The role of density-dependent individual growth in the persistence of freshwater salmonid populations.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone; Crivelli, Alain J; Jesensek, Dusan; De Leo, Giulio A

2008-06-01

Theoretical and empirical models of populations dynamics have paid little attention to the implications of density-dependent individual growth on the persistence and regulation of small freshwater salmonid populations. We have therefore designed a study aimed at testing our hypothesis that density-dependent individual growth is a process that enhances population recovery and reduces extinction risk in salmonid populations in a variable environment subject to disturbance events. This hypothesis was tested in two newly introduced marble trout (Salmo marmoratus) populations living in Slovenian streams (Zakojska and Gorska) subject to severe autumn floods. We developed a discrete-time stochastic individual-based model of population dynamics for each population with demographic parameters and compensatory responses tightly calibrated on data from individually tagged marble trout. The occurrence of severe flood events causing population collapses was explicitly accounted for in the model. We used the model in a population viability analysis setting to estimate the quasi-extinction risk and demographic indexes of the two marble trout populations when individual growth was density-dependent. We ran a set of simulations in which the effect of floods on population abundance was explicitly accounted for and another set of simulations in which flood events were not included in the model. These simulation results were compared with those of scenarios in which individual growth was modelled with density-independent Von Bertalanffy growth curves. Our results show how density-dependent individual growth may confer remarkable resilience to marble trout populations in case of major flood events. The resilience to flood events shown by the simulation results can be explained by the increase in size-dependent fecundity as a consequence of the drop in population size after a severe flood, which allows the population to quickly recover to the pre-event conditions. Our results suggest that density-dependent individual growth plays a potentially powerful role in the persistence of freshwater salmonids living in streams subject to recurrent yet unpredictable flood events.

Partitioning the sources of demographic variation reveals density-dependent nest predation in an island bird population

PubMed Central

Sofaer, Helen R; Sillett, T Scott; Langin, Kathryn M; Morrison, Scott A; Ghalambor, Cameron K

2014-01-01

Ecological factors often shape demography through multiple mechanisms, making it difficult to identify the sources of demographic variation. In particular, conspecific density can influence both the strength of competition and the predation rate, but density-dependent competition has received more attention, particularly among terrestrial vertebrates and in island populations. A better understanding of how both competition and predation contribute to density-dependent variation in fecundity can be gained by partitioning the effects of density on offspring number from its effects on reproductive failure, while also evaluating how biotic and abiotic factors jointly shape demography. We examined the effects of population density and precipitation on fecundity, nest survival, and adult survival in an insular population of orange-crowned warblers (Oreothlypis celata) that breeds at high densities and exhibits a suite of traits suggesting strong intraspecific competition. Breeding density had a negative influence on fecundity, but it acted by increasing the probability of reproductive failure through nest predation, rather than through competition, which was predicted to reduce the number of offspring produced by successful individuals. Our results demonstrate that density-dependent nest predation can underlie the relationship between population density and fecundity even in a high-density, insular population where intraspecific competition should be strong. PMID:25077023

Partitioning the sources of demographic variation reveals density-dependent nest predation in an island bird population.

PubMed

Sofaer, Helen R; Sillett, T Scott; Langin, Kathryn M; Morrison, Scott A; Ghalambor, Cameron K

2014-07-01

Ecological factors often shape demography through multiple mechanisms, making it difficult to identify the sources of demographic variation. In particular, conspecific density can influence both the strength of competition and the predation rate, but density-dependent competition has received more attention, particularly among terrestrial vertebrates and in island populations. A better understanding of how both competition and predation contribute to density-dependent variation in fecundity can be gained by partitioning the effects of density on offspring number from its effects on reproductive failure, while also evaluating how biotic and abiotic factors jointly shape demography. We examined the effects of population density and precipitation on fecundity, nest survival, and adult survival in an insular population of orange-crowned warblers (Oreothlypis celata) that breeds at high densities and exhibits a suite of traits suggesting strong intraspecific competition. Breeding density had a negative influence on fecundity, but it acted by increasing the probability of reproductive failure through nest predation, rather than through competition, which was predicted to reduce the number of offspring produced by successful individuals. Our results demonstrate that density-dependent nest predation can underlie the relationship between population density and fecundity even in a high-density, insular population where intraspecific competition should be strong.

Regulation of Aedes aegypti Population Dynamics in Field Systems: Quantifying Direct and Delayed Density Dependence

PubMed Central

Walsh, Rachael K.; Aguilar, Cristobal L.; Facchinelli, Luca; Valerio, Laura; Ramsey, Janine M.; Scott, Thomas W.; Lloyd, Alun L.; Gould, Fred

2013-01-01

Transgenic strains of Aedes aegypti have been engineered to help control transmission of dengue virus. Although resources have been invested in developing the strains, we lack data on the ecology of mosquitoes that could impact the success of this approach. Although studies of intra-specific competition have been conducted using Ae. aegypti larvae, none of these studies examine mixed age cohorts at densities that occur in the field, with natural nutrient levels. Experiments were conducted in Mexico to determine the impact of direct and delayed density dependence on Ae. aegypti populations. Natural water, food, and larval densities were used to estimate the impacts of density dependence on larval survival, development, and adult body size. Direct and delayed density-dependent factors had a significant impact on larval survival, larval development, and adult body size. These results indicate that control methods attempting to reduce mosquito populations may be counteracted by density-dependent population regulation. PMID:23669230

Density-dependent effects on physical condition and reproduction in North American elk: an experimental test.

Treesearch

Kelley M. Stewart; R. Terry Bowyer; Brian L. Dick; Bruce K. Johnson; John G. Kie

2005-01-01

Density dependence plays a key role in life-history characteristics and population ecology of large, herbivorous mammals. We designed a manipulative experiment to test hypotheses relating effects of density-dependent mechanisms on physical condition and fecundity of North American elk (Cervus elaphus) by creating populations at low and high density...

Nonlinear effects of climate and density in the dynamics of a fluctuating population of reindeer.

PubMed

Tyler, Nicholas J C; Forchhammer, Mads C; Øritsland, Nils Are

2008-06-01

Nonlinear and irregular population dynamics may arise as a result of phase dependence and coexistence of multiple attractors. Here we explore effects of climate and density in the dynamics of a highly fluctuating population of wild reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) on Svalbard observed over a period of 29 years. Time series analyses revealed that density dependence and the effects of local climate (measured as the degree of ablation [melting] of snow during winter) on numbers were both highly nonlinear: direct negative density dependence was found when the population was growing (Rt > 0) and during phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) characterized by winters with generally high (1979-1995) and low (1996-2007) indices, respectively. A growth-phase-dependent model explained the dynamics of the population best and revealed the influence of density-independent processes on numbers that a linear autoregressive model missed altogether. In particular, the abundance of reindeer was enhanced by ablation during phases of growth (Rt > 0), an observation that contrasts with the view that periods of mild weather in winter are normally deleterious for reindeer owing to icing of the snowpack. Analyses of vital rates corroborated the nonlinearity described in the population time series and showed that both starvation mortality in winter and fecundity were nonlinearly related to fluctuations in density and the level of ablation. The erratic pattern of growth of the population of reindeer in Adventdalen seems, therefore, to result from a combination of the effects of nonlinear density dependence, strong density-dependent mortality, and variable density independence related to ablation in winter.

Sexual segregation in North American elk: the role of density dependence

PubMed Central

Stewart, Kelley M; Walsh, Danielle R; Kie, John G; Dick, Brian L; Bowyer, R Terry

2015-01-01

We investigated how density-dependent processes and subsequent variation in nutritional condition of individuals influenced both timing and duration of sexual segregation and selection of resources. During 1999–2001, we experimentally created two population densities of North American elk (Cervus elaphus), a high-density population at 20 elk/km2, and a low-density population at 4 elk/km2 to test hypotheses relative to timing and duration of sexual segregation and variation in selection of resources. We used multi-response permutation procedures to investigate patterns of sexual segregation, and resource selection functions to document differences in selection of resources by individuals in high- and low-density populations during sexual segregation and aggregation. The duration of sexual segregation was 2 months longer in the high-density population and likely was influenced by individuals in poorer nutritional condition, which corresponded with later conception and parturition, than at low density. Males and females in the high-density population overlapped in selection of resources to a greater extent than in the low-density population, probably resulting from density-dependent effects of increased intraspecific competition and lower availability of resources. PMID:25691992

Population-regulating processes during the adult phase in flatfish

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rijnsdorp, A. D.

Flatfish support major fisheries and the study of regulatory processes are of paramount importance for evaluating the resilience of the resource to exploitation. This paper reviews the evidence for processes operating during the adult phase that may 1. generate interannual variability in recruitment; 2. contribute to population regulation through density-dependent growth, density-dependent ripening of adults and density-dependent egg production. With regard to (1), there is evidence that in the adult phase processes do occur that may generate recruitment variability through variation in size-specific fecundity, contraction of spawning season, reduction in egg quality, change in sex ratio and size composition of the adult population. However, time series of recruitment do not provide support for this hypothesis. With regard to (2), there is ample evidence that exploitation of flatfish coincides with an increase in growth, although the mechanisms involved are not always clear. The presence of density-dependent growth in the adult phase of unexploited populations appears to be the most likely explanation in some cases. From the early years of exploitation of flatfish stocks inhabiting cold waters, evidence exists that adult fish do not spawn each year. Fecundity schedules show annual variations, but the available information suggests that size-specific fecundity is stable over a broad range of population abundance and may only decrease at high population abundance. The analysis is complicated by the possibility of a trade-off between egg numbers and egg size. Nevertheless, a density-dependent decrease in growth will automatically result in a decrease in absolute fecundity because of the reduced body size. The potential contribution of these regulatory effects on population regulation is explored. Results indicate that density-dependent ripening and absolute fecundity, mediated through density-dependent growth, may control recruitment at high levels of population abundance. The effect of a density-dependent decrease in size-specific fecundity seems to play a minor role, although this role may become important at extremely high levels of population abundance.

Environmental variability and population dynamics: Do European and North American ducks play by the same rules?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pöysä, Hannu; Rintala, Jukka; Johnson, Douglas H.; Kauppinen, Jukka; Lammi, Esa; Nudds, Thomas D.; Väänänen, Veli-Matti

2016-01-01

Density dependence, population regulation, and variability in population size are fundamental population processes, the manifestation and interrelationships of which are affected by environmental variability. However, there are surprisingly few empirical studies that distinguish the effect of environmental variability from the effects of population processes. We took advantage of a unique system, in which populations of the same duck species or close ecological counterparts live in highly variable (north American prairies) and in stable (north European lakes) environments, to distinguish the relative contributions of environmental variability (measured as between-year fluctuations in wetland numbers) and intraspecific interactions (density dependence) in driving population dynamics. We tested whether populations living in stable environments (in northern Europe) were more strongly governed by density dependence than populations living in variable environments (in North America). We also addressed whether relative population dynamical responses to environmental variability versus density corresponded to differences in life history strategies between dabbling (relatively “fast species” and governed by environmental variability) and diving (relatively “slow species” and governed by density) ducks. As expected, the variance component of population fluctuations caused by changes in breeding environments was greater in North America than in Europe. Contrary to expectations, however, populations in more stable environments were not less variable nor clearly more strongly density dependent than populations in highly variable environments. Also, contrary to expectations, populations of diving ducks were neither more stable nor stronger density dependent than populations of dabbling ducks, and the effect of environmental variability on population dynamics was greater in diving than in dabbling ducks. In general, irrespective of continent and species life history, environmental variability contributed more to variation in species abundances than did density. Our findings underscore the need for more studies on populations of the same species in different environments to verify the generality of current explanations about population dynamics and its association with species life history.

Environmental variability and population dynamics: do European and North American ducks play by the same rules?

PubMed

Pöysä, Hannu; Rintala, Jukka; Johnson, Douglas H; Kauppinen, Jukka; Lammi, Esa; Nudds, Thomas D; Väänänen, Veli-Matti

2016-10-01

Density dependence, population regulation, and variability in population size are fundamental population processes, the manifestation and interrelationships of which are affected by environmental variability. However, there are surprisingly few empirical studies that distinguish the effect of environmental variability from the effects of population processes. We took advantage of a unique system, in which populations of the same duck species or close ecological counterparts live in highly variable (north American prairies) and in stable (north European lakes) environments, to distinguish the relative contributions of environmental variability (measured as between-year fluctuations in wetland numbers) and intraspecific interactions (density dependence) in driving population dynamics. We tested whether populations living in stable environments (in northern Europe) were more strongly governed by density dependence than populations living in variable environments (in North America). We also addressed whether relative population dynamical responses to environmental variability versus density corresponded to differences in life history strategies between dabbling (relatively "fast species" and governed by environmental variability) and diving (relatively "slow species" and governed by density) ducks. As expected, the variance component of population fluctuations caused by changes in breeding environments was greater in North America than in Europe. Contrary to expectations, however, populations in more stable environments were not less variable nor clearly more strongly density dependent than populations in highly variable environments. Also, contrary to expectations, populations of diving ducks were neither more stable nor stronger density dependent than populations of dabbling ducks, and the effect of environmental variability on population dynamics was greater in diving than in dabbling ducks. In general, irrespective of continent and species life history, environmental variability contributed more to variation in species abundances than did density. Our findings underscore the need for more studies on populations of the same species in different environments to verify the generality of current explanations about population dynamics and its association with species life history.

Weakening density dependence from climate change and agricultural intensification triggers pest outbreaks: a 37-year observation of cotton bollworms

PubMed Central

Ouyang, Fang; Hui, Cang; Ge, Saiying; Men, Xin-Yuan; Zhao, Zi-Hua; Shi, Pei-Jian; Zhang, Yong-Sheng; Li, Bai-Lian

2014-01-01

Understanding drivers of population fluctuation, especially for agricultural pests, is central to the provision of agro-ecosystem services. Here, we examine the role of endogenous density dependence and exogenous factors of climate and human activity in regulating the 37-year population dynamics of an important agricultural insect pest, the cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera), in North China from 1975 to 2011. Quantitative time-series analysis provided strong evidence explaining long-term population dynamics of the cotton bollworm and its driving factors. Rising temperature and declining rainfall exacerbated the effect of agricultural intensification on continuously weakening the negative density dependence in regulating the population dynamics of cotton bollworms. Consequently, ongoing climate change and agricultural intensification unleashed the tightly regulated pest population and triggered the regional outbreak of H. armigera in 1992. Although the negative density dependence can effectively regulate the population change rate to fluctuate around zero at stable equilibrium levels before and after outbreak in the 1992, the population equilibrium jumped to a higher density level with apparently larger amplitudes after the outbreak. The results highlight the possibility for exogenous factors to induce pest outbreaks and alter the population regulating mechanism of negative density dependence and, thus, the stable equilibrium of the pest population, often to a higher level, posing considerable risks to the provision of agro-ecosystem services and regional food security. Efficient and timely measures of pest management in the era of Anthropocene should target the strengthening and revival of weakening density dependence caused by climate change and human activities. PMID:25535553

Weakening density dependence from climate change and agricultural intensification triggers pest outbreaks: a 37-year observation of cotton bollworms.

PubMed

Ouyang, Fang; Hui, Cang; Ge, Saiying; Men, Xin-Yuan; Zhao, Zi-Hua; Shi, Pei-Jian; Zhang, Yong-Sheng; Li, Bai-Lian

2014-09-01

Understanding drivers of population fluctuation, especially for agricultural pests, is central to the provision of agro-ecosystem services. Here, we examine the role of endogenous density dependence and exogenous factors of climate and human activity in regulating the 37-year population dynamics of an important agricultural insect pest, the cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera), in North China from 1975 to 2011. Quantitative time-series analysis provided strong evidence explaining long-term population dynamics of the cotton bollworm and its driving factors. Rising temperature and declining rainfall exacerbated the effect of agricultural intensification on continuously weakening the negative density dependence in regulating the population dynamics of cotton bollworms. Consequently, ongoing climate change and agricultural intensification unleashed the tightly regulated pest population and triggered the regional outbreak of H. armigera in 1992. Although the negative density dependence can effectively regulate the population change rate to fluctuate around zero at stable equilibrium levels before and after outbreak in the 1992, the population equilibrium jumped to a higher density level with apparently larger amplitudes after the outbreak. The results highlight the possibility for exogenous factors to induce pest outbreaks and alter the population regulating mechanism of negative density dependence and, thus, the stable equilibrium of the pest population, often to a higher level, posing considerable risks to the provision of agro-ecosystem services and regional food security. Efficient and timely measures of pest management in the era of Anthropocene should target the strengthening and revival of weakening density dependence caused by climate change and human activities.

DENSITY-DEPENDENT EVOLUTION OF LIFE-HISTORY TRAITS IN DROSOPHILA MELANOGASTER.

PubMed

Bierbaum, Todd J; Mueller, Laurence D; Ayala, Francisco J

1989-03-01

Populations of Drosophila melanogaster were maintained for 36 generations in r- and K-selected environments in order to test the life-history predictions of theories on density-dependent selection. In the r-selection environment, populations were reduced to low densities by density-independent adult mortality, whereas populations in the K-selection environment were maintained at their carrying capacity. Some of the experimental results support the predictions or r- and K-selection theory; relative to the r-selected populations, the K-selected populations evolved an increased larval-to-adult viability, larger body size, and longer development time at high larval densities. Mueller and Ayala (1981) found that K-selected populations also have a higher rate of population growth at high densities. Other predictions of the thoery are contradicted by the lack of differences between the r and K populations in adult longevity and fecundity and a slower rate of development for r-selected individuals at low densities. The differences between selected populations in larval survivorship, larval-to-adult development time, and adult body size are strongly dependent on larval density, and there is a significant interaction between populations and larval density for each trait. This manifests an inadequacy of the theory on r- and K-selection, which does not take into account such interactions between genotypes and environments. We describe mechanisms that may explain the evolution of preadult life-history traits in our experiment and discuss the need for changes in theories of density-dependent selection. © 1989 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Stochastic seasonality and nonlinear density-dependent factors regulate population size in an African rodent

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leirs, H.; Stenseth, N.C.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Verhagen, R.; Verheyen, W.

1997-01-01

Ecology has long been troubled by the controversy over how populations are regulated. Some ecologists focus on the role of environmental effects, whereas others argue that density-dependent feedback mechanisms are central. The relative importance of both processes is still hotly debated, but clear examples of both processes acting in the same population are rare. Keyfactor analysis (regression of population changes on possible causal factors) and time-series analysis are often used to investigate the presence of density dependence, but such approaches may be biased and provide no information on actual demographic rates. Here we report on both density-dependent and density-independent effects in a murid rodent pest species, the multimammate rat Mastomys natalensis (Smith, 1834), using statistical capture-recapture models. Both effects occur simultaneously, but we also demonstrate that they do not affect all demographic rates in the same way. We have incorporated the obtained estimates of demographic rates in a population dynamics model and show that the observed dynamics are affected by stabilizing nonlinear density-dependent components coupled with strong deterministic and stochastic seasonal components.

Density-Dependent Regulation of Brook Trout Population Dynamics along a Core-Periphery Distribution Gradient in a Central Appalachian Watershed

PubMed Central

Huntsman, Brock M.; Petty, J. Todd

2014-01-01

Spatial population models predict strong density-dependence and relatively stable population dynamics near the core of a species' distribution with increasing variance and importance of density-independent processes operating towards the population periphery. Using a 10-year data set and an information-theoretic approach, we tested a series of candidate models considering density-dependent and density-independent controls on brook trout population dynamics across a core-periphery distribution gradient within a central Appalachian watershed. We sampled seven sub-populations with study sites ranging in drainage area from 1.3–60 km2 and long-term average densities ranging from 0.335–0.006 trout/m. Modeled response variables included per capita population growth rate of young-of-the-year, adult, and total brook trout. We also quantified a stock-recruitment relationship for the headwater population and coefficients of variability in mean trout density for all sub-populations over time. Density-dependent regulation was prevalent throughout the study area regardless of stream size. However, density-independent temperature models carried substantial weight and likely reflect the effect of year-to-year variability in water temperature on trout dispersal between cold tributaries and warm main stems. Estimated adult carrying capacities decreased exponentially with increasing stream size from 0.24 trout/m in headwaters to 0.005 trout/m in the main stem. Finally, temporal variance in brook trout population size was lowest in the high-density headwater population, tended to peak in mid-sized streams and declined slightly in the largest streams with the lowest densities. Our results provide support for the hypothesis that local density-dependent processes have a strong control on brook trout dynamics across the entire distribution gradient. However, the mechanisms of regulation likely shift from competition for limited food and space in headwater streams to competition for thermal refugia in larger main stems. It also is likely that source-sink dynamics and dispersal from small headwater habitats may partially influence brook trout population dynamics in the main stem. PMID:24618602

Fundamental population-productivity relationships can be modified through density-dependent feedbacks of life-history evolution.

PubMed

Kuparinen, Anna; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

2014-12-01

The evolution of life histories over contemporary time scales will almost certainly affect population demography. One important pathway for such eco-evolutionary interactions is the density-dependent regulation of population dynamics. Here, we investigate how fisheries-induced evolution (FIE) might alter density-dependent population-productivity relationships. To this end, we simulate the eco-evolutionary dynamics of an Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) population under fishing, followed by a period of recovery in the absence of fishing. FIE is associated with increases in juvenile production, the ratio of juveniles to mature population biomass, and the ratio of the mature population biomass relative to the total population biomass. In contrast, net reproductive rate (R 0 ) and per capita population growth rate (r) decline concomitantly with evolution. Our findings suggest that FIE can substantially modify the fundamental population-productivity relationships that underlie density-dependent population regulation and that form the primary population-dynamical basis for fisheries stock-assessment projections. From a conservation and fisheries-rebuilding perspective, we find that FIE reduces R 0 and r, the two fundamental correlates of population recovery ability and inversely extinction probability.

Predation and fragmentation portrayed in the statistical structure of prey time series

PubMed Central

Hendrichsen, Ditte K; Topping, Chris J; Forchhammer, Mads C

2009-01-01

Background Statistical autoregressive analyses of direct and delayed density dependence are widespread in ecological research. The models suggest that changes in ecological factors affecting density dependence, like predation and landscape heterogeneity are directly portrayed in the first and second order autoregressive parameters, and the models are therefore used to decipher complex biological patterns. However, independent tests of model predictions are complicated by the inherent variability of natural populations, where differences in landscape structure, climate or species composition prevent controlled repeated analyses. To circumvent this problem, we applied second-order autoregressive time series analyses to data generated by a realistic agent-based computer model. The model simulated life history decisions of individual field voles under controlled variations in predator pressure and landscape fragmentation. Analyses were made on three levels: comparisons between predated and non-predated populations, between populations exposed to different types of predators and between populations experiencing different degrees of habitat fragmentation. Results The results are unambiguous: Changes in landscape fragmentation and the numerical response of predators are clearly portrayed in the statistical time series structure as predicted by the autoregressive model. Populations without predators displayed significantly stronger negative direct density dependence than did those exposed to predators, where direct density dependence was only moderately negative. The effects of predation versus no predation had an even stronger effect on the delayed density dependence of the simulated prey populations. In non-predated prey populations, the coefficients of delayed density dependence were distinctly positive, whereas they were negative in predated populations. Similarly, increasing the degree of fragmentation of optimal habitat available to the prey was accompanied with a shift in the delayed density dependence, from strongly negative to gradually becoming less negative. Conclusion We conclude that statistical second-order autoregressive time series analyses are capable of deciphering interactions within and across trophic levels and their effect on direct and delayed density dependence. PMID:19419539

Density Dependence and Growth Rate: Evolutionary Effects on Resistance Development to Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis).

PubMed

Martinez, Jeannette C; Caprio, Michael A; Friedenberg, Nicholas A

2018-02-09

It has long been recognized that pest population dynamics can affect the durability of a pesticide, but dose remains the primary component of insect resistance management (IRM). For transgenic pesticidal traits such as Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis Berliner (Bacillales: Bacillaceae)), dose (measured as the mortality of susceptibles caused by a toxin) is a relatively fixed characteristic and often falls below the standard definition of high dose. Hence, it is important to understand how pest population dynamics modify durability and what targets they present for IRM. We used a deterministic model of a generic arthropod pest to examine how timing and strength of density dependence interacted with population growth rate and Bt mortality to affect time to resistance. As in previous studies, durability typically reached a minimum at intermediate doses. However, high population growth rates could eliminate benefits of high dose. The timing of density dependence had a more subtle effect. If density dependence operated simultaneously with Bt mortality, durability was insensitive to its strengths. However, if density dependence was driven by postselection densities, decreasing its strength could increase durability. The strength of density dependence could affect durability of both single traits and pyramids, but its influence depended on the timing of density dependence and size of the refuge. Our findings suggest the utility of a broader definition of high dose, one that incorporates population-dynamic context. That maximum growth rates and timing and strength of interactions causing density dependent mortality can all affect durability, also highlights the need for ecologically integrated approaches to IRM research. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Anthropogenically-Mediated Density Dependence in a Declining Farmland Bird

PubMed Central

Dunn, Jenny C.; Hamer, Keith C.; Benton, Tim G.

2015-01-01

Land management intrinsically influences the distribution of animals and can consequently alter the potential for density-dependent processes to act within populations. For declining species, high densities of breeding territories are typically considered to represent productive populations. However, as density-dependent effects of food limitation or predator pressure may occur (especially when species are dependent upon separate nesting and foraging habitats), high territory density may limit per-capita productivity. Here, we use a declining but widespread European farmland bird, the yellowhammer Emberiza citrinella L., as a model system to test whether higher territory densities result in lower fledging success, parental provisioning rates or nestling growth rates compared to lower densities. Organic landscapes held higher territory densities, but nests on organic farms fledged fewer nestlings, translating to a 5 times higher rate of population shrinkage on organic farms compared to conventional. In addition, when parental provisioning behaviour was not restricted by predation risk (i.e., at times of low corvid activity), nestling provisioning rates were higher at lower territory densities, resulting in a much greater increase in nestling mass in low density areas, suggesting that food limitation occurred at high densities. These findings in turn suggest an ecological trap, whereby preferred nesting habitat does not provide sufficient food for rearing nestlings at high population density, creating a population sink. Habitat management for farmland birds should focus not simply on creating a high nesting density, but also on ensuring heterogeneous habitats to provide food resources in close proximity to nesting birds, even if this occurs through potentially restricting overall nest density but increasing population-level breeding success. PMID:26431173

Long-term persistence, density dependence and effects of climate change on rosyside dace (Cyprinidae)

Treesearch

Gary D. Grossman; Gary Sundin; Robert E. Ratajczak

2016-01-01

SummaryWe used long-term population data for rosyside dace (Clinostomus funduloides), a numerically dominant member of a stochastically organised fish assemblage, to evaluate the relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent processes to population...

Local density regulates migratory songbird reproductive success through effects on double-brooding and nest predation.

PubMed

Woodworth, Bradley K; Wheelwright, Nathaniel T; Newman, Amy E M; Norris, D Ryan

2017-08-01

Knowledge of the density-dependent processes that regulate animal populations is key to understanding, predicting, and conserving populations. In migratory birds, density-dependence is most often studied during the breeding season, yet we still lack a robust understanding of the reproductive traits through which density influences individual reproductive success. We used 27-yr of detailed, individual-level productivity data from an island-breeding population of Savannah sparrows Passerculus sandwichensis to evaluate effects of local and total annual population density on female reproductive success. Local density (number of neighbors within 50 m of a female's nest) had stronger effects on the number of young fledged than did total annual population density. Females nesting in areas of high local density were more likely to suffer nest predation and less likely to initiate and fledge a second clutch, which led to fewer young fledged in a season. Fledging fewer young subsequently decreased the likelihood of a female recruiting offspring into the breeding population in a subsequent year. Collectively, these results provide insight into the scale and reproductive mechanisms mediating density-dependent reproductive success and fitness in songbirds. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Dispersal-mediated effect of microhabitat availability and density dependence determine population dynamics of a forest floor web spider.

PubMed

Takada, Mayura B; Miyashita, Tadashi

2014-09-01

Landscapes in nature can be viewed as a continuum of small total habitable area with high fragmentation to widely spreading habitats. The dispersal-mediated rescue effect predominates in the former landscapes, while classical density-dependent processes generally prevail in widely spread habitats. A similar principle should be applied to populations of organisms utilizing microhabitats in limited supply. To test this hypothesis, we examined the population dynamics of a web spider, Neriene brongersmai, in 16 populations with varying degrees of microhabitat availability, and we explored whether: (i) high microhabitat availability improves survival rate during density-independent movement, while the resultant high density reduces survival rate in a density-dependent manner; and (ii) temporal population stability increases with microhabitat availability at the population level. Furthermore, we conducted two types of field experiments to verify whether high microhabitat availability actually reduces mortality associated with web-site movement. Field observations revealed that demographic change in N. brongersmai populations was affected by three factors at different stages, namely the microhabitat limitation from the early to late juvenile stages, the density dependence from the late juvenile to adult stages and the food limitation from the adult to the next early juvenile stages. In addition, there was a tendency for a positive association between population stability and microhabitat availability at the population level. A small-scale experiment, where the frequency of spider web relocation was equalized artificially, revealed that high microhabitat availability elevated the survival rate during a movement event between web-sites. The larger spatiotemporal scale experiment also revealed an improved spider survival rate following treatment with high microhabitat availability, even though spider density was kept at a relatively low level. The population dynamics of N. brongersmai can be determined primarily by density-independent processes based on web-site fragmentation and density-dependent processes driven by interference competition. We conclude that depending on the amount of habitat resources, the relative importance of the two contrasting paradigms-equilibrium and non-equilibrium-appears to vary, even within a particular system. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Density-dependent selection on mate search and evolution of Allee effects.

PubMed

Berec, Luděk; Kramer, Andrew M; Bernhauerová, Veronika; Drake, John M

2018-01-01

Sexually reproducing organisms require males and females to find each other. Increased difficulty of females finding mates as male density declines is the most frequently reported mechanism of Allee effects in animals. Evolving more effective mate search may alleviate Allee effects, but may depend on density regimes a population experiences. In particular, high-density populations may evolve mechanisms that induce Allee effects which become detrimental when populations are reduced and maintained at a low density. We develop an individual-based, eco-genetic model to study how mating systems and fitness trade-offs interact with changes in population density to drive evolution of the rate at which males or females search for mates. Finite mate search rate triggers Allee effects in our model and we explore how these Allee effects respond to such evolution. We allow a population to adapt to several population density regimes and examine whether high-density populations are likely to reverse adaptations attained at low densities. We find density-dependent selection in most of scenarios, leading to search rates that result in lower Allee thresholds in populations kept at lower densities. This mainly occurs when fecundity costs are imposed on mate search, and provides an explanation for why Allee effects are often observed in anthropogenically rare species. Optimizing selection, where the attained trait value minimizes the Allee threshold independent of population density, depended on the trade-off between search and survival, combined with monogamy when females were searching. Other scenarios led to runaway selection on the mate search rate, including evolutionary suicide. Trade-offs involved in mate search may thus be crucial to determining how density influences the evolution of Allee effects. Previous studies did not examine evolution of a trait related to the strength of Allee effects under density variation. We emphasize the crucial role that mating systems, fitness trade-offs and the evolving sex have in determining the density threshold for population persistence, in particular since evolution need not always take the Allee threshold to its minimum value. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Density dependence governs when population responses to multiple stressors are magnified or mitigated.

PubMed

Hodgson, Emma E; Essington, Timothy E; Halpern, Benjamin S

2017-10-01

Population endangerment typically arises from multiple, potentially interacting anthropogenic stressors. Extensive research has investigated the consequences of multiple stressors on organisms, frequently focusing on individual life stages. Less is known about population-level consequences of exposure to multiple stressors, especially when exposure varies through life. We provide the first theoretical basis for identifying species at risk of magnified effects from multiple stressors across life history. By applying a population modeling framework, we reveal conditions under which population responses from stressors applied to distinct life stages are either magnified (synergistic) or mitigated. We find that magnification or mitigation critically depends on the shape of density dependence, but not the life stage in which it occurs. Stressors are always magnified when density dependence is linear or concave, and magnified or mitigated when it is convex. Using Bayesian numerical methods, we estimated the shape of density dependence for eight species across diverse taxa, finding support for all three shapes. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Density-dependent natal dispersal patterns in a leopard population recovering from over-harvest.

PubMed

Fattebert, Julien; Balme, Guy; Dickerson, Tristan; Slotow, Rob; Hunter, Luke

2015-01-01

Natal dispersal enables population connectivity, gene flow and metapopulation dynamics. In polygynous mammals, dispersal is typically male-biased. Classically, the 'mate competition', 'resource competition' and 'resident fitness' hypotheses predict density-dependent dispersal patterns, while the 'inbreeding avoidance' hypothesis posits density-independent dispersal. In a leopard (Panthera pardus) population recovering from over-harvest, we investigated the effect of sex, population density and prey biomass, on age of natal dispersal, distance dispersed, probability of emigration and dispersal success. Over an 11-year period, we tracked 35 subadult leopards using VHF and GPS telemetry. Subadult leopards initiated dispersal at 13.6 ± 0.4 months. Age at commencement of dispersal was positively density-dependent. Although males (11.0 ± 2.5 km) generally dispersed further than females (2.7 ± 0.4 km), some males exhibited opportunistic philopatry when the population was below capacity. All 13 females were philopatric, while 12 of 22 males emigrated. Male dispersal distance and emigration probability followed a quadratic relationship with population density, whereas female dispersal distance was inversely density-dependent. Eight of 12 known-fate females and 5 of 12 known-fate male leopards were successful in settling. Dispersal success did not vary with population density, prey biomass, and for males, neither between dispersal strategies (philopatry vs. emigration). Females formed matrilineal kin clusters, supporting the resident fitness hypothesis. Conversely, mate competition appeared the main driver for male leopard dispersal. We demonstrate that dispersal patterns changed over time, i.e. as the leopard population density increased. We conclude that conservation interventions that facilitated local demographic recovery in the study area also restored dispersal patterns disrupted by unsustainable harvesting, and that this indirectly improved connectivity among leopard populations over a larger landscape.

Density-Dependent Natal Dispersal Patterns in a Leopard Population Recovering from Over-Harvest

PubMed Central

Fattebert, Julien; Balme, Guy; Dickerson, Tristan; Slotow, Rob; Hunter, Luke

2015-01-01

Natal dispersal enables population connectivity, gene flow and metapopulation dynamics. In polygynous mammals, dispersal is typically male-biased. Classically, the ‘mate competition’, ‘resource competition’ and ‘resident fitness’ hypotheses predict density-dependent dispersal patterns, while the ‘inbreeding avoidance’ hypothesis posits density-independent dispersal. In a leopard (Panthera pardus) population recovering from over-harvest, we investigated the effect of sex, population density and prey biomass, on age of natal dispersal, distance dispersed, probability of emigration and dispersal success. Over an 11-year period, we tracked 35 subadult leopards using VHF and GPS telemetry. Subadult leopards initiated dispersal at 13.6 ± 0.4 months. Age at commencement of dispersal was positively density-dependent. Although males (11.0 ± 2.5 km) generally dispersed further than females (2.7 ± 0.4 km), some males exhibited opportunistic philopatry when the population was below capacity. All 13 females were philopatric, while 12 of 22 males emigrated. Male dispersal distance and emigration probability followed a quadratic relationship with population density, whereas female dispersal distance was inversely density-dependent. Eight of 12 known-fate females and 5 of 12 known-fate male leopards were successful in settling. Dispersal success did not vary with population density, prey biomass, and for males, neither between dispersal strategies (philopatry vs. emigration). Females formed matrilineal kin clusters, supporting the resident fitness hypothesis. Conversely, mate competition appeared the main driver for male leopard dispersal. We demonstrate that dispersal patterns changed over time, i.e. as the leopard population density increased. We conclude that conservation interventions that facilitated local demographic recovery in the study area also restored dispersal patterns disrupted by unsustainable harvesting, and that this indirectly improved connectivity among leopard populations over a larger landscape. PMID:25875293

Density-Dependent Growth in Invasive Lionfish (Pterois volitans)

PubMed Central

Benkwitt, Cassandra E.

2013-01-01

Direct demographic density dependence is necessary for population regulation and is a central concept in ecology, yet has not been studied in many invasive species, including any invasive marine fish. The red lionfish (Pterois volitans) is an invasive predatory marine fish that is undergoing exponential population growth throughout the tropical western Atlantic. Invasive lionfish threaten coral-reef ecosystems, but there is currently no evidence of any natural population control. Therefore, a manipulative field experiment was conducted to test for density dependence in lionfish. Juvenile lionfish densities were adjusted on small reefs and several demographic rates (growth, recruitment, immigration, and loss) were measured throughout an 8-week period. Invasive lionfish exhibited direct density dependence in individual growth rates, as lionfish grew slower at higher densities throughout the study. Individual growth in length declined linearly with increasing lionfish density, while growth in mass declined exponentially with increasing density. There was no evidence, however, for density dependence in recruitment, immigration, or loss (mortality plus emigration) of invasive lionfish. The observed density-dependent growth rates may have implications for which native species are susceptible to lionfish predation, as the size and type of prey that lionfish consume is directly related to their body size. The absence of density-dependent loss, however, contrasts with many native coral-reef fish species and suggests that for the foreseeable future manual removals may be the only effective local control of this invasion. PMID:23825604

Density-dependent growth in invasive Lionfish (Pterois volitans).

PubMed

Benkwitt, Cassandra E

2013-01-01

Direct demographic density dependence is necessary for population regulation and is a central concept in ecology, yet has not been studied in many invasive species, including any invasive marine fish. The red lionfish (Pterois volitans) is an invasive predatory marine fish that is undergoing exponential population growth throughout the tropical western Atlantic. Invasive lionfish threaten coral-reef ecosystems, but there is currently no evidence of any natural population control. Therefore, a manipulative field experiment was conducted to test for density dependence in lionfish. Juvenile lionfish densities were adjusted on small reefs and several demographic rates (growth, recruitment, immigration, and loss) were measured throughout an 8-week period. Invasive lionfish exhibited direct density dependence in individual growth rates, as lionfish grew slower at higher densities throughout the study. Individual growth in length declined linearly with increasing lionfish density, while growth in mass declined exponentially with increasing density. There was no evidence, however, for density dependence in recruitment, immigration, or loss (mortality plus emigration) of invasive lionfish. The observed density-dependent growth rates may have implications for which native species are susceptible to lionfish predation, as the size and type of prey that lionfish consume is directly related to their body size. The absence of density-dependent loss, however, contrasts with many native coral-reef fish species and suggests that for the foreseeable future manual removals may be the only effective local control of this invasion.

An evaluation of density-dependent and density-independent influences on population growth rates in Weddell seals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rotella, J.J.; Link, W.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Hadley, G.L.; Garrott, R.A.; Proffitt, K.M.

2009-01-01

Much of the existing literature that evaluates the roles of density-dependent and density-independent factors on population dynamics has been called into question in recent years because measurement errors were not properly dealt with in analyses. Using state-space models to account for measurement errors, we evaluated a set of competing models for a 22-year time series of mark-resight estimates of abundance for a breeding population of female Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) studied in Erebus Bay, Antarctica. We tested for evidence of direct density dependence in growth rates and evaluated whether equilibrium population size was related to seasonal sea-ice extent and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We found strong evidence of negative density dependence in annual growth rates for a population whose estimated size ranged from 438 to 623 females during the study. Based on Bayes factors, a density-dependence-only model was favored over models that also included en! vironmental covariates. According to the favored model, the population had a stationary distribution with a mean of 497 females (SD = 60.5), an expected growth rate of 1.10 (95% credible interval 1.08-1.15) when population size was 441 females, and a rate of 0.90 (95% credible interval 0.87-0.93) for a population of 553 females. A model including effects of SOI did receive some support and indicated a positive relationship between SOI and population size. However, effects of SOI were not large, and including the effect did not greatly reduce our estimate of process variation. We speculate that direct density dependence occurred because rates of adult survival, breeding, and temporary emigration were affected by limitations on per capita food resources and space for parturition and pup-rearing. To improve understanding of the relative roles of various demographic components and their associated vital rates to population growth rate, mark-recapture methods can be applied that incorporate both environmental covariates and the seal abundance estimates that were developed here. An improved understanding of why vital rates change with changing population abundance will only come as we develop a better understanding of the processes affecting marine food resources in the Southern Ocean.

Geographic variation in density-dependent dynamics impacts the synchronizing effect of dispersal and regional stochasticity

Treesearch

Andrew M. Liebhold; Derek M. Johnson; Ottar N. Bj& #248rnstad

2006-01-01

Explanations for the ubiquitous presence of spatially synchronous population dynamics have assumed that density-dependent processes governing the dynamics of local populations are identical among disjunct populations, and low levels of dispersal or small amounts of regionalized stochasticity ("Moran effect") can act to synchronize populations. In this study...

Demographic models reveal the shape of density dependence for a specialist insect herbivore on variable host plants.

PubMed

Miller, Tom E X

2007-07-01

1. It is widely accepted that density-dependent processes play an important role in most natural populations. However, persistent challenges in our understanding of density-dependent population dynamics include evaluating the shape of the relationship between density and demographic rates (linear, concave, convex), and identifying extrinsic factors that can mediate this relationship. 2. I studied the population dynamics of the cactus bug Narnia pallidicornis on host plants (Opuntia imbricata) that varied naturally in relative reproductive effort (RRE, the proportion of meristems allocated to reproduction), an important plant quality trait. I manipulated per-plant cactus bug densities, quantified subsequent dynamics, and fit stage-structured models to the experimental data to ask if and how density influences demographic parameters. 3. In the field experiment, I found that populations with variable starting densities quickly converged upon similar growth trajectories. In the model-fitting analyses, the data strongly supported a model that defined the juvenile cactus bug retention parameter (joint probability of surviving and not dispersing) as a nonlinear decreasing function of density. The estimated shape of this relationship shifted from concave to convex with increasing host-plant RRE. 4. The results demonstrate that host-plant traits are critical sources of variation in the strength and shape of density dependence in insects, and highlight the utility of integrated experimental-theoretical approaches for identifying processes underlying patterns of change in natural populations.

Measuring the transmission dynamics of a sexually transmitted disease

PubMed Central

Ryder, Jonathan J.; Webberley, K. Mary; Boots, Michael; Knell, Robert J.

2005-01-01

Sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) occur throughout the animal kingdom and are generally thought to affect host population dynamics and evolution very differently from other directly transmitted infectious diseases. In particular, STDs are not thought to have threshold densities for persistence or to be able to regulate host population density independently; they may also have the potential to cause host extinction. However, these expectations follow from a theory that assumes that the rate of STD spread depends on the proportion (rather than the density) of individuals infected in a population. We show here that this key assumption (“frequency dependence”), which has not previously been tested in an animal STD system, is invalid in a simple and general experimental model. Transmission of an STD in the two-spot ladybird depended more on the density of infected individuals in the study population than on their frequency. We argue that, in this system, and in many other animal STDs in which population density affects sexual contact rate, population dynamics may exhibit some characteristics that are normally reserved for diseases with density-dependent transmission. PMID:16204382

Modelling interactions of toxicants and density dependence in wildlife populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schipper, Aafke M.; Hendriks, Harrie W.M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.

2013-01-01

1. A major challenge in the conservation of threatened and endangered species is to predict population decline and design appropriate recovery measures. However, anthropogenic impacts on wildlife populations are notoriously difficult to predict due to potentially nonlinear responses and interactions with natural ecological processes like density dependence. 2. Here, we incorporated both density dependence and anthropogenic stressors in a stage-based matrix population model and parameterized it for a density-dependent population of peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus exposed to two anthropogenic toxicants [dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)]. Log-logistic exposure–response relationships were used to translate toxicant concentrations in peregrine falcon eggs to effects on fecundity. Density dependence was modelled as the probability of a nonbreeding bird acquiring a breeding territory as a function of the current number of breeders. 3. The equilibrium size of the population, as represented by the number of breeders, responded nonlinearly to increasing toxicant concentrations, showing a gradual decrease followed by a relatively steep decline. Initially, toxicant-induced reductions in population size were mitigated by an alleviation of the density limitation, that is, an increasing probability of territory acquisition. Once population density was no longer limiting, the toxicant impacts were no longer buffered by an increasing proportion of nonbreeders shifting to the breeding stage, resulting in a strong decrease in the equilibrium number of breeders. 4. Median critical exposure concentrations, that is, median toxicant concentrations in eggs corresponding with an equilibrium population size of zero, were 33 and 46 μg g−1 fresh weight for DDE and PBDEs, respectively. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our modelling results showed that particular life stages of a density-limited population may be relatively insensitive to toxicant impacts until a critical threshold is crossed. In our study population, toxicant-induced changes were observed in the equilibrium number of nonbreeding rather than breeding birds, suggesting that monitoring efforts including both life stages are needed to timely detect population declines. Further, by combining quantitative exposure–response relationships with a wildlife demographic model, we provided a method to quantify critical toxicant thresholds for wildlife population persistence.

A generalized population dynamics model for reproductive interference with absolute density dependence.

PubMed

Kyogoku, Daisuke; Sota, Teiji

2017-05-17

Interspecific mating interactions, or reproductive interference, can affect population dynamics, species distribution and abundance. Previous population dynamics models have assumed that the impact of frequency-dependent reproductive interference depends on the relative abundances of species. However, this assumption could be an oversimplification inappropriate for making quantitative predictions. Therefore, a more general model to forecast population dynamics in the presence of reproductive interference is required. Here we developed a population dynamics model to describe the absolute density dependence of reproductive interference, which appears likely when encounter rate between individuals is important. Our model (i) can produce diverse shapes of isoclines depending on parameter values and (ii) predicts weaker reproductive interference when absolute density is low. These novel characteristics can create conditions where coexistence is stable and independent from the initial conditions. We assessed the utility of our model in an empirical study using an experimental pair of seed beetle species, Callosobruchus maculatus and Callosobruchus chinensis. Reproductive interference became stronger with increasing total beetle density even when the frequencies of the two species were kept constant. Our model described the effects of absolute density and showed a better fit to the empirical data than the existing model overall.

Dispersal, density dependence, and population dynamics of a fungal microbe on leaf surfaces.

PubMed

Woody, Scott T; Ives, Anthony R; Nordheim, Erik V; Andrews, John H

2007-06-01

Despite the ubiquity and importance of microbes in nature, little is known about their natural population dynamics, especially for those that occupy terrestrial habitats. Here we investigate the dynamics of the yeast-like fungus Aureobasidium pullulans (Ap) on apple leaves in an orchard. We asked three questions. (1) Is variation in fungal population density among leaves caused by variation in leaf carrying capacities and strong density-dependent population growth that maintains densities near carrying capacity? (2) Do resident populations have competitive advantages over immigrant cells? (3) Do Ap dynamics differ at different times during the growing season? To address these questions, we performed two experiments at different times in the growing season. Both experiments used a 2 x 2 factorial design: treatment 1 removed fungal cells from leaves to reveal density-dependent population growth, and treatment 2 inoculated leaves with an Ap strain engineered to express green fluorescent protein (GFP), which made it possible to track the fate of immigrant cells. The experiments showed that natural populations of Ap vary greatly in density due to sustained differences in carrying capacities among leaves. The maintenance of populations close to carrying capacities indicates strong density-dependent processes. Furthermore, resident populations are strongly competitive against immigrants, while immigrants have little impact on residents. Finally, statistical models showed high population growth rates of resident cells in one experiment but not in the other, suggesting that Ap experiences relatively "good" and "bad" periods for population growth. This picture of Ap dynamics conforms to commonly held, but rarely demonstrated, expectations of microbe dynamics in nature. It also highlights the importance of local processes, as opposed to immigration, in determining the abundance and dynamics of microbes on surfaces in terrestrial systems.

Factors leading to different viability predictions for a grizzly bear data set

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mills, L.S.; Hayes, S.G.; Wisdom, M.J.; Citta, J.; Mattson, D.J.; Murphy, K.

1996-01-01

Population viability analysis programs are being used increasingly in research and management applications, but there has not been a systematic study of the congruence of different program predictions based on a single data set. We performed such an analysis using four population viability analysis computer programs: GAPPS, INMAT, RAMAS/AGE, and VORTEX. The standardized demographic rates used in all programs were generalized from hypothetical increasing and decreasing grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) populations. Idiosyncracies of input format for each program led to minor differences in intrinsic growth rates that translated into striking differences in estimates of extinction rates and expected population size. In contrast, the addition of demographic stochasticity, environmental stochasticity, and inbreeding costs caused only a small divergence in viability predictions. But, the addition of density dependence caused large deviations between the programs despite our best attempts to use the same density-dependent functions. Population viability programs differ in how density dependence is incorporated, and the necessary functions are difficult to parameterize accurately. Thus, we recommend that unless data clearly suggest a particular density-dependent model, predictions based on population viability analysis should include at least one scenario without density dependence. Further, we describe output metrics that may differ between programs; development of future software could benefit from standardized input and output formats across different programs.

Density dependence in group dynamics of a highly social mongoose, Suricata suricatta.

PubMed

Bateman, Andrew W; Ozgul, Arpat; Coulson, Tim; Clutton-Brock, Tim H

2012-05-01

1. For social species, the link between individual behaviour and population dynamics is mediated by group-level demography. 2. Populations of obligate cooperative breeders are structured into social groups, which may be subject to inverse density dependence (Allee effects) that result from a dependence on conspecific helpers, but evidence for population-wide Allee effects is rare. 3. We use field data from a long-term study of cooperative meerkats (Suricata suricatta; Schreber, 1776) - a species for which local Allee effects are not reflected in population-level dynamics - to empirically model interannual group dynamics. 4. Using phenomenological population models, modified to incorporate environmental conditions and potential Allee effects, we first investigate overall patterns of group dynamics and find support only for conventional density dependence that increases after years of low rainfall. 5. To explain the observed patterns, we examine specific demographic rates and assess their contributions to overall group dynamics. Although per-capita meerkat mortality is subject to a component Allee effect, it contributes relatively little to observed variation in group dynamics, and other (conventionally density dependent) demographic rates - especially emigration - govern group dynamics. 6. Our findings highlight the need to consider demographic processes and density dependence in subpopulations before drawing conclusions about how behaviour affects population processes in socially complex systems. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

What makes a species common? No evidence of density-dependent recruitment or mortality of the sea urchin Diadema antillarum after the 1983-1984 mass mortality.

PubMed

Levitan, Don R; Edmunds, Peter J; Levitan, Keeha E

2014-05-01

A potential consequence of individuals compensating for density-dependent processes is that rare or infrequent events can produce profound and long-term shifts in species abundance. In 1983-1984 a mass mortality event reduced the numbers of the abundant sea urchin Diadema antillarum by 95-99% throughout the Caribbean and western Atlantic. Following this event, the abundance of macroalgae increased and the few surviving D. antillarum responded by increasing in body size and fecundity. These initial observations suggested that populations of D. antillarum could recover rapidly following release from food limitation. In contrast, published studies of field manipulations indicate that this species had traits making it resistant to density-dependent effects on offspring production and adult mortality; this evidence raises the possibility that density-independent processes might keep populations at a diminished level. Decadal-scale (1983-2011) monitoring of recruitment, mortality, population density and size structure of D. antillarum from St John, US Virgin Islands, indicates that population density has remained relatively stable and more than an order of magnitude lower than that before the mortality event of 1983-1984. We detected no evidence of density-dependent mortality or recruitment since this mortality event. In this location, model estimates of equilibrium population density, assuming density-independent processes and based on parameters generated over the first decade following the mortality event, accurately predict the low population density 20 years later (2011). We find no evidence to support the notion that this historically dominant species will rebound from this temporally brief, but spatially widespread, perturbation.

Critical patch size generated by Allee effect in gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.)

Treesearch

E. Vercken; A.M. Kramer; P.C. Tobin; J.M. Drake

2011-01-01

Allee effects are important dynamical mechanisms in small-density populations in which per capita population growth rate increases with density. When positive density dependence is sufficiently severe (a 'strong' Allee effect), a critical density arises below which populations do not persist. For spatially distributed populations subject to dispersal, theory...

Integration of Density Dependence and Concentration Response Models Provides an Ecologically Relevant Assessment of Populations Exposed to Toxicants

EPA Science Inventory

The assessment of toxic exposure on wildlife populations involves the integration of organism level effects measured in toxicity tests (e.g., chronic life cycle) and population models. These modeling exercises typically ignore density dependence, primarily because information on ...

Complex life cycles and density dependence: assessing the contribution of egg mortality to amphibian declines.

PubMed

Vonesh, James R; De la Cruz, Omar

2002-11-01

In the last decade there has been increasing evidence of amphibian declines from relatively pristine areas. Some declines are hypothesized to be the result of egg mortality caused by factors such as elevated solar UV-B irradiation, chemical pollutants, pathogenic fungi, and climate change. However, the population-level consequences of egg mortality have not been examined explicitly, and may be complicated by density dependence in intervening life-history stages. Here we develop a demographic model for two amphibians with contrasting life-history strategies, Bufo boreas and Ambystoma macrodactylum. We then use the complementary approaches of elasticity and limitation to examine the relationships among stage-specific survival rates, larval-stage density dependence and amphibian population dynamics. Elasticity analyses showed that for a range of density dependence scenarios both species were more sensitive to changes in post-embryonic survival parameters, particularly juvenile survival, than to egg survival, suggesting that mortality of later stages may play an important role in driving declines. Limitation analyses revealed that larval density dependence can dramatically alter the consequences of early mortality, reducing or even reversing the expected population-level effects of egg mortality. Thus, greater focus on later life stages and density dependence is called for to accurately assess how stressors are likely to affect amphibian populations of conservation concern.

Exposing extinction risk analysis to pathogens: Is disease just another form of density dependence?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, L.R.; McCallum, H.; Lafferty, K.D.; Sabo, J.L.; Dobson, A.

2005-01-01

In the United States and several other countries, the development of population viability analyses (PVA) is a legal requirement of any species survival plan developed for threatened and endangered species. Despite the importance of pathogens in natural populations, little attention has been given to host-pathogen dynamics in PVA. To study the effect of infectious pathogens on extinction risk estimates generated from PVA, we review and synthesize the relevance of host-pathogen dynamics in analyses of extinction risk. We then develop a stochastic, density-dependent host-parasite model to investigate the effects of disease on the persistence of endangered populations. We show that this model converges on a Ricker model of density dependence under a suite of limiting assumptions, including a high probability that epidemics will arrive and occur. Using this modeling framework, we then quantify: (1) dynamic differences between time series generated by disease and Ricker processes with the same parameters; (2) observed probabilities of quasi-extinction for populations exposed to disease or self-limitation; and (3) bias in probabilities of quasi-extinction estimated by density-independent PVAs when populations experience either form of density dependence. Our results suggest two generalities about the relationships among disease, PVA, and the management of endangered species. First, disease more strongly increases variability in host abundance and, thus, the probability of quasi-extinction, than does self-limitation. This result stems from the fact that the effects and the probability of occurrence of disease are both density dependent. Second, estimates of quasi-extinction are more often overly optimistic for populations experiencing disease than for those subject to self-limitation. Thus, although the results of density-independent PVAs may be relatively robust to some particular assumptions about density dependence, they are less robust when endangered populations are known to be susceptible to disease. If potential management actions involve manipulating pathogens, then it may be useful to model disease explicitly. ?? 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

Density-dependent intraspecific aggression regulates survival in northern Yellowstone wolves (Canis lupus).

PubMed

Cubaynes, Sarah; MacNulty, Daniel R; Stahler, Daniel R; Quimby, Kira A; Smith, Douglas W; Coulson, Tim

2014-11-01

Understanding the population dynamics of top-predators is essential to assess their impact on ecosystems and to guide their management. Key to this understanding is identifying the mechanisms regulating vital rates. Determining the influence of density on survival is necessary to understand the extent to which human-caused mortality is compensatory or additive. In wolves (Canis lupus), empirical evidence for density-dependent survival is lacking. Dispersal is considered the principal way in which wolves adjust their numbers to prey supply or compensate for human exploitation. However, studies to date have primarily focused on exploited wolf populations, in which density-dependent mechanisms are likely weak due to artificially low wolf densities. Using 13 years of data on 280 collared wolves in Yellowstone National Park, we assessed the effect of wolf density, prey abundance and population structure, as well as winter severity, on age-specific survival in two areas (prey-rich vs. prey-poor) of the national park. We further analysed cause-specific mortality and explored the factors driving intraspecific aggression in the prey-rich northern area of the park. Overall, survival rates decreased during the study. In northern Yellowstone, density dependence regulated adult survival through an increase in intraspecific aggression, independent of prey availability. In the interior of the park, adult survival was less variable and density-independent, despite reduced prey availability. There was no effect of prey population structure in northern Yellowstone, or of winter severity in either area. Survival was similar among yearlings and adults, but lower for adults older than 6 years. Our results indicate that density-dependent intraspecific aggression is a major driver of adult wolf survival in northern Yellowstone, suggesting intrinsic density-dependent mechanisms have the potential to regulate wolf populations at high ungulate densities. When low prey availability or high removal rates maintain wolves at lower densities, limited inter-pack interactions may prevent density-dependent survival, consistent with our findings in the interior of the park. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Detection of density dependence requires density manipulations and calculation of lambda.

PubMed

Fowler, N L; Overath, R Deborah; Pease, Craig M

2006-03-01

To investigate density-dependent population regulation in the perennial bunchgrass Bouteloua rigidiseta, we experimentally manipulated density by removing adults or adding seeds to replicate quadrats in a natural population for three annual intervals. We monitored the adjacent control quadrats for 14 annual intervals. We constructed a population projection matrix for each quadrat in each interval, calculated lambda, and did a life table response experiment (LTRE) analysis. We tested the effects of density upon lambda by comparing experimental and control quadrats, and by an analysis of the 15-year observational data set. As measured by effects on lambda and on N(t+1/Nt in the experimental treatments, negative density dependence was strong: the population was being effectively regulated. The relative contributions of different matrix elements to treatment effect on lambda differed among years and treatments; overall the pattern was one of small contributions by many different life cycle stages. In contrast, density dependence could not be detected using only the observational (control quadrats) data, even though this data set covered a much longer time span. Nor did experimental effects on separate matrix elements reach statistical significance. These results suggest that ecologists may fail to detect density dependence when it is present if they have only descriptive, not experimental, data, do not have data for the entire life cycle, or analyze life cycle components separately.

Changes in seasonal climate outpace compensatory density-dependence in eastern brook trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bassar, Ronald D.; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Nislow, Keith H.; Whiteley, Andrew R.

2016-01-01

Understanding how multiple extrinsic (density-independent) factors and intrinsic (density-dependent) mechanisms influence population dynamics has become increasingly urgent in the face of rapidly changing climates. It is particularly unclear how multiple extrinsic factors with contrasting effects among seasons are related to declines in population numbers and changes in mean body size and whether there is a strong role for density-dependence. The primary goal of this study was to identify the roles of seasonal variation in climate driven environmental direct effects (mean stream flow and temperature) versus density-dependence on population size and mean body size in eastern brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We use data from a 10-year capture-mark-recapture study of eastern brook trout in four streams in Western Massachusetts, USA to parameterize a discrete-time population projection model. The model integrates matrix modeling techniques used to characterize discrete population structures (age, habitat type and season) with integral projection models (IPMs) that characterize demographic rates as continuous functions of organismal traits (in this case body size). Using both stochastic and deterministic analyses we show that decreases in population size are due to changes in stream flow and temperature and that these changes are larger than what can be compensated for through density-dependent responses. We also show that the declines are due mostly to increasing mean stream temperatures decreasing the survival of the youngest age class. In contrast, increases in mean body size over the same period are the result of indirect changes in density with a lesser direct role of climate-driven environmental change.

Disentangling the effects of climate, density dependence, and harvest on an iconic large herbivore's population dynamics.

PubMed

Koons, David N; Colchero, Fernando; Hersey, Kent; Gimenez, Olivier

2015-06-01

Understanding the relative effects of climate, harvest, and density dependence on population dynamics is critical for guiding sound population management, especially for ungulates in arid and semiarid environments experiencing climate change. To address these issues for bison in southern Utah, USA, we applied a Bayesian state-space model to a 72-yr time series of abundance counts. While accounting for known harvest (as well as live removal) from the population, we found that the bison population in southern Utah exhibited a strong potential to grow from low density (β0 = 0.26; Bayesian credible interval based on 95% of the highest posterior density [BCI] = 0.19-0.33), and weak but statistically significant density dependence (β1 = -0.02, BCI = -0.04 to -0.004). Early spring temperatures also had strong positive effects on population growth (Pfat1 = 0.09, BCI = 0.04-0.14), much more so than precipitation and other temperature-related variables (model weight > three times more than that for other climate variables). Although we hypothesized that harvest is the primary driving force of bison population dynamics in southern Utah, our elasticity analysis indicated that changes in early spring temperature could have a greater relative effect on equilibrium abundance than either harvest or. the strength of density dependence. Our findings highlight the utility of incorporating elasticity analyses into state-space population models, and the need to include climatic processes in wildlife management policies and planning.

Density-dependent home-range size revealed by spatially explicit capture–recapture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Efford, M.G.; Dawson, Deanna K.; Jhala, Y.V.; Qureshi, Q.

2016-01-01

The size of animal home ranges often varies inversely with population density among populations of a species. This fact has implications for population monitoring using spatially explicit capture–recapture (SECR) models, in which both the scale of home-range movements σ and population density D usually appear as parameters, and both may vary among populations. It will often be appropriate to model a structural relationship between population-specific values of these parameters, rather than to assume independence. We suggest re-parameterizing the SECR model using kp = σp √Dp, where kp relates to the degree of overlap between home ranges and the subscript p distinguishes populations. We observe that kp is often nearly constant for populations spanning a range of densities. This justifies fitting a model in which the separate kp are replaced by the single parameter k and σp is a density-dependent derived parameter. Continuous density-dependent spatial variation in σ may also be modelled, using a scaled non-Euclidean distance between detectors and the locations of animals. We illustrate these methods with data from automatic photography of tigers (Panthera tigris) across India, in which the variation is among populations, from mist-netting of ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapilla) in Maryland, USA, in which the variation is within a single population over time, and from live-trapping of brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) in New Zealand, modelling spatial variation within one population. Possible applications and limitations of the methods are discussed. A model in which kp is constant, while density varies, provides a parsimonious null model for SECR. The parameter k of the null model is a concise summary of the empirical relationship between home-range size and density that is useful in comparative studies. We expect deviations from this model, particularly the dependence of kp on covariates, to be biologically interesting.

Evolution in population parameters: density-dependent selection or density-dependent fitness?

PubMed

Travis, Joseph; Leips, Jeff; Rodd, F Helen

2013-05-01

Density-dependent selection is one of earliest topics of joint interest to both ecologists and evolutionary biologists and thus occupies an important position in the histories of these disciplines. This joint interest is driven by the fact that density-dependent selection is the simplest form of feedback between an ecological effect of an organism's own making (crowding due to sustained population growth) and the selective response to the resulting conditions. This makes density-dependent selection perhaps the simplest process through which we see the full reciprocity between ecology and evolution. In this article, we begin by tracing the history of studying the reciprocity between ecology and evolution, which we see as combining the questions of evolutionary ecology with the assumptions and approaches of ecological genetics. In particular, density-dependent fitness and density-dependent selection were critical concepts underlying ideas about adaptation to biotic selection pressures and the coadaptation of interacting species. However, theory points to a critical distinction between density-dependent fitness and density-dependent selection in their influences on complex evolutionary and ecological interactions among coexisting species. Although density-dependent fitness is manifestly evident in empirical studies, evidence of density-dependent selection is much less common. This leads to the larger question of how prevalent and important density-dependent selection might really be. Life-history variation in the least killifish Heterandria formosa appears to reflect the action of density-dependent selection, and yet compelling evidence is elusive, even in this well-studied system, which suggests some important challenges for understanding density-driven feedbacks between ecology and evolution.

Spatially varying density dependence drives a shifting mosaic of survival in a recovering apex predator (Canis lupus).

PubMed

O'Neil, Shawn T; Bump, Joseph K; Beyer, Dean E

2017-11-01

Understanding landscape patterns in mortality risk is crucial for promoting recovery of threatened and endangered species. Humans affect mortality risk in large carnivores such as wolves ( Canis lupus ), but spatiotemporally varying density dependence can significantly influence the landscape of survival. This potentially occurs when density varies spatially and risk is unevenly distributed. We quantified spatiotemporal sources of variation in survival rates of gray wolves ( C. lupus ) during a 21-year period of population recovery in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA. We focused on mapping risk across time using Cox Proportional Hazards (CPH) models with time-dependent covariates, thus exploring a shifting mosaic of survival. Extended CPH models and time-dependent covariates revealed influences of seasonality, density dependence and experience, as well as individual-level factors and landscape predictors of risk. We used results to predict the shifting landscape of risk at the beginning, middle, and end of the wolf recovery time series. Survival rates varied spatially and declined over time. Long-term change was density-dependent, with landscape predictors such as agricultural land cover and edge densities contributing negatively to survival. Survival also varied seasonally and depended on individual experience, sex, and resident versus transient status. The shifting landscape of survival suggested that increasing density contributed to greater potential for human conflict and wolf mortality risk. Long-term spatial variation in key population vital rates is largely unquantified in many threatened, endangered, and recovering species. Variation in risk may indicate potential for source-sink population dynamics, especially where individuals preemptively occupy suitable territories, which forces new individuals into riskier habitat types as density increases. We encourage managers to explore relationships between adult survival and localized changes in population density. Density-dependent risk maps can identify increasing conflict areas or potential habitat sinks which may persist due to high recruitment in adjacent habitats.

How can we model selectively neutral density dependence in evolutionary games.

PubMed

Argasinski, Krzysztof; Kozłowski, Jan

2008-03-01

The problem of density dependence appears in all approaches to the modelling of population dynamics. It is pertinent to classic models (i.e., Lotka-Volterra's), and also population genetics and game theoretical models related to the replicator dynamics. There is no density dependence in the classic formulation of replicator dynamics, which means that population size may grow to infinity. Therefore the question arises: How is unlimited population growth suppressed in frequency-dependent models? Two categories of solutions can be found in the literature. In the first, replicator dynamics is independent of background fitness. In the second type of solution, a multiplicative suppression coefficient is used, as in a logistic equation. Both approaches have disadvantages. The first one is incompatible with the methods of life history theory and basic probabilistic intuitions. The logistic type of suppression of per capita growth rate stops trajectories of selection when population size reaches the maximal value (carrying capacity); hence this method does not satisfy selective neutrality. To overcome these difficulties, we must explicitly consider turn-over of individuals dependent on mortality rate. This new approach leads to two interesting predictions. First, the equilibrium value of population size is lower than carrying capacity and depends on the mortality rate. Second, although the phase portrait of selection trajectories is the same as in density-independent replicator dynamics, pace of selection slows down when population size approaches equilibrium, and then remains constant and dependent on the rate of turn-over of individuals.

Increased natural mortality at low abundance can generate an Allee effect in a marine fish.

PubMed

Kuparinen, Anna; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

2014-10-01

Negative density-dependent regulation of population dynamics promotes population growth at low abundance and is therefore vital for recovery following depletion. Inversely, any process that reduces the compensatory density-dependence of population growth can negatively affect recovery. Here, we show that increased adult mortality at low abundance can reverse compensatory population dynamics into its opposite-a demographic Allee effect. Northwest Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks collapsed dramatically in the early 1990s and have since shown little sign of recovery. Many experienced dramatic increases in natural mortality, ostensibly attributable in some populations to increased predation by seals. Our findings show that increased natural mortality of a magnitude observed for overfished cod stocks has been more than sufficient to fundamentally alter the dynamics of density-dependent population regulation. The demographic Allee effect generated by these changes can slow down or even impede the recovery of depleted populations even in the absence of fishing.

Density-dependent regulation of population size in colonial breeders: Allee and buffer effects in the migratory Montagu's harrier.

PubMed

Soutullo, Alvaro; Limiñana, Rubén; Urios, Vicente; Surroca, Martín; A Gill, Jennifer

2006-09-01

Expanding populations offer an opportunity to uncover the processes driving spatial variation in distribution and abundance. Individual settlement decisions will be influenced by the availability and relative quality of patches, and by how these respond to changes in conspecific density. For example, conspecific presence can alter patch suitability through reductions in resource availability or territorial exclusion, leading to buffer effect patterns of disproportionate population expansion into poorer quality areas. However, conspecific presence can also enhance patch suitability through Allee effect processes, such as transmission of information about resources or improved predator detection and deterrence. Here, we explore the factors underlying the settlement pattern of a growing population of Montagu's harriers (Circus pygargus) in Spain. The population increased exponentially between 1981 and 2001, but stabilised between 2001 and 2004. This population increase occurred alongside a remarkable spatial expansion, with novel site use occurring prior to maximum densities in occupied sites being reached. However, no temporal trends in fecundity were observed and, within sites, average fecundity did not decline with increasing density. Across the population, variance in productivity did increase with population size, suggesting a complex pattern of density-dependent costs and benefits. We suggest that both Allee and buffer effects are operating in this system, with the benefits of conspecific presence counteracting density-dependent declines in resource availability or quality.

Global asymptotic stability of density dependent integral population projection models.

PubMed

Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Townley, Stuart

2012-02-01

Many stage-structured density dependent populations with a continuum of stages can be naturally modeled using nonlinear integral projection models. In this paper, we study a trichotomy of global stability result for a class of density dependent systems which include a Platte thistle model. Specifically, we identify those systems parameters for which zero is globally asymptotically stable, parameters for which there is a positive asymptotically stable equilibrium, and parameters for which there is no asymptotically stable equilibrium. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Population dynamics of brown trout (Salmo trutta) in Spruce Creek Pennsylvania: A quarter-century perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grossman, Gary D.; Carline, Robert F.; Wagner, Tyler

2017-01-01

We examined the relationship between density-independent and density-dependent factors on the demography of a dense, relatively unexploited population of brown trout in Spruce Creek Pennsylvania between 1985 and 2011.Individual PCAs of flow and temperature data elucidated groups of years with multiple high flow versus multiple low flow characteristics and high versus low temperature years, although subtler patterns of variation also were observed.Density and biomass displayed similar temporal patterns, ranging from 710 to 1,803 trout/ha and 76–263 kg/ha. We detected a significantly negative linear stock-recruitment relationship (R2 = .39) and there was no evidence that flow or water temperature affected recruitment.Both annual survival and the per-capita rate of increase (r) for the population varied over the study, and density-dependent mechanisms possessed the greatest explanatory power for annual survival data. Temporal trends in population r suggested it displayed a bounded equilibrium with increases observed in 12 years and decreases detected in 13 years.Model selection analysis of per-capita rate of increase data for age 1, and adults (N = eight interpretable models) indicated that both density-dependent (five of eight) and negative density-independent processes (five of eight, i.e. high flows or temperatures), affected r. Recruitment limitation also was identified in three of eight models. Variation in the per-capita rate of increase for the population was most strongly affected by positive density independence in the form of increasing spring–summer temperatures and recruitment limitation.Model selection analyses describing annual variation in both mean length and mass data yielded similar results, although maximum wi values were low ranging from 0.09 to 0.23 (length) and 0.13 to 0.22 (mass). Density-dependence was included in 15 of 15 interpretable models for length and all ten interpretable models for mass. Similarly, positive density-independent effects in the form of increasing autumn–winter flow were present in seven of 15 interpretable models for length and five of ten interpretable models for mass. Negative density independent effects also were observed in the form of high spring–summer flows or temperatures (N = 4), or high autumn–winter temperatures (N = 1).Our analyses of the factors affecting population regulation in an introduced population of brown trout demonstrate that density-dependent forces affected every important demographic characteristic (recruitment, survivorship, the rate of increase, and size) within this population. However, density-independent forces in the form of seasonal variations in flow and temperature also helped explain annual variation in the per-capita rate of increase, and mean length and mass data. Consequently, population regulation within this population is driven by a complex of biotic and environmental factors, although it seems clear that density-dependent factors play a dominant role.

Evolution of stochastic demography with life history tradeoffs in density-dependent age-structured populations.

PubMed

Lande, Russell; Engen, Steinar; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2017-10-31

We analyze the stochastic demography and evolution of a density-dependent age- (or stage-) structured population in a fluctuating environment. A positive linear combination of age classes (e.g., weighted by body mass) is assumed to act as the single variable of population size, [Formula: see text], exerting density dependence on age-specific vital rates through an increasing function of population size. The environment fluctuates in a stationary distribution with no autocorrelation. We show by analysis and simulation of age structure, under assumptions often met by vertebrate populations, that the stochastic dynamics of population size can be accurately approximated by a univariate model governed by three key demographic parameters: the intrinsic rate of increase and carrying capacity in the average environment, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], and the environmental variance in population growth rate, [Formula: see text] Allowing these parameters to be genetically variable and to evolve, but assuming that a fourth parameter, [Formula: see text], measuring the nonlinearity of density dependence, remains constant, the expected evolution maximizes [Formula: see text] This shows that the magnitude of environmental stochasticity governs the classical trade-off between selection for higher [Formula: see text] versus higher [Formula: see text] However, selection also acts to decrease [Formula: see text], so the simple life-history trade-off between [Formula: see text]- and [Formula: see text]-selection may be obscured by additional trade-offs between them and [Formula: see text] Under the classical logistic model of population growth with linear density dependence ([Formula: see text]), life-history evolution in a fluctuating environment tends to maximize the average population size. Published under the PNAS license.

