Sample records for defining climate zones

  1. Hybrid Zones: Windows on Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Larson, Erica L.; Harrison, Richard G.

    2016-01-01

    Defining the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on biodiversity and species distributions is currently a high priority. Niche models focus primarily on predicted changes in abiotic factors; however, species interactions and adaptive evolution will impact the ability of species to persist in the face of changing climate. Our review focuses on the use of hybrid zones to monitor species' responses to contemporary climate change. Monitoring hybrid zones provides insight into how range boundaries shift in response to climate change by illuminating the combined effects of species interactions and physiological sensitivity. At the same time, the semi-permeable nature of species boundaries allows us to document adaptive introgression of alleles associated with response to climate change. PMID:25982153

  2. A first approach to calculate BIOCLIM variables and climate zones for Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagner, Monika; Trutschnig, Wolfgang; Bathke, Arne C.; Ruprecht, Ulrike

    2018-02-01

    For testing the hypothesis that macroclimatological factors determine the occurrence, biodiversity, and species specificity of both symbiotic partners of Antarctic lecideoid lichens, we present a first approach for the computation of the full set of 19 BIOCLIM variables, as available at http://www.worldclim.org/ for all regions of the world with exception of Antarctica. Annual mean temperature (Bio 1) and annual precipitation (Bio 12) were chosen to define climate zones of the Antarctic continent and adjacent islands as required for ecological niche modeling (ENM). The zones are based on data for the years 2009-2015 which was obtained from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) database of the Ohio State University. For both temperature and precipitation, two separate zonings were specified; temperature values were divided into 12 zones (named 1 to 12) and precipitation values into five (named A to E). By combining these two partitions, we defined climate zonings where each geographical point can be uniquely assigned to exactly one zone, which allows an immediate explicit interpretation. The soundness of the newly calculated climate zones was tested by comparison with already published data, which used only three zones defined on climate information from the literature. The newly defined climate zones result in a more precise assignment of species distribution to the single habitats. This study provides the basis for a more detailed continental-wide ENM using a comprehensive dataset of lichen specimens which are located within 21 different climate regions.

  3. Climate change and dead zones.

    PubMed

    Altieri, Andrew H; Gedan, Keryn B

    2015-04-01

    Estuaries and coastal seas provide valuable ecosystem services but are particularly vulnerable to the co-occurring threats of climate change and oxygen-depleted dead zones. We analyzed the severity of climate change predicted for existing dead zones, and found that 94% of dead zones are in regions that will experience at least a 2 °C temperature increase by the end of the century. We then reviewed how climate change will exacerbate hypoxic conditions through oceanographic, ecological, and physiological processes. We found evidence that suggests numerous climate variables including temperature, ocean acidification, sea-level rise, precipitation, wind, and storm patterns will affect dead zones, and that each of those factors has the potential to act through multiple pathways on both oxygen availability and ecological responses to hypoxia. Given the variety and strength of the mechanisms by which climate change exacerbates hypoxia, and the rates at which climate is changing, we posit that climate change variables are contributing to the dead zone epidemic by acting synergistically with one another and with recognized anthropogenic triggers of hypoxia including eutrophication. This suggests that a multidisciplinary, integrated approach that considers the full range of climate variables is needed to track and potentially reverse the spread of dead zones. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Vegetation zones in changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belda, Michal; Holtanova, Eva; Halenka, Tomas; Kalvova, Jaroslava

    2017-04-01

    of individual types, in the continental scale some shifts of boundaries between the selected types can be studied as well providing the information on climate change signal. The shift of the boundary between the boreal zone and continental temperate zone to the north is clearly seen in most simulations as well as eastern move of the boundary of the maritime and continental type of temperate zone. However, there can be quite clear problem with model biases in climate types association. When analysing climate types in Europe and their shifts under climate change using Köppen-Trewartha classification (KTC), for the temperate climate type there are subtypes defined following the continentality patterns, and we can see their generally meridionally located divide across Europe shifted to the east. There is a question whether this is realistic or rather due to the simplistic condition in KTC following the winter minimum temperature, while other continentality indices consider rather the amplitude of temperature during the year. This leads us to connect our analysis of climate change effects using climate classification to the more detailed analysis of continentality patterns development in Europe to provide better insight on the climate regimes and to verify the continentality conditions, their definitions and climate change effects on them. The comparison of several selected continentality indices is shown.

  5. Potential impacts of climate change on the built environment: ASHRAE climate zones, building codes and national energy efficiency

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    New, Joshua Ryan; Kumar, Jitendra; Hoffman, Forrest M.

    Statement of the Problem: ASHRAE releases updates to 90.1 “Energy Standard for Buildings except Low-Rise Residential Buildings” every three years resulting in a 3.7%-17.3% increase in energy efficiency for buildings with each release. This is adopted by or informs building codes in nations across the globe, is the National Standard for the US, and individual states elect which release year of the standard they will enforce. These codes are built upon Standard 169 “Climatic Data for Building Design Standards,” the latest 2017 release of which defines climate zones based on 8, 118 weather stations throughout the world and data frommore » the past 8-25 years. This data may not be indicative of the weather that new buildings built today, will see during their upcoming 30-120 year lifespan. Methodology & Theoretical Orientation: Using more modern, high-resolution datasets from climate satellites, IPCC climate models (PCM and HadGCM), high performance computing resources (Titan) and new capabilities for clustering and optimization the authors briefly analyzed different methods for redefining climate zones. Using bottom-up analysis of multiple meteorological variables which were the subject matter, experts selected as being important to energy consumption, rather than the heating/cooling degree days currently used. Findings: We analyzed the accuracy of redefined climate zones, compared to current climate zones and how the climate zones moved under different climate change scenarios, and quantified the accuracy of these methods on a local level, at a national scale for the US. Conclusion & Significance: There is likely to be a significant annual, national energy and cost (billions USD) savings that could be realized by adjusting climate zones to take into account anticipated trends or scenarios in regional weather patterns.« less

  6. Sensitivity of Vadose Zone Water Fluxes to Climate Shifts in Arid Settings

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Pfletschinger, H.; Prömmel, K.; Schüth, C.

    2014-01-01

    Vadose zone water fluxes in arid settings are investigated regarding their sensitivity to hydraulic soil parameters and meteorological data. The study is based on the inverse modeling of highly defined soil column experiments and subsequent scenario modeling comparing different climate projections for a defined arid region. In arid regions, groundwater resources are prone to depletion due to excessive water use and little recharge potential. Especially in sand dune areas, groundwater recharge is highly dependent on vadose zone properties and corresponding water fluxes. Nevertheless, vadose zone water fluxes under arid conditions are hard to determine owing to, among other reasons, deepmore » vadose zones with generally low fluxes and only sporadic high infiltration events. In this study, we present an inverse model of infiltration experiments accounting for variable saturated nonisothermal water fluxes to estimate effective hydraulic and thermal parameters of dune sands. A subsequent scenario modeling links the results of the inverse model with projections of a global climate model until 2100. The scenario modeling clearly showed the high dependency of groundwater recharge on precipitation amounts and intensities, whereas temperature increases are only of minor importance for deep infiltration. However, simulated precipitation rates are still affected by high uncertainties in the response to the hydrological input data of the climate model. Thus, higher certainty in the prediction of precipitation pattern is a major future goal for climate modeling to constrain future groundwater management strategies in arid regions.« less

  7. Multiclass Classification of Agro-Ecological Zones for Arabica Coffee: An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Bunn, Christian; Läderach, Peter; Pérez Jimenez, Juan Guillermo; Montagnon, Christophe; Schilling, Timothy

    2015-01-01

    Cultivation of Coffea arabica is highly sensitive to and has been shown to be negatively impacted by progressive climatic changes. Previous research contributed little to support forward-looking adaptation. Agro-ecological zoning is a common tool to identify homologous environments and prioritize research. We demonstrate here a pragmatic approach to describe spatial changes in agro-climatic zones suitable for coffee under current and future climates. We defined agro-ecological zones suitable to produce arabica coffee by clustering geo-referenced coffee occurrence locations based on bio-climatic variables. We used random forest classification of climate data layers to model the spatial distribution of these agro-ecological zones. We used these zones to identify spatially explicit impact scenarios and to choose locations for the long-term evaluation of adaptation measures as climate changes. We found that in zones currently classified as hot and dry, climate change will impact arabica more than those that are better suited to it. Research in these zones should therefore focus on expanding arabica's environmental limits. Zones that currently have climates better suited for arabica will migrate upwards by about 500m in elevation. In these zones the up-slope migration will be gradual, but will likely have negative ecosystem impacts. Additionally, we identified locations that with high probability will not change their climatic characteristics and are suitable to evaluate C. arabica germplasm in the face of climate change. These locations should be used to investigate long term adaptation strategies to production systems. PMID:26505637

  8. Multiclass Classification of Agro-Ecological Zones for Arabica Coffee: An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Bunn, Christian; Läderach, Peter; Pérez Jimenez, Juan Guillermo; Montagnon, Christophe; Schilling, Timothy

    2015-01-01

    Cultivation of Coffea arabica is highly sensitive to and has been shown to be negatively impacted by progressive climatic changes. Previous research contributed little to support forward-looking adaptation. Agro-ecological zoning is a common tool to identify homologous environments and prioritize research. We demonstrate here a pragmatic approach to describe spatial changes in agro-climatic zones suitable for coffee under current and future climates. We defined agro-ecological zones suitable to produce arabica coffee by clustering geo-referenced coffee occurrence locations based on bio-climatic variables. We used random forest classification of climate data layers to model the spatial distribution of these agro-ecological zones. We used these zones to identify spatially explicit impact scenarios and to choose locations for the long-term evaluation of adaptation measures as climate changes. We found that in zones currently classified as hot and dry, climate change will impact arabica more than those that are better suited to it. Research in these zones should therefore focus on expanding arabica's environmental limits. Zones that currently have climates better suited for arabica will migrate upwards by about 500m in elevation. In these zones the up-slope migration will be gradual, but will likely have negative ecosystem impacts. Additionally, we identified locations that with high probability will not change their climatic characteristics and are suitable to evaluate C. arabica germplasm in the face of climate change. These locations should be used to investigate long term adaptation strategies to production systems.

  9. Climate-based seed zones for Mexico: guiding reforestation under observed and projected climate change

    Treesearch

    Dante Castellanos-Acuña; Kenneth W. Vance-Borland; J. Bradley St. Clair; Andreas Hamann; Javier López-Upton; Erika Gómez-Pineda; Juan Manuel Ortega-Rodríguez; Cuauhtémoc Sáenz-Romero

    2018-01-01

    Seed zones for forest tree species are a widely used tool in reforestation programs to ensure that seedlings are well adapted to their planting environments. Here, we propose a climate-based seed zone system for Mexico to address observed and projected climate change. The proposed seed zone classification is based on bands of climate variables often related to genetic...

  10. Downscaling NASA Climatological Data to Produce Detailed Climate Zone Maps

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chandler, William S.; Hoell, James M.; Westberg, David J.; Whitlock, Charles H.; Zhang, Taiping; Stackhouse, P. W.

    2011-01-01

    The design of energy efficient sustainable buildings is heavily dependent on accurate long-term and near real-time local weather data. To varying degrees the current meteorological networks over the globe have been used to provide these data albeit often from sites far removed from the desired location. The national need is for access to weather and solar resource data accurate enough to use to develop preliminary building designs within a short proposal time limit, usually within 60 days. The NASA Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project was established by NASA to provide industry friendly access to globally distributed solar and meteorological data. As a result, the POWER web site (power.larc.nasa.gov) now provides global information on many renewable energy parameters and several buildings-related items but at a relatively coarse resolution. This paper describes a method of downscaling NASA atmospheric assimilation model results to higher resolution and maps those parameters to produce building climate zone maps using estimates of temperature and precipitation. The distribution of climate zones for North America with an emphasis on the Pacific Northwest for just one year shows very good correspondence to the currently defined distribution. The method has the potential to provide a consistent procedure for deriving climate zone information on a global basis that can be assessed for variability and updated more regularly.

  11. Defining the Fresnel zone for broadband radiation.

    PubMed

    Pearce, Jeremy; Mittleman, Daniel

    2002-11-01

    The concept of the Fresnel zone is central to many areas of imaging. In tomographic imaging, the transverse spatial resolution can be limited by the size of the first Fresnel zone, usually defined only for monochromatic radiation. With the increasing prevalence of broadband tomographic imaging systems, a generalization of this concept is required. Here, a proposed generalization is described in the context of femtosecond optics, and experimentally verified using terahertz time-domain spectroscopy. Based on this definition, a simple zone plate design is demonstrated.

  12. Wetlands, climate zones and Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia.

    PubMed

    Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

    2012-12-01

    Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is the second most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia, but the linkages of the wetlands and climate zones with BFV transmission remain unclear. We aimed to examine the relationship between the wetlands, climate zones and BFV risk in Queensland, Australia. Data on the wetlands, climate zones, population and BFV cases for the period 1992 to 2008 were obtained from relevant government agencies. BFV risk was grouped as low-, medium- and high-level based on BFV incidence percentiles. The buffer zones around each BFV case were made using 1, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 50km distances. We performed a discriminant analysis to determine the differences between wetland classes and BFV risk within each climate zone. The discriminant analyses show that saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant contributors to BFV risk in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. These models had classification accuracies of 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV risk varies with wetland class and climate zone. The discriminant analysis is a useful tool to quantify the links between wetlands, climate zones and BFV risk. Copyright © 2012 Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Dermatophytosis among Schoolchildren in Three Eco-climatic Zones of Mali

    PubMed Central

    Coulibaly, Oumar; Kone, Abdoulaye K.; Niaré-Doumbo, Safiatou; Goïta, Siaka; Gaudart, Jean; Djimdé, Abdoulaye A.; Piarroux, Renaud; Doumbo, Ogobara K.; Thera, Mahamadou A.

    2016-01-01

    Background Dermatophytosis, and particularly the subtype tinea capitis, is common among African children; however, the risk factors associated with this condition are poorly understood. To describe the epidemiology of dermatophytosis in distinct eco-climatic zones, three cross-sectional surveys were conducted in public primary schools located in the Sahelian, Sudanian and Sudano-Guinean eco-climatic zones in Mali. Principal Findings Among 590 children (average age 9.7 years) the overall clinical prevalence of tinea capitis was 39.3%. Tinea capitis prevalence was 59.5% in the Sudano-Guinean zone, 41.6% in the Sudanian zone and 17% in the Sahelian eco-climatic zone. Microsporum audouinii was isolated primarily from large and/or microsporic lesions. Trichophyton soudanense was primarily isolated from trichophytic lesions. Based on the multivariate analysis, tinea capitis was independently associated with male gender (OR = 2.51, 95%CI [1.74–3.61], P<10−4) and residing in the Sudano-Guinean eco-climatic zone (OR = 7.45, 95%CI [4.63–11.99], P<10−4). Two anthropophilic dermatophytes species, Trichophyton soudanense and Microsporum audouinii, were the most frequent species associated with tinea capitis among primary schoolchildren in Mali. Conclusions Tinea capitis risk increased with increasing climate humidity in this relatively homogenous schoolchild population in Mali, which suggests a significant role of climatic factors in the epidemiology of dermatophytosis. PMID:27124571

  14. Dermatophytosis among Schoolchildren in Three Eco-climatic Zones of Mali.

    PubMed

    Coulibaly, Oumar; Kone, Abdoulaye K; Niaré-Doumbo, Safiatou; Goïta, Siaka; Gaudart, Jean; Djimdé, Abdoulaye A; Piarroux, Renaud; Doumbo, Ogobara K; Thera, Mahamadou A; Ranque, Stéphane

    2016-04-01

    Dermatophytosis, and particularly the subtype tinea capitis, is common among African children; however, the risk factors associated with this condition are poorly understood. To describe the epidemiology of dermatophytosis in distinct eco-climatic zones, three cross-sectional surveys were conducted in public primary schools located in the Sahelian, Sudanian and Sudano-Guinean eco-climatic zones in Mali. Among 590 children (average age 9.7 years) the overall clinical prevalence of tinea capitis was 39.3%. Tinea capitis prevalence was 59.5% in the Sudano-Guinean zone, 41.6% in the Sudanian zone and 17% in the Sahelian eco-climatic zone. Microsporum audouinii was isolated primarily from large and/or microsporic lesions. Trichophyton soudanense was primarily isolated from trichophytic lesions. Based on the multivariate analysis, tinea capitis was independently associated with male gender (OR = 2.51, 95%CI [1.74-3.61], P<10(-4)) and residing in the Sudano-Guinean eco-climatic zone (OR = 7.45, 95%CI [4.63-11.99], P<10(-4)). Two anthropophilic dermatophytes species, Trichophyton soudanense and Microsporum audouinii, were the most frequent species associated with tinea capitis among primary schoolchildren in Mali. Tinea capitis risk increased with increasing climate humidity in this relatively homogenous schoolchild population in Mali, which suggests a significant role of climatic factors in the epidemiology of dermatophytosis.

  15. Defining fire environment zones in the boreal forests of northeastern China.

    PubMed

    Wu, Zhiwei; He, Hong S; Yang, Jian; Liang, Yu

    2015-06-15

    Fire activity in boreal forests will substantially increase with prolonged growing seasons under a warming climate. This trend poses challenges to managing fires in boreal forest landscapes. A fire environment zone map offers a basis for evaluating these fire-related problems and designing more effective fire management plans to improve the allocation of management resources across a landscape. Toward that goal, we identified three fire environment zones across boreal forest landscapes in northeastern China using analytical methods to identify spatial clustering of the environmental variables of climate, vegetation, topography, and human activity. The three fire environment zones were found to be in strong agreement with the spatial distributions of the historical fire data (occurrence, size, and frequency) for 1966-2005. This paper discusses how the resulting fire environment zone map can be used to guide forest fire management and fire regime prediction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. On validation of the rain climatic zone designations for Nigeria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Obiyemi, O. O.; Ibiyemi, T. S.; Ojo, J. S.

    2017-07-01

    In this paper, validation of rain climatic zone classifications for Nigeria is presented based on global radio-climatic models by the International Telecommunication Union-Radiocommunication (ITU-R) and Crane. Rain rate estimates deduced from several ground-based measurements and those earlier estimated from the precipitation index on the Tropical Rain Measurement Mission (TRMM) were employed for the validation exercise. Although earlier classifications indicated that Nigeria falls into zones P, Q, N, and K for the ITU-R designations, and zones E and H for Crane's climatic zone designations, the results however confirmed that the rain climatic zones across Nigeria can only be classified into four, namely P, Q, M, and N for the ITU-R designations, while the designations by Crane exhibited only three zones, namely E, G, and H. The ITU-R classification was found to be more suitable for planning microwave and millimeter wave links across Nigeria. The research outcomes are vital in boosting the confidence level of system designers in using the ITU-R designations as presented in the map developed for the rain zone designations for estimating the attenuation induced by rain along satellite and terrestrial microwave links over Nigeria.

  17. [Defining of wheat growth management zones based on remote sensing and geostatistics].

    PubMed

    Huang, Yan; Zhu, Yan; Ma, Meng-Li; Wang, Hang; Cao, Wei-Xing; Tian, Yong-Chao

    2011-02-01

    Taking the winter wheat planting areas in Rugao City and Haian County of Jiangsu Province as test objects, the clustering defining of wheat growth management zones was made, based on the spatial variability analysis and principal component extraction of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data calculated from the HJ-1A/B CCD images (30 m resolution) at different growth stages of winter wheat, and of the soil nutrient indices (total nitrogen, organic matter, available phosphorus, and available potassium). The results showed that the integration of the NDVI at heading stage with above-mentioned soil nutrient indices produced the best results of wheat growth management zone defining, with the variation coefficients of NDVI and soil nutrient indices in each defined zone ranged in 4.5% -6.1% and 3.3% -87.9%, respectively. However, the variation coefficients were much larger when the wheat growth management zones were defined individually by NDVI or by soil nutrient indices, suggesting that the newly developed defining method could reduce the variability within the defined management zones and improve the crop management precision, and thereby, contribute to the winter wheat growth management and process simulation at regional scale.

  18. Assessing the optimality of ASHRAE climate zones using high resolution meteorological data sets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fils, P. D.; Kumar, J.; Collier, N.; Hoffman, F. M.; Xu, M.; Forbes, W.

    2017-12-01

    Energy consumed by built infrastructure constitutes a significant fraction of the nation's energy budget. According to 2015 US Energy Information Agency report, 41% of the energy used in the US was going to residential and commercial buildings. Additional research has shown that 32% of commercial building energy goes into heating and cooling the building. The American National Standards Institute and the American Society of Heating Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers Standard 90.1 provides climate zones for current state-of-practice since heating and cooling demands are strongly influenced by spatio-temporal weather variations. For this reason, we have been assessing the optimality of the climate zones using high resolution daily climate data from NASA's DAYMET database. We analyzed time series of meteorological data sets for all ASHRAE climate zones between 1980-2016 inclusively. We computed the mean, standard deviation, and other statistics for a set of meteorological variables (solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperature)within each zone. By plotting all the zonal statistics, we analyzed patterns and trends in those data over the past 36 years. We compared the means of each zone to its standard deviation to determine the range of spatial variability that exist within each zone. If the band around the mean is too large, it indicates that regions in the zone experience a wide range of weather conditions and perhaps a common set of building design guidelines would lead to a non-optimal energy consumption scenario. In this study we have observed a strong variation in the different climate zones. Some have shown consistent patterns in the past 36 years, indicating that the zone was well constructed, while others have greatly deviated from their mean indicating that the zone needs to be reconstructed. We also looked at redesigning the climate zones based on high resolution climate data. We are using building simulations models like EnergyPlus to develop

  19. Defining Flood Zone Transitions in Low-Gradient Coastal Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.

    2018-03-01

    Worldwide, coastal, and deltaic communities are susceptible to flooding from the individual and combined effects of rainfall excess and astronomic tide and storm surge inundation. Such flood events are a present (and future) cause of concern as observed from recent storms such as the 2016 Louisiana flood and Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria. To assess flood risk across coastal landscapes, it is advantageous to first delineate flood transition zones, which we define as areas susceptible to hydrologic and coastal flooding and their collective interaction. We utilize numerical simulations combining rainfall excess and storm surge for the 2016 Louisiana flood to describe a flood transition zone for southeastern Louisiana. We show that the interaction of rainfall excess with coastal surge is nonlinear and less than the superposition of their individual components. Our analysis provides a foundation to define flooding zones across coastal landscapes throughout the world to support flood risk assessments.

  20. Progress in Australian dendroclimatology: Identifying growth limiting factors in four climate zones.

    PubMed

    Haines, Heather A; Olley, Jon M; Kemp, Justine; English, Nathan B

    2016-12-01

    Dendroclimatology can be used to better understand past climate in regions such as Australia where instrumental and historical climate records are sparse and rarely extend beyond 100years. Here we review 36 Australian dendroclimatic studies which cover the four major climate zones of Australia; temperate, arid, subtropical and tropical. We show that all of these zones contain tree and shrub species which have the potential to provide high quality records of past climate. Despite this potential only four dendroclimatic reconstructions have been published for Australia, one from each of the climate zones: A 3592year temperature record for the SE-temperate zone, a 350year rainfall record for the Western arid zone, a 140year rainfall record for the northern tropics and a 146year rainfall record for SE-subtropics. We report on the spatial distribution of tree-ring studies, the environmental variables identified as limiting tree growth in each study, and identify the key challenges in using tree-ring records for climate reconstruction in Australia. We show that many Australian species have yet to be tested for dendroclimatological potential, and that the application of newer techniques including isotopic analysis, carbon dating, wood density measurements, and anatomical analysis, combined with traditional ring-width measurements should enable more species in each of the climate zones to be used, and long-term climate records to be developed across the entire continent. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Agro-climatic zoning of Jatropha curcas as a subside for crop planning and implementation in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Yamada, Eliane S M; Sentelhas, Paulo C

    2014-11-01

    As jatropha (Jatropha curcas L.) is a recent crop in Brazil, the studies for defining its suitability for different regions are not yet available, even considering the promises about this plant as of high potential for marginal zones where poor soils and dry climate occur. Based on that, the present study had as objective to characterize the climatic conditions of jatropha's center of origin in Central America for establishing its climatic requirements and to develop the agro-climatic zoning for this crop for some Brazilian regions where, according to the literature, it would be suitable. For classifying the climatic conditions of the jatropha's center of origin, climate data from 123 weather stations located in Mexico (93) and in Guatemala (30) were used. These data were input for Thornthwaite and Mather's climatological water balance for determining the annual water deficiency (WD) and water surplus (WS) of each location, considering a soil water-holding capacity (SWHC) of 100 mm. Mean annual temperature (T m), WD, and WS data were organized in histograms for defining the limits of suitability for jatropha cultivation. The results showed that the suitable range of T m for jatropha cultivation is between 23 and 27 °C. T m between 15 and 22.9 °C and between 27.1 and 28 °C were classified as marginal by thermal deficiency and excess, respectively. T m below 15 °C and above 28 °C were considered as unsuitable for jatropha cultivation, respectively, by risk of frosts and physiological disturbs. For WD, suitability for rain-fed jatropha cultivation was considered when its value is below 360 mm, while between 361 and 720 mm is considered as marginal and over 720 mm unsuitable. The same order of suitability was also defined for WS, with the following limits: suitable for WS up to 1,200 mm; marginal for WS between 1,201 and 2,400 mm, and unsuitable for WS above 2,400 mm. For the crop zoning, the criteria previously defined were applied to 1,814 climate stations in

  2. Climate Change Literacy across the Critical Zone Observatory Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, A.; Derry, L. A.; Zabel, I.; Duggan-Haas, D.; Ross, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Earth's Critical Zone extends from the top of the tree canopy to the base of the groundwater lens. Thus the Critical Zone is examined as a suite of interconnected systems and study of the CZ is inherently interdisciplinary. Climate change is an important driver of CZ processes. The US Critical Zone Observatory Network comprises nine observatories and a coordinating National Office. Educational programs and materials developed at each CZO and the National Office have been collected, reviewed, and presented on-line at the CZONO (criticalzone.org/national/education-outreach/resources). Because the CZOs are designed to observe and measure a suite of common parameters on varying geological substrates and within different ecological contexts, educational resources reflect the diversity of processes represented across the network. As climate change has a network-wide impact, the fundamental building blocks of climate change literacy are key elements in many activities within the CZONO resource collection. Carbon-cycle and hydrologic cycle processes are well-represented, with emphasis on human interactions with these resources, as well as the impact of extreme events and the changing climate. Current work on the resource collection focuses on connecting individual resources to "Teach Climate Science" project and the Teacher-Friendly Guide to Climate Change (teachclimatescience.wordpress.com). The Teacher-Friendly Guide is a manual for K-12 teachers that presents both the fundamentals of climate science alongside resources for effective teaching of this controversial topic. Using the reach of the CZO network we hope to disseminate effective climate literacy resources and support to the K-12 community.

  3. An Assessment of Actual and Potential Building Climate Zone Change and Variability From the Last 30 Years Through 2100 Using NASA's MERRA and CMIP5 Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.; Chandler, William S.; Hoell, James M.; Westberg, David; Zhang, Taiping

    2015-01-01

    Background: In the US, residential and commercial building infrastructure combined consumes about 40% of total energy usage and emits about 39% of total CO2 emission (DOE/EIA "Annual Energy Outlook 2013"). Building codes, as used by local and state enforcement entities are typically tied to the dominant climate within an enforcement jurisdiction classified according to various climate zones. These climate zones are based upon a 30-year average of local surface observations and are developed by DOE and ASHRAE. Establishing the current variability and potential changes to future building climate zones is very important for increasing the energy efficiency of buildings and reducing energy costs and emissions in the future. Objectives: This paper demonstrates the usefulness of using NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) atmospheric data assimilation to derive the DOE/ASHRAE building climate zone maps and then using MERRA to define the last 30 years of variability in climate zones for the Continental US. An atmospheric assimilation is a global atmospheric model optimized to satellite, atmospheric and surface in situ measurements. Using MERRA as a baseline, we then evaluate the latest Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) climate model Version 5 runs to assess potential variability in future climate zones under various assumptions. Methods: We derive DOE/ASHRAE building climate zones using surface and temperature data products from MERRA. We assess these zones using the uncertainties derived by comparison to surface measurements. Using statistical tests, we evaluate variability of the climate zones in time and assess areas in the continental US for statistically significant trends by region. CMIP 5 produced a data base of over two dozen detailed climate model runs under various greenhouse gas forcing assumptions. We evaluate the variation in building climate zones for 3 different decades using an ensemble and quartile

  4. The effects of climate change on heating energy consumption of office buildings in different climate zones in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, Fanchao; Li, Mingcai; Cao, Jingfu; Li, Ji; Xiong, Mingming; Feng, Xiaomei; Ren, Guoyu

    2017-06-01

    Climate plays an important role in heating energy consumption owing to the direct relationship between space heating and changes in meteorological conditions. To quantify the impact, the Transient System Simulation Program software was used to simulate the heating loads of office buildings in Harbin, Tianjin, and Shanghai, representing three major climate zones (i.e., severe cold, cold, and hot summer and cold winter climate zones) in China during 1961-2010. Stepwise multiple linear regression was performed to determine the key climatic parameters influencing heating energy consumption. The results showed that dry bulb temperature (DBT) is the dominant climatic parameter affecting building heating loads in all three climate zones across China during the heating period at daily, monthly, and yearly scales (R 2 ≥ 0.86). With the continuous warming climate in winter over the past 50 years, heating loads decreased by 14.2, 7.2, and 7.1 W/m2 in Harbin, Tianjin, and Shanghai, respectively, indicating that the decreasing rate is more apparent in severe cold climate zone. When the DBT increases by 1 °C, the heating loads decrease by 253.1 W/m2 in Harbin, 177.2 W/m2 in Tianjin, and 126.4 W/m2 in Shanghai. These results suggest that the heating energy consumption can be well predicted by the regression models at different temporal scales in different climate conditions owing to the high determination coefficients. In addition, a greater decrease in heating energy consumption in northern severe cold and cold climate zones may efficiently promote the energy saving in these areas with high energy consumption for heating. Particularly, the likely future increase in temperatures should be considered in improving building energy efficiency.

  5. The global climate change effect on the Altai region's climate in the first half of XXI century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lagutin, Anatoly A.; Volkov, Nikolai V.; Makushev, Konstantin M.; Mordvin, Egor Yu.

    2017-11-01

    We investigate an effect of global climate system change on climate of Altai region. It is shown that a data of the RegCM4 regional climate model, obtained for contemporary and future periods, within an approach which is based on standard Euclidean distance, allows to define specific zones in which climate change is forecasted. Such zones have been defined for the Altai region territory within the framework of global radiative forcing scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the middle of XXI century.

  6. Climatic zoning for the calculation of the thermal demand of buildings in Extremadura (Spain)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moral, Francisco J.; Pulido, Elena; Ruíz, Antonio; López, Fernando

    2017-08-01

    The present work reports on a methodology to assess the climatic severity of a particular geographic region as compared to specific information available in the current regulations. The viability for each of the 387 municipalities in the Autonomous Community of Extremadura (Spain) is analysed, making a distinction between those with reliable climate reports and those for which no such information is available. In the case study, although the weather conditions in Extremadura are quite homogeneous according to the Spanish Technical Building Code (STBC 2015) classification and most areas are associated to zone C4 (soft winters and hot summers), the southern area in the region is associated to zone D1, similar to the north of Spain, where winters and summers are cool, which does not coincide with the actual climate in the south of Extremadura. The general climatic homogeneity in Extremadura was also highlighted with the new procedure, predominating zone C4, but unexpected or unreal climatic zoning was not generated, giving place to a consistent spatial distribution of zones throughout the region. Consequently, the proposed method allows a more accurate climatic zoning of any region in agreement with the Spanish legislation on energy efficiency in buildings, which would enhance the setting of thermal demand rates according to the actual climatic characterisation of the area in which a particular municipality is located.

  7. Analysis of projected climate change in the Carpathian Basin region based on Holdridge life zone system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szelepcsényi, Zoltán; Breuer, Hajnalka; Sümegi, Pál

    2014-05-01

    Nowadays more and more environmental lobbyists believe that climate change must be demonstrated in a new form. The estimated temperature increase can be realized more easily, if the emphasis is on ecological effects of the predicted temperature. For this reason a bioclimatic classification method was used to analyse the projected changes for the Carpathian Basin region. We applied the Holdridge life zone system, which is relatively simple, so our results can be used to inform the population. Holdridge developed a geometric model for climate classification which declares the relationship between classes (life zones) and climate indices (mean annual biotemperature, average total annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration ratio). The necessary data for this study was derived from regional climate model (RCM) experiments of the ENSEMBLES project using the SRES A1B emission scenario. The temperature and precipitation data series were bias corrected for the selected RCM simulations. The target area of our investigations is the Carpathian Basin region. Life zones maps were created using the selected RCM simulations and their ensemble mean for the periods: 1961-1990 (T1), 2021-2050 (T2), 2061-2090 (T3). The spatial distribution of life zones and their temporal changes were investigated. According to our results the spatial pattern of life zones changes significantly from T1 to T3. It is possible that some types of life zones (e.g. boreal rain forest) will disappear; and some types (e.g. warm temperate thorn steppe) will appear in the target area. We determined those RCM simulations which predicted the maximum and minimum changes of the spatial pattern of life zones. Maps of T1 were compared to maps of T3 using Cohen's Kappa coefficient. Furthermore, relative extents, vertical distribution patterns and mean centres of life zones have been analysed. These parameters were defined for each decade and also for T1, T2 and T3. The temporal changes of the decadal values

  8. Climate variability and vadose zone controls on damping of transient recharge

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Corona, Claudia R.; Gurdak, Jason J.; Dickinson, Jesse; Ferré, T.P.A.; Maurer, Edwin P.

    2018-01-01

    Increasing demand on groundwater resources motivates understanding of the controls on recharge dynamics so model predictions under current and future climate may improve. Here we address questions about the nonlinear behavior of flux variability in the vadose zone that may explain previously reported teleconnections between global-scale climate variability and fluctuations in groundwater levels. We use hundreds of HYDRUS-1D simulations in a sensitivity analysis approach to evaluate the damping depth of transient recharge over a range of periodic boundary conditions and vadose zone geometries and hydraulic parameters that are representative of aquifer systems of the conterminous United States (U.S). Although the models were parameterized based on U.S. aquifers, findings from this study are applicable elsewhere that have mean recharge rates between 3.65 and 730 mm yr–1. We find that mean infiltration flux, period of time varying infiltration, and hydraulic conductivity are statistically significant predictors of damping depth. The resulting framework explains why some periodic infiltration fluxes associated with climate variability dampen with depth in the vadose zone, resulting in steady-state recharge, while other periodic surface fluxes do not dampen with depth, resulting in transient recharge. We find that transient recharge in response to the climate variability patterns could be detected at the depths of water levels in most U.S. aquifers. Our findings indicate that the damping behavior of transient infiltration fluxes is linear across soil layers for a range of texture combinations. The implications are that relatively simple, homogeneous models of the vadose zone may provide reasonable estimates of the damping depth of climate-varying transient recharge in some complex, layered vadose zone profiles.

  9. Human-water interactions in Myanmar's Dry Zone under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taft, Linda; Evers, Mariele

    2016-04-01

    Understanding human-water interactions is particularly essential in countries where the economy and the people's well-being and income strongly depend on the availability and quality of sufficient water resources. Such a strong dependency on water is existent in Myanmar's Dry Zone located in the central Ayeyarwady River basin. In this area, rainfall is associated with high heterogeneity across space and time. Precipitation amounts in the Dry Zone (500-1000 mm annually) are generally less compared to other regions in Myanmar (up to 4000-6000 mm). Following the Global Climate Risk Index, Myanmar is one of the countries which were most affected by extreme weather events between 1994 and 2013. Severe drought periods e.g in the years 1997-1998, 2010 and 2014 led to crop failures and water shortage in the Dry Zone, where more than 14 mio people predominantly practice agriculture. Due to the high variability of rainfalls, farming is only possible with irrigation, mainly conducted by canal systems from the rivers and groundwater withdrawal. Myanmar is recently facing big challenges which result from comprehensive political and economic reforms since 2011. These may also include increasing water use by new industrial zones and urbanization. However, not only policy and economy modify the need for water. Variability of river runoff and changes in seasonality are expected as a result of climate change. The overarching goal of the study is to understand and increase the knowledge on human-water-climate interactions and to elaborate possible future scenarios for Myanmar's Dry Zone. It is not well studied yet how current and future climate change and increasing human impact will influence the country's abundant water resources including groundwater. Therefore, the first step of this study is to identify the major drivers within the central Ayeyarwady River basin. We are in the process of collecting and analyzing data sets and information including hydrologic and eco

  10. Using MERRA, AMIP II, CMIP5 Outputs to Assess Actual and Potential Building Climate Zone Change and Variability From the Last 30 Years Through 2100

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stackhouse, P. W.; Westberg, D. J.; Hoell, J. M., Jr.; Chandler, W.; Zhang, T.

    2014-12-01

    In the US, residential and commercial building infrastructure combined consumes about 40% of total energy usage and emits about 39% of total CO2emission (DOE/EIA "Annual Energy Outlook 2013"). Thus, increasing the energy efficiency of buildings is paramount to reducing energy costs and emissions. Building codes, as used by local and state enforcement entities are typically tied to the dominant climate within an enforcement jurisdiction classified according to various climate zones. These climates zones are based upon a 30-year average of local surface observations and are developed by DOE and ASHRAE (formerly known as the American Society of Hearting, Refrigeration and Air-Conditioning Engineers). A significant shortcoming of the methodology used in constructing such maps is the use of surface observations (located mainly near airports) that are unequally distributed and frequently have periods of missing data that need to be filled by various approximation schemes. This paper demonstrates the usefulness of using NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) atmospheric data assimilation to derive the ASHRAE climate zone maps and then using MERRA to define the last 30 years of variability in climate zones. These results show that there is a statistically significant increase in the area covered by warmer climate zones and some tendency for a reduction of area in colder climate zones that require longer time series to confirm. Using the uncertainties of the basic surface temperature and precipitation parameters from MERRA as determined by comparison to surface measurements, we first compare patterns and variability of ASHRAE climate zones from MERRA relative to present day climate model runs from AMIP simulations to establish baseline sensitivity. Based upon these results, we assess the variability of the ASHRAE climate zones according to CMIP runs through 2100 using an ensemble analysis that classifies model output changes by

  11. Demand Shifting with Thermal Mass in Large Commercial Buildings in a California Hot Climate Zone

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Xu, Peng; Yin, Rongxin; Brown, Carrie

    2009-06-01

    The potential for using building thermal mass for load shifting and peak energy demand reduction has been demonstrated in a number of simulation, laboratory, and field studies. Previous Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory research has demonstrated that the approach is very effective in cool and moderately warm climate conditions (California Climate Zones 2-4). However, this method had not been tested in hotter climate zones. This project studied the potential of pre-cooling the building early in the morning and increasing temperature setpoints during peak hours to reduce cooling-related demand in two typical office buildings in hotter California climates ? one in Visaliamore » (CEC Climate Zone 13) and the other in San Bernardino (CEC Climate Zone 10). The conclusion of the work to date is that pre-cooling in hotter climates has similar potential to that seen previously in cool and moderate climates. All other factors being equal, results to date indicate that pre-cooling increases the depth (kW) and duration (kWh) of the possible demand shed of a given building. The effectiveness of night pre-cooling in typical office building under hot weather conditions is very limited. However, night pre-cooling is helpful for office buildings with an undersized HVAC system. Further work is required to duplicate the tests in other typical buildings and in other hot climate zones and prove that pre-cooling is truly effective.« less

  12. Ensembles-based predictions of climate change impacts on bioclimatic zones in Northeast Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Y.; Jeon, S. W.; Lim, C. H.; Ryu, J.

    2017-12-01

    Biodiversity is rapidly declining globally and efforts are needed to mitigate this continually increasing loss of species. Clustering of areas with similar habitats can be used to prioritize protected areas and distribute resources for the conservation of species, selection of representative sample areas for research, and evaluation of impacts due to environmental changes. In this study, Northeast Asia (NEA) was classified into 14 bioclimatic zones using statistical techniques, which are correlation analysis and principal component analysis (PCA), and the iterative self-organizing data analysis technique algorithm (ISODATA). Based on these bioclimatic classification, we predicted shift of bioclimatic zones due to climate change. The input variables include the current climatic data (1960-1990) and the future climatic data of the HadGEM2-AO model (RCP 4.5(2050, 2070) and 8.5(2050, 2070)) provided by WorldClim. Using these data, multi-modeling methods including maximum likelihood classification, random forest, and species distribution modelling have been used to project the impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones within NEA. The results of various models were compared and analyzed by overlapping each result. As the result, significant changes in bioclimatic conditions can be expected throughout the NEA by 2050s and 2070s. The overall zones moved upward and some zones were predicted to disappear. This analysis provides the basis for understanding potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem. Also, this could be used more effectively to support decision making on climate change adaptation.

  13. Predicting Plant-Accessible Water in the Critical Zone: Mountain Ecosystems in a Mediterranean Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klos, P. Z.; Goulden, M.; Riebe, C. S.; Tague, C.; O'Geen, A. T.; Flinchum, B. A.; Safeeq, M.; Conklin, M. H.; Hart, S. C.; Asefaw Berhe, A.; Hartsough, P. C.; Holbrook, S.; Bales, R. C.

    2017-12-01

    Enhanced understanding of subsurface water storage, and the below-ground architecture and processes that create it, will advance our ability to predict how the impacts of climate change - including drought, forest mortality, wildland fire, and strained water security - will take form in the decades to come. Previous research has examined the importance of plant-accessible water in soil, but in upland landscapes within Mediterranean climates the soil is often only the upper extent of subsurface water storage. We draw insights from both this previous research and a case study of the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory to: define attributes of subsurface storage, review observed patterns in its distribution, highlight nested methods for its estimation across scales, and showcase the fundamental processes controlling its formation. We observe that forest ecosystems at our sites subsist on lasting plant-accessible stores of subsurface water during the summer dry period and during multi-year droughts. This indicates that trees in these forest ecosystems are rooted deeply in the weathered, highly porous saprolite, which reaches up to 10-20 m beneath the surface. This confirms the importance of large volumes of subsurface water in supporting ecosystem resistance to climate and landscape change across a range of spatiotemporal scales. This research enhances the ability to predict the extent of deep subsurface storage across landscapes; aiding in the advancement of both critical zone science and the management of natural resources emanating from similar mountain ecosystems worldwide.

  14. Variations of soil microbial community structures beneath broadleaved forest trees in temperate and subtropical climate zones

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Yang, Sihang; Zhang, Yuguang; Cong, Jing

    Global warming has shifted climate zones poleward or upward. Furthermore, understanding the responses and mechanism of microbial community structure and functions relevant to natural climate zone succession is challenged by the high complexity of microbial communities. Here, we examined soil microbial community in three broadleaved forests located in the Wulu Mountain (WLM, temperate climate), Funiu Mountain (FNM, at the border of temperate and subtropical climate zones), or Shennongjia Mountain (SNJ, subtropical climate). Although plant species richness decreased with latitudes, the microbial taxonomic α-diversity increased with latitudes, concomitant with increases in soil total and available nitrogen and phosphorus contents. Phylogenetic NRImore » (Net Relatedness Index) values increased from 0.718 in temperate zone (WLM) to 1.042 in subtropical zone (SNJ), showing a shift from over dispersion to clustering likely caused by environmental filtering such as low pH and nutrients. Similarly, taxonomybased association networks of subtropical forest samples were larger and tighter, suggesting clustering. In contrast, functional α-diversity was similar among three forests, but functional gene networks of the FNM forest significantly (P < 0.050) differed from the others. A significant correlation (R = 0.616, P < 0.001) between taxonomic and functional β-diversity was observed only in the FNM forest, suggesting low functional redundancy at the border of climate zones. Using a strategy of space-fortime substitution, we predict that poleward climate range shift will lead to decreased microbial taxonomic α-diversities in broadleaved forest.« less

  15. Variations of soil microbial community structures beneath broadleaved forest trees in temperate and subtropical climate zones

    DOE PAGES

    Yang, Sihang; Zhang, Yuguang; Cong, Jing; ...

    2017-02-10

    Global warming has shifted climate zones poleward or upward. Furthermore, understanding the responses and mechanism of microbial community structure and functions relevant to natural climate zone succession is challenged by the high complexity of microbial communities. Here, we examined soil microbial community in three broadleaved forests located in the Wulu Mountain (WLM, temperate climate), Funiu Mountain (FNM, at the border of temperate and subtropical climate zones), or Shennongjia Mountain (SNJ, subtropical climate). Although plant species richness decreased with latitudes, the microbial taxonomic α-diversity increased with latitudes, concomitant with increases in soil total and available nitrogen and phosphorus contents. Phylogenetic NRImore » (Net Relatedness Index) values increased from 0.718 in temperate zone (WLM) to 1.042 in subtropical zone (SNJ), showing a shift from over dispersion to clustering likely caused by environmental filtering such as low pH and nutrients. Similarly, taxonomybased association networks of subtropical forest samples were larger and tighter, suggesting clustering. In contrast, functional α-diversity was similar among three forests, but functional gene networks of the FNM forest significantly (P < 0.050) differed from the others. A significant correlation (R = 0.616, P < 0.001) between taxonomic and functional β-diversity was observed only in the FNM forest, suggesting low functional redundancy at the border of climate zones. Using a strategy of space-fortime substitution, we predict that poleward climate range shift will lead to decreased microbial taxonomic α-diversities in broadleaved forest.« less

  16. Parametric Method to Define Area of Allowable Configurations while Changing Position of Restricted Zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pritykin, F. N.; Nefedov, D. I.; Rogoza, Yu A.; Zinchenko, Yu V.

    2018-03-01

    The article presents the findings related to the development of the module for automatic collision detection of the manipulator with restricted zones for virtual motion modeling. It proposes the parametric method for specifying the area of allowable joint configurations. The authors study the cases when restricted zones are specified using the horizontal plane or front-projection planes. The joint coordinate space is specified by rectangular axes in the direction of which the angles defining the displacements in turning pairs are laid off. The authors present the results of modeling which enabled to develop a parametric method for specifying a set of cross-sections defining the shape and position of allowable configurations in different positions of a restricted zone. All joint points that define allowable configurations refer to the indicated sections. The area of allowable configurations is specified analytically by using several kinematic surfaces that limit it. A geometric analysis is developed based on the use of the area of allowable configurations characterizing the position of the manipulator and reported restricted zones. The paper presents numerical calculations related to virtual simulation of the manipulator path performed by the mobile robot Varan when using the developed algorithm and restricted zones. The obtained analytical dependencies allow us to define the area of allowable configurations, which is a knowledge pool to ensure the intelligent control of the manipulator path in a predefined environment. The use of the obtained region to synthesize a joint trajectory makes it possible to correct the manipulator path to foresee and eliminate deadlocks when synthesizing motions along the velocity vector.

  17. Assessing local climate zones in arid cities: The case of Phoenix, Arizona and Las Vegas, Nevada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Chuyuan; Middel, Ariane; Myint, Soe W.; Kaplan, Shai; Brazel, Anthony J.; Lukasczyk, Jonas

    2018-07-01

    The local climate zone (LCZ) classification scheme is a standardization framework to describe the form and function of cities for urban heat island (UHI) studies. This study classifies and evaluates LCZs for two arid desert cities in the Southwestern United States - Phoenix and Las Vegas - following the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools (WUDAPT) method. Both cities are classified into seven built type LCZs and seven land-cover type LCZs at 100-m resolution using Google Earth, Saga GIS, and Landsat 8 scenes. Average surface cover properties (building fraction, impervious fraction, pervious fraction) and sky view factors of classified LCZs are then evaluated and compared to pre-defined LCZ representative ranges from the literature, and their implications on the surface UHI (SUHI) effect are explained. Results suggest that observed LCZ properties in arid desert environments do not always match the proposed value ranges from the literature, especially with regard to sky view factor (SVF) upper boundaries. Although the LCZ classification scheme was originally designed to describe local climates with respect to air temperature, our analysis shows that much can be learned from investigating land surface temperature (LST) in these zones. This study serves as a substantial new resource laying a foundation for assessing the SUHI in cities using the LCZ scheme, which could inform climate simulations at local and regional scales.

  18. Optimization for energy efficiency of underground building envelope thermal performance in different climate zones of China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, Luyang; Liu, Jing; Zhang, Huibo

    2017-11-01

    The object of this article is to investigate the influence of thermal performance of envelopes in shallow-buried buildings on energy consumption for different climate zones of China. For the purpose of this study, an effective building energy simulation tool (DeST) developed by Tsinghua University was chosen to model the heat transfer in underground buildings. Based on the simulative results, energy consumption for heating and cooling for the whole year was obtained. The results showed that the relationship between energy consumption and U-value of envelopes for underground buildings is different compared with above-ground buildings: improving thermal performance of exterior walls cannot reduce energy consumption, on the contrary, may result in more energy cost. Besides, it is can be derived that optimized U-values of underground building envelopes vary with climate zones of China in this study. For severe cold climate zone, the optimized U-value of underground building envelopes is 0.8W/(m2·K); for cold climate zone, the optimized U-value is 1.5W/(m2·K); for warm climate zone, the U-value is 2.0W/(m2·K).

  19. Edge-defined contact heater apparatus and method for floating zone crystal growth

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kou, Sindo (Inventor)

    1992-01-01

    An apparatus for growing a monocrystalline body (30) from a polycrystalline feed rod (22) includes a heater (20) that is positioned to heat a short section of the polycrystalline rod (22) to create a molten zone (34). The heater (20) is formed to include a shaper (40) that contacts the polycrystalline rod (22) in the molten zone (34) and has a hole (46) to allow flow in the molten zone (34) between the polycrystalline rod (22) side and the monocrystalline body (30) side of the shaper. The shaper (40) has an edge (42) that defines the boundary of the cross-section of the monocrystalline body (30) that is formed as the molten material solidifies.

  20. Indices of climate change in the Artic zone derived from radiosondes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Añel, J. A.; Gimeno, L.; de La Torre, L.; Nieto, R.; Tesouro, M.; Ribera, P.; García, R.; Hernández, E.

    2003-04-01

    The use of indices has been traditionally one of the main tools to identify climatic change. Here we present a study of the interannual variability of parameters derived from radiosonde data to study climate change in the artic zone. Trends, oscillations and the relationship with the principal climate variability mode for this region ( Northern Annular Mode) have been studied. We calculate the indices from the Upper Air Digital Files of the National Climatic Data Center (CARDS). We chose for our work the radiosonde data of stations over the studied region, with a temporal coverage of 27 years (1973-1998).

  1. A study of the impacts of climate change scenarios on the plant hardiness zones of Albania

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Maps of plant hardiness zones are useful tools for determining the extreme limits for the survival of plants. Exploration of projected climate change effects on hardiness zones can help identify areas most affected by climate change. Such studies are important in areas with high risks related to cli...

  2. Limited hydrologic response to Pleistocene climate change in deep vadose zones - Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Paces, J.B.; Neymark, L.A.; Whelan, J.F.; Wooden, J.L.; Lund, S.P.; Marshall, B.D.

    2010-01-01

    Understanding the movement of water through thick vadose zones, especially on time scales encompassing long-term climate change, is increasingly important as societies utilize semi-arid environments for both water resources and sites viewed as favorable for long-term disposal or storage of hazardous waste. Hydrologic responses to Pleistocene climate change within a deep vadose zone in the eastern Mojave Desert at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, were evaluated by uranium-series dating of finely layered hyalitic opal using secondary ion mass spectrometry. Opal is present within cm-thick secondary hydrogenic mineral crusts coating floors of lithophysal cavities in fractured volcanic rocks at depths of 200 to 300 m below land surface. Uranium concentrations in opal fluctuate systematically between 5 and 550 μg/g. Age-calibrated profiles of uranium concentration correlate with regional climate records over the last 300,000 years and produce time-series spectral peaks that have distinct periodicities of 100- and 41-ka, consistent with planetary orbital parameters. These results indicate that the chemical compositions of percolating solutions varied in response to near-surface, climate-driven processes. However, slow (micrometers per thousand years), relatively uniform growth rates of secondary opal and calcite deposition spanning several glacial–interglacial climate cycles imply that water fluxes in the deep vadose zone remained low and generally buffered from the large fluctuations in available surface moisture during different climates.

  3. Unravelling Diurnal Asymmetry of Surface Temperature in Different Climate Zones.

    PubMed

    Vinnarasi, R; Dhanya, C T; Chakravorty, Aniket; AghaKouchak, Amir

    2017-08-04

    Understanding the evolution of Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR), which has contradicting global and regional trends, is crucial because it influences environmental and human health. Here, we analyse the regional evolution of DTR trend over different climatic zones in India using a non-stationary approach known as the Multidimensional Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (MEEMD) method, to explore the generalized influence of regional climate on DTR, if any. We report a 0.36 °C increase in overall mean of DTR till 1980, however, the rate has declined since then. Further, arid deserts and warm-temperate grasslands exhibit negative DTR trends, while the west coast and sub-tropical forest in the north-east show positive trends. This transition predominantly begins with a 0.5 °C increase from the west coast and spreads with an increase of 0.25 °C per decade. These changes are more pronounced during winter and post-monsoon, especially in the arid desert and warm-temperate grasslands, the DTR decreased up to 2 °C, where the rate of increase in minimum temperature is higher than the maximum temperature. We conclude that both maximum and minimum temperature increase in response to the global climate change, however, their rates of increase are highly local and depend on the underlying climatic zone.

  4. Integration of climatic indices in an objective probabilistic model for establishing and mapping viticultural climatic zones in a region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moral, Francisco J.; Rebollo, Francisco J.; Paniagua, Luis L.; García, Abelardo; Honorio, Fulgencio

    2016-05-01

    Different climatic indices have been proposed to determine the wine suitability in a region. Some of them are related to the air temperature, but the hydric component of climate should also be considered which, in turn, is influenced by the precipitation during the different stages of the grapevine growing and ripening periods. In this study, we propose using the information obtained from ten climatic indices [heliothermal index (HI), cool night index (CI), dryness index (DI), growing season temperature (GST), the Winkler index (WI), September mean thermal amplitude (MTA), annual precipitation (AP), precipitation during flowering (PDF), precipitation before flowering (PBF), and summer precipitation (SP)] as inputs in an objective and probabilistic model, the Rasch model, with the aim of integrating the individual effects of them, obtaining the climate data that summarize all main climatic indices, which could influence on wine suitability from a climate viewpoint, and utilizing the Rasch measures to generate homogeneous climatic zones. The use of the Rasch model to estimate viticultural climatic suitability constitutes a new application of great practical importance, enabling to rationally determine locations in a region where high viticultural potential exists and establishing a ranking of the climatic indices which exerts an important influence on wine suitability in a region. Furthermore, from the measures of viticultural climatic suitability at some locations, estimates can be computed using a geostatistical algorithm, and these estimates can be utilized to map viticultural climatic zones in a region. To illustrate the process, an application to Extremadura, southwestern Spain, is shown.

  5. Teaching climate science within the transdisciplinary framework of Critical Zone science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, T. S.; Wymore, A.; Dere, A. L. D.; Washburne, J. C.; Hoffman, A.; Conklin, M. H.

    2017-12-01

    During the past decade a new realm of Earth surface and environmental science has evolved, Critical Zone (CZ) science. The CZ is the outermost layer of the continents spanning from the top of the vegetation canopy down to the bottom of the fresh groundwater zone. CZ science integrates across many disciplines and cross cutting concepts, including climate science, and much progress has been made by the CZ community to develop educational curricula - descriptions of the climate science aspects of two of those follows. An interdisciplinary team of CZ scientists developed an undergraduate course entitled "Introduction to CZ science". The semester-long course is modular, has been tested in multiple university settings, and the content is available online. A primary tenet of the course is that to achieve environmental sustainability, society must understand the CZ system, the natural processes and services of the CZ that are of value to society, and how those processes operate with and without the presence of humanity. A fundamental concept in the course is that the fluxes of water, C, energy, reactive gases, particulates and nutrients throughout the CZ are directly and indirectly related to climatic phenomenon and processes. Units on land-atmosphere interactions, weathering, and water budgets highlight the connection between CZ science and climate science, and are augmented by learning activities that consider climate links to soil development and landscape evolution. An online open-source course entitled "Earth 530: Earth Surface Processes in the Critical Zone'" is offered as part of The Pennsylvania State University's Masters of Education in Earth Sciences program. The course is designed to educate teachers interested in incorporating CZ science into their classrooms, though it is usable by anyone with a basic understanding of Earth surface and environmental science. Earth 530 introduces students to knowledge needed to understand the CZ through integration of

  6. Seroprevalence of Capripoxvirus infection in sheep and goats among different agro-climatic zones of Odisha, India

    PubMed Central

    Hota, Abhishek; Biswal, Sangram; Sahoo, Niranjana; Venkatesan, Gnanavel; Arya, Sargam; Kumar, Amit; Ramakrishnan, Muthannan Andavar; Pandey, Awadh Bihari; Rout, Manoranjan

    2018-01-01

    Aim: The study was undertaken to assess the prevalence of antibodies to Capripoxviruses among small ruminants of Odisha, India. Materials and Methods: A total of 500 random serum samples collected from 214 sheep and 286 goats across 10 agro-climatic zones of Odisha, were screened using whole virus antigen-based indirect ELISA for antibodies against Capripoxviruses. Results were analyzed by suitable statistical methods. Results: Screening of 500 serum samples showed seropositivity of 8.88% and 31.47% in sheep and goats, respectively, for Capripoxviruses. The prevalence rate according to agro-climatic zone ranged from 0% (North Eastern coastal plain zone) to 48.57% (North central plateau zone) for goat pox, and 0% (Western undulating zone and North central plateau) to 22.22% (South Eastern ghat zone) for sheep pox. The difference in prevalence rates among the various agro-climatic zones was statistically significant (p<0.05) for goats, but not for sheep. Antibody prevalence rates among various districts were recorded to be the highest in Jagatsinghpur (30%) for sheep pox and Dhenkanal (80%) for goat pox. Conclusions: The study revealed serological evidence of Capripoxvirus infection in sheep and goat populations in the study area, in the absence of vaccination. Systematic investigation, monitoring, and reporting of outbreaks are necessary to devise control strategies. PMID:29479159

  7. Urban local climate zone mapping and apply in urban environment study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Shan; Zhang, Yunwei; Zhang, Jili

    2018-02-01

    The city’s local climate zone (LCZ) was considered to be a powerful tool for urban climate mapping. But for cities in different countries and regions, the LCZ division methods and results were different, thus targeted researches should be performed. In the current work, a LCZ mapping method was proposed, which is convenient in operation and city planning oriented. In this proposed method, the local climate zoning types were adjusted firstly, according to the characteristics of Chinese city, that more tall buildings and high density. Then the classification method proposed by WUDAPT based on remote sensing data was performed on Xi’an city, as an example, for LCZ mapping. Combined with the city road network, a reasonable expression of the dividing results was provided, to adapt to the characteristics in city planning that land parcels are usually recognized as the basic unit. The proposed method was validated against the actual land use and construction data that surveyed in Xi’an, with results indicating the feasibility of the proposed method for urban LCZ mapping in China.

  8. Urban field classification by "local climate zones" in a medium-sized Central European city: the case of Olomouc (Czech Republic)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehnert, Michal; Geletič, Jan; Husák, Jan; Vysoudil, Miroslav

    2015-11-01

    The stations of the Metropolitan Station Network in Olomouc (Czech Republic) were assigned to local climatic zones, and the temperature characteristics of the stations were compared. The classification of local climatic zones represents an up-to-date concept for the unification of the characterization of the neighborhoods of climate research sites. This study is one of the first to provide a classification of existing stations within local climate zones. Using a combination of GIS-based analyses and field research, the values of geometric and surface cover properties were calculated, and the stations were subsequently classified into the local climate zones. It turned out that the classification of local climatic zones can be efficiently used for representative documentation of the neighborhood of the climate stations. To achieve a full standardization of the description of the neighborhood of a station, the classification procedures, including the methods used for the processing of spatial data and methods used for the indication of specific local characteristics, must be also standardized. Although the main patterns of temperature differences between the stations with a compact rise, those with an open rise and the stations with no rise or sparsely built areas were evident; the air temperature also showed considerable differences within particular zones. These differences were largely caused by various geometric layout of development and by unstandardized placement of the stations. For the direct comparison of temperatures between zones, particularly those stations which have been placed in such a way that they are as representative as possible for the zone in question should be used in further research.

  9. Northward shift of the agricultural climate zone under 21st-century global climate change.

    PubMed

    King, Myron; Altdorff, Daniel; Li, Pengfei; Galagedara, Lakshman; Holden, Joseph; Unc, Adrian

    2018-05-21

    As agricultural regions are threatened by climate change, warming of high latitude regions and increasing food demands may lead to northward expansion of global agriculture. While socio-economic demands and edaphic conditions may govern the expansion, climate is a key limiting factor. Extant literature on future crop projections considers established agricultural regions and is mainly temperature based. We employed growing degree days (GDD), as the physiological link between temperature and crop growth, to assess the global northward shift of agricultural climate zones under 21 st -century climate change. Using ClimGen scenarios for seven global climate models (GCMs), based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and transient GHGs, we delineated the future extent of GDD areas, feasible for small cereals, and assessed the projected changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. By 2099, roughly 76% (55% to 89%) of the boreal region might reach crop feasible GDD conditions, compared to the current 32%. The leading edge of the feasible GDD will shift northwards up to 1200 km by 2099 while the altitudinal shift remains marginal. However, most of the newly gained areas are associated with highly seasonal and monthly variations in climatic water balances, a critical component of any future land-use and management decisions.

  10. Assessment of climate change in Algeria from 1951 to 2098 using the Köppen-Geiger climate classification scheme

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeroual, Ayoub; Assani, Ali A.; Meddi, Mohamed; Alkama, Ramdane

    2018-02-01

    Significant changes in regional climates have been observed at the end of the twentieth century, taking place at unprecedented rates. These changes, in turn, lead to changes in global climate zones with pace and amplitude varying from one region to another. Algeria, a country characterized by climate conditions ranging from relatively wet to very dry (desert-like), has also experienced changes in its climate regions, notably in the country's wet region, which represents about 7% of its total surface area, but is home to 75% of its population. In this study, the pace of climate zone changes as it is defined by Koppen-Geiger was analyzed for the period from 1951 to 2098 using climate data from observation and regional climate simulations over Algeria. The ability of the CORDEX-Africa regional climate models simulations to reproduce the current observed climate zones and their shifts was first assessed. Future changes over the whole of the twenty-first century were then estimated based on two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Analysis of the shift rate of climate zones from 1951 to 2005 found a gradual but significant expansion of the surface area of the desert zone at an approximate rate of 650 ± 160 km2/year along with the abrupt shrinking, by approximately 30%, at a rate of 1086 ± 270 km2/year, of the warm temperate climate zone surface area. According to projections for the RCP8.5 scenario, the rate of expansion of desert climate will increase in the future (twenty-first century), particularly during the period from 2045 to 2098.

  11. Quantifying Hydro-biogeochemical Model Sensitivity in Assessment of Climate Change Effect on Hyporheic Zone Processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, X.; Chen, X.; Dai, H.; Hammond, G. E.; Song, H. S.; Stegen, J.

    2016-12-01

    The hyporheic zone is an active region for biogeochemical processes such as carbon and nitrogen cycling, where the groundwater and surface water mix and interact with each other with distinct biogeochemical and thermal properties. The biogeochemical dynamics within the hyporheic zone are driven by both river water and groundwater hydraulic dynamics, which are directly affected by climate change scenarios. Besides that, the hydraulic and thermal properties of local sediments and microbial and chemical processes also play important roles in biogeochemical dynamics. Thus for a comprehensive understanding of the biogeochemical processes in the hyporheic zone, a coupled thermo-hydro-biogeochemical model is needed. As multiple uncertainty sources are involved in the integrated model, it is important to identify its key modules/parameters through sensitivity analysis. In this study, we develop a 2D cross-section model in the hyporheic zone at the DOE Hanford site adjacent to Columbia River and use this model to quantify module and parametric sensitivity on assessment of climate change. To achieve this purpose, We 1) develop a facies-based groundwater flow and heat transfer model that incorporates facies geometry and heterogeneity characterized from a field data set, 2) derive multiple reaction networks/pathways from batch experiments with in-situ samples and integrate temperate dependent reactive transport modules to the flow model, 3) assign multiple climate change scenarios to the coupled model by analyzing historical river stage data, 4) apply a variance-based global sensitivity analysis to quantify scenario/module/parameter uncertainty in hierarchy level. The objectives of the research include: 1) identifing the key control factors of the coupled thermo-hydro-biogeochemical model in the assessment of climate change, and 2) quantify the carbon consumption in different climate change scenarios in the hyporheic zone.

  12. Attribution of local climate zones using a multitemporal land use/land cover classification scheme

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wicki, Andreas; Parlow, Eberhard

    2017-04-01

    Worldwide, the number of people living in an urban environment exceeds the rural population with increasing tendency. Especially in relation to global climate change, cities play a major role considering the impacts of extreme heat waves on the population. For urban planners, it is important to know which types of urban structures are beneficial for a comfortable urban climate and which actions can be taken to improve urban climate conditions. Therefore, it is essential to differ between not only urban and rural environments, but also between different levels of urban densification. To compare these built-up types within different cities worldwide, Stewart and Oke developed the concept of local climate zones (LCZ) defined by morphological characteristics. The original LCZ scheme often has considerable problems when adapted to European cities with historical city centers, including narrow streets and irregular patterns. In this study, a method to bridge the gap between a classical land use/land cover (LULC) classification and the LCZ scheme is presented. Multitemporal Landsat 8 data are used to create a high accuracy LULC map, which is linked to the LCZ by morphological parameters derived from a high-resolution digital surface model and cadastral data. A bijective combination of the different classification schemes could not be achieved completely due to overlapping threshold values and the spatially homogeneous distribution of morphological parameters, but the attribution of LCZ to the LULC classification was successful.

  13. Habitable zones around main sequence stars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kasting, James F.; Whitmire, Daniel P.; Reynolds, Ray T.

    1993-01-01

    A mechanism for stabilizing climate on the earth and other earthlike planets is described, and the physical processes that define the inner and outer boundaries of the habitable zone (HZ) around the sun and main sequence stars are discussed. Physical constraints on the HZ obtained from Venus and Mars are taken into account. A 1D climate model is used to estimate the width of the HZ and the continuously habitable zone around the sun, and the analysis is extended to other main sequence stars. Whether other stars have planets and where such planets might be located with respect to the HZ is addressed. The implications of the findings for NASA's SETI project are considered.

  14. Climate change and temperate zone insects: the tyranny of thermodynamics meets the world of limited resources.

    PubMed

    Adamo, Shelley A; Baker, Jillian L; Lovett, Maggie M E; Wilson, Graham

    2012-12-01

    Climate change will result in warmer temperatures and an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. Given that higher temperatures increase the reproductive rate of temperate zone insects, insect population growth rates are predicted to increase in the temperate zone in response to climate. This consensus, however, rests on the assumption that food is freely available. However, under conditions of limited food, the reproductive output of the Texan cricket Gryllus texensis (Cade and Otte) was highest at its current normal average temperature and declined with increasing temperature. Moreover, low food availability decreased survival during a simulated heat wave. Therefore, the effects of climate change on this species, and possibly on many others, are likely to hinge on food availability. Extrapolation from our data suggests that G. texensis will show larger yearly fluctuations in population size as climate change continues, and this will also have ecological repercussions. Only those temperate zone insects with a ready supply of food (e.g., agricultural pests) are likely to experience the predicted increase in population growth in response to climate change; food-limited species are likely to experience a population decline.

  15. Water runoff vs modern climatic warming in mountainous cryolithic zone in North-East Russia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glotov, V. E.; Glotova, L. P.

    2018-01-01

    The article presents the results of studying the effects of current climatic warming for both surface and subsurface water runoffs in North-East Russia, where the Main Watershed of the Earth separates it into the Arctic and Pacific continental slopes. The process of climatic warming is testified by continuous weather records during 80-100 years and longer periods. Over the Arctic slope and in the northern areas of the Pacific slope, climatic warming results in a decline in a total runoff of rivers whereas the ground-water recharge becomes greater in winter low-level conditions. In the southern Pacific slope and in the Sea of Okhotsk basin, the effect of climatic warming is an overall increase in total runoff including its subsurface constituents. We believe these peculiar characters of river runoff there to be related to the cryolithic zone environments. Over the Arctic slope and the northern Pacific slope, where cryolithic zone is continuous, the total runoff has its subsurface constituent as basically resulting from discharge of ground waters hosted in seasonally thawing rocks. Warmer climatic conditions favor growth of vegetation that needs more water for the processes of evapotranspiration and evaporation from rocky surfaces in summer seasons. In the Sea of Okhotsk basin, where the cryolithic zone is discontinuous, not only ground waters in seasonally thawing layers, but also continuous taliks and subpermafrost waters participate in processes of river recharges. As a result, a greater biological productivity of vegetation cover does not have any effect on ground-water supply and river recharge processes. If a steady climate warming is provided, a continuous cryolithic zone can presumably degrade into a discontinuous and then into an island-type permafrost layer. Under such a scenario, there will be a general increase in the total runoff and its subsurface constituent. From geoecological viewpoints, a greater runoff will have quite positive effects, whereas some

  16. Changes of the transitional climate zone in East Asia: past and future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Lin; Chen, Wen; Huang, Gang; Zeng, Gang

    2017-08-01

    The transitional climate zone (TCZ) between humid and arid regions in East Asia is characterized by sharp climate and biome gradients, interaction between the East Asian summer monsoon and the mid-latitude westerly winds and mixed agriculture-pasture activities. Consequently, it is highly vulnerable to natural disturbances and particularly human-driven global change. This study aims to illuminate the spatial and temporal variation of TCZ across both the retrospective and the prospective periods. In the historical period, both the front and rear edges of TCZ exhibit wide year-to-year excursions and have experienced coastward migration with increasing aridity throughout TCZ. Furthermore, precipitation fluctuation mainly contributes to interannual variability of TCZ whereas potential evaporation behavior dominates the long-term trends of TCZ. Models are capable of largely reproducing the shape and orientation of TCZ, although northwestward bias is apparent. In global warming scenario period, there will be continuing southeastward displacement for the front edge but the opposite northwestward movement is projected for the rear one, as a consequence of significant drying trends in the humid zone together with regime shifts towards humid conditions in the arid zone. Despite expanded TCZ sector, however, the available water resources inside it suffer little magnitude changes without preferential tendency towards either drier or wetter conditions, implying neither deleterious nor beneficial effects on the TCZ environment. Moreover, interannual variability of TCZ is expected to become stronger, resulting in more frequent occurrences of extreme swings. Finally, it is noted that uncertainty arising from climate models dominates in the TCZ than dispersed emission scenarios, in contrast to the situation in humid and arid zones.

