Bayesian Inference on the Effect of Density Dependence and Weather on a Guanaco Population from Chile

PubMed Central

Zubillaga, María; Skewes, Oscar; Soto, Nicolás; Rabinovich, Jorge E.; Colchero, Fernando

2014-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms that drive population dynamics is fundamental for management of wild populations. The guanaco (Lama guanicoe) is one of two wild camelid species in South America. We evaluated the effects of density dependence and weather variables on population regulation based on a time series of 36 years of population sampling of guanacos in Tierra del Fuego, Chile. The population density varied between 2.7 and 30.7 guanaco/km2, with an apparent monotonic growth during the first 25 years; however, in the last 10 years the population has shown large fluctuations, suggesting that it might have reached its carrying capacity. We used a Bayesian state-space framework and model selection to determine the effect of density and environmental variables on guanaco population dynamics. Our results show that the population is under density dependent regulation and that it is currently fluctuating around an average carrying capacity of 45,000 guanacos. We also found a significant positive effect of previous winter temperature while sheep density has a strong negative effect on the guanaco population growth. We conclude that there are significant density dependent processes and that climate as well as competition with domestic species have important effects determining the population size of guanacos, with important implications for management and conservation. PMID:25514510

Bayesian inference on the effect of density dependence and weather on a guanaco population from Chile.

PubMed

Zubillaga, María; Skewes, Oscar; Soto, Nicolás; Rabinovich, Jorge E; Colchero, Fernando

2014-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms that drive population dynamics is fundamental for management of wild populations. The guanaco (Lama guanicoe) is one of two wild camelid species in South America. We evaluated the effects of density dependence and weather variables on population regulation based on a time series of 36 years of population sampling of guanacos in Tierra del Fuego, Chile. The population density varied between 2.7 and 30.7 guanaco/km2, with an apparent monotonic growth during the first 25 years; however, in the last 10 years the population has shown large fluctuations, suggesting that it might have reached its carrying capacity. We used a Bayesian state-space framework and model selection to determine the effect of density and environmental variables on guanaco population dynamics. Our results show that the population is under density dependent regulation and that it is currently fluctuating around an average carrying capacity of 45,000 guanacos. We also found a significant positive effect of previous winter temperature while sheep density has a strong negative effect on the guanaco population growth. We conclude that there are significant density dependent processes and that climate as well as competition with domestic species have important effects determining the population size of guanacos, with important implications for management and conservation.

Stochastic seasonality and nonlinear density-dependent factors regulate population size in an African rodent

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leirs, H.; Stenseth, N.C.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Verhagen, R.; Verheyen, W.

1997-01-01

Ecology has long been troubled by the controversy over how populations are regulated. Some ecologists focus on the role of environmental effects, whereas others argue that density-dependent feedback mechanisms are central. The relative importance of both processes is still hotly debated, but clear examples of both processes acting in the same population are rare. Keyfactor analysis (regression of population changes on possible causal factors) and time-series analysis are often used to investigate the presence of density dependence, but such approaches may be biased and provide no information on actual demographic rates. Here we report on both density-dependent and density-independent effects in a murid rodent pest species, the multimammate rat Mastomys natalensis (Smith, 1834), using statistical capture-recapture models. Both effects occur simultaneously, but we also demonstrate that they do not affect all demographic rates in the same way. We have incorporated the obtained estimates of demographic rates in a population dynamics model and show that the observed dynamics are affected by stabilizing nonlinear density-dependent components coupled with strong deterministic and stochastic seasonal components.

Demographic models reveal the shape of density dependence for a specialist insect herbivore on variable host plants.

PubMed

Miller, Tom E X

2007-07-01

1. It is widely accepted that density-dependent processes play an important role in most natural populations. However, persistent challenges in our understanding of density-dependent population dynamics include evaluating the shape of the relationship between density and demographic rates (linear, concave, convex), and identifying extrinsic factors that can mediate this relationship. 2. I studied the population dynamics of the cactus bug Narnia pallidicornis on host plants (Opuntia imbricata) that varied naturally in relative reproductive effort (RRE, the proportion of meristems allocated to reproduction), an important plant quality trait. I manipulated per-plant cactus bug densities, quantified subsequent dynamics, and fit stage-structured models to the experimental data to ask if and how density influences demographic parameters. 3. In the field experiment, I found that populations with variable starting densities quickly converged upon similar growth trajectories. In the model-fitting analyses, the data strongly supported a model that defined the juvenile cactus bug retention parameter (joint probability of surviving and not dispersing) as a nonlinear decreasing function of density. The estimated shape of this relationship shifted from concave to convex with increasing host-plant RRE. 4. The results demonstrate that host-plant traits are critical sources of variation in the strength and shape of density dependence in insects, and highlight the utility of integrated experimental-theoretical approaches for identifying processes underlying patterns of change in natural populations.

The density dilemma: limitations on juvenile production in threatened salmon populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walters, Annika W.; Copeland, Timothy; Venditti, David A.

2013-01-01

Density-dependent processes have repeatedly been shown to have a central role in salmonid population dynamics, but are often assumed to be negligible for populations at low abundances relative to historical records. Density dependence has been observed in overall spring/summer Snake River Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha production, but it is not clear how patterns observed at the aggregate level relate to individual populations within the basin. We used a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach to explore the degree of density dependence in juvenile production for nine Idaho populations. Our results indicate that density dependence is ubiquitous, although its strength varies between populations. We also investigated the processes driving the population-level pattern and found density-dependent growth and mortality present for both common life-history strategies, but no evidence of density-dependent movement. Overwinter mortality, spatial clustering of redds and limited resource availability were identified as potentially important limiting factors contributing to density dependence. The ubiquity of density dependence for these threatened populations is alarming as stability at present low abundance levels suggests recovery may be difficult without major changes. We conclude that density dependence at the population level is common and must be considered in demographic analysis and management.

Dynamical role of predators in population cycles of a forest insect: an experimental test.

Treesearch

P. Turchin; A.D. Taylor; J.D. Reeve

1999-01-01

Population cycles occur frequently in forest insects.Time-series analysis of fluctuations in one such insect, the southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis), suggests that beetle dynamics are dominated by an ecological process acting in a delayed density-dependent manner.The hypothesis that delayed density-dependence in this insect results from its interaction with...

Density dependence in demography and dispersal generates fluctuating invasion speeds

PubMed Central

Li, Bingtuan; Miller, Tom E. X.

2017-01-01

Density dependence plays an important role in population regulation and is known to generate temporal fluctuations in population density. However, the ways in which density dependence affects spatial population processes, such as species invasions, are less understood. Although classical ecological theory suggests that invasions should advance at a constant speed, empirical work is illuminating the highly variable nature of biological invasions, which often exhibit nonconstant spreading speeds, even in simple, controlled settings. Here, we explore endogenous density dependence as a mechanism for inducing variability in biological invasions with a set of population models that incorporate density dependence in demographic and dispersal parameters. We show that density dependence in demography at low population densities—i.e., an Allee effect—combined with spatiotemporal variability in population density behind the invasion front can produce fluctuations in spreading speed. The density fluctuations behind the front can arise from either overcompensatory population growth or density-dependent dispersal, both of which are common in nature. Our results show that simple rules can generate complex spread dynamics and highlight a source of variability in biological invasions that may aid in ecological forecasting. PMID:28442569

Experimental test of an eco-evolutionary dynamic feedback loop between evolution and population density in the green peach aphid.

PubMed

Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Daniel Hare, J

2013-05-01

An eco-evolutionary feedback loop is defined as the reciprocal impacts of ecology on evolutionary dynamics and evolution on ecological dynamics on contemporary timescales. We experimentally tested for an eco-evolutionary feedback loop in the green peach aphid, Myzus persicae, by manipulating initial densities and evolution. We found strong evidence that initial aphid density alters the rate and direction of evolution, as measured by changes in genotype frequencies through time. We also found that evolution of aphids within only 16 days, or approximately three generations, alters the rate of population growth and predicts density compared to nonevolving controls. The impact of evolution on population dynamics also depended on density. In one evolution treatment, evolution accelerated population growth by up to 10.3% at high initial density or reduced it by up to 6.4% at low initial density. The impact of evolution on population growth was as strong as or stronger than that caused by a threefold change in intraspecific density. We found that, taken together, ecological condition, here intraspecific density, alters evolutionary dynamics, which in turn alter concurrent population growth rate (ecological dynamics) in an eco-evolutionary feedback loop. Our results suggest that ignoring evolution in studies predicting population dynamics might lead us to over- or underestimate population density and that we cannot predict the evolutionary outcome within aphid populations without considering population size.

Disentangling the effects of climate, density dependence, and harvest on an iconic large herbivore's population dynamics.

PubMed

Koons, David N; Colchero, Fernando; Hersey, Kent; Gimenez, Olivier

2015-06-01

Understanding the relative effects of climate, harvest, and density dependence on population dynamics is critical for guiding sound population management, especially for ungulates in arid and semiarid environments experiencing climate change. To address these issues for bison in southern Utah, USA, we applied a Bayesian state-space model to a 72-yr time series of abundance counts. While accounting for known harvest (as well as live removal) from the population, we found that the bison population in southern Utah exhibited a strong potential to grow from low density (β0 = 0.26; Bayesian credible interval based on 95% of the highest posterior density [BCI] = 0.19-0.33), and weak but statistically significant density dependence (β1 = -0.02, BCI = -0.04 to -0.004). Early spring temperatures also had strong positive effects on population growth (Pfat1 = 0.09, BCI = 0.04-0.14), much more so than precipitation and other temperature-related variables (model weight > three times more than that for other climate variables). Although we hypothesized that harvest is the primary driving force of bison population dynamics in southern Utah, our elasticity analysis indicated that changes in early spring temperature could have a greater relative effect on equilibrium abundance than either harvest or. the strength of density dependence. Our findings highlight the utility of incorporating elasticity analyses into state-space population models, and the need to include climatic processes in wildlife management policies and planning.

Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

PubMed

Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H; Oli, Madan K

2012-01-01

Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λ(s) was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λ(s) included 1.0 (0.52-1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

Stochastic Population Dynamics of a Montane Ground-Dwelling Squirrel

PubMed Central

Hostetler, Jeffrey A.; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H.; Oli, Madan K.

2012-01-01

Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990–2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λs was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λs included 1.0 (0.52–1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration. PMID:22479616

Climatic and density influences on recruitment in an irruptive population of Roosevelt elk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Starns, Heath D.; Ricca, Mark A.; Duarte, Adam; Weckerly, Floyd W.

2014-01-01

Current paradigms of ungulate population ecology recognize that density-dependent and independent mechanisms are not always mutually exclusive. Long-term data sets are necessary to assess the relative strength of each mechanism, especially when populations display irruptive dynamics. Using an 18-year time series of population abundances of Roosevelt elk (Cervus elaphus roosevelti) inhabiting Redwood National Park in northwestern California we assessed the influence of population size and climatic variation on elk recruitment and whether irruptive dynamics occurred. An information-theoretic model selection analysis indicated that abundance lagged 2 years and neither climatic factors nor a mix of abundance and climatic factors influenced elk recruitment. However, density-dependent recruitment differed between when the population was declining and when the population increased and then stabilized at an abundance lower than at the start of the decline. The population displayed irruptive dynamics.

Dispersal-mediated effect of microhabitat availability and density dependence determine population dynamics of a forest floor web spider.

PubMed

Takada, Mayura B; Miyashita, Tadashi

2014-09-01

Landscapes in nature can be viewed as a continuum of small total habitable area with high fragmentation to widely spreading habitats. The dispersal-mediated rescue effect predominates in the former landscapes, while classical density-dependent processes generally prevail in widely spread habitats. A similar principle should be applied to populations of organisms utilizing microhabitats in limited supply. To test this hypothesis, we examined the population dynamics of a web spider, Neriene brongersmai, in 16 populations with varying degrees of microhabitat availability, and we explored whether: (i) high microhabitat availability improves survival rate during density-independent movement, while the resultant high density reduces survival rate in a density-dependent manner; and (ii) temporal population stability increases with microhabitat availability at the population level. Furthermore, we conducted two types of field experiments to verify whether high microhabitat availability actually reduces mortality associated with web-site movement. Field observations revealed that demographic change in N. brongersmai populations was affected by three factors at different stages, namely the microhabitat limitation from the early to late juvenile stages, the density dependence from the late juvenile to adult stages and the food limitation from the adult to the next early juvenile stages. In addition, there was a tendency for a positive association between population stability and microhabitat availability at the population level. A small-scale experiment, where the frequency of spider web relocation was equalized artificially, revealed that high microhabitat availability elevated the survival rate during a movement event between web-sites. The larger spatiotemporal scale experiment also revealed an improved spider survival rate following treatment with high microhabitat availability, even though spider density was kept at a relatively low level. The population dynamics of N. brongersmai can be determined primarily by density-independent processes based on web-site fragmentation and density-dependent processes driven by interference competition. We conclude that depending on the amount of habitat resources, the relative importance of the two contrasting paradigms-equilibrium and non-equilibrium-appears to vary, even within a particular system. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

A consumer-resource approach to the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism.

PubMed

Holland, J Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L

2010-05-01

Like predation and competition, mutualism is now recognized as a consumer-resource (C-R) interaction, including, in particular, bi-directional (e.g., coral, plant-mycorrhizae) and uni-directional (e.g., ant-plant defense, plant-pollinator) C-R mutualisms. Here, we develop general theory for the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism based on the C-R mechanism of interspecific interaction. To test the influence of C-R interactions on the dynamics and stability of bi- and uni-directional C-R mutualisms, we developed simple models that link consumer functional response of one mutualistic species with the resources supplied by another. Phase-plane analyses show that the ecological dynamics of C-R mutualisms are stable in general. Most transient behavior leads to an equilibrium of mutualistic coexistence, at which both species densities are greater than in the absence of interactions. However, due to the basic nature of C-R interactions, certain density-dependent conditions can lead to C-R dynamics characteristic of predator-prey interactions, in which one species overexploits and causes the other to go extinct. Consistent with empirical phenomena, these results suggest that the C-R interaction can provide a broad mechanism for understanding density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism. By unifying predation, competition, and mutualism under the common ecological framework of consumer-resource theory, we may also gain a better understanding of the universal features of interspecific interactions in general.

A consumer-resource approach to the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2010-01-01

Like predation and competition, mutualism is now recognized as a consumer resource (C-R) interaction, including, in particular, bi-directional (e.g., coral, plant- mycorrhizae) and uni-directional (e.g., ant-plant defense, plant-pollinator) C-R mutualisms. Here, we develop general theory for the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism based on the C-R mechanism of interspecific interaction. To test the influence of C-R interactions on the dynamics and stability of bi- and uni-directional C-R mutualisms, we developed simple models that link consumer functional response of one mutualistic species with the resources supplied by another. Phase-plane analyses show that the ecological dynamics of C-R mutualisms are stable in general. Most transient behavior leads to an equilibrium of mutualistic coexistence, at which both species densities are greater than in the absence of interactions. However, due to the basic nature of C-R interactions, certain density-dependent conditions can lead to C-R dynamics characteristic of predator-prey interactions, in which one species overexploits and causes the other to go extinct. Consistent with empirical phenomena, these results suggest that the C-R interaction can provide a broad mechanism for understanding density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism. By unifying predation, competition, and mutualism under the common ecological framework of consumer-resource theory, we may also gain a better understanding of the universal features of interspecific interactions in general.

Critical patch size generated by Allee effect in gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.)

Treesearch

E. Vercken; A.M. Kramer; P.C. Tobin; J.M. Drake

2011-01-01

Allee effects are important dynamical mechanisms in small-density populations in which per capita population growth rate increases with density. When positive density dependence is sufficiently severe (a 'strong' Allee effect), a critical density arises below which populations do not persist. For spatially distributed populations subject to dispersal, theory...

Exposing extinction risk analysis to pathogens: Is disease just another form of density dependence?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, L.R.; McCallum, H.; Lafferty, K.D.; Sabo, J.L.; Dobson, A.

2005-01-01

In the United States and several other countries, the development of population viability analyses (PVA) is a legal requirement of any species survival plan developed for threatened and endangered species. Despite the importance of pathogens in natural populations, little attention has been given to host-pathogen dynamics in PVA. To study the effect of infectious pathogens on extinction risk estimates generated from PVA, we review and synthesize the relevance of host-pathogen dynamics in analyses of extinction risk. We then develop a stochastic, density-dependent host-parasite model to investigate the effects of disease on the persistence of endangered populations. We show that this model converges on a Ricker model of density dependence under a suite of limiting assumptions, including a high probability that epidemics will arrive and occur. Using this modeling framework, we then quantify: (1) dynamic differences between time series generated by disease and Ricker processes with the same parameters; (2) observed probabilities of quasi-extinction for populations exposed to disease or self-limitation; and (3) bias in probabilities of quasi-extinction estimated by density-independent PVAs when populations experience either form of density dependence. Our results suggest two generalities about the relationships among disease, PVA, and the management of endangered species. First, disease more strongly increases variability in host abundance and, thus, the probability of quasi-extinction, than does self-limitation. This result stems from the fact that the effects and the probability of occurrence of disease are both density dependent. Second, estimates of quasi-extinction are more often overly optimistic for populations experiencing disease than for those subject to self-limitation. Thus, although the results of density-independent PVAs may be relatively robust to some particular assumptions about density dependence, they are less robust when endangered populations are known to be susceptible to disease. If potential management actions involve manipulating pathogens, then it may be useful to model disease explicitly. ?? 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

The role of density-dependent individual growth in the persistence of freshwater salmonid populations.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone; Crivelli, Alain J; Jesensek, Dusan; De Leo, Giulio A

2008-06-01

Theoretical and empirical models of populations dynamics have paid little attention to the implications of density-dependent individual growth on the persistence and regulation of small freshwater salmonid populations. We have therefore designed a study aimed at testing our hypothesis that density-dependent individual growth is a process that enhances population recovery and reduces extinction risk in salmonid populations in a variable environment subject to disturbance events. This hypothesis was tested in two newly introduced marble trout (Salmo marmoratus) populations living in Slovenian streams (Zakojska and Gorska) subject to severe autumn floods. We developed a discrete-time stochastic individual-based model of population dynamics for each population with demographic parameters and compensatory responses tightly calibrated on data from individually tagged marble trout. The occurrence of severe flood events causing population collapses was explicitly accounted for in the model. We used the model in a population viability analysis setting to estimate the quasi-extinction risk and demographic indexes of the two marble trout populations when individual growth was density-dependent. We ran a set of simulations in which the effect of floods on population abundance was explicitly accounted for and another set of simulations in which flood events were not included in the model. These simulation results were compared with those of scenarios in which individual growth was modelled with density-independent Von Bertalanffy growth curves. Our results show how density-dependent individual growth may confer remarkable resilience to marble trout populations in case of major flood events. The resilience to flood events shown by the simulation results can be explained by the increase in size-dependent fecundity as a consequence of the drop in population size after a severe flood, which allows the population to quickly recover to the pre-event conditions. Our results suggest that density-dependent individual growth plays a potentially powerful role in the persistence of freshwater salmonids living in streams subject to recurrent yet unpredictable flood events.

Finite metapopulation models with density-dependent migration and stochastic local dynamics

PubMed Central

Saether, B.-E.; Engen, S.; Lande, R.

1999-01-01

The effects of small density-dependent migration on the dynamics of a metapopulation are studied in a model with stochastic local dynamics. We use a diffusion approximation to study how changes in the migration rate and habitat occupancy affect the rates of local colonization and extinction. If the emigration rate increases or if the immigration rate decreases with local population size, a positive expected rate of change in habitat occupancy is found for a greater range of habitat occupancies than when the migration is density-independent. In contrast, the reverse patterns of density dependence in respective emigration and immigration reduce the range of habitat occupancies where the metapopulation will be viable. This occurs because density-dependent migration strongly influences both the establishment and rescue effects in the local dynamics of metapopulations.

Age or stage structure? A comparison of dynamic outcomes from discrete age- and stage-structured population models.

PubMed

Wikan, Arild

2012-06-01

Discrete stage-structured density-dependent and discrete age-structured density-dependent population models are considered. Regarding the former, we prove that the model at hand is permanent (i.e., that the population will neither go extinct nor exhibit explosive oscillations) and given density dependent fecundity terms we also show that species with delayed semelparous life histories tend to be more stable than species which possess precocious semelparous life histories. Moreover, our findings together with results obtained from other stage-structured models seem to illustrate a fairly general ecological principle, namely that iteroparous species are more stable than semelparous species. Our analysis of various age-structured models does not necessarily support the conclusions above. In fact, species with precocious life histories now appear to possess better stability properties than species with delayed life histories, especially in the iteroparous case. We also show that there are dynamical outcomes from semelparous age-structured models which we are not able to capture in corresponding stage-structured cases. Finally, both age- and stage-structured population models may generate periodic dynamics of low period (either exact or approximate). The important prerequisite is to assume density-dependent survival probabilities.

A Global Picture of the Gamma-Ricker Map: A Flexible Discrete-Time Model with Factors of Positive and Negative Density Dependence.

PubMed

Liz, Eduardo

2018-02-01

The gamma-Ricker model is one of the more flexible and general discrete-time population models. It is defined on the basis of the Ricker model, introducing an additional parameter [Formula: see text]. For some values of this parameter ([Formula: see text], population is overcompensatory, and the introduction of an additional parameter gives more flexibility to fit the stock-recruitment curve to field data. For other parameter values ([Formula: see text]), the gamma-Ricker model represents populations whose per-capita growth rate combines both negative density dependence and positive density dependence. The former can lead to overcompensation and dynamic instability, and the latter can lead to a strong Allee effect. We study the impact of the cooperation factor in the dynamics and provide rigorous conditions under which increasing the Allee effect strength stabilizes or destabilizes population dynamics, promotes or prevents population extinction, and increases or decreases population size. Our theoretical results also include new global stability criteria and a description of the possible bifurcations.

Population dynamics and mutualism: Functional responses of benefits and costs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Bronstein, Judith L.

2002-01-01

We develop an approach for studying population dynamics resulting from mutualism by employing functional responses based on density‐dependent benefits and costs. These functional responses express how the population growth rate of a mutualist is modified by the density of its partner. We present several possible dependencies of gross benefits and costs, and hence net effects, to a mutualist as functions of the density of its partner. Net effects to mutualists are likely a monotonically saturating or unimodal function of the density of their partner. We show that fundamental differences in the growth, limitation, and dynamics of a population can occur when net effects to that population change linearly, unimodally, or in a saturating fashion. We use the mutualism between senita cactus and its pollinating seed‐eating moth as an example to show the influence of different benefit and cost functional responses on population dynamics and stability of mutualisms. We investigated two mechanisms that may alter this mutualism's functional responses: distribution of eggs among flowers and fruit abortion. Differences in how benefits and costs vary with density can alter the stability of this mutualism. In particular, fruit abortion may allow for a stable equilibrium where none could otherwise exist.

Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

USGS Publications Warehouse

McEachern, Kathryn; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Ellis, Martha M.; Morris, William F.; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlen, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer I.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ganesan, Rengaian; Thorpe, Andrea S.; Menges, Eric S.

2013-01-01

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

PubMed

Crone, Elizabeth E; Ellis, Martha M; Morris, William F; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlén, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N; Knight, Tiffany M; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer L; Doak, Daniel F; Ganesan, Rengaian; McEachern, Kathyrn; Thorpe, Andrea S; Menges, Eric S

2013-10-01

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Spatial distribution of limited resources and local density regulation in juvenile Atlantic salmon.

PubMed

Finstad, Anders G; Einum, Sigurd; Ugedal, Ola; Forseth, Torbjørn

2009-01-01

1. Spatial heterogeneity of resources may influence competition among individuals and thus have a fundamental role in shaping population dynamics and carrying capacity. In the present study, we identify shelter opportunities as a limiting resource for juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.). Experimental and field studies are combined in order to demonstrate how the spatial distribution of shelters may influence population dynamics on both within and among population scales. 2. In closed experimental streams, fish performance scaled negatively with decreasing shelter availability and increasing densities. In contrast, the fish in open stream channels dispersed according to shelter availability and performance of fish remaining in the streams did not depend on initial density or shelters. 3. The field study confirmed that spatial variation in densities of 1-year-old juveniles was governed both by initial recruit density and shelter availability. Strength of density-dependent population regulation, measured as carrying capacity, increased with decreasing number of shelters. 4. Nine rivers were surveyed for spatial variation in shelter availability and increased shelter heterogeneity tended to decrease maximum observed population size (measured using catch statistics of adult salmon as a proxy). 5. Our studies highlight the importance of small-scale within-population spatial structure in population dynamics and demonstrate that not only the absolute amount of limiting resources but also their spatial arrangement can be an important factor influencing population carrying capacity.

A kinetic theory for age-structured stochastic birth-death processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, Tom; Greenman, Chris

Classical age-structured mass-action models such as the McKendrick-von Foerster equation have been extensively studied but they are structurally unable to describe stochastic fluctuations or population-size-dependent birth and death rates. Conversely, current theories that include size-dependent population dynamics (e.g., carrying capacity) cannot be easily extended to take into account age-dependent birth and death rates. In this paper, we present a systematic derivation of a new fully stochastic kinetic theory for interacting age-structured populations. By defining multiparticle probability density functions, we derive a hierarchy of kinetic equations for the stochastic evolution of an aging population undergoing birth and death. We show that the fully stochastic age-dependent birth-death process precludes factorization of the corresponding probability densities, which then must be solved by using a BBGKY-like hierarchy. Our results generalize both deterministic models and existing master equation approaches by providing an intuitive and efficient way to simultaneously model age- and population-dependent stochastic dynamics applicable to the study of demography, stem cell dynamics, and disease evolution. NSF.

Regulation of Aedes aegypti Population Dynamics in Field Systems: Quantifying Direct and Delayed Density Dependence

PubMed Central

Walsh, Rachael K.; Aguilar, Cristobal L.; Facchinelli, Luca; Valerio, Laura; Ramsey, Janine M.; Scott, Thomas W.; Lloyd, Alun L.; Gould, Fred

2013-01-01

Transgenic strains of Aedes aegypti have been engineered to help control transmission of dengue virus. Although resources have been invested in developing the strains, we lack data on the ecology of mosquitoes that could impact the success of this approach. Although studies of intra-specific competition have been conducted using Ae. aegypti larvae, none of these studies examine mixed age cohorts at densities that occur in the field, with natural nutrient levels. Experiments were conducted in Mexico to determine the impact of direct and delayed density dependence on Ae. aegypti populations. Natural water, food, and larval densities were used to estimate the impacts of density dependence on larval survival, development, and adult body size. Direct and delayed density-dependent factors had a significant impact on larval survival, larval development, and adult body size. These results indicate that control methods attempting to reduce mosquito populations may be counteracted by density-dependent population regulation. PMID:23669230

Positive and Negative Feedbacks and Free-Scale Pattern Distribution in Rural-Population Dynamics

PubMed Central

Alados, Concepción L.; Errea, Paz; Gartzia, Maite; Saiz, Hugo; Escós, Juan

2014-01-01

Depopulation of rural areas is a widespread phenomenon that has occurred in most industrialized countries, and has contributed significantly to a reduction in the productivity of agro-ecological resources. In this study, we identified the main trends in the dynamics of rural populations in the Central Pyrenees in the 20th C and early 21st C, and used density independent and density dependent models and identified the main factors that have influenced the dynamics. In addition, we investigated the change in the power law distribution of population size in those periods. Populations exhibited density-dependent positive feedback between 1960 and 2010, and a long-term positive correlation between agricultural activity and population size, which has resulted in a free-scale population distribution that has been disrupted by the collapse of the traditional agricultural society and by emigration to the industrialized cities. We concluded that complex socio-ecological systems that have strong feedback mechanisms can contribute to disruptive population collapses, which can be identified by changes in the pattern of population distribution. PMID:25474704

Spatial heterogeneity in the carrying capacity of sika deer in Japan.

PubMed

Iijima, Hayato; Ueno, Mayumi

2016-06-09

Carrying capacity is 1 driver of wildlife population dynamics. Although in previous studies carrying capacity was considered to be a fixed entity, it may differ among locations due to environmental variation. The factors underlying variability in carrying capacity, however, have rarely been examined. Here, we investigated spatial heterogeneity in the carrying capacity of Japanese sika deer ( Cervus nippon ) from 2005 to 2014 in Yamanashi Prefecture, central Japan (mesh with grid cells of 5.5×4.6 km) by state-space modeling. Both carrying capacity and density dependence differed greatly among cells. Estimated carrying capacities ranged from 1.34 to 98.4 deer/km 2 . According to estimated population dynamics, grid cells with larger proportions of artificial grassland and deciduous forest were subject to lower density dependence and higher carrying capacity. We conclude that population dynamics of ungulates may vary spatially through spatial variation in carrying capacity and that the density level for controlling ungulate abundance should be based on the current density level relative to the carrying capacity for each area.

Effects of temporal variation in temperature and density dependence on insect population dynamics

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Understanding effects of environmental variation on insect populations is important in light of predictions about increasing future climatic variability. In order to understand the effects of changing environmental variation on population dynamics and life history evolution in insects one would need...

Modeling fish community dynamics in Florida Everglades: Role of temperature variation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Al-Rabai'ah, H. A.; Koh, H. L.; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Lee, Hooi-Ling

2002-01-01

The model shows that the temperature dependent starvation mortality is an important factor that influences fish population densities. It also shows high fish population densities at some temperature ranges when this consumption need is minimum. Several sensitivity analyses involving variations in temperature terms, food resources and water levels are conducted to ascertain the relative importance of temperature dependence terms.

Dynamic multipopulation and density dependent evolutionary games related to replicator dynamics. A metasimplex concept.

PubMed

Argasinski, Krzysztof

2006-07-01

This paper contains the basic extensions of classical evolutionary games (multipopulation and density dependent models). It is shown that classical bimatrix approach is inconsistent with other approaches because it does not depend on proportion between populations. The main conclusion is that interspecific proportion parameter is important and must be considered in multipopulation models. The paper provides a synthesis of both extensions (a metasimplex concept) which solves the problem intrinsic in the bimatrix model. It allows us to model interactions among any number of subpopulations including density dependence effects. We prove that all modern approaches to evolutionary games are closely related. All evolutionary models (except classical bimatrix approaches) can be reduced to a single population general model by a simple change of variables. Differences between classic bimatrix evolutionary games and a new model which is dependent on interspecific proportion are shown by examples.

Density-dependent resistance of the gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar, to its nucleopolyhedrovirus

Treesearch

James R. Reilly; Ann E. Hajek

2007-01-01

The processes controlling disease resistance can strongly influence the population dynamics of insect outbreaks. Evidence that disease resistance is density-dependent is accumulating, but the exact form of this relationship is highly variable from species to species.

Ecological change points: The strength of density dependence and the loss of history.

PubMed

Ponciano, José M; Taper, Mark L; Dennis, Brian

2018-05-01

Change points in the dynamics of animal abundances have extensively been recorded in historical time series records. Little attention has been paid to the theoretical dynamic consequences of such change-points. Here we propose a change-point model of stochastic population dynamics. This investigation embodies a shift of attention from the problem of detecting when a change will occur, to another non-trivial puzzle: using ecological theory to understand and predict the post-breakpoint behavior of the population dynamics. The proposed model and the explicit expressions derived here predict and quantify how density dependence modulates the influence of the pre-breakpoint parameters into the post-breakpoint dynamics. Time series transitioning from one stationary distribution to another contain information about where the process was before the change-point, where is it heading and how long it will take to transition, and here this information is explicitly stated. Importantly, our results provide a direct connection of the strength of density dependence with theoretical properties of dynamic systems, such as the concept of resilience. Finally, we illustrate how to harness such information through maximum likelihood estimation for state-space models, and test the model robustness to widely different forms of compensatory dynamics. The model can be used to estimate important quantities in the theory and practice of population recovery. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Density-dependence as a size-independent regulatory mechanism.

PubMed

de Vladar, Harold P

2006-01-21

The growth function of populations is central in biomathematics. The main dogma is the existence of density-dependence mechanisms, which can be modelled with distinct functional forms that depend on the size of the population. One important class of regulatory functions is the theta-logistic, which generalizes the logistic equation. Using this model as a motivation, this paper introduces a simple dynamical reformulation that generalizes many growth functions. The reformulation consists of two equations, one for population size, and one for the growth rate. Furthermore, the model shows that although population is density-dependent, the dynamics of the growth rate does not depend either on population size, nor on the carrying capacity. Actually, the growth equation is uncoupled from the population size equation, and the model has only two parameters, a Malthusian parameter rho and a competition coefficient theta. Distinct sign combinations of these parameters reproduce not only the family of theta-logistics, but also the van Bertalanffy, Gompertz and Potential Growth equations, among other possibilities. It is also shown that, except for two critical points, there is a general size-scaling relation that includes those appearing in the most important allometric theories, including the recently proposed Metabolic Theory of Ecology. With this model, several issues of general interest are discussed such as the growth of animal population, extinctions, cell growth and allometry, and the effect of environment over a population.

The puzzle of partial migration: Adaptive dynamics and evolutionary game theory perspectives.

PubMed

De Leenheer, Patrick; Mohapatra, Anushaya; Ohms, Haley A; Lytle, David A; Cushing, J M

2017-01-07

We consider the phenomenon of partial migration which is exhibited by populations in which some individuals migrate between habitats during their lifetime, but others do not. First, using an adaptive dynamics approach, we show that partial migration can be explained on the basis of negative density dependence in the per capita fertilities alone, provided that this density dependence is attenuated for increasing abundances of the subtypes that make up the population. We present an exact formula for the optimal proportion of migrants which is expressed in terms of the vital rates of migrant and non-migrant subtypes only. We show that this allocation strategy is both an evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) as well as a convergence stable strategy (CSS). To establish the former, we generalize the classical notion of an ESS because it is based on invasion exponents obtained from linearization arguments, which fail to capture the stabilizing effects of the nonlinear density dependence. These results clarify precisely when the notion of a "weak ESS", as proposed in Lundberg (2013) for a related model, is a genuine ESS. Secondly, we use an evolutionary game theory approach, and confirm, once again, that partial migration can be attributed to negative density dependence alone. In this context, the result holds even when density dependence is not attenuated. In this case, the optimal allocation strategy towards migrants is the same as the ESS stemming from the analysis based on the adaptive dynamics. The key feature of the population models considered here is that they are monotone dynamical systems, which enables a rather comprehensive mathematical analysis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Combined effects of climate, predation, and density dependence on Greater and Lesser Scaup population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Beth E.; Hooten, Mevin B.; DeVink, Jean-Michel; Koons, David N.

2015-01-01

An understanding of species relationships is critical in the management and conservation of populations facing climate change, yet few studies address how climate alters species interactions and other population drivers. We use a long-term, broad-scale data set of relative abundance to examine the influence of climate, predators, and density dependence on the population dynamics of declining scaup (Aythya) species within the core of their breeding range. The state-space modeling approach we use applies to a wide range of wildlife species, especially populations monitored over broad spatiotemporal extents. Using this approach, we found that immediate snow cover extent in the preceding winter and spring had the strongest effects, with increases in mean snow cover extent having a positive effect on the local surveyed abundance of scaup. The direct effects of mesopredator abundance on scaup population dynamics were weaker, but the results still indicated a potential interactive process between climate and food web dynamics (mesopredators, alternative prey, and scaup). By considering climate variables and other potential effects on population dynamics, and using a rigorous estimation framework, we provide insight into complex ecological processes for guiding conservation and policy actions aimed at mitigating and reversing the decline of scaup.

Disentangling density-dependent dynamics using full annual cycle models and Bayesian model weight updating

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Orin J.; McGowan, Conor P.; Devers, Patrick K.

2017-01-01

Density dependence regulates populations of many species across all taxonomic groups. Understanding density dependence is vital for predicting the effects of climate, habitat loss and/or management actions on wild populations. Migratory species likely experience seasonal changes in the relative influence of density dependence on population processes such as survival and recruitment throughout the annual cycle. These effects must be accounted for when characterizing migratory populations via population models.To evaluate effects of density on seasonal survival and recruitment of a migratory species, we used an existing full annual cycle model framework for American black ducks Anas rubripes, and tested different density effects (including no effects) on survival and recruitment. We then used a Bayesian model weight updating routine to determine which population model best fit observed breeding population survey data between 1990 and 2014.The models that best fit the survey data suggested that survival and recruitment were affected by density dependence and that density effects were stronger on adult survival during the breeding season than during the non-breeding season.Analysis also suggests that regulation of survival and recruitment by density varied over time. Our results showed that different characterizations of density regulations changed every 8–12 years (three times in the 25-year period) for our population.Synthesis and applications. Using a full annual cycle, modelling framework and model weighting routine will be helpful in evaluating density dependence for migratory species in both the short and long term. We used this method to disentangle the seasonal effects of density on the continental American black duck population which will allow managers to better evaluate the effects of habitat loss and potential habitat management actions throughout the annual cycle. The method here may allow researchers to hone in on the proper form and/or strength of density dependence for use in models for conservation recommendations.

Kinetic theory of age-structured stochastic birth-death processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenman, Chris D.; Chou, Tom

2016-01-01

Classical age-structured mass-action models such as the McKendrick-von Foerster equation have been extensively studied but are unable to describe stochastic fluctuations or population-size-dependent birth and death rates. Stochastic theories that treat semi-Markov age-dependent processes using, e.g., the Bellman-Harris equation do not resolve a population's age structure and are unable to quantify population-size dependencies. Conversely, current theories that include size-dependent population dynamics (e.g., mathematical models that include carrying capacity such as the logistic equation) cannot be easily extended to take into account age-dependent birth and death rates. In this paper, we present a systematic derivation of a new, fully stochastic kinetic theory for interacting age-structured populations. By defining multiparticle probability density functions, we derive a hierarchy of kinetic equations for the stochastic evolution of an aging population undergoing birth and death. We show that the fully stochastic age-dependent birth-death process precludes factorization of the corresponding probability densities, which then must be solved by using a Bogoliubov--Born--Green--Kirkwood--Yvon-like hierarchy. Explicit solutions are derived in three limits: no birth, no death, and steady state. These are then compared with their corresponding mean-field results. Our results generalize both deterministic models and existing master equation approaches by providing an intuitive and efficient way to simultaneously model age- and population-dependent stochastic dynamics applicable to the study of demography, stem cell dynamics, and disease evolution.

Spatial heterogeneity in the carrying capacity of sika deer in Japan

PubMed Central

Iijima, Hayato; Ueno, Mayumi

2016-01-01

Abstract Carrying capacity is 1 driver of wildlife population dynamics. Although in previous studies carrying capacity was considered to be a fixed entity, it may differ among locations due to environmental variation. The factors underlying variability in carrying capacity, however, have rarely been examined. Here, we investigated spatial heterogeneity in the carrying capacity of Japanese sika deer ( Cervus nippon ) from 2005 to 2014 in Yamanashi Prefecture, central Japan (mesh with grid cells of 5.5×4.6 km) by state-space modeling. Both carrying capacity and density dependence differed greatly among cells. Estimated carrying capacities ranged from 1.34 to 98.4 deer/km 2 . According to estimated population dynamics, grid cells with larger proportions of artificial grassland and deciduous forest were subject to lower density dependence and higher carrying capacity. We conclude that population dynamics of ungulates may vary spatially through spatial variation in carrying capacity and that the density level for controlling ungulate abundance should be based on the current density level relative to the carrying capacity for each area. PMID:29692470

Impact of food supplementation and methionine on high densities of cotton rats: Support of the amino-acid-quality hypothesis?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Webb, R.E.; Leslie, David M.; Lochmiller, R.L.; Masters, R.E.

2005-01-01

Considerable research supports the tenet that quantity and quality of food limit vertebrate populations. We evaluated predictions that increased availabilities of food and the essential amino acid methionine were related to population limitation of the hispid cotton rat (Sigmodon hispidus). Effects of supplemental food and methionine on density, survival, and reproductive parameters of wild cotton rats were assessed in north-central Oklahoma in 1998-1999. Twelve enclosed groups of 16 adult cotton rats each (8 male, 8 female) were randomly assigned to either no supplementation (control), supplementation with a mixed ration that had methionine at slightly below maintenance levels (0.20%), or a methionine-enhanced mixed ration (1.20%). In general, densities of cotton rats were twice as high and were sustained longer with dietary supplementation, and methionine-supplemented populations maintained the highest densities. Treatment effects on survival depended on time of year, with higher survival in supplemented enclosures in October and November. Per capita recruitment was highest with methionine-enhanced food. Treatment effects on proportions of overall and female cotton rats in reproductive condition depended on sampling date, but males were most reproductively active with methionine supplementation. Methionine supplementation resulted in an earlier and longer reproductive season. Density-dependent and density-independent factors no doubt interplay to determine population dynamics of cotton rats, but our results suggest that methionine plays a role in the population dynamics of wild cotton rats, apparently by enhancing overall density, recruitment, and reproductive activity of males.

Consumers limit the abundance and dynamics of a perennial shrub with a seed bank

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kauffman, M.J.; Maron, J.L.

2006-01-01

For nearly 30 years, ecologists have argued that predators of seeds and seedlings seldom have population-level effects on plants with persistent seed banks and density-dependent seedling survival. We parameterized stage-based population models that incorporated density dependence and seed dormancy with data from a 5.5-year experiment that quantified how granivorous mice and herbivorous voles influence bush lupine (Lupinus arboreus) demography. We asked how seed dormancy and density-dependent seedling survival mediate the impacts of these consumers in dune and grassland habitats. In dune habitat, mice reduced analytical ?? (the intrinsic rate of population growth) by 39%, the equilibrium number of above-ground plants by 90%, and the seed bank by 98%; voles had minimal effects. In adjacent grasslands, mice had minimal effects, but seedling herbivory by voles reduced analytical ?? by 15% and reduced both the equilibrium number of aboveground plants and dormant seeds by 63%. A bootstrap analysis demonstrated that these consumer effects were robust to parameter uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that the quantitative strengths of seed dormancy and density-dependent seedling survival-not their mere existence-critically mediate consumer effects. This study suggests that plant population dynamics and distribution may be more strongly influenced by consumers of seeds and seedlings than is currently recognized. ?? 2006 by The University of Chicago.

Estimating Allee dynamics before they can be observed: polar bears as a case study.

PubMed

Molnár, Péter K; Lewis, Mark A; Derocher, Andrew E

2014-01-01

Allee effects are an important component in the population dynamics of numerous species. Accounting for these Allee effects in population viability analyses generally requires estimates of low-density population growth rates, but such data are unavailable for most species and particularly difficult to obtain for large mammals. Here, we present a mechanistic modeling framework that allows estimating the expected low-density growth rates under a mate-finding Allee effect before the Allee effect occurs or can be observed. The approach relies on representing the mechanisms causing the Allee effect in a process-based model, which can be parameterized and validated from data on the mechanisms rather than data on population growth. We illustrate the approach using polar bears (Ursus maritimus), and estimate their expected low-density growth by linking a mating dynamics model to a matrix projection model. The Allee threshold, defined as the population density below which growth becomes negative, is shown to depend on age-structure, sex ratio, and the life history parameters determining reproduction and survival. The Allee threshold is thus both density- and frequency-dependent. Sensitivity analyses of the Allee threshold show that different combinations of the parameters determining reproduction and survival can lead to differing Allee thresholds, even if these differing combinations imply the same stable-stage population growth rate. The approach further shows how mate-limitation can induce long transient dynamics, even in populations that eventually grow to carrying capacity. Applying the models to the overharvested low-density polar bear population of Viscount Melville Sound, Canada, shows that a mate-finding Allee effect is a plausible mechanism for slow recovery of this population. Our approach is generalizable to any mating system and life cycle, and could aid proactive management and conservation strategies, for example, by providing a priori estimates of minimum conservation targets for rare species or minimum eradication targets for pests and invasive species.

Estimating Allee Dynamics before They Can Be Observed: Polar Bears as a Case Study

PubMed Central

Molnár, Péter K.; Lewis, Mark A.; Derocher, Andrew E.

2014-01-01

Allee effects are an important component in the population dynamics of numerous species. Accounting for these Allee effects in population viability analyses generally requires estimates of low-density population growth rates, but such data are unavailable for most species and particularly difficult to obtain for large mammals. Here, we present a mechanistic modeling framework that allows estimating the expected low-density growth rates under a mate-finding Allee effect before the Allee effect occurs or can be observed. The approach relies on representing the mechanisms causing the Allee effect in a process-based model, which can be parameterized and validated from data on the mechanisms rather than data on population growth. We illustrate the approach using polar bears (Ursus maritimus), and estimate their expected low-density growth by linking a mating dynamics model to a matrix projection model. The Allee threshold, defined as the population density below which growth becomes negative, is shown to depend on age-structure, sex ratio, and the life history parameters determining reproduction and survival. The Allee threshold is thus both density- and frequency-dependent. Sensitivity analyses of the Allee threshold show that different combinations of the parameters determining reproduction and survival can lead to differing Allee thresholds, even if these differing combinations imply the same stable-stage population growth rate. The approach further shows how mate-limitation can induce long transient dynamics, even in populations that eventually grow to carrying capacity. Applying the models to the overharvested low-density polar bear population of Viscount Melville Sound, Canada, shows that a mate-finding Allee effect is a plausible mechanism for slow recovery of this population. Our approach is generalizable to any mating system and life cycle, and could aid proactive management and conservation strategies, for example, by providing a priori estimates of minimum conservation targets for rare species or minimum eradication targets for pests and invasive species. PMID:24427306

Body downsizing caused by non-consumptive social stress severely depresses population growth rate

PubMed Central

Edeline, Eric; Haugen, Thrond O.; Weltzien, Finn-Arne; Claessen, David; Winfield, Ian J.; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Vøllestad, L. Asbjørn

2010-01-01

Chronic social stress diverts energy away from growth, reproduction and immunity, and is thus a potential driver of population dynamics. However, the effects of social stress on demographic density dependence remain largely overlooked in ecological theory. Here we combine behavioural experiments, physiology and population modelling to show in a top predator (pike Esox lucius) that social stress alone may be a primary driver of demographic density dependence. Doubling pike density in experimental ponds under controlled prey availability did not significantly change prey intake by pike (i.e. did not significantly change interference or exploitative competition), but induced a neuroendocrine stress response reflecting a size-dependent dominance hierarchy, depressed pike energetic status and lowered pike body growth rate by 23 per cent. Assuming fixed size-dependent survival and fecundity functions parameterized for the Windermere (UK) pike population, stress-induced smaller body size shifts age-specific survival rates and lowers age-specific fecundity, which in Leslie matrices projects into reduced population rate of increase (λ) by 37–56%. Our models also predict that social stress flattens elasticity profiles of λ to age-specific survival and fecundity, thus making population persistence more dependent on old individuals. Our results suggest that accounting for non-consumptive social stress from competitors and predators is necessary to accurately understand, predict and manage food-web dynamics. PMID:19923130

Modelling the impact of vector control interventions on Anopheles gambiae population dynamics

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Intensive anti-malaria campaigns targeting the Anopheles population have demonstrated substantial reductions in adult mosquito density. Understanding the population dynamics of Anopheles mosquitoes throughout their whole lifecycle is important to assess the likely impact of vector control interventions alone and in combination as well as to aid the design of novel interventions. Methods An ecological model of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato populations incorporating a rainfall-dependent carrying capacity and density-dependent regulation of mosquito larvae in breeding sites is developed. The model is fitted to adult mosquito catch and rainfall data from 8 villages in the Garki District of Nigeria (the 'Garki Project') using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and prior estimates of parameters derived from the literature. The model is used to compare the impact of vector control interventions directed against adult mosquito stages - long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLIN), indoor residual spraying (IRS) - and directed against aquatic mosquito stages, alone and in combination on adult mosquito density. Results A model in which density-dependent regulation occurs in the larval stages via a linear association between larval density and larval death rates provided a good fit to seasonal adult mosquito catches. The effective mosquito reproduction number in the presence of density-dependent regulation is dependent on seasonal rainfall patterns and peaks at the start of the rainy season. In addition to killing adult mosquitoes during the extrinsic incubation period, LLINs and IRS also result in less eggs being oviposited in breeding sites leading to further reductions in adult mosquito density. Combining interventions such as the application of larvicidal or pupacidal agents that target the aquatic stages of the mosquito lifecycle with LLINs or IRS can lead to substantial reductions in adult mosquito density. Conclusions Density-dependent regulation of anopheline larvae in breeding sites ensures robust, stable mosquito populations that can persist in the face of intensive vector control interventions. Selecting combinations of interventions that target different stages in the vector's lifecycle will result in maximum reductions in mosquito density. PMID:21798055

Modelling density-dependent resistance in insect-pathogen interactions.

PubMed

White, K A; Wilson, K

1999-10-01

We consider a mathematical model for a host-pathogen interaction where the host population is split into two categories: those susceptible to disease and those resistant to disease. Since the model was motivated by studies on insect populations, we consider a discrete-time model to reflect the discrete generations which are common among insect species. Whether an individual is born susceptible or resistant to disease depends on the local population levels at the start of each generation. In particular, we are interested in the case where the fraction of resistant individuals in the population increases as the total population increases. This may be seen as a positive feedback mechanism since disease is the only population control imposed upon the system. Moreover, it reflects recent experimental observations from noctuid moth-baculovirus interactions that pathogen resistance may increase with larval density. We find that the inclusion of a resistant class can stabilise unstable host-pathogen interactions but there is greatest regulation when the fraction born resistant is density independent. Nonetheless, inclusion of density dependence can still allow intrinsically unstable host-pathogen dynamics to be stabilised provided that this effect is sufficiently small. Moreover, inclusion of density-dependent resistance to disease allows the system to give rise to bistable dynamics in which the final outcome is dictated by the initial conditions for the model system. This has implications for the management of agricultural pests using biocontrol agents-in particular, it is suggested that the propensity for density-dependent resistance be determined prior to such a biocontrol attempt in order to be sure that this will result in the prevention of pest outbreaks, rather than their facilitation. Finally we consider how the cost of resistance to disease affects model outcomes and discover that when there is no cost to resistance, the model predicts stable periodic outbreaks of the insect population. The results are interpreted ecologically and future avenues for research to address the shortfalls in the present model system are discussed. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

PubMed

Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

2014-11-01

Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10.5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean population size. Results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of a species over its range may be facilitated by taking the spatial structure of population size into account as well as by considering changes in population processes as a function of position within the range of the species. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Spatial dynamics of a population with stage-dependent diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azevedo, F.; Coutinho, R. M.; Kraenkel, R. A.

2015-05-01

We explore the spatial dynamics of a population whose individuals go through life stages with very different dispersal capacities. We model it through a system of partial differential equations of the reaction-diffusion kind, with nonlinear diffusion terms that may depend on population density and on the stage. This model includes a few key biological ingredients: growth and saturation, life stage structure, small population effects, and diffusion dependent on the stage. In particular, we consider that adults exhibit two distinct classes: one highly mobile and the other less mobile but with higher fecundity rate, and the development of juveniles into one or the other depends on population density. We parametrize the model with estimated parameters of an insect species, the brown planthopper. We focus on a situation akin to an invasion of the species in a new habitat and find that the front of invasion is led by the most mobile adult class. We also show that the trade-off between dispersal and fecundity leads to invasion speed attaining its maximum at an intermediate value of the diffusion coefficient of the most mobile class.

Predicting population survival under future climate change: density dependence, drought and extraction in an insular bighorn sheep.

PubMed

Colchero, Fernando; Medellin, Rodrigo A; Clark, James S; Lee, Raymond; Katul, Gabriel G

2009-05-01

1. Our understanding of the interplay between density dependence, climatic perturbations, and conservation practices on the dynamics of small populations is still limited. This can result in uninformed strategies that put endangered populations at risk. Moreover, the data available for a large number of populations in such circumstances are sparse and mined with missing data. Under the current climate change scenarios, it is essential to develop appropriate inferential methods that can make use of such data sets. 2. We studied a population of desert bighorn sheep introduced to Tiburon Island, Mexico in 1975 and subjected to irregular extractions for the last 10 years. The unique attributes of this population are absence of predation and disease, thereby permitting us to explore the combined effect of density dependence, environmental variability and extraction in a 'controlled setting.' Using a combination of nonlinear discrete models with long-term field data, we constructed three basic Bayesian state space models with increasing density dependence (DD), and the same three models with the addition of summer drought effects. 3. We subsequently used Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the combined effect of drought, DD, and increasing extractions on the probability of population survival under two climate change scenarios (based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predictions): (i) increase in drought variability; and (ii) increase in mean drought severity. 4. The population grew from 16 individuals introduced in 1975 to close to 700 by 1993. Our results show that the population's growth was dominated by DD, with drought having a secondary but still relevant effect on its dynamics. 5. Our predictions suggest that under climate change scenario (i), extraction dominates the fate of the population, while for scenario (ii), an increase in mean drought affects the population's probability of survival in an equivalent magnitude as extractions. Thus, for the long-term survival of the population, our results stress that a more variable environment is less threatening than one in which the mean conditions become harsher. Current climate change scenarios and their underlying uncertainty make studies such as this one crucial for understanding the dynamics of ungulate populations and their conservation.

Phenology and density-dependent dispersal predict patterns of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) impact

Treesearch

James A. Powell; Barbara J. Bentz

2014-01-01

For species with irruptive population behavior, dispersal is an important component of outbreak dynamics. We developed and parameterized a mechanistic model describing mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) population demographics and dispersal across a landscape. Model components include temperature-dependent phenology, host tree colonization...

Complex life cycles and density dependence: assessing the contribution of egg mortality to amphibian declines.

PubMed

Vonesh, James R; De la Cruz, Omar

2002-11-01

In the last decade there has been increasing evidence of amphibian declines from relatively pristine areas. Some declines are hypothesized to be the result of egg mortality caused by factors such as elevated solar UV-B irradiation, chemical pollutants, pathogenic fungi, and climate change. However, the population-level consequences of egg mortality have not been examined explicitly, and may be complicated by density dependence in intervening life-history stages. Here we develop a demographic model for two amphibians with contrasting life-history strategies, Bufo boreas and Ambystoma macrodactylum. We then use the complementary approaches of elasticity and limitation to examine the relationships among stage-specific survival rates, larval-stage density dependence and amphibian population dynamics. Elasticity analyses showed that for a range of density dependence scenarios both species were more sensitive to changes in post-embryonic survival parameters, particularly juvenile survival, than to egg survival, suggesting that mortality of later stages may play an important role in driving declines. Limitation analyses revealed that larval density dependence can dramatically alter the consequences of early mortality, reducing or even reversing the expected population-level effects of egg mortality. Thus, greater focus on later life stages and density dependence is called for to accurately assess how stressors are likely to affect amphibian populations of conservation concern.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population

PubMed Central

Bartolino, Valerio; Tian, Huidong; Bergström, Ulf; Jounela, Pekka; Aro, Eero; Dieterich, Christian; Meier, H. E. Markus; Cardinale, Massimiliano; Bland, Barbara

2017-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms of spatial population dynamics is crucial for the successful management of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms of spatial distribution are generally complex due to the concurrent forcing of both density-dependent species interactions and density-independent environmental factors. Despite the high economic value and central ecological importance of cod in the Baltic Sea, the drivers of its spatio-temporal population dynamics have not been analytically investigated so far. In this paper, we used an extensive trawl survey dataset in combination with environmental data to investigate the spatial dynamics of the distribution of the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades using Generalized Additive Models. The results showed that adult cod distribution was mainly affected by cod population size, and to a minor degree by small-scale hydrological factors and the extent of suitable reproductive areas. As population size decreases, the cod population concentrates to the southern part of the Baltic Sea, where the preferred more marine environment conditions are encountered. Using the fitted models, we predicted the Baltic cod distribution back to the 1970s and a temporal index of cod spatial occupation was developed. Our study will contribute to the management and conservation of this important resource and of the ecosystem where it occurs, by showing the forces shaping its spatial distribution and therefore the potential response of the population to future exploitation and environmental changes. PMID:28207804

A BASIC Program for Use in Teaching Population Dynamics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kidd, N. A. C.

1984-01-01

Describes an interactive simulation model which can be used to demonstrate population growth with discrete or overlapping populations and the effects of random, constant, or density-dependent mortality. The program listing (for Commodore PET 4032 microcomputer) is included. (Author/DH)

Optimal control of Atlantic population Canada geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hauser, C.E.; Runge, M.C.; Cooch, E.G.; Johnson, F.A.; Harvey, W.F.

2007-01-01

Management of Canada geese (Branta canadensis) can be a balance between providing sustained harvest opportunity while not allowing populations to become overabundant and cause damage. In this paper, we focus on the Atlantic population of Canada geese and use stochastic dynamic programming to determine the optimal harvest strategy over a range of plausible models for population dynamics. There is evidence to suggest that the population exhibits significant age structure, and it is possible to reconstruct age structure from surveys. Consequently the harvest strategy is a function of the age composition, as well as the abundance, of the population. The objective is to maximize harvest while maintaining the number of breeding adults in the population between specified upper and lower limits. In addition, the total harvest capacity is limited and there is uncertainty about the strength of density-dependence. We find that under a density-independent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at the highest acceptable abundance. However if harvest capacity is limited, then the optimal long-term breeding population size is lower than the highest acceptable level, to reduce the risk of the population growing to an unacceptably large size. Under the proposed density-dependent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at an intermediate level between the bounds on acceptable population size; limits to harvest capacity have little effect on the optimal long-term population size. It is clear that the strength of density-dependence and constraints on harvest significantly affect the optimal harvest strategy for this population. Model discrimination might be achieved in the long term, while continuing to meet management goals, by adopting an adaptive management strategy.

The effect of area size and predation on the time to extinction of prairie vole populations. simulation studies via SERDYCA: a Spatially-Explicit Individual-Based Model of Rodent Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kostova, T; Carlsen, T

2003-11-21

We present a spatially-explicit individual-based computational model of rodent dynamics, customized for the prairie vole species, M. Ochrogaster. The model is based on trophic relationships and represents important features such as territorial competition, mating behavior, density-dependent predation and dispersal out of the modeled spatial region. Vegetation growth and vole fecundity are dependent on climatic components. The results of simulations show that the model correctly predicts the overall temporal dynamics of the population density. Time-series analysis shows a very good match between the periods corresponding to the peak population density frequencies predicted by the model and the ones reported in themore » literature. The model is used to study the relation between persistence, landscape area and predation. We introduce the notions of average time to extinction (ATE) and persistence frequency to quantify persistence. While the ATE decreases with decrease of area, it is a bell-shaped function of the predation level: increasing for 'small' and decreasing for 'large' predation levels.« less

Dynamic regimes of local homogeneous population model with time lag

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neverova, Galina; Frisman, Efim

We investigated Moran - Ricker model with time lag 1. It is made analytical and numerical study of the model. It is shown there is co-existence of various dynamic regimes under the same values of parameters. The model simultaneously possesses several different limit regimes: stable state, periodic fluctuations, and chaotic attractor. The research results show if present population size substantially depends on population number of previous year then it is observed quasi-periodic oscillations. Fluctuations with period 2 occur when the growth of population size is regulated by density dependence in the current year.

When can a single-species, density-dependent model capture the dynamics of a consumer-resource system?

PubMed

Reynolds, Sara A; Brassil, Chad E

2013-12-21

Single-species population models often include density-dependence phenomenologically in order to approximate higher order mechanisms. Here we consider the common scenario in which density-dependence acts via depletion of a renewed resource. When the response of the resource is very quick relative to that of the consumer, the consumer dynamics can be captured by a single-species, density-dependent model. Time scale separation is used to show analytically how the shape of the density-dependent relationship depends on the type of resource and the form of the functional response. Resource types of abiotic, biotic, and biotic with migration are considered, in combination with linear and saturating functional responses. In some cases, we derive familiar forms of single-species models, adding to the justification for their use. In other scenarios novel forms of density-dependence are derived, for example an abiotic resource and a saturating functional response can result in a nonlinear density-dependent relationship in the associated single-species model of the consumer. In this case, the per capita relationship has both concave-up and concave-down sections. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Density-dependent natal dispersal patterns in a leopard population recovering from over-harvest.

PubMed

Fattebert, Julien; Balme, Guy; Dickerson, Tristan; Slotow, Rob; Hunter, Luke

2015-01-01

Natal dispersal enables population connectivity, gene flow and metapopulation dynamics. In polygynous mammals, dispersal is typically male-biased. Classically, the 'mate competition', 'resource competition' and 'resident fitness' hypotheses predict density-dependent dispersal patterns, while the 'inbreeding avoidance' hypothesis posits density-independent dispersal. In a leopard (Panthera pardus) population recovering from over-harvest, we investigated the effect of sex, population density and prey biomass, on age of natal dispersal, distance dispersed, probability of emigration and dispersal success. Over an 11-year period, we tracked 35 subadult leopards using VHF and GPS telemetry. Subadult leopards initiated dispersal at 13.6 ± 0.4 months. Age at commencement of dispersal was positively density-dependent. Although males (11.0 ± 2.5 km) generally dispersed further than females (2.7 ± 0.4 km), some males exhibited opportunistic philopatry when the population was below capacity. All 13 females were philopatric, while 12 of 22 males emigrated. Male dispersal distance and emigration probability followed a quadratic relationship with population density, whereas female dispersal distance was inversely density-dependent. Eight of 12 known-fate females and 5 of 12 known-fate male leopards were successful in settling. Dispersal success did not vary with population density, prey biomass, and for males, neither between dispersal strategies (philopatry vs. emigration). Females formed matrilineal kin clusters, supporting the resident fitness hypothesis. Conversely, mate competition appeared the main driver for male leopard dispersal. We demonstrate that dispersal patterns changed over time, i.e. as the leopard population density increased. We conclude that conservation interventions that facilitated local demographic recovery in the study area also restored dispersal patterns disrupted by unsustainable harvesting, and that this indirectly improved connectivity among leopard populations over a larger landscape.

Density-Dependent Natal Dispersal Patterns in a Leopard Population Recovering from Over-Harvest

PubMed Central

Fattebert, Julien; Balme, Guy; Dickerson, Tristan; Slotow, Rob; Hunter, Luke

2015-01-01

Natal dispersal enables population connectivity, gene flow and metapopulation dynamics. In polygynous mammals, dispersal is typically male-biased. Classically, the ‘mate competition’, ‘resource competition’ and ‘resident fitness’ hypotheses predict density-dependent dispersal patterns, while the ‘inbreeding avoidance’ hypothesis posits density-independent dispersal. In a leopard (Panthera pardus) population recovering from over-harvest, we investigated the effect of sex, population density and prey biomass, on age of natal dispersal, distance dispersed, probability of emigration and dispersal success. Over an 11-year period, we tracked 35 subadult leopards using VHF and GPS telemetry. Subadult leopards initiated dispersal at 13.6 ± 0.4 months. Age at commencement of dispersal was positively density-dependent. Although males (11.0 ± 2.5 km) generally dispersed further than females (2.7 ± 0.4 km), some males exhibited opportunistic philopatry when the population was below capacity. All 13 females were philopatric, while 12 of 22 males emigrated. Male dispersal distance and emigration probability followed a quadratic relationship with population density, whereas female dispersal distance was inversely density-dependent. Eight of 12 known-fate females and 5 of 12 known-fate male leopards were successful in settling. Dispersal success did not vary with population density, prey biomass, and for males, neither between dispersal strategies (philopatry vs. emigration). Females formed matrilineal kin clusters, supporting the resident fitness hypothesis. Conversely, mate competition appeared the main driver for male leopard dispersal. We demonstrate that dispersal patterns changed over time, i.e. as the leopard population density increased. We conclude that conservation interventions that facilitated local demographic recovery in the study area also restored dispersal patterns disrupted by unsustainable harvesting, and that this indirectly improved connectivity among leopard populations over a larger landscape. PMID:25875293

The scaling of contact rates with population density for the infectious disease models.

PubMed

Hu, Hao; Nigmatulina, Karima; Eckhoff, Philip

2013-08-01

Contact rates and patterns among individuals in a geographic area drive transmission of directly-transmitted pathogens, making it essential to understand and estimate contacts for simulation of disease dynamics. Under the uniform mixing assumption, one of two mechanisms is typically used to describe the relation between contact rate and population density: density-dependent or frequency-dependent. Based on existing evidence of population threshold and human mobility patterns, we formulated a spatial contact model to describe the appropriate form of transmission with initial growth at low density and saturation at higher density. We show that the two mechanisms are extreme cases that do not capture real population movement across all scales. Empirical data of human and wildlife diseases indicate that a nonlinear function may work better when looking at the full spectrum of densities. This estimation can be applied to large areas with population mixing in general activities. For crowds with unusually large densities (e.g., transportation terminals, stadiums, or mass gatherings), the lack of organized social contact structure deviates the physical contacts towards a special case of the spatial contact model - the dynamics of kinetic gas molecule collision. In this case, an ideal gas model with van der Waals correction fits well; existing movement observation data and the contact rate between individuals is estimated using kinetic theory. A complete picture of contact rate scaling with population density may help clarify the definition of transmission rates in heterogeneous, large-scale spatial systems. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sexual reproduction and population dynamics: the role of polygyny and demographic sex differences.

PubMed Central

Lindström, J; Kokko, H

1998-01-01

Most models of population dynamics do not take sexual reproduction into account (i.e., they do not consider the role of males). However, assumptions behind this practice--that no demographic sex differences exist and males are always abundant enough to fertilize all the females--are usually not justified in natural populations. On the contrary, demographic sex differences are common, especially in polygynous species. Previous models that consider sexual reproduction report a stabilizing effect through mixing of different genotypes, thus suggesting a decrease in the propensity for complex of dynamics in sexually reproducing populations. Here we show that considering the direct role of males in reproduction and density dependence leads to the conclusion that a two-sex model is not necessarily more stable compared with the corresponding one-sex model. Although solutions exist where sexual reproduction has a stabilizing effect even when no genotypic variability is included (primarily when associated with monogamy), factors like polygyny, sex differences in survival or density dependence, and possible alterations of the primary sex ratio (the Trivers-Willard mechanism), may enlarge the parametric region of complex dynamics. Sexual reproduction therefore does not necessarily increase the stability of population dynamics and can have destabilizing effects, at least in species with complicated mating systems and sexual dimorphism. PMID:9606132

Adaptation to larval crowding in Drosophila ananassae leads to the evolution of population stability.

PubMed

Dey, Snigdhadip; Bose, Joy; Joshi, Amitabh

2012-05-01

Density-dependent selection is expected to lead to population stability, especially if r and K tradeoff. Yet, there is no empirical evidence of adaptation to crowding leading to the evolution of stability. We show that populations of Drosophila ananassae selected for adaptation to larval crowding have higher K and lower r, and evolve greater stability than controls. We also show that increased population growth rates at high density can enhance stability, even in the absence of a decrease in r, by ensuring that the crowding adapted populations do not fall to very low sizes. We discuss our results in the context of traits known to have diverged between the selected and control populations, and compare our results with previous work on the evolution of stability in D. melanogaster. Overall, our results suggest that density-dependent selection may be an important factor promoting the evolution of relatively stable dynamics in natural populations.

Population and prehistory III: food-dependent demography in variable environments.

PubMed

Lee, Charlotte T; Puleston, Cedric O; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

2009-11-01

The population dynamics of preindustrial societies depend intimately on their surroundings, and food is a primary means through which environment influences population size and individual well-being. Food production requires labor; thus, dependence of survival and fertility on food involves dependence of a population's future on its current state. We use a perturbation approach to analyze the effects of random environmental variation on this nonlinear, age-structured system. We show that in expanding populations, direct environmental effects dominate induced population fluctuations, so environmental variability has little effect on mean hunger levels, although it does decrease population growth. The growth rate determines the time until population is limited by space. This limitation introduces a tradeoff between population density and well-being, so population effects become more important than the direct effects of the environment: environmental fluctuation increases mortality, releasing density dependence and raising average well-being for survivors. We discuss the social implications of these findings for the long-term fate of populations as they transition from expansion into limitation, given that conditions leading to high well-being during growth depress well-being during limitation.

Precipitation, density, and population dynamics of desert bighorn sheep on San Andres National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bender, L.C.; Weisenberger, M.E.

2005-01-01

Understanding the determinants of population size and performance for desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis mexicana) is critical to develop effective recovery and management strategies. In arid environments, plant communities and consequently herbivore populations are strongly dependent upon precipitation, which is highly variable seasonally and annually. We conducted a retrospective exploratory analysis of desert bighorn sheep population dynamics on San Andres National Wildlife Refuge (SANWR), New Mexico, 1941-1976, by modeling sheep population size as a function of previous population sizes and precipitation. Population size and trend of desert bighorn were best and well described (R 2=0.89) by a model that included only total annual precipitation as a covariate. Models incorporating density-dependence, delayed density-dependence, and combinations of density and precipitation were less informative than the model containing precipitation alone (??AlCc=8.5-22.5). Lamb:female ratios were positively related to precipitation (current year: F1,34=7.09, P=0.012; previous year: F1,33=3.37, P=0.075) but were unrelated to population size (current year. F1,34=0.04, P=0.843; previous year: F1,33 =0.14, P=0.715). Instantaneous population rate of increase (r) was related to population size (F1,33=5.55; P=0.025). Precipitation limited populations of desert bighorn sheep on SANWR primarily in a density-independent manner by affecting production or survival of lambs, likely through influences on forage quantity and quality. Habitat evaluations and recovery plans for desert bighorn sheep need to consider fundamental influences on desert bighorn populations such as precipitation and food, rather than focus solely on proximate issues such as security cover, predation, and disease. Moreover, the concept of carrying capacity for desert bighorn sheep may need re-evaluation in respect to highly variable (CV =35.6%) localized precipitation patterns. On SANWR carrying capacity for desert bighorn sheep was zero when total annual precipitation was <28.2 cm.

Consequences of cannibalism and competition for food in a smallmouth bass population: An individual-based modeling study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dong, Q.; DeAngelis, D.L.

1998-01-01

We used an individual-based modeling approach to study the consequences of cannibalism and competition for food in a freshwater fish population. We simulated the daily foraging, growth, and survival of the age-0 fish and older juvenile individuals of a sample population to reconstruct patterns of density dependence in the age-0 fish during the growth season. Cannibalism occurs as a part of the foraging process. For age-0 fish, older juvenile fish are both potential cannibals and competitors of food. We found that competition and cannibalism produced intraclass and interclass density dependence. Our modeling results suggested the following. (1) With low density of juvenile fish and weak interclass interactions, the age-0 fish recruitment shows a Beverton-Holt type of density dependence. (2) With high density of juvenile fish and strong interclass interactions, the age-0 fish recruitment shows a Ricker type of density dependence, and overcompensation occurs. (3) Interclass competition of food is responsible for much of the overcompensation. (4) Cannibalism intensifies the changes in the recruitment that are brought about by competition. Cannibalism can (a) generally reduce the recruitment, (b) particularly reduce the maximum level of recruitment, (c) cause overcompensation to occur at lower densities, and (d) produce a stronger overcompensation. (5) Growth is also a function of density. Cannibalism generally improves average growth of cannibals. (6) Variation in the lengths of age-0 fish increases with density and with a decreased average growth. These results imply that cannibalism and competition for food could strongly affect recruitment dynamics. Our model also showed that the rate of cannibalism either could be fairly even through the whole season or could vary dramatically. The individual-based modeling approach can help ecologists understand the mechanistic connection between daily behavioral and physiological processes operating at the level of individual organisms and seasonal patterns of population structure and dynamics. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 1998.

Global asymptotic stability of plant-seed bank models.

PubMed

Eager, Eric Alan; Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte

2014-07-01

Many plant populations have persistent seed banks, which consist of viable seeds that remain dormant in the soil for many years. Seed banks are important for plant population dynamics because they buffer against environmental perturbations and reduce the probability of extinction. Viability of the seeds in the seed bank can depend on the seed's age, hence it is important to keep track of the age distribution of seeds in the seed bank. In this paper we construct a general density-dependent plant-seed bank model where the seed bank is age-structured. We consider density dependence in both seedling establishment and seed production, since previous work has highlighted that overcrowding can suppress both of these processes. Under certain assumptions on the density dependence, we prove that there is a globally stable equilibrium population vector which is independent of the initial state. We derive an analytical formula for the equilibrium population using methods from feedback control theory. We apply these results to a model for the plant species Cirsium palustre and its seed bank.

Changes in seasonal climate outpace compensatory density-dependence in eastern brook trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bassar, Ronald D.; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Nislow, Keith H.; Whiteley, Andrew R.

