Lifetime anxiety disorder and current anxiety symptoms associated with hastened depressive recurrence in bipolar disorder.

PubMed

Shah, Saloni; Kim, Jane P; Park, Dong Yeon; Kim, Hyun; Yuen, Laura D; Do, Dennis; Dell'Osso, Bernardo; Hooshmand, Farnaz; Miller, Shefali; Wang, Po W; Ketter, Terence A

2017-09-01

To assess differential relationships between lifetime anxiety disorder/current anxiety symptoms and longitudinal depressive severity in bipolar disorder (BD). Stanford BD Clinic outpatients enrolled during 2000-2011 were assessed with the Systematic Treatment Enhancement Program for BD (STEP-BD) Affective Disorders Evaluation and followed with the STEP-BD Clinical Monitoring Form while receiving naturalistic treatment for up to two years. Baseline unfavorable illness characteristics/current mood symptoms and times to depressive recurrence/recovery were compared in patients with versus without lifetime anxiety disorder/current anxiety symptoms. Among 105 currently recovered patients, lifetime anxiety disorder was significantly associated with 10/27 (37.0%) demographic/other unfavorable illness characteristics/current mood symptoms/current psychotropics, hastened depressive recurrence (driven by earlier onset age), and a significantly (> two-fold) higher Kaplan-Meier estimated depressive recurrence rate, whereas current anxiety symptoms were significantly associated with 10/27 (37.0%) demographic/other unfavorable illness characteristics/current mood symptoms/current psychotropics and hastened depressive recurrence (driven by lifetime anxiety disorder), but only a numerically higher Kaplan-Meier estimated depressive recurrence rate. In contrast, among 153 currently depressed patients, lifetime anxiety disorder/current anxiety symptoms were not significantly associated with time to depressive recovery or depressive recovery rate. American tertiary BD clinic referral sample, open naturalistic treatment. Research is needed regarding differential relationships between lifetime anxiety disorder and current anxiety symptoms and hastened/delayed depressive recurrence/recovery - specifically whether lifetime anxiety disorder versus current anxiety symptoms has marginally more robust association with hastened depressive recurrence, and whether both have marginally more robust associations with hastened depressive recurrence versus delayed depressive recovery, and related clinical implications. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimation of Model's Marginal likelihood Using Adaptive Sparse Grid Surrogates in Bayesian Model Averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, X.

2015-12-01

A large number of model executions are required to obtain alternative conceptual models' predictions and their posterior probabilities in Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The posterior model probability is estimated through models' marginal likelihood and prior probability. The heavy computation burden hinders the implementation of BMA prediction, especially for the elaborated marginal likelihood estimator. For overcoming the computation burden of BMA, an adaptive sparse grid (SG) stochastic collocation method is used to build surrogates for alternative conceptual models through the numerical experiment of a synthetical groundwater model. BMA predictions depend on model posterior weights (or marginal likelihoods), and this study also evaluated four marginal likelihood estimators, including arithmetic mean estimator (AME), harmonic mean estimator (HME), stabilized harmonic mean estimator (SHME), and thermodynamic integration estimator (TIE). The results demonstrate that TIE is accurate in estimating conceptual models' marginal likelihoods. The BMA-TIE has better predictive performance than other BMA predictions. TIE has high stability for estimating conceptual model's marginal likelihood. The repeated estimated conceptual model's marginal likelihoods by TIE have significant less variability than that estimated by other estimators. In addition, the SG surrogates are efficient to facilitate BMA predictions, especially for BMA-TIE. The number of model executions needed for building surrogates is 4.13%, 6.89%, 3.44%, and 0.43% of the required model executions of BMA-AME, BMA-HME, BMA-SHME, and BMA-TIE, respectively.

Health system delay and its effect on clinical stage of breast cancer: Multicenter study.

PubMed

Unger-Saldaña, Karla; Miranda, Alfonso; Zarco-Espinosa, Gelasio; Mainero-Ratchelous, Fernando; Bargalló-Rocha, Enrique; Miguel Lázaro-León, Jesús

2015-07-01

The objective of this study was to determine the correlation between health system delay and clinical disease stage in patients with breast cancer. This was a cross-sectional study of 886 patients who were referred to 4 of the largest public cancer hospitals in Mexico City for the evaluation of a probable breast cancer. Data on time intervals, sociodemographic factors, and clinical stage at diagnosis were retrieved. A logistic regression model was used to estimate the average marginal effects of delay on the probability of being diagnosed with advanced breast cancer (stages III and IV). The median time between problem identification and the beginning of treatment was 7 months. The subinterval with the largest delay was that between the first medical consultation and diagnosis (median, 4 months). Only 15% of the patients who had cancer were diagnosed with stage 0 and I disease, and 48% were diagnosed with stage III and IV disease. Multivariate analyses confirmed independent correlations for the means of problem identification, patient delay, health system delay, and age with a higher probability that patients would begin cancer treatment in an advanced stage. In the sample studied, the majority of patients with breast cancer began treatment after a delay. Both patient delays and provider delays were associated with advanced disease. Research aimed at identifying specific access barriers to medical services is much needed to guide the design of tailored health policies that go beyond the promotion of breast care awareness and screening participation to include improvements in health services that facilitate access to timely diagnosis and treatment. © 2015 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Cancer Society.

A dual V t disturb-free subthreshold SRAM with write-assist and read isolation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatnagar, Vipul; Kumar, Pradeep; Pandey, Neeta; Pandey, Sujata

2018-02-01

This paper presents a new dual V t 8T SRAM cell having single bit-line read and write, in addition to Write Assist and Read Isolation (WARI). Also a faster write back scheme is proposed for the half selected cells. A high V t device is used for interrupting the supply to one of the inverters for weakening the feedback loop for assisted write. The proposed cell provides an improved read static noise margin (RSNM) due to the bit-line isolation during the read. Static noise margins for data read (RSNM), write (WSNM), read delay, write delay, data retention voltage (DRV), leakage and average powers have been calculated. The proposed cell was found to operate properly at a supply voltage as small as 0.41 V. A new write back scheme has been suggested for half-selected cells, which uses a single NMOS access device and provides reduced delay, pulse timing hardware requirements and power consumption. The proposed new WARI 8T cell shows better performance in terms of easier write, improved read noise margin, reduced leakage power, and less delay as compared to the existing schemes that have been available so far. It was also observed that with proper adjustment of the cell ratio the supply voltage can further be reduced to 0.2 V.

Financial Impacts of Priority Swine Diseases to Pig Farmers in Red River and Mekong River Delta, Vietnam.

PubMed

Pham, H T T; Antoine-Moussiaux, N; Grosbois, V; Moula, N; Truong, B D; Phan, T D; Vu, T D; Trinh, T Q; Vu, C C; Rukkwamsuk, T; Peyre, M

2017-08-01

A study was conducted between May 2013 and August 2014 in three provinces of Vietnam to investigate financial impacts of swine diseases in pig holdings in 2010-2013. The aim of the study was to quantify the costs of swine diseases at producer level in order to understand swine disease priority for monitoring at local level. Financial impacts of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), foot and mouth disease (FMD), and epidemic diarrhoea were assessed for 162 pig holders in two Red River Delta provinces and in one Mekong River Delta province, using data on pig production and swine disease outbreaks at farms. Losses incurred by swine diseases were estimated, including direct losses due to mortality (100% market value of pig before disease onset) and morbidity (abortion, delay of finishing stage), and indirect losses due to control costs (treatment, improving biosecurity and emergency vaccination) and revenue foregone (lower price in case of emergency selling). Financial impacts of swine diseases were expressed as percentage of gross margin of pig holding. The gross margin varied between pig farming groups (P < 0.0001) in the following order: large farm (USD 18 846), fattening farm (USD 7014) and smallholder (USD 2350). The losses per pig holding due to PRRS were the highest: 41% of gross margin for large farm, 38% for fattening farm and 63% for smallholder. Cost incurred by FMD was lower with 19%, 25% and 32% of gross margin of pig holding in large farm, fattening farm and smallholder, respectively. The cost of epidemic diarrhoea was the lowest compared to losses due to PRRS and FMD and accounted for around 10% of gross margin of pig holding in the three pig farming groups. These estimates provided critical elements on swine disease priorities to better inform surveillance and control at both national and local level. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

The impact of precipitation on land interfacility transport times.

PubMed

Giang, Wayne C W; Donmez, Birsen; Ahghari, Mahvareh; MacDonald, Russell D

2014-12-01

Timely transfer of patients among facilities within a regionalized critical-care system remains a large obstacle to effective patient care. For medical transport systems where dispatchers are responsible for planning these interfacility transfers, accurate estimates of interfacility transfer times play a large role in planning and resource-allocation decisions. However, the impact of adverse weather conditions on transfer times is not well understood. Precipitation negatively impacts driving conditions and can decrease free-flow speeds and increase travel times. The objective of this research was to quantify and model the effects of different precipitation types on land travel times for interfacility patient transfers. It was hypothesized that the effects of precipitation would accumulate as the distance of the transfer increased, and they would differ based on the type of precipitation. Urgent and emergent interfacility transfers carried out by the medical transport system in Ontario from 2005 through 2011 were linked to Environment Canada's (Gatineau, Quebec, Canada) climate data. Two linear models were built to estimate travel times based on precipitation type and driving distance: one for transfers between cities (intercity) and another for transfers within a city (intracity). Precipitation affected both transfer types. For intercity transfers, the magnitude of the delays increased as driving distance increased. For median-distance intercity transfers (48 km), snow produced delays of approximately 9.1% (3.1 minutes), while rain produced delays of 8.4% (2.9 minutes). For intracity transfers, the magnitude of delays attributed to precipitation did not depend on distance driven. Transfers in rain were 8.6% longer (1.7 minutes) compared to no precipitation, whereas only statistically marginal effects were observed for snow. Precipitation increases the duration of interfacility land ambulance travel times by eight percent to ten percent. For transfers between cities, snow is associated with the longest delays (versus rain), but for transfers within a single city, rain is associated with the longest delays.

Estimating inverse probability weights using super learner when weight-model specification is unknown in a marginal structural Cox model context.

PubMed

Karim, Mohammad Ehsanul; Platt, Robert W

2017-06-15

Correct specification of the inverse probability weighting (IPW) model is necessary for consistent inference from a marginal structural Cox model (MSCM). In practical applications, researchers are typically unaware of the true specification of the weight model. Nonetheless, IPWs are commonly estimated using parametric models, such as the main-effects logistic regression model. In practice, assumptions underlying such models may not hold and data-adaptive statistical learning methods may provide an alternative. Many candidate statistical learning approaches are available in the literature. However, the optimal approach for a given dataset is impossible to predict. Super learner (SL) has been proposed as a tool for selecting an optimal learner from a set of candidates using cross-validation. In this study, we evaluate the usefulness of a SL in estimating IPW in four different MSCM simulation scenarios, in which we varied the specification of the true weight model specification (linear and/or additive). Our simulations show that, in the presence of weight model misspecification, with a rich and diverse set of candidate algorithms, SL can generally offer a better alternative to the commonly used statistical learning approaches in terms of MSE as well as the coverage probabilities of the estimated effect in an MSCM. The findings from the simulation studies guided the application of the MSCM in a multiple sclerosis cohort from British Columbia, Canada (1995-2008), to estimate the impact of beta-interferon treatment in delaying disability progression. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Multi-scale mantle structure underneath the Americas from a new tomographic model of seismic shear velocity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porritt, R. W.; Becker, T. W.; Auer, L.; Boschi, L.

2017-12-01

We present a whole-mantle, variable resolution, shear-wave tomography model based on newly available and existing seismological datasets including regional body-wave delay times and multi-mode Rayleigh and Love wave phase delays. Our body wave dataset includes 160,000 S wave delays used in the DNA13 regional tomographic model focused on the western and central US, 86,000 S and SKS delays measured on stations in western South America (Porritt et al., in prep), and 3,900,000 S+ phases measured by correlation between data observed at stations in the IRIS global networks (IU, II) and stations in the continuous US, against synthetic data generated with IRIS Syngine. The surface wave dataset includes fundamental mode and overtone Rayleigh wave data from Schaeffer and Levedev (2014), ambient noise derived Rayleigh wave and Love wave measurements from Ekstrom (2013), newly computed fundamental mode ambient noise Rayleigh wave phase delays for the continuous US up to July 2017, and other, previously published, measurements. These datasets, along with a data-adaptive parameterization utilized for the SAVANI model (Auer et al., 2014), should allow significantly finer-scale imaging than previous global models, rivaling that of regional-scale approaches, under the USArray footprint in the continuous US, while seamlessly integrating into a global model. We parameterize the model for both vertically (vSV) and horizontally (vSH) polarized shear velocities by accounting for the different sensitivities of the various phases and wave types. The resulting, radially anisotropic model should allow for a range of new geodynamic analysis, including estimates of mantle flow induced topography or seismic anisotropy, without generating artifacts due to edge effects, or requiring assumptions about the structure of the region outside the well resolved model space. Our model shows a number of features, including indications of the effects of edge-driven convection in the Cordillera and along the eastern margin and larger-scale convection due to the subduction of the Farallon slab and along the edge of the Laurentia cratonic margin.

Effects of Immediate and Delayed Loading on the Outcomes of All-on-4 Treatment: A Prospective Study

PubMed Central

Najafi, Hossein; Siadat, Hakimeh; Rokn, Amirreza

2016-01-01

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to compare the outcomes of immediate and delayed rehabilitation of edentulous jaws by means of two straight and two tilted implants after one year of function. Materials and Methods: Thirty consecutive patients (16 males, 14 females) were enrolled in this study. Two anterior straight and two posterior tilted implants were placed in each patient. According to the implant insertion torque and the need for bone grafting, implants were loaded immediately (at 72 hours) or delayed (after four months) using a fixed metal resin prosthesis. Results: One axial implant failed in the delayed group after one year of loading, resulting in cumulative implant survival rate of 99.3%. The mean marginal bone loss was 0.84mm. No significant difference was found between axial and tilted implants in the two groups (P>0.05) Conclusions: Based on the results, immediate or delayed fabrication of final prosthesis on two tilted and two axial implants did not result in significant differences in survival rates or marginal bone loss. PMID:28243303

Applied Time Domain Stability Margin Assessment for Nonlinear Time-Varying Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiefer, J. M.; Johnson, M. D.; Wall, J. H.; Dominguez, A.

2016-01-01

The baseline stability margins for NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) launch vehicle were generated via the classical approach of linearizing the system equations of motion and determining the gain and phase margins from the resulting frequency domain model. To improve the fidelity of the classical methods, the linear frequency domain approach can be extended by replacing static, memoryless nonlinearities with describing functions. This technique, however, does not address the time varying nature of the dynamics of a launch vehicle in flight. An alternative technique for the evaluation of the stability of the nonlinear launch vehicle dynamics along its trajectory is to incrementally adjust the gain and/or time delay in the time domain simulation until the system exhibits unstable behavior. This technique has the added benefit of providing a direct comparison between the time domain and frequency domain tools in support of simulation validation. This technique was implemented by using the Stability Aerospace Vehicle Analysis Tool (SAVANT) computer simulation to evaluate the stability of the SLS system with the Adaptive Augmenting Control (AAC) active and inactive along its ascent trajectory. The gains for which the vehicle maintains apparent time-domain stability defines the gain margins, and the time delay similarly defines the phase margin. This method of extracting the control stability margins from the time-domain simulation is relatively straightforward and the resultant margins can be compared to the linearized system results. The sections herein describe the techniques employed to extract the time-domain margins, compare the results between these nonlinear and the linear methods, and provide explanations for observed discrepancies. The SLS ascent trajectory was simulated with SAVANT and the classical linear stability margins were evaluated at one second intervals. The linear analysis was performed with the AAC algorithm disabled to attain baseline stability margins. At each time point, the system was linearized about the current operating point using Simulink's built-in solver. Each linearized system in time was evaluated for its rigid-body gain margin (high frequency gain margin), rigid-body phase margin, and aero gain margin (low frequency gain margin) for each control axis. Using the stability margins derived from the baseline linearization approach, the time domain derived stability margins were determined by executing time domain simulations in which axis-specific incremental gain and phase adjustments were made to the nominal system about the expected neutral stability point at specific flight times. The baseline stability margin time histories were used to shift the system gain to various values around the zero margin point such that a precise amount of expected gain margin was maintained throughout flight. When assessing the gain margins, the gain was applied starting at the time point under consideration, thereafter following the variation in the margin found in the linear analysis. When assessing the rigid-body phase margin, a constant time delay was applied to the system starting at the time point under consideration. If the baseline stability margins were correctly determined via the linear analysis, the time domain simulation results should contain unstable behavior at certain gain and phase values. Examples will be shown from repeated simulations with variable added gain and phase lag. Faithfulness of margins calculated from the linear analysis to the nonlinear system will be demonstrated.

Precise Absolute Astrometry from the VLBA Imaging and Polarimetry Survey at 5 GHz

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petrov, L.; Taylor, G. B.

2011-01-01

We present accurate positions for 857 sources derived from the astrometric analysis of 16 eleven-hour experiments from the Very Long Baseline Array imaging and polarimetry survey at 5 GHz (VIPS). Among the observed sources, positions of 430 objects were not previously determined at milliarcsecond-level accuracy. For 95% of the sources the uncertainty of their positions ranges from 0.3 to 0.9 mas, with a median value of 0.5 mas. This estimate of accuracy is substantiated by the comparison of positions of 386 sources that were previously observed in astrometric programs simultaneously at 2.3/8.6 GHz. Surprisingly, the ionosphere contribution to group delay was adequately modeled with the use of the total electron content maps derived from GPS observations and only marginally affected estimates of source coordinates.

Topics in Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling and its Monte Carlo Computations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tak, Hyung Suk

The first chapter addresses a Beta-Binomial-Logit model that is a Beta-Binomial conjugate hierarchical model with covariate information incorporated via a logistic regression. Various researchers in the literature have unknowingly used improper posterior distributions or have given incorrect statements about posterior propriety because checking posterior propriety can be challenging due to the complicated functional form of a Beta-Binomial-Logit model. We derive data-dependent necessary and sufficient conditions for posterior propriety within a class of hyper-prior distributions that encompass those used in previous studies. Frequency coverage properties of several hyper-prior distributions are also investigated to see when and whether Bayesian interval estimates of random effects meet their nominal confidence levels. The second chapter deals with a time delay estimation problem in astrophysics. When the gravitational field of an intervening galaxy between a quasar and the Earth is strong enough to split light into two or more images, the time delay is defined as the difference between their travel times. The time delay can be used to constrain cosmological parameters and can be inferred from the time series of brightness data of each image. To estimate the time delay, we construct a Gaussian hierarchical model based on a state-space representation for irregularly observed time series generated by a latent continuous-time Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Our Bayesian approach jointly infers model parameters via a Gibbs sampler. We also introduce a profile likelihood of the time delay as an approximation of its marginal posterior distribution. The last chapter specifies a repelling-attracting Metropolis algorithm, a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method to explore multi-modal distributions in a simple and fast manner. This algorithm is essentially a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with a proposal that consists of a downhill move in density that aims to make local modes repelling, followed by an uphill move in density that aims to make local modes attracting. The downhill move is achieved via a reciprocal Metropolis ratio so that the algorithm prefers downward movement. The uphill move does the opposite using the standard Metropolis ratio which prefers upward movement. This down-up movement in density increases the probability of a proposed move to a different mode.

Brazed Joints Design and Allowables: Discuss Margins of Safety in Critical Brazed Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

FLom, Yury

2009-01-01

This slide presentation tutorial discusses margins of safety in critical brazed structures. It reviews: (1) the present situation (2) definition of strength (3) margins of safety (4) design allowables (5) mechanical testing (6) failure criteria (7) design flowchart (8) braze gap (9) residual stresses and (10) delayed failures. This presentation addresses the strength of the brazed joints, the methods of mechanical testing, and our ability to evaluate the margins of safety of the brazed joints as it applies to the design of critical and expensive brazed assemblies.

On reliable time-frequency characterization and delay estimation of stimulus frequency otoacoustic emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biswal, Milan; Mishra, Srikanta

2018-05-01

The limited information on origin and nature of stimulus frequency otoacoustic emissions (SFOAEs) necessitates a thorough reexamination into SFOAE analysis procedures. This will lead to a better understanding of the generation of SFOAEs. The SFOAE response waveform in the time domain can be interpreted as a summation of amplitude modulated and frequency modulated component waveforms. The efficiency of a technique to segregate these components is critical to describe the nature of SFOAEs. Recent advancements in robust time-frequency analysis algorithms have staked claims on the more accurate extraction of these components, from composite signals buried in noise. However, their potential has not been fully explored for SFOAEs analysis. Indifference to distinct information, due to nature of these analysis techniques, may impact the scientific conclusions. This paper attempts to bridge this gap in literature by evaluating the performance of three linear time-frequency analysis algorithms: short-time Fourier transform (STFT), continuous Wavelet transform (CWT), S-transform (ST) and two nonlinear algorithms: Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT), synchrosqueezed Wavelet transform (SWT). We revisit the extraction of constituent components and estimation of their magnitude and delay, by carefully evaluating the impact of variation in analysis parameters. The performance of HHT and SWT from the perspective of time-frequency filtering and delay estimation were found to be relatively less efficient for analyzing SFOAEs. The intrinsic mode functions of HHT does not completely characterize the reflection components and hence IMF based filtering alone, is not recommended for segregating principal emission from multiple reflection components. We found STFT, WT, and ST to be suitable for canceling multiple internal reflection components with marginal altering in SFOAE.

Multilevel Mixture Kalman Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Dong; Wang, Xiaodong; Chen, Rong

2004-12-01

The mixture Kalman filter is a general sequential Monte Carlo technique for conditional linear dynamic systems. It generates samples of some indicator variables recursively based on sequential importance sampling (SIS) and integrates out the linear and Gaussian state variables conditioned on these indicators. Due to the marginalization process, the complexity of the mixture Kalman filter is quite high if the dimension of the indicator sampling space is high. In this paper, we address this difficulty by developing a new Monte Carlo sampling scheme, namely, the multilevel mixture Kalman filter. The basic idea is to make use of the multilevel or hierarchical structure of the space from which the indicator variables take values. That is, we draw samples in a multilevel fashion, beginning with sampling from the highest-level sampling space and then draw samples from the associate subspace of the newly drawn samples in a lower-level sampling space, until reaching the desired sampling space. Such a multilevel sampling scheme can be used in conjunction with the delayed estimation method, such as the delayed-sample method, resulting in delayed multilevel mixture Kalman filter. Examples in wireless communication, specifically the coherent and noncoherent 16-QAM over flat-fading channels, are provided to demonstrate the performance of the proposed multilevel mixture Kalman filter.

Real-time auto-adaptive margin generation for MLC-tracked radiotherapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glitzner, M.; Fast, M. F.; de Senneville, B. Denis; Nill, S.; Oelfke, U.; Lagendijk, J. J. W.; Raaymakers, B. W.; Crijns, S. P. M.

2017-01-01

In radiotherapy, abdominal and thoracic sites are candidates for performing motion tracking. With real-time control it is possible to adjust the multileaf collimator (MLC) position to the target position. However, positions are not perfectly matched and position errors arise from system delays and complicated response of the electromechanic MLC system. Although, it is possible to compensate parts of these errors by using predictors, residual errors remain and need to be compensated to retain target coverage. This work presents a method to statistically describe tracking errors and to automatically derive a patient-specific, per-segment margin to compensate the arising underdosage on-line, i.e. during plan delivery. The statistics of the geometric error between intended and actual machine position are derived using kernel density estimators. Subsequently a margin is calculated on-line according to a selected coverage parameter, which determines the amount of accepted underdosage. The margin is then applied onto the actual segment to accommodate the positioning errors in the enlarged segment. The proof-of-concept was tested in an on-line tracking experiment and showed the ability to recover underdosages for two test cases, increasing {{V}90 %} in the underdosed area about 47 % and 41 % , respectively. The used dose model was able to predict the loss of dose due to tracking errors and could be used to infer the necessary margins. The implementation had a running time of 23 ms which is compatible with real-time requirements of MLC tracking systems. The auto-adaptivity to machine and patient characteristics makes the technique a generic yet intuitive candidate to avoid underdosages due to MLC tracking errors.

Analysis and experiments for delay compensation in attitude control of flexible spacecraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabatini, Marco; Palmerini, Giovanni B.; Leonangeli, Nazareno; Gasbarri, Paolo

2014-11-01

Space vehicles are often characterized by highly flexible appendages, with low natural frequencies which can generate coupling phenomena during orbital maneuvering. The stability and delay margins of the controlled system are deeply affected by the presence of bodies with different elastic properties, assembled to form a complex multibody system. As a consequence, unstable behavior can arise. In this paper the problem is first faced from a numerical point of view, developing accurate multibody mathematical models, as well as relevant navigation and control algorithms. One of the main causes of instability is identified with the unavoidable presence of time delays in the GNC loop. A strategy to compensate for these delays is elaborated and tested using the simulation tool, and finally validated by means of a free floating platform, replicating the flexible spacecraft attitude dynamics (single axis rotation). The platform is equipped with thrusters commanded according to the on-off modulation of the Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) control law. The LQR is based on the estimate of the full state vector, i.e. including both rigid - attitude - and elastic variables, that is possible thanks to the on line measurement of the flexible displacements, realized by processing the images acquired by a dedicated camera. The accurate mathematical model of the system and the rigid and elastic measurements enable a prediction of the state, so that the control is evaluated taking the predicted state relevant to a delayed time into account. Both the simulations and the experimental campaign demonstrate that by compensating in this way the time delay, the instability is eliminated, and the maneuver is performed accurately.

Reconciling quality and cost: A case study in interventional radiology.

PubMed

Zhang, Li; Domröse, Sascha; Mahnken, Andreas

2015-10-01

To provide a method to calculate delay cost and examine the relationship between quality and total cost. The total cost including capacity, supply and delay cost for running an interventional radiology suite was calculated. The capacity cost, consisting of labour, lease and overhead costs, was derived based on expenses per unit time. The supply cost was calculated according to actual procedural material use. The delay cost and marginal delay cost derived from queueing models was calculated based on waiting times of inpatients for their procedures. Quality improvement increased patient safety and maintained the outcome. The average daily delay costs were reduced from 1275 € to 294 €, and marginal delay costs from approximately 2000 € to 500 €, respectively. The one-time annual cost saved from the transfer of surgical to radiological procedures was approximately 130,500 €. The yearly delay cost saved was approximately 150,000 €. With increased revenue of 10,000 € in project phase 2, the yearly total cost saved was approximately 290,000 €. Optimal daily capacity of 4.2 procedures was determined. An approach for calculating delay cost toward optimal capacity allocation was presented. An overall quality improvement was achieved at reduced costs. • Improving quality in terms of safety, outcome, efficiency and timeliness reduces cost. • Mismatch of demand and capacity is detrimental to quality and cost. • Full system utilization with random demand results in long waiting periods and increased cost.

Design Considerations for a New Terminal Area Arrival Scheduler

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thipphavong, Jane; Mulfinger, Daniel

2010-01-01

Design of a terminal area arrival scheduler depends on the interrelationship between throughput, delay and controller intervention. The main contribution of this paper is an analysis of the above interdependence for several stochastic behaviors of expected system performance distributions in the aircraft s time of arrival at the meter fix and runway. Results of this analysis serve to guide the scheduler design choices for key control variables. Two types of variables are analyzed, separation buffers and terminal delay margins. The choice for these decision variables was tested using sensitivity analysis. Analysis suggests that it is best to set the separation buffer at the meter fix to its minimum and adjust the runway buffer to attain the desired system performance. Delay margin was found to have the least effect. These results help characterize the variables most influential in the scheduling operations of terminal area arrivals.

Asymptotic Linearity of Optimal Control Modification Adaptive Law with Analytical Stability Margins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, Nhan T.

2010-01-01

Optimal control modification has been developed to improve robustness to model-reference adaptive control. For systems with linear matched uncertainty, optimal control modification adaptive law can be shown by a singular perturbation argument to possess an outer solution that exhibits a linear asymptotic property. Analytical expressions of phase and time delay margins for the outer solution can be obtained. Using the gradient projection operator, a free design parameter of the adaptive law can be selected to satisfy stability margins.

The amount effect and marginal value.

PubMed

Rachlin, Howard; Arfer, Kodi B; Safin, Vasiliy; Yen, Ming

2015-07-01

The amount effect of delay discounting (by which the value of larger reward amounts is discounted by delay at a lower rate than that of smaller amounts) strictly implies that value functions (value as a function of amount) are steeper at greater delays than they are at lesser delays. That is, the amount effect and the difference in value functions at different delays are actually a single empirical finding. Amount effects of delay discounting are typically found with choice experiments. Value functions for immediate rewards have been empirically obtained by direct judgment. (Value functions for delayed rewards have not been previously obtained.) The present experiment obtained value functions for both immediate and delayed rewards by direct judgment and found them to be steeper when the rewards were delayed--hence, finding an amount effect with delay discounting. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Estimating Marginal Returns to Education. NBER Working Paper No. 16474

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carneiro, Pedro; Heckman, James J.; Vytlacil, Edward J.

2010-01-01

This paper estimates the marginal returns to college for individuals induced to enroll in college by different marginal policy changes. The recent instrumental variables literature seeks to estimate this parameter, but in general it does so only under strong assumptions that are tested and found wanting. We show how to utilize economic theory and…

Marginal Maximum A Posteriori Item Parameter Estimation for the Generalized Graded Unfolding Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, James S.; Thompson, Vanessa M.

2011-01-01

A marginal maximum a posteriori (MMAP) procedure was implemented to estimate item parameters in the generalized graded unfolding model (GGUM). Estimates from the MMAP method were compared with those derived from marginal maximum likelihood (MML) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedures in a recovery simulation that varied sample size,…

Ionospheric Slant Total Electron Content Analysis Using Global Positioning System Based Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Komjathy, Attila (Inventor); Mannucci, Anthony J. (Inventor); Sparks, Lawrence C. (Inventor)

2017-01-01

A method, system, apparatus, and computer program product provide the ability to analyze ionospheric slant total electron content (TEC) using global navigation satellite systems (GNSS)-based estimation. Slant TEC is estimated for a given set of raypath geometries by fitting historical GNSS data to a specified delay model. The accuracy of the specified delay model is estimated by computing delay estimate residuals and plotting a behavior of the delay estimate residuals. An ionospheric threat model is computed based on the specified delay model. Ionospheric grid delays (IGDs) and grid ionospheric vertical errors (GIVEs) are computed based on the ionospheric threat model.

Psychological factors related to delay in consultation for cancer symptoms.

PubMed

Ristvedt, Stephen L; Trinkaus, Kathryn M

2005-05-01

This research investigated psychological characteristics associated with delay in seeking help for symptoms of rectal cancer. Sixty nine subjects reconstructed pivotal events beginning with symptom onset and ending with medical consultation, and completed the Temperament and Character Inventory (TCI) and the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI). The mean delay time was around 6 months, with about 1 out of 6 subjects waiting one year or more. Subjects estimated the lengths of two sequential segments of total time to consultation: (1) Symptom Appraisal time (from symptom onset to recognition of possible seriousness), and (2) Action Appraisal time (from recognition of seriousness to medical consultation). Symptom Appraisal time accounted for over two-thirds of total time and was associated with low scores on the TCI Harm Avoidance scale (TCI-HA), indicating dispositional insensitivity to threat, and marginally associated with less education and younger age. Action Appraisal time was not associated with any demographic or psychological variables. Low TCI-HA scores were also associated with lower likelihood of previous cancer screening, and with better judgments of premorbid health. Low STAI Trait scores were associated with better judgments of premorbid health and fewer doctor visits. Results are discussed regarding the importance of understanding dispositional characteristics related to health behavior. Copyright (c) 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Robust Flutter Margin Analysis that Incorporates Flight Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lind, Rick; Brenner, Martin J.

1998-01-01

An approach for computing worst-case flutter margins has been formulated in a robust stability framework. Uncertainty operators are included with a linear model to describe modeling errors and flight variations. The structured singular value, mu, computes a stability margin that directly accounts for these uncertainties. This approach introduces a new method of computing flutter margins and an associated new parameter for describing these margins. The mu margins are robust margins that indicate worst-case stability estimates with respect to the defined uncertainty. Worst-case flutter margins are computed for the F/A-18 Systems Research Aircraft using uncertainty sets generated by flight data analysis. The robust margins demonstrate flight conditions for flutter may lie closer to the flight envelope than previously estimated by p-k analysis.

Therapeutic dormancy to delay postsurgical glioma recurrence: the past, present and promise of focal hypothermia.

PubMed

Wion, Didier

2017-07-01

Surgery precedes both radiotherapy and chemotherapy as the first-line therapy for glioma. However, despite multimodal treatment, most glioma patients die from local recurrence in the resection margin. Glioma surgery is inherently lesional, and the response of brain tissue to surgery includes hemostasis, angiogenesis, reactive gliosis and inflammation. Unfortunately, these processes are also associated with tumorigenic side-effects. An increasing amount of evidence indicates that the response to a surgery-related brain injury is hijacked by residual glioma cells and participates in the local regeneration of tumor tissues at the resection margin. Inducing therapeutic hypothermia in the brain has long been used to treat the secondary damage, such as neuroinflammation and edema, that are caused by accidental traumatic brain injuries. There is compelling evidence to suggest that inducing therapeutic hypothermia at the resection margin would delay the local recurrence of glioma by (i) limiting cell proliferation, (ii) disrupting the pathological connection between inflammation and glioma recurrence, and (iii) limiting the consequences of the functional heterogeneity and complexity inherent to the tumor ecosystem. While the global whole-body cooling methods that are currently used to treat stroke in clinical practice may not adequately treat the resection margin, the future lies in implantable focal microcooling devices similar to those under development for the treatment of epilepsy. Preclinical and clinical strategies to evaluate focal hypothermia must be implemented to prevent glioma recurrence in the resection margin. Placing the resection margin in a state of hibernation may potentially provide such a long-awaited therapeutic breakthrough.

Apical and marginal bone alterations around implants in maxillary sinus augmentation grafted with autogenous bone or bovine bone material and simultaneous or delayed dental implant positioning.

PubMed

Sbordone, Ludovico; Levin, Liran; Guidetti, Franco; Sbordone, Carolina; Glikman, Ari; Schwartz-Arad, Devorah

2011-05-01

A re-pneumatization phenomenon was recorded in sinuses grafted with different materials. The specific aims of this paper were to assess the dental implant survival rate and the behavior of marginal and apical bone remodeling around dental implants placed following sinus augmentation. A retrospective study was conducted on consecutive patients treated in two surgical centers. Different surgical techniques were adopted for sinus augmentation: simultaneous or delayed dental implant insertion with bovine bone-material augmentation or autologous bone grafting (chin and iliac crest). Survival rates were recorded for the overall number of implants (patients of group A). Apical and marginal bone levels (ABL and MBL, respectively) were radiographically measured, and statistical analysis was performed in implants of a subgroup of patients (group B). A total of 282 dental implants were positioned. Recorded cumulative survival rates (CSRs) were 95.6% and 100% for autogenous and bovine bone material, respectively, while CSRs at 2-year follow-up for immediate and delayed procedures were 99.3% and 96.5%. For the subgroup B, 57 sinus augmentation procedures were performed in 39 patients, with the positioning of 154 implants. Generally, the apical- and marginal-bone resorption of the bovine bone-material group was less than that of the autogenous group. The differences between the ABL values of the bovine bone-material and iliac-crest groups were statistically significant at 1 year, whereas this significance disappeared at the 2-year follow-up; tests showed that a statistical difference was recorded in the bovine bone-material group between the 1- and 2-year follow-ups. With regard to MBL comparisons between simultaneous and delayed implantation, the differences maintained their significance at the 2-year follow-up also. Differences regarding apical bone alteration between autogenous bone from the iliac crest and bovine bone material at the 1- and 2-year follow-ups, as well as in the bovine bone-material group between the 1- and 2-year follow-ups, attested to slower but more prolonged physiologic bone remodeling in the bovine-graft-material group than in the autogenous-bone group. The MBL analysis showed that remodeling in the delayed implant group demonstrated a greater resorption in the cervical portion than was seen in the simultaneous implant group. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Worst-Case Flutter Margins from F/A-18 Aircraft Aeroelastic Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lind, Rick; Brenner, Marty

1997-01-01

An approach for computing worst-case flutter margins has been formulated in a robust stability framework. Uncertainty operators are included with a linear model to describe modeling errors and flight variations. The structured singular value, micron, computes a stability margin which directly accounts for these uncertainties. This approach introduces a new method of computing flutter margins and an associated new parameter for describing these margins. The micron margins are robust margins which indicate worst-case stability estimates with respect to the defined uncertainty. Worst-case flutter margins are computed for the F/A-18 SRA using uncertainty sets generated by flight data analysis. The robust margins demonstrate flight conditions for flutter may lie closer to the flight envelope than previously estimated by p-k analysis.

Mass Properties for Space Systems Standards Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beech, Geoffrey

2013-01-01

Current Verbiage in S-120 Applies to Dry Mass. Mass Margin is difference between Required Mass and Predicted Mass. Performance Margin is difference between Predicted Performance and Required Performance. Performance estimates and corresponding margin should be based on Predicted Mass (and other inputs). Contractor Mass Margin reserved from Performance Margin. Remaining performance margin allocated according to mass partials. Compliance can be evaluated effectively by comparison of three areas (preferably on a single sheet). Basic and Predicted Mass (including historical trend). Aggregate potential changes (threats and opportunities) which gives Mass Forecast. Mass Maturity by category (Estimated/Calculated/Actual).

Immediate loading of subcrestally placed dental implants in anterior and premolar sites.

PubMed

Henningsen, Anders; Smeets, Ralf; Köppen, Kai; Sehner, Susanne; Kornmann, Frank; Gröbe, Alexander; Heiland, Max; Gerlach, Till

2017-11-01

Immediate loading of dental implants has been evolving into an appropriate procedure for the treatment of partially edentulous jaws. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the clinical success and radiological outcome of immediately and delayed loaded dental implants in anterior and premolar sites. In this retrospective study, data of 163 individuals requiring tooth removal with subsequent implant placement in anterior and premolar sites were analyzed. Implants were immediately loaded by provisional acrylic resin bridges or loaded with delay. Implants were followed up annually for up to 9 years including intraoral radiographs. A total of 285 implants in 163 patients were placed. 218 implants were immediately loaded and 67 implants with delay. Fifteen implants failed during the follow-up period resulting in survival rates of 94.5% for immediate loading and 95.5% for delayed loading. After an initial decrease of 0.3 mm in the first 12 months the marginal bone level remained stable. No statistically significant differences were found in marginal bone loss between immediately and delayed loaded implants (P = 0.518, 95% CI). Within the limits of this study, immediate loading of immediately subcrestally placed dental implants in anterior and premolar sites is a reliable treatment option for dental rehabilitation. Copyright © 2017 European Association for Cranio-Maxillo-Facial Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stochastic parameter estimation in nonlinear time-delayed vibratory systems with distributed delay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torkamani, Shahab; Butcher, Eric A.

2013-07-01

The stochastic estimation of parameters and states in linear and nonlinear time-delayed vibratory systems with distributed delay is explored. The approach consists of first employing a continuous time approximation to approximate the delayed integro-differential system with a large set of ordinary differential equations having stochastic excitations. Then the problem of state and parameter estimation in the resulting stochastic ordinary differential system is represented as an optimal filtering problem using a state augmentation technique. By adapting the extended Kalman-Bucy filter to the augmented filtering problem, the unknown parameters of the time-delayed system are estimated from noise-corrupted, possibly incomplete measurements of the states. Similarly, the upper bound of the distributed delay can also be estimated by the proposed technique. As an illustrative example to a practical problem in vibrations, the parameter, delay upper bound, and state estimation from noise-corrupted measurements in a distributed force model widely used for modeling machine tool vibrations in the turning operation is investigated.

Sub-1-V-60 nm vertical body channel MOSFET-based six-transistor static random access memory array with wide noise margin and excellent power delay product and its optimization with the cell ratio on static random access memory cell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogasawara, Ryosuke; Endoh, Tetsuo

2018-04-01

In this study, with the aim to achieve a wide noise margin and an excellent power delay product (PDP), a vertical body channel (BC)-MOSFET-based six-transistor (6T) static random access memory (SRAM) array is evaluated by changing the number of pillars in each part of a SRAM cell, that is, by changing the cell ratio in the SRAM cell. This 60 nm vertical BC-MOSFET-based 6T SRAM array realizes 0.84 V operation under the best PDP and up to 31% improvement of PDP compared with the 6T SRAM array based on a 90 nm planar MOSFET whose gate length and channel width are the same as those of the 60 nm vertical BC-MOSFET. Additionally, the vertical BC-MOSFET-based 6T SRAM array achieves an 8.8% wider read static noise margin (RSNM), a 16% wider write margin (WM), and an 89% smaller leakage. Moreover, it is shown that changing the cell ratio brings larger improvements of RSNM, WM, and write time in the vertical BC-MOSFET-based 6T SRAM array.

Adjustment of Adaptive Gain with Bounded Linear Stability Analysis to Improve Time-Delay Margin for Metrics-Driven Adaptive Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bakhtiari-Nejad, Maryam; Nguyen, Nhan T.; Krishnakumar, Kalmanje Srinvas

2009-01-01

This paper presents the application of Bounded Linear Stability Analysis (BLSA) method for metrics driven adaptive control. The bounded linear stability analysis method is used for analyzing stability of adaptive control models, without linearizing the adaptive laws. Metrics-driven adaptive control introduces a notion that adaptation should be driven by some stability metrics to achieve robustness. By the application of bounded linear stability analysis method the adaptive gain is adjusted during the adaptation in order to meet certain phase margin requirements. Analysis of metrics-driven adaptive control is evaluated for a linear damaged twin-engine generic transport model of aircraft. The analysis shows that the system with the adjusted adaptive gain becomes more robust to unmodeled dynamics or time delay.

An Evaluation of Hierarchical Bayes Estimation for the Two- Parameter Logistic Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Seock-Ho

Hierarchical Bayes procedures for the two-parameter logistic item response model were compared for estimating item parameters. Simulated data sets were analyzed using two different Bayes estimation procedures, the two-stage hierarchical Bayes estimation (HB2) and the marginal Bayesian with known hyperparameters (MB), and marginal maximum…

Self-regulation strategies may enhance the acute effect of exercise on smoking delay.

PubMed

Hatzigeorgiadis, Antonis; Pappa, Vassiliki; Tsiami, Anastasia; Tzatzaki, Theodora; Georgakouli, Kalliopi; Zourbanos, Nikos; Goudas, Marios; Chatzisarantis, Nikos; Theodorakis, Yannis

2016-06-01

The present study examined the acute effect of a moderate intensity aerobic exercise session combined with self-regulation on smoking delay in physically inactive smokers. Participants were 11 adults (5 males and 6 females) that completed three experimental conditions: control, exercise, and exercise using self-regulation strategies (SR). Following the experimental treatment smoking for the two exercise conditions delayed significantly more than for the control condition; in addition exercise SR delayed smoking marginally more that the plain exercise condition. Findings supported previous research that acute exercise reduces cravings to smoke, and suggests that the use of self-regulation strategies may strengthen exercise for smoking cessation interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Marginal Economic Value of Streamflow: A Case Study for the Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Thomas C.; Harding, Benjamin L.; Payton, Elizabeth A.

1990-12-01

The marginal economic value of streamflow leaving forested areas in the Colorado River Basin was estimated by determining the impact on water use of a small change in streamflow and then applying economic value estimates to the water use changes. The effect on water use of a change in streamflow was estimated with a network flow model that simulated salinity levels and the routing of flow to consumptive uses and hydroelectric dams throughout the Basin. The results show that, under current water management institutions, the marginal value of streamflow in the Colorado River Basin is largely determined by nonconsumptive water uses, principally energy production, rather than by consumptive agricultural or municipal uses. The analysis demonstrates the importance of a systems framework in estimating the marginal value of streamflow.

Unified framework to evaluate panmixia and migration direction among multiple sampling locations.

PubMed

Beerli, Peter; Palczewski, Michal

2010-05-01

For many biological investigations, groups of individuals are genetically sampled from several geographic locations. These sampling locations often do not reflect the genetic population structure. We describe a framework using marginal likelihoods to compare and order structured population models, such as testing whether the sampling locations belong to the same randomly mating population or comparing unidirectional and multidirectional gene flow models. In the context of inferences employing Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, the accuracy of the marginal likelihoods depends heavily on the approximation method used to calculate the marginal likelihood. Two methods, modified thermodynamic integration and a stabilized harmonic mean estimator, are compared. With finite Markov chain Monte Carlo run lengths, the harmonic mean estimator may not be consistent. Thermodynamic integration, in contrast, delivers considerably better estimates of the marginal likelihood. The choice of prior distributions does not influence the order and choice of the better models when the marginal likelihood is estimated using thermodynamic integration, whereas with the harmonic mean estimator the influence of the prior is pronounced and the order of the models changes. The approximation of marginal likelihood using thermodynamic integration in MIGRATE allows the evaluation of complex population genetic models, not only of whether sampling locations belong to a single panmictic population, but also of competing complex structured population models.

Marginal and Random Intercepts Models for Longitudinal Binary Data With Examples From Criminology.

PubMed

Long, Jeffrey D; Loeber, Rolf; Farrington, David P

2009-01-01

Two models for the analysis of longitudinal binary data are discussed: the marginal model and the random intercepts model. In contrast to the linear mixed model (LMM), the two models for binary data are not subsumed under a single hierarchical model. The marginal model provides group-level information whereas the random intercepts model provides individual-level information including information about heterogeneity of growth. It is shown how a type of numerical averaging can be used with the random intercepts model to obtain group-level information, thus approximating individual and marginal aspects of the LMM. The types of inferences associated with each model are illustrated with longitudinal criminal offending data based on N = 506 males followed over a 22-year period. Violent offending indexed by official records and self-report were analyzed, with the marginal model estimated using generalized estimating equations and the random intercepts model estimated using maximum likelihood. The results show that the numerical averaging based on the random intercepts can produce prediction curves almost identical to those obtained directly from the marginal model parameter estimates. The results provide a basis for contrasting the models and the estimation procedures and key features are discussed to aid in selecting a method for empirical analysis.

The Transition from Volcanic to Rift Dominated Crustal Breakup - From the Vøring Plateau to the Lofoten Margin, Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breivik, A. J.; Faleide, J. I.; Mjelde, R.; Flueh, E.; Murai, Y.

2017-12-01

The Vøring Plateau was part of the Northeast Atlantic igneous province (NAIP) during early Cenozoic crustal breakup. Crustal breakup at the Vøring Plateau occurred marginal to the deep Cretaceous basins on the shelf, with less extension of the crust. Intrusive magmatism and oceanic crust up to three times normal thickness caused a period of sub-aerial magmatism around breakup time. The transition to the Lofoten Margin is rapid to a deep-water plain. Still, there is some excess magmatism north of this transition, where early oceanic crustal thickness is reduced to half of that of the Vøring Plateau 150 km away. Our estimates of the earliest seafloor spreading rates using new ship-track magnetic profiles on different margin segments offer a clue to what caused this rapid transition. While crustal breakup occurred within the magnetic polarity C24r in other parts of the NAIP, there is a delayed breakup for the Lofoten/Vesterålen margin. Modeling of the earliest seafloor spreading with geomagnetic reversals, indicate a breakup within C24n.3n (anomaly 24b), approximately 1 m.y. later. Both old wide-angle seismic models (from Ocean Bottom Seismometers) off southern Lofoten and a newly published profile farther north show a strongly extended outer margin. Applying early seafloor half-spreading rates ( 30 mm/y) from other NAIP margin segments for 1 m.y. can account for 30 km extra extension, giving a factor of three crustal thinning, and gives a high strain rate of 3.2 ·10-14. Crustal breakup at the magma-poor Iberian Margin occurred at a low strain rate of 4.4·10-15, allowing the ascending mantle to cool, favoring tectonic extension over magmatism. Similar strain rates are found within the main Ethiopian Rift, but there is much magmatism and crustal separation is dominated by dike injection. Mantle tomography models show an exceptionally low seismic velocity below the area interpreted as an unusually hot upper mantle, which will favor magmatism. The transition from the Vøring Plateau to the Lofoten Margin can therefore be explained by the presence/absence of hot mantle plume material under the different segments during rifting. Only after significant extension and close to crustal breakup time did a minor amount of plume material reach the Lofoten/Vesterålen margin to cause some elevated but short-lived excess magmatism there.

A non-stationary cost-benefit based bivariate extreme flood estimation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo

2018-02-01

Cost-benefit analysis and flood frequency analysis have been integrated into a comprehensive framework to estimate cost effective design values. However, previous cost-benefit based extreme flood estimation is based on stationary assumptions and analyze dependent flood variables separately. A Non-Stationary Cost-Benefit based bivariate design flood estimation (NSCOBE) approach is developed in this study to investigate influence of non-stationarities in both the dependence of flood variables and the marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation. The dependence is modeled utilizing copula functions. Previous design flood selection criteria are not suitable for NSCOBE since they ignore time changing dependence of flood variables. Therefore, a risk calculation approach is proposed based on non-stationarities in both marginal probability distributions and copula functions. A case study with 54-year observed data is utilized to illustrate the application of NSCOBE. Results show NSCOBE can effectively integrate non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions into cost-benefit based design flood estimation. It is also found that there is a trade-off between maximum probability of exceedance calculated from copula functions and marginal distributions. This study for the first time provides a new approach towards a better understanding of influence of non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary bivariate design flood estimation across the world.

Exponentially convergent state estimation for delayed switched recurrent neural networks.

PubMed

Ahn, Choon Ki

2011-11-01

This paper deals with the delay-dependent exponentially convergent state estimation problem for delayed switched neural networks. A set of delay-dependent criteria is derived under which the resulting estimation error system is exponentially stable. It is shown that the gain matrix of the proposed state estimator is characterised in terms of the solution to a set of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), which can be checked readily by using some standard numerical packages. An illustrative example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed state estimator.

Recent results of nonlinear estimators applied to hereditary systems.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schiess, J. R.; Roland, V. R.; Wells, W. R.

1972-01-01

An application of the extended Kalman filter to delayed systems to estimate the state and time delay is presented. Two nonlinear estimators are discussed and the results compared with those of the Kalman filter. For all the filters considered, the hereditary system was treated with the delay in the pure form and by using Pade approximations of the delay. A summary of the convergence properties of the filters studied is given. The results indicate that the linear filter applied to the delayed system performs inadequately while the nonlinear filters provide reasonable estimates of both the state and the parameters.

Context-specific, evidence-based planning for scale-up of family planning services to increase progress to MDG 5: health systems research.

PubMed

Byrne, Abbey; Morgan, Alison; Soto, Eliana Jimenez; Dettrick, Zoe

2012-11-12

Unmet need for family planning is responsible for 7.4 million disability-adjusted life years and 30% of the maternity-related disease burden. An estimated 35% of births are unintended and some 200 million couples state a desire to delay pregnancy or cease fertility but are not using contraception. Unmet need is higher among the poorest, lesser educated, rural residents and women under 19 years. The barriers to, and successful strategies for, satisfying all demand for modern contraceptives are heavily influenced by context. Successfully overcoming this to increase the uptake of family planning is estimated to reduce the risk of maternal death by up to 58% as well as contribute to poverty reduction, women's empowerment and educational, social and economic participation, national development and environmental protection. To strengthen health systems for delivery of context-specific, equity-focused reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health services (RMNCH), the Investment Case study was applied in the Asia-Pacific region. Staff of local and central government and non-government organisations analysed data indicative of health service delivery through a supply-demand oriented framework to identify constraints to RMNCH scale-up. Planners developed contextualised strategies and the projected coverage increases were modelled for estimates of marginal impact on maternal mortality and costs over a five year period. In Indonesia, Philippines and Nepal the constraints behind incomplete coverage of family planning services included: weaknesses in commodities logistic management; geographical inaccessibility; limitations in health worker skills and numbers; legislation; and religious and cultural ideologies. Planned activities included: streamlining supply systems; establishment of Community Health Teams for integrated RMNCH services; local recruitment of staff and refresher training; task-shifting; and follow-up cards. Modelling showed varying marginal impact and costs for each setting with potential for significant reductions in the maternal mortality rate; up to 28% (25.1-30.7) over five years, costing up to a marginal USD 1.34 (1.32-1.35) per capita in the first year. Local health planners are in a prime position to devise feasible context-specific activities to overcome constraints and increase met need for family planning to accelerate progress towards MDG 5.

Automated delay estimation at signalized intersections : phase I concept and algorithm development.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-07-01

Currently there are several methods to measure the performance of surface streets, but their capabilities in dynamically estimating vehicle delay are limited. The objective of this research is to develop a method to automate traffic delay estimation ...

Estimating the circuit delay of FPGA with a transfer learning method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Xiuhai; Liu, Datong; Peng, Yu; Peng, Xiyuan

2017-10-01

With the increase of FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array, FPGA) functionality, FPGA has become an on-chip system platform. Due to increase the complexity of FPGA, estimating the delay of FPGA is a very challenge work. To solve the problems, we propose a transfer learning estimation delay (TLED) method to simplify the delay estimation of different speed grade FPGA. In fact, the same style different speed grade FPGA comes from the same process and layout. The delay has some correlation among different speed grade FPGA. Therefore, one kind of speed grade FPGA is chosen as a basic training sample in this paper. Other training samples of different speed grade can get from the basic training samples through of transfer learning. At the same time, we also select a few target FPGA samples as training samples. A general predictive model is trained by these samples. Thus one kind of estimation model is used to estimate different speed grade FPGA circuit delay. The framework of TRED includes three phases: 1) Building a basic circuit delay library which includes multipliers, adders, shifters, and so on. These circuits are used to train and build the predictive model. 2) By contrasting experiments among different algorithms, the forest random algorithm is selected to train predictive model. 3) The target circuit delay is predicted by the predictive model. The Artix-7, Kintex-7, and Virtex-7 are selected to do experiments. Each of them includes -1, -2, -2l, and -3 different speed grade. The experiments show the delay estimation accuracy score is more than 92% with the TLED method. This result shows that the TLED method is a feasible delay assessment method, especially in the high-level synthesis stage of FPGA tool, which is an efficient and effective delay assessment method.

IRT Item Parameter Recovery with Marginal Maximum Likelihood Estimation Using Loglinear Smoothing Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Casabianca, Jodi M.; Lewis, Charles

2015-01-01

Loglinear smoothing (LLS) estimates the latent trait distribution while making fewer assumptions about its form and maintaining parsimony, thus leading to more precise item response theory (IRT) item parameter estimates than standard marginal maximum likelihood (MML). This article provides the expectation-maximization algorithm for MML estimation…

Improved Margin of Error Estimates for Proportions in Business: An Educational Example

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arzumanyan, George; Halcoussis, Dennis; Phillips, G. Michael

2015-01-01

This paper presents the Agresti & Coull "Adjusted Wald" method for computing confidence intervals and margins of error for common proportion estimates. The presented method is easily implementable by business students and practitioners and provides more accurate estimates of proportions particularly in extreme samples and small…

Optimal estimation of parameters and states in stochastic time-varying systems with time delay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torkamani, Shahab; Butcher, Eric A.

2013-08-01

In this study estimation of parameters and states in stochastic linear and nonlinear delay differential systems with time-varying coefficients and constant delay is explored. The approach consists of first employing a continuous time approximation to approximate the stochastic delay differential equation with a set of stochastic ordinary differential equations. Then the problem of parameter estimation in the resulting stochastic differential system is represented as an optimal filtering problem using a state augmentation technique. By adapting the extended Kalman-Bucy filter to the resulting system, the unknown parameters of the time-delayed system are estimated from noise-corrupted, possibly incomplete measurements of the states.

Recovery of Item Parameters in the Nominal Response Model: A Comparison of Marginal Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wollack, James A.; Bolt, Daniel M.; Cohen, Allan S.; Lee, Young-Sun

2002-01-01

Compared the quality of item parameter estimates for marginal maximum likelihood (MML) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with the nominal response model using simulation. The quality of item parameter recovery was nearly identical for MML and MCMC, and both methods tended to produce good estimates. (SLD)

Very long baseline IPS observations of the solar wind speed in the fast polar streams

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rao, A. Pramesh; Ananthakrishnan, S.; Balasubramanian, V.; Coles, William A.

1995-01-01

Observations of intensity scintillation (IPS) with two or more spaced antennas have been widely used to measure the solar wind velocity. Such methods are particularly valuable in regions which spacecraft have not yet penetrated, but they are also very useful in improving the spatial temporal sampling of the solar wind, even in regions where spacecraft data are available. The principle of the measurement is to measure the time delay tau(sub d) between the scintillations observed with an antenna baseline b. The velocity estimate is just V = b/tau(sub d). The error in estimation of the time delay delta tau(sub d) is independent of the baseline length, thus the error in the velocity estimate delta V given by delta(V)/V approximately equals to (delta tau(sub d))/tau(sub d) is inversely proportional to tau(sub d) and hence to b. However the use of a long baseline b has a less obvious advantage; it provides a means for separating fast and slow contributions when both are present in the scattering region. Here we will present recent observations made using the large cylinder antenna at Ooty in the Nilgiri Hills of South India, and one of the 45 m dishes of GMRT near Pune in West-Central India. The baseline of 900 km is, by a considerable margin, the longest ever used for IPS and provides excellent velocity resolution. These results compared with the ULYSSES observations and other IPS measurements made closer to the sun with higher frequency instruments such as EISCAT and the VLBA will provide a precise measure of the velocity profile of the fast north-polar stream.

Estimation of marginal abatement costs of CO2 in Chinese provinces under 2020 carbon emission rights allocation: 2005-2020.

PubMed

Duan, Fumei; Wang, Yong; Wang, Ying; Zhao, Han

2018-06-16

The calculation of marginal abatement costs of CO 2 plays a vital role in meeting China's 2020 emission reduction targets by providing reference for determining carbon tax and carbon trading pricing. However, most existing researches only used one method to discuss regional and industrial marginal abatement costs, and almost no studies predicted future marginal abatement costs from the perspective of CO 2 emission efficiency. To make up for the gaps, this paper first estimates marginal abatement costs of CO 2 in three major industries of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2015 based on three assumptions. Second, based on the principle of fairness and efficiency, China's 2020 emission reduction targets are decomposed by province. Based on the ZSG-C-DDF model, the marginal abatement costs of CO 2 in all provinces in China in 2020 are estimated and compared with the marginal abatement costs of 2005 to 2015. The results show that (1) from 2005 to 2015, marginal abatement costs of CO 2 in all provinces show a fluctuating upward trend; (2) compared with the marginal abatement costs of primary industry or tertiary industry, most provinces have lower marginal abatement costs for secondary industry; and (3) the average marginal abatement costs of CO 2 for China in 2020 are 2766.882 Yuan/tonne for the 40% carbon intensity reduction target and 3334.836 Yuan/tonne for the 45% target, showing that the higher the emission reduction target, the higher the marginal abatement costs of CO 2 . (4) Overall, the average marginal abatement costs of CO 2 in China by 2020 are higher than those in 2005-2015. The empirical analysis in this paper can provide multiple references for environmental policy makers.

Using the Sampling Margin of Error to Assess the Interpretative Validity of Student Evaluations of Teaching

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

James, David E.; Schraw, Gregory; Kuch, Fred

2015-01-01

We present an equation, derived from standard statistical theory, that can be used to estimate sampling margin of error for student evaluations of teaching (SETs). We use the equation to examine the effect of sample size, response rates and sample variability on the estimated sampling margin of error, and present results in four tables that allow…

Multi-Cone Model for Estimating GPS Ionospheric Delays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sparks, Lawrence; Komjathy, Attila; Mannucci, Anthony

2009-01-01

The multi-cone model is a computational model for estimating ionospheric delays of Global Positioning System (GPS) signals. It is a direct descendant of the conical-domain model. A primary motivation for the development of this model is the need to find alternatives for modeling slant delays at low latitudes, where ionospheric behavior poses an acute challenge for GPS signal-delay estimates based upon the thin-shell model of the ionosphere.

Estimation of time- and state-dependent delays and other parameters in functional differential equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, K. A.

1988-01-01

A parameter estimation algorithm is developed which can be used to estimate unknown time- or state-dependent delays and other parameters (e.g., initial condition) appearing within a nonlinear nonautonomous functional differential equation. The original infinite dimensional differential equation is approximated using linear splines, which are allowed to move with the variable delay. The variable delays are approximated using linear splines as well. The approximation scheme produces a system of ordinary differential equations with nice computational properties. The unknown parameters are estimated within the approximating systems by minimizing a least-squares fit-to-data criterion. Convergence theorems are proved for time-dependent delays and state-dependent delays within two classes, which say essentially that fitting the data by using approximations will, in the limit, provide a fit to the data using the original system. Numerical test examples are presented which illustrate the method for all types of delay.

Estimation of time- and state-dependent delays and other parameters in functional differential equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, K. A.

1990-01-01

A parameter estimation algorithm is developed which can be used to estimate unknown time- or state-dependent delays and other parameters (e.g., initial condition) appearing within a nonlinear nonautonomous functional differential equation. The original infinite dimensional differential equation is approximated using linear splines, which are allowed to move with the variable delay. The variable delays are approximated using linear splines as well. The approximation scheme produces a system of ordinary differential equations with nice computational properties. The unknown parameters are estimated within the approximating systems by minimizing a least-squares fit-to-data criterion. Convergence theorems are proved for time-dependent delays and state-dependent delays within two classes, which say essentially that fitting the data by using approximations will, in the limit, provide a fit to the data using the original system. Numerical test examples are presented which illustrate the method for all types of delay.

[Estimation of the biological age in females of the taiga tick Ixodes persulcatus by changes in the body shape and surface of cuticle].

PubMed

Balashov, Iu S; Grigor'eva, L A; Leonovich, S A

2009-01-01

A method of visual estimation of the biological age of living hungry tick females by visible changes in the depth of marginal groove and the structure of the alloscutum cuticle during natural ageing is developed. In recently activated individuals, the body is convex and the marginal groove is exposed, demonstrating distinctly visible cuticular microfolds (Figs 1-4). In attenuated ticks, the body is flattened and marginal fold overlays the marginal groove, concealing cuticular microfolds (Figs 5-8).

Stator hub treatment study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wisler, D. C.; Hilvers, D. E.

1974-01-01

The results of an experimental research program to investigate the potential of improving compressor stall margin by the application of hub treatment are presented. Extensive tuft probing showed that the two-stage, 0.5 radius ratio compressor selected for the test was indeed hub critical. Circumferential groove and baffled wide blade angle slot hub treatments under the stators were tested. Performance measurements were made with total and static pressure probes, wall static pressure taps, flow angle measuring instrumentation and hot film anemometers. Stator hub treatment was not found to be effective in improving compressor stall margin by delaying the point of onset of rotating stall or in modifying compressor performance for any of the configurations tested. Extensive regions of separated flow were observed on the suction surface of the stators near the hub. However, the treatment did not delay the point where flow separation in the stator hub region becomes apparent.

The performance of different propensity score methods for estimating marginal hazard ratios.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C

2013-07-20

Propensity score methods are increasingly being used to reduce or minimize the effects of confounding when estimating the effects of treatments, exposures, or interventions when using observational or non-randomized data. Under the assumption of no unmeasured confounders, previous research has shown that propensity score methods allow for unbiased estimation of linear treatment effects (e.g., differences in means or proportions). However, in biomedical research, time-to-event outcomes occur frequently. There is a paucity of research into the performance of different propensity score methods for estimating the effect of treatment on time-to-event outcomes. Furthermore, propensity score methods allow for the estimation of marginal or population-average treatment effects. We conducted an extensive series of Monte Carlo simulations to examine the performance of propensity score matching (1:1 greedy nearest-neighbor matching within propensity score calipers), stratification on the propensity score, inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) using the propensity score, and covariate adjustment using the propensity score to estimate marginal hazard ratios. We found that both propensity score matching and IPTW using the propensity score allow for the estimation of marginal hazard ratios with minimal bias. Of these two approaches, IPTW using the propensity score resulted in estimates with lower mean squared error when estimating the effect of treatment in the treated. Stratification on the propensity score and covariate adjustment using the propensity score result in biased estimation of both marginal and conditional hazard ratios. Applied researchers are encouraged to use propensity score matching and IPTW using the propensity score when estimating the relative effect of treatment on time-to-event outcomes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

On-line estimation and compensation of measurement delay in GPS/SINS integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Tao; Wang, Wei

2008-10-01

The chief aim of this paper is to propose a simple on-line estimation and compensation method of GPS/SINS measurement delay. The causes of time delay for GPS/SINS integration are analyzed in this paper. New Kalman filter state equations augmented by measurement delay and modified measurement equations are derived. Based on an open-loop Kalman filter, several simulations are run, results of which show that by the proposed method, the estimation and compensation error of measurement delay is below 0.1s.

Models and analysis for multivariate failure time data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shih, Joanna Huang

The goal of this research is to develop and investigate models and analytic methods for multivariate failure time data. We compare models in terms of direct modeling of the margins, flexibility of dependency structure, local vs. global measures of association, and ease of implementation. In particular, we study copula models, and models produced by right neutral cumulative hazard functions and right neutral hazard functions. We examine the changes of association over time for families of bivariate distributions induced from these models by displaying their density contour plots, conditional density plots, correlation curves of Doksum et al, and local cross ratios of Oakes. We know that bivariate distributions with same margins might exhibit quite different dependency structures. In addition to modeling, we study estimation procedures. For copula models, we investigate three estimation procedures. the first procedure is full maximum likelihood. The second procedure is two-stage maximum likelihood. At stage 1, we estimate the parameters in the margins by maximizing the marginal likelihood. At stage 2, we estimate the dependency structure by fixing the margins at the estimated ones. The third procedure is two-stage partially parametric maximum likelihood. It is similar to the second procedure, but we estimate the margins by the Kaplan-Meier estimate. We derive asymptotic properties for these three estimation procedures and compare their efficiency by Monte-Carlo simulations and direct computations. For models produced by right neutral cumulative hazards and right neutral hazards, we derive the likelihood and investigate the properties of the maximum likelihood estimates. Finally, we develop goodness of fit tests for the dependency structure in the copula models. We derive a test statistic and its asymptotic properties based on the test of homogeneity of Zelterman and Chen (1988), and a graphical diagnostic procedure based on the empirical Bayes approach. We study the performance of these two methods using actual and computer generated data.

Estimation of delays and other parameters in nonlinear functional differential equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Banks, H. T.; Lamm, P. K. D.

1983-01-01

A spline-based approximation scheme for nonlinear nonautonomous delay differential equations is discussed. Convergence results (using dissipative type estimates on the underlying nonlinear operators) are given in the context of parameter estimation problems which include estimation of multiple delays and initial data as well as the usual coefficient-type parameters. A brief summary of some of the related numerical findings is also given.

Estimation of contrast agent bolus arrival delays for improved reproducibility of liver DCE MRI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chouhan, Manil D.; Bainbridge, Alan; Atkinson, David; Punwani, Shonit; Mookerjee, Rajeshwar P.; Lythgoe, Mark F.; Taylor, Stuart A.

2016-10-01

Delays between contrast agent (CA) arrival at the site of vascular input function (VIF) sampling and the tissue of interest affect dynamic contrast enhanced (DCE) MRI pharmacokinetic modelling. We investigate effects of altering VIF CA bolus arrival delays on liver DCE MRI perfusion parameters, propose an alternative approach to estimating delays and evaluate reproducibility. Thirteen healthy volunteers (28.7  ±  1.9 years, seven males) underwent liver DCE MRI using dual-input single compartment modelling, with reproducibility (n  =  9) measured at 7 days. Effects of VIF CA bolus arrival delays were assessed for arterial and portal venous input functions. Delays were pre-estimated using linear regression, with restricted free modelling around the pre-estimated delay. Perfusion parameters and 7 days reproducibility were compared using this method, freely modelled delays and no delays using one-way ANOVA. Reproducibility was assessed using Bland-Altman analysis of agreement. Maximum percent change relative to parameters obtained using zero delays, were  -31% for portal venous (PV) perfusion, +43% for total liver blood flow (TLBF), +3247% for hepatic arterial (HA) fraction, +150% for mean transit time and  -10% for distribution volume. Differences were demonstrated between the 3 methods for PV perfusion (p  =  0.0085) and HA fraction (p  <  0.0001), but not other parameters. Improved mean differences and Bland-Altman 95% Limits-of-Agreement for reproducibility of PV perfusion (9.3 ml/min/100 g, ±506.1 ml/min/100 g) and TLBF (43.8 ml/min/100 g, ±586.7 ml/min/100 g) were demonstrated using pre-estimated delays with constrained free modelling. CA bolus arrival delays cause profound differences in liver DCE MRI quantification. Pre-estimation of delays with constrained free modelling improved 7 days reproducibility of perfusion parameters in volunteers.

Estimating workers' marginal valuation of employer health benefits: would insured workers prefer more health insurance or higher wages?

PubMed

Royalty, Anne Beeson

2008-01-01

In recent years the cost of health insurance has been increasing much faster than wages. In the face of these rising costs, many employers will have to make difficult decisions about whether to cut back health benefits or to compensate workers with lower wages or lower wage growth. In this paper, we ask the question, "Which do workers value more -- one additional dollar's worth of health benefits or one more dollar in their pockets?" Using a new approach to obtaining estimates of insured workers' marginal valuation of health benefits this paper estimates how much, on average, employees value the marginal dollar paid by employers for their workers' health insurance. We find that insured workers value the marginal health premium dollar at significantly less than the marginal wage dollar. However, workers value insurance generosity very highly. The marginal dollar spent on health insurance that adds an additional dollar's worth of observable dimensions of plan generosity, such as lower deductibles or coverage of additional services, is valued at significantly more than one dollar.

Accelerated versus conventional fractionated postoperative radiotherapy for advanced head and neck cancer: results of a multicenter Phase III study.