  17. Growth gains from selective breeding in a spruce hybrid zone do not compromise local adaptation to climate.

    PubMed

    MacLachlan, Ian R; Yeaman, Sam; Aitken, Sally N

    2018-02-01

    Hybrid zones contain extensive standing genetic variation that facilitates rapid responses to selection. The Picea glauca  ×  Picea engelmannii hybrid zone in western Canada is the focus of tree breeding programs that annually produce ~90 million reforestation seedlings. Understanding the direct and indirect effects of selective breeding on adaptive variation is necessary to implement assisted gene flow (AGF) polices in Alberta and British Columbia that match these seedlings with future climates. We decomposed relationships among hybrid ancestry, adaptive traits, and climate to understand the implications of selective breeding for climate adaptations and AGF strategies. The effects of selection on associations among hybrid index estimated from ~6,500 SNPs, adaptive traits, and provenance climates were assessed for ~2,400 common garden seedlings. Hybrid index differences between natural and selected seedlings within breeding zones were small in Alberta (average +2%), but larger and more variable in BC (average -7%, range -24% to +1%), slightly favoring P. glauca ancestry. The average height growth gain of selected seedlings over natural seedlings within breeding zones was 36% (range 12%-86%). Clines in growth with temperature-related variables were strong, but differed little between selected and natural populations. Seedling hybrid index and growth trait associations with evapotranspiration-related climate variables were stronger in selected than in natural seedlings, indicating possible preadaptation to drier future climates. Associations among cold hardiness, hybrid ancestry, and cold-related climate variables dominated signals of local adaptation and were preserved in breeding populations. Strong hybrid ancestry-phenotype-climate associations suggest that AGF will be necessary to match interior spruce breeding populations with shifting future climates. The absence of antagonistic selection responses among traits and maintenance of cold adaptation in

  18. Local Climate Zones Classification to Urban Planning in the Mega City of São Paulo - SP, Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonçalves Santos, Rafael; Saraiva Lopes, António Manuel; Prata-Shimomura, Alessandra

    2017-04-01

    Local Climate Zones Classification to Urban Planning in the Mega city of São Paulo - SP, Brazil Tropical megacities have presented a strong trend in growing urban. Urban management in megacities has as one of the biggest challenges is the lack of integration of urban climate and urban planning to promote ecologically smart cities. Local Climatic Zones (LCZs) are considered as important and recognized tool for urban climate management. Classes are local in scale, climatic in nature, and zonal in representation. They can be understood as regions of uniform surface cover, structure, material and human activity that have to a unique climate response. As an initial tool to promote urban climate planning, LCZs represent a simple composition of different land coverages (buildings, vegetation, soils, rock, roads and water). LCZs are divided in 17 classes, they are based on surface cover (built fraction, soil moisture, albedo), surface structure (sky view factor, roughness height) and cultural activity (anthropogenic heat flux). The aim of this study is the application of the LCZs classification system in the megacity of São Paulo, Brazil. Located at a latitude of 23° 21' and longitude 46° 44' near to the Tropic of Capricorn, presenting humid subtropical climate (Cfa) with diversified topographies. The megacity of São Paulo currently concentrates 11.890.000 inhabitants is characterized by large urban conglomerates with impermeable surfaces and high verticalization, having as result high urban heat island intensity. The result indicates predominance in urban zones of Compact low-rise, Compact Mid-rise, Compact High-rise and Open Low-rise. Non-urban regions are mainly covered by dense vegetation and water. The LCZs classification system promotes significant advantages for climate sensitive urban planning in the megacity of São Paulo. They offers new perspectives to the management of temperature and urban ventilation and allows the formulation of urban planning

  19. Vadose zone controls on damping of climate-induced transient recharge fluxes in U.S. agroecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gurdak, Jason

    2017-04-01

    Understanding the physical processes in the vadose zone that link climate variability with transient recharge fluxes has particular relevance for the sustainability of groundwater-supported irrigated agriculture and other groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Natural climate variability on interannual to multidecadal timescales has well-documented influence on precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, infiltration flux, and can augment or diminish human stresses on water resources. Here the behavior and damping depth of climate-induced transient water flux in the vadose zone is explored. The damping depth is the depth in the vadose zone that the flux variation damps to 5% of the land surface variation. Steady-state recharge occurs when the damping depth is above the water table, and transient recharge occurs when the damping depth is below the water table. Findings are presented from major agroecosystems of the United States (U.S.), including the High Plains, Central Valley, California Coastal Basin, and Mississippi Embayment aquifer systems. Singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is used to identify quasi-periodic signals in precipitation and groundwater time series that are coincident with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) (6-12 mo cycle), Pacific/North American oscillation (PNA) (<1-4 yr cycle), El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (2-7 yr cycle), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (3-6 yr cycle), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (15-30 yr cycle), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (50-70 yr cycle). SSA results indicate that nearly all of the quasi-periodic signals in the precipitation and groundwater levels have a statistically significant lag correlation (95% confidence interval) with the AO, PNA, ENSO, NAO, PDO, and AMO indices. Results from HYDRUS-1D simulations indicate that transient water flux through the vadose zone are controlled by highly nonlinear interactions between mean infiltration flux and infiltration period related to the modes of climate

  20. Dynamic Agroecological Zones for the Inland Pacific Northwest, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huggins, D. R.; Rupp, R.; Gessler, P.; Pan, W.; Brown, D. J.; Machado, S.; Walden, V. P.; Eigenbrode, S.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

    2011-12-01

    Agroecological zones (AEZ's) have traditionally been defined by integrating multiple layers of biophysical (e.g. climate, soil, terrain) and occasionally socioeconomic data to create unique zones with specific ranges of land use constraints and potentials. Our approach to defining AEZ's assumes that current agricultural land uses have emerged as a consequence of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers. Therefore, we explore the concept that AEZ's can be derived from classifying the geographic distribution of current agricultural systems (e.g. the wheat-fallow cropping system zone) based on spatially geo-referenced annual cropland use data that is currently available through the National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS). By defining AEZ's in this way, we expect to: (1) provide baseline information that geographically delineates the boundaries of current AEZ's and subzones and therefore the capacity to evaluate shifts in AEZ boundaries over time; (2) assess the biophysical (e.g. climate, soils, terrain) and socioeconomic factors (e.g. commodity prices) that are most useful for predicting and correctly classifying current AEZ's, subzones or future shifts in AEZ boundaries; (3) identify and develop AEZ-relevant climate mitigation and adaptation strategies; and (4) integrate biophysical and socioeconomic data sources to pursue a transdisciplinary examination of climate-driven AEZ futures. Achieving these goals will aid in realizing major objectives for a USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Agriculture and Food Research Initiative, Cooperative Agricultural Project entitled "Regional Approaches to Climate Change (REACCH) for Pacific Northwest Agriculture". REACCH is a research, education and extension project under the leadership of the University of Idaho with significant collaboration from Washington State University, Oregon State University and the USDA Agricultural Research Service that is working towards increasing the capacity of Inland Pacific

  1. 32 CFR Appendix A to Part 110 - Climatic Zones Used To Determine Rates of Commutation Allowance

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... Virginia 42. Wisconsin 43. Wyoming The climate zones listed above are to be used as a guide to determine... commanders may request a zone change by submitting evidence to the Major Command of the appropriate Military...

  2. 32 CFR Appendix A to Part 110 - Climatic Zones Used To Determine Rates of Commutation Allowance

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... Virginia 42. Wisconsin 43. Wyoming The climate zones listed above are to be used as a guide to determine... commanders may request a zone change by submitting evidence to the Major Command of the appropriate Military...

  3. 32 CFR Appendix A to Part 110 - Climatic Zones Used To Determine Rates of Commutation Allowance

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... Virginia 42. Wisconsin 43. Wyoming The climate zones listed above are to be used as a guide to determine... commanders may request a zone change by submitting evidence to the Major Command of the appropriate Military...

  4. 32 CFR Appendix A to Part 110 - Climatic Zones Used To Determine Rates of Commutation Allowance

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... Virginia 42. Wisconsin 43. Wyoming The climate zones listed above are to be used as a guide to determine... commanders may request a zone change by submitting evidence to the Major Command of the appropriate Military...

  5. How soil water storage moderates climate changes effects on transpiration, across the different climates of the Critical Zone Observatories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heckman, C.; Tague, C.

    2017-12-01

    While the demand side of transpiration is predicted to increase under a warmer climate, actual evapotranspiration (AET) will be moderated by the supply of water available to vegetation. A key question to ask is how will plant accessible water storage capacity (PAWSC) affect the partitioning of precipitation between AET and runoff. Our results indicate that whether AET increases or decreases, and how much, is significantly based upon interactions between PAWSC and characteristics of precipitation such as the amount, frequency, and skew as well the partitioning between rain and snow. In snow dominated climates, if PAWSC cannot make up for the loss of storage as snowpack then AET could decrease, and in rain dominated climates, PAWSC could significantly limit the increase in AET. These results highlight the importance of critical zone research: constraining PAWSC is critical in predicting not only the magnitude but also the direction of the change in AET with climate warming. Due to the highly heterogeneous nature of PAWSC and the difficulty of measuring it across large scales, we use a well-tested hydrologic model to estimate the impacts from a range of PAWSC on the partitioning of precipitation between runoff and AET. We completed this analysis for the range of precipitation and vegetation characteristics found across 9 of the Critical Zone Observatories.

  6. Climate warming and the carbon cycle in the permafrost zone of the former Soviet Union

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kolchugina, T.P.; Vinson, T.S.

    1993-01-01

    The continuous permafrost zone of the former Soviet Union occupies 5% of the land surface area of the earth and stores a significant amount of carbon. Climate warming could disrupt the balance between carbon (C) accumulation and decomposition processes within the permafrost zone. Increased temperatures may accelerate the rate of organic matter decomposition. At the same time, the productivity of vegetation may increase in response to warming. To assess the future carbon cycle within the permafrost zone under a climate-warming scenario, it is necessary to quantify present carbon pools and fluxes. The present carbon cycle was assessed on the basismore » of an ecosystem/ecoregion approach. Under the present climate, the phytomass carbon pool was estimated at 17.0 Giga tons. The mortmass (coarse woody debris) carbon pool was estimated at 16.1 Giga tons. The soil carbon pool, including peatlands, was 139.4 Giga tons. The present rate of carbon turnover was 1.6 Giga tons/yr. (Copyright (c) 1993 by John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.)« less

  7. Rainfall variability and drought characteristics in two agro-climatic zones: An assessment of climate change challenges in Africa.

    PubMed

    Ayanlade, Ayansina; Radeny, Maren; Morton, John F; Muchaba, Tabitha

    2018-07-15

    This paper examines drought characteristics as an evidence of climate change in two agro-climatic zones of Nigeria and farmers' climate change perceptions of impacts and adaptation strategies. The results show high spatial and temporal rainfall variability for the stations. Consequently, there are several anomalies in rainfall in recent years but much more in the locations around the Guinea savanna. The inter-station and seasonality statistics reveal less variable and wetter early growing seasons and late growing seasons in the Rainforest zone, and more variable and drier growing seasons in other stations. The probability (p) of dry spells exceeding 3, 5 and 10 consecutive days is very high with 0.62≤p≥0.8 in all the stations, though, the p-values for 10day spells drop below 0.6 in Ibadan and Osogbo. The results further show that rainfall is much more reliable from the month of May until July with the coefficient of variance for rainy days <0.30, but less reliable in the months of March, August and October (CV-RD>0.30), though CV-RD appears higher in the month of August for all the stations. It is apparent that farmers' perceptions of drought fundamentally mirror climatic patterns from historical weather data. The study concludes that the adaptation facilities and equipment, hybrids of crops and animals are to be provided to farmers, at a subsidized price by the government, for them to cope with the current condition of climate change. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Effects of Atlantic warm pool variability over climate of South America tropical transition zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ricaurte Villota, Constanza; Romero-Rodríguez, Deisy; Andrés Ordoñez-Zuñiga, Silvio; Murcia-Riaño, Magnolia; Coca-Domínguez, Oswaldo

    2016-04-01

    Colombia is located in the northwestern corner of South America in a climatically complex region due to the influence processes modulators of climate both the Pacific and Atlantic region, becoming in a transition zone between phenomena of northern and southern hemisphere. Variations in the climatic conditions of this region, especially rainfall, have been attributed to the influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but little is known about the interaction within Atlantic Ocean and specifically Caribbean Sea with the environmental conditions of this region. In this work We studied the influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) on the Colombian Caribbean (CC) climate using data of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) between 1900 - 2014 from ERSST V4, compared with in situ data SIMAC (National System for Coral Reef Monitoring in Colombia - INVEMAR), rainfall between 1953-2013 of meteorological stations located at main airports in the Colombian Caribbean zone, administered by IDEAM, and winds data between 2003 - 2014 from WindSat sensor. The parameters analyzed showed spatial differences throughout the study area. SST anomalies, representing the variability of the AWP, showed to be associated with Multidecadal Atlantic Oscillation (AMO) and with the index of sea surface temperature of the North-tropical Atlantic (NTA), the variations was on 3 to 5 years on the ENSO scale and of approximately 11 years possibly related to solar cycles. Rainfall anomalies in the central and northern CC respond to changes in SST, while in the south zone these are not fully engage and show a high relationship with the ENSO. Finally, the winds also respond to changes in SST and showed a signal approximately 90 days possibly related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, whose intensity depends on the CC region being analyzed. The results confirm that region is a transition zone in which operate several forcing, the variability of climate conditions is difficult to attribute only one, as ENSO

  9. Groundwater-surface water interactions in the hyporheic zone under climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Shangbo; Yuan, Xingzhong; Peng, Shuchan; Yue, Junsheng; Wang, Xiaofeng; Liu, Hong; Williams, D Dudley

    2014-12-01

    Slight changes in climate, such as the rise of temperature or alterations of precipitation and evaporation, will dramatically influence nearly all freshwater and climate-related hydrological behavior on a global scale. The hyporheic zone (HZ), where groundwater (GW) and surface waters (SW) interact, is characterized by permeable sediments, low flow velocities, and gradients of physical, chemical, and biological characteristics along the exchange flows. Hyporheic metabolism, that is biogeochemical reactions within the HZ as well as various processes that exchange substances and energy with adjoining systems, is correlated with hyporheic organisms, habitats, and the organic matter (OM) supplied from GW and SW, which will inevitably be influenced by climate-related variations. The characteristics of the HZ in acting as a transition zone and in filtering and purifying exchanged water will be lost, resulting in a weakening of the self-purification capacity of natural water bodies. Thus, as human disturbances intensify in the future, GW and SW pollution will become a greater challenge for mankind than ever before. Biogeochemical processes in the HZ may favor the release of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), and methane (CH4) under climate change scenarios. Future water resource management should consider the integrity of aquatic systems as a whole, including the HZ, rather than independently focusing on SW and GW.

  10. Temporal Variation of NDVI and the Drivers of Climate Variables in the Arctic Tundra Transition Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, J.; Ryu, Y.; Lee, Y. K.

    2016-12-01

    The Arctic is a sensitive region to temperature, which is drastically increasing with climate change. Vegetation in transition zones of the sub-arctic tundra biome are most sensitive to the warming climate, as temperature in the Arctic ecosystem is one of important limiting factors of vegetation growth and decomposition. Previous research in the transition zone show that there is a difference of sensible heat flux (21 Wm-2), Leaf Area Index increase from 0.58 - 2.76 and canopy height from 0.1 - 6.1m across dwarf and tall shrubs to forest, however, we lack understanding of NDVI trend of this zone. To better understand the vegetation in transition zones of the arctic ecosystem, we analyze the long-term trend of NDVI (AVHRR 3g GIMMs data), temperature and precipitation (Climate Research Unit data) trend from 1982 - 2010 in Council, Alaska that is a region where arctic tundra is transitioning to boreal forest. We also analyze how the climatic factors, temperature or precipitation, affect NDVI. Annual precipitation had the highest interannual variability compared to temperature and NDVI. There was an overall decreasing trend of annual maximum NDVI (y = -0.0019x+4.7). During 1982 to 2003, NDVI and temperature had a similar pattern, but when temperature suddenly jumped to 13.2°C in 2004, NDVI and precipitation declined. This study highlights that temperature increase does not always lead to greening, but after a certain threshold they may cause damage to sub-arctic tundra vegetation.

  11. Ecological functions of riparian zones in Oregon hydrological landscapes

    EPA Science Inventory

    The ecological functions of streams and associated riparian zones are strongly influenced by the hydrological attributes of watersheds and landscapes in which they occur. Oregon hydrologic landscape regions (HLRs) have been defined based on four types of GIS data: 1) climate, 2) ...

  12. Plasmodium vivax malaria: a re-emerging threat for temperate climate zones?

    PubMed

    Petersen, Eskild; Severini, Carlo; Picot, Stephane

    2013-01-01

    Plasmodium vivax was endemic in temperate areas in historic times up to the middle of last century. Temperate climate P. vivax has a long incubation time of up to 8-10 months, which partly explain how it can be endemic in temperate areas with a could winter. P. vivax disappeared from Europe within the last 40-60 years, and this change was not related to climatic changes. The surge of P. vivax in Northern Europe after the second world war was related to displacement of refugees and large movement of military personnel exposed to malaria. Lately P. vivax has been seen along the demilitarized zone in South Korea replication a high endemicity in North Korea. The potential of transmission of P. vivax still exist in temperate zones, but reintroduction in a larger scale of P. vivax to areas without present transmission require large population movements of P. vivax infected people. The highest threat at present is refugees from P. vivax endemic North Korea entering China and South Korea in large numbers. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. An index-based method to assess risks of climate-related hazards in coastal zones: The case of Tetouan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satta, Alessio; Snoussi, Maria; Puddu, Manuela; Flayou, Latifa; Hout, Radouane

    2016-06-01

    The regional risk assessment carried out within the ClimVar & ICZM Project identified the coastal zone of Tetouan as a hotspot of the Mediterranean Moroccan coast and so it was chosen for the application of the Multi-Scale Coastal Risk Index for Local Scale (CRI-LS). The local scale approach provides a useful tool for local coastal planning and management by exploring the effects and the extensions of the hazards and combining hazard, vulnerability and exposure variables in order to identify areas where the risk is relatively high. The coast of Tetouan is one of the coastal areas that have been most rapidly and densely urbanized in Morocco and it is characterized by an erosive shoreline. Local authorities are facing the complex task of balancing development and managing coastal risks, especially coastal erosion and flooding, and then be prepared to the unavoidable impacts of climate change. The first phase of the application of the CRI-LS methodology to Tetouan consisted of defining the coastal hazard zone, which results from the overlaying of the erosion hazard zone and the flooding hazard zone. Nineteen variables were chosen to describe the Hazards, Vulnerability and Exposure factors. The scores corresponding to each variable were calculated and the weights assigned through an expert judgement elicitation. The resulting values are hosted in a geographic information system (GIS) platform that enables the individual variables and aggregated risk scores to be color-coded and mapped across the coastal hazard zone. The results indicated that 10% and 27% of investigated littoral fall under respectively very high and high vulnerability because of combination of high erosion rates with high capital land use. The risk map showed that some areas, especially the flood plains of Restinga, Smir and Martil-Alila, with distances over 5 km from the coast, are characterized by high levels of risk due to the low topography of the flood plains and to the high values of exposure

  14. [Thermal compensation of respiration in pulmonate snails (Pulmonata) of Arion and Deroceras genera living in polar and temperate climatic zone].

    PubMed

    Zotin, A A; Ozerniuk, N D

    2002-01-01

    Comparison of respiration rate in pulmonate snails living in various climatic zones demonstrated higher constant a in representatives of Arion genus (A. subfucus and A. fasciatus) from Polar Area (Murmansk Region) as compared to inhabitants of temperate latitudes (Moscow Region). The snails of Deroceras genus (D. reticulatum) from these two climatic zones were indistinguishable by relative standard metabolism. Different effects of climatic thermal conditions on respiration rates in representatives of these two snail genera can be due to their specific biology. Representatives of Deroceras genus are short-cycle synanthropic species, while the snails of Arion genus are long-cycle species living mostly in the forest zone.

  15. Analyzing the Implications of Climate Data on Plant Hardiness Zones for Green Infrastructure Planning: Case Study of Knoxville, Tennessee and Surrounding Region

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Sylvester, Linda M.; Omitaomu, Olufemi A.; Parish, Esther S.

    Downscaled climate data for Knoxville, Tennessee and the surrounding region were used to investigate future changing Plant Hardiness Zones due to climate change. The methodology used is the same as the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), well-known for their creation of the standard Plant Hardiness Zone map used by gardeners and planners. USDA data were calculated from observed daily data for 1976–2005. The modeled climate data for the past is daily data from 1980-2005 and the future data is projected for 2025–2050. The average of all the modeled annual extreme minimums for each time period of interest was calculated. Eachmore » 1 km raster cell was placed into zone categories based on temperature, using the same criteria and categories of the USDA. The individual models vary between suggesting little change to the Plant Hardiness Zones to suggesting Knoxville moves into the next two Hardiness Zones. But overall, the models suggest moving into the next warmer Zone. USDA currently has the Knoxville area categorized as Zone 7a. None of the Zones calculated from the climate data models placed Knoxville in Zone 7a for the similar time period. The models placed Knoxville in a cooler Hardiness Zone and projected the area to increase to Zone 7. The modeled temperature data appears to be slightly cooler than the actual temperature data and this may explain the zone discrepancy. However, overall Knoxville is projected to increase to the next warmer Zone. As the modeled data has Knoxville, overall, moving from Zone 6 to Zone 7, it can be inferred that Knoxville, Tennessee may increase from their current Zone 7 to Zone 8.« less

  16. Effect of reservoir zones and hedging factor dynamism on reservoir adaptive capacity for climate change impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adeloye, Adebayo J.; Soundharajan, Bankaru-Swamy

    2018-06-01

    When based on the zones of available water in storage, hedging has traditionally used a single hedged zone and a constant rationing ratio for constraining supply during droughts. Given the usual seasonality of reservoir inflows, it is also possible that hedging could feature multiple hedged zones and temporally varying rationing ratios but very few studies addressing this have been reported especially in relation to adaptation to projected climate change. This study developed and tested Genetic Algorithms (GA) optimised zone-based operating policies of various configurations using data for the Pong reservoir, Himachal Pradesh, India. The results show that hedging does lessen vulnerability, which dropped from ≥ 60 % without hedging to below 25 % with the single stage hedging. More complex hedging policies, e.g. two stage and/or temporally varying rationing ratios only produced marginal improvements in performance. All this shows that water hedging policies do not have to be overly complex to effectively offset reservoir vulnerability caused by water shortage resulting from e.g. projected climate change.

  17. Climate change impact on groundwater levels in the Guarani Aquifer outcrop zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melo, D. D.; Wendland, E.

    2013-12-01

    The unsustainable use of groundwater in many countries might cause water availability restrictions in the future. Such issue is likely to worsen due to predicted climate changes for the incoming decades. As numerous studies suggest, aquifers recharge rates will be affected as a result of climate change. The Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) is one of the most important transboundary aquifer in the world, providing drinkable water for millions of people in four South American countries (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay). Considering the GAS relevance and how its recharge rates might be altered by climatic conditions anomalies, the objective of this work is to assess possible climate changes impacts on groundwater levels in this aquifer outcrop zone. Global Climate Models' (GCM) outputs were used as inputs in a transient flux groundwater model created using the software SPA (Simulation of Process in Aquifers), enabling groundwater table fluctuation to be evaluated under distinct climatic scenarios. Six monitoring wells, located in a representative basin (Ribeirão da Onça basin) inside a GAS outcrop zone (ROB), provided water table measurements between 2004 and 2011 to calibrate the groundwater model. Using observed climatic data, a water budget method was applied to estimate recharge in different types of land uses. Statistically downscaled future climate scenarios were used as inputs for that same recharge model, which provided data for running SPA under those scenarios. The results show that most of the GCMs used here predict temperature arises over 275,15 K and major monthly rainfall mean changes to take place in the dry season. During wet seasons, those means might experience around 50% decrease. The transient model results indicate that water table variations, derived from around 70% of the climate scenarios, would vary below those measured between 2004 and 2011. Among the thirteen GCMs considered in this work, only four of them predicted more extreme

  18. Assessing potential climate change pressures across the conterminous United States: mapping plant hardiness zones, heat zones, growing degree days, and cumulative drought severity throughout this century

    Treesearch

    Stephen N. Matthews; Louis R. Iverson; Matthew P. Peters; Anantha M. Prasad

    2018-01-01

    The maps and tables presented here represent potential variability of projected climate change across the conterminous United States during three 30-year periods in this century and emphasizes the importance of evaluating multiple signals of change across large spatial domains. Maps of growing degree days, plant hardiness zones, heat zones, and cumulative drought...

  19. A dynamic viticultural zoning to explore the resilience of terroir concept under climate change.

    PubMed

    Bonfante, A; Monaco, E; Langella, G; Mercogliano, P; Bucchignani, E; Manna, P; Terribile, F

    2018-05-15

    Climate change (CC) directly influences agricultural sectors, presenting the need to identify both adaptation and mitigation actions that can make local farming communities and crop production more resilient. In this context, the viticultural sector is one of those most challenged by CC due to the need to combine grape quality, grapevine cultivar adaptation and therefore farmers' future incomes. Thus, understanding how suitability for viticulture is changing under CC is of primary interest in the development of adaptation strategies in traditional wine-growing regions. Considering that climate is an essential part of the terroir system, the expected variability in climate change could have a marked influence on terroir resilience with important effects on local farming communities in viticultural regions. From this perspective, the aim of this paper is to define a new dynamic viticultural zoning procedure that is able to integrate the effects of CC on grape quality responses and evaluate terroir resilience, providing a support tool for stakeholders involved in viticultural planning (winegrowers, winegrower consortiums, policy makers etc.). To achieve these aims, a Hybrid Land Evaluation System, combining qualitative (standard Land Evaluation) and quantitative (simulation model) approaches, was applied within a traditional region devoted to high quality wine production in Southern Italy (Valle Telesina, BN), for a specific grapevine cultivar (Aglianico). The work employed high resolution climate projections that were derived under two different IPCC scenarios, namely RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The results obtained indicate that: (i) only 2% of the suitable area of Valle Telesina expresses the concept of terroir resilience orientated towards Aglianico ultra quality grape production; (ii) within 2010-2040, it is expected that 41% of the area suitable for Aglianico cultivation will need irrigation to achieve quality grape production; (iii) by 2100, climate change benefits

  20. Thermal and climatic zoning for construction in the southern part of Chile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verichev, Konstantin; Salimova, Alisa; Carpio, Manuel

    2018-05-01

    This paper presents the results of the updated boundaries of thermal zones in the tree southern regions of Chile, based on the method of heating degrees-days according to hourly temperature measurements at meteorological stations in the last decade. The Ministry of Housing and Urban Planning of Chile has not updated these boundaries since 1999. Using the Climatic Severity index method, the relative energy consumption of dwellings was analyzed for cooling and heating in summer and winter periods, respectively. The analysis revealed that, within the limits of a single thermal zone, the energy costs for cooling in the summer period of the same house may differ by 50 %.

  1. The Critical Zone: A Necessary Framework for Understanding Surface Earth Processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dietrich, W. E.

    2016-12-01

    One definition of the critical zone is: the thin veneer of Earth that extends from the top of the vegetation to the base of weathered bedrock. With this definition we can envision the critical zone as a distinct entity with a well-defined top and a fairly well-defined bottom that is distributed across terrestrial earth landscapes. It is a zone of co-evolving processes and, importantly, much of this zone is well below the soil mantle (and commonly more than 10 times thicker than the soil). Weathering advance into fresh bedrock creates a hydrologically-conductive skin that mediates runoff and solute chemistry, stores water used by vegetation, releases water as baseflow to streams, influences soil production and hillslope evolution, and feeds gasses to the atmosphere. Especially in seasonally dry environments, rock moisture in the critical zone, i.e. moisture that is exchangeable and potentially mobile in the matrix and fractures of the bedrock, can be a significant source of water to plants and is a previously unrecognized large component of the water budget that matters to climate models. First observations on the systematic variation of the critical zone across hillslopes have led to four distinct theories representing four distinct processes for what controls the depth to fresh bedrock (and thus the thickness of this zone across a hillslope). These theories are motivating geophysical surveys, deep drilling, and other actions to parameterize and explore the power of these models. Studies at the NSF-supported Critical Zone Observatories have taught us that the critical zone is an entity and that enduring field studies reveal key processes. A challenge we now face is how to include this emerging understanding of the critical zone into models of reactive transport, hydrologic processes and water supply, critical zone structure, landscape evolution, and climate.

  2. Suitability Analysis and Projected Climate Change Impact on Banana and Coffee Production Zones in Nepal

    PubMed Central

    Sujakhu, Nani M.; Merz, Juerg; Kindt, Roeland; Xu, Jianchu; Matin, Mir A.; Ali, Mostafa; Zomer, Robert J.

    2016-01-01

    The Government of Nepal has identified opportunities in agricultural commercialization, responding to a growing internal demand and expansion of export markets to reduce the immense trade deficit. Several cash crops, including coffee and bananas, have been identified in the recently approved Agriculture Development Strategy. Both of these crops have encouraged smallholder farmers to convert their subsistence farming practices to more commercial cultivation. Identification of suitable agro-ecological zones and understanding climate-related issues are important for improved production and livelihoods of smallholder farmers. Here, the suitability of coffee and banana crops is analyzed for different agro-ecological zones represented by Global Environmental Stratification (GEnS). Future shifts in these suitability zones are also predicted. Plantation sites in Nepal were geo-referenced and used as input in species distribution modelling. The multi-model ensemble model suggests that climate change will reduce the suitable growing area for coffee by about 72% across the selected emission scenarios from now to 2050. Impacts are low for banana growing, with a reduction in suitability by about 16% by 2050. Bananas show a lot of potential for playing an important role in Nepal as a sustainable crop in the context of climate change, as this study indicates that the amount of area suited to banana growing will grow by 40% by 2050. Based on our analysis we recommend possible new locations for coffee plantations and one method for mitigating climate change-related problems on existing plantations. These findings are expected to support planning and policy dialogue for mitigation and support better informed and scientifically based decision-making relating to these two crops. PMID:27689354

  3. Age and area predict patterns of species richness in pumice rafts contingent on oceanic climatic zone encountered.

    PubMed

    Velasquez, Eleanor; Bryan, Scott E; Ekins, Merrick; Cook, Alex G; Hurrey, Lucy; Firn, Jennifer

    2018-05-01

    The theory of island biogeography predicts that area and age explain species richness patterns (or alpha diversity) in insular habitats. Using a unique natural phenomenon, pumice rafting, we measured the influence of area, age, and oceanic climate on patterns of species richness. Pumice rafts are formed simultaneously when submarine volcanoes erupt, the pumice clasts breakup irregularly, forming irregularly shaped pumice stones which while floating through the ocean are colonized by marine biota. We analyze two eruption events and more than 5,000 pumice clasts collected from 29 sites and three climatic zones. Overall, the older and larger pumice clasts held more species. Pumice clasts arriving in tropical and subtropical climates showed this same trend, where in temperate locations species richness (alpha diversity) increased with area but decreased with age. Beta diversity analysis of the communities forming on pumice clasts that arrived in different climatic zones showed that tropical and subtropical clasts transported similar communities, while species composition on temperate clasts differed significantly from both tropical and subtropical arrivals. Using these thousands of insular habitats, we find strong evidence that area and age but also climatic conditions predict the fundamental dynamics of species richness colonizing pumice clasts.

  4. Climatic Zones, Soil Moisture Seasonality and Biomass Burning and Their Influence On Ozone Precursor Concentrations Over West Africa as Retrieved from Satellites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Onojeghuo, A. R.; Balzter, H.; Monks, P. S.

    2015-12-01

    West Africa is a region with six different climatic zones including a rich savannah affected by biomass burning annually, the Niger delta oil producing region with major gas flaring sites and a long coastline. Research on atmospheric pollution using remotely sensed data over West Africa has mostly been conducted at regional scale or for individual countries, with little emphasis on the dynamics of climatic zones and the diversity of land cover types. This study analyses annual seasonal dynamics of emissions of two ozone precursors stratified by climatic zone: nitrogen dioxide (NO2) from OMI and carbon monoxide (CO) from TES. The different sources of these pollutants and their seasonality are explicitly considered. Results indicate that the highest annual wet season NO2 column concentrations were in the semi-arid zone (1.33 x 1015 molecules cm-2) after prolonged periods of low soil moisture while the highest dry season were observed in the wet sub-humid zone (2.62 x 1015 molecules cm-2) where the savannah fires occur annually. The highest annual CO concentrations (> 3.1 x 1018 molecules cm-2) were from the Niger Delta, located in the humid zone. There were indications of atmospheric transport of CO from the southern hemisphere in the west season. Climate change induced soil moisture variability was most prominent in the dry sub-humid and semi-arid climatic zones (±0.015m3m-3) . The causal effects of soil moisture variability on NO2 emissions and their seasonal cycles were tested using the Granger causality test. Causal effects of inter-zonal exchanges/transport of NO2 and CO emissions respectively were inferred using Directed Acyclic Graphs. The results indicate that NO2, CO and their seasonal ratios are strongly affected by changes in soil moisture.

  5. Assessing the relationship between surface urban heat islands and landscape patterns across climatic zones in China.

    PubMed

    Yang, Qiquan; Huang, Xin; Li, Jiayi

    2017-08-24

    The urban heat island (UHI) effect exerts a great influence on the Earth's environment and human health and has been the subject of considerable attention. Landscape patterns are among the most important factors relevant to surface UHIs (SUHIs); however, the relationship between SUHIs and landscape patterns is poorly understood over large areas. In this study, the surface UHI intensity (SUHII) is defined as the temperature difference between urban and suburban areas, and the landscape patterns are quantified by the urban-suburban differences in several typical landscape metrics (ΔLMs). Temperature and land-cover classification datasets based on satellite observations were applied to analyze the relationship between SUHII and ΔLMs in 332 cities/city agglomerations distributed in different climatic zones of China. The results indicate that SUHII and its correlations with ΔLMs are profoundly influenced by seasonal, diurnal, and climatic factors. The impacts of different land-cover types on SUHIs are different, and the landscape patterns of the built-up and vegetation (including forest, grassland, and cultivated land) classes have the most significant effects on SUHIs. The results of this study will help us to gain a deeper understanding of the relationship between the SUHI effect and landscape patterns.

  6. Longleaf pine site zones

    Treesearch

    Phillip J. Craul; John S. Kush; William D. Boyer

    2005-01-01

    The authors delineate six major climatic areas of the longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) region. They subdivide these areas into 21 site zones, each of which is deemed homogenous with respect to climate, physiography, and soils. The site zones are mapped and their climate, physiography, and soils described. The authors recommend that plantings of...

  7. Impacts of Climate Anomalies on the Vegetation Patterns in the Arid and Semi-Arid Zones of Uzbekistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dildora, Aralova; Toderich, Kristina; Dilshod, Gafurov

    2016-08-01

    Steadily rising temperature anomalies in last decades are causing changes in vegetation patterns for sensitive to climate change in arid and semi-arid dryland ecosystems. After desiccation of the Aral Sea, Uzbekistan has been left with the challenge to develop drought and heat stress monitoring system and tools (e.g., to monitor vegetation status and/crop pattern dynamics) with using remote sensing technologies in broad scale. This study examines several climate parameters, NDVI and drought indexes within geostatistical method to predict further vegetation status in arid and semi-arid zones of landscapes. This approaches aimed to extract and utilize certain variable environmental data (temperature and precipitation) for assessment and inter-linkages of vegetation cover dynamics, specifically related to predict degraded and recovered zones or desertification process in the drylands due to scarcity of water resources and high risks of climate anomalies in fragile ecosystem of Uzbekistan.

  8. Viticultural zoning in Portugal: current conditions and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fraga, H.; Santos, J. A.; Malheiro, A. C.; Moutinho-Pereira, J.

    2012-04-01

    Viticulture and wine production represent a main economic activity of the agro-production sector in Portugal, particularly over some world famous winemaking regions, such as the Port Wine / Douro Valley, Minho and Alentejo. As viticultural zoning provides valuable information regarding the suitability of a given grapevine variety to local climatic conditions, it is thus of great interest to the Portuguese winemaking sector. Furthermore, projected future climates are also likely to have important impacts on this zoning. Therefore, in the current study we aim at 1) discussing the current viticultural zoning in Portugal, and 2) assessing its future changes under anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (A1B SRES scenario) in the 2011-2070 time period. A set of appropriate bioclimatic indices, computed using temperatures and precipitations defined on a daily basis, is used for viticultural zoning. For the assessment of the recent-past conditions an observational gridded dataset (E-OBS) is used, while for future climate change projections, a 16-member ensemble of model experiments (ENSEMBLES project dataset), is considered. Overall, statistically significant increases (decreases) in the thermally-based (humidity-based) indices are projected to occur in the future throughout the country, particularly over its southern and innermost regions. All these changes are in agreement with the widely accepted projections for warmer and dryer Southern European climates. High impacts are found in the most important winemaking regions in Portugal, highlighting the urgent need for developing suitable adaptation and mitigation measures so as to cope with a changing climate. A reshaping of the viticultural regions is thereby expected to occur within the next decades over Portugal.

  9. Importance of unsaturated zone flow for simulating recharge in a humid climate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hunt, R.J.; Prudic, David E.; Walker, J.F.; Anderson, M.P.

    2008-01-01

    Transient recharge to the water table is often not well understood or quantified. Two approaches for simulating transient recharge in a ground water flow model were investigated using the Trout Lake watershed in north-central Wisconsin: (1) a traditional approach of adding recharge directly to the water table and (2) routing the same volume of water through an unsaturated zone column to the water table. Areas with thin (less than 1 m) unsaturated zones showed little difference in timing of recharge between the two approaches; when water was routed through the unsaturated zone, however, less recharge was delivered to the water table and more discharge occurred to the surface because recharge direction and magnitude changed when the water table rose to the land surface. Areas with a thick (15 to 26 m) unsaturated zone were characterized by multimonth lags between infiltration and recharge, and, in some cases, wetting fronts from precipitation events during the fall overtook and mixed with infiltration from the previous spring snowmelt. Thus, in thicker unsaturated zones, the volume of water infiltrated was properly simulated using the traditional approach, but the timing was different from simulations that included unsaturated zone flow. Routing of rejected recharge and ground water discharge at land surface to surface water features also provided a better simulation of the observed flow regime in a stream at the basin outlet. These results demonstrate that consideration of flow through the unsaturated zone may be important when simulating transient ground water flow in humid climates with shallow water tables.

  10. Heterogeneous responses of temperate-zone amphibian populations to climate change complicates conservation planning

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Muths, Erin L.; Chambert, Thierry A.; Schmidt, B. R.; Miller, D. A. W.; Hossack, Blake R.; Joly, P.; Grolet, O.; Green, D. M.; Pilliod, David S.; Cheylan, M.; Fisher, Robert N.; McCaffery, R. M.; Adams, M. J.; Palen, W. J.; Arntzen, J. W.; Garwood, J.; Fellers, Gary M.; Thirion, J. M.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Besnard, A.

    2017-01-01

    The pervasive and unabated nature of global amphibian declines suggests common demographic responses to a given driver, and quantification of major drivers and responses could inform broad-scale conservation actions. We explored the influence of climate on demographic parameters (i.e., changes in the probabilities of survival and recruitment) using 31 datasets from temperate zone amphibian populations (North America and Europe) with more than a decade of observations each. There was evidence for an influence of climate on population demographic rates, but the direction and magnitude of responses to climate drivers was highly variable among taxa and among populations within taxa. These results reveal that climate drivers interact with variation in life-history traits and population-specific attributes resulting in a diversity of responses. This heterogeneity complicates the identification of conservation ‘rules of thumb’ for these taxa, and supports the notion of local focus as the most effective approach to overcome global-scale conservation challenges.

  11. Defining and Measuring Safety Climate: A Review of the Construction Industry Literature.

    PubMed

    Schwatka, Natalie V; Hecker, Steven; Goldenhar, Linda M

    2016-06-01

    Safety climate measurements can be used to proactively assess an organization's effectiveness in identifying and remediating work-related hazards, thereby reducing or preventing work-related ill health and injury. This review article focuses on construction-specific articles that developed and/or measured safety climate, assessed safety climate's relationship with other safety and health performance indicators, and/or used safety climate measures to evaluate interventions targeting one or more indicators of safety climate. Fifty-six articles met our inclusion criteria, 80% of which were published after 2008. Our findings demonstrate that researchers commonly defined safety climate as perception based, but the object of those perceptions varies widely. Within the wide range of indicators used to measure safety climate, safety policies, procedures, and practices were the most common, followed by general management commitment to safety. The most frequently used indicators should and do reflect that the prevention of work-related ill health and injury depends on both organizational and employee actions. Safety climate scores were commonly compared between groups (e.g. management and workers, different trades), and often correlated with subjective measures of safety behavior rather than measures of ill health or objective safety and health outcomes. Despite the observed limitations of current research, safety climate has been promised as a useful feature of research and practice activities to prevent work-related ill health and injury. Safety climate survey data can reveal gaps between management and employee perceptions, or between espoused and enacted policies, and trigger communication and action to narrow those gaps. The validation of safety climate with safety and health performance data offers the potential for using safety climate measures as a leading indicator of performance. We discuss these findings in relation to the related concept of safety culture and

  12. Identifying Local Scale Climate Zones of Urban Heat Island from HJ-1B Satellite Data Using Self-Organizing Maps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, C. Z.; Blaschke, T.

    2016-10-01

    With the increasing acceleration of urbanization, the degeneration of the environment and the Urban Heat Island (UHI) has attracted more and more attention. Quantitative delineation of UHI has become crucial for a better understanding of the interregional interaction between urbanization processes and the urban environment system. First of all, our study used medium resolution Chinese satellite data-HJ-1B as the Earth Observation data source to derive parameters, including the percentage of Impervious Surface Areas, Land Surface Temperature, Land Surface Albedo, Normalized Differential Vegetation Index, and object edge detector indicators (Mean of Inner Border, Mean of Outer border) in the city of Guangzhou, China. Secondly, in order to establish a model to delineate the local climate zones of UHI, we used the Principal Component Analysis to explore the correlations between all these parameters, and estimate their contributions to the principal components of UHI zones. Finally, depending on the results of the PCA, we chose the most suitable parameters to classify the urban climate zones based on a Self-Organization Map (SOM). The results show that all six parameters are closely correlated with each other and have a high percentage of cumulative (95%) in the first two principal components. Therefore, the SOM algorithm automatically categorized the city of Guangzhou into five classes of UHI zones using these six spectral, structural and climate parameters as inputs. UHI zones have distinguishable physical characteristics, and could potentially help to provide the basis and decision support for further sustainable urban planning.

  13. Energy Savings of Low-E Storm Windows and Panels across US Climate Zones

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Culp, Thomas D.; Cort, Katherine A.

    This report builds off of previous modeling work related to low-e storm windows used to create a "Database of U.S. Climate-Based Analysis for Low-E Storm Windows." This work updates similar studies using new fuel costs and examining the separate contributions of reduced air leakage and reduced coefficients of overall heat transfer and solar heat gain. In this report we examine the energy savings and cost effectiveness of low-E storm windows in residential homes across a broad range of U.S. climates, excluding the impact from infiltration reductions, which tend to vary using the National Energy Audit Tool (NEAT) and RESFEN modelmore » calculations. This report includes a summary of the results, NEAT and RESFEN background, methodology, and input assumptions, and an appendix with detailed results and assumptions by climate zone.« less

  14. Evaluation of factors affecting soil carbon sequestration services of stormwater wet retention ponds in varying climate zones.

    PubMed

    Merriman, L S; Moore, T L C; Wang, J W; Osmond, D L; Al-Rubaei, A M; Smolek, A P; Blecken, G T; Viklander, M; Hunt, W F

    2017-04-01

    The carbon sequestration services of stormwater wet retention ponds were investigated in four different climates: U.S., Northern Sweden, Southern Sweden, and Singapore, representing a range of annual mean temperatures, growing season lengths and rainfall depths: geographic factors that were not statistically compared, but have great effect on carbon (C) accumulation. A chronosequence was used to estimate C accumulations rates; C accumulation and decomposition rates were not directly measured. C accumulated significantly over time in vegetated shallow water areas (0-30cm) in the USA (78.4gCm -2 yr -1 ), in vegetated temporary inundation zones in Sweden (75.8gCm -2 yr -1 ), and in all ponds in Singapore (135gCm -2 yr -1 ). Vegetative production appeared to exert a stronger influence on relative C accumulation rates than decomposition. Comparing among the four climatic zones, the effects of increasing rainfall and growing season lengths (vegetative production) outweighed the effects of higher temperature on decomposition rates. Littoral vegetation was a significant source to the soil C pool relative to C sources draining from watersheds. Establishment of vegetation in the shallow water zones of retention ponds is vital to providing a C source to the soil. Thus, the width of littoral shelves containing this vegetation along the perimeter may be increased if C sequestration is a design goal. This assessment establishes that stormwater wet retention ponds can sequester C across different climate zones with generally annual rainfall and lengths of growing season being important general factors for C accumulation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Three-Dimensional Topographic Surface Changes in Response to Compartmental Volumization of the Medial Cheek: Defining a Malar Augmentation Zone.

    PubMed

    Stern, Carrie S; Schreiber, Jillian E; Surek, Chris C; Garfein, Evan S; Jelks, Elizabeth B; Jelks, Glenn W; Tepper, Oren M

    2016-05-01

    Given the widespread use of facial fillers and recent identification of distinct facial fat compartments, a better understanding of three-dimensional surface changes in response to volume augmentation is needed. Advances in three-dimensional imaging technology now afford an opportunity to elucidate these morphologic changes for the first time. A cadaver study was undertaken in which volumization of the deep medial cheek compartment was performed at intervals up to 4 cc (n = 4). Three-dimensional photographs were taken after each injection to analyze the topographic surface changes, which the authors define as the "augmentation zone." Perimeter, diameter, and projection were studied. The arcus marginalis of the inferior orbit consistently represented a fixed boundary of the augmentation zone, and additional cadavers underwent similar volumization following surgical release of this portion of the arcus marginalis (n = 4). Repeated three-dimensional computer analysis was performed comparing the augmentation zone with and without arcus marginalis release. Volumization of the deep medial cheek led to unique topographic changes of the malar region defined by distinct boundaries. Interestingly, the cephalic border of the augmentation zone was consistently noted to be at the level of the arcus marginalis in all specimens. When surgical release of the arcus marginalis was performed, the cephalic border of the augmentation zone was no longer restricted. Using advances in three-dimensional photography and computer analysis, the authors demonstrate characteristic surface anatomy changes in response to volume augmentation of facial compartments. This novel concept of the augmentation zone can be applied to volumization of other distinct facial regions. Therapeutic, V.

  16. Climate variability and environmental stress in the Sudan-Sahel zone of West Africa.

    PubMed

    Mertz, Ole; D'haen, Sarah; Maiga, Abdou; Moussa, Ibrahim Bouzou; Barbier, Bruno; Diouf, Awa; Diallo, Drissa; Da, Evariste Dapola; Dabi, Daniel

    2012-06-01

    Environmental change in the Sudan-Sahel region of West Africa (SSWA) has been much debated since the droughts of the 1970s. In this article we assess climate variability and environmental stress in the region. Households in Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Nigeria were asked about climatic changes and their perceptions were compared across north-south and west-east rainfall gradients. More than 80% of all households found that rainfall had decreased, especially in the wettest areas. Increases in wind speeds and temperature were perceived by an overall 60-80% of households. Contrary to household perceptions, observed rainfall patterns showed an increasing trend over the past 20 years. However, August rainfall declined, and could therefore potentially explain the contrasting negative household perceptions of rainfall trends. Most households reported degradation of soils, water resources, vegetation, and fauna, but more so in the 500-900 mm zones. Adaptation measures to counter environmental degradation included use of manure, reforestation, soil and water conservation, and protection of fauna and vegetation. The results raise concerns for future environmental management in the region, especially in the 500-900 mm zones and the western part of SSWA.

  17. An overview of dry-wet climate variability among monsoon-westerly regions and the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qian, Weihong; Ding, Ting; Hu, Haoran; Lin, Xiang; Qin, Aimin

    2009-07-01

    Climate in mainland China can be divided into the monsoon region in the southeast and the westerly region in the northwest as well as the intercross zone, i.e., the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone that is oriented from Southwest China to the upper Yellow River, North China, and Northeast China. In the three regions, dry-wet climate changes are directly linked to the interaction of the southerly monsoon flow on the east side of the Tibetan Plateau and the westerly flow on the north side of the Plateau from the inter-annual to inter-decadal timescales. Some basic features of climate variability in the three regions for the last half century and the historical hundreds of years are reviewed in this paper. In the last half century, an increasing trend of summer precipitation associated with the enhancing westerly flow is found in the westerly region from Xinjiang to northern parts of North China and Northeast China. On the other hand, an increasing trend of summer precipitation along the Yangtze River and a decreasing trend of summer precipitation along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone are associated with the weakening monsoon flow in East Asia. Historical documents are widely distributed in the monsoon region for hundreds of years and natural climate proxies are constructed in the non-monsoon region, while two types of climate proxies can be commonly found over the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone. In the monsoon region, dry-wet variation centers are altered among North China, the lower Yangtze River, and South China from one century to another. Dry or wet anomalies are firstly observed along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone and shifted southward or southeastward to the Yangtze River valley and South China in about a 70-year timescale. Severe drought events are experienced along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone during the last 5 centuries. Inter-decadal dry-wet variations are depicted by natural proxies for the

  18. Factors influencing smallholder farmers' behavioural intention towards adaptation to climate change in transitional climatic zones: A case study of Hwedza District in Zimbabwe.

    PubMed

    Zamasiya, Byron; Nyikahadzoi, Kefasi; Mukamuri, Billy Billiard

    2017-08-01

    This paper examines factors influencing behavioural change among smallholder farmers towards adaptation to climate change in transitional climatic zones of Africa, specifically, Hwedza District in Zimbabwe. Data for this study were collected from 400 randomly-selected smallholder farmers, using a structured questionnaire, focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The study used an ordered logit model to examine the factors that influence smallholder farmers' behavioural intention towards adaptation to climate change. Results from the study show that the gender of the household head, access to extension services on crop and livestock production, access to climate information, membership to social groups and experiencing a drought have a positive influence on farmers' attitude towards adaptation to climate change and variability. The study concluded that although the majority of smallholder farmers perceive that the climate is changing, they continue to habour negative attitudes towards prescribed climate change adaptation techniques. This study recommends more education on climate change, as well as adaptation strategies for both agricultural extension workers and farmers. This can be complemented by disseminating timely climate information through extension officers and farmers' groups. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Analysis of Solar Chimneys in Different Climate Zones - Case of Social Housing in Ecuador

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Godoy-Vaca, Luis; Almaguer, Manuel; Martínez-Gómez, Javier; Lobato, Andrea; Palme, Massimo

    2017-10-01

    The aim of this research is to simulate the performance of a solar chimney located in different macro-zones in Ecuador. The proposed solar chimney model was simulated using a python script in order to predict the temperature distribution and the mass flow over time. The results obtained were firstly compared with experimental data for dry-warm climate. Then, the model was evaluated and tested in real weather conditions: dry-warm, moist-warm and rainy-cold. In addition, the assumed chimney dimensions were chosen according to the literature for the studied conditions. In spite of evaluating the best nightly ventilation, different chimney wall materials were tested: solid brick, common brick and reinforced concrete. The results showed that concrete in a dry-warm climate, a metallic layer on the gap with solid brick in a moist-warm climate and reinforced concrete in a rainy cold climate used for the absorbent wall improve the thermal inertia of the social housing.

  20. Thermal energy and economic analysis of a PCM-enhanced household envelope considering different climate zones in Morocco

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kharbouch, Yassine; Mimet, Abdelaziz; El Ganaoui, Mohammed; Ouhsaine, Lahoucine

    2018-07-01

    This study investigates the thermal energy potentials and economic feasibility of an air-conditioned family household-integrated phase change material (PCM) considering different climate zones in Morocco. A simulation-based optimisation was carried out in order to define the optimal design of a PCM-enhanced household envelope for thermal energy effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of predefined candidate solutions. The optimisation methodology is based on coupling Energyplus® as a dynamic simulation tool and GenOpt® as an optimisation tool. Considering the obtained optimum design strategies, a thermal energy and economic analysis are carried out to investigate PCMs' integration feasibility in the Moroccan constructions. The results show that the PCM-integrated household envelope allows minimising the cooling/heating thermal energy demand vs. a reference household without PCM. While for the cost-effectiveness optimisation, it has been deduced that the economic feasibility is stilling insufficient under the actual PCM market conditions. The optimal design parameters results are also analysed.

  1. School Climate: A History of the Concept and Approaches to Defining and Measuring it on PISA Questionnaires

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chirkina, T. A.; Khavenson, T. E.

    2018-01-01

    School climate is one of the significant factors determining educational achievement. However, the lack of instruments to measure it has complicated the study of this concept in Russia. We review the history of the study of the concept of "school climate," and we discuss approaches to how it can be defined. We describe the most widely…

  2. Resonant slow fault slip in subduction zones forced by climatic load stress.

    PubMed

    Lowry, Anthony R

    2006-08-17

    Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements at subduction plate boundaries often record fault movements similar to earthquakes but much slower, occurring over timescales of approximately 1 week to approximately 1 year. These 'slow slip events' have been observed in Japan, Cascadia, Mexico, Alaska and New Zealand. The phenomenon is poorly understood, but several observations hint at the processes underlying slow slip. Although slip itself is silent, seismic instruments often record coincident low-amplitude tremor in a narrow (1-5 cycles per second) frequency range. Also, modelling of GPS data and estimates of tremor location indicate that slip focuses near the transition from unstable ('stick-slip') to stable friction at the deep limit of the earthquake-producing seismogenic zone. Perhaps most intriguingly, slow slip is periodic at several locations, with recurrence varying from 6 to 18 months depending on which subduction zone (or even segment) is examined. Here I show that such periodic slow fault slip may be a resonant response to climate-driven stress perturbations. Fault slip resonance helps to explain why slip events are periodic, why periods differ from place to place, and why slip focuses near the base of the seismogenic zone. Resonant slip should initiate within the rupture zone of future great earthquakes, suggesting that slow slip may illuminate fault properties that control earthquake slip.

  3. Global climate change and its potential impact on disease transmission by salinity-tolerant mosquito vectors in coastal zones.

    PubMed

    Ramasamy, Ranjan; Surendran, Sinnathamby Noble

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change can potentially increase the transmission of mosquito vector-borne diseases such as malaria, lymphatic filariasis, and dengue in many parts of the world. These predictions are based on the effects of changing temperature, rainfall, and humidity on mosquito breeding and survival, the more rapid development of ingested pathogens in mosquitoes and the more frequent blood feeds at moderately higher ambient temperatures. An expansion of saline and brackish water bodies (water with <0.5 ppt or parts per thousand, 0.5-30 ppt and >30 ppt salt are termed fresh, brackish, and saline respectively) will also take place as a result of global warming causing a rise in sea levels in coastal zones. Its possible impact on the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases has, however, not been adequately appreciated. The relevant impacts of global climate change on the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in coastal zones are discussed with reference to the Ross-McDonald equation and modeling studies. Evidence is presented to show that an expansion of brackish water bodies in coastal zones can increase the densities of salinity-tolerant mosquitoes like Anopheles sundaicus and Culex sitiens, and lead to the adaptation of fresh water mosquito vectors like Anopheles culicifacies, Anopheles stephensi, Aedes aegypti, and Aedes albopictus to salinity. Rising sea levels may therefore act synergistically with global climate change to increase the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in coastal zones. Greater attention therefore needs to be devoted to monitoring disease incidence and preimaginal development of vector mosquitoes in artificial and natural coastal brackish/saline habitats. It is important that national and international health agencies are aware of the increased risk of mosquito-borne diseases in coastal zones and develop preventive and mitigating strategies. Application of appropriate counter measures can greatly reduce the potential for increased

  4. Global Climate Change and Its Potential Impact on Disease Transmission by Salinity-Tolerant Mosquito Vectors in Coastal Zones

    PubMed Central

    Ramasamy, Ranjan; Surendran, Sinnathamby Noble

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change can potentially increase the transmission of mosquito vector-borne diseases such as malaria, lymphatic filariasis, and dengue in many parts of the world. These predictions are based on the effects of changing temperature, rainfall, and humidity on mosquito breeding and survival, the more rapid development of ingested pathogens in mosquitoes and the more frequent blood feeds at moderately higher ambient temperatures. An expansion of saline and brackish water bodies (water with <0.5 ppt or parts per thousand, 0.5–30 ppt and >30 ppt salt are termed fresh, brackish, and saline respectively) will also take place as a result of global warming causing a rise in sea levels in coastal zones. Its possible impact on the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases has, however, not been adequately appreciated. The relevant impacts of global climate change on the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in coastal zones are discussed with reference to the Ross–McDonald equation and modeling studies. Evidence is presented to show that an expansion of brackish water bodies in coastal zones can increase the densities of salinity-tolerant mosquitoes like Anopheles sundaicus and Culex sitiens, and lead to the adaptation of fresh water mosquito vectors like Anopheles culicifacies, Anopheles stephensi, Aedes aegypti, and Aedes albopictus to salinity. Rising sea levels may therefore act synergistically with global climate change to increase the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in coastal zones. Greater attention therefore needs to be devoted to monitoring disease incidence and preimaginal development of vector mosquitoes in artificial and natural coastal brackish/saline habitats. It is important that national and international health agencies are aware of the increased risk of mosquito-borne diseases in coastal zones and develop preventive and mitigating strategies. Application of appropriate counter measures can greatly reduce the potential for

  5. Prediction of Root Zone Soil Moisture using Remote Sensing Products and In-Situ Observation under Climate Change Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, G.; Panda, R. K.; Mohanty, B.

    2015-12-01

    Prediction of root zone soil moisture status at field level is vital for developing efficient agricultural water management schemes. In this study, root zone soil moisture was estimated across the Rana watershed in Eastern India, by assimilation of near-surface soil moisture estimate from SMOS satellite into a physically-based Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant (SWAP) model. An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) technique coupled with SWAP model was used for assimilating the satellite soil moisture observation at different spatial scales. The universal triangle concept and artificial intelligence techniques were applied to disaggregate the SMOS satellite monitored near-surface soil moisture at a 40 km resolution to finer scale (1 km resolution), using higher spatial resolution of MODIS derived vegetation indices (NDVI) and land surface temperature (Ts). The disaggregated surface soil moisture were compared to ground-based measurements in diverse landscape using portable impedance probe and gravimetric samples. Simulated root zone soil moisture were compared with continuous soil moisture profile measurements at three monitoring stations. In addition, the impact of projected climate change on root zone soil moisture were also evaluated. The climate change projections of rainfall were analyzed for the Rana watershed from statistically downscaled Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The long-term root zone soil moisture dynamics were estimated by including a rainfall generator of likely scenarios. The predicted long term root zone soil moisture status at finer scale can help in developing efficient agricultural water management schemes to increase crop production, which lead to enhance the water use efficiency.

  6. Creating Indices Representing the Atmospheric Conditions throughout Japan by Using Frontal Zone Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, N.

    2015-12-01

    The climate of Japan exhibits mid-latitude and east coast condition characteristics within the continent, which leads to the large meridional range of the frontal migration and the resultant large annual seasonal change. Therefore, describing the long-term behavior of frontal zones is important for understanding the seasonal, interannual, and long-term variations of the Japanese climate. The purpose of this work is to create indices representing the atmospheric conditions throughout Japan by using frontal zone data created by an objective method at pentad intervals for the period 1948-2013. The indexation was conducted by principal component analyses on the distribution maps of the frontal frequencies near frontal zones, which are defined as the latitude indicating the maximum of the frontal frequencies along each longitude in the climatological mean field. This work focuses on the first four factors, PC1-4, which indicate high contribution rates. The distribution maps of factor loadings were interpreted in the following manner as variations of the frontal zone: PC1, north-south variations in the locations of the frontal zone; PC2, frontal frequencies around the frontal zone; PC3, the running direction of the frontal zone, whether northwest-southeast or southwest-northeast; and PC4, west-east variations of the frontal frequencies. These factors could be regarded as the indices representing the atmospheric conditions throughout Japan. The result of correlation analysis among the indices in this work and those representing global climatic phenomena such as Niño3 sea surface temperature (SST), in addition to Pacific decadal and Arctic oscillations, indicated the comprehensive relationships revealed in previous research. Furthermore, several long-term trend characteristics were exhibited, such as the southward shift of frontal zones in mid- and late spring and the increase of frontal frequencies around frontal zones in mid- and late summer. Thus, the simple indices

  7. Defining Steamside Management Zones or Riparian Buffers

    Treesearch

    Thomas M. Williams; Donald J. Lipscomb; Christopher J. Post

    2004-01-01

    Forestry Best Management Practices (BMPs) have been highly successful in protecting water quality throughout the Southeast. Numerous studies have found them to be effective in protecting water quality. Despite being mostly voluntary, compliance is generally about 90 percent across the region. Streamside Management Zones (SMZs) or riparian buffers are specified for...

  8. Influence of Climate and Lithology on Soil Phosphorus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, S. G.; Margenot, A. J.; O'Geen, A. T.; Dahlgren, R. A.

    2016-12-01

    Climate and lithology are master variables of pedogenesis. We hypothesize that differences in parent material composition will influence the outcome of soil P fractionation, in concert with climate and the relative degree of chemical weathering. Here, we investigate a novel climo-lithosequence to elucidate the influence of lithology and climate on P dynamics. Three climosequences (elevational transects) spanning four climatic zones (Blue-Oak, Ponderosa Pine, White fir and Red fir), and three bedrock lithologies (basalt, andesite and granodiorite) were investigated across the Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades. Replicate soil samples were collected by genetic horizon at twelve sites (4 climate zones x 3 lithologies) and characterized by a modified Hedley P fractionation method to quantify P into operationally defined pools. Initial results from the fractionation of andesite and basalt transects (granodiorite forthcoming) show large climatic and lithologic effects on soil P fractions, suggesting that the distribution of soil P and the trajectory of P transformations are significantly influenced by lithology as well as climate. For example, in the climatic zone of least weathering (Red fir), all soil P fractions showed significant lithologic effects. In contrast, with increased weathering, parent material effects on soil P fractions become progressively muted, so that in the zone of most intense weathering (Ponderosa Pine), soil P fractions such as Ca-Pi (1 M HCl-Pi) and labile-Pi (Resin Pi + NaHCO3-Pi), no longer show an influence from lithology. Additionally, significant climatic effects were noted for labile-Pi, Ca-Pi and Fe/Al-Pi (0.1 M NaOH-Pi). A strong positive correlation was observed between poorly crystalline Fe/Al-(hydr)oxides (oxalate extractable Fe and Al) and Fe/Al-Pi (p<0.0001). Conversely, a strong negative correlation was observed between crystalline Fe-oxides (inferred by citrate-dithionite extractable Fe) and Fe/Al-Pi (p<0.0001). Results suggest

  9. Nevada Monitoring System to Assess Climate Variability and Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Devitt, D. A.; Arnone, J.; Biondi, F.; Fenstermaker, L. F.; Saito, L.; Young, M.; Riddle, B.; Strachan, S. D.; Bird, B.; McCurdy, G.; Lyles, B. F.

    2010-12-01

    The Nevada System of Higher Education (University of Nevada Las Vegas, University of Nevada Reno and the Desert Research Institute) was awarded a multiyear NSF EPSCoR grant to support infrastructure associated with regional climate change research. The overall project is comprised of 5 components: education, cyberinfrastructure, policy, climate modeling and water/ecology. The water and ecology components are using their infrastructure funding for the assessment of climate variability and change on ecosystem function and hydrologic services. A series of 10 m tall towers are under construction and are being equipped with a wide array of sensors to monitor atmospheric, soil and plant parameters over time. The towers are located within the Mojave and Great Basin Deserts in two transects; the Mojave Desert transect is located in the southern Nevada Sheep Mountain Range and the Great Basin transect is located in the east central Nevada Snake Mountain Range. The towers are centrally positioned in well-defined vegetation zones. In southern Nevada these zones are represented by the following plant species: Creosote/Bursage (Creosotebush scrub zone); Blackbrush/Joshua Tree (Blackbrush zone); Pinyon/ Juniper (pygmy conifer zone), Ponderosa Pine (montane zone) and Bristlecone Pine (subalpine zone). The Snake Mountain transect incorporates the eastern and western valleys on both sides of the mountain range. The vegetation zones are represented by: Greasewood and mixed shrub (salt desert zone); Big Sage (sagebrush zone); Pinyon/Juniper (pygmy conifer zone); White/Douglas Fir, Ponderosa Pine and Aspen (montane zone); and Bristlecone/Limber Pine and Engelmann Spruce (subalpine zone). We are currently in the third year of funding with a goal of having the majority of towers fully operational by winter 2010. In close collaboration with our cyberinfrastructure component team, all data acquired from the transect monitoring stations will be made available to other researchers and the

  10. Defining the safe working zones using the minimally invasive lateral retroperitoneal transpsoas approach: an anatomical study.

    PubMed

    Uribe, Juan S; Arredondo, Nicolas; Dakwar, Elias; Vale, Fernando L

    2010-08-01

    The lateral retroperitoneal transpsoas approach is being increasingly employed to treat various spinal disorders. The minimally invasive blunt retroperitoneal and transpsoas dissection poses a risk of injury to major nervous structures. The addition of electrophysiological monitoring potentially decreases the risk of injury to the lumbar plexus. With respect to the use of the direct transpsoas approach, however, there is sparse knowledge regarding the relationship between the retroperitoneum/psoas muscle and the lumbar plexus at each lumbar segment. The authors undertook this anatomical cadaveric dissection study to define the anatomical safe zones relative to the disc spaces for prevention of nerve injuries during the lateral retroperitoneal transpsoas approach. Twenty lumbar segments were dissected and studied. The relationship between the retroperitoneum, psoas muscle, and the lumbar plexus was analyzed. The area between the anterior and posterior edges of the vertebral body (VB) was divided into 4 equal zones. Radiopaque markers were placed in each disc space at the midpoint of Zone III (middle posterior quarter). At each segment, the psoas muscle, lumbar plexus, and nerve roots were dissected. The distribution of the lumbar plexus with reference to the markers at each lumbar segment was analyzed. All parts of the lumbar plexus, including nerve roots, were found within the substance of the psoas muscle dorsal to the posterior fourth of the VB (Zone IV). No Zone III marker was posterior to any part of the lumbar plexus with the exception of the genitofemoral nerve. The genitofemoral nerve travels obliquely in the substance of the psoas muscle from its origin to its innervations. It emerges superficially and anterior from the medial border of the psoas at the L3-4 level and courses along the anterior medial fourth of the L-4 and L-5 VBs (Zone I). The nerves of the plexus that originate at the upper lumbar segments emerge from the lateral border of the psoas major

  11. The role of climate in the dynamics of a hybrid zone in Appalachian salamanders

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Walls, Susan

    2009-01-01

    I examined the potential influence of climate change on the dynamics of a previously studied hybrid zone between a pair of terrestrial salamanders at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, U.S. Forest Service, in the Nantahala Mountains of North Carolina, USA. A 16-year study led by Nelson G. Hairston, Sr. revealed that Plethodon teyahalee and Plethodon shermani hybridized at intermediate elevations, forming a cline between 'pure' parental P. teyahalee at lower elevations and 'pure' parental P. shermani at higher elevations. From 1974 to 1990 the proportion of salamanders at the higher elevation scored as 'pure' P. shermani declined significantly, indicating that the hybrid zone was spreading upward. To date there have been no rigorous tests of hypotheses for the movement of this hybrid zone. Using temperature and precipitation data from Coweeta, I re-analyzed Hairston's data to examine whether the observed elevational shift was correlated with variation in either air temperature or precipitation from the same time period. For temperature, my analysis tracked the results of the original study: the proportion of 'pure' P. shermani at the higher elevation declined significantly with increasing mean annual temperature, whereas the proportion of 'pure' P. teyahalee at lower elevations did not. There was no discernable relationship between proportions of 'pure' individuals of either species with variation in precipitation. From 1974 to 1990, low-elevation air temperatures at the Coweeta Laboratory ranged from annual means of 11.8 to 14.2 °C, compared with a 55-year average (1936-1990) of 12.6 °C. My re-analyses indicate that the upward spread of the hybrid zone is correlated with increasing air temperatures, but not precipitation, and provide an empirical test of a hypothesis for one factor that may have influenced this movement. My results aid in understanding the potential impact that climate change may have on the ecology and evolution of terrestrial salamanders in

  12. How big is the Ocean Dead Zone off the Coast of California?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hofmann, A. F.; Peltzer, E. T.; Walz, P. M.; Brewer, P. G.

    2010-12-01

    The term “Ocean Dead Zone”, generally referring to a zone that is devoid of aerobic marine life of value to humans, is now widely used in the press and scientific literature but it appears to be not universally defined. The global assessment and monitoring of ocean dead zones, however, is of high public concern due to the considerable economic value associated with impacted fisheries and with questions over the growth of these zones forced by climate change. We report on the existence of a zone at ~850m depth off Santa Monica, California where dissolved oxygen (DO) levels are 1 μmol/kg; an order of magnitude below any existing definition of an “Ocean Dead Zone”. ROV dives show the region to be visually devoid of all aerobic marine life. But how large is this dead zone, and how may its boundaries be defined? Without an accepted definition we cannot report this nor can we compare it to other dead zones reported elsewhere in the world. “Dead zones” are now assessed solely by DO levels. A multitude of values in different units are used (Fig 1), which are clearly not universally applicable. This seriously hampers an integrated global monitoring and management effort and frustrates the development of valid connections with climate change and assessment of the consequences. Furthermore, input of anthropogenic CO2 can also stress marine life. Recent work supported by classical data suggests that higher pCO2 influences the thermodynamic energy efficiency of oxic respiration (CH2O + O2 -> CO2 + H2O). The ratio pO2/pCO2, called the respiration index (RI), emerges as the critical variable, combining the impacts of warming on DO and rising CO2 levels within a single, well defined quantity. We advocate that future monitoring efforts report pO2 and pCO2 concurrently, thus making it possible to classify, monitor and manage “dead zones” within a standard reference system that may include, as with e.g, hurricanes, differing categories of intensity. Fig.1. A DO

  13. Assessing Shifts of Mediterranean and Arid Climates Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Climate Projections in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barredo, José I.; Mauri, Achille; Caudullo, Giovanni; Dosio, Alessandro

    2018-04-01

    The Mediterranean basin is the richest biodiversity region in Europe and a global hotspot of biological diversity. In spite of that, anthropogenic climate change is one of the most serious concerns for nature conservation in this region. One of the climatic threats is represented by shifts of the Mediterranean climate and expansion of the arid climate. In this paper, we present an assessment of changes in the spatial range of the Mediterranean climate in Europe and the conversion into arid climate under different greenhouse gas forcings, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We used 11 simulations in two future 30-year periods of state-of-the-art regional climate models from EURO-CORDEX. Our results indicate that by the end of the century under RCP8.5 the present Mediterranean climate zone is projected to contract by 16%, i.e. an area ( 157,000 km2) equivalent to half the size of Italy. This compares with the less severe scenario RCP4.5 that projected only a 3% reduction. In addition, the Mediterranean climate zone is projected to expand to other zones by an area equivalent to 24 and 50% of its present extent under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Our study indicates that expansion of the arid zone is almost always the cause for contraction of the Mediterranean zone. Under RCP8.5 the arid zone is projected to increase by more than twice its present extent, equivalent to three times the size of Greece. Results of this study are useful for identifying (1) priority zones for biodiversity conservation, i.e. stable Mediterranean climate zones, (2) zones requiring assisted adaptation, such as establishment of new protected areas, implementation of buffer zones around protected areas and creating ecological corridors connecting stable Mediterranean zones.

  14. Comparing Mid-Century Climate Change Projections at Convective Resolving Scales (2-km) for Life Zones Within Puerto Rico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bowden, J.; Wootten, A.; Terando, A. J.; Boyles, R.; Misra, V.; Bhardwaj, A.

    2016-12-01

    Puerto Rico is home to over 3.5 million people and numerous endemic plant and animal species that may be at risk as a result of anthropogenic climate change. This study downscales three CMIP5 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) to a 2-km horizontal resolution using different regional climate models (RCMs) to resolve the island's climate. Here we compare projected climate change from a single GCM, CCSM4, from two RCMs centered on the mid-century, 2041-2060, for a high greenhouse gas emission scenario, RCP8.5. We will discuss similarities and differences in ecologically relevant climate variables, which were selected based on dialogue with experts who have knowledge about potential biological impacts of climate change for current life zones within Puerto Rico. Notable differences appear between the RCMs and include regions with critical ecosystems, such as the El Yunque National Forest in northeast Puerto Rico. This study helps to highlight RCMs structural uncertainty at convective resolving scales.

  15. Defining the worst case scenario for the Makran Subduction Zone: the 1008 AD tsunami

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffmann, Goesta

    2016-04-01

    correlated to the 1008 AD earthquake and tsunami inundation. The boulder deposits as well as the archaeological remains testify for a maximum tsunami runup of 15m, exceeding by far the inundation as observed in 1945. We define this as the worst case scenario for the Makran Subduction Zone. However, the return period is rather large (>500 years).

  16. Analysis of Radiant Cooling System Configurations Integrated with Cooling Tower for Different Indian Climatic Zones

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Mathur, Jyotirmay; Bhandari, Mahabir S; Jain, Robin

    Radiant cooling system has proven to be a low energy consumption system for building cooling needs. This study describes the use of cooling tower in radiant cooling system to improve the overall system efficiency. A comprehensive simulation feasibility study of the application of cooling tower in radiant cooling system was performed for the fifteen cities in different climatic zones of India. It was found that in summer, the wet bulb temperature (WBT) of the different climatic zones except warm-humid is suitable for the integration of cooling tower with radiant cooling system. In these climates, cooling tower can provide on averagemore » 24 C to 27 C water In order to achieve the energy saving potential, three different configurations of radiant cooling system have been compared in terms of energy consumption. The different configurations of the radiant cooling system integrated with cooling tower are: (1) provide chilled water to the floor, wall and ceiling mounted tubular installation. (2) provide chilled water to the wall and ceiling mounted tabular installation. In this arrangement a separate chiller has also been used to provide chilled water at 16 C to the floor mounted tubular installation. (3) provide chilled water to the wall mounted tabular installation and a separate chiller is used to provide chilled water at 16 C to the floor and ceiling mounted tabular installation. A dedicated outdoor air system is also coupled for dehumidification and ventilation in all three configurations. A conventional all-air system was simulated as a baseline to compare these configurations for assessing the energy saving potential.« less

  17. Genetic and morphological structure of a spruce hybrid (Picea sitchensis x P. glauca) zone along a climatic gradient.

    PubMed

    Hamilton, Jill A; Aitken, Sally N

    2013-08-01

    Historic colonization and contemporary evolutionary processes contribute to patterns of genetic variation and differentiation among populations. However, separating the respective influences of these processes remains a challenge, particularly for natural hybrid zones, where standing genetic variation may result from evolutionary processes both preceding and following contact, influencing the evolutionary trajectory of hybrid populations. Where adaptation to novel environments may be facilitated by interspecific hybridization, teasing apart these processes will have practical implications for forest management in changing environments. We evaluated the neutral genetic architecture of the Picea sitchensis (Sitka spruce) × P. glauca (white spruce) hybrid zone along the Nass and Skeena river valleys in northwestern British Columbia using chloroplast, mitochondrial, and nuclear microsatellite markers, in combination with cone morphological traits. Sitka spruce mitotype "capture", evidenced by this species dominating the maternal lineage, is consistent with earlier colonization of the region by Sitka spruce. This "capture" differs from the spatial distribution of chloroplast haplotypes, indicating pollen dispersal and its contribution to geographic structure. Genetic ancestry, based on nuclear markers, was strongly influenced by climate and geography. Highly parallel results for replicate transects along environmental gradients provide support for the bounded hybrid superiority model of hybrid zone maintenance. • This broad-scale analysis of neutral genetic structure indicates the importance of historic and contemporary gene flow, environmental selection, and their interaction in shaping neutral genetic variation within this hybrid zone, informative to seed transfer development and reforestation for future climates.