2016-01-01

Understanding how multiple extrinsic (density-independent) factors and intrinsic (density-dependent) mechanisms influence population dynamics has become increasingly urgent in the face of rapidly changing climates. It is particularly unclear how multiple extrinsic factors with contrasting effects among seasons are related to declines in population numbers and changes in mean body size and whether there is a strong role for density-dependence. The primary goal of this study was to identify the roles of seasonal variation in climate driven environmental direct effects (mean stream flow and temperature) versus density-dependence on population size and mean body size in eastern brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We use data from a 10-year capture-mark-recapture study of eastern brook trout in four streams in Western Massachusetts, USA to parameterize a discrete-time population projection model. The model integrates matrix modeling techniques used to characterize discrete population structures (age, habitat type and season) with integral projection models (IPMs) that characterize demographic rates as continuous functions of organismal traits (in this case body size). Using both stochastic and deterministic analyses we show that decreases in population size are due to changes in stream flow and temperature and that these changes are larger than what can be compensated for through density-dependent responses. We also show that the declines are due mostly to increasing mean stream temperatures decreasing the survival of the youngest age class. In contrast, increases in mean body size over the same period are the result of indirect changes in density with a lesser direct role of climate-driven environmental change.

Dynamical Analysis of Density-dependent Selection in a Discrete one-island Migration Model

Treesearch

James H. Roberds; James F. Selgrade

2000-01-01

A system of non-linear difference equations is used to model the effects of density-dependent selection and migration in a population characterized by two alleles at a single gene locus. Results for the existence and stability of polymorphic equilibria are established. Properties for a genetically important class of equilibria associated with complete dominance in...

Immigration Rates during Population Density Reduction in a Coral Reef Fish

PubMed Central

Turgeon, Katrine; Kramer, Donald L.

2016-01-01

Although the importance of density-dependent dispersal has been recognized in theory, few empirical studies have examined how immigration changes over a wide range of densities. In a replicated experiment using a novel approach allowing within-site comparison, we examined changes in immigration rate following the gradual removal of territorial damselfish from a limited area within a much larger patch of continuous habitat. In all sites, immigration occurred at intermediate densities but did not occur before the start of removals and only rarely as density approached zero. In the combined data and in 5 of 7 sites, the number of immigrants was a hump-shaped function of density. This is the first experimental evidence for hump-shaped, density-dependent immigration. This pattern may be more widespread than previously recognized because studies over more limited density ranges have identified positive density dependence at low densities and negative density dependence at high densities. Positive density dependence at low density can arise from limits to the number of potential immigrants and from behavioral preferences for settling near conspecifics. Negative density dependence at high density can arise from competition for resources, especially high quality territories. The potential for non-linear effects of local density on immigration needs to be recognized for robust predictions of conservation reserve function, harvest impacts, pest control, and the dynamics of fragmented populations. PMID:27271081

Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatfield, Jeff S.; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; Krause, Crystal M.

2012-01-01

Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds.

The phenology of space: Spatial aspects of bison density dependence in Yellowstone National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taper, M.L.; Meagher, M.; Jerde, C.L.

2000-01-01

The Yellowstone bison represent the only bison population in the United States that survived in the wild the near-extermination of the late 1800's. This paper capitalizes on a unique opportunity provided by the record of the bison population of Yellowstone National Park (YNP). This population has been intensely monitored for almost four decades. The analysis of long-term spatio-temporal data from 1970-1997 supports the following conclusions. 1) Even though the Yellowstone bison herd exhibits an extended period of what appears to be linear growth, this pattern can be explained with classical density dependent dynamics if one realizes that perhaps the primary response of the herd to increased density is range expansion. 2) Several spatial aspects of social behavior in the YNP bison may be behavioral adaptations by the bison to environmental changes. These behavioral strategies may buffer, temporarily at least, bison population dynamics from the immediate repercussions of possible environmental stress and habitat deterioration. 3) Bison ecological carrying capacity for YNP is on the order of 2800 to 3200 animals. 4) There do appear to be indications of changes in the bison dynamics that are associated with increasing use of sections of the interior road system in winter. 5) The possibility of habitat degradation is indicated.

An evaluation of density-dependent and density-independent influences on population growth rates in Weddell seals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rotella, J.J.; Link, W.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Hadley, G.L.; Garrott, R.A.; Proffitt, K.M.

2009-01-01

Much of the existing literature that evaluates the roles of density-dependent and density-independent factors on population dynamics has been called into question in recent years because measurement errors were not properly dealt with in analyses. Using state-space models to account for measurement errors, we evaluated a set of competing models for a 22-year time series of mark-resight estimates of abundance for a breeding population of female Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) studied in Erebus Bay, Antarctica. We tested for evidence of direct density dependence in growth rates and evaluated whether equilibrium population size was related to seasonal sea-ice extent and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We found strong evidence of negative density dependence in annual growth rates for a population whose estimated size ranged from 438 to 623 females during the study. Based on Bayes factors, a density-dependence-only model was favored over models that also included en! vironmental covariates. According to the favored model, the population had a stationary distribution with a mean of 497 females (SD = 60.5), an expected growth rate of 1.10 (95% credible interval 1.08-1.15) when population size was 441 females, and a rate of 0.90 (95% credible interval 0.87-0.93) for a population of 553 females. A model including effects of SOI did receive some support and indicated a positive relationship between SOI and population size. However, effects of SOI were not large, and including the effect did not greatly reduce our estimate of process variation. We speculate that direct density dependence occurred because rates of adult survival, breeding, and temporary emigration were affected by limitations on per capita food resources and space for parturition and pup-rearing. To improve understanding of the relative roles of various demographic components and their associated vital rates to population growth rate, mark-recapture methods can be applied that incorporate both environmental covariates and the seal abundance estimates that were developed here. An improved understanding of why vital rates change with changing population abundance will only come as we develop a better understanding of the processes affecting marine food resources in the Southern Ocean.

Temporal dynamics of Puumala hantavirus infection in cyclic populations of bank voles.

PubMed

Voutilainen, Liina; Kallio, Eva R; Niemimaa, Jukka; Vapalahti, Olli; Henttonen, Heikki

2016-02-18

Understanding the dynamics of zoonotic pathogens in their reservoir host populations is a prerequisite for predicting and preventing human disease epidemics. The human infection risk of Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) is highest in northern Europe, where populations of the rodent host (bank vole, Myodes glareolus) undergo cyclic fluctuations. We conducted a 7-year capture-mark-recapture study to monitor seasonal and multiannual patterns of the PUUV infection rate in bank vole populations exhibiting a 3-year density cycle. Infected bank voles were most abundant in mid-winter months during years of increasing or peak host density. Prevalence of PUUV infection in bank voles exhibited a regular, seasonal pattern reflecting the annual population turnover and accumulation of infections within each year cohort. In autumn, the PUUV transmission rate tracked increasing host abundance, suggesting a density-dependent transmission. However, prevalence of PUUV infection was similar during the increase and peak years of the density cycle despite a twofold difference in host density. This may result from the high proportion of individuals carrying maternal antibodies constraining transmission during the cycle peak years. Our exceptionally intensive and long-term dataset provides a solid basis on which to develop models to predict the dynamic public health threat posed by PUUV in northern Europe.

Life-History and Spatial Determinants of Somatic Growth Dynamics in Komodo Dragon Populations

PubMed Central

Laver, Rebecca J.; Purwandana, Deni; Ariefiandy, Achmad; Imansyah, Jeri; Forsyth, David; Ciofi, Claudio; Jessop, Tim S.

2012-01-01

Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world’s largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species. PMID:23028983

Implications of seed banking for recruitment of Southern Appalachian woody species

Treesearch

Janneke Hille Ris Lambers; James S. Clark; Michael Lavine

2002-01-01

Seed dormancy is assumed to be unimportant for population dynamics of temperate woody species, because seeds occur at low densities and are short lived in forest soils. However, low soil seed densities may result from low seed production, and even modest seed longevity can buffer against fluctuating seed production, potentially limiting density-dependent mortality and...

A fitness trade-off between seasons causes multigenerational cycles in phenotype and population size

PubMed Central

Betini, Gustavo S; McAdam, Andrew G; Griswold, Cortland K; Norris, D Ryan

2017-01-01

Although seasonality is widespread and can cause fluctuations in the intensity and direction of natural selection, we have little information about the consequences of seasonal fitness trade-offs for population dynamics. Here we exposed populations of Drosophila melanogaster to repeated seasonal changes in resources across 58 generations and used experimental and mathematical approaches to investigate how viability selection on body size in the non-breeding season could affect demography. We show that opposing seasonal episodes of natural selection on body size interacted with both direct and delayed density dependence to cause populations to undergo predictable multigenerational density cycles. Our results provide evidence that seasonality can set the conditions for life-history trade-offs and density dependence, which can, in turn, interact to cause multigenerational population cycles. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18770.001 PMID:28164780

Feedback between Population and Evolutionary Dynamics Determines the Fate of Social Microbial Populations

PubMed Central

Sanchez, Alvaro; Gore, Jeff

2013-01-01

The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50–100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators “spiral” to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the demographic fate of those species that rely on cooperation for their survival. PMID:23637571

Evolution of stochastic demography with life history tradeoffs in density-dependent age-structured populations.

PubMed

Lande, Russell; Engen, Steinar; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2017-10-31

We analyze the stochastic demography and evolution of a density-dependent age- (or stage-) structured population in a fluctuating environment. A positive linear combination of age classes (e.g., weighted by body mass) is assumed to act as the single variable of population size, [Formula: see text], exerting density dependence on age-specific vital rates through an increasing function of population size. The environment fluctuates in a stationary distribution with no autocorrelation. We show by analysis and simulation of age structure, under assumptions often met by vertebrate populations, that the stochastic dynamics of population size can be accurately approximated by a univariate model governed by three key demographic parameters: the intrinsic rate of increase and carrying capacity in the average environment, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], and the environmental variance in population growth rate, [Formula: see text] Allowing these parameters to be genetically variable and to evolve, but assuming that a fourth parameter, [Formula: see text], measuring the nonlinearity of density dependence, remains constant, the expected evolution maximizes [Formula: see text] This shows that the magnitude of environmental stochasticity governs the classical trade-off between selection for higher [Formula: see text] versus higher [Formula: see text] However, selection also acts to decrease [Formula: see text], so the simple life-history trade-off between [Formula: see text]- and [Formula: see text]-selection may be obscured by additional trade-offs between them and [Formula: see text] Under the classical logistic model of population growth with linear density dependence ([Formula: see text]), life-history evolution in a fluctuating environment tends to maximize the average population size. Published under the PNAS license.

Density-dependent intraspecific aggression regulates survival in northern Yellowstone wolves (Canis lupus).

PubMed

Cubaynes, Sarah; MacNulty, Daniel R; Stahler, Daniel R; Quimby, Kira A; Smith, Douglas W; Coulson, Tim

2014-11-01

Understanding the population dynamics of top-predators is essential to assess their impact on ecosystems and to guide their management. Key to this understanding is identifying the mechanisms regulating vital rates. Determining the influence of density on survival is necessary to understand the extent to which human-caused mortality is compensatory or additive. In wolves (Canis lupus), empirical evidence for density-dependent survival is lacking. Dispersal is considered the principal way in which wolves adjust their numbers to prey supply or compensate for human exploitation. However, studies to date have primarily focused on exploited wolf populations, in which density-dependent mechanisms are likely weak due to artificially low wolf densities. Using 13 years of data on 280 collared wolves in Yellowstone National Park, we assessed the effect of wolf density, prey abundance and population structure, as well as winter severity, on age-specific survival in two areas (prey-rich vs. prey-poor) of the national park. We further analysed cause-specific mortality and explored the factors driving intraspecific aggression in the prey-rich northern area of the park. Overall, survival rates decreased during the study. In northern Yellowstone, density dependence regulated adult survival through an increase in intraspecific aggression, independent of prey availability. In the interior of the park, adult survival was less variable and density-independent, despite reduced prey availability. There was no effect of prey population structure in northern Yellowstone, or of winter severity in either area. Survival was similar among yearlings and adults, but lower for adults older than 6 years. Our results indicate that density-dependent intraspecific aggression is a major driver of adult wolf survival in northern Yellowstone, suggesting intrinsic density-dependent mechanisms have the potential to regulate wolf populations at high ungulate densities. When low prey availability or high removal rates maintain wolves at lower densities, limited inter-pack interactions may prevent density-dependent survival, consistent with our findings in the interior of the park. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Chaotic attractors and physical measures for some density dependent Leslie population models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ugarcovici, Ilie; Weiss, Howard

2007-12-01

Following ecologists' discoveries, mathematicians have begun studying extensions of the ubiquitous age structured Leslie population model that allow some survival probabilities and/or fertility rates to depend on population densities. These nonlinear extensions commonly exhibit very complicated dynamics: through computer studies, some authors have discovered robust Hénon-like strange attractors in several families. Population biologists and demographers frequently wish to average a function over many generations and conclude that the average is independent of the initial population distribution. This type of 'ergodicity' seems to be a fundamental tenet in population biology. In this paper we develop the first rigorous ergodic theoretic framework for density dependent Leslie population models. We study two generation models with Ricker and Hassell (recruitment type) fertility terms. We prove that for some parameter regions these models admit a chaotic (ergodic) attractor which supports a unique physical probability measure. This physical measure, having full Lebesgue measure basin, satisfies in the strongest possible sense the population biologist's requirement for ergodicity in their population models. We use the celebrated work of Wang and Young 2001 Commun. Math. Phys. 218 1-97, and our results are the first applications of their method to biology, ecology or demography.

Simulation of Population Processes with a Programmable Pocket Calculator.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kidd, N. A. C.

1979-01-01

Presents a set of simulation models for use in teaching population dynamics. These models are designed specifically for use with a programmable pocket calculator, and can be used to demonstrate growth of populations with discrete or overlapping generations and also to explore effects of density-dependent and -independent mortality. (Author/CS)

Nonlinear dynamics of trions under strong optical excitation in monolayer MoSe2.

PubMed

Ye, Jialiang; Yan, Tengfei; Niu, Binghui; Li, Ying; Zhang, Xinhui

2018-02-05

By employing ultrafast transient reflection measurements based on two-color pump-probe spectroscopy, the population and valley polarization dynamics of trions in monolayer MoSe 2 were investigated at relatively high excitation densities under near-resonant excitation. Both the nonlinear dynamic photobleaching of the trion resonance and the redshift of the exciton resonance were found to be responsible for the excitation-energy- and density-dependent transient reflection change as a result of many-body interactions. Furthermore, from the polarization-resolved measurements, it was revealed that the initial fast population and polarization decay process upon strong photoexcitation observed for trions was determined by trion formation, transient phase-space filling and the short valley lifetime of excitons. The results provide a basic understanding of the nonlinear dynamics of population and valley depolarization of trions, as well as exciton-trion correlation in atomically thin MoSe 2 and other transition metal dichalcogenide materials.

Spatially varying density dependence drives a shifting mosaic of survival in a recovering apex predator (Canis lupus).

PubMed

O'Neil, Shawn T; Bump, Joseph K; Beyer, Dean E

2017-11-01

Understanding landscape patterns in mortality risk is crucial for promoting recovery of threatened and endangered species. Humans affect mortality risk in large carnivores such as wolves ( Canis lupus ), but spatiotemporally varying density dependence can significantly influence the landscape of survival. This potentially occurs when density varies spatially and risk is unevenly distributed. We quantified spatiotemporal sources of variation in survival rates of gray wolves ( C. lupus ) during a 21-year period of population recovery in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA. We focused on mapping risk across time using Cox Proportional Hazards (CPH) models with time-dependent covariates, thus exploring a shifting mosaic of survival. Extended CPH models and time-dependent covariates revealed influences of seasonality, density dependence and experience, as well as individual-level factors and landscape predictors of risk. We used results to predict the shifting landscape of risk at the beginning, middle, and end of the wolf recovery time series. Survival rates varied spatially and declined over time. Long-term change was density-dependent, with landscape predictors such as agricultural land cover and edge densities contributing negatively to survival. Survival also varied seasonally and depended on individual experience, sex, and resident versus transient status. The shifting landscape of survival suggested that increasing density contributed to greater potential for human conflict and wolf mortality risk. Long-term spatial variation in key population vital rates is largely unquantified in many threatened, endangered, and recovering species. Variation in risk may indicate potential for source-sink population dynamics, especially where individuals preemptively occupy suitable territories, which forces new individuals into riskier habitat types as density increases. We encourage managers to explore relationships between adult survival and localized changes in population density. Density-dependent risk maps can identify increasing conflict areas or potential habitat sinks which may persist due to high recruitment in adjacent habitats.

The effects of spatial and temporal heterogeneity on the population dynamics of four animal species in a Danish landscape

PubMed Central

Sibly, Richard M; Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Forchhammer, Mads C; Forbes, Valery E; Topping, Christopher J

2009-01-01

Background Variation in carrying capacity and population return rates is generally ignored in traditional studies of population dynamics. Variation is hard to study in the field because of difficulties controlling the environment in order to obtain statistical replicates, and because of the scale and expense of experimenting on populations. There may also be ethical issues. To circumvent these problems we used detailed simulations of the simultaneous behaviours of interacting animals in an accurate facsimile of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of skylarks Alauda arvensis, voles Microtus agrestis, a ground beetle Bembidion lampros and a linyphiid spider Erigone atra. This allows us to quantify and evaluate the importance of spatial and temporal heterogeneity on the population dynamics of the four species. Results Both spatial and temporal heterogeneity affected the relationship between population growth rate and population density in all four species. Spatial heterogeneity accounted for 23–30% of the variance in population growth rate after accounting for the effects of density, reflecting big differences in local carrying capacity associated with the landscape features important to individual species. Temporal heterogeneity accounted for 3–13% of the variance in vole, skylark and spider, but 43% in beetles. The associated temporal variation in carrying capacity would be problematic in traditional analyses of density dependence. Return rates were less than one in all species and essentially invariant in skylarks, spiders and beetles. Return rates varied over the landscape in voles, being slower where there were larger fluctuations in local population sizes. Conclusion Our analyses estimated the traditional parameters of carrying capacities and return rates, but these are now seen as varying continuously over the landscape depending on habitat quality and the mechanisms of density dependence. The importance of our results lies in our demonstration that the effects of spatial and temporal heterogeneity must be accounted for if we are to have accurate predictive models for use in management and conservation. This is an area which until now has lacked an adequate theoretical framework and methodology. PMID:19549327

Population Dynamics of Belonolaimus longicaudatusin a Cotton Production System

PubMed Central

Crow, W. T.; Weingartner, D. P.; McSorley, R.; Dickson, D. W.

2000-01-01

Belonolaimus longicaudatus is a recognized pathogen of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum), but insufficient information is available on the population dynamics and economic thresholds of B. longicaudatus in cotton production. In this study, data collected from a field in Florida were used to develop models predicting population increases of B. longicaudatus on cotton and population declines under clean fallow. Population densities of B. longicaudatus increased on cotton, reaching a carrying capacity of 139 nematodes/130 cm³ of soil, but decreased exponentially during periods of bare fallow. The model indicated that population densities should decrease each year of monocropped cotton, if an alternate host is not present between sequential cotton crops. Economic thresholds derived from published damage functions and current prices for cotton and nematicides varied from 2 to 5 B. longicaudatus/130 cm³ of soil, depending on the nematicide used. PMID:19270968

Size-density scaling in protists and the links between consumer-resource interaction parameters.

PubMed

DeLong, John P; Vasseur, David A

2012-11-01

Recent work indicates that the interaction between body-size-dependent demographic processes can generate macroecological patterns such as the scaling of population density with body size. In this study, we evaluate this possibility for grazing protists and also test whether demographic parameters in these models are correlated after controlling for body size. We compiled data on the body-size dependence of consumer-resource interactions and population density for heterotrophic protists grazing algae in laboratory studies. We then used nested dynamic models to predict both the height and slope of the scaling relationship between population density and body size for these protists. We also controlled for consumer size and assessed links between model parameters. Finally, we used the models and the parameter estimates to assess the individual- and population-level dependence of resource use on body-size and prey-size selection. The predicted size-density scaling for all models matched closely to the observed scaling, and the simplest model was sufficient to predict the pattern. Variation around the mean size-density scaling relationship may be generated by variation in prey productivity and area of capture, but residuals are relatively insensitive to variation in prey size selection. After controlling for body size, many consumer-resource interaction parameters were correlated, and a positive correlation between residual prey size selection and conversion efficiency neutralizes the apparent fitness advantage of taking large prey. Our results indicate that widespread community-level patterns can be explained with simple population models that apply consistently across a range of sizes. They also indicate that the parameter space governing the dynamics and the steady states in these systems is structured such that some parts of the parameter space are unlikely to represent real systems. Finally, predator-prey size ratios represent a kind of conundrum, because they are widely observed but apparently have little influence on population size and fitness, at least at this level of organization. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Homogenization techniques for population dynamics in strongly heterogeneous landscapes.

PubMed

Yurk, Brian P; Cobbold, Christina A

2018-12-01

An important problem in spatial ecology is to understand how population-scale patterns emerge from individual-level birth, death, and movement processes. These processes, which depend on local landscape characteristics, vary spatially and may exhibit sharp transitions through behavioural responses to habitat edges, leading to discontinuous population densities. Such systems can be modelled using reaction-diffusion equations with interface conditions that capture local behaviour at patch boundaries. In this work we develop a novel homogenization technique to approximate the large-scale dynamics of the system. We illustrate our approach, which also generalizes to multiple species, with an example of logistic growth within a periodic environment. We find that population persistence and the large-scale population carrying capacity is influenced by patch residence times that depend on patch preference, as well as movement rates in adjacent patches. The forms of the homogenized coefficients yield key theoretical insights into how large-scale dynamics arise from the small-scale features.

Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

PubMed

Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C

2017-07-01

Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may have played a role in driving local dynamics. More generally, we demonstrated how state-space models can be used to test evidence for population spatial structure based on survey time-series data. Our study shows the importance of considering spatially structured dynamics, as the inferences from such an approach can lead to a different ecological understanding of the drivers of population declines, and fundamentally different management actions to restore populations. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Modeling the population dynamics of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culcidae), along an elevational gradient in Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ahumada, Jorge A.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.

2004-01-01

We present a population model to understand the effects of temperature and rainfall on the population dynamics of the southern house mosquito, Culex quinquefasciatus Say, along an elevational gradient in Hawaii. We use a novel approach to model the effects of temperature on population growth by dynamically incorporating developmental rate into the transition matrix, by using physiological ages of immatures instead of chronological age or stages. We also model the effects of rainfall on survival of immatures as the cumulative number of days below a certain rain threshold. Finally, we incorporate density dependence into the model as competition between immatures within breeding sites. Our model predicts the upper altitudinal distributions of Cx. quinquefasciatus on the Big Island of Hawaii for self-sustaining mosquito and migrating summer sink populations at 1,475 and 1,715 m above sea level, respectively. Our model predicts that mosquitoes at lower elevations can grow under a broader range of rainfall parameters than middle and high elevation populations. Density dependence in conjunction with the seasonal forcing imposed by temperature and rain creates cycles in the dynamics of the population that peak in the summer and early fall. The model provides a reasonable fit to the available data on mosquito abundance for the east side of Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The predictions of our model indicate the importance of abiotic conditions on mosquito dynamics and have important implications for the management of diseases transmitted by Cx. quinquefasciatus in Hawaii and elsewhere.

Restoration ecology: two-sex dynamics and cost minimization.

PubMed

Molnár, Ferenc; Caragine, Christina; Caraco, Thomas; Korniss, Gyorgy

2013-01-01

We model a spatially detailed, two-sex population dynamics, to study the cost of ecological restoration. We assume that cost is proportional to the number of individuals introduced into a large habitat. We treat dispersal as homogeneous diffusion in a one-dimensional reaction-diffusion system. The local population dynamics depends on sex ratio at birth, and allows mortality rates to differ between sexes. Furthermore, local density dependence induces a strong Allee effect, implying that the initial population must be sufficiently large to avert rapid extinction. We address three different initial spatial distributions for the introduced individuals; for each we minimize the associated cost, constrained by the requirement that the species must be restored throughout the habitat. First, we consider spatially inhomogeneous, unstable stationary solutions of the model's equations as plausible candidates for small restoration cost. Second, we use numerical simulations to find the smallest rectangular cluster, enclosing a spatially homogeneous population density, that minimizes the cost of assured restoration. Finally, by employing simulated annealing, we minimize restoration cost among all possible initial spatial distributions of females and males. For biased sex ratios, or for a significant between-sex difference in mortality, we find that sex-specific spatial distributions minimize the cost. But as long as the sex ratio maximizes the local equilibrium density for given mortality rates, a common homogeneous distribution for both sexes that spans a critical distance yields a similarly low cost.

Restoration Ecology: Two-Sex Dynamics and Cost Minimization

PubMed Central

Molnár, Ferenc; Caragine, Christina; Caraco, Thomas; Korniss, Gyorgy

2013-01-01

We model a spatially detailed, two-sex population dynamics, to study the cost of ecological restoration. We assume that cost is proportional to the number of individuals introduced into a large habitat. We treat dispersal as homogeneous diffusion in a one-dimensional reaction-diffusion system. The local population dynamics depends on sex ratio at birth, and allows mortality rates to differ between sexes. Furthermore, local density dependence induces a strong Allee effect, implying that the initial population must be sufficiently large to avert rapid extinction. We address three different initial spatial distributions for the introduced individuals; for each we minimize the associated cost, constrained by the requirement that the species must be restored throughout the habitat. First, we consider spatially inhomogeneous, unstable stationary solutions of the model’s equations as plausible candidates for small restoration cost. Second, we use numerical simulations to find the smallest rectangular cluster, enclosing a spatially homogeneous population density, that minimizes the cost of assured restoration. Finally, by employing simulated annealing, we minimize restoration cost among all possible initial spatial distributions of females and males. For biased sex ratios, or for a significant between-sex difference in mortality, we find that sex-specific spatial distributions minimize the cost. But as long as the sex ratio maximizes the local equilibrium density for given mortality rates, a common homogeneous distribution for both sexes that spans a critical distance yields a similarly low cost. PMID:24204810

Influence of body condition on the population dynamics of Atlantic salmon with consideration of the potential impact of sea lice.

PubMed

Susdorf, R; Salama, N K G; Lusseau, D

2017-11-21

Atlantic salmon Salmo salar is an iconic species of high conservation and economic importance. At sea, individuals typically are subject to sea lice infestation, which can have detrimental effects on their host. Over recent decades, the body condition and marine survival in NE Atlantic stocks have generally decreased, reflected in fewer adults returning to rivers, which is partly attributable to sea lice. We developed a deterministic stage-structured population model to assess condition-mediated population dynamics resulting in changing fecundity, age at sexual maturation and marine survival rate. The model is parameterized using data from the North Esk system, north-east Scotland. Both constant and density-dependent juvenile survival rates are considered. We show that even small sea lice-mediated changes in mean body condition of MSW can cause substantial population declines, whereas 1SW condition is less influential. Density dependence alleviates the condition-mediated population effect. The resilience of the population to demographic perturbations declines as adult condition is reduced. Indirect demographic changes in salmonid life-history traits (e.g., body condition) are often considered unimportant for population trajectory. The model shows that Atlantic salmon population dynamics can be highly responsive to sea lice-mediated effects on adult body condition, thus highlighting the importance of non-lethal parasitic long-term effects. © 2017 The Authors Journal of Fish Diseases Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cyclic dynamics in a simple vertebrate predator-prey community.

PubMed

Gilg, Olivier; Hanski, Ilkka; Sittler, Benoît

2003-10-31

The collared lemming in the high-Arctic tundra in Greenland is preyed upon by four species of predators that show marked differences in the numbers of lemmings each consumes and in the dependence of their dynamics on lemming density. A predator prey model based on the field-estimated predator responses robustly predicts 4-year periodicity in lemming dynamics, in agreement with long-term empirical data. There is no indication in the field that food or space limits lemming population growth, nor is there need in the model to consider those factors. The cyclic dynamics are driven by a 1-year delay in the numerical response of the stoat and stabilized by strongly density-dependent predation by the arctic fox, the snowy owl, and the long-tailed skua.

The interplay between seasonality and density: consequences for female breeding decisions in a small cyclic herbivore

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Cyclic rodent population dynamics are subjected to both intrinsic regulatory processes such as density-dependence and extrinsic environmental forcing. Among extrinsic factors, seasonal environmental variation is understood to facilitate cycles. In rodents, these processes have been studied mostly independently and their relative importance for population dynamics is poorly known. Results We performed a detailed analysis of common vole (Microtus arvalis) reproduction in a cyclic population using a spatially extensive data set over 17 years in central-western France. Environmental seasonality was the main source of explained variation in common vole reproduction. Additionally, inter-annual variation in the environment explained a smaller part of the variance in reproduction in spring and summer than in winter, whereas the effect of density was only found in autumn and winter. In particular, we detected a strong impact of plant productivity on fecundity during the breeding season, with low vegetation productivity being able to bring vole reproduction nearly to a halt. In contrast, vole reproduction during autumn and winter was mainly shaped by intrinsic factors, with only the longer and heavier females being able to reproduce. The effect of population density on reproduction was negative, mediated by direct negative effects on the proportion of breeders in autumn and winter during outbreak years and by a delayed negative effect on litter size the following year. Conclusions During the main breeding season, variability of female vole reproduction is predominantly shaped by food resources, suggesting that only highly productive environment may induce vole outbreaks. During fall and winter, variability of female vole reproduction is mainly controlled by intrinsic factors, with high population density suppressing reproduction. This suggests, in this cyclic population, that negative direct density dependence on reproduction could explain winter declines after outbreaks. PMID:24886481

The interplay between seasonality and density: consequences for female breeding decisions in a small cyclic herbivore.

PubMed

Pinot, Adrien; Gauffre, Bertrand; Bretagnolle, Vincent

2014-05-28

Cyclic rodent population dynamics are subjected to both intrinsic regulatory processes such as density-dependence and extrinsic environmental forcing. Among extrinsic factors, seasonal environmental variation is understood to facilitate cycles. In rodents, these processes have been studied mostly independently and their relative importance for population dynamics is poorly known. We performed a detailed analysis of common vole (Microtus arvalis) reproduction in a cyclic population using a spatially extensive data set over 17 years in central-western France. Environmental seasonality was the main source of explained variation in common vole reproduction. Additionally, inter-annual variation in the environment explained a smaller part of the variance in reproduction in spring and summer than in winter, whereas the effect of density was only found in autumn and winter. In particular, we detected a strong impact of plant productivity on fecundity during the breeding season, with low vegetation productivity being able to bring vole reproduction nearly to a halt. In contrast, vole reproduction during autumn and winter was mainly shaped by intrinsic factors, with only the longer and heavier females being able to reproduce. The effect of population density on reproduction was negative, mediated by direct negative effects on the proportion of breeders in autumn and winter during outbreak years and by a delayed negative effect on litter size the following year. During the main breeding season, variability of female vole reproduction is predominantly shaped by food resources, suggesting that only highly productive environment may induce vole outbreaks. During fall and winter, variability of female vole reproduction is mainly controlled by intrinsic factors, with high population density suppressing reproduction. This suggests, in this cyclic population, that negative direct density dependence on reproduction could explain winter declines after outbreaks.

Allee effects and the spatial dynamics of a locally endangered butterfly, the high brown fritillary (Argynnis adippe).

PubMed

Bonsall, Michael B; Dooley, Claire A; Kasparson, Anna; Brereton, Tom; Roy, David B; Thomas, Jeremy A

2014-01-01

Conservation of endangered species necessitates a full appreciation of the ecological processes affecting the regulation, limitation, and persistence of populations. These processes are influenced by birth, death, and dispersal events, and characterizing them requires careful accounting of both the deterministic and stochastic processes operating at both local and regional population levels. We combined ecological theory and observations on Allee effects by linking mathematical analysis and the spatial and temporal population dynamics patterns of a highly endangered butterfly, the high brown fritillary, Argynnis adippe. Our theoretical analysis showed that the role of density-dependent feedbacks in the presence of local immigration can influence the strength of Allee effects. Linking this theory to the analysis of the population data revealed strong evidence for both negative density dependence and Allee effects at the landscape or regional scale. These regional dynamics are predicted to be highly influenced by immigration. Using a Bayesian state-space approach, we characterized the local-scale births, deaths, and dispersal effects together with measurement and process uncertainty in the metapopulation. Some form of an Allee effect influenced almost three-quarters of these local populations. Our joint analysis of the deterministic and stochastic dynamics suggests that a conservation priority for this species would be to increase resource availability in currently occupied and, more importantly, in unoccupied sites.

Spatial dynamics of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England, Wales and the United States.

PubMed

Eggo, Rosalind M; Cauchemez, Simon; Ferguson, Neil M

2011-02-06

There is still limited understanding of key determinants of spatial spread of influenza. The 1918 pandemic provides an opportunity to elucidate spatial determinants of spread on a large scale. To better characterize the spread of the 1918 major wave, we fitted a range of city-to-city transmission models to mortality data collected for 246 population centres in England and Wales and 47 cities in the US. Using a gravity model for city-to-city contacts, we explored the effect of population size and distance on the spread of disease and tested assumptions regarding density dependence in connectivity between cities. We employed Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate parameters of the model for population, infectivity, distance and density dependence. We inferred the most likely transmission trees for both countries. For England and Wales, a model that estimated the degree of density dependence in connectivity between cities was preferable by deviance information criterion comparison. Early in the major wave, long distance infective interactions predominated, with local infection events more likely as the epidemic became widespread. For the US, with fewer more widely dispersed cities, statistical power was lacking to estimate population size dependence or the degree of density dependence, with the preferred model depending on distance only. We find that parameters estimated from the England and Wales dataset can be applied to the US data with no likelihood penalty.

Spatial dynamics of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England, Wales and the United States

PubMed Central

Eggo, Rosalind M.; Cauchemez, Simon; Ferguson, Neil M.

2011-01-01

There is still limited understanding of key determinants of spatial spread of influenza. The 1918 pandemic provides an opportunity to elucidate spatial determinants of spread on a large scale. To better characterize the spread of the 1918 major wave, we fitted a range of city-to-city transmission models to mortality data collected for 246 population centres in England and Wales and 47 cities in the US. Using a gravity model for city-to-city contacts, we explored the effect of population size and distance on the spread of disease and tested assumptions regarding density dependence in connectivity between cities. We employed Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate parameters of the model for population, infectivity, distance and density dependence. We inferred the most likely transmission trees for both countries. For England and Wales, a model that estimated the degree of density dependence in connectivity between cities was preferable by deviance information criterion comparison. Early in the major wave, long distance infective interactions predominated, with local infection events more likely as the epidemic became widespread. For the US, with fewer more widely dispersed cities, statistical power was lacking to estimate population size dependence or the degree of density dependence, with the preferred model depending on distance only. We find that parameters estimated from the England and Wales dataset can be applied to the US data with no likelihood penalty. PMID:20573630

Analysis of spatial density dependence in gypsy moth mortality

Treesearch

Andrew Liebhold; Joseph S. Elkinton

1991-01-01

The gypsy moth is perhaps the most widely studied forest insect in the world and much of this research has focused on various aspects of population dynamics. But despite this voluminous amount of research we still lack a good understanding of which, if any, natural enemy species regulate gypsy moth populations. The classical approach to analyzing insect population...

Effects of host plant and larval density on intraspecific competition in larvae of the Emerald Ash Borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In many insects, competition for food, mate, and/or space among different individuals of the same species is a pervasive phenomenon with ecological consequences such as density-dependent regulation of insect abundance or population dynamics. The emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Col...

Mate Limitation in Fungal Plant Parasites Can Lead to Cyclic Epidemics in Perennial Host Populations.

PubMed

Ravigné, Virginie; Lemesle, Valérie; Walter, Alicia; Mailleret, Ludovic; Hamelin, Frédéric M

2017-03-01

Fungal plant parasites represent a growing concern for biodiversity and food security. Most ascomycete species are capable of producing different types of infectious spores both asexually and sexually. Yet the contributions of both types of spores to epidemiological dynamics have still to been fully researched. Here we studied the effect of mate limitation in parasites which perform both sexual and asexual reproduction in the same host. Since mate limitation implies positive density dependence at low population density, we modeled the dynamics of such species with both density-dependent (sexual) and density-independent (asexual) transmission rates. A first simple SIR model incorporating these two types of transmission from the infected compartment, suggested that combining sexual and asexual spore production can generate persistently cyclic epidemics in a significant part of the parameter space. It was then confirmed that cyclic persistence could occur in realistic situations by parameterizing a more detailed model fitting the biology of the Black Sigatoka disease of banana, for which literature data are available. We discuss the implications of these results for research on and management of Sigatoka diseases of banana.

Ecology and Population Dynamics of Juvenile Dungeness Crab in Grays Harbor Estuary and Adjacent Nearshore Waters of the Southern Washington Coast

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-10-01

77 5.1.2 Models of environmental and density- dependent recruitment ................................................ 80 5.2 Other Population...juvenile Dungeness crabs and flatfish ........................................ 17 Figure 1.6. Seasonal change in bottom temperature and bottom salinity ...to 2+ ............. 120 Figure 6.14. Size dependence of relative size increments per molt (expressed as a fraction of premolt size), as obtained from

[Are simple time lags responsible for cyclic variation of population density? : A comparison of laboratory population dynamics of Brachionus calyciflorus pallas (rotatoria) with computer simulations].

PubMed

Halbach, Udo; Burkhardt, Heinz Jürgen

1972-09-01

Laboratory populations of the rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus were cultured at different temperatures (25, 20, 15°C) but otherwise at constant conditions. The population densities showed relatively constant oscillations (Figs. 1 to 3A-C). Amplitudes and frequencies of the oscillations were positively correlated with temperature (Table 1). A test was made, whether the logistic growth function with simple time lag is able to describe the population curves. There are strong similarities between the simulations (Figs. 1-3E) and the real population dynamics if minor adjustments of the empirically determined parameters are made. There-fore it is suggested that time lags are responsible for the observed oscillations. However, the actual time lags probably do not act in the simple manner of the model, because birth and death rates react with different time lags, and both parameters are dependent on individual age and population density. A more complex model, which incorporates these modifications, should lead to a more realistic description of the observed oscillations.

Developing population models with data from marked individuals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hae Yeong Ryu,; Kevin T. Shoemaker,; Eva Kneip,; Anna Pidgeon,; Patricia Heglund,; Brooke Bateman,; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Reşit Akçakaya,

2016-01-01

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful tool for biodiversity assessments, but its use has been limited because of the requirements for fully specified population models such as demographic structure, density-dependence, environmental stochasticity, and specification of uncertainties. Developing a fully specified population model from commonly available data sources – notably, mark–recapture studies – remains complicated due to lack of practical methods for estimating fecundity, true survival (as opposed to apparent survival), natural temporal variability in both survival and fecundity, density-dependence in the demographic parameters, and uncertainty in model parameters. We present a general method that estimates all the key parameters required to specify a stochastic, matrix-based population model, constructed using a long-term mark–recapture dataset. Unlike standard mark–recapture analyses, our approach provides estimates of true survival rates and fecundities, their respective natural temporal variabilities, and density-dependence functions, making it possible to construct a population model for long-term projection of population dynamics. Furthermore, our method includes a formal quantification of parameter uncertainty for global (multivariate) sensitivity analysis. We apply this approach to 9 bird species and demonstrate the feasibility of using data from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. Bias-correction factors for raw estimates of survival and fecundity derived from mark–recapture data (apparent survival and juvenile:adult ratio, respectively) were non-negligible, and corrected parameters were generally more biologically reasonable than their uncorrected counterparts. Our method allows the development of fully specified stochastic population models using a single, widely available data source, substantially reducing the barriers that have until now limited the widespread application of PVA. This method is expected to greatly enhance our understanding of the processes underlying population dynamics and our ability to analyze viability and project trends for species of conservation concern.

Metapopulation Structure and Dynamics of an Endangered Butterfly

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

the yearly variation of between-generation population change. We utilized weather data from the closest accessible NOAA weather station (43◦56′N/90◦49...patterns in the population dynamic, and tested for density-dependent growth and weather factors as potential explanatory factors of the yearly variation...followed a standard protocol including avoiding inclement weather con- ditions (Wilder 1999) and about 95% of the survey data were collected by a single

Deer density and disease prevalence influence transmission of Chronic Wasting Disease in White-tailed Deer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Samuel, Michael D.; Richards, Bryan J.; Storm, Daniel J.; Rolley, Robert E.; Shelton, Paul; Nicholas S. Keuler,; Timothy R. Van Deelen,

2013-01-01

Host-parasite dynamics and strategies for managing infectious diseases of wildlife depend on the functional relationship between disease transmission rates and host density. However, the disease transmission function is rarely known for free-living wildlife, leading to uncertainty regarding the impacts of diseases on host populations and effective control actions. We evaluated the influence of deer density, landscape features, and soil clay content on transmission of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in young (<2-year-old) white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in south-central Wisconsin, USA. We evaluated how frequency-dependent, density-dependent, and intermediate transmission models predicted CWD incidence rates in harvested yearling deer. An intermediate transmission model, incorporating both disease prevalence and density of infected deer, performed better than simple density- and frequency-dependent models. Our results indicate a combination of social structure, non-linear relationships between infectious contact and deer density, and distribution of disease among groups are important factors driving CWD infection in young deer. The landscape covariates % deciduous forest cover and forest edge density also were positively associated with infection rates, but soil clay content had no measurable influences on CWD transmission. Lack of strong density-dependent transmission rates indicates that controlling CWD by reducing deer density will be difficult. The consequences of non-linear disease transmission and aggregation of disease on cervid populations deserves further consideration.

Seed-predator satiation and Janzen-Connell effects vary with spatial scales for seed-feeding insects.

PubMed

Xiao, Zhishu; Mi, Xiangcheng; Holyoak, Marcel; Xie, Wenhua; Cao, Ke; Yang, Xifu; Huang, Xiaoqun; Krebs, Charles J

2017-01-01

The Janzen-Connell model predicts that common species suffer high seed predation from specialized natural enemies as a function of distance from parent trees, and consequently as a function of conspecific density, whereas the predator satiation hypothesis predicts that seed attack is reduced due to predator satiation at high seed densities. Pre-dispersal predation by insects was studied while seeds are still on parent trees, which represents a frequently overlooked stage in which seed predation occurs. Reproductive tree density and seed production were investigated from ten Quercus serrata populations located in south-west China, quantifying density-dependent pre-dispersal seed predation over two years by three insect groups. Acorn infestation was nearly twice as high in the low-seed year as that in the high-seed year, with considerable spatio-temporal variation in the direction and magnitude of density-dependent pre-dispersal seed predation evident. Across whole populations of trees, a high density of reproductive trees caused predator satiation and reduced insect attack in the high-seed year. Within individual trees, and consistent with the Janzen-Connell model, overall insect seed predation was positively correlated with seed production in the low-seed year. In addition, there was variation among insect taxa, with positive density-dependent seed predation by Curculio weevils in the high-seed year and moths in the low-seed year, but apparent density independence by Cyllorhynchites weevils in both years. The overall trend of negative density-dependent, pre-dispersal seed predation suggests that predator satiation limited the occurrence of Janzen-Connell effects across Q. serrata populations. Such effects may have large impacts on plant population dynamics and tree diversity, depending on the extent to which they are reduced by counteracting positive density-dependent predation for seeds on individual trees and other factors affecting successful recruitment. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise.

PubMed

Hatfield, Jeff S; Reynolds, Michelle H; Seavy, Nathaniel E; Krause, Crystal M

2012-08-01

Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds. Conservation Biology ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original US government works.

Individual differences, density dependence and offspring birth traits in a population of red deer

PubMed Central

Stopher, Katie V; Pemberton, Josephine M; Clutton-Brock, Tim H; Coulson, Tim

2008-01-01

Variation between individuals is an essential component of natural selection and evolutionary change, but it is only recently that the consequences of persistent differences between individuals on population dynamics have been considered. In particular, few authors have addressed whether interactions exist between individual quality and environmental variation. In part, this is due to the difficulties of collecting sufficient data, but also the challenge of defining individual quality. Using a long-established study population of red deer, Cervus elaphus, inhabiting the North Block of the Isle of Rum, and three quality measures, this paper investigates how differences in maternal quality affect variation in birth body mass and date, as population density varies, and how this differs depending on the sex of the offspring and the maternal quality measure used. Significant interactions between maternal quality, measured as a hind's total contribution to population growth, and population density are reported for birth mass, but only for male calves. Analyses using dominance or age at primiparity to define maternal quality showed no significant interactions with population density, highlighting the difficulties of defining a consistent measure of individual quality. PMID:18522909

The ecogenetic link between demography and evolution: can we bridge the gap between theory and data?

PubMed

Kokko, Hanna; López-Sepulcre, Andrés

2007-09-01

Calls to understand the links between ecology and evolution have been common for decades. Population dynamics, i.e. the demographic changes in populations, arise from life history decisions of individuals and thus are a product of selection, and selection, on the contrary, can be modified by such dynamical properties of the population as density and stability. It follows that generating predictions and testing them correctly requires considering this ecogenetic feedback loop whenever traits have demographic consequences, mediated via density dependence (or frequency dependence). This is not an easy challenge, and arguably theory has advanced at a greater pace than empirical research. However, theory would benefit from more interaction between related fields, as is evident in the many near-synonymous names that the ecogenetic loop has attracted. We also list encouraging examples where empiricists have shown feasible ways of addressing the question, ranging from advanced data analysis to experiments and comparative analyses of phylogenetic data.

High-amplitude fluctuations and alternative dynamical states of midges in Lake Myvatn.

PubMed

Ives, Anthony R; Einarsson, Arni; Jansen, Vincent A A; Gardarsson, Arnthor

2008-03-06

Complex dynamics are often shown by simple ecological models and have been clearly demonstrated in laboratory and natural systems. Yet many classes of theoretically possible dynamics are still poorly documented in nature. Here we study long-term time-series data of a midge, Tanytarsus gracilentus (Diptera: Chironomidae), in Lake Myvatn, Iceland. The midge undergoes density fluctuations of almost six orders of magnitude. Rather than regular cycles, however, these fluctuations have irregular periods of 4-7 years, indicating complex dynamics. We fit three consumer-resource models capable of qualitatively distinct dynamics to the data. Of these, the best-fitting model shows alternative dynamical states in the absence of environmental variability; depending on the initial midge densities, the model shows either fluctuations around a fixed point or high-amplitude cycles. This explains the observed complex population dynamics: high-amplitude but irregular fluctuations occur because stochastic variability causes the dynamics to switch between domains of attraction to the alternative states. In the model, the amplitude of fluctuations depends strongly on minute resource subsidies into the midge habitat. These resource subsidies may be sensitive to human-caused changes in the hydrology of the lake, with human impacts such as dredging leading to higher-amplitude fluctuations. Tanytarsus gracilentus is a key component of the Myvatn ecosystem, representing two-thirds of the secondary productivity of the lake and providing vital food resources to fish and to breeding bird populations. Therefore the high-amplitude, irregular fluctuations in midge densities generated by alternative dynamical states dominate much of the ecology of the lake.

Strong contribution of immigration to local population regulation: evidence from a migratory passerine.

PubMed

Schaub, Michael; Jakober, Hans; Stauber, Wolfgang

2013-08-01

A mechanistic understanding of the dynamics of populations requires knowledge about the variation of the underlying demographic rates and about the reasons for their variability. In geographically open populations, immigration is often necessary to prevent declines, but little is known about whether immigration can contribute to its regulation. We studied the dynamics of a Red-backed Shrike population (Lanius collurio) over 36 years in Germany with a Bayesian integrated population model. We estimated mean and temporal variability of population sizes, productivity, apparent survival, and immigration. We assessed how strongly the demographic rates were correlated with population growth to understand the demographic reasons of population change and how strongly the demographic rates were correlated with population size to identify possible density-dependent mechanisms. The shrike population varied between 35 and 74 breeding pairs but did not show a significant trend in population size over time (growth rate 1.002 +/- 0.001 [mean +/- SD]). Apparent survival of females (juveniles 0.06 +/- 0.01; adults 0.37 +/- 0.03) was lower than that of males (juveniles 0.10 +/- 0.01; adults 0.44 +/- 0.02). Immigration rates were substantial and higher in females (0.56 +/- 0.02) than in males (0.43 +/- 0.02), and average productivity was 2.76 +/- 0.14. Without immigration, the Red-backed Shrike population would have declined strongly. Immigration was the strongest driver for the number of females while local recruitment was the most important driver for the number of males. Immigration of both sexes and productivity, but not local recruitment and survival, were subject to density dependence. Density-dependent productivity was not effectively regulating the local population but may have contributed to regulate shrike populations at larger spatial scales. These findings suggest that immigration is not only an important component to prevent a geographically open population from decline, but that it can also contribute to its regulation.

How electronic dynamics with Pauli exclusion produces Fermi-Dirac statistics.

PubMed

Nguyen, Triet S; Nanguneri, Ravindra; Parkhill, John

2015-04-07

It is important that any dynamics method approaches the correct population distribution at long times. In this paper, we derive a one-body reduced density matrix dynamics for electrons in energetic contact with a bath. We obtain a remarkable equation of motion which shows that in order to reach equilibrium properly, rates of electron transitions depend on the density matrix. Even though the bath drives the electrons towards a Boltzmann distribution, hole blocking factors in our equation of motion cause the electronic populations to relax to a Fermi-Dirac distribution. These factors are an old concept, but we show how they can be derived with a combination of time-dependent perturbation theory and the extended normal ordering of Mukherjee and Kutzelnigg for a general electronic state. The resulting non-equilibrium kinetic equations generalize the usual Redfield theory to many-electron systems, while ensuring that the orbital occupations remain between zero and one. In numerical applications of our equations, we show that relaxation rates of molecules are not constant because of the blocking effect. Other applications to model atomic chains are also presented which highlight the importance of treating both dephasing and relaxation. Finally, we show how the bath localizes the electron density matrix.

On an aggregation in birth-and-death stochastic dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finkelshtein, Dmitri; Kondratiev, Yuri; Kutoviy, Oleksandr; Zhizhina, Elena

2014-06-01

We consider birth-and-death stochastic dynamics of particle systems with attractive interaction. The heuristic generator of the dynamics has a constant birth rate and density-dependent decreasing death rate. The corresponding statistical dynamics is constructed. Using the Vlasov-type scaling we derive the limiting mesoscopic evolution and prove that this evolution propagates chaos. We study a nonlinear non-local kinetic equation for the first correlation function (density of population). The existence of uniformly bounded solutions as well as solutions growing inside of a bounded domain and expanding in the space are shown. These solutions describe two regimes in the mesoscopic system: regulation and aggregation.

Density regulation in Northeast Atlantic fish populations: Density dependence is stronger in recruitment than in somatic growth.

PubMed

Zimmermann, Fabian; Ricard, Daniel; Heino, Mikko

2018-05-01

Population regulation is a central concept in ecology, yet in many cases its presence and the underlying mechanisms are difficult to demonstrate. The current paradigm maintains that marine fish populations are predominantly regulated by density-dependent recruitment. While it is known that density-dependent somatic growth can be present too, its general importance remains unknown and most practical applications neglect it. This study aimed to close this gap by for the first time quantifying and comparing density dependence in growth and recruitment over a large set of fish populations. We fitted density-dependent models to time-series data on population size, recruitment and age-specific weight from commercially exploited fish populations in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and the Baltic Sea. Data were standardized to enable a direct comparison within and among populations, and estimated parameters were used to quantify the impact of density regulation on population biomass. Statistically significant density dependence in recruitment was detected in a large proportion of populations (70%), whereas for density dependence in somatic growth the prevalence of density dependence depended heavily on the method (26% and 69%). Despite age-dependent variability, the density dependence in recruitment was consistently stronger among age groups and between alternative approaches that use weight-at-age or weight increments to assess growth. Estimates of density-dependent reduction in biomass underlined these results: 97% of populations with statistically significant parameters for growth and recruitment showed a larger impact of density-dependent recruitment on population biomass. The results reaffirm the importance of density-dependent recruitment in marine fishes, yet they also show that density dependence in somatic growth is not uncommon. Furthermore, the results are important from an applied perspective because density dependence in somatic growth affects productivity and catch composition, and therefore the benefits of maintaining fish populations at specific densities. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Modeling ecological traps for the control of feral pigs

PubMed Central

Dexter, Nick; McLeod, Steven R

2015-01-01

Ecological traps are habitat sinks that are preferred by dispersing animals but have higher mortality or reduced fecundity compared to source habitats. Theory suggests that if mortality rates are sufficiently high, then ecological traps can result in extinction. An ecological trap may be created when pest animals are controlled in one area, but not in another area of equal habitat quality, and when there is density-dependent immigration from the high-density uncontrolled area to the low-density controlled area. We used a logistic population model to explore how varying the proportion of habitat controlled, control mortality rate, and strength of density-dependent immigration for feral pigs could affect the long-term population abundance and time to extinction. Increasing control mortality, the proportion of habitat controlled and the strength of density-dependent immigration decreased abundance both within and outside the area controlled. At higher levels of these parameters, extinction was achieved for feral pigs. We extended the analysis with a more complex stochastic, interactive model of feral pig dynamics in the Australian rangelands to examine how the same variables as the logistic model affected long-term abundance in the controlled and uncontrolled area and time to extinction. Compared to the logistic model of feral pig dynamics, the stochastic interactive model predicted lower abundances and extinction at lower control mortalities and proportions of habitat controlled. To improve the realism of the stochastic interactive model, we substituted fixed mortality rates with a density-dependent control mortality function, empirically derived from helicopter shooting exercises in Australia. Compared to the stochastic interactive model with fixed mortality rates, the model with the density-dependent control mortality function did not predict as substantial decline in abundance in controlled or uncontrolled areas or extinction for any combination of variables. These models demonstrate that pest eradication is theoretically possible without the pest being controlled throughout its range because of density-dependent immigration into the area controlled. The stronger the density-dependent immigration, the better the overall control in controlled and uncontrolled habitat combined. However, the stronger the density-dependent immigration, the poorer the control in the area controlled. For feral pigs, incorporating environmental stochasticity improves the prospects for eradication, but adding a realistic density-dependent control function eliminates these prospects. PMID:26045954

Modeling seasonal behavior changes and disease transmission with application to chronic wasting disease.

PubMed

Oraby, Tamer; Vasilyeva, Olga; Krewski, Daniel; Lutscher, Frithjof

2014-01-07

Behavior and habitat of wildlife animals change seasonally according to environmental conditions. Mathematical models need to represent this seasonality to be able to make realistic predictions about the future of a population and the effectiveness of human interventions. Managing and modeling disease in wild animal populations requires particular care in that disease transmission dynamics is a critical consideration in the etiology of both human and animal diseases, with different transmission paradigms requiring different disease risk management strategies. Since transmission of infectious diseases among wildlife depends strongly on social behavior, mechanisms of disease transmission could also change seasonally. A specific consideration in this regard confronted by modellers is whether the contact rate between individuals is density-dependent or frequency-dependent. We argue that seasonal behavior changes could lead to a seasonal shift between density and frequency dependence. This hypothesis is explored in the case of chronic wasting disease (CWD), a fatal disease that affects deer, elk and moose in many areas of North America. Specifically, we introduce a strategic CWD risk model based on direct disease transmission that accounts for the seasonal change in the transmission dynamics and habitats occupied, guided by information derived from cervid ecology. The model is composed of summer and winter susceptible-infected (SI) equations, with frequency-dependent and density-dependent transmission dynamics, respectively. The model includes impulsive birth events with density-dependent birth rate. We determine the basic reproduction number as a weighted average of two seasonal reproduction numbers. We parameterize the model from data derived from the scientific literature on CWD and deer ecology, and conduct global and local sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number. We explore the effectiveness of different culling strategies for the management of CWD: although summer culling seems to be an effective disease eradication strategy, the total culling rate is limited by the requirement to preserve the herd. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evidence for r- and K-selection in a wild bird population: a reciprocal link between ecology and evolution.

PubMed

Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Visser, Marcel E; Grøtan, Vidar; Engen, Steinar

2016-04-27

Understanding the variation in selection pressure on key life-history traits is crucial in our rapidly changing world. Density is rarely considered as a selective agent. To study its importance, we partition phenotypic selection in fluctuating environments into components representing the population growth rate at low densities and the strength of density dependence, using a new stochastic modelling framework. We analysed the number of eggs laid per season in a small song-bird, the great tit, and found balancing selection favouring large clutch sizes at small population densities and smaller clutches in years with large populations. A significant interaction between clutch size and population size in the regression for the Malthusian fitness reveals that those females producing large clutch sizes at small population sizes also are those that show the strongest reduction in fitness when population size is increased. This provides empirical support for ongoing r- and K-selection in this population, favouring phenotypes with large growth rates r at small population sizes and phenotypes with high competitive skills when populations are close to the carrying capacity K This selection causes long-term fluctuations around a stable mean clutch size caused by variation in population size, implying that r- and K-selection is an important mechanism influencing phenotypic evolution in fluctuating environments. This provides a general link between ecological dynamics and evolutionary processes, operating through a joint influence of density dependence and environmental stochasticity on fluctuations in population size. © 2016 The Author(s).

Profound Effects of Population Density on Fitness-Related Traits in an Invasive Freshwater Snail

PubMed Central

Zachar, Nicholas; Neiman, Maurine

2013-01-01

Population density can profoundly influence fitness-related traits and population dynamics, and density dependence plays a key role in many prominent ecological and evolutionary hypotheses. Here, we evaluated how individual-level changes in population density affect growth rate and embryo production early in reproductive maturity in two different asexual lineages of Potamopyrgus antipodarum, a New Zealand freshwater snail that is an important model system for ecotoxicology and the evolution of sexual reproduction as well as a potentially destructive worldwide invader. We showed that population density had a major influence on individual growth rate and early-maturity embryo production, effects that were often apparent even when comparing treatments that differed in population density by only one individual. While individual growth rate generally decreased as population density increased, we detected a hump-shaped relationship between embryo production and density, with females from intermediate-density treatments producing the most embryos and females from low- and high-density treatments producing the fewest embryos. The two lineages responded similarly to the treatments, indicating that these effects of population density might apply more broadly across P. antipodarum. These results indicate that there are profound and complex relationships between population density, growth rate, and early-maturity embryo production in at least two lineages of this important model system, with potential implications for the study of invasive populations, research on the maintenance of sex, and approaches used in ecotoxicology. PMID:24278240

Profound effects of population density on fitness-related traits in an invasive freshwater snail.

PubMed

Zachar, Nicholas; Neiman, Maurine

2013-01-01

Population density can profoundly influence fitness-related traits and population dynamics, and density dependence plays a key role in many prominent ecological and evolutionary hypotheses. Here, we evaluated how individual-level changes in population density affect growth rate and embryo production early in reproductive maturity in two different asexual lineages of Potamopyrgus antipodarum, a New Zealand freshwater snail that is an important model system for ecotoxicology and the evolution of sexual reproduction as well as a potentially destructive worldwide invader. We showed that population density had a major influence on individual growth rate and early-maturity embryo production, effects that were often apparent even when comparing treatments that differed in population density by only one individual. While individual growth rate generally decreased as population density increased, we detected a hump-shaped relationship between embryo production and density, with females from intermediate-density treatments producing the most embryos and females from low- and high-density treatments producing the fewest embryos. The two lineages responded similarly to the treatments, indicating that these effects of population density might apply more broadly across P. antipodarum. These results indicate that there are profound and complex relationships between population density, growth rate, and early-maturity embryo production in at least two lineages of this important model system, with potential implications for the study of invasive populations, research on the maintenance of sex, and approaches used in ecotoxicology.

Population response to climate change: linear vs. non-linear modeling approaches.

PubMed

Ellis, Alicia M; Post, Eric

2004-03-31

Research on the ecological consequences of global climate change has elicited a growing interest in the use of time series analysis to investigate population dynamics in a changing climate. Here, we compare linear and non-linear models describing the contribution of climate to the density fluctuations of the population of wolves on Isle Royale, Michigan from 1959 to 1999. The non-linear self excitatory threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model revealed that, due to differences in the strength and nature of density dependence, relatively small and large populations may be differentially affected by future changes in climate. Both linear and non-linear models predict a decrease in the population of wolves with predicted changes in climate. Because specific predictions differed between linear and non-linear models, our study highlights the importance of using non-linear methods that allow the detection of non-linearity in the strength and nature of density dependence. Failure to adopt a non-linear approach to modelling population response to climate change, either exclusively or in addition to linear approaches, may compromise efforts to quantify ecological consequences of future warming.

Modelling the dynamics of feral alfalfa populations and its management implications.

PubMed

Bagavathiannan, Muthukumar V; Begg, Graham S; Gulden, Robert H; Van Acker, Rene C

2012-01-01

Feral populations of cultivated crops can pose challenges to novel trait confinement within agricultural landscapes. Simulation models can be helpful in investigating the underlying dynamics of feral populations and determining suitable management options. We developed a stage-structured matrix population model for roadside feral alfalfa populations occurring in southern Manitoba, Canada. The model accounted for the existence of density-dependence and recruitment subsidy in feral populations. We used the model to investigate the long-term dynamics of feral alfalfa populations, and to evaluate the effectiveness of simulated management strategies such as herbicide application and mowing in controlling feral alfalfa. Results suggest that alfalfa populations occurring in roadside habitats can be persistent and less likely to go extinct under current roadverge management scenarios. Management attempts focused on controlling adult plants alone can be counterproductive due to the presence of density-dependent effects. Targeted herbicide application, which can achieve complete control of seedlings, rosettes and established plants, will be an effective strategy, but the seedbank population may contribute to new recruits. In regions where roadside mowing is regularly practiced, devising a timely mowing strategy (early- to mid-August for southern Manitoba), one that can totally prevent seed production, will be a feasible option for managing feral alfalfa populations. Feral alfalfa populations can be persistent in roadside habitats. Timely mowing or regular targeted herbicide application will be effective in managing feral alfalfa populations and limit feral-population-mediated gene flow in alfalfa. However, in the context of novel trait confinement, the extent to which feral alfalfa populations need to be managed will be dictated by the tolerance levels established by specific production systems for specific traits. The modelling framework outlined in this paper could be applied to other perennial herbaceous plants with similar life-history characteristics.

Dynamical behaviour of a discrete selection-migration model with arbitrary dominance

Treesearch

James F. Selgrade; Jordan West Bostic; James H. Roberds

2009-01-01

To study the effects of immigration of genes (possibly transgenic) into a natural population, a one-island selection-migration model with density-dependent regulation is used to track allele frequency and population size. The existence and uniqueness of a polymorphic genetic equilibrium is proved under a general assumption about dominance in fitnesses. Also, conditions...

Accommodating environmental variation in population models: metaphysiological biomass loss accounting.

PubMed

Owen-Smith, Norman

2011-07-01

1. There is a pressing need for population models that can reliably predict responses to changing environmental conditions and diagnose the causes of variation in abundance in space as well as through time. In this 'how to' article, it is outlined how standard population models can be modified to accommodate environmental variation in a heuristically conducive way. This approach is based on metaphysiological modelling concepts linking populations within food web contexts and underlying behaviour governing resource selection. Using population biomass as the currency, population changes can be considered at fine temporal scales taking into account seasonal variation. Density feedbacks are generated through the seasonal depression of resources even in the absence of interference competition. 2. Examples described include (i) metaphysiological modifications of Lotka-Volterra equations for coupled consumer-resource dynamics, accommodating seasonal variation in resource quality as well as availability, resource-dependent mortality and additive predation, (ii) spatial variation in habitat suitability evident from the population abundance attained, taking into account resource heterogeneity and consumer choice using empirical data, (iii) accommodating population structure through the variable sensitivity of life-history stages to resource deficiencies, affecting susceptibility to oscillatory dynamics and (iv) expansion of density-dependent equations to accommodate various biomass losses reducing population growth rate below its potential, including reductions in reproductive outputs. Supporting computational code and parameter values are provided. 3. The essential features of metaphysiological population models include (i) the biomass currency enabling within-year dynamics to be represented appropriately, (ii) distinguishing various processes reducing population growth below its potential, (iii) structural consistency in the representation of interacting populations and (iv) capacity to accommodate environmental variation in space as well as through time. Biomass dynamics provide a common currency linking behavioural, population and food web ecology. 4. Metaphysiological biomass loss accounting provides a conceptual framework more conducive for projecting and interpreting the population consequences of climatic shifts and human transformations of habitats than standard modelling approaches. © 2011 The Author. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Population dynamics of brown trout (Salmo trutta) in Spruce Creek Pennsylvania: A quarter-century perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grossman, Gary D.; Carline, Robert F.; Wagner, Tyler

2017-01-01

We examined the relationship between density-independent and density-dependent factors on the demography of a dense, relatively unexploited population of brown trout in Spruce Creek Pennsylvania between 1985 and 2011.Individual PCAs of flow and temperature data elucidated groups of years with multiple high flow versus multiple low flow characteristics and high versus low temperature years, although subtler patterns of variation also were observed.Density and biomass displayed similar temporal patterns, ranging from 710 to 1,803 trout/ha and 76–263 kg/ha. We detected a significantly negative linear stock-recruitment relationship (R2 = .39) and there was no evidence that flow or water temperature affected recruitment.Both annual survival and the per-capita rate of increase (r) for the population varied over the study, and density-dependent mechanisms possessed the greatest explanatory power for annual survival data. Temporal trends in population r suggested it displayed a bounded equilibrium with increases observed in 12 years and decreases detected in 13 years.Model selection analysis of per-capita rate of increase data for age 1, and adults (N = eight interpretable models) indicated that both density-dependent (five of eight) and negative density-independent processes (five of eight, i.e. high flows or temperatures), affected r. Recruitment limitation also was identified in three of eight models. Variation in the per-capita rate of increase for the population was most strongly affected by positive density independence in the form of increasing spring–summer temperatures and recruitment limitation.Model selection analyses describing annual variation in both mean length and mass data yielded similar results, although maximum wi values were low ranging from 0.09 to 0.23 (length) and 0.13 to 0.22 (mass). Density-dependence was included in 15 of 15 interpretable models for length and all ten interpretable models for mass. Similarly, positive density-independent effects in the form of increasing autumn–winter flow were present in seven of 15 interpretable models for length and five of ten interpretable models for mass. Negative density independent effects also were observed in the form of high spring–summer flows or temperatures (N = 4), or high autumn–winter temperatures (N = 1).Our analyses of the factors affecting population regulation in an introduced population of brown trout demonstrate that density-dependent forces affected every important demographic characteristic (recruitment, survivorship, the rate of increase, and size) within this population. However, density-independent forces in the form of seasonal variations in flow and temperature also helped explain annual variation in the per-capita rate of increase, and mean length and mass data. Consequently, population regulation within this population is driven by a complex of biotic and environmental factors, although it seems clear that density-dependent factors play a dominant role.

Social Information Links Individual Behavior to Population and Community Dynamics.

PubMed

Gil, Michael A; Hein, Andrew M; Spiegel, Orr; Baskett, Marissa L; Sih, Andrew

2018-05-07

When individual animals make decisions, they routinely use information produced intentionally or unintentionally by other individuals. Despite its prevalence and established fitness consequences, the effects of such social information on ecological dynamics remain poorly understood. Here, we synthesize results from ecology, evolutionary biology, and animal behavior to show how the use of social information can profoundly influence the dynamics of populations and communities. We combine recent theoretical and empirical results and introduce simple population models to illustrate how social information use can drive positive density-dependent growth of populations and communities (Allee effects). Furthermore, social information can shift the nature and strength of species interactions, change the outcome of competition, and potentially increase extinction risk in harvested populations and communities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fish community changes in the St. Louis River estuary, Lake Superior, 1989-1996: Is it ruffe or population dynamics?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bronte, Charles R.; Evrard, Lori M.; Brown, William P.; Mayo, Kathleen R.; Edwards, Andrew J.

1998-01-01

Ruffe (Gymnocephalus cernuus) have been implicated in density declines of native species through egg predation and competition for food in some European waters where they were introduced. Density estimates for ruffe and principal native fishes in the St. Louis River estuary (western Lake Superior) were developed for 1989 to 1996 to measure changes in the fish community in response to an unintentional introduction of ruffe. During the study, ruffe density increased and the densities of several native species decreased. The reductions of native stocks to the natural population dynamics of the same species from Chequamegon Bay, Lake Superior (an area with very few ruffe) were developed, where there was a 24-year record of density. Using these data, short- and long-term variations in catch and correlations among species within years were compared, and species-specific distributions were developed of observed trends in abundance of native fishes in Chequamegon Bay indexed by the slopes of densities across years. From these distributions and our observed trend-line slopes from the St. Louis River, probabilities of measuring negative change at the magnitude observed in the St. Louis River were estimated. Compared with trends in Chequamegon Bay, there was a high probability of obtaining the negative slopes measured for most species, which suggests natural population dynamics could explain, the declines rather than interactions with ruffe. Variable recruitment, which was not related to ruffe density, and associated density-dependent changes in mortality likely were responsible for density declines of native species.

Modeling the Response of Anopheles gambiae (Diptera: Culicidae) Populations in the Kenya Highlands to a Rise in Mean Annual Temperature.

PubMed

Wallace, Dorothy; Prosper, Olivia; Savos, Jacob; Dunham, Ann M; Chipman, Jonathan W; Shi, Xun; Ndenga, Bryson; Githeko, Andrew

2017-03-01

A dynamical model of Anopheles gambiae larval and adult populations is constructed that matches temperature-dependent maturation times and mortality measured experimentally as well as larval instar and adult mosquito emergence data from field studies in the Kenya Highlands. Spectral classification of high-resolution satellite imagery is used to estimate household density. Indoor resting densities collected over a period of one year combined with predictions of the dynamical model give estimates of both aquatic habitat and total adult mosquito densities. Temperature and precipitation patterns are derived from monthly records. Precipitation patterns are compared with average and extreme habitat estimates to estimate available aquatic habitat in an annual cycle. These estimates are coupled with the original model to produce estimates of adult and larval populations dependent on changing aquatic carrying capacity for larvae and changing maturation and mortality dependent on temperature. This paper offers a general method for estimating the total area of aquatic habitat in a given region, based on larval counts, emergence rates, indoor resting density data, and number of households.Altering the average daily temperature and the average daily rainfall simulates the effect of climate change on annual cycles of prevalence of An. gambiae adults. We show that small increases in average annual temperature have a large impact on adult mosquito density, whether measured at model equilibrium values for a single square meter of habitat or tracked over the course of a year of varying habitat availability and temperature. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Predicting fluctuations-caused regime shifts in a time delayed dynamics of an invading species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Qingshuang; Wang, Tonghuan; Zeng, Chunhua; Dong, Xiaohui; Guan, Lin

2018-03-01

In this paper, we investigate early warning signals (EWS) of regime shifts in a density-dependent invading population model with time delay, in which the population density is assumed to be disturbed by intrinsic and extrinsic fluctuations. It is shown that the time delay and noises can cause the regime shifts between low and high population density states. The regime shift time (RST) as a function of noise intensity exhibits a maximum, which identifies the signature of the noise-enhanced stability of the low density state, while the time delay weakens the stability of the low density state. Applying the Kramers time technique, we also discuss the intersection point of the RST between low and high population density states, i.e., a critical point in the RST is found. Therefore, the critical point may give an EWS of regime shifts from one alternative state to another one for the changes in the noise parameters and time delay.

Critical thresholds in sea lice epidemics: evidence, sensitivity and subcritical estimation

PubMed Central

Frazer, L. Neil; Morton, Alexandra; Krkošek, Martin

2012-01-01

Host density thresholds are a fundamental component of the population dynamics of pathogens, but empirical evidence and estimates are lacking. We studied host density thresholds in the dynamics of ectoparasitic sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) on salmon farms. Empirical examples include a 1994 epidemic in Atlantic Canada and a 2001 epidemic in Pacific Canada. A mathematical model suggests dynamics of lice are governed by a stable endemic equilibrium until the critical host density threshold drops owing to environmental change, or is exceeded by stocking, causing epidemics that require rapid harvest or treatment. Sensitivity analysis of the critical threshold suggests variation in dependence on biotic parameters and high sensitivity to temperature and salinity. We provide a method for estimating the critical threshold from parasite abundances at subcritical host densities and estimate the critical threshold and transmission coefficient for the two epidemics. Host density thresholds may be a fundamental component of disease dynamics in coastal seas where salmon farming occurs. PMID:22217721

Intercohort density dependence drives brown trout habitat selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayllón, Daniel; Nicola, Graciela G.; Parra, Irene; Elvira, Benigno; Almodóvar, Ana

2013-01-01

Habitat selection can be viewed as an emergent property of the quality and availability of habitat but also of the number of individuals and the way they compete for its use. Consequently, habitat selection can change across years due to fluctuating resources or to changes in population numbers. However, habitat selection predictive models often do not account for ecological dynamics, especially density dependent processes. In stage-structured population, the strength of density dependent interactions between individuals of different age classes can exert a profound influence on population trajectories and evolutionary processes. In this study, we aimed to assess the effects of fluctuating densities of both older and younger competing life stages on the habitat selection patterns (described as univariate and multivariate resource selection functions) of young-of-the-year, juvenile and adult brown trout Salmo trutta. We observed all age classes were selective in habitat choice but changed their selection patterns across years consistently with variations in the densities of older but not of younger age classes. Trout of an age increased selectivity for positions highly selected by older individuals when their density decreased, but this pattern did not hold when the density of younger age classes varied. It suggests that younger individuals are dominated by older ones but can expand their range of selected habitats when density of competitors decreases, while older trout do not seem to consider the density of younger individuals when distributing themselves even though they can negatively affect their final performance. Since these results may entail critical implications for conservation and management practices based on habitat selection models, further research should involve a wider range of river typologies and/or longer time frames to fully understand the patterns of and the mechanisms underlying the operation of density dependence on brown trout habitat selection.