Immigration Rates during Population Density Reduction in a Coral Reef Fish

PubMed Central

Turgeon, Katrine; Kramer, Donald L.

2016-01-01

Although the importance of density-dependent dispersal has been recognized in theory, few empirical studies have examined how immigration changes over a wide range of densities. In a replicated experiment using a novel approach allowing within-site comparison, we examined changes in immigration rate following the gradual removal of territorial damselfish from a limited area within a much larger patch of continuous habitat. In all sites, immigration occurred at intermediate densities but did not occur before the start of removals and only rarely as density approached zero. In the combined data and in 5 of 7 sites, the number of immigrants was a hump-shaped function of density. This is the first experimental evidence for hump-shaped, density-dependent immigration. This pattern may be more widespread than previously recognized because studies over more limited density ranges have identified positive density dependence at low densities and negative density dependence at high densities. Positive density dependence at low density can arise from limits to the number of potential immigrants and from behavioral preferences for settling near conspecifics. Negative density dependence at high density can arise from competition for resources, especially high quality territories. The potential for non-linear effects of local density on immigration needs to be recognized for robust predictions of conservation reserve function, harvest impacts, pest control, and the dynamics of fragmented populations. PMID:27271081

Intraspecific competition and density dependence of food consumption and growth in Arctic charr.

PubMed

Amundsen, Per-Arne; Knudsen, Rune; Klemetsen, Anders

2007-01-01

1. Intraspecific competition for restricted food resources is considered to play a fundamental part in density dependence of somatic growth and other population characteristics, but studies simultaneously addressing the interrelationships between population density, food acquisition and somatic growth have been missing. 2. We explored the food consumption and individual growth rates of Arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus in a long-term survey following a large-scale density manipulation experiment in a subarctic lake. 3. Prior to the initiation of the experiment, the population density was high and the somatic growth rates low, revealing a severely overcrowded and stunted fish population. 4. During the 6-year period of stock depletion the population density of Arctic charr was reduced with about 75%, resulting in an almost twofold increase in food consumption rates and enhanced individual growth rates of the fish. 5. Over the decade following the density manipulation experiment, the population density gradually rose to intermediate levels, accompanied by corresponding reductions in food consumption and somatic growth rates. 6. The study revealed negative relationships with population density for both food consumption and individual growth rates, reflecting a strong positive correlation between quantitative food intake and somatic growth rates. 7. Both the growth and consumption rate relationships with population density were well described by negative power curves, suggesting that large density perturbations are necessary to induce improved feeding conditions and growth rates in stunted fish populations. 8. The findings demonstrate that quantitative food consumption represents the connective link between population density and individual growth rates, apparently being highly influenced by intraspecific competition for limited resources.

Interactions between demography and environmental effects are important determinants of population dynamics

PubMed Central

Gamelon, Marlène; Grøtan, Vidar; Nilsson, Anna L. K.; Engen, Steinar; Hurrell, James W.; Jerstad, Kurt; Phillips, Adam S.; Røstad, Ole W.; Slagsvold, Tore; Walseng, Bjørn; Stenseth, Nils C.; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2017-01-01

Climate change will affect the population dynamics of many species, yet the consequences for the long-term persistence of populations are poorly understood. A major reason for this is that density-dependent feedback effects caused by fluctuations in population size are considered independent of stochastic variation in the environment. We show that an interplay between winter temperature and population density can influence the persistence of a small passerine population under global warming. Although warmer winters favor an increased mean population size, density-dependent feedback can cause the local population to be less buffered against occasional poor environmental conditions (cold winters). This shows that it is essential to go beyond the population size and explore climate effects on the full dynamics to elaborate targeted management actions. PMID:28164157

Newly rare or newly common: evolutionary feedbacks through changes in population density and relative species abundance, and their management implications

PubMed Central

Lankau, Richard A; Strauss, Sharon Y

2011-01-01

Environmental management typically seeks to increase or maintain the population sizes of desirable species and to decrease population sizes of undesirable pests, pathogens, or invaders. With changes in population size come long-recognized changes in ecological processes that act in a density-dependent fashion. While the ecological effects of density dependence have been well studied, the evolutionary effects of changes in population size, via changes in ecological interactions with community members, are underappreciated. Here, we provide examples of changing selective pressures on, or evolution in, species as a result of changes in either density of conspecifics or changes in the frequency of heterospecific versus conspecific interactions. We also discuss the management implications of such evolutionary responses in species that have experienced rapid increases or decreases in density caused by human actions. PMID:25567977

Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

PubMed

Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H; Oli, Madan K

2012-01-01

Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λ(s) was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λ(s) included 1.0 (0.52-1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

Stochastic Population Dynamics of a Montane Ground-Dwelling Squirrel

PubMed Central

Hostetler, Jeffrey A.; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H.; Oli, Madan K.

2012-01-01

Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990–2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λs was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λs included 1.0 (0.52–1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration. PMID:22479616

LABORATORY EVOLUTION OF LIFE-HISTORY TRAITS IN THE BEAN WEEVIL (ACANTHOSCELIDES OBTECTUS): THE EFFECTS OF DENSITY-DEPENDENT AND AGE-SPECIFIC SELECTION.

PubMed

Tucić, Nikola; Stojković, Oliver; Gliksman, Ivana; Milanović, Agana; Šešlija, Darka

1997-12-01

Four types of laboratory populations of the bean weevil (Acanthoscelides obtectus) have been developed to study the effects of density-dependent and age-specific selection. These populations have been selected at high (K) and low larval densities (r) as well as for reproduction early (Y) and late (O) in life. The results presented here suggest that the r- and K-populations (density-dependent selection regimes) have differentiated from each other with respect to the following life-history traits: egg-to-adult viability at high larval density (K > r), preadult developmental time (r > K), body weight (r > K), late fecundity (K > r), total realized fecundity (r > K), and longevity of males (r > K). It was also found that the following traits responded in statistically significant manner in populations subjected to different age-specific selection regimes: egg-to-adult viability (O > Y), body weight (O > Y), early fecundity (Y > O), late fecundity (O > Y), and longevity of females and males (O > Y). Although several life-history traits (viability, body weight, late fecundity) responded in similar manner to both density-dependent and age-specific selection regimes, it appears that underlying genetic and physiological mechanisms responsible for differentiation of the r/K and Y/O populations are different. We have also tested quantitative genetic basis of the bean weevil life-history traits in the populations experiencing density-dependent and age-specific selection. Among the traits traded-off within age-specific selection regimes, only early fecundity showed directional dominance, whereas late fecundity and longevity data indicated additive inheritance. In contrast to age-specific selecton regimes, three life-history traits (developmental time, body size, total fecundity) in the density-sependent regimes exhibited significant dominance effects. Lastly, we have tested the congruence between short-term and long-term effects of larval densities. The comparisons of the outcomes of the r/K selection regimes and those obtained from the low- and high-larval densities revealed that there is no congruence between the selection results and phenotypic plasticity for the analyzed life-history traits in the bean weevil. © 1997 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

The role of density dependence in growth patterns of ceded territory walleye populations of northern Wisconsin: Effects of changing management regimes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sass, G.G.; Hewett, S.W.; Beard, T.D.; Fayram, A.H.; Kitchell, J.F.

2004-01-01

We assessed density-related changes in growth of walleye Sander vitreus in the ceded territory of northern Wisconsin from 1977 to 1999. We used asymptotic length (Lz), growth rate near t0 (??), and body condition as measures of walleye growth to determine the relationship between growth and density. Among lakes, there was weak evidence of density-dependent growth: adult density explained only 0-6% of the variability in the growth metrics. Within lakes, growth was density dependent. Lz, ??, and body condition of walleyes changing with density for 69, 28, and 62% of the populations examined, respectively. Our results suggest that walleye growth was density dependent within individual lakes. However, growth was not coherently density dependent among lakes, which was possibly due to inherent differences in the productivity, surface area, forage base, landscape position, species composition, and management regime of lakes in the ceded territory. Densities of adult walleyes averaged 8.3 fish/ha and did not change significantly during 1990-1999. Mean Lz and body condition of walleyes were signilicantly higher before 1990 than after 1990, which may indicate an increase in density due to changes in management regimes. The observed growth changes do not appear to be a consequence of the statewide 15-in minimum size limit adopted in 1990 but rather a response to the treaty rights management regime. We conclude that walleye growth has the potential to predict regional-scale adult walleye densities if lake-specific variables are included in a model to account for regional-scale differences among walleye populations and lakes.

Modelling the impact of vector control interventions on Anopheles gambiae population dynamics

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Intensive anti-malaria campaigns targeting the Anopheles population have demonstrated substantial reductions in adult mosquito density. Understanding the population dynamics of Anopheles mosquitoes throughout their whole lifecycle is important to assess the likely impact of vector control interventions alone and in combination as well as to aid the design of novel interventions. Methods An ecological model of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato populations incorporating a rainfall-dependent carrying capacity and density-dependent regulation of mosquito larvae in breeding sites is developed. The model is fitted to adult mosquito catch and rainfall data from 8 villages in the Garki District of Nigeria (the 'Garki Project') using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and prior estimates of parameters derived from the literature. The model is used to compare the impact of vector control interventions directed against adult mosquito stages - long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLIN), indoor residual spraying (IRS) - and directed against aquatic mosquito stages, alone and in combination on adult mosquito density. Results A model in which density-dependent regulation occurs in the larval stages via a linear association between larval density and larval death rates provided a good fit to seasonal adult mosquito catches. The effective mosquito reproduction number in the presence of density-dependent regulation is dependent on seasonal rainfall patterns and peaks at the start of the rainy season. In addition to killing adult mosquitoes during the extrinsic incubation period, LLINs and IRS also result in less eggs being oviposited in breeding sites leading to further reductions in adult mosquito density. Combining interventions such as the application of larvicidal or pupacidal agents that target the aquatic stages of the mosquito lifecycle with LLINs or IRS can lead to substantial reductions in adult mosquito density. Conclusions Density-dependent regulation of anopheline larvae in breeding sites ensures robust, stable mosquito populations that can persist in the face of intensive vector control interventions. Selecting combinations of interventions that target different stages in the vector's lifecycle will result in maximum reductions in mosquito density. PMID:21798055

Spatial heterogeneity in the effects of climate and density-dependence on dispersal in a house sparrow metapopulation

PubMed Central

Pärn, Henrik; Ringsby, Thor Harald; Jensen, Henrik; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2012-01-01

Dispersal plays a key role in the response of populations to climate change and habitat fragmentation. Here, we use data from a long-term metapopulation study of a non-migratory bird, the house sparrow (Passer domesticus), to examine the influence of increasing spring temperature and density-dependence on natal dispersal rates and how these relationships depend on spatial variation in habitat quality. The effects of spring temperature and population size on dispersal rate depended on the habitat quality. Dispersal rate increased with temperature and population size on poor-quality islands without farms, where house sparrows were more exposed to temporal fluctuations in weather conditions and food availability. By contrast, dispersal rate was independent of spring temperature and population size on high-quality islands with farms, where house sparrows had access to food and shelter all the year around. This illustrates large spatial heterogeneity within the metapopulation in how population density and environmental fluctuations affect the dispersal process. PMID:21613299

Seed-predator satiation and Janzen-Connell effects vary with spatial scales for seed-feeding insects.

PubMed

Xiao, Zhishu; Mi, Xiangcheng; Holyoak, Marcel; Xie, Wenhua; Cao, Ke; Yang, Xifu; Huang, Xiaoqun; Krebs, Charles J

2017-01-01

The Janzen-Connell model predicts that common species suffer high seed predation from specialized natural enemies as a function of distance from parent trees, and consequently as a function of conspecific density, whereas the predator satiation hypothesis predicts that seed attack is reduced due to predator satiation at high seed densities. Pre-dispersal predation by insects was studied while seeds are still on parent trees, which represents a frequently overlooked stage in which seed predation occurs. Reproductive tree density and seed production were investigated from ten Quercus serrata populations located in south-west China, quantifying density-dependent pre-dispersal seed predation over two years by three insect groups. Acorn infestation was nearly twice as high in the low-seed year as that in the high-seed year, with considerable spatio-temporal variation in the direction and magnitude of density-dependent pre-dispersal seed predation evident. Across whole populations of trees, a high density of reproductive trees caused predator satiation and reduced insect attack in the high-seed year. Within individual trees, and consistent with the Janzen-Connell model, overall insect seed predation was positively correlated with seed production in the low-seed year. In addition, there was variation among insect taxa, with positive density-dependent seed predation by Curculio weevils in the high-seed year and moths in the low-seed year, but apparent density independence by Cyllorhynchites weevils in both years. The overall trend of negative density-dependent, pre-dispersal seed predation suggests that predator satiation limited the occurrence of Janzen-Connell effects across Q. serrata populations. Such effects may have large impacts on plant population dynamics and tree diversity, depending on the extent to which they are reduced by counteracting positive density-dependent predation for seeds on individual trees and other factors affecting successful recruitment. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Density dependence and risk of extinction in a small population of sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, L.R.; Buenau, K.E.; VanBlaricom, G.

2004-01-01

Sea otters (Enhydra lutris (L.)) were hunted to extinction off the coast of Washington State early in the 20th century. A new population was established by translocations from Alaska in 1969 and 1970. The population, currently numbering at least 550 animals, A major threat to the population is the ongoing risk of majour oil spills in sea otter habitat. We apply population models to census and demographic data in order to evaluate the status of the population. We fit several density dependent models to test for density dependence and determine plausible values for the carrying capacity (K) by comparing model goodness of fit to an exponential model. Model fits were compared using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). A significant negative relationship was found between the population growth rate and population size (r2=0.27, F=5.57, df=16, p<0.05), suggesting density dependence in Washington state sea otters. Information criterion statistics suggest that the model is the most parsimonious, followed closely by the logistic Beverton-Holt model. Values of K ranged from 612 to 759 with best-fit parameter estimates for the Beverton-Holt model including 0.26 for r and 612 for K. The latest (2001) population index count (555) puts the population at 87-92% of the estimated carrying capacity, above the suggested range for optimum sustainable population (OSP). Elasticity analysis was conducted to examine the effects of proportional changes in vital rates on the population growth rate (??). The elasticity values indicate the population is most sensitive to changes in survival rates (particularly adult survival).

Potential misuse of avian density as a conservation metric

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skagen, Susan K.; Yackel Adams, Amy A.

2011-01-01

Effective conservation metrics are needed to evaluate the success of management in a rapidly changing world. Reproductive rates and densities of breeding birds (as a surrogate for reproductive rate) have been used to indicate the quality of avian breeding habitat, but the underlying assumptions of these metrics rarely have been examined. When birds are attracted to breeding areas in part by the presence of conspecifics and when breeding in groups influences predation rates, the effectiveness of density and reproductive rate as indicators of habitat quality is reduced. It is beneficial to clearly distinguish between individual- and population-level processes when evaluating habitat quality. We use the term reproductive rate to refer to both levels and further distinguish among levels by using the terms per capita fecundity (number of female offspring per female per year, individual level) and population growth rate (the product of density and per capita fecundity, population level). We predicted how density and reproductive rate interact over time under density-independent and density-dependent scenarios, assuming the ideal free distribution model of how birds settle in breeding habitats. We predicted population density of small populations would be correlated positively with both per capita fecundity and population growth rate due to the Allee effect. For populations in the density-dependent growth phase, we predicted no relation between density and per capita fecundity (because individuals in all patches will equilibrate to the same success rate) and a positive relation between density and population growth rate. Several ecological theories collectively suggest that positive correlations between density and per capita fecundity would be difficult to detect. We constructed a decision tree to guide interpretation of positive, neutral, nonlinear, and negative relations between density and reproductive rates at individual and population levels. ?? 2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

Population density of North American elk: effects on plant diversity.

PubMed

Stewart, Kelley M; Bowyer, R Terry; Kie, John G; Dick, Brian L; Ruess, Roger W

2009-08-01

Large, herbivorous mammals have profound effects on ecosystem structure and function and often act as keystone species in ecosystems they inhabit. Density-dependent processes associated with population structure of large mammals may interact with ecosystem functioning to increase or decrease biodiversity, depending on the relationship of herbivore populations relative to the carrying capacity (K) of the ecosystem. We tested for indirect effects of population density of large herbivores on plant species richness and diversity in a montane ecosystem, where increased net aboveground primary productivity (NAPP) in response to low levels of herbivory has been reported. We documented a positive, linear relationship between plant-species diversity and richness with NAPP. Structural equation modeling revealed significant indirect relationships between population density of herbivores, NAPP, and species diversity. We observed an indirect effect of density-dependent processes in large, herbivorous mammals and species diversity of plants through changes in NAPP in this montane ecosystem. Changes in species diversity of plants in response to herbivory may be more indirect in ecosystems with long histories of herbivory. Those subtle or indirect effects of herbivory may have strong effects on ecosystem functioning, but may be overlooked in plant communities that are relatively resilient to herbivory.

Population and prehistory III: food-dependent demography in variable environments.

PubMed

Lee, Charlotte T; Puleston, Cedric O; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

2009-11-01

The population dynamics of preindustrial societies depend intimately on their surroundings, and food is a primary means through which environment influences population size and individual well-being. Food production requires labor; thus, dependence of survival and fertility on food involves dependence of a population's future on its current state. We use a perturbation approach to analyze the effects of random environmental variation on this nonlinear, age-structured system. We show that in expanding populations, direct environmental effects dominate induced population fluctuations, so environmental variability has little effect on mean hunger levels, although it does decrease population growth. The growth rate determines the time until population is limited by space. This limitation introduces a tradeoff between population density and well-being, so population effects become more important than the direct effects of the environment: environmental fluctuation increases mortality, releasing density dependence and raising average well-being for survivors. We discuss the social implications of these findings for the long-term fate of populations as they transition from expansion into limitation, given that conditions leading to high well-being during growth depress well-being during limitation.

Identification of the population density of a species model with nonlocal diffusion and nonlinear reaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuan, Nguyen Huy; Van Au, Vo; Khoa, Vo Anh; Lesnic, Daniel

2017-05-01

The identification of the population density of a logistic equation backwards in time associated with nonlocal diffusion and nonlinear reaction, motivated by biology and ecology fields, is investigated. The diffusion depends on an integral average of the population density whilst the reaction term is a global or local Lipschitz function of the population density. After discussing the ill-posedness of the problem, we apply the quasi-reversibility method to construct stable approximation problems. It is shown that the regularized solutions stemming from such method not only depend continuously on the final data, but also strongly converge to the exact solution in L 2-norm. New error estimates together with stability results are obtained. Furthermore, numerical examples are provided to illustrate the theoretical results.

Modelling density-dependent resistance in insect-pathogen interactions.

PubMed

White, K A; Wilson, K

1999-10-01

We consider a mathematical model for a host-pathogen interaction where the host population is split into two categories: those susceptible to disease and those resistant to disease. Since the model was motivated by studies on insect populations, we consider a discrete-time model to reflect the discrete generations which are common among insect species. Whether an individual is born susceptible or resistant to disease depends on the local population levels at the start of each generation. In particular, we are interested in the case where the fraction of resistant individuals in the population increases as the total population increases. This may be seen as a positive feedback mechanism since disease is the only population control imposed upon the system. Moreover, it reflects recent experimental observations from noctuid moth-baculovirus interactions that pathogen resistance may increase with larval density. We find that the inclusion of a resistant class can stabilise unstable host-pathogen interactions but there is greatest regulation when the fraction born resistant is density independent. Nonetheless, inclusion of density dependence can still allow intrinsically unstable host-pathogen dynamics to be stabilised provided that this effect is sufficiently small. Moreover, inclusion of density-dependent resistance to disease allows the system to give rise to bistable dynamics in which the final outcome is dictated by the initial conditions for the model system. This has implications for the management of agricultural pests using biocontrol agents-in particular, it is suggested that the propensity for density-dependent resistance be determined prior to such a biocontrol attempt in order to be sure that this will result in the prevention of pest outbreaks, rather than their facilitation. Finally we consider how the cost of resistance to disease affects model outcomes and discover that when there is no cost to resistance, the model predicts stable periodic outbreaks of the insect population. The results are interpreted ecologically and future avenues for research to address the shortfalls in the present model system are discussed. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Negative density-dependent dispersal in the American black bear (Ursus americanus) revealed by noninvasive sampling and genotyping

PubMed Central

Roy, Justin; Yannic, Glenn; Côté, Steeve D; Bernatchez, Louis

2012-01-01

Although the dispersal of animals is influenced by a variety of factors, few studies have used a condition-dependent approach to assess it. The mechanisms underlying dispersal are thus poorly known in many species, especially in large mammals. We used 10 microsatellite loci to examine population density effects on sex-specific dispersal behavior in the American black bear, Ursus americanus. We tested whether dispersal increases with population density in both sexes. Fine-scale genetic structure was investigated in each of four sampling areas using Mantel tests and spatial autocorrelation analyses. Our results revealed male-biased dispersal pattern in low-density areas. As population density increased, females appeared to exhibit philopatry at smaller scales. Fine-scale genetic structure for males at higher densities may indicate reduced dispersal distances and delayed dispersal by subadults. PMID:22822432

Dynamical role of predators in population cycles of a forest insect: an experimental test.

Treesearch

P. Turchin; A.D. Taylor; J.D. Reeve

1999-01-01

Population cycles occur frequently in forest insects.Time-series analysis of fluctuations in one such insect, the southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis), suggests that beetle dynamics are dominated by an ecological process acting in a delayed density-dependent manner.The hypothesis that delayed density-dependence in this insect results from its interaction with...

Density-dependence as a size-independent regulatory mechanism.

PubMed

de Vladar, Harold P

2006-01-21

The growth function of populations is central in biomathematics. The main dogma is the existence of density-dependence mechanisms, which can be modelled with distinct functional forms that depend on the size of the population. One important class of regulatory functions is the theta-logistic, which generalizes the logistic equation. Using this model as a motivation, this paper introduces a simple dynamical reformulation that generalizes many growth functions. The reformulation consists of two equations, one for population size, and one for the growth rate. Furthermore, the model shows that although population is density-dependent, the dynamics of the growth rate does not depend either on population size, nor on the carrying capacity. Actually, the growth equation is uncoupled from the population size equation, and the model has only two parameters, a Malthusian parameter rho and a competition coefficient theta. Distinct sign combinations of these parameters reproduce not only the family of theta-logistics, but also the van Bertalanffy, Gompertz and Potential Growth equations, among other possibilities. It is also shown that, except for two critical points, there is a general size-scaling relation that includes those appearing in the most important allometric theories, including the recently proposed Metabolic Theory of Ecology. With this model, several issues of general interest are discussed such as the growth of animal population, extinctions, cell growth and allometry, and the effect of environment over a population.

Climatic and density influences on recruitment in an irruptive population of Roosevelt elk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Starns, Heath D.; Ricca, Mark A.; Duarte, Adam; Weckerly, Floyd W.

2014-01-01

Current paradigms of ungulate population ecology recognize that density-dependent and independent mechanisms are not always mutually exclusive. Long-term data sets are necessary to assess the relative strength of each mechanism, especially when populations display irruptive dynamics. Using an 18-year time series of population abundances of Roosevelt elk (Cervus elaphus roosevelti) inhabiting Redwood National Park in northwestern California we assessed the influence of population size and climatic variation on elk recruitment and whether irruptive dynamics occurred. An information-theoretic model selection analysis indicated that abundance lagged 2 years and neither climatic factors nor a mix of abundance and climatic factors influenced elk recruitment. However, density-dependent recruitment differed between when the population was declining and when the population increased and then stabilized at an abundance lower than at the start of the decline. The population displayed irruptive dynamics.

Global asymptotic stability of plant-seed bank models.

PubMed

Eager, Eric Alan; Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte

2014-07-01

Many plant populations have persistent seed banks, which consist of viable seeds that remain dormant in the soil for many years. Seed banks are important for plant population dynamics because they buffer against environmental perturbations and reduce the probability of extinction. Viability of the seeds in the seed bank can depend on the seed's age, hence it is important to keep track of the age distribution of seeds in the seed bank. In this paper we construct a general density-dependent plant-seed bank model where the seed bank is age-structured. We consider density dependence in both seedling establishment and seed production, since previous work has highlighted that overcrowding can suppress both of these processes. Under certain assumptions on the density dependence, we prove that there is a globally stable equilibrium population vector which is independent of the initial state. We derive an analytical formula for the equilibrium population using methods from feedback control theory. We apply these results to a model for the plant species Cirsium palustre and its seed bank.

Modeling fish community dynamics in Florida Everglades: Role of temperature variation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Al-Rabai'ah, H. A.; Koh, H. L.; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Lee, Hooi-Ling

2002-01-01

The model shows that the temperature dependent starvation mortality is an important factor that influences fish population densities. It also shows high fish population densities at some temperature ranges when this consumption need is minimum. Several sensitivity analyses involving variations in temperature terms, food resources and water levels are conducted to ascertain the relative importance of temperature dependence terms.

Age or stage structure? A comparison of dynamic outcomes from discrete age- and stage-structured population models.

PubMed

Wikan, Arild

2012-06-01

Discrete stage-structured density-dependent and discrete age-structured density-dependent population models are considered. Regarding the former, we prove that the model at hand is permanent (i.e., that the population will neither go extinct nor exhibit explosive oscillations) and given density dependent fecundity terms we also show that species with delayed semelparous life histories tend to be more stable than species which possess precocious semelparous life histories. Moreover, our findings together with results obtained from other stage-structured models seem to illustrate a fairly general ecological principle, namely that iteroparous species are more stable than semelparous species. Our analysis of various age-structured models does not necessarily support the conclusions above. In fact, species with precocious life histories now appear to possess better stability properties than species with delayed life histories, especially in the iteroparous case. We also show that there are dynamical outcomes from semelparous age-structured models which we are not able to capture in corresponding stage-structured cases. Finally, both age- and stage-structured population models may generate periodic dynamics of low period (either exact or approximate). The important prerequisite is to assume density-dependent survival probabilities.

Spatial dynamics of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England, Wales and the United States.

PubMed

Eggo, Rosalind M; Cauchemez, Simon; Ferguson, Neil M

2011-02-06

There is still limited understanding of key determinants of spatial spread of influenza. The 1918 pandemic provides an opportunity to elucidate spatial determinants of spread on a large scale. To better characterize the spread of the 1918 major wave, we fitted a range of city-to-city transmission models to mortality data collected for 246 population centres in England and Wales and 47 cities in the US. Using a gravity model for city-to-city contacts, we explored the effect of population size and distance on the spread of disease and tested assumptions regarding density dependence in connectivity between cities. We employed Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate parameters of the model for population, infectivity, distance and density dependence. We inferred the most likely transmission trees for both countries. For England and Wales, a model that estimated the degree of density dependence in connectivity between cities was preferable by deviance information criterion comparison. Early in the major wave, long distance infective interactions predominated, with local infection events more likely as the epidemic became widespread. For the US, with fewer more widely dispersed cities, statistical power was lacking to estimate population size dependence or the degree of density dependence, with the preferred model depending on distance only. We find that parameters estimated from the England and Wales dataset can be applied to the US data with no likelihood penalty.

Spatial dynamics of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England, Wales and the United States

PubMed Central

Eggo, Rosalind M.; Cauchemez, Simon; Ferguson, Neil M.

2011-01-01

There is still limited understanding of key determinants of spatial spread of influenza. The 1918 pandemic provides an opportunity to elucidate spatial determinants of spread on a large scale. To better characterize the spread of the 1918 major wave, we fitted a range of city-to-city transmission models to mortality data collected for 246 population centres in England and Wales and 47 cities in the US. Using a gravity model for city-to-city contacts, we explored the effect of population size and distance on the spread of disease and tested assumptions regarding density dependence in connectivity between cities. We employed Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate parameters of the model for population, infectivity, distance and density dependence. We inferred the most likely transmission trees for both countries. For England and Wales, a model that estimated the degree of density dependence in connectivity between cities was preferable by deviance information criterion comparison. Early in the major wave, long distance infective interactions predominated, with local infection events more likely as the epidemic became widespread. For the US, with fewer more widely dispersed cities, statistical power was lacking to estimate population size dependence or the degree of density dependence, with the preferred model depending on distance only. We find that parameters estimated from the England and Wales dataset can be applied to the US data with no likelihood penalty. PMID:20573630

Impact of food supplementation and methionine on high densities of cotton rats: Support of the amino-acid-quality hypothesis?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Webb, R.E.; Leslie, David M.; Lochmiller, R.L.; Masters, R.E.

2005-01-01

Considerable research supports the tenet that quantity and quality of food limit vertebrate populations. We evaluated predictions that increased availabilities of food and the essential amino acid methionine were related to population limitation of the hispid cotton rat (Sigmodon hispidus). Effects of supplemental food and methionine on density, survival, and reproductive parameters of wild cotton rats were assessed in north-central Oklahoma in 1998-1999. Twelve enclosed groups of 16 adult cotton rats each (8 male, 8 female) were randomly assigned to either no supplementation (control), supplementation with a mixed ration that had methionine at slightly below maintenance levels (0.20%), or a methionine-enhanced mixed ration (1.20%). In general, densities of cotton rats were twice as high and were sustained longer with dietary supplementation, and methionine-supplemented populations maintained the highest densities. Treatment effects on survival depended on time of year, with higher survival in supplemented enclosures in October and November. Per capita recruitment was highest with methionine-enhanced food. Treatment effects on proportions of overall and female cotton rats in reproductive condition depended on sampling date, but males were most reproductively active with methionine supplementation. Methionine supplementation resulted in an earlier and longer reproductive season. Density-dependent and density-independent factors no doubt interplay to determine population dynamics of cotton rats, but our results suggest that methionine plays a role in the population dynamics of wild cotton rats, apparently by enhancing overall density, recruitment, and reproductive activity of males.

Adaptation to larval crowding in Drosophila ananassae leads to the evolution of population stability.

PubMed

Dey, Snigdhadip; Bose, Joy; Joshi, Amitabh

2012-05-01

Density-dependent selection is expected to lead to population stability, especially if r and K tradeoff. Yet, there is no empirical evidence of adaptation to crowding leading to the evolution of stability. We show that populations of Drosophila ananassae selected for adaptation to larval crowding have higher K and lower r, and evolve greater stability than controls. We also show that increased population growth rates at high density can enhance stability, even in the absence of a decrease in r, by ensuring that the crowding adapted populations do not fall to very low sizes. We discuss our results in the context of traits known to have diverged between the selected and control populations, and compare our results with previous work on the evolution of stability in D. melanogaster. Overall, our results suggest that density-dependent selection may be an important factor promoting the evolution of relatively stable dynamics in natural populations.

Chaotic attractors and physical measures for some density dependent Leslie population models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ugarcovici, Ilie; Weiss, Howard

2007-12-01

Following ecologists' discoveries, mathematicians have begun studying extensions of the ubiquitous age structured Leslie population model that allow some survival probabilities and/or fertility rates to depend on population densities. These nonlinear extensions commonly exhibit very complicated dynamics: through computer studies, some authors have discovered robust Hénon-like strange attractors in several families. Population biologists and demographers frequently wish to average a function over many generations and conclude that the average is independent of the initial population distribution. This type of 'ergodicity' seems to be a fundamental tenet in population biology. In this paper we develop the first rigorous ergodic theoretic framework for density dependent Leslie population models. We study two generation models with Ricker and Hassell (recruitment type) fertility terms. We prove that for some parameter regions these models admit a chaotic (ergodic) attractor which supports a unique physical probability measure. This physical measure, having full Lebesgue measure basin, satisfies in the strongest possible sense the population biologist's requirement for ergodicity in their population models. We use the celebrated work of Wang and Young 2001 Commun. Math. Phys. 218 1-97, and our results are the first applications of their method to biology, ecology or demography.

Potential misuse of avian density as a conservation metric.

PubMed

Skagen, Susan K; Yackel Adams, Amy A

2011-02-01

Effective conservation metrics are needed to evaluate the success of management in a rapidly changing world. Reproductive rates and densities of breeding birds (as a surrogate for reproductive rate) have been used to indicate the quality of avian breeding habitat, but the underlying assumptions of these metrics rarely have been examined. When birds are attracted to breeding areas in part by the presence of conspecifics and when breeding in groups influences predation rates, the effectiveness of density and reproductive rate as indicators of habitat quality is reduced. It is beneficial to clearly distinguish between individual- and population-level processes when evaluating habitat quality. We use the term reproductive rate to refer to both levels and further distinguish among levels by using the terms per capita fecundity (number of female offspring per female per year, individual level) and population growth rate (the product of density and per capita fecundity, population level). We predicted how density and reproductive rate interact over time under density-independent and density-dependent scenarios, assuming the ideal free distribution model of how birds settle in breeding habitats. We predicted population density of small populations would be correlated positively with both per capita fecundity and population growth rate due to the Allee effect. For populations in the density-dependent growth phase, we predicted no relation between density and per capita fecundity (because individuals in all patches will equilibrate to the same success rate) and a positive relation between density and population growth rate. Several ecological theories collectively suggest that positive correlations between density and per capita fecundity would be difficult to detect. We constructed a decision tree to guide interpretation of positive, neutral, nonlinear, and negative relations between density and reproductive rates at individual and population levels. Journal compilation ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original US government works.

Deer density and disease prevalence influence transmission of Chronic Wasting Disease in White-tailed Deer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Samuel, Michael D.; Richards, Bryan J.; Storm, Daniel J.; Rolley, Robert E.; Shelton, Paul; Nicholas S. Keuler,; Timothy R. Van Deelen,

2013-01-01

Host-parasite dynamics and strategies for managing infectious diseases of wildlife depend on the functional relationship between disease transmission rates and host density. However, the disease transmission function is rarely known for free-living wildlife, leading to uncertainty regarding the impacts of diseases on host populations and effective control actions. We evaluated the influence of deer density, landscape features, and soil clay content on transmission of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in young (<2-year-old) white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in south-central Wisconsin, USA. We evaluated how frequency-dependent, density-dependent, and intermediate transmission models predicted CWD incidence rates in harvested yearling deer. An intermediate transmission model, incorporating both disease prevalence and density of infected deer, performed better than simple density- and frequency-dependent models. Our results indicate a combination of social structure, non-linear relationships between infectious contact and deer density, and distribution of disease among groups are important factors driving CWD infection in young deer. The landscape covariates % deciduous forest cover and forest edge density also were positively associated with infection rates, but soil clay content had no measurable influences on CWD transmission. Lack of strong density-dependent transmission rates indicates that controlling CWD by reducing deer density will be difficult. The consequences of non-linear disease transmission and aggregation of disease on cervid populations deserves further consideration.

Spatial distribution of limited resources and local density regulation in juvenile Atlantic salmon.

PubMed

Finstad, Anders G; Einum, Sigurd; Ugedal, Ola; Forseth, Torbjørn

2009-01-01

1. Spatial heterogeneity of resources may influence competition among individuals and thus have a fundamental role in shaping population dynamics and carrying capacity. In the present study, we identify shelter opportunities as a limiting resource for juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.). Experimental and field studies are combined in order to demonstrate how the spatial distribution of shelters may influence population dynamics on both within and among population scales. 2. In closed experimental streams, fish performance scaled negatively with decreasing shelter availability and increasing densities. In contrast, the fish in open stream channels dispersed according to shelter availability and performance of fish remaining in the streams did not depend on initial density or shelters. 3. The field study confirmed that spatial variation in densities of 1-year-old juveniles was governed both by initial recruit density and shelter availability. Strength of density-dependent population regulation, measured as carrying capacity, increased with decreasing number of shelters. 4. Nine rivers were surveyed for spatial variation in shelter availability and increased shelter heterogeneity tended to decrease maximum observed population size (measured using catch statistics of adult salmon as a proxy). 5. Our studies highlight the importance of small-scale within-population spatial structure in population dynamics and demonstrate that not only the absolute amount of limiting resources but also their spatial arrangement can be an important factor influencing population carrying capacity.

A Global Picture of the Gamma-Ricker Map: A Flexible Discrete-Time Model with Factors of Positive and Negative Density Dependence.

PubMed

Liz, Eduardo

2018-02-01

The gamma-Ricker model is one of the more flexible and general discrete-time population models. It is defined on the basis of the Ricker model, introducing an additional parameter [Formula: see text]. For some values of this parameter ([Formula: see text], population is overcompensatory, and the introduction of an additional parameter gives more flexibility to fit the stock-recruitment curve to field data. For other parameter values ([Formula: see text]), the gamma-Ricker model represents populations whose per-capita growth rate combines both negative density dependence and positive density dependence. The former can lead to overcompensation and dynamic instability, and the latter can lead to a strong Allee effect. We study the impact of the cooperation factor in the dynamics and provide rigorous conditions under which increasing the Allee effect strength stabilizes or destabilizes population dynamics, promotes or prevents population extinction, and increases or decreases population size. Our theoretical results also include new global stability criteria and a description of the possible bifurcations.

Density-Dependent Recruitment and Diapause in the Spring-Feeding Generation of Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (Hemiptera: Adelgidae) in Western North America.

PubMed

Weed, Aaron S; Elkinton, Joseph S; Lany, Nina K

2016-12-01

Insect populations are affected by density-dependent and density-independent factors, and knowing how these factors affect long-term population growth is critical to pest management. In this study, we experimentally manipulated densities of the hemlock woolly adelgid on eastern and western hemlock trees in the western USA to evaluate the effects of density and host species on hemlock woolly adelgid crawler colonization. We then followed development of hemlock woolly adelgid on each hemlock species. Settlement of crawlers was strongly density-dependent and consistent between host species. In addition, a period of hot days that coincided with the settlement of hemlock woolly adelgid crawlers put our experimental and naturally occurring populations into diapause during April. Diapause resulted in one generation that yr in our experimental population. Analyses of long-term air temperature records indicated that diapause-inducing temperatures in April similar to those observed in our experiment have occurred rarely since 1909 and the frequency of these events has not changed over time. Prior work suggests that hemlock woolly adelgid completes two generations per yr in the western USA with a diapause occurring in the summer. This typical life history reflects the long-term influence of regional average seasonal temperature patterns on development and the timing of diapause-inducing temperatures. However, the timing of unseasonal weather, such as the hot days observed in our experiment, occasionally changes life history trajectories from this normal pattern. Our results show that density-dependent and density-independent factors have strong effects on generational mortality and life history of hemlock woolly adelgid that are important to its population dynamics and management. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2016. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

Life-history plasticity and sustainable exploitation: a theory of growth compensation applied to walleye management.

PubMed

Lester, Nigel P; Shuter, Brian J; Venturelli, Paul; Nadeau, Daniel

2014-01-01

A simple population model was developed to evaluate the role of plastic and evolutionary life-history changes on sustainable exploitation rates. Plastic changes are embodied in density-dependent compensatory adjustments to somatic growth rate and larval/juvenile survival, which can compensate for the reductions in reproductive lifetime and mean population fecundity that accompany the higher adult mortality imposed by exploitation. Evolutionary changes are embodied in the selective pressures that higher adult mortality imposes on age at maturity, length at maturity, and reproductive investment. Analytical development, based on a biphasic growth model, led to simple equations that show explicitly how sustainable exploitation rates are bounded by each of these effects. We show that density-dependent growth combined with a fixed length at maturity and fixed reproductive investment can support exploitation-driven mortality that is 80% of the level supported by evolutionary changes in maturation and reproductive investment. Sustainable fishing mortality is proportional to natural mortality (M) times the degree of density-dependent growth, as modified by both the degree of density-dependent early survival and the minimum harvestable length. We applied this model to estimate sustainable exploitation rates for North American walleye populations (Sander vitreus). Our analysis of demographic data from walleye populations spread across a broad latitudinal range indicates that density-dependent variation in growth rate can vary by a factor of 2. Implications of this growth response are generally consistent with empirical studies suggesting that optimal fishing mortality is approximately 0.75M for teleosts. This approach can be adapted to the management of other species, particularly when significant exploitation is imposed on many, widely distributed, but geographically isolated populations.

Body downsizing caused by non-consumptive social stress severely depresses population growth rate

PubMed Central

Edeline, Eric; Haugen, Thrond O.; Weltzien, Finn-Arne; Claessen, David; Winfield, Ian J.; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Vøllestad, L. Asbjørn

2010-01-01

Chronic social stress diverts energy away from growth, reproduction and immunity, and is thus a potential driver of population dynamics. However, the effects of social stress on demographic density dependence remain largely overlooked in ecological theory. Here we combine behavioural experiments, physiology and population modelling to show in a top predator (pike Esox lucius) that social stress alone may be a primary driver of demographic density dependence. Doubling pike density in experimental ponds under controlled prey availability did not significantly change prey intake by pike (i.e. did not significantly change interference or exploitative competition), but induced a neuroendocrine stress response reflecting a size-dependent dominance hierarchy, depressed pike energetic status and lowered pike body growth rate by 23 per cent. Assuming fixed size-dependent survival and fecundity functions parameterized for the Windermere (UK) pike population, stress-induced smaller body size shifts age-specific survival rates and lowers age-specific fecundity, which in Leslie matrices projects into reduced population rate of increase (λ) by 37–56%. Our models also predict that social stress flattens elasticity profiles of λ to age-specific survival and fecundity, thus making population persistence more dependent on old individuals. Our results suggest that accounting for non-consumptive social stress from competitors and predators is necessary to accurately understand, predict and manage food-web dynamics. PMID:19923130

Predator-induced synchrony in population oscillations of coexisting small mammal species.

PubMed

Korpimäki, Erkki; Norrdahl, Kai; Huitu, Otso; Klemola, Tero

2005-01-22

Comprehensive analyses of long-term (1977-2003) small-mammal abundance data from western Finland showed that populations of Microtus voles (field voles M. agrestis and sibling voles M. rossiaemeridionalis) voles, bank (Clethrionomys glareolus) and common shrews (Sorex araneus) fluctuated synchronously in 3 year population cycles. Time-series analyses indicated that interspecific synchrony is influenced strongly by density-dependent processes. Synchrony among Microtus and bank voles appeared additionally to be influenced by density-independent processes. To test whether interspecific synchronization through density-dependent processes is caused by predation, we experimentally reduced the densities of the main predators of small mammals in four large agricultural areas, and compared small mammal abundances in these to those in four control areas (2.5-3 km(2)) through a 3 year small-mammal population cycle. Predator reduction increased densities of the main prey species, Microtus voles, in all phases of the population cycle, while bank voles, the most important alternative prey of predators, responded positively only in the low and the increase phase. Manipulation also increased the autumn densities of water voles (Arvicola terrestris) in the increase phase of the cycle. No treatment effects were detected for common shrews or mice. Our results are in accordance with the alternative prey hypothesis, by which predators successively reduce the densities of both main and alternative prey species after the peak phase of small-mammal population cycles, thus inducing a synchronous low phase.

Consumers limit the abundance and dynamics of a perennial shrub with a seed bank

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kauffman, M.J.; Maron, J.L.

2006-01-01

For nearly 30 years, ecologists have argued that predators of seeds and seedlings seldom have population-level effects on plants with persistent seed banks and density-dependent seedling survival. We parameterized stage-based population models that incorporated density dependence and seed dormancy with data from a 5.5-year experiment that quantified how granivorous mice and herbivorous voles influence bush lupine (Lupinus arboreus) demography. We asked how seed dormancy and density-dependent seedling survival mediate the impacts of these consumers in dune and grassland habitats. In dune habitat, mice reduced analytical ?? (the intrinsic rate of population growth) by 39%, the equilibrium number of above-ground plants by 90%, and the seed bank by 98%; voles had minimal effects. In adjacent grasslands, mice had minimal effects, but seedling herbivory by voles reduced analytical ?? by 15% and reduced both the equilibrium number of aboveground plants and dormant seeds by 63%. A bootstrap analysis demonstrated that these consumer effects were robust to parameter uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that the quantitative strengths of seed dormancy and density-dependent seedling survival-not their mere existence-critically mediate consumer effects. This study suggests that plant population dynamics and distribution may be more strongly influenced by consumers of seeds and seedlings than is currently recognized. ?? 2006 by The University of Chicago.

Effects of Interactions among Heterodera glycines, Meloidogyne incognita, and Host Genotype on Soybean Yield and Nematode Population Densities

PubMed Central

Niblack, T. L.; Hussey, R. S.; Boerma, H. R.

1986-01-01

The effects of host genotype and initial nematode population densities (Pi) on yield of soybean and soil population densities of Heterodera glycines (Hg) race 3 and Meloidogyne incognita (Mi) race 3 were studied in a greenhouse and field microplots in 1983 and 1984. Centennial (resistant to Hg and Mi), Braxton (resistant to Mi, susceptible to Hg), and Coker 237 (susceptible to Hg and Mi) were planted in soil infested with 0, 31, or 124 eggs of Hg and Mi, individually and in all combinations, per 100 cm³ soil. Yield responses of the soybean cultivars to individual and combined infestations of Hg and Mi were primarily dependent on soybean resistance or susceptibility to each species separately. Yield of Centennial was stimulated or unaffected by nematode treatments, yield of Braxton was suppressed by Hg only, and yield suppressions caused by Hg and Mi were additive and dependent on Pi for Coker 237. Other plant responses to nematodes were also dependent on host resistance or susceptibility. Population densities of Mi second-stage juveniles (J2) in soil were related to Mi Pi and remained constant in the presence of Hg for all three cultivars. Population densities of Hg J2 on the two Hg-susceptible Cultivars, Braxton and Coker 237, were suppressed in the presence of Mi at low Hg Pi. PMID:19294208

Optimal control of Atlantic population Canada geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hauser, C.E.; Runge, M.C.; Cooch, E.G.; Johnson, F.A.; Harvey, W.F.

2007-01-01

Management of Canada geese (Branta canadensis) can be a balance between providing sustained harvest opportunity while not allowing populations to become overabundant and cause damage. In this paper, we focus on the Atlantic population of Canada geese and use stochastic dynamic programming to determine the optimal harvest strategy over a range of plausible models for population dynamics. There is evidence to suggest that the population exhibits significant age structure, and it is possible to reconstruct age structure from surveys. Consequently the harvest strategy is a function of the age composition, as well as the abundance, of the population. The objective is to maximize harvest while maintaining the number of breeding adults in the population between specified upper and lower limits. In addition, the total harvest capacity is limited and there is uncertainty about the strength of density-dependence. We find that under a density-independent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at the highest acceptable abundance. However if harvest capacity is limited, then the optimal long-term breeding population size is lower than the highest acceptable level, to reduce the risk of the population growing to an unacceptably large size. Under the proposed density-dependent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at an intermediate level between the bounds on acceptable population size; limits to harvest capacity have little effect on the optimal long-term population size. It is clear that the strength of density-dependence and constraints on harvest significantly affect the optimal harvest strategy for this population. Model discrimination might be achieved in the long term, while continuing to meet management goals, by adopting an adaptive management strategy.

Relationships between human population density and burned area at continental and global scales.

PubMed

Bistinas, Ioannis; Oom, Duarte; Sá, Ana C L; Harrison, Sandy P; Prentice, I Colin; Pereira, José M C

2013-01-01

We explore the large spatial variation in the relationship between population density and burned area, using continental-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) based on 13 years of satellite-derived burned area maps from the global fire emissions database (GFED) and the human population density from the gridded population of the world (GPW 2005). Significant relationships are observed over 51.5% of the global land area, and the area affected varies from continent to continent: population density has a significant impact on fire over most of Asia and Africa but is important in explaining fire over < 22% of Europe and Australia. Increasing population density is associated with both increased and decreased in fire. The nature of the relationship depends on land-use: increasing population density is associated with increased burned are in rangelands but with decreased burned area in croplands. Overall, the relationship between population density and burned area is non-monotonic: burned area initially increases with population density and then decreases when population density exceeds a threshold. These thresholds vary regionally. Our study contributes to improved understanding of how human activities relate to burned area, and should contribute to a better estimate of atmospheric emissions from biomass burning.

Relationships between Human Population Density and Burned Area at Continental and Global Scales

PubMed Central

Bistinas, Ioannis; Oom, Duarte; Sá, Ana C. L.; Harrison, Sandy P.; Prentice, I. Colin; Pereira, José M. C.

2013-01-01

We explore the large spatial variation in the relationship between population density and burned area, using continental-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) based on 13 years of satellite-derived burned area maps from the global fire emissions database (GFED) and the human population density from the gridded population of the world (GPW 2005). Significant relationships are observed over 51.5% of the global land area, and the area affected varies from continent to continent: population density has a significant impact on fire over most of Asia and Africa but is important in explaining fire over < 22% of Europe and Australia. Increasing population density is associated with both increased and decreased in fire. The nature of the relationship depends on land-use: increasing population density is associated with increased burned are in rangelands but with decreased burned area in croplands. Overall, the relationship between population density and burned area is non-monotonic: burned area initially increases with population density and then decreases when population density exceeds a threshold. These thresholds vary regionally. Our study contributes to improved understanding of how human activities relate to burned area, and should contribute to a better estimate of atmospheric emissions from biomass burning. PMID:24358108

Evidence for r- and K-selection in a wild bird population: a reciprocal link between ecology and evolution.

PubMed

Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Visser, Marcel E; Grøtan, Vidar; Engen, Steinar

2016-04-27

Understanding the variation in selection pressure on key life-history traits is crucial in our rapidly changing world. Density is rarely considered as a selective agent. To study its importance, we partition phenotypic selection in fluctuating environments into components representing the population growth rate at low densities and the strength of density dependence, using a new stochastic modelling framework. We analysed the number of eggs laid per season in a small song-bird, the great tit, and found balancing selection favouring large clutch sizes at small population densities and smaller clutches in years with large populations. A significant interaction between clutch size and population size in the regression for the Malthusian fitness reveals that those females producing large clutch sizes at small population sizes also are those that show the strongest reduction in fitness when population size is increased. This provides empirical support for ongoing r- and K-selection in this population, favouring phenotypes with large growth rates r at small population sizes and phenotypes with high competitive skills when populations are close to the carrying capacity K This selection causes long-term fluctuations around a stable mean clutch size caused by variation in population size, implying that r- and K-selection is an important mechanism influencing phenotypic evolution in fluctuating environments. This provides a general link between ecological dynamics and evolutionary processes, operating through a joint influence of density dependence and environmental stochasticity on fluctuations in population size. © 2016 The Author(s).

Productivity, biodiversity, and pathogens influence the global hunter-gatherer population density.

PubMed

Tallavaara, Miikka; Eronen, Jussi T; Luoto, Miska

2018-02-06

The environmental drivers of species distributions and abundances are at the core of ecological research. However, the effects of these drivers on human abundance are not well-known. Here, we report how net primary productivity, biodiversity, and pathogen stress affect human population density using global ethnographic hunter-gatherer data. Our results show that productivity has significant effects on population density globally. The most important direct drivers, however, depend on environmental conditions: biodiversity influences population density exclusively in low-productivity regions, whereas pathogen stress does so in high-productivity regions. Our results also indicate that subtropical and temperate forest biomes provide the highest carrying capacity for hunter-gatherer populations. These findings document that environmental factors play a key role in shaping global population density patterns of preagricultural humans.

Intercohort density dependence drives brown trout habitat selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayllón, Daniel; Nicola, Graciela G.; Parra, Irene; Elvira, Benigno; Almodóvar, Ana

2013-01-01

Habitat selection can be viewed as an emergent property of the quality and availability of habitat but also of the number of individuals and the way they compete for its use. Consequently, habitat selection can change across years due to fluctuating resources or to changes in population numbers. However, habitat selection predictive models often do not account for ecological dynamics, especially density dependent processes. In stage-structured population, the strength of density dependent interactions between individuals of different age classes can exert a profound influence on population trajectories and evolutionary processes. In this study, we aimed to assess the effects of fluctuating densities of both older and younger competing life stages on the habitat selection patterns (described as univariate and multivariate resource selection functions) of young-of-the-year, juvenile and adult brown trout Salmo trutta. We observed all age classes were selective in habitat choice but changed their selection patterns across years consistently with variations in the densities of older but not of younger age classes. Trout of an age increased selectivity for positions highly selected by older individuals when their density decreased, but this pattern did not hold when the density of younger age classes varied. It suggests that younger individuals are dominated by older ones but can expand their range of selected habitats when density of competitors decreases, while older trout do not seem to consider the density of younger individuals when distributing themselves even though they can negatively affect their final performance. Since these results may entail critical implications for conservation and management practices based on habitat selection models, further research should involve a wider range of river typologies and/or longer time frames to fully understand the patterns of and the mechanisms underlying the operation of density dependence on brown trout habitat selection.

Density-dependent resistance of the gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar, to its nucleopolyhedrovirus

Treesearch

James R. Reilly; Ann E. Hajek

2007-01-01

The processes controlling disease resistance can strongly influence the population dynamics of insect outbreaks. Evidence that disease resistance is density-dependent is accumulating, but the exact form of this relationship is highly variable from species to species.

A fitness trade-off between seasons causes multigenerational cycles in phenotype and population size

PubMed Central

Betini, Gustavo S; McAdam, Andrew G; Griswold, Cortland K; Norris, D Ryan

2017-01-01

Although seasonality is widespread and can cause fluctuations in the intensity and direction of natural selection, we have little information about the consequences of seasonal fitness trade-offs for population dynamics. Here we exposed populations of Drosophila melanogaster to repeated seasonal changes in resources across 58 generations and used experimental and mathematical approaches to investigate how viability selection on body size in the non-breeding season could affect demography. We show that opposing seasonal episodes of natural selection on body size interacted with both direct and delayed density dependence to cause populations to undergo predictable multigenerational density cycles. Our results provide evidence that seasonality can set the conditions for life-history trade-offs and density dependence, which can, in turn, interact to cause multigenerational population cycles. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18770.001 PMID:28164780

Precipitation, density, and population dynamics of desert bighorn sheep on San Andres National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bender, L.C.; Weisenberger, M.E.

2005-01-01

Understanding the determinants of population size and performance for desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis mexicana) is critical to develop effective recovery and management strategies. In arid environments, plant communities and consequently herbivore populations are strongly dependent upon precipitation, which is highly variable seasonally and annually. We conducted a retrospective exploratory analysis of desert bighorn sheep population dynamics on San Andres National Wildlife Refuge (SANWR), New Mexico, 1941-1976, by modeling sheep population size as a function of previous population sizes and precipitation. Population size and trend of desert bighorn were best and well described (R 2=0.89) by a model that included only total annual precipitation as a covariate. Models incorporating density-dependence, delayed density-dependence, and combinations of density and precipitation were less informative than the model containing precipitation alone (??AlCc=8.5-22.5). Lamb:female ratios were positively related to precipitation (current year: F1,34=7.09, P=0.012; previous year: F1,33=3.37, P=0.075) but were unrelated to population size (current year. F1,34=0.04, P=0.843; previous year: F1,33 =0.14, P=0.715). Instantaneous population rate of increase (r) was related to population size (F1,33=5.55; P=0.025). Precipitation limited populations of desert bighorn sheep on SANWR primarily in a density-independent manner by affecting production or survival of lambs, likely through influences on forage quantity and quality. Habitat evaluations and recovery plans for desert bighorn sheep need to consider fundamental influences on desert bighorn populations such as precipitation and food, rather than focus solely on proximate issues such as security cover, predation, and disease. Moreover, the concept of carrying capacity for desert bighorn sheep may need re-evaluation in respect to highly variable (CV =35.6%) localized precipitation patterns. On SANWR carrying capacity for desert bighorn sheep was zero when total annual precipitation was <28.2 cm.

Consequences of cannibalism and competition for food in a smallmouth bass population: An individual-based modeling study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dong, Q.; DeAngelis, D.L.

1998-01-01

We used an individual-based modeling approach to study the consequences of cannibalism and competition for food in a freshwater fish population. We simulated the daily foraging, growth, and survival of the age-0 fish and older juvenile individuals of a sample population to reconstruct patterns of density dependence in the age-0 fish during the growth season. Cannibalism occurs as a part of the foraging process. For age-0 fish, older juvenile fish are both potential cannibals and competitors of food. We found that competition and cannibalism produced intraclass and interclass density dependence. Our modeling results suggested the following. (1) With low density of juvenile fish and weak interclass interactions, the age-0 fish recruitment shows a Beverton-Holt type of density dependence. (2) With high density of juvenile fish and strong interclass interactions, the age-0 fish recruitment shows a Ricker type of density dependence, and overcompensation occurs. (3) Interclass competition of food is responsible for much of the overcompensation. (4) Cannibalism intensifies the changes in the recruitment that are brought about by competition. Cannibalism can (a) generally reduce the recruitment, (b) particularly reduce the maximum level of recruitment, (c) cause overcompensation to occur at lower densities, and (d) produce a stronger overcompensation. (5) Growth is also a function of density. Cannibalism generally improves average growth of cannibals. (6) Variation in the lengths of age-0 fish increases with density and with a decreased average growth. These results imply that cannibalism and competition for food could strongly affect recruitment dynamics. Our model also showed that the rate of cannibalism either could be fairly even through the whole season or could vary dramatically. The individual-based modeling approach can help ecologists understand the mechanistic connection between daily behavioral and physiological processes operating at the level of individual organisms and seasonal patterns of population structure and dynamics. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 1998.

Larval crowding accelerates C. elegans development and reduces lifespan.

PubMed

Ludewig, Andreas H; Gimond, Clotilde; Judkins, Joshua C; Thornton, Staci; Pulido, Dania C; Micikas, Robert J; Döring, Frank; Antebi, Adam; Braendle, Christian; Schroeder, Frank C

2017-04-01

Environmental conditions experienced during animal development are thought to have sustained impact on maturation and adult lifespan. Here we show that in the model organism C. elegans developmental rate and adult lifespan depend on larval population density, and that this effect is mediated by excreted small molecules. By using the time point of first egg laying as a marker for full maturity, we found that wildtype hermaphrodites raised under high density conditions developed significantly faster than animals raised in isolation. Population density-dependent acceleration of development (Pdda) was dramatically enhanced in fatty acid β-oxidation mutants that are defective in the biosynthesis of ascarosides, small-molecule signals that induce developmental diapause. In contrast, Pdda is abolished by synthetic ascarosides and steroidal ligands of the nuclear hormone receptor DAF-12. We show that neither ascarosides nor any known steroid hormones are required for Pdda and that another chemical signal mediates this phenotype, in part via the nuclear hormone receptor NHR-8. Our results demonstrate that C. elegans development is regulated by a push-pull mechanism, based on two antagonistic chemical signals: chemosensation of ascarosides slows down development, whereas population-density dependent accumulation of a different chemical signal accelerates development. We further show that the effects of high larval population density persist through adulthood, as C. elegans larvae raised at high densities exhibit significantly reduced adult lifespan and respond differently to exogenous chemical signals compared to larvae raised at low densities, independent of density during adulthood. Our results demonstrate how inter-organismal signaling during development regulates reproductive maturation and longevity.

Larval crowding accelerates C. elegans development and reduces lifespan

PubMed Central

Ludewig, Andreas H.; Gimond, Clotilde; Judkins, Joshua C.; Thornton, Staci; Pulido, Dania C.; Micikas, Robert J.; Döring, Frank; Antebi, Adam; Braendle, Christian; Schroeder, Frank C.

2017-01-01

Environmental conditions experienced during animal development are thought to have sustained impact on maturation and adult lifespan. Here we show that in the model organism C. elegans developmental rate and adult lifespan depend on larval population density, and that this effect is mediated by excreted small molecules. By using the time point of first egg laying as a marker for full maturity, we found that wildtype hermaphrodites raised under high density conditions developed significantly faster than animals raised in isolation. Population density-dependent acceleration of development (Pdda) was dramatically enhanced in fatty acid β-oxidation mutants that are defective in the biosynthesis of ascarosides, small-molecule signals that induce developmental diapause. In contrast, Pdda is abolished by synthetic ascarosides and steroidal ligands of the nuclear hormone receptor DAF-12. We show that neither ascarosides nor any known steroid hormones are required for Pdda and that another chemical signal mediates this phenotype, in part via the nuclear hormone receptor NHR-8. Our results demonstrate that C. elegans development is regulated by a push-pull mechanism, based on two antagonistic chemical signals: chemosensation of ascarosides slows down development, whereas population-density dependent accumulation of a different chemical signal accelerates development. We further show that the effects of high larval population density persist through adulthood, as C. elegans larvae raised at high densities exhibit significantly reduced adult lifespan and respond differently to exogenous chemical signals compared to larvae raised at low densities, independent of density during adulthood. Our results demonstrate how inter-organismal signaling during development regulates reproductive maturation and longevity. PMID:28394895

Field manipulations of resources mediate the transition from intraspecific competition to facilitation.

PubMed

Svanfeldt, Karin; Monro, Keyne; Marshall, Dustin J

2017-05-01

Population density affects individual performance, though its effects are often mixed. For sessile species, increases in population density typically reduce performance. Still, cases of positive density-dependence do occur in sessile systems and demand explanation. The stress gradient hypothesis (SGH) predicts that under stressful conditions, positive effects of facilitation may outweigh the negative effects of competition. While some elements of the SGH are well studied, its potential to explain intraspecific facilitation has received little attention. Further, there have been questions regarding whether the SGH holds if the stressor is a resource. Most studies of interactions between the environment and intraspecific facilitation have relied on natural environmental gradients; manipulative studies are much rarer. To test the effects of intraspecific density and resources, we manipulated resource availability over natural population densities for the marine bryozoan Watersipora subtorquata. We found negative effects of density on colony performance in low resource environments, but mainly positive density-dependence in high resource environments. By adding resources, competition effects were reduced and the positive effects of facilitation were revealed. Our results suggest that resource availability mediates the relative strength of competition and facilitation in our system. We also suggest that intraspecific facilitation is more common than may be appreciated and that environmental variation may mediate the balance between negative and positive density-dependence. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Individual differences, density dependence and offspring birth traits in a population of red deer

PubMed Central

Stopher, Katie V; Pemberton, Josephine M; Clutton-Brock, Tim H; Coulson, Tim

2008-01-01

Variation between individuals is an essential component of natural selection and evolutionary change, but it is only recently that the consequences of persistent differences between individuals on population dynamics have been considered. In particular, few authors have addressed whether interactions exist between individual quality and environmental variation. In part, this is due to the difficulties of collecting sufficient data, but also the challenge of defining individual quality. Using a long-established study population of red deer, Cervus elaphus, inhabiting the North Block of the Isle of Rum, and three quality measures, this paper investigates how differences in maternal quality affect variation in birth body mass and date, as population density varies, and how this differs depending on the sex of the offspring and the maternal quality measure used. Significant interactions between maternal quality, measured as a hind's total contribution to population growth, and population density are reported for birth mass, but only for male calves. Analyses using dominance or age at primiparity to define maternal quality showed no significant interactions with population density, highlighting the difficulties of defining a consistent measure of individual quality. PMID:18522909

The relationship between male moth density and female mating success in invading populations of Lymantria dispar

Treesearch

Patrick C. Tobin; Ksenia S. Onufrieva; Kevin W. Thorpe

2012-01-01

The successful establishment of non-native species in new areas can be affected by many factors including the initial size of the founder population. Populations comprised of fewer individuals tend to be subject to stochastic forces and Allee effects (positive-density dependence), which can challenge the ability of small founder populations to establish in a new area....

Dynamic multipopulation and density dependent evolutionary games related to replicator dynamics. A metasimplex concept.

PubMed

Argasinski, Krzysztof

2006-07-01

This paper contains the basic extensions of classical evolutionary games (multipopulation and density dependent models). It is shown that classical bimatrix approach is inconsistent with other approaches because it does not depend on proportion between populations. The main conclusion is that interspecific proportion parameter is important and must be considered in multipopulation models. The paper provides a synthesis of both extensions (a metasimplex concept) which solves the problem intrinsic in the bimatrix model. It allows us to model interactions among any number of subpopulations including density dependence effects. We prove that all modern approaches to evolutionary games are closely related. All evolutionary models (except classical bimatrix approaches) can be reduced to a single population general model by a simple change of variables. Differences between classic bimatrix evolutionary games and a new model which is dependent on interspecific proportion are shown by examples.

Profound Effects of Population Density on Fitness-Related Traits in an Invasive Freshwater Snail

PubMed Central

Zachar, Nicholas; Neiman, Maurine

2013-01-01

Population density can profoundly influence fitness-related traits and population dynamics, and density dependence plays a key role in many prominent ecological and evolutionary hypotheses. Here, we evaluated how individual-level changes in population density affect growth rate and embryo production early in reproductive maturity in two different asexual lineages of Potamopyrgus antipodarum, a New Zealand freshwater snail that is an important model system for ecotoxicology and the evolution of sexual reproduction as well as a potentially destructive worldwide invader. We showed that population density had a major influence on individual growth rate and early-maturity embryo production, effects that were often apparent even when comparing treatments that differed in population density by only one individual. While individual growth rate generally decreased as population density increased, we detected a hump-shaped relationship between embryo production and density, with females from intermediate-density treatments producing the most embryos and females from low- and high-density treatments producing the fewest embryos. The two lineages responded similarly to the treatments, indicating that these effects of population density might apply more broadly across P. antipodarum. These results indicate that there are profound and complex relationships between population density, growth rate, and early-maturity embryo production in at least two lineages of this important model system, with potential implications for the study of invasive populations, research on the maintenance of sex, and approaches used in ecotoxicology. PMID:24278240

Profound effects of population density on fitness-related traits in an invasive freshwater snail.

PubMed

Zachar, Nicholas; Neiman, Maurine

2013-01-01

Population density can profoundly influence fitness-related traits and population dynamics, and density dependence plays a key role in many prominent ecological and evolutionary hypotheses. Here, we evaluated how individual-level changes in population density affect growth rate and embryo production early in reproductive maturity in two different asexual lineages of Potamopyrgus antipodarum, a New Zealand freshwater snail that is an important model system for ecotoxicology and the evolution of sexual reproduction as well as a potentially destructive worldwide invader. We showed that population density had a major influence on individual growth rate and early-maturity embryo production, effects that were often apparent even when comparing treatments that differed in population density by only one individual. While individual growth rate generally decreased as population density increased, we detected a hump-shaped relationship between embryo production and density, with females from intermediate-density treatments producing the most embryos and females from low- and high-density treatments producing the fewest embryos. The two lineages responded similarly to the treatments, indicating that these effects of population density might apply more broadly across P. antipodarum. These results indicate that there are profound and complex relationships between population density, growth rate, and early-maturity embryo production in at least two lineages of this important model system, with potential implications for the study of invasive populations, research on the maintenance of sex, and approaches used in ecotoxicology.

Predator-induced synchrony in population oscillations of coexisting small mammal species

PubMed Central

Korpimäki, Erkki; Norrdahl, Kai; Huitu, Otso; Klemola, Tero

2005-01-01

Comprehensive analyses of long-term (1977–2003) small-mammal abundance data from western Finland showed that populations of Microtus voles (field voles M. agrestis and sibling voles M. rossiaemeridionalis) voles, bank (Clethrionomys glareolus) and common shrews (Sorex araneus) fluctuated synchronously in 3 year population cycles. Time-series analyses indicated that interspecific synchrony is influenced strongly by density-dependent processes. Synchrony among Microtus and bank voles appeared additionally to be influenced by density-independent processes. To test whether interspecific synchronization through density-dependent processes is caused by predation, we experimentally reduced the densities of the main predators of small mammals in four large agricultural areas, and compared small mammal abundances in these to those in four control areas (2.5–3 km2) through a 3 year small-mammal population cycle. Predator reduction increased densities of the main prey species, Microtus voles, in all phases of the population cycle, while bank voles, the most important alternative prey of predators, responded positively only in the low and the increase phase. Manipulation also increased the autumn densities of water voles (Arvicola terrestris) in the increase phase of the cycle. No treatment effects were detected for common shrews or mice. Our results are in accordance with the alternative prey hypothesis, by which predators successively reduce the densities of both main and alternative prey species after the peak phase of small-mammal population cycles, thus inducing a synchronous low phase. PMID:15695211

Social and Demographic Effects of Anthropogenic Mortality: A Test of the Compensatory Mortality Hypothesis in the Red Wolf

PubMed Central

Sparkman, Amanda M.; Waits, Lisette P.; Murray, Dennis L.

2011-01-01

Whether anthropogenic mortality is additive or compensatory to natural mortality in animal populations has long been a question of theoretical and practical importance. Theoretically, under density-dependent conditions populations compensate for anthropogenic mortality through decreases in natural mortality and/or increases in productivity, but recent studies of large carnivores suggest that anthropogenic mortality can be fully additive to natural mortality and thereby constrain annual survival and population growth rate. Nevertheless, mechanisms underlying either compensatory or additive effects continue to be poorly understood. Using long-term data on a reintroduced population of the red wolf, we tested for evidence of additive vs. compensatory effects of anthropogenic mortality on annual survival and population growth rates, and the preservation and reproductive success of breeding pairs. We found that anthropogenic mortality had a strong additive effect on annual survival and population growth rate at low population density, though there was evidence for compensation in population growth at high density. When involving the death of a breeder, anthropogenic mortality was also additive to natural rates of breeding pair dissolution, resulting in a net decrease in the annual preservation of existing breeding pairs. However, though the disbanding of a pack following death of a breeder resulted in fewer recruits per litter relative to stable packs, there was no relationship between natural rates of pair dissolution and population growth rate at either high or low density. Thus we propose that short-term additive effects of anthropogenic mortality on population growth in the red wolf population at low density were primarily a result of direct mortality of adults rather than indirect socially-mediated effects resulting in reduced recruitment. Finally, we also demonstrate that per capita recruitment and the proportion of adults that became reproductive declined steeply with increasing population density, suggesting that there is potential for density-dependent compensation of anthropogenically-mediated population regulation. PMID:21738589

Evolutionary speed of species invasions.

PubMed

García-Ramos, Gisela; Rodríguez, Diego

2002-04-01

Successful invasion may depend of the capacity of a species to adjust genetically to a spatially varying environment. This research modeled a species invasion by examining the interaction between a quantitative genetic trait and population density. It assumed: (I) a quantitative genetic trait describes the adaptation of an individual to its local ecological conditions; (2) populations far from the local optimum grow more slowly than those near the optimum; and (3) the evolution of a trait depends on local population density, because differences in local population densities cause asymmetrical gene flow. This genetics-density interaction determined the propagation speed of populations. Numerical simulations showed that populations spread by advancing as two synchronic traveling waves, one for population density and one for trait adaptation. The form of the density wave was a step front that advances homogenizing populations at their carrying capacity; the adaptation wave was a curve with finite slope that homogenizes populations at full adaptation. The largest speed of population expansion, for a dimensionless analysis, corresponded to an almost homogeneous spatial environment when this model approached an ecological description such as the Fisher-Skellam's model. A large genetic response also favored faster speeds. Evolutionary speeds, in a natural scale, showed a wide range of rates that were also slower compared to models that only consider demographics. This evolutionary speed increased with high heritability, strong stabilizing selection, and high intrinsic growth rate. It decreased for steeper environmental gradients. Also indicated was an optimal dispersal rate over which evolutionary speed declined. This is expected because dispersal moves individuals further, but homogenizes populations genetically, making them maladapted. The evolutionary speed was compared to observed data. Furthermore, a moderate increase in the speed of expansion was predicted for ecological changes related to global warming.

DENSITY-DEPENDENT SELECTION ON CONTINUOUS CHARACTERS: A QUANTITATIVE GENETIC MODEL.