  18. Regional climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cabré, María Fernanda; Quénol, Hervé; Nuñez, Mario

    2016-09-01

    regions. It has been concluded that regional climate change simulations are an adequate methodology, and indeed, the MM5 regional model is an appropriate tool to be applied in viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina.

  19. Regional climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina.

    PubMed

    Cabré, María Fernanda; Quénol, Hervé; Nuñez, Mario

    2016-09-01

    regions. It has been concluded that regional climate change simulations are an adequate methodology, and indeed, the MM5 regional model is an appropriate tool to be applied in viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina.

  20. Influence of neighbourhood information on 'Local Climate Zone' mapping in heterogeneous cities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verdonck, Marie-Leen; Okujeni, Akpona; van der Linden, Sebastian; Demuzere, Matthias; De Wulf, Robert; Van Coillie, Frieke

    2017-10-01

    Local climate zone (LCZ) mapping is an emerging field in urban climate research. LCZs potentially provide an objective framework to assess urban form and function worldwide. The scheme is currently being used to globally map LCZs as a part of the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools (WUDAPT) initiative. So far, most of the LCZ maps lack proper quantitative assessment, challenging the generic character of the WUDAPT workflow. Using the standard method introduced by the WUDAPT community difficulties arose concerning the built zones due to high levels of heterogeneity. To overcome this problem a contextual classifier is adopted in the mapping process. This paper quantitatively assesses the influence of neighbourhood information on the LCZ mapping result of three cities in Belgium: Antwerp, Brussels and Ghent. Overall accuracies for the maps were respectively 85.7 ± 0.5, 79.6 ± 0.9, 90.2 ± 0.4%. The approach presented here results in overall accuracies of 93.6 ± 0.2, 92.6 ± 0.3 and 95.6 ± 0.3% for Antwerp, Brussels and Ghent. The results thus indicate a positive influence of neighbourhood information for all study areas with an increase in overall accuracies of 7.9, 13.0 and 5.4%. This paper reaches two main conclusions. Firstly, evidence was introduced on the relevance of a quantitative accuracy assessment in LCZ mapping, showing that the accuracies reported in previous papers are not easily achieved. Secondly, the method presented in this paper proves to be highly effective in Belgian cities, and given its open character shows promise for application in other heterogeneous cities worldwide.

  1. Spatial Variability of Climate Signatures Recorded in an Array of Shallow Firn Cores from the Western Greenland Percolation Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thundercloud, Z. R.; Osterberg, E. C.; Ferris, D. G.; Graeter, K.; Lewis, G.; Hawley, R. L.; Marshall, H. P.

    2016-12-01

    Greenland ice cores provide seasonally to annually resolved proxy records of past temperature, accumulation and atmospheric circulation. Most Greenland ice cores have been collected from the dry snow zone at elevations greater than 2500 m to produce records of North Atlantic paleoclimate over the last full glacial cycle. Ice cores collected from more costal regions, however, provide the opportunity to develop regional-scale records of climate conditions along ice sheet margins where recent temperature and precipitation changes have been larger than those in the ice sheet interior. These cores are more readily comparable to lake sediment and landscape (i.e. moraine) records from the ice sheet margin, and are potentially more sensitive to sea-ice variability due to the proximity to the coast. Here we present major ion and stable isotope records from an array of firn cores (40-55 year records) collected in the western Greenland percolation zone, and assess the spatial variability of ice core statistical relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Baffin Bay sea ice extent. Seven cores were collected from elevations of 2100-2500 m along a 400-km segment of the ice sheet from Dye-2 to Milcent as part of the Greenland Traverse for Accumulation and Climate Studies (GreenTrACS) project from May-June 2016. They were sampled by a continuous melter system at Dartmouth College, and analyzed using Dionex ion chromatographs and a Picarro L2130-i laser ring-down spectrometer. We focus on the signature of the NAO and Baffin Bay sea ice extent in the sea-salt, dust, deuterium excess (d-excess), and methanesulfonic acid (MSA) firn core records, and assess the special variability of these climate-ice core relationships across the study area. Climate reanalysis data indicate that NAO-ice core correlations should be stronger at lower elevation in the percolation zone than high in the dry snow zone. Our results will provide valuable insight into the sensitivity of

  2. Defining an Abrasion Index for Lunar Surface Systems as a Function of Dust Interaction Modes and Variable Concentration Zones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kobrick, Ryan L.; Klaus, David M.; Street, Kenneth W., Jr.

    2010-01-01

    Unexpected issues were encountered during the Apollo era of lunar exploration due to detrimental abrasion of materials upon exposure to the fine-grained, irregular shaped dust on the surface of the Moon. For critical design features involving contact with the lunar surface and for astronaut safety concerns, operational concepts and dust tolerance must be considered in the early phases of mission planning. To systematically define material selection criteria, dust interaction can be characterized by two-body or three-body abrasion testing, and subcategorically by physical interactions of compression, rolling, sliding and bending representing specific applications within the system. Two-body abrasion occurs when a single particle or asperity slides across a given surface removing or displacing material. Three-body abrasion occurs when multiple particles interact with a solid surface, or in between two surfaces, allowing the abrasives to freely rotate and interact with the material(s), leading to removal or displacement of mass. Different modes of interaction are described in this paper along with corresponding types of tests that can be utilized to evaluate each configuration. In addition to differential modes of abrasion, variable concentrations of dust in different zones can also be considered for a given system design and operational protocol. These zones include: (1) outside the habitat where extensive dust exposure occurs, (2) in a transitional zone such as an airlock or suitport, and (3) inside the habitat or spacesuit with a low particle count. These zones can be used to help define dust interaction frequencies, and corresponding risks to the systems and/or crew can be addressed by appropriate mitigation strategies. An abrasion index is introduced that includes the level of risk, R, the hardness of the mineralogy, H, the severity of the abrasion mode, S, and the frequency of particle interactions, F.

  3. Vadose zone microbiology

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kieft, Thomas L.; Brockman, Fred J.

    2001-01-17

    The vadose zone is defined as the portion of the terrestrial subsurface that extends from the land surface downward to the water table. As such, it comprises the surface soil (the rooting zone), the underlying subsoil, and the capillary fringe that directly overlies the water table. The unsaturated zone between the rooting zone and the capillary fringe is termed the "intermediate zone" (Chapelle, 1993). The vadose zone has also been defined as the unsaturated zone, since the sediment pores and/or rock fractures are generally not completely water filled, but instead contain both water and air. The latter characteristic results inmore » the term "zone of aeration" to describe the vadose zone. The terms "vadose zone," "unsaturated zone", and "zone of aeration" are nearly synonymous, except that the vadose zone may contain regions of perched water that are actually saturated. The term "subsoil" has also been used for studies of shallow areas of the subsurface immediately below the rooting zone. This review focuses almost exclusively on the unsaturated region beneath the soil layer since there is already an extensive body of literature on surface soil microbial communities and process, e.g., Paul and Clark (1989), Metting (1993), Richter and Markowitz, (1995), and Sylvia et al. (1998); whereas the deeper strata of the unsaturated zone have only recently come under scrutiny for their microbiological properties.« less

  4. Weathering of the New Albany Shale, Kentucky, USA: I. Weathering zones defined by mineralogy and major-element composition

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tuttle, M.L.W.; Breit, G.N.

    2009-01-01

    Comprehensive understanding of chemical and mineralogical changes induced by weathering is valuable information when considering the supply of nutrients and toxic elements from rocks. Here minerals that release and fix major elements during progressive weathering of a bed of Devonian New Albany Shale in eastern Kentucky are documented. Samples were collected from unweathered core (parent shale) and across an outcrop excavated into a hillside 40 year prior to sampling. Quantitative X-ray diffraction mineralogical data record progressive shale alteration across the outcrop. Mineral compositional changes reflect subtle alteration processes such as incongruent dissolution and cation exchange. Altered primary minerals include K-feldspars, plagioclase, calcite, pyrite, and chlorite. Secondary minerals include jarosite, gypsum, goethite, amorphous Fe(III) oxides and Fe(II)-Al sulfate salt (efflorescence). The mineralogy in weathered shale defines four weathered intervals on the outcrop-Zones A-C and soil. Alteration of the weakly weathered shale (Zone A) is attributed to the 40-a exposure of the shale. In this zone, pyrite oxidization produces acid that dissolves calcite and attacks chlorite, forming gypsum, jarosite, and minor efflorescent salt. The pre-excavation, active weathering front (Zone B) is where complete pyrite oxidation and alteration of feldspar and organic matter result in increased permeability. Acidic weathering solutions seep through the permeable shale and evaporate on the surface forming abundant efflorescent salt, jarosite and minor goethite. Intensely weathered shale (Zone C) is depleted in feldspars, chlorite, gypsum, jarosite and efflorescent salts, but has retained much of its primary quartz, illite and illite-smectite. Goethite and amorphous FE(III) oxides increase due to hydrolysis of jarosite. Enhanced permeability in this zone is due to a 14% loss of the original mass in parent shale. Denudation rates suggest that characteristics of Zone C

  5. Vulnerability of boreal zone for increased nitrogen loading due to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rankinen, Katri; Holmberg, Maria

    2016-04-01

    The observed rapid warming of the boreal zone that has been observed in Finland (0.14 °C by decade) is expected to continue (http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/). Also precipitation is assumed to increase in future. These changes may increase nitrogen (N) loading from terrestrial environments to water bodies by accelerating soil organic matter decay and by increasing runoff. Nitrogen is limiting nutrient in the Baltic Sea but also in some lakes, so increased loading may increase eutrophication. Further, high nitrate levels in drinking water may cause methaemoglobin anemia for humans, and nitrate is also connected to increased risk of diabetes and cancer. Thus EU has set upper limits to nitrate concentration in drinking water. MONIMET (LIFE12 ENV/FI/000409) is a project about Climate Change Indicators and Vulnerability of Boreal Zone. We simulated N loading from two boreal catchments to the receiving waters by the dynamic, catchment scale model INCA in different climate change and land use change scenarios. We calculated land use specific N loading values for these two well monitored catchments that belong to the LTER (The Long Term Ecological Research) monitoring network. We upscaled the results to the larger river basin, combining them with the information on drinking water supply to assess the vulnerability. Specific emphasis was paid on nitrate concentrations in soil water and groundwater. In general, land use change has higher influence on N loading than increase in precipitation and temperature alone. Peak runoff will sift from snow melting peak in April to late autumn and winter. Growing season will become longer allowing more efficient vegetation uptake of nutrients. Small groundwater aquifers and private wells in the middle of agricultural fields will be in the risk of increased N concentrations, if agricultural N loading increases due to changes in agricultural patterns and land use change.

  6. Habitable Zone Evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waltham, D.; Lota, J.

    2012-12-01

    The location of the habitable zone around a star depends upon stellar luminosity and upon the properties of a potentially habitable planet such as its mass and near-surface volatile inventory. Stellar luminosity generally increases as a star ages whilst planetary properties change through time as a consequence of biological and geological evolution. Hence, the location of the habitable zone changes through time as a result of both stellar evolution and planetary evolution. Using the Earth's Phanerozoic temperature history as a constraint, it is shown that changes in our own habitable zone over the last 540 My have been dominated by planetary evolution rather than solar evolution. Furthermore, sparse data from earlier times suggests that planetary evolution may have dominated habitable zone development throughout our biosphere's history. Hence, the existence of a continuously habitable zone depends upon accidents of complex bio-geochemical evolution more than it does upon relatively simple stellar-evolution. Evolution of the inner margin of the habitable zone through time using three different estimates for climate sensitivity. The dashed line shows a typical predicted evolution assuming this was driven simply by a steady increase in solar luminosity. Solar evolution does not account for the observations. Evolution of the outer margin of the habitable zone through time using three different estimates for climate sensitivity. The dashed line shows a typical predicted evolution assuming this was driven simply by a steady increase in solar luminosity. Solar evolution does not account for the observations.

  7. Characteristics of vegetation activity and its responses to climate change in desert/grassland biome transition zones in the last 30 years based on GIMMS3g

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hou, Jing; Du, Lingtong; Liu, Ke; Hu, Yue; Zhu, Yuguo

    2018-06-01

    The vegetation in desert/grassland biome transition zones is part of a fragile ecosystem that is sensitive to climate change. Thus, in recent decades, studying vegetation activity in desert/grassland biome transition zones has become important. Here, vegetation activity and the evolutionary tendencies of the temporal and spatial differentiation of the phenology of the desert/grassland biome transition zones were analyzed based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of the third-generation Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS3g) dataset. Additionally, the relationship between vegetation activity and climatic factors was analyzed based on NDVI and global meteorological reanalysis data. The results showed that the vegetation phenology of desert/grassland biome transition zones exhibits sharply contrasting characteristics between the Northern and Southern hemispheres, particularly when comparing differences before and after the breakpoint in global climate change (1998). The length of the growing season (LOS) of the Northern Hemisphere was shorter after 1998 than before it, and the integral of the growing season (IOS) of the NDVI decreased correspondingly. By contrast, the LOS in the Southern Hemisphere was longer, and after 1998, the IOS of the NDVI increased compared to its previous value. The vegetation activity trend and the fluctuation of the desert/grassland biome transition zones in the last 30 years can be divided into nine combined modes. However, these features also have an obvious turning point in 1998. The effects of evapotranspiration and precipitation on vegetation activity were most obvious, and these climatic factors drove the phenology changes in the different regions. Global warming limited the vegetation activity in low-latitude areas, but promoted it in middle-latitude areas.

  8. Screening high oleaginous Chlorella strains from different climate zones.

    PubMed

    Xu, Jin; Hu, Hanhua

    2013-09-01

    In outdoor cultivation, screening strains adapted to a wide temperature range or suitable strains for different environmental temperatures is of great importance. In this study, triacylglycerol (TAG) content of 23 oil-producing Chlorella strains from different climate zones were analyzed by thin layer chromatography. Four selected Chlorella strains (NJ-18, NJ-7, NMX35N and NMX139N) with rather high TAG content had higher total lipid content compared with Chlorella vulgaris SAG 211-11b. In particular, NJ-18 displayed the highest TAG productivity among the four high oil-producing Chlorella strains. Accumulation of TAGs in strain NMX35N changed a little from 30 to 40°C, showing a desirable characteristic of accumulating TAGs at high temperatures. Our results demonstrated that NJ-18 and NMX35N had suitable fatty acid profiles and good adaption to low and high temperatures respectively. Therefore, cultivation of the two Chlorella strains together might be a good option for economic biodiesel production during the whole seasons of the year. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Current Climate Variability & Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diem, J.; Criswell, B.; Elliott, W. C.

    2013-12-01

    Current Climate Variability & Change is the ninth among a suite of ten interconnected, sequential labs that address all 39 climate-literacy concepts in the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences. The labs are as follows: Solar Radiation & Seasons, Stratospheric Ozone, The Troposphere, The Carbon Cycle, Global Surface Temperature, Glacial-Interglacial Cycles, Temperature Changes over the Past Millennium, Climates & Ecosystems, Current Climate Variability & Change, and Future Climate Change. All are inquiry-based, on-line products designed in a way that enables students to construct their own knowledge of a topic. Questions representative of various levels of Webb's depth of knowledge are embedded in each lab. In addition to the embedded questions, each lab has three or four essential questions related to the driving questions for the lab suite. These essential questions are presented as statements at the beginning of the material to represent the lab objectives, and then are asked at the end as questions to function as a summative assessment. For example, the Current Climate Variability & Change is built around these essential questions: (1) What has happened to the global temperature at the Earth's surface, in the middle troposphere, and in the lower stratosphere over the past several decades?; (2) What is the most likely cause of the changes in global temperature over the past several decades and what evidence is there that this is the cause?; and (3) What have been some of the clearly defined effects of the change in global temperature on the atmosphere and other spheres of the Earth system? An introductory Prezi allows the instructor to assess students' prior knowledge in relation to these questions, while also providing 'hooks' to pique their interest related to the topic. The lab begins by presenting examples of and key differences between climate variability (e.g., Mt. Pinatubo eruption) and

  10. Viticultural zoning of Graciosa island of the Azores archipelago - Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madruga, João; Reis, Francisco; Felipe, João; Azevedo, Eduardo; Pinheiro, Jorge

    2016-04-01

    The management and sustainability of the traditional vineyards of the Azores settled on lava field terrains is strongly affected by practical limitations of mechanization and high demand on man labor imposed by the typical micro parcel structure of the vineyards. In a recent macrozoning approach study Madruga et al (2015) showed that besides the traditional vineyards there are significant areas in some of the Azores islands whose soils, climate and physiographic characteristics indicate a potential for the development of new vineyard areas offering conditions for better management and sustainability. The objective of this study was to conduct a detailed viticultural zoning at the level of the small mapscale (smaller than 1:25,000), for the island of Graciosa where, besides the traditional lava field terroir, there are also some localized experiences of grapevine production over normal soils, offering thus some comparative information on this type of production conditions. The zoning approach for the present study was based in a geographic information system (GIS) analysis incorporating factors related to climate and topography which was then combined with the soil mapping units fulfilling the suitable criteria concerning the soil properties taken as the most relevant for viticulture, being the result a map of homogeneous environmental units. The climatic zoning examined the direct quantitative variables (precipitation, temperature, evaporation) in relation to climate index, bioclimatic and viticultural specific values. Topography (elevation, slope, aspect, orientation) was analyzed based on the tridimensional models of the islands in GIS to include the best slopes for the mechanization of the vineyard cultural operations (0-15%). Soils were analyzed based on data and soil map units as defined in the soil surveys of the Azores archipelago. The soil properties taken for the analysis and definition of the potential vineyard areas were drainage, water holding capacity

  11. What's New | USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map

    Science.gov Websites

    water may provide milder winter weather and be in a warmer zone. Climate Change Climate changes are year), changes in zones are not reliable evidence of whether there has been global warming. Compared a result of a more recent averaging period (1974-1986 vs. 1976-2005). However, some of the changes

  12. Environmental Survival of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in Different Climatic Zones of Eastern Australia

    PubMed Central

    Begg, Douglas J.; Dhand, Navneet K.; Watt, Bruce; Whittington, Richard J.

    2014-01-01

    The duration of survival of both the S and C strains of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in feces was quantified in contrasting climatic zones of New South Wales, Australia, and detailed environmental temperature data were collected. Known concentrations of S and C strains in feces placed on soil in polystyrene boxes were exposed to the environment with or without the provision of shade (70%) at Bathurst, Armidale, Condobolin, and Broken Hill, and subsamples taken every 2 weeks were cultured for the presence of M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis. The duration of survival ranged from a minimum of 1 week to a maximum of 16 weeks, and the provision of 70% shade was the most important factor in extending the survival time. The hazard of death for exposed compared to shaded samples was 20 and 9 times higher for the S and C strains, respectively. Site did not affect the survival of the C strain, but for the S strain, the hazard of death was 2.3 times higher at the two arid zone sites (Broken Hill and Condobolin) than at the two temperate zone sites (Bathurst and Armidale). Temperature measurements revealed maximum temperatures exceeding 60°C and large daily temperature ranges at the soil surface, particularly in exposed boxes. PMID:24463974

  13. Coral oxygen isotope records of interdecadal climate variations in the South Pacific Convergence Zone region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bagnato, Stefan; Linsley, Braddock K.; Howe, Stephen S.; Wellington, Gerard M.; Salinger, Jim

    2005-06-01

    The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), a region of high rainfall, is a major feature of subtropical Southern Hemisphere climate and contributes to and interacts with circulation features across the Pacific, yet its past temporal variability and forcing remain only partially understood. Here we compare coral oxygen isotopic (δ18O) series (spanning A.D. 1997-1780 and A.D. 2001-1776) from two genera of hermatypic corals in Fiji, located within the SPCZ, to examine the fidelity of these corals in recording climate change and SPCZ interdecadal dynamics. One of these coral records is a new 225-year subannually resolved δ18O series from the massive coral Diploastreaheliopora. Diploastrea's use in climate reconstructions is still relatively new, but this coral has shown encouragingly similar interannual variability to Porites, the coral genus most commonly used in Pacific paleoclimate studies. In Fiji we observe that interdecadal δ18O variance is also similar in these two coral genera, and Diploastrea contains a larger-amplitude interdecadal signal that more closely tracks instrumental-based indices of Pacific interdecadal climate change and the SPCZ than Porites. Both coral δ18O series record greater interdecadal variability from ˜1880 to 1950, which is consistent with the observations of Folland et al. (2002), who reported higher variability in SPCZ position before 1945. These observations indicate that Diploastrea will likely provide a significant new source of long-term climate information from the SPCZ region.

  14. Defining Canadian Perspectives on Climate Change Science and Solutions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rieger, C.; Byrne, J. M.

    2014-12-01

    Despite the overwhelming scientific evidence of potentially disastrous change in global climate, little is being accomplished in climate mitigation or adaptation in Canada. The energy sector in Canada is still primarily oil and gas, with huge tax breaks to the industry in spite of well known harmful regional and global impacts of fossil fuel pollution. One of the largest concerns for the climate science community is the variable and often complacent attitude many Canadians share on the issue of climate change. The objective herein is twofold: (1) a survey tool will be used to assess the views and opinions of Canadians on climate change science and solutions; (2) develop better communication methods for industry, government and NGOs to share the science and solutions with the public. The study results will inform the Canadian public, policy makers and industry of practical, effective changes needed to address climate change challenges. A survey of Canadians' perspectives is an important step in policy changing research. The climate research and application community must know the most effective ways to communicate the science and solutions with a public that is often resistant to change. The AGU presentation will feature the results of the survey, while continued work into 2015 will be towards advancing communication. This study is both timely and crucial for science communicators in understanding how Canadians view climate change, considering, for example, devastatingly extreme weather being experienced of late and its effect on the economy. The results will assist in recognizing how to encourage Canadians to work towards a more sustainable and resilient energy sector in Canada and abroad.

  15. Attributing the effects of climate on phenology change suggests high sensitivity in coastal zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seyednasrollah, B.; Clark, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    The impact of climate change on spring phenology depends on many variables that cannot be separated using current models. Phenology can influence carbon sequestration, plant nutrition, forest health, and species distributions. Leaf phenology is sensitive to changes of environmental factors, including climate, species composition, latitude, and solar radiation. The many variables and their interactions frustrate efforts to attribute variation to climate change. We developed a Bayesian framework to quantify the influence of environment on the speed of forest green-up. This study presents a state-space hierarchical model to infer and predict change in forest greenness over time using satellite observations and ground measurements. The framework accommodates both observation and process errors and it allows for main effects of variables and their interactions. We used daily spaceborne remotely sensed data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to quantify temporal variability in the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) along a habitat gradient in the Southeastern United States. The ground measurements of meteorological parameters are obtained from study sites located in the Appalachian Mountains, the Piedmont and the Atlantic Coastal Plain between years 2000 and 2015. Results suggest that warming accelerates spring green-up in the Coastal Plain to a greater degree than in the Piedmont and Appalachian. In other words, regardless of variation in the timing of spring onset, the rate of greenness in non-coastal zones decreases with increasing temperature and hence with time over the spring transitional period. However, in coastal zones, as air temperature increases, leaf expansion becomes faster. This may indicate relative vulnerability to warming in non-coastal regions where moisture could be a limiting factor, whereas high temperatures in regions close to the coast enhance forest physiological activities. Model predictions agree with the remotely

  16. Spatial variation in the storages and age-related dynamics of forest carbon sequestration in different climate zones-evidence from black locust plantations on the Loess Plateau of China.

    PubMed

    Li, Taijun; Ren, Bowen; Wang, Dahui; Liu, Guobin

    2015-01-01

    Knowledge about the long-term influences of climate change on the amount of potential carbon (C) sequestration in forest ecosystems, including age-related dynamics, remains unclear. This study used two similar age-sequences of black locust forests (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) in the semi-arid and semi-humid zones of China's Loess Plateau to assess the variation in C stocks and age-related dynamics. Our results demonstrated that black locust forests of the semi-humid zone stored significantly more C than did forests in the semi-arid zone, across the chronosequence (p < 0.001). The C carrying capacity of the plantations was measured at 166.4 Mg C ha-1 (1 Mg = 106 g) in the semi-humid zone, while the semi-arid zone had a capacity of only 79.4 Mg C ha-1. Soil organic C (SOC) increased continuously with stand age in the semi-arid zone (R2 = 0.84, p = 0.010). However, in the semi-humid zone, SOC declined sharply by 47.8% after the initial stage (5 to 10 y). The C stock in trees increased continuously with stand age in the semi-humid zone (R2 = 0.83, p = 0.011), yet in the semi-arid zone, it decreased dramatically from 43.0 Mg C ha-1 to 28.4 Mg C ha-1 during the old forest stage (38 to 56 y). The shift from being a net C sink to a net C source occurred at the initial stage in the semi-humid zone versus at the old forest stage in the semi-arid zone after reforestation. Surprisingly, with the exception of the initial and later stages (55 y), the patterns of C allocation among trees, soils, understory and litter were not statistically different between the two climate zones. Our results suggest that climate factors can alter the potential amount and age-related dynamics of forest C sequestration.

  17. Predicting Pleistocene climate from vegetation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loehle, C.

    2006-10-01

    Climates at the Last Glacial Maximum have been inferred from fossil pollen assemblages, but these inferred climates are colder than those produced by climate simulations. Biogeographic evidence also argues against these inferred cold climates. The recolonization of glaciated zones in eastern North America following the last ice age produced distinct biogeographic patterns. It has been assumed that a wide zone south of the ice was tundra or boreal parkland (Boreal-Parkland Zone or BPZ), which would have been recolonized from southern refugia as the ice melted, but the patterns in this zone differ from those in the glaciated zone, which creates a major biogeographic anomaly. In the glacial zone, there are few endemics but in the BPZ there are many across multiple taxa. In the glacial zone, there are the expected gradients of genetic diversity with distance from the ice-free zone, but no evidence of this is found in the BPZ. Many races and related species exist in the BPZ which would have merged or hybridized if confined to the same refugia. Evidence for distinct southern refugia for most temperate species is lacking. Extinctions of temperate flora were rare. The interpretation of spruce as a boreal climate indicator may be mistaken over much of the region if the spruce was actually an extinct temperate species. All of these anomalies call into question the concept that climates in the zone south of the ice were very cold or that temperate species had to migrate far to the south. Similar anomalies exist in Europe and on tropical mountains. An alternate hypothesis is that low CO2 levels gave an advantage to pine and spruce, which are the dominant trees in the BPZ, and to herbaceous species over trees, which also fits the observed pattern. Most temperate species could have survived across their current ranges at lower abundance by retreating to moist microsites. These would be microrefugia not easily detected by pollen records, especially if most species became rare

  18. Climate-Induced Larch Growth Response Within the Central Siberian Permafrost Zone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kharuk, Viacheslav I.; Ranson, Kenneth J.; Im, Sergei T.; Petrov, Il'ya A.

    2015-01-01

    Aim: estimation of larch (Larix gmelinii) growth response to current climate changes. Location: permafrost area within the northern part of Central Siberia (approximately 65.8 deg N, 98.5 deg E). Method: analysis of dendrochronological data, climate variables, drought index SPEI, GPP (gross primary production) and EVI vegetation index (both Aqua/MODIS satellite derived), and soil water content anomalies (GRACE satellite measurements of equivalent water thickness anomalies, EWTA). Results: larch tree ring width (TRW) correlated with previous year August precipitation (r = 0.63), snow accumulation (r = 0.61), soil water anomalies (r = 0.79), early summer temperatures and water vapor pressure (r = 0.73 and r = 0.69, respectively), May and June drought index (r = 0.68-0.82). There are significant positive trends of TRW since late 1980s and GPP since the year 2000. Mean TRW increased by about 50%, which is similar to post-Little Ice Age warming. TRW correlated with GPP and EVI of larch stands (r = 0.68-0.69). Main conclusions: within the permafrost zone of central Siberia larch TRW growth is limited by early summer temperatures, available water from snowmelt, water accumulated within soil in the previous year, and permafrost thaw water. Water stress is one of the limiting factors of larch growth. Larch TRW growth and GPP increased during recent decades.

  19. Climate-Induced Landsliding within the Larch Dominant Permafrost Zone of Central Siberia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kharuk, Viacheslav I.; Shushpanov, Alexandr S.; Im, Sergei T.; Ranson, Kenneth J.

    2016-01-01

    Climate impact on landslide occurrence and spatial patterns were analyzed within the larch-dominant communities associated with continuous permafrost areas of central Siberia. We used high resolution satellite imagery (i.e. QuickBird, WorldView) to identify landslide scars over an area of 62 000 km2. Landslide occurrence was analyzed with respect to climate variables (air temperature, precipitation, drought index SPEI), and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite derived equivalent of water thickness anomalies (EWTA). Landslides were found only on southward facing slopes, and the occurrence of landslides increased exponentially with increasing slope steepness. Lengths of landslides correlated positively with slope steepness. The observed upper elevation limit of landslides tended to coincide with the tree line. Observations revealed landslides occurrence was also found to be strongly correlated with August precipitation (r = 0.81) and drought index (r = 0.7), with June-July-August soil water anomalies (i.e., EWTA, r = 0.68-0.7), and number of thawing days (i.e., a number of days with t (max) > 0 deg C; r = 0.67). A significant increase in the variance of soil water anomalies was observed, indicating that occurrence of landslides may increase even with a stable mean precipitation level. The key-findings of this study are (1) landslides occurrence increased within the permafrost zone of central Siberia in the beginning of the 21st century; (2) the main cause of increased landslides occurrence are extremes in precipitation and soil water anomalies; and (3) landslides occurrence are strongly dependent on relief features such as southward facing steep slopes.

  20. Functional homogeneous zones (fHZs) in viticultural zoning procedure: an Italian case study on Aglianico vine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonfante, A.; Agrillo, A.; Albrizio, R.; Basile, A.; Buonomo, R.; De Mascellis, R.; Gambuti, A.; Giorio, P.; Guida, G.; Langella, G.; Manna, P.; Minieri, L.; Moio, L.; Siani, T.; Terribile, F.

    2015-06-01

    This paper aims to test a new physically oriented approach to viticulture zoning at farm scale that is strongly rooted in hydropedology and aims to achieve a better use of environmental features with respect to plant requirements and wine production. The physics of our approach are defined by the use of soil-plant-atmosphere simulation models, applying physically based equations to describe the soil hydrological processes and solve soil-plant water status. This study (part of the ZOVISA project) was conducted on a farm devoted to production of high-quality wines (Aglianico DOC), located in southern Italy (Campania region, Mirabella Eclano, AV). The soil spatial distribution was obtained after standard soil survey informed by geophysical survey. Two homogeneous zones (HZs) were identified; in each one a physically based model was applied to solve the soil water balance and estimate the soil functional behaviour (crop water stress index, CWSI) defining the functional homogeneous zones (fHZs). For the second process, experimental plots were established and monitored for investigating soil-plant water status, crop development (biometric and physiological parameters) and daily climate variables (temperature, solar radiation, rainfall, wind). The effects of crop water status on crop response over must and wine quality were then evaluated in the fHZs. This was performed by comparing crop water stress with (i) crop physiological measurement (leaf gas exchange, chlorophyll a fluorescence, leaf water potential, chlorophyll content, leaf area index (LAI) measurement), (ii) grape bunches measurements (berry weight, sugar content, titratable acidity, etc.) and (iii) wine quality (aromatic response). This experiment proved the usefulness of the physically based approach, also in the case of mapping viticulture microzoning.

  1. An interactive method for digitizing zone maps

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Giddings, L. E.; Thompson, E. J.

    1975-01-01

    A method is presented for digitizing maps that consist of zones, such as contour or climatic zone maps. A color-coded map is prepared by any convenient process. The map is then read into memory of an Image 100 computer by means of its table scanner, using colored filters. Zones are separated and stored in themes, using standard classification procedures. Thematic data are written on magnetic tape and these data, appropriately coded, are combined to make a digitized image on tape. Step-by-step procedures are given for digitization of crop moisture index maps with this procedure. In addition, a complete example of the digitization of a climatic zone map is given.

  2. Morphological Adaptations for Digging and Climate-Impacted Soil Properties Define Pocket Gopher (Thomomys spp.) Distributions

    PubMed Central

    Marcy, Ariel E.; Fendorf, Scott; Patton, James L.; Hadly, Elizabeth A.

    2013-01-01

    Species ranges are mediated by physiology, environmental factors, and competition with other organisms. The allopatric distribution of five species of northern Californian pocket gophers (Thomomys spp.) is hypothesized to result from competitive exclusion. The five species in this environmentally heterogeneous region separate into two subgenera, Thomomys or Megascapheus, which have divergent digging styles. While all pocket gophers dig with their claws, the tooth-digging adaptations of subgenus Megascapheus allow access to harder soils and climate-protected depths. In a Northern Californian locality, replacement of subgenus Thomomys with subgenus Megascapheus occurred gradually during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition. Concurrent climate change over this transition suggests that environmental factors – in addition to soil – define pocket gopher distributional limits. Here we show 1) that all pocket gophers occupy the subset of less energetically costly soils and 2) that subgenera sort by percent soil clay, bulk density, and shrink-swell capacity (a mineralogical attribute). While clay and bulk density (without major perturbations) stay constant over decades to millennia, low precipitation and high temperatures can cause shrink-swell clays to crack and harden within days. The strong yet underappreciated interaction between soil and moisture on the distribution of vertebrates is rarely considered when projecting species responses to climatic change. Furthermore, increased precipitation alters the weathering processes that create shrink-swell minerals. Two projected outcomes of ongoing climate change—higher temperatures and precipitation—will dramatically impact hardness of soil with shrink-swell minerals. Current climate models do not include factors controlling soil hardness, despite its impact on all organisms that depend on a stable soil structure. PMID:23717675

  3. NDVI dynamics of the taiga zone in connection with modern climate changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bobkov, A.; Panidi, E.; Torlopova, N.; Tsepelev, V.

    2015-04-01

    This research is dedicated to the investigation of the relations between the XXI century climate changes and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) variability of the taiga zone. For this purposes was used the observations of vegetation variability on the test area located nearby Syktyvkar city (Komi Republic, Russia), 16-day averages of NDVI data derived from TERRA/MODIS space imagery (spatial resolution is about 250 meters), and the air temperature and precipitation observations from Syktyvkar meteorological station. The research results confirmed the statistically significant positive correlation between NDVI and air temperature for all vegetation types of the test area, for both spring and autumn seasons. The weakest correlation was found for coniferous forest, namely, pine forest on poor soils, and the strongest correlation was found for meadows and bogs. Additionally the map of NDVI trends of the test area shows that the sectors of greatest positive trend located on the territories with non-forest cover, and as a result, the positive trend of air temperature is indicated most brightly on vegetation of non-forest lands. Thereby these lands can serve as climate changes indicator in the investigated region. The study was partially supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR), research project No. 14-05-00858 a.

  4. Variations in the kinematics of deformation along the Zagros inclined transpression zone, Iran: Implications for defining a curved inclined transpression zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarkarinejad, Khalil; Partabian, Abdolreza; Faghih, Ali

    2013-03-01

    The combination of inclined collision and plate boundary shape can control the nature of deformation and the sense of shear along a transpression zone. The present study investigated the effects of a boundary zone with curvilinear shape along a transpression zone on the kinematics of deformation. The kinematics of the Zagros transpression zone varies with the orientation of the zone boundary. Detailed structural and microstructural studies showed sinistral sense of shear on the southeastern part of the Zagros inclined transpression zone (Fars Arc), but dextral sense of shear on the northwestern part of the zone. It is inferred that the both senses of shear were developed coevally under a bulk general shear, regional-scale deformation along a curved inclined transpression miming the shape of the Fras Arc of the Zagros and the reentrant of the Bandar Abbas Syntaxis. The Zagros transpression zone formed by inclined continental collision between the Afro-Arabian continent and Iranian microcontinent.

  5. Pace of shifts in climate regions increases with global temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahlstein, Irina; Daniel, John S.; Solomon, Susan

    2013-08-01

    Human-induced climate change causes significant changes in local climates, which in turn lead to changes in regional climate zones. Large shifts in the world distribution of Köppen-Geiger climate classifications by the end of this century have been projected. However, only a few studies have analysed the pace of these shifts in climate zones, and none has analysed whether the pace itself changes with increasing global mean temperature. In this study, pace refers to the rate at which climate zones change as a function of amount of global warming. Here we show that present climate projections suggest that the pace of shifting climate zones increases approximately linearly with increasing global temperature. Using the RCP8.5 emissions pathway, the pace nearly doubles by the end of this century and about 20% of all land area undergoes a change in its original climate. This implies that species will have increasingly less time to adapt to Köppen zone changes in the future, which is expected to increase the risk of extinction.

  6. Evolution of Root Zone Storage after Land Use Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nijzink, R.; Hutton, C.; Capell, R.; Pechlivanidis, I.; Hrachowitz, M.; Savenije, H.

    2015-12-01

    It has been acknowledged for some time that a coupling exists between vegetation, climate and hydrological processes (e.g. Eagleson, 1982a, Rodriguez-Iturbe,2001 ). Recently, Gao et al.(2014) demonstrated that one of the core parameters of hydrological functioning, the catchment-scale root zone water storage capacity, can be estimated based on climate data alone. It was shown that ecosystems develop root zone storage capacities that allow vegetation to bridge droughts with return periods of about 20 years. As a consequence, assuming that the evaporative demand determines the root zone storage capacity, land use changes, such as deforestation, should have an effect on the development of this capacity . In this study it was tested to which extent deforestation affects root zone storage capacities. To do so, four different hydrological models were calibrated in a moving window approach after deforestation occurred. In this way, model based estimates of the storage capacity in time were obtained. This was compared with short term estimates of root zone storage capacities based on a climate based method similar to Gao et al.(2014). In addition, the equilibrium root zone storage capacity was determined with the total time series of an unaffected control catchment. Preliminary results indicate that models tend to adjust their storage capacity to the values found by the climate based method. This is strong evidence that the root zone storage is determined by the evaporative demand of vegetation. Besides, root zones storage capacities develop towards an equilibrium value where the ecosystem is in balance, further highlighting the evolving, time dynamic character of hydrological systems.

  7. European Regional Climate Zone Modeling of a Commercial Absorption Heat Pump Hot Water Heater

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Sharma, Vishaldeep; Shen, Bo; Keinath, Chris

    2017-01-01

    High efficiency gas-burning hot water heating takes advantage of a condensing heat exchanger to deliver improved combustion efficiency over a standard non-condensing configuration. The water heating is always lower than the gas heating value. In contrast, Gas Absorption Heat Pump (GAHP) hot water heating combines the efficiency of gas burning with the performance increase from a heat pump to offer significant gas energy savings. An ammonia-water system also has the advantage of zero Ozone Depletion Potential and low Global Warming Potential. In comparison with air source electric heat pumps, the absorption system can maintain higher coefficients of performance in coldermore » climates. In this work, a GAHP commercial water heating system was compared to a condensing gas storage system for a range of locations and climate zones across Europe. The thermodynamic performance map of a single effect ammonia-water absorption system was used in a building energy modeling software that could also incorporate the changing ambient air temperature and water mains temperature for a specific location, as well as a full-service restaurant water draw pattern.« less

  8. Comparative Climates of the Trappist-1 Planetary System: Results from a Simple Climate-vegetation Model

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Alberti, Tommaso; Carbone, Vincenzo; Lepreti, Fabio

    The recent discovery of the planetary system hosted by the ultracool dwarf star TRAPPIST-1 could open new paths for investigations of the planetary climates of Earth-sized exoplanets, their atmospheres, and their possible habitability. In this paper, we use a simple climate-vegetation energy-balance model to study the climate of the seven TRAPPIST-1 planets and the climate dependence on various factors: the global albedo, the fraction of vegetation that could cover their surfaces, and the different greenhouse conditions. The model allows us to investigate whether liquid water could be maintained on the planetary surfaces (i.e., by defining a “surface water zone (SWZ)”)more » in different planetary conditions, with or without the presence of a greenhouse effect. It is shown that planet TRAPPIST-1d seems to be the most stable from an Earth-like perspective, since it resides in the SWZ for a wide range of reasonable values of the model parameters. Moreover, according to the model, outer planets (f, g, and h) cannot host liquid water on their surfaces, even with Earth-like conditions, entering a snowball state. Although very simple, the model allows us to extract the main features of the TRAPPIST-1 planetary climates.« less

  9. Comparative transcriptome analysis of ginger variety Suprabha from two different agro-climatic zones of Odisha.

    PubMed

    Gaur, Mahendra; Das, Aradhana; Sahoo, Rajesh Kumar; Mohanty, Sujata; Joshi, Raj Kumar; Subudhi, Enketeswara

    2016-09-01

    Ginger (Zingiber officinale Rosc.), a well-known member of family Zingiberaceae, is bestowed with number of medicinal properties which is because of the secondary metabolites, essential oil and oleoresin, it contains in its rhizome. The drug yielding potential is known to depend on agro-climatic conditions prevailing at the place cultivation. Present study deals with comparative transcriptome analysis of two sample of elite ginger variety Suprabha collected from two different agro-climatic zones of Odisha. Transcriptome assembly for both the samples was done using next generation sequencing methodology. The raw data of size 10.8 and 11.8 GB obtained from analysis of two rhizomes S1Z4 and S2Z5 collected from Bhubaneswar and Koraput and are available in NCBI accession number SAMN03761169 and SAMN03761176 respectively. We identified 60,452 and 54,748 transcripts using trinity tool respectively from ginger rhizome of S1Z4 and S2Z5. The transcript length varied from 300 bp to 15,213 bp and 8988 bp and N50 value of 1415 bp and 1334 bp respectively for S1Z4 and S2Z5. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first comparative transcriptome analysis of elite ginger cultivars Suprabha from two different agro-climatic conditions of Odisha, India which will help to understand the effect of agro-climatic conditions on differential expression of secondary metabolites.

  10. Rivers of the Andes and the Amazon Basin: Deciphering global change from the hydroclimatic variability in the critical zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreira-Turcq, Patricia; Carlo Espinoza, Jhan; Filizola, Naziano; Martinez, Jean-Michel

    2018-01-01

    The Critical Zone has been defined as the thin layer of the continental surfaces extending from fresh bedrock and the bottom of groundwater up to vegetation canopy, where soil, rock, water, air, and living organisms interact (Banwart et al., 2012; Lin et al., 2011). Despite the Critical Zone's importance to terrestrial life, it remains poorly understood. In this context, understanding the complex interactions between physical, chemical, and biological processes of the Critical Zone requires long-term observations (Anderson et al., 2012; Brantley et al., 2017), not only because different mechanisms have varying time frames, but also because it is necessary to monitor its natural and anthropogenic evolution in response to global climate and environmental changes.

  11. Patterns of genetic and morphometric diversity in baobab (Adansonia digitata) populations across different climatic zones of Benin (West Africa).

    PubMed

    Assogbadjo, A E; Kyndt, T; Sinsin, B; Gheysen, G; van Damme, P

    2006-05-01

    Baobab (Adansonia digitata) is a multi-purpose tree used daily by rural African communities. The present study aimed at investigating the level of morphometric and genetic variation and spatial genetic structure within and between threatened baobab populations from the three climatic zones of Benin. A total of 137 individuals from six populations were analysed using morphometric data as well as molecular marker data generated using the AFLP technique. Five primer pairs resulted in a total of 217 scored bands with 78.34 % of them being polymorphic. A two-level AMOVA of 137 individuals from six baobab populations revealed 82.37 % of the total variation within populations and 17.63 % among populations (P < 0.001). Analysis of population structure with allele-frequency based F-statistics revealed a global F(ST) of 0.127 +/- 0.072 (P < 0.001). The mean gene diversity within populations (H(S)) and the average gene diversity between populations (D(ST)) were estimated at 0.309 +/- 0.000 and 0.045 +/- 0.072, respectively. Baobabs in the Sudanian and Sudan-Guinean zones of Benin were short and produced the highest yields of pulp, seeds and kernels, in contrast to the ones in the Guinean zone, which were tall and produced only a small number of fruits with a low pulp, seed and kernel productivity. A statistically significant correlation with the observed patterns of genetic diversity was observed for three morphological characteristics: height of the trees, number of branches and thickness of the capsules. The results indicate some degree of physical isolation of the populations collected in the different climatic zones and suggest a substantial amount of genetic structuring between the analysed populations of baobab. Sampling options of the natural populations are suggested for in or ex situ conservation.

  12. Rising Temperatures and Dwindling Water Supplies? Perception of Climate Change Among Residents of the Spanish Mediterranean Tourist Coastal Areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    March, Hug; Saurí, David; Olcina, Jorge

    2014-01-01

    In this article, we discuss the results of a survey on the perception of climate change in the 14 "tourist zones" (as defined by the Spanish Statistical Institute, INE) that stretch from the French border to Gibraltar alongside the Spanish Mediterranean coast, including the Balearic Islands. Our sample consisted of 1,014 telephone interviews stratified according to the number of tourists staying in each zone. Respondents showed concern for the likely impacts of climate change on jobs and thought that climate change would reduce the economic activity of their areas. Responses were also pessimistic regarding future water availability but agreed with the development of alternative sources such as desalination and water re-use. Household size, educational levels, and employment tended to be the most significant statistical explanatory factors regarding attitudes toward climate change. Respondents in larger households (a variable not tested in the literature as far as we know), respondents with higher education, and respondents working for a wage tended to express more concerns than the rest.

  13. Shallow aquifer response to climate change scenarios in a small catchment in the Guarani Aquifer outcrop zone.

    PubMed

    Melo, Davi C D; Wendland, Edson

    2017-05-01

    Water availability restrictions are already a reality in several countries. This issue is likely to worsen due to climate change, predicted for the upcoming decades. This study aims to estimate the impacts of climate change on groundwater system in the Guarani Aquifer outcrop zone. Global Climate Models (GCM) outputs were used as inputs to a water balance model, which produced recharge estimates for the groundwater model. Recharge was estimated across different land use types considering a control period from 2004 to 2014, and a future period from 2081 to 2099. Major changes in monthly rainfall means are expected to take place in dry seasons. Most of the analysed scenarios predict increase of more than 2 ºC in monthly mean temperatures. Comparing the control and future runs, our results showed a mean recharge change among scenarios that ranged from ~-80 to ~+60%, depending on the land use type. As a result of such decrease in recharge rates, the response given by the groundwater model indicates a lowering of the water table under most scenarios.

  14. Mortality during a Large-Scale Heat Wave by Place, Demographic Group, Internal and External Causes of Death, and Building Climate Zone

    PubMed Central

    Joe, Lauren; Hoshiko, Sumi; Dobraca, Dina; Jackson, Rebecca; Smorodinsky, Svetlana; Smith, Daniel; Harnly, Martha

    2016-01-01

    Mortality increases during periods of elevated heat. Identification of vulnerable subgroups by demographics, causes of death, and geographic regions, including deaths occurring at home, is needed to inform public health prevention efforts. We calculated mortality relative risks (RRs) and excess deaths associated with a large-scale California heat wave in 2006, comparing deaths during the heat wave with reference days. For total (all-place) and at-home mortality, we examined risks by demographic factors, internal and external causes of death, and building climate zones. During the heat wave, 582 excess deaths occurred, a 5% increase over expected (RR = 1.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03–1.08). Sixty-six percent of excess deaths were at home (RR = 1.12, CI 1.07–1.16). Total mortality risk was higher among those aged 35–44 years than ≥65, and among Hispanics than whites. Deaths from external causes increased more sharply (RR = 1.18, CI 1.10–1.27) than from internal causes (RR = 1.04, CI 1.02–1.07). Geographically, risk varied by building climate zone; the highest risks of at-home death occurred in the northernmost coastal zone (RR = 1.58, CI 1.01–2.48) and the southernmost zone of California’s Central Valley (RR = 1.43, CI 1.21–1.68). Heat wave mortality risk varied across subpopulations, and some patterns of vulnerability differed from those previously identified. Public health efforts should also address at-home mortality, non-elderly adults, external causes, and at-risk geographic regions. PMID:27005646

  15. Mortality during a Large-Scale Heat Wave by Place, Demographic Group, Internal and External Causes of Death, and Building Climate Zone.

    PubMed

    Joe, Lauren; Hoshiko, Sumi; Dobraca, Dina; Jackson, Rebecca; Smorodinsky, Svetlana; Smith, Daniel; Harnly, Martha

    2016-03-09

    Mortality increases during periods of elevated heat. Identification of vulnerable subgroups by demographics, causes of death, and geographic regions, including deaths occurring at home, is needed to inform public health prevention efforts. We calculated mortality relative risks (RRs) and excess deaths associated with a large-scale California heat wave in 2006, comparing deaths during the heat wave with reference days. For total (all-place) and at-home mortality, we examined risks by demographic factors, internal and external causes of death, and building climate zones. During the heat wave, 582 excess deaths occurred, a 5% increase over expected (RR = 1.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.08). Sixty-six percent of excess deaths were at home (RR = 1.12, CI 1.07-1.16). Total mortality risk was higher among those aged 35-44 years than ≥ 65, and among Hispanics than whites. Deaths from external causes increased more sharply (RR = 1.18, CI 1.10-1.27) than from internal causes (RR = 1.04, CI 1.02-1.07). Geographically, risk varied by building climate zone; the highest risks of at-home death occurred in the northernmost coastal zone (RR = 1.58, CI 1.01-2.48) and the southernmost zone of California's Central Valley (RR = 1.43, CI 1.21-1.68). Heat wave mortality risk varied across subpopulations, and some patterns of vulnerability differed from those previously identified. Public health efforts should also address at-home mortality, non-elderly adults, external causes, and at-risk geographic regions.

  16. Application of agroclimatic indices for viticultural zoning at macroscale level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fraga, H.; Malheiro, A. C.; Santos, J. A.; Pinto, J. G.

    2009-09-01

    Viticultural zoning not only gives valuable information about the suitability of a particular region for wine production, but also helps in determining the most adequate varieties for a local site, or even to identify constraints for grapevine production. In addition, regarding the socio-economic relevance of this crop in a context of new challenges enforced by a changing climate, a thorough assessment of its potential future adaptation can only be achieved through scientific analyses. The demarcation of new wine regions is also critically dependent on these studies. Therefore, the present research was focused on developing a computer based model of agroclimatic grapevine zoning at a macroclimate (global) scale. For that purpose, several agroclimatic indices (e.g., thermal and heliothermal indices) were calculated worldwide. In fact, agroclimatic indices are widely used when relating the viticultural climate and the elements of grape and wine quality. Their calculation was carried out by, first, using climatic variables (mostly daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily precipitation amounts) from the NCEP reanalysis dataset and, second, using data from a general circulation atmospheric model for a specific future emission scenario (A1B). A bioclimatic atlas showing the global fields of the different indices was then produced for two separate recent-past periods (1961-1990 and 1990-2008) and for a future scenario (2030-2050). The comparison between the bioclimatic fields defined for the two different recent-past periods enables the detection of long-term trends, while the comparison of these two periods with the future period allows the isolation of projected changes. Based on the results of these agroclimatic indices and to simplify the analysis, the dimensionality of the problem was reduced by considering a composite index. This provides a macro-characterization of worldwide areas where this crop may preferentially grow, as well as an identification of

  17. Construction Guide to Next-Generation High-Performance Walls in Climate Zones 3-5 - Part 1: 2x6 Walls

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kochkin, V.; Wiehagen, J.

    2017-08-31

    Part 1 of this Construction Guide to High-Performance Walls in Climate Zones 3-5 provides time-proven, practical, and cost-effective strategies for constructing durable, energy-efficient walls. It addresses walls constructed with 2x6 wood frame studs, wood structural panel (WSP) exterior sheathing, and a cladding system installed over WSP sheathing in low-rise residential buildings up to three stories high.

  18. Construction Guide to Next-Generation High-Performance Walls in Climate Zones 3-5 - Part 1: 2x6 Walls

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kochkin, V.; Wiehagen, J.

    Part 1 of this Construction Guide to High-Performance Walls in Climate Zones 3-5 provides time-proven, practical, and cost-effective strategies for constructing durable, energy-efficient walls. It addresses walls constructed with 2x6 wood frame studs, wood structural panel (WSP) exterior sheathing, and a cladding system installed over WSP sheathing in low-rise residential buildings up to three stories high.

  19. Zoning vulnerability of climate change in variation of amount and trend of precipitation - Case Study: Great Khorasan province

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Modiri, Ehsan; Modiri, Sadegh

    2015-04-01

    meteorological perspective risk. Finally, after determining the degree of threats, meteorological vulnerability zoning map was produced by kriging interpolation method and utilizing geographic information systems (GIS). It showed most studied areas were in complete level of investigation. Keywords: Vulnerability, Climate threats, GIS, Zoning, Precipitation, Crisis management.

  20. A method to determine agro-climatic zones based on correlation and cluster analyses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borges Valeriano, Taynara Tuany; de Souza Rolim, Glauco; de Oliveira Aparecido, Lucas Eduardo

    2017-12-01

    Determining agro-climatic zones (ACZs) is traditionally made by cross-comparing meteorological elements such as air temperature, rainfall, and water deficit (DEF). This study proposes a new method based on correlations between monthly DEFs during the crop cycle and annual yield and performs a multivariate cluster analysis on these correlations. This `correlation method' was applied to all municipalities in the state of São Paulo to determine ACZs for coffee plantations. A traditional ACZ method for coffee, which is based on temperature and DEF ranges (Evangelista et al.; RBEAA, 6:445-452, 2002), was applied to the study area to compare against the correlation method. The traditional ACZ classified the "Alta Mogina," "Média Mogiana," and "Garça and Marília" regions as traditional coffee regions that were either suitable or even restricted for coffee plantations. These traditional regions have produced coffee since 1800 and should not be classified as restricted. The correlation method classified those areas as high-producing regions and expanded them into other areas. The proposed method is innovative, because it is more detailed than common ACZ methods. Each developmental crop phase was analyzed based on correlations between the monthly DEF and yield, improving the importance of crop physiology in relation to climate.

  1. Diverse effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qiao, Jianmin; Yu, Deyong; Wang, Qianfeng; Liu, Yupeng

    2018-06-01

    Both crop distribution and climate change are important drivers for crop production and can affect food security, which is an important requirement for sustainable development. However, their effects on crop production are confounded and warrant detailed investigation. As a key area for food production that is sensitive to climate change, the agro-pastoral transitional zone (APTZ) plays a significant role in regional food security. To investigate the respective effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production, the well-established GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted with different scenario designs in this study. From 1980 to 2010, the crop distribution for wheat, maize, and rice witnessed a dramatic change due to agricultural policy adjustments and ecological engineering-related construction in the APTZ. At the same time, notable climate change was observed. The simulation results indicated that the climate change had a positive impact on the crop production of wheat, maize, and rice, while the crop distribution change led to an increase in the production of maize and rice, but a decrease in the wheat production. Comparatively, crop distribution change had a larger impact on wheat (-1.71 × 106 t) and maize (8.53 × 106 t) production, whereas climate change exerted a greater effect on rice production (0.58 × 106 t), during the period from 1980 to 2010 in the APTZ. This study is helpful to understand the mechanism of the effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production, and aid policy makers in reducing the threat of future food insecurity.

  2. Diverse effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qiao, Jianmin; Yu, Deyong; Wang, Qianfeng; Liu, Yupeng

    2017-07-01

    Both crop distribution and climate change are important drivers for crop production and can affect food security, which is an important requirement for sustainable development. However, their effects on crop production are confounded and warrant detailed investigation. As a key area for food production that is sensitive to climate change, the agro-pastoral transitional zone (APTZ) plays a significant role in regional food security. To investigate the respective effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production, the well-established GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted with different scenario designs in this study. From 1980 to 2010, the crop distribution for wheat, maize, and rice witnessed a dramatic change due to agricultural policy adjustments and ecological engineering-related construction in the APTZ. At the same time, notable climate change was observed. The simulation results indicated that the climate change had a positive impact on the crop production of wheat, maize, and rice, while the crop distribution change led to an increase in the production of maize and rice, but a decrease in the wheat production. Comparatively, crop distribution change had a larger impact on wheat (-1.71 × 106 t) and maize (8.53 × 106 t) production, whereas climate change exerted a greater effect on rice production (0.58 × 106 t), during the period from 1980 to 2010 in the APTZ. This study is helpful to understand the mechanism of the effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production, and aid policy makers in reducing the threat of future food insecurity.

  3. Persistent millennial-scale link between Greenland climate and northern Pacific Oxygen Minimum Zone under interglacial conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cartapanis, O.; Tachikawa, K.; Romero, O. E.; Bard, E.

    2014-02-01

    The intensity and/or extent of the northeastern Pacific Oxygen Minimum Zone (OMZ) varied in-phase with the Northern Hemisphere high latitude climate on millennial timescales during the last glacial period, indicating the occurrence of atmospheric and oceanic connections under glacial conditions. While millennial variability was reported for both the Greenland and the northern Atlantic Ocean during the last interglacial period, the climatic connections with the northeastern Pacific OMZ has not yet been observed under warm interglacial conditions. Here we present a new geochemical dataset, spanning the past 120 ka, for major components (terrigenous fraction, marine organic matter, biogenic opal, and carbonates) generated by X-ray fluorescence scanning alongside with biological productivity and redox sensitive trace element content (Mo, Ni, Cd) of sediment core MD02-2508 at 23° N, retrieved from the northern limit of the modern OMZ. Based on elemental ratios Si / Ti (proxy for opal), Cd / Al and Ni / Al, we suggest that biological productivity was high during the last interglacial (MIS5). Highly resolved opal reconstruction presents millennial variability corresponding to all the Dansgaard-Oeschger interstadial events over the last interglacial, while the Mo / Al ratio indicates reduced oxygenation during these events. Extremely high opal content during warm interstadials suggests high diatom productivity. Despite the different climatic and oceanic background between glacial and interglacial periods, rapid variability in the northeastern Pacific OMZ seems to be tightly related to Northern Hemisphere high latitude climate via atmospheric and possibly oceanic processes.

  4. Using crowdsourced data from citizen weather stations to analyse air temperature in 'local climate zones' in Berlin, Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fenner, Daniel; Meier, Fred; Bechtel, Benjamin; Otto, Marco; Scherer, Dieter

    2017-04-01

    Provision of observational data with high spatial coverage over extended time periods still remains as one of the biggest challenges in urban climate research. Classical meteorological networks are seldomly designed to monitor atmospheric conditions in a broad variety of urban environments, though the heterogeneity of urban structures leads to distinct thermal characteristics on local scales, i.e., hundreds of metres to several kilometres. One approach to overcome the aforementioned challenges of observation networks is to use data from weather stations that are maintained by citizens. The private company 'netatmo' (www.netatmo.com) produces and distributes such citizen weather stations (CWS) around the world. The stations automatically send their data to the netatmo server, and the user decides if data are publicly shared. Shared data can freely be retrieved via an application programming interface. We collected air temperature (T) data for the year 2015 for the city of Berlin, Germany, and surroundings with more than 1500 'netatmo' CWS in the study area. The entire data set was thoroughly quality checked, and filter techniques, involving data from a reference network, were developed to address different types of errors associated with CWS data. Additionally, the accuracy of 'netatmo' CWS was checked in a climate chamber and in a long-term field experiment. Since the terms 'urban' and 'rural' are ambiguous in urban climate studies, Stewart and Oke (2012) developed the 'local climate zone' (LCZ) concept to enhance understanding and interpretation of air temperature differences in urban regions. LCZ classification for the study region was conducted using the 'WUDAPT' approach by Bechtel et al. (2015). The quality-checked CWS data were used to analyse T characteristics of LCZ classes in Berlin and surroundings. Specifically, we analysed how LCZ classes are represented by CWS in 2015, how T varies within each LCZ class ('intra-LCZ variability'), and if significant

  5. Climate-Smart Seedlot Selection Tool: Reforestation and Restoration for the 21st Century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stevenson-Molnar, N.; Howe, G.; St Clair, B.; Bachelet, D. M.; Ward, B. C.

    2017-12-01

    Local populations of trees are generally adapted to their local climates. Historically, this has meant that local seed zones based on geography and elevation have been used to guide restoration and reforestation. In the face of climate change, seeds from local sources will likely be subjected to climates significantly different from those to which they are currently adapted. The Seedlot Selection Tool (SST) offers a new approach for matching seed sources with planting sites based on future climate scenarios. The SST is a mapping program designed for forest managers and researchers. Users can use the tool to to find seedlots for a given planting site, or to find potential planting sites for a given seedlot. Users select a location (seedlot or planting site), climate scenarios (a climate to which seeds are adapted, and a current or future climate scenario), climate variables, and transfer limits (the maximum climatic distance that is considered a suitable match). Transfer limits are provided by the user, or derived from the range of values within a geographically defined seed zone. The tool calculates scores across the landscape based on an area's similarity, in a multivariate climate space, to the input. Users can explore results on an interactive map, and export PDF and PowerPoint reports, including a map of the results along with the inputs used. Planned future improvements include support for non-forest use cases and ability to download results as GeoTIFF data. The Seedlot Selection Tool and its source code are available online at https://seedlotselectiontool.org. It is co-developed by the United States Forest Service, Oregon State University, and the Conservation Biology Institute.

  6. Spatial and temporal variations of wind erosion climatic erosivity in the farming-pastoral zone of Northern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yue, Shuping; Yang, Ruixin; Yan, Yechao; Yang, Zhengwei; Wang, Dandan

    2018-03-01

    Wind erosion climatic erosivity is an important parameter to assess the possible effects of climatic conditions on wind erosion. In this paper, the wind erosion climatic factor (C-factor), which was used to quantify the wind erosion climatic erosivity, was calculated for the period 1960-2014 based on monthly meteorological data collected from 101 stations in the farming-pastoral zone of Northern China. The Mann-Kendall (M-K) test, trend analysis, and geostatistical analysis methods were used to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of the wind erosion climatic erosivity in this region. The result suggests that the annual C-factor, with a maximum of 76.05 in 1969 and a minimum of 26.57 in 2007, has a significant decreasing trend over the past 55 years. Strong seasonality in the C-factor was found, with the highest value in spring, which accounts for a significant proportion of the annual C-factor (41.46%). However, the coefficient of variation of the seasonal C-factor reaches a maximum in winter and a minimum in spring. The mean annual C-factor varies substantially across the region. Areas with high values of the mean annual C-factor (C ≥ 100) are located in Ulanqab and Dingxi, while areas with low values (C ≤ 10) lie in Lanzhou, Linxia, Dingxi, Xining, and Chengde. Spatial analysis on the trend of the C-factor reveals that 81% of the stations show statistically significant decreases at a 90% confidence level. An examination of the concentration ratio of the C-factor shows that the wind erosion climatic erosivity is concentrated in spring, especially in April, which makes this period particularly important for implementing soil conservation measures.

  7. Lymph node detection in IASLC-defined zones on PET/CT images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Yihua; Udupa, Jayaram K.; Odhner, Dewey; Tong, Yubing; Torigian, Drew A.

    2016-03-01

    Lymph node detection is challenging due to the low contrast between lymph nodes as well as surrounding soft tissues and the variation in nodal size and shape. In this paper, we propose several novel ideas which are combined into a system to operate on positron emission tomography/ computed tomography (PET/CT) images to detect abnormal thoracic nodes. First, our previous Automatic Anatomy Recognition (AAR) approach is modified where lymph node zones predominantly following International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer (IASLC) specifications are modeled as objects arranged in a hierarchy along with key anatomic anchor objects. This fuzzy anatomy model built from diagnostic CT images is then deployed on PET/CT images for automatically recognizing the zones. A novel globular filter (g-filter) to detect blob-like objects over a specified range of sizes is designed to detect the most likely locations and sizes of diseased nodes. Abnormal nodes within each automatically localized zone are subsequently detected via combined use of different items of information at various scales: lymph node zone model poses found at recognition indicating the geographic layout at the global level of node clusters, g-filter response which hones in on and carefully selects node-like globular objects at the node level, and CT and PET gray value but within only the most plausible nodal regions for node presence at the voxel level. The models are built from 25 diagnostic CT scans and refined for an object hierarchy based on a separate set of 20 diagnostic CT scans. Node detection is tested on an additional set of 20 PET/CT scans. Our preliminary results indicate node detection sensitivity and specificity at around 90% and 85%, respectively.

  8. Patterns of Genetic and Morphometric Diversity in Baobab (Adansonia digitata) Populations Across Different Climatic Zones of Benin (West Africa)

    PubMed Central

    ASSOGBADJO, A. E.; KYNDT, T.; SINSIN, B.; GHEYSEN, G.; VAN DAMME, P.

    2006-01-01

    • Background and Aims Baobab (Adansonia digitata) is a multi-purpose tree used daily by rural African communities. The present study aimed at investigating the level of morphometric and genetic variation and spatial genetic structure within and between threatened baobab populations from the three climatic zones of Benin. • Methods A total of 137 individuals from six populations were analysed using morphometric data as well as molecular marker data generated using the AFLP technique. • Key Results Five primer pairs resulted in a total of 217 scored bands with 78·34 % of them being polymorphic. A two-level AMOVA of 137 individuals from six baobab populations revealed 82·37 % of the total variation within populations and 17·63 % among populations (P < 0·001)· Analysis of population structure with allele-frequency based F-statistics revealed a global FST of 0·127 ± 0·072 (P < 0·001). The mean gene diversity within populations (HS) and the average gene diversity between populations (DST) were estimated at 0·309 ± 0·000 and 0·045 ± 0·072, respectively. Baobabs in the Sudanian and Sudan-Guinean zones of Benin were short and produced the highest yields of pulp, seeds and kernels, in contrast to the ones in the Guinean zone, which were tall and produced only a small number of fruits with a low pulp, seed and kernel productivity. A statistically significant correlation with the observed patterns of genetic diversity was observed for three morphological characteristics: height of the trees, number of branches and thickness of the capsules. • Conclusions The results indicate some degree of physical isolation of the populations collected in the different climatic zones and suggest a substantial amount of genetic structuring between the analysed populations of baobab. Sampling options of the natural populations are suggested for in or ex situ conservation. PMID:16520343

  9. Evaluating the patterns of spatiotemporal trends of root zone soil moisture in major climate regions in East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zohaib, Muhammad; Kim, Hyunglok; Choi, Minha

    2017-08-01

    Root zone soil moisture (RZSM) is a crucial variable in land-atmosphere interactions. Evaluating the spatiotemporal trends and variability patterns of RZSM are essential for discerning the anthropogenic and climate change effects on the regional and global hydrological cycles. In this study, the trends of RZSM, computed by the exponential filter from the European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative soil moisture, were evaluated in major climate regions of East Asia from 1982 to 2014. Moreover, the trends of RZSM were compared to the trends of precipitation (P), skin temperature (Tskin), and actual evapotranspiration (AET) to investigate how they influence the RZSM trends in each climate region. Drying trends were predominant in arid and continental regions, whereas wetting trends were found in the tropical and temperate regions. The increasing trends of Tskin and AET cause drying in arid and continental regions, whereas in tropical regions, these cause wetting trends, which might be due to convective P. In temperate regions, despite decreasing P and increasing Tskin, the RZSM trend was increasing, attributed to the intensive irrigation activities in these regions. This is probably the first time to analyze the long-term trends of RZSM in different climate regions. Hence, the results of this study will improve our understanding of the regional and global hydrological cycles. Despite certain limitations, the results of this study may be useful for improving and developing climate models and predicting long-term vast scale natural disasters such as drought, dust outbreaks, floods, and heat waves.

  10. Spatio-temporal variability of urban heat islands in local climate zones of Delhi-NCR

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Budhiraja, Bakul; Pathak, Prasad; Agrawal, Girish

    2017-10-01

    Land use change is at the nexus of human territory expansion and urbanization. Human intrusion disturbs the natural heat energy balance of the area, although a new equilibrium of energy flux is attained but with greater diurnal range and adversely affecting the geo/physical variables. Modification in the trend of these variables causes a phenomenon known as Urban Heat Island (UHI) i.e. a dome of heat is formed around the city which has 7-10 °C high temperature than the nearby rural area at night. The study focuses on Surface UHI conventionally studied using thermal band of the remotely sensed satellite images. Land Surface Temperature (LST) is determined for the year 2015 using Landsat 8 for Delhi National Capital Region (NCR). This region was chosen because it is the biggest urban agglomeration in India, many satellite cities are coming in periphery and it has temperate climate. Quantification of UHI is predictably done using UHI intensity that is the difference between representative Urban and rural temperature. Recently the definition of urban and rural has been questioned because of various kinds of configurations of urban spaces across the globe. Delhi NCR urban configurations vary spatially- thus one UHI intensity does not give a deep understanding of the micro-climate. Advancement was made recently to standardize UHI intensity by dividing city into Local Climate Zones (LCZ), comes with 17 broad categories. LCZ map of Delhi NCR has been acquired from World Urban Database. The seasonality in LST across LCZ has been determined along with identifying warmest and coolest LCZ.

  11. Relative importance of management, meteorological and environmental factors in the spatial distribution of Fasciola hepatica in dairy cattle in a temperate climate zone.

    PubMed

    Bennema, S C; Ducheyne, E; Vercruysse, J; Claerebout, E; Hendrickx, G; Charlier, J

    2011-02-01

    Fasciola hepatica, a trematode parasite with a worldwide distribution, is the cause of important production losses in the dairy industry. Diagnosis is hampered by the fact that the infection is mostly subclinical. To increase awareness and develop regionally adapted control methods, knowledge on the spatial distribution of economically important infection levels is needed. Previous studies modelling the spatial distribution of F. hepatica are mostly based on single cross-sectional samplings and have focussed on climatic and environmental factors, often ignoring management factors. This study investigated the associations between management, climatic and environmental factors affecting the spatial distribution of infection with F. hepatica in dairy herds in a temperate climate zone (Flanders, Belgium) over three consecutive years. A bulk-tank milk antibody ELISA was used to measure F. hepatica infection levels in a random sample of 1762 dairy herds in the autumns of 2006, 2007 and 2008. The infection levels were included in a Geographic Information System together with meteorological, environmental and management parameters. Logistic regression models were used to determine associations between possible risk factors and infection levels. The prevalence and spatial distribution of F. hepatica was relatively stable, with small interannual differences in prevalence and location of clusters. The logistic regression model based on both management and climatic/environmental factors included the factors: annual rainfall, mowing of pastures, proportion of grazed grass in the diet and length of grazing season as significant predictors and described the spatial distribution of F. hepatica better than the model based on climatic/environmental factors only (annual rainfall, elevation and slope, soil type), with an Area Under the Curve of the Receiver Operating Characteristic of 0.68 compared with 0.62. The results indicate that in temperate climate zones without large climatic

  12. Defining climate change scenario characteristics with a phase space of cumulative primary energy and carbon intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ritchie, Justin; Dowlatabadi, Hadi

    2018-02-01

    Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing. Scenarios of socio-technical development consistent with end-of-century forcing levels are commonly produced by integrated assessment models. However, outlooks for forcing from fossil energy combustion can also be presented and defined in terms of two essential components: total energy use this century and the carbon intensity of that energy. This formulation allows a phase space diagram to succinctly describe a broad range of possible outcomes for carbon emissions from the future energy system. In the following paper, we demonstrate this phase space method with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The resulting RCP phase space is applied to map IPCC Working Group III (WGIII) reference case ‘no policy’ scenarios. Once these scenarios are described as coordinates in the phase space, data mining techniques can readily distill their core features. Accordingly, we conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the shared outlooks of these scenarios for oil, gas and coal resource use. As a whole, the AR5 database depicts a transition toward re-carbonization, where a world without climate policy inevitably leads to an energy supply with increasing carbon intensity. This orientation runs counter to the experienced ‘dynamics as usual’ of gradual decarbonization, suggesting climate change targets outlined in the Paris Accord are more readily achievable than projected to date.

  13. Mapping urban climate zones and quantifying climate behaviors--an application on Toulouse urban area (France).

    PubMed

    Houet, Thomas; Pigeon, Grégoire

    2011-01-01

    Facing the concern of the population to its environment and to climatic change, city planners are now considering the urban climate in their choices of planning. The use of climatic maps, such Urban Climate Zone‑UCZ, is adapted for this kind of application. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate that the UCZ classification, integrated in the World Meteorological Organization guidelines, first can be automatically determined for sample areas and second is meaningful according to climatic variables. The analysis presented is applied on Toulouse urban area (France). Results show first that UCZ differentiate according to air and surface temperature. It has been possible to determine the membership of sample areas to an UCZ using landscape descriptors automatically computed with GIS and remote sensed data. It also emphasizes that climate behavior and magnitude of UCZ may vary from winter to summer. Finally we discuss the influence of climate data and scale of observation on UCZ mapping and climate characterization. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Evolution of Diurnal Asymmetry of Surface Temperature over Different Climatic Zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajendran, V.; C T, D.; Chakravorty, A.; AghaKouchak, A.

    2016-12-01

    that the DTR changes are influenced by both, local and global factors working in tandem, since a warmed up ocean produces contradictory DTR trends in different climatic zones. It can be inferred from this study that the impact of a global change in a region will depend on the regional climate.

  15. Evaluating CMIP5 Simulations of Historical Continental Climate with Koeppen Bioclimatic Metrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phillips, T. J.; Bonfils, C.

    2013-12-01

    The classic Koeppen bioclimatic classification scheme associates generic vegetation types (e.g. grassland, tundra, broadleaf or evergreen forests, etc.) with regional climate zones defined by their annual cycles of continental temperature (T) and precipitation (P), considered together. The locations or areas of Koeppen vegetation types derived from observational data thus can provide concise metrical standards for simultaneously evaluating climate simulations of T and P in naturally defined regions. The CMIP5 models' collective ability to correctly represent two variables that are critically important for living organisms at regional scales is therefore central to this evaluation. For this study, 14 Koeppen vegetation types are derived from annual-cycle climatologies of T and P in some 3 dozen CMIP5 simulations of the 1980-1999 period. Metrics for evaluating the ability of the CMIP5 models to simulate the correct locations and areas of each vegetation type, as well as measures of overall model performance, also are developed. It is found that the CMIP5 models are generally most deficient in simulating: 1) climates of drier Koeppen zones (e.g. desert, savanna, grassland, steppe vegetation types) located in the southwestern U.S. and Mexico, eastern Europe, southern Africa, and central Australia; 2) climates of regions such as central Asia and western South America where topography plays a key role. Details of regional T or P biases in selected simulations that exemplify general model performance problems also will be presented. Acknowledgments: This work was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science and was performed at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. Map of Koeppen vegetation types derived from observed T and P.