The effects of host-feeding on stability of discrete-time host-parasitoid population dynamic models.

PubMed

Emerick, Brooks; Singh, Abhyudai

2016-02-01

Discrete-time models are the traditional approach for capturing population dynamics of a host-parasitoid system. Recent work has introduced a semi-discrete framework for obtaining model update functions that connect host-parasitoid population levels from year-to-year. In particular, this framework uses differential equations to describe the host-parasitoid interaction during the time of year when they come in contact, allowing specific behaviors to be mechanistically incorporated. We use the semi-discrete approach to study the effects of host-feeding, which occurs when a parasitoid consumes a potential host larva without ovipositing. We find that host-feeding by itself cannot stabilize the system, and both populations exhibit behavior similar to the Nicholson-Bailey model. However, when combined with stabilizing mechanisms such as density-dependent host mortality, host-feeding contracts the region of parameter space that allows for a stable host-parasitoid equilibrium. In contrast, when combined with a density-dependent parasitoid attack rate, host-feeding expands the non-zero equilibrium stability region. Our results show that host-feeding causes inefficiency in the parasitoid population, which yields a higher population of hosts per generation. This suggests that host-feeding may have limited long-term impact in terms of suppressing host levels for biological control applications. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Application of the stage-projection model with density-dependent fecundity to the population dynamics of Spanish ibex

USGS Publications Warehouse

Escos, J.; Alados, C.L.; Emlen, John M.

1994-01-01

A stage-class population model with density-feedback term included was used to identify the most critical parameters determining the population dynamics of female Spanish ibex (Capra pyrenaica) in southern Spain. A population in the Cazorla and Segura mountains is rapidly declining, but the eastern Sierra Nevada population is growing. The stable population density obtained using estimated values of kid and adult survival (0.49 and 0.87, respectively) and with fecundity equal to 0.367 in the absence of density feedback is 12.7 or 16.82 individuals/km2, based on a non-time-lagged and a time-lagged model, respectively. Given the maximum estimate of fecundity and an adult survival rate of 0.87, a kid survival rate of at least 0.41 is required to avoid extinction. At the minimum fecundity estimate, kid survival would have to exceed 0.52. Elasticities were used to estimate the influence of variation in life-cycle parameters on the intrinsic rate of increase. Adult survival is the most critical parameter, while fecundity and juvenile survival are less important. An increase in adult survival from 0.87 to 0.91 in the Cazorla and Segura mountains population would almost stabilize the population in the absence of stochastic variation, while the same increase in the Sierra Nevada population would yield population growth of 4–5% per annum. A reduction in adult survival to 0.83 results in population decline in both cases.

Non-integrable dynamics of matter-wave solitons in a density-dependent gauge theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dingwall, R. J.; Edmonds, M. J.; Helm, J. L.; Malomed, B. A.; Öhberg, P.

2018-04-01

We study interactions between bright matter-wave solitons which acquire chiral transport dynamics due to an optically-induced density-dependent gauge potential. Through numerical simulations, we find that the collision dynamics feature several non-integrable phenomena, from inelastic collisions including population transfer and radiation losses to the formation of short-lived bound states and soliton fission. An effective quasi-particle model for the interaction between the solitons is derived by means of a variational approximation, which demonstrates that the inelastic nature of the collision arises from a coupling of the gauge field to velocities of the solitons. In addition, we derive a set of interaction potentials which show that the influence of the gauge field appears as a short-range potential, that can give rise to both attractive and repulsive interactions.

Density-Dependent Recruitment and Diapause in the Spring-Feeding Generation of Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (Hemiptera: Adelgidae) in Western North America.

PubMed

Weed, Aaron S; Elkinton, Joseph S; Lany, Nina K

2016-12-01

Insect populations are affected by density-dependent and density-independent factors, and knowing how these factors affect long-term population growth is critical to pest management. In this study, we experimentally manipulated densities of the hemlock woolly adelgid on eastern and western hemlock trees in the western USA to evaluate the effects of density and host species on hemlock woolly adelgid crawler colonization. We then followed development of hemlock woolly adelgid on each hemlock species. Settlement of crawlers was strongly density-dependent and consistent between host species. In addition, a period of hot days that coincided with the settlement of hemlock woolly adelgid crawlers put our experimental and naturally occurring populations into diapause during April. Diapause resulted in one generation that yr in our experimental population. Analyses of long-term air temperature records indicated that diapause-inducing temperatures in April similar to those observed in our experiment have occurred rarely since 1909 and the frequency of these events has not changed over time. Prior work suggests that hemlock woolly adelgid completes two generations per yr in the western USA with a diapause occurring in the summer. This typical life history reflects the long-term influence of regional average seasonal temperature patterns on development and the timing of diapause-inducing temperatures. However, the timing of unseasonal weather, such as the hot days observed in our experiment, occasionally changes life history trajectories from this normal pattern. Our results show that density-dependent and density-independent factors have strong effects on generational mortality and life history of hemlock woolly adelgid that are important to its population dynamics and management. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2016. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

Population density and climate shape early-life survival and recruitment in a long-lived pelagic seabird.

PubMed

Fay, Rémi; Weimerskirch, Henri; Delord, Karine; Barbraud, Christophe

2015-09-01

1. Our understanding of demographic processes is mainly based on analyses of traits from the adult component of populations. Early-life demographic traits are poorly known mainly for methodological reasons. Yet, survival of juvenile and immature individuals is critical for the recruitment into the population and thus for the whole population dynamic, especially for long-lived species. This bias currently restrains our ability to fully understand population dynamics of long-lived species and life-history theory. 2. The goal of this study was to estimate the early-life demographic parameters of a long-lived species with a long immature period (9-10 years), to test for sex and age effects on these parameters and to identify the environmental factors encountered during the period of immaturity that may influence survival and recruitment. 3. Using capture-mark-recapture multievent models allowing us to deal with uncertain and unobservable individual states, we analysed a long-term data set of wandering albatrosses to estimate both age- and sex-specific early-life survival and recruitment. We investigated environmental factors potentially driving these demographic traits using climatic and fisheries covariates and tested for density dependence. 4. Our study provides for the first time an estimate of annual survival during the first 2 years at sea for an albatross species (0·801 ± 0·014). Both age and sex affected early-life survival and recruitment processes of this long-lived seabird species. Early-life survival and recruitment were highly variable across years although the sensitivity of young birds to environmental variability decreased with age. Early-life survival was negatively associated with sea surface temperature, and recruitment rate was positively related to both Southern Annular Mode and sea surface temperature. We found strong evidence for density-dependent mortality of juveniles. Population size explained 41% of the variation of this parameter over the study period. 5. These results indicate that early-life survival and recruitment were strongly age and sex dependent in a dimorphic long-lived species. In addition, early-life demographic parameters were affected by natal environmental conditions and by environmental conditions faced during the period of immaturity. Finally, our results constitute one of the first demonstrations of density dependence on juvenile survival in seabirds, with major consequences for our understanding of population dynamics in seabirds. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Demography of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens): 1974-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taylor, Rebecca L.; Udevitz, Mark S.

2015-01-01

Global climate change may fundamentally alter population dynamics of many species for which baseline population parameter estimates are imprecise or lacking. Historically, the Pacific walrus is thought to have been limited by harvest, but it may become limited by global warming-induced reductions in sea ice. Loss of sea ice, on which walruses rest between foraging bouts, may reduce access to food, thus lowering vital rates. Rigorous walrus survival rate estimates do not exist, and other population parameter estimates are out of date or have well-documented bias and imprecision. To provide useful population parameter estimates we developed a Bayesian, hidden process demographic model of walrus population dynamics from 1974 through 2006 that combined annual age-specific harvest estimates with five population size estimates, six standing age structure estimates, and two reproductive rate estimates. Median density independent natural survival was high for juveniles (0.97) and adults (0.99), and annual density dependent vital rates rose from 0.06 to 0.11 for reproduction, 0.31 to 0.59 for survival of neonatal calves, and 0.39 to 0.85 for survival of older calves, concomitant with a population decline. This integrated population model provides a baseline for estimating changing population dynamics resulting from changing harvests or sea ice.

Genetic diversity affects the strength of population regulation in a marine fish.

PubMed

Johnson, D W; Freiwald, J; Bernardi, G

2016-03-01

Variation is an essential feature of biological populations, yet much of ecological theory treats individuals as though they are identical. This simplifying assumption is often justified by the perception that variation among individuals does not have significant effects on the dynamics of whole populations. However, this perception may be skewed by a historic focus on studying single populations. A true evaluation of the extent to which among-individual variation affects the dynamics of populations requires the study of multiple populations. In this study, we examined variation in the dynamics of populations of a live-bearing, marine fish (black surfperch; Embiotoca jacksoni). In collaboration with an organization of citizen scientists (Reef Check California), we were able to examine the dynamics of eight populations that were distributed throughout approximately 700 km of coastline, a distance that encompasses much of this species' range. We hypothesized that genetic variation within a local population would be related to the intensity of competition and to the strength of population regulation. To test this hypothesis, we examined whether genetic diversity (measured by the diversity of mitochondrial DNA haplotypes) was related to the strength of population regulation. Low-diversity populations experienced strong density dependence in population growth rates and population sizes were regulated much more tightly than they were in high-diversity populations. Mechanisms that contributed to this pattern include links between genetic diversity, habitat use, and spatial crowding. On average, low-diversity populations used less of the available habitat and exhibited greater spatial clustering (and more intense competition) for a given level of density (measured at the scale of the reef). Although the populations we studied also varied with respect to exogenous characteristics (habitat complexity, densities of predators, and interspecific competitors), none of these characteristics was significantly related to the strength of population regulation. In contrast, an endogenous characteristic of the population (genetic diversity) explained 77% of the variation in the strength of population regulation (95% CI: 27-94%). Our results suggest that the genetic and phenotypic composition of populations can play a major role in their dynamics.

A phase transition induces chaos in a predator-prey ecosystem with a dynamic fitness landscape.

PubMed

Gilpin, William; Feldman, Marcus W

2017-07-01

In many ecosystems, natural selection can occur quickly enough to influence the population dynamics and thus future selection. This suggests the importance of extending classical population dynamics models to include such eco-evolutionary processes. Here, we describe a predator-prey model in which the prey population growth depends on a prey density-dependent fitness landscape. We show that this two-species ecosystem is capable of exhibiting chaos even in the absence of external environmental variation or noise, and that the onset of chaotic dynamics is the result of the fitness landscape reversibly alternating between epochs of stabilizing and disruptive selection. We draw an analogy between the fitness function and the free energy in statistical mechanics, allowing us to use the physical theory of first-order phase transitions to understand the onset of rapid cycling in the chaotic predator-prey dynamics. We use quantitative techniques to study the relevance of our model to observational studies of complex ecosystems, finding that the evolution-driven chaotic dynamics confer community stability at the "edge of chaos" while creating a wide distribution of opportunities for speciation during epochs of disruptive selection-a potential observable signature of chaotic eco-evolutionary dynamics in experimental studies.

Interspecific and intraspecific competition as causes of direct and delayed density dependence in a fluctuating vole population

PubMed Central

Hansen, Thomas F.; Stenseth, Nils C.; Henttonen, Heikki; Tast, Johan

1999-01-01

A 3- to 5-year cycle of vole abundances is a characteristic phenomenon in the ecology of northern regions, and their explanation stands as a central theoretical challenge in population ecology. Although many species of voles usually coexist and are in severe competition for food and breeding space, the role of interspecific competition in vole cycles has never been evaluated statistically. After studying community effects on the population dynamics of the gray-sided vole (Clethrionomys rufocanus) in the subarctic birch forest at Kilpisjärvi, Finland, we report statistical results showing that both interspecific and intraspecific effects are important in the direct year-to-year density dependence. However, interspecific effects are not detectable in the 2-year delayed density dependence that is crucial for generating the characteristic cycles. Furthermore, we show that most of the competition takes place during the winter. The results are evaluated against two models of community dynamics. One assumes that the delayed effects are caused by an interaction with a specialist predator, and the other assumes that they are caused by overgrazing food plants. These statistical results show that vole cycles may be generated by a species-specific trophic interaction. The results also suggest that the gray-sided vole may be the focal species in the birch-forest community, as field voles may be in the taiga and as lemmings may be on the tundra. PMID:9927680

Modelling the dynamics of traits involved in fighting-predators-prey system.

PubMed

Kooi, B W

2015-12-01

We study the dynamics of a predator-prey system where predators fight for captured prey besides searching for and handling (and digestion) of the prey. Fighting for prey is modelled by a continuous time hawk-dove game dynamics where the gain depends on the amount of disputed prey while the costs for fighting is constant per fighting event. The strategy of the predator-population is quantified by a trait being the proportion of the number of predator-individuals playing hawk tactics. The dynamics of the trait is described by two models of adaptation: the replicator dynamics (RD) and the adaptive dynamics (AD). In the RD-approach a variant individual with an adapted trait value changes the population's strategy, and consequently its trait value, only when its payoff is larger than the population average. In the AD-approach successful replacement of the resident population after invasion of a rare variant population with an adapted trait value is a step in a sequence changing the population's strategy, and hence its trait value. The main aim is to compare the consequences of the two adaptation models. In an equilibrium predator-prey system this will lead to convergence to a neutral singular strategy, while in the oscillatory system to a continuous singular strategy where in this endpoint the resident population is not invasible by any variant population. In equilibrium (low prey carrying capacity) RD and AD-approach give the same results, however not always in a periodically oscillating system (high prey carrying-capacity) where the trait is density-dependent. For low costs the predator population is monomorphic (only hawks) while for high costs dimorphic (hawks and doves). These results illustrate that intra-specific trait dynamics matters in predator-prey dynamics.

Collective effects and dynamics of non-adiabatic flame balls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Angelo, Yves; Joulin, Guy

2001-03-01

The dynamics of a homogeneous, polydisperse collection of non-adiabatic flame balls (FBs) is investigated by analytical/numerical means. A strongly temperature-dependent Arrhenius reaction rate is assumed, along with a light enough reactant characterized by a markedly less than unity Lewis number (Le). Combining activation-energy asymptotics with a mean-field type of treatment, the analysis yields a nonlinear integro-differential evolution equation (EE) for the FB population. The EE accounts for heat losses inside each FB and unsteadiness around it, as well as for its interactions with the entire FB population, namely mutual heating and faster (Le<1) consumption of the reactant pool. The initial FB number density and size distribution enter the EE explicitly. The latter is studied analytically at early times, then for small total FB number densities; it is subsequently solved numerically, yielding the whole population evolution and its lifetime. Generalizations and open questions relating to `spotty' turbulent combustion are finally evoked.

The impact of exospheric neutral dynamics on ring current decay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ilie, R.; Liemohn, M. W.; Skoug, R. M.; Funsten, H. O.; Gruntman, M.; Bailey, J. J.; Toth, G.

2015-12-01

The geocorona plays an important role in the energy budget of the Earth's inner magnetosphere since charge exchange of energetic ions with exospheric neutrals makes the exosphere act as an energy sink for ring current particles. Long-term ring current decay following a magnetic storm is mainly due to these electron transfer reactions, leading to the formation energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) that leave the ring current system on ballistic trajectories. The number of ENAs emitted from a given region of space depends on several factors, such as the energy and species of the energetic ion population in that region and the density of the neutral gas with which the ions undergo charge exchange. However, the density and structure of the exosphere are strongly dependent on changes in atmospheric temperature and density as well as charge exchange with the ions of plasmaspheric origin, which depletes the geocorona (by having a neutral removed from the system). Moreover, the radiation pressure exerted by solar far-ultraviolet photons pushes the geocoronal hydrogen away from the Earth in an anti-sunward direction to form a tail of neutral hydrogen. TWINS ENA images provide a direct measurement of these ENA losses and therefore insight into the dynamics of the ring current decay through interactions with the geocorona. We assess the influence of geocoronal neutrals on ring current formation and decay by analysis of the predicted ENA emissions using 6 different geocoronal models and simulations from the HEIDI ring current model during storm time. Comparison with TWINS ENA images shows that the location of the peak ENA enhancements is highly dependent on the distribution of geocoronal hydrogen density. We show that the neutral dynamics has a strong influence on the time evolution of the ring current populations as well as on the formation of energetic neutral atoms.

The interacting effects of temperature and food chain length on trophic abundance and ecosystem function.

PubMed

Beveridge, Oliver S; Humphries, Stuart; Petchey, Owen L

2010-05-01

1. While much is known about the independent effects of trophic structure and temperature on density and ecosystem processes, less is known about the interaction(s) between the two. 2. We manipulated the temperature of laboratory-based bacteria-protist communities that contained communities with one, two, or three trophic levels, and recorded species' densities and bacterial decomposition. 3. Temperature, food chain length and their interaction produced significant responses in microbial density and bacterial decomposition. Prey and resource density expressed different patterns of temperature dependency during different phases of population dynamics. The addition of a predator altered the temperature-density relationship of prey, from a unimodal trend to a negative one. Bacterial decomposition was greatest in the presence of consumers at higher temperatures. 4. These results are qualitatively consistent with a recent model of direct and indirect temperature effects on resource-consumer population dynamics. Results highlight and reinforce the importance of indirect effects of temperature mediated through trophic interactions. Understanding and predicting the consequences of environmental change will require that indirect effects, trophic structure, and individual species' tolerances be incorporated into theory and models.

Quantitative Investigation of the Role of Intra-/Intercellular Dynamics in Bacterial Quorum Sensing.

PubMed

Leaman, Eric J; Geuther, Brian Q; Behkam, Bahareh

2018-04-20

Bacteria utilize diffusible signals to regulate population density-dependent coordinated gene expression in a process called quorum sensing (QS). While the intracellular regulatory mechanisms of QS are well-understood, the effect of spatiotemporal changes in the population configuration on the sensitivity and robustness of the QS response remains largely unexplored. Using a microfluidic device, we quantitatively characterized the emergent behavior of a population of swimming E. coli bacteria engineered with the lux QS system and a GFP reporter. We show that the QS activation time follows a power law with respect to bacterial population density, but this trend is disrupted significantly by microscale variations in population configuration and genetic circuit noise. We then developed a computational model that integrates population dynamics with genetic circuit dynamics to enable accurate (less than 7% error) quantitation of the bacterial QS activation time. Through modeling and experimental analyses, we show that changes in spatial configuration of swimming bacteria can drastically alter the QS activation time, by up to 22%. The integrative model developed herein also enables examination of the performance robustness of synthetic circuits with respect to growth rate, circuit sensitivity, and the population's initial size and spatial structure. Our framework facilitates quantitative tuning of microbial systems performance through rational engineering of synthetic ribosomal binding sites. We have demonstrated this through modulation of QS activation time over an order of magnitude. Altogether, we conclude that predictive engineering of QS-based bacterial systems requires not only the precise temporal modulation of gene expression (intracellular dynamics) but also accounting for the spatiotemporal changes in population configuration (intercellular dynamics).

Effects of host plant and larval density on intraspecific competition in larvae of the emerald ash borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae).

PubMed

Duan, Jian J; Larson, Kristi; Watt, Tim; Gould, Juli; Lelito, Jonathan P

2013-12-01

Competition for food, mates, and space among different individuals of the same insect species can affect density-dependent regulation of insect abundance or population dynamics. The emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), is a serious invasive pest of North American ash (Fraxinus spp.) trees, with its larvae feeding in serpentine galleries between the interface of sapwood and phloem tissues of ash trees. Using artificial infestation of freshly cut logs of green ash (Fraxinus pennsylvanica Marshall) and tropical ash (Fraxinus uhdei [Wenzig] Lingelsh) with a series of egg densities, we evaluated the mechanism and outcome of intraspecific competition in larvae of A. planipennis in relation to larval density and host plant species. Results from our study showed that as the egg densities on each log (1.5-6.5 cm in diameter and 22-25 cm in length) increased from 200 to 1,600 eggs per square meter of surface area, larval survivorship declined from ≍68 to 10% for the green ash logs, and 86 to 55% for tropical ash logs. Accordingly, larval mortality resulting from cannibalism, starvation, or both, significantly increased as egg density increased, and the biomass of surviving larvae significantly decreased on both ash species. When larval density was adjusted to the same level, however, larval mortality from intraspecific competition was significantly higher and mean biomasses of surviving larvae was significantly lower in green ash than in tropical ash. The role of intraspecific competition of A. planipennis larvae in density-dependent regulation of its natural population dynamics is discussed.

Uncertainty, robustness, and the value of information in managing an expanding Arctic goose population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Fred A.; Jensen, Gitte H.; Madsen, Jesper; Williams, Byron K.

2014-01-01

We explored the application of dynamic-optimization methods to the problem of pink-footed goose (Anser brachyrhynchus) management in western Europe. We were especially concerned with the extent to which uncertainty in population dynamics influenced an optimal management strategy, the gain in management performance that could be expected if uncertainty could be eliminated or reduced, and whether an adaptive or robust management strategy might be most appropriate in the face of uncertainty. We combined three alternative survival models with three alternative reproductive models to form a set of nine annual-cycle models for pink-footed geese. These models represent a wide range of possibilities concerning the extent to which demographic rates are density dependent or independent, and the extent to which they are influenced by spring temperatures. We calculated state-dependent harvest strategies for these models using stochastic dynamic programming and an objective function that maximized sustainable harvest, subject to a constraint on desired population size. As expected, attaining the largest mean objective value (i.e., the relative measure of management performance) depended on the ability to match a model-dependent optimal strategy with its generating model of population dynamics. The nine models suggested widely varying objective values regardless of the harvest strategy, with the density-independent models generally producing higher objective values than models with density-dependent survival. In the face of uncertainty as to which of the nine models is most appropriate, the optimal strategy assuming that both survival and reproduction were a function of goose abundance and spring temperatures maximized the expected minimum objective value (i.e., maxi–min). In contrast, the optimal strategy assuming equal model weights minimized the expected maximum loss in objective value. The expected value of eliminating model uncertainty was an increase in objective value of only 3.0%. This value represents the difference between the best that could be expected if the most appropriate model were known and the best that could be expected in the face of model uncertainty. The value of eliminating uncertainty about the survival process was substantially higher than that associated with the reproductive process, which is consistent with evidence that variation in survival is more important than variation in reproduction in relatively long-lived avian species. Comparing the expected objective value if the most appropriate model were known with that of the maxi–min robust strategy, we found the value of eliminating uncertainty to be an expected increase of 6.2% in objective value. This result underscores the conservatism of the maxi–min rule and suggests that risk-neutral managers would prefer the optimal strategy that maximizes expected value, which is also the strategy that is expected to minimize the maximum loss (i.e., a strategy based on equal model weights). The low value of information calculated for pink-footed geese suggests that a robust strategy (i.e., one in which no learning is anticipated) could be as nearly effective as an adaptive one (i.e., a strategy in which the relative credibility of models is assessed through time). Of course, an alternative explanation for the low value of information is that the set of population models we considered was too narrow to represent key uncertainties in population dynamics. Yet we know that questions about the presence of density dependence must be central to the development of a sustainable harvest strategy. And while there are potentially many environmental covariates that could help explain variation in survival or reproduction, our admission of models in which vital rates are drawn randomly from reasonable distributions represents a worst-case scenario for management. We suspect that much of the value of the various harvest strategies we calculated is derived from the fact that they are state dependent, such that appropriate harvest rates depend on population abundance and weather conditions, as well as our focus on an infinite time horizon for sustainability.

Demographic response of black bears at Cold Lake, Alberta, to the removal of adult males

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sargeant, Glen A.; Ruff, Robert L.

2001-01-01

Previous reports described an increase in population density following the removal of 23 adult male black bears (Ursus americanus) from a 218-km2 study area near Cold Lake, Alberta (the CLSA). This finding plays a central role in continuing debates over population regulation in bears, but has recently been criticized because density estimates were based on assumptions that were not met. Moreover, subsequent discussion has been predicated on conjecture that human exploitation had minimal influence on population dynamics. Our reanalysis supports previous descriptions of trends in bear density at Cold Lake. However, survival records revealed heavier exploitation than previously suspected. An underlying assumption of previous interpretationsCthat the Cold Lake bear population was naturally regulated near carrying capacityCno longer seems reasonable. Adult males deterred bears in other sex-age groups from using the CLSA; however, we found no evidence that birth or death rates were affected. The observed increase in local density should not be construed as a density-dependent response. Abrupt changes in local density might not have occurred if males had been removed from a larger area encompassing the CLSA.

Experimental Examination of Intraspecific Density-Dependent Competition during the Breeding Period in Monarch Butterflies (Danaus plexippus)

PubMed Central

Flockhart, D. T. Tyler; Martin, Tara G.; Norris, D. Ryan

2012-01-01

A central goal of population ecology is to identify the factors that regulate population growth. Monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) in eastern North America re-colonize the breeding range over several generations that result in population densities that vary across space and time during the breeding season. We used laboratory experiments to measure the strength of density-dependent intraspecific competition on egg laying rate and larval survival and then applied our results to density estimates of wild monarch populations to model the strength of density dependence during the breeding season. Egg laying rates did not change with density but larvae at high densities were smaller, had lower survival, and weighed less as adults compared to lower densities. Using mean larval densities from field surveys resulted in conservative estimates of density-dependent population reduction that varied between breeding regions and different phases of the breeding season. Our results suggest the highest levels of population reduction due to density-dependent intraspecific competition occur early in the breeding season in the southern portion of the breeding range. However, we also found that the strength of density dependence could be almost five times higher depending on how many life-stages were used as part of field estimates. Our study is the first to link experimental results of a density-dependent reduction in vital rates to observed monarch densities in the wild and show that the effects of density dependent competition in monarchs varies across space and time, providing valuable information for developing robust, year-round population models in this migratory organism. PMID:22984614

Hydrology and density feedbacks control the ecology of intermediate hosts of schistosomiasis across habitats in seasonal climates

PubMed Central

Perez-Saez, Javier; Mande, Theophile; Ceperley, Natalie; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Rinaldo, Andrea

2016-01-01

We report about field and theoretical studies on the ecology of the aquatic snails (Bulinus spp. and Biomphalaria pfeifferi) that serve as obligate intermediate hosts in the complex life cycle of the parasites causing human schistosomiasis. Snail abundance fosters disease transmission, and thus the dynamics of snail populations are critically important for schistosomiasis modeling and control. Here, we single out hydrological drivers and density dependence (or lack of it) of ecological growth rates of local snail populations by contrasting novel ecological and environmental data with various models of host demography. Specifically, we study various natural and man-made habitats across Burkina Faso’s highly seasonal climatic zones. Demographic models are ranked through formal model comparison and structural risk minimization. The latter allows us to evaluate the suitability of population models while clarifying the relevant covariates that explain empirical observations of snail abundance under the actual climatic forcings experienced by the various field sites. Our results link quantitatively hydrological drivers to distinct population dynamics through specific density feedbacks, and show that statistical methods based on model averaging provide reliable snail abundance projections. The consistency of our ranking results suggests the use of ad hoc models of snail demography depending on habitat type (e.g., natural vs. man-made) and hydrological characteristics (e.g., ephemeral vs. permanent). Implications for risk mapping and space-time allocation of control measures in schistosomiasis-endemic contexts are discussed. PMID:27162339

Hydrology and density feedbacks control the ecology of intermediate hosts of schistosomiasis across habitats in seasonal climates.

PubMed

Perez-Saez, Javier; Mande, Theophile; Ceperley, Natalie; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Gatto, Marino; Rinaldo, Andrea

2016-06-07

We report about field and theoretical studies on the ecology of the aquatic snails (Bulinus spp. and Biomphalaria pfeifferi) that serve as obligate intermediate hosts in the complex life cycle of the parasites causing human schistosomiasis. Snail abundance fosters disease transmission, and thus the dynamics of snail populations are critically important for schistosomiasis modeling and control. Here, we single out hydrological drivers and density dependence (or lack of it) of ecological growth rates of local snail populations by contrasting novel ecological and environmental data with various models of host demography. Specifically, we study various natural and man-made habitats across Burkina Faso's highly seasonal climatic zones. Demographic models are ranked through formal model comparison and structural risk minimization. The latter allows us to evaluate the suitability of population models while clarifying the relevant covariates that explain empirical observations of snail abundance under the actual climatic forcings experienced by the various field sites. Our results link quantitatively hydrological drivers to distinct population dynamics through specific density feedbacks, and show that statistical methods based on model averaging provide reliable snail abundance projections. The consistency of our ranking results suggests the use of ad hoc models of snail demography depending on habitat type (e.g., natural vs. man-made) and hydrological characteristics (e.g., ephemeral vs. permanent). Implications for risk mapping and space-time allocation of control measures in schistosomiasis-endemic contexts are discussed.

Multiple density dependence in two sub-populations of the amphipod Monoporeia affinis: a potential for alternative equilibria.

PubMed

Leonardsson, Kjell

1994-02-01

Possible mechanisms for differences in population densities and dynamics were investigated in the amphipod Monoporeia affinis at two deep sites in the northern Bothnian Sea. The two sites were sampled yearly for 10 years. Average sizes, growth and mortality of the different age-classes were estimated from the cohort structure of the two populations. Laboratory experiments also investigated the ability of the common predatory isopod Saduria entomon to cause densitydependent (DD) mortality of the prey M. affinis. At site A, 43 m depth, the average density of M. affinis was twice as high as at site B, 81 m depth. The fluctuations in density were asynchronous between the two sites. Recruitment and subadult sizes of Monoporeia affinis were density dependent at both sites. The main functional difference between the two populations seemed to be the DD mortality of the 1 + cohort that occurred only at the low-density site B. A corresponding DD mortality was found in the predation experiments at densities of 1 + m. affinis corresponding to those found at site B. The potential importance of the predator was also indicated by a significant negative correlation between the biomass of S. entomon and the rate of change in M. affinis density in the field. The similarities in the abiotic factors between the two sites suggested that differences in carrying capacity should be small. The results could be explained by the predation regulation hypothesis for the low-density population at site B, while at site A M. affinis seemed to be regulated by intra-specific competition and limited by predation. It is suggested that in this simple predator-prey system there is potential for the existence of alternative equilibria.

Temperature-driven regime shifts in the dynamics of size-structured populations.

PubMed

Ohlberger, Jan; Edeline, Eric; Vøllestad, Leif Asbjørn; Stenseth, Nils C; Claessen, David

2011-02-01

Global warming impacts virtually all biota and ecosystems. Many of these impacts are mediated through direct effects of temperature on individual vital rates. Yet how this translates from the individual to the population level is still poorly understood, hampering the assessment of global warming impacts on population structure and dynamics. Here, we study the effects of temperature on intraspecific competition and cannibalism and the population dynamical consequences in a size-structured fish population. We use a physiologically structured consumer-resource model in which we explicitly model the temperature dependencies of the consumer vital rates and the resource population growth rate. Our model predicts that increased temperature decreases resource density despite higher resource growth rates, reflecting stronger intraspecific competition among consumers. At a critical temperature, the consumer population dynamics destabilize and shift from a stable equilibrium to competition-driven generation cycles that are dominated by recruits. As a consequence, maximum age decreases and the proportion of younger and smaller-sized fish increases. These model predictions support the hypothesis of decreasing mean body sizes due to increased temperatures. We conclude that in size-structured fish populations, global warming may increase competition, favor smaller size classes, and induce regime shifts that destabilize population and community dynamics.

Population Density and Moment-based Approaches to Modeling Domain Calcium-mediated Inactivation of L-type Calcium Channels.

PubMed

Wang, Xiao; Hardcastle, Kiah; Weinberg, Seth H; Smith, Gregory D

2016-03-01

We present a population density and moment-based description of the stochastic dynamics of domain [Formula: see text]-mediated inactivation of L-type [Formula: see text] channels. Our approach accounts for the effect of heterogeneity of local [Formula: see text] signals on whole cell [Formula: see text] currents; however, in contrast with prior work, e.g., Sherman et al. (Biophys J 58(4):985-995, 1990), we do not assume that [Formula: see text] domain formation and collapse are fast compared to channel gating. We demonstrate the population density and moment-based modeling approaches using a 12-state Markov chain model of an L-type [Formula: see text] channel introduced by Greenstein and Winslow (Biophys J 83(6):2918-2945, 2002). Simulated whole cell voltage clamp responses yield an inactivation function for the whole cell [Formula: see text] current that agrees with the traditional approach when domain dynamics are fast. We analyze the voltage-dependence of [Formula: see text] inactivation that may occur via slow heterogeneous domain [[Formula: see text

Predicting population dynamics from the properties of individuals: a cross-level test of dynamic energy budget theory.

PubMed

Martin, Benjamin T; Jager, Tjalling; Nisbet, Roger M; Preuss, Thomas G; Grimm, Volker

2013-04-01

Individual-based models (IBMs) are increasingly used to link the dynamics of individuals to higher levels of biological organization. Still, many IBMs are data hungry, species specific, and time-consuming to develop and analyze. Many of these issues would be resolved by using general theories of individual dynamics as the basis for IBMs. While such theories have frequently been examined at the individual level, few cross-level tests exist that also try to predict population dynamics. Here we performed a cross-level test of dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory by parameterizing an individual-based model using individual-level data of the water flea, Daphnia magna, and comparing the emerging population dynamics to independent data from population experiments. We found that DEB theory successfully predicted population growth rates and peak densities but failed to capture the decline phase. Further assumptions on food-dependent mortality of juveniles were needed to capture the population dynamics after the initial population peak. The resulting model then predicted, without further calibration, characteristic switches between small- and large-amplitude cycles, which have been observed for Daphnia. We conclude that cross-level tests help detect gaps in current individual-level theories and ultimately will lead to theory development and the establishment of a generic basis for individual-based models and ecology.

A phase transition induces chaos in a predator-prey ecosystem with a dynamic fitness landscape

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

In many ecosystems, natural selection can occur quickly enough to influence the population dynamics and thus future selection. This suggests the importance of extending classical population dynamics models to include such eco-evolutionary processes. Here, we describe a predator-prey model in which the prey population growth depends on a prey density-dependent fitness landscape. We show that this two-species ecosystem is capable of exhibiting chaos even in the absence of external environmental variation or noise, and that the onset of chaotic dynamics is the result of the fitness landscape reversibly alternating between epochs of stabilizing and disruptive selection. We draw an analogy between the fitness function and the free energy in statistical mechanics, allowing us to use the physical theory of first-order phase transitions to understand the onset of rapid cycling in the chaotic predator-prey dynamics. We use quantitative techniques to study the relevance of our model to observational studies of complex ecosystems, finding that the evolution-driven chaotic dynamics confer community stability at the “edge of chaos” while creating a wide distribution of opportunities for speciation during epochs of disruptive selection—a potential observable signature of chaotic eco-evolutionary dynamics in experimental studies. PMID:28678792

Irruptive dynamics of introduced caribou on Adak Island, Alaska: an evaluation of Riney-Caughley model predictions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ricca, Mark A.; Van Vuren, Dirk H.; Weckerly, Floyd W.; Williams, Jeffrey C.; Miles, A. Keith

2014-01-01

Large mammalian herbivores introduced to islands without predators are predicted to undergo irruptive population and spatial dynamics, but only a few well-documented case studies support this paradigm. We used the Riney-Caughley model as a framework to test predictions of irruptive population growth and spatial expansion of caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) introduced to Adak Island in the Aleutian archipelago of Alaska in 1958 and 1959. We utilized a time series of spatially explicit counts conducted on this population intermittently over a 54-year period. Population size increased from 23 released animals to approximately 2900 animals in 2012. Population dynamics were characterized by two distinct periods of irruptive growth separated by a long time period of relative stability, and the catalyst for the initial irruption was more likely related to annual variation in hunting pressure than weather conditions. An unexpected pattern resembling logistic population growth occurred between the peak of the second irruption in 2005 and the next survey conducted seven years later in 2012. Model simulations indicated that an increase in reported harvest alone could not explain the deceleration in population growth, yet high levels of unreported harvest combined with increasing density-dependent feedbacks on fecundity and survival were the most plausible explanation for the observed population trend. No studies of introduced island Rangifer have measured a time series of spatial use to the extent described in this study. Spatial use patterns during the post-calving season strongly supported Riney-Caughley model predictions, whereby high-density core areas expanded outwardly as population size increased. During the calving season, caribou displayed marked site fidelity across the full range of population densities despite availability of other suitable habitats for calving. Finally, dispersal and reproduction on neighboring Kagalaska Island represented a new dispersal front for irruptive dynamics and a new challenge for resource managers. The future demography of caribou on both islands is far from certain, yet sustained and significant hunting pressure should be a vital management tool.

The Effect of Inhibitory Neuron on the Evolution Model of Higher-Order Coupling Neural Oscillator Population

PubMed Central

Qi, Yi; Wang, Rubin; Jiao, Xianfa; Du, Ying

2014-01-01

We proposed a higher-order coupling neural network model including the inhibitory neurons and examined the dynamical evolution of average number density and phase-neural coding under the spontaneous activity and external stimulating condition. The results indicated that increase of inhibitory coupling strength will cause decrease of average number density, whereas increase of excitatory coupling strength will cause increase of stable amplitude of average number density. Whether the neural oscillator population is able to enter the new synchronous oscillation or not is determined by excitatory and inhibitory coupling strength. In the presence of external stimulation, the evolution of the average number density is dependent upon the external stimulation and the coupling term in which the dominator will determine the final evolution. PMID:24516505

Temporal changes in kin structure through a population cycle in a territorial bird, the red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus.

PubMed

Piertney, Stuart B; Lambin, Xavier; Maccoll, Andrew D C; Lock, Kerry; Bacon, Philip J; Dallas, John F; Leckie, Fiona; Mougeot, Francois; Racey, Paul A; Redpath, Steve; Moss, Robert

2008-05-01

Populations of red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus) undergo regular multiannual cycles in abundance. The 'kinship hypothesis' posits that such cycles are caused by changes in kin structure among territorial males producing delayed density-dependent changes in aggressiveness, which in turn influence recruitment and regulate density. The kinship hypothesis makes several specific predictions about the levels of kinship, aggressiveness and recruitment through a population cycle: (i) kin structure will build up during the increase phase of a cycle, but break down prior to peak density; (ii) kin structure influences aggressiveness, such that there will be a negative relationship between kinship and aggressiveness over the years; (iii) as aggressiveness regulates recruitment and density, there will be a negative relationship between aggressiveness in one year and both recruitment and density in the next; (iv) as kin structure influences recruitment via an affect on aggressiveness, there will be a positive relationship between kinship in one year and recruitment the next. Here we test these predictions through the course of an 8-year cycle in a natural population of red grouse in northeast Scotland, using microsatellite DNA markers to resolve changing patterns of kin structure, and supra-orbital comb height of grouse as an index of aggressiveness. Both kin structure and aggressiveness were dynamic through the course of the cycle, and changing patterns were entirely consistent with the expectations of the kinship hypothesis. Results are discussed in relation to potential drivers of population regulation and implications of dynamic kin structure for population genetics.

Population viability of the Snake River chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Emlen, John M.

1995-01-01

In the presence of historical data, population viability models of intermediate complexity can be parameterized and utilized to project the consequences of various management actions for endangered species. A general stochastic population dynamics model with density feedback, age structure, and autocorrelated environmental fluctuations was constructed and parameterized for best fit over 36 years of spring chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) redd count data in five Idaho index streams. Simulations indicate that persistence of the Snake River spring chinook salmon population depends primarily on density-independent mortality. Improvement of rearing habitat, predator control, reduced fishing pressure, and improved dam passage all would alleviate density-independent mortality. The current value of the Ricker α should provide for a continuation of the status quo. A recovery of the population to 1957–1961 levels within 100 years would require an approximately 75% increase in survival and (or) fecundity. Manipulations of the Ricker β are likely to have little or no effect on persistence versus extinction, but considerable influence on population size.

[Gypsy moth Lymantria dispar L. in the South Urals: Patterns in population dynamics and modelling].

PubMed

Soukhovolsky, V G; Ponomarev, V I; Sokolov, G I; Tarasova, O V; Krasnoperova, P A

2015-01-01

The analysis is conducted on population dynamics of gypsy moth from different habitats of the South Urals. The pattern of cyclic changes in population density is examined, the assessment of temporal conjugation in time series of gypsy moth population dynamics from separate habitats of the South Urals is carried out, the relationships between population density and weather conditions are studied. Based on the results obtained, a statistical model of gypsy moth population dynamics in the South Urals is designed, and estimations are given of regulatory and modifying factors effects on the population dynamics.

Hierarchy of forward-backward stochastic Schrödinger equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ke, Yaling; Zhao, Yi

2016-07-01

Driven by the impetus to simulate quantum dynamics in photosynthetic complexes or even larger molecular aggregates, we have established a hierarchy of forward-backward stochastic Schrödinger equation in the light of stochastic unravelling of the symmetric part of the influence functional in the path-integral formalism of reduced density operator. The method is numerically exact and is suited for Debye-Drude spectral density, Ohmic spectral density with an algebraic or exponential cutoff, as well as discrete vibrational modes. The power of this method is verified by performing the calculations of time-dependent population differences in the valuable spin-boson model from zero to high temperatures. By simulating excitation energy transfer dynamics of the realistic full FMO trimer, some important features are revealed.

The Role of Climatic and Density Dependent Factors in Shaping Mosquito Population Dynamics: The Case of Culex pipiens in Northwestern Italy

PubMed Central

Giacobini, Mario; Pugliese, Andrea; Merler, Stefano; Rosà, Roberto

2016-01-01

Culex pipiens mosquito is a species widely spread across Europe and represents a competent vector for many arboviruses such as West Nile virus (WNV), which has been recently circulating in many European countries, causing hundreds of human cases. In order to identify the main determinants of the high heterogeneity in Cx. pipiens abundance observed in Piedmont region (Northwestern Italy) among different seasons, we developed a density-dependent stochastic model that takes explicitly into account the role played by temperature, which affects both developmental and mortality rates of different life stages. The model was calibrated with a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach exploring the likelihood of recorded capture data gathered in the study area from 2000 to 2011; in this way, we disentangled the role played by different seasonal eco-climatic factors in shaping the vector abundance. Illustrative simulations have been performed to forecast likely changes if temperature or density–dependent inputs would change. Our analysis suggests that inter-seasonal differences in the mosquito dynamics are largely driven by different temporal patterns of temperature and seasonal-specific larval carrying capacities. Specifically, high temperatures during early spring hasten the onset of the breeding season and increase population abundance in that period, while, high temperatures during the summer can decrease population size by increasing adult mortality. Higher densities of adult mosquitoes are associated with higher larval carrying capacities, which are positively correlated with spring precipitations. Finally, an increase in larval carrying capacity is expected to proportionally increase adult mosquito abundance. PMID:27105065

r- and K-selection in fluctuating populations is determined by the evolutionary trade-off between two fitness measures: Growth rate and lifetime reproductive success.

PubMed

Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2017-01-01

In a stable environment, evolution maximizes growth rates in populations that are not density regulated and the carrying capacity in the case of density regulation. In a fluctuating environment, evolution maximizes a function of growth rate, carrying capacity and environmental variance, tending to r-selection and K-selection under large and small environmental noise, respectively. Here we analyze a model in which birth and death rates depend on density through the same function but with independent strength of density dependence. As a special case, both functions may be linear, corresponding to logistic dynamics. It is shown that evolution maximizes a function of the deterministic growth rate r 0 and the lifetime reproductive success (LRS) R 0 , both defined at small densities, as well as the environmental variance. Under large noise this function is dominated by r 0 and average lifetimes are small, whereas R 0 dominates and lifetimes are larger under small noise. Thus, K-selection is closely linked to selection for large R 0 so that evolution tends to maximize LRS in a stable environment. Consequently, different quantities (r 0 and R 0 ) tend to be maximized at low and high densities, respectively, favoring density-dependent changes in the optimal life history. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Resource-driven changes to host population stability alter the evolution of virulence and transmission.

PubMed

Hite, Jessica L; Cressler, Clayton E

2018-05-05

What drives the evolution of parasite life-history traits? Recent studies suggest that linking within- and between-host processes can provide key insight into both disease dynamics and parasite evolution. Still, it remains difficult to understand how to pinpoint the critical factors connecting these cross-scale feedbacks, particularly under non-equilibrium conditions; many natural host populations inherently fluctuate and parasites themselves can strongly alter the stability of host populations. Here, we develop a general model framework that mechanistically links resources to parasite evolution across a gradient of stable and unstable conditions. First, we dynamically link resources and between-host processes (host density, stability, transmission) to virulence evolution, using a 'non-nested' model. Then, we consider a 'nested' model where population-level processes (transmission and virulence) depend on resource-driven changes to individual-level (within-host) processes (energetics, immune function, parasite production). Contrary to 'non-nested' model predictions, the 'nested' model reveals complex effects of host population dynamics on parasite evolution, including regions of evolutionary bistability; evolution can push parasites towards strongly or weakly stabilizing strategies. This bistability results from dynamic feedbacks between resource-driven changes to host density, host immune function and parasite production. Together, these results highlight how cross-scale feedbacks can provide key insights into the structuring role of parasites and parasite evolution.This article is part of the theme issue 'Anthropogenic resource subsidies and host-parasite dynamics in wildlife'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Whitebark pine, population density, and home-range size of grizzly bears in the greater Yellowstone ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjornlie, Daniel D.; van Manen, Frank T.; Ebinger, Michael R.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Thompson, Daniel J.; Costello, Cecily M.

2014-01-01

Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size.

Whitebark Pine, Population Density, and Home-Range Size of Grizzly Bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

PubMed Central

Bjornlie, Daniel D.; Van Manen, Frank T.; Ebinger, Michael R.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Thompson, Daniel J.; Costello, Cecily M.

2014-01-01

Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size. PMID:24520354

Whitebark pine, population density, and home-range size of grizzly bears in the greater yellowstone ecosystem.

PubMed

Bjornlie, Daniel D; Van Manen, Frank T; Ebinger, Michael R; Haroldson, Mark A; Thompson, Daniel J; Costello, Cecily M

2014-01-01

Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size.

Dynamic current susceptibility as a probe of Majorana bound states in nanowire-based Josephson junctions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trif, Mircea; Dmytruk, Olesia; Bouchiat, Hélène; Aguado, Ramón; Simon, Pascal

2018-02-01

We theoretically study a Josephson junction based on a semiconducting nanowire subject to a time-dependent flux bias. We establish a general density-matrix approach for the dynamical response of the Majorana junction and calculate the resulting flux-dependent susceptibility using both microscopic and effective low-energy descriptions for the nanowire. We find that the diagonal component of the susceptibility, associated with the dynamics of the Majorana state populations, dominates over the standard Kubo contribution for a wide range of experimentally relevant parameters. The diagonal term, explored, in this Rapid Communication, in the context of Majorana physics, allows probing accurately the presence of Majorana bound states in the junction.

Mapping the temperature-dependent conformational landscapes of the dynamic enzymes cyclophilin A and urease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorne, Robert; Keedy, Daniel; Warkentin, Matthew; Fraser, James; Moreau, David; Atakisi, Hakan; Rau, Peter

Proteins populate complex, temperature-dependent ensembles of conformations that enable their function. Yet in X-ray crystallographic studies, roughly 98% of structures have been determined at 100 K, and most refined to only a single conformation. A combination of experimental methods enabled by studies of ice formation and computational methods for mining low-density features in electron density maps have been applied to determine the evolution of the conformational landscapes of the enzymes cyclophilin A and urease between 300 K and 100 K. Minority conformations of most side chains depopulate on cooling from 300 to ~200 K, below which subsequent conformational evolution is quenched. The characteristic temperatures for this depopulation are highly heterogeneous throughout each enzyme. The temperature-dependent ensemble of the active site flap in urease has also been mapped. These all-atom, site-resolved measurements and analyses rule out one interpretation of the protein-solvent glass transition, and give an alternative interpretation of a dynamical transition identified in site-averaged experiments. They demonstrate a powerful approach to structural characterization of the dynamic underpinnings of protein function. Supported by NSF MCB-1330685.

Disturbance frequency and vertical distribution of seeds affect long-term population dynamics: a mechanistic seed bank model.

PubMed

Eager, Eric Alan; Haridas, Chirakkal V; Pilson, Diana; Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte

2013-08-01

Seed banks are critically important for disturbance specialist plants because seeds of these species germinate only in disturbed soil. Disturbance and seed depth affect the survival and germination probability of seeds in the seed bank, which in turn affect population dynamics. We develop a density-dependent stochastic integral projection model to evaluate the effect of stochastic soil disturbances on plant population dynamics with an emphasis on mimicking how disturbances vertically redistribute seeds within the seed bank. We perform a simulation analysis of the effect of the frequency and mean depth of disturbances on the population's quasi-extinction probability, as well as the long-term mean and variance of the total density of seeds in the seed bank. We show that increasing the frequency of disturbances increases the long-term viability of the population, but the relationship between the mean depth of disturbance and the long-term viability of the population are not necessarily monotonic for all parameter combinations. Specifically, an increase in the probability of disturbance increases the long-term viability of the total seed bank population. However, if the probability of disturbance is too low, a shallower mean depth of disturbance can increase long-term viability, a relationship that switches as the probability of disturbance increases. However, a shallow disturbance depth is beneficial only in scenarios with low survival in the seed bank.

High population density enhances recruitment and survival of a harvested coral reef fish.

PubMed

Wormald, Clare L; Steele, Mark A; Forrester, Graham E

2013-03-01

A negative relationship between population growth and population density (direct density dependence) is necessary for population regulation and is assumed in most models of harvested populations. Experimental tests for density dependence are lacking for large-bodied, harvested fish because of the difficulty of manipulating population density over large areas. We studied a harvested coral reef fish, Lutjanus apodus (schoolmaster snapper), using eight large, isolated natural reefs (0.4-1.6 ha) in the Bahamas as replicates. An initial observational test for density dependence was followed by a manipulation of population density. The manipulation weakened an association between density and shelter-providing habitat features and revealed a positive effect of population density on recruitment and survival (inverse density dependence), but no effect of density on somatic growth. The snappers on an individual reef were organized into a few shoals, and we hypothesize that large shoals on high-density reefs were less vulnerable to large piscivores (groupers and barracudas) than the small shoals on low-density reefs. Reductions in predation risk for individuals in large social groups are well documented, but because snapper shoals occupied reefs the size of small marine reserves, these ecological interactions may influence the outcome of management actions.

Generation and decay dynamics of triplet excitons in Alq3 thin films under high-density excitation conditions.

PubMed

Watanabe, Sadayuki; Furube, Akihiro; Katoh, Ryuzi

2006-08-31

We studied the generation and decay dynamics of triplet excitons in tris-(8-hydroxyquinoline) aluminum (Alq3) thin films by using transient absorption spectroscopy. Absorption spectra of both singlet and triplet excitons in the film were identified by comparison with transient absorption spectra of the ligand molecule (8-hydroxyquinoline) itself and the excited triplet state in solution previously reported. By measuring the excitation light intensity dependence of the absorption, we found that exciton annihilation dominated under high-density excitation conditions. Annihilation rate constants were estimated to be gammaSS = (6 +/- 3) x 10(-11) cm3 s(-1) for single excitons and gammaTT = (4 +/- 2) x 10(-13) cm3 s(-1) for triplet excitons. From detailed analysis of the light intensity dependence of the quantum yield of triplet excitons under high-density conditions, triplet excitons were mainly generated through fission from highly excited singlet states populated by singlet-singlet exciton annihilation. We estimated that 30% of the highly excited states underwent fission.

Detecting and modelling delayed density-dependence in abundance time series of a small mammal (Didelphis aurita)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brigatti, E.; Vieira, M. V.; Kajin, M.; Almeida, P. J. A. L.; de Menezes, M. A.; Cerqueira, R.

2016-02-01

We study the population size time series of a Neotropical small mammal with the intent of detecting and modelling population regulation processes generated by density-dependent factors and their possible delayed effects. The application of analysis tools based on principles of statistical generality are nowadays a common practice for describing these phenomena, but, in general, they are more capable of generating clear diagnosis rather than granting valuable modelling. For this reason, in our approach, we detect the principal temporal structures on the bases of different correlation measures, and from these results we build an ad-hoc minimalist autoregressive model that incorporates the main drivers of the dynamics. Surprisingly our model is capable of reproducing very well the time patterns of the empirical series and, for the first time, clearly outlines the importance of the time of attaining sexual maturity as a central temporal scale for the dynamics of this species. In fact, an important advantage of this analysis scheme is that all the model parameters are directly biologically interpretable and potentially measurable, allowing a consistency check between model outputs and independent measurements.

Modeling the impact of the indigenous microbial population on the maximum population density of Salmonella on alfalfa.

PubMed

Rijgersberg, Hajo; Franz, Eelco; Nierop Groot, Masja; Tromp, Seth-Oscar

2013-07-01

Within a microbial risk assessment framework, modeling the maximum population density (MPD) of a pathogenic microorganism is important but often not considered. This paper describes a model predicting the MPD of Salmonella on alfalfa as a function of the initial contamination level, the total count of the indigenous microbial population, the maximum pathogen growth rate and the maximum population density of the indigenous microbial population. The model is parameterized by experimental data describing growth of Salmonella on sprouting alfalfa seeds at inoculum size, native microbial load and Pseudomonas fluorescens 2-79. The obtained model fits well to the experimental data, with standard errors less than ten percent of the fitted average values. The results show that the MPD of Salmonella is not only dictated by performance characteristics of Salmonella but depends on the characteristics of the indigenous microbial population like total number of cells and its growth rate. The model can improve the predictions of microbiological growth in quantitative microbial risk assessments. Using this model, the effects of preventive measures to reduce pathogenic load and a concurrent effect on the background population can be better evaluated. If competing microorganisms are more sensitive to a particular decontamination method, a pathogenic microorganism may grow faster and reach a higher level. More knowledge regarding the effect of the indigenous microbial population (size, diversity, composition) of food products on pathogen dynamics is needed in order to make adequate predictions of pathogen dynamics on various food products.

Effective size of density-dependent two-sex populations: the effect of mating systems.

PubMed

Myhre, A M; Engen, S; SAEther, B-E

2017-08-01

Density dependence in vital rates is a key feature affecting temporal fluctuations of natural populations. This has important implications for the rate of random genetic drift. Mating systems also greatly affect effective population sizes, but knowledge of how mating system and density regulation interact to affect random genetic drift is poor. Using theoretical models and simulations, we compare N e in short-lived, density-dependent animal populations with different mating systems. We study the impact of a fluctuating, density-dependent sex ratio and consider both a stable and a fluctuating environment. We find a negative relationship between annual N e /N and adult population size N due to density dependence, suggesting that loss of genetic variation is reduced at small densities. The magnitude of this decrease was affected by mating system and life history. A male-biased, density-dependent sex ratio reduces the rate of genetic drift compared to an equal, density-independent sex ratio, but a stochastic change towards male bias reduces the N e /N ratio. Environmental stochasticity amplifies temporal fluctuations in population size and is thus vital to consider in estimation of effective population sizes over longer time periods. Our results on the reduced loss of genetic variation at small densities, particularly in polygamous populations, indicate that density regulation may facilitate adaptive evolution at small population sizes. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

The impact of rapid evolution on population dynamics in the wild: experimental test of eco-evolutionary dynamics.

PubMed

Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Hare, J Daniel

2011-11-01

Rapid evolution challenges the assumption that evolution is too slow to impact short-term ecological dynamics. This insight motivates the study of 'Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics' or how evolution and ecological processes reciprocally interact on short time scales. We tested how rapid evolution impacts concurrent population dynamics using an aphid (Myzus persicae) and an undomesticated host (Hirschfeldia incana) in replicated wild populations. We manipulated evolvability by creating non-evolving (single clone) and potentially evolving (two-clone) aphid populations that contained genetic variation in intrinsic growth rate. We observed significant evolution in two-clone populations whether or not they were exposed to predators and competitors. Evolving populations grew up to 42% faster and attained up to 67% higher density, compared with non-evolving control populations but only in treatments exposed to competitors and predators. Increased density also correlates with relative fitness of competing clones suggesting a full eco-evolutionary dynamic cycle defined as reciprocal interactions between evolution and density. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Population density and phenotypic attributes influence the level of nematode parasitism in roe deer.

PubMed

Body, Guillaume; Ferté, Hubert; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Delorme, Daniel; Klein, François; Gilot-Fromont, Emmanuelle

2011-11-01

The impact of parasites on population dynamics is well documented, but less is known on how host population density affects parasite spread. This relationship is difficult to assess because of confounding effects of social structure, population density, and environmental conditions that lead to biased among-population comparisons. Here, we analyzed the infestation by two groups of nematodes (gastro-intestinal (GI) strongyles and Trichuris) in the roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) population of Trois Fontaines (France) between 1997 and 2007. During this period, we experimentally manipulated population density through changes in removals. Using measures collected on 297 individuals, we quantified the impact of density on parasite spread after taking into account possible influences of date, age, sex, body mass, and weather conditions. The prevalence and abundance of eggs of both parasites in females were positively related to roe deer density, except Trichuris in adult females. We also found a negative relationship between parasitism and body mass, and strong age and sex-dependent patterns of parasitism. Prime-age adults were less often parasitized and had lower fecal egg counts than fawns or old individuals, and males were more heavily and more often infected than females. Trichuris parasites were not affected by weather, whereas GI strongyles were less present after dry and hot summers. In the range of observed densities, the observed effect of density likely involves a variation of the exposure rate, as opposed to variation in host susceptibility.

Evolution of complex density-dependent dispersal strategies.

PubMed

Parvinen, Kalle; Seppänen, Anne; Nagy, John D

2012-11-01

The question of how dispersal behavior is adaptive and how it responds to changes in selection pressure is more relevant than ever, as anthropogenic habitat alteration and climate change accelerate around the world. In metapopulation models where local populations are large, and thus local population size is measured in densities, density-dependent dispersal is expected to evolve to a single-threshold strategy, in which individuals stay in patches with local population density smaller than a threshold value and move immediately away from patches with local population density larger than the threshold. Fragmentation tends to convert continuous populations into metapopulations and also to decrease local population sizes. Therefore we analyze a metapopulation model, where each patch can support only a relatively small local population and thus experience demographic stochasticity. We investigated the evolution of density-dependent dispersal, emigration and immigration, in two scenarios: adult and natal dispersal. We show that density-dependent emigration can also evolve to a nonmonotone, "triple-threshold" strategy. This interesting phenomenon results from an interplay between the direct and indirect benefits of dispersal and the costs of dispersal. We also found that, compared to juveniles, dispersing adults may benefit more from density-dependent vs. density-independent dispersal strategies.

Hypoxic areas, density-dependence and food limitation drive the body condition of a heavily exploited marine fish predator

PubMed Central

Käll, Filip; Hansson, Martin; Baranova, Tatjana; Karlsson, Olle; Lundström, Karl; Neuenfeldt, Stefan; Hjelm, Joakim

2016-01-01

Investigating the factors regulating fish condition is crucial in ecology and the management of exploited fish populations. The body condition of cod (Gadus morhua) in the Baltic Sea has dramatically decreased during the past two decades, with large implications for the fishery relying on this resource. Here, we statistically investigated the potential drivers of the Baltic cod condition during the past 40 years using newly compiled fishery-independent biological data and hydrological observations. We evidenced a combination of different factors operating before and after the ecological regime shift that occurred in the Baltic Sea in the early 1990s. The changes in cod condition related to feeding opportunities, driven either by density-dependence or food limitation, along the whole period investigated and to the fivefold increase in the extent of hypoxic areas in the most recent 20 years. Hypoxic areas can act on cod condition through different mechanisms related directly to species physiology, or indirectly to behaviour and trophic interactions. Our analyses found statistical evidence for an effect of the hypoxia-induced habitat compression on cod condition possibly operating via crowding and density-dependent processes. These results furnish novel insights into the population dynamics of Baltic Sea cod that can aid the management of this currently threatened population. PMID:27853557

The spatial dynamics of ecosystem engineers.

PubMed

Franco, Caroline; Fontanari, José F

2017-10-01

The changes on abiotic features of ecosystems have rarely been taken into account by population dynamics models, which typically focus on trophic and competitive interactions between species. However, understanding the population dynamics of organisms that must modify their habitats in order to survive, the so-called ecosystem engineers, requires the explicit incorporation of abiotic interactions in the models. Here we study a model of ecosystem engineers that is discrete both in space and time, and where the engineers and their habitats are arranged in patches fixed to the sites of regular lattices. The growth of the engineer population is modeled by Ricker equation with a density-dependent carrying capacity that is given by the number of modified habitats. A diffusive dispersal stage ensures that a fraction of the engineers move from their birth patches to neighboring patches. We find that dispersal influences the metapopulation dynamics only in the case that the local or single-patch dynamics exhibit chaotic behavior. In that case, it can suppress the chaotic behavior and avoid extinctions in the regime of large intrinsic growth rate of the population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spin-density fluctuations and the fluctuation-dissipation theorem in 3 d ferromagnetic metals

DOE PAGES

Wysocki, Alex L.; Valmispild, V. N.; Kutepov, A.; ...

2017-11-15

Spatial and time scales of spin-density fluctuations (SDFs) were analyzed in 3d ferromagnets using ab initio linear-response calculations of complete wave-vector and energy dependence of the dynamic spin susceptibility tensor. We demonstrate that SDFs are spread continuously over the entire Brillouin zone and while the majority of them reside within the 3d bandwidth, a significant amount comes from much higher energies. A validity of the adiabatic approximation in spin dynamics is discussed. The SDF spectrum is shown to have two main constituents: a minor low-energy spin-wave contribution and a much larger high-energy component from more localized excitations. Furthermore, using themore » fluctuation-dissipation theorem, the on-site spin correlator and the related effective fluctuating moment were properly evaluated and their universal dependence on the 3d band population is further discussed.« less

Spin-density fluctuations and the fluctuation-dissipation theorem in 3 d ferromagnetic metals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wysocki, Alex L.; Valmispild, V. N.; Kutepov, A.

Spatial and time scales of spin-density fluctuations (SDFs) were analyzed in 3d ferromagnets using ab initio linear-response calculations of complete wave-vector and energy dependence of the dynamic spin susceptibility tensor. We demonstrate that SDFs are spread continuously over the entire Brillouin zone and while the majority of them reside within the 3d bandwidth, a significant amount comes from much higher energies. A validity of the adiabatic approximation in spin dynamics is discussed. The SDF spectrum is shown to have two main constituents: a minor low-energy spin-wave contribution and a much larger high-energy component from more localized excitations. Furthermore, using themore » fluctuation-dissipation theorem, the on-site spin correlator and the related effective fluctuating moment were properly evaluated and their universal dependence on the 3d band population is further discussed.« less

The Global Statistical Response of the Outer Radiation Belt During Geomagnetic Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, K. R.; Watt, C. E. J.; Mann, I. R.; Jonathan Rae, I.; Sibeck, D. G.; Boyd, A. J.; Forsyth, C. F.; Turner, D. L.; Claudepierre, S. G.; Baker, D. N.; Spence, H. E.; Reeves, G. D.; Blake, J. B.; Fennell, J.

2018-05-01

Using the total radiation belt electron content calculated from Van Allen Probe phase space density, the time-dependent and global response of the outer radiation belt during storms is statistically studied. Using phase space density reduces the impacts of adiabatic changes in the main phase, allowing a separation of adiabatic and nonadiabatic effects and revealing a clear modality and repeatable sequence of events in storm time radiation belt electron dynamics. This sequence exhibits an important first adiabatic invariant (μ)-dependent behavior in the seed (150 MeV/G), relativistic (1,000 MeV/G), and ultrarelativistic (4,000 MeV/G) populations. The outer radiation belt statistically shows an initial phase dominated by loss followed by a second phase of rapid acceleration, while the seed population shows little loss and immediate enhancement. The time sequence of the transition to the acceleration is also strongly μ dependent and occurs at low μ first, appearing to be repeatable from storm to storm.

Using binary statistics in Taurus-Auriga to distinguish between brown dwarf formation processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marks, M.; Martín, E. L.; Béjar, V. J. S.; Lodieu, N.; Kroupa, P.; Manjavacas, E.; Thies, I.; Rebolo López, R.; Velasco, S.

2017-08-01

Context. One of the key questions of the star formation problem is whether brown dwarfs (BDs) form in the manner of stars directly from the gravitational collapse of a molecular cloud core (star-like) or whether BDs and some very low-mass stars (VLMSs) constitute a separate population that forms alongside stars comparable to the population of planets, for example through circumstellar disk (peripheral) fragmentation. Aims: For young stars in Taurus-Auriga the binary fraction has been shown to be large with little dependence on primary mass above ≈ 0.2 M⊙, while for BDs the binary fraction is < 10%. Here we investigate a case in which BDs in Taurus formed dominantly, but not exclusively, through peripheral fragmentation, which naturally results in small binary fractions. The decline of the binary frequency in the transition region between star-like formation and peripheral formation is modelled. Methods: We employed a dynamical population synthesis model in which stellar binary formation is universal with a large binary fraction close to unity. Peripheral objects form separately in circumstellar disks with a distinctive initial mass function (IMF), their own orbital parameter distributions for binaries, and small binary fractions, according to observations and expectations from smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) and grid-based computations. A small amount of dynamical processing of the stellar component was accounted for as appropriate for the low-density Taurus-Auriga embedded clusters. Results: The binary fraction declines strongly in the transition region between star-like and peripheral formation, exhibiting characteristic features. The location of these features and the steepness of this trend depend on the mass limits for star-like and peripheral formation. Such a trend might be unique to low density regions, such as Taurus, which host binary populations that are largely unprocessed dynamically in which the binary fraction is large for stars down to M-dwarfs and small for BDs. Conclusions: The existence of a strong decline in the binary fraction - primary mass diagram will become verifiable in future surveys on BD and VLMS binarity in the Taurus-Auriga star-forming region. The binary fraction - primary mass diagram is a diagnostic of the (non-)continuity of star formation along the mass scale, the separateness of the stellar and BD populations, and the dominant formation channel for BDs and BD binaries in regions of low stellar density hosting dynamically unprocessed populations.

Allee effect and the uncertainty of population recovery.

PubMed

Kuparinen, Anna; Keith, David M; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

2014-06-01

Recovery of depleted populations is fundamentally important for conservation biology and sustainable resource harvesting. At low abundance, population growth rate, a primary determinant of population recovery, is generally assumed to be relatively fast because competition is low (i.e., negative density dependence). But population growth can be limited in small populations by an Allee effect. This is particularly relevant for collapsed populations or species that have not recovered despite large reductions in, or elimination of, threats. We investigated how an Allee effect can influence the dynamics of recovery. We used Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) as the study organism and an empirically quantified Allee effect for the species to parameterize our simulations. We simulated recovery through an individual-based mechanistic simulation model and then compared recovery among scenarios incorporating an Allee effect, negative density dependence, and an intermediate scenario. Although an Allee effect significantly slowed recovery, such that population increase could be negligible even after 100 years or more, it also made the time required for biomass rebuilding much less predictable. Our finding that an Allee effect greatly increased the uncertainty in recovery time frames provides an empirically based explanation for why the removal of threat does not always result in the recovery of depleted populations or species. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Consistent individual differences and population plasticity in network-derived sociality: An experimental manipulation of density in a gregarious ungulate

PubMed Central

O’Brien, Paul P.; Vander Wal, Eric

2018-01-01

In many taxa, individual social traits appear to be consistent across time and context, thus meeting the criteria for animal personality. How these differences are maintained in response to changes in population density is unknown, particularly in large mammals, such as ungulates. Using a behavioral reaction norm (BRN) framework, we examined how among- and within-individual variation in social connectedness, measured using social network analyses, change as a function of population density. We studied a captive herd of elk (Cervus canadensis) separated into a group of male elk and a group of female elk. Males and females were exposed to three different density treatments and we recorded social associations between individuals with proximity-detecting radio-collars fitted to elk. We constructed social networks using dyadic association data and calculated three social network metrics reflective of social connectedness: eigenvector centrality, graph strength, and degree. Elk exhibited consistent individual differences in social connectedness across densities; however, they showed little individual variation in their response to changes in density, i.e., individuals oftentimes responded plastically, but in the same manner to changes in density. Female elk had highest connectedness at an intermediate density. In contrast, male elk increased connectedness with increasing density. Whereas this may suggest that the benefits of social connectedness outweigh the costs of increased competition at higher density for males, females appear to exhibit a threshold in social benefits (e.g. predator detection and forage information). Our study illustrates the importance of viewing social connectedness as a density-dependent trait, particularly in the context of plasticity. Moreover, we highlight the need to revisit our understanding of density dependence as a population-level phenomenon by accounting for consistent individual differences not only in social connectedness, but likely in other ecological processes (e.g., predator-prey dynamics, mate choice, disease transfer). PMID:29494640

Density-Dependent Effects on Group Size Are Sex-Specific in a Gregarious Ungulate

PubMed Central

Vander Wal, Eric; van Beest, Floris M.; Brook, Ryan K.

2013-01-01

Density dependence can have marked effects on social behaviors such as group size. We tested whether changes in population density of a large herbivore (elk, Cervus canadensis) affected sex-specific group size and whether the response was density- or frequency-dependent. We quantified the probability and strength of changes in group sizes and dispersion as population density changed for each sex. We used group size data from a population of elk in Manitoba, Canada, that was experimentally reduced from 1.20 to 0.67 elk/km2 between 2002 and 2009. Our results indicated that functional responses of group size to population density are sex-specific. Females showed a positive density-dependent response in group size at population densities ≥0.70 elk/km2 and we found evidence for a minimum group size at population density ≤0.70 elk/km2. Changes in male group size were also density-dependent; however, the strength of the relationship was lower than for females. Density dependence in male group size was predominantly a result of fusion of solitary males into larger groups, rather than fusion among existing groups. Our study revealed that density affects group size of a large herbivore differently between males and females, which has important implications for the benefits e.g., alleviating predation risk, and costs of social behaviors e.g., competition for resources and mates, and intra-specific pathogen transmission. PMID:23326502

Density-dependent natural selection and trade-offs in life history traits.

PubMed

Mueller, L D; Guo, P Z; Ayala, F J

1991-07-26

Theories of density-dependent natural selection state that at extreme population densities evolution produces alternative life histories due to trade-offs. The trade-offs are presumed to arise because those genotypes with highest fitness at high population densities will not also have high fitness at low density and vice-versa. These predictions were tested by taking samples from six populations of Drosophila melanogaster kept at low population densities (r-populations) for nearly 200 generations and placing them in crowded cultures (K-populations). After 25 generations in the crowded cultures, the derived K-populations showed growth rate and productivity that at high densities were elevated relative to the controls, but at low density were depressed.

Disease-induced mortality in density-dependent discrete-time S-I-S epidemic models.

PubMed

Franke, John E; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

2008-12-01

The dynamics of simple discrete-time epidemic models without disease-induced mortality are typically characterized by global transcritical bifurcation. We prove that in corresponding models with disease-induced mortality a tiny number of infectious individuals can drive an otherwise persistent population to extinction. Our model with disease-induced mortality supports multiple attractors. In addition, we use a Ricker recruitment function in an SIS model and obtained a three component discrete Hopf (Neimark-Sacker) cycle attractor coexisting with a fixed point attractor. The basin boundaries of the coexisting attractors are fractal in nature, and the example exhibits sensitive dependence of the long-term disease dynamics on initial conditions. Furthermore, we show that in contrast to corresponding models without disease-induced mortality, the disease-free state dynamics do not drive the disease dynamics.

Colony Expansion of Socially Motile Myxococcus xanthus Cells Is Driven by Growth, Motility, and Exopolysaccharide Production

PubMed Central

Patra, Pintu; Kissoon, Kimberley; Cornejo, Isabel; Kaplan, Heidi B.; Igoshin, Oleg A.

