediction of T score <-2.5 varied between 0.63 and 0.76. The rheumatoid arthritis specific decision tools did not perform better than generic tools, however, the National Osteoporosis Foundation score could potentially reduce the number of unnecessary DXA tests by approximately 45% in this population. Conclusion There was limited utility of clinical decision tools for predicting osteoporosis in this patient population. Fracture prediction tools that include risk factors independent of BMD are needed. PMID:18230132

Expected utility of voluntary vaccination in the middle of an emergent Bluetongue virus serotype 8 epidemic: a decision analysis parameterized for Dutch circumstances.

PubMed

Sok, J; Hogeveen, H; Elbers, A R W; Velthuis, A G J; Oude Lansink, A G J M

2014-08-01

In order to put a halt to the Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) epidemic in 2008, the European Commission promoted vaccination at a transnational level as a new measure to combat BTV-8. Most European member states opted for a mandatory vaccination campaign, whereas the Netherlands, amongst others, opted for a voluntary campaign. For the latter to be effective, the farmer's willingness to vaccinate should be high enough to reach satisfactory vaccination coverage to stop the spread of the disease. This study looked at a farmer's expected utility of vaccination, which is expected to have a positive impact on the willingness to vaccinate. Decision analysis was used to structure the vaccination decision problem into decisions, events and payoffs, and to define the relationships among these elements. Two scenarios were formulated to distinguish farmers' mindsets, based on differences in dairy heifer management. For each of the scenarios, a decision tree was run for two years to study vaccination behaviour over time. The analysis was done based on the expected utility criterion. This allows to account for the effect of a farmer's risk preference on the vaccination decision. Probabilities were estimated by experts, payoffs were based on an earlier published study. According to the results of the simulation, the farmer decided initially to vaccinate against BTV-8 as the net expected utility of vaccination was positive. Re-vaccination was uncertain due to less expected costs of a continued outbreak. A risk averse farmer in this respect is more likely to re-vaccinate. When heifers were retained for export on the farm, the net expected utility of vaccination was found to be generally larger and thus was re-vaccination more likely to happen. For future animal health programmes that rely on a voluntary approach, results show that the provision of financial incentives can be adjusted to the farmers' willingness to vaccinate over time. Important in this respect are the decision moment and the characteristics of the disease. Farmers' perceptions of the disease risk and about the efficacy of available control options cannot be neglected. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing Generalisability in Model-Based Economic Evaluation Studies: A Structured Review in Osteoporosis

PubMed Central

Urdahl, Hege; Manca, Andrea; Sculpher, Mark J

2008-01-01

Background To support decision making many countries have now introduced some formal assessment process to evaluate whether health technologies represent good ‘value for money’. These often take the form of decision models which can be used to explore elements of importance to generalisability of study results across clinical settings and jurisdictions. The objectives of the present review were to assess: (i) whether the published studies clearly defined the decision-making audience for the model; (ii) the transparency of the reporting in terms of study question, structure and data inputs; (iii) the relevance of the data inputs used in the model to the stated decision-maker or jurisdiction; and (iv) how fully the robustness of the model's results to variation in data inputs between locations was assessed. Methods Articles reporting decision-analytic models in the area of osteoporosis were assessed to establish the extent to which the information provided enabled decision makers in different countries/jurisdictions to fully appreciate the variability of results according to location, and the relevance to their own. Results Of the 18 articles included in the review, only three explicitly stated the decision-making audience. It was not possible to infer a decision-making audience in eight studies. Target population was well reported, as was resource and cost data, and clinical data used for estimates of relative risk reduction. However, baseline risk was rarely adapted to the relevant jurisdiction, and when no decision-maker was explicit it was difficult to assess whether the reported cost and resource use data was in fact relevant. A few studies used sensitivity analysis to explore elements of generalisability, such as compliance rates and baseline fracture risk rates, although such analyses were generally restricted to evaluating parameter uncertainty. Conclusion This review found that variability in cost-effectiveness across locations is addressed to a varying extent in modelling studies in the field of osteoporosis, limiting their use for decision-makers across different locations. Transparency of reporting is expected to increase as methodology develops, and decision-makers publish “reference case” type guidance. PMID:17129074

Nurse managers' decision-making in daily unit operation in peri-operative settings: a cross-sectional descriptive study.

PubMed

Siirala, Eriikka; Peltonen, Laura-Maria; Lundgrén-Laine, Heljä; Salanterä, Sanna; Junttila, Kristiina

2016-09-01

To describe the tactical and the operational decisions made by nurse managers when managing the daily unit operation in peri-operative settings. Management is challenging as situations change rapidly and decisions are constantly made. Understanding decision-making in this complex environment helps to develop decision support systems to support nurse managers' operative and tactical decision-making. Descriptive cross-sectional design. Data were collected from 20 nurse managers with the think-aloud method during the busiest working hours and analysed using thematic content analysis. Nurse managers made over 700 decisions; either ad hoc (n = 289), near future (n = 268) or long-term (n = 187) by nature. Decisions were often made simultaneously with many interruptions. Ad hoc decisions covered staff allocation, ensuring adequate staff, rescheduling surgical procedures, confirmation tangible resources and following-up the daily unit operation. Decisions in the near future were: planning of surgical procedures and tangible resources, and planning staff allocation. Long-term decisions were: human recourses, nursing development, supplies and equipment, and finances in the unit. Decision-making was vulnerable to interruptions, which sometimes complicated the managing tasks. The results can be used when planning decision support systems and when defining the nurse managers' tasks in peri-operative settings. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.