An Improved Internal Consistency Reliability Estimate.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cliff, Norman

1984-01-01

The proposed coefficient is derived by assuming that the average Goodman-Kruskal gamma between items of identical difficulty would be the same for items of different difficulty. An estimate of covariance between items of identical difficulty leads to an estimate of the correlation between two tests with identical distributions of difficulty.…

Integrating forest growth and harvesting cost models to improve forest management planning

Treesearch

J.E. Baumgras; C.B. LeDoux

1991-01-01

Two methods of estimating harvesting revenue--reported stumpage prices - and delivered prices minus estimated harvesting and haul costs were compared by estimating entry cash flows and rotation net present value for three simulated even-aged forest management options that included 1 to 3 thinnings over a 90 year rotation. Revenue estimates derived from stumpage prices...

California Drought Recovery Assessment Using GRACE Satellite Gravimetry Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, C. A.; Aghakouchak, A.; Madadgar, S.; Tourian, M. J.

2015-12-01

California has been experiencing its most extreme drought in recent history due to a combination of record high temperatures and exceptionally low precipitation. An estimate for when the drought can be expected to end is needed for risk mitigation and water management. A crucial component of drought recovery assessments is the estimation of terrestrial water storage (TWS) deficit. Previous studies on drought recovery have been limited to surface water hydrology (precipitation and/or runoff) for estimating changes in TWS, neglecting the contribution of groundwater deficits to the recovery time of the system. Groundwater requires more time to recover than surface water storage; therefore, the inclusion of groundwater storage in drought recovery assessments is essential for understanding the long-term vulnerability of a region. Here we assess the probability, for varying timescales, of California's current TWS deficit returning to its long-term historical mean. Our method consists of deriving the region's fluctuations in TWS from changes in the gravity field observed by NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites. We estimate the probability that meteorological inputs, precipitation minus evaporation and runoff, over different timespans will balance the current GRACE-derived TWS deficit (e.g. in 3, 6, 12 months). This method improves upon previous techniques as the GRACE-derived water deficit comprises all hydrologic sources, including surface water, groundwater, and snow cover. With this empirical probability assessment we expect to improve current estimates of California's drought recovery time, thereby improving risk mitigation.

Estimation of root zone storage capacity at the catchment scale using improved Mass Curve Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jie; Xu, Zongxue; Singh, Vijay P.

2016-09-01

The root zone storage capacity (Sr) greatly influences runoff generation, soil water movement, and vegetation growth and is hence an important variable for ecological and hydrological modelling. However, due to the great heterogeneity in soil texture and structure, there seems to be no effective approach to monitor or estimate Sr at the catchment scale presently. To fill the gap, in this study the Mass Curve Technique (MCT) was improved by incorporating a snowmelt module for the estimation of Sr at the catchment scale in different climatic regions. The "range of perturbation" method was also used to generate different scenarios for determining the sensitivity of the improved MCT-derived Sr to its influencing factors after the evaluation of plausibility of Sr derived from the improved MCT. Results can be showed as: (i) Sr estimates of different catchments varied greatly from ∼10 mm to ∼200 mm with the changes of climatic conditions and underlying surface characteristics. (ii) The improved MCT is a simple but powerful tool for the Sr estimation in different climatic regions of China, and incorporation of more catchments into Sr comparisons can further improve our knowledge on the variability of Sr. (iii) Variation of Sr values is an integrated consequence of variations in rainfall, snowmelt water and evapotranspiration. Sr values are most sensitive to variations in evapotranspiration of ecosystems. Besides, Sr values with a longer return period are more stable than those with a shorter return period when affected by fluctuations in its influencing factors.

Time-resolved speckle effects on the estimation of laser-pulse arrival times

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tsai, B.-M.; Gardner, C. S.

1985-01-01

A maximum-likelihood (ML) estimator of the pulse arrival in laser ranging and altimetry is derived for the case of a pulse distorted by shot noise and time-resolved speckle. The performance of the estimator is evaluated for pulse reflections from flat diffuse targets and compared with the performance of a suboptimal centroid estimator and a suboptimal Bar-David ML estimator derived under the assumption of no speckle. In the large-signal limit the accuracy of the estimator was found to improve as the width of the receiver observational interval increases. The timing performance of the estimator is expected to be highly sensitive to background noise when the received pulse energy is high and the receiver observational interval is large. Finally, in the speckle-limited regime the ML estimator performs considerably better than the suboptimal estimators.

Magnetometer-only attitude and angular velocity filtering estimation for attitude changing spacecraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Hongliang; Xu, Shijie

2014-09-01

This paper presents an improved real-time sequential filter (IRTSF) for magnetometer-only attitude and angular velocity estimation of spacecraft during its attitude changing (including fast and large angular attitude maneuver, rapidly spinning or uncontrolled tumble). In this new magnetometer-only attitude determination technique, both attitude dynamics equation and first time derivative of measured magnetic field vector are directly leaded into filtering equations based on the traditional single vector attitude determination method of gyroless and real-time sequential filter (RTSF) of magnetometer-only attitude estimation. The process noise model of IRTSF includes attitude kinematics and dynamics equations, and its measurement model consists of magnetic field vector and its first time derivative. The observability of IRTSF for small or large angular velocity changing spacecraft is evaluated by an improved Lie-Differentiation, and the degrees of observability of IRTSF for different initial estimation errors are analyzed by the condition number and a solved covariance matrix. Numerical simulation results indicate that: (1) the attitude and angular velocity of spacecraft can be estimated with sufficient accuracy using IRTSF from magnetometer-only data; (2) compared with that of RTSF, the estimation accuracies and observability degrees of attitude and angular velocity using IRTSF from magnetometer-only data are both improved; and (3) universality: the IRTSF of magnetometer-only attitude and angular velocity estimation is observable for any different initial state estimation error vector.

Evaluation of small area crop estimation techniques using LANDSAT- and ground-derived data. [South Dakota

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amis, M. L.; Martin, M. V.; Mcguire, W. G.; Shen, S. S. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

Studies completed in fiscal year 1981 in support of the clustering/classification and preprocessing activities of the Domestic Crops and Land Cover project. The theme throughout the study was the improvement of subanalysis district (usually county level) crop hectarage estimates, as reflected in the following three objectives: (1) to evaluate the current U.S. Department of Agriculture Statistical Reporting Service regression approach to crop area estimation as applied to the problem of obtaining subanalysis district estimates; (2) to develop and test alternative approaches to subanalysis district estimation; and (3) to develop and test preprocessing techniques for use in improving subanalysis district estimates.

Improvements to photometry. Part 1: Better estimation of derivatives in extinction and transformation equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Young, Andrew T.

1988-01-01

Atmospheric extinction in wideband photometry is examined both analytically and through numerical simulations. If the derivatives that appear in the Stromgren-King theory are estimated carefully, it appears that wideband measurements can be transformed to outside the atmosphere with errors no greater than a millimagnitude. A numerical analysis approach is used to estimate derivatives of both the stellar and atmospheric extinction spectra, avoiding previous assumptions that the extinction follows a power law. However, it is essential to satify the requirements of the sampling theorem to keep aliasing errors small. Typically, this means that band separations cannot exceed half of the full width at half-peak response. Further work is needed to examine higher order effects, which may well be significant.

A-BOMB SURVIVOR SITE-SPECIFIC RADIOGENIC CANCER RISKS ESTIMATES

EPA Science Inventory

A draft manuscript is being prepared that describes ways to improve estimates of risk from radiation that have been derived from A-bomb survivors. The work has been published in the journal Radiation Research volume 169, pages 87-98.

Improved gravity anomaly fields from retracked multimission satellite radar altimetry observations over the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khaki, M.; Forootan, E.; Sharifi, M. A.; Awange, J.; Kuhn, M.

2015-09-01

Satellite radar altimetry observations are used to derive short wavelength gravity anomaly fields over the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea, where in situ and ship-borne gravity measurements have limited spatial coverage. In this study the retracking algorithm `Extrema Retracking' (ExtR) was employed to improve sea surface height (SSH) measurements that are highly biased in the study regions due to land contaminations in the footprints of the satellite altimetry observations. ExtR was applied to the waveforms sampled by the five satellite radar altimetry missions: TOPEX/POSEIDON, JASON-1, JASON-2, GFO and ERS-1. Along-track slopes have been estimated from the improved SSH measurements and used in an iterative process to estimate deflections of the vertical, and subsequently, the desired gravity anomalies. The main steps of the gravity anomaly computations involve estimating improved SSH using the ExtR technique, computing deflections of the vertical from interpolated SSHs on a regular grid using a biharmonic spline interpolation and finally estimating gridded gravity anomalies. A remove-compute-restore algorithm, based on the fast Fourier transform, has been applied to convert deflections of the vertical into gravity anomalies. Finally, spline interpolation has been used to estimate regular gravity anomaly grids over the two study regions. Results were evaluated by comparing the estimated altimetry-derived gravity anomalies (with and without implementing the ExtR algorithm) with ship-borne free air gravity anomaly observations, and free air gravity anomalies from the Earth Gravitational Model 2008 (EGM2008). The comparison indicates a range of 3-5 mGal in the residuals, which were computed by taking the differences between the retracked altimetry-derived gravity anomaly and the ship-borne data. The comparison of retracked data with ship-borne data indicates a range in the root-mean-square-error (RMSE) between approximately 1.8 and 4.4 mGal and a bias between 0.4062 and 2.1413 mGal over different areas. Also a maximum RMSE of 4.4069 mGal, with a mean value of 0.7615 mGal was obtained in the residuals. An average improvement of 5.2746 mGal in the RMSE of the altimetry-derived gravity anomalies corresponding to 89.9 per cent was obtained after applying the ExtR post-processing.

Robust Modal Filtering and Control of the X-56A Model with Simulated Fiber Optic Sensor Failures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suh, Peter M.; Chin, Alexander W.; Marvis, Dimitri N.

2014-01-01

The X-56A aircraft is a remotely-piloted aircraft with flutter modes intentionally designed into the flight envelope. The X-56A program must demonstrate flight control while suppressing all unstable modes. A previous X-56A model study demonstrated a distributed-sensing-based active shape and active flutter suppression controller. The controller relies on an estimator which is sensitive to bias. This estimator is improved herein, and a real-time robust estimator is derived and demonstrated on 1530 fiber optic sensors. It is shown in simulation that the estimator can simultaneously reject 230 worst-case fiber optic sensor failures automatically. These sensor failures include locations with high leverage (or importance). To reduce the impact of leverage outliers, concentration based on a Mahalanobis trim criterion is introduced. A redescending M-estimator with Tukey bisquare weights is used to improve location and dispersion estimates within each concentration step in the presence of asymmetry (or leverage). A dynamic simulation is used to compare the concentrated robust estimator to a state-of-the-art real-time robust multivariate estimator. The estimators support a previously-derived mu-optimal shape controller. It is found that during the failure scenario, the concentrated modal estimator keeps the system stable.

Robust Modal Filtering and Control of the X-56A Model with Simulated Fiber Optic Sensor Failures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suh, Peter M.; Chin, Alexander W.; Mavris, Dimitri N.

2016-01-01

The X-56A aircraft is a remotely-piloted aircraft with flutter modes intentionally designed into the flight envelope. The X-56A program must demonstrate flight control while suppressing all unstable modes. A previous X-56A model study demonstrated a distributed-sensing-based active shape and active flutter suppression controller. The controller relies on an estimator which is sensitive to bias. This estimator is improved herein, and a real-time robust estimator is derived and demonstrated on 1530 fiber optic sensors. It is shown in simulation that the estimator can simultaneously reject 230 worst-case fiber optic sensor failures automatically. These sensor failures include locations with high leverage (or importance). To reduce the impact of leverage outliers, concentration based on a Mahalanobis trim criterion is introduced. A redescending M-estimator with Tukey bisquare weights is used to improve location and dispersion estimates within each concentration step in the presence of asymmetry (or leverage). A dynamic simulation is used to compare the concentrated robust estimator to a state-of-the-art real-time robust multivariate estimator. The estimators support a previously-derived mu-optimal shape controller. It is found that during the failure scenario, the concentrated modal estimator keeps the system stable.

Theory and practical application of out of sequence measurements with results for multi-static tracking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iny, David

2007-09-01

This paper addresses the out-of-sequence measurement (OOSM) problem associated with multiple platform tracking systems. The problem arises due to different transmission delays in communication of detection reports across platforms. Much of the literature focuses on the improvement to the state estimate by incorporating the OOSM. As the time lag increases, there is diminishing improvement to the state estimate. However, this paper shows that optimal processing of OOSMs may still be beneficial by improving data association as part of a multi-target tracker. This paper derives exact multi-lag algorithms with the property that the standard log likelihood track scoring is independent of the order in which the measurements are processed. The orthogonality principle is applied to generalize the method of Bar- Shalom in deriving the exact A1 algorithm for 1-lag estimation. Theory is also developed for optimal filtering of time averaged measurements and measurements correlated through periodic updates of a target aim-point. An alternative derivation of the multi-lag algorithms is also achieved using an efficient variant of the augmented state Kalman filter (AS-KF). This results in practical and reasonably efficient multi-lag algorithms. Results are compared to a well known ad hoc algorithm for incorporating OOSMs. Finally, the paper presents some simulated multi-target multi-static scenarios where there is a benefit to processing the data out of sequence in order to improve pruning efficiency.

Decentralized state estimation for a large-scale spatially interconnected system.

PubMed

Liu, Huabo; Yu, Haisheng

2018-03-01

A decentralized state estimator is derived for the spatially interconnected systems composed of many subsystems with arbitrary connection relations. An optimization problem on the basis of linear matrix inequality (LMI) is constructed for the computations of improved subsystem parameter matrices. Several computationally effective approaches are derived which efficiently utilize the block-diagonal characteristic of system parameter matrices and the sparseness of subsystem connection matrix. Moreover, this decentralized state estimator is proved to converge to a stable system and obtain a bounded covariance matrix of estimation errors under certain conditions. Numerical simulations show that the obtained decentralized state estimator is attractive in the synthesis of a large-scale networked system. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improving spatio-temporal model estimation of satellite-derived PM2.5 concentrations: Implications for public health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barik, M. G.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Crosson, W. L.; Yang, C. A.; Coffield, S. R.

2017-12-01

Satellite-derived environmental data, available in a range of spatio-temporal scales, are contributing to the growing use of health impact assessments of air pollution in the public health sector. Models developed using correlation of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) with ground measurements of fine particulate matter less than 2.5 microns (PM2.5) are widely applied to measure PM2.5 spatial and temporal variability. In the public health sector, associations of PM2.5 with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases are often investigated to quantify air quality impacts on these health concerns. In order to improve predictability of PM2.5 estimation using correlation models, we have included meteorological variables, higher-resolution AOD products and instantaneous PM2.5 observations into statistical estimation models. Our results showed that incorporation of high-resolution (1-km) Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC)-generated MODIS AOD, meteorological variables and instantaneous PM2.5 observations improved model performance in various parts of California (CA), USA, where single variable AOD-based models showed relatively weak performance. In this study, we further asked whether these improved models actually would be more successful for exploring associations of public health outcomes with estimated PM2.5. To answer this question, we geospatially investigated model-estimated PM2.5's relationship with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases such as asthma, high blood pressure, coronary heart disease, heart attack and stroke in CA using health data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)'s Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). PM2.5 estimation from these improved models have the potential to improve our understanding of associations between public health concerns and air quality.

Estimating global per-capita carbon emissions with VIIRS nighttime lights satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jasmin, T.; Desai, A. R.; Pierce, R. B.

2015-12-01

With the launch of the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite in November 2011, we now have nighttime lights remote sensing capability vastly improved over the predecessor Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP), owing to improved spatial and radiometric resolution provided by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Day Night Band (DNB) along with technology improvements in data transfer, processing, and storage. This development opens doors for improving novel scientific applications utilizing remotely sensed low-level visible light, for purposes ranging from estimating population to inferring factors relating to economic development. For example, the success of future international agreements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will be dependent on mechanisms to monitor remotely for compliance. Here, we discuss implementation and evaluation of the VRCE system (VIIRS Remote Carbon Estimates), developed at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, which provides monthly independent, unbiased estimates of per-capita carbon emissions. Cloud-free global composites of Earth nocturnal lighting are generated from VIIRS DNB at full spatial resolution (750 meter). A population equation is derived from a linear regression of DNB radiance sums at state level to U.S. Census data. CO2 emissions are derived from a linear regression of VIIRS DNB radiance sums to U.S. Department of Energy emission estimates. Regional coefficients for factors such as percentage of energy use from renewable sources are factored in, and together these equations are used to generate per-capita CO2 emission estimates at the country level.

Emissions databases for polycyclic aromatic compounds in the Canadian Athabasca oil sands region - development using current knowledge and evaluation with passive sampling and air dispersion modelling data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Xin; Cheng, Irene; Yang, Fuquan; Horb, Erin; Zhang, Leiming; Harner, Tom

2018-03-01

Two speciated and spatially resolved emissions databases for polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs) in the Athabasca oil sands region (AOSR) were developed. The first database was derived from volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions data provided by the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA) and the second database was derived from additional data collected within the Joint Canada-Alberta Oil Sands Monitoring (JOSM) program. CALPUFF modelling results for atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), alkylated PAHs, and dibenzothiophenes (DBTs), obtained using each of the emissions databases, are presented and compared with measurements from a passive air monitoring network. The JOSM-derived emissions resulted in better model-measurement agreement in the total PAH concentrations and for most PAH species concentrations compared to results using CEMA-derived emissions. At local sites near oil sands mines, the percent error of the model compared to observations decreased from 30 % using the CEMA-derived emissions to 17 % using the JOSM-derived emissions. The improvement at local sites was likely attributed to the inclusion of updated tailings pond emissions estimated from JOSM activities. In either the CEMA-derived or JOSM-derived emissions scenario, the model underestimated PAH concentrations by a factor of 3 at remote locations. Potential reasons for the disagreement include forest fire emissions, re-emissions of previously deposited PAHs, and long-range transport not considered in the model. Alkylated PAH and DBT concentrations were also significantly underestimated. The CALPUFF model is expected to predict higher concentrations because of the limited chemistry and deposition modelling. Thus the model underestimation of PACs is likely due to gaps in the emissions database for these compounds and uncertainties in the methodology for estimating the emissions. Future work is required that focuses on improving the PAC emissions estimation and speciation methodologies and reducing the uncertainties in VOC emissions which are subsequently used in PAC emissions estimation.

Network Reconstruction From High-Dimensional Ordinary Differential Equations.

PubMed

Chen, Shizhe; Shojaie, Ali; Witten, Daniela M

2017-01-01

We consider the task of learning a dynamical system from high-dimensional time-course data. For instance, we might wish to estimate a gene regulatory network from gene expression data measured at discrete time points. We model the dynamical system nonparametrically as a system of additive ordinary differential equations. Most existing methods for parameter estimation in ordinary differential equations estimate the derivatives from noisy observations. This is known to be challenging and inefficient. We propose a novel approach that does not involve derivative estimation. We show that the proposed method can consistently recover the true network structure even in high dimensions, and we demonstrate empirical improvement over competing approaches. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Spatial-temporal models for improved county-level annual estimates

Treesearch

Francis Roesch

2009-01-01

The consumers of data derived from extensive forest inventories often seek annual estimates at a finer spatial scale than that which the inventory was designed to provide. This paper discusses a few model-based and model-assisted estimators to consider for county level attributes that can be applied when the sample would otherwise be inadequate for producing low-...

Maximum mutual information estimation of a simplified hidden MRF for offline handwritten Chinese character recognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, Yan; Reichenbach, Stephen E.

1999-01-01

Understanding of hand-written Chinese characters is at such a primitive stage that models include some assumptions about hand-written Chinese characters that are simply false. So Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) may not be an optimal method for hand-written Chinese characters recognition. This concern motivates the research effort to consider alternative criteria. Maximum Mutual Information Estimation (MMIE) is an alternative method for parameter estimation that does not derive its rationale from presumed model correctness, but instead examines the pattern-modeling problem in automatic recognition system from an information- theoretic point of view. The objective of MMIE is to find a set of parameters in such that the resultant model allows the system to derive from the observed data as much information as possible about the class. We consider MMIE for recognition of hand-written Chinese characters using on a simplified hidden Markov Random Field. MMIE provides improved performance improvement over MLE in this application.

Estimation of post-test probabilities by residents: Bayesian reasoning versus heuristics?

PubMed

Hall, Stacey; Phang, Sen Han; Schaefer, Jeffrey P; Ghali, William; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2014-08-01

Although the process of diagnosing invariably begins with a heuristic, we encourage our learners to support their diagnoses by analytical cognitive processes, such as Bayesian reasoning, in an attempt to mitigate the effects of heuristics on diagnosing. There are, however, limited data on the use ± impact of Bayesian reasoning on the accuracy of disease probability estimates. In this study our objective was to explore whether Internal Medicine residents use a Bayesian process to estimate disease probabilities by comparing their disease probability estimates to literature-derived Bayesian post-test probabilities. We gave 35 Internal Medicine residents four clinical vignettes in the form of a referral letter and asked them to estimate the post-test probability of the target condition in each case. We then compared these to literature-derived probabilities. For each vignette the estimated probability was significantly different from the literature-derived probability. For the two cases with low literature-derived probability our participants significantly overestimated the probability of these target conditions being the correct diagnosis, whereas for the two cases with high literature-derived probability the estimated probability was significantly lower than the calculated value. Our results suggest that residents generate inaccurate post-test probability estimates. Possible explanations for this include ineffective application of Bayesian reasoning, attribute substitution whereby a complex cognitive task is replaced by an easier one (e.g., a heuristic), or systematic rater bias, such as central tendency bias. Further studies are needed to identify the reasons for inaccuracy of disease probability estimates and to explore ways of improving accuracy.

Incorporation of MRI-AIF Information For Improved Kinetic Modelling of Dynamic PET Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sari, Hasan; Erlandsson, Kjell; Thielemans, Kris; Atkinson, David; Ourselin, Sebastien; Arridge, Simon; Hutton, Brian F.

2015-06-01

In the analysis of dynamic PET data, compartmental kinetic analysis methods require an accurate knowledge of the arterial input function (AIF). Although arterial blood sampling is the gold standard of the methods used to measure the AIF, it is usually not preferred as it is an invasive method. An alternative method is the simultaneous estimation method (SIME), where physiological parameters and the AIF are estimated together, using information from different anatomical regions. Due to the large number of parameters to estimate in its optimisation, SIME is a computationally complex method and may sometimes fail to give accurate estimates. In this work, we try to improve SIME by utilising an input function derived from a simultaneously obtained DSC-MRI scan. With the assumption that the true value of one of the six parameter PET-AIF model can be derived from an MRI-AIF, the method is tested using simulated data. The results indicate that SIME can yield more robust results when the MRI information is included with a significant reduction in absolute bias of Ki estimates.

Simultaneous quaternion estimation (QUEST) and bias determination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Markley, F. Landis

1989-01-01

Tests of a new method for the simultaneous estimation of spacecraft attitude and sensor biases, based on a quaternion estimation algorithm minimizing Wahba's loss function are presented. The new method is compared with a conventional batch least-squares differential correction algorithm. The estimates are based on data from strapdown gyros and star trackers, simulated with varying levels of Gaussian noise for both inertially-fixed and Earth-pointing reference attitudes. Both algorithms solve for the spacecraft attitude and the gyro drift rate biases. They converge to the same estimates at the same rate for inertially-fixed attitude, but the new algorithm converges more slowly than the differential correction for Earth-pointing attitude. The slower convergence of the new method for non-zero attitude rates is believed to be due to the use of an inadequate approximation for a partial derivative matrix. The new method requires about twice the computational effort of the differential correction. Improving the approximation for the partial derivative matrix in the new method is expected to improve its convergence at the cost of increased computational effort.

Value of a dual-polarized gap-filling radar in support of southern California post-fire debris-flow warnings

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jorgensen, David P.; Hanshaw, Maiana N.; Schmidt, Kevin M.; Laber, Jayme L; Staley, Dennis M.; Kean, Jason W.; Restrepo, Pedro J.

2011-01-01

A portable truck-mounted C-band Doppler weather radar was deployed to observe rainfall over the Station Fire burn area near Los Angeles, California, during the winter of 2009/10 to assist with debris-flow warning decisions. The deployments were a component of a joint NOAA–U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research effort to improve definition of the rainfall conditions that trigger debris flows from steep topography within recent wildfire burn areas. A procedure was implemented to blend various dual-polarized estimators of precipitation (for radar observations taken below the freezing level) using threshold values for differential reflectivity and specific differential phase shift that improves the accuracy of the rainfall estimates over a specific burn area sited with terrestrial tipping-bucket rain gauges. The portable radar outperformed local Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) National Weather Service network radars in detecting rainfall capable of initiating post-fire runoff-generated debris flows. The network radars underestimated hourly precipitation totals by about 50%. Consistent with intensity–duration threshold curves determined from past debris-flow events in burned areas in Southern California, the portable radar-derived rainfall rates exceeded the empirical thresholds over a wider range of storm durations with a higher spatial resolution than local National Weather Service operational radars. Moreover, the truck-mounted C-band radar dual-polarimetric-derived estimates of rainfall intensity provided a better guide to the expected severity of debris-flow events, based on criteria derived from previous events using rain gauge data, than traditional radar-derived rainfall approaches using reflectivity–rainfall relationships for either the portable or operational network WSR-88D radars. Part of the reason for the improvement was due to siting the radar closer to the burn zone than the WSR-88Ds, but use of the dual-polarimetric variables improved the rainfall estimation by ~12% over the use of traditional Z–R relationships.

A robust approach for ECG-based analysis of cardiopulmonary coupling.

PubMed

Zheng, Jiewen; Wang, Weidong; Zhang, Zhengbo; Wu, Dalei; Wu, Hao; Peng, Chung-Kang

2016-07-01

Deriving respiratory signal from a surface electrocardiogram (ECG) measurement has advantage of simultaneously monitoring of cardiac and respiratory activities. ECG-based cardiopulmonary coupling (CPC) analysis estimated by heart period variability and ECG-derived respiration (EDR) shows promising applications in medical field. The aim of this paper is to provide a quantitative analysis of the ECG-based CPC, and further improve its performance. Two conventional strategies were tested to obtain EDR signal: R-S wave amplitude and area of the QRS complex. An adaptive filter was utilized to extract the common component of inter-beat interval (RRI) and EDR, generating enhanced versions of EDR signal. CPC is assessed through probing the nonlinear phase interactions between RRI series and respiratory signal. Respiratory oscillations presented in both RRI series and respiratory signals were extracted by ensemble empirical mode decomposition for coupling analysis via phase synchronization index. The results demonstrated that CPC estimated from conventional EDR series exhibits constant and proportional biases, while that estimated from enhanced EDR series is more reliable. Adaptive filtering can improve the accuracy of the ECG-based CPC estimation significantly and achieve robust CPC analysis. The improved ECG-based CPC estimation may provide additional prognostic information for both sleep medicine and autonomic function analysis. Copyright © 2016 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Timely disclosure of progress in long-term cancer survival: the boomerang method substantially improved estimates in a comparative study.