2016-01-01

Myxococcus xanthus, a model organism for studies of multicellular behavior in bacteria, moves exclusively on solid surfaces using two distinct but coordinated motility mechanisms. One of these, social (S) motility is powered by the extension and retraction of type IV pili and requires the presence of exopolysaccharides (EPS) produced by neighboring cells. As a result, S motility requires close cell-to-cell proximity and isolated cells do not translocate. Previous studies measuring S motility by observing the colony expansion of cells deposited on agar have shown that the expansion rate increases with initial cell density, but the biophysical mechanisms involved remain largely unknown. To understand the dynamics of S motility-driven colony expansion, we developed a reaction-diffusion model describing the effects of cell density, EPS deposition and nutrient exposure on the expansion rate. Our results show that at steady state the population expands as a traveling wave with a speed determined by the interplay of cell motility and growth, a well-known characteristic of Fisher’s equation. The model explains the density-dependence of the colony expansion by demonstrating the presence of a lag phase–a transient period of very slow expansion with a duration dependent on the initial cell density. We propose that at a low initial density, more time is required for the cells to accumulate enough EPS to activate S-motility resulting in a longer lag period. Furthermore, our model makes the novel prediction that following the lag phase the population expands at a constant rate independent of the cell density. These predictions were confirmed by S motility experiments capturing long-term expansion dynamics. PMID:27362260

Colony Expansion of Socially Motile Myxococcus xanthus Cells Is Driven by Growth, Motility, and Exopolysaccharide Production.

PubMed

Patra, Pintu; Kissoon, Kimberley; Cornejo, Isabel; Kaplan, Heidi B; Igoshin, Oleg A

2016-06-01

Myxococcus xanthus, a model organism for studies of multicellular behavior in bacteria, moves exclusively on solid surfaces using two distinct but coordinated motility mechanisms. One of these, social (S) motility is powered by the extension and retraction of type IV pili and requires the presence of exopolysaccharides (EPS) produced by neighboring cells. As a result, S motility requires close cell-to-cell proximity and isolated cells do not translocate. Previous studies measuring S motility by observing the colony expansion of cells deposited on agar have shown that the expansion rate increases with initial cell density, but the biophysical mechanisms involved remain largely unknown. To understand the dynamics of S motility-driven colony expansion, we developed a reaction-diffusion model describing the effects of cell density, EPS deposition and nutrient exposure on the expansion rate. Our results show that at steady state the population expands as a traveling wave with a speed determined by the interplay of cell motility and growth, a well-known characteristic of Fisher's equation. The model explains the density-dependence of the colony expansion by demonstrating the presence of a lag phase-a transient period of very slow expansion with a duration dependent on the initial cell density. We propose that at a low initial density, more time is required for the cells to accumulate enough EPS to activate S-motility resulting in a longer lag period. Furthermore, our model makes the novel prediction that following the lag phase the population expands at a constant rate independent of the cell density. These predictions were confirmed by S motility experiments capturing long-term expansion dynamics.

Effects of an invasive plant on population dynamics in toads.

PubMed

Greenberg, Daniel A; Green, David M

2013-10-01

When populations decline in response to unfavorable environmental change, the dynamics of their population growth shift. In populations that normally exhibit high levels of variation in recruitment and abundance, as do many amphibians, declines may be difficult to identify from natural fluctuations in abundance. However, the onset of declines may be evident from changes in population growth rate in sufficiently long time series of population data. With data from 23 years of study of a population of Fowler's toad (Anaxyrus [ = Bufo] fowleri) at Long Point, Ontario (1989-2011), we sought to identify such a shift in dynamics. We tested for trends in abundance to detect a change point in population dynamics and then tested among competing population models to identify associated intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The most informative models of population growth included terms for toad abundance and the extent of an invasive marsh plant, the common reed (Phragmites australis), throughout the toads' marshland breeding areas. Our results showed density-dependent growth in the toad population from 1989 through 2002. After 2002, however, we found progressive population decline in the toads associated with the spread of common reeds and consequent loss of toad breeding habitat. This resulted in reduced recruitment and population growth despite the lack of significant loss of adult habitat. Our results underscore the value of using long-term time series to identify shifts in population dynamics coincident with the advent of population decline. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Olive Fruit Fly (Bactrocera oleae) Population Dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean: Influence of Exogenous Uncertainty on a Monophagous Frugivorous Insect

PubMed Central

Ordano, Mariano; Engelhard, Izhar; Rempoulakis, Polychronis; Nemny-Lavy, Esther; Blum, Moshe; Yasin, Sami; Lensky, Itamar M.; Papadopoulos, Nikos T.; Nestel, David

2015-01-01

Despite of the economic importance of the olive fly (Bactrocera oleae) and the large amount of biological and ecological studies on the insect, the factors driving its population dynamics (i.e., population persistence and regulation) had not been analytically investigated until the present study. Specifically, our study investigated the autoregressive process of the olive fly populations, and the joint role of intrinsic and extrinsic factors molding the population dynamics of the insect. Accounting for endogenous dynamics and the influences of exogenous factors such as olive grove temperature, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the presence of potential host fruit, we modeled olive fly populations in five locations in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Our models indicate that the rate of population change is mainly shaped by first and higher order non-monotonic, endogenous dynamics (i.e., density-dependent population feedback). The olive grove temperature was the main exogenous driver, while the North Atlantic Oscillation and fruit availability acted as significant exogenous factors in one of the five populations. Seasonal influences were also relevant for three of the populations. In spite of exogenous effects, the rate of population change was fairly stable along time. We propose that a special reproductive mechanism, such as reproductive quiescence, allows populations of monophagous fruit flies such as the olive fly to remain stable. Further, we discuss how weather factors could impinge constraints on the population dynamics at the local level. Particularly, local temperature dynamics could provide forecasting cues for management guidelines. Jointly, our results advocate for establishing monitoring programs and for a major focus of research on the relationship between life history traits and populations dynamics. PMID:26010332

An Emerging Allee Effect Is Critical for Tumor Initiation and Persistence

PubMed Central

Böttger, Katrin; Hatzikirou, Haralambos; Voss-Böhme, Anja; Cavalcanti-Adam, Elisabetta Ada; Herrero, Miguel A.; Deutsch, Andreas

2015-01-01

Tumor cells develop different strategies to cope with changing microenvironmental conditions. A prominent example is the adaptive phenotypic switching between cell migration and proliferation. While it has been shown that the migration-proliferation plasticity influences tumor spread, it remains unclear how this particular phenotypic plasticity affects overall tumor growth, in particular initiation and persistence. To address this problem, we formulate and study a mathematical model of spatio-temporal tumor dynamics which incorporates the microenvironmental influence through a local cell density dependence. Our analysis reveals that two dynamic regimes can be distinguished. If cell motility is allowed to increase with local cell density, any tumor cell population will persist in time, irrespective of its initial size. On the contrary, if cell motility is assumed to decrease with respect to local cell density, any tumor population below a certain size threshold will eventually extinguish, a fact usually termed as Allee effect in ecology. These results suggest that strategies aimed at modulating migration are worth to be explored as alternatives to those mainly focused at keeping tumor proliferation under control. PMID:26335202

Dying like rabbits: general determinants of spatio-temporal variability in survival.

PubMed

Tablado, Zulima; Revilla, Eloy; Palomares, Francisco

2012-01-01

1. Identifying general patterns of how and why survival rates vary across space and time is necessary to truly understand population dynamics of a species. However, this is not an easy task given the complexity and interactions of processes involved, and the interpopulation differences in main survival determinants. 2. Here, using European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) as a model and information from local studies, we investigated whether we could make inferences about trends and drivers of survival of a species that are generalizable to large spatio-temporal scales. To do this, we first focused on overall survival and then examined cause-specific mortalities, mainly predation and diseases, which may lead to those patterns. 3. Our results show that within the large-scale variability in rabbit survival, there exist general patterns that are explained by the integration of factors previously known to be important at the local level (i.e. age, climate, diseases, predation or density dependence). We found that both inter- and intrastudy survival rates increased in magnitude and decreased in variability as rabbits grow old, although this tendency was less pronounced in populations with epidemic diseases. Some causes leading to these higher mortalities in young rabbits could be the stronger effect of rainfall at those ages, as well as, other death sources like malnutrition or infanticide. 4. Predation is also greater for newborns and juveniles, especially in population without diseases. Apart from the effect of diseases, predation patterns also depended on factors, such as, density, season, and type and density of predators. Finally, we observed that infectious diseases also showed general relationships with climate, breeding (i.e. new susceptible rabbits) and age, although the association type varied between myxomatosis and rabbit haemorrhagic disease. 5. In conclusion, large-scale patterns of spatio-temporal variability in rabbit survival emerge from the combination of different factors that interrelate both directly and through density dependence. This highlights the importance of performing more comprehensive studies to reveal combined effects and complex relationships that help us to better understand the mechanisms underlying population dynamics. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Local control theory using trajectory surface hopping and linear-response time-dependent density functional theory.

PubMed

Curchod, Basile F E; Penfold, Thomas J; Rothlisberger, Ursula; Tavernelli, Ivano

2013-01-01

The implementation of local control theory using nonadiabatic molecular dynamics within the framework of linear-response time-dependent density functional theory is discussed. The method is applied to study the photoexcitation of lithium fluoride, for which we demonstrate that this approach can efficiently generate a pulse, on-the-fly, able to control the population transfer between two selected electronic states. Analysis of the computed control pulse yields insights into the photophysics of the process identifying the relevant frequencies associated to the curvature of the initial and final state potential energy curves and their energy differences. The limitations inherent to the use of the trajectory surface hopping approach are also discussed.

Experimental evidence that density dependence strongly influences plant invasions through fragmented landscapes.

PubMed

Williams, Jennifer L; Levine, Jonathan M

2018-04-01

Populations of range expanding species encounter patches of both favorable and unfavorable habitat as they spread across landscapes. Theory shows that increasing patchiness slows the spread of populations modeled with continuously varying population density when dispersal is not influence by the environment or individual behavior. However, as is found in uniformly favorable landscapes, spread remains driven by fecundity and dispersal from low density individuals at the invasion front. In contrast, when modeled populations are composed of discrete individuals, patchiness causes populations to build up to high density before dispersing past unsuitable habitat, introducing an important influence of density dependence on spread velocity. To test the hypothesized interaction between habitat patchiness and density dependence, we simultaneously manipulated these factors in a greenhouse system of annual plants spreading through replicated experimental landscapes. We found that increasing the size of gaps and amplifying the strength of density dependence both slowed spread velocity, but contrary to predictions, the effect of amplified density dependence was similar across all landscape types. Our results demonstrate that the discrete nature of individuals in spreading populations has a strong influence on how both landscape patchiness and density dependence influence spread through demographic and dispersal stochasticity. Both finiteness and landscape structure should be critical components to theoretical predictions of future spread for range expanding native species or invasive species colonizing new habitat. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Density dependence in a recovering osprey population: demographic and behavioural processes.

PubMed

Bretagnolle, V; Mougeot, F; Thibault, J-C

2008-09-01

1. Understanding how density-dependent and independent processes influence demographic parameters, and hence regulate population size, is fundamental within population ecology. We investigated density dependence in growth rate and fecundity in a recovering population of a semicolonial raptor, the osprey Pandion haliaetus [Linnaeus, 1758], using 31 years of count and demographic data in Corsica. 2. The study population increased from three pairs in 1974 to an average of 22 pairs in the late 1990s, with two distinct phases during the recovery (increase followed by stability) and contrasted trends in breeding parameters in each phase. 3. We show density dependence in population growth rate in the second phase, indicating that the stabilized population was regulated. We also show density dependence in productivity (fledging success between years and hatching success within years). 4. Using long-term data on behavioural interactions at nest sites, and on diet and fish provisioning rate, we evaluated two possible mechanisms of density dependence in productivity, food depletion and behavioural interference. 5. As density increased, both provisioning rate and the size of prey increased, contrary to predictions of a food-depletion mechanism. In the time series, a reduction in fledging success coincided with an increase in the number of non-breeders. Hatching success decreased with increasing local density and frequency of interactions with conspecifics, suggesting that behavioural interference was influencing hatching success. 6. Our study shows that, taking into account the role of non-breeders, in particular in species or populations where there are many floaters and where competition for nest sites is intense, can improve our understanding of density-dependent processes and help conservation actions.

Spatial patterns and biodiversity in off-lattice simulations of a cyclic three-species Lotka-Volterra model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avelino, P. P.; Bazeia, D.; Losano, L.; Menezes, J.; de Oliveira, B. F.

2018-02-01

Stochastic simulations of cyclic three-species spatial predator-prey models are usually performed in square lattices with nearest-neighbour interactions starting from random initial conditions. In this letter we describe the results of off-lattice Lotka-Volterra stochastic simulations, showing that the emergence of spiral patterns does occur for sufficiently high values of the (conserved) total density of individuals. We also investigate the dynamics in our simulations, finding an empirical relation characterizing the dependence of the characteristic peak frequency and amplitude on the total density. Finally, we study the impact of the total density on the extinction probability, showing how a low population density may jeopardize biodiversity.

Range expansion promotes cooperation in an experimental microbial metapopulation

PubMed Central

Datta, Manoshi Sen; Korolev, Kirill S.; Cvijovic, Ivana; Dudley, Carmel; Gore, Jeff

2013-01-01

Natural populations throughout the tree of life undergo range expansions in response to changes in the environment. Recent theoretical work suggests that range expansions can have a strong effect on evolution, even leading to the fixation of deleterious alleles that would normally be outcompeted in the absence of migration. However, little is known about how range expansions might influence alleles under frequency- or density-dependent selection. Moreover, there is very little experimental evidence to complement existing theory, since expanding populations are difficult to study in the natural environment. In this study, we have used a yeast experimental system to explore the effect of range expansions on the maintenance of cooperative behaviors, which commonly display frequency- and density-dependent selection and are widespread in nature. We found that range expansions favor the maintenance of cooperation in two ways: (i) through the enrichment of cooperators at the front of the expanding population and (ii) by allowing cooperators to “outrun” an invading wave of defectors. In this system, cooperation is enhanced through the coupling of population ecology and evolutionary dynamics in expanding populations, thus providing experimental evidence for a unique mechanism through which cooperative behaviors could be maintained in nature. PMID:23569263

Density Dependent Functional Forms Drive Compensation in Populations Exposed to Stressors

EPA Science Inventory

The interaction between density dependence (DD) and environmental stressors can result in a compensatory or synergistic response in population growth, and population models that use density-independent demographic rates or generic DD functions may be introducing bias into managem...

Recovery of Durvillaea antarctica (Durvilleales) inside and outside Las Cruces Marine Reserve, Chile.

PubMed

Castilla, J C; Campo, M A; Bustamante, R H

2007-07-01

We present the results for over two decades of monitoring on intertidal food-gatherers and the population of the low rocky shore dweller kelp Durvillaea antarctica, a short-distance disperser, inside and outside the no-take marine reserve, Estacion Costera de Investigaciones Marinas (ECIM), at Las Cruces, central Chile. It was hypothesized that protection of an initially extremely depleted population would recover by recolonizing first the no-take area and then adjacent non-protected (exploited) areas. We found that recovery of D. antarctica occurred slowly inside ECIM, with increase in density and biomass, of up to three orders of magnitude as compared to an adjacent non-protected area, which showed approximately 2-yr delay. These results suggest that the kelp population inside ECIM was likely regulated via intraspecific competition, which did not occur outside. Results showed no evidence for juvenile vs. adult density dependence other than a weak relationship for the central area of ECIM. These findings also suggest that the population recovery and cross-boundary seeding subsides affected the population dynamics. Understanding these dynamics may enhance management and conservation policies. Our work highlights the critical value of baseline and long-term comparative studies in marine no-take protected and non-protected areas for understanding how population processes respond to human and conservation practices.

Past and future perspectives on mathematical models of tick-borne pathogens.

PubMed

Norman, R A; Worton, A J; Gilbert, L

2016-06-01

Ticks are vectors of pathogens which are important both with respect to human health and economically. They have a complex life cycle requiring several blood meals throughout their life. These blood meals take place on different individual hosts and potentially on different host species. Their life cycle is also dependent on environmental conditions such as the temperature and habitat type. Mathematical models have been used for the more than 30 years to help us understand how tick dynamics are dependent on these environmental factors and host availability. In this paper, we review models of tick dynamics and summarize the main results. This summary is split into two parts, one which looks at tick dynamics and one which looks at tick-borne pathogens. In general, the models of tick dynamics are used to determine when the peak in tick densities is likely to occur in the year and how that changes with environmental conditions. The models of tick-borne pathogens focus more on the conditions under which the pathogen can persist and how host population densities might be manipulated to control these pathogens. In the final section of the paper, we identify gaps in the current knowledge and future modelling approaches. These include spatial models linked to environmental information and Geographic Information System maps, and development of new modelling techniques which model tick densities per host more explicitly.

Determining the functional form of density dependence: deductive approaches for consumer-resource systems having a single resource.

PubMed

Abrams, Peter A

2009-09-01

Consumer-resource models are used to deduce the functional form of density dependence in the consumer population. A general approach to determining the form of consumer density dependence is proposed; this involves determining the equilibrium (or average) population size for a series of different harvest rates. The relationship between a consumer's mortality and its equilibrium population size is explored for several one-consumer/one-resource models. The shape of density dependence in the resource and the shape of the numerical and functional responses all tend to be "inherited" by the consumer's density dependence. Consumer-resource models suggest that density dependence will very often have both concave and convex segments, something that is impossible under the commonly used theta-logistic model. A range of consumer-resource models predicts that consumer population size often declines at a decelerating rate with mortality at low mortality rates, is insensitive to or increases with mortality over a wide range of intermediate mortalities, and declines at a rapidly accelerating rate with increased mortality when mortality is high. This has important implications for management and conservation of natural populations.

Multi-event capture–recapture modeling of host–pathogen dynamics among European rabbit populations exposed to myxoma and Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease Viruses: common and heterogeneous patterns

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Host–pathogen epidemiological processes are often unclear due both to their complexity and over-simplistic approaches used to quantify them. We applied a multi-event capture–recapture procedure on two years of data from three rabbit populations to test hypotheses about the effects on survival of, and the dynamics of host immunity to, both myxoma virus and Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease Virus (MV and RHDV). Although the populations shared the same climatic and management conditions, MV and RHDV dynamics varied greatly among them; MV and RHDV seroprevalences were positively related to density in one population, but RHDV seroprevalence was negatively related to density in another. In addition, (i) juvenile survival was most often negatively related to seropositivity, (ii) RHDV seropositives never had considerably higher survival, and (iii) seroconversion to seropositivity was more likely than the reverse. We suggest seropositivity affects survival depending on trade-offs among antibody protection, immunosuppression and virus lethality. Negative effects of seropositivity might be greater on juveniles due to their immature immune system. Also, while RHDV directly affects survival through the hemorrhagic syndrome, MV lack of direct lethal effects means that interactions influencing survival are likely to be more complex. Multi-event modeling allowed us to quantify patterns of host–pathogen dynamics otherwise difficult to discern. Such an approach offers a promising tool to shed light on causative mechanisms. PMID:24708296

Development and application of a density dependent matrix ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Ranging along the Atlantic coast from US Florida to the Maritime Provinces of Canada, the Atlantic killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) is an important and well-studied model organism for understanding the effects of pollutants and other stressors in estuarine and marine ecosystems. Matrix population models are useful tools for ecological risk assessment because they integrate effects across the life cycle, provide a linkage between endpoints observed in the individual and ecological risk to the population as a whole, and project outcomes for many generations in the future. We developed a density dependent matrix population model for Atlantic killifish by modifying a model developed for fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) that has proved to be extremely useful, e.g. to incorporate data from laboratory studies and project effects of endocrine disrupting chemicals. We developed a size-structured model (as opposed to one that is based upon developmental stages or age class structure) so that we could readily incorporate output from a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model, currently under development. Due to a lack of sufficient data to accurately define killifish responses to density dependence, we tested a number of scenarios realistic for other fish species in order to demonstrate the outcome of including this ecologically important factor. We applied the model using published data for killifish exposed to dioxin-like compounds, and compared our results to those using

Competition in size-structured populations: mechanisms inducing cohort formation and population cycles.

PubMed

de Roos, André M; Persson, Lennart

2003-02-01

In this paper we investigate the consequences of size-dependent competition among the individuals of a consumer population by analyzing the dynamic properties of a physiologically structured population model. Only 2 size-classes of individuals are distinguished: juveniles and adults. Juveniles and adults both feed on one and the same resource and hence interact by means of exploitative competition. Juvenile individuals allocate all assimilated energy into development and mature on reaching a fixed developmental threshold. The combination of this fixed threshold and the resource-dependent developmental rate, implies that the juvenile delay between birth and the onset of reproduction may vary in time. Adult individuals allocate all assimilated energy to reproduction. Mortality of both juveniles and adults is assumed to be inversely proportional to the amount of energy assimilated. In this setting we study how the dynamics of the population are influenced by the relative foraging capabilities of juveniles and adults. In line with results that we previously obtained in size-structured consumer-resource models with pulsed reproduction, population cycles primarily occur when either juveniles or adults have a distinct competitive advantage. When adults have a larger per capita feeding rate and are hence competitively superior to juveniles, population oscillations occur that are primarily induced by the fact that the duration of the juvenile period changes with changing food conditions. These cycles do not occur when the juvenile delay is a fixed parameter. When juveniles are competitively superior, two different types of population fluctuations can occur: (1) rapid, low-amplitude fluctuations having a period of half the juvenile delay and (2) slow, large-amplitude fluctuations characterized by a period, which is roughly equal to the juvenile delay. The analysis of simplified versions of the structured model indicates that these two types of oscillations also occur if mortality and/or development is independent of food density, i.e. in a situation with a constant juvenile developmental delay and a constant, food-independent background mortality. Thus, the oscillations that occur when juveniles are more competitive are induced by the juvenile delay per se. When juveniles exert a larger foraging pressure on the shared resource, maturation implies an increase not only in adult density, but also in food density and consequently fecundity. Our analysis suggests that this correlation in time between adult density and fecundity is crucial for the occurrence of population cycles when juveniles are competitively superior.

Evolution of density-dependent movement during experimental range expansions.

PubMed

Fronhofer, E A; Gut, S; Altermatt, F

2017-12-01

Range expansions and biological invasions are prime examples of transient processes that are likely impacted by rapid evolutionary changes. As a spatial process, range expansions are driven by dispersal and movement behaviour. Although it is widely accepted that dispersal and movement may be context-dependent, for instance density-dependent, and best represented by reaction norms, the evolution of density-dependent movement during range expansions has received little experimental attention. We therefore tested current theory predicting the evolution of increased movement at low densities at range margins using highly replicated and controlled range expansion experiments across multiple genotypes of the protist model system Tetrahymena thermophila. Although rare, we found evolutionary changes during range expansions even in the absence of initial standing genetic variation. Range expansions led to the evolution of negatively density-dependent movement at range margins. In addition, we report the evolution of increased intrastrain competitive ability and concurrently decreased population growth rates in range cores. Our findings highlight the importance of understanding movement and dispersal as evolving reaction norms and plastic life-history traits of central relevance for range expansions, biological invasions and the dynamics of spatially structured systems in general. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Partitioning the sources of demographic variation reveals density-dependent nest predation in an island bird population

PubMed Central

Sofaer, Helen R; Sillett, T Scott; Langin, Kathryn M; Morrison, Scott A; Ghalambor, Cameron K

2014-01-01

Ecological factors often shape demography through multiple mechanisms, making it difficult to identify the sources of demographic variation. In particular, conspecific density can influence both the strength of competition and the predation rate, but density-dependent competition has received more attention, particularly among terrestrial vertebrates and in island populations. A better understanding of how both competition and predation contribute to density-dependent variation in fecundity can be gained by partitioning the effects of density on offspring number from its effects on reproductive failure, while also evaluating how biotic and abiotic factors jointly shape demography. We examined the effects of population density and precipitation on fecundity, nest survival, and adult survival in an insular population of orange-crowned warblers (Oreothlypis celata) that breeds at high densities and exhibits a suite of traits suggesting strong intraspecific competition. Breeding density had a negative influence on fecundity, but it acted by increasing the probability of reproductive failure through nest predation, rather than through competition, which was predicted to reduce the number of offspring produced by successful individuals. Our results demonstrate that density-dependent nest predation can underlie the relationship between population density and fecundity even in a high-density, insular population where intraspecific competition should be strong. PMID:25077023

Partitioning the sources of demographic variation reveals density-dependent nest predation in an island bird population.

PubMed

Sofaer, Helen R; Sillett, T Scott; Langin, Kathryn M; Morrison, Scott A; Ghalambor, Cameron K

2014-07-01

Ecological factors often shape demography through multiple mechanisms, making it difficult to identify the sources of demographic variation. In particular, conspecific density can influence both the strength of competition and the predation rate, but density-dependent competition has received more attention, particularly among terrestrial vertebrates and in island populations. A better understanding of how both competition and predation contribute to density-dependent variation in fecundity can be gained by partitioning the effects of density on offspring number from its effects on reproductive failure, while also evaluating how biotic and abiotic factors jointly shape demography. We examined the effects of population density and precipitation on fecundity, nest survival, and adult survival in an insular population of orange-crowned warblers (Oreothlypis celata) that breeds at high densities and exhibits a suite of traits suggesting strong intraspecific competition. Breeding density had a negative influence on fecundity, but it acted by increasing the probability of reproductive failure through nest predation, rather than through competition, which was predicted to reduce the number of offspring produced by successful individuals. Our results demonstrate that density-dependent nest predation can underlie the relationship between population density and fecundity even in a high-density, insular population where intraspecific competition should be strong.

Heterogeneous network promotes species coexistence: metapopulation model for rock-paper-scissors game.

PubMed

Nagatani, Takashi; Ichinose, Genki; Tainaka, Kei-Ichi

2018-05-04

Understanding mechanisms of biodiversity has been a central question in ecology. The coexistence of three species in rock-paper-scissors (RPS) systems are discussed by many authors; however, the relation between coexistence and network structure is rarely discussed. Here we present a metapopulation model for RPS game. The total population is assumed to consist of three subpopulations (nodes). Each individual migrates by random walk; the destination of migration is randomly determined. From reaction-migration equations, we obtain the population dynamics. It is found that the dynamic highly depends on network structures. When a network is homogeneous, the dynamics are neutrally stable: each node has a periodic solution, and the oscillations synchronize in all nodes. However, when a network is heterogeneous, the dynamics approach stable focus and all nodes reach equilibriums with different densities. Hence, the heterogeneity of the network promotes biodiversity.

Range expansion through fragmented landscapes under a variable climate

PubMed Central

Bennie, Jonathan; Hodgson, Jenny A; Lawson, Callum R; Holloway, Crispin TR; Roy, David B; Brereton, Tom; Thomas, Chris D; Wilson, Robert J

2013-01-01

Ecological responses to climate change may depend on complex patterns of variability in weather and local microclimate that overlay global increases in mean temperature. Here, we show that high-resolution temporal and spatial variability in temperature drives the dynamics of range expansion for an exemplar species, the butterfly Hesperia comma. Using fine-resolution (5 m) models of vegetation surface microclimate, we estimate the thermal suitability of 906 habitat patches at the species' range margin for 27 years. Population and metapopulation models that incorporate this dynamic microclimate surface improve predictions of observed annual changes to population density and patch occupancy dynamics during the species' range expansion from 1982 to 2009. Our findings reveal how fine-scale, short-term environmental variability drives rates and patterns of range expansion through spatially localised, intermittent episodes of expansion and contraction. Incorporating dynamic microclimates can thus improve models of species range shifts at spatial and temporal scales relevant to conservation interventions. PMID:23701124

The non-linear, interactive effects of population density and climate drive the geographical patterns of waterfowl survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhao, Qing; Boomer, G. Scott; Kendall, William L.

2018-01-01

On-going climate change has major impacts on ecological processes and patterns. Understanding the impacts of climate on the geographical patterns of survival can provide insights to how population dynamics respond to climate change and provide important information for the development of appropriate conservation strategies at regional scales. It is challenging to understand the impacts of climate on survival, however, due to the fact that the non-linear relationship between survival and climate can be modified by density-dependent processes. In this study we extended the Brownie model to partition hunting and non-hunting mortalities and linked non-hunting survival to covariates. We applied this model to four decades (1972–2014) of waterfowl band-recovery, breeding population survey, and precipitation and temperature data covering multiple ecological regions to examine the non-linear, interactive effects of population density and climate on waterfowl non-hunting survival at a regional scale. Our results showed that the non-linear effect of temperature on waterfowl non-hunting survival was modified by breeding population density. The concave relationship between non-hunting survival and temperature suggested that the effects of warming on waterfowl survival might be multifaceted. Furthermore, the relationship between non-hunting survival and temperature was stronger when population density was higher, suggesting that high-density populations may be less buffered against warming than low-density populations. Our study revealed distinct relationships between waterfowl non-hunting survival and climate across and within ecological regions, highlighting the importance of considering different conservation strategies according to region-specific population and climate conditions. Our findings and associated novel modelling approach have wide implications in conservation practice.

Density-dependent effects on physical condition and reproduction in North American elk: an experimental test.

Treesearch

Kelley M. Stewart; R. Terry Bowyer; Brian L. Dick; Bruce K. Johnson; John G. Kie

2005-01-01

Density dependence plays a key role in life-history characteristics and population ecology of large, herbivorous mammals. We designed a manipulative experiment to test hypotheses relating effects of density-dependent mechanisms on physical condition and fecundity of North American elk (Cervus elaphus) by creating populations at low and high density...

Faltering lemming cycles reduce productivity and population size of a migratory Arctic goose species

PubMed Central

Nolet, Bart A; Bauer, Silke; Feige, Nicole; Kokorev, Yakov I; Popov, Igor Yu; Ebbinge, Barwolt S

2013-01-01

1. The huge changes in population sizes of Arctic-nesting geese offer a great opportunity to study population limitation in migratory animals. In geese, population limitation seems to have shifted from wintering to summering grounds. There, in the Arctic, climate is rapidly changing, and this may impact reproductive performance, and perhaps population size of geese, both directly (e.g. by changes in snow melt) or indirectly (e.g. by changes in trophic interactions). 2. Dark-bellied brent geese (Branta bernicla bernicla L.) increased 20-fold since the 1950s. Its reproduction fluctuates strongly in concert with the 3-year lemming cycle. An earlier analysis, covering the growth period until 1988, did not find evidence for density dependence, but thereafter the population levelled off and even decreased. The question is whether this is caused by changes in lemming cycles, population density or other factors like carry-over effects. 3. Breeding success was derived from proportions of juveniles. We used an information-theoretical approach to investigate which environmental factors best explained the variation in breeding success over nearly 50 years (1960–2008). We subsequently combined GLM predictions of breeding success with published survival estimates to project the population trajectory since 1991 (year of maximum population size). In this way, we separated the effects of lemming abundance and population density on population development. 4. Breeding success was mainly dependent on lemming abundance, the onset of spring at the breeding grounds, and the population size of brent goose. No evidence was found for carry-over effects (i.e. effects of conditions at main spring staging site). Negative density dependence was operating at a population size above c. 200 000 individuals, but the levelling off of the population could be explained by faltering lemming cycles alone. 5. Lemmings have long been known to affect population productivity of Arctic-nesting migratory birds and, more recently, possibly population dynamics of resident bird species, but this is the first evidence for effects of lemming abundance on population size of a migratory bird species. Why lemming cycles are faltering in the last two decades is unclear, but this may be associated with changes in winter climate at Taimyr Peninsula (Siberia). PMID:23419215

Faltering lemming cycles reduce productivity and population size of a migratory Arctic goose species.

PubMed

Nolet, Bart A; Bauer, Silke; Feige, Nicole; Kokorev, Yakov I; Popov, Igor Yu; Ebbinge, Barwolt S

2013-07-01

The huge changes in population sizes of Arctic-nesting geese offer a great opportunity to study population limitation in migratory animals. In geese, population limitation seems to have shifted from wintering to summering grounds. There, in the Arctic, climate is rapidly changing, and this may impact reproductive performance, and perhaps population size of geese, both directly (e.g. by changes in snow melt) or indirectly (e.g. by changes in trophic interactions). Dark-bellied brent geese (Branta bernicla bernicla L.) increased 20-fold since the 1950s. Its reproduction fluctuates strongly in concert with the 3-year lemming cycle. An earlier analysis, covering the growth period until 1988, did not find evidence for density dependence, but thereafter the population levelled off and even decreased. The question is whether this is caused by changes in lemming cycles, population density or other factors like carry-over effects. Breeding success was derived from proportions of juveniles. We used an information-theoretical approach to investigate which environmental factors best explained the variation in breeding success over nearly 50 years (1960-2008). We subsequently combined GLM predictions of breeding success with published survival estimates to project the population trajectory since 1991 (year of maximum population size). In this way, we separated the effects of lemming abundance and population density on population development. Breeding success was mainly dependent on lemming abundance, the onset of spring at the breeding grounds, and the population size of brent goose. No evidence was found for carry-over effects (i.e. effects of conditions at main spring staging site). Negative density dependence was operating at a population size above c. 200 000 individuals, but the levelling off of the population could be explained by faltering lemming cycles alone. Lemmings have long been known to affect population productivity of Arctic-nesting migratory birds and, more recently, possibly population dynamics of resident bird species, but this is the first evidence for effects of lemming abundance on population size of a migratory bird species. Why lemming cycles are faltering in the last two decades is unclear, but this may be associated with changes in winter climate at Taimyr Peninsula (Siberia). © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Analysing the natural population growth of a large marine mammal after a depletive harvest.

PubMed

Romero, M A; Grandi, M F; Koen-Alonso, M; Svendsen, G; Ocampo Reinaldo, M; García, N A; Dans, S L; González, R; Crespo, E A

2017-07-13

An understanding of the underlying processes and comprehensive history of population growth after a harvest-driven depletion is necessary when assessing the long-term effectiveness of management and conservation strategies. The South American sea lion (SASL), Otaria flavescens, is the most conspicuous marine mammal along the South American coasts, where it has been heavily exploited. As a consequence of this exploitation, many of its populations were decimated during the early 20th century but currently show a clear recovery. The aim of this study was to assess SASL population recovery by applying a Bayesian state-space modelling framework. We were particularly interested in understanding how the population responds at low densities, how human-induced mortality interplays with natural mechanisms, and how density-dependence may regulate population growth. The observed population trajectory of SASL shows a non-linear relationship with density, recovering with a maximum increase rate of 0.055. However, 50 years after hunting cessation, the population still represents only 40% of its pre-exploitation abundance. Considering that the SASL population in this region represents approximately 72% of the species abundance within the Atlantic Ocean, the present analysis provides insights into the potential mechanisms regulating the dynamics of SASL populations across the global distributional range of the species.

Roles of density-dependent growth and life history evolution in accounting for fisheries-induced trait changes.

PubMed

Eikeset, Anne Maria; Dunlop, Erin S; Heino, Mikko; Storvik, Geir; Stenseth, Nils C; Dieckmann, Ulf

2016-12-27

The relative roles of density dependence and life history evolution in contributing to rapid fisheries-induced trait changes remain debated. In the 1930s, northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua), currently the world's largest cod stock, experienced a shift from a traditional spawning-ground fishery to an industrial trawl fishery with elevated exploitation in the stock's feeding grounds. Since then, age and length at maturation have declined dramatically, a trend paralleled in other exploited stocks worldwide. These trends can be explained by demographic truncation of the population's age structure, phenotypic plasticity in maturation arising through density-dependent growth, fisheries-induced evolution favoring faster-growing or earlier-maturing fish, or a combination of these processes. Here, we use a multitrait eco-evolutionary model to assess the capacity of these processes to reproduce 74 y of historical data on age and length at maturation in northeast Arctic cod, while mimicking the stock's historical harvesting regime. Our results show that model predictions critically depend on the assumed density dependence of growth: when this is weak, life history evolution might be necessary to prevent stock collapse, whereas when a stronger density dependence estimated from recent data is used, the role of evolution in explaining fisheries-induced trait changes is diminished. Our integrative analysis of density-dependent growth, multitrait evolution, and stock-specific time series data underscores the importance of jointly considering evolutionary and ecological processes, enabling a more comprehensive perspective on empirically observed stock dynamics than previous studies could provide.

Sexual segregation in North American elk: the role of density dependence

PubMed Central

Stewart, Kelley M; Walsh, Danielle R; Kie, John G; Dick, Brian L; Bowyer, R Terry

2015-01-01

We investigated how density-dependent processes and subsequent variation in nutritional condition of individuals influenced both timing and duration of sexual segregation and selection of resources. During 1999–2001, we experimentally created two population densities of North American elk (Cervus elaphus), a high-density population at 20 elk/km2, and a low-density population at 4 elk/km2 to test hypotheses relative to timing and duration of sexual segregation and variation in selection of resources. We used multi-response permutation procedures to investigate patterns of sexual segregation, and resource selection functions to document differences in selection of resources by individuals in high- and low-density populations during sexual segregation and aggregation. The duration of sexual segregation was 2 months longer in the high-density population and likely was influenced by individuals in poorer nutritional condition, which corresponded with later conception and parturition, than at low density. Males and females in the high-density population overlapped in selection of resources to a greater extent than in the low-density population, probably resulting from density-dependent effects of increased intraspecific competition and lower availability of resources. PMID:25691992

Dynamics and life histories of northern ungulates in changing environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendrichsen, D. K.

2011-12-01

Regional climate and local weather conditions can profoundly influence life history parameters (growth, survival, fecundity) and population dynamics in northern ungulates (Post and Stenseth 1999, Coulson et al. 2001). The influence is both direct, for example through reduced growth or survival (Aanes et al. 2000, Tyler et al. 2008), and indirect, for example through changes in resource distribution, phenology and quality, changes which subsequently influence consumer dynamics (Post et al. 2008). By comparing and contrasting data from three spatially independent populations of ungulates, I discuss how variation in local weather parameters and vegetation growth influence spatial and temporal dynamics through changes in life history parameters and/or behavioural dynamics. The data originate from long term (11-15 years) monitoring data from three populations of ungulates in one subarctic and two high Arctic sites; semi-domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) in northern Norway, Svalbard reindeer (R. t. platyrhynchus) on Spitsbergen and muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) in Northeast Greenland. The results show that juvenile animals can be particularly vulnerable to changes in their environment, and that this is mirrored to different degrees in the spatio-temporal dynamics of the three populations. Adverse weather conditions, acting either directly or mediated through access to and quality of vegetation, experienced by young early in life, or even by their dams during pregnancy, can lead to reduced growth, lower survival and reduced reproductive performance later in life. The influence of current climatic variation, and the predictions of how local weather conditions may change over time, differs between the three sites, resulting in potentially different responses in the three populations. Aanes R, Saether BE and Øritsland NA. 2000. Fluctuations of an introduced population of Svalbard reindeer: the effects of density dependence and climatic variation. Ecography, 23: 437-443 Coulson T, Catchpole EA, Albon SD, Morgan BJT, Pemberton JM, Clutton-Brock TH, Crawley MJ and Grenfell BT. 2001. Age, sex, density, winter weather, and population crashes in Soay sheep. Science, 292: 1528-1531 Post, E and Stenseth NC. 1999. Climatic variability, plant phenology, and northern ungulates. Ecology, 80: 1322-1339 Post E, Pedersen C, Wilmers CC and Forchhammer MC. 2008. Warming, plant phenology and the spatial dimension of trophic mismatch for large herbivores. Proc. Roy Soc. B., 275: 2005-2013 Tyler NJC, Forchhammer MC and Øritsland NA. 2008. Nonlinear effects of climate and density in the dynamics of a fluctuating population of reindeer. Ecology, 89: 1675-1686

Population-regulating processes during the adult phase in flatfish

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rijnsdorp, A. D.

Flatfish support major fisheries and the study of regulatory processes are of paramount importance for evaluating the resilience of the resource to exploitation. This paper reviews the evidence for processes operating during the adult phase that may 1. generate interannual variability in recruitment; 2. contribute to population regulation through density-dependent growth, density-dependent ripening of adults and density-dependent egg production. With regard to (1), there is evidence that in the adult phase processes do occur that may generate recruitment variability through variation in size-specific fecundity, contraction of spawning season, reduction in egg quality, change in sex ratio and size composition of the adult population. However, time series of recruitment do not provide support for this hypothesis. With regard to (2), there is ample evidence that exploitation of flatfish coincides with an increase in growth, although the mechanisms involved are not always clear. The presence of density-dependent growth in the adult phase of unexploited populations appears to be the most likely explanation in some cases. From the early years of exploitation of flatfish stocks inhabiting cold waters, evidence exists that adult fish do not spawn each year. Fecundity schedules show annual variations, but the available information suggests that size-specific fecundity is stable over a broad range of population abundance and may only decrease at high population abundance. The analysis is complicated by the possibility of a trade-off between egg numbers and egg size. Nevertheless, a density-dependent decrease in growth will automatically result in a decrease in absolute fecundity because of the reduced body size. The potential contribution of these regulatory effects on population regulation is explored. Results indicate that density-dependent ripening and absolute fecundity, mediated through density-dependent growth, may control recruitment at high levels of population abundance. The effect of a density-dependent decrease in size-specific fecundity seems to play a minor role, although this role may become important at extremely high levels of population abundance.

A framework for studying transient dynamics of population projection matrix models.

PubMed

Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart; Hodgson, David James

2011-09-01

Empirical models are central to effective conservation and population management, and should be predictive of real-world dynamics. Available modelling methods are diverse, but analysis usually focuses on long-term dynamics that are unable to describe the complicated short-term time series that can arise even from simple models following ecological disturbances or perturbations. Recent interest in such transient dynamics has led to diverse methodologies for their quantification in density-independent, time-invariant population projection matrix (PPM) models, but the fragmented nature of this literature has stifled the widespread analysis of transients. We review the literature on transient analyses of linear PPM models and synthesise a coherent framework. We promote the use of standardised indices, and categorise indices according to their focus on either convergence times or transient population density, and on either transient bounds or case-specific transient dynamics. We use a large database of empirical PPM models to explore relationships between indices of transient dynamics. This analysis promotes the use of population inertia as a simple, versatile and informative predictor of transient population density, but criticises the utility of established indices of convergence times. Our findings should guide further development of analyses of transient population dynamics using PPMs or other empirical modelling techniques. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Galactic civilizations: Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, W. I.; Sagan, C.

1978-01-01

The interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations is reexamined by potential theory; both numerical and analytical solutions are derived for the nonlinear partial differential equations which specify a range of relevant models, drawn from blast wave physics, soil science, and, especially, population biology. An essential feature of these models is that, for all civilizations, population growth must be limited by the carrying capacity of the environment. Dispersal is fundamentally a diffusion process; a density-dependent diffusivity describes interstellar emigration. Two models are considered: the first describing zero population growth (ZPG), and the second which also includes local growth and saturation of a planetary population, and for which an asymptotic traveling wave solution is found.

Simulated effect of pig-population density on epidemic size and choice of control strategy for classical swine fever epidemics in The Netherlands.

PubMed

Mangen, M-J J; Nielen, M; Burrell, A M

2002-12-18

We examined the importance of pig-population density in the area of an outbreak of classical swine fever (CSF) for the spread of the infection and the choice of control measures. A spatial, stochastic, dynamic epidemiological simulation model linked to a sector-level market-and-trade model for The Netherlands were used. Outbreaks in sparsely and densely populated areas were compared under four different control strategies and with two alternative trade assumptions. The obligatory control strategy required by current EU legislation was predicted to be enough to eradicate an epidemic starting in an area with sparse pig population. By contrast, additional control measures would be necessary if the outbreak began in an area with high pig density. The economic consequences of using preventive slaughter rather than emergency vaccination as an additional control measure depended strongly on the reactions of trading partners. Reducing the number of animal movements significantly reduced the size and length of epidemics in areas with high pig density. The phenomenon of carrier piglets was included in the model with realistic probabilities of infection by this route, but it made a negligible contribution to the spread of the infection.

DENSITY-DEPENDENT EVOLUTION OF LIFE-HISTORY TRAITS IN DROSOPHILA MELANOGASTER.

PubMed

Bierbaum, Todd J; Mueller, Laurence D; Ayala, Francisco J

1989-03-01

Populations of Drosophila melanogaster were maintained for 36 generations in r- and K-selected environments in order to test the life-history predictions of theories on density-dependent selection. In the r-selection environment, populations were reduced to low densities by density-independent adult mortality, whereas populations in the K-selection environment were maintained at their carrying capacity. Some of the experimental results support the predictions or r- and K-selection theory; relative to the r-selected populations, the K-selected populations evolved an increased larval-to-adult viability, larger body size, and longer development time at high larval densities. Mueller and Ayala (1981) found that K-selected populations also have a higher rate of population growth at high densities. Other predictions of the thoery are contradicted by the lack of differences between the r and K populations in adult longevity and fecundity and a slower rate of development for r-selected individuals at low densities. The differences between selected populations in larval survivorship, larval-to-adult development time, and adult body size are strongly dependent on larval density, and there is a significant interaction between populations and larval density for each trait. This manifests an inadequacy of the theory on r- and K-selection, which does not take into account such interactions between genotypes and environments. We describe mechanisms that may explain the evolution of preadult life-history traits in our experiment and discuss the need for changes in theories of density-dependent selection. © 1989 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

How Life History Can Sway the Fixation Probability of Mutants

PubMed Central

Li, Xiang-Yi; Kurokawa, Shun; Giaimo, Stefano; Traulsen, Arne

2016-01-01

In this work, we study the effects of demographic structure on evolutionary dynamics when selection acts on reproduction, survival, or both. In contrast to the previously discovered pattern that the fixation probability of a neutral mutant decreases while the population becomes younger, we show that a mutant with a constant selective advantage may have a maximum or a minimum of the fixation probability in populations with an intermediate fraction of young individuals. This highlights the importance of life history and demographic structure in studying evolutionary dynamics. We also illustrate the fundamental differences between selection on reproduction and selection on survival when age structure is present. In addition, we evaluate the relative importance of size and structure of the population in determining the fixation probability of the mutant. Our work lays the foundation for also studying density- and frequency-dependent effects in populations when demographic structures cannot be neglected. PMID:27129737

Frequency-dependent population dynamics: effect of sex ratio and mating system on the elasticity of population growth rate.

PubMed

Haridas, C V; Eager, Eric Alan; Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte

2014-11-01

When vital rates depend on population structure (e.g., relative frequencies of males or females), an important question is how the long-term population growth rate λ responds to changes in rates. For instance, availability of mates may depend on the sex ratio of the population and hence reproductive rates could be frequency-dependent. In such cases change in any vital rate alters the structure, which in turn, affect frequency-dependent rates. We show that the elasticity of λ to a rate is the sum of (i) the effect of the linear change in the rate and (ii) the effect of nonlinear changes in frequency-dependent rates. The first component is always positive and is the classical elasticity in density-independent models obtained directly from the population projection matrix. The second component can be positive or negative and is absent in density-independent models. We explicitly express each component of the elasticity as a function of vital rates, eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the population projection matrix. We apply this result to a two-sex model, where male and female fertilities depend on adult sex ratio α (ratio of females to males) and the mating system (e.g., polygyny) through a harmonic mating function. We show that the nonlinear component of elasticity to a survival rate is negligible only when the average number of mates (per male) is close to α. In a strictly monogamous species, elasticity to female survival is larger than elasticity to male survival when α<1 (less females). In a polygynous species, elasticity to female survival can be larger than that of male survival even when sex ratio is female biased. Our results show how demography and mating system together determine the response to selection on sex-specific vital rates. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Populational Growth Models Proportional to Beta Densities with Allee Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aleixo, Sandra M.; Rocha, J. Leonel; Pestana, Dinis D.

2009-05-01

We consider populations growth models with Allee effect, proportional to beta densities with shape parameters p and 2, where the dynamical complexity is related with the Malthusian parameter r. For p>2, these models exhibit a population dynamics with natural Allee effect. However, in the case of 1

The role of predation and food limitation on claims for compensation, reindeer demography and population dynamics

PubMed Central

Tveraa, Torkild; Stien, Audun; Brøseth, Henrik; Yoccoz, Nigel G

2014-01-01

A major challenge in biodiversity conservation is to facilitate viable populations of large apex predators in ecosystems where they were recently driven to ecological extinction due to resource conflict with humans. Monetary compensation for losses of livestock due to predation is currently a key instrument to encourage human–carnivore coexistence. However, a lack of quantitative estimates of livestock losses due to predation leads to disagreement over the practice of compensation payments. This disagreement sustains the human–carnivore conflict. The level of depredation on year-round, free-ranging, semi-domestic reindeer by large carnivores in Fennoscandia has been widely debated over several decades. In Norway, the reindeer herders claim that lynx and wolverine cause losses of tens of thousands of animals annually and cause negative population growth in herds. Conversely, previous research has suggested that monetary predator compensation can result in positive population growth in the husbandry, with cascading negative effects of high grazer densities on the biodiversity in tundra ecosystems. We utilized a long-term, large-scale data set to estimate the relative importance of lynx and wolverine predation and density-dependent and climatic food limitation on claims for losses, recruitment and population growth rates in Norwegian reindeer husbandry. Claims of losses increased with increasing predator densities, but with no detectable effect on population growth rates. Density-dependent and climatic effects on claims of losses, recruitment and population growth rates were much stronger than the effects of variation in lynx and wolverine densities. Synthesis and applications. Our analysis provides a quantitative basis for predator compensation and estimation of the costs of reintroducing lynx and wolverine in areas with free-ranging semi-domestic reindeer. We outline a potential path for conflict management which involves adaptive monitoring programmes, open access to data, herder involvement and development of management strategy evaluation (MSE) models to disentangle complex responses including multiple stakeholders and individual harvester decisions. PMID:25558085

Argentine stem weevil ( Listronotus bonariensis, Coleoptera: Curculionidae) population dynamics in Canterbury, New Zealand dryland pasture.

PubMed

Goldson, S L; Barron, M C; Kean, J M; van Koten, C

2011-06-01

The Argentine stem weevil (Listronotus bonariensis) was an economically important pest in New Zealand pastures until the release of the parasitoid Microctonus hyperodae. This contribution uses historical data to investigate the regulation of the pest populations prior to, and somewhat during, the establishment of this parasitoid in dryland Canterbury, New Zealand. Thus, a significant goal of this study is to provide an L. bonariensis population dynamics baseline for any future work that aims to analyse the full effects of M. hyperodae on the weevil, now that equilibrium with the weevil host has been reached.The population dynamics of L. bonariensis, based on a life-table approach, were investigated using data collected regularly for eight years from populations in Canterbury, New Zealand. The key factor affecting end-of-season L. bonariensis density was found to be variation in second generation fourth instar prepupal and pupal mortality. This may have been caused by arrested development and ongoing mortality resulting from the onset of cooler autumnal conditions.A compensatory response was found in recruitment to the second summer weevil generation, whereby the realised fecundity of the emergent first summer generation of weevils was found to be negatively related to the density of adult weevils per ryegrass tiller. This is the first time that this has been found via long-term population analysis of L. bonariensis, although indications of this have been found elsewhere in caging, pot and small plot experiments.In this study, the effect of the parasitoid biocontrol agent Microctonus hyperodae on L. bonariensis population dynamics was unclear, as the analysis covered a period when the parasitoid Microctonus hyperodae was introduced and still establishing. It does, however, raise important questions for future analysis in terms of the interaction between parasitism and unrealised fecundity.The results in this contribution also highlighted regional differences. Overwintering mortality of adult weevils in Canterbury was constant between years, whilst earlier studies in the North Island Waikato region indicated this mortality was density dependent. In addition, the availability of tillers in endophyte-free ryegrass pastures in Canterbury had no influence on egg and early-instar larval survival, which contrasts with the finding from endophytic Waikato pastures.

Predation and fragmentation portrayed in the statistical structure of prey time series

PubMed Central

Hendrichsen, Ditte K; Topping, Chris J; Forchhammer, Mads C

2009-01-01

Background Statistical autoregressive analyses of direct and delayed density dependence are widespread in ecological research. The models suggest that changes in ecological factors affecting density dependence, like predation and landscape heterogeneity are directly portrayed in the first and second order autoregressive parameters, and the models are therefore used to decipher complex biological patterns. However, independent tests of model predictions are complicated by the inherent variability of natural populations, where differences in landscape structure, climate or species composition prevent controlled repeated analyses. To circumvent this problem, we applied second-order autoregressive time series analyses to data generated by a realistic agent-based computer model. The model simulated life history decisions of individual field voles under controlled variations in predator pressure and landscape fragmentation. Analyses were made on three levels: comparisons between predated and non-predated populations, between populations exposed to different types of predators and between populations experiencing different degrees of habitat fragmentation. Results The results are unambiguous: Changes in landscape fragmentation and the numerical response of predators are clearly portrayed in the statistical time series structure as predicted by the autoregressive model. Populations without predators displayed significantly stronger negative direct density dependence than did those exposed to predators, where direct density dependence was only moderately negative. The effects of predation versus no predation had an even stronger effect on the delayed density dependence of the simulated prey populations. In non-predated prey populations, the coefficients of delayed density dependence were distinctly positive, whereas they were negative in predated populations. Similarly, increasing the degree of fragmentation of optimal habitat available to the prey was accompanied with a shift in the delayed density dependence, from strongly negative to gradually becoming less negative. Conclusion We conclude that statistical second-order autoregressive time series analyses are capable of deciphering interactions within and across trophic levels and their effect on direct and delayed density dependence. PMID:19419539

Large Impact of Eurasian Lynx Predation on Roe Deer Population Dynamics

PubMed Central

Andrén, Henrik; Liberg, Olof

2015-01-01

The effects of predation on ungulate populations depend on several factors. One of the most important factors is the proportion of predation that is additive or compensatory respectively to other mortality in the prey, i.e., the relative effect of top-down and bottom-up processes. We estimated Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) kill rate on roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) using radio-collared lynx. Kill rate was strongly affected by lynx social status. For males it was 4.85 ± 1.30 S.E. roe deer per 30 days, for females with kittens 6.23 ± 0.83 S.E. and for solitary females 2.71 ± 0.47 S.E. We found very weak support for effects of prey density (both for Type I (linear) and Type II (non-linear) functional responses) and of season (winter, summer) on lynx kill rate. Additionally, we analysed the growth rate in a roe deer population from 1985 to 2005 in an area, which lynx naturally re-colonized in 1996. The annual roe deer growth rate was lower after lynx re-colonized the study area, but it was also negatively influenced by roe deer density. Before lynx colonized the area roe deer growth rate was λ = 1.079 (± 0.061 S.E.), while after lynx re-colonization it was λ = 0.94 (± 0.051 S.E.). Thus, the growth rate in the roe deer population decreased by Δλ = 0.14 (± 0.080 S.E.) after lynx re-colonized the study area, which corresponded to the estimated lynx predation rate on roe deer (0.11 ± 0.042 S.E.), suggesting that lynx predation was mainly additive to other mortality in roe deer. To conclude, this study suggests that lynx predation together with density dependent factors both influence the roe deer population dynamics. Thus, both top-down and bottom-up processes operated at the same time in this predator-prey system. PMID:25806949

Emergent multicellular life cycles in filamentous bacteria owing to density-dependent population dynamics.

PubMed

Rossetti, Valentina; Filippini, Manuela; Svercel, Miroslav; Barbour, A D; Bagheri, Homayoun C

2011-12-07

Filamentous bacteria are the oldest and simplest known multicellular life forms. By using computer simulations and experiments that address cell division in a filamentous context, we investigate some of the ecological factors that can lead to the emergence of a multicellular life cycle in filamentous life forms. The model predicts that if cell division and death rates are dependent on the density of cells in a population, a predictable cycle between short and long filament lengths is produced. During exponential growth, there will be a predominance of multicellular filaments, while at carrying capacity, the population converges to a predominance of short filaments and single cells. Model predictions are experimentally tested and confirmed in cultures of heterotrophic and phototrophic bacterial species. Furthermore, by developing a formulation of generation time in bacterial populations, it is shown that changes in generation time can alter length distributions. The theory predicts that given the same population growth curve and fitness, species with longer generation times have longer filaments during comparable population growth phases. Characterization of the environmental dependence of morphological properties such as length, and the number of cells per filament, helps in understanding the pre-existing conditions for the evolution of developmental cycles in simple multicellular organisms. Moreover, the theoretical prediction that strains with the same fitness can exhibit different lengths at comparable growth phases has important implications. It demonstrates that differences in fitness attributed to morphology are not the sole explanation for the evolution of life cycles dominated by multicellularity.

Chaotic Modes in Scale Free Opinion Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusmartsev, Feo V.; Kürten, Karl E.

In this paper, we investigate processes associated with formation of public opinion in varies directed random, scale free and small-world social networks. The important factor of the opinion formation is the existence of contrarians which were discovered by Granovetter in various social psychology experiments1,2,3 long ago and later introduced in sociophysics by Galam.4 When the density of contrarians increases the system behavior drastically changes at some critical value. At high density of contrarians the system can never arrive to a consensus state and periodically oscillates with different periods depending on specific structure of the network. At small density of the contrarians the behavior is manifold. It depends primary on the initial state of the system. If initially the majority of the population agrees with each other a state of stable majority may be easily reached. However when originally the population is divided in nearly equal parts consensus can never be reached. We model the emergence of collective decision making by considering N interacting agents, whose opinions are described by two state Ising spin variable associated with YES and NO. We show that the dynamical behaviors are very sensitive not only to the density of the contrarians but also to the network topology. We find that a phase of social chaos may arise in various dynamical processes of opinion formation in many realistic models. We compare the prediction of the theory with data describing the dynamics of the average opinion of the USA population collected on a day-by-day basis by varies media sources during the last six month before the final Obama-McCain election. The qualitative ouctome is in reasonable agreement with the prediction of our theory. In fact, the analyses of these data made within the paradigm of our theory indicates that even in this campaign there were chaotic elements where the public opinion migrated in an unpredictable chaotic way. The existence of such a phase of social chaos reflects a main feature of the human being associated with some doubts and uncertainty and especially associated with contrarians which undoubtly exist in any society.

Chaotic Modes in Scale Free Opinion Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusmartsev, Feo V.; Kürten, Karl E.

2010-12-01

In this paper, we investigate processes associated with formation of public opinion in varies directed random, scale free and small-world social networks. The important factor of the opinion formation is the existence of contrarians which were discovered by Granovetter in various social psychology experiments1,2,3 long ago and later introduced in sociophysics by Galam.4 When the density of contrarians increases the system behavior drastically changes at some critical value. At high density of contrarians the system can never arrive to a consensus state and periodically oscillates with different periods depending on specific structure of the network. At small density of the contrarians the behavior is manifold. It depends primary on the initial state of the system. If initially the majority of the population agrees with each other a state of stable majority may be easily reached. However when originally the population is divided in nearly equal parts consensus can never be reached. We model the emergence of collective decision making by considering N interacting agents, whose opinions are described by two state Ising spin variable associated with YES and NO. We show that the dynamical behaviors are very sensitive not only to the density of the contrarians but also to the network topology. We find that a phase of social chaos may arise in various dynamical processes of opinion formation in many realistic models. We compare the prediction of the theory with data describing the dynamics of the average opinion of the USA population collected on a day-by-day basis by varies media sources during the last six month before the final Obama-McCain election. The qualitative ouctome is in reasonable agreement with the prediction of our theory. In fact, the analyses of these data made within the paradigm of our theory indicates that even in this campaign there were chaotic elements where the public opinion migrated in an unpredictable chaotic way. The existence of such a phase of social chaos reflects a main feature of the human being associated with some doubts and uncertainty and especially associated with contrarians which undoubtly exist in any society.

Dynamics of a recovering Arctic bird population: the importance of climate, density dependence, and site quality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bruggeman, Jason E.; Swem, Ted; Andersen, David E.; Kennedy, Patricia L.; Nigro, Debora A.

2015-01-01

Intrinsic and extrinsic factors affect vital rates and population-level processes, and understanding these factors is paramount to devising successful management plans for wildlife species. For example, birds time migration in response, in part, to local and broadscale climate fluctuations to initiate breeding upon arrival to nesting territories, and prolonged inclement weather early in the breeding season can inhibit egg-laying and reduce productivity. Also, density-dependent regulation occurs in raptor populations, as territory size is related to resource availability. Arctic Peregrine Falcons (Falco peregrinus tundrius; hereafter Arctic peregrine) have a limited and northern breeding distribution, including the Colville River Special Area (CRSA) in the National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska, USA. We quantified influences of climate, topography, nest productivity, prey habitat, density dependence, and interspecific competition affecting Arctic peregrines in the CRSA by applying the Dail-Madsen model to estimate abundance and vital rates of adults on nesting cliffs from 1981 through 2002. Arctic peregrine abundance increased throughout the 1980s, which spanned the population's recovery from DDT-induced reproductive failure, until exhibiting a stationary trend in the 1990s. Apparent survival rate (i.e., emigration; death) was negatively correlated with the number of adult Arctic peregrines on the cliff the previous year, suggesting effects of density-dependent population regulation. Apparent survival and arrival rates (i.e., immigration; recruitment) were higher during years with earlier snowmelt and milder winters, and apparent survival was positively correlated with nesting season maximum daily temperature. Arrival rate was positively correlated with average Arctic peregrine productivity along a cliff segment from the previous year and initial abundance was positively correlated with cliff height. Higher cliffs with documented higher productivity (presumably indicative of higher-quality habitat), are a priority for continued protection from potential nearby development and disturbance to minimize population-level impacts. Climate change may affect Arctic peregrines in multiple ways, including through access to more snow-free nest sites and a lengthened breeding season that may increase likelihood of nest success. Our work provides insight into factors affecting a population during and after recovery, and demonstrates how the Dail-Madsen model can be used for any unmarked population with multiple years of abundance data collected through repeated surveys.

Local thermodynamic equilibrium in rapidly heated high energy density plasmas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aslanyan, V.; Tallents, G. J.

Emission spectra and the dynamics of high energy density plasmas created by optical and Free Electron Lasers (FELs) depend on the populations of atomic levels. Calculations of plasma emission and ionization may be simplified by assuming Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (LTE), where populations are given by the Saha-Boltzmann equation. LTE can be achieved at high densities when collisional processes are much more significant than radiative processes, but may not be valid if plasma conditions change rapidly. A collisional-radiative model has been used to calculate the times taken by carbon and iron plasmas to reach LTE at varying densities and heating rates.more » The effect of different energy deposition methods, as well as Ionization Potential Depression are explored. This work shows regimes in rapidly changing plasmas, such as those created by optical lasers and FELs, where the use of LTE is justified, because timescales for plasma changes are significantly longer than the times needed to achieve an LTE ionization balance.« less

The role of Allee effects in gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), invasions

Treesearch

Patrick C. Tobin; Christelle Robinet; Derek M. Johnson; Stefanie L. Whitmire; Ottar N. Bjornstad; Andrew M. Liebhold

2009-01-01

Allee effects have been applied historically in efforts to understand the low-density population dynamics of rare and endangered species. Many biological invasions likewise experience the phenomenon of decreasing population growth rates at low population densities because most founding populations of introduced nonnative species occur at low densities. In range...

Density and spin modes in imbalanced normal Fermi gases from collisionless to hydrodynamic regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narushima, Masato; Watabe, Shohei; Nikuni, Tetsuro

2018-03-01

We study the mass- and population-imbalance effect on density (in-phase) and spin (out-of-phase) collective modes in a two-component normal Fermi gas. By calculating the eigenmodes of the linearized Boltzmann equation as well as the density/spin dynamic structure factor, we show that mass- and population-imbalance effects offer a variety of collective mode crossover behaviors from collisionless to hydrodynamic regimes. The mass-imbalance effect shifts the crossover regime to the higher-temperature, and a significant peak of the spin dynamic structure factor emerges only in the collisionless regime. This is in contrast to the case of mass- and population-balanced normal Fermi gases, where the spin dynamic response is always absent. Although the population-imbalance effect does not shift the crossover regime, the spin dynamic structure factor survives both in the collisionless and hydrodynamic regimes.

Modelling the mating system of polar bears: a mechanistic approach to the Allee effect.

PubMed

Molnár, Péter K; Derocher, Andrew E; Lewis, Mark A; Taylor, Mitchell K

2008-01-22

Allee effects may render exploited animal populations extinction prone, but empirical data are often lacking to describe the circumstances leading to an Allee effect. Arbitrary assumptions regarding Allee effects could lead to erroneous management decisions so that predictive modelling approaches are needed that identify the circumstances leading to an Allee effect before such a scenario occurs. We present a predictive approach of Allee effects for polar bears where low population densities, an unpredictable habitat and harvest-depleted male populations result in infrequent mating encounters. We develop a mechanistic model for the polar bear mating system that predicts the proportion of fertilized females at the end of the mating season given population density and operational sex ratio. The model is parametrized using pairing data from Lancaster Sound, Canada, and describes the observed pairing dynamics well. Female mating success is shown to be a nonlinear function of the operational sex ratio, so that a sudden and rapid reproductive collapse could occur if males are severely depleted. The operational sex ratio where an Allee effect is expected is dependent on population density. We focus on the prediction of Allee effects in polar bears but our approach is also applicable to other species.

Anthropogenically-Mediated Density Dependence in a Declining Farmland Bird

PubMed Central

Dunn, Jenny C.; Hamer, Keith C.; Benton, Tim G.

2015-01-01

Land management intrinsically influences the distribution of animals and can consequently alter the potential for density-dependent processes to act within populations. For declining species, high densities of breeding territories are typically considered to represent productive populations. However, as density-dependent effects of food limitation or predator pressure may occur (especially when species are dependent upon separate nesting and foraging habitats), high territory density may limit per-capita productivity. Here, we use a declining but widespread European farmland bird, the yellowhammer Emberiza citrinella L., as a model system to test whether higher territory densities result in lower fledging success, parental provisioning rates or nestling growth rates compared to lower densities. Organic landscapes held higher territory densities, but nests on organic farms fledged fewer nestlings, translating to a 5 times higher rate of population shrinkage on organic farms compared to conventional. In addition, when parental provisioning behaviour was not restricted by predation risk (i.e., at times of low corvid activity), nestling provisioning rates were higher at lower territory densities, resulting in a much greater increase in nestling mass in low density areas, suggesting that food limitation occurred at high densities. These findings in turn suggest an ecological trap, whereby preferred nesting habitat does not provide sufficient food for rearing nestlings at high population density, creating a population sink. Habitat management for farmland birds should focus not simply on creating a high nesting density, but also on ensuring heterogeneous habitats to provide food resources in close proximity to nesting birds, even if this occurs through potentially restricting overall nest density but increasing population-level breeding success. PMID:26431173

Climatic influences on the breeding biology of the agile frog ( Rana dalmatina)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Combes, Magali; Pinaud, David; Barbraud, Christophe; Trotignon, Jacques; Brischoux, François

2018-02-01

Severe population declines of amphibians have been shown to be attributed to climate change. Nevertheless, the various mechanisms through which climate can influence population dynamics of amphibians remain to be assessed, notably to disentangle the relative synergetic or antagonistic influences of temperature and precipitations on specific life history stages. We investigated the impact of rainfall and temperature on the egg-clutch abundance in a population of agile frog ( Rana dalmatina) during 29 years (1987-2016) on 14 breeding sites located in Brenne Natural Park, France. Specifically, we examined the influence of environmental conditions occurring during five temporal windows of the year cycle corresponding to specific life history stages. Overall, our results suggest that the year-to-year fluctuations of egg-clutch abundances in Brenne Natural Park were partly dependent on local climatic conditions (rainfall and temperature). Climate seemed to influence breeding frogs during the autumn-winter period preceding reproduction. Spring and summer conditions did not influence reproduction. Additionally, we failed to detect effects of climatic conditions on newly metamorphosed individuals. Other factors such as density dependence and inter-specific interactions with introduced predators are likely to play a significant role in reproduction dynamics of the studied frog populations.

Climatic influences on the breeding biology of the agile frog (Rana dalmatina).

PubMed

Combes, Magali; Pinaud, David; Barbraud, Christophe; Trotignon, Jacques; Brischoux, François

2017-12-19

Severe population declines of amphibians have been shown to be attributed to climate change. Nevertheless, the various mechanisms through which climate can influence population dynamics of amphibians remain to be assessed, notably to disentangle the relative synergetic or antagonistic influences of temperature and precipitations on specific life history stages. We investigated the impact of rainfall and temperature on the egg-clutch abundance in a population of agile frog (Rana dalmatina) during 29 years (1987-2016) on 14 breeding sites located in Brenne Natural Park, France. Specifically, we examined the influence of environmental conditions occurring during five temporal windows of the year cycle corresponding to specific life history stages. Overall, our results suggest that the year-to-year fluctuations of egg-clutch abundances in Brenne Natural Park were partly dependent on local climatic conditions (rainfall and temperature). Climate seemed to influence breeding frogs during the autumn-winter period preceding reproduction. Spring and summer conditions did not influence reproduction. Additionally, we failed to detect effects of climatic conditions on newly metamorphosed individuals. Other factors such as density dependence and inter-specific interactions with introduced predators are likely to play a significant role in reproduction dynamics of the studied frog populations.

Spatial model for transmission of mosquito-borne diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kon, Cynthia Mui Lian; Labadin, Jane

2015-05-01

In this paper, a generic model which takes into account spatial heterogeneity for the dynamics of mosquito-borne diseases is proposed. The dissemination of the disease is described by a system of reaction-diffusion partial differential equations. Host human and vector mosquito populations are divided into susceptible and infectious classes. Diffusion is considered to occur in all classes of both populations. Susceptible humans are infected when bitten by infectious mosquitoes. Susceptible mosquitoes bite infectious humans and become infected. The biting rate of mosquitoes is considered to be density dependent on the total human population in different locations. The system is solved numerically and results are shown.

Hierarchical spatiotemporal matrix models for characterizing invasions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hooten, M.B.; Wikle, C.K.; Dorazio, R.M.; Royle, J. Andrew

2007-01-01

The growth and dispersal of biotic organisms is an important subject in ecology. Ecologists are able to accurately describe survival and fecundity in plant and animal populations and have developed quantitative approaches to study the dynamics of dispersal and population size. Of particular interest are the dynamics of invasive species. Such nonindigenous animals and plants can levy significant impacts on native biotic communities. Effective models for relative abundance have been developed; however, a better understanding of the dynamics of actual population size (as opposed to relative abundance) in an invasion would be beneficial to all branches of ecology. In this article, we adopt a hierarchical Bayesian framework for modeling the invasion of such species while addressing the discrete nature of the data and uncertainty associated with the probability of detection. The nonlinear dynamics between discrete time points are intuitively modeled through an embedded deterministic population model with density-dependent growth and dispersal components. Additionally, we illustrate the importance of accommodating spatially varying dispersal rates. The method is applied to the specific case of the Eurasian Collared-Dove, an invasive species at mid-invasion in the United States at the time of this writing.

Hierarchical spatiotemporal matrix models for characterizing invasions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hooten, M.B.; Wikle, C.K.; Dorazio, R.M.; Royle, J. Andrew

2007-01-01

The growth and dispersal of biotic organisms is an important subject in ecology. Ecologists are able to accurately describe survival and fecundity in plant and animal populations and have developed quantitative approaches to study the dynamics of dispersal and population size. Of particular interest are the dynamics of invasive species. Such nonindigenous animals and plants can levy significant impacts on native biotic communities. Effective models for relative abundance have been developed; however, a better understanding of the dynamics of actual population size (as opposed to relative abundance) in an invasion would be beneficial to all branches of ecology. In this article, we adopt a hierarchical Bayesian framework for modeling the invasion of such species while addressing the discrete nature of the data and uncertainty associated with the probability of detection. The nonlinear dynamics between discrete time points are intuitively modeled through an embedded deterministic population model with density-dependent growth and dispersal components. Additionally, we illustrate the importance of accommodating spatially varying dispersal rates. The method is applied to the specific case of the Eurasian Collared-Dove, an invasive species at mid-invasion in the United States at the time of this writing. ?? 2006, The International Biometric Society.

Quantitative investigations of the epidemiology of phocine distemper virus (PDV) in European common seal populations.

PubMed

Grenfell, B T; Lonergan, M E; Harwood, J

1992-04-20

This paper uses simple mathematical models to examine the long-term dynamic consequences of the 1988 epizootic of phocine distemper virus (PDV) infection in Northern European common seal populations. In a preliminary analysis of single outbreaks of infection deterministic compartmental models are used to estimate feasible ranges for the transmission rate of the infection and the level of disease-induced mortality. These results also indicate that the level of transmission in 1988 was probably sufficient to eradicate the infection throughout the Northern European common seal populations by the end of the first outbreak. An analysis of longer-term infection dynamics, which takes account of the density-dependent recovery of seal population levels, corroborates this finding. It also indicates that a reintroduction of the virus would be unlikely to cause an outbreak on the scale of the 1988 epizootic until the seal population had recovered for at least 10 years. The general ecological implications of these results are discussed.