PubMed

Tanaka, Yoshinari

1996-10-01

A quantitative genetic model of density-dependent selection is presented and analysed with parameter values obtained from laboratory selection experiments conducted by Mueller and his coworkers. The ecological concept of r- and K-selection is formulated in terms of selection gradients on underlying phenotypic characters that influence the density-dependent measure of fitness. Hence the selection gradients on traits are decomposed into two components, one that changes in the direction to increase r, and one that changes in the direction to increase K. The relative importance of the two components is determined by temporal fluctuations in population density. The evolutionary rate of r and K (per-generation changes in r and K due to the genetic responses of the underlying traits) is also formulated. Numerical simulation has shown that with moderate genetic variances of the underlying characters, r and K can evolve rapidly and the evolutionary rate is influenced by synergistic interaction between characters that contribute to r and K. But strong r-selection can occur only with severe and continuous disturbances of populations so that the population density is kept low enough to prevent K-selection. © 1996 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Assessing the roles of population density and predation risk in the evolution of offspring size in populations of a placental fish

PubMed Central

Schrader, Matthew; Travis, Joseph

2012-01-01

Population density is an ecological variable that is hypothesized to be a major agent of selection on offspring size. In high-density populations, high levels of intraspecific competition are expected to favor the production of larger offspring. In contrast, lower levels of intraspecific competition and selection for large offspring should be weaker and more easily overridden by direct selection for increased fecundity in low-density populations. Some studies have found associations between population density and offspring size consistent with this hypothesis. However, their interpretations are often clouded by a number of issues. Here, we use data from a 10-year study of nine populations of the least killifish, Heterandria formosa, to describe the associations of offspring size with habitat type, population density, and predation risk. We found that females from spring populations generally produced larger offspring than females from ponds; however, the magnitude of this difference varied among years. Across all populations, larger offspring were associated with higher densities and lower risks of predation. Interestingly, the associations between the two ecological variables (density and predation risk) and offspring size were largely independent of one another. Our results suggest that previously described genetic differences in offspring size are due to density-dependent natural selection. PMID:22957156

A kinetic theory for age-structured stochastic birth-death processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, Tom; Greenman, Chris

Classical age-structured mass-action models such as the McKendrick-von Foerster equation have been extensively studied but they are structurally unable to describe stochastic fluctuations or population-size-dependent birth and death rates. Conversely, current theories that include size-dependent population dynamics (e.g., carrying capacity) cannot be easily extended to take into account age-dependent birth and death rates. In this paper, we present a systematic derivation of a new fully stochastic kinetic theory for interacting age-structured populations. By defining multiparticle probability density functions, we derive a hierarchy of kinetic equations for the stochastic evolution of an aging population undergoing birth and death. We show that the fully stochastic age-dependent birth-death process precludes factorization of the corresponding probability densities, which then must be solved by using a BBGKY-like hierarchy. Our results generalize both deterministic models and existing master equation approaches by providing an intuitive and efficient way to simultaneously model age- and population-dependent stochastic dynamics applicable to the study of demography, stem cell dynamics, and disease evolution. NSF.

The landscape configuration of zoonotic transmission of Ebola virus disease in West and Central Africa: interaction between population density and vegetation cover.

PubMed

Walsh, Michael G; Haseeb, Ma

2015-01-01

Ebola virus disease (EVD) is an emerging infectious disease of zoonotic origin that has been responsible for high mortality and significant social disruption in West and Central Africa. Zoonotic transmission of EVD requires contact between susceptible human hosts and the reservoir species for Ebolaviruses, which are believed to be fruit bats. Nevertheless, features of the landscape that may facilitate such points of contact have not yet been adequately identified. Nor have spatial dependencies between zoonotic EVD transmission and landscape structures been delineated. This investigation sought to describe the spatial relationship between zoonotic EVD transmission events, or spillovers, and population density and vegetation cover. An inhomogeneous Poisson process model was fitted to all precisely geolocated zoonotic transmissions of EVD in West and Central Africa. Population density was strongly associated with spillover; however, there was significant interaction between population density and green vegetation cover. In areas of very low population density, increasing vegetation cover was associated with a decrease in risk of zoonotic transmission, but as population density increased in a given area, increasing vegetation cover was associated with increased risk of zoonotic transmission. This study showed that the spatial dependencies of Ebolavirus spillover were associated with the distribution of population density and vegetation cover in the landscape, even after controlling for climate and altitude. While this is an observational study, and thus precludes direct causal inference, the findings do highlight areas that may be at risk for zoonotic EVD transmission based on the spatial configuration of important features of the landscape.

Natal movement in juvenile Atlantic salmon: a body size-dependent strategy?

Treesearch

Sigurd Einum; Anders G. Finstad; Grethe Robertsen; Keith H. Nislow; Simon McKelvey; John D. Armstrong

2012-01-01

If competitive ability depends on body size, then the optimal natal movement from areas of high local population density can also be predicted to be size-dependent. Specifically, small, competitively-inferior individuals would be expected to benefit most from moving to areas of lower local density. Here we evaluate whether individual variation in natal movement...

The scaling of contact rates with population density for the infectious disease models.

PubMed

Hu, Hao; Nigmatulina, Karima; Eckhoff, Philip

2013-08-01

Contact rates and patterns among individuals in a geographic area drive transmission of directly-transmitted pathogens, making it essential to understand and estimate contacts for simulation of disease dynamics. Under the uniform mixing assumption, one of two mechanisms is typically used to describe the relation between contact rate and population density: density-dependent or frequency-dependent. Based on existing evidence of population threshold and human mobility patterns, we formulated a spatial contact model to describe the appropriate form of transmission with initial growth at low density and saturation at higher density. We show that the two mechanisms are extreme cases that do not capture real population movement across all scales. Empirical data of human and wildlife diseases indicate that a nonlinear function may work better when looking at the full spectrum of densities. This estimation can be applied to large areas with population mixing in general activities. For crowds with unusually large densities (e.g., transportation terminals, stadiums, or mass gatherings), the lack of organized social contact structure deviates the physical contacts towards a special case of the spatial contact model - the dynamics of kinetic gas molecule collision. In this case, an ideal gas model with van der Waals correction fits well; existing movement observation data and the contact rate between individuals is estimated using kinetic theory. A complete picture of contact rate scaling with population density may help clarify the definition of transmission rates in heterogeneous, large-scale spatial systems. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The many faces of population density.

PubMed

Mayor, Stephen J; Schaefer, James A

2005-09-01

Population density, one of the most fundamental demographic attributes, may vary systematically with spatial scale, but this scale-sensitivity is incompletely understood. We used a novel approach-based on fully censused and mapped distributions of eastern grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) dreys, beaver (Castor canadensis) lodges, and moose (Alces alces)--to explore the scale-dependence of population density and its relationship to landscape features. We identified population units at several scales, both objectively, using cluster analysis, and arbitrarily, using artificial bounds centred on high-abundance sites. Densities declined with census area. For dreys, this relationship was stronger in objective versus arbitrary population units. Drey density was inconsistently related to patch area, a relationship that was positive for all patches but negative when non-occupied patches were excluded. Drey density was negatively related to the proportion of green-space and positively related to the density of buildings or roads, relationships that were accentuated at coarser scales. Mean drey densities were more sensitive to scale when calculated as organism-weighted versus area-weighted averages. Greater understanding of these scaling effects is required to facilitate comparisons of population density across studies.

Positive and Negative Feedbacks and Free-Scale Pattern Distribution in Rural-Population Dynamics

PubMed Central

Alados, Concepción L.; Errea, Paz; Gartzia, Maite; Saiz, Hugo; Escós, Juan

2014-01-01

Depopulation of rural areas is a widespread phenomenon that has occurred in most industrialized countries, and has contributed significantly to a reduction in the productivity of agro-ecological resources. In this study, we identified the main trends in the dynamics of rural populations in the Central Pyrenees in the 20th C and early 21st C, and used density independent and density dependent models and identified the main factors that have influenced the dynamics. In addition, we investigated the change in the power law distribution of population size in those periods. Populations exhibited density-dependent positive feedback between 1960 and 2010, and a long-term positive correlation between agricultural activity and population size, which has resulted in a free-scale population distribution that has been disrupted by the collapse of the traditional agricultural society and by emigration to the industrialized cities. We concluded that complex socio-ecological systems that have strong feedback mechanisms can contribute to disruptive population collapses, which can be identified by changes in the pattern of population distribution. PMID:25474704

Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

USGS Publications Warehouse

McEachern, Kathryn; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Ellis, Martha M.; Morris, William F.; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlen, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer I.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ganesan, Rengaian; Thorpe, Andrea S.; Menges, Eric S.

2013-01-01

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

PubMed

Crone, Elizabeth E; Ellis, Martha M; Morris, William F; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlén, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N; Knight, Tiffany M; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer L; Doak, Daniel F; Ganesan, Rengaian; McEachern, Kathyrn; Thorpe, Andrea S; Menges, Eric S

2013-10-01

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Population dynamics and mutualism: Functional responses of benefits and costs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Bronstein, Judith L.

2002-01-01

We develop an approach for studying population dynamics resulting from mutualism by employing functional responses based on density‐dependent benefits and costs. These functional responses express how the population growth rate of a mutualist is modified by the density of its partner. We present several possible dependencies of gross benefits and costs, and hence net effects, to a mutualist as functions of the density of its partner. Net effects to mutualists are likely a monotonically saturating or unimodal function of the density of their partner. We show that fundamental differences in the growth, limitation, and dynamics of a population can occur when net effects to that population change linearly, unimodally, or in a saturating fashion. We use the mutualism between senita cactus and its pollinating seed‐eating moth as an example to show the influence of different benefit and cost functional responses on population dynamics and stability of mutualisms. We investigated two mechanisms that may alter this mutualism's functional responses: distribution of eggs among flowers and fruit abortion. Differences in how benefits and costs vary with density can alter the stability of this mutualism. In particular, fruit abortion may allow for a stable equilibrium where none could otherwise exist.

Experimental test of an eco-evolutionary dynamic feedback loop between evolution and population density in the green peach aphid.

PubMed

Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Daniel Hare, J

2013-05-01

An eco-evolutionary feedback loop is defined as the reciprocal impacts of ecology on evolutionary dynamics and evolution on ecological dynamics on contemporary timescales. We experimentally tested for an eco-evolutionary feedback loop in the green peach aphid, Myzus persicae, by manipulating initial densities and evolution. We found strong evidence that initial aphid density alters the rate and direction of evolution, as measured by changes in genotype frequencies through time. We also found that evolution of aphids within only 16 days, or approximately three generations, alters the rate of population growth and predicts density compared to nonevolving controls. The impact of evolution on population dynamics also depended on density. In one evolution treatment, evolution accelerated population growth by up to 10.3% at high initial density or reduced it by up to 6.4% at low initial density. The impact of evolution on population growth was as strong as or stronger than that caused by a threefold change in intraspecific density. We found that, taken together, ecological condition, here intraspecific density, alters evolutionary dynamics, which in turn alter concurrent population growth rate (ecological dynamics) in an eco-evolutionary feedback loop. Our results suggest that ignoring evolution in studies predicting population dynamics might lead us to over- or underestimate population density and that we cannot predict the evolutionary outcome within aphid populations without considering population size.

A consumer-resource approach to the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism.

PubMed

Holland, J Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L

2010-05-01

Like predation and competition, mutualism is now recognized as a consumer-resource (C-R) interaction, including, in particular, bi-directional (e.g., coral, plant-mycorrhizae) and uni-directional (e.g., ant-plant defense, plant-pollinator) C-R mutualisms. Here, we develop general theory for the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism based on the C-R mechanism of interspecific interaction. To test the influence of C-R interactions on the dynamics and stability of bi- and uni-directional C-R mutualisms, we developed simple models that link consumer functional response of one mutualistic species with the resources supplied by another. Phase-plane analyses show that the ecological dynamics of C-R mutualisms are stable in general. Most transient behavior leads to an equilibrium of mutualistic coexistence, at which both species densities are greater than in the absence of interactions. However, due to the basic nature of C-R interactions, certain density-dependent conditions can lead to C-R dynamics characteristic of predator-prey interactions, in which one species overexploits and causes the other to go extinct. Consistent with empirical phenomena, these results suggest that the C-R interaction can provide a broad mechanism for understanding density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism. By unifying predation, competition, and mutualism under the common ecological framework of consumer-resource theory, we may also gain a better understanding of the universal features of interspecific interactions in general.

A consumer-resource approach to the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2010-01-01

Like predation and competition, mutualism is now recognized as a consumer resource (C-R) interaction, including, in particular, bi-directional (e.g., coral, plant- mycorrhizae) and uni-directional (e.g., ant-plant defense, plant-pollinator) C-R mutualisms. Here, we develop general theory for the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism based on the C-R mechanism of interspecific interaction. To test the influence of C-R interactions on the dynamics and stability of bi- and uni-directional C-R mutualisms, we developed simple models that link consumer functional response of one mutualistic species with the resources supplied by another. Phase-plane analyses show that the ecological dynamics of C-R mutualisms are stable in general. Most transient behavior leads to an equilibrium of mutualistic coexistence, at which both species densities are greater than in the absence of interactions. However, due to the basic nature of C-R interactions, certain density-dependent conditions can lead to C-R dynamics characteristic of predator-prey interactions, in which one species overexploits and causes the other to go extinct. Consistent with empirical phenomena, these results suggest that the C-R interaction can provide a broad mechanism for understanding density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism. By unifying predation, competition, and mutualism under the common ecological framework of consumer-resource theory, we may also gain a better understanding of the universal features of interspecific interactions in general.

Predicting population survival under future climate change: density dependence, drought and extraction in an insular bighorn sheep.

PubMed

Colchero, Fernando; Medellin, Rodrigo A; Clark, James S; Lee, Raymond; Katul, Gabriel G

2009-05-01

1. Our understanding of the interplay between density dependence, climatic perturbations, and conservation practices on the dynamics of small populations is still limited. This can result in uninformed strategies that put endangered populations at risk. Moreover, the data available for a large number of populations in such circumstances are sparse and mined with missing data. Under the current climate change scenarios, it is essential to develop appropriate inferential methods that can make use of such data sets. 2. We studied a population of desert bighorn sheep introduced to Tiburon Island, Mexico in 1975 and subjected to irregular extractions for the last 10 years. The unique attributes of this population are absence of predation and disease, thereby permitting us to explore the combined effect of density dependence, environmental variability and extraction in a 'controlled setting.' Using a combination of nonlinear discrete models with long-term field data, we constructed three basic Bayesian state space models with increasing density dependence (DD), and the same three models with the addition of summer drought effects. 3. We subsequently used Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the combined effect of drought, DD, and increasing extractions on the probability of population survival under two climate change scenarios (based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predictions): (i) increase in drought variability; and (ii) increase in mean drought severity. 4. The population grew from 16 individuals introduced in 1975 to close to 700 by 1993. Our results show that the population's growth was dominated by DD, with drought having a secondary but still relevant effect on its dynamics. 5. Our predictions suggest that under climate change scenario (i), extraction dominates the fate of the population, while for scenario (ii), an increase in mean drought affects the population's probability of survival in an equivalent magnitude as extractions. Thus, for the long-term survival of the population, our results stress that a more variable environment is less threatening than one in which the mean conditions become harsher. Current climate change scenarios and their underlying uncertainty make studies such as this one crucial for understanding the dynamics of ungulate populations and their conservation.

Density-dependent coral recruitment displays divergent responses during distinct early life-history stages

PubMed Central

Evensen, Nicolas R.; Gómez-Lemos, Luis A.; Babcock, Russell C.

2017-01-01

Population growth involves demographic bottlenecks that regulate recruitment success during various early life-history stages. The success of each early life-history stage can vary in response to population density, interacting with intrinsic (e.g. behavioural) and environmental (e.g. competition, predation) factors. Here, we used the common reef-building coral Acropora millepora to investigate how density-dependence influences larval survival and settlement in laboratory experiments that isolated intrinsic effects, and post-settlement survival in a field experiment that examined interactions with environmental factors. Larval survival was exceptionally high (greater than 80%) and density-independent from 2.5 to 12 days following spawning. By contrast, there was a weak positive effect of larval density on settlement, driven by gregarious behaviour at the highest density. When larval supply was saturated, settlement was three times higher in crevices compared with exposed microhabitats, but a negative relationship between settler density and post-settlement survival in crevices and density-independent survival on exposed surfaces resulted in similar recruit densities just one month following settlement. Moreover, a negative relationship was found between turf algae and settler survival in crevices, whereas gregarious settlement improved settler survival on exposed surfaces. Overall, our findings reveal divergent responses by coral larvae and newly settled recruits to density-dependent regulation, mediated by intrinsic and environmental interactions. PMID:28573015

Thermal and energetic constraints on ectotherm abundance: A global test using lizards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buckley, L.B.; Rodda, G.H.; Jetz, W.

2008-01-01

Population densities of birds and mammals have been shown to decrease with body mass at approximately the same rate as metabolic rates increase, indicating that energetic needs constrain endotherm population densities. In ectotherms, the exponential increase of metabolic rate with body temperature suggests that environmental temperature may additionally constrain population densities. Here we test simple bioenergetic models for an ecologically important group of ectothermic vertebrates by examining 483 lizard populations. We find that lizard population densities decrease as a power law of body mass with a slope approximately inverse to the slope of the relationship between metabolic rates and body mass. Energy availability should limit population densities. As predicted, environmental productivity has a positive effect on lizard density, strengthening the relationship between lizard density and body mass. In contrast, the effect of environmental temperature is at most weak due to behavioral thermoregulation, thermal evolution, or the temperature dependence of ectotherm performance. Our results provide initial insights into how energy needs and availability differentially constrain ectotherm and endotherm density across broad spatial scales. ?? 2008 by the Ecological Society of America.

Thermal and energetic constraints on ectotherm abundance: a global test using lizards.

PubMed

Buckley, Lauren B; Rodda, Gordon H; Jetz, Walter

2008-01-01

Population densities of birds and mammals have been shown to decrease with body mass at approximately the same rate as metabolic rates increase, indicating that energetic needs constrain endotherm population densities. In ectotherms, the exponential increase of metabolic rate with body temperature suggests that environmental temperature may additionally constrain population densities. Here we test simple bioenergetic models for an ecologically important group of ectothermic vertebrates by examining 483 lizard populations. We find that lizard population densities decrease as a power law of body mass with a slope approximately inverse to the slope of the relationship between metabolic rates and body mass. Energy availability should limit population densities. As predicted, environmental productivity has a positive effect on lizard density, strengthening the relationship between lizard density and body mass. In contrast, the effect of environmental temperature is at most weak due to behavioral thermoregulation, thermal evolution, or the temperature dependence of ectotherm performance. Our results provide initial insights into how energy needs and availability differentially constrain ectotherm and endotherm density across broad spatial scales.

Variation of genetic diversity in a rapidly expanding population of the greater long-tailed hamster (Tscherskia triton) as revealed by microsatellites.

PubMed

Xu, Laixiang; Xue, Huiliang; Song, Mingjing; Zhao, Qinghua; Dong, Jingping; Liu, Juan; Guo, Yu; Xu, Tongqin; Cao, Xiaoping; Wang, Fusheng; Wang, Shuqing; Hao, Shushen; Yang, Hefang; Zhang, Zhibin

2013-01-01

Genetic diversity is essential for persistence of animal populations over both the short- and long-term. Previous studies suggest that genetic diversity may decrease with population decline due to genetic drift or inbreeding of small populations. For oscillating populations, there are some studies on the relationship between population density and genetic diversity, but these studies were based on short-term observation or in low-density phases. Evidence from rapidly expanding populations is lacking. In this study, genetic diversity of a rapidly expanding population of the Greater long-tailed hamsters during 1984-1990, in the Raoyang County of the North China Plain was studied using DNA microsatellite markers. Results show that genetic diversity was positively correlated with population density (as measured by % trap success), and the increase in population density was correlated with a decrease of genetic differentiation between the sub-population A and B. The genetic diversity tended to be higher in spring than in autumn. Variation in population density and genetic diversity are consistent between sub-population A and B. Such results suggest that dispersal is density- and season-dependent in a rapidly expanding population of the Greater long-tailed hamster. For typically solitary species, increasing population density can increase intra-specific attack, which is a driving force for dispersal. This situation is counterbalanced by decreasing population density caused by genetic drift or inbreeding as the result of small population size. Season is a major factor influencing population density and genetic diversity. Meanwhile, roads, used to be considered as geographical isolation, have less effect on genetic differentiation in a rapidly expanding population. Evidences suggest that gene flow (Nm) is positively correlated with population density, and it is significant higher in spring than that in autumn.

Adult trees cause density-dependent mortality in conspecific seedlings by regulating the frequency of pathogenic soil fungi.

PubMed

Liang, Minxia; Liu, Xubing; Gilbert, Gregory S; Zheng, Yi; Luo, Shan; Huang, Fengmin; Yu, Shixiao

2016-12-01

Negative density-dependent seedling mortality has been widely detected in tropical, subtropical and temperate forests, with soil pathogens as a major driver. Here we investigated how host density affects the composition of soil pathogen communities and consequently influences the strength of plant-soil feedbacks. In field censuses of six 1-ha permanent plots, we found that survival was much lower for newly germinated seedlings that were surrounded by more conspecific adults. The relative abundance of pathogenic fungi in soil increased with increasing conspecific tree density for five of nine tree species; more soil pathogens accumulated around roots where adult tree density was higher, and this greater pathogen frequency was associated with lower seedling survival. Our findings show how tree density influences populations of soil pathogens, which creates plant-soil feedbacks that contribute to community-level and population-level compensatory trends in seedling survival. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

The role of demographic compensation theory in incidental take assessments for endangered species

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.; Ryan, Mark R.; Runge, Michael C.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Cochrane, Jean Fitts

2011-01-01

Many endangered species laws provide exceptions to legislated prohibitions through incidental take provisions as long as take is the result of unintended consequences of an otherwise legal activity. These allowances presumably invoke the theory of demographic compensation, commonly applied to harvested species, by allowing limited harm as long as the probability of the species' survival or recovery is not reduced appreciably. Demographic compensation requires some density-dependent limits on survival or reproduction in a species' annual cycle that can be alleviated through incidental take. Using a population model for piping plovers in the Great Plains, we found that when the population is in rapid decline or when there is no density dependence, the probability of quasi-extinction increased linearly with increasing take. However, when the population is near stability and subject to density-dependent survival, there was no relationship between quasi-extinction probability and take rates. We note however, that a brief examination of piping plover demography and annual cycles suggests little room for compensatory capacity. We argue that a population's capacity for demographic compensation of incidental take should be evaluated when considering incidental allowances because compensation is the only mechanism whereby a population can absorb the negative effects of take without incurring a reduction in the probability of survival in the wild. With many endangered species there is probably little known about density dependence and compensatory capacity. Under these circumstances, using multiple system models (with and without compensation) to predict the population's response to incidental take and implementing follow-up monitoring to assess species response may be valuable in increasing knowledge and improving future decision making.

Neighbourhood density and genetic relatedness interact to determine fruit set and abortion rates in a continuous tropical tree population

PubMed Central

Jones, F.A; Comita, L.S

2008-01-01

Tropical trees may show positive density dependence in fruit set and maturation due to pollen limitation in low-density populations. However, pollen from closely related individuals in the local neighbourhood might reduce fruit set or increase fruit abortion in self-incompatible tree species. We investigated the role of neighbourhood density and genetic relatedness on individual fruit set and abortion in the neotropical tree Jacaranda copaia in a large forest plot in central Panama. Using nested neighbourhood models, we found a strong positive effect of increased conspecific density on fruit set and maturation. However, high neighbourhood genetic relatedness interacted with density to reduce total fruit set and increase the proportion of aborted fruit. Our results imply a fitness advantage for individuals growing in high densities as measured by fruit set, but realized fruit set is lowered by increased neighbourhood relatedness. We hypothesize that the mechanism involved is increased visitation by density-dependent invertebrate pollinators in high-density populations, which increases pollen quantity and carry-over and increases fruit set and maturation, coupled with self-incompatibility at early and late stages due to biparental inbreeding that lowers fruit set and increases fruit abortion. Implications for the reproductive ecology and conservation of tropical tree communities in continuous and fragmented habitats are discussed. PMID:18713714

Density dependent interactions between VA mycorrhizal fungi and even-aged seedlings of two perennial Fabaceae species.

PubMed

Allsopp, N; Stock, W D

1992-08-01

The interaction of density and mycorrhizal effects on the growth, mineral nutrition and size distribution of seedlings of two perennial members of the Fabaceae was investigated in pot culture. Seedlings of Otholobium hirtum and Aspalathus linearis were grown at densities of 1, 4, 8 and 16 plants per 13-cm pot with or without vesicular-arbuscular (VA) mycorrhizal inoculum for 120 days. Plant mass, relative growth rates, height and leaf number all decreased with increasing plant density. This was ascribed to the decreasing availability of phosphorus per plant as density increased. O. hirtum was highly dependent on mycorrhizas for P uptake but both mycorrhizal and non-mycorrhizal A. linearis seedlings were able to extract soil P with equal ease. Plant size distribution as measured by the coefficient of variation (CV) of shoot mass was greater at higher densities. CVs of mycorrhizal O. hirtum plants were higher than those of non-mycorrhizal plants. CVs of the facultatively mycorrhizal A. linearis were similar for both mycorrhizal and non-mycorrhizal plants. Higher CVs are attributed to resource preemption by larger individuals. Individuals in populations with high CVs will probably survive stress which would result in the extinction of populations with low CVs. Mass of mycorrhizal plants of both species decreased more rapidly with increasing density than did non-mycorrhizal plant mass. It is concluded that the cost of being mycorrhizal increases as plant density increases, while the benefit decreases. The results suggest that mycorrhizas will influence density-dependent population processes of faculative and obligate mycorrhizal species.

Paradoxical effects of density on measurement of copper tolerance in Silene paradoxa L.

PubMed

Capuana, Maurizio; Colzi, Ilaria; Buccianti, Antonella; Coppi, Andrea; Palm, Emily; Del Bubba, Massimo; Gonnelli, Cristina

2018-01-01

This work investigated if the assessment of tolerance to trace metals can depend on plant density in the experimental design. A non-metallicolous and a metallicolous populations of Silene paradoxa were hydroponically cultivated at increasing density and in both the absence (-Cu conditions) and excess of copper (+Cu conditions). In -Cu conditions, the metallicolous population showed a lower susceptibility to plant density in comparison to the non-metallicolous one, explained by a higher capacity of the metallicolous population to exploit resources. In +Cu conditions, an alleviating effect of increasing density was found in roots. Such effect was present to a greater extent in the non-metallicolous population, thus making the populations equally copper-tolerant at the highest density used. In shoots, an additive effect of increasing plant density to copper toxicity was reported. Its higher intensity in the metallicolous population reverted the copper tolerance relationship at the highest plant densities used. In both populations, a density-induced decrease in root copper accumulation was observed, thus concurring to the reported mitigation in +Cu conditions. Our work revealed the importance of density studies on the optimization of eco-toxicological bioassays and of metal tolerance assessment and it can be considered the first example of an alleviating effect of increasing plant number on copper stress in a metallophyte.

Ant-inspired density estimation via random walks.

PubMed

Musco, Cameron; Su, Hsin-Hao; Lynch, Nancy A

2017-10-03

Many ant species use distributed population density estimation in applications ranging from quorum sensing, to task allocation, to appraisal of enemy colony strength. It has been shown that ants estimate local population density by tracking encounter rates: The higher the density, the more often the ants bump into each other. We study distributed density estimation from a theoretical perspective. We prove that a group of anonymous agents randomly walking on a grid are able to estimate their density within a small multiplicative error in few steps by measuring their rates of encounter with other agents. Despite dependencies inherent in the fact that nearby agents may collide repeatedly (and, worse, cannot recognize when this happens), our bound nearly matches what would be required to estimate density by independently sampling grid locations. From a biological perspective, our work helps shed light on how ants and other social insects can obtain relatively accurate density estimates via encounter rates. From a technical perspective, our analysis provides tools for understanding complex dependencies in the collision probabilities of multiple random walks. We bound the strength of these dependencies using local mixing properties of the underlying graph. Our results extend beyond the grid to more general graphs, and we discuss applications to size estimation for social networks, density estimation for robot swarms, and random walk-based sampling for sensor networks.

Spatial dynamics of a population with stage-dependent diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azevedo, F.; Coutinho, R. M.; Kraenkel, R. A.

2015-05-01

We explore the spatial dynamics of a population whose individuals go through life stages with very different dispersal capacities. We model it through a system of partial differential equations of the reaction-diffusion kind, with nonlinear diffusion terms that may depend on population density and on the stage. This model includes a few key biological ingredients: growth and saturation, life stage structure, small population effects, and diffusion dependent on the stage. In particular, we consider that adults exhibit two distinct classes: one highly mobile and the other less mobile but with higher fecundity rate, and the development of juveniles into one or the other depends on population density. We parametrize the model with estimated parameters of an insect species, the brown planthopper. We focus on a situation akin to an invasion of the species in a new habitat and find that the front of invasion is led by the most mobile adult class. We also show that the trade-off between dispersal and fecundity leads to invasion speed attaining its maximum at an intermediate value of the diffusion coefficient of the most mobile class.

Kinetic theory of age-structured stochastic birth-death processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenman, Chris D.; Chou, Tom

2016-01-01

Classical age-structured mass-action models such as the McKendrick-von Foerster equation have been extensively studied but are unable to describe stochastic fluctuations or population-size-dependent birth and death rates. Stochastic theories that treat semi-Markov age-dependent processes using, e.g., the Bellman-Harris equation do not resolve a population's age structure and are unable to quantify population-size dependencies. Conversely, current theories that include size-dependent population dynamics (e.g., mathematical models that include carrying capacity such as the logistic equation) cannot be easily extended to take into account age-dependent birth and death rates. In this paper, we present a systematic derivation of a new, fully stochastic kinetic theory for interacting age-structured populations. By defining multiparticle probability density functions, we derive a hierarchy of kinetic equations for the stochastic evolution of an aging population undergoing birth and death. We show that the fully stochastic age-dependent birth-death process precludes factorization of the corresponding probability densities, which then must be solved by using a Bogoliubov--Born--Green--Kirkwood--Yvon-like hierarchy. Explicit solutions are derived in three limits: no birth, no death, and steady state. These are then compared with their corresponding mean-field results. Our results generalize both deterministic models and existing master equation approaches by providing an intuitive and efficient way to simultaneously model age- and population-dependent stochastic dynamics applicable to the study of demography, stem cell dynamics, and disease evolution.

Effects of hatchery fish density on emigration, growth, survival, and predation risk of natural steelhead parr in an experimental stream channel

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tatara, Christopher P.; Riley, Stephen C.; Berejikian, Barry A.

2011-01-01

Hatchery supplementation of steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss raises concerns about the impacts on natural populations, including reduced growth and survival, displacement, and increased predation. The potential risks may be density dependent.We examined how hatchery stocking density and the opportunity to emigrate affect the responses of natural steelhead parr in an experimental stream channel and after 15 d found no density-dependent effects on growth, emigration, or survival at densities ranging from 1-6 hatchery parr/m2. The opportunity for steelhead parr to emigrate reduced predation by coastal cutthroat trout O. clarkii clarkii on both hatchery and natural steelhead parr. The cutthroat trout exhibited a type-I functional response (constant predation rate with increased prey density) for the hatchery and composite populations. In contrast, the predation rate on natural parr decreased as hatchery stocking density increased. Supplementation with hatchery parr at any experimental stocking density reduced the final natural parr density. This decline was explained by increased emigration fromthe supplemented groups. Natural parr had higher mean instantaneous growth rates than hatchery parr. The proportion of parr emigrating decreased as parr size increased over successive experimental trials. Smaller parr had lower survival and suffered higher predation. The final density of the composite population, a measure of supplementation effectiveness, increased with the hatchery steelhead stocking rate. Our results indicate that stocking larger hatchery parr (over 50 d postemergence) at densities within the carrying capacity would have low short-term impact on the growth, survival, and emigration of natural parr while increasing the density of the composite population; in addition, a stocking density greater than 3 fish/m2 might be a good starting point for the evaluation of parr stocking in natural streams.

Population response to climate change: linear vs. non-linear modeling approaches.

PubMed

Ellis, Alicia M; Post, Eric

2004-03-31

Research on the ecological consequences of global climate change has elicited a growing interest in the use of time series analysis to investigate population dynamics in a changing climate. Here, we compare linear and non-linear models describing the contribution of climate to the density fluctuations of the population of wolves on Isle Royale, Michigan from 1959 to 1999. The non-linear self excitatory threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model revealed that, due to differences in the strength and nature of density dependence, relatively small and large populations may be differentially affected by future changes in climate. Both linear and non-linear models predict a decrease in the population of wolves with predicted changes in climate. Because specific predictions differed between linear and non-linear models, our study highlights the importance of using non-linear methods that allow the detection of non-linearity in the strength and nature of density dependence. Failure to adopt a non-linear approach to modelling population response to climate change, either exclusively or in addition to linear approaches, may compromise efforts to quantify ecological consequences of future warming.

When can the cause of a population decline be determined?

PubMed

Hefley, Trevor J; Hooten, Mevin B; Drake, John M; Russell, Robin E; Walsh, Daniel P

2016-11-01

Inferring the factors responsible for declines in abundance is a prerequisite to preventing the extinction of wild populations. Many of the policies and programmes intended to prevent extinctions operate on the assumption that the factors driving the decline of a population can be determined. Exogenous factors that cause declines in abundance can be statistically confounded with endogenous factors such as density dependence. To demonstrate the potential for confounding, we used an experiment where replicated populations were driven to extinction by gradually manipulating habitat quality. In many of the replicated populations, habitat quality and density dependence were confounded, which obscured causal inference. Our results show that confounding is likely to occur when the exogenous factors that are driving the decline change gradually over time. Our study has direct implications for wild populations, because many factors that could drive a population to extinction change gradually through time. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

When can the cause of a population decline be determined?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Drake, John M.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.

2016-01-01

Inferring the factors responsible for declines in abundance is a prerequisite to preventing the extinction of wild populations. Many of the policies and programmes intended to prevent extinctions operate on the assumption that the factors driving the decline of a population can be determined. Exogenous factors that cause declines in abundance can be statistically confounded with endogenous factors such as density dependence. To demonstrate the potential for confounding, we used an experiment where replicated populations were driven to extinction by gradually manipulating habitat quality. In many of the replicated populations, habitat quality and density dependence were confounded, which obscured causal inference. Our results show that confounding is likely to occur when the exogenous factors that are driving the decline change gradually over time. Our study has direct implications for wild populations, because many factors that could drive a population to extinction change gradually through time.

Multiple density dependence in two sub-populations of the amphipod Monoporeia affinis: a potential for alternative equilibria.

PubMed

Leonardsson, Kjell

1994-02-01

Possible mechanisms for differences in population densities and dynamics were investigated in the amphipod Monoporeia affinis at two deep sites in the northern Bothnian Sea. The two sites were sampled yearly for 10 years. Average sizes, growth and mortality of the different age-classes were estimated from the cohort structure of the two populations. Laboratory experiments also investigated the ability of the common predatory isopod Saduria entomon to cause densitydependent (DD) mortality of the prey M. affinis. At site A, 43 m depth, the average density of M. affinis was twice as high as at site B, 81 m depth. The fluctuations in density were asynchronous between the two sites. Recruitment and subadult sizes of Monoporeia affinis were density dependent at both sites. The main functional difference between the two populations seemed to be the DD mortality of the 1 + cohort that occurred only at the low-density site B. A corresponding DD mortality was found in the predation experiments at densities of 1 + m. affinis corresponding to those found at site B. The potential importance of the predator was also indicated by a significant negative correlation between the biomass of S. entomon and the rate of change in M. affinis density in the field. The similarities in the abiotic factors between the two sites suggested that differences in carrying capacity should be small. The results could be explained by the predation regulation hypothesis for the low-density population at site B, while at site A M. affinis seemed to be regulated by intra-specific competition and limited by predation. It is suggested that in this simple predator-prey system there is potential for the existence of alternative equilibria.

Site-specific management of nematodes pitfalls and practicalities.

PubMed

Evans, Ken; Webster, Richard M; Halford, Paul D; Barker, Anthony D; Russell, Michael D

2002-09-01

The greatest constraint to potato production in the United Kingdom (UK) is damage by the potato cyst nematodes (PCN) Globodera pallida and G. rostochiensis. Management of PCN depends heavily on nematicides, which are costly. Of all the inputs in UK agriculture, nematicides offer the largest potential cost savings from spatially variable application, and these savings would be accompanied by environmental benefits. We mapped PCN infestations in potato fields and monitored the changes in population density and distribution that occurred when susceptible potato crops were grown. The inverse relationship between population density before planting and multiplication rate of PCN makes it difficult to devise reliable spatial nematicide application procedures, especially when the pre-planting population density is just less than the detection threshold. Also, the spatial dependence found suggests that the coarse sampling grids used commercially are likely to produce misleading distribution maps.

Size-density scaling in protists and the links between consumer-resource interaction parameters.

PubMed

DeLong, John P; Vasseur, David A

2012-11-01

Recent work indicates that the interaction between body-size-dependent demographic processes can generate macroecological patterns such as the scaling of population density with body size. In this study, we evaluate this possibility for grazing protists and also test whether demographic parameters in these models are correlated after controlling for body size. We compiled data on the body-size dependence of consumer-resource interactions and population density for heterotrophic protists grazing algae in laboratory studies. We then used nested dynamic models to predict both the height and slope of the scaling relationship between population density and body size for these protists. We also controlled for consumer size and assessed links between model parameters. Finally, we used the models and the parameter estimates to assess the individual- and population-level dependence of resource use on body-size and prey-size selection. The predicted size-density scaling for all models matched closely to the observed scaling, and the simplest model was sufficient to predict the pattern. Variation around the mean size-density scaling relationship may be generated by variation in prey productivity and area of capture, but residuals are relatively insensitive to variation in prey size selection. After controlling for body size, many consumer-resource interaction parameters were correlated, and a positive correlation between residual prey size selection and conversion efficiency neutralizes the apparent fitness advantage of taking large prey. Our results indicate that widespread community-level patterns can be explained with simple population models that apply consistently across a range of sizes. They also indicate that the parameter space governing the dynamics and the steady states in these systems is structured such that some parts of the parameter space are unlikely to represent real systems. Finally, predator-prey size ratios represent a kind of conundrum, because they are widely observed but apparently have little influence on population size and fitness, at least at this level of organization. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Finite metapopulation models with density-dependent migration and stochastic local dynamics

PubMed Central

Saether, B.-E.; Engen, S.; Lande, R.

1999-01-01

The effects of small density-dependent migration on the dynamics of a metapopulation are studied in a model with stochastic local dynamics. We use a diffusion approximation to study how changes in the migration rate and habitat occupancy affect the rates of local colonization and extinction. If the emigration rate increases or if the immigration rate decreases with local population size, a positive expected rate of change in habitat occupancy is found for a greater range of habitat occupancies than when the migration is density-independent. In contrast, the reverse patterns of density dependence in respective emigration and immigration reduce the range of habitat occupancies where the metapopulation will be viable. This occurs because density-dependent migration strongly influences both the establishment and rescue effects in the local dynamics of metapopulations.

Passive Baited Sequential Fly Trap

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Sampling fly populations associated with human populations is needed to understand diel behavior and to monitor population densities before and after control operations. Population control measures are dependent on the results of monitoring efforts as they may provide insight into the fly behavior ...

Spatial heterogeneity in the carrying capacity of sika deer in Japan.

PubMed

Iijima, Hayato; Ueno, Mayumi

2016-06-09

Carrying capacity is 1 driver of wildlife population dynamics. Although in previous studies carrying capacity was considered to be a fixed entity, it may differ among locations due to environmental variation. The factors underlying variability in carrying capacity, however, have rarely been examined. Here, we investigated spatial heterogeneity in the carrying capacity of Japanese sika deer ( Cervus nippon ) from 2005 to 2014 in Yamanashi Prefecture, central Japan (mesh with grid cells of 5.5×4.6 km) by state-space modeling. Both carrying capacity and density dependence differed greatly among cells. Estimated carrying capacities ranged from 1.34 to 98.4 deer/km 2 . According to estimated population dynamics, grid cells with larger proportions of artificial grassland and deciduous forest were subject to lower density dependence and higher carrying capacity. We conclude that population dynamics of ungulates may vary spatially through spatial variation in carrying capacity and that the density level for controlling ungulate abundance should be based on the current density level relative to the carrying capacity for each area.

The ability of individuals to assess population density influences the evolution of emigration propensity and dispersal distance.

PubMed

Poethke, Hans Joachim; Gros, Andreas; Hovestadt, Thomas

2011-08-07

We analyze the simultaneous evolution of emigration and settlement decisions for actively dispersing species differing in their ability to assess population density. Using an individual-based model we simulate dispersal as a multi-step (patch to patch) movement in a world consisting of habitat patches surrounded by a hostile matrix. Each such step is associated with the same mortality risk. Our simulations show that individuals following an informed strategy, where emigration (and settlement) probability depends on local population density, evolve a lower (natal) emigration propensity but disperse over significantly larger distances - i.e. postpone settlement longer - than individuals performing density-independent emigration. This holds especially when variation in environmental conditions is spatially correlated. Both effects can be traced to the informed individuals' ability to better exploit existing heterogeneity in reproductive chances. Yet, already moderate distance-dependent dispersal costs prevent the evolution of multi-step (long-distance) dispersal, irrespective of the dispersal strategy. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Phenology and density-dependent dispersal predict patterns of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) impact

Treesearch

James A. Powell; Barbara J. Bentz

2014-01-01

For species with irruptive population behavior, dispersal is an important component of outbreak dynamics. We developed and parameterized a mechanistic model describing mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) population demographics and dispersal across a landscape. Model components include temperature-dependent phenology, host tree colonization...

When can a single-species, density-dependent model capture the dynamics of a consumer-resource system?

PubMed

Reynolds, Sara A; Brassil, Chad E

2013-12-21

Single-species population models often include density-dependence phenomenologically in order to approximate higher order mechanisms. Here we consider the common scenario in which density-dependence acts via depletion of a renewed resource. When the response of the resource is very quick relative to that of the consumer, the consumer dynamics can be captured by a single-species, density-dependent model. Time scale separation is used to show analytically how the shape of the density-dependent relationship depends on the type of resource and the form of the functional response. Resource types of abiotic, biotic, and biotic with migration are considered, in combination with linear and saturating functional responses. In some cases, we derive familiar forms of single-species models, adding to the justification for their use. In other scenarios novel forms of density-dependence are derived, for example an abiotic resource and a saturating functional response can result in a nonlinear density-dependent relationship in the associated single-species model of the consumer. In this case, the per capita relationship has both concave-up and concave-down sections. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parasitism and a shortage of refuges jointly mediate the strength of density dependence in a reef fish.

PubMed

Forrester, Graham E; Finley, Rachel J

2006-05-01

Various predator-prey, host-pathogen, and competitive interactions can combine to cause density dependence in population growth. Despite this possibility, most empirical tests for density-dependent interactions have focused on single mechanisms. Here we tested the hypothesis that two mechanisms of density dependence, parasitism and a shortage of refuges, jointly influence the strength of density-dependent mortality. We used mark-recapture analysis to estimate mortality of the host species, the bridled goby (Coryphopterus glaucofraenum). Sixty-three marked gobies were infected with a copepod gill parasite (Pharodes tortugensis), and 188 were uninfected. We used the spatial scale at which gobies were clustered naturally (approximately 4 m2) as an ecologically relevant neighborhood and measured goby density and the availability of refuges from predators within each goby's neighborhood. Goby survival generally declined with increasing density, and this decline was steeper for gobies with access to few refuges than for gobies in neighborhoods where refuges were common. The negative effects of high density and refuge shortage were also more severe for parasitized gobies than for gobies free of parasites. This parasite has characteristics typical of emerging diseases and appears to have altered the strength of a preexisting density-dependent interaction.

Population density and mortality among individuals in motor vehicle crashes.

PubMed

Gedeborg, Rolf; Thiblin, Ingemar; Byberg, Liisa; Melhus, Håkan; Lindbäck, Johan; Michaelsson, Karl

2010-10-01

To assess whether higher mortality rates among individuals in motor vehicle crashes in areas with low population density depend on injury type and severity or are related to the performance of emergency medical services (EMS). Prehospital and hospital deaths were studied in a population-based cohort of 41,243 motor vehicle crashes that occurred in Sweden between 1998 and 2004. The final multivariable analysis was restricted to 6884 individuals in motor vehicle crashes, to minimise the effects of confounding factors. Crude mortality rates following motor vehicle crashes were inversely related to regional population density. In regions with low population density, the unadjusted rate ratio for prehospital death was 2.2 (95% CI 1.9 to 2.5) and for hospital death 1.5 (95% CI 1.1 to 1.9), compared with a high-density population. However, after controlling for regional differences in age, gender and the type/severity of injuries among 6884 individuals in motor vehicle crashes, low population density was no longer associated with increased mortality. At 25 years of age, predicted prehospital mortality was 9% lower (95% CI 5% to 12%) in regions with low population density compared with high population density. This difference decreased with increasing age, but was still 3% lower (95% CI 0.5% to 5%) at 65 years of age. The inverse relationship between population density and mortality among individuals in motor vehicle crashes is related to pre-crash factors that influence the type and severity of injuries and not to differences in EMS.

The impact of resource limitation and the phenology of parasitoid attack on the duration of insect herbivore outbreaks.

PubMed

Umbanhowar, James; Hastings, Alan

2002-11-01

Fluctuations in resource quality and quantity, and changes in mortality due to predators and parasites are thought to be of prime importance in the regular fluctuations of forest insects. We examine how food limitation and parasitoids with different phenologies of attack regulate the population cycles of insect hosts. Our analysis of the limit cycle of a model with a biologically realistic form of density dependence in the host yields two novel predictions. First, outbreaks will typically last for only 2 generations after parasitoids begin to reduce the host population below the maximum density. Second, host growth rate is important in determining cycle length only when parasitoids attack before the impacts of resource limitation affect the host. The robustness of these predictions are tested using a more general form of density dependence in the host, revealing that our predictions are valid as long as density dependence in the host is not too overcompensatory.

Anticipatory flexibility: larval population density in moths determines male investment in antennae, wings and testes.

PubMed

Johnson, Tamara L; Symonds, Matthew R E; Elgar, Mark A

2017-11-15

Developmental plasticity provides individuals with a distinct advantage when the reproductive environment changes dramatically. Variation in population density, in particular, can have profound effects on male reproductive success. Females may be easier to locate in dense populations, but there may be a greater risk of sperm competition. Thus, males should invest in traits that enhance fertilization success over traits that enhance mate location. Conversely, males in less dense populations should invest more in structures that will facilitate mate location. In Lepidoptera, this may result in the development of larger antennae to increase the likelihood of detecting female sex pheromones, and larger wings to fly more efficiently. We explored the effects of larval density on adult morphology in the gum-leaf skeletonizer moth, Uraba lugens , by manipulating both the number of larvae and the size of the rearing container. This experimental arrangement allowed us to reveal the cues used by larvae to assess whether absolute number or density influences adult responses. Male investment in testes size depended on the number of individuals, while male investment in wings and antennae depended upon larval density. By contrast, the size of female antennae and wings were influenced by an interaction of larval number and container size. This study demonstrates that male larvae are sensitive to cues that may reveal adult population density, and adjust investment in traits associated with fertilization success and mate detection accordingly. © 2017 The Author(s).

Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA): galaxy environments and star formation rate variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wijesinghe, D. B.; Hopkins, A. M.; Brough, S.; Taylor, E. N.; Norberg, P.; Bauer, A.; Brown, M. J. I.; Cameron, E.; Conselice, C. J.; Croom, S.; Driver, S.; Grootes, M. W.; Jones, D. H.; Kelvin, L.; Loveday, J.; Pimbblet, K. A.; Popescu, C. C.; Prescott, M.; Sharp, R.; Baldry, I.; Sadler, E. M.; Liske, J.; Robotham, A. S. G.; Bamford, S.; Bland-Hawthorn, J.; Gunawardhana, M.; Meyer, M.; Parkinson, H.; Drinkwater, M. J.; Peacock, J.; Tuffs, R.

2012-07-01

We present a detailed investigation into the effects of galaxy environment on their star formation rates (SFRs) using galaxies observed in the Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey. We use three independent volume-limited samples of galaxies within z < 0.2 and Mr < -17.8. We investigate the known SFR-density relationship and explore in detail the dependence of SFR on stellar mass and density. We show that the SFR-density trend is only visible when we include the passive galaxy population along with the star-forming population. This SFR-density relation is absent when we consider only the star-forming population of galaxies, consistent with previous work. While there is a strong dependence of the EWHα on density we find, as in previous studies, that these trends are largely due to the passive galaxy population and this relationship is absent when considering a 'star-forming' sample of galaxies. We find that stellar mass has the strongest influence on SFR and EWHα with the environment having no significant effect on the star formation properties of the star-forming population. We also show that the SFR-density relationship is absent for both early- and late-type star-forming galaxies. We conclude that the stellar mass has the largest impact on the current SFR of a galaxy, and any environmental effect is not detectable. The observation that the trends with density are due to the changing morphology fraction with density implies that the time-scales must be very short for any quenching of the SFR in infalling galaxies. Alternatively, galaxies may in fact undergo predominantly in situ evolution where the infall and quenching of galaxies from the field into dense environments is not the dominant evolutionary mode.

Inter-class competition in stage-structured populations: effects of adult density on life-history traits of adult and juvenile common lizards.

PubMed

San-Jose, Luis M; Peñalver-Alcázar, Miguel; Huyghe, Katleen; Breedveld, Merel C; Fitze, Patrick S

2016-12-01

Ecological and evolutionary processes in natural populations are largely influenced by the population's stage-structure. Commonly, different classes have different competitive abilities, e.g., due to differences in body size, suggesting that inter-class competition may be important and largely asymmetric. However, experimental evidence states that inter-class competition, which is important, is rare and restricted to marine fish. Here, we manipulated the adult density in six semi-natural populations of the European common lizard, Zootoca vivipara, while holding juvenile density constant. Adult density affected juveniles, but not adults, in line with inter-class competition. High adult density led to lower juvenile survival and growth before hibernation. In contrast, juvenile survival after hibernation was higher in populations with high adult density, pointing to relaxed inter-class competition. As a result, annual survival was not affected by adult density, showing that differences in pre- and post-hibernation survival balanced each other out. The intensity of inter-class competition affected reproduction, performance, and body size in juveniles. Path analyses unravelled direct treatment effects on early growth (pre-hibernation) and no direct treatment effects on the parameters measured after hibernation. This points to allometry of treatment-induced differences in early growth, and it suggests that inter-class competition mainly affects the early growth of the competitively inferior class and thereby their future performance and reproduction. These results are in contrast with previous findings and, together with results in marine fish, suggest that the strength and direction of density dependence may depend on the degree of inter-class competition, and thus on the availability of resources used by the competing classes.

Ant-inspired density estimation via random walks

PubMed Central

Musco, Cameron; Su, Hsin-Hao

2017-01-01

Many ant species use distributed population density estimation in applications ranging from quorum sensing, to task allocation, to appraisal of enemy colony strength. It has been shown that ants estimate local population density by tracking encounter rates: The higher the density, the more often the ants bump into each other. We study distributed density estimation from a theoretical perspective. We prove that a group of anonymous agents randomly walking on a grid are able to estimate their density within a small multiplicative error in few steps by measuring their rates of encounter with other agents. Despite dependencies inherent in the fact that nearby agents may collide repeatedly (and, worse, cannot recognize when this happens), our bound nearly matches what would be required to estimate density by independently sampling grid locations. From a biological perspective, our work helps shed light on how ants and other social insects can obtain relatively accurate density estimates via encounter rates. From a technical perspective, our analysis provides tools for understanding complex dependencies in the collision probabilities of multiple random walks. We bound the strength of these dependencies using local mixing properties of the underlying graph. Our results extend beyond the grid to more general graphs, and we discuss applications to size estimation for social networks, density estimation for robot swarms, and random walk-based sampling for sensor networks. PMID:28928146

Results on asymptotic behaviour for discrete, two-patch metapopulations with density-dependent selection

Treesearch

James F. Selgrade; James H. Roberds

2005-01-01

A 4-dimensional system of nonlinear difference equations tracking allele frequencies and population sizes for a two-patch metapopulation model is studied. This system describes intergenerational changes brought about by density-dependent selection within patches and moderated by the effects of migration between patches. To determine conditions which result in similar...

Predation and nutrients drive population declines in breeding waders.

PubMed

Møller, Anders Pape; Thorup, Ole; Laursen, Karsten

2018-04-20

Allee effects are defined as a decline in per capita fitness at low population density. We hypothesized that predation reduces population size of breeding waders and thereby the efficiency of predator deterrence, while total nitrogen through its effects on primary and secondary productivity increases population size. Therefore, nest predation could have negative consequences for population size because nest failure generally results in breeding dispersal and hence reduced local population density. To test these predictions, we recorded nest predation in five species of waders for 4,745 nests during 1987-2015 at the nature reserve Tipperne, Denmark. Predation rates were generally negatively related to conspecific and heterospecific population density, but positively related to overall population density of the entire wader community. Nest predation and population density were related to ground water level, management (grazing and mowing), and nutrients. High nest predation with a time lag of one year resulted in low overall breeding population density, while high nutrient levels resulted in higher population density. These two factors accounted for 86% of the variance in population size, presumably due to effects of nest predation on emigration, while nutrient levels increased the level of vegetation cover and the abundance of food in the surrounding brackish water. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that predation may reduce population density through negative density dependence, while total nitrogen at adjacent shallow water may increase population size. Nest predation rates were reduced by high ground water level in March, grazing by cattle and mowing that affected access to and susceptibility of nests to predators. These effects can be managed to benefit breeding waders. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Modeling ecological traps for the control of feral pigs

PubMed Central

Dexter, Nick; McLeod, Steven R

2015-01-01

Ecological traps are habitat sinks that are preferred by dispersing animals but have higher mortality or reduced fecundity compared to source habitats. Theory suggests that if mortality rates are sufficiently high, then ecological traps can result in extinction. An ecological trap may be created when pest animals are controlled in one area, but not in another area of equal habitat quality, and when there is density-dependent immigration from the high-density uncontrolled area to the low-density controlled area. We used a logistic population model to explore how varying the proportion of habitat controlled, control mortality rate, and strength of density-dependent immigration for feral pigs could affect the long-term population abundance and time to extinction. Increasing control mortality, the proportion of habitat controlled and the strength of density-dependent immigration decreased abundance both within and outside the area controlled. At higher levels of these parameters, extinction was achieved for feral pigs. We extended the analysis with a more complex stochastic, interactive model of feral pig dynamics in the Australian rangelands to examine how the same variables as the logistic model affected long-term abundance in the controlled and uncontrolled area and time to extinction. Compared to the logistic model of feral pig dynamics, the stochastic interactive model predicted lower abundances and extinction at lower control mortalities and proportions of habitat controlled. To improve the realism of the stochastic interactive model, we substituted fixed mortality rates with a density-dependent control mortality function, empirically derived from helicopter shooting exercises in Australia. Compared to the stochastic interactive model with fixed mortality rates, the model with the density-dependent control mortality function did not predict as substantial decline in abundance in controlled or uncontrolled areas or extinction for any combination of variables. These models demonstrate that pest eradication is theoretically possible without the pest being controlled throughout its range because of density-dependent immigration into the area controlled. The stronger the density-dependent immigration, the better the overall control in controlled and uncontrolled habitat combined. However, the stronger the density-dependent immigration, the poorer the control in the area controlled. For feral pigs, incorporating environmental stochasticity improves the prospects for eradication, but adding a realistic density-dependent control function eliminates these prospects. PMID:26045954

The puzzle of partial migration: Adaptive dynamics and evolutionary game theory perspectives.

PubMed

De Leenheer, Patrick; Mohapatra, Anushaya; Ohms, Haley A; Lytle, David A; Cushing, J M

2017-01-07

We consider the phenomenon of partial migration which is exhibited by populations in which some individuals migrate between habitats during their lifetime, but others do not. First, using an adaptive dynamics approach, we show that partial migration can be explained on the basis of negative density dependence in the per capita fertilities alone, provided that this density dependence is attenuated for increasing abundances of the subtypes that make up the population. We present an exact formula for the optimal proportion of migrants which is expressed in terms of the vital rates of migrant and non-migrant subtypes only. We show that this allocation strategy is both an evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) as well as a convergence stable strategy (CSS). To establish the former, we generalize the classical notion of an ESS because it is based on invasion exponents obtained from linearization arguments, which fail to capture the stabilizing effects of the nonlinear density dependence. These results clarify precisely when the notion of a "weak ESS", as proposed in Lundberg (2013) for a related model, is a genuine ESS. Secondly, we use an evolutionary game theory approach, and confirm, once again, that partial migration can be attributed to negative density dependence alone. In this context, the result holds even when density dependence is not attenuated. In this case, the optimal allocation strategy towards migrants is the same as the ESS stemming from the analysis based on the adaptive dynamics. The key feature of the population models considered here is that they are monotone dynamical systems, which enables a rather comprehensive mathematical analysis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Spatial distribution pattern of Chilo suppressalis analyzed by classical method and geostatistics].

PubMed

Yuan, Zheming; Fu, Wei; Li, Fangyi

2004-04-01

Two original samples of Chilo suppressalis and their grid, random and sequence samples were analyzed by classical method and geostatistics to characterize the spatial distribution pattern of C. suppressalis. The limitations of spatial distribution analysis with classical method, especially influenced by the original position of grid, were summarized rather completely. On the contrary, geostatistics characterized well the spatial distribution pattern, congregation intensity and spatial heterogeneity of C. suppressalis. According to geostatistics, the population was up to Poisson distribution in low density. As for higher density population, its distribution was up to aggregative, and the aggregation intensity and dependence range were 0.1056 and 193 cm, respectively. Spatial heterogeneity was also found in the higher density population. Its spatial correlativity in line direction was more closely than that in row direction, and the dependence ranges in line and row direction were 115 and 264 cm, respectively.

Estimating Allee dynamics before they can be observed: polar bears as a case study.

PubMed

Molnár, Péter K; Lewis, Mark A; Derocher, Andrew E

2014-01-01

Allee effects are an important component in the population dynamics of numerous species. Accounting for these Allee effects in population viability analyses generally requires estimates of low-density population growth rates, but such data are unavailable for most species and particularly difficult to obtain for large mammals. Here, we present a mechanistic modeling framework that allows estimating the expected low-density growth rates under a mate-finding Allee effect before the Allee effect occurs or can be observed. The approach relies on representing the mechanisms causing the Allee effect in a process-based model, which can be parameterized and validated from data on the mechanisms rather than data on population growth. We illustrate the approach using polar bears (Ursus maritimus), and estimate their expected low-density growth by linking a mating dynamics model to a matrix projection model. The Allee threshold, defined as the population density below which growth becomes negative, is shown to depend on age-structure, sex ratio, and the life history parameters determining reproduction and survival. The Allee threshold is thus both density- and frequency-dependent. Sensitivity analyses of the Allee threshold show that different combinations of the parameters determining reproduction and survival can lead to differing Allee thresholds, even if these differing combinations imply the same stable-stage population growth rate. The approach further shows how mate-limitation can induce long transient dynamics, even in populations that eventually grow to carrying capacity. Applying the models to the overharvested low-density polar bear population of Viscount Melville Sound, Canada, shows that a mate-finding Allee effect is a plausible mechanism for slow recovery of this population. Our approach is generalizable to any mating system and life cycle, and could aid proactive management and conservation strategies, for example, by providing a priori estimates of minimum conservation targets for rare species or minimum eradication targets for pests and invasive species.

Estimating Allee Dynamics before They Can Be Observed: Polar Bears as a Case Study

PubMed Central

Molnár, Péter K.; Lewis, Mark A.; Derocher, Andrew E.

2014-01-01

Allee effects are an important component in the population dynamics of numerous species. Accounting for these Allee effects in population viability analyses generally requires estimates of low-density population growth rates, but such data are unavailable for most species and particularly difficult to obtain for large mammals. Here, we present a mechanistic modeling framework that allows estimating the expected low-density growth rates under a mate-finding Allee effect before the Allee effect occurs or can be observed. The approach relies on representing the mechanisms causing the Allee effect in a process-based model, which can be parameterized and validated from data on the mechanisms rather than data on population growth. We illustrate the approach using polar bears (Ursus maritimus), and estimate their expected low-density growth by linking a mating dynamics model to a matrix projection model. The Allee threshold, defined as the population density below which growth becomes negative, is shown to depend on age-structure, sex ratio, and the life history parameters determining reproduction and survival. The Allee threshold is thus both density- and frequency-dependent. Sensitivity analyses of the Allee threshold show that different combinations of the parameters determining reproduction and survival can lead to differing Allee thresholds, even if these differing combinations imply the same stable-stage population growth rate. The approach further shows how mate-limitation can induce long transient dynamics, even in populations that eventually grow to carrying capacity. Applying the models to the overharvested low-density polar bear population of Viscount Melville Sound, Canada, shows that a mate-finding Allee effect is a plausible mechanism for slow recovery of this population. Our approach is generalizable to any mating system and life cycle, and could aid proactive management and conservation strategies, for example, by providing a priori estimates of minimum conservation targets for rare species or minimum eradication targets for pests and invasive species. PMID:24427306

Density-dependent recruitment of the bloater (Coregonus hoyi) in Lake Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Edward H.; Eck, Gary W.

1992-01-01

Density-dependent recruitment of the bloater (Coregonus hoyi) in Lake Michigan during and after recovery of the population in about 1977-1983 was best reflected in the fit of the Beverton-Holt recruitment function to age -1 and -2 recruits and estimated eggs of parents surveyed with trawls. A lower growth rate and lower lipid content of bloaters at higher population densities and no evidence of cannibalism supported the conclusion that recruitment is resource limited when alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) abundance is low. Predation on larvae by alewives was indicated in earlier studies as the probable cause of depressed recruitment of bloaters before their recovery, which coincided with declining alewife abundance. This negative interaction masked any bloater stock-recruitment relation in the earlier period.

Outside and inside noise exposure in urban and suburban areas

Treesearch

Dwight E. Bishop; Myles A. Simpson

1977-01-01

In urban and suburban areas of the United States (away from major airports), the outdoor noise environment usually depends strongly on local vehicular traffic. By relating traffic flow to population density, a model of outdoor noise exposure has been developed for estimating the cumulative 24-hour noise exposure based upon the population density of the area. This noise...

Life-History and Spatial Determinants of Somatic Growth Dynamics in Komodo Dragon Populations

PubMed Central

Laver, Rebecca J.; Purwandana, Deni; Ariefiandy, Achmad; Imansyah, Jeri; Forsyth, David; Ciofi, Claudio; Jessop, Tim S.

2012-01-01

Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world’s largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species. PMID:23028983

The Role Of Environment In Stellar Mass Growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Daniel

2017-06-01

In this talk I give a brief summary of methods to measure galaxy environment. I then discuss the dependence of stellar population properties on environmental density: it turns out that the latter are driven by galaxy mass, and galaxy environment only plays a secondary role, mostly at late times in low-mass galaxies. I show that this evidence has now been extended to stellar population gradients using the IFU survey SDSS/MaNGA that again turn out to be independent of environment, including central-satellite classification. Finally I present results from the DES, where the dependence of the stellar mass function with redshift and environmental density is explored. It is found that the fraction of massive galaxies is larger in high density environments than in low density environments. The low density and high density components converge with increasing redshift up to z 1.0 where the shapes of the mass function components are indistinguishable. This study shows how high density structures build up around massive galaxies through cosmic time, which sets new valuable constraints on galaxy formation models.

A BASIC Program for Use in Teaching Population Dynamics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kidd, N. A. C.

1984-01-01

Describes an interactive simulation model which can be used to demonstrate population growth with discrete or overlapping populations and the effects of random, constant, or density-dependent mortality. The program listing (for Commodore PET 4032 microcomputer) is included. (Author/DH)

Dynamical Analysis of Density-dependent Selection in a Discrete one-island Migration Model

Treesearch

James H. Roberds; James F. Selgrade

2000-01-01

A system of non-linear difference equations is used to model the effects of density-dependent selection and migration in a population characterized by two alleles at a single gene locus. Results for the existence and stability of polymorphic equilibria are established. Properties for a genetically important class of equilibria associated with complete dominance in...

Generalized fish life-cycle poplulation model and computer program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeAngelis, D. L.; Van Winkle, W.; Christensen, S. W.

1978-03-01

A generalized fish life-cycle population model and computer program have been prepared to evaluate the long-term effect of changes in mortality in age class 0. The general question concerns what happens to a fishery when density-independent sources of mortality are introduced that act on age class 0, particularly entrainment and impingement at power plants. This paper discusses the model formulation and computer program, including sample results. The population model consists of a system of difference equations involving age-dependent fecundity and survival. The fecundity for each age class is assumed to be a function of both the fraction of females sexuallymore » mature and the weight of females as they enter each age class. Natural mortality for age classes 1 and older is assumed to be independent of population size. Fishing mortality is assumed to vary with the number and weight of fish available to the fishery. Age class 0 is divided into six life stages. The probability of survival for age class 0 is estimated considering both density-independent mortality (natural and power plant) and density-dependent mortality for each life stage. Two types of density-dependent mortality are included. These are cannibalism of each life stage by older age classes and intra-life-stage competition.« less

Local habitat conditions explain the variation in the strength of self-thinning in a stream salmonid

PubMed Central

Myrvold, Knut Marius; Kennedy, Brian P

2015-01-01

Self-thinning patterns are frequently used to describe density dependence in populations on timescales shorter than the organism's life span and have been used to infer carrying capacity of the environment. Among mobile animals, this concept has been used to document density dependence in stream salmonids, which compete over access to food and space. The carrying capacity, growth conditions, and initial cohort sizes often vary between streams and stream sections, which would influence the onset and strength of the density dependence. Despite much effort in describing habitat relationships in stream fishes, few studies have explicitly tested how the physical environment affects the slope of the thinning curves. Here, we investigate the prevalence and strength of self-thinning in juvenile stages of a steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) population in Idaho, USA. Further, we investigate the roles of local physical habitat and metabolic constraints in explaining the variation in thinning curves among study sites in the watershed. Only yearling steelhead exhibited an overall significant thinning trend, but the slope of the mass–density relationship (−0.53) was shallower than predicted by theory and reported from empirical studies. There was no detectable relationship in subyearling steelhead. Certain abiotic factors explained a relatively large portion of the variation in the strength of the self-thinning among the study reaches. For subyearling steelhead, the slopes were negatively associated with the average water depth and flow velocity in the study sites, whereas slopes in yearlings were steeper in sites that incurred a higher metabolic cost. Our results show that the prevalence and strength of density dependence in natural fish populations can vary across heterogeneous watersheds and can be more pronounced during certain stages of a species' life history, and that environmental factors can mediate the extent to which density dependence is manifested in predictable ways. PMID:26380659

The interplay between seasonality and density: consequences for female breeding decisions in a small cyclic herbivore

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Cyclic rodent population dynamics are subjected to both intrinsic regulatory processes such as density-dependence and extrinsic environmental forcing. Among extrinsic factors, seasonal environmental variation is understood to facilitate cycles. In rodents, these processes have been studied mostly independently and their relative importance for population dynamics is poorly known. Results We performed a detailed analysis of common vole (Microtus arvalis) reproduction in a cyclic population using a spatially extensive data set over 17 years in central-western France. Environmental seasonality was the main source of explained variation in common vole reproduction. Additionally, inter-annual variation in the environment explained a smaller part of the variance in reproduction in spring and summer than in winter, whereas the effect of density was only found in autumn and winter. In particular, we detected a strong impact of plant productivity on fecundity during the breeding season, with low vegetation productivity being able to bring vole reproduction nearly to a halt. In contrast, vole reproduction during autumn and winter was mainly shaped by intrinsic factors, with only the longer and heavier females being able to reproduce. The effect of population density on reproduction was negative, mediated by direct negative effects on the proportion of breeders in autumn and winter during outbreak years and by a delayed negative effect on litter size the following year. Conclusions During the main breeding season, variability of female vole reproduction is predominantly shaped by food resources, suggesting that only highly productive environment may induce vole outbreaks. During fall and winter, variability of female vole reproduction is mainly controlled by intrinsic factors, with high population density suppressing reproduction. This suggests, in this cyclic population, that negative direct density dependence on reproduction could explain winter declines after outbreaks. PMID:24886481

The interplay between seasonality and density: consequences for female breeding decisions in a small cyclic herbivore.

PubMed

Pinot, Adrien; Gauffre, Bertrand; Bretagnolle, Vincent

2014-05-28

Cyclic rodent population dynamics are subjected to both intrinsic regulatory processes such as density-dependence and extrinsic environmental forcing. Among extrinsic factors, seasonal environmental variation is understood to facilitate cycles. In rodents, these processes have been studied mostly independently and their relative importance for population dynamics is poorly known. We performed a detailed analysis of common vole (Microtus arvalis) reproduction in a cyclic population using a spatially extensive data set over 17 years in central-western France. Environmental seasonality was the main source of explained variation in common vole reproduction. Additionally, inter-annual variation in the environment explained a smaller part of the variance in reproduction in spring and summer than in winter, whereas the effect of density was only found in autumn and winter. In particular, we detected a strong impact of plant productivity on fecundity during the breeding season, with low vegetation productivity being able to bring vole reproduction nearly to a halt. In contrast, vole reproduction during autumn and winter was mainly shaped by intrinsic factors, with only the longer and heavier females being able to reproduce. The effect of population density on reproduction was negative, mediated by direct negative effects on the proportion of breeders in autumn and winter during outbreak years and by a delayed negative effect on litter size the following year. During the main breeding season, variability of female vole reproduction is predominantly shaped by food resources, suggesting that only highly productive environment may induce vole outbreaks. During fall and winter, variability of female vole reproduction is mainly controlled by intrinsic factors, with high population density suppressing reproduction. This suggests, in this cyclic population, that negative direct density dependence on reproduction could explain winter declines after outbreaks.

Population ecology of the mallard: II. Breeding habitat conditions, size of the breeding populations, and production indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pospahala, Richard S.; Anderson, David R.; Henny, Charles J.

1974-01-01

This report, the second in a series on a comprehensive analysis of mallard population data, provides information on mallard breeding habitat, the size and distribution of breeding populations, and indices to production. The information in this report is primarily the result of large-scale aerial surveys conducted during May and July, 1955-73. The history of the conflict in resource utilization between agriculturalists and wildlife conservation interests in the primary waterfowl breeding grounds is reviewed. The numbers of ponds present during the breeding season and the midsummer period and the effects of precipitation and temperature on the number of ponds present are analyzed in detail. No significant cycles in precipitation were detected and it appears that precipitation is primarily influenced by substantial seasonal and random components. Annual estimates (1955-73) of the number of mallards in surveyed and unsurveyed breeding areas provided estimates of the size and geographic distribution of breeding mallards in North America. The estimated size of the mallard breeding population in North America has ranged from a high of 14.4 million in 1958 to a low of 7.1 million in 1965. Generally, the mallard breeding population began to decline after the 1958 peak until 1962, and remained below 10 million birds until 1970. The decline and subsequent low level of the mallard population between 1959 and 1969 .generally coincided with a period of poor habitat conditions on the major breeding grounds. The density of mallards was highest in the Prairie-Parkland Area with an average of nearly 19.2 birds per square mile. The proportion of the continental mallard breeding population in the Prairie-Parkland Area ranged from 30% in 1962 to a high of 600/0 in 1956. The geographic distribution of breeding mallards throughout North America was significantly related to the number of May ponds in the Prairie-Parkland Area. Estimates of midsummer habitat conditions and indices to production from the July Production Survey were studied in detail. Several indices relating to production showed marked declines from west to east in the Prairie-Parkland Area, these are: (1) density of breeding mallards (per square mile and per May pond), (2) brood density (per square mile and per July pond), (3) average brood size (all species combined), and (4) brood survival from class II to class III. An index to late nesting and renesting efforts was highest during years when midsummer water conditions were good. Production rates of many ducks breeding in North America appear to be regulated by both density-dependent and density-independent factors. Spacing of birds in the Prairie-Parkland Area appeared to be a key factor in the density-dependent regulation of the population. The spacing mechanism, in conjunction with habitat conditions, influenced some birds to overfly the primary breeding grounds into less favorable habitats to the north and northwest where the production rate may be suppressed. The production rate of waterfowl in the Prairie Parkland Area seems to be independent of density (after emigration has taken place) because the production index appears to be a linear function of the number of breeding birds in the area. Similarly, the production rate of waterfowl in northern Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba appeared to be independent of density. Production indices in these northern areas appear to be a linear function of the size of the breeding population. Thus, the density and distribution of breeding ducks is probably regulated through a spacing mechanism that is at least partially dependent on measurable environmental factors. The result is a density-dependent process operating to ultimately effect the production and production rate of breeding ducks on a continent-wide basis. Continental production, and therefore the size of the fall population, is probably partially regulated by the number of birds that are distributed north and northwest into environments less favorable for successful reproduction. Thus, spacing of the birds in the Prairie-Parkland Area and the movement of a fraction of the birds out of the prime breeding areas may be key factors in the density-dependent regulation of the total mallard population.

Predicting fluctuations-caused regime shifts in a time delayed dynamics of an invading species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Qingshuang; Wang, Tonghuan; Zeng, Chunhua; Dong, Xiaohui; Guan, Lin

2018-03-01

In this paper, we investigate early warning signals (EWS) of regime shifts in a density-dependent invading population model with time delay, in which the population density is assumed to be disturbed by intrinsic and extrinsic fluctuations. It is shown that the time delay and noises can cause the regime shifts between low and high population density states. The regime shift time (RST) as a function of noise intensity exhibits a maximum, which identifies the signature of the noise-enhanced stability of the low density state, while the time delay weakens the stability of the low density state. Applying the Kramers time technique, we also discuss the intersection point of the RST between low and high population density states, i.e., a critical point in the RST is found. Therefore, the critical point may give an EWS of regime shifts from one alternative state to another one for the changes in the noise parameters and time delay.