PubMed

Brenner, Hermann; Jansen, Lina

2016-02-01

Monitoring cancer survival is a key task of cancer registries, but timely disclosure of progress in long-term survival remains a challenge. We introduce and evaluate a novel method, denoted "boomerang method," for deriving more up-to-date estimates of long-term survival. We applied three established methods (cohort, complete, and period analysis) and the boomerang method to derive up-to-date 10-year relative survival of patients diagnosed with common solid cancers and hematological malignancies in the United States. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results 9 database, we compared the most up-to-date age-specific estimates that might have been obtained with the database including patients diagnosed up to 2001 with 10-year survival later observed for patients diagnosed in 1997-2001. For cancers with little or no increase in survival over time, the various estimates of 10-year relative survival potentially available by the end of 2001 were generally rather similar. For malignancies with strongly increasing survival over time, including breast and prostate cancer and all hematological malignancies, the boomerang method provided estimates that were closest to later observed 10-year relative survival in 23 of the 34 groups assessed. The boomerang method can substantially improve up-to-dateness of long-term cancer survival estimates in times of ongoing improvement in prognosis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimation de la superficie du couvert nival a partir d'une combinaison des donnees de teledetection MODIS et AMSR-E dans un contexte de prevision des crues printanieres au Quebec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergeron, Jean

Snow cover estimation is a principal source of error for spring streamflow simulations in Québec, Canada. Optical and near infrared remote sensing can improve snow cover area (SCA) estimation due to high spatial resolution but is limited by cloud cover and incoming solar radiation. Passive microwave remote sensing is complementary by its near-transparence to cloud cover and independence to incoming solar radiation, but is limited by its coarse spatial resolution. The study aims to create an improved SCA product from blended passive microwave (AMSR-E daily L3 Brightness Temperature) and optical (MODIS Terra and Aqua daily snow cover L3) remote sensing data in order to improve estimation of river streamflow caused by snowmelt with Québec's operational MOHYSE hydrological model through direct-insertion of the blended SCA product in a coupled snowmelt module (SPH-AV). SCA estimated from AMSR-E data is first compared with SCA estimated with MODIS, as well as with in situ snow depth measurements. Results show good agreement (+95%) between AMSR-E-derived and MODIS-derived SCA products in spring but comparisons with Environment Canada ground stations and SCA derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data show lesser agreements (83 % and 74% respectively). Results also show that AMSR-E generally underestimates SCA. Assimilating the blended snow product in SPH-AV coupled with MOHYSE yields significant improvement of simulated streamflow for the aux Écorces et au Saumon rivers overall when compared with simulations with no update during thaw events, These improvements are similar to results driven by biweekly ground data. Assimilation of remotely-sensed passive microwave data was also found to have little positive impact on springflood forecast due to the difficulty in differentiating melting snow from snow-free surfaces. Considering the direct-insertion and Newtonian nudging assimilation methods, the study also shows the latter method to be superior to the former, notably when assimilating noisy data. Keywords: Snow cover, spring streamflow, MODIS, AMSR-E, hydrological model.

Estimation of design floods in ungauged catchments using a regional index flood method. A case study of Lake Victoria Basin in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nobert, Joel; Mugo, Margaret; Gadain, Hussein

Reliable estimation of flood magnitudes corresponding to required return periods, vital for structural design purposes, is impacted by lack of hydrological data in the study area of Lake Victoria Basin in Kenya. Use of regional information, derived from data at gauged sites and regionalized for use at any location within a homogenous region, would improve the reliability of the design flood estimation. Therefore, the regional index flood method has been applied. Based on data from 14 gauged sites, a delineation of the basin into two homogenous regions was achieved using elevation variation (90-m DEM), spatial annual rainfall pattern and Principal Component Analysis of seasonal rainfall patterns (from 94 rainfall stations). At site annual maximum series were modelled using the Log normal (LN) (3P), Log Logistic Distribution (LLG), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Log Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distributions. The parameters of the distributions were estimated using the method of probability weighted moments. Goodness of fit tests were applied and the GEV was identified as the most appropriate model for each site. Based on the GEV model, flood quantiles were estimated and regional frequency curves derived from the averaged at site growth curves. Using the least squares regression method, relationships were developed between the index flood, which is defined as the Mean Annual Flood (MAF) and catchment characteristics. The relationships indicated area, mean annual rainfall and altitude were the three significant variables that greatly influence the index flood. Thereafter, estimates of flood magnitudes in ungauged catchments within a homogenous region were estimated from the derived equations for index flood and quantiles from the regional curves. These estimates will improve flood risk estimation and to support water management and engineering decisions and actions.

Status report on the Aeronautical Research Institute of Sweden version of the missile aerodynamics program LARV, for calculation of static aerodynamic properties and longitudinal aerodynamic damping derivatives. Part 1: Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weibust, E.

Improvements to a missile aerodynamics program which enable it to (a) calculate aerodynamic coefficients as input for a flight mechanics model, (b) check manufacturers' data or estimate performance from photographs, (c) reduce wind tunnel testing, and (d) aid optimization studies, are discussed. Slender body theory is used for longitudinal damping derivatives prediction. Program predictions were compared to known values. Greater accuracy is required in the estimation of drag due to excrescences on actual missile configurations, the influence of a burning motor, and nonlinear effects in the stall region. Prediction of pressure centers on wings and on bodies in presence of wings must be improved.

Allometric scaling theory applied to FIA biomass estimation

Treesearch

David C. Chojnacky

2002-01-01

Tree biomass estimates in the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database are derived from numerous methodologies whose abundance and complexity raise questions about consistent results throughout the U.S. A new model based on allometric scaling theory ("WBE") offers simplified methodology and a theoretically sound basis for improving the reliability and...

An improved nonparametric lower bound of species richness via a modified good-turing frequency formula.

PubMed

Chiu, Chun-Huo; Wang, Yi-Ting; Walther, Bruno A; Chao, Anne

2014-09-01

It is difficult to accurately estimate species richness if there are many almost undetectable species in a hyper-diverse community. Practically, an accurate lower bound for species richness is preferable to an inaccurate point estimator. The traditional nonparametric lower bound developed by Chao (1984, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 11, 265-270) for individual-based abundance data uses only the information on the rarest species (the numbers of singletons and doubletons) to estimate the number of undetected species in samples. Applying a modified Good-Turing frequency formula, we derive an approximate formula for the first-order bias of this traditional lower bound. The approximate bias is estimated by using additional information (namely, the numbers of tripletons and quadrupletons). This approximate bias can be corrected, and an improved lower bound is thus obtained. The proposed lower bound is nonparametric in the sense that it is universally valid for any species abundance distribution. A similar type of improved lower bound can be derived for incidence data. We test our proposed lower bounds on simulated data sets generated from various species abundance models. Simulation results show that the proposed lower bounds always reduce bias over the traditional lower bounds and improve accuracy (as measured by mean squared error) when the heterogeneity of species abundances is relatively high. We also apply the proposed new lower bounds to real data for illustration and for comparisons with previously developed estimators. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

Reducing uncertainty and increasing consistency: technical improvements to forest carbon pool estimation using the national forest inventory of the US

Treesearch

C.W. Woodall; G.M. Domke; J. Coulston; M.B. Russell; J.A. Smith; C.H. Perry; S.M. Ogle; S. Healey; A. Gray

2015-01-01

The FIA program does not directly measure forest C stocks. Instead, a combination of empirically derived C estimates (e.g., standing live and dead trees) and models (e.g., understory C stocks related to stand age and forest type) are used to estimate forest C stocks. A series of recent refinements in FIA estimation procedures have sought to reduce the uncertainty...

Improving size estimates of open animal populations by incorporating information on age

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manly, Bryan F.J.; McDonald, Trent L.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Regehr, Eric V.

2003-01-01

Around the world, a great deal of effort is expended each year to estimate the sizes of wild animal populations. Unfortunately, population size has proven to be one of the most intractable parameters to estimate. The capture-recapture estimation models most commonly used (of the Jolly-Seber type) are complicated and require numerous, sometimes questionable, assumptions. The derived estimates usually have large variances and lack consistency over time. In capture–recapture studies of long-lived animals, the ages of captured animals can often be determined with great accuracy and relative ease. We show how to incorporate age information into size estimates for open populations, where the size changes through births, deaths, immigration, and emigration. The proposed method allows more precise estimates of population size than the usual models, and it can provide these estimates from two sample occasions rather than the three usually required. Moreover, this method does not require specialized programs for capture-recapture data; researchers can derive their estimates using the logistic regression module in any standard statistical package.

Estimating thermal performance curves from repeated field observations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Childress, Evan; Letcher, Benjamin H.

2017-01-01

Estimating thermal performance of organisms is critical for understanding population distributions and dynamics and predicting responses to climate change. Typically, performance curves are estimated using laboratory studies to isolate temperature effects, but other abiotic and biotic factors influence temperature-performance relationships in nature reducing these models' predictive ability. We present a model for estimating thermal performance curves from repeated field observations that includes environmental and individual variation. We fit the model in a Bayesian framework using MCMC sampling, which allowed for estimation of unobserved latent growth while propagating uncertainty. Fitting the model to simulated data varying in sampling design and parameter values demonstrated that the parameter estimates were accurate, precise, and unbiased. Fitting the model to individual growth data from wild trout revealed high out-of-sample predictive ability relative to laboratory-derived models, which produced more biased predictions for field performance. The field-based estimates of thermal maxima were lower than those based on laboratory studies. Under warming temperature scenarios, field-derived performance models predicted stronger declines in body size than laboratory-derived models, suggesting that laboratory-based models may underestimate climate change effects. The presented model estimates true, realized field performance, avoiding assumptions required for applying laboratory-based models to field performance, which should improve estimates of performance under climate change and advance thermal ecology.

Identifying grain-size dependent errors on global forest area estimates and carbon studies

Treesearch

Daolan Zheng; Linda S. Heath; Mark J. Ducey

2008-01-01

Satellite-derived coarse-resolution data are typically used for conducting global analyses. But the forest areas estimated from coarse-resolution maps (e.g., 1 km) inevitably differ from a corresponding fine-resolution map (such as a 30-m map) that would be closer to ground truth. A better understanding of changes in grain size on area estimation will improve our...

Using CO2:CO Correlations to Improve Inverse Analyses of Carbon Fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palmer, Paul I.; Suntharalingam, Parvadha; Jones, Dylan B. A.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Streets, David G.; Fu, Qingyan; Vay, Stephanie A.; Sachse, Glen W.

2006-01-01

Observed correlations between atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and CO represent potentially powerful information for improving CO2 surface flux estimates through coupled CO2-CO inverse analyses. We explore the value of these correlations in improving estimates of regional CO2 fluxes in east Asia by using aircraft observations of CO2 and CO from the TRACE-P campaign over the NW Pacific in March 2001. Our inverse model uses regional CO2 and CO surface fluxes as the state vector, separating biospheric and combustion contributions to CO2. CO2-CO error correlation coefficients are included in the inversion as off-diagonal entries in the a priori and observation error covariance matrices. We derive error correlations in a priori combustion source estimates of CO2 and CO by propagating error estimates of fuel consumption rates and emission factors. However, we find that these correlations are weak because CO source uncertainties are mostly determined by emission factors. Observed correlations between atmospheric CO2 and CO concentrations imply corresponding error correlations in the chemical transport model used as the forward model for the inversion. These error correlations in excess of 0.7, as derived from the TRACE-P data, enable a coupled CO2-CO inversion to achieve significant improvement over a CO2-only inversion for quantifying regional fluxes of CO2.

The Use of Neural Networks in Identifying Error Sources in Satellite-Derived Tropical SST Estimates

PubMed Central

Lee, Yung-Hsiang; Ho, Chung-Ru; Su, Feng-Chun; Kuo, Nan-Jung; Cheng, Yu-Hsin

2011-01-01

An neural network model of data mining is used to identify error sources in satellite-derived tropical sea surface temperature (SST) estimates from thermal infrared sensors onboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES). By using the Back Propagation Network (BPN) algorithm, it is found that air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed variation are the major factors causing the errors of GOES SST products in the tropical Pacific. The accuracy of SST estimates is also improved by the model. The root mean square error (RMSE) for the daily SST estimate is reduced from 0.58 K to 0.38 K and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is 1.03%. For the hourly mean SST estimate, its RMSE is also reduced from 0.66 K to 0.44 K and the MAPE is 1.3%. PMID:22164030

Three-dimensional habitat structure and landscape genetics: a step forward in estimating functional connectivity.

PubMed

Milanesi, P; Holderegger, R; Bollmann, K; Gugerli, F; Zellweger, F

2017-02-01

Estimating connectivity among fragmented habitat patches is crucial for evaluating the functionality of ecological networks. However, current estimates of landscape resistance to animal movement and dispersal lack landscape-level data on local habitat structure. Here, we used a landscape genetics approach to show that high-fidelity habitat structure maps derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data critically improve functional connectivity estimates compared to conventional land cover data. We related pairwise genetic distances of 128 Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) genotypes to least-cost path distances at multiple scales derived from land cover data. Resulting β values of linear mixed effects models ranged from 0.372 to 0.495, while those derived from LiDAR ranged from 0.558 to 0.758. The identification and conservation of functional ecological networks suffering from habitat fragmentation and homogenization will thus benefit from the growing availability of detailed and contiguous data on three-dimensional habitat structure and associated habitat quality. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Evaluation of the use of performance reference compounds in an oasis-HLB adsorbent based passive sampler for improving water concentration estimates of polar herbicides in freshwater

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mazzella, N.; Lissalde, S.; Moreira, S.; Delmas, F.; Mazellier, P.; Huckins, J.N.

2010-01-01

Passive samplers such as the Polar Organic Chemical Integrative Sampler (POCIS) are useful tools for monitoring trace levels of polar organic chemicals in aquatic environments. The use of performance reference compounds (PRC) spiked into the POCIS adsorbent for in situ calibration may improve the semiquantitative nature of water concentration estimates based on this type of sampler. In this work, deuterium labeled atrazine-desisopropyl (DIA-d5) was chosen as PRC because of its relatively high fugacity from Oasis HLB (the POCIS adsorbent used) and our earlier evidence of its isotropic exchange. In situ calibration of POCIS spiked with DIA-d5was performed, and the resulting time-weighted average concentration estimates were compared with similar values from an automatic sampler equipped with Oasis HLB cartridges. Before PRC correction, water concentration estimates based on POCIS data sampling ratesfrom a laboratory calibration exposure were systematically lower than the reference concentrations obtained with the automatic sampler. Use of the DIA-d5 PRC data to correct POCIS sampling rates narrowed differences between corresponding values derived from the two methods. Application of PRCs for in situ calibration seems promising for improving POCIS-derived concentration estimates of polar pesticides. However, careful attention must be paid to the minimization of matrix effects when the quantification is performed by HPLC-ESI-MS/MS. ?? 2010 American Chemical Society.

Using known map category marginal frequencies to improve estimates of thematic map accuracy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Card, D. H.

1982-01-01

By means of two simple sampling plans suggested in the accuracy-assessment literature, it is shown how one can use knowledge of map-category relative sizes to improve estimates of various probabilities. The fact that maximum likelihood estimates of cell probabilities for the simple random sampling and map category-stratified sampling were identical has permitted a unified treatment of the contingency-table analysis. A rigorous analysis of the effect of sampling independently within map categories is made possible by results for the stratified case. It is noted that such matters as optimal sample size selection for the achievement of a desired level of precision in various estimators are irrelevant, since the estimators derived are valid irrespective of how sample sizes are chosen.

Point Estimate Transfers in Ecosystem Services Research: Applying Principles from Economics to Improve the Transfer of Ecological Production Estimates

EPA Science Inventory

There is increasing demand to describe and account for the benefits that humans derive from ecosystem functions in decision-making. Comprehensive descriptions of these benefits, referred to as ecosystem services (ES), and their production can be limited because there is limited ...

Using Appendicitis to Improve Estimates of Childhood Medicaid Participation Rates.

PubMed

Silber, Jeffrey H; Zeigler, Ashley E; Reiter, Joseph G; Hochman, Lauren L; Ludwig, Justin M; Wang, Wei; Calhoun, Shawna R; Pati, Susmita

2018-03-23

Administrative data are often used to estimate state Medicaid/Children's Health Insurance Program duration of enrollment and insurance continuity, but they are generally not used to estimate participation (the fraction of eligible children enrolled) because administrative data do not include reasons for disenrollment and cannot observe eligible never-enrolled children, causing estimates of eligible unenrolled to be inaccurate. Analysts are therefore forced to either utilize survey information that is not generally linkable to administrative claims or rely on duration and continuity measures derived from administrative data and forgo estimating claims-based participation. We introduce appendectomy-based participation (ABP) to estimate statewide participation rates using claims by taking advantage of a natural experiment around statewide appendicitis admissions to improve the accuracy of participation rate estimates. We used Medicaid Analytic eXtract (MAX) for 2008-2010; and the American Community Survey for 2008-2010 from 43 states to calculate ABP, continuity ratio, duration, and participation based on the American Community Survey (ACS). In the validation study, median participation rate using ABP was 86% versus 87% for ACS-based participation estimates using logical edits and 84% without logical edits. Correlations between ABP and ACS with or without logical edits was 0.86 (P < .0001). Using regression analysis, ABP alone was a significant predictor of ACS (P < .0001) with or without logical edits, and adding duration and/or the continuity ratio did not significantly improve the model. Using the ABP rate derived from administrative claims (MAX) is a valid method to estimate statewide public insurance participation rates in children. Copyright © 2018 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulation of range imaging-based estimation of respiratory lung motion. Influence of noise, signal dimensionality and sampling patterns.

PubMed

Wilms, M; Werner, R; Blendowski, M; Ortmüller, J; Handels, H

2014-01-01

A major problem associated with the irradiation of thoracic and abdominal tumors is respiratory motion. In clinical practice, motion compensation approaches are frequently steered by low-dimensional breathing signals (e.g., spirometry) and patient-specific correspondence models, which are used to estimate the sought internal motion given a signal measurement. Recently, the use of multidimensional signals derived from range images of the moving skin surface has been proposed to better account for complex motion patterns. In this work, a simulation study is carried out to investigate the motion estimation accuracy of such multidimensional signals and the influence of noise, the signal dimensionality, and different sampling patterns (points, lines, regions). A diffeomorphic correspondence modeling framework is employed to relate multidimensional breathing signals derived from simulated range images to internal motion patterns represented by diffeomorphic non-linear transformations. Furthermore, an automatic approach for the selection of optimal signal combinations/patterns within this framework is presented. This simulation study focuses on lung motion estimation and is based on 28 4D CT data sets. The results show that the use of multidimensional signals instead of one-dimensional signals significantly improves the motion estimation accuracy, which is, however, highly affected by noise. Only small differences exist between different multidimensional sampling patterns (lines and regions). Automatically determined optimal combinations of points and lines do not lead to accuracy improvements compared to results obtained by using all points or lines. Our results show the potential of multidimensional breathing signals derived from range images for the model-based estimation of respiratory motion in radiation therapy.

Virtual Metrology applied in Run-to-Run Control for a Chemical Mechanical Planarization process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jebri, M. A.; El Adel, E. M.; Graton, G.; Ouladsine, M.; Pinaton, J.

2017-01-01

This paper deals with missing data in semiconductor manufacturing derived from a measurement sampling strategies. The idea is to construct a virtual metrology module to estimate non measured variables using a new modified Just-In-Time Learning approach (JITL). The aim of this paper is to integrate estimated data into product control loop. In collaboration with our industrial partner STMicroelectronics Rousset, the accuracy of the proposed method is illustrated by using industrial data-sets derived from Chemical Mechanical Planarization (CMP) process that enables us to compare results obtained with the classical and the modified version of JITL approach. Then, the contribution of the estimated data is shown in product quality improvement.

Decay estimates of solutions to the bipolar non-isentropic compressible Euler-Maxwell system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Zhong; Wang, Yong; Tong, Leilei

2017-10-01

We consider the global existence and large time behavior of solutions near a constant equilibrium state to the bipolar non-isentropic compressible Euler-Maxwell system in {R}3 , where the background magnetic field could be non-zero. The global existence is established under the assumption that the H 3 norm of the initial data is small, but its higher order derivatives could be large. Combining the negative Sobolev (or Besov) estimates with the interpolation estimates, we prove the optimal time decay rates of the solution and its higher order spatial derivatives. In this sense, our results improve the similar ones in Wang et al (2012 SIAM J. Math. Anal. 44 3429-57).

Potential of commercial microwave link network derived rainfall for river runoff simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smiatek, Gerhard; Keis, Felix; Chwala, Christian; Fersch, Benjamin; Kunstmann, Harald

2017-03-01

Commercial microwave link networks allow for the quantification of path integrated precipitation because the attenuation by hydrometeors correlates with rainfall between transmitter and receiver stations. The networks, operated and maintained by cellphone companies, thereby provide completely new and country wide precipitation measurements. As the density of traditional precipitation station networks worldwide is significantly decreasing, microwave link derived precipitation estimates receive increasing attention not only by hydrologists but also by meteorological and hydrological services. We investigate the potential of microwave derived precipitation estimates for streamflow prediction and water balance analyses, exemplarily shown for an orographically complex region in the German Alps (River Ammer). We investigate the additional value of link derived rainfall estimations combined with station observations compared to station and weather radar derived values. Our river runoff simulation system employs a distributed hydrological model at 100 × 100 m grid resolution. We analyze the potential of microwave link derived precipitation estimates for two episodes of 30 days with typically moderate river flow and an episode of extreme flooding. The simulation results indicate the potential of this novel precipitation monitoring method: a significant improvement in hydrograph reproduction has been achieved in the extreme flooding period that was characterized by a large number of local strong precipitation events. The present rainfall monitoring gauges alone were not able to correctly capture these events.

Towards a Three-Dimensional Near-Real Time Cloud Product for Aviation Safety and Weather Diagnoses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minnis, Patrick; Nguyen, Louis; Palikonda, Rabindra; Spangeberg, Douglas; Nordeen, Michele L.; Yi, Yu-Hong; Ayers, J. Kirk

2004-01-01

Satellite data have long been used for determining the extent of cloud cover and for estimating the properties at the cloud tops. The derived properties can also be used to estimate aircraft icing potential to improve the safety of air traffic in the region. Currently, cloud properties and icing potential are derived in near-real time over the United States of America (USA) from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite GOES) imagers at 75 W and 135 W. Traditionally, the results have been given in two dimensions because of the lack of knowledge about the vertical extent of clouds and the occurrence of overlapping clouds. Aircraft fly in a three-dimensional space and require vertical as well as horizontal information about clouds, their intensity, and their potential for icing. To improve the vertical component of the derived cloud and icing parameters, this paper explores various methods and datasets for filling in the three-dimensional space over the USA with cloud water.

Baseline map of carbon emissions from deforestation in tropical regions.

PubMed

Harris, Nancy L; Brown, Sandra; Hagen, Stephen C; Saatchi, Sassan S; Petrova, Silvia; Salas, William; Hansen, Matthew C; Potapov, Peter V; Lotsch, Alexander

2012-06-22

Policies to reduce emissions from deforestation would benefit from clearly derived, spatially explicit, statistically bounded estimates of carbon emissions. Existing efforts derive carbon impacts of land-use change using broad assumptions, unreliable data, or both. We improve on this approach using satellite observations of gross forest cover loss and a map of forest carbon stocks to estimate gross carbon emissions across tropical regions between 2000 and 2005 as 0.81 petagram of carbon per year, with a 90% prediction interval of 0.57 to 1.22 petagrams of carbon per year. This estimate is 25 to 50% of recently published estimates. By systematically matching areas of forest loss with their carbon stocks before clearing, these results serve as a more accurate benchmark for monitoring global progress on reducing emissions from deforestation.

Baseline Map of Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in Tropical Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, Nancy L.; Brown, Sandra; Hagen, Stephen C.; Saatchi, Sassan S.; Petrova, Silvia; Salas, William; Hansen, Matthew C.; Potapov, Peter V.; Lotsch, Alexander

2012-06-01

Policies to reduce emissions from deforestation would benefit from clearly derived, spatially explicit, statistically bounded estimates of carbon emissions. Existing efforts derive carbon impacts of land-use change using broad assumptions, unreliable data, or both. We improve on this approach using satellite observations of gross forest cover loss and a map of forest carbon stocks to estimate gross carbon emissions across tropical regions between 2000 and 2005 as 0.81 petagram of carbon per year, with a 90% prediction interval of 0.57 to 1.22 petagrams of carbon per year. This estimate is 25 to 50% of recently published estimates. By systematically matching areas of forest loss with their carbon stocks before clearing, these results serve as a more accurate benchmark for monitoring global progress on reducing emissions from deforestation.

On the use of the GRACE normal equation of inter-satellite tracking data for estimation of soil moisture and groundwater in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tangdamrongsub, Natthachet; Han, Shin-Chan; Decker, Mark; Yeo, In-Young; Kim, Hyungjun

2018-03-01

An accurate estimation of soil moisture and groundwater is essential for monitoring the availability of water supply in domestic and agricultural sectors. In order to improve the water storage estimates, previous studies assimilated terrestrial water storage variation (ΔTWS) derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) into land surface models (LSMs). However, the GRACE-derived ΔTWS was generally computed from the high-level products (e.g. time-variable gravity fields, i.e. level 2, and land grid from the level 3 product). The gridded data products are subjected to several drawbacks such as signal attenuation and/or distortion caused by a posteriori filters and a lack of error covariance information. The post-processing of GRACE data might lead to the undesired alteration of the signal and its statistical property. This study uses the GRACE least-squares normal equation data to exploit the GRACE information rigorously and negate these limitations. Our approach combines GRACE's least-squares normal equation (obtained from ITSG-Grace2016 product) with the results from the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) model to improve soil moisture and groundwater estimates. This study demonstrates, for the first time, an importance of using the GRACE raw data. The GRACE-combined (GC) approach is developed for optimal least-squares combination and the approach is applied to estimate the soil moisture and groundwater over 10 Australian river basins. The results are validated against the satellite soil moisture observation and the in situ groundwater data. Comparing to CABLE, we demonstrate the GC approach delivers evident improvement of water storage estimates, consistently from all basins, yielding better agreement on seasonal and inter-annual timescales. Significant improvement is found in groundwater storage while marginal improvement is observed in surface soil moisture estimates.