Long-term persistence, density dependence and effects of climate change on rosyside dace (Cyprinidae)

Treesearch

Gary D. Grossman; Gary Sundin; Robert E. Ratajczak

2016-01-01

SummaryWe used long-term population data for rosyside dace (Clinostomus funduloides), a numerically dominant member of a stochastically organised fish assemblage, to evaluate the relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent processes to population...

Impact of transient climate change upon Grouse population dynamics in the Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirovano, Andrea; Bocchiola, Daniele

2010-05-01

Understanding the effect of short to medium term weather condition, and of transient global warming upon wildlife species life history is essential to predict the demographic consequences therein, and possibly develop adaptation strategies, especially in game species, where hunting mortality may play an important role in population dynamics. We carried out a preliminary investigation of observed impact of weather variables upon population dynamics indexes of three alpine Grouse species (i.e. Rock Ptarmigan, Lagopus Mutus, Black Grouse, Tetrao Tetrix, Rock Partridge, Alectoris Graeca), nested within central Italian Alps, based upon 15 years (1995-2009) of available censuses data, provided by the Sondrio Province authority. We used a set of climate variables already highlighted within recent literature for carrying considerable bearing on Grouse population dynamics, including e.g. temperature at hatching time and during winter, snow cover at nesting, and precipitation during nursing period. We then developed models of Grouses' population dynamics by explicitly driving population change according to their dependence upon the significant weather variables and population density and we evaluated objective indexes to assess the so obtained predictive power. Eventually, we develop projection of future local climate, based upon locally derived trends, and upon projections from GCMs (A2 IPCC storyline) already validated for the area, to project forward in time (until 2100 or so) the significant climatic variables, which we then use to force population dynamics models of the target species. The projected patterns obtained through this exercise are discussed and compared against those expected under stationary climate conditions at present, and preliminary conclusions are drawn.

Host-Parasite Interactions and Population Dynamics of Rock Ptarmigan.

PubMed

Stenkewitz, Ute; Nielsen, Ólafur K; Skírnisson, Karl; Stefánsson, Gunnar

2016-01-01

Populations of rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta) in Iceland fluctuate in multiannual cycles with peak numbers c. every 10 years. We studied the ptarmigan-parasite community and how parasites relate to ptarmigan age, body condition, and population density. We collected 632 ptarmigan in northeast Iceland in early October from 2006 to 2012; 630 (99.7%) were infected with at least one parasite species, 616 (98%) with ectoparasites, and 536 (85%) with endoparasites. We analysed indices for the combined parasite community (16 species) and known pathogenic parasites, two coccidian protozoans Eimeria muta and Eimeria rjupa, two nematodes Capillaria caudinflata and Trichostrongylus tenuis, one chewing louse Amyrsidea lagopi, and one skin mite Metamicrolichus islandicus. Juveniles overall had more ectoparasites than adults, but endoparasite levels were similar in both groups. Ptarmigan population density was associated with endoparasites, and in particular prevalence of the coccidian parasite Eimeria muta. Annual aggregation level of this eimerid fluctuated inversely with prevalence, with lows at prevalence peak and vice versa. Both prevalence and aggregation of E. muta tracked ptarmigan population density with a 1.5 year time lag. The time lag could be explained by the host specificity of this eimerid, host density dependent shedding of oocysts, and their persistence in the environment from one year to the next. Ptarmigan body condition was negatively associated with E. muta prevalence, an indication of their pathogenicity, and this eimerid was also positively associated with ptarmigan mortality and marginally inversely with fecundity. There were also significant associations between fecundity and chewing louse Amyrsidea lagopi prevalence (negative), excess juvenile mortality and nematode Capillaria caudinflata prevalence (positive), and adult mortality and skin mite Metamicrolichus islandicus prevalence (negative). Though this study is correlational, it provides strong evidence that E. muta through time-lag in prevalence with respect to host population size and by showing significant relations with host body condition, mortality, and fecundity could destabilize ptarmigan population dynamics in Iceland.

Local density regulates migratory songbird reproductive success through effects on double-brooding and nest predation.

PubMed

Woodworth, Bradley K; Wheelwright, Nathaniel T; Newman, Amy E M; Norris, D Ryan

2017-08-01

Knowledge of the density-dependent processes that regulate animal populations is key to understanding, predicting, and conserving populations. In migratory birds, density-dependence is most often studied during the breeding season, yet we still lack a robust understanding of the reproductive traits through which density influences individual reproductive success. We used 27-yr of detailed, individual-level productivity data from an island-breeding population of Savannah sparrows Passerculus sandwichensis to evaluate effects of local and total annual population density on female reproductive success. Local density (number of neighbors within 50 m of a female's nest) had stronger effects on the number of young fledged than did total annual population density. Females nesting in areas of high local density were more likely to suffer nest predation and less likely to initiate and fledge a second clutch, which led to fewer young fledged in a season. Fledging fewer young subsequently decreased the likelihood of a female recruiting offspring into the breeding population in a subsequent year. Collectively, these results provide insight into the scale and reproductive mechanisms mediating density-dependent reproductive success and fitness in songbirds. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

THE SEARCH DYNAMICS OF RECRUITED HONEY BEES, APIS MELLIFERA LIGUSTICA SPINOLA.

PubMed

Friesen, Larry Jon

1973-02-01

Some variables in the recruitment process of honey bees were studied as they affected the distribution and success of the searching population in the field. The dance language and odor dependence hypotheses were contrasted and their predictions compared with the following observations. 1. Recruits were attracted to the odors from the food which were carried by foragers and were dependent on these odors for success. 2. A monitoring of recruit densities in the field demonstrated an association of searchers with the forager flight path. 3. The degree of correspondence between the distribution of recruits and the direction of the flight path to the feeding site was correlated with wind direction, not search efficiency. 4. Feeding stations upwind of the hive provided the highest recruit success rates, shortest search times, and the least dependence on wind speed. Downwind stations provided the lowest recruit success rates, the longest search times, and the greatest dependence on wind speed. 5. A disproportionate increase in recruit success with an increase in the number of foragers visiting a feeding site was correlated with the density of the foragers in the field. 6. Increased bee densities at the feeding site, even with bees from different hives, increased recruit success and shortened search times. 7. The progression of and the extremely long intervals between the onset of recruit arrivals at areas along the forager flight path suggested communication among bees in the field and a dependence of recruit success on the density and growth of the searching population. These observations are compatible with an odor dependent search behavior and together fail to support the predictions of the dance language hypothesis. Dance attendants appeared to have been conditioned to the odors associated with returning foragers and, after leaving the hive, entered a searching population dependent on these odors for success. The dependence of recruit success on food odor at the feeding station, the density of foragers between this station and the hive, and the direction of the wind indicates that the integrity of the forager flight path was extremely important to this success. The distributions and extended search times of recruits indicated a search behavior based on positive anemotaxis during the perception of the proper combination of odors and negative anemotaxis after the loss of this stimulation.

The effects of regional angling effort, angler behavior, and harvesting efficiency on landscape patterns of overfishing.

PubMed

Hunt, Len M; Arlinghaus, Robert; Lester, Nigel; Kushneriuk, Rob

2011-10-01

We used a coupled social-ecological model to study the landscape-scale patterns emerging from a mobile population of anglers exploiting a spatially structured walleye (Sander vitreus) fishery. We systematically examined how variations in angler behaviors (i.e., relative importance of walleye catch rate in guiding fishing site choices), harvesting efficiency (as implied by varying degrees of inverse density-dependent catchability of walleye), and angler population size affected the depletion of walleye stocks across 157 lakes located near Thunder Bay (Ontario, Canada). Walleye production biology was calibrated using lake-specific morphometric and edaphic features, and angler fishing site choices were modeled using an empirically grounded multi-attribute utility function. We found support for the hypothesis of sequential collapses of walleye stocks across the landscape in inverse proportionality of travel cost from the urban residence of anglers. This pattern was less pronounced when the regional angler population was low, density-dependent catchability was absent or low, and angler choices of lakes in the landscape were strongly determined by catch rather than non-catch-related attributes. Thus, our study revealed a systematic pattern of high catch importance reducing overfishing potential at low and aggravating overfishing potential at high angler population sizes. The analyses also suggested that density-dependent catchability might have more serious consequences for regional overfishing states than variations in angler behavior. We found little support for the hypotheses of systematic overexploitation of the most productive walleye stocks and homogenized catch-related qualities among lakes sharing similar access costs to anglers. Therefore, one should not expect anglers to systematically exploit the most productive fisheries or to equalize catch rates among lakes through their mobility and other behaviors. This study underscores that understanding landscape overfishing dynamics involves a careful appreciation of angler population size and how it interacts with the attributes that drive angler behaviors and depensatory mechanisms such as inverse density-dependent catchability. Only when all of these ingredients are considered and understood can one derive reasonably predictable patterns of overfishing in the landscape. These patterns range from self-regulating systems with low levels of regional fishing pressure to sequential collapse of walleye fisheries from the origin of angling effort.

The evolution of a Müllerian mimic in a spatially distributed community.

PubMed

Joron, Mathieu; Iwasa, Yoh

2005-11-07

Strong positive density-dependence should lead to a loss of diversity, but warning-colour and Müllerian mimicry systems show extraordinary levels of diversity. Here, we propose an analytical model to explore the dynamics of two forms of a Müllerian mimic in a heterogeneous environment with two alternative model species. Two connected populations of a dimorphic, chemically defended mimic are allowed to evolve and disperse. The proportions of the respective model species vary spatially. We use a nonlinear approximation of Müller's number-dependent equations to model a situation where the mortality for either form of the mimic decreases hyberbolically when its local density increases. A first non-spatial analysis confirms that the positive density-dependence makes coexistence of mimetic forms unstable in a single isolated patch, but shows that mimicry of the rarer model can be stable once established. The two-patch analysis shows that when models have different abundance in different places, local mimetic diversity in the mimic is maintained only if spatial heterogeneity is strong, or, more interestingly, if the mimic is not too strongly distasteful. Therefore, mildly toxic species can become polymorphic in a wider range of ecological settings. Spatial dynamics thus reveal a region of Müllerian polymorphism separating classical Batesian polymorphism and Müllerian monomorphism along the mimic's palatability spectrum. Such polymorphism-palatability relationship in a spatial environment provides a parsimonious hypothesis accounting for the observed Müllerian polymorphism that does not require quasi-Batesian dynamics. While the stability of coexistence depends on all factors, only the migration rate and strength of selection appear to affect the level of diversity at the polymorphic equilibrium. Local adaptation is predicted in most polymorphic cases. These results are in very good accordance with recent empirical findings on the polymorphic butterflies Heliconius numata and H. cydno.

Dynamics of population densities and vegetation associations of Anopheles albimanus larvae in a coastal area of southern Chiapas, Mexico.

PubMed

Rodríguez, A D; Rodríguez, M H; Meza, R A; Hernández, J E; Rejmankova, E; Savage, H M; Roberts, D R; Pope, K O; Legters, L

1993-03-01

Spatial and seasonal variations on Anopheles albimanus larval densities and their plant associations were investigated in larval habitats in southern Mexico between April 1989 and May 1990. Thirty-four plant groups were dominant in larval habitats. Dense larval populations were associated with 3 genera of plants, Cynodon, Echinocloa and Fimbristylis and no larvae were found in habitats with Salvinia and Rhizophora. Low significant positive or negative associations were documented with the other 12 plant genera. Larval habitats were classified according to the morphology of their dominant plants. Higher larval densities were observed in the groups characterized by relatively short emergent vegetation. The distribution of habitat-types within 5 identified vegetation units showed a significantly dependent relationship. For the entire study period, highest larval densities were detected in flooded pasture/grassland vegetation units. For all vegetation units, higher larval densities were found when the dominant plant type covered between 25-50% of the breeding site. The integration of data from habitat-types into vegetation units did not result in loss of information.

Ab Initio Multiple Spawning Photochemical Dynamics of DMABN Using GPUs

DOE PAGES

Curchod, Basile F. E.; Sisto, Aaron; Martinez, Todd J.

2016-12-15

The ultrafast decay dynamics of 4-( N,N-dimethylamino)benzonitrile (DMABN) following photoexcitation was studied with the ab initio multiple spawning (AIMS) method, combined with GPU-accelerated linear-response time-dependent density functional theory (LR-TDDFT). We validate the LR-TDDFT method for this case and then present a detailed analysis of the first ≈200 fs of DMABN excited-state dynamics. Almost complete nonadiabatic population transfer from S 2 (the initially populated bright state) to S 1 takes place in less than 50 fs, without significant torsion of the dimethylamino (DMA) group. Significant torsion of the DMA group is only observed after the nuclear wavepacket reaches S 1 andmore » acquires locally excited electronic character. Here, our results show that torsion of the DMA group is not prerequisite for nonadiabatic transitions in DMABN, although such motion is indeed relevant on the lowest excited state (S 1).« less

Role of density modulation in the spatially resolved dynamics of strongly confined liquids

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saw, Shibu, E-mail: shibu.saw@sydney.edu.au; Dasgupta, Chandan, E-mail: cdgupta@physics.iisc.ernet.in

Confinement by walls usually produces a strong modulation in the density of dense liquids near the walls. Using molecular dynamics simulations, we examine the effects of the density modulation on the spatially resolved dynamics of a liquid confined between two parallel walls, using a resolution of a fraction of the interparticle distance in the liquid. The local dynamics is quantified by the relaxation time associated with the temporal autocorrelation function of the local density. We find that this local relaxation time varies in phase with the density modulation. The amplitude of the spatial modulation of the relaxation time can bemore » quite large, depending on the characteristics of the wall and thermodynamic parameters of the liquid. To disentangle the effects of confinement and density modulation on the spatially resolved dynamics, we compare the dynamics of a confined liquid with that of an unconfined one in which a similar density modulation is induced by an external potential. We find several differences indicating that density modulation alone cannot account for all the features seen in the spatially resolved dynamics of confined liquids. We also examine how the dynamics near a wall depends on the separation between the two walls and show that the features seen in our simulations persist in the limit of large wall separation.« less

Density-dependent selection on mate search and evolution of Allee effects.

PubMed

Berec, Luděk; Kramer, Andrew M; Bernhauerová, Veronika; Drake, John M

2018-01-01

Sexually reproducing organisms require males and females to find each other. Increased difficulty of females finding mates as male density declines is the most frequently reported mechanism of Allee effects in animals. Evolving more effective mate search may alleviate Allee effects, but may depend on density regimes a population experiences. In particular, high-density populations may evolve mechanisms that induce Allee effects which become detrimental when populations are reduced and maintained at a low density. We develop an individual-based, eco-genetic model to study how mating systems and fitness trade-offs interact with changes in population density to drive evolution of the rate at which males or females search for mates. Finite mate search rate triggers Allee effects in our model and we explore how these Allee effects respond to such evolution. We allow a population to adapt to several population density regimes and examine whether high-density populations are likely to reverse adaptations attained at low densities. We find density-dependent selection in most of scenarios, leading to search rates that result in lower Allee thresholds in populations kept at lower densities. This mainly occurs when fecundity costs are imposed on mate search, and provides an explanation for why Allee effects are often observed in anthropogenically rare species. Optimizing selection, where the attained trait value minimizes the Allee threshold independent of population density, depended on the trade-off between search and survival, combined with monogamy when females were searching. Other scenarios led to runaway selection on the mate search rate, including evolutionary suicide. Trade-offs involved in mate search may thus be crucial to determining how density influences the evolution of Allee effects. Previous studies did not examine evolution of a trait related to the strength of Allee effects under density variation. We emphasize the crucial role that mating systems, fitness trade-offs and the evolving sex have in determining the density threshold for population persistence, in particular since evolution need not always take the Allee threshold to its minimum value. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Density Dependence, Landscape, and Weather Impacts on Aquatic Aedes japonicus japonicus (Diptera: Culicidae) Abundance Along an Urban Altitudinal Gradient.

PubMed

Chaves, Luis Fernando; Moji, Kazuhiko

2018-02-28

The Asian Bush Mosquito, Aedes (Finlaya) japonicus japonicus (Theobald) is an important globally invasive mosquito species. In comparison with other major invasive mosquitoes, relatively little is known about Ae. j. japonicus population dynamics in the field. Here, we present results from a 54-biweek long study of Ae. j. japonicus abundance in ovitraps set across the altitudinal gradient of Mt. Konpira, Nagasaki, Japan. Spatially, we found that Ae. j. japonicus fourth instar larvae (Aj4il) were more abundant at the base and top of Mt. Konpira and in ovitraps with more platykurtic water temperature (WT) distributions. In contrast, we found that temporally Aj4il were more abundant when ovitrap WT was more leptokurtic with 2 weeks of lag, and with high relative humidity SD with 2 months of lag. We also found that Aj4il were unlikely present when ovitrap WT was below 12.41°C. Parameter estimates for the Ricker model suggested that Ae. j. japonicus population growth was under density-dependence regulation, with a stable population dynamics whose fluctuations were associated with changes in ovitrap WT kurtosis and demographic stochasticity. Our results suggest that Aj4il abundance is more sensitive to temperature changes in kurtosis than mean values, potentially limiting the predictive ability of Ae. j. japonicus niche models based on the increase of average temperatures with global warming, and suggesting this mosquito species has a relatively coarse-grained response to temperature changes.

Density dependence governs when population responses to multiple stressors are magnified or mitigated.

PubMed

Hodgson, Emma E; Essington, Timothy E; Halpern, Benjamin S

2017-10-01

Population endangerment typically arises from multiple, potentially interacting anthropogenic stressors. Extensive research has investigated the consequences of multiple stressors on organisms, frequently focusing on individual life stages. Less is known about population-level consequences of exposure to multiple stressors, especially when exposure varies through life. We provide the first theoretical basis for identifying species at risk of magnified effects from multiple stressors across life history. By applying a population modeling framework, we reveal conditions under which population responses from stressors applied to distinct life stages are either magnified (synergistic) or mitigated. We find that magnification or mitigation critically depends on the shape of density dependence, but not the life stage in which it occurs. Stressors are always magnified when density dependence is linear or concave, and magnified or mitigated when it is convex. Using Bayesian numerical methods, we estimated the shape of density dependence for eight species across diverse taxa, finding support for all three shapes. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Density dependence and climate effects in Rocky Mountain elk: an application of regression with instrumental variables for population time series with sampling error.

PubMed

Creel, Scott; Creel, Michael

2009-11-01

1. Sampling error in annual estimates of population size creates two widely recognized problems for the analysis of population growth. First, if sampling error is mistakenly treated as process error, one obtains inflated estimates of the variation in true population trajectories (Staples, Taper & Dennis 2004). Second, treating sampling error as process error is thought to overestimate the importance of density dependence in population growth (Viljugrein et al. 2005; Dennis et al. 2006). 2. In ecology, state-space models are used to account for sampling error when estimating the effects of density and other variables on population growth (Staples et al. 2004; Dennis et al. 2006). In econometrics, regression with instrumental variables is a well-established method that addresses the problem of correlation between regressors and the error term, but requires fewer assumptions than state-space models (Davidson & MacKinnon 1993; Cameron & Trivedi 2005). 3. We used instrumental variables to account for sampling error and fit a generalized linear model to 472 annual observations of population size for 35 Elk Management Units in Montana, from 1928 to 2004. We compared this model with state-space models fit with the likelihood function of Dennis et al. (2006). We discuss the general advantages and disadvantages of each method. Briefly, regression with instrumental variables is valid with fewer distributional assumptions, but state-space models are more efficient when their distributional assumptions are met. 4. Both methods found that population growth was negatively related to population density and winter snow accumulation. Summer rainfall and wolf (Canis lupus) presence had much weaker effects on elk (Cervus elaphus) dynamics [though limitation by wolves is strong in some elk populations with well-established wolf populations (Creel et al. 2007; Creel & Christianson 2008)]. 5. Coupled with predictions for Montana from global and regional climate models, our results predict a substantial reduction in the limiting effect of snow accumulation on Montana elk populations in the coming decades. If other limiting factors do not operate with greater force, population growth rates would increase substantially.

Inferences about population dynamics from count data using multi-state models: A comparison to capture-recapture approaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Scott, Sillett T.; Chandler, Richard; Royle, J. Andrew

2014-01-01

Wildlife populations consist of individuals that contribute disproportionately to growth and viability. Understanding a population's spatial and temporal dynamics requires estimates of abundance and demographic rates that account for this heterogeneity. Estimating these quantities can be difficult, requiring years of intensive data collection. Often, this is accomplished through the capture and recapture of individual animals, which is generally only feasible at a limited number of locations. In contrast, N-mixture models allow for the estimation of abundance, and spatial variation in abundance, from count data alone. We extend recently developed multistate, open population N-mixture models, which can additionally estimate demographic rates based on an organism's life history characteristics. In our extension, we develop an approach to account for the case where not all individuals can be assigned to a state during sampling. Using only state-specific count data, we show how our model can be used to estimate local population abundance, as well as density-dependent recruitment rates and state-specific survival. We apply our model to a population of black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) that have been surveyed for 25 years on their breeding grounds at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. The intensive data collection efforts allow us to compare our estimates to estimates derived from capture–recapture data. Our model performed well in estimating population abundance and density-dependent rates of annual recruitment/immigration. Estimates of local carrying capacity and per capita recruitment of yearlings were consistent with those published in other studies. However, our model moderately underestimated annual survival probability of yearling and adult females and severely underestimates survival probabilities for both of these male stages. The most accurate and precise estimates will necessarily require some amount of intensive data collection efforts (such as capture–recapture). Integrated population models that combine data from both intensive and extensive sources are likely to be the most efficient approach for estimating demographic rates at large spatial and temporal scales.

Density-Dependent Growth in Invasive Lionfish (Pterois volitans)

PubMed Central

Benkwitt, Cassandra E.

2013-01-01

Direct demographic density dependence is necessary for population regulation and is a central concept in ecology, yet has not been studied in many invasive species, including any invasive marine fish. The red lionfish (Pterois volitans) is an invasive predatory marine fish that is undergoing exponential population growth throughout the tropical western Atlantic. Invasive lionfish threaten coral-reef ecosystems, but there is currently no evidence of any natural population control. Therefore, a manipulative field experiment was conducted to test for density dependence in lionfish. Juvenile lionfish densities were adjusted on small reefs and several demographic rates (growth, recruitment, immigration, and loss) were measured throughout an 8-week period. Invasive lionfish exhibited direct density dependence in individual growth rates, as lionfish grew slower at higher densities throughout the study. Individual growth in length declined linearly with increasing lionfish density, while growth in mass declined exponentially with increasing density. There was no evidence, however, for density dependence in recruitment, immigration, or loss (mortality plus emigration) of invasive lionfish. The observed density-dependent growth rates may have implications for which native species are susceptible to lionfish predation, as the size and type of prey that lionfish consume is directly related to their body size. The absence of density-dependent loss, however, contrasts with many native coral-reef fish species and suggests that for the foreseeable future manual removals may be the only effective local control of this invasion. PMID:23825604

Density-dependent growth in invasive Lionfish (Pterois volitans).

PubMed

Benkwitt, Cassandra E

2013-01-01

Direct demographic density dependence is necessary for population regulation and is a central concept in ecology, yet has not been studied in many invasive species, including any invasive marine fish. The red lionfish (Pterois volitans) is an invasive predatory marine fish that is undergoing exponential population growth throughout the tropical western Atlantic. Invasive lionfish threaten coral-reef ecosystems, but there is currently no evidence of any natural population control. Therefore, a manipulative field experiment was conducted to test for density dependence in lionfish. Juvenile lionfish densities were adjusted on small reefs and several demographic rates (growth, recruitment, immigration, and loss) were measured throughout an 8-week period. Invasive lionfish exhibited direct density dependence in individual growth rates, as lionfish grew slower at higher densities throughout the study. Individual growth in length declined linearly with increasing lionfish density, while growth in mass declined exponentially with increasing density. There was no evidence, however, for density dependence in recruitment, immigration, or loss (mortality plus emigration) of invasive lionfish. The observed density-dependent growth rates may have implications for which native species are susceptible to lionfish predation, as the size and type of prey that lionfish consume is directly related to their body size. The absence of density-dependent loss, however, contrasts with many native coral-reef fish species and suggests that for the foreseeable future manual removals may be the only effective local control of this invasion.

Compensatory mortality in mule deer populations: Final technical report, January 1, 1985--December 31, 1988

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

White, G.C.

1989-03-01

The hypothesis of compensatory mortality is critical to understanding population dynamics of wildlife species. This knowledge is vital regardless of whether populations are managed for recreational hunting or habitats are altered via energy development projects. This research tested for compensatory mortality in the juvenile (fawn) portion of a mule deer population. Two experimental manipulations were used employing radio-collared deer. In this study, /approximately/20% of the population was moved from a treatment area and fawn survival rates compared to those on the control area. In the pasture study, deer were stocked in pastures at 3 densities of 44, 89, and 139more » deer/km/sup 2/. Lowering of density in the field portion of the study did not appear to affect fawn survival. This is attributed to not removing enough animals for existing range conditions that have been imparted by high deer densities during the last 3 decades. Also, the effect of removal was tempered by an increase in yearling males brought about by antler-point restrictions during the harvest. Deer removed from the treatment area were used to stock 3 large pastures at low, medium, and high densities of 44, 89, and 139 deer/km/sup 2/, respectively. Fawn survival was significantly different between densities (P < 0.001), with the low density pasture showing the highest survival and the high density pasture showing the lowest survival. The main cause of death was starvation suggesting that food supplies were limiting. A strong compensatory mortality process is operating in this mule deer population as evidenced by the pasture data. We did not detect this process in the field portion of the study because the removal of /approximately/20% of the population was insufficient to allow an immediate improvement in fawn nutrition. The density-dependent survival response in the controlled pasture study demonstrated that compensatory mortality is operating in this population. 57 refs., 7 figs., 6 tabs.« less

Population-level consequences of herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics on a long-lived invasive shrub.

PubMed

van Klinken, R D; Pichancourt, J B

2015-12-01

Long-lived plant species are highly valued environmentally, economically, and socially, but can also cause substantial harm as invaders. Realistic demographic predictions can guide management decisions, and are particularly valuable for long-lived species where population response times can be long. Long-lived species are also challenging, given population dynamics can be affected by factors as diverse as herbivory, climate, and dispersal. We developed a matrix model to evaluate the effects of herbivory by a leaf-feeding biological control agent released in Australia against a long-lived invasive shrub (mesquite, Leguminoseae: Prosopis spp.). The stage-structured, density-dependent model used an annual time step and 10 climatically diverse years of field data. Mesquite population demography is sensitive to source-sink dynamics as most seeds are consumed and redistributed spatially by livestock. In addition, individual mesquite plants, because they are long lived, experience natural climate variation that cycles over decadal scales, as well as anthropogenic climate change. The model therefore explicitly considered the effects of both net dispersal and climate variation. Herbivory strongly regulated mesquite populations through reduced growth and fertility, but additional mortality of older plants will be required to reach management goals within a reasonable time frame. Growth and survival of seeds and seedlings were correlated with daily soil moisture. As a result, population dynamics were sensitive to rainfall scenario, but population response times were typically slow (20-800 years to reach equilibrium or extinction) due to adult longevity. Equilibrium population densities were expected to remain 5% higher, and be more dynamic, if historical multi-decadal climate patterns persist, the effect being dampened by herbivory suppressing seed production irrespective of preceding rainfall. Dense infestations were unlikely to form under a drier climate, and required net dispersal under the current climate. Seed input wasn't required to form dense infestations under a wetter climate. Each factor we considered (ongoing herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics) has a strong bearing on how this invasive species should be managed, highlighting the need for considering both ecological context (in this case, source-sink dynamics) and the effect of climate variability at relevant temporal scales (daily, multi-decadal, and anthropogenic) when deriving management recommendations for long-lived species.

Population cycles: generalities, exceptions and remaining mysteries

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Population cycles are one of nature's great mysteries. For almost a hundred years, innumerable studies have probed the causes of cyclic dynamics in snowshoe hares, voles and lemmings, forest Lepidoptera and grouse. Even though cyclic species have very different life histories, similarities in mechanisms related to their dynamics are apparent. In addition to high reproductive rates and density-related mortality from predators, pathogens or parasitoids, other characteristics include transgenerational reduced reproduction and dispersal with increasing-peak densities, and genetic similarity among populations. Experiments to stop cyclic dynamics and comparisons of cyclic and noncyclic populations provide some understanding but both reproduction and mortality must be considered. What determines variation in amplitude and periodicity of population outbreaks remains a mystery. PMID:29563267

Using Dynamic Stochastic Modelling to Estimate Population Risk Factors in Infectious Disease: The Example of FIV in 15 Cat Populations

PubMed Central

Fouchet, David; Leblanc, Guillaume; Sauvage, Frank; Guiserix, Micheline; Poulet, Hervé; Pontier, Dominique

2009-01-01

Background In natural cat populations, Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV) is transmitted through bites between individuals. Factors such as the density of cats within the population or the sex-ratio can have potentially strong effects on the frequency of fight between individuals and hence appear as important population risk factors for FIV. Methodology/Principal Findings To study such population risk factors, we present data on FIV prevalence in 15 cat populations in northeastern France. We investigate five key social factors of cat populations; the density of cats, the sex-ratio, the number of males and the mean age of males and females within the population. We overcome the problem of dependence in the infective status data using sexually-structured dynamic stochastic models. Only the age of males and females had an effect (p = 0.043 and p = 0.02, respectively) on the male-to-female transmission rate. Due to multiple tests, it is even likely that these effects are, in reality, not significant. Finally we show that, in our study area, the data can be explained by a very simple model that does not invoke any risk factor. Conclusion Our conclusion is that, in host-parasite systems in general, fluctuations due to stochasticity in the transmission process are naturally very large and may alone explain a larger part of the variability in observed disease prevalence between populations than previously expected. Finally, we determined confidence intervals for the simple model parameters that can be used to further aid in management of the disease. PMID:19888418

Drivers of waterfowl population dynamics: from teal to swans

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koons, David N.; Gunnarsson, Gunnar; Schmutz, Joel A.; Rotella, Jay J.

2014-01-01

Waterfowl are among the best studied and most extensively monitored species in the world. Given their global importance for sport and subsistence hunting, viewing and ecosystem functioning, great effort has been devoted since the middle part of the 20th century to understanding both the environmental and demographic mechanisms that influence waterfowl population and community dynamics. Here we use comparative approaches to summarise and contrast our understanding ofwaterfowl population dynamics across species as short-lived as the teal Anas discors and A.crecca to those such as the swans Cygnus sp. which have long life-spans. Specifically, we focus on population responses to vital rate perturbations across life history strategies, discuss bottom-up and top-down responses of waterfowlpopulations to global change, and summarise our current understanding of density dependence across waterfowl species. We close by identifying research needs and highlight ways to overcome the challenges of sustainably managing waterfowl populations in the 21st century.

Fission Dynamics with Microscopic Level Densities

DOE PAGES

Ward, D.; Carlsson, B. G.; Dossing, Th.; ...

2017-01-01

We present a consistent framework for treating the energy and angularmomentum dependence of the shape evolution in the nuclear fission. It combines microscopically calculated level densities with the Metropolis-walk method, has no new parameters, and can elucidate the energy-dependent influence of pairing and shell effects on the dynamics of warm nuclei.

Managing the Cayo Santiago rhesus macaque population: The role of density.

PubMed

Hernandez-Pacheco, Raisa; Delgado, Diana L; Rawlins, Richard G; Kessler, Matthew J; Ruiz-Lambides, Angelina V; Maldonado, Elizabeth; Sabat, Alberto M

2016-01-01

Cayo Santiago is the oldest continuously operating free-ranging rhesus monkey colony in the world. Population control of this colony has historically been carried out by periodic live capture and removal of animals. However, the effect of such a strategy on the size, growth rate, age structure, and sex ratio of the population has not been analyzed. This study reviews past removal data and uses a population projection model to simulate the effects of different removal schemes based on Cayo Santiago demographic data from 2000-2012. The model incorporates negative density-dependence in female fertility, as well as male and female survival rates, to determine the population-level effects of selective removal by age and sex. Modeling revealed that removal of sexually immature individuals has negligible effects on the population dynamics explaining why with an initial population of 1309 in 2000 and annual removals of immature monkeys a mean annual population growth rate of 12% and a final population size of ∼1,435 individuals by 2012 (∼0.009 animal/m(2) ) was observed. With no removals, the population is expected to exhibit dampened oscillations until reaching equilibrium at ∼1,690 individuals (∼0.0111 animal/m(2) ) in 2,100. In contrast, removal of adult females (≥4 yrs) would significantly reduce the population size, but would also promote an increase in population growth rate due to density feedback. A maximum annual production of 275 births is expected when 550 adult females are present in the population. Sensitivity analyses showed that removing females, in contrast to controlling their fertility through invasive treatments would contribute the most to changes in population growth rate. Given the density compensation on fertility, stabilizing the population would require removing ∼80% of the current population of adult females. This study highlights the importance of addressing the population-level density effects, as well as sensitivity analyses, to optimize management strategies. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Consequences of the Allee effect and intraspecific competition on population persistence under adverse environmental conditions.

PubMed

Petrovskii, Sergei; Blackshaw, Rod; Li, Bai-Lian

2008-02-01

The impact of intraspecific interactions on ecological stability and population persistence in terms of steady state(s) existence is considered theoretically based on a general competition model. We compare persistence of a structured population consisting of a few interacting (competitive) subpopulations, or groups, to persistence of the corresponding unstructured population. For a general case, we show that if the intra-group competition is stronger than the inter-group competition, then the structured population is less prone to extinction, i.e. it can persist in a parameter range where the unstructured population goes extinct. For a more specific case of a population with hierarchical competition, we show that relative viability of structured and unstructured populations depend on the type of density dependence in the population growth. Namely, while in the case of logistic growth, structured and unstructured populations exhibit equivalent persistence; in the case of Allee dynamics, the persistence of a hierarchically structured population is shown to be higher. We then apply these results to the case of behaviourally structured populations and demonstrate that an extreme form of individual aggression can be beneficial at the population level and enhance population persistence.

Population dynamics, structure and behavior of Anopheles darlingi in a rural settlement in the Amazon rainforest of Acre, Brazil.

PubMed

Moutinho, Paulo Rufalco; Gil, Luis Herman Soares; Cruz, Rafael Bastos; Ribolla, Paulo Eduardo Martins

2011-06-24

Anopheles darlingi is the major vector of malaria in South America, and its behavior and distribution has epidemiological importance to biomedical research. In Brazil, An. darlingi is found in the northern area of the Amazon basin, where 99.5% of the disease is reported. The study area, known as Ramal do Granada, is a rural settlement inside the Amazon basin in the state of Acre. Population variations and density have been analysed by species behaviour, and molecular analysis has been measured by ND4 mitochondrial gene sequencing. The results show higher density in collections near a recent settlement, suggesting that a high level of colonization decreases the vector presence. The biting activity showed higher activity at twilight and major numbers of mosquitos in the remaining hours of the night in months of high density. From a sample of 110 individual mosquitoes, 18 different haplotypes were presented with a diversity index of 0.895, which is higher than that found in other Anopheles studies. An. darlingi depends on forested regions for their larval and adult survival. In months with higher population density, the presence of mosquitoes persisted in the second part of the night, increasing the vector capacity of the species. Despite the intra-population variation in the transition to rainy season, the seasonal distribution of haplotypes shows no change in the structure population of An. darlingi.

Coarse-grained forms for equations describing the microscopic motion of particles in a fluid.

PubMed

Das, Shankar P; Yoshimori, Akira

2013-10-01

Exact equations of motion for the microscopically defined collective density ρ(x,t) and the momentum density ĝ(x,t) of a fluid have been obtained in the past starting from the corresponding Langevin equations representing the dynamics of the fluid particles. In the present work we average these exact equations of microscopic dynamics over the local equilibrium distribution to obtain stochastic partial differential equations for the coarse-grained densities with smooth spatial and temporal dependence. In particular, we consider Dean's exact balance equation for the microscopic density of a system of interacting Brownian particles to obtain the basic equation of the dynamic density functional theory with noise. Our analysis demonstrates that on thermal averaging the dependence of the exact equations on the bare interaction potential is converted to dependence on the corresponding thermodynamic direct correlation functions in the coarse-grained equations.

From Experiment to Theory: What Can We Learn from Growth Curves?

PubMed

Kareva, Irina; Karev, Georgy

2018-01-01

Finding an appropriate functional form to describe population growth based on key properties of a described system allows making justified predictions about future population development. This information can be of vital importance in all areas of research, ranging from cell growth to global demography. Here, we use this connection between theory and observation to pose the following question: what can we infer about intrinsic properties of a population (i.e., degree of heterogeneity, or dependence on external resources) based on which growth function best fits its growth dynamics? We investigate several nonstandard classes of multi-phase growth curves that capture different stages of population growth; these models include hyperbolic-exponential, exponential-linear, exponential-linear-saturation growth patterns. The constructed models account explicitly for the process of natural selection within inhomogeneous populations. Based on the underlying hypotheses for each of the models, we identify whether the population that it best fits by a particular curve is more likely to be homogeneous or heterogeneous, grow in a density-dependent or frequency-dependent manner, and whether it depends on external resources during any or all stages of its development. We apply these predictions to cancer cell growth and demographic data obtained from the literature. Our theory, if confirmed, can provide an additional biomarker and a predictive tool to complement experimental research.

Modelling interactions of toxicants and density dependence in wildlife populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schipper, Aafke M.; Hendriks, Harrie W.M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.

2013-01-01

1. A major challenge in the conservation of threatened and endangered species is to predict population decline and design appropriate recovery measures. However, anthropogenic impacts on wildlife populations are notoriously difficult to predict due to potentially nonlinear responses and interactions with natural ecological processes like density dependence. 2. Here, we incorporated both density dependence and anthropogenic stressors in a stage-based matrix population model and parameterized it for a density-dependent population of peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus exposed to two anthropogenic toxicants [dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)]. Log-logistic exposure–response relationships were used to translate toxicant concentrations in peregrine falcon eggs to effects on fecundity. Density dependence was modelled as the probability of a nonbreeding bird acquiring a breeding territory as a function of the current number of breeders. 3. The equilibrium size of the population, as represented by the number of breeders, responded nonlinearly to increasing toxicant concentrations, showing a gradual decrease followed by a relatively steep decline. Initially, toxicant-induced reductions in population size were mitigated by an alleviation of the density limitation, that is, an increasing probability of territory acquisition. Once population density was no longer limiting, the toxicant impacts were no longer buffered by an increasing proportion of nonbreeders shifting to the breeding stage, resulting in a strong decrease in the equilibrium number of breeders. 4. Median critical exposure concentrations, that is, median toxicant concentrations in eggs corresponding with an equilibrium population size of zero, were 33 and 46 μg g−1 fresh weight for DDE and PBDEs, respectively. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our modelling results showed that particular life stages of a density-limited population may be relatively insensitive to toxicant impacts until a critical threshold is crossed. In our study population, toxicant-induced changes were observed in the equilibrium number of nonbreeding rather than breeding birds, suggesting that monitoring efforts including both life stages are needed to timely detect population declines. Further, by combining quantitative exposure–response relationships with a wildlife demographic model, we provided a method to quantify critical toxicant thresholds for wildlife population persistence.

Low leopard populations in protected areas of Maputaland: a consequence of poaching, habitat condition, abundance of prey, and a top predator.

PubMed

Ramesh, Tharmalingam; Kalle, Riddhika; Rosenlund, Havard; Downs, Colleen T

2017-03-01

Identifying the primary causes affecting population densities and distribution of flagship species are necessary in developing sustainable management strategies for large carnivore conservation. We modeled drivers of spatial density of the common leopard ( Panthera pardus ) using a spatially explicit capture-recapture-Bayesian approach to understand their population dynamics in the Maputaland Conservation Unit, South Africa. We camera-trapped leopards in four protected areas (PAs) of varying sizes and disturbance levels covering 198 camera stations. Ours is the first study to explore the effects of poaching level, abundance of prey species (small, medium, and large), competitors (lion Panthera leo and spotted hyenas Crocuta crocuta ), and habitat on the spatial distribution of common leopard density. Twenty-six male and 41 female leopards were individually identified and estimated leopard density ranged from 1.6 ± 0.62/100 km 2 (smallest PA-Ndumo) to 8.4 ± 1.03/100 km 2 (largest PA-western shores). Although dry forest thickets and plantation habitats largely represented the western shores, the plantation areas had extremely low leopard density compared to native forest. We found that leopard density increased in areas when low poaching levels/no poaching was recorded in dry forest thickets and with high abundance of medium-sized prey, but decreased with increasing abundance of lion. Because local leopard populations are vulnerable to extinction, particularly in smaller PAs, the long-term sustainability of leopard populations depend on developing appropriate management strategies that consider a combination of multiple factors to maintain their optimal habitats.

Population ecology, nonlinear dynamics, and social evolution. I. Associations among nonrelatives.

PubMed

Avilés, Leticia; Abbot, Patrick; Cutter, Asher D

2002-02-01

Using an individual-based and genetically explicit simulation model, we explore the evolution of sociality within a population-ecology and nonlinear-dynamics framework. Assuming that individual fitness is a unimodal function of group size and that cooperation may carry a relative fitness cost, we consider the evolution of one-generation breeding associations among nonrelatives. We explore how parameters such as the intrinsic rate of growth and group and global carrying capacities may influence social evolution and how social evolution may, in turn, influence and be influenced by emerging group-level and population-wide dynamics. We find that group living and cooperation evolve under a wide range of parameter values, even when cooperation is costly and the interactions can be defined as altruistic. Greater levels of cooperation, however, did evolve when cooperation carried a low or no relative fitness cost. Larger group carrying capacities allowed the evolution of larger groups but also resulted in lower cooperative tendencies. When the intrinsic rate of growth was not too small and control of the global population size was density dependent, the evolution of large cooperative tendencies resulted in dynamically unstable groups and populations. These results are consistent with the existence and typical group sizes of organisms ranging from the pleometrotic ants to the colonial birds and the global population outbreaks and crashes characteristic of organisms such as the migratory locusts and the tree-killing bark beetles.

Factors leading to different viability predictions for a grizzly bear data set

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mills, L.S.; Hayes, S.G.; Wisdom, M.J.; Citta, J.; Mattson, D.J.; Murphy, K.

1996-01-01

Population viability analysis programs are being used increasingly in research and management applications, but there has not been a systematic study of the congruence of different program predictions based on a single data set. We performed such an analysis using four population viability analysis computer programs: GAPPS, INMAT, RAMAS/AGE, and VORTEX. The standardized demographic rates used in all programs were generalized from hypothetical increasing and decreasing grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) populations. Idiosyncracies of input format for each program led to minor differences in intrinsic growth rates that translated into striking differences in estimates of extinction rates and expected population size. In contrast, the addition of demographic stochasticity, environmental stochasticity, and inbreeding costs caused only a small divergence in viability predictions. But, the addition of density dependence caused large deviations between the programs despite our best attempts to use the same density-dependent functions. Population viability programs differ in how density dependence is incorporated, and the necessary functions are difficult to parameterize accurately. Thus, we recommend that unless data clearly suggest a particular density-dependent model, predictions based on population viability analysis should include at least one scenario without density dependence. Further, we describe output metrics that may differ between programs; development of future software could benefit from standardized input and output formats across different programs.

What makes a species common? No evidence of density-dependent recruitment or mortality of the sea urchin Diadema antillarum after the 1983-1984 mass mortality.

PubMed

Levitan, Don R; Edmunds, Peter J; Levitan, Keeha E

2014-05-01

A potential consequence of individuals compensating for density-dependent processes is that rare or infrequent events can produce profound and long-term shifts in species abundance. In 1983-1984 a mass mortality event reduced the numbers of the abundant sea urchin Diadema antillarum by 95-99% throughout the Caribbean and western Atlantic. Following this event, the abundance of macroalgae increased and the few surviving D. antillarum responded by increasing in body size and fecundity. These initial observations suggested that populations of D. antillarum could recover rapidly following release from food limitation. In contrast, published studies of field manipulations indicate that this species had traits making it resistant to density-dependent effects on offspring production and adult mortality; this evidence raises the possibility that density-independent processes might keep populations at a diminished level. Decadal-scale (1983-2011) monitoring of recruitment, mortality, population density and size structure of D. antillarum from St John, US Virgin Islands, indicates that population density has remained relatively stable and more than an order of magnitude lower than that before the mortality event of 1983-1984. We detected no evidence of density-dependent mortality or recruitment since this mortality event. In this location, model estimates of equilibrium population density, assuming density-independent processes and based on parameters generated over the first decade following the mortality event, accurately predict the low population density 20 years later (2011). We find no evidence to support the notion that this historically dominant species will rebound from this temporally brief, but spatially widespread, perturbation.

Integration of Density Dependence and Concentration Response Models Provides an Ecologically Relevant Assessment of Populations Exposed to Toxicants

EPA Science Inventory

The assessment of toxic exposure on wildlife populations involves the integration of organism level effects measured in toxicity tests (e.g., chronic life cycle) and population models. These modeling exercises typically ignore density dependence, primarily because information on ...

Coherent structure diffusivity in the edge region of Reversed Field Pinch experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spolaore, M.; Antoni, V.; Spada, E.; Bergsåker, H.; Cavazzana, R.; Drake, J. R.; Martines, E.; Regnoli, G.; Serianni, G.; Vianello, N.

2005-01-01

Coherent structures emerging from the background turbulence have been detected by electrostatic measurements in the edge region of two Reversed Field Pinch experiments, RFX (Padua) and Extrap-T2R (Stockholm). Measurements have been performed by arrays of Langmuir probes which allowed simultaneous measurements of temperature, potential and density to be carried out. These structures have been interpreted as a dynamic balance of dipolar and monopolar vortices, whose relative population are found to depend on the local mean E × B flow shear. The contribution to the anomalous transport of these structures has been investigated and it has been found that the corresponding diffusion coeffcient accounts up to 50% of the total diffusivity. The experimental findings indicate that the diffusion coeffcient associated to the coherent structures depends on the relative population of the two types of vortices and is minimum when the two populations are equal. An interpretative model is proposed to explain this feature.

Soil-related variations in the population dynamics of six dipterocarp tree species with strong habitat preferences.

PubMed

Yamada, Toshihiro; Yamada, Yuko; Okuda, Toshinori; Fletcher, Christine

2013-07-01

Differences in the density of conspecific tree individuals in response to environmental gradients are well documented for many tree species, but how such density differences are generated and maintained is poorly understood. We examined the segregation of six dipterocarp species among three soil types in the Pasoh tropical forest, Malaysia. We examined how individual performance and population dynamics changed across the soil types using 10-year demographic data to compare tree performance across soil types, and constructed population matrix models to analyze the population dynamics. Species showed only minor changes in mortality and juvenile growth across soil types, although recruitment differed greatly. Clear, interspecific demographic trade-offs between growth and mortality were found in all soil types. The relative trade-offs by a species did not differ substantially among the soil types. Population sizes were projected to remain stable in all soil types for all species with one exception. Our life-table response experiment demonstrated that the population dynamics of a species differed only subtly among soil types. Therefore, species with strong density differences across soil types do not necessarily differ greatly in their population dynamics across the soil types. In contrast, interspecific differences in population dynamics were large. The trade-off between mortality and growth led to a negative correlation between the contributions of mortality and growth to variations in the population growth rate (λ) and thus reduced their net contributions. Recruitment had little impact on the variation in λ. The combination of these factors resulted in little variation in λ among species.

Nonadiabatic Dynamics in Single-Electron Tunneling Devices with Time-Dependent Density-Functional Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dittmann, Niklas; Splettstoesser, Janine; Helbig, Nicole

2018-04-01

We simulate the dynamics of a single-electron source, modeled as a quantum dot with on-site Coulomb interaction and tunnel coupling to an adjacent lead in time-dependent density-functional theory. Based on this system, we develop a time-nonlocal exchange-correlation potential by exploiting analogies with quantum-transport theory. The time nonlocality manifests itself in a dynamical potential step. We explicitly link the time evolution of the dynamical step to physical relaxation timescales of the electron dynamics. Finally, we discuss prospects for simulations of larger mesoscopic systems.

Nonadiabatic Dynamics in Single-Electron Tunneling Devices with Time-Dependent Density-Functional Theory.

PubMed

Dittmann, Niklas; Splettstoesser, Janine; Helbig, Nicole

2018-04-13

We simulate the dynamics of a single-electron source, modeled as a quantum dot with on-site Coulomb interaction and tunnel coupling to an adjacent lead in time-dependent density-functional theory. Based on this system, we develop a time-nonlocal exchange-correlation potential by exploiting analogies with quantum-transport theory. The time nonlocality manifests itself in a dynamical potential step. We explicitly link the time evolution of the dynamical step to physical relaxation timescales of the electron dynamics. Finally, we discuss prospects for simulations of larger mesoscopic systems.

Effects of spatial habitat heterogeneity on habitat selection and annual fecundity for a migratory forest songbird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cornell, K.L.; Donovan, T.M.

2010-01-01

Understanding how spatial habitat patterns influence abundance and dynamics of animal populations is a primary goal in landscape ecology. We used an information-theoretic approach to investigate the association between habitat patterns at multiple spatial scales and demographic patterns for black-throated blue warblers (Dendroica caerulescens) at 20 study sites in west-central Vermont, USA from 2002 to 2005. Sites were characterized by: (1) territory-scale shrub density, (2) patch-scale shrub density occurring within 25 ha of territories, and (3) landscape-scale habitat patterns occurring within 5 km radius extents of territories. We considered multiple population parameters including abundance, age ratios, and annual fecundity. Territory-scale shrub density was most important for determining abundance and age ratios, but landscape-scale habitat structure strongly influenced reproductive output. Sites with higher territory-scale shrub density had higher abundance, and were more likely to be occupied by older, more experienced individuals compared to sites with lower shrub density. However, annual fecundity was higher on sites located in contiguously forested landscapes where shrub density was lower than the fragmented sites. Further, effects of habitat pattern at one spatial scale depended on habitat conditions at different scales. For example, abundance increased with increasing territory-scale shrub density, but this effect was much stronger in fragmented landscapes than in contiguously forested landscapes. These results suggest that habitat pattern at different spatial scales affect demographic parameters in different ways, and that effects of habitat patterns at one spatial scale depends on habitat conditions at other scales. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

Scat-detection dogs survey low density moose in New York

Treesearch

Heidi Kretser; Michale Glennon; Alice Whitelaw; Aimee Hurt; Kristine Pilgrim; Michael Schwartz

2016-01-01

The difficulty of collecting occurrence and population dynamics data in mammalian populations of low density poses challenges for making informed management decisions. We assessed the use of scat-detection dogs to search for fecal pellets in a low density moose (Alces alces) population in the Adirondack Park in New York State, and the success rate of DNA...

Population cycles: generalities, exceptions and remaining mysteries.

PubMed

Myers, Judith H

2018-03-28

Population cycles are one of nature's great mysteries. For almost a hundred years, innumerable studies have probed the causes of cyclic dynamics in snowshoe hares, voles and lemmings, forest Lepidoptera and grouse. Even though cyclic species have very different life histories, similarities in mechanisms related to their dynamics are apparent. In addition to high reproductive rates and density-related mortality from predators, pathogens or parasitoids, other characteristics include transgenerational reduced reproduction and dispersal with increasing-peak densities, and genetic similarity among populations. Experiments to stop cyclic dynamics and comparisons of cyclic and noncyclic populations provide some understanding but both reproduction and mortality must be considered. What determines variation in amplitude and periodicity of population outbreaks remains a mystery. © 2018 The Author(s).

Population density and seasonality effects on Sin Nombre virus transmission in North American deermice (Peromyscus maniculatus) in outdoor enclosures.

PubMed

Bagamian, Karoun H; Douglass, Richard J; Alvarado, Arlene; Kuenzi, Amy J; Amman, Brian R; Waller, Lance A; Mills, James N

2012-01-01

Surveys of wildlife host-pathogen systems often document clear seasonal variation in transmission; conclusions concerning the relationship between host population density and transmission vary. In the field, effects of seasonality and population density on natural disease cycles are challenging to measure independently, but laboratory experiments may poorly reflect what happens in nature. Outdoor manipulative experiments are an alternative that controls for some variables in a relatively natural environment. Using outdoor enclosures, we tested effects of North American deermouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) population density and season on transmission dynamics of Sin Nombre hantavirus. In early summer, mid-summer, late summer, and fall 2007-2008, predetermined numbers of infected and uninfected adult wild deermice were released into enclosures and trapped weekly or bi-weekly. We documented 18 transmission events and observed significant seasonal effects on transmission, wounding frequency, and host breeding condition. Apparent differences in transmission incidence or wounding frequency between high- and low-density treatments were not statistically significant. However, high host density was associated with a lower proportion of males with scrotal testes. Seasonality may have a stronger influence on disease transmission dynamics than host population density, and density effects cannot be considered independent of seasonality.

Effect of flow and peristaltic mixing on bacterial growth in a gut-like channel

PubMed Central

Cremer, Jonas; Segota, Igor; Yang, Chih-yu; Arnoldini, Markus; Sauls, John T.; Zhang, Zhongge; Gutierrez, Edgar; Groisman, Alex; Hwa, Terence

2016-01-01

The ecology of microbes in the gut has been shown to play important roles in the health of the host. To better understand microbial growth and population dynamics in the proximal colon, the primary region of bacterial growth in the gut, we built and applied a fluidic channel that we call the “minigut.” This is a channel with an array of membrane valves along its length, which allows mimicking active contractions of the colonic wall. Repeated contraction is shown to be crucial in maintaining a steady-state bacterial population in the device despite strong flow along the channel that would otherwise cause bacterial washout. Depending on the flow rate and the frequency of contractions, the bacterial density profile exhibits varying spatial dependencies. For a synthetic cross-feeding community, the species abundance ratio is also strongly affected by mixing and flow along the length of the device. Complex mixing dynamics due to contractions is described well by an effective diffusion term. Bacterial dynamics is captured by a simple reaction–diffusion model without adjustable parameters. Our results suggest that flow and mixing play a major role in shaping the microbiota of the colon. PMID:27681630

Community-level consequences of cannibalism.

PubMed

Ohlberger, Jan; Langangen, Oystein; Stenseth, Nils C; Vøllestad, L Asbjørn

2012-12-01

Ecological interactions determine the structure and dynamics of communities and their responses to the environment. Understanding the community-level effects of ecological interactions, such as intra- and interspecifc competition, predation, and cannibalism, is therefore central to ecological theory and ecosystem management. Here, we investigate the community-level consequences of cannibalism in populations with density-dependent maturation and reproduction. We model a stage-structured consumer population with an ontogenetic diet shift to analyze how cannibalism alters the conditions for the invasion and persistence of stage-specific predators and competitors. Our results demonstrate that cannibalistic interactions can facilitate coexistence with other species at both trophic levels. This effect of cannibalism critically depends on the food dependence of the demographic processes. The underlying mechanism is a cannibalism-induced shift in the biomass distribution between the consumer life stages. These findings suggest that cannibalism may alter the structure of ecological communities through its effects on species coexistence.

Nodeless vibrational amplitudes and quantum nonadiabatic dynamics in the nested funnel for a pseudo Jahn-Teller molecule or homodimer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, William K.; Tiwari, Vivek; Jonas, David M.

2017-11-01

The nonadiabatic states and dynamics are investigated for a linear vibronic coupling Hamiltonian with a static electronic splitting and weak off-diagonal Jahn-Teller coupling through a single vibration with a vibrational-electronic resonance. With a transformation of the electronic basis, this Hamiltonian is also applicable to the anti-correlated vibration in a symmetric homodimer with marginally strong constant off-diagonal coupling, where the non-adiabatic states and dynamics model electronic excitation energy transfer or self-exchange electron transfer. For parameters modeling a free-base naphthalocyanine, the nonadiabatic couplings are deeply quantum mechanical and depend on wavepacket width; scalar couplings are as important as the derivative couplings that are usually interpreted to depend on vibrational velocity in semiclassical curve crossing or surface hopping theories. A colored visualization scheme that fully characterizes the non-adiabatic states using the exact factorization is developed. The nonadiabatic states in this nested funnel have nodeless vibrational factors with strongly avoided zeroes in their vibrational probability densities. Vibronic dynamics are visualized through the vibrational coordinate dependent density of the time-dependent dipole moment in free induction decay. Vibrational motion is amplified by the nonadiabatic couplings, with asymmetric and anisotropic motions that depend upon the excitation polarization in the molecular frame and can be reversed by a change in polarization. This generates a vibrational quantum beat anisotropy in excess of 2/5. The amplitude of vibrational motion can be larger than that on the uncoupled potentials, and the electronic population transfer is maximized within one vibrational period. Most of these dynamics are missed by the adiabatic approximation, and some electronic and vibrational motions are completely suppressed by the Condon approximation of a coordinate-independent transition dipole between adiabatic states. For all initial conditions investigated, the initial nonadiabatic electronic motion is driven towards the lower adiabatic state, and criteria for this directed motion are discussed.

Nodeless vibrational amplitudes and quantum nonadiabatic dynamics in the nested funnel for a pseudo Jahn-Teller molecule or homodimer.

PubMed

Peters, William K; Tiwari, Vivek; Jonas, David M

2017-11-21

The nonadiabatic states and dynamics are investigated for a linear vibronic coupling Hamiltonian with a static electronic splitting and weak off-diagonal Jahn-Teller coupling through a single vibration with a vibrational-electronic resonance. With a transformation of the electronic basis, this Hamiltonian is also applicable to the anti-correlated vibration in a symmetric homodimer with marginally strong constant off-diagonal coupling, where the non-adiabatic states and dynamics model electronic excitation energy transfer or self-exchange electron transfer. For parameters modeling a free-base naphthalocyanine, the nonadiabatic couplings are deeply quantum mechanical and depend on wavepacket width; scalar couplings are as important as the derivative couplings that are usually interpreted to depend on vibrational velocity in semiclassical curve crossing or surface hopping theories. A colored visualization scheme that fully characterizes the non-adiabatic states using the exact factorization is developed. The nonadiabatic states in this nested funnel have nodeless vibrational factors with strongly avoided zeroes in their vibrational probability densities. Vibronic dynamics are visualized through the vibrational coordinate dependent density of the time-dependent dipole moment in free induction decay. Vibrational motion is amplified by the nonadiabatic couplings, with asymmetric and anisotropic motions that depend upon the excitation polarization in the molecular frame and can be reversed by a change in polarization. This generates a vibrational quantum beat anisotropy in excess of 2/5. The amplitude of vibrational motion can be larger than that on the uncoupled potentials, and the electronic population transfer is maximized within one vibrational period. Most of these dynamics are missed by the adiabatic approximation, and some electronic and vibrational motions are completely suppressed by the Condon approximation of a coordinate-independent transition dipole between adiabatic states. For all initial conditions investigated, the initial nonadiabatic electronic motion is driven towards the lower adiabatic state, and criteria for this directed motion are discussed.

Detection of density dependence requires density manipulations and calculation of lambda.

PubMed

Fowler, N L; Overath, R Deborah; Pease, Craig M

2006-03-01

To investigate density-dependent population regulation in the perennial bunchgrass Bouteloua rigidiseta, we experimentally manipulated density by removing adults or adding seeds to replicate quadrats in a natural population for three annual intervals. We monitored the adjacent control quadrats for 14 annual intervals. We constructed a population projection matrix for each quadrat in each interval, calculated lambda, and did a life table response experiment (LTRE) analysis. We tested the effects of density upon lambda by comparing experimental and control quadrats, and by an analysis of the 15-year observational data set. As measured by effects on lambda and on N(t+1/Nt in the experimental treatments, negative density dependence was strong: the population was being effectively regulated. The relative contributions of different matrix elements to treatment effect on lambda differed among years and treatments; overall the pattern was one of small contributions by many different life cycle stages. In contrast, density dependence could not be detected using only the observational (control quadrats) data, even though this data set covered a much longer time span. Nor did experimental effects on separate matrix elements reach statistical significance. These results suggest that ecologists may fail to detect density dependence when it is present if they have only descriptive, not experimental, data, do not have data for the entire life cycle, or analyze life cycle components separately.

Angle-dependent strong-field molecular ionization rates with tuned range-separated time-dependent density functional theory.

PubMed

Sissay, Adonay; Abanador, Paul; Mauger, François; Gaarde, Mette; Schafer, Kenneth J; Lopata, Kenneth

2016-09-07

Strong-field ionization and the resulting electronic dynamics are important for a range of processes such as high harmonic generation, photodamage, charge resonance enhanced ionization, and ionization-triggered charge migration. Modeling ionization dynamics in molecular systems from first-principles can be challenging due to the large spatial extent of the wavefunction which stresses the accuracy of basis sets, and the intense fields which require non-perturbative time-dependent electronic structure methods. In this paper, we develop a time-dependent density functional theory approach which uses a Gaussian-type orbital (GTO) basis set to capture strong-field ionization rates and dynamics in atoms and small molecules. This involves propagating the electronic density matrix in time with a time-dependent laser potential and a spatial non-Hermitian complex absorbing potential which is projected onto an atom-centered basis set to remove ionized charge from the simulation. For the density functional theory (DFT) functional we use a tuned range-separated functional LC-PBE*, which has the correct asymptotic 1/r form of the potential and a reduced delocalization error compared to traditional DFT functionals. Ionization rates are computed for hydrogen, molecular nitrogen, and iodoacetylene under various field frequencies, intensities, and polarizations (angle-dependent ionization), and the results are shown to quantitatively agree with time-dependent Schrödinger equation and strong-field approximation calculations. This tuned DFT with GTO method opens the door to predictive all-electron time-dependent density functional theory simulations of ionization and ionization-triggered dynamics in molecular systems using tuned range-separated hybrid functionals.

Angle-dependent strong-field molecular ionization rates with tuned range-separated time-dependent density functional theory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sissay, Adonay; Abanador, Paul; Mauger, François

2016-09-07

Strong-field ionization and the resulting electronic dynamics are important for a range of processes such as high harmonic generation, photodamage, charge resonance enhanced ionization, and ionization-triggered charge migration. Modeling ionization dynamics in molecular systems from first-principles can be challenging due to the large spatial extent of the wavefunction which stresses the accuracy of basis sets, and the intense fields which require non-perturbative time-dependent electronic structure methods. In this paper, we develop a time-dependent density functional theory approach which uses a Gaussian-type orbital (GTO) basis set to capture strong-field ionization rates and dynamics in atoms and small molecules. This involves propagatingmore » the electronic density matrix in time with a time-dependent laser potential and a spatial non-Hermitian complex absorbing potential which is projected onto an atom-centered basis set to remove ionized charge from the simulation. For the density functional theory (DFT) functional we use a tuned range-separated functional LC-PBE*, which has the correct asymptotic 1/r form of the potential and a reduced delocalization error compared to traditional DFT functionals. Ionization rates are computed for hydrogen, molecular nitrogen, and iodoacetylene under various field frequencies, intensities, and polarizations (angle-dependent ionization), and the results are shown to quantitatively agree with time-dependent Schrödinger equation and strong-field approximation calculations. This tuned DFT with GTO method opens the door to predictive all-electron time-dependent density functional theory simulations of ionization and ionization-triggered dynamics in molecular systems using tuned range-separated hybrid functionals.« less

Collective interaction of microscale matters in natural analogy: human cancer cells vs. microspheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, Sungsook; Lee, Sang Joon; Postech Team

2014-11-01

Collective behaviors have been considered both in living and lifeless things as a natural phenomenon. During the ordering process, a sudden and spontaneous transition is typically generated between an order and a disorder according to the population density of interacting elements. In a cellular level collective behavior, the cells are distributed in the characteristic patterns according to the population density and the mutual interaction of the individual cells undergo density-dependent diffusive motion. On the other hand, density-controlled surface-modified hollow microsphere suspension induces an overpopulation via buoyancy which provides a driving force to induce an assembly. The collective behaviors of the cells and microspheres in a designed liquid medium are explained in terms of the deviation from the interparticle distance distribution and the induced strength to organize the particle position in a specific distance range. as a result, microscale particulate matters exhibit high resemblance in their pair correlation and dynamical heterogeneity in the intermediate range between a single individual and an agglomerate. Therefore, it is suggested that biological systems are analogically explained to be dominated by physically interactive aspects.

Storm-time radiation belt electron dynamics: Repeatability in the outer radiation belt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, K. R.; Mann, I. R.; Rae, J.; Watt, C.; Boyd, A. J.; Turner, D. L.; Claudepierre, S. G.; Baker, D. N.; Spence, H. E.; Reeves, G. D.; Blake, J. B.; Fennell, J. F.

2017-12-01

During intervals of enhanced solar wind driving the outer radiation belt becomes extremely dynamic leading to geomagnetic storms. During these storms the flux of energetic electrons can vary by over 4 orders of magnitude. Despite recent advances in understanding the nature of competing storm-time electron loss and acceleration processes the dynamic behavior of the outer radiation belt remains poorly understood; the outer radiation belt can exhibit either no change, an enhancement, or depletion in radiation belt electrons. Using a new analysis of the total radiation belt electron content, calculated from the Van Allen probes phase space density (PSD), we statistically analyze the time-dependent and global response of the outer radiation belt during storms. We demonstrate that by removing adiabatic effects there is a clear and repeatable sequence of events in storm-time radiation belt electron dynamics. Namely, the relativistic (μ=1000 MeV/G) and ultra-relativistic (μ=4000 MeV/G) electron populations can be separated into two phases; an initial phase dominated by loss followed by a second phase dominated by acceleration. At lower energies, the radiation belt seed population of electrons (μ=150 MeV/G) shows no evidence of loss but rather a net enhancement during storms. Further, we investigate the dependence of electron dynamics as a function of the second adiabatic invariant, K. These results demonstrate a global coherency in the dynamics of the source, relativistic and ultra-relativistic electron populations as function of the second adiabatic invariant K. This analysis demonstrates two key aspects of storm-time radiation belt electron dynamics. First, the radiation belt responds repeatably to solar wind driving during geomagnetic storms. Second, the response of the radiation belt is energy dependent, relativistic electrons behaving differently than lower energy seed electrons. These results have important implications in radiation belt research. In particular, the repeatability in electron dynamics coupled with observations of processes leading to electron loss (EMIC waves) and acceleration (VLF or ULF waves) can be used to diagnose the relative importance of physical processes in radiation belt dynamics during storms.

Density-dependent home-range size revealed by spatially explicit capture–recapture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Efford, M.G.; Dawson, Deanna K.; Jhala, Y.V.; Qureshi, Q.

2016-01-01

The size of animal home ranges often varies inversely with population density among populations of a species. This fact has implications for population monitoring using spatially explicit capture–recapture (SECR) models, in which both the scale of home-range movements σ and population density D usually appear as parameters, and both may vary among populations. It will often be appropriate to model a structural relationship between population-specific values of these parameters, rather than to assume independence. We suggest re-parameterizing the SECR model using kp = σp √Dp, where kp relates to the degree of overlap between home ranges and the subscript p distinguishes populations. We observe that kp is often nearly constant for populations spanning a range of densities. This justifies fitting a model in which the separate kp are replaced by the single parameter k and σp is a density-dependent derived parameter. Continuous density-dependent spatial variation in σ may also be modelled, using a scaled non-Euclidean distance between detectors and the locations of animals. We illustrate these methods with data from automatic photography of tigers (Panthera tigris) across India, in which the variation is among populations, from mist-netting of ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapilla) in Maryland, USA, in which the variation is within a single population over time, and from live-trapping of brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) in New Zealand, modelling spatial variation within one population. Possible applications and limitations of the methods are discussed. A model in which kp is constant, while density varies, provides a parsimonious null model for SECR. The parameter k of the null model is a concise summary of the empirical relationship between home-range size and density that is useful in comparative studies. We expect deviations from this model, particularly the dependence of kp on covariates, to be biologically interesting.

Femtosecond excitation tuning and site energy memory of population transfer in poly(p-phenylenevinylene): Gated luminescence experiments and simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperling, J.; Milota, F.; Tortschanoff, A.; Warmuth, Ch.; Mollay, B.; Bässler, H.; Kauffmann, H. F.

2002-12-01

We present a comprehensive experimental and computational study on fs-relaxational dynamics of optical excitations in the conjugated polymer poly(p-phenylenevinylene) (PPV) under selective excitation tuning conditions into the long-wavelength, low-vibrational S1ν=0-density-of-states (DOS). The dependence of single-wavelength luminescence kinetics and time-windowed spectral transients on distinct, initial excitation boundaries at 1.4 K and at room temperature was measured applying the luminescence up-conversion technique. The typical energy-dispersive intra-DOS energy transfer was simulated by a combination of static Monte Carlo method with a dynamical algorithm for solving the energy-space transport Master-Equation in population-space. For various, selective excitations that give rise to specific S1-population distributions in distinct spatial and energetic subspaces inside the DOS, simulations confirm the experimental results and show that the subsequent, energy-dissipative, multilevel relaxation is hierarchically constrained, and reveals a pronounced site-energy memory effect with a migration-threshold, characteristic of the (dressed) excitation dynamics in the disordered PPV many-body system.

A model for a spatially structured metapopulation accounting for within patch dynamics.

PubMed

Smith, Andrew G; McVinish, Ross; Pollett, Philip K

2014-01-01

We develop a stochastic metapopulation model that accounts for spatial structure as well as within patch dynamics. Using a deterministic approximation derived from a functional law of large numbers, we develop conditions for extinction and persistence of the metapopulation in terms of the birth, death and migration parameters. Interestingly, we observe the Allee effect in a metapopulation comprising two patches of greatly different sizes, despite there being decreasing patch specific per-capita birth rates. We show that the Allee effect is due to the way the migration rates depend on the population density of the patches. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

From individuals to populations to communities: a dynamic energy budget model of marine ecosystem size-spectrum including life history diversity.

PubMed

Maury, Olivier; Poggiale, Jean-Christophe

2013-05-07

Individual metabolism, predator-prey relationships, and the role of biodiversity are major factors underlying the dynamics of food webs and their response to environmental variability. Despite their crucial, complementary and interacting influences, they are usually not considered simultaneously in current marine ecosystem models. In an attempt to fill this gap and determine if these factors and their interaction are sufficient to allow realistic community structure and dynamics to emerge, we formulate a mathematical model of the size-structured dynamics of marine communities which integrates mechanistically individual, population and community levels. The model represents the transfer of energy generated in both time and size by an infinite number of interacting fish species spanning from very small to very large species. It is based on standard individual level assumptions of the Dynamic Energy Budget theory (DEB) as well as important ecological processes such as opportunistic size-based predation and competition for food. Resting on the inter-specific body-size scaling relationships of the DEB theory, the diversity of life-history traits (i.e. biodiversity) is explicitly integrated. The stationary solutions of the model as well as the transient solutions arising when environmental signals (e.g. variability of primary production and temperature) propagate through the ecosystem are studied using numerical simulations. It is shown that in the absence of density-dependent feedback processes, the model exhibits unstable oscillations. Density-dependent schooling probability and schooling-dependent predatory and disease mortalities are proposed to be important stabilizing factors allowing stationary solutions to be reached. At the community level, the shape and slope of the obtained quasi-linear stationary spectrum matches well with empirical studies. When oscillations of primary production are simulated, the model predicts that the variability propagates along the spectrum in a given frequency-dependent size range before decreasing for larger sizes. At the species level, the simulations show that small and large species dominate the community successively (small species being more abundant at small sizes and large species being more abundant at large sizes) and that the total biomass of a species decreases with its maximal size which again corroborates empirical studies. Our results indicate that the simultaneous consideration of individual growth and reproduction, size-structured trophic interactions, the diversity of life-history traits and a density-dependent stabilizing process allow realistic community structure and dynamics to emerge without any arbitrary prescription. As a logical consequence of our model construction and a basis for future studies, we define the function Φ as the relative contribution of each species to the total biomass of the ecosystem, for any given size. We argue that this function is a measure of the functional role of biodiversity characterizing the impact of the structure of the community (its species composition) on its function (the relative proportions of losses, dissipation and biological work). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population Dynamics of an Insect Herbivore over 32 Years are Driven by Precipitation and Host-Plant Effects: Testing Model Predictions.