Assessment of Population Status for a White Sucker (Catostomus commersoni) Population Exposed to Bleached Kraft Pulp Mill Effluent

EPA Science Inventory

A predictive model was developed to translate changes in the fecundity and the age structure of a breeding population of white sucker (Catostomus commersoni) collected in the field to alterations in population growth rate. Application of this density dependent population ...

Fishing for lobsters indirectly increases epidemics in sea urchins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lafferty, Kevin D.

2004-01-01

Two ecological paradigms, the trophic cascade and the host-density threshold in disease, interact in the kelp-forest ecosystem to structure the community. To investigate what happens when a trophic cascade pushes a host population over a host-threshold density, I analyzed a 20-year data set of kelp forest communities at 16 sites in the region of the Channel Islands National Park, California, USA. Historically, lobsters, and perhaps other predators, kept urchin populations at low levels and kelp forests developed a community-level trophic cascade. In geographic areas where the main predators on urchins were fished, urchin populations increased to the extent that they overgrazed algae and starvation eventually limited urchin-population growth. Despite the limitation of urchin population size by food availability, urchin densities, at times, well exceeded the host-density threshold for epidemics. An urchin-specific bacterial disease entered the region after 1992 and acted as a density-dependent mortality source. Dense populations were more likely to experience epidemics and suffer higher mortality. Disease did not reduce the urchin population at a site to the density that predators previously did. Therefore, disease did not fully replace predators in the trophic cascade. These results indicate how fishing top predators can indirectly favor disease transmission in prey populations.

One-dimensional time-dependent fluid model of a very high density low-pressure inductively coupled plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaplin, Vernon H.; Bellan, Paul M.

2015-12-01

A time-dependent two-fluid model has been developed to understand axial variations in the plasma parameters in a very high density (peak ne≳ 5 ×1019 m-3 ) argon inductively coupled discharge in a long 1.1 cm radius tube. The model equations are written in 1D with radial losses to the tube walls accounted for by the inclusion of effective particle and energy sink terms. The ambipolar diffusion equation and electron energy equation are solved to find the electron density ne(z ,t ) and temperature Te(z ,t ) , and the populations of the neutral argon 4s metastable, 4s resonant, and 4p excited state manifolds are calculated to determine the stepwise ionization rate and calculate radiative energy losses. The model has been validated through comparisons with Langmuir probe ion saturation current measurements; close agreement between the simulated and measured axial plasma density profiles and the initial density rise rate at each location was obtained at pA r=30 -60 mTorr . We present detailed results from calculations at 60 mTorr, including the time-dependent electron temperature, excited state populations, and energy budget within and downstream of the radiofrequency antenna.

Spatial heterogeneity in the carrying capacity of sika deer in Japan

PubMed Central

Iijima, Hayato; Ueno, Mayumi

2016-01-01

Abstract Carrying capacity is 1 driver of wildlife population dynamics. Although in previous studies carrying capacity was considered to be a fixed entity, it may differ among locations due to environmental variation. The factors underlying variability in carrying capacity, however, have rarely been examined. Here, we investigated spatial heterogeneity in the carrying capacity of Japanese sika deer ( Cervus nippon ) from 2005 to 2014 in Yamanashi Prefecture, central Japan (mesh with grid cells of 5.5×4.6 km) by state-space modeling. Both carrying capacity and density dependence differed greatly among cells. Estimated carrying capacities ranged from 1.34 to 98.4 deer/km 2 . According to estimated population dynamics, grid cells with larger proportions of artificial grassland and deciduous forest were subject to lower density dependence and higher carrying capacity. We conclude that population dynamics of ungulates may vary spatially through spatial variation in carrying capacity and that the density level for controlling ungulate abundance should be based on the current density level relative to the carrying capacity for each area. PMID:29692470

Can intense predation by bears exert a depensatory effect on recruitment in a Pacific salmon population?

PubMed

Quinn, Thomas P; Cunningham, Curry J; Randall, Jessica; Hilborn, Ray

2014-10-01

It has long been recognized that, as populations increase in density, ecological processes affecting growth and survival reduce per capita recruitment in the next generation. In contrast to the evidence for such "compensatory" density dependence, the alternative "depensatory" process (reduced per capita recruitment at low density) has proven more difficult to demonstrate in the field. To test for such depensation, we measured the spawner-recruit relationship over five decades for a sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) population in Alaska breeding in high-quality, unaltered habitat. Twenty-five years of detailed estimates of predation by brown bears, Ursus arctos, revealed strong density dependence in predation rate; the bears killed ca. 80% of the salmon in years of low salmon spawning abundance. Nevertheless, the reconstructed spawner-recruit relationship, adjusted to include salmon intercepted in the commercial fishery, provided no evidence of demographic depensation. That is, in years when few salmon returned and the great majority were killed by bears, the few that spawned were successful enough that the population remained highly productive, even when those killed by bears were included as potential spawners. We conclude that the high quality of breeding habitat at this site and the productive nature of semelparous Pacific salmon allowed this population to avoid the hypothesized depressed recruitment from depensatory processes expected at low density. The observed lack of demographic depensation is encouraging from a conservation standpoint because it implies that depleted populations may have the potential to rebound successfully given suitable spawning and rearing habitat, even in the presence of strong predation pressure.

Evidence-based control of canine rabies: a critical review of population density reduction

PubMed Central

Morters, Michelle K; Restif, Olivier; Hampson, Katie; Cleaveland, Sarah; Wood, James L N; Conlan, Andrew J K

2013-01-01

Control measures for canine rabies include vaccination and reducing population density through culling or sterilization. Despite the evidence that culling fails to control canine rabies, efforts to reduce canine population density continue in many parts of the world. The rationale for reducing population density is that rabies transmission is density-dependent, with disease incidence increasing directly with host density. This may be based, in part, on an incomplete interpretation of historical field data for wildlife, with important implications for disease control in dog populations. Here, we examine historical and more recent field data, in the context of host ecology and epidemic theory, to understand better the role of density in rabies transmission and the reasons why culling fails to control rabies. We conclude that the relationship between host density, disease incidence and other factors is complex and may differ between species. This highlights the difficulties of interpreting field data and the constraints of extrapolations between species, particularly in terms of control policies. We also propose that the complex interactions between dogs and people may render culling of free-roaming dogs ineffective irrespective of the relationship between host density and disease incidence. We conclude that vaccination is the most effective means to control rabies in all species. PMID:23004351

Strong contribution of immigration to local population regulation: evidence from a migratory passerine.

PubMed

Schaub, Michael; Jakober, Hans; Stauber, Wolfgang

2013-08-01

A mechanistic understanding of the dynamics of populations requires knowledge about the variation of the underlying demographic rates and about the reasons for their variability. In geographically open populations, immigration is often necessary to prevent declines, but little is known about whether immigration can contribute to its regulation. We studied the dynamics of a Red-backed Shrike population (Lanius collurio) over 36 years in Germany with a Bayesian integrated population model. We estimated mean and temporal variability of population sizes, productivity, apparent survival, and immigration. We assessed how strongly the demographic rates were correlated with population growth to understand the demographic reasons of population change and how strongly the demographic rates were correlated with population size to identify possible density-dependent mechanisms. The shrike population varied between 35 and 74 breeding pairs but did not show a significant trend in population size over time (growth rate 1.002 +/- 0.001 [mean +/- SD]). Apparent survival of females (juveniles 0.06 +/- 0.01; adults 0.37 +/- 0.03) was lower than that of males (juveniles 0.10 +/- 0.01; adults 0.44 +/- 0.02). Immigration rates were substantial and higher in females (0.56 +/- 0.02) than in males (0.43 +/- 0.02), and average productivity was 2.76 +/- 0.14. Without immigration, the Red-backed Shrike population would have declined strongly. Immigration was the strongest driver for the number of females while local recruitment was the most important driver for the number of males. Immigration of both sexes and productivity, but not local recruitment and survival, were subject to density dependence. Density-dependent productivity was not effectively regulating the local population but may have contributed to regulate shrike populations at larger spatial scales. These findings suggest that immigration is not only an important component to prevent a geographically open population from decline, but that it can also contribute to its regulation.

Density-dependent productivity in a colonial vulture at two spatial scales.

PubMed

Fernández-Bellon, Darío; Cortés-Avizanda, Ainara; Arenas, Rafael; Donázar, José Antonio

2016-02-01

Understanding how density dependence modifies demographic parameters in long-lived vertebrates is a challenge for ecologists. Two alternative hypotheses have been used to explain the mechanisms behind density-dependent effects on breeding output: habitat heterogeneity and individual adjustment (also known as interference competition). A number of studies have highlighted the importance of habitat heterogeneity in density dependence in territorial species, but less information exists on demographic processes in colonial species. For these, we expect density-dependent mechanisms to operate at two spatial scales: colony and breeding unit. In this study, we used long-term data from a recovering population of Cinereous Vultures (Aegypius monachus) in southern Spain. We analyzed a long-term data set with information on 2162 breeding attempts at four colonies over a nine-year period (2002-2010) to evaluate environmental and population parameters influencing breeding output. Our results suggest that breeding productivity is subject to density-dependent processes at the colony and the nest site scale and is best explained by interference competition. Factors intrinsic to each colony, as well as environmental constraints linked to physiography and human presence, also play a role in regulatory processes. We detected the existence of a trade-off between the disadvantages of nesting too close to conspecifics and the benefits of coloniality. These could be mediated by the agonistic interactions between breeding pairs and the benefits derived from social sharing of information by breeding individuals. We propose that this trade-off may play a role in defining colony structure and may hold true for other colonial breeding bird species. Our findings also have important management implications for the conservation of this threatened species.

Use of generalized population ratios to obtain Fe XV line intensities and linewidths at high electron densities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kastner, S. O.; Bhatia, A. K.

1980-01-01

A generalized method for obtaining individual level population ratios is used to obtain relative intensities of extreme ultraviolet Fe XV emission lines in the range 284-500 A, which are density dependent for electron densities in the tokamak regime or higher. Four lines in particular are found to attain quite high intensities in the high-density limit. The same calculation provides inelastic contributions to linewidths. The method connects level populations and level widths through total probabilities t(ij), related to 'taboo' probabilities of Markov chain theory. The t(ij) are here evaluated for a real atomic system, being therefore of potential interest to random-walk theorists who have been limited to idealized systems characterized by simplified transition schemes.

Use of generalized population ratios to obtain Fe XV line intensities and linewidths at high electron densities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kastner, S. O.; Bhatia, A. K.

1980-08-01

A generalized method for obtaining individual level population ratios is used to obtain relative intensities of extreme ultraviolet Fe XV emission lines in the range 284-500 A, which are density dependent for electron densities in the tokamak regime or higher. Four lines in particular are found to attain quite high intensities in the high-density limit. The same calculation provides inelastic contributions to linewidths. The method connects level populations and level widths through total probabilities t(ij), related to 'taboo' probabilities of Markov chain theory. The t(ij) are here evaluated for a real atomic system, being therefore of potential interest to random-walk theorists who have been limited to idealized systems characterized by simplified transition schemes.

Improving the Navy’s Passive Underwater Acoustic Monitoring of Marine Mammal Populations

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

passive acoustic monitoring: Correcting humpback whale call detections for site-specific and time-dependent environmental characteristics ,” JASA Exp...marine mammal species using passive acoustic monitoring, with application to obtaining density estimates of transiting humpback whale populations in...minimize the variance of the density estimates, 3) to apply the numerical modeling methods for humpback whale vocalizations to understand distortions

Population-Level Density Dependence Influences the Origin and Maintenance of Parental Care

PubMed Central

Reyes, Elijah; Thrasher, Patsy; Bonsall, Michael B.; Klug, Hope

2016-01-01

Parental care is a defining feature of animal breeding systems. We now know that both basic life-history characteristics and ecological factors influence the evolution of care. However, relatively little is known about how these factors interact to influence the origin and maintenance of care. Here, we expand upon previous work and explore the relationship between basic life-history characteristics (stage-specific rates of mortality and maturation) and the fitness benefits associated with the origin and the maintenance of parental care for two broad ecological scenarios: the scenario in which egg survival is density dependent and the case in which adult survival is density dependent. Our findings suggest that high offspring need is likely critical in driving the origin, but not the maintenance, of parental care regardless of whether density dependence acts on egg or adult survival. In general, parental care is more likely to result in greater fitness benefits when baseline adult mortality is low if 1) egg survival is density dependent or 2) adult mortality is density dependent and mutant density is relatively high. When density dependence acts on egg mortality, low rates of egg maturation and high egg densities are less likely to lead to strong fitness benefits of care. However, when density dependence acts on adult mortality, high levels of egg maturation and increasing adult densities are less likely to maintain care. Juvenile survival has relatively little, if any, effect on the origin and maintenance of egg-only care. More generally, our results suggest that the evolution of parental care will be influenced by an organism’s entire life history characteristics, the stage at which density dependence acts, and whether care is originating or being maintained. PMID:27093056

High-density marker imputation accuracy in sixteen French cattle breeds.

PubMed

Hozé, Chris; Fouilloux, Marie-Noëlle; Venot, Eric; Guillaume, François; Dassonneville, Romain; Fritz, Sébastien; Ducrocq, Vincent; Phocas, Florence; Boichard, Didier; Croiseau, Pascal

2013-09-03

Genotyping with the medium-density Bovine SNP50 BeadChip® (50K) is now standard in cattle. The high-density BovineHD BeadChip®, which contains 777,609 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), was developed in 2010. Increasing marker density increases the level of linkage disequilibrium between quantitative trait loci (QTL) and SNPs and the accuracy of QTL localization and genomic selection. However, re-genotyping all animals with the high-density chip is not economically feasible. An alternative strategy is to genotype part of the animals with the high-density chip and to impute high-density genotypes for animals already genotyped with the 50K chip. Thus, it is necessary to investigate the error rate when imputing from the 50K to the high-density chip. Five thousand one hundred and fifty three animals from 16 breeds (89 to 788 per breed) were genotyped with the high-density chip. Imputation error rates from the 50K to the high-density chip were computed for each breed with a validation set that included the 20% youngest animals. Marker genotypes were masked for animals in the validation population in order to mimic 50K genotypes. Imputation was carried out using the Beagle 3.3.0 software. Mean allele imputation error rates ranged from 0.31% to 2.41% depending on the breed. In total, 1980 SNPs had high imputation error rates in several breeds, which is probably due to genome assembly errors, and we recommend to discard these in future studies. Differences in imputation accuracy between breeds were related to the high-density-genotyped sample size and to the genetic relationship between reference and validation populations, whereas differences in effective population size and level of linkage disequilibrium showed limited effects. Accordingly, imputation accuracy was higher in breeds with large populations and in dairy breeds than in beef breeds. More than 99% of the alleles were correctly imputed if more than 300 animals were genotyped at high-density. No improvement was observed when multi-breed imputation was performed. In all breeds, imputation accuracy was higher than 97%, which indicates that imputation to the high-density chip was accurate. Imputation accuracy depends mainly on the size of the reference population and the relationship between reference and target populations.

High-density marker imputation accuracy in sixteen French cattle breeds

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Genotyping with the medium-density Bovine SNP50 BeadChip® (50K) is now standard in cattle. The high-density BovineHD BeadChip®, which contains 777 609 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), was developed in 2010. Increasing marker density increases the level of linkage disequilibrium between quantitative trait loci (QTL) and SNPs and the accuracy of QTL localization and genomic selection. However, re-genotyping all animals with the high-density chip is not economically feasible. An alternative strategy is to genotype part of the animals with the high-density chip and to impute high-density genotypes for animals already genotyped with the 50K chip. Thus, it is necessary to investigate the error rate when imputing from the 50K to the high-density chip. Methods Five thousand one hundred and fifty three animals from 16 breeds (89 to 788 per breed) were genotyped with the high-density chip. Imputation error rates from the 50K to the high-density chip were computed for each breed with a validation set that included the 20% youngest animals. Marker genotypes were masked for animals in the validation population in order to mimic 50K genotypes. Imputation was carried out using the Beagle 3.3.0 software. Results Mean allele imputation error rates ranged from 0.31% to 2.41% depending on the breed. In total, 1980 SNPs had high imputation error rates in several breeds, which is probably due to genome assembly errors, and we recommend to discard these in future studies. Differences in imputation accuracy between breeds were related to the high-density-genotyped sample size and to the genetic relationship between reference and validation populations, whereas differences in effective population size and level of linkage disequilibrium showed limited effects. Accordingly, imputation accuracy was higher in breeds with large populations and in dairy breeds than in beef breeds. More than 99% of the alleles were correctly imputed if more than 300 animals were genotyped at high-density. No improvement was observed when multi-breed imputation was performed. Conclusion In all breeds, imputation accuracy was higher than 97%, which indicates that imputation to the high-density chip was accurate. Imputation accuracy depends mainly on the size of the reference population and the relationship between reference and target populations. PMID:24004563

Developing population models with data from marked individuals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hae Yeong Ryu,; Kevin T. Shoemaker,; Eva Kneip,; Anna Pidgeon,; Patricia Heglund,; Brooke Bateman,; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Reşit Akçakaya,

2016-01-01

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful tool for biodiversity assessments, but its use has been limited because of the requirements for fully specified population models such as demographic structure, density-dependence, environmental stochasticity, and specification of uncertainties. Developing a fully specified population model from commonly available data sources – notably, mark–recapture studies – remains complicated due to lack of practical methods for estimating fecundity, true survival (as opposed to apparent survival), natural temporal variability in both survival and fecundity, density-dependence in the demographic parameters, and uncertainty in model parameters. We present a general method that estimates all the key parameters required to specify a stochastic, matrix-based population model, constructed using a long-term mark–recapture dataset. Unlike standard mark–recapture analyses, our approach provides estimates of true survival rates and fecundities, their respective natural temporal variabilities, and density-dependence functions, making it possible to construct a population model for long-term projection of population dynamics. Furthermore, our method includes a formal quantification of parameter uncertainty for global (multivariate) sensitivity analysis. We apply this approach to 9 bird species and demonstrate the feasibility of using data from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. Bias-correction factors for raw estimates of survival and fecundity derived from mark–recapture data (apparent survival and juvenile:adult ratio, respectively) were non-negligible, and corrected parameters were generally more biologically reasonable than their uncorrected counterparts. Our method allows the development of fully specified stochastic population models using a single, widely available data source, substantially reducing the barriers that have until now limited the widespread application of PVA. This method is expected to greatly enhance our understanding of the processes underlying population dynamics and our ability to analyze viability and project trends for species of conservation concern.

Faltering lemming cycles reduce productivity and population size of a migratory Arctic goose species

PubMed Central

Nolet, Bart A; Bauer, Silke; Feige, Nicole; Kokorev, Yakov I; Popov, Igor Yu; Ebbinge, Barwolt S

2013-01-01

1. The huge changes in population sizes of Arctic-nesting geese offer a great opportunity to study population limitation in migratory animals. In geese, population limitation seems to have shifted from wintering to summering grounds. There, in the Arctic, climate is rapidly changing, and this may impact reproductive performance, and perhaps population size of geese, both directly (e.g. by changes in snow melt) or indirectly (e.g. by changes in trophic interactions). 2. Dark-bellied brent geese (Branta bernicla bernicla L.) increased 20-fold since the 1950s. Its reproduction fluctuates strongly in concert with the 3-year lemming cycle. An earlier analysis, covering the growth period until 1988, did not find evidence for density dependence, but thereafter the population levelled off and even decreased. The question is whether this is caused by changes in lemming cycles, population density or other factors like carry-over effects. 3. Breeding success was derived from proportions of juveniles. We used an information-theoretical approach to investigate which environmental factors best explained the variation in breeding success over nearly 50 years (1960–2008). We subsequently combined GLM predictions of breeding success with published survival estimates to project the population trajectory since 1991 (year of maximum population size). In this way, we separated the effects of lemming abundance and population density on population development. 4. Breeding success was mainly dependent on lemming abundance, the onset of spring at the breeding grounds, and the population size of brent goose. No evidence was found for carry-over effects (i.e. effects of conditions at main spring staging site). Negative density dependence was operating at a population size above c. 200 000 individuals, but the levelling off of the population could be explained by faltering lemming cycles alone. 5. Lemmings have long been known to affect population productivity of Arctic-nesting migratory birds and, more recently, possibly population dynamics of resident bird species, but this is the first evidence for effects of lemming abundance on population size of a migratory bird species. Why lemming cycles are faltering in the last two decades is unclear, but this may be associated with changes in winter climate at Taimyr Peninsula (Siberia). PMID:23419215

Faltering lemming cycles reduce productivity and population size of a migratory Arctic goose species.

PubMed

Nolet, Bart A; Bauer, Silke; Feige, Nicole; Kokorev, Yakov I; Popov, Igor Yu; Ebbinge, Barwolt S

2013-07-01

The huge changes in population sizes of Arctic-nesting geese offer a great opportunity to study population limitation in migratory animals. In geese, population limitation seems to have shifted from wintering to summering grounds. There, in the Arctic, climate is rapidly changing, and this may impact reproductive performance, and perhaps population size of geese, both directly (e.g. by changes in snow melt) or indirectly (e.g. by changes in trophic interactions). Dark-bellied brent geese (Branta bernicla bernicla L.) increased 20-fold since the 1950s. Its reproduction fluctuates strongly in concert with the 3-year lemming cycle. An earlier analysis, covering the growth period until 1988, did not find evidence for density dependence, but thereafter the population levelled off and even decreased. The question is whether this is caused by changes in lemming cycles, population density or other factors like carry-over effects. Breeding success was derived from proportions of juveniles. We used an information-theoretical approach to investigate which environmental factors best explained the variation in breeding success over nearly 50 years (1960-2008). We subsequently combined GLM predictions of breeding success with published survival estimates to project the population trajectory since 1991 (year of maximum population size). In this way, we separated the effects of lemming abundance and population density on population development. Breeding success was mainly dependent on lemming abundance, the onset of spring at the breeding grounds, and the population size of brent goose. No evidence was found for carry-over effects (i.e. effects of conditions at main spring staging site). Negative density dependence was operating at a population size above c. 200 000 individuals, but the levelling off of the population could be explained by faltering lemming cycles alone. Lemmings have long been known to affect population productivity of Arctic-nesting migratory birds and, more recently, possibly population dynamics of resident bird species, but this is the first evidence for effects of lemming abundance on population size of a migratory bird species. Why lemming cycles are faltering in the last two decades is unclear, but this may be associated with changes in winter climate at Taimyr Peninsula (Siberia). © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Urban characteristics attributable to density-driven tie formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Wei; Ghoshal, Gourab; Krumme, Coco; Cebrian, Manuel; Pentland, Alex

2013-06-01

Motivated by empirical evidence on the interplay between geography, population density and societal interaction, we propose a generative process for the evolution of social structure in cities. Our analytical and simulation results predict both super-linear scaling of social-tie density and information contagion as a function of the population. Here we demonstrate that our model provides a robust and accurate fit for the dependency of city characteristics with city-size, ranging from individual-level dyadic interactions (number of acquaintances, volume of communication) to population level variables (contagious disease rates, patenting activity, economic productivity and crime) without the need to appeal to heterogeneity, modularity, specialization or hierarchy.

Does the galaxy-halo connection vary with environment?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dragomir, Radu; Rodríguez-Puebla, Aldo; Primack, Joel R.; Lee, Christoph T.

2018-05-01

(Sub)halo abundance matching (SHAM) assumes that one (sub) halo property, such as mass Mvir or peak circular velocity Vpeak, determines properties of the galaxy hosted in each (sub) halo such as its luminosity or stellar mass. This assumption implies that the dependence of galaxy luminosity functions (GLFs) and the galaxy stellar mass function (GSMF) on environmental density is determined by the corresponding halo density dependence. In this paper, we test this by determining from a Sloan Digital Sky Survey sample the observed dependence with environmental density of the ugriz GLFs and GSMF for all galaxies, and for central and satellite galaxies separately. We then show that the SHAM predictions are in remarkable agreement with these observations, even when the galaxy population is divided between central and satellite galaxies. However, we show that SHAM fails to reproduce the correct dependence between environmental density and g - r colour for all galaxies and central galaxies, although it better reproduces the colour dependence on environmental density of satellite galaxies.

Consistent individual differences and population plasticity in network-derived sociality: An experimental manipulation of density in a gregarious ungulate

PubMed Central

O’Brien, Paul P.; Vander Wal, Eric

2018-01-01

In many taxa, individual social traits appear to be consistent across time and context, thus meeting the criteria for animal personality. How these differences are maintained in response to changes in population density is unknown, particularly in large mammals, such as ungulates. Using a behavioral reaction norm (BRN) framework, we examined how among- and within-individual variation in social connectedness, measured using social network analyses, change as a function of population density. We studied a captive herd of elk (Cervus canadensis) separated into a group of male elk and a group of female elk. Males and females were exposed to three different density treatments and we recorded social associations between individuals with proximity-detecting radio-collars fitted to elk. We constructed social networks using dyadic association data and calculated three social network metrics reflective of social connectedness: eigenvector centrality, graph strength, and degree. Elk exhibited consistent individual differences in social connectedness across densities; however, they showed little individual variation in their response to changes in density, i.e., individuals oftentimes responded plastically, but in the same manner to changes in density. Female elk had highest connectedness at an intermediate density. In contrast, male elk increased connectedness with increasing density. Whereas this may suggest that the benefits of social connectedness outweigh the costs of increased competition at higher density for males, females appear to exhibit a threshold in social benefits (e.g. predator detection and forage information). Our study illustrates the importance of viewing social connectedness as a density-dependent trait, particularly in the context of plasticity. Moreover, we highlight the need to revisit our understanding of density dependence as a population-level phenomenon by accounting for consistent individual differences not only in social connectedness, but likely in other ecological processes (e.g., predator-prey dynamics, mate choice, disease transfer). PMID:29494640

Population density-dependent hair cortisol concentrations in rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta)

PubMed Central

Dettmer, A.M.; Novak, M.A.; Meyer, J.S.; Suomi, S.J.

2014-01-01

Summary Population density is known to influence acute measures of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis activity in a variety of species, including fish, deer, birds, and humans. However, the effects of population density on levels of chronic stress are unknown. Given the fact that exposure to chronically elevated levels of circulating glucocorticoids results in a host of health disparities in animals and humans alike, it is important to understand how population density may impact chronic stress. We assessed hair cortisol concentrations (HCCs), which are reliable indicators of chronic HPA axis activity, in rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta) to determine the influence of population density on these values. In Experiment 1, we compared HCCs of monkeys living in high-density (HD; 1 monkey/0.87m2) and low-density (LD; 1 monkey/63.37m2) environments (N=236 hair samples) and found that HD monkeys exhibited higher hair cortisol across all age categories (infant, juvenile, young adult, adult, and aged) except infancy and aged (F(5)=4.240, p=0.001), for which differences were nearly significant. HD monkeys also received more severe fight wounds than LD monkeys (χ2=26.053, p<0.001), though no effects of dominance status emerged. In Experiment 2, we examined how HCCs change with fluctuating population levels across five years in the adult LD monkeys (N=155 hair samples) and found that increased population density was significantly positively correlated with HCCs in this semi-naturalistic population (r(s)=0.975, p=0.005). These are the first findings to demonstrate that increased population density is associated with increased chronic, endogenous glucocorticoid exposure in a nonhuman primate species. We discuss the implications of these findings with respect to laboratory research, population ecology, and human epidemiology. PMID:24636502

Population density-dependent hair cortisol concentrations in rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta).

PubMed

Dettmer, A M; Novak, M A; Meyer, J S; Suomi, S J

2014-04-01

Population density is known to influence acute measures of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis activity in a variety of species, including fish, deer, birds, and humans. However, the effects of population density on levels of chronic stress are unknown. Given the fact that exposure to chronically elevated levels of circulating glucocorticoids results in a host of health disparities in animals and humans alike, it is important to understand how population density may impact chronic stress. We assessed hair cortisol concentrations (HCCs), which are reliable indicators of chronic HPA axis activity, in rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta) to determine the influence of population density on these values. In Experiment 1, we compared HCCs of monkeys living in high-density (HD; 1 monkey/0.87m(2)) and low-density (LD; 1 monkey/63.37m(2)) environments (N=236 hair samples) and found that HD monkeys exhibited higher hair cortisol across all age categories (infant, juvenile, young adult, adult, and aged) except infancy and aged (F(5)=4.240, p=0.001), for which differences were nearly significant. HD monkeys also received more severe fight wounds than LD monkeys (χ(2)=26.053, p<0.001), though no effects of dominance status emerged. In Experiment 2, we examined how HCCs change with fluctuating population levels across 5 years in the adult LD monkeys (N=155 hair samples) and found that increased population density was significantly positively correlated with HCCs in this semi-naturalistic population (r(s)=0.975, p=0.005). These are the first findings to demonstrate that increased population density is associated with increased chronic, endogenous glucocorticoid exposure in a nonhuman primate species. We discuss the implications of these findings with respect to laboratory research, population ecology, and human epidemiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

r- and K-selection in fluctuating populations is determined by the evolutionary trade-off between two fitness measures: Growth rate and lifetime reproductive success.

PubMed

Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2017-01-01

In a stable environment, evolution maximizes growth rates in populations that are not density regulated and the carrying capacity in the case of density regulation. In a fluctuating environment, evolution maximizes a function of growth rate, carrying capacity and environmental variance, tending to r-selection and K-selection under large and small environmental noise, respectively. Here we analyze a model in which birth and death rates depend on density through the same function but with independent strength of density dependence. As a special case, both functions may be linear, corresponding to logistic dynamics. It is shown that evolution maximizes a function of the deterministic growth rate r 0 and the lifetime reproductive success (LRS) R 0 , both defined at small densities, as well as the environmental variance. Under large noise this function is dominated by r 0 and average lifetimes are small, whereas R 0 dominates and lifetimes are larger under small noise. Thus, K-selection is closely linked to selection for large R 0 so that evolution tends to maximize LRS in a stable environment. Consequently, different quantities (r 0 and R 0 ) tend to be maximized at low and high densities, respectively, favoring density-dependent changes in the optimal life history. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Whitebark pine, population density, and home-range size of grizzly bears in the greater Yellowstone ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjornlie, Daniel D.; van Manen, Frank T.; Ebinger, Michael R.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Thompson, Daniel J.; Costello, Cecily M.

2014-01-01

Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size.

Whitebark Pine, Population Density, and Home-Range Size of Grizzly Bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

PubMed Central

Bjornlie, Daniel D.; Van Manen, Frank T.; Ebinger, Michael R.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Thompson, Daniel J.; Costello, Cecily M.

2014-01-01

Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size. PMID:24520354

Whitebark pine, population density, and home-range size of grizzly bears in the greater yellowstone ecosystem.

PubMed

Bjornlie, Daniel D; Van Manen, Frank T; Ebinger, Michael R; Haroldson, Mark A; Thompson, Daniel J; Costello, Cecily M

2014-01-01

Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size.

Size asymmetry in intraspecific competition and the density-dependence of inbreeding depression in a natural plant population: a case study in cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz, Euphorbiaceae).

PubMed

Pujol, B; McKey, D

2006-01-01

The effects of competition on the genetic composition of natural populations are not well understood. We combined demography and molecular genetics to study how intraspecific competition affects microevolution in cohorts of volunteer plants of cassava (Manihot esculenta) originating from seeds in slash-and-burn fields of Palikur Amerindians in French Guiana. In this clonally propagated crop, genotypic diversity is enhanced by the incorporation of volunteer plants into farmers' stocks of clonal propagules. Mortality of volunteer plants was density-dependent. Furthermore, the size asymmetry of intraspecific competition increased with local clustering of plants. Size of plants was correlated with their multilocus heterozygosity, and stronger size-dependence of survival in clusters of plants, compared with solitary plants, increased the magnitude of inbreeding depression when competition was severe. The density-dependence of inbreeding depression of volunteer plants helps explain the high heterozygosity of volunteers that survive to harvest time and thus become candidates for clonal propagation. This effect could help favour the maintenance of sex in this 'vegetatively' propagated crop plant.

Importance of latrine communication in European rabbits shifts along a rural-to-urban gradient.

PubMed

Ziege, Madlen; Bierbach, David; Bischoff, Svenja; Brandt, Anna-Lena; Brix, Mareike; Greshake, Bastian; Merker, Stefan; Wenninger, Sandra; Wronski, Torsten; Plath, Martin

2016-06-14

Information transfer in mammalian communication networks is often based on the deposition of excreta in latrines. Depending on the intended receiver(s), latrines are either formed at territorial boundaries (between-group communication) or in core areas of home ranges (within-group communication). The relative importance of both types of marking behavior should depend, amongst other factors, on population densities and social group sizes, which tend to differ between urban and rural wildlife populations. Our study is the first to assess (direct and indirect) anthropogenic influences on mammalian latrine-based communication networks along a rural-to-urban gradient in European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) living in urban, suburban and rural areas in and around Frankfurt am Main (Germany). The proportion of latrines located in close proximity to the burrow was higher at rural study sites compared to urban and suburban ones. At rural sites, we found the largest latrines and highest latrine densities close to the burrow, suggesting that core marking prevailed. By contrast, latrine dimensions and densities increased with increasing distance from the burrow in urban and suburban populations, suggesting a higher importance of peripheral marking. Increased population densities, but smaller social group sizes in urban rabbit populations may lead to an increased importance of between-group communication and thus, favor peripheral over core marking. Our study provides novel insights into the manifold ways by which man-made habitat alterations along a rural-to-urban gradient directly and indirectly affect wildlife populations, including latrine-based communication networks.

Effects of temporal variation in temperature and density dependence on insect population dynamics

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Understanding effects of environmental variation on insect populations is important in light of predictions about increasing future climatic variability. In order to understand the effects of changing environmental variation on population dynamics and life history evolution in insects one would need...

Density-dependent vulnerability of forest ecosystems to drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bottero, Alessandra; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Palik, Brian J.; Bradford, John B.; Fraver, Shawn; Battaglia, Mike A.; Asherin, Lance A.

2017-01-01

1. Climate models predict increasing drought intensity and frequency for many regions, which may have negative consequences for tree recruitment, growth and mortality, as well as forest ecosystem services. Furthermore, practical strategies for minimizing vulnerability to drought are limited. Tree population density, a metric of tree abundance in a given area, is a primary driver of competitive intensity among trees, which influences tree growth and mortality. Manipulating tree population density may be a mechanism for moderating drought-induced stress and growth reductions, although the relationship between tree population density and tree drought vulnerability remains poorly quantified, especially across climatic gradients.2. In this study, we examined three long-term forest ecosystem experiments in two widely distributed North American pine species, ponderosa pine Pinus ponderosa (Lawson & C. Lawson) and red pine Pinus resinosa (Aiton), to better elucidate the relationship between tree population density, growth and drought. These experiments span a broad latitude and aridity range and include tree population density treatments that have been purposefully maintained for several decades. We investigated how tree population density influenced resistance (growth during drought) and resilience (growth after drought compared to pre-drought growth) of stand-level growth during and after documented drought events.3. Our results show that relative tree population density was negatively related to drought resistance and resilience, indicating that trees growing at lower densities were less vulnerable to drought. This result was apparent in all three forest ecosystems, and was consistent across species, stand age and drought intensity.4. Synthesis and applications. Our results highlighted that managing pine forest ecosystems at low tree population density represents a promising adaptive strategy for reducing the adverse impacts of drought on forest growth in coming decades. Nonetheless, the broader applicability of our findings to other types of forest ecosystems merits additional investigation.

Population density and phenotypic attributes influence the level of nematode parasitism in roe deer.

PubMed

Body, Guillaume; Ferté, Hubert; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Delorme, Daniel; Klein, François; Gilot-Fromont, Emmanuelle

2011-11-01

The impact of parasites on population dynamics is well documented, but less is known on how host population density affects parasite spread. This relationship is difficult to assess because of confounding effects of social structure, population density, and environmental conditions that lead to biased among-population comparisons. Here, we analyzed the infestation by two groups of nematodes (gastro-intestinal (GI) strongyles and Trichuris) in the roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) population of Trois Fontaines (France) between 1997 and 2007. During this period, we experimentally manipulated population density through changes in removals. Using measures collected on 297 individuals, we quantified the impact of density on parasite spread after taking into account possible influences of date, age, sex, body mass, and weather conditions. The prevalence and abundance of eggs of both parasites in females were positively related to roe deer density, except Trichuris in adult females. We also found a negative relationship between parasitism and body mass, and strong age and sex-dependent patterns of parasitism. Prime-age adults were less often parasitized and had lower fecal egg counts than fawns or old individuals, and males were more heavily and more often infected than females. Trichuris parasites were not affected by weather, whereas GI strongyles were less present after dry and hot summers. In the range of observed densities, the observed effect of density likely involves a variation of the exposure rate, as opposed to variation in host susceptibility.

How will species respond to climate change? Examining the effects of temperature and population density on an herbivorous insect.

PubMed

Laws, Angela Nardoni; Belovsky, Gary E

2010-04-01

An important challenge facing ecologists is to understand how climate change may affect species performance and species interactions. However, predicting how changes in abiotic variables associated with climate change may affect species performance also depends on the biotic context, which can mediate species responses to climatic change. We conducted a 3-yr field experiment to determine how the herbivorous grasshopper Camnula pellucida (Scudder) responds to manipulations of temperature and population density. Grasshopper survival and fecundity decreased with density, indicating the importance of intraspecific competition. Female fecundity tended to increase with temperature, whereas grasshopper survival exhibited a unimodal response to temperature, with highest survival at intermediate temperatures. Grasshopper performance responses to temperature also depended on density. Peak survival in the low-density treatment occurred in warmer conditions than for the high-density treatment, indicating that the intensity of intraspecific competition varies with temperature. Our data show that changes to the temperature regimen can alter grasshopper performance and determine the intensity of intraspecific competition. However, the effects of temperature on grasshopper performance varied with density. Our data indicate the importance of the biotic context in mediating species responses to climatic factors associated with global change.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal mediation of biomass-density relationship of Medicago sativa L. under two water conditions in a field experiment.

PubMed

Zhang, Qian; Xu, Liming; Tang, Jianjun; Bai, Minge; Chen, Xin

2011-05-01

The biomass-density relationship (whereby the biomass of individual plants decreases as plant density increases) has generally been explained by competition for resources. Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) are able to affect plant interactions by mediating resource utilization, but whether this AMF-mediated interaction will change the biomass-density relationship is unclear. We conducted an experiment to test the hypothesis that AMF will shift the biomass-density relationship by affecting intraspecific competition. Four population densities (10, 100, 1,000, or 10,000 seedlings per square meter) of Medicago sativa L. were planted in field plots. Water application (1,435 or 327.7 mm/year) simulated precipitation in wet areas (sufficient water) and arid areas (insufficient water). The fungicide benomyl was applied to suppress AMF in some plots ("low-AMF" treatment) and not in others ("high-AMF" treatment). The effect of the AMF treatment on the biomass-density relationship depended on water conditions. High AMF enhanced the decrease of individual biomass with increasing density (the biomass-density line had a steeper slope) when water was sufficient but not when water was insufficient. AMF treatment did not affect plant survival rate or population size but did affect absolute competition intensity (ACI). When water was sufficient, ACI was significantly higher in the high-AMF treatment than in the low-AMF treatment, but ACI was unaffected by AMF treatment when water was insufficient. Our results suggest that AMF status did not impact survival rate and population size but did shift the biomass-density relationship via effects on intraspecific competition. This effect of AMF on the biomass-density relationship depended on the availability of water.

Evidence-based control of canine rabies: a critical review of population density reduction.

PubMed

Morters, Michelle K; Restif, Olivier; Hampson, Katie; Cleaveland, Sarah; Wood, James L N; Conlan, Andrew J K

2013-01-01

Control measures for canine rabies include vaccination and reducing population density through culling or sterilization. Despite the evidence that culling fails to control canine rabies, efforts to reduce canine population density continue in many parts of the world. The rationale for reducing population density is that rabies transmission is density-dependent, with disease incidence increasing directly with host density. This may be based, in part, on an incomplete interpretation of historical field data for wildlife, with important implications for disease control in dog populations. Here, we examine historical and more recent field data, in the context of host ecology and epidemic theory, to understand better the role of density in rabies transmission and the reasons why culling fails to control rabies. We conclude that the relationship between host density, disease incidence and other factors is complex and may differ between species. This highlights the difficulties of interpreting field data and the constraints of extrapolations between species, particularly in terms of control policies. We also propose that the complex interactions between dogs and people may render culling of free-roaming dogs ineffective irrespective of the relationship between host density and disease incidence. We conclude that vaccination is the most effective means to control rabies in all species. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Implications of seed banking for recruitment of Southern Appalachian woody species

Treesearch

Janneke Hille Ris Lambers; James S. Clark; Michael Lavine

2002-01-01

Seed dormancy is assumed to be unimportant for population dynamics of temperate woody species, because seeds occur at low densities and are short lived in forest soils. However, low soil seed densities may result from low seed production, and even modest seed longevity can buffer against fluctuating seed production, potentially limiting density-dependent mortality and...

Demographic response of black bears at Cold Lake, Alberta, to the removal of adult males

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sargeant, Glen A.; Ruff, Robert L.

2001-01-01

Previous reports described an increase in population density following the removal of 23 adult male black bears (Ursus americanus) from a 218-km2 study area near Cold Lake, Alberta (the CLSA). This finding plays a central role in continuing debates over population regulation in bears, but has recently been criticized because density estimates were based on assumptions that were not met. Moreover, subsequent discussion has been predicated on conjecture that human exploitation had minimal influence on population dynamics. Our reanalysis supports previous descriptions of trends in bear density at Cold Lake. However, survival records revealed heavier exploitation than previously suspected. An underlying assumption of previous interpretationsCthat the Cold Lake bear population was naturally regulated near carrying capacityCno longer seems reasonable. Adult males deterred bears in other sex-age groups from using the CLSA; however, we found no evidence that birth or death rates were affected. The observed increase in local density should not be construed as a density-dependent response. Abrupt changes in local density might not have occurred if males had been removed from a larger area encompassing the CLSA.

The effects of spatial and temporal heterogeneity on the population dynamics of four animal species in a Danish landscape

PubMed Central

Sibly, Richard M; Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Forchhammer, Mads C; Forbes, Valery E; Topping, Christopher J

2009-01-01

Background Variation in carrying capacity and population return rates is generally ignored in traditional studies of population dynamics. Variation is hard to study in the field because of difficulties controlling the environment in order to obtain statistical replicates, and because of the scale and expense of experimenting on populations. There may also be ethical issues. To circumvent these problems we used detailed simulations of the simultaneous behaviours of interacting animals in an accurate facsimile of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of skylarks Alauda arvensis, voles Microtus agrestis, a ground beetle Bembidion lampros and a linyphiid spider Erigone atra. This allows us to quantify and evaluate the importance of spatial and temporal heterogeneity on the population dynamics of the four species. Results Both spatial and temporal heterogeneity affected the relationship between population growth rate and population density in all four species. Spatial heterogeneity accounted for 23–30% of the variance in population growth rate after accounting for the effects of density, reflecting big differences in local carrying capacity associated with the landscape features important to individual species. Temporal heterogeneity accounted for 3–13% of the variance in vole, skylark and spider, but 43% in beetles. The associated temporal variation in carrying capacity would be problematic in traditional analyses of density dependence. Return rates were less than one in all species and essentially invariant in skylarks, spiders and beetles. Return rates varied over the landscape in voles, being slower where there were larger fluctuations in local population sizes. Conclusion Our analyses estimated the traditional parameters of carrying capacities and return rates, but these are now seen as varying continuously over the landscape depending on habitat quality and the mechanisms of density dependence. The importance of our results lies in our demonstration that the effects of spatial and temporal heterogeneity must be accounted for if we are to have accurate predictive models for use in management and conservation. This is an area which until now has lacked an adequate theoretical framework and methodology. PMID:19549327

Density-dependent recruitment rates in great tits: the importance of being heavier

PubMed Central

Both, C.; Visser, M. E.; Verboven, N.

1999-01-01

In birds, individuals with a higher mass at fledging have a higher probability of recruiting into the breeding population. This can be because mass is an indicator of general condition and thereby of the ability to survive adverse circumstances and/or because fledging mass is positively related to competitive strength in interactions with other fledglings. This latter explanation leads to two testable predictions: (i) there is stronger selection for fledging mass when there is more severe competition (i.e. at higher densities); and (ii) that besides absolute fledging mass, relative mass of fledglings within a cohort is important. We test these two predictions in two great tit (Parus major) populations. The first prediction was met for one of the populations, showing that competition affects the importance of mass-dependent recruitment. The second prediction, that fledglings recruit relatively well if they are heavy compared to the other fledglings, is met for both populations. The consequence of the importance of relative rather than absolute fledging mass is that the fitness consequences of reproductive decisions affecting fledging mass, such as clutch size, depend on the decisions of the other individuals in the population.

One-dimensional time-dependent fluid model of a very high density low-pressure inductively coupled plasma

DOE PAGES

Chaplin, Vernon H.; Bellan, Paul M.

2015-12-28

A time-dependent two-fluid model has been developed to understand axial variations in the plasma parameters in a very high density (peak n e~ > 5x10 19 m –3) argon inductively coupled discharge in a long 1.1 cm radius tube. The model equations are written in 1D, with radial losses to the tube walls accounted for by the inclusion of effective particle and energy sink terms. The ambipolar diffusion equation and electron energy equation are solved to find the electron density n e(z,t) and temperature T e(z,t), and the populations of the neutral argon 4s metastable, 4s resonant, and 4p excitedmore » state manifolds are calculated in order to determine the stepwise ionization rate and calculate radiative energy losses. The model has been validated through comparisons with Langmuir probe ion saturation current measurements; close agreement between the simulated and measured axial plasma density profiles and the initial density rise rate at each location was obtained at p Ar = 30-60 mTorr. Lastly, we present detailed results from calculations at 60 mTorr, including the time-dependent electron temperature, excited state populations, and energy budget within and downstream of the radiofrequency (RF) antenna.« less

Dynamics of a recovering Arctic bird population: the importance of climate, density dependence, and site quality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bruggeman, Jason E.; Swem, Ted; Andersen, David E.; Kennedy, Patricia L.; Nigro, Debora A.

2015-01-01

Intrinsic and extrinsic factors affect vital rates and population-level processes, and understanding these factors is paramount to devising successful management plans for wildlife species. For example, birds time migration in response, in part, to local and broadscale climate fluctuations to initiate breeding upon arrival to nesting territories, and prolonged inclement weather early in the breeding season can inhibit egg-laying and reduce productivity. Also, density-dependent regulation occurs in raptor populations, as territory size is related to resource availability. Arctic Peregrine Falcons (Falco peregrinus tundrius; hereafter Arctic peregrine) have a limited and northern breeding distribution, including the Colville River Special Area (CRSA) in the National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska, USA. We quantified influences of climate, topography, nest productivity, prey habitat, density dependence, and interspecific competition affecting Arctic peregrines in the CRSA by applying the Dail-Madsen model to estimate abundance and vital rates of adults on nesting cliffs from 1981 through 2002. Arctic peregrine abundance increased throughout the 1980s, which spanned the population's recovery from DDT-induced reproductive failure, until exhibiting a stationary trend in the 1990s. Apparent survival rate (i.e., emigration; death) was negatively correlated with the number of adult Arctic peregrines on the cliff the previous year, suggesting effects of density-dependent population regulation. Apparent survival and arrival rates (i.e., immigration; recruitment) were higher during years with earlier snowmelt and milder winters, and apparent survival was positively correlated with nesting season maximum daily temperature. Arrival rate was positively correlated with average Arctic peregrine productivity along a cliff segment from the previous year and initial abundance was positively correlated with cliff height. Higher cliffs with documented higher productivity (presumably indicative of higher-quality habitat), are a priority for continued protection from potential nearby development and disturbance to minimize population-level impacts. Climate change may affect Arctic peregrines in multiple ways, including through access to more snow-free nest sites and a lengthened breeding season that may increase likelihood of nest success. Our work provides insight into factors affecting a population during and after recovery, and demonstrates how the Dail-Madsen model can be used for any unmarked population with multiple years of abundance data collected through repeated surveys.

[Krigle estimation and its simulated sampling of Chilo suppressalis population density].

PubMed

Yuan, Zheming; Bai, Lianyang; Wang, Kuiwu; Hu, Xiangyue

2004-07-01

In order to draw up a rational sampling plan for the larvae population of Chilo suppressalis, an original population and its two derivative populations, random population and sequence population, were sampled and compared with random sampling, gap-range-random sampling, and a new systematic sampling integrated Krigle interpolation and random original position. As for the original population whose distribution was up to aggregative and dependence range in line direction was 115 cm (6.9 units), gap-range-random sampling in line direction was more precise than random sampling. Distinguishing the population pattern correctly is the key to get a better precision. Gap-range-random sampling and random sampling are fit for aggregated population and random population, respectively, but both of them are difficult to apply in practice. Therefore, a new systematic sampling named as Krigle sample (n = 441) was developed to estimate the density of partial sample (partial estimation, n = 441) and population (overall estimation, N = 1500). As for original population, the estimated precision of Krigle sample to partial sample and population was better than that of investigation sample. With the increase of the aggregation intensity of population, Krigel sample was more effective than investigation sample in both partial estimation and overall estimation in the appropriate sampling gap according to the dependence range.

Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatfield, Jeff S.; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; Krause, Crystal M.

2012-01-01

Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds.

Postfire regeneration in Cytisus oromediterraneus: sources of variation and morphology of the below-ground parts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Santos, Belén; Martínez, Carolina; García, Jose A.; Puerto, Angel

2004-10-01

Postfire regeneration in Cytisus oromediterraneus, a Mediterranean-basin mountain matorral species, shows a wide range of possibilities and variations in sexual and asexual regeneration. Its interpretation requires basic information on the below-ground structure of parent plants as well as on the origin and development of seedlings and various ramet (sprout clump) types: rootstock, basal-branch, and lateral-root ramets. Morphology and emergence of such ramets in C. oromediterraneus is similar to that in related species but with some specific features described here in detail. In order to determine if characteristics of 1-year-old populations depended on the age of the burned parent plants, two populations were investigated: (A 7-year-old, and B 14-year-old). In the most frequent populations in our study area, i.e. those from parent populations of ca. 7 years (A): a—plant density and biomass were highly variable and positively correlated; b—frequency distribution differed significantly from normal distribution for plant weight, but not for other parameters such as diameters, perimeter, and height, in which it did, however, show asymmetry; c—perimeter was the best parameter for estimating individuals' weight; d—there was a higher number of seedlings than ramets but their biomass was smaller; e—the size of seedlings and ramets showed wide variation. In comparison with population A (7-year-old) population B (14-year-old) showed: significantly higher density, slightly lower biomass, higher number of small individuals, mainly seedlings, and less vigorous resprouting. In general, 1 year after fire, Cytisus oromeditarraneus population density mainly depends on the germination response, while the above-ground biomass mainly depends on the vegetative response and the intensity of both of them is conditioned by parent plant age.

Changes of buoyant density during the S-phase of the cell cycle. Direct evidence demonstrated in acute myeloid leukemia by flowcytometry.

PubMed

Daenen, S; Huiges, W; Modderman, E; Halie, M R

1993-01-01

Studies with synchronized or exponentially growing bacteria and mammalian cell lines are not able to demonstrate small changes in buoyant density during the cell cycle. Flowcytometric analysis of density separated acute myeloid leukemia cells, a system not dependent on time-related variables, shows that the cellular buoyant density increases slightly with up to 0.008 g/ml during the S-phase, at least in cryo-preserved cells used in this study. This contrasts with the generally accepted belief that S-phase cells have a lower or constant buoyant density. A practical implication is that separation of cell (sub)populations based on differences in buoyant density could be flawed to the extent that these populations contain S-phase cells.

Fraser River sockeye salmon productivity and climate: A re-analysis that avoids an undesirable property of Ricker’s curve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKinnell, Skip

2008-05-01

In descending order of importance, artificial spawning channels, density-dependent mortality, carryover mortality, and climate have significant influences on the average productivity of Fraser River sockeye salmon ( Oncorhynchus nerka). When factors that are known or have been hypothesized to affect Fraser River sockeye salmon productivity are included in a single analytical framework, no significant change in average productivity occurred in 1976/1977, however, beginning in 1989 average productivity was significantly lower. In the one lake (Chilko) in the Fraser River basin where pre-smolt survival can be distinguished from post-smolt survival, this decline arose from freshwater causes. After accounting for other factors that have a greater influence, Fraser River sockeye salmon productivity tends to be slightly lower in years when the intensity of the Aleutian low pressure region is stormier in winter, although the effect is not strongly expressed in any particular population. A footnote to the study was the realization that estimates of Ricker’s density-dependent mortality parameter, β, are influenced by both the numerical properties of the equation and by population biology; density-dependent and density-independent influences on the estimates of the parameter are confounded.

THE SEARCH DYNAMICS OF RECRUITED HONEY BEES, APIS MELLIFERA LIGUSTICA SPINOLA.

PubMed

Friesen, Larry Jon

1973-02-01

Some variables in the recruitment process of honey bees were studied as they affected the distribution and success of the searching population in the field. The dance language and odor dependence hypotheses were contrasted and their predictions compared with the following observations. 1. Recruits were attracted to the odors from the food which were carried by foragers and were dependent on these odors for success. 2. A monitoring of recruit densities in the field demonstrated an association of searchers with the forager flight path. 3. The degree of correspondence between the distribution of recruits and the direction of the flight path to the feeding site was correlated with wind direction, not search efficiency. 4. Feeding stations upwind of the hive provided the highest recruit success rates, shortest search times, and the least dependence on wind speed. Downwind stations provided the lowest recruit success rates, the longest search times, and the greatest dependence on wind speed. 5. A disproportionate increase in recruit success with an increase in the number of foragers visiting a feeding site was correlated with the density of the foragers in the field. 6. Increased bee densities at the feeding site, even with bees from different hives, increased recruit success and shortened search times. 7. The progression of and the extremely long intervals between the onset of recruit arrivals at areas along the forager flight path suggested communication among bees in the field and a dependence of recruit success on the density and growth of the searching population. These observations are compatible with an odor dependent search behavior and together fail to support the predictions of the dance language hypothesis. Dance attendants appeared to have been conditioned to the odors associated with returning foragers and, after leaving the hive, entered a searching population dependent on these odors for success. The dependence of recruit success on food odor at the feeding station, the density of foragers between this station and the hive, and the direction of the wind indicates that the integrity of the forager flight path was extremely important to this success. The distributions and extended search times of recruits indicated a search behavior based on positive anemotaxis during the perception of the proper combination of odors and negative anemotaxis after the loss of this stimulation.

Simulation of Population Processes with a Programmable Pocket Calculator.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kidd, N. A. C.

1979-01-01

Presents a set of simulation models for use in teaching population dynamics. These models are designed specifically for use with a programmable pocket calculator, and can be used to demonstrate growth of populations with discrete or overlapping generations and also to explore effects of density-dependent and -independent mortality. (Author/CS)

Census Methods for Caribbean Land Birds

Treesearch

Joseph M. Wunderle

1994-01-01

Different census methods can be used to survey the distribution of a terrestrial bird species or to monitor population changes. The appropriate method depends on whether the objective is simply to document the presence of a species or to quantify its relative abundance, population density, population trends over time, habitat use, survivorship, or the physical...

Frequency-dependent population dynamics: effect of sex ratio and mating system on the elasticity of population growth rate.

PubMed

Haridas, C V; Eager, Eric Alan; Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte

2014-11-01

When vital rates depend on population structure (e.g., relative frequencies of males or females), an important question is how the long-term population growth rate λ responds to changes in rates. For instance, availability of mates may depend on the sex ratio of the population and hence reproductive rates could be frequency-dependent. In such cases change in any vital rate alters the structure, which in turn, affect frequency-dependent rates. We show that the elasticity of λ to a rate is the sum of (i) the effect of the linear change in the rate and (ii) the effect of nonlinear changes in frequency-dependent rates. The first component is always positive and is the classical elasticity in density-independent models obtained directly from the population projection matrix. The second component can be positive or negative and is absent in density-independent models. We explicitly express each component of the elasticity as a function of vital rates, eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the population projection matrix. We apply this result to a two-sex model, where male and female fertilities depend on adult sex ratio α (ratio of females to males) and the mating system (e.g., polygyny) through a harmonic mating function. We show that the nonlinear component of elasticity to a survival rate is negligible only when the average number of mates (per male) is close to α. In a strictly monogamous species, elasticity to female survival is larger than elasticity to male survival when α<1 (less females). In a polygynous species, elasticity to female survival can be larger than that of male survival even when sex ratio is female biased. Our results show how demography and mating system together determine the response to selection on sex-specific vital rates. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evolutionary stability of mutualism: interspecific population regulation as an evolutionarily stable strategy.

PubMed

Holland, J Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L; Schultz, Stewart T

2004-09-07

Interspecific mutualisms are often vulnerable to instability because low benefit : cost ratios can rapidly lead to extinction or to the conversion of mutualism to parasite-host or predator-prey interactions. We hypothesize that the evolutionary stability of mutualism can depend on how benefits and costs to one mutualist vary with the population density of its partner, and that stability can be maintained if a mutualist can influence demographic rates and regulate the population density of its partner. We test this hypothesis in a model of mutualism with key features of senita cactus (Pachycereus schottii)-senita moth (Upiga virescens) interactions, in which benefits of pollination and costs of larval seed consumption to plant fitness depend on pollinator density. We show that plants can maximize their fitness by allocating resources to the production of excess flowers at the expense of fruit. Fruit abortion resulting from excess flower production reduces pre-adult survival of the pollinating seed-consumer, and maintains its density beneath a threshold that would destabilize the mutualism. Such a strategy of excess flower production and fruit abortion is convergent and evolutionarily stable against invasion by cheater plants that produce few flowers and abort few to no fruit. This novel mechanism of achieving evolutionarily stable mutualism, namely interspecific population regulation, is qualitatively different from other mechanisms invoking partner choice or selective rewards, and may be a general process that helps to preserve mutualistic interactions in nature.

Low crop plant population densities promote pollen-mediated gene flow in spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.).

PubMed

Willenborg, Christian J; Brûlé-Babel, Anita L; Van Acker, Rene C

2009-12-01

Transgenic wheat is currently being field tested with the intent of eventual commercialization. The development of wheat genotypes with novel traits has raised concerns regarding the presence of volunteer wheat populations and the role they may play in facilitating transgene movement. Here, we report the results of a field experiment that investigated the potential of spring wheat plant population density and crop height to minimize gene flow from a herbicide-resistant (HR) volunteer population to a non-HR crop. Pollen-mediated gene flow (PMGF) between the HR volunteer wheat population and four conventional spring wheat genotypes varying in height was assessed over a range of plant population densities. Natural hybridization events between the two cultivars were detected by phenotypically scoring plants in F(1) populations followed by verification with Mendelian segregation ratios in the F(1:2) families. PMGF was strongly associated with crop yield components, but showed no association with flowering synchrony. Maximum observed PMGF was always less than 0.6%, regardless of crop height and density. The frequency of PMGF in spring wheat decreased exponentially with increasing plant population density, but showed no dependence on either crop genotype or height. However, increasing plant densities beyond the recommended planting rate of 300 cropped wheat plants m(-2) provided no obvious benefit to reducing PMGF. Nevertheless, our results demonstrate a critical plant density of 175-200 cropped wheat plants m(-2) below which PMGF frequencies rise exponentially with decreasing plant density. These results will be useful in the development of mechanistic models and best management practices that collectively facilitate the coexistence of transgenic and nontransgenic wheat crops.

Ecology and Population Dynamics of Juvenile Dungeness Crab in Grays Harbor Estuary and Adjacent Nearshore Waters of the Southern Washington Coast

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-10-01

77 5.1.2 Models of environmental and density- dependent recruitment ................................................ 80 5.2 Other Population...juvenile Dungeness crabs and flatfish ........................................ 17 Figure 1.6. Seasonal change in bottom temperature and bottom salinity ...to 2+ ............. 120 Figure 6.14. Size dependence of relative size increments per molt (expressed as a fraction of premolt size), as obtained from

Hypoxic areas, density-dependence and food limitation drive the body condition of a heavily exploited marine fish predator

PubMed Central

Käll, Filip; Hansson, Martin; Baranova, Tatjana; Karlsson, Olle; Lundström, Karl; Neuenfeldt, Stefan; Hjelm, Joakim

2016-01-01

Investigating the factors regulating fish condition is crucial in ecology and the management of exploited fish populations. The body condition of cod (Gadus morhua) in the Baltic Sea has dramatically decreased during the past two decades, with large implications for the fishery relying on this resource. Here, we statistically investigated the potential drivers of the Baltic cod condition during the past 40 years using newly compiled fishery-independent biological data and hydrological observations. We evidenced a combination of different factors operating before and after the ecological regime shift that occurred in the Baltic Sea in the early 1990s. The changes in cod condition related to feeding opportunities, driven either by density-dependence or food limitation, along the whole period investigated and to the fivefold increase in the extent of hypoxic areas in the most recent 20 years. Hypoxic areas can act on cod condition through different mechanisms related directly to species physiology, or indirectly to behaviour and trophic interactions. Our analyses found statistical evidence for an effect of the hypoxia-induced habitat compression on cod condition possibly operating via crowding and density-dependent processes. These results furnish novel insights into the population dynamics of Baltic Sea cod that can aid the management of this currently threatened population. PMID:27853557

Phenology, seed dispersal and difficulties in natural recruitment of the canopy tree Pachira quinata (Malvaceae).

PubMed

Castellanos, Maria Clara; Stevenson, Pablo R

2011-06-01

Life history and recruitment information of tropical trees in natural populations is scarce even for important commercial species. This study focused on a widely exploited Neotropical canopy species, Pachira quinata (Malvaceae), at the southernmost, wettest limit of its natural distribution, in the Colombian Amazonia. We studied phenological patterns, seed production and natural densities; assessed the importance of seed dispersal and density-dependent effects on recruitment, using field experiments. At this seasonal forest P. quinata was overrepresented by large adult trees and had very low recruitment caused by the combination of low fruit production, high seed predation and very high seedling mortality under continuous canopies mostly due to damping off pathogens. There was no evidence of negative distance or density effects on recruitment, but a clear requirement of canopy gaps for seedling survival and growth, where pathogen incidence was drastically reduced. In spite of the strong dependence on light for survival of seedlings, seeds germinated readily in the dark. At the study site, the population of P. quinata appeared to be declining, likely because recruitment depended on the rare combination of large gap formation with the presence of reproductive trees nearby. The recruitment biology of this species makes it very vulnerable to any type of logging in natural populations.

The role of predation and food limitation on claims for compensation, reindeer demography and population dynamics

PubMed Central

Tveraa, Torkild; Stien, Audun; Brøseth, Henrik; Yoccoz, Nigel G

2014-01-01

A major challenge in biodiversity conservation is to facilitate viable populations of large apex predators in ecosystems where they were recently driven to ecological extinction due to resource conflict with humans. Monetary compensation for losses of livestock due to predation is currently a key instrument to encourage human–carnivore coexistence. However, a lack of quantitative estimates of livestock losses due to predation leads to disagreement over the practice of compensation payments. This disagreement sustains the human–carnivore conflict. The level of depredation on year-round, free-ranging, semi-domestic reindeer by large carnivores in Fennoscandia has been widely debated over several decades. In Norway, the reindeer herders claim that lynx and wolverine cause losses of tens of thousands of animals annually and cause negative population growth in herds. Conversely, previous research has suggested that monetary predator compensation can result in positive population growth in the husbandry, with cascading negative effects of high grazer densities on the biodiversity in tundra ecosystems. We utilized a long-term, large-scale data set to estimate the relative importance of lynx and wolverine predation and density-dependent and climatic food limitation on claims for losses, recruitment and population growth rates in Norwegian reindeer husbandry. Claims of losses increased with increasing predator densities, but with no detectable effect on population growth rates. Density-dependent and climatic effects on claims of losses, recruitment and population growth rates were much stronger than the effects of variation in lynx and wolverine densities. Synthesis and applications. Our analysis provides a quantitative basis for predator compensation and estimation of the costs of reintroducing lynx and wolverine in areas with free-ranging semi-domestic reindeer. We outline a potential path for conflict management which involves adaptive monitoring programmes, open access to data, herder involvement and development of management strategy evaluation (MSE) models to disentangle complex responses including multiple stakeholders and individual harvester decisions. PMID:25558085

COST VS. QUALITY IN DEMOGRAPHIC MODELLING: WHEN IS A VITAL RATE GOOD ENOUGH?

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation will focus on the assessment of quality for demographic parameters to be used in population-level risk assessment. Current population models can handle genetic, demographic, and environmental stochasticity, density dependence, and multiple stressors. However, cu...

Effect of horseshoe crab spawning density on nest disturbance and exhumation of eggs: A simulation study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, D.R.

2007-01-01

Because the Delaware Bay horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) population is managed to provide for dependent species, such as migratory shorebirds, there is a need to understand the process of egg exhumation and to predict eggs available to foraging shorebirds. A simple spatial model was used to simulate horseshoe crab spawning that would occur on a typical Delaware Bay beach during spring tide cycles to quantify density-dependent nest disturbance. At least 20% of nests and eggs were disturbed for levels of spawning greater than one third of the average density in Delaware Bay during 2004. Nest disturbance increased approximately linearly as spawning density increased from one half to twice the 2004 level. As spawning density increased further, the percentage of eggs that were disturbed reached an asymptote of 70% for densities up to 10 times the density in 2004. Nest disturbance was heaviest in the mid beach zone. Nest disturbance precedes entrainment and begins the process of exhumation of eggs to surface sediments. Model predictions were combined with observations from egg surveys to estimate a snap-shot exhumation rate of 5-9% of disturbed eggs. Because an unknown quantity of eggs were exhumed and removed from the beach prior to the survey, cumulative exhumation rate was likely to have been higher than the snap-shot estimate. Because egg exhumation is density-dependent, in addition to managing for a high population size, identification and conservation of beaches where spawning horseshoe crabs concentrate in high densities (i.e., hot spots) are important steps toward providing a reliable food supply for migratory shorebirds. ?? 2007 Estuarine Research Federation.

Dynamic regimes of local homogeneous population model with time lag

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neverova, Galina; Frisman, Efim

We investigated Moran - Ricker model with time lag 1. It is made analytical and numerical study of the model. It is shown there is co-existence of various dynamic regimes under the same values of parameters. The model simultaneously possesses several different limit regimes: stable state, periodic fluctuations, and chaotic attractor. The research results show if present population size substantially depends on population number of previous year then it is observed quasi-periodic oscillations. Fluctuations with period 2 occur when the growth of population size is regulated by density dependence in the current year.

The non-linear, interactive effects of population density and climate drive the geographical patterns of waterfowl survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhao, Qing; Boomer, G. Scott; Kendall, William L.

2018-01-01

On-going climate change has major impacts on ecological processes and patterns. Understanding the impacts of climate on the geographical patterns of survival can provide insights to how population dynamics respond to climate change and provide important information for the development of appropriate conservation strategies at regional scales. It is challenging to understand the impacts of climate on survival, however, due to the fact that the non-linear relationship between survival and climate can be modified by density-dependent processes. In this study we extended the Brownie model to partition hunting and non-hunting mortalities and linked non-hunting survival to covariates. We applied this model to four decades (1972–2014) of waterfowl band-recovery, breeding population survey, and precipitation and temperature data covering multiple ecological regions to examine the non-linear, interactive effects of population density and climate on waterfowl non-hunting survival at a regional scale. Our results showed that the non-linear effect of temperature on waterfowl non-hunting survival was modified by breeding population density. The concave relationship between non-hunting survival and temperature suggested that the effects of warming on waterfowl survival might be multifaceted. Furthermore, the relationship between non-hunting survival and temperature was stronger when population density was higher, suggesting that high-density populations may be less buffered against warming than low-density populations. Our study revealed distinct relationships between waterfowl non-hunting survival and climate across and within ecological regions, highlighting the importance of considering different conservation strategies according to region-specific population and climate conditions. Our findings and associated novel modelling approach have wide implications in conservation practice.

The effect of area size and predation on the time to extinction of prairie vole populations. simulation studies via SERDYCA: a Spatially-Explicit Individual-Based Model of Rodent Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kostova, T; Carlsen, T

2003-11-21

We present a spatially-explicit individual-based computational model of rodent dynamics, customized for the prairie vole species, M. Ochrogaster. The model is based on trophic relationships and represents important features such as territorial competition, mating behavior, density-dependent predation and dispersal out of the modeled spatial region. Vegetation growth and vole fecundity are dependent on climatic components. The results of simulations show that the model correctly predicts the overall temporal dynamics of the population density. Time-series analysis shows a very good match between the periods corresponding to the peak population density frequencies predicted by the model and the ones reported in themore » literature. The model is used to study the relation between persistence, landscape area and predation. We introduce the notions of average time to extinction (ATE) and persistence frequency to quantify persistence. While the ATE decreases with decrease of area, it is a bell-shaped function of the predation level: increasing for 'small' and decreasing for 'large' predation levels.« less

Excited level populations and excitation kinetics of nonequilibrium ionizing argon discharge plasma of atmospheric pressure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Akatsuka, Hiroshi

2009-04-15

Population densities of excited states of argon atoms are theoretically examined for ionizing argon plasma in a state of nonequilibrium under atmospheric pressure from the viewpoint of elementary processes with collisional radiative model. The dependence of excited state populations on the electron and gas temperatures is discussed. Two electron density regimes are found, which are distinguished by the population and depopulation mechanisms for the excited states in problem. When the electron impact excitation frequency for the population or depopulation is lower than the atomic impact one, the electron density of the plasma is considered as low to estimate the populationmore » and depopulation processes. Some remarkable characteristics of population and depopulation mechanisms are found for the low electron density atmospheric plasma, where thermal relaxation by atomic collisions becomes the predominant process within the group of close-energy states in the ionizing plasma of atmospheric pressure, and the excitation temperature is almost the same as the gas temperature. In addition to the collisional relaxation by argon atoms, electron impact excitation from the ground state is also an essential population mechanism. The ratios of population density of the levels pairs, between which exists a large energy gap, include information on the electron collisional kinetics. For high electron density, the effect of atomic collisional relaxation becomes weak. For this case, the excitation mechanism is explained as electron impact ladderlike excitation similar to low-pressure ionizing plasma, since the electron collision becomes the dominant process for the population and depopulation kinetics.« less

Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population

PubMed Central

Bartolino, Valerio; Tian, Huidong; Bergström, Ulf; Jounela, Pekka; Aro, Eero; Dieterich, Christian; Meier, H. E. Markus; Cardinale, Massimiliano; Bland, Barbara

2017-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms of spatial population dynamics is crucial for the successful management of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms of spatial distribution are generally complex due to the concurrent forcing of both density-dependent species interactions and density-independent environmental factors. Despite the high economic value and central ecological importance of cod in the Baltic Sea, the drivers of its spatio-temporal population dynamics have not been analytically investigated so far. In this paper, we used an extensive trawl survey dataset in combination with environmental data to investigate the spatial dynamics of the distribution of the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades using Generalized Additive Models. The results showed that adult cod distribution was mainly affected by cod population size, and to a minor degree by small-scale hydrological factors and the extent of suitable reproductive areas. As population size decreases, the cod population concentrates to the southern part of the Baltic Sea, where the preferred more marine environment conditions are encountered. Using the fitted models, we predicted the Baltic cod distribution back to the 1970s and a temporal index of cod spatial occupation was developed. Our study will contribute to the management and conservation of this important resource and of the ecosystem where it occurs, by showing the forces shaping its spatial distribution and therefore the potential response of the population to future exploitation and environmental changes. PMID:28207804

Population viability of the Snake River chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Emlen, John M.

1995-01-01

In the presence of historical data, population viability models of intermediate complexity can be parameterized and utilized to project the consequences of various management actions for endangered species. A general stochastic population dynamics model with density feedback, age structure, and autocorrelated environmental fluctuations was constructed and parameterized for best fit over 36 years of spring chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) redd count data in five Idaho index streams. Simulations indicate that persistence of the Snake River spring chinook salmon population depends primarily on density-independent mortality. Improvement of rearing habitat, predator control, reduced fishing pressure, and improved dam passage all would alleviate density-independent mortality. The current value of the Ricker α should provide for a continuation of the status quo. A recovery of the population to 1957–1961 levels within 100 years would require an approximately 75% increase in survival and (or) fecundity. Manipulations of the Ricker β are likely to have little or no effect on persistence versus extinction, but considerable influence on population size.