Risk and the physics of clinical prediction.

PubMed

McEvoy, John W; Diamond, George A; Detrano, Robert C; Kaul, Sanjay; Blaha, Michael J; Blumenthal, Roger S; Jones, Steven R

2014-04-15

The current paradigm of primary prevention in cardiology uses traditional risk factors to estimate future cardiovascular risk. These risk estimates are based on prediction models derived from prospective cohort studies and are incorporated into guideline-based initiation algorithms for commonly used preventive pharmacologic treatments, such as aspirin and statins. However, risk estimates are more accurate for populations of similar patients than they are for any individual patient. It may be hazardous to presume that the point estimate of risk derived from a population model represents the most accurate estimate for a given patient. In this review, we exploit principles derived from physics as a metaphor for the distinction between predictions regarding populations versus patients. We identify the following: (1) predictions of risk are accurate at the level of populations but do not translate directly to patients, (2) perfect accuracy of individual risk estimation is unobtainable even with the addition of multiple novel risk factors, and (3) direct measurement of subclinical disease (screening) affords far greater certainty regarding the personalized treatment of patients, whereas risk estimates often remain uncertain for patients. In conclusion, shifting our focus from prediction of events to detection of disease could improve personalized decision-making and outcomes. We also discuss innovative future strategies for risk estimation and treatment allocation in preventive cardiology. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Calibration of the Diameter Distribution Derived from the Area-based Approach with Individual Tree-based Diameter Estimates Using the Airborne Laser Scanning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Q.; Hou, Z.; Maltamo, M.; Tokola, T.

2015-12-01

Diameter distributions of trees are important indicators of current forest stand structure and future dynamics. A new method was proposed in the study to combine the diameter distributions derived from the area-based approach (ABA) and the diameter distribution derived from the individual tree detection (ITD) in order to obtain more accurate forest stand attributes. Since dominant trees can be reliably detected and measured by the Lidar data via the ITD, the focus of the study is to retrieve the suppressed trees (trees that were missed by the ITD) from the ABA. Replacement and histogram matching were respectively employed at the plot level to retrieve the suppressed trees. Cut point was detected from the ITD-derived diameter distribution for each sample plot to distinguish dominant trees from the suppressed trees. The results showed that calibrated diameter distributions were more accurate in terms of error index and the entire growing stock estimates. Compared with the best performer between the ABA and the ITD, calibrated diameter distributions decreased the relative RMSE of the estimated entire growing stock, saw log and pulpwood fractions by 2.81%, 3.05% and 7.73% points respectively. Calibration improved the estimation of pulpwood fraction significantly, resulting in a negligible bias of the estimated entire growing stock.

A bias correction for covariance estimators to improve inference with generalized estimating equations that use an unstructured correlation matrix.

PubMed

Westgate, Philip M

2013-07-20

Generalized estimating equations (GEEs) are routinely used for the marginal analysis of correlated data. The efficiency of GEE depends on how closely the working covariance structure resembles the true structure, and therefore accurate modeling of the working correlation of the data is important. A popular approach is the use of an unstructured working correlation matrix, as it is not as restrictive as simpler structures such as exchangeable and AR-1 and thus can theoretically improve efficiency. However, because of the potential for having to estimate a large number of correlation parameters, variances of regression parameter estimates can be larger than theoretically expected when utilizing the unstructured working correlation matrix. Therefore, standard error estimates can be negatively biased. To account for this additional finite-sample variability, we derive a bias correction that can be applied to typical estimators of the covariance matrix of parameter estimates. Via simulation and in application to a longitudinal study, we show that our proposed correction improves standard error estimation and statistical inference. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Number of 24-Hour Diet Recalls Needed to Estimate Energy Intake

PubMed Central

MA, Yunsheng; Olendzki, Barbara C.; Pagoto, Sherry L.; Hurley, Thomas G.; Magner, Robert P.; Ockene, Ira S.; Schneider, Kristin L.; Merriam, Philip A.; Hébert, James R.

2009-01-01

Purpose Twenty-four-hour diet recall interviews (24HRs) are used to assess diet and to validate other diet assessment instruments. Therefore it is important to know how many 24HRs are required to describe an individual's intake. Method Seventy-nine middle-aged white women completed seven 24HRs over a 14-day period, during which energy expenditure (EE) was determined by the doubly labeled water method (DLW). Mean daily intakes were compared to DLW-derived EE using paired t tests. Linear mixed models were used to evaluate the effect of call sequence and day of the week on 24HR-derived energy intake while adjusting for education, relative body weight, social desirability, and an interaction between call sequence and social desirability. Results Mean EE from DLW was 2115 kcal/day. Adjusted 24HR-derived energy intake was lowest at call 1 (1501 kcal/day); significantly higher energy intake was observed at calls 2 and 3 (2246 and 2315 kcal/day, respectively). Energy intake on Friday was significantly lower than on Sunday. Averaging energy intake from the first two calls better approximated true energy expenditure than did the first call, and averaging the first three calls further improved the estimate (p = 0.02 for both comparisons). Additional calls did not improve estimation. Conclusions Energy intake is underreported on the first 24HR. Three 24HRs appear optimal for estimating energy intake. PMID:19576535

Number of 24-hour diet recalls needed to estimate energy intake.

PubMed

Ma, Yunsheng; Olendzki, Barbara C; Pagoto, Sherry L; Hurley, Thomas G; Magner, Robert P; Ockene, Ira S; Schneider, Kristin L; Merriam, Philip A; Hébert, James R

2009-08-01

Twenty-four-hour diet recall interviews (24HRs) are used to assess diet and to validate other diet assessment instruments. Therefore it is important to know how many 24HRs are required to describe an individual's intake. Seventy-nine middle-aged white women completed seven 24HRs over a 14-day period, during which energy expenditure (EE) was determined by the doubly labeled water method (DLW). Mean daily intakes were compared to DLW-derived EE using paired t tests. Linear mixed models were used to evaluate the effect of call sequence and day of the week on 24HR-derived energy intake while adjusting for education, relative body weight, social desirability, and an interaction between call sequence and social desirability. Mean EE from DLW was 2115 kcal/day. Adjusted 24HR-derived energy intake was lowest at call 1 (1501 kcal/day); significantly higher energy intake was observed at calls 2 and 3 (2246 and 2315 kcal/day, respectively). Energy intake on Friday was significantly lower than on Sunday. Averaging energy intake from the first two calls better approximated true energy expenditure than did the first call, and averaging the first three calls further improved the estimate (p=0.02 for both comparisons). Additional calls did not improve estimation. Energy intake is underreported on the first 24HR. Three 24HRs appear optimal for estimating energy intake.

An improved 3D MoF method based on analytical partial derivatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiang; Zhang, Xiong

2016-12-01

MoF (Moment of Fluid) method is one of the most accurate approaches among various surface reconstruction algorithms. As other second order methods, MoF method needs to solve an implicit optimization problem to obtain the optimal approximate surface. Therefore, the partial derivatives of the objective function have to be involved during the iteration for efficiency and accuracy. However, to the best of our knowledge, the derivatives are currently estimated numerically by finite difference approximation because it is very difficult to obtain the analytical derivatives of the object function for an implicit optimization problem. Employing numerical derivatives in an iteration not only increase the computational cost, but also deteriorate the convergence rate and robustness of the iteration due to their numerical error. In this paper, the analytical first order partial derivatives of the objective function are deduced for 3D problems. The analytical derivatives can be calculated accurately, so they are incorporated into the MoF method to improve its accuracy, efficiency and robustness. Numerical studies show that by using the analytical derivatives the iterations are converged in all mixed cells with the efficiency improvement of 3 to 4 times.

Edge connectivity and the spectral gap of combinatorial and quantum graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berkolaiko, Gregory; Kennedy, James B.; Kurasov, Pavel; Mugnolo, Delio

2017-09-01

We derive a number of upper and lower bounds for the first nontrivial eigenvalue of Laplacians on combinatorial and quantum graph in terms of the edge connectivity, i.e. the minimal number of edges which need to be removed to make the graph disconnected. On combinatorial graphs, one of the bounds corresponds to a well-known inequality of Fiedler, of which we give a new variational proof. On quantum graphs, the corresponding bound generalizes a recent result of Band and Lévy. All proofs are general enough to yield corresponding estimates for the p-Laplacian and allow us to identify the minimizers. Based on the Betti number of the graph, we also derive upper and lower bounds on all eigenvalues which are ‘asymptotically correct’, i.e. agree with the Weyl asymptotics for the eigenvalues of the quantum graph. In particular, the lower bounds improve the bounds of Friedlander on any given graph for all but finitely many eigenvalues, while the upper bounds improve recent results of Ariturk. Our estimates are also used to derive bounds on the eigenvalues of the normalized Laplacian matrix that improve known bounds of spectral graph theory.

iGLASS: An Improvement to the GLASS Method for Estimating Species Trees from Gene Trees

PubMed Central

Rosenberg, Noah A.

2012-01-01

Abstract Several methods have been designed to infer species trees from gene trees while taking into account gene tree/species tree discordance. Although some of these methods provide consistent species tree topology estimates under a standard model, most either do not estimate branch lengths or are computationally slow. An exception, the GLASS method of Mossel and Roch, is consistent for the species tree topology, estimates branch lengths, and is computationally fast. However, GLASS systematically overestimates divergence times, leading to biased estimates of species tree branch lengths. By assuming a multispecies coalescent model in which multiple lineages are sampled from each of two taxa at L independent loci, we derive the distribution of the waiting time until the first interspecific coalescence occurs between the two taxa, considering all loci and measuring from the divergence time. We then use the mean of this distribution to derive a correction to the GLASS estimator of pairwise divergence times. We show that our improved estimator, which we call iGLASS, consistently estimates the divergence time between a pair of taxa as the number of loci approaches infinity, and that it is an unbiased estimator of divergence times when one lineage is sampled per taxon. We also show that many commonly used clustering methods can be combined with the iGLASS estimator of pairwise divergence times to produce a consistent estimator of the species tree topology. Through simulations, we show that iGLASS can greatly reduce the bias and mean squared error in obtaining estimates of divergence times in a species tree. PMID:22216756

Potential for Improved Crop Yield Prediction Through Assimilation of Satellite-Derived Soil Moisture Data

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Crop yield estimates have a strong impact on dealing with food shortages and on market demand and supply; these estimates are critical for decision-making processes by the U.S. Government, policy makers, stakeholders, etc. Most of the decision making is based on forecasts provided by the U.S. Depart...

SPIPS: Spectro-Photo-Interferometry of Pulsating Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mérand, Antoine

2017-10-01

SPIPS (Spectro-Photo-Interferometry of Pulsating Stars) combines radial velocimetry, interferometry, and photometry to estimate physical parameters of pulsating stars, including presence of infrared excess, color excess, Teff, and ratio distance/p-factor. The global model-based parallax-of-pulsation method is implemented in Python. Derived parameters have a high level of confidence; statistical precision is improved (compared to other methods) due to the large number of data taken into account, accuracy is improved by using consistent physical modeling and reliability of the derived parameters is strengthened by redundancy in the data.

Improving estimates of streamflow characteristics using LANDSAT-1 (ERTS-1) imagery. [Delmarva Peninsula

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollyday, E. F. (Principal Investigator)

1975-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Streamflow characteristics in the Delmarva Peninsula derived from the records of daily discharge of 20 gaged basins are representative of the full range in flow conditions and include all of those commonly used for design or planning purposes. They include annual flood peaks with recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, and 50 years, mean annual discharge, standard deviation of the mean annual discharge, mean monthly discharges, standard deviation of the mean monthly discharges, low-flow characteristics, flood volume characteristics, and the discharge equalled or exceeded 50 percent of the time. Streamflow and basin characteristics were related by a technique of multiple regression using a digital computer. A control group of equations was computed using basin characteristics derived from maps and climatological records. An experimental group of equations was computed using basin characteristics derived from LANDSAT imagery as well as from maps and climatological records. Based on a reduction in standard error of estimate equal to or greater than 10 percent, the equations for 12 stream flow characteristics were substantially improved by adding to the analyses basin characteristics derived from LANDSAT imagery.

Practical aspects of a maximum likelihood estimation method to extract stability and control derivatives from flight data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iliff, K. W.; Maine, R. E.

1976-01-01

A maximum likelihood estimation method was applied to flight data and procedures to facilitate the routine analysis of a large amount of flight data were described. Techniques that can be used to obtain stability and control derivatives from aircraft maneuvers that are less than ideal for this purpose are described. The techniques involve detecting and correcting the effects of dependent or nearly dependent variables, structural vibration, data drift, inadequate instrumentation, and difficulties with the data acquisition system and the mathematical model. The use of uncertainty levels and multiple maneuver analysis also proved to be useful in improving the quality of the estimated coefficients. The procedures used for editing the data and for overall analysis are also discussed.

Improved water balance component estimates through joint assimilation of GRACE water storage and SMOS soil moisture retrievals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Siyuan; Tregoning, Paul; Renzullo, Luigi J.; van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; Walker, Jeffrey P.; Pauwels, Valentijn R. N.; Allgeyer, Sébastien

2017-03-01

The accuracy of global water balance estimates is limited by the lack of observations at large scale and the uncertainties of model simulations. Global retrievals of terrestrial water storage (TWS) change and soil moisture (SM) from satellites provide an opportunity to improve model estimates through data assimilation. However, combining these two data sets is challenging due to the disparity in temporal and spatial resolution at both vertical and horizontal scale. For the first time, TWS observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and near-surface SM observations from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) were jointly assimilated into a water balance model using the Ensemble Kalman Smoother from January 2010 to December 2013 for the Australian continent. The performance of joint assimilation was assessed against open-loop model simulations and the assimilation of either GRACE TWS anomalies or SMOS SM alone. The SMOS-only assimilation improved SM estimates but reduced the accuracy of groundwater and TWS estimates. The GRACE-only assimilation improved groundwater estimates but did not always produce accurate estimates of SM. The joint assimilation typically led to more accurate water storage profile estimates with improved surface SM, root-zone SM, and groundwater estimates against in situ observations. The assimilation successfully downscaled GRACE-derived integrated water storage horizontally and vertically into individual water stores at the same spatial scale as the model and SMOS, and partitioned monthly averaged TWS into daily estimates. These results demonstrate that satellite TWS and SM measurements can be jointly assimilated to produce improved water balance component estimates.

Accurate Satellite-Derived Estimates of Tropospheric Ozone Radiative Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joiner, Joanna; Schoeberl, Mark R.; Vasilkov, Alexander P.; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Platnick, Steven; Livesey, Nathaniel J.; Levelt, Pieternel F.

2008-01-01

Estimates of the radiative forcing due to anthropogenically-produced tropospheric O3 are derived primarily from models. Here, we use tropospheric ozone and cloud data from several instruments in the A-train constellation of satellites as well as information from the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System to accurately estimate the instantaneous radiative forcing from tropospheric O3 for January and July 2005. We improve upon previous estimates of tropospheric ozone mixing ratios from a residual approach using the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) by incorporating cloud pressure information from OMI. Since we cannot distinguish between natural and anthropogenic sources with the satellite data, our estimates reflect the total forcing due to tropospheric O3. We focus specifically on the magnitude and spatial structure of the cloud effect on both the shortand long-wave radiative forcing. The estimates presented here can be used to validate present day O3 radiative forcing produced by models.

Validation of GOES-9 Satellite-Derived Cloud Properties over the Tropical Western Pacific Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khaiyer, Mandana M.; Nordeen, Michele L.; Doeling, David R.; Chakrapani, Venkatasan; Minnis, Patrick; Smith, William L., Jr.

2004-01-01

Real-time processing of hourly GOES-9 images in the ARM TWP region began operationally in October 2003 and is continuing. The ARM sites provide an excellent source for validating this new satellitederived cloud and radiation property dataset. Derived cloud amounts, heights, and broadband shortwave fluxes are compared with similar quantities derived from ground-based instrumentation. The results will provide guidance for estimating uncertainties in the GOES-9 products and to develop improvements in the retrieval methodologies and input.

Establishing Alpha Oph as a Prototype Rotator: Improved Astrometric Orbit

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-10

astrometric characterization of the companion orbit. We also use photometry from these observations to derive a model-based estimate of the companion mass. A...uncertainties. In addition to the dynamically derived masses, we use IJHK photometry to derive a model-based mass for α Oph B, of 0.77 ± 0.05 M...man 1966; Gatewood 2005) with a 8.62 yr period, well estab- lished over several decades of monitoring and first resolved by McCarthy (1983). But a

Analysis of the effects of wing interference on the tail contributions to the rolling derivatives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Michael, William H , Jr

1952-01-01

An analysis of the effects of wing interference on the tail contributions to the rolling stability derivatives of complete airplane configurations is made by calculating the angularity of the air stream at the vertical tail due to rolling and determining the resulting forces and moments. Some of the important factors which affect the resultant angularity on the vertical tail are wing aspect ratio and sweepback, vertical-tail span, and considerations associated with angle of attack and airplane geometry. Some calculated sidewash results for a limited range of plan forms and vertical-tail sizes are presented. Equations taking into account the sidewash results are given for determining the tail contributions to the rolling derivatives. Comparisons of estimated and experimental results indicate that a consideration of wing interference effects improves the estimated values of the tail contributions to the rolling derivatives and that fair agreement with available experimental data is obtained.

Advances in Inhalation Dosimetry Models and Methods for Occupational Risk Assessment and Exposure Limit Derivation

PubMed Central

Kuempel, Eileen D.; Sweeney, Lisa M.; Morris, John B.; Jarabek, Annie M.

2015-01-01

The purpose of this article is to provide an overview and practical guide to occupational health professionals concerning the derivation and use of dose estimates in risk assessment for development of occupational exposure limits (OELs) for inhaled substances. Dosimetry is the study and practice of measuring or estimating the internal dose of a substance in individuals or a population. Dosimetry thus provides an essential link to understanding the relationship between an external exposure and a biological response. Use of dosimetry principles and tools can improve the accuracy of risk assessment, and reduce the uncertainty, by providing reliable estimates of the internal dose at the target tissue. This is accomplished through specific measurement data or predictive models, when available, or the use of basic dosimetry principles for broad classes of materials. Accurate dose estimation is essential not only for dose-response assessment, but also for interspecies extrapolation and for risk characterization at given exposures. Inhalation dosimetry is the focus of this paper since it is a major route of exposure in the workplace. Practical examples of dose estimation and OEL derivation are provided for inhaled gases and particulates. PMID:26551218

Determination of the stability and control derivatives of the NASA F/A-18 HARV using flight data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Napolitano, Marcello R.; Spagnuolo, Joelle M.

1993-01-01

This report documents the research conducted for the NASA-Ames Cooperative Agreement No. NCC 2-759 with West Virginia University. A complete set of the stability and control derivatives for varying angles of attack from 10 deg to 60 deg were estimated from flight data of the NASA F/A-18 HARV. The data were analyzed with the use of the pEst software which implements the output-error method of parameter estimation. Discussions of the aircraft equations of motion, parameter estimation process, design of flight test maneuvers, and formulation of the mathematical model are presented. The added effects of the thrust vectoring and single surface excitation systems are also addressed. The results of the longitudinal and lateral directional derivative estimates at varying angles of attack are presented and compared to results from previous analyses. The results indicate a significant improvement due to the independent control surface deflections induced by the single surface excitation system, and at the same time, a need for additional flight data especially at higher angles of attack.

Challenges of Estimating the Annual Caseload of Severe Acute Malnutrition: The Case of Niger

PubMed Central

Hallarou, Mahaman; Gérard, Jean-Christophe; Donnen, Philippe; Macq, Jean

2016-01-01

Introduction Reliable prospective estimates of annual severe acute malnutrition (SAM) caseloads for treatment are needed for policy decisions and planning of quality services in the context of competing public health priorities and limited resources. This paper compares the reliability of SAM caseloads of children 6–59 months of age in Niger estimated from prevalence at the start of the year and counted from incidence at the end of the year. Methods Secondary data from two health districts for 2012 and the country overall for 2013 were used to calculate annual caseload of SAM. Prevalence and coverage were extracted from survey reports, and incidence from weekly surveillance systems. Results The prospective caseload estimate derived from prevalence and duration of illness underestimated the true burden. Similar incidence was derived from two weekly surveillance systems, but differed from that obtained from the monthly system. Incidence conversion factors were two to five times higher than recommended. Discussion Obtaining reliable prospective caseloads was challenging because prevalence is unsuitable for estimating incidence of SAM. Different SAM indicators identified different SAM populations, and duration of illness, expected contact coverage and population figures were inaccurate. The quality of primary data measurement, recording and reporting affected incidence numbers from surveillance. Coverage estimated in population surveys was rarely available, and coverage obtained by comparing admissions with prospective caseload estimates was unrealistic or impractical. Conclusions Caseload estimates derived from prevalence are unreliable and should be used with caution. Policy and service decisions that depend on these numbers may weaken performance of service delivery. Niger may improve SAM surveillance by simplifying and improving primary data collection and methods using innovative information technologies for single data entry at the first contact with the health system. Lessons may be relevant for countries with a high burden of SAM, including for targeted emergency responses. PMID:27606677

Improving the estimation of zenith dry tropospheric delays using regional surface meteorological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, X.; Heck, B.; Awange, J. L.

2013-12-01

Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are emerging as possible tools for remote sensing high-resolution atmospheric water vapour that improves weather forecasting through numerical weather prediction models. Nowadays, the GNSS-derived tropospheric zenith total delay (ZTD), comprising zenith dry delay (ZDD) and zenith wet delay (ZWD), is achievable with sub-centimetre accuracy. However, if no representative near-site meteorological information is available, the quality of the ZDD derived from tropospheric models is degraded, leading to inaccurate estimation of the water vapour component ZWD as difference between ZTD and ZDD. On the basis of freely accessible regional surface meteorological data, this paper proposes a height-dependent linear correction model for a priori ZDD. By applying the ordinary least-squares estimation (OLSE), bootstrapping (BOOT), and leave-one-out cross-validation (CROS) methods, the model parameters are estimated and analysed with respect to outlier detection. The model validation is carried out using GNSS stations with near-site meteorological measurements. The results verify the efficiency of the proposed ZDD correction model, showing a significant reduction in the mean bias from several centimetres to about 5 mm. The OLSE method enables a fast computation, while the CROS procedure allows for outlier detection. All the three methods produce consistent results after outlier elimination, which improves the regression quality by about 20% and the model accuracy by up to 30%.

Derivation of Improved Surface and TOA Broadband Fluxes Using CERES-derived Narrowband-to-Broadband Coefficients

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khaiyer, Mandana M.; Doelling, David R.; Chan, Pui K.; Nordeen, MIchele L.; Palikonda, Rabindra; Yi, Yuhong; Minnis, Patrick

2006-01-01

Satellites can provide global coverage of a number of climatically important radiative parameters, including broadband (BB) shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and surface. These parameters can be estimated from narrowband (NB) Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data, but their accuracy is highly dependent on the validity of the narrowband-to-broadband (NB-BB) conversion formulas that are used to convert the NB fluxes to broadband values. The formula coefficients have historically been derived by regressing matched polarorbiting satellite BB fluxes or radiances with their NB counterparts from GOES (e.g., Minnis et al., 1984). More recently, the coefficients have been based on matched Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) and GOES-6 data (Minnis and Smith, 1998). The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy Budget (CERES see Wielicki et al. 1998)) project has recently developed much improved Angular Distribution Models (ADM; Loeb et al., 2003) and has higher resolution data compared to ERBE. A limited set of coefficients was also derived from matched GOES-8 and CERES data taken on Topical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite (Chakrapani et al., 2003; Doelling et al., 2003). The NB-BB coefficients derived from CERES and the GOES suite should yield more accurate BB fluxes than from ERBE, but are limited spatially and seasonally. With CERES data taken from Terra and Aqua, it is now possible to derive more reliable NB-BB coefficients for any given area. Better TOA fluxes should translate to improved surface radiation fluxes derived using various algorithms. As part of an ongoing effort to provide accurate BB flux estimates for the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program, this paper documents the derivation of new NB-BB coefficients for the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) domain and for the Darwin region of the Tropical Western Pacific (DTWP) domain.

Improved Methodology for Surface and Atmospheric Soundings, Error Estimates, and Quality Control Procedures: the AIRS Science Team Version-6 Retrieval Algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Blaisdell, John; Iredell, Lena

2014-01-01

The AIRS Science Team Version-6 AIRS/AMSU retrieval algorithm is now operational at the Goddard DISC. AIRS Version-6 level-2 products are generated near real-time at the Goddard DISC and all level-2 and level-3 products are available starting from September 2002. This paper describes some of the significant improvements in retrieval methodology contained in the Version-6 retrieval algorithm compared to that previously used in Version-5. In particular, the AIRS Science Team made major improvements with regard to the algorithms used to 1) derive surface skin temperature and surface spectral emissivity; 2) generate the initial state used to start the cloud clearing and retrieval procedures; and 3) derive error estimates and use them for Quality Control. Significant improvements have also been made in the generation of cloud parameters. In addition to the basic AIRS/AMSU mode, Version-6 also operates in an AIRS Only (AO) mode which produces results almost as good as those of the full AIRS/AMSU mode. This paper also demonstrates the improvements of some AIRS Version-6 and Version-6 AO products compared to those obtained using Version-5.

The EGM2008 Global Gravitational Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavlis, N. K.; Holmes, S. A.; Kenyon, S. C.; Factor, J. K.

2008-12-01

The development of a new Earth Gravitational Model (EGM) to degree 2160 has been completed. This model, designated EGM2008, is the product of the final re-iteration of our modelling and estimation approach. Our multi-year effort has produced several Preliminary Gravitational Models (PGM) of increasingly improved performance. One of these models (PGM2007A) was provided for evaluation to an independent Evaluation Working Group, sponsored by the International Association of Geodesy (IAG). In an effort to address certain shortcomings of PGM2007A, we have considered the feedback that we received from this Working Group. As part of this effort, EGM2008 incorporates an improved version of our 5'x5' global gravity anomaly database and has benefited from the latest GRACE based satellite-only solutions (e.g., ITG- GRACE03S). EGM2008 incorporates an improved ocean-wide set of altimetry-derived gravity anomalies that were estimated using PGM2007B (a variant of PGM2007A) and its associated Dynamic Ocean Topography (DOT) model as reference models in a "Remove-Compute-Restore" fashion. For the Least Squares Collocation estimation of our final global 5'x5' area-mean gravity anomaly database, we have used consistently PGM2007B as our reference model to degree 2160. We have developed and used a formulation that predicts area-mean gravity anomalies that are effectively band-limited to degree 2160, thereby minimizing aliasing effects during the harmonic analysis process. We have also placed special emphasis on the refinement and "calibration" of the error estimates that accompany our final combination solution EGM2008. We present the main aspects of the model's development and evaluation. This evaluation was accomplished primarily through the comparison of various model derived quantities with independent data and models (e.g., geoid undulations derived from GPS positioning and spirit levelling, astronomical deflections of the vertical, etc.). We will also present comparisons of our model-implied Dynamic Ocean Topography with other contemporary estimates (e.g., from ECCO).