PubMed

Price, Peter W; Hunter, Mark D

2015-06-01

The interaction between the arroyo willow, Salix lasiolepis Bentham, and its specialist herbivore, the arroyo willow stem-galling sawfly, Euura lasiolepis Smith (Hymenoptera: Tenthredinidae), was studied for 32 yr in Flagstaff, AZ, emphasizing a mechanistic understanding of insect population dynamics. Long-term weather records were evaluated to provide a climatic context for this study. Previously, predictive models of sawfly dynamics were developed from estimates of sawfly gall density made between 1981 and 2002; one model each for drier and wetter sites. Predictor variables in these models included winter precipitation and the Palmer Drought Severity Index, which impact the willow growth, with strong bottom-up effects on sawflies. We now evaluate original model predictions of sawfly population dynamics using new data (from 2003-2012). Additionally, willow resources were evaluated in 1986 and in 2012, using as criteria clone area, shoot density, and shoot length. The dry site model accounted for 40% of gall population density variation between 2003 and 2012 (69% over the 32 yr), providing strong support for the bottom-up, mechanistic hypothesis that water supply to willow hosts impacts sawfly populations. The current drying trend stressed willow clones: in drier sites, willow resources declined and gall density decreased by 98%. The wet site model accounted for 23% of variation in gall population density between 2003 and 2012 (48% over 30 yr), consistent with less water limitation. Nonetheless, gall populations were reduced by 72%. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Detectability of landscape effects on recolonization increases with regional population density

PubMed Central

Liman, Anna-Sara; Dalin, Peter; Björkman, Christer

2015-01-01

Variation in population size over time can influence our ability to identify landscape-moderated differences in community assembly. To date, however, most studies at the landscape scale only cover snapshots in time, thereby overlooking the temporal dynamics of populations and communities. In this paper, we present data that illustrate how temporal variation in population density at a regional scale can influence landscape-moderated variation in recolonization and population buildup in disturbed habitat patches. Four common insect species, two omnivores and two herbivores, were monitored over 8 years in 10 willow short-rotation coppice bio-energy stands with a four-year disturbance regime (coppice cycle). The population densities in these regularly disturbed stands were compared to densities in 17 undisturbed natural Salix cinerea (grey willow) stands in the same region. A time series approach was used, utilizing the natural variation between years to statistically model recolonization as a function of landscape composition under two different levels of regional density. Landscape composition, i.e. relative amount of forest vs. open agricultural habitats, largely determined the density of re-colonizing populations following willow coppicing in three of the four species. However, the impact of landscape composition was not detectable in years with low regional density. Our results illustrate that landscape-moderated recolonization can change over time and that considering the temporal dynamics of populations may be crucial when designing and evaluating studies at landscape level. PMID:26257881

Detectability of landscape effects on recolonization increases with regional population density.

PubMed

Liman, Anna-Sara; Dalin, Peter; Björkman, Christer

2015-07-01

Variation in population size over time can influence our ability to identify landscape-moderated differences in community assembly. To date, however, most studies at the landscape scale only cover snapshots in time, thereby overlooking the temporal dynamics of populations and communities. In this paper, we present data that illustrate how temporal variation in population density at a regional scale can influence landscape-moderated variation in recolonization and population buildup in disturbed habitat patches. Four common insect species, two omnivores and two herbivores, were monitored over 8 years in 10 willow short-rotation coppice bio-energy stands with a four-year disturbance regime (coppice cycle). The population densities in these regularly disturbed stands were compared to densities in 17 undisturbed natural Salix cinerea (grey willow) stands in the same region. A time series approach was used, utilizing the natural variation between years to statistically model recolonization as a function of landscape composition under two different levels of regional density. Landscape composition, i.e. relative amount of forest vs. open agricultural habitats, largely determined the density of re-colonizing populations following willow coppicing in three of the four species. However, the impact of landscape composition was not detectable in years with low regional density. Our results illustrate that landscape-moderated recolonization can change over time and that considering the temporal dynamics of populations may be crucial when designing and evaluating studies at landscape level.

Population Dynamics of Dactylella oviparasitica and Heterodera schachtii: Toward a Decision Model for Sugar Beet Planting

PubMed Central

Yang, Jiue-in; Benecke, Scott; Jeske, Daniel R.; Rocha, Fernando S.; Smith Becker, Jennifer; Timper, Patricia; Ole Becker, J.

2012-01-01

A series of experiments were performed to examine the population dynamics of the sugarbeet cyst nematode, Heterodera schachtii, and the nematophagus fungus Dactylella oviparasitica. After two nematode generations, the population densities of H. schachtii were measured in relation to various initial infestation densities of both D. oviparasitica and H. schachtii. In general, higher initial population densities of D. oviparasitica were associated with lower final population densities of H. schachtii. Regression models showed that the initial densities of D. oviparasitica were only significant when predicting the final densities of H. schachtii J2 and eggs as well as fungal egg parasitism, while the initial densities of J2 were significant for all final H. schachtii population density measurements. We also showed that the densities of H. schachtii-associated D. oviparasitica fluctuate greatly, with rRNA gene numbers going from zero in most field-soil-collected cysts to an average of 4.24 x 108 in mature females isolated directly from root surfaces. Finally, phylogenetic analysis of rRNA genes suggested that D. oviparasitica belongs to a clade of nematophagous fungi that includes Arkansas Fungus strain L (ARF-L) and that these fungi are widely distributed. We anticipate that these findings will provide foundational data facilitating the development of more effective decision models for sugar beet planting. PMID:23481664

Evolution in population parameters: density-dependent selection or density-dependent fitness?

PubMed

Travis, Joseph; Leips, Jeff; Rodd, F Helen

2013-05-01

Density-dependent selection is one of earliest topics of joint interest to both ecologists and evolutionary biologists and thus occupies an important position in the histories of these disciplines. This joint interest is driven by the fact that density-dependent selection is the simplest form of feedback between an ecological effect of an organism's own making (crowding due to sustained population growth) and the selective response to the resulting conditions. This makes density-dependent selection perhaps the simplest process through which we see the full reciprocity between ecology and evolution. In this article, we begin by tracing the history of studying the reciprocity between ecology and evolution, which we see as combining the questions of evolutionary ecology with the assumptions and approaches of ecological genetics. In particular, density-dependent fitness and density-dependent selection were critical concepts underlying ideas about adaptation to biotic selection pressures and the coadaptation of interacting species. However, theory points to a critical distinction between density-dependent fitness and density-dependent selection in their influences on complex evolutionary and ecological interactions among coexisting species. Although density-dependent fitness is manifestly evident in empirical studies, evidence of density-dependent selection is much less common. This leads to the larger question of how prevalent and important density-dependent selection might really be. Life-history variation in the least killifish Heterandria formosa appears to reflect the action of density-dependent selection, and yet compelling evidence is elusive, even in this well-studied system, which suggests some important challenges for understanding density-driven feedbacks between ecology and evolution.

Dynamics of habitat selection in birds: adaptive response to nest predation depends on multiple factors.

PubMed

Devries, J H; Clark, R G; Armstrong, L M

2018-05-01

According to theory, habitat selection by organisms should reflect underlying habitat-specific fitness consequences and, in birds, reproductive success has a strong impact on population growth in many species. Understanding processes affecting habitat selection also is critically important for guiding conservation initiatives. Northern pintails (Anas acuta) are migratory, temperate-nesting birds that breed in greatest concentrations in the prairies of North America and their population remains below conservation goals. Habitat loss and changing land use practices may have decoupled formerly reliable fitness cues with respect to nest habitat choices. We used data from 62 waterfowl nesting study sites across prairie Canada (1997-2009) to examine nest survival, a primary fitness metric, at multiple scales, in combination with estimates of habitat selection (i.e., nests versus random points), to test for evidence of adaptive habitat choices. We used the same habitat covariates in both analyses. Pintail nest survival varied with nest initiation date, nest habitat, pintail breeding pair density, landscape composition and annual moisture. Selection of nesting habitat reflected patterns in nest survival in some cases, indicating adaptive selection, but strength of habitat selection varied seasonally and depended on population density and landscape composition. Adaptive selection was most evident late in the breeding season, at low breeding densities and in cropland-dominated landscapes. Strikingly, at high breeding density, habitat choice appears to become maladaptive relative to nest predation. At larger spatial scales, the relative availability of habitats with low versus high nest survival, and changing land use practices, may limit the reproductive potential of pintails.

Clustering Effect on the Dynamics in a Spatial Rock-Paper-Scissors System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashimoto, Tsuyoshi; Sato, Kazunori; Ichinose, Genki; Miyazaki, Rinko; Tainaka, Kei-ichi

2018-01-01

The lattice dynamics for rock-paper-scissors games is related to population theories in ecology. In most cases, simulations are performed by local and global interactions. It is known in the former case that the dynamics is usually stable. We find two types of non-random distributions in the stationary state. One is a cluster formation of endangered species: when the density of a species approaches zero, its clumping degree diverges to infinity. The other is the strong aggregations of high-density species. Such spatial pattern formations play important roles in population dynamics.

Generation separation in simple structured life cycles: models and 48 years of field data on a tea tortrix moth.

PubMed

Yamanaka, Takehiko; Nelson, William A; Uchimura, Koichiro; Bjørnstad, Ottar N

2012-01-01

Population cycles have fascinated ecologists since the early nineteenth century, and the dynamics of insect populations have been central to understanding the intrinsic and extrinsic biological processes responsible for these cycles. We analyzed an extraordinary long-term data set (every 5 days for 48 years) of a tea tortrix moth (Adoxophyes honmai) that exhibits two dominant cycles: an annual cycle with a conspicuous pattern of four or five single-generation cycles superimposed on it. General theory offers several candidate mechanisms for generation cycles. To evaluate these, we construct and parameterize a series of temperature-dependent, stage-structured models that include intraspecific competition, parasitism, mate-finding Allee effects, and adult senescence, all in the context of a seasonal environment. By comparing the observed dynamics with predictions from the models, we find that even weak larval competition in the presence of seasonal temperature forcing predicts the two cycles accurately. None of the other mechanisms predicts the dynamics. Detailed dissection of the results shows that a short reproductive life span and differential winter mortality among stages are the additional life-cycle characteristics that permit the sustained cycles. Our general modeling approach is applicable to a wide range of organisms with temperature-dependent life histories and is likely to prove particularly useful in temperate systems where insect pest outbreaks are both density and temperature dependent. © 2011 by The University of Chicago.

The influence of density on adults and juveniles of the estuarine fish, the sheepshead minnow (cyprinodon variegatus)

EPA Science Inventory

The relationship between population density and demographic rates (e.g. survival, reproduction, growth) is critical to understand population dynamics and has been widely studied in fishes. Estuarine species are regularly exposed to dramatic changes in density with daily, monthly,...

Effects of prey density, temperature and predator diversity on nonconsumptive predator-driven mortality in a freshwater food web.

PubMed

Veselý, Lukáš; Boukal, David S; Buřič, Miloš; Kozák, Pavel; Kouba, Antonín; Sentis, Arnaud

2017-12-22

Nonconsumptive predator-driven mortality (NCM), defined as prey mortality due to predation that does not result in prey consumption, is an underestimated component of predator-prey interactions with possible implications for population dynamics and ecosystem functioning. However, the biotic and abiotic factors influencing this mortality component remain largely unexplored, leaving a gap in our understanding of the impacts of environmental change on ecological communities. We investigated the effects of temperature, prey density, and predator diversity and density on NCM in an aquatic food web module composed of dragonfly larvae (Aeshna cyanea) and marbled crayfish (Procambarus fallax f. virginalis) preying on common carp (Cyprinus carpio) fry. We found that NCM increased with prey density and depended on the functional diversity and density of the predator community. Warming significantly reduced NCM only in the dragonfly larvae but the magnitude depended on dragonfly larvae density. Our results indicate that energy transfer across trophic levels is more efficient due to lower NCM in functionally diverse predator communities, at lower resource densities and at higher temperatures. This suggests that environmental changes such as climate warming and reduced resource availability could increase the efficiency of energy transfer in food webs only if functionally diverse predator communities are conserved.

Discrete and Continuum Approximations for Collective Cell Migration in a Scratch Assay with Cell Size Dynamics.

PubMed

Matsiaka, Oleksii M; Penington, Catherine J; Baker, Ruth E; Simpson, Matthew J

2018-04-01

Scratch assays are routinely used to study the collective spreading of cell populations. In general, the rate at which a population of cells spreads is driven by the combined effects of cell migration and proliferation. To examine the effects of cell migration separately from the effects of cell proliferation, scratch assays are often performed after treating the cells with a drug that inhibits proliferation. Mitomycin-C is a drug that is commonly used to suppress cell proliferation in this context. However, in addition to suppressing cell proliferation, mitomycin-C also causes cells to change size during the experiment, as each cell in the population approximately doubles in size as a result of treatment. Therefore, to describe a scratch assay that incorporates the effects of cell-to-cell crowding, cell-to-cell adhesion, and dynamic changes in cell size, we present a new stochastic model that incorporates these mechanisms. Our agent-based stochastic model takes the form of a system of Langevin equations that is the system of stochastic differential equations governing the evolution of the population of agents. We incorporate a time-dependent interaction force that is used to mimic the dynamic increase in size of the agents. To provide a mathematical description of the average behaviour of the stochastic model we present continuum limit descriptions using both a standard mean-field approximation and a more sophisticated moment dynamics approximation that accounts for the density of agents and density of pairs of agents in the stochastic model. Comparing the accuracy of the two continuum descriptions for a typical scratch assay geometry shows that the incorporation of agent growth in the system is associated with a decrease in accuracy of the standard mean-field description. In contrast, the moment dynamics description provides a more accurate prediction of the evolution of the scratch assay when the increase in size of individual agents is included in the model.

Periodic matrix models for seasonal dynamics of structured populations with application to a seabird population.

PubMed

Cushing, J M; Henson, Shandelle M

2018-02-03

For structured populations with an annual breeding season, life-stage interactions and behavioral tactics may occur on a faster time scale than that of population dynamics. Motivated by recent field studies of the effect of rising sea surface temperature (SST) on within-breeding-season behaviors in colonial seabirds, we formulate and analyze a general class of discrete-time matrix models designed to account for changes in behavioral tactics within the breeding season and their dynamic consequences at the population level across breeding seasons. As a specific example, we focus on egg cannibalism and the daily reproductive synchrony observed in seabirds. Using the model, we investigate circumstances under which these life history tactics can be beneficial or non-beneficial at the population level in light of the expected continued rise in SST. Using bifurcation theoretic techniques, we study the nature of non-extinction, seasonal cycles as a function of environmental resource availability as they are created upon destabilization of the extinction state. Of particular interest are backward bifurcations in that they typically create strong Allee effects in population models which, in turn, lead to the benefit of possible (initial condition dependent) survival in adverse environments. We find that positive density effects (component Allee effects) due to increased adult survival from cannibalism and the propensity of females to synchronize daily egg laying can produce a strong Allee effect due to a backward bifurcation.

Population Density and Seasonality Effects on Sin Nombre Virus Transmission in North American Deermice (Peromyscus maniculatus) in Outdoor Enclosures

PubMed Central

Bagamian, Karoun H.; Douglass, Richard J.; Alvarado, Arlene; Kuenzi, Amy J.; Amman, Brian R.; Waller, Lance A.; Mills, James N.

2012-01-01

Surveys of wildlife host-pathogen systems often document clear seasonal variation in transmission; conclusions concerning the relationship between host population density and transmission vary. In the field, effects of seasonality and population density on natural disease cycles are challenging to measure independently, but laboratory experiments may poorly reflect what happens in nature. Outdoor manipulative experiments are an alternative that controls for some variables in a relatively natural environment. Using outdoor enclosures, we tested effects of North American deermouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) population density and season on transmission dynamics of Sin Nombre hantavirus. In early summer, mid-summer, late summer, and fall 2007–2008, predetermined numbers of infected and uninfected adult wild deermice were released into enclosures and trapped weekly or bi-weekly. We documented 18 transmission events and observed significant seasonal effects on transmission, wounding frequency, and host breeding condition. Apparent differences in transmission incidence or wounding frequency between high- and low-density treatments were not statistically significant. However, high host density was associated with a lower proportion of males with scrotal testes. Seasonality may have a stronger influence on disease transmission dynamics than host population density, and density effects cannot be considered independent of seasonality. PMID:22768034

Functional response of wolves preying on barren-ground caribou in a multiple-prey ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dale, B.W.; Adams, Layne G.; Bowyer, R.T.

1994-01-01

1. We investigated the functional response of wolves (Canis lupus) to varying abundance of ungulate prey to test the hypothesis that switching from alternate prey to preferred prey results in regulation of a caribou (Rangifer tarandus) population at low densities. 2. We determined prey selection, kill rates, and prey abundance for four wolf packs during three 30-day periods in March 1989, March 1990, November 1990, and created a simple discrete model to evaluate the potential for the expected numerical and observed functional responses of wolves to regulate caribou populations. 3. We observed a quickly decelerating type II functional response that, in the absence of numerical response, implicates an anti-regulatory effect of wolf predation on barren-ground caribou dynamics. 4. There was little potential for regulation caused by the multiplicative effect of increasing functional and numerical responses because of presence of alternative prey. This resulted in high wolf:caribou ratios at low prey densities which precluded the effects of an increasing functional response. 5. Inversely density-dependent predation by other predators, such as bears, reduces the potential for predators to regulate caribou populations at low densities, and small reductions in predation by one predator may have disproportionately large effects on the total predation rate.

Modeling ultrafast solvated electronic dynamics using time-dependent density functional theory and polarizable continuum model.

PubMed

Liang, Wenkel; Chapman, Craig T; Ding, Feizhi; Li, Xiaosong

2012-03-01

A first-principles solvated electronic dynamics method is introduced. Solvent electronic degrees of freedom are coupled to the time-dependent electronic density of a solute molecule by means of the implicit reaction field method, and the entire electronic system is propagated in time. This real-time time-dependent approach, incorporating the polarizable continuum solvation model, is shown to be very effective in describing the dynamical solvation effect in the charge transfer process and yields a consistent absorption spectrum in comparison to the conventional linear response results in solution. © 2012 American Chemical Society

Modeling metapopulation dynamics for single species of seabirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buckley, P.A.; Downer, R.; McCullough, D.R.; Barrett, R.H.

1992-01-01

Seabirds share many characteristics setting them apart from other birds. Importantly, they breed more or less obligatorily in local clusters of colonies that can move regularly from site to site, and they routinely exchange breeders. The properties of such metapopulations have only recently begun to be examined, often with models that are occupancy-based (using only colony presence or absence data) and deterministic (using single, empirically determined values for each of several population biology parameters). Some recent models are now frequency-based (using actual population sizes at each site), as well as stochastic (randomly varying critical parameters between biologically realistic limits), yielding better estimates of the behavior of future populations. Using two such models designed to quantify relative risks of population changes under different future scenarios (RAMAS/stage and RAMAS/space), we have examined probable future populations dynamics for three hypothetical seabirds -- an albatross, a cormorant, and a tern. With real parameters and ranges of values we alternatively modelled each species with and without density dependence, as well as with their numbers in a single, large colony, or in many smaller ones, distributed evenly or lognormally. We produced a series of species-typical lines for different population risks over the 50 years we simulated. We call these curves Instantaneous Threat Assessments (ITAs), and their shapes mirror the varying life history characteristics of our three species. We also demonstrated (by a process known as sensitivity analysis) that the most important parameters determining future population fates of all three species were correlation of mean growth rate among colonies; dispersal rate of present and future breeders; subadult survivorship; and the number of subpopulations (=colonies) - in roughly that descending order of importance. In addition, density dependence was found to markedly alter ITA line shape and position, dramatically in the tern. Finally, we show that for each of our three seabirds, a substantial reduction in the risk of the entire population's going to extinction was provided by a metapopulation (i.e. colonial) breeding structure -- thus comfortably confirming what avian ecologists have long known but about which population modellers are somtimes still unsure.

Double Trouble at High Density: Cross-Level Test of Resource-Related Adaptive Plasticity and Crowding-Related Fitness

PubMed Central

Gergs, André; Preuss, Thomas G.; Palmqvist, Annemette

2014-01-01

Population size is often regulated by negative feedback between population density and individual fitness. At high population densities, animals run into double trouble: they might concurrently suffer from overexploitation of resources and also from negative interference among individuals regardless of resource availability, referred to as crowding. Animals are able to adapt to resource shortages by exhibiting a repertoire of life history and physiological plasticities. In addition to resource-related plasticity, crowding might lead to reduced fitness, with consequences for individual life history. We explored how different mechanisms behind resource-related plasticity and crowding-related fitness act independently or together, using the water flea Daphnia magna as a case study. For testing hypotheses related to mechanisms of plasticity and crowding stress across different biological levels, we used an individual-based population model that is based on dynamic energy budget theory. Each of the hypotheses, represented by a sub-model, is based on specific assumptions on how the uptake and allocation of energy are altered under conditions of resource shortage or crowding. For cross-level testing of different hypotheses, we explored how well the sub-models fit individual level data and also how well they predict population dynamics under different conditions of resource availability. Only operating resource-related and crowding-related hypotheses together enabled accurate model predictions of D. magna population dynamics and size structure. Whereas this study showed that various mechanisms might play a role in the negative feedback between population density and individual life history, it also indicated that different density levels might instigate the onset of the different mechanisms. This study provides an example of how the integration of dynamic energy budget theory and individual-based modelling can facilitate the exploration of mechanisms behind the regulation of population size. Such understanding is important for assessment, management and the conservation of populations and thereby biodiversity in ecosystems. PMID:24626228

Population dynamics, structure and behavior of Anopheles darlingi in a rural settlement in the Amazon rainforest of Acre, Brazil

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Anopheles darlingi is the major vector of malaria in South America, and its behavior and distribution has epidemiological importance to biomedical research. In Brazil, An. darlingi is found in the northern area of the Amazon basin, where 99.5% of the disease is reported. Methods The study area, known as Ramal do Granada, is a rural settlement inside the Amazon basin in the state of Acre. Population variations and density have been analysed by species behaviour, and molecular analysis has been measured by ND4 mitochondrial gene sequencing. Results The results show higher density in collections near a recent settlement, suggesting that a high level of colonization decreases the vector presence. The biting activity showed higher activity at twilight and major numbers of mosquitos in the remaining hours of the night in months of high density. From a sample of 110 individual mosquitoes, 18 different haplotypes were presented with a diversity index of 0.895, which is higher than that found in other Anopheles studies. Conclusions An. darlingi depends on forested regions for their larval and adult survival. In months with higher population density, the presence of mosquitoes persisted in the second part of the night, increasing the vector capacity of the species. Despite the intra-population variation in the transition to rainy season, the seasonal distribution of haplotypes shows no change in the structure population of An. darlingi. PMID:21702964

Implications of Fine-Grained Habitat Fragmentation and Road Mortality for Jaguar Conservation in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil.

PubMed

Cullen, Laury; Stanton, Jessica C; Lima, Fernando; Uezu, Alexandre; Perilli, Miriam L L; Akçakaya, H Reşit

2016-01-01

Jaguar (Panthera onca) populations in the Upper Paraná River, in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest region, live in a landscape that includes highly fragmented areas as well as relatively intact ones. We developed a model of jaguar habitat suitability in this region, and based on this habitat model, we developed a spatially structured metapopulation model of the jaguar populations in this area to analyze their viability, the potential impact of road mortality on the populations' persistence, and the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation. In more highly fragmented populations, density of jaguars per unit area is lower and density of roads per jaguar is higher. The populations with the most fragmented habitat were predicted to have much lower persistence in the next 100 years when the model included no dispersal, indicating that the persistence of these populations are dependent to a large extent on dispersal from other populations. This, in turn, indicates that the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation may lead to source-sink dynamics, whereby populations with highly fragmented habitat are maintained only by dispersal from populations with less fragmented habitat. This study demonstrates the utility of linking habitat and demographic models in assessing impacts on species living in fragmented landscapes.

Implications of Fine-Grained Habitat Fragmentation and Road Mortality for Jaguar Conservation in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil

PubMed Central

Cullen, Laury; Stanton, Jessica C.; Lima, Fernando; Uezu, Alexandre; Perilli, Miriam L. L.; Akçakaya, H. Reşit

2016-01-01

Jaguar (Panthera onca) populations in the Upper Paraná River, in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest region, live in a landscape that includes highly fragmented areas as well as relatively intact ones. We developed a model of jaguar habitat suitability in this region, and based on this habitat model, we developed a spatially structured metapopulation model of the jaguar populations in this area to analyze their viability, the potential impact of road mortality on the populations' persistence, and the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation. In more highly fragmented populations, density of jaguars per unit area is lower and density of roads per jaguar is higher. The populations with the most fragmented habitat were predicted to have much lower persistence in the next 100 years when the model included no dispersal, indicating that the persistence of these populations are dependent to a large extent on dispersal from other populations. This, in turn, indicates that the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation may lead to source-sink dynamics, whereby populations with highly fragmented habitat are maintained only by dispersal from populations with less fragmented habitat. This study demonstrates the utility of linking habitat and demographic models in assessing impacts on species living in fragmented landscapes. PMID:27973584

Population ecology of insect invasions and their management

Treesearch

Andrew M. Liebhold; Patrick C. Tobin

2008-01-01

During the establishment phase of a biological invasion, population dynamics are strongly influenced by Allee effects and stochastic dynamics, both of which may lead to extinction of low-density populations. Allee effects refer to a decline in population growth rate with a decline in abundance and can arise from various mechanisms. Strategies to eradicate newly...

Boundedness and global stability of the two-predator and one-prey models with nonlinear prey-taxis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jianping; Wang, Mingxin

2018-06-01

This paper concerns the reaction-diffusion systems modeling the population dynamics of two predators and one prey with nonlinear prey-taxis. We first investigate the global existence and boundedness of the unique classical solution for the general model. Then, we study the global stabilities of nonnegative spatially homogeneous equilibria for an explicit system with type I functional responses and density-dependent death rates for the predators and logistic growth for the prey. Moreover, the convergence rates are also established.

Density-dependent regulation of population size in colonial breeders: Allee and buffer effects in the migratory Montagu's harrier.

PubMed

Soutullo, Alvaro; Limiñana, Rubén; Urios, Vicente; Surroca, Martín; A Gill, Jennifer

2006-09-01

Expanding populations offer an opportunity to uncover the processes driving spatial variation in distribution and abundance. Individual settlement decisions will be influenced by the availability and relative quality of patches, and by how these respond to changes in conspecific density. For example, conspecific presence can alter patch suitability through reductions in resource availability or territorial exclusion, leading to buffer effect patterns of disproportionate population expansion into poorer quality areas. However, conspecific presence can also enhance patch suitability through Allee effect processes, such as transmission of information about resources or improved predator detection and deterrence. Here, we explore the factors underlying the settlement pattern of a growing population of Montagu's harriers (Circus pygargus) in Spain. The population increased exponentially between 1981 and 2001, but stabilised between 2001 and 2004. This population increase occurred alongside a remarkable spatial expansion, with novel site use occurring prior to maximum densities in occupied sites being reached. However, no temporal trends in fecundity were observed and, within sites, average fecundity did not decline with increasing density. Across the population, variance in productivity did increase with population size, suggesting a complex pattern of density-dependent costs and benefits. We suggest that both Allee and buffer effects are operating in this system, with the benefits of conspecific presence counteracting density-dependent declines in resource availability or quality.

Global asymptotic stability of density dependent integral population projection models.

PubMed

Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Townley, Stuart

2012-02-01

Many stage-structured density dependent populations with a continuum of stages can be naturally modeled using nonlinear integral projection models. In this paper, we study a trichotomy of global stability result for a class of density dependent systems which include a Platte thistle model. Specifically, we identify those systems parameters for which zero is globally asymptotically stable, parameters for which there is a positive asymptotically stable equilibrium, and parameters for which there is no asymptotically stable equilibrium. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A regional-scale, high resolution dynamical malaria model that accounts for population density, climate and surface hydrology.

PubMed

Tompkins, Adrian M; Ermert, Volker

2013-02-18

The relative roles of climate variability and population related effects in malaria transmission could be better understood if regional-scale dynamical malaria models could account for these factors. A new dynamical community malaria model is introduced that accounts for the temperature and rainfall influences on the parasite and vector life cycles which are finely resolved in order to correctly represent the delay between the rains and the malaria season. The rainfall drives a simple but physically based representation of the surface hydrology. The model accounts for the population density in the calculation of daily biting rates. Model simulations of entomological inoculation rate and circumsporozoite protein rate compare well to data from field studies from a wide range of locations in West Africa that encompass both seasonal endemic and epidemic fringe areas. A focus on Bobo-Dioulasso shows the ability of the model to represent the differences in transmission rates between rural and peri-urban areas in addition to the seasonality of malaria. Fine spatial resolution regional integrations for Eastern Africa reproduce the malaria atlas project (MAP) spatial distribution of the parasite ratio, and integrations for West and Eastern Africa show that the model grossly reproduces the reduction in parasite ratio as a function of population density observed in a large number of field surveys, although it underestimates malaria prevalence at high densities probably due to the neglect of population migration. A new dynamical community malaria model is publicly available that accounts for climate and population density to simulate malaria transmission on a regional scale. The model structure facilitates future development to incorporate migration, immunity and interventions.

A regional-scale, high resolution dynamical malaria model that accounts for population density, climate and surface hydrology

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The relative roles of climate variability and population related effects in malaria transmission could be better understood if regional-scale dynamical malaria models could account for these factors. Methods A new dynamical community malaria model is introduced that accounts for the temperature and rainfall influences on the parasite and vector life cycles which are finely resolved in order to correctly represent the delay between the rains and the malaria season. The rainfall drives a simple but physically based representation of the surface hydrology. The model accounts for the population density in the calculation of daily biting rates. Results Model simulations of entomological inoculation rate and circumsporozoite protein rate compare well to data from field studies from a wide range of locations in West Africa that encompass both seasonal endemic and epidemic fringe areas. A focus on Bobo-Dioulasso shows the ability of the model to represent the differences in transmission rates between rural and peri-urban areas in addition to the seasonality of malaria. Fine spatial resolution regional integrations for Eastern Africa reproduce the malaria atlas project (MAP) spatial distribution of the parasite ratio, and integrations for West and Eastern Africa show that the model grossly reproduces the reduction in parasite ratio as a function of population density observed in a large number of field surveys, although it underestimates malaria prevalence at high densities probably due to the neglect of population migration. Conclusions A new dynamical community malaria model is publicly available that accounts for climate and population density to simulate malaria transmission on a regional scale. The model structure facilitates future development to incorporate migration, immunity and interventions. PMID:23419192

The temporal spectrum of adult mosquito population fluctuations: conceptual and modeling implications.

PubMed

Jian, Yun; Silvestri, Sonia; Brown, Jeff; Hickman, Rick; Marani, Marco

2014-01-01

An improved understanding of mosquito population dynamics under natural environmental forcing requires adequate field observations spanning the full range of temporal scales over which mosquito abundance fluctuates in natural conditions. Here we analyze a 9-year daily time series of uninterrupted observations of adult mosquito abundance for multiple mosquito species in North Carolina to identify characteristic scales of temporal variability, the processes generating them, and the representativeness of observations at different sampling resolutions. We focus in particular on Aedes vexans and Culiseta melanura and, using a combination of spectral analysis and modeling, we find significant population fluctuations with characteristic periodicity between 2 days and several years. Population dynamical modelling suggests that the observed fast fluctuations scales (2 days-weeks) are importantly affected by a varying mosquito activity in response to rapid changes in meteorological conditions, a process neglected in most representations of mosquito population dynamics. We further suggest that the range of time scales over which adult mosquito population variability takes place can be divided into three main parts. At small time scales (indicatively 2 days-1 month) observed population fluctuations are mainly driven by behavioral responses to rapid changes in weather conditions. At intermediate scales (1 to several month) environmentally-forced fluctuations in generation times, mortality rates, and density dependence determine the population characteristic response times. At longer scales (annual to multi-annual) mosquito populations follow seasonal and inter-annual environmental changes. We conclude that observations of adult mosquito populations should be based on a sub-weekly sampling frequency and that predictive models of mosquito abundance must include behavioral dynamics to separate the effects of a varying mosquito activity from actual changes in the abundance of the underlying population.

Theory of time-resolved photoelectron imaging. Comparison of a density functional with a time-dependent density functional approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Yoshi-ichi; Seideman, Tamar; Stener, Mauro

2004-01-01

Time-resolved photoelectron differential cross sections are computed within a quantum dynamical theory that combines a formally exact solution of the nuclear dynamics with density functional theory (DFT)-based approximations of the electronic dynamics. Various observables of time-resolved photoelectron imaging techniques are computed at the Kohn-Sham and at the time-dependent DFT levels. Comparison of the results serves to assess the reliability of the former method and hence its usefulness as an economic approach for time-domain photoelectron cross section calculations, that is applicable to complex polyatomic systems. Analysis of the matrix elements that contain the electronic dynamics provides insight into a previously unexplored aspect of femtosecond-resolved photoelectron imaging.

Effects of social organization, trap arrangement and density, sampling scale, and population density on bias in population size estimation using some common mark-recapture estimators.

PubMed

Gupta, Manan; Joshi, Amitabh; Vidya, T N C

2017-01-01

Mark-recapture estimators are commonly used for population size estimation, and typically yield unbiased estimates for most solitary species with low to moderate home range sizes. However, these methods assume independence of captures among individuals, an assumption that is clearly violated in social species that show fission-fusion dynamics, such as the Asian elephant. In the specific case of Asian elephants, doubts have been raised about the accuracy of population size estimates. More importantly, the potential problem for the use of mark-recapture methods posed by social organization in general has not been systematically addressed. We developed an individual-based simulation framework to systematically examine the potential effects of type of social organization, as well as other factors such as trap density and arrangement, spatial scale of sampling, and population density, on bias in population sizes estimated by POPAN, Robust Design, and Robust Design with detection heterogeneity. In the present study, we ran simulations with biological, demographic and ecological parameters relevant to Asian elephant populations, but the simulation framework is easily extended to address questions relevant to other social species. We collected capture history data from the simulations, and used those data to test for bias in population size estimation. Social organization significantly affected bias in most analyses, but the effect sizes were variable, depending on other factors. Social organization tended to introduce large bias when trap arrangement was uniform and sampling effort was low. POPAN clearly outperformed the two Robust Design models we tested, yielding close to zero bias if traps were arranged at random in the study area, and when population density and trap density were not too low. Social organization did not have a major effect on bias for these parameter combinations at which POPAN gave more or less unbiased population size estimates. Therefore, the effect of social organization on bias in population estimation could be removed by using POPAN with specific parameter combinations, to obtain population size estimates in a social species.

Effects of social organization, trap arrangement and density, sampling scale, and population density on bias in population size estimation using some common mark-recapture estimators

PubMed Central

Joshi, Amitabh; Vidya, T. N. C.

2017-01-01

Mark-recapture estimators are commonly used for population size estimation, and typically yield unbiased estimates for most solitary species with low to moderate home range sizes. However, these methods assume independence of captures among individuals, an assumption that is clearly violated in social species that show fission-fusion dynamics, such as the Asian elephant. In the specific case of Asian elephants, doubts have been raised about the accuracy of population size estimates. More importantly, the potential problem for the use of mark-recapture methods posed by social organization in general has not been systematically addressed. We developed an individual-based simulation framework to systematically examine the potential effects of type of social organization, as well as other factors such as trap density and arrangement, spatial scale of sampling, and population density, on bias in population sizes estimated by POPAN, Robust Design, and Robust Design with detection heterogeneity. In the present study, we ran simulations with biological, demographic and ecological parameters relevant to Asian elephant populations, but the simulation framework is easily extended to address questions relevant to other social species. We collected capture history data from the simulations, and used those data to test for bias in population size estimation. Social organization significantly affected bias in most analyses, but the effect sizes were variable, depending on other factors. Social organization tended to introduce large bias when trap arrangement was uniform and sampling effort was low. POPAN clearly outperformed the two Robust Design models we tested, yielding close to zero bias if traps were arranged at random in the study area, and when population density and trap density were not too low. Social organization did not have a major effect on bias for these parameter combinations at which POPAN gave more or less unbiased population size estimates. Therefore, the effect of social organization on bias in population estimation could be removed by using POPAN with specific parameter combinations, to obtain population size estimates in a social species. PMID:28306735

Spatial dynamics of invasion: the geometry of introduced species.

PubMed

Korniss, Gyorgy; Caraco, Thomas

2005-03-07

Many exotic species combine low probability of establishment at each introduction with rapid population growth once introduction does succeed. To analyse this phenomenon, we note that invaders often cluster spatially when rare, and consequently an introduced exotic's population dynamics should depend on locally structured interactions. Ecological theory for spatially structured invasion relies on deterministic approximations, and determinism does not address the observed uncertainty of the exotic-introduction process. We take a new approach to the population dynamics of invasion and, by extension, to the general question of invasibility in any spatial ecology. We apply the physical theory for nucleation of spatial systems to a lattice-based model of competition between plant species, a resident and an invader, and the analysis reaches conclusions that differ qualitatively from the standard ecological theories. Nucleation theory distinguishes between dynamics of single- and multi-cluster invasion. Low introduction rates and small system size produce single-cluster dynamics, where success or failure of introduction is inherently stochastic. Single-cluster invasion occurs only if the cluster reaches a critical size, typically preceded by a number of failed attempts. For this case, we identify the functional form of the probability distribution of time elapsing until invasion succeeds. Although multi-cluster invasion for sufficiently large systems exhibits spatial averaging and almost-deterministic dynamics of the global densities, an analytical approximation from nucleation theory, known as Avrami's law, describes our simulation results far better than standard ecological approximations.

The population ecology of male gametophytes: the link between pollination and seed production.

PubMed

Harder, Lawrence D; Aizen, Marcelo A; Richards, Shane A

2016-05-01

The fate of male gametophytes after pollen reaches stigmas links pollination to ovule fertilisation, governing subsequent siring success and seed production. Although male gametophyte performance primarily involves cellular processes, an ecological analogy may expose insights into the nature and implications of male gametophyte success. We elaborate this analogy theoretically and present empirical examples that illustrate associated insights. Specifically, we consider pollen loads on stigmas as localised populations subject to density-independent mortality and density-dependent processes as they traverse complex stylar environments. Different combinations of the timing of pollen-tube access to limiting stylar resources (simultaneous or sequential), the tube distribution among resources (repulsed or random) and the timing of density-independent mortality relative to competition (before or after) create signature relations of mean pollen-tube success and its variation among pistils to pollen receipt. Using novel nonlinear regression analyses (two-moment regression), we illustrate contrasting relations for two species, demonstrating that variety in these relations is a feature of reproductive diversity among angiosperms, rather than merely a theoretical curiosity. Thus, the details of male gametophyte ecology should shape sporophyte reproductive success and hence the dynamics and structure of angiosperm populations. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Predator effects on reef fish settlement depend on predator origin and recruit density.

PubMed

Benkwitt, Cassandra E

2017-04-01

During major life-history transitions, animals often experience high mortality rates due to predation, making predator avoidance particularly advantageous during these times. There is mixed evidence from a limited number of studies, however, regarding how predator presence influences settlement of coral-reef fishes and it is unknown how other potentially mediating factors, including predator origin (native vs. nonnative) or interactions among conspecific recruits, mediate the non-consumptive effects of predators on reef fish settlement. During a field experiment in the Caribbean, approximately 52% fewer mahogany snapper (Lutjanus mahogoni) recruited to reefs with a native predator (graysby grouper, Cephalopholis cruentata) than to predator-free control reefs and reefs with an invasive predator (red lionfish, Pterois volitans) regardless of predator diet. These results suggest that snapper recruits do not recognize nonnative lionfish as a threat. However, these effects depended on the density of conspecific recruits, with evidence that competition may limit the response of snapper to even native predators at the highest recruit densities. In contrast, there was no effect of predator presence or conspecific density on the recruitment of bicolor damselfish (Stegastes partitus). These context-dependent responses of coral-reef fishes to predators during settlement may influence individual survival and shape subsequent population and community dynamics. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Direct evidence that density-dependent regulation underpins the temporal stability of abundant species in a diverse animal community

PubMed Central

Henderson, Peter A.; Magurran, Anne E.

2014-01-01

To understand how ecosystems are structured and stabilized, and to identify when communities are at risk of damage or collapse, we need to know how the abundances of the taxa in the entire assemblage vary over ecologically meaningful timescales. Here, we present an analysis of species temporal variability within a single large vertebrate community. Using an exceptionally complete 33-year monthly time series following the dynamics of 81 species of fishes, we show that the most abundant species are least variable in terms of temporal biomass, because they are under density-dependent (negative feedback) regulation. At the other extreme, a relatively large number of low abundance transient species exhibit the greatest population variability. The high stability of the consistently common high abundance species—a result of density-dependence—is reflected in the observation that they consistently represent over 98% of total fish biomass. This leads to steady ecosystem nutrient and energy flux irrespective of the changes in species number and abundance among the large number of low abundance transient species. While the density-dependence of the core species ensures stability under the existing environmental regime, the pool of transient species may support long-term stability by replacing core species should environmental conditions change. PMID:25100702

A cat's tale: the impact of genetic restoration on Florida panther population dynamics and persistence.

PubMed

Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Onorato, David P; Jansen, Deborah; Oli, Madan K

2013-05-01

1. Genetic restoration has been suggested as a management tool for mitigating detrimental effects of inbreeding depression in small, inbred populations, but the demographic mechanisms underlying population-level responses to genetic restoration remain poorly understood. 2. We studied the dynamics and persistence of the endangered Florida panther Puma concolor coryi population and evaluated the potential influence of genetic restoration on population growth and persistence parameters. As part of the genetic restoration programme, eight female Texas pumas P. c. stanleyana were released into Florida panther habitat in southern Florida in 1995. 3. The overall asymptotic population growth rate (λ) was 1.04 (5th and 95th percentiles: 0.95-1.14), suggesting an increase in the panther population of approximately 4% per year. Considering the effects of environmental and demographic stochasticities and density-dependence, the probability that the population will fall below 10 panthers within 100 years was 0.072 (0-0.606). 4. Our results suggest that the population would have declined at 5% per year (λ = 0.95; 0.83-1.08) in the absence of genetic restoration. Retrospective life table response experiment analysis revealed that the positive effect of genetic restoration on survival of kittens was primarily responsible for the substantial growth of the panther population that would otherwise have been declining. 5. For comparative purposes, we also estimated probability of quasi-extinction under two scenarios - implementation of genetic restoration and no genetic restoration initiative - using the estimated abundance of panthers in 1995, the year genetic restoration was initiated. Assuming no density-dependence, the probability that the panther population would fall below 10 panthers by 2010 was 0.098 (0.002-0.332) for the restoration scenario and 0.445 (0.032-0.944) for the no restoration scenario, providing further evidence that the panther population would have faced a substantially higher risk of extinction if the genetic restoration initiative had not been implemented. 6. Our results, along with those reporting increases in population size and improvements in biomedical correlates of inbreeding depression, provide strong evidence that genetic restoration substantially contributed to the observed increases in the Florida panther population. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Intraspecific competition and density dependence of food consumption and growth in Arctic charr.

PubMed

Amundsen, Per-Arne; Knudsen, Rune; Klemetsen, Anders

2007-01-01

1. Intraspecific competition for restricted food resources is considered to play a fundamental part in density dependence of somatic growth and other population characteristics, but studies simultaneously addressing the interrelationships between population density, food acquisition and somatic growth have been missing. 2. We explored the food consumption and individual growth rates of Arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus in a long-term survey following a large-scale density manipulation experiment in a subarctic lake. 3. Prior to the initiation of the experiment, the population density was high and the somatic growth rates low, revealing a severely overcrowded and stunted fish population. 4. During the 6-year period of stock depletion the population density of Arctic charr was reduced with about 75%, resulting in an almost twofold increase in food consumption rates and enhanced individual growth rates of the fish. 5. Over the decade following the density manipulation experiment, the population density gradually rose to intermediate levels, accompanied by corresponding reductions in food consumption and somatic growth rates. 6. The study revealed negative relationships with population density for both food consumption and individual growth rates, reflecting a strong positive correlation between quantitative food intake and somatic growth rates. 7. Both the growth and consumption rate relationships with population density were well described by negative power curves, suggesting that large density perturbations are necessary to induce improved feeding conditions and growth rates in stunted fish populations. 8. The findings demonstrate that quantitative food consumption represents the connective link between population density and individual growth rates, apparently being highly influenced by intraspecific competition for limited resources.

Sociality, individual fitness and population dynamics of yellow-bellied marmots.

PubMed

Armitage, Kenneth B

2012-02-01

Social behaviour was proposed as a density-dependent intrinsic mechanism that could regulate an animal population by affecting reproduction and dispersal. Populations of the polygynous yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventris) fluctuate widely from year to year primarily driven by the number of weaned young. The temporal variation in projected population growth rate was driven mainly by changes in the age of first reproduction and fertility, which are affected by reproductive suppression. Dispersal is unrelated to population density, or the presence of the father; hence, neither of these limits population growth or acts as an intrinsic mechanism of population regulation; overall, intrinsic regulation seems unlikely. Sociality affects the likelihood of reproduction in that the annual probability of reproducing and the lifetime number of offspring are decreased by the number of older females and by the number of same-aged females present, but are increased by the number of younger adult females present. Recruitment of a yearling female is most likely when her mother is present; recruitment of philopatric females is much more important than immigration for increasing the number of adult female residents. Predation and overwinter mortality are the major factors limiting the number of resident adults. Social behaviour is not directed towards population regulation, but is best interpreted as functioning to maximize direct fitness. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Spatial and Temporal Variation in Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) Numbers in the Yogyakarta Area of Java, Indonesia, With Implications for Wolbachia Releases.

PubMed

Tantowijoyo, W; Arguni, E; Johnson, P; Budiwati, N; Nurhayati, P I; Fitriana, I; Wardana, S; Ardiansyah, H; Turley, A P; Ryan, P; O'Neill, S L; Hoffmann, A A

2016-01-01

of mosquito vector populations, particularly through Wolbachia endosymbionts. The success of these strategies depends on understanding the dynamics of vector populations. In preparation for Wolbachia releases around Yogyakarta, we have studied Aedes populations in five hamlets. Adult monitoring with BioGent- Sentinel (BG-S) traps indicated that hamlet populations had different dynamics across the year; while there was an increase in Aedes aegypti (L.) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse) numbers in the wet season, species abundance remained relatively stable in some hamlets but changed markedly (>2 fold) in others. Local rainfall a month prior to monitoring partly predicted numbers of Ae. aegypti but not Ae. albopictus. Site differences in population size indicated by BG-S traps were also evident in ovitrap data. Egg or larval collections with ovitraps repeated at the same location suggested spatial autocorrelation (<250 m) in the areas of the hamlets where Ae. aegypti numbers were high. Overall, there was a weak negative association (r<0.43) between Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus numbers in ovitraps when averaged across collections. Ae. albopictus numbers in ovitraps and BG-S traps were positively correlated with vegetation around areas where traps were placed, while Ae. aegypti were negatively correlated with this feature. These data inform intervention strategies by defining periods when mosquito densities are high, highlighting the importance of local site characteristics on populations, and suggesting relatively weak interactions between Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. They also indicate local areas within hamlets where consistently high mosquito densities may influence Wolbachia invasions and other interventions.

Regulating energy transfer of excited carriers and the case for excitation-induced hydrogen dissociation on hydrogenated graphene

PubMed Central

Bang, Junhyeok; Meng, Sheng; Sun, Yi-Yang; West, Damien; Wang, Zhiguo; Gao, Fei; Zhang, S. B.

2013-01-01

Understanding and controlling of excited carrier dynamics is of fundamental and practical importance, particularly in photochemistry and solar energy applications. However, theory of energy relaxation of excited carriers is still in its early stage. Here, using ab initio molecular dynamics (MD) coupled with time-dependent density functional theory, we show a coverage-dependent energy transfer of photoexcited carriers in hydrogenated graphene, giving rise to distinctively different ion dynamics. Graphene with sparsely populated H is difficult to dissociate due to inefficient transfer of the excitation energy into kinetic energy of the H. In contrast, H can easily desorb from fully hydrogenated graphane. The key is to bring down the H antibonding state to the conduction band minimum as the band gap increases. These results can be contrasted to those of standard ground-state MD that predict H in the sparse case should be much less stable than that in fully hydrogenated graphane. Our findings thus signify the importance of carrying out explicit electronic dynamics in excited-state simulations. PMID:23277576

Inferences about population dynamics from count data using multistate models: a comparison to capture–recapture approaches

PubMed Central

Zipkin, Elise F; Sillett, T Scott; Grant, Evan H Campbell; Chandler, Richard B; Royle, J Andrew

2014-01-01

Wildlife populations consist of individuals that contribute disproportionately to growth and viability. Understanding a population's spatial and temporal dynamics requires estimates of abundance and demographic rates that account for this heterogeneity. Estimating these quantities can be difficult, requiring years of intensive data collection. Often, this is accomplished through the capture and recapture of individual animals, which is generally only feasible at a limited number of locations. In contrast, N-mixture models allow for the estimation of abundance, and spatial variation in abundance, from count data alone. We extend recently developed multistate, open population N-mixture models, which can additionally estimate demographic rates based on an organism's life history characteristics. In our extension, we develop an approach to account for the case where not all individuals can be assigned to a state during sampling. Using only state-specific count data, we show how our model can be used to estimate local population abundance, as well as density-dependent recruitment rates and state-specific survival. We apply our model to a population of black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) that have been surveyed for 25 years on their breeding grounds at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. The intensive data collection efforts allow us to compare our estimates to estimates derived from capture–recapture data. Our model performed well in estimating population abundance and density-dependent rates of annual recruitment/immigration. Estimates of local carrying capacity and per capita recruitment of yearlings were consistent with those published in other studies. However, our model moderately underestimated annual survival probability of yearling and adult females and severely underestimates survival probabilities for both of these male stages. The most accurate and precise estimates will necessarily require some amount of intensive data collection efforts (such as capture–recapture). Integrated population models that combine data from both intensive and extensive sources are likely to be the most efficient approach for estimating demographic rates at large spatial and temporal scales. PMID:24634726

Density-dependent liquid nitromethane decomposition: molecular dynamics simulations based on ReaxFF.

PubMed

Rom, Naomi; Zybin, Sergey V; van Duin, Adri C T; Goddard, William A; Zeiri, Yehuda; Katz, Gil; Kosloff, Ronnie

2011-09-15

The decomposition mechanism of hot liquid nitromethane at various compressions was studied using reactive force field (ReaxFF) molecular dynamics simulations. A competition between two different initial thermal decomposition schemes is observed, depending on compression. At low densities, unimolecular C-N bond cleavage is the dominant route, producing CH(3) and NO(2) fragments. As density and pressure rise approaching the Chapman-Jouget detonation conditions (∼30% compression, >2500 K) the dominant mechanism switches to the formation of the CH(3)NO fragment via H-transfer and/or N-O bond rupture. The change in the decomposition mechanism of hot liquid NM leads to a different kinetic and energetic behavior, as well as products distribution. The calculated density dependence of the enthalpy change correlates with the change in initial decomposition reaction mechanism. It can be used as a convenient and useful global parameter for the detection of reaction dynamics. Atomic averaged local diffusion coefficients are shown to be sensitive to the reactions dynamics, and can be used to distinguish between time periods where chemical reactions occur and diffusion-dominated, nonreactive time periods. © 2011 American Chemical Society

Density-dependent host choice by disease vectors: epidemiological implications of the ideal free distribution.

PubMed

Basáñez, María-Gloria; Razali, Karina; Renz, Alfons; Kelly, David

2007-03-01

The proportion of vector blood meals taken on humans (the human blood index, h) appears as a squared term in classical expressions of the basic reproduction ratio (R(0)) for vector-borne infections. Consequently, R(0) varies non-linearly with h. Estimates of h, however, constitute mere snapshots of a parameter that is predicted, from evolutionary theory, to vary with vector and host abundance. We test this prediction using a population dynamics model of river blindness assuming that, before initiation of vector control or chemotherapy, recorded measures of vector density and human infection accurately represent endemic equilibrium. We obtain values of h that satisfy the condition that the effective reproduction ratio (R(e)) must equal 1 at equilibrium. Values of h thus obtained decrease with vector density, decrease with the vector:human ratio and make R(0) respond non-linearly rather than increase linearly with vector density. We conclude that if vectors are less able to obtain human blood meals as their density increases, antivectorial measures may not lead to proportional reductions in R(0) until very low vector levels are achieved. Density dependence in the contact rate of infectious diseases transmitted by insects may be an important non-linear process with implications for their epidemiology and control.

Effect of flow and active mixing on bacterial growth in a colon-like geometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cremer, Jonas; Segota, Igor; Arnoldini, Markus; Groisman, Alex; Hwa, Terence

The large intestine harbors bacteria from hundreds of species, with bacterial densities reaching up to 1012 cells per gram. Many different factors influence bacterial growth dynamics and thus bacterial density and microbiota composition. One dominant force is flow which can in principle lead to a washout of bacteria from the proximal colon. Active mixing by Contractions of the colonic wall together with bacterial growth might counteract such flow-forces and allow high bacterial densities to occur. As a step towards understanding bacterial growth in the presence of mixing and flow, we constructed an in-vitro setup where controlled wall-deformations of a channel emulate Contractions. We investigate growth along the channel under a steady nutrient inflow. In the limits of no or very frequent Contractions, the device behaves like a plug-flow reactor and a chemostat respectively. Depending on mixing and flow, we observe varying spatial gradients in bacterial density along the channel. Active mixing by deformations of the channel wall is shown to be crucial in maintaining a steady-state bacterial population in the presence of flow. The growth-dynamics is quantitatively captured by a simple mathematical model, with the effect of mixing described by an effective diffusion term.

Population dynamics of Dactylella oviparasitica and Heterodera schachtii: Toward a decision model for sugar beet planting

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A series of investigations were performed to examine the population dynamics of the sugarbeet cyst nematode, Heterodera schachtii, and the nematophagus fungus Dactylella oviparasitica. After two nematode generations, the population densities of H. schachtii were measured in relation to various initi...

Evaluating mallard adaptive management models with time series

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conn, P.B.; Kendall, W.L.

2004-01-01

Wildlife practitioners concerned with midcontinent mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) management in the United States have instituted a system of adaptive harvest management (AHM) as an objective format for setting harvest regulations. Under the AHM paradigm, predictions from a set of models that reflect key uncertainties about processes underlying population dynamics are used in coordination with optimization software to determine an optimal set of harvest decisions. Managers use comparisons of the predictive abilities of these models to gauge the relative truth of different hypotheses about density-dependent recruitment and survival, with better-predicting models giving more weight to the determination of harvest regulations. We tested the effectiveness of this strategy by examining convergence rates of 'predictor' models when the true model for population dynamics was known a priori. We generated time series for cases when the a priori model was 1 of the predictor models as well as for several cases when the a priori model was not in the model set. We further examined the addition of different levels of uncertainty into the variance structure of predictor models, reflecting different levels of confidence about estimated parameters. We showed that in certain situations, the model-selection process favors a predictor model that incorporates the hypotheses of additive harvest mortality and weakly density-dependent recruitment, even when the model is not used to generate data. Higher levels of predictor model variance led to decreased rates of convergence to the model that generated the data, but model weight trajectories were in general more stable. We suggest that predictive models should incorporate all sources of uncertainty about estimated parameters, that the variance structure should be similar for all predictor models, and that models with different functional forms for population dynamics should be considered for inclusion in predictor model! sets. All of these suggestions should help lower the probability of erroneous learning in mallard ABM and adaptive management in general.

Newly rare or newly common: evolutionary feedbacks through changes in population density and relative species abundance, and their management implications

PubMed Central

Lankau, Richard A; Strauss, Sharon Y

2011-01-01

Environmental management typically seeks to increase or maintain the population sizes of desirable species and to decrease population sizes of undesirable pests, pathogens, or invaders. With changes in population size come long-recognized changes in ecological processes that act in a density-dependent fashion. While the ecological effects of density dependence have been well studied, the evolutionary effects of changes in population size, via changes in ecological interactions with community members, are underappreciated. Here, we provide examples of changing selective pressures on, or evolution in, species as a result of changes in either density of conspecifics or changes in the frequency of heterospecific versus conspecific interactions. We also discuss the management implications of such evolutionary responses in species that have experienced rapid increases or decreases in density caused by human actions. PMID:25567977

Dispersal leads to spatial autocorrelation in species distributions: A simulation model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bahn, V.; Krohn, W.B.; O'Connor, R.J.

2008-01-01

Compared to population growth regulated by local conditions, dispersal has been underappreciated as a central process shaping the spatial distribution of populations. This paper asks: (a) which conditions increase the importance of dispersers relative to local recruits in determining population sizes? and (b) how does dispersal influence the spatial distribution patterns of abundances among connected populations? We approached these questions with a simulation model of populations on a coupled lattice with cells of continuously varying habitat quality expressed as carrying capacities. Each cell contained a population with the basic dynamics of density-regulated growth, and was connected to other populations by immigration and emigration. The degree to which dispersal influenced the distribution of population sizes depended most strongly on the absolute amount of dispersal, and then on the potential population growth rate. Dispersal decaying in intensity with distance left close neighbours more alike in population size than distant populations, leading to an increase in spatial autocorrelation. The spatial distribution of species with low potential growth rates is more dependent on dispersal than that of species with high growth rates; therefore, distribution modelling for species with low growth rates requires particular attention to autocorrelation, and conservation management of these species requires attention to factors curtailing dispersal, such as fragmentation and dispersal barriers. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analyzing ion distributions around DNA: sequence-dependence of potassium ion distributions from microsecond molecular dynamics

PubMed Central

Pasi, Marco; Maddocks, John H.; Lavery, Richard

2015-01-01

Microsecond molecular dynamics simulations of B-DNA oligomers carried out in an aqueous environment with a physiological salt concentration enable us to perform a detailed analysis of how potassium ions interact with the double helix. The oligomers studied contain all 136 distinct tetranucleotides and we are thus able to make a comprehensive analysis of base sequence effects. Using a recently developed curvilinear helicoidal coordinate method we are able to analyze the details of ion populations and densities within the major and minor grooves and in the space surrounding DNA. The results show higher ion populations than have typically been observed in earlier studies and sequence effects that go beyond the nature of individual base pairs or base pair steps. We also show that, in some special cases, ion distributions converge very slowly and, on a microsecond timescale, do not reflect the symmetry of the corresponding base sequence. PMID:25662221

Individual movement behavior, matrix heterogeneity, and the dynamics of spatially structured populations.

PubMed

Revilla, Eloy; Wiegand, Thorsten

2008-12-09

The dynamics of spatially structured populations is characterized by within- and between-patch processes. The available theory describes the latter with simple distance-dependent functions that depend on landscape properties such as interpatch distance or patch size. Despite its potential role, we lack a good mechanistic understanding of how the movement of individuals between patches affects the dynamics of these populations. We used the theoretical framework provided by movement ecology to make a direct representation of the processes determining how individuals connect local populations in a spatially structured population of Iberian lynx. Interpatch processes depended on the heterogeneity of the matrix where patches are embedded and the parameters defining individual movement behavior. They were also very sensitive to the dynamic demographic variables limiting the time moving, the within-patch dynamics of available settlement sites (both spatiotemporally heterogeneous) and the response of individuals to the perceived risk while moving. These context-dependent dynamic factors are an inherent part of the movement process, producing connectivities and dispersal kernels whose variability is affected by other demographic processes. Mechanistic representations of interpatch movements, such as the one provided by the movement-ecology framework, permit the dynamic interaction of birth-death processes and individual movement behavior, thus improving our understanding of stochastic spatially structured populations.

Investigating the anatomy of magnetosheath jets - MMS observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karlsson, Tomas; Plaschke, Ferdinand; Hietala, Heli; Archer, Martin; Blanco-Cano, Xóchitl; Kajdič, Primož; Lindqvist, Per-Arne; Marklund, Göran; Gershman, Daniel J.

2018-04-01

We use Magnetosphere Multiscale (MMS) mission data to investigate a small number of magnetosheath jets, which are localized and transient increases in dynamic pressure, typically due to a combined increase in plasma velocity and density. For two approximately hour-long intervals in November, 2015 we found six jets, which are of two distinct types. (a) Two of the jets are associated with the magnetic field discontinuities at the boundary between the quasi-parallel and quasi-perpendicular magnetosheath. Straddling the boundary, the leading part of these jets contains an ion population similar to the quasi-parallel magnetosheath, while the trailing part contains ion populations similar to the quasi-perpendicular magnetosheath. Both populations are, however, cooler than the surrounding ion populations. These two jets also have clear increases in plasma density and magnetic field strength, correlated with a velocity increase. (b) Three of the jets are found embedded within the quasi-parallel magnetosheath. They contain ion populations similar to the surrounding quasi-parallel magnetosheath, but with a lower temperature. Out of these three jets, two have a simple structure. For these two jets, the increases in density and magnetic field strength are correlated with the dynamic pressure increases. The other jet has a more complicated structure, and no clear correlations between density, magnetic field strength and dynamic pressure. This jet has likely interacted with the magnetosphere, and contains ions similar to the jets inside the quasi-parallel magnetosheath, but shows signs of adiabatic heating. All jets are associated with emissions of whistler, lower hybrid, and broadband electrostatic waves, as well as approximately 10 s period electromagnetic waves with a compressional component. The latter have a Poynting flux of up to 40 µW m-2 and may be energetically important for the evolution of the jets, depending on the wave excitation mechanism. Only one of the jets is likely to have modified the surrounding magnetic field into a stretched configuration, as has recently been reported in other studies. None of the jets are associated with clear signatures of either magnetic or thermal pressure gradient forces acting on them. The different properties of the two types also point to different generation mechanisms, which are discussed here. Their different properties and origins suggest that the two types of jets need to be separated in future statistical and simulation studies.

Population Dynamics and Temperature-Dependent Development of Chrysomphalus aonidum (L.) to Aid Sustainable Pest Management Decisions.

PubMed

Campolo, O; Malacrinò, A; Laudani, F; Maione, V; Zappalà, L; Palmeri, V

2014-10-01

The increasing worldwide trades progressively led to decreased impact of natural barriers on wild species movement. The exotic scale Chrysomphalus aonidum (L.) (Hemiptera: Diaspididae), recently reported on citrus in southern Italy, may represent a new threat to Mediterranean citriculture. We studied C. aonidum population dynamics under field conditions and documented its development under various temperatures. To enable describing temperature-dependent development through the use of linear and non-linear models, low temperature thresholds and thermal constants for each developmental stage were estimated. Chrysomphalus aonidum was able to perform four generations on green parts (leaves, sprouts) of citrus trees and three on fruits. In addition, an overall higher population density was observed on samples collected in the southern part of the tree canopy. Temperature had a significant effect on the developmental rate; female needed 625 degree days (DD) to complete its development, while male needed 833 DD. The low threshold temperatures, together with data from population dynamics, demonstrated that C. aonidum is able to overwinter as second instar and as an adult. The results obtained, validated by those collected in the field, revealed few differences between predicted and observed dates of first occurrence of each C. aonidum instar in citrus orchards. Data on C. aonidum phenology and the definition of the thermal parameters (lower and upper threshold temperatures, optimum temperature, and the thermal constant) by non-linear models could allow the estimation of the occurrence in the field of each life stage and would be helpful in developing effective integrated control strategies.

ECOLOGICAL DETERMINANTS OF AVIAN INFLUENZA VIRUS, WEST NILE VIRUS, AND AVIAN PARAMYXOVIRUS INFECTION AND ANTIBODY STATUS IN BLUE-WINGED TEAL (ANAS DISCORS) IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

PubMed

Nallar, Rodolfo; Papp, Zsuzsanna; Leighton, Frederick A; Epp, Tasha; Pasick, John; Berhane, Yohannes; Lindsay, Robbin; Soos, Catherine

2016-01-01

The Canadian prairies are one of the most important breeding and staging areas for migratory waterfowl in North America. Hundreds of thousands of waterfowl of numerous species from multiple flyways converge in and disperse from this region annually; therefore this region may be a key area for potential intra- and interspecific spread of infectious pathogens among migratory waterfowl in the Americas. Using Blue-winged Teal (Anas discors, BWTE), which have the most extensive migratory range among waterfowl species, we investigated ecologic risk factors for infection and antibody status to avian influenza virus (AIV), West Nile virus (WNV), and avian paramyxovirus-1 (APMV-1) in the three prairie provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba) prior to fall migration. We used generalized linear models to examine infection or evidence of exposure in relation to host (age, sex, body condition, exposure to other infections), spatiotemporal (year, province), population-level (local population densities of BWTE, total waterfowl densities), and environmental (local pond densities) factors. The probability of AIV infection in BWTE was associated with host factors (e.g., age and antibody status), population-level factors (e.g., local BWTE population density), and year. An interaction between age and AIV antibody status showed that hatch year birds with antibodies to AIV were more likely to be infected, suggesting an antibody response to an active infection. Infection with AIV was positively associated with local BWTE density, supporting the hypothesis of density-dependent transmission. The presence of antibodies to WNV and APMV-1 was positively associated with age and varied among years. Furthermore, the probability of being WNV antibody positive was positively associated with pond density rather than host population density, likely because ponds provide suitable breeding habitat for mosquitoes, the primary vectors for transmission. Our findings highlight the importance of spatiotemporal, environmental, and host factors at the individual and population levels, all of which may influence dynamics of these and other viruses in wild waterfowl populations.

LABORATORY EVOLUTION OF LIFE-HISTORY TRAITS IN THE BEAN WEEVIL (ACANTHOSCELIDES OBTECTUS): THE EFFECTS OF DENSITY-DEPENDENT AND AGE-SPECIFIC SELECTION.

PubMed

Tucić, Nikola; Stojković, Oliver; Gliksman, Ivana; Milanović, Agana; Šešlija, Darka

1997-12-01

Four types of laboratory populations of the bean weevil (Acanthoscelides obtectus) have been developed to study the effects of density-dependent and age-specific selection. These populations have been selected at high (K) and low larval densities (r) as well as for reproduction early (Y) and late (O) in life. The results presented here suggest that the r- and K-populations (density-dependent selection regimes) have differentiated from each other with respect to the following life-history traits: egg-to-adult viability at high larval density (K > r), preadult developmental time (r > K), body weight (r > K), late fecundity (K > r), total realized fecundity (r > K), and longevity of males (r > K). It was also found that the following traits responded in statistically significant manner in populations subjected to different age-specific selection regimes: egg-to-adult viability (O > Y), body weight (O > Y), early fecundity (Y > O), late fecundity (O > Y), and longevity of females and males (O > Y). Although several life-history traits (viability, body weight, late fecundity) responded in similar manner to both density-dependent and age-specific selection regimes, it appears that underlying genetic and physiological mechanisms responsible for differentiation of the r/K and Y/O populations are different. We have also tested quantitative genetic basis of the bean weevil life-history traits in the populations experiencing density-dependent and age-specific selection. Among the traits traded-off within age-specific selection regimes, only early fecundity showed directional dominance, whereas late fecundity and longevity data indicated additive inheritance. In contrast to age-specific selecton regimes, three life-history traits (developmental time, body size, total fecundity) in the density-sependent regimes exhibited significant dominance effects. Lastly, we have tested the congruence between short-term and long-term effects of larval densities. The comparisons of the outcomes of the r/K selection regimes and those obtained from the low- and high-larval densities revealed that there is no congruence between the selection results and phenotypic plasticity for the analyzed life-history traits in the bean weevil. © 1997 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

The role of density dependence in growth patterns of ceded territory walleye populations of northern Wisconsin: Effects of changing management regimes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sass, G.G.; Hewett, S.W.; Beard, T.D.; Fayram, A.H.; Kitchell, J.F.

2004-01-01

We assessed density-related changes in growth of walleye Sander vitreus in the ceded territory of northern Wisconsin from 1977 to 1999. We used asymptotic length (Lz), growth rate near t0 (??), and body condition as measures of walleye growth to determine the relationship between growth and density. Among lakes, there was weak evidence of density-dependent growth: adult density explained only 0-6% of the variability in the growth metrics. Within lakes, growth was density dependent. Lz, ??, and body condition of walleyes changing with density for 69, 28, and 62% of the populations examined, respectively. Our results suggest that walleye growth was density dependent within individual lakes. However, growth was not coherently density dependent among lakes, which was possibly due to inherent differences in the productivity, surface area, forage base, landscape position, species composition, and management regime of lakes in the ceded territory. Densities of adult walleyes averaged 8.3 fish/ha and did not change significantly during 1990-1999. Mean Lz and body condition of walleyes were signilicantly higher before 1990 than after 1990, which may indicate an increase in density due to changes in management regimes. The observed growth changes do not appear to be a consequence of the statewide 15-in minimum size limit adopted in 1990 but rather a response to the treaty rights management regime. We conclude that walleye growth has the potential to predict regional-scale adult walleye densities if lake-specific variables are included in a model to account for regional-scale differences among walleye populations and lakes.

Small and large wetland fragments are equally suited breeding sites for a ground-nesting passerine.

PubMed

Pasinelli, Gilberto; Mayer, Christian; Gouskov, Alexandre; Schiegg, Karin

2008-06-01

Large habitat fragments are generally thought to host more species and to offer more diverse and/or better quality habitats than small fragments. However, the importance of small fragments for population dynamics in general and for reproductive performance in particular is highly controversial. Using an information-theoretic approach, we examined reproductive performance and probability of local recruitment of color-banded reed buntings Emberiza schoeniclus in relation to the size of 18 wetland fragments in northeastern Switzerland over 4 years. We also investigated if reproductive performance and recruitment probability were density-dependent. None of the four measures of reproductive performance (laying date, nest failure probability, fledgling production per territory, fledgling condition) nor recruitment probability were found to be related to wetland fragment size. In terms of fledgling production, however, fragment size interacted with year, indicating that small fragments were better reproductive grounds in some years than large fragments. Reproductive performance and recruitment probability were not density-dependent. Our results suggest that small fragments are equally suited as breeding grounds for the reed bunting as large fragments and should therefore be managed to provide a habitat for this and other specialists occurring in the same habitat. Moreover, large fragments may represent sinks in specific years because a substantial percentage of all breeding pairs in our study area breed in large fragments, and reproductive failure in these fragments due to the regularly occurring floods may have a much stronger impact on regional population dynamics than comparable events in small fragments.

Integration of Metabolic and Quorum Sensing Signals Governing the Decision to Cooperate in a Bacterial Social Trait

PubMed Central

Boyle, Kerry E.; Monaco, Hilary; van Ditmarsch, Dave; Deforet, Maxime; Xavier, Joao B.

2015-01-01

Many unicellular organisms live in multicellular communities that rely on cooperation between cells. However, cooperative traits are vulnerable to exploitation by non-cooperators (cheaters). We expand our understanding of the molecular mechanisms that allow multicellular systems to remain robust in the face of cheating by dissecting the dynamic regulation of cooperative rhamnolipids required for swarming in Pseudomonas aeruginosa. We combine mathematical modeling and experiments to quantitatively characterize the integration of metabolic and population density signals (quorum sensing) governing expression of the rhamnolipid synthesis operon rhlAB. The combined computational/experimental analysis reveals that when nutrients are abundant, rhlAB promoter activity increases gradually in a density dependent way. When growth slows down due to nutrient limitation, rhlAB promoter activity can stop abruptly, decrease gradually or even increase depending on whether the growth-limiting nutrient is the carbon source, nitrogen source or iron. Starvation by specific nutrients drives growth on intracellular nutrient pools as well as the qualitative rhlAB promoter response, which itself is modulated by quorum sensing. Our quantitative analysis suggests a supply-driven activation that integrates metabolic prudence with quorum sensing in a non-digital manner and allows P. aeruginosa cells to invest in cooperation only when the population size is large enough (quorum sensing) and individual cells have enough metabolic resources to do so (metabolic prudence). Thus, the quantitative description of rhlAB regulatory dynamics brings a greater understating to the regulation required to make swarming cooperation stable. PMID:26102206

Population variation and individual maximum size in two leech populations: energy extraction from cannibalism or niche widening?

PubMed

Persson, Lennart; Elliott, J Malcolm

2013-05-01

The theory of cannibal dynamics predicts a link between population dynamics and individual life history. In particular, increased individual growth has, in both modeling and empirical studies, been shown to result from a destabilization of population dynamics. We used data from a long-term study of the dynamics of two leech (Erpobdella octoculata) populations to test the hypothesis that maximum size should be higher in a cycling population; one of the study populations exhibited a delayed feedback cycle while the other population showed no sign of cyclicity. A hump-shaped relationship between individual mass of 1-year-old leeches and offspring density the previous year was present in both populations. As predicted from the theory, the maximum mass of individuals was much larger in the fluctuating population. In contrast to predictions, the higher growth rate was not related to energy extraction from cannibalism. Instead, the higher individual mass is suggested to be due to increased availability of resources due to a niche widening with increased individual body mass. The larger individual mass in the fluctuating population was related to a stronger correlation between the densities of 1-year-old individuals and 2-year-old individuals the following year in this population. Although cannibalism was the major mechanism regulating population dynamics, its importance was negligible in terms of providing cannibalizing individuals with energy subsequently increasing their fecundity. Instead, the study identifies a need for theoretical and empirical studies on the largely unstudied interplay between ontogenetic niche shifts and cannibalistic population dynamics.