Comparison of capture-recapture and visual count indices of prairie dog densities in black-footed ferret habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fagerstone, Kathleen A.; Biggins, Dean E.

1986-01-01

Black-footed ferrets (Mustela nigripes) are dependent on prairie dogs (Cynomys spp.) for food and on their burrows for shelter and rearing young. A stable prairie dog population may therefore be the most important factor determining the survival of ferrets. A rapid method of determining prairie dog density would be useful for assessing prairie dog density in colonies currently occupied by ferrets and for selecting prairie dog colonies in other areas for ferret translocation. This study showed that visual counts can provide a rapid density estimate. Visual counts of white-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys leucurus) were significantly correlated (r = 0.95) with mark-recapture population density estimates on two study areas near Meeteetse, Wyoming. Suggestions are given for use of visual counts.

Impact of density-dependent migration flows on epidemic outbreaks in heterogeneous metapopulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ripoll, J.; Avinyó, A.; Pellicer, M.; Saldaña, J.

2015-08-01

We investigate the role of migration patterns on the spread of epidemics in complex networks. We enhance the SIS-diffusion model on metapopulations to a nonlinear diffusion. Specifically, individuals move randomly over the network but at a rate depending on the population of the departure patch. In the absence of epidemics, the migration-driven equilibrium is described by quantifying the total number of individuals living in heavily or lightly populated areas. Our analytical approach reveals that strengthening the migration from populous areas contains the infection at the early stage of the epidemic. Moreover, depending on the exponent of the nonlinear diffusion rate, epidemic outbreaks do not always occur in the most populated areas as one might expect.

The effects of regional angling effort, angler behavior, and harvesting efficiency on landscape patterns of overfishing.

PubMed

Hunt, Len M; Arlinghaus, Robert; Lester, Nigel; Kushneriuk, Rob

2011-10-01

We used a coupled social-ecological model to study the landscape-scale patterns emerging from a mobile population of anglers exploiting a spatially structured walleye (Sander vitreus) fishery. We systematically examined how variations in angler behaviors (i.e., relative importance of walleye catch rate in guiding fishing site choices), harvesting efficiency (as implied by varying degrees of inverse density-dependent catchability of walleye), and angler population size affected the depletion of walleye stocks across 157 lakes located near Thunder Bay (Ontario, Canada). Walleye production biology was calibrated using lake-specific morphometric and edaphic features, and angler fishing site choices were modeled using an empirically grounded multi-attribute utility function. We found support for the hypothesis of sequential collapses of walleye stocks across the landscape in inverse proportionality of travel cost from the urban residence of anglers. This pattern was less pronounced when the regional angler population was low, density-dependent catchability was absent or low, and angler choices of lakes in the landscape were strongly determined by catch rather than non-catch-related attributes. Thus, our study revealed a systematic pattern of high catch importance reducing overfishing potential at low and aggravating overfishing potential at high angler population sizes. The analyses also suggested that density-dependent catchability might have more serious consequences for regional overfishing states than variations in angler behavior. We found little support for the hypotheses of systematic overexploitation of the most productive walleye stocks and homogenized catch-related qualities among lakes sharing similar access costs to anglers. Therefore, one should not expect anglers to systematically exploit the most productive fisheries or to equalize catch rates among lakes through their mobility and other behaviors. This study underscores that understanding landscape overfishing dynamics involves a careful appreciation of angler population size and how it interacts with the attributes that drive angler behaviors and depensatory mechanisms such as inverse density-dependent catchability. Only when all of these ingredients are considered and understood can one derive reasonably predictable patterns of overfishing in the landscape. These patterns range from self-regulating systems with low levels of regional fishing pressure to sequential collapse of walleye fisheries from the origin of angling effort.

Combined effects of climate, predation, and density dependence on Greater and Lesser Scaup population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Beth E.; Hooten, Mevin B.; DeVink, Jean-Michel; Koons, David N.

2015-01-01

An understanding of species relationships is critical in the management and conservation of populations facing climate change, yet few studies address how climate alters species interactions and other population drivers. We use a long-term, broad-scale data set of relative abundance to examine the influence of climate, predators, and density dependence on the population dynamics of declining scaup (Aythya) species within the core of their breeding range. The state-space modeling approach we use applies to a wide range of wildlife species, especially populations monitored over broad spatiotemporal extents. Using this approach, we found that immediate snow cover extent in the preceding winter and spring had the strongest effects, with increases in mean snow cover extent having a positive effect on the local surveyed abundance of scaup. The direct effects of mesopredator abundance on scaup population dynamics were weaker, but the results still indicated a potential interactive process between climate and food web dynamics (mesopredators, alternative prey, and scaup). By considering climate variables and other potential effects on population dynamics, and using a rigorous estimation framework, we provide insight into complex ecological processes for guiding conservation and policy actions aimed at mitigating and reversing the decline of scaup.

Analysis of spatial density dependence in gypsy moth mortality

Treesearch

Andrew Liebhold; Joseph S. Elkinton

1991-01-01

The gypsy moth is perhaps the most widely studied forest insect in the world and much of this research has focused on various aspects of population dynamics. But despite this voluminous amount of research we still lack a good understanding of which, if any, natural enemy species regulate gypsy moth populations. The classical approach to analyzing insect population...

Density-Dependent Prevalence of Francisella tularensis in Fluctuating Vole Populations, Northwestern Spain

PubMed Central

Rodríguez-Pastor, Ruth; Escudero, Raquel; Vidal, Dolors; Mougeot, François; Arroyo, Beatriz; Lambin, Xavier; Vila-Coro, Ave Maria; Rodríguez-Moreno, Isabel; Anda, Pedro

2017-01-01

Tularemia in humans in northwestern Spain is associated with increases in vole populations. Prevalence of infection with Francisella tularensis in common voles increased to 33% during a vole population fluctuation. This finding confirms that voles are spillover agents for zoonotic outbreaks. Ecologic interactions associated with tularemia prevention should be considered. PMID:28726608

Global attractors for a discrete selection model with periodic immigration

Treesearch

James F. Selgrade; James H. Roberds

2007-01-01

A one-island selection-migration model is used to study the periodic immigration of a population of fixed allele frequency into a natural population. Density-dependent selection and immigration are the primary factors affecting the demographic genetic change in the island population. With the assumptions of complete dominance (CD) or no dominance (ND) and homozygote...

Using Stocking or Harvesting to Reverse Period-Doubling Bifurcations in Discrete Population Models

Treesearch

James F. Selgrade

1998-01-01

This study considers a general class of 2-dimensional, discrete population models where each per capita transition function (fitness) depends on a linear combination of the densities of the interacting populations. The fitness functions are either monotone decreasing functions (pioneer fitnesses) or one-humped functions (climax fitnesses). Four sets of necessary...

Reversing Period-Doubling Bifurcations in Models of Population Interactions Using Constant Stocking or Harvesting

Treesearch

James F. Selgrade; James H. Roberds

1998-01-01

This study considers a general class of two-dimensional, discrete population models where each per capita transition function (fitness) depends on a linear combination of the densities of the interacting populations. The fitness functions are either monotone decreasing functions (pioneer fitnesses) or one-humped functions (climax fitnesses). Conditions are derived...

Density of transneptunian object 229762 2007 UK126

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grundy, Will

2017-08-01

Densities provide unique information about bulk composition and interior structure and are key to going beyond the skin-deep view offered by remote-sensing techniques based on photometry, spectroscopy, and polarimetry. They are known for a handful of the relict planetesimals that populate our Solar System's Kuiper belt, revealing intriguing differences between small and large bodies. More and better quality data are needed to address fundamental questions about how planetesimals form from nebular solids, and how distinct materials are distributed through the nebula. Masses from binary orbits are generally quite precise, but a problem afflicting many of the known densities is that they depend on size estimates from thermal emission observations, with large model-dependent uncertainties that dominate the error bars on density estimates. Stellar occultations can provide much more accurate sizes and thus densities, but they depend on fortuitous geometry and thus can only be done for a few particularly valuable binaries. We propose observations of a system where an accurate density can be determined: 229762 2007 UK126. An accurate size is already available from multiple stellar occultation chords. This proposal will determine the mass, and thus the density.

Adaptive nest clustering and density-dependent nest survival in dabbling ducks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ringelman, Kevin M.; Eadie, John M.; Ackerman, Joshua T.

2014-01-01

Density-dependent population regulation is observed in many taxa, and understanding the mechanisms that generate density dependence is especially important for the conservation of heavily-managed species. In one such system, North American waterfowl, density dependence is often observed at continental scales, and nest predation has long been implicated as a key factor driving this pattern. However, despite extensive research on this topic, it remains unclear if and how nest density influences predation rates. Part of this confusion may have arisen because previous studies have studied density-dependent predation at relatively large spatial and temporal scales. Because the spatial distribution of nests changes throughout the season, which potentially influences predator behavior, nest survival may vary through time at relatively small spatial scales. As such, density-dependent nest predation might be more detectable at a spatially- and temporally-refined scale and this may provide new insights into nest site selection and predator foraging behavior. Here, we used three years of data on nest survival of two species of waterfowl, mallards and gadwall, to more fully explore the relationship between local nest clustering and nest survival. Throughout the season, we found that the distribution of nests was consistently clustered at small spatial scales (˜50–400 m), especially for mallard nests, and that this pattern was robust to yearly variation in nest density and the intensity of predation. We demonstrated further that local nest clustering had positive fitness consequences – nests with closer nearest neighbors were more likely to be successful, a result that is counter to the general assumption that nest predation rates increase with nest density.

Modeling the Response of Anopheles gambiae (Diptera: Culicidae) Populations in the Kenya Highlands to a Rise in Mean Annual Temperature.

PubMed

Wallace, Dorothy; Prosper, Olivia; Savos, Jacob; Dunham, Ann M; Chipman, Jonathan W; Shi, Xun; Ndenga, Bryson; Githeko, Andrew

2017-03-01

A dynamical model of Anopheles gambiae larval and adult populations is constructed that matches temperature-dependent maturation times and mortality measured experimentally as well as larval instar and adult mosquito emergence data from field studies in the Kenya Highlands. Spectral classification of high-resolution satellite imagery is used to estimate household density. Indoor resting densities collected over a period of one year combined with predictions of the dynamical model give estimates of both aquatic habitat and total adult mosquito densities. Temperature and precipitation patterns are derived from monthly records. Precipitation patterns are compared with average and extreme habitat estimates to estimate available aquatic habitat in an annual cycle. These estimates are coupled with the original model to produce estimates of adult and larval populations dependent on changing aquatic carrying capacity for larvae and changing maturation and mortality dependent on temperature. This paper offers a general method for estimating the total area of aquatic habitat in a given region, based on larval counts, emergence rates, indoor resting density data, and number of households.Altering the average daily temperature and the average daily rainfall simulates the effect of climate change on annual cycles of prevalence of An. gambiae adults. We show that small increases in average annual temperature have a large impact on adult mosquito density, whether measured at model equilibrium values for a single square meter of habitat or tracked over the course of a year of varying habitat availability and temperature. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Adaptive Significance of Quorum Sensing-Dependent Regulation of Rhamnolipids by Integration of Growth Rate in Burkholderia glumae: A Trade-Off between Survival and Efficiency.

PubMed

Nickzad, Arvin; Déziel, Eric

2016-01-01

Quorum sensing (QS) is a cell density-dependent mechanism which enables a population of bacteria to coordinate cooperative behaviors in response to the accumulation of self-produced autoinducer signals in their local environment. An emerging framework is that the adaptive significance of QS in the regulation of production of costly extracellular metabolites ("public goods") is to maintain the homeostasis of cooperation. We investigated this model using the phytopathogenic bacterium Burkholderia glumae, which we have previously demonstrated uses QS to regulate the production of rhamnolipids, extracellular surface-active glycolipids promoting the social behavior called "swarming motility." Using mass spectrometric quantification and chromosomal lux-based gene expression, we made the unexpected finding that when unrestricted nutrient resources are provided, production of rhamnolipids is carried out completely independently of QS regulation. This is a unique observation among known QS-controlled factors in bacteria. On the other hand, under nutrient-limited conditions, QS then becomes the main regulating mechanism, significantly enhancing the specific rhamnolipids yield. Accordingly, decreasing nutrient concentrations amplifies rhamnolipid biosynthesis gene expression, revealing a system where QS-dependent regulation is specifically triggered by the growth rate of the population, rather than by its cell density. Furthermore, a gradual increase in QS signal specific concentration upon decrease of specific growth rate suggests a reduction in quorum threshold, which reflects an increase in cellular demand for production of QS-dependent target gene product at low density populations. Integration of growth rate with QS as a decision-making mechanism for biosynthesis of costly metabolites, such as rhamnolipids, could serve to assess the demand and timing for expanding the carrying capacity of a population through spatial expansion mechanisms, such as swarming motility, thus promoting the chances of survival, even if the cell density might not be high enough for an otherwise efficient production of rhamnolipids. In conclusion, we propose that the adaptive significance of growth rate-dependent functionality of QS in biosynthesis of costly public goods lies within providing a regulatory mechanism for selecting the optimal trade-off between survival and efficiency.

Predicting the response of populations to environmental change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ives, A.R.

1995-04-01

When subject to long-term directional environmental perturbations, changes in population densities depend on the positive and negative feedbacks operating through interactions within and among species in a community. This paper develops techniques to predict the long-term responses of population densities to environmental changes using data on short-term population fluctuations driven by short-term environmental variability. In addition to giving quantitative predictions, the techniques also reveal how different qualitative patterns of species interactions either buffer or accentuate population responses to environmental trends. All of the predictions are based on regression coefficients extracted from time series data, and they can therefore be appliedmore » with a minimum of mathematical and statistical gymnastics. 48 refs., 10 figs., 4 tabs.« less

On the effects of nonlinear boundary conditions in diffusive logistic equations on bounded domains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cantrell, Robert Stephen; Cosner, Chris

We study a diffusive logistic equation with nonlinear boundary conditions. The equation arises as a model for a population that grows logistically inside a patch and crosses the patch boundary at a rate that depends on the population density. Specifically, the rate at which the population crosses the boundary is assumed to decrease as the density of the population increases. The model is motivated by empirical work on the Glanville fritillary butterfly. We derive local and global bifurcation results which show that the model can have multiple equilibria and in some parameter ranges can support Allee effects. The analysis leads to eigenvalue problems with nonstandard boundary conditions.

Allee effect and the uncertainty of population recovery.

PubMed

Kuparinen, Anna; Keith, David M; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

2014-06-01

Recovery of depleted populations is fundamentally important for conservation biology and sustainable resource harvesting. At low abundance, population growth rate, a primary determinant of population recovery, is generally assumed to be relatively fast because competition is low (i.e., negative density dependence). But population growth can be limited in small populations by an Allee effect. This is particularly relevant for collapsed populations or species that have not recovered despite large reductions in, or elimination of, threats. We investigated how an Allee effect can influence the dynamics of recovery. We used Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) as the study organism and an empirically quantified Allee effect for the species to parameterize our simulations. We simulated recovery through an individual-based mechanistic simulation model and then compared recovery among scenarios incorporating an Allee effect, negative density dependence, and an intermediate scenario. Although an Allee effect significantly slowed recovery, such that population increase could be negligible even after 100 years or more, it also made the time required for biomass rebuilding much less predictable. Our finding that an Allee effect greatly increased the uncertainty in recovery time frames provides an empirically based explanation for why the removal of threat does not always result in the recovery of depleted populations or species. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Cell density dependence of Microcystis aeruginosa responses to copper algaecide concentrations: Implications for microcystin-LR release.

PubMed

Kinley, Ciera M; Iwinski, Kyla J; Hendrikse, Maas; Geer, Tyler D; Rodgers, John H

2017-11-01

Along with mechanistic models, predictions of exposure-response relationships for copper are often derived from laboratory toxicity experiments with standardized experimental exposures and conditions. For predictions of copper toxicity to algae, cell density is a critical factor often overlooked. For pulse exposures of copper-based algaecides in aquatic systems, cell density can significantly influence copper sorbed by the algal population, and consequent responses. A cyanobacterium, Microcystis aeruginosa, was exposed to a copper-based algaecide over a range of cell densities to model the density-dependence of exposures, and effects on microcystin-LR (MC-LR) release. Copper exposure concentrations were arrayed to result in a gradient of MC-LR release, and masses of copper sorbed to algal populations were measured following exposures. While copper exposure concentrations eliciting comparable MC-LR release ranged an order of magnitude (24-h EC50s 0.03-0.3mg Cu/L) among cell densities of 10 6 through 10 7 cells/mL, copper doses (mg Cu/mg algae) were similar (24-h EC50s 0.005-0.006mg Cu/mg algae). Comparisons of MC-LR release as a function of copper exposure concentrations and doses provided a metric of the density dependence of algal responses in the context of copper-based algaecide applications. Combined with estimates of other site-specific factors (e.g. water characteristics) and fate processes (e.g. dilution and dispersion, sorption to organic matter and sediments), measuring exposure-response relationships for specific cell densities can refine predictions for in situ exposures and algal responses. These measurements can in turn decrease the likelihood of amending unnecessary copper concentrations to aquatic systems, and minimize risks for non-target aquatic organisms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Size Dependence of S-bonding on (111) Facets of Cu Nanoclusters

DOE PAGES

Boschen, Jeffery S.; Lee, Jiyoung; Windus, Theresa L.; ...

2016-04-21

We demonstrate a strong damped oscillatory size dependence of the adsorption energy for sulfur on the (111) facets of tetrahedral Cu nanoclusters up to sizes of ~300 atoms. This behavior reflects quantum size effects. Consistent results are obtained from density functional theory analyses utilizing either atomic orbital or plane-wave bases and using the same Perdew–Burke–Ernzerhof functional. Behavior is interpreted via molecular orbitals (MO), density of states (DOS), and crystal orbital Hamilton population (COHP) analyses.

Density-Dependent Recycling Promotes the Long-Term Survival of Bacterial Populations during Periods of Starvation.

PubMed

Takano, Sotaro; Pawlowska, Bogna J; Gudelj, Ivana; Yomo, Tetsuya; Tsuru, Saburo

2017-02-07

The amount of natural resources in the Earth's environment is in flux, which can trigger catastrophic collapses of ecosystems. How populations survive under nutrient-poor conditions is a central question in ecology. Curiously, some bacteria persist for a long time in nutrient-poor environments. Although this survival may be accomplished through cell death and the recycling of dead cells, the importance of these processes and the mechanisms underlying the survival of the populations have not been quantitated. Here, we use microbial laboratory experiments and mathematical models to demonstrate that death and recycling are essential activities for the maintenance of cell survival. We also show that the behavior of the survivors is governed by population density feedback, wherein growth is limited not only by the available resources but also by the population density. The numerical simulations suggest that population density-dependent recycling could be an advantageous behavior under starvation conditions. How organisms survive after exhaustion of resources is a central question in ecology. Starving Escherichia coli constitute a model system to understand survival mechanisms during long-term starvation. Although death and the recycling of dead cells might play a key role in the maintenance of long-term survival, their mechanisms and importance have not been quantitated. Here, we verified the significance of social recycling of dead cells for long-term survival. We also show that the survivors restrained their recycling and did not use all available nutrients released from dead cells, which may be advantageous under starvation conditions. These results indicate that not only the utilization of dead cells but also restrained recycling coordinate the effective utilization of limited resources for long-term survival under starvation. Copyright © 2017 Takano et al.

Density dependence and climate effects in Rocky Mountain elk: an application of regression with instrumental variables for population time series with sampling error.

PubMed

Creel, Scott; Creel, Michael

2009-11-01

1. Sampling error in annual estimates of population size creates two widely recognized problems for the analysis of population growth. First, if sampling error is mistakenly treated as process error, one obtains inflated estimates of the variation in true population trajectories (Staples, Taper & Dennis 2004). Second, treating sampling error as process error is thought to overestimate the importance of density dependence in population growth (Viljugrein et al. 2005; Dennis et al. 2006). 2. In ecology, state-space models are used to account for sampling error when estimating the effects of density and other variables on population growth (Staples et al. 2004; Dennis et al. 2006). In econometrics, regression with instrumental variables is a well-established method that addresses the problem of correlation between regressors and the error term, but requires fewer assumptions than state-space models (Davidson & MacKinnon 1993; Cameron & Trivedi 2005). 3. We used instrumental variables to account for sampling error and fit a generalized linear model to 472 annual observations of population size for 35 Elk Management Units in Montana, from 1928 to 2004. We compared this model with state-space models fit with the likelihood function of Dennis et al. (2006). We discuss the general advantages and disadvantages of each method. Briefly, regression with instrumental variables is valid with fewer distributional assumptions, but state-space models are more efficient when their distributional assumptions are met. 4. Both methods found that population growth was negatively related to population density and winter snow accumulation. Summer rainfall and wolf (Canis lupus) presence had much weaker effects on elk (Cervus elaphus) dynamics [though limitation by wolves is strong in some elk populations with well-established wolf populations (Creel et al. 2007; Creel & Christianson 2008)]. 5. Coupled with predictions for Montana from global and regional climate models, our results predict a substantial reduction in the limiting effect of snow accumulation on Montana elk populations in the coming decades. If other limiting factors do not operate with greater force, population growth rates would increase substantially.

Rapid genetic restoration of a keystone species exhibiting delayed demographic response.

PubMed

Cosentino, Bradley J; Schooley, Robert L; Bestelmeyer, Brandon T; McCarthy, Alison J; Sierzega, Kevin

2015-12-01

Genetic founder effects are often expected when animals colonize restored habitat in fragmented landscapes, but empirical data on genetic responses to restoration are limited. We examined the genetic response of banner-tailed kangaroo rats (Dipodomys spectabilis) to landscape-scale grassland restoration in the Chihuahuan Desert of New Mexico, USA. Dipodomys spectabilis is a grassland specialist and keystone species. At sites treated with herbicide to remove shrubs, colonization by D. spectabilis is slow and populations persist at low density for ≥10 years (≥6 generations). Persistence at low density and low gene flow may cause strong founder effects. We compared genetic structure of D. spectabilis populations between treated sites and remnant grasslands, and we examined how the genetic response to restoration depended on treatment age, area, and connectivity to source populations. Allelic richness and heterozygosity were similar between treated sites and remnant grasslands. Allelic richness at treated sites was greatest early in the restoration trajectory, and genetic divergence did not differ between recently colonized and established populations. These results indicated that founder effects during colonization of treated sites were weak or absent. Moreover, our results suggested founder effects were not mitigated by treatment area or connectivity. Dispersal is negatively density-dependent in D. spectabilis, and we hypothesize that high gene flow may occur early in the restoration trajectory when density is low. Our study shows genetic diversity can be recovered more rapidly than demographic components of populations after habitat restoration and that founder effects are not inevitable for animals colonizing restored habitat in fragmented landscapes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Matrix Population Model for Estimating Effects from Time-Varying Aquatic Exposures: Technical Documentation

EPA Science Inventory

The Office of Pesticide Programs models daily aquatic pesticide exposure values for 30 years in its risk assessments. However, only a fraction of that information is typically used in these assessments. The population model employed herein is a deterministic, density-dependent pe...

Facilitation in Caribbean coral reefs: high densities of staghorn coral foster greater coral condition and reef fish composition.

PubMed

Huntington, Brittany E; Miller, Margaret W; Pausch, Rachel; Richter, Lee

2017-05-01

Recovery of the threatened staghorn coral (Acropora cervicornis) is posited to play a key role in Caribbean reef resilience. At four Caribbean locations (including one restored and three extant populations), we quantified characteristics of contemporary staghorn coral across increasing conspecific densities, and investigated a hypothesis of facilitation between staghorn coral and reef fishes. High staghorn densities in the Dry Tortugas exhibited significantly less partial mortality, higher branch growth, and supported greater fish abundances compared to lower densities within the same population. In contrast, partial mortality, branch growth, and fish community composition did not vary with staghorn density at the three other study locations where staghorn densities were lower overall. This suggests that density-dependent effects between the coral and fish community may only manifest at high staghorn densities. We then evaluated one facilitative mechanism for such density-dependence, whereby abundant fishes sheltering in dense staghorn aggregations deliver nutrients back to the coral, fueling faster coral growth, thereby creating more fish habitat. Indeed, dense staghorn aggregations within the Dry Tortugas exhibited significantly higher growth rates, tissue nitrogen, and zooxanthellae densities than sparse aggregations. Similarly, higher tissue nitrogen was induced in a macroalgae bioassay outplanted into the same dense and sparse aggregations, confirming greater bioavailability of nutrients at high staghorn densities. Our findings inform staghorn restoration efforts, suggesting that the most effective targets may be higher coral densities than previously thought. These coral-dense aggregations may reap the benefits of positive facilitation between the staghorn and fish community, favoring the growth and survivorship of this threatened species.

Different populations of Wnt-containing vesicles are individually released from polarized epithelial cells

PubMed Central

Chen, Qiuhong; Takada, Ritsuko; Noda, Chiyo; Kobayashi, Satoru; Takada, Shinji

2016-01-01

Accumulating evidence suggests that exosomes are heterogeneous in molecular composition and physical properties. Here we examined whether epithelial cells secrete a heterogeneous population of exosomes, and if that is the case, whether epithelial cell polarity affects release of different populations of exosomes, especially that of those carrying Wnt. Sucrose-density ultracentrifugation and molecular marker analysis revealed that different populations of exosomes or exosome-like vesicles were released from MDCK cells depending on the cell polarity. Wnt3a associated with these vesicles were detectable in culture media collected from both apical and basolateral sides of the cells. Basolaterally secreted Wnt3a were co-fractionated with a typical exosomal protein TSG101 in fractions having typical exosome densities. In contrast, most of apically secreted Wnt3a, as well as Wnt11, were co-fractionated with CD63 and Hsp70, which are also common to the most exosomes, but recovered in higher density fractions. Wnt3a exhibiting similar floatation behavior to the apically secreted ones were also detectable in the culture media of Wnt3a-expressing L and HEK293 cells. The lipidation of Wnt3a was required for its basolateral secretion in exosomes but was dispensable for the apical one. Thus, epithelial cells release Wnt via distinct populations of vesicles differing in secretion polarity and lipidation dependency. PMID:27765945

Density-dependent vulnerability of forest ecosystems to drought

Treesearch

Alessandra Bottero; Anthony W. D' Amato; Brian J. Palik; John B. Bradford; Shawn Fraver; Mike A. Battaglia; Lance A. Asherin; Harald Bugmann

2017-01-01

Climate models predict increasing drought intensity and frequency for many regions, which may have negative consequences for tree recruitment, growth and mortality, as well as forest ecosystem services. Furthermore, practical strategies for minimizing vulnerability to drought are limited. Tree population density, a metric of tree abundance in a given area, is a primary...

Effects of host plant and larval density on intraspecific competition in larvae of the Emerald Ash Borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In many insects, competition for food, mate, and/or space among different individuals of the same species is a pervasive phenomenon with ecological consequences such as density-dependent regulation of insect abundance or population dynamics. The emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Col...

Mate Limitation in Fungal Plant Parasites Can Lead to Cyclic Epidemics in Perennial Host Populations.

PubMed

Ravigné, Virginie; Lemesle, Valérie; Walter, Alicia; Mailleret, Ludovic; Hamelin, Frédéric M

2017-03-01

Fungal plant parasites represent a growing concern for biodiversity and food security. Most ascomycete species are capable of producing different types of infectious spores both asexually and sexually. Yet the contributions of both types of spores to epidemiological dynamics have still to been fully researched. Here we studied the effect of mate limitation in parasites which perform both sexual and asexual reproduction in the same host. Since mate limitation implies positive density dependence at low population density, we modeled the dynamics of such species with both density-dependent (sexual) and density-independent (asexual) transmission rates. A first simple SIR model incorporating these two types of transmission from the infected compartment, suggested that combining sexual and asexual spore production can generate persistently cyclic epidemics in a significant part of the parameter space. It was then confirmed that cyclic persistence could occur in realistic situations by parameterizing a more detailed model fitting the biology of the Black Sigatoka disease of banana, for which literature data are available. We discuss the implications of these results for research on and management of Sigatoka diseases of banana.

High population density of black-handed spider monkeys (Ateles geoffroyi) in Costa Rican lowland wet forest.

PubMed

Weghorst, Jennifer A

2007-04-01

The main objective of this study was to estimate the population density and demographic structure of spider monkeys living in wet forest in the vicinity of Sirena Biological Station, Corcovado National Park, Costa Rica. Results of a 14-month line-transect survey showed that spider monkeys of Sirena have one of the highest population densities ever recorded for this genus. Density estimates varied, however, depending on the method chosen to estimate transect width. Data from behavioral monitoring were available to compare density estimates derived from the survey, providing a check of the survey's accuracy. A combination of factors has most probably contributed to the high density of Ateles, including habitat protection within a national park and high diversity of trees of the fig family, Moraceae. Although natural densities of spider monkeys at Sirena are substantially higher than those recorded at most other sites and in previous studies at this site, mean subgroup size and age ratios were similar to those determined in previous studies. Sex ratios were similar to those of other sites with high productivity. Although high densities of preferred fruit trees in the wet, productive forests of Sirena may support a dense population of spider monkeys, other demographic traits recorded at Sirena fall well within the range of values recorded elsewhere for the species.

[Are simple time lags responsible for cyclic variation of population density? : A comparison of laboratory population dynamics of Brachionus calyciflorus pallas (rotatoria) with computer simulations].

PubMed

Halbach, Udo; Burkhardt, Heinz Jürgen

1972-09-01

Laboratory populations of the rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus were cultured at different temperatures (25, 20, 15°C) but otherwise at constant conditions. The population densities showed relatively constant oscillations (Figs. 1 to 3A-C). Amplitudes and frequencies of the oscillations were positively correlated with temperature (Table 1). A test was made, whether the logistic growth function with simple time lag is able to describe the population curves. There are strong similarities between the simulations (Figs. 1-3E) and the real population dynamics if minor adjustments of the empirically determined parameters are made. There-fore it is suggested that time lags are responsible for the observed oscillations. However, the actual time lags probably do not act in the simple manner of the model, because birth and death rates react with different time lags, and both parameters are dependent on individual age and population density. A more complex model, which incorporates these modifications, should lead to a more realistic description of the observed oscillations.

The phenology of space: Spatial aspects of bison density dependence in Yellowstone National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taper, M.L.; Meagher, M.; Jerde, C.L.

2000-01-01

The Yellowstone bison represent the only bison population in the United States that survived in the wild the near-extermination of the late 1800's. This paper capitalizes on a unique opportunity provided by the record of the bison population of Yellowstone National Park (YNP). This population has been intensely monitored for almost four decades. The analysis of long-term spatio-temporal data from 1970-1997 supports the following conclusions. 1) Even though the Yellowstone bison herd exhibits an extended period of what appears to be linear growth, this pattern can be explained with classical density dependent dynamics if one realizes that perhaps the primary response of the herd to increased density is range expansion. 2) Several spatial aspects of social behavior in the YNP bison may be behavioral adaptations by the bison to environmental changes. These behavioral strategies may buffer, temporarily at least, bison population dynamics from the immediate repercussions of possible environmental stress and habitat deterioration. 3) Bison ecological carrying capacity for YNP is on the order of 2800 to 3200 animals. 4) There do appear to be indications of changes in the bison dynamics that are associated with increasing use of sections of the interior road system in winter. 5) The possibility of habitat degradation is indicated.

Development of an adaptive harvest management program for Taiga bean geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Fred A.; Alhainen, Mikko; Fox, Anthony D.; Madsen, Jesper

2016-01-01

This report describes recent progress in specifying the elements of an adaptive harvest program for taiga bean goose. It describes harvest levels appropriate for first rebuilding the population of the Central Management Unit and then maintaining it near the goal specified in the AEWA International Single Species Action Plan (ISSAP). This report also provides estimates of the length of time it would take under ideal conditions (no density dependence and no harvest) to rebuild depleted populations in the Western and Eastern Management Units. We emphasize that our estimates are a first approximation because detailed demographic information is lacking for taiga bean geese. Using allometric relationships, we estimated parameters of a thetalogistic matrix population model. The mean intrinsic rate of growth was estimated as r = 0.150 (90% credible interval: 0.120 – 0.182). We estimated the mean form of density dependence as   2.361 (90% credible interval: 0.473 – 11.778), suggesting the strongest density dependence occurs when the population is near its carrying capacity. Based on expert opinion, carrying capacity (i.e., population size expected in the absence of hunting) for the Central Management Unit was estimated as K  87,900 (90% credible interval: 82,000 – 94,100). The ISSAP specifies a population goal for the Central Management Unit of 60,000 – 80,000 individuals in winter; thus, we specified a preliminary objective function as one which would minimize the difference between this goal and population size. Using the concept of stochastic dominance to explicitly account for uncertainty in demography, we determined that optimal harvest rates for 5, 10, 15, and 20-year time horizons were h = 0.00, 0.02, 0.05, and 0.06, respectively. These optima represent a tradeoff between the harvest rate and the time required to achieve and maintain a population size within desired bounds. We recognize, however, that regulation of absolute harvest rather than harvest rate is more practical, but our matrix model does not permit one to calculate an exact harvest associated with a specific harvest rate. Approximate harvests for current population size in the Central Management Unit are 0, 1,200, 2,300, and 3,500 for the 5, 10, 15, and 20-year time horizons, respectively. Populations of taiga bean geese in the Western and Eastern Units would require at least 10 and 13 years, respectively, to reach their minimum goals under the most optimistic of scenarios. The presence of harvest, density dependence, or environmental variation could extend these time frames considerably. Finally, we stress that development and implementation of internationally coordinated monitoring programs will be essential to further development and implementation of an adaptive harvest management program.

Evolutionary stability of mutualism: interspecific population regulation as an evolutionarily stable strategy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Schultz, Stewart T.

2004-01-01

Interspecific mutualisms are often vulnerable to instability because low benefit : cost ratios can rapidly lead to extinction or to the conversion of mutualism to parasite–host or predator–prey interactions. We hypothesize that the evolutionary stability of mutualism can depend on how benefits and costs to one mutualist vary with the population density of its partner, and that stability can be maintained if a mutualist can influence demographic rates and regulate the population density of its partner. We test this hypothesis in a model of mutualism with key features of senita cactus (Pachycereus schottii) – senita moth (Upiga virescens) interactions, in which benefits of pollination and costs of larval seed consumption to plant fitness depend on pollinator density. We show that plants can maximize their fitness by allocating resources to the production of excess flowers at the expense of fruit. Fruit abortion resulting from excess flower production reduces pre–adult survival of the pollinating seed–consumer, and maintains its density beneath a threshold that would destabilize the mutualism. Such a strategy of excess flower production and fruit abortion is convergent and evolutionarily stable against invasion by cheater plants that produce few flowers and abort few to no fruit. This novel mechanism of achieving evolutionarily stable mutualism, namely interspecific population regulation, is qualitatively different from other mechanisms invoking partner choice or selective rewards, and may be a general process that helps to preserve mutualistic interactions in nature.

Roles of density-dependent growth and life history evolution in accounting for fisheries-induced trait changes.

PubMed

Eikeset, Anne Maria; Dunlop, Erin S; Heino, Mikko; Storvik, Geir; Stenseth, Nils C; Dieckmann, Ulf

2016-12-27

The relative roles of density dependence and life history evolution in contributing to rapid fisheries-induced trait changes remain debated. In the 1930s, northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua), currently the world's largest cod stock, experienced a shift from a traditional spawning-ground fishery to an industrial trawl fishery with elevated exploitation in the stock's feeding grounds. Since then, age and length at maturation have declined dramatically, a trend paralleled in other exploited stocks worldwide. These trends can be explained by demographic truncation of the population's age structure, phenotypic plasticity in maturation arising through density-dependent growth, fisheries-induced evolution favoring faster-growing or earlier-maturing fish, or a combination of these processes. Here, we use a multitrait eco-evolutionary model to assess the capacity of these processes to reproduce 74 y of historical data on age and length at maturation in northeast Arctic cod, while mimicking the stock's historical harvesting regime. Our results show that model predictions critically depend on the assumed density dependence of growth: when this is weak, life history evolution might be necessary to prevent stock collapse, whereas when a stronger density dependence estimated from recent data is used, the role of evolution in explaining fisheries-induced trait changes is diminished. Our integrative analysis of density-dependent growth, multitrait evolution, and stock-specific time series data underscores the importance of jointly considering evolutionary and ecological processes, enabling a more comprehensive perspective on empirically observed stock dynamics than previous studies could provide.

Effects of host-plant population size and plant sex on a specialist leaf-miner

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bañuelos, María-José; Kollmann, Johannes

2011-03-01

Animal population density has been related to resource patch size through various hypotheses such as those derived from island biogeography and resource concentration theory. This theoretical framework can be also applied to plant-herbivore interactions, and it can be modified by the sex of the host-plant, and density-dependent relationships. Leaf-miners are specialised herbivores that leave distinct traces on infested leaves in the form of egg scars, mines, signs of predation and emergence holes. This allows the life cycle of the insect to be reconstructed and the success at the different stages to be estimated. The main stages of the leaf-miner Phytomyza ilicis were recorded in eleven populations of the evergreen host Ilex aquifolium in Denmark. Survival rates were calculated and related to population size, sex of the host plant, and egg and mine densities. Host population size was negatively related to leaf-miner prevalence, with larger egg and mine densities in small populations. Percentage of eggs hatching and developing into mines, and percentage of adult flies emerging from mines also differed among host populations, but were not related to population size or host cover. Feeding punctures left by adults were marginally more frequent on male plants, whereas egg scars and mines were more common on females. Overall survival rate from egg stage to adult emergence was higher on female plants. Egg density was negatively correlated with hatching, while mine density was positively correlated with emergence of the larvae. The inverse effects of host population size were not in line with predictions based on island biogeography and resource concentration theory. We discuss how a thorough knowledge of the immigration behaviour of this fly might help to understand the patterns found.

Bumble bee nest abundance, foraging distance, and host-plant reproduction: implications for management and conservation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Recent reports of global declines in pollinator species imply an urgent need to assess native pollinator population sizes and density dependent benefits for linked plants. Here, we estimated effective population sizes (Ne) of four native bumblebee species, Bombus balteatus, B. flavifrons, B. bifariu...

Socio-Demographic Determinants of Economic Growth: Age-Structure, Preindustrial Heritage and Sociolinguistic Integration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crenshaw, Edward; Robison, Kristopher

2010-01-01

This study establishes a socio-demographic theory of international development derived from selected classical and contemporary sociological theories. Four hypotheses are tested: (1. population growth's effect on development depends on age-structure; (2. historic population density (used here as an indicator of preindustrial social complexity)…

The evolutionary and behavioral modification of consumer responses to environmental change.

PubMed

Abrams, Peter A

2014-02-21

How will evolution or other forms of adaptive change alter the response of a consumer species' population density to environmentally driven changes in population growth parameters? This question is addressed by analyzing some simple consumer-resource models to separate the ecological and evolutionary components of the population's response. Ecological responses are always decreased population size, but evolution of traits that have effects on both resource uptake rate and another fitness-related parameter may magnify, offset, or reverse this population decrease. Evolution can change ecologically driven decreases in population size to increases; this is likely when: (1) resources are initially below the density that maximizes resource growth, and (2) the evolutionary response decreases the consumer's resource uptake rate. Evolutionary magnification of the ecological decreases in population size can occur when the environmental change is higher trait-independent mortality. Such evolution-driven decreases are most likely when uptake-rate traits increase and the resource is initially below its maximum growth density. It is common for the difference between the new eco-evolutionary equilibrium and the new ecological equilibrium to be larger than that between the original and new ecological equilibrium densities. The relative magnitudes of ecological and evolutionary effects often depend sensitively on the magnitude of the environmental change and the nature of resource growth. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolution of increased adult longevity in Drosophila melanogaster populations selected for adaptation to larval crowding.

PubMed

Shenoi, V N; Ali, S Z; Prasad, N G

2016-02-01

In holometabolous animals such as Drosophila melanogaster, larval crowding can affect a wide range of larval and adult traits. Adults emerging from high larval density cultures have smaller body size and increased mean life span compared to flies emerging from low larval density cultures. Therefore, adaptation to larval crowding could potentially affect adult longevity as a correlated response. We addressed this issue by studying a set of large, outbred populations of D. melanogaster, experimentally evolved for adaptation to larval crowding for 83 generations. We assayed longevity of adult flies from both selected (MCUs) and control populations (MBs) after growing them at different larval densities. We found that MCUs have evolved increased mean longevity compared to MBs at all larval densities. The interaction between selection regime and larval density was not significant, indicating that the density dependence of mean longevity had not evolved in the MCU populations. The increase in longevity in MCUs can be partially attributed to their lower rates of ageing. It is also noteworthy that reaction norm of dry body weight, a trait probably under direct selection in our populations, has indeed evolved in MCU populations. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of the evolution of adult longevity as a correlated response of adaptation to larval crowding. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Development and application of a density dependent matrix ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Ranging along the Atlantic coast from US Florida to the Maritime Provinces of Canada, the Atlantic killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) is an important and well-studied model organism for understanding the effects of pollutants and other stressors in estuarine and marine ecosystems. Matrix population models are useful tools for ecological risk assessment because they integrate effects across the life cycle, provide a linkage between endpoints observed in the individual and ecological risk to the population as a whole, and project outcomes for many generations in the future. We developed a density dependent matrix population model for Atlantic killifish by modifying a model developed for fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) that has proved to be extremely useful, e.g. to incorporate data from laboratory studies and project effects of endocrine disrupting chemicals. We developed a size-structured model (as opposed to one that is based upon developmental stages or age class structure) so that we could readily incorporate output from a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model, currently under development. Due to a lack of sufficient data to accurately define killifish responses to density dependence, we tested a number of scenarios realistic for other fish species in order to demonstrate the outcome of including this ecologically important factor. We applied the model using published data for killifish exposed to dioxin-like compounds, and compared our results to those using

Ecological change points: The strength of density dependence and the loss of history.

PubMed

Ponciano, José M; Taper, Mark L; Dennis, Brian

2018-05-01

Change points in the dynamics of animal abundances have extensively been recorded in historical time series records. Little attention has been paid to the theoretical dynamic consequences of such change-points. Here we propose a change-point model of stochastic population dynamics. This investigation embodies a shift of attention from the problem of detecting when a change will occur, to another non-trivial puzzle: using ecological theory to understand and predict the post-breakpoint behavior of the population dynamics. The proposed model and the explicit expressions derived here predict and quantify how density dependence modulates the influence of the pre-breakpoint parameters into the post-breakpoint dynamics. Time series transitioning from one stationary distribution to another contain information about where the process was before the change-point, where is it heading and how long it will take to transition, and here this information is explicitly stated. Importantly, our results provide a direct connection of the strength of density dependence with theoretical properties of dynamic systems, such as the concept of resilience. Finally, we illustrate how to harness such information through maximum likelihood estimation for state-space models, and test the model robustness to widely different forms of compensatory dynamics. The model can be used to estimate important quantities in the theory and practice of population recovery. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Metabolism drives distribution and abundance in extremophile fish

PubMed Central

McHugh, Peter A.; Glover, Chris N.; McIntosh, Angus R.

2017-01-01

Differences in population density between species of varying size are frequently attributed to metabolic rates which are assumed to scale with body size with a slope of 0.75. This assumption is often criticised on the grounds that 0.75 scaling of metabolic rate with body size is not universal and can vary significantly depending on species and life-history. However, few studies have investigated how interspecific variation in metabolic scaling relationships affects population density in different sized species. Here we predict inter-specific differences in metabolism from niche requirements, thereby allowing metabolic predictions of species distribution and abundance at fine spatial scales. Due to the differences in energetic efficiency required along harsh-benign gradients, an extremophile fish (brown mudfish, Neochanna apoda) living in harsh environments had slower metabolism, and thus higher population densities, compared to a fish species (banded kōkopu, Galaxias fasciatus) in physiologically more benign habitats. Interspecific differences in the intercepts for the relationship between body and density disappeared when species mass-specific metabolic rates, rather than body sizes, were used to predict density, implying population energy use was equivalent between mudfish and kōkopu. Nevertheless, despite significant interspecific differences in the slope of the metabolic scaling relationships, mudfish and kōkopu had a common slope for the relationship between body size and population density. These results support underlying logic of energetic equivalence between different size species implicit in metabolic theory. However, the precise slope of metabolic scaling relationships, which is the subject of much debate, may not be a reliable indicator of population density as expected under metabolic theory. PMID:29176819

Regulation of an unexploited brown trout population in Spruce Creek, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carline, R.F.

2006-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to describe the annual variations in the density of an unexploited population of lotic brown trout Salmo trutta that has been censused annually for 19 years and to explore the importance of density-independent and density-dependent processes in regulating population size. Brown trout density and indices of stream discharge and water temperature were related to annual variations in natural mortality, recruitment, and growth. Annual mortality of age-1 and older (age-1+) brown trout ranged from 0.30 to 0.75 and was best explained by discharge during spring and by brown trout density. Recruitment to age 1 varied fivefold. Density of age-1 brown trout was inversely related to spawner density and positively related to discharge during the fall spawning period. The median length of age-1 brown trout was positively related to discharge during summer and fall. Relative weight was inversely related to the density of age-2+ brown trout. The interactive effects of discharge and brown trout density accounted for most of the annual variation in mortality, recruitment, and growth during the first year of life. Annual trends in the abundance of age-1+ brown trout were largely dictated by natural mortality. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise.

PubMed

Hatfield, Jeff S; Reynolds, Michelle H; Seavy, Nathaniel E; Krause, Crystal M

2012-08-01

Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds. Conservation Biology ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original US government works.

Adaptive harvest management for the Svalbard population of pink-footed geese: assessment for the 2013-2015 hunting seasons

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Fred A.; Madsen, Jesper

2013-01-01

This report describes progress on the development of an adaptive harvestmanagement strategy for maintaining the Svalbard population of pink-footed geese near their agreed target level (60,000) by providing for sustainable harvests in Norway and Denmark. Specifically, this report provides an optimal harvest quota for the 2013-2015 hunting seasons and describes a process for evaluating whether emergency hunting closures would be needed during that period. By combining varying hypotheses about survival and reproduction, a suite of nine models have been developed that represent a wide range of possibilities concerning the extent to which demographic rates are density dependent or independent, and the extent to which spring temperatures are important. The most current set of monitoring information was used to update model weights for the 1991 – 2012 period. Current model weights suggest no evidence for density-dependent survival. These results suggest that the pink-footed goose population may have recently experienced a release from density-dependent mechanisms, corresponding to the period of most rapid growth in population size. There was equivocal evidence for the effect of May temperature days (number of days with temperatures above freezing) on survival and on reproduction. The optimal harvest strategy suggests that the appropriate annual harvest quota for the 20132015 period is 15,000; hence there is no need to take emergency measures to close the upcoming hunting season. For comparison, the estimated harvest in 2012 was 11,000. If the harvest quota of 15,000 were met, the autumn 2013 population count is expected to be 76,000. If only the most recent 3-year mean harvest were realized (11,500), an autumn population size of 80,000 thousand is expected. Thus, it may be that harvest is approaching the magnitude needed to stabilize the population.

Temporal dynamics of Puumala hantavirus infection in cyclic populations of bank voles.

PubMed

Voutilainen, Liina; Kallio, Eva R; Niemimaa, Jukka; Vapalahti, Olli; Henttonen, Heikki

2016-02-18

Understanding the dynamics of zoonotic pathogens in their reservoir host populations is a prerequisite for predicting and preventing human disease epidemics. The human infection risk of Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) is highest in northern Europe, where populations of the rodent host (bank vole, Myodes glareolus) undergo cyclic fluctuations. We conducted a 7-year capture-mark-recapture study to monitor seasonal and multiannual patterns of the PUUV infection rate in bank vole populations exhibiting a 3-year density cycle. Infected bank voles were most abundant in mid-winter months during years of increasing or peak host density. Prevalence of PUUV infection in bank voles exhibited a regular, seasonal pattern reflecting the annual population turnover and accumulation of infections within each year cohort. In autumn, the PUUV transmission rate tracked increasing host abundance, suggesting a density-dependent transmission. However, prevalence of PUUV infection was similar during the increase and peak years of the density cycle despite a twofold difference in host density. This may result from the high proportion of individuals carrying maternal antibodies constraining transmission during the cycle peak years. Our exceptionally intensive and long-term dataset provides a solid basis on which to develop models to predict the dynamic public health threat posed by PUUV in northern Europe.

Snow conditions as an estimator of the breeding output in high-Arctic pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jensen, Gitte Høj; Madsen, Jesper; Johnson, Fred A.; Tamstorf, Mikkel P.

2014-01-01

The Svalbard-breeding population of pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus has increased during the last decades and is giving rise to agricultural conflicts along their migration route, as well as causing grazing impacts on tundra vegetation. An adaptive flyway management plan has been implemented, which will be based on predictive population models including environmental variables expected to affect goose population development, such as weather conditions on the breeding grounds. A local study in Svalbard showed that snow cover prior to egg laying is a crucial factor for the reproductive output of pink-footed geese, and MODIS satellite images provided a useful estimator of snow cover. In this study, we up-scaled the analysis to the population level by examining various measures of snow conditions and compared them with the overall breeding success of the population as indexed by the proportion of juveniles in the autumn population. As explanatory variables, we explored MODIS images, satellite-based radar measures of onset of snow melt, winter NAO index, and the May temperature sum and May thaw days. To test for the presence of density dependence, we included the number of adults in the population. For 2000–2011, MODIS-derived snow cover (available since 2000) was the strongest indicator of breeding conditions. For 1981–2011, winter NAO and May thaw days had equal weight. Interestingly, there appears to have been a phase shift from density-dependent to density-independent reproduction, which is consistent with a hypothesis of released breeding potential due to the recent advancement of spring in Svalbard.

UC/MALDI-MS analysis of HDL; evidence for density-dependent post-translational modifications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Jeffery D.; Henriquez, Ronald R.; Tichy, Shane E.; Russell, David H.; McNeal, Catherine J.; Macfarlane, Ronald D.

2007-12-01

The purpose of this study is to determine whether the nature of the post-translational modifications of the major apolipoproteins of HDL is different for density-distinct subclasses. These subclasses were separated by ultracentrifugation using a novel density-forming solute to yield a high-resolution separation. The serum of two subjects, a control with a normolipidemic profile and a subject with diagnosed cardiovascular disease, was studied. Aliquots of three HDL subclasses were analyzed by MALDI and considerable differences were seen when comparing density-distinct subclasses and also when comparing the two subjects. A detailed analysis of the post-translational modification pattern of apoA-1 shows evidence of considerable protease activity, particularly in the more dense fractions. We conclude that part of the heterogeneity of the population of HDL particles is due to density-dependent protease activity.

Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

PubMed

Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

2014-11-01

Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10.5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean population size. Results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of a species over its range may be facilitated by taking the spatial structure of population size into account as well as by considering changes in population processes as a function of position within the range of the species. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Population Dynamics of Belonolaimus longicaudatusin a Cotton Production System

PubMed Central

Crow, W. T.; Weingartner, D. P.; McSorley, R.; Dickson, D. W.

2000-01-01

Belonolaimus longicaudatus is a recognized pathogen of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum), but insufficient information is available on the population dynamics and economic thresholds of B. longicaudatus in cotton production. In this study, data collected from a field in Florida were used to develop models predicting population increases of B. longicaudatus on cotton and population declines under clean fallow. Population densities of B. longicaudatus increased on cotton, reaching a carrying capacity of 139 nematodes/130 cm³ of soil, but decreased exponentially during periods of bare fallow. The model indicated that population densities should decrease each year of monocropped cotton, if an alternate host is not present between sequential cotton crops. Economic thresholds derived from published damage functions and current prices for cotton and nematicides varied from 2 to 5 B. longicaudatus/130 cm³ of soil, depending on the nematicide used. PMID:19270968

Application of the stage-projection model with density-dependent fecundity to the population dynamics of Spanish ibex

USGS Publications Warehouse

Escos, J.; Alados, C.L.; Emlen, John M.

1994-01-01

A stage-class population model with density-feedback term included was used to identify the most critical parameters determining the population dynamics of female Spanish ibex (Capra pyrenaica) in southern Spain. A population in the Cazorla and Segura mountains is rapidly declining, but the eastern Sierra Nevada population is growing. The stable population density obtained using estimated values of kid and adult survival (0.49 and 0.87, respectively) and with fecundity equal to 0.367 in the absence of density feedback is 12.7 or 16.82 individuals/km2, based on a non-time-lagged and a time-lagged model, respectively. Given the maximum estimate of fecundity and an adult survival rate of 0.87, a kid survival rate of at least 0.41 is required to avoid extinction. At the minimum fecundity estimate, kid survival would have to exceed 0.52. Elasticities were used to estimate the influence of variation in life-cycle parameters on the intrinsic rate of increase. Adult survival is the most critical parameter, while fecundity and juvenile survival are less important. An increase in adult survival from 0.87 to 0.91 in the Cazorla and Segura mountains population would almost stabilize the population in the absence of stochastic variation, while the same increase in the Sierra Nevada population would yield population growth of 4–5% per annum. A reduction in adult survival to 0.83 results in population decline in both cases.

Compensatory mortality in mule deer populations: Final technical report, January 1, 1985--December 31, 1988

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

White, G.C.

1989-03-01

The hypothesis of compensatory mortality is critical to understanding population dynamics of wildlife species. This knowledge is vital regardless of whether populations are managed for recreational hunting or habitats are altered via energy development projects. This research tested for compensatory mortality in the juvenile (fawn) portion of a mule deer population. Two experimental manipulations were used employing radio-collared deer. In this study, /approximately/20% of the population was moved from a treatment area and fawn survival rates compared to those on the control area. In the pasture study, deer were stocked in pastures at 3 densities of 44, 89, and 139more » deer/km/sup 2/. Lowering of density in the field portion of the study did not appear to affect fawn survival. This is attributed to not removing enough animals for existing range conditions that have been imparted by high deer densities during the last 3 decades. Also, the effect of removal was tempered by an increase in yearling males brought about by antler-point restrictions during the harvest. Deer removed from the treatment area were used to stock 3 large pastures at low, medium, and high densities of 44, 89, and 139 deer/km/sup 2/, respectively. Fawn survival was significantly different between densities (P < 0.001), with the low density pasture showing the highest survival and the high density pasture showing the lowest survival. The main cause of death was starvation suggesting that food supplies were limiting. A strong compensatory mortality process is operating in this mule deer population as evidenced by the pasture data. We did not detect this process in the field portion of the study because the removal of /approximately/20% of the population was insufficient to allow an immediate improvement in fawn nutrition. The density-dependent survival response in the controlled pasture study demonstrated that compensatory mortality is operating in this population. 57 refs., 7 figs., 6 tabs.« less

Population density and climate shape early-life survival and recruitment in a long-lived pelagic seabird.

PubMed

Fay, Rémi; Weimerskirch, Henri; Delord, Karine; Barbraud, Christophe

2015-09-01

1. Our understanding of demographic processes is mainly based on analyses of traits from the adult component of populations. Early-life demographic traits are poorly known mainly for methodological reasons. Yet, survival of juvenile and immature individuals is critical for the recruitment into the population and thus for the whole population dynamic, especially for long-lived species. This bias currently restrains our ability to fully understand population dynamics of long-lived species and life-history theory. 2. The goal of this study was to estimate the early-life demographic parameters of a long-lived species with a long immature period (9-10 years), to test for sex and age effects on these parameters and to identify the environmental factors encountered during the period of immaturity that may influence survival and recruitment. 3. Using capture-mark-recapture multievent models allowing us to deal with uncertain and unobservable individual states, we analysed a long-term data set of wandering albatrosses to estimate both age- and sex-specific early-life survival and recruitment. We investigated environmental factors potentially driving these demographic traits using climatic and fisheries covariates and tested for density dependence. 4. Our study provides for the first time an estimate of annual survival during the first 2 years at sea for an albatross species (0·801 ± 0·014). Both age and sex affected early-life survival and recruitment processes of this long-lived seabird species. Early-life survival and recruitment were highly variable across years although the sensitivity of young birds to environmental variability decreased with age. Early-life survival was negatively associated with sea surface temperature, and recruitment rate was positively related to both Southern Annular Mode and sea surface temperature. We found strong evidence for density-dependent mortality of juveniles. Population size explained 41% of the variation of this parameter over the study period. 5. These results indicate that early-life survival and recruitment were strongly age and sex dependent in a dimorphic long-lived species. In addition, early-life demographic parameters were affected by natal environmental conditions and by environmental conditions faced during the period of immaturity. Finally, our results constitute one of the first demonstrations of density dependence on juvenile survival in seabirds, with major consequences for our understanding of population dynamics in seabirds. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

How can mortality increase population size? A test of two mechanistic hypotheses.

PubMed

McIntire, Kristina M; Juliano, Steven A

2018-05-03

Overcompensation occurs when added mortality increases survival to the next life-cycle stage. Overcompensation can contribute to the Hydra Effect, wherein added mortality increases equilibrium population size. One hypothesis for overcompensation is that added mortality eases density-dependence, increasing survival to adulthood ("temporal separation of mortality and density dependence"). Mortality early in the life cycle is therefore predicted to cause overcompensation, whereas mortality later in the life cycle is not. Another hypothesis for overcompensation is that threat of mortality (e.g., from predation) causes behavioral changes that reduce overexploitation of resources, allowing resource recovery, and increasing production of adults ("prudent resource exploitation"). Behaviorally active predation cues alone are therefore predicted to cause overcompensation. We tested these predictions in two experiments with larvae of two species of Aedes. As predicted, early mortality yielded greater production of adults, and of adult females, and greater estimated rate of population increase than did later mortality. Addition of water-borne predation cues usually reduced browsing on surfaces in late-stage larvae, but contrary to prediction, resulted in neither significantly greater production of adult mosquitoes nor significantly greater estimated rate of increase. Thus we have strong evidence that timing of mortality contributes to overcompensation and the Hydra effect in mosquitoes. Evidence that predation cues alone can result in overcompensation via prudent resource exploitation is lacking. We expect the overcompensation in response to early mortality will be common in organisms with complex life cycles, density dependence among juveniles, and developmental control of populations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

The Effect of Inhibitory Neuron on the Evolution Model of Higher-Order Coupling Neural Oscillator Population

PubMed Central

Qi, Yi; Wang, Rubin; Jiao, Xianfa; Du, Ying

2014-01-01

We proposed a higher-order coupling neural network model including the inhibitory neurons and examined the dynamical evolution of average number density and phase-neural coding under the spontaneous activity and external stimulating condition. The results indicated that increase of inhibitory coupling strength will cause decrease of average number density, whereas increase of excitatory coupling strength will cause increase of stable amplitude of average number density. Whether the neural oscillator population is able to enter the new synchronous oscillation or not is determined by excitatory and inhibitory coupling strength. In the presence of external stimulation, the evolution of the average number density is dependent upon the external stimulation and the coupling term in which the dominator will determine the final evolution. PMID:24516505

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kastner, S.O.; Bhatia, A.K.

A generalized method for obtaining individual level population ratios is used to obtain relative intensities of extreme ultraviolet Fe XV emission lines in the range 284 --500 A, which are density dependent for electron densities in the tokamak regime or higher. Four lines in particular are found to attain quite high intensities in the high-density limit. The same calculation provides inelastic contributions to linewidths. The method connects level populations and level widths through total probabilities t/sub i/j, related to ''taboo'' probabilities of Markov chain theory. The t/sub i/j are here evaluated for a real atomic system, being therefore of potentialmore » interest to random-walk theorists who have been limited to idealized systems characterized by simplified transition schemes.« less

Drought survival is a threshold function of habitat size and population density in a fish metapopulation.

PubMed

White, Richard S A; McHugh, Peter A; McIntosh, Angus R

2016-10-01

Because smaller habitats dry more frequently and severely during droughts, habitat size is likely a key driver of survival in populations during climate change and associated increased extreme drought frequency. Here, we show that survival in populations during droughts is a threshold function of habitat size driven by an interaction with population density in metapopulations of the forest pool dwelling fish, Neochanna apoda. A mark-recapture study involving 830 N. apoda individuals during a one-in-seventy-year extreme drought revealed that survival during droughts was high for populations occupying pools deeper than 139 mm, but declined steeply in shallower pools. This threshold was caused by an interaction between increasing population density and drought magnitude associated with decreasing habitat size, which acted synergistically to increase physiological stress and mortality. This confirmed two long-held hypotheses, firstly concerning the interactive role of population density and physiological stress, herein driven by habitat size, and secondly, the occurrence of drought survival thresholds. Our results demonstrate how survival in populations during droughts will depend strongly on habitat size and highlight that minimum habitat size thresholds will likely be required to maximize survival as the frequency and intensity of droughts are projected to increase as a result of global climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An experimental test of density-dependent selection on temperament traits of activity, boldness and sociability.

PubMed

Le Galliard, J-F; Paquet, M; Mugabo, M

2015-05-01

Temperament traits are seen in many animal species, and recent evolutionary models predict that they could be maintained by heterogeneous selection. We tested this prediction by examining density-dependent selection in juvenile common lizards Zootoca vivipara scored for activity, boldness and sociability at birth and at the age of 1 year. We measured three key life-history traits (juvenile survival, body growth rate and reproduction) and quantified selection in experimental populations at five density levels ranging from low to high values. We observed consistent individual differences for all behaviours on the short term, but only for activity and one boldness measure across the first year of life. At low density, growth selection favoured more sociable lizards, whereas viability selection favoured less active individuals. A significant negative correlational selection on activity and boldness existed for body growth rate irrespective of density. Thus, behavioural traits were characterized by limited ontogenic consistency, and natural selection was heterogeneous between density treatments and fitness traits. This confirms that density-dependent selection plays an important role in the maintenance of individual differences in exploration-activity and sociability. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Silicon chemistry in interstellar clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Langer, William D.; Glassgold, A. E.

1989-01-01

Interstellar SiO was discovered shortly after CO but it has been detected mainly in high density and high temperature regions associated with outflow sources. A new model of interstellar silicon chemistry that explains the lack of SiO detections in cold clouds is presented which contains an exponential temperature dependence for the SiO abundance. A key aspect of the model is the sensitivity of SiO production by neutral silicon reactions to density and temperature, which arises from the dependence of the rate coefficients on the population of the excited fine structure levels of the silicon atom. This effect was originally pointed out in the context of neutral reactions of carbon and oxygen by Graff, who noted that the leading term in neutral atom-molecule interactions involves the quadrupole moment of the atom. Similar to the case of carbon, the requirement that Si has a quadrupole moment requires population of the J = 1 level, which lies 111K above the J = 0 ground state and has a critical density n(cr) equal to or greater than 10(6)/cu cm. The SiO abundance then has a temperature dependence proportional to exp(-111/T) and a quadratic density dependence for n less than n(cr). As part of the explanation of the lack of SiO detections at low temperatures and densities, this model also emphasizes the small efficiencies of the production routes and the correspondingly long times needed to reach equilibrium. Measurements of the abundance of SiO, in conjunction with theory, can provide information on the physical properties of interstellar clouds such as the abundances of oxygen bearing molecules and the depletion of interstellar silicon.

Adaptive harvest management for the Svalbard population of pink-footed geese: 2015 progress summary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Fred A.; Madsen, Jesper

2015-01-01

This document describes progress to date on the development of an adaptive harvest management strategy for maintaining the Svalbard population of pink‐footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) near their agreed target level (60,000) by providing for sustainable harvests in Norway and Denmark. This report provides an assessment of the most recent monitoring information (1991-2014) and its implications for the harvest management strategy, and it is an update of an initial assessment for 2013-2015 (see http://pinkfootedgoose.aewa.info/). By combining varying hypotheses about survival and reproduction, a suite of nine models have been developed that represent a wide range of possibilities concerning the extent to which demographic rates are density dependent or independent. Current updated model weights suggest little evidence for density-dependent survival and reproduction, suggesting that the population may have recently experienced a release from density-dependent mechanisms, corresponding to the period of most rapid growth in population size. The optimal harvest strategy for the 2013–2015 hunting seasons prescribed a harvest quota of 15,000 per year. The harvest in the 2014 hunting season was 14,991, compared to 11,081 in 2013, mostly due to an increase in harvest in Denmark during January 2015. The percentage of young in the fall of 2014 was 10.3%, which is lower than average. The observed population size of 59,000 in May 2015 was much lower than expected. For the 2015 hunting season, observed population size and temperature days suggest that an emergency closure should be considered. In the event a harvest of 15,000 is maintained, predicted population size in May 2016 is 51,700 (95% CL: 41,600-64,300), based on observed TempDays = 9 in May 2015 and the most recent model weights. On the other hand, if the season were closed this year, we would expect a population size of 66,700 (95% CL: 53,600-82,900) in May 2016. A total harvest of 6,700 would be expected to result in a 2016 population size at goal (i.e., 60,000).

Managing the Cayo Santiago rhesus macaque population: The role of density.

PubMed

Hernandez-Pacheco, Raisa; Delgado, Diana L; Rawlins, Richard G; Kessler, Matthew J; Ruiz-Lambides, Angelina V; Maldonado, Elizabeth; Sabat, Alberto M

2016-01-01

Cayo Santiago is the oldest continuously operating free-ranging rhesus monkey colony in the world. Population control of this colony has historically been carried out by periodic live capture and removal of animals. However, the effect of such a strategy on the size, growth rate, age structure, and sex ratio of the population has not been analyzed. This study reviews past removal data and uses a population projection model to simulate the effects of different removal schemes based on Cayo Santiago demographic data from 2000-2012. The model incorporates negative density-dependence in female fertility, as well as male and female survival rates, to determine the population-level effects of selective removal by age and sex. Modeling revealed that removal of sexually immature individuals has negligible effects on the population dynamics explaining why with an initial population of 1309 in 2000 and annual removals of immature monkeys a mean annual population growth rate of 12% and a final population size of ∼1,435 individuals by 2012 (∼0.009 animal/m(2) ) was observed. With no removals, the population is expected to exhibit dampened oscillations until reaching equilibrium at ∼1,690 individuals (∼0.0111 animal/m(2) ) in 2,100. In contrast, removal of adult females (≥4 yrs) would significantly reduce the population size, but would also promote an increase in population growth rate due to density feedback. A maximum annual production of 275 births is expected when 550 adult females are present in the population. Sensitivity analyses showed that removing females, in contrast to controlling their fertility through invasive treatments would contribute the most to changes in population growth rate. Given the density compensation on fertility, stabilizing the population would require removing ∼80% of the current population of adult females. This study highlights the importance of addressing the population-level density effects, as well as sensitivity analyses, to optimize management strategies. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Evolution of density-dependent movement during experimental range expansions.

PubMed

Fronhofer, E A; Gut, S; Altermatt, F

2017-12-01

Range expansions and biological invasions are prime examples of transient processes that are likely impacted by rapid evolutionary changes. As a spatial process, range expansions are driven by dispersal and movement behaviour. Although it is widely accepted that dispersal and movement may be context-dependent, for instance density-dependent, and best represented by reaction norms, the evolution of density-dependent movement during range expansions has received little experimental attention. We therefore tested current theory predicting the evolution of increased movement at low densities at range margins using highly replicated and controlled range expansion experiments across multiple genotypes of the protist model system Tetrahymena thermophila. Although rare, we found evolutionary changes during range expansions even in the absence of initial standing genetic variation. Range expansions led to the evolution of negatively density-dependent movement at range margins. In addition, we report the evolution of increased intrastrain competitive ability and concurrently decreased population growth rates in range cores. Our findings highlight the importance of understanding movement and dispersal as evolving reaction norms and plastic life-history traits of central relevance for range expansions, biological invasions and the dynamics of spatially structured systems in general. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Emergent multicellular life cycles in filamentous bacteria owing to density-dependent population dynamics.

PubMed

Rossetti, Valentina; Filippini, Manuela; Svercel, Miroslav; Barbour, A D; Bagheri, Homayoun C

2011-12-07

Filamentous bacteria are the oldest and simplest known multicellular life forms. By using computer simulations and experiments that address cell division in a filamentous context, we investigate some of the ecological factors that can lead to the emergence of a multicellular life cycle in filamentous life forms. The model predicts that if cell division and death rates are dependent on the density of cells in a population, a predictable cycle between short and long filament lengths is produced. During exponential growth, there will be a predominance of multicellular filaments, while at carrying capacity, the population converges to a predominance of short filaments and single cells. Model predictions are experimentally tested and confirmed in cultures of heterotrophic and phototrophic bacterial species. Furthermore, by developing a formulation of generation time in bacterial populations, it is shown that changes in generation time can alter length distributions. The theory predicts that given the same population growth curve and fitness, species with longer generation times have longer filaments during comparable population growth phases. Characterization of the environmental dependence of morphological properties such as length, and the number of cells per filament, helps in understanding the pre-existing conditions for the evolution of developmental cycles in simple multicellular organisms. Moreover, the theoretical prediction that strains with the same fitness can exhibit different lengths at comparable growth phases has important implications. It demonstrates that differences in fitness attributed to morphology are not the sole explanation for the evolution of life cycles dominated by multicellularity.

Evidence for density dependence in foraging and migratory behavior of a subtropical nearshore seabird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lamb, Juliet S.; Satgé, Yvan G.; Jodice, Patrick G. R.

2017-01-01

Density-dependent competition for food resources influences both foraging ecology and reproduction in a variety of animals. The relationship between colony size, local prey depletion, and reproductive output in colonial central-place foragers has been extensively studied in seabirds; however, most studies have focused on effects of intraspecific competition during the breeding season, while little is known about whether density-dependent resource depletion influences individual migratory behavior outside the breeding season. Using breeding colony size as a surrogate for intraspecific resource competition, we tested for effects of colony size on breeding home range, nestling health, and migratory patterns of a nearshore colonial seabird, the brown pelican (Pelecanus occidentalis), originating from seven breeding colonies of varying sizes in the subtropical northern Gulf of Mexico. We found evidence for density-dependent effects on foraging behavior during the breeding season, as individual foraging areas increased linearly with the number of breeding pairs per colony. Contrary to our predictions, however, nestlings from more numerous colonies with larger foraging ranges did not experience either decreased condition or increased stress. During nonbreeding, individuals from larger colonies were more likely to migrate, and traveled longer distances, than individuals from smaller colonies, indicating that the influence of density-dependent effects on distribution persists into the nonbreeding period. We also found significant effects of individual physical condition, particularly body size, on migratory behavior, which in combination with colony size suggesting that dominant individuals remain closer to breeding sites during winter. We conclude that density-dependent competition may be an important driver of both the extent of foraging ranges and the degree of migration exhibited by brown pelicans. However, the effects of density-dependent competition on breeding success and population regulation remain uncertain in this system.

Range expansion promotes cooperation in an experimental microbial metapopulation

PubMed Central

Datta, Manoshi Sen; Korolev, Kirill S.; Cvijovic, Ivana; Dudley, Carmel; Gore, Jeff

2013-01-01

Natural populations throughout the tree of life undergo range expansions in response to changes in the environment. Recent theoretical work suggests that range expansions can have a strong effect on evolution, even leading to the fixation of deleterious alleles that would normally be outcompeted in the absence of migration. However, little is known about how range expansions might influence alleles under frequency- or density-dependent selection. Moreover, there is very little experimental evidence to complement existing theory, since expanding populations are difficult to study in the natural environment. In this study, we have used a yeast experimental system to explore the effect of range expansions on the maintenance of cooperative behaviors, which commonly display frequency- and density-dependent selection and are widespread in nature. We found that range expansions favor the maintenance of cooperation in two ways: (i) through the enrichment of cooperators at the front of the expanding population and (ii) by allowing cooperators to “outrun” an invading wave of defectors. In this system, cooperation is enhanced through the coupling of population ecology and evolutionary dynamics in expanding populations, thus providing experimental evidence for a unique mechanism through which cooperative behaviors could be maintained in nature. PMID:23569263

Analysing the natural population growth of a large marine mammal after a depletive harvest.

PubMed

Romero, M A; Grandi, M F; Koen-Alonso, M; Svendsen, G; Ocampo Reinaldo, M; García, N A; Dans, S L; González, R; Crespo, E A

2017-07-13

An understanding of the underlying processes and comprehensive history of population growth after a harvest-driven depletion is necessary when assessing the long-term effectiveness of management and conservation strategies. The South American sea lion (SASL), Otaria flavescens, is the most conspicuous marine mammal along the South American coasts, where it has been heavily exploited. As a consequence of this exploitation, many of its populations were decimated during the early 20th century but currently show a clear recovery. The aim of this study was to assess SASL population recovery by applying a Bayesian state-space modelling framework. We were particularly interested in understanding how the population responds at low densities, how human-induced mortality interplays with natural mechanisms, and how density-dependence may regulate population growth. The observed population trajectory of SASL shows a non-linear relationship with density, recovering with a maximum increase rate of 0.055. However, 50 years after hunting cessation, the population still represents only 40% of its pre-exploitation abundance. Considering that the SASL population in this region represents approximately 72% of the species abundance within the Atlantic Ocean, the present analysis provides insights into the potential mechanisms regulating the dynamics of SASL populations across the global distributional range of the species.