  16. Climate-Induced Landslides within the Larch Dominant Permafrost Zone of Central Siberia.

    PubMed

    Kharuk, Viacheslav I; Shushpanov, Alexandr S; Im, Sergei T; Ranson, Kenneth J

    2016-04-01

    Climate impact on landslide occurrence and spatial patterns were analyzed within the larch-dominant communities associated with continuous permafrost areas of Central Siberia. We used high resolution satellite imagery (i.e. QuickBird, WorldView) to identify landslide scars over an area of 62000 km 2 . Landslide occurrence was analyzed with respect to climate variables (air temperature, precipitation, drought index SPEI), and GRACE satellite derived equivalent of water thickness anomalies (EWTA). Landslides were found only on southward facing slopes, and the occurrence of landslides increased exponentially with increasing slope steepness. Lengths of landslides correlated positively with slope steepness. The observed upper elevation limit of landslides tended to coincide with the tree line. Observations revealed landslides occurrence was also found to be strongly correlated with August precipitation (r = 0.81) and drought index (r = 0.7), with June-July-August soil water anomalies (i.e., EWTA, r = 0.68-0.7), and number of thawing days (i.e., a number of days with t max > 0°C; r = 0.67). A significant increase in the variance of soil water anomalies was observed, indicating that occurrence of landslides may increase even with a stable mean precipitation level. The key-findings of this study are (1) landslides occurrence increased within the permafrost zone of Central Siberia in the beginning of the 21st century; (2) the main cause of increased landslides occurrence are extremes in precipitation and soil water anomalies; and (3) landslides occurrence are strongly dependent on relief features such as southward facing steep slopes.

  17. Climate-Induced Landslides within the Larch Dominant Permafrost Zone of Central Siberia

    PubMed Central

    Shushpanov, Alexandr S; Im, Sergei T; Ranson, Kenneth J

    2017-01-01

    Climate impact on landslide occurrence and spatial patterns were analyzed within the larch-dominant communities associated with continuous permafrost areas of Central Siberia. We used high resolution satellite imagery (i.e. QuickBird, WorldView) to identify landslide scars over an area of 62000 km2. Landslide occurrence was analyzed with respect to climate variables (air temperature, precipitation, drought index SPEI), and GRACE satellite derived equivalent of water thickness anomalies (EWTA). Landslides were found only on southward facing slopes, and the occurrence of landslides increased exponentially with increasing slope steepness. Lengths of landslides correlated positively with slope steepness. The observed upper elevation limit of landslides tended to coincide with the tree line. Observations revealed landslides occurrence was also found to be strongly correlated with August precipitation (r = 0.81) and drought index (r = 0.7), with June-July-August soil water anomalies (i.e., EWTA, r = 0.68–0.7), and number of thawing days (i.e., a number of days with tmax > 0°C; r = 0.67). A significant increase in the variance of soil water anomalies was observed, indicating that occurrence of landslides may increase even with a stable mean precipitation level. The key-findings of this study are (1) landslides occurrence increased within the permafrost zone of Central Siberia in the beginning of the 21st century; (2) the main cause of increased landslides occurrence are extremes in precipitation and soil water anomalies; and (3) landslides occurrence are strongly dependent on relief features such as southward facing steep slopes. PMID:29326754

  18. [Will the climate change affect the mortality from prostate cancer?].

    PubMed

    Santos Arrontes, Daniel; García González, Jesús Isidro; Martín Muñoz, Manuel Pablo; Castro Pita, Miguel; Mañas Pelillo, Antonio; Paniagua Andrés, Pedro

    2007-03-01

    The global heating of the atmosphere, as well as the increase of the exposition to sunlight, will be associated with a decrease of the mortality from prostate cancer, due to an increase of the plasmatic levels of vitamin D. To evaluate if climatological factors (temperature, rainfall, and number of sunlight hours per year) may influence the mortality associated with prostate cancer over a five-year period. In this ecology type study we will evaluate the trends of prostate tumors associated mortality in the period between January 1st 1998 and December 31st 2002, in the geographic area of Spain (17 Autonomic communities-CA-and 2 Autonomic cities- Ceuta and Melilla-, 43 million inhabitants). Demographic and mortality data were obtained from the National Institute of Statistics (INE) and climatological data about temperature and rainfall were obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology (INM). The provinces were classified using the climatic index of Martonne (defined as the quotient between annual rainfall and mean annual temperature plus 10). Areas with a quotient below 5 ml/m2/o C are considered extremely arid zones; between 5 and 15 ml/m2/o C are considered arid zones, between 15 and 20 ml/m2/o C semiarid zones; between 20 and 30 ml/m2/o C subhumid zones; between 30 and 60 ml/m2/o C humid zones; and over 60 ml/m2/o C superhumid zones. We compared mortality rates between different climatic areas using the Jonckheere-Terpstra test for six independent samples following the index of Martonne. All calculations were performed using the SPSS v 13.0 for Windows software. A logistic regression model was performed to identify climate factors associated with prostate cancer mortality. A likeliness of the null hypotheses inferior to 0.05 was considered significant. Prostate cancer mortality presented statistically significant differences, being higher in provinces with higher Martonne index (p < 0.001) and lower in areas with a greater number of sunlight hours per year

  19. Localized Multi-Model Extremes Metrics for the Fourth National Climate Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, T. R.; Kunkel, K.; Stevens, L. E.; Easterling, D. R.; Biard, J.; Sun, L.

    2017-12-01

    We have performed localized analysis of scenario-based datasets for the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4). These datasets include CMIP5-based Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) downscaled simulations at daily temporal resolution and 1/16th-degree spatial resolution. Over 45 temperature and precipitation extremes metrics have been processed using LOCA data, including threshold, percentile, and degree-days calculations. The localized analysis calculates trends in the temperature and precipitation extremes metrics for relatively small regions such as counties, metropolitan areas, climate zones, administrative areas, or economic zones. For NCA4, we are currently addressing metropolitan areas as defined by U.S. Census Bureau Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Such localized analysis provides essential information for adaptation planning at scales relevant to local planning agencies and businesses. Nearly 30 such regions have been analyzed to date. Each locale is defined by a closed polygon that is used to extract LOCA-based extremes metrics specific to the area. For each metric, single-model data at each LOCA grid location are first averaged over several 30-year historical and future periods. Then, for each metric, the spatial average across the region is calculated using model weights based on both model independence and reproducibility of current climate conditions. The range of single-model results is also captured on the same localized basis, and then combined with the weighted ensemble average for each region and each metric. For example, Boston-area cooling degree days and maximum daily temperature is shown below for RCP8.5 (red) and RCP4.5 (blue) scenarios. We also discuss inter-regional comparison of these metrics, as well as their relevance to risk analysis for adaptation planning.

  20. Dynamics of the EEG of human brain in the gradient magnetic fields of geological faults in different geographical and climatic zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pobachenko, S. V.; Sokolov, M. V.; Grigoriev, P. E.; Vasilieva, I. V.

    2017-11-01

    There are presented the results of experimental studies of the dynamics of indices of the functional state of a person located within the zones characterized by anomalous parameters of spatial distribution of magnetic field vector values. It is shown that these geophysical modifications have a pronounced effect on the dynamics of electrical activity indices of the human brain, regardless of geographic and climatic conditions.

  1. Which key properties controls the preferential transport in the vadose zone under transient hydrological conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Groh, J.; Vanderborght, J.; Puetz, T.; Gerke, H. H.; Rupp, H.; Wollschlaeger, U.; Stumpp, C.; Priesack, E.; Vereecken, H.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding water flow and solute transport in the unsaturated zone is of great importance for an appropriate land use management strategy. The quantification and prediction of water and solute fluxes through the vadose zone can help to improve management practices in order to limit potential risk on our fresh water resources. Water related solute transport and residence time is strongly affected by preferential flow paths in the soil. Water flow in soils depends on soil properties and site factors (climate or experiment conditions, land use) and are therefore important factors to understand preferential solute transport in the unsaturated zone. However our understanding and knowledge of which on-site properties or conditions define and enhance preferential flow and transport is still poor and mostly limited onto laboratory experimental conditions (small column length and steady state boundary conditions). Within the TERENO SOILCan lysimeter network, which was designed to study the effects of climate change on soil functions, a bromide tracer was applied on 62 lysimeter at eight different test sites between Dec. 2013 and Jan. 2014. The TERENO SOILCan infrastructure offers the unique possibility to study the occurrence of preferential flow and transport of various soil types under different natural transient hydrological conditions and land use (crop, bare and grassland) at eight TERENO SOILCan observatories. Working with lysimeter replicates at each observatory allows defining the spatial variability of preferential transport and flow. Additionally lysimeters in the network were transferred within and between observatories in order to subject them to different rainfall and temperature regimes and enable us to relate the soil type susceptibility of preferential flow and transport not only to site specific physical and land use properties, but also to different transient boundary conditions. Comparison and statistical analysis between preferential flow indicators 5

  2. Land-Use Change Impact on Soil Sustainability in a Climate and Vegetation Transition Zone

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Reitsma, Kurt D.; Dunn, Barry H.; Mishra, U.

    A growing world population and climate change are expected to influence future agricultural productivity and land use. This study determined the impact of land-use change on soil sustainability and discussed the factors contributing to these changes. South Dakota was selected as a model system because corn ( Zea mays L.) grain prices tripled between 2006 and 2012 and it is located in a climate and grassland/cropland transition zone. High resolution imagery was used to visually determine land uses (cropland, grassland, nonagricultural, habitat, and water) at 14,400 points in 2006 and 2012. At each point, land-use change and the USDA landmore » capability class (LCC) were determined. Over the 6-yr study period, 6.87% of the grasslands (730,000 ha) were converted to cropland, with 93% occurring on lands generally considered suitable for crop production (LCC ≤ IV) if appropriate practices are followed. Converted grasslands, however, had higher LCC values than existing croplands and lower LCC values than remaining grasslands. In addition, 4.2% of the croplands (250,000 ha) were converted to grasslands, and statewide, 20,000 ha of croplands were converted to grasslands in areas limited by excess water (LCC V). The conversion of grasslands could not be linked to one specific factor and may be related to: (i) a desire to increase financial returns, (ii) changes in the land ownership structure, (iii) technology improvements, (iv) governmental policies, (v) climate change, and (vi) an aging workforce. Here, research and outreach programs that balance the goods and services of different land uses are needed to maintain sustainable agroecosystems.« less

  3. Land-Use Change Impact on Soil Sustainability in a Climate and Vegetation Transition Zone

    DOE PAGES

    Reitsma, Kurt D.; Dunn, Barry H.; Mishra, U.; ...

    2015-09-11

    A growing world population and climate change are expected to influence future agricultural productivity and land use. This study determined the impact of land-use change on soil sustainability and discussed the factors contributing to these changes. South Dakota was selected as a model system because corn ( Zea mays L.) grain prices tripled between 2006 and 2012 and it is located in a climate and grassland/cropland transition zone. High resolution imagery was used to visually determine land uses (cropland, grassland, nonagricultural, habitat, and water) at 14,400 points in 2006 and 2012. At each point, land-use change and the USDA landmore » capability class (LCC) were determined. Over the 6-yr study period, 6.87% of the grasslands (730,000 ha) were converted to cropland, with 93% occurring on lands generally considered suitable for crop production (LCC ≤ IV) if appropriate practices are followed. Converted grasslands, however, had higher LCC values than existing croplands and lower LCC values than remaining grasslands. In addition, 4.2% of the croplands (250,000 ha) were converted to grasslands, and statewide, 20,000 ha of croplands were converted to grasslands in areas limited by excess water (LCC V). The conversion of grasslands could not be linked to one specific factor and may be related to: (i) a desire to increase financial returns, (ii) changes in the land ownership structure, (iii) technology improvements, (iv) governmental policies, (v) climate change, and (vi) an aging workforce. Here, research and outreach programs that balance the goods and services of different land uses are needed to maintain sustainable agroecosystems.« less

  4. Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

    Treesearch

    Toni Lyn Morelli; Christopher Daly; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Deanna M. Dulen; Joseph L. Ebersole; Stephen T. Jackson; Jessica D. Lundquist; Connie Millar; Sean P. Maher; William B. Monahan; Koren R. Nydick; Kelly T. Redmond; Sarah C. Sawyer; Sarah Stock; Steven R. Beissinger

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that...

  5. Predicting Pleistocene climate from vegetation in North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loehle, C.

    2007-02-01

    Climates at the Last Glacial Maximum have been inferred from fossil pollen assemblages, but these inferred climates are colder for eastern North America than those produced by climate simulations. It has been suggested that low CO2 levels could account for this discrepancy. In this study biogeographic evidence is used to test the CO2 effect model. The recolonization of glaciated zones in eastern North America following the last ice age produced distinct biogeographic patterns. It has been assumed that a wide zone south of the ice was tundra or boreal parkland (Boreal-Parkland Zone or BPZ), which would have been recolonized from southern refugia as the ice melted, but the patterns in this zone differ from those in the glaciated zone, which creates a major biogeographic anomaly. In the glacial zone, there are few endemics but in the BPZ there are many across multiple taxa. In the glacial zone, there are the expected gradients of genetic diversity with distance from the ice-free zone, but no evidence of this is found in the BPZ. Many races and related species exist in the BPZ which would have merged or hybridized if confined to the same refugia. Evidence for distinct southern refugia for most temperate species is lacking. Extinctions of temperate flora were rare. The interpretation of spruce as a boreal climate indicator may be mistaken over much of the region if the spruce was actually an extinct temperate species. All of these anomalies call into question the concept that climates in the zone south of the ice were extremely cold or that temperate species had to migrate far to the south. An alternate hypothesis is that low CO2 levels gave an advantage to pine and spruce, which are the dominant trees in the BPZ, and to herbaceous species over trees, which also fits the observed pattern. Thus climate reconstruction from pollen data is probably biased and needs to incorporate CO2 effects. Most temperate species could have survived across their current ranges at lower

  6. Modeling of tropospheric NO2 column over different climatic zones and land use/land cover types in South Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    ul-Haq, Zia; Rana, Asim Daud; Tariq, Salman; Mahmood, Khalid; Ali, Muhammad; Bashir, Iqra

    2018-03-01

    We have applied regression analyses for the modeling of tropospheric NO2 (tropo-NO2) as the function of anthropogenic nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions, aerosol optical depth (AOD), and some important meteorological parameters such as temperature (Temp), precipitation (Preci), relative humidity (RH), wind speed (WS), cloud fraction (CLF) and outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) over different climatic zones and land use/land cover types in South Asia during October 2004-December 2015. Simple linear regression shows that, over South Asia, tropo-NO2 variability is significantly linked to AOD, WS, NOx, Preci and CLF. Also zone-5, consisting of tropical monsoon areas of eastern India and Myanmar, is the only study zone over which all the selected parameters show their influence on tropo-NO2 at statistical significance levels. In stepwise multiple linear modeling, tropo-NO2 column over landmass of South Asia, is significantly predicted by the combination of RH (standardized regression coefficient, β = - 49), AOD (β = 0.42) and NOx (β = 0.25). The leading predictors of tropo-NO2 columns over zones 1-5 are OLR, AOD, Temp, OLR, and RH respectively. Overall, as revealed by the higher correlation coefficients (r), the multiple regressions provide reasonable models for tropo-NO2 over South Asia (r = 0.82), zone-4 (r = 0.90) and zone-5 (r = 0.93). The lowest r (of 0.66) has been found for hot semi-arid region in northwestern Indus-Ganges Basin (zone-2). The highest value of β for urban area AOD (of 0.42) is observed for megacity Lahore, located in warm semi-arid zone-2 with large scale crop-residue burning, indicating strong influence of aerosols on the modeled tropo-NO2 column. A statistical significant correlation (r = 0.22) at the 0.05 level is found between tropo-NO2 and AOD over Lahore. Also NOx emissions appear as the highest contributor (β = 0.59) for modeled tropo-NO2 column over megacity Dhaka.

  7. Evaluation of outdoor human thermal sensation of local climate zones based on long-term database

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Unger, János; Skarbit, Nóra; Gál, Tamás

    2018-02-01

    This study gives a comprehensive picture on the diurnal and seasonal general outdoor human thermal sensation levels in different urban quarters based on long-term (almost 3 years) data series from urban and rural areas of Szeged, Hungary. It is supplemented with a case study dealing with an extreme heat wave period which is more and more frequent in the last decades in the study area. The intra-urban comparison is based on a thermal aspect classification of the surface, namely, the local climate zone (LCZ) system, on an urban meteorological station network and on the utilization of the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) comfort index with categories calibrated to the local population. The selected stations represent sunlit areas well inside the LCZ areas. The results show that the seasonal and annual average magnitudes of the thermal load exerted by LCZs in the afternoon and evening follow their LCZ numbers. It is perfectly in line with the LCZ concept originally concentrating only on air temperature ( T air) differences between the zones. Our results justified the subdivision of urban areas into LCZs and give significant support to the application possibilities of the LCZ concept as a broader term covering different thermal phenomena.

  8. Definition Of Touch-Sensitive Zones For Graphical Displays

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Monroe, Burt L., III; Jones, Denise R.

    1988-01-01

    Touch zones defined simply by touching, while editing done automatically. Development of touch-screen interactive computing system, tedious task. Interactive Editor for Definition of Touch-Sensitive Zones computer program increases efficiency of human/machine communications by enabling user to define each zone interactively, minimizing redundancy in programming and eliminating need for manual computation of boundaries of touch areas. Information produced during editing process written to data file, to which access gained when needed by application program.

  9. Drought or humidity oscillations? The case of coastal zone of Lebanon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaban, Amin; Houhou, Rola

    2015-10-01

    There is discrepancy in classifying Lebanon according to the different climatic zones; however, it is often described as a semi-arid region. Lately, Lebanon has been witnessing climatic oscillations in the meteorological parameters. The impact of these oscillations on water sector has been reflected also on energy-food nexus. Yet, there are a number of studies obtained to identify the climate of Lebanon, and they show contradictory results; especially these studies elaborated different datasets and applied diverse methods which often modeled only on large-scale regions. Therefore, the analysis of climatic data depended on complete and long-term climatic records that can be applied to assess the existing climatic status of Lebanon, as well as to assure whether Lebanon is under drought, humidity or it is oscillating between both. This study utilized considerable datasets, from different sources including the remotely sensed systems (e.g. TRMM). These datasets were interpolated and analyzed statistically according to De Martonne Aridity Index. Aiming to affirm the climatic attribute of Lebanon; however, ten climatic stations were investigated. They are with representative geographic setting and diverse time series in the coastal zone of Lebanon were investigated. Even though, Lebanon is known as a semi-arid region, yet results in this study show that the studied zone does not evidence any drought, since around 70% of the investigated years are characterized by semi-humid to humid climate. This climatic figure is well pronounced since rainfall rate exceeds 900 mm, average temperature rate is about 19 °C, and snow remains for a couple of months annually.

  10. Generalized provisional seed zones for native plants

    Treesearch

    Andrew D. Bower; J. Bradley St.Clair; Vicky Erickson

    2014-01-01

    Deploying well-adapted and ecologically appropriate plant materials is a core component of successful restoration projects. We have developed generalized provisional seed zones that can be applied to any plant species in the United States to help guide seed movement. These seed zones are based on the intersection of high-resolution climatic data for winter minimum...

  11. Particulate matter time-series and Köppen-Geiger climate classes in North America and Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pražnikar, Jure

    2017-02-01

    Four years of time-series data on the particulate matter (PM) concentrations from 801 monitoring stations located in Europe and 234 stations in North America were analyzed. Using k-means clustering with distance correlation as a measure for similarity, 5 distinct PM clusters in Europe and 9 clusters across the United States of America (USA) were found. This study shows that meteorology has an important role in controlling PM concentrations, as comparison between Köppen-Geiger climate zones and identified PM clusters revealed very good spatial overlapping. Moreover, the Köppen-Geiger boundaries in Europe show a high similarity to the boundaries as defined by PM clusters. The western USA is much more diverse regarding climate zones; this characteristic was confirmed by cluster analysis, as 6 clusters were identified in the west, and only 3 were identified on the eastern side of the USA. The lowest similarity between PM time-series in Europe was observed between the Iberian Peninsula and the north Europe clusters. These two regions also show considerable differences, as the cold semi-arid climate has a long and hot summer period, while the cool continental climate has a short summertime and long and cold winters. Additionally, intra-continental examination of European clusters showed meteorologically driven phenomena in autumn 2011 encompassing a large European region from Bulgaria in the south, Germany in central Europe and Finland in the north with high PM concentrations in November and a decline in December 2011. Inter-continental comparison between Europe and the USA clusters revealed a remarkable difference between the PM time-series located in humid continental zone. It seems that because of higher shortwave downwelling radiation (≈210 W m-2) over the USA's continental zone, and consequently more intense production of secondary aerosols, a summer peak in PM concentration was observed. On the other hand, Europe's humid continental climate region experiences

  12. Development, implementation and evaluation of a pedestrian safety zone for elderly pedestrians

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1998-02-01

    The objectives of this study were to develop and apply procedures for defining pedestrian safety zones for the older (age 65+) adult and to develop, implement and evaluate a countermeasure program in the defined zones. Zone definition procedures were...

  13. What are the effects of Agro-Ecological Zones and land use region boundaries on land resource projection using the Global Change Assessment Model?

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Kyle, Page; Collins, William D.

    Understanding potential impacts of climate change is complicated by spatially mismatched land representations between gridded datasets and models, and land use models with larger regions defined by geopolitical and/or biophysical criteria. Here in this study, we quantify the sensitivity of Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) outputs to the delineation of Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs), which are normally based on historical (1961–1990) climate. We reconstruct GCAM's land regions using projected (2071–2100) climate, and find large differences in estimated future land use that correspond with differences in agricultural commodity prices and production volumes. Importantly, historically delineated AEZs experience spatially heterogeneous climate impacts overmore » time, and do not necessarily provide more homogenous initial land productivity than projected AEZs. Finally, we conclude that non-climatic criteria for land use region delineation are likely preferable for modeling land use change in the context of climate change, and that uncertainty associated with land delineation needs to be quantified.« less

  14. What are the effects of Agro-Ecological Zones and land use region boundaries on land resource projection using the Global Change Assessment Model?

    DOE PAGES

    Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Kyle, Page; Collins, William D.

    2016-09-03

    Understanding potential impacts of climate change is complicated by spatially mismatched land representations between gridded datasets and models, and land use models with larger regions defined by geopolitical and/or biophysical criteria. Here in this study, we quantify the sensitivity of Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) outputs to the delineation of Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs), which are normally based on historical (1961–1990) climate. We reconstruct GCAM's land regions using projected (2071–2100) climate, and find large differences in estimated future land use that correspond with differences in agricultural commodity prices and production volumes. Importantly, historically delineated AEZs experience spatially heterogeneous climate impacts overmore » time, and do not necessarily provide more homogenous initial land productivity than projected AEZs. Finally, we conclude that non-climatic criteria for land use region delineation are likely preferable for modeling land use change in the context of climate change, and that uncertainty associated with land delineation needs to be quantified.« less

  15. Forest expansion and climate change in the Mountain Hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana) zone, Lassen Volcanic National Park, California, U.S.A.

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Taylor, A.H.

    1995-08-01

    The relationship between climate change and the dynamics of ecotonal populations of mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana [Bong.] Carr.) was determined by comparing climate and the age structure of trees from 24 plots and seedlings from 13 plots in the subalpine zone of Lassen Volcanic National Park, California. Tree establishment was greatest during periods with above normal annual and summer temperatures, and normal or above normal precipitation. Seedling establishment was positively correlated with above normal annual and summer temperatures and negatively correlated with April snowpack depth. The different responses of trees and seedlings to precipitation variation is probably related to sitemore » soil moisture conditions. Mountain hemlock populations began to expand in 1842 and establishment increased dramatically after 1880 and peaked during a warm mesic period between 1895 and 1910. The onset of forest expansion coincides with warming that began at the end of the Little Ice Age (1850-1880). These data indicate that stability of the mountain hemlock ecotone is strongly influenced by climate. If warming induced by greenhouse gases does occur as climate models predict, then the structure and dynamics of near timberline forests in the Pacific Northwest will change. 52 refs., 8 figs., 3 tabs.« less

  16. Defining climate modeling user needs: which data are actually required to support impact analysis and adaptation policy development?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swart, R. J.; Pagé, C.

    2010-12-01

    Until recently, the policy applications of Earth System Models in general and climate models in particular were focusing mainly on the potential future changes in the global and regional climate and attribution of observed changes to anthropogenic activities. Is climate change real? And if so, why do we have to worry about it? Following the broad acceptance of the reality of the risks by the majority of governments, particularly after the publication of IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report and the increasing number of observations of changes in ecological and socio-economic systems that are consistent with the observed climatic changes, governments, companies and other societal groups have started to evaluate their own vulnerability in more detail and to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies. After an early focus on the most vulnerable developing countries, recently, an increasing number of industrialized countries have embarked on the design of adaptation and mitigation plans, or on studies to evaluate the level of climate resilience of their development plans and projects. Which climate data are actually required to effectively support these activities? This paper reports on the efforts of the IS-ENES project, the infrastructure project of the European Network for Earth System Modeling, to address this question. How do we define user needs and can the existing gap between the climate modeling and impact research communities be bridged in support of the ENES long-term strategy? In contrast from the climate modeling community, which has a relatively long history of collaboration facilitated by a relatively uniform subject matter, commonly agreed definitions of key terminology and some level of harmonization of methods, the climate change impacts research community is very diverse and fragmented, using a wide variety of data sources, methods and tools. An additional complicating factor is that researchers working on adaptation usually closely collaborate with non

  17. Work zone performance measures pilot test.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2011-04-01

    Currently, a well-defined and validated set of metrics to use in monitoring work zone performance do not : exist. This pilot test was conducted to assist state DOTs in identifying what work zone performance : measures can and should be targeted, what...

  18. Climate change impacts on rural poverty in low-elevation coastal zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barbier, Edward B.

    2015-11-01

    This paper identifies the low-elevation coastal zone (LECZ) populations and developing regions most vulnerable to sea-level rise and other coastal hazards, such as storm surges, coastal erosion and salt-water intrusion. The focus is on the rural poor in the LECZ, as their economic livelihoods are especially endangered both directly by coastal hazards and indirectly through the impacts of climate change on key coastal and near-shore ecosystems. Using geo-spatially referenced malnutrition and infant mortality data for 2000 as a proxy for poverty, this study finds that just 15 developing countries contain over 90% of the world's LECZ rural poor. Low-income countries as a group have the highest incidence of poverty, which declines somewhat for lower middle-income countries, and then is much lower for upper middle-income economies. South Asia, East Asia and the Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa account for most of the world's LECZ rural poor, and have a high incidence of poverty among their rural LECZ populations. Although fostering growth, especially in coastal areas, may reduce rural poverty in the LECZ, additional policy actions will be required to protect vulnerable communities from disasters, to conserve and restore key coastal and near-shore ecosystems, and to promote key infrastructure investments and coastal community response capability.

  19. Recent findings relating to firefighter safety zones

    Treesearch

    Bret Butler; Russ Parsons; William Mell

    2015-01-01

    Designation of safety zones is a primary duty of all wildland firefighters. Unfortunately, information regarding what constitutes an adequate safety zone is inadequately defined. Measurements of energy release from wildland fires have been used to develop an empirically based safety zone guideline. The basis for this work is described here.

  20. Vadose Zone Hydrology and Eco-hydrology in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Wenke

    2016-04-01

    Vadose zone hydrology has long been a concern regarding groundwater recharge, evaporation, pollution, and the ecological effects induced by groundwater and water & salt contents in the unsaturated zone. The greater difference between day and night temperatures in arid and semi-arid areas influences water movement and heat transport in the vadose zone, and further influences the water and heat fluxes between the water table and the atmosphere as well as ecological environment. Unfortunately, these studies are lack in a systematic viewpoint in China. One of the main reasons is that the movement of water, vapor and heat from the surface to the water table is very complex in the arid and semi-arid areas. Another reason is lack of long term field observations for water content, vapor, heat, and soil matrix potential in the vadose zone. Three field observation sites, designed by the author, were set up to measure the changes in climate, water content , temperature and soil matrix potential of the unsaturated zone and groundwater level under the different conditions of climate and soil types over the period of 1-5 years. They are located at the Zhunngger Basin of Xinjing Uygur Autonomous Region in northwestern China, the Guanzhong Basin of Shaanxi Province in central China, and the Ordos Basin of the Inner Monggol Autonomous Region in north China, respectively. These three field observation sites have different climate and soil types in the vadose zone and the water table depth are also varied. Based on the observation data of climate, groundwater level, water content, temperature and soil matrix potential in the vadose zone from the three sites in associated with the field survey and numerical simulation method, the water movement and heat transport in the vadose zone, and the evaporation of phreatic water for different groundwater depths and soil types have been well explored. The differences in water movement of unsaturated zone between the bare surface soil and

  1. Assessment of projected climate change in the Carpathian Region using the Holdridge life zone system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szelepcsényi, Zoltán; Breuer, Hajnalka; Kis, Anna; Pongrácz, Rita; Sümegi, Pál

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, expected changes in the spatial and altitudinal distribution patterns of Holdridge life zone (HLZ) types are analysed to assess the possible ecological impacts of future climate change for the Carpathian Region, by using 11 bias-corrected regional climate model simulations of temperature and precipitation. The distribution patterns of HLZ types are characterized by the relative extent, the mean centre and the altitudinal range. According to the applied projections, the following conclusions can be drawn: (a) the altitudinal ranges are likely to expand in the future, (b) the lower and upper altitudinal limits as well as the altitudinal midpoints may move to higher altitudes, (c) a northward shift is expected for most HLZ types and (d) the magnitudes of these shifts can even be multiples of those observed in the last century. Related to the northward shifts, the HLZ types warm temperate thorn steppe and subtropical dry forest can also appear in the southern segment of the target area. However, a large uncertainty in the estimated changes of precipitation patterns was indicated by the following: (a) the expected change in the coverage of the HLZ type cool temperate steppe is extremely uncertain because there is no consensus among the projections even in terms of the sign of the change (high inter-model variability) and (b) a significant trend in the westward/eastward shift is simulated just for some HLZ types (high temporal variability). Finally, it is important to emphasize that the uncertainty of our results is further enhanced by the fact that some important aspects (e.g. seasonality of climate variables, direct CO2 effect, etc.) cannot be considered in the estimating process.

  2. The Evolution of Root Zone Storage Capacity after Land Use Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nijzink, Remko C.; Hutton, Christopher; Pechlivanidis, Ilias; Capell, René; Arheimer, Berit; Wagener, Thorsten; Savenije, Hubert H. G.; Hrachowitz, Markus

    2016-04-01

    Root zone storage capacity forms a crucial parameter in ecosystem functioning as it is the key parameter that determines the partitioning between runoff and transpiration. There is increasing evidence from several case studies for specific plants that vegetation adapts to the critical situation of droughts. For example, trees will, on the long term, try to improve their internal hydraulic conductivity after droughts, for example by allocating more biomass for roots. In spite of this understanding, the water storage capacity in the root zone is often treated as constant in hydrological models. In this study, it was hypothesized that root zone storage capacities are altered by deforestation and the regrowth of the ecosystem. Three deforested sub catchments as well as not affected, nearby control catchments of the experimental forests of HJ Andrews and Hubbard Brook were selected for this purpose. Root zone storage capacities were on the one hand estimated by a climate-based approach similar to Gao et al. (2014), making use of simple water balance considerations to determine the evaporative demand of the system. In this way, the maximum deficit between evaporative demand and precipitation allows a robust estimation of the root zone storage capacity. On the other hand, three conceptual hydrological models (FLEX, HYPE, HYMOD) were calibrated in a moving window approach for all catchments. The obtained model parameter values representing the root zone storage capacities of the individual catchments for each moving window period were then compared to the estimates derived from climate data for the same periods. Model- and climate-derived estimates of root zone storage capacities both showed a similar evolution. In the deforested catchments, considerable reductions of the root zone storage capacities, compared to the pre-treatment situation and control catchments, were observed. In addition, the years after forest clearing were characterized by a gradual recovery of the

  3. Long-term climate patterns in Alaskan surface temperature and precipitation and their biological consequences

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Simpson, James J.; Hufford, Gary L.; Fleming, Michael D.; Berg, Jared S.; Ashton, J.B.

    2002-01-01

    Mean monthly climate maps of Alaskan surface temperature and precipitation produced by the parameter-elevation regression on independent slopes model (PRISM) were analyzed. Alaska is divided into interior and coastal zones with consistent but different climatic variability separated by a transition region; it has maximum interannual variability but low long-term mean variability. Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)- and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-type events influence Alaska surface temperatures weakly (1-2/spl deg/C) statewide. PDO has a stronger influence than ENSO on precipitation but its influence is largely localized to coastal central Alaska. The strongest influence of Arctic oscillation (AO) occurs in northern and interior Alaskan precipitation. Four major ecosystems are defined. A major eco-transition zone occurs between the interior boreal forest and the coastal rainforest. Variability in insolation, surface temperature, precipitation, continentality, and seasonal changes in storm track direction explain the mapped ecosystems. Lack of westward expansion of the interior boreal forest into the western shrub tundra is influenced by the coastal marine boundary layer (enhanced cloud cover, reduced insolation, cooler surface and soil temperatures).

  4. Assessing the hydrological response from an ensemble of CMIP5 climate projections in the transition zone of the Atlantic region (Bay of Biscay)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meaurio, Maite; Zabaleta, Ane; Boithias, Laurie; Epelde, Ane Miren; Sauvage, Sabine; Sánchez-Pérez, Jose-Miguel; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Antiguedad, Iñaki

    2017-05-01

    The climate changes projected for the 21st century will have consequences on the hydrological response of catchments. These changes, and their consequences, are most uncertain in the transition zones. The study area, in the Bay of Biscay, is located in the transition zone of the European Atlantic region, where hydrological impact of climate change was scarcely studied. In order to address this scarcity, the hydrological impacts of climate change on river discharge were assessed. To do so, a hydrological modelling was carried out considering 16 climate scenarios that include 5 General Circulation Models (GCM) from the 5th report of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), 2 statistical downscaling methods and 2 Representative Concentration Pathways. Projections for future discharge (2011-2100) were divided into three 30-year horizons (2030s, 2060s and 2090s) and a comparison was made between these time horizons and the baseline (1961-2000). The results show that the downscaling method used resulted in a higher source of uncertainty than GCM itself. In addition, the uncertainties inherent to the methods used at all the levels do not affect the results equally along the year. In spite of those uncertainties, general trends for the 2090s predict seasonal discharge decreases by around -17% in autumn, -16% in spring, -11% in winter and -7% in summer. These results are in line with those predicted for the Atlantic region (France and the Iberian Peninsula). Trends for extreme flows were also analysed: the most significant show an increase in the duration (days) of low flows. From an environmental point of view, and considering the need to meet the objectives established by the Water Framework Directive (WFD), this will be a major challenge for the future planning on water management.

  5. Differences in quantitative assessment of myocardial scar and gray zone by LGE-CMR imaging using established gray zone protocols.

    PubMed

    Mesubi, Olurotimi; Ego-Osuala, Kelechi; Jeudy, Jean; Purtilo, James; Synowski, Stephen; Abutaleb, Ameer; Niekoop, Michelle; Abdulghani, Mohammed; Asoglu, Ramazan; See, Vincent; Saliaris, Anastasios; Shorofsky, Stephen; Dickfeld, Timm

    2015-02-01

    Late gadolinium enhancement cardiac magnetic resonance (LGE-CMR) imaging is the gold standard for myocardial scar evaluation. Heterogeneous areas of scar ('gray zone'), may serve as arrhythmogenic substrate. Various gray zone protocols have been correlated to clinical outcomes and ventricular tachycardia channels. This study assessed the quantitative differences in gray zone and scar core sizes as defined by previously validated signal intensity (SI) threshold algorithms. High quality LGE-CMR images performed in 41 cardiomyopathy patients [ischemic (33) or non-ischemic (8)] were analyzed using previously validated SI threshold methods [Full Width at Half Maximum (FWHM), n-standard deviation (NSD) and modified-FWHM]. Myocardial scar was defined as scar core and gray zone using SI thresholds based on these methods. Scar core, gray zone and total scar sizes were then computed and compared among these models. The median gray zone mass was 2-3 times larger with FWHM (15 g, IQR: 8-26 g) compared to NSD or modified-FWHM (5 g, IQR: 3-9 g; and 8 g. IQR: 6-12 g respectively, p < 0.001). Conversely, infarct core mass was 2.3 times larger with NSD (30 g, IQR: 17-53 g) versus FWHM and modified-FWHM (13 g, IQR: 7-23 g, p < 0.001). The gray zone extent (percentage of total scar that was gray zone) also varied significantly among the three methods, 51 % (IQR: 42-61 %), 17 % (IQR: 11-21 %) versus 38 % (IQR: 33-43 %) for FWHM, NSD and modified-FWHM respectively (p < 0.001). Considerable variability exists among the current methods for MRI defined gray zone and scar core. Infarct core and total myocardial scar mass also differ using these methods. Further evaluation of the most accurate quantification method is needed.

  6. Competencies Framework for Climate Services.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aguilar, Enric

    2016-04-01

    The World Climate Conference-3 (Geneva, 2009) established the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) to enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change and adaptation to climate change at all levels, through development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice. The GFCS defines Climate Services as the result of transforming climate data into climate information in a way that responds to user needs and assists decision-making by individuals and organizations. Capacity Development is a cross-cutting pillar of the GFCS to ensure that services are provided by institutions with professionals whom achieved the adequate set of competencies recommended by WMO, which are yet to be fully defined. The WMO-Commission for Climatology Expert Team on Education and Training, ET-ETR, has been working to define a Competencies Framework for Climate Services to help the institutions to deliver high quality climate services in compliance with WMO standards and regulations, specifically those defined by WMO's Commission for Climatology and the GFCS. This framework is based in 5 areas or competence, closely associated to the areas of work of climate services providers: create and manage climate data sets; derive products from climate data; create and/or interpret climate forecasts and model output; ensure the quality of climate information and services; communicate climatological information with users. With this contribution, we intend to introduce to a wider audience the rationale behind these 5 top-level competency statements and the performance criteria associated with them, as well as the plans of the ET-ETR for further developing them into an instrument to support education and training within the WMO members, specially the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.

  7. Effects of Climate Change on Stratification-Destratification Cycles and Resulting Cyanobacterial Blooms in Shallow Lakes of the North Temperate Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, A. T.; Schaffner, L. R.; Gilman, B.; Gronwall, T. R.; Gronwall, D.; Dietz, E. R.; Hairston, N., Jr.

    2016-12-01

    "Harmful Algal Blooms" of cyanobacteria (cyanoHABs) have become more frequent and larger in extent for inland waters across the globe. Honeoye Lake, the shallowest of the New York State Finger Lakes (9 m max depth, 7 km long), has experienced recent problematic blooms. We use this lake as a model system for understanding the effects of climate change on cyanoHABs in shallow lakes. Cyanobacteria thrive in warm waters with high phosphorus concentrations. While high P is often caused by external nutrient loading via surface runoff, it can also result from internal loading when P-rich sediment is exposed to anoxic/reducing conditions in a lake's hypolimnion after prolonged stratification. In deep lakes, hypolimnetic water remains isolated from the epilimnion throughout the summer with the dissolved P separated from illuminated surface water; in very shallow lakes where the entire water column remains oxygenated/oxidizing, P is bound in insoluble inorganic complexes. However, in lakes of intermediate depth, hypolimnetic water high in soluble reactive P may mix into the photic zone if sufficiently strong winds occur, stimulating a cyanoHAB. We suggest that repeated cycles of stratification, hypolimnetic anoxia, and subsequent mixing may result in "phosphorus pumping" with recurrent cyanoHABs throughout summer. Climate change is causing stronger thermal stratification in lakes through increased surface warming but also causing more frequent storms that can break down stratification in a shallow lake. We use Honeoye Lake as a model system for understanding the extent to which P-pumping occurs and the likely effects of climate change on cyanoHABs. Field data collected in summer 2016 were used to calibrate the publically available General Lake Model (GLM) to predict Honeoye's discontinuous polymictic pattern of stratification punctuated by overturn events and spikes in epilimnetic P and cyanobacterial biomass. We use the calibrated model to determine cyanoHAB incidence as a

  8. Assessment of Coastal Governance for Climate Change Adaptation in Kenya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ojwang, Lenice; Rosendo, Sergio; Celliers, Louis; Obura, David; Muiti, Anastasia; Kamula, James; Mwangi, Maina

    2017-11-01

    The coastline of Kenya already experiences effects of climate change, adding to existing pressures such as urbanization. Integrated coastal management (ICM) is increasingly recognized as a key policy response to deal with the multiple challenges facing coastal zones, including climate change. It can create an enabling governance environment for effective local action on climate change by facilitating a structured approach to dealing with coastal issues. It encompasses the actions of a wide range of actors, including local governments close to people and their activities affected by climate change. Functioning ICM also offers opportunities for reducing risks and building resilience. This article applied a modified capitals approach framework (CAF), consisting of five "capitals," to assess the status of county government capacity to respond to climate change within the context of coastal governance in three county governments in Kenya. The baseline was defined in terms of governance relating to the implementation of the interrelated policy systems of ICM and coastal climate change adaptation (CCA). The CAF framework provided a systematic approach to building a governance baseline against which to assess the progress of county governments in responding to climate change. It identified gaps in human capacity, financial resource allocation to adaptation and access to climate change information. Furthermore, it showed that having well-developed institutions, including regulatory frameworks at the national level can facilitate but does not automatically enable adaptation at the county level.

  9. How Has Human-induced Climate Change Affected California Drought Risk?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, L.; Hoerling, M. P.; Aghakouchak, A.; Livneh, B.; Quan, X. W.; Eischeid, J. K.

    2015-12-01

    The current California drought has cast a heavy burden on statewide agriculture and water resources, further exacerbated by concurrent extreme high temperatures. Furthermore, industrial-era global radiative forcing brings into question the role of long-term climate change on CA drought. How has human-induced climate change affected California drought risk? Here, observations and model experimentation are applied to characterize this drought employing metrics that synthesize drought duration, cumulative precipitation deficit, and soil moisture depletion. The model simulations show that increases in radiative forcing since the late 19th Century induces both increased annual precipitation and increased surface temperature over California, consistent with prior model studies and with observed long-term change. As a result, there is no material difference in the frequency of droughts defined using bivariate indicators of precipitation and near-surface (10-cm) soil moisture, because shallow soil moisture responds most sensitively to increased evaporation driven by warming, which compensates the increase in the precipitation. However, when using soil moisture within a deep root zone layer (1-m) as co-variate, droughts become less frequent because deep soil moisture responds most sensitively to increased precipitation. The results illustrate the different land surface responses to anthropogenic forcing that are relevant for near-surface moisture exchange and for root zone moisture availability. The latter is especially relevant for agricultural impacts as the deep layer dictates moisture availability for plants, trees, and many crops. The results thus indicate the net effect of climate change has made agricultural drought less likely, and that the current severe impacts of drought on California's agriculture has not been substantially caused by long-term climate changes.

  10. 33 CFR 165.775 - Safety Zone; Captain of the Port Zone Jacksonville; Offshore Cape Canaveral, Florida.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    .... Zone A originates from the baseline at position 28°45.7′ N, 080°42.7′ W; then proceeds northeast to 28... the baseline at position 28°31.3′ N, 080°33.4′ W. (2) Zone (B) is defined by four latitude and longitude corner points. Zone B originates from the baseline at position 28°40.1′ N, 080°38.4′ W; then...

  11. Defining and Responding to Issues of Canada's Coastal Zones.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Diamond, Lawrence

    1984-01-01

    Defines and discusses critical issues for each of Canada's coastal regions (Pacific, Arctic, Atlantic, and Great Lakes) in environmental, technological, social, and political contexts; reviews recent efforts to obtain and use environmental information; and highlights alternative ways of achieving better stewardship. (Author/DH)

  12. Evaluating meteo marine climatic model inputs for the investigation of coastal hydrodynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bellafiore, D.; Bucchignani, E.; Umgiesser, G.

    2010-09-01

    One of the major aspects discussed in the recent works on climate change is how to provide information from the global scale to the local one. In fact the influence of sea level rise and changes in the meteorological conditions due to climate change in strategic areas like the coastal zone is at the base of the well known mitigation and risk assessment plans. The investigation of the coastal zone hydrodynamics, from a modeling point of view, has been the field for the connection between hydraulic models and ocean models and, in terms of process studies, finite element models have demonstrated their suitability in the reproduction of complex coastal morphology and in the capability to reproduce different spatial scale hydrodynamic processes. In this work the connection between two different model families, the climate models and the hydrodynamic models usually implemented for process studies, is tested. Together, they can be the most suitable tool for the investigation of climate change on coastal systems. A finite element model, SHYFEM (Shallow water Hydrodynamic Finite Element Model), is implemented on the Adriatic Sea, to investigate the effect of wind forcing datasets produced by different downscaling from global climate models in terms of surge and its coastal effects. The wind datasets are produced by the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CIRA), and by EBU-POM model (Belgrade University), both downscaling from ECHAM4. As a first step the downscaled wind datasets, that have different spatial resolutions, has been analyzed for the period 1960-1990 to compare what is their capability to reproduce the measured wind statistics in the coastal zone in front of the Venice Lagoon. The particularity of the Adriatic Sea meteo climate is connected with the influence of the orography in the strengthening of winds like Bora, from North-East. The increase in spatial resolution permits the more resolved wind dataset to better reproduce meteorology and to provide a more

  13. Defining the Brittle Failure Envelopes of Individual Reaction Zones Observed in CO2-Exposed Wellbore Cement.

    PubMed

    Hangx, Suzanne J T; van der Linden, Arjan; Marcelis, Fons; Liteanu, Emilia

    2016-01-19

    To predict the behavior of the cement sheath after CO2 injection and the potential for leakage pathways, it is key to understand how the mechanical properties of the cement evolves with CO2 exposure time. We performed scratch-hardness tests on hardened samples of class G cement before and after CO2 exposure. The cement was exposed to CO2-rich fluid for one to six months at 65 °C and 8 MPa Ptotal. Detailed SEM-EDX analyses showed reaction zones similar to those previously reported in the literature: (1) an outer-reacted, porous silica-rich zone; (2) a dense, carbonated zone; and (3) a more porous, Ca-depleted inner zone. The quantitative mechanical data (brittle compressive strength and friction coefficient) obtained for each of the zones suggest that the heterogeneity of reacted cement leads to a wide range of brittle strength values in any of the reaction zones, with only a rough dependence on exposure time. However, the data can be used to guide numerical modeling efforts needed to assess the impact of reaction-induced mechanical failure of wellbore cement by coupling sensitivity analysis and mechanical predictions.

  14. Vegetation Response to Climatic Variations in the southern African tropics during the Late- Pleistocene and Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beuning, K. R.; Zimmerman, K. A.; Ivory, S. J.; Cohen, A. S.

    2007-12-01

    Pollen records from Lake Malawi, Africa spanning the last 135 kyr show substantial and abrupt vegetation response to multiple episodes of extreme aridity during the mega-drought period (130-90 ka). In contrast, vegetation composition and relative abundance remained fairly constant throughout the last 75 ka with no significant change during the Last Glacial Maxima (LGM) (35-15 ka). During the extremely arid mega-drought time period, fluctuations in pollen production define three distinct zones. The first zone, from 123-117 ka, is characterized by increasing amounts of grass, and decreasing amounts of both Podocarpus and evergreen forest taxa (i.e. Celtis, Ixora, Myrica, Macaranga), which, when matched with charcoal data, suggests a short period of extreme aridity. The disappearance of Brachystegia in this interval in conjunction with a peak in Amaranthaceae suggests conversion of the surrounding miombo woodland to an open grassland community probably caused by increased seasonality with a more prolonged and arid dry season. Peak amounts of Podocarpus (30-40%) along with diminishing levels of grass distinguish zone two (117-105 ka). This assemblage defines zone 2 as a period marked by a cool, dry climate resulting in expansion of montane forest taxa to lower elevations. Marine palynological records from the Angola Margin and Congo Fan show similar peak Podocarpus percentages at this time (oxygen isotope stage 5d) indicating similar latitudinal climates across the African continent. Zone three (105-75 ka) shows the highest and most consistent levels of Poaceae. This evidence, along with markedly low levels of most other taxa, indicates that this period contained the most sustained long-lasting dry spells during the past 135 ka. This episode in African history was severe enough as to cause the disappearance of forest taxa such as Uapaca and Brachystegia as well as montane taxa ( Podocarpus, Olea spp. and Ericaceae) within the pollen source area of Lake Malawi. The

  15. Construction Guide to Next-Generation High-Performance Walls in Climate Zones 3-5 - Part 2: 2x4 Walls

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kochkin, V.; Wiehagen, J.

    2017-06-01

    Part 2 of this Construction Guide to High-Performance Walls in Climate Zones 3-5 provides straightforward and cost-effective strategies to construct durable, energy-efficient walls. It addresses walls constructed with 2x4 wood frame studs, wood structural panel (WSP) sheathing as wall bracing and added backing for foam sheathing, a layer of rigid foam sheathing insulation up to 1.5 inches thick over the WSP, and a cladding system installed over the foam sheathing in low-rise residential buildings up to three stories high. Walls with 2x6 framing are addressed in Part 1 of the Guide.

  16. Construction Guide to Next-Generation High-Performance Walls in Climate Zones 3-5 - Part 2: 2x4 Walls

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kochkin, V.; Wiehagen, J.

    Part 2 of this Construction Guide to High-Performance Walls in Climate Zones 3-5 provides straightforward and cost-effective strategies to construct durable, energy-efficient walls. It addresses walls constructed with 2x4 wood frame studs, wood structural panel (WSP) sheathing as wall bracing and added backing for foam sheathing, a layer of rigid foam sheathing insulation up to 1.5 inches thick over the WSP, and a cladding system installed over the foam sheathing in low-rise residential buildings up to three stories high. Walls with 2x6 framing are addressed in Part 1 of the Guide.

  17. Koeppen Bioclimatic Metrics for Evaluating CMIP5 Simulations of Historical Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phillips, T. J.; Bonfils, C.

    2012-12-01

    The classic Koeppen bioclimatic classification scheme associates generic vegetation types (e.g. grassland, tundra, broadleaf or evergreen forests, etc.) with regional climate zones defined by the observed amplitude and phase of the annual cycles of continental temperature (T) and precipitation (P). Koeppen classification thus can provide concise, multivariate metrics for evaluating climate model performance in simulating the regional magnitudes and seasonalities of climate variables that are of critical importance for living organisms. In this study, 14 Koeppen vegetation types are derived from annual-cycle climatologies of T and P in some 3 dozen CMIP5 simulations of 1980-1999 climate, a period when observational data provides a reliable global validation standard. Metrics for evaluating the ability of the CMIP5 models to simulate the correct locations and areas of the vegetation types, as well as measures of overall model performance, also are developed. It is found that the CMIP5 models are most deficient in simulating 1) the climates of the drier zones (e.g. desert, savanna, grassland, steppe vegetation types) that are located in the Southwestern U.S. and Mexico, Eastern Europe, Southern Africa, and Central Australia, as well as 2) the climate of regions such as Central Asia and Western South America where topography plays a central role. (Detailed analysis of regional biases in the annual cycles of T and P of selected simulations exemplifying general model performance problems also are to be presented.) The more encouraging results include evidence for a general improvement in CMIP5 performance relative to that of older CMIP3 models. Within CMIP5 also, the more complex Earth Systems Models (ESMs) with prognostic biogeochemistry perform comparably to the corresponding global models that simulate only the "physical" climate. Acknowledgments This work was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science and was performed at the Lawrence Livermore

  18. Climate variability controls on unsaturated water and chemical movement, High Plains aquifer, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gurdak, J.J.; Hanson, R.T.; McMahon, P.B.; Bruce, B.W.; McCray, J.E.; Thyne, G.D.; Reedy, R.C.

    2007-01-01

    Responses in the vadose zone and groundwater to interannual, interdecadal, and multidecadal climate variability have important implications for groundwater resource sustainability, yet they are poorly documented and not well understood in most aquifers of the USA. This investigation systematically examines the role of interannual to multidecadal climate variability on groundwater levels, deep infiltration (3-23 m) events, and downward displacement (>1 m) of chloride and nitrate reservoirs in thick (15-50 m) vadose zones across the regionally extensive High Plains aquifer. Such vadose zone responses are unexpected across much of the aquifer given a priori that unsaturated total-potential profiles indicate upward water movement from the water table toward the root zone, mean annual potential evapotranspiration exceeds mean annual precipitation, and millennia-scale evapoconcentration results in substantial vadose zone chloride and nitrate reservoirs. Using singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to reconstruct precipitation and groundwater level time-series components, variability was identified in all time series as partially coincident with known climate cycles, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (10-25 yr) and the El Nin??o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (2-6 yr). Using these lag-correlated hydrologic time series, a new method is demonstrated to estimate climate-varying unsaturated water flux. The results suggest the importance of interannual to interdecadal climate variability on water-flux estimation in thick vadose zones and provide better understanding of the climate-induced transients responsible for the observed deep infiltration and chemical-mobilization events. Based on these results, we discuss implications for climate-related sustainability of the High Plains aquifer. ?? Soil Science Society of America.

  19. Holocene Vegetation and Climate Shifts from Sutherland Fen, Black Rock Forest, New York - Plant Macrofossils, Charcoal, and Carbon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peteet, D. M.; Guilderson, T.

    2008-12-01

    Sutherland Fen formed about 12,600 C-14 years ago (15,000 calendar years), the same time as adjacent Sutherland Pond and regional deglaciation. High-resolution (2 cm) analysis of the 3.2 m fen core indicates three major macrofossils zones indicative of climate shifts. These climate shifts were defined over fifty years ago through pollen stratigraphy of the regional northeastern US, but macrofossils provide new details concerning hydrological and ecological shifts. The lowest (SUB-1) dated to the late-glacial, is indicative of a shallow pond characterized by Najas, Nuphar, and Potamogeton seeds and containing Salix (willow) buds, a Rubus (berry) seed, and Picea glauca (white spruce) needles and sterigmata from the surrounding upland. Sedimention rates are highest in this boreal environmental zone. The overlying zone (SUB-2) beginning at 11,500 years ago (Holocene) indicates a continuing pond environment with aquatics such as Najas, Nuphar, and Brasenia, but Picea disappears and Pinus strobus (white pine) dominates the lower section of the zone. A warmer, drier climate produces sustained charcoal in the record at the Holocene boundary. Pinus strobus needles and seeds subsequently disappear and are replaced from 9000 to 7500 years ago by Pinus rigida (pitch pine), Betula populifolia/papyrifera (grey/paper birch), and emergent wetland plants such as Decodon, Cladium, and Cephalanthus, as well as Dulichium, Eleocharis, and Carex, suggesting a shallowing pond and a drier climate. Chara oospores indicate probably groundwater influx into the fen. About 4000 years ago, charcoal again is present. In the subsequent late Holocene a more acidic, moist, fen environment is characterized by Sphagnum, Rubus, Hypericum, Viola, Chamaedaphne, and Carex, though Brasenia and Potamogeton (pond indicators) are occasionally present. The continued presence of Sphagnum led to high carbon accumulation because of less decomposition. This increase in Sphagnum in recent millennia with aquatics

  20. Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Morelli, Toni L.; Jackson, Stephen T.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

  1. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

    PubMed

    Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Dulen, Deanna M; Ebersole, Joseph L; Jackson, Stephen T; Lundquist, Jessica D; Millar, Constance I; Maher, Sean P; Monahan, William B; Nydick, Koren R; Redmond, Kelly T; Sawyer, Sarah C; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

  2. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  3. Climate-induced change of environmentally defined floristic domains: A conservation based vulnerability framework

    Treesearch

    Debbie Jewitt; Barend F.N. Erasmus; Peter S. Goodman; Timothy G. O' Connor; William W. Hargrove; Damian M. Maddalena; Ed. T.F. Witkowski

    2015-01-01

    Global climate change is having marked influences on species distributions, phenology and ecosystem composition and raises questions as to the effectiveness of current conservation strategies. Conservation planning has only recently begun to adequately account for dynamic threats such as climate change. We propose a method to incorporate climate-dynamic environmental...

  4. Le Climat d'Apprentissage; Analyse Conceptuelle=Learning Climate: A Conceptual Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Michaud, Pierre; And Others

    1989-01-01

    Analyzes and defines the concept of "learning climate." Discusses the conceptual models of Biddle and Brookover. Considers the use of observation techniques and surveys to measure learning climate. Reviews research on the relationship between learning climate and the attainment of course and institutional objectives. (DMM)

  5. Defining and predicting urban-wildland interface zones using a GIS-based model

    Treesearch

    Lawrence R. Gering; Angel V. Chun; Steve Anderson

    2000-01-01

    Resource managers are beginning to experience a deluge of management conflicts as urban population centers expand into formerly wildland settings. Fire suppression, recreational, watershed management, and traditional forest management practices are activities that have become contentious in many locales. A better understanding of the interface zone between these two...

  6. Exploring the Interactions between Land Use, Climate Change and Carbon Cycle using Satellite Measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ray, R. L.; Fares, A.; He, Y.; Awal, R.; Risch, E.

    2017-12-01

    Most climate change impacts are linked to terrestrial vegetation productivity, carbon stocks and land use change. Changes in land use and climate drive the dynamics of terrestrial carbon cycle. These carbon cycle dynamics operate at different spatial and temporal scales. Quantification of the spatial and temporal variability of carbon flux has been challenging because land-atmosphere-carbon exchange is influenced by many factors, including but not limited to, land use change and climate change and variability. The study of terrestrial carbon cycle, mainly gross primary product (GPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), soil organic carbon (SOC) and ecosystem respiration (Re) and their interactions with land use and climate change, are critical to understanding the terrestrial ecosystem. The main objective of this study was to examine the interactions among land use, climate change and terrestrial carbon cycling in the state of Texas using satellite measurements. We studied GPP, NEE, Re and SOC distributions for five selected major land covers and all ten climate zones in Texas using Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) carbon products. SMAP Carbon products (Res=9 km) were compared with observed CO2 flux data measured at EC flux site on Prairie View A&M University Research Farm. Results showed the same land cover in different climate zones has significantly different carbon sequestration potentials. For example, cropland of the humid climate zone has higher (-228 g C/m2) carbon sequestration potentials than the semiarid climate zone (-36 g C/m2). Also, shrub land in the humid zone and in the semiarid zone showed high (-120 g C/m2) and low (-36 g C/m2) potentials of carbon sequestration, respectively, in the state. Overall, the analyses indicate CO2 storage and exchange respond differently to various land covers, and environments due to differences in water availability, root distribution and soil properties.

  7. Exposure of trees to drought-induced die-off is defined by a common climatic threshold across different vegetation types

    PubMed Central

    Mitchell, Patrick J; O'Grady, Anthony P; Hayes, Keith R; Pinkard, Elizabeth A

    2014-01-01

    Increases in drought and temperature stress in forest and woodland ecosystems are thought to be responsible for the rise in episodic mortality events observed globally. However, key climatic drivers common to mortality events and the impacts of future extreme droughts on tree survival have not been evaluated. Here, we characterize climatic drivers associated with documented tree die-off events across Australia using standardized climatic indices to represent the key dimensions of drought stress for a range of vegetation types. We identify a common probabilistic threshold associated with an increased risk of die-off across all the sites that we examined. We show that observed die-off events occur when water deficits and maximum temperatures are high and exist outside 98% of the observed range in drought intensity; this threshold was evident at all sites regardless of vegetation type and climate. The observed die-off events also coincided with at least one heat wave (three consecutive days above the 90th percentile for maximum temperature), emphasizing a pivotal role of heat stress in amplifying tree die-off and mortality processes. The joint drought intensity and maximum temperature distributions were modeled for each site to describe the co-occurrence of both hot and dry conditions and evaluate future shifts in climatic thresholds associated with the die-off events. Under a relatively dry and moderate warming scenario, the frequency of droughts capable of inducing significant tree die-off across Australia could increase from 1 in 24 years to 1 in 15 years by 2050, accompanied by a doubling in the occurrence of associated heat waves. By defining commonalities in drought conditions capable of inducing tree die-off, we show a strong interactive effect of water and high temperature stress and provide a consistent approach for assessing changes in the exposure of ecosystems to extreme drought events. PMID:24772285

  8. 75 FR 19348 - Notice of Funding Availability (NOFA): Section 515 Rural Rental Housing Program for New...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-04-14

    ... this program will be equitably distributed across the country, and applied to all Five (5) Climate Zones within the U.S. as defined by the Department of Energy. A map of the 5 climate zones can be found at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/recs/climate_zone.html . The four highest scoring applications in...

  9. Urban spring phenology in the middle temperate zone of China: dynamics and influence factors.

    PubMed

    Liang, Shouzhen; Shi, Ping; Li, Hongzhong

    2016-04-01

    Urbanization and its resultant urban heat island provide a means for evaluating the impact of climate warming on vegetation phenology. To predict the possible response of vegetation phenology to rise of temperature, it is necessary to investigate factors influencing vegetation phenology in different climate zones. The start of growing season (SOS) in seven cities located in the middle temperate humid, semi-humid, semi-arid, and arid climate zones in China was extracted based on satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data. The dynamics of urban SOS from 2000 to 2009 and the correlations between urban SOS and land surface temperatures (LST), precipitation, and sunshine duration, respectively, were analyzed. The results showed that there were no obvious change trends for urban SOS, and the heat island induced by urbanization can make SOS earlier in urban areas than that in adjacent rural areas. And the impact of altitude on SOS was also not negligible in regions with obvious altitude difference between urban and adjacent rural areas. Precipitation and temperature were two main natural factors influencing urban SOS in the middle temperate zone, but their impacts varied with climate zones. Only in Harbin city with lower sunshine duration in spring, sunshine duration had more significant impact than temperature and precipitation. Interference of human activities on urban vegetation was non-negligible, which can lower the dependence of urban SOS on natural climatic factors.

  10. Fire season climatic zones of mainland Alaska.

    Treesearch

    William M. Trigg

    1971-01-01

    Calculated values of precipitation effectiveness index and temperature efficiency index for 48 weather observation stations on the Alaska mainland are used to delineate areas that have different climatic subclassifications during the wildfire season of April through September. The paper outlines procedures, provides maps showing step- by- step analysis along with the...

  11. Climatic drivers for multidecadal shifts in solute transport and methane production zones within a large peat basin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Glaser, Paul H.; Siegel, Donald I.; Chanton, Jeffrey P.; Reeve, Andrew S.; Rosenberry, Donald O.; Corbett, J. Elizabeth; Dasgupta, Soumitri; Levy, Zeno

    2016-01-01

    Northern peatlands are an important source for greenhouse gases, but their capacity to produce methane remains uncertain under changing climatic conditions. We therefore analyzed a 43 year time series of the pore-water chemistry to determine if long-term shifts in precipitation altered the vertical transport of solutes within a large peat basin in northern Minnesota. These data suggest that rates of methane production can be finely tuned to multidecadal shifts in precipitation that drive the vertical penetration of labile carbon substrates within the Glacial Lake Agassiz Peatlands. Tritium and cation profiles demonstrate that only the upper meter of these peat deposits was flushed by downwardly moving recharge from 1965 to 1983 during a Transitional Dry-to-Moist Period. However, a shift to a moister climate after 1984 drove surface waters much deeper, largely flushing the pore waters of all bogs and fens to depths of 2 m. Labile carbon compounds were transported downward from the rhizosphere to the basal peat at this time producing a substantial enrichment of methane in Δ14C with respect to the solid-phase peat from 1991 to 2008. These data indicate that labile carbon substrates can fuel deep production zones of methanogenesis that more than doubled in thickness across this large peat basin after 1984. Moreover, the entire peat profile apparently has the capacity to produce methane from labile carbon substrates depending on climate-driven modes of solute transport. Future changes in precipitation may therefore play a central role in determining the source strength of peatlands in the global methane cycle.

  12. How do climatic and management factors affect agricultural ecosystem services? A case study in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of northern China.

    PubMed

    Qiao, Jianmin; Yu, Deyong; Wu, Jianguo

    2018-02-01

    Agricultural ecosystem management needs to ensure food production and minimize soil erosion and nitrogen (N) leaching under climate change and increasingly intensive human activity. Thus, the mechanisms through which climatic and management factors affect crop production, soil erosion, and N leaching must be understood in order to ensure food security and sustainable agricultural development. In this study, we adopted the GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model to simulate crop production, soil erosion, and N leaching, and used a partial least squares regression model to evaluate the contributions of climate variables (solar radiation, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, and maximum and minimum temperature) and management factors (irrigation, fertilization, and crop cultivation area) on agricultural ecosystem services (AES) in the agro-pastoral transitional zone (APTZ) of northern China. The results indicated that crop production and N leaching markedly increased, whereas soil erosion declined from 1980 to 2010 in the APTZ. Management factors had larger effects on the AES than climate change. Among the climatic variables, daily minimum temperature was the most important contributor to the variations in ecosystem services of wheat, maize, and rice. Spatial changes in the cultivated area most affected crop production, soil erosion, and N leaching for majority of the cultivated areas of the three crops, except for the wheat-cultivated area, where the dominant factor for N leaching was fertilization. Although a tradeoff existed between crop production and negative environmental effects, compromises were possible. These findings provide new insights into the effects of climatic and management factors on AES, and have practical implications for improving crop production while minimizing negative environmental impacts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Latitude, elevational climatic zonation and speciation in New World vertebrates

    PubMed Central

    Cadena, Carlos Daniel; Kozak, Kenneth H.; Gómez, Juan Pablo; Parra, Juan Luis; McCain, Christy M.; Bowie, Rauri C. K.; Carnaval, Ana C.; Moritz, Craig; Rahbek, Carsten; Roberts, Trina E.; Sanders, Nathan J.; Schneider, Christopher J.; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Zamudio, Kelly R.; Graham, Catherine H.

    2012-01-01

    Many biodiversity hotspots are located in montane regions, especially in the tropics. A possible explanation for this pattern is that the narrow thermal tolerances of tropical species and greater climatic stratification of tropical mountains create more opportunities for climate-associated parapatric or allopatric speciation in the tropics relative to the temperate zone. However, it is unclear whether a general relationship exists among latitude, climatic zonation and the ecology of speciation. Recent taxon-specific studies obtained different results regarding the role of climate in speciation in tropical versus temperate areas. Here, we quantify overlap in the climatic distributions of 93 pairs of sister species of mammals, birds, amphibians and reptiles restricted to either the New World tropics or to the Northern temperate zone. We show that elevational ranges of tropical- and temperate-zone species do not differ from one another, yet the temperature range experienced by species in the temperate zone is greater than for those in the tropics. Moreover, tropical sister species tend to exhibit greater similarity in their climatic distributions than temperate sister species. This pattern suggests that evolutionary conservatism in the thermal niches of tropical taxa, coupled with the greater thermal zonation of tropical mountains, may result in increased opportunities for allopatric isolation, speciation and the accumulation of species in tropical montane regions. Our study exemplifies the power of combining phylogenetic and spatial datasets of global climatic variation to explore evolutionary (rather than purely ecological) explanations for the high biodiversity of tropical montane regions. PMID:21632626

  14. An Abrupt Centennial-Scale Drought Event and Mid-Holocene Climate Change Patterns in Monsoon Marginal Zones of East Asia

    PubMed Central

    Li, Yu; Wang, Nai'ang; Zhang, Chengqi

    2014-01-01

    The mid-latitudes of East Asia are characterized by the interaction between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds. Understanding long-term climate change in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon is critical for understanding the millennial-scale interactions between the Asian monsoon and the westerly winds. Abrupt climate events are always associated with changes in large-scale circulation patterns; therefore, investigations into abrupt climate changes provide clues for responses of circulation patterns to extreme climate events. In this paper, we examined the time scale and mid-Holocene climatic background of an abrupt dry mid-Holocene event in the Shiyang River drainage basin in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. Mid-Holocene lacustrine records were collected from the middle reaches and the terminal lake of the basin. Using radiocarbon and OSL ages, a centennial-scale drought event, which is characterized by a sand layer in lacustrine sediments both from the middle and lower reaches of the basin, was absolutely dated between 8.0–7.0 cal kyr BP. Grain size data suggest an abrupt decline in lake level and a dry environment in the middle reaches of the basin during the dry interval. Previous studies have shown mid-Holocene drought events in other places of monsoon marginal zones; however, their chronologies are not strong enough to study the mechanism. According to the absolutely dated records, we proposed a new hypothesis that the mid-Holocene dry interval can be related to the weakening Asian summer monsoon and the relatively arid environment in arid Central Asia. Furthermore, abrupt dry climatic events are directly linked to the basin-wide effective moisture change in semi-arid and arid regions. Effective moisture is affected by basin-wide precipitation, evapotranspiration, lake surface evaporation and other geographical settings. As a result, the time scales of the dry interval could vary according to locations due to different

  15. An abrupt centennial-scale drought event and mid-holocene climate change patterns in monsoon marginal zones of East Asia.

    PubMed

    Li, Yu; Wang, Nai'ang; Zhang, Chengqi

    2014-01-01

    The mid-latitudes of East Asia are characterized by the interaction between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds. Understanding long-term climate change in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon is critical for understanding the millennial-scale interactions between the Asian monsoon and the westerly winds. Abrupt climate events are always associated with changes in large-scale circulation patterns; therefore, investigations into abrupt climate changes provide clues for responses of circulation patterns to extreme climate events. In this paper, we examined the time scale and mid-Holocene climatic background of an abrupt dry mid-Holocene event in the Shiyang River drainage basin in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. Mid-Holocene lacustrine records were collected from the middle reaches and the terminal lake of the basin. Using radiocarbon and OSL ages, a centennial-scale drought event, which is characterized by a sand layer in lacustrine sediments both from the middle and lower reaches of the basin, was absolutely dated between 8.0-7.0 cal kyr BP. Grain size data suggest an abrupt decline in lake level and a dry environment in the middle reaches of the basin during the dry interval. Previous studies have shown mid-Holocene drought events in other places of monsoon marginal zones; however, their chronologies are not strong enough to study the mechanism. According to the absolutely dated records, we proposed a new hypothesis that the mid-Holocene dry interval can be related to the weakening Asian summer monsoon and the relatively arid environment in arid Central Asia. Furthermore, abrupt dry climatic events are directly linked to the basin-wide effective moisture change in semi-arid and arid regions. Effective moisture is affected by basin-wide precipitation, evapotranspiration, lake surface evaporation and other geographical settings. As a result, the time scales of the dry interval could vary according to locations due to different geographical

  16. 26 CFR 1.1397E-1 - Qualified zone academy bonds.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES (CONTINUED) Empowerment Zone Employment Credit § 1.1397E-1 Qualified zone... empowerment zone or enterprise community (as defined in section 1393), or there is a reasonable expectation... located in an empowerment zone or enterprise community for the entire term of the issue if the public...

  17. Formulating a coastal zone health metric for landuse impact management in urban coastal zones.

    PubMed

    Anilkumar, P P; Varghese, Koshy; Ganesh, L S

    2010-11-01

    The need for ICZM arises often due to inadequate or inappropriate landuse planning practices and policies, especially in urban coastal zones which are more complex due to the larger number of components, their critical dimensions, attributes and interactions. A survey of literature shows that there is no holistic metric for assessing the impacts of landuse planning on the health of a coastal zone. Thus there is a need to define such a metric. The proposed metric, CHI (Coastal zone Health Indicator), developed on the basis of coastal system sustainability, attempts to gauge the health status of any coastal zone. It is formulated and modeled through an expert survey and pertains to the characteristic components of coastal zones, their critical dimensions, and relevant attributes. The proposed metric is applied to two urban coastal zones and validated. It can be used for more coast friendly and sustainable landuse planning/masterplan preparation and thereby for the better management of landuse impacts on coastal zones. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Slip Zone versus Damage Zone Micromechanics, Arima-Takasuki Tectonic Line, Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, J. C.; Lin, A.

    2017-12-01

    The Arima-Takasuki Tectonic Line (ATTL) of southern Honshu, Japan is defined by historically active faults and multiple splays producing M7 earthquakes. The damage zone of the ATTL comprises a broad zone of crushed, comminuted and pulverized granite/rhyolite1,2containing cm-scale slip zones and highly comminuted injection veins. In this presentation, prior work on the ATTL fault rocks is extending to include microstructural characterization by transmission electron microscopy (TEM) from recent trenching of the primary slip zone, as well as secondary slip zones. This is necessary to adequately characterize the extremely fine-grained material (typically less than 1mm) in both damage and core zones. Damage zone material exhibits generally random textures3 whereas slip zones are macroscopically foliated, and compositionally layered, notwithstanding a fairly homogeneous protolith. The latter reflects fluid-rock interaction during both coseismic and interseismic periods. The slip zones are microstructurally heterogeneous at all scales, comprising not only cataclasites and phyllosilicate (clay)-rich gouge zones, but Fe/Mn pellets or clasts that are contained within gouge. These structures appear to have rolled and would suggest rapid recrystallization and/or growth. A central question related to earthquake recurrence along existing faults is the nature of the gouge. In both near-surface exposures and ongoing drilling at depth, "plastic" or "viscous" gouge zones comprise ultra-fine-grained clay-siliciclastic particles that would not necessarily respond in a simple frictional manner. Depending on whether the plastic nature of these slip zones develops during or after slip, subsequent focusing of slip within them could be complicated. 1 Mitchell, T.A., Ben-Zion, Y., Shimamoto, T., 2011. Ear. Planet. Sci. Lett. 308, 284-297. 2 Lin, A., Yamashita, K, Tanaka, M. J., 2013. Struc. Geol. 48, 3-13. 3 White, J.C., Lin, A. 2016. Proc. AGU Fall Mtg., T42-02 San Francisco.