Spatial heterogeneity in the effects of climate and density-dependence on dispersal in a house sparrow metapopulation

PubMed Central

Pärn, Henrik; Ringsby, Thor Harald; Jensen, Henrik; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2012-01-01

Dispersal plays a key role in the response of populations to climate change and habitat fragmentation. Here, we use data from a long-term metapopulation study of a non-migratory bird, the house sparrow (Passer domesticus), to examine the influence of increasing spring temperature and density-dependence on natal dispersal rates and how these relationships depend on spatial variation in habitat quality. The effects of spring temperature and population size on dispersal rate depended on the habitat quality. Dispersal rate increased with temperature and population size on poor-quality islands without farms, where house sparrows were more exposed to temporal fluctuations in weather conditions and food availability. By contrast, dispersal rate was independent of spring temperature and population size on high-quality islands with farms, where house sparrows had access to food and shelter all the year around. This illustrates large spatial heterogeneity within the metapopulation in how population density and environmental fluctuations affect the dispersal process. PMID:21613299

Seasonal changes in the larvel populations of Aedes aegypti in two biotopes in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

PubMed Central

Trpis, Milan

1972-01-01

The seasonal dynamics of larval populations of Aedes aegypti was studied in two different biotopes in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The first biotope was located on the Msasani peninsula on the coast 6 km north of Dar es Salaam, where A. aegypti breeds exclusively in coral rock holes. The population dynamics was studied during both the rainy and the dry season. Seasonal changes in the density of A. aegypti larvae depend primarily on variation in rainfall. The population of larvae dropped to zero only for a short time during the driest period while the adult population was maintained at a low level. The second biotope was in an automobile dump in a Dar es Salaam suburb, where A. aegypti breeds in artificial containers such as tires, automobile parts, tins, coconut shells, and snail shells. The greater part of the A. aegypti population of this biotope is maintained in the egg stage during the dry season. It serves as a focal point for breeding during the dry season: with the coming of the rains, the population expands into the surrounding residential areas. More than 70% of the larval population developed in tires, 20% in tins, 5% in coconut shells, and 1% in snail shells. PMID:4539415

Relation between the Electromagnetic Processes in the Near-Earth Space and Dynamics of the Biological Resources in Russian Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makarova, L. N.; Shirochkov, A. V.

It is a well-established fact that the electromagnetic processes of different kind occurring in the near- Earth space produce significant effects in the Earth's atmosphere at all altitudes including the ground surface. There are some indications that these processes could influence at least indirectly the human health conditions. In this study we explore relation between perturbations in the solar wind (dynamics of its density, velocity, intensity of the interplanetary magnetic field) and long- term changes in population of some species of Arctic fauna (lemmings, polar foxes, deers, wolves, elks etc.) It was found out that the best statistical coupling between various Space Weather parameters and the changes in populations of the Arctic fauna species appears when the solar wind dynamic pressure magnitude is taken as one of these parameters. It was shown that the secular variations of the solar UV radiation expressed as the Total Solar Irradiance appears to be a space parameter, showing the best correlation with the changes in population of the Arctic fauna species. Such high correlation coefficients as 0.8 are obtained. It is premature now to discuss exact physical mechanisms, which could explain the obtained relations. A possible mutual dependence of some climatic factors and fauna population in Arctic on the Space Weather parameters is discussed in this connection. Conclusion is made that the electromagnetic fields of space origin is an important factor determining dynamics of population of the Arctic fauna species.

Dendritic brushes under theta and poor solvent conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gergidis, Leonidas N.; Kalogirou, Andreas; Charalambopoulos, Antonios; Vlahos, Costas

2013-07-01

The effects of solvent quality on the internal stratification of polymer brushes formed by dendron polymers up to third generation were studied by means of molecular dynamics simulations with Langevin thermostat. The distributions of polymer units, of the free ends, the radii of gyration, and the back folding probabilities of the dendritic spacers were studied at the macroscopic states of theta and poor solvent. For high grafting densities we observed a small decrease in the height of the brush as the solvent quality decreases. The internal stratification in theta solvent was similar to the one we found in good solvent, with two and in some cases three kinds of populations containing short dendrons with weakly extended spacers, intermediate-height dendrons, and tall dendrons with highly stretched spacers. The differences increase as the grafting density decreases and single dendron populations were evident in theta and poor solvent. In poor solvent at low grafting densities, solvent micelles, polymeric pinned lamellae, spherical and single chain collapsed micelles were observed. The scaling dependence of the height of the dendritic brush at high density brushes for both solvents was found to be in agreement with existing analytical results.

Density dependence and risk of extinction in a small population of sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, L.R.; Buenau, K.E.; VanBlaricom, G.

2004-01-01

Sea otters (Enhydra lutris (L.)) were hunted to extinction off the coast of Washington State early in the 20th century. A new population was established by translocations from Alaska in 1969 and 1970. The population, currently numbering at least 550 animals, A major threat to the population is the ongoing risk of majour oil spills in sea otter habitat. We apply population models to census and demographic data in order to evaluate the status of the population. We fit several density dependent models to test for density dependence and determine plausible values for the carrying capacity (K) by comparing model goodness of fit to an exponential model. Model fits were compared using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). A significant negative relationship was found between the population growth rate and population size (r2=0.27, F=5.57, df=16, p<0.05), suggesting density dependence in Washington state sea otters. Information criterion statistics suggest that the model is the most parsimonious, followed closely by the logistic Beverton-Holt model. Values of K ranged from 612 to 759 with best-fit parameter estimates for the Beverton-Holt model including 0.26 for r and 612 for K. The latest (2001) population index count (555) puts the population at 87-92% of the estimated carrying capacity, above the suggested range for optimum sustainable population (OSP). Elasticity analysis was conducted to examine the effects of proportional changes in vital rates on the population growth rate (??). The elasticity values indicate the population is most sensitive to changes in survival rates (particularly adult survival).

Genetic variation in foundation species governs the dynamics of trophic interactions

PubMed Central

Valencia-Cuevas, Leticia; Mussali-Galante, Patricia; Cano-Santana, Zenón; Pujade-Villar, Juli; Equihua-Martínez, Armando

2018-01-01

Abstract Various studies have demonstrated that the foundation species genetic diversity can have direct effects that extend beyond the individual or population level, affecting the dependent communities. Additionally, these effects may be indirectly extended to higher trophic levels throughout the entire community. Quercus castanea is an oak species with characteristics of foundation species beyond presenting a wide geographical distribution and being a dominant element of Mexican temperate forests. In this study, we analyzed the influence of population (He) and individual (HL) genetic diversity of Q. castanea on its canopy endophagous insect community and associated parasitoids. Specifically, we studied the composition, richness (S) and density of leaf-mining moths (Lepidoptera: Tischeridae, Citheraniidae), gall-forming wasps (Hymenoptera: Cynipidae), and canopy parasitoids of Q. castanea. We sampled 120 trees belonging to six populations (20/site) through the previously recognized gradient of genetic diversity. In total, 22 endophagous insect species belonging to three orders (Hymenoptera, Lepidoptera, and Diptera) and 20 parasitoid species belonging to 13 families were identified. In general, we observed that the individual genetic diversity of the host plant (HL) has a significant positive effect on the S and density of the canopy endophagous insect communities. In contrast, He has a significant negative effect on the S of endophagous insects. Additionally, indirect effects of HL were observed, affecting the S and density of parasitoid insects. Our results suggest that genetic variation in foundation species can be one of the most important factors governing the dynamics of tritrophic interactions that involve oaks, herbivores, and parasitoids. PMID:29492034

Steady states and outbreaks of two-phase nonlinear age-structured model of population dynamics with discrete time delay.

PubMed

Akimenko, Vitalii; Anguelov, Roumen

2017-12-01

In this paper we study the nonlinear age-structured model of a polycyclic two-phase population dynamics including delayed effect of population density growth on the mortality. Both phases are modelled as a system of initial boundary values problem for semi-linear transport equation with delay and initial problem for nonlinear delay ODE. The obtained system is studied both theoretically and numerically. Three different regimes of population dynamics for asymptotically stable states of autonomous systems are obtained in numerical experiments for the different initial values of population density. The quasi-periodical travelling wave solutions are studied numerically for the autonomous system with the different values of time delays and for the system with oscillating death rate and birth modulus. In both cases it is observed three types of travelling wave solutions: harmonic oscillations, pulse sequence and single pulse.

Effect of the Large Scale Environment on the Internal Dynamics of Early-Type Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maubon, G.; Prugniel, Ph.

We have studied the population-density relation in very sparse environments, from poor clusters to isolated galaxies, and we find that early-type galaxies with a young stellar population are preferably found in the lowest density environments. We show a marginal indication that this effect is due to an enhancement of the stellar formation independent of the morphological segregation, but we failed to find any effect from the internal dynamics.

Chromophore-Dependent Intramolecular Exciton-Vibrational Coupling in the FMO Complex: Quantification and Importance for Exciton Dynamics.

PubMed

Padula, Daniele; Lee, Myeong H; Claridge, Kirsten; Troisi, Alessandro

2017-11-02

In this paper, we adopt an approach suitable for monitoring the time evolution of the intramolecular contribution to the spectral density of a set of identical chromophores embedded in their respective environments. We apply the proposed method to the Fenna-Matthews-Olson (FMO) complex, with the objective to quantify the differences among site-dependent spectral densities and the impact of such differences on the exciton dynamics of the system. Our approach takes advantage of the vertical gradient approximation to reduce the computational demands of the normal modes analysis. We show that the region of the spectral density that is believed to strongly influence the exciton dynamics changes significantly in the timescale of tens of nanoseconds. We then studied the impact of the intramolecular vibrations on the exciton dynamics by considering a model of FMO in a vibronic basis and neglecting the interaction with the environment to isolate the role of the intramolecular exciton-vibration coupling. In agreement with the assumptions in the literature, we demonstrate that high frequency modes at energy much larger than the excitonic energy splitting have negligible influence on exciton dynamics despite the large exciton-vibration coupling. We also find that the impact of including the site-dependent spectral densities on exciton dynamics is not very significant, indicating that it may be acceptable to apply the same spectral density on all sites. However, care needs to be taken for the description of the exciton-vibrational coupling in the low frequency part of intramolecular modes because exciton dynamics is more susceptible to low frequency modes despite their small Huang-Rhys factors.

Allee’s dynamics and bifurcation structures in von Bertalanffy’s population size functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonel Rocha, J.; Taha, Abdel-Kaddous; Fournier-Prunaret, D.

2018-03-01

The interest and the relevance of the study of the population dynamics and the extinction phenomenon are our main motivation to investigate the induction of Allee Effect in von Bertalanffy’s population size functions. The adjustment or correction factor of rational type introduced allows us to analyze simultaneously strong and weak Allee’s functions and functions with no Allee effect, whose classification is dependent on the stability of the fixed point x = 0. This classification is founded on the concepts of strong and weak Allee’s effects to the population growth rates associated. The transition from strong Allee effect to no Allee effect, passing through the weak Allee effect, is verified with the evolution of the rarefaction critical density or Allee’s limit. The existence of cusp points on a fold bifurcation curve is related to this phenomenon of transition on Allee’s dynamics. Moreover, the “foliated” structure of the parameter plane considered is also explained, with respect to the evolution of the Allee limit. The bifurcation analysis is based on the configurations of fold and flip bifurcation curves. The chaotic semistability and the nonadmissibility bifurcation curves are proposed to this family of 1D maps, which allow us to define and characterize the corresponding Allee effect region.

Observation of number-density-dependent growth of plasmonic nanobubbles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakajima, Takashi; Wang, Xiaolong; Chatterjee, Souvik; Sakka, Tetsuo

2016-06-01

Interaction dynamics of laser pulses and nanoparticles are of great interest in recent years. In many cases, laser-nanoparticle interactions result in the formation of plasmonic nanobubbles, and the dynamics of nanoparticles and nanobubbles are inseparable. So far, very little attention has been paid to the number density. Here we report the first observation of number-density-dependent growth of plasmonic nanobubbles. Our results show that the nanobubbles growth depends (does not depend) on the number density at high (low) laser fluence, although the inter-particle distance in the solution is as long as 14-30 μm. This cannot be explained by the existing physical picture, and we propose a new model which takes into account the pressure waves arising from nanoparticles. The numerical results based on this model agree well with the experimental results. Our findings imply that the number density can be a new doorknob to control laser-nanobubble as well as laser-nanoparticle interactions.

Observation of number-density-dependent growth of plasmonic nanobubbles.

PubMed

Nakajima, Takashi; Wang, Xiaolong; Chatterjee, Souvik; Sakka, Tetsuo

2016-06-29

Interaction dynamics of laser pulses and nanoparticles are of great interest in recent years. In many cases, laser-nanoparticle interactions result in the formation of plasmonic nanobubbles, and the dynamics of nanoparticles and nanobubbles are inseparable. So far, very little attention has been paid to the number density. Here we report the first observation of number-density-dependent growth of plasmonic nanobubbles. Our results show that the nanobubbles growth depends (does not depend) on the number density at high (low) laser fluence, although the inter-particle distance in the solution is as long as 14-30 μm. This cannot be explained by the existing physical picture, and we propose a new model which takes into account the pressure waves arising from nanoparticles. The numerical results based on this model agree well with the experimental results. Our findings imply that the number density can be a new doorknob to control laser-nanobubble as well as laser-nanoparticle interactions.

Development of an establishment scheme for a DGVM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Xiang; Zeng, Xiaodong; Zhu, Jiawen; Shao, Pu

2016-07-01

Environmental changes are expected to shift the distribution and abundance of vegetation by determining seedling establishment and success. However, most current ecosystem models only focus on the impacts of abiotic factors on biogeophysics (e.g., global distribution, etc.), ignoring their roles in the population dynamics (e.g., seedling establishment rate, mortality rate, etc.) of ecological communities. Such neglect may lead to biases in ecosystem population dynamics (such as changes in population density for woody species in forest ecosystems) and characteristics. In the present study, a new establishment scheme for introducing soil water as a function rather than a threshold was developed and validated, using version 1.0 of the IAP-DGVM as a test bed. The results showed that soil water in the establishment scheme had a remarkable influence on forest transition zones. Compared with the original scheme, the new scheme significantly improved simulations of tree population density, especially in the peripheral areas of forests and transition zones. Consequently, biases in forest fractional coverage were reduced in approximately 78.8% of the global grid cells. The global simulated areas of tree, shrub, grass and bare soil performed better, where the relative biases were reduced from 34.3% to 4.8%, from 27.6% to 13.1%, from 55.2% to 9.2%, and from 37.6% to 3.6%, respectively. Furthermore, the new scheme had more reasonable dependencies of plant functional types (PFTs) on mean annual precipitation, and described the correct dominant PFTs in the tropical rainforest peripheral areas of the Amazon and central Africa.

Variability of kokanee and rainbow trout food habits, distribution, and population dynamics, in an ultraoligotrophic lake with no manipulative management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buktenica, M.W.; Girdner, S.F.; Larson, G.L.; McIntire, C.D.

2007-01-01

Crater Lake is a unique environment to evaluate the ecology of introduced kokanee and rainbow trout because of its otherwise pristine state, low productivity, absence of manipulative management, and lack of lotic systems for fish spawning. Between 1986 and 2004, kokanee displayed a great deal of variation in population demographics with a pattern that reoccurred in about 10 years. We believe that the reoccurring pattern resulted from density dependent growth, and associated changes in reproduction and abundance, driven by prey resource limitation that resulted from low lake productivity exacerbated by prey consumption when kokanee were abundant. Kokanee fed primarily on small-bodied prey from the mid-water column; whereas rainbow trout fed on large-bodied prey from the benthos and lake surface. Cladoceran zooplankton abundance may be regulated by kokanee. And kokanee growth and reproductive success may be influenced by the availability of Daphnia pulicaria, which was absent in zooplankton samples collected annually from 1990 to 1995, and after 1999. Distribution and diel migration of kokanee varied over the duration of the study and appeared to be most closely associated with prey availability, maximization of bioenergetic efficiency, and fish density. Rainbow trout were less abundant than were kokanee and exhibited less variation in population demographics, distribution, and food habits. There is some evidence that the population dynamics of rainbow trout were in-part related to the availability of kokanee as prey. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Integrating host, natural enemy, and other processes in population models of the pine sawfly

Treesearch

A. A. Sharov

1991-01-01

Explanation of population dynamics is one of the main problems in population ecology. There are two main approaches to the explanation: the factor approach and the dynamic approach. According to the first, an explanation is obtained when the effect of various environmental factors on population density is revealed. Such analysis is performed using well developed...

Harvest and dynamics of duck populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sedinger, James S.; Herzog, Mark P.

2012-01-01

The role of harvest in the dynamics of waterfowl populations continues to be debated among scientists and managers. Our perception is that interested members of the public and some managers believe that harvest influences North American duck populations based on calls for more conservative harvest regulations. A recent review of harvest and population dynamics of North American mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) populations (Pöysä et al. 2004) reached similar conclusions. Because of the importance of this issue, we reviewed the evidence for an impact of harvest on duck populations. Our understanding of the effects of harvest is limited because harvest effects are typically confounded with those of population density; regulations are typically most liberal when populations are greatest. This problem also exists in the current Adaptive Harvest Management Program (Conn and Kendall 2004). Consequently, even where harvest appears additive to other mortality, this may be an artifact of ignoring effects of population density. Overall, we found no compelling evidence for strong additive effects of harvest on survival in duck populations that could not be explained by other factors.

Effects of the distant population density on spatial patterns of demographic dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamura, Kohei; Masuda, Naoki

2017-08-01

Spatio-temporal patterns of population changes within and across countries have various implications. Different geographical, demographic and econo-societal factors seem to contribute to migratory decisions made by individual inhabitants. Focusing on internal (i.e. domestic) migration, we ask whether individuals may take into account the information on the population density in distant locations to make migratory decisions. We analyse population census data in Japan recorded with a high spatial resolution (i.e. cells of size 500×500 m) for the entirety of the country, and simulate demographic dynamics induced by the gravity model and its variants. We show that, in the census data, the population growth rate in a cell is positively correlated with the population density in nearby cells up to a distance of 20 km as well as that of the focal cell. The ordinary gravity model does not capture this empirical observation. We then show that the empirical observation is better accounted for by extensions of the gravity model such that individuals are assumed to perceive the attractiveness, approximated by the population density, of the source or destination cell of migration as the spatial average over a circle of radius ≈1 km.

Effects of the distant population density on spatial patterns of demographic dynamics.

PubMed

Tamura, Kohei; Masuda, Naoki

2017-08-01

Spatio-temporal patterns of population changes within and across countries have various implications. Different geographical, demographic and econo-societal factors seem to contribute to migratory decisions made by individual inhabitants. Focusing on internal (i.e. domestic) migration, we ask whether individuals may take into account the information on the population density in distant locations to make migratory decisions. We analyse population census data in Japan recorded with a high spatial resolution (i.e. cells of size 500×500  m ) for the entirety of the country, and simulate demographic dynamics induced by the gravity model and its variants. We show that, in the census data, the population growth rate in a cell is positively correlated with the population density in nearby cells up to a distance of 20 km as well as that of the focal cell. The ordinary gravity model does not capture this empirical observation. We then show that the empirical observation is better accounted for by extensions of the gravity model such that individuals are assumed to perceive the attractiveness, approximated by the population density, of the source or destination cell of migration as the spatial average over a circle of radius ≈1 km.

Effects of the distant population density on spatial patterns of demographic dynamics

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Spatio-temporal patterns of population changes within and across countries have various implications. Different geographical, demographic and econo-societal factors seem to contribute to migratory decisions made by individual inhabitants. Focusing on internal (i.e. domestic) migration, we ask whether individuals may take into account the information on the population density in distant locations to make migratory decisions. We analyse population census data in Japan recorded with a high spatial resolution (i.e. cells of size 500×500 m) for the entirety of the country, and simulate demographic dynamics induced by the gravity model and its variants. We show that, in the census data, the population growth rate in a cell is positively correlated with the population density in nearby cells up to a distance of 20 km as well as that of the focal cell. The ordinary gravity model does not capture this empirical observation. We then show that the empirical observation is better accounted for by extensions of the gravity model such that individuals are assumed to perceive the attractiveness, approximated by the population density, of the source or destination cell of migration as the spatial average over a circle of radius ≈1 km. PMID:28878987

Potential misuse of avian density as a conservation metric

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skagen, Susan K.; Yackel Adams, Amy A.

2011-01-01

Effective conservation metrics are needed to evaluate the success of management in a rapidly changing world. Reproductive rates and densities of breeding birds (as a surrogate for reproductive rate) have been used to indicate the quality of avian breeding habitat, but the underlying assumptions of these metrics rarely have been examined. When birds are attracted to breeding areas in part by the presence of conspecifics and when breeding in groups influences predation rates, the effectiveness of density and reproductive rate as indicators of habitat quality is reduced. It is beneficial to clearly distinguish between individual- and population-level processes when evaluating habitat quality. We use the term reproductive rate to refer to both levels and further distinguish among levels by using the terms per capita fecundity (number of female offspring per female per year, individual level) and population growth rate (the product of density and per capita fecundity, population level). We predicted how density and reproductive rate interact over time under density-independent and density-dependent scenarios, assuming the ideal free distribution model of how birds settle in breeding habitats. We predicted population density of small populations would be correlated positively with both per capita fecundity and population growth rate due to the Allee effect. For populations in the density-dependent growth phase, we predicted no relation between density and per capita fecundity (because individuals in all patches will equilibrate to the same success rate) and a positive relation between density and population growth rate. Several ecological theories collectively suggest that positive correlations between density and per capita fecundity would be difficult to detect. We constructed a decision tree to guide interpretation of positive, neutral, nonlinear, and negative relations between density and reproductive rates at individual and population levels. ?? 2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

Temporal variation in life-history traits of the clam Tivela mactroides (Bivalvia: Veneridae): Density-dependent processes in sandy beaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turra, Alexander; Petracco, Marcelo; Amaral, A. Cecilia Z.; Denadai, Márcia R.

2014-10-01

Temporal variation in the structure and dynamics of a population of Tivela mactroides was examined over two periods (2003-2004 and 2007-2008) in the southern part of Caraguatatuba Bay, southeastern Brazil. During the first period from January 2003 to October 2004, sampling was conducted monthly. Sampling in the second period was performed in the summer (January and February 2007 and 2008) and winter (July and August 2007 and 2008). The von Bertalanffy growth function was applied to estimate growth parameters for both periods from length-frequency distributions. Production was determined using the mass-specific growth rate method. Results indicated that the mean abundance (±SE) of T. mactroides varied sharply between the two periods, with an increase of almost 150 times from 2003 to 2004 (8.67·102 ± 0.83·102 ind m-1) to 2007-2008 (1.25·105 ± 3.33·104 ind m-1). The higher abundance in the second period was related to successful recruitment events. While the mean biomass and the production were higher in the second (5.43 ± 0.87 kg AFDM m-1 and 7.89 kg AFDM m-1 yr-1) than in the first period (0.18 ± 0.02 kg AFDM m-1 and 0.18 kg AFDM m-1 yr-1), lower values of shell length, curvature parameter, asymptotic length of the VBGF, and the growth index phi-prime in 2007-2008 (17.57 ± 1.35 mm; K = 0.40 yr-1; L∞ = 38.60 mm, ϕ‧ = 2.78) than in 2003-2004 (26.21 ± 1.21 mm; K = 1.00 yr-1; L∞ = 40.75 mm, ϕ‧ = 3.22) were related to a strongly density-dependent growth process in the second period. The oscillation in growth observed in the second, but not in the first period also indicates a process of density-dependent growth. These sharp temporal variations in population parameters of T. mactroides suggest the occurrence of density-dependent processes, and reinforce the importance of these processes in structuring sandy-beach populations.

Marine reserves as linked social-ecological systems.

PubMed

Pollnac, Richard; Christie, Patrick; Cinner, Joshua E; Dalton, Tracey; Daw, Tim M; Forrester, Graham E; Graham, Nicholas A J; McClanahan, Timothy R

2010-10-26

Marine reserves are increasingly recognized as having linked social and ecological dynamics. This study investigates how the ecological performance of 56 marine reserves throughout the Philippines, Caribbean, and Western Indian Ocean (WIO) is related to both reserve design features and the socioeconomic characteristics in associated coastal communities. Ecological performance was measured as fish biomass in the reserve relative to nearby areas. Of the socioeconomic variables considered, human population density and compliance with reserve rules had the strongest effects on fish biomass, but the effects of these variables were region specific. Relationships between population density and the reserve effect on fish biomass were negative in the Caribbean, positive in the WIO, and not detectable in the Philippines. Differing associations between population density and reserve effectiveness defy simple explanation but may depend on human migration to effective reserves, depletion of fish stocks outside reserves, or other social factors that change with population density. Higher levels of compliance reported by resource users was related to higher fish biomass in reserves compared with outside, but this relationship was only statistically significant in the Caribbean. A heuristic model based on correlations between social, cultural, political, economic, and other contextual conditions in 127 marine reserves showed that high levels of compliance with reserve rules were related to complex social interactions rather than simply to enforcement of reserve rules. Comparative research of this type is important for uncovering the complexities surrounding human dimensions of marine reserves and improving reserve management.

Density-dependent dynamics of a dominant rain forest tree change with juvenile stage and time of masting.

PubMed

Norghauer, Julian M; Newbery, David M

2016-05-01

Although negative density dependence (NDD) can facilitate tree species coexistence in forests, the underlying mechanisms can differ, and rarely are the dynamics of seedlings and saplings studied together. Herein we present and discuss a novel mechanism based on our investigation of NDD predictions for the large, grove-forming ectomycorrhizal mast fruiting tree, Microberlinia bisulcata (Caesalpiniaceae), in an 82.5-ha plot at Korup, Cameroon. We tested whether juvenile density, size, growth and survival decreases with increasing conspecific adult basal area for 3245 'new' seedlings and 540 'old' seedlings (< 75-cm tall) during an approximately 4-year study period (2008-2012) and for 234 'saplings' (≥ 75-cm tall) during an approximately 6-year study period (2008-2014). We found that the respective densities of new seedlings, old seedlings and saplings were positively, not and negatively related to increasing BA. Maximum leaf numbers and heights of old seedlings were negatively correlated with increasing basal areas, as were sapling heights and stem diameters. Whereas survivorship of new seedlings decreased by more than one-half with increasing basal area over its range in 2010-2012, that of old seedlings decreased by almost two-thirds, but only in 2008-2010, and was generally unrelated to conspecific seedling density. In 2010-2012 relative growth rates in new seedlings' heights decreased with increasing basal area, as well as with increasing seedling density, together with increasing leaf numbers, whereas old seedlings' growth was unrelated to either conspecific density or basal area. Saplings of below-average height had reduced survivorship with increasing basal area (probability decreasing from approx. 0.4 to 0.05 over the basal area range tested), but only sapling growth in terms of leaf numbers decreased with increasing basal area. These static and dynamic results indicate that NDD is operating within this system, possibly stabilizing the M. bisulcata population. However, these NDD patterns are unlikely to be caused by symmetric competition or by consumers. Instead, an alternative mechanism for conspecific adult-juvenile negative feedback is proposed, one which involves the interaction between tree phenology and ectomycorrhizal linkages.

Flow and active mixing have a strong impact on bacterial growth dynamics in the proximal large intestine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cremer, Jonas; Segota, Igor; Yang, Chih-Yu; Arnoldini, Markus; Groisman, Alex; Hwa, Terence

2016-11-01

More than half of fecal dry weight is bacterial mass with bacterial densities reaching up to 1012 cells per gram. Mostly, these bacteria grow in the proximal large intestine where lateral flow along the intestine is strong: flow can in principal lead to a washout of bacteria from the proximal large intestine. Active mixing by contractions of the intestinal wall together with bacterial growth might counteract such a washout and allow high bacterial densities to occur. As a step towards understanding bacterial growth in the presence of mixing and flow, we constructed an in-vitro setup where controlled wall-deformations of a channel emulate contractions. We investigate growth along the channel under a steady nutrient inflow. Depending on mixing and flow, we observe varying spatial gradients in bacterial density along the channel. Active mixing by deformations of the channel wall is shown to be crucial in maintaining a steady-state bacterial population in the presence of flow. The growth-dynamics is quantitatively captured by a simple mathematical model, with the effect of mixing described by an effective diffusion term. Based on this model, we discuss bacterial growth dynamics in the human large intestine using flow- and mixing-behavior having been observed for humans.

Population density of North American elk: effects on plant diversity.

PubMed

Stewart, Kelley M; Bowyer, R Terry; Kie, John G; Dick, Brian L; Ruess, Roger W

2009-08-01

Large, herbivorous mammals have profound effects on ecosystem structure and function and often act as keystone species in ecosystems they inhabit. Density-dependent processes associated with population structure of large mammals may interact with ecosystem functioning to increase or decrease biodiversity, depending on the relationship of herbivore populations relative to the carrying capacity (K) of the ecosystem. We tested for indirect effects of population density of large herbivores on plant species richness and diversity in a montane ecosystem, where increased net aboveground primary productivity (NAPP) in response to low levels of herbivory has been reported. We documented a positive, linear relationship between plant-species diversity and richness with NAPP. Structural equation modeling revealed significant indirect relationships between population density of herbivores, NAPP, and species diversity. We observed an indirect effect of density-dependent processes in large, herbivorous mammals and species diversity of plants through changes in NAPP in this montane ecosystem. Changes in species diversity of plants in response to herbivory may be more indirect in ecosystems with long histories of herbivory. Those subtle or indirect effects of herbivory may have strong effects on ecosystem functioning, but may be overlooked in plant communities that are relatively resilient to herbivory.

Carrier-density-dependent recombination dynamics of excitons and electron-hole plasma in m -plane InGaN/GaN quantum wells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, W.; Butté, R.; Dussaigne, A.; Grandjean, N.; Deveaud, B.; Jacopin, G.

2016-11-01

We study the carrier-density-dependent recombination dynamics in m -plane InGaN/GaN multiple quantum wells in the presence of n -type background doping by time-resolved photoluminescence. Based on Fermi's golden rule and Saha's equation, we decompose the radiative recombination channel into an excitonic and an electron-hole pair contribution, and extract the injected carrier-density-dependent bimolecular recombination coefficients. Contrary to the standard electron-hole picture, our results confirm the strong influence of excitons even at room temperature. Indeed, at 300 K, excitons represent up to 63 ± 6% of the photoexcited carriers. In addition, following the Shockley-Read-Hall model, we extract the electron and hole capture rates by deep levels and demonstrate that the increase in the effective lifetime with injected carrier density is due to asymmetric capture rates in presence of an n -type background doping. Thanks to the proper determination of the density-dependent recombination coefficients up to high injection densities, our method provides a way to evaluate the importance of Auger recombination.

Thermal ion heating in the vicinity of the plasmapause: A Dynamics Explorer guest investigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comfort, R. H.

1986-01-01

The ion thermal structure of the plasmasphere was investigated in a series of experiments. It appears that energy may be generally available to ion and electrons in the vinicity of the plasmapause from Coulomb interactions between ambient thermal plasma and low energy ring current and suprathermal ions, particularly O+. The amount of energy transferred depends on the densities and energies of each of the components. The spatial distribution of heating in turn depends critically on the spatial distribution of the different populations, especially on the density gradients. The spatial distribution of the thermal plasma is found to vary significantly on a diurnal time scale and is complicated by the plasmasphere erosion and refilling processes associated with magnetic activity and its aftermath. Thermal ion composition also appears to be influenced by the heating taking place, often increasing the heavy ion population in the vicinity of the plasmapause. The observations of equatorial heating near the plasmapause in the presence of equatorial noise also raise the likelihood of a wave source of energy. It is not unreasonable to expect that both particle and wave heat sources are significant, although not necessarily at the same times and places.

Population Genetics in Compressible Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pigolotti, Simone; Benzi, Roberto; Jensen, Mogens H.; Nelson, David R.

2012-03-01

We study competition between two biological species advected by a compressible velocity field. Individuals are treated as discrete Lagrangian particles that reproduce or die in a density-dependent fashion. In the absence of a velocity field and fitness advantage, number fluctuations lead to a coarsening dynamics typical of the stochastic Fisher equation. We investigate three examples of compressible advecting fields: a shell model of turbulence, a sinusoidal velocity field and a linear velocity sink. In all cases, advection leads to a striking drop in the fixation time, as well as a large reduction in the global carrying capacity. We find localization on convergence zones, and very rapid extinction compared to well-mixed populations. For a linear velocity sink, one finds a bimodal distribution of fixation times. The long-lived states in this case are demixed configurations with a single interface, whose location depends on the fitness advantage.

Dendritic spine dynamics in synaptogenesis after repeated LTP inductions: Dependence on pre-existing spine density

PubMed Central

Oe, Yuki; Tominaga-Yoshino, Keiko; Hasegawa, Sho; Ogura, Akihiko

2013-01-01

Not only from our daily experience but from learning experiments in animals, we know that the establishment of long-lasting memory requires repeated practice. However, cellular backgrounds underlying this repetition-dependent consolidation of memory remain largely unclear. We reported previously using organotypic slice cultures of rodent hippocampus that the repeated inductions of LTP (long-term potentiation) lead to a slowly developing long-lasting synaptic enhancement accompanied by synaptogenesis distinct from LTP itself, and proposed this phenomenon as a model system suitable for the analysis of the repetition-dependent consolidation of memory. Here we examined the dynamics of individual dendritic spines after repeated LTP-inductions and found the existence of two phases in the spines' stochastic behavior that eventually lead to the increase in spine density. This spine dynamics occurred preferentially in the dendritic segments having low pre-existing spine density. Our results may provide clues for understanding the cellular bases underlying the repetition-dependent consolidation of memory. PMID:23739837

Restoration of oyster reefs in an estuarine lake: population dynamics and shell accretion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Casas, Sandra M.; La Peyre, Jerome F.; La Peyre, Megan K.

2015-01-01

Restoration activities inherently depend on understanding the spatial and temporal variation in basic demographic rates of the species of interest. For species that modify and maintain their own habitat such as the eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica, understanding demographic rates and their impacts on population and habitat success are crucial to ensuring restoration success. We measured oyster recruitment, density, size distribution, biomass, mortality and Perkinsus marinus infection intensity quarterly for 3 yr on shallow intertidal reefs created with shell cultch in March 2009. All reefs were located within Sister Lake, LA. Reefs were placed in pairs at 3 different locations within the lake; pairs were placed in low and medium energy sites within each location. Restored reefs placed within close proximity (<8 km) experienced very different development trajectories; there was high inter-site and inter-annual variation in recruitment and mortality of oysters, with only slight variation in growth curves. Despite this high variation in population dynamics, all reefs supported dense oyster populations (728 ± 102 ind. m-2) and high live oyster biomass (>14.6 kg m-2) at the end of 3 yr. Shell accretion, on average, exceeded estimated rates required to keep pace with local subsidence and shell loss. Variation in recruitment, growth and survival drives local site-specific population success, which highlights the need to understand local water quality, hydrodynamics, and metapopulation dynamics when planning restoration.

Identification of the population density of a species model with nonlocal diffusion and nonlinear reaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuan, Nguyen Huy; Van Au, Vo; Khoa, Vo Anh; Lesnic, Daniel

2017-05-01

The identification of the population density of a logistic equation backwards in time associated with nonlocal diffusion and nonlinear reaction, motivated by biology and ecology fields, is investigated. The diffusion depends on an integral average of the population density whilst the reaction term is a global or local Lipschitz function of the population density. After discussing the ill-posedness of the problem, we apply the quasi-reversibility method to construct stable approximation problems. It is shown that the regularized solutions stemming from such method not only depend continuously on the final data, but also strongly converge to the exact solution in L 2-norm. New error estimates together with stability results are obtained. Furthermore, numerical examples are provided to illustrate the theoretical results.

Dynamics of a spin-boson model with structured spectral density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurt, Arzu; Eryigit, Resul

2018-05-01

We report the results of a study of the dynamics of a two-state system coupled to an environment with peaked spectral density. An exact analytical expression for the bath correlation function is obtained. Validity range of various approximations to the correlation function for calculating the population difference of the system is discussed as function of tunneling splitting, oscillator frequency, coupling constant, damping rate and the temperature of the bath. An exact expression for the population difference, for a limited range of parameters, is derived.

Effect of water temperature and population density on the population dynamics of Schistosoma mansoni intermediate host snails.

PubMed

McCreesh, Nicky; Arinaitwe, Moses; Arineitwe, Wilber; Tukahebwa, Edridah M; Booth, Mark

2014-11-12

Mathematical models can be used to identify areas at risk of increased or new schistosomiasis transmission as a result of climate change. The results of these models can be very different when parameterised to different species of host snail, which have varying temperature preferences. Currently, the experimental data needed by these models are available for only a few species of snail. The choice of density-dependent functions can also affect model results, but the effects of increasing densities on Biomphalaria populations have only previously been investigated in artificial aquariums. Laboratory experiments were conducted to estimate Biomphalaria sudanica mortality, fecundity and growth rates at ten different constant water temperatures, ranging from 13-32°C. Snail cages were used to determine the effects of snail densities on B. sudanica and B. stanleyi mortality and fecundity rates in semi-natural conditions in Lake Albert. B. sudanica survival and fecundity were highest at 20°C and 22°C respectively. Growth in shell diameter was estimated to be highest at 23°C in small and medium sized snails, but the relationship between temperature and growth was not clear. The fecundity of both B. sudanica and B. stanleyi decreased by 72-75% with a four-fold increase in population density. Increasing densities four-fold also doubled B. stanleyi mortality rates, but had no effect on the survival of B. sudanica. The optimum temperature for fecundity was lower for B. sudanica than for previously studied species of Biomphalaria. In contrast to other Biomphalaria species, B. sudanica have a distinct peak temperature for survival, as opposed to a plateau of highly suitable temperatures. For both B. stanleyi and B. sudanica, fecundity decreased with increasing population densities. This means that snail populations may experience large fluctuations in numbers, even in the absence of any external factors such as seasonal temperature changes. Survival also decreased with increasing density for B. stanleyi, in contrast to B. sudanica and other studied Biomphalaria species where only fecundity has been shown to decrease.

Negative density-dependent dispersal in the American black bear (Ursus americanus) revealed by noninvasive sampling and genotyping

PubMed Central

Roy, Justin; Yannic, Glenn; Côté, Steeve D; Bernatchez, Louis

2012-01-01

Although the dispersal of animals is influenced by a variety of factors, few studies have used a condition-dependent approach to assess it. The mechanisms underlying dispersal are thus poorly known in many species, especially in large mammals. We used 10 microsatellite loci to examine population density effects on sex-specific dispersal behavior in the American black bear, Ursus americanus. We tested whether dispersal increases with population density in both sexes. Fine-scale genetic structure was investigated in each of four sampling areas using Mantel tests and spatial autocorrelation analyses. Our results revealed male-biased dispersal pattern in low-density areas. As population density increased, females appeared to exhibit philopatry at smaller scales. Fine-scale genetic structure for males at higher densities may indicate reduced dispersal distances and delayed dispersal by subadults. PMID:22822432

The Allee effect, stochastic dynamics and the eradication of alien species

Treesearch

Andrew Liebhold; Jordi Bascompte; Jordi Bascompte

2003-01-01

Previous treatments of the population biology of eradication have assumed that eradication can only be achieved via 100% removal of the alien population. However, this assumption appears to be incorrect because stochastic dynamics and the Allee effect typically contribute to the extinction of very low-density populations. We explore a model that incorporates Allee...

The Socioecology of Territory Size and a "Work-Around" Hypothesis for the Adoption of Farming

PubMed Central

Freeman, Jacob

2016-01-01

This paper combines theory from ecology and anthropology to investigate variation in the territory sizes of subsistence oriented agricultural societies. The results indicate that population and the dependence of individuals within a society on “wild” foods partly determine the territory sizes of agricultural societies. In contrast, the productivity of an agroecosystem is not an important determinant of territory size. A comparison of the population-territory size scaling dynamics of agricultural societies and human foragers indicates that foragers and farmers face the same constraints on their ability to expand their territory and intensify their use of resources within a territory. However, the higher density of food in an agroecosystem allows farmers, on average, to live at much higher population densities than human foragers. These macroecological patterns are consistent with a “work-around hypothesis” for the adoption of farming. This hypothesis is that as residential groups of foragers increase in size, farming can sometimes better reduce the tension between an individual’s autonomy over resources and the need for social groups to function to provide public goods like defense and information. PMID:27391955

Ecocultural range-expansion scenarios for the replacement or assimilation of Neanderthals by modern humans.

PubMed

Wakano, Joe Yuichiro; Gilpin, William; Kadowaki, Seiji; Feldman, Marcus W; Aoki, Kenichi

2018-02-01

Recent archaeological records no longer support a simple dichotomous characterization of the cultures/behaviors of Neanderthals and modern humans, but indicate much cultural/behavioral variability over time and space. Thus, in modeling the replacement or assimilation of Neanderthals by modern humans, it is of interest to consider cultural dynamics and their relation to demographic change. The ecocultural framework for the competition between hominid species allows their carrying capacities to depend on some measure of the levels of culture they possess. In the present study both population densities and the densities of skilled individuals in Neanderthals and modern humans are spatially distributed and subject to change by spatial diffusion, ecological competition, and cultural transmission within each species. We analyze the resulting range expansions in terms of the demographic, ecological and cultural parameters that determine how the carrying capacities relate to the local densities of skilled individuals in each species. Of special interest is the case of cognitive and intrinsic-demographic equivalence of the two species. The range expansion dynamics may consist of multiple wave fronts of different speeds, each of which originates from a traveling wave solution. Properties of these traveling wave solutions are mathematically derived. Depending on the parameters, these traveling waves can result in replacement of Neanderthals by modern humans, or assimilation of the former by the latter. In both the replacement and assimilation scenarios, the first wave of intrusive modern humans is characterized by a low population density and a low density of skilled individuals, with implications for archaeological visibility. The first invasion is due to weak interspecific competition. A second wave of invasion may be induced by cultural differences between moderns and Neanderthals. Spatially and temporally extended coexistence of the two species, which would have facilitated the transfer of genes from Neanderthal into modern humans and vice versa, is observed in the traveling waves, except when niche overlap between the two species is extremely high. Archaeological findings on the spatial and temporal distributions of the Initial Upper Palaeolithic and the Early Upper Palaeolithic and of the coexistence of Neanderthals and modern humans are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling sandhill crane population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, D.H.

1979-01-01

The impact of sport hunting on the Central Flyway population of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) has been a subject of controversy for several years. A recent study (Buller 1979) presented new and important information on sandhill crane population dynamics. The present report is intended to incorporate that and other information into a mathematical model for the purpose of assessing the long-range impact of hunting on the population of sandhill cranes.The model is a simple deterministic system that embodies density-dependent rates of survival and recruitment. The model employs four kinds of data: (1) spring population size of sandhill cranes, estimated from aerial surveys to be between 250,000 and 400,000 birds; (2) age composition in fall, estimated for 1974-76 to be 11.3% young; (3) annual harvest of cranes, estimated from a variety of sources to be about 5 to 7% of the spring population; and (4) age composition of harvested cranes, which was difficult to estimate but suggests that immatures were 2 to 4 times as vulnerable to hunting as adults.Because the true nature of sandhill crane population dynamics remains so poorly understood, it was necessary to try numerous (768 in all) combinations of survival and recruitment functions, and focus on the relatively few (37) that yielded population sizes and age structures comparable to those extant in the real population. Hunting was then applied to those simulated populations. In all combinations, hunting resulted in a lower asymptotic crane population, the decline ranging from 5 to 54%. The median decline was 22%, which suggests that a hunted sandhill crane population might be about three-fourths as large as it would be if left unhunted. Results apply to the aggregate of the three subspecies in the Central Flyway; individual subspecies or populations could be affected to a greater or lesser degree.

Effect of difference of cupula and endolymph densities on the dynamics of semicircular canal.

PubMed

Kondrachuk, A V; Sirenko, S P; Boyle, R

2008-01-01

The effect of different densities of a cupula and endolymph on the dynamics of the semicircular canals is considered within the framework of a simplified one-dimensional mathematical model where the canal is approximated by a torus. If the densities are equal, the model is represented by Steinhausen's phenomenological equation. The difference of densities results in the complex dynamics of the cupulo-endolymphatic system, and leads to a dependence on the orientation of both the gravity vector relative to the canal plane and the axis of rotation, as well as on the distance between the axis of rotation and the center of the semicircular canal. Our analysis focused on two cases of canal stimulation: rotation with a constant velocity and a time-dependent (harmonically oscillating) angular velocity. Two types of spatial orientation of the axis of rotation, the axis of canal symmetry, and the vector of gravity were considered: i) the gravity vector and axis of rotation lie in the canal plane, and ii) the axis of rotation and gravity vector are normal to the canal plane. The difference of the cupula and endolymph densities reveals new features of cupula dynamics, for instance--a shift of the cupula to a new position of equilibrium that depends on the gravity vector and the parameters of head rotation, and the onset of cupula oscillations with multiple frequencies that results in the distortion of cupula dynamics relative to harmonic stimulation. Factors that might influence the density difference effects and the conditions under which these effects occur are discussed.

Deterministic Role of Collision Cascade Density in Radiation Defect Dynamics in Si

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallace, J. B.; Aji, L. B. Bayu; Shao, L.; Kucheyev, S. O.

2018-05-01

The formation of stable radiation damage in solids often proceeds via complex dynamic annealing (DA) processes, involving point defect migration and interaction. The dependence of DA on irradiation conditions remains poorly understood even for Si. Here, we use a pulsed ion beam method to study defect interaction dynamics in Si bombarded in the temperature range from ˜-30 ° C to 210 °C with ions in a wide range of masses, from Ne to Xe, creating collision cascades with different densities. We demonstrate that the complexity of the influence of irradiation conditions on defect dynamics can be reduced to a deterministic effect of a single parameter, the average cascade density, calculated by taking into account the fractal nature of collision cascades. For each ion species, the DA rate exhibits two well-defined Arrhenius regions where different DA mechanisms dominate. These two regions intersect at a critical temperature, which depends linearly on the cascade density. The low-temperature DA regime is characterized by an activation energy of ˜0.1 eV , independent of the cascade density. The high-temperature regime, however, exhibits a change in the dominant DA process for cascade densities above ˜0.04 at.%, evidenced by an increase in the activation energy. These results clearly demonstrate a crucial role of the collision cascade density and can be used to predict radiation defect dynamics in Si.

Deterministic Role of Collision Cascade Density in Radiation Defect Dynamics in Si.

PubMed

Wallace, J B; Aji, L B Bayu; Shao, L; Kucheyev, S O

2018-05-25

The formation of stable radiation damage in solids often proceeds via complex dynamic annealing (DA) processes, involving point defect migration and interaction. The dependence of DA on irradiation conditions remains poorly understood even for Si. Here, we use a pulsed ion beam method to study defect interaction dynamics in Si bombarded in the temperature range from ∼-30 °C to 210 °C with ions in a wide range of masses, from Ne to Xe, creating collision cascades with different densities. We demonstrate that the complexity of the influence of irradiation conditions on defect dynamics can be reduced to a deterministic effect of a single parameter, the average cascade density, calculated by taking into account the fractal nature of collision cascades. For each ion species, the DA rate exhibits two well-defined Arrhenius regions where different DA mechanisms dominate. These two regions intersect at a critical temperature, which depends linearly on the cascade density. The low-temperature DA regime is characterized by an activation energy of ∼0.1  eV, independent of the cascade density. The high-temperature regime, however, exhibits a change in the dominant DA process for cascade densities above ∼0.04 at.%, evidenced by an increase in the activation energy. These results clearly demonstrate a crucial role of the collision cascade density and can be used to predict radiation defect dynamics in Si.

Stochastic predation events and population persistence in bighorn sheep

PubMed Central

Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Coulson, Tim; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Hogg, John T; Pelletier, Fanie

2006-01-01

Many studies have reported temporal changes in the relative importance of density-dependence and environmental stochasticity in affecting population growth rates, but they typically assume that the predominant factor limiting growth remains constant over long periods of time. Stochastic switches in limiting factors that persist for multiple time-steps have received little attention, but most wild populations may periodically experience such switches. Here, we consider the dynamics of three populations of individually marked bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) monitored for 24–28 years. Each population experienced one or two distinct cougar (Puma concolor) predation events leading to population declines. The onset and duration of predation events were stochastic and consistent with predation by specialist individuals. A realistic Markov chain model confirms that predation by specialist cougars can cause extinction of isolated populations. We suggest that such processes may be common. In such cases, predator–prey equilibria may only occur at large geographical and temporal scales, and are unlikely with increasing habitat fragmentation. PMID:16777749

A stochastic-field description of finite-size spiking neural networks

PubMed Central

Longtin, André

2017-01-01

Neural network dynamics are governed by the interaction of spiking neurons. Stochastic aspects of single-neuron dynamics propagate up to the network level and shape the dynamical and informational properties of the population. Mean-field models of population activity disregard the finite-size stochastic fluctuations of network dynamics and thus offer a deterministic description of the system. Here, we derive a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) describing the temporal evolution of the finite-size refractory density, which represents the proportion of neurons in a given refractory state at any given time. The population activity—the density of active neurons per unit time—is easily extracted from this refractory density. The SPDE includes finite-size effects through a two-dimensional Gaussian white noise that acts both in time and along the refractory dimension. For an infinite number of neurons the standard mean-field theory is recovered. A discretization of the SPDE along its characteristic curves allows direct simulations of the activity of large but finite spiking networks; this constitutes the main advantage of our approach. Linearizing the SPDE with respect to the deterministic asynchronous state allows the theoretical investigation of finite-size activity fluctuations. In particular, analytical expressions for the power spectrum and autocorrelation of activity fluctuations are obtained. Moreover, our approach can be adapted to incorporate multiple interacting populations and quasi-renewal single-neuron dynamics. PMID:28787447

Visual counts as an index of White-Tailed Prairie Dog density

USGS Publications Warehouse

Menkens, George E.; Biggins, Dean E.; Anderson, Stanley H.

1990-01-01

Black-footed ferrets (Mustela nigripes) are depended on prairie dogs (Cynomys spp.) for food and shelter and were historically restricted to prairie dog towns (Anderson et al. 1986). Because ferrets and prairie dogs are closely associated, successful ferret management and conservation depends on successful prairie dog management. A critical component of any management program for ferrets will be monitoring prairie dog population dynamics on towns containing ferrets or on towns proposed as ferret reintroduction sites. Three techniques for estimating prairie dog population size and density are counts of plugged and reopened burrows (Tietjen and Matschke 1982), mark-recapture (Otis et al. 1978; Seber 1982, 1986; Menkens and Anderson 1989), and visual counts (Fagerstone and Biggins 1986, Knowles 1986). The technique of plugging burrows and counting the number reopened by prairie dogs is too time and labor intensive for population evaluation on a large number of towns or over large areas. Total burrow counts are not correlated with white-tailed prairie dog (C. leucurus) densities and thus cannot be used for populated evaluation (Menkens et al. 1988). Mark-recapture requires trapping that is expensive and time and labor intensive. Monitoring a large number of prairie dog populations using mark-recapture would be difficult. Alternatively a large number of populations could be monitored in short periods of time using the visual count technique (Fagerstone and Biggins 1986, Knowles 1986). However, the accuracy of visual counts has only been evaluated in a few locations. Thus, it is not known whether the relationship between counts and prairie dog density is consistent throughout the prairie dog's range. Our objective was to evaluate the potential of using visual counts as a rapid means of estimating white-tailed prairie dog density in prairie dog towns throughout Wyoming. We studied 18 white-tailed prairie dog towns in 4 white-tailed prairie dog complexes in Wyoming near Laramie (105°40'W, 41°20'N, 3 grids), Pathfinder reservoir (106°55'W, 42°30'N, 6 grids), Shirley Basin (106°10'W, 42°20'N, 6 grids), and Meeteetse (108°10'W, 44°10'N, 3 grids). All towns were dominated by grasses, forbs, and shrubs (details in Collins and Lichvar 1986). Topography of towns ranged from flat to gently rolling hills.

Effects of dispersal, shrubs, and density-dependent morality on seed and seedling distributions in temperate forests

Treesearch

Janneke Hille Ris Lambers; James S. Clark

2003-01-01

Processes limiting recruitment of trees may have large impacts on forest dynamics. In this paper, we determined the effects of dispersal, shrubs (Rhododendron maximum), and density-dependent mortality on seed and seedling distributions of Southern Appalachian trees. We quantified the spatial distribution of seed rain, seed bank densities, first-year...

Dynamics of a small re-introduced population of wild dogs over 25 years: Allee effects and the implications of sociality for endangered species' recovery.

PubMed

Somers, Michael J; Graf, Jan A; Szykman, Micaela; Slotow, Rob; Gusset, Markus

2008-11-01

We analysed 25 years (1980-2004) of demographic data on a small re-introduced population of endangered African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) in Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park (HiP), South Africa, to describe population and pack dynamics. As small populations of cooperative breeders may be particularly prone to Allee effects, this extensive data set was used to test the prediction that, if Allee effects occur, aspects of reproductive success, individual survival and population growth should increase with pack and population size. The results suggest that behavioural aspects of wild dogs rather than ecological factors (i.e. competitors, prey and rainfall) primarily have been limiting the HiP wild dog population, particularly a low probability of finding suitable mates upon dispersal at low pack number (i.e. a mate-finding Allee effect). Wild dogs in HiP were not subject to component Allee effects at the pack level, most likely due to low interspecific competition and high prey availability. This suggests that aspects of the environment can mediate the strength of Allee effects. There was also no demographic Allee effect in the HiP wild dog population, as the population growth rate was significantly negatively related to population size, despite no apparent ecological resource limitation. Such negative density dependence at low numbers indicates that behavioural studies of the causal mechanisms potentially generating Allee effects in small populations can provide a key to understanding their dynamics. This study demonstrates how aspects of a species' social behaviour can influence the vulnerability of small populations to extinction and illustrates the profound implications of sociality for endangered species' recovery.

Harvesting, predation and competition effects on a red coral population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbiati, M.; Buffoni, G.; Caforio, G.; Di Cola, G.; Santangelo, G.

A Corallium rubrum population, dwelling in the Ligurian Sea, has been under observation since 1987. Biometric descriptors of colonies (base diameter, weight, number of polyps, number of growth rings) have been recorded and correlated. The population size structure was obtained by distributing the colonies into diameter classes, each size class representing the average annual increment of diameter growth. The population was divided into ten classes, including a recruitment class. This size structure showed a fairly regular trend in the first four classes. The irregularity of survival in the older classes agreed with field observations on harvesting and predation. Demographic parameters such as survival, growth plasticity and natality coefficients were estimated from the experimental data. On this basis a discrete nonlinear model was implemented. The model is based on a kind of density-dependent Leslie matrix, where the feedback term only occurs in survival of the first class; the recruitment function is assumed to be dependent on the total biomass and related to inhibiting effects due to competitive interactions. Stability analysis was applied to steady-state solutions. Numerical simulations of population evolution were carried out under different conditions. The dynamics of settlement and the effects of disturbances such as harvesting, predation and environmental variability were studied.

Spontaneously Broken Neutral Symmetry in an Ecological System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borile, C.; Muñoz, M. A.; Azaele, S.; Banavar, Jayanth R.; Maritan, A.

2012-07-01

Spontaneous symmetry breaking plays a fundamental role in many areas of condensed matter and particle physics. A fundamental problem in ecology is the elucidation of the mechanisms responsible for biodiversity and stability. Neutral theory, which makes the simplifying assumption that all individuals (such as trees in a tropical forest)—regardless of the species they belong to—have the same prospect of reproduction, death, etc., yields gross patterns that are in accord with empirical data. We explore the possibility of birth and death rates that depend on the population density of species, treating the dynamics in a species-symmetric manner. We demonstrate that dynamical evolution can lead to a stationary state characterized simultaneously by both biodiversity and spontaneously broken neutral symmetry.

Dynamic properties in the four-state haploid coupled discrete-time mutation-selection model with an infinite population limit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Kyu Sang; Gill, Wonpyong

2017-11-01

The dynamic properties, such as the crossing time and time-dependence of the relative density of the four-state haploid coupled discrete-time mutation-selection model, were calculated with the assumption that μ ij = μ ji , where μ ij denotes the mutation rate between the sequence elements, i and j. The crossing time for s = 0 and r 23 = r 42 = 1 in the four-state model became saturated at a large fitness parameter when r 12 > 1, was scaled as a power law in the fitness parameter when r 12 = 1, and diverged when the fitness parameter approached the critical fitness parameter when r 12 < 1, where r ij = μ ij / μ 14.

Rich Global Dynamics in a Prey-Predator Model with Allee Effect and Density Dependent Death Rate of Predator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sen, Moitri; Banerjee, Malay

In this work we have considered a prey-predator model with strong Allee effect in the prey growth function, Holling type-II functional response and density dependent death rate for predators. It presents a comprehensive study of the complete global dynamics for the considered system. Especially to see the effect of the density dependent death rate of predator on the system behavior, we have presented the two parametric bifurcation diagrams taking it as one of the bifurcation parameters. In course of that we have explored all possible local and global bifurcations that the system could undergo, namely the existence of transcritical bifurcation, saddle node bifurcation, cusp bifurcation, Hopf-bifurcation, Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation and Bautin bifurcation respectively.

Modeling oscillations and spiral waves in Dictyostelium populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noorbakhsh, Javad; Schwab, David J.; Sgro, Allyson E.; Gregor, Thomas; Mehta, Pankaj

2015-06-01

Unicellular organisms exhibit elaborate collective behaviors in response to environmental cues. These behaviors are controlled by complex biochemical networks within individual cells and coordinated through cell-to-cell communication. Describing these behaviors requires new mathematical models that can bridge scales—from biochemical networks within individual cells to spatially structured cellular populations. Here we present a family of "multiscale" models for the emergence of spiral waves in the social amoeba Dictyostelium discoideum. Our models exploit new experimental advances that allow for the direct measurement and manipulation of the small signaling molecule cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP) used by Dictyostelium cells to coordinate behavior in cellular populations. Inspired by recent experiments, we model the Dictyostelium signaling network as an excitable system coupled to various preprocessing modules. We use this family of models to study spatially unstructured populations of "fixed" cells by constructing phase diagrams that relate the properties of population-level oscillations to parameters in the underlying biochemical network. We then briefly discuss an extension of our model that includes spatial structure and show how this naturally gives rise to spiral waves. Our models exhibit a wide range of novel phenomena. including a density-dependent frequency change, bistability, and dynamic death due to slow cAMP dynamics. Our modeling approach provides a powerful tool for bridging scales in modeling of Dictyostelium populations.

Consumer-Resource Dynamics: Quantity, Quality, and Allocation

PubMed Central

Getz, Wayne M.; Owen-Smith, Norman

2011-01-01

Background The dominant paradigm for modeling the complexities of interacting populations and food webs is a system of coupled ordinary differential equations in which the state of each species, population, or functional trophic group is represented by an aggregated numbers-density or biomass-density variable. Here, using the metaphysiological approach to model consumer-resource interactions, we formulate a two-state paradigm that represents each population or group in a food web in terms of both its quantity and quality. Methodology and Principal Findings The formulation includes an allocation function controlling the relative proportion of extracted resources to increasing quantity versus elevating quality. Since lower quality individuals senesce more rapidly than higher quality individuals, an optimal allocation proportion exists and we derive an expression for how this proportion depends on population parameters that determine the senescence rate, the per-capita mortality rate, and the effects of these rates on the dynamics of the quality variable. We demonstrate that oscillations do not arise in our model from quantity-quality interactions alone, but require consumer-resource interactions across trophic levels that can be stabilized through judicious resource allocation strategies. Analysis and simulations provide compelling arguments for the necessity of populations to evolve quality-related dynamics in the form of maternal effects, storage or other appropriate structures. They also indicate that resource allocation switching between investments in abundance versus quality provide a powerful mechanism for promoting the stability of consumer-resource interactions in seasonally forcing environments. Conclusions/Significance Our simulations show that physiological inefficiencies associated with this switching can be favored by selection due to the diminished exposure of inefficient consumers to strong oscillations associated with the well-known paradox of enrichment. Also our results demonstrate how allocation switching can explain observed growth patterns in experimental microbial cultures and discuss how our formulation can address questions that cannot be answered using the quantity-only paradigms that currently predominate. PMID:21283752

Integrating Temperature-Dependent Life Table Data into a Matrix Projection Model for Drosophila suzukii Population Estimation

PubMed Central

Wiman, Nik G.; Walton, Vaughn M.; Dalton, Daniel T.; Anfora, Gianfranco; Burrack, Hannah J.; Chiu, Joanna C.; Daane, Kent M.; Grassi, Alberto; Miller, Betsey; Tochen, Samantha; Wang, Xingeng; Ioriatti, Claudio

2014-01-01

Temperature-dependent fecundity and survival data was integrated into a matrix population model to describe relative Drosophila suzukii Matsumura (Diptera: Drosophilidae) population increase and age structure based on environmental conditions. This novel modification of the classic Leslie matrix population model is presented as a way to examine how insect populations interact with the environment, and has application as a predictor of population density. For D. suzukii, we examined model implications for pest pressure on crops. As case studies, we examined model predictions in three small fruit production regions in the United States (US) and one in Italy. These production regions have distinctly different climates. In general, patterns of adult D. suzukii trap activity broadly mimicked seasonal population levels predicted by the model using only temperature data. Age structure of estimated populations suggest that trap and fruit infestation data are of limited value and are insufficient for model validation. Thus, we suggest alternative experiments for validation. The model is advantageous in that it provides stage-specific population estimation, which can potentially guide management strategies and provide unique opportunities to simulate stage-specific management effects such as insecticide applications or the effect of biological control on a specific life-stage. The two factors that drive initiation of the model are suitable temperatures (biofix) and availability of a suitable host medium (fruit). Although there are many factors affecting population dynamics of D. suzukii in the field, temperature-dependent survival and reproduction are believed to be the main drivers for D. suzukii populations. PMID:25192013

Molecular Gibbs Surface Excess and CO2-Hydrate Density Determine the Strong Temperature- and Pressure-Dependent Supercritical CO2-Brine Interfacial Tension.

PubMed

Ji, Jiayuan; Zhao, Lingling; Tao, Lu; Lin, Shangchao

2017-06-29

In CO 2 geological storage, the interfacial tension (IFT) between supercritical CO 2 and brine is critical for the storage capacitance design to prevent CO 2 leakage. IFT relies not only on the interfacial molecule properties but also on the environmental conditions at different storage sites. In this paper, supercritical CO 2 -NaCl solution systems are modeled at 343-373 K and 6-35 MPa under the salinity of 1.89 mol/L using molecular dynamics simulations. After computing and comparing the molecular density profile across the interface, the atomic radial distribution function, the molecular orientation distribution, the molecular Gibbs surface excess (derived from the molecular density profile), and the CO 2 -hydrate number density under the above environmental conditions, we confirm that only the molecular Gibbs surface excess of CO 2 molecules and the CO 2 -hydrate number density correlate strongly with the temperature- and pressure-dependent IFTs. We also compute the populations of two distinct CO 2 -hydrate structures (T-type and H-type) and attribute the observed dependence of IFTs to the dominance of the more stable, surfactant-like T-type CO 2 -hydrates at the interface. On the basis of these new molecular mechanisms behind IFT variations, this study could guide the rational design of suitable injecting environmental pressure and temperature conditions. We believe that the above two molecular-level metrics (Gibbs surface excess and hydrate number density) are of great fundamental importance for understanding the supercritical CO 2 -water interface and engineering applications in geological CO 2 storage.

Combining Density Functional Theory and Green's Function Theory: Range-Separated, Nonlocal, Dynamic, and Orbital-Dependent Hybrid Functional.

PubMed

Kananenka, Alexei A; Zgid, Dominika

2017-11-14

We present a rigorous framework which combines single-particle Green's function theory with density functional theory based on a separation of electron-electron interactions into short- and long-range components. Short-range contribution to the total energy and exchange-correlation potential is provided by a density functional approximation, while the long-range contribution is calculated using an explicit many-body Green's function method. Such a hybrid results in a nonlocal, dynamic, and orbital-dependent exchange-correlation functional of a single-particle Green's function. In particular, we present a range-separated hybrid functional called srSVWN5-lrGF2 which combines the local-density approximation and the second-order Green's function theory. We illustrate that similarly to density functional approximations, the new functional is weakly basis-set dependent. Furthermore, it offers an improved description of the short-range dynamic correlation. The many-body contribution to the functional mitigates the many-electron self-interaction error present in many density functional approximations and provides a better description of molecular properties. Additionally, we illustrate that the new functional can be used to scale down the self-energy and, therefore, introduce an additional sparsity to the self-energy matrix that in the future can be exploited in calculations for large molecules or periodic systems.

Transitioning NWChem to the Next Generation of Manycore Machines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bylaska, Eric J.; Apra, Edoardo; Kowalski, Karol

The NorthWest Chemistry (NWChem) modeling software is a popular molecular chemistry simulation software that was designed from the start to work on massively parallel processing supercomputers[6, 28, 49]. It contains an umbrella of modules that today includes Self Consistent Field (SCF), second order Mller-Plesset perturbation theory (MP2), Coupled Cluster, multi-conguration selfconsistent eld (MCSCF), selected conguration interaction (CI), tensor contraction engine (TCE) many body methods, density functional theory (DFT), time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT), real time time-dependent density functional theory, pseudopotential plane-wave density functional theory (PSPW), band structure (BAND), ab initio molecular dynamics, Car-Parrinello molecular dynamics, classical molecular dynamics (MD), QM/MM,more » AIMD/MM, GIAO NMR, COSMO, COSMO-SMD, and RISM solvation models, free energy simulations, reaction path optimization, parallel in time, among other capabilities[ 22]. Moreover new capabilities continue to be added with each new release.« less

Ising-like patterns of spatial synchrony in population biology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noble, Andrew; Hastings, Alan; Machta, Jon

2014-03-01

Systems of coupled dynamical oscillators can undergo a phase transition between synchronous and asynchronous phases. In the case of coupled map lattices, the spontaneous symmetry breaking of a temporal-phase order parameter is known to exhibit Ising-like critical behavior. Here, we investigate a noisy coupled map motivated by the study of spatial synchrony in ecological populations far from the extinction threshold. Ising-like patterns of criticality, as well as spinodal decomposition and homogeneous nucleation, emerge from the nonlinear interactions of environmental fluctuations in habitat quality, local density-dependence in reproduction, and dispersal. In the mean-field limit, the correspondence to the Ising model is exact: the fixed points of our dynamical system are given by the equation of state for Weiss mean-field theory under an appropriate mapping of parameters. We have strong evidence that a quantitative correspondence persists, both near and far from the critical point, in the presence of fluctuations. Our results provide a formal connection between equilibrium statistical physics and population biology. This work is supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 1344187.

The population and seasonal dynamics of weevils developing in the soil of birch stands

Treesearch

E. Kula

2003-01-01

Curculionidae developing in the soil of birch stands in an air-polluted region were classified using the method of soil photoeclectors on the basis of their population dynamics (1986-2000) and phenology of their emergence from where they developed. In the course of 15 years we saw two evident culminations in the population density of Polydrusus undatus...

General Formalism of Decision Making Based on Theory of Open Quantum Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asano, M.; Ohya, M.; Basieva, I.; Khrennikov, A.

2013-01-01

We present the general formalism of decision making which is based on the theory of open quantum systems. A person (decision maker), say Alice, is considered as a quantum-like system, i.e., a system which information processing follows the laws of quantum information theory. To make decision, Alice interacts with a huge mental bath. Depending on context of decision making this bath can include her social environment, mass media (TV, newspapers, INTERNET), and memory. Dynamics of an ensemble of such Alices is described by Gorini-Kossakowski-Sudarshan-Lindblad (GKSL) equation. We speculate that in the processes of evolution biosystems (especially human beings) designed such "mental Hamiltonians" and GKSL-operators that any solution of the corresponding GKSL-equation stabilizes to a diagonal density operator (In the basis of decision making.) This limiting density operator describes population in which all superpositions of possible decisions has already been resolved. In principle, this approach can be used for the prediction of the distribution of possible decisions in human populations.

Structure and mechanism of diet specialisation: testing models of individual variation in resource use with sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tinker, M. Tim; Guimarães, Paulo R.; Novak, Mark; Marquitti, Flavia Maria Darcie; Bodkin, James L.; Staedler, Michelle; Bentall, Gena B.; Estes, James A.

2012-01-01

Studies of consumer-resource interactions suggest that individual diet specialisation is empirically widespread and theoretically important to the organisation and dynamics of populations and communities. We used weighted networks to analyze the resource use by sea otters, testing three alternative models for how individual diet specialisation may arise. As expected, individual specialisation was absent when otter density was low, but increased at high-otter density. A high-density emergence of nested resource-use networks was consistent with the model assuming individuals share preference ranks. However, a density-dependent emergence of a non-nested modular network for ‘core’ resources was more consistent with the ‘competitive refuge’ model. Individuals from different diet modules showed predictable variation in rank-order prey preferences and handling times of core resources, further supporting the competitive refuge model. Our findings support a hierarchical organisation of diet specialisation and suggest individual use of core and marginal resources may be driven by different selective pressures.

Dispersal Behavior of Tetranychus evansi and T. urticae on Tomato at Several Spatial Scales and Densities: Implications for Integrated Pest Management

PubMed Central

Azandémè-Hounmalon, Ginette Y.; Fellous, Simon; Kreiter, Serge; Fiaboe, Komi K. M.; Subramanian, Sevgan; Kungu, Miriam; Martin, Thibaud

2014-01-01

Studying distribution is necessary to understand and manage the dynamics of species with spatially structured populations. Here we studied the distribution in Tetranychus evansi and T. urticae, two mite pests of tomato, in the scope of evaluating factors that can influence the effectiveness of Integrated Pest Management strategies. We found greater positive density-dependent distribution with T. evansi than T. urticae when assayed on single, detached tomato leaves. Indeed, T. evansi distribution among leaflets increased with initial population density while it was high even at low T. urticae densities. Intensity and rate of damage to whole plants was higher with T. evansi than T. urticae. We further studied the circadian migration of T. evansi within plant. When T. evansi density was high the distribution behavior peaked between 8 am and 3 pm and between 8 pm and 3 am local time of Kenya. Over 24 h the total number of mites ascending and descending was always similar and close to the total population size. The gregarious behavior of T. evansi combined with its rapid population growth rate, may explain why few tomato plants can be severely damaged by T. evansi and how suddenly all the crop can be highly infested. However the localisation and elimination of the first infested plants damaged by T. evansi could reduce the risk of outbreaks in the entire crop. These findings suggest also that an acaricide treated net placed on the first infested plants could be very effective to control T. evansi. Moreover circadian migration would therefore accentuate the efficiency of an acaricide treated net covering the infested plants. PMID:24743580

Femtosecond-laser induced dynamics of CO on Ru(0001): Deep insights from a hot-electron friction model including surface motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scholz, Robert; Floß, Gereon; Saalfrank, Peter; Füchsel, Gernot; Lončarić, Ivor; Juaristi, J. I.

2016-10-01

A Langevin model accounting for all six molecular degrees of freedom is applied to femtosecond-laser induced, hot-electron driven dynamics of Ru(0001)(2 ×2 ):CO. In our molecular dynamics with electronic friction approach, a recently developed potential energy surface based on gradient-corrected density functional theory accounting for van der Waals interactions is adopted. Electronic friction due to the coupling of molecular degrees of freedom to electron-hole pairs in the metal are included via a local density friction approximation, and surface phonons by a generalized Langevin oscillator model. The action of ultrashort laser pulses enters through a substrate-mediated, hot-electron mechanism via a time-dependent electronic temperature (derived from a two-temperature model), causing random forces acting on the molecule. The model is applied to laser induced lateral diffusion of CO on the surface, "hot adsorbate" formation, and laser induced desorption. Reaction probabilities are strongly enhanced compared to purely thermal processes, both for diffusion and desorption. Reaction yields depend in a characteristic (nonlinear) fashion on the applied laser fluence, as well as branching ratios for various reaction channels. Computed two-pulse correlation traces for desorption and other indicators suggest that aside from electron-hole pairs, phonons play a non-negligible role for laser induced dynamics in this system, acting on a surprisingly short time scale. Our simulations on precomputed potentials allow for good statistics and the treatment of long-time dynamics (300 ps), giving insight into this system which hitherto has not been reached. We find generally good agreement with experimental data where available and make predictions in addition. A recently proposed laser induced population of physisorbed precursor states could not be observed with the present low-coverage model.

Biophysical model of prokaryotic diversity in geothermal hot springs.