Does personality in small rodents vary depending on population density?

PubMed

Korpela, Katri; Sundell, Janne; Ylönen, Hannu

2011-01-01

Personality means an individual's unique way of behaving and reacting to the environment. It is a stable and heritable trait, which is expressed consistently in different situations. The aim of our study was to develop novel tests to depict the personality structure of the bank vole Myodes glareolus, and to determine if the phase of the population cycle, i.e. population density, affects personality. We focused on some central aspects of bank vole behaviour: mobility, risk taking, exploratory behaviour, dominance, and aggressive behaviour towards pups. These behaviours were chosen because they directly affect bank vole survival or fitness or are classified as important factors of personality in other species. In total, 192 males from different populations went through four behavioural tests, in which 20 variables were measured. The tests were repeated after 3 weeks, which verified that all traits were stable, i.e. repeatable between trials. Three personality compounds emerged, named extroversion, novelty seeking and infanticide. Extroversion included dominance and mobility, while novelty seeking consisted of risk taking and exploration. Infanticide encompassed all indices measuring harmful behaviour towards pups. Mobility and dominance were connected, possibly because both seem to depend on condition. Time spent in captivity increased extroversion, which may be explained by good food, stable conditions and acclimation to strong social cues. Novelty seeking was connected to repeatability which could mean that novelty avoiding individuals adjust their behaviour to match new environments. Population density affected the infanticide trait but not novelty seeking or extroversion.

Influence of geographical scale on the detection of density dependence in the host-parasite system, Arvicola terrestris and Taenia taeniaeformis.

PubMed

Deter, J; Berthier, K; Chaval, Y; Cosson, J F; Morand, S; Charbonnel, N

2006-04-01

Infection by the cestode Taenia taeniaeformis was investigated within numerous cyclic populations of the fossorial water vole Arvicola terrestris sampled during 4 years in Franche-Comté (France). The relative influence of different rodent demographic parameters on the presence of this cestode was assessed by considering (1) the demographic phase of the cycle; (2) density at the local geographical scale (<0.1 km2); (3) mean density at a larger scale (>10 km2). The local scale corresponded to the rodent population (intermediate host), while the large scale corresponded to the definitive host population (wild and feral cats). General linear models based on analyses of 1804 voles revealed the importance of local density but also of year, rodent age, season and interactions between year and season and between age and season. Prevalence was significantly higher in low vole densities than during local outbreaks. By contrast, the large geographical scale density and the demographic phase had less influence on infection by the cestode. The potential impacts of the cestode on the fitness of the host were assessed and infection had no effect on the host body mass, litter size or sexual activity of voles.

Effect of Thermospheric Neutral Density upon Inner Trapped-belt Proton Flux

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Thomas L.; Lodhi, M. A. K.; Diaz, Abel B.

2007-01-01

We wish to point out that a secular change in the Earth's atmospheric neutral density alters charged-particle lifetime in the inner trapped radiation belts, in addition to the changes recently reported as produced by greenhouse gases. Heretofore, changes in neutral density have been of interest primarily because of their effect on the orbital drag of satellites. We extend this to include the orbital lifetime of charged particles in the lower radiation belts. It is known that the charged-belt population is coupled to the neutral density of the atmosphere through changes induced by solar activity, an effect produced by multiple scattering off neutral and ionized atoms along with ionization loss in the thermosphere where charged and neutral populations interact. It will be shown here that trapped-belt flux J is bivariant in energy E and thermospheric neutral density , as J(E,rho). One can conclude that proton lifetimes in these belts are also directly affected by secular changes in the neutral species populating the Earth s thermosphere. This result is a consequence of an intrinsic property of charged-particle flux, that flux is not merely a function of E but is dependent upon density rho when a background of neutrals is present.

The ecogenetic link between demography and evolution: can we bridge the gap between theory and data?

PubMed

Kokko, Hanna; López-Sepulcre, Andrés

2007-09-01

Calls to understand the links between ecology and evolution have been common for decades. Population dynamics, i.e. the demographic changes in populations, arise from life history decisions of individuals and thus are a product of selection, and selection, on the contrary, can be modified by such dynamical properties of the population as density and stability. It follows that generating predictions and testing them correctly requires considering this ecogenetic feedback loop whenever traits have demographic consequences, mediated via density dependence (or frequency dependence). This is not an easy challenge, and arguably theory has advanced at a greater pace than empirical research. However, theory would benefit from more interaction between related fields, as is evident in the many near-synonymous names that the ecogenetic loop has attracted. We also list encouraging examples where empiricists have shown feasible ways of addressing the question, ranging from advanced data analysis to experiments and comparative analyses of phylogenetic data.

Spontaneous mutation rate is a plastic trait associated with population density across domains of life.

PubMed

Krašovec, Rok; Richards, Huw; Gifford, Danna R; Hatcher, Charlie; Faulkner, Katy J; Belavkin, Roman V; Channon, Alastair; Aston, Elizabeth; McBain, Andrew J; Knight, Christopher G

2017-08-01

Rates of random, spontaneous mutation can vary plastically, dependent upon the environment. Such plasticity affects evolutionary trajectories and may be adaptive. We recently identified an inverse plastic association between mutation rate and population density at 1 locus in 1 species of bacterium. It is unknown how widespread this association is, whether it varies among organisms, and what molecular mechanisms of mutagenesis or repair are required for this mutation-rate plasticity. Here, we address all 3 questions. We identify a strong negative association between mutation rate and population density across 70 years of published literature, comprising hundreds of mutation rates estimated using phenotypic markers of mutation (fluctuation tests) from all domains of life and viruses. We test this relationship experimentally, determining that there is indeed density-associated mutation-rate plasticity (DAMP) at multiple loci in both eukaryotes and bacteria, with up to 23-fold lower mutation rates at higher population densities. We find that the degree of plasticity varies, even among closely related organisms. Nonetheless, in each domain tested, DAMP requires proteins scavenging the mutagenic oxidised nucleotide 8-oxo-dGTP. This implies that phenotypic markers give a more precise view of mutation rate than previously believed: having accounted for other known factors affecting mutation rate, controlling for population density can reduce variation in mutation-rate estimates by 93%. Widespread DAMP, which we manipulate genetically in disparate organisms, also provides a novel trait to use in the fight against the evolution of antimicrobial resistance. Such a prevalent environmental association and conserved mechanism suggest that mutation has varied plastically with population density since the early origins of life.

Spontaneous mutation rate is a plastic trait associated with population density across domains of life

PubMed Central

Gifford, Danna R.; Hatcher, Charlie; Faulkner, Katy J.; Belavkin, Roman V.; Channon, Alastair; Aston, Elizabeth; McBain, Andrew J.

2017-01-01

Rates of random, spontaneous mutation can vary plastically, dependent upon the environment. Such plasticity affects evolutionary trajectories and may be adaptive. We recently identified an inverse plastic association between mutation rate and population density at 1 locus in 1 species of bacterium. It is unknown how widespread this association is, whether it varies among organisms, and what molecular mechanisms of mutagenesis or repair are required for this mutation-rate plasticity. Here, we address all 3 questions. We identify a strong negative association between mutation rate and population density across 70 years of published literature, comprising hundreds of mutation rates estimated using phenotypic markers of mutation (fluctuation tests) from all domains of life and viruses. We test this relationship experimentally, determining that there is indeed density-associated mutation-rate plasticity (DAMP) at multiple loci in both eukaryotes and bacteria, with up to 23-fold lower mutation rates at higher population densities. We find that the degree of plasticity varies, even among closely related organisms. Nonetheless, in each domain tested, DAMP requires proteins scavenging the mutagenic oxidised nucleotide 8-oxo-dGTP. This implies that phenotypic markers give a more precise view of mutation rate than previously believed: having accounted for other known factors affecting mutation rate, controlling for population density can reduce variation in mutation-rate estimates by 93%. Widespread DAMP, which we manipulate genetically in disparate organisms, also provides a novel trait to use in the fight against the evolution of antimicrobial resistance. Such a prevalent environmental association and conserved mechanism suggest that mutation has varied plastically with population density since the early origins of life. PMID:28837573

Role of Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse) in local dengue epidemics in Taiwan.

PubMed

Tsai, Pui-Jen; Teng, Hwa-Jen

2016-11-09

Aedes mosquitoes in Taiwan mainly comprise Aedes albopictus and Ae. aegypti. However, the species contributing to autochthonous dengue spread and the extent at which it occurs remain unclear. Thus, in this study, we spatially analyzed real data to determine spatial features related to local dengue incidence and mosquito density, particularly that of Ae. albopictus and Ae. aegypti. We used bivariate Moran's I statistic and geographically weighted regression (GWR) spatial methods to analyze the globally spatial dependence and locally regressed relationship between (1) imported dengue incidences and Breteau indices (BIs) of Ae. albopictus, (2) imported dengue incidences and BI of Ae. aegypti, (3) autochthonous dengue incidences and BI of Ae. albopictus, (4) autochthonous dengue incidences and BI of Ae. aegypti, (5) all dengue incidences and BI of Ae. albopictus, (6) all dengue incidences and BI of Ae. aegypti, (7) BI of Ae. albopictus and human population density, and (8) BI of Ae. aegypti and human population density in 348 townships in Taiwan. In the GWR models, regression coefficients of spatially regressed relationships between the incidence of autochthonous dengue and vector density of Ae. aegypti were significant and positive in most townships in Taiwan. However, Ae. albopictus had significant but negative regression coefficients in clusters of dengue epidemics. In the global bivariate Moran's index, spatial dependence between the incidence of autochthonous dengue and vector density of Ae. aegypti was significant and exhibited positive correlation in Taiwan (bivariate Moran's index = 0.51). However, Ae. albopictus exhibited positively significant but low correlation (bivariate Moran's index = 0.06). Similar results were observed in the two spatial methods between all dengue incidences and Aedes mosquitoes (Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus). The regression coefficients of spatially regressed relationships between imported dengue cases and Aedes mosquitoes (Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus) were significant in 348 townships in Taiwan. The results indicated that local Aedes mosquitoes do not contribute to the dengue incidence of imported cases. The density of Ae. aegypti positively correlated with the density of human population. By contrast, the density of Ae. albopictus negatively correlated with the density of human population in the areas of southern Taiwan. The results indicated that Ae. aegypti has more opportunities for human-mosquito contact in dengue endemic areas in southern Taiwan. Ae. aegypti, but not Ae. albopictus, and human population density in southern Taiwan are closely associated with an increased risk of autochthonous dengue incidence.

Carrier-density dependence of photoluminescence from localized states in InGaN/GaN quantum wells in nanocolumns and a thin film

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shimosako, N., E-mail: n-shimosako@sophia.jp; Inose, Y.; Satoh, H.

2015-11-07

We have measured and analyzed the carrier-density dependence of photoluminescence (PL) spectra and the PL efficiency of InGaN/GaN multiple quantum wells in nanocolumns and in a thin film over a wide excitation range. The localized states parameters, such as the tailing parameter, density and size of the localized states, and the mobility edge density are estimated. The spectral change and reduction of PL efficiency are explained by filling of the localized states and population into the extended states around the mobility edge density. We have also found that the nanocolumns have a narrower distribution of the localized states and amore » higher PL efficiency than those of the film sample although the In composition of the nanocolumns is higher than that of the film.« less

Floral display size, conspecific density and florivory affect fruit set in natural populations of Phlox hirsuta, an endangered species

PubMed Central

Ruane, Lauren G.; Rotzin, Andrew T.; Congleton, Philip H.

2014-01-01

Background and Aims Natural variation in fruit and seed set may be explained by factors that affect the composition of pollen grains on stigmas. Self-incompatible species require compatible outcross pollen grains to produce seeds. The siring success of outcross pollen grains, however, can be hindered if self (or other incompatible) pollen grains co-occur on stigmas. This study identifies factors that determine fruit set in Phlox hirsuta, a self-sterile endangered species that is prone to self-pollination, and its associated fitness costs. Methods Multiple linear regressions were used to identify factors that explain variation in percentage fruit set within three of the five known populations of this endangered species. Florivorous beetle density, petal colour, floral display size, local conspecific density and pre-dispersal seed predation were quantified and their effects on the ability of flowers to produce fruits were assessed. Key Results In all three populations, percentage fruit set decreased as florivorous beetle density increased and as floral display size increased. The effect of floral display size on fruit set, however, often depended on the density of nearby conspecific plants. High local conspecific densities offset – even reversed – the negative effects of floral display size on percentage fruit set. Seed predation by mammals decreased fruit set in one population. Conclusions The results indicate that seed production in P. hirsuta can be maximized by selectively augmenting populations in areas containing isolated large plants, by reducing the population sizes of florivorous beetles and by excluding mammals that consume unripe fruits. PMID:24557879

Modeling seasonal behavior changes and disease transmission with application to chronic wasting disease.

PubMed

Oraby, Tamer; Vasilyeva, Olga; Krewski, Daniel; Lutscher, Frithjof

2014-01-07

Behavior and habitat of wildlife animals change seasonally according to environmental conditions. Mathematical models need to represent this seasonality to be able to make realistic predictions about the future of a population and the effectiveness of human interventions. Managing and modeling disease in wild animal populations requires particular care in that disease transmission dynamics is a critical consideration in the etiology of both human and animal diseases, with different transmission paradigms requiring different disease risk management strategies. Since transmission of infectious diseases among wildlife depends strongly on social behavior, mechanisms of disease transmission could also change seasonally. A specific consideration in this regard confronted by modellers is whether the contact rate between individuals is density-dependent or frequency-dependent. We argue that seasonal behavior changes could lead to a seasonal shift between density and frequency dependence. This hypothesis is explored in the case of chronic wasting disease (CWD), a fatal disease that affects deer, elk and moose in many areas of North America. Specifically, we introduce a strategic CWD risk model based on direct disease transmission that accounts for the seasonal change in the transmission dynamics and habitats occupied, guided by information derived from cervid ecology. The model is composed of summer and winter susceptible-infected (SI) equations, with frequency-dependent and density-dependent transmission dynamics, respectively. The model includes impulsive birth events with density-dependent birth rate. We determine the basic reproduction number as a weighted average of two seasonal reproduction numbers. We parameterize the model from data derived from the scientific literature on CWD and deer ecology, and conduct global and local sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number. We explore the effectiveness of different culling strategies for the management of CWD: although summer culling seems to be an effective disease eradication strategy, the total culling rate is limited by the requirement to preserve the herd. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Poor horse traders: large mammals trade survival for reproduction during the process of feralization

PubMed Central

Grange, Sophie; Duncan, Patrick; Gaillard, Jean-Michel

2009-01-01

We investigated density dependence on the demographic parameters of a population of Camargue horses (Equus caballus), individually monitored and unmanaged for eight years. We also analysed the contributions of individual demographic parameters to changes in the population growth rates. The decrease in resources caused a loss of body condition. Adult male survival was not affected, but the survival of foals and adult females decreased with increasing density. Prime-aged females maintained high reproductive performance at high density, and their survival decreased. The higher survival of adult males compared with females at high density presumably results from higher investment in reproduction by mares. The high fecundity in prime-aged females, even when at high density, may result from artificial selection for high reproductive performance, which is known to have occurred in all the major domestic ungulates. Other studies suggest that feral ungulates including cattle and sheep, as these horses, respond differently from wild ungulates to increases in density, by trading adult survival for reproduction. As a consequence, populations of feral animals should oscillate more strongly than their wild counterparts, since they should be both more invasive (as they breed faster), and more sensitive to harsh environmental conditions (as the population growth rate of long-lived species is consistently more sensitive to a given proportional change in adult survival than to the same change in any other vital rate). If this principle proves to be general, it has important implications for management of populations of feral ungulates. PMID:19324787

Restoration ecology: two-sex dynamics and cost minimization.

PubMed

Molnár, Ferenc; Caragine, Christina; Caraco, Thomas; Korniss, Gyorgy

2013-01-01

We model a spatially detailed, two-sex population dynamics, to study the cost of ecological restoration. We assume that cost is proportional to the number of individuals introduced into a large habitat. We treat dispersal as homogeneous diffusion in a one-dimensional reaction-diffusion system. The local population dynamics depends on sex ratio at birth, and allows mortality rates to differ between sexes. Furthermore, local density dependence induces a strong Allee effect, implying that the initial population must be sufficiently large to avert rapid extinction. We address three different initial spatial distributions for the introduced individuals; for each we minimize the associated cost, constrained by the requirement that the species must be restored throughout the habitat. First, we consider spatially inhomogeneous, unstable stationary solutions of the model's equations as plausible candidates for small restoration cost. Second, we use numerical simulations to find the smallest rectangular cluster, enclosing a spatially homogeneous population density, that minimizes the cost of assured restoration. Finally, by employing simulated annealing, we minimize restoration cost among all possible initial spatial distributions of females and males. For biased sex ratios, or for a significant between-sex difference in mortality, we find that sex-specific spatial distributions minimize the cost. But as long as the sex ratio maximizes the local equilibrium density for given mortality rates, a common homogeneous distribution for both sexes that spans a critical distance yields a similarly low cost.

Restoration Ecology: Two-Sex Dynamics and Cost Minimization

PubMed Central

Molnár, Ferenc; Caragine, Christina; Caraco, Thomas; Korniss, Gyorgy

2013-01-01

We model a spatially detailed, two-sex population dynamics, to study the cost of ecological restoration. We assume that cost is proportional to the number of individuals introduced into a large habitat. We treat dispersal as homogeneous diffusion in a one-dimensional reaction-diffusion system. The local population dynamics depends on sex ratio at birth, and allows mortality rates to differ between sexes. Furthermore, local density dependence induces a strong Allee effect, implying that the initial population must be sufficiently large to avert rapid extinction. We address three different initial spatial distributions for the introduced individuals; for each we minimize the associated cost, constrained by the requirement that the species must be restored throughout the habitat. First, we consider spatially inhomogeneous, unstable stationary solutions of the model’s equations as plausible candidates for small restoration cost. Second, we use numerical simulations to find the smallest rectangular cluster, enclosing a spatially homogeneous population density, that minimizes the cost of assured restoration. Finally, by employing simulated annealing, we minimize restoration cost among all possible initial spatial distributions of females and males. For biased sex ratios, or for a significant between-sex difference in mortality, we find that sex-specific spatial distributions minimize the cost. But as long as the sex ratio maximizes the local equilibrium density for given mortality rates, a common homogeneous distribution for both sexes that spans a critical distance yields a similarly low cost. PMID:24204810

Predation on an Upper Trophic Marine Predator, the Steller Sea Lion: Evaluating High Juvenile Mortality in a Density Dependent Conceptual Framework

PubMed Central

Horning, Markus; Mellish, Jo-Ann E.

2012-01-01

The endangered western stock of the Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) – the largest of the eared seals – has declined by 80% from population levels encountered four decades ago. Current overall trends from the Gulf of Alaska to the Aleutian Islands appear neutral with strong regional heterogeneities. A published inferential model has been used to hypothesize a continuous decline in natality and depressed juvenile survival during the height of the decline in the mid-late 1980's, followed by the recent recovery of juvenile survival to pre-decline rates. However, these hypotheses have not been tested by direct means, and causes underlying past and present population trajectories remain unresolved and controversial. We determined post-weaning juvenile survival and causes of mortality using data received post-mortem via satellite from telemetry transmitters implanted into 36 juvenile Steller sea lions from 2005 through 2011. Data show high post-weaning mortality by predation in the eastern Gulf of Alaska region. To evaluate the impact of such high levels of predation, we developed a conceptual framework to integrate density dependent with density independent effects on vital rates and population trajectories. Our data and model do not support the hypothesized recent recovery of juvenile survival rates and reduced natality. Instead, our data demonstrate continued low juvenile survival in the Prince William Sound and Kenai Fjords region of the Gulf of Alaska. Our results on contemporary predation rates combined with the density dependent conceptual framework suggest predation on juvenile sea lions as the largest impediment to recovery of the species in the eastern Gulf of Alaska region. The framework also highlights the necessity for demographic models based on age-structured census data to incorporate the differential impact of predation on multiple vital rates. PMID:22272296

The role of cell size in density gradient electrophoretic separation of mouse leukemia cells according to position in the cell cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Plank, L. D.; Kunze, M. E.; Todd, P. W.

1985-01-01

Cultured mouse leukemia cells line L5178Y were subjected to upward electrophoresis in a density gradient and the slower migrating cell populations were enriched in G2 cells. It is indicated that this cell line does not change electrophoretic mobility through the cell cycle. The possibility that increased sedimentation downward on the part of the larger G2 cells caused this separation was explored. Two different cell populations were investigated. The log phase population was found to migrate upward faster than the G2 population, and a similar difference between their velocities and calculated on the basis of a 1 um diameter difference between the two cell populations. The G2 and G1 enriched populations were isolated by Ficoll density gradient sedimentation. The bottom fraction was enriched in G2 cells and the top fraction was enriched with G1 cells, especially when compared with starting materials. The electrophoretic mobilities of these two cell populations did not differ significantly from one another. Cell diameter dependent migration curves were calculated and were found to be different. Families of migration curves that differ when cell size is considered as a parameter are predicted.

The Global Statistical Response of the Outer Radiation Belt During Geomagnetic Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, K. R.; Watt, C. E. J.; Mann, I. R.; Jonathan Rae, I.; Sibeck, D. G.; Boyd, A. J.; Forsyth, C. F.; Turner, D. L.; Claudepierre, S. G.; Baker, D. N.; Spence, H. E.; Reeves, G. D.; Blake, J. B.; Fennell, J.

2018-05-01

Using the total radiation belt electron content calculated from Van Allen Probe phase space density, the time-dependent and global response of the outer radiation belt during storms is statistically studied. Using phase space density reduces the impacts of adiabatic changes in the main phase, allowing a separation of adiabatic and nonadiabatic effects and revealing a clear modality and repeatable sequence of events in storm time radiation belt electron dynamics. This sequence exhibits an important first adiabatic invariant (μ)-dependent behavior in the seed (150 MeV/G), relativistic (1,000 MeV/G), and ultrarelativistic (4,000 MeV/G) populations. The outer radiation belt statistically shows an initial phase dominated by loss followed by a second phase of rapid acceleration, while the seed population shows little loss and immediate enhancement. The time sequence of the transition to the acceleration is also strongly μ dependent and occurs at low μ first, appearing to be repeatable from storm to storm.

A selfsimilar behavior of the urban structure in the spatially inhomogeneous model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Echkina, E. Y.; Inovenkov, O. I.; Kostomarov, D. P.

2006-03-01

At present there is a strong tendency to use new methods for the description of the regional and spatial economy. In increasing frequency we consider that any economic activity is spatially dependent. The problem of the evolution of internal urban formation can be described with the exact supposition. So that is why we use partial derivative equations set with the appropriate boundary and initial conditions for the solving the problem of the urban evolution. Here we describe the model of urban population's density modification taking into account a modification of the housing quality. A program has been created which realizes difference method of mixed problem solution for population's density. For the wide class of coefficients it has been shown that the problem's solution “quickly forgets” the parts of the initial conditions and comes out to the intermediate asymptotic form, which nature depends only on the problem's operator. Actually it means that the urban structure does not depend on external circumstances and is formed by the internal structure of the model.

Escape from the competence state in Streptococcus mutans is governed by the bacterial population density.

PubMed

Dufour, D; Villemin, C; Perry, J A; Lévesque, C M

2016-12-01

Horizontal gene transfer through natural DNA transformation is an important evolutionary mechanism among bacteria. Transformation requires that the bacteria are physiologically competent to take and incorporate free DNA directly from the environment. Although natural genetic transformation is a remarkable feature of many naturally competent bacteria, the process is energetically expensive for the cells. Consequently, a tight control of the competence state is necessary. The objective of the present work was to help decipher the molecular mechanisms regulating the escape from the competence state in Streptococcus mutans, the principal etiological agent responsible for tooth decay in humans. Our results showed that the cessation of competence in S. mutans was abrupt, and did not involve the accumulation of a competence inhibitor nor the depletion of a competence activator in the extracellular environment. The competence state was repressed at high cell population density via concomitant repression of sigX gene encoding the master regulator of the competence regulon. Co-culture experiments performed with oral and non-oral bacteria showed that S. mutans assesses its own population density and also the microbial density of its surroundings to regulate its competence escape. Interestingly, neither the intra-species and extra-species quorum-sensing systems nor the other 13 two-component regulatory systems identified in S. mutans were involved in the cell-density-dependent escape of the competence state. Altogether, our results suggest a complex mechanism regulating the competence shut-off involving cell-density-dependent repression of sigX through an as yet undefined system, and possibly SigX protein stability. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Analytical Modelling of the Spread of Disease in Confined and Crowded Spaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goscé, Lara; Barton, David A. W.; Johansson, Anders

2014-05-01

Since 1927 and until recently, most models describing the spread of disease have been of compartmental type, based on the assumption that populations are homogeneous and well-mixed. Recent models have utilised agent-based models and complex networks to explicitly study heterogeneous interaction patterns, but this leads to an increasing computational complexity. Compartmental models are appealing because of their simplicity, but their parameters, especially the transmission rate, are complex and depend on a number of factors, which makes it hard to predict how a change of a single environmental, demographic, or epidemiological factor will affect the population. Therefore, in this contribution we propose a middle ground, utilising crowd-behaviour research to improve compartmental models in crowded situations. We show how both the rate of infection as well as the walking speed depend on the local crowd density around an infected individual. The combined effect is that the rate of infection at a population scale has an analytically tractable non-linear dependency on crowd density. We model the spread of a hypothetical disease in a corridor and compare our new model with a typical compartmental model, which highlights the regime in which current models may not produce credible results.

Influence of body condition on the population dynamics of Atlantic salmon with consideration of the potential impact of sea lice.

PubMed

Susdorf, R; Salama, N K G; Lusseau, D

2017-11-21

Atlantic salmon Salmo salar is an iconic species of high conservation and economic importance. At sea, individuals typically are subject to sea lice infestation, which can have detrimental effects on their host. Over recent decades, the body condition and marine survival in NE Atlantic stocks have generally decreased, reflected in fewer adults returning to rivers, which is partly attributable to sea lice. We developed a deterministic stage-structured population model to assess condition-mediated population dynamics resulting in changing fecundity, age at sexual maturation and marine survival rate. The model is parameterized using data from the North Esk system, north-east Scotland. Both constant and density-dependent juvenile survival rates are considered. We show that even small sea lice-mediated changes in mean body condition of MSW can cause substantial population declines, whereas 1SW condition is less influential. Density dependence alleviates the condition-mediated population effect. The resilience of the population to demographic perturbations declines as adult condition is reduced. Indirect demographic changes in salmonid life-history traits (e.g., body condition) are often considered unimportant for population trajectory. The model shows that Atlantic salmon population dynamics can be highly responsive to sea lice-mediated effects on adult body condition, thus highlighting the importance of non-lethal parasitic long-term effects. © 2017 The Authors Journal of Fish Diseases Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Drinking, driving, and crashing: a traffic-flow model of alcohol-related motor vehicle accidents.

PubMed

Gruenewald, Paul J; Johnson, Fred W

2010-03-01

This study examined the influence of on-premise alcohol-outlet densities and of drinking-driver densities on rates of alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes. A traffic-flow model is developed to represent geographic relationships between residential locations of drinking drivers, alcohol outlets, and alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes. Cross-sectional and time-series cross-sectional spatial analyses were performed using data collected from 144 geographic units over 4 years. Data were obtained from archival and survey sources in six communities. Archival data were obtained within community areas and measured activities of either the resident population or persons visiting these communities. These data included local and highway traffic flow, locations of alcohol outlets, population density, network density of the local roadway system, and single-vehicle nighttime (SVN) crashes. Telephone-survey data obtained from residents of the communities were used to estimate the size of the resident drinking and driving population. Cross-sectional analyses showed that effects relating on-premise densities to alcohol-related crashes were moderated by highway trafficflow. Depending on levels of highway traffic flow, 10% greater densities were related to 0% to 150% greater rates of SVN crashes. Time-series cross-sectional analyses showed that changes in the population pool of drinking drivers and on-premise densities interacted to increase SVN crash rates. A simple traffic-flow model can assess the effects of on-premise alcohol-outlet densities and of drinking-driver densities as they vary across communities to produce alcohol-related crashes. Analyses based on these models can usefully guide policy decisions on the sitting of on-premise alcohol outlets.

The effects of host-feeding on stability of discrete-time host-parasitoid population dynamic models.

PubMed

Emerick, Brooks; Singh, Abhyudai

2016-02-01

Discrete-time models are the traditional approach for capturing population dynamics of a host-parasitoid system. Recent work has introduced a semi-discrete framework for obtaining model update functions that connect host-parasitoid population levels from year-to-year. In particular, this framework uses differential equations to describe the host-parasitoid interaction during the time of year when they come in contact, allowing specific behaviors to be mechanistically incorporated. We use the semi-discrete approach to study the effects of host-feeding, which occurs when a parasitoid consumes a potential host larva without ovipositing. We find that host-feeding by itself cannot stabilize the system, and both populations exhibit behavior similar to the Nicholson-Bailey model. However, when combined with stabilizing mechanisms such as density-dependent host mortality, host-feeding contracts the region of parameter space that allows for a stable host-parasitoid equilibrium. In contrast, when combined with a density-dependent parasitoid attack rate, host-feeding expands the non-zero equilibrium stability region. Our results show that host-feeding causes inefficiency in the parasitoid population, which yields a higher population of hosts per generation. This suggests that host-feeding may have limited long-term impact in terms of suppressing host levels for biological control applications. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Air quality and urban form in U.S. urban areas: evidence from regulatory monitors.

PubMed

Clark, Lara P; Millet, Dylan B; Marshall, Julian D

2011-08-15

The layout of an urban area can impact air pollution via changes in emissions and their spatial distribution. Here, we explore relationships between air quality and urban form based on cross-sectional observations for 111 U.S. urban areas. We employ stepwise linear regression to quantify how long-term population-weighted outdoor concentrations of ozone, fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)), and other criteria pollutants measured by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency depend on urban form, climate, transportation, city size, income, and region. Aspects of urban form evaluated here include city shape, road density, jobs-housing imbalance, population density, and population centrality. We find that population density is associated with higher population-weighted PM(2.5) concentrations (p < 0.01); population centrality is associated with lower population-weighted ozone and PM(2.5) concentrations (p < 0.01); and transit supply is associated with lower population-weighted PM(2.5) concentrations (p < 0.1). Among pollutants, interquartile range changes in urban form variables are associated with 4%-12% changes in population-weighted concentrations-amounts comparable, for example, to changes in climatic factors. Our empirical findings are consistent with prior modeling research and suggest that urban form could potentially play a modest but important role in achieving (or not achieving) long-term air quality goals.

Interspecific and intraspecific competition as causes of direct and delayed density dependence in a fluctuating vole population

PubMed Central

Hansen, Thomas F.; Stenseth, Nils C.; Henttonen, Heikki; Tast, Johan

1999-01-01

A 3- to 5-year cycle of vole abundances is a characteristic phenomenon in the ecology of northern regions, and their explanation stands as a central theoretical challenge in population ecology. Although many species of voles usually coexist and are in severe competition for food and breeding space, the role of interspecific competition in vole cycles has never been evaluated statistically. After studying community effects on the population dynamics of the gray-sided vole (Clethrionomys rufocanus) in the subarctic birch forest at Kilpisjärvi, Finland, we report statistical results showing that both interspecific and intraspecific effects are important in the direct year-to-year density dependence. However, interspecific effects are not detectable in the 2-year delayed density dependence that is crucial for generating the characteristic cycles. Furthermore, we show that most of the competition takes place during the winter. The results are evaluated against two models of community dynamics. One assumes that the delayed effects are caused by an interaction with a specialist predator, and the other assumes that they are caused by overgrazing food plants. These statistical results show that vole cycles may be generated by a species-specific trophic interaction. The results also suggest that the gray-sided vole may be the focal species in the birch-forest community, as field voles may be in the taiga and as lemmings may be on the tundra. PMID:9927680

Tropical insular fish assemblages are resilient to flood disturbance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, William E.; Kwak, Thomas J.

2015-01-01

Periods of stable environmental conditions, favoring development of ecological communities regulated by density-dependent processes, are interrupted by random periods of disturbance that may restructure communities. Disturbance may affect populations via habitat alteration, mortality, or displacement. We quantified fish habitat conditions, density, and movement before and after a major flood disturbance in a Caribbean island tropical river using habitat surveys, fish sampling and population estimates, radio telemetry, and passively monitored PIT tags. Native stream fish populations showed evidence of acute mortality and downstream displacement of surviving fish. All fish species were reduced in number at most life stages after the disturbance, but populations responded with recruitment and migration into vacated upstream habitats. Changes in density were uneven among size classes for most species, indicating altered size structures. Rapid recovery processes at the population level appeared to dampen effects at the assemblage level, as fish assemblage parameters (species richness and diversity) were unchanged by the flooding. The native fish assemblage appeared resilient to flood disturbance, rapidly compensating for mortality and displacement with increased recruitment and recolonization of upstream habitats.

Ultrashort electromagnetic pulse control of intersubband quantum well transitions

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

We study the creation of high-efficiency controlled population transfer in intersubband transitions of semiconductor quantum wells. We give emphasis to the case of interaction of the semiconductor quantum well with electromagnetic pulses with a duration of few cycles and even a single cycle. We numerically solve the effective nonlinear Bloch equations for a specific double GaAs/AlGaAs quantum well structure, taking into account the ultrashort nature of the applied field, and show that high-efficiency population inversion is possible for specific pulse areas. The dependence of the efficiency of population transfer on the electron sheet density and the carrier envelope phase of the pulse is also explored. For electromagnetic pulses with a duration of several cycles, we find that the change in the electron sheet density leads to a very different response of the population in the two subbands to pulse area. However, for pulses with a duration equal to or shorter than 3 cycles, we show that efficient population transfer between the two subbands is possible, independent of the value of electron sheet density, if the pulse area is Π. PMID:22916956

Ultrashort electromagnetic pulse control of intersubband quantum well transitions.

PubMed

Paspalakis, Emmanuel; Boviatsis, John

2012-08-23

: We study the creation of high-efficiency controlled population transfer in intersubband transitions of semiconductor quantum wells. We give emphasis to the case of interaction of the semiconductor quantum well with electromagnetic pulses with a duration of few cycles and even a single cycle. We numerically solve the effective nonlinear Bloch equations for a specific double GaAs/AlGaAs quantum well structure, taking into account the ultrashort nature of the applied field, and show that high-efficiency population inversion is possible for specific pulse areas. The dependence of the efficiency of population transfer on the electron sheet density and the carrier envelope phase of the pulse is also explored. For electromagnetic pulses with a duration of several cycles, we find that the change in the electron sheet density leads to a very different response of the population in the two subbands to pulse area. However, for pulses with a duration equal to or shorter than 3 cycles, we show that efficient population transfer between the two subbands is possible, independent of the value of electron sheet density, if the pulse area is Π.

Population-level analysis and validation of an individual-based cutthroat trout model

Treesearch

Steven F. Railsback; Bret C. Harvey; Roland H. Lamberson; Derek E. Lee; Claasen Nathan J.; Shuzo Yoshihara

2002-01-01

Abstract - An individual-based model of stream trout is analyzed by testing its ability to reproduce patterns of population-level behavior observed in real trout: (1) "self-thinning," a negative power relation between weight and abundance; (2) a "critical period" of density-dependent mortality in young-of-the-year; (3) high and age-speci...

Limits to Bureaucratic Growth: The Density Dependence of Organizational Rule Births.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schulz, Martin

1998-01-01

Uses a population-ecology approach to examine whether bureaucratic rules breed more rules. Tests hypotheses about rule births with time-series data on rule production in a large United States research university. Results show that the rate of rule production declines with the number of rules in a rule population over time. Rules inhibit…

Flying squirrel demography varies between island communities with and without red squirrels

Treesearch

Winston P. Smith

2012-01-01

Recent studies in Southeast Alaska suggest the ecology of Glaucomys sabrinus differs from populations in the Pacific Northwest. In Southeast Alaska, densities were the highest reported for the species, populations were not as closely linked to old-forest attributes, and individuals had a more diverse diet that was less dependent on mycophagy. Pacific...

Dynamical behaviour of a discrete selection-migration model with arbitrary dominance

Treesearch

James F. Selgrade; Jordan West Bostic; James H. Roberds

2009-01-01

To study the effects of immigration of genes (possibly transgenic) into a natural population, a one-island selection-migration model with density-dependent regulation is used to track allele frequency and population size. The existence and uniqueness of a polymorphic genetic equilibrium is proved under a general assumption about dominance in fitnesses. Also, conditions...

Study of Aggregation of Janus Ellipsoids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruth, Donovan; Li, Wei; Khadka, Shreeya; Rickman, Jeffrey; Gunton, James

2013-03-01

We perform numerical simulations of a quasi-square well potential model of one-patch colloidal particles to investigate the collective structure of a system of Janus ellipsoids. We show that for Janus ellipsoids such that one half is an attractive patch, while the entire ellipsoid has a hardcore repulsion, the system organizes into a distribution of orientationally ordered micelles and vesicles. We analyze the cluster distribution at several temperatures and low densities and show that below certain temperatures the system is populated by stable clusters and depending on temperature and density the system is populated by either vesicles or micelle structures.

Effects of host plant and larval density on intraspecific competition in larvae of the emerald ash borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae).

PubMed

Duan, Jian J; Larson, Kristi; Watt, Tim; Gould, Juli; Lelito, Jonathan P

2013-12-01

Competition for food, mates, and space among different individuals of the same insect species can affect density-dependent regulation of insect abundance or population dynamics. The emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), is a serious invasive pest of North American ash (Fraxinus spp.) trees, with its larvae feeding in serpentine galleries between the interface of sapwood and phloem tissues of ash trees. Using artificial infestation of freshly cut logs of green ash (Fraxinus pennsylvanica Marshall) and tropical ash (Fraxinus uhdei [Wenzig] Lingelsh) with a series of egg densities, we evaluated the mechanism and outcome of intraspecific competition in larvae of A. planipennis in relation to larval density and host plant species. Results from our study showed that as the egg densities on each log (1.5-6.5 cm in diameter and 22-25 cm in length) increased from 200 to 1,600 eggs per square meter of surface area, larval survivorship declined from ≍68 to 10% for the green ash logs, and 86 to 55% for tropical ash logs. Accordingly, larval mortality resulting from cannibalism, starvation, or both, significantly increased as egg density increased, and the biomass of surviving larvae significantly decreased on both ash species. When larval density was adjusted to the same level, however, larval mortality from intraspecific competition was significantly higher and mean biomasses of surviving larvae was significantly lower in green ash than in tropical ash. The role of intraspecific competition of A. planipennis larvae in density-dependent regulation of its natural population dynamics is discussed.

Population size dependency of measles epidemic that was scalable from Japanese prefectures to European countries.

PubMed

Yoshikura, Hiroshi

2018-04-27

Relation between number of measles patients (y) and population size (x) was expressed by an equation y = ax s , where a is a constant and s the slope of the plot; s was 2.04-2.17 for prefectures in Japan, i.e., the number of patients was proportional to square of the prefecture population size. For European countries that joined European Union no later than 2009, the slope was 1.43-1.87. The measles' population dependency found among prefectures in Japan was thus scalable up to European countries. It was surprising because, unlike Japan, population density in EU countries was not uniform and not proportional to the population size. The population size dependency was not observed among Western Pacific and South-East Asian countries probably on account of confounding interacting socioeconomic factors. Correlation between measles incidence and birth rate, infant mortality or GDP per capita was almost insignificant.Size distribution of local infection clusters (LICs) of measles and rubella in Japan followed power law. For measles, though the population dependency remained unchanged after "elimination", there was change in the Zipf-type plot of LIC sizes. After the "elimination", LICs linked to importation-related outbreaks in less populated prefectures emerged as the top-ranked LICs.

Age- and sex-specific mortality and population structure in sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bodkin, James L.; Burdin, A.M.; Ryazanov, D.A.

2000-01-01

We used 742 beach-cast carcasses to characterize age- and sex-specific sea otter mortality during the winter of 1990-1991 at Bering Island, Russia. We also examined 363 carcasses recovered after the 1989 grounding of the T/V Exxon Valdez, to characterize age and sex composition in the living western Prince William Sound (WPWS) sea otter population. At Bering Island, mortality was male-biased (81%), and 75% were adults. The WPWS population was female-biased (59%) and most animals were subadult (79% of the males and 45% of the females). In the decade prior to 1990-1991 we found increasing sea otter densities (particularly among males), declining prey resources, and declining weights in adult male sea otters at Bering Island. Our findings suggest the increased mortality at Bering Island in 1990-1991 was a density-dependent population response. We propose male-maintained breeding territories and exclusion of juvenile females by adult females, providing a mechanism for maintaining densities in female areas below densities in male areas and for potentially moderating the effects of prey reductions on the female population. Increased adult male mortality at Bering Island in 1990-1991 likely modified the sex and age class structure there toward that observed in Prince William Sound.

Simulated effect of pig-population density on epidemic size and choice of control strategy for classical swine fever epidemics in The Netherlands.

PubMed

Mangen, M-J J; Nielen, M; Burrell, A M

2002-12-18

We examined the importance of pig-population density in the area of an outbreak of classical swine fever (CSF) for the spread of the infection and the choice of control measures. A spatial, stochastic, dynamic epidemiological simulation model linked to a sector-level market-and-trade model for The Netherlands were used. Outbreaks in sparsely and densely populated areas were compared under four different control strategies and with two alternative trade assumptions. The obligatory control strategy required by current EU legislation was predicted to be enough to eradicate an epidemic starting in an area with sparse pig population. By contrast, additional control measures would be necessary if the outbreak began in an area with high pig density. The economic consequences of using preventive slaughter rather than emergency vaccination as an additional control measure depended strongly on the reactions of trading partners. Reducing the number of animal movements significantly reduced the size and length of epidemics in areas with high pig density. The phenomenon of carrier piglets was included in the model with realistic probabilities of infection by this route, but it made a negligible contribution to the spread of the infection.

The interaction between the spatial distribution of resource patches and population density: consequences for intraspecific growth and morphology.

PubMed

Jacobson, Bailey; Grant, James W A; Peres-Neto, Pedro R

2015-07-01

How individuals within a population distribute themselves across resource patches of varying quality has been an important focus of ecological theory. The ideal free distribution predicts equal fitness amongst individuals in a 1 : 1 ratio with resources, whereas resource defence theory predicts different degrees of monopolization (fitness variance) as a function of temporal and spatial resource clumping and population density. One overlooked landscape characteristic is the spatial distribution of resource patches, altering the equitability of resource accessibility and thereby the effective number of competitors. While much work has investigated the influence of morphology on competitive ability for different resource types, less is known regarding the phenotypic characteristics conferring relative ability for a single resource type, particularly when exploitative competition predominates. Here we used young-of-the-year rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) to test whether and how the spatial distribution of resource patches and population density interact to influence the level and variance of individual growth, as well as if functional morphology relates to competitive ability. Feeding trials were conducted within stream channels under three spatial distributions of nine resource patches (distributed, semi-clumped and clumped) at two density levels (9 and 27 individuals). Average trial growth was greater in high-density treatments with no effect of resource distribution. Within-trial growth variance had opposite patterns across resource distributions. Here, variance decreased at low-population, but increased at high-population densities as patches became increasingly clumped as the result of changes in the levels of interference vs. exploitative competition. Within-trial growth was related to both pre- and post-trial morphology where competitive individuals were those with traits associated with swimming capacity and efficiency: larger heads/bodies/caudal fins and less angled pectoral fins. The different degrees of within-population growth variance at the same density level found here, as a function of spatial resource distribution, provide an explanation for the inconsistencies in within-site growth variance and population regulation often noted with regard to density dependence in natural landscapes. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Experimental demonstration of an Allee effect in microbial populations.

PubMed

Kaul, RajReni B; Kramer, Andrew M; Dobbs, Fred C; Drake, John M

2016-04-01

Microbial populations can be dispersal limited. However, microorganisms that successfully disperse into physiologically ideal environments are not guaranteed to establish. This observation contradicts the Baas-Becking tenet: 'Everything is everywhere, but the environment selects'. Allee effects, which manifest in the relationship between initial population density and probability of establishment, could explain this observation. Here, we experimentally demonstrate that small populations of Vibrio fischeri are subject to an intrinsic demographic Allee effect. Populations subjected to predation by the bacterivore Cafeteria roenbergensis display both intrinsic and extrinsic demographic Allee effects. The estimated critical threshold required to escape positive density-dependence is around 5, 20 or 90 cells ml(-1)under conditions of high carbon resources, low carbon resources or low carbon resources with predation, respectively. This work builds on the foundations of modern microbial ecology, demonstrating that mechanisms controlling macroorganisms apply to microorganisms, and provides a statistical method to detect Allee effects in data. © 2016 The Author(s).

Experimental demonstration of an Allee effect in microbial populations

PubMed Central

Kramer, Andrew M.; Dobbs, Fred C.; Drake, John M.

2016-01-01

Microbial populations can be dispersal limited. However, microorganisms that successfully disperse into physiologically ideal environments are not guaranteed to establish. This observation contradicts the Baas-Becking tenet: ‘Everything is everywhere, but the environment selects’. Allee effects, which manifest in the relationship between initial population density and probability of establishment, could explain this observation. Here, we experimentally demonstrate that small populations of Vibrio fischeri are subject to an intrinsic demographic Allee effect. Populations subjected to predation by the bacterivore Cafeteria roenbergensis display both intrinsic and extrinsic demographic Allee effects. The estimated critical threshold required to escape positive density-dependence is around 5, 20 or 90 cells ml−1 under conditions of high carbon resources, low carbon resources or low carbon resources with predation, respectively. This work builds on the foundations of modern microbial ecology, demonstrating that mechanisms controlling macroorganisms apply to microorganisms, and provides a statistical method to detect Allee effects in data. PMID:27048467

Density dependence, whitebark pine, and vital rates of grizzly bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Manen, Frank T.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Bjornlie, Daniel D.; Ebinger, Michael R.; Thompson, Daniel J.; Costello, Cecily M.; White, Gary C.

2016-01-01

Understanding factors influencing changes in population trajectory is important for effective wildlife management, particularly for populations of conservation concern. Annual population growth of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA has slowed from 4.2–7.6% during 1983–2001 to 0.3–2.2% during 2002–2011. Substantial changes in availability of a key food source and bear population density have occurred. Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), the seeds of which are a valuable but variable fall food for grizzly bears, has experienced substantial mortality primarily due to a mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreak that started in the early 2000s. Positive growth rates of grizzly bears have resulted in populations reaching high densities in some areas and have contributed to continued range expansion. We tested research hypotheses to examine if changes in vital rates detected during the past decade were more associated with whitebark pine decline or, alternatively, increasing grizzly bear density. We focused our assessment on known-fate data to estimate survival of cubs-of-the-year (cubs), yearlings, and independent bears (≥2 yrs), and reproductive transition of females from having no offspring to having cubs. We used spatially and temporally explicit indices for grizzly bear density and whitebark pine mortality as individual covariates. Models indicated moderate support for an increase in survival of independent male bears over 1983–2012, whereas independent female survival did not change. Cub survival, yearling survival, and reproductive transition from no offspring to cubs all changed during the 30-year study period, with lower rates evident during the last 10–15 years. Cub survival and reproductive transition were negatively associated with an index of grizzly bear density, indicating greater declines where bear densities were higher. Our analyses did not support a similar relationship for the index of whitebark pine mortality. The results of our study support the interpretation that slowing of population growth during the last decade was associated more with increasing grizzly bear density than the decline in whitebark pine. Grizzly bear density and its potential effect on vital rates and population trajectory warrant consideration for management of the grizzly bear population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

Seasonality of Tylenchulus semipenetrans Cobb and Pasteuria sp. in Citrus Orchards in Spain

PubMed Central

Sorribas, F. J.; Verdejo-Lucas, S.; Forner, J. B.; Alcaidel, A.; Pons, J.; Ornat, C.

2000-01-01

Population densities of the Mediterranean biotype of Tylenchulus semipenetrans were monitored in soil and citrus roots at 3-month intervals for 3 consecutive years in four citrus orchards in the provinces of Tarragona (Amposta and Xalamera) and Valencia (Moncada and Ca´rcer). Nematode population densities in soil peaked once a year in April or July depending on the orchard and year. Numbers of females per gram of root increased once or twice each year. The maximum density of eggs per gram of root was recorded in April at Xalamera and Ca´rcer orchards, but there was no recognizable peak in the other two orchards. Numbers of nematodes in soil, females or eggs per gram of root, or eggs per female were correlated with either temperature or rainfall in the sampling month, 1 month before sampling, or in the second preceding month, depending on the orchard. Members of the Pasteuria group were present in the four citrus orchards, and a positive relationship occurred between nematodes in soil and bacterial parasitism (r² = 0.75) in the orchard at Amposta. PMID:19271018

Effects of social organization, trap arrangement and density, sampling scale, and population density on bias in population size estimation using some common mark-recapture estimators.

PubMed

Gupta, Manan; Joshi, Amitabh; Vidya, T N C

2017-01-01

Mark-recapture estimators are commonly used for population size estimation, and typically yield unbiased estimates for most solitary species with low to moderate home range sizes. However, these methods assume independence of captures among individuals, an assumption that is clearly violated in social species that show fission-fusion dynamics, such as the Asian elephant. In the specific case of Asian elephants, doubts have been raised about the accuracy of population size estimates. More importantly, the potential problem for the use of mark-recapture methods posed by social organization in general has not been systematically addressed. We developed an individual-based simulation framework to systematically examine the potential effects of type of social organization, as well as other factors such as trap density and arrangement, spatial scale of sampling, and population density, on bias in population sizes estimated by POPAN, Robust Design, and Robust Design with detection heterogeneity. In the present study, we ran simulations with biological, demographic and ecological parameters relevant to Asian elephant populations, but the simulation framework is easily extended to address questions relevant to other social species. We collected capture history data from the simulations, and used those data to test for bias in population size estimation. Social organization significantly affected bias in most analyses, but the effect sizes were variable, depending on other factors. Social organization tended to introduce large bias when trap arrangement was uniform and sampling effort was low. POPAN clearly outperformed the two Robust Design models we tested, yielding close to zero bias if traps were arranged at random in the study area, and when population density and trap density were not too low. Social organization did not have a major effect on bias for these parameter combinations at which POPAN gave more or less unbiased population size estimates. Therefore, the effect of social organization on bias in population estimation could be removed by using POPAN with specific parameter combinations, to obtain population size estimates in a social species.

Effects of social organization, trap arrangement and density, sampling scale, and population density on bias in population size estimation using some common mark-recapture estimators

PubMed Central

Joshi, Amitabh; Vidya, T. N. C.

2017-01-01

Mark-recapture estimators are commonly used for population size estimation, and typically yield unbiased estimates for most solitary species with low to moderate home range sizes. However, these methods assume independence of captures among individuals, an assumption that is clearly violated in social species that show fission-fusion dynamics, such as the Asian elephant. In the specific case of Asian elephants, doubts have been raised about the accuracy of population size estimates. More importantly, the potential problem for the use of mark-recapture methods posed by social organization in general has not been systematically addressed. We developed an individual-based simulation framework to systematically examine the potential effects of type of social organization, as well as other factors such as trap density and arrangement, spatial scale of sampling, and population density, on bias in population sizes estimated by POPAN, Robust Design, and Robust Design with detection heterogeneity. In the present study, we ran simulations with biological, demographic and ecological parameters relevant to Asian elephant populations, but the simulation framework is easily extended to address questions relevant to other social species. We collected capture history data from the simulations, and used those data to test for bias in population size estimation. Social organization significantly affected bias in most analyses, but the effect sizes were variable, depending on other factors. Social organization tended to introduce large bias when trap arrangement was uniform and sampling effort was low. POPAN clearly outperformed the two Robust Design models we tested, yielding close to zero bias if traps were arranged at random in the study area, and when population density and trap density were not too low. Social organization did not have a major effect on bias for these parameter combinations at which POPAN gave more or less unbiased population size estimates. Therefore, the effect of social organization on bias in population estimation could be removed by using POPAN with specific parameter combinations, to obtain population size estimates in a social species. PMID:28306735

Benchmark study on glyphosate-resistant cropping systems in the United States. Part 7: Effects of weed management strategy (grower practices versus academic recommendations) on the weed soil seedbank over 6 years.

PubMed

Gibson, David J; Young, Bryan G; Owen, Micheal D K; Gage, Karla L; Matthews, Joseph L; Jordan, David L; Shaw, David R; Weller, Stephen C; Wilson, Robert G

2016-04-01

Shifts in weed species composition and richness resulting from near-exclusive reliance on herbicides in glyphosate-resistant (GR) cropping systems has necessitated the implementation of alternative weed management tactics to reduce selection pressures of herbicides. We contrasted the response of the weed soil seedbank to effects of weed management strategy, comparing grower practices with academic recommendations for best management practices (BMPs) over 6 years and across five weed hardiness zones in the US Midwest at sites subject to GR cropping systems. Total weed population density and species richness varied according to cropping system, location and prior year's crop, but less so to weed management strategy. The seedbank population density for 11 of the 14 most frequent weed species was affected by weed management strategy either alone or in an interaction with hardiness zone or year, or both. In only 29% of comparisons was weed population density lower following academic recommendations, and this depended upon prior crop and cropping system. The population density of high-risk weed species was reduced by academic recommendations, but only in two of six years and under continuous GR maize. Overall, the weed population density was decreasing in field halves subject to the BMPs in the academic recommendations relative to grower practices. The soil seedbank is slow to respond to academic recommendations to mitigate glyphosate-resistant weeds, but represents a biological legacy that growers need to keep in mind even when management practices reduce emerged field weed population densities. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.

Demographic changes following mechanical removal of exotic brown trout in an Intermountain West (USA), high-elevation stream

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saunders, W. Carl; Budy, Phaedra E.; Thiede, Gary P.

2015-01-01

Exotic species present a great threat to native fish conservation; however, eradicating exotics is expensive and often impractical. Mechanical removal can be ineffective for eradication, but nonetheless may increase management effectiveness by identifying portions of a watershed that are strong sources of exotics. We used mechanical removal to understand processes driving exotic brown trout (Salmo trutta) populations in the Logan River, Utah. Our goals were to: (i) evaluate the demographic response of brown trout to mechanical removal, (ii) identify sources of brown trout recruitment at a watershed scale and (iii) evaluate whether mechanical removal can reduce brown trout densities. We removed brown trout from 2 km of the Logan River (4174 fish), and 5.6 km of Right Hand Fork (RHF, 15,245 fish), a low-elevation tributary, using single-pass electrofishing. We compared fish abundance and size distributions prior to, and after 2 years of mechanical removal. In the Logan River, immigration to the removal reach and high natural variability in fish abundances limited the response to mechanical removal. In contrast, mechanical removal in RHF resulted in a strong recruitment pulse, shifting the size distribution towards smaller fish. These results suggest that, before removal, density-dependent mortality or emigration of juvenile fish stabilised adult populations and may have provided a source of juveniles to the main stem. Overall, in sites demonstrating strong density-dependent population regulation, or near sources of exotics, short-term mechanical removal has limited effects on brown trout populations but may help identify factors governing populations and inform large-scale management of exotic species.

Predicting Grizzly Bear Density in Western North America

PubMed Central

Mowat, Garth; Heard, Douglas C.; Schwarz, Carl J.

2013-01-01

Conservation of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) is often controversial and the disagreement often is focused on the estimates of density used to calculate allowable kill. Many recent estimates of grizzly bear density are now available but field-based estimates will never be available for more than a small portion of hunted populations. Current methods of predicting density in areas of management interest are subjective and untested. Objective methods have been proposed, but these statistical models are so dependent on results from individual study areas that the models do not generalize well. We built regression models to relate grizzly bear density to ultimate measures of ecosystem productivity and mortality for interior and coastal ecosystems in North America. We used 90 measures of grizzly bear density in interior ecosystems, of which 14 were currently known to be unoccupied by grizzly bears. In coastal areas, we used 17 measures of density including 2 unoccupied areas. Our best model for coastal areas included a negative relationship with tree cover and positive relationships with the proportion of salmon in the diet and topographic ruggedness, which was correlated with precipitation. Our best interior model included 3 variables that indexed terrestrial productivity, 1 describing vegetation cover, 2 indices of human use of the landscape and, an index of topographic ruggedness. We used our models to predict current population sizes across Canada and present these as alternatives to current population estimates. Our models predict fewer grizzly bears in British Columbia but more bears in Canada than in the latest status review. These predictions can be used to assess population status, set limits for total human-caused mortality, and for conservation planning, but because our predictions are static, they cannot be used to assess population trend. PMID:24367552

Predicting grizzly bear density in western North America.

PubMed

Mowat, Garth; Heard, Douglas C; Schwarz, Carl J

2013-01-01

Conservation of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) is often controversial and the disagreement often is focused on the estimates of density used to calculate allowable kill. Many recent estimates of grizzly bear density are now available but field-based estimates will never be available for more than a small portion of hunted populations. Current methods of predicting density in areas of management interest are subjective and untested. Objective methods have been proposed, but these statistical models are so dependent on results from individual study areas that the models do not generalize well. We built regression models to relate grizzly bear density to ultimate measures of ecosystem productivity and mortality for interior and coastal ecosystems in North America. We used 90 measures of grizzly bear density in interior ecosystems, of which 14 were currently known to be unoccupied by grizzly bears. In coastal areas, we used 17 measures of density including 2 unoccupied areas. Our best model for coastal areas included a negative relationship with tree cover and positive relationships with the proportion of salmon in the diet and topographic ruggedness, which was correlated with precipitation. Our best interior model included 3 variables that indexed terrestrial productivity, 1 describing vegetation cover, 2 indices of human use of the landscape and, an index of topographic ruggedness. We used our models to predict current population sizes across Canada and present these as alternatives to current population estimates. Our models predict fewer grizzly bears in British Columbia but more bears in Canada than in the latest status review. These predictions can be used to assess population status, set limits for total human-caused mortality, and for conservation planning, but because our predictions are static, they cannot be used to assess population trend.

Low leopard populations in protected areas of Maputaland: a consequence of poaching, habitat condition, abundance of prey, and a top predator.

PubMed

Ramesh, Tharmalingam; Kalle, Riddhika; Rosenlund, Havard; Downs, Colleen T

2017-03-01

Identifying the primary causes affecting population densities and distribution of flagship species are necessary in developing sustainable management strategies for large carnivore conservation. We modeled drivers of spatial density of the common leopard ( Panthera pardus ) using a spatially explicit capture-recapture-Bayesian approach to understand their population dynamics in the Maputaland Conservation Unit, South Africa. We camera-trapped leopards in four protected areas (PAs) of varying sizes and disturbance levels covering 198 camera stations. Ours is the first study to explore the effects of poaching level, abundance of prey species (small, medium, and large), competitors (lion Panthera leo and spotted hyenas Crocuta crocuta ), and habitat on the spatial distribution of common leopard density. Twenty-six male and 41 female leopards were individually identified and estimated leopard density ranged from 1.6 ± 0.62/100 km 2 (smallest PA-Ndumo) to 8.4 ± 1.03/100 km 2 (largest PA-western shores). Although dry forest thickets and plantation habitats largely represented the western shores, the plantation areas had extremely low leopard density compared to native forest. We found that leopard density increased in areas when low poaching levels/no poaching was recorded in dry forest thickets and with high abundance of medium-sized prey, but decreased with increasing abundance of lion. Because local leopard populations are vulnerable to extinction, particularly in smaller PAs, the long-term sustainability of leopard populations depend on developing appropriate management strategies that consider a combination of multiple factors to maintain their optimal habitats.

Does transport time help explain the high trauma mortality rates in rural areas? New and traditional predictors assessed by new and traditional statistical methods

PubMed Central

Røislien, Jo; Lossius, Hans Morten; Kristiansen, Thomas

2015-01-01

Background Trauma is a leading global cause of death. Trauma mortality rates are higher in rural areas, constituting a challenge for quality and equality in trauma care. The aim of the study was to explore population density and transport time to hospital care as possible predictors of geographical differences in mortality rates, and to what extent choice of statistical method might affect the analytical results and accompanying clinical conclusions. Methods Using data from the Norwegian Cause of Death registry, deaths from external causes 1998–2007 were analysed. Norway consists of 434 municipalities, and municipality population density and travel time to hospital care were entered as predictors of municipality mortality rates in univariate and multiple regression models of increasing model complexity. We fitted linear regression models with continuous and categorised predictors, as well as piecewise linear and generalised additive models (GAMs). Models were compared using Akaike's information criterion (AIC). Results Population density was an independent predictor of trauma mortality rates, while the contribution of transport time to hospital care was highly dependent on choice of statistical model. A multiple GAM or piecewise linear model was superior, and similar, in terms of AIC. However, while transport time was statistically significant in multiple models with piecewise linear or categorised predictors, it was not in GAM or standard linear regression. Conclusions Population density is an independent predictor of trauma mortality rates. The added explanatory value of transport time to hospital care is marginal and model-dependent, highlighting the importance of exploring several statistical models when studying complex associations in observational data. PMID:25972600

The impacts of marijuana dispensary density and neighborhood ecology on marijuana abuse and dependence

PubMed Central

Mair, Christina; Freisthler, Bridget; Ponicki, William R.; Gaidus, Andrew

2015-01-01

Background As an increasing number of states liberalize cannabis use and develop laws and local policies, it is essential to better understand the impacts of neighborhood ecology and marijuana dispensary density on marijuana use, abuse, and dependence. We investigated associations between marijuana abuse/dependence hospitalizations and community demographic and environmental conditions from 2001–2012 in California, as well as cross-sectional associations between local and adjacent marijuana dispensary densities and marijuana hospitalizations. Methods We analyzed panel population data relating hospitalizations coded for marijuana abuse or dependence and assigned to residential ZIP codes in California from 2001 through 2012 (20,219 space-time units) to ZIP code demographic and ecological characteristics. Bayesian space-time misalignment models were used to account for spatial variations in geographic unit definitions over time, while also accounting for spatial autocorrelation using conditional autoregressive priors. We also analyzed cross-sectional associations between marijuana abuse/dependence and the density of dispensaries in local and spatially adjacent ZIP codes in 2012. Results An additional one dispensary per square mile in a ZIP code was cross-sectionally associated with a 6.8% increase in the number of marijuana hospitalizations (95% credible interval 1.033, 1.105) with a marijuana abuse/dependence code. Other local characteristics, such as the median household income and age and racial/ethnic distributions, were associated with marijuana hospitalizations in cross-sectional and panel analyses. Conclusions Prevention and intervention programs for marijuana abuse and dependence may be particularly essential in areas of concentrated disadvantage. Policy makers may want to consider regulations that limit the density of dispensaries. PMID:26154479

Occurrence of Parthenogenesis in Potato Tuber Moth

PubMed Central

Liu, Yan; Hu, Chun-Hua; Wang, Chun-Ya; Xiong, Yan; Li, Zong-Kai; Xiao, Chun

2018-01-01

Abstract Parthenogenesis, a natural form of asexual reproduction produced from unfertilized eggs, occurs in many insects in Hemiptera and Hymenoptera, but very rarely in Lepidoptera. The current study aimed to test the larval density dependent occurrence of parthenogenesis in potato tuber moth, Phthorimaea operculella (Zeller; Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) under laboratory conditions. More than 10% of females out of 25 tested females that developed from the high larval density treatment at 45 larvae per tuber were capable to reproduce asexually. Both male and female offspring were produced parthenogenetically. The sexually reproductive offspring of a laboratory parthenogenetic population had a lower egg hatch rate, shorter larval stage, and shorter male life span when compared with the non-parthenogenetic population. This suggests that the sexually reproductive offspring of parthenogenetic population have a decreased overall fitness compared to the sexually reproductive offspring of non-parthenogenetic population.

Comparison of Drive Counts and Mark-Resight As Methods of Population Size Estimation of Highly Dense Sika Deer (Cervus nippon) Populations.

PubMed

Takeshita, Kazutaka; Ikeda, Takashi; Takahashi, Hiroshi; Yoshida, Tsuyoshi; Igota, Hiromasa; Matsuura, Yukiko; Kaji, Koichi

2016-01-01

Assessing temporal changes in abundance indices is an important issue in the management of large herbivore populations. The drive counts method has been frequently used as a deer abundance index in mountainous regions. However, despite an inherent risk for observation errors in drive counts, which increase with deer density, evaluations of the utility of drive counts at a high deer density remain scarce. We compared the drive counts and mark-resight (MR) methods in the evaluation of a highly dense sika deer population (MR estimates ranged between 11 and 53 individuals/km2) on Nakanoshima Island, Hokkaido, Japan, between 1999 and 2006. This deer population experienced two large reductions in density; approximately 200 animals in total were taken from the population through a large-scale population removal and a separate winter mass mortality event. Although the drive counts tracked temporal changes in deer abundance on the island, they overestimated the counts for all years in comparison to the MR method. Increased overestimation in drive count estimates after the winter mass mortality event may be due to a double count derived from increased deer movement and recovery of body condition secondary to the mitigation of density-dependent food limitations. Drive counts are unreliable because they are affected by unfavorable factors such as bad weather, and they are cost-prohibitive to repeat, which precludes the calculation of confidence intervals. Therefore, the use of drive counts to infer the deer abundance needs to be reconsidered.

Sexual reproduction and population dynamics: the role of polygyny and demographic sex differences.

PubMed Central

Lindström, J; Kokko, H

1998-01-01

Most models of population dynamics do not take sexual reproduction into account (i.e., they do not consider the role of males). However, assumptions behind this practice--that no demographic sex differences exist and males are always abundant enough to fertilize all the females--are usually not justified in natural populations. On the contrary, demographic sex differences are common, especially in polygynous species. Previous models that consider sexual reproduction report a stabilizing effect through mixing of different genotypes, thus suggesting a decrease in the propensity for complex of dynamics in sexually reproducing populations. Here we show that considering the direct role of males in reproduction and density dependence leads to the conclusion that a two-sex model is not necessarily more stable compared with the corresponding one-sex model. Although solutions exist where sexual reproduction has a stabilizing effect even when no genotypic variability is included (primarily when associated with monogamy), factors like polygyny, sex differences in survival or density dependence, and possible alterations of the primary sex ratio (the Trivers-Willard mechanism), may enlarge the parametric region of complex dynamics. Sexual reproduction therefore does not necessarily increase the stability of population dynamics and can have destabilizing effects, at least in species with complicated mating systems and sexual dimorphism. PMID:9606132

Temporal changes in kin structure through a population cycle in a territorial bird, the red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus.

PubMed

Piertney, Stuart B; Lambin, Xavier; Maccoll, Andrew D C; Lock, Kerry; Bacon, Philip J; Dallas, John F; Leckie, Fiona; Mougeot, Francois; Racey, Paul A; Redpath, Steve; Moss, Robert

2008-05-01

Populations of red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus) undergo regular multiannual cycles in abundance. The 'kinship hypothesis' posits that such cycles are caused by changes in kin structure among territorial males producing delayed density-dependent changes in aggressiveness, which in turn influence recruitment and regulate density. The kinship hypothesis makes several specific predictions about the levels of kinship, aggressiveness and recruitment through a population cycle: (i) kin structure will build up during the increase phase of a cycle, but break down prior to peak density; (ii) kin structure influences aggressiveness, such that there will be a negative relationship between kinship and aggressiveness over the years; (iii) as aggressiveness regulates recruitment and density, there will be a negative relationship between aggressiveness in one year and both recruitment and density in the next; (iv) as kin structure influences recruitment via an affect on aggressiveness, there will be a positive relationship between kinship in one year and recruitment the next. Here we test these predictions through the course of an 8-year cycle in a natural population of red grouse in northeast Scotland, using microsatellite DNA markers to resolve changing patterns of kin structure, and supra-orbital comb height of grouse as an index of aggressiveness. Both kin structure and aggressiveness were dynamic through the course of the cycle, and changing patterns were entirely consistent with the expectations of the kinship hypothesis. Results are discussed in relation to potential drivers of population regulation and implications of dynamic kin structure for population genetics.

Hydrology and density feedbacks control the ecology of intermediate hosts of schistosomiasis across habitats in seasonal climates

PubMed Central

Perez-Saez, Javier; Mande, Theophile; Ceperley, Natalie; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Rinaldo, Andrea

2016-01-01

We report about field and theoretical studies on the ecology of the aquatic snails (Bulinus spp. and Biomphalaria pfeifferi) that serve as obligate intermediate hosts in the complex life cycle of the parasites causing human schistosomiasis. Snail abundance fosters disease transmission, and thus the dynamics of snail populations are critically important for schistosomiasis modeling and control. Here, we single out hydrological drivers and density dependence (or lack of it) of ecological growth rates of local snail populations by contrasting novel ecological and environmental data with various models of host demography. Specifically, we study various natural and man-made habitats across Burkina Faso’s highly seasonal climatic zones. Demographic models are ranked through formal model comparison and structural risk minimization. The latter allows us to evaluate the suitability of population models while clarifying the relevant covariates that explain empirical observations of snail abundance under the actual climatic forcings experienced by the various field sites. Our results link quantitatively hydrological drivers to distinct population dynamics through specific density feedbacks, and show that statistical methods based on model averaging provide reliable snail abundance projections. The consistency of our ranking results suggests the use of ad hoc models of snail demography depending on habitat type (e.g., natural vs. man-made) and hydrological characteristics (e.g., ephemeral vs. permanent). Implications for risk mapping and space-time allocation of control measures in schistosomiasis-endemic contexts are discussed. PMID:27162339

Hydrology and density feedbacks control the ecology of intermediate hosts of schistosomiasis across habitats in seasonal climates.

PubMed

Perez-Saez, Javier; Mande, Theophile; Ceperley, Natalie; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Gatto, Marino; Rinaldo, Andrea

2016-06-07

We report about field and theoretical studies on the ecology of the aquatic snails (Bulinus spp. and Biomphalaria pfeifferi) that serve as obligate intermediate hosts in the complex life cycle of the parasites causing human schistosomiasis. Snail abundance fosters disease transmission, and thus the dynamics of snail populations are critically important for schistosomiasis modeling and control. Here, we single out hydrological drivers and density dependence (or lack of it) of ecological growth rates of local snail populations by contrasting novel ecological and environmental data with various models of host demography. Specifically, we study various natural and man-made habitats across Burkina Faso's highly seasonal climatic zones. Demographic models are ranked through formal model comparison and structural risk minimization. The latter allows us to evaluate the suitability of population models while clarifying the relevant covariates that explain empirical observations of snail abundance under the actual climatic forcings experienced by the various field sites. Our results link quantitatively hydrological drivers to distinct population dynamics through specific density feedbacks, and show that statistical methods based on model averaging provide reliable snail abundance projections. The consistency of our ranking results suggests the use of ad hoc models of snail demography depending on habitat type (e.g., natural vs. man-made) and hydrological characteristics (e.g., ephemeral vs. permanent). Implications for risk mapping and space-time allocation of control measures in schistosomiasis-endemic contexts are discussed.

Modelling the dynamics of feral alfalfa populations and its management implications.

PubMed

Bagavathiannan, Muthukumar V; Begg, Graham S; Gulden, Robert H; Van Acker, Rene C

2012-01-01

Feral populations of cultivated crops can pose challenges to novel trait confinement within agricultural landscapes. Simulation models can be helpful in investigating the underlying dynamics of feral populations and determining suitable management options. We developed a stage-structured matrix population model for roadside feral alfalfa populations occurring in southern Manitoba, Canada. The model accounted for the existence of density-dependence and recruitment subsidy in feral populations. We used the model to investigate the long-term dynamics of feral alfalfa populations, and to evaluate the effectiveness of simulated management strategies such as herbicide application and mowing in controlling feral alfalfa. Results suggest that alfalfa populations occurring in roadside habitats can be persistent and less likely to go extinct under current roadverge management scenarios. Management attempts focused on controlling adult plants alone can be counterproductive due to the presence of density-dependent effects. Targeted herbicide application, which can achieve complete control of seedlings, rosettes and established plants, will be an effective strategy, but the seedbank population may contribute to new recruits. In regions where roadside mowing is regularly practiced, devising a timely mowing strategy (early- to mid-August for southern Manitoba), one that can totally prevent seed production, will be a feasible option for managing feral alfalfa populations. Feral alfalfa populations can be persistent in roadside habitats. Timely mowing or regular targeted herbicide application will be effective in managing feral alfalfa populations and limit feral-population-mediated gene flow in alfalfa. However, in the context of novel trait confinement, the extent to which feral alfalfa populations need to be managed will be dictated by the tolerance levels established by specific production systems for specific traits. The modelling framework outlined in this paper could be applied to other perennial herbaceous plants with similar life-history characteristics.

Effects of spatial habitat heterogeneity on habitat selection and annual fecundity for a migratory forest songbird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cornell, K.L.; Donovan, T.M.

2010-01-01

Understanding how spatial habitat patterns influence abundance and dynamics of animal populations is a primary goal in landscape ecology. We used an information-theoretic approach to investigate the association between habitat patterns at multiple spatial scales and demographic patterns for black-throated blue warblers (Dendroica caerulescens) at 20 study sites in west-central Vermont, USA from 2002 to 2005. Sites were characterized by: (1) territory-scale shrub density, (2) patch-scale shrub density occurring within 25 ha of territories, and (3) landscape-scale habitat patterns occurring within 5 km radius extents of territories. We considered multiple population parameters including abundance, age ratios, and annual fecundity. Territory-scale shrub density was most important for determining abundance and age ratios, but landscape-scale habitat structure strongly influenced reproductive output. Sites with higher territory-scale shrub density had higher abundance, and were more likely to be occupied by older, more experienced individuals compared to sites with lower shrub density. However, annual fecundity was higher on sites located in contiguously forested landscapes where shrub density was lower than the fragmented sites. Further, effects of habitat pattern at one spatial scale depended on habitat conditions at different scales. For example, abundance increased with increasing territory-scale shrub density, but this effect was much stronger in fragmented landscapes than in contiguously forested landscapes. These results suggest that habitat pattern at different spatial scales affect demographic parameters in different ways, and that effects of habitat patterns at one spatial scale depends on habitat conditions at other scales. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

Density-independent survival of wild lake trout in the Apostle Islands area of Lake Superior

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bronte, Charles R.; Schram, Stephen T.; Selgeby, James H.; Swanson, Bruce L.

1995-01-01

The lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) stock at Gull Island Shoal in western Lake Superior was one of only a few stocks of lean lake trout in the Great Lakes that survived overfishing and predation by the sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus). Since the mid 1960s, the abundance of wild recruits measured at age 0 and the number of age-7 to -11 wild fish recruited to the fishable stock have increased. We used the Varley-Gradwell method to test for density-dependent survival between these life stages. Survival from age-0 to ages 7–11 was not affected by increasing density, which suggests that further increases in recruitment and stock size are still possible. We suggest that testing for the existence of density-dependent survival can be used to indicate when lake trout populations are rehabilitated.

Ecologies of ideologies: Explaining party entry and exit in West-European parliaments, 1945-2013.

PubMed

van de Wardt, Marc; Berkhout, Joost; Vermeulen, Floris

2017-06-01

This study introduces a population-ecological approach to the entry and exit of political parties. A primary proposition of population ecology is that organizational entry and exit depends on the number of organizations already present: that is, density. We propose that political parties mainly experience competition from parties in the same ideological niche (left, centre, right). Pooled time-series analyses of 410 parties, 263 elections and 18 West-European countries largely support our expectations. We find that political parties are more likely to exit when density within their niche increases. Also there is competition between adjacent ideological niches, i.e. between centrist and right-wing niches. In contrast to our expectations, neither density nor institutional rules impact party entry. This raises important questions about the rationale of prospective entrants.

Inventory implications of using sampling variances in estimation of growth model coefficients

Treesearch

Albert R. Stage; William R. Wykoff

2000-01-01

Variables based on stand densities or stocking have sampling errors that depend on the relation of tree size to plot size and on the spatial structure of the population, ignoring the sampling errors of such variables, which include most measures of competition used in both distance-dependent and distance-independent growth models, can bias the predictions obtained from...

Obscuration-dependent Evolution of Active Galactic Nuclei

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchner, Johannes; Georgakakis, Antonis; Nandra, Kirpal; Brightman, Murray; Menzel, Marie-Luise; Liu, Zhu; Hsu, Li-Ting; Salvato, Mara; Rangel, Cyprian; Aird, James; Merloni, Andrea; Ross, Nicholas

2015-04-01

We aim to constrain the evolution of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) as a function of obscuration using an X-ray-selected sample of ~2000 AGNs from a multi-tiered survey including the CDFS, AEGIS-XD, COSMOS, and XMM-XXL fields. The spectra of individual X-ray sources are analyzed using a Bayesian methodology with a physically realistic model to infer the posterior distribution of the hydrogen column density and intrinsic X-ray luminosity. We develop a novel non-parametric method that allows us to robustly infer the distribution of the AGN population in X-ray luminosity, redshift, and obscuring column density, relying only on minimal smoothness assumptions. Our analysis properly incorporates uncertainties from low count spectra, photometric redshift measurements, association incompleteness, and the limited sample size. We find that obscured AGNs with N H > 1022 cm-2 account for {77}+4-5% of the number density and luminosity density of the accretion supermassive black hole population with L X > 1043 erg s-1, averaged over cosmic time. Compton-thick AGNs account for approximately half the number and luminosity density of the obscured population, and {38}+8-7% of the total. We also find evidence that the evolution is obscuration dependent, with the strongest evolution around N H ≈ 1023 cm-2. We highlight this by measuring the obscured fraction in Compton-thin AGNs, which increases toward z ~ 3, where it is 25% higher than the local value. In contrast, the fraction of Compton-thick AGNs is consistent with being constant at ≈35%, independent of redshift and accretion luminosity. We discuss our findings in the context of existing models and conclude that the observed evolution is, to first order, a side effect of anti-hierarchical growth.

Density effect on great tit (Parus major) clutch size intensifies in a polluted environment.

PubMed

Eeva, Tapio; Lehikoinen, Esa

2013-12-01

Long-term data on a great tit (Parus major) population breeding in a metal-polluted zone around a copper-nickel smelter indicate that, against expectations, the clutch size of this species is decreasing even though metal emissions in the area have decreased considerably over the past two decades. Here, we document long-term population-level changes in the clutch size of P. major and explore if changes in population density, population numbers of competing species, timing of breeding, breeding habitat, or female age distribution can explain decreasing clutch sizes. Clutch size of P. major decreased by one egg in the polluted zone during the past 21 years, while there was no significant change in clutch size in the unpolluted reference zone over this time period. Density of P. major nests was similar in both environments but increased threefold during the study period in both areas (from 0.8 to 2.4 nest/ha). In the polluted zone, clutch size has decreased as a response to a considerable increase in population density, while a corresponding density change in the unpolluted zone did not have such an effect. The other factors studied did not explain the clutch size trend. Fledgling numbers in the polluted environment have been relatively low since the beginning of the study period, and they do not show a corresponding decrease to that noted for the clutch size over the same time period. Our study shows that responses of commonly measured life-history parameters to anthropogenic pollution depend on the structure of the breeding population. Interactions between pollution and intrinsic population characters should therefore be taken into account in environmental studies.

The Role of Climatic and Density Dependent Factors in Shaping Mosquito Population Dynamics: The Case of Culex pipiens in Northwestern Italy

PubMed Central

Giacobini, Mario; Pugliese, Andrea; Merler, Stefano; Rosà, Roberto

2016-01-01

Culex pipiens mosquito is a species widely spread across Europe and represents a competent vector for many arboviruses such as West Nile virus (WNV), which has been recently circulating in many European countries, causing hundreds of human cases. In order to identify the main determinants of the high heterogeneity in Cx. pipiens abundance observed in Piedmont region (Northwestern Italy) among different seasons, we developed a density-dependent stochastic model that takes explicitly into account the role played by temperature, which affects both developmental and mortality rates of different life stages. The model was calibrated with a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach exploring the likelihood of recorded capture data gathered in the study area from 2000 to 2011; in this way, we disentangled the role played by different seasonal eco-climatic factors in shaping the vector abundance. Illustrative simulations have been performed to forecast likely changes if temperature or density–dependent inputs would change. Our analysis suggests that inter-seasonal differences in the mosquito dynamics are largely driven by different temporal patterns of temperature and seasonal-specific larval carrying capacities. Specifically, high temperatures during early spring hasten the onset of the breeding season and increase population abundance in that period, while, high temperatures during the summer can decrease population size by increasing adult mortality. Higher densities of adult mosquitoes are associated with higher larval carrying capacities, which are positively correlated with spring precipitations. Finally, an increase in larval carrying capacity is expected to proportionally increase adult mosquito abundance. PMID:27105065

Rehabilitating sea otters: Feeling good versus being effective; Chapter 20

USGS Publications Warehouse

Estes, James A.; Tinker, M. Tim; Kareiva, Peter; Marvier, Michelle; Silliman, Brian

2017-01-01

This chapter examines the complexities of assessing the merits and drawbacks of wildlife rehabilitation. Wildlife rehabilitation is often costly, and the resulting benefits differ depending on whether one’s interest is in the welfare of individual animals or conserving populations. Two examples of this dilemma include the rehabilitation of oiled sea otters following the Exxon Valdez spill in Prince William Sound, Alaska, and the rehabilitation of stranded sea otter pups in central California. In the first example, substantial financial investment resulted in little or no benefits for population conservation. In the second example, the potential for population-level benefits is context dependent: in populations near carrying capacity the conservation impacts are negligible, whereas in isolated, low-density populations rehabilitation and release can be an effective conservation tool. Wildlife rehabilitation is valued by people for various reasons, but recognizing and acknowledging the difference between individual and population welfare is an important step toward effective wildlife conservation.

Positive density-dependent growth supports costs sharing hypothesis and population density sensing in a manipulative parasite.

PubMed

Gopko, Mikhail; Mikheev, Victor N; Taskinen, Jouni

2017-09-01

Parasites manipulate their hosts' phenotype to increase their own fitness. Like any evolutionary adaptation, parasitic manipulations should be costly. Though it is difficult to measure costs of the manipulation directly, they can be evaluated using an indirect approach. For instance, theory suggests that as the parasite infrapopulation grows, the investment of individual parasites in host manipulation decreases, because of cost sharing. Another assumption is that in environments where manipulation does not pay off for the parasite, it can decrease its investment in the manipulation to save resources. We experimentally infected rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss with the immature larvae of the trematode Diplostomum pseudospathaceum, to test these assumptions. Immature D. pseudospathaceum metacercariae are known for their ability to manipulate the behaviour of their host enhancing its anti-predator defenses to avoid concomitant predation. We found that the growth rate of individual parasites in rainbow trout increased with the infrapopulation size (positive density-dependence) suggesting cost sharing. Moreover, parasites adjusted their growth to the intensity of infection within the eye lens where they were localized suggesting population density sensing. Results of this study support the hypothesis that macroparasites can adjust their growth rate and manipulation investment according to cost sharing level and infrapopulation size.

Dissipation-induced dipole blockade and antiblockade in driven Rydberg systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, Jeremy T.; Boulier, Thomas; Magnan, Eric; Goldschmidt, Elizabeth A.; Wilson, Ryan M.; Rolston, Steven L.; Porto, James V.; Gorshkov, Alexey V.

2018-02-01

We study theoretically and experimentally the competing blockade and antiblockade effects induced by spontaneously generated contaminant Rydberg atoms in driven Rydberg systems. These contaminant atoms provide a source of strong dipole-dipole interactions and play a crucial role in the system's behavior. We study this problem theoretically using two different approaches. The first is a cumulant expansion approximation, in which we ignore third-order and higher connected correlations. Using this approach for the case of resonant drive, a many-body blockade radius picture arises, and we find qualitative agreement with previous experimental results. We further predict that as the atomic density is increased, the Rydberg population's dependence on Rabi frequency will transition from quadratic to linear dependence at lower Rabi frequencies. We study this behavior experimentally by observing this crossover at two different atomic densities. We confirm that the larger density system has a smaller crossover Rabi frequency than the smaller density system. The second theoretical approach is a set of phenomenological inhomogeneous rate equations. We compare the results of our rate-equation model to the experimental observations [E. A. Goldschmidt et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 113001 (2016), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.116.113001] and find that these rate equations provide quantitatively good scaling behavior of the steady-state Rydberg population for both resonant and off-resonant drives.

The importance of multi-level Rydberg interaction in electric field tuned Förster resonances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kondo, Jorge; Booth, Donald; Gonçalves, Luis; Shaffer, James; Marcassa, Luis

2016-05-01

Many-body physics has been investigated in ultracold Rydberg atom systems, mainly because important parameters, such as density and interaction strength, can be controlled. Several puzzling experimental observations on Förster resonances have been associated to many-body effects, usually by comparison to complex theoretical models. In this work, we investigate the dc electric field dependence of 2 Förster resonant processes in ultracold 85 Rb, 37D5 / 2 + 37D5 / 2 --> 35 L(L = O , Q) + 39P3 / 2 , as a function of the atomic density in an optical dipole trap. At low densities, the 39 P yield as a function of electric field exhibits resonances. With increasing density, the linewidths increase until the peaks merge. Even under these extreme conditions, where many-body effects were expected to play a role, the 39 P population depends quadratically on the total Rydberg atom population. In order to explain our results, we implement a theoretical model which takes into account the multi-level character of the interactions and Rydberg atom blockade process using only atom pair interactions. The comparison between the experimental data and the model is very good, suggesting that the Förster resonant processes are dominated by 2-body interactions. This work is supported by FAPESP, AFOSR, NSF, INCT-IQ and CNPq.

Implicit assumptions underlying simple harvest models of marine bird populations can mislead environmental management decisions.

PubMed

O'Brien, Susan H; Cook, Aonghais S C P; Robinson, Robert A

2017-10-01

Assessing the potential impact of additional mortality from anthropogenic causes on animal populations requires detailed demographic information. However, these data are frequently lacking, making simple algorithms, which require little data, appealing. Because of their simplicity, these algorithms often rely on implicit assumptions, some of which may be quite restrictive. Potential Biological Removal (PBR) is a simple harvest model that estimates the number of additional mortalities that a population can theoretically sustain without causing population extinction. However, PBR relies on a number of implicit assumptions, particularly around density dependence and population trajectory that limit its applicability in many situations. Among several uses, it has been widely employed in Europe in Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA), to examine the acceptability of potential effects of offshore wind farms on marine bird populations. As a case study, we use PBR to estimate the number of additional mortalities that a population with characteristics typical of a seabird population can theoretically sustain. We incorporated this level of additional mortality within Leslie matrix models to test assumptions within the PBR algorithm about density dependence and current population trajectory. Our analyses suggest that the PBR algorithm identifies levels of mortality which cause population declines for most population trajectories and forms of population regulation. Consequently, we recommend that practitioners do not use PBR in an EIA context for offshore wind energy developments. Rather than using simple algorithms that rely on potentially invalid implicit assumptions, we recommend use of Leslie matrix models for assessing the impact of additional mortality on a population, enabling the user to explicitly define assumptions and test their importance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multilevel Spatial Structure Impacts on the Pollination Services of Comarum palustre (Rosaceae)

PubMed Central

Somme, Laurent; Mayer, Carolin; Jacquemart, Anne-Laure

2014-01-01

Habitat destruction and fragmentation accelerate pollinator decline, consequently disrupting ecosystem processes such as pollination. To date, the impacts of multilevel spatial structure on pollination services have rarely been addressed. We focused on the effects of population spatial structure on the pollination services of Comarum palustre at three levels (i.e. within-population, between-populations and landscape). For three years, we investigated 14 Belgian populations, which differed in their within-population flower density, population surface, closure (i.e. proportion of the population edge that consisted of woody elements) and isolation (i.e. percentage of woody area cover within a 500 m radius from the population centre). We tested whether these spatial characteristics impact on pollinator abundance and visitation rate and thus, reproductive success of C. palustre. Insects were observed in 15 randomly-chosen plots in each population. We tested for pollen limitation with supplemental hand-cross pollination. Bumble bees and solitary bees were the major pollinators through all populations. Within populations, plots with high flower densities attracted high numbers of bumble bees and other insects. High bumble bee and solitary bee abundance was observed in populations presenting high proportions of woody edges and in populations within landscapes presenting high proportions of woody areas. Seed set resulting from open pollination varied with bumble bee and solitary bee visitation rate, leading to increased pollen limitation when pollinators were scarce. Since the reproductive success depended on the visitation rate of the main pollinators, which depended on multilevel spatial structure, wetland management plans should pay special attention to favour a mosaic of biotopes, including nesting sites and food resources for insects. This study particularly supports the relevance of a mix wetlands and woody habitats to bees. PMID:24915450

Multilevel spatial structure impacts on the pollination services of Comarum palustre (Rosaceae).

PubMed

Somme, Laurent; Mayer, Carolin; Jacquemart, Anne-Laure

2014-01-01

Habitat destruction and fragmentation accelerate pollinator decline, consequently disrupting ecosystem processes such as pollination. To date, the impacts of multilevel spatial structure on pollination services have rarely been addressed. We focused on the effects of population spatial structure on the pollination services of Comarum palustre at three levels (i.e. within-population, between-populations and landscape). For three years, we investigated 14 Belgian populations, which differed in their within-population flower density, population surface, closure (i.e. proportion of the population edge that consisted of woody elements) and isolation (i.e. percentage of woody area cover within a 500 m radius from the population centre). We tested whether these spatial characteristics impact on pollinator abundance and visitation rate and thus, reproductive success of C. palustre. Insects were observed in 15 randomly-chosen plots in each population. We tested for pollen limitation with supplemental hand-cross pollination. Bumble bees and solitary bees were the major pollinators through all populations. Within populations, plots with high flower densities attracted high numbers of bumble bees and other insects. High bumble bee and solitary bee abundance was observed in populations presenting high proportions of woody edges and in populations within landscapes presenting high proportions of woody areas. Seed set resulting from open pollination varied with bumble bee and solitary bee visitation rate, leading to increased pollen limitation when pollinators were scarce. Since the reproductive success depended on the visitation rate of the main pollinators, which depended on multilevel spatial structure, wetland management plans should pay special attention to favour a mosaic of biotopes, including nesting sites and food resources for insects. This study particularly supports the relevance of a mix wetlands and woody habitats to bees.

ECOLOGICAL DETERMINANTS OF AVIAN INFLUENZA VIRUS, WEST NILE VIRUS, AND AVIAN PARAMYXOVIRUS INFECTION AND ANTIBODY STATUS IN BLUE-WINGED TEAL (ANAS DISCORS) IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

PubMed

Nallar, Rodolfo; Papp, Zsuzsanna; Leighton, Frederick A; Epp, Tasha; Pasick, John; Berhane, Yohannes; Lindsay, Robbin; Soos, Catherine

2016-01-01

The Canadian prairies are one of the most important breeding and staging areas for migratory waterfowl in North America. Hundreds of thousands of waterfowl of numerous species from multiple flyways converge in and disperse from this region annually; therefore this region may be a key area for potential intra- and interspecific spread of infectious pathogens among migratory waterfowl in the Americas. Using Blue-winged Teal (Anas discors, BWTE), which have the most extensive migratory range among waterfowl species, we investigated ecologic risk factors for infection and antibody status to avian influenza virus (AIV), West Nile virus (WNV), and avian paramyxovirus-1 (APMV-1) in the three prairie provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba) prior to fall migration. We used generalized linear models to examine infection or evidence of exposure in relation to host (age, sex, body condition, exposure to other infections), spatiotemporal (year, province), population-level (local population densities of BWTE, total waterfowl densities), and environmental (local pond densities) factors. The probability of AIV infection in BWTE was associated with host factors (e.g., age and antibody status), population-level factors (e.g., local BWTE population density), and year. An interaction between age and AIV antibody status showed that hatch year birds with antibodies to AIV were more likely to be infected, suggesting an antibody response to an active infection. Infection with AIV was positively associated with local BWTE density, supporting the hypothesis of density-dependent transmission. The presence of antibodies to WNV and APMV-1 was positively associated with age and varied among years. Furthermore, the probability of being WNV antibody positive was positively associated with pond density rather than host population density, likely because ponds provide suitable breeding habitat for mosquitoes, the primary vectors for transmission. Our findings highlight the importance of spatiotemporal, environmental, and host factors at the individual and population levels, all of which may influence dynamics of these and other viruses in wild waterfowl populations.

The impact of roads on the demography of grizzly bears in Alberta.

PubMed

Boulanger, John; Stenhouse, Gordon B

2014-01-01

One of the principal factors that have reduced grizzly bear populations has been the creation of human access into grizzly bear habitat by roads built for resource extraction. Past studies have documented mortality and distributional changes of bears relative to roads but none have attempted to estimate the direct demographic impact of roads in terms of both survival rates, reproductive rates, and the interaction of reproductive state of female bears with survival rate. We applied a combination of survival and reproductive models to estimate demographic parameters for threatened grizzly bear populations in Alberta. Instead of attempting to estimate mean trend we explored factors which caused biological and spatial variation in population trend. We found that sex and age class survival was related to road density with subadult bears being most vulnerable to road-based mortality. A multi-state reproduction model found that females accompanied by cubs of the year and/or yearling cubs had lower survival rates compared to females with two year olds or no cubs. A demographic model found strong spatial gradients in population trend based upon road density. Threshold road densities needed to ensure population stability were estimated to further refine targets for population recovery of grizzly bears in Alberta. Models that considered lowered survival of females with dependant offspring resulted in lower road density thresholds to ensure stable bear populations. Our results demonstrate likely spatial variation in population trend and provide an example how demographic analysis can be used to refine and direct conservation measures for threatened species.

The Impact of Roads on the Demography of Grizzly Bears in Alberta

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

One of the principal factors that have reduced grizzly bear populations has been the creation of human access into grizzly bear habitat by roads built for resource extraction. Past studies have documented mortality and distributional changes of bears relative to roads but none have attempted to estimate the direct demographic impact of roads in terms of both survival rates, reproductive rates, and the interaction of reproductive state of female bears with survival rate. We applied a combination of survival and reproductive models to estimate demographic parameters for threatened grizzly bear populations in Alberta. Instead of attempting to estimate mean trend we explored factors which caused biological and spatial variation in population trend. We found that sex and age class survival was related to road density with subadult bears being most vulnerable to road-based mortality. A multi-state reproduction model found that females accompanied by cubs of the year and/or yearling cubs had lower survival rates compared to females with two year olds or no cubs. A demographic model found strong spatial gradients in population trend based upon road density. Threshold road densities needed to ensure population stability were estimated to further refine targets for population recovery of grizzly bears in Alberta. Models that considered lowered survival of females with dependant offspring resulted in lower road density thresholds to ensure stable bear populations. Our results demonstrate likely spatial variation in population trend and provide an example how demographic analysis can be used to refine and direct conservation measures for threatened species. PMID:25532035

Pollinator visitation in populations of tristylous Eichhornia paniculata in northeastern Brazil.

PubMed

Husband, Brian C; Barrett, Spencer C H

1992-03-01

The frequencies of floral morphs in populations of tristylous Eichhornia paniculata often deviate from the theoretical expectation of equality. This variation is associated with the breakdown of tristyly and the evolution of self-fertilization. Differences in morph frequencies could result from selection pressures due to variable levels of insect visitation to populations and contrasting foraging behavior among the floral morphs. We estimated pollinator densities in 16 populations and quantified visitation sequences to morphs in five populations of E. paniculata in northeastern Brazil. Foraging behavior among floral morphs was measured as the frequency of visits to morphs relative to their frequency in the population (preference) and number of flights between inflorescences of the same versus different morphs (constancy). Pollinator density (number/m 2 /minute) was not correlated with population size, plant density or morph diversity. Pollinator densities varied most among populations of less than 200 plants. Whether pollinators discriminated among the morphs, depended on whether they primarily collected nectar or pollen. In four populations, nectar-feeding bees (Ancyloscelis and Florilegus spp.) and butterflies showed no consistent preference or constancy among the morphs. In contrast, pollen-collecting bees (Trigona sp.) visited a lower proportion of longstyled inflorescences than expected and tended to visit more mid-and short-styled inflorescences in succession, once they were encountered. Pollinator constancy for morphs did not result from differences in inflorescence production or spatial patchiness among the morphs. Although non-random pollinator visitation to morphs in heterostylous populations could potentially affect mating and hence morph frequencies, the observed visitation patterns in this study do not provide evidence that pollinators play a major role in influencing floral morph frequencies.

Accuracy, precision, and economic efficiency for three methods of thrips (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) population density assessment.

PubMed

Sutherland, Andrew M; Parrella, Michael P

2011-08-01

Western flower thrips, Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande) (Thysanoptera: Thripidae), is a major horticultural pest and an important vector of plant viruses in many parts of the world. Methods for assessing thrips population density for pest management decision support are often inaccurate or imprecise due to thrips' positive thigmotaxis, small size, and naturally aggregated populations. Two established methods, flower tapping and an alcohol wash, were compared with a novel method, plant desiccation coupled with passive trapping, using accuracy, precision and economic efficiency as comparative variables. Observed accuracy was statistically similar and low (37.8-53.6%) for all three methods. Flower tapping was the least expensive method, in terms of person-hours, whereas the alcohol wash method was the most expensive. Precision, expressed by relative variation, depended on location within the greenhouse, location on greenhouse benches, and the sampling week, but it was generally highest for the flower tapping and desiccation methods. Economic efficiency, expressed by relative net precision, was highest for the flower tapping method and lowest for the alcohol wash method. Advantages and disadvantages are discussed for all three methods used. If relative density assessment methods such as these can all be assumed to accurately estimate a constant proportion of absolute density, then high precision becomes the methodological goal in terms of measuring insect population density, decision making for pest management, and pesticide efficacy assessments.

Land use transportation interaction : an examination of the 1995 NPTS data

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-10-01

Greater population density is associated with decreasing annual miles driven, greater bus availability, decreased dependency on single occupancy vehicles and increased use of transit. The private automobile is still the dominant mode of travel althou...

The relation between pre-eruptive bubble size distribution, ash particle morphology, and their internal density: Implications to volcanic ash transport and dispersion models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Proussevitch, Alexander

2014-05-01

Parameterization of volcanic ash transport and dispersion (VATD) models strongly depends on particle morphology and their internal properties. Shape of ash particles affects terminal fall velocities (TFV) and, mostly, dispersion. Internal density combined with particle size has a very strong impact on TFV and ultimately on the rate of ash cloud thinning and particle sedimentation on the ground. Unlike other parameters, internal particle density cannot be measured directly because of the micron scale sizes of fine ash particles, but we demonstrate that it varies greatly depending on the particle size. Small simple type ash particles (fragments of bubble walls, 5-20 micron size) do not contain whole large magmatic bubbles inside and their internal density is almost the same as that of volcanic glass matrix. On the other side, the larger compound type ash particles (>40 microns for silicic fine ashes) always contain some bubbles or the whole spectra of bubble size distribution (BSD), i.e. bubbles of all sizes, bringing their internal density down as compared to simple ash. So, density of the larger ash particles is a function of the void fraction inside them (magmatic bubbles) which, in turn, is controlled by BSD. Volcanic ash is a product of the fragmentation of magmatic foam formed by pre-eruptive bubble population and characterized by BSD. The latter can now be measured from bubble imprints on ash particle surfaces using stereo-scanning electron microscopy (SSEM) and BubbleMaker software developed at UNH, or using traditional high-resolution X-Ray tomography. In this work we present the mathematical and statistical formulation for this problem connecting internal ash density with particle size and BSD, and demonstrate how the TFV of the ash population is affected by variation of particle density.

Density Shock Waves in Confined Microswimmers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsang, Alan Cheng Hou; Kanso, Eva

2016-01-01

Motile and driven particles confined in microfluidic channels exhibit interesting emergent behavior, from propagating density bands to density shock waves. A deeper understanding of the physical mechanisms responsible for these emergent structures is relevant to a number of physical and biomedical applications. Here, we study the formation of density shock waves in the context of an idealized model of microswimmers confined in a narrow channel and subject to a uniform external flow. Interestingly, these density shock waves exhibit a transition from "subsonic" with compression at the back to "supersonic" with compression at the front of the population as the intensity of the external flow increases. This behavior is the result of a nontrivial interplay between hydrodynamic interactions and geometric confinement, and it is confirmed by a novel quasilinear wave model that properly captures the dependence of the shock formation on the external flow. These findings can be used to guide the development of novel mechanisms for controlling the emergent density distribution and the average population speed, with potentially profound implications on various processes in industry and biotechnology, such as the transport and sorting of cells in flow channels.

Routing of radioactive shipments in networks with time-varying costs and curfews

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bowler, L.A.; Mahmassani, H.S.

This research examines routing of radioactive shipments in highway networks with time-dependent travel times and population densities. A time-dependent least-cost path (TDLCP) algorithm that uses a label-correcting approach is adapted to include curfews and waiting at nodes. A method is developed to estimate time-dependent population densities, which are required to estimate risk associated with the use of a particular highway link at a particular time. The TDLCP algorithm is implemented for example networks and used to examine policy questions related to radioactive shipments. It is observed that when only Interstate highway facilities are used to transport these materials, a shipmentmore » must go through many cities and has difficulty avoiding all of them during their rush hour periods. Decreases in risk, increased departure time flexibility, and modest increases in travel times are observed when primary and/or secondary roads are included in the network. Based on the results of the example implementation, the suitability of the TDLCP algorithm for strategic nuclear material and general radioactive material shipments is demonstrated.« less

Modelling the mating system of polar bears: a mechanistic approach to the Allee effect.

PubMed

Molnár, Péter K; Derocher, Andrew E; Lewis, Mark A; Taylor, Mitchell K

2008-01-22

Allee effects may render exploited animal populations extinction prone, but empirical data are often lacking to describe the circumstances leading to an Allee effect. Arbitrary assumptions regarding Allee effects could lead to erroneous management decisions so that predictive modelling approaches are needed that identify the circumstances leading to an Allee effect before such a scenario occurs. We present a predictive approach of Allee effects for polar bears where low population densities, an unpredictable habitat and harvest-depleted male populations result in infrequent mating encounters. We develop a mechanistic model for the polar bear mating system that predicts the proportion of fertilized females at the end of the mating season given population density and operational sex ratio. The model is parametrized using pairing data from Lancaster Sound, Canada, and describes the observed pairing dynamics well. Female mating success is shown to be a nonlinear function of the operational sex ratio, so that a sudden and rapid reproductive collapse could occur if males are severely depleted. The operational sex ratio where an Allee effect is expected is dependent on population density. We focus on the prediction of Allee effects in polar bears but our approach is also applicable to other species.

Competition in size-structured populations: mechanisms inducing cohort formation and population cycles.

PubMed

de Roos, André M; Persson, Lennart

2003-02-01

In this paper we investigate the consequences of size-dependent competition among the individuals of a consumer population by analyzing the dynamic properties of a physiologically structured population model. Only 2 size-classes of individuals are distinguished: juveniles and adults. Juveniles and adults both feed on one and the same resource and hence interact by means of exploitative competition. Juvenile individuals allocate all assimilated energy into development and mature on reaching a fixed developmental threshold. The combination of this fixed threshold and the resource-dependent developmental rate, implies that the juvenile delay between birth and the onset of reproduction may vary in time. Adult individuals allocate all assimilated energy to reproduction. Mortality of both juveniles and adults is assumed to be inversely proportional to the amount of energy assimilated. In this setting we study how the dynamics of the population are influenced by the relative foraging capabilities of juveniles and adults. In line with results that we previously obtained in size-structured consumer-resource models with pulsed reproduction, population cycles primarily occur when either juveniles or adults have a distinct competitive advantage. When adults have a larger per capita feeding rate and are hence competitively superior to juveniles, population oscillations occur that are primarily induced by the fact that the duration of the juvenile period changes with changing food conditions. These cycles do not occur when the juvenile delay is a fixed parameter. When juveniles are competitively superior, two different types of population fluctuations can occur: (1) rapid, low-amplitude fluctuations having a period of half the juvenile delay and (2) slow, large-amplitude fluctuations characterized by a period, which is roughly equal to the juvenile delay. The analysis of simplified versions of the structured model indicates that these two types of oscillations also occur if mortality and/or development is independent of food density, i.e. in a situation with a constant juvenile developmental delay and a constant, food-independent background mortality. Thus, the oscillations that occur when juveniles are more competitive are induced by the juvenile delay per se. When juveniles exert a larger foraging pressure on the shared resource, maturation implies an increase not only in adult density, but also in food density and consequently fecundity. Our analysis suggests that this correlation in time between adult density and fecundity is crucial for the occurrence of population cycles when juveniles are competitively superior.

Population dynamics, structure and behavior of Anopheles darlingi in a rural settlement in the Amazon rainforest of Acre, Brazil.

PubMed

Moutinho, Paulo Rufalco; Gil, Luis Herman Soares; Cruz, Rafael Bastos; Ribolla, Paulo Eduardo Martins

2011-06-24

Anopheles darlingi is the major vector of malaria in South America, and its behavior and distribution has epidemiological importance to biomedical research. In Brazil, An. darlingi is found in the northern area of the Amazon basin, where 99.5% of the disease is reported. The study area, known as Ramal do Granada, is a rural settlement inside the Amazon basin in the state of Acre. Population variations and density have been analysed by species behaviour, and molecular analysis has been measured by ND4 mitochondrial gene sequencing. The results show higher density in collections near a recent settlement, suggesting that a high level of colonization decreases the vector presence. The biting activity showed higher activity at twilight and major numbers of mosquitos in the remaining hours of the night in months of high density. From a sample of 110 individual mosquitoes, 18 different haplotypes were presented with a diversity index of 0.895, which is higher than that found in other Anopheles studies. An. darlingi depends on forested regions for their larval and adult survival. In months with higher population density, the presence of mosquitoes persisted in the second part of the night, increasing the vector capacity of the species. Despite the intra-population variation in the transition to rainy season, the seasonal distribution of haplotypes shows no change in the structure population of An. darlingi.

Cannibalism in invasive, native and biocontrol populations of the harlequin ladybird.

PubMed

Tayeh, Ashraf; Estoup, Arnaud; Lombaert, Eric; Guillemaud, Thomas; Kirichenko, Natalia; Lawson-Handley, Lori; De Clercq, Patrick; Facon, Benoît

2014-02-05

Cannibalism is widespread in both vertebrates and invertebrates but its extent is variable between and within species. Cannibalism depends on population density and nutritional conditions, and could be beneficial during colonisation of new environments. Empirical studies are needed to determine whether this trait might facilitate invasion of a new area in natural systems. We investigated whether the propensity for cannibalism in H. axyridis differs both between native and invasive populations and between invasive populations from the core and from the front of the invasive area in Western Europe. We also compared the propensity for cannibalism of these natural populations with that of laboratory-reared biocontrol populations. We measured the cannibalism rates of eggs by first instar larvae and adult females at two different individual densities of ladybirds from three types of population (invasive, native and biocontrol), in laboratory-controlled conditions. Cannibalism was significantly greater in larvae from invasive populations compared to native or biocontrol populations, but there was no difference in cannibalism rates between populations from the core or front of the invaded range. Cannibalism was significantly lower in larvae from biocontrol populations compared to wild (invasive and native) populations. No differences in cannibalism rates of adult females were found between any populations. While high population density significantly increased cannibalism in both larvae and adults, the norm of reaction of cannibalism to individual density did not change significantly during the invasion and/or laboratory rearing processes. This study is the first to provide evidence for a higher propensity for cannibalism in invasive populations compared to native ones. Our experiments also shed light on the difference in cannibalism evolution with respect to life stages. However, we are still at an early stage in understanding the underlying mechanisms and several different research perspectives are needed to determine whether the higher propensity for cannibalism is a general feature of the invasion process.

Cannibalism in invasive, native and biocontrol populations of the harlequin ladybird

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Cannibalism is widespread in both vertebrates and invertebrates but its extent is variable between and within species. Cannibalism depends on population density and nutritional conditions, and could be beneficial during colonisation of new environments. Empirical studies are needed to determine whether this trait might facilitate invasion of a new area in natural systems. We investigated whether the propensity for cannibalism in H. axyridis differs both between native and invasive populations and between invasive populations from the core and from the front of the invasive area in Western Europe. We also compared the propensity for cannibalism of these natural populations with that of laboratory-reared biocontrol populations. We measured the cannibalism rates of eggs by first instar larvae and adult females at two different individual densities of ladybirds from three types of population (invasive, native and biocontrol), in laboratory-controlled conditions. Results Cannibalism was significantly greater in larvae from invasive populations compared to native or biocontrol populations, but there was no difference in cannibalism rates between populations from the core or front of the invaded range. Cannibalism was significantly lower in larvae from biocontrol populations compared to wild (invasive and native) populations. No differences in cannibalism rates of adult females were found between any populations. While high population density significantly increased cannibalism in both larvae and adults, the norm of reaction of cannibalism to individual density did not change significantly during the invasion and/or laboratory rearing processes. Conclusion This study is the first to provide evidence for a higher propensity for cannibalism in invasive populations compared to native ones. Our experiments also shed light on the difference in cannibalism evolution with respect to life stages. However, we are still at an early stage in understanding the underlying mechanisms and several different research perspectives are needed to determine whether the higher propensity for cannibalism is a general feature of the invasion process. PMID:24495338

Temperature and population density: interactional effects of environmental factors on phenotypic plasticity, immune defenses, and disease resistance in an insect pest.

PubMed

Silva, Farley W S; Elliot, Simon L

2016-06-01

Temperature and crowding are key environmental factors mediating the transmission and epizooty of infectious disease in ectotherm animals. The host physiology may be altered in a temperature-dependent manner and thus affects the pathogen development and course of diseases within an individual and host population, or the transmission rates (or infectivity) of pathogens shift linearly with the host population density. To our understanding, the knowledge of interactive and synergistic effects of temperature and population density on the host-pathogen system is limited. Here, we tested the interactional effects of these environmental factors on phenotypic plasticity, immune defenses, and disease resistance in the velvetbean caterpillar Anticarsia gemmatalis . Upon egg hatching, caterpillars were reared in thermostat-controlled chambers in a 2 × 4 factorial design: density (1 or 8 caterpillars/pot) and temperature (20, 24, 28, or 32°C). Of the immune defenses assessed, encapsulation response was directly affected by none of the environmental factors; capsule melanization increased with temperature in both lone- and group-reared caterpillars, although the lone-reared ones presented the most evident response, and hemocyte numbers decreased with temperature regardless of the population density. Temperature, but not population density, affected considerably the time from inoculation to death of velvetbean caterpillar. Thus, velvetbean caterpillars succumbed to Anticarsia gemmatalis multiple nucleopolyhedrovirus (AgMNPV) more quickly at higher temperatures than at lower temperatures. As hypothesized, temperature likely affected caterpillars' movement rates, and thus the contact between conspecifics, which in turn affected the phenotypic expression of group-reared caterpillars. Our results suggest that environmental factors, mainly temperature, strongly affect both the course of disease in velvetbean caterpillar population and its defenses against pathogens. As a soybean pest, velvetbean caterpillar may increase its damage on soybean fields under a scenario of global warming as caterpillars may reach the developmental resistance faster, and thus decrease their susceptibility to biological control by AgMNPV.

Density-mediated, context-dependent consumer-resource interactions between ants and extrafloral nectar plants.

PubMed

Chamberlain, Scott A; Holland, J Nathaniel

2008-05-01

Interspecific interactions are often mediated by the interplay between resource supply and consumer density. The supply of a resource and a consumer's density response to it may in turn yield context-dependent use of other resources. Such consumer-resource interactions occur not only for predator-prey and competitive interactions, but for mutualistic ones as well. For example, consumer-resource interactions between ants and extrafloral nectar (EFN) plants are often mutualistic, as EFN resources attract and reward ants which protect plants from herbivory. Yet, ants also commonly exploit floral resources, leading to antagonistic consumer-resource interactions by disrupting pollination and plant reproduction. EFN resources associated with mutualistic ant-plant interactions may also mediate antagonistic ant-flower interactions through the aggregative density response of ants on plants, which could either exacerbate ant-flower interactions or alternatively satiate and distract ants from floral resources. In this study, we examined how EFN resources mediate the density response of ants on senita cacti in the Sonoran Desert and their context-dependent use of floral resources. Removal of EFN resources reduced the aggregative density of ants on plants, both on hourly and daily time scales. Yet, the increased aggregative ant density on plants with EFN resources decreased rather than increased ant use of floral resources, including contacts with and time spent in flowers. Behavioral assays showed no confounding effect of floral deterrents on ant-flower interactions. Thus, ant use of floral resources depends on the supply of EFN resources, which mediates the potential for both mutualistic and antagonistic interactions by increasing the aggregative density of ants protecting plants, while concurrently distracting ants from floral resources. Nevertheless, only certain years and populations of study showed an increase in plant reproduction through herbivore protection or ant distraction from floral resources. Despite pronounced effects of EFN resources mediating the aggregative density of ants on plants and their context-dependent use of floral resources, consumer-resource interactions remained largely commensalistic.

Dying like rabbits: general determinants of spatio-temporal variability in survival.

PubMed

Tablado, Zulima; Revilla, Eloy; Palomares, Francisco

2012-01-01

1. Identifying general patterns of how and why survival rates vary across space and time is necessary to truly understand population dynamics of a species. However, this is not an easy task given the complexity and interactions of processes involved, and the interpopulation differences in main survival determinants. 2. Here, using European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) as a model and information from local studies, we investigated whether we could make inferences about trends and drivers of survival of a species that are generalizable to large spatio-temporal scales. To do this, we first focused on overall survival and then examined cause-specific mortalities, mainly predation and diseases, which may lead to those patterns. 3. Our results show that within the large-scale variability in rabbit survival, there exist general patterns that are explained by the integration of factors previously known to be important at the local level (i.e. age, climate, diseases, predation or density dependence). We found that both inter- and intrastudy survival rates increased in magnitude and decreased in variability as rabbits grow old, although this tendency was less pronounced in populations with epidemic diseases. Some causes leading to these higher mortalities in young rabbits could be the stronger effect of rainfall at those ages, as well as, other death sources like malnutrition or infanticide. 4. Predation is also greater for newborns and juveniles, especially in population without diseases. Apart from the effect of diseases, predation patterns also depended on factors, such as, density, season, and type and density of predators. Finally, we observed that infectious diseases also showed general relationships with climate, breeding (i.e. new susceptible rabbits) and age, although the association type varied between myxomatosis and rabbit haemorrhagic disease. 5. In conclusion, large-scale patterns of spatio-temporal variability in rabbit survival emerge from the combination of different factors that interrelate both directly and through density dependence. This highlights the importance of performing more comprehensive studies to reveal combined effects and complex relationships that help us to better understand the mechanisms underlying population dynamics. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Temporal variation in life-history traits of the clam Tivela mactroides (Bivalvia: Veneridae): Density-dependent processes in sandy beaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turra, Alexander; Petracco, Marcelo; Amaral, A. Cecilia Z.; Denadai, Márcia R.

2014-10-01

Temporal variation in the structure and dynamics of a population of Tivela mactroides was examined over two periods (2003-2004 and 2007-2008) in the southern part of Caraguatatuba Bay, southeastern Brazil. During the first period from January 2003 to October 2004, sampling was conducted monthly. Sampling in the second period was performed in the summer (January and February 2007 and 2008) and winter (July and August 2007 and 2008). The von Bertalanffy growth function was applied to estimate growth parameters for both periods from length-frequency distributions. Production was determined using the mass-specific growth rate method. Results indicated that the mean abundance (±SE) of T. mactroides varied sharply between the two periods, with an increase of almost 150 times from 2003 to 2004 (8.67·102 ± 0.83·102 ind m-1) to 2007-2008 (1.25·105 ± 3.33·104 ind m-1). The higher abundance in the second period was related to successful recruitment events. While the mean biomass and the production were higher in the second (5.43 ± 0.87 kg AFDM m-1 and 7.89 kg AFDM m-1 yr-1) than in the first period (0.18 ± 0.02 kg AFDM m-1 and 0.18 kg AFDM m-1 yr-1), lower values of shell length, curvature parameter, asymptotic length of the VBGF, and the growth index phi-prime in 2007-2008 (17.57 ± 1.35 mm; K = 0.40 yr-1; L∞ = 38.60 mm, ϕ‧ = 2.78) than in 2003-2004 (26.21 ± 1.21 mm; K = 1.00 yr-1; L∞ = 40.75 mm, ϕ‧ = 3.22) were related to a strongly density-dependent growth process in the second period. The oscillation in growth observed in the second, but not in the first period also indicates a process of density-dependent growth. These sharp temporal variations in population parameters of T. mactroides suggest the occurrence of density-dependent processes, and reinforce the importance of these processes in structuring sandy-beach populations.

Dynamics of habitat selection in birds: adaptive response to nest predation depends on multiple factors.

PubMed

Devries, J H; Clark, R G; Armstrong, L M

2018-05-01

According to theory, habitat selection by organisms should reflect underlying habitat-specific fitness consequences and, in birds, reproductive success has a strong impact on population growth in many species. Understanding processes affecting habitat selection also is critically important for guiding conservation initiatives. Northern pintails (Anas acuta) are migratory, temperate-nesting birds that breed in greatest concentrations in the prairies of North America and their population remains below conservation goals. Habitat loss and changing land use practices may have decoupled formerly reliable fitness cues with respect to nest habitat choices. We used data from 62 waterfowl nesting study sites across prairie Canada (1997-2009) to examine nest survival, a primary fitness metric, at multiple scales, in combination with estimates of habitat selection (i.e., nests versus random points), to test for evidence of adaptive habitat choices. We used the same habitat covariates in both analyses. Pintail nest survival varied with nest initiation date, nest habitat, pintail breeding pair density, landscape composition and annual moisture. Selection of nesting habitat reflected patterns in nest survival in some cases, indicating adaptive selection, but strength of habitat selection varied seasonally and depended on population density and landscape composition. Adaptive selection was most evident late in the breeding season, at low breeding densities and in cropland-dominated landscapes. Strikingly, at high breeding density, habitat choice appears to become maladaptive relative to nest predation. At larger spatial scales, the relative availability of habitats with low versus high nest survival, and changing land use practices, may limit the reproductive potential of pintails.

The fall and rise of the Icelandic Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus): a 50-year demographic study on a non-cyclic Arctic fox population.

PubMed

Unnsteinsdottir, E R; Hersteinsson, P; Pálsson, S; Angerbjörn, A

2016-08-01

In territorial species, observed density dependence is often manifest in lowered reproductive output at high population density where individuals have fewer resources or are forced to inhabit low-quality territories. The Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) in Iceland is territorial throughout the year and feeds mostly on birds, since lemmings are absent from the country. Thus, the population does not exhibit short-term population cycles that are evident in most of the species' geographical range. The population has, however, gone through a major long-term fluctuation in population size. Because of the stability in hunting effort and reliable hunting records since 1958, the total number of adult foxes killed annually can be used as an index of population size (N t ). An index of carrying capacity (K) from population growth data for five separate time blocks during 1958-2007 revealed considerable variation in K and allowed a novel definition of population density in terms of K, or N t /K. Correlation analysis suggested that the reproductive rate was largely determined by the proportion of territorial foxes in the population. Variation in litter size and cub mortality was, on the other hand, related to climatic variation. Thus, Arctic foxes in Iceland engage in typical contest competition but can adapt their territory sizes in response to both temporal and spatial variation in carrying capacity, resulting in surprisingly little variation in litter size.

Increased consumer density reduces the strength of neighborhood effects in a model system.

PubMed

Merwin, Andrew C; Underwood, Nora; Inouye, Brian D

2017-11-01

An individual's susceptibility to attack can be influenced by conspecific and heterospecifics neighbors. Predicting how these neighborhood effects contribute to population-level processes such as competition and evolution requires an understanding of how the strength of neighborhood effects is modified by changes in the abundances of both consumers and neighboring resource species. We show for the first time that consumer density can interact with the density and frequency of neighboring organisms to determine the magnitude of neighborhood effects. We used the bean beetle, Callosobruchus maculatus, and two of its host beans, Vigna unguiculata and V. radiata, to perform a response-surface experiment with a range of resource densities and three consumer densities. At low beetle density, damage to beans was reduced with increasing conspecific density (i.e., resource dilution) and damage to the less preferred host, V. unguiculata, was reduced with increasing V. radiata frequency (i.e., frequency-dependent associational resistance). As beetle density increased, however, neighborhood effects were reduced; at the highest beetle densities neither focal nor neighboring resource density nor frequency influenced damage. These findings illustrate the importance of consumer density in mediating indirect effects among resources, and suggest that accounting for consumer density may improve our ability to predict population-level outcomes of neighborhood effects and our use of them in applications such as mixed-crop pest management. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

The impacts of marijuana dispensary density and neighborhood ecology on marijuana abuse and dependence.

PubMed

Mair, Christina; Freisthler, Bridget; Ponicki, William R; Gaidus, Andrew

2015-09-01

As an increasing number of states liberalize cannabis use and develop laws and local policies, it is essential to better understand the impacts of neighborhood ecology and marijuana dispensary density on marijuana use, abuse, and dependence. We investigated associations between marijuana abuse/dependence hospitalizations and community demographic and environmental conditions from 2001 to 2012 in California, as well as cross-sectional associations between local and adjacent marijuana dispensary densities and marijuana hospitalizations. We analyzed panel population data relating hospitalizations coded for marijuana abuse or dependence and assigned to residential ZIP codes in California from 2001 through 2012 (20,219 space-time units) to ZIP code demographic and ecological characteristics. Bayesian space-time misalignment models were used to account for spatial variations in geographic unit definitions over time, while also accounting for spatial autocorrelation using conditional autoregressive priors. We also analyzed cross-sectional associations between marijuana abuse/dependence and the density of dispensaries in local and spatially adjacent ZIP codes in 2012. An additional one dispensary per square mile in a ZIP code was cross-sectionally associated with a 6.8% increase in the number of marijuana hospitalizations (95% credible interval 1.033, 1.105) with a marijuana abuse/dependence code. Other local characteristics, such as the median household income and age and racial/ethnic distributions, were associated with marijuana hospitalizations in cross-sectional and panel analyses. Prevention and intervention programs for marijuana abuse and dependence may be particularly essential in areas of concentrated disadvantage. Policy makers may want to consider regulations that limit the density of dispensaries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Visual counts as an index of White-Tailed Prairie Dog density

USGS Publications Warehouse

Menkens, George E.; Biggins, Dean E.; Anderson, Stanley H.

1990-01-01

Black-footed ferrets (Mustela nigripes) are depended on prairie dogs (Cynomys spp.) for food and shelter and were historically restricted to prairie dog towns (Anderson et al. 1986). Because ferrets and prairie dogs are closely associated, successful ferret management and conservation depends on successful prairie dog management. A critical component of any management program for ferrets will be monitoring prairie dog population dynamics on towns containing ferrets or on towns proposed as ferret reintroduction sites. Three techniques for estimating prairie dog population size and density are counts of plugged and reopened burrows (Tietjen and Matschke 1982), mark-recapture (Otis et al. 1978; Seber 1982, 1986; Menkens and Anderson 1989), and visual counts (Fagerstone and Biggins 1986, Knowles 1986). The technique of plugging burrows and counting the number reopened by prairie dogs is too time and labor intensive for population evaluation on a large number of towns or over large areas. Total burrow counts are not correlated with white-tailed prairie dog (C. leucurus) densities and thus cannot be used for populated evaluation (Menkens et al. 1988). Mark-recapture requires trapping that is expensive and time and labor intensive. Monitoring a large number of prairie dog populations using mark-recapture would be difficult. Alternatively a large number of populations could be monitored in short periods of time using the visual count technique (Fagerstone and Biggins 1986, Knowles 1986). However, the accuracy of visual counts has only been evaluated in a few locations. Thus, it is not known whether the relationship between counts and prairie dog density is consistent throughout the prairie dog's range. Our objective was to evaluate the potential of using visual counts as a rapid means of estimating white-tailed prairie dog density in prairie dog towns throughout Wyoming. We studied 18 white-tailed prairie dog towns in 4 white-tailed prairie dog complexes in Wyoming near Laramie (105°40'W, 41°20'N, 3 grids), Pathfinder reservoir (106°55'W, 42°30'N, 6 grids), Shirley Basin (106°10'W, 42°20'N, 6 grids), and Meeteetse (108°10'W, 44°10'N, 3 grids). All towns were dominated by grasses, forbs, and shrubs (details in Collins and Lichvar 1986). Topography of towns ranged from flat to gently rolling hills.

Comparison of Drive Counts and Mark-Resight As Methods of Population Size Estimation of Highly Dense Sika Deer (Cervus nippon) Populations

PubMed Central

Takeshita, Kazutaka; Yoshida, Tsuyoshi; Igota, Hiromasa; Matsuura, Yukiko

2016-01-01

Assessing temporal changes in abundance indices is an important issue in the management of large herbivore populations. The drive counts method has been frequently used as a deer abundance index in mountainous regions. However, despite an inherent risk for observation errors in drive counts, which increase with deer density, evaluations of the utility of drive counts at a high deer density remain scarce. We compared the drive counts and mark-resight (MR) methods in the evaluation of a highly dense sika deer population (MR estimates ranged between 11 and 53 individuals/km2) on Nakanoshima Island, Hokkaido, Japan, between 1999 and 2006. This deer population experienced two large reductions in density; approximately 200 animals in total were taken from the population through a large-scale population removal and a separate winter mass mortality event. Although the drive counts tracked temporal changes in deer abundance on the island, they overestimated the counts for all years in comparison to the MR method. Increased overestimation in drive count estimates after the winter mass mortality event may be due to a double count derived from increased deer movement and recovery of body condition secondary to the mitigation of density-dependent food limitations. Drive counts are unreliable because they are affected by unfavorable factors such as bad weather, and they are cost-prohibitive to repeat, which precludes the calculation of confidence intervals. Therefore, the use of drive counts to infer the deer abundance needs to be reconsidered. PMID:27711181

Fish community changes in the St. Louis River estuary, Lake Superior, 1989-1996: Is it ruffe or population dynamics?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bronte, Charles R.; Evrard, Lori M.; Brown, William P.; Mayo, Kathleen R.; Edwards, Andrew J.

1998-01-01

Ruffe (Gymnocephalus cernuus) have been implicated in density declines of native species through egg predation and competition for food in some European waters where they were introduced. Density estimates for ruffe and principal native fishes in the St. Louis River estuary (western Lake Superior) were developed for 1989 to 1996 to measure changes in the fish community in response to an unintentional introduction of ruffe. During the study, ruffe density increased and the densities of several native species decreased. The reductions of native stocks to the natural population dynamics of the same species from Chequamegon Bay, Lake Superior (an area with very few ruffe) were developed, where there was a 24-year record of density. Using these data, short- and long-term variations in catch and correlations among species within years were compared, and species-specific distributions were developed of observed trends in abundance of native fishes in Chequamegon Bay indexed by the slopes of densities across years. From these distributions and our observed trend-line slopes from the St. Louis River, probabilities of measuring negative change at the magnitude observed in the St. Louis River were estimated. Compared with trends in Chequamegon Bay, there was a high probability of obtaining the negative slopes measured for most species, which suggests natural population dynamics could explain, the declines rather than interactions with ruffe. Variable recruitment, which was not related to ruffe density, and associated density-dependent changes in mortality likely were responsible for density declines of native species.

The survival benefit of dual dispatch of EMS and fire-fighters in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest may differ depending on population density--a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Nordberg, Per; Jonsson, Martin; Forsberg, Sune; Ringh, Mattias; Fredman, David; Riva, Gabriel; Hasselqvist-Ax, Ingela; Hollenberg, Jacob

2015-05-01

Outcome after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) varies between contexts. Dual dispatching of fire-fighters or police in addition to emergency medical services (EMS) has the potential to increase survival, but the effect in urban vs. rural areas is unknown. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of dual dispatching on response times and outcome in regions with different population density. The study design was a prospective cohort study of EMS-treated OHCAs from 2004 (historical controls, only EMS dispatch) and 2006-2009 (intervention, dual dispatch of EMS and fire-fighters), with data on exact geographical coordinates. Patients were divided into four subgroups depending on population density: rural (<250 persons/km2), suburban (250-2999/km2), urban (3000-5999/km2) and downtown (≥6000/km2). Totally, 2513 OHCAs were included (historical controls, n=571 and intervention, n=1942). Median time to arrival of first unit shortened significantly in all subgroups, ranging from 0.8 to 3.2 min, with the main time gain in the rural area. There were significant differences in 30-day survival between the historical controls vs. the intervention group in the suburban population (3.1% vs. 7.0%, p=0.02) and in downtown (4.1 vs. 14.6, p=0.04). In the urban population the difference was 2.7 vs. 6.9% (p=0.06) and in the rural population (4.7 vs. 5.3, p=0.82). Dual dispatch of fire-fighters and EMS in OHCA significantly reduced response times in all studied regions. The 30-day survival increased significantly in the downtown and suburban populations, while a limited impact was seen in the rural areas. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecologies of ideologies: Explaining party entry and exit in West-European parliaments, 1945–2013

PubMed Central

Berkhout, Joost; Vermeulen, Floris

2016-01-01

This study introduces a population-ecological approach to the entry and exit of political parties. A primary proposition of population ecology is that organizational entry and exit depends on the number of organizations already present: that is, density. We propose that political parties mainly experience competition from parties in the same ideological niche (left, centre, right). Pooled time-series analyses of 410 parties, 263 elections and 18 West-European countries largely support our expectations. We find that political parties are more likely to exit when density within their niche increases. Also there is competition between adjacent ideological niches, i.e. between centrist and right-wing niches. In contrast to our expectations, neither density nor institutional rules impact party entry. This raises important questions about the rationale of prospective entrants. PMID:29046613

Labor efficiency and intensity of land use in rice production: an example from Kalimantan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Padoch, C.

1986-09-01

The ''Boserup hypothesis'' contends that land-intensive systems of agriculture will be adopted only when high population density precludes the use of land-extensive methods. In the Kerayan District of East Kalimantan (Indonesia) the Lun Dayeh practice permanent-field rice cultivation despite very low human densities. An examination of the relative labor efficiencies of shifting and permanent-field agriculture in the Kerayan, as well as of local environmental and historical variables, explains why this ''anomalous'' situation exists. It is argued that since relative success in production of rice by shifting- and permanent-field irrigated methods depends on many natural and social conditions other than levelsmore » of population density, the ''environment-free'' Boserup hypothesis cannot adequately explain or predict the occurrence of particular forms of rice agriculture.« less

Homogenization techniques for population dynamics in strongly heterogeneous landscapes.

PubMed

Yurk, Brian P; Cobbold, Christina A

2018-12-01

An important problem in spatial ecology is to understand how population-scale patterns emerge from individual-level birth, death, and movement processes. These processes, which depend on local landscape characteristics, vary spatially and may exhibit sharp transitions through behavioural responses to habitat edges, leading to discontinuous population densities. Such systems can be modelled using reaction-diffusion equations with interface conditions that capture local behaviour at patch boundaries. In this work we develop a novel homogenization technique to approximate the large-scale dynamics of the system. We illustrate our approach, which also generalizes to multiple species, with an example of logistic growth within a periodic environment. We find that population persistence and the large-scale population carrying capacity is influenced by patch residence times that depend on patch preference, as well as movement rates in adjacent patches. The forms of the homogenized coefficients yield key theoretical insights into how large-scale dynamics arise from the small-scale features.

Prey-driven control of predator assemblages: zooplankton abundance drives aquatic beetle colonization.

PubMed

Pintar, Matthew R; Resetarits, William J

2017-08-01

Trophic interactions are critical determinants of community structure and ecosystem function. In freshwater habitats, top predators are traditionally viewed as drivers of ecosystem structure, shaping populations of consumers and primary producers. The temporary nature of small water bodies makes them dependent on colonization by many organisms, particularly insects that form highly diverse predator assemblages. We conducted mesocosm experiments with naturally colonizing populations of aquatic beetles to assess how prey (zooplankton) abundances influenced colonization and assemblages of natural populations of aquatic beetles. We experimentally demonstrate that zooplankton populations can be proximate regulators of predator populations and assemblages via prey-density-dependent predator recruitment. Our results provide support for the importance of prey populations in structuring predator populations and the role of habitat selection in structuring communities. We indicate that traditional views of predators as drivers of ecosystem structure in many systems may not provide a comprehensive picture, particularly in the context of highly disturbed or ephemeral habitats. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

From Experiment to Theory: What Can We Learn from Growth Curves?

PubMed

Kareva, Irina; Karev, Georgy

2018-01-01

Finding an appropriate functional form to describe population growth based on key properties of a described system allows making justified predictions about future population development. This information can be of vital importance in all areas of research, ranging from cell growth to global demography. Here, we use this connection between theory and observation to pose the following question: what can we infer about intrinsic properties of a population (i.e., degree of heterogeneity, or dependence on external resources) based on which growth function best fits its growth dynamics? We investigate several nonstandard classes of multi-phase growth curves that capture different stages of population growth; these models include hyperbolic-exponential, exponential-linear, exponential-linear-saturation growth patterns. The constructed models account explicitly for the process of natural selection within inhomogeneous populations. Based on the underlying hypotheses for each of the models, we identify whether the population that it best fits by a particular curve is more likely to be homogeneous or heterogeneous, grow in a density-dependent or frequency-dependent manner, and whether it depends on external resources during any or all stages of its development. We apply these predictions to cancer cell growth and demographic data obtained from the literature. Our theory, if confirmed, can provide an additional biomarker and a predictive tool to complement experimental research.

How electronic dynamics with Pauli exclusion produces Fermi-Dirac statistics.

PubMed

Nguyen, Triet S; Nanguneri, Ravindra; Parkhill, John

2015-04-07

It is important that any dynamics method approaches the correct population distribution at long times. In this paper, we derive a one-body reduced density matrix dynamics for electrons in energetic contact with a bath. We obtain a remarkable equation of motion which shows that in order to reach equilibrium properly, rates of electron transitions depend on the density matrix. Even though the bath drives the electrons towards a Boltzmann distribution, hole blocking factors in our equation of motion cause the electronic populations to relax to a Fermi-Dirac distribution. These factors are an old concept, but we show how they can be derived with a combination of time-dependent perturbation theory and the extended normal ordering of Mukherjee and Kutzelnigg for a general electronic state. The resulting non-equilibrium kinetic equations generalize the usual Redfield theory to many-electron systems, while ensuring that the orbital occupations remain between zero and one. In numerical applications of our equations, we show that relaxation rates of molecules are not constant because of the blocking effect. Other applications to model atomic chains are also presented which highlight the importance of treating both dephasing and relaxation. Finally, we show how the bath localizes the electron density matrix.

Examining indirect effects of lake trout recovery

EPA Science Inventory

With the recovery of lake trout populations in Lake Superior, there are indications of decreased forage fish abundance and density-dependence in lake trout. In Lake Superior, lean lake trout historically occupied depths < 60 m, and siscowet lake trout occupied depths > 60 m...

Effect of water temperature and population density on the population dynamics of Schistosoma mansoni intermediate host snails.

PubMed

McCreesh, Nicky; Arinaitwe, Moses; Arineitwe, Wilber; Tukahebwa, Edridah M; Booth, Mark

2014-11-12

Mathematical models can be used to identify areas at risk of increased or new schistosomiasis transmission as a result of climate change. The results of these models can be very different when parameterised to different species of host snail, which have varying temperature preferences. Currently, the experimental data needed by these models are available for only a few species of snail. The choice of density-dependent functions can also affect model results, but the effects of increasing densities on Biomphalaria populations have only previously been investigated in artificial aquariums. Laboratory experiments were conducted to estimate Biomphalaria sudanica mortality, fecundity and growth rates at ten different constant water temperatures, ranging from 13-32°C. Snail cages were used to determine the effects of snail densities on B. sudanica and B. stanleyi mortality and fecundity rates in semi-natural conditions in Lake Albert. B. sudanica survival and fecundity were highest at 20°C and 22°C respectively. Growth in shell diameter was estimated to be highest at 23°C in small and medium sized snails, but the relationship between temperature and growth was not clear. The fecundity of both B. sudanica and B. stanleyi decreased by 72-75% with a four-fold increase in population density. Increasing densities four-fold also doubled B. stanleyi mortality rates, but had no effect on the survival of B. sudanica. The optimum temperature for fecundity was lower for B. sudanica than for previously studied species of Biomphalaria. In contrast to other Biomphalaria species, B. sudanica have a distinct peak temperature for survival, as opposed to a plateau of highly suitable temperatures. For both B. stanleyi and B. sudanica, fecundity decreased with increasing population densities. This means that snail populations may experience large fluctuations in numbers, even in the absence of any external factors such as seasonal temperature changes. Survival also decreased with increasing density for B. stanleyi, in contrast to B. sudanica and other studied Biomphalaria species where only fecundity has been shown to decrease.

Modeling the impact of the indigenous microbial population on the maximum population density of Salmonella on alfalfa.

PubMed

Rijgersberg, Hajo; Franz, Eelco; Nierop Groot, Masja; Tromp, Seth-Oscar

2013-07-01

Within a microbial risk assessment framework, modeling the maximum population density (MPD) of a pathogenic microorganism is important but often not considered. This paper describes a model predicting the MPD of Salmonella on alfalfa as a function of the initial contamination level, the total count of the indigenous microbial population, the maximum pathogen growth rate and the maximum population density of the indigenous microbial population. The model is parameterized by experimental data describing growth of Salmonella on sprouting alfalfa seeds at inoculum size, native microbial load and Pseudomonas fluorescens 2-79. The obtained model fits well to the experimental data, with standard errors less than ten percent of the fitted average values. The results show that the MPD of Salmonella is not only dictated by performance characteristics of Salmonella but depends on the characteristics of the indigenous microbial population like total number of cells and its growth rate. The model can improve the predictions of microbiological growth in quantitative microbial risk assessments. Using this model, the effects of preventive measures to reduce pathogenic load and a concurrent effect on the background population can be better evaluated. If competing microorganisms are more sensitive to a particular decontamination method, a pathogenic microorganism may grow faster and reach a higher level. More knowledge regarding the effect of the indigenous microbial population (size, diversity, composition) of food products on pathogen dynamics is needed in order to make adequate predictions of pathogen dynamics on various food products.

Allee effects and the spatial dynamics of a locally endangered butterfly, the high brown fritillary (Argynnis adippe).

PubMed

Bonsall, Michael B; Dooley, Claire A; Kasparson, Anna; Brereton, Tom; Roy, David B; Thomas, Jeremy A

2014-01-01

Conservation of endangered species necessitates a full appreciation of the ecological processes affecting the regulation, limitation, and persistence of populations. These processes are influenced by birth, death, and dispersal events, and characterizing them requires careful accounting of both the deterministic and stochastic processes operating at both local and regional population levels. We combined ecological theory and observations on Allee effects by linking mathematical analysis and the spatial and temporal population dynamics patterns of a highly endangered butterfly, the high brown fritillary, Argynnis adippe. Our theoretical analysis showed that the role of density-dependent feedbacks in the presence of local immigration can influence the strength of Allee effects. Linking this theory to the analysis of the population data revealed strong evidence for both negative density dependence and Allee effects at the landscape or regional scale. These regional dynamics are predicted to be highly influenced by immigration. Using a Bayesian state-space approach, we characterized the local-scale births, deaths, and dispersal effects together with measurement and process uncertainty in the metapopulation. Some form of an Allee effect influenced almost three-quarters of these local populations. Our joint analysis of the deterministic and stochastic dynamics suggests that a conservation priority for this species would be to increase resource availability in currently occupied and, more importantly, in unoccupied sites.

Functional and numerical responses of shrews to competition vary with mouse density.

PubMed

Eckrich, Carolyn A; Flaherty, Elizabeth A; Ben-David, Merav

2018-01-01

For decades, ecologists have debated the importance of biotic interactions (e.g., competition) and abiotic factors in regulating populations. Competition can influence patterns of distribution, abundance, and resource use in many systems but remains difficult to measure. We quantified competition between two sympatric small mammals, Keen's mice (Peromyscus keeni) and dusky shrews (Sorex monticolus), in four habitat types on Prince of Wales Island in Southeast Alaska. We related shrew density to that of mice using standardized regression models while accounting for habitat variables in each year from 2010-2012, during which mice populations peaked (2011) and then crashed (2012). Additionally, we measured dietary overlap and segregation using stable isotope analysis and kernel utilization densities and estimated the change in whole community energy consumption among years. We observed an increase in densities of dusky shrews after mice populations crashed in 2012 as expected under competitive release. In addition, competition coefficients revealed that the influence of Keen's mice was dependent on their density. Also in 2012, shrew diets shifted, indicating that they were able to exploit resources previously used by mice. Nonetheless, increases in shrew numbers only partially compensated for the community energy consumption because, as insectivores, they are unlikely to utilize all food types consumed by their competitors. In pre-commercially thinned stands, which exhibit higher diversity of resources compared to other habitat types, shrew populations were less affected by changes in mice densities. These spatially and temporally variable interactions between unlikely competitors, observed in a relatively simple, high-latitude island ecosystem, highlight the difficulty in assessing the role of biotic factors in structuring communities.

The Role of Individual Traits and Environmental Factors for Diet Composition of Sheep

PubMed Central

Mysterud, Atle; Austrheim, Gunnar

2016-01-01

Large herbivore consumption of forage is known to affect vegetation composition and thereby ecosystem functions. It is thus important to understand how diet composition arises as a mixture of individual variation in preferences and environmental drivers of availability, but few studies have quantified both. Based on 10 years of data on diet composition by aid of microhistological analysis for sheep kept at high and low population density, we analysed how both individual traits (sex, age, body mass, litter size) linked to preference and environmental variation (density, climate proxies) linked to forage availability affected proportional intake of herbs (high quality/low availability) and Avenella flexuosa (lower quality/high availability). Environmental factors affecting current forage availability such as population density and seasonal and annual variation in diet had the most marked impact on diet composition. Previous environment of sheep (switch between high and low population density) had no impact on diet, suggesting a comparably minor role of learning for density dependent diet selection. For individual traits, only the difference between lambs and ewes affected proportion of A. flexuosa, while body mass better predicted proportion of herbs in diet. Neither sex, body mass, litter size, ewe age nor mass of ewe affected diet composition of lambs, and there was no effect of age, body mass or litter size on diet composition of ewes. Our study highlights that diet composition arises from a combination of preferences being predicted by lamb and ewes’ age and/or body mass differences, and the immediate environment in terms of population density and proxies for vegetation development. PMID:26731411

Contact-dependent growth inhibition induces high levels of antibiotic-tolerant persister cells in clonal bacterial populations.

PubMed

Ghosh, Anirban; Baltekin, Özden; Wäneskog, Marcus; Elkhalifa, Dina; Hammarlöf, Disa L; Elf, Johan; Koskiniemi, Sanna

2018-05-02

Bacterial populations can use bet-hedging strategies to cope with rapidly changing environments. One example is non-growing cells in clonal bacterial populations that are able to persist antibiotic treatment. Previous studies suggest that persisters arise in bacterial populations either stochastically through variation in levels of global signalling molecules between individual cells, or in response to various stresses. Here, we show that toxins used in contact-dependent growth inhibition (CDI) create persisters upon direct contact with cells lacking sufficient levels of CdiI immunity protein, which would otherwise bind to and neutralize toxin activity. CDI-mediated persisters form through a feedforward cycle where the toxic activity of the CdiA toxin increases cellular (p)ppGpp levels, which results in Lon-mediated degradation of the immunity protein and more free toxin. Thus, CDI systems mediate a population density-dependent bet-hedging strategy, where the fraction of non-growing cells is increased only when there are many cells of the same genotype. This may be one of the mechanisms of how CDI systems increase the fitness of their hosts. © 2018 The Authors.

Uncertainty, robustness, and the value of information in managing an expanding Arctic goose population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Fred A.; Jensen, Gitte H.; Madsen, Jesper; Williams, Byron K.

2014-01-01

We explored the application of dynamic-optimization methods to the problem of pink-footed goose (Anser brachyrhynchus) management in western Europe. We were especially concerned with the extent to which uncertainty in population dynamics influenced an optimal management strategy, the gain in management performance that could be expected if uncertainty could be eliminated or reduced, and whether an adaptive or robust management strategy might be most appropriate in the face of uncertainty. We combined three alternative survival models with three alternative reproductive models to form a set of nine annual-cycle models for pink-footed geese. These models represent a wide range of possibilities concerning the extent to which demographic rates are density dependent or independent, and the extent to which they are influenced by spring temperatures. We calculated state-dependent harvest strategies for these models using stochastic dynamic programming and an objective function that maximized sustainable harvest, subject to a constraint on desired population size. As expected, attaining the largest mean objective value (i.e., the relative measure of management performance) depended on the ability to match a model-dependent optimal strategy with its generating model of population dynamics. The nine models suggested widely varying objective values regardless of the harvest strategy, with the density-independent models generally producing higher objective values than models with density-dependent survival. In the face of uncertainty as to which of the nine models is most appropriate, the optimal strategy assuming that both survival and reproduction were a function of goose abundance and spring temperatures maximized the expected minimum objective value (i.e., maxi–min). In contrast, the optimal strategy assuming equal model weights minimized the expected maximum loss in objective value. The expected value of eliminating model uncertainty was an increase in objective value of only 3.0%. This value represents the difference between the best that could be expected if the most appropriate model were known and the best that could be expected in the face of model uncertainty. The value of eliminating uncertainty about the survival process was substantially higher than that associated with the reproductive process, which is consistent with evidence that variation in survival is more important than variation in reproduction in relatively long-lived avian species. Comparing the expected objective value if the most appropriate model were known with that of the maxi–min robust strategy, we found the value of eliminating uncertainty to be an expected increase of 6.2% in objective value. This result underscores the conservatism of the maxi–min rule and suggests that risk-neutral managers would prefer the optimal strategy that maximizes expected value, which is also the strategy that is expected to minimize the maximum loss (i.e., a strategy based on equal model weights). The low value of information calculated for pink-footed geese suggests that a robust strategy (i.e., one in which no learning is anticipated) could be as nearly effective as an adaptive one (i.e., a strategy in which the relative credibility of models is assessed through time). Of course, an alternative explanation for the low value of information is that the set of population models we considered was too narrow to represent key uncertainties in population dynamics. Yet we know that questions about the presence of density dependence must be central to the development of a sustainable harvest strategy. And while there are potentially many environmental covariates that could help explain variation in survival or reproduction, our admission of models in which vital rates are drawn randomly from reasonable distributions represents a worst-case scenario for management. We suspect that much of the value of the various harvest strategies we calculated is derived from the fact that they are state dependent, such that appropriate harvest rates depend on population abundance and weather conditions, as well as our focus on an infinite time horizon for sustainability.

Contribution potential of glaciers to water availability in different climate regimes

PubMed Central

Kaser, Georg; Großhauser, Martin; Marzeion, Ben

2010-01-01

Although reliable figures are often missing, considerable detrimental changes due to shrinking glaciers are universally expected for water availability in river systems under the influence of ongoing global climate change. We estimate the contribution potential of seasonally delayed glacier melt water to total water availability in large river systems. We find that the seasonally delayed glacier contribution is largest where rivers enter seasonally arid regions and negligible in the lowlands of river basins governed by monsoon climates. By comparing monthly glacier melt contributions with population densities in different altitude bands within each river basin, we demonstrate that strong human dependence on glacier melt is not collocated with highest population densities in most basins. PMID:21059938

Local thermodynamic equilibrium in rapidly heated high energy density plasmas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aslanyan, V.; Tallents, G. J.

Emission spectra and the dynamics of high energy density plasmas created by optical and Free Electron Lasers (FELs) depend on the populations of atomic levels. Calculations of plasma emission and ionization may be simplified by assuming Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (LTE), where populations are given by the Saha-Boltzmann equation. LTE can be achieved at high densities when collisional processes are much more significant than radiative processes, but may not be valid if plasma conditions change rapidly. A collisional-radiative model has been used to calculate the times taken by carbon and iron plasmas to reach LTE at varying densities and heating rates.more » The effect of different energy deposition methods, as well as Ionization Potential Depression are explored. This work shows regimes in rapidly changing plasmas, such as those created by optical lasers and FELs, where the use of LTE is justified, because timescales for plasma changes are significantly longer than the times needed to achieve an LTE ionization balance.« less

Dynamics of population densities and vegetation associations of Anopheles albimanus larvae in a coastal area of southern Chiapas, Mexico.

PubMed

Rodríguez, A D; Rodríguez, M H; Meza, R A; Hernández, J E; Rejmankova, E; Savage, H M; Roberts, D R; Pope, K O; Legters, L

1993-03-01

Spatial and seasonal variations on Anopheles albimanus larval densities and their plant associations were investigated in larval habitats in southern Mexico between April 1989 and May 1990. Thirty-four plant groups were dominant in larval habitats. Dense larval populations were associated with 3 genera of plants, Cynodon, Echinocloa and Fimbristylis and no larvae were found in habitats with Salvinia and Rhizophora. Low significant positive or negative associations were documented with the other 12 plant genera. Larval habitats were classified according to the morphology of their dominant plants. Higher larval densities were observed in the groups characterized by relatively short emergent vegetation. The distribution of habitat-types within 5 identified vegetation units showed a significantly dependent relationship. For the entire study period, highest larval densities were detected in flooded pasture/grassland vegetation units. For all vegetation units, higher larval densities were found when the dominant plant type covered between 25-50% of the breeding site. The integration of data from habitat-types into vegetation units did not result in loss of information.

The interacting effects of temperature and food chain length on trophic abundance and ecosystem function.

PubMed

Beveridge, Oliver S; Humphries, Stuart; Petchey, Owen L

2010-05-01

1. While much is known about the independent effects of trophic structure and temperature on density and ecosystem processes, less is known about the interaction(s) between the two. 2. We manipulated the temperature of laboratory-based bacteria-protist communities that contained communities with one, two, or three trophic levels, and recorded species' densities and bacterial decomposition. 3. Temperature, food chain length and their interaction produced significant responses in microbial density and bacterial decomposition. Prey and resource density expressed different patterns of temperature dependency during different phases of population dynamics. The addition of a predator altered the temperature-density relationship of prey, from a unimodal trend to a negative one. Bacterial decomposition was greatest in the presence of consumers at higher temperatures. 4. These results are qualitatively consistent with a recent model of direct and indirect temperature effects on resource-consumer population dynamics. Results highlight and reinforce the importance of indirect effects of temperature mediated through trophic interactions. Understanding and predicting the consequences of environmental change will require that indirect effects, trophic structure, and individual species' tolerances be incorporated into theory and models.

Intraspecific variation in stomatal traits, leaf traits and physiology reflects adaptation along aridity gradients in a South African shrub

PubMed Central

Carlson, Jane E.; Adams, Christopher A.; Holsinger, Kent E.

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Trait–environment relationships are commonly interpreted as evidence for local adaptation in plants. However, even when selection analyses support this interpretation, the mechanisms underlying differential benefits are often unknown. This study addresses this gap in knowledge using the broadly distributed South African shrub Protea repens. Specifically, the study examines whether broad-scale patterns of trait variation are consistent with spatial differences in selection and ecophysiology in the wild. Methods In a common garden study of plants sourced from 19 populations, associations were measured between five morphological traits and three axes describing source climates. Trait–trait and trait–environment associations were analysed in a multi-response model. Within two focal populations in the wild, selection and path analyses were used to test associations between traits, fecundity and physiological performance. Key Results Across 19 populations in a common garden, stomatal density increased with the source population’s mean annual temperature and decreased with its average amount of rainfall in midsummer. Concordantly, selection analysis in two natural populations revealed positive selection on stomatal density at the hotter, drier site, while failing to detect selection at the cooler, moister site. Dry-site plants with high stomatal density also had higher stomatal conductances, cooler leaf temperatures and higher light-saturated photosynthetic rates than those with low stomatal density, but no such relationships were present among wet-site plants. Leaf area, stomatal pore index and specific leaf area in the garden also co-varied with climate, but within-population differences were not associated with fitness in either wild population. Conclusions The parallel patterns of broad-scale variation, differences in selection and differences in trait–ecophysiology relationships suggest a mechanism for adaptive differentiation in stomatal density. Densely packed stomata may improve performance by increasing transpiration and cooling, but predominately in drier, hotter climates. This study uniquely shows context-dependent benefits of stomatal density – a trait rarely linked to local adaptation in plants. PMID:26424782

Consequences of the Allee effect and intraspecific competition on population persistence under adverse environmental conditions.

PubMed

Petrovskii, Sergei; Blackshaw, Rod; Li, Bai-Lian

2008-02-01

The impact of intraspecific interactions on ecological stability and population persistence in terms of steady state(s) existence is considered theoretically based on a general competition model. We compare persistence of a structured population consisting of a few interacting (competitive) subpopulations, or groups, to persistence of the corresponding unstructured population. For a general case, we show that if the intra-group competition is stronger than the inter-group competition, then the structured population is less prone to extinction, i.e. it can persist in a parameter range where the unstructured population goes extinct. For a more specific case of a population with hierarchical competition, we show that relative viability of structured and unstructured populations depend on the type of density dependence in the population growth. Namely, while in the case of logistic growth, structured and unstructured populations exhibit equivalent persistence; in the case of Allee dynamics, the persistence of a hierarchically structured population is shown to be higher. We then apply these results to the case of behaviourally structured populations and demonstrate that an extreme form of individual aggression can be beneficial at the population level and enhance population persistence.

Landscape attributes as drivers of the geographical variation in density of Sapajus nigritus Kerr, 1792, a primate endemic to the Atlantic Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendges, Carla D.; Melo, Geruza L.; Gonçalves, Alberto S.; Cerezer, Felipe O.; Cáceres, Nilton C.

2017-10-01

Neotropical primates are among the most well studied forest mammals concerning their population densities. However, few studies have evaluated the factors that influence the spatial variation in the population density of primates, which limits the possibility of inferences towards this animal group, especially at the landscape-level. Here, we compiled density data of Sapajus nigritus from 21 forest patches of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We tested the effects of climatic variables (temperature, precipitation), landscape attributes (number of patches, mean inter-patch isolation distance, matrix modification index) and patch size on the population density using linear models and the Akaike information criterion. Our findings showed that the density of S. nigritus is influenced by landscape attributes, particularly by fragmentation and matrix modification. Overall, moderately fragmented landscapes and those surrounded by matrices with intermediate indexes of temporal modification (i.e., crop plantations, forestry) are related to high densities of this species. These results support the assumptions that ecologically flexible species respond positively to forest fragmentation. However, the non-linear relationship between S. nigritus density and number of patches suggests that even the species that are most tolerant to forest cover changes seem to respond positively only at an intermediate level of habitat fragmentation, being dependent of both a moderate degree of forest cover and a high quality matrix. The results we found here can be a common response to fragmentation for those forest dweller species that are able to use the matrix as complementary foraging sites.

Feedback between Population and Evolutionary Dynamics Determines the Fate of Social Microbial Populations

PubMed Central

Sanchez, Alvaro; Gore, Jeff

2013-01-01

The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50–100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators “spiral” to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the demographic fate of those species that rely on cooperation for their survival. PMID:23637571

What Does a Submillimeter Galaxy Selection Actually Select? The Dependence of Submillimeter Flux Density on Star Formation Rate and Dust Mass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayward, Christopher C.; Kereš, Dušan; Jonsson, Patrik; Narayanan, Desika; Cox, T. J.; Hernquist, Lars

2011-12-01

We perform three-dimensional dust radiative transfer (RT) calculations on hydrodynamic simulations of isolated and merging disk galaxies in order to quantitatively study the dependence of observed-frame submillimeter (submm) flux density on galaxy properties. We find that submm flux density and star formation rate (SFR) are related in dramatically different ways for quiescently star-forming galaxies and starbursts. Because the stars formed in the merger-induced starburst do not dominate the bolometric luminosity and the rapid drop in dust mass and more compact geometry cause a sharp increase in dust temperature during the burst, starbursts are very inefficient at boosting submm flux density (e.g., a >~ 16 × boost in SFR yields a <~ 2 × boost in submm flux density). Moreover, the ratio of submm flux density to SFR differs significantly between the two modes; thus one cannot assume that the galaxies with highest submm flux density are necessarily those with the highest bolometric luminosity or SFR. These results have important consequences for the bright submillimeter-selected galaxy (SMG) population. Among them are: (1) The SMG population is heterogeneous. In addition to merger-driven starbursts, there is a subpopulation of galaxy pairs, where two disks undergoing a major merger but not yet strongly interacting are blended into one submm source because of the large (gsim 15" or ~130 kpc at z = 2) beam of single-dish submm telescopes. (2) SMGs must be very massive (M sstarf >~ 6 × 1010 M ⊙). (3) The infall phase makes the SMG duty cycle a factor of a few greater than what is expected for a merger-driven starburst. Finally, we provide fitting functions for SCUBA and AzTEC submm flux densities as a function of SFR and dust mass and bolometric luminosity and dust mass; these should be useful for calculating submm flux density in semi-analytic models and cosmological simulations when performing full RT is computationally not feasible.

Local control theory using trajectory surface hopping and linear-response time-dependent density functional theory.

PubMed

Curchod, Basile F E; Penfold, Thomas J; Rothlisberger, Ursula; Tavernelli, Ivano

2013-01-01

The implementation of local control theory using nonadiabatic molecular dynamics within the framework of linear-response time-dependent density functional theory is discussed. The method is applied to study the photoexcitation of lithium fluoride, for which we demonstrate that this approach can efficiently generate a pulse, on-the-fly, able to control the population transfer between two selected electronic states. Analysis of the computed control pulse yields insights into the photophysics of the process identifying the relevant frequencies associated to the curvature of the initial and final state potential energy curves and their energy differences. The limitations inherent to the use of the trajectory surface hopping approach are also discussed.

Size and DNA distributions of electrophoretically separated cultured human kidney cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kunze, M. E.; Plank, L. D.; Todd, P. W.

1985-01-01

Electrophoretic purification of purifying cultured cells according to function presumes that the size of cycle phase of a cell is not an overriding determinant of its electrophoretic velocity in an electrophoretic separator. The size distributions and DNA distributions of fractions of cells purified by density gradient electrophoresis were determined. No systematic dependence of electrophoretic migration upward in a density gradient column upon either size or DNA content were found. It was found that human leukemia cell populations, which are more uniform function and found in all phases of the cell cycle during exponential growth, separated on a vertical sensity gradient electrophoresis column according to their size, which is shown to be strictly cell cycle dependent.

Bivariate spline solution of time dependent nonlinear PDE for a population density over irregular domains.

PubMed

Gutierrez, Juan B; Lai, Ming-Jun; Slavov, George

2015-12-01

We study a time dependent partial differential equation (PDE) which arises from classic models in ecology involving logistic growth with Allee effect by introducing a discrete weak solution. Existence, uniqueness and stability of the discrete weak solutions are discussed. We use bivariate splines to approximate the discrete weak solution of the nonlinear PDE. A computational algorithm is designed to solve this PDE. A convergence analysis of the algorithm is presented. We present some simulations of population development over some irregular domains. Finally, we discuss applications in epidemiology and other ecological problems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Population estimates of the Endangered Hawaiʻi ʻĀkepa (Loxops coccineus) in different habitats on windward Mauna Loa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Judge, Seth W.; Camp, Richard J.; Hart, Patrick J.; Kichman, Scott T.

2018-01-01

Endangered Hawai‘i ʻĀkepas (Loxops coccineus) are endemic to Hawai‘i island, where they occur in five spatially distinct populations. Data concerning the status and population trends of these unique Hawaiian honeycreepers are crucial for assessing the effectiveness of recovery and management actions. In 2016, we used point‐transect distance sampling to estimate the abundance of Hawai‘i ʻĀkepas in portions of Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park (HAVO) and the Kaʻū Forest Reserve (KFR) on Mauna Loa volcano. We then compiled the survey data from four other populations to provide a global population estimate. In our HAVO and KFR study area, we mapped habitat classes to determine the population densities in each habitat. Densities were highest (1.03 birds/ha) in open‐canopy montane ʻōhiʻa (Metrosideros polymorpha) woodland. In contrast, densities of the largest ʻĀkepa population on Mauna Kea volcano were highest in closed‐canopy ʻōhiʻa and koa (Acacia koa) forest where the species is dependent on nest cavities in tall (> 15 m), large (> 50‐cm diameter at breast height) trees. We surveyed potential nesting habitat in HAVO and KFR and found only one cavity in the short‐stature montane ʻōhiʻa woodland and five cavities in the tall‐stature forest. Differences in densities between the Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa populations suggest that Hawai‘i ʻĀkepas may exhibit different foraging and nesting behaviors in the two habitats. The estimated overall population density in the HAVO and KFR study area was 0.52 birds/ha, which equates to 3663 (95% CI 1725–6961) birds in their 11,377‐ha population range. We calculated a global population of 16,428 (95% CI 10,065–25,198) birds, which is similar to an estimate of 13,892 (95% CI 10,315–17,469) birds made in 1986. Our results suggest that populations are stable to increasing in the two largest populations, but the three other populations are smaller (range = 77–1443 birds) and trends for those populations are unknown.

Scaling laws between population and facility densities.

PubMed

Um, Jaegon; Son, Seung-Woo; Lee, Sung-Ik; Jeong, Hawoong; Kim, Beom Jun

2009-08-25

When a new facility like a grocery store, a school, or a fire station is planned, its location should ideally be determined by the necessities of people who live nearby. Empirically, it has been found that there exists a positive correlation between facility and population densities. In the present work, we investigate the ideal relation between the population and the facility densities within the framework of an economic mechanism governing microdynamics. In previous studies based on the global optimization of facility positions in minimizing the overall travel distance between people and facilities, it was shown that the density of facility D and that of population rho should follow a simple power law D approximately rho(2/3). In our empirical analysis, on the other hand, the power-law exponent alpha in D approximately rho(alpha) is not a fixed value but spreads in a broad range depending on facility types. To explain this discrepancy in alpha, we propose a model based on economic mechanisms that mimic the competitive balance between the profit of the facilities and the social opportunity cost for populations. Through our simple, microscopically driven model, we show that commercial facilities driven by the profit of the facilities have alpha = 1, whereas public facilities driven by the social opportunity cost have alpha = 2/3. We simulate this model to find the optimal positions of facilities on a real U.S. map and show that the results are consistent with the empirical data.

Effects of sexual reproduction of the inferior competitor Brachionus calyciflorus on its fitness against Brachionus angularis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chen; Niu, Cuijuan

2015-03-01

Sexual reproduction adversely affects the population growth of cyclic parthenogenetic animals. The density-dependent sexual reproduction of a superior competitor could mediate the coexistence. However, the cost of sex may make the inferior competitor more vulnerable. To investigate the effect of sexual reproduction on the inferior competitor, we experimentally paired the competition of one Brachionus angularis clone against three Brachionus calyciflorus clones. One of the B. calyciflorus clones showed a low propensity for sexual reproduction, while the other two showed high propensities. The results show that all B. calyciflorus clones were excluded in the competition for resources at low food level. The increased food level promoted the competition persistence, but the clones did not show a clear pattern. Both the cumulative population density and resting egg production increased with the food level. The cumulative population density decreased with the mixis investment, while the resting egg production increased with the mixis investment. A trade-off between the population growth and sexual reproduction was observed in this research. The results indicate that although higher mixis investment resulted in a lower population density, it would not determinately accelerate the exclusion process of the inferior competitor. On the contrary, higher mixis investment promoted resting egg production before being excluded and thus promised a long-term benefit. In conclusion, our results suggest that mixis investment, to some extent, favored the excluded inferior competitor under fierce competition or some other adverse conditions.

Population dynamics, structure and behavior of Anopheles darlingi in a rural settlement in the Amazon rainforest of Acre, Brazil

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Anopheles darlingi is the major vector of malaria in South America, and its behavior and distribution has epidemiological importance to biomedical research. In Brazil, An. darlingi is found in the northern area of the Amazon basin, where 99.5% of the disease is reported. Methods The study area, known as Ramal do Granada, is a rural settlement inside the Amazon basin in the state of Acre. Population variations and density have been analysed by species behaviour, and molecular analysis has been measured by ND4 mitochondrial gene sequencing. Results The results show higher density in collections near a recent settlement, suggesting that a high level of colonization decreases the vector presence. The biting activity showed higher activity at twilight and major numbers of mosquitos in the remaining hours of the night in months of high density. From a sample of 110 individual mosquitoes, 18 different haplotypes were presented with a diversity index of 0.895, which is higher than that found in other Anopheles studies. Conclusions An. darlingi depends on forested regions for their larval and adult survival. In months with higher population density, the presence of mosquitoes persisted in the second part of the night, increasing the vector capacity of the species. Despite the intra-population variation in the transition to rainy season, the seasonal distribution of haplotypes shows no change in the structure population of An. darlingi. PMID:21702964

Modeling the population dynamics of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culcidae), along an elevational gradient in Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ahumada, Jorge A.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.

2004-01-01

We present a population model to understand the effects of temperature and rainfall on the population dynamics of the southern house mosquito, Culex quinquefasciatus Say, along an elevational gradient in Hawaii. We use a novel approach to model the effects of temperature on population growth by dynamically incorporating developmental rate into the transition matrix, by using physiological ages of immatures instead of chronological age or stages. We also model the effects of rainfall on survival of immatures as the cumulative number of days below a certain rain threshold. Finally, we incorporate density dependence into the model as competition between immatures within breeding sites. Our model predicts the upper altitudinal distributions of Cx. quinquefasciatus on the Big Island of Hawaii for self-sustaining mosquito and migrating summer sink populations at 1,475 and 1,715 m above sea level, respectively. Our model predicts that mosquitoes at lower elevations can grow under a broader range of rainfall parameters than middle and high elevation populations. Density dependence in conjunction with the seasonal forcing imposed by temperature and rain creates cycles in the dynamics of the population that peak in the summer and early fall. The model provides a reasonable fit to the available data on mosquito abundance for the east side of Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The predictions of our model indicate the importance of abiotic conditions on mosquito dynamics and have important implications for the management of diseases transmitted by Cx. quinquefasciatus in Hawaii and elsewhere.

Evidence for competition at sea between Norton Sound chum salmon and Asian hatchery chum salmon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruggerone, Gregory T.; Agler, B.A.; Nielsen, Jennifer L.

2012-01-01

Increasing production of hatchery salmon over the past four decades has led to concerns about possible density-dependent effects on wild Pacific salmon populations in the North Pacific Ocean. The concern arises because salmon from distant regions overlap in the ocean, and wild salmon populations having low productivity may compete for food with abundant hatchery populations. We tested the hypothesis that adult length-at-age, age-at-maturation, productivity, and abundance of a Norton Sound, Alaska, chum salmon population were influenced by Asian hatchery chum salmon, which have become exceptionally abundant and surpassed the abundance of wild chum salmon in the North Pacific beginning in the early 1980s. We found that smaller adult length-at-age, delayed age-at-maturation, and reduced productivity and abundance of the Norton Sound salmon population were associated with greater production of Asian hatchery chum salmon since 1965. Modeling of the density-dependent relationship, while controlling for other influential variables, indicated that an increase in adult hatchery chum salmon abundance from 10 million to 80 million adult fish led to a 72% reduction in the abundance of the wild chum salmon population. These findings indicate that competition with hatchery chum salmon contributed to the low productivity and abundance of Norton Sound chum salmon, which includes several stocks that are classified as Stocks of Concern by the State of Alaska. This study provides new evidence indicating that large-scale hatchery production may influence body size, age-at-maturation, productivity and abundance of a distant wild salmon population.

Spatial patterns and biodiversity in off-lattice simulations of a cyclic three-species Lotka-Volterra model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avelino, P. P.; Bazeia, D.; Losano, L.; Menezes, J.; de Oliveira, B. F.

2018-02-01

Stochastic simulations of cyclic three-species spatial predator-prey models are usually performed in square lattices with nearest-neighbour interactions starting from random initial conditions. In this letter we describe the results of off-lattice Lotka-Volterra stochastic simulations, showing that the emergence of spiral patterns does occur for sufficiently high values of the (conserved) total density of individuals. We also investigate the dynamics in our simulations, finding an empirical relation characterizing the dependence of the characteristic peak frequency and amplitude on the total density. Finally, we study the impact of the total density on the extinction probability, showing how a low population density may jeopardize biodiversity.

Assessing population exposure for landslide risk analysis using dasymetric cartography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Oliveira, Sergio C.; Zezere, Jose L.

2015-04-01

Exposed Population is a major topic that needs to be taken into account in a full landslide risk analysis. Usually, risk analysis is based on an accounting of inhabitants number or inhabitants density, applied over statistical or administrative terrain units, such as NUTS or parishes. However, this kind of approach may skew the obtained results underestimating the importance of population, mainly in territorial units with predominance of rural occupation. Furthermore, the landslide susceptibility scores calculated for each terrain unit are frequently more detailed and accurate than the location of the exposed population inside each territorial unit based on Census data. These drawbacks are not the ideal setting when landslide risk analysis is performed for urban management and emergency planning. Dasymetric cartography, which uses a parameter or set of parameters to restrict the spatial distribution of a particular phenomenon, is a methodology that may help to enhance the resolution of Census data and therefore to give a more realistic representation of the population distribution. Therefore, this work aims to map and to compare the population distribution based on a traditional approach (population per administrative terrain units) and based on dasymetric cartography (population by building). The study is developed in the Region North of Lisbon using 2011 population data and following three main steps: i) the landslide susceptibility assessment based on statistical models independently validated; ii) the evaluation of population distribution (absolute and density) for different administrative territorial units (Parishes and BGRI - the basic statistical unit in the Portuguese Census); and iii) the dasymetric population's cartography based on building areal weighting. Preliminary results show that in sparsely populated administrative units, population density differs more than two times depending on the application of the traditional approach or the dasymetric cartography. This work was supported by the FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology.

Metapopulation Structure and Dynamics of an Endangered Butterfly

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

the yearly variation of between-generation population change. We utilized weather data from the closest accessible NOAA weather station (43◦56′N/90◦49...patterns in the population dynamic, and tested for density-dependent growth and weather factors as potential explanatory factors of the yearly variation...followed a standard protocol including avoiding inclement weather con- ditions (Wilder 1999) and about 95% of the survey data were collected by a single

Growth anomalies on the coral genera Acropora and Porites are strongly associated with host density and human population size across the Indo-Pacific

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aeby, Greta S.; Williams, Gareth J.; Franklin, Erik C.; Haapkyla, Jessica; Harvell, C. Drew; Neale, Stephen; Page, Cathie A.; Raymundo, Laurie; Vargas-Angel, Bernardo; Willis, Bette L.; Work, Thierry M.; Davy, Simon K.

2011-01-01

Growth anomalies (GAs) are common, tumor-like diseases that can cause significant morbidity and decreased fecundity in the major Indo-Pacific reef-building coral genera, Acropora and Porites. GAs are unusually tractable for testing hypotheses about drivers of coral disease because of their pan-Pacific distributions, relatively high occurrence, and unambiguous ease of identification. We modeled multiple disease-environment associations that may underlie the prevalence of Acropora growth anomalies (AGA) (n = 304 surveys) and Porites growth anomalies (PGA) (n = 602 surveys) from across the Indo-Pacific. Nine predictor variables were modeled, including coral host abundance, human population size, and sea surface temperature and ultra-violet radiation anomalies. Prevalence of both AGAs and PGAs were strongly host density-dependent. PGAs additionally showed strong positive associations with human population size. Although this association has been widely posited, this is one of the first broad-scale studies unambiguously linking a coral disease with human population size. These results emphasize that individual coral diseases can show relatively distinct patterns of association with environmental predictors, even in similar diseases (growth anomalies) found on different host genera (Acropora vs. Porites). As human densities and environmental degradation increase globally, the prevalence of coral diseases like PGAs could increase accordingly, halted only perhaps by declines in host density below thresholds required for disease establishment.

Growth Anomalies on the Coral Genera Acropora and Porites Are Strongly Associated with Host Density and Human Population Size across the Indo-Pacific

PubMed Central

Franklin, Erik C.; Haapkyla, Jessica; Harvell, C. Drew; Neale, Stephen; Page, Cathie A.; Raymundo, Laurie; Vargas-Ángel, Bernardo; Willis, Bette L.; Work, Thierry M.; Davy, Simon K.

2011-01-01

Growth anomalies (GAs) are common, tumor-like diseases that can cause significant morbidity and decreased fecundity in the major Indo-Pacific reef-building coral genera, Acropora and Porites. GAs are unusually tractable for testing hypotheses about drivers of coral disease because of their pan-Pacific distributions, relatively high occurrence, and unambiguous ease of identification. We modeled multiple disease-environment associations that may underlie the prevalence of Acropora growth anomalies (AGA) (n = 304 surveys) and Porites growth anomalies (PGA) (n = 602 surveys) from across the Indo-Pacific. Nine predictor variables were modeled, including coral host abundance, human population size, and sea surface temperature and ultra-violet radiation anomalies. Prevalence of both AGAs and PGAs were strongly host density-dependent. PGAs additionally showed strong positive associations with human population size. Although this association has been widely posited, this is one of the first broad-scale studies unambiguously linking a coral disease with human population size. These results emphasize that individual coral diseases can show relatively distinct patterns of association with environmental predictors, even in similar diseases (growth anomalies) found on different host genera (Acropora vs. Porites). As human densities and environmental degradation increase globally, the prevalence of coral diseases like PGAs could increase accordingly, halted only perhaps by declines in host density below thresholds required for disease establishment. PMID:21365011

Accommodating environmental variation in population models: metaphysiological biomass loss accounting.

PubMed

Owen-Smith, Norman

2011-07-01

1. There is a pressing need for population models that can reliably predict responses to changing environmental conditions and diagnose the causes of variation in abundance in space as well as through time. In this 'how to' article, it is outlined how standard population models can be modified to accommodate environmental variation in a heuristically conducive way. This approach is based on metaphysiological modelling concepts linking populations within food web contexts and underlying behaviour governing resource selection. Using population biomass as the currency, population changes can be considered at fine temporal scales taking into account seasonal variation. Density feedbacks are generated through the seasonal depression of resources even in the absence of interference competition. 2. Examples described include (i) metaphysiological modifications of Lotka-Volterra equations for coupled consumer-resource dynamics, accommodating seasonal variation in resource quality as well as availability, resource-dependent mortality and additive predation, (ii) spatial variation in habitat suitability evident from the population abundance attained, taking into account resource heterogeneity and consumer choice using empirical data, (iii) accommodating population structure through the variable sensitivity of life-history stages to resource deficiencies, affecting susceptibility to oscillatory dynamics and (iv) expansion of density-dependent equations to accommodate various biomass losses reducing population growth rate below its potential, including reductions in reproductive outputs. Supporting computational code and parameter values are provided. 3. The essential features of metaphysiological population models include (i) the biomass currency enabling within-year dynamics to be represented appropriately, (ii) distinguishing various processes reducing population growth below its potential, (iii) structural consistency in the representation of interacting populations and (iv) capacity to accommodate environmental variation in space as well as through time. Biomass dynamics provide a common currency linking behavioural, population and food web ecology. 4. Metaphysiological biomass loss accounting provides a conceptual framework more conducive for projecting and interpreting the population consequences of climatic shifts and human transformations of habitats than standard modelling approaches. © 2011 The Author. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Homo- and heterofermentative lactobacilli differently affect sugarcane-based fuel ethanol fermentation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The antagonism between by yeast and lactobacilli is largely dependent on the initial population of each organism. While homo-fermentative lactobacillus present higher inhibitory effect upon yeast when in equal cell number, in industrial fuel ethanol conditions where high yeast cell densities prevail...

Concentration dependent differential activity of signalling molecules in Caenorhabditis elegans

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Caenorhabditis elegans employs specific glycosides of the dideoxysugar ascarylose (the ‘ascarosides’) for monitoring population density/ dauer formation and finding mates. A synergistic blend of three ascarosides, called ascr#2, ascr#3 and ascr#4 acts as a dauer pheromone at a high concentration na...

The impact of exospheric neutral dynamics on ring current decay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ilie, R.; Liemohn, M. W.; Skoug, R. M.; Funsten, H. O.; Gruntman, M.; Bailey, J. J.; Toth, G.

2015-12-01

The geocorona plays an important role in the energy budget of the Earth's inner magnetosphere since charge exchange of energetic ions with exospheric neutrals makes the exosphere act as an energy sink for ring current particles. Long-term ring current decay following a magnetic storm is mainly due to these electron transfer reactions, leading to the formation energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) that leave the ring current system on ballistic trajectories. The number of ENAs emitted from a given region of space depends on several factors, such as the energy and species of the energetic ion population in that region and the density of the neutral gas with which the ions undergo charge exchange. However, the density and structure of the exosphere are strongly dependent on changes in atmospheric temperature and density as well as charge exchange with the ions of plasmaspheric origin, which depletes the geocorona (by having a neutral removed from the system). Moreover, the radiation pressure exerted by solar far-ultraviolet photons pushes the geocoronal hydrogen away from the Earth in an anti-sunward direction to form a tail of neutral hydrogen. TWINS ENA images provide a direct measurement of these ENA losses and therefore insight into the dynamics of the ring current decay through interactions with the geocorona. We assess the influence of geocoronal neutrals on ring current formation and decay by analysis of the predicted ENA emissions using 6 different geocoronal models and simulations from the HEIDI ring current model during storm time. Comparison with TWINS ENA images shows that the location of the peak ENA enhancements is highly dependent on the distribution of geocoronal hydrogen density. We show that the neutral dynamics has a strong influence on the time evolution of the ring current populations as well as on the formation of energetic neutral atoms.

Colony Expansion of Socially Motile Myxococcus xanthus Cells Is Driven by Growth, Motility, and Exopolysaccharide Production

PubMed Central

Patra, Pintu; Kissoon, Kimberley; Cornejo, Isabel; Kaplan, Heidi B.; Igoshin, Oleg A.

2016-01-01

Myxococcus xanthus, a model organism for studies of multicellular behavior in bacteria, moves exclusively on solid surfaces using two distinct but coordinated motility mechanisms. One of these, social (S) motility is powered by the extension and retraction of type IV pili and requires the presence of exopolysaccharides (EPS) produced by neighboring cells. As a result, S motility requires close cell-to-cell proximity and isolated cells do not translocate. Previous studies measuring S motility by observing the colony expansion of cells deposited on agar have shown that the expansion rate increases with initial cell density, but the biophysical mechanisms involved remain largely unknown. To understand the dynamics of S motility-driven colony expansion, we developed a reaction-diffusion model describing the effects of cell density, EPS deposition and nutrient exposure on the expansion rate. Our results show that at steady state the population expands as a traveling wave with a speed determined by the interplay of cell motility and growth, a well-known characteristic of Fisher’s equation. The model explains the density-dependence of the colony expansion by demonstrating the presence of a lag phase–a transient period of very slow expansion with a duration dependent on the initial cell density. We propose that at a low initial density, more time is required for the cells to accumulate enough EPS to activate S-motility resulting in a longer lag period. Furthermore, our model makes the novel prediction that following the lag phase the population expands at a constant rate independent of the cell density. These predictions were confirmed by S motility experiments capturing long-term expansion dynamics. PMID:27362260

Life history traits influence the strength of distance- and density-dependence at different life stages of two Amazonian palms.

PubMed

Choo, Juanita; Carasco, Cecilia; Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia; Simpson, Beryl B; Economo, Evan P

2017-07-01

Natural enemies are known to be important in regulating plant populations and contributing to species coexistence (Janzen-Connell effects). The strength of Janzen-Connell effects (both distance- and density-effects) varies across species, but the life history traits that may mediate such a variation are not well understood. This study examined Janzen-Connell effects across the life stages (seed through adult stages) of two sympatric palm species with distinct phenologies and shade tolerances, two traits that may mediate the strength and timing of Janzen-Connell effects. Populations of two common palm species, Attalea phalerata and Astrocaryum murumuru , were studied in Manu National Park, Peru. Seed predation experiments were conducted to assess Janzen-Connell effects at the seed stage. In the post-seed stages, spatial point pattern analyses of the distributions of individuals and biomass were used to infer the strength of distance- and density-effects. Seed predation was both negative distance- and density-dependent consistent with the Janzen-Connell effects. However, only seedling recruitment for asynchronously fruiting Attalea phalerata was depressed near adults while recruitment remained high for synchronously fruiting Astrocaryum murumuru , consistent with weak distance-effects. Negative density-effects were strong in the early stages for shade-intolerant Attalea phalerata but weak or absent in shade-tolerant Astrocaryum murumuru. Distance- and density-effects varied among the life stages of the two palm species in a manner that corresponded to their contrasting phenology and shade tolerance. Generalizing such connections across many species would provide a route to understanding how trait-mediated Janzen-Connell effects scale up to whole communities of species. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Colony Expansion of Socially Motile Myxococcus xanthus Cells Is Driven by Growth, Motility, and Exopolysaccharide Production.

PubMed

Patra, Pintu; Kissoon, Kimberley; Cornejo, Isabel; Kaplan, Heidi B; Igoshin, Oleg A

2016-06-01

Myxococcus xanthus, a model organism for studies of multicellular behavior in bacteria, moves exclusively on solid surfaces using two distinct but coordinated motility mechanisms. One of these, social (S) motility is powered by the extension and retraction of type IV pili and requires the presence of exopolysaccharides (EPS) produced by neighboring cells. As a result, S motility requires close cell-to-cell proximity and isolated cells do not translocate. Previous studies measuring S motility by observing the colony expansion of cells deposited on agar have shown that the expansion rate increases with initial cell density, but the biophysical mechanisms involved remain largely unknown. To understand the dynamics of S motility-driven colony expansion, we developed a reaction-diffusion model describing the effects of cell density, EPS deposition and nutrient exposure on the expansion rate. Our results show that at steady state the population expands as a traveling wave with a speed determined by the interplay of cell motility and growth, a well-known characteristic of Fisher's equation. The model explains the density-dependence of the colony expansion by demonstrating the presence of a lag phase-a transient period of very slow expansion with a duration dependent on the initial cell density. We propose that at a low initial density, more time is required for the cells to accumulate enough EPS to activate S-motility resulting in a longer lag period. Furthermore, our model makes the novel prediction that following the lag phase the population expands at a constant rate independent of the cell density. These predictions were confirmed by S motility experiments capturing long-term expansion dynamics.

Influence of inoculum density on population dynamics and dauer juvenile yields in liquid culture of biocontrol nematodes Steinernema carpocapsae and S. feltiae (Nematoda: Rhabditida).

PubMed

Hirao, Ayako; Ehlers, Ralf-Udo

2010-01-01

For improvement of mass production of the rhabditid biocontrol nematodes Steinernema carpocapsae and Steinernema feltiae in monoxenic liquid culture with their bacterial symbionts Xenorhabdus nematophila and Xenorhabdus bovienii, respectively, the effect of the initial nematode inoculum density on population development and final concentration of dauer juveniles (DJs) was investigated. Symbiotic bacterial cultures are pre-incubated for 1 day prior to inoculation of DJs. DJs are developmentally arrested and recover development as a reaction to food signals provided by their symbionts. After development to adults, the nematodes produce DJ offspring. Inoculum density ranged from 1 to 10 x 10(3) DJ per milliliter for S. carpocapsae and 1 to 8 x 10(3) DJs per milliliter for S. feltiae. No significant influence of the inoculum density on the final DJ yields in both nematode species was recorded, except for S. carpocapsae cultures with a parental female density <2 x 10(3) DJs per milliliter, in which the yields increased with increasing inoculation density. A strong negative response of the parental female fecundity to increasing DJ inoculum densities was recorded for both species with a maximum offspring number per female of >300 for S. carpocapsae and almost 200 for S. feltiae. The compensative adaptation of fecundity to nematode population density is responsible for the lack of an inoculum (or parental female) density effect on DJ yields. At optimal inoculation density of S. carpocapsae, offspring were produced by the parental female population, whereas S. feltiae always developed a F1 female population, which contributed to the DJ yields and was the reason for a more scattered distribution of the yields. The F1 female generation was accompanied by a second peak in X. bovienii density. The optimal DJ inoculum density for S. carpocapsae is 3-6 x 10(3) DJs per milliliter in order to obtain >10(3) parental females per milliliter. Density-dependent effects were neither observed on the DJ recovery nor on the sex ratio in the parental adult generation. As recovery varied between different batches, assessment of the recovery of inoculum DJ batches is recommended. S. feltiae was less variable in DJ recovery usually reaching >90%. The recommended DJ inoculum density is >5 x 10(3) DJs per milliliter to reach >2 x 10(3) parental females per milliliter. The mean yield recorded for S. carpocapsae was 135 x 10(3) and 105 x 10(3) per mililiter for S. feltiae.

The southern megalopolis: using the past to predict the future of urban sprawl in the Southeast U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Terando, Adam; Costanza, Jennifer; Belyea, Curtis; Dunn, Robert R.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

2014-01-01

The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires.

Lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) suppression for bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) recovery in Flathead Lake, Montana, North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Michael J.; Hansen, Barry S; Beauchamp, David A.

2016-01-01

Non-native lake trout Salvelinus namaycush displaced native bull trout Salvelinus confluentus in Flathead Lake, Montana, USA, after 1984, when Mysis diluviana became abundant following its introduction in upstream lakes in 1968–1976. We developed a simulation model to determine the fishing mortality rate on lake trout that would enable bull trout recovery. Model simulations indicated that suppression of adult lake trout by 75% from current abundance would reduce predation on bull trout by 90%. Current removals of lake trout through incentivized fishing contests has not been sufficient to suppress lake trout abundance estimated by mark-recapture or indexed by stratified-random gill netting. In contrast, size structure, body condition, mortality, and maturity are changing consistent with a density-dependent reduction in lake trout abundance. Population modeling indicated total fishing effort would need to increase 3-fold to reduce adult lake trout population density by 75%. We conclude that increased fishing effort would suppress lake trout population density and predation on juvenile bull trout, and thereby enable higher abundance of adult bull trout in Flathead Lake and its tributaries.

The Southern Megalopolis: Using the Past to Predict the Future of Urban Sprawl in the Southeast U.S

PubMed Central

Terando, Adam J.; Costanza, Jennifer; Belyea, Curtis; Dunn, Robert R.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime A.

2014-01-01

The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires. PMID:25054329

Population Density and Moment-based Approaches to Modeling Domain Calcium-mediated Inactivation of L-type Calcium Channels.

PubMed

Wang, Xiao; Hardcastle, Kiah; Weinberg, Seth H; Smith, Gregory D

2016-03-01

We present a population density and moment-based description of the stochastic dynamics of domain [Formula: see text]-mediated inactivation of L-type [Formula: see text] channels. Our approach accounts for the effect of heterogeneity of local [Formula: see text] signals on whole cell [Formula: see text] currents; however, in contrast with prior work, e.g., Sherman et al. (Biophys J 58(4):985-995, 1990), we do not assume that [Formula: see text] domain formation and collapse are fast compared to channel gating. We demonstrate the population density and moment-based modeling approaches using a 12-state Markov chain model of an L-type [Formula: see text] channel introduced by Greenstein and Winslow (Biophys J 83(6):2918-2945, 2002). Simulated whole cell voltage clamp responses yield an inactivation function for the whole cell [Formula: see text] current that agrees with the traditional approach when domain dynamics are fast. We analyze the voltage-dependence of [Formula: see text] inactivation that may occur via slow heterogeneous domain [[Formula: see text

Changes in reproductive life-history strategies in response to nest density in a shell-brooding cichlid, Telmatochromis vittatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ota, Kazutaka; Hori, Michio; Kohda, Masanori

2012-01-01

To determine whether the appearance of a reproductively parasitic tactic varies, and how this variation affects territorial males of the Lake Tanganyika cichlid fish Telmatochromis vittatus, we examined the reproductive ecology of territorial males in Mtondwe and compared it with that of a neighboring Wonzye population, where nest density differs from that at Mtondwe. In Wonzye, with high nest density, male tactics change with their body size from a territorial to a non-territorial parasitic tactic called piracy in which they conquer several nests defended by territorial males and take over the nests while females are spawning. These "pirate" males could decrease the costs incurred by travelling among nests by exclusively targeting aggregations of nests in close proximity while avoiding separate nests. Territorial males in Wonzye sacrifice the potential higher attractiveness offered by large nests and instead compete for nests farther from neighbors on which pirates less frequently intrude. In contrast, the Mtondwe population had lower nest density and piracy was absent. Given that the success of piracy depends on the close proximity of nests, nest density is likely responsible for the observed variation in the occurrence of piracy between the two populations. Furthermore, in Mtondwe, territorial males competed for larger nests and were smaller than the territorial males in Wonzye. Thus, this lower nest density may free territorial males from the selection pressures for increased size caused by both defense against nest piracy and the need to develop into pirates as they grow.

Intraspecific variation in stomatal traits, leaf traits and physiology reflects adaptation along aridity gradients in a South African shrub.

PubMed

Carlson, Jane E; Adams, Christopher A; Holsinger, Kent E

2016-01-01

Trait-environment relationships are commonly interpreted as evidence for local adaptation in plants. However, even when selection analyses support this interpretation, the mechanisms underlying differential benefits are often unknown. This study addresses this gap in knowledge using the broadly distributed South African shrub Protea repens. Specifically, the study examines whether broad-scale patterns of trait variation are consistent with spatial differences in selection and ecophysiology in the wild. In a common garden study of plants sourced from 19 populations, associations were measured between five morphological traits and three axes describing source climates. Trait-trait and trait-environment associations were analysed in a multi-response model. Within two focal populations in the wild, selection and path analyses were used to test associations between traits, fecundity and physiological performance. Across 19 populations in a common garden, stomatal density increased with the source population's mean annual temperature and decreased with its average amount of rainfall in midsummer. Concordantly, selection analysis in two natural populations revealed positive selection on stomatal density at the hotter, drier site, while failing to detect selection at the cooler, moister site. Dry-site plants with high stomatal density also had higher stomatal conductances, cooler leaf temperatures and higher light-saturated photosynthetic rates than those with low stomatal density, but no such relationships were present among wet-site plants. Leaf area, stomatal pore index and specific leaf area in the garden also co-varied with climate, but within-population differences were not associated with fitness in either wild population. The parallel patterns of broad-scale variation, differences in selection and differences in trait-ecophysiology relationships suggest a mechanism for adaptive differentiation in stomatal density. Densely packed stomata may improve performance by increasing transpiration and cooling, but predominately in drier, hotter climates. This study uniquely shows context-dependent benefits of stomatal density--a trait rarely linked to local adaptation in plants. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Impact of wild prey availability on livestock predation by snow leopards.

PubMed

Suryawanshi, Kulbhushansingh R; Redpath, Stephen M; Bhatnagar, Yash Veer; Ramakrishnan, Uma; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Smout, Sophie C; Mishra, Charudutt

2017-06-01

An increasing proportion of the world's poor is rearing livestock today, and the global livestock population is growing. Livestock predation by large carnivores and their retaliatory killing is becoming an economic and conservation concern. A common recommendation for carnivore conservation and for reducing predation on livestock is to increase wild prey populations based on the assumption that the carnivores will consume this alternative food. Livestock predation, however, could either reduce or intensify with increases in wild prey depending on prey choice and trends in carnivore abundance. We show that the extent of livestock predation by the endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia intensifies with increases in the density of wild ungulate prey, and subsequently stabilizes. We found that snow leopard density, estimated at seven sites, was a positive linear function of the density of wild ungulates-the preferred prey-and showed no discernible relationship with livestock density. We also found that modelled livestock predation increased with livestock density. Our results suggest that snow leopard conservation would benefit from an increase in wild ungulates, but that would intensify the problem of livestock predation for pastoralists. The potential benefits of increased wild prey abundance in reducing livestock predation can be overwhelmed by a resultant increase in snow leopard populations. Snow leopard conservation efforts aimed at facilitating increases in wild prey must be accompanied by greater assistance for better livestock protection and offsetting the economic damage caused by carnivores.

Density thresholds for Mopeia virus invasion and persistence in its host Mastomys natalensis.

PubMed

Goyens, J; Reijniers, J; Borremans, B; Leirs, H

2013-01-21

Well-established theoretical models predict host density thresholds for invasion and persistence of parasites with a density-dependent transmission. Studying such thresholds in reality, however, is not obvious because it requires long-term data for several fluctuating populations of different size. We developed a spatially explicit and individual-based SEIR model of Mopeia virus in multimammate mice Mastomys natalensis. This is an interesting model system for studying abundance thresholds because the host is the most common African rodent, populations fluctuate considerably and the virus is closely related to Lassa virus but non-pathogenic to humans so can be studied safely in the field. The simulations show that, while host density clearly is important, sharp thresholds are only to be expected for persistence (and not for invasion), since at short time-spans (as during invasion), stochasticity is determining. Besides host density, also the spatial extent of the host population is important. We observe the repeated local occurrence of herd immunity, leading to a decrease in transmission of the virus, while even a limited amount of dispersal can have a strong influence in spreading and re-igniting the transmission. The model is most sensitive to the duration of the infectious stage, the size of the home range and the transmission coefficient, so these are important factors to determine experimentally in the future. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Top-down population regulation of a top predator: lions in the Ngorongoro Crater.

PubMed Central

Kissui, Bernard M.; Packer, Craig

2004-01-01

Efforts to determine whether bottom-up or top-down processes regulate populations have been hampered by difficulties in accurately estimating the population's carrying capacity and in directly measuring food intake rate, the impacts of interspecific competition and exposure to natural enemies. We report on 40 years of data on the lion population in Ngorongoro Crater, Tanzania, which showed strong evidence of density-dependent regulation at 100-120 individuals but has remained below 60 individuals for the past decade despite consistently high prey abundance. The lions enjoy a higher per capita food-intake rate and higher cub recruitment at low population density, and interspecific competition has not increased in recent years. These animals have suffered from a number of severe disease outbreaks over the past 40 years, but, whereas the population recovered exponentially from a severe epizootic in 1963, three outbreaks between 1994 and 2001 have occurred in such rapid succession that the population has been unable to return to the carrying capacity. The Crater population may have become unusually vulnerable to infectious disease in recent years owing to its close proximity to a growing human population and a history of close inbreeding. The Crater lions may therefore provide important insights into the future of many endangered populations. PMID:15315904

Border Disease Virus: An Exceptional Driver of Chamois Populations Among Other Threats.

PubMed

Serrano, Emmanuel; Colom-Cadena, Andreu; Gilot-Fromont, Emmanuelle; Garel, Mathieu; Cabezón, Oscar; Velarde, Roser; Fernández-Sirera, Laura; Fernández-Aguilar, Xavier; Rosell, Rosa; Lavín, Santiago; Marco, Ignasi

2015-01-01

Though it is accepted that emerging infectious diseases are a threat to planet biodiversity, little information exists about their role as drivers of species extinction. Populations are also affected by natural catastrophes and other pathogens, making it difficult to estimate the particular impact of emerging infectious diseases. Border disease virus genogroup 4 (BDV-4) caused a previously unreported decrease in populations of Pyrenean chamois (Rupicapra pyrenaica pyrenaica) in Spain. Using a population viability analysis, we compared probabilities of extinction of a virtual chamois population affected by winter conditions, density dependence, keratoconjunctivitis, sarcoptic mange, and BD outbreaks. BD-affected populations showed double risk of becoming extinct in 50 years, confirming the exceptional ability of this virus to drive chamois populations.

Effects of prey density, temperature and predator diversity on nonconsumptive predator-driven mortality in a freshwater food web.

PubMed

Veselý, Lukáš; Boukal, David S; Buřič, Miloš; Kozák, Pavel; Kouba, Antonín; Sentis, Arnaud

2017-12-22

Nonconsumptive predator-driven mortality (NCM), defined as prey mortality due to predation that does not result in prey consumption, is an underestimated component of predator-prey interactions with possible implications for population dynamics and ecosystem functioning. However, the biotic and abiotic factors influencing this mortality component remain largely unexplored, leaving a gap in our understanding of the impacts of environmental change on ecological communities. We investigated the effects of temperature, prey density, and predator diversity and density on NCM in an aquatic food web module composed of dragonfly larvae (Aeshna cyanea) and marbled crayfish (Procambarus fallax f. virginalis) preying on common carp (Cyprinus carpio) fry. We found that NCM increased with prey density and depended on the functional diversity and density of the predator community. Warming significantly reduced NCM only in the dragonfly larvae but the magnitude depended on dragonfly larvae density. Our results indicate that energy transfer across trophic levels is more efficient due to lower NCM in functionally diverse predator communities, at lower resource densities and at higher temperatures. This suggests that environmental changes such as climate warming and reduced resource availability could increase the efficiency of energy transfer in food webs only if functionally diverse predator communities are conserved.

Cultivar-dependent root colonization, antifungal metabolite accumulation and gene expression in the wheat-Pseudomonas interaction

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We explored the role of host genotype in three aspects of the wheat-Pseudomonas biocontrol interaction: rhizosphere population density, accumulation of rhizosphere 2,4-diacetylphloroglucinol (DAPG), and Pseudomonas-mediated changes in root gene expression. Wheat cultivars varied in ability to suppo...

Development and application of a density dependent matrix population model for Atlantic killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus)

EPA Science Inventory

Ranging along the Atlantic coast from US Florida to the Maritime Provinces of Canada, the Atlantic killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) is an important and well-studied model organism for understanding the effects of pollutants and other stressors in estuarine and marine ecosystems....

Nonlinear dynamics of trions under strong optical excitation in monolayer MoSe2.

PubMed

Ye, Jialiang; Yan, Tengfei; Niu, Binghui; Li, Ying; Zhang, Xinhui

2018-02-05

By employing ultrafast transient reflection measurements based on two-color pump-probe spectroscopy, the population and valley polarization dynamics of trions in monolayer MoSe 2 were investigated at relatively high excitation densities under near-resonant excitation. Both the nonlinear dynamic photobleaching of the trion resonance and the redshift of the exciton resonance were found to be responsible for the excitation-energy- and density-dependent transient reflection change as a result of many-body interactions. Furthermore, from the polarization-resolved measurements, it was revealed that the initial fast population and polarization decay process upon strong photoexcitation observed for trions was determined by trion formation, transient phase-space filling and the short valley lifetime of excitons. The results provide a basic understanding of the nonlinear dynamics of population and valley depolarization of trions, as well as exciton-trion correlation in atomically thin MoSe 2 and other transition metal dichalcogenide materials.

Pest persistence and eradication conditions in a deterministic model for sterile insect release.

PubMed

Gordillo, Luis F

2015-01-01

The release of sterile insects is an environment friendly pest control method used in integrated pest management programmes. Difference or differential equations based on Knipling's model often provide satisfactory qualitative descriptions of pest populations subject to sterile release at relatively high densities with large mating encounter rates, but fail otherwise. In this paper, I derive and explore numerically deterministic population models that include sterile release together with scarce mating encounters in the particular case of species with long lifespan and multiple matings. The differential equations account separately the effects of mating failure due to sterile male release and the frequency of mating encounters. When insects spatial spread is incorporated through diffusion terms, computations reveal the possibility of steady pest persistence in finite size patches. In the presence of density dependence regulation, it is observed that sterile release might contribute to induce sudden suppression of the pest population.

Collective effects and dynamics of non-adiabatic flame balls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Angelo, Yves; Joulin, Guy

2001-03-01

The dynamics of a homogeneous, polydisperse collection of non-adiabatic flame balls (FBs) is investigated by analytical/numerical means. A strongly temperature-dependent Arrhenius reaction rate is assumed, along with a light enough reactant characterized by a markedly less than unity Lewis number (Le). Combining activation-energy asymptotics with a mean-field type of treatment, the analysis yields a nonlinear integro-differential evolution equation (EE) for the FB population. The EE accounts for heat losses inside each FB and unsteadiness around it, as well as for its interactions with the entire FB population, namely mutual heating and faster (Le<1) consumption of the reactant pool. The initial FB number density and size distribution enter the EE explicitly. The latter is studied analytically at early times, then for small total FB number densities; it is subsequently solved numerically, yielding the whole population evolution and its lifetime. Generalizations and open questions relating to `spotty' turbulent combustion are finally evoked.

The determinants of county growth.

PubMed

Carlino, G A; Mills, E S

1987-02-01

The determinants of population and employment growth were explored from a broader interregional (as opposed to intraregional) perspective. Data for the 1970s, at the county level of disaggregation, were used to analyze the effects of economic, demographic, and climatic variables on population and employment growth in a simultaneous equation framework. The use of data from the more than 3000 US counties provides a considerably larger testing ground than those used in previous research. The point of departure was a conventional, general equilibrium model in which both households and producers are geographically mobile. The study's dependent variables refer to population, total, and manufacturing employment densities. Family income had a powerful effect in stimulating both population and employment density. A 10% increase in family income led to a 7.9% increase in total and a 9.2% increase in manufacturing employment densities. High family income must stand for high demand, and thus, firms are drawn to an area. High family income also drew households to an area. A 10% increase in family income led to a 5.5% increase in population density. High family income must represent "good" neighborhoods for households. High family income was positively correlated with population and employment density, but in other recent studies either a negative and significant relationship or an insignificant relationship were reported. Local taxes consist of the receipts of county government and those of municipalities, townships, school districts, and special districts within the county. The elasticities reported in Table 4 suggest that a 10% increase in such taxes resulted in about a 0.072% reduction in county population density during the decade. The Industrial Revenue Bonds (IRBs) and the percent of the labor force that is unionized are 2 potential policy instruments at the state level. The study results suggest that IRBs have not stimulated either manufacturing or total employment, and the coefficients were statistically insignificant in the structural equations. The elasticities imply that a 10% increase in percent union reduces total employment by 0.42% and manufacturing employment by 0.18%. The effect on population was tiny. Further, while not intended, the interstate highway program may have been a significant redistributor of population and employment but has not caused immigration of people and jobs from central cities.

Identification of environmental covariates of West Nile virus vector mosquito population abundance.

PubMed

Trawinski, Patricia R; Mackay, D Scott

2010-06-01

The rapid spread of West Nile virus (WNv) in North America is a major public health concern. Culex pipiens-restuans is the principle mosquito vector of WNv in the northeastern United States while Aedes vexans is an important bridge vector of the virus in this region. Vector mosquito abundance is directly dependent on physical environmental factors that provide mosquito habitats. The objective of this research is to determine landscape elements that explain the population abundance and distribution of WNv vector mosquitoes using stepwise linear regression. We developed a novel approach for examining a large set of landscape variables based on a land use and land cover classification by selecting variables in stages to minimize multicollinearity. We also investigated the distance at which landscape elements influence abundance of vector populations using buffer distances of 200, 400, and 1000 m. Results show landscape effects have a significant impact on Cx. pipiens-estuans population distribution while the effects of landscape features are less important for prediction of Ae. vexans population distributions. Cx. pipiens-restuans population abundance is positively correlated with human population density, housing unit density, and urban land use and land cover classes and negatively correlated with age of dwellings and amount of forested land.

Evaluating the "recovery level" of endangered species without prior information before alien invasion.

PubMed

Watari, Yuya; Nishijima, Shota; Fukasawa, Marina; Yamada, Fumio; Abe, Shintaro; Miyashita, Tadashi

2013-11-01

For maintaining social and financial support for eradication programs of invasive species, quantitative assessment of recovery of native species or ecosystems is important because it provides a measurable parameter of success. However, setting a concrete goal for recovery is often difficult owing to lack of information prior to the introduction of invaders. Here, we present a novel approach to evaluate the achievement level of invasive predator management based on the carrying capacity of endangered species estimated using long-term monitoring data. In Amami-Oshima Island, Japan, where the eradication project of introduced small Indian mongoose is ongoing since 2000, we surveyed the population densities of four endangered species threatened by the mongoose (Amami rabbit, the Otton frog, Amami tip-nosed frog, and Amami Ishikawa's frog) at four time points ranging from 2003 to 2011. We estimated the carrying capacities of these species using the logistic growth model combined with the effects of mongoose predation and environmental heterogeneity. All species showed clear tendencies toward increasing their density in line with decreased mongoose density, and they exhibited density-dependent population growth. The estimated carrying capacities of three endangered species had small confidence intervals enough to measure recovery levels by the mongoose management. The population density of each endangered species has recovered to the level of the carrying capacity at about 20-40% of all sites, whereas no individuals were observed at more than 25% of all sites. We propose that the present approach involving appropriate monitoring data of native organism populations will be widely applicable to various eradication projects and provide unambiguous goals for management of invasive species.

A Comparison of Grizzly Bear Demographic Parameters Estimated from Non-Spatial and Spatial Open Population Capture-Recapture Models.

PubMed

Whittington, Jesse; Sawaya, Michael A

2015-01-01

Capture-recapture studies are frequently used to monitor the status and trends of wildlife populations. Detection histories from individual animals are used to estimate probability of detection and abundance or density. The accuracy of abundance and density estimates depends on the ability to model factors affecting detection probability. Non-spatial capture-recapture models have recently evolved into spatial capture-recapture models that directly include the effect of distances between an animal's home range centre and trap locations on detection probability. Most studies comparing non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture biases focussed on single year models and no studies have compared the accuracy of demographic parameter estimates from open population models. We applied open population non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture models to three years of grizzly bear DNA-based data from Banff National Park and simulated data sets. The two models produced similar estimates of grizzly bear apparent survival, per capita recruitment, and population growth rates but the spatial capture-recapture models had better fit. Simulations showed that spatial capture-recapture models produced more accurate parameter estimates with better credible interval coverage than non-spatial capture-recapture models. Non-spatial capture-recapture models produced negatively biased estimates of apparent survival and positively biased estimates of per capita recruitment. The spatial capture-recapture grizzly bear population growth rates and 95% highest posterior density averaged across the three years were 0.925 (0.786-1.071) for females, 0.844 (0.703-0.975) for males, and 0.882 (0.779-0.981) for females and males combined. The non-spatial capture-recapture population growth rates were 0.894 (0.758-1.024) for females, 0.825 (0.700-0.948) for males, and 0.863 (0.771-0.957) for both sexes. The combination of low densities, low reproductive rates, and predominantly negative population growth rates suggest that Banff National Park's population of grizzly bears requires continued conservation-oriented management actions.

Negative frequency-dependent selection or alternative reproductive tactics: maintenance of female polymorphism in natural populations

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Sex-limited polymorphisms have long intrigued evolutionary biologists and have been the subject of long-standing debates. The coexistence of multiple male and/or female morphs is widely believed to be maintained through negative frequency-dependent selection imposed by social interactions. However, remarkably few empirical studies have evaluated how social interactions, morph frequencies and fitness parameters relate to one another under natural conditions. Here, we test two hypotheses proposed to explain the maintenance of a female polymorphism in a species with extreme geographical variation in morph frequencies. We first elucidate how fecundity traits of the morphs vary in relation to the frequencies and densities of males and female morphs in multiple sites over multiple years. Second, we evaluate whether the two female morphs differ in resource allocation among fecundity traits, indicating alternative tactics to maximize reproductive output. Results We present some of the first empirical evidence collected under natural conditions that egg number and clutch mass was higher in the rarer female morph. This morph-specific fecundity advantage gradually switched with the population morph frequency. Our results further indicate that all investigated fecundity traits are negatively affected by relative male density (i.e. operational sex ratio), which confirms male harassment as selective agent. Finally, we show a clear trade-off between qualitative (egg mass) and quantitative (egg number) fecundity traits. This trade-off, however, is not morph-specific. Conclusion Our reported frequency- and density-dependent fecundity patterns are consistent with the hypothesis that the polymorphism is driven by a conflict between sexes over optimal mating rate, with costly male sexual harassment driving negative frequency-dependent selection on morph fecundity. PMID:23822745

Functional response of wolves preying on barren-ground caribou in a multiple-prey ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dale, B.W.; Adams, Layne G.; Bowyer, R.T.

1994-01-01

1. We investigated the functional response of wolves (Canis lupus) to varying abundance of ungulate prey to test the hypothesis that switching from alternate prey to preferred prey results in regulation of a caribou (Rangifer tarandus) population at low densities. 2. We determined prey selection, kill rates, and prey abundance for four wolf packs during three 30-day periods in March 1989, March 1990, November 1990, and created a simple discrete model to evaluate the potential for the expected numerical and observed functional responses of wolves to regulate caribou populations. 3. We observed a quickly decelerating type II functional response that, in the absence of numerical response, implicates an anti-regulatory effect of wolf predation on barren-ground caribou dynamics. 4. There was little potential for regulation caused by the multiplicative effect of increasing functional and numerical responses because of presence of alternative prey. This resulted in high wolf:caribou ratios at low prey densities which precluded the effects of an increasing functional response. 5. Inversely density-dependent predation by other predators, such as bears, reduces the potential for predators to regulate caribou populations at low densities, and small reductions in predation by one predator may have disproportionately large effects on the total predation rate.

Implications of Fine-Grained Habitat Fragmentation and Road Mortality for Jaguar Conservation in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil.

PubMed

Cullen, Laury; Stanton, Jessica C; Lima, Fernando; Uezu, Alexandre; Perilli, Miriam L L; Akçakaya, H Reşit

2016-01-01

Jaguar (Panthera onca) populations in the Upper Paraná River, in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest region, live in a landscape that includes highly fragmented areas as well as relatively intact ones. We developed a model of jaguar habitat suitability in this region, and based on this habitat model, we developed a spatially structured metapopulation model of the jaguar populations in this area to analyze their viability, the potential impact of road mortality on the populations' persistence, and the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation. In more highly fragmented populations, density of jaguars per unit area is lower and density of roads per jaguar is higher. The populations with the most fragmented habitat were predicted to have much lower persistence in the next 100 years when the model included no dispersal, indicating that the persistence of these populations are dependent to a large extent on dispersal from other populations. This, in turn, indicates that the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation may lead to source-sink dynamics, whereby populations with highly fragmented habitat are maintained only by dispersal from populations with less fragmented habitat. This study demonstrates the utility of linking habitat and demographic models in assessing impacts on species living in fragmented landscapes.

Implications of Fine-Grained Habitat Fragmentation and Road Mortality for Jaguar Conservation in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil

PubMed Central

Cullen, Laury; Stanton, Jessica C.; Lima, Fernando; Uezu, Alexandre; Perilli, Miriam L. L.; Akçakaya, H. Reşit

2016-01-01

Jaguar (Panthera onca) populations in the Upper Paraná River, in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest region, live in a landscape that includes highly fragmented areas as well as relatively intact ones. We developed a model of jaguar habitat suitability in this region, and based on this habitat model, we developed a spatially structured metapopulation model of the jaguar populations in this area to analyze their viability, the potential impact of road mortality on the populations' persistence, and the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation. In more highly fragmented populations, density of jaguars per unit area is lower and density of roads per jaguar is higher. The populations with the most fragmented habitat were predicted to have much lower persistence in the next 100 years when the model included no dispersal, indicating that the persistence of these populations are dependent to a large extent on dispersal from other populations. This, in turn, indicates that the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation may lead to source-sink dynamics, whereby populations with highly fragmented habitat are maintained only by dispersal from populations with less fragmented habitat. This study demonstrates the utility of linking habitat and demographic models in assessing impacts on species living in fragmented landscapes. PMID:27973584

Demography of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens): 1974-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taylor, Rebecca L.; Udevitz, Mark S.

2015-01-01

Global climate change may fundamentally alter population dynamics of many species for which baseline population parameter estimates are imprecise or lacking. Historically, the Pacific walrus is thought to have been limited by harvest, but it may become limited by global warming-induced reductions in sea ice. Loss of sea ice, on which walruses rest between foraging bouts, may reduce access to food, thus lowering vital rates. Rigorous walrus survival rate estimates do not exist, and other population parameter estimates are out of date or have well-documented bias and imprecision. To provide useful population parameter estimates we developed a Bayesian, hidden process demographic model of walrus population dynamics from 1974 through 2006 that combined annual age-specific harvest estimates with five population size estimates, six standing age structure estimates, and two reproductive rate estimates. Median density independent natural survival was high for juveniles (0.97) and adults (0.99), and annual density dependent vital rates rose from 0.06 to 0.11 for reproduction, 0.31 to 0.59 for survival of neonatal calves, and 0.39 to 0.85 for survival of older calves, concomitant with a population decline. This integrated population model provides a baseline for estimating changing population dynamics resulting from changing harvests or sea ice.

Galactic civilizations: Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, W. I.; Sagan, C.

1978-01-01

The interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations is reexamined by potential theory; both numerical and analytical solutions are derived for the nonlinear partial differential equations which specify a range of relevant models, drawn from blast wave physics, soil science, and, especially, population biology. An essential feature of these models is that, for all civilizations, population growth must be limited by the carrying capacity of the environment. Dispersal is fundamentally a diffusion process; a density-dependent diffusivity describes interstellar emigration. Two models are considered: the first describing zero population growth (ZPG), and the second which also includes local growth and saturation of a planetary population, and for which an asymptotic traveling wave solution is found.

Emergence of macroscopic directed motion in populations of motile colloids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bricard, Antoine; Caussin, Jean-Baptiste; Desreumaux, Nicolas; Dauchot, Olivier; Bartolo, Denis

2013-11-01

From the formation of animal flocks to the emergence of coordinated motion in bacterial swarms, populations of motile organisms at all scales display coherent collective motion. This consistent behaviour strongly contrasts with the difference in communication abilities between the individuals. On the basis of this universal feature, it has been proposed that alignment rules at the individual level could solely account for the emergence of unidirectional motion at the group level. This hypothesis has been supported by agent-based simulations. However, more complex collective behaviours have been systematically found in experiments, including the formation of vortices, fluctuating swarms, clustering and swirling. All these (living and man-made) model systems (bacteria, biofilaments and molecular motors, shaken grains and reactive colloids) predominantly rely on actual collisions to generate collective motion. As a result, the potential local alignment rules are entangled with more complex, and often unknown, interactions. The large-scale behaviour of the populations therefore strongly depends on these uncontrolled microscopic couplings, which are extremely challenging to measure and describe theoretically. Here we report that dilute populations of millions of colloidal rolling particles self-organize to achieve coherent motion in a unique direction, with very few density and velocity fluctuations. Quantitatively identifying the microscopic interactions between the rollers allows a theoretical description of this polar-liquid state. Comparison of the theory with experiment suggests that hydrodynamic interactions promote the emergence of collective motion either in the form of a single macroscopic `flock', at low densities, or in that of a homogenous polar phase, at higher densities. Furthermore, hydrodynamics protects the polar-liquid state from the giant density fluctuations that were hitherto considered the hallmark of populations of self-propelled particles. Our experiments demonstrate that genuine physical interactions at the individual level are sufficient to set homogeneous active populations into stable directed motion.

Interactions of galaxies outside clusters and massive groups

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadav, Jaswant K.; Chen, Xuelei

2018-06-01

We investigate the dependence of physical properties of galaxies on small- and large-scale density environment. The galaxy population consists of mainly passively evolving galaxies in comparatively low-density regions of Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). We adopt (i) local density, ρ _{20}, derived using adaptive smoothing kernel, (ii) projected distance, r_p, to the nearest neighbor galaxy and (iii) the morphology of the nearest neighbor galaxy as various definitions of environment parameters of every galaxy in our sample. In order to detect long-range interaction effects, we group galaxy interactions into four cases depending on morphology of the target and neighbor galaxies. This study builds upon an earlier study by Park and Choi (2009) by including improved definitions of target and neighbor galaxies, thus enabling us to better understand the effect of "the nearest neighbor" interaction on the galaxy. We report that the impact of interaction on galaxy properties is detectable at least up to the pair separation corresponding to the virial radius of (the neighbor) galaxies. This turns out to be mostly between 210 and 360 h^{-1}kpc for galaxies included in our study. We report that early type fraction for isolated galaxies with r_p > r_{vir,nei} is almost ignorant of the background density and has a very weak density dependence for closed pairs. Star formation activity of a galaxy is found to be crucially dependent on neighbor galaxy morphology. We find star formation activity parameters and structure parameters of galaxies to be independent of the large-scale background density. We also exhibit that changing the absolute magnitude of the neighbor galaxies does not affect significantly the star formation activity of those target galaxies whose morphology and luminosities are fixed.

The trans-generational impact of population density signals on host-parasite interactions.

PubMed

Michel, Jessica; Ebert, Dieter; Hall, Matthew D

2016-11-25

The density of a host population is a key parameter underlying disease transmission, but it also has implications for the expression of disease through its effect on host physiology. In response to higher densities, individuals are predicted to either increase their immune investment in response to the elevated risk of parasitism, or conversely to decrease their immune capacity as a consequence of the stress of a crowded environment. However, an individual's health is shaped by many different factors, including their genetic background, current environmental conditions, and maternal effects. Indeed, population density is often sensed through the presence of info-chemicals in the environment, which may influence a host's interaction with parasites, and also those of its offspring. All of which may alter the expression of disease, and potentially uncouple the presumed link between changes in host density and disease outcomes. In this study, we used the water flea Daphnia magna and its obligate bacterial parasite Pasteuria ramosa, to investigate how signals of high host density impact on host-parasite interactions over two consecutive generations. We found that the chemical signals from crowded treatments induced phenotypic changes in both the parental and offspring generations. In the absence of a pathogen, life-history changes were genotype-specific, but consistent across generations, even when the signal of density was removed. In contrast, the influence of density on infected animals depended on the trait and generation of exposure. When directly exposed to signals of high-density, host genotypes responded differently in how they minimised the severity of disease. Yet, in the subsequent generation, the influence of density was rarely genotype-specific and instead related to ability of the host to minimise the onset of infection. Our findings reveal that population level correlations between host density and infection capture only part of the complex relationship between crowding and the severity of disease. We suggest that besides its role in horizontal transmission, signals of density can influence parasite epidemiology by modifying mechanisms of resistance across multiple generations, and elevating variability via genotype-by-environment interactions. Our results help resolve why some studies are able to find a positive correlation between high density and resistance, while others uncover a negative correlation, or even no direct relationship at all.