PubMed

Sanguineti, Giuseppe; Richetti, Antonella; Bignardi, Mario; Corvo', Renzo; Gabriele, Pietro; Sormani, Maria Pia; Antognoni, Paolo

2005-03-01

To determine whether, in the postoperative setting, accelerated fractionation (AF) radiotherapy (RT) yields a superior locoregional control rate compared with conventional fractionation (CF) RT in locally advanced squamous cell carcinomas of the oral cavity, oropharynx, larynx, or hypopharynx. Patients from four institutions with one or more high-risk features (pT4, positive resection margins, pN >1, perineural/lymphovascular invasion, extracapsular extension, subglottic extension) after surgery were randomly assigned to either RT with one daily session of 2 Gy up to 60 Gy in 6 weeks or AF. Accelerated fractionation consisted of a "biphasic concomitant boost" schedule, with the boost delivered during the first and last weeks of treatment, to deliver 64 Gy in 5 weeks. Informed consent was obtained. The primary endpoint of the study was locoregional control. Analysis was on an intention-to-treat basis. From March 1994 to August 2000, 226 patients were randomized. At a median follow-up of 30.6 months (range, 0-110 months), 2-year locoregional control estimates were 80% +/- 4% for CF and 78% +/- 5% for AF (p = 0.52), and 2-year overall survival estimates were 67% +/- 5% for CF and 64% +/- 5% for AF (p = 0.84). The lack of difference in outcome between the two treatment arms was confirmed by multivariate analysis. However, interaction analysis with median values as cut-offs showed a trend for improved locoregional control for those patients who had a delay in starting RT and who were treated with AF compared with those with a similar delay but who were treated with CF (hazard ratio = 0.5, 95% confidence interval 0.2-1.1). Fifty percent of patients treated with AF developed confluent mucositis, compared with only 27% of those treated with CF (p = 0.006). However, mucositis duration was not different between arms. Although preliminary, actuarial Grade 3+ late toxicity estimates at 2 years were 18% +/- 4% and 27% +/- 6% for CF and AF, respectively (p = 0.10). Accelerated fractionation does not seem to be worthwhile for squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck after resection; however, AF might be an option for patients who delay starting RT.

Stability and delay sensitivity of neutral fractional-delay systems.

PubMed

Xu, Qi; Shi, Min; Wang, Zaihua

2016-08-01

This paper generalizes the stability test method via integral estimation for integer-order neutral time-delay systems to neutral fractional-delay systems. The key step in stability test is the calculation of the number of unstable characteristic roots that is described by a definite integral over an interval from zero to a sufficient large upper limit. Algorithms for correctly estimating the upper limits of the integral are given in two concise ways, parameter dependent or independent. A special feature of the proposed method is that it judges the stability of fractional-delay systems simply by using rough integral estimation. Meanwhile, the paper shows that for some neutral fractional-delay systems, the stability is extremely sensitive to the change of time delays. Examples are given for demonstrating the proposed method as well as the delay sensitivity.

SU-E-T-364: Estimating the Minimum Number of Patients Required to Estimate the Required Planning Target Volume Margins for Prostate Glands

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bakhtiari, M; Schmitt, J; Sarfaraz, M

2015-06-15

Purpose: To establish a minimum number of patients required to obtain statistically accurate Planning Target Volume (PTV) margins for prostate Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT). Methods: A total of 320 prostate patients, consisting of a total number of 9311 daily setups, were analyzed. These patients had gone under IMRT treatments. Daily localization was done using the skin marks and the proper shifts were determined by the CBCT to match the prostate gland. The Van Herk formalism is used to obtain the margins using the systematic and random setup variations. The total patient population was divided into different grouping sizes varyingmore » from 1 group of 320 patients to 64 groups of 5 patients. Each grouping was used to determine the average PTV margin and its associated standard deviation. Results: Analyzing all 320 patients lead to an average Superior-Inferior margin of 1.15 cm. The grouping with 10 patients per group (32 groups) resulted to an average PTV margin between 0.6–1.7 cm with the mean value of 1.09 cm and a standard deviation (STD) of 0.30 cm. As the number of patients in groups increases the mean value of average margin between groups tends to converge to the true average PTV of 1.15 cm and STD decreases. For groups of 20, 64, and 160 patients a Superior-Inferior margin of 1.12, 1.14, and 1.16 cm with STD of 0.22, 0.11, and 0.01 cm were found, respectively. Similar tendency was observed for Left-Right and Anterior-Posterior margins. Conclusion: The estimation of the required margin for PTV strongly depends on the number of patients studied. According to this study at least ∼60 patients are needed to calculate a statistically acceptable PTV margin for a criterion of STD < 0.1 cm. Numbers greater than ∼60 patients do little to increase the accuracy of the PTV margin estimation.« less

Effect of wet tropospheric path delays on estimation of geodetic baselines in the Gulf of California using the Global Positioning System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tralli, David M.; Dixon, Timothy H.; Stephens, Scott A.

1988-01-01

Surface Meteorological (SM) and Water Vapor Radiometer (WVR) measurements are used to provide an independent means of calibrating the GPS signal for the wet tropospheric path delay in a study of geodetic baseline measurements in the Gulf of California using GPS in which high tropospheric water vapor content yielded wet path delays in excess of 20 cm at zenith. Residual wet delays at zenith are estimated as constants and as first-order exponentially correlated stochastic processes. Calibration with WVR data is found to yield the best repeatabilities, with improved results possible if combined carrier phase and pseudorange data are used. Although SM measurements can introduce significant errors in baseline solutions if used with a simple atmospheric model and estimation of residual zenith delays as constants, SM calibration and stochastic estimation for residual zenith wet delays may be adequate for precise estimation of GPS baselines. For dry locations, WVRs may not be required to accurately model tropospheric effects on GPS baselines.

Comparison of Kalman filter estimates of zenith atmospheric path delays using the global positioning system and very long baseline interferometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tralli, David M.; Lichten, Stephen M.; Herring, Thomas A.

1992-01-01

Kalman filter estimates of zenith nondispersive atmospheric path delays at Westford, Massachusetts, Fort Davis, Texas, and Mojave, California, were obtained from independent analyses of data collected during January and February 1988 using the GPS and VLBI. The apparent accuracy of the path delays is inferred by examining the estimates and covariances from both sets of data. The ability of the geodetic data to resolve zenith path delay fluctuations is determined by comparing further the GPS Kalman filter estimates with corresponding wet path delays derived from water vapor radiometric data available at Mojave over two 8-hour data spans within the comparison period. GPS and VLBI zenith path delay estimates agree well within one standard deviation formal uncertainties (from 10-20 mm for GPS and 3-15 mm for VLBI) in four out of the five possible comparisons, with maximum differences of 5 and 21 mm over 8- to 12-hour data spans.

SU-E-J-188: Theoretical Estimation of Margin Necessary for Markerless Motion Tracking

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patel, R; Block, A; Harkenrider, M

2015-06-15

Purpose: To estimate the margin necessary to adequately cover the target using markerless motion tracking (MMT) of lung lesions given the uncertainty in tracking and the size of the target. Methods: Simulations were developed in Matlab to determine the effect of tumor size and tracking uncertainty on the margin necessary to achieve adequate coverage of the target. For simplicity, the lung tumor was approximated by a circle on a 2D radiograph. The tumor was varied in size from a diameter of 0.1 − 30 mm in increments of 0.1 mm. From our previous studies using dual energy markerless motion tracking,more » we estimated tracking uncertainties in x and y to have a standard deviation of 2 mm. A Gaussian was used to simulate the deviation between the tracked location and true target location. For each size tumor, 100,000 deviations were randomly generated, the margin necessary to achieve at least 95% coverage 95% of the time was recorded. Additional simulations were run for varying uncertainties to demonstrate the effect of the tracking accuracy on the margin size. Results: The simulations showed an inverse relationship between tumor size and margin necessary to achieve 95% coverage 95% of the time using the MMT technique. The margin decreased exponentially with target size. An increase in tracking accuracy expectedly showed a decrease in margin size as well. Conclusion: In our clinic a 5 mm expansion of the internal target volume (ITV) is used to define the planning target volume (PTV). These simulations show that for tracking accuracies in x and y better than 2 mm, the margin required is less than 5 mm. This simple simulation can provide physicians with a guideline estimation for the margin necessary for use of MMT clinically based on the accuracy of their tracking and the size of the tumor.« less

Matching the Statistical Model to the Research Question for Dental Caries Indices with Many Zero Counts.

PubMed

Preisser, John S; Long, D Leann; Stamm, John W

2017-01-01

Marginalized zero-inflated count regression models have recently been introduced for the statistical analysis of dental caries indices and other zero-inflated count data as alternatives to traditional zero-inflated and hurdle models. Unlike the standard approaches, the marginalized models directly estimate overall exposure or treatment effects by relating covariates to the marginal mean count. This article discusses model interpretation and model class choice according to the research question being addressed in caries research. Two data sets, one consisting of fictional dmft counts in 2 groups and the other on DMFS among schoolchildren from a randomized clinical trial comparing 3 toothpaste formulations to prevent incident dental caries, are analyzed with negative binomial hurdle, zero-inflated negative binomial, and marginalized zero-inflated negative binomial models. In the first example, estimates of treatment effects vary according to the type of incidence rate ratio (IRR) estimated by the model. Estimates of IRRs in the analysis of the randomized clinical trial were similar despite their distinctive interpretations. The choice of statistical model class should match the study's purpose, while accounting for the broad decline in children's caries experience, such that dmft and DMFS indices more frequently generate zero counts. Marginalized (marginal mean) models for zero-inflated count data should be considered for direct assessment of exposure effects on the marginal mean dental caries count in the presence of high frequencies of zero counts. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Matching the Statistical Model to the Research Question for Dental Caries Indices with Many Zero Counts

PubMed Central

Preisser, John S.; Long, D. Leann; Stamm, John W.

2017-01-01

Marginalized zero-inflated count regression models have recently been introduced for the statistical analysis of dental caries indices and other zero-inflated count data as alternatives to traditional zero-inflated and hurdle models. Unlike the standard approaches, the marginalized models directly estimate overall exposure or treatment effects by relating covariates to the marginal mean count. This article discusses model interpretation and model class choice according to the research question being addressed in caries research. Two datasets, one consisting of fictional dmft counts in two groups and the other on DMFS among schoolchildren from a randomized clinical trial (RCT) comparing three toothpaste formulations to prevent incident dental caries, are analysed with negative binomial hurdle (NBH), zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB), and marginalized zero-inflated negative binomial (MZINB) models. In the first example, estimates of treatment effects vary according to the type of incidence rate ratio (IRR) estimated by the model. Estimates of IRRs in the analysis of the RCT were similar despite their distinctive interpretations. Choice of statistical model class should match the study’s purpose, while accounting for the broad decline in children’s caries experience, such that dmft and DMFS indices more frequently generate zero counts. Marginalized (marginal mean) models for zero-inflated count data should be considered for direct assessment of exposure effects on the marginal mean dental caries count in the presence of high frequencies of zero counts. PMID:28291962

Genealogical Working Distributions for Bayesian Model Testing with Phylogenetic Uncertainty

PubMed Central

Baele, Guy; Lemey, Philippe; Suchard, Marc A.

2016-01-01

Marginal likelihood estimates to compare models using Bayes factors frequently accompany Bayesian phylogenetic inference. Approaches to estimate marginal likelihoods have garnered increased attention over the past decade. In particular, the introduction of path sampling (PS) and stepping-stone sampling (SS) into Bayesian phylogenetics has tremendously improved the accuracy of model selection. These sampling techniques are now used to evaluate complex evolutionary and population genetic models on empirical data sets, but considerable computational demands hamper their widespread adoption. Further, when very diffuse, but proper priors are specified for model parameters, numerical issues complicate the exploration of the priors, a necessary step in marginal likelihood estimation using PS or SS. To avoid such instabilities, generalized SS (GSS) has recently been proposed, introducing the concept of “working distributions” to facilitate—or shorten—the integration process that underlies marginal likelihood estimation. However, the need to fix the tree topology currently limits GSS in a coalescent-based framework. Here, we extend GSS by relaxing the fixed underlying tree topology assumption. To this purpose, we introduce a “working” distribution on the space of genealogies, which enables estimating marginal likelihoods while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty. We propose two different “working” distributions that help GSS to outperform PS and SS in terms of accuracy when comparing demographic and evolutionary models applied to synthetic data and real-world examples. Further, we show that the use of very diffuse priors can lead to a considerable overestimation in marginal likelihood when using PS and SS, while still retrieving the correct marginal likelihood using both GSS approaches. The methods used in this article are available in BEAST, a powerful user-friendly software package to perform Bayesian evolutionary analyses. PMID:26526428

High-resolution correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, D. J.

2007-09-01

In the basic correlation process a sequence of time-lag-indexed correlation coefficients are computed as the inner or dot product of segments of two signals. The time-lag(s) for which the magnitude of the correlation coefficient sequence is maximized is the estimated relative time delay of the two signals. For discrete sampled signals, the delay estimated in this manner is quantized with the same relative accuracy as the clock used in sampling the signals. In addition, the correlation coefficients are real if the input signals are real. There have been many methods proposed to estimate signal delay to more accuracy than the sample interval of the digitizer clock, with some success. These methods include interpolation of the correlation coefficients, estimation of the signal delay from the group delay function, and beam forming techniques, such as the MUSIC algorithm. For spectral estimation, techniques based on phase differentiation have been popular, but these techniques have apparently not been applied to the correlation problem . We propose a phase based delay estimation method (PBDEM) based on the phase of the correlation function that provides a significant improvement of the accuracy of time delay estimation. In the process, the standard correlation function is first calculated. A time lag error function is then calculated from the correlation phase and is used to interpolate the correlation function. The signal delay is shown to be accurately estimated as the zero crossing of the correlation phase near the index of the peak correlation magnitude. This process is nearly as fast as the conventional correlation function on which it is based. For real valued signals, a simple modification is provided, which results in the same correlation accuracy as is obtained for complex valued signals.

Heterogeneity of residuals from comparison of GNSS and raytracing based troposphere slant total delays, as an indicator of hydrometeors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hordyniec, Paweł; Rohm, Witold; Kapłon, Jan

2017-04-01

Post-fit residuals from Precise Point Positioning (PPP) carry the troposphere information except of multipath and residual antenna Phase Centre Variations (PCVs), when precise satellite orbits and clocks were introduced. Slant total delay (STD) of GNSS signal is a sum of a priori slant hydrostatic delay, estimated wet delay, asymetry introduced by the estimated zenith total delay (ZTD) horizontal gradients and a post-fit residual reduced by the systematic (site-dependant) effect. It was revealed, that application of reduced post-fit residuls to the slant total delays obtained from GNSS data processing increases the discrepancy with slant delays from raytracing (RT) through the Numerical Weather Model (NWM). One of the possible sources of that effect is neglected influence of hydrometeors in raytracing procedures. If the assumption of hydrometeor information existence in the PPP post-fit residuals is correct, we expect the diversity of slant delay discrepancies for satellite-receiver rays pointing or not the hydrometeors. Paper presents the spatial and temporal correlation analysis of the slant delay residuals (GNSS - RT) with hydrometeor phenomena recorded during the COST ES1206 GNSS4SWEC benchmark period (May 5th - June 29th, 2013). It presents the discussion of the results from different GNSS PPP slant delay estimation approaches including coordinates unconstraining or heavy constraining, and the calculation of slant delays with and without ZTD horizontal gradients estimation.

Comparison study on disturbance estimation techniques in precise slow motion control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, S.; Nagamune, R.; Altintas, Y.; Fan, D.; Zhang, Z.

2010-08-01

Precise low speed motion control is important for the industrial applications of both micro-milling machine tool feed drives and electro-optical tracking servo systems. It calls for precise position and instantaneous velocity measurement and disturbance, which involves direct drive motor force ripple, guide way friction and cutting force etc., estimation. This paper presents a comparison study on dynamic response and noise rejection performance of three existing disturbance estimation techniques, including the time-delayed estimators, the state augmented Kalman Filters and the conventional disturbance observers. The design technique essentials of these three disturbance estimators are introduced. For designing time-delayed estimators, it is proposed to substitute Kalman Filter for Luenberger state observer to improve noise suppression performance. The results show that the noise rejection performances of the state augmented Kalman Filters and the time-delayed estimators are much better than the conventional disturbance observers. These two estimators can give not only the estimation of the disturbance but also the low noise level estimations of position and instantaneous velocity. The bandwidth of the state augmented Kalman Filters is wider than the time-delayed estimators. In addition, the state augmented Kalman Filters can give unbiased estimations of the slow varying disturbance and the instantaneous velocity, while the time-delayed estimators can not. The simulation and experiment conducted on X axis of a 2.5-axis prototype micro milling machine are provided.

Joint Symbol Timing and CFO Estimation for OFDM/OQAM Systems in Multipath Channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fusco, Tilde; Petrella, Angelo; Tanda, Mario

2009-12-01

The problem of data-aided synchronization for orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) systems based on offset quadrature amplitude modulation (OQAM) in multipath channels is considered. In particular, the joint maximum-likelihood (ML) estimator for carrier-frequency offset (CFO), amplitudes, phases, and delays, exploiting a short known preamble, is derived. The ML estimators for phases and amplitudes are in closed form. Moreover, under the assumption that the CFO is sufficiently small, a closed form approximate ML (AML) CFO estimator is obtained. By exploiting the obtained closed form solutions a cost function whose peaks provide an estimate of the delays is derived. In particular, the symbol timing (i.e., the delay of the first multipath component) is obtained by considering the smallest estimated delay. The performance of the proposed joint AML estimator is assessed via computer simulations and compared with that achieved by the joint AML estimator designed for AWGN channel and that achieved by a previously derived joint estimator for OFDM systems.

Marginal economic value of streamflow: A case study for the Colorado River Basin

Treesearch

Thomas C. Brown; Benjamin L. Harding; Elizabeth A. Payton

1990-01-01

The marginal economic value of streamflow leaving forested areas in the Colorado River Basin was estimated by determining the impact on water use of a small change in streamflow and then applying economic value estimates to the water use changes. The effect on water use of a change in streamflow was estimated with a network flow model that simulated salinity levels and...

Genomic estimation of complex traits reveals ancient maize adaptation to temperate North America.

PubMed

Swarts, Kelly; Gutaker, Rafal M; Benz, Bruce; Blake, Michael; Bukowski, Robert; Holland, James; Kruse-Peeples, Melissa; Lepak, Nicholas; Prim, Lynda; Romay, M Cinta; Ross-Ibarra, Jeffrey; Sanchez-Gonzalez, Jose de Jesus; Schmidt, Chris; Schuenemann, Verena J; Krause, Johannes; Matson, R G; Weigel, Detlef; Buckler, Edward S; Burbano, Hernán A

2017-08-04

By 4000 years ago, people had introduced maize to the southwestern United States; full agriculture was established quickly in the lowland deserts but delayed in the temperate highlands for 2000 years. We test if the earliest upland maize was adapted for early flowering, a characteristic of modern temperate maize. We sequenced fifteen 1900-year-old maize cobs from Turkey Pen Shelter in the temperate Southwest. Indirectly validated genomic models predicted that Turkey Pen maize was marginally adapted with respect to flowering, as well as short, tillering, and segregating for yellow kernel color. Temperate adaptation drove modern population differentiation and was selected in situ from ancient standing variation. Validated prediction of polygenic traits improves our understanding of ancient phenotypes and the dynamics of environmental adaptation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

State estimation for distributed systems with sensing delay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, Harold L.

1991-08-01

Control of complex systems such as remote robotic vehicles requires combining data from many sensors where the data may often be delayed by sensory processing requirements. The number and variety of sensors make it desirable to distribute the computational burden of sensing and estimation among multiple processors. Classic Kalman filters do not lend themselves to distributed implementations or delayed measurement data. The alternative Kalman filter designs presented in this paper are adapted for delays in sensor data generation and for distribution of computation for sensing and estimation over a set of networked processors.

Estimating the Cost of Standardized Student Testing in the United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phelps, Richard P.

2000-01-01

Describes and contrasts different methods of estimating costs of standardized testing. Using a cost-accounting approach, compares gross and marginal costs and considers testing objects (test materials and services, personnel and student time, and administrative/building overhead). Social marginal costs of replacing existing tests with a national…

Context-specific, evidence-based planning for scale-up of family planning services to increase progress to MDG 5: health systems research

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Unmet need for family planning is responsible for 7.4 million disability-adjusted life years and 30% of the maternity-related disease burden. An estimated 35% of births are unintended and some 200 million couples state a desire to delay pregnancy or cease fertility but are not using contraception. Unmet need is higher among the poorest, lesser educated, rural residents and women under 19 years. The barriers to, and successful strategies for, satisfying all demand for modern contraceptives are heavily influenced by context. Successfully overcoming this to increase the uptake of family planning is estimated to reduce the risk of maternal death by up to 58% as well as contribute to poverty reduction, women’s empowerment and educational, social and economic participation, national development and environmental protection. Methods To strengthen health systems for delivery of context-specific, equity-focused reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health services (RMNCH), the Investment Case study was applied in the Asia-Pacific region. Staff of local and central government and non-government organisations analysed data indicative of health service delivery through a supply–demand oriented framework to identify constraints to RMNCH scale-up. Planners developed contextualised strategies and the projected coverage increases were modelled for estimates of marginal impact on maternal mortality and costs over a five year period. Results In Indonesia, Philippines and Nepal the constraints behind incomplete coverage of family planning services included: weaknesses in commodities logistic management; geographical inaccessibility; limitations in health worker skills and numbers; legislation; and religious and cultural ideologies. Planned activities included: streamlining supply systems; establishment of Community Health Teams for integrated RMNCH services; local recruitment of staff and refresher training; task-shifting; and follow-up cards. Modelling showed varying marginal impact and costs for each setting with potential for significant reductions in the maternal mortality rate; up to 28% (25.1-30.7) over five years, costing up to a marginal USD 1.34 (1.32-1.35) per capita in the first year. Conclusion Local health planners are in a prime position to devise feasible context-specific activities to overcome constraints and increase met need for family planning to accelerate progress towards MDG 5. PMID:23140196

Controller certification: The generalized stability margin inference for a large number of MIMO controllers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Jisang

In this dissertation, we investigate MIMO stability margin inference of a large number of controllers using pre-established stability margins of a small number of nu-gap-wise adjacent controllers. The generalized stability margin and the nu-gap metric are inherently able to handle MIMO system analysis without the necessity of repeating multiple channel-by-channel SISO analyses. This research consists of three parts: (i) development of a decision support tool for inference of the stability margin, (ii) computational considerations for yielding the maximal stability margin with the minimal nu-gap metric in a less conservative manner, and (iii) experiment design for estimating the generalized stability margin with an assured error bound. A modern problem from aerospace control involves the certification of a large set of potential controllers with either a single plant or a fleet of potential plant systems, with both plants and controllers being MIMO and, for the moment, linear. Experiments on a limited number of controller/plant pairs should establish the stability and a certain level of margin of the complete set. We consider this certification problem for a set of controllers and provide algorithms for selecting an efficient subset for testing. This is done for a finite set of candidate controllers and, at least for SISO plants, for an infinite set. In doing this, the nu-gap metric will be the main tool. We provide a theorem restricting a radius of a ball in the parameter space so that the controller can guarantee a prescribed level of stability and performance if parameters of the controllers are contained in the ball. Computational examples are given, including one of certification of an aircraft engine controller. The overarching aim is to introduce truly MIMO margin calculations and to understand their efficacy in certifying stability over a set of controllers and in replacing legacy single-loop gain and phase margin calculations. We consider methods for the computation of; maximal MIMO stability margins bP̂,C, minimal nu-gap metrics deltanu , and the maximal difference between these two values, through the use of scaling and weighting functions. We propose simultaneous scaling selections that attempt to maximize the generalized stability margin and minimize the nu-gap. The minimization of the nu-gap by scaling involves a non-convex optimization. We modify the XY-centering algorithm to handle this non-convexity. This is done for applications in controller certification. Estimating the generalized stability margin with an accurate error bound has significant impact on controller certification. We analyze an error bound of the generalized stability margin as the infinity norm of the MIMO empirical transfer function estimate (ETFE). Input signal design to reduce the error on the estimate is also studied. We suggest running the system for a certain amount of time prior to recording of each output data set. The assured upper bound of estimation error can be tuned by the amount of the pre-experiment.

Delay-distribution-dependent H∞ state estimation for delayed neural networks with (x,v)-dependent noises and fading channels.

PubMed

Sheng, Li; Wang, Zidong; Tian, Engang; Alsaadi, Fuad E

2016-12-01

This paper deals with the H ∞ state estimation problem for a class of discrete-time neural networks with stochastic delays subject to state- and disturbance-dependent noises (also called (x,v)-dependent noises) and fading channels. The time-varying stochastic delay takes values on certain intervals with known probability distributions. The system measurement is transmitted through fading channels described by the Rice fading model. The aim of the addressed problem is to design a state estimator such that the estimation performance is guaranteed in the mean-square sense against admissible stochastic time-delays, stochastic noises as well as stochastic fading signals. By employing the stochastic analysis approach combined with the Kronecker product, several delay-distribution-dependent conditions are derived to ensure that the error dynamics of the neuron states is stochastically stable with prescribed H ∞ performance. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the obtained results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the estimation of the reproduction number based on misreported epidemic data.

PubMed

Azmon, Amin; Faes, Christel; Hens, Niel

2014-03-30

Epidemic data often suffer from underreporting and delay in reporting. In this paper, we investigated the impact of delays and underreporting on estimates of reproduction number. We used a thinned version of the epidemic renewal equation to describe the epidemic process while accounting for the underlying reporting system. Assuming a constant reporting parameter, we used different delay patterns to represent the delay structure in our model. Instead of assuming a fixed delay distribution, we estimated the delay parameters while assuming a smooth function for the reproduction number over time. In order to estimate the parameters, we used a Bayesian semiparametric approach with penalized splines, allowing both flexibility and exact inference provided by MCMC. To show the performance of our method, we performed different simulation studies. We conducted sensitivity analyses to investigate the impact of misspecification of the delay pattern and the impact of assuming nonconstant reporting parameters on the estimates of the reproduction numbers. We showed that, whenever available, additional information about time-dependent underreporting can be taken into account. As an application of our method, we analyzed confirmed daily A(H1N1) v2009 cases made publicly available by the World Health Organization for Mexico and the USA. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Spatially Correlated Sparse MIMO Channel Path Delay Estimation in Scattering Environments Based on Signal Subspace Tracking

PubMed Central

Chargé, Pascal; Bazzi, Oussama; Ding, Yuehua

2018-01-01

A parametric scheme for spatially correlated sparse multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) channel path delay estimation in scattering environments is presented in this paper. In MIMO outdoor communication scenarios, channel impulse responses (CIRs) of different transmit–receive antenna pairs are often supposed to be sparse due to a few significant scatterers, and share a common sparse pattern, such that path delays are assumed to be equal for every transmit–receive antenna pair. In some existing works, an exact common support condition is exploited, where the path delays are considered equal for every transmit–receive antenna pair, meanwhile ignoring the influence of scattering. A more realistic channel model is proposed in this paper, where due to scatterers in the environment, the received signals are modeled as clusters of multi-rays around a nominal or mean time delay at different antenna elements, resulting in a non-strictly exact common support phenomenon. A method for estimating the channel mean path delays is then derived based on the subspace approach, and the tracking of the effective dimension of the signal subspace that changes due to the wireless environment. The proposed method shows an improved channel mean path delays estimation performance in comparison with the conventional estimation methods. PMID:29734797

Spatially Correlated Sparse MIMO Channel Path Delay Estimation in Scattering Environments Based on Signal Subspace Tracking.

PubMed

Mohydeen, Ali; Chargé, Pascal; Wang, Yide; Bazzi, Oussama; Ding, Yuehua

2018-05-06

A parametric scheme for spatially correlated sparse multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) channel path delay estimation in scattering environments is presented in this paper. In MIMO outdoor communication scenarios, channel impulse responses (CIRs) of different transmit⁻receive antenna pairs are often supposed to be sparse due to a few significant scatterers, and share a common sparse pattern, such that path delays are assumed to be equal for every transmit⁻receive antenna pair. In some existing works, an exact common support condition is exploited, where the path delays are considered equal for every transmit⁻receive antenna pair, meanwhile ignoring the influence of scattering. A more realistic channel model is proposed in this paper, where due to scatterers in the environment, the received signals are modeled as clusters of multi-rays around a nominal or mean time delay at different antenna elements, resulting in a non-strictly exact common support phenomenon. A method for estimating the channel mean path delays is then derived based on the subspace approach, and the tracking of the effective dimension of the signal subspace that changes due to the wireless environment. The proposed method shows an improved channel mean path delays estimation performance in comparison with the conventional estimation methods.

Single-blind randomized clinical trial to evaluate clinical and radiological outcomes after one year of immediate versus delayed implant placement supporting full-arch prostheses

PubMed Central

Pellicer-Chover, Hilario; Peñarrocha-Oltra, David; Bagán, Leticia; Fichy-Fernandez, Antonio J.; Canullo, Luigi

2014-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate and compare peri-implant health, marginal bone loss and success of immediate and delayed implant placement for rehabilitation with full-arch fixed prostheses. Material and Methods: The present study was a prospective, randomized, single-blind, clinical preliminary trial. Patients were randomized into two treatment groups. In Group A implants were placed immediately post-extraction and in Group B six months after extraction. The following control time-points were established: one week, six months and twelve months after loading. Measurements were taken of peri-implant crevicular fluid volume, plaque index, gingival retraction, keratinized mucosa, probing depth, modified gingival index and presence of mucositis. Implant success rates were evaluated for the two groups. The study sample included fifteen patients (nine women and six men) with a mean average age of 63.7 years. One hundred and forty-four implants were placed: 76 placed in healed sites and 68 placed immediately. Results: At the moment of prosthetic loading, keratinized mucosa width and probing depth were higher in immediate implants than delayed implants, with statistically significant differences. However, after six and twelve months, differences between groups had disappeared. Bone loss was 0.54 ± 0.39 mm for immediate implants and 0.66 ± 0.25 mm for delayed implants (p=0.201). No implants failed in either group. Conclusions: The present study with a short follow-up and a small sample yielded no statistically significant differences in implant success and peri-implant marginal bone loss between immediate and delayed implants with fixed full-arch prostheses. Peri-implant health showed no statistically significant differences for any of the studied parameters (crevicular fluid volume, plaque index, gingival retraction, keratinized mucosa, probing depth, modified gingival index and presence of mucositis) at the twelve-month follow-up. Key words:Immediate implants, delayed implants, peri-implant health, success rate. PMID:24316712

Comparison of Statistical Approaches Dealing with Time-dependent Confounding in Drug Effectiveness Studies

PubMed Central

Karim, Mohammad Ehsanul; Petkau, John; Gustafson, Paul; Platt, Robert W.; Tremlett, Helen

2017-01-01

In longitudinal studies, if the time-dependent covariates are affected by the past treatment, time-dependent confounding may be present. For a time-to-event response, marginal structural Cox models (MSCMs) are frequently used to deal with such confounding. To avoid some of the problems of fitting MSCM, the sequential Cox approach has been suggested as an alternative. Although the estimation mechanisms are different, both approaches claim to estimate the causal effect of treatment by appropriately adjusting for time-dependent confounding. We carry out simulation studies to assess the suitability of the sequential Cox approach for analyzing time-to-event data in the presence of a time-dependent covariate that may or may not be a time-dependent confounder. Results from these simulations revealed that the sequential Cox approach is not as effective as MSCM in addressing the time-dependent confounding. The sequential Cox approach was also found to be inadequate in the presence of a time-dependent covariate. We propose a modified version of the sequential Cox approach that correctly estimates the treatment effect in both of the above scenarios. All approaches are applied to investigate the impact of beta-interferon treatment in delaying disability progression in the British Columbia Multiple Sclerosis cohort (1995 – 2008). PMID:27659168

Enthalpy generation from mixing in hohlraum-driven targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amendt, Peter; Milovich, Jose

2016-10-01

The increase in enthalpy from the physical mixing of two initially separated materials is analytically estimated and applied to ICF implosions and gas-filled hohlraums. Pressure and temperature gradients across a classical interface are shown to be the origin of enthalpy generation from mixing. The amount of enthalpy generation is estimated to be on the order of 100 Joules for a 10 micron-scale annular mixing layer between the solid deuterium-tritium fuel and the undoped high-density carbon ablator of a NIF-scale implosion. A potential resonance is found between the mixing layer thickness and gravitational (Cs2/ g) and temperature-gradient scale lengths, leading to elevated enthalpy generation. These results suggest that if mixing occurs in current capsule designs for the National Ignition Facility, the ignition margin may be appreciably eroded by the associated enthalpy of mixing. The degree of enthalpy generation from mixing of high- Z hohlraum wall material and low- Z gas fills is estimated to be on the order of 100 kJ or more for recent NIF-scale hohlraum experiments, which is consistent with the inferred missing energy based on observed delays in capsule implosion times. Work performed under the auspices of Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC (LLNS) under Contract No. DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Elastic thickness estimates at northeast passive margin of North America and its implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, R. T. Ratheesh; Maji, Tanmay K.; Kandpal, Suresh Ch; Sengupta, D.; Nair, Rajesh R.

2011-06-01

Global estimates of the elastic thickness (Te) of the structure of passive continental margins show wide and varying results owing to the use of different methodologies. Earlier estimates of the elastic thickness of the North Atlantic passive continental margins that used flexural modelling yielded a Te value of ~20-100 km. Here, we compare these estimates with the Te value obtained using orthonormalized Hermite multitaper recovered isostatic coherence functions. We discuss how Te is correlated with heat flow distribution and depth of necking. The E-W segment in the southern study region comprising Nova Scotia and the Southern Grand Banks show low Te values, while the zones comprising the NE-SW zones, viz., Western Greenland, Labrador, Orphan Basin and the Northern Grand Bank show comparatively high Te values. As expected, Te broadly reflects the depth of the 200-400°C isotherm below the weak surface sediment layer at the time of loading, and at the margins most of the loading occurred during rifting. We infer that these low Te measurements indicate Te frozen into the lithosphere. This could be due to the passive nature of the margin when the loads were emplaced during the continental break-up process at high temperature gradients.

Analyzing Double Delays at Newark Liberty International Airport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, Antony D.; Lee, Paul

2016-01-01

When weather or congestion impacts the National Airspace System, multiple different Traffic Management Initiatives can be implemented, sometimes with unintended consequences. One particular inefficiency that is commonly identified is in the interaction between Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) and time based metering of internal departures, or TMA scheduling. Internal departures under TMA scheduling can take large GDP delays, followed by large TMA scheduling delays, because they cannot be easily fitted into the overhead stream. In this paper we examine the causes of these double delays through an analysis of arrival operations at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) from June to August 2010. Depending on how the double delay is defined between 0.3 percent and 0.8 percent of arrivals at EWR experienced double delays in this period. However, this represents between 21 percent and 62 percent of all internal departures in GDP and TMA scheduling. A deep dive into the data reveals that two causes of high internal departure scheduling delays are upstream flights making up time between their estimated departure clearance times (EDCTs) and entry into time based metering, which undermines the sequencing and spacing underlying the flight EDCTs, and high demand on TMA, when TMA airborne metering delays are high. Data mining methods (currently) including logistic regression, support vector machines and K-nearest neighbors are used to predict the occurrence of double delays and high internal departure scheduling delays with accuracies up to 0.68. So far, key indicators of double delay and high internal departure scheduling delay are TMA virtual runway queue size, and the degree to which estimated runway demand based on TMA estimated times of arrival has changed relative to the estimated runway demand based on EDCTs. However, more analysis is needed to confirm this.

Make the most of your samples: Bayes factor estimators for high-dimensional models of sequence evolution.

PubMed

Baele, Guy; Lemey, Philippe; Vansteelandt, Stijn

2013-03-06

Accurate model comparison requires extensive computation times, especially for parameter-rich models of sequence evolution. In the Bayesian framework, model selection is typically performed through the evaluation of a Bayes factor, the ratio of two marginal likelihoods (one for each model). Recently introduced techniques to estimate (log) marginal likelihoods, such as path sampling and stepping-stone sampling, offer increased accuracy over the traditional harmonic mean estimator at an increased computational cost. Most often, each model's marginal likelihood will be estimated individually, which leads the resulting Bayes factor to suffer from errors associated with each of these independent estimation processes. We here assess the original 'model-switch' path sampling approach for direct Bayes factor estimation in phylogenetics, as well as an extension that uses more samples, to construct a direct path between two competing models, thereby eliminating the need to calculate each model's marginal likelihood independently. Further, we provide a competing Bayes factor estimator using an adaptation of the recently introduced stepping-stone sampling algorithm and set out to determine appropriate settings for accurately calculating such Bayes factors, with context-dependent evolutionary models as an example. While we show that modest efforts are required to roughly identify the increase in model fit, only drastically increased computation times ensure the accuracy needed to detect more subtle details of the evolutionary process. We show that our adaptation of stepping-stone sampling for direct Bayes factor calculation outperforms the original path sampling approach as well as an extension that exploits more samples. Our proposed approach for Bayes factor estimation also has preferable statistical properties over the use of individual marginal likelihood estimates for both models under comparison. Assuming a sigmoid function to determine the path between two competing models, we provide evidence that a single well-chosen sigmoid shape value requires less computational efforts in order to approximate the true value of the (log) Bayes factor compared to the original approach. We show that the (log) Bayes factors calculated using path sampling and stepping-stone sampling differ drastically from those estimated using either of the harmonic mean estimators, supporting earlier claims that the latter systematically overestimate the performance of high-dimensional models, which we show can lead to erroneous conclusions. Based on our results, we argue that highly accurate estimation of differences in model fit for high-dimensional models requires much more computational effort than suggested in recent studies on marginal likelihood estimation.

Make the most of your samples: Bayes factor estimators for high-dimensional models of sequence evolution

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Accurate model comparison requires extensive computation times, especially for parameter-rich models of sequence evolution. In the Bayesian framework, model selection is typically performed through the evaluation of a Bayes factor, the ratio of two marginal likelihoods (one for each model). Recently introduced techniques to estimate (log) marginal likelihoods, such as path sampling and stepping-stone sampling, offer increased accuracy over the traditional harmonic mean estimator at an increased computational cost. Most often, each model’s marginal likelihood will be estimated individually, which leads the resulting Bayes factor to suffer from errors associated with each of these independent estimation processes. Results We here assess the original ‘model-switch’ path sampling approach for direct Bayes factor estimation in phylogenetics, as well as an extension that uses more samples, to construct a direct path between two competing models, thereby eliminating the need to calculate each model’s marginal likelihood independently. Further, we provide a competing Bayes factor estimator using an adaptation of the recently introduced stepping-stone sampling algorithm and set out to determine appropriate settings for accurately calculating such Bayes factors, with context-dependent evolutionary models as an example. While we show that modest efforts are required to roughly identify the increase in model fit, only drastically increased computation times ensure the accuracy needed to detect more subtle details of the evolutionary process. Conclusions We show that our adaptation of stepping-stone sampling for direct Bayes factor calculation outperforms the original path sampling approach as well as an extension that exploits more samples. Our proposed approach for Bayes factor estimation also has preferable statistical properties over the use of individual marginal likelihood estimates for both models under comparison. Assuming a sigmoid function to determine the path between two competing models, we provide evidence that a single well-chosen sigmoid shape value requires less computational efforts in order to approximate the true value of the (log) Bayes factor compared to the original approach. We show that the (log) Bayes factors calculated using path sampling and stepping-stone sampling differ drastically from those estimated using either of the harmonic mean estimators, supporting earlier claims that the latter systematically overestimate the performance of high-dimensional models, which we show can lead to erroneous conclusions. Based on our results, we argue that highly accurate estimation of differences in model fit for high-dimensional models requires much more computational effort than suggested in recent studies on marginal likelihood estimation. PMID:23497171

Wavelet Filtering to Reduce Conservatism in Aeroservoelastic Robust Stability Margins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brenner, Marty; Lind, Rick

1998-01-01

Wavelet analysis for filtering and system identification was used to improve the estimation of aeroservoelastic stability margins. The conservatism of the robust stability margins was reduced with parametric and nonparametric time-frequency analysis of flight data in the model validation process. Nonparametric wavelet processing of data was used to reduce the effects of external desirableness and unmodeled dynamics. Parametric estimates of modal stability were also extracted using the wavelet transform. Computation of robust stability margins for stability boundary prediction depends on uncertainty descriptions derived from the data for model validation. F-18 high Alpha Research Vehicle aeroservoelastic flight test data demonstrated improved robust stability prediction by extension of the stability boundary beyond the flight regime.

Temporary Losses of Highway Capacity and Impacts on Performance: Phase 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chin, S.M.

2004-11-10

Traffic congestion and its impacts significantly affect the nation's economic performance and the public's quality of life. In most urban areas, travel demand routinely exceeds highway capacity during peak periods. In addition, events such as crashes, vehicle breakdowns, work zones, adverse weather, railroad crossings, large trucks loading/unloading in urban areas, and other factors such as toll collection facilities and sub-optimal signal timing cause temporary capacity losses, often worsening the conditions on already congested highway networks. The impacts of these temporary capacity losses include delay, reduced mobility, and reduced reliability of the highway system. They can also cause drivers to re-routemore » or reschedule trips. Such information is vital to formulating sound public policies for the highway infrastructure and its operation. In response to this need, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, sponsored by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), made an initial attempt to provide nationwide estimates of the capacity losses and delay caused by temporary capacity-reducing events (Chin et al. 2002). This study, called the Temporary Loss of Capacity (TLC) study, estimated capacity loss and delay on freeways and principal arterials resulting from fatal and non-fatal crashes, vehicle breakdowns, and adverse weather, including snow, ice, and fog. In addition, it estimated capacity loss and delay caused by sub-optimal signal timing at intersections on principal arterials. It also included rough estimates of capacity loss and delay on Interstates due to highway construction and maintenance work zones. Capacity loss and delay were estimated for calendar year 1999, except for work zone estimates, which were estimated for May 2001 to May 2002 due to data availability limitations. Prior to the first phase of this study, which was completed in May of 2002, no nationwide estimates of temporary losses of highway capacity by type of capacity-reducing event had been made. This report describes the second phase of the TLC study (TLC2). TLC2 improves upon the first study by expanding the scope to include delays from rain, toll collection facilities, railroad crossings, and commercial truck pickup and delivery (PUD) activities in urban areas. It includes estimates of work zone capacity loss and delay for all freeways and principal arterials, rather than for Interstates only. It also includes improved estimates of delays caused by fog, snow, and ice, which are based on data not available during the initial phase of the study. Finally, computational errors involving crash and breakdown delay in the original TLC report are corrected.« less

Deletion Diagnostics for Alternating Logistic Regressions

PubMed Central

Preisser, John S.; By, Kunthel; Perin, Jamie; Qaqish, Bahjat F.

2013-01-01

Deletion diagnostics are introduced for the regression analysis of clustered binary outcomes estimated with alternating logistic regressions, an implementation of generalized estimating equations (GEE) that estimates regression coefficients in a marginal mean model and in a model for the intracluster association given by the log odds ratio. The diagnostics are developed within an estimating equations framework that recasts the estimating functions for association parameters based upon conditional residuals into equivalent functions based upon marginal residuals. Extensions of earlier work on GEE diagnostics follow directly, including computational formulae for one-step deletion diagnostics that measure the influence of a cluster of observations on the estimated regression parameters and on the overall marginal mean or association model fit. The diagnostic formulae are evaluated with simulations studies and with an application concerning an assessment of factors associated with health maintenance visits in primary care medical practices. The application and the simulations demonstrate that the proposed cluster-deletion diagnostics for alternating logistic regressions are good approximations of their exact fully iterated counterparts. PMID:22777960

Estimation of the Nonlinear Random Coefficient Model when Some Random Effects Are Separable

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

du Toit, Stephen H. C.; Cudeck, Robert

2009-01-01

A method is presented for marginal maximum likelihood estimation of the nonlinear random coefficient model when the response function has some linear parameters. This is done by writing the marginal distribution of the repeated measures as a conditional distribution of the response given the nonlinear random effects. The resulting distribution…

Estimation of heritability, evolvability and genetic correlations of two pollen and pistil traits involved in a sexual conflict over timing of stigma receptivity in Collinsia heterophylla (Plantaginaceae).

PubMed

Madjidian, Josefin A; Andersson, Stefan; Lankinen, Asa

2012-07-01

Heritable genetic variation is crucial for selection to operate, yet there is a paucity of studies quantifying such variation in interactive male/female sexual traits, especially those of plants. Previous work on the annual plant Collinsia heterophylla, a mixed-mating species, suggests that delayed stigma receptivity is involved in a sexual conflict: pollen from certain donors fertilize ovules earlier than others at the expense of reduced maternal seed set and lower levels of pollen competition. Parent-offspring regressions and sib analyses were performed to test for heritable genetic variation and co-variation in male and female interactive traits related to the sexual conflict. SOME heritable variation and evolvability were found for the female trait (delayed stigma receptivity in presence of pollen), but no evidence was found for genetic variation in the male trait (ability to fertilize ovules early). The results further indicated a marginally significant correlation between a male's ability to fertilize early and early stigma receptivity in offspring. However, despite potential indirect selection of these traits, antagonistic co-evolution may not occur given the lack of heritability of the male trait. To our knowledge, this is the first study of a plant or any hermaphrodite that examines patterns of genetic correlation between two interactive sexual traits, and also the first to assess heritabilities of plant traits putatively involved in a sexual conflict. It is concluded that the ability to delay fertilization in presence of pollen can respond to selection, while the pollen trait has lower evolutionary potential.

Some tests of wet tropospheric calibration for the CASA Uno Global Positioning System experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dixon, T. H.; Wolf, S. Kornreich

1990-01-01

Wet tropospheric path delay can be a major error source for Global Positioning System (GPS) geodetic experiments. Strategies for minimizing this error are investigted using data from CASA Uno, the first major GPS experiment in Central and South America, where wet path delays may be both high and variable. Wet path delay calibration using water vapor radiometers (WVRs) and residual delay estimation is compared with strategies where the entire wet path delay is estimated stochastically without prior calibration, using data from a 270-km test baseline in Costa Rica. Both approaches yield centimeter-level baseline repeatability and similar tropospheric estimates, suggesting that WVR calibration is not critical for obtaining high precision results with GPS in the CASA region.

Improving and Evaluating Nested Sampling Algorithm for Marginal Likelihood Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, M.; Zeng, X.; Wu, J.; Wang, D.; Liu, J.

2016-12-01

With the growing impacts of climate change and human activities on the cycle of water resources, an increasing number of researches focus on the quantification of modeling uncertainty. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) provides a popular framework for quantifying conceptual model and parameter uncertainty. The ensemble prediction is generated by combining each plausible model's prediction, and each model is attached with a model weight which is determined by model's prior weight and marginal likelihood. Thus, the estimation of model's marginal likelihood is crucial for reliable and accurate BMA prediction. Nested sampling estimator (NSE) is a new proposed method for marginal likelihood estimation. The process of NSE is accomplished by searching the parameters' space from low likelihood area to high likelihood area gradually, and this evolution is finished iteratively via local sampling procedure. Thus, the efficiency of NSE is dominated by the strength of local sampling procedure. Currently, Metropolis-Hasting (M-H) algorithm is often used for local sampling. However, M-H is not an efficient sampling algorithm for high-dimensional or complicated parameter space. For improving the efficiency of NSE, it could be ideal to incorporate the robust and efficient sampling algorithm - DREAMzs into the local sampling of NSE. The comparison results demonstrated that the improved NSE could improve the efficiency of marginal likelihood estimation significantly. However, both improved and original NSEs suffer from heavy instability. In addition, the heavy computation cost of huge number of model executions is overcome by using an adaptive sparse grid surrogates.

Comparison of histologic margin status in low-grade cutaneous and subcutaneous canine mast cell tumours examined by radial and tangential sections.

PubMed

Dores, C B; Milovancev, M; Russell, D S

2018-03-01

Radial sections are widely used to estimate adequacy of excision in canine cutaneous mast cell tumours (MCTs); however, this sectioning technique estimates only a small fraction of total margin circumference. This study aimed to compare histologic margin status in grade II/low grade MCTs sectioned using both radial and tangential sectioning techniques. A total of 43 circumferential margins were evaluated from 21 different tumours. Margins were first sectioned radially, followed by tangential sections. Tissues were examined by routine histopathology. Tangential margin status differed in 10 of 43 (23.3%) margins compared with their initial status on radial section. Of 39 margins, 9 (23.1%) categorized as histologic tumour-free margin (HTFM) >0 mm were positive on tangential sectioning. Tangential sections detected a significantly higher proportion of positive margins relative to radial sections (exact 2-tailed P-value = .0215). The HTFM was significantly longer in negative tangential margins than positive tangential margins (mean 10.1 vs 3.2 mm; P = .0008). A receiver operating characteristic curve comparing HTFM and tangentially negative margins found an area under the curve of 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.71-0.96). Although correct classification peaked at the sixth cut-point of HTFM ≥1 mm, radial sections still incorrectly classified 50% of margins as lacking tumour cells. Radial sections had 100% specificity for predicting negative tangential margins at a cut-point of 10.9 mm. These data indicate that for low grade MCTs, HTFMs >0 mm should not be considered completely excised, particularly when HTFM is <10.9 mm. This will inform future studies that use HTFM and overall excisional status as dependent variables in multivariable prognostic models. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Estimation of time-delayed mutual information and bias for irregularly and sparsely sampled time-series

PubMed Central

Albers, D. J.; Hripcsak, George

2012-01-01

A method to estimate the time-dependent correlation via an empirical bias estimate of the time-delayed mutual information for a time-series is proposed. In particular, the bias of the time-delayed mutual information is shown to often be equivalent to the mutual information between two distributions of points from the same system separated by infinite time. Thus intuitively, estimation of the bias is reduced to estimation of the mutual information between distributions of data points separated by large time intervals. The proposed bias estimation techniques are shown to work for Lorenz equations data and glucose time series data of three patients from the Columbia University Medical Center database. PMID:22536009

Simultaneous auto-calibration and gradient delays estimation (SAGE) in non-Cartesian parallel MRI using low-rank constraints.

PubMed

Jiang, Wenwen; Larson, Peder E Z; Lustig, Michael

2018-03-09

To correct gradient timing delays in non-Cartesian MRI while simultaneously recovering corruption-free auto-calibration data for parallel imaging, without additional calibration scans. The calibration matrix constructed from multi-channel k-space data should be inherently low-rank. This property is used to construct reconstruction kernels or sensitivity maps. Delays between the gradient hardware across different axes and RF receive chain, which are relatively benign in Cartesian MRI (excluding EPI), lead to trajectory deviations and hence data inconsistencies for non-Cartesian trajectories. These in turn lead to higher rank and corrupted calibration information which hampers the reconstruction. Here, a method named Simultaneous Auto-calibration and Gradient delays Estimation (SAGE) is proposed that estimates the actual k-space trajectory while simultaneously recovering the uncorrupted auto-calibration data. This is done by estimating the gradient delays that result in the lowest rank of the calibration matrix. The Gauss-Newton method is used to solve the non-linear problem. The method is validated in simulations using center-out radial, projection reconstruction and spiral trajectories. Feasibility is demonstrated on phantom and in vivo scans with center-out radial and projection reconstruction trajectories. SAGE is able to estimate gradient timing delays with high accuracy at a signal to noise ratio level as low as 5. The method is able to effectively remove artifacts resulting from gradient timing delays and restore image quality in center-out radial, projection reconstruction, and spiral trajectories. The low-rank based method introduced simultaneously estimates gradient timing delays and provides accurate auto-calibration data for improved image quality, without any additional calibration scans. © 2018 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

Theoretical foundations for traditional and generalized sensitivity functions for nonlinear delay differential equations.

PubMed

Banks, H Thomas; Robbins, Danielle; Sutton, Karyn L

2013-01-01

In this paper we present new results for differentiability of delay systems with respect to initial conditions and delays. After motivating our results with a wide range of delay examples arising in biology applications, we further note the need for sensitivity functions (both traditional and generalized sensitivity functions), especially in control and estimation problems. We summarize general existence and uniqueness results before turning to our main results on differentiation with respect to delays, etc. Finally we discuss use of our results in the context of estimation problems.

Advances in Adaptive Control Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, Nhan

2009-01-01

This poster presentation describes recent advances in adaptive control technology developed by NASA. Optimal Control Modification is a novel adaptive law that can improve performance and robustness of adaptive control systems. A new technique has been developed to provide an analytical method for computing time delay stability margin for adaptive control systems.

Application of ray-traced tropospheric slant delays to geodetic VLBI analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hofmeister, Armin; Böhm, Johannes

2017-08-01

The correction of tropospheric influences via so-called path delays is critical for the analysis of observations from space geodetic techniques like the very long baseline interferometry (VLBI). In standard VLBI analysis, the a priori slant path delays are determined using the concept of zenith delays, mapping functions and gradients. The a priori use of ray-traced delays, i.e., tropospheric slant path delays determined with the technique of ray-tracing through the meteorological data of numerical weather models (NWM), serves as an alternative way of correcting the influences of the troposphere on the VLBI observations within the analysis. In the presented research, the application of ray-traced delays to the VLBI analysis of sessions in a time span of 16.5 years is investigated. Ray-traced delays have been determined with program RADIATE (see Hofmeister in Ph.D. thesis, Department of Geodesy and Geophysics, Faculty of Mathematics and Geoinformation, Technische Universität Wien. http://resolver.obvsg.at/urn:nbn:at:at-ubtuw:1-3444, 2016) utilizing meteorological data provided by NWM of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). In comparison with a standard VLBI analysis, which includes the tropospheric gradient estimation, the application of the ray-traced delays to an analysis, which uses the same parameterization except for the a priori slant path delay handling and the used wet mapping factors for the zenith wet delay (ZWD) estimation, improves the baseline length repeatability (BLR) at 55.9% of the baselines at sub-mm level. If no tropospheric gradients are estimated within the compared analyses, 90.6% of all baselines benefit from the application of the ray-traced delays, which leads to an average improvement of the BLR of 1 mm. The effects of the ray-traced delays on the terrestrial reference frame are also investigated. A separate assessment of the RADIATE ray-traced delays is carried out by comparison to the ray-traced delays from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA GSFC) (Eriksson and MacMillan in http://lacerta.gsfc.nasa.gov/tropodelays, 2016) with respect to the analysis performances in terms of BLR results. If tropospheric gradient estimation is included in the analysis, 51.3% of the baselines benefit from the RADIATE ray-traced delays at sub-mm difference level. If no tropospheric gradients are estimated within the analysis, the RADIATE ray-traced delays deliver a better BLR at 63% of the baselines compared to the NASA GSFC ray-traced delays.

Geodesy by radio interferometry - Water vapor radiometry for estimation of the wet delay

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elgered, G.; Davis, J. L.; Herring, T. A.; Shapiro, I. I.

1991-01-01

An important source of error in VLBI estimates of baseline length is unmodeled variations of the refractivity of the neutral atmosphere along the propagation path of the radio signals. This paper presents and discusses the method of using data from a water vapor radiomete (WVR) to correct for the propagation delay caused by atmospheric water vapor, the major cause of these variations. Data from different WVRs are compared with estimated propagation delays obtained by Kalman filtering of the VLBI data themselves. The consequences of using either WVR data or Kalman filtering to correct for atmospheric propagation delay at the Onsala VLBI site are investigated by studying the repeatability of estimated baseline lengths from Onsala to several other sites. The repeatability obtained for baseline length estimates shows that the methods of water vapor radiometry and Kalman filtering offer comparable accuracies when applied to VLBI observations obtained in the climate of the Swedish west coast. For the most frequently measured baseline in this study, the use of WVR data yielded a 13 percent smaller weighted-root-mean-square (WRMS) scatter of the baseline length estimates compared to the use of a Kalman filter. It is also clear that the 'best' minimum elevationi angle for VLBI observations depends on the accuracy of the determinations of the total propagation delay to be used, since the error in this delay increases with increasing air mass.

Recovery of Graded Response Model Parameters: A Comparison of Marginal Maximum Likelihood and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kieftenbeld, Vincent; Natesan, Prathiba

2012-01-01

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods enable a fully Bayesian approach to parameter estimation of item response models. In this simulation study, the authors compared the recovery of graded response model parameters using marginal maximum likelihood (MML) and Gibbs sampling (MCMC) under various latent trait distributions, test lengths, and…

Estimation of nonlinear pilot model parameters including time delay.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schiess, J. R.; Roland, V. R.; Wells, W. R.

1972-01-01

Investigation of the feasibility of using a Kalman filter estimator for the identification of unknown parameters in nonlinear dynamic systems with a time delay. The problem considered is the application of estimation theory to determine the parameters of a family of pilot models containing delayed states. In particular, the pilot-plant dynamics are described by differential-difference equations of the retarded type. The pilot delay, included as one of the unknown parameters to be determined, is kept in pure form as opposed to the Pade approximations generally used for these systems. Problem areas associated with processing real pilot response data are included in the discussion.

Margin and sensitivity methods for security analysis of electric power systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greene, Scott L.

Reliable operation of large scale electric power networks requires that system voltages and currents stay within design limits. Operation beyond those limits can lead to equipment failures and blackouts. Security margins measure the amount by which system loads or power transfers can change before a security violation, such as an overloaded transmission line, is encountered. This thesis shows how to efficiently compute security margins defined by limiting events and instabilities, and the sensitivity of those margins with respect to assumptions, system parameters, operating policy, and transactions. Security margins to voltage collapse blackouts, oscillatory instability, generator limits, voltage constraints and line overloads are considered. The usefulness of computing the sensitivities of these margins with respect to interarea transfers, loading parameters, generator dispatch, transmission line parameters, and VAR support is established for networks as large as 1500 buses. The sensitivity formulas presented apply to a range of power system models. Conventional sensitivity formulas such as line distribution factors, outage distribution factors, participation factors and penalty factors are shown to be special cases of the general sensitivity formulas derived in this thesis. The sensitivity formulas readily accommodate sparse matrix techniques. Margin sensitivity methods are shown to work effectively for avoiding voltage collapse blackouts caused by either saddle node bifurcation of equilibria or immediate instability due to generator reactive power limits. Extremely fast contingency analysis for voltage collapse can be implemented with margin sensitivity based rankings. Interarea transfer can be limited by voltage limits, line limits, or voltage stability. The sensitivity formulas presented in this thesis apply to security margins defined by any limit criteria. A method to compute transfer margins by directly locating intermediate events reduces the total number of loadflow iterations required by each margin computation and provides sensitivity information at minimal additional cost. Estimates of the effect of simultaneous transfers on the transfer margins agree well with the exact computations for a network model derived from a portion of the U.S grid. The accuracy of the estimates over a useful range of conditions and the ease of obtaining the estimates suggest that the sensitivity computations will be of practical value.

Influence of obliquely subducting slab on Pacific-North America shear motion inferred from seismic anisotropy along the Queen Charlotte margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, L.; Kao, H.; Wang, K.; Wang, Z.

2016-12-01

Haida Gwaii is located along the transpressive Queen Charlotte margin between the Pacific (PA) and North America (NA) plates. The highly oblique relative plate motion is partitioned, with the strike-slip component accommodated by the Queen Charlotte Fault (QCF) and the convergent component by a thrust fault offshore. To understand how the presence of a obliquely subducting slab influences shear deformation of the plate boundary, we investigate mantle anisotropy by analyzing shear-wave splitting of teleseismic SKS phases recorded at 17 seismic stations in and around Haida Gwaii. We used the MFAST program to determine the polarization direction of the fast wave (φ) and the delay time (δt) between the fast and slow phases. The fast directions derived from stations on Haida Gwaii and two stations to the north on the Alaska Panhandle are predominantly margin-parallel (NNW). However, away from the plate boundary, the fast direction transitions to WSW-trending, very oblique or perpendicular to the plate boundary. Because the average delay time of 0.6-2.45 s is much larger than values based on an associated local S phase splitting analysis in the same study area, it is reasonable to infer that most of the anisotropy from our SKS analysis originates from the upper mantle and is associated with lattice-preferred orientation of anisotropic minerals. The margin-parallel fast direction within about 100 km of the QCF (average φ = -40º and δt = 1.2 s) is likely induced by the PA-NA shear motion. The roughly margin-normal fast directions farther away, although more scatterd, are consistent with that previously observed in the NA continent and are attributed to the absolute motion of the NA plate. However, the transition between the two regimes based on our SKS analysis appears to be gradual, suggesting that the plate boundary shear influences a much broader region at mantle depths than would be inferred from the surface trace of the QCF. We think this is due to the presence of a subducted portion of the Pacific plate. Because the slab travels mostly in the strike direction, it is expected to induce margin-parallel shear deformation of the mantle material. This result has importance implications to the geodynamics of transpressive plate margins.

Confidence in outcome estimates from systematic reviews used in informed consent.

PubMed

Fritz, Robert; Bauer, Janet G; Spackman, Sue S; Bains, Amanjyot K; Jetton-Rangel, Jeanette

2016-12-01

Evidence-based dentistry now guides informed consent in which clinicians are obliged to provide patients with the most current, best evidence, or best estimates of outcomes, of regimens, therapies, treatments, procedures, materials, and equipment or devices when developing personal oral health care, treatment plans. Yet, clinicians require that the estimates provided from systematic reviews be verified to their validity, reliability, and contextualized as to performance competency so that clinicians may have confidence in explaining outcomes to patients in clinical practice. The purpose of this paper was to describe types of informed estimates from which clinicians may have confidence in their capacity to assist patients in competent decision-making, one of the most important concepts of informed consent. Using systematic review methodology, researchers provide clinicians with valid best estimates of outcomes regarding a subject of interest from best evidence. Best evidence is verified through critical appraisals using acceptable sampling methodology either by scoring instruments (Timmer analysis) or checklist (grade), a Cochrane Collaboration standard that allows transparency in open reviews. These valid best estimates are then tested for reliability using large databases. Finally, valid and reliable best estimates are assessed for meaning using quantification of margins and uncertainties. Through manufacturer and researcher specifications, quantification of margins and uncertainties develops a performance competency continuum by which valid, reliable best estimates may be contextualized for their performance competency: at a lowest margin performance competency (structural failure), high margin performance competency (estimated true value of success), or clinically determined critical values (clinical failure). Informed consent may be achieved when clinicians are confident of their ability to provide useful and accurate best estimates of outcomes regarding regimens, therapies, treatments, and equipment or devices to patients in their clinical practices and when developing personal, oral health care, treatment plans. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Improvement of Vehicle Positioning Using Car-to-Car Communications in Consideration of Communication Delay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hontani, Hidekata; Higuchi, Yuya

In this article, we propose a vehicle positioning method that can estimate positions of cars even in areas where the GPS is not available. For the estimation, each car measures the relative distance to a car running in front, communicates the measurements with other cars, and uses the received measurements for estimating its position. In order to estimate the position even if the measurements are received with time-delay, we employed the time-delay tolerant Kalman filtering. For sharing the measurements, it is assumed that a car-to-car communication system is used. Then, the measurements sent from farther cars are received with larger time-delay. It follows that the accuracy of the estimates of farther cars become worse. Hence, the proposed method manages only the states of nearby cars to reduce computing effort. The authors simulated the proposed filtering method and found that the proposed method estimates the positions of nearby cars as accurate as the distributed Kalman filtering.

Estimating overall exposure effects for the clustered and censored outcome using random effect Tobit regression models.

PubMed

Wang, Wei; Griswold, Michael E

2016-11-30

The random effect Tobit model is a regression model that accommodates both left- and/or right-censoring and within-cluster dependence of the outcome variable. Regression coefficients of random effect Tobit models have conditional interpretations on a constructed latent dependent variable and do not provide inference of overall exposure effects on the original outcome scale. Marginalized random effects model (MREM) permits likelihood-based estimation of marginal mean parameters for the clustered data. For random effect Tobit models, we extend the MREM to marginalize over both the random effects and the normal space and boundary components of the censored response to estimate overall exposure effects at population level. We also extend the 'Average Predicted Value' method to estimate the model-predicted marginal means for each person under different exposure status in a designated reference group by integrating over the random effects and then use the calculated difference to assess the overall exposure effect. The maximum likelihood estimation is proposed utilizing a quasi-Newton optimization algorithm with Gauss-Hermite quadrature to approximate the integration of the random effects. We use these methods to carefully analyze two real datasets. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Conical-Domain Model for Estimating GPS Ionospheric Delays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sparks, Lawrence; Komjathy, Attila; Mannucci, Anthony

2009-01-01

The conical-domain model is a computational model, now undergoing development, for estimating ionospheric delays of Global Positioning System (GPS) signals. Relative to the standard ionospheric delay model described below, the conical-domain model offers improved accuracy. In the absence of selective availability, the ionosphere is the largest source of error for single-frequency users of GPS. Because ionospheric signal delays contribute to errors in GPS position and time measurements, satellite-based augmentation systems (SBASs) have been designed to estimate these delays and broadcast corrections. Several national and international SBASs are currently in various stages of development to enhance the integrity and accuracy of GPS measurements for airline navigation. In the Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) of the United States, slant ionospheric delay errors and confidence bounds are derived from estimates of vertical ionospheric delay modeled on a grid at regularly spaced intervals of latitude and longitude. The estimate of vertical delay at each ionospheric grid point (IGP) is calculated from a planar fit of neighboring slant delay measurements, projected to vertical using a standard, thin-shell model of the ionosphere. Interpolation on the WAAS grid enables estimation of the vertical delay at the ionospheric pierce point (IPP) corresponding to any arbitrary measurement of a user. (The IPP of a given user s measurement is the point where the GPS signal ray path intersects a reference ionospheric height.) The product of the interpolated value and the user s thin-shell obliquity factor provides an estimate of the user s ionospheric slant delay. Two types of error that restrict the accuracy of the thin-shell model are absent in the conical domain model: (1) error due to the implicit assumption that the electron density is independent of the azimuthal angle at the IPP and (2) error arising from the slant-to-vertical conversion. At low latitudes or at mid-latitudes under disturbed conditions, the accuracy of SBAS systems based upon the thin-shell model suffers due to the presence of complex ionospheric structure, high delay values, and large electron density gradients. Interpolation on the vertical delay grid serves as an additional source of delay error. The conical-domain model permits direct computation of the user s slant delay estimate without the intervening use of a vertical delay grid. The key is to restrict each fit of GPS measurements to a spatial domain encompassing signals from only one satellite. The conical domain model is so named because each fit involves a group of GPS receivers that all receive signals from the same GPS satellite (see figure); the receiver and satellite positions define a cone, the satellite position being the vertex. A user within a given cone evaluates the delay to the satellite directly, using (1) the IPP coordinates of the line of sight to the satellite and (2) broadcast fit parameters associated with the cone. The conical-domain model partly resembles the thin-shell model in that both models reduce an inherently four-dimensional problem to two dimensions. However, unlike the thin-shell model, the conical domain model does not involve any potentially erroneous simplifying assumptions about the structure of the ionosphere. In the conical domain model, the initially four-dimensional problem becomes truly two-dimensional in the sense that once a satellite location has been specified, any signal path emanating from a satellite can be identified by only two coordinates; for example, the IPP coordinates. As a consequence, a user s slant-delay estimate converges to the correct value in the limit that the receivers converge to the user s location (or, equivalently, in the limit that the measurement IPPs converge to the user s IPP).

Distortion-product otoacoustic emission reflection-component delays and cochlear tuning: estimates from across the human lifespan.

PubMed

Abdala, Carolina; Guérit, François; Luo, Ping; Shera, Christopher A

2014-04-01

A consistent relationship between reflection-emission delay and cochlear tuning has been demonstrated in a variety of mammalian species, as predicted by filter theory and models of otoacoustic emission (OAE) generation. As a step toward the goal of studying cochlear tuning throughout the human lifespan, this paper exploits the relationship and explores two strategies for estimating delay trends-energy weighting and peak picking-both of which emphasize data at the peaks of the magnitude fine structure. Distortion product otoacoustic emissions (DPOAEs) at 2f1-f2 were recorded, and their reflection components were extracted in 184 subjects ranging in age from prematurely born neonates to elderly adults. DPOAEs were measured from 0.5-4 kHz in all age groups and extended to 8 kHz in young adults. Delay trends were effectively estimated using either energy weighting or peak picking, with the former method yielding slightly shorter delays and the latter somewhat smaller confidence intervals. Delay and tuning estimates from young adults roughly match those obtained from SFOAEs. Although the match is imperfect, reflection-component delays showed the expected bend (apical-basal transition) near 1 kHz, consistent with a break in cochlear scaling. Consistent with other measures of tuning, the term newborn group showed the longest delays and sharpest tuning over much of the frequency range.

Designing Estimator/Predictor Digital Phase-Locked Loops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Statman, J. I.; Hurd, W. J.

1988-01-01

Signal delays in equipment compensated automatically. New approach to design of digital phase-locked loop (DPLL) incorporates concepts from estimation theory and involves decomposition of closed-loop transfer function into estimator and predictor. Estimator provides recursive estimates of phase, frequency, and higher order derivatives of phase with respect to time, while predictor compensates for delay, called "transport lag," caused by PLL equipment and by DPLL computations.

Time Domain Stability Margin Assessment Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clements, Keith

2017-01-01

The baseline stability margins for NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) launch vehicle were generated via the classical approach of linearizing the system equations of motion and determining the gain and phase margins from the resulting frequency domain model. To improve the fidelity of the classical methods, the linear frequency domain approach can be extended by replacing static, memoryless nonlinearities with describing functions. This technique, however, does not address the time varying nature of the dynamics of a launch vehicle in flight. An alternative technique for the evaluation of the stability of the nonlinear launch vehicle dynamics along its trajectory is to incrementally adjust the gain and/or time delay in the time domain simulation until the system exhibits unstable behavior. This technique has the added benefit of providing a direct comparison between the time domain and frequency domain tools in support of simulation validation.

Time-Domain Stability Margin Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clements, Keith

2016-01-01

The baseline stability margins for NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) launch vehicle were generated via the classical approach of linearizing the system equations of motion and determining the gain and phase margins from the resulting frequency domain model. To improve the fidelity of the classical methods, the linear frequency domain approach can be extended by replacing static, memoryless nonlinearities with describing functions. This technique, however, does not address the time varying nature of the dynamics of a launch vehicle in flight. An alternative technique for the evaluation of the stability of the nonlinear launch vehicle dynamics along its trajectory is to incrementally adjust the gain and/or time delay in the time domain simulation until the system exhibits unstable behavior. This technique has the added benefit of providing a direct comparison between the time domain and frequency domain tools in support of simulation validation.

Reachable set estimation for Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy systems against unknown output delays with application to tracking control of AUVs.

PubMed

Zhong, Zhixiong; Zhu, Yanzheng; Ahn, Choon Ki

2018-07-01

In this paper, we address the problem of reachable set estimation for continuous-time Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy systems subject to unknown output delays. Based on the reachable set concept, a new controller design method is also discussed for such systems. An effective method is developed to attenuate the negative impact from the unknown output delays, which likely degrade the performance/stability of systems. First, an augmented fuzzy observer is proposed to capacitate a synchronous estimation for the system state and the disturbance term owing to the unknown output delays, which ensures that the reachable set of the estimation error is limited via the intersection operation of ellipsoids. Then, a compensation technique is employed to eliminate the influence on the system performance stemmed from the unknown output delays. Finally, the effectiveness and correctness of the obtained theories are verified by the tracking control of autonomous underwater vehicles. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Galileo FOC Satellite Group Delay Estimation based on Raw Method and published IOV Metadata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reckeweg, Florian; Schönemann, Erik; Springer, Tim; Enderle, Werner

2017-04-01

In December 2016, the European GNSS Agency (GSA) published the Galileo In-Orbit Validation (IOV) satellite metadata. These metadata include among others the so-called Galileo satellite group delays, which were measured in an absolute sense by the satellite manufacturer on-ground for all three Galileo frequency bands E1, E5 and E6. Therewith Galileo is the first Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) for which absolute calibration values for satellite on-board group delays have been published. The different satellite group delays for the three frequency bands lead to the fact that the signals will not be transmitted at exactly the same epoch. Up to now, due to the lack of absolute group delays, it is common practice in GNSS analyses to estimate and apply the differences of these satellite group delays, commonly known as differential code biases (DCBs). However, this has the drawback that the determination of the "raw" clock and the absolute ionosphere is not possible. The use of absolute bias calibrations for satellites and receivers is a major step into the direction of more realistic (in a physical sense) clock and atmosphere estimates. The Navigation Support Office at the European Space Operation Centre (ESOC) was from the beginning involved in the validation process of the Galileo metadata. For the work presented in this presentation we will use the absolute bias calibrations of the Galileo IOV satellites to estimate and validate the absolute receiver group delays of the ESOC GNSS network and vice versa. The receiver group delays have exemplarily been calibrated in a calibration campaign with an IFEN GNSS Signal-Simulator at ESOC. Based on the calibrated network, making use of the ionosphere constraints given by the IOV satellites, GNSS raw observations are processed to estimate satellite group delays for the operational Galileo (Full Operational Capability) FOC satellites. In addition, "raw" satellite clock offsets are estimated, which are free of the ionosphere-free bias, which is inherent to all common satellite clock products, generated with the standard ionosphere-free linear combination processing approach. In the raw observation processing method, developed by the Navigation Support Office at ESOC, no differences or linear combinations of GNSS observations are formed and ionosphere parameters and multi-signal group delay parameters can be jointly estimated by making use of all available code and phase observations on multiple frequencies.

Estimation and model selection of semiparametric multivariate survival functions under general censorship.

PubMed

Chen, Xiaohong; Fan, Yanqin; Pouzo, Demian; Ying, Zhiliang

2010-07-01

We study estimation and model selection of semiparametric models of multivariate survival functions for censored data, which are characterized by possibly misspecified parametric copulas and nonparametric marginal survivals. We obtain the consistency and root- n asymptotic normality of a two-step copula estimator to the pseudo-true copula parameter value according to KLIC, and provide a simple consistent estimator of its asymptotic variance, allowing for a first-step nonparametric estimation of the marginal survivals. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the penalized pseudo-likelihood ratio statistic for comparing multiple semiparametric multivariate survival functions subject to copula misspecification and general censorship. An empirical application is provided.

Estimation and model selection of semiparametric multivariate survival functions under general censorship

PubMed Central

Chen, Xiaohong; Fan, Yanqin; Pouzo, Demian; Ying, Zhiliang

2013-01-01

We study estimation and model selection of semiparametric models of multivariate survival functions for censored data, which are characterized by possibly misspecified parametric copulas and nonparametric marginal survivals. We obtain the consistency and root-n asymptotic normality of a two-step copula estimator to the pseudo-true copula parameter value according to KLIC, and provide a simple consistent estimator of its asymptotic variance, allowing for a first-step nonparametric estimation of the marginal survivals. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the penalized pseudo-likelihood ratio statistic for comparing multiple semiparametric multivariate survival functions subject to copula misspecification and general censorship. An empirical application is provided. PMID:24790286

Comparison of in-situ delay monitors for use in Adaptive Voltage Scaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pour Aryan, N.; Heiß, L.; Schmitt-Landsiedel, D.; Georgakos, G.; Wirnshofer, M.

2012-09-01

In Adaptive Voltage Scaling (AVS) the supply voltage of digital circuits is tuned according to the circuit's actual operating condition, which enables dynamic compensation to PVTA variations. By exploiting the excessive safety margins added in state-of-the-art worst-case designs considerable power saving is achieved. In our approach, the operating condition of the circuit is monitored by in-situ delay monitors. This paper presents different designs to implement the in-situ delay monitors capable of detecting late but still non-erroneous transitions, called Pre-Errors. The developed Pre-Error monitors are integrated in a 16 bit multiplier test circuit and the resulting Pre-Error AVS system is modeled by a Markov chain in order to determine the power saving potential of each Pre-Error detection approach.

Algorithm Estimates Microwave Water-Vapor Delay

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, Steven E.

1989-01-01

Accuracy equals or exceeds conventional linear algorithms. "Profile" algorithm improved algorithm using water-vapor-radiometer data to produce estimates of microwave delays caused by water vapor in troposphere. Does not require site-specific and weather-dependent empirical parameters other than standard meteorological data, latitude, and altitude for use in conjunction with published standard atmospheric data. Basic premise of profile algorithm, wet-path delay approximated closely by solution to simplified version of nonlinear delay problem and generated numerically from each radiometer observation and simultaneous meteorological data.

Estimation of coupling between time-delay systems from time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prokhorov, M. D.; Ponomarenko, V. I.

2005-07-01

We propose a method for estimation of coupling between the systems governed by scalar time-delay differential equations of the Mackey-Glass type from the observed time series data. The method allows one to detect the presence of certain types of linear coupling between two time-delay systems, to define the type, strength, and direction of coupling, and to recover the model equations of coupled time-delay systems from chaotic time series corrupted by noise. We verify our method using both numerical and experimental data.

Area-Specific Marginal Costing for Electric Utilities: a Case Study of Transmission and Distribution Costs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orans, Ren

1990-10-01

Existing procedures used to develop marginal costs for electric utilities were not designed for applications in an increasingly competitive market for electric power. The utility's value of receiving power, or the costs of selling power, however, depend on the exact location of the buyer or seller, the magnitude of the power and the period of time over which the power is used. Yet no electric utility in the United States has disaggregate marginal costs that reflect differences in costs due to the time, size or location of the load associated with their power or energy transactions. The existing marginal costing methods used by electric utilities were developed in response to the Public Utilities Regulatory Policy Act (PURPA) in 1978. The "ratemaking standards" (Title 1) established by PURPA were primarily concerned with the appropriate segmentation of total revenues to various classes-of-service, designing time-of-use rating periods, and the promotion of efficient long-term resource planning. By design, the methods were very simple and inexpensive to implement. Now, more than a decade later, the costing issues facing electric utilities are becoming increasingly complex, and the benefits of developing more specific marginal costs will outweigh the costs of developing this information in many cases. This research develops a framework for estimating total marginal costs that vary by the size, timing, and the location of changes in loads within an electric distribution system. To complement the existing work at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PGandE) on estimating disaggregate generation and transmission capacity costs, this dissertation focuses on the estimation of distribution capacity costs. While the costing procedure is suitable for the estimation of total (generation, transmission and distribution) marginal costs, the empirical work focuses on the geographic disaggregation of marginal costs related to electric utility distribution investment. The study makes use of data from an actual distribution planning area, located within PGandE's service territory, to demonstrate the important characteristics of this new costing approach. The most significant result of this empirical work is that geographic differences in the cost of capacity in distribution systems can be as much as four times larger than the current system average utility estimates. Furthermore, lumpy capital investment patterns can lead to significant cost differences over time.

Mark 3 VLBI system: Tropospheric calibration subsystems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Resch, G. M.

1980-01-01

Tropospheric delay calibrations are implemented in the Mark 3 system with two subsystems. Estimates of the dry component of tropospheric delay are provided by accurate barometric data from a subsystem of surface meteorological sensors (SMS). An estimate of the wet component of tropospheric delay is provided by a water vapor radiometer (WVR). Both subsystems interface directly to the ASCII Transceiver bus of the Mark 3 system and are operated by the control computer. Seven WVR's under construction are designed to operate in proximity to a radio telescope and can be commanded to point along the line-of-sight to a radio source. They should provide a delay estimate that is accurate to the + or - 2 cm level.

Dhurrin content relates to sorghum [sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] seedling growth in marginal soils

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Dhurrin content in leaves of mature sorghum plant is a quantitative measure of the level of pre-and postflowering drought tolerance (Burke et al., 2013). Postflowering drought tolerance in sorghum is linked to the staygreen (delayed senescence) trait (Howarth, 2000; Rosenow et al., 1977) which has ...

Dhurrin content relates to sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L) Moench) seedling growth in marginal soils.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Dhurrin content in leaves of mature sorghum plant is a quantitative measure of the level of pre-and postflowering drought tolerance (Burke et al., 2013). Postflowering drought tolerance in sorghum is linked to the staygreen (delayed senescence) trait (Howarth, 2000; Rosenow et al., 1977) which has b...

Graduated licensing laws and fatal crashes of teenage drivers: a national study.

PubMed

McCartt, Anne T; Teoh, Eric R; Fields, Michele; Braitman, Keli A; Hellinga, Laurie A

2010-06-01

The objective of the current study was to quantify the effects of the strength of US state graduated driver licensing laws and specific licensing components on the rate of teenage driver fatal crash involvements per 100,000 teenagers during 1996-2007. The strengths of state laws were rated good, fair, marginal, or poor based on a system developed previously by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. Analysis was based on quarterly counts of drivers involved in fatal crashes. Associations of overall ratings and individual licensing components with teenage crash rates were evaluated using Poisson regression, with the corresponding fatal crash rate for drivers ages 30-59 controlling for state- or time-dependent influences on crash rates unrelated to graduated licensing laws. Compared with licensing laws rated poor, laws rated good were associated with 30 percent lower fatal crash rates among 15- to 17-year-olds. Laws rated fair yielded fatal crash rates 11 percent lower. The longer the permit age was delayed, or the longer the licensing age was delayed, the lower the estimated fatal crash rates among 15- to 17-year-olds. Stronger nighttime restrictions were associated with larger reductions, and reductions were larger for laws limiting teenage passengers to zero or one than laws allowing two or more teenage passengers or laws without passenger restrictions. After the effects of any related delay in licensure were accounted for, an increase in the minimum learner's permit holding period showed no association with fatal crash rates. An increase in required practice driving hours did not appear to have an independent association with fatal crash rates. Graduated licensing laws that include strong nighttime and passenger restrictions and laws that delay the learner's permit age and licensing age are associated with lower teenage fatal crash rates. States that adopt such laws can expect to achieve substantial reductions in crash deaths.

The effects of delay duration on visual working memory for orientation.

PubMed

Shin, Hongsup; Zou, Qijia; Ma, Wei Ji

2017-12-01

We used a delayed-estimation paradigm to characterize the joint effects of set size (one, two, four, or six) and delay duration (1, 2, 3, or 6 s) on visual working memory for orientation. We conducted two experiments: one with delay durations blocked, another with delay durations interleaved. As dependent variables, we examined four model-free metrics of dispersion as well as precision estimates in four simple models. We tested for effects of delay time using analyses of variance, linear regressions, and nested model comparisons. We found significant effects of set size and delay duration on both model-free and model-based measures of dispersion. However, the effect of delay duration was much weaker than that of set size, dependent on the analysis method, and apparent in only a minority of subjects. The highest forgetting slope found in either experiment at any set size was a modest 1.14°/s. As secondary results, we found a low rate of nontarget reports, and significant estimation biases towards oblique orientations (but no dependence of their magnitude on either set size or delay duration). Relative stability of working memory even at higher set sizes is consistent with earlier results for motion direction and spatial frequency. We compare with a recent study that performed a very similar experiment.

[Organ-limited prostate cancer with positive resection margins. Importance of adjuvant radiation therapy].

PubMed

Porres, D; Pfister, D; Brehmer, B; Heidenreich, A

2012-09-01

For pT3 prostate cancer with positive resection margins, the importance of postoperative radiation therapy is confirmed by a high level of evidence. However, for the pT2,R1 situation prospective, randomized studies concerning this question are lacking. Despite better local tumor control in the pT2 stage the PSA recurrence rate lies between 25% and 40% and positive margins are an independent factor for recurrence. Retrospective studies suggest a positive effect of adjuvant or salvage radiation for the oncological outcome in the pT2,R1 situation. On the other hand the side effects profile, with a potentially negative influence of postoperative continence and various delayed toxicities, is not insignificant despite modern radiation techniques and in the era of ultrasensitive PSA analysis should be considered in the risk-benefit assessment. As long as the optimal initiation of postoperative radiation therapy is unclear, the assessment of indications for adjuvant or salvage radiation for organ-limited prostate cancer with positive resection margins should be made after an individual patient consultation and under consideration of the recurrence risk factors, such as the Gleason grade and the localization and extent of the resection margins.

Geodesy by radio interferometry: Water vapor radiometry for estimation of the wet delay

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elgered, G.; Davis, J.L.; Herring, T.A.

1991-04-10

An important source of error in very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) estimates of baseline length is unmodeled variations of the refractivity of the neutral atmosphere along the propagation path of the radio signals. The authors present and discuss the method of using data from a water vapor readiometer (WVR) to correct for the propagation delay caused by atmospheric water vapor, the major cause of these variations. Data from different WVRs are compared with estimated propagation delays obtained by Kalman filtering of the VLBI data themselves. The consequences of using either WVR data of Kalman filtering to correct for atmospheric propagation delay atmore » the Onsala VLBI site are investigated by studying the repeatability of estimated baseline lengths from Onsala to several other sites. The lengths of the baselines range from 919 to 7,941 km. The repeatability obtained for baseline length estimates shows that the methods of water vapor radiometry and Kalman filtering offer comparable accuracies when applied to VLBI observations obtained in the climate of the Swedish west coast. The use of WVR data yielded a 13% smaller weighted-root-mean-square (WRMS) scatter of the baseline length estimates compared to the use of a Kalman filter. It is also clear that the best minimum elevation angle for VLBI observations depends on the accuracy of the determinations of the total propagation delay to be used, since the error in this delay increases with increasing air mass. For use of WVR data along with accurate determinations of total surface pressure, the best minimum is about 20{degrees}; for use of a model for the wet delay based on the humidity and temperature at the ground, the best minimum is about 35{degrees}.« less

Exploring the Subtleties of Inverse Probability Weighting and Marginal Structural Models.

PubMed

Breskin, Alexander; Cole, Stephen R; Westreich, Daniel

2018-05-01

Since being introduced to epidemiology in 2000, marginal structural models have become a commonly used method for causal inference in a wide range of epidemiologic settings. In this brief report, we aim to explore three subtleties of marginal structural models. First, we distinguish marginal structural models from the inverse probability weighting estimator, and we emphasize that marginal structural models are not only for longitudinal exposures. Second, we explore the meaning of the word "marginal" in "marginal structural model." Finally, we show that the specification of a marginal structural model can have important implications for the interpretation of its parameters. Each of these concepts have important implications for the use and understanding of marginal structural models, and thus providing detailed explanations of them may lead to better practices for the field of epidemiology.

H∞ state estimation for discrete-time memristive recurrent neural networks with stochastic time-delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Hongjian; Wang, Zidong; Shen, Bo; Alsaadi, Fuad E.

2016-07-01

This paper deals with the robust H∞ state estimation problem for a class of memristive recurrent neural networks with stochastic time-delays. The stochastic time-delays under consideration are governed by a Bernoulli-distributed stochastic sequence. The purpose of the addressed problem is to design the robust state estimator such that the dynamics of the estimation error is exponentially stable in the mean square, and the prescribed ? performance constraint is met. By utilizing the difference inclusion theory and choosing a proper Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, the existence condition of the desired estimator is derived. Based on it, the explicit expression of the estimator gain is given in terms of the solution to a linear matrix inequality. Finally, a numerical example is employed to demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed estimation approach.

The use of a silicon sheet for gradual wound closure after fasciotomy.

PubMed

Walker, Tobias; Gruler, Miriam; Ziemer, Gerhard; Bail, Dorothee H L

2012-06-01

We present a silicon sheet for temporary wound covering and gradual wound closure after open fasciotomy. Fasciotomy was performed in a total of 70 limbs with compartment syndrome (CS). The main etiology of CS was predominantly vascular. All patients were treated with a silicon sheet to cover the soft tissue defect and gradually reapproximate the skin margins. In 53% of the patients, a delayed final wound closure was achieved after a mean of 11.9 days. This method allows final closure of fasciotomy wounds without scar contractures, marginal necrosis, infection, or significant pain. Copyright © 2012 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

On the correlation of angular position with time of occurrence of gamma-ray bursts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petrosian, Vahe; Efron, Bradley

1995-01-01

Evidence indicating that a large fraction of gamma-ray bursts are repeaters would provide strong support for noncosmological origin of these sources. Wang & Lingenfelter have claimed existance of a correlation between angular position and time of occurrence of bursts. We perform statistical tests and find a marginal evidence for nearby bursts occurring within 4 to 5 days of each other in the BATSE 1B catalog. This evidence is present also in the 2B catalogs, which in addition, shows some marginal evidence for bursts repetition at longer time delays up to the total length of the observations.

Estimating airline operating costs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maddalon, D. V.

1978-01-01

A review was made of the factors affecting commercial aircraft operating and delay costs. From this work, an airline operating cost model was developed which includes a method for estimating the labor and material costs of individual airframe maintenance systems. The model, similar in some respects to the standard Air Transport Association of America (ATA) Direct Operating Cost Model, permits estimates of aircraft-related costs not now included in the standard ATA model (e.g., aircraft service, landing fees, flight attendants, and control fees). A study of the cost of aircraft delay was also made and a method for estimating the cost of certain types of airline delay is described.

Patient Recruitment into a Multicenter Randomized Clinical Trial 
for Kidney Disease: Report of the Focal Segmental Glomerulosclerosis Clinical Trial (FSGS CT)

PubMed Central

Ferris, Maria; Norwood, Victoria; Radeva, Milena; Gassman, Jennifer J.; Al‐Uzri, Amira; Askenazi, David; Matoo, Tej; Pinsk, Maury; Sharma, Amita; Smoyer, William; Stults, Jenna; Vyas, Shefali; Weiss, Robert; Gipson, Debbie; Kaskel, Frederick; Friedman, Aaron; Moxey‐Mims, Marva

2012-01-01

Abstract We describe the experience of the focal segmental glomerulosclerosis clinical trial (FSGS CT) in the identification and recruitment of participants into the study. This National Institutes of Health funded study, a multicenter, open‐label, randomized comparison of cyclosporine versus oral dexamethasone pulses plus mycophenolate mofetil, experienced difficulty and delays meeting enrollment goals. These problems occurred despite the support of patient advocacy groups and aggressive recruitment strategies. Multiple barriers were identified including: (1) inaccurate estimates of the number of potential incident FSGS patients at participating centers; (2) delays in securing one of the test agents; (3) prolonged time between IRB approval and execution of a subcontract (mean 7.5 ± 0.8 months); (4) prolonged time between IRB approval and enrollment of the first patient at participating sites (mean 19.6 ± 1.4 months); and (5) reorganization of clinical coordinating core infrastructure to align resources with enrollment. A Web‐based anonymous survey of site investigators revealed site‐related barriers to patient recruitment. The value of a variety of recruitment tools was of marginal utility in facilitating patient enrollment. We conclude that improvements in the logistics of study approval and regulatory start‐up and testing of promising novel agents are important factors in promoting enrollment into randomized clinical trials in nephrology. Clin Trans Sci 2013; Volume 6: 13–20 PMID:23399084

Patient recruitment into a multicenter randomized clinical trial for kidney disease: report of the focal segmental glomerulosclerosis clinical trial (FSGS CT).

PubMed

Ferris, Maria; Norwood, Victoria; Radeva, Milena; Gassman, Jennifer J; Al-Uzri, Amira; Askenazi, David; Matoo, Tej; Pinsk, Maury; Sharma, Amita; Smoyer, William; Stults, Jenna; Vyas, Shefali; Weiss, Robert; Gipson, Debbie; Kaskel, Frederick; Friedman, Aaron; Moxey-Mims, Marva; Trachtman, Howard

2013-02-01

We describe the experience of the focal segmental glomerulosclerosis clinical trial (FSGS CT) in the identification and recruitment of participants into the study. This National Institutes of Health funded study, a multicenter, open-label, randomized comparison of cyclosporine versus oral dexamethasone pulses plus mycophenolate mofetil, experienced difficulty and delays meeting enrollment goals. These problems occurred despite the support of patient advocacy groups and aggressive recruitment strategies. Multiple barriers were identified including: (1) inaccurate estimates of the number of potential incident FSGS patients at participating centers; (2) delays in securing one of the test agents; (3) prolonged time between IRB approval and execution of a subcontract (mean 7.5 ± 0.8 months); (4) prolonged time between IRB approval and enrollment of the first patient at participating sites (mean 19.6 ± 1.4 months); and (5) reorganization of clinical coordinating core infrastructure to align resources with enrollment. A Web-based anonymous survey of site investigators revealed site-related barriers to patient recruitment. The value of a variety of recruitment tools was of marginal utility in facilitating patient enrollment. We conclude that improvements in the logistics of study approval and regulatory start-up and testing of promising novel agents are important factors in promoting enrollment into randomized clinical trials in nephrology. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Formulating the Rasch Differential Item Functioning Model under the Marginal Maximum Likelihood Estimation Context and Its Comparison with Mantel-Haenszel Procedure in Short Test and Small Sample Conditions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paek, Insu; Wilson, Mark

2011-01-01

This study elaborates the Rasch differential item functioning (DIF) model formulation under the marginal maximum likelihood estimation context. Also, the Rasch DIF model performance was examined and compared with the Mantel-Haenszel (MH) procedure in small sample and short test length conditions through simulations. The theoretically known…

Immediate Versus Delayed Loading of Implant for Replacement of Missing Mandibular First Molar: A Randomized Prospective Six Years Clinical Study.

PubMed

Chidagam, Prudhvi Raj Lakshmi Venkata; Gande, Vijaya Chandra; Yadlapalli, Sravanthi; Venkata, Ramani Yarlagadda; Kondaka, Sudheer; Chedalawada, Sravya

2017-04-01

Emergence of dental implants made the replacement of missing tooth easy. During the early days of introduction, implants were loaded three to six months after implant insertion, but understanding of healing cascade and improved production technology has changed the phase of restoration from delayed to immediate loading. To evaluate and compare the clinical outcome of immediate and delayed loaded implant supported prosthesis for missing mandibular first molar. The objectives were bleeding on probing, probing depth, implant mobility, marginal bone level and peri-implant radiolucency were evaluated during follow up period. Twenty patients were included in this study who were in the need of fixed implant supported prosthesis for missing mandibular first molar. Single tooth implant with immediate loading done within two days of implant insertion in one group and another group were loaded after three months of implant insertion. These groups were evaluated clinically and radiographically over a period of 72 months after loading using Wilcoxon matched pairs test and Mann-Whitney U test. The study consists of 14 male and six female patients with the age range of 19 to 31 years. There was no bleeding on probing and probing depth remained well within the normal range even after 72 months of loading among both the groups. Minimal marginal bone loss observed with no mobility and peri-implant radiolucency. Implant supported prosthesis for missing mandibular first molar with immediate loading can be used as a successful treatment modality. It reduces treatment time, provides early function and prevents undue migration of adjacent tooth. Immediate loading showed similar clinical and radiographic results as that of delayed loading, indicating it as an equally efficient technique for implant supported prosthesis.

Comparison of Reconstructive Outcomes in Breast Cancer Patients With Preexisting Subpectoral Implants: Implant-Sparing Mastectomy With Delayed Implant Exchange Versus Immediate Tissue Expander Reconstruction.

PubMed

Parabkaharan, Sangeetha; Melody, Megan; Trotta, Rose; Lleshi, Amina; Sun, Weihong; Smith, Paul D; Khakpour, Nazanin; Dayicioglu, Deniz

2016-06-01

Women who have undergone prior augmentation mammoplasty represent a unique subset of breast cancer patients with several options available for breast reconstruction. We performed a single institution review of surgical outcomes of breast reconstruction performed in patients with breast cancer with prior history of subpectoral breast augmentation. Institutional review board-approved retrospective review was conducted among patients with previously mentioned criteria treated at our institution between 2000 and 2014. Reconstructions were grouped into 2 categories as follows: (1) removal of preexisting subpectoral implant during mastectomy with immediate tissue expander placement and (2) implant-sparing mastectomy followed by delayed exchange to a larger implant. We reviewed demographics, tumor features, and reconstruction outcomes of these groups. Fifty-three patients had preexisting subpectoral implants. Of the 63 breast reconstructions performed, 18 (28.6%) had immediate tissue expander placed and 45 (71.4%) had implant-sparing mastectomy followed by delayed implant exchange. The groups were comparable based on age, body mass index, cancer type, tumor grade, TNM stage at presentation, and hormonal receptor status. No significant difference was noted between tumor margins or subsequent recurrence, mastectomy specimen weight, removed implant volume, volume of implant placed during reconstruction, or time from mastectomy to final implant placement. Rates of complications were significantly higher in the tissue expander group compared to the implant-sparing mastectomy group 7 (38.9%) versus 4 (8.9%) (P = 0.005). Implant-sparing mastectomy with delayed implant exchange in patients with preexisting subpectoral implants is safe and has fewer complications compared to tissue expander placement. There was no difference noted in the final volume of implant placed, time interval for final implant placement, or tumor margins.

Effects of Untreated Periodontitis on Osseointegration of Dental Implants in a Beagle Dog Model.

PubMed

Lee, Daehyun; Sohn, Byungjin; Kim, Kyoung Hwa; Kim, Sungtae; Koo, Ki-Tae; Kim, Tae-Il; Seol, Yang-Jo; Lee, Yong-Moo; Rhyu, In-Chul; Ku, Young

2016-10-01

There have been previous studies on the relationship between periodontitis and peri-implantitis, but limited information is available on how periodontitis affects osseointegration and wound healing of newly placed dental implants adjacent to natural teeth. The objective of the present experiment is to evaluate healing around dental implants adjacent to teeth with untreated experimental periodontitis. The study included six male beagle dogs. Scaling and plaque control procedures were performed on three dogs (control group). In the other three dogs (experimental group), retraction cords and ligature wires were placed subgingivally around all premolars and the first molars. Induced experimental periodontitis was confirmed after 3 months. Each control or experimental group was divided into two subgroups depending on the timing of implant placement (immediate/delayed). Twelve dental implants (two implants for each dog) were placed immediately, and the other 12 dental implants (two implants for each dog) were placed 2 months after extraction. The animals were sacrificed 2 months after implant placement. Histologic and histometric analyses were performed. Four implants (three from the immediate placement group and one from the delayed placement group) failed in the experimental group. There were significant differences in the percentage of bone-to-implant contact and marginal bone volume density between the control and experimental groups. Both parameters were significantly lower in the experimental group than in the control group (P <0.05). There was a tendency toward more marginal bone loss in the experimental group than the control group. Immediate placement of implants is associated with a higher failure rate compared with delayed placement. Untreated experimental periodontitis was correlated with compromised osseointegration in the implants with delayed placement.

Time Delay Embedding Increases Estimation Precision of Models of Intraindividual Variability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

von Oertzen, Timo; Boker, Steven M.

2010-01-01

This paper investigates the precision of parameters estimated from local samples of time dependent functions. We find that "time delay embedding," i.e., structuring data prior to analysis by constructing a data matrix of overlapping samples, increases the precision of parameter estimates and in turn statistical power compared to standard…

Ensemble learning of inverse probability weights for marginal structural modeling in large observational datasets.

PubMed

Gruber, Susan; Logan, Roger W; Jarrín, Inmaculada; Monge, Susana; Hernán, Miguel A

2015-01-15

Inverse probability weights used to fit marginal structural models are typically estimated using logistic regression. However, a data-adaptive procedure may be able to better exploit information available in measured covariates. By combining predictions from multiple algorithms, ensemble learning offers an alternative to logistic regression modeling to further reduce bias in estimated marginal structural model parameters. We describe the application of two ensemble learning approaches to estimating stabilized weights: super learning (SL), an ensemble machine learning approach that relies on V-fold cross validation, and an ensemble learner (EL) that creates a single partition of the data into training and validation sets. Longitudinal data from two multicenter cohort studies in Spain (CoRIS and CoRIS-MD) were analyzed to estimate the mortality hazard ratio for initiation versus no initiation of combined antiretroviral therapy among HIV positive subjects. Both ensemble approaches produced hazard ratio estimates further away from the null, and with tighter confidence intervals, than logistic regression modeling. Computation time for EL was less than half that of SL. We conclude that ensemble learning using a library of diverse candidate algorithms offers an alternative to parametric modeling of inverse probability weights when fitting marginal structural models. With large datasets, EL provides a rich search over the solution space in less time than SL with comparable results. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Ensemble learning of inverse probability weights for marginal structural modeling in large observational datasets

PubMed Central

Gruber, Susan; Logan, Roger W.; Jarrín, Inmaculada; Monge, Susana; Hernán, Miguel A.

2014-01-01

Inverse probability weights used to fit marginal structural models are typically estimated using logistic regression. However a data-adaptive procedure may be able to better exploit information available in measured covariates. By combining predictions from multiple algorithms, ensemble learning offers an alternative to logistic regression modeling to further reduce bias in estimated marginal structural model parameters. We describe the application of two ensemble learning approaches to estimating stabilized weights: super learning (SL), an ensemble machine learning approach that relies on V -fold cross validation, and an ensemble learner (EL) that creates a single partition of the data into training and validation sets. Longitudinal data from two multicenter cohort studies in Spain (CoRIS and CoRIS-MD) were analyzed to estimate the mortality hazard ratio for initiation versus no initiation of combined antiretroviral therapy among HIV positive subjects. Both ensemble approaches produced hazard ratio estimates further away from the null, and with tighter confidence intervals, than logistic regression modeling. Computation time for EL was less than half that of SL. We conclude that ensemble learning using a library of diverse candidate algorithms offers an alternative to parametric modeling of inverse probability weights when fitting marginal structural models. With large datasets, EL provides a rich search over the solution space in less time than SL with comparable results. PMID:25316152

Estimating Airline Operating Costs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maddalon, D. V.

1978-01-01

The factors affecting commercial aircraft operating and delay costs were used to develop an airline operating cost model which includes a method for estimating the labor and material costs of individual airframe maintenance systems. The model permits estimates of aircraft related costs, i.e., aircraft service, landing fees, flight attendants, and control fees. A method for estimating the costs of certain types of airline delay is also described.

The Aviation System Analysis Capability Airport Capacity and Delay Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, David A.; Nelson, Caroline; Shapiro, Gerald

1998-01-01

The ASAC Airport Capacity Model and the ASAC Airport Delay Model support analyses of technologies addressing airport capacity. NASA's Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC) Airport Capacity Model estimates the capacity of an airport as a function of weather, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) procedures, traffic characteristics, and the level of technology available. Airport capacity is presented as a Pareto frontier of arrivals per hour versus departures per hour. The ASAC Airport Delay Model allows the user to estimate the minutes of arrival delay for an airport, given its (weather dependent) capacity. Historical weather observations and demand patterns are provided by ASAC as inputs to the delay model. The ASAC economic models can translate a reduction in delay minutes into benefit dollars.

Essays on competition in electricity markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bustos Salvagno, Ricardo Javier

The first chapter shows how technology decisions affect entry in commodity markets with oligopolistic competition, like the electricity market. I demonstrate an entry deterrence effect that works through cost uncertainty. Technology's cost uncertainty affects spot market expected profits through forward market trades. Therefore, incentives to engage in forward trading shape firms' decisions on production technologies. I show that high-cost but low-risk technologies are adopted by risk-averse incumbents to deter entry. Strategic technology adoption can end in a equilibrium where high-cost technologies prevail over low-cost but riskier ones. In the case of incumbents who are less risk-averse than entrants, entry deterrence is achieved by choosing riskier technologies. The main results do not depend on who chooses their technology first. Chapter two examines the Chilean experience on auctions for long-term supply contracts in electricity markets from 2006 to 2011. Using a divisible-good auction model, I provide a theoretical framework that explains bidding behavior in terms of expected spot prices and contracting positions. The model is extended to include potential strategic behavior on contracting decisions. Empirical estimations confirm the main determinants of bidding behavior and show heterogeneity in the marginal cost of over-contracting depending on size and incumbency. Chapter three analyzes the lag in capacity expansion in the Chilean electricity market from 2000 to 2004. Regarded as a result of regulatory uncertainty, the role of delays in the construction of a large hydro-power plant has been overlooked by the literature. We argue that those delays postponed projected investment and gave small windows of opportunity that only incumbents could take advantage of. We are able to retrace the history of investments through real-time information from the regulator's reports and a simple model enables us to explain the effect of those delays on suggested and under-construction investments.

Prediction of Flutter Boundary Using Flutter Margin for The Discrete-Time System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwi Saputra, Angga; Wibawa Purabaya, R.

2018-04-01

Flutter testing in a wind tunnel is generally conducted at subcritical speeds to avoid damages. Hence, The flutter speed has to be predicted from the behavior some of its stability criteria estimated against the dynamic pressure or flight speed. Therefore, it is quite important for a reliable flutter prediction method to estimates flutter boundary. This paper summarizes the flutter testing of a wing cantilever model in a wind tunnel. The model has two degree of freedom; they are bending and torsion modes. The flutter test was conducted in a subsonic wind tunnel. The dynamic data responses was measured by two accelerometers that were mounted on leading edge and center of wing tip. The measurement was repeated while the wind speed increased. The dynamic responses were used to determine the parameter flutter margin for the discrete-time system. The flutter boundary of the model was estimated using extrapolation of the parameter flutter margin against the dynamic pressure. The parameter flutter margin for the discrete-time system has a better performance for flutter prediction than the modal parameters. A model with two degree freedom and experiencing classical flutter, the parameter flutter margin for the discrete-time system gives a satisfying result in prediction of flutter boundary on subsonic wind tunnel test.

Geodetic and Astrometric Measurements with Very-Long-Baseline Interferometry. Ph.D. Thesis - MIT

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, D. S.

1975-01-01

The use of very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations for the estimation of geodetic and astrometric parameters is discussed. Analytic models for the dependence of delay and delay rate on these parameters are developed and used for parameter estimation by the method of weighted least squares. Results are presented from approximately 15,000 delay and delay-rate observations, obtained in a series of nineteen VLBI experiments involving a total of five stations on two continents. The closure of baseline triangles is investigated and found to be consistent with the scatter of the various baseline-component results. Estimates are made of the wobble of the earth's pole and of the irregularities in the earth's rotation rate. Estimates are also made of the precession constant and of the vertical Love number, for which a value of 0.55 + or - 0.05 was obtained.

Nonlinear Estimation of Discrete-Time Signals Under Random Observation Delay

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Caballero-Aguila, R.; Jimenez-Lopez, J. D.; Hermoso-Carazo, A.

2008-11-06

This paper presents an approximation to the nonlinear least-squares estimation problem of discrete-time stochastic signals using nonlinear observations with additive white noise which can be randomly delayed by one sampling time. The observation delay is modelled by a sequence of independent Bernoulli random variables whose values, zero or one, indicate that the real observation arrives on time or it is delayed and, hence, the available measurement to estimate the signal is not up-to-date. Assuming that the state-space model generating the signal is unknown and only the covariance functions of the processes involved in the observation equation are ready for use,more » a filtering algorithm based on linear approximations of the real observations is proposed.« less

Pairing success of Kirtland's warblers in marginal vs. suitable habitat

Treesearch

John R. Probst; Jack P. Hayes

1987-01-01

We compared pairing success of male Kirtland's Warblers (Dendroica kirtlandii) in different habitats to test the hypothesis that a lower proportion of males in marginal habitat are mated. Fewer than 60% of the males in marginal habitat were paired, but 95% of the males in suitable habitat were paired. We estimated the overall pairing success of...

Time Domain Stability Margin Assessment of the NASA Space Launch System GN&C Design for Exploration Mission One

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clements, Keith; Wall, John

2017-01-01

The baseline stability margins for NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) launch vehicle were generated via the classical approach of linearizing the system equations of motion and determining the gain and phase margins from the resulting frequency domain model. To improve the fidelity of the classical methods, the linear frequency domain approach can be extended by replacing static, memoryless nonlinearities with describing functions. This technique, however, does not address the time varying nature of the dynamics of a launch vehicle in flight. An alternative technique for the evaluation of the stability of the nonlinear launch vehicle dynamics along its trajectory is to incrementally adjust the gain and/or time delay in the time domain simulation until the system exhibits unstable behavior. This technique has the added benefit of providing a direct comparison between the time domain and frequency domain tools in support of simulation validation.

Time Domain Stability Margin Assessment of the NS Space Launch System GN&C Design for Exploration Mission One

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clements, Keith; Wall, John

2017-01-01

The baseline stability margins for NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) launch vehicle were generated via the classical approach of linearizing the system equations of motion and determining the gain and phase margins from the resulting frequency domain model. To improve the fidelity of the classical methods, the linear frequency domain approach can be extended by replacing static, memoryless nonlinearities with describing functions. This technique, however, does not address the time varying nature of the dynamics of a launch vehicle in flight. An alternative technique for the evaluation of the stability of the nonlinear launch vehicle dynamics along its trajectory is to incrementally adjust the gain and/or time delay in the time domain simulation until the system exhibits unstable behavior. This technique has the added benefit of providing a direct comparison between the time domain and frequency domain tools in support of simulation validation.

Time delay estimation using new spectral and adaptive filtering methods with applications to underwater target detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Mohammed A.

1997-11-01

In this dissertation, we present several novel approaches for detection and identification of targets of arbitrary shapes from the acoustic backscattered data and using the incident waveform. This problem is formulated as time- delay estimation and sinusoidal frequency estimation problems which both have applications in many other important areas in signal processing. Solving time-delay estimation problem allows the identification of the specular components in the backscattered signal from elastic and non-elastic targets. Thus, accurate estimation of these time delays would help in determining the existence of certain clues for detecting targets. Several new methods for solving these two problems in the time, frequency and wavelet domains are developed. In the time domain, a new block fast transversal filter (BFTF) is proposed for a fast implementation of the least squares (LS) method. This BFTF algorithm is derived by using data-related constrained block-LS cost function to guarantee global optimality. The new soft-constrained algorithm provides an efficient way of transferring weight information between blocks of data and thus it is computationally very efficient compared with other LS- based schemes. Additionally, the tracking ability of the algorithm can be controlled by varying the block length and/or a soft constrained parameter. The effectiveness of this algorithm is tested on several underwater acoustic backscattered data for elastic targets and non-elastic (cement chunk) objects. In the frequency domain, the time-delay estimation problem is converted to a sinusoidal frequency estimation problem by using the discrete Fourier transform. Then, the lagged sample covariance matrices of the resulting signal are computed and studied in terms of their eigen- structure. These matrices are shown to be robust and effective in extracting bases for the signal and noise subspaces. New MUSIC and matrix pencil-based methods are derived these subspaces. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated on the problem of detection of multiple specular components in the acoustic backscattered data. Finally, a method for the estimation of time delays using wavelet decomposition is derived. The sub-band adaptive filtering uses discrete wavelet transform for multi- resolution or sub-band decomposition. Joint time delay estimation for identifying multi-specular components and subsequent adaptive filtering processes are performed on the signal in each sub-band. This would provide multiple 'look' of the signal at different resolution scale which results in more accurate estimates for delays associated with the specular components. Simulation results on the simulated and real shallow water data are provided which show the promise of this new scheme for target detection in a heavy cluttered environment.

Sea-level changes and shelf break prograding sequences during the last 400 ka in the Aegean margins: Subsidence rates and palaeogeographic implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lykousis, V.

2009-09-01

The subsidence rates of the Aegean margins during the Middle-Upper Pleistocene were evaluated based on new and historical seismic profiling data. High-resolution seismic profiling (AirGun, Sparker and 3.5 kHz) have shown that (at least) four major oblique prograding sequences can be traced below the Aegean marginal slopes at increasing subbottom depths. These palaeo-shelf break glacial delta sediments have been developed during successive low sea-level stands (LST prograding sequences), suggesting continuous and gradual subsidence of the Aegean margins during the last 400 ka. Subsidence rates of the Aegean margins were calculated from the vertical displacement of successive topset-to-foreset transitions (palaeo-shelf break) of the LST prograding sediment sequences. The estimated subsidence rates that were calculated in the active boundaries of the Aegean microplate (North Aegean margins, Gulfs of Patras and Corinth) are high and range from 0.7 to 1.88 m ka -1, while the lowest values (0.34-0.60 m ka -1) are related to the low tectonic and seismic activity margins like the margin of Cyclades plateau. Lower subsidence rates (0.34-0.90 m ka -1) were estimated for the period 146-18 ka BP (oxygen isotopic stages 6-2) and higher (1.46-1.88 m ka -1) for the period from 425 to 250 ka BP (oxygen isotopic stages 12/10-8). A decrease of about 50% of the subduction rates in the Aegean margins was observed during the last 400 ka. During the isotopic stages 8, 10, 11 and 12, almost the 50-60% of the present Aegean Sea was land with extensive drainage systems and delta plains and large lakes in the central and North Aegean. Marine transgression in the North Aegean was rather occurred during the isotopic 9 interglacial period. The estimated palaeomorphology should imply fan delta development and sediment failures in the steep escarpments of the North Aegean margins and high sedimentation rates and turbidite sediment accumulation in the basins. It is deduced that the Black Sea was isolated from the Mediterranean during the Pleistocene prior oxygen isotopic stage 5.

Species delimitation using Bayes factors: simulations and application to the Sceloporus scalaris species group (Squamata: Phrynosomatidae).

PubMed

Grummer, Jared A; Bryson, Robert W; Reeder, Tod W

2014-03-01

Current molecular methods of species delimitation are limited by the types of species delimitation models and scenarios that can be tested. Bayes factors allow for more flexibility in testing non-nested species delimitation models and hypotheses of individual assignment to alternative lineages. Here, we examined the efficacy of Bayes factors in delimiting species through simulations and empirical data from the Sceloporus scalaris species group. Marginal-likelihood scores of competing species delimitation models, from which Bayes factor values were compared, were estimated with four different methods: harmonic mean estimation (HME), smoothed harmonic mean estimation (sHME), path-sampling/thermodynamic integration (PS), and stepping-stone (SS) analysis. We also performed model selection using a posterior simulation-based analog of the Akaike information criterion through Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis (AICM). Bayes factor species delimitation results from the empirical data were then compared with results from the reversible-jump MCMC (rjMCMC) coalescent-based species delimitation method Bayesian Phylogenetics and Phylogeography (BP&P). Simulation results show that HME and sHME perform poorly compared with PS and SS marginal-likelihood estimators when identifying the true species delimitation model. Furthermore, Bayes factor delimitation (BFD) of species showed improved performance when species limits are tested by reassigning individuals between species, as opposed to either lumping or splitting lineages. In the empirical data, BFD through PS and SS analyses, as well as the rjMCMC method, each provide support for the recognition of all scalaris group taxa as independent evolutionary lineages. Bayes factor species delimitation and BP&P also support the recognition of three previously undescribed lineages. In both simulated and empirical data sets, harmonic and smoothed harmonic mean marginal-likelihood estimators provided much higher marginal-likelihood estimates than PS and SS estimators. The AICM displayed poor repeatability in both simulated and empirical data sets, and produced inconsistent model rankings across replicate runs with the empirical data. Our results suggest that species delimitation through the use of Bayes factors with marginal-likelihood estimates via PS or SS analyses provide a useful and complementary alternative to existing species delimitation methods.

The effects of resonances on time delay estimation for water leak detection in plastic pipes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almeida, Fabrício C. L.; Brennan, Michael J.; Joseph, Phillip F.; Gao, Yan; Paschoalini, Amarildo T.

2018-04-01

In the use of acoustic correlation methods for water leak detection, sensors are placed at pipe access points either side of a suspected leak, and the peak in the cross-correlation function of the measured signals gives the time difference (delay) between the arrival times of the leak noise at the sensors. Combining this information with the speed at which the leak noise propagates along the pipe, gives an estimate for the location of the leak with respect to one of the measurement positions. It is possible for the structural dynamics of the pipe system to corrupt the time delay estimate, which results in the leak being incorrectly located. In this paper, data from test-rigs in the United Kingdom and Canada are used to demonstrate this phenomenon, and analytical models of resonators are coupled with a pipe model to replicate the experimental results. The model is then used to investigate which of the two commonly used correlation algorithms, the Basic Cross-Correlation (BCC) function or the Phase Transform (PHAT), is more robust to the undesirable structural dynamics of the pipe system. It is found that time delay estimation is highly sensitive to the frequency bandwidth over which the analysis is conducted. Moreover, it is found that the PHAT is particularly sensitive to the presence of resonances and can give an incorrect time delay estimate, whereas the BCC function is found to be much more robust, giving a consistently accurate time delay estimate for a range of dynamic conditions.

Delayed closure of the palatal defect using buccal inversion and palatal rotation flaps after maxillectomy.

PubMed

Jung, Seunggon; Kook, Min-Suk; Park, Hong-Ju; Oh, Hee-Kyun

2013-03-01

Maxillectomy leaves oronasal and oroantral defects that result in functional impairment of mastication, deglutition, and speech. Many treatment options are suggested and tried including the palatal flap as local flap. Although palatal flaps have been used to repair various oral cavity defects, they have certain limitations due to the dimensions. The amount and location of the palatal tissues available are important for palatal repair. Secondary intentional healing after maxillectomy will allow the epithelialization of the defect margin adjacent to remained palate, and there will be more mucosa that is available for closure of the defect. We delayed the closure of the palatal defect, while the patient underwent prosthetic treatment for functional recovery in 5 maxillectomy patients. Delayed closure of palatal defect with local flap was done at 10.8 ± 7.9 months after the maxillectomy. While delayed closure in hemimaxillectomy patients left postoperative fistula, it provided separation of the oral cavity and nasal/sinus cavity and adequate surface for prosthesis in partial maxillectomy patients.

A Fuel-Efficient Conflict Resolution Maneuver for Separation Assurance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowe, Aisha Ruth; Santiago, Confesor

2012-01-01

Automated separation assurance algorithms are envisioned to play an integral role in accommodating the forecasted increase in demand of the National Airspace System. Developing a robust, reliable, air traffic management system involves safely increasing efficiency and throughput while considering the potential impact on users. This experiment seeks to evaluate the benefit of augmenting a conflict detection and resolution algorithm to consider a fuel efficient, Zero-Delay Direct-To maneuver, when resolving a given conflict based on either minimum fuel burn or minimum delay. A total of twelve conditions were tested in a fast-time simulation conducted in three airspace regions with mixed aircraft types and light weather. Results show that inclusion of this maneuver has no appreciable effect on the ability of the algorithm to safely detect and resolve conflicts. The results further suggest that enabling the Zero-Delay Direct-To maneuver significantly increases the cumulative fuel burn savings when choosing resolution based on minimum fuel burn while marginally increasing the average delay per resolution.

Delay and environmental costs of truck crashes

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-03-01

This report presents estimates of certain categories of costs of truck- and bus-involved crashes. Crash related costs estimated as part of this study include vehicle delay costs, emission costs, and fuel consumption costs. In addition, this report al...

Modeling and analysis of energy quantization effects on single electron inverter performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dan, Surya Shankar; Mahapatra, Santanu

2009-08-01

In this paper, for the first time, the effects of energy quantization on single electron transistor (SET) inverter performance are analyzed through analytical modeling and Monte Carlo simulations. It is shown that energy quantization mainly changes the Coulomb blockade region and drain current of SET devices and thus affects the noise margin, power dissipation, and the propagation delay of SET inverter. A new analytical model for the noise margin of SET inverter is proposed which includes the energy quantization effects. Using the noise margin as a metric, the robustness of SET inverter is studied against the effects of energy quantization. A compact expression is developed for a novel parameter quantization threshold which is introduced for the first time in this paper. Quantization threshold explicitly defines the maximum energy quantization that an SET inverter logic circuit can withstand before its noise margin falls below a specified tolerance level. It is found that SET inverter designed with CT:CG=1/3 (where CT and CG are tunnel junction and gate capacitances, respectively) offers maximum robustness against energy quantization.

Sample sizes needed for specified margins of relative error in the estimates of the repeatability and reproducibility standard deviations.

PubMed

McClure, Foster D; Lee, Jung K

2005-01-01

Sample size formulas are developed to estimate the repeatability and reproducibility standard deviations (Sr and S(R)) such that the actual error in (Sr and S(R)) relative to their respective true values, sigmar and sigmaR, are at predefined levels. The statistical consequences associated with AOAC INTERNATIONAL required sample size to validate an analytical method are discussed. In addition, formulas to estimate the uncertainties of (Sr and S(R)) were derived and are provided as supporting documentation. Formula for the Number of Replicates Required for a Specified Margin of Relative Error in the Estimate of the Repeatability Standard Deviation.

Zero-Extra-Dose PET Delayed Imaging with Data-Driven Attenuation Correction Estimation.

PubMed

Pang, Lifang; Zhu, Wentao; Dong, Yun; Lv, Yang; Shi, Hongcheng

2018-05-08

Delayed positron emission tomography (PET) imaging may improve sensitivity and specificity in lesion detection. We proposed a PET data-driven method to estimate the attenuation map (AM) for the delayed scan without an additional x-ray computed tomography (CT). An emission-attenuation-scatter joint estimation framework was developed. Several practical issues for clinical datasets were addressed. Particularly, the unknown scatter correction was incorporated in the joint estimation algorithm. The scaling problem was solved using prior information from the early CT scan. Fourteen patient datasets were added to evaluate the method. These patients went through two separate PET/CT scans. The delayed CT-based AM served as ground truth for the delayed scan. Standard uptake values (SUVmean and SUVmax) of lesion and normal tissue regions of interests (ROIs) in the early and delayed phase and the respective %DSUV (percentage change of SUVmean at two different time points) were analyzed, all with estimated and the true AM. Three radiologists participated in lesion detection tasks with images reconstructed with both AMs and rated scores for detectability. The mean relative difference of SUVmean in lesion and normal liver tissue were 3.30 and 6.69 %. The average lesion-to-background contrast (detectability) with delayed PET images using CT AM was 60 % higher than that of the earlier PET image, and was 64 % higher when using the data-based AM. %DSUV for lesions and liver backgrounds with CT-based AM were - 0.058 ± 0.25 and - 0.33 ± 0.08 while with data-based AM were - 0.00 ± 0.26 and - 0.28 ± 0.08. Only slight significance difference was found between using CT-based AM and using the data-based AM reconstruction delay phase on %DSUV of lesion. The scores associated with the two AMs matched well consistently. Our method may be used in delayed PET imaging, which allows no secondary CT radiation in delayed phase. The quantitative analysis for lesion detection purpose could be ensured.

Sparsity-driven tomographic reconstruction of atmospheric water vapor using GNSS and InSAR observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heublein, Marion; Alshawaf, Fadwa; Zhu, Xiao Xiang; Hinz, Stefan

2016-04-01

An accurate knowledge of the 3D distribution of water vapor in the atmosphere is a key element for weather forecasting and climate research. On the other hand, as water vapor causes a delay in the microwave signal propagation within the atmosphere, a precise determination of water vapor is required for accurate positioning and deformation monitoring using Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR). However, due to its high variability in time and space, the atmospheric water vapor distribution is difficult to model. Since GNSS meteorology was introduced about twenty years ago, it has increasingly been used as a geodetic technique to generate maps of 2D Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV). Moreover, several approaches for 3D tomographic water vapor reconstruction from GNSS-based estimates using the simple least squares adjustment were presented. In this poster, we present an innovative and sophisticated Compressive Sensing (CS) concept for sparsity-driven tomographic reconstruction of 3D atmospheric wet refractivity fields using data from GNSS and InSAR. The 2D zenith wet delay (ZWD) estimates are obtained by a combination of point-wise estimates of the wet delay using GNSS observations and partial InSAR wet delay maps. These ZWD estimates are aggregated to derive realistic wet delay input data of 100 points as if corresponding to 100 GNSS sites within an area of 100 km × 100 km in the test region of the Upper Rhine Graben. The made-up ZWD values can be mapped into different elevation and azimuth angles. Using the Cosine transform, a sparse representation of the wet refractivity field is obtained. In contrast to existing tomographic approaches, we exploit sparsity as a prior for the regularization of the underdetermined inverse system. The new aspects of this work include both the combination of GNSS and InSAR data for water vapor tomography and the sophisticated CS estimation. The accuracy of the estimated 3D water vapor field is determined by comparing slant integrated wet delays computed from the estimated wet refractivities with real GNSS wet delay estimates. This comparison is performed along different elevation and azimuth angles.

Estimating Real-Time Zenith Tropospheric Delay over Africa Using IGS-RTS Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdelazeem, M.

2017-12-01

Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) is a crucial parameter for atmospheric modeling, severe weather monitoring and forecasting applications. Currently, the international global navigation satellite system (GNSS) real-time service (IGS-RTS) products are used extensively in real-time atmospheric modeling applications. The objective of this study is to develop a real time zenith tropospheric delay estimation model over Africa using the IGS-RTS products. The real-time ZTDs are estimated based on the real-time precise point positioning (PPP) solution. GNSS observations from a number of reference stations are processed over a period of 7 days. Then, the estimated real-time ZTDs are compared with the IGS tropospheric products counterparts. The findings indicate that the estimated real-time ZTDs have millimeter level accuracy in comparison with the IGS counterparts.

A random utility model of delay discounting and its application to people with externalizing psychopathology.

PubMed

Dai, Junyi; Gunn, Rachel L; Gerst, Kyle R; Busemeyer, Jerome R; Finn, Peter R

2016-10-01

Previous studies have demonstrated that working memory capacity plays a central role in delay discounting in people with externalizing psychopathology. These studies used a hyperbolic discounting model, and its single parameter-a measure of delay discounting-was estimated using the standard method of searching for indifference points between intertemporal options. However, there are several problems with this approach. First, the deterministic perspective on delay discounting underlying the indifference point method might be inappropriate. Second, the estimation procedure using the R2 measure often leads to poor model fit. Third, when parameters are estimated using indifference points only, much of the information collected in a delay discounting decision task is wasted. To overcome these problems, this article proposes a random utility model of delay discounting. The proposed model has 2 parameters, 1 for delay discounting and 1 for choice variability. It was fit to choice data obtained from a recently published data set using both maximum-likelihood and Bayesian parameter estimation. As in previous studies, the delay discounting parameter was significantly associated with both externalizing problems and working memory capacity. Furthermore, choice variability was also found to be significantly associated with both variables. This finding suggests that randomness in decisions may be a mechanism by which externalizing problems and low working memory capacity are associated with poor decision making. The random utility model thus has the advantage of disclosing the role of choice variability, which had been masked by the traditional deterministic model. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

A Phase 2 Study of Concurrent Fludarabine and Rituximab for the Treatment of Marginal Zone Lymphomas

PubMed Central

Brown, Jennifer R; Friedberg, Jonathan W.; Feng, Yang; Scofield, Sarah; Phillips, Kimberly; Cin, Paola Dal; Joyce, Robin; Takvorian, Ronald W; Fisher, David C; Fisher, Richard I; Liesveld, Jane; Marquis, Diana; Neuberg, Donna; Freedman, Arnold S

2009-01-01

SUMMARY The marginal zone lymphomas are a recently defined group of related diseases likely arising from a common cell of origin, the marginal zone B cell. Data on therapy for subtypes other than gastric MALT has been largely limited to retrospective case series. We therefore undertook this prospective phase 2 study of fludarabine and rituximab for the treatment of marginal zone lymphomas. 26 patients were enrolled, 14 with nodal MZL, 8 with MALT lymphomas and 4 with splenic MZL; 81% were receiving initial systemic therapy. Only 58% (95% CI 37–77%) of patients completed the planned six cycles, due to significant hematologic, infectious and allergic toxicity. Four late toxic deaths occurred due to infections (15% (95% CI 4.3–35%), two related to delayed bone marrow aplasia and two related to MDS. Nonetheless, the ORR was 85% (95% CI 65–96%), with 54% CRs. The progression-free survival at 3.1 years of follow-up is 79.5% (95% CI, 63–96%). We conclude that although concurrent fludarabine and rituximab given at this dose and schedule is a highly effective regimen in the treatment of marginal zone lymphomas, the significant hematologic and infectious toxicity observed both during and after therapy is prohibitive in this patient population, emphasizing the need to study marginal zone lymphomas as a separate entity. PMID:19344412

Structural Properties and Estimation of Delay Systems. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwong, R. H. S.

1975-01-01

Two areas in the theory of delay systems were studied: structural properties and their applications to feedback control, and optimal linear and nonlinear estimation. The concepts of controllability, stabilizability, observability, and detectability were investigated. The property of pointwise degeneracy of linear time-invariant delay systems is considered. Necessary and sufficient conditions for three dimensional linear systems to be made pointwise degenerate by delay feedback were obtained, while sufficient conditions for this to be possible are given for higher dimensional linear systems. These results were applied to obtain solvability conditions for the minimum time output zeroing control problem by delay feedback. A representation theorem is given for conditional moment functionals of general nonlinear stochastic delay systems, and stochastic differential equations are derived for conditional moment functionals satisfying certain smoothness properties.

Precise estimation of tropospheric path delays with GPS techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lichten, S. M.

1990-01-01

Tropospheric path delays are a major source of error in deep space tracking. However, the tropospheric-induced delay at tracking sites can be calibrated using measurements of Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites. A series of experiments has demonstrated the high sensitivity of GPS to tropospheric delays. A variety of tests and comparisons indicates that current accuracy of the GPS zenith tropospheric delay estimates is better than 1-cm root-mean-square over many hours, sampled continuously at intervals of six minutes. These results are consistent with expectations from covariance analyses. The covariance analyses also indicate that by the mid-1990s, when the GPS constellation is complete and the Deep Space Network is equipped with advanced GPS receivers, zenith tropospheric delay accuracy with GPS will improve further to 0.5 cm or better.

Engineering Margin Factors Used in the Design of the VVER Fuel Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lizorkin, M. P.; Shishkov, L. K.

2017-12-01

The article describes methods for determination of the engineering margin factors currently used to estimate the uncertainties of the VVER reactor design parameters calculated via the KASKAD software package developed at the National Research Center Kurchatov Institute. These margin factors ensure the meeting of the operating (design) limits and a number of other restrictions under normal operating conditions.

Estimating Marginal Returns to Higher Education in the UK. NBER Working Paper No. 13534

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moffitt, Robert

2007-01-01

A long-standing issue in the literature on education is whether marginal returns to education fall as education rises. If the population differs in its rate of return, a closely related question is whether marginal returns to higher education fall as a greater fraction of the population enrolls. This paper proposes a nonparametric method of…

A fully nonparametric estimator of the marginal survival function based on case–control clustered age-at-onset data

PubMed Central

Gorfine, Malka; Bordo, Nadia; Hsu, Li

2017-01-01

Summary Consider a popular case–control family study where individuals with a disease under study (case probands) and individuals who do not have the disease (control probands) are randomly sampled from a well-defined population. Possibly right-censored age at onset and disease status are observed for both probands and their relatives. For example, case probands are men diagnosed with prostate cancer, control probands are men free of prostate cancer, and the prostate cancer history of the fathers of the probands is also collected. Inherited genetic susceptibility, shared environment, and common behavior lead to correlation among the outcomes within a family. In this article, a novel nonparametric estimator of the marginal survival function is provided. The estimator is defined in the presence of intra-cluster dependence, and is based on consistent smoothed kernel estimators of conditional survival functions. By simulation, it is shown that the proposed estimator performs very well in terms of bias. The utility of the estimator is illustrated by the analysis of case–control family data of early onset prostate cancer. To our knowledge, this is the first article that provides a fully nonparametric marginal survival estimator based on case–control clustered age-at-onset data. PMID:27436674

Satisfactory clinical outcome following delayed repositioning of a traumatic post-LASIK flap with dislocation and shrinkage managed by irrigation, stretching, and debridement.

PubMed

Xu, Ye-Sheng; Xie, Wen-Jia; Yao, Yu-Feng

2017-06-01

To report surgical management and favorable outcome in a case with delayed repair of traumatic laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) flap dislocation with shrinkage and folds. A 30-year-old man with a five-year history of bilateral LASIK experienced blunt trauma to his right eye followed by decreased vision for 5 weeks. The surgical management included initially softening the flap by irrigation with balanced salt solution (BSS). The shrinkage folds were carefully and gently stretched by scraping with a 26-gauge cannula accompanied by BSS irrigation. All of the epithelial ingrowth on the flap inner surface and on the bed was thoroughly debrided by scraping and irrigation. After the flap was repositioned to match its original margin, a soft bandage contact lens was placed. At his initial visit, slit-lamp microscopy and optical coherence tomography (OCT) showed shrinkage of the LASIK flap with an elevated margin approximately 3 mm above the original position. The flap covered half of the pupil and had multiple horizontal folds. Two months after surgery, the flap remained well positioned with only faint streaks in the anterior stroma. The uncorrected visual acuity of the right eye was 20/20 with a manifest refraction of Plano. For delayed repair of traumatically dislocated LASIK flaps, sufficient softening by BSS, stretching the shrinkage folds, and thorough debridement of ingrowth epithelium enable resetting the flap and provide satisfactory results.

Satisfactory clinical outcome following delayed repositioning of a traumatic post-LASIK flap with dislocation and shrinkage managed by irrigation, stretching, and debridement*

PubMed Central

Xu, Ye-sheng; Xie, Wen-jia; Yao, Yu-feng

2017-01-01

Objective: To report surgical management and favorable outcome in a case with delayed repair of traumatic laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) flap dislocation with shrinkage and folds. Methods: A 30-year-old man with a five-year history of bilateral LASIK experienced blunt trauma to his right eye followed by decreased vision for 5 weeks. The surgical management included initially softening the flap by irrigation with balanced salt solution (BSS). The shrinkage folds were carefully and gently stretched by scraping with a 26-gauge cannula accompanied by BSS irrigation. All of the epithelial ingrowth on the flap inner surface and on the bed was thoroughly debrided by scraping and irrigation. After the flap was repositioned to match its original margin, a soft bandage contact lens was placed. Results: At his initial visit, slit-lamp microscopy and optical coherence tomography (OCT) showed shrinkage of the LASIK flap with an elevated margin approximately 3 mm above the original position. The flap covered half of the pupil and had multiple horizontal folds. Two months after surgery, the flap remained well positioned with only faint streaks in the anterior stroma. The uncorrected visual acuity of the right eye was 20/20 with a manifest refraction of Plano. Conclusions: For delayed repair of traumatically dislocated LASIK flaps, sufficient softening by BSS, stretching the shrinkage folds, and thorough debridement of ingrowth epithelium enable resetting the flap and provide satisfactory results. PMID:28585430

Geodesy by radio interferometry - Effects of atmospheric modeling errors on estimates of baseline length

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, J. L.; Herring, T. A.; Shapiro, I. I.; Rogers, A. E. E.; Elgered, G.

1985-01-01

Analysis of very long baseline interferometry data indicates that systematic errors in prior estimates of baseline length, of order 5 cm for approximately 8000-km baselines, were due primarily to mismodeling of the electrical path length of the troposphere and mesosphere ('atmospheric delay'). Here observational evidence for the existence of such errors in the previously used models for the atmospheric delay is discussed, and a new 'mapping' function for the elevation angle dependence of this delay is developed. The delay predicted by this new mapping function differs from ray trace results by less than approximately 5 mm, at all elevations down to 5 deg elevation, and introduces errors into the estimates of baseline length of less than about 1 cm, for the multistation intercontinental experiment analyzed here.

Active flutter suppression using optical output feedback digital controllers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

A method for synthesizing digital active flutter suppression controllers using the concept of optimal output feedback is presented. A convergent algorithm is employed to determine constrained control law parameters that minimize an infinite time discrete quadratic performance index. Low order compensator dynamics are included in the control law and the compensator parameters are computed along with the output feedback gain as part of the optimization process. An input noise adjustment procedure is used to improve the stability margins of the digital active flutter controller. Sample rate variation, prefilter pole variation, control structure variation and gain scheduling are discussed. A digital control law which accommodates computation delay can stabilize the wing with reasonable rms performance and adequate stability margins.

A class of optimum digital phase locked loops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, R.; Hurd, W. J.

1986-01-01

This paper presents a class of optimum digital filters for digital phase locked loops, for the important case in which the maximum update rate of the loop filter and numerically controlled oscillator (NCO) is limited. This case is typical when the loop filter is implemented in a microprocessor. In these situations, pure delay is encountered in the loop transfer function and thus the stability and gain margin of the loop are of crucial interest. The optimum filters designed for such situations are evaluated in terms of their gain margin for stability, dynamic error, and steady-state error performance. For situations involving considerably high phase dynamics an adaptive and programmable implementation is also proposed to obtain an overall optimum strategy.

Multiuser TOA Estimation Algorithm in DS-CDMA Sparse Channel for Radiolocation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Sunwoo

This letter considers multiuser time delay estimation in a sparse channel environment for radiolocation. The generalized successive interference cancellation (GSIC) algorithm is used to eliminate the multiple access interference (MAI). To adapt GSIC to sparse channels the alternating maximization (AM) algorithm is considered, and the continuous time delay of each path is estimated without requiring a priori known data sequences.

Cascadia Gas Vent Distribution and Challenges to Quantify Margin-Wide Methane Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherwath, M.; Riedel, M.; Roemer, M.; Veloso, M.; Heesemann, M.; Spence, G.

2017-12-01

Gas venting along the Cascadia Margin has been mapped over decades with ship sonar and in recent years with permanent seafloor installations utilizing the seafloor observatories NEPTUNE of Ocean Networks Canada and the Cabled Array of the Ocean Observatories Initiative. We show the distribution of over 1000 vents, most on the shallow shelf. For a third of the vents we have estimated methane flow rates, ranging from 0.05 to 69 L/min, and extrapolate these results to a margin-wide methane flow estaimate of around 4 Mt/yr (at surface pressure and temperature) and a flux estimate of 0.05 kg yr-1 m-2. However, these estimates are based on several assumptions, e.g. bubble sizes or data coverage, providing large uncertainties. With continued research expeditions and potential seafloor calibration experiments, these data can be refined and improved in future years.

POD and PPP with multi-frequency processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roldán, Pedro; Navarro, Pedro; Rodríguez, Daniel; Rodríguez, Irma

2017-04-01

Precise Orbit Determination (POD) and Precise Point Positioning (PPP) are methods for estimating the orbits and clocks of GNSS satellites and the precise positions and clocks of user receivers. These methods are traditionally based on processing the ionosphere-free combination. With this combination, the delay introduced in the signal when passing through the ionosphere is removed, taking advantage of the dependency of this delay with the square of the frequency. It is also possible to process the individual frequencies, but in this case it is needed to properly model the ionospheric delay. This modelling is usually very challenging, as the electron content in the ionosphere experiences important temporal and spatial variations. These two options define the two main kinds of processing: the dual-frequency ionosphere-free processing, typically used in the POD and in certain applications of PPP, and the single-frequency processing with estimation or modelisation of the ionosphere, mostly used in the PPP processing. In magicGNSS, a software tool developed by GMV for POD and PPP, a hybrid approach has been implemented. This approach combines observations from any number of individual frequencies and any number of ionosphere-free combinations of these frequencies. In such a way, the observations of ionosphere-free combination allow a better estimation of positions and orbits, while the inclusion of observations from individual frequencies allows to estimate the ionospheric delay and to reduce the noise of the solution. It is also possible to include other kind of combinations, such as geometry-free combination, instead of processing individual frequencies. The joint processing of all the frequencies for all the constellations requires both the estimation or modelisation of ionospheric delay and the estimation of inter-frequency biases. The ionospheric delay can be estimated from the single-frequency or dual-frequency geometry-free observations, but it is also possible to use a-priori information based on ionospheric models, on external estimations and on the expected behavior of the ionosphere. The inter-frequency biases appear because the delay of the signal inside the transmitter and the receiver strongly depends on its frequency. However, it is possible to include constraints in the estimator regarding these delays, assuming small variations over time. By using different types of combinations, all the available information from GNSS systems can be included in the processing. This is especially interesting for the case of Galileo satellites, which transmit in several frequencies, and the GPS IIF satellites, which transmit in L5 in addition to the traditional L1 and L2. Several experiments have been performed, to assess the improvement on performance of POD and PPP when using all the constellations and all the available frequencies for each constellation. This paper describes the new approach of multi-frequency processing, including the estimation of biases and ionospheric delays impacting on GNSS observations, and presents the results of the performed experimentation activities to assess the benefits in POD and PPP algorithms.

Effective elastic thickness along the conjugate passive margins of India, Madagascar and Antarctica: A re-evaluation using the Hermite multitaper Bouguer coherence application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratheesh-Kumar, R. T.; Xiao, Wenjiao

2018-05-01

Gondwana correlation studies had rationally positioned the western continental margin of India (WCMI) against the eastern continental margin of Madagascar (ECMM), and the eastern continental margin of India (ECMI) against the eastern Antarctica continental margin (EACM). This contribution computes the effective elastic thickness (Te) of the lithospheres of these once-conjugated continental margins using the multitaper Bouguer coherence method. The results reveal significantly low strength values (Te ∼ 2 km) in the central segment of the WCMI that correlate with consistently low Te values (2-3 km) obtained throughout the entire marginal length of the ECMM. This result is consistent with the previous Te estimates of these margins, and confirms the idea that the low-Te segments in the central part of the WCMI and along the ECMM represents paleo-rift inception points of the lithospheric margins that was thermally and mechanically weakened by the combined action of the Marion hotspot and lithospheric extension during the rifting. The uniformly low-Te value (∼2 km) along the EACM indicates a mechanically weak lithospheric margin, probably due to considerable stretching of the lithosphere, considering the fact that this margin remained almost stationary throughout its rift history. In contrast, the ECMI has comparatively high-Te variations (5-11 km) that lack any correlation with the regional tectonic setting. Using gravity forward and inversion applications, we find a leading order of influence of sediment load on the flexural properties of this marginal lithosphere. The study concludes that the thick pile of the Bengal Fan sediments in the ECMI masks and has erased the signal of the original load-induced topography, and its gravity effect has biased the long-wavelength part of the observed gravity signal. The hence uncorrelated flat topography and deep lithospheric flexure together contribute a bias in the flexure modeling, which likely accounts a relatively high Te estimate.

Cloud-based shaft torque estimation for electric vehicle equipped with integrated motor-transmission system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Xiaoyuan; Zhang, Hui; Yang, Bo; Zhang, Guichen

2018-01-01

In order to improve oscillation damping control performance as well as gear shift quality of electric vehicle equipped with integrated motor-transmission system, a cloud-based shaft torque estimation scheme is proposed in this paper by using measurable motor and wheel speed signals transmitted by wireless network. It can help reduce computational burden of onboard controllers and also relief network bandwidth requirement of individual vehicle. Considering possible delays during signal wireless transmission, delay-dependent full-order observer design is proposed to estimate the shaft torque in cloud server. With these random delays modeled by using homogenous Markov chain, robust H∞ performance is adopted to minimize the effect of wireless network-induced delays, signal measurement noise as well as system modeling uncertainties on shaft torque estimation error. Observer parameters are derived by solving linear matrix inequalities, and simulation results using acceleration test and tip-in, tip-out test demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed shaft torque observer design.

Evaluation of marginal failures of dental composite restorations by acoustic emission analysis.

PubMed

Gu, Ja-Uk; Choi, Nak-Sam

2013-01-01

In this study, a nondestructive method based on acoustic emission (AE) analysis was developed to evaluate the marginal failure states of dental composite restorations. Three types of ring-shaped substrates, which were modeled after a Class I cavity, were prepared from polymethyl methacrylate, stainless steel, and human molar teeth. A bonding agent and a composite resin were applied to the ring-shaped substrates and cured by light exposure. At each time-interval measurement, the tooth substrate presented a higher number of AE hits than polymethyl methacrylate and steel substrates. Marginal disintegration estimations derived from cumulative AE hits and cumulative AE energy parameters showed that a signification portion of marginal gap formation was already realized within 1 min at the initial light-curing stage. Estimation based on cumulative AE energy gave a higher level of marginal failure than that based on AE hits. It was concluded that the AE analysis method developed in this study was a viable approach in predicting the clinical survival of dental composite restorations efficiently within a short test period.

Bayesian analysis of the flutter margin method in aeroelasticity

DOE PAGES

Khalil, Mohammad; Poirel, Dominique; Sarkar, Abhijit

2016-08-27

A Bayesian statistical framework is presented for Zimmerman and Weissenburger flutter margin method which considers the uncertainties in aeroelastic modal parameters. The proposed methodology overcomes the limitations of the previously developed least-square based estimation technique which relies on the Gaussian approximation of the flutter margin probability density function (pdf). Using the measured free-decay responses at subcritical (preflutter) airspeeds, the joint non-Gaussain posterior pdf of the modal parameters is sampled using the Metropolis–Hastings (MH) Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. The posterior MCMC samples of the modal parameters are then used to obtain the flutter margin pdfs and finally the fluttermore » speed pdf. The usefulness of the Bayesian flutter margin method is demonstrated using synthetic data generated from a two-degree-of-freedom pitch-plunge aeroelastic model. The robustness of the statistical framework is demonstrated using different sets of measurement data. In conclusion, it will be shown that the probabilistic (Bayesian) approach reduces the number of test points required in providing a flutter speed estimate for a given accuracy and precision.« less

Active contour configuration model for estimating the posterior ablative margin in image fusion of real-time ultrasound and 3D ultrasound or magnetic resonance images for radiofrequency ablation: an experimental study.

PubMed

Lee, Junkyo; Lee, Min Woo; Choi, Dongil; Cha, Dong Ik; Lee, Sunyoung; Kang, Tae Wook; Yang, Jehoon; Jo, Jaemoon; Bang, Won-Chul; Kim, Jongsik; Shin, Dongkuk

2017-12-21

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of an active contour model for estimating the posterior ablative margin in images obtained by the fusion of real-time ultrasonography (US) and 3-dimensional (3D) US or magnetic resonance (MR) images of an experimental tumor model for radiofrequency ablation. Chickpeas (n=12) and bovine rump meat (n=12) were used as an experimental tumor model. Grayscale 3D US and T1-weighted MR images were pre-acquired for use as reference datasets. US and MR/3D US fusion was performed for one group (n=4), and US and 3D US fusion only (n=8) was performed for the other group. Half of the models in each group were completely ablated, while the other half were incompletely ablated. Hyperechoic ablation areas were extracted using an active contour model from real-time US images, and the posterior margin of the ablation zone was estimated from the anterior margin. After the experiments, the ablated pieces of bovine rump meat were cut along the electrode path and the cut planes were photographed. The US images with the estimated posterior margin were compared with the photographs and post-ablation MR images. The extracted contours of the ablation zones from 12 US fusion videos and post-ablation MR images were also matched. In the four models fused under real-time US with MR/3D US, compression from the transducer and the insertion of an electrode resulted in misregistration between the real-time US and MR images, making the estimation of the ablation zones less accurate than was achieved through fusion between real-time US and 3D US. Eight of the 12 post-ablation 3D US images were graded as good when compared with the sectioned specimens, and 10 of the 12 were graded as good in a comparison with nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide staining and histopathologic results. Estimating the posterior ablative margin using an active contour model is a feasible way of predicting the ablation area, and US/3D US fusion was more accurate than US/MR fusion.

Properties of the Bivariate Delayed Poisson Process

DTIC Science & Technology

1974-07-01

and Lewis (1972) in their Berkeley Symposium paper and here their analysis of the bivariate Poisson processes (without Poisson noise) is carried... Poisson processes . They cannot, however, be independent Poisson processes because their events are associated in pairs by the displace- ment centres...process because its marginal processes for events of each type are themselves (univariate) Poisson processes . Cox and Lewis (1972) assumed a

77 FR 60057 - Margin and Capital Requirements for Covered Swap Entities; Reopening of Comment Period

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-02

... of the Currency 12 CFR Part 45 [Docket No. OCC-2011-0008] RIN 1557-AD43 BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE... Entities; Reopening of Comment Period AGENCY: Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Treasury (OCC... the Currency: Because paper mail in the Washington, DC area and at the OCC is subject to delay...

Marginal Emissions Factors for Electricity Generation in the Midcontinent ISO.

PubMed

Thind, Maninder P S; Wilson, Elizabeth J; Azevedo, Inês L; Marshall, Julian D

2017-12-19

Environmental consequences of electricity generation are often determined using average emission factors. However, as different interventions are incrementally pursued in electricity systems, the resulting marginal change in emissions may differ from what one would predict based on system-average conditions. Here, we estimate average emission factors and marginal emission factors for CO 2 , SO 2 , and NO x from fossil and nonfossil generators in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) region during years 2007-2016. We analyze multiple spatial scales (all MISO; each of the 11 MISO states; each utility; each generator) and use MISO data to characterize differences between the two emission factors (average; marginal). We also explore temporal trends in emissions factors by hour, day, month, and year, as well as the differences that arise from including only fossil generators versus total generation. We find, for example, that marginal emission factors are generally higher during late-night and early morning compared to afternoons. Overall, in MISO, average emission factors are generally higher than marginal estimates (typical difference: ∼20%). This means that the true environmental benefit of an energy efficiency program may be ∼20% smaller than anticipated if one were to use average emissions factors. Our analysis can usefully be extended to other regions to support effective near-term technical, policy and investment decisions based on marginal rather than only average emission factors.

Two-part models with stochastic processes for modelling longitudinal semicontinuous data: Computationally efficient inference and modelling the overall marginal mean.

PubMed

Yiu, Sean; Tom, Brian Dm

2017-01-01

Several researchers have described two-part models with patient-specific stochastic processes for analysing longitudinal semicontinuous data. In theory, such models can offer greater flexibility than the standard two-part model with patient-specific random effects. However, in practice, the high dimensional integrations involved in the marginal likelihood (i.e. integrated over the stochastic processes) significantly complicates model fitting. Thus, non-standard computationally intensive procedures based on simulating the marginal likelihood have so far only been proposed. In this paper, we describe an efficient method of implementation by demonstrating how the high dimensional integrations involved in the marginal likelihood can be computed efficiently. Specifically, by using a property of the multivariate normal distribution and the standard marginal cumulative distribution function identity, we transform the marginal likelihood so that the high dimensional integrations are contained in the cumulative distribution function of a multivariate normal distribution, which can then be efficiently evaluated. Hence, maximum likelihood estimation can be used to obtain parameter estimates and asymptotic standard errors (from the observed information matrix) of model parameters. We describe our proposed efficient implementation procedure for the standard two-part model parameterisation and when it is of interest to directly model the overall marginal mean. The methodology is applied on a psoriatic arthritis data set concerning functional disability.

Quasi-Newton methods for parameter estimation in functional differential equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brewer, Dennis W.

1988-01-01

A state-space approach to parameter estimation in linear functional differential equations is developed using the theory of linear evolution equations. A locally convergent quasi-Newton type algorithm is applied to distributed systems with particular emphasis on parameters that induce unbounded perturbations of the state. The algorithm is computationally implemented on several functional differential equations, including coefficient and delay estimation in linear delay-differential equations.

Assessing public benefits and costs of freight transportation projects : measuring shippers' value of delay on the freight system.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-07-01

Freight delay is detrimental to the national economy. In an effort to gauge the economic impact of freight delay due : to highway congestion, this project focuses on estimating shippers value of delay (VOD). We have accomplished : this through thr...

Valuing natural gas power generation assets in the new competitive marketplace

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Michael Chun-Wei

1999-10-01

The profitability of natural gas fired power plants depends critically on the spread between electricity and natural gas prices. The price levels of these two energy commodities are the key uncertain variables in determining the operating margin and therefore the value of a power plant. The owner of a generation unit has the decision of dispatching the plant only when profit margins are positive. This operating flexibility is a real option with real value. In this dissertation I introduce the spark spread call options and illustrate how such paper contracts replicate the uncertain payoff space facing power asset owners and, therefore, how the financial options framework can be applied in estimating the value of natural gas generation plants. The intrinsic value of gas power plants is approximated as the sum of a series of spark spread call options with succeeding maturity dates. The Black-Scholes spread option pricing model, with volatility and correlation term structure adjustments, is utilized to price the spark spread options. Sensitivity analysis is also performed on the BS spread option formulation to compare different asset types. In addition I explore the potential of using compound and compound-exchange option concepts to evaluate, respectively, the benefits of delaying investment in new generation and in repowering existing antiquated units. The compound option designates an option on top of another option. In this case the series of spark spread call options is the 'underlying' option while the option to delay new investments is the 'overlying.' The compound-exchange option characterizes the opportunity to 'exchange' the old power plant, with its series of spark spread call options, for a set of new spark spread call options that comes with the new generation unit. The strike price of the compound-exchange option is the repowering capital investment and typically includes the purchase of new steam generators and combustion turbines, as well as other facility upgrades. The pricing results using the proposed repowering option approach is compared to the sale prices from recent power plant auctions. Sensitivity of the repowering option model is also examined and the critical parameters al parameters identified.

An Improved Nested Sampling Algorithm for Model Selection and Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, X.; Ye, M.; Wu, J.; WANG, D.

2017-12-01

Multimodel strategy is a general approach for treating model structure uncertainty in recent researches. The unknown groundwater system is represented by several plausible conceptual models. Each alternative conceptual model is attached with a weight which represents the possibility of this model. In Bayesian framework, the posterior model weight is computed as the product of model prior weight and marginal likelihood (or termed as model evidence). As a result, estimating marginal likelihoods is crucial for reliable model selection and assessment in multimodel analysis. Nested sampling estimator (NSE) is a new proposed algorithm for marginal likelihood estimation. The implementation of NSE comprises searching the parameters' space from low likelihood area to high likelihood area gradually, and this evolution is finished iteratively via local sampling procedure. Thus, the efficiency of NSE is dominated by the strength of local sampling procedure. Currently, Metropolis-Hasting (M-H) algorithm and its variants are often used for local sampling in NSE. However, M-H is not an efficient sampling algorithm for high-dimensional or complex likelihood function. For improving the performance of NSE, it could be feasible to integrate more efficient and elaborated sampling algorithm - DREAMzs into the local sampling. In addition, in order to overcome the computation burden problem of large quantity of repeating model executions in marginal likelihood estimation, an adaptive sparse grid stochastic collocation method is used to build the surrogates for original groundwater model.

Analysis of longitudinal marginal structural models.

PubMed

Bryan, Jenny; Yu, Zhuo; Van Der Laan, Mark J

2004-07-01

In this article we construct and study estimators of the causal effect of a time-dependent treatment on survival in longitudinal studies. We employ a particular marginal structural model (MSM), proposed by Robins (2000), and follow a general methodology for constructing estimating functions in censored data models. The inverse probability of treatment weighted (IPTW) estimator of Robins et al. (2000) is used as an initial estimator and forms the basis for an improved, one-step estimator that is consistent and asymptotically linear when the treatment mechanism is consistently estimated. We extend these methods to handle informative censoring. The proposed methodology is employed to estimate the causal effect of exercise on mortality in a longitudinal study of seniors in Sonoma County. A simulation study demonstrates the bias of naive estimators in the presence of time-dependent confounders and also shows the efficiency gain of the IPTW estimator, even in the absence such confounding. The efficiency gain of the improved, one-step estimator is demonstrated through simulation.

Margins in breast conserving surgery: The financial cost & potential savings associated with the new margin guidelines.

PubMed

Singer, Lauren; Brown, Eric; Lanni, Thomas

2016-08-01

In this study, we compare the indications for re-excision, the findings of additional tumor in the re-excision specimen as they relate to margin status, and costs associated with re-excision based on recent new consensus statements. A retrospective analysis was performed on 462 patients with invasive breast carcinoma who underwent at least one lumpectomy between January 2011 and December 2013. Postoperative data was analyzed based on where additional disease was found, as it relates to the margin status of the initial lumpectomy and the additional direct costs associated with additional procedures. Of the 462 patients sampled, 149 underwent a re-excision surgery (32.2%). Four patients underwent mastectomy as their second operation. In the 40 patients with additional disease found on re-excision, 36 (90.0%) of them had a positive margin on their initial lumpectomy. None of the four mastectomy patients had residual disease. The mean cost of the initial lumpectomy for all 462 patients was $2118.01 plus an additional $1801.92 for those who underwent re-excision. A positive margin was most predictive of finding residual tumor on re-excision as would be expected. Using old criteria only 0.07% (4/61) of patients who had undergone re-excision with a 'clear' margin, had additional tumor found, at a total cost of $106,354.11. Thus, the new consensus guidelines will lead to less overall cost, at no clinical risk to patients while reducing a patient's surgical risk and essentially eliminating delays in adjuvant care. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). Phase 1: Evaluation report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

It appears that the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment over the Great Plains, can with a reasonable expectation, be a satisfactory component of a 90/90 production estimator. The area estimator produced more accurate area estimates for the total winter wheat region than for the mixed spring and winter wheat region of the northern Great Plains. The accuracy does appear to degrade somewhat in regions of marginal agriculture where there are small fields and abundant confusion crops. However, it would appear that these regions tend also to be marginal with respect to wheat production and thus increased area estimation errors do not greatly influence the overall production estimation accuracy in the United States. The loss of segments resulting from cloud cover appears to be a random phenomenon that introduces no significant bias into the estimates. This loss does increase the variance of the estimates.

Active/passive microwave sensor comparison of MIZ-ice concentration estimates. [Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burns, B. A.; Cavalieri, D. J.; Keller, M. R.

1986-01-01

Active and passive microwave data collected during the 1984 summer Marginal Ice Zone Experiment in the Fram Strait (MIZEX 84) are used to compare ice concentration estimates derived from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data to those obtained from passive microwave imagery at several frequencies. The comparison is carried out to evaluate SAR performance against the more established passive microwave technique, and to investigate discrepancies in terms of how ice surface conditions, imaging geometry, and choice of algorithm parameters affect each sensor. Active and passive estimates of ice concentration agree on average to within 12%. Estimates from the multichannel passive microwave data show best agreement with the SAR estimates because the multichannel algorithm effectively accounts for the range in ice floe brightness temperatures observed in the MIZ.

Dynamic regime marginal structural mean models for estimation of optimal dynamic treatment regimes, Part I: main content.

PubMed

Orellana, Liliana; Rotnitzky, Andrea; Robins, James M

2010-01-01

Dynamic treatment regimes are set rules for sequential decision making based on patient covariate history. Observational studies are well suited for the investigation of the effects of dynamic treatment regimes because of the variability in treatment decisions found in them. This variability exists because different physicians make different decisions in the face of similar patient histories. In this article we describe an approach to estimate the optimal dynamic treatment regime among a set of enforceable regimes. This set is comprised by regimes defined by simple rules based on a subset of past information. The regimes in the set are indexed by a Euclidean vector. The optimal regime is the one that maximizes the expected counterfactual utility over all regimes in the set. We discuss assumptions under which it is possible to identify the optimal regime from observational longitudinal data. Murphy et al. (2001) developed efficient augmented inverse probability weighted estimators of the expected utility of one fixed regime. Our methods are based on an extension of the marginal structural mean model of Robins (1998, 1999) which incorporate the estimation ideas of Murphy et al. (2001). Our models, which we call dynamic regime marginal structural mean models, are specially suitable for estimating the optimal treatment regime in a moderately small class of enforceable regimes of interest. We consider both parametric and semiparametric dynamic regime marginal structural models. We discuss locally efficient, double-robust estimation of the model parameters and of the index of the optimal treatment regime in the set. In a companion paper in this issue of the journal we provide proofs of the main results.

Logistic regression of family data from retrospective study designs.

PubMed

Whittemore, Alice S; Halpern, Jerry

2003-11-01

We wish to study the effects of genetic and environmental factors on disease risk, using data from families ascertained because they contain multiple cases of the disease. To do so, we must account for the way participants were ascertained, and for within-family correlations in both disease occurrences and covariates. We model the joint probability distribution of the covariates of ascertained family members, given family disease occurrence and pedigree structure. We describe two such covariate models: the random effects model and the marginal model. Both models assume a logistic form for the distribution of one person's covariates that involves a vector beta of regression parameters. The components of beta in the two models have different interpretations, and they differ in magnitude when the covariates are correlated within families. We describe ascertainment assumptions needed to estimate consistently the parameters beta(RE) in the random effects model and the parameters beta(M) in the marginal model. Under the ascertainment assumptions for the random effects model, we show that conditional logistic regression (CLR) of matched family data gives a consistent estimate beta(RE) for beta(RE) and a consistent estimate for the covariance matrix of beta(RE). Under the ascertainment assumptions for the marginal model, we show that unconditional logistic regression (ULR) gives a consistent estimate for beta(M), and we give a consistent estimator for its covariance matrix. The random effects/CLR approach is simple to use and to interpret, but it can use data only from families containing both affected and unaffected members. The marginal/ULR approach uses data from all individuals, but its variance estimates require special computations. A C program to compute these variance estimates is available at http://www.stanford.edu/dept/HRP/epidemiology. We illustrate these pros and cons by application to data on the effects of parity on ovarian cancer risk in mother/daughter pairs, and use simulations to study the performance of the estimates. Copyright 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Marginalized zero-inflated Poisson models with missing covariates.

PubMed

Benecha, Habtamu K; Preisser, John S; Divaris, Kimon; Herring, Amy H; Das, Kalyan

2018-05-11

Unlike zero-inflated Poisson regression, marginalized zero-inflated Poisson (MZIP) models for counts with excess zeros provide estimates with direct interpretations for the overall effects of covariates on the marginal mean. In the presence of missing covariates, MZIP and many other count data models are ordinarily fitted using complete case analysis methods due to lack of appropriate statistical methods and software. This article presents an estimation method for MZIP models with missing covariates. The method, which is applicable to other missing data problems, is illustrated and compared with complete case analysis by using simulations and dental data on the caries preventive effects of a school-based fluoride mouthrinse program. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

An annual quasidifference approach to water price elasticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, David R.; Griffin, Ronald C.

2008-08-01

The preferred price specification for retail water demand estimation has not been fully settled by prior literature. Empirical consistency of price indices is necessary to enable testing of competing specifications. Available methods of unbiasing the price index are summarized here. Using original rate information from several hundred Texas utilities, new indices of marginal and average price change are constructed. Marginal water price change is shown to explain consumption variation better than average water price change, based on standard information criteria. Annual change in quantity consumed per month is estimated with differences in climate variables and the new quasidifference marginal price index. As expected, the annual price elasticity of demand is found to vary with daily high and low temperatures and the frequency of precipitation.

Comparing Three Estimation Methods for the Three-Parameter Logistic IRT Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lamsal, Sunil

2015-01-01

Different estimation procedures have been developed for the unidimensional three-parameter item response theory (IRT) model. These techniques include the marginal maximum likelihood estimation, the fully Bayesian estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques, and the Metropolis-Hastings Robbin-Monro estimation. With each…

Accuracy Assessment of the Precise Point Positioning for Different Troposphere Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oguz Selbesoglu, Mahmut; Gurturk, Mert; Soycan, Metin

2016-04-01

This study investigates the accuracy and repeatability of PPP technique at different latitudes by using different troposphere delay models. Nine IGS stations were selected between 00-800 latitudes at northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere. Coordinates were obtained for 7 days at 1 hour intervals in summer and winter. At first, the coordinates were estimated by using Niell troposphere delay model with and without including north and east gradients in order to investigate the contribution of troposphere delay gradients to the positioning . Secondly, Saastamoinen model was used to eliminate troposphere path delays by using standart atmosphere parameters were extrapolated for all station levels. Finally, coordinates were estimated by using RTCA-MOPS empirical troposphere delay model. Results demonstrate that Niell troposphere delay model with horizontal gradients has better mean values of rms errors 0.09 % and 65 % than the Niell troposphere model without horizontal gradients and RTCA-MOPS model, respectively. Saastamoinen model mean values of rms errors were obtained approximately 4 times bigger than the Niell troposphere delay model with horizontal gradients.

Marginal estimator for the aberrations of a space telescope by phase diversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanc, Amandine; Mugnier, Laurent; Idier, Jérôme

2017-11-01

In this communication, we propose a novel method for estimating the aberrations of a space telescope from phase diversity data. The images recorded by such a telescope can be degraded by optical aberrations due to design, fabrication or misalignments. Phase diversity is a technique that allows the estimation of aberrations. The only estimator found in the relevant literature is based on a joint estimation of the aberrated phase and the observed object. We recall this approach and study the behavior of this joint estimator by means of simulations. We propose a novel marginal estimator of the sole phase. it is obtained by integrating the observed object out of the problem; indeed, this object is a nuisance parameter in our problem. This reduces drastically the number of unknown and provides better asymptotic properties. This estimator is implemented and its properties are validated by simulation. its performance is equal or even better than that of the joint estimator for the same computing cost.

Effect of retransmission and retrodiction on estimation and fusion in long-haul sensor networks

DOE PAGES

Liu, Qiang; Wang, Xin; Rao, Nageswara S. V.; ...

2016-01-01

In a long-haul sensor network, sensors are remotely deployed over a large geographical area to perform certain tasks, such as target tracking. In this work, we study the scenario where sensors take measurements of one or more dynamic targets and send state estimates of the targets to a fusion center via satellite links. The severe loss and delay inherent over the satellite channels reduce the number of estimates successfully arriving at the fusion center, thereby limiting the potential fusion gain and resulting in suboptimal accuracy performance of the fused estimates. In addition, the errors in target-sensor data association can alsomore » degrade the estimation performance. To mitigate the effect of imperfect communications on state estimation and fusion, we consider retransmission and retrodiction. The system adopts certain retransmission-based transport protocols so that lost messages can be recovered over time. Besides, retrodiction/smoothing techniques are applied so that the chances of incurring excess delay due to retransmission are greatly reduced. We analyze the extent to which retransmission and retrodiction can improve the performance of delay-sensitive target tracking tasks under variable communication loss and delay conditions. Lastly, simulation results of a ballistic target tracking application are shown in the end to demonstrate the validity of our analysis.« less

Low Seismic Attenuation in Southern New England Lithosphere Implies Little Heating by the Upwelling Asthenosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamoureux, J. M.; Menke, W. H.

2017-12-01

The Northern Appalachian Anomaly (NAA) is a patch of the asthenosphere in southern New England that is unusually hot given its passive margin setting. Previous research has detected large seismic wave delays that imply a temperature of 770 deg C higher than the mantle below the adjacent craton at the same depth. A key outstanding issue is whether the NAA interacts with the lithosphere above it (e.g. by heating it up). We study this issue using Po and So waves from two magnitude >5.5 earthquakes near the Puerto Rico Trench. These waves, propagating in the cold oceanic lithosphere at near Moho speeds, deliver high frequency energy to the shallow continental lithosphere. We hypothesized that: (1) once within the continental lithosphere, Po and So experience attenuation with distance that can be quantified by a quality factor Q, and that (2) any heating of the lithosphere above the NAA would lead to a higher Q than in regions further north or south along the continental margin. Corresponding Po and So velocities would also be lower. The decay rates of Po and So are estimated using least-squares applied to RMS coda amplitudes measured from digital seismograms from stations in northeastern North America, corrected for instrument response. A roughly log-linear decrease in amplitude is observed, corresponding to P and S wave quality factors in the range of 394-1500 and 727-6847, respectively. Measurements are made for four margin-perpendicular geographical bands, with one band overlapping the NAA. We detect no effect on these amplitudes by the NAA; 95% confidence bounds overlap in every case; Furthermore, all quality factors are much higher than the 100 predicted by lab experiments for near-solidus mantle rocks. These results suggest that the NAA is not causing significant heating of the lithosphere above it. The shear velocities, however, are about 10% slower above the NAA - an effect that may be fossil, reflecting processes that occurred millions of years ago.

Acceptance Testing of a Satellite SCADA Photovoltaic-Diesel Hybrid System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalu, A.; Emrich, C.; Ventre, G.; Wilson, W.; Acosta, Roberto (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Satellite Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) of a Photovoltaic (PV)/diesel hybrid system was tested using NASA's Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) and Ultra Small Aperture Terminal (USAT) ground stations. The setup consisted of a custom-designed PV/diesel hybrid system, located at the Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC), which was controlled and monitored at a "remote" hub via Ka-band satellite link connecting two 1/4 Watt USATs in a SCADA arrangement. The robustness of the communications link was tested for remote monitoring of the health and performance of a PV/diesel hybrid system, and for investigating load control and battery charging strategies to maximize battery capacity and lifetime, and minimize loss of critical load probability. Baseline hardware performance test results demonstrated that continuous two-second data transfers can be accomplished under clear sky conditions with an error rate of less than 1%. The delay introduced by the satellite (1/4 sec) was transparent to synchronization of satellite modem as well as to the PV/diesel-hybrid computer. End-to-end communications link recovery times were less than 36 seconds for loss of power and less than one second for loss of link. The system recovered by resuming operation without any manual intervention, which is important since the 4 dB margin is not sufficient to prevent loss of the satellite link during moderate to heavy rain. Hybrid operations during loss of communications link continued seamlessly but real-time monitoring was interrupted. For this sub-tropical region, the estimated amount of time that the signal fade will exceed the 4 dB margin is about 10%. These results suggest that data rates of 4800 bps and a link margin of 4 dB with a 1/4 Watt transmitter are sufficient for end-to-end operation in this SCADA application.

Predictors of Full Enteral Feeding Achievement in Very Low Birth Weight Infants

PubMed Central

Corvaglia, Luigi; Fantini, Maria Pia; Aceti, Arianna; Gibertoni, Dino; Rucci, Paola; Baronciani, Dante; Faldella, Giacomo

2014-01-01

Background To elucidate the role of prenatal, neonatal and early postnatal variables in influencing the achievement of full enteral feeding (FEF) in very low birth weight (VLBW) infants and to determine whether neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) differ in this outcome. Methods Population-based retrospective cohort study using data on 1,864 VLBW infants drawn from the “Emilia-Romagna Perinatal Network” Registry from 2004 to 2009. The outcome of interest was time to FEF achievement. Eleven prenatal, neonatal and early postnatal variables and the study NICUs were selected as potential predictors of time to FEF. Parametric survival analysis was used to model time to FEF as a function of the predictors. Marginal effects were used to obtain adjusted estimates of median time to FEF for specific subgroups of infants. Results Lower gestational age, exclusive formula feeding, higher CRIB II score, maternal hypertension, cesarean delivery, SGA and PDA predicted delayed FEF. NICUs proved to be heterogeneous in terms of FEF achievement. Newborns with PDA had a 4.2 days longer predicted median time to FEF compared to those without PDA; newborns exclusively formula-fed had a 1.4 days longer time to FEF compared to those fed human milk. Conclusions The results of our study suggest that time to FEF is influenced by clinical variables and NICU-specific practices. Knowledge of the variables associated with delayed/earlier FEF achievement could help in improving specific aspects of routine clinical management of VLBW infants and to reduce practice variability. PMID:24647523

The estimation of the propagation delay through the troposphere from microwave radiometer data. [very long base interferometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moran, J. M.; Rosen, B. R.

1980-01-01

The uncertainity in propagation delay estimates is due primarily to tropospheric water, the total amount and vertical distribution of which is variable. Because water vapor both delays and attenuates microwave signals, the propagation delay, or wet path length, can be estimated from the microwave brightness temperature near the 22.235 GHz transition of water vapor. The data from a total of 240 radiosonde launches taken simultaneously were analyzed. Estimates of brightness temperature at 19 and 22 GHz and wet path length were made from these data. The wet path length in the zenith direction could be estimated from the surface water vapor density to an accuracy of 5 cm for the summer data and 2 cm for winter data. Using the brightness temperatures, the wet path could be estimated to an accuracy of 0.3 cm. Two dual frequency radiometers were refurbished in order to test these techniques. These radiometers were capable of measuring the difference in the brightness temperature at 30 deg elevation angle and at the zenith to an accuracy of about 1 K. In August 1975, 45 radiosondes were launched over an 11 day period. Brightness temperature measurements were made simultaneously at 19 and 22 GHz with the radiometers. The rms error for the estimation of wet path length from surface meteorological parameters was 3.2 cm, and from the radiometer brightness temperatures, 1.5 cm.

The rates and time-delay distribution of multiply imaged supernovae behind lensing clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xue; Hjorth, Jens; Richard, Johan

2012-11-01

Time delays of gravitationally lensed sources can be used to constrain the mass model of a deflector and determine cosmological parameters. We here present an analysis of the time-delay distribution of multiply imaged sources behind 17 strong lensing galaxy clusters with well-calibrated mass models. We find that for time delays less than 1000 days, at z = 3.0, their logarithmic probability distribution functions are well represented by P(log Δt) = 5.3 × 10-4Δttilde beta/M2502tilde beta, with tilde beta = 0.77, where M250 is the projected cluster mass inside 250 kpc (in 1014M⊙), and tilde beta is the power-law slope of the distribution. The resultant probability distribution function enables us to estimate the time-delay distribution in a lensing cluster of known mass. For a cluster with M250 = 2 × 1014M⊙, the fraction of time delays less than 1000 days is approximately 3%. Taking Abell 1689 as an example, its dark halo and brightest galaxies, with central velocity dispersions σ>=500kms-1, mainly produce large time delays, while galaxy-scale mass clumps are responsible for generating smaller time delays. We estimate the probability of observing multiple images of a supernova in the known images of Abell 1689. A two-component model of estimating the supernova rate is applied in this work. For a magnitude threshold of mAB = 26.5, the yearly rate of Type Ia (core-collapse) supernovae with time delays less than 1000 days is 0.004±0.002 (0.029±0.001). If the magnitude threshold is lowered to mAB ~ 27.0, the rate of core-collapse supernovae suitable for time delay observation is 0.044±0.015 per year.

Measuring Information-Transfer Delays

PubMed Central

Wibral, Michael; Pampu, Nicolae; Priesemann, Viola; Siebenhühner, Felix; Seiwert, Hannes; Lindner, Michael; Lizier, Joseph T.; Vicente, Raul

2013-01-01

In complex networks such as gene networks, traffic systems or brain circuits it is important to understand how long it takes for the different parts of the network to effectively influence one another. In the brain, for example, axonal delays between brain areas can amount to several tens of milliseconds, adding an intrinsic component to any timing-based processing of information. Inferring neural interaction delays is thus needed to interpret the information transfer revealed by any analysis of directed interactions across brain structures. However, a robust estimation of interaction delays from neural activity faces several challenges if modeling assumptions on interaction mechanisms are wrong or cannot be made. Here, we propose a robust estimator for neuronal interaction delays rooted in an information-theoretic framework, which allows a model-free exploration of interactions. In particular, we extend transfer entropy to account for delayed source-target interactions, while crucially retaining the conditioning on the embedded target state at the immediately previous time step. We prove that this particular extension is indeed guaranteed to identify interaction delays between two coupled systems and is the only relevant option in keeping with Wiener’s principle of causality. We demonstrate the performance of our approach in detecting interaction delays on finite data by numerical simulations of stochastic and deterministic processes, as well as on local field potential recordings. We also show the ability of the extended transfer entropy to detect the presence of multiple delays, as well as feedback loops. While evaluated on neuroscience data, we expect the estimator to be useful in other fields dealing with network dynamics. PMID:23468850

Control system estimation and design for aerospace vehicles with time delay

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allgaier, G. R.; Williams, T. L.

1972-01-01

The problems of estimation and control of discrete, linear, time-varying systems are considered. Previous solutions to these problems involved either approximate techniques, open-loop control solutions, or results which required excessive computation. The estimation problem is solved by two different methods, both of which yield the identical algorithm for determining the optimal filter. The partitioned results achieve a substantial reduction in computation time and storage requirements over the expanded solution, however. The results reduce to the Kalman filter when no delays are present in the system. The control problem is also solved by two different methods, both of which yield identical algorithms for determining the optimal control gains. The stochastic control is shown to be identical to the deterministic control, thus extending the separation principle to time delay systems. The results obtained reduce to the familiar optimal control solution when no time delays are present in the system.

Dynamic regime marginal structural mean models for estimation of optimal dynamic treatment regimes, Part II: proofs of results.

PubMed

Orellana, Liliana; Rotnitzky, Andrea; Robins, James M

2010-03-03

In this companion article to "Dynamic Regime Marginal Structural Mean Models for Estimation of Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes, Part I: Main Content" [Orellana, Rotnitzky and Robins (2010), IJB, Vol. 6, Iss. 2, Art. 7] we present (i) proofs of the claims in that paper, (ii) a proposal for the computation of a confidence set for the optimal index when this lies in a finite set, and (iii) an example to aid the interpretation of the positivity assumption.

Marginal Structural Models with Counterfactual Effect Modifiers.

PubMed

Zheng, Wenjing; Luo, Zhehui; van der Laan, Mark J

2018-06-08

In health and social sciences, research questions often involve systematic assessment of the modification of treatment causal effect by patient characteristics. In longitudinal settings, time-varying or post-intervention effect modifiers are also of interest. In this work, we investigate the robust and efficient estimation of the Counterfactual-History-Adjusted Marginal Structural Model (van der Laan MJ, Petersen M. Statistical learning of origin-specific statically optimal individualized treatment rules. Int J Biostat. 2007;3), which models the conditional intervention-specific mean outcome given a counterfactual modifier history in an ideal experiment. We establish the semiparametric efficiency theory for these models, and present a substitution-based, semiparametric efficient and doubly robust estimator using the targeted maximum likelihood estimation methodology (TMLE, e.g. van der Laan MJ, Rubin DB. Targeted maximum likelihood learning. Int J Biostat. 2006;2, van der Laan MJ, Rose S. Targeted learning: causal inference for observational and experimental data, 1st ed. Springer Series in Statistics. Springer, 2011). To facilitate implementation in applications where the effect modifier is high dimensional, our third contribution is a projected influence function (and the corresponding projected TMLE estimator), which retains most of the robustness of its efficient peer and can be easily implemented in applications where the use of the efficient influence function becomes taxing. We compare the projected TMLE estimator with an Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighted estimator (e.g. Robins JM. Marginal structural models. In: Proceedings of the American Statistical Association. Section on Bayesian Statistical Science, 1-10. 1997a, Hernan MA, Brumback B, Robins JM. Marginal structural models to estimate the causal effect of zidovudine on the survival of HIV-positive men. 2000;11:561-570), and a non-targeted G-computation estimator (Robins JM. A new approach to causal inference in mortality studies with sustained exposure periods - application to control of the healthy worker survivor effect. Math Modell. 1986;7:1393-1512.). The comparative performance of these estimators is assessed in a simulation study. The use of the projected TMLE estimator is illustrated in a secondary data analysis for the Sequenced Treatment Alternatives to Relieve Depression (STAR*D) trial where effect modifiers are subject to missing at random.

Large loop excision of the transformation zone for treating cervical intraepithelial neoplasia: a 12-year experience.

PubMed

Paraskevaidis, E; Koliopoulos, G; Malamou-Mitsi, V; Zikopoulos, K; Paschopoulos, M; Pappa, L; Agnantis, N J; Loli, D E

2001-01-01

Although the existing evidence suggests that there is no obviously superior conservative method for treating cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN), one of the most widely used is the large loop excision of the transformation zone (LLETZ). A total of 897 women who were treated with LLETZ at our colposcopy clinic from 1989 to 2000 were retrospectively studied. Forty women did not have significant cervical pathology (4.5% over-treatment rate). Clear margins of excision were obtained in 748 (88.5%) of the 845 cases of CIN or microinvasive cancers. Treatment failure rates were 4.7% for clear margins and 26.8% for involved or uncertain. LLETZ is a fast and reliable method of treating CIN and microinvasive carcinoma. Generalized cauterization of the resulting crater should be avoided and satellite HPV lesions ablated. Involved margins have a higher treatmentfailure rate, therefore a larger excision is recommended as cervical craters regenerate. Treatment in pregnant women can be delayed until postpartum provided they have adequate surveillance during pregnancy.

COSMOGRAIL XVII: Time Delays for the Quadruply Imaged Quasar PG 1115+080

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bonvin, V.; et al.

We present time-delay estimates for the quadruply imaged quasar PG 1115+080. Our resuls are based on almost daily observations for seven months at the ESO MPIA 2.2m telescope at La Silla Observatory, reaching a signal-to-noise ratio of about 1000 per quasar image. In addition, we re-analyse existing light curves from the literature that we complete with an additional three seasons of monitoring with the Mercator telescope at La Palma Observatory. When exploring the possible source of bias we consider the so-called microlensing time delay, a potential source of systematic error so far never directly accounted for in previous time-delay publications.more » In fifteen years of data on PG 1115+080, we find no strong evidence of microlensing time delay. Therefore not accounting for this effect, our time-delay estimates on the individual data sets are in good agreement with each other and with the literature. Combining the data sets, we obtain the most precise time-delay estimates to date on PG 1115+080, with Dt(AB) = 8.3+1.5-1.6 days (18.7% precision), Dt(AC) = 9.9+1.1-1.1 days (11.1%) and Dt(BC) = 18.8+1.6-1.6 days (8.5%). Turning these time delays into cosmological constraints is done in a companion paper that makes use of ground-based Adaptive Optics (AO) with the Keck telescope.« less

Risk factors associated with delayed gastric emptying after subtotal gastrectomy with Billroth-I anastomosis using circular stapler for early gastric cancer patients.

PubMed

Kim, Ki Han; Kim, Min Chan; Jung, Ghap Joong

2012-11-01

Gastric surgery may potentiate delayed gastric emptying. Billroth I gastroduodenostomy using a circular stapler is the most preferable reconstruction method. The purpose of this study is to analyze the risk factors associated with delayed gastric emptying after radical subtotal gastrectomy with Billroth I anastomosis using a stapler for early gastric cancer. Three hundred and seventy-eight patients who underwent circular stapled Billroth I gastroduodenostomy after subtotal gastrectomy due to early gastric cancer were analyzed retrospectively. One hundred and eighty-two patients had Billroth I anastomosis using a 25 mm diameter circular stapler, and 196 patients had anastomosis with a 28 or 29 mm diameter circular stapler. Clinicopathological features and postoperative outcomes were evaluated and compared between the two groups. Delayed gastric emptying was diagnosed by symptoms and simple abdomen X-ray with or without upper gastrointestinal series or endoscopy. Postoperative delayed gastric emptying was found in 12 (3.2%) of the 378 patients. Among all the variables, distal margin and circular stapler diameter were significantly different between the cases with delayed gastric emptying and no delayed gastric emptying. There were statistically significant differences in sex, body mass index, comorbidity, complication, and operation type according to circular stapler diameter. In both univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, only the stapler diameter was found to be a significant factor affecting delayed gastric emptying (P = 0.040). In this study, the circular stapler diameter was one of the most significant predictable factors of delayed gastric emptying for Billroth I gastroduodenostomy. The use of a 28 or 29 mm diameter circular stapler rather than a 25 mm diameter stapler in stapled gastroduodenostomy for early gastric cancer can reduce postoperative delayed gastric emptying associated with anastomosic stenosis or edema with relative safety.

Interaction of Airspace Partitions and Traffic Flow Management Delay

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palopo, Kee; Chatterji, Gano B.; Lee, Hak-Tae

2010-01-01

To ensure that air traffic demand does not exceed airport and airspace capacities, traffic management restrictions, such as delaying aircraft on the ground, assigning them different routes and metering them in the airspace, are implemented. To reduce the delays resulting from these restrictions, revising the partitioning of airspace has been proposed to distribute capacity to yield a more efficient airspace configuration. The capacity of an airspace partition, commonly referred to as a sector, is limited by the number of flights that an air traffic controller can safely manage within the sector. Where viable, re-partitioning of the airspace distributes the flights over more efficient sectors and reduces individual sector demand. This increases the overall airspace efficiency, but requires additional resources in some sectors in terms of controllers and equipment, which is undesirable. This study examines the tradeoff of the number of sectors designed for a specified amount of traffic in a clear-weather day and the delays needed for accommodating the traffic demand. Results show that most of the delays are caused by airport arrival and departure capacity constraints. Some delays caused by airspace capacity constraints can be eliminated by re-partitioning the airspace. Analyses show that about 360 high-altitude sectors, which are approximately today s operational number of sectors of 373, are adequate for delays to be driven solely by airport capacity constraints for the current daily air traffic demand. For a marginal increase of 15 seconds of average delay, the number of sectors can be reduced to 283. In addition, simulations of traffic growths of 15% and 20% with forecasted airport capacities in the years 2018 and 2025 show that delays will continue to be governed by airport capacities. In clear-weather days, for small increases in traffic demand, increasing sector capacities will have almost no effect on delays.

Estimation of daily interfractional larynx residual setup error after isocentric alignment for head and neck radiotherapy: Quality-assurance implications for target volume and organ-at-risk margination using daily CT-on-rails imaging

PubMed Central

Baron, Charles A.; Awan, Musaddiq J.; Mohamed, Abdallah S. R.; Akel, Imad; Rosenthal, David I.; Gunn, G. Brandon; Garden, Adam S.; Dyer, Brandon A.; Court, Laurence; Sevak, Parag R; Kocak-Uzel, Esengul; Fuller, Clifton D.

2016-01-01

Larynx may alternatively serve as a target or organ-at-risk (OAR) in head and neck cancer (HNC) image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT). The objective of this study was to estimate IGRT parameters required for larynx positional error independent of isocentric alignment and suggest population–based compensatory margins. Ten HNC patients receiving radiotherapy (RT) with daily CT-on-rails imaging were assessed. Seven landmark points were placed on each daily scan. Taking the most superior anterior point of the C5 vertebra as a reference isocenter for each scan, residual displacement vectors to the other 6 points were calculated post-isocentric alignment. Subsequently, using the first scan as a reference, the magnitude of vector differences for all 6 points for all scans over the course of treatment were calculated. Residual systematic and random error, and the necessary compensatory CTV-to-PTV and OAR-to-PRV margins were calculated, using both observational cohort data and a bootstrap-resampled population estimator. The grand mean displacements for all anatomical points was 5.07mm, with mean systematic error of 1.1mm and mean random setup error of 2.63mm, while bootstrapped POIs grand mean displacement was 5.09mm, with mean systematic error of 1.23mm and mean random setup error of 2.61mm. Required margin for CTV-PTV expansion was 4.6mm for all cohort points, while the bootstrap estimator of the equivalent margin was 4.9mm. The calculated OAR-to-PRV expansion for the observed residual set-up error was 2.7mm, and bootstrap estimated expansion of 2.9mm. We conclude that the interfractional larynx setup error is a significant source of RT set-up/delivery error in HNC both when the larynx is considered as a CTV or OAR. We estimate the need for a uniform expansion of 5mm to compensate for set up error if the larynx is a target or 3mm if the larynx is an OAR when using a non-laryngeal bony isocenter. PMID:25679151

Estimation of daily interfractional larynx residual setup error after isocentric alignment for head and neck radiotherapy: quality assurance implications for target volume and organs‐at‐risk margination using daily CT on‐rails imaging

PubMed Central

Baron, Charles A.; Awan, Musaddiq J.; Mohamed, Abdallah S.R.; Akel, Imad; Rosenthal, David I.; Gunn, G. Brandon; Garden, Adam S.; Dyer, Brandon A.; Court, Laurence; Sevak, Parag R.; Kocak‐Uzel, Esengul

2014-01-01

Larynx may alternatively serve as a target or organs at risk (OAR) in head and neck cancer (HNC) image‐guided radiotherapy (IGRT). The objective of this study was to estimate IGRT parameters required for larynx positional error independent of isocentric alignment and suggest population‐based compensatory margins. Ten HNC patients receiving radiotherapy (RT) with daily CT on‐rails imaging were assessed. Seven landmark points were placed on each daily scan. Taking the most superior‐anterior point of the C5 vertebra as a reference isocenter for each scan, residual displacement vectors to the other six points were calculated postisocentric alignment. Subsequently, using the first scan as a reference, the magnitude of vector differences for all six points for all scans over the course of treatment was calculated. Residual systematic and random error and the necessary compensatory CTV‐to‐PTV and OAR‐to‐PRV margins were calculated, using both observational cohort data and a bootstrap‐resampled population estimator. The grand mean displacements for all anatomical points was 5.07 mm, with mean systematic error of 1.1 mm and mean random setup error of 2.63 mm, while bootstrapped POIs grand mean displacement was 5.09 mm, with mean systematic error of 1.23 mm and mean random setup error of 2.61 mm. Required margin for CTV‐PTV expansion was 4.6 mm for all cohort points, while the bootstrap estimator of the equivalent margin was 4.9 mm. The calculated OAR‐to‐PRV expansion for the observed residual setup error was 2.7 mm and bootstrap estimated expansion of 2.9 mm. We conclude that the interfractional larynx setup error is a significant source of RT setup/delivery error in HNC, both when the larynx is considered as a CTV or OAR. We estimate the need for a uniform expansion of 5 mm to compensate for setup error if the larynx is a target, or 3 mm if the larynx is an OAR, when using a nonlaryngeal bony isocenter. PACS numbers: 87.55.D‐, 87.55.Qr

The profile algorithm for microwave delay estimation from water vapor radiometer data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, Steven E.

1988-01-01

A new algorithm has been developed for the estimation of tropospheric microwave path delays from water vapor radiometer (WVR) data, which does not require site and weather dependent empirical parameters to produce accuracy better than 0.3 cm of delay. Instead of taking the conventional linear approach, the new algorithm first uses the observables with an emission model to determine an approximate form of the vertical water vapor distribution, which is then explicitly integrated to estimate wet path delays in a second step. The intrinsic accuracy of this algorithm, excluding uncertainties caused by the radiometers and the emission model, has been examined for two channel WVR data using path delays and corresponding simulated observables computed from archived radiosonde data. It is found that annual rms errors for a wide range of sites average 0.18 cm in the absence of clouds, 0.22 cm in cloudy weather, and 0.19 cm overall. In clear weather, the new algorithm's accuracy is comparable to the best that can be obtained from conventional linear algorithms, while in cloudy weather it offers a 35 percent improvement.

Relationship of Automobile Characteristics to List Prices and Profit Margins -- A Preliminary Analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1978-08-01

The report describes research on potential impacts of fuel economy regulations on the U.S. automobile industry. The study focused on the possible effects of auto "down-sizing" on manufacture profit margins. Historical price data were used to estimate...

GTAP model and database modification to better handle cropping changes on the intensive margin.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-07-25

Previously, induced land use change estimates considered only the extensive margin; that is, adding to harvested area by converting forest or pasture to cropland. However, recent data suggests that some of the increase in global harvested area comes ...

Ensemble-marginalized Kalman filter for linear time-dependent PDEs with noisy boundary conditions: application to heat transfer in building walls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, Marco; Sawlan, Zaid; Scavino, Marco; Tempone, Raúl; Wood, Christopher

2018-07-01

In this work, we present the ensemble-marginalized Kalman filter (EnMKF), a sequential algorithm analogous to our previously proposed approach (Ruggeri et al 2017 Bayesian Anal. 12 407–33, Iglesias et al 2018 Int. J. Heat Mass Transfer 116 417–31), for estimating the state and parameters of linear parabolic partial differential equations in initial-boundary value problems when the boundary data are noisy. We apply EnMKF to infer the thermal properties of building walls and to estimate the corresponding heat flux from real and synthetic data. Compared with a modified ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that is not marginalized, EnMKF reduces the bias error, avoids the collapse of the ensemble without needing to add inflation, and converges to the mean field posterior using or less of the ensemble size required by EnKF. According to our results, the marginalization technique in EnMKF is key to performance improvement with smaller ensembles at any fixed time.

Effects of Reinforcer Probability, Delay, and Response Requirements on the Choices of Rats and Pigeons: Possible Species Differences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mazur, James E.

2005-01-01

In Experiment 1 with rats, a left lever press led to a 5-s delay and then a possible reinforcer. A right lever press led to an adjusting delay and then a certain reinforcer. This delay was adjusted over trials to estimate an indifference point, or a delay at which the two alternatives were chosen about equally often. Indifference points increased…

Real-time estimation of ionospheric delay using GPS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Lao-Sheng

1997-12-01

When radio waves such as the GPS signals propagate through the ionosphere, they experience an extra time delay. The ionospheric delay can be eliminated (to the first order) through a linear combination of L1 and L2 observations from dual-frequency GPS receivers. Taking advantage of this dispersive principle, one or more dual- frequency GPS receivers can be used to determine a model of the ionospheric delay across a region of interest and, if implemented in real-time, can support single-frequency GPS positioning and navigation applications. The research objectives of this thesis were: (1) to develop algorithms to obtain accurate absolute Total Electron Content (TEC) estimates from dual-frequency GPS observables, and (2) to develop an algorithm to improve the accuracy of real-time ionosphere modelling. In order to fulfil these objectives, four algorithms have been proposed in this thesis. A 'multi-day multipath template technique' is proposed to mitigate the pseudo-range multipath effects at static GPS reference stations. This technique is based on the assumption that the multipath disturbance at a static station will be constant if the physical environment remains unchanged from day to day. The multipath template, either single-day or multi-day, can be generated from the previous days' GPS data. A 'real-time failure detection and repair algorithm' is proposed to detect and repair the GPS carrier phase 'failures', such as the occurrence of cycle slips. The proposed algorithm uses two procedures: (1) application of a statistical test on the state difference estimated from robust and conventional Kalman filters in order to detect and identify the carrier phase failure, and (2) application of a Kalman filter algorithm to repair the 'identified carrier phase failure'. A 'L1/L2 differential delay estimation algorithm' is proposed to estimate GPS satellite transmitter and receiver L1/L2 differential delays. This algorithm, based on the single-site modelling technique, is able to estimate the sum of the satellite and receiver L1/L2 differential delay for each tracked GPS satellite. A 'UNSW grid-based algorithm' is proposed to improve the accuracy of real-time ionosphere modelling. The proposed algorithm is similar to the conventional grid-based algorithm. However, two modifications were made to the algorithm: (1) an 'exponential function' is adopted as the weighting function, and (2) the 'grid-based ionosphere model' estimated from the previous day is used to predict the ionospheric delay ratios between the grid point and reference points. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Synchronization error estimation and controller design for delayed Lur'e systems with parameter mismatches.

PubMed

He, Wangli; Qian, Feng; Han, Qing-Long; Cao, Jinde

2012-10-01

This paper investigates the problem of master-slave synchronization of two delayed Lur'e systems in the presence of parameter mismatches. First, by analyzing the corresponding synchronization error system, synchronization with an error level, which is referred to as quasi-synchronization, is established. Some delay-dependent quasi-synchronization criteria are derived. An estimation of the synchronization error bound is given, and an explicit expression of error levels is obtained. Second, sufficient conditions on the existence of feedback controllers under a predetermined error level are provided. The controller gains are obtained by solving a set of linear matrix inequalities. Finally, a delayed Chua's circuit is chosen to illustrate the effectiveness of the derived results.

A Robust and Multi-Weighted Approach to Estimating Topographically Correlated Tropospheric Delays in Radar Interferograms

PubMed Central

Zhu, Bangyan; Li, Jiancheng; Chu, Zhengwei; Tang, Wei; Wang, Bin; Li, Dawei

2016-01-01

Spatial and temporal variations in the vertical stratification of the troposphere introduce significant propagation delays in interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) observations. Observations of small amplitude surface deformations and regional subsidence rates are plagued by tropospheric delays, and strongly correlated with topographic height variations. Phase-based tropospheric correction techniques assuming a linear relationship between interferometric phase and topography have been exploited and developed, with mixed success. Producing robust estimates of tropospheric phase delay however plays a critical role in increasing the accuracy of InSAR measurements. Meanwhile, few phase-based correction methods account for the spatially variable tropospheric delay over lager study regions. Here, we present a robust and multi-weighted approach to estimate the correlation between phase and topography that is relatively insensitive to confounding processes such as regional subsidence over larger regions as well as under varying tropospheric conditions. An expanded form of robust least squares is introduced to estimate the spatially variable correlation between phase and topography by splitting the interferograms into multiple blocks. Within each block, correlation is robustly estimated from the band-filtered phase and topography. Phase-elevation ratios are multiply- weighted and extrapolated to each persistent scatter (PS) pixel. We applied the proposed method to Envisat ASAR images over the Southern California area, USA, and found that our method mitigated the atmospheric noise better than the conventional phase-based method. The corrected ground surface deformation agreed better with those measured from GPS. PMID:27420066

A Robust and Multi-Weighted Approach to Estimating Topographically Correlated Tropospheric Delays in Radar Interferograms.

PubMed

Zhu, Bangyan; Li, Jiancheng; Chu, Zhengwei; Tang, Wei; Wang, Bin; Li, Dawei

2016-07-12

Spatial and temporal variations in the vertical stratification of the troposphere introduce significant propagation delays in interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) observations. Observations of small amplitude surface deformations and regional subsidence rates are plagued by tropospheric delays, and strongly correlated with topographic height variations. Phase-based tropospheric correction techniques assuming a linear relationship between interferometric phase and topography have been exploited and developed, with mixed success. Producing robust estimates of tropospheric phase delay however plays a critical role in increasing the accuracy of InSAR measurements. Meanwhile, few phase-based correction methods account for the spatially variable tropospheric delay over lager study regions. Here, we present a robust and multi-weighted approach to estimate the correlation between phase and topography that is relatively insensitive to confounding processes such as regional subsidence over larger regions as well as under varying tropospheric conditions. An expanded form of robust least squares is introduced to estimate the spatially variable correlation between phase and topography by splitting the interferograms into multiple blocks. Within each block, correlation is robustly estimated from the band-filtered phase and topography. Phase-elevation ratios are multiply- weighted and extrapolated to each persistent scatter (PS) pixel. We applied the proposed method to Envisat ASAR images over the Southern California area, USA, and found that our method mitigated the atmospheric noise better than the conventional phase-based method. The corrected ground surface deformation agreed better with those measured from GPS.

A unifying framework for marginalized random intercept models of correlated binary outcomes

PubMed Central

Swihart, Bruce J.; Caffo, Brian S.; Crainiceanu, Ciprian M.

2013-01-01

We demonstrate that many current approaches for marginal modeling of correlated binary outcomes produce likelihoods that are equivalent to the copula-based models herein. These general copula models of underlying latent threshold random variables yield likelihood-based models for marginal fixed effects estimation and interpretation in the analysis of correlated binary data with exchangeable correlation structures. Moreover, we propose a nomenclature and set of model relationships that substantially elucidates the complex area of marginalized random intercept models for binary data. A diverse collection of didactic mathematical and numerical examples are given to illustrate concepts. PMID:25342871

What is the impact of different VLBI analysis setups of the tropospheric delay on precipitable water vapor trends?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balidakis, Kyriakos; Nilsson, Tobias; Heinkelmann, Robert; Glaser, Susanne; Zus, Florian; Deng, Zhiguo; Schuh, Harald

2017-04-01

The quality of the parameters estimated by global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) and very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) are distorted by erroneous meteorological observations applied to model the propagation delay in the electrically neutral atmosphere. For early VLBI sessions with poor geometry, unsuitable constraints imposed on the a priori tropospheric gradients is a source of additional hassle of VLBI analysis. Therefore, climate change indicators deduced from the geodetic analysis, such as the long-term precipitable water vapor (PWV) trends, are strongly affected. In this contribution we investigate the impact of different modeling and parameterization of the propagation delay in the troposphere on the estimates of long-term PWV trends from geodetic VLBI analysis results. We address the influence of the meteorological data source, and of the a priori non-hydrostatic delays and gradients employed in the VLBI processing, on the estimated PWV trends. In particular, we assess the effect of employing temperature and pressure from (i) homogenized in situ observations, (ii) the model levels of the ERA Interim reanalysis numerical weather model and (iii) our own blind model in the style of GPT2w with enhanced parameterization, calculated using the latter data set. Furthermore, we utilize non-hydrostatic delays and gradients estimated from (i) a GNSS reprocessing at GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, rigorously considering tropospheric ties, and (ii)) direct ray-tracing through ERA Interim, as additional observations. To evaluate the above, the least-squares module of the VieVS@GFZ VLBI software was appropriately modified. Additionally, we study the noise characteristics of the non-hydrostatic delays and gradients estimated from our VLBI and GNSS analyses as well as from ray-tracing. We have modified the Theil-Sen estimator appropriately to robustly deduce PWV trends from VLBI, GNSS, ray-tracing and direct numerical integration in ERA Interim. We disseminate all our solutions in the latest Tropo-SINEX format.

The effect of response-delay on estimating reachability.

PubMed

Gabbard, Carl; Ammar, Diala

2008-11-01

The experiment was conducted to compare visual imagery (VI) and motor imagery (MI) reaching tasks in a response-delay paradigm designed to explore the hypothesized dissociation between vision for perception and vision for action. Although the visual systems work cooperatively in motor control, theory suggests that they operate under different temporal constraints. From this perspective, we expected that delay would affect MI but not VI because MI operates in real time and VI is postulated to be memory-driven. Following measurement of actual reach, right-handers were presented seven (imagery) targets at midline in eight conditions: MI and VI with 0-, 1-, 2-, and 4-s delays. Results indicted that delay affected the ability to estimate reachability with MI but not with VI. These results are supportive of a general distinction between vision for perception and vision for action.

The Kinematics of Central American Fore-Arc Motion in Nicaragua: Geodetic, Geophysical and Geologic Study of Magma-Tectonic Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Femina, P. C.; Geirsson, H.; Saballos, A.; Mattioli, G. S.

2017-12-01

A long-standing paradigm in plate tectonics is that oblique convergence results in strain partitioning and the formation of migrating fore-arc terranes accommodated on margin-parallel strike-slip faults within or in close proximity to active volcanic arcs (e.g., the Sumatran fault). Some convergent margins, however, are segmented by margin-normal faults and margin-parallel shear is accommodated by motion on these faults and by vertical axis block rotation. Furthermore, geologic and geophysical observations of active and extinct margins where strain partitioning has occurred, indicate the emplacement of magmas within the shear zones or extensional step-overs. Characterizing the mechanism of accommodation is important for understanding short-term (decadal) seismogenesis, and long-term (millions of years) fore-arc migration, and the formation of continental lithosphere. We investigate the geometry and kinematics of Quaternary faulting and magmatism along the Nicaraguan convergent margin, where historical upper crustal earthquakes have been located on margin-normal, strike-slip faults within the fore arc and arc. Using new GPS time series, other geophysical and geologic data, we: 1) determine the location of the maximum gradient in forearc motion; 2) estimate displacement rates on margin-normal faults; and 3) constrain the geometric moment rate for the fault system. We find that: 1) forearc motion is 11 mm a-1; 2) deformation is accommodated within the active volcanic arc; and 3) that margin-normal faults can have rates of 10 mm a-1 in agreement with geologic estimates from paleoseismology. The minimum geometric moment rate for the margin-normal fault system is 2.62x107 m3 yr-1, whereas the geometric moment rate for historical (1931-2006) earthquakes is 1.01x107 m3/yr. The discrepancy between fore-arc migration and historical seismicity may be due to aseismic accommodation of fore-arc motion by magmatic intrusion along north-trending volcanic alignments within the volcanic arc.

The High Stability Engine Control (HISTEC) Program: Flight Demonstration Phase

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLaat, John C.; Southwick, Robert D.; Gallops, George W.; Orme, John S.

1998-01-01

Future aircraft turbine engines, both commercial and military, must be able to accommodate expected increased levels of steady-state and dynamic engine-face distortion. The current approach of incorporating sufficient design stall margin to tolerate these increased levels of distortion would significantly reduce performance. The objective of the High Stability Engine Control (HISTEC) program is to design, develop, and flight-demonstrate an advanced, integrated engine control system that uses measurement-based estimates of distortion to enhance engine stability. The resulting distortion tolerant control reduces the required design stall margin, with a corresponding increase in performance and decrease in fuel burn. The HISTEC concept has been developed and was successfully flight demonstrated on the F-15 ACTIVE aircraft during the summer of 1997. The flight demonstration was planned and carried out in two phases, the first to show distortion estimation, and the second to show distortion accommodation. Post-flight analysis shows that the HISTEC technologies are able to successfully estimate and accommodate distortion, transiently setting the stall margin requirement on-line and in real-time. This allows the design stall margin requirement to be reduced, which in turn can be traded for significantly increased performance and/or decreased weight. Flight demonstration of the HISTEC technologies has significantly reduced the risk of transitioning the technology to tactical and commercial engines.

Estimation Of TMDLs And Margin Of Safety Under Conditions Of Uncertainty

EPA Science Inventory

In TMDL development, an adequate margin of safety (MOS) is required in the calculation process to provide a cushion needed because of uncertainties in the data and analysis. Current practices, however, rarely factor analysis' uncertainty in TMDL development and the MOS is largel...

Assessing the costs attributed to project delay during project pre-construction stages

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-03-01

This project for the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) developed a simple but sound : methodology for estimating the cost of delaying most types of highway projects. Researchers considered the : cost of delays during the pre-construction pha...

Assessing the costs attributed to project delay during project pre-construction stages.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-03-01

This project for the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) developed a simple but sound : methodology for estimating the cost of delaying most types of highway projects. Researchers considered the : cost of delays during the pre-construction pha...

Understanding neural system dynamics through task modulation and measurement of functional MRI amplitude, latency, and width

PubMed Central

Bellgowan, P. S. F.; Saad, Z. S.; Bandettini, P. A.

2003-01-01

Estimates of hemodynamic amplitude, delay, and width were combined to investigate system dynamics involved in lexical decision making. Subjects performed a lexical decision task using word and nonword stimuli rotated 0°, 60°, or 120°. Averaged hemodynamic responses to repeated stimulation were fit to a Gamma-variate function convolved with a heavyside function of varying onset and duration to estimate each voxel's activation delay and width. Consistent with prolonged reaction times for the rotated stimuli and nonwords, the motor cortex showed delayed hemodynamic onset for both conditions. Language areas such as the lingual gyrus, middle temporal gyrus, fusiform gyrus, and precuneus all showed delayed hemodynamic onsets to rotated stimuli but not to nonword stimuli. The inferior frontal gyrus showed both increased onset latency for rotated stimuli and a wider hemodynamic response to nonwords, consistent with prolonged processing in this area during the lexical decision task. Phonological processing areas such as superior temporal and angular gyrus showed no delay or width difference for rotated stimuli. These results suggest that phonological routes but not semantic routes to the lexicon can proceed regardless of stimulus orientation. This study demonstrates the utility of estimating hemodynamic delay and width in addition to amplitude allowing for more quantitative measures of brain function such as mental chronometry. PMID:12552093

Influence of surgical and prosthetic techniques on marginal bone loss around titanium implants. Part I: immediate loading in fresh extraction sockets.

PubMed

Berberi, Antoine N; Tehini, Georges E; Noujeim, Ziad F; Khairallah, Alexandre A; Abousehlib, Moustafa N; Salameh, Ziad A

2014-10-01

Delayed placement of implant abutments has been associated with peri-implant marginal bone loss; however, long-term results obtained by modifying surgical and prosthetic techniques after implant placement are still lacking. This study aimed to evaluate the marginal bone loss around titanium implants placed in fresh extraction sockets using two loading protocols after a 5-year follow-up period. A total of 36 patients received 40 titanium implants (Astra Tech) intended for single-tooth replacement. Implants were immediately placed into fresh extraction sockets using either a one-stage (immediate loading by placing an interim prosthesis into functional occlusion) or a two-stage prosthetic loading protocol (insertion of abutments after 8 weeks of healing time). Marginal bone levels relative to the implant reference point were evaluated at four time intervals using intraoral radiographs: at time of implant placement, and 1, 3, and 5 years after implant placement. Measurements were obtained from mesial and distal surfaces of each implant (α = 0.05). One-stage immediate implant placement into fresh extraction sockets resulted in a significant reduction in marginal bone loss (p < 0.002) compared to the traditional two-stage technique. Whereas mesial surfaces remained stable for the 5-year observation period, significant marginal bone loss was observed on distal surfaces of implants after cementation of interim prostheses (p < 0.007) and after 12 months (p < 0.034). Within the limitations of this study, immediate loading of implants placed into fresh extraction sockets reduced marginal bone loss and did not compromise the success rate of the restorations. © 2014 by the American College of Prosthodontists.

A comparative evaluation of the marginal adaptation of a thermoplastic resin, a light cured wax and an inlay casting wax on stone dies: An in vitro study.

PubMed

Gopalan, Reji P; Nair, Vivek V; Harshakumar, K; Ravichandran, R; Lylajam, S; Viswambaran, Prasanth

2018-01-01

Different pattern materials do not produce copings with satisfactory, marginal accuracy when used on stone dies at varying time intervals. The purpose of this study was to evaluate and compare the vertical marginal accuracy of patterns formed from three materials, namely, thermoplastic resin, light cured wax and inlay casting wax at three-time intervals of 1, 12, and 24 h. A master die (zirconia abutment mimicking a prepared permanent maxillary central incisor) and metal sleeve (direct metal laser sintering crown #11) were fabricated. A total of 30 stone dies were obtained from the master die. Ten patterns were made each from the three materials and stored off the die at room temperature. The vertical marginal gaps were measured using digital microscope at 1, 12, and 24 h after reseating with gentle finger pressure. The results revealed a significant statistical difference in the marginal adaptation of three materials at all the three-time intervals. Light cured wax was found to be most accurate at all time intervals, followed by thermoplastic resin and inlay casting wax. Furthermore, there was a significant difference between all pairs of materials. The change in vertical marginal gap from 1 to 24 h between thermoplastic resin and light cured wax was not statistically significant. The marginal adaptation of all the three materials used, was well within the acceptable range of 25-70 μm. The resin pattern materials studied revealed significantly less dimensional change than inlay casting wax on storage at 1, 12, and 24 h time intervals. They may be employed in situations where high precision and delayed investing is expected.

A Prospective Cohort Study of Outpatient Interdisciplinary Rehabilitation of Chronic Headache Patients.

PubMed

Krause, Steven J; Stillman, Mark J; Tepper, Deborah E; Zajac, Deborah

2017-03-01

To evaluate the efficacy of an intensive outpatient program designed to improve functioning and reduce psychological impairment in chronic headache patients. Chronic headaches, occurring 15 or more days per month, for three or more months, may arise from multiple International Classification of Headache Disorders diagnoses: Chronic Migraine, Chronic Tension Type Headache, New Daily Persistent Headache, Chronic Post Traumatic Headaches, and Medication Overuse Headache. Several interdisciplinary programs that treat patients with chronic headaches have reported decreases in headache frequency. This study sought to evaluate the effect of a 3 week interdisciplinary treatment program for patients with chronic headache disorders on headache severity, functional status, and psychological impairment. Subjects were 379 patients admitted to an outpatient chronic headache treatment program. Assessments of headache severity, psychological status, and functional impairment were completed by 371 (97.8%) of these at the time of admission. At discharge, 340 subjects (89.7%) provided assessment data, and 152 (40.1%) provided data at 1-year follow-up. Subjects' mean ratings on a 0-10 scale for their headache pain in the prior week declined, and these improvements were maintained at follow-up. (Estimated marginal means on a 0-10 scale for Average pain: admission 6.1, discharge 3.5, follow-up 3.3; for Least pain: admission 3.2; discharge 1.5; follow-up 1.3; for Worst pain: admission 8.2; discharge 6.4; follow-up 5.7), and similar results were found for current pain (admission 4.7; discharge 2.8; follow-up 2.4): Measures of functional impairment also improved following treatment, and these gains were maintained at 12 month follow up (Estimated marginal mean Headache Impact Test-6 score: admission 66.1, discharge 55.4, follow-up 51.9; Estimated marginal mean Pain Disability Index score: admission 36.2, discharge 14.1, follow-up 11.6). As measured by the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale, anxiety and reactivity to stress decreased following treatment, and remained improved at follow-up (Estimated marginal mean score for Anxiety: admission 8.7, discharge 5.2, follow-up 4.4; Estimated marginal mean score for stress: admission 14.9, discharge 7.2, follow-up 7.6). Depression decreased with treatment, but while 1-year follow-up depression scores remained significantly lower than at admission, they were also significantly higher than at discharge (Estimated marginal means: admission 13.3, discharge 4.1, follow-up 6.6). The study supports the efficacy of the treatment model. Limitations of the study and suggestions for future research are also discussed. © 2017 American Headache Society.

A New Monte Carlo Method for Estimating Marginal Likelihoods.

PubMed

Wang, Yu-Bo; Chen, Ming-Hui; Kuo, Lynn; Lewis, Paul O

2018-06-01

Evaluating the marginal likelihood in Bayesian analysis is essential for model selection. Estimators based on a single Markov chain Monte Carlo sample from the posterior distribution include the harmonic mean estimator and the inflated density ratio estimator. We propose a new class of Monte Carlo estimators based on this single Markov chain Monte Carlo sample. This class can be thought of as a generalization of the harmonic mean and inflated density ratio estimators using a partition weighted kernel (likelihood times prior). We show that our estimator is consistent and has better theoretical properties than the harmonic mean and inflated density ratio estimators. In addition, we provide guidelines on choosing optimal weights. Simulation studies were conducted to examine the empirical performance of the proposed estimator. We further demonstrate the desirable features of the proposed estimator with two real data sets: one is from a prostate cancer study using an ordinal probit regression model with latent variables; the other is for the power prior construction from two Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group phase III clinical trials using the cure rate survival model with similar objectives.

Wave attenuation in the marginal ice zone during LIMEX

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Antony K.; Peng, Chih Y.; Vachon, Paris W.

1991-01-01

During LIMEX'87 and '89, the CCRS CV-580 aircraft collected SAR (synthetic aperture radar) data over the marginal ice zone off the coast of Newfoundland. Based upon the wavenumber spectra from SAR data, the wave attenuation rate is estimated and compared with a model. The model-data comparisons are reasonably good for the ice conditions during LIMEX (Labrador Ice Margin Experiment). Both model and SAR-derived wave attenuation rates show a roll-over at high wavenumbers.

System for sensing droplet formation time delay in a flow cytometer

DOEpatents

Van den Engh, Ger; Esposito, Richard J.

1997-01-01

A droplet flow cytometer system which includes a system to optimize the droplet formation time delay based on conditions actually experienced includes an automatic droplet sampler which rapidly moves a plurality of containers stepwise through the droplet stream while simultaneously adjusting the droplet time delay. Through the system sampling of an actual substance to be processed can be used to minimize the effect of the substances variations or the determination of which time delay is optimal. Analysis such as cell counting and the like may be conducted manually or automatically and input to a time delay adjustment which may then act with analysis equipment to revise the time delay estimate actually applied during processing. The automatic sampler can be controlled through a microprocessor and appropriate programming to bracket an initial droplet formation time delay estimate. When maximization counts through volume, weight, or other types of analysis exists in the containers, the increment may then be reduced for a more accurate ultimate setting. This may be accomplished while actually processing the sample without interruption.

Margin estimation and disturbances of irradiation field in layer-stacking carbon-ion beams for respiratory moving targets.

PubMed

Tajiri, Shinya; Tashiro, Mutsumi; Mizukami, Tomohiro; Tsukishima, Chihiro; Torikoshi, Masami; Kanai, Tatsuaki

2017-11-01

Carbon-ion therapy by layer-stacking irradiation for static targets has been practised in clinical treatments. In order to apply this technique to a moving target, disturbances of carbon-ion dose distributions due to respiratory motion have been studied based on the measurement using a respiratory motion phantom, and the margin estimation given by the square root of the summation Internal margin2+Setup margin2 has been assessed. We assessed the volume in which the variation in the ratio of the dose for a target moving due to respiration relative to the dose for a static target was within 5%. The margins were insufficient for use with layer-stacking irradiation of a moving target, and an additional margin was required. The lateral movement of a target converts to the range variation, as the thickness of the range compensator changes with the movement of the target. Although the additional margin changes according to the shape of the ridge filter, dose uniformity of 5% can be achieved for a spherical target 93 mm in diameter when the upward range variation is limited to 5 mm and the additional margin of 2.5 mm is applied in case of our ridge filter. Dose uniformity in a clinical target largely depends on the shape of the mini-peak as well as on the bolus shape. We have shown the relationship between range variation and dose uniformity. In actual therapy, the upper limit of target movement should be considered by assessing the bolus shape. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Japan Radiation Research Society and Japanese Society for Radiation Oncology.

Bioenergy crop productivity and potential climate change mitigation from marginal lands in the United States: An ecosystem modeling perspective

DOE PAGES

Qin, Zhangcai; Zhuang, Qianlai; Cai, Ximing

2014-06-16

Growing biomass feedstocks from marginal lands is becoming an increasingly attractive choice for producing biofuel as an alternative energy to fossil fuels. Here, we used a biogeochemical model at ecosystem scale to estimate crop productivity and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from bioenergy crops grown on marginal lands in the United States. Two broadly tested cellulosic crops, switchgrass, and Miscanthus, were assumed to be grown on the abandoned land and mixed crop–vegetation land with marginal productivity. Production of biomass and biofuel as well as net carbon exchange and nitrous oxide emissions were estimated in a spatially explicit manner. We found that,more » cellulosic crops, especially Miscanthus could produce a considerable amount of biomass, and the effective ethanol yield is high on these marginal lands. For every hectare of marginal land, switchgrass and Miscanthus could produce 1.0–2.3 kl and 2.9–6.9 kl ethanol, respectively, depending on nitrogen fertilization rate and biofuel conversion efficiency. Nationally, both crop systems act as net GHG sources. Switchgrass has high global warming intensity (100–390 g CO 2eq l –1 ethanol), in terms of GHG emissions per unit ethanol produced. Miscanthus, however, emits only 21–36 g CO 2eq to produce every liter of ethanol. To reach the mandated cellulosic ethanol target in the United States, growing Miscanthus on the marginal lands could potentially save land and reduce GHG emissions in comparison to growing switchgrass. Furthermore, the ecosystem modeling is still limited by data availability and model deficiencies, further efforts should be made to classify crop–specific marginal land availability, improve model structure, and better integrate ecosystem modeling into life cycle assessment.« less

Marginal cost curves for water footprint reduction in irrigated agriculture: a policy and decision making guide for efficient water use in crop production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chukalla, Abebe; Krol, Maarten; Hoekstra, Arjen

2016-04-01

Reducing water footprints (WF) in irrigated crop production is an essential element in water management, particularly in water-scarce areas. To achieve this, policy and decision making need to be supported with information on marginal cost curves that rank measures to reduce the WF according to their cost-effectiveness and enable the estimation of the cost associated with a certain WF reduction target, e.g. towards a certain reasonable WF benchmark. This paper aims to develop marginal cost curves (MCC) for WF reduction. The AquaCrop model is used to explore the effect of different measures on evapotranspiration and crop yield and thus WF that is used as input in the MCC. Measures relate to three dimensions of management practices: irrigation techniques (furrow, sprinkler, drip and subsurface drip); irrigation strategies (full and deficit irrigation); and mulching practices (no mulching, organic and synthetic mulching). A WF benchmark per crop is calculated as resulting from the best-available production technology. The marginal cost curve is plotted using the ratios of the marginal cost to WF reduction of the measures as ordinate, ranking with marginal costs rise with the increase of the reduction effort. For each measure, the marginal cost to reduce WF is estimated by comparing the associated WF and net present value (NPV) to the reference case (furrow irrigation, full irrigation, no mulching). The NPV for each measure is based on its capital costs, operation and maintenances costs (O&M) and revenues. A range of cases is considered, including: different crops, soil types and different environments. Key words: marginal cost curve, water footprint benchmark, soil water balance, crop growth, AquaCrop

H0LiCOW VIII. A weak-lensing measurement of the external convergence in the field of the lensed quasar HE 0435-1223

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tihhonova, O.; Courbin, F.; Harvey, D.; Hilbert, S.; Rusu, C. E.; Fassnacht, C. D.; Bonvin, V.; Marshall, P. J.; Meylan, G.; Sluse, D.; Suyu, S. H.; Treu, T.; Wong, K. C.

2018-07-01

We present a weak gravitational lensing measurement of the external convergence along the line of sight to the quadruply lensed quasar HE 0435-1223. Using deep r-band images from Subaru Suprime Cam, we observe galaxies down to a 3σ limiting magnitude of ˜26 mag resulting in a source galaxy density of 14 galaxies per square arcminute after redshift-based cuts. Using an inpainting technique and multiscale entropy filtering algorithm, we find that the region in close proximity to the lens has an estimated external convergence of κ =-0.012^{+0.020}_{-0.013} and is hence marginally underdense. We also rule out the presence of any halo with a mass greater than Mvir = 1.6 × 1014h-1M⊙ (68 per cent confidence limit). Our results, consistent with previous studies of this lens, confirm that the intervening mass along the line of sight to HE 0435-1223 does not affect significantly the cosmological results inferred from the time-delay measurements of that specific object.

Health Literacy and Access to Care

PubMed Central

Janke, Alex

2016-01-01

Despite well-documented links between low health literacy, low rates of health insurance coverage, and poor health outcomes, there has been almost no research on the relationship between low health literacy and self-reported access to care. This study analyzed a large, nationally representative sample of community-dwelling adults ages 50 and older to estimate the relationship between low health literacy and self-reported difficulty obtaining care. We found that individuals with low health literacy were significantly more likely than individuals with adequate health literacy to delay or forego needed care or to report difficulty finding a provider, even after controlling for other factors including health insurance coverage, employment, race/ethnicity, poverty, and general cognitive function. They were also more likely to lack a usual source of care, although this result was only marginally significant after controlling for other factors. The results show that in addition to any obstacles that low health literacy creates within the context of the clinical encounter, low health literacy also reduces the probability that people get in the door of the health care system in a timely way. PMID:27043757

H0LiCOW VIII. A weak lensing measurement of the external convergence in the field of the lensed quasar HE 0435-1223

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tihhonova, O.; Courbin, F.; Harvey, D.; Hilbert, S.; Rusu, C. E.; Fassnacht, C. D.; Bonvin, V.; Marshall, P. J.; Meylan, G.; Sluse, D.; Suyu, S. H.; Treu, T.; Wong, K. C.

2018-04-01

We present a weak gravitational lensing measurement of the external convergence along the line of sight to the quadruply lensed quasar HE 0435-1223. Using deep r-band images from Subaru-Suprime-Cam we observe galaxies down to a 3σ limiting magnitude of ˜26 mags resulting in a source galaxy density of 14 galaxies / arcmin2 after redshift-based cuts. Using an inpainting technique and Multi-Scale Entropy filtering algorithm, we find that the region in close proximity to the lens has an estimated external convergence of κ =-0.012^{+0.020}_{-0.013} and is hence marginally under-dense. We also rule out the presence of any halo with a mass greater than Mvir = 1.6 × 1014h-1M⊙ (68% confidence limit). Our results, consistent with previous studies of this lens, confirm that the intervening mass along the line of sight to HE 0435-1223 does not affect significantly the cosmological results inferred from the time delay measurements of that specific object.

Decisions in Motion: Decision Dynamics during Intertemporal Choice reflect Subjective Evaluation of Delayed Rewards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Hora, Denis; Carey, Rachel; Kervick, Aoife; Crowley, David; Dabrowski, Maciej

2016-02-01

People tend to discount rewards or losses that occur in the future. Such delay discounting has been linked to many behavioral and health problems, since people choose smaller short-term gains over greater long-term gains. We investigated whether the effect of delays on the subjective value of rewards is expressed in how people move when they make choices. Over 600 patrons of the RISK LAB exhibition hosted by the Science Gallery DublinTM played a short computer game in which they used a computer mouse to choose between amounts of money at various delays. Typical discounting effects were observed and decision dynamics indicated that choosing smaller short-term rewards became easier (i.e., shorter response times, tighter trajectories, less vacillation) as the delays until later rewards increased. Based on a sequence of choices, subjective values of delayed outcomes were estimated and decision dynamics during initial choices predicted these values. Decision dynamics are affected by subjective values of available options and thus provide a means to estimate such values.

Estimation Methods for One-Parameter Testlet Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jiao, Hong; Wang, Shudong; He, Wei

2013-01-01

This study demonstrated the equivalence between the Rasch testlet model and the three-level one-parameter testlet model and explored the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for model parameter estimation in WINBUGS. The estimation accuracy from the MCMC method was compared with those from the marginalized maximum likelihood estimation (MMLE)…

Stimulus-specific variability in color working memory with delayed estimation.

PubMed

Bae, Gi-Yeul; Olkkonen, Maria; Allred, Sarah R; Wilson, Colin; Flombaum, Jonathan I

2014-04-08

Working memory for color has been the central focus in an ongoing debate concerning the structure and limits of visual working memory. Within this area, the delayed estimation task has played a key role. An implicit assumption in color working memory research generally, and delayed estimation in particular, is that the fidelity of memory does not depend on color value (and, relatedly, that experimental colors have been sampled homogeneously with respect to discriminability). This assumption is reflected in the common practice of collapsing across trials with different target colors when estimating memory precision and other model parameters. Here we investigated whether or not this assumption is secure. To do so, we conducted delayed estimation experiments following standard practice with a memory load of one. We discovered that different target colors evoked response distributions that differed widely in dispersion and that these stimulus-specific response properties were correlated across observers. Subsequent experiments demonstrated that stimulus-specific responses persist under higher memory loads and that at least part of the specificity arises in perception and is eventually propagated to working memory. Posthoc stimulus measurement revealed that rendered stimuli differed from nominal stimuli in both chromaticity and luminance. We discuss the implications of these deviations for both our results and those from other working memory studies.

Robust state estimation for uncertain fuzzy bidirectional associative memory networks with time-varying delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vadivel, P.; Sakthivel, R.; Mathiyalagan, K.; Arunkumar, A.

2013-09-01

This paper addresses the issue of robust state estimation for a class of fuzzy bidirectional associative memory (BAM) neural networks with time-varying delays and parameter uncertainties. By constructing the Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, which contains the triple-integral term and using the free-weighting matrix technique, a set of sufficient conditions are derived in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) to estimate the neuron states through available output measurements such that the dynamics of the estimation error system is robustly asymptotically stable. In particular, we consider a generalized activation function in which the traditional assumptions on the boundedness, monotony and differentiability of the activation functions are removed. More precisely, the design of the state estimator for such BAM neural networks can be obtained by solving some LMIs, which are dependent on the size of the time derivative of the time-varying delays. Finally, a numerical example with simulation result is given to illustrate the obtained theoretical results.

Observation of β-delayed two-proton emission in the decay of 22Si

DOE PAGES

Xu, X. X.; Lin, C. J.; Sun, L. J.; ...

2017-01-19

The decay of the lightest nucleus with Tz=-3, 22Si, was studied by a silicon array. A charged-particle group at 5600 (70) keV in the decay-energy spectrum was identified experimentally as β-delayed two-proton emission from the isobaric analog state (IAS) of 22Al. Experimental results of the IAS fed by a superallowed Fermi transition were compared with our large-scale shell-model calculations. The ground-state mass of 22Si was obtained indirectly in the experiment for the first time. Two-proton separation energy for 22Si is deduced to be -108 (125) keV, which indicates that it is a very marginal candidate for two-proton ground-state emission.

Observation of β-delayed two-proton emission in the decay of 22Si

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, X. X.; Lin, C. J.; Sun, L. J.

The decay of the lightest nucleus with Tz=-3, 22Si, was studied by a silicon array. A charged-particle group at 5600 (70) keV in the decay-energy spectrum was identified experimentally as β-delayed two-proton emission from the isobaric analog state (IAS) of 22Al. Experimental results of the IAS fed by a superallowed Fermi transition were compared with our large-scale shell-model calculations. The ground-state mass of 22Si was obtained indirectly in the experiment for the first time. Two-proton separation energy for 22Si is deduced to be -108 (125) keV, which indicates that it is a very marginal candidate for two-proton ground-state emission.

An Assessment of Global Organic Carbon Flux Along Continental Margins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thunell, Robert

2004-01-01

This project was designed to use real-time and historical SeaWiFS and AVHRR data, and real-time MODIS data in order to estimate the global vertical carbon flux along continental margins. This required construction of an empirical model relating surface ocean color and physical variables like temperature and wind to vertical settling flux at sites co-located with sediment trap observations (Santa Barbara Basin, Cariaco Basin, Gulf of California, Hawaii, and Bermuda, etc), and application of the model to imagery in order to obtain spatially-weighted estimates.

Dynamic Regime Marginal Structural Mean Models for Estimation of Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes, Part II: Proofs of Results*

PubMed Central

Orellana, Liliana; Rotnitzky, Andrea; Robins, James M.

2010-01-01

In this companion article to “Dynamic Regime Marginal Structural Mean Models for Estimation of Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes, Part I: Main Content” [Orellana, Rotnitzky and Robins (2010), IJB, Vol. 6, Iss. 2, Art. 7] we present (i) proofs of the claims in that paper, (ii) a proposal for the computation of a confidence set for the optimal index when this lies in a finite set, and (iii) an example to aid the interpretation of the positivity assumption. PMID:20405047

Delay estimation in digital correlation interferometers with special consideration of the MK 2 system of the Max-Planck Institute of Radio Astronomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beyer, W. K. G.

The estimation accuracy of the group delay measured in a single video frequency band was analyzed as a function of the system bandwidth and the signal to noise ratio. Very long base interferometry (VLBI) measurements from geodetic experiments were used to check the geodetic applicability of the Mark 2 evaluation system. The geodetic observation quantities and the correlation geometry are introduced. The data flow in the VLBI experiment, the correlation analysis, the analyses and evaluation in the MK2 system, and the delay estimation procedure following the least squares method are presented. It is shown that the MK2 system is no longer up to date for geodetic applications. The superiority of the developed estimation method with respect to the interpolation algorithm is demonstrated. The numerical investigations show the deleterious influence of the distorting bit shift effects.

Counter-Narratives of La Raza Voces: An Exploration of the Personal and Professional Lived Experiences of Mexican-American/Chicana/o Faculty at California Catholic Institutions of Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Serrano, Frank V.

2013-01-01

Faculty members of color time and again encounter the greatest number of challenges and barriers (e.g., discrimination, isolation, marginalization, tokenism, inundated with workloads and service commitments, devalued research, and delayed promotion and tenure) in both entering academia and succeeding within academia. The purpose of this study was…

Estimates of delays in diagnosis of cervical cancer in Nepal

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Cervical cancer is the leading cause of cancer related deaths among women in Nepal. The long symptom to diagnosis interval means that women have advanced disease at presentation. The aim of this study was to identify, estimate and describe the extent of different delays in diagnosis of cervical cancer in Nepal. Methods A cross-sectional descriptive study was conducted in two tertiary cancer hospitals of Nepal. Face to face interview and medical records review were carried out among 110 cervical cancer patients. Total diagnostic delay was categorized into component delays: patient delay, health care providers delay, referral delay and diagnostic waiting time. Results Total 110 patients recruited in the study represented 40 districts from all three ecological regions of the country. Median total diagnostic delay was 157 days with more than three fourth (77.3%) of the patients having longer total diagnostic delay of >90 days. Out of the total diagnostic delay, median patient delay, median health care provider delay, median referral delay and median diagnostic waiting time were 68.5 days, 40 days, 5 days and 9 days respectively. Majority of the patients had experienced longer delay of each type except referral delay. Fifty seven percent of the patients had experienced longer patient delay of >60 days, 90% had suffered longer health care provider delay of >1 week, 31.8% had longer referral delay of >1 week and 66.2% had waited >1 week at diagnostic center for final diagnosis. Variation in each type of delay was observed among women with different attributes and in context of health care service delivery. Conclusions Longer delays were observed in all the diagnostic pathways except for referral delay and diagnostic waiting time. Among the delays, patient delay is of crucial importance because of its longer span, although health care provider delay is equally important. In the context of limited screening services in Nepal, the efforts should be to reduce the diagnostic delay especially patient and health care provider delay for early detection and reduction of mortality rate of cervical cancer. PMID:24533670

Modeling of Tracer Transport Delays for Improved Quantification of Regional Pulmonary 18F-FDG Kinetics, Vascular Transit Times, and Perfusion

PubMed Central

Wellman, Tyler J.; Winkler, Tilo; Vidal Melo, Marcos F.

2015-01-01

18F-FDG-PET is increasingly used to assess pulmonary inflammatory cell activity. However, current models of pulmonary 18F-FDG kinetics do not account for delays in 18F-FDG transport between the plasma sampling site and the lungs. We developed a three-compartment model of 18F-FDG kinetics that includes a delay between the right heart and the local capillary blood pool, and used this model to estimate regional pulmonary perfusion. We acquired dynamic 18F-FDG scans in 12 mechanically ventilated sheep divided into control and lung injury groups (n=6 each). The model was fit to tracer kinetics in three isogravitational regions-of-interest to estimate regional lung transport delays and regional perfusion. 13NN bolus infusion scans were acquired during a period of apnea to measure regional perfusion using an established reference method. The delayed input function model improved description of 18F-FDG kinetics (lower Akaike Information Criterion) in 98% of studied regions. Local transport delays ranged from 2.0–13.6s, averaging 6.4±2.9s, and were highest in non-dependent regions. Estimates of regional perfusion derived from model parameters were highly correlated with perfusion measurements based on 13NN-PET (R2=0.92, p<0.001). By incorporating local vascular transports delays, this model of pulmonary 18F-FDG kinetics allows for simultaneous assessment of regional lung perfusion, transit times, and inflammation. PMID:25940652

Marginal biotin deficiency can be induced experimentally in humans using a cost-effective outpatient design.

PubMed

Stratton, Shawna L; Henrich, Cindy L; Matthews, Nell I; Bogusiewicz, Anna; Dawson, Amanda M; Horvath, Thomas D; Owen, Suzanne N; Boysen, Gunnar; Moran, Jeffery H; Mock, Donald M

2012-01-01

To date, marginal, asymptomatic biotin deficiency has been successfully induced experimentally by the use of labor-intensive inpatient designs requiring rigorous dietary control. We sought to determine if marginal biotin deficiency could be induced in humans in a less expensive outpatient design incorporating a self-selected, mixed general diet. We sought to examine the efficacy of three outpatient study designs: two based on oral avidin dosing and one based on a diet high in undenatured egg white for a period of 28 d. In study design 1, participants (n = 4; 3 women) received avidin in capsules with a biotin binding capacity of 7 times the estimated dietary biotin intake of a typical self-selected diet. In study design 2, participants (n = 2; 2 women) received double the amount of avidin capsules (14 times the estimated dietary biotin intake). In study design 3, participants (n = 5; 3 women) consumed egg-white beverages containing avidin with a biotin binding capacity of 7 times the estimated dietary biotin intake. Established indices of biotin status [lymphocyte propionyl-CoA carboxylase activity; urinary excretion of 3-hydroxyisovaleric acid, 3-hydroxyisovaleryl carnitine (3HIA-carnitine), and biotin; and plasma concentration of 3HIA-carnitine] indicated that study designs 1 and 2 were not effective in inducing marginal biotin deficiency, but study design 3 was as effective as previous inpatient study designs that induced deficiency by egg-white beverage. Marginal biotin deficiency can be induced experimentally by using a cost-effective outpatient design by avidin delivery in egg-white beverages. This design should be useful to the broader nutritional research community.

MIXOR: a computer program for mixed-effects ordinal regression analysis.

PubMed

Hedeker, D; Gibbons, R D

1996-03-01

MIXOR provides maximum marginal likelihood estimates for mixed-effects ordinal probit, logistic, and complementary log-log regression models. These models can be used for analysis of dichotomous and ordinal outcomes from either a clustered or longitudinal design. For clustered data, the mixed-effects model assumes that data within clusters are dependent. The degree of dependency is jointly estimated with the usual model parameters, thus adjusting for dependence resulting from clustering of the data. Similarly, for longitudinal data, the mixed-effects approach can allow for individual-varying intercepts and slopes across time, and can estimate the degree to which these time-related effects vary in the population of individuals. MIXOR uses marginal maximum likelihood estimation, utilizing a Fisher-scoring solution. For the scoring solution, the Cholesky factor of the random-effects variance-covariance matrix is estimated, along with the effects of model covariates. Examples illustrating usage and features of MIXOR are provided.

Maximum Marginal Likelihood Estimation of a Monotonic Polynomial Generalized Partial Credit Model with Applications to Multiple Group Analysis.

PubMed

Falk, Carl F; Cai, Li

2016-06-01

We present a semi-parametric approach to estimating item response functions (IRF) useful when the true IRF does not strictly follow commonly used functions. Our approach replaces the linear predictor of the generalized partial credit model with a monotonic polynomial. The model includes the regular generalized partial credit model at the lowest order polynomial. Our approach extends Liang's (A semi-parametric approach to estimate IRFs, Unpublished doctoral dissertation, 2007) method for dichotomous item responses to the case of polytomous data. Furthermore, item parameter estimation is implemented with maximum marginal likelihood using the Bock-Aitkin EM algorithm, thereby facilitating multiple group analyses useful in operational settings. Our approach is demonstrated on both educational and psychological data. We present simulation results comparing our approach to more standard IRF estimation approaches and other non-parametric and semi-parametric alternatives.

Multisensor comparison of ice concentration estimates in the marginal ice zone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burns, B. A.; Cavalieri, D. J.; Gloersen, P.; Keller, M. R.; Campbell, W. J.

1987-01-01

Aircraft remote sensing data collected during the 1984 summer Marginal Ice Zone Experiment in the Fram Strait are used to compare ice concentration estimates derived from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery, passive microwave imagery at several frequencies, aerial photography, and spectral photometer data. The comparison is carried out not only to evaluate SAR performance against more established techniques but also to investigate how ice surface conditions, imaging geometry, and choice of algorithm parameters affect estimates made by each sensor.Active and passive microwave sensor estimates of ice concentration derived using similar algorithms show an rms difference of 13 percent. Agreement between each microwave sensor and near-simultaneous aerial photography is approximately the same (14 percent). The availability of high-resolution microwave imagery makes it possible to ascribe the discrepancies in the concentration estimates to variations in ice surface signatures in the scene.

Brittleness index of machinable dental materials and its relation to the marginal chipping factor.

PubMed

Tsitrou, Effrosyni A; Northeast, Simon E; van Noort, Richard

2007-12-01

The machinability of a material can be measured with the calculation of its brittleness index (BI). It is possible that different materials with different BI could produce restorations with varied marginal integrity. The degree of marginal chipping of a milled restoration can be estimated by the calculation of the marginal chipping factor (CF). The aim of this study is to investigate any possible correlation between the BI of machinable dental materials and the CF of the final restorations. The CEREC system was used to mill a wide range of materials used with that system; namely the Paradigm MZ100 (3M/ESPE), Vita Mark II (VITA), ProCAD (Ivoclar-Vivadent) and IPS e.max CAD (Ivoclar-Vivadent). A Vickers Hardness Tester was used for the calculation of BI, while for the calculation of CF the percentage of marginal chipping of crowns prepared with bevelled marginal angulations was estimated. The results of this study showed that Paradigm MZ100 had the lowest BI and CF, while IPS e.max CAD demonstrated the highest BI and CF. Vita Mark II and ProCAD had similar BI and CF and were lying between the above materials. Statistical analysis of the results showed that there is a perfect positive correlation between BI and CF for all the materials. The BI and CF could be both regarded as indicators of a material's machinability. Within the limitations of this study it was shown that as the BI increases so does the potential for marginal chipping, indicating that the BI of a material can be used as a predictor of the CF.

Non-melanoma skin cancer: United Kingdom National Multidisciplinary Guidelines.

PubMed

Newlands, C; Currie, R; Memon, A; Whitaker, S; Woolford, T

2016-05-01

This is the official guideline endorsed by the specialty associations involved in the care of head and neck cancer patients in the UK. This paper provides consensus recommendations on the management of cutaneous basal cell carcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma in the head and neck region on the basis of current evidence. Recommendations • Royal College of Pathologists minimum datasets for NMSC should be adhered to in order to improve patient care and help work-force planning in pathology departments. (G) • Tumour depth is of critical importance in identifying high-risk cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC), and should be reported in all cases. (R) • Appropriate imaging to determine the extent of primary NMSC is indicated when peri-neural involvement or bony invasion is suspected. (R) • In the clinically N0 neck, radiological imaging is not beneficial, and a policy of watchful waiting and patient education can be adopted. (R) • Patients with high-risk NMSC should be treated by members of a skin cancer multidisciplinary team (MDT) in secondary care. (G) • Non-infiltrative basal cell carcinoma (BCC) <2 cm in size should be excised with a margin of 4-5 mm. Smaller margins (2-3 mm) may be taken in sites where reconstructive options are limited, when reconstruction should be delayed. (R) • Where there is a high risk of recurrence, delayed reconstruction or Mohs micrographic surgery should be used. (R) • Surgical excision of low-risk cSCC with a margin of 4 mm or greater is the treatment of choice. (R) • High-risk cSCC should be excised with a margin of 6 mm or greater. (R). • Mohs micrographic surgery has a role in some high-risk cSCC cases following MDT discussion. (R) • Delayed reconstruction should be used in high-risk cSCC. (G) • Intra-operative conventional frozen section in cSCC is not recommended. (G) • Radiotherapy (RT) is an effective therapy for primary BCC and cSCC. (R) • Re-excision should be carried out for incompletely excised high-risk BCC or where there is deep margin involvement. (R) • Incompletely excised high-risk cSCC should be re-excised. (R) • Further surgery should involve confirmed marginal clearance before reconstruction. (R) • P+ N0 disease: Resection should include involved parotid tissue, combined with levels I-III neck dissection, to include the external jugular node. (R) • P+ N+ disease: Resection should include level V if that level is clinically or radiologically involved. (R) • Adjuvant RT should include level V if not dissected. (R) • P0 N+ disease: Anterior neck disease should be managed with levels I-IV neck dissection to include the external jugular node. (R) • P0 N+ posterior echelon nodal disease (i.e. occipital or post-auricular) should undergo dissection of levels II-V, with sparing of level I. (R) • Consider treatment of the ipsilateral parotid if the primary site is the anterior scalp, temple or forehead. (R) • All patients should receive education in self-examination and skin cancer prevention measures. (G) • Patients who have had a single completely excised BCC or low-risk cSCC can be discharged after a single post-operative visit. (G) • Patients with an excised high-risk cSCC should be reviewed three to six monthly for two years, with further annual review depending upon clinical risk. (G) • Those with recurrent or multiple BCCs should be offered annual review. (G).

Differential effects of delay upon visually and haptically guided grasping and perceptual judgments.

PubMed

Pettypiece, Charles E; Culham, Jody C; Goodale, Melvyn A

2009-05-01

Experiments with visual illusions have revealed a dissociation between the systems that mediate object perception and those responsible for object-directed action. More recently, an experiment on a haptic version of the visual size-contrast illusion has provided evidence for the notion that the haptic modality shows a similar dissociation when grasping and estimating the size of objects in real-time. Here we present evidence suggesting that the similarities between the two modalities begin to break down once a delay is introduced between when people feel the target object and when they perform the grasp or estimation. In particular, when grasping after a delay in a haptic paradigm, people scale their grasps differently when the target is presented with a flanking object of a different size (although the difference does not reflect a size-contrast effect). When estimating after a delay, however, it appears that people ignore the size of the flanking objects entirely. This does not fit well with the results commonly found in visual experiments. Thus, introducing a delay reveals important differences in the way in which haptic and visual memories are stored and accessed.

Theoretical basis to measure the impact of short-lasting control of an infectious disease on the epidemic peak

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background While many pandemic preparedness plans have promoted disease control effort to lower and delay an epidemic peak, analytical methods for determining the required control effort and making statistical inferences have yet to be sought. As a first step to address this issue, we present a theoretical basis on which to assess the impact of an early intervention on the epidemic peak, employing a simple epidemic model. Methods We focus on estimating the impact of an early control effort (e.g. unsuccessful containment), assuming that the transmission rate abruptly increases when control is discontinued. We provide analytical expressions for magnitude and time of the epidemic peak, employing approximate logistic and logarithmic-form solutions for the latter. Empirical influenza data (H1N1-2009) in Japan are analyzed to estimate the effect of the summer holiday period in lowering and delaying the peak in 2009. Results Our model estimates that the epidemic peak of the 2009 pandemic was delayed for 21 days due to summer holiday. Decline in peak appears to be a nonlinear function of control-associated reduction in the reproduction number. Peak delay is shown to critically depend on the fraction of initially immune individuals. Conclusions The proposed modeling approaches offer methodological avenues to assess empirical data and to objectively estimate required control effort to lower and delay an epidemic peak. Analytical findings support a critical need to conduct population-wide serological survey as a prior requirement for estimating the time of peak. PMID:21269441

Utilizing Flight Data to Update Aeroelastic Stability Estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lind, Rick; Brenner, Marty

1997-01-01

Stability analysis of high performance aircraft must account for errors in the system model. A method for computing flutter margins that incorporates flight data has been developed using robust stability theory. This paper considers applying this method to update flutter margins during a post-flight or on-line analysis. Areas of modeling uncertainty that arise when using flight data with this method are investigated. The amount of conservatism in the resulting flutter margins depends on the flight data sets used to update the model. Post-flight updates of flutter margins for an F/A-18 are presented along with a simulation of on-line updates during a flight test.

Sensitivity of postplanning target and OAR coverage estimates to dosimetric margin distribution sampling parameters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu Huijun; Gordon, J. James; Siebers, Jeffrey V.

2011-02-15

Purpose: A dosimetric margin (DM) is the margin in a specified direction between a structure and a specified isodose surface, corresponding to a prescription or tolerance dose. The dosimetric margin distribution (DMD) is the distribution of DMs over all directions. Given a geometric uncertainty model, representing inter- or intrafraction setup uncertainties or internal organ motion, the DMD can be used to calculate coverage Q, which is the probability that a realized target or organ-at-risk (OAR) dose metric D{sub v} exceeds the corresponding prescription or tolerance dose. Postplanning coverage evaluation quantifies the percentage of uncertainties for which target and OAR structuresmore » meet their intended dose constraints. The goal of the present work is to evaluate coverage probabilities for 28 prostate treatment plans to determine DMD sampling parameters that ensure adequate accuracy for postplanning coverage estimates. Methods: Normally distributed interfraction setup uncertainties were applied to 28 plans for localized prostate cancer, with prescribed dose of 79.2 Gy and 10 mm clinical target volume to planning target volume (CTV-to-PTV) margins. Using angular or isotropic sampling techniques, dosimetric margins were determined for the CTV, bladder and rectum, assuming shift invariance of the dose distribution. For angular sampling, DMDs were sampled at fixed angular intervals {omega} (e.g., {omega}=1 deg., 2 deg., 5 deg., 10 deg., 20 deg.). Isotropic samples were uniformly distributed on the unit sphere resulting in variable angular increments, but were calculated for the same number of sampling directions as angular DMDs, and accordingly characterized by the effective angular increment {omega}{sub eff}. In each direction, the DM was calculated by moving the structure in radial steps of size {delta}(=0.1,0.2,0.5,1 mm) until the specified isodose was crossed. Coverage estimation accuracy {Delta}Q was quantified as a function of the sampling parameters {omega} or {omega}{sub eff} and {delta}. Results: The accuracy of coverage estimates depends on angular and radial DMD sampling parameters {omega} or {omega}{sub eff} and {delta}, as well as the employed sampling technique. Target |{Delta}Q|<1% and OAR |{Delta}Q|<3% can be achieved with sampling parameters {omega} or {omega}{sub eff}=20 deg., {delta}=1 mm. Better accuracy (target |{Delta}Q|<0.5% and OAR |{Delta}Q|<{approx}1%) can be achieved with {omega} or {omega}{sub eff}=10 deg., {delta}=0.5 mm. As the number of sampling points decreases, the isotropic sampling method maintains better accuracy than fixed angular sampling. Conclusions: Coverage estimates for post-planning evaluation are essential since coverage values of targets and OARs often differ from the values implied by the static margin-based plans. Finer sampling of the DMD enables more accurate assessment of the effect of geometric uncertainties on coverage estimates prior to treatment. DMD sampling with {omega} or {omega}{sub eff}=10 deg. and {delta}=0.5 mm should be adequate for planning purposes.« less

Sensitivity of postplanning target and OAR coverage estimates to dosimetric margin distribution sampling parameters.

PubMed

Xu, Huijun; Gordon, J James; Siebers, Jeffrey V

2011-02-01

A dosimetric margin (DM) is the margin in a specified direction between a structure and a specified isodose surface, corresponding to a prescription or tolerance dose. The dosimetric margin distribution (DMD) is the distribution of DMs over all directions. Given a geometric uncertainty model, representing inter- or intrafraction setup uncertainties or internal organ motion, the DMD can be used to calculate coverage Q, which is the probability that a realized target or organ-at-risk (OAR) dose metric D, exceeds the corresponding prescription or tolerance dose. Postplanning coverage evaluation quantifies the percentage of uncertainties for which target and OAR structures meet their intended dose constraints. The goal of the present work is to evaluate coverage probabilities for 28 prostate treatment plans to determine DMD sampling parameters that ensure adequate accuracy for postplanning coverage estimates. Normally distributed interfraction setup uncertainties were applied to 28 plans for localized prostate cancer, with prescribed dose of 79.2 Gy and 10 mm clinical target volume to planning target volume (CTV-to-PTV) margins. Using angular or isotropic sampling techniques, dosimetric margins were determined for the CTV, bladder and rectum, assuming shift invariance of the dose distribution. For angular sampling, DMDs were sampled at fixed angular intervals w (e.g., w = 1 degree, 2 degrees, 5 degrees, 10 degrees, 20 degrees). Isotropic samples were uniformly distributed on the unit sphere resulting in variable angular increments, but were calculated for the same number of sampling directions as angular DMDs, and accordingly characterized by the effective angular increment omega eff. In each direction, the DM was calculated by moving the structure in radial steps of size delta (=0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1 mm) until the specified isodose was crossed. Coverage estimation accuracy deltaQ was quantified as a function of the sampling parameters omega or omega eff and delta. The accuracy of coverage estimates depends on angular and radial DMD sampling parameters omega or omega eff and delta, as well as the employed sampling technique. Target deltaQ/ < l% and OAR /deltaQ/ < 3% can be achieved with sampling parameters omega or omega eef = 20 degrees, delta =1 mm. Better accuracy (target /deltaQ < 0.5% and OAR /deltaQ < approximately 1%) can be achieved with omega or omega eff = 10 degrees, delta = 0.5 mm. As the number of sampling points decreases, the isotropic sampling method maintains better accuracy than fixed angular sampling. Coverage estimates for post-planning evaluation are essential since coverage values of targets and OARs often differ from the values implied by the static margin-based plans. Finer sampling of the DMD enables more accurate assessment of the effect of geometric uncertainties on coverage estimates prior to treatment. DMD sampling with omega or omega eff = 10 degrees and delta = 0.5 mm should be adequate for planning purposes.

Effects of aerodynamic heating and TPS thermal performance uncertainties on the Shuttle Orbiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodrich, W. D.; Derry, S. M.; Maraia, R. J.

1980-01-01

A procedure for estimating uncertainties in the aerodynamic-heating and thermal protection system (TPS) thermal-performance methodologies developed for the Shuttle Orbiter is presented. This procedure is used in predicting uncertainty bands around expected or nominal TPS thermal responses for the Orbiter during entry. Individual flowfield and TPS parameters that make major contributions to these uncertainty bands are identified and, by statistical considerations, combined in a manner suitable for making engineering estimates of the TPS thermal confidence intervals and temperature margins relative to design limits. Thus, for a fixed TPS design, entry trajectories for future Orbiter missions can be shaped subject to both the thermal-margin and confidence-interval requirements. This procedure is illustrated by assessing the thermal margins offered by selected areas of the existing Orbiter TPS design for an entry trajectory typifying early flight test missions.

Why the Wait? Delayed HIV Diagnosis among Men Who Have Sex with Men

PubMed Central

Thiede, Hanne; Hawes, Stephen E.; Golden, Matthew R.; Hutcheson, Rebecca; Carey, James W.; Kurth, Ann; Jenkins, Richard A.

2010-01-01

We sought to identify factors associated with delayed diagnosis of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; testing HIV-seropositive 6 months or more after HIV seroconversion), by comparing delayed testers to non-delayed testers (persons who were diagnosed within 6 months of HIV seroconversion), in King County, Washington among men who have sex with men (MSM). Participants were recruited from HIV testing sites in the Seattle area. Delayed testing status was determined by the Serologic Testing Algorithm for Recent HIV Seroconversion or a self-reported previous HIV-negative test. Quantitative data on sociodemographic characteristics, health history, and drug-use and sexual behaviors were collected via computer-assisted self-interviews. Qualitative semi-structured interviews regarding testing and risk behaviors were also conducted. Multivariate analysis was used to identify factors associated with delayed diagnosis. Content analysis was used to establish themes in the qualitative data. Out of the 77 HIV-seropositive MSM in this sample, 39 (51%) had evidence of delayed diagnosis. Factors associated with delayed testing included being African-American, homeless, “out” to 50% or less people about male-male sex, and having only one sex partner in the past 6 months. Delayed testers often cited HIV-related sickness as their reason for testing and fear and wanting to be in denial of their HIV status as reasons for not testing. Delayed testers frequently did not identify as part of the MSM community, did not recognize that they were at risk for HIV acquisition, and did not feel a responsibility to themselves or others to disclose their HIV status. This study illustrates the need to further explore circumstances around delayed diagnosis in MSM and develop outreach methods and prevention messages targeted specifically to this potentially highly marginalized population in order to detect HIV infections earlier, provide HIV care, and prevent new infections. PMID:20186493

Reconciling Estimates of the Value to Firms of Reduced Regulatory Delay in the Marketing of Their New Drugs.

PubMed

Wilmoth, Daniel R

2015-12-01

The prescription drug user fee program provides additional resources to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration at the expense of regulated firms. Those resources accelerate the review of new drugs. Faster approvals allow firms to realize profits sooner, and the program is supported politically by industry. However, published estimates of the value to firms of reduced regulatory delay vary dramatically. It is shown here that this variation is driven largely by differences in methods that correspond to differences in implicit assumptions about the effects of reduced delay. Theoretical modeling is used to derive an equation describing the relationship between estimates generated using different methods. The method likely to yield the most accurate results is identified. A reconciliation of published estimates yields a value to a firm for a one-year reduction in regulatory delay at the time of approval of about $60 million for a typical drug. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the U.S.A. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Monaural Sound Localization Based on Reflective Structure and Homomorphic Deconvolution

PubMed Central

Park, Yeonseok; Choi, Anthony

2017-01-01

The asymmetric structure around the receiver provides a particular time delay for the specific incoming propagation. This paper designs a monaural sound localization system based on the reflective structure around the microphone. The reflective plates are placed to present the direction-wise time delay, which is naturally processed by convolutional operation with a sound source. The received signal is separated for estimating the dominant time delay by using homomorphic deconvolution, which utilizes the real cepstrum and inverse cepstrum sequentially to derive the propagation response’s autocorrelation. Once the localization system accurately estimates the information, the time delay model computes the corresponding reflection for localization. Because of the structure limitation, two stages of the localization process perform the estimation procedure as range and angle. The software toolchain from propagation physics and algorithm simulation realizes the optimal 3D-printed structure. The acoustic experiments in the anechoic chamber denote that 79.0% of the study range data from the isotropic signal is properly detected by the response value, and 87.5% of the specific direction data from the study range signal is properly estimated by the response time. The product of both rates shows the overall hit rate to be 69.1%. PMID:28946625

Immediate and delayed signal of slab breakoff in Oligo/Miocene Molasse deposits from the European Alps

PubMed Central

Schlunegger, Fritz; Castelltort, Sébastien

2016-01-01

High-resolution 32–20 Ma-old stratigraphic records from the Molasse foreland basin situated north of the Alps, and Gonfolite Lombarda conglomerates deposited on the southern Alpine margin, document two consecutive sedimentary responses - an immediate and delayed response - to slab breakoff beneath the central Alps c. 32–30 Ma ago. The first signal, which occurred due to rebound and surface uplift in the Alps, was a regional and simultaneous switch from basin underfill to overfill at 30 Ma paired with shifts to coarse-grained depositional environments in the foreland basin. The second signal, however, arrived several million years after slab breakoff and was marked by larger contributions of crystalline clasts in the conglomerates, larger clast sizes, larger sediment fluxes and shifts to more proximal facies. We propose that this secondary pulse reflects a delayed whiplash-type erosional response to surface uplift, where erosion and sediment flux became amplified through positive feedbacks once larger erosional thresholds of crystalline bedrock were exceeded. PMID:27510939

Experimental demonstration of localized Brillouin gratings with low off-peak reflectivity established by perfect Golomb codes.

PubMed

Antman, Yair; Yaron, Lior; Langer, Tomi; Tur, Moshe; Levanon, Nadav; Zadok, Avi

2013-11-15

Dynamic Brillouin gratings (DBGs), inscribed by comodulating two writing pump waves with a perfect Golomb code, are demonstrated and characterized experimentally. Compared with pseudo-random bit sequence (PRBS) modulation of the pump waves, the Golomb code provides lower off-peak reflectivity due to the unique properties of its cyclic autocorrelation function. Golomb-coded DBGs allow the long variable delay of one-time probe waveforms with higher signal-to-noise ratios, and without averaging. As an example, the variable delay of return-to-zero, on-off keyed data at a 1 Gbit/s rate, by as much as 10 ns, is demonstrated successfully. The eye diagram of the reflected waveform remains open, whereas PRBS modulation of the pump waves results in a closed eye. The variable delay of data at 2.5 Gbit/s is reported as well, with a marginally open eye diagram. The experimental results are in good agreement with simulations.

Seismic potential for large and great interplate earthquakes along the Chilean and Southern Peruvian Margins of South America: A quantitative reappraisal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishenko, Stuart P.

1985-04-01

The seismic potential of the Chilean and southern Peruvian margins of South America is reevaluated to delineate those areas or segments of the margin that may be expected to experience large or great interplate earthquakes within the next 20 years (1984-2004). Long-term estimates of seismic potential (or the conditional probability of recurrence within a specified period of time) are based on (1) statistical analysis of historic repeat time data using Weibull distributions and (2) deterministic estimates of recurrence times based on the time-predictable model of earthquake recurrence. Both methods emphasize the periodic nature of large and great earthquake recurrence, and are compared with estimates of probability based on the assumption of Poisson-type behavior. The estimates of seismic potential presented in this study are long-term forecasts only, as the temporal resolution (or standard deviation) of both methods is taken to range from ±15% to ±25% of the average or estimated repeat time. At present, the Valparaiso region of central Chile (32°-35°S) has a high potential or probability of recurrence in the next 20 years. Coseismic uplift data associated with previous shocks in 1822 and 1906 suggest that this area may have already started to rerupture in 1971-1973. Average repeat times also suggest this area is due for a great shock within the next 20 years. Flanking segments of the Chilean margin, Coquimbo-Illapel (30°-32°S) and Talca-Concepcion (35°-38°S), presently have poorly constrained but possibly quite high potentials for a series of large or great shocks within the next 20 years. In contrast, the rupture zone of the great 1960 earthquake (37°-46°S) has the lowest potential along the margin and is not expected to rerupture in a great earthquake within the next 100 years. In the north, the seismic potentials of the Mollendo-Arica (17°-18°S) and Arica-Antofagasta (18°-24°S) segments (which last ruptured during great earthquakes in 1868 and 1877) are also high, but poorly constrained.

A closed-loop time-alignment system for baseband combining

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feria, Y.

1994-01-01

In baseband combining, the key element is the time alignment of the baseband signals. This article describes a closed-loop time-alignment system that estimates and adjusts the relative delay between two baseband signals received from two different antennas for the signals to be coherently combined. This system automatically determines which signal is advanced and delays it accordingly with a resolution of a sample period. The performance of the loop is analyzed, and the analysis is verified through simulation. The variance of the delay estimates and the signal-to-noise ratio degradation in the simulations agree with the theoretical calculations.

Evaluation of Swift Start TCP in Long-Delay Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lawas-Grodek, Frances J.; Tran, Diepchi T.

2004-01-01

This report presents the test results of the Swift Start algorithm in single-flow and multiple-flow testbeds under the effects of high propagation delays, various slow bottlenecks, and small queue sizes. Although this algorithm estimates capacity and implements packet pacing, the findings were that in a heavily congested link, the Swift Start algorithm will not be applicable. The reason is that the bottleneck estimation is falsely influenced by timeouts induced by retransmissions and the expiration of delayed acknowledgment (ACK) timers, thus causing the modified Swift Start code to fall back to regular transmission control protocol (TCP).

Tropospheric delays from GNSS for application in coastal altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, M. Joana; Pires, Nelson; Lázaro, Clara; Nunes, Alexandra L.

2013-04-01

In the scope of the development of an improved methodology for the computation of the wet tropospheric correction for coastal altimetry, based on the use of tropospheric delays derived from GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite Systems), various studies have been conducted aiming to improve the estimation, at global scale, of GNSS-derived tropospheric delays.Amongst these studies, two are presented in this paper: (1) a global assessment of zenith total delays (ZTD) determined at international data centres such as EPN (EUREF Permanent Network) and IGS (International GNSS Service) by comparison with ZTD solutions computed at the University of Porto (U.Porto) using state-of-the-art methodologies and ZTD estimated from ERA Interim, the latest reanalysis dataset from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), (2) evaluation of the accuracy of the hydrostatic component of the tropospheric delay (zenith hydrostatic delay, ZHD) estimation from different sources of surface pressure.When compared with ERA Interim, both IGS and U.Porto ZTD are homogeneous with a mean standard deviation of the differences, for all analysed sites, of 12 mm. The U.Porto and IGS ZTD agree within 4 mm (1σ), while for EPN the same result is only valid for the period after November 2006. Before that date, the EPN solutions are slightly degraded and require an adequate correction.Aiming to evaluate the accuracy of ZHD determination from various sources of atmospheric pressure, a study is presented that compares ZHD values determined with in situ measurements of surface pressure at a global set of 63 coastal barometric sites (GNSS stations), the corresponding values obtained from ECMWF operational model, ERA Interim sea level pressure (SLP) and ZHD from the Vienna Mapping Functions 1 (VMF1).Results show that the global grids of sea level pressure provided by ECMWF operational model, either at 0.25° or 0.125° spacing, or the ERA Interim reanalysis product at 1.5°, allow the estimation of the hydrostatic component of the tropospheric delay with an accuracy of 1 to 3 mm at global scale, provided an adequate model for the height dependence of atmospheric pressure is adopted. In comparison, for VMF1 grids provided at 2.5° spacing, although the overall accuracy of ZHD estimation is 2-4 mm in most sites, in regions with high variability and strong seasonal signal in the surface pressure, VMF1 can reveal errors with a clear annual pattern and epochs for which the error exceeds the centimetre level. When used to estimate the wet component of the tropospheric delay (zenith wet delay, ZWD) for coastal altimetry, these errors can translate into errors of similar magnitude in sea level studies.

Estimating tropospheric phase delay in SAR interferograms using Global Atmospheric Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doin, M.; Lasserre, C.; Peltzer, G.; Cavalie, O.; Doubre, C.

2008-12-01

The main limiting factor on the accuracy of Interferometric SAR (InSAR) measurements comes from phase propagation delays through the Earth's troposphere. The delay can be divided into a stratified component, which correlates with the topography and often dominates the tropospheric signal in InSAR data, and a turbulent component. The stratified delay can be expressed as a function of atmospheric pressure P, temperature T, and water vapor partial pressure e vertical profiles. We compare the stratified delay computed using results from global atmospheric models with the topography-dependent signal observed in interferograms covering three test areas in different geographic and climatic environments: Lake Mead, Nevada, USA, the Haiyuan fault area, Gansu, China, and Afar, Republic of Djibouti. For each site we compute a multi-year series of interferograms. The phase-elevation ratio is estimated for each interferogram and the series is inverted to form a timeline of delay-elevation ratios characterizing each epoch of data acquisition. InSAR derived ratios are in good agreement with the ratios computed from global atmospheric models. This agreement shows that both estimations of the delay-elevation ratio can be used to perform a first order correction of the InSAR phase. Seasonal variations of the atmosphere significantly affect the phase delay throughout the year, aliasing the results of time series inversions using temporal smoothing or data stacking when the acquisitions are not evenly distributed in time. This is particularly critical when the spatial shape of the signal of interest correlates with topography. In the Lake Mead area, the irregular temporal sampling of our SAR data results in an interannual bias of amplitude ~2~cm on range change estimates. In the Haiyuan Fault area, the coarse and uneven data sampling results in a bias of up to ~0.5~cm/yr on the line of sight velocity across the fault. In the Afar area, the seasonal signal exceeds the deformation signal in the phase time series. In all cases, correcting interferograms from the stratified delay helps removing these biases. Finally we suggest that the phase delay correction can potentially be improved by introducing a non-linear dependance to the elevation, as consistent non-linear relationships are observed in many interferograms as well as in global atmospheric models.

Nonrhabdomyosarcoma soft tissue sarcoma (NRSTS) in pediatric and young adult patients: Results from a prospective study using limited-margin radiotherapy.

PubMed

Tinkle, Christopher L; Fernandez-Pineda, Israel; Sykes, April; Lu, Zhaohua; Hua, Chia-Ho; Neel, Michael D; Bahrami, Armita; Shulkin, Barry L; Kaste, Sue C; Pappo, Alberto; Spunt, Sheri L; Krasin, Matthew J

2017-11-15

Indications for and delivery of adjuvant therapies for pediatric nonrhabdomyosarcoma soft tissue sarcoma (NRSTS) have been derived largely from adult studies; therefore, significant concern remains regarding radiation exposure to normal tissue. The authors report long-term treatment outcomes and toxicities for pediatric and young adult patients with high-grade NRSTS who were treated on a prospective trial using limited-margin radiotherapy. Sixty-two patients (ages 3-22 years) with predominantly high-grade NRSTS requiring radiation were treated on a phase 2 institutional study of conformal external-beam radiotherapy and/or brachytherapy using a 1.5-cm to 2-cm anatomically constrained margin. The estimated cumulative incidence of local failure, Gray's method estimated cumulative incidence of local failure, Kaplan-Meier method estimated survival, competing-risk regression model determined predictors of disease outcome, and toxicity was reported according to CTCAE v2.0. At a median follow-up of 5.1 years (range, 0.2-10.9 years), 9 patients had experienced local failure. The 5-year overall cumulative incidence of local failure was 14.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.2%-25%), and all but 1 local failure occurred outside the highest-dose irradiation volume. The 5-year Kaplan-Meier estimates for event-free and overall survival were 49.3% (95% CI, 36.3%-61.1%) and 67.9% (95% CI, 54.2%-78.3%), respectively. Multivariable analysis indicated that younger age was the only independent predictor of local recurrence (P = .004). The 5-year cumulative incidence of grade 3 or 4 late toxicity was 15% (95% CI, 7.2%-25.3%). The delivery of limited-margin radiotherapy using conformal external-beam radiotherapy or brachytherapy provides a high rate of local tumor control without an increase in marginal failures and with acceptable treatment-related morbidity. Cancer 2017;123:4419-29. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Read margin analysis of crossbar arrays using the cell-variability-aware simulation method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Wookyung; Choi, Sujin; Shin, Hyungsoon

2018-02-01

This paper proposes a new concept of read margin analysis of crossbar arrays using cell-variability-aware simulation. The size of the crossbar array should be considered to predict the read margin characteristic of the crossbar array because the read margin depends on the number of word lines and bit lines. However, an excessively high-CPU time is required to simulate large arrays using a commercial circuit simulator. A variability-aware MATLAB simulator that considers independent variability sources is developed to analyze the characteristics of the read margin according to the array size. The developed MATLAB simulator provides an effective method for reducing the simulation time while maintaining the accuracy of the read margin estimation in the crossbar array. The simulation is also highly efficient in analyzing the characteristic of the crossbar memory array considering the statistical variations in the cell characteristics.

Marginal Hospital Cost of Surgery-related Hospital-acquired Pressure Ulcers.

PubMed

Spector, William D; Limcangco, Rhona; Owens, Pamela L; Steiner, Claudia A

2016-09-01

Patients who develop hospital-acquired pressure ulcers (HAPUs) are more likely to die, have longer hospital stays, and are at greater risk of infections. Patients undergoing surgery are prone to developing pressure ulcers (PUs). To estimate the hospital marginal cost of a HAPU for adults patients who were hospitalized for major surgeries, adjusted for patient characteristics, comorbidities, procedures, and hospital characteristics. Data are from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) State Inpatient Databases and the Medicare Patient Safety Monitoring System for 2011 and 2012. PU information was obtained using retrospective structured record review from trained MPMS data abstractors. Costs are derived using HCUP hospital-specific cost-to-charge ratios. Marginal cost estimates were made using Extended Estimating Equations. We estimated the marginal cost at the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of the cost distribution using Simultaneous Quantile Regression. We find that 3.5% of major surgical patients developed HAPUs and that the HAPUs added ∼$8200 to the cost of a surgical stay after adjusting for comorbidities, patient characteristics, procedures, and hospital characteristics. This is an ∼44% addition to the cost of a major surgical stay but less than half of the unadjusted cost difference. In addition, we find that for high-cost stays (75th percentile) HAPUs added ∼$12,100, whereas for low-cost stays (25th percentile) HAPUs added ∼$3900. This paper suggests that HAPUs add ∼44% to the cost of major surgical hospital stays, but the amount varies depending on the total cost of the visit.

Vertical motions of passive margins of Greenland: influence of ice sheet, glacial erosion, and sediment transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souche, A.; Medvedev, S.; Hartz, E. H.

2009-04-01

The sub-ice topography of Greenland is characterized by a central depression below the sea level and by elevated (in some places significantly) margins. Whereas the central depression may be explained by significant load of the Greenland ice sheet, the origin of the peripheral relief remains unclear. We analyze the influence of formation of the ice sheet and carving by glacial erosion on the evolution of topography along the margins of Greenland. Our analysis shows that: (1) The heavy ice loading in the central part of Greenland and consecutive peripheral bulging has a negligible effect on amplitude of the uplifted Greenland margins. (2) First order estimates of uplift due to isostatic readjustment caused by glacial erosion and unloading in the fjord systems is up to 1.1 km. (3) The increase of accuracy of topographic data (comparing several data sets of resolution with grid size from 5 km to 50 m) results in increase of the isostatic response in the model. (4) The analysis of mass redistribution during erosion-sedimentation process and data on age of offshore sediments allows us to estimate the timing of erosion along the margins of Greenland. This ongoing analysis, however, requires careful account for the link between sources (localized glacial erosion) and sinks (offshore sedimentary basins around Greenland).

Safety margins in zircaloy oxidation and embrittlement criteria for emergency core cooling system acceptance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williford, R.E.

1986-09-01

Current emergency core cooling system acceptance criteria for light water reactors specify that, under loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions, the Baker-Just (BJ) correlation must be used to calculate Zircaloy-steam oxidation, calculated peak cladding temperatures (PCT) must not exceed 1204/sup 0/C, and calculated oxidation must not exceed 17% equivalent cladding reacted (ECR). An appropriately defined minimum margin of safety was estimated for each of these criteria. The currently required BJ oxidation correlation provides margins only over the 1100 to 1500/sup 0/C temperature range at the 95% confidence level. The PCT margins for thermal shock and handling failures are adequate at oxidation temperaturesmore » above 1204/sup 0/C for up to 210 and 160 s, respectively, at the 95% confidence level. The ECR thermal shock and handling margins at the 50 and 95% confidence levels, respectively, range between 2 and 7% ECR for the BJ correlation, but vanish at temperatures above 1100 to 1160/sup 0/C for the best-estimate Cathcart-Pawel correlation. However, use of the Cathcart Pawel correlation for ''design basis'' LOCA calculations can be justified at the 85 to 88% confidence level if cooling rate effects can be neglected.« less

The Meandering Margin of the Meteorological Moist Tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mapes, Brian E.; Chung, Eui Seok; Hannah, Walter M.; Masunaga, Hirohiko; Wimmers, Anthony J.; Velden, Christopher S.

2018-01-01

Bimodally distributed column water vapor (CWV) indicates a well-defined moist regime in the Tropics, above a margin value near 48 kg m-2 in current climate (about 80% of column saturation). Maps reveal this margin as a meandering, sinuous synoptic contour bounding broad plateaus of the moist regime. Within these plateaus, convective storms of distinctly smaller convective and mesoscales occur sporadically. Satellite data composites across the poleward most margin reveal its sharpness, despite the crude averaging: precipitation doubles within 100 km, marked by both enhancement and deepening of cloudiness. Transported patches and filaments of the moist regime cause consequential precipitation events within and beyond the Tropics. Distinguishing synoptic flows that cross the margin from flows that move the margin is made possible by a novel satellite-based Lagrangian CWV tendency estimate. Climate models do not reliably reproduce the observed bimodal distribution, so studying the moist mode's maintenance processes and the margin-zone air mass transformations, guided by the Lagrangian tendency product, might importantly constrain model moist process treatments.

Marginalized zero-inflated negative binomial regression with application to dental caries

PubMed Central

Preisser, John S.; Das, Kalyan; Long, D. Leann; Divaris, Kimon

2015-01-01

The zero-inflated negative binomial regression model (ZINB) is often employed in diverse fields such as dentistry, health care utilization, highway safety, and medicine to examine relationships between exposures of interest and overdispersed count outcomes exhibiting many zeros. The regression coefficients of ZINB have latent class interpretations for a susceptible subpopulation at risk for the disease/condition under study with counts generated from a negative binomial distribution and for a non-susceptible subpopulation that provides only zero counts. The ZINB parameters, however, are not well-suited for estimating overall exposure effects, specifically, in quantifying the effect of an explanatory variable in the overall mixture population. In this paper, a marginalized zero-inflated negative binomial regression (MZINB) model for independent responses is proposed to model the population marginal mean count directly, providing straightforward inference for overall exposure effects based on maximum likelihood estimation. Through simulation studies, the finite sample performance of MZINB is compared to marginalized zero-inflated Poisson, Poisson, and negative binomial regression. The MZINB model is applied in the evaluation of a school-based fluoride mouthrinse program on dental caries in 677 children. PMID:26568034

Economics of feeding pasteurized colostrum and pasteurized waste milk to dairy calves.

PubMed

Jamaluddin, A A; Carpenter, T E; Hird, D W; Thurmond, M C

1996-08-15

To estimate the marginal contribution of pasteurization of waste milk and colostrum to gross margin per calf at weaning and to estimate the minimum number of cattle on a dairy farm for pasteurization to be profitable. Randomized, controlled, clinical trial. 300 Holstein calves. The performance of calves fed pasteurized colostrum and waste milk was compared with the performance of calves fed nonpasteurized colostrum and waste milk. Costs, revenues, and gross margins for the 2 groups were compared. Calves fed pasteurized colostrum and waste milk were worth an extra $8.13 in gross margin/calf, compared with calves fed nonpasteurized colostrum and waste milk. The minimum number of cattle for which feeding pasteurized colostrum and waste milk was calculated to be economically feasible was 315 calves/d (1,260-cow dairy farm). An economic benefit was associated with feeding pasteurized colostrum and waste milk. Additional benefits that may accrue include higher mean weight gain and lower mortality rate of calves as well as calves that have fewer days in which they are affected with diarrhea and pneumonia.

Army Corps of Engineers: Factors Contributing to Cost Increases and Schedule Delays in the Olmsted Locks and Dam Project

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-02-01

to cost increases and schedule delays and (2) what is known about the costs of benefits foregone because of project delays. GAO compared the...Contributors to Cost Increases and Schedule Delays 13 Total Cost of Benefits Foregone from Project Delays at Olmsted Is Uncertain 27 Agency Comments...would take 7 years. The Corps also estimated benefits , such as transportation cost savings, associated with the project. However, once the project was

A corrected formulation for marginal inference derived from two-part mixed models for longitudinal semi-continuous data

PubMed Central

Su, Li; Farewell, Vernon T

2013-01-01

For semi-continuous data which are a mixture of true zeros and continuously distributed positive values, the use of two-part mixed models provides a convenient modelling framework. However, deriving population-averaged (marginal) effects from such models is not always straightforward. Su et al. presented a model that provided convenient estimation of marginal effects for the logistic component of the two-part model but the specification of marginal effects for the continuous part of the model presented in that paper was based on an incorrect formulation. We present a corrected formulation and additionally explore the use of the two-part model for inferences on the overall marginal mean, which may be of more practical relevance in our application and more generally. PMID:24201470

Reducing Uncertainty in the American Community Survey through Data-Driven Regionalization

PubMed Central

Spielman, Seth E.; Folch, David C.

2015-01-01

The American Community Survey (ACS) is the largest survey of US households and is the principal source for neighborhood scale information about the US population and economy. The ACS is used to allocate billions in federal spending and is a critical input to social scientific research in the US. However, estimates from the ACS can be highly unreliable. For example, in over 72% of census tracts, the estimated number of children under 5 in poverty has a margin of error greater than the estimate. Uncertainty of this magnitude complicates the use of social data in policy making, research, and governance. This article presents a heuristic spatial optimization algorithm that is capable of reducing the margins of error in survey data via the creation of new composite geographies, a process called regionalization. Regionalization is a complex combinatorial problem. Here rather than focusing on the technical aspects of regionalization we demonstrate how to use a purpose built open source regionalization algorithm to process survey data in order to reduce the margins of error to a user-specified threshold. PMID:25723176

High Stability Engine Control (HISTEC): Flight Demonstration Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Delaat, John C.; Southwick, Robert D.; Gallops, George W.; Orme, John S.

1998-01-01

Future aircraft turbine engines, both commercial and military, must be able to accommodate expected increased levels of steady-state and dynamic engine-face distortion. The current approach of incorporating sufficient design stall margin to tolerate these increased levels of distortion would significantly reduce performance. The High Stability Engine Control (HISTEC) program has developed technologies for an advanced, integrated engine control system that uses measurement- based estimates of distortion to enhance engine stability. The resulting distortion tolerant control reduces the required design stall margin, with a corresponding increase in performance and/or decrease in fuel burn. The HISTEC concept was successfully flight demonstrated on the F-15 ACTIVE aircraft during the summer of 1997. The flight demonstration was planned and carried out in two parts, the first to show distortion estimation, and the second to show distortion accommodation. Post-flight analysis shows that the HISTEC technologies are able to successfully estimate and accommodate distortion, transiently setting the stall margin requirement on-line and in real-time. Flight demonstration of the HISTEC technologies has significantly reduced the risk of transitioning the technology to tactical and commercial engines.

Reducing uncertainty in the american community survey through data-driven regionalization.

PubMed

Spielman, Seth E; Folch, David C

2015-01-01

The American Community Survey (ACS) is the largest survey of US households and is the principal source for neighborhood scale information about the US population and economy. The ACS is used to allocate billions in federal spending and is a critical input to social scientific research in the US. However, estimates from the ACS can be highly unreliable. For example, in over 72% of census tracts, the estimated number of children under 5 in poverty has a margin of error greater than the estimate. Uncertainty of this magnitude complicates the use of social data in policy making, research, and governance. This article presents a heuristic spatial optimization algorithm that is capable of reducing the margins of error in survey data via the creation of new composite geographies, a process called regionalization. Regionalization is a complex combinatorial problem. Here rather than focusing on the technical aspects of regionalization we demonstrate how to use a purpose built open source regionalization algorithm to process survey data in order to reduce the margins of error to a user-specified threshold.

Local health care expenditure plans and their opportunity costs.

PubMed

Karlsberg Schaffer, Sarah; Sussex, Jon; Devlin, Nancy; Walker, Andrew

2015-09-01

In the UK, approval decisions by Health Technology Assessment bodies are made using a cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) threshold, the value of which is based on little empirical evidence. We test the feasibility of estimating the "true" value of the threshold in NHS Scotland using information on marginal services (those planned to receive significant (dis)investment). We also explore how the NHS makes spending decisions and the role of cost per QALY evidence in this process. We identify marginal services using NHS Board-level responses to the 2012/13 Budget Scrutiny issued by the Scottish Government, supplemented with information on prioritisation processes derived from interviews with Finance Directors. We search the literature for cost-effectiveness evidence relating to marginal services. The cost-effectiveness estimates of marginal services vary hugely and thus it was not possible to obtain a reliable estimate of the threshold. This is unsurprising given the finding that cost-effectiveness evidence is rarely used to justify expenditure plans, which are driven by a range of other factors. Our results highlight the differences in objectives between HTA bodies and local health service decision makers. We also demonstrate that, even if it were desirable, the use of cost-effectiveness evidence at local level would be highly challenging without extensive investment in health economics resources. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

HIV prevention trial design in an era of effective pre-exposure prophylaxis.

PubMed

Cutrell, Amy; Donnell, Deborah; Dunn, David T; Glidden, David V; Grobler, Anneke; Hanscom, Brett; Stancil, Britt S; Meyer, R Daniel; Wang, Ronnie; Cuffe, Robert L

2017-01-01

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has demonstrated remarkable effectiveness protecting at-risk individuals from HIV-1 infection. Despite this record of effectiveness, concerns persist about the diminished protective effect observed in women compared with men and the influence of adherence and risk behaviors on effectiveness in targeted subpopulations. Furthermore, the high prophylactic efficacy of the first PrEP agent, tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC), presents challenges for demonstrating the efficacy of new candidates. Trials of new agents would typically require use of non-inferiority (NI) designs in which acceptable efficacy for an experimental agent is determined using pre-defined margins based on the efficacy of the proven active comparator (i.e. TDF/FTC) in placebo-controlled trials. Setting NI margins is a critical step in designing registrational studies. Under- or over-estimation of the margin can call into question the utility of the study in the registration package. The dependence on previous placebo-controlled trials introduces the same issues as external/historical controls. These issues will need to be addressed using trial design features such as re-estimated NI margins, enrichment strategies, run-in periods, crossover between study arms, and adaptive re-estimation of sample sizes. These measures and other innovations can help to ensure that new PrEP agents are made available to the public using stringent standards of evidence.

Intersection delay estimation from floating car data via principal curves: a case study on Beijing's road network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiliang; Lu, Feng; Zhang, Hengcai; Qiu, Peiyuan

2013-06-01

It is a pressing task to estimate the real-time travel time on road networks reliably in big cities, even though floating car data has been widely used to reflect the real traffic. Currently floating car data are mainly used to estimate the real-time traffic conditions on road segments, and has done little for turn delay estimation. However, turn delays on road intersections contribute significantly to the overall travel time on road networks in modern cities. In this paper, we present a technical framework to calculate the turn delays on road networks with float car data. First, the original floating car data collected with GPS equipped taxies was cleaned and matched to a street map with a distributed system based on Hadoop and MongoDB. Secondly, the refined trajectory data set was distributed among 96 time intervals (from 0: 00 to 23: 59). All of the intersections where the trajectories passed were connected with the trajectory segments, and constituted an experiment sample, while the intersections on arterial streets were specially selected to form another experiment sample. Thirdly, a principal curve-based algorithm was presented to estimate the turn delays at the given intersections. The algorithm argued is not only statistically fitted the real traffic conditions, but also is insensitive to data sparseness and missing data problems, which currently are almost inevitable with the widely used floating car data collecting technology. We adopted the floating car data collected from March to June in Beijing city in 2011, which contains more than 2.6 million trajectories generated from about 20000 GPS-equipped taxicabs and accounts for about 600 GB in data volume. The result shows the principal curve based algorithm we presented takes precedence over traditional methods, such as mean and median based approaches, and holds a higher estimation accuracy (about 10%-15% higher in RMSE), as well as reflecting the changing trend of traffic congestion. With the estimation result for the travel delay at intersections, we analyzed the spatio-temporal distribution of turn delays in three time scenarios (0: 00-0: 15, 8: 15-8: 30 and 12: 00-12: 15). It indicates that during one's single trip in Beijing, average 60% of the travel time on the road networks is wasted on the intersections, and this situation is even worse in daytime. Although the 400 main intersections take only 2.7% of all the intersections, they occupy about 18% travel time.

Assessment of safety margins in zircaloy oxidation and embrittlement criteria for ECCS acceptance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williford, R.E.

1986-04-01

Current Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) Acceptance Criteria for light-water reactors include certain requirements pertaining to calculations of core performance during a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA). The Baker-Just correlation must be used to calculate Zircaloy-steam oxidation, calculated peak cladding temperatures (PCT) must not exceed 1204/sup 0/C, and calculated oxidation must not exceed 17% equivalent cladding reacted (17% ECR). The minimum margin of safety was estimated for each of these criteria, based on research performed in the last decade. Margins were defined as the amounts of conservatism over and above the expected extreme values computed from the data base atmore » specified confidence levels. The currently required Baker-Just oxidation correlation provides margins only over the 1100/sup 0/C to 1500/sup 0/C temperature range at the 95% confidence level. The PCT margins for thermal shock and handling failures are adequate at oxidation temperatures above 1204/sup 0/C for 210 and 160 seconds, respectively, at the 95% confidence level. ECR thermal shock and handling margins at the 50% and 95% confidence levels, respectively, range between 2% and 7% ECR for the Baker-Just correlation, but vanish at temperatures between 1100/sup 0/C and 1160/sup 0/C for the best-estimate Cathcart-Pawel correlation. Use of the Cathcart-Pawel correlation for LOCA calculations can be justified at the 85% to 88% confidence level if cooling rate effects can be neglected. 75 refs., 21 figs.« less

Compressional reactivation of hyperextended domains on a rifted margin: a requirement for a reappraisal of traditional restoration procedures?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cadenas Martínez, P.; Fernandez Viejo, G.; Pulgar, J. A.

2017-12-01

The North Iberian margin is an inverted hyperextended rifted margin that preserves the initial stages of compressional reactivation. Rift inheritance conditioned in a determinant way the contractional reactivation. The underthrusting of the hyperextended distal domains beneath the platform and the formation of an accretionary wedge at the toe of the slope focused most of the compression. The underthrusting gave place to the formation of a crustal root and the uplifting of the Cantabrian Mountains onshore. Meanwhile, the main rift basins within the continental platform were slightly inverted. Plate kinematic reconstructions and palinspatic restorations have provided different shortening values. Thereby, the amount of shortening linked with the Cenozoic compression is still unclear and a matter of debate on this area.In this work, we present a full cross-section at the central part of the North Iberian margin developed from the restoration of a high quality depth migrated seismic profile running from the continental platform to the Biscay abyssal plain. A shortening calculation gives an estimate of about 1 km within the Asturian Basin, in the continental platform, while in the accretionary wedge at the bottom of the slope, shortening values ranges between 12 km and 15 km. The limited values estimated within the Asturian Basin support the mild inversion observed within this basin, which preserves most of the extensional imprint. Within the abyssal plain, shortening values differ from previous estimations and cannot account for a high amount of compression in the upper crust. Deformation of the hyperextended crust and the exhumed mantle domains inherited from the rifting processes would have accommodated most of the compression. Restoration of these domains seems to be the key to decipher the structure and the tectonic evolution of the reactivated rifted margin but cannot be solved accurately using traditional restoration methods. This leads to a reappraisal of the traditional way of restoring compressional belt transects and particularly, when previous hyperextended domains within the rifted margins are involved.

The effect of the dynamic wet troposphere on radio interferometric measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Treuhaft, R. N.; Lanyi, G. E.

1987-01-01

A statistical model of water vapor fluctuations is used to describe the effect of the dynamic wet troposphere on radio interferometric measurements. It is assumed that the spatial structure of refractivity is approximated by Kolmogorov turbulence theory, and that the temporal fluctuations are caused by spatial patterns moved over a site by the wind, and these assumptions are examined for the VLBI delay and delay rate observables. The results suggest that the delay rate measurement error is usually dominated by water vapor fluctuations, and water vapor induced VLBI parameter errors and correlations are determined as a function of the delay observable errors. A method is proposed for including the water vapor fluctuations in the parameter estimation method to obtain improved parameter estimates and parameter covariances.

SU-E-J-150: Impact of Intrafractional Prostate Motion On the Accuracy and Efficiency of Prostate SBRT Delivery: A Retrospective Analysis of Prostate Tracking Log Files

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xiang, H; Hirsch, A; Willins, J

2014-06-01

Purpose: To measure intrafractional prostate motion by time-based stereotactic x-ray imaging and investigate the impact on the accuracy and efficiency of prostate SBRT delivery. Methods: Prostate tracking log files with 1,892 x-ray image registrations from 18 SBRT fractions for 6 patients were retrospectively analyzed. Patient setup and beam delivery sessions were reviewed to identify extended periods of large prostate motion that caused delays in setup or interruptions in beam delivery. The 6D prostate motions were compared to the clinically used PTV margin of 3–5 mm (3 mm posterior, 5 mm all other directions), a hypothetical PTV margin of 2–3 mmmore » (2 mm posterior, 3 mm all other directions), and the rotation correction limits (roll ±2°, pitch ±5° and yaw ±3°) of CyberKnife to quantify beam delivery accuracy. Results: Significant incidents of treatment start delay and beam delivery interruption were observed, mostly related to large pitch rotations of ≥±5°. Optimal setup time of 5–15 minutes was recorded in 61% of the fractions, and optimal beam delivery time of 30–40 minutes in 67% of the fractions. At a default imaging interval of 15 seconds, the percentage of prostate motion beyond PTV margin of 3–5 mm varied among patients, with a mean at 12.8% (range 0.0%–31.1%); and the percentage beyond PTV margin of 2–3 mm was at a mean of 36.0% (range 3.3%–83.1%). These timely detected offsets were all corrected real-time by the robotic manipulator or by operator intervention at the time of treatment interruptions. Conclusion: The durations of patient setup and beam delivery were directly affected by the occurrence of large prostate motion. Frequent imaging of down to 15 second interval is necessary for certain patients. Techniques for reducing prostate motion, such as using endorectal balloon, can be considered to assure consistently higher accuracy and efficiency of prostate SBRT delivery.« less

Casualty Evacuation Delay and Outcomes

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-01-01

consequences of delay in therapy on wounded individuals. The contractor was charged with studying the effect of delay on evacuation on outcome of...process. 3 There are a remarkably small proportion of patient diagnoses and states in which time has an effect on outcome . This is because the vast...emphasis on estimating the effect of delayed evacuation on injury outcome and means to mitigating such effects . Since some of the Specific Aims were

Strategy And The Spreadsheet: Optimizing The Total Army To Satisfy Both

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-02-11

historically reduces military end strength at the conclusion of major conflicts. The Budget Control Act of 2011 imposed sequestration spending limits on...the military that began the process of drawing down the military through fiscal year 2021. While the 2016 defense budget delays sequestration cuts... budget by a wide margin, has started repeating a historical cycle of budget driven defense cuts. The Army’s large force represents an attractive

Using convolutional decoding to improve time delay and phase estimation in digital communications

DOEpatents

Ormesher, Richard C [Albuquerque, NM; Mason, John J [Albuquerque, NM

2010-01-26

The time delay and/or phase of a communication signal received by a digital communication receiver can be estimated based on a convolutional decoding operation that the communication receiver performs on the received communication signal. If the original transmitted communication signal has been spread according to a spreading operation, a corresponding despreading operation can be integrated into the convolutional decoding operation.

An Inequality Constrained Least-Squares Approach as an Alternative Estimation Procedure for Atmospheric Parameters from VLBI Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halsig, Sebastian; Artz, Thomas; Iddink, Andreas; Nothnagel, Axel

2016-12-01

On its way through the atmosphere, radio signals are delayed and affected by bending and attenuation effects relative to a theoretical path in vacuum. In particular, the neutral part of the atmosphere contributes considerably to the error budget of space-geodetic observations. At the same time, space-geodetic techniques become more and more important in the understanding of the Earth's atmosphere, because atmospheric parameters can be linked to the water vapor content in the atmosphere. The tropospheric delay is usually taken into account by applying an adequate model for the hydrostatic component and by additionally estimating zenith wet delays for the highly variable wet component. Sometimes, the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) approach leads to negative estimates, which would be equivalent to negative water vapor in the atmosphere and does, of course, not reflect meteorological and physical conditions in a plausible way. To cope with this phenomenon, we introduce an Inequality Constrained Least Squares (ICLS) method from the field of convex optimization and use inequality constraints to force the tropospheric parameters to be non-negative allowing for a more realistic tropospheric parameter estimation in a meteorological sense. Because deficiencies in the a priori hydrostatic modeling are almost fully compensated by the tropospheric estimates, the ICLS approach urgently requires suitable a priori hydrostatic delays. In this paper, we briefly describe the ICLS method and validate its impact with regard to station positions.

Use of Empirical Estimates of Shrinkage in Multiple Regression: A Caution.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kromrey, Jeffrey D.; Hines, Constance V.

1995-01-01

The accuracy of four empirical techniques to estimate shrinkage in multiple regression was studied through Monte Carlo simulation. None of the techniques provided unbiased estimates of the population squared multiple correlation coefficient, but the normalized jackknife and bootstrap techniques demonstrated marginally acceptable performance with…

Time delay and magnification centroid due to gravitational lensing by black holes and naked singularities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Virbhadra, K. S.; Keeton, C. R.; Department of Physics and Astronomy, Rutgers University, 136 Frelinghuysen Road, Piscataway, NJ 08854

We model the massive dark object at the center of the Galaxy as a Schwarzschild black hole as well as Janis-Newman-Winicour naked singularities, characterized by the mass and scalar charge parameters, and study gravitational lensing (particularly time delay, magnification centroid, and total magnification) by them. We find that the lensing features are qualitatively similar (though quantitatively different) for Schwarzschild black holes, weakly naked, and marginally strongly naked singularities. However, the lensing characteristics of strongly naked singularities are qualitatively very different from those due to Schwarzschild black holes. The images produced by Schwarzschild black hole lenses and weakly naked and marginallymore » strongly naked singularity lenses always have positive time delays. On the other hand, strongly naked singularity lenses can give rise to images with positive, zero, or negative time delays. In particular, for a large angular source position the direct image (the outermost image on the same side as the source) due to strongly naked singularity lensing always has a negative time delay. We also found that the scalar field decreases the time delay and increases the total magnification of images; this result could have important implications for cosmology. As the Janis-Newman-Winicour metric also describes the exterior gravitational field of a scalar star, naked singularities as well as scalar star lenses, if these exist in nature, will serve as more efficient cosmic telescopes than regular gravitational lenses.« less

Modeling of Tracer Transport Delays for Improved Quantification of Regional Pulmonary ¹⁸F-FDG Kinetics, Vascular Transit Times, and Perfusion.

PubMed

Wellman, Tyler J; Winkler, Tilo; Vidal Melo, Marcos F

2015-11-01

¹⁸F-FDG-PET is increasingly used to assess pulmonary inflammatory cell activity. However, current models of pulmonary ¹⁸F-FDG kinetics do not account for delays in ¹⁸F-FDG transport between the plasma sampling site and the lungs. We developed a three-compartment model of ¹⁸F-FDG kinetics that includes a delay between the right heart and the local capillary blood pool, and used this model to estimate regional pulmonary perfusion. We acquired dynamic ¹⁸F-FDG scans in 12 mechanically ventilated sheep divided into control and lung injury groups (n = 6 each). The model was fit to tracer kinetics in three isogravitational regions-of-interest to estimate regional lung transport delays and regional perfusion. ¹³NN bolus infusion scans were acquired during a period of apnea to measure regional perfusion using an established reference method. The delayed input function model improved description of ¹⁸F-FDG kinetics (lower Akaike Information Criterion) in 98% of studied regions. Local transport delays ranged from 2.0 to 13.6 s, averaging 6.4 ± 2.9 s, and were highest in non-dependent regions. Estimates of regional perfusion derived from model parameters were highly correlated with perfusion measurements based on ¹³NN-PET (R² = 0.92, p < 0.001). By incorporating local vascular transports delays, this model of pulmonary ¹⁸F-FDG kinetics allows for simultaneous assessment of regional lung perfusion, transit times, and inflammation.

The Delphi Process: Some Assumptions and Some Realities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Waldron, James S.

The effectiveness of the Delphi Technique is evaluated in terms of immediate and delayed controlled information feedback (feedback within 5 seconds as compared with a 24-hour delay); and the relationships that exist among measures of integrative complexity, estimations about the time of occurrence of future events, and time delay between task…

Decisions in Motion: Decision Dynamics during Intertemporal Choice reflect Subjective Evaluation of Delayed Rewards

PubMed Central

O’Hora, Denis; Carey, Rachel; Kervick, Aoife; Crowley, David; Dabrowski, Maciej

2016-01-01

People tend to discount rewards or losses that occur in the future. Such delay discounting has been linked to many behavioral and health problems, since people choose smaller short-term gains over greater long-term gains. We investigated whether the effect of delays on the subjective value of rewards is expressed in how people move when they make choices. Over 600 patrons of the RISK LAB exhibition hosted by the Science Gallery DublinTM played a short computer game in which they used a computer mouse to choose between amounts of money at various delays. Typical discounting effects were observed and decision dynamics indicated that choosing smaller short-term rewards became easier (i.e., shorter response times, tighter trajectories, less vacillation) as the delays until later rewards increased. Based on a sequence of choices, subjective values of delayed outcomes were estimated and decision dynamics during initial choices predicted these values. Decision dynamics are affected by subjective values of available options and thus provide a means to estimate such values. PMID:26867497

Disease Control After Reduced Volume Conformal and Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy for Childhood Craniopharyngioma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Merchant, Thomas E., E-mail: thomas.merchant@stjude.org; Kun, Larry E.; Hua, Chia-Ho

2013-03-15

Purpose: To estimate the rate of disease control after conformal radiation therapy using reduced clinical target volume (CTV) margins and to determine factors that predict for tumor progression. Methods and Materials: Eighty-eight children (median age, 8.5 years; range, 3.2-17.6 years) received conformal or intensity modulated radiation therapy between 1998 and 2009. The study group included those prospectively treated from 1998 to 2003, using a 10-mm CTV, defined as the margin surrounding the solid and cystic tumor targeted to receive the prescription dose of 54 Gy. The CTV margin was subsequently reduced after 2003, yielding 2 groups of patients: those treatedmore » with a CTV margin greater than 5 mm (n=26) and those treated with a CTV margin less than or equal to 5 mm (n=62). Disease progression was estimated on the basis of additional variables including sex, race, extent of resection, tumor interventions, target volume margins, and frequency of weekly surveillance magnetic resonance (MR) imaging during radiation therapy. Median follow-up was 5 years. Results: There was no difference between progression-free survival rates based on CTV margins (>5 mm vs ≤5 mm) at 5 years (88.1% ± 6.3% vs 96.2% ± 4.4% [P=.6386]). There were no differences based on planning target volume (PTV) margins (or combined CTV plus PTV margins). The PTV was systematically reduced from 5 to 3 mm during the time period of the study. Factors predictive of superior progression-free survival included Caucasian race (P=.0175), no requirement for cerebrospinal fluid shunting (P=.0066), and number of surveillance imaging studies during treatment (P=.0216). Patients whose treatment protocol included a higher number of weekly surveillance MR imaging evaluations had a lower rate of tumor progression. Conclusions: These results suggest that targeted volume reductions for radiation therapy using smaller margins are feasible and safe but require careful monitoring. We are currently investigating the differences in outcome based on host factors to explain the results.« less

State-Based Delay Representation and Its Transfer from a Game of Pong to Reaching and Tracking

PubMed Central

Leib, Raz; Pressman, Assaf; Simo, Lucia S.; Karniel, Amir

2017-01-01

Abstract To accurately estimate the state of the body, the nervous system needs to account for delays between signals from different sensory modalities. To investigate how such delays may be represented in the sensorimotor system, we asked human participants to play a virtual pong game in which the movement of the virtual paddle was delayed with respect to their hand movement. We tested the representation of this new mapping between the hand and the delayed paddle by examining transfer of adaptation to blind reaching and blind tracking tasks. These blind tasks enabled to capture the representation in feedforward mechanisms of movement control. A Time Representation of the delay is an estimation of the actual time lag between hand and paddle movements. A State Representation is a representation of delay using current state variables: the distance between the paddle and the ball originating from the delay may be considered as a spatial shift; the low sensitivity in the response of the paddle may be interpreted as a minifying gain; and the lag may be attributed to a mechanical resistance that influences paddle’s movement. We found that the effects of prolonged exposure to the delayed feedback transferred to blind reaching and tracking tasks and caused participants to exhibit hypermetric movements. These results, together with simulations of our representation models, suggest that delay is not represented based on time, but rather as a spatial gain change in visuomotor mapping. PMID:29379875

Risk factors associated with delayed gastric emptying after subtotal gastrectomy with Billroth-I anastomosis using circular stapler for early gastric cancer patients

PubMed Central

Kim, Ki Han; Jung, Ghap Joong

2012-01-01

Purpose Gastric surgery may potentiate delayed gastric emptying. Billroth I gastroduodenostomy using a circular stapler is the most preferable reconstruction method. The purpose of this study is to analyze the risk factors associated with delayed gastric emptying after radical subtotal gastrectomy with Billroth I anastomosis using a stapler for early gastric cancer. Methods Three hundred and seventy-eight patients who underwent circular stapled Billroth I gastroduodenostomy after subtotal gastrectomy due to early gastric cancer were analyzed retrospectively. One hundred and eighty-two patients had Billroth I anastomosis using a 25 mm diameter circular stapler, and 196 patients had anastomosis with a 28 or 29 mm diameter circular stapler. Clinicopathological features and postoperative outcomes were evaluated and compared between the two groups. Delayed gastric emptying was diagnosed by symptoms and simple abdomen X-ray with or without upper gastrointestinal series or endoscopy. Results Postoperative delayed gastric emptying was found in 12 (3.2%) of the 378 patients. Among all the variables, distal margin and circular stapler diameter were significantly different between the cases with delayed gastric emptying and no delayed gastric emptying. There were statistically significant differences in sex, body mass index, comorbidity, complication, and operation type according to circular stapler diameter. In both univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, only the stapler diameter was found to be a significant factor affecting delayed gastric emptying (P = 0.040). Conclusion In this study, the circular stapler diameter was one of the most significant predictable factors of delayed gastric emptying for Billroth I gastroduodenostomy. The use of a 28 or 29 mm diameter circular stapler rather than a 25 mm diameter stapler in stapled gastroduodenostomy for early gastric cancer can reduce postoperative delayed gastric emptying associated with anastomosic stenosis or edema with relative safety. PMID:23166886

Marginal Biotin Deficiency Can Be Induced Experimentally in Humans Using a Cost-Effective Outpatient Design123

PubMed Central

Stratton, Shawna L.; Henrich, Cindy L.; Matthews, Nell I.; Bogusiewicz, Anna; Dawson, Amanda M.; Horvath, Thomas D.; Owen, Suzanne N.; Boysen, Gunnar; Moran, Jeffery H.; Mock, Donald M.

2012-01-01

To date, marginal, asymptomatic biotin deficiency has been successfully induced experimentally by the use of labor-intensive inpatient designs requiring rigorous dietary control. We sought to determine if marginal biotin deficiency could be induced in humans in a less expensive outpatient design incorporating a self-selected, mixed general diet. We sought to examine the efficacy of three outpatient study designs: two based on oral avidin dosing and one based on a diet high in undenatured egg white for a period of 28 d. In study design 1, participants (n = 4; 3 women) received avidin in capsules with a biotin binding capacity of 7 times the estimated dietary biotin intake of a typical self-selected diet. In study design 2, participants (n = 2; 2 women) received double the amount of avidin capsules (14 times the estimated dietary biotin intake). In study design 3, participants (n = 5; 3 women) consumed egg-white beverages containing avidin with a biotin binding capacity of 7 times the estimated dietary biotin intake. Established indices of biotin status [lymphocyte propionyl-CoA carboxylase activity; urinary excretion of 3-hydroxyisovaleric acid, 3-hydroxyisovaleryl carnitine (3HIA-carnitine), and biotin; and plasma concentration of 3HIA-carnitine] indicated that study designs 1 and 2 were not effective in inducing marginal biotin deficiency, but study design 3 was as effective as previous inpatient study designs that induced deficiency by egg-white beverage. Marginal biotin deficiency can be induced experimentally by using a cost-effective outpatient design by avidin delivery in egg-white beverages. This design should be useful to the broader nutritional research community. PMID:22157538

A novel technique for real-time estimation of edge pedestal density gradients via reflectometer time delay data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zeng, L., E-mail: zeng@fusion.gat.com; Doyle, E. J.; Rhodes, T. L.

2016-11-15

A new model-based technique for fast estimation of the pedestal electron density gradient has been developed. The technique uses ordinary mode polarization profile reflectometer time delay data and does not require direct profile inversion. Because of its simple data processing, the technique can be readily implemented via a Field-Programmable Gate Array, so as to provide a real-time density gradient estimate, suitable for use in plasma control systems such as envisioned for ITER, and possibly for DIII-D and Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak. The method is based on a simple edge plasma model with a linear pedestal density gradient and low scrape-off-layermore » density. By measuring reflectometer time delays for three adjacent frequencies, the pedestal density gradient can be estimated analytically via the new approach. Using existing DIII-D profile reflectometer data, the estimated density gradients obtained from the new technique are found to be in good agreement with the actual density gradients for a number of dynamic DIII-D plasma conditions.« less

On-Line Robust Modal Stability Prediction using Wavelet Processing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brenner, Martin J.; Lind, Rick

1998-01-01

Wavelet analysis for filtering and system identification has been used to improve the estimation of aeroservoelastic stability margins. The conservatism of the robust stability margins is reduced with parametric and nonparametric time- frequency analysis of flight data in the model validation process. Nonparametric wavelet processing of data is used to reduce the effects of external disturbances and unmodeled dynamics. Parametric estimates of modal stability are also extracted using the wavelet transform. Computation of robust stability margins for stability boundary prediction depends on uncertainty descriptions derived from the data for model validation. The F-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle aeroservoelastic flight test data demonstrates improved robust stability prediction by extension of the stability boundary beyond the flight regime. Guidelines and computation times are presented to show the efficiency and practical aspects of these procedures for on-line implementation. Feasibility of the method is shown for processing flight data from time- varying nonstationary test points.

Lord's Wald Test for Detecting Dif in Multidimensional Irt Models: A Comparison of Two Estimation Approaches

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Soo; Suh, Youngsuk

2018-01-01

Lord's Wald test for differential item functioning (DIF) has not been studied extensively in the context of the multidimensional item response theory (MIRT) framework. In this article, Lord's Wald test was implemented using two estimation approaches, marginal maximum likelihood estimation and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation, to detect…

Estimation of Handling Qualities Parameters of the Tu-144 Supersonic Transport Aircraft from Flight Test Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curry, Timothy J.; Batterson, James G. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Low order equivalent system (LOES) models for the Tu-144 supersonic transport aircraft were identified from flight test data. The mathematical models were given in terms of transfer functions with a time delay by the military standard MIL-STD-1797A, "Flying Qualities of Piloted Aircraft," and the handling qualities were predicted from the estimated transfer function coefficients. The coefficients and the time delay in the transfer functions were estimated using a nonlinear equation error formulation in the frequency domain. Flight test data from pitch, roll, and yaw frequency sweeps at various flight conditions were used for parameter estimation. Flight test results are presented in terms of the estimated parameter values, their standard errors, and output fits in the time domain. Data from doublet maneuvers at the same flight conditions were used to assess the predictive capabilities of the identified models. The identified transfer function models fit the measured data well and demonstrated good prediction capabilities. The Tu-144 was predicted to be between level 2 and 3 for all longitudinal maneuvers and level I for all lateral maneuvers. High estimates of the equivalent time delay in the transfer function model caused the poor longitudinal rating.

A Space-Time Signal Decomposition Algorithm for Downlink MIMO DS-CDMA Receivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yung-Yi; Fang, Wen-Hsien; Chen, Jiunn-Tsair

We propose a dimension reduction algorithm for the receiver of the downlink of direct-sequence code-division multiple access (DS-CDMA) systems in which both the transmitters and the receivers employ antenna arrays of multiple elements. To estimate the high order channel parameters, we develop a layered architecture using dimension-reduced parameter estimation algorithms to estimate the frequency-selective multipath channels. In the proposed architecture, to exploit the space-time geometric characteristics of multipath channels, spatial beamformers and constrained (or unconstrained) temporal filters are adopted for clustered-multipath grouping and path isolation. In conjunction with the multiple access interference (MAI) suppression techniques, the proposed architecture jointly estimates the direction of arrivals, propagation delays, and fading amplitudes of the downlink fading multipaths. With the outputs of the proposed architecture, the signals of interest can then be naturally detected by using path-wise maximum ratio combining. Compared to the traditional techniques, such as the Joint-Angle-and-Delay-Estimation (JADE) algorithm for DOA-delay joint estimation and the space-time minimum mean square error (ST-MMSE) algorithm for signal detection, computer simulations show that the proposed algorithm substantially mitigate the computational complexity at the expense of only slight performance degradation.

Estimating power capability of aged lithium-ion batteries in presence of communication delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fridholm, Björn; Wik, Torsten; Kuusisto, Hannes; Klintberg, Anton

2018-04-01

Efficient control of electrified powertrains requires accurate estimation of the power capability of the battery for the next few seconds into the future. When implemented in a vehicle, the power estimation is part of a control loop that may contain several networked controllers which introduces time delays that may jeopardize stability. In this article, we present and evaluate an adaptive power estimation method that robustly can handle uncertain health status and time delays. A theoretical analysis shows that stability of the closed loop system can be lost if the resistance of the model is under-estimated. Stability can, however, be restored by filtering the estimated power at the expense of slightly reduced bandwidth of the signal. The adaptive algorithm is experimentally validated in lab tests using an aged lithium-ion cell subject to a high power load profile in temperatures from -20 to +25 °C. The upper voltage limit was set to 4.15 V and the lower voltage limit to 2.6 V, where significant non-linearities are occurring and the validity of the model is limited. After an initial transient when the model parameters are adapted, the prediction accuracy is within ± 2 % of the actually available power.

Spatial Control of Gene Expression by miR319-Regulated TCP Transcription Factors in Leaf Development.

PubMed

Bresso, Edgardo G; Chorostecki, Uciel; Rodriguez, Ramiro E; Palatnik, Javier F; Schommer, Carla

2018-02-01

The characteristic leaf shapes we see in all plants are in good part the outcome of the combined action of several transcription factor networks that translate into cell division activity during the early development of the organ. We show here that wild-type leaves have distinct transcriptomic profiles in center and marginal regions. Certain transcripts are enriched in margins, including those of CINCINNATA -like TCPs ( TEOSINTE BRANCHED, CYCLOIDEA and PCF1/2 ) and members of the NGATHA and STYLISH gene families. We study in detail the contribution of microRNA319 (miR319)-regulated TCP transcription factors to the development of the center and marginal regions of Arabidopsis ( Arabidopsis thaliana ) leaves. We compare in molecular analyses the wild type, the tcp2 tcp4 mutant that has enlarged flat leaves, and the tcp2 tcp3 tcp4 tcp10 mutant with strongly crinkled leaves. The different leaf domains of the tcp mutants show changed expression patterns for many photosynthesis-related genes, indicating delayed differentiation, especially in the marginal parts of the organ. At the same time, we found an up-regulation of cyclin genes and other genes that are known to participate in cell division, specifically in the marginal regions of tcp2 tcp3 tcp4 tcp10 Using GUS reporter constructs, we confirmed extended mitotic activity in the tcp2 tcp3 tcp4 tcp10 leaf, which persisted in small defined foci in the margins when the mitotic activity had already ceased in wild-type leaves. Our results describe the role of miR319-regulated TCP transcription factors in the coordination of activities in different leaf domains during organ development. © 2018 American Society of Plant Biologists. All Rights Reserved.

Crash testing difference-smoothing algorithm on a large sample of simulated light curves from TDC1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rathna Kumar, S.

2017-09-01

In this work, we propose refinements to the difference-smoothing algorithm for the measurement of time delay from the light curves of the images of a gravitationally lensed quasar. The refinements mainly consist of a more pragmatic approach to choose the smoothing time-scale free parameter, generation of more realistic synthetic light curves for the estimation of time delay uncertainty and using a plot of normalized χ2 computed over a wide range of trial time delay values to assess the reliability of a measured time delay and also for identifying instances of catastrophic failure. We rigorously tested the difference-smoothing algorithm on a large sample of more than thousand pairs of simulated light curves having known true time delays between them from the two most difficult 'rungs' - rung3 and rung4 - of the first edition of Strong Lens Time Delay Challenge (TDC1) and found an inherent tendency of the algorithm to measure the magnitude of time delay to be higher than the true value of time delay. However, we find that this systematic bias is eliminated by applying a correction to each measured time delay according to the magnitude and sign of the systematic error inferred by applying the time delay estimator on synthetic light curves simulating the measured time delay. Following these refinements, the TDC performance metrics for the difference-smoothing algorithm are found to be competitive with those of the best performing submissions of TDC1 for both the tested 'rungs'. The MATLAB codes used in this work and the detailed results are made publicly available.

Typical teleoperator time delay profiles, phase 2. [remotely controlled manipulator arms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wetherington, R. D.; Walsh, J. R.

1974-01-01

The results of the second phase of a study on time delays in communications systems applicable to the teleoperator program are presented. Estimates of the maximum time delays that will be encountered and presents time delay profiles are given for (1) ground control to teleoperator in low earth orbit, (2) ground control to teleoperator in geosynchronous orbit, and (3) low earth orbit control to teleoperator in low earth orbit.

Benefit Estimates of Terminal Area Productivity Program Technologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hemm, Robert; Shapiro, Gerald; Lee, David; Gribko, Joana; Glaser, Bonnie

1999-01-01

This report documents benefit analyses for the NASA Terminal Area Technology (TAP) technology programs. Benefits are based on reductions in arrival delays at ten major airports over the 10 years from 2006 through 2015. Detailed analytic airport capacity and delay models were constructed to produce the estimates. The goal of TAP is enable good weather operations tempos in all weather conditions. The TAP program includes technologies to measure and predict runway occupancy times, reduce runway occupancy times in bad weather, accurately predict wake vortex hazards, and couple controller automation with aircraft flight management systems. The report presents and discusses the estimate results and describes the models. Three appendixes document the model algorithms and discuss the input parameters selected for the TAP technologies. The fourth appendix is the user's guide for the models. The results indicate that the combined benefits for all TAP technologies at all 10 airports range from $550 to $650 million per year (in constant 1997 dollars). Additional benefits will accrue from reductions in departure delays. Departure delay benefits are calculated by the current models.

Q-adjusting technique applied to vertical deflections estimation in a single-axis rotation INS/GPS integrated system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jing; Wang, Xingshu; Wang, Jun; Dai, Dongkai; Xiong, Hao

2016-10-01

Former studies have proved that the attitude error in a single-axis rotation INS/GPS integrated system tracks the high frequency component of the deflections of the vertical (DOV) with a fixed delay and tracking error. This paper analyses the influence of the nominal process noise covariance matrix Q on the tracking error as well as the response delay, and proposed a Q-adjusting technique to obtain the attitude error which can track the DOV better. Simulation results show that different settings of Q lead to different response delay and tracking error; there exists optimal Q which leads to a minimum tracking error and a comparatively short response delay; for systems with different accuracy, different Q-adjusting strategy should be adopted. In this way, the DOV estimation accuracy of using the attitude error as the observation can be improved. According to the simulation results, the DOV estimation accuracy after using the Q-adjusting technique is improved by approximate 23% and 33% respectively compared to that of the Earth Model EGM2008 and the direct attitude difference method.

A new algorithm for microwave delay estimation from water vapor radiometer data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, S. E.

1986-01-01

A new algorithm has been developed for the estimation of tropospheric microwave path delays from water vapor radiometer (WVR) data, which does not require site and weather dependent empirical parameters to produce high accuracy. Instead of taking the conventional linear approach, the new algorithm first uses the observables with an emission model to determine an approximate form of the vertical water vapor distribution which is then explicitly integrated to estimate wet path delays, in a second step. The intrinsic accuracy of this algorithm has been examined for two channel WVR data using path delays and stimulated observables computed from archived radiosonde data. It is found that annual RMS errors for a wide range of sites are in the range from 1.3 mm to 2.3 mm, in the absence of clouds. This is comparable to the best overall accuracy obtainable from conventional linear algorithms, which must be tailored to site and weather conditions using large radiosonde data bases. The new algorithm's accuracy and flexibility are indications that it may be a good candidate for almost all WVR data interpretation.

Marginal revenue and length of stay in inpatient psychiatry.

PubMed

Pletscher, Mark

2016-09-01

This study examines the changes in marginal revenue during psychiatric inpatient stays in a large Swiss psychiatric hospital after the introduction of a mixed reimbursement system with tariff rates that vary over length of stay. A discrete time duration model with a difference-in-difference specification and time-varying coefficients is estimated to assess variations in policy effects over length of stay. Among patients whose costs are fully reimbursed by the mixed scheme, the model demonstrates a significant effect of marginal revenue on length of stay. No significant policy effects are found among patients for whom only health insurance rates are delivered as mixed tariffs and government contributions are made retrospectively. The results indicate that marginal revenue can affect length of stay in inpatient psychiatry facilities, but that the reduction in marginal revenue must be sufficiently large.

A corrected formulation for marginal inference derived from two-part mixed models for longitudinal semi-continuous data.

PubMed

Tom, Brian Dm; Su, Li; Farewell, Vernon T

2016-10-01

For semi-continuous data which are a mixture of true zeros and continuously distributed positive values, the use of two-part mixed models provides a convenient modelling framework. However, deriving population-averaged (marginal) effects from such models is not always straightforward. Su et al. presented a model that provided convenient estimation of marginal effects for the logistic component of the two-part model but the specification of marginal effects for the continuous part of the model presented in that paper was based on an incorrect formulation. We present a corrected formulation and additionally explore the use of the two-part model for inferences on the overall marginal mean, which may be of more practical relevance in our application and more generally. © The Author(s) 2013.

Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter Operational Aerobraking Phase Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prince, Jill L.; Striepe, Scott A.

2007-01-01

The Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) was inserted into orbit around Mars on March 10, 2005. After a brief delay, it began the process of aerobraking - using the atmospheric drag on the vehicle to reduce orbital period. The aerobraking phase lasted approximately 5 months (April 4 to August 30, 2006), during which teams from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Lockheed Martin Space Systems Corporation, and NASA Langley Research Center worked together to monitor and maneuver the spacecraft such that thermal margin on the solar arrays was maintained while schedule margin was upheld to provide a final local mean solar time (LMST) at ascending node of 3:00pm on the final aerobraking orbit. This paper will focus on the contribution of the flight mechanics team at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) during the aerobraking phase of the MRO mission.

Clinical and economic analysis of delayed administration of antithymocyte globulin for induction therapy in kidney transplantation.

PubMed

McGillicuddy, John W; Taber, David J; Pilch, Nicole A; Kohout, Ryan K; Bratton, Charles F; Chavin, Kenneth D; Baliga, Prabhakar K

2013-03-01

The increasing number of marginal deceased kidney donors and an aging recipient population, prolonged hospitalization, and increased costs have destabilized the economic viability of kidney transplants. To determine if a delay in the administration of the day-of-discharge dose of rabbit antithymocyte globulin would result in equivalent clinical outcomes with cost savings. Single-center, prospective, observational before-and-after study of adult kidney transplant recipients who received induction with rabbit antithymocyte globulin.Intervention-Patients who received a transplant between June 2006 and February 2009 and received rabbit antithymocyte globulin served as the control group. Patients who received a transplant between March 2009 and August 2010 and received rabbit antithymocyte globulin had the day-of-discharge dose delayed to the following day and administered in the clinic. A total of 231 patients (146 in the control group, 85 in the study group) were included. Baseline demographic and clinical characteristics were similar in the 2 groups. Patients who had delayed administration of rabbit antithymocyte globulin had shorter stays (3.9 vs 3.1 days, P< .001) and reduced inpatient costs for rabbit antithymocyte globulin (mean $860/patient); these changes were achieved without affecting acute rejection rates (5% vs 5%, P> .99) or readmission rates. In conclusion, delayed inpatient administration of rabbit antithymocyte globulin provided identical clinical outcomes while helping to reduce inpatient costs and increase timely discharges.

Tuberculosis-related knowledge is associated with patient outcomes in shantytown residents; results from a cohort study, Peru.

PubMed

Westerlund, Emma E; Tovar, Marco A; Lönnermark, Elisabet; Montoya, Rosario; Evans, Carlton A

2015-09-01

Tuberculosis is frequent among poor and marginalized people whose limited tuberculosis-related knowledge may impair healthcare access. We characterised tuberculosis-related knowledge and associations with delayed treatment and treatment outcome. Tuberculosis patients (n = 943), people being tested for suspected tuberculosis (n = 2020), and randomly selected healthy controls (n = 476) in 16 periurban shantytowns were interviewed characterizing: socio-demographic factors; tuberculosis risk-factors; and patients' treatment delay. Principle component analysis was used to generate a tuberculosis-related knowledge score. Patients were followed-up for median 7.7 years. Factors associated with tuberculosis treatment delay, treatment outcome and tuberculosis recurrence were assessed using linear, logistic and Cox regression. Tuberculosis-related knowledge was poor, especially in older people who had not completed schooling and had never been diagnosed with tuberculosis. Tuberculosis treatment delay was median 60 days and was more delayed for patients who were poorer, older, had more severe tuberculosis and in only unadjusted analysis with incomplete schooling and low tuberculosis-related knowledge (all p ≤ 0.03). Lower than median tuberculosis-related knowledge was associated with tuberculosis recurrence (unadjusted hazard ratio = 2.1, p = 0.008), and this association was independent of co-morbidities, disease severity and demographic factors (multiple regression adjusted hazard ratio = 2.6, p = 0.008). Low tuberculosis-related knowledge independently predicted tuberculosis recurrence. Thus health education may improve tuberculosis prognosis. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Further development of the attitude difference method for estimating deflections of the vertical in real time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jing; Zhou, Zebo; Li, Yong; Rizos, Chris; Wang, Xingshu

2016-07-01

An improvement of the attitude difference method (ADM) to estimate deflections of the vertical (DOV) in real time is described in this paper. The ADM without offline processing estimates the DOV with a limited accuracy due to the response delay. The proposed model selection-based self-adaptive delay feedback (SDF) method takes the results of the ADM as the a priori information, then uses fitting and extrapolation to estimate the DOV at the current epoch. The active region selection factor F th is used to take full advantage of the Earth model EGM2008 and the SDF with different DOV exhibitions. The factors which affect the DOV estimation accuracy are analyzed and modeled. An external observation which is specified by the velocity difference between the global navigation satellite system (GNSS) and the inertial navigation system (INS) with DOV compensated is used to select the optimal model. The response delay induced by the weak observability of an integrated INS/GNSS to the violent DOV disturbances in the ADM is compensated. The DOV estimation accuracy of the SDF method is improved by approximately 40% and 50% respectively compared to that of the EGM2008 and the ADM. With an increase in GNSS accuracy, the DOV estimation accuracy could improve further.

Time-Varying Delay Estimation Applied to the Surface Electromyography Signals Using the Parametric Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luu, Gia Thien; Boualem, Abdelbassit; Duy, Tran Trung; Ravier, Philippe; Butteli, Olivier

Muscle Fiber Conduction Velocity (MFCV) can be calculated from the time delay between the surface electromyographic (sEMG) signals recorded by electrodes aligned with the fiber direction. In order to take into account the non-stationarity during the dynamic contraction (the most daily life situation) of the data, the developed methods have to consider that the MFCV changes over time, which induces time-varying delays and the data is non-stationary (change of Power Spectral Density (PSD)). In this paper, the problem of TVD estimation is considered using a parametric method. First, the polynomial model of TVD has been proposed. Then, the TVD model parameters are estimated by using a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) strategy solved by a deterministic optimization technique (Newton) and stochastic optimization technique, called simulated annealing (SA). The performance of the two techniques is also compared. We also derive two appropriate Cramer-Rao Lower Bounds (CRLB) for the estimated TVD model parameters and for the TVD waveforms. Monte-Carlo simulation results show that the estimation of both the model parameters and the TVD function is unbiased and that the variance obtained is close to the derived CRBs. A comparison with non-parametric approaches of the TVD estimation is also presented and shows the superiority of the method proposed.

Public Key Infrastructure Increment 2 (PKI Inc 2)

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-01

DoD - Department of Defense DoDAF - DoD Architecture Framework FD - Full Deployment FDD - Full Deployment Decision FY - Fiscal Year IA...experienced due to a delay in achieving the FDD . The Critical Change Report was provided to Congress on July 11, 2014. Firm, Fixed-Price Feasibility...to a delay in achieving the FDD . To support the Critical Change Report, the NSA Cost Estimating organization prepared a cost estimate that was

Adaptive Kalman filter based on variance component estimation for the prediction of ionospheric delay in aiding the cycle slip repair of GNSS triple-frequency signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Guobin; Xu, Tianhe; Yao, Yifei; Wang, Qianxin

2018-01-01

In order to incorporate the time smoothness of ionospheric delay to aid the cycle slip detection, an adaptive Kalman filter is developed based on variance component estimation. The correlations between measurements at neighboring epochs are fully considered in developing a filtering algorithm for colored measurement noise. Within this filtering framework, epoch-differenced ionospheric delays are predicted. Using this prediction, the potential cycle slips are repaired for triple-frequency signals of global navigation satellite systems. Cycle slips are repaired in a stepwise manner; i.e., for two extra wide lane combinations firstly and then for the third frequency. In the estimation for the third frequency, a stochastic model is followed in which the correlations between the ionospheric delay prediction errors and the errors in the epoch-differenced phase measurements are considered. The implementing details of the proposed method are tabulated. A real BeiDou Navigation Satellite System data set is used to check the performance of the proposed method. Most cycle slips, no matter trivial or nontrivial, can be estimated in float values with satisfactorily high accuracy and their integer values can hence be correctly obtained by simple rounding. To be more specific, all manually introduced nontrivial cycle slips are correctly repaired.

Speed and Delay Prediction Models for Planning Applications

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-01-01

Estimation of vehicle speed and delay is fundamental to many forms of : transportation planning analyses including air quality, long-range travel : forecasting, major investment studies, and congestion management systems. : However, existing planning...

Delayed Hospital Discharges of Older Patients: A Systematic Review on Prevalence and Costs.

PubMed

Landeiro, Filipa; Roberts, Kenny; Gray, Alastair Mcintosh; Leal, José

2017-05-23

To determine the prevalence of delayed discharges of elderly inpatients and associated costs. We searched Medline, Embase, Global Health, CAB Abstracts, Econlit, Web of Knowledge, EBSCO - CINAHL, The Cochrane Library, Health Management Information Consortium, and SCIE - Social Care Online for evidence published between 1990 and 2015 on number of days or proportion of delayed discharges for elderly inpatients in acute hospitals. Descriptive and regression analyses were conducted. Data on proportions of delayed discharges were pooled using a random effects logistic model and the association of relevant factors was assessed. Mean costs of delayed discharge were calculated in USD adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). Of 64 studies included, 52 (81.3%) reported delayed discharges as proportions of total hospital stay and 9 (14.1%) estimated the respective costs for these delays. Proportions of delayed discharges varied widely, from 1.6% to 91.3% with a weighted mean of 22.8%. This variation was also seen in studies from the same country, for example, in the United Kingdom, they ranged between 1.6% and 60.0%. No factor was found to be significantly associated with delays. The mean costs of delayed discharge also varied widely (between 142 and 31,935 USD PPP adjusted), reflecting the variability in mean days of delay per patient. Delayed discharges occur in most countries and the associated costs are significant. However, the variability in prevalence of delayed discharges and available data on costs limit our knowledge of the full impact of delayed discharges. A standardization of methods is necessary to allow comparisons to be made, and additional studies are required-preferably by disease area-to determine the postdischarge needs of specific patient groups and the estimated costs of delays. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Force feedback delay affects perception of stiffness but not action, and the effect depends on the hand used but not on the handedness.

PubMed

Leib, Raz; Rubin, Inbar; Nisky, Ilana

2018-05-16

Interaction with an object often requires the estimation of its mechanical properties. We examined whether the hand that is used to interact with the object and their handedness affected people's estimation of these properties using stiffness estimation as a test case. We recorded participants' responses on a stiffness discrimination of a virtual elastic force field and the grip force applied on the robotic device during the interaction. In half of the trials, the robotic device delayed the participants' force feedback. Consistent with previous studies, delayed force feedback biased the perceived stiffness of the force field. Interestingly, in both left-handed and right-handed participants, for the delayed force field, there was even less perceived stiffness when participants used their left hand than their right hand. This result supports the idea that haptic processing is affected by laterality in the brain, not by handedness. Consistent with previous studies, participants adjusted their applied grip force according to the correct size and timing of the load force regardless of the hand that was used, the handedness, or the delay. This suggests that in all these conditions, participants were able to form an accurate internal representation of the anticipated trajectory of the load force (size and timing) and that this representation was used for accurate control of grip force independently of the perceptual bias. Thus, these results provide additional evidence for the dissociation between action and perception in the processing of delayed information.

Delay correction model for estimating bus emissions at signalized intersections based on vehicle specific power distributions.

PubMed

Song, Guohua; Zhou, Xixi; Yu, Lei

2015-05-01

The intersection is one of the biggest emission points for buses and also the high exposure site for people. Several traffic performance indexes have been developed and widely used for intersection evaluations. However, few studies have focused on the relationship between these indexes and emissions at intersections. This paper intends to propose a model that relates emissions to the two commonly used measures of effectiveness (i.e. delay time and number of stops) by using bus activity data and emission data at intersections. First, with a large number of field instantaneous emission data and corresponding activity data collected by the Portable Emission Measurement System (PEMS), emission rates are derived for different vehicle specific power (VSP) bins. Then, 2002 sets of trajectory data, an equivalent of about 140,000 sets of second-by-second activity data, are obtained from Global Position Systems (GPSs)-equipped diesel buses in Beijing. The delay and the emission factors of each trajectory are estimated. Then, by using baseline emission factors for two types of intersections, e.g. the Arterial @ Arterial Intersection and the Arterial @ Collector, delay correction factors are calculated for the two types of intersections at different congestion levels. Finally, delay correction models are established for adjusting emission factors for each type of intersections and different numbers of stops. A comparative analysis between estimated and field emission factors demonstrates that the delay correction model is reliable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Application of a Delay-difference model for the stock assessment of southern Atlantic albacore ( Thunnus alalunga)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kui; Liu, Qun; Kalhoro, Muhsan Ali

2015-06-01

Delay-difference models are intermediate between simple surplus-production models and complicated age-structured models. Such intermediate models are more efficient and require less data than age-structured models. In this study, a delay-difference model was applied to fit catch and catch per unit effort (CPUE) data (1975-2011) of the southern Atlantic albacore ( Thunnus alalunga) stock. The proposed delay-difference model captures annual fluctuations in predicted CPUE data better than Fox model. In a Monte Carlo simulation, white noises (CVs) were superimposed on the observed CPUE data at four levels. Relative estimate error was then calculated to compare the estimated results with the true values of parameters α and β in Ricker stock-recruitment model and the catchability coefficient q. a is more sensitive to CV than β and q. We also calculated an 80% percentile confidence interval of the maximum sustainable yield (MSY, 21756 t to 23408 t; median 22490 t) with the delay-difference model. The yield of the southern Atlantic albacore stock in 2011 was 24122 t, and the estimated ratios of catch against MSY for the past seven years were approximately 1.0. We suggest that care should be taken to protect the albacore fishery in the southern Atlantic Ocean. The proposed delay-difference model provides a good fit to the data of southern Atlantic albacore stock and may be a useful choice for the assessment of regional albacore stock.

Independent Predictors of Prognosis Based on Oral Cavity Squamous Cell Carcinoma Surgical Margins.

PubMed

Buchakjian, Marisa R; Ginader, Timothy; Tasche, Kendall K; Pagedar, Nitin A; Smith, Brian J; Sperry, Steven M

2018-05-01

Objective To conduct a multivariate analysis of a large cohort of oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC) cases for independent predictors of local recurrence (LR) and overall survival (OS), with emphasis on the relationship between (1) prognosis and (2) main specimen permanent margins and intraoperative tumor bed frozen margins. Study Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting Tertiary academic head and neck cancer program. Subjects and Methods This study included 426 patients treated with OCSCC resection between 2005 and 2014 at University of Iowa Hospitals and Clinics. Patients underwent excision of OCSCC with intraoperative tumor bed frozen margin sampling and main specimen permanent margin assessment. Multivariate analysis of the data set to predict LR and OS was performed. Results Independent predictors of LR included nodal involvement, histologic grade, and main specimen permanent margin status. Specifically, the presence of a positive margin (odds ratio, 6.21; 95% CI, 3.3-11.9) or <1-mm/carcinoma in situ margin (odds ratio, 2.41; 95% CI, 1.19-4.87) on the main specimen was an independent predictor of LR, whereas intraoperative tumor bed margins were not predictive of LR on multivariate analysis. Similarly, independent predictors of OS on multivariate analysis included nodal involvement, extracapsular extension, and a positive main specimen margin. Tumor bed margins did not independently predict OS. Conclusion The main specimen margin is a strong independent predictor of LR and OS on multivariate analysis. Intraoperative tumor bed frozen margins do not independently predict prognosis. We conclude that emphasis should be placed on evaluating the main specimen margins when estimating prognosis after OCSCC resection.

Time-delayed chameleon: Analysis, synchronization and FPGA implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajagopal, Karthikeyan; Jafari, Sajad; Laarem, Guessas

2017-12-01

In this paper we report a time-delayed chameleon-like chaotic system which can belong to different families of chaotic attractors depending on the choices of parameters. Such a characteristic of self-excited and hidden chaotic flows in a simple 3D system with time delay has not been reported earlier. Dynamic analysis of the proposed time-delayed systems are analysed in time-delay space and parameter space. A novel adaptive modified functional projective lag synchronization algorithm is derived for synchronizing identical time-delayed chameleon systems with uncertain parameters. The proposed time-delayed systems and the synchronization algorithm with controllers and parameter estimates are then implemented in FPGA using hardware-software co-simulation and the results are presented.

A Twin Study of Spatial and Non-Spatial Delayed Response Performance in Middle Age

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kremen, William S.; Mai, Tuan; Panizzon, Matthew S.; Franz, Carol E.; Blankfeld, Howard M.; Xian, Hong; Eisen, Seth A.; Tsuang, Ming T.; Lyons, Michael J.

2011-01-01

Delayed alternation and object alternation are classic spatial and non-spatial delayed response tasks. We tested 632 middle-aged male veteran twins on variants of these tasks in order to compare test difficulty, measure their inter-correlation, test order effects, and estimate heritabilities (proportion of observed variance due to genetic…

Facing the Recession: How Did Safety-Net Hospitals Fare Financially Compared with Their Peers?

PubMed Central

Reiter, Kristin L; Jiang, H Joanna; Wang, Jia

2014-01-01

Objective To examine the effect of the recession on the financial performance of safety-net versus non-safety-net hospitals. Data Sources/Study Setting Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Hospital Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases, Medicare Cost Reports, American Hospital Association Annual Survey, InterStudy, and Area Health Resource File. Study Design Retrospective, longitudinal panel of hospitals, 2007–2011. Safety-net hospitals were identified using percentage of patients who were Medicaid or uninsured. Generalized estimating equations were used to estimate average effects of the recession on hospital operating and total margins, revenues and expenses in each year, 2008–2011, comparing safety-net with non-safety-net hospitals. Data Collection/Extraction Methods 1,453 urban, nonfederal, general acute hospitals in 32 states with complete data. Principal Findings Safety-net hospitals, as identified in 2007, had lower operating and total margins. The gap in operating margin between safety-net and non-safety-net hospitals was sustained throughout the recession; however, total margin was more negatively affected for non-safety-net hospitals in 2008. Higher percentages of Medicaid and uninsured patients were associated with lower revenue in private hospitals in all years, and lower revenue and expenses in public hospitals in 2011. Conclusions Safety-net hospitals may not be disproportionately vulnerable to macro-economic fluctuations, but their significantly lower margins leave less financial cushion to weather sustained financial pressure. PMID:25220012

A weighted belief-propagation algorithm for estimating volume-related properties of random polytopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Font-Clos, Francesc; Massucci, Francesco Alessandro; Pérez Castillo, Isaac

2012-11-01

In this work we introduce a novel weighted message-passing algorithm based on the cavity method for estimating volume-related properties of random polytopes, properties which are relevant in various research fields ranging from metabolic networks, to neural networks, to compressed sensing. We propose, as opposed to adopting the usual approach consisting in approximating the real-valued cavity marginal distributions by a few parameters, using an algorithm to faithfully represent the entire marginal distribution. We explain various alternatives for implementing the algorithm and benchmarking the theoretical findings by showing concrete applications to random polytopes. The results obtained with our approach are found to be in very good agreement with the estimates produced by the Hit-and-Run algorithm, known to produce uniform sampling.

Early versus delayed loading of mandibular implant-supported overdentures: 5-year results.

PubMed

Turkyilmaz, Ilser; Tözüm, Tolga F; Tumer, Celal

2010-05-01

Because of poor retention of complete removable dentures for edentulous patients, implant-supported mandibular overdentures have lately become a popular alternative for them. The aims of this prospective study were to evaluate treatment outcomes of mandibular overdentures supported by two unsplinted early-loaded implants and compare these results with those for delayed-loaded implants. A total of 26 edentulous patients were treated with two unsplinted implants supporting a mandibular overdenture. All implants were placed in the canine regions of each mandible according to the one-stage surgical protocol. There were two groups: test group, in which the overdenture was connected 1 week after surgery, and control group, in which the overdenture was connected 3 months after surgery. Standardized clinical and radiographic parameters were recorded at surgery, and after 3, 6, 12, and 18 months, and 2, 3, 4, and 5 years. No implants were lost, and 0.93 +/- 0.3 mm marginal bone resorption was noted for all implants after 5 years. Clinical implant stability measurements, clinical peri-implant parameters, and marginal bone resorptions showed no statistically significant differences between the two groups over 5 years. The results of this prospective clinical study suggest that there is no significant difference in the clinical and radiographic state of patients treated with implant supported mandibular overdentures loaded either 1 week or 3 months after surgery.

A quantitative analysis of transtensional margin width

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeanniot, Ludovic; Buiter, Susanne J. H.

2018-06-01

Continental rifted margins show variations between a few hundred to almost a thousand kilometres in their conjugated widths from the relatively undisturbed continent to the oceanic crust. Analogue and numerical modelling results suggest that the conjugated width of rifted margins may have a relationship to their obliquity of divergence, with narrower margins occurring for higher obliquity. We here test this prediction by analysing the obliquity and rift width for 26 segments of transtensional conjugate rifted margins in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. We use the plate reconstruction software GPlates (http://www.gplates.org) for different plate rotation models to estimate the direction and magnitude of rifting from the initial phases of continental rifting until breakup. Our rift width corresponds to the distance between the onshore maximum topography and the last identified continental crust. We find a weak positive correlation between the obliquity of rifting and rift width. Highly oblique margins are narrower than orthogonal margins, as expected from analogue and numerical models. We find no relationships between rift obliquities and rift duration nor the presence or absence of Large Igneous Provinces (LIPs).

Evoked Potentials and Memory/Cognition Tests Validate Brain Atrophy as Measured by 3T MRI (NeuroQuant) in Cognitively Impaired Patients.

PubMed

Braverman, Eric R; Blum, Kenneth; Hussman, Karl L; Han, David; Dushaj, Kristina; Li, Mona; Marin, Gabriela; Badgaiyan, Rajendra D; Smayda, Richard; Gold, Mark S

2015-01-01

To our knowledge, this is the largest study evaluating relationships between 3T Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) and P300 and memory/cognitive tests in the literature. The 3T MRI using NeuroQuant has an increased resolution 15 times that of 1.5T MRI. Utilizing NeuroQuant 3T MRI as a diagnostic tool in primary care, subjects (N=169; 19-90 years) displayed increased areas of anatomical atrophy: 34.62% hippocampal atrophy (N=54), 57.14% central atrophy (N=88), and 44.52% temporal atrophy (N=69). A majority of these patients exhibited overlap in measured areas of atrophy and were cognitively impaired. These results positively correlated with decreased P300 values and WMS-III (WMS-III) scores differentially across various brain loci. Delayed latency (p=0.0740) was marginally associated with temporal atrophy; reduced fractional anisotropy (FA) in frontal lobes correlated with aging, delayed P300 latency, and decreased visual and working memory (p=0.0115). Aging and delayed P300 latency correlated with lower FA. The correlation between working memory and reduced FA in frontal lobes is marginally significant (p=0.0787). In the centrum semiovale (CS), reduced FA correlated with visual memory (p=0.0622). Lower demyelination correlated with higher P300 amplitude (p=0.0002). Compared to males, females have higher demyelination (p=0.0064). Along these lines, the higher the P300 amplitude, the lower the bilateral atrophy (p=0.0165). Hippocampal atrophy correlated with increased auditory memory and gender, especially in males (p=0.0087). In considering temporal lobe atrophy correlations: delayed P300 latency and high temporal atrophy (p=0.0740); high auditory memory and low temporal atrophy (p=0.0417); and high working memory and low temporal atrophy (p=0.0166). Central atrophy correlated with aging and immediate memory (p=0.0294): the higher the immediate memory, the lower the central atrophy. Generally, the validation of brain atrophy by P300 and WMS-III could lead to cost-effective methods utilizable in primary care medicine following further confirmation.

Evoked Potentials and Memory/Cognition Tests Validate Brain Atrophy as Measured by 3T MRI (NeuroQuant) in Cognitively Impaired Patients

PubMed Central

Braverman, Eric R.; Blum, Kenneth; Hussman, Karl L.; Han, David; Dushaj, Kristina; Li, Mona; Marin, Gabriela; Badgaiyan, Rajendra D.; Smayda, Richard; Gold, Mark S.

2015-01-01

To our knowledge, this is the largest study evaluating relationships between 3T Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) and P300 and memory/cognitive tests in the literature. The 3T MRI using NeuroQuant has an increased resolution 15 times that of 1.5T MRI. Utilizing NeuroQuant 3T MRI as a diagnostic tool in primary care, subjects (N=169; 19–90 years) displayed increased areas of anatomical atrophy: 34.62% hippocampal atrophy (N=54), 57.14% central atrophy (N=88), and 44.52% temporal atrophy (N=69). A majority of these patients exhibited overlap in measured areas of atrophy and were cognitively impaired. These results positively correlated with decreased P300 values and WMS-III (WMS-III) scores differentially across various brain loci. Delayed latency (p=0.0740) was marginally associated with temporal atrophy; reduced fractional anisotropy (FA) in frontal lobes correlated with aging, delayed P300 latency, and decreased visual and working memory (p=0.0115). Aging and delayed P300 latency correlated with lower FA. The correlation between working memory and reduced FA in frontal lobes is marginally significant (p=0.0787). In the centrum semiovale (CS), reduced FA correlated with visual memory (p=0.0622). Lower demyelination correlated with higher P300 amplitude (p=0.0002). Compared to males, females have higher demyelination (p=0.0064). Along these lines, the higher the P300 amplitude, the lower the bilateral atrophy (p=0.0165). Hippocampal atrophy correlated with increased auditory memory and gender, especially in males (p=0.0087). In considering temporal lobe atrophy correlations: delayed P300 latency and high temporal atrophy (p=0.0740); high auditory memory and low temporal atrophy (p=0.0417); and high working memory and low temporal atrophy (p=0.0166). Central atrophy correlated with aging and immediate memory (p=0.0294): the higher the immediate memory, the lower the central atrophy. Generally, the validation of brain atrophy by P300 and WMS-III could lead to cost-effective methods utilizable in primary care medicine following further confirmation. PMID:26244349

Estimation of Contextual Effects through Nonlinear Multilevel Latent Variable Modeling with a Metropolis-Hastings Robbins-Monro Algorithm

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, Ji Seung; Cai, Li

2014-01-01

The main purpose of this study is to improve estimation efficiency in obtaining maximum marginal likelihood estimates of contextual effects in the framework of nonlinear multilevel latent variable model by adopting the Metropolis-Hastings Robbins-Monro algorithm (MH-RM). Results indicate that the MH-RM algorithm can produce estimates and standard…

Estimation of a Ramsay-Curve Item Response Theory Model by the Metropolis-Hastings Robbins-Monro Algorithm. CRESST Report 834

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Monroe, Scott; Cai, Li

2013-01-01

In Ramsay curve item response theory (RC-IRT, Woods & Thissen, 2006) modeling, the shape of the latent trait distribution is estimated simultaneously with the item parameters. In its original implementation, RC-IRT is estimated via Bock and Aitkin's (1981) EM algorithm, which yields maximum marginal likelihood estimates. This method, however,…

Estimation of a Ramsay-Curve Item Response Theory Model by the Metropolis-Hastings Robbins-Monro Algorithm

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Monroe, Scott; Cai, Li

2014-01-01

In Ramsay curve item response theory (RC-IRT) modeling, the shape of the latent trait distribution is estimated simultaneously with the item parameters. In its original implementation, RC-IRT is estimated via Bock and Aitkin's EM algorithm, which yields maximum marginal likelihood estimates. This method, however, does not produce the…

Estimating the effect of hospital closure on areawide inpatient hospital costs: a preliminary model and application.

PubMed Central

Shepard, D S

1983-01-01

A preliminary model is developed for estimating the extent of savings, if any, likely to result from discontinuing a specific inpatient service. By examining the sources of referral to the discontinued service, the model estimates potential demand and how cases will be redistributed among remaining hospitals. This redistribution determines average cost per day in hospitals that receive these cases, relative to average cost per day of the discontinued service. The outflow rate, which measures the proportion of cases not absorbed in other acute care hospitals, is estimated as 30 percent for the average discontinuation. The marginal cost ratio, which relates marginal costs of cases absorbed in surrounding hospitals to the average costs in those hospitals, is estimated as 87 percent in the base case. The model was applied to the discontinuation of all inpatient services in the 75-bed Chelsea Memorial Hospital, near Boston, Massachusetts, using 1976 data. As the precise value of key parameters is uncertain, sensitivity analysis was used to explore a range of values. The most likely result is a small increase ($120,000) in the area's annual inpatient hospital costs, because many patients are referred to more costly teaching hospitals. A similar situation may arise with other urban closures. For service discontinuations to generate savings, recipient hospitals must be low in costs, the outflow rate must be large, and the marginal cost ratio must be low. PMID:6668181

Average years of life lost due to breast and cervical cancer and the association with the marginalization index in Mexico in 2000 and 2010.

PubMed

Cervantes, Claudio Alberto Dávila; Botero, Marcela Agudelo

2014-05-01

The objective of this study was to calculate average years of life lost due to breast and cervical cancer in Mexico in 2000 and 2010. Data on mortality in women aged between 20 and 84 years was obtained from the National Institute for Statistics and Geography. Age-specific mortality rates and average years of life lost, which is an estimate of the number of years that a person would have lived if he or she had not died prematurely, were estimated for both diseases. Data was disaggregated into five-year age groups and socioeconomic status based on the 2010 marginalization index obtained from the National Population Council. A decrease in average years of life lost due to cervical cancer (37.4%) and an increase in average years of life lost due breast cancer (8.9%) was observed during the period studied. Average years of life lost due to cervical cancer was greater among women living in areas with a high marginalization index, while average years of life lost due to breast cancer was greater in women from areas with a low marginalization index.

Neighborhood income, health insurance, and prehospital delay for myocardial infarction: the atherosclerosis risk in communities study.

PubMed

Foraker, Randi E; Rose, Kathryn M; McGinn, Aileen P; Suchindran, Chirayath M; Goff, David C; Whitsel, Eric A; Wood, Joy L; Rosamond, Wayne D

2008-09-22

Outcomes following an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) are generally more favorable if prehospital delay time is minimized. We examined the association of neighborhood household income (nINC) and health insurance status with prehospital delay among a weighted sample of 9700 men and women with a validated, definite, or probable AMI in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) community surveillance study (1993-2002). Weighted multinomial regression with generalized estimation equations was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and to account for the clustering of patients within census tracts. Low nINC was associated with a higher odds of long vs short delay (OR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.09-1.96) and medium vs short delay (OR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.12-1.81) compared with high nINC in a model including age, sex, race, diabetes, hypertension, presence of chest pain, arrival at the hospital via emergency medical service, distance from residence to hospital, study community, and year of AMI event. Meanwhile, compared with patients with prepaid insurance or prepaid plus Medicare, patients with Medicaid were more likely to have a long vs short delay (OR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.10-3.19) and a medium vs short delay (OR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.13-2.74). Both low nINC and being a Medicaid recipient are associated with longer prehospital delay. Reducing socioeconomic and insurance disparities in prehospital delay is critical because excess delay time may hinder effective care for AMI.

Modelling the impact of causal and non-causal factors on disruption duration for Toronto's subway system: An exploratory investigation using hazard modelling.

PubMed

Louie, Jacob; Shalaby, Amer; Habib, Khandker Nurul

2017-01-01

Most investigations of incident-related delay duration in the transportation context are restricted to highway traffic, with little attention given to delays due to transit service disruptions. Studies of transit-based delay duration are also considerably less comprehensive than their highway counterparts with respect to examining the effects of non-causal variables on the delay duration. However, delays due to incidents in public transit service can have serious consequences on the overall urban transportation system due to the pivotal and vital role of public transit. The ability to predict the durations of various types of transit system incidents is indispensable for better management and mitigation of service disruptions. This paper presents a detailed investigation on incident delay durations in Toronto's subway system over the year 2013, focusing on the effects of the incidents' location and time, the train-type involved, and the non-adherence to proper recovery procedures. Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) hazard models are estimated to investigate the relationship between these factors and the resulting delay duration. The empirical investigation reveals that incident types that impact both safety and operations simultaneously generally have longer expected delays than incident types that impact either safety or operations alone. Incidents at interchange stations are cleared faster than incidents at non-interchange stations. Incidents during peak periods have nearly the same delay durations as off-peak incidents. The estimated models are believed to be useful tools in predicting the relative magnitude of incident delay duration for better management of subway operations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of delayed reporting of band recoveries on survival estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, David R.; Burnham, Kenneth P.

1980-01-01

Brownie et al. (U.S. Fish and Wildl. Serv., Resource Publ. 131, 1978) presented 14 models based on an array of explicit assumptions for the study of survival in avian populations. These methods are replacing the life table methods previously used to estimate survival rates (e.g., Burnham and Anderson, J. Wildl. Manage., 43: 356-366, 1979). The new methods allow survival or recovery rates, or both, to be constant, time-specific, or time- and age-specific. In studies to estimate survival rates for birds the data are often from recoveries of birds shot or found dead during the hunting season and reported to the Bird Banding Laboratory by sportsmen, conservation agency employees, or the general public. This note examines the bias in estimating annual survival due to a proportion of the recoveries being incorrectly reported a year late. Specifically, a few recoveries each year of, for example, adult male American Widgeon (Anas americana) banded in California are reported as being recovered in year i + 1 when in fact they were actually recovered the previous year i. Delayed reporting might typically be caused by people finding a band in their health clothing in the fall of the year and, being embarrassed about their failure to report the band when it was taken, report it a year late not mentioning the actual year of recovery. Heuristically, delayed reporting should bias estimated annual survival rates upwards because it appears from the data that the birds corresponding to the "delayed" recoveries actually lived an additional year.

Item Response Theory with Estimation of the Latent Density Using Davidian Curves

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woods, Carol M.; Lin, Nan

2009-01-01

Davidian-curve item response theory (DC-IRT) is introduced, evaluated with simulations, and illustrated using data from the Schedule for Nonadaptive and Adaptive Personality Entitlement scale. DC-IRT is a method for fitting unidimensional IRT models with maximum marginal likelihood estimation, in which the latent density is estimated,…

A Procedure for Calculating the Vertical Space Height of the Sacrum When Determining Skeletal Height for Use in the Anatomical Method of Adult Stature Estimation.

PubMed

Hayashi, Atsuko; Emanovsky, Paul D; Pietrusewsky, Michael; Holland, Thomas D

2016-03-01

Estimating stature from skeletonized remains is one of the essential parameters in the development of a biological profile. A new procedure for determining skeletal height (SKH) incorporating the vertical space height (VSH) from the anterior margin of the sacral promontory to the superior margins of the acetabulae for use in the anatomical method of stature estimation is introduced. Regression equations for stature estimation were generated from measurements of 38 American males of European ancestry from the William M. Bass Donated Skeletal Collection. The modification to the procedure results in a SKH that is highly correlated with stature (r = 0.925-0.948). Stature estimates have low standard errors of the estimate ranging from 21.79 to 25.95 mm, biases from to 0.50 to 0.94 mm, and accuracy rates from 17.71 mm to 19.45 mm. The procedure for determining the VSH, which replaces "S1 height" in traditional anatomical method models, is a key improvement to the method. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

The Effect of a Multi-Level Intervention on the Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) among HIV-Infected Men Who Inject Drugs and Were Diagnosed Late in Thai Nguyen, Vietnam

PubMed Central

Zelaya, Carla E.; Le Minh, Nguyen; Lau, Bryan; Latkin, Carl A.; Viet Ha, Tran; Minh Quan, Vu; Mo, Thi Tran; Sripaipan, Teerada; Davis, Wendy W.; Celentano, David D.; Frangakis, Constantine; Go, Vivian F.

2016-01-01

Background In Vietnam, an estimated 256,000 people are living with HIV, and 58% of HIV-infections reported are among people who inject drugs (PWID). While antiretroviral therapy (ART) is widely available in Vietnam, marginalized hard-to-reach male PWID, demonstrate significantly reduced and delayed access to ART. Methods We investigated the effect of a randomized four-arm multi-level intervention trial on ART initiation among male PWID. Our analysis was conducted among a subset of trial participants (n = 136), who were newly diagnosed as HIV-infected, treatment naïve, and eligible for ART (baseline late diagnosis). The trial arms included: 1, standard of care (HIV testing and counseling); 2, structural-level intervention (door-to-door communications and community video screenings); 3, individual-level intervention (counseling plus group support); and 4, individual-level plus structural-level intervention. In a time-to-event analysis, we used a non-parametric approach for competing risks to estimate cumulative incidence function (CIF) for ART initiation (event of interest) by arm and the difference in CIF for each trial arm as compared to Arm 1. Follow-up was conducted at 6, 12, 18 and 24 months. Data collection occurred from 2009 to 2013. Findings By 24-months, 61.0% initiated ART, and 30.9% had died prior to ART initiation. In the first 6 months, participants in arm 4 (individual plus community intervention) had a 28% (95% confidence interval (CI): 6–50%) increased probability of initiating ART. Despite increasing coverage of ART in all arms throughout follow-up, participants in arm 4 retained a 31% (95% CI: 5–56%) increased probability of initiating ART. The individual and community components of the intervention were only effective when delivered together. Conclusions Marginalized, hard-to-reach men, who do not routinely engage in HIV services, and therefore come into care late, may benefit significantly from both individual counseling and group support, in combination with community-focused stigma reduction, when being referred and attempting to initiate urgently needed ART. PMID:27579772

The Effect of a Multi-Level Intervention on the Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) among HIV-Infected Men Who Inject Drugs and Were Diagnosed Late in Thai Nguyen, Vietnam.

PubMed

Zelaya, Carla E; Le Minh, Nguyen; Lau, Bryan; Latkin, Carl A; Viet Ha, Tran; Minh Quan, Vu; Mo, Thi Tran; Sripaipan, Teerada; Davis, Wendy W; Celentano, David D; Frangakis, Constantine; Go, Vivian F

2016-01-01

In Vietnam, an estimated 256,000 people are living with HIV, and 58% of HIV-infections reported are among people who inject drugs (PWID). While antiretroviral therapy (ART) is widely available in Vietnam, marginalized hard-to-reach male PWID, demonstrate significantly reduced and delayed access to ART. We investigated the effect of a randomized four-arm multi-level intervention trial on ART initiation among male PWID. Our analysis was conducted among a subset of trial participants (n = 136), who were newly diagnosed as HIV-infected, treatment naïve, and eligible for ART (baseline late diagnosis). The trial arms included: 1, standard of care (HIV testing and counseling); 2, structural-level intervention (door-to-door communications and community video screenings); 3, individual-level intervention (counseling plus group support); and 4, individual-level plus structural-level intervention. In a time-to-event analysis, we used a non-parametric approach for competing risks to estimate cumulative incidence function (CIF) for ART initiation (event of interest) by arm and the difference in CIF for each trial arm as compared to Arm 1. Follow-up was conducted at 6, 12, 18 and 24 months. Data collection occurred from 2009 to 2013. By 24-months, 61.0% initiated ART, and 30.9% had died prior to ART initiation. In the first 6 months, participants in arm 4 (individual plus community intervention) had a 28% (95% confidence interval (CI): 6-50%) increased probability of initiating ART. Despite increasing coverage of ART in all arms throughout follow-up, participants in arm 4 retained a 31% (95% CI: 5-56%) increased probability of initiating ART. The individual and community components of the intervention were only effective when delivered together. Marginalized, hard-to-reach men, who do not routinely engage in HIV services, and therefore come into care late, may benefit significantly from both individual counseling and group support, in combination with community-focused stigma reduction, when being referred and attempting to initiate urgently needed ART.

Profitability analysis in the hospital industry.

PubMed Central

Cleverley, W O

1978-01-01

Measures of marginal profit are derived for the two payment classes--cost payers and charge payers--that the hospital industry must consider in profitability analysis, i.e., prediction of the excess of revenue over expenses. Two indexes of profitability, use when payment mix is constant and when it is nonconstant, respectively, are derived from the two marginal profit measures, and one of them is shown to be a modification of the contribution margin, the conventional measure of profitability used in general industry. All three measures--the contribution margin and the two new indexes of profitability--are used to estimate changes in net income resulting from changes in patient volume with and without accompanying changes in payment mix. The conventional measure yields large overestimates of expected excess revenue. PMID:632101

Immediate Single-Tooth Implant Placement in Bony Defects in the Esthetic Zone: A 1-Year Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Slagter, Kirsten W; Meijer, Henny J A; Bakker, Nicolaas A; Vissink, Arjan; Raghoebar, Gerry M

2016-06-01

This study aims to assess, with regard to marginal bone level (MBL), whether the outcome of immediate implant placement in bony defects in the esthetic zone was non-inferior to delayed implant placement after 1 year. Forty patients with a failing tooth in the esthetic zone and a labial bony defect of ≥5 mm after removal of a tooth were randomly assigned for immediate (n = 20) or delayed (n = 20) implant placement. Second-stage surgery and provisionalization occurred after 3 months of healing. Follow-up was at 1 month and 1 year after definitive crown placement. The study was powered to detect a difference in MBL of >0.9 mm. Buccal bone thickness, soft tissue peri-implant parameters, esthetic indices, and patient satisfaction were also assessed. One year after definitive crown placement, MBL loss was 0.56 ± 0.39 mm mesially and 0.74 ± 0.51 mm distally for the immediate placement group and 0.51 ± 0.43 mesially and 0.54 ± 0.45 distally mm for the delayed placement group, respectively (not significant). Regarding differences in means, non-inferiority was observed after 1 year (difference in mean for immediate versus delayed: mesially 0.04 mm [95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.22 to 0.30 mm, P = 0.40]; distally 0.21 mm [95% CI = -0.10 to 0.51 mm, P = 0.58]). No significant differences in the other outcome variables were observed. Immediate implant placement with delayed provisionalization was non-inferior to delayed implant placement with delayed provisionalization in labial bony defects of ≥5 mm regarding change in MBL. Although not powered for other outcome variables, no clinically relevant differences were observed in these variables.

Effects of the NMDA receptor antagonists dizocilpine and Ro 63-1908 on delay-discounting and risky decision-making in a gambling task.

PubMed

Higgins, Guy A; Silenieks, Leo B; MacMillan, Cam; Zeeb, Fiona D; Thevarkunnel, Sandy

2018-04-22

Previous studies demonstrated that NMDA receptor antagonists such as dizocilpine (MK801) and the GluN2B NMDA antagonist Ro 63-1908 promote impulsive action (motor impulsivity). The effects of these treatments on impulsive choice and decision-making is less well characterized. Two experiments were undertaken. In the first experiment, given evidence for delay order as a factor in choice selection, the effect of dizocilpine was examined in a delay discounting task with separate groups of male Long-Evans rats trained to a schedule of either ascending (i.e. 0-40 s), or descending delays (i.e. 40-0 s). Under the ascending-delay schedule, dizocilpine (0.03-0.06 mg/kg SC) reduced discounting, yet on the descending-delay schedule discounting was increased. Subgrouping rats according to discounting rate under vehicle pretreatment were consistent with a treatment-induced choice perseveration. In a second experiment, male Long-Evans rats were trained to a gambling task (rGT). Neither dizocilpine (0.01-0.06 mg/kg SC) nor Ro 63-1908 (0.1-1 mg/kg SC) shifted choice from the advantageous to the disadvantageous options. However dizocilpine, and marginally Ro 63-1908, increased choice of the least risky, but suboptimal option. This effect was most evident in rats that initially preferred the disadvantageous options. Consistent with previous studies, both treatments increased measures of motor impulsivity. These results demonstrate that dizocilpine has effects on discounting dependent on delay order and likely reflective of perseveration. On the rGT task, neither dizocilpine nor Ro 63-1908 promoted risky choice, yet both NMDA receptor antagonists increased impulsive action. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Relationships between autofocus methods for SAR and self-survey techniques for SONAR. [Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wahl, D.E.; Jakowatz, C.V. Jr.; Ghiglia, D.C.

1991-01-01

Autofocus methods in SAR and self-survey techniques in SONAR have a common mathematical basis in that they both involve estimation and correction of phase errors introduced by sensor position uncertainties. Time delay estimation and correlation methods have been shown to be effective in solving the self-survey problem for towed SONAR arrays. Since it can be shown that platform motion errors introduce similar time-delay estimation problems in SAR imaging, the question arises as to whether such techniques could be effectively employed for autofocus of SAR imagery. With a simple mathematical model for motion errors in SAR, we will show why suchmore » correlation/time-delay techniques are not nearly as effective as established SAR autofocus algorithms such as phase gradient autofocus or sub-aperture based methods. This analysis forms an important bridge between signal processing methodologies for SAR and SONAR. 5 refs., 4 figs.« less

Using Indirect Turbulence Measurements for Real-Time Parameter Estimation in Turbulent Air

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martos, Borja; Morelli, Eugene A.

2012-01-01

The use of indirect turbulence measurements for real-time estimation of parameters in a linear longitudinal dynamics model in atmospheric turbulence was studied. It is shown that measuring the atmospheric turbulence makes it possible to treat the turbulence as a measured explanatory variable in the parameter estimation problem. Commercial off-the-shelf sensors were researched and evaluated, then compared to air data booms. Sources of colored noise in the explanatory variables resulting from typical turbulence measurement techniques were identified and studied. A major source of colored noise in the explanatory variables was identified as frequency dependent upwash and time delay. The resulting upwash and time delay corrections were analyzed and compared to previous time shift dynamic modeling research. Simulation data as well as flight test data in atmospheric turbulence were used to verify the time delay behavior. Recommendations are given for follow on flight research and instrumentation.

Delays in receiving obstetric care and poor maternal outcomes: results from a national multicentre cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The vast majority of maternal deaths in low-and middle-income countries are preventable. Delay in obtaining access to appropriate health care is a fairly common problem which can be improved. The objective of this study was to explore the association between delay in providing obstetric health care and severe maternal morbidity/death. Methods This was a multicentre cross-sectional study, involving 27 referral obstetric facilities in all Brazilian regions between 2009 and 2010. All women admitted to the hospital with a pregnancy-related cause were screened, searching for potentially life-threatening conditions (PLTC), maternal death (MD) and maternal near-miss (MNM) cases, according to the WHO criteria. Data on delays were collected by medical chart review and interview with the medical staff. The prevalence of the three different types of delays was estimated according to the level of care and outcome of the complication. For factors associated with any delay, the PR and 95%CI controlled for cluster design were estimated. Results A total of 82,144 live births were screened, with 9,555 PLTC, MNM or MD cases prospectively identified. Overall, any type of delay was observed in 53.8% of cases; delay related to user factors was observed in 10.2%, 34.6% of delays were related to health service accessibility and 25.7% were related to quality of medical care. The occurrence of any delay was associated with increasing severity of maternal outcome: 52% in PLTC, 68.4% in MNM and 84.1% in MD. Conclusions Although this was not a population-based study and the results could not be generalized, there was a very clear and significant association between frequency of delay and severity of outcome, suggesting that timely and proper management are related to survival. PMID:24886330

Delays in receiving obstetric care and poor maternal outcomes: results from a national multicentre cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Pacagnella, Rodolfo C; Cecatti, José G; Parpinelli, Mary A; Sousa, Maria H; Haddad, Samira M; Costa, Maria L; Souza, João P; Pattinson, Robert C

2014-05-05

The vast majority of maternal deaths in low-and middle-income countries are preventable. Delay in obtaining access to appropriate health care is a fairly common problem which can be improved. The objective of this study was to explore the association between delay in providing obstetric health care and severe maternal morbidity/death. This was a multicentre cross-sectional study, involving 27 referral obstetric facilities in all Brazilian regions between 2009 and 2010. All women admitted to the hospital with a pregnancy-related cause were screened, searching for potentially life-threatening conditions (PLTC), maternal death (MD) and maternal near-miss (MNM) cases, according to the WHO criteria. Data on delays were collected by medical chart review and interview with the medical staff. The prevalence of the three different types of delays was estimated according to the level of care and outcome of the complication. For factors associated with any delay, the PR and 95%CI controlled for cluster design were estimated. A total of 82,144 live births were screened, with 9,555 PLTC, MNM or MD cases prospectively identified. Overall, any type of delay was observed in 53.8% of cases; delay related to user factors was observed in 10.2%, 34.6% of delays were related to health service accessibility and 25.7% were related to quality of medical care. The occurrence of any delay was associated with increasing severity of maternal outcome: 52% in PLTC, 68.4% in MNM and 84.1% in MD. Although this was not a population-based study and the results could not be generalized, there was a very clear and significant association between frequency of delay and severity of outcome, suggesting that timely and proper management are related to survival.

Estimation of the full marginal costs of port related truck traffic.

PubMed

Berechman, Joseph

2009-11-01

NY region is expected to grow by additional 1 million people by 2020, which translates into roughly 70 million more tons of goods to be delivered annually. Due to lack of rail capacity, mainly trucks will haul this volume of freight, challenging an already much constrained highway network. What are the total costs associated with this additional traffic, in particular, congestion, safety and emission? Since a major source of this expected flow is the Port of New York-New Jersey, this paper focuses on the estimation of the full marginal costs of truck traffic resulting from the further expansion of the port's activities.

How Big is Too Big for Hubs: Marginal Profitability in Hub-and-Spoke Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ross, Leola B.; Schmidt, Stephen J.

1997-01-01

Increasing the scale of hub operations at major airports has led to concerns about congestion at excessively large hubs. In this paper, we estimate the marginal cost of adding spokes to an existing hub network. We observe entry/non-entry decisions on potential spokes from existing hubs, and estimate both a variable profit function for providing service in markets using that spoke as well as the fixed costs of providing service to the spoke. We let the fixed costs depend upon the scale of operations at the hub, and find the hub size at which spoke service costs are minimized.

The policy implications of the cost structure of home health agencies.

PubMed

Mukamel, Dana B; Fortinsky, Richard H; White, Alan; Harrington, Charlene; White, Laura M; Ngo-Metzger, Quyen

2014-01-01

To examine the cost structure of home health agencies by estimating an empirical cost function for those that are Medicare-certified, ten years following the implementation of prospective payment. 2010 national Medicare cost report data for certified home health agencies were merged with case-mix information from the Outcome and Assessment Information Set (OASIS). We estimated a fully interacted (by tax status) hybrid cost function for 7,064 agencies and calculated marginal costs as percent of total costs for all variables. The home health industry is dominated by for-profit agencies, which tend to be newer than the non-profit agencies and to have higher average costs per patient but lower costs per visit. For-profit agencies tend to have smaller scale operations and different cost structures, and are less likely to be affiliated with chains. Our estimates suggest diseconomies of scale, zero marginal cost for contracting with therapy workers, and a positive marginal cost for contracting with nurses, when controlling for quality. Our findings suggest that efficiencies may be achieved by promoting non-profit, smaller agencies, with fewer contract nursing staff. This conclusion should be tested further in future studies that address some of the limitations of our study.

Dynamics of the mental health workforce: investigating the composition of physicians and other health providers.

PubMed

Stefos, Theodore; Burgess, James F; Cohen, Jeffrey P; Lehner, Laura; Moran, Eileen

2012-12-01

We evaluate how changes to mental health workforce levels, composition, and degree of labor substitution, may impact typical practice output. Using a generalized Leontief production function and data from 134 U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) mental health practices, we estimate the q-complementarity/q-substitutability of mental health workers. We look at the entire spectrum of mental health services rather than just outpatient or physician office services. We also examine more labor types, including residents, than previous studies. The marginal patient care output contribution is estimated for each labor type as well as the degree to which physicians and other mental health workers may be substitutes or complements. Results indicate that numerous channels exist through which input substitution can improve productivity. Seven of eight labor and capital inputs have positive estimated marginal products. Most factor inputs exhibit diminishing marginal productivity. Of 28 unique labor-capital pairs, 17 are q-complements and 11 are q-substitutes. Complementarity among several labor types provides evidence of a team approach to mental health service provision. Our approach may serve to better inform healthcare providers regarding more productive mental health workforce composition both in and outside of VA.

Gender and Geographic Differences in Developmental Delays among Young Children: Analysis of the Data from the National Registry in Taiwan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lai, Der-Chung; Tseng, Yen-Cheng; Guo, How-Ran

2011-01-01

Although developmental delays are not uncommon in children, the incidence is seldom assessed, and the reported prevalence varies widely. In Taiwan, the government mandates the reporting of suspected cases. Using the national registry data, we conducted a study to estimate the incidence and prevalence of developmental delays in young children in…

Weather delay costs to trucking.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-11-01

Estimates of the nations freight sector of transportation range to upwards of $600 billion of total gross domestic product with 70 percent of total value and 60 percent of total weight moving by truck. Weather-related delays can add significantly ...

Transfer Alignment Error Compensator Design Based on Robust State Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyou, Joon; Lim, You-Chol

This paper examines the transfer alignment problem of the StrapDown Inertial Navigation System (SDINS), which is subject to the ship’s roll and pitch. Major error sources for velocity and attitude matching are lever arm effect, measurement time delay and ship-body flexure. To reduce these alignment errors, an error compensation method based on state augmentation and robust state estimation is devised. A linearized error model for the velocity and attitude matching transfer alignment system is derived first by linearizing the nonlinear measurement equation with respect to its time delay and dominant Y-axis flexure, and by augmenting the delay state and flexure state into conventional linear state equations. Then an H∞ filter is introduced to account for modeling uncertainties of time delay and the ship-body flexure. The simulation results show that this method considerably decreases azimuth alignment errors considerably.

Adaptive fuzzy predictive sliding control of uncertain nonlinear systems with bound-known input delay.

PubMed

Khazaee, Mostafa; Markazi, Amir H D; Omidi, Ehsan

2015-11-01

In this paper, a new Adaptive Fuzzy Predictive Sliding Mode Control (AFP-SMC) is presented for nonlinear systems with uncertain dynamics and unknown input delay. The control unit consists of a fuzzy inference system to approximate the ideal linearization control, together with a switching strategy to compensate for the estimation errors. Also, an adaptive fuzzy predictor is used to estimate the future values of the system states to compensate for the time delay. The adaptation laws are used to tune the controller and predictor parameters, which guarantee the stability based on a Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional. To evaluate the method effectiveness, the simulation and experiment on an overhead crane system are presented. According to the obtained results, AFP-SMC can effectively control the uncertain nonlinear systems, subject to input delays of known bound. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dose Distribution in Bladder and Surrounding Normal Tissues in Relation to Bladder Volume in Conformal Radiotherapy for Bladder Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Majewski, Wojciech, E-mail: wmajewski1@poczta.onet.p; Wesolowska, Iwona; Urbanczyk, Hubert

2009-12-01

Purpose: To estimate bladder movements and changes in dose distribution in the bladder and surrounding tissues associated with changes in bladder filling and to estimate the internal treatment margins. Methods and Materials: A total of 16 patients with bladder cancer underwent planning computed tomography scans with 80- and 150-mL bladder volumes. The bladder displacements associated with the change in volume were measured. Each patient had treatment plans constructed for a 'partially empty' (80 mL) and a 'partially full' (150 mL) bladder. An additional plan was constructed for tumor irradiation alone. A subsequent 9 patients underwent sequential weekly computed tomography scanningmore » during radiotherapy to verify the bladder movements and estimate the internal margins. Results: Bladder movements were mainly observed cranially, and the estimated internal margins were nonuniform and largest (>2 cm) anteriorly and cranially. The dose distribution in the bladder worsened if the bladder increased in volume: 70% of patients (11 of 16) would have had bladder underdosed to <95% of the prescribed dose. The dose distribution in the rectum and intestines was better with a 'partially empty' bladder (volume that received >70%, 80%, and 90% of the prescribed dose was 23%, 20%, and 15% for the rectum and 162, 144, 123 cm{sup 3} for the intestines, respectively) than with a 'partially full' bladder (volume that received >70%, 80%, and 90% of the prescribed dose was 28%, 24%, and 18% for the rectum and 180, 158, 136 cm{sup 3} for the intestines, respectively). The change in bladder filling during RT was significant for the dose distribution in the intestines. Tumor irradiation alone was significantly better than whole bladder irradiation in terms of organ sparing. Conclusion: The displacements of the bladder due to volume changes were mainly related to the upper wall. The internal margins should be nonuniform, with the largest margins cranially and anteriorly. The changes in bladder filling during RT could influence the dose distribution in the bladder and intestines. The dose distribution in the rectum and bowel was slightly better with a 'partially empty' than with a 'full' bladder.« less

On land-use modeling: A treatise of satellite imagery data and misclassification error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandler, Austin M.

Recent availability of satellite-based land-use data sets, including data sets with contiguous spatial coverage over large areas, relatively long temporal coverage, and fine-scale land cover classifications, is providing new opportunities for land-use research. However, care must be used when working with these datasets due to misclassification error, which causes inconsistent parameter estimates in the discrete choice models typically used to model land-use. I therefore adapt the empirical correction methods developed for other contexts (e.g., epidemiology) so that they can be applied to land-use modeling. I then use a Monte Carlo simulation, and an empirical application using actual satellite imagery data from the Northern Great Plains, to compare the results of a traditional model ignoring misclassification to those from models accounting for misclassification. Results from both the simulation and application indicate that ignoring misclassification will lead to biased results. Even seemingly insignificant levels of misclassification error (e.g., 1%) result in biased parameter estimates, which alter marginal effects enough to affect policy inference. At the levels of misclassification typical in current satellite imagery datasets (e.g., as high as 35%), ignoring misclassification can lead to systematically erroneous land-use probabilities and substantially biased marginal effects. The correction methods I propose, however, generate consistent parameter estimates and therefore consistent estimates of marginal effects and predicted land-use probabilities.

Determination of differential arrival times by cross-correlating worldwide seismological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godano, M.; Nolet, G.; Zaroli, C.

2012-12-01

Cross-correlation delays are the preferred body wave observables in global tomography. Heterogeneity is the main factor influencing delay times found by cross-correlation. Not only the waveform, but also the arrival time itself is affected by differences in seismic velocity encountered along the way. An accurate method for estimating differential times of seismic arrivals across a regional array by cross-correlation was developed by VanDecar and Crosson [1990]. For the estimation of global travel time delays in different frequency bands, Sigloch and Nolet [2006] developed a method for the estimation of body wave delays using a matched filter, which requires the separate estimation of the source time function. Sigloch et al. [2008] found that waveforms often cluster in and opposite the direction of rupture propagation on the fault, confirming that the directivity effect is a major factor in shaping the waveform of large events. We propose a generalization of the VanDecar-Crosson method to which we add a correction for the directivity effect in the seismological data. The new method allows large events to be treated without the need to estimate the source time function for the computation of a matched synthetic waveform. The procedure consists in (1) the detection of the directivity effect in the data and the determination of a rupture model (unilateral or bilateral) explaining the differences in pulse duration among the stations, (2) the determination of an apparent fault rupture length explaining the pulse durations, (3) the removal of the delay due to the directivity effect in the pulse duration , by stretching or contracting the seismograms for directive and anti-directive stations respectively and (4) the application of a generalized VanDecar and Crosson method using only delays between pairs of stations that have an acceptable correlation coefficient. We validate our method by performing tests on synthetic data. Results show that the error between theoretical and measured differential arrival time are significantly reduced for the corrected data. We illustrate our method on data from several real earthquakes.

MODEST - JPL GEODETIC AND ASTROMETRIC VLBI MODELING AND PARAMETER ESTIMATION PROGRAM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sovers, O. J.

1994-01-01

Observations of extragalactic radio sources in the gigahertz region of the radio frequency spectrum by two or more antennas, separated by a baseline as long as the diameter of the Earth, can be reduced, by radio interferometry techniques, to yield time delays and their rates of change. The Very Long Baseline Interferometric (VLBI) observables can be processed by the MODEST software to yield geodetic and astrometric parameters of interest in areas such as geophysical satellite and spacecraft tracking applications and geodynamics. As the accuracy of radio interferometry has improved, increasingly complete models of the delay and delay rate observables have been developed. MODEST is a delay model (MOD) and parameter estimation (EST) program that takes into account delay effects such as geometry, clock, troposphere, and the ionosphere. MODEST includes all known effects at the centimeter level in modeling. As the field evolves and new effects are discovered, these can be included in the model. In general, the model includes contributions to the observables from Earth orientation, antenna motion, clock behavior, atmospheric effects, and radio source structure. Within each of these categories, a number of unknown parameters may be estimated from the observations. Since all parts of the time delay model contain nearly linear parameter terms, a square-root-information filter (SRIF) linear least-squares algorithm is employed in parameter estimation. Flexibility (via dynamic memory allocation) in the MODEST code ensures that the same executable can process a wide array of problems. These range from a few hundred observations on a single baseline, yielding estimates of tens of parameters, to global solutions estimating tens of thousands of parameters from hundreds of thousands of observations at antennas widely distributed over the Earth's surface. Depending on memory and disk storage availability, large problems may be subdivided into more tractable pieces that are processed sequentially. MODEST is written in FORTRAN 77, C-language, and VAX ASSEMBLER for DEC VAX series computers running VMS. It requires 6Mb of RAM for execution. The standard distribution medium for this package is a 1600 BPI 9-track magnetic tape in DEC VAX BACKUP format. It is also available on a TK50 tape cartridge in DEC VAX BACKUP format. Instructions for use and sample input and output data are available on the distribution media. This program was released in 1993 and is a copyrighted work with all copyright vested in NASA.

Estimating long-wavelength dynamic topographic change of passive continental margins since the Early Cretaceous

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Dietmar; Hassan, Rakib; Gurnis, Michael; Flament, Nicolas; Williams, Simon

2017-04-01

The influence of mantle convection on dynamic topographic change along continental margins is difficult to unravel, because their stratigraphic record is dominated by tectonic subsidence caused by rifting. Yet, dynamic topography can potentially introduce significant depth anomalies along passive margins, influencing their water depth, sedimentary environments and geohistory. Here we follow a three-fold approach to estimate changes in dynamic topography along both continental interiors and passive margins based on a set of seven global mantle convection models. These models include different methodologies (forward and hybrid backward-forward methods), different plate reconstructions and alternative mantle rheologies. We demonstrate that a geodynamic forward model that includes adiabatic heating in addition to internal heating from radiogenic sources, and a mantle viscosity profile with a gradual increase in viscosity below the mantle transition zone, provides a greatly improved match to the spectral range of residual topography end-members as compared with previous models at very long wavelengths (spherical degrees 2-3). We combine global sea level estimates with predicted surface dynamic topography to evaluate the match between predicted continental flooding patterns and published paleo-coastlines by comparing predicted versus geologically reconstructed land fractions and spatial overlaps of flooded regions for individual continents since 140 Ma. Modelled versus geologically reconstructed land fractions match within 10% for most models, and the spatial overlaps of inundated regions are mostly between 85% and 100% for the Cenozoic, dropping to about 75-100% in the Cretaceous. We categorise the evolution of modelled dynamic topography in both continental interiors and along passive margins using cluster analysis to investigate how clusters of similar dynamic topography time series are distributed spatially. A subdivision of four clusters is found to best reveal end-members of dynamic topography evolution along passive margins and their hinterlands, differentiating topographic stability, long-term pronounced subsidence, initial stability over a dynamic high followed by moderate subsidence and regions that are relatively proximal to subduction zones with varied dynamic topography histories. Along passive continental margins the most commonly observed process is a gradual move from dynamic highs towards lows during the fragmentation of Pangea, reflecting that many passive margins now overly slabs sinking in the lower mantle. Our best-fit model results in up to 500 ±150 m of total dynamic subsidence of continental interiors while along passive margins the maximum predicted dynamic topographic change over 140 million years is about 350 ±150 m of subsidence. Models with plumes exhibit clusters of transient passive margin uplift of about 200 ±200m. The good overall match between predicted dynamic topography and geologically mapped paleo-coastlines makes a convincing case that mantle-driven topographic change is a critical component of relative sea level change, and one of the main driving forces generating the observed geometries and timings of large-scale shifts in paleo-coastlines.

Treatment Effect Estimation Using Nonlinear Two-Stage Instrumental Variable Estimators: Another Cautionary Note.

PubMed

Chapman, Cole G; Brooks, John M

2016-12-01

To examine the settings of simulation evidence supporting use of nonlinear two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI) instrumental variable (IV) methods for estimating average treatment effects (ATE) using observational data and investigate potential bias of 2SRI across alternative scenarios of essential heterogeneity and uniqueness of marginal patients. Potential bias of linear and nonlinear IV methods for ATE and local average treatment effects (LATE) is assessed using simulation models with a binary outcome and binary endogenous treatment across settings varying by the relationship between treatment effectiveness and treatment choice. Results show that nonlinear 2SRI models produce estimates of ATE and LATE that are substantially biased when the relationships between treatment and outcome for marginal patients are unique from relationships for the full population. Bias of linear IV estimates for LATE was low across all scenarios. Researchers are increasingly opting for nonlinear 2SRI to estimate treatment effects in models with binary and otherwise inherently nonlinear dependent variables, believing that it produces generally unbiased and consistent estimates. This research shows that positive properties of nonlinear 2SRI rely on assumptions about the relationships between treatment effect heterogeneity and choice. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Improving the estimation of zenith dry tropospheric delays using regional surface meteorological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, X.; Heck, B.; Awange, J. L.

2013-12-01

Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are emerging as possible tools for remote sensing high-resolution atmospheric water vapour that improves weather forecasting through numerical weather prediction models. Nowadays, the GNSS-derived tropospheric zenith total delay (ZTD), comprising zenith dry delay (ZDD) and zenith wet delay (ZWD), is achievable with sub-centimetre accuracy. However, if no representative near-site meteorological information is available, the quality of the ZDD derived from tropospheric models is degraded, leading to inaccurate estimation of the water vapour component ZWD as difference between ZTD and ZDD. On the basis of freely accessible regional surface meteorological data, this paper proposes a height-dependent linear correction model for a priori ZDD. By applying the ordinary least-squares estimation (OLSE), bootstrapping (BOOT), and leave-one-out cross-validation (CROS) methods, the model parameters are estimated and analysed with respect to outlier detection. The model validation is carried out using GNSS stations with near-site meteorological measurements. The results verify the efficiency of the proposed ZDD correction model, showing a significant reduction in the mean bias from several centimetres to about 5 mm. The OLSE method enables a fast computation, while the CROS procedure allows for outlier detection. All the three methods produce consistent results after outlier elimination, which improves the regression quality by about 20% and the model accuracy by up to 30%.

Economic value of big game habitat production from natural and prescribed fire

Treesearch

Armando Gonzalez-Caban; John B. Loomis; Dana Griffin; Elen Wu; Daniel McCollum; Jane McKeever; Diane Freeman

2003-01-01

A macro time-series model and a micro GIS model were used to estimate a production function relating deer harvest response to prescribed fire, holding constant other environmental variables. The macro time-series model showed a marginal increase in deer harvested of 33 for an increase of 1,100 acres of prescribed burn. The marginal deer increase for the micro GIS model...

Robust versus consistent variance estimators in marginal structural Cox models.

PubMed

Enders, Dirk; Engel, Susanne; Linder, Roland; Pigeot, Iris

2018-06-11

In survival analyses, inverse-probability-of-treatment (IPT) and inverse-probability-of-censoring (IPC) weighted estimators of parameters in marginal structural Cox models are often used to estimate treatment effects in the presence of time-dependent confounding and censoring. In most applications, a robust variance estimator of the IPT and IPC weighted estimator is calculated leading to conservative confidence intervals. This estimator assumes that the weights are known rather than estimated from the data. Although a consistent estimator of the asymptotic variance of the IPT and IPC weighted estimator is generally available, applications and thus information on the performance of the consistent estimator are lacking. Reasons might be a cumbersome implementation in statistical software, which is further complicated by missing details on the variance formula. In this paper, we therefore provide a detailed derivation of the variance of the asymptotic distribution of the IPT and IPC weighted estimator and explicitly state the necessary terms to calculate a consistent estimator of this variance. We compare the performance of the robust and consistent variance estimators in an application based on routine health care data and in a simulation study. The simulation reveals no substantial differences between the 2 estimators in medium and large data sets with no unmeasured confounding, but the consistent variance estimator performs poorly in small samples or under unmeasured confounding, if the number of confounders is large. We thus conclude that the robust estimator is more appropriate for all practical purposes. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Dissociation of Self-Motion and Object Motion by Linear Population Decoding That Approximates Marginalization

PubMed Central

Sasaki, Ryo; Angelaki, Dora E.

2017-01-01

We use visual image motion to judge the movement of objects, as well as our own movements through the environment. Generally, image motion components caused by object motion and self-motion are confounded in the retinal image. Thus, to estimate heading, the brain would ideally marginalize out the effects of object motion (or vice versa), but little is known about how this is accomplished neurally. Behavioral studies suggest that vestibular signals play a role in dissociating object motion and self-motion, and recent computational work suggests that a linear decoder can approximate marginalization by taking advantage of diverse multisensory representations. By measuring responses of MSTd neurons in two male rhesus monkeys and by applying a recently-developed method to approximate marginalization by linear population decoding, we tested the hypothesis that vestibular signals help to dissociate self-motion and object motion. We show that vestibular signals stabilize tuning for heading in neurons with congruent visual and vestibular heading preferences, whereas they stabilize tuning for object motion in neurons with discrepant preferences. Thus, vestibular signals enhance the separability of joint tuning for object motion and self-motion. We further show that a linear decoder, designed to approximate marginalization, allows the population to represent either self-motion or object motion with good accuracy. Decoder weights are broadly consistent with a readout strategy, suggested by recent computational work, in which responses are decoded according to the vestibular preferences of multisensory neurons. These results demonstrate, at both single neuron and population levels, that vestibular signals help to dissociate self-motion and object motion. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The brain often needs to estimate one property of a changing environment while ignoring others. This can be difficult because multiple properties of the environment may be confounded in sensory signals. The brain can solve this problem by marginalizing over irrelevant properties to estimate the property-of-interest. We explore this problem in the context of self-motion and object motion, which are inherently confounded in the retinal image. We examine how diversity in a population of multisensory neurons may be exploited to decode self-motion and object motion from the population activity of neurons in macaque area MSTd. PMID:29030435

Superconducting flux flow digital circuits

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martens, J.S.; Zipperian, T.E.; Hietala, V.M.

1993-03-01

The authors have developed a family of digital logic circuits based on superconducting flux flow transistors that show high speed, reasonable signal levels, large fan-out, and large noise margins. The circuits are made from high-temperature superconductors (HTS) and have been shown to operate at over 90 K. NOR gates have been demonstrated with fan-outs of more than 5 and fully loaded switching times less than a fixture-limited 50 ps. Ring-oscillator data suggest inverter delay times of about 40ps when using a 3-[mu]m linewidths. Simple flip-flops have also been demonstrated showing large noise margins, response times of less than 30 ps,more » and static power dissipation on the order of 30 nW. Among other uses, this logic family is appropriate as an interface between logic families such as single flux quantum and conventional semiconductor logic.« less

Accustomed to enduring: experiences of African-American women seeking care for cardiac symptoms.

PubMed

Banks, Angela D; Malone, Ruth E

2005-01-01

Understand the meaning of delayed treatment seeking in African-American women with unstable angina and myocardial infarction. Phenomenologic analysis of in-depth interview data and field notes on 12 African-American women hospitalized with unstable angina or myocardial infarction. Women's interpretation of and response to symptoms were informed by experiences of marginalization and their self-understanding as people who were strong and who had endured life's hardships. When hospitalized, some women experienced trivialization of their complaints by clinicians and a focus on technological procedures over respectfully attending to their concerns, which provided further disincentives to seeking care. Three major themes emerged: misrecognition and discounting of symptoms, enduring, and influence of faith. Experiences of marginalization shape responses to symptoms, care-seeking behavior, and interpretation of subsequent care experiences for African-American women with cardiac disease, who may experience different symptoms as well as interpret them differently than members of other groups.

Application of Bounded Linear Stability Analysis Method for Metrics-Driven Adaptive Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bakhtiari-Nejad, Maryam; Nguyen, Nhan T.; Krishnakumar, Kalmanje

2009-01-01

This paper presents the application of Bounded Linear Stability Analysis (BLSA) method for metrics-driven adaptive control. The bounded linear stability analysis method is used for analyzing stability of adaptive control models, without linearizing the adaptive laws. Metrics-driven adaptive control introduces a notion that adaptation should be driven by some stability metrics to achieve robustness. By the application of bounded linear stability analysis method the adaptive gain is adjusted during the adaptation in order to meet certain phase margin requirements. Analysis of metrics-driven adaptive control is evaluated for a second order system that represents a pitch attitude control of a generic transport aircraft. The analysis shows that the system with the metrics-conforming variable adaptive gain becomes more robust to unmodeled dynamics or time delay. The effect of analysis time-window for BLSA is also evaluated in order to meet the stability margin criteria.

Taconic plate kinematics as revealed by foredeep stratigraphy, Appalachian Orogen

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bradley, D.C.

1989-01-01

Destruction of the Ordovician passive margin of eastern North America is recorded by an upward deepening succession of carbonates, shales, and flysch. Shelf drowning occurred first at the northern end of the orogen in Newfoundland, then at the southern end of the orogen in Georgia, and finally in Quebec. Diachronism is attributed to oblique collision between an irregular passive margin, that had a deep embayment in Quebec, and at least one east dipping subduction complex. The rate of plate convergence during collision is estimated at 1 to 2 cm/yr, and the minimum width of the ocean that closed is estimated at 500 to 900 km. The drowning isochron map provides a new basis for estimating tectonic transport distances of four of these allochthons (about 165 to 450 km), results not readily obtained by conventional structural analysis. -Author

Competing risks regression for clustered data

PubMed Central

Zhou, Bingqing; Fine, Jason; Latouche, Aurelien; Labopin, Myriam

2012-01-01

A population average regression model is proposed to assess the marginal effects of covariates on the cumulative incidence function when there is dependence across individuals within a cluster in the competing risks setting. This method extends the Fine–Gray proportional hazards model for the subdistribution to situations, where individuals within a cluster may be correlated due to unobserved shared factors. Estimators of the regression parameters in the marginal model are developed under an independence working assumption where the correlation across individuals within a cluster is completely unspecified. The estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal, and variance estimation may be achieved without specifying the form of the dependence across individuals. A simulation study evidences that the inferential procedures perform well with realistic sample sizes. The practical utility of the methods is illustrated with data from the European Bone Marrow Transplant Registry. PMID:22045910

Analysing the Zenith Tropospheric Delay Estimates in On-line Precise Point Positioning (PPP) Services and PPP Software Packages.

PubMed

Mendez Astudillo, Jorge; Lau, Lawrence; Tang, Yu-Ting; Moore, Terry

2018-02-14

As Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals travel through the troposphere, a tropospheric delay occurs due to a change in the refractive index of the medium. The Precise Point Positioning (PPP) technique can achieve centimeter/millimeter positioning accuracy with only one GNSS receiver. The Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) is estimated alongside with the position unknowns in PPP. Estimated ZTD can be very useful for meteorological applications, an example is the estimation of water vapor content in the atmosphere from the estimated ZTD. PPP is implemented with different algorithms and models in online services and software packages. In this study, a performance assessment with analysis of ZTD estimates from three PPP online services and three software packages is presented. The main contribution of this paper is to show the accuracy of ZTD estimation achievable in PPP. The analysis also provides the GNSS users and researchers the insight of the processing algorithm dependence and impact on PPP ZTD estimation. Observation data of eight whole days from a total of nine International GNSS Service (IGS) tracking stations spread in the northern hemisphere, the equatorial region and the southern hemisphere is used in this analysis. The PPP ZTD estimates are compared with the ZTD obtained from the IGS tropospheric product of the same days. The estimates of two of the three online PPP services show good agreement (<1 cm) with the IGS ZTD values at the northern and southern hemisphere stations. The results also show that the online PPP services perform better than the selected PPP software packages at all stations.

Experimental validation of the van Herk margin formula for lung radiation therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ecclestone, Gillian; Heath, Emily; Bissonnette, Jean-Pierre

2013-11-15

Purpose: To validate the van Herk margin formula for lung radiation therapy using realistic dose calculation algorithms and respiratory motion modeling. The robustness of the margin formula against variations in lesion size, peak-to-peak motion amplitude, tissue density, treatment technique, and plan conformity was assessed, along with the margin formula assumption of a homogeneous dose distribution with perfect plan conformity.Methods: 3DCRT and IMRT lung treatment plans were generated within the ORBIT treatment planning platform (RaySearch Laboratories, Sweden) on 4DCT datasets of virtual phantoms. Random and systematic respiratory motion induced errors were simulated using deformable registration and dose accumulation tools available withinmore » ORBIT for simulated cases of varying lesion sizes, peak-to-peak motion amplitudes, tissue densities, and plan conformities. A detailed comparison between the margin formula dose profile model, the planned dose profiles, and penumbra widths was also conducted to test the assumptions of the margin formula. Finally, a correction to account for imperfect plan conformity was tested as well as a novel application of the margin formula that accounts for the patient-specific motion trajectory.Results: The van Herk margin formula ensured full clinical target volume coverage for all 3DCRT and IMRT plans of all conformities with the exception of small lesions in soft tissue. No dosimetric trends with respect to plan technique or lesion size were observed for the systematic and random error simulations. However, accumulated plans showed that plan conformity decreased with increasing tumor motion amplitude. When comparing dose profiles assumed in the margin formula model to the treatment plans, discrepancies in the low dose regions were observed for the random and systematic error simulations. However, the margin formula respected, in all experiments, the 95% dose coverage required for planning target volume (PTV) margin derivation, as defined by the ICRU; thus, suitable PTV margins were estimated. The penumbra widths calculated in lung tissue for each plan were found to be very similar to the 6.4 mm value assumed by the margin formula model. The plan conformity correction yielded inconsistent results which were largely affected by image and dose grid resolution while the trajectory modified PTV plans yielded a dosimetric benefit over the standard internal target volumes approach with up to a 5% decrease in the V20 value.Conclusions: The margin formula showed to be robust against variations in tumor size and motion, treatment technique, plan conformity, as well as low tissue density. This was validated by maintaining coverage of all of the derived PTVs by 95% dose level, as required by the formal definition of the PTV. However, the assumption of perfect plan conformity in the margin formula derivation yields conservative margin estimation. Future modifications to the margin formula will require a correction for plan conformity. Plan conformity can also be improved by using the proposed trajectory modified PTV planning approach. This proves especially beneficial for tumors with a large anterior–posterior component of respiratory motion.« less

Bayesian Estimation of Multidimensional Item Response Models. A Comparison of Analytic and Simulation Algorithms

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin-Fernandez, Manuel; Revuelta, Javier

2017-01-01

This study compares the performance of two estimation algorithms of new usage, the Metropolis-Hastings Robins-Monro (MHRM) and the Hamiltonian MCMC (HMC), with two consolidated algorithms in the psychometric literature, the marginal likelihood via EM algorithm (MML-EM) and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), in the estimation of multidimensional…

Implementation of the Iterative Proportion Fitting Algorithm for Geostatistical Facies Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li Yupeng, E-mail: yupeng@ualberta.ca; Deutsch, Clayton V.

2012-06-15

In geostatistics, most stochastic algorithm for simulation of categorical variables such as facies or rock types require a conditional probability distribution. The multivariate probability distribution of all the grouped locations including the unsampled location permits calculation of the conditional probability directly based on its definition. In this article, the iterative proportion fitting (IPF) algorithm is implemented to infer this multivariate probability. Using the IPF algorithm, the multivariate probability is obtained by iterative modification to an initial estimated multivariate probability using lower order bivariate probabilities as constraints. The imposed bivariate marginal probabilities are inferred from profiles along drill holes or wells.more » In the IPF process, a sparse matrix is used to calculate the marginal probabilities from the multivariate probability, which makes the iterative fitting more tractable and practical. This algorithm can be extended to higher order marginal probability constraints as used in multiple point statistics. The theoretical framework is developed and illustrated with estimation and simulation example.« less

High risk of tsunami in the northern Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grindlay, Nancy R.; Hearne, Meghan; Mann, Paul

The magnitude Mw = 9.3 Sumatra earthquake of 26 December 2004 claimed the lives of an estimated 300,000 people living in coastal areas of seven different countries around the Indian Ocean. This event raised the question of whether similar far-traveled tsunamis generated by plate boundary faulting could affect the estimated 150 million people living in coastal areas of the United States, including Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.Aside from the Pacific plate margin of North America, the North America-Caribbean plate boundary is the closest (˜2000 km) active plate boundary to coastal areas in the Gulf of Mexico and the U.S. Atlantic seaboard. Researchers also have proposed that other possible tsunami-generating sources that could affect coastal areas of the United States include slumping of the shelf margin along the Virginia-North Carolina margin [Driscoll et al., 2000] and slumping of volcanic edifices in the Canary Islands [Ward and Day, 2001].

Estimating the Effect of Health Insurance on Personal Prescription Drug Importation

PubMed Central

Zullo, Andrew R.; Howe, Chanelle J.; Galárraga, Omar

2016-01-01

Personal prescription drug importation occurs in the United States because of the high cost of U.S. medicines and lower cost of foreign equivalents. Importation carries a risk of exposure to counterfeit (i.e., falsified, fraudulent), adulterated, and substandard drugs. Inadequate health insurance may increase the risk of importation. We use inverse probability weighted marginal structural models and data on 87,494 individuals from the 2011-2013 National Health Interview Survey to estimate the marginal association between no health insurance and importation within U.S. subpopulations. The marginal prevalence difference [95% confidence limits] for those without (prevalence = 0.031) versus those with health insurance was 0.016 [0.011, 0.021]. The prevalence difference was higher among persons who were Hispanic, born in Latin America, Russia, or Europe, traveled to developing countries, and did not use the Internet to fill prescriptions or to find health information. Health insurance coverage may effectively reduce importation, especially among particular subpopulations. PMID:26837427

Determinants of hospital-to-nursing home placement delays: a pilot study.

PubMed Central

Weissert, W G; Cready, C M

1988-01-01

Estimates of hospital-to-nursing home placement delays have always been varied, and given Medicare's new Prospective Payment System (PPS) based on diagnosis-related groups (DRGs), they are likely to have changed again. Theory and previous research suggest that four patient characteristics are the main causes of delays: Medicaid as the patient's nursing home payer source; need for heavy care due to major physical or mental problems; admission to the hospital from a nursing home; and lack of social support. A pilot study of all 1,016 elderly awaiting nursing home placement in two admission cohorts (pre- and post-PPS) from the three largest hospitals in the county surrounding Charlotte, North Carolina--where nursing home beds are in short supply--indicates that other factors are more important. While most placements were delayed, delays were short. Multiple regression results show that Medicaid patients' delays were only about a day longer than those of private-pay patients. Of the many heavy-care conditions studied, only three were associated with delay. Patients without social support and patients admitted from a nursing home, discharged to a hospital-affiliated facility, or placed after PPS had shorter delays. Long delays were found among patients who had applied for Medicaid coverage but had not yet been certified as financially eligible. Nonwhites and males were also delayed. These findings, if replicated in other areas with perceived nursing home bed shortages, appear to have important implications not only for the usefulness of nursing home case-mix reimbursement and subacute levels of nursing home care, but for nursing home bed-need estimates, too, as well as for Medicaid eligibility determination practices and civil rights law enforcement. PMID:3060449

Bayesian model selection: Evidence estimation based on DREAM simulation and bridge sampling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volpi, Elena; Schoups, Gerrit; Firmani, Giovanni; Vrugt, Jasper A.

2017-04-01

Bayesian inference has found widespread application in Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling, providing an effective tool for prediction, data assimilation, parameter estimation, uncertainty analysis and hypothesis testing. Under multiple competing hypotheses, the Bayesian approach also provides an attractive alternative to traditional information criteria (e.g. AIC, BIC) for model selection. The key variable for Bayesian model selection is the evidence (or marginal likelihood) that is the normalizing constant in the denominator of Bayes theorem; while it is fundamental for model selection, the evidence is not required for Bayesian inference. It is computed for each hypothesis (model) by averaging the likelihood function over the prior parameter distribution, rather than maximizing it as by information criteria; the larger a model evidence the more support it receives among a collection of hypothesis as the simulated values assign relatively high probability density to the observed data. Hence, the evidence naturally acts as an Occam's razor, preferring simpler and more constrained models against the selection of over-fitted ones by information criteria that incorporate only the likelihood maximum. Since it is not particularly easy to estimate the evidence in practice, Bayesian model selection via the marginal likelihood has not yet found mainstream use. We illustrate here the properties of a new estimator of the Bayesian model evidence, which provides robust and unbiased estimates of the marginal likelihood; the method is coined Gaussian Mixture Importance Sampling (GMIS). GMIS uses multidimensional numerical integration of the posterior parameter distribution via bridge sampling (a generalization of importance sampling) of a mixture distribution fitted to samples of the posterior distribution derived from the DREAM algorithm (Vrugt et al., 2008; 2009). Some illustrative examples are presented to show the robustness and superiority of the GMIS estimator with respect to other commonly used approaches in the literature.

Preoperative (3-dimensional) computed tomography lung reconstruction before anatomic segmentectomy or lobectomy for stage I non-small cell lung cancer.

PubMed

Chan, Ernest G; Landreneau, James R; Schuchert, Matthew J; Odell, David D; Gu, Suicheng; Pu, Jiantao; Luketich, James D; Landreneau, Rodney J

2015-09-01

Accurate cancer localization and negative resection margins are necessary for successful segmentectomy. In this study, we evaluate a newly developed software package that permits automated segmentation of the pulmonary parenchyma, allowing 3-dimensional assessment of tumor size, location, and estimates of surgical margins. A pilot study using a newly developed 3-dimensional computed tomography analytic software package was performed to retrospectively evaluate preoperative computed tomography images of patients who underwent segmentectomy (n = 36) or lobectomy (n = 15) for stage 1 non-small cell lung cancer. The software accomplishes an automated reconstruction of anatomic pulmonary segments of the lung based on bronchial arborization. Estimates of anticipated surgical margins and pulmonary segmental volume were made on the basis of 3-dimensional reconstruction. Autosegmentation was achieved in 72.7% (32/44) of preoperative computed tomography images with slice thicknesses of 3 mm or less. Reasons for segmentation failure included local severe emphysema or pneumonitis, and lower computed tomography resolution. Tumor segmental localization was achieved in all autosegmented studies. The 3-dimensional computed tomography analysis provided a positive predictive value of 87% in predicting a marginal clearance greater than 1 cm and a 75% positive predictive value in predicting a margin to tumor diameter ratio greater than 1 in relation to the surgical pathology assessment. This preoperative 3-dimensional computed tomography analysis of segmental anatomy can confirm the tumor location within an anatomic segment and aid in predicting surgical margins. This 3-dimensional computed tomography information may assist in the preoperative assessment regarding the suitability of segmentectomy for peripheral lung cancers. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Multiple Ordinal Regression by Maximizing the Sum of Margins

PubMed Central

Hamsici, Onur C.; Martinez, Aleix M.

2016-01-01

Human preferences are usually measured using ordinal variables. A system whose goal is to estimate the preferences of humans and their underlying decision mechanisms requires to learn the ordering of any given sample set. We consider the solution of this ordinal regression problem using a Support Vector Machine algorithm. Specifically, the goal is to learn a set of classifiers with common direction vectors and different biases correctly separating the ordered classes. Current algorithms are either required to solve a quadratic optimization problem, which is computationally expensive, or are based on maximizing the minimum margin (i.e., a fixed margin strategy) between a set of hyperplanes, which biases the solution to the closest margin. Another drawback of these strategies is that they are limited to order the classes using a single ranking variable (e.g., perceived length). In this paper, we define a multiple ordinal regression algorithm based on maximizing the sum of the margins between every consecutive class with respect to one or more rankings (e.g., perceived length and weight). We provide derivations of an efficient, easy-to-implement iterative solution using a Sequential Minimal Optimization procedure. We demonstrate the accuracy of our solutions in several datasets. In addition, we provide a key application of our algorithms in estimating human subjects’ ordinal classification of attribute associations to object categories. We show that these ordinal associations perform better than the binary one typically employed in the literature. PMID:26529784

Temporary Losses of Highway Capacity and Impacts on Performance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chin, S.M.

2002-07-31

Traffic congestion and its impacts significantly affect the nation's economic performance and the public's quality of life. In most urban areas, travel demand routinely exceeds highway capacity during peak periods. In addition, events such as crashes, vehicle breakdowns, work zones, adverse weather, and suboptimal signal timing cause temporary capacity losses, often worsening the conditions on already congested highway networks. The impacts of these temporary capacity losses include delay, reduced mobility, and reduced reliability of the highway system. They can also cause drivers to re-route or reschedule trips. Prior to this study, no nationwide estimates of temporary losses of highway capacitymore » had been made by type of capacity-reducing event. Such information is vital to formulating sound public policies for the highway infrastructure and its operation. This study is an initial attempt to provide nationwide estimates of the capacity losses and delay caused by temporary capacity-reducing events. The objective of this study was to develop and implement methods for producing national-level estimates of the loss of capacity on the nation's highway facilities due to temporary phenomena as well as estimates of the impacts of such losses. The estimates produced by this study roughly indicate the magnitude of problems that are likely be addressed by the Congress during the next re-authorization of the Surface Transportation Programs. The scope of the study includes all urban and rural freeways and principal arterials in the nation's highway system for 1999. Specifically, this study attempts to quantify the extent of temporary capacity losses due to crashes, breakdowns, work zones, weather, and sub-optimal signal timing. These events can cause impacts such as capacity reduction, delays, trip rescheduling, rerouting, reduced mobility, and reduced reliability. This study focuses on the reduction of capacity and resulting delays caused by the temporary events mentioned above. Impacts other than capacity losses and delay, such as re-routing, rescheduling, reduced mobility, and reduced reliability, are not covered in this phase of research.« less

Early estimates of SEER cancer incidence, 2014.

PubMed

Lewis, Denise Riedel; Chen, Huann-Sheng; Cockburn, Myles G; Wu, Xiao-Cheng; Stroup, Antoinette M; Midthune, Douglas N; Zou, Zhaohui; Krapcho, Martin F; Miller, Daniel G; Feuer, Eric J

2017-07-01

Cancer incidence rates and trends for cases diagnosed through 2014 using data reported to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program in February 2016 and a validation of rates and trends for cases diagnosed through 2013 and submitted in February 2015 using the November 2015 submission are reported. New cancer sites include the pancreas, kidney and renal pelvis, corpus and uterus, and childhood cancer sites for ages birth to 19 years inclusive. A new reporting delay model is presented for these estimates for more consistent results with the model used for the usual November SEER submissions, adjusting for the large case undercount in the February submission. Joinpoint regression methodology was used to assess trends. Delay-adjusted rates and trends were checked for validity between the February 2016 and November 2016 submissions. Validation revealed that the delay model provides similar estimates of eventual counts using either February or November submission data. Trends declined through 2014 for prostate and colon and rectum cancer for males and females, male and female lung cancer, and cervical cancer. Thyroid cancer and liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer increased. Pancreas (male and female) and corpus and uterus cancer demonstrated a modest increase. Slight increases occurred for male kidney and renal pelvis, and for all childhood cancer sites for ages birth to 19 years. Evaluating early cancer data submissions, adjusted for reporting delay, produces timely and valid incidence rates and trends. The results of the current study support using delay-adjusted February submission data for valid incidence rate and trend estimates over several data cycles. Cancer 2017;123:2524-34. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Consensus-based distributed estimation in multi-agent systems with time delay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdelmawgoud, Ahmed

During the last years, research in the field of cooperative control of swarm of robots, especially Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV); have been improved due to the increase of UAV applications. The ability to track targets using UAVs has a wide range of applications not only civilian but also military as well. For civilian applications, UAVs can perform tasks including, but not limited to: map an unknown area, weather forecasting, land survey, and search and rescue missions. On the other hand, for military personnel, UAV can track and locate a variety of objects, including the movement of enemy vehicles. Consensus problems arise in a number of applications including coordination of UAVs, information processing in wireless sensor networks, and distributed multi-agent optimization. We consider a widely studied consensus algorithms for processing sensed data by different sensors in wireless sensor networks of dynamic agents. Every agent involved in the network forms a weighted average of its own estimated value of some state with the values received from its neighboring agents. We introduced a novelty of consensus-based distributed estimation algorithms. We propose a new algorithm to reach a consensus given time delay constraints. The proposed algorithm performance was observed in a scenario where a swarm of UAVs measuring the location of a ground maneuvering target. We assume that each UAV computes its state prediction and shares it with its neighbors only. However, the shared information applied to different agents with variant time delays. The entire group of UAVs must reach a consensus on target state. Different scenarios were also simulated to examine the effectiveness and performance in terms of overall estimation error, disagreement between delayed and non-delayed agents, and time to reach a consensus for each parameter contributing on the proposed algorithm.

Assessment of tropospheric delay mapping function models in Egypt: Using PTD database model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdelfatah, M. A.; Mousa, Ashraf E.; El-Fiky, Gamal S.

2018-06-01

For space geodetic measurements, estimates of tropospheric delays are highly correlated with site coordinates and receiver clock biases. Thus, it is important to use the most accurate models for the tropospheric delay to reduce errors in the estimates of the other parameters. Both the zenith delay value and mapping function should be assigned correctly to reduce such errors. Several mapping function models can treat the troposphere slant delay. The recent models were not evaluated for the Egyptian local climate conditions. An assessment of these models is needed to choose the most suitable one. The goal of this paper is to test the quality of global mapping function which provides high consistency with precise troposphere delay (PTD) mapping functions. The PTD model is derived from radiosonde data using ray tracing, which consider in this paper as true value. The PTD mapping functions were compared, with three recent total mapping functions model and another three separate dry and wet mapping function model. The results of the research indicate that models are very close up to zenith angle 80°. Saastamoinen and 1/cos z model are behind accuracy. Niell model is better than VMF model. The model of Black and Eisner is a good model. The results also indicate that the geometric range error has insignificant effect on slant delay and the fluctuation of azimuth anti-symmetric is about 1%.

Immediate postpartum levonorgestrel intrauterine device insertion and breast-feeding outcomes: a noninferiority randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Turok, David K; Leeman, Lawrence; Sanders, Jessica N; Thaxton, Lauren; Eggebroten, Jennifer L; Yonke, Nicole; Bullock, Holly; Singh, Rameet; Gawron, Lori M; Espey, Eve

2017-12-01

Immediate postpartum levonorgestrel intrauterine device insertion is increasing in frequency in the United States, but few studies have investigated the effect of early placement on breast-feeding outcomes. This study examined the effect of immediate vs delayed postpartum levonorgestrel intrauterine device insertion on breast-feeding outcomes. We conducted this noninferiority randomized controlled trial at the University of Utah and the University of New Mexico Health Sciences Centers from February 2014 through March 2016. Eligible women were pregnant and planned to breast-feed, spoke English or Spanish, were aged 18-40 years, and desired a levonorgestrel intrauterine device. Enrolled women were randomized 1:1 to immediate postpartum insertion or delayed insertion at 4-12 weeks' postpartum. Prespecified exclusion criteria included delivery <37.0 weeks' gestational age, chorioamnionitis, postpartum hemorrhage, contraindications to levonorgestrel intrauterine device insertion, and medical complications of pregnancy that could affect breast-feeding. We conducted per-protocol analysis as the primary approach, as it is considered the standard for noninferiority studies; we also report the alternative intent-to-treat analysis. We powered the study for the primary outcome, breast-feeding continuation at 8 weeks, to detect a 15% noninferiority margin between groups, requiring 132 participants in each arm. The secondary study outcome, time to lactogenesis, used a validated measure, and was analyzed by survival analysis and log rank test. We followed up participants for ongoing data collection for 6 months. Only the data analysis team was blinded to the intervention. We met the enrollment target with 319 participants, but lost 34 prior to randomization and excluded an additional 26 for medical complications prior to delivery. The final analytic sample included 132 in the immediate group and 127 in the delayed group. Report of any breast-feeding at 8 weeks in the immediate group (79%; 95% confidence interval, 70-86%) was noninferior to that of the delayed group (84%; 95% confidence interval, 76-91%). The 5% difference in breast-feeding continuation at 8 weeks between the groups fell within the noninferiority margin (95% confidence interval, -5.6 to 15%). Time to lactogenesis (mean ± SD) in the immediate group, 65.3 ± 25.7 hours, was noninferior to that of the delayed group, 63.6 ± 21.6 hours. The mean difference between groups was 1.7 hours (95% confidence interval, -4.8 to 8.2 hours), noninferior by log-rank test. A total of 24 intrauterine device expulsions occurred in the immediate group compared to 2 in the delayed group (19% vs 2%, P < .001), consistent with the known higher expulsion rate with immediate vs delayed postpartum intrauterine device insertion. No intrauterine device perforations occurred in either group. Our results of noninferior breast-feeding outcomes between women with immediate and delayed postpartum levonorgestrel intrauterine device insertion suggest that immediate postpartum intrauterine device insertion is an acceptable option for women planning to breast-feed and use the levonorgestrel intrauterine device. Expulsion rates are higher with immediate postpartum levonorgestrel intrauterine device insertion compared to delayed insertion, but this disadvantage may be outweighed by the advantages of immediate initiation of contraception. Providers should offer immediate postpartum intrauterine device insertion to breast-feeding women planning to use the levonorgestrel intrauterine device. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Financial Incentives and Cervical Cancer Screening Participation in Ontario's Primary Care Practice Models.

PubMed

Pendrith, Ciara; Thind, Amardeep; Zaric, Gregory S; Sarma, Sisira

2016-08-01

The primary objective of this paper is to compare cervical cancer screening rates of family physicians in Ontario's two dominant reformed practice models, Family Health Group (FHG) and Family Health Organization (FHO), and traditional fee-for-service (FFS) model. Both reformed models formally enrol patients and offer extensive pay-for-performance incentives; however, they differ by remuneration for core services (FHG is FFS; FHO is capitated). The secondary objective is to estimate the average and marginal costs of screening in each model. Using administrative data on 7,298 family physicians and their 2,083,633 female patients aged 35-69 eligible for cervical cancer screening in 2011, we assessed screening rates after adjusting for patient and physician characteristics. Predicted screening rates, fees and bonus payments were used to estimate the average and marginal costs of cervical cancer screening. Adjusted screening rates were highest in the FHG (81.9%), followed by the FHO (79.6%), and then the traditional FFS model (74.2%). The cost of a cervical cancer screening was $18.30 in the FFS model. The estimated average cost of screening in the FHGs and FHOs were $29.71 and $35.02, respectively, while the corresponding marginal costs were $33.05 and $39.06. We found significant differences in cervical cancer screening rates across Ontario's primary care practice models. Cervical screening rates were significantly higher in practice models eligible for incentives (FHGs and FHOs) than the traditional FFS model. However, the average and marginal cost of screening were lowest in the traditional FFS model and highest in the FHOs. Copyright © 2016 Longwoods Publishing.

Global biogeochemical implications of mercury discharges from rivers and sediment burial.

PubMed

Amos, Helen M; Jacob, Daniel J; Kocman, David; Horowitz, Hannah M; Zhang, Yanxu; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Horvat, Milena; Corbitt, Elizabeth S; Krabbenhoft, David P; Sunderland, Elsie M

2014-08-19

Rivers are an important source of mercury (Hg) to marine ecosystems. Based on an analysis of compiled observations, we estimate global present-day Hg discharges from rivers to ocean margins are 27 ± 13 Mmol a(-1) (5500 ± 2700 Mg a(-1)), of which 28% reaches the open ocean and the rest is deposited to ocean margin sediments. Globally, the source of Hg to the open ocean from rivers amounts to 30% of atmospheric inputs. This is larger than previously estimated due to accounting for elevated concentrations in Asian rivers and variability in offshore transport across different types of estuaries. Riverine inputs of Hg to the North Atlantic have decreased several-fold since the 1970s while inputs to the North Pacific have increased. These trends have large effects on Hg concentrations at ocean margins but are too small in the open ocean to explain observed declines of seawater concentrations in the North Atlantic or increases in the North Pacific. Burial of Hg in ocean margin sediments represents a major sink in the global Hg biogeochemical cycle that has not been previously considered. We find that including this sink in a fully coupled global biogeochemical box model helps to balance the large anthropogenic release of Hg from commercial products recently added to global inventories. It also implies that legacy anthropogenic Hg can be removed from active environmental cycling on a faster time scale (centuries instead of millennia). Natural environmental Hg levels are lower than previously estimated, implying a relatively larger impact from human activity.

Joint radius-length distribution as a measure of anisotropic pore eccentricity: an experimental and analytical framework.

PubMed

Benjamini, Dan; Basser, Peter J

2014-12-07

In this work, we present an experimental design and analytical framework to measure the nonparametric joint radius-length (R-L) distribution of an ensemble of parallel, finite cylindrical pores, and more generally, the eccentricity distribution of anisotropic pores. Employing a novel 3D double pulsed-field gradient acquisition scheme, we first obtain both the marginal radius and length distributions of a population of cylindrical pores and then use these to constrain and stabilize the estimate of the joint radius-length distribution. Using the marginal distributions as constraints allows the joint R-L distribution to be reconstructed from an underdetermined system (i.e., more variables than equations), which requires a relatively small and feasible number of MR acquisitions. Three simulated representative joint R-L distribution phantoms corrupted by different noise levels were reconstructed to demonstrate the process, using this new framework. As expected, the broader the peaks in the joint distribution, the less stable and more sensitive to noise the estimation of the marginal distributions. Nevertheless, the reconstruction of the joint distribution is remarkably robust to increases in noise level; we attribute this characteristic to the use of the marginal distributions as constraints. Axons are known to exhibit local compartment eccentricity variations upon injury; the extent of the variations depends on the severity of the injury. Nonparametric estimation of the eccentricity distribution of injured axonal tissue is of particular interest since generally one cannot assume a parametric distribution a priori. Reconstructing the eccentricity distribution may provide vital information about changes resulting from injury or that occurred during development.

Marginal space learning for efficient detection of 2D/3D anatomical structures in medical images.

PubMed

Zheng, Yefeng; Georgescu, Bogdan; Comaniciu, Dorin

2009-01-01

Recently, marginal space learning (MSL) was proposed as a generic approach for automatic detection of 3D anatomical structures in many medical imaging modalities [1]. To accurately localize a 3D object, we need to estimate nine pose parameters (three for position, three for orientation, and three for anisotropic scaling). Instead of exhaustively searching the original nine-dimensional pose parameter space, only low-dimensional marginal spaces are searched in MSL to improve the detection speed. In this paper, we apply MSL to 2D object detection and perform a thorough comparison between MSL and the alternative full space learning (FSL) approach. Experiments on left ventricle detection in 2D MRI images show MSL outperforms FSL in both speed and accuracy. In addition, we propose two novel techniques, constrained MSL and nonrigid MSL, to further improve the efficiency and accuracy. In many real applications, a strong correlation may exist among pose parameters in the same marginal spaces. For example, a large object may have large scaling values along all directions. Constrained MSL exploits this correlation for further speed-up. The original MSL only estimates the rigid transformation of an object in the image, therefore cannot accurately localize a nonrigid object under a large deformation. The proposed nonrigid MSL directly estimates the nonrigid deformation parameters to improve the localization accuracy. The comparison experiments on liver detection in 226 abdominal CT volumes demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods. Our system takes less than a second to accurately detect the liver in a volume.

Tutorial on Biostatistics: Linear Regression Analysis of Continuous Correlated Eye Data.

PubMed

Ying, Gui-Shuang; Maguire, Maureen G; Glynn, Robert; Rosner, Bernard

2017-04-01

To describe and demonstrate appropriate linear regression methods for analyzing correlated continuous eye data. We describe several approaches to regression analysis involving both eyes, including mixed effects and marginal models under various covariance structures to account for inter-eye correlation. We demonstrate, with SAS statistical software, applications in a study comparing baseline refractive error between one eye with choroidal neovascularization (CNV) and the unaffected fellow eye, and in a study determining factors associated with visual field in the elderly. When refractive error from both eyes were analyzed with standard linear regression without accounting for inter-eye correlation (adjusting for demographic and ocular covariates), the difference between eyes with CNV and fellow eyes was 0.15 diopters (D; 95% confidence interval, CI -0.03 to 0.32D, p = 0.10). Using a mixed effects model or a marginal model, the estimated difference was the same but with narrower 95% CI (0.01 to 0.28D, p = 0.03). Standard regression for visual field data from both eyes provided biased estimates of standard error (generally underestimated) and smaller p-values, while analysis of the worse eye provided larger p-values than mixed effects models and marginal models. In research involving both eyes, ignoring inter-eye correlation can lead to invalid inferences. Analysis using only right or left eyes is valid, but decreases power. Worse-eye analysis can provide less power and biased estimates of effect. Mixed effects or marginal models using the eye as the unit of analysis should be used to appropriately account for inter-eye correlation and maximize power and precision.

A simple approach to ignoring irrelevant variables by population decoding based on multisensory neurons

PubMed Central

Kim, HyungGoo R.; Pitkow, Xaq; Angelaki, Dora E.

2016-01-01

Sensory input reflects events that occur in the environment, but multiple events may be confounded in sensory signals. For example, under many natural viewing conditions, retinal image motion reflects some combination of self-motion and movement of objects in the world. To estimate one stimulus event and ignore others, the brain can perform marginalization operations, but the neural bases of these operations are poorly understood. Using computational modeling, we examine how multisensory signals may be processed to estimate the direction of self-motion (i.e., heading) and to marginalize out effects of object motion. Multisensory neurons represent heading based on both visual and vestibular inputs and come in two basic types: “congruent” and “opposite” cells. Congruent cells have matched heading tuning for visual and vestibular cues and have been linked to perceptual benefits of cue integration during heading discrimination. Opposite cells have mismatched visual and vestibular heading preferences and are ill-suited for cue integration. We show that decoding a mixed population of congruent and opposite cells substantially reduces errors in heading estimation caused by object motion. In addition, we present a general formulation of an optimal linear decoding scheme that approximates marginalization and can be implemented biologically by simple reinforcement learning mechanisms. We also show that neural response correlations induced by task-irrelevant variables may greatly exceed intrinsic noise correlations. Overall, our findings suggest a general computational strategy by which neurons with mismatched tuning for two different sensory cues may be decoded to perform marginalization operations that dissociate possible causes of sensory inputs. PMID:27334948

State estimator for multisensor systems with irregular sampling and time-varying delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peñarrocha, I.; Sanchis, R.; Romero, J. A.

2012-08-01

This article addresses the state estimation in linear time-varying systems with several sensors with different availability, randomly sampled in time and whose measurements have a time-varying delay. The approach is based on a modification of the Kalman filter with the negative-time measurement update strategy, avoiding running back the full standard Kalman filter, the use of full augmented order models or the use of reorganisation techniques, leading to a lower implementation cost algorithm. The update equations are run every time a new measurement is available, independently of the time when it was taken. The approach is useful for networked control systems, systems with long delays and scarce measurements and for out-of-sequence measurements.

Estimating the Effects of the Terminal Area Productivity Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, David A.; Kostiuk, Peter F.; Hemm, Robert V., Jr.; Wingrove, Earl R., III; Shapiro, Gerald

1997-01-01

The report describes methods and results of an analysis of the technical and economic benefits of the systems to be developed in the NASA Terminal Area Productivity (TAP) program. A runway capacity model using parameters that reflect the potential impact of the TAP technologies is described. The runway capacity model feeds airport specific models which are also described. The capacity estimates are used with a queuing model to calculate aircraft delays, and TAP benefits are determined by calculating the savings due to reduced delays. The report includes benefit estimates for Boston Logan and Detroit Wayne County airports. An appendix includes a description and listing of the runway capacity model.

Transient Stability Output Margin Estimation Based on Energy Function Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miwa, Natsuki; Tanaka, Kazuyuki

In this paper, a new method of estimating critical generation margin (CGM) in power systems is proposed from the viewpoint of transient stability diagnostic. The proposed method has the capability to directly compute the stability limit output for a given contingency based on transient energy function method (TEF). Since CGM can be directly obtained by the limit output using estimated P-θ curves and is easy to understand, it is more useful rather than conventional critical clearing time (CCT) of energy function method. The proposed method can also estimate CGM as its negative value that means unstable in present load profile, then negative CGM can be directly utilized as generator output restriction. The proposed method is verified its accuracy and fast solution ability by applying to simple 3-machine model and IEEJ EAST10-machine standard model. Furthermore the useful application to severity ranking of transient stability for a lot of contingency cases is discussed by using CGM.

Surface Craft Motion Parameter Estimation Using Multipath Delay Measurements from Hydrophones

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-12-01

the sensor is cd . The slant range of the source from the sensor at time t is given by 21222 ])([)( cc RtvtR +−= τ ( 1 ) where 2122 ])[( crtc dhhR...Surface Craft Motion Parameter Estimation Using Multipath Delay Measurements from Hydrophones Kam W. Lo # 1 and Brian G. Ferguson #2 # Maritime...Eveleigh, NSW 2015 Australia 1 kam.lo@dsto.defence.gov.au 2 brian.ferguson@dsto.defence.gov.au Abstract— An equation-error (EE) method is

Beyond Happiness and Satisfaction: Toward Well-Being Indices Based on Stated Preference*

PubMed Central

Benjamin, Daniel J.; Kimball, Miles S.; Heffetz, Ori; Szembrot, Nichole

2014-01-01

This paper proposes foundations and a methodology for survey-based tracking of well-being. First, we develop a theory in which utility depends on “fundamental aspects” of well-being, measurable with surveys. Second, drawing from psychologists, philosophers, and economists, we compile a comprehensive list of such aspects. Third, we demonstrate our proposed method for estimating the aspects’ relative marginal utilities—a necessary input for constructing an individual-level well-being index—by asking ~4,600 U.S. survey respondents to state their preference between pairs of aspect bundles. We estimate high relative marginal utilities for aspects related to family, health, security, values, freedom, happiness, and life satisfaction. PMID:25404760

Can Women Have Children and a Career? IV Evidence from IVF Treatments.

PubMed

Lundborg, Petter; Plug, Erik; Rasmussen, Astrid Wurtz

2017-06-01

This paper introduces a new IV strategy based on IVF (in vitro fertilization) induced fertility variation among childless women to estimate the causal effect of having children on their career. For this purpose, we use administrative data on IVF treated women in Denmark. Because observed chances of IVF success do not depend on labor market histories, IVF treatment success provides a plausible instrument for childbearing. Our IV estimates indicate that fertility effects on earnings are: (i) negative, large, and long-lasting; (ii) driven by fertility effects on hourly earnings and not so much on labor supply; and (iii) much stronger at the extensive margin than at the intensive margin.

Efficient management of marine resources in conflict: an empirical study of marine sand mining, Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Tae-Goun

2009-10-01

This article develops a dynamic model of efficient use of exhaustible marine sand resources in the context of marine mining externalities. The classical Hotelling extraction model is applied to sand mining in Ongjin, Korea and extended to include the estimated marginal external costs that mining imposes on marine fisheries. The socially efficient sand extraction plan is compared with the extraction paths suggested by scientific research. If marginal environmental costs are correctly estimated, the developed efficient extraction plan considering the resource rent may increase the social welfare and reduce the conflicts among the marine sand resource users. The empirical results are interpreted with an emphasis on guidelines for coastal resource management policy.

Velocity Model for CO2 Sequestration in the Southeastern United States Atlantic Continental Margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ollmann, J.; Knapp, C. C.; Almutairi, K.; Almayahi, D.; Knapp, J. H.

2017-12-01

The sequestration of carbon dioxide (CO2) is emerging as a major player in offsetting anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. With 40% of the United States' anthropogenic CO2 emissions originating in the southeast, characterizing potential CO2 sequestration sites is vital to reducing the United States' emissions. The goal of this research project, funded by the Department of Energy (DOE), is to estimate the CO2 storage potential for the Southeastern United States Atlantic Continental Margin. Previous studies find storage potential in the Atlantic continental margin. Up to 16 Gt and 175 Gt of storage potential are estimated for the Upper Cretaceous and Lower Cretaceous formations, respectively. Considering 2.12 Mt of CO2 are emitted per year by the United States, substantial storage potential is present in the Southeastern United States Atlantic Continental Margin. In order to produce a time-depth relationship, a velocity model must be constructed. This velocity model is created using previously collected seismic reflection, refraction, and well data in the study area. Seismic reflection horizons were extrapolated using well log data from the COST GE-1 well. An interpolated seismic section was created using these seismic horizons. A velocity model will be made using P-wave velocities from seismic reflection data. Once the time-depth conversion is complete, the depths of stratigraphic units in the seismic refraction data will be compared to the newly assigned depths of the seismic horizons. With a lack of well control in the study area, the addition of stratigraphic unit depths from 171 seismic refraction recording stations provides adequate data to tie to the depths of picked seismic horizons. Using this velocity model, the seismic reflection data can be presented in depth in order to estimate the thickness and storage potential of CO2 reservoirs in the Southeastern United States Atlantic Continental Margin.

Reconstruction of ensembles of coupled time-delay systems from time series.

PubMed

Sysoev, I V; Prokhorov, M D; Ponomarenko, V I; Bezruchko, B P

2014-06-01

We propose a method to recover from time series the parameters of coupled time-delay systems and the architecture of couplings between them. The method is based on a reconstruction of model delay-differential equations and estimation of statistical significance of couplings. It can be applied to networks composed of nonidentical nodes with an arbitrary number of unidirectional and bidirectional couplings. We test our method on chaotic and periodic time series produced by model equations of ensembles of diffusively coupled time-delay systems in the presence of noise, and apply it to experimental time series obtained from electronic oscillators with delayed feedback coupled by resistors.

Exact test-based approach for equivalence test with parameter margin.

PubMed

Cassie Dong, Xiaoyu; Bian, Yuanyuan; Tsong, Yi; Wang, Tianhua

2017-01-01

The equivalence test has a wide range of applications in pharmaceutical statistics which we need to test for the similarity between two groups. In recent years, the equivalence test has been used in assessing the analytical similarity between a proposed biosimilar product and a reference product. More specifically, the mean values of the two products for a given quality attribute are compared against an equivalence margin in the form of ±f × σ R , where ± f × σ R is a function of the reference variability. In practice, this margin is unknown and is estimated from the sample as ±f × S R . If we use this estimated margin with the classic t-test statistic on the equivalence test for the means, both Type I and Type II error rates may inflate. To resolve this issue, we develop an exact-based test method and compare this method with other proposed methods, such as the Wald test, the constrained Wald test, and the Generalized Pivotal Quantity (GPQ) in terms of Type I error rate and power. Application of those methods on data analysis is also provided in this paper. This work focuses on the development and discussion of the general statistical methodology and is not limited to the application of analytical similarity.

Finite-time robust stabilization of uncertain delayed neural networks with discontinuous activations via delayed feedback control.

PubMed

Wang, Leimin; Shen, Yi; Sheng, Yin

2016-04-01

This paper is concerned with the finite-time robust stabilization of delayed neural networks (DNNs) in the presence of discontinuous activations and parameter uncertainties. By using the nonsmooth analysis and control theory, a delayed controller is designed to realize the finite-time robust stabilization of DNNs with discontinuous activations and parameter uncertainties, and the upper bound of the settling time functional for stabilization is estimated. Finally, two examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Numerical simulation of time delay Interferometry for LISA with one arm dysfunctional

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ni, Wei-Tou; Dhurandhar, Sanjeev V.; Nayak, K. Rajesh; Wang, Gang

In order to attain the requisite sensitivity for LISA, laser frequency noise must be suppressed below the secondary noises such as the optical path noise, acceleration noise etc. In a previous paper(a), we have found an infinite family of second generation analytic solutions of time delay interferometry and estimated the laser noise due to residual time delay semi-analytically from orbit perturbations due to earth. Since other planets and solar-system bodies also perturb the orbits of LISA spacecraft and affect the time delay interferometry, we simulate the time delay numerically in this paper. To conform to the actual LISA planning, we have worked out a set of 10-year optimized mission orbits of LISA spacecraft using CGC3 ephemeris framework(b). Here we use this numerical solution to calculate the residual errors in the second generation solutions upto n 3 of our previous paper, and compare with the semi-analytic error estimate. The accuracy of this calculation is better than 1 m (or 30 ns). (a) S. V. Dhurandhar, K. Rajesh Nayak and J.-Y. Vinet, time delay Interferometry for LISA with one arm dysfunctional (b) W.-T. Ni and G. Wang, Orbit optimization for 10-year LISA mission orbit starting at 21 June, 2021 using CGC3 ephemeris framework

Obtaining reliable phase-gradient delays from otoacoustic emission data.

PubMed

Shera, Christopher A; Bergevin, Christopher

2012-08-01

Reflection-source otoacoustic emission phase-gradient delays are widely used to obtain noninvasive estimates of cochlear function and properties, such as the sharpness of mechanical tuning and its variation along the length of the cochlear partition. Although different data-processing strategies are known to yield different delay estimates and trends, their relative reliability has not been established. This paper uses in silico experiments to evaluate six methods for extracting delay trends from reflection-source otoacoustic emissions (OAEs). The six methods include both previously published procedures (e.g., phase smoothing, energy-weighting, data exclusion based on signal-to-noise ratio) and novel strategies (e.g., peak-picking, all-pass factorization). Although some of the methods perform well (e.g., peak-picking), others introduce substantial bias (e.g., phase smoothing) and are not recommended. In addition, since standing waves caused by multiple internal reflection can complicate the interpretation and compromise the application of OAE delays, this paper develops and evaluates two promising signal-processing strategies, the first based on time-frequency filtering using the continuous wavelet transform and the second on cepstral analysis, for separating the direct emission from its subsequent reflections. Altogether, the results help to resolve previous disagreements about the frequency dependence of human OAE delays and the sharpness of cochlear tuning while providing useful analysis methods for future studies.

14 CFR 1214.805 - Unforeseen customer delay.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... problem pose a threat of delay to the Shuttle launch schedule or critical off-line activities, NASA shall... availability of facilities, equipment, and personnel. In requesting NASA to make such special efforts, the customer shall agree to reimburse NASA the estimated additional cost incurred. ...

14 CFR 1214.805 - Unforeseen customer delay.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... problem pose a threat of delay to the Shuttle launch schedule or critical off-line activities, NASA shall... availability of facilities, equipment, and personnel. In requesting NASA to make such special efforts, the customer shall agree to reimburse NASA the estimated additional cost incurred. ...

14 CFR 1214.805 - Unforeseen customer delay.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... problem pose a threat of delay to the Shuttle launch schedule or critical off-line activities, NASA shall... availability of facilities, equipment, and personnel. In requesting NASA to make such special efforts, the customer shall agree to reimburse NASA the estimated additional cost incurred. ...

Source Localization Using Wireless Sensor Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-06-01

performance of the hybrid SI/ML estimation method. A wireless sensor network is simulated in NS-2 to study the network throughput, delay and jitter...indicate that the wireless sensor network has low delay and can support fast information exchange needed in counter-sniper applications.

Therapeutic outcomes of endoscopic submucosal dissection of differentiated early gastric cancer in a Western endoscopy setting (with video).

PubMed

Emura, Fabian; Mejía, Juan; Donneys, Alberto; Ricaurte, Orlando; Sabbagh, Luis; Giraldo-Cadavid, Luis; Oda, Ichiro; Saito, Yutaka; Osorio, Camilo

2015-11-01

Large multicenter gastric cancer endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) studies conducted at major Japanese institutions have reported en bloc resection, en bloc tumor-free margin resection, and curative resection rates of 92.7% to 96.1%, 82.6% to 94.5%, and 73.6% to 85.4%, respectively, with delayed bleeding and perforation rates of 0.6% to 6.0% and 3.6% to 4.7%, respectively. Although ESD is currently an alternative treatment in some countries, particularly in Asia, it remains uncertain whether ESD therapeutic outcomes in Western endoscopy settings can be comparable to those achieved in Japan. To evaluate the ESD therapeutic outcomes for differentiated early gastric cancer (EGC) in a Western endoscopy setting. Consecutive case series performed by an expertly trained Western endoscopist. Fifty-three patients with 54 lesions. ESD for early gastric cancers (T1) satisfying expanded inclusion criteria. En bloc resection, en bloc tumor-free margin resection, and curative resection rates were 98%, 93%, and 83%, respectively. The delayed bleeding rate was 7%, and the perforation rate was 4%. The mean patient age was 67 years, and the mean tumor size was 19.8 mm, with 54% of the lesions located in the lesser curvature. The median procedure time was 61 minutes, with ESD procedures 60 minutes or longer associated with submucosal fibrosis (P < .001) and tumor size 25 mm or larger (P = .03). In every ESD procedure, both circumferential incision and submucosal dissection were performed by using a single knife. Two of the 4 delayed bleeding cases required surgery, and all perforations were successfully managed by using endoscopic clips. Long-term outcome data are currently unavailable. ESD for differentiated EGC resulted in favorable therapeutic outcomes in a Western endoscopy setting comparable to those achieved at major Japanese institutions. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of direction of rotation in continuous and discontinuous 8 hour shift systems

PubMed Central

Tucker, P.; Smith, L.; Macdonald, I.; Folkard, S.

2000-01-01

OBJECTIVES—Previous research has produced conflicting evidence on the relative merits of advancing and delaying shift systems. The current study assessed the effects of the direction of shift rotation within 8 hour systems, upon a range of measures including sleep, on shift alertness, physical health, and psychological wellbeing.
METHODS—An abridged version of the standard shiftwork index which included retrospective alertness ratings was completed by four groups of industrial shiftworkers on relatively rapidly rotating 8 hour systems (n=611). Two groups worked continuous systems that were either advancing or delaying; the other two groups worked discontinuous systems that were either advancing or delaying.
RESULTS—Few effects were found of direction of rotation on chronic measures of health and wellbeing, even when the systems incorporated "quick returns" (a break of only 8 hours when changing from one shift to another). This was despite the use of measures previously shown to be sensitive to the effects of a broad range of features of shift systems. However, advancing continuous systems seemed to be associated with marginally steeper declines in alertness across the shift (F (3,1080)=2.87, p<0.05). They were also associated with shorter sleeps between morning shifts (F (1,404)=4.01, p<0.05), but longer sleeps between afternoons (F (1,424)=4.16, p<0.05).
CONCLUSIONS—The absence of negative effects of advancing shifts upon the chronic outcome measures accorded with previous evidence that advancing shifts may not be as harmful as early research indicated. However, this interpretation is tempered by the possibility that difficult shift systems self select those workers most able to cope with their deleterious effects. The presence of quick returns in advancing continuous systems seemed to impact upon some of the acute measures such as duration of sleep, although the associated effects on alertness seemed to be marginal.


Keywords: shift rotation; health; alertness PMID:10984340

Corrections of stratified tropospheric delays in SAR interferometry: Validation with global atmospheric models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doin, Marie-Pierre; Lasserre, Cécile; Peltzer, Gilles; Cavalié, Olivier; Doubre, Cécile

2010-05-01

The main limiting factor on the accuracy of Interferometric SAR measurements (InSAR) comes from phase propagation delays through the troposphere. The delay can be divided into a stratified component, which correlates with the topography and often dominates the tropospheric signal, and a turbulent component. We use Global Atmospheric Models (GAM) to estimate the stratified phase delay and delay-elevation ratio at epochs of SAR acquisitions, and compare them to observed phase delay derived from SAR interferograms. Three test areas are selected with different geographic and climatic environments and with large SAR archive available. The Lake Mead, Nevada, USA is covered by 79 ERS1/2 and ENVISAT acquisitions, the Haiyuan Fault area, Gansu, China, by 24 ERS1/2 acquisitions, and the Afar region, Republic of Djibouti, by 91 Radarsat acquisitions. The hydrostatic and wet stratified delays are computed from GAM as a function of atmospheric pressure P, temperature T, and water vapor partial pressure e vertical profiles. The hydrostatic delay, which depends on ratio P/T, varies significantly at low elevation and cannot be neglected. The wet component of the delay depends mostly on the near surface specific humidity. GAM predicted delay-elevation ratios are in good agreement with the ratios derived from InSAR data away from deforming zones. Both estimations of the delay-elevation ratio can thus be used to perform a first order correction of the observed interferometric phase to retrieve a ground motion signal of low amplitude. We also demonstrate that aliasing of daily and seasonal variations in the stratified delay due to uneven sampling of SAR data significantly bias InSAR data stacks or time series produced after temporal smoothing. In all three test cases, the InSAR data stacks or smoothed time series present a residual stratified delay of the order of the expected deformation signal. In all cases, correcting interferograms from the stratified delay removes all these biases. We quantify the standard error associated with the correction of the stratified atmospheric delay. It varies from one site to another depending on the prevailing atmospheric conditions, but remains bounded by the standard deviation of the daily fluctuations of the stratified delay around the seasonal average. Finally we suggest that the phase delay correction can potentially be improved by introducing a non-linear dependence to the elevation derived from GAM.

Corrections of stratified tropospheric delays in SAR interferometry: Validation with global atmospheric models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doin, M.-P.; Lasserre, C.; Peltzer, G.; Cavalié, O.; Doubre, C.

2009-09-01

The main limiting factor on the accuracy of Interferometric SAR measurements (InSAR) comes from phase propagation delays through the troposphere. The delay can be divided into a stratified component, which correlates with the topography and often dominates the tropospheric signal, and a turbulent component. We use Global Atmospheric Models (GAM) to estimate the stratified phase delay and delay-elevation ratio at epochs of SAR acquisitions, and compare them to observed phase delay derived from SAR interferograms. Three test areas are selected with different geographic and climatic environments and with large SAR archive available. The Lake Mead, Nevada, USA is covered by 79 ERS1/2 and ENVISAT acquisitions, the Haiyuan Fault area, Gansu, China, by 24 ERS1/2 acquisitions, and the Afar region, Republic of Djibouti, by 91 Radarsat acquisitions. The hydrostatic and wet stratified delays are computed from GAM as a function of atmospheric pressure P, temperature T, and water vapor partial pressure e vertical profiles. The hydrostatic delay, which depends on ratio P/ T, varies significantly at low elevation and cannot be neglected. The wet component of the delay depends mostly on the near surface specific humidity. GAM predicted delay-elevation ratios are in good agreement with the ratios derived from InSAR data away from deforming zones. Both estimations of the delay-elevation ratio can thus be used to perform a first order correction of the observed interferometric phase to retrieve a ground motion signal of low amplitude. We also demonstrate that aliasing of daily and seasonal variations in the stratified delay due to uneven sampling of SAR data significantly bias InSAR data stacks or time series produced after temporal smoothing. In all three test cases, the InSAR data stacks or smoothed time series present a residual stratified delay of the order of the expected deformation signal. In all cases, correcting interferograms from the stratified delay removes all these biases. We quantify the standard error associated with the correction of the stratified atmospheric delay. It varies from one site to another depending on the prevailing atmospheric conditions, but remains bounded by the standard deviation of the daily fluctuations of the stratified delay around the seasonal average. Finally we suggest that the phase delay correction can potentially be improved by introducing a non-linear dependence to the elevation derived from GAM.

Accuracy and Variability of Item Parameter Estimates from Marginal Maximum a Posteriori Estimation and Bayesian Inference via Gibbs Samplers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wu, Yi-Fang

2015-01-01

Item response theory (IRT) uses a family of statistical models for estimating stable characteristics of items and examinees and defining how these characteristics interact in describing item and test performance. With a focus on the three-parameter logistic IRT (Birnbaum, 1968; Lord, 1980) model, the current study examines the accuracy and…

Analysis of Longitudinal Studies With Repeated Outcome Measures: Adjusting for Time-Dependent Confounding Using Conventional Methods.

PubMed

Keogh, Ruth H; Daniel, Rhian M; VanderWeele, Tyler J; Vansteelandt, Stijn

2018-05-01

Estimation of causal effects of time-varying exposures using longitudinal data is a common problem in epidemiology. When there are time-varying confounders, which may include past outcomes, affected by prior exposure, standard regression methods can lead to bias. Methods such as inverse probability weighted estimation of marginal structural models have been developed to address this problem. However, in this paper we show how standard regression methods can be used, even in the presence of time-dependent confounding, to estimate the total effect of an exposure on a subsequent outcome by controlling appropriately for prior exposures, outcomes, and time-varying covariates. We refer to the resulting estimation approach as sequential conditional mean models (SCMMs), which can be fitted using generalized estimating equations. We outline this approach and describe how including propensity score adjustment is advantageous. We compare the causal effects being estimated using SCMMs and marginal structural models, and we compare the two approaches using simulations. SCMMs enable more precise inferences, with greater robustness against model misspecification via propensity score adjustment, and easily accommodate continuous exposures and interactions. A new test for direct effects of past exposures on a subsequent outcome is described.

Delay Times From Clustered Multi-Channel Cross Correlation and Simulated Annealing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creager, K. C.; Sambridge, M. S.

2004-12-01

Several techniques exist to estimate relative delay times of seismic phases based on the assumption that the waveforms observed at several stations can be expressed as a common waveform that has been time shifted and distorted by random uncorrelated noise. We explore the more general problem of estimating the relative delay times for regional or even global distributions of seismometers in cases where waveforms vary systematically across the array. The estimation of relative delay times is formulated as a global optimization of the weighted sum of squares of cross correlations of each seismogram pair evaluated at the corresponding difference in their relative delay times. As there are many local minima in this penalty function, a simulated annealing algorithm is used to obtain a solution. The weights depend strongly on the separation distance among seismogram pairs as well as a measure of the similarity of waveforms. Thus, seismograph pairs that are physically close to each other and have similar waveforms are expected to be well aligned while those with dissimilar waveforms or large separation distances are severely down-weighted and thus need not be well aligned. As a result noisy seismograms, which are not similar to other seismograms, are down-weighted so they do not adversely effect the relative delay times of other seismograms. Finally, natural clusters of seismograms are determined from the weight matrix. Examples of aligning a few hundred P and PKP waveforms from a broadband global array and from a mixed broadband and short-period continental-scale array will be shown. While this method has applications in many situations, it may be especially useful for arrays such as the EarthScope Bigfoot Array.

Willing to Wait: Elevated Reward-Processing EEG Activity Associated with a Greater Preference for Larger-But-Delayed Rewards

PubMed Central

Pornpattananangkul, Narun; Nusslock, Robin

2016-01-01

While almost everyone discounts the value of future rewards over immediate rewards, people differ in their so-called delay-discounting. One of the several factors that may explain individual differences in delay-discounting is reward-processing. To study individual-differences in reward-processing, however, one needs to consider the heterogeneity of neural-activity at each reward-processing stage. Here using EEG, we separated reward-related neural activity into distinct reward-anticipation and reward-outcome stages using time-frequency characteristics. Thirty-seven individuals completed a behavioral delay-discounting task. Reward-processing EEG activity was assessed using a separate reward-learning task, called a reward time-estimation task. During this task, participants were instructed to estimate time duration and were provided performance feedback on a trial-by-trial basis. Participants received monetary-reward for accurate-performance on Reward trials, but not on No-Reward trials. Reward trials, relative to No-Reward trials, enhanced EEG activity during both reward-anticipation stage (including, cued-locked delta power during cue-evaluation and pre-feedback alpha suppression during feedback-anticipation) and at the reward-outcome stage (including, feedback-locked delta, theta and beta power). Moreover, all of these EEG indices correlated with behavioral performance in the time-estimation task, suggesting their essential roles in learning and adjusting performance to maximize winnings in a reward-learning situation. Importantly, enhanced EEG power during Reward trials for 1) pre-feedback alpha suppression, 2) feedback-locked theta and 3) feedback-locked beta was associated with a greater preference for larger-but-delayed rewards. Results highlight the association between a stronger preference toward larger-but-delayed rewards and enhanced reward-processing. Moreover, our reward-processing EEG indices detail the specific stages of reward-processing where these associations occur. PMID:27477630

The Policy Implications of the Cost Structure of Home Health Agencies

PubMed Central

Mukamel, Dana B; Fortinsky, Richard H; White, Alan; Harrington, Charlene; White, Laura M; Ngo-Metzger, Quyen

2014-01-01

Purpose To examine the cost structure of home health agencies by estimating an empirical cost function for those that are Medicare-certified, ten years following the implementation of prospective payment. Design and Methods 2010 national Medicare cost report data for certified home health agencies were merged with case-mix information from the Outcome and Assessment Information Set (OASIS). We estimated a fully interacted (by tax status) hybrid cost function for 7,064 agencies and calculated marginal costs as percent of total costs for all variables. Results The home health industry is dominated by for-profit agencies, which tend to be newer than the non-profit agencies and to have higher average costs per patient but lower costs per visit. For-profit agencies tend to have smaller scale operations and different cost structures, and are less likely to be affiliated with chains. Our estimates suggest diseconomies of scale, zero marginal cost for contracting with therapy workers, and a positive marginal cost for contracting with nurses, when controlling for quality. Implications Our findings suggest that efficiencies may be achieved by promoting non-profit, smaller agencies, with fewer contract nursing staff. This conclusion should be tested further in future studies that address some of the limitations of our study. PMID:24949224

National Airspace System Delay Estimation Using Weather Weighted Traffic Counts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chatterji, Gano B.; Sridhar, Banavar

2004-01-01

Assessment of National Airspace System performance, which is usually measured in terms of delays resulting from the application of traffic flow management initiatives in response to weather conditions, volume, equipment outages and runway conditions, is needed both for guiding flow control decisions during the day of operations and for post operations analysis. Comparison of the actual delay, resulting from the traffic flow management initiatives, with the expected delay, based on traffic demand and other conditions, provides the assessment of the National Airspace System performance. This paper provides a method for estimating delay using the expected traffic demand and weather. In order to identify the cause of delays, 517 days of National Airspace System delay data reported by the Federal Aviation Administration s Operations Network were analyzed. This analysis shows that weather is the most important causal factor for delays followed by equipment and runway delays. Guided by these results, the concept of weather weighted traffic counts as a measure of system delay is described. Examples are given to show the variation of these counts as a function of time of the day. The various datasets, consisting of aircraft position data, enroute severe weather data, surface wind speed and visibility data, reported delay data and number of aircraft handled by the Centers data, and their sources are described. The procedure for selecting reference days on which traffic was minimally impacted by weather is described. Different traffic demand on each reference day of the week, determined by analysis of 42 days of traffic and delay data, was used as the expected traffic demand for each day of the week. Next, the method for computing the weather weighted traffic counts using the expected traffic demand, derived from reference days, and the expanded regions around severe weather cells is discussed. It is shown via a numerical example that this approach improves the dynamic range of the weather weighted traffic counts considerably. Time histories of these new weather weighted traffic counts are used for synthesizing two statistical features, six histogram features and six time domain features. In addition to these enroute weather features, two surface weather features of number of major airports in the United States with high mean winds and low mean visibility are also described. A least squares procedure for establishing a functional relation between the features, using combinations of these features, and system delays is explored using 36 days of data. Best correlations between the estimated delays using the functional relation and the actual delays provided by the Operations Network are obtained with two different combinations of features: 1) six time domain features of weather weighted traffic counts plus two surface weather features, and 2) six histogram features and mean of weather weighted traffic counts along with the two surface weather features. Correlation coefficient values of 0.73 and 0.83 were found in these two instances.

Prediction of margin involvement and local recurrence after skin-sparing and simple mastectomy.

PubMed

Al-Himdani, S; Timbrell, S; Tan, K T; Morris, J; Bundred, N J

2016-07-01

Skin-sparing mastectomy (SSM) facilitates immediate breast reconstruction. We investigated locoregional recurrence rates after SSM compared with simple mastectomy and the factors predicting oncological failure. Patients with early breast cancer that underwent mastectomy between 2000 and 2005 at a single institution were studied to ascertain local and systemic recurrence rates between groups. Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank test were used to evaluate disease-free survival. Patients (n = 577) underwent simple mastectomy (80%) or SSM (20%). Median follow up was 80 months. Patients undergoing SSM were of younger average age, less often had involved lymph nodes (22% vs 44%, p < 0.001), more often had DCIS present (79% vs 53%, p < 0.001) and involved margins (29% vs 15%, p = 0.001). Involved surgical margins were associated with large size (p = 0.001). The 8-year local recurrence (LR) rates were 7.9% for SSM and 5% for simple mastectomy respectively (p = 0.35). Predictors of locoregional recurrence were lymph node involvement (HR 8.0, for >4 nodes, p < 0.001) and involved surgical margins (HR 3.3, p = 0.002). In node negative patients, SSM was a predictor of locoregional recurrence (HR 4.8 [1.1, 19.9], p = 0.033). Delayed reconstruction is more appropriate for node positive early breast cancer after post-mastectomy radiotherapy. Re-excision of involved margins is essential to prevent local recurrence after mastectomy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd, BASO ~ the Association for Cancer Surgery, and the European Society of Surgical Oncology. All rights reserved.

A comparison of the accuracy of patterns processed from an inlay casting wax, an auto-polymerized resin and a light-cured resin pattern material.

PubMed

Rajagopal, Praveen; Chitre, Vidya; Aras, Meena A

2012-01-01

Traditionally, inlay casting waxes have been used to fabricate patterns for castings. Newer resin pattern materials offer greater rigidity and strength, allowing easier laboratory and intraoral adjustment without the fear of pattern damage. They also claim to possess a greater dimensional stability when compared to inlay wax. This study attempted to determine and compare the marginal accuracy of patterns fabricated from an inlay casting wax, an autopolymerized pattern resin and a light polymerized pattern resin on storage off the die for varying time intervals. Ten patterns each were fabricated from an inlay casting wax (GC Corp., Tokyo, Japan), an autopolymerized resin pattern material (Pattern resin, GC Corp, Tokyo, Japan) and a light-cured resin pattern material (Palavit GLC, Hereaus Kulzer GmbH, Germany). The completed patterns were stored off the die at room temperature. Marginal gaps were evaluated by reseating the patterns on their respective dies and observing it under a stereomicroscope at 1, 12, and 24 h intervals after pattern fabrication. The results revealed that the inlay wax showed a significantly greater marginal discrepancy at the 12 and 24 h intervals. The autopolymerized resin showed an initial (at 1 h) marginal discrepancy slightly greater than inlay wax, but showed a significantly less marginal gap (as compared to inlay wax) at the other two time intervals. The light-cured resin proved to be significantly more dimensionally stable, and showed minimal change during the storage period. The resin pattern materials studied, undergo a significantly less dimensional change than the inlay waxes on prolonged storage. They would possibly be a better alternative to inlay wax in situations requiring high precision or when delayed investment (more than 1 h) of patterns can be expected.

Long-Term Retrospective Clinical and Radiographic Follow-up of 205 Brånemark System Mk III TiUnite Implants Submitted to Either Immediate or Delayed Loading.

PubMed

Imburgia, Mario; Del Fabbro, Massimo

2015-10-01

Studies are needed to evaluate long-term performance of immediately loaded implants with moderately rough surface. This retrospective study evaluated long-term survival and periimplant soft and hard tissue conditions in patients treated with TiUnite implants. Forty-one consecutive patients (mean age, 52.6 years) received 205 Brånemark System Mk III TiUnite implants (145 maxillary, 60 mandibular). The indication was single tooth (n = 7 implants), partial (n = 94), or full arches (n = 104). One hundred thirteen implants were immediately loaded. Cumulative survival rate (CSR) of implants was assessed. Long-term marginal bone remodeling, probing pocket depth (PPD), and periimplant mucosa conditions were assessed. Follow-up averaged 8.8 years (range, 6.6-10.6 years). Eight implants in 5 patients failed. CSR was 96.1% (implant basis) and 87.8% (patient basis) up to 10 years. At the longest follow-up, bone loss averaged 0.43 ± 1.15 mm (n = 173), PPD averaged 3.64 ± 0.74 mm, and periimplant mucosa was healthy in 74.6% of cases. Furthermore, 50.3% and 35.5% of implants scored negative for plaque and bleeding, respectively. No significant difference in CSR and hard and soft tissue conditions was found in the long term between immediately and delayed loaded implants. Implants with TiUnite surface demonstrated excellent long-term survival, marginal bone response, and soft tissue conditions, despite a nonoptimal level of oral hygiene.

Local recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma in the tumor blood drainage area following radiofrequency ablation

PubMed Central

HIROOKA, MASASHI; OCHI, HIRONORI; KOIZUMI, YOHEI; TOKUMOTO, YOSHIO; HIRAOKA, ATSUSHI; KUMAGI, TERU; ABE, MASANORI; TANAKA, HIROAKI; HIASA, YOICHI

2014-01-01

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common malignant tumors worldwide. HCC is generally considered to spread via the bloodstream and local recurrence often occurs in the blood drainage area determined by computed tomography during hepatic arteriography (CTHA), despite complete ablation of the primary nodule. This study was conducted in order to prospectively assess the rate of local recurrence in the blood drainage area depicted by delayed-phase CTHA. The participants comprised 364 consecutive patients (260 men and 104 women; mean age, 67.4±8.6 years), enrolled between April, 2002 and December, 2011. The participants were divided into two groups, according to whether the ablation area covered the entire blood drainage area as defined by delayed-phase CTHA (group A) or not (group B). Local tumor progression was compared between the two groups. The median time to recurrence was significantly shorter for group B (434 days) compared to that for group A (1,474 days; P=0.0037). The cumulative local recurrence rates for group A were 0, 0 and 1.5% at 1, 3 and 5 years postoperatively, respectively, whereas the recurrence rates for group B were 3.8, 17.0 and 22.8% at 1, 3 and 5 years, respectively (P<0.0001). In conclusion, the safety margin for radiofrequency ablation should be defined as the blood drainage area and ablation should aim at acquiring adequate safety margins. PMID:24649330

Prospects for UT1 Measurements from VLBI Intensive Sessions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boehm, Johannes; Nilsson, Tobias; Schuh, Harald

2010-01-01

Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) Intensives are one-hour single baseline sessions to provide Universal Time (UT1) in near real-time up to a delay of three days if a site is not e-transferring the observational data. Due to the importance of UT1 estimates for the prediction of Earth orientation parameters, as well as any kind of navigation on Earth or in space, there is not only the need to improve the timeliness of the results but also their accuracy. We identify the asymmetry of the tropospheric delays as the major error source, and we provide two strategies to improve the results, in particular of those Intensives which include the station Tsukuba in Japan with its large tropospheric variation. We find an improvement when (1) using ray-traced delays from a numerical weather model, and (2) when estimating tropospheric gradients within the analysis of Intensive sessions. The improvement is shown in terms of reduction of rms of length-of-day estimates w.r.t. those derived from Global Positioning System observations

Terminal Area Productivity Airport Wind Analysis and Chicago O'Hare Model Description

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hemm, Robert; Shapiro, Gerald

1998-01-01

This paper describes two results from a continuing effort to provide accurate cost-benefit analyses of the NASA Terminal Area Productivity (TAP) program technologies. Previous tasks have developed airport capacity and delay models and completed preliminary cost benefit estimates for TAP technologies at 10 U.S. airports. This task covers two improvements to the capacity and delay models. The first improvement is the completion of a detailed model set for the Chicago O'Hare (ORD) airport. Previous analyses used a more general model to estimate the benefits for ORD. This paper contains a description of the model details with results corresponding to current conditions. The second improvement is the development of specific wind speed and direction criteria for use in the delay models to predict when the Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) will allow use of reduced landing separations. This paper includes a description of the criteria and an estimate of AVOSS utility for 10 airports based on analysis of 35 years of weather data.

Resilience and efficiency in transportation networks

PubMed Central

Ganin, Alexander A.; Kitsak, Maksim; Marchese, Dayton; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Seager, Thomas; Linkov, Igor

2017-01-01

Urban transportation systems are vulnerable to congestion, accidents, weather, special events, and other costly delays. Whereas typical policy responses prioritize reduction of delays under normal conditions to improve the efficiency of urban road systems, analytic support for investments that improve resilience (defined as system recovery from additional disruptions) is still scarce. In this effort, we represent paved roads as a transportation network by mapping intersections to nodes and road segments between the intersections to links. We built road networks for 40 of the urban areas defined by the U.S. Census Bureau. We developed and calibrated a model to evaluate traffic delays using link loads. The loads may be regarded as traffic-based centrality measures, estimating the number of individuals using corresponding road segments. Efficiency was estimated as the average annual delay per peak-period auto commuter, and modeled results were found to be close to observed data, with the notable exception of New York City. Resilience was estimated as the change in efficiency resulting from roadway disruptions and was found to vary between cities, with increased delays due to a 5% random loss of road linkages ranging from 9.5% in Los Angeles to 56.0% in San Francisco. The results demonstrate that many urban road systems that operate inefficiently under normal conditions are nevertheless resilient to disruption, whereas some more efficient cities are more fragile. The implication is that resilience, not just efficiency, should be considered explicitly in roadway project selection and justify investment opportunities related to disaster and other disruptions. PMID:29291243

Local linear estimation of concordance probability with application to covariate effects models on association for bivariate failure-time data.

PubMed

Ding, Aidong Adam; Hsieh, Jin-Jian; Wang, Weijing

2015-01-01

Bivariate survival analysis has wide applications. In the presence of covariates, most literature focuses on studying their effects on the marginal distributions. However covariates can also affect the association between the two variables. In this article we consider the latter issue by proposing a nonstandard local linear estimator for the concordance probability as a function of covariates. Under the Clayton copula, the conditional concordance probability has a simple one-to-one correspondence with the copula parameter for different data structures including those subject to independent or dependent censoring and dependent truncation. The proposed method can be used to study how covariates affect the Clayton association parameter without specifying marginal regression models. Asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are derived and their finite-sample performances are examined via simulations. Finally, for illustration, we apply the proposed method to analyze a bone marrow transplant data set.

Valuing river characteristics using combined site choice and participation travel cost models.

PubMed

Johnstone, C; Markandya, A

2006-08-01

This paper presents new welfare measures for marginal changes in river quality in selected English rivers. The river quality indicators used include chemical, biological and habitat-level attributes. Economic values for recreational use of three types of river-upland, lowland and chalk-are presented. A survey of anglers was carried out and using these data, two travel cost models were estimated, one to predict the numbers of trips and the other to predict angling site choice. These models were then linked to estimate the welfare associated with marginal changes in river quality using the participation levels as estimated in the trip prediction model. The model results showed that higher flow rates, biological quality and nutrient pollution levels affect site choice and influence the likelihood of a fishing trip. Consumer surplus values per trip for a 10% change in river attributes range from pound 0.04 to pound 3.93 ( pound 2001) depending on the attribute.

Correlation-based perfusion mapping using time-resolved MR angiography: A feasibility study for patients with suspicions of steno-occlusive craniocervical arteries.

PubMed

Nam, Yoonho; Jang, Jinhee; Park, Sonya Youngju; Choi, Hyun Seok; Jung, So-Lyung; Ahn, Kook-Jin; Kim, Bum-Soo

2018-05-22

To explore the feasibility of using correlation-based time-delay (CTD) maps produced from time-resolved MR angiography (TRMRA) to diagnose perfusion abnormalities in patients suspected to have steno-occlusive lesions in the craniocervical arteries. Twenty-seven patients who were suspected to have steno-occlusive lesions in the craniocervical arteries underwent both TRMRA and brain single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT). TRMRA was performed on the supra-aortic area after intravenous injection of a 0.03 mmol/kg gadolinium-based contrast agent. Time-to-peak (TTP) maps and CTD maps of the brain were automatically generated from TRMRA data, and their quality was assessed. Detection of perfusion abnormalities was compared between CTD maps and the time-series maximal intensity projection (MIP) images from TRMRA and TTP maps. Correlation coefficients between quantitative changes in SPECT and parametric maps for the abnormal perfusion areas were calculated. The CTD maps were of significantly superior quality than TTP maps (p < 0.01). For perfusion abnormality detection, CTD maps (kappa 0.84, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67-1.00) showed better agreement with SPECT than TTP maps (0.66, 0.46-0.85). For perfusion deficit detection, CTD maps showed higher accuracy (85.2%, 95% CI 66.3-95.8) than MIP images (66.7%, 46-83.5), with marginal significance (p = 0.07). In abnormal perfusion areas, correlation coefficients between SPECT and CTD (r = 0.74, 95% CI 0.34-0.91) were higher than those between SPECT and TTP (r = 0.66, 0.20-0.88). CTD maps generated from TRMRA were of high quality and offered good diagnostic performance for detecting perfusion abnormalities associated with steno-occlusive arterial lesions in the craniocervical area. • Generation of perfusion parametric maps from time-resolved MR angiography is clinically useful. • Correlation-based delay maps can be used to detect perfusion abnormalities associated with steno-occlusive craniocervical arteries. • Estimation of correlation-based delay is robust for low signal-to-noise 4D MR data.

High-speed all-optical logic inverter based on stimulated Raman scattering in silicon nanocrystal.

PubMed

Sen, Mrinal; Das, Mukul K

2015-11-01

In this paper, we propose a new device architecture for an all-optical logic inverter (NOT gate), which is cascadable with a similar device. The inverter is based on stimulated Raman scattering in silicon nanocrystal waveguides, which are embedded in a silicon photonic crystal structure. The Raman response function of silicon nanocrystal is evaluated to explore the transfer characteristic of the inverter. A maximum product criterion for the noise margin is taken to analyze the cascadability of the inverter. The time domain response of the inverter, which explores successful inversion operation at 100 Gb/s, is analyzed. Propagation delay of the inverter is on the order of 5 ps, which is less than the delay in most of the electronic logic families as of today. Overall dimension of the device is around 755  μm ×15  μm, which ensures integration compatibility with the matured silicon industry.

Using Marginal Structural Measurement-Error Models to Estimate the Long-term Effect of Antiretroviral Therapy on Incident AIDS or Death

PubMed Central

Cole, Stephen R.; Jacobson, Lisa P.; Tien, Phyllis C.; Kingsley, Lawrence; Chmiel, Joan S.; Anastos, Kathryn

2010-01-01

To estimate the net effect of imperfectly measured highly active antiretroviral therapy on incident acquired immunodeficiency syndrome or death, the authors combined inverse probability-of-treatment-and-censoring weighted estimation of a marginal structural Cox model with regression-calibration methods. Between 1995 and 2007, 950 human immunodeficiency virus–positive men and women were followed in 2 US cohort studies. During 4,054 person-years, 374 initiated highly active antiretroviral therapy, 211 developed acquired immunodeficiency syndrome or died, and 173 dropped out. Accounting for measured confounders and determinants of dropout, the weighted hazard ratio for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome or death comparing use of highly active antiretroviral therapy in the prior 2 years with no therapy was 0.36 (95% confidence limits: 0.21, 0.61). This association was relatively constant over follow-up (P = 0.19) and stronger than crude or adjusted hazard ratios of 0.75 and 0.95, respectively. Accounting for measurement error in reported exposure using external validation data on 331 men and women provided a hazard ratio of 0.17, with bias shifted from the hazard ratio to the estimate of precision as seen by the 2.5-fold wider confidence limits (95% confidence limits: 0.06, 0.43). Marginal structural measurement-error models can simultaneously account for 3 major sources of bias in epidemiologic research: validated exposure measurement error, measured selection bias, and measured time-fixed and time-varying confounding. PMID:19934191

Marginal Structural Models for Case-Cohort Study Designs to Estimate the Association of Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation With Incident AIDS or Death

PubMed Central

Cole, Stephen R.; Hudgens, Michael G.; Tien, Phyllis C.; Anastos, Kathryn; Kingsley, Lawrence; Chmiel, Joan S.; Jacobson, Lisa P.

2012-01-01

To estimate the association of antiretroviral therapy initiation with incident acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) or death while accounting for time-varying confounding in a cost-efficient manner, the authors combined a case-cohort study design with inverse probability-weighted estimation of a marginal structural Cox proportional hazards model. A total of 950 adults who were positive for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 were followed in 2 US cohort studies between 1995 and 2007. In the full cohort, 211 AIDS cases or deaths occurred during 4,456 person-years. In an illustrative 20% random subcohort of 190 participants, 41 AIDS cases or deaths occurred during 861 person-years. Accounting for measured confounders and determinants of dropout by inverse probability weighting, the full cohort hazard ratio was 0.41 (95% confidence interval: 0.26, 0.65) and the case-cohort hazard ratio was 0.47 (95% confidence interval: 0.26, 0.83). Standard multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios were closer to the null, regardless of study design. The precision lost with the case-cohort design was modest given the cost savings. Results from Monte Carlo simulations demonstrated that the proposed approach yields approximately unbiased estimates of the hazard ratio with appropriate confidence interval coverage. Marginal structural model analysis of case-cohort study designs provides a cost-efficient design coupled with an accurate analytic method for research settings in which there is time-varying confounding. PMID:22302074

Estimating Model Probabilities using Thermodynamic Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, M.; Liu, P.; Beerli, P.; Lu, D.; Hill, M. C.

2014-12-01

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are widely used to evaluate model probability for quantifying model uncertainty. In a general procedure, MCMC simulations are first conducted for each individual model, and MCMC parameter samples are then used to approximate marginal likelihood of the model by calculating the geometric mean of the joint likelihood of the model and its parameters. It has been found the method of evaluating geometric mean suffers from the numerical problem of low convergence rate. A simple test case shows that even millions of MCMC samples are insufficient to yield accurate estimation of the marginal likelihood. To resolve this problem, a thermodynamic method is used to have multiple MCMC runs with different values of a heating coefficient between zero and one. When the heating coefficient is zero, the MCMC run is equivalent to a random walk MC in the prior parameter space; when the heating coefficient is one, the MCMC run is the conventional one. For a simple case with analytical form of the marginal likelihood, the thermodynamic method yields more accurate estimate than the method of using geometric mean. This is also demonstrated for a case of groundwater modeling with consideration of four alternative models postulated based on different conceptualization of a confining layer. This groundwater example shows that model probabilities estimated using the thermodynamic method are more reasonable than those obtained using the geometric method. The thermodynamic method is general, and can be used for a wide range of environmental problem for model uncertainty quantification.

Finite-Time Stabilization and Adaptive Control of Memristor-Based Delayed Neural Networks.

PubMed

Wang, Leimin; Shen, Yi; Zhang, Guodong

Finite-time stability problem has been a hot topic in control and system engineering. This paper deals with the finite-time stabilization issue of memristor-based delayed neural networks (MDNNs) via two control approaches. First, in order to realize the stabilization of MDNNs in finite time, a delayed state feedback controller is proposed. Then, a novel adaptive strategy is applied to the delayed controller, and finite-time stabilization of MDNNs can also be achieved by using the adaptive control law. Some easily verified algebraic criteria are derived to ensure the stabilization of MDNNs in finite time, and the estimation of the settling time functional is given. Moreover, several finite-time stability results as our special cases for both memristor-based neural networks (MNNs) without delays and neural networks are given. Finally, three examples are provided for the illustration of the theoretical results.Finite-time stability problem has been a hot topic in control and system engineering. This paper deals with the finite-time stabilization issue of memristor-based delayed neural networks (MDNNs) via two control approaches. First, in order to realize the stabilization of MDNNs in finite time, a delayed state feedback controller is proposed. Then, a novel adaptive strategy is applied to the delayed controller, and finite-time stabilization of MDNNs can also be achieved by using the adaptive control law. Some easily verified algebraic criteria are derived to ensure the stabilization of MDNNs in finite time, and the estimation of the settling time functional is given. Moreover, several finite-time stability results as our special cases for both memristor-based neural networks (MNNs) without delays and neural networks are given. Finally, three examples are provided for the illustration of the theoretical results.

Willing to wait: Elevated reward-processing EEG activity associated with a greater preference for larger-but-delayed rewards.

PubMed

Pornpattananangkul, Narun; Nusslock, Robin

2016-10-01

While almost everyone discounts the value of future rewards over immediate rewards, people differ in their so-called delay-discounting. One of the several factors that may explain individual differences in delay-discounting is reward-processing. To study individual-differences in reward-processing, however, one needs to consider the heterogeneity of neural-activity at each reward-processing stage. Here using EEG, we separated reward-related neural activity into distinct reward-anticipation and reward-outcome stages using time-frequency characteristics. Thirty-seven individuals first completed a behavioral delay-discounting task. Then reward-processing EEG activity was assessed using a separate reward-learning task, called a reward time-estimation task. During this EEG task, participants were instructed to estimate time duration and were provided performance feedback on a trial-by-trial basis. Participants received monetary-reward for accurate-performance on Reward trials, but not on No-Reward trials. Reward trials, relative to No-Reward trials, enhanced EEG activity during both reward-anticipation (including, cued-locked delta power during cue-evaluation and pre-feedback alpha suppression during feedback-anticipation) and reward-outcome (including, feedback-locked delta, theta and beta power) stages. Moreover, all of these EEG indices correlated with behavioral performance in the time-estimation task, suggesting their essential roles in learning and adjusting performance to maximize winnings in a reward-learning situation. Importantly, enhanced EEG power during Reward trials, as reflected by stronger 1) pre-feedback alpha suppression, 2) feedback-locked theta and 3) feedback-locked beta, was associated with a greater preference for larger-but-delayed rewards in a separate, behavioral delay-discounting task. Results highlight the association between a stronger preference toward larger-but-delayed rewards and enhanced reward-processing. Moreover, our reward-processing EEG indices detail the specific stages of reward-processing where these associations occur. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The determination of acoustic reflection coefficients by using cepstral techniques, II: Extensions of the technique and considerations of accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolton, J. S.; Gold, E.

1986-10-01

In a companion paper the cepstral technique for the measurement of reflection coefficients was described. In particular the concepts of extraction noise and extraction delay were introduced. They are considered further here, and, in addition, a means of extending the cepstral technique to accommodate surfaces having lengthy impulse responses is described. The character of extraction noise, a cepstral component which interferes with reflection measurements, is largely determined by the spectrum of the signal radiated from the source loudspeaker. Here the origin and effects of extraction noise are discussed and it is shown that inverse filtering techniques may be used to reduce extraction noise without making impractical demands of the electrical test signal or the source loudspeaker. The extraction delay, a factor which is introduced when removing the reflector impulse response from the power cepstrum, has previously been estimated by a cross-correlation technique. Here the importance of estimating the extraction delay accurately is emphasized by showing the effect of small spurious delays on the calculation of the normal impedance of a reflecting surface. The effects are shown to accord with theory, and it was found that the real part of the estimated surface normal impedance is very nearly maximized when the spurious delay is eliminated; this has suggested a new way of determining the extraction delay itself. Finally, the basic cepstral technique is suited only to the measurement of surfaces whose impulse responses are shorter than τ, the delay between the arrival of the direct and specularly reflected components at the measurement position. Here it is shown that this restriction can be eliminated, by using a process known as cepstral inversion, when the direct cepstrum has a duration less than τ and cepstral aliasing is insignificant. It is also possible to use this technique to deconvolve a signal from an echo sequence in the time domain, an operation previously associated with the complex cepstrum rather than with the power cepstrum as used here.

Micro-CT evaluation of the marginal fit of CAD/CAM all ceramic crowns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenes, Christian

Objectives: Evaluate the marginal fit of CAD/CAM all ceramic crowns made from lithium disilicate and zirconia using two different fabrication protocols (model and model-less). METHODS: Forty anterior all ceramic restorations (20 lithium disilicate, 20 zirconia) were fabricated using a CEREC Bluecam scanner. Two different fabrication methods were used: a full digital approach and a printed model. Completed crowns were cemented and marginal gap was evaluated using Micro-CT. Each specimen was analyzed in sagittal and trans-axial orientations, allowing a 360° evaluation of the vertical and horizontal fit. RESULTS: Vertical measurements in the lingual, distal and mesial views had and estimated marginal gap from 101.9 to 133.9 microns for E-max crowns and 126.4 to 165.4 microns for zirconia. No significant differences were found between model and model-less techniques. CONCLUSION: Lithium disilicate restorations exhibited a more accurate and consistent marginal adaptation when compared to zirconia crowns. No statistically significant differences were observed when comparing model or model-less approaches.

Breakup Style and Magmatic Underplating West of the Lofoten Islands, Norway, Based on OBS Data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breivik, A. J.; Faleide, J. I.; Mjelde, R.; Murai, Y.; Flueh, E. R.

2014-12-01

The breakup of the Northeast Atlantic in the Early Eocene was magma-rich, forming the major part of the North Atlantic Igneous Province (NAIP). This is seen as extrusive and intrusive magmatism in the continental domain, and as a thicker than normal oceanic crust produced the first few million years after continental breakup. The maximum magma productivity and the duration of excess magmatism varies along the margins of Northwest Europe and East Greenland, to some extent as a function of the distance from the Iceland hotspot. The Vøring Plateau off mid-Norway is the northernmost of the margin segments in northwestern Europe with extensive magmatism. North of the plateau, magmatism dies off towards the Lofoten Margin, marking the northern boundary of the NAIP here. In 2003, as part of the Euromargins Program we collected an Ocean Bottom Seismometer (OBS) profile from mainland Norway, across the Lofoten Islands, and out into the deep ocean. Forward velocity modeling using raytracing reveals a continental margin that shows transitional features between magma-rich and magma-poor rifting. On one hand, we detect an up to 2 km thick and 40-50 km wide magmatic underplate of the outer continent, on the other hand, continental thinning is greater and intrusive magmatism less than farther south. Continental breakup also appears to be somewhat delayed compared to breakup on the Vøring Plateau, consistent with increased extension. This indicates that magmatic diking, believed to quickly lead to continental breakup of volcanic margins and thus to reduce continental thinning, played a much lesser role here than at the plateau. Early post-breakup oceanic crust is up to 8 km thick, less than half of that observed farther south. The most likely interpretation of these observations, is that the source for the excess magmatism of the NAIP was not present at the Lofoten Margin during rifting, and that the excess magmatism actually observed was the result of lateral transport from the south around breakup time.

14 CFR § 1214.805 - Unforeseen customer delay.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... problem pose a threat of delay to the Shuttle launch schedule or critical off-line activities, NASA shall... availability of facilities, equipment, and personnel. In requesting NASA to make such special efforts, the customer shall agree to reimburse NASA the estimated additional cost incurred. ...

A direct evaluation of the Geosat altimeter wet atmospheric range delay using very long baseline interferometry observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koblinsky, C. J.; Ryan, J.; Braatz, L.; Klosko, S. M.

1993-01-01

The overall accuracy of the U.S. Navy Geosat altimeter wet atmospheric range delay caused by refraction through the atmosphere is directly assessed by comparing the estimates made from the DMSP Special Sensor Microwave/Imager and the U.S. Navy Fleet Numerical Ocean Center forecast model for Geosat with measurements of total zenith columnar water vapor content from four VLBI sites. The assessment is made by comparing time series of range delay from various methods at each location. To determine the importance of diurnal variation in water vapor content in noncoincident estimates, the VLBI measurements were made at 15-min intervals over a few days. The VLBI measurements showed strong diurnal variations in columnar water vapor at several sites, causing errors of the order 3 cm rms in any noncoincident measurement of the wet troposphere range delay. These errors have an effect on studies of annual and interannual changes in sea level with Geosat data.

Development of Model for Pedestrian Gap Based on Land Use Pattern at Midblock Location and Estimation of Delay at Intersections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramesh, Adepu; Ashritha, Kilari; Kumar, Molugaram

2018-04-01

Walking has always been a prime source of human mobility for short distance travel. Traffic congestion has become a major problem for safe pedestrian crossing in most of the metropolitan cities. This has emphasized for providing a sufficient pedestrian gap for safe crossing on urban road. The present works aims in understanding factors that influence pedestrian crossing behaviour. Four locations were chosen for identification of pedestrian crossing behaviour, gap characteristics, waiting time etc., in Hyderabad city. From the study it was observed that pedestrian behaviour and crossing patterns are different and is influenced by land use pattern. A gap acceptance model was developed from the data for improving pedestrian safety at mid-block location; the model was validated using the existing data. Pedestrian delay was estimated at intersection using Highway Capacity Manual (HCM). It was observed that field delays are less when compared to delay arrived from HCM method.

Holographic evaluation of the marginal fit of complete crowns loaded at central fossa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Terry Y.; Chang, Guan L.; Wu, Shih H.

1993-07-01

In dentistry, the defect of cementation on the margins of crowns accumulates bacterial plaque easily. This can result in recurrent caries and periodontal disease. In this paper holographic interferometry is applied to study the effect of masticatory force on various complete crowns. Four complete molar crowns made from different casting materials (Au, Pd-Ag, Ni-Cr, and PFM) were tested. The horizontal displacements of two points near the margin, measured by the method of multiple observations, could be as large as 15 micrometers under normal load (25 kgw). However, the marginal discrepancy of all four crowns estimated were quite small (< 0.2 micrometers ). This also indicates that the cementation between the crown and the tooth is quite good. Nevertheless, when the load was increased to 45 kgw, a defect of cementation was found on the Pd-Ag crown.

Generation of real-time mode high-resolution water vapor fields from GPS observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Chen; Penna, Nigel T.; Li, Zhenhong

2017-02-01

Pointwise GPS measurements of tropospheric zenith total delay can be interpolated to provide high-resolution water vapor maps which may be used for correcting synthetic aperture radar images, for numeral weather prediction, and for correcting Network Real-time Kinematic GPS observations. Several previous studies have addressed the importance of the elevation dependency of water vapor, but it is often a challenge to separate elevation-dependent tropospheric delays from turbulent components. In this paper, we present an iterative tropospheric decomposition interpolation model that decouples the elevation and turbulent tropospheric delay components. For a 150 km × 150 km California study region, we estimate real-time mode zenith total delays at 41 GPS stations over 1 year by using the precise point positioning technique and demonstrate that the decoupled interpolation model generates improved high-resolution tropospheric delay maps compared with previous tropospheric turbulence- and elevation-dependent models. Cross validation of the GPS zenith total delays yields an RMS error of 4.6 mm with the decoupled interpolation model, compared with 8.4 mm with the previous model. On converting the GPS zenith wet delays to precipitable water vapor and interpolating to 1 km grid cells across the region, validations with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer near-IR water vapor product show 1.7 mm RMS differences by using the decoupled model, compared with 2.0 mm for the previous interpolation model. Such results are obtained without differencing the tropospheric delays or water vapor estimates in time or space, while the errors are similar over flat and mountainous terrains, as well as for both inland and coastal areas.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morrison, Hali, E-mail: hamorris@ualberta.ca; Meno

Purpose: To estimate the total dosimetric uncertainty at the tumor apex for ocular brachytherapy treatments delivered using 16 mm Collaborative Ocular Melanoma Study (COMS) and Super9 plaques loaded with {sup 125}I seeds in order to determine the size of the apex margin that would be required to ensure adequate dosimetric coverage of the tumor. Methods: The total dosimetric uncertainty was assessed for three reference tumor heights: 3, 5, and 10 mm, using the Guide to the expression of Uncertainty in Measurement/National Institute of Standards and Technology approach. Uncertainties pertaining to seed construction, source strength, plaque assembly, treatment planning calculations, tumormore » height measurement, plaque placement, and plaque tilt for a simple dome-shaped tumor were investigated and quantified to estimate the total dosimetric uncertainty at the tumor apex. Uncertainties in seed construction were determined using EBT3 Gafchromic film measurements around single seeds, plaque assembly uncertainties were determined using high resolution microCT scanning of loaded plaques to measure seed positions in the plaques, and all other uncertainties were determined from the previously published studies and recommended values. All dose calculations were performed using PLAQUESIMULATOR v5.7.6 ophthalmic treatment planning system with the inclusion of plaque heterogeneity corrections. Results: The total dosimetric uncertainties at 3, 5, and 10 mm tumor heights for the 16 mm COMS plaque were 17.3%, 16.1%, and 14.2%, respectively, and for the Super9 plaque were 18.2%, 14.4%, and 13.1%, respectively (all values with coverage factor k = 2). The apex margins at 3, 5, and 10 mm tumor heights required to adequately account for these uncertainties were 1.3, 1.3, and 1.4 mm, respectively, for the 16 mm COMS plaque, and 1.8, 1.4, and 1.2 mm, respectively, for the Super9 plaque. These uncertainties and associated margins are dependent on the dose gradient at the given prescription depth, thus resulting in the changing uncertainties and margins with depth. Conclusions: The margins determined in this work can be used as a guide for determining an appropriate apex margin for a given treatment, which can be chosen based on the tumor height. The required margin may need to be increased for more complex scenarios (mushroom shaped tumors, tumors close to the optic nerve, oblique muscle related tilt, etc.) than the simple dome-shaped tumor examined and should be chosen on a case-by-case basis. The sources of uncertainty contributing most significantly to the total dosimetric uncertainty are seed placement within the plaques, treatment planning calculations, tumor height measurement, and plaque tilt. This work presents an uncertainty-based, rational approach to estimating an appropriate apex margin.« less

The special case of the 2 × 2 table: asymptotic unconditional McNemar test can be used to estimate sample size even for analysis based on GEE.

PubMed

Borkhoff, Cornelia M; Johnston, Patrick R; Stephens, Derek; Atenafu, Eshetu

2015-07-01

Aligning the method used to estimate sample size with the planned analytic method ensures the sample size needed to achieve the planned power. When using generalized estimating equations (GEE) to analyze a paired binary primary outcome with no covariates, many use an exact McNemar test to calculate sample size. We reviewed the approaches to sample size estimation for paired binary data and compared the sample size estimates on the same numerical examples. We used the hypothesized sample proportions for the 2 × 2 table to calculate the correlation between the marginal proportions to estimate sample size based on GEE. We solved the inside proportions based on the correlation and the marginal proportions to estimate sample size based on exact McNemar, asymptotic unconditional McNemar, and asymptotic conditional McNemar. The asymptotic unconditional McNemar test is a good approximation of GEE method by Pan. The exact McNemar is too conservative and yields unnecessarily large sample size estimates than all other methods. In the special case of a 2 × 2 table, even when a GEE approach to binary logistic regression is the planned analytic method, the asymptotic unconditional McNemar test can be used to estimate sample size. We do not recommend using an exact McNemar test. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Observations at convergent margins concerning sediment subduction, subduction erosion, and the growth of continental crust

USGS Publications Warehouse

von Huene, Roland E.; Scholl, D. W.

1991-01-01

At ocean margins where two plates converge, the oceanic plate sinks or is subducted beneath an upper one topped by a layer of terrestrial crust. This crust is constructed of continental or island arc material. The subduction process either builds juvenile masses of terrestrial crust through arc volcanism or new areas of crust through the piling up of accretionary masses (prisms) of sedimentary deposits and fragments of thicker crustal bodies scraped off the subducting lower plate. At convergent margins, terrestrial material can also bypass the accretionary prism as a result of sediment subduction, and terrestrial matter can be removed from the upper plate by processes of subduction erosion. Sediment subduction occurs where sediment remains attached to the subducting oceanic plate and underthrusts the seaward position of the upper plate's resistive buttress (backstop) of consolidated sediment and rock. Sediment subduction occurs at two types of convergent margins: type 1 margins where accretionary prisms form and type 2 margins where little net accretion takes place. At type 2 margins (???19,000 km in global length), effectively all incoming sediment is subducted beneath the massif of basement or framework rocks forming the landward trench slope. At accreting or type 1 margins, sediment subduction begins at the seaward position of an active buttress of consolidated accretionary material that accumulated in front of a starting or core buttress of framework rocks. Where small-to-mediumsized prisms have formed (???16,300 km), approximately 20% of the incoming sediment is skimmed off a detachment surface or decollement and frontally accreted to the active buttress. The remaining 80% subducts beneath the buttress and may either underplate older parts of the frontal body or bypass the prism entirely and underthrust the leading edge of the margin's rock framework. At margins bordered by large prisms (???8,200 km), roughly 70% of the incoming trench floor section is subducted beneath the frontal accretionary body and its active buttress. In rounded figures the contemporary rate of solid-volume sediment subduction at convergent ocean margins (???43,500 km) is calculated to be 1.5 km3/yr. Correcting type 1 margins for high rates of terrigenous seafloor sedimentation during the past 30 m.y. or so sets the long-term rate of sediment subduction at 1.0 km3/yr. The bulk of the subducted material is derived directly or indirectly from continental denudation. Interstitial water currently expulsed from accreted and deeply subducted sediment and recycled to the ocean basins is estimated at 0.9 km3/yr. The thinning and truncation caused by subduction erosion of the margin's framework rock and overlying sedimentary deposits have been demonstrated at many convergent margins but only off northern Japan, central Peru, and northern Chile has sufficient information been collected to determine average or long-term rates, which range from 25 to 50 km3/m.y. per kilometer of margin. A conservative long-term rate applicable to many sectors of convergent margins is 30 km3/km/m.y. If applied to the length of type 2 margins, subduction erosion removes and transports approximately 0.6 km3/yr of upper plate material to greater depths. At various places, subduction erosion also affects sectors of type 1 margins bordered by small- to medium-sized accretionary prisms (for example, Japan and Peru), thus increasing the global rate by possibly 0.5 km3/yr to a total of 1.1 km3/yr. Little information is available to assess subduction erosion at margins bordered by large accretionary prisms. Mass balance calculations allow assessments to be made of the amount of subducted sediment that bypasses the prism and underthrusts the margin's rock framework. This subcrustally subducted sediment is estimated at 0.7 km3/yr. Combined with the range of terrestrial matter removed from the margin's rock framework by subduction erosion, the global volume of subcrustally subducted materia

An application of model-fitting procedures for marginal structural models.

PubMed

Mortimer, Kathleen M; Neugebauer, Romain; van der Laan, Mark; Tager, Ira B

2005-08-15

Marginal structural models (MSMs) are being used more frequently to obtain causal effect estimates in observational studies. Although the principal estimator of MSM coefficients has been the inverse probability of treatment weight (IPTW) estimator, there are few published examples that illustrate how to apply IPTW or discuss the impact of model selection on effect estimates. The authors applied IPTW estimation of an MSM to observational data from the Fresno Asthmatic Children's Environment Study (2000-2002) to evaluate the effect of asthma rescue medication use on pulmonary function and compared their results with those obtained through traditional regression methods. Akaike's Information Criterion and cross-validation methods were used to fit the MSM. In this paper, the influence of model selection and evaluation of key assumptions such as the experimental treatment assignment assumption are discussed in detail. Traditional analyses suggested that medication use was not associated with an improvement in pulmonary function--a finding that is counterintuitive and probably due to confounding by symptoms and asthma severity. The final MSM estimated that medication use was causally related to a 7% improvement in pulmonary function. The authors present examples that should encourage investigators who use IPTW estimation to undertake and discuss the impact of model-fitting procedures to justify the choice of the final weights.

75 FR 81126 - Revisions to Lead Ambient Air Monitoring Requirements

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-27

... Council (NRDC), the Missouri Coalition for the Environment Foundation, Physicians for Social... estimates from the 2002 and 2005 NEI (Table 2) and estimated design values (i.e., 3-month rolling average Pb... year of lead to protect public health with an adequate margin of safety. The available evidence...

IRT-Estimated Reliability for Tests Containing Mixed Item Formats

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shu, Lianghua; Schwarz, Richard D.

2014-01-01

As a global measure of precision, item response theory (IRT) estimated reliability is derived for four coefficients (Cronbach's a, Feldt-Raju, stratified a, and marginal reliability). Models with different underlying assumptions concerning test-part similarity are discussed. A detailed computational example is presented for the targeted…

Estimating the Parameters of the Beta-Binomial Distribution.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilcox, Rand R.

1979-01-01

For some situations the beta-binomial distribution might be used to describe the marginal distribution of test scores for a particular population of examinees. Several different methods of approximating the maximum likelihood estimate were investigated, and it was found that the Newton-Raphson method should be used when it yields admissable…

Observer-based sliding mode control of Markov jump systems with random sensor delays and partly unknown transition rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Deyin; Lu, Renquan; Xu, Yong; Ren, Hongru

2017-10-01

In this paper, the sliding mode control problem of Markov jump systems (MJSs) with unmeasured state, partly unknown transition rates and random sensor delays is probed. In the practical engineering control, the exact information of transition rates is hard to obtain and the measurement channel is supposed to subject to random sensor delay. Design a Luenberger observer to estimate the unmeasured system state, and an integral sliding mode surface is constructed to ensure the exponential stability of MJSs. A sliding mode controller based on estimator is proposed to drive the system state onto the sliding mode surface and render the sliding mode dynamics exponentially mean-square stable with H∞ performance index. Finally, simulation results are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed results.

Estimation of network path segment delays

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nichols, Kathleen Marie

A method for estimation of a network path segment delay includes determining a scaled time stamp for each packet of a plurality of packets by scaling a time stamp for each respective packet to minimize a difference of at least one of a frequency and a frequency drift between a transport protocol clock of a host and a monitoring point. The time stamp for each packet is provided by the transport protocol clock of the host. A corrected time stamp for each packet is determined by removing from the scaled time stamp for each respective packet, a temporal offset betweenmore » the transport protocol clock and the monitoring clock by minimizing a temporal delay variation of the plurality of packets traversing a segment between the host and the monitoring point.« less