PubMed

Klales, Anna; Duncan, James; Nett, Elizabeth Janus; Kane, Suzanne Amador

2012-02-01

Recent studies of photosynthetic bacteria living in geothermal hot spring environments have revealed surprisingly complex ecosystems with an unexpected level of genetic diversity. One case of particular interest involves the distribution along hot spring thermal gradients of genetically distinct bacterial strains that differ in their preferred temperatures for reproduction and photosynthesis. In such systems, a single variable, temperature, defines the relevant environmental variation. In spite of this, each region along the thermal gradient exhibits multiple strains of photosynthetic bacteria adapted to several distinct thermal optima, rather than a single thermal strain adapted to the local environmental temperature. Here we analyze microbiology data from several ecological studies to show that the thermal distribution data exhibit several universal features independent of location and specific bacterial strain. These include the distribution of optimal temperatures of different thermal strains and the functional dependence of the net population density on temperature. We present a simple population dynamics model of these systems that is highly constrained by biophysical data and by physical features of the environment. This model can explain in detail the observed thermal population distributions, as well as certain features of population dynamics observed in laboratory studies of the same organisms. © 2012 American Physical Society

Scaling rules for the final decline to extinction

PubMed Central

Griffen, Blaine D.; Drake, John M.

2009-01-01

Space–time scaling rules are ubiquitous in ecological phenomena. Current theory postulates three scaling rules that describe the duration of a population's final decline to extinction, although these predictions have not previously been empirically confirmed. We examine these scaling rules across a broader set of conditions, including a wide range of density-dependent patterns in the underlying population dynamics. We then report on tests of these predictions from experiments using the cladoceran Daphnia magna as a model. Our results support two predictions that: (i) the duration of population persistence is much greater than the duration of the final decline to extinction and (ii) the duration of the final decline to extinction increases with the logarithm of the population's estimated carrying capacity. However, our results do not support a third prediction that the duration of the final decline scales inversely with population growth rate. These findings not only support the current standard theory of population extinction but also introduce new empirical anomalies awaiting a theoretical explanation. PMID:19141422

Fishing-induced changes in adult length are mediated by skipped-spawning.

PubMed

Wang, Hui-Yu; Chen, Ying-Shiuan; Hsu, Chien-Chung; Shen, Sheng-Feng

2017-01-01

Elucidating fishing effects on fish population dynamics is a critical step toward sustainable fisheries management. Despite previous studies that have suggested age or size truncation in exploited fish populations, other aspects of fishing effects on population demography, e.g., via altering life histories and density, have received less attention. Here, we investigated the fishing effects altering adult demography via shifting reproductive trade-offs in the iconic, overexploited, Pacific bluefin tuna Thunnus orientalis. We found that, contrary to our expectation, mean lengths of catch increased over time in longline fisheries. On the other hand, mean catch lengths for purse seine fisheries did not show such increasing trends. We hypothesized that the size-dependent energetic cost of the spawning migration and elevated fishing mortality on the spawning grounds potentially drive size-dependent skipped spawning for adult tuna, mediating the observed changes in the catch lengths. Using eco-genetic individual-based modeling, we demonstrated that fishing-induced evolution of skipped spawning and size truncation interacted to shape the observed temporal changes in mean catch lengths for tuna. Skipped spawning of the small adults led to increased mean catch lengths for the longline fisheries, while truncation of small adults by the purse seines could offset such a pattern. Our results highlight the eco-evolutionary dynamics of fishing effects on population demography and caution against using demographic traits as a basis for fisheries management of the Pacific bluefin tuna as well as other migratory species. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Relationship between ancient bridges and population dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin, China.

PubMed

Zhao, Yang; Jia, Xin; Lee, Harry F; Zhao, Hongqiang; Cai, Shuliang; Huang, Xianjin

2017-01-01

It has been suggested that population growth dynamics may be revealed by the geographic distribution and the physical structure of ancient bridges. Yet, this relationship has not been empirically verified. In this study, we applied the archaeological records for ancient bridges to reveal the population growth dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin in late imperial China. We investigated 89 ancient bridges in Yixing that were built during the Ming and Qing dynasties (AD1368-1911). Global Position System information and structure (length, width, and span) of those bridges was measured during our field investigations. Their distribution density was calculated by ArcGIS. The historical socio-economic dynamics of Yixing was inferred from the distribution and structure of ancient bridges. Based on the above information, the population growth dynamics in Yixing was projected. Our results show that 77 bridges were built in Yixing during the Qing dynasty, which is 6.41 times more than the number built during the Ming dynasty. In the Ming dynasty, bridges were built on pivotal routes; in the Qing dynasty, bridges were scattered across various places. Over the period, the density distribution of bridges shifted northwestward, while the average length and width of bridges decreased. The increasing number of bridges corresponded to population growth, largely attributable to massive clan migration from northern China during the Little Ice Age. The shift in the density distribution of bridges corresponded to the formation of settlements of large clans and the blossoming of Yixing Teapot handicrafts. The scattering and the reduction in average length and width of bridges was due to the dispersal of population and the associated formation of small settlements in the latter period. Our approach is innovative and robust, and could be employed to recover long-term historical population growth dynamics in other parts of China.

Relationship between ancient bridges and population dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin, China

PubMed Central

Zhao, Yang; Lee, Harry F.; Zhao, Hongqiang; Cai, Shuliang; Huang, Xianjin

2017-01-01

It has been suggested that population growth dynamics may be revealed by the geographic distribution and the physical structure of ancient bridges. Yet, this relationship has not been empirically verified. In this study, we applied the archaeological records for ancient bridges to reveal the population growth dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin in late imperial China. We investigated 89 ancient bridges in Yixing that were built during the Ming and Qing dynasties (AD1368–1911). Global Position System information and structure (length, width, and span) of those bridges was measured during our field investigations. Their distribution density was calculated by ArcGIS. The historical socio-economic dynamics of Yixing was inferred from the distribution and structure of ancient bridges. Based on the above information, the population growth dynamics in Yixing was projected. Our results show that 77 bridges were built in Yixing during the Qing dynasty, which is 6.41 times more than the number built during the Ming dynasty. In the Ming dynasty, bridges were built on pivotal routes; in the Qing dynasty, bridges were scattered across various places. Over the period, the density distribution of bridges shifted northwestward, while the average length and width of bridges decreased. The increasing number of bridges corresponded to population growth, largely attributable to massive clan migration from northern China during the Little Ice Age. The shift in the density distribution of bridges corresponded to the formation of settlements of large clans and the blossoming of Yixing Teapot handicrafts. The scattering and the reduction in average length and width of bridges was due to the dispersal of population and the associated formation of small settlements in the latter period. Our approach is innovative and robust, and could be employed to recover long-term historical population growth dynamics in other parts of China. PMID:28792976

Trojan Asteroid Lightcurves: Probing Internal Structure and the Origins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryan, E. L.

2017-12-01

Studies of the small bodies of the solar system reveal important clues about the condensation and formation of planetesimal bodies, and ultimately planets in planetary systems. Dynamics of small bodies have been utilized to model giant planet migration within our solar system, colors have been used to explore compositional gradients within the protoplanetary disk, & studies of the size-frequency distribution of main belt asteroids may reveal compositional dependences on planetesimal strength limiting models of planetary growth from collisional aggregration. Studies of the optical lightcurves of asteroids also yield important information on shape and potential binarity of asteroidal bodies. The K2 mission has allowed for the unprecedented collection of Trojan asteroid lightcurves on a 30 minute cadence for baselines of 10 days, in both the L4 and L5 Trojan clouds. Preliminary results from the K2 mission suggest that Trojan asteroids have bulk densities of 1 g/cc and a binary fraction ≤ 33 percent (Ryan et al., 2017, Astronomical Journal, 153, 116), however Trojan lightcurve data is actively being collected via the continued K2 mission. We will present updated results of bulk density and binary fraction of the Trojan asteroids and compare these results to other small body populations, including Hilda asteroids, transNeptunian objects and comet nuclei to test dynamical models of the origins of these populations.

Potential misuse of avian density as a conservation metric.

PubMed

Skagen, Susan K; Yackel Adams, Amy A

2011-02-01

Effective conservation metrics are needed to evaluate the success of management in a rapidly changing world. Reproductive rates and densities of breeding birds (as a surrogate for reproductive rate) have been used to indicate the quality of avian breeding habitat, but the underlying assumptions of these metrics rarely have been examined. When birds are attracted to breeding areas in part by the presence of conspecifics and when breeding in groups influences predation rates, the effectiveness of density and reproductive rate as indicators of habitat quality is reduced. It is beneficial to clearly distinguish between individual- and population-level processes when evaluating habitat quality. We use the term reproductive rate to refer to both levels and further distinguish among levels by using the terms per capita fecundity (number of female offspring per female per year, individual level) and population growth rate (the product of density and per capita fecundity, population level). We predicted how density and reproductive rate interact over time under density-independent and density-dependent scenarios, assuming the ideal free distribution model of how birds settle in breeding habitats. We predicted population density of small populations would be correlated positively with both per capita fecundity and population growth rate due to the Allee effect. For populations in the density-dependent growth phase, we predicted no relation between density and per capita fecundity (because individuals in all patches will equilibrate to the same success rate) and a positive relation between density and population growth rate. Several ecological theories collectively suggest that positive correlations between density and per capita fecundity would be difficult to detect. We constructed a decision tree to guide interpretation of positive, neutral, nonlinear, and negative relations between density and reproductive rates at individual and population levels. Journal compilation ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original US government works.

In situ Occurrence, Prevalence and Dynamics of Parvilucifera Parasitoids during Recurrent Blooms of the Toxic Dinoflagellate Alexandrium minutum

PubMed Central

Alacid, Elisabet; Reñé, Albert; Camp, Jordi; Garcés, Esther

2017-01-01

Dinoflagellate blooms are natural phenomena that often occur in coastal areas, which in addition to their large number of nutrient-rich sites are characterized by highly restricted hydrodynamics within bays, marinas, enclosed beaches, and harbors. In these areas, massive proliferations of dinoflagellates have harmful effects on humans and the ecosystem. However, the high cell density reached during blooms make them vulnerable to parasitic infections. Under laboratory conditions parasitoids are able to exterminate an entire host population. In nature, Parvilucifera parasitoids infect the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium minutum during bloom conditions but their prevalence and impact remain unexplored. In this study, we evaluated the in situ occurrence, prevalence, and dynamics of Parvilucifera parasitoids during recurrent blooms of A. minutum in a confined site in the NW Mediterranean Sea as well as the contribution of parasitism to bloom termination. Parvilucifera parasitoids were recurrently detected from 2009 to 2013, during seasonal outbreaks of A. minutum. Parasitic infections in surface waters occurred after the abundance of A. minutum reached 104–105 cells L−1, suggesting a density threshold beyond which Parvilucifera transmission is enhanced and the number of infected cells increases. Moreover, host and parasitoid abundances were not in phase. Instead, there was a lag between maximum A. minutum and Parvilucifera densities, indicative of a delayed density-dependent response of the parasitoid to host abundances, similar to the temporal dynamics of predator-prey interactions. The highest parasitoid prevalence was reached after a peak in host abundance and coincided with the decay phase of the bloom, when a maximum of 38% of the A. minutum population was infected. According to our estimates, Parvilucifera infections accounted for 5–18% of the total observed A. minutum mortality, which suggested that the contribution of parasitism to bloom termination is similar to that of other biological factors, such as encystment and grazing. PMID:28912757

The scaling of weak field phase-only control in Markovian dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Am-Shallem, Morag; Kosloff, Ronnie

We consider population transfer in open quantum systems, which are described by quantum dynamical semigroups (QDS). Using second order perturbation theory of the Lindblad equation, we show that it depends on a weak external field only through the field's autocorrelation function, which is phase independent. Therefore, for leading order in perturbation, QDS cannot support dependence of the population transfer on the phase properties of weak fields. We examine an example of weak-field phase-dependent population transfer, and show that the phase-dependence comes from the next order in the perturbation.

Exciton recombination dynamics in CdSe nanowires: bimolecular to three-carrier Auger kinetics.

PubMed

Robel, István; Bunker, Bruce A; Kamat, Prashant V; Kuno, Masaru

2006-07-01

Ultrafast relaxation dynamics of charge carriers in CdSe quantum wires with diameters between 6 and 8 nm are studied as a function of carrier density. At high electron-hole pair densities above 10(19) cm(-3) the dominant process for carrier cooling is the "bimolecular" Auger recombination of one-dimensional (1D) excitons. However, below this excitation level an unexpected transition from a bimolecular (exciton-exciton) to a three-carrier Auger relaxation mechanism occurs. Thus, depending on excitation intensity, electron-hole pair relaxation dynamics in the nanowires exhibit either 1D or 0D (quantum dot) character. This dual nature of the recovery kinetics defines an optimal intensity for achieving optical gain in solution-grown nanowires given the different carrier-density-dependent scaling of relaxation rates in either regime.

Dynamics of newly established elk populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sargeant, G.A.; Oehler, M.W.

2007-01-01

The dynamics of newly established elk (Cervus elaphus) populations can provide insights about maximum sustainable rates of reproduction, survival, and increase. However, data used to estimate rates of increase typically have been limited to counts and rarely have included complementary estimates of vital rates. Complexities of population dynamics cannot be understood without considering population processes as well as population states. We estimated pregnancy rates, survival rates, age ratios, and sex ratios for reintroduced elk at Theodore Roosevelt National Park, North Dakota, USA; combined vital rates in a population projection model; and compared model projections with observed elk numbers and population ratios. Pregnancy rates in January (early in the second trimester of pregnancy) averaged 54.1% (SE = 5.4%) for subadults and 91.0% (SE = 1.7%) for adults, and 91.6% of pregnancies resulted in recruitment at 8 months. Annual survival rates of adult females averaged 0.96 (95% CI = 0.94-0.98) with hunting included and 0.99 (95% CI = 0.97-0.99) with hunting excluded from calculations. Our fitted model explained 99.8% of past variation in population estimates and represents a useful new tool for short-term management planning. Although we found no evidence of temporal variation in vital rates, variation in population composition caused substantial variation in projected rates of increase (??=1.20-1.36). Restoring documented hunter harvests and removals of elk by the National Park Service led to a potential rate of ?? = 1.26. Greater rates of increase substantiated elsewhere were within the expected range of chance variation, given our model and estimates of vital rates. Rates of increase realized by small elk populations are too variable to support inferences about habitat quality or density dependence.

Dynamical mean-field theory, density-matrix embedding theory, and rotationally invariant slave bosons: A unified perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayral, Thomas; Lee, Tsung-Han; Kotliar, Gabriel

2017-12-01

We present a unified perspective on dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT), density-matrix embedding theory (DMET), and rotationally invariant slave bosons (RISB). We show that DMET can be regarded as a simplification of the RISB method where the quasiparticle weight is set to unity. This relation makes it easy to transpose extensions of a given method to another: For instance, a temperature-dependent version of RISB can be used to derive a temperature-dependent free-energy formula for DMET.

Unbiased reduced density matrices and electronic properties from full configuration interaction quantum Monte Carlo.

PubMed

Overy, Catherine; Booth, George H; Blunt, N S; Shepherd, James J; Cleland, Deidre; Alavi, Ali

2014-12-28

Properties that are necessarily formulated within pure (symmetric) expectation values are difficult to calculate for projector quantum Monte Carlo approaches, but are critical in order to compute many of the important observable properties of electronic systems. Here, we investigate an approach for the sampling of unbiased reduced density matrices within the full configuration interaction quantum Monte Carlo dynamic, which requires only small computational overheads. This is achieved via an independent replica population of walkers in the dynamic, sampled alongside the original population. The resulting reduced density matrices are free from systematic error (beyond those present via constraints on the dynamic itself) and can be used to compute a variety of expectation values and properties, with rapid convergence to an exact limit. A quasi-variational energy estimate derived from these density matrices is proposed as an accurate alternative to the projected estimator for multiconfigurational wavefunctions, while its variational property could potentially lend itself to accurate extrapolation approaches in larger systems.

Flavin Charge Transfer Transitions Assist DNA Photolyase Electron Transfer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skourtis, Spiros S.; Prytkova, Tatiana; Beratan, David N.

2007-12-01

This contribution describes molecular dynamics, semi-empirical and ab-initio studies of the primary photo-induced electron transfer reaction in DNA photolyase. DNA photolyases are FADH--containing proteins that repair UV-damaged DNA by photo-induced electron transfer. A DNA photolyase recognizes and binds to cyclobutatne pyrimidine dimer lesions of DNA. The protein repairs a bound lesion by transferring an electron to the lesion from FADH-, upon photo-excitation of FADH- with 350-450 nm light. We compute the lowest singlet excited states of FADH- in DNA photolyase using INDO/S configuration interaction, time-dependent density-functional, and time-dependent Hartree-Fock methods. The calculations identify the lowest singlet excited state of FADH- that is populated after photo-excitation and that acts as the electron donor. For this donor state we compute conformationally-averaged tunneling matrix elements to empty electron-acceptor states of a thymine dimer bound to photolyase. The conformational averaging involves different FADH--thymine dimer confromations obtained from molecular dynamics simulations of the solvated protein with a thymine dimer docked in its active site. The tunneling matrix element computations use INDO/S-level Green's function, energy splitting, and Generalized Mulliken-Hush methods. These calculations indicate that photo-excitation of FADH- causes a π→π* charge-transfer transition that shifts electron density to the side of the flavin isoalloxazine ring that is adjacent to the docked thymine dimer. This shift in electron density enhances the FADH--to-dimer electronic coupling, thus inducing rapid electron transfer.

Positive density-dependent reproduction regulated by local kinship and size in an understorey tropical tree

PubMed Central

Castilla, Antonio R.; Pope, Nathaniel; Jha, Shalene

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Global pollinator declines and continued habitat fragmentation highlight the critical need to understand reproduction and gene flow across plant populations. Plant size, conspecific density and local kinship (i.e. neighbourhood genetic relatedness) have been proposed as important mechanisms influencing the reproductive success of flowering plants, but have rarely been simultaneously investigated. Methods We conducted this study on a continuous population of the understorey tree Miconia affinis in the Forest Dynamics Plot on Barro Colorado Island in central Panama. We used spatial, reproductive and population genetic data to investigate the effects of tree size, conspecific neighbourhood density and local kinship on maternal and paternal reproductive success. We used a Bayesian framework to simultaneously model the effects of our explanatory variables on the mean and variance of maternal viable seed set and siring success. Key Results Our results reveal that large trees had lower proportions of viable seeds in their fruits but sired more seeds. We documented differential effects of neighbourhood density and local kinship on both maternal and paternal reproductive components. Trees in more dense neighbourhoods produced on average more viable seeds, although this positive density effect was influenced by variance-inflation with increasing local kinship. Neighbourhood density did not have significant effects on siring success. Conclusions This study is one of the first to reveal an interaction among tree size, conspecific density and local kinship as critical factors differentially influencing maternal and paternal reproductive success. We show that both maternal and paternal reproductive success should be evaluated to determine the population-level and individual traits most essential for plant reproduction. In addition to conserving large trees, we suggest the inclusion of small trees and the conservation of dense patches with low kinship as potential strategies for strengthening the reproductive status of tropical trees. PMID:26602288

Positive density-dependent reproduction regulated by local kinship and size in an understorey tropical tree.

PubMed

Castilla, Antonio R; Pope, Nathaniel; Jha, Shalene

2016-02-01

Global pollinator declines and continued habitat fragmentation highlight the critical need to understand reproduction and gene flow across plant populations. Plant size, conspecific density and local kinship (i.e. neighbourhood genetic relatedness) have been proposed as important mechanisms influencing the reproductive success of flowering plants, but have rarely been simultaneously investigated. We conducted this study on a continuous population of the understorey tree Miconia affinis in the Forest Dynamics Plot on Barro Colorado Island in central Panama. We used spatial, reproductive and population genetic data to investigate the effects of tree size, conspecific neighbourhood density and local kinship on maternal and paternal reproductive success. We used a Bayesian framework to simultaneously model the effects of our explanatory variables on the mean and variance of maternal viable seed set and siring success. Our results reveal that large trees had lower proportions of viable seeds in their fruits but sired more seeds. We documented differential effects of neighbourhood density and local kinship on both maternal and paternal reproductive components. Trees in more dense neighbourhoods produced on average more viable seeds, although this positive density effect was influenced by variance-inflation with increasing local kinship. Neighbourhood density did not have significant effects on siring success. This study is one of the first to reveal an interaction among tree size, conspecific density and local kinship as critical factors differentially influencing maternal and paternal reproductive success. We show that both maternal and paternal reproductive success should be evaluated to determine the population-level and individual traits most essential for plant reproduction. In addition to conserving large trees, we suggest the inclusion of small trees and the conservation of dense patches with low kinship as potential strategies for strengthening the reproductive status of tropical trees. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Quantitative high-throughput population dynamics in continuous-culture by automated microscopy.

PubMed

Merritt, Jason; Kuehn, Seppe

2016-09-12

We present a high-throughput method to measure abundance dynamics in microbial communities sustained in continuous-culture. Our method uses custom epi-fluorescence microscopes to automatically image single cells drawn from a continuously-cultured population while precisely controlling culture conditions. For clonal populations of Escherichia coli our instrument reveals history-dependent resilience and growth rate dependent aggregation.

The dynamics of health in wild field vole populations: a haematological perspective

PubMed Central

Beldomenico, Pablo M.; Telfer, Sandra; Gebert, Stephanie; Lukomski, Lukasz; Bennett, Malcolm; Begon, Michael

2010-01-01

Summary Pathogens have been proposed as potentially important drivers of population dynamics, but while a few studies have investigated the impact of specific pathogens, the wealth of information provided by general indices of health has hardly been exploited. By evaluating haematological parameters in wild populations, our knowledge of the dynamics of health and infection may be better understood. Here, haematological dynamics in natural populations of field voles are investigated to determine environmental and host factors associated with indicators of inflammatory response (counts of monocytes and neutrophils) and of condition: measures of immunological investment (lymphocyte counts) and aerobic capacity (red blood cell counts). Individuals from three field vole populations were sampled monthly for 2 years. Comparisons with individuals kept under controlled conditions facilitated interpretation of field data. Mixed effects models were developed for each cell type to evaluate separately the effects of various factors on post-juvenile voles and mature breeding females. There were three well-characterized ‘physiological’ seasons. The immunological investment appeared lowest in winter (lowest lymphocyte counts), but red blood cells were at their highest levels and indices of inflammatory response at their lowest. Spring was characterized by a fall in red blood cell counts and peaks in indicators of inflammatory response. During the course of summer—autumn, red blood cell counts recovered, the immunological investment increased and the indicators of inflammatory response decreased. Poor body condition appeared to affect the inflammatory response (lower neutrophil and monocyte peaks) and the immunological investment (lower lymphocyte counts), providing evidence that the capacity to fight infection is dependent upon host condition. Breeding early in the year was most likely in females in better condition (high lymphocyte and red blood cell counts). All the haematological parameters were affected adversely by high population densities. PMID:18564292

Brownian systems with spatially inhomogeneous activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, A.; Brader, J. M.

2017-09-01

We generalize the Green-Kubo approach, previously applied to bulk systems of spherically symmetric active particles [J. Chem. Phys. 145, 161101 (2016), 10.1063/1.4966153], to include spatially inhomogeneous activity. The method is applied to predict the spatial dependence of the average orientation per particle and the density. The average orientation is given by an integral over the self part of the Van Hove function and a simple Gaussian approximation to this quantity yields an accurate analytical expression. Taking this analytical result as input to a dynamic density functional theory approximates the spatial dependence of the density in good agreement with simulation data. All theoretical predictions are validated using Brownian dynamics simulations.

Diffusive dynamics during the high-to-low density transition in amorphous ice

DOE PAGES

Perakis, Fivos; Amann-Winkel, Katrin; Lehmkuhler, Felix; ...

2017-06-26

Water exists in high- and low-density amorphous ice forms (HDA and LDA), which could correspond to the glassy states of high- (HDL) and low-density liquid (LDL) in the metastable part of the phase diagram. However, the nature of both the glass transition and the high-to-low-density transition are debated and new experimental evidence is needed. Here we combine wide-angle X-ray scattering (WAXS) with X-ray photon-correlation spectroscopy (XPCS) in the small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) geometry to probe both the structural and dynamical properties during the high-to-low-density transition in amorphous ice at 1 bar. By analyzing the structure factor and the radial distributionmore » function, the coexistence of two structurally distinct domains is observed at T = 125 K. XPCS probes the dynamics in momentum space, which in the SAXS geometry reflects structural relaxation on the nanometer length scale. The dynamics of HDA are characterized by a slow component with a large time constant, arising from viscoelastic relaxation and stress release from nanometer-sized heterogeneities. Above 110 K a faster, strongly temperature-dependent component appears, with momentum transfer dependence pointing toward nanoscale diffusion. This dynamical component slows down after transition into the low-density form at 130 K, but remains diffusive. In conclusion, the diffusive character of both the high- and low-density forms is discussed among different interpretations and the results are most consistent with the hypothesis of a liquid–liquid transition in the ultraviscous regime.« less

Diffusive dynamics during the high-to-low density transition in amorphous ice

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perakis, Fivos; Amann-Winkel, Katrin; Lehmkuhler, Felix

Water exists in high- and low-density amorphous ice forms (HDA and LDA), which could correspond to the glassy states of high- (HDL) and low-density liquid (LDL) in the metastable part of the phase diagram. However, the nature of both the glass transition and the high-to-low-density transition are debated and new experimental evidence is needed. Here we combine wide-angle X-ray scattering (WAXS) with X-ray photon-correlation spectroscopy (XPCS) in the small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) geometry to probe both the structural and dynamical properties during the high-to-low-density transition in amorphous ice at 1 bar. By analyzing the structure factor and the radial distributionmore » function, the coexistence of two structurally distinct domains is observed at T = 125 K. XPCS probes the dynamics in momentum space, which in the SAXS geometry reflects structural relaxation on the nanometer length scale. The dynamics of HDA are characterized by a slow component with a large time constant, arising from viscoelastic relaxation and stress release from nanometer-sized heterogeneities. Above 110 K a faster, strongly temperature-dependent component appears, with momentum transfer dependence pointing toward nanoscale diffusion. This dynamical component slows down after transition into the low-density form at 130 K, but remains diffusive. In conclusion, the diffusive character of both the high- and low-density forms is discussed among different interpretations and the results are most consistent with the hypothesis of a liquid–liquid transition in the ultraviscous regime.« less

Diffusive dynamics during the high-to-low density transition in amorphous ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perakis, Fivos; Amann-Winkel, Katrin; Lehmkühler, Felix; Sprung, Michael; Mariedahl, Daniel; Sellberg, Jonas A.; Pathak, Harshad; Späh, Alexander; Cavalca, Filippo; Schlesinger, Daniel; Ricci, Alessandro; Jain, Avni; Massani, Bernhard; Aubree, Flora; Benmore, Chris J.; Loerting, Thomas; Grübel, Gerhard; Pettersson, Lars G. M.; Nilsson, Anders

2017-08-01

Water exists in high- and low-density amorphous ice forms (HDA and LDA), which could correspond to the glassy states of high- (HDL) and low-density liquid (LDL) in the metastable part of the phase diagram. However, the nature of both the glass transition and the high-to-low-density transition are debated and new experimental evidence is needed. Here we combine wide-angle X-ray scattering (WAXS) with X-ray photon-correlation spectroscopy (XPCS) in the small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) geometry to probe both the structural and dynamical properties during the high-to-low-density transition in amorphous ice at 1 bar. By analyzing the structure factor and the radial distribution function, the coexistence of two structurally distinct domains is observed at T = 125 K. XPCS probes the dynamics in momentum space, which in the SAXS geometry reflects structural relaxation on the nanometer length scale. The dynamics of HDA are characterized by a slow component with a large time constant, arising from viscoelastic relaxation and stress release from nanometer-sized heterogeneities. Above 110 K a faster, strongly temperature-dependent component appears, with momentum transfer dependence pointing toward nanoscale diffusion. This dynamical component slows down after transition into the low-density form at 130 K, but remains diffusive. The diffusive character of both the high- and low-density forms is discussed among different interpretations and the results are most consistent with the hypothesis of a liquid-liquid transition in the ultraviscous regime.

Recombination-pumped XUV lasing in capillary discharges and dynamic z-pinches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pöckl, M.; Hebenstreit, M.; Fertner, R.; Neger, T.; Aumayr, F.

1996-08-01

A fully time-dependent collisional - radiative model is employed to calculate relevant population densities in a recombining carbon/hydrogen z-pinch plasma. In particular, the dependence of the small signal gain G on the maximum electron temperature and cooling rate, as well as the influence of Lyman-0022-3727/29/8/005/img8 reabsorption, are studied. Although in conditions typical for dynamic z-pinches the maximum electron temperature and cooling rates would, in principle, be sufficiently high, gain on the Balmer-0022-3727/29/8/005/img8 transition is strongly reduced by Lyman-0022-3727/29/8/005/img8 reabsorption. In order to investigate vacuum spark capillary discharges, the system of rate equations is coupled with balance equations of the plasma energy and the total number of heavy particles. The resulting set of equations is solved self-consistently. Results are presented that show the systematic dependence of the small signal gain on electrical input power, wall material, and capillary geometry. High gain coefficients 0022-3727/29/8/005/img11 could be achieved by modelling high-voltage discharges with short ringing periods through capillaries containing boron or carbon. While the maximum achievable gain coefficient for lithium is rather poor 0022-3727/29/8/005/img12 the duration of population inversion would be long enough (a few tens of nanoseconds) to make multi-pass operation possible.

Contingency and statistical laws in replicate microbial closed ecosystems.

PubMed

Hekstra, Doeke R; Leibler, Stanislas

2012-05-25

Contingency, the persistent influence of past random events, pervades biology. To what extent, then, is each course of ecological or evolutionary dynamics unique, and to what extent are these dynamics subject to a common statistical structure? Addressing this question requires replicate measurements to search for emergent statistical laws. We establish a readily replicated microbial closed ecosystem (CES), sustaining its three species for years. We precisely measure the local population density of each species in many CES replicates, started from the same initial conditions and kept under constant light and temperature. The covariation among replicates of the three species densities acquires a stable structure, which could be decomposed into discrete eigenvectors, or "ecomodes." The largest ecomode dominates population density fluctuations around the replicate-average dynamics. These fluctuations follow simple power laws consistent with a geometric random walk. Thus, variability in ecological dynamics can be studied with CES replicates and described by simple statistical laws. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Density-dependent microbial turnover improves soil carbon model predictions of long-term litter manipulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgiou, Katerina; Abramoff, Rose; Harte, John; Riley, William; Torn, Margaret

2017-04-01

Climatic, atmospheric, and land-use changes all have the potential to alter soil microbial activity via abiotic effects on soil or mediated by changes in plant inputs. Recently, many promising microbial models of soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition have been proposed to advance understanding and prediction of climate and carbon (C) feedbacks. Most of these models, however, exhibit unrealistic oscillatory behavior and SOC insensitivity to long-term changes in C inputs. Here we diagnose the sources of instability in four models that span the range of complexity of these recent microbial models, by sequentially adding complexity to a simple model to include microbial physiology, a mineral sorption isotherm, and enzyme dynamics. We propose a formulation that introduces density-dependence of microbial turnover, which acts to limit population sizes and reduce oscillations. We compare these models to results from 24 long-term C-input field manipulations, including the Detritus Input and Removal Treatment (DIRT) experiments, to show that there are clear metrics that can be used to distinguish and validate the inherent dynamics of each model structure. We find that widely used first-order models and microbial models without density-dependence cannot readily capture the range of long-term responses observed across the DIRT experiments as a direct consequence of their model structures. The proposed formulation improves predictions of long-term C-input changes, and implies greater SOC storage associated with CO2-fertilization-driven increases in C inputs over the coming century compared to common microbial models. Finally, we discuss our findings in the context of improving microbial model behavior for inclusion in Earth System Models.

Quorum Sensing in Populations of Spatially Extended Chaotic Oscillators Coupled Indirectly via a Heterogeneous Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bing-Wei; Cao, Xiao-Zhi; Fu, Chenbo

2017-12-01

Many biological and chemical systems could be modeled by a population of oscillators coupled indirectly via a dynamical environment. Essentially, the environment by which the individual element communicates with each other is heterogeneous. Nevertheless, most of previous works considered the homogeneous case only. Here we investigated the dynamical behaviors in a population of spatially distributed chaotic oscillators immersed in a heterogeneous environment. Various dynamical synchronization states (such as oscillation death, phase synchronization, and complete synchronized oscillation) as well as their transitions were explored. In particular, we uncovered a non-traditional quorum sensing transition: increasing the population density leaded to a transition from oscillation death to synchronized oscillation at first, but further increasing the density resulted in degeneration from complete synchronization to phase synchronization or even from phase synchronization to desynchronization. The underlying mechanism of this finding was attributed to the dual roles played by the population density. What's more, by treating the environment as another component of the oscillator, the full system was then effectively equivalent to a locally coupled system. This fact allowed us to utilize the master stability functions approach to predict the occurrence of complete synchronization oscillation, which agreed with that from the direct numerical integration of the system. The potential candidates for the experimental realization of our model were also discussed.

Differential influences of local subpopulations on regional diversity and differentiation for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Row, Jeffery R.; Oyler-McCance, Sara J.; Fedy, Brad C.

2016-01-01

The distribution of spatial genetic variation across a region can shape evolutionary dynamics and impact population persistence. Local population dynamics and among-population dispersal rates are strong drivers of this spatial genetic variation, yet for many species we lack a clear understanding of how these population processes interact in space to shape within-species genetic variation. Here, we used extensive genetic and demographic data from 10 subpopulations of greater sage-grouse to parameterize a simulated approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) model and (i) test for regional differences in population density and dispersal rates for greater sage-grouse subpopulations in Wyoming, and (ii) quantify how these differences impact subpopulation regional influence on genetic variation. We found a close match between observed and simulated data under our parameterized model and strong variation in density and dispersal rates across Wyoming. Sensitivity analyses suggested that changes in dispersal (via landscape resistance) had a greater influence on regional differentiation, whereas changes in density had a greater influence on mean diversity across all subpopulations. Local subpopulations, however, varied in their regional influence on genetic variation. Decreases in the size and dispersal rates of central populations with low overall and net immigration (i.e. population sources) had the greatest negative impact on genetic variation. Overall, our results provide insight into the interactions among demography, dispersal and genetic variation and highlight the potential of ABC to disentangle the complexity of regional population dynamics and project the genetic impact of changing conditions.

Transverse Space-Charge Field-Induced Plasma Dynamics for Ultraintense Electron-Beam Characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarkeshian, R.; Vay, J. L.; Lehe, R.; Schroeder, C. B.; Esarey, E. H.; Feurer, T.; Leemans, W. P.

2018-04-01

Similarly to laser or x-ray beams, the interaction of sufficiently intense particle beams with neutral gases will result in the creation of plasma. In contrast to photon-based ionization, the strong unipolar field of a particle beam can generate a plasma where the electron population receives a large initial momentum kick and escapes, leaving behind unshielded ions. Measuring the properties of the ensuing Coulomb exploding ions—such as their kinetic energy distribution, yield, and spatial distribution—can provide information about the peak electric fields that are achieved in the electron beams. Particle-in-cell simulations and analytical models are presented for high-brightness electron beams of a few femtoseconds or even hundreds of attoseconds, and transverse beam sizes on the micron scale, as generated by today's free electron lasers. Different density regimes for the utilization as a potential diagnostics are explored, and the fundamental differences in plasma dynamical behavior for e-beam or photon-based ionization are highlighted. By measuring the dynamics of field-induced ions for different gas and beam densities, a lower bound on the beam charge density can be obtained in a single shot and in a noninvasive way. The exponential dependency of the ionization yield on the beam properties can provide unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution, at the submicrometer and subfemtosecond scales, respectively, offering a practical and powerful approach to characterizing beams from accelerators at the frontiers of performance.

Multimodel inference to quantify the relative importance of abiotic factors in the population dynamics of marine zooplankton

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Everaert, Gert; Deschutter, Yana; De Troch, Marleen; Janssen, Colin R.; De Schamphelaere, Karel

2018-05-01

The effect of multiple stressors on marine ecosystems remains poorly understood and most of the knowledge available is related to phytoplankton. To partly address this knowledge gap, we tested if combining multimodel inference with generalized additive modelling could quantify the relative contribution of environmental variables on the population dynamics of a zooplankton species in the Belgian part of the North Sea. Hence, we have quantified the relative contribution of oceanographic variables (e.g. water temperature, salinity, nutrient concentrations, and chlorophyll a concentrations) and anthropogenic chemicals (i.e. polychlorinated biphenyls) to the density of Acartia clausi. We found that models with water temperature and chlorophyll a concentration explained ca. 73% of the population density of the marine copepod. Multimodel inference in combination with regression-based models are a generic way to disentangle and quantify multiple stressor-induced changes in marine ecosystems. Future-oriented simulations of copepod densities suggested increased copepod densities under predicted environmental changes.

Primordial binary populations in low-density star clusters as seen by Chandra: globular clusters versus old open clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Berg, Maureen C.

2015-08-01

The binaries in the core of a star cluster are the energy source that prevents the cluster from experiencing core collapse. To model the dynamical evolution of a cluster, it is important to have constraints on the primordial binary content. X-ray observations of old star clusters are very efficient in detecting the close interacting binaries among the cluster members. The X-ray sources in star clusters are a mix of binaries that were dynamically formed and primordial binaries. In massive, dense star clusters, dynamical encounters play an important role in shaping the properties and numbers of the binaries. In contrast, in the low-density clusters the impact of dynamical encounters is presumed to be very small, and the close binaries detected in X-rays represent a primordial population. The lowest density globular clusters have current masses and central densities similar to those of the oldest open clusters in our Milky Way. I will discuss the results of studies with the Chandra X-ray Observatory that have nevertheless revealed a clear dichotomy: far fewer (if any at all) X-ray sources are detected in the central regions of the low-density globular clusters compared to the number of secure cluster members that have been detected in old open clusters (above a limiting X-ray luminosity of typically 4e30 erg/s). The low stellar encounter rates imply that dynamical destruction of binaries can be ignored at present, therefore an explanation must be sought elsewhere. I will discuss several factors that can shed light on the implied differences between the primordial close binary populations in the two types of star clusters.

The dynamics of fish populations in the Palancar stream,a small tributary of the river Guadalquivir, Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bravo, Ramón; Soriguer, Mila C.; Villar, Noelia; Hernando, José A.

2001-02-01

The relationship between flooding and changes in the size distribution of fish populations in the Palancar stream confirms observations in other rivers. On average, density decreased by 36.2 % and biomass increased by 14.5 %, passing from a period of severe drought to one of heavier than normal rains. Precipitation is the most important of the many factors affecting the populations of the Palancar stream; the most evident changes all occurred after the drought. During the drought period, the marked seasonal fluctuation in flow was the most important factor regulating the population dynamics. Fish density and biomass varied in proportion to the water volume. During the rainy period, the studied section of the river was found to be an important reproduction and nursery area, with juveniles and individuals of reproduction age dominating. The presence of Micropterus salmoides, an introduced piscivorous species, is another factor affecting the population dynamics in the Palancar stream. The observed absence of age 0+ individuals of the dominant populations is considered a direct effect of predation.

Dispersal responses override density effects on genetic diversity during post-disturbance succession

PubMed Central

Landguth, Erin L.; Bull, C. Michael; Banks, Sam C.; Gardner, Michael G.; Driscoll, Don A.

2016-01-01

Dispersal fundamentally influences spatial population dynamics but little is known about dispersal variation in landscapes where spatial heterogeneity is generated predominantly by disturbance and succession. We tested the hypothesis that habitat succession following fire inhibits dispersal, leading to declines over time in genetic diversity in the early successional gecko Nephrurus stellatus. We combined a landscape genetics field study with a spatially explicit simulation experiment to determine whether successional patterns in genetic diversity were driven by habitat-mediated dispersal or demographic effects (declines in population density leading to genetic drift). Initial increases in genetic structure following fire were likely driven by direct mortality and rapid population expansion. Subsequent habitat succession increased resistance to gene flow and decreased dispersal and genetic diversity in N. stellatus. Simulated changes in population density alone did not reproduce these results. Habitat-mediated reductions in dispersal, combined with changes in population density, were essential to drive the field-observed patterns. Our study provides a framework for combining demographic, movement and genetic data with simulations to discover the relative influence of demography and dispersal on patterns of landscape genetic structure. Our results suggest that succession can inhibit connectivity among individuals, opening new avenues for understanding how disturbance regimes influence spatial population dynamics. PMID:27009225

Self-amplified photo-induced gap quenching in a correlated electron material

PubMed Central

Mathias, S.; Eich, S.; Urbancic, J.; Michael, S.; Carr, A. V.; Emmerich, S.; Stange, A.; Popmintchev, T.; Rohwer, T.; Wiesenmayer, M.; Ruffing, A.; Jakobs, S.; Hellmann, S.; Matyba, P.; Chen, C.; Kipp, L.; Bauer, M.; Kapteyn, H. C.; Schneider, H. C.; Rossnagel, K.; Murnane, M. M.; Aeschlimann, M.

2016-01-01

Capturing the dynamic electronic band structure of a correlated material presents a powerful capability for uncovering the complex couplings between the electronic and structural degrees of freedom. When combined with ultrafast laser excitation, new phases of matter can result, since far-from-equilibrium excited states are instantaneously populated. Here, we elucidate a general relation between ultrafast non-equilibrium electron dynamics and the size of the characteristic energy gap in a correlated electron material. We show that carrier multiplication via impact ionization can be one of the most important processes in a gapped material, and that the speed of carrier multiplication critically depends on the size of the energy gap. In the case of the charge-density wave material 1T-TiSe2, our data indicate that carrier multiplication and gap dynamics mutually amplify each other, which explains—on a microscopic level—the extremely fast response of this material to ultrafast optical excitation. PMID:27698341

Time-dependent density functional theory for open systems with a positivity-preserving decomposition scheme for environment spectral functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, RuLin; Zheng, Xiao; Kwok, YanHo; Xie, Hang; Chen, GuanHua; Yam, ChiYung

2015-04-01

Understanding electronic dynamics on material surfaces is fundamentally important for applications including nanoelectronics, inhomogeneous catalysis, and photovoltaics. Practical approaches based on time-dependent density functional theory for open systems have been developed to characterize the dissipative dynamics of electrons in bulk materials. The accuracy and reliability of such approaches depend critically on how the electronic structure and memory effects of surrounding material environment are accounted for. In this work, we develop a novel squared-Lorentzian decomposition scheme, which preserves the positive semi-definiteness of the environment spectral matrix. The resulting electronic dynamics is guaranteed to be both accurate and convergent even in the long-time limit. The long-time stability of electronic dynamics simulation is thus greatly improved within the current decomposition scheme. The validity and usefulness of our new approach are exemplified via two prototypical model systems: quasi-one-dimensional atomic chains and two-dimensional bilayer graphene.

Mixed-mode oscillations and population bursting in the pre-Bötzinger complex

PubMed Central

Bacak, Bartholomew J; Kim, Taegyo; Smith, Jeffrey C; Rubin, Jonathan E; Rybak, Ilya A

2016-01-01

This study focuses on computational and theoretical investigations of neuronal activity arising in the pre-Bötzinger complex (pre-BötC), a medullary region generating the inspiratory phase of breathing in mammals. A progressive increase of neuronal excitability in medullary slices containing the pre-BötC produces mixed-mode oscillations (MMOs) characterized by large amplitude population bursts alternating with a series of small amplitude bursts. Using two different computational models, we demonstrate that MMOs emerge within a heterogeneous excitatory neural network because of progressive neuronal recruitment and synchronization. The MMO pattern depends on the distributed neuronal excitability, the density and weights of network interconnections, and the cellular properties underlying endogenous bursting. Critically, the latter should provide a reduction of spiking frequency within neuronal bursts with increasing burst frequency and a dependence of the after-burst recovery period on burst amplitude. Our study highlights a novel mechanism by which heterogeneity naturally leads to complex dynamics in rhythmic neuronal populations. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.13403.001 PMID:26974345

Discontinuous Galerkin finite element method for solving population density functions of cortical pyramidal and thalamic neuronal populations.

PubMed

Huang, Chih-Hsu; Lin, Chou-Ching K; Ju, Ming-Shaung

2015-02-01

Compared with the Monte Carlo method, the population density method is efficient for modeling collective dynamics of neuronal populations in human brain. In this method, a population density function describes the probabilistic distribution of states of all neurons in the population and it is governed by a hyperbolic partial differential equation. In the past, the problem was mainly solved by using the finite difference method. In a previous study, a continuous Galerkin finite element method was found better than the finite difference method for solving the hyperbolic partial differential equation; however, the population density function often has discontinuity and both methods suffer from a numerical stability problem. The goal of this study is to improve the numerical stability of the solution using discontinuous Galerkin finite element method. To test the performance of the new approach, interaction of a population of cortical pyramidal neurons and a population of thalamic neurons was simulated. The numerical results showed good agreement between results of discontinuous Galerkin finite element and Monte Carlo methods. The convergence and accuracy of the solutions are excellent. The numerical stability problem could be resolved using the discontinuous Galerkin finite element method which has total-variation-diminishing property. The efficient approach will be employed to simulate the electroencephalogram or dynamics of thalamocortical network which involves three populations, namely, thalamic reticular neurons, thalamocortical neurons and cortical pyramidal neurons. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Individual-based modelling of population growth and diffusion in discrete time.

PubMed

Tkachenko, Natalie; Weissmann, John D; Petersen, Wesley P; Lake, George; Zollikofer, Christoph P E; Callegari, Simone

2017-01-01

Individual-based models (IBMs) of human populations capture spatio-temporal dynamics using rules that govern the birth, behavior, and death of individuals. We explore a stochastic IBM of logistic growth-diffusion with constant time steps and independent, simultaneous actions of birth, death, and movement that approaches the Fisher-Kolmogorov model in the continuum limit. This model is well-suited to parallelization on high-performance computers. We explore its emergent properties with analytical approximations and numerical simulations in parameter ranges relevant to human population dynamics and ecology, and reproduce continuous-time results in the limit of small transition probabilities. Our model prediction indicates that the population density and dispersal speed are affected by fluctuations in the number of individuals. The discrete-time model displays novel properties owing to the binomial character of the fluctuations: in certain regimes of the growth model, a decrease in time step size drives the system away from the continuum limit. These effects are especially important at local population sizes of <50 individuals, which largely correspond to group sizes of hunter-gatherers. As an application scenario, we model the late Pleistocene dispersal of Homo sapiens into the Americas, and discuss the agreement of model-based estimates of first-arrival dates with archaeological dates in dependence of IBM model parameter settings.

Life-history plasticity and sustainable exploitation: a theory of growth compensation applied to walleye management.

PubMed

Lester, Nigel P; Shuter, Brian J; Venturelli, Paul; Nadeau, Daniel

2014-01-01

A simple population model was developed to evaluate the role of plastic and evolutionary life-history changes on sustainable exploitation rates. Plastic changes are embodied in density-dependent compensatory adjustments to somatic growth rate and larval/juvenile survival, which can compensate for the reductions in reproductive lifetime and mean population fecundity that accompany the higher adult mortality imposed by exploitation. Evolutionary changes are embodied in the selective pressures that higher adult mortality imposes on age at maturity, length at maturity, and reproductive investment. Analytical development, based on a biphasic growth model, led to simple equations that show explicitly how sustainable exploitation rates are bounded by each of these effects. We show that density-dependent growth combined with a fixed length at maturity and fixed reproductive investment can support exploitation-driven mortality that is 80% of the level supported by evolutionary changes in maturation and reproductive investment. Sustainable fishing mortality is proportional to natural mortality (M) times the degree of density-dependent growth, as modified by both the degree of density-dependent early survival and the minimum harvestable length. We applied this model to estimate sustainable exploitation rates for North American walleye populations (Sander vitreus). Our analysis of demographic data from walleye populations spread across a broad latitudinal range indicates that density-dependent variation in growth rate can vary by a factor of 2. Implications of this growth response are generally consistent with empirical studies suggesting that optimal fishing mortality is approximately 0.75M for teleosts. This approach can be adapted to the management of other species, particularly when significant exploitation is imposed on many, widely distributed, but geographically isolated populations.

Population dynamics of earthworms in relation to soil physico-chemical parameters in agroforestry systems of Mizoram, India.

PubMed

Lalthanzara, H; Ramanujam, S N; Jha, L K

2011-09-01

Earthworm population dynamics was studied in two agroforestry systems in the tropical hilly terrain of Mizoram, north-east India, over a period of 24 months, from July 2002 to June 2004. Two sites of agroforestry situated at Sakawrtuichhun (SKT) and Pachhunga University College (PUC) campus, Aizawl, having pineapple as the main crop, were selected for detail studies on population dynamics. Five of the total twelve species of earthworm reported from the state were recorded in the study sites. The density of earthworm ranged from 6 to 243 ind.m(-2) and biomass from 3.2 - 677.64 g.m(-2) in SKT. Comparatively the density and biomass in PUC, which is at relatively higher altitude were lowerwith a range of 0 to 176 ind.m(-2) and biomass from 0 - 391.36 g.m(-2) respectively. Population dynamics of earthworm was significantly correlated with rainfall and physical characters of the soil. Earthworm biomass was significantly affected by rainfall and moisture content of the soil. The influence of chemical factors was relatively less.

Evolutionary dynamics of fearfulness and boldness.

PubMed

Ji, Ting; Zhang, Boyu; Sun, Yuehua; Tao, Yi

2009-02-21

A negative relationship between reproductive effort and survival is consistent with life-history. Evolutionary dynamics and evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) for the trade-off between survival and reproduction are investigated using a simple model with two phenotypes, fearfulness and boldness. The dynamical stability of the pure strategy model and analysis of ESS conditions reveal that: (i) the simple coexistence of fearfulness and boldness is impossible; (ii) a small population size is favorable to fearfulness, but a large population size is favorable to boldness, i.e., neither fearfulness, nor boldness is always favored by natural selection; and (iii) the dynamics of population density is crucial for a proper understanding of the strategy dynamics.

On the Gause predator-prey model with a refuge: a fresh look at the history.

PubMed

Křivan, Vlastimil

2011-04-07

This article re-analyses a prey-predator model with a refuge introduced by one of the founders of population ecology Gause and his co-workers to explain discrepancies between their observations and predictions of the Lotka-Volterra prey-predator model. They replaced the linear functional response used by Lotka and Volterra by a saturating functional response with a discontinuity at a critical prey density. At concentrations below this critical density prey were effectively in a refuge while at a higher densities they were available to predators. Thus, their functional response was of the Holling type III. They analyzed this model and predicted existence of a limit cycle in predator-prey dynamics. In this article I show that their model is ill posed, because trajectories are not well defined. Using the Filippov method, I define and analyze solutions of the Gause model. I show that depending on parameter values, there are three possibilities: (1) trajectories converge to a limit cycle, as predicted by Gause, (2) trajectories converge to an equilibrium, or (3) the prey population escapes predator control and grows to infinity. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Deep spectroscopy of nearby galaxy clusters - IV. The quench of the star formation in galaxies in the infall region of Abell 85

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguerri, J. A. L.; Agulli, I.; Méndez-Abreu, J.

2018-06-01

Our aim is to understand the role of the environment in the quenching of star formation of galaxies located in the infall cluster region of Abell 85 (A85). This is achieved by studying the post-starburst galaxy population as tracer of recent quenching. By measuring the equivalent width (EW) of the [O II] and Hδ spectral lines, we classify the galaxies into three groups: passive (PAS), emission line (EL), and post-starburst (PSB) galaxies. The PSB galaxy population represents ˜ 4.5 per cent of the full sample. Dwarf galaxies (Mr > -18.0) account for ˜ 70 - 80 per cent of PSBs, which indicates that most of the galaxies undergoing recent quenching are low-mass objects. Independently of the environment, PSB galaxies are disc-like objects with g - r colour between the blue ELs and the red PAS ones. The PSB and EL galaxies in low-density environments show similar luminosities and local galaxy densities. The dynamics and local galaxy density of the PSB population in high-density environments are shared with PAS galaxies. However, PSB galaxies inside A85 are at shorter clustercentric radius than PAS and EL ones. The value of the EW(Hδ) is larger for those PSBs closer to the cluster centre. We propose two different physical mechanisms producing PSB galaxies depending on the environment. In low-density environments, gas-rich minor mergers or accretions could produce the PSB galaxies. For high-density environments like A85, PSBs would be produced by the removal of the gas reservoirs of EL galaxies by ram-pressure stripping when they pass near the cluster centre.

The importance of functional form in optimal control solutions of problems in population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runge, M.C.; Johnson, F.A.

2002-01-01

Optimal control theory is finding increased application in both theoretical and applied ecology, and it is a central element of adaptive resource management. One of the steps in an adaptive management process is to develop alternative models of system dynamics, models that are all reasonable in light of available data, but that differ substantially in their implications for optimal control of the resource. We explored how the form of the recruitment and survival functions in a general population model for ducks affected the patterns in the optimal harvest strategy, using a combination of analytical, numerical, and simulation techniques. We compared three relationships between recruitment and population density (linear, exponential, and hyperbolic) and three relationships between survival during the nonharvest season and population density (constant, logistic, and one related to the compensatory harvest mortality hypothesis). We found that the form of the component functions had a dramatic influence on the optimal harvest strategy and the ultimate equilibrium state of the system. For instance, while it is commonly assumed that a compensatory hypothesis leads to higher optimal harvest rates than an additive hypothesis, we found this to depend on the form of the recruitment function, in part because of differences in the optimal steady-state population density. This work has strong direct consequences for those developing alternative models to describe harvested systems, but it is relevant to a larger class of problems applying optimal control at the population level. Often, different functional forms will not be statistically distinguishable in the range of the data. Nevertheless, differences between the functions outside the range of the data can have an important impact on the optimal harvest strategy. Thus, development of alternative models by identifying a single functional form, then choosing different parameter combinations from extremes on the likelihood profile may end up producing alternatives that do not differ as importantly as if different functional forms had been used. We recommend that biological knowledge be used to bracket a range of possible functional forms, and robustness of conclusions be checked over this range.

Mesoscale spatiotemporal variability in a complex host-parasite system influenced by intermediate host body size

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Background Parasites are essential components of natural communities, but the factors that generate skewed distributions of parasite occurrences and abundances across host populations are not well understood. Methods Here, we analyse at a seascape scale the spatiotemporal relationships of parasite exposure and host body-size with the proportion of infected hosts (i.e., prevalence) and aggregation of parasite burden across ca. 150 km of the coast and over 22 months. We predicted that the effects of parasite exposure on prevalence and aggregation are dependent on host body-sizes. We used an indirect host-parasite interaction in which migratory seagulls, sandy-shore molecrabs, and an acanthocephalan worm constitute the definitive hosts, intermediate hosts, and endoparasite, respectively. In such complex systems, increments in the abundance of definitive hosts imply increments in intermediate hosts’ exposure to the parasite’s dispersive stages. Results Linear mixed-effects models showed a significant, albeit highly variable, positive relationship between seagull density and prevalence. This relationship was stronger for small (cephalothorax length >15 mm) than large molecrabs (<15 mm). Independently of seagull density, large molecrabs carried significantly more parasites than small molecrabs. The analysis of the variance-to-mean ratio of per capita parasite burden showed no relationship between seagull density and mean parasite aggregation across host populations. However, the amount of unexplained variability in aggregation was strikingly higher in larger than smaller intermediate hosts. This unexplained variability was driven by a decrease in the mean-variance scaling in heavily infected large molecrabs. Conclusions These results show complex interdependencies between extrinsic and intrinsic population attributes on the structure of host-parasite interactions. We suggest that parasite accumulation—a characteristic of indirect host-parasite interactions—and subsequent increasing mortality rates over ontogeny underpin size-dependent host-parasite dynamics. PMID:28828270

Mesoscale spatiotemporal variability in a complex host-parasite system influenced by intermediate host body size.

PubMed

Rodríguez, Sara M; Valdivia, Nelson

2017-01-01

Parasites are essential components of natural communities, but the factors that generate skewed distributions of parasite occurrences and abundances across host populations are not well understood. Here, we analyse at a seascape scale the spatiotemporal relationships of parasite exposure and host body-size with the proportion of infected hosts (i.e., prevalence) and aggregation of parasite burden across ca. 150 km of the coast and over 22 months. We predicted that the effects of parasite exposure on prevalence and aggregation are dependent on host body-sizes. We used an indirect host-parasite interaction in which migratory seagulls, sandy-shore molecrabs, and an acanthocephalan worm constitute the definitive hosts, intermediate hosts, and endoparasite, respectively. In such complex systems, increments in the abundance of definitive hosts imply increments in intermediate hosts' exposure to the parasite's dispersive stages. Linear mixed-effects models showed a significant, albeit highly variable, positive relationship between seagull density and prevalence. This relationship was stronger for small (cephalothorax length >15 mm) than large molecrabs (<15 mm). Independently of seagull density, large molecrabs carried significantly more parasites than small molecrabs. The analysis of the variance-to-mean ratio of per capita parasite burden showed no relationship between seagull density and mean parasite aggregation across host populations. However, the amount of unexplained variability in aggregation was strikingly higher in larger than smaller intermediate hosts. This unexplained variability was driven by a decrease in the mean-variance scaling in heavily infected large molecrabs. These results show complex interdependencies between extrinsic and intrinsic population attributes on the structure of host-parasite interactions. We suggest that parasite accumulation-a characteristic of indirect host-parasite interactions-and subsequent increasing mortality rates over ontogeny underpin size-dependent host-parasite dynamics.

Swarming Patterns in a Two-Dimensional Kinematic Model for Biological Groups

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Topaz, Chad

2004-03-01

We construct a continuum model for the motion of biological organisms experiencing social interactions and study its pattern-forming behavior. The model takes the form of a conservation law in two spatial dimensions. Social interactions are modeled in the velocity term, which is nonlocal in the population density. The dynamics of the model may be uniquely decomposed into incompressible motion and potential motion. For the purely incompressible case, the model resembles that for fluid dynamical vortex patches. There exist solutions that have constant population density and compact support for all time. Numerical simulations produce rotating structures with circular cores and spiral arms, reminiscent of naturally observed swarms such as ant mills. For the purely potential case, the model resembles a nonlocal (forwards or backwards) porous media equation, describing aggregation or dispersion of the population. For the aggregative case, the population clumps into regions of high and low density with a predictable characteristic length scale that is confirmed by numerical simulations.

Emerging landscape degradation trends in the East African Horn

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pricope, N. G.; Michaelsen, J.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Lopez-Carr, D.

2012-12-01

Increasing climate variability along with declining trends in rainfall represent major risk factors affecting food security in many regions of the world. We identify Africa-wide regions where significant rainfall decreases from 1979-2011 are coupled with significant human population density increases. The rangelands of the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions with significantly increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. Widespread vegetation degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using MODIS land cover and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data collected since 2000, we observe significant changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade across the East African Horn and demonstrate that these two products can be used concurrently at large spatial scales to monitor vegetation dynamics at decadal time scales. Results demonstrate that a near doubling of the population in pastoral regions is linked with hotspots of degradation in vegetation condition. The most significant land cover change and browning trends are observed in areas experiencing drying precipitation trends in addition to increasing population pressures. These findings have serious implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting and for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected to continue increasing against a backdrop of drying climate trends.Fig.1(a)Change in standardized precipitation index in Africa between 1979-2010 (b)Change in population density at continental scale using the GRUMPv1 1990 and 2000 and AfriPop 2010 population density datasets Fig.2 Land cover change trajectories based on 2001-2009 MOD12Q1 Land Cover product for the East African Horn overlaid over aggregated FEWS Net Livelihoods Zones.

Predator-induced synchrony in population oscillations of coexisting small mammal species.

PubMed

Korpimäki, Erkki; Norrdahl, Kai; Huitu, Otso; Klemola, Tero

2005-01-22

Comprehensive analyses of long-term (1977-2003) small-mammal abundance data from western Finland showed that populations of Microtus voles (field voles M. agrestis and sibling voles M. rossiaemeridionalis) voles, bank (Clethrionomys glareolus) and common shrews (Sorex araneus) fluctuated synchronously in 3 year population cycles. Time-series analyses indicated that interspecific synchrony is influenced strongly by density-dependent processes. Synchrony among Microtus and bank voles appeared additionally to be influenced by density-independent processes. To test whether interspecific synchronization through density-dependent processes is caused by predation, we experimentally reduced the densities of the main predators of small mammals in four large agricultural areas, and compared small mammal abundances in these to those in four control areas (2.5-3 km(2)) through a 3 year small-mammal population cycle. Predator reduction increased densities of the main prey species, Microtus voles, in all phases of the population cycle, while bank voles, the most important alternative prey of predators, responded positively only in the low and the increase phase. Manipulation also increased the autumn densities of water voles (Arvicola terrestris) in the increase phase of the cycle. No treatment effects were detected for common shrews or mice. Our results are in accordance with the alternative prey hypothesis, by which predators successively reduce the densities of both main and alternative prey species after the peak phase of small-mammal population cycles, thus inducing a synchronous low phase.

Effects of Interactions among Heterodera glycines, Meloidogyne incognita, and Host Genotype on Soybean Yield and Nematode Population Densities

PubMed Central

Niblack, T. L.; Hussey, R. S.; Boerma, H. R.

1986-01-01

The effects of host genotype and initial nematode population densities (Pi) on yield of soybean and soil population densities of Heterodera glycines (Hg) race 3 and Meloidogyne incognita (Mi) race 3 were studied in a greenhouse and field microplots in 1983 and 1984. Centennial (resistant to Hg and Mi), Braxton (resistant to Mi, susceptible to Hg), and Coker 237 (susceptible to Hg and Mi) were planted in soil infested with 0, 31, or 124 eggs of Hg and Mi, individually and in all combinations, per 100 cm³ soil. Yield responses of the soybean cultivars to individual and combined infestations of Hg and Mi were primarily dependent on soybean resistance or susceptibility to each species separately. Yield of Centennial was stimulated or unaffected by nematode treatments, yield of Braxton was suppressed by Hg only, and yield suppressions caused by Hg and Mi were additive and dependent on Pi for Coker 237. Other plant responses to nematodes were also dependent on host resistance or susceptibility. Population densities of Mi second-stage juveniles (J2) in soil were related to Mi Pi and remained constant in the presence of Hg for all three cultivars. Population densities of Hg J2 on the two Hg-susceptible Cultivars, Braxton and Coker 237, were suppressed in the presence of Mi at low Hg Pi. PMID:19294208

Population and Environment

PubMed Central

de Sherbinin, Alex; Carr, David; Cassels, Susan; Jiang, Leiwen

2009-01-01

The interactions between human population dynamics and the environment have often been viewed mechanistically. This review elucidates the complexities and contextual specificities of population-environment relationships in a number of domains. It explores the ways in which demographers and other social scientists have sought to understand the relationships among a full range of population dynamics (e.g., population size, growth, density, age and sex composition, migration, urbanization, vital rates) and environmental changes. The chapter briefly reviews a number of the theories for understanding population and the environment and then proceeds to provide a state-of-the-art review of studies that have examined population dynamics and their relationship to five environmental issue areas. The review concludes by relating population-environment research to emerging work on human-environment systems. PMID:20011237

a Time-Dependent Many-Electron Approach to Atomic and Molecular Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Runge, Keith

A new methodology is developed for the description of electronic rearrangement in atomic and molecular collisions. Using the eikonal representation of the total wavefunction, time -dependent equations are derived for the electronic densities within the time-dependent Hartree-Fock approximation. An averaged effective potential which ensures time reversal invariance is used to describe the effect of the fast electronic transitions on the slower nuclear motions. Electron translation factors (ETF) are introduced to eliminate spurious asymptotic couplings, and a local ETF is incorporated into a basis of traveling atomic orbitals. A reference density is used to describe local electronic relaxation and to account for the time propagation of fast and slow motions, and is shown to lead to an efficient integration scheme. Expressions for time-dependent electronic populations and polarization parameters are given. Electronic integrals over Gaussians including ETFs are derived to extend electronic state calculations to dynamical phenomena. Results of the method are in good agreement with experimental data for charge transfer integral cross sections over a projectile energy range of three orders of magnitude in the proton-Hydrogen atom system. The more demanding calculations of integral alignment, state-to-state integral cross sections, and differential cross sections are found to agree well with experimental data provided care is taken to include ETFs in the calculation of electronic integrals and to choose the appropriate effective potential. The method is found to be in good agreement with experimental data for the calculation of charge transfer integral cross sections and state-to-state integral cross sections in the one-electron heteronuclear Helium(2+)-Hydrogen atom system and in the two-electron system, Hydrogen atom-Hydrogen atom. Time-dependent electronic populations are seen to oscillate rapidly in the midst of collision event. In particular, multiple exchanges of the electron are seen to occur in the proton-Hydrogen atom system at low collision energies. The concepts and results derived from the approach provide new insight into the dynamics of nuclear screening and electronic rearrangement in atomic collisions.

Sample and population exponents of generalized Taylor's law.

PubMed

Giometto, Andrea; Formentin, Marco; Rinaldo, Andrea; Cohen, Joel E; Maritan, Amos

2015-06-23

Taylor's law (TL) states that the variance V of a nonnegative random variable is a power function of its mean M; i.e., V = aM(b). TL has been verified extensively in ecology, where it applies to population abundance, physics, and other natural sciences. Its ubiquitous empirical verification suggests a context-independent mechanism. Sample exponents b measured empirically via the scaling of sample mean and variance typically cluster around the value b = 2. Some theoretical models of population growth, however, predict a broad range of values for the population exponent b pertaining to the mean and variance of population density, depending on details of the growth process. Is the widely reported sample exponent b ≃ 2 the result of ecological processes or could it be a statistical artifact? Here, we apply large deviations theory and finite-sample arguments to show exactly that in a broad class of growth models the sample exponent is b ≃ 2 regardless of the underlying population exponent. We derive a generalized TL in terms of sample and population exponents b(jk) for the scaling of the kth vs. the jth cumulants. The sample exponent b(jk) depends predictably on the number of samples and for finite samples we obtain b(jk) ≃ k = j asymptotically in time, a prediction that we verify in two empirical examples. Thus, the sample exponent b ≃ 2 may indeed be a statistical artifact and not dependent on population dynamics under conditions that we specify exactly. Given the broad class of models investigated, our results apply to many fields where TL is used although inadequately understood.

Relationships between human population density and burned area at continental and global scales.

PubMed

Bistinas, Ioannis; Oom, Duarte; Sá, Ana C L; Harrison, Sandy P; Prentice, I Colin; Pereira, José M C

2013-01-01

We explore the large spatial variation in the relationship between population density and burned area, using continental-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) based on 13 years of satellite-derived burned area maps from the global fire emissions database (GFED) and the human population density from the gridded population of the world (GPW 2005). Significant relationships are observed over 51.5% of the global land area, and the area affected varies from continent to continent: population density has a significant impact on fire over most of Asia and Africa but is important in explaining fire over < 22% of Europe and Australia. Increasing population density is associated with both increased and decreased in fire. The nature of the relationship depends on land-use: increasing population density is associated with increased burned are in rangelands but with decreased burned area in croplands. Overall, the relationship between population density and burned area is non-monotonic: burned area initially increases with population density and then decreases when population density exceeds a threshold. These thresholds vary regionally. Our study contributes to improved understanding of how human activities relate to burned area, and should contribute to a better estimate of atmospheric emissions from biomass burning.

Relationships between Human Population Density and Burned Area at Continental and Global Scales

PubMed Central

Bistinas, Ioannis; Oom, Duarte; Sá, Ana C. L.; Harrison, Sandy P.; Prentice, I. Colin; Pereira, José M. C.

2013-01-01

We explore the large spatial variation in the relationship between population density and burned area, using continental-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) based on 13 years of satellite-derived burned area maps from the global fire emissions database (GFED) and the human population density from the gridded population of the world (GPW 2005). Significant relationships are observed over 51.5% of the global land area, and the area affected varies from continent to continent: population density has a significant impact on fire over most of Asia and Africa but is important in explaining fire over < 22% of Europe and Australia. Increasing population density is associated with both increased and decreased in fire. The nature of the relationship depends on land-use: increasing population density is associated with increased burned are in rangelands but with decreased burned area in croplands. Overall, the relationship between population density and burned area is non-monotonic: burned area initially increases with population density and then decreases when population density exceeds a threshold. These thresholds vary regionally. Our study contributes to improved understanding of how human activities relate to burned area, and should contribute to a better estimate of atmospheric emissions from biomass burning. PMID:24358108

Single-molecule interfacial electron transfer dynamics in solar energy conversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhital, Bharat

This dissertation work investigated the parameters affecting the interfacial electron transfer (ET) dynamics in dye-semiconductor nanoparticles (NPs) system by using single-molecule fluorescence spectroscopy and imaging combined with electrochemistry. The influence of the molecule-substrate electronic coupling, the molecular structure, binding geometry on the surface and the molecule-attachment surface chemistry on interfacial charge transfer processes was studied on zinc porphyrin-TiO2 NP systems. The fluorescence blinking measurement on TiO2 NP demonstrated that electronic coupling regulates dynamics of charge transfer processes at the interface depending on the conformation of molecule on the surface. Moreover, semiconductor surface charge induced electronic coupling of molecule which is electrostatically adsorbed on the semiconductor surface also predominantly alters the ET dynamics. Furthermore, interfacial electric field and electron accepting state density dependent ET dynamics has been dissected in zinc porphyrin-TiO2 NP system by observing the single-molecule fluorescence blinking dynamics and fluorescence lifetime with and without applied bias. The significant difference in fluorescence fluctuation and lifetime suggested the modulation of charge transfer dynamics at the interface with external electric field perturbation. Quasi-continuous distribution of fluorescence intensity with applied negative potential was attributed to the faster charge recombination due to reduced density of electron accepting states. The driving force and electron accepting state density ET dependent dynamics has also been probed in zinc porphyrin-TiO2 NP and zinc porphyrin-indium tin oxide (ITO) systems. Study of a molecule adsorbed on two different semiconductors (ITO and TiO2), with large difference in electron densities and distinct driving forces, allows us to observe the changes in rates of back electron transfer process reflected by the suppressed fluorescence blinking of molecule on ITO surface. Finally, the electric field effect on the interface properties has been probed by using surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy and supported by density functional theory calculations in alizarin-TiO2 system. The perturbation, created by the external potential, has been observed to cause a shift and/or splitting interfacial bond vibrational mode, typical indicator of the coupling energy changes between alizarin and TiO2. Such splitting provides evidence for electric field-dependent electronic coupling changes that have a significant impact on the interfacial electron transfer dynamics.

Effects of local biotic neighbors and habitat heterogeneity on tree and shrub seedling survival in an old-growth temperate forest.

PubMed

Bai, Xuejiao; Queenborough, Simon A; Wang, Xugao; Zhang, Jian; Li, Buhang; Yuan, Zuoqiang; Xing, Dingliang; Lin, Fei; Ye, Ji; Hao, Zhanqing

2012-11-01

Seedling dynamics play a crucial role in determining species distributions and coexistence. Exploring causes of variation in seedling dynamics can therefore provide key insights into the factors affecting these phenomena. We examined the relative importance of biotic neighborhood processes and habitat heterogeneity using survival data for 5,827 seedlings in 39 tree and shrub species over 2 years from an old-growth temperate forest in northeastern China. We found significant negative density-dependence effects on survival of tree seedlings, and limited effects of habitat heterogeneity (edaphic and topographic variables) on survival of shrub seedlings. The importance of negative density dependence on young tree seedling survival was replaced by habitat in tree seedlings ≥ 4 years old. As expected, negative density dependence was more apparent in gravity-dispersed species compared to wind-dispersed and animal-dispersed species. Moreover, we found that a community compensatory trend existed for trees. Therefore, although negative density dependence was not as pervasive as in other forest communities, it is an important mechanism for the maintenance of community diversity in this temperate forest. We conclude that both negative density dependence and habitat heterogeneity drive seedling survival, but their relative importance varies with seedling age classes and species traits.

Productivity, biodiversity, and pathogens influence the global hunter-gatherer population density.

PubMed

Tallavaara, Miikka; Eronen, Jussi T; Luoto, Miska

2018-02-06

The environmental drivers of species distributions and abundances are at the core of ecological research. However, the effects of these drivers on human abundance are not well-known. Here, we report how net primary productivity, biodiversity, and pathogen stress affect human population density using global ethnographic hunter-gatherer data. Our results show that productivity has significant effects on population density globally. The most important direct drivers, however, depend on environmental conditions: biodiversity influences population density exclusively in low-productivity regions, whereas pathogen stress does so in high-productivity regions. Our results also indicate that subtropical and temperate forest biomes provide the highest carrying capacity for hunter-gatherer populations. These findings document that environmental factors play a key role in shaping global population density patterns of preagricultural humans.