  19. Enabling the use of climate model data in the Dutch climate effect community

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Som de Cerff, Wim; Plieger, Maarten

    2010-05-01

    Within the climate effect community the usage of climate model data is emerging. Where mostly climate time series and weather generators were used, there is a shift to incorporate climate model data into climate effect models. The use of climate model data within the climate effect models is difficult, due to missing metadata, resolution and projection issues, data formats and availability of the parameters of interest. Often the climate effect modelers are not aware of available climate model data or are not aware of how they can use it. Together with seven other partners (CERFACS, CNR-IPSL, SMHI, INHGA, CMCC, WUR, MF-CNRM), KNMI is involved in the FP7 IS ENES (http://www.enes.org) project work package 10/JRA5 ‘Bridging Climate Research Data and the Needs of the Impact Community. The aims of this work package are to enhance the use of Climate Research Data and to enhance the interaction with climate effect/impact communities. Phase one is to define use cases together with the Dutch climate effect community, which describe the intended use of climate model data in climate effect models. We defined four use cases: 1) FEWS hydrological Framework (Deltares) 2) METAPHOR, a plants and species dispersion model (Wageningen University) 3) Natuurplanner, an Ecological model suite (Wageningen University) 4) Land use models (Free University/JRC). Also the other partners in JRA5 have defined use cases, which are representative for the climate effect and impact communities in their country. Goal is to find commonalities between all defined use cases. The common functionality will be implemented as e-tools and incorporated in the IS-ENES data portal. Common issues relate to e.g., need for high resolution: downscaling from GCM to local scale (also involves interpolation); parameter selection; finding extremes; averaging methods. At the conference we will describe the FEWS case in more detail: Delft FEWS is an open shell system (in development since 1995) for performing

  20. Fostering Collaboration Across the U.S. Critical Zone Observatories Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharkey, S.; White, T. S.

    2017-12-01

    The Critical Zone (CZ) is defined as the permeable layer from the top of the vegetation canopy to the bottom of freely circulating groundwater where rock, soil, water, air and life meet. The study of the CZ is motivated by an overall lack of understanding of the coupled physical, chemical, and biological processes in this zone at differing spatial and temporal scales. Critical Zone Observatories (CZOs), supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation's Geosciences Directorate, are natural laboratories that aim to provide infrastructure, data and models to gain understanding of the evolution and function of the CZ from grain-to-watershed scales. The nine U.S. observatories span a range of climatic, ecologic, geologic, and physiographic environments from California to Puerto Rico, working on site-specific hypotheses and network-scale goals. CZO research infrastructure allows for teams of cross-disciplinary scientists at each site to further CZ science using field and theoretical approaches, education and outreach, and cross-CZO science. Cross-CZO science emerges from a set of common CZ science questions and hypotheses focused on CZ structure and evolution, event-based and continuous fluxes across CZ interfaces, and changes in storage of major CZ reservoirs at the catchment scale. CZO research seeks to understand coupled processes across all timescales using quantitative models parameterized from observations of meteorological variables, streams, and groundwater, and sampling and analyzing landforms, bedrock, soils, and ecosystems. Each observatory strives to apply common infrastructure, protocols and measurements that help quantify the composition and fluxes of energy, water, solutes, sediments, energy, and mass across boundaries of the CZ system through both space and time. This type of approach enables researchers to access and integrate data in a way that allows for the isolation of environmental variables and comparison of processes and responses across

  1. Climate Change and Flooding in an Ecologically Fragile Zone of Nigerian Coastal Areas: A Case Study of Ilaje Settlement in Lagos, Nigeria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oni, A. F.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change exacerbates the environmental condition directly or indirectly. The frequency of climate-related disasters worldwide has been on the increase with their amplitude growing. The consequences of climate-related disaster are not limited to loss of lives and properties alone, but also serious repercussions on post-disaster reconstruction, as well as the cost implications for resilience of the infrastructure and natural environment. In developing countries, the low-income group whose income is below the world poverty line is the most vulnerable to the dangers of climate change. To worsen the case, the political and economic strength of these countries in terms of economic resources, technological development and urban planning management necessary for adapting to climate change are relatively weak. This study takes an inventory of the study area environment to establish its environmental state in terms of the extent of its vulnerability and economic strength. It was found that the study area is vulnerable being a coastal area and could be described as a slum settlement. Also, information on frequency and extent of flooding in association with change in temperature was collected. The results show that the frequency of flood occurrence within the period has increased and the increase was attributed to rise in sea level alongside a significant increase in temperature within the period of study. The implications of the findings on loss of lives/properties and continuous decline in the area economic strength as it relates to resilience of the area was discussed. The study suggests an effective urban land use management and control, as well as redevelopment of resilient infrastructure in the area. The study concludes that the increase in temperature for the period as an indicator of climate change causes rise in sea level and the subsequent increase in flooding occurrence. Key Words: Ecologically Fragile Zone, Climate Change, Flooding and Vulnerability.

  2. Climatically driven yield variability of major crops in Khakassia (South Siberia)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babushkina, Elena A.; Belokopytova, Liliana V.; Zhirnova, Dina F.; Shah, Santosh K.; Kostyakova, Tatiana V.

    2018-06-01

    We investigated the variability of yield of the three main crop cultures in the Khakassia Republic: spring wheat, spring barley, and oats. In terms of yield values, variability characteristics, and climatic response, the agricultural territory of Khakassia can be divided into three zones: (1) the Northern Zone, where crops yield has a high positive response to the amount of precipitation, May-July, and a moderately negative one to the temperatures of the same period; (2) the Central Zone, where crops yield depends mainly on temperatures; and (3) the Southern Zone, where climate has the least expressed impact on yield. The dominant pattern in the crops yield is caused by water stress during periods of high temperatures and low moisture supply with heat stress as additional reason. Differences between zones are due to combinations of temperature latitudinal gradient, precipitation altitudinal gradient, and the presence of a well-developed hydrological network and the irrigational system as moisture sources in the Central Zone. More detailed analysis shows differences in the climatic sensitivity of crops during phases of their vegetative growth and grain development and, to a lesser extent, during harvesting period. Multifactor linear regression models were constructed to estimate climate- and autocorrelation-induced variability of the crops yield. These models allowed prediction of the possibility of yield decreasing by at least 2-11% in the next decade due to increasing of the regional summer temperatures.

  3. Climatically driven yield variability of major crops in Khakassia (South Siberia)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babushkina, Elena A.; Belokopytova, Liliana V.; Zhirnova, Dina F.; Shah, Santosh K.; Kostyakova, Tatiana V.

    2017-12-01

    We investigated the variability of yield of the three main crop cultures in the Khakassia Republic: spring wheat, spring barley, and oats. In terms of yield values, variability characteristics, and climatic response, the agricultural territory of Khakassia can be divided into three zones: (1) the Northern Zone, where crops yield has a high positive response to the amount of precipitation, May-July, and a moderately negative one to the temperatures of the same period; (2) the Central Zone, where crops yield depends mainly on temperatures; and (3) the Southern Zone, where climate has the least expressed impact on yield. The dominant pattern in the crops yield is caused by water stress during periods of high temperatures and low moisture supply with heat stress as additional reason. Differences between zones are due to combinations of temperature latitudinal gradient, precipitation altitudinal gradient, and the presence of a well-developed hydrological network and the irrigational system as moisture sources in the Central Zone. More detailed analysis shows differences in the climatic sensitivity of crops during phases of their vegetative growth and grain development and, to a lesser extent, during harvesting period. Multifactor linear regression models were constructed to estimate climate- and autocorrelation-induced variability of the crops yield. These models allowed prediction of the possibility of yield decreasing by at least 2-11% in the next decade due to increasing of the regional summer temperatures.

  4. Analytical Investigation of the Decrease in the Size of the Habitable Zone due to Limited CO2 Outgassing Rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abbot, D. S.

    2016-12-01

    The habitable zone concept is important because it focuses the scientific search for extraterrestrial life and aids the planning of future telescopes. Recent work has shown that planets near the outer edge of the habitable zone might not actually be able to stay warm and habitable if CO2 outgassing rates are not large enough to maintain high CO2 partial pressures against removal by silicate weathering. I use simple equations for the climate and CO2 budget of a planet in the habitable zone that can capture the qualitative behavior of the system. With these equations I derive an analytical formula for an effective outer edge of the habitable zone, including limitations imposed by the CO2 outgassing rate. I then show that climate cycles between a Snowball state and a warm climate are only possible beyond this limit if the weathering rate in the Snowball climate is smaller than the CO2 outgassing rate (otherwise stable Snowball states result). I derive an analytical solution for the climate cycles including a formula for their period in this limit. This work allows us to explore the qualitative effects of weathering processes on the effective outer edge of the habitable zone, which is important because weathering parameterizations are uncertain.

  5. How Much Curriculum Change Is Appropriate? Defining a Zone of Feasible Innovation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rogan, John M.

    2007-01-01

    The article grapples with the question of how much curriculum change is appropriate in a given context and in a given time frame. How can a balance be struck between stagnation, on the one hand, and the promotion of unrealistic innovation on the other? In answer to this dilemma, the concept of a zone of feasible innovation (ZFI) is proposed and…

  6. Distributions of Fecal Markers in Wastewater from Different Climatic Zones for Human Fecal Pollution Tracking in Australian Surface Waters

    PubMed Central

    Sidhu, J. P. S.; Smith, K.; Beale, D. J.; Gyawali, P.; Toze, S.

    2015-01-01

    Recreational and potable water supplies polluted with human wastewater can pose a direct health risk to humans. Therefore, sensitive detection of human fecal pollution in environmental waters is very important to water quality authorities around the globe. Microbial source tracking (MST) utilizes human fecal markers (HFMs) to detect human wastewater pollution in environmental waters. The concentrations of these markers in raw wastewater are considered important because it is likely that a marker whose concentration is high in wastewater will be more frequently detected in polluted waters. In this study, quantitative PCR (qPCR) assays were used to determine the concentrations of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) Escherichia coli and Enterococcus spp., HFMs Bacteroides HF183, human adenoviruses (HAdVs), and polyomaviruses (HPyVs) in raw municipal wastewater influent from various climatic zones in Australia. E. coli mean concentrations in pooled human wastewater data sets (from various climatic zones) were the highest (3.2 × 106 gene copies per ml), followed by those of HF183 (8.0 × 105 gene copies per ml) and Enterococcus spp. (3.6 × 105 gene copies per ml). HAdV and HPyV concentrations were 2 to 3 orders of magnitude lower than those of FIB and HF183. Strong positive and negative correlations were observed between the FIB and HFM concentrations within and across wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). To identify the most sensitive marker of human fecal pollution, environmental water samples were seeded with raw human wastewater. The results from the seeding experiments indicated that Bacteroides HF183 was more sensitive for detecting human fecal pollution than HAdVs and HPyVs. Since the HF183 marker can occasionally be present in nontarget animal fecal samples, it is recommended that HF183 along with a viral marker (HAdVs or HPyVs) be used for tracking human fecal pollution in Australian environmental waters. PMID:26682850

  7. Climate change, agroclimatic resources and agroclimatic zoning of agriculture in Bulgaria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kazandjiev, V.; Moteva, M.; Georgieva, V.

    2009-09-01

    The important factors for the agrarian output in Bulgaria are only thermal and water probability. From the two factors the component related to soil moisture is more limited. As well water and temperatures probabilities in the agrarian output are estimated trough sums of temperatures and rainfalls or by derivatives indicators (most frequently named as coefficients or indices). The heat conditions and the heat resources are specified by the continuousness of the vegetative period. Duration of vegetative season is limited for each type of plant, between the spring and autumn steady pass of air temperature across the biological minimum. For the agricultural crops in Bulgaria the three biological minimums: in 5°C are taken for wheat and barley, oat, pea, lentil and sunflower; 10°C for corn, haricot, and soybean and in 15°C for the cotton, vegetables and other spring cultures). The cold and warm period duration are mutually related characteristics. The first period define number of days with the snow fall and days with the snow cover, that are in the basis in the formation of soil moisture reserves after the spring snow melt. Definition of the regions with temperature stress conditions during vegetative season is one of the most important parameters of agroclimatic conditions. The values indicating for the limitations are one or more periods from at least 10 consecutive days with maximal air temperature over 35 °С. More from the agricultures, character for the moderate continental climatic zone are developed normally under temperatures 25-28°С. Temperatures over 28°C are ballast slowing the growth and destroying plants due to the heat tension. The component, limiting in greatest degree growth, development and formation of yields from the agricultural crops are the conditions of moisturizing, present trough atmospheric and soil moisture. The most apparent indicator is the year sum of the rains or their sum by the periods with the average daily temperatures of

  8. Revisions of the Fish Invasiveness Screening Kit (FISK) for its application in warmer climatic zones, with particular reference to peninsular Florida.

    PubMed

    Lawson, Larry L; Hill, Jeffrey E; Vilizzi, Lorenzo; Hardin, Scott; Copp, Gordon H

    2013-08-01

    The initial version (v1) of the Fish Invasiveness Scoring Kit (FISK) was adapted from the Weed Risk Assessment of Pheloung, Williams, and Halloy to assess the potential invasiveness of nonnative freshwater fishes in the United Kingdom. Published applications of FISK v1 have been primarily in temperate-zone countries (Belgium, Belarus, and Japan), so the specificity of this screening tool to that climatic zone was not noted until attempts were made to apply it in peninsular Florida. To remedy this shortcoming, the questions and guidance notes of FISK v1 were reviewed and revised to improve clarity and extend its applicability to broader climatic regions, resulting in changes to 36 of the 49 questions. In addition, upgrades were made to the software architecture of FISK to improve overall computational speed as well as graphical user interface flexibility and friendliness. We demonstrate the process of screening a fish species using FISK v2 in a realistic management scenario by assessing the Barcoo grunter Scortum barcoo (Terapontidae), a species whose management concerns are related to its potential use for aquaponics in Florida. The FISK v2 screening of Barcoo grunter placed the species into the lower range of medium risk (score = 5), suggesting it is a permissible species for use in Florida under current nonnative species regulations. Screening of the Barcoo grunter illustrates the usefulness of FISK v2 as a proactive tool serving to inform risk management decisions, but the low level of confidence associated with the assessment highlighted a dearth of critical information on this species. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Climatic Drivers for Multi-Decadal Shifts in Solute Transport and Methane Production Zones within a Large Peat Basin

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Glaser, Paul H.; Siegel, Donald I.; Chanton, Jeffrey P.; Reeve, Andrew S.; Rosenberry, Donald O.; Corbett, J. Elizabeth; Dasgupta, Soumitri; Levy, Zeno

    2016-01-01

    Northern peatlands are an important source for greenhouse gases but their capacity to produce methane remains uncertain under changing climatic conditions. We therefore analyzed a 43-year time series of pore-water chemistry to determine if long-term shifts in precipitation altered the vertical transport of solutes within a large peat basin in northern Minnesota. These data suggest that rates of methane production can be finely tuned to multi-decadal shifts in precipitation that drive the vertical penetration of labile carbon substrates within the Glacial Lake Agassiz Peatlands. Tritium and cation profiles demonstrate that only the upper meter of these peat deposits was flushed by downwardly moving recharge from 1965 through 1983 during a Transitional Dry-to-Moist Period. However, a shift to a moister climate after 1984 drove surface waters much deeper, largely flushing the pore waters of all bogs and fens to depths of 2 m. Labile carbon compounds were transported downward from the rhizosphere to the basal peat at this time producing a substantial enrichment of methane in Delta C-14 with respect to the solid-phase peat from 1991 to 2008. These data indicate that labile carbon substrates can fuel deep production zones of methanogenesis that more than doubled in thickness across this large peat basin after 1984. Moreover, the entire peat profile apparently has the capacity to produce methane from labile carbon substrates depending on climate-driven modes of solute transport. Future changes in precipitation may therefore play a central role in determining the source strength of peatlands in the global methane cycle.

  10. Alterations in flowering strategies and sexual allocation of Caragana stenophylla along a climatic aridity gradient.

    PubMed

    Xie, Lina; Guo, Hongyu; Ma, Chengcang

    2016-09-15

    Plant can alter reproductive strategies for adaptation to different environments. However, alterations in flowering strategies and sexual allocation for the same species growing in different environments still remain unclear. We examined the sexual reproduction parameters of Caragana stenophylla across four climatic zones from semi-arid, arid, very arid, to intensively arid zones in the Inner Mongolia Steppe, China. Under the relatively favorable climatic conditions of semi-arid zone, C. stenophylla took a K-strategy for flowering (fewer but bigger flowers, and higher seed set). In contrast, under the harsher climatic conditions of intensively arid zone, C. stenophylla took an r-strategy for flowering (more but smaller flowers, and lower seed set). In arid and very arid zones, C. stenophylla exhibited intermediate flowering strategies between K- and r-strategies. In semi-arid, arid and very arid zones, sexual allocation and sexual allocation efficiency (SAE) of C. stenophylla were high, and the population recruitment might be mainly through sexual reproduction; in intensively arid zone, however, sexual allocation and SAE were very low, seed production was very limited, and clonal reproduction might compensate for the decrease in sexual reproduction. Our results suggested that C. stenophylla adapted to the climatic aridity gradient by alterations in flowering strategies and reproductive allocation.

  11. 49 CFR 71.1 - Limits defined; exceptions authorized for certain rail operating purposes only.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... Transportation STANDARD TIME ZONE BOUNDARIES § 71.1 Limits defined; exceptions authorized for certain rail... zones established by section 1 of the Standard Time Act, as amended by section 4 of the Uniform Time Act... carriers, whose operations cross the time zone boundaries prescribed by this part, authorizing them to...

  12. How resilient are ecosystems in adapting to climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Savenije, Hubert H. G.

    2015-04-01

    The conclusion often drawn in the media is that ecosystems may perish as a result of climate change. Although climatic trends may indeed lead to shifts in ecosystem composition, the challenge to adjust to climatic variability - even if there is no trend - is larger, particularly in semi-arid or topical climates where climatic variability is large compared to temperate climates. How do ecosystems buffer for climatic variability? The most powerful mechanism is to invest in root zone storage capacity, so as to guarantee access to water and nutrients during period of drought. This investment comes at a cost of having less energy available to invest in growth or formation of fruits. Ecosystems are expected to create sufficient buffer to overcome critical periods of drought, but not more than is necessary to survive or reproduce. Based on this concept, a methodology has been developed to estimate ecosystem root zone storage capacity at local, regional and global scale. These estimates correspond well with estimates made by combining soil and ecosystem information, but are more accurate and more detailed. The methodology shows that ecosystems have intrinsic capacity to adjust to climatic variability and hence have a high resilience to both climatic variability and climatic trends.

  13. Life zone investigations in Wyoming

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cary, Merritt

    1917-01-01

    Wyoming is among the foremost of our States in its wealth of natural scenery, culminating in the grandeur of Yellowstone National Park, one of the wonders of the world. In addition to this distinction it posseses vast open plains and lofty mountains whence flow the headwaters of mighty river systems emptying far away to the west into the Pacific Ocean, to the southeast into the Gulf of Mexico, and to the southwest into the Gulf of California. The various slope exposures of its mountain ranges, the fertility of its intervening valleys or basins, and the aridity of its desert spaces present a study of geographic and vertical distribution of wild life that is in many particulars unique.The study of geographic and vertical distribution of life with the governing factors and attendant problems is valuable as a matter of scientific research and in the attainment of practical knowledge. The Biological Survey has been making detailed investigations of the transcontinental life belts, or zones, of North America for some years, and this work has been carried on with special reference to their practical value. It has become increasingly evident that life zones furnish a fairly accurate index to average climatic conditions and, therefore, are useful as marking the limits of agricultural possibilities, so far as these are dependent upon climate. The knowledge thus gained has been published and made available as the investigations have progressed and the life zones have been mapped.1

  14. Analytical Investigation of the Decrease in the Size of the Habitable Zone Due to a Limited CO2 Outgassing Rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abbot, Dorian S.

    2016-08-01

    The habitable zone concept is important because it focuses the scientific search for extraterrestrial life and aids the planning of future telescopes. Recent work has shown that planets near the outer edge of the habitable zone might not actually be able to stay warm and habitable if CO2 outgassing rates are not large enough to maintain high CO2 partial pressures against removal by silicate weathering. In this paper, I use simple equations for the climate and CO2 budget of a planet in the habitable zone that can capture the qualitative behavior of the system. With these equations I derive an analytical formula for an effective outer edge of the habitable zone, including limitations imposed by the CO2 outgassing rate. I then show that climate cycles between a snowball state and a warm climate are only possible beyond this limit if the weathering rate in the snowball climate is smaller than the CO2 outgassing rate (otherwise stable snowball states result). I derive an analytical solution for the climate cycles including a formula for their period in this limit. This work allows us to explore the qualitative effects of weathering processes on the effective outer edge of the habitable zone, which is important because weathering parameterizations are uncertain.

  15. The Effect of Carbon Dioxide (CO 2) Ice Cloud Condensation on the Habitable Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lincowski, Andrew; Meadows, Victoria; Robinson, Tyler D.; Crisp, David

    2016-10-01

    The currently accepted outer limit of the habitable zone (OHZ) is defined by the "maximum greenhouse" limit, where Rayleigh scattering from additional CO2 gas overwhelms greenhouse warming. However, this long-standing definition neglects the radiative effects of CO2 clouds (Kopparapu, 2013); this omission was justified based on studies using the two-stream approximation, which found CO2 clouds to be highly likely to produce a net warming. However, recent comparisons of the radiative effect of CO2 clouds using both a two-stream and multi-stream radiative transfer model (Kitzmann et al, 2013; Kitzmann, 2016) found that the warming effect was reduced when the more sophisticated multi-stream models were used. In many cases CO2 clouds caused a cooling effect, meaning that their impact on climate could not be neglected when calculating the outer edge of the habitable zone. To better understand the impact of CO2 ice clouds on the OHZ, we have integrated CO2 cloud condensation into a versatile 1-D climate model for terrestrial planets (Robinson et al, 2012) that uses the validated multi-stream SMART radiative transfer code (Meadows & Crisp, 1996; Crisp, 1997) with a simple microphysical model. We present preliminary results on the habitable zone with self-consistent CO2 clouds for a range of atmospheric masses, compositions and host star spectra, and the subsequent effect on surface temperature. In particular, we evaluate the habitable zone for TRAPPIST-1d (Gillon et al, 2016) with a variety of atmospheric compositions and masses. We present reflectance and transit spectra of these cold terrestrial planets. We identify any consequences for the OHZ in general and TRAPPIST-1d in particular. This more comprehensive treatment of the OHZ could impact our understanding of the distribution of habitable planets in the universe, and provide better constraints for statistical target selection techniques, such as the habitability index (Barnes et al, 2015), for missions like JWST

  16. Definition of management zones for enhancing cultivated land conservation using combined spatial data.

    PubMed

    Li, Yan; Shi, Zhou; Wu, Hao-Xiang; Li, Feng; Li, Hong-Yi

    2013-10-01

    The loss of cultivated land has increasingly become an issue of regional and national concern in China. Definition of management zones is an important measure to protect limited cultivated land resource. In this study, combined spatial data were applied to define management zones in Fuyang city, China. The yield of cultivated land was first calculated and evaluated and the spatial distribution pattern mapped; the limiting factors affecting the yield were then explored; and their maps of the spatial variability were presented using geostatistics analysis. Data were jointly analyzed for management zone definition using a combination of principal component analysis with a fuzzy clustering method, two cluster validity functions were used to determine the optimal number of cluster. Finally one-way variance analysis was performed on 3,620 soil sampling points to assess how well the defined management zones reflected the soil properties and productivity level. It was shown that there existed great potential for increasing grain production, and the amount of cultivated land played a key role in maintaining security in grain production. Organic matter, total nitrogen, available phosphorus, elevation, thickness of the plow layer, and probability of irrigation guarantee were the main limiting factors affecting the yield. The optimal number of management zones was three, and there existed significantly statistical differences between the crop yield and field parameters in each defined management zone. Management zone I presented the highest potential crop yield, fertility level, and best agricultural production condition, whereas management zone III lowest. The study showed that the procedures used may be effective in automatically defining management zones; by the development of different management zones, different strategies of cultivated land management and practice in each zone could be determined, which is of great importance to enhance cultivated land conservation

  17. Increases in the climate change adaption effectiveness and availability of vegetation across a coastal to desert climate gradient in metropolitan Los Angeles, CA, USA.

    PubMed

    Tayyebi, Amin; Darrel Jenerette, G

    2016-04-01

    Urbanization has increased heat in the urban environment, with many consequences for human health and well-being. Managing climate change in part through increasing vegetation is desired by many cities to mitigate current and future heat related issues. However, little information is available on what influences the current effectiveness and availability of vegetation for local cooling. In this study, we identified the variation in the interacting relationships among vegetation (normalized difference vegetation index), socioeconomic status (neighborhood income), elevation and land surface temperature (LST) to identify how vegetation based surface cooling services change throughout the pronounced coastal to desert climate gradient of the Los Angeles, CA metropolitan region, a megacity of >18 million residents. A key challenge for understanding variation in vegetation as a climate change adaptation tool spanning neighborhood to megacity scales is developing new "big data" analytical tools. We used structural equation modeling (SEM) to quantify the interacting relationships among socio-economic status data obtained from government census data, elevation and new LST and vegetation data obtained from an airborne imaging campaign conducted in 2013 for the urban and suburban areas across a series of fifteen climate zones. Vegetation systematically increased in cooling effectiveness from 6.06 to 31.77 degrees with increasing distance from the coast. Vegetation and neighborhood income were positively correlated throughout all climate zones with a peak in the relationship occurring near 25km from the coast. Because of the interaction between these two relationships, we also found that higher income neighborhoods were cooler and that this effect peaked at about 30km from the coast. These results show the availability and effectiveness of vegetation on the local climate varies tremendously throughout the Los Angeles, CA metropolitan area. Further, using the more inland climate

  18. The Development Evaluation of Economic Zones in China.

    PubMed

    Liu, Wei; Shi, Hong-Bo; Zhang, Zhe; Tsai, Sang-Bing; Zhai, Yuming; Chen, Quan; Wang, Jiangtao

    2018-01-02

    After the Chinese reform and opening up, the construction of economic zones, such as Special Economic Zones, Hi-tech Zones and Bonded Zones, has played an irreplaceable role in China's economic development. Currently, against the background of Chinese economic transition, research on development evaluation of economic zones has become popular and necessary. Similar research usually focuses on one specific field, and the methods that are used to evaluate it are simple. This research aims to analyse the development evaluation of zones by synthesis. A new hybrid multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) model that combines the DEMATEL technique and the DANP method is proposed. After establishing the evaluation criterion system and acquiring data, the influential weights of dimensions and criteria can be calculated, which will be a guide for forming measures of development. Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone is used in the empirical case analysis. The results show that Transportation Conditions, Industrial Structure and Business Climate are the main influencing criteria and measures based on these criteria are proposed.

  19. The Development Evaluation of Economic Zones in China

    PubMed Central

    Shi, Hong-Bo; Zhang, Zhe; Zhai, Yuming; Chen, Quan; Wang, Jiangtao

    2018-01-01

    After the Chinese reform and opening up, the construction of economic zones, such as Special Economic Zones, Hi-tech Zones and Bonded Zones, has played an irreplaceable role in China’s economic development. Currently, against the background of Chinese economic transition, research on development evaluation of economic zones has become popular and necessary. Similar research usually focuses on one specific field, and the methods that are used to evaluate it are simple. This research aims to analyse the development evaluation of zones by synthesis. A new hybrid multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) model that combines the DEMATEL technique and the DANP method is proposed. After establishing the evaluation criterion system and acquiring data, the influential weights of dimensions and criteria can be calculated, which will be a guide for forming measures of development. Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone is used in the empirical case analysis. The results show that Transportation Conditions, Industrial Structure and Business Climate are the main influencing criteria and measures based on these criteria are proposed. PMID:29301304

  20. The Arab Vernacular Architecture and its Adaptation to Mediterranean Climatic Zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paz, Shlomit; Hamza, Efat

    2014-05-01

    Throughout history people have employed building strategies adapted to local climatic conditions in an attempt to achieve thermal comfort in their homes. In the Mediterranean climate, a mixed strategy developed - utilizing positive parameters (e.g. natural lighting), while at the same time addressing negative variables (e.g. high temperatures during summer). This study analyzes the adaptation of construction strategies of traditional Arab houses to Mediterranean climatic conditions. It is based on the assumption that the climate of the eastern Mediterranean led to development of unique architectural patterns. The way in which the inhabitants chose to build their homes was modest but creative in the context of climate awareness, with simple ideas. These were often instinctive responses to climate challenges. Nine traditional Arab houses, built from the mid-19th century to the beginning of the 20th century, were analyzed in three different regions in Israel: the "Meshulash" - an area in the center of the country, and the Lower and Upper Galilees (in the north). In each region three houses were examined. It is important to note that only a few houses from these periods still remain, particularly in light of new construction in many of the villages' core areas. Qualitative research methodologies included documentation of all the elements of these traditional houses which were assumed to be a result of climatic factors, such as - house position (direction), thickness of walls, thermal mass, ceiling height, location of windows, natural ventilation, exterior wall colors and shading strategies. Additionally, air temperatures and relative humidity were measured at selected dates throughout all seasons both inside and immediately outside the houses during morning, noon, evening and night-time hours. The documentation of the architectural elements and strategies demonstrate that climatic considerations were an integral part of the planning and construction process of these

  1. Effect of climatic variability on malaria trends in Baringo County, Kenya.

    PubMed

    Kipruto, Edwin K; Ochieng, Alfred O; Anyona, Douglas N; Mbalanya, Macrae; Mutua, Edna N; Onguru, Daniel; Nyamongo, Isaac K; Estambale, Benson B A

    2017-05-25

    Malaria transmission in arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya such as Baringo County, is seasonal and often influenced by climatic factors. Unravelling the relationship between climate variables and malaria transmission dynamics is therefore instrumental in developing effective malaria control strategies. The main aim of this study was to describe the effects of variability of rainfall, maximum temperature and vegetation indices on seasonal trends of malaria in selected health facilities within Baringo County, Kenya. Climate variables sourced from the International Research Institute (IRI)/Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) climate database and malaria cases reported in 10 health facilities spread across four ecological zones (riverine, lowland, mid-altitude and highland) between 2004 and 2014 were subjected to a time series analysis. A negative binomial regression model with lagged climate variables was used to model long-term monthly malaria cases. The seasonal Mann-Kendall trend test was then used to detect overall monotonic trends in malaria cases. Malaria cases increased significantly in the highland and midland zones over the study period. Changes in malaria prevalence corresponded to variations in rainfall and maximum temperature. Rainfall at a time lag of 2 months resulted in an increase in malaria transmission across the four zones while an increase in temperature at time lags of 0 and 1 month resulted in an increase in malaria cases in the riverine and highland zones, respectively. Given the existence of a time lag between climatic variables more so rainfall and peak malaria transmission, appropriate control measures can be initiated at the onset of short and after long rains seasons.

  2. Quantifying the Hydrologic Effect of Climate Variability in the Lower Colorado Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Switanek, M.; Troch, P. A.

    2007-12-01

    Regional climate patterns are driven in large part by ocean states and associated atmospheric circulations, but modified through feedbacks from land surface conditions. The latter defines the climate elasticity of a river basin. Many regions that lie between semi-arid and semi-humid zones with seasonal rainfall, for instance, experience prolonged periods of wet and dry spells. Understanding the triggers that bring a river basin from one state (e.g. wet period of late 90s in the Colorado basin) abruptly to another state (multi-year drought initiated in 2001 to present) is what motivates the present study. Our research methodology investigates the causes of regional climate variability and its effect on hydrologic response. By correlating, using different monthly time lags, sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea level pressures (SLP) with basin averaged precipitation and surface temperature, we determine the most influential regions of the Pacific Ocean on lower Colorado climate variability. Using the most correlated data for each month, we derive precipitation and temperature distributions under similar conditions to that of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We compare the distributions of the climatic data, given ENSO constraints on SST and SLP, to the distributions considering non-ENSO years. Finally, we use observed stream flows and climatic data to determine the basin's climate elasticity. This allows us to quantitatively translate the predicted regional climate effects of ENSO on hydrologic response. Our presentation will use data for the Little Colorado as an example to demonstrate the procedure and produce preliminary results.

  3. The effects of ambient temperature on cerebrovascular mortality: an epidemiologic study in four climatic zones in China

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Little evidence is available about the association between temperature and cerebrovascular mortality in China. This study aims to examine the effects of ambient temperature on cerebrovascular mortality in different climatic zones in China. Method We obtained daily data on weather conditions, air pollution and cerebrovascular deaths from five cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan, and Guangzhou) in China during 2004-2008. We examined city-specific associations between ambient temperature and the cerebrovascular mortality, while adjusting for season, long-term trends, day of the week, relative humidity and air pollution. We examined cold effects using a 1°C decrease in temperature below a city-specific threshold, and hot effects using a 1°C increase in temperature above a city-specific threshold. We used a meta-analysis to summarize the cold and hot effects across the five cities. Results Beijing and Tianjin (with low mean temperature) had lower thresholds than Shanghai, Wuhan and Guangzhou (with high mean temperature). In Beijing, Tianjin, Wuhan and Guangzhou cold effects were delayed, while in Shanghai there was no or short induction. Hot effects were acute in all five cities. The cold effects lasted longer than hot effects. The hot effects were followed by mortality displacement. The pooled relative risk associated with a 1°C decrease in temperature below thresholds (cold effect) was 1.037 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.020, 1.053). The pooled relative risk associated with a 1°C increase in temperature above thresholds (hot effect) was 1.014 (95% CI: 0.979, 1.050). Conclusion Cold temperatures are significantly associated with cerebrovascular mortality in China, while hot effect is not significant. People in colder climate cities were sensitive to hot temperatures, while people in warmer climate cities were vulnerable to cold temperature. PMID:24690204

  4. Width of the Surface Rupture Zone for Thrust Earthquakes and Implications for Earthquake Fault Zoning: Chi-Chi 1999 and Wenchuan 2008 Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boncio, P.; Caldarella, M.

    2016-12-01

    We analyze the zones of coseismic surface faulting along thrust faults, whit the aim of defining the most appropriate criteria for zoning the Surface Fault Rupture Hazard (SFRH) along thrust faults. Normal and strike-slip faults were deeply studied in the past, while thrust faults were not studied with comparable attention. We analyze the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan (Mw 7.6) and 2008 Wenchuan, China (Mw 7.9) earthquakes. Several different types of coseismic fault scarps characterize the two earthquakes, depending on the topography, fault geometry and near-surface materials. For both the earthquakes, we collected from the literature, or measured in GIS-georeferenced published maps, data about the Width of the coseismic Rupture Zone (WRZ). The frequency distribution of WRZ compared to the trace of the main fault shows that the surface ruptures occur mainly on and near the main fault. Ruptures located away from the main fault occur mainly in the hanging wall. Where structural complexities are present (e.g., sharp bends, step-overs), WRZ is wider then for simple fault traces. We also fitted the distribution of the WRZ dataset with probability density functions, in order to define a criterion to remove outliers (e.g., by selecting 90% or 95% probability) and define the zone where the probability of SFRH is the highest. This might help in sizing the zones of SFRH during seismic microzonation (SM) mapping. In order to shape zones of SFRH, a very detailed earthquake geologic study of the fault is necessary. In the absence of such a very detailed study, during basic (First level) SM mapping, a width of 350-400 m seems to be recommended (95% of probability). If the fault is carefully mapped (higher level SM), one must consider that the highest SFRH is concentrated in a narrow zone, 50 m-wide, that should be considered as a "fault-avoidance (or setback) zone". These fault zones should be asymmetric. The ratio of footwall to hanging wall (FW:HW) calculated here ranges from 1:5 to 1:3.

  5. 26 CFR 1.1397E-1 - Qualified zone academy bonds.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES (CONTINUED) Empowerment Zone Employment Credit § 1.1397E-1 Qualified zone... section 1397E(d)(2)(B)(i), (ii), (iii), (iv) or (v). Services of employees of the eligible local education... empowerment zone or enterprise community (as defined in section 1393), or there is a reasonable expectation...

  6. 26 CFR 1.1397E-1 - Qualified zone academy bonds.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES (CONTINUED) Empowerment Zone Employment Credit § 1.1397E-1 Qualified zone... section 1397E(d)(2)(B)(i), (ii), (iii), (iv) or (v). Services of employees of the eligible local education... empowerment zone or enterprise community (as defined in section 1393), or there is a reasonable expectation...

  7. 26 CFR 1.1397E-1 - Qualified zone academy bonds.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES (CONTINUED) Empowerment Zone Employment Credit § 1.1397E-1 Qualified zone... section 1397E(d)(2)(B)(i), (ii), (iii), (iv) or (v). Services of employees of the eligible local education... empowerment zone or enterprise community (as defined in section 1393), or there is a reasonable expectation...

  8. Soil moisture dynamics modeling considering multi-layer root zone.

    PubMed

    Kumar, R; Shankar, V; Jat, M K

    2013-01-01

    The moisture uptake by plant from soil is a key process for plant growth and movement of water in the soil-plant system. A non-linear root water uptake (RWU) model was developed for a multi-layer crop root zone. The model comprised two parts: (1) model formulation and (2) moisture flow prediction. The developed model was tested for its efficiency in predicting moisture depletion in a non-uniform root zone. A field experiment on wheat (Triticum aestivum) was conducted in the sub-temperate sub-humid agro-climate of Solan, Himachal Pradesh, India. Model-predicted soil moisture parameters, i.e., moisture status at various depths, moisture depletion and soil moisture profile in the root zone, are in good agreement with experiment results. The results of simulation emphasize the utility of the RWU model across different agro-climatic regions. The model can be used for sound irrigation management especially in water-scarce humid, temperate, arid and semi-arid regions and can also be integrated with a water transport equation to predict the solute uptake by plant biomass.

  9. Response of ocean ecosystems to climate warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarmiento, J. L.; Slater, R.; Barber, R.; Bopp, L.; Doney, S. C.; Hirst, A. C.; Kleypas, J.; Matear, R.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Monfray, P.; Soldatov, V.; Spall, S. A.; Stouffer, R.

    2004-09-01

    We examine six different coupled climate model simulations to determine the ocean biological response to climate warming between the beginning of the industrial revolution and 2050. We use vertical velocity, maximum winter mixed layer depth, and sea ice cover to define six biomes. Climate warming leads to a contraction of the highly productive marginal sea ice biome by 42% in the Northern Hemisphere and 17% in the Southern Hemisphere, and leads to an expansion of the low productivity permanently stratified subtropical gyre biome by 4.0% in the Northern Hemisphere and 9.4% in the Southern Hemisphere. In between these, the subpolar gyre biome expands by 16% in the Northern Hemisphere and 7% in the Southern Hemisphere, and the seasonally stratified subtropical gyre contracts by 11% in both hemispheres. The low-latitude (mostly coastal) upwelling biome area changes only modestly. Vertical stratification increases, which would be expected to decrease nutrient supply everywhere, but increase the growing season length in high latitudes. We use satellite ocean color and climatological observations to develop an empirical model for predicting chlorophyll from the physical properties of the global warming simulations. Four features stand out in the response to global warming: (1) a drop in chlorophyll in the North Pacific due primarily to retreat of the marginal sea ice biome, (2) a tendency toward an increase in chlorophyll in the North Atlantic due to a complex combination of factors, (3) an increase in chlorophyll in the Southern Ocean due primarily to the retreat of and changes at the northern boundary of the marginal sea ice zone, and (4) a tendency toward a decrease in chlorophyll adjacent to the Antarctic continent due primarily to freshening within the marginal sea ice zone. We use three different primary production algorithms to estimate the response of primary production to climate warming based on our estimated chlorophyll concentrations. The three algorithms give

  10. SMERGE: A multi-decadal root-zone soil moisture product for CONUS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crow, W. T.; Dong, J.; Tobin, K. J.; Torres, R.

    2017-12-01

    Multi-decadal root-zone soil moisture products are of value for a range of water resource and climate applications. The NASA-funded root-zone soil moisture merging project (SMERGE) seeks to develop such products through the optimal merging of land surface model predictions with surface soil moisture retrievals acquired from multi-sensor remote sensing products. This presentation will describe the creation and validation of a daily, multi-decadal (1979-2015), vertically-integrated (both surface to 40 cm and surface to 100 cm), 0.125-degree root-zone product over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The modeling backbone of the system is based on hourly root-zone soil moisture simulations generated by the Noah model (v3.2) operating within the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2). Remotely-sensed surface soil moisture retrievals are taken from the multi-sensor European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative soil moisture data set (ESA CCI SM). In particular, the talk will detail: 1) the exponential smoothing approach used to convert surface ESA CCI SM retrievals into root-zone soil moisture estimates, 2) the averaging technique applied to merge (temporally-sporadic) remotely-sensed with (continuous) NLDAS-2 land surface model estimates of root-zone soil moisture into the unified SMERGE product, and 3) the validation of the SMERGE product using long-term, ground-based soil moisture datasets available within CONUS.

  11. Surface Melt and Firn Density Evolution in the Western Greenland Percolation Zone Over the Past 50 Years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graeter, K.; Osterberg, E. C.; Hawley, R. L.; Thundercloud, Z. R.; Marshall, H. P.; Ferris, D. G.; Lewis, G.

    2016-12-01

    Predictions of the Greenland Ice Sheet's (GIS) contribution to sea-level rise in a warming climate depend on our ability to model the surface mass balance (SMB) processes occurring across the ice sheet. These processes are poorly constrained in the percolation zone, the region of the ice sheet where surface melt refreezes in the firn, thus preventing that melt from directly contributing to GIS mass loss. In this way, the percolation zone serves as a buffer to higher temperatures increasing mass loss. However, it is unknown how the percolation zone is evolving in a changing climate and to what extent the region will continue to serve as a buffer to future runoff. We collected seven shallow ( 22-30 m) firn cores from the Western Greenland percolation zone in May-June 2016 as part of the Greenland Traverse for Accumulation and Climate Studies (GreenTrACS) project. Here we present data on melt layer stratigraphy, density, and annual accumulation for each core to determine: (1) the temporal and spatial accumulation and melt refreeze patterns in the percolation zone of W. Greenland over the past 40 - 55 years, and (2) the impacts of changing melt and refreeze patterns on the near-surface density profile of the percolation zone. Three of the GreenTrACS firn cores re-occupy firn core sites collected in the 1970's-1990's, allowing us to more accurately quantify the evolution of the percolation zone surface melt and firn density during the most recent decades of summertime warming. This work is the basis for broader investigations into how changes in W. Greenland summertime climate are impacting the SMB of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

  12. Interactions between climate change and contaminants.

    PubMed

    Schiedek, Doris; Sundelin, Brita; Readman, James W; Macdonald, Robie W

    2007-12-01

    There is now general consensus that climate change is a global threat and a challenge for the 21st century. More and more information is available demonstrating how increased temperature may affect aquatic ecosystems and living resources or how increased water levels may impact coastal zones and their management. Many ecosystems are also affected by human releases of contaminants, for example from land based sources or the atmosphere, which also may cause severe effects. So far these two important stresses on ecosystems have mainly been discussed independently. The present paper is intended to increase awareness among scientists, coastal zone managers and decision makers that climate change will affect contaminant exposure and toxic effects and that both forms of stress will impact aquatic ecosystems and biota. Based on examples from different ecosystems, we discuss risks anticipated from contaminants in a rapidly changing environment and the research required to understand and predict how on-going and future climate change may alter risks from chemical pollution.

  13. Model Interpretation of Climate Signals: Application to the Asian Monsoon Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.

    2002-01-01

    This is an invited review paper intended to be published as a Chapter in a book entitled "The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes and Teleconnections" Cambridge University Press. The author begins with an introduction followed by a primer of climate models, including a description of various modeling strategies and methodologies used for climate diagnostics and predictability studies. Results from the CLIVAR Monsoon Model Intercomparison Project (MMIP) were used to illustrate the application of the strategies to modeling the Asian monsoon. It is shown that state-of-the art atmospheric GCMs have reasonable capability in simulating the seasonal mean large scale monsoon circulation, and response to El Nino. However, most models fail to capture the climatological as well as interannual anomalies of regional scale features of the Asian monsoon. These include in general over-estimating the intensity and/or misplacing the locations of the monsoon convection over the Bay of Bengal, and the zones of heavy rainfall near steep topography of the Indian subcontinent, Indonesia, and Indo-China and the Philippines. The intensity of convection in the equatorial Indian Ocean is generally weaker in models compared to observations. Most important, an endemic problem in all models is the weakness and the lack of definition of the Mei-yu rainbelt of the East Asia, in particular the part of the Mei-yu rainbelt over the East China Sea and southern Japan are under-represented. All models seem to possess certain amount of intraseasonal variability, but the monsoon transitions, such as the onset and breaks are less defined compared with the observed. Evidences are provided that a better simulation of the annual cycle and intraseasonal variability is a pre-requisite for better simulation and better prediction of interannual anomalies.

  14. Coastal vulnerability: climate change and natural hazards perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romieu, E.; Vinchon, C.

    2009-04-01

    Introduction Studying coastal zones as a territorial concept (Integrated coastal zone management) is an essential issue for managers, as they have to consider many different topics (natural hazards, resources management, tourism, climate change…). The recent approach in terms of "coastal vulnerability" studies (since the 90's) is the main tool used nowadays to help them in evaluating impacts of natural hazards on coastal zones, specially considering climate change. This present communication aims to highlight the difficulties in integrating this concept in risk analysis as it is usually practiced in natural hazards sciences. 1) Coastal vulnerability as a recent issue The concept of coastal vulnerability mainly appears in the International panel on climate change works of 1992 (IPCC. 2001), where it is presented as essential for climate change adaptation. The concept has been defined by a common methodology which proposes the assessment of seven indicators, in regards to a sea level rise of 1m in 2100: people affected, people at risk, capital value at loss, land at loss, wetland at loss, potential adaptation costs, people at risk assuming this adaptation. Many national assessments have been implemented (Nicholls, et al. 1995) and a global assessment was proposed for three indicators (Nicholls, et al. 1999). The DINAS-Coast project reuses this methodology to produce the DIVA-tool for coastal managers (Vafeidis, et al. 2004). Besides, many other methodologies for national or regional coastal vulnerability assessments have been developed (review by (UNFCCC. 2008). The use of aggregated vulnerability indicators (including geomorphology, hydrodynamics, climate change…) is widespread: the USGS coastal vulnerability index is used worldwide and was completed by a social vulnerability index (Boruff, et al. 2005). Those index-based methods propose a vulnerability mapping which visualise indicators of erosion, submersion and/or socio economic sensibility in coastal zones

  15. Elucidating Critical Zone Process Interactions with an Integrated Hydrology Model in a Headwaters Research Catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collins, C.; Maxwell, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Providence Creek (P300) watershed is an alpine headwaters catchment located at the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory (SSCZO). Evidence of groundwater-dependent vegetation and drought-induced tree mortality at P300 along with the effect of subsurface characterization on mountain ecohydrology motivates this study. A hyper resolution integrated hydrology model of this site, along with extensive instrumentation, provides an opportunity to study the effects of lateral groundwater flow on vegetation's tolerance to drought. ParFlow-CLM is a fully integrated surface-subsurface model that is driven with reconstructed meteorology, such as the North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 (NLDAS-2) dataset. However, large-scale data products mute orographic effects on climate at smaller scales. Climate variables often do not behave uniformly in highly heterogeneous mountain regions. Therefore, forcing physically-based integrated hydrologic models—especially of mountain headwaters catchments—with a large-scale data product is a major challenge. Obtaining reliable observations in complex terrain is challenging and while climate data products introduce uncertainties likewise, documented discrepancies between several data products and P300 observations suggest these data products may suffice. To tackle these issues, a suite of simulations was run to parse out (1) the effects of climate data source (data products versus observations) and (2) the effects of climate data spatial variability. One tool for evaluating the effect of climate data on model outputs is the relationship between latent head flux (LH) and evapotranspiration (ET) partitioning with water table depth (WTD). This zone of LH sensitivity to WTD is referred to as the "critical zone." Preliminary results suggest that these critical zone relationships are preserved despite forcing albeit significant shifts in magnitude. These results demonstrate that integrated hydrology models are sensitive

  16. Groundwater recharge simulation under the steady-state and transient climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pozdniakov, S.; Lykhina, N.

    2010-03-01

    Groundwater recharge simulation under the steady-state and transient climate conditions Diffusive groundwater recharge is a vertical water flux through the water table, i.e. through the boundary between the unsaturated and saturated zones. This flux features temporal and spatial changes due to variations in the climatic conditions, landscape the state of vegetation, and the spatial variability of vadoze zone characteristics. In a changing climate the non-steady state series of climatic characteristics will affect on the groundwater recharge.. A well-tested approach to calculating water flux through the vadoze zone is the application of Richard’s equations for a heterogeneous one-domain porosity continuum with specially formulated atmospheric boundary conditions at the ground surface. In this approach the climatic parameters are reflected in upper boundary conditions, while the recharge series is the flux through the low boundary. In this work developed by authors code Surfbal that simulates water cycle at surface of topsoil to take into account the various condition of precipitation transformation at the surface in different seasons under different vegetation cover including snow accumulation in winter and melting in spring is used to generate upper boundary condition at surface of topsoil for world-wide known Hydrus-1D code (Simunek et al, 2008). To estimate the proposal climate change effect we performed Surfbal and Hydrus simulation using the steady state climatic condition and transient condition due to global warming on example of Moscow region, Russia. The following scenario of climate change in 21 century in Moscow region was selected: the annual temperature will increase on 4C during 100 year and annual precipitation will increase on 10% (Solomon et al, 2007). Within the year the maximum increasing of temperature and precipitation falls on winter time, while in middle of summer temperature will remain almost the same as observed now and monthly

  17. Width of surface rupture zone for thrust earthquakes: implications for earthquake fault zoning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boncio, Paolo; Liberi, Francesca; Caldarella, Martina; Nurminen, Fiia-Charlotta

    2018-01-01

    The criteria for zoning the surface fault rupture hazard (SFRH) along thrust faults are defined by analysing the characteristics of the areas of coseismic surface faulting in thrust earthquakes. Normal and strike-slip faults have been deeply studied by other authors concerning the SFRH, while thrust faults have not been studied with comparable attention. Surface faulting data were compiled for 11 well-studied historic thrust earthquakes occurred globally (5.4 ≤ M ≤ 7.9). Several different types of coseismic fault scarps characterize the analysed earthquakes, depending on the topography, fault geometry and near-surface materials (simple and hanging wall collapse scarps, pressure ridges, fold scarps and thrust or pressure ridges with bending-moment or flexural-slip fault ruptures due to large-scale folding). For all the earthquakes, the distance of distributed ruptures from the principal fault rupture (r) and the width of the rupture zone (WRZ) were compiled directly from the literature or measured systematically in GIS-georeferenced published maps. Overall, surface ruptures can occur up to large distances from the main fault ( ˜ 2150 m on the footwall and ˜ 3100 m on the hanging wall). Most of the ruptures occur on the hanging wall, preferentially in the vicinity of the principal fault trace ( > ˜ 50 % at distances < ˜ 250 m). The widest WRZ are recorded where sympathetic slip (Sy) on distant faults occurs, and/or where bending-moment (B-M) or flexural-slip (F-S) fault ruptures, associated with large-scale folds (hundreds of metres to kilometres in wavelength), are present. A positive relation between the earthquake magnitude and the total WRZ is evident, while a clear correlation between the vertical displacement on the principal fault and the total WRZ is not found. The distribution of surface ruptures is fitted with probability density functions, in order to define a criterion to remove outliers (e.g. 90 % probability of the cumulative distribution

  18. Defining metrics of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in global climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schenzinger, Verena; Osprey, Scott; Gray, Lesley; Butchart, Neal

    2017-06-01

    As the dominant mode of variability in the tropical stratosphere, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) has been subject to extensive research. Though there is a well-developed theory of this phenomenon being forced by wave-mean flow interaction, simulating the QBO adequately in global climate models still remains difficult. This paper presents a set of metrics to characterize the morphology of the QBO using a number of different reanalysis datasets and the FU Berlin radiosonde observation dataset. The same metrics are then calculated from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 and Chemistry-Climate Model Validation Activity 2 simulations which included a representation of QBO-like behaviour to evaluate which aspects of the QBO are well captured by the models and which ones remain a challenge for future model development.

  19. Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change.

    Treesearch

    Jay R. Malcolm; Adam Markham; Ronald P. Neilson; Michael Oaraci

    2002-01-01

    Greefihouse-induced warming and resulting shifts in climatic zones may exceed the migration capabilities of some species. We used fourteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Global Vegetation Models (GVMs) to investigate possible migration rates required under CO2 doubled climatic forcing.

  20. Climate change. Climate in Medieval time.

    PubMed

    Bradley, Raymond S; Hughes, Malcolm K; Diaz, Henry F

    2003-10-17

    Many papers have referred to a "Medieval Warm Period." But how well defined is climate in this period, and was it as warm as or warmer than it is today? In their Perspective, Bradley et al. review the evidence and conclude that although the High Medieval (1100 to 1200 A.D.) was warmer than subsequent centuries, it was not warmer than the late 20th century. Moreover, the warmest Medieval temperatures were not synchronous around the globe. Large changes in precipitation patterns are a particular characteristic of "High Medieval" time. The underlying mechanisms for such changes must be elucidated further to inform the ongoing debate on natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change.

  1. Use of intelligent transportation systems in rural work zones.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2011-12-01

    This project defined an approach to integrating data collected and traveler information displayed in a work zone : with a regional transportation management center and/or other state websites. The project conducted a literature : review to define the...

  2. San Andreas tremor cascades define deep fault zone complexity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shelly, David R.

    2015-01-01

    Weak seismic vibrations - tectonic tremor - can be used to delineate some plate boundary faults. Tremor on the deep San Andreas Fault, located at the boundary between the Pacific and North American plates, is thought to be a passive indicator of slow fault slip. San Andreas Fault tremor migrates at up to 30 m s-1, but the processes regulating tremor migration are unclear. Here I use a 12-year catalogue of more than 850,000 low-frequency earthquakes to systematically analyse the high-speed migration of tremor along the San Andreas Fault. I find that tremor migrates most effectively through regions of greatest tremor production and does not propagate through regions with gaps in tremor production. I interpret the rapid tremor migration as a self-regulating cascade of seismic ruptures along the fault, which implies that tremor may be an active, rather than passive participant in the slip propagation. I also identify an isolated group of tremor sources that are offset eastwards beneath the San Andreas Fault, possibly indicative of the interface between the Monterey Microplate, a hypothesized remnant of the subducted Farallon Plate, and the North American Plate. These observations illustrate a possible link between the central San Andreas Fault and tremor-producing subduction zones.

  3. Global Assessment of Exploitable Surface Reservoir Storage under Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, L.; Parkinson, S.; Gidden, M.; Byers, E.; Satoh, Y.; Riahi, K.

    2016-12-01

    Surface water reservoirs provide us with reliable water supply systems, hydropower generation, flood control, and recreation services. Reliable reservoirs can be robust measures for water security and can help smooth out challenging seasonal variability of river flows. Yet, reservoirs also cause flow fragmentation in rivers and can lead to flooding of upstream areas, thereby displacing existing land-uses and ecosystems. The anticipated population growth, land use and climate change in many regions globally suggest a critical need to assess the potential for appropriate reservoir capacity that can balance rising demands with long-term water security. In this research, we assessed exploitable reservoir potential under climate change and human development constraints by deriving storage-yield relationships for 235 river basins globally. The storage-yield relationships map the amount of storage capacity required to meet a given water demand based on a 30-year inflow sequence. Runoff data is simulated with an ensemble of Global Hydrological Models (GHMs) for each of five bias-corrected general circulation models (GCMs) under four climate change pathways. These data are used to define future 30-year inflows in each river basin for time period between 2010 and 2080. The calculated capacity is then combined with geographical information of environmental and human development exclusion zones to further limit the storage capacity expansion potential in each basin. We investigated the reliability of reservoir potentials across different climate change scenarios and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to identify river basins where reservoir expansion will be particularly challenging. Preliminary results suggest large disparities in reservoir potential across basins: some basins have already approached exploitable reserves, while some others display abundant potential. Exclusions zones pose significant impact on the amount of actual exploitable storage and firm yields

  4. Climate change and the future of seed zones

    Treesearch

    Francis Kilkenny; Brad St. Clair; Matt Horning

    2013-01-01

    The use of native plants in wildland restoration is critical to the recovery and health of ecosystems. Information from genecological and reciprocal transplant common garden studies can be used to develop seed transfer guidelines and to predict how plants will respond to future climate change. Tools developed from these data, such as universal response functions and...

  5. Handbook for Conducting School Climate Improvement Projects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Howard, Eugene; And Others

    This book discusses practical ways to improve a school's climate by increasing both productivity and satisfaction concurrently. Chapter 1, "Defining School Climate," identifies the overarching goals of school climate improvement, the basic human needs that school climate must address, the factors that make up a school's climate and…

  6. Integrating Climate Change Resilience Features into the Incremental Refinement of an Existing Marine Park

    PubMed Central

    Beckley, Lynnath E.; Kobryn, Halina T.; Lombard, Amanda T.; Radford, Ben; Heyward, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Marine protected area (MPA) designs are likely to require iterative refinement as new knowledge is gained. In particular, there is an increasing need to consider the effects of climate change, especially the ability of ecosystems to resist and/or recover from climate-related disturbances, within the MPA planning process. However, there has been limited research addressing the incorporation of climate change resilience into MPA design. This study used Marxan conservation planning software with fine-scale shallow water (<20 m) bathymetry and habitat maps, models of major benthic communities for deeper water, and comprehensive human use information from Ningaloo Marine Park in Western Australia to identify climate change resilience features to integrate into the incremental refinement of the marine park. The study assessed the representation of benthic habitats within the current marine park zones, identified priority areas of high resilience for inclusion within no-take zones and examined if any iterative refinements to the current no-take zones are necessary. Of the 65 habitat classes, 16 did not meet representation targets within the current no-take zones, most of which were in deeper offshore waters. These deeper areas also demonstrated the highest resilience values and, as such, Marxan outputs suggested minor increases to the current no-take zones in the deeper offshore areas. This work demonstrates that inclusion of fine-scale climate change resilience features within the design process for MPAs is feasible, and can be applied to future marine spatial planning practices globally. PMID:27529820

  7. Contribution of crop model structure, parameters and climate projections to uncertainty in climate change impact assessments.

    PubMed

    Tao, Fulu; Rötter, Reimund P; Palosuo, Taru; Gregorio Hernández Díaz-Ambrona, Carlos; Mínguez, M Inés; Semenov, Mikhail A; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian; Nendel, Claas; Specka, Xenia; Hoffmann, Holger; Ewert, Frank; Dambreville, Anaelle; Martre, Pierre; Rodríguez, Lucía; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Gaiser, Thomas; Höhn, Jukka G; Salo, Tapio; Ferrise, Roberto; Bindi, Marco; Cammarano, Davide; Schulman, Alan H

    2018-03-01

    Climate change impact assessments are plagued with uncertainties from many sources, such as climate projections or the inadequacies in structure and parameters of the impact model. Previous studies tried to account for the uncertainty from one or two of these. Here, we developed a triple-ensemble probabilistic assessment using seven crop models, multiple sets of model parameters and eight contrasting climate projections together to comprehensively account for uncertainties from these three important sources. We demonstrated the approach in assessing climate change impact on barley growth and yield at Jokioinen, Finland in the Boreal climatic zone and Lleida, Spain in the Mediterranean climatic zone, for the 2050s. We further quantified and compared the contribution of crop model structure, crop model parameters and climate projections to the total variance of ensemble output using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). Based on the triple-ensemble probabilistic assessment, the median of simulated yield change was -4% and +16%, and the probability of decreasing yield was 63% and 31% in the 2050s, at Jokioinen and Lleida, respectively, relative to 1981-2010. The contribution of crop model structure to the total variance of ensemble output was larger than that from downscaled climate projections and model parameters. The relative contribution of crop model parameters and downscaled climate projections to the total variance of ensemble output varied greatly among the seven crop models and between the two sites. The contribution of downscaled climate projections was on average larger than that of crop model parameters. This information on the uncertainty from different sources can be quite useful for model users to decide where to put the most effort when preparing or choosing models or parameters for impact analyses. We concluded that the triple-ensemble probabilistic approach that accounts for the uncertainties from multiple important sources provide more comprehensive

  8. Utilizing forest tree genetic diversity for an adaptation of forest to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schueler, Silvio; Lackner, Magdalena; Chakraborty, Debojyoti

    2017-04-01

    Since climate conditions are considered to be major determinants of tree species' distribution ranges and drivers of local adaptation, anthropogenic climate change (CC) is expected to modify the distribution of tree species, tree species diversity and the forest ecosystems connected to these species. The expected speed of environmental change is significantly larger than the natural migration and adaptation capacity of trees and makes spontaneous adjustment of forest ecosystems improbable. Planting alternative tree species and utilizing the tree species' intrinsic adaptive capacity are considered to be the most promising adaptation strategy. Each year about 900 million seedlings of the major tree species are being planted in Central Europe. At present, the utilization of forest reproductive material is mainly restricted to nationally defined ecoregions (seed/provenance zones), but when seedlings planted today become adult, they might be maladapted, as the climate conditions within ecoregions changed significantly. In the cooperation project SUSTREE, we develop transnational delineation models for forest seed transfer and genetic conservation based on species distribution models and available intra-specific climate-response function. These models are being connected to national registers of forest reproductive material in order support nursery and forest managers by selecting the appropriate seedling material for future plantations. In the long-term, European and national policies as well as regional recommendations for provenances use need to adapted to consider the challenges of climate change.

  9. SIPEX--Exploring the Antarctic Sea Ice Zone

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zicus, Sandra; Dobson, Jane; Worby, Anthony

    2008-01-01

    Sea ice in the polar regions plays a key role in both regulating global climate and maintaining marine ecosystems. The international Sea Ice Physics and Ecosystem eXperiment (SIPEX) explored the sea ice zone around Antarctica in September and October 2007, investigating relationships between the physical sea ice environment and the structure of…

  10. Organizational climate and culture.

    PubMed

    Schneider, Benjamin; Ehrhart, Mark G; Macey, William H

    2013-01-01

    Organizational climate and organizational culture theory and research are reviewed. The article is first framed with definitions of the constructs, and preliminary thoughts on their interrelationships are noted. Organizational climate is briefly defined as the meanings people attach to interrelated bundles of experiences they have at work. Organizational culture is briefly defined as the basic assumptions about the world and the values that guide life in organizations. A brief history of climate research is presented, followed by the major accomplishments in research on the topic with regard to levels issues, the foci of climate research, and studies of climate strength. A brief overview of the more recent study of organizational culture is then introduced, followed by samples of important thinking and research on the roles of leadership and national culture in understanding organizational culture and performance and culture as a moderator variable in research in organizational behavior. The final section of the article proposes an integration of climate and culture thinking and research and concludes with practical implications for the management of effective contemporary organizations. Throughout, recommendations are made for additional thinking and research.

  11. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, locations that may be unusually buffered from climate change effects so as to increase persistence of valued resources. Here we distinguish between paleoecological and contemporary viewpoints, characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia, summarize the process of identifying and mapping them, and delineate how refugia can fit into the existing framework of natural resource management. We also suggest three primary courses of action at these sites: prioritization, protection, and propagation. Although not a panacea, managing climate change refugia can be an important adaptation option for conserving valuable resources in the face of ongoing and future climate change. “In a nutshell” (100 words) • Climate change refugia are defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change, enabling persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources. • Refugia can be incorporated as key components of a climate adaptation strategy because their prioritization by management may enable their associated resources to persist locally and eventually spread to future suitable habitat. • Steps for

  12. 33 CFR 165.503 - Security Zone; Captain of the Port Hampton Roads Zone.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... section— Certain dangerous cargo or CDC means a material defined as CDC in 33 CFR 160.204. Designated... a passenger vessel or vessel carrying a CDC, while the passenger vessel or vessel carrying CDC is... vessel or vessel carrying a CDC within the Captain of the Port Hampton Roads zone, unless traveling at...

  13. 33 CFR 165.503 - Security Zone; Captain of the Port Hampton Roads Zone.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... section— Certain dangerous cargo or CDC means a material defined as CDC in 33 CFR 160.204. Designated... a passenger vessel or vessel carrying a CDC, while the passenger vessel or vessel carrying CDC is... vessel or vessel carrying a CDC within the Captain of the Port Hampton Roads zone, unless traveling at...

  14. 33 CFR 165.503 - Security Zone; Captain of the Port Hampton Roads Zone.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... section— Certain dangerous cargo or CDC means a material defined as CDC in 33 CFR 160.204. Designated... a passenger vessel or vessel carrying a CDC, while the passenger vessel or vessel carrying CDC is... vessel or vessel carrying a CDC within the Captain of the Port Hampton Roads zone, unless traveling at...

  15. ClimateSpark: An In-memory Distributed Computing Framework for Big Climate Data Analytics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, F.; Yang, C. P.; Duffy, D.; Schnase, J. L.; Li, Z.

    2016-12-01

    Massive array-based climate data is being generated from global surveillance systems and model simulations. They are widely used to analyze the environment problems, such as climate changes, natural hazards, and public health. However, knowing the underlying information from these big climate datasets is challenging due to both data- and computing- intensive issues in data processing and analyzing. To tackle the challenges, this paper proposes ClimateSpark, an in-memory distributed computing framework to support big climate data processing. In ClimateSpark, the spatiotemporal index is developed to enable Apache Spark to treat the array-based climate data (e.g. netCDF4, HDF4) as native formats, which are stored in Hadoop Distributed File System (HDFS) without any preprocessing. Based on the index, the spatiotemporal query services are provided to retrieve dataset according to a defined geospatial and temporal bounding box. The data subsets will be read out, and a data partition strategy will be applied to equally split the queried data to each computing node, and store them in memory as climateRDDs for processing. By leveraging Spark SQL and User Defined Function (UDFs), the climate data analysis operations can be conducted by the intuitive SQL language. ClimateSpark is evaluated by two use cases using the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) climate reanalysis dataset. One use case is to conduct the spatiotemporal query and visualize the subset results in animation; the other one is to compare different climate model outputs using Taylor-diagram service. Experimental results show that ClimateSpark can significantly accelerate data query and processing, and enable the complex analysis services served in the SQL-style fashion.

  16. Regional agricultural susceptibility to climate variability: A district level analysis of Maharashtra, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swami, D.; Parthasarathy, D.; Dave, P.

    2016-12-01

    Climate variability (CV) has adverse impact on crop production and inadequate research carried out to assess the impact of CV on crop production has aggravated the ability of farmers to adapt (Jones et al., 2000). A better understanding of CV is required to reduce the vulnerability of farmers towards existing and future CV. Further, a wide variation in policies related to climate change exists at global level and considering the state/nation as a single unit for policy formulations may lead to under-representation of regional problems. Hence, the present work chooses to focus on CVassessment at the regional/district level of Maharashtra state in India. Here, interannual variability of wet and dry spells from year 1951-2013, are used as a measure of CV. Statistical declining trend of wet spells for (12/34) districts was observed across all the districts of Maharashtra. Districts showing highest change in wet spell pre and post 1976/77 are Beed, Latur and Osmanabad belong to Central Maharashtra Plateau zone and Western Maharashtra scarcity zone. Dry spells for (8/34) districts were found to statistically increase across all the districts of Maharashtra. Washim, Yavatmal of Vidarbha zone; and Latur, Parbhani of Amravati division belonging to Central Maharashtra Plateau zone and Central Vidarbha zone are found to reflect the large variation in their behavior pre and post 1976/77. Findings reveal that districts from the same agro-climate zones respond differently to CV, indicating significant spatial heterogeneity within the region. Trend in monsoon variability was found to be prominent after 1976/77, suggesting an enhanced role of climate change on climate variability after 1977. It necessitates separate policy formulation related to CV and agriculture for each district to bring out the solution for regional issues (socio-political, farmers, agriculturalists, economical) more clearly. Further we have attempted to link agriculture vulnerability and crop sensitivity to

  17. Modelled spatiotemporal variability of outdoor thermal comfort in local climate zones of the city of Brno, Czech Republic.

    PubMed

    Geletič, Jan; Lehnert, Michal; Savić, Stevan; Milošević, Dragan

    2018-05-15

    This study uses the MUKLIMO_3 urban climate model (in German, Mikroskaliges Urbanes KLImaMOdell in 3-Dimensionen) and measurements from an urban climate network in order to simulate, validate and analyse the spatiotemporal pattern of human thermal comfort outdoors in the city of Brno (Czech Republic) during a heat-wave period. HUMIDEX, a heat index designed to quantify human heat exposure, was employed to assess thermal comfort, employing air temperature and relative humidity data. The city was divided into local climate zones (LCZs) in order to access differences in intra-urban thermal comfort. Validation of the model results, based on the measurement dates within the urban monitoring network, confirmed that the MUKLIMO_3 micro-scale model had the capacity to simulate the main spatiotemporal patterns of thermal comfort in an urban area and its vicinity. The results suggested that statistically significant differences in outdoor thermal comfort exist in the majority of cases between different LCZs. The most built-up LCZ types (LCZs 2, 3, 5, 8 and 10) were disclosed as the most uncomfortable areas of the city. Hence, conditions of great discomfort (HUMIDEX >40) were recorded in these areas, mainly in the afternoon hours (from 13.00 to 18.00 CEST), while some thermal discomfort continued overnight. In contrast, HUMIDEX values in sparsely built-up LCZ 9 and non-urban LCZs were substantially lower and indicated better thermal conditions for the urban population. Interestingly, the model captured a local increase of HUMIDEX values arising out of air humidity in LCZs with the presence of more vegetation (LCZs A and B) and in the vicinity of larger bodies of water (LCZ G). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. What Is Climate Change?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beswick, Adele

    2007-01-01

    Weather consists of those meteorological events, such as rain, wind and sunshine, which can change day-by-day or even hour-by-hour. Climate is the average of all these events, taken over a period of time. The climate varies over different parts of the world. Climate is usually defined as the average of the weather over a 30-year period. It is when…

  19. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

    2010-12-14

    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, andmore » we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.« less

  20. Developing ecological fingerprints for ecoclimatic zones in Australian drylands to inform land restoration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Escribano Velasco, Paula; Garcia, Monica

    2017-04-01

    With more than 25% of the global surface affected by land degradation processes, there is an urgent need to restore disturbed ecosystems worldwide. Increased arid conditions in projected scenarios of climate change need to be acknowledged in restoration programs; this is particularly critical in dryland ecosystems where significant changes are expected in their structure and functioning worldwide. Australia is the driest inhabited continent in the world with 70% of the country classified as arid or semi-arid (average annual rainfall of 250 mm or less). Moreover, Australia has undergone massive land-use changes in the last decades and the landscape is highly degraded and fragmented. These conditions position the country as one of the climate change vulnerable "hot spots" globally. In this research, we aim to evaluate a broad range of ecological indicators in natural Australian dryland ecosystems (both disturbed and undisturbed) that allow us to i) identify those areas most vulnerable to potential and environmental changes and ii) tracking the effectiveness of restoration practices. The most relevant indicators will be selected to inform decision-making in the design of management strategies to address the potential negative effects of climate change and further land degradation. These ecological indicators will be measured in 10 Australian ecoclimatic units that combine the main vegetation functional types and climate zones based on the aridity index as follows: hum¬mock grasslands in the hyper-arid zone; acacia shrublands, hummock grasslands and tussock grasslands in the arid zone; chenopod shrubs, hummock grasslands, mallee woodlands and tussock grasslands in the semi-arid zone and eucalyptus and acacia forest in the dry sub-humid zone. A set of fingerprints will be created to diagnose each ecoclimatic unit using a wide range of ecological indicators related with the ecosystem's composition, structure and function. We will combine novel technologies and

  1. Mobile machine hazardous working zone warning system

    DOEpatents

    Schiffbauer, William H.; Ganoe, Carl W.

    1999-01-01

    A warning system is provided for a mobile working machine to alert an individual of a potentially dangerous condition in the event the individual strays into a hazardous working zone of the machine. The warning system includes a transmitter mounted on the machine and operable to generate a uniform magnetic field projecting beyond an outer periphery of the machine in defining a hazardous working zone around the machine during operation thereof. A receiver, carried by the individual and activated by the magnetic field, provides an alarm signal to alert the individual when he enters the hazardous working zone of the machine.

  2. Mobile machine hazardous working zone warning system

    DOEpatents

    Schiffbauer, W.H.; Ganoe, C.W.

    1999-08-17

    A warning system is provided for a mobile working machine to alert an individual of a potentially dangerous condition in the event the individual strays into a hazardous working zone of the machine. The warning system includes a transmitter mounted on the machine and operable to generate a uniform magnetic field projecting beyond an outer periphery of the machine in defining a hazardous working zone around the machine during operation. A receiver, carried by the individual and activated by the magnetic field, provides an alarm signal to alert the individual when he enters the hazardous working zone of the machine. 3 figs.

  3. Spatio-Temporal Pattern Analysis for Regional Climate Change Using Mathematical Morphology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Das, M.; Ghosh, S. K.

    2015-07-01

    Of late, significant changes in climate with their grave consequences have posed great challenges on humankind. Thus, the detection and assessment of climatic changes on a regional scale is gaining importance, since it helps to adopt adequate mitigation and adaptation measures. In this paper, we have presented a novel approach for detecting spatio-temporal pattern of regional climate change by exploiting the theory of mathematical morphology. At first, the various climatic zones in the region have been identified by using multifractal cross-correlation analysis (MF-DXA) of different climate variables of interest. Then, the directional granulometry with four different structuring elements has been studied to detect the temporal changes in spatial distribution of the identified climatic zones in the region and further insights have been drawn with respect to morphological uncertainty index and Hurst exponent. The approach has been evaluated with the daily time series data of land surface temperature (LST) and precipitation rate, collected from Microsoft Research - Fetch Climate Explorer, to analyze the spatio-temporal climatic pattern-change in the Eastern and North-Eastern regions of India throughout four quarters of the 20th century.

  4. Effects of land use/land cover and climate changes on surface runoff in a semi-humid and semi-arid transition zone in northwest China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, Jing; He, Fan; Jiu Xiong, Yu; Qiu, Guo Yu

    2017-01-01

    Water resources, which are considerably affected by land use/land cover (LULC) and climate changes, are a key limiting factor in highly vulnerable ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions. The impacts of LULC and climate changes on water resources must be assessed in these areas. However, conflicting results regarding the effects of LULC and climate changes on runoff have been reported in relatively large basins, such as the Jinghe River basin (JRB), which is a typical catchment (> 45 000 km2) located in a semi-humid and arid transition zone on the central Loess Plateau, northwest China. In this study, we focused on quantifying both the combined and isolated impacts of LULC and climate changes on surface runoff. We hypothesized that under climatic warming and drying conditions, LULC changes, which are primarily caused by intensive human activities such as the Grain for Green Program, will considerably alter runoff in the JRB. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was adopted to perform simulations. The simulated results indicated that although runoff increased very little between the 1970s and the 2000s due to the combined effects of LULC and climate changes, LULC and climate changes affected surface runoff differently in each decade, e.g., runoff increased with increased precipitation between the 1970s and the 1980s (precipitation contributed to 88 % of the runoff increase). Thereafter, runoff decreased and was increasingly influenced by LULC changes, which contributed to 44 % of the runoff changes between the 1980s and 1990s and 71 % of the runoff changes between the 1990s and 2000s. Our findings revealed that large-scale LULC under the Grain for Green Program has had an important effect on the hydrological cycle since the late 1990s. Additionally, the conflicting findings regarding the effects of LULC and climate changes on runoff in relatively large basins are likely caused by uncertainties in hydrological simulations.

  5. Climate change vulnerability to agrarian ecosystem of small Island: evidence from Sagar Island, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mandal, S.; Satpati, L. N.; Choudhury, B. U.; Sadhu, S.

    2018-04-01

    The present study assessed climate change vulnerability in agricultural sector of low-lying Sagar Island of Bay of Bengal. Vulnerability indices were estimated using spatially aggregated biophysical and socio-economic parameters by applying principal component analysis and equal weight method. The similarities and differences of outputs of these two methods were analysed across the island. From the integration of outputs and based on the severity of vulnerability, explicit vulnerable zones were demarcated spatially. Results revealed that life subsistence agriculture in 11.8% geographical area (2829 ha) of the island along the western coast falls under very high vulnerable zone (VHVZ VI of 84-99%) to climate change. Comparatively higher values of exposure (0.53 ± 0.26) and sensitivity (0.78 ± 0.14) subindices affirmed that the VHV zone is highly exposed to climate stressor with very low adaptive capacity (ADI= 0.24 ± 0.16) to combat vulnerability to climate change. Hence, food security for a population of >22 thousands comprising >3.7 thousand agrarian households are highly exposed to climate change. Another 17% area comprising 17.5% population covering 20% villages in north-western and eastern parts of the island also falls under high vulnerable (VI= 61%-77%) zone. Findings revealed large spatial heterogeneity in the degree of vulnerability across the island and thus, demands devising area specific planning (adaptation and mitigation strategies) to address the climate change impact implications both at macro and micro levels.

  6. Climate services for the assessment of climate change impacts and risks in coastal areas at the regional scale: the North Adriatic case study (Italy).

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valentina, Gallina; Torresan, Silvia; Giannini, Valentina; Rizzi, Jonathan; Zabeo, Alex; Gualdi, Silvio; Bellucci, Alessio; Giorgi, Filippo; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    At the international level, the interest for climate services is rising due to the social and economic benefits that different stakeholders can achieve to manage climate risks and take advantage of the opportunities associated with climate change impacts. However, there is a significant gap of tools aimed at providing information about risks and impacts induced by climate change and allowing non-expert stakeholders to use both climate-model and climate-impact data. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), the case study of the North Adriatic Sea is aimed at analysing the need of climate information and the effectiveness of climate services for the integrated assessment of climate change impacts in coastal zones of the North Adriatic Sea at the regional to local scale. A participative approach was developed and applied to identify relevant stakeholders which have a mandate for coastal zone management and to interact with them in order to elicit their climate information needs. Specifically, the participative approach was carried out by means of two local workshops and trough the administration of a questionnaire related to climate information and services. The results of the process allowed identifying three major themes of interest for local stakeholders (i.e. hydro-climatic regime, coastal and marine environment, agriculture) and their preferences concerning key climate variables (e.g. extreme events, sea-level, wave height), mid-term temporal projections (i.e. for the next 30-40 years) and medium-high spatial resolution (i.e. from 1 to 50 km). Furthermore, the workshops highlighted stakeholder concern about several climate-related impacts (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surge, droughts) and vulnerable receptors (e.g. beaches, wetlands, agricultural areas) to be considered in vulnerability and risk assessment studies for the North Adriatic coastal zones. This information was used by climate and environmental risk experts in order to develop targeted climate information and

  7. Molecular data and ecological niche modeling reveal population dynamics of widespread shrub Forsythia suspensa (Oleaceae) in China’s warm-temperate zone in response to climate change during the Pleistocene

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Despite its high number of endemic deciduous broad-leaved species in China’s warm-temperate zone, far less attention has been paid to phylogeographic studies in this region. In this work, the phylogeographic history of Forsythia suspensa endemic to China’s warm-temperate zone was investigated to explore the effect of climate change during the Pleistocene on the distribution of this deciduous broad-leaved species in China. Results The cpDNA data revealed seven phylogeographical groups corresponding to geographical regions. By contrast, the nrDNA data supported the samples clustered into three groups, which was inconsistent with separate geographical regions supported by cpDNA data. Ecological niche modeling showed that the climatically suitable area during the cold period was larger than that during the warm period. Conclusions Both molecular data and ecological niche modeling indicated that F. suspensa expanded to nearby low-elevation plains in the glacial periods, and retreated to mountaintops during interglacial warmer stages. This study thus supported that F. suspensa persisted in situ during the glacial of the Pleistocene with enlarged distribution area, contrary to the hypothesis of long distance southward migration or large-scale range contraction. PMID:24885704

  8. Assessing the Effects of Climate on Global Fluvial Discharge Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansford, M. R.; Plink-Bjorklund, P.

    2017-12-01

    Plink-Bjorklund (2015) established the link between precipitation seasonality and river discharge variability in the monsoon domain and subtropical rivers (see also Leier et al, 2005; Fielding et al., 2009), resulting in distinct morphodynamic processes and a sedimentary record distinct from perennial precipitation zone in tropical rainforest zone and mid latitudes. This study further develops our understanding of discharge variability using a modern global river database created with data from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC). The database consists of daily discharge for 595 river stations and examines them using a series of discharge variability indexes (DVI) on different temporal scales to examine how discharge variability occurs in river systems around the globe. These indexes examine discharge of individual days and monthly averages that allows for comparison of river systems against each other, regardless of size of the river. Comparing river discharge patterns in seven climate zones (arid, cold, humid subtropics, monsoonal, polar, rainforest, and temperate) based off the Koppen-Geiger climate classifications reveals a first order climatic control on discharge patterns and correspondingly sediment transport. Four groupings of discharge patterns emerge when coming climate zones and DVI: persistent, moderate, seasonal, and erratic. This dataset has incredible predictive power about the nature of discharge in fluvial systems around the world. These seasonal effects on surface water supply affects river morphodynamics and sedimentation on a wide timeframe, ranging from large single events to an inter-annual or even decadal timeframe. The resulting sedimentary deposits lead to differences in fluvial architecture on a range of depositional scales from sedimentary structures and bedforms to channel complex systems. These differences are important to accurately model for several reasons, ranging from stratigraphic and paleoenviromental reconstructions to more

  9. Climate change adaptation strategies and mitigation policies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García Fernández, Cristina

    2015-04-01

    The pace of climate change and the consequent warming of the Earth's surface is increasing vulnerability and decreasing adaptive capacity. Achieving a successful adaptation depends on the development of technology, institutional organization, financing availability and the exchange of information. Populations living in arid and semi-arid zones, low-lying coastal areas, land with water shortages or at risk of overflow or small islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Due to increasing population density in sensitive areas, some regions have become more vulnerable to events such as storms, floods and droughts, like the river basins and coastal plains. Human activities have fragmented and increased the vulnerability of ecosystems, which limit both, their natural adaptation and the effectiveness of the measures adopted. Adaptation means to carry out the necessary modifications for society to adapt to new climatic conditions in order to reduce their vulnerability to climate change. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) and to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or face the consequences. Adaptation reduces the adverse impacts of climate change and enhance beneficial impacts, but will not prevent substantial cost that are produced by all damages. The performances require adaptation actions. These are defined and implemented at national, regional or local levels since many of the impacts and vulnerabilities depend on the particular economic, geographic and social circumstances of each country or region. We will present some adaptation strategies at national and local level and revise some cases of its implementation in several vulnerable areas. However, adaptation to climate change must be closely related to mitigation policies because the degree of change planned in different climatic variables is a function of the concentration levels that are achieved

  10. A Way Forward: Cooperative Solutions to Our Climate Challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Little, L. J.; Byrne, J. M.

    2014-12-01

    Solving the global climate crisis is a multidisciplinary challenge. The world is seeking solutions to climate change. The climate research and education community must move beyond the realm of debating the science - we MUST provide the solutions. The research community understands the science and many of the solutions very well. This project will address the specifics of solutions involving social, political and science disciplines. The content is targeted to multidisciplinary education at the senior undergraduate and graduate levels in universities and colleges. Humanity has already changed the climate and current greenhouse gas emission (GHG) projections indicate our world will warm 2-6° C within a young person's lifetime. We must coordinate societal mitigation and adaptation policies, programs and technology transformations. There is now a dramatic need for many, many highly trained multidisciplinary climate change solutions professionals that understand the complexities of the challenges and can work through the social, political and science tribulations needed to sustain communities around the world. This proposed education project: Provides an introduction to the social, political, technical, health and well-being challenges of climate change; Defines and describes the unprecedented changes to personal and community lifestyle, and consumption of energy and other resources; Examines ways and means for rapid transition of energy systems from fossil fuels to clean renewable technologies. Evaluates redevelopment of our infrastructure to withstand increasing weather extremes; Inventories possible abandonment and/or protection of infrastructure that cannot be redeveloped or reworked, particularly with respect to coastal zones where substantial populations currently live. We propose an online living textbook project. Chapter contributions will be invited from outstanding solutions research professionals from around the world. The online presence is the best means

  11. Concurrent validity of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) and AUDIT zones in defining levels of severity among out-patients with alcohol dependence in the COMBINE study.

    PubMed

    Donovan, Dennis M; Kivlahan, Daniel R; Doyle, Suzanne R; Longabaugh, Richard; Greenfield, Shelly F

    2006-12-01

    To examine among alcohol-dependent out-patient clients the concurrent validity of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) total score and 'zones' suggested by the World Health Organization for defining levels of severity of alcohol use problems. Participants were classified into AUDIT zones (AUDIT total score = 8-15, 16-19, 20-40) and compared on measures of demographics, treatment goals, alcohol consumption, alcohol-related consequences, severity of dependence, physiological dependence, tolerance, withdrawal and biomarkers of alcohol use. Eleven out-patient academic clinical research centers across the United States. Participants Alcohol dependent individuals (n = 1335) entering out-patient treatment in the Combined Pharmacotherapies and Behavioral Interventions (COMBINE) study. The AUDIT was administered as part of an initial screening. Baseline measures used for concurrent validation included the Structured Clinical Interview for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual, 4th edition (DSM-IV) Disorders, the Alcohol Dependence Scale, the Drinker Inventory of Consequences, the Obsessive-Compulsive Drinking Scale, the University of Rhode Island Change Assessment, the Thoughts about Abstinence Scale, the Form-90, %carbohydrate-deficient transferrin and gamma-glutamyl transferase. Findings Indicators of severity of dependence and alcohol-related problems increased linearly with total score and differed significantly across AUDIT zones. The highest zone, with scores of 20 and above, was markedly different with respect to severity from the other two zones and members of this group endorsed an abstinence goal more strongly. The AUDIT total score is a brief measure that appears to provide an index of severity of dependence in a sample of alcohol-dependent individuals seeking out-patient treatment, extending its potential utility beyond its more traditional role as a screening instrument in general populations.

  12. Capture zones for simple aquifers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McElwee, Carl D.

    1991-01-01

    Capture zones showing the area influenced by a well within a certain time are useful for both aquifer protection and cleanup. If hydrodynamic dispersion is neglected, a deterministic curve defines the capture zone. Analytical expressions for the capture zones can be derived for simple aquifers. However, the capture zone equations are transcendental and cannot be explicitly solved for the coordinates of the capture zone boundary. Fortunately, an iterative scheme allows the solution to proceed quickly and efficiently even on a modest personal computer. Three forms of the analytical solution must be used in an iterative scheme to cover the entire region of interest, after the extreme values of the x coordinate are determined by an iterative solution. The resulting solution is a discrete one, and usually 100-1000 intervals along the x-axis are necessary for a smooth definition of the capture zone. The presented program is written in FORTRAN and has been used in a variety of computing environments. No graphics capability is included with the program; it is assumed the user has access to a commercial package. The superposition of capture zones for multiple wells is expected to be satisfactory if the spacing is not too close. Because this program deals with simple aquifers, the results rarely will be the final word in a real application.

  13. Influence of two different geo-climatic zones on the prevalence and time trends of asthma symptoms among Spanish adolescents and schoolchildren

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García-Marcos, Luis; Batllés-Garrido, José; Blanco-Quirós, Alfredo; García-Hernández, Gloria; Guillén-Grima, Francisco; González-Díaz, Carlos; García-Merino, Águeda; Arnedo-Pena, Alberto; Busquets-Monge, Rosa M.; Morales-Suárez-Varela, María; López-Silvarrey-Varela, Ángel; García-Andoin, Nekane

    2009-01-01

    Few studies have focused on the long-term influence of the climate on the prevalence of asthma. The aim of this study is to establish the influence of geo-climatic conditions on the prevalence of asthma symptoms both in adolescents and schoolchildren, and to discover if this influence is associated with their time trends. Eight centres in Spain performed both ISAAC phases I (1994) and III (2002) in children 13-14 years old. Six of them also surveyed children 6-7 years old. For each age group and phase, about 3,000 children were surveyed per centre. This study examines the prevalence of current wheeze and severe current wheeze in two different geo-climatic zones, coast and plateau, considering their relative humidity and temperature range. In both age groups, the mean asthma prevalence on the coast, for phase I and III, was significantly higher than on the plateau. Living on the plateau was an independent protective factor for current wheeze and severe current wheeze for the two age groups. Within the coastal centres, the increase of the annual relative humidity was a statistical significant risk factor for current wheeze, the same trend existing for current severe wheeze. These effects were independent of the sex and of the phase of the study. The prevalence of asthma and severe asthma symptoms is more frequent on the coast of Spain as compared to the inner plateau. This finding was repeated both in 1994 and in 2002.

  14. Climate Data Initiative: A Geocuration Effort to Support Climate Resilience

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ramachandran, Rahul; Bugbee, Kaylin; Tilmes, Curt; Pinheiro Privette, Ana

    2015-01-01

    Curation is traditionally defined as the process of collecting and organizing information around a common subject matter or a topic of interest and typically occurs in museums, art galleries, and libraries. The task of organizing data around specific topics or themes is a vibrant and growing effort in the biological sciences but to date this effort has not been actively pursued in the Earth sciences. In this paper, we introduce the concept of geocuration and define it as the act of searching, selecting, and synthesizing Earth science data/metadata and information from across disciplines and repositories into a single, cohesive, and useful compendium We present the Climate Data Initiative (CDI) project as an exemplar example. The CDI project is a systematic effort to manually curate and share openly available climate data from various federal agencies. CDI is a broad multi-agency effort of the U.S. government and seeks to leverage the extensive existing federal climate-relevant data to stimulate innovation and private-sector entrepreneurship to support national climate-change preparedness. We describe the geocuration process used in CDI project, lessons learned, and suggestions to improve similar geocuration efforts in the future.

  15. Climate data initiative: A geocuration effort to support climate resilience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramachandran, Rahul; Bugbee, Kaylin; Tilmes, Curt; Privette, Ana Pinheiro

    2016-03-01

    Curation is traditionally defined as the process of collecting and organizing information around a common subject matter or a topic of interest and typically occurs in museums, art galleries, and libraries. The task of organizing data around specific topics or themes is a vibrant and growing effort in the biological sciences but to date this effort has not been actively pursued in the Earth sciences. In this paper, we introduce the concept of geocuration and define it as the act of searching, selecting, and synthesizing Earth science data/metadata and information from across disciplines and repositories into a single, cohesive, and useful collection. We present the Climate Data Initiative (CDI) project as a prototypical example. The CDI project is a systematic effort to manually curate and share openly available climate data from various federal agencies. CDI is a broad multi-agency effort of the U.S. government and seeks to leverage the extensive existing federal climate-relevant data to stimulate innovation and private-sector entrepreneurship to support national climate-change preparedness. We describe the geocuration process used in the CDI project, lessons learned, and suggestions to improve similar geocuration efforts in the future.

  16. A regime shift in the Sun-Climate connection with the end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly.

    PubMed

    Smirnov, D A; Breitenbach, S F M; Feulner, G; Lechleitner, F A; Prufer, K M; Baldini, J U L; Marwan, N; Kurths, J

    2017-09-11

    Understanding the influence of changes in solar activity on Earth's climate and distinguishing it from other forcings, such as volcanic activity, remains a major challenge for palaeoclimatology. This problem is best approached by investigating how these variables influenced past climate conditions as recorded in high precision paleoclimate archives. In particular, determining if the climate system response to these forcings changes through time is critical. Here we use the Wiener-Granger causality approach along with well-established cross-correlation analysis to investigate the causal relationship between solar activity, volcanic forcing, and climate as reflected in well-established Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) rainfall proxy records from Yok Balum Cave, southern Belize. Our analysis reveals a consistent influence of volcanic activity on regional Central American climate over the last two millennia. However, the coupling between solar variability and local climate varied with time, with a regime shift around 1000-1300 CE after which the solar-climate coupling weakened considerably.

  17. The Greenhouse Effect and Climate Feedbacks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Covey, C.; Haberle, R. M.; McKay, C. P.; Titov, D. V.

    This chapter reviews the theory of the greenhouse effect and climate feedback. It also compares the theory with observations, using examples taken from all four known terrestrial worlds with substantial atmospheres: Venus, Earth, Mars, and Titan. The greenhouse effect traps infrared radiation in the atmosphere, thereby increasing surface temperature. It is one of many factors that affect a world's climate. (Others include solar luminosity and the atmospheric scattering and absorption of solar radiation.) A change in these factors — defined as climate forcing — may change the climate in a way that brings other processes — defined as feedbacks — into play. For example, when Earth's atmospheric carbon dioxide increases, warming the surface, the water vapor content of the atmosphere increases. This is a positive feedback on global warming because water vapor is itself a potent greenhouse gas. Many positive and negative feedback processes are significant in determining Earth's climate, and probably the climates of our terrestrial neighbors.

  18. Climatic Signals in Tree Rings of Heritiera fomes Buch.-Ham. in the Sundarbans, Bangladesh

    PubMed Central

    Chowdhury, Md. Qumruzzaman; De Ridder, Maaike; Beeckman, Hans

    2016-01-01

    Mangroves occur along the coastlines throughout the tropics and sub-tropics, supporting a wide variety of resources and services. In order to understand the responses of future climate change on this ecosystem, we need to know how mangrove species have responded to climate changes in the recent past. This study aims at exploring the climatic influences on the radial growth of Heritiera fomes from a local to global scale. A total of 40 stem discs were collected at breast height position from two different zones with contrasting salinity in the Sundarbans, Bangladesh. All specimens showed distinct tree rings and most of the trees (70%) could be visually and statistically crossdated. Successful crossdating enabled the development of two zone-specific chronologies. The mean radial increment was significantly higher at low salinity (eastern) zone compared to higher salinity (western) zone. The two zone-specific chronologies synchronized significantly, allowing for the construction of a regional chronology. The annual and monsoon precipitation mainly influence the tree growth of H. fomes. The growth response to local precipitation is similar in both zones except June and November in the western zone, while the significant influence is lacking. The large-scale climatic drivers such as sea surface temperature (SST) of equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean as well as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) revealed no teleconnection with tree growth. The tree rings of this species are thus an indicator for monsoon precipitation variations in Bangladesh. The wider distribution of this species from the South to South East Asian coast presents an outstanding opportunity for developing a large-scale tree-ring network of mangroves. PMID:26927229

  19. Enhancing a Remote-Sensing Method for Soil Moisture by Accounting for Regional Soil, Vegetation, and Climatic Characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sahaar, A. S.; Niemann, J. D.

    2016-12-01

    Accurate knowledge of root-zone soil moisture is critical for understanding the perpetuation of droughts and managing agricultural water systems. A remote-sensing method based on optical and thermal satellite imagery has been previously proposed to estimate fine-resolution (30 m) root-zone soil moisture over large regions. This method uses Landsat imagery to calculate all the components of the surface energy balance and then calculates the evaporative fraction (Λ) as the ratio of the latent heat flux to the sum of the sensible and latent heat fluxes. Root-zone soil moisture (θ) is then estimated from an empirical relationship with Λ. A similar approach has also been proposed to estimate the degree of saturation. Previous testing of this method for a semiarid region of southeastern Colorado has shown that a single relationship between θ and Λ does not apply universally. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of regional soil, vegetation, and climatic conditions on the form and strength of the Λ- θ relationship. To accomplish this goal, a global sensitivity analysis is performed using the Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) and a physically-based model (Hydrus-1D) that simulates both the land-surface energy balance and soil moisture dynamics. The modeling results show that, within a given climatic region, soil characteristics are very important in determining the shape of the Λ-θ relationship, while vegetation characteristics have the largest effect on the strength of the relationship. The modeling results also indicate that the annual average rainfall, which helps determine the climatic region, has a strong effect on both the form and strength of the relationship. From this analysis, the constants that define the Λ-θ relationships are estimated using regional characteristics. This approach allows the remote-sensing method to be adapted to local conditions and has the potential to greatly improve its performance.

  20. Modeling the Effects of Hydrogeomorphology and Climactic Factors on Nitrogen, Phosphorus, and Greenhouse Gas Dynamics in Riparian Zones.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hassanzadeh, Y.; Vidon, P.; Gold, A.; Pradhanang, S. M.; Addy, K.

    2017-12-01

    Vegetated riparian zones are often considered for use as best management practices to mitigate the impacts of agriculture on water quality. However, riparian zones can also be a source of greenhouse gases and their influence on water quality varies depending on landscape hydrogeomorphic characteristics and climate. Methods used to evaluate riparian zone functions include conceptual models, and spatially explicit and process based models (REMM), but very few attempts have been made to connect riparian zone characteristics with function using easily accessible landscape scale data. Here, we present comprehensive statistical models that can be used to assess riparian zone functions with easily obtainable landscape-scale hydrogeomorphic attributes and climate data. Models were developed from a database spanning 88 years and 36 sites. Statistical methods including principal component analysis and stepwise regression were used to reduced data dimensionality and identify significant predictors. Models were validated using additional data collected from scientific literature. The 8 models developed connect landscape characteristics to nitrogen and phosphorus concentration and removal (1-4), greenhouse gas emissions (5-7), and water table depth (8). Results show the range of influence that various climate and landscape characteristics have on riparian zone functions, and the tradeoffs that exist with regards to nitrogen, phosphorous, and greenhouse gases. These models will help reduce the need for extensive field measurements and help scientists and land managers make more informed decisions regarding the use of riparian zones for water quality management.

  1. Hydrogen Sulfide Emissions from Sow Farm Lagoons across Climates Zones.

    PubMed

    Grant, Richard H; Boehm, Matthew T; Lawrence, Alfred J; Heber, Albert J

    2013-11-01

    Hydrogen sulfide (HS) emissions were measured periodically over the course of 2 yr at three sow waste lagoons representing humid mesothermal (North Carolina, NC), humid microthermal (Indiana, IN), and semiarid (Oklahoma, OK) climates. Emissions were determined using a backward Lagrangian stochastic model in conjunction with line-sampled HS concentrations and measured turbulence. The median annual sow-specific (area-specific) lagoon emissions at the OK farm were approximately 1.6 g head [hd] d (5880 µg m s), whereas those at the IN and NC sow farms were 0.035 g hd d (130 µg m s), and 0.041 g hd d (260 µg m s), respectively. Hydrogen sulfide emissions generally increased with wind speed. The daily HS emissions from the OK lagoon were greatest during the first half of the year and decreased as the year progressed. Emissions were episodic at the NC and IN lagoons. The generally low emissions at the NC and IN lagoons were probably a result of significant populations of purple sulfur bacteria maintained in the humid mesothermal and humid microthermal climates. Most of the large HS emission events at the NC and IN lagoons appeared to be a result of either precipitation events or liquid pump-out events. The high emissions at the OK lagoon in a semiarid climate were largely a result of high wind speeds enhancing both lagoon and air boundary layer mixing. The climate (air temperature, winds, and precipitation) appeared to influence the HS emissions from lagoons. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  2. Assessing the Chemistry of Tidally Locked Earth-like Planets around M-type Stars Using a 3D Coupled Chemistry-Climate Model (CESM/WACCM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lanzano, Alexander

    2016-10-01

    Given recent discoveries there is a very real potential for tidally-locked Earth-like planets to exist orbiting M stars. To determine whether these planets may be habitable it is necessary to understand the nature of their atmospheres. In our investigation we simulate the evolution of present-day Earth while placed in tidally-locked orbit (meaning the same side of the planet always faces the star) around an M dwarf star. We are particularly interested in the evolution of the planet's ozone layer and whether it will shield the planet, and therefore life, from harmful radiation.To accomplish the above objectives we use a state-of-the-art 3-D terrestrial model, the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), which fully couples chemistry and climate, and therefore allows self-consistent simulations of atmospheric constituents and their effects on a planet's climate, surface radiation and thus habitability. Preliminary results show that this model is stable and that a tidally-locked Earth is protected from harmful UV radiation produced by G stars. The next step shall be to adapt this model for an M star by including its UV and visible spectrum.This investigation will both provide an insight into the potential for habitable exoplanets and further define the nature of the habitable zones for M class stars. We will also be able to narrow the definition of the habitable zones around distant stars, which will help us identify these planets in the future. Furthermore, this project will allow for a more thorough analysis of data from past and future exoplanet observing missions by defining the atmospheric composition of Earth-like planets around a variety of types of stars.

  3. [Constructing climate. From classical climatology to modern climate research].

    PubMed

    Heymann, Matthias

    2009-01-01

    Both climate researchers and historians of climate science have conceived climate as a stable and well defined category. This article argues that such a conception is flawed. In the course of the 19th and 20th century the very concept of climate changed considerably. Scientists came up with different definitions and concepts of climate, which implied different understandings, interests, and research approaches. Understanding climate shifted from a timeless, spatial concept at the end of the 19th century to a spaceless, temporal concept at the end of the 20th. Climatologists in the 19th and early 20th centuries considered climate as a set of atmospheric characteristics associated with specific places or regions. In this context, while the weather was subject to change, climate remained largely stable. Of particular interest was the impact of climate on human beings and the environment. In modern climate research at the close of the 20th century, the concept of climate lost its temporal stability. Instead, climate change has become a core feature of the understanding of climate and a focus of research interests. Climate has also lost its immediate association with specific geographical places and become global. The interest is now focused on the impact of human beings on climate. The paper attempts to investigate these conceptual shifts and their origins and impacts in order to provide a more comprehensive perspective on the history of climate research.

  4. Relating adaptive genetic traits to climate for Sandberg bluegrass from the intermountain western United States.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Richard C; Horning, Matthew E; Espeland, Erin K; Vance-Borland, Ken

    2015-02-01

    Genetic variation for potentially adaptive traits of the key restoration species Sandberg bluegrass (Poa secunda J. Presl) was assessed over the intermountain western United States in relation to source population climate. Common gardens were established at two intermountain west sites with progeny from two maternal parents from each of 130 wild populations. Data were collected over 2 years at each site on fifteen plant traits associated with production, phenology, and morphology. Analyses of variance revealed strong population differences for all plant traits (P < 0.0001), indicating genetic variation. Both the canonical correlation and linear correlation established associations between source populations and climate variability. Populations from warmer, more arid climates had generally lower dry weight, earlier phenology, and smaller, narrower leaves than those from cooler, moister climates. The first three canonical variates were regressed with climate variables resulting in significant models (P < 0.0001) used to map 12 seed zones. Of the 700 981 km(2) mapped, four seed zones represented 92% of the area in typically semi-arid and arid regions. The association of genetic variation with source climates in the intermountain west suggested climate driven natural selection and evolution. We recommend seed transfer zones and population movement guidelines to enhance adaptation and diversity for large-scale restoration projects.

  5. 78 FR 18238 - Safety Zone; SFPD Training Safety Zone; San Francisco Bay, San Francisco, CA

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-03-26

    ... operations that require freedom of movement in a defined area. The safety zone is necessary to provide for... exercise. This restricted area is necessary to provide freedom of movement for law enforcement officers... message can be received without jeopardizing the safety or security of people, places or vessels. 7...

  6. Volumetric flame synthesis of well-defined molybdenum oxide nanocrystals.

    PubMed

    Merchan-Merchan, Wilson; Saveliev, Alexei V; Desai, Milind

    2009-11-25

    Well-defined faceted inorganic Mo oxide nanocrystals are synthesized in the gas phase using a solid-fed-precursor flame synthesis method. The solid crystals have rectangular cross-section with characteristic size of 10-20 nm and with lengths ranging from 50 nm to a few hundred nanometres. A 1 mm diameter high purity Mo probe introduced in the oxygen-rich part of the flame serves as the material source. A combination of the strong temperature gradient and varying chemical species concentrations within the flame volume provides the ideal conditions for the rapid and direct formation of these unique nanocrystals. Oxidation and evaporation of MoO3 in the oxygen-rich zone are followed by reduction to MoO2 in the lower temperature, more fuel-rich zone. The MoO3 vapours formed are pushed in the direction of the gas flow and transformed into mature well-defined convex polyhedron nanocrystals bounded with six faces resembling rectangular parallelepipeds.

  7. Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging Networks Induced by Intracranial Stimulation May Help Defining the Epileptogenic Zone

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Myron; Avitsian, Rafi; Bhattacharyya, Pallab; Bulacio, Juan; Cendes, Fernando; Enatsu, Rei; Lowe, Mark; Najm, Imad; Nair, Dileep; Phillips, Michael; Gonzalez-Martinez, Jorge

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Patients with medically intractable epilepsy often undergo invasive evaluation and surgery, with a 50% success rate. The low success rate is likely due to poor identification of the epileptogenic zone (EZ), the brain area causing seizures. This work introduces a new method using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) with simultaneous direct electrical stimulation of the brain that could help localize the EZ, performed in five patients with medically intractable epilepsy undergoing invasive evaluation with intracranial depth electrodes. Stimulation occurred in a location near the hypothesized EZ and a location away. Electrical recordings in response to stimulation were recorded and compared to fMRI. Multiple stimulation parameters were varied, like current and frequency. The brain areas showing fMRI response were compared with the areas resected and the success of surgery. Robust fMRI maps of activation networks were easily produced, which also showed a significant but weak positive correlation between quantitative measures of blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) activity and measures of electrical activity in response to direct electrical stimulation (mean correlation coefficient of 0.38 for all acquisitions that produced a strong BOLD response). For four patients with outcome data at 6 months, successful surgical outcome is consistent with the resection of brain areas containing high local fMRI activity. In conclusion, this method demonstrates the feasibility of simultaneous direct electrical stimulation and fMRI in humans, which allows the study of brain connectivity with high resolution and full spatial coverage. This innovative technique could be used to better define the localization and extension of the EZ in intractable epilepsies, as well as for other functional neurosurgical procedures. PMID:24735069

  8. Adaptive forest management for drinking water protection under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koeck, R.; Hochbichler, E.

    2012-04-01

    resources. Forest stands which are formed by a tree species set which conforms to the potential natural forest community are more stable than the currently wide-spread mono-species Norway spruce plantations, especially in times of climate change, where e.g. bark beetle infestations threat spruce with increased intensity. FoHyM also provides the relevant ecological boundary conditions for any estimation of climate change adaptations. The adaptation of the tree species distribution within each forest hydrotope to climate change conditions was fulfilled by the integration of climate change scenarios and the estimation of the eco-physiological characteristics of related tree species. Hence it was possible to define the tree species distribution related to a specific climate change scenario for each forest hydrotope. The silvicultural concepts and measures to accomplish the defined tree species distribution and forest stand structure for each forest hydrotope were defined and elaborated by taking the specific requirements of drinking water protection areas into account, what e.g. comprised the prohibition of the clear cut technique and the application of continuous cover forest management concepts. The overall purpose of these adaptive silvicultural concepts and techniques which were based on the application of FoHyM was the improvement of the water protection functionality of forest stands within drinking water protection zones.

  9. Climate Change in an IB PYP Classroom

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    da Costa, Ana

    2014-05-01

    Students in elementary school are inherently curious, which allows them to explore, experiment and investigate various themes, while also demonstrating the will to preserve the resources that surround them and take action to contribute to a better world. One of the units taught at International School Carinthia is "climate change" and its impacts on life on Earth. During this unit, grade 4 students conduct research to answer their own inquiries related to this topic. They investigate the different climate zones on our planet, examine why climate change happens, and discover how global warming and climate change are connected and its consequences on living beings.

  10. Physical Processes Controlling Earth's Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Genio, Anthony Del

    2013-01-01

    As background for consideration of the climates of the other terrestrial planets in our solar system and the potential habitability of rocky exoplanets, we discuss the basic physics that controls the Earths present climate, with particular emphasis on the energy and water cycles. We define several dimensionless parameters relevant to characterizing a planets general circulation, climate and hydrological cycle. We also consider issues associated with the use of past climate variations as indicators of future anthropogenically forced climate change, and recent advances in understanding projections of future climate that might have implications for Earth-like exoplanets.

  11. India's National Action Plan on Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Pandve, Harshal T

    2009-04-01

    Climate change is one of the most critical global challenges of our times. Recent events have emphatically demonstrated our growing vulnerability to climate change. Climate change impacts will range from affecting agriculture - further endangering food security - to sea-level rise and the accelerated erosion of coastal zones, increasing intensity of natural disasters, species extinction, and the spread of vector-borne diseases. India released its much-awaited National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) to mitigate and adapt to climate change on June 30, 2008, almost a year after it was announced. The NAPCC runs through 2017 and directs ministries to submit detailed implementation plans to the Prime Minister's Council on Climate Change by December 2008. This article briefly reviews the plan and opinion about it from different experts and organizations.

  12. Critical oxygen levels and metabolic suppression in oceanic oxygen minimum zones.

    PubMed

    Seibel, Brad A

    2011-01-15

    The survival of oceanic organisms in oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) depends on their total oxygen demand and the capacities for oxygen extraction and transport, anaerobic ATP production and metabolic suppression. Anaerobic metabolism and metabolic suppression are required for daytime forays into the most extreme OMZs. Critical oxygen partial pressures are, within a range, evolved to match the minimum oxygen level to which a species is exposed. This fact demands that low oxygen habitats be defined by the biological response to low oxygen rather than by some arbitrary oxygen concentration. A broad comparative analysis of oxygen tolerance facilitates the identification of two oxygen thresholds that may prove useful for policy makers as OMZs expand due to climate change. Between these thresholds, specific physiological adaptations to low oxygen are required of virtually all species. The lower threshold represents a limit to evolved oxygen extraction capacity. Climate change that pushes oxygen concentrations below the lower threshold (~0.8 kPa) will certainly result in a transition from an ecosystem dominated by a diverse midwater fauna to one dominated by diel migrant biota that must return to surface waters at night. Animal physiology and, in particular, the response of animals to expanding hypoxia, is a critical, but understudied, component of biogeochemical cycles and oceanic ecology. Here, I discuss the definition of hypoxia and critical oxygen levels, review adaptations of animals to OMZs and discuss the capacity for, and prevalence of, metabolic suppression as a response to temporary residence in OMZs and the possible consequences of climate change on OMZ ecology.

  13. Examining the recent climate through the lens of ecology: inferences from temporal pattern analysis.

    Treesearch

    Paul F. Hessburg; Ellen E. Kuhlmann; Thomas W. Swetnam

    2005-01-01

    Ecological theory asserts that the climate of a region exerts top-down controls on regional ecosystem patterns and processes, across space and time. To provide empirical evidence of climatic controls, it would be helpful to define climatic regions that minimized variance in key climate attributes, within climatic regions-define the periods and features of climatic...

  14. Oceanographic and biological effects of shoaling of the oxygen minimum zone.

    PubMed

    Gilly, William F; Beman, J Michael; Litvin, Steven Y; Robison, Bruce H

    2013-01-01

    Long-term declines in oxygen concentrations are evident throughout much of the ocean interior and are particularly acute in midwater oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). These regions are defined by extremely low oxygen concentrations (<20-45 μmol kg(-1)), cover wide expanses of the ocean, and are associated with productive oceanic and coastal regions. OMZs have expanded over the past 50 years, and this expansion is predicted to continue as the climate warms worldwide. Shoaling of the upper boundaries of the OMZs accompanies OMZ expansion, and decreased oxygen at shallower depths can affect all marine organisms through multiple direct and indirect mechanisms. Effects include altered microbial processes that produce and consume key nutrients and gases, changes in predator-prey dynamics, and shifts in the abundance and accessibility of commercially fished species. Although many species will be negatively affected by these effects, others may expand their range or exploit new niches. OMZ shoaling is thus likely to have major and far-reaching consequences.

  15. Influence of the Amlia fracture zone on the evolution of the Aleutian Terrace forearc basin, central Aleutian subduction zone

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ryan, Holly F.; Draut, Amy E.; Keranen, Katie M.; Scholl, David W.

    2012-01-01

    During Pliocene to Quaternary time, the central Aleutian forearc basin evolved in response to a combination of tectonic and climatic factors. Initially, along-trench transport of sediment and accretion of a frontal prism created the accommodation space to allow forearc basin deposition. Transport of sufficient sediment to overtop the bathymetrically high Amlia fracture zone and reach the central Aleutian arc began with glaciation of continental Alaska in the Pliocene. As the obliquely subducting Amlia fracture zone swept along the central Aleutian arc, it further affected the structural evolution of the forearc basins. The subduction of the Amlia fracture zone resulted in basin inversion and loss of accommodation space east of the migrating fracture zone. Conversely, west of Amlia fracture zone, accommodation space increased arcward of a large outer-arc high that formed, in part, by a thickening of arc basement. This difference in deformation is interpreted to be the result of a variation in interplate coupling across the Amlia fracture zone that was facilitated by increasing subduction obliquity, a change in orientation of the subducting Amlia fracture zone, and late Quaternary intensification of glaciation. The change in coupling is manifested by a possible tear in the subducting slab along the Amlia fracture zone. Differences in coupling across the Amlia fracture zone have important implications for the location of maximum slip during future great earthquakes. In addition, shaking during a great earthquake could trigger large mass failures of the summit platform, as evidenced by the presence of thick mass transport deposits of primarily Quaternary age that are found in the forearc basin west of the Amlia fracture zone.

  16. Characteristics and source apportionment of organic matter in PM(2.5) from cities in different climatic zones of China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Jialiang

    For the first time, the dependency of the characteristics of organic matter in PM2.5 on geographical and climatic zones in three metropolitan cities of China was studied. Seasonal samples were collected at suburban and urban sites in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou in 2002 and 2003. To further support the above study, seasonal samples were also collected at Changdao Island, a remote island, in Bohai Sea/Yellow Sea. Concentrations of organic carbon (OC), elemental carbon (EC), water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC), and solvent-extractable organic compounds (SEOC) were analyzed. The characteristics of the n-alkanes, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, n-fatty acids, n-alkanols and molecular markers such as triterpanes were determined and used for source identification. Source apportionment was complemented by Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) modeling using the measured organic species as tracers. The impact of wind speed and wind direction on air quality was studied by back trajectory calculations and analysis. In general, traffic emissions were the largest contributors of OC followed by coal burning, kitchen emissions, vegetative detritus and biomass burning. However, in the space-heating season in Northern China, coal burning was the most important contributor of OC in the suburban areas of Beijing and at Changdao. Beijing had the highest concentration of organic aerosol followed by Guangzhou and Shanghai, while seasonal variation was in reverse order. Dispersion conditions determined by local topographies and meteorology were responsible for this trend. Contrary to common understanding, pollutant concentrations at the suburban sites were higher than the urban sites in all three cities. The main reason was the rapid urbanization of the suburban areas in the immediate vicinity of urban centers since China opened up for economic development, in addition, large numbers of manufacturing plants were relocated from the cities to the countryside in an attempt to clean up the urban

  17. Impact of climate changes during the last 5 million years on groundwater in basement aquifers.

    PubMed

    Aquilina, Luc; Vergnaud-Ayraud, Virginie; Les Landes, Antoine Armandine; Pauwels, Hélène; Davy, Philippe; Pételet-Giraud, Emmanuelle; Labasque, Thierry; Roques, Clément; Chatton, Eliot; Bour, Olivier; Ben Maamar, Sarah; Dufresne, Alexis; Khaska, Mahmoud; Le Gal La Salle, Corinne; Barbecot, Florent

    2015-09-22

    Climate change is thought to have major effects on groundwater resources. There is however a limited knowledge of the impacts of past climate changes such as warm or glacial periods on groundwater although marine or glacial fluids may have circulated in basements during these periods. Geochemical investigations of groundwater at shallow depth (80-400 m) in the Armorican basement (western France) revealed three major phases of evolution: (1) Mio-Pliocene transgressions led to marine water introduction in the whole rock porosity through density and then diffusion processes, (2) intensive and rapid recharge after the glacial maximum down to several hundred meters depths, (3) a present-day regime of groundwater circulation limited to shallow depth. This work identifies important constraints regarding the mechanisms responsible for both marine and glacial fluid migrations and their preservation within a basement. It defines the first clear time scales of these processes and thus provides a unique case for understanding the effects of climate changes on hydrogeology in basements. It reveals that glacial water is supplied in significant amounts to deep aquifers even in permafrosted zones. It also emphasizes the vulnerability of modern groundwater hydrosystems to climate change as groundwater active aquifers is restricted to shallow depths.

  18. Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on (Marine) Animals: Physiological Underpinnings and Evolutionary Consequences.

    PubMed

    Pörtner, Hans O; Gutt, Julian

    2016-07-01

    Understanding thermal ranges and limits of organisms becomes important in light of climate change and observed effects on ecosystems as reported by the IPCC (2014). Evolutionary adaptation to temperature is presently unable to keep animals and other organisms in place; if they can these rather follow the moving isotherms. These effects of climate change on aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems have brought into focus the mechanisms by which temperature and its oscillations shape the biogeography and survival of species. For animals, the integrative concept of oxygen and capacity limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT) has successfully characterized the sublethal limits to performance and the consequences of such limits for ecosystems. Recent models illustrate how routine energy demand defines the realized niche. Steady state temperature-dependent performance profiles thus trace the thermal window and indicate a key role for aerobic metabolism, and the resulting budget of available energy (power), in defining performance under routine conditions, from growth to exercise and reproduction. Differences in the performance and productivity of marine species across latitudes relate to changes in mitochondrial density, capacity, and other features of cellular design. Comparative studies indicate how and why such mechanisms underpinning OCLTT may have developed on evolutionary timescales in different climatic zones and contributed to shaping the functional characteristics and species richness of the respective fauna. A cause-and-effect understanding emerges from considering the relationships between fluctuations in body temperature, cellular design, and performance. Such principles may also have been involved in shaping the functional characteristics of survivors in mass extinction events during earth's history; furthermore, they may provide access to understanding the evolution of endothermy in mammals and birds. Accordingly, an understanding is emerging how climate changes and

  19. [Carbon source metabolic diversity of soil microbial community under different climate types in the area affected by Wenchuan earthquake].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Guang-Shuai; Lin, Yong-Ming; Ma, Rui-Feng; Deng, Hao-Jun; Du, Kun; Wu, Cheng-Zhen; Hong, Wei

    2015-02-01

    The MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 led to huge damage to land covers in northwest Sichuan, one of the critical fragile eco-regions in China which can be divided into Semi-arid dry hot climate zone (SDHC) and Subtropical humid monsoon climate zone (SHMC). Using the method of Bilog-ECO-microplate technique, this paper aimed to determine the functional diversity of soil microbial community in the earthquake-affected areas which can be divided into undamaged area (U), recover area (R) and damaged area without recovery (D) under different climate types, in order to provide scientific basis for ecological recovery. The results indicated that the average-well-color-development (AWCD) in undamaged area and recovery area showed SDHC > SHMC, which was contrary to the AWCD in the damaged area without recovery. The AWCD of damaged area without recovery was the lowest in both climate zones. The number of carbon source utilization types of soil microbial in SHMC zone was significantly higher than that in SDHC zone. The carbon source utilization types in both climate zones presented a trend of recover area > undamaged area > damaged area without recovery. The carbon source metabolic diversity characteristic of soil microbial community was significantly different in different climate zones. The diversity index and evenness index both showed a ranking of undamaged area > recover area > damaged area without recovery. In addition, the recovery area had the highest richness index. The soil microbial carbon sources metabolism characteristic was affected by soil nutrient, aboveground vegetation biomass and vegetation coverage to some extent. In conclusion, earthquake and its secondary disasters influenced the carbon source metabolic diversity characteristic of soil microbial community mainly through the change of aboveground vegetation and soil environmental factors.

  20. Assessment of flubendiamide residues in pigeon pea in different agro-climatic zones of India.

    PubMed

    Kale, V D; Walunj, A R; Battu, R S; Sahoo, Sanjay K; Singh, Balwinder; Paramasivam, M; Roy, Sankhajit; Banerjee, Tirthankar; Banerjee, Hemanta; Rao, Cherukuri Sreenivasa; Reddy, D Jagdishwar; Reddy, K Narasimha; Reddy, C Narendra; Tripathy, Vandana; Jaya, Maisnam; Pant, Shashi; Gupta, Monika; Singh, Geeta; Sharma, K K

    2012-07-01

    Supervised field trials were conducted at the research farms of four agricultural universities located at different agro-climatic zones of India to find out the harvest time residues of flubendiamide and its des-iodo metabolite on pigeon pea (Cajanus cajan) during the year 2006-2007. Two spray applications of flubendiamide 20 WDG at 50 g (T(1)) and 100 g (T(2)) a.i./ha were given to the crop at 15-days interval. The foliage samples at different time intervals were drawn at only one location, however, the harvest time samples of pigeon pea grain, shell, and straw were drawn at all the four locations. The residues were estimated by HPLC coupled with UV-VIS variable detector. No residues of flubendiamide and its des-iodo metabolite were found at harvest of the crop at or above the LOQ level of 0.05 μg/g. On the basis of the data generated, a pre-harvest interval (PHI) of 28 days has been recommended and the flubendiamide 20 WDG has been registered for use on pigeon pea by Central Insecticide Board and Registration Committee, Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India and the MRL has been fixed by Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India under Prevention of Food and Adulteration as 0.05 μg/g on pigeon pea grains.

  1. Lateral Knee Compartment Portals: A Cadaveric Study Defining a Posterolateral Viewing Safety Zone.

    PubMed

    Dilworth, Brian; Fehrenbacher, Victor; Nyland, John; Clark, Jamie; Greene, Joseph W

    2018-04-12

    This study attempted to define a reproducible "safe zone" based on extra- and intra-articular knee anatomy for placing one or 2 accessory portals in the lateral tibiofemoral compartment for posterolateral region viewing. Standard portals were created in 10 cadaveric knees to enable posterolateral region arthroscopic lateral tibiofemoral joint compartment viewing. After identifying the lateral knee surface tissue "soft spot," an accessory posterolateral portal (A) was created using an 18-gauge spinal needle and 4-mm cannula under direct visualization of a 70° arthroscope through the anteromedial portal. A second accessory portal (B) was then created 1 cm posterior and 1 cm superior to portal A. Accessory portal locations were measured relative to capsular fold and popliteus tendon locations. Distances from the peroneal nerve, lateral collateral ligament, popliteus tendon, and the biceps tendon were determined. Statistical analysis compared portal location differences from key anatomical structures (P < .05). Accessory portal A (mean ± 95% confidence interval) was located 8.8 ± 2.7 mm from the popliteus tendon, 11.6 ± 2.7 mm from the lateral collateral ligament (LCL), 26.8 ± 2.3 mm from the peroneal nerve, and 4.9 ± 2.5 mm from the biceps tendon. Accessory portal B was located 17.3 ± 2.8 mm from the popliteus tendon, 20 ± 2.8 mm from the LCL, 30.3 ± 3.3 mm from the peroneal nerve, and 7.0 ± 4.8 mm from the biceps tendon. Accessory portal B was located a greater distance from the LCL and the popliteus tendon than portal A (P < .0001). Using intra- and extra-articular anatomic landmarks, both accessory portals could be safely placed in the lateral tibiofemoral joint compartment to enable posterolateral region viewing. Accessory portals used individually or in combination may enable easier posterolateral region viewing for arthroscopic repair of lateral tibiofemoral compartment structures. Lateral tibiofemoral compartment portals can be safely

  2. Tradeoffs between Maize Silage Yield and Nitrate Leaching in a Mediterranean Nitrate-Vulnerable Zone under Current and Projected Climate Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Basso, Bruno; Giola, Pietro; Dumont, Benjamin; Migliorati, Massimiliano De Antoni; Cammarano, Davide; Pruneddu, Giovanni; Giunta, Francesco

    2016-01-01

    Future climatic changes may have profound impacts on cropping systems and affect the agronomic and environmental sustainability of current N management practices. The objectives of this work were to i) evaluate the ability of the SALUS crop model to reproduce experimental crop yield and soil nitrate dynamics results under different N fertilizer treatments in a farmer’s field, ii) use the SALUS model to estimate the impacts of different N fertilizer treatments on NO3- leaching under future climate scenarios generated by twenty nine different global circulation models, and iii) identify the management system that best minimizes NO3- leaching and maximizes yield under projected future climate conditions. A field experiment (maize-triticale rotation) was conducted in a nitrate vulnerable zone on the west coast of Sardinia, Italy to evaluate N management strategies that include urea fertilization (NMIN), conventional fertilization with dairy slurry and urea (CONV), and no fertilization (N0). An ensemble of 29 global circulation models (GCM) was used to simulate different climate scenarios for two Representative Circulation Pathways (RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) and evaluate potential nitrate leaching and biomass production in this region over the next 50 years. Data collected from two growing seasons showed that the SALUS model adequately simulated both nitrate leaching and crop yield, with a relative error that ranged between 0.4% and 13%. Nitrate losses under RCP8.5 were lower than under RCP6.0 only for NMIN. Accordingly, levels of plant N uptake, N use efficiency and biomass production were higher under RCP8.5 than RCP6.0. Simulations under both RCP scenarios indicated that the NMIN treatment demonstrated both the highest biomass production and NO3- losses. The newly proposed best management practice (BMP), developed from crop N uptake data, was identified as the optimal N fertilizer management practice since it minimized NO3- leaching and maximized biomass production over

  3. Climate Research Must Sharpen Its View

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marotzke, Jochem; Jakob, Christian; Bony, Sandrine; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; O'Gorman, Paul; Hawkins, Ed; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah; Le Quere, Corinne; Nowicki, Sophie; Paulavets, Katsia; hide

    2017-01-01

    Human activity is changing Earth's climate. Now that this has been acknowledged and accepted ininternational negotiations, climate research needs to define its next frontiers. The 2015 Paris agreement at COP21 has liberated climate research from discussing what is already known: the world is warming and humans are largely responsible. As society aims to limit further warming by reducing greenhouse-gas emissions, climate research must probe deeper into the unknown.

  4. A study of climate change and anthropogenic impacts in West Africa.

    PubMed

    Wittig, Rüdiger; König, Konstantin; Schmidt, Marco; Szarzynski, Jörg

    2007-05-01

    During the last decades ecological conditions in West Africa have dramatically changed. Very evident is the climate change, which has resulted in a southward shift of the climate zones, e.g. a spread of the desert (Sahara) into the Sahelian zone. After the drought period of the early 1970s and 1980s, livestock density increased resulting in an intensification of grazing pressure. This anthropogenous phenomenon leads to similar landscape changes as those caused by the climate. Only very few investigations exist on vegetation dynamics, climate changes and land use changes for the Sudanian zone. The paper presents data on changes of precipitation, of land use, of the geographical range of species, and of the composition of the flora, which have to be regarded as proofs of the sahelisation of large areas of the Sudanian zone. Area of investigation: Burkina Faso. Precipitation data analysis: precipitation data from 67 stations; time series analysis and geo-statistical spatial interpolation. Analysis of land use change: Landsat satellite MSS and ETM+ data, acquired for two different dates between 1972 and 2001 analyzed by the software ERDAS/IMAGINE version 8.6 and ArcView 3.2 with the Spatial Analyst extension. Intensive ground truthing (160 training areas). Inventory of the flora: based on the data of the Herbarium Senckenbergianum (FR) in Frankfurt, Germany, and of the herbarium of the university of Ouagadougou (OUA), Burkina Faso, as well as on various investigations on the vegetation of Burkina Faso carried out in the years 1990 to 2005 by the team of the senior author. Life form analysis of the flora: based on the inventory of permanent plots. Precipitation: Remarkable latitudinal shift of isohyets towards the South translates to a general reduction of average rainfall in great parts of the country. The last decade (1990-1999) shows some improvement, however, the more humid conditions of the 1950's and 1960's are not yet established again. Landcover change: In the

  5. Malaria surveillance-response strategies in different transmission zones of the People's Republic of China: preparing for climate change

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background A sound understanding of malaria transmission patterns in the People’s Republic of China (P.R. China) is crucial for designing effective surveillance-response strategies that can guide the national malaria elimination programme (NMEP). Using an established biology-driven model, it is expected that one may design and refine appropriate surveillance-response strategies for different transmission zones, which, in turn, assist the NMEP in the ongoing implementation period (2010–2020) and, potentially, in the post-elimination stage (2020–2050). Methods Environmental data obtained from 676 locations across P.R. China, such as monthly temperature and yearly relative humidity (YRH), for the period 1961–2000 were prepared. Smoothed surface maps of the number of months suitable for parasite survival derived from monthly mean temperature and YRH were generated. For each decade, the final malaria prediction map was overlaid by two masked maps, one showing the number of months suitable for parasite survival and the other the length of YRH map in excess of 60%. Results Considering multiple environmental factors simultaneously, the environmental variables suitable for malaria transmission were found to have shifted northwards, which was especially pronounced in northern P.R. China. The unstable suitable regions (transmission periods between five and six months) showed increased transmission intensity due to prolonged suitable periods, especially in the central part of the country. Conclusion Adequate and effective surveillance-response strategies for NMEP should be designed to achieve the goal of malaria elimination in P.R. China by 2020, especially in the zones predicted to be the most vulnerable for climate change. PMID:23256579

  6. Malaria surveillance-response strategies in different transmission zones of the People's Republic of China: preparing for climate change.

    PubMed

    Yang, Guo-Jing; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg; Malone, John B; Bergquist, Robert; Chan, Emily Y Y; Gao, Qi; Zhou, Xiao-Nong

    2012-12-21

    A sound understanding of malaria transmission patterns in the People's Republic of China (P.R. China) is crucial for designing effective surveillance-response strategies that can guide the national malaria elimination programme (NMEP). Using an established biology-driven model, it is expected that one may design and refine appropriate surveillance-response strategies for different transmission zones, which, in turn, assist the NMEP in the ongoing implementation period (2010-2020) and, potentially, in the post-elimination stage (2020-2050). Environmental data obtained from 676 locations across P.R. China, such as monthly temperature and yearly relative humidity (YRH), for the period 1961-2000 were prepared. Smoothed surface maps of the number of months suitable for parasite survival derived from monthly mean temperature and YRH were generated. For each decade, the final malaria prediction map was overlaid by two masked maps, one showing the number of months suitable for parasite survival and the other the length of YRH map in excess of 60%. Considering multiple environmental factors simultaneously, the environmental variables suitable for malaria transmission were found to have shifted northwards, which was especially pronounced in northern P.R. China. The unstable suitable regions (transmission periods between five and six months) showed increased transmission intensity due to prolonged suitable periods, especially in the central part of the country. Adequate and effective surveillance-response strategies for NMEP should be designed to achieve the goal of malaria elimination in P.R. China by 2020, especially in the zones predicted to be the most vulnerable for climate change.

  7. Outdoor human thermal perception in various climates: A comprehensive review of approaches, methods and quantification.

    PubMed

    Potchter, Oded; Cohen, Pninit; Lin, Tzu-Ping; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2018-08-01

    Over the past century, many research studies have been conducted in an attempt to define thermal conditions for humans in the outdoor environment and to grade thermal sensation. Consequently, a large number of indices have been proposed. The examination of human thermal indices by thermal subjective perception has become recently a methodical issue to confirm the accuracy, applicability and validation of human thermal indices. The aims of this study are: (a) to review studies containing both calculated human thermal conditions and subjective thermal perception in the outdoor environment (b) to identify the most used human thermal indices for evaluating human thermal perception (c) to examine the relation between human thermal comfort range and outdoor thermal environment conditions and (d) to compare between categories of thermal sensation in different climatic zones based on subjective perception and levels of thermal strain. A comprehensive literature review identified 110 peer-reviewed articles which investigated in-situ thermal conditions versus subjective thermal perception during 2001-2017. It seems that out of 165 human thermal indices that have been developed, only 4 (PET, PMV, UTCI, SET*) are widely in use for outdoor thermal perception studies. Examination of the relation between human thermal comfort range and outdoor thermal environment conditions for selective indices in different climatic zones shows that the range of the thermal comfort or dis-comfort is affected by the outdoor thermal environment. For the PET index, the "neutral" range for hot climates of 24-26°C is agreed by 95% of the studies where for cold climate, the "neutral" range of 15-20°C is agreed by 89% of the studies. For the UTCI, the "no thermal stress" category is common to all climates. The "no stress category" of 16-23°C is agreed by 80% of the case studies, while 100% of the case studies agreed that the range is between 18 and 23°C. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights

  8. 47 CFR 101.113 - Transmitter power limitations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... of harmful interference, the Commission may, after notice and opportunity for hearing, order a change... frequency band. (ii) The climate zones in Table 1 are defined for different geographic locations within the US as shown in Appendix 28 of the ITU Radio Regulations. Table 1 1 Climate zone e.i.r.p. Spectral...

  9. 47 CFR 101.113 - Transmitter power limitations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... of harmful interference, the Commission may, after notice and opportunity for hearing, order a change... frequency band. (ii) The climate zones in Table 1 are defined for different geographic locations within the US as shown in Appendix 28 of the ITU Radio Regulations. Table 1 1 Climate zone e.i.r.p. Spectral...

  10. 47 CFR 101.113 - Transmitter power limitations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... of harmful interference, the Commission may, after notice and opportunity for hearing, order a change... frequency band. (ii) The climate zones in Table 1 are defined for different geographic locations within the US as shown in Appendix 28 of the ITU Radio Regulations. Table 1 1 Climate zone e.i.r.p. Spectral...

  11. 47 CFR 101.113 - Transmitter power limitations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... of harmful interference, the Commission may, after notice and opportunity for hearing, order a change... frequency band. (ii) The climate zones in Table 1 are defined for different geographic locations within the US as shown in Appendix 28 of the ITU Radio Regulations. Table 1 1 Climate zone e.i.r.p. Spectral...

  12. Climate signals derived from cell anatomy of Scots pine in NE Germany.

    PubMed

    Liang, Wei; Heinrich, Ingo; Simard, Sonia; Helle, Gerhard; Liñán, Isabel Dorado; Heinken, Thilo

    2013-08-01

    Tree-ring chronologies of Pinus sylvestris L. from latitudinal and altitudinal limits of the species distribution have been widely used for climate reconstructions, but there are many sites within the temperate climate zone, as is the case in northeastern Germany, at which there is little evidence of a clear climate signal in the chronologies. In this study, we developed long chronologies of several cell structure variables (e.g., average lumen area and cell wall thickness) from P. sylvestris growing in northeastern Germany and investigated the influence of climate on ring widths and cell structure variables. We found significant correlations between cell structure variables and temperature, and between tree-ring width and relative humidity and vapor pressure, respectively, enabling the development of robust reconstructions from temperate sites that have not yet been realized. Moreover, it has been shown that it may not be necessary to detrend chronologies of cell structure variables and thus low-frequency climate signals may be retrieved from longer cell structure chronologies. The relatively extensive resource of archaeological material of P. sylvestris covering approximately the last millennium may now be useful for climate reconstructions in northeastern Germany and other sites in the temperate climate zone.

  13. Remote Sensing of Forest Cover in Boreal Zones of the Earth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sedykh, V. N.

    2011-12-01

    Ecological tension resulting from human activities generates a need for joint efforts of countries in the boreal zone aimed at sustainable forest development, including: conservation of forests binding carbon and ensuring stability of the atmosphere gas composition; preservation of purity and water content of forest areas as conditions ensuring sustainability of the historically formed structure of forest landscapes; and preservation of all flora and fauna species composition diversity as a condition for sustainable existence and functioning of forest ecosystems. We have to address these problems urgently due to climate warming which can interact with the forest cover. In particular, in the forest zone of Siberia, the climate aridization will inevitably result in periodic drying of shallow bogs and upland forests with thick forest litter. This will bring fires of unprecedented intensity which will lead to catastrophic atmospheric pollution. In this connection, the above problems can be solved only by the united efforts of boreal-zone countries, through establishing a uniform system for remote sensing of forests aimed at obtaining and periodic update of comprehensive information for rational decision-making in prevention of adverse human effect on the forest. A need to join efforts in this field of natural resource management is determined by disparate data which were created expressly for economic accounting units used mainly for the solution of economic timber resource problems. However, ecological tasks outlined above can be solved appropriately only by using uniform technologies that are registered within natural territorial complexes (landscapes) established throughout the entire boreal zone. Knowledge of forest state within natural territorial entities having specific physiographic conditions, with account for current and future anthropogenic load, allow one to define evidence-based forest growth potential at these landscapes to ensure development of

  14. Exploring objective climate classification for the Himalayan arc and adjacent regions using gridded data sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forsythe, N.; Blenkinsop, S.; Fowler, H. J.

    2015-05-01

    A three-step climate classification was applied to a spatial domain covering the Himalayan arc and adjacent plains regions using input data from four global meteorological reanalyses. Input variables were selected based on an understanding of the climatic drivers of regional water resource variability and crop yields. Principal component analysis (PCA) of those variables and k-means clustering on the PCA outputs revealed a reanalysis ensemble consensus for eight macro-climate zones. Spatial statistics of input variables for each zone revealed consistent, distinct climatologies. This climate classification approach has potential for enhancing assessment of climatic influences on water resources and food security as well as for characterising the skill and bias of gridded data sets, both meteorological reanalyses and climate models, for reproducing subregional climatologies. Through their spatial descriptors (area, geographic centroid, elevation mean range), climate classifications also provide metrics, beyond simple changes in individual variables, with which to assess the magnitude of projected climate change. Such sophisticated metrics are of particular interest for regions, including mountainous areas, where natural and anthropogenic systems are expected to be sensitive to incremental climate shifts.

  15. Incorporating climate change and morphological uncertainty into coastal change hazard assessments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Baron, Heather M.; Ruggiero, Peter; Wood, Nathan J.; Harris, Erica L.; Allan, Jonathan; Komar, Paul D.; Corcoran, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    Documented and forecasted trends in rising sea levels and changes in storminess patterns have the potential to increase the frequency, magnitude, and spatial extent of coastal change hazards. To develop realistic adaptation strategies, coastal planners need information about coastal change hazards that recognizes the dynamic temporal and spatial scales of beach morphology, the climate controls on coastal change hazards, and the uncertainties surrounding the drivers and impacts of climate change. We present a probabilistic approach for quantifying and mapping coastal change hazards that incorporates the uncertainty associated with both climate change and morphological variability. To demonstrate the approach, coastal change hazard zones of arbitrary confidence levels are developed for the Tillamook County (State of Oregon, USA) coastline using a suite of simple models and a range of possible climate futures related to wave climate, sea-level rise projections, and the frequency of major El Niño events. Extreme total water levels are more influenced by wave height variability, whereas the magnitude of erosion is more influenced by sea-level rise scenarios. Morphological variability has a stronger influence on the width of coastal hazard zones than the uncertainty associated with the range of climate change scenarios.

  16. 26 CFR 1.1394-1 - Enterprise zone facility bonds.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 1397C (relating to satisfaction of the rules for qualified zone property) do not apply prior to the initial testing date (as defined in paragraph (c)(4) of this section) if— (i) The issuer and the principal... the period of compliance required under this section. The per-employee fraction (as defined in...

  17. Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover.

    PubMed

    Alkama, Ramdane; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2016-02-05

    Changes in forest cover affect the local climate by modulating the land-atmosphere fluxes of energy and water. The magnitude of this biophysical effect is still debated in the scientific community and currently ignored in climate treaties. Here we present an observation-driven assessment of the climate impacts of recent forest losses and gains, based on Earth observations of global forest cover and land surface temperatures. Our results show that forest losses amplify the diurnal temperature variation and increase the mean and maximum air temperature, with the largest signal in arid zones, followed by temperate, tropical, and boreal zones. In the decade 2003-2012, variations of forest cover generated a mean biophysical warming on land corresponding to about 18% of the global biogeochemical signal due to CO2 emission from land-use change. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  18. On the added value of WUDAPT for Urban Climate Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brousse, Oscar; Martilli, Alberto; Mills, Gerald; Bechtel, Benjamin; Hammerberg, Kris; Demuzere, Matthias; Wouters, Hendrik; Van Lipzig, Nicole; Ren, Chao; Feddema, Johannes J.; Masson, Valéry; Ching, Jason

    2017-04-01

    Over half of the planet's population now live in cities and is expected to grow up to 65% by 2050 (United Nations, 2014), most of whom will actually occupy new emerging cities of the global South. Cities' impact on climate is known to be a key driver of environmental change (IPCC, 2014) and has been studied for decades now (Howard, 1875). Still very little is known about our cities' structure around the world, preventing urban climate simulations to be done and hence guidance to be provided for mitigation. Assessing the need to bridge the urban knowledge gap for urban climate modelling perspectives, the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tool - WUDAPT - project (Ching et al., 2015; Mills et al., 2015) developed an innovative technique to map cities globally rapidly and freely. The framework established by Bechtel and Daneke (2012) derives Local Climate Zones (Stewart and Oke, 2012) city maps out of LANDSAT 8 OLI-TIRS imagery (Bechtel et al., 2015) through a supervised classification by a Random Forest Classification algorithm (Breiman, 2001). The first attempt to implement Local Climate Zones (LCZ) out of the WUDAPT product within a major climate model was carried out by Brousse et al. (2016) over Madrid, Spain. This study proved the applicability of LCZs as an enhanced urban parameterization within the WRF model (Chen et al. 2011) employing the urban canopy model BEP-BEM (Martilli, 2002; Salamanca et al., 2010), using the averaged values of the morphological and physical parameters' ranges proposed by Stewart and Oke (2012). Other studies have now used the Local Climate Zones for urban climate modelling purposes (Alexander et al., 2016; Wouters et al. 2016; Hammerberg et al., 2017; Brousse et al., 2017) and demonstrated the added value of the WUDAPT dataset. As urban data accessibility is one of the major challenge for simulations in emerging countries, this presentation will show results of simulations using LCZs and the capacity of the WUDAPT framework to be

  19. 10 CFR 300.3 - Guidance for defining and naming the reporting entity.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Guidance for defining and naming the reporting entity. 300.3 Section 300.3 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE VOLUNTARY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING PROGRAM: GENERAL GUIDELINES § 300.3 Guidance for defining and naming the reporting entity. (a) A reporting...

  20. 10 CFR 300.3 - Guidance for defining and naming the reporting entity.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Guidance for defining and naming the reporting entity. 300.3 Section 300.3 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE VOLUNTARY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING PROGRAM: GENERAL GUIDELINES § 300.3 Guidance for defining and naming the reporting entity. (a) A reporting...

  1. 10 CFR 300.3 - Guidance for defining and naming the reporting entity.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Guidance for defining and naming the reporting entity. 300.3 Section 300.3 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE VOLUNTARY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING PROGRAM: GENERAL GUIDELINES § 300.3 Guidance for defining and naming the reporting entity. (a) A reporting...

  2. 10 CFR 300.3 - Guidance for defining and naming the reporting entity.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Guidance for defining and naming the reporting entity. 300.3 Section 300.3 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE VOLUNTARY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING PROGRAM: GENERAL GUIDELINES § 300.3 Guidance for defining and naming the reporting entity. (a) A reporting...

  3. 10 CFR 300.3 - Guidance for defining and naming the reporting entity.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Guidance for defining and naming the reporting entity. 300.3 Section 300.3 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE VOLUNTARY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING PROGRAM: GENERAL GUIDELINES § 300.3 Guidance for defining and naming the reporting entity. (a) A reporting...

  4. Evaluating water quality ecosystem services of wetlands under historic and future climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Records, R.; Arabi, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Duffy, W.; Ahmadi, M.; Hegewisch, K.

    2013-12-01

    Potential hydrologic effects of climate change have been assessed extensively; however, possible impacts of changing climate on in-stream water quality at the watershed scale have received little study. We assessed potential impacts of climate change on water quantity and quality in the mountainous Sprague River watershed, Oregon, USA, where high total phosphorus (TP) and sediment loads are associated with lake eutrophication and mortality of endangered fish species. Additionally, we analyzed water quality impacts of wetland and riparian zone loss and gain under present-day climate and future climate scenarios. We utilized the hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced with six distinct climate scenarios derived from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) General Circulation Models to assess magnitude and direction of trends in streamflow, sediment and TP fluxes in the mid-21st century (2030-2059). Model results showed little significant trend in average annual streamflow under most climate scenarios, but trends in annual and monthly streamflow, sediment, and TP fluxes were more pronounced and were generally increasing. Results also suggest that future loss of present-day wetlands and riparian zones under land use or climatic change could result in substantial increases in sediment and TP loads at the Sprague River outlet.

  5. The Dual Role of Vegetation as a Constraint on Mass and Energy Flux into the Critical Zone and as an Emergent Property of Geophysical Critical Zone Structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brooks, P. D.; Swetnam, T. L.; Barnard, H. R.; Singha, K.; Harpold, A.; Litvak, M. E.

    2017-12-01

    Spatial patterns in vegetation long have been used to scale both landsurface-atmosphere exchanges of water and carbon as well as to infer subsurface structure. These pursuits typical proceed in isolation and rarely do inferences gained from one community propagate to related efforts in another. Perhaps more importantly, vegetation often is treated as an emergent property of landscape-climate interactions rather than an active modifier of both critical zone structure and energy fluxes. We posit that vegetation structure and activity are under utilized as a tool towards understanding landscape evolution and present examples that begin to disentangle the role of vegetation as both an emergent property and an active control on critical zone structure and function. As climate change, population growth, and land use changes threaten water resources worldwide, the need for the new insights vegetation can provide becomes not just a basic science priority, but a pressing applied science question with clear societal importance. This presentation will provide an overview of recent efforts to address the dual role of vegetation in both modifying and reflecting critical zone structure in the western North American forests. For example, interactions between topography and stand scale vegetation structure influence both solar radiation and turbulence altering landscape scale partitioning of evaporation vs transpiration with major impacts of surface water supply. Similarly, interactions between topographic shading, lateral redistribution of plant available water, and subsurface storage create a mosaic of drought resistance and resilience across complex terrain. These complex interactions between geophysical and vegetation components of critical zone structure result in predictable patterns in catchment scale hydrologic partitioning within individual watersheds while simultaneously suggesting testable hypotheses for why catchments under similar climate regimes respond so

  6. Application of Remote Sensing to Assess the Impact of Short Term Climate Variability on Coastal Sedimentation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Menzel, W. Paul; Huh, Oscar K.; Walker, Nan

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this joint University of Wisconsin (UW) and Louisiana State University (LSU) project has been to relate short term climate variation to response in the coastal zone of Louisiana in an attempt to better understand how the coastal zone is shaped by climate variation. Climate variation in this case largely refers to variation in surface wind conditions that affect wave action and water currents in the coastal zone. The primary region of focus was the Atchafalaya Bay and surrounding bays in the central coastal region of Louisiana. Suspended solids in the water column show response to wind systems both in quantity (through resuspension) and in the pattern of dispersement or transport. Wind systems associated with cold fronts are influenced by short term climate variation. Wind energy was used as the primary signature of climate variation in this study because winds are a significant influence on sediment transport in the micro-tidal Gilf of Mexico coastal zone. Using case studies, the project has been able to investigate the influence of short term climate variation on sediment transport. Wind energy data, collected daily for National Weather Service (NWS) stations at Lake Charles and New Orleans, LA, were used as an indicator of short term climate variation influence on seasonal time scales. A goal was to relate wind energy to coastal impact through sediment transport. This goal was partially accomplished by combining remote sensing and wind energy data. Daily high resolution remote sensing observations are needed to monitor the complex coastal zone environment, where winds, tides, and water level all interact to influence sediment transport. The NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) era brings hope for documenting and revealing response of the complex coastal transport mosaic through regular high spatial resolution observations from the Moderate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) instrument. MODIS observations were sampled in this project for

  7. Climatology of the interior Columbia River basin.

    Treesearch

    Sue A. Ferguson

    1999-01-01

    This work describes climate means and trends in each of three major ecological zones and 13 ecological reporting units in the interior Columbia River basin. Widely differing climates help define each major zone and reporting unit, the pattern of which is controlled by three competing air masses: marine, continental, and arctic. Paleoclimatic evidence and historical...

  8. Modeling hyporheic zone processes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runkel, Robert L.; McKnight, Diane M.; Rajaram, Harihar

    2003-01-01

    Stream biogeochemistry is influenced by the physical and chemical processes that occur in the surrounding watershed. These processes include the mass loading of solutes from terrestrial and atmospheric sources, the physical transport of solutes within the watershed, and the transformation of solutes due to biogeochemical reactions. Research over the last two decades has identified the hyporheic zone as an important part of the stream system in which these processes occur. The hyporheic zone may be loosely defined as the porous areas of the stream bed and stream bank in which stream water mixes with shallow groundwater. Exchange of water and solutes between the stream proper and the hyporheic zone has many biogeochemical implications, due to differences in the chemical composition of surface and groundwater. For example, surface waters are typically oxidized environments with relatively high dissolved oxygen concentrations. In contrast, reducing conditions are often present in groundwater systems leading to low dissolved oxygen concentrations. Further, microbial oxidation of organic materials in groundwater leads to supersaturated concentrations of dissolved carbon dioxide relative to the atmosphere. Differences in surface and groundwater pH and temperature are also common. The hyporheic zone is therefore a mixing zone in which there are gradients in the concentrations of dissolved gasses, the concentrations of oxidized and reduced species, pH, and temperature. These gradients lead to biogeochemical reactions that ultimately affect stream water quality. Due to the complexity of these natural systems, modeling techniques are frequently employed to quantify process dynamics.

  9. 9 CFR 98.38 - Restrictions on the importation of swine semen from the APHIS-defined EU CSF region.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... competent veterinary authority of the APHIS-defined EU CSF region Member State. (b) The semen must not have... designation of the zone as a restricted zone is removed by the competent veterinary authority of the Member... restricted zone is removed by the competent veterinary authority of the Member State. (c) The semen must not...

  10. On Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference and Climate Change Risk (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mann, M. E.

    2009-12-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) commits signatory nations (which includes all major nations including the United States) to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at levels short of Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference (“ DAI”) with the climate. To properly define DAI, one must take into account issues that are not only scientific, but, economic, political, and ethical in nature. Defining DAI is furthermore complicated by the inter-generational and regionally-disaggregated nature of the risks associated with climate change. In this talk, I will explore the nature of anthropogenic climate change risks and the notion of DAI.

  11. Climate mitigation potential of the San Pedro River riparian zone

    Treesearch

    Dean A. Martens; Jean E. T. McLain

    2005-01-01

    Carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling within an open brush site, a sacaton (Sporobolus wrightii) grass and a mesquite (Prosopis velutina) grove, in the riparian zone was closely linked to the yearly litter N inputs. Yearly mesquite litter fall for 2 yr was remarkably similar and averaged 4.0 g N m-2 and 65 g C m...

  12. Global climate change impacts on coastal ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico: considerations for integrated coastal management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Day, John W.; Yáñez-Arancibia, Alejandro; Cowan, James H.; Day, Richard H.; Twilley, Robert R.; Rybczyk, John R.

    2013-01-01

    Global climate change is important in considerations of integrated coastal management in the Gulf of Mexico. This is true for a number of reasons. Climate in the Gulf spans the range from tropical to the lower part of the temperate zone. Thus, as climate warms, the tropical temperate interface, which is currently mostly offshore in the Gulf of Mexico, will increasingly move over the coastal zone of the northern and eastern parts of the Gulf. Currently, this interface is located in South Florida and around the US-Mexico border in the Texas-Tamaulipas region. Maintaining healthy coastal ecosystems is important because they will be more resistant to climate change.

  13. Pollen, vegetation, and climate relationships along the Dalton Highway, Alaska, USA: a basis for holocene paleoecological and paleoclimatic studies

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Short, S.K.; Andrews, J.T.; Webber, P.J.

    The Dalton Highway extends from Fairbanks, in the interior of Alaska, to Prudhoe Bay on the Arctic Coastal Plain. Over this 600-km transect, July temperatures vary from 17 to 5/sup 0/C. Studies of vegetation along the Dalton Highway identified nine major zones. During the vegetation survey moss polsters were collected within the survey quadrats. Two hundred and nineteen individual moss polsters document regional variations in the modern pollen spectra along this vegetation/climate transect. Treeline is distinguished by a change from dominance by spruce and shrub (especially alder) pollen to the south to herb and shrub (especially willow) pollen dominance tomore » the north; a shift from high modern pollen concentration values to very low values is also noted. Discriminant analysis indicated that the vegetation zones are also defined by different pollen assemblages, suggesting that former changes in vegetation during the Holocene, as recorded in peat deposits, could be interpreted from pollen diagrams. Transfer functions were developed to examine the statistical association between the modern pollen rain and several climatic parameters. The correlation between pollen taxa and mean July temperature was r = 0.84. The most important taxa in the equation are Picea, Alnus, Pinus, Sphagnum, and Betula. 59 references, 7 figures, 4 tables.« less

  14. Regeneration of native California oaks in the forest zone [Abstract

    Treesearch

    P.M. McDonald

    1999-01-01

    The two native California oaks in the forest zone of California are California black oak (Quercus kelloggii Newb.) and tanoak (Lithocarpus densiflorus [Hook. and Arn.] Rehd.). Both are ancient species with many adaptations to withstand California's Mediterranean climate, but some weaknesses as well. Both sprout vigorously...

  15. New climatic classification of Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karki, Ramchandra; Talchabhadel, Rocky; Aalto, Juha; Baidya, Saraju Kumar

    2016-08-01

    Although it is evident that Nepal has an extremely wide range of climates within a short latitudinal distance, there is a lack of comprehensive research in this field. The climatic zoning in a topographically complex country like Nepal has important implications for the selection of scientific station network design and climate model verification, as well as for studies examining the effects of climate change in terms of shifting climatic boundaries and vegetation in highly sensitive environments. This study presents a new high-resolution climate map of Nepal on the basis of long-term (1981-2010) monthly precipitation data for 240 stations and mean air temperature data for 74 stations, using original and modified Köppen-Geiger climate classification systems. Climatic variables used in Köppen-Geiger system were calculated (i) at each station and (ii) interpolated to 1-km spatial resolution using kriging which accounted for latitude, longitude, and elevation. The original Köppen-Geiger scheme could not identify all five types of climate (including tropical) observed in Nepal. Hence, the original scheme was slightly modified by changing the boundary of coldest month mean air temperature value from 18 °C to 14.5 °C in order to delineate the realistic climatic condition of Nepal. With this modification, all five types of climate (including tropical) were identified. The most common dominant type of climate for Nepal is temperate with dry winter and hot summer (Cwa).

  16. Climate conditions and drought assessment with the Palmer Drought Severity Index in Iran: evaluation of CORDEX South Asia climate projections (2070-2099)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Senatore, Alfonso; Hejabi, Somayeh; Mendicino, Giuseppe; Bazrafshan, Javad; Irannejad, Parviz

    2018-03-01

    Climate change projections were evaluated over both the whole Iran and six zones having different precipitation regimes considering the CORDEX South Asia dataset, for assessing space-time distribution of drought occurrences in the future period 2070-2099 under RCP4.5 scenario. Initially, the performances of eight available CORDEX South Asia Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were assessed for the baseline period 1970-2005 through the GPCC v.7 precipitation dataset and the CFSR temperature dataset, which were previously selected as the most reliable within a set of five global datasets compared to 41 available synoptic stations. Though the CCLM RCM driven by the MPI-ESM-LR General Circulation Model is in general the most suitable for temperature and, together with the REMO 2009 RCM also driven by MPI-ESM-LR, for precipitation, their performances do not overwhelm other models for every season and zone in which Iranian territory was divided according to a principal component analysis approach. Hence, a weighting approach was tested and adopted to take into account useful information from every RCM in each of the six zones. The models resulting more reliable compared to current climate show a strong precipitation decrease. Weighted average predicts an overall yearly precipitation decrease of about 20%. Temperature projections provide a mean annual increase of 2.4 °C. Future drought scenarios were depicted by means of the self-calibrating version of the Palmer drought severity index (SC-PDSI) model. Weighted average predicts a sharp drying that can be configured as a real shift in mean climate conditions, drastically affecting water resources of the country.

  17. The effect of climatic forcing on population synchrony and genetic structuring of the Canadian lynx

    PubMed Central

    Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Ehrich, Dorothee; Rueness, Eli Knispel; Lingjærde, Ole Chr.; Chan, Kung-Sik; Boutin, Stan; O'Donoghue, Mark; Robinson, David A.; Viljugrein, Hildegunn; Jakobsen, Kjetill S.

    2004-01-01

    The abundance of Canadian lynx follows 10-year density fluctuations across the Canadian subcontinent. These cyclic fluctuations have earlier been shown to be geographically structured into three climatic regions: the Atlantic, Continental, and Pacific zones. Recent genetic evidence revealed an essentially similar spatial structuring. Introducing a new population model, the “climate forcing of ecological and evolutionary patterns” model, we link the observed ecological and evolutionary patterns. Specifically, we demonstrate that there is greater phase synchrony within climatic zones than between them and show that external climatic forcing may act as a synchronizer. We simulated genetic drift by using data on population dynamics generated by the climate forcing of ecological and evolutionary patterns model, and we demonstrate that the observed genetic structuring can be seen as an emerging property of the spatiotemporal ecological dynamics. PMID:15067131

  18. The paleohydrology of unsaturated and saturated zones at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and vicinity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Paces, James B.; Whelan, Joseph F.; Stuckless, John S.

    2012-01-01

    Surface, unsaturated-zone, and saturated-zone hydrologic conditions at Yucca Mountain responded to past climate variations and are at least partly preserved by sediment, fossil, and mineral records. Characterizing past hydrologic conditions in surface and subsurface environments helps to constrain hydrologic responses expected under future climate conditions and improve predictions of repository performance. Furthermore, these records provide a better understanding of hydrologic processes that operate at time scales not readily measured by other means. Pleistocene climates in southern Nevada were predominantly wetter and colder than the current interglacial period. Cyclic episodes of aggradation and incision in Fortymile Wash, which drains the eastern slope of Yucca Mountain, are closely linked to Pleistocene climate cycles. Formation of pedogenic cement is favored under wetter Pleistocene climates, consistent with increased soil moisture and vegetation, higher chemical solubility, and greater evapotranspiration relative to Holocene soil conditions. The distribution and geochemistry of secondary minerals in subsurface fractures and cavities reflect unsaturated-zone hydrologic conditions and the response of the hydrogeologic system to changes in temperature and percolation flux over the last 12.8 m.y. Physical and fluid-inclusion evidence indicates that secondary calcite and opal formed in air-filled cavities from fluids percolating downward through connected fracture pathways in the unsaturated zone. Oxygen, strontium, and carbon isotope data from calcite are consistent with a descending meteoric water source but also indicate that water compositions and temperatures evolved through time. Geochronological data indicate that secondary mineral growth rates are less than 1–5 mm/m.y., and have remained approximately uniform over the last 10 m.y. or longer. These data are interpreted as evidence for hydrological stability despite large differences in surface moisture

  19. Development of climate risk services under climate change scenarios in the North Adriatic coast (Italy).

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valentina, Gallina; Silvia, Torresan; Anna, Sperotto; Elisa, Furlan; Andrea, Critto; Antonio, Marcomini

    2014-05-01

    Nowadays, the challenge for coastal stakeholders and decision makers is to incorporate climate change in land and policy planning in order to ensure a sustainable integrated coastal zone management aimed at preserve coastal environments and socio-economic activities. Consequently, an increasing amount of information on climate variability and its impact on human and natural ecosystem is requested. Climate risk services allows to bridge the gap between climate experts and decision makers communicating timely science-based information about impacts and risks related to climate change that could be incorporated into land planning, policy and practice. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), a participatory Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was applied for the evaluation of water-related hazards in coastal areas (i.e. pluvial flood and sea-level rise inundation risks) taking into consideration future climate change scenarios in the case study of the North Adriatic Sea for the period 2040-2050. Specifically, through the analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk and the application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), the RRA methodology allowed to identify and prioritize targets (i.e. residential and commercial-industrial areas, beaches, infrastructures, wetlands, agricultural typology) and sub-areas that are more likely to be affected by pluvial flood and sea-level rise impacts in the same region. From the early stages of the climate risk services development and application, the RRA followed a bottom-up approach taking into account the needs, knowledge and perspectives of local stakeholders dealing with the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM), by means of questionnaires, workshops and focus groups organized within the project. Specifically, stakeholders were asked to provide their needs in terms of time scenarios, geographical scale and resolution, choice of receptors, vulnerability factors and thresholds that were considered in the

  20. Miocene exhumation of the Indus-Yarlung Suture Zone in NW India: An insight into the controls of tectonics and climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhattacharya, G.; Robinson, D. M.; Orme, D. A.; Olree, E.; Bosu, S.

    2016-12-01

    Detritus from the India-Asia collision and subsequent Cenozoic tectonic events is preserved in sedimentary basins along the 2500 km long Indus-Yarlung Suture Zone (IYSZ) in India and Tibet. In northwest India, these Eocene-Miocene synorogenic sedimentary rocks are preserved in the Tar and Indus Groups. We use (U-Th)/He dating of detrital zircons from units within these sedimentary basins, including the Temesgam Formation at Temesgam, the Lower Nimu Formation and the Sumdo Formation in the Zanskar Gorge, and the Artsa Formation and the Miru Formation in the Upshi-Lato region. These analyses indicate a phase of rapid exhumation from 19-8 Ma. Possible explanations for these data include a combination of tectonic events and the influence of climate. Regional back-thrusting initiated at 20 Ma along the Great Counter Thrust, which buried the IYSZ footwall with the Lamayuru slope deposits of the Indian passive margin. In south Tibet, previous studies identify underthrusting of the Indian plate as a key factor for basin exhumation in the IYSZ, which may also be a driver in northwest India. The flow of the paleo-Indus river through the IYSZ in Early Miocene time might have been triggered by the onset of Asian monsoon at 24 Ma and its intensification between 18-10 Ma. Our data demonstrate a phase of rapid exhumation in northwest India from 19-8 Ma, which may be linked to all of these tectonic and climate influences. Data in this study are similar to the data of Carrapa et al. (2014) from south Tibet that show peak exhumation at 17 Ma, and suggest that a regional cooling episode, driven by tectonics and climate, might have prevailed in the Miocene along the IYSZ.

  1. Defining a "Zone of Impact": Transport Processes and Patterns for Small-Scale Land Runoff.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Largier, J. L.; Basdurak, B.

    2016-12-01

    Nearshore pollution is a well-recognized environmental problem, yet the pattern of this pollution is not well studied and it is little recognized in policy. Whether nutrients, pathogens or toxins, the highest concentrations of pollutants in the nearfield are controlled by transport and mixing, rather than decay of the constituent. Thus, this becomes a challenge to determine patterns of runoff (and tidal outflow) and to account for the dominant processes that control these patterns. Salinity and fecal indicator bacteria data exhibit coherent space-time patterns, indicating that a coherent "zone of impact" can be determined, i.e., a time-varying spatial zone in which the constituent of concern exceeds a reference concentration (level of concern). To explain field observations, modeling of small-scale runoff plumes and wave-driven transport can be used. In contrast to larger river plumes, wind forcing is a critical factor in plume behavior and the resultant pattern of pollution. This preliminary work suggests that coherent spatio-temporal patterns can explain the apparently not-so-well-behaved patterns of pollution that are reported when concentrations are under-sampled. And it throws out a challenge to nearshore oceanographers to better explain transport and mixing patterns for the benefit of reducing coastal pollution and its impacts.

  2. The Run-Up of Subduction Zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riquelme, S.; Bravo, F. J.; Fuentes, M.; Matias, M.; Medina, M.

    2016-12-01

    Large earthquakes in subduction zones are liable to produce tsunamis that can cause destruction and fatalities. The Run-up is a geophysical parameter that quantifies damage and if critical facilities or population are exposed to. Here we use the coupling for certain subduction regions measured by different techniques (Potency and GPS observations) to define areas where large earthquakes can occur. Taking the slab 1.0 from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), we can define the geometry of the area including its tsunamigenic potential. By using stochastic earthquakes sources for each area with its maximum tsunamigenic potential, we calculate the numerical and analytical run-up for each case. Then, we perform a statistical analysis and calculate the envelope for both methods. Furthermore, we build an index of risk using: the closest slope to the shore in a piecewise linear approach (last slopecriteria) and the outputsfrom tsunami modeling. Results show that there are areas prone to produce higher run-up than others based on the size of the earthquake, geometrical constraints of the source, tectonic setting and the coast last slope. Based on these results, there are zones that have low risk index which can define escape routes or secure coastal areas for tsunami early warning, urban and planning purposes when detailed data is available.

  3. Building America Case Study: Rehabilitation of USDA Multifamily Homes, Georgia (Climate Zones 2-4)

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Rea Ventures Group, LLC, (Rea Ventures) partnered with Southface Energy Institute (Southface) on the rehabilitation of 418 low-income rental multifamily apartments located at 14 different properties in Georgia (Climate Zones 2-4). These 22-year old, individually-metered units were arranged in rowhouse or townhouse style units. Rehabilitation plans were developed using a process prescribed by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Rural Development program, who partially funded the building upgrades. The USDA is responsible for building, upgrading, and subsidizing housing in rural areas nationwide. In 2012, over $100 million was allocated in grants and loans. Due to the unique financing mechanism asmore » well as long-term ownership requirements, property owners are especially motivated to invest in upgrades that will increase durability and tenant retention. These buildings represent a large stock of rural affordable housing that have the potential for significant energy and cost savings for property owners and tenants. Southface analyzed the energy upgrade potential of one stereotypical property in the Rea Ventures portfolio. This study will provide insight into the most cost-effective, implementable energy efficiency and durability upgrades for this age multifamily housing, having an enormous impact not only on the portfolio of Rea Ventures but on the vast USDA and larger Federal portfolio. Additionally, Southface will identify gaps in the current capital needs assessment process, examine available audit and simulation tools and protocols, and evaluate additional auditor training or certification needs.« less

  4. Arctic climate tipping points.

    PubMed

    Lenton, Timothy M

    2012-02-01

    There is widespread concern that anthropogenic global warming will trigger Arctic climate tipping points. The Arctic has a long history of natural, abrupt climate changes, which together with current observations and model projections, can help us to identify which parts of the Arctic climate system might pass future tipping points. Here the climate tipping points are defined, noting that not all of them involve bifurcations leading to irreversible change. Past abrupt climate changes in the Arctic are briefly reviewed. Then, the current behaviour of a range of Arctic systems is summarised. Looking ahead, a range of potential tipping phenomena are described. This leads to a revised and expanded list of potential Arctic climate tipping elements, whose likelihood is assessed, in terms of how much warming will be required to tip them. Finally, the available responses are considered, especially the prospects for avoiding Arctic climate tipping points.

  5. Assessing efficiency and economic viability of rainwater harvesting systems for meeting non-potable water demands in four climatic zones of China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, S.; Jing, X.

    2017-12-01

    Rainwater harvesting is now increasingly used to manage urban flood and alleviate water scarcity crisis. In this study, a computational tool based on water balance equation is developed to assess stormwater capture and water saving efficiency and economic viability of rainwater harvesting systems (RHS) in eight cities across four climatic zones of China. It requires daily rainfall, contributing area, runoff losses, first flush volume, storage capacity, daily water demand and economic parameters as inputs. Three non-potable water demand scenarios (i.e., toilet flushing, lawn irrigation, and combination of them) are considered. The water demand for lawn irrigation is estimated using the Cropwat 8.0 and Climwat 2.0. Results indicate that higher water saving efficiency and water supply time reliability can be achieved for RHS with larger storage capacities, for lower water demand scenarios and located in more humid regions, while higher stormwater capture efficiency is associated with larger storage capacity, higher water demand scenarios and less rainfall. For instance, a 40 m3 RHS in Shanghai (humid climate) for lawn irrigation can capture 17% of stormwater, while its water saving efficiency and time reliability can reach 96 % and 98%, respectively. The water saving efficiency and time reliability of a 20 m3 RHS in Xining (semi-arid climate) for toilet flushing are 19% and 16%, respectively, but it can capture 63% of stormwater. With the current values of economic parameters, economic viability of RHS can be achieved in humid and semi-humid regions for reasonably designed RHS; however, it is not financially viable to install RHS in arid regions as the benefit-cost ratio is much smaller than 1.0.

  6. Greek Children's Alternative Conceptions on Weather and Climate.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Spiropoulou, D.; Kostopoulos, D.; Jacovides, C. P.

    1999-01-01

    Describes a survey of Greek schoolchildren's alternative conceptions about weather and climate. Finds that misconceptions exist, including confusion between the meanings of the terms "weather" and "climate", inflated estimates of temperature, and a belief that yearly weather data define climate. Suggests ways to help students…

  7. Measuring Campus Climate for Personal and Social Responsibility

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ryder, Andrew J.; Mitchell, Joshua J.

    2013-01-01

    Understanding institutional climate enhances decision-making capacity when planning new programs and improving learning environments on college campuses. This chapter defines climate, discusses the purpose and advantages of climate assessment, and identifies important factors to consider in planning and conducting a personal and social…

  8. Foundational literature for moving native plant materials in changing climates

    Treesearch

    Mary I. Williams; Kas Dumroese; Jeremy Pinto; Martin F. Jurgensen

    2015-01-01

    Seed transfer guidelines and zones are used to manage the movement of plant materials, but by the end of the century many landscapes across the globe will have climates that are incompatible with current vegetation. The mismatch in rates between climate change and plant migration and adaptation will pose significant challenges for natural resource managers, especially...

  9. Gardens on the Arid Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eka Saputra, Weldy

    2017-12-01

    Bahrain is located in the climate of the arid zone which rainfall is low and irregular. This paper discusses the approaches which response to the local context that has been implemented by the government of Bahrain to sustain the quality of the public garden in the arid climate, turning to green. Generally, the approach is an improvement in the central treatment of waste water system plant that used to irrigate the landscaping, agriculture as well as for industry use. These approaches are not the only technologically, but also involves the participation of community to achieve sustainable garden in this country.

  10. Zoom in at African country level: potential climate induced changes in areas of suitability for survival of malaria vectors.

    PubMed

    Tonnang, Henri E Z; Tchouassi, David P; Juarez, Henry S; Igweta, Lilian K; Djouaka, Rousseau F

    2014-05-07

    Predicting anopheles vectors' population densities and boundary shifts is crucial in preparing for malaria risks and unanticipated outbreaks. Although shifts in the distribution and boundaries of the major malaria vectors (Anopheles gambiae s.s. and An. arabiensis) across Africa have been predicted, quantified areas of absolute change in zone of suitability for their survival have not been defined. In this study, we have quantified areas of absolute change conducive for the establishment and survival of these vectors, per African country, under two climate change scenarios and based on our findings, highlight practical measures for effective malaria control in the face of changing climatic patterns. We developed a model using CLIMEX simulation platform to estimate the potential geographical distribution and seasonal abundance of these malaria vectors in relation to climatic factors (temperature, rainfall and relative humidity). The model yielded an eco-climatic index (EI) describing the total favourable geographical locations for the species. The EI values were classified and exported to a GIS package. Using ArcGIS, the EI shape points were clipped to the extent of Africa and then converted to a raster layer using Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation method. Generated maps were then transformed into polygon-based geo-referenced data set and their areas computed and expressed in square kilometers (km(2)). Five classes of EI were derived indicating the level of survivorship of these malaria vectors. The proportion of areas increasing or decreasing in level of survival of these malaria vectors will be more pronounced in eastern and southern African countries than those in western Africa. Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, South Africa and Zambia appear most likely to be affected in terms of absolute change of malaria vectors suitability zones under the selected climate change scenarios. The potential shifts of these malaria vectors have

  11. Implant therapy in the esthetic zone: smile line assessment.

    PubMed

    Kourkouta, Stella

    2011-04-01

    Assessment of the smile or lip line is imperative when implant therapy is carried out in the esthetic zone. The smile is generally defined as high, average, or low. Females are reported to have higher lip lines than males, which means that they are at greater risk when placing and restoring implants in the esthetic zone. Maximum upper lip elevation, usually observed during a strained posed smile, should be assessed. This paper discusses some clinical observations and concepts in relation to smile line assessment for implant therapy in the esthetic zone. (Int J Periodontics Restorative Dent 2011;31:195-201.).

  12. The discovery of a conjugate system of faults in the Wharton Basin intraplate deformation zone

    PubMed Central

    Singh, Satish C.; Hananto, Nugroho; Qin, Yanfang; Leclerc, Frederique; Avianto, Praditya; Tapponnier, Paul E.; Carton, Helene; Wei, Shengji; Nugroho, Adam B.; Gemilang, Wishnu A.; Sieh, Kerry; Barbot, Sylvain

    2017-01-01

    The deformation at well-defined, narrow plate boundaries depends on the relative plate motion, but how the deformation takes place within a distributed plate boundary zone remains a conundrum. This was confirmed by the seismological analyses of the 2012 great Wharton Basin earthquakes [moment magnitude (Mw) 8.6], which suggested the rupture of several faults at high angles to one another. Using high-resolution bathymetry and seismic reflection data, we report the discovery of new N294°E-striking shear zones, oblique to the plate fabric. These shear zones are expressed by sets of normal faults striking at N335°E, defining the direction of the principal compressional stress in the region. Also, we have imaged left-lateral strike-slip faults along reactivated N7°E-oriented oceanic fracture zones. The shear zones and the reactivated fracture zones form a conjugate system of faults, which accommodate present-day intraplate deformation in the Wharton Basin. PMID:28070561

  13. The discovery of a conjugate system of faults in the Wharton Basin intraplate deformation zone.

    PubMed

    Singh, Satish C; Hananto, Nugroho; Qin, Yanfang; Leclerc, Frederique; Avianto, Praditya; Tapponnier, Paul E; Carton, Helene; Wei, Shengji; Nugroho, Adam B; Gemilang, Wishnu A; Sieh, Kerry; Barbot, Sylvain

    2017-01-01

    The deformation at well-defined, narrow plate boundaries depends on the relative plate motion, but how the deformation takes place within a distributed plate boundary zone remains a conundrum. This was confirmed by the seismological analyses of the 2012 great Wharton Basin earthquakes [moment magnitude ( M w ) 8.6], which suggested the rupture of several faults at high angles to one another. Using high-resolution bathymetry and seismic reflection data, we report the discovery of new N294°E-striking shear zones, oblique to the plate fabric. These shear zones are expressed by sets of normal faults striking at N335°E, defining the direction of the principal compressional stress in the region. Also, we have imaged left-lateral strike-slip faults along reactivated N7°E-oriented oceanic fracture zones. The shear zones and the reactivated fracture zones form a conjugate system of faults, which accommodate present-day intraplate deformation in the Wharton Basin.

  14. Spatial distribution of sand fly species (Psychodidae: Phlebtominae), ecological niche, and climatic regionalization in zoonotic foci of cutaneous leishmaniasis, southwest of Iran.

    PubMed

    Ebrahimi, Sahar; Bordbar, Ali; Rastaghi, Ahmad R Esmaeili; Parvizi, Parviz

    2016-06-01

    Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a complex vector-borne disease caused by Leishmania parasites that are transmitted by the bite of several species of infected female phlebotomine sand flies. Monthly factor analysis of climatic variables indicated fundamental variables. Principal component-based regionalization was used for recognition of climatic zones using a clustering integrated method that identified five climatic zones based on factor analysis. To investigate spatial distribution of the sand fly species, the kriging method was used as an advanced geostatistical procedure in the ArcGIS modeling system that is beneficial to design measurement plans and to predict the transmission cycle in various regions of Khuzestan province, southwest of Iran. However, more than an 80% probability of P. papatasi was observed in rainy and temperate bio-climatic zones with a high potential of CL transmission. Finding P. sergenti revealed the probability of transmission and distribution patterns of a non-native vector of CL in related zones. These findings could be used as models indicating climatic zones and environmental variables connected to sand fly presence and vector distribution. Furthermore, this information is appropriate for future research efforts into the ecology of Phlebotomine sand flies and for the prevention of CL vector transmission as a public health priority. © 2016 The Society for Vector Ecology.

  15. Bioclimatic Classification of Northeast Asia for climate change response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Y.; Jeon, S. W.; Lim, C. H.

    2016-12-01

    As climate change has been getting worse, we should monitor the change of biodiversity, and distribution of species to handle the crisis and take advantage of climate change. The development of bioclimatic map which classifies land into homogenous zones by similar environment properties is the first step to establish a strategy. Statistically derived classifications of land provide useful spatial frameworks to support ecosystem research, monitoring and policy decisions. Many countries are trying to make this kind of map and actively utilize it to ecosystem conservation and management. However, the Northeast Asia including North Korea doesn't have detailed environmental information, and has not built environmental classification map. Therefore, this study presents a bioclimatic map of Northeast Asia based on statistical clustering of bioclimate data. Bioclim data ver1.4 which provided by WorldClim were considered for inclusion in a model. Eight of the most relevant climate variables were selected by correlation analysis, based on previous studies. Principal Components Analysis (PCA) was used to explain 86% of the variation into three independent dimensions, which were subsequently clustered using an ISODATA clustering. The bioclimatic zone of Northeast Asia could consist of 29, 35, and 50 zones. This bioclimatic map has a 30' resolution. To assess the accuracy, the correlation coefficient was calculated between the first principal component values of the classification variables and the vegetation index, Gross Primary Production (GPP). It shows about 0.5 Pearson correlation coefficient. This study constructed Northeast Asia bioclimatic map by statistical method with high resolution, but in order to better reflect the realities, the variety of climate variables should be considered. Also, further studies should do more quantitative and qualitative validation in various ways. Then, this could be used more effectively to support decision making on climate change

  16. Oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) in the modern ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paulmier, A.; Ruiz-Pino, D.

    2009-03-01

    In the modern ocean, oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) are potential traces of a primitive ocean in which Archean bacteria lived and reduced chemical anomalies occurred. But OMZs are also keys to understanding the present unbalanced nitrogen cycle and the oceans’ role on atmospheric greenhouse control. OMZs are the main areas of nitrogen loss (as N 2, N 2O) to the atmosphere through denitrification and anammox, and could even indirectly mitigate the oceanic biological sequestration of CO 2. It was recently hypothesized that OMZs are going to spread in the coming decades as a consequence of global climate change. Despite an important OMZ role for the origin of marine life and for the biogeochemical cycles of carbon and nitrogen, there are some key questions on the structure of OMZs at a global scale. There is no agreement concerning the threshold in oxygen that defines an OMZ, and the extent of an OMZ is often evaluated by denitrification criteria which, at the same time, are O 2-dependent. Our work deals with the identification of each OMZ, the evaluation of its extent, volume and vertical structure, the determination of its seasonality or permanence and the comparison between OMZs and denitrification zones at a global scale. The co-existence in the OMZ of oxic (in its boundaries) and suboxic (even anoxic, in its core) conditions involves rather complex biogeochemical processes such as strong remineralization of the organic matter, removal of nitrate and release of nitrite. The quantitative OMZ analysis is focused on taking into account the whole water volume under the influence of an OMZ and adapted to the study of the specific low oxygen biogeochemical processes. A characterization of the entire structure for the main and most intense OMZs (O 2 < 20 μM reaching 1 μM in the core) is proposed based on a previously published CRIO criterion from the eastern South Pacific OMZ and including a large range of O 2 concentrations. Using the updated global WOA2005 O 2

  17. Locomotion in response to shifting climate zones: not so fast.

    PubMed

    Feder, Martin E; Garland, Theodore; Marden, James H; Zera, Anthony J

    2010-01-01

    Although a species' locomotor capacity is suggestive of its ability to escape global climate change, such a suggestion is not necessarily straightforward. Species vary substantially in locomotor capacity, both ontogenetically and within/among populations, and much of this variation has a genetic basis. Accordingly, locomotor capacity can and does evolve rapidly, as selection experiments demonstrate. Importantly, even though this evolution of locomotor capacity may be rapid enough to escape changing climate, genetic correlations among traits (often due to pleiotropy) are such that successful or rapid dispersers are often limited in colonization or reproductive ability, which may be viewed as a trade-off. The nuanced assessment of this variation and evolution is reviewed for well-studied models: salmon, flying versus flightless insects, rodents undergoing experimental evolution, and metapopulations of butterflies. This work reveals how integration of physiology with population biology and functional genomics can be especially informative.

  18. The World Grain Economy and Climate Change to the Year 2000: Implications for Policy

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-01-01

    THE WORLD GRAIN ECONOMY AND CUMATE CHANGE TO THE YEAR 2000: IMPUCATIONS FOR POUCY REPORT ON THE FINAL PHASE OF A CLIMATE IMPACT ASSESSMENT CONDUCTED...MODEL...................................... 37 APPENDIX B-A SUMMARY OF CROP YIELDS AND CLIMATE CHANGE TOTHE YR00............33 CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES...114. PROJECTED BASE 2000 YIELDS .................. 1S LIST OF TABLES 1. CLIMATE PARAMETERS BY LATITUDINAL ZONES .. S 2. SOURCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE

  19. The evolution of root-zone moisture capacities after deforestation: a step towards hydrological predictions under change?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nijzink, Remko; Hutton, Christopher; Pechlivanidis, Ilias; Capell, René; Arheimer, Berit; Freer, Jim; Han, Dawei; Wagener, Thorsten; McGuire, Kevin; Savenije, Hubert; Hrachowitz, Markus

    2016-12-01

    The core component of many hydrological systems, the moisture storage capacity available to vegetation, is impossible to observe directly at the catchment scale and is typically treated as a calibration parameter or obtained from a priori available soil characteristics combined with estimates of rooting depth. Often this parameter is considered to remain constant in time. Using long-term data (30-40 years) from three experimental catchments that underwent significant land cover change, we tested the hypotheses that: (1) the root-zone storage capacity significantly changes after deforestation, (2) changes in the root-zone storage capacity can to a large extent explain post-treatment changes to the hydrological regimes and that (3) a time-dynamic formulation of the root-zone storage can improve the performance of a hydrological model.A recently introduced method to estimate catchment-scale root-zone storage capacities based on climate data (i.e. observed rainfall and an estimate of transpiration) was used to reproduce the temporal evolution of root-zone storage capacity under change. Briefly, the maximum deficit that arises from the difference between cumulative daily precipitation and transpiration can be considered as a proxy for root-zone storage capacity. This value was compared to the value obtained from four different conceptual hydrological models that were calibrated for consecutive 2-year windows.It was found that water-balance-derived root-zone storage capacities were similar to the values obtained from calibration of the hydrological models. A sharp decline in root-zone storage capacity was observed after deforestation, followed by a gradual recovery, for two of the three catchments. Trend analysis suggested hydrological recovery periods between 5 and 13 years after deforestation. In a proof-of-concept analysis, one of the hydrological models was adapted to allow dynamically changing root-zone storage capacities, following the observed changes due to

  20. Terrestrial essential climate variables (ECVs) at a glance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stitt, Susan; Dwyer, John; Dye, Dennis; Josberger, Edward

    2011-01-01

    The Global Terrestrial Observing System, Global Climate Observing System, World Meteorological Organization, and Committee on Earth Observation Satellites all support consistent global land observations and measurements. To accomplish this goal, the Global Terrestrial Observing System defined 'essential climate variables' as measurements of atmosphere, oceans, and land that are technically and economically feasible for systematic observation and that are needed to meet the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and requirements of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The following are the climate variables defined by the Global Terrestrial Observing System that relate to terrestrial measurements. Several of them are currently measured most appropriately by in-place observations, whereas others are suitable for measurement by remote sensing technologies. The U.S. Geological Survey is the steward of the Landsat archive, satellite imagery collected from 1972 to the present, that provides a potential basis for deriving long-term, global-scale, accurate, timely and consistent measurements of many of these essential climate variables.

  1. Climate change and health: Why should India be concerned?

    PubMed

    Majra, J P; Gur, A

    2009-04-01

    Overwhelming evidence shows that climate change presents growing threats to public health security - from extreme weather-related disasters to wider spread of such vector-borne diseases as malaria and dengue. The impacts of climate on human health will not be evenly distributed around the world. The Third Assessment Report (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-2001) concluded that vulnerability to climate change is a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Developing country populations, particularly in small island states, arid and high mountain zones, and in densely populated coastal areas are considered to be particularly vulnerable. India is a large developing country, with the Great Himalayas, the world's third largest ice mass in the north, 7500 km long, and densely populated coast line in the south. Nearly 700 million of her over one billion population living in rural areas directly depends on climate-sensitive sectors (agriculture, forests, and fisheries) and natural resources (such as water, biodiversity, mangroves, coastal zones, grasslands) for their subsistence and livelihoods. Heat wave, floods (land and coastal), and draughts occur commonly. Malaria, malnutrition, and diarrhea are major public health problems. Any further increase, as projected in weather-related disasters and related health effects, may cripple the already inadequate public health infrastructure in the country. Hence, there is an urgent need to respond to the situation. Response options to protect health from effects of climate change include mitigation as well as adaptation. Both can complement each other and together can significantly reduce the risks of climate change.

  2. Dengue burden in India: recent trends and importance of climatic parameters.

    PubMed

    Mutheneni, Srinivasa Rao; Morse, Andrew P; Caminade, Cyril; Upadhyayula, Suryanaryana Murty

    2017-08-09

    For the past ten years, the number of dengue cases has gradually increased in India. Dengue is driven by complex interactions among host, vector and virus that are influenced by climatic factors. In the present study, we focused on the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) and its variability in different climatic zones of India. The EIP was calculated by using daily and monthly mean temperatures for the states of Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Kerala. Among the studied states, a faster/low EIP in Kerala (8-15 days at 30.8 and 23.4 °C) and a generally slower/high EIP in Punjab (5.6-96.5 days at 35 and 0 °C) were simulated with daily temperatures. EIPs were calculated for different seasons, and Kerala showed the lowest EIP during the monsoon period. In addition, a significant association between dengue cases and precipitation was also observed. The results suggest that temperature is important in virus development in different climatic regions and may be useful in understanding spatio-temporal variations in dengue risk. Climate-based disease forecasting models in India should be refined and tailored for different climatic zones, instead of use of a standard model.

  3. Monitoring the change of coastal zones from space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cazenave, A. A.; Le Cozannet, G.; Benveniste, J.; Woodworth, P. L.

    2017-12-01

    The world's coastal zones, where an important fraction of the world population is currently living, are under serious threat because of coastal erosion, cyclones, storms, and salinization of estuaries and coastal aquifers. In the future, these hazards are expected to increase due to the combined effects of sea level rise, climate change, human activities and population increase. The response of coastal environments to natural and anthropogenic forcing factors (including climate change) depends on the characteristics of the forcing agents, as well as on the internal properties of the coastal systems, that remain poorly known and mostly un-surveyed at global scale. To better understand changes affecting coastal zones and to provide useful information to decision makers, various types of observations with global coverage need to be collected and analysed. Observations from space appear as an important complement to existing in situ observing systems (e.g., regional tide gauge networks). In this presentation, we discuss the benefit of systematic coastal monitoring from space, addressing both observations of forcing agents and of the coastal response. We highlight the need for a global coastal sea level data set based on retracked nadir altimetry missions and new SAR technology.

  4. Origin and cross-century dynamics of an avian hybrid zone.

    PubMed

    Morales-Rozo, Andrea; Tenorio, Elkin A; Carling, Matthew D; Cadena, Carlos Daniel

    2017-12-15

    Characterizations of the dynamics of hybrid zones in space and time can give insights about traits and processes important in population divergence and speciation. We characterized a hybrid zone between tanagers in the genus Ramphocelus (Aves, Thraupidae) located in southwestern Colombia. We evaluated whether this hybrid zone originated as a result of secondary contact or of primary differentiation, and described its dynamics across time using spatial analyses of molecular, morphological, and coloration data in combination with paleodistribution modeling. Models of potential historical distributions based on climatic data and genetic signatures of demographic expansion suggested that the hybrid zone likely originated following secondary contact between populations that expanded their ranges out of isolated areas in the Quaternary. Concordant patterns of variation in phenotypic characters across the hybrid zone and its narrow extent are suggestive of a tension zone, maintained by a balance between dispersal and selection against hybrids. Estimates of phenotypic cline parameters obtained using specimens collected over nearly a century revealed that, in recent decades, the zone appears to have moved to the east and to higher elevations, and may have become narrower. Genetic variation was not clearly structured along the hybrid zone, but comparisons between historical and contemporary specimens suggested that temporal changes in its genetic makeup may also have occurred. Our data suggest that the hybrid zone likey resulted from secondary contact between populations. The observed changes in the hybrid zone may be a result of sexual selection, asymmetric gene flow, or environmental change.

  5. Climate change and its impacts on estuaries

    EPA Science Inventory

    Past, present, and future research by WED scientists in the TEP region will be described to lay the foundation for examination of potential climate change effects on estuaries and the broader coastal zone in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Results from National Coastal Assessments,...

  6. Distribution of Minor Elements in Calcite From the Unsaturated Zone at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marshall, B. D.; Whelan, J. F.

    2001-12-01

    Calcite is sporadically distributed in fractures and cavities in the volcanic rocks that form the 500- to 700-m-thick unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain. Previous work has shown that the calcite precipitated from water moving downward through the unsaturated zone since the volcanic rocks were emplaced approximately 13 Ma. Calcite thus serves as a proxy for the chemistry and amounts of past percolation, two parameters that are important in predictions of the future behavior of the potential radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain. Latest calcite, which began forming between approximately 5 and 2 Ma, typically displays fine-scale growth zoning defined by distributions of Mn (inferred from cathodoluminescence), Mg, and Sr. Electron microprobe (EPMA) mapping of outermost calcite reveals Mg growth zoning1 and higher overall concentrations of Mg in late calcite than in older calcite. Micro X-ray fluorescence (micro-XRF) maps were obtained by slow rastering of the samples over a 100-watt X-ray source collimated through a final aperture of 100 μ m. Although the spatial resolution of the micro-XRF mapping is much less than that of EPMA, this technique reveals distributions of some elements to which EPMA is less sensitive. Micro-XRF maps show that Sr is spatially correlated with Mg; Sr concentrations range to 500 μ g/g at the resolution of the 100-μ m collimator. Because both Mg and Sr have similar calcite-water distribution coefficients much less than one, the Mg/Sr in calcite reflects the Mg/Sr of the water that precipitated the calcite. The distribution coefficient for Mn is greater than one and variations in Mn are not correlated with Mg and Sr. Covariation of Mg and Sr in the percolating water may be explained by reactions that affect the rate of uptake of chemical constituents from the overlying rock and soil, and/or evaporation. Late calcite has lower δ 13C values, probably due to a regional change from wetter to drier climate conditions. The higher Mg and

  7. Putting the Weather Back Into Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Leonard A.; Stainforth, David A.

    2014-05-01

    The literature contains a variety of definitions of climate, and the emphasis in these definitions has changed over time. Defining climate as a mean value is, of course, both limiting and misleading; definitions of climate based on averages have been deprecated as far back as 1931 [1]. In the context of current efforts to produce climate predictions for use in climate adaptation, it is timely to consider how well various definitions of climate serve the research for applications community. From a nonlinear dynamical systems perspective it is common to associate climate with a system's natural measure (or "attractor" if such an object exists). Such a definition is not easily applied to physical systems where we have limited observations over a restricted period of time; the duration of 30 years is often mentioned today and the origin of this period is discussed. Given a dynamic system in which parameters are evolving in time, the view of climate as a natural measure becomes problematic as, by definition, there may be no attractor per se. Attractors defined for particular parameter values cannot be expected to have any association with the probability of states under transient changes in the values of that parameter. Alternatively, distributions may be determined which reflect the transient situation, based on (rather broad) additional assumptions regarding the state of the system at some point in the past (say, an ice age planet vs an interglacial planet). Such distributions reflect many of the properties one would hope to be represented in a generalised definition of the system's climate. Here we trace how definitions of climate have changed over time and highlight a number of properties of definitions of climate which would facilitate common use across researchers, from observers to theoreticians, from climate modellers to mathematicians. We show while periodic changes in parameter values (such as those found in an annual cycle or a diurnal cycle) are easily

  8. Validating Variance Similarity Functions in the Entrainment Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Osman, M.; Turner, D. D.; Heus, T.; Newsom, R. K.

    2017-12-01

    In previous work, the water vapor variance in the entrainment zone was proposed to be proportional to the convective velocity scale, gradient water vapor mixing ratio and the Brunt-Vaisala frequency in the interfacial layer, while the variance of the vertical wind at in the entrainment zone was defined in terms of the convective velocity scale. The variances in the entrainment zone have been hypothesized to depend on two distinct functions, which also depend on the Richardson number. To the best of our knowledge, these hypotheses have never been tested observationally. Simultaneous measurements of the Eddy correlation surface flux, wind shear profiles from wind profilers, and variance profile measurements of vertical motions and water vapor by Doppler and Raman lidars, respectively, provide a unique opportunity to thoroughly examine the functions used in defining the variances and validate them. These observations were made over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. We have identified about 30 cases from 2016 during which the convective boundary layer (CBL) is quasi-stationary and well mixed for at least 2 hours. The vertical profiles of turbulent fluctuations of the vertical wind and water vapor have been derived using an auto covariance technique to separate out the instrument random error to a set of 2-h period time series. The error analysis of the lidars observations demonstrates that the lidars are capable of resolving the vertical structure of turbulence around the entrainment zone. Therefore, utilizing this unique combination of observations, this study focuses on extensively testing the hypotheses that the second-order moments are indeed proportional to the functions which also depend on Richardson number. The coefficients that are used in defining the functions will also be determined observationally and compared against with the values suggested by Large eddy simulation (LES) studies.

  9. Theoretical Communities of Praxis: The University Writing Center as Cultural Contact Zone

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Monty, Randall William

    2013-01-01

    The fundamental purpose of "Theoretical Communities of Praxis: The University Writing Center as Cultural Contact Zone" is to investigate the situatedness of Writing Center Studies, defining it as an autonomous (sub)discipline and interdisciplinary contact zone within the larger discipline of Rhetoric and Composition. In order to meet…

  10. Hydrological and Climate Controls on Hyporheic Contributions to River Net Ecosystem Productivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newcomer, M. E.; Hubbard, S. S.; Fleckenstein, J. H.; Maier, U.; Schmidt, C.; Laube, G.; Chen, N.; Ulrich, C.; Dwivedi, D.; Steefel, C. I.; Rubin, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Hyporheic zone contributions to river net ecosystem productivity (NEP) can represent a substantial source or sink for organic and inorganic carbon (C). Hyporheic zone processes are estimated to vary with network location as a function of river-aquifer interactions as well as with climatic factors supporting riverbed gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration. Even though hyporheic zone NEP is hypothesized to be a significant budgetary component to river-aquifer biogeochemical cycling, models of river NEP often parameterize hyporheic zone contributions as a space-time constant input of CO2 to rivers, leading to overestimation of hyporheic zone NEP and underestimation of C storage. This assumption is problematic during the summer growing season, when GPP is largest and C is stored in surface and subsurface biomass. We investigated the dynamic role of hyporheic zone NEP using the MIN3P flow and reactive transport model with surface water GPP and ecosystem respiration simulated as a function of light, depth, temperature, pH, and atmospheric CO2. We simulated hyporheic zone NEP for low-order and high-order streams, which collectively represent a range of characteristic flow paths and subsurface residence times. Downscaled climate predictions of temperature and atmospheric CO2 representing carbon emission futures were used to force the models and to compare future and current hyporheic zone NEP. Our results show that river-aquifer flow conditions determine the relative role of the river as either a store or sink of C through direct contributions of O2 and dissolved organic content from river GPP. Modeled results show that high discharge, high order rivers are net stores of CO2 from the atmosphere; however this is dependent on perturbation events that allow stored C from summer GPP to be released (i.e. rising water tables during winter storms). Lacking a perturbation event, C remains in pore-water storage as dissolved CO2 and biomass. Conversely, low

  11. Recommendations for the Regionalizing of Coffee Cultivation in Colombia: A Methodological Proposal Based on Agro-Climatic Indices

    PubMed Central

    García L., Juan Carlos; Posada-Suárez, Húver; Läderach, Peter

    2014-01-01

    The Colombian National Federation of Coffee Growers (FNC) conducted an agro-ecological zoning study based on climate, soil, and terrain of the Colombian coffee-growing regions (CCGR) located in the tropics, between 1° and 11.5° N, in areas of complex topography. To support this study, a climate baseline was constructed at a spatial resolution of 5 km. Twenty-one bioclimatic indicators were drawn from this baseline data and from yield data for different coffee genotypes evaluated under conditions at eight experimental stations (ESs) belonging to the National Center for Coffee Research (CENICAFÉ). Three topographic indicators were obtained from a digital elevation model (DEM). Zoning at a national level resulted in the differentiation of 12 agro-climatic zones. Altitude notably influenced zone differentiation, however other factors such as large air currents, low-pressure atmospheric systems, valleys of the great rivers, and physiography also played an important role. The strategy of zoning according to coffee-growing conditions will enable areas with the greatest potential for the development of coffee cultivation to be identified, criteria for future research to be generated, and the level of technology implementation to be assessed. PMID:25436456

  12. Recommendations for the regionalizing of coffee cultivation in Colombia: a methodological proposal based on agro-climatic indices.

    PubMed

    García L, Juan Carlos; Posada-Suárez, Húver; Läderach, Peter

    2014-01-01

    The Colombian National Federation of Coffee Growers (FNC) conducted an agro-ecological zoning study based on climate, soil, and terrain of the Colombian coffee-growing regions (CCGR) located in the tropics, between 1° and 11.5° N, in areas of complex topography. To support this study, a climate baseline was constructed at a spatial resolution of 5 km. Twenty-one bioclimatic indicators were drawn from this baseline data and from yield data for different coffee genotypes evaluated under conditions at eight experimental stations (ESs) belonging to the National Center for Coffee Research (CENICAFÉ). Three topographic indicators were obtained from a digital elevation model (DEM). Zoning at a national level resulted in the differentiation of 12 agro-climatic zones. Altitude notably influenced zone differentiation, however other factors such as large air currents, low-pressure atmospheric systems, valleys of the great rivers, and physiography also played an important role. The strategy of zoning according to coffee-growing conditions will enable areas with the greatest potential for the development of coffee cultivation to be identified, criteria for future research to be generated, and the level of technology implementation to be assessed.

  13. Provisional tree seed zones and transfer guidelines for Alaska.

    Treesearch

    John N. Alden

    1991-01-01

    Four hundred and eighty-six provisional tree seed zones were delineated within 24 physiographic and climatic regions of Alaska and western Yukon Territory Estimated forest and potential forest land within altitudinal limits of tree species in Alaska was 51,853,000 hectares (128,130,000 acres) Seed transfer guidelines and standard labeling of seed collections are...

  14. Integration and Typologies of Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australian Wheat Sheep Zones.

    PubMed

    Huai, Jianjun

    2016-09-27

    Although the integrated indicator methods have become popular for assessing vulnerability to climate change, their proliferation has introduced a confusing array of scales and indicators that cause a science-policy gap. I argue for a clear adaptation pathway in an "integrative typology" of regional vulnerability that matches appropriate scales, optimal measurements and adaptive strategies in a six-dimensional and multi-level analysis framework of integration and typology inspired by the "5W1H" questions: "Who is concerned about how to adapt to the vulnerability of what to what in some place (where) at some time (when)?" Using the case of the vulnerability of wheat, barley and oats to drought in Australian wheat sheep zones during 1978-1999, I answer the "5W1H" questions through establishing the "six typologies" framework. I then optimize the measurement of vulnerability through contrasting twelve kinds of vulnerability scores with the divergence of crops yields from their regional mean. Through identifying the socioeconomic constraints, I propose seven generic types of crop-drought vulnerability and local adaptive strategy. Our results illustrate that the process of assessing vulnerability and selecting adaptations can be enhanced using a combination of integration, optimization and typology, which emphasize dynamic transitions and transformations between integration and typology.

  15. Persistence and memory timescales in root-zone soil moisture dynamics

    Treesearch

    Khaled Ghannam; Taro Nakai; Athanasios Paschalis; Andrew C. Oishi; Ayumi Kotani; Yasunori Igarashi; Tomo' omi Kumagai; Gabriel G. Katul

    2016-01-01

    The memory timescale that characterizes root-zone soil moisture remains the dominant measure in seasonal forecasts of land-climate interactions. This memory is a quasi-deterministic timescale associated with the losses (e.g., evapotranspiration) from the soil column and is often interpreted as persistence in soil moisture states. Persistence, however,...

  16. Identification and dynamics of a cryptic suture zone in tropical rainforest

    PubMed Central

    Moritz, C.; Hoskin, C.J.; MacKenzie, J.B.; Phillips, B.L.; Tonione, M.; Silva, N.; VanDerWal, J.; Williams, S.E.; Graham, C.H.

    2009-01-01

    Suture zones, shared regions of secondary contact between long-isolated lineages, are natural laboratories for studying divergence and speciation. For tropical rainforest, the existence of suture zones and their significance for speciation has been controversial. Using comparative phylogeographic evidence, we locate a morphologically cryptic suture zone in the Australian Wet Tropics rainforest. Fourteen out of 18 contacts involve morphologically cryptic phylogeographic lineages, with mtDNA sequence divergences ranging from 2 to 15 per cent. Contact zones are significantly clustered in a suture zone located between two major Quaternary refugia. Within this area, there is a trend for secondary contacts to occur in regions with low environmental suitability relative to both adjacent refugia and, by inference, the parental lineages. The extent and form of reproductive isolation among interacting lineages varies across species, ranging from random admixture to speciation, in one case via reinforcement. Comparative phylogeographic studies, combined with environmental analysis at a fine-scale and across varying climates, can generate new insights into suture zone formation and to diversification processes in species-rich tropical rainforests. As arenas for evolutionary experimentation, suture zones merit special attention for conservation. PMID:19203915

  17. Vulnerability to climate variability and change in East Timor.

    PubMed

    Barnett, Jon; Dessai, Suraje; Jones, Roger N

    2007-07-01

    This paper presents the results of a preliminary study of climate vulnerability in East Timor. It shows the results of projections of climate change in East Timor. The country's climate may become hotter, drier, and increasingly variable. Sea levels are likely to rise. The paper then considers the implications of these changes on three natural resources--water, soils, and the coastal zone--and finds all to be sensitive to changes in climate and sea level. Changes in the abundance and distribution of these resources is likely to cause a reduction in agricultural production and food security, and sea-level rise is likely to damage coastal areas, including Dili, the capital city.

  18. 26 CFR 49.4253-4 - Exemption for servicemen in combat zone.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... originating at (Point of origin) within a combat zone from (Name) a member of the Armed Forces of the United... zone, as defined in section 112, from a member of the Armed Forces of the United States performing... which Armed Forces of the United States are or have engaged in combat, and only if it is performed on or...

  19. [Climate and ecologic state of urban areas in Eastern Kazakhstan].

    PubMed

    Onaev, S T; Grebeneva, O V; Shadetova, A Zh; Kurmangalieva, D S; Balaeva, E A

    2011-01-01

    Ust-Kamenogorsk territory was demonstrated to have climate peculiarities depending on local relief and unfavorable wind conditions of ventilation, that could promote formation of highly chemically loaded zones. Suggested evaluation methods provide qualitative and quantitative assessment of climate parameters for individual areas of residence. Marking areas according to residence comfort for population, based on analysis of geographic position of the studied territory, in accordance with repetition of meteorologic processes, could specify major factors influencing climate on urban territories of modem Kazakhstan cities.

  20. Using local climate zone classifications to assess the influence of urban morphology on the urban heat island effect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satcher, P. S.; Brunsell, N. A.

    2017-12-01

    Alterations to land cover resulting from urbanization interact with the atmospheric boundary layer inducing elevated surface and air temperatures, changes to the surface energy balance (SEB), and modifications to regional circulations and climates. These changes pose risks to public health, ecological systems, and have the potential to affect economic interests. We used Google Earth Engine's Landsat archive to classify local climate zones (LCZ) that consist of ten urban and seven non-urban classes to examine the influence of urban morphology on the urban heat island (UHI) effect. We used geostatistical methods to determine the significance of the spatial distributions of LCZs to land surface temperatures (LST) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products. We used the triangle method to assess the variability of SEB partitioning in relation to high, medium, and low density LCZ classes. Fractional vegetation cover (Fr) was calculated using NDVI data. Linear regressions of observations in Fr-LST space for select LCZ classes were compared for selected eight-day periods to determine changes in energy partitioning and relative soil moisture availability. The magnitude of each flux is not needed to determine changes to the SEB. The regressions will examine near surface soil moisture, which is indicative of how much radiation is partitioned into evaporation. To compare changes occurring over one decade, we used MODIS NDVI and LST data from 2005 and 2015. Results indicated that variations in the SEB can be detected using the LCZ classification method. The results from analysis in Fr-LST space of the annual cycles over several years can be used to detect changes in the SEB as urbanization increases.

  1. Holocene climate variability and oceanographic changes off western South Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Xueqin; Dupont, Lydie; E Meadows, Michael; Schefuß, Enno; Bouimetarhan, Ilham; Wefer, Gerold

    2017-04-01

    South Africa is located at a critical transition zone between subtropical and warm-temperate climate zones influenced by the Indian and Atlantic oceans. Presently, the seasonal changes of atmospheric and oceanic systems induce a pronounced rainfall seasonality comprised of two different rainfall zones over South Africa. How did this seasonality develop during the Holocene? To obtain a better understanding of how South African climates have evolved during the Holocene, we conduct a comprehensive spatial-temporal approach including pollen and dinoflagellate cyst records from marine sediment samples retrieved from the Namaqualand mudbelt, a Holocene terrigenous mud deposit on the shelf of western South Africa. The representation of different vegetation communities in western South Africa is assessed through pollen analysis of surface sediments. This approach allows for climate reconstructions of the summer rainfall zone (SRZ) using Group 1 (Poaceae, Cyperaceae, Phragmites-type and Typha) and winter rainfall zone (WRZ) using Group 2 (Restionaceae, Ericaceae, Anthospermum, Stoebe/Elytropappus-type, Cliffortia, Passerina, Artemisia-type and Pentzia-type) from a single marine archive. The fossil pollen data from gravity core GeoB8331-4 indicate contrasting climate patterns in the SRZ and WRZ especially during the early and middle Holocene. The rainfall amount in the SRZ is dominated by insolation forcing, while in the WRZ it is mainly attributed to the latitudinal position of the southern westerlies. Dinoflagellate cyst data show significantly different oceanographic conditions associated with climate changes on land. High percentages of autotrophic taxa like Operculodinium centrocarpum and Spiniferites spp. indicate warm and stratified conditions during the early Holocene, suggesting reduced upwelling. In contrast, the middle Holocene is characterized by a strong increase in heterotrophic taxa in particular Lejeunecysta paratenella and Echinidinium spp., indicating cool

  2. Southwest regional climate hub and California subsidiary hub assessment of climate change vulnerability and adaptation and mitigation strategies

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    This report describes the potential vulnerability of specialty crops, field crops, forests, and animal agriculture to climate-driven environmental changes. Here, vulnerability is defined as a function of exposure to climate change effects, sensitivity to these effects, and adaptive capacity. The exp...

  3. Temporal Hyporheic Zone Response to Water Table Fluctuations.

    PubMed

    Malzone, Jonathan M; Anseeuw, Sierra K; Lowry, Christopher S; Allen-King, Richelle

    2016-03-01

    Expansion and contraction of the hyporheic zone due to temporal hydrologic changes between stream and riparian aquifer influence the biogeochemical cycling capacity of streams. Theoretical studies have quantified the control of groundwater discharge on the depth of the hyporheic zone; however, observations of temporal groundwater controls are limited. In this study, we develop the concept of groundwater-dominated differential hyporheic zone expansion to explain the temporal control of groundwater discharge on the hyporheic zone in a third-order stream reach flowing through glacially derived terrain typical of the Great Lakes region. We define groundwater-dominated differential expansion of the hyporheic zone as: differing rates and magnitudes of hyporheic zone expansion in response to seasonal vs. storm-related water table fluctuation. Specific conductance and vertical hydraulic gradient measurements were used to map changes in the hyporheic zone during seasonal water table decline and storm events. Planar and riffle beds were monitored in order to distinguish the cause of increasing hyporheic zone depth. Planar bed seasonal expansion of the hyporheic zone was of a greater magnitude and longer in duration (weeks to months) than storm event expansion (hours to days). In contrast, the hyporheic zone beneath the riffle bed exhibited minimal expansion in response to seasonal groundwater decline compared to storm related expansion. Results indicated that fluctuation in the riparian water table controlled seasonal expansion of the hyporheic zone along the planar bed. This groundwater induced hyporheic zone expansion could increase the potential for biogeochemical cycling and natural attenuation. © 2015, National Ground Water Association.

  4. Geophysics applications in critical zone science: emerging topics

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Geophysical studies have resulted in remarkable advances in characterization of critical zone. The geophysics applications uncover the relationships between structure and function in subsurface as they seek to define subsurface structural units with individual properties of retention and trans...

  5. Thermal comfort in naturally ventilated and air-conditioned buildings in humid subtropical climate zone in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Wei; Zhang, Guoqiang

    2008-05-01

    A thermal comfort field study has been carried out in five cities in the humid subtropical climate zone in China. The survey was performed in naturally ventilated and air-conditioned buildings during the summer season in 2006. There were 229 occupants from 111 buildings who participated in this study and 229 questionnaire responses were collected. Thermal acceptability assessment reveals that the indoor environment in naturally ventilated buildings could not meet the 80% acceptability criteria prescribed by ASHRAE Standard 55, and people tended to feel more comfortable in air-conditioned buildings with the air-conditioned occupants voting with higher acceptability (89%) than the naturally ventilated occupants (58%). The neutral temperatures in naturally ventilated and air-conditioned buildings were 28.3°C and 27.7°C, respectively. The range of accepted temperature in naturally ventilated buildings (25.0˜31.6°C) was wider than that in air-conditioned buildings (25.1˜30.3°C), which suggests that occupants in naturally ventilated buildings seemed to be more tolerant of higher temperatures. Preferred temperatures were 27.9°C and 27.3°C in naturally ventilated and air-conditioned buildings, respectively, both of which were 0.4°C cooler than neutral temperatures. This result suggests that people of hot climates may use words like “slightly cool” to describe their preferred thermal state. The relationship between draught sensation and indoor air velocity at different temperature ranges indicates that indoor air velocity had a significant influence over the occupants’ comfort sensation, and air velocities required by occupants increased with the increasing of operative temperatures. Thus, an effective way of natural ventilation which can create the preferred higher air movement is called for. Finally, the indoor set-point temperature of 26°C or even higher in air-conditioned buildings was confirmed as making people comfortable, which supports the regulation

  6. A climate trend analysis of Sudan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Funk, Christopher C.; Eilerts, Gary; Verdin, Jim; Rowland, Jim; Marshall, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Summer rains in western and southern Sudan have declined by 10-20 percent since the mid-1970s. Observed warming of more than 1 degree Celsius is equivalent to another 10-20 percent reduction in rainfall for crops. The warming and drying have impacted southern Darfur and areas around Juba. Rainfall declines west of Juba threaten southern Sudan's future food production prospects. In many cases, areas with changing climate are coincident with zones of substantial conflict, suggesting some degree of association; however, the contribution of climate change to these conflicts is not currently understood. Rapid population growth and the expansion of farming and pastoralism under a more variable climate regime could dramatically increase the number of at-risk people in Sudan over the next 20 years.

  7. Kinematic evolution of the Maacama Fault Zone, Northern California Coast Ranges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schroeder, Rick D.

    The Maacama Fault Zone (MFZ) is a major component of the Pacific-North American transform boundary in northern California, and its distribution of deformation and kinematic evolution defines that of a young continental transform boundary. The USGS Quaternary database (2010) currently defines the MFZ as a relatively narrow fault zone; however, a cluster analysis of microearthquakes beneath the MFZ defines a wider fault zone, composed of multiple seismogenically active faults. The surface projection of best-fit tabular zones through foci clusters correlates with previously interpreted faults that were assumed inactive. New investigations further delineate faults within the MFZ based on geomorphic features and shallow resistivity surveys, and these faults are interpreted to be part of several active pull-apart fault systems. The location of faults and changes in their geometry in relation to geomorphic features, indicate >8 km of cumulative dextral displacement across the eastern portion of the MFZ at Little Lake Valley, which includes other smaller offsets on fault strands in the valley. Some faults within the MFZ have geometries consistent with reactivated subduction-related reverse faults, and project near outcrops of pre-existing faults, filled with mechanically weak minerals. The mechanical behavior of fault zones is influenced by the spatial distribution and abundance of mechanically weak lithologies and mineralogies within the heterogeneous Franciscan melange that the MFZ displaces. This heterogeneity is characterized near Little Lake Valley (LLV) using remotely sensed data, field mapping, and wellbore data, and is composed of 2--5 km diameter disk-shaped coherent blocks that can be competent and resist deformation. Coherent blocks and the melange that surrounds them are the source for altered minerals that fill portions of fault zones. Mechanically weak minerals in pre-existing fault zones, identified by X-ray diffraction and electron microprobe analyses, are

  8. Limit cycles at the outer edge of the habitable zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haqq-Misra, J. D.; Kopparapu, R.; Batalha, N. E.; Harman, C.; Kasting, J. F.

    2016-12-01

    The liquid water habitable zone (HZ) describes the orbital distance at which a terrestrial planet can maintain above-freezing conditions through regulation by the carbonate-silicate cycle. Calculations with one-dimensional climate models predict that the inner edge of the HZ is limited by water loss through a runaway greenhouse, while the outer edge of the HZ is bounded by the maximum greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide. This classic picture of the HZ continues to guide interpretation of exoplanet discoveries; however, recent calculations have shown that terrestrial planets near the outer edge of the HZ may exhibit other behaviors that affect their habitability. Here I discuss results from a hierarchy of climate models to understand the stellar environments most likely to support a habitable planet. I present energy balance climate model calculations showing the conditions under which planets in the outer regions of the habitable zone should oscillate between long, globally glaciated states and shorter periods of climatic warmth, known as `limit cycles.' Such conditions would be inimical to the development of complex land life, including intelligent life. Limit cycles may also provide an explanation for fluvial features on early Mars, although this requires additional greenhouse warming by hydrogen. These calculations show that the net volcanic outgassing rate and the propensity for plant life to sequester carbon dioxide are critical factors that determine the susceptibility of a planet to limit cycling. I argue that planets orbiting mid G- to mid K-type stars offer more opportunity for supporting advanced life than do planets around F-type stars or M-type stars.

  9. Indiana bat summer maternity distribution: effects of current and future climates

    Treesearch

    Susan C. Loeb; Eric A. Winters

    2013-01-01

    Temperate zone bats may be more sensitive to climate change than other groups of mammals because many aspects of their ecology are closely linked to temperature. However, few studies have tried to predict the responses of bats to climate change. The Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) is a federally listed endangered species that is found in the eastern...

  10. Landscape units of Puerto Rico: influence of climate, substrate, and topography

    Treesearch

    William A. Gould; Michael E. Jimenez; Gary Potts; Maya Quinones

    2008-01-01

    The landscape units map of Puerto Rico represents climatic, substrate, and topographic variation by integrating six climatic zones (Ewel and Whitmore 1973), six distinct substrates (Bawiec 2001, USGS 2005), five topographic positions or landforms (Martinuzzi et al. 2007), and prominent lakes and rivers (USGS 2005). Substrates were a simplified set of Bawiec’s (2001)...

  11. Fatigue zones in metals identified by polarized light photography

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walsh, F. D.

    1967-01-01

    Polarized light technique clearly defines the fatigue zones in metal for measuring and photographing. White light is passed through a vertical polarizing filter and then is reflected onto the surface of the fracture specimen.

  12. Robust assessment of the expansion and retreat of Mediterranean climate in the 21st century

    PubMed Central

    Alessandri, Andrea; De Felice, Matteo; Zeng, Ning; Mariotti, Annarita; Pan, Yutong; Cherchi, Annalisa; Lee, June-Yi; Wang, Bin; Ha, Kyung-Ja; Ruti, Paolo; Artale, Vincenzo

    2014-01-01

    The warm-temperate regions of the globe characterized by dry summers and wet winters (Mediterranean climate; MED) are especially vulnerable to climate change. The potential impact on water resources, ecosystems and human livelihood requires a detailed picture of the future changes in this unique climate zone. Here we apply a probabilistic approach to quantitatively address how and why the geographic distribution of MED will change based on the latest-available climate projections for the 21st century. Our analysis provides, for the first time, a robust assessment of significant northward and eastward future expansions of MED over both the Euro-Mediterranean and western North America. Concurrently, we show a significant 21st century replacement of the equatorward MED margins by the arid climate type. Moreover, future winters will become wetter and summers drier in both the old and newly established MED zones. Should these projections be realized, living conditions in some of the most densely populated regions in the world will be seriously jeopardized. PMID:25448867

  13. Major threats of pollution and climate change to global coastal ecosystems and enhanced management for sustainability.

    PubMed

    Lu, Yonglong; Yuan, Jingjing; Lu, Xiaotian; Su, Chao; Zhang, Yueqing; Wang, Chenchen; Cao, Xianghui; Li, Qifeng; Su, Jilan; Ittekkot, Venugopalan; Garbutt, Richard Angus; Bush, Simon; Fletcher, Stephen; Wagey, Tonny; Kachur, Anatolii; Sweijd, Neville

    2018-08-01

    Coastal zone is of great importance in the provision of various valuable ecosystem services. However, it is also sensitive and vulnerable to environmental changes due to high human populations and interactions between the land and ocean. Major threats of pollution from over enrichment of nutrients, increasing metals and persistent organic pollutants (POPs), and climate change have led to severe ecological degradation in the coastal zone, while few studies have focused on the combined impacts of pollution and climate change on the coastal ecosystems at the global level. A global overview of nutrients, metals, POPs, and major environmental changes due to climate change and their impacts on coastal ecosystems was carried out in this study. Coasts of the Eastern Atlantic and Western Pacific were hotspots of concentrations of several pollutants, and mostly affected by warming climate. These hotspots shared the same features of large populations, heavy industry and (semi-) closed sea. Estimation of coastal ocean capital, integrated management of land-ocean interaction in the coastal zone, enhancement of integrated global observation system, and coastal ecosystem-based management can play effective roles in promoting sustainable management of coastal marine ecosystems. Enhanced management from the perspective of mitigating pollution and climate change was proposed. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Climate research priorities for policy-makers, practitioners, and scientists in Georgia, USA.

    PubMed

    Rudd, Murray A; Moore, Althea F P; Rochberg, Daniel; Bianchi-Fossati, Lisa; Brown, Marilyn A; D'Onofrio, David; Furman, Carrie A; Garcia, Jairo; Jordan, Ben; Kline, Jennifer; Risse, L Mark; Yager, Patricia L; Abbinett, Jessica; Alber, Merryl; Bell, Jesse E; Bhedwar, Cyrus; Cobb, Kim M; Cohen, Juliet; Cox, Matt; Dormer, Myriam; Dunkley, Nyasha; Farley, Heather; Gambill, Jill; Goldstein, Mindy; Harris, Garry; Hopkinson, Melissa; James, Jean-Ann; Kidd, Susan; Knox, Pam; Liu, Yang; Matisoff, Daniel C; Meyer, Michael D; Mitchem, Jamie D; Moore, Katherine; Ono, Aspen J; Philipsborn, Jon; Sendall, Kerrie M; Shafiei, Fatemeh; Shepherd, Marshall; Teebken, Julia; Worley, Ashby N

    2018-05-23

    Climate change has far-reaching effects on human and ecological systems, requiring collaboration across sectors and disciplines to determine effective responses. To inform regional responses to climate change, decision-makers need credible and relevant information representing a wide swath of knowledge and perspectives. The southeastern U. S. State of Georgia is a valuable focal area for study because it contains multiple ecological zones that vary greatly in land use and economic activities, and it is vulnerable to diverse climate change impacts. We identified 40 important research questions that, if answered, could lay the groundwork for effective, science-based climate action in Georgia. Top research priorities were identified through a broad solicitation of candidate research questions (180 were received). A group of experts across sectors and disciplines gathered for a workshop to categorize, prioritize, and filter the candidate questions, identify missing topics, and rewrite questions. Participants then collectively chose the 40 most important questions. This cross-sectoral effort ensured the inclusion of a diversity of topics and questions (e.g., coastal hazards, agricultural production, ecosystem functioning, urban infrastructure, and human health) likely to be important to Georgia policy-makers, practitioners, and scientists. Several cross-cutting themes emerged, including the need for long-term data collection and consideration of at-risk Georgia citizens and communities. Workshop participants defined effective responses as those that take economic cost, environmental impacts, and social justice into consideration. Our research highlights the importance of collaborators across disciplines and sectors, and discussing challenges and opportunities that will require transdisciplinary solutions.

  15. Northern Peatland Shifts Under Changing Climate and Their Impact on Permafrost

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shur, Y.; Jorgenson, T.; Kanevskiy, M. Z.

    2014-12-01

    Formation of peatlands depends primarily on climate and its interactions with hydrology, soil thermal regimes, plant composition, and nutrients. A water balance with precipitation exceeding evaporation is necessary for their formation. The rate of peat accumulation also greatly depends on thermal resources. The prominent impact of the water balance and temperature on peatland formation is evident in the West Siberia Lowland. The rate of peat accumulation steadily increases from arctic tundra to moss tundra, to forest tundra, to northern taiga, and to southern taiga. This increase is a result in increase in air temperature and length of the growing season because all of these zones have water balance favorable for peat formation. Further to south, evaporation prevails over precipitation and peat formation occurs only in isolated areas. Climate change will redefine geographical distribution of climatic and vegetation zones. It is predicted that in arctic and subarctic regions the difference between precipitation and evaporation will increase and as a result these regions will remain favorable to peat accumulation. With increase of thermal resources, the rate of peat accumulation will also increase. The Alaska Arctic Coastal Plain is of a special interest because it has thousands of shallow lakes, which due to warming climate would shift from open waterbodies to peatlands through shoreline paludification and infilling. The accumulation of organic matter will likely turn open water into shore fens and bogs, and eventually to peat plateaus, as is occurring in many boreal landscapes. Expected impact on permafrost in arctic and subarctic regions will include rise of the permafrost table, thickening of the ice-rich intermediate layer with ataxitic (suspended) cryostructure, and replacement of frost boils with earth hummocks. In the contemporary continuous permafrost zone, permafrost formed as climate-driven will be transformed into climate-driven ecosystem protected

  16. Regional Climate Change Hotspots over Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anber, U.

    2009-04-01

    Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), is developed based on regional mean precipitation change, mean surface air temperature change, and change in precipitation and temperature interannual variability. The RCCI is a comparative index designed to identify the most responsive regions to climate change, or Hot- Spots. The RCCI is calculated for Seven land regions over North Africa and Arabian region from the latest set of climate change projections by 14 global climates for the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC emission scenarios. The concept of climate change can be approaches from the viewpoint of vulnerability or from that of climate response. In the former case a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region for which potential climate change impacts on the environment or different activity sectors can be particularly pronounced. In the other case, a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region whose climate is especially responsive to global change. In particular, the characterization of climate change response-based Hot-Spot can provide key information to identify and investigate climate change Hot-Spots based on results from multi-model ensemble of climate change simulations performed by modeling groups from around the world as contributions to the Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) is defined based on four variables: change in regional mean surface air temperature relative to the global average temperature change ( or Regional Warming Amplification Factor, RWAF ), change in mean regional precipitation ( , of present day value ), change in regional surface air temperature interannual variability ( ,of present day value), change in regional precipitation interannual variability ( , of present day value ). In the definition of the RCCI it is important to include quantities other than mean change because often mean changes are not the only important factors for specific impacts. We thus also include inter annual

  17. A New Dimensionless Number for Redox Conditions within the Hyporheic Zone: Morphological and Biogeochemical Controls

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marzadri, A.; Tonina, D.; Bellin, A.

    2012-12-01

    We introduce a new Damköhler number, Da, to quantify the biogeochemical status of the hyporheic zone and to upscale local hyporheic processes to reach scale. Da is defined as the ratio between the median hyporheic residence time, τup,50, which is a representative time scale of the hyporheic flow, and a representative time scale of biogeochemical reactions, which we define as the time τlim needed to consume dissolved oxygen to a prescribed threshold concentration below which reducing reactions are activated: Da = τup,50/τlim. This approach accounts for streambed topography and surface hydraulics via the hyporheic residence time and biogeochemical reaction via the time limit τlim. Da can readily evaluate the redox status of the hyporheic zone. Values of Da larger than 1 indicate prevailing anaerobic conditions, whereas values smaller than 1 prevailing aerobic conditions. This new Damköhler number can quantify the efficiency of hyporheic zone in transforming dissolved inorganic nitrogen species such as ammonium and nitrate, whose transformation depends on the redox condition of the hyporheic zone. We define a particular value of Da, Das, that indicates when the hyporheic zone is a source or a sink of nitrate. This index depends only on the relative abundance of ammonium and nitrate. The approach can be applied to any hyporheic zone of which the median hyporheic residence time is known. Application to streams with pool-riffle morphology shows that Da increases passing from small to large streams implying that the fraction of the hyporheic zone in anaerobic conditions increases with stream size.

  18. BREEDING AND GENETICS SYMPOSIUM: Climate change and selective breeding in aquaculture.

    PubMed

    Sae-Lim, P; Kause, A; Mulder, H A; Olesen, I

    2017-04-01

    Aquaculture is the fastest growing food production sector and it contributes significantly to global food security. Based on Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, aquaculture production must increase significantly to meet the future global demand for aquatic foods in 2050. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and FAO, climate change may result in global warming, sea level rise, changes of ocean productivity, freshwater shortage, and more frequent extreme climate events. Consequently, climate change may affect aquaculture to various extents depending on climatic zones, geographical areas, rearing systems, and species farmed. There are 2 major challenges for aquaculture caused by climate change. First, the current fish, adapted to the prevailing environmental conditions, may be suboptimal under future conditions. Fish species are often poikilothermic and, therefore, may be particularly vulnerable to temperature changes. This will make low sensitivity to temperature more important for fish than for livestock and other terrestrial species. Second, climate change may facilitate outbreaks of existing and new pathogens or parasites. To cope with the challenges above, 3 major adaptive strategies are identified. First, general 'robustness' will become a key trait in aquaculture, whereby fish will be less vulnerable to current and new diseases while at the same time thriving in a wider range of temperatures. Second, aquaculture activities, such as input power, transport, and feed production contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. Selection for feed efficiency as well as defining a breeding goal that minimizes greenhouse gas emissions will reduce impacts of aquaculture on climate change. Finally, the limited adoption of breeding programs in aquaculture is a major concern. This implies inefficient use of resources for feed, water, and land. Consequently, the carbon footprint per kg fish produced is greater than when fish from

  19. Building America Top Innovations 2012: Building Science-Based Climate Maps

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    none,

    2013-01-01

    This Building America Top Innovations profile describes the Building America-developed climate zone map, which serves as a consistent framework for energy-efficiency requirements in the national model energy code starting with the 2004 IECC Supplement and the ASHRAE 90.1 2004 edition. The map also provides a critical foundation for climate-specific guidance in the widely disseminated EEBA Builder Guides and Building America Best Practice Guides.

  20. Managing forest landscapes for climate change. Chapter 3.

    Treesearch

    Thomas R. Crow

    2008-01-01

    Climate change is the defining issue of the day and probably for many subsequent generations of resource managers. Although the public and therefore the policymakers have been slow in grasping the far-reaching consequences of climate change on our social and economic institutions, they are now desperately seeking options for dealing with novel climates, ecological...

  1. Global climate shocks to agriculture from 1950 - 2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jackson, N. D.; Konar, M.; Debaere, P.; Sheffield, J.

    2016-12-01

    Climate shocks represent a major disruption to crop yields and agricultural production, yet a consistent and comprehensive database of agriculturally relevant climate shocks does not exist. To this end, we conduct a spatially and temporally disaggregated analysis of climate shocks to agriculture from 1950-2015 using a new gridded dataset. We quantify the occurrence and magnitude of climate shocks for all global agricultural areas during the growing season using a 0.25-degree spatial grid and daily time scale. We include all major crops and both temperature and precipitation extremes in our analysis. Critically, we evaluate climate shocks to all potential agricultural areas to improve projections within our time series. To do this, we use Global Agro-Ecological Zones maps from the Food and Agricultural Organization, the Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing dataset, and crop calendars from Sacks et al. (2010). We trace the dynamic evolution of climate shocks to agriculture, evaluate the spatial heterogeneity in agriculturally relevant climate shocks, and identify the crops and regions that are most prone to climate shocks.

  2. Optimized square Fresnel zone plates for microoptics applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rico-García, José María; Salgado-Remacha, Francisco Javier; Sanchez-Brea, Luis Miguel; Alda, Javier

    2009-06-01

    Polygonal Fresnel zone plates with a low number of sides have deserved attention in micro and nanoptics, because they can be straightforwardly integrated in photonic devices, and, at the same time, they represent a balance between the high-focusing performance of a circular zone plate and the easiness of fabrication at micro and nano-scales of polygons. Among them, the most representative family are Square Fresnel Zone Plates (SFZP). In this work, we propose two different customized designs of SFZP for optical wavelengths. Both designs are based on the optimization of a SFZP to perform as close as possible as a usual Fresnel Zone Plate. In the first case, the criterion followed to compute it is the minimization of the difference between the area covered by the angular sector of the zone of the corresponding circular plate and the one covered by the polygon traced on the former. Such a requirement leads to a customized polygon-like Fresnel zone. The simplest one is a square zone with a pattern of phases repeating each five zones. On the other hand, an alternative SFZP can be designed guided by the same criterion but with a new restriction. In this case, the distance between the borders of different zones remains unaltered. A comparison between the two lenses is carried out. The irradiance at focus is computed for both and suitable merit figures are defined to account for the difference between them.

  3. Beyond the classic thermoneutral zone

    PubMed Central

    Kingma, Boris RM; Frijns, Arjan JH; Schellen, Lisje; van Marken Lichtenbelt, Wouter D

    2014-01-01

    The thermoneutral zone is defined as the range of ambient temperatures where the body can maintain its core temperature solely through regulating dry heat loss, i.e., skin blood flow. A living body can only maintain its core temperature when heat production and heat loss are balanced. That means that heat transport from body core to skin must equal heat transport from skin to the environment. This study focuses on what combinations of core and skin temperature satisfy the biophysical requirements of being in the thermoneutral zone for humans. Moreover, consequences are considered of changes in insulation and adding restrictions such as thermal comfort (i.e. driver for thermal behavior). A biophysical model was developed that calculates heat transport within a body, taking into account metabolic heat production, tissue insulation, and heat distribution by blood flow and equates that to heat loss to the environment, considering skin temperature, ambient temperature and other physical parameters. The biophysical analysis shows that the steady-state ambient temperature range associated with the thermoneutral zone does not guarantee that the body is in thermal balance at basal metabolic rate per se. Instead, depending on the combination of core temperature, mean skin temperature and ambient temperature, the body may require significant increases in heat production or heat loss to maintain stable core temperature. Therefore, the definition of the thermoneutral zone might need to be reformulated. Furthermore, after adding restrictions on skin temperature for thermal comfort, the ambient temperature range associated with thermal comfort is smaller than the thermoneutral zone. This, assuming animals seek thermal comfort, suggests that thermal behavior may be initiated already before the boundaries of the thermoneutral zone are reached. PMID:27583296

  4. Dengue burden in India: recent trends and importance of climatic parameters

    PubMed Central

    Mutheneni, Srinivasa Rao; Morse, Andrew P; Caminade, Cyril; Upadhyayula, Suryanaryana Murty

    2017-01-01

    For the past ten years, the number of dengue cases has gradually increased in India. Dengue is driven by complex interactions among host, vector and virus that are influenced by climatic factors. In the present study, we focused on the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) and its variability in different climatic zones of India. The EIP was calculated by using daily and monthly mean temperatures for the states of Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Kerala. Among the studied states, a faster/low EIP in Kerala (8–15 days at 30.8 and 23.4 °C) and a generally slower/high EIP in Punjab (5.6–96.5 days at 35 and 0 °C) were simulated with daily temperatures. EIPs were calculated for different seasons, and Kerala showed the lowest EIP during the monsoon period. In addition, a significant association between dengue cases and precipitation was also observed. The results suggest that temperature is important in virus development in different climatic regions and may be useful in understanding spatio-temporal variations in dengue risk. Climate-based disease forecasting models in India should be refined and tailored for different climatic zones, instead of use of a standard model. PMID:28790459

  5. GIS-Mapping and Statistical Analyses to Identify Climate-Vulnerable Communities and Populations Exposed to Superfund Sites

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change-related cumulative health risks are expected to be disproportionately greater for overburdened communities, due to differential proximity and exposures to chemical sources and flood zones. Communities and populations vulnerable to climate change-associated impacts ...

  6. Multiple-scale proximal sensor and remote imagery technology for sustaining agricultural productivity during climate change

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Changes in climatic patterns have had dramatic influence on agricultural areas worldwide, particularly in irrigated arid-zone agricultural areas subjected to recurring drought, such as California’s San Joaquin Valley. Climate change has impacted water availability, which subsequently has impacted so...

  7. Disaggregating Tropical Disease Prevalence by Climatic and Vegetative Zones within Tropical West Africa

    PubMed Central

    Beckley, Carl S.; Shaban, Salisu; Palmer, Guy H.; Hudak, Andrew T.; Noh, Susan M.; Futse, James E.

    2016-01-01

    Tropical infectious disease prevalence is dependent on many socio-cultural determinants. However, rainfall and temperature frequently underlie overall prevalence, particularly for vector-borne diseases. As a result these diseases have increased prevalence in tropical as compared to temperate regions. Specific to tropical Africa, the tendency to incorrectly infer that tropical diseases are uniformly prevalent has been partially overcome with solid epidemiologic data. This finer resolution data is important in multiple contexts, including understanding risk, predictive value in disease diagnosis, and population immunity. We hypothesized that within the context of a tropical climate, vector-borne pathogen prevalence would significantly differ according to zonal differences in rainfall, temperature, relative humidity and vegetation condition. We then determined if these environmental data were predictive of pathogen prevalence. First we determined the prevalence of three major pathogens of cattle, Anaplasma marginale, Babesia bigemina and Theileria spp, in the three vegetation zones where cattle are predominantly raised in Ghana: Guinea savannah, semi-deciduous forest, and coastal savannah. The prevalence of A. marginale was 63%, 26% for Theileria spp and 2% for B. bigemina. A. marginale and Theileria spp. were significantly more prevalent in the coastal savannah as compared to either the Guinea savanna or the semi-deciduous forest, supporting acceptance of the first hypothesis. To test the predictive power of environmental variables, the data over a three year period were considered in best subsets multiple linear regression models predicting prevalence of each pathogen. Corrected Akaike Information Criteria (AICc) were assigned to the alternative models to compare their utility. Competitive models for each response were averaged using AICc weights. Rainfall was most predictive of pathogen prevalence, and EVI also contributed to A. marginale and B. bigemina prevalence

  8. Disaggregating Tropical Disease Prevalence by Climatic and Vegetative Zones within Tropical West Africa.

    PubMed

    Beckley, Carl S; Shaban, Salisu; Palmer, Guy H; Hudak, Andrew T; Noh, Susan M; Futse, James E

    2016-01-01

    Tropical infectious disease prevalence is dependent on many socio-cultural determinants. However, rainfall and temperature frequently underlie overall prevalence, particularly for vector-borne diseases. As a result these diseases have increased prevalence in tropical as compared to temperate regions. Specific to tropical Africa, the tendency to incorrectly infer that tropical diseases are uniformly prevalent has been partially overcome with solid epidemiologic data. This finer resolution data is important in multiple contexts, including understanding risk, predictive value in disease diagnosis, and population immunity. We hypothesized that within the context of a tropical climate, vector-borne pathogen prevalence would significantly differ according to zonal differences in rainfall, temperature, relative humidity and vegetation condition. We then determined if these environmental data were predictive of pathogen prevalence. First we determined the prevalence of three major pathogens of cattle, Anaplasma marginale, Babesia bigemina and Theileria spp, in the three vegetation zones where cattle are predominantly raised in Ghana: Guinea savannah, semi-deciduous forest, and coastal savannah. The prevalence of A. marginale was 63%, 26% for Theileria spp and 2% for B. bigemina. A. marginale and Theileria spp. were significantly more prevalent in the coastal savannah as compared to either the Guinea savanna or the semi-deciduous forest, supporting acceptance of the first hypothesis. To test the predictive power of environmental variables, the data over a three year period were considered in best subsets multiple linear regression models predicting prevalence of each pathogen. Corrected Akaike Information Criteria (AICc) were assigned to the alternative models to compare their utility. Competitive models for each response were averaged using AICc weights. Rainfall was most predictive of pathogen prevalence, and EVI also contributed to A. marginale and B. bigemina prevalence

  9. Shifting relative importance of climatic constraints on land surface phenology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garonna, Irene; de Jong, Rogier; Stöckli, Reto; Schmid, Bernhard; Schenkel, David; Schimel, David; Schaepman, Michael E.

    2018-02-01

    Land surface phenology (LSP), the study of seasonal dynamics of vegetated land surfaces from remote sensing, is a key indicator of global change, that both responds to and influences weather and climate. The effects of climatic changes on LSP depend on the relative importance of climatic constraints in specific regions—which are not well understood at global scale. Understanding the climatic constraints that underlie LSP is crucial for explaining climate change effects on global vegetation phenology. We used a combination of modelled and remotely-sensed vegetation activity records to quantify the interplay of three climatic constraints on land surface phenology (namely minimum temperature, moisture availability, and photoperiod), as well as the dynamic nature of these constraints. Our study examined trends and the relative importance of the three constrains at the start and the end of the growing season over eight global environmental zones, for the past three decades. Our analysis revealed widespread shifts in the relative importance of climatic constraints in the temperate and boreal biomes during the 1982-2011 period. These changes in the relative importance of the three climatic constraints, which ranged up to 8% since 1982 levels, varied with latitude and between start and end of the growing season. We found a reduced influence of minimum temperature on start and end of season in all environmental zones considered, with a biome-dependent effect on moisture and photoperiod constraints. For the end of season, we report that the influence of moisture has on average increased for both the temperate and boreal biomes over 8.99 million km2. A shifting relative importance of climatic constraints on LSP has implications both for understanding changes and for improving how they may be modelled at large scales.

  10. Hygrothermal Anaylsis of Wood-Frame Wall Assemblies in a Mixed-Humid Climate

    Treesearch

    Samuel V. Glass

    2013-01-01

    This study uses a one-dimensional hygrothermal model to investigate the moisture performance of 10 residential wood-frame wall assemblies in a representative mixed-humid climate location of Baltimore, Maryland (climate zone 4A). All the assemblies include oriented strandboard (OSB) sheathing and vinyl siding. The walls differ in stud cavity thickness, level of cavity...

  11. Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, L. H.; Collins, W. J.; Olivié, D. J. L.; Cherian, R.; Hodnebrog, Ø.; Myhre, G.; Quaas, J.

    2015-07-01

    Policies to control air quality focus on mitigating emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). On a local scale, these policies will have beneficial impacts on health and crop yields, by reducing particulate matter (PM) and surface ozone concentrations; however, the climate impacts of reducing emissions of SLCPs are less straightforward to predict. In this paper we consider a set of idealized, extreme mitigation strategies, in which the total anthropogenic emissions of individual SLCP emissions species are removed. This provides an upper bound on the potential climate impacts of such air quality strategies. We focus on evaluating the climate responses to changes in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol precursor species: black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulphur dioxide (SO2). We perform climate integrations with four fully coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCMs), and examine the effects on global and regional climate of removing the total land-based anthropogenic emissions of each of the three aerosol precursor species. We find that the SO2 emissions reductions lead to the strongest response, with all models showing an increase in surface temperature focussed in the Northern Hemisphere mid and (especially) high latitudes, and showing a corresponding increase in global mean precipitation. Changes in precipitation patterns are driven mostly by a northward shift in the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone), consistent with the hemispherically asymmetric warming pattern driven by the emissions changes. The BC and OC emissions reductions give a much weaker response, and there is some disagreement between models in the sign of the climate responses to these perturbations. These differences between models are due largely to natural variability in sea-ice extent, circulation patterns and cloud changes. This large natural variability component to the signal when the ocean circulation and sea-ice are

  12. Landsat Surface Reflectance Climate Data Records

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    ,

    2014-01-01

    Landsat Surface Reflectance Climate Data Records (CDRs) are high level Landsat data products that support land surface change studies. Climate Data Records, as defined by the National Research Council, are a time series of measurements with sufficient length, consistency, and continuity to identify climate variability and change. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is using the valuable 40-year Landsat archive to create CDRs that can be used to document changes to Earth’s terrestrial environment.

  13. The lag effects and vulnerabilities of temperature effects on cardiovascular disease mortality in a subtropical climate zone in China.

    PubMed

    Huang, Jixia; Wang, Jinfeng; Yu, Weiwei

    2014-04-11

    This research quantifies the lag effects and vulnerabilities of temperature effects on cardiovascular disease in Changsha--a subtropical climate zone of China. A Poisson regression model within a distributed lag nonlinear models framework was used to examine the lag effects of cold- and heat-related CVD mortality. The lag effect for heat-related CVD mortality was just 0-3 days. In contrast, we observed a statistically significant association with 10-25 lag days for cold-related CVD mortality. Low temperatures with 0-2 lag days increased the mortality risk for those ≥65 years and females. For all ages, the cumulative effects of cold-related CVD mortality was 6.6% (95% CI: 5.2%-8.2%) for 30 lag days while that of heat-related CVD mortality was 4.9% (95% CI: 2.0%-7.9%) for 3 lag days. We found that in Changsha city, the lag effect of hot temperatures is short while the lag effect of cold temperatures is long. Females and older people were more sensitive to extreme hot and cold temperatures than males and younger people.

  14. Combining satellite derived phenology with climate data for climate change impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivits, E.; Cherlet, M.; Tóth, G.; Sommer, S.; Mehl, W.; Vogt, J.; Micale, F.

    2012-05-01

    The projected influence of climate change on the timing and volume of phytomass production is expected to affect a number of ecosystem services. In order to develop coherent and locally effective adaptation and mitigation strategies, spatially explicit information on the observed changes is needed. Long-term variations of the vegetative growing season in different environmental zones of Europe for 1982-2006 have been derived by analysing time series of GIMMS NDVI data. The associations of phenologically homogenous spatial clusters to time series of temperature and precipitation data were evaluated. North-east Europe showed a trend to an earlier and longer growing season, particularly in the northern Baltic areas. Despite the earlier greening up large areas of Europe exhibited rather stable season length indicating the shift of the entire growing season to an earlier period. The northern Mediterranean displayed a growing season shift towards later dates while some agglomerations of earlier and shorter growing season were also seen. The correlation of phenological time series with climate data shows a cause-and-effect relationship over the semi natural areas consistent with results in literature. Managed ecosystems however appear to have heterogeneous change pattern with less or no correlation to climatic trends. Over these areas climatic trends seemed to overlap in a complex manner with more pronounced effects of local biophysical conditions and/or land management practices. Our results underline the importance of satellite derived phenological observations to explain local nonconformities to climatic trends for climate change impact assessment.

  15. Developing an Agro-Ecological Zoning Model for Tumbleweed (Salsola kali), as Energy Crop in Drylands of Argentina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Falasca, Silvia; Pitta-Alvarez, Sandra; Ulberich, Ana

    2016-12-01

    Salsola kali is considered extremely valuable as an energy crop worldwide because it adapts easily to environments with strong abiotic stresses (hydric, saline and alkaline) and produces large amounts of biomass in drylands. This species is categorized as an important weed in Argentina. The aim of this work was to design an agro-ecological zoning model for tumbleweed in Argentina, employing a Geography Information System. Based on the bioclimatic requirements for the species and the climatic data for Argentina (1981-2010 period), an agro-climatic suitability map was drawn. This map was superimposed on the saline and alkaline soil maps delineated by the Food and Agriculture Organization for dry climates, generating the agro-ecological zoning on a scale of 1 : 500 000. This zoning revealed very suitable and suitable cultivation areas on halomorphic soils. The potential growing areas extend from N of the Salta province (approximately 22° S) to the Santa Cruz province (50° S). The use of tumbleweed on halomorphic soils under semi-arid to arid conditions, for the dual purpose of forage use and source of lignocellulosic material for bioenergy, could improve agricultural productivity in these lands. Furthermore, it could also contribute to their environmental sustainability, since the species can be used to reclaim saline soils over the years. Based on international bibliography, the authors outlined an agro-ecological zoning model. This model may be applied to any part of the world, using the agro-ecological limits presented here.

  16. Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions.

    PubMed

    Molina, Mario; Zaelke, Durwood; Sarma, K Madhava; Andersen, Stephen O; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran; Kaniaru, Donald

    2009-12-08

    Current emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) have already committed the planet to an increase in average surface temperature by the end of the century that may be above the critical threshold for tipping elements of the climate system into abrupt change with potentially irreversible and unmanageable consequences. This would mean that the climate system is close to entering if not already within the zone of "dangerous anthropogenic interference" (DAI). Scientific and policy literature refers to the need for "early," "urgent," "rapid," and "fast-action" mitigation to help avoid DAI and abrupt climate changes. We define "fast-action" to include regulatory measures that can begin within 2-3 years, be substantially implemented in 5-10 years, and produce a climate response within decades. We discuss strategies for short-lived non-CO(2) GHGs and particles, where existing agreements can be used to accomplish mitigation objectives. Policy makers can amend the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with high global warming potential. Other fast-action strategies can reduce emissions of black carbon particles and precursor gases that lead to ozone formation in the lower atmosphere, and increase biosequestration, including through biochar. These and other fast-action strategies may reduce the risk of abrupt climate change in the next few decades by complementing cuts in CO(2) emissions.

  17. Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khomenko, Inna

    2016-04-01

    Transportation not only affects climate, but are strongly influenced with the climate conditions, and key hubs of the transportation sector are cities. Transportation decision makers have an opportunity now to prepare for projected climate changes owing to development of emission scenarios. In the study impact of climate change on operation of road transport along highways are analyzed on the basis of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Data contains series of daily mean and maximum temperature, daily liquid (or mixed) and solid precipitation, daily mean relative humidity and daily mean and maximum wind speed, obtained for the period of 2011 to 2050 for 8 cities (Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Odesa, Ternopil, Vinnytsia and Voznesensk) situated down the highways. The highways of 'Odesa-Voznesensk-Dnipropetrovsk-Kharkiv' and 'Dnipropetrovsk-Kirovohrad-Vinnytsia-Khmelnytskyi-Ternopil' are considered. The first highway goes across the Black Sea Lowland, the Dnieper Upland and Dnieper Lowland, the other passes through the Dnieper and Volhynia-Podillia Uplands. The both highways are situated in steppe and forest-steppe native zones. For both scenarios, significant climate warming is registered; it is revealed in significant increase of average monthly and yearly temperature by 2-3°C in all cities in questions, and also, in considerable increment of frequency of days with maximum temperature higher than +30 and 35°C, except Kharkiv, where decrease number of days with such temperatures is observed. On the contrary, number of days with daily mean temperature being equal to or below 0°C decreases in the south of steppe, is constant in the north of steppe and increases in the forest-steppe native zone. Extreme negative temperatures don't occur in the steppe zone, but takes place in the forest-steppe zone. Results obtained shows that road surface must hold in extreme maximum temperature, and in the forest-steppe zone hazards of extreme negative temperatures

  18. Applications of ISES for coastal zone studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bartlett, D. S.

    1990-01-01

    In contrast to the discipline- and process-oriented topics addressed, coastal zone studies are defined geographically by the special circumstances inherent in the interface between land and water. The characteristics of coastal zones which make them worthy of separate consideration are: (1) the dynamic nature of natural and anthropogenic processes taking place; (2) the relatively restricted spatial domain of the narrow land/water interface; and (3) the large proportion of the Earth's population living within coastal zones, and the resulting extreme pressure on natural and human resources. These characteristics place special constraints and priorities on remote sensing applications, even though the applications themselves bear close relation to those addressed by other elements of this report (e.g., oceans, ice, vegetation/land use). The discussion which follows first describes the suite of remote sensing activities relevant to coastal zone studies. Potential Information Sciences Experiment System (ISES) experiments will then be addressed within two general categories: applications of real-time data transmission and applications of onboard data acquisition and processing.

  19. Forests in a water limited world under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mátyás, Csaba; Sun, Ge

    2014-08-01

    The debate on ecological and climatic benefits of planted forests at the sensitive dry edge of the closed forest belt (i.e. at the ‘xeric limits’) is still unresolved. Forests sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide, accumulate biomass, control water erosion and dust storms, reduce river sedimentation, and mitigate small floods. However, planting trees in areas previously dominated by grassland or cropland can dramatically alter the energy and water balances at multiple scales. The forest/grassland transition zone is especially vulnerable to projected drastic temperature and precipitation shifts and growing extremes due to its high ecohydrological sensitivity. We investigated some of the relevant aspects of the ecological and climatic role of forests and potential impacts of climate change at the dryland margins of the temperate-continental zone using case studies from China, the United States and SE Europe (Hungary). We found that, contrary to popular expectations, the effects of forest cover on regional climate might be limited and the influence of forestation on water resources might be negative. Planted forests generally reduce stream flow and lower groundwater table level because of higher water use than previous land cover types. Increased evaporation potential due to global warming and/or extreme drought events is likely to reduce areas that are appropriate for tree growth and forest establishment. Ecologically conscious forest management and forestation planning should be adjusted to the local, projected hydrologic and climatic conditions, and should also consider non-forest alternative land uses.

  20. From climate model ensembles to climate change impacts and adaptation: A case study of water resource management in the southwest of England

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lopez, Ana; Fung, Fai; New, Mark; Watts, Glenn; Weston, Alan; Wilby, Robert L.

    2009-08-01

    The majority of climate change impacts and adaptation studies so far have been based on at most a few deterministic realizations of future climate, usually representing different emissions scenarios. Large ensembles of climate models are increasingly available either as ensembles of opportunity or perturbed physics ensembles, providing a wealth of additional data that is potentially useful for improving adaptation strategies to climate change. Because of the novelty of this ensemble information, there is little previous experience of practical applications or of the added value of this information for impacts and adaptation decision making. This paper evaluates the value of perturbed physics ensembles of climate models for understanding and planning public water supply under climate change. We deliberately select water resource models that are already used by water supply companies and regulators on the assumption that uptake of information from large ensembles of climate models will be more likely if it does not involve significant investment in new modeling tools and methods. We illustrate the methods with a case study on the Wimbleball water resource zone in the southwest of England. This zone is sufficiently simple to demonstrate the utility of the approach but with enough complexity to allow a variety of different decisions to be made. Our research shows that the additional information contained in the climate model ensemble provides a better understanding of the possible ranges of future conditions, compared to the use of single-model scenarios. Furthermore, with careful presentation, decision makers will find the results from large ensembles of models more accessible and be able to more easily compare the merits of different management options and the timing of different adaptation. The overhead in additional time and expertise for carrying out the impacts analysis will be justified by the increased quality of the decision-making process. We remark that even

  1. Effects of adjusting cropping systems on utilization efficiency of climatic resources in Northeast China under future climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Jianping; Zhao, Junfang; Xu, Yanhong; Chu, Zheng; Mu, Jia; Zhao, Qian

    Quantitatively evaluating the effects of adjusting cropping systems on the utilization efficiency of climatic resources under climate change is an important task for assessing food security in China. To understand these effects, we used daily climate variables obtained from the regional climate model RegCM3 from 1981 to 2100 under the A1B scenario and crop observations from 53 agro-meteorological experimental stations from 1981 to 2010 in Northeast China. Three one-grade zones of cropping systems were divided by heat, water, topography and crop-type, including the semi-arid areas of the northeast and northwest (III), the one crop area of warm-cool plants in semi-humid plain or hilly regions of the northeast (IV), and the two crop area in irrigated farmland in the Huanghuaihai Plain (VI). An agro-ecological zone model was used to calculate climatic potential productivities. The effects of adjusting cropping systems on climate resource utilization in Northeast China under the A1B scenario were assessed. The results indicated that from 1981 to 2100 in the III, IV and VI areas, the planting boundaries of different cropping systems in Northeast China obviously shifted toward the north and the east based on comprehensively considering the heat and precipitation resources. However, due to high temperature stress, the climatic potential productivity of spring maize was reduced in the future. Therefore, adjusting the cropping system is an effective way to improve the climatic potential productivity and climate resource utilization. Replacing the one crop in one year model (spring maize) by the two crops in one year model (winter wheat and summer maize) significantly increased the total climatic potential productivity and average utilization efficiencies. During the periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, the average total climatic potential productivities of winter wheat and summer maize increased by 9.36%, 11.88% and 12.13% compared to that of spring maize

  2. Different regional climatic drivers of Holocene large wildfires in boreal forests of northeastern America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Remy, Cécile C.; Hély, Christelle; Blarquez, Olivier; Magnan, Gabriel; Bergeron, Yves; Lavoie, Martin; Ali, Adam A.

    2017-03-01

    Global warming could increase climatic instability and large wildfire activity in circumboreal regions, potentially impairing both ecosystem functioning and human health. However, links between large wildfire events and climatic and/or meteorological conditions are still poorly understood, partly because few studies have covered a wide range of past climate-fire interactions. We compared palaeofire and simulated climatic data over the last 7000 years to assess causes of large wildfire events in three coniferous boreal forest regions in north-eastern Canada. These regions span an east-west cline, from a hilly region influenced by the Atlantic Ocean currently dominated by Picea mariana and Abies balsamea to a flatter continental region dominated by Picea mariana and Pinus banksiana. The largest wildfires occurred across the entire study zone between 3000 and 1000 cal. BP. In western and central continental regions these events were triggered by increases in both the fire-season length and summer/spring temperatures, while in the eastern region close to the ocean they were likely responses to hydrological (precipitation/evapotranspiration) variability. The impact of climatic drivers on fire size varied spatially across the study zone, confirming that regional climate dynamics could modulate effects of global climate change on wildfire regimes.

  3. Integration and Typologies of Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australian Wheat Sheep Zones

    PubMed Central

    Huai, Jianjun

    2016-01-01

    Although the integrated indicator methods have become popular for assessing vulnerability to climate change, their proliferation has introduced a confusing array of scales and indicators that cause a science-policy gap. I argue for a clear adaptation pathway in an “integrative typology” of regional vulnerability that matches appropriate scales, optimal measurements and adaptive strategies in a six-dimensional and multi-level analysis framework of integration and typology inspired by the “5W1H” questions: “Who is concerned about how to adapt to the vulnerability of what to what in some place (where) at some time (when)?” Using the case of the vulnerability of wheat, barley and oats to drought in Australian wheat sheep zones during 1978–1999, I answer the “5W1H” questions through establishing the “six typologies” framework. I then optimize the measurement of vulnerability through contrasting twelve kinds of vulnerability scores with the divergence of crops yields from their regional mean. Through identifying the socioeconomic constraints, I propose seven generic types of crop-drought vulnerability and local adaptive strategy. Our results illustrate that the process of assessing vulnerability and selecting adaptations can be enhanced using a combination of integration, optimization and typology, which emphasize dynamic transitions and transformations between integration and typology. PMID:27670975

  4. Reanalysis of water and carbon cycle models at a critical zone observatory

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The Susquehanna Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory (SSHCZO) is a forested, hill-slope catchment located in the temperate-climate of central Pennsylvania with an extensive network of ground-based instrumentation for model testing and development. In this paper we discuss the use of multi-state fi...

  5. Microbial functional diversity alters the structure and sensitivity of oxygen deficient zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Penn, Justin; Weber, Thomas; Deutsch, Curtis

    2016-09-01

    Oxygen deficient zones (ODZs) below the ocean surface regulate marine productivity by removing bioavailable nitrogen (N). A complex microbial community mediates N loss, but the interplay of its diverse metabolisms is poorly understood. We present an ecosystem model of the North Pacific ODZ that reproduces observed chemical distributions yet predicts different ODZ structure, rates, and climatic sensitivity compared to traditional geochemical models. An emergent lower O2 limit for aerobic nitrification lies below the upper O2 threshold for anaerobic denitrification, creating a zone of microbial coexistence that causes a larger ODZ but slower total rates of N loss. The O2-dependent competition for the intermediate nitrite produces gradients in its oxidation versus reduction, anammox versus heterotrophic denitrification, and the net ecological stoichiometry of N loss. The latter effect implies that an externally driven ODZ expansion should favor communities that more efficiently remove N, increasing the sensitivity of the N cycle to climate change.

  6. Hydrologic refugia, plants, and climate change.

    PubMed

    McLaughlin, Blair C; Ackerly, David D; Klos, P Zion; Natali, Jennifer; Dawson, Todd E; Thompson, Sally E

    2017-08-01

    Climate, physical landscapes, and biota interact to generate heterogeneous hydrologic conditions in space and over time, which are reflected in spatial patterns of species distributions. As these species distributions respond to rapid climate change, microrefugia may support local species persistence in the face of deteriorating climatic suitability. Recent focus on temperature as a determinant of microrefugia insufficiently accounts for the importance of hydrologic processes and changing water availability with changing climate. Where water scarcity is a major limitation now or under future climates, hydrologic microrefugia are likely to prove essential for species persistence, particularly for sessile species and plants. Zones of high relative water availability - mesic microenvironments - are generated by a wide array of hydrologic processes, and may be loosely coupled to climatic processes and therefore buffered from climate change. Here, we review the mechanisms that generate mesic microenvironments and their likely robustness in the face of climate change. We argue that mesic microenvironments will act as species-specific refugia only if the nature and space/time variability in water availability are compatible with the ecological requirements of a target species. We illustrate this argument with case studies drawn from California oak woodland ecosystems. We posit that identification of hydrologic refugia could form a cornerstone of climate-cognizant conservation strategies, but that this would require improved understanding of climate change effects on key hydrologic processes, including frequently cryptic processes such as groundwater flow. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. The influence of climatic conditions on the heat balance of the human body

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blażejeczyk, Krzysztof; Krawczyk, Barbara

    1991-06-01

    The structure of heat exchange between the human body and its surroundings has been studied according to M.I. Budyko's model. Comparative measurements were carried out in the Polish Lakeland (maritime, temperate warm climate), in Central Mongolia (continental, temperate cool climate), and in the Kara Kum desert (dry subtropical climate). The results deal with the summer and early autumn seasons. The calculations indicate that the quantitative apportionment of various forms of heat exchange depend on specific weather conditions, which are typical for the distinguished climatic zones.

  8. Twin Convergence Zones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    NASA's QuikSCAT satellite has confirmed a 30-year old largely unproven theory that there are two areas near the equator where the winds converge year after year and drive ocean circulation south of the equator. By analyzing winds, QuikSCAT has found a year-round southern and northern Intertropical Convergence Zone. This find is important to climate modelers and weather forecasters because it provides more detail on how the oceans and atmosphere interact near the equator. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is the region that circles the Earth near the equator, where the trade winds of both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres come together. North of the equator, strong sun and warm water of the equator heats the air in the ITCZ, drawing air in from north and south and causing the air to rise. As the air rises it cools, releasing the accumulated moisture in an almost perpetual series of thunderstorms. Satellite data, however, has confirmed that there is an ITCZ north of the equator and a parallel ITCZ south of the equator. Variation in the location of the ITCZ is important to people around the world because it affects the north-south atmospheric circulation, which redistributes energy. It drastically affects rainfall in many equatorial nations, resulting in the wet and dry seasons of the tropics rather than the cold and warm seasons of higher latitudes. Longer term changes in the ITCZ can result in severe droughts or flooding in nearby areas. 'The double ITCZ is usually only identified in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans on a limited and seasonal basis,' said Timothy Liu, of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, Calif., and lead researcher on the project. In the eastern Pacific Ocean, the southern ITCZ is usually seen springtime. In the western Atlantic Ocean, the southern ITCZ was recently clearly identified only in the summertime. However, QuikSCAT's wind data has seen the southern ITCZ in all seasons across the

  9. Farmer's response to changing climate in North East India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De, Utpal Kumar

    2015-02-01

    Diversification of land use in the cultivation of various crops provides an alternative way to moderate the climate risk. By choosing alternative crops that are resilient to various weather parameters, farmers can reduce the crop damage and achieve optimum output from their limited land resources. Apart from other adaptation measures, crop diversity can reflect farmers' response towards changing climate uncertainty. This paper tries to examine the changing climatic condition through spatio-temporal variation of two important weather variables (precipitation and temperature) in the largest North-East Indian state, Assam, since 1950. It is examined by the variation in crop diversification index. We have used (1) Herfindahl Index for measuring degree of diversification and (2) locational quotient for measuring the changes in the regional crop concentration. The results show that, in almost all the districts, crop specialization has been taking place slowly and that happened mostly in the last phase of our study. The hilly and backward districts recorded more diversification but towards lower value crops. It goes against the normal feature of crop diversification where farmers diversify in favour of high value crops. Employing ordinary least squares method and/or Fixed Effect model, irrigation is found to have significant impact on crop diversification; while the flood plain zones and hill zones are found to have better progress in this regard, which has been due to the survival necessity of poor farmers living the zone. Thus crop diversity does not reflect very significant response from the farmers' side towards changing weather factors (except rainfall) though they have significant impact on the productivity of various crops, and thus profitability. The study thus suggests the necessity for rapid and suitable diversification as alternative climate change mitigation in the long run.

  10. Seismic fault zone trapped noise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hillers, G.; Campillo, M.; Ben-Zion, Y.; Roux, P.

    2014-07-01

    Systematic velocity contrasts across and within fault zones can lead to head and trapped waves that provide direct information on structural units that are important for many aspects of earthquake and fault mechanics. Here we construct trapped waves from the scattered seismic wavefield recorded by a fault zone array. The frequency-dependent interaction between the ambient wavefield and the fault zone environment is studied using properties of the noise correlation field. A critical frequency fc ≈ 0.5 Hz defines a threshold above which the in-fault scattered wavefield has increased isotropy and coherency compared to the ambient noise. The increased randomization of in-fault propagation directions produces a wavefield that is trapped in a waveguide/cavity-like structure associated with the low-velocity damage zone. Dense spatial sampling allows the resolution of a near-field focal spot, which emerges from the superposition of a collapsing, time reversed wavefront. The shape of the focal spot depends on local medium properties, and a focal spot-based fault normal distribution of wave speeds indicates a ˜50% velocity reduction consistent with estimates from a far-field travel time inversion. The arrival time pattern of a synthetic correlation field can be tuned to match properties of an observed pattern, providing a noise-based imaging tool that can complement analyses of trapped ballistic waves. The results can have wide applicability for investigating the internal properties of fault damage zones, because mechanisms controlling the emergence of trapped noise have less limitations compared to trapped ballistic waves.

  11. Climate change, agricultural insecticide exposure, and risk for freshwater communities.

    PubMed

    Kattwinkel, Mira; Kühne, Jan-Valentin; Foit, Kaarina; Liess, Matthias

    2011-09-01

    Climate change exerts direct effects on ecosystems but has additional indirect effects due to changes in agricultural practice. These include the increased use of pesticides, changes in the areas that are cultivated, and changes in the crops cultivated. It is well known that pesticides, and in particular insecticides, affect aquatic ecosystems adversely. To implement effective mitigation measures it is necessary to identify areas that are affected currently and those that will be affected in the future. As a consequence, we predicted potential exposure to insecticide (insecticide runoff potential, RP) under current conditions (1990) and under a model scenario of future climate and land use (2090) using a spatially explicit model on a continental scale, with a focus on Europe. Space-for-time substitution was used to predict future levels of insecticide application, intensity of agricultural land use, and cultivated crops. To assess the indirect effects of climate change, evaluation of the risk of insecticide exposure was based on a trait-based, climate-insensitive indicator system (SPEAR, SPEcies At Risk). To this end, RP and landscape characteristics that are relevant for the recovery of affected populations were combined to estimate the ecological risk (ER) of insecticides for freshwater communities. We predicted a strong increase in the application of, and aquatic exposure to, insecticides under the future scenario, especially in central and northern Europe. This, in turn, will result in a severe increase in ER in these regions. Hence, the proportion of stream sites adjacent to arable land that do not meet the requirements for good ecological status as defined by the EU Water Framework Directive will increase (from 33% to 39% for the EU-25 countries), in particular in the Scandinavian and Baltic countries (from 6% to 19%). Such spatially explicit mapping of risk enables the planning of adaptation and mitigation strategies including vegetated buffer strips and

  12. Linking the Local Climate Zones and Land Surface Temperature to Investigate the Surface Urban Heat Island, a Case Study of San Antonio, Texas, U.S.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Chunhong

    2018-04-01

    The Local Climate Zones (LCZs) concept was initiated in 2012 to improve the documentation of Urban Heat Island (UHI) observations. Despite the indispensable role and initial aim of LCZs concept in metadata reporting for atmospheric UHI research, its role in surface UHI investigation also needs to be emphasized. This study incorporated LCZs concept to study surface UHI effect for San Antonio, Texas. LCZ map was developed by a GIS-based LCZs classification scheme with the aid of airborne Lidar dataset and other freely available GIS data. Then, the summer LST was calculated based Landsat imagery, which was used to analyse the relations between LST and LCZs and the statistical significance of the differences of LST among the typical LCZs, in order to test if LCZs are able to efficiently facilitate SUHI investigation. The linkage of LCZs and land surface temperature (LST) indicated that the LCZs mapping can be used to compare and investigate the SUHI. Most of the pairs of LCZs illustrated significant differences in average LSTs with considerable significance. The intra-urban temperature comparison among different urban classes contributes to investigate the influence of heterogeneous urban morphology on local climate formation.

  13. Climate forcings in the industrial era.

    PubMed

    Hansen, J E; Sato, M; Lacis, A; Ruedy, R; Tegen, I; Matthews, E

    1998-10-27

    The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

  14. Climate Forcings in the Industrial Era

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Lacis, Andrew; Ruedy, Reto; Tegen, Ina; Matthews, Elaine

    1998-01-01

    The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is-that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

  15. Climate forcings in the Industrial era

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Lacis, Andrew; Ruedy, Reto; Tegen, Ina; Matthews, Elaine

    1998-01-01

    The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular “business as usual” or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue. PMID:9788985

  16. Climate Forcing in the Industrial Era

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E.

    1998-01-01

    The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

  17. A new climatic classification of afforestation in Three-North regions of China with multi-source remote sensing data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Xiao; Zhu, Jiaojun

    2017-01-01

    Afforestation and reforestation activities achieve high attention at the policy agenda as measures for carbon sequestration in order to mitigate climate change. The Three-North Shelter Forest Program, the largest ecological afforestation program worldwide, was launched in 1978 and will last until 2050 in the Three-North regions (accounting for 42.4 % of China's territory). Shelter forests of the Three-North Shelter Forest Program have exhibited severe decline after planting in 1978 due to lack of detailed climatic classification. Besides, a comprehensive assessment of climate adaptation for the current shelter forests was lacking. In this study, the aridity index determined by precipitation and reference evapotranspiration was employed to classify climatic zones for the afforestation program. The precipitation and reference evapotranspiration with 1-km resolution were estimated based on data from the tropical rainfall measuring mission and moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer, respectively. Then, the detailed climatic classification for the afforestation program was obtained based on the relationship between the different vegetation types and the aridity index. The shelter forests in 2008 were derived from Landsat TM in the Three-North regions. In addition, climatic zones and shelter forests were corrected by comparing with natural vegetation map and field surveys. By overlaying the shelter forests on the climatic zones, we found that 16.30 % coniferous forests, 8.21 % broadleaved forests, 2.03 % mixed conifer-broadleaved forests, and 10.86 % shrubs were not in strict accordance with the climate conditions. These results open new perspectives for potential use of remote sensing techniques for afforestation management.

  18. Ecohydrological Consequences of Critical Zone Structure in the Franciscan Formation, Northern California Coast Ranges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hahm, W. J.; Dietrich, W. E.; Dawson, T. E.; Lovill, S.; Rempe, D.

    2016-12-01

    Water availability regulates ecosystem function, particularly in seasonally dry climates where lack of moisture in the growing season acts as an ecological bottleneck. Water within hillslopes is extracted by plants during transpiration and also delivered to streams to support baseflow for riparian ecosystems and human use. How water is stored and then released from hillslopes is strongly influenced by the structure of the critical zone (CZ) that emerges from the complex interaction of lithology, climate, and tectonics. Here we show how contrasting CZ development has extreme ecohydrological consequences in the seasonally dry climate of the Northern California Coast Ranges. To explore how the CZ transmits and stores water, we studied hydrologic dynamics at two sites with similar climate across belts of the Franciscan Formation in the Eel River CZO. We monitored plant water use, precipitation inputs and stream runoff, groundwater and vadose zone moisture dynamics and documented near-surface hydraulic conductivity and runoff-generation processes. We investigated CZ structure via boreholes and geophysical methods. We find that CZ thickness determines the extent to which hillslopes `shed' or `store' wet season precipitation, and fundamentally controls the structure of plant communities and summer low-flows. In a climate where winter precipitation regularly exceeds 2000 mm, the thin CZ of the sheared argillite matrix Central belt rapidly fills, resulting in wet-season saturation overland flow that drives flashy winter runoff in channels that then quickly run dry in the early summer. The maximum unsaturated moisture storage of approximately 200 mm is sufficient to host an ecologically diverse yet sparsely forested oak savanna. In contrast, the thick CZ of the interbedded argillite and greywacke Coastal belt stores up to 600 mm of winter precipitation in the unsaturated zone and a seasonal groundwater system within fractured bedrock provides year-round flow to channels

  19. Climate-physiographically differentiated Pan-European landslide susceptibility assessment using spatial multi-criteria evaluation and transnational landslide information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Günther, Andreas; Van Den Eeckhaut, Miet; Malet, Jean-Philippe; Reichenbach, Paola; Hervás, Javier

    2014-11-01

    With the adoption of the EU Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection in 2006, small-scale (1:1 M) assessments of threats affecting soils over Europe received increasing attention. As landslides have been recognized as one of eight threats requiring a Pan-European evaluation, we present an approach for landslide susceptibility evaluation at the continental scale over Europe. Unlike previous continental and global scale landslide susceptibility studies not utilizing spatial information on the events, we collected more than 102,000 landslide locations in 22 European countries. These landslides are heterogeneously distributed over Europe, but are indispensable for the evaluation and classification of Pan-European datasets used as spatial predictors, and the validation of the resulting assessments. For the analysis we subdivided the European territory into seven different climate-physiographical zones by combining morphometric and climatic data for terrain differentiation, and adding a coastal zone defined as a 1 km strip inland from the coastline. Landslide susceptibility modeling was performed for each zone using heuristic spatial multicriteria evaluations supported by analytical hierarchy processes, and validated with the inventory data using the receiver operating characteristics. In contrast to purely data-driven statistical modeling techniques, our semi-quantitative approach is capable to introduce expert knowledge into the analysis, which is indispensable considering quality and resolution of the input data, and incompleteness and bias in the inventory information. The reliability of the resulting susceptibility map ELSUS 1000 Version 1 (1 km resolution) was examined on an administrative terrain unit level in areas with landslide information and through the comparison with available national susceptibility zonations. These evaluations suggest that although the ELSUS 1000 is capable for a correct synoptic prediction of landslide susceptibility in the majority of the

  20. Long-term soil transplant simulating climate change with latitude significantly alters microbial temporal turnover.

    PubMed

    Liang, Yuting; Jiang, Yuji; Wang, Feng; Wen, Chongqing; Deng, Ye; Xue, Kai; Qin, Yujia; Yang, Yunfeng; Wu, Liyou; Zhou, Jizhong; Sun, Bo

    2015-12-01

    To understand soil microbial community stability and temporal turnover in response to climate change, a long-term soil transplant experiment was conducted in three agricultural experiment stations over large transects from a warm temperate zone (Fengqiu station in central China) to a subtropical zone (Yingtan station in southern China) and a cold temperate zone (Hailun station in northern China). Annual soil samples were collected from these three stations from 2005 to 2011, and microbial communities were analyzed by sequencing microbial 16S ribosomal RNA gene amplicons using Illumina MiSeq technology. Our results revealed a distinctly differential pattern of microbial communities in both northward and southward transplantations, along with an increase in microbial richness with climate cooling and a corresponding decrease with climate warming. The microbial succession rate was estimated by the slope (w value) of linear regression of a log-transformed microbial community similarity with time (time-decay relationship). Compared with the low turnover rate of microbial communities in situ (w=0.046, P<0.001), the succession rate at the community level was significantly higher in the northward transplant (w=0.058, P<0.001) and highest in the southward transplant (w=0.094, P<0.001). Climate warming lead to a faster succession rate of microbial communities as well as lower species richness and compositional changes compared with in situ and climate cooling, which may be related to the high metabolic rates and intense competition under higher temperature. This study provides new insights into the impacts of climate change on the fundamental temporal scaling of soil microbial communities and microbial phylogenetic biodiversity.

  1. Long-term soil transplant simulating climate change with latitude significantly alters microbial temporal turnover

    PubMed Central

    Liang, Yuting; Jiang, Yuji; Wang, Feng; Wen, Chongqing; Deng, Ye; Xue, Kai; Qin, Yujia; Yang, Yunfeng; Wu, Liyou; Zhou, Jizhong; Sun, Bo

    2015-01-01

    To understand soil microbial community stability and temporal turnover in response to climate change, a long-term soil transplant experiment was conducted in three agricultural experiment stations over large transects from a warm temperate zone (Fengqiu station in central China) to a subtropical zone (Yingtan station in southern China) and a cold temperate zone (Hailun station in northern China). Annual soil samples were collected from these three stations from 2005 to 2011, and microbial communities were analyzed by sequencing microbial 16S ribosomal RNA gene amplicons using Illumina MiSeq technology. Our results revealed a distinctly differential pattern of microbial communities in both northward and southward transplantations, along with an increase in microbial richness with climate cooling and a corresponding decrease with climate warming. The microbial succession rate was estimated by the slope (w value) of linear regression of a log-transformed microbial community similarity with time (time–decay relationship). Compared with the low turnover rate of microbial communities in situ (w=0.046, P<0.001), the succession rate at the community level was significantly higher in the northward transplant (w=0.058, P<0.001) and highest in the southward transplant (w=0.094, P<0.001). Climate warming lead to a faster succession rate of microbial communities as well as lower species richness and compositional changes compared with in situ and climate cooling, which may be related to the high metabolic rates and intense competition under higher temperature. This study provides new insights into the impacts of climate change on the fundamental temporal scaling of soil microbial communities and microbial phylogenetic biodiversity. PMID:25989371

  2. A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet

    2013-04-01

    Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change

  3. Progress Report on the US Critical Zone Observatory Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barrera, E. C.

    2014-12-01

    The Critical Zone Observatory (CZO) program supported by the National Science Foundation originated from the recommendation of the Earth Science community published in the National Research Council report "Basic Research Opportunities in Earth Sciences" (2001) to establish natural laboratories to study processes and systems of the Critical Zone - the surface and near-surface environment sustaining nearly all terrestrial life. After a number of critical zone community workshops to develop a science plan, the CZO program was initiated in 2007 with three sites and has now grown to 10 sites and a National Office, which coordinates research, education and outreach activities of the network. Several of the CZO sites are collocated with sites supported by the US Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) and the Long Term Agricultural Research (LTAR) programs, and the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). Future collaboration with additional sites of these networks will add to the potential to answer questions in a more comprehensive manner and in a larger regional scale about the critical zone form and function. At the international level, CZOs have been established in many countries and strong collaborations with the US program have been in place for many years. The next step is the development of a coordinated international program of critical zone research. The success of the CZO network of sites can be measured in transformative results that elucidate properties and processes controlling the critical zone and how the critical zone structure, stores and fluxes respond to climate and land use change. This understanding of the critical zone can be used to enhance resilience and sustainability, and restore ecosystem function. Thus, CZO science can address major societal challenges. The US CZO network is a facility open to research of the critical zone community at large. Scientific data and information about the US program are available at www.criticalzone.org.

  4. Transparent multi-zone crystal growth furnace and method for controlling the same

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Batur, Celal (Inventor); Bennett, Robert J. (Inventor); Duval, Walter (Inventor)

    2000-01-01

    A crystal growth system, comprising: a furnace; a plurality of heating elements coupled to said furnace, each said plurality of heating elements defining a heat zone, each said heating element set to a desired temperature value; a plurality of thermocouples associated with respective heat zones to detect a temperature value; a translation system for passing an ampoule containing crystal growth material through said furnace into said heat zones and providing a positional location of said ampoule and; a multi-variable self-tuning temperature controller connected to said plurality of heating elements, said plurality of thermocouples and said translation system, said controller monitoring each said zone temperature value and upon considering the thermal interaction of heating zones and the moving thermal inertia of the ampoule, adjusting voltage input to said heat zones to obtain optimal crystal growth within said ampoule.

  5. Transparent multi-zone crystal growth furnace and method for controlling the same

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Batur, Celal (Inventor); Duval, Walter (Inventor); Bennett, Robert J. (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A crystal growth system, comprising: a furnace; a plurality of heating elements coupled to said furnace, each said plurality of heating elements defining a heat zone, each said heating element set to a desired temperature value; a plurality of thermocouples associated with respective heat zones to detect a temperature value; a translation system for passing an ampoule containing crystal growth material through said furnace into said heat zones and providing a positional location of said ampoule and; a multi-variable self-tuning temperature controller connected to said plurality of heating elements, said plurality of thermocouples and said translation system, said controller monitoring each said zone temperature value and upon considering the thermal interaction of heating zones and the moving thermal inertia of the ampoule, adjusting voltage input to said heat zones to obtain optimal crystal growth within said ampoule.

  6. Orbital Forcing driving climate variability on Tropical South Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oliveira, A. S.; Baker, P. A.; Silva, C. G.; Dwyer, G. S.; Chiessi, C. M.; Rigsby, C. A.; Ferreira, F.

    2017-12-01

    Past research on climate response to orbital forcing in tropical South America has emphasized on high precession cycles influencing low latitude hydrologic cycles, and driving the meridional migration of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).However, marine proxy records from the tropical Pacific Ocean showed a strong 41-ka periodicities in Pleistocene seawater temperature and productivity related to fluctuations in Earth's obliquity. It Indicates that the western Pacific ITCZ migration was influenced by combined precession and obliquity changes. To reconstruct different climate regimes over the continent and understand the orbital cycle forcing over Tropical South America climate, hydrological reconstruction have been undertaken on sediment cores located on the Brazilian continental slope, representing the past 1.6 million years. Core CDH 79 site is located on a 2345 m deep seamount on the northern Brazilian continental slope (00° 39.6853' N, 44° 20.7723' W), 320 km from modern coastline of the Maranhão Gulf. High-resolution XRF analyses of Fe, Ti, K and Ca are used to define the changes in precipitation and sedimentary input history of Tropical South America. The response of the hydrology cycle to orbital forcing was studied using spectral analysis.The 1600 ka records of dry/wet conditions presented here indicates that orbital time-scale climate change has been a dominant feature of tropical climate. We conclude that the observed oscillation reflects variability in the ITCZ activity associated with the Earth's tilt. The prevalence of the eccentricity and obliquity signals in continental hydrology proxies (Ti/Ca and Fe/K) as implicated in our precipitation records, highlights that these orbital forcings play an important role in tropics hydrologic cycles. Throughout the Quaternary abrupt shifts of tropical variability are temporally correlated with abrupt climate changes and atmospheric reorganization during Mid-Pleistocene Transition and Mid-Brunhes Events

  7. Zoom in at African country level: potential climate induced changes in areas of suitability for survival of malaria vectors

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Predicting anopheles vectors’ population densities and boundary shifts is crucial in preparing for malaria risks and unanticipated outbreaks. Although shifts in the distribution and boundaries of the major malaria vectors (Anopheles gambiae s.s. and An. arabiensis) across Africa have been predicted, quantified areas of absolute change in zone of suitability for their survival have not been defined. In this study, we have quantified areas of absolute change conducive for the establishment and survival of these vectors, per African country, under two climate change scenarios and based on our findings, highlight practical measures for effective malaria control in the face of changing climatic patterns. Methods We developed a model using CLIMEX simulation platform to estimate the potential geographical distribution and seasonal abundance of these malaria vectors in relation to climatic factors (temperature, rainfall and relative humidity). The model yielded an eco-climatic index (EI) describing the total favourable geographical locations for the species. The EI values were classified and exported to a GIS package. Using ArcGIS, the EI shape points were clipped to the extent of Africa and then converted to a raster layer using Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation method. Generated maps were then transformed into polygon-based geo-referenced data set and their areas computed and expressed in square kilometers (km2). Results Five classes of EI were derived indicating the level of survivorship of these malaria vectors. The proportion of areas increasing or decreasing in level of survival of these malaria vectors will be more pronounced in eastern and southern African countries than those in western Africa. Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, South Africa and Zambia appear most likely to be affected in terms of absolute change of malaria vectors suitability zones under the selected climate change scenarios. Conclusion The potential shifts of

  8. Environmental and physical controls on northern high latitude methane fluxes across permafrost zones

    Treesearch

    D. Olefeldt; M.R. Turetsky; P.M. Crill; A.D. McGuire

    2013-01-01

    Methane (CH4) emissions from the northern high-latitude region represent potentially significant biogeochemical feedbacks to the climate system. We compiled a database of growing-season CH4 emissions from terrestrial ecosystems located across permafrost zones, including 303 sites described in 65 studies. Data on...

  9. Sea Ice, Climate and Fram Strait

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hunkins, K.

    1984-01-01

    When sea ice is formed the albedo of the ocean surface increases from its open water value of about 0.1 to a value as high as 0.8. This albedo change effects the radiation balance and thus has the potential to alter climate. Sea ice also partially seals off the ocean from the atmosphere, reducing the exchange of gases such as carbon dioxide. This is another possible mechanism by which climate might be affected. The Marginal Ice Zone Experiment (MIZEX 83 to 84) is an international, multidisciplinary study of processes controlling the edge of the ice pack in that area including the interactions between sea, air and ice.

  10. Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate

  11. Regional and Large-Scale Climate Influences on Tree-Ring Reconstructed Null Zone Position in San Francisco Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stahle, D.; Griffin, D.; Cleaveland, M.; Fye, F.; Meko, D.; Cayan, D.; Dettinger, M.; Redmond, K.

    2007-05-01

    A new network of 36 moisture sensitive tree-ring chronologies has been developed in and near the drainage basins of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers. The network is based entirely on blue oak (Quercus douglasii), which is a California endemic found from the lower forest border up into the mixed conifer zone in the Coast Ranges, Sierra Nevada, and Cascades. These blue oak tree-ring chronologies are highly correlated with winter-spring precipitation totals, Sacramento and San Joaquin streamflow, and with seasonal variations in salinity and null zone position in San Francisco Bay. Null zone is the non-tidal bottom water location where density-driven salinity and river-driven freshwater currents balance (zero flow). It is the area of highest turbidity, water residence time, sediment accumulation, and net primary productivity in the estuary. Null zone position is measured by the distance from the Golden Gate of the 2 per mil bottom water isohaline and is primarily controlled by discharge from the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers (and ultimately by winter-spring precipitation). The location of the null zone is an estuarine habitat indicator, a policy variable used for ecosystem management, and can have a major impact on biological resources in the San Francisco estuary. Precipitation-sensitive blue oak chronologies can be used to estimate null zone position based on the strong biogeophysical interaction among terrestrial, aquatic, and estuarine ecosystems, orchestrated by precipitation. The null zone reconstruction is 626-years long and provides a unique long term perspective on the interannual to decadal variability of this important estuarine habitat indicator. Consecutive two-year droughts (or longer) allow the null zone to shrink into the confined upper reaches of Suisun Bay, causing a dramatic reduction in phytoplankton production and favoring colonization of the estuary by marine biota. The reconstruction indicates an approximate 10 year recurrence interval

  12. Detecting failure of climate predictions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, Michael C.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Barrett, Andrew P.; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2016-01-01

    The practical consequences of climate change challenge society to formulate responses that are more suited to achieving long-term objectives, even if those responses have to be made in the face of uncertainty1, 2. Such a decision-analytic focus uses the products of climate science as probabilistic predictions about the effects of management policies3. Here we present methods to detect when climate predictions are failing to capture the system dynamics. For a single model, we measure goodness of fit based on the empirical distribution function, and define failure when the distribution of observed values significantly diverges from the modelled distribution. For a set of models, the same statistic can be used to provide relative weights for the individual models, and we define failure when there is no linear weighting of the ensemble models that produces a satisfactory match to the observations. Early detection of failure of a set of predictions is important for improving model predictions and the decisions based on them. We show that these methods would have detected a range shift in northern pintail 20 years before it was actually discovered, and are increasingly giving more weight to those climate models that forecast a September ice-free Arctic by 2055.

  13. Insights into the base of the critical zone from geophysical logging and groundwater flow testing at U.S. Critical Zone Observatories (CZO) and critical zone study sites (CZs)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carr, B.; Zhang, Y.; Ren, S.; Flinchum, B. A.; Parsekian, A.; Holbrook, S.; Riebe, C. S.; Moravec, B. G.; Chorover, J.; Pelletier, J. D.; Richter, D. D., Jr.

    2017-12-01

    Four prominent hypotheses exist and predict conceptual models defining the base of the critical zone. These hypotheses lack insights and constraints from borehole data since few deep (> 20 m) boreholes (and even fewer connected wellfields) are present in the U.S. Critical Zone Observatories (CZO) and similar critical zone study sites (CZs). The influence and interaction of fracture presence, fracture density, fracture orientation, groundwater presence and groundwater flow have only begun to be analyzed relative to any definition of the base of the critical zone. In this presentation, we examine each hypothesis by jointly evaluating borehole geophysical logs and groundwater testing datasets collected by the Wyoming Center for Environmental Hydrology and Geophysics (WyCEHG) since 2014 at these deep CZO or CZ boreholes. Deep boreholes allow a unique opportunity to observe the factors influencing groundwater transmissivity/storage capacity within the three main subsurface CZ layers: Unconsolidated (soil/saprolite), Fractured/weathered Bedrock, and Protolith bedrock (i.e. less fractured bedrock). The boreholes used in this study consist of: 1) nine wells of the Blair-Wallis (WY) WyCEHG CZ, 2) two wells in Catalina-Jemez CZO (Valle Caldera NM) and 3) one borehole at the Calhoun (SC) CZO. At this time, these are the only sites that contain boreholes with depths ranging from at least 20 m up to 70m that have been geophysically logged with full-waveform seismic, acoustic and optical televiewer, electric, electromagnetic, flowmeter (impeller and heat pulse), fluid temperature, fluid conductivity and nuclear magnetic resonance. Further, the Blair-Wallis CZ site contains five hydraulically connected wells that allow us to estimate formation transmissivity and storage coefficients at increasing scales by conducting: slug tests, FLUTe™ borehole profiling, and cross-hole pumping tests. These well tests provide direct hydraulic data of the bedrock (both fractured and protolith

  14. "AfterZone:" Outcomes for Youth Participating in Providence's Citywide After-School System. Executive Summary

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kauh, Tina J.

    2011-01-01

    This executive summary highlights the main findings from our participation and outcomes analysis of the "AfterZone" initiative--a citywide system-building effort in Providence, Rhode Island, that aims to provide high-quality, accessible out-of-school-time services to middle school youth. The summary briefly defines the AfterZone's unique…

  15. Selected approaches to determining the purpose of emergency planning zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dobeš, Pavel; Baudišová, Barbora; Sluka, Vilém; Skřínský, Jan; Danihelka, Pavel; Dlabka, Jakub; Řeháček, Jakub

    2013-04-01

    One of the major accident hazards (hereinafter referred to as "MAH") tools to determine the range of effects of a major accident and consequent protection of the public is the determination of the emergency planning zone (hereinafter referred to as "zone"). In the Czech Republic, the determination of the zone is regulated by the Decree No. 103/2006 Coll. laying down the principles for determination of the emergency planning zone and the extent and manner of elaborating the external emergency plan (hereinafter referred to as "Decree") 3. The Decree is based on the principles of the IAEA-TECDOC-727 method - Manual for the Classification and Prioritization of Risks Due to Major Accidents in Process and Related Industries (hereinafter referred to as "method" and "manual", respectively)3. In the manual, it is pointed out that the method used is not suitable for making emergency plans for special situations (industrial activities in an inhabited area). Nonetheless, its principles and procedures are still used for such purposes in the Czech Republic. The expert scientific community dealing with MAH issues in the Czech Republic, however, realizes that the procedure of the zone boundary delineation should be modified to reflect up-to-date knowledge in protection of the public and its enhancement. Therefore, the OPTIZON Project (Optimization of the Emergency Planning Zone Designation and Elaboration of Emergency Plans Based on Threatening Effects of Dangerous Chemical Substances at Operational Accidents with Respect to Inhabitant Protection Enhancement) was developed and approved for the Program of Security Research of the Czech Republic 2010 - 2015 (BV II/2-VS). One of the main project's objectives is to define clearly the purpose of the zone because at present it is not quite apparent. From the general view, this step may seem insignificant or trivial, but the reverse is true. It represents one of the most important stages in seeking the approach to the zone designation as

  16. Europa, tidally heated oceans, and habitable zones around giant planets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reynolds, R. T.; McKay, C. P.; Kasting, J. F.

    Tidal dissipation in the satellites of a giant planet may provide sufficient heating to maintain an environment favorable to life on the satellite surface or just below a thin ice layer. Europa could have a liquid ocean which may occasionally receive sunlight through cracks in the overlying ice shell. In such a case, sufficient solar energy could reach liquid water that organisms similar to those found under Antarctic ice could grow. In other solar systems, larger satellites with more significant heat flow could represent environments that are stable over an order of eons and in which life could perhaps evolve. A zone around a giant planet is defined in which such satellites could exist as a tidally-heated habitable zone. This zone can be compared to the habitable zone which results from heating due to the radiation of a central star. In this solar system, this radiatively-heated habitable zone contains the earth.

  17. Europa, tidally heated oceans, and habitable zones around giant planets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reynolds, Ray T.; Mckay, Christopher P.; Kasting, James F.

    1987-01-01

    Tidal dissipation in the satellites of a giant planet may provide sufficient heating to maintain an environment favorable to life on the satellite surface or just below a thin ice layer. Europa could have a liquid ocean which may occasionally receive sunlight through cracks in the overlying ice shell. In such a case, sufficient solar energy could reach liquid water that organisms similar to those found under Antarctic ice could grow. In other solar systems, larger satellites with more significant heat flow could represent environments that are stable over an order of eons and in which life could perhaps evolve. A zone around a giant planet is defined in which such satellites could exist as a tidally-heated habitable zone. This zone can be compared to the habitable zone which results from heating due to the radiation of a central star. In this solar system, this radiatively-heated habitable zone contains the earth.

  18. Europa, tidally heated oceans, and habitable zones around giant planets.

    PubMed

    Reynolds, R T; McKay, C P; Kasting, J F

    1987-01-01

    Tidal dissipation in the satellites of a giant planet may provide sufficient heating to maintain an environment favorable to life on the satellite surface or just below a thin ice layer. In our own solar system, Europa, one of the Galilean satellites of Jupiter, could have a liquid ocean which may occasionally receive sunlight through cracks in the overlying ice shell. In such case, sufficient solar energy could reach liquid water that organisms similar to those found under Antarctic ice could grow. In other solar systems, larger satellites with more significant heat flow could represent environments that are stable over an order of Aeons and in which life could perhaps evolve. We define a zone around a giant planet in which such satellites could exist as a tidally-heated habitable zone. This zone can be compared to the habitable zone which results from heating due to the radiation of a central star. In our solar system, this radiatively-heated habitable zone contains the Earth.

  19. Problems encountered when defining Arctic amplification as a ratio

    PubMed Central

    Hind, Alistair; Zhang, Qiong; Brattström, Gudrun

    2016-01-01

    In climate change science the term ‘Arctic amplification’ has become synonymous with an estimation of the ratio of a change in Arctic temperatures compared with a broader reference change under the same period, usually in global temperatures. Here, it is shown that this definition of Arctic amplification comes with a suite of difficulties related to the statistical properties of the ratio estimator itself. Most problematic is the complexity of categorizing uncertainty in Arctic amplification when the global, or reference, change in temperature is close to 0 over a period of interest, in which case it may be impossible to set bounds on this uncertainty. An important conceptual distinction is made between the ‘Ratio of Means’ and ‘Mean Ratio’ approaches to defining a ratio estimate of Arctic amplification, as they do not only possess different uncertainty properties regarding the amplification factor, but are also demonstrated to ask different scientific questions. Uncertainty in the estimated range of the Arctic amplification factor using the latest global climate models and climate forcing scenarios is expanded upon and shown to be greater than previously demonstrated for future climate projections, particularly using forcing scenarios with lower concentrations of greenhouse gases. PMID:27461918

  20. Problems encountered when defining Arctic amplification as a ratio.

    PubMed

    Hind, Alistair; Zhang, Qiong; Brattström, Gudrun

    2016-07-27

    In climate change science the term 'Arctic amplification' has become synonymous with an estimation of the ratio of a change in Arctic temperatures compared with a broader reference change under the same period, usually in global temperatures. Here, it is shown that this definition of Arctic amplification comes with a suite of difficulties related to the statistical properties of the ratio estimator itself. Most problematic is the complexity of categorizing uncertainty in Arctic amplification when the global, or reference, change in temperature is close to 0 over a period of interest, in which case it may be impossible to set bounds on this uncertainty. An important conceptual distinction is made between the 'Ratio of Means' and 'Mean Ratio' approaches to defining a ratio estimate of Arctic amplification, as they do not only possess different uncertainty properties regarding the amplification factor, but are also demonstrated to ask different scientific questions. Uncertainty in the estimated range of the Arctic amplification factor using the latest global climate models and climate forcing scenarios is expanded upon and shown to be greater than previously demonstrated for future climate projections, particularly using forcing scenarios with lower concentrations of greenhouse gases.