Improving Hurricane Heat Content Estimates From Satellite Altimeter Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Matthaeis, P.; Jacob, S.; Roubert, L. M.; Shay, N.; Black, P.

2007-12-01

Hurricanes are amongst the most destructive natural disasters known to mankind. The primary energy source driving these storms is the latent heat release due to the condensation of water vapor, which ultimately comes from the ocean. While the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has a direct correlation with wind speeds, the oceanic heat content is dependent on the upper ocean vertical structure. Understanding the impact of these factors in the mutual interaction of hurricane-ocean is critical to more accurately forecasting intensity change in land-falling hurricanes. Use of hurricane heat content derived from the satellite radar altimeter measurements of sea surface height has been shown to improve intensity prediction. The general approach of estimating ocean heat content uses a two-layer model representing the ocean with its anomalies derived from altimeter data. Although these estimates compare reasonably well with in-situ measurements, they are generally about 10% under-biased. Additionally, recent studies show that the comparisons are less than satisfactory in the Western North Pacific. Therefore, our objective is to develop a methodology to more accurately represent the upper ocean structure using in-situ data. As part of a NOAA/ USWRP sponsored research, upper ocean observations were acquired in the Gulf of Mexico during the summers of 1999 and 2000. Overall, 260 expendable profilers (XCTD, XBT and XCP) acquired vertical temperature structure in the high heat content regions corresponding to the Loop Current and Warm Core Eddies. Using the temperature and salinity data from the XCTDs, first the Temperature-Salinity relationships in the Loop Current Water and Gulf Common water are derived based on the depth of the 26° C isotherm. These derived T-S relationships compare well with those inferred from climatology. By means of these relationships, estimated salinity values corresponding to the XBT and XCP temperature measurements are calculated, and used to derive continuous profiles of density. Ocean heat content is then estimated from these profiles, and compared to that derived from altimeter data, showing - as mentioned earlier - a consistent bias. Using a procedure that conserves density in the vertical, these density profiles are discretized into five isopycnic layers representative of the upper ocean in the Gulf of Mexico. Statistical correlations are then derived between the altimetric sea surface height anomalies and the thickness of these layers in the region. Using these correlations, a higher resolution upper ocean structure is derived from the altimeter data. Withholding observations from one snapshot of data in the correlations, and comparing the estimated ocean heat content with in-situ values, will allow us to quantify errors in this approach. This methodology will then be extended to the Western Pacific using Argo data, and results will be presented.

Estimating irrigation water demand using an improved method and optimizing reservoir operation for water supply and hydropower generation: a case study of the Xinfengjiang reservoir in southern China

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wu, Yiping; Chen, Ji

2013-01-01

The ever-increasing demand for water due to growth of population and socioeconomic development in the past several decades has posed a worldwide threat to water supply security and to the environmental health of rivers. This study aims to derive reservoir operating rules through establishing a multi-objective optimization model for the Xinfengjiang (XFJ) reservoir in the East River Basin in southern China to minimize water supply deficit and maximize hydropower generation. Additionally, to enhance the estimation of irrigation water demand from the downstream agricultural area of the XFJ reservoir, a conventional method for calculating crop water demand is improved using hydrological model simulation results. Although the optimal reservoir operating rules are derived for the XFJ reservoir with three priority scenarios (water supply only, hydropower generation only, and equal priority), the river environmental health is set as the basic demand no matter which scenario is adopted. The results show that the new rules derived under the three scenarios can improve the reservoir operation for both water supply and hydropower generation when comparing to the historical performance. Moreover, these alternative reservoir operating policies provide the flexibility for the reservoir authority to choose the most appropriate one. Although changing the current operating rules may influence its hydropower-oriented functions, the new rules can be significant to cope with the increasingly prominent water shortage and degradation in the aquatic environment. Overall, our results and methods (improved estimation of irrigation water demand and formulation of the reservoir optimization model) can be useful for local watershed managers and valuable for other researchers worldwide.

Psychosocial work environment and myocardial infarction: improving risk estimation by combining two complementary job stress models in the SHEEP Study

PubMed Central

Peter, R; Siegrist, J; Hallqvist, J; Reuterwall, C; Theorell, T

2002-01-01

Objectives: Associations between two alternative formulations of job stress derived from the effort-reward imbalance and the job strain model and first non-fatal acute myocardial infarction were studied. Whereas the job strain model concentrates on situational (extrinsic) characteristics the effort-reward imbalance model analyses distinct person (intrinsic) characteristics in addition to situational ones. In view of these conceptual differences the hypothesis was tested that combining information from the two models improves the risk estimation of acute myocardial infarction. Methods: 951 male and female myocardial infarction cases and 1147 referents aged 45–64 years of The Stockholm Heart Epidemiology (SHEEP) case-control study underwent a clinical examination. Information on job stress and health adverse behaviours was derived from standardised questionnaires. Results: Multivariate analysis showed moderately increased odds ratios for either model. Yet, with respect to the effort-reward imbalance model gender specific effects were found: in men the extrinsic component contributed to risk estimation, whereas this was the case with the intrinsic component in women. Controlling each job stress model for the other in order to test the independent effect of either approach did not show systematically increased odds ratios. An improved estimation of acute myocardial infarction risk resulted from combining information from the two models by defining groups characterised by simultaneous exposure to effort-reward imbalance and job strain (men: odds ratio 2.02 (95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.34 to 3.07); women odds ratio 2.19 (95% CI 1.11 to 4.28)). Conclusions: Findings show an improved risk estimation of acute myocardial infarction by combining information from the two job stress models under study. Moreover, gender specific effects of the two components of the effort-reward imbalance model were observed. PMID:11896138

Improved Range Estimation Model for Three-Dimensional (3D) Range Gated Reconstruction

PubMed Central

Chua, Sing Yee; Guo, Ningqun; Tan, Ching Seong; Wang, Xin

2017-01-01

Accuracy is an important measure of system performance and remains a challenge in 3D range gated reconstruction despite the advancement in laser and sensor technology. The weighted average model that is commonly used for range estimation is heavily influenced by the intensity variation due to various factors. Accuracy improvement in term of range estimation is therefore important to fully optimise the system performance. In this paper, a 3D range gated reconstruction model is derived based on the operating principles of range gated imaging and time slicing reconstruction, fundamental of radiant energy, Laser Detection And Ranging (LADAR), and Bidirectional Reflection Distribution Function (BRDF). Accordingly, a new range estimation model is proposed to alleviate the effects induced by distance, target reflection, and range distortion. From the experimental results, the proposed model outperforms the conventional weighted average model to improve the range estimation for better 3D reconstruction. The outcome demonstrated is of interest to various laser ranging applications and can be a reference for future works. PMID:28872589

Latitudinal distributions of particulate carbon export across the North Western Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puigcorbé, Viena; Roca-Martí, Montserrat; Masqué, Pere; Benitez-Nelson, Claudia; Rutgers van der Loeff, Michiel; Bracher, Astrid; Moreau, Sebastien

2017-11-01

234Th-derived carbon export fluxes were measured in the Atlantic Ocean under the GEOTRACES framework to evaluate basin-scale export variability. Here, we present the results from the northern half of the GA02 transect, spanning from the equator to 64°N. As a result of limited site-specific C/234Th ratio measurements, we further combined our data with previous work to develop a basin wide C/234Th ratio depth curve. While the magnitude of organic carbon fluxes varied depending on the C/234Th ratio used, latitudinal trends were similar, with sizeable and variable organic carbon export fluxes occurring at high latitudes and low to negligible fluxes occurring in oligotrophic waters. Our results agree with previous studies, except at the boundaries between domains, where fluxes were relatively enhanced. Three different models were used to obtain satellite-derived net primary production (NPP). In general, NPP estimates had similar trends along the transect, but there were significant differences in the absolute magnitude depending on the model used. Nevertheless, organic carbon export efficiencies were generally < 25%, with the exception of a few stations located in the transition area between the riverine and the oligotrophic domains and between the oligotrophic and the temperate domains. Satellite-derived organic carbon export models from Dunne et al. (2005) (D05), Laws et al. (2011) (L11) and Henson et al. (2011) (H11) were also compared to our 234Th-derived carbon exports fluxes. D05 and L11 provided estimates closest to values obtained with the 234Th approach (within a 3-fold difference), but with no clear trends. The H11 model, on the other hand, consistently provided lower export estimates. The large increase in export data in the Atlantic Ocean derived from the GEOTRACES Program, combined with satellite observations and modeling efforts continue to improve the estimates of carbon export in this ocean basin and therefore reduce uncertainty in the global carbon budget. However, our results also suggest that tuning export models and including biological parameters at a regional scale is necessary for improving satellite-modeling efforts and providing export estimates that are more representative of in situ observations.

Highway traffic estimation of improved precision using the derivative-free nonlinear Kalman Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigatos, Gerasimos; Siano, Pierluigi; Zervos, Nikolaos; Melkikh, Alexey

2015-12-01

The paper proves that the PDE dynamic model of the highway traffic is a differentially flat one and by applying spatial discretization its shows that the model's transformation into an equivalent linear canonical state-space form is possible. For the latter representation of the traffic's dynamics, state estimation is performed with the use of the Derivative-free nonlinear Kalman Filter. The proposed filter consists of the Kalman Filter recursion applied on the transformed state-space model of the highway traffic. Moreover, it makes use of an inverse transformation, based again on differential flatness theory which enables to obtain estimates of the state variables of the initial nonlinear PDE model. By avoiding approximate linearizations and the truncation of nonlinear terms from the PDE model of the traffic's dynamics the proposed filtering methods outperforms, in terms of accuracy, other nonlinear estimators such as the Extended Kalman Filter. The article's theoretical findings are confirmed through simulation experiments.

Space shuttle propulsion parameter estimation using optimal estimation techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1983-01-01

The first twelve system state variables are presented with the necessary mathematical developments for incorporating them into the filter/smoother algorithm. Other state variables, i.e., aerodynamic coefficients can be easily incorporated into the estimation algorithm, representing uncertain parameters, but for initial checkout purposes are treated as known quantities. An approach for incorporating the NASA propulsion predictive model results into the optimal estimation algorithm was identified. This approach utilizes numerical derivatives and nominal predictions within the algorithm with global iterations of the algorithm. The iterative process is terminated when the quality of the estimates provided no longer significantly improves.

Assimilating satellite-based canopy height within an ecosystem model to estimate aboveground forest biomass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joetzjer, E.; Pillet, M.; Ciais, P.; Barbier, N.; Chave, J.; Schlund, M.; Maignan, F.; Barichivich, J.; Luyssaert, S.; Hérault, B.; von Poncet, F.; Poulter, B.

2017-07-01

Despite advances in Earth observation and modeling, estimating tropical biomass remains a challenge. Recent work suggests that integrating satellite measurements of canopy height within ecosystem models is a promising approach to infer biomass. We tested the feasibility of this approach to retrieve aboveground biomass (AGB) at three tropical forest sites by assimilating remotely sensed canopy height derived from a texture analysis algorithm applied to the high-resolution Pleiades imager in the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems Canopy (ORCHIDEE-CAN) ecosystem model. While mean AGB could be estimated within 10% of AGB derived from census data in average across sites, canopy height derived from Pleiades product was spatially too smooth, thus unable to accurately resolve large height (and biomass) variations within the site considered. The error budget was evaluated in details, and systematic errors related to the ORCHIDEE-CAN structure contribute as a secondary source of error and could be overcome by using improved allometric equations.

Comparisons of Derived Metrics from Computed Tomography (CT) Scanned Images of Fluvial Sediment from Gravel-Bed Flume Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voepel, Hal; Ahmed, Sharif; Hodge, Rebecca; Leyland, Julian; Sear, David

2016-04-01

Uncertainty in bedload estimates for gravel bed rivers is largely driven by our inability to characterize arrangement, orientation and resultant forces of fluvial sediment in river beds. Water working of grains leads to structural differences between areas of the bed through particle sorting, packing, imbrication, mortaring and degree of bed armoring. In this study, non-destructive, micro-focus X-ray computed tomography (CT) imaging in 3D is used to visualize, quantify and assess the internal geometry of sections of a flume bed that have been extracted keeping their fabric intact. Flume experiments were conducted at 1:1 scaling of our prototype river. From the volume, center of mass, points of contact, and protrusion of individual grains derived from 3D scan data we estimate 3D static force properties at the grain-scale such as pivoting angles, buoyancy and gravity forces, and local grain exposure. Here metrics are derived for images from two flume experiments: one with a bed of coarse grains (>4mm) and the other where sand and clay were incorporated into the coarse flume bed. In addition to deriving force networks, comparison of metrics such as critical shear stress, pivot angles, grain distributions, principle axis orientation, and pore space over depth are made. This is the first time bed stability has been studied in 3D using CT scanned images of sediment from the bed surface to depths well into the subsurface. The derived metrics, inter-granular relationships and characterization of bed structures will lead to improved bedload estimates with reduced uncertainty, as well as improved understanding of relationships between sediment structure, grain size distribution and channel topography.

Fast maximum likelihood estimation of mutation rates using a birth-death process.

PubMed

Wu, Xiaowei; Zhu, Hongxiao

2015-02-07

Since fluctuation analysis was first introduced by Luria and Delbrück in 1943, it has been widely used to make inference about spontaneous mutation rates in cultured cells. Under certain model assumptions, the probability distribution of the number of mutants that appear in a fluctuation experiment can be derived explicitly, which provides the basis of mutation rate estimation. It has been shown that, among various existing estimators, the maximum likelihood estimator usually demonstrates some desirable properties such as consistency and lower mean squared error. However, its application in real experimental data is often hindered by slow computation of likelihood due to the recursive form of the mutant-count distribution. We propose a fast maximum likelihood estimator of mutation rates, MLE-BD, based on a birth-death process model with non-differential growth assumption. Simulation studies demonstrate that, compared with the conventional maximum likelihood estimator derived from the Luria-Delbrück distribution, MLE-BD achieves substantial improvement on computational speed and is applicable to arbitrarily large number of mutants. In addition, it still retains good accuracy on point estimation. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Estimating the Amount of Eroded Section in a Partially Exhumed Basin from Geophysical Well Logs: An Example from the North Slope

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, W. Matthew; Hayba, Daniel O.; Rowan, Elisabeth L.; Houseknecht, David W.

2007-01-01

The reconstruction of burial and thermal histories of partially exhumed basins requires an estimation of the amount of erosion that has occurred since the time of maximum burial. We have developed a method for estimating eroded thickness by using porosity-depth trends derived from borehole sonic logs of wells in the Colville Basin of northern Alaska. Porosity-depth functions defined from sonic-porosity logs in wells drilled in minimally eroded parts of the basin provide a baseline for comparison with the porosity-depth trends observed in other wells across the basin. Calculated porosities, based on porosity-depth functions, were fitted to the observed data in each well by varying the amount of section assumed to have been eroded from the top of the sedimentary column. The result is an estimate of denudation at the wellsite since the time of maximum sediment accumulation. Alternative methods of estimating exhumation include fission-track analysis and projection of trendlines through vitrinite-reflectance profiles. In the Colville Basin, the methodology described here provides results generally similar to those from fission-track analysis and vitrinite-reflectance profiles, but with greatly improved spatial resolution relative to the published fission-track data and with improved reliability relative to the vitrinite-reflectance data. In addition, the exhumation estimates derived from sonic-porosity logs are independent of the thermal evolution of the basin, allowing these estimates to be used as independent variables in thermal-history modeling.

A covariance correction that accounts for correlation estimation to improve finite-sample inference with generalized estimating equations: A study on its applicability with structured correlation matrices

PubMed Central

Westgate, Philip M.

2016-01-01

When generalized estimating equations (GEE) incorporate an unstructured working correlation matrix, the variances of regression parameter estimates can inflate due to the estimation of the correlation parameters. In previous work, an approximation for this inflation that results in a corrected version of the sandwich formula for the covariance matrix of regression parameter estimates was derived. Use of this correction for correlation structure selection also reduces the over-selection of the unstructured working correlation matrix. In this manuscript, we conduct a simulation study to demonstrate that an increase in variances of regression parameter estimates can occur when GEE incorporates structured working correlation matrices as well. Correspondingly, we show the ability of the corrected version of the sandwich formula to improve the validity of inference and correlation structure selection. We also study the relative influences of two popular corrections to a different source of bias in the empirical sandwich covariance estimator. PMID:27818539

A covariance correction that accounts for correlation estimation to improve finite-sample inference with generalized estimating equations: A study on its applicability with structured correlation matrices.

PubMed

Westgate, Philip M

2016-01-01

When generalized estimating equations (GEE) incorporate an unstructured working correlation matrix, the variances of regression parameter estimates can inflate due to the estimation of the correlation parameters. In previous work, an approximation for this inflation that results in a corrected version of the sandwich formula for the covariance matrix of regression parameter estimates was derived. Use of this correction for correlation structure selection also reduces the over-selection of the unstructured working correlation matrix. In this manuscript, we conduct a simulation study to demonstrate that an increase in variances of regression parameter estimates can occur when GEE incorporates structured working correlation matrices as well. Correspondingly, we show the ability of the corrected version of the sandwich formula to improve the validity of inference and correlation structure selection. We also study the relative influences of two popular corrections to a different source of bias in the empirical sandwich covariance estimator.

Solutions for the diurnally forced advection-diffusion equation to estimate bulk fluid velocity and diffusivity in streambeds from temperature time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luce, C.; Tonina, D.; Gariglio, F. P.; Applebee, R.

2012-12-01

Differences in the diurnal variations of temperature at different depths in streambed sediments are commonly used for estimating vertical fluxes of water in the streambed. We applied spatial and temporal rescaling of the advection-diffusion equation to derive two new relationships that greatly extend the kinds of information that can be derived from streambed temperature measurements. The first equation provides a direct estimate of the Peclet number from the amplitude decay and phase delay information. The analytical equation is explicit (e.g. no numerical root-finding is necessary), and invertable. The thermal front velocity can be estimated from the Peclet number when the thermal diffusivity is known. The second equation allows for an independent estimate of the thermal diffusivity directly from the amplitude decay and phase delay information. Several improvements are available with the new information. The first equation uses a ratio of the amplitude decay and phase delay information; thus Peclet number calculations are independent of depth. The explicit form also makes it somewhat faster and easier to calculate estimates from a large number of sensors or multiple positions along one sensor. Where current practice requires a priori estimation of streambed thermal diffusivity, the new approach allows an independent calculation, improving precision of estimates. Furthermore, when many measurements are made over space and time, expectations of the spatial correlation and temporal invariance of thermal diffusivity are valuable for validation of measurements. Finally, the closed-form explicit solution allows for direct calculation of propagation of uncertainties in error measurements and parameter estimates, providing insight about error expectations for sensors placed at different depths in different environments as a function of surface temperature variation amplitudes. The improvements are expected to increase the utility of temperature measurement methods for studying groundwater-surface water interactions across space and time scales. We discuss the theoretical implications of the new solutions supported by examples with data for illustration and validation.

Application of Stein and related parametric empirical Bayes estimators to the nuclear plant reliability data system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hill, J.R.; Heger, A.S.; Koen, B.V.

1984-04-01

This report is the result of a preliminary feasibility study of the applicability of Stein and related parametric empirical Bayes (PEB) estimators to the Nuclear Plant Reliability Data System (NPRDS). A new estimator is derived for the means of several independent Poisson distributions with different sampling times. This estimator is applied to data from NPRDS in an attempt to improve failure rate estimation. Theoretical and Monte Carlo results indicate that the new PEB estimator can perform significantly better than the standard maximum likelihood estimator if the estimation of the individual means can be combined through the loss function or throughmore » a parametric class of prior distributions.« less

Geodetic Imaging and Tsunami Modeling of the 2017 Coupled Landslide-Tsunami Event in Karrat Fjord, West Greenland.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barba, M.; Willis, M. J.; Tiampo, K. F.; Lynett, P. J.; Mätzler, E.; Thorsøe, K.; Higman, B. M.; Thompson, J. A.; Morin, P. J.

2017-12-01

We use a combination of geodetic imaging techniques and modelling efforts to examine the June 2017 Karrat Fjord, West Greenland, landslide and tsunami event. Our efforts include analysis of pre-cursor motions extracted from Sentinal SAR interferometry that we improved with high-resolution Digital Surface Models derived from commercial imagery and geo-coded Structure from Motion analyses. We produce well constrained estimates of landslide volume through DSM differencing by improving the ArcticDEM coverage of the region, and provide modeled tsunami run-up estimates at villages around the region, constrained with in-situ observations provided by the Greenlandic authorities. Estimates of run-up at unoccupied coasts are derived using a blend of high resolution imagery and elevation models. We further detail post-failure slope stability for areas of interest around the Karrat Fjord region. Warming trends in the region from model and satellite analysis are combined with optical imagery to ascertain whether the influence of melting permafrost and the formation of small springs on a slight bench on the mountainside that eventually failed can be used as indicators of future events.

Progress in Turbulence Detection via GNSS Occultation Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cornman, L. B.; Goodrich, R. K.; Axelrad, P.; Barlow, E.

2012-01-01

The increased availability of radio occultation (RO) data offers the ability to detect and study turbulence in the Earth's atmosphere. An analysis of how RO data can be used to determine the strength and location of turbulent regions is presented. This includes the derivation of a model for the power spectrum of the log-amplitude and phase fluctuations of the permittivity (or index of refraction) field. The bulk of the paper is then concerned with the estimation of the model parameters. Parameter estimators are introduced and some of their statistical properties are studied. These estimators are then applied to simulated log-amplitude RO signals. This includes the analysis of global statistics derived from a large number of realizations, as well as case studies that illustrate various specific aspects of the problem. Improvements to the basic estimation methods are discussed, and their beneficial properties are illustrated. The estimation techniques are then applied to real occultation data. Only two cases are presented, but they illustrate some of the salient features inherent in real data.

Improving estimation of flight altitude in wildlife telemetry studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poessel, Sharon; Duerr, Adam E.; Hall, Jonathan C.; Braham, Melissa A.; Katzner, Todd

2018-01-01

Altitude measurements from wildlife tracking devices, combined with elevation data, are commonly used to estimate the flight altitude of volant animals. However, these data often include measurement error. Understanding this error may improve estimation of flight altitude and benefit applied ecology.There are a number of different approaches that have been used to address this measurement error. These include filtering based on GPS data, filtering based on behaviour of the study species, and use of state-space models to correct measurement error. The effectiveness of these approaches is highly variable.Recent studies have based inference of flight altitude on misunderstandings about avian natural history and technical or analytical tools. In this Commentary, we discuss these misunderstandings and suggest alternative strategies both to resolve some of these issues and to improve estimation of flight altitude. These strategies also can be applied to other measures derived from telemetry data.Synthesis and applications. Our Commentary is intended to clarify and improve upon some of the assumptions made when estimating flight altitude and, more broadly, when using GPS telemetry data. We also suggest best practices for identifying flight behaviour, addressing GPS error, and using flight altitudes to estimate collision risk with anthropogenic structures. Addressing the issues we describe would help improve estimates of flight altitude and advance understanding of the treatment of error in wildlife telemetry studies.

Applying Lidar and High-Resolution Multispectral Imagery for Improved Quantification and Mapping of Tundra Vegetation Structure and Distribution in the Alaskan Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greaves, Heather E.

Climate change is disproportionately affecting high northern latitudes, and the extreme temperatures, remoteness, and sheer size of the Arctic tundra biome have always posed challenges that make application of remote sensing technology especially appropriate. Advances in high-resolution remote sensing continually improve our ability to measure characteristics of tundra vegetation communities, which have been difficult to characterize previously due to their low stature and their distribution in complex, heterogeneous patches across large landscapes. In this work, I apply terrestrial lidar, airborne lidar, and high-resolution airborne multispectral imagery to estimate tundra vegetation characteristics for a research area near Toolik Lake, Alaska. Initially, I explored methods for estimating shrub biomass from terrestrial lidar point clouds, finding that a canopy-volume based algorithm performed best. Although shrub biomass estimates derived from airborne lidar data were less accurate than those from terrestrial lidar data, algorithm parameters used to derive biomass estimates were similar for both datasets. Additionally, I found that airborne lidar-based shrub biomass estimates were just as accurate whether calibrated against terrestrial lidar data or harvested shrub biomass--suggesting that terrestrial lidar potentially could replace destructive biomass harvest. Along with smoothed Normalized Differenced Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from airborne imagery, airborne lidar-derived canopy volume was an important predictor in a Random Forest model trained to estimate shrub biomass across the 12.5 km2 covered by our lidar and imagery data. The resulting 0.80 m resolution shrub biomass maps should provide important benchmarks for change detection in the Toolik area, especially as deciduous shrubs continue to expand in tundra regions. Finally, I applied 33 lidar- and imagery-derived predictor layers in a validated Random Forest modeling approach to map vegetation community distribution at 20 cm resolution across the data collection area, creating maps that will enable validation of coarser maps, as well as study of fine-scale ecological processes in the area. These projects have pushed the limits of what can be accomplished for vegetation mapping using airborne remote sensing in a challenging but important region; it is my hope that the methods explored here will illuminate potential paths forward as landscapes and technologies inevitably continue to change.

North American CO2 fluxes for 2007-2015 from NOAA's CarbonTracker-Lagrange Regional Inverse Modeling Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews, A. E.; Hu, L.; Thoning, K. W.; Nehrkorn, T.; Mountain, M. E.; Jacobson, A. R.; Michalak, A.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Sweeney, C.; Worthy, D. E. J.; Miller, J. B.; Fischer, M. L.; Biraud, S.; van der Velde, I. R.; Basu, S.; Tans, P. P.

2017-12-01

CarbonTracker-Lagrange (CT-L) is a new high-resolution regional inverse modeling system for improved estimation of North American CO2 fluxes. CT-L uses footprints from the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model driven by high-resolution (10 to 30 km) meteorological fields from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We performed a suite of synthetic-data experiments to evaluate a variety of inversion configurations, including (1) solving for scaling factors to an a priori flux versus additive corrections, (2) solving for fluxes at 3-hrly resolution versus at coarser temporal resolution, (3) solving for fluxes at 1o × 1o resolution versus at large eco-regional scales. Our framework explicitly and objectively solves for the optimal solution with a full error covariance matrix with maximum likelihood estimation, thereby enabling rigorous uncertainty estimates for the derived fluxes. In the synthetic-data inversions, we find that solving for weekly scaling factors of a priori Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) at 1o × 1o resolution with optimization of diurnal cycles of CO2 fluxes yields faithful retrieval of the specified "true" fluxes as those solved at 3-hrly resolution. In contrast, a scheme that does not allow for optimization of diurnal cycles of CO2 fluxes suffered from larger aggregation errors. We then applied the optimal inversion setup to estimate North American fluxes for 2007-2015 using real atmospheric CO2 observations, multiple prior estimates of NEE, and multiple boundary values estimated from the NOAA's global Eulerian CarbonTracker (CarbonTracker) and from an empirical approach. Our derived North American land CO2 fluxes show larger seasonal amplitude than those estimated from the CarbonTracker, removing seasonal biases in the CarbonTracker's simulated CO2 mole fractions. Independent evaluations using in-situ CO2 eddy covariance flux measurements and independent aircraft profiles also suggest an improved estimation on North American CO2 fluxes from CT-L. Furthermore, our derived CO2 flux anomalies over North America corresponding to the 2012 North American drought and the 2015 El Niño are larger than derived by the CarbonTracker. They also indicate different responses of ecosystems to those anomalous climatic events.

Results From F-18B Stability and Control Parameter Estimation Flight Tests at High Dynamic Pressures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moes, Timothy R.; Noffz, Gregory K.; Iliff, Kenneth W.

2000-01-01

A maximum-likelihood output-error parameter estimation technique has been used to obtain stability and control derivatives for the NASA F-18B Systems Research Aircraft. This work has been performed to support flight testing of the active aeroelastic wing (AAW) F-18A project. The goal of this research is to obtain baseline F-18 stability and control derivatives that will form the foundation of the aerodynamic model for the AAW aircraft configuration. Flight data have been obtained at Mach numbers between 0.85 and 1.30 and at dynamic pressures ranging between 600 and 1500 lbf/sq ft. At each test condition, longitudinal and lateral-directional doublets have been performed using an automated onboard excitation system. The doublet maneuver consists of a series of single-surface inputs so that individual control-surface motions cannot be correlated with other control-surface motions. Flight test results have shown that several stability and control derivatives are significantly different than prescribed by the F-18B aerodynamic model. This report defines the parameter estimation technique used, presents stability and control derivative results, compares the results with predictions based on the current F-18B aerodynamic model, and shows improvements to the nonlinear simulation using updated derivatives from this research.

The cost-effectiveness of physician staffed Helicopter Emergency Medical Service (HEMS) transport to a major trauma centre in NSW, Australia.

PubMed

Taylor, Colman; Jan, Stephen; Curtis, Kate; Tzannes, Alex; Li, Qiang; Palmer, Cameron; Dickson, Cara; Myburgh, John

2012-11-01

Helicopter Emergency Medical Services (HEMS) are highly resource-intensive facilities that are well established as part of trauma systems in many high-income countries. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of a physician-staffed HEMS intervention in combination with treatment at a major trauma centre versus ground ambulance or indirect transport (via a referral hospital) in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Cost and effectiveness estimates were derived from a cohort of trauma patients arriving at St George Hospital in NSW, Australia during an 11-year period. Adjusted estimates of in-hospital mortality were derived using logistic regression and adjusted hospital costs were estimated through a general linear model incorporating a gamma distribution and log link. These estimates along with other assumptions were incorporated into a Markov model with an annual cycle length to estimate a cost per life saved and a cost per life-year saved at one year and over a patient's lifetime respectively in three patient groups (all patients; patients with serious injury [Injury Severity Score>12]; patients with traumatic brain injury [TBI]). Results showed HEMS to be more costly but more effective at reducing in-hospital mortality leading to a cost per life saved of $1,566,379, $533,781 and $519,787 in all patients, patients with serious injury and patients with TBI respectively. When modelled over a patient's lifetime, the improved mortality associated with HEMS led to a cost per life year saved of $96,524, $50,035 and $49,159 in the three patient groups respectively. Sensitivity analyses revealed a higher probability of HEMS being cost-effective in patients with serious injury and TBI. Our investigation confirms a HEMS intervention is associated with improved mortality in trauma patients, especially in patients with serious injury and TBI. The improved benefit of HEMS in patients with serious injury and TBI leads to improved estimated cost-effectiveness. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biomass burning fuel consumption dynamics in the tropics and subtropics assessed from satellite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andela, Niels; van der Werf, Guido R.; Kaiser, Johannes W.; van Leeuwen, Thijs T.; Wooster, Martin J.; Lehmann, Caroline E. R.

2016-06-01

Landscape fires occur on a large scale in (sub)tropical savannas and grasslands, affecting ecosystem dynamics, regional air quality and concentrations of atmospheric trace gasses. Fuel consumption per unit of area burned is an important but poorly constrained parameter in fire emission modelling. We combined satellite-derived burned area with fire radiative power (FRP) data to derive fuel consumption estimates for land cover types with low tree cover in South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Australia. We developed a new approach to estimate fuel consumption, based on FRP data from the polar-orbiting Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the geostationary Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) in combination with MODIS burned-area estimates. The fuel consumption estimates based on the geostationary and polar-orbiting instruments showed good agreement in terms of spatial patterns. We used field measurements of fuel consumption to constrain our results, but the large variation in fuel consumption in both space and time complicated this comparison and absolute fuel consumption estimates remained more uncertain. Spatial patterns in fuel consumption could be partly explained by vegetation productivity and fire return periods. In South America, most fires occurred in savannas with relatively long fire return periods, resulting in comparatively high fuel consumption as opposed to the more frequently burning savannas in Sub-Saharan Africa. Strikingly, we found the infrequently burning interior of Australia to have higher fuel consumption than the more productive but frequently burning savannas in northern Australia. Vegetation type also played an important role in explaining the distribution of fuel consumption, by affecting both fuel build-up rates and fire return periods. Hummock grasslands, which were responsible for a large share of Australian biomass burning, showed larger fuel build-up rates than equally productive grasslands in Africa, although this effect might have been partially driven by the presence of grazers in Africa or differences in landscape management. Finally, land management in the form of deforestation and agriculture also considerably affected fuel consumption regionally. We conclude that combining FRP and burned-area estimates, calibrated against field measurements, is a promising approach in deriving quantitative estimates of fuel consumption. Satellite-derived fuel consumption estimates may both challenge our current understanding of spatiotemporal fuel consumption dynamics and serve as reference datasets to improve biogeochemical modelling approaches. Future field studies especially designed to validate satellite-based products, or airborne remote sensing, may further improve confidence in the absolute fuel consumption estimates which are quickly becoming the weakest link in fire emission estimates.

REVERBERATION AND PHOTOIONIZATION ESTIMATES OF THE BROAD-LINE REGION RADIUS IN LOW-z QUASARS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Negrete, C. Alenka; Dultzin, Deborah; Marziani, Paola

2013-07-01

Black hole mass estimation in quasars, especially at high redshift, involves the use of single-epoch spectra with signal-to-noise ratio and resolution that permit accurate measurement of the width of a broad line assumed to be a reliable virial estimator. Coupled with an estimate of the radius of the broad-line region (BLR) this yields the black hole mass M{sub BH}. The radius of the BLR may be inferred from an extrapolation of the correlation between source luminosity and reverberation-derived r{sub BLR} measures (the so-called Kaspi relation involving about 60 low-z sources). We are exploring a different method for estimating r{sub BLR}more » directly from inferred physical conditions in the BLR of each source. We report here on a comparison of r{sub BLR} estimates that come from our method and from reverberation mapping. Our ''photoionization'' method employs diagnostic line intensity ratios in the rest-frame range 1400-2000 A (Al III {lambda}1860/Si III] {lambda}1892, C IV {lambda}1549/Al III {lambda}1860) that enable derivation of the product of density and ionization parameter with the BLR distance derived from the definition of the ionization parameter. We find good agreement between our estimates of the density, ionization parameter, and r{sub BLR} and those from reverberation mapping. We suggest empirical corrections to improve the agreement between individual photoionization-derived r{sub BLR} values and those obtained from reverberation mapping. The results in this paper can be exploited to estimate M{sub BH} for large samples of high-z quasars using an appropriate virial broadening estimator. We show that the width of the UV intermediate emission lines are consistent with the width of H{beta}, thereby providing a reliable virial broadening estimator that can be measured in large samples of high-z quasars.« less

A Bayesian kriging approach for blending satellite and ground precipitation observations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Verdin, Andrew P.; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Kleiber, William; Funk, Christopher C.

2015-01-01

Drought and flood management practices require accurate estimates of precipitation. Gauge observations, however, are often sparse in regions with complicated terrain, clustered in valleys, and of poor quality. Consequently, the spatial extent of wet events is poorly represented. Satellite-derived precipitation data are an attractive alternative, though they tend to underestimate the magnitude of wet events due to their dependency on retrieval algorithms and the indirect relationship between satellite infrared observations and precipitation intensities. Here we offer a Bayesian kriging approach for blending precipitation gauge data and the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation satellite-derived precipitation estimates for Central America, Colombia, and Venezuela. First, the gauge observations are modeled as a linear function of satellite-derived estimates and any number of other variables—for this research we include elevation. Prior distributions are defined for all model parameters and the posterior distributions are obtained simultaneously via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The posterior distributions of these parameters are required for spatial estimation, and thus are obtained prior to implementing the spatial kriging model. This functional framework is applied to model parameters obtained by sampling from the posterior distributions, and the residuals of the linear model are subject to a spatial kriging model. Consequently, the posterior distributions and uncertainties of the blended precipitation estimates are obtained. We demonstrate this method by applying it to pentadal and monthly total precipitation fields during 2009. The model's performance and its inherent ability to capture wet events are investigated. We show that this blending method significantly improves upon the satellite-derived estimates and is also competitive in its ability to represent wet events. This procedure also provides a means to estimate a full conditional distribution of the “true” observed precipitation value at each grid cell.

On the asymptotic improvement of supervised learning by utilizing additional unlabeled samples - Normal mixture density case

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shahshahani, Behzad M.; Landgrebe, David A.

1992-01-01

The effect of additional unlabeled samples in improving the supervised learning process is studied in this paper. Three learning processes. supervised, unsupervised, and combined supervised-unsupervised, are compared by studying the asymptotic behavior of the estimates obtained under each process. Upper and lower bounds on the asymptotic covariance matrices are derived. It is shown that under a normal mixture density assumption for the probability density function of the feature space, the combined supervised-unsupervised learning is always superior to the supervised learning in achieving better estimates. Experimental results are provided to verify the theoretical concepts.

Improving Global Gross Primary Productivity Estimates by Computing Optimum Light Use Efficiencies Using Flux Tower Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madani, Nima; Kimball, John S.; Running, Steven W.

2017-11-01

In the light use efficiency (LUE) approach of estimating the gross primary productivity (GPP), plant productivity is linearly related to absorbed photosynthetically active radiation assuming that plants absorb and convert solar energy into biomass within a maximum LUE (LUEmax) rate, which is assumed to vary conservatively within a given biome type. However, it has been shown that photosynthetic efficiency can vary within biomes. In this study, we used 149 global CO2 flux towers to derive the optimum LUE (LUEopt) under prevailing climate conditions for each tower location, stratified according to model training and test sites. Unlike LUEmax, LUEopt varies according to heterogeneous landscape characteristics and species traits. The LUEopt data showed large spatial variability within and between biome types, so that a simple biome classification explained only 29% of LUEopt variability over 95 global tower training sites. The use of explanatory variables in a mixed effect regression model explained 62.2% of the spatial variability in tower LUEopt data. The resulting regression model was used for global extrapolation of the LUEopt data and GPP estimation. The GPP estimated using the new LUEopt map showed significant improvement relative to global tower data, including a 15% R2 increase and 34% root-mean-square error reduction relative to baseline GPP calculations derived from biome-specific LUEmax constants. The new global LUEopt map is expected to improve the performance of LUE-based GPP algorithms for better assessment and monitoring of global terrestrial productivity and carbon dynamics.

Improving Hydrological Simulations by Incorporating GRACE Data for Parameter Calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, P.

2017-12-01

Hydrological model parameters are commonly calibrated by observed streamflow data. This calibration strategy is questioned when the modeled hydrological variables of interest are not limited to streamflow. Well-performed streamflow simulations do not guarantee the reliable reproduction of other hydrological variables. One of the reasons is that hydrological model parameters are not reasonably identified. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite-derived total water storage change (TWSC) data provide an opportunity to constrain hydrological model parameterizations in combination with streamflow observations. We constructed a multi-objective calibration scheme based on GRACE-derived TWSC and streamflow observations, with the aim of improving the parameterizations of hydrological models. The multi-objective calibration scheme was compared with the traditional single-objective calibration scheme, which is based only on streamflow observations. Two monthly hydrological models were employed on 22 Chinese catchments with different hydroclimatic conditions. The model evaluation was performed using observed streamflows, GRACE-derived TWSC, and evapotranspiraiton (ET) estimates from flux towers and from the water balance approach. Results showed that the multi-objective calibration provided more reliable TWSC and ET simulations without significant deterioration in the accuracy of streamflow simulations than the single-objective calibration. In addition, the improvements of TWSC and ET simulations were more significant in relatively dry catchments than in relatively wet catchments. This study highlights the importance of including additional constraints besides streamflow observations in the parameter estimation to improve the performances of hydrological models.

Improving Alpine Streamflow Simulations by Incorporation of Evapotranspiration and Soil Moisture Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobin, K. J.; Bennett, M. E.

2017-12-01

Over the last decade autocalibration routines have become commonplace in watershed modeling. This approach is most often used to simulate a streamflow at a basin's outlet. In alpine settings spring/early summer snowmelt is by far the dominant signal in this system. Therefore, there is great potential for a modeled watershed to underperform during other times of the year. This tendency has been noted in many prior studies. In this work, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was autocalibrated with the SUFI-2 routine. Two mountainous watersheds from Idaho and Utah were examined. In this study, the basins were calibrated on a monthly satellite based on the MODIS 16A2 product. The gridded MODIS product was ideally suited to derive an estimate of ET on a subbasin basis. Soil moisture data was derived from extrapolation of in situ sites from the SNOwpack TELemetry (SNOTEL) network. Previous work has indicated that in situ soil moisture can be applied to derive an estimate at a significant distance (>30 km) away from the in situ site. Optimized ET and soil moisture parameter values were then applied to streamflow simulations. Preliminary results indicate improved streamflow performance both during calibration (2005-2011) and validation (2012-2014) periods. Streamflow performance was monitored with not only standard objective metrics (bias and Nash Sutcliffe coefficients) but also improved baseflow accuracy, demonstrating the utility of this approach in improving watershed modeling fidelity outside the main snowmelt season.

Identifying forest patterns from space to explore dynamics across the circumpolar boreal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montesano, P. M.; Neigh, C. S. R.; Feng, M.; Channan, S.; Sexton, J. O.; Wagner, W.; Wooten, M.; Poulter, B.; Wang, L.

2017-12-01

A variety of forest patterns are the result of interactions between broad-scale climate and local-scale site factors and history across the northernmost portion of the circumpolar boreal. Patterns of forest extent, height, and cover help describe forest structure transitions that influence future and reflect past dynamics. Coarse spaceborne observations lack structural detail at forest transitions, which inhibits understanding of these dynamics. We highlight: (1) the use of sub-meter spaceborne stereogrammetry for deriving structure estimates in boreal forests; (2) its potential to complement other spaceborne estimates of forest structure at critical scales; and (3) the potential of these sub-meter and other Landsat-derived structure estimates for improving understanding of broad-scale boreal dynamics such as carbon flux and albedo, capturing the spatial variability of the boreal-tundra biome boundary, and assessing its potential for change.

Bias Reduction and Filter Convergence for Long Range Stereo

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sibley, Gabe; Matthies, Larry; Sukhatme, Gaurav

2005-01-01

We are concerned here with improving long range stereo by filtering image sequences. Traditionally, measurement errors from stereo camera systems have been approximated as 3-D Gaussians, where the mean is derived by triangulation and the covariance by linearized error propagation. However, there are two problems that arise when filtering such 3-D measurements. First, stereo triangulation suffers from a range dependent statistical bias; when filtering this leads to over-estimating the true range. Second, filtering 3-D measurements derived via linearized error propagation leads to apparent filter divergence; the estimator is biased to under-estimate range. To address the first issue, we examine the statistical behavior of stereo triangulation and show how to remove the bias by series expansion. The solution to the second problem is to filter with image coordinates as measurements instead of triangulated 3-D coordinates.

Age Estimation of African Lions Panthera leo by Ratio of Tooth Areas

PubMed Central

Ikanda, Dennis; Ferrante, Luigi; Chardonnet, Philippe; Mesochina, Pascal; Cameriere, Roberto

2016-01-01

Improved age estimation of African lions Panthera leo is needed to address a number of pressing conservation issues. Here we present a formula for estimating lion age to within six months of known age based on measuring the extent of pulp closure from X-rays, or Ratio Of tooth AReas (ROAR). Derived from measurements taken from lions aged 3–13 years for which exact ages were known, the formula explains 92% of the total variance. The method of calculating the pulp/tooth area ratio, which has been used extensively in forensic science, is novel in the study of lion aging. As a quantifiable measure, ROAR offers improved lion age estimates for population modeling and investigations of age-related mortality, and may assist national and international wildlife authorities in judging compliance with regulatory measures involving age. PMID:27089506

Age Estimation of African Lions Panthera leo by Ratio of Tooth Areas.

PubMed

White, Paula A; Ikanda, Dennis; Ferrante, Luigi; Chardonnet, Philippe; Mesochina, Pascal; Cameriere, Roberto

2016-01-01

Improved age estimation of African lions Panthera leo is needed to address a number of pressing conservation issues. Here we present a formula for estimating lion age to within six months of known age based on measuring the extent of pulp closure from X-rays, or Ratio Of tooth AReas (ROAR). Derived from measurements taken from lions aged 3-13 years for which exact ages were known, the formula explains 92% of the total variance. The method of calculating the pulp/tooth area ratio, which has been used extensively in forensic science, is novel in the study of lion aging. As a quantifiable measure, ROAR offers improved lion age estimates for population modeling and investigations of age-related mortality, and may assist national and international wildlife authorities in judging compliance with regulatory measures involving age.

Model improvements and validation of TerraSAR-X precise orbit determination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hackel, S.; Montenbruck, O.; Steigenberger, P.; Balss, U.; Gisinger, C.; Eineder, M.

2017-05-01

The radar imaging satellite mission TerraSAR-X requires precisely determined satellite orbits for validating geodetic remote sensing techniques. Since the achieved quality of the operationally derived, reduced-dynamic (RD) orbit solutions limits the capabilities of the synthetic aperture radar (SAR) validation, an effort is made to improve the estimated orbit solutions. This paper discusses the benefits of refined dynamical models on orbit accuracy as well as estimated empirical accelerations and compares different dynamic models in a RD orbit determination. Modeling aspects discussed in the paper include the use of a macro-model for drag and radiation pressure computation, the use of high-quality atmospheric density and wind models as well as the benefit of high-fidelity gravity and ocean tide models. The Sun-synchronous dusk-dawn orbit geometry of TerraSAR-X results in a particular high correlation of solar radiation pressure modeling and estimated normal-direction positions. Furthermore, this mission offers a unique suite of independent sensors for orbit validation. Several parameters serve as quality indicators for the estimated satellite orbit solutions. These include the magnitude of the estimated empirical accelerations, satellite laser ranging (SLR) residuals, and SLR-based orbit corrections. Moreover, the radargrammetric distance measurements of the SAR instrument are selected for assessing the quality of the orbit solutions and compared to the SLR analysis. The use of high-fidelity satellite dynamics models in the RD approach is shown to clearly improve the orbit quality compared to simplified models and loosely constrained empirical accelerations. The estimated empirical accelerations are substantially reduced by 30% in tangential direction when working with the refined dynamical models. Likewise the SLR residuals are reduced from -3 ± 17 to 2 ± 13 mm, and the SLR-derived normal-direction position corrections are reduced from 15 to 6 mm, obtained from the 2012-2014 period. The radar range bias is reduced from -10.3 to -6.1 mm with the updated orbit solutions, which coincides with the reduced standard deviation of the SLR residuals. The improvements are mainly driven by the satellite macro-model for the purpose of solar radiation pressure modeling, improved atmospheric density models, and the use of state-of-the-art gravity field models.

Scent Lure Effect on Camera-Trap Based Leopard Density Estimates

PubMed Central

Braczkowski, Alexander Richard; Balme, Guy Andrew; Dickman, Amy; Fattebert, Julien; Johnson, Paul; Dickerson, Tristan; Macdonald, David Whyte; Hunter, Luke

2016-01-01

Density estimates for large carnivores derived from camera surveys often have wide confidence intervals due to low detection rates. Such estimates are of limited value to authorities, which require precise population estimates to inform conservation strategies. Using lures can potentially increase detection, improving the precision of estimates. However, by altering the spatio-temporal patterning of individuals across the camera array, lures may violate closure, a fundamental assumption of capture-recapture. Here, we test the effect of scent lures on the precision and veracity of density estimates derived from camera-trap surveys of a protected African leopard population. We undertook two surveys (a ‘control’ and ‘treatment’ survey) on Phinda Game Reserve, South Africa. Survey design remained consistent except a scent lure was applied at camera-trap stations during the treatment survey. Lures did not affect the maximum movement distances (p = 0.96) or temporal activity of female (p = 0.12) or male leopards (p = 0.79), and the assumption of geographic closure was met for both surveys (p >0.05). The numbers of photographic captures were also similar for control and treatment surveys (p = 0.90). Accordingly, density estimates were comparable between surveys (although estimates derived using non-spatial methods (7.28–9.28 leopards/100km2) were considerably higher than estimates from spatially-explicit methods (3.40–3.65 leopards/100km2). The precision of estimates from the control and treatment surveys, were also comparable and this applied to both non-spatial and spatial methods of estimation. Our findings suggest that at least in the context of leopard research in productive habitats, the use of lures is not warranted. PMID:27050816

A modified integrated NDVI for improving estimates of terrestrial net primary production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Running, Steven W.

1990-01-01

Logic is presented for a time-integrated NDVI that is modified by an AVHRR derived surface evaporation resistance factor sigma, and truncated by temperatures that cause plant dormancy, to improve environmental sensitivity. With this approach, NDVI observed during subfreezing temperatures is not integrated. Water stress-related impairment in plant activity is incorporated by reducing the effective NDVI at each integration with sigma, which is derived from the slope of the surface temperature to NDVI ratio for climatically similar zones of the scene. A comparison of surface resistance before and after an extended drought period for a 1200 sq km region of coniferous forest in Montana is presented.

Warp-averaging event-related potentials.

PubMed

Wang, K; Begleiter, H; Porjesz, B

2001-10-01

To align the repeated single trials of the event-related potential (ERP) in order to get an improved estimate of the ERP. A new implementation of the dynamic time warping is applied to compute a warp-average of the single trials. The trilinear modeling method is applied to filter the single trials prior to alignment. Alignment is based on normalized signals and their estimated derivatives. These features reduce the misalignment due to aligning the random alpha waves, explaining amplitude differences in latency differences, or the seemingly small amplitudes of some components. Simulations and applications to visually evoked potentials show significant improvement over some commonly used methods. The new implementation of the dynamic time warping can be used to align the major components (P1, N1, P2, N2, P3) of the repeated single trials. The average of the aligned single trials is an improved estimate of the ERP. This could lead to more accurate results in subsequent analysis.

Measuring populations to improve vaccination coverage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bharti, Nita; Djibo, Ali; Tatem, Andrew J.; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Ferrari, Matthew J.

2016-10-01

In low-income settings, vaccination campaigns supplement routine immunization but often fail to achieve coverage goals due to uncertainty about target population size and distribution. Accurate, updated estimates of target populations are rare but critical; short-term fluctuations can greatly impact population size and susceptibility. We use satellite imagery to quantify population fluctuations and the coverage achieved by a measles outbreak response vaccination campaign in urban Niger and compare campaign estimates to measurements from a post-campaign survey. Vaccine coverage was overestimated because the campaign underestimated resident numbers and seasonal migration further increased the target population. We combine satellite-derived measurements of fluctuations in population distribution with high-resolution measles case reports to develop a dynamic model that illustrates the potential improvement in vaccination campaign coverage if planners account for predictable population fluctuations. Satellite imagery can improve retrospective estimates of vaccination campaign impact and future campaign planning by synchronizing interventions with predictable population fluxes.

Measuring populations to improve vaccination coverage

PubMed Central

Bharti, Nita; Djibo, Ali; Tatem, Andrew J.; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Ferrari, Matthew J.

2016-01-01

In low-income settings, vaccination campaigns supplement routine immunization but often fail to achieve coverage goals due to uncertainty about target population size and distribution. Accurate, updated estimates of target populations are rare but critical; short-term fluctuations can greatly impact population size and susceptibility. We use satellite imagery to quantify population fluctuations and the coverage achieved by a measles outbreak response vaccination campaign in urban Niger and compare campaign estimates to measurements from a post-campaign survey. Vaccine coverage was overestimated because the campaign underestimated resident numbers and seasonal migration further increased the target population. We combine satellite-derived measurements of fluctuations in population distribution with high-resolution measles case reports to develop a dynamic model that illustrates the potential improvement in vaccination campaign coverage if planners account for predictable population fluctuations. Satellite imagery can improve retrospective estimates of vaccination campaign impact and future campaign planning by synchronizing interventions with predictable population fluxes. PMID:27703191

A Fresh Start for Flood Estimation in Ungauged Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, R. A.

2017-12-01

The two standard methods for flood estimation in ungauged basins, regression-based statistical models and rainfall-runoff models using a design rainfall event, have survived relatively unchanged as the methods of choice for more than 40 years. Their technical implementation has developed greatly, but the models' representation of hydrological processes has not, despite a large volume of hydrological research. I suggest it is time to introduce more hydrology into flood estimation. The reliability of the current methods can be unsatisfactory. For example, despite the UK's relatively straightforward hydrology, regression estimates of the index flood are uncertain by +/- a factor of two (for a 95% confidence interval), an impractically large uncertainty for design. The standard error of rainfall-runoff model estimates is not usually known, but available assessments indicate poorer reliability than statistical methods. There is a practical need for improved reliability in flood estimation. Two promising candidates to supersede the existing methods are (i) continuous simulation by rainfall-runoff modelling and (ii) event-based derived distribution methods. The main challenge with continuous simulation methods in ungauged basins is to specify the model structure and parameter values, when calibration data are not available. This has been an active area of research for more than a decade, and this activity is likely to continue. The major challenges for the derived distribution method in ungauged catchments include not only the correct specification of model structure and parameter values, but also antecedent conditions (e.g. seasonal soil water balance). However, a much smaller community of researchers are active in developing or applying the derived distribution approach, and as a result slower progress is being made. A change in needed: surely we have learned enough about hydrology in the last 40 years that we can make a practical hydrological advance on our methods for flood estimation! A shift to new methods for flood estimation will not be taken lightly by practitioners. However, the standard for change is clear - can we develop new methods which give significant improvements in reliability over those existing methods which are demonstrably unsatisfactory?

Evaluating Childhood Vaccination Coverage of NIP Vaccines: Coverage Survey versus Zhejiang Provincial Immunization Information System.

PubMed

Hu, Yu; Chen, Yaping

2017-07-11

Vaccination coverage in Zhejiang province, east China, is evaluated through repeated coverage surveys. The Zhejiang provincial immunization information system (ZJIIS) was established in 2004 with links to all immunization clinics. ZJIIS has become an alternative to quickly assess the vaccination coverage. To assess the current completeness and accuracy on the vaccination coverage derived from ZJIIS, we compared the estimates from ZJIIS with the estimates from the most recent provincial coverage survey in 2014, which combined interview data with verified data from ZJIIS. Of the enrolled 2772 children in the 2014 provincial survey, the proportions of children with vaccination cards and registered in ZJIIS were 94.0% and 87.4%, respectively. Coverage estimates from ZJIIS were systematically higher than the corresponding estimates obtained through the survey, with a mean difference of 4.5%. Of the vaccination doses registered in ZJIIS, 16.7% differed from the date recorded in the corresponding vaccination cards. Under-registration in ZJIIS significantly influenced the coverage estimates derived from ZJIIS. Therefore, periodic coverage surveys currently provide more complete and reliable results than the estimates based on ZJIIS alone. However, further improvement of completeness and accuracy of ZJIIS will likely allow more reliable and timely estimates in future.

Prospects for UT1 Measurements from VLBI Intensive Sessions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boehm, Johannes; Nilsson, Tobias; Schuh, Harald

2010-01-01

Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) Intensives are one-hour single baseline sessions to provide Universal Time (UT1) in near real-time up to a delay of three days if a site is not e-transferring the observational data. Due to the importance of UT1 estimates for the prediction of Earth orientation parameters, as well as any kind of navigation on Earth or in space, there is not only the need to improve the timeliness of the results but also their accuracy. We identify the asymmetry of the tropospheric delays as the major error source, and we provide two strategies to improve the results, in particular of those Intensives which include the station Tsukuba in Japan with its large tropospheric variation. We find an improvement when (1) using ray-traced delays from a numerical weather model, and (2) when estimating tropospheric gradients within the analysis of Intensive sessions. The improvement is shown in terms of reduction of rms of length-of-day estimates w.r.t. those derived from Global Positioning System observations

Improvements in aircraft extraction programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balakrishnan, A. V.; Maine, R. E.

1976-01-01

Flight data from an F-8 Corsair and a Cessna 172 was analyzed to demonstrate specific improvements in the LRC parameter extraction computer program. The Cramer-Rao bounds were shown to provide a satisfactory relative measure of goodness of parameter estimates. It was not used as an absolute measure due to an inherent uncertainty within a multiplicative factor, traced in turn to the uncertainty in the noise bandwidth in the statistical theory of parameter estimation. The measure was also derived on an entirely nonstatistical basis, yielding thereby also an interpretation of the significance of off-diagonal terms in the dispersion matrix. The distinction between coefficients as linear and non-linear was shown to be important in its implication to a recommended order of parameter iteration. Techniques of improving convergence generally, were developed, and tested out on flight data. In particular, an easily implemented modification incorporating a gradient search was shown to improve initial estimates and thus remove a common cause for lack of convergence.

A Study of Global Cirrus Cloud Morphology with AIRS Cloud-clear Radiances (CCRs)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Dong L.; Gong, Jie

2012-01-01

Version 6 (V6) AIRS cloud-clear radiances (CCR) are used to derive cloud-induced radiance (Tcir=Tb-CCR) at the infrared frequencies of weighting functions peaked in the middle troposphere. The significantly improved V 6 CCR product allows a more accurate estimation of the expected clear-sky radiance as if clouds are absent. In the case where strong cloud scattering is present, the CCR becomes unreliable, which is reflected by its estimated uncertainty, and interpolation is employed to replace this CCR value. We find that Tcir derived from this CCR method are much better than other methods and detect more clouds in the upper and lower troposphere as well as in the polar regions where cloud detection is particularly challenging. The cloud morphology derived from the V6 test month, as well as some artifacts, will be shown.

Improved methods for estimating local terrestrial water dynamics from GRACE in the Northern High Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seyoum, Wondwosen M.; Milewski, Adam M.

2017-12-01

Investigating terrestrial water cycle dynamics is vital for understanding the recent climatic variability and human impacts in the hydrologic cycle. In this study, a downscaling approach was developed and tested, to improve the applicability of terrestrial water storage (TWS) anomaly data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission for understanding local terrestrial water cycle dynamics in the Northern High Plains region. A non-parametric, artificial neural network (ANN)-based model, was utilized to downscale GRACE data by integrating it with hydrological variables (e.g. soil moisture) derived from satellite and land surface model data. The downscaling model, constructed through calibration and sensitivity analysis, was used to estimate TWS anomaly for watersheds ranging from 5000 to 20,000 km2 in the study area. The downscaled water storage anomaly data were evaluated using water storage data derived from an (1) integrated hydrologic model, (2) land surface model (e.g. Noah), and (3) storage anomalies calculated from in-situ groundwater level measurements. Results demonstrate the ANN predicts monthly TWS anomaly within the uncertainty (conservative error estimate = 34 mm) for most of the watersheds. Seasonal derived groundwater storage anomaly (GWSA) from the ANN correlated well (r = ∼0.85) with GWSAs calculated from in-situ groundwater level measurements for a watershed size as small as 6000 km2. ANN downscaled TWSA matches closely with Noah-based TWSA compared to standard GRACE extracted TWSA at a local scale. Moreover, the ANN-downscaled change in TWS replicated the water storage variability resulting from the combined effect of climatic and human impacts (e.g. abstraction). The implications of utilizing finer resolution GRACE data for improving local and regional water resources management decisions and applications are clear, particularly in areas lacking in-situ hydrologic monitoring networks.

Validating SWE reconstruction using Airborne Snow Observatory measurements in the Sierra Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bair, N.; Rittger, K.; Davis, R. E.; Dozier, J.

2015-12-01

The Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO) program offers high resolution estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE) in several small basins across California during the melt season. Primarily, water managers use this information to model snowmelt runoff into reservoirs. Another, and potentially more impactful, use of ASO SWE measurements is in validating and improving satellite-based SWE estimates which can be used in austere regions with no ground-based snow or water measurements, such as Afghanistan's Hindu Kush. Using the entire ASO dataset to date (2013-2015) which is mostly from the Upper Tuolumne basin, but also includes measurements from 2015 in the Kings, Rush Creek, Merced, and Mammoth Lakes basins, we compare ASO measurements to those from a SWE reconstruction method. Briefly, SWE reconstruction involves downscaling energy balance forcings to compute potential melt energy, then using satellite-derived estimates of fractional snow covered area (fSCA) to estimate snow melt from potential melt. The snowpack can then be built in reverse, given a remotely-sensed date of snow disappearance (fSCA=0). Our model has improvements over previous iterations in that it: uses the full energy balance (compared to a modified degree-day) approach, models bulk and surface snow temperatures, accounts for ephemeral snow, and uses a remotely-sensed snow albedo adjusted for impurities. To check that ASO provides accurate snow measurements, we compare fSCA derived from ASO snow depth at 3 m resolution with fSCA from a spectral unmixing algorithm for LandSAT at 30 m, and from binary SCA estimates from Geoeye at 0.5 m from supervised classification. To conclude, we document how our reconstruction model has evolved over the years and provide specific examples where improvements have been made using ASO and other verification sources.

Improving estimates of streamflow characteristics by using Landsat-1 imagery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hollyday, Este F.

1976-01-01

Imagery from the first Earth Resources Technology Satellite (renamed Landsat-1) was used to discriminate physical features of drainage basins in an effort to improve equations used to estimate streamflow characteristics at gaged and ungaged sites. Records of 20 gaged basins in the Delmarva Peninsula of Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia were analyzed for 40 statistical streamflow characteristics. Equations relating these characteristics to basin characteristics were obtained by a technique of multiple linear regression. A control group of equations contains basin characteristics derived from maps. An experimental group of equations contains basin characteristics derived from maps and imagery. Characteristics from imagery were forest, riparian (streambank) vegetation, water, and combined agricultural and urban land use. These basin characteristics were isolated photographically by techniques of film-density discrimination. The area of each characteristic in each basin was measured photometrically. Comparison of equations in the control group with corresponding equations in the experimental group reveals that for 12 out of 40 equations the standard error of estimate was reduced by more than 10 percent. As an example, the standard error of estimate of the equation for the 5-year recurrence-interval flood peak was reduced from 46 to 32 percent. Similarly, the standard error of the equation for the mean monthly flow for September was reduced from 32 to 24 percent, the standard error for the 7-day, 2-year recurrence low flow was reduced from 136 to 102 percent, and the standard error for the 3-day, 2-year flood volume was reduced from 30 to 12 percent. It is concluded that data from Landsat imagery can substantially improve the accuracy of estimates of some streamflow characteristics at sites in the Delmarva Peninsula.

Accuracy of Snow Water Equivalent Estimated From GPS Vertical Displacements: A Synthetic Loading Case Study for Western U.S. Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enzminger, Thomas L.; Small, Eric E.; Borsa, Adrian A.

2018-01-01

GPS monitoring of solid Earth deformation due to surface loading is an independent approach for estimating seasonal changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS). In western United States (WUSA) mountain ranges, snow water equivalent (SWE) is the dominant component of TWS and an essential water resource. While several studies have estimated SWE from GPS-measured vertical displacements, the error associated with this method remains poorly constrained. We examine the accuracy of SWE estimated from synthetic displacements at 1,395 continuous GPS station locations in the WUSA. Displacement at each station is calculated from the predicted elastic response to variations in SWE from SNODAS and soil moisture from the NLDAS-2 Noah model. We invert synthetic displacements for TWS, showing that both seasonal accumulation and melt as well as year-to-year fluctuations in peak SWE can be estimated from data recorded by the existing GPS network. Because we impose a smoothness constraint in the inversion, recovered TWS exhibits mass leakage from mountain ranges to surrounding areas. This leakage bias is removed via linear rescaling in which the magnitude of the gain factor depends on station distribution and TWS anomaly patterns. The synthetic GPS-derived estimates reproduce approximately half of the spatial variability (unbiased root mean square error ˜50%) of TWS loading within mountain ranges, a considerable improvement over GRACE. The inclusion of additional simulated GPS stations improves representation of spatial variations. GPS data can be used to estimate mountain-range-scale SWE, but effects of soil moisture and other TWS components must first be subtracted from the GPS-derived load estimates.

Statistical analysis of the determinations of the Sun's Galactocentric distance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malkin, Zinovy

2013-02-01

Based on several tens of R0 measurements made during the past two decades, several studies have been performed to derive the best estimate of R0. Some used just simple averaging to derive a result, whereas others provided comprehensive analyses of possible errors in published results. In either case, detailed statistical analyses of data used were not performed. However, a computation of the best estimates of the Galactic rotation constants is not only an astronomical but also a metrological task. Here we perform an analysis of 53 R0 measurements (published in the past 20 years) to assess the consistency of the data. Our analysis shows that they are internally consistent. It is also shown that any trend in the R0 estimates from the last 20 years is statistically negligible, which renders the presence of a bandwagon effect doubtful. On the other hand, the formal errors in the published R0 estimates improve significantly with time.

Predictions of Tropical Forest Biomass and Biomass Growth Based on Stand Height or Canopy Area Are Improved by Landsat-Scale Phenology across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

Treesearch

David Gwenzi; Eileen Helmer; Xiaolin Zhu; Michael Lefsky; Humfredo Marcano-Vega

2017-01-01

Remotely-sensed estimates of forest biomass are usually based on various measurements of canopy height, area, volume or texture, as derived from LiDAR, radar or fine spatial resolution imagery. These measurements are then calibrated to estimates of stand biomass that are primarily based on tree stem diameters. Although humid tropical...

Further developments in orbit ephemeris derived neutral density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Locke, Travis

There are a number of non-conservative forces acting on a satellite in low Earth orbit. The one which is the most dominant and also contains the most uncertainty is atmospheric drag. Atmospheric drag is directly proportional to atmospheric density, and the existing atmospheric density models do not accurately model the variations in atmospheric density. In this research, precision orbit ephemerides (POE) are used as input measurements in an optimal orbit determination scheme in order to estimate corrections to existing atmospheric density models. These estimated corrections improve the estimates of the drag experienced by a satellite and therefore provide an improvement in orbit determination and prediction as well as a better overall understanding of the Earth's upper atmosphere. The optimal orbit determination scheme used in this work includes using POE data as measurements in a sequential filter/smoother process using the Orbit Determination Tool Kit (ODTK) software. The POE derived density estimates are validated by comparing them with the densities derived from accelerometers on board the Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). These accelerometer derived density data sets for both CHAMP and GRACE are available from Sean Bruinsma of the Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES). The trend in the variation of atmospheric density is compared quantitatively by calculating the cross correlation (CC) between the POE derived density values and the accelerometer derived density values while the magnitudes of the two data sets are compared by calculating the root mean square (RMS) values between the two. There are certain high frequency density variations that are observed in the accelerometer derived density data but not in the POE derived density data or any of the baseline density models. These high frequency density variations are typically small in magnitude compared to the overall day-night variation. However during certain time periods, such as when the satellite is near the terminator, the variations are on the same order of magnitude as the diurnal variations. These variations can also be especially prevalent during geomagnetic storms and near the polar cusps. One of the goals of this work is to see what affect these unmodeled high frequency variations have on orbit propagation. In order to see this effect, the orbits of CHAMP and GRACE are propagated during certain time periods using different sources of density data as input measurements (accelerometer, POE, HASDM, and Jacchia 1971). The resulting orbit propagations are all compared to the propagation using the accelerometer derived density data which is used as truth. The RMS and the maximum difference between the different propagations are analyzed in order to see what effect the unmodeled density variations have on orbit propagation. These results are also binned by solar and geomagnetic activity level. The primary input into the orbit determination scheme used to produce the POE derived density estimates is a precision orbit ephemeris file. This file contains position and velocity in-formation for the satellite based on GPS and SLR measurements. The values contained in these files are estimated values and therefore contain some level of error, typically thought to be around the 5-10 cm level. The other primary focus of this work is to evaluate the effect of adding different levels of noise (0.1 m, 0.5 m, 1 m, 10 m, and 100 m) to this raw ephemeris data file before it is input into the orbit determination scheme. The resulting POE derived density estimates for each level of noise are then compared with the accelerometer derived densities by computing the CC and RMS values between the data sets. These results are also binned by solar and geomagnetic activity level.

Evaluating Exposure-Response Associations for Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma with Varying Methods of Assigning Cumulative Benzene Exposure in the Shanghai Women's Health Study.

PubMed

Friesen, Melissa C; Bassig, Bryan A; Vermeulen, Roel; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Purdue, Mark P; Stewart, Patricia A; Xiang, Yong-Bing; Chow, Wong-Ho; Ji, Bu-Tian; Yang, Gong; Linet, Martha S; Hu, Wei; Gao, Yu-Tang; Zheng, Wei; Rothman, Nathaniel; Lan, Qing

2017-01-01

To provide insight into the contributions of exposure measurements to job exposure matrices (JEMs), we examined the robustness of an association between occupational benzene exposure and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) to varying exposure assessment methods. NHL risk was examined in a prospective population-based cohort of 73087 women in Shanghai. A mixed-effects model that combined a benzene JEM with >60000 short-term, area benzene inspection measurements was used to derive two sets of measurement-based benzene estimates: 'job/industry-specific' estimates (our presumed best approach) were derived from the model's fixed effects (year, JEM intensity rating) and random effects (occupation, industry); 'calibrated JEM' estimates were derived using only the fixed effects. 'Uncalibrated JEM' (using the ordinal JEM ratings) and exposure duration estimates were also calculated. Cumulative exposure for each subject was calculated for each approach based on varying exposure definitions defined using the JEM's probability ratings. We examined the agreement between the cumulative metrics and evaluated changes in the benzene-NHL associations. For our primary exposure definition, the job/industry-specific estimates were moderately to highly correlated with all other approaches (Pearson correlation 0.61-0.89; Spearman correlation > 0.99). All these metrics resulted in statistically significant exposure-response associations for NHL, with negligible gain in model fit from using measurement-based estimates. Using more sensitive or specific exposure definitions resulted in elevated but non-significant associations. The robust associations observed here with varying benzene assessment methods provide support for a benzene-NHL association. While incorporating exposure measurements did not improve model fit, the measurements allowed us to derive quantitative exposure-response curves. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society 2017.

Policy issues and data communications for NASA earth observation missions until 1985

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Corte, A. B.; Warren, C. J.

1975-01-01

The series of LANDSAT sensors with the highest potential data rates of the missions were examined. An examination of LANDSAT imagery uses shows that relatively few require transmission of the full resolution data on a repetitive quasi real time basis. Accuracy of global crop size forecasting can possibly be improved through information derived from LANDSAT imagery. A current forecasting experiment uses the imagery for crop area estimation only, yield being derived from other data sources.

Examining the utility of satellite-based wind sheltering estimates for lake hydrodynamic modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Den Hoek, Jamon; Read, Jordan S.; Winslow, Luke A.; Montesano, Paul; Markfort, Corey D.

2015-01-01

Satellite-based measurements of vegetation canopy structure have been in common use for the last decade but have never been used to estimate canopy's impact on wind sheltering of individual lakes. Wind sheltering is caused by slower winds in the wake of topography and shoreline obstacles (e.g. forest canopy) and influences heat loss and the flux of wind-driven mixing energy into lakes, which control lake temperatures and indirectly structure lake ecosystem processes, including carbon cycling and thermal habitat partitioning. Lakeshore wind sheltering has often been parameterized by lake surface area but such empirical relationships are only based on forested lakeshores and overlook the contributions of local land cover and terrain to wind sheltering. This study is the first to examine the utility of satellite imagery-derived broad-scale estimates of wind sheltering across a diversity of land covers. Using 30 m spatial resolution ASTER GDEM2 elevation data, the mean sheltering height, hs, being the combination of local topographic rise and canopy height above the lake surface, is calculated within 100 m-wide buffers surrounding 76,000 lakes in the U.S. state of Wisconsin. Uncertainty of GDEM2-derived hs was compared to SRTM-, high-resolution G-LiHT lidar-, and ICESat-derived estimates of hs, respective influences of land cover type and buffer width on hsare examined; and the effect of including satellite-based hs on the accuracy of a statewide lake hydrodynamic model was discussed. Though GDEM2 hs uncertainty was comparable to or better than other satellite-based measures of hs, its higher spatial resolution and broader spatial coverage allowed more lakes to be included in modeling efforts. GDEM2 was shown to offer superior utility for estimating hs compared to other satellite-derived data, but was limited by its consistent underestimation of hs, inability to detect within-buffer hs variability, and differing accuracy across land cover types. Nonetheless, considering a GDEM2 hs-derived wind sheltering potential improved the modeled lake temperature root mean square error for non-forested lakes by 0.72 °C compared to a commonly used wind sheltering model based on lake area alone. While results from this study show promise, the limitations of near-global GDEM2 data in timeliness, temporal and spatial resolution, and vertical accuracy were apparent. As hydrodynamic modeling and high-resolution topographic mapping efforts both expand, future remote sensing-derived vegetation structure data must be improved to meet wind sheltering accuracy requirements to expand our understanding of lake processes.

Soil erosion modelled with USLE and PESERA using QuickBird derived vegetation parameters in an alpine catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meusburger, K.; Konz, N.; Schaub, M.; Alewell, C.

2010-06-01

The focus of soil erosion research in the Alps has been in two categories: (i) on-site measurements, which are rather small scale point measurements on selected plots often constrained to irrigation experiments or (ii) off-site quantification of sediment delivery at the outlet of the catchment. Results of both categories pointed towards the importance of an intact vegetation cover to prevent soil loss. With the recent availability of high-resolution satellites such as IKONOS and QuickBird options for detecting and monitoring vegetation parameters in heterogeneous terrain have increased. The aim of this study is to evaluate the usefulness of QuickBird derived vegetation parameters in soil erosion models for alpine sites by comparison to Cesium-137 (Cs-137) derived soil erosion estimates. The study site (67 km 2) is located in the Central Swiss Alps (Urseren Valley) and is characterised by scarce forest cover and strong anthropogenic influences due to grassland farming for centuries. A fractional vegetation cover (FVC) map for grassland and detailed land-cover maps are available from linear spectral unmixing and supervised classification of QuickBird imagery. The maps were introduced to the Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA) model as well as to the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). Regarding the latter model, the FVC was indirectly incorporated by adapting the C factor. Both models show an increase in absolute soil erosion values when FVC is considered. In contrast to USLE and the Cs-137 soil erosion rates, PESERA estimates are low. For the USLE model also the spatial patterns improved and showed "hotspots" of high erosion of up to 16 t ha -1 a -1. In conclusion field measurements of Cs-137 confirmed the improvement of soil erosion estimates using the satellite-derived vegetation data.

The BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework: Recent Developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sullivan, D. C.; Larkin, N.; Raffuse, S. M.; Strand, T.; ONeill, S. M.; Leung, F. T.; Qu, J. J.; Hao, X.

2012-12-01

BlueSky systems—a set of decision support tools including SmartFire and the BlueSky Framework—aid public policy decision makers and scientific researchers in evaluating the air quality impacts of fires. Smoke and fire managers use BlueSky systems in decisions about prescribed burns and wildland firefighting. Air quality agencies use BlueSky systems to support decisions related to air quality regulations. We will discuss a range of recent improvements to the BlueSky systems, as well as examples of applications and future plans. BlueSky systems have the flexibility to accept basic fire information from virtually any source and can reconcile multiple information sources so that duplication of fire records is eliminated. BlueSky systems currently apply information from (1) the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Hazard Mapping System (HMS), which represents remotely sensed data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES); (2) the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) interagency project, which derives fire perimeters from Landsat 30-meter burn scars; (3) the Geospatial Multi-Agency Coordination Group (GeoMAC), which produces helicopter-flown burn perimeters; and (4) ground-based fire reports, such as the ICS-209 reports managed by the National Wildfire Coordinating Group. Efforts are currently underway to streamline the use of additional ground-based systems, such as states' prescribed burn databases. BlueSky systems were recently modified to address known uncertainties in smoke modeling associated with (1) estimates of biomass consumption derived from sparse fuel moisture data, and (2) models of plume injection heights. Additional sources of remotely sensed data are being applied to address these issues as follows: - The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis Real-Time (TMPA-RT) data set is being used to improve dead fuel moisture estimates. - EastFire live fuel moisture estimates, which are derived from NASA's MODIS direct broadcast, are being used to improve live fuel moisture estimates. - NASA's Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) stereo heights are being used to improve estimates of plume injection heights. Further, the Fire Location and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBÉ) model was incorporated into the BlueSky Framework as an alternative means of calculating fire emissions. FLAMBÉ directly estimates emissions on the basis of fire detections and radiance measures from NASA's MODIS and NOAA's GOES satellites. (The authors gratefully acknowledge NASA's Applied Sciences Program [Grant Nos. NN506AB52A and NNX09AV76G)], the USDA Forest Service, and the Joint Fire Science Program for their support.)

Retrospective Analog Year Analyses Using NASA Satellite Data to Improve USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teng, W. L.; Shannon, H. D.

2011-12-01

The USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) is responsible for monitoring weather and climate impacts on domestic and foreign crop development. One of WAOB's primary goals is to determine the net cumulative effect of weather and climate anomalies on final crop yields. To this end, a broad array of information is consulted, including maps, charts, and time series of recent weather, climate, and crop observations; numerical output from weather and crop models; and reports from the press, USDA attachés, and foreign governments. The resulting agricultural weather assessments are published in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, to keep farmers, policy makers, and commercial agricultural interests informed of weather and climate impacts on agriculture. Because both the amount and timing of precipitation significantly impact crop yields, WAOB often uses precipitation time series to identify growing seasons with similar weather patterns and help estimate crop yields for the current growing season, based on observed yields in analog years. Although, historically, these analog years are identified through visual inspection, the qualitative nature of this methodology sometimes precludes the definitive identification of the best analog year. One goal of this study is to introduce a more rigorous, statistical approach for identifying analog years. This approach is based on a modified coefficient of determination, termed the analog index (AI). The derivation of AI will be described. Another goal of this study is to compare the performance of AI for time series derived from surface-based observations vs. satellite-based measurements (NASA TRMM and other data). Five study areas and six growing seasons of data were analyzed (2003-2007 as potential analog years and 2008 as the target year). Results thus far show that, for all five areas, crop yield estimates derived from satellite-based precipitation data are closer to measured yields than are estimates derived from surface-based precipitation measurements. Work is continuing to include satellite-based surface soil moisture data and model-assimilated root zone soil moisture. This study is part of a larger effort to improve WAOB estimates by integrating NASA remote sensing observations and research results into WAOB's decision-making environment.

Aeroelastic Modeling of X-56A Stiff-Wing Configuration Flight Test Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grauer, Jared A.; Boucher, Matthew J.

2017-01-01

Aeroelastic stability and control derivatives for the X-56A Multi-Utility Technology Testbed (MUTT), in the stiff-wing configuration, were estimated from flight test data using the output-error method. Practical aspects of the analysis are discussed. The orthogonal phase-optimized multisine inputs provided excellent data information for aeroelastic modeling. Consistent parameter estimates were determined using output error in both the frequency and time domains. The frequency domain analysis converged faster and was less sensitive to starting values for the model parameters, which was useful for determining the aeroelastic model structure and obtaining starting values for the time domain analysis. Including a modal description of the structure from a finite element model reduced the complexity of the estimation problem and improved the modeling results. Effects of reducing the model order on the short period stability and control derivatives were investigated.

Optimized tuner selection for engine performance estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Donald L. (Inventor); Garg, Sanjay (Inventor)

2013-01-01

A methodology for minimizing the error in on-line Kalman filter-based aircraft engine performance estimation applications is presented. This technique specifically addresses the underdetermined estimation problem, where there are more unknown parameters than available sensor measurements. A systematic approach is applied to produce a model tuning parameter vector of appropriate dimension to enable estimation by a Kalman filter, while minimizing the estimation error in the parameters of interest. Tuning parameter selection is performed using a multi-variable iterative search routine which seeks to minimize the theoretical mean-squared estimation error. Theoretical Kalman filter estimation error bias and variance values are derived at steady-state operating conditions, and the tuner selection routine is applied to minimize these values. The new methodology yields an improvement in on-line engine performance estimation accuracy.

Augmenting Satellite Precipitation Estimation with Lightning Information

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mahrooghy, Majid; Anantharaj, Valentine G; Younan, Nicolas H.

2013-01-01

We have used lightning information to augment the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Imagery using an Artificial Neural Network - Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS). Co-located lightning data are used to segregate cloud patches, segmented from GOES-12 infrared data, into either electrified (EL) or non-electrified (NEL) patches. A set of features is extracted separately for the EL and NEL cloud patches. The features for the EL cloud patches include new features based on the lightning information. The cloud patches are classified and clustered using self-organizing maps (SOM). Then brightness temperature and rain rate (T-R) relationships are derived for the different clusters.more » Rain rates are estimated for the cloud patches based on their representative T-R relationship. The Equitable Threat Score (ETS) for daily precipitation estimates is improved by almost 12% for the winter season. In the summer, no significant improvements in ETS are noted.« less

Bayesian image reconstruction for improving detection performance of muon tomography.

PubMed

Wang, Guobao; Schultz, Larry J; Qi, Jinyi

2009-05-01

Muon tomography is a novel technology that is being developed for detecting high-Z materials in vehicles or cargo containers. Maximum likelihood methods have been developed for reconstructing the scattering density image from muon measurements. However, the instability of maximum likelihood estimation often results in noisy images and low detectability of high-Z targets. In this paper, we propose using regularization to improve the image quality of muon tomography. We formulate the muon reconstruction problem in a Bayesian framework by introducing a prior distribution on scattering density images. An iterative shrinkage algorithm is derived to maximize the log posterior distribution. At each iteration, the algorithm obtains the maximum a posteriori update by shrinking an unregularized maximum likelihood update. Inverse quadratic shrinkage functions are derived for generalized Laplacian priors and inverse cubic shrinkage functions are derived for generalized Gaussian priors. Receiver operating characteristic studies using simulated data demonstrate that the Bayesian reconstruction can greatly improve the detection performance of muon tomography.

Performance analysis of improved iterated cubature Kalman filter and its application to GNSS/INS.

PubMed

Cui, Bingbo; Chen, Xiyuan; Xu, Yuan; Huang, Haoqian; Liu, Xiao

2017-01-01

In order to improve the accuracy and robustness of GNSS/INS navigation system, an improved iterated cubature Kalman filter (IICKF) is proposed by considering the state-dependent noise and system uncertainty. First, a simplified framework of iterated Gaussian filter is derived by using damped Newton-Raphson algorithm and online noise estimator. Then the effect of state-dependent noise coming from iterated update is analyzed theoretically, and an augmented form of CKF algorithm is applied to improve the estimation accuracy. The performance of IICKF is verified by field test and numerical simulation, and results reveal that, compared with non-iterated filter, iterated filter is less sensitive to the system uncertainty, and IICKF improves the accuracy of yaw, roll and pitch by 48.9%, 73.1% and 83.3%, respectively, compared with traditional iterated KF. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Progress in navigation filter estimate fusion and its application to spacecraft rendezvous

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, J. Russell

1994-01-01

A new derivation of an algorithm which fuses the outputs of two Kalman filters is presented within the context of previous research in this field. Unlike other works, this derivation clearly shows the combination of estimates to be optimal, minimizing the trace of the fused covariance matrix. The algorithm assumes that the filters use identical models, and are stable and operating optimally with respect to their own local measurements. Evidence is presented which indicates that the error ellipsoid derived from the covariance of the optimally fused estimate is contained within the intersections of the error ellipsoids of the two filters being fused. Modifications which reduce the algorithm's data transmission requirements are also presented, including a scalar gain approximation, a cross-covariance update formula which employs only the two contributing filters' autocovariances, and a form of the algorithm which can be used to reinitialize the two Kalman filters. A sufficient condition for using the optimally fused estimates to periodically reinitialize the Kalman filters in this fashion is presented and proved as a theorem. When these results are applied to an optimal spacecraft rendezvous problem, simulated performance results indicate that the use of optimally fused data leads to significantly improved robustness to initial target vehicle state errors. The following applications of estimate fusion methods to spacecraft rendezvous are also described: state vector differencing, and redundancy management.

Dispersive estimates for rational symbols and local well-posedness of the nonzero energy NV equation. II

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazeykina, Anna; Muñoz, Claudio

2018-04-01

We continue our study on the Cauchy problem for the two-dimensional Novikov-Veselov (NV) equation, integrable via the inverse scattering transform for the two dimensional Schrödinger operator at a fixed energy parameter. This work is concerned with the more involved case of a positive energy parameter. For the solution of the linearized equation we derive smoothing and Strichartz estimates by combining new estimates for two different frequency regimes, extending our previous results for the negative energy case [18]. The low frequency regime, which our previous result was not able to treat, is studied in detail. At non-low frequencies we also derive improved smoothing estimates with gain of almost one derivative. Then we combine the linear estimates with a Fourier decomposition method and Xs,b spaces to obtain local well-posedness of NV at positive energy in Hs, s > 1/2. Our result implies, in particular, that at least for s > 1/2, NV does not change its behavior from semilinear to quasilinear as energy changes sign, in contrast to the closely related Kadomtsev-Petviashvili equations. As a complement to our LWP results, we also provide some new explicit solutions of NV at zero energy, generalizations of the lumps solutions, which exhibit new and nonstandard long time behavior. In particular, these solutions blow up in infinite time in L2.

Refined shape model fitting methods for detecting various types of phenological information on major U.S. crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakamoto, Toshihiro

2018-04-01

Crop phenological information is a critical variable in evaluating the influence of environmental stress on the final crop yield in spatio-temporal dimensions. Although the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Land Cover Dynamics product (MCD12Q2) is widely used in place of crop phenological information, the definitions of MCD12Q2-derived phenological events (e.g. green-up date, dormancy date) were not completely consistent with those of crop development stages used in statistical surveys (e.g. emerged date, harvested date). It has been necessary to devise an alternative method focused on detecting continental-scale crop developmental stages using a different approach. Therefore, this study aimed to refine the Shape Model Fitting (SMF) method to improve its applicability to multiple major U.S. crops. The newly-refined SMF methods could estimate the timing of 36 crop-development stages of major U.S. crops, including corn, soybeans, winter wheat, spring wheat, barley, sorghum, rice, and cotton. The newly-developed calibration process did not require any long-term field observation data, and could calibrate crop-specific phenological parameters, which were used as coefficients in estimated equation, by using only freely accessible public data. The calibration of phenological parameters was conducted in two steps. In the first step, the national common phenological parameters, referred to as X0[base], were calibrated by using the statistical data of 2008. The SMF method coupled using X0[base] was named the rSMF[base] method. The second step was a further calibration to gain regionally-adjusted phenological parameters for each state, referred to as X0[local], by using additional statistical data of 2015 and 2016. The rSMF method using the X0[local] was named the rSMF[local] method. This second calibration process improved the estimation accuracy for all tested crops. When applying the rSMF[base] method to the validation data set (2009-2014), the root mean square error (RMSE) of the rSMF[base]-derived estimates ranged from 7.1 days (corn) to 15.7 days (winter wheat). When using the rSMF[local] method, the RMSE of the rSMF[local]-derived estimates improved and ranged from 5.6 days (corn) to 12.3 days (winter wheat). The results showed that the second calibration step for the rSMF[local] method could correct the region-dependent bias error between the rSMF[base]-derived estimates and the statistical data. A comparison between the performances of the refined SMF methods and the MCD12Q2 products, indicated that both of the rSMF methods were superior to the MCD12Q2 products in estimating all phenological stages, except for the case of the rSMF[base]-derived barley emerged stages. The phenological stages for which the rSMF[local] showed the best estimation accuracy were the corn silking stage (RMSE = 4.3 days); the soybeans dropping leaves stage (RMSE = 4.9 days); the headed stages of winter wheat (RMSE = 11.1 days), barley (RMSE = 6.1 days), and sorghum (RMSE = 9.5 days); the spring-wheat harvested stage (RMSE = 5.5 days); the rice emerged stage (RMSE = 5.5 days), and the cotton squaring stage (RMSE = 6.6 days). These were more accurate than the results achieved by the MCD12Q2 products. In addition, the rSMF[local]-derived estimates were superior in terms of the reproducibility of the annual variation range, particularly of the late reproductive stages, such as the mature and harvested stages. The crop phenology maps derived from the SMF [local] method were also in good agreement with the relevant maps derived from statistics, and could reveal the characteristic spatial pattern of the key phenological stages at the continental scale with fine spatial resolution. For example, the winter-wheat headed stage clearly became later from south to north. The cotton squaring stage became earlier from the central region towards both coastal regions.

Improved Dietary Guidelines for Vitamin D: Application of Individual Participant Data (IPD)-Level Meta-Regression Analyses

PubMed Central

Cashman, Kevin D.; Ritz, Christian; Kiely, Mairead

2017-01-01

Dietary Reference Values (DRVs) for vitamin D have a key role in the prevention of vitamin D deficiency. However, despite adopting similar risk assessment protocols, estimates from authoritative agencies over the last 6 years have been diverse. This may have arisen from diverse approaches to data analysis. Modelling strategies for pooling of individual subject data from cognate vitamin D randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are likely to provide the most appropriate DRV estimates. Thus, the objective of the present work was to undertake the first-ever individual participant data (IPD)-level meta-regression, which is increasingly recognized as best practice, from seven winter-based RCTs (with 882 participants ranging in age from 4 to 90 years) of the vitamin D intake–serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) dose-response. Our IPD-derived estimates of vitamin D intakes required to maintain 97.5% of 25(OH)D concentrations >25, 30, and 50 nmol/L across the population are 10, 13, and 26 µg/day, respectively. In contrast, standard meta-regression analyses with aggregate data (as used by several agencies in recent years) from the same RCTs estimated that a vitamin D intake requirement of 14 µg/day would maintain 97.5% of 25(OH)D >50 nmol/L. These first IPD-derived estimates offer improved dietary recommendations for vitamin D because the underpinning modeling captures the between-person variability in response of serum 25(OH)D to vitamin D intake. PMID:28481259

Quantification of regional myocardial blood flow estimation with three-dimensional dynamic rubidium-82 PET and modified spillover correction model.

PubMed

Katoh, Chietsugu; Yoshinaga, Keiichiro; Klein, Ran; Kasai, Katsuhiko; Tomiyama, Yuuki; Manabe, Osamu; Naya, Masanao; Sakakibara, Mamoru; Tsutsui, Hiroyuki; deKemp, Robert A; Tamaki, Nagara

2012-08-01

Myocardial blood flow (MBF) estimation with (82)Rubidium ((82)Rb) positron emission tomography (PET) is technically difficult because of the high spillover between regions of interest, especially due to the long positron range. We sought to develop a new algorithm to reduce the spillover in image-derived blood activity curves, using non-uniform weighted least-squares fitting. Fourteen volunteers underwent imaging with both 3-dimensional (3D) (82)Rb and (15)O-water PET at rest and during pharmacological stress. Whole left ventricular (LV) (82)Rb MBF was estimated using a one-compartment model, including a myocardium-to-blood spillover correction to estimate the corresponding blood input function Ca(t)(whole). Regional K1 values were calculated using this uniform global input function, which simplifies equations and enables robust estimation of MBF. To assess the robustness of the modified algorithm, inter-operator repeatability of 3D (82)Rb MBF was compared with a previously established method. Whole LV correlation of (82)Rb MBF with (15)O-water MBF was better (P < .01) with the modified spillover correction method (r = 0.92 vs r = 0.60). The modified method also yielded significantly improved inter-operator repeatability of regional MBF quantification (r = 0.89) versus the established method (r = 0.82) (P < .01). A uniform global input function can suppress LV spillover into the image-derived blood input function, resulting in improved precision for MBF quantification with 3D (82)Rb PET.

Afro-derived Brazilian populations: male genetic constitution estimated by Y-chromosomes STRs and AluYAP element polymorphisms.

PubMed

Ribeiro, Guilherme Galvarros Bueno Lobo; De Lima, Reginaldo Ramos; Wiezel, Cláudia Emília Vieira; Ferreira, Luzitano Brandão; Sousa, Sandra Mara Bispo; Rocha, Dulce Maria Sucena; Canas, Maria do Carmo Tomitão; Nardelli-Costa, Juliana; Klautau-Guimarães, Maria De Nazaré; Simões, Aguinaldo Luiz; Oliveira, Silviene Fabiana

2009-01-01

The genetic constitution of Afro-derived Brazilian populations is barely studied. To improve that knowledge, we investigated the AluYAP element and five Y-chromosome STRs (DYS19, DYS390, DYS391, DYS392, and DYS393) to estimate ethnic male contribution in the constitution of four Brazilian quilombos remnants: Mocambo, Rio das Rãs, Kalunga, and Riacho de Sacutiaba. Results indicated significant differences among communities, corroborating historical information about the Brazilian settlement. We concluded that besides African contribution, there was a great European participation in the constitution of these four populations and that observed haplotype variability could be explained by gene flow to quilombos remnants and mutational events in microsatellites (STRs). (c) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Improving Assessment of Lifetime Solar Ultraviolet Radiation Exposure in Epidemiologic Studies: Comparison of Ultraviolet Exposure Assessment Methods in a Nationwide United States Occupational Cohort.

PubMed

Little, Mark P; Tatalovich, Zaria; Linet, Martha S; Fang, Michelle; Kendall, Gerald M; Kimlin, Michael G

2018-06-13

Solar ultraviolet radiation is the primary risk factor for skin cancers and sun-related eye disorders. Estimates of individual ambient ultraviolet irradiance derived from ground-based solar measurements and from satellite measurements have rarely been compared. Using self-reported residential history from 67,189 persons in a nationwide occupational US radiologic technologists cohort, we estimated ambient solar irradiance using data from ground-based meters and noontime satellite measurements. The mean distance-moved from city of longest residence in childhood increased from 137.6 km at ages 13-19 to 870.3 km at ages ≥65, with corresponding increases in absolute latitude-difference moved. At ages 20/40/60/80, the Pearson/Spearman correlation coefficients of ground-based and satellite-derived solar potential ultraviolet exposure, using irradiance and cumulative radiant-exposure metrics, were high (=0.87-0.92). There was also moderate correlation (Pearson/Spearman correlation coefficients=0.51-0.60) between irradiance at birth and at last-known address, for ground-based and satellite data. Satellite-based lifetime estimates of ultraviolet radiation were generally 14-15% lower than ground-based estimates, albeit with substantial uncertainties, possibly because ground-based estimates incorporate fluctuations in cloud and ozone, which are incompletely incorporated in the single noontime satellite-overpass ultraviolet value. If confirmed elsewhere, the findings suggest that ground-based estimates may improve exposure-assessment accuracy and potentially provide new insights into ultraviolet-radiation-disease relationships in epidemiologic studies. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Combination of TOPEX/POSEIDON Data with a Hydrographic Inversion for Determination of the Oceanic General Circulation and its Relation to Geoid Accuracy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ganachaud, Alexandre; Wunsch, Carl; Kim, Myung-Chan; Tapley, Byron

1997-01-01

A global estimate of the absolute oceanic general circulation from a geostrophic inversion of in situ hydrographic data is tested against and then combined with an estimate obtained from TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetric data and a geoid model computed using the JGM-3 gravity-field solution. Within the quantitative uncertainties of both the hydrographic inversion and the geoid estimate, the two estimates derived by very different methods are consistent. When the in situ inversion is combined with the altimetry/geoid scheme using a recursive inverse procedure, a new solution, fully consistent with both hydrography and altimetry, is found. There is, however, little reduction in the uncertainties of the calculated ocean circulation and its mass and heat fluxes because the best available geoid estimate remains noisy relative to the purely oceanographic inferences. The conclusion drawn from this is that the comparatively large errors present in the existing geoid models now limit the ability of satellite altimeter data to improve directly the general ocean circulation models derived from in situ measurements. Because improvements in the geoid could be realized through a dedicated spaceborne gravity recovery mission, the impact of hypothetical much better, future geoid estimates on the circulation uncertainty is also quantified, showing significant hypothetical reductions in the uncertainties of oceanic transport calculations. Full ocean general circulation models could better exploit both existing oceanographic data and future gravity-mission data, but their present use is severely limited by the inability to quantify their error budgets.

Estimation of soil clay and organic matter using two quantitative methods (PLSR and MARS) based on reflectance spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nawar, Said; Buddenbaum, Henning; Hill, Joachim

2014-05-01

A rapid and inexpensive soil analytical technique is needed for soil quality assessment and accurate mapping. This study investigated a method for improved estimation of soil clay (SC) and organic matter (OM) using reflectance spectroscopy. Seventy soil samples were collected from Sinai peninsula in Egypt to estimate the soil clay and organic matter relative to the soil spectra. Soil samples were scanned with an Analytical Spectral Devices (ASD) spectrometer (350-2500 nm). Three spectral formats were used in the calibration models derived from the spectra and the soil properties: (1) original reflectance spectra (OR), (2) first-derivative spectra smoothened using the Savitzky-Golay technique (FD-SG) and (3) continuum-removed reflectance (CR). Partial least-squares regression (PLSR) models using the CR of the 400-2500 nm spectral region resulted in R2 = 0.76 and 0.57, and RPD = 2.1 and 1.5 for estimating SC and OM, respectively, indicating better performance than that obtained using OR and SG. The multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) calibration model with the CR spectra resulted in an improved performance (R2 = 0.89 and 0.83, RPD = 3.1 and 2.4) for estimating SC and OM, respectively. The results show that the MARS models have a great potential for estimating SC and OM compared with PLSR models. The results obtained in this study have potential value in the field of soil spectroscopy because they can be applied directly to the mapping of soil properties using remote sensing imagery in arid environment conditions. Key Words: soil clay, organic matter, PLSR, MARS, reflectance spectroscopy.

Wireless Sensor Array Network DoA Estimation from Compressed Array Data via Joint Sparse Representation.

PubMed

Yu, Kai; Yin, Ming; Luo, Ji-An; Wang, Yingguan; Bao, Ming; Hu, Yu-Hen; Wang, Zhi

2016-05-23

A compressive sensing joint sparse representation direction of arrival estimation (CSJSR-DoA) approach is proposed for wireless sensor array networks (WSAN). By exploiting the joint spatial and spectral correlations of acoustic sensor array data, the CSJSR-DoA approach provides reliable DoA estimation using randomly-sampled acoustic sensor data. Since random sampling is performed at remote sensor arrays, less data need to be transmitted over lossy wireless channels to the fusion center (FC), and the expensive source coding operation at sensor nodes can be avoided. To investigate the spatial sparsity, an upper bound of the coherence of incoming sensor signals is derived assuming a linear sensor array configuration. This bound provides a theoretical constraint on the angular separation of acoustic sources to ensure the spatial sparsity of the received acoustic sensor array signals. The Cram e ´ r-Rao bound of the CSJSR-DoA estimator that quantifies the theoretical DoA estimation performance is also derived. The potential performance of the CSJSR-DoA approach is validated using both simulations and field experiments on a prototype WSAN platform. Compared to existing compressive sensing-based DoA estimation methods, the CSJSR-DoA approach shows significant performance improvement.

Estimating cropland NPP using national crop inventory and MODIS derived crop specific parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandaru, V.; West, T. O.; Ricciuto, D. M.

2011-12-01

Estimates of cropland net primary production (NPP) are needed as input for estimates of carbon flux and carbon stock changes. Cropland NPP is currently estimated using terrestrial ecosystem models, satellite remote sensing, or inventory data. All three of these methods have benefits and problems. Terrestrial ecosystem models are often better suited for prognostic estimates rather than diagnostic estimates. Satellite-based NPP estimates often underestimate productivity on intensely managed croplands and are also limited to a few broad crop categories. Inventory-based estimates are consistent with nationally collected data on crop yields, but they lack sub-county spatial resolution. Integrating these methods will allow for spatial resolution consistent with current land cover and land use, while also maintaining total biomass quantities recorded in national inventory data. The main objective of this study was to improve cropland NPP estimates by using a modification of the CASA NPP model with individual crop biophysical parameters partly derived from inventory data and MODIS 8day 250m EVI product. The study was conducted for corn and soybean crops in Iowa and Illinois for years 2006 and 2007. We used EVI as a linear function for fPAR, and used crop land cover data (56m spatial resolution) to extract individual crop EVI pixels. First, we separated mixed pixels of both corn and soybean that occur when MODIS 250m pixel contains more than one crop. Second, we substituted mixed EVI pixels with nearest pure pixel values of the same crop within 1km radius. To get more accurate photosynthetic active radiation (PAR), we applied the Mountain Climate Simulator (MTCLIM) algorithm with the use of temperature and precipitation data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) to generate shortwave radiation data. Finally, county specific light use efficiency (LUE) values of each crop for years 2006 to 2007 were determined by application of mean county inventory NPP and EVI-derived APAR into the Monteith equation. Results indicate spatial variability in LUE values across Iowa and Illinois. Northern regions of both Iowa and Illinois have higher LUE values than southern regions. This trend is reflected in NPP estimates. Results also show that corn has higher LUE values than soybean, resulting in higher NPP for corn than for soybean. Current NPP estimates were compared with NPP estimates from MOD17A3 product and with county inventory-based NPP estimates. Results indicate that current NPP estimates closely agree with inventory-based estimates, and that current NPP estimates are higher than those of the MOD17A3 product. It was also found that when mixed pixels were substituted with nearest pure pixels, revised NPP estimates were improved showing better agreement with inventory-based estimates.

Integrative missing value estimation for microarray data.

PubMed

Hu, Jianjun; Li, Haifeng; Waterman, Michael S; Zhou, Xianghong Jasmine

2006-10-12

Missing value estimation is an important preprocessing step in microarray analysis. Although several methods have been developed to solve this problem, their performance is unsatisfactory for datasets with high rates of missing data, high measurement noise, or limited numbers of samples. In fact, more than 80% of the time-series datasets in Stanford Microarray Database contain less than eight samples. We present the integrative Missing Value Estimation method (iMISS) by incorporating information from multiple reference microarray datasets to improve missing value estimation. For each gene with missing data, we derive a consistent neighbor-gene list by taking reference data sets into consideration. To determine whether the given reference data sets are sufficiently informative for integration, we use a submatrix imputation approach. Our experiments showed that iMISS can significantly and consistently improve the accuracy of the state-of-the-art Local Least Square (LLS) imputation algorithm by up to 15% improvement in our benchmark tests. We demonstrated that the order-statistics-based integrative imputation algorithms can achieve significant improvements over the state-of-the-art missing value estimation approaches such as LLS and is especially good for imputing microarray datasets with a limited number of samples, high rates of missing data, or very noisy measurements. With the rapid accumulation of microarray datasets, the performance of our approach can be further improved by incorporating larger and more appropriate reference datasets.

The bilinear complexity and practical algorithms for matrix multiplication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smirnov, A. V.

2013-12-01

A method for deriving bilinear algorithms for matrix multiplication is proposed. New estimates for the bilinear complexity of a number of problems of the exact and approximate multiplication of rectangular matrices are obtained. In particular, the estimate for the boundary rank of multiplying 3 × 3 matrices is improved and a practical algorithm for the exact multiplication of square n × n matrices is proposed. The asymptotic arithmetic complexity of this algorithm is O( n 2.7743).

MEG and fMRI Fusion for Non-Linear Estimation of Neural and BOLD Signal Changes

PubMed Central

Plis, Sergey M.; Calhoun, Vince D.; Weisend, Michael P.; Eichele, Tom; Lane, Terran

2010-01-01

The combined analysis of magnetoencephalography (MEG)/electroencephalography and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) measurements can lead to improvement in the description of the dynamical and spatial properties of brain activity. In this paper we empirically demonstrate this improvement using simulated and recorded task related MEG and fMRI activity. Neural activity estimates were derived using a dynamic Bayesian network with continuous real valued parameters by means of a sequential Monte Carlo technique. In synthetic data, we show that MEG and fMRI fusion improves estimation of the indirectly observed neural activity and smooths tracking of the blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) response. In recordings of task related neural activity the combination of MEG and fMRI produces a result with greater signal-to-noise ratio, that confirms the expectation arising from the nature of the experiment. The highly non-linear model of the BOLD response poses a difficult inference problem for neural activity estimation; computational requirements are also high due to the time and space complexity. We show that joint analysis of the data improves the system's behavior by stabilizing the differential equations system and by requiring fewer computational resources. PMID:21120141

A Hertzian contact mechanics based formulation to improve ultrasound elastography assessment of uterine cervical tissue stiffness.

PubMed

Briggs, Brandi N; Stender, Michael E; Muljadi, Patrick M; Donnelly, Meghan A; Winn, Virginia D; Ferguson, Virginia L

2015-06-25

Clinical practice requires improved techniques to assess human cervical tissue properties, especially at the internal os, or orifice, of the uterine cervix. Ultrasound elastography (UE) holds promise for non-invasively monitoring cervical stiffness throughout pregnancy. However, this technique provides qualitative strain images that cannot be linked to a material property (e.g., Young's modulus) without knowledge of the contact pressure under a rounded transvaginal transducer probe and correction for the resulting non-uniform strain dissipation. One technique to standardize elastogram images incorporates a material of known properties and uses one-dimensional, uniaxial Hooke's law to calculate Young's modulus within the compressed material half-space. However, this method does not account for strain dissipation and the strains that evolve in three-dimensional space. We demonstrate that an analytical approach based on 3D Hertzian contact mechanics provides a reasonable first approximation to correct for UE strain dissipation underneath a round transvaginal transducer probe and thus improves UE-derived estimates of tissue modulus. We validate the proposed analytical solution and evaluate sources of error using a finite element model. As compared to 1D uniaxial Hooke's law, the Hertzian contact-based solution yields significantly improved Young's modulus predictions in three homogeneous gelatin tissue phantoms possessing different moduli. We also demonstrate the feasibility of using this technique to image human cervical tissue, where UE-derived moduli estimations for the uterine cervix anterior lip agreed well with published, experimentally obtained values. Overall, UE with an attached reference standard and a Hertzian contact-based correction holds promise for improving quantitative estimates of cervical tissue modulus. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On estimating the basin-scale ocean circulation from satellite altimetry. Part 1: Straightforward spherical harmonic expansion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tai, Chang-Kou

1988-01-01

Direct estimation of the absolute dynamic topography from satellite altimetry has been confined to the largest scales (basically the basin-scale) owing to the fact that the signal-to-noise ratio is more unfavorable everywhere else. But even for the largest scales, the results are contaminated by the orbit error and geoid uncertainties. Recently a more accurate Earth gravity model (GEM-T1) became available, providing the opportunity to examine the whole question of direct estimation under a more critical limelight. It is found that our knowledge of the Earth's gravity field has indeed improved a great deal. However, it is not yet possible to claim definitively that our knowledge of the ocean circulation has improved through direct estimation. Yet, the improvement in the gravity model has come to the point that it is no longer possible to attribute the discrepancy at the basin scales between altimetric and hydrographic results as mostly due to geoid uncertainties. A substantial part of the difference must be due to other factors; i.e., the orbit error, or the uncertainty of the hydrographically derived dynamic topography.

Improving Estimates and Forecasts of Lake Carbon Pools and Fluxes Using Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zwart, J. A.; Hararuk, O.; Prairie, Y.; Solomon, C.; Jones, S.

2017-12-01

Lakes are biogeochemical hotspots on the landscape, contributing significantly to the global carbon cycle despite their small areal coverage. Observations and models of lake carbon pools and fluxes are rarely explicitly combined through data assimilation despite significant use of this technique in other fields with great success. Data assimilation adds value to both observations and models by constraining models with observations of the system and by leveraging knowledge of the system formalized by the model to objectively fill information gaps. In this analysis, we highlight the utility of data assimilation in lake carbon cycling research by using the Ensemble Kalman Filter to combine simple lake carbon models with observations of lake carbon pools. We demonstrate the use of data assimilation to improve a model's representation of lake carbon dynamics, to reduce uncertainty in estimates of lake carbon pools and fluxes, and to improve the accuracy of carbon pool size estimates relative to estimates derived from observations alone. Data assimilation techniques should be embraced as valuable tools for lake biogeochemists interested in learning about ecosystem dynamics and forecasting ecosystem states and processes.

Importance of Vertical Coupling in Agricultural Models on Assimilation of Satellite-derived Soil Moisture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mladenova, I. E.; Crow, W. T.; Teng, W. L.; Doraiswamy, P.

2010-12-01

Crop yield in crop production models is simulated as a function of weather, ground conditions and management practices and it is driven by the amount of nutrients, heat and water availability in the root-zone. It has been demonstrated that assimilation of satellite-derived soil moisture data has the potential to improve the model root-zone soil water (RZSW) information. However, the satellite estimates represent the moisture conditions of the top 3 cm to 5 cm of the soil profile depending on system configuration and surface conditions (i.e. soil wetness, density of the canopy cover, etc). The propagation of this superficial information throughout the profile will depend on the model physics. In an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation system, as the one examined here, the update of each soil layer is done through the Kalman Gain, K. K is a weighing factor that determines how much correction will be performed on the forecasts. Furthermore, K depends on the strength of the correlation between the surface and the root-zone soil moisture; the stronger this correlation is, the more observations will impact the analysis. This means that even if the satellite-derived product has higher sensitivity and accuracy as compared to the model estimates, the improvement of the RZSW will be negligible if the surface-root zone coupling is weak, where the later is determined by the model subsurface physics. This research examines: (1) the strength of the vertical coupling in the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model over corn and soybeans covered fields in Iowa, US, (2) the potential to improve EPIC RZSW information through assimilation of satellite soil moisture data derived from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) and (3) the impact of the vertical coupling on the EnKF performance.

Derivatives of logarithmic stationary distributions for policy gradient reinforcement learning.

PubMed

Morimura, Tetsuro; Uchibe, Eiji; Yoshimoto, Junichiro; Peters, Jan; Doya, Kenji

2010-02-01

Most conventional policy gradient reinforcement learning (PGRL) algorithms neglect (or do not explicitly make use of) a term in the average reward gradient with respect to the policy parameter. That term involves the derivative of the stationary state distribution that corresponds to the sensitivity of its distribution to changes in the policy parameter. Although the bias introduced by this omission can be reduced by setting the forgetting rate gamma for the value functions close to 1, these algorithms do not permit gamma to be set exactly at gamma = 1. In this article, we propose a method for estimating the log stationary state distribution derivative (LSD) as a useful form of the derivative of the stationary state distribution through backward Markov chain formulation and a temporal difference learning framework. A new policy gradient (PG) framework with an LSD is also proposed, in which the average reward gradient can be estimated by setting gamma = 0, so it becomes unnecessary to learn the value functions. We also test the performance of the proposed algorithms using simple benchmark tasks and show that these can improve the performances of existing PG methods.

Assessing and adjusting for differences between HIV prevalence estimates derived from national population-based surveys and antenatal care surveillance, with applications for Spectrum 2013

PubMed Central

Marsh, Kimberly; Mahy, Mary; Salomon, Joshua A.; Hogan, Daniel R.

2014-01-01

Objective(s): To assess differences between HIV prevalence estimates derived from national population surveys and antenatal care (ANC) surveillance sites and to improve the calibration of ANC-derived estimates in Spectrum 2013 to more appropriately account for differences between these data. Design: Retrospective analysis of national population survey and ANC surveillance data from 25 countries with generalized epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa and 8 countries with concentrated epidemics. Methods: Adult national population survey and ANC surveillance HIV prevalence estimates were compared for all available national population survey data points for the years 1999–2012. For sub-Saharan Africa, a mixed-effects linear regression model determined whether the relationship between national population and ANC estimates was constant across surveys. A new calibration method was developed to incorporate national population survey data directly into the likelihood for HIV prevalence in countries with generalized epidemics. Results were used to develop default rules for adjusting ANC data for countries with no national population surveys. Results: ANC surveillance data typically overestimate population prevalence, although a wide variation, particularly in rural areas, is observed across countries and survey years. The new calibration method yields similar point estimates to previous approaches, but leads to an average 44% increase in the width of 95% uncertainty intervals. Conclusion: Important biases remain in ANC surveillance data for HIV prevalence. The new approach to model-fitting in Spectrum 2013 more appropriately accounts for this bias when producing national estimates in countries with generalized epidemics. In countries with concentrated epidemics, local sex ratios should be used to calibrate ANC surveillance estimates. PMID:25203158

Improved theory of time domain reflectometry with variable coaxial cable length for electrical conductivity measurements

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Although empirical models have been developed previously, a mechanistic model is needed for estimating electrical conductivity (EC) using time domain reflectometry (TDR) with variable lengths of coaxial cable. The goals of this study are to: (1) derive a mechanistic model based on multisection tra...

Touch-screen task-element times for improving SAE recommended practice J2365 : a first proposal.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-10-01

This report describes the identification of task elements and the estimation of their times for in-vehicle tasks such as dialing a phone number or finding a song using a touch screen. These : elements were derived from an experiment in which 24 drive...

Use of spectral analysis with iterative filter for voxelwise determination of regional rates of cerebral protein synthesis with L-[1-11C]leucine PET.

PubMed

Veronese, Mattia; Schmidt, Kathleen C; Smith, Carolyn Beebe; Bertoldo, Alessandra

2012-06-01

A spectral analysis approach was used to estimate kinetic parameters of the L-[1-(11)C]leucine positron emission tomography (PET) method and regional rates of cerebral protein synthesis (rCPS) on a voxel-by-voxel basis. Spectral analysis applies to both heterogeneous and homogeneous tissues; it does not require prior assumptions concerning number of tissue compartments. Parameters estimated with spectral analysis can be strongly affected by noise, but numerical filters improve estimation performance. Spectral analysis with iterative filter (SAIF) was originally developed to improve estimation of leucine kinetic parameters and rCPS in region-of-interest (ROI) data analyses. In the present study, we optimized SAIF for application at the voxel level. In measured L-[1-(11)C]leucine PET data, voxel-level SAIF parameter estimates averaged over all voxels within a ROI (mean voxel-SAIF) generally agreed well with corresponding estimates derived by applying the originally developed SAIF to ROI time-activity curves (ROI-SAIF). Region-of-interest-SAIF and mean voxel-SAIF estimates of rCPS were highly correlated. Simulations showed that mean voxel-SAIF rCPS estimates were less biased and less variable than ROI-SAIF estimates in the whole brain and cortex; biases were similar in white matter. We conclude that estimation of rCPS with SAIF is improved when the method is applied at voxel level than in ROI analysis.

Integer ambiguity resolution in precise point positioning: method comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geng, Jianghui; Meng, Xiaolin; Dodson, Alan H.; Teferle, Felix N.

2010-09-01

Integer ambiguity resolution at a single receiver can be implemented by applying improved satellite products where the fractional-cycle biases (FCBs) have been separated from the integer ambiguities in a network solution. One method to achieve these products is to estimate the FCBs by averaging the fractional parts of the float ambiguity estimates, and the other is to estimate the integer-recovery clocks by fixing the undifferenced ambiguities to integers in advance. In this paper, we theoretically prove the equivalence of the ambiguity-fixed position estimates derived from these two methods by assuming that the FCBs are hardware-dependent and only they are assimilated into the clocks and ambiguities. To verify this equivalence, we implement both methods in the Position and Navigation Data Analyst software to process 1 year of GPS data from a global network of about 350 stations. The mean biases between all daily position estimates derived from these two methods are only 0.2, 0.1 and 0.0 mm, whereas the standard deviations of all position differences are only 1.3, 0.8 and 2.0 mm for the East, North and Up components, respectively. Moreover, the differences of the position repeatabilities are below 0.2 mm on average for all three components. The RMS of the position estimates minus those from the International GNSS Service weekly solutions for the former method differs by below 0.1 mm on average for each component from that for the latter method. Therefore, considering the recognized millimeter-level precision of current GPS-derived daily positions, these statistics empirically demonstrate the theoretical equivalence of the ambiguity-fixed position estimates derived from these two methods. In practice, we note that the former method is compatible with current official clock-generation methods, whereas the latter method is not, but can potentially lead to slightly better positioning quality.

Evaluating Childhood Vaccination Coverage of NIP Vaccines: Coverage Survey versus Zhejiang Provincial Immunization Information System

PubMed Central

Hu, Yu; Chen, Yaping

2017-01-01

Vaccination coverage in Zhejiang province, east China, is evaluated through repeated coverage surveys. The Zhejiang provincial immunization information system (ZJIIS) was established in 2004 with links to all immunization clinics. ZJIIS has become an alternative to quickly assess the vaccination coverage. To assess the current completeness and accuracy on the vaccination coverage derived from ZJIIS, we compared the estimates from ZJIIS with the estimates from the most recent provincial coverage survey in 2014, which combined interview data with verified data from ZJIIS. Of the enrolled 2772 children in the 2014 provincial survey, the proportions of children with vaccination cards and registered in ZJIIS were 94.0% and 87.4%, respectively. Coverage estimates from ZJIIS were systematically higher than the corresponding estimates obtained through the survey, with a mean difference of 4.5%. Of the vaccination doses registered in ZJIIS, 16.7% differed from the date recorded in the corresponding vaccination cards. Under-registration in ZJIIS significantly influenced the coverage estimates derived from ZJIIS. Therefore, periodic coverage surveys currently provide more complete and reliable results than the estimates based on ZJIIS alone. However, further improvement of completeness and accuracy of ZJIIS will likely allow more reliable and timely estimates in future. PMID:28696387

Linking FRRF Derived Photophysiology with Carbon-based Primary Productivity: Insights from Concepts of Cellular Energy Allocation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuback, N.; Schallenberg, C.; Duckham, C.; Flecken, M.; Maldonado, M. T.; Tortell, P. D.

2016-02-01

Active chlorophyll a fluorescence approaches, including fast repetition rate fluorometry (FRRF), have the potential to provide estimates of phytoplankton primary productivity at unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. FRRF-derived productivity rates are based on estimates of charge separation in photosystem II (ETRRCII), which must be converted into ecologically relevant units of carbon fixation. Understanding sources of variability in the coupling of ETRRCII and carbon fixation provides important physiological insight into phytoplankton photosynthesis, and is critical for the application of FRRF as a primary productivity measurement tool. We present data from a series of experiments during which we simultaneously measured phytoplankton carbon fixation and ETRRCII in the iron-limited NE subarctic Pacific. Our results show significant variability of the derived conversion factor (Ve:C/nPSII), with highest values observed under conditions of excess excitation pressure at the level of photosystem II, caused by high light and/or low iron. Our results will be discussed in the context of metabolic plasticity, which evolved in phytoplankton to simultaneously maximize growth and provide photoprotection under fluctuating light and limiting nutrient availabilities. Because the derived conversion factor is associated with conditions of excess light, it correlates with the expression of non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) in the pigment antenna, also derived from FRRF measurements. Our results demonstrate a significant correlation between NPQ and the conversion factor Ve:C/nPSII, and the potential of this relationship to improve FRRF-based estimates of phytoplankton carbon fixation rates is discussed.

Blending Multiple Nitrogen Dioxide Data Sources for Neighborhood Estimates of Long-Term Exposure for Health Research.

PubMed

Hanigan, Ivan C; Williamson, Grant J; Knibbs, Luke D; Horsley, Joshua; Rolfe, Margaret I; Cope, Martin; Barnett, Adrian G; Cowie, Christine T; Heyworth, Jane S; Serre, Marc L; Jalaludin, Bin; Morgan, Geoffrey G

2017-11-07

Exposure to traffic related nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) air pollution is associated with adverse health outcomes. Average pollutant concentrations for fixed monitoring sites are often used to estimate exposures for health studies, however these can be imprecise due to difficulty and cost of spatial modeling at the resolution of neighborhoods (e.g., a scale of tens of meters) rather than at a coarse scale (around several kilometers). The objective of this study was to derive improved estimates of neighborhood NO 2 concentrations by blending measurements with modeled predictions in Sydney, Australia (a low pollution environment). We implemented the Bayesian maximum entropy approach to blend data with uncertainty defined using informative priors. We compiled NO 2 data from fixed-site monitors, chemical transport models, and satellite-based land use regression models to estimate neighborhood annual average NO 2 . The spatial model produced a posterior probability density function of estimated annual average concentrations that spanned an order of magnitude from 3 to 35 ppb. Validation using independent data showed improvement, with root mean squared error improvement of 6% compared with the land use regression model and 16% over the chemical transport model. These estimates will be used in studies of health effects and should minimize misclassification bias.

Improving the Accuracy of Laplacian Estimation with Novel Variable Inter-Ring Distances Concentric Ring Electrodes

PubMed Central

Makeyev, Oleksandr; Besio, Walter G.

2016-01-01

Noninvasive concentric ring electrodes are a promising alternative to conventional disc electrodes. Currently, the superiority of tripolar concentric ring electrodes over disc electrodes, in particular, in accuracy of Laplacian estimation, has been demonstrated in a range of applications. In our recent work, we have shown that accuracy of Laplacian estimation can be improved with multipolar concentric ring electrodes using a general approach to estimation of the Laplacian for an (n + 1)-polar electrode with n rings using the (4n + 1)-point method for n ≥ 2. This paper takes the next step toward further improving the Laplacian estimate by proposing novel variable inter-ring distances concentric ring electrodes. Derived using a modified (4n + 1)-point method, linearly increasing and decreasing inter-ring distances tripolar (n = 2) and quadripolar (n = 3) electrode configurations are compared to their constant inter-ring distances counterparts. Finite element method modeling and analytic results are consistent and suggest that increasing inter-ring distances electrode configurations may decrease the truncation error resulting in more accurate Laplacian estimates compared to respective constant inter-ring distances configurations. For currently used tripolar electrode configuration, the truncation error may be decreased more than two-fold, while for the quadripolar configuration more than a six-fold decrease is expected. PMID:27294933

Improving the Accuracy of Laplacian Estimation with Novel Variable Inter-Ring Distances Concentric Ring Electrodes.

PubMed

Makeyev, Oleksandr; Besio, Walter G

2016-06-10

Noninvasive concentric ring electrodes are a promising alternative to conventional disc electrodes. Currently, the superiority of tripolar concentric ring electrodes over disc electrodes, in particular, in accuracy of Laplacian estimation, has been demonstrated in a range of applications. In our recent work, we have shown that accuracy of Laplacian estimation can be improved with multipolar concentric ring electrodes using a general approach to estimation of the Laplacian for an (n + 1)-polar electrode with n rings using the (4n + 1)-point method for n ≥ 2. This paper takes the next step toward further improving the Laplacian estimate by proposing novel variable inter-ring distances concentric ring electrodes. Derived using a modified (4n + 1)-point method, linearly increasing and decreasing inter-ring distances tripolar (n = 2) and quadripolar (n = 3) electrode configurations are compared to their constant inter-ring distances counterparts. Finite element method modeling and analytic results are consistent and suggest that increasing inter-ring distances electrode configurations may decrease the truncation error resulting in more accurate Laplacian estimates compared to respective constant inter-ring distances configurations. For currently used tripolar electrode configuration, the truncation error may be decreased more than two-fold, while for the quadripolar configuration more than a six-fold decrease is expected.

Optimal feedback scheme and universal time scaling for Hamiltonian parameter estimation.

PubMed

Yuan, Haidong; Fung, Chi-Hang Fred

2015-09-11

Time is a valuable resource and it is expected that a longer time period should lead to better precision in Hamiltonian parameter estimation. However, recent studies in quantum metrology have shown that in certain cases more time may even lead to worse estimations, which puts this intuition into question. In this Letter we show that by including feedback controls this intuition can be restored. By deriving asymptotically optimal feedback controls we quantify the maximal improvement feedback controls can provide in Hamiltonian parameter estimation and show a universal time scaling for the precision limit under the optimal feedback scheme. Our study reveals an intriguing connection between noncommutativity in the dynamics and the gain of feedback controls in Hamiltonian parameter estimation.

Wavelet Filtering to Reduce Conservatism in Aeroservoelastic Robust Stability Margins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brenner, Marty; Lind, Rick

1998-01-01

Wavelet analysis for filtering and system identification was used to improve the estimation of aeroservoelastic stability margins. The conservatism of the robust stability margins was reduced with parametric and nonparametric time-frequency analysis of flight data in the model validation process. Nonparametric wavelet processing of data was used to reduce the effects of external desirableness and unmodeled dynamics. Parametric estimates of modal stability were also extracted using the wavelet transform. Computation of robust stability margins for stability boundary prediction depends on uncertainty descriptions derived from the data for model validation. F-18 high Alpha Research Vehicle aeroservoelastic flight test data demonstrated improved robust stability prediction by extension of the stability boundary beyond the flight regime.

Evaluation of atmospheric correction algorithms for processing SeaWiFS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ransibrahmanakul, Varis; Stumpf, Richard; Ramachandran, Sathyadev; Hughes, Kent

2005-08-01

To enable the production of the best chlorophyll products from SeaWiFS data NOAA (Coastwatch and NOS) evaluated the various atmospheric correction algorithms by comparing the satellite derived water reflectance derived for each algorithm with in situ data. Gordon and Wang (1994) introduced a method to correct for Rayleigh and aerosol scattering in the atmosphere so that water reflectance may be derived from the radiance measured at the top of the atmosphere. However, since the correction assumed near infrared scattering to be negligible in coastal waters an invalid assumption, the method over estimates the atmospheric contribution and consequently under estimates water reflectance for the lower wavelength bands on extrapolation. Several improved methods to estimate near infrared correction exist: Siegel et al. (2000); Ruddick et al. (2000); Stumpf et al. (2002) and Stumpf et al. (2003), where an absorbing aerosol correction is also applied along with an additional 1.01% calibration adjustment for the 412 nm band. The evaluation show that the near infrared correction developed by Stumpf et al. (2003) result in an overall minimum error for U.S. waters. As of July 2004, NASA (SEADAS) has selected this as the default method for the atmospheric correction used to produce chlorophyll products.

A Short Tutorial on Inertial Navigation System and Global Positioning System Integration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smalling, Kyle M.; Eure, Kenneth W.

2015-01-01

The purpose of this document is to describe a simple method of integrating Inertial Navigation System (INS) information with Global Positioning System (GPS) information for an improved estimate of vehicle attitude and position. A simple two dimensional (2D) case is considered. The attitude estimates are derived from sensor data and used in the estimation of vehicle position and velocity through dead reckoning within the INS. The INS estimates are updated with GPS estimates using a Kalman filter. This tutorial is intended for the novice user with a focus on bringing the reader from raw sensor measurements to an integrated position and attitude estimate. An application is given using a remotely controlled ground vehicle operating in assumed 2D environment. The theory is developed first followed by an illustrative example.

Effects of control inputs on the estimation of stability and control parameters of a light airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cannaday, R. L.; Suit, W. T.

1977-01-01

The maximum likelihood parameter estimation technique was used to determine the values of stability and control derivatives from flight test data for a low-wing, single-engine, light airplane. Several input forms were used during the tests to investigate the consistency of parameter estimates as it relates to inputs. These consistencies were compared by using the ensemble variance and estimated Cramer-Rao lower bound. In addition, the relationship between inputs and parameter correlations was investigated. Results from the stabilator inputs are inconclusive but the sequence of rudder input followed by aileron input or aileron followed by rudder gave more consistent estimates than did rudder or ailerons individually. Also, square-wave inputs appeared to provide slightly improved consistency in the parameter estimates when compared to sine-wave inputs.

Can high resolution topographic surveys provide reliable grain size estimates?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pearson, Eleanor; Smith, Mark; Klaar, Megan; Brown, Lee

2017-04-01

High resolution topographic surveys contain a wealth of information that is not always exploited in the generation of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). In particular, several authors have related sub-grid scale topographic variability (or 'surface roughness') to particle grain size by deriving empirical relationships between the two. Such relationships would permit rapid analysis of the spatial distribution of grain size over entire river reaches, providing data to drive distributed hydraulic models and revolutionising monitoring of river restoration projects. However, comparison of previous roughness-grain-size relationships shows substantial variability between field sites and do not take into account differences in patch-scale facies. This study explains this variability by identifying the factors that influence roughness-grain-size relationships. Using 275 laboratory and field-based Structure-from-Motion (SfM) surveys, we investigate the influence of: inherent survey error; irregularity of natural gravels; particle shape; grain packing structure; sorting; and form roughness on roughness-grain-size relationships. A suite of empirical relationships is presented in the form of a decision tree which improves estimations of grain size. Results indicate that the survey technique itself is capable of providing accurate grain size estimates. By accounting for differences in patch facies, R2 was seen to improve from 0.769 to R2 > 0.9 for certain facies. However, at present, the method is unsuitable for poorly sorted gravel patches. In future, a combination of a surface roughness proxy with photosieving techniques using SfM-derived orthophotos may offer improvements on using either technique individually.

Semiparametric estimation of treatment effect in a pretest-posttest study.

PubMed

Leon, Selene; Tsiatis, Anastasios A; Davidian, Marie

2003-12-01

Inference on treatment effects in a pretest-posttest study is a routine objective in medicine, public health, and other fields. A number of approaches have been advocated. We take a semiparametric perspective, making no assumptions about the distributions of baseline and posttest responses. By representing the situation in terms of counterfactual random variables, we exploit recent developments in the literature on missing data and causal inference, to derive the class of all consistent treatment effect estimators, identify the most efficient such estimator, and outline strategies for implementation of estimators that may improve on popular methods. We demonstrate the methods and their properties via simulation and by application to a data set from an HIV clinical trial.

Investigating the Eddy Diffusivity Concept in the Coastal Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rypina, I.; Kirincich, A.; Lentz, S. J.; Sundermeyer, M. A.

2016-12-01

We test the validity, utility, and limitations of the lateral eddy diffusivity concept in a coastal environment through analyzing data from coupled drifter and dye releases within the footprint of a high-resolution (800 m) high-frequency radar south of Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts. Specifically, we investigate how well a combination of radar-based velocities and drifter-derived diffusivities can reproduce observed dye spreading over an 8-h time interval. A drifter-based estimate of an anisotropic diffusivity tensor is used to parameterize small-scale motions that are unresolved and under-resolved by the radar system. This leads to a significant improvement in the ability of the radar to reproduce the observed dye spreading. Our drifter-derived diffusivity estimates are O(10 m2/s), are consistent with the diffusivity inferred from aerial images of the dye taken using the quadcopter-mounted digital camera during the dye release, and are roughly an order of magnitude larger than diffusivity estimates of Okubo (O(1 m2/s)) for similar spatial scales ( 1 km). Despite the fact that the drifter-based diffusivity approach was successful in improving the ability of the radar to reproduce the observed dye spreading, the dispersion of drifters was, for the most part, not consistent with the diffusive spreading regime.

Intelligent nonsingular terminal sliding-mode control using MIMO Elman neural network for piezo-flexural nanopositioning stage.

PubMed

Lin, Faa-Jeng; Lee, Shih-Yang; Chou, Po-Huan

2012-12-01

The objective of this study is to develop an intelligent nonsingular terminal sliding-mode control (INTSMC) system using an Elman neural network (ENN) for the threedimensional motion control of a piezo-flexural nanopositioning stage (PFNS). First, the dynamic model of the PFNS is derived in detail. Then, to achieve robust, accurate trajectory-tracking performance, a nonsingular terminal sliding-mode control (NTSMC) system is proposed for the tracking of the reference contours. The steady-state response of the control system can be improved effectively because of the addition of the nonsingularity in the NTSMC. Moreover, to relax the requirements of the bounds and discard the switching function in NTSMC, an INTSMC system using a multi-input-multioutput (MIMO) ENN estimator is proposed to improve the control performance and robustness of the PFNS. The ENN estimator is proposed to estimate the hysteresis phenomenon and lumped uncertainty, including the system parameters and external disturbance of the PFNS online. Furthermore, the adaptive learning algorithms for the training of the parameters of the ENN online are derived using the Lyapunov stability theorem. In addition, two robust compensators are proposed to confront the minimum reconstructed errors in INTSMC. Finally, some experimental results for the tracking of various contours are given to demonstrate the validity of the proposed INTSMC system for PFNS.

Geocenter Coordinates from a Combined Processing of LEO and Ground-based GPS Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Männel, Benjamin; Rothacher, Markus

2017-04-01

The GPS observations provided by the global IGS (International GNSS Service) tracking network play an important role for the realization of a unique terrestrial reference frame that is accurate enough to allow the monitoring of the Earth's system. Combining these ground-based data with GPS observations tracked by high-quality dual-frequency receivers on-board Low Earth Orbiters (LEO) might help to further improve the realization of the terrestrial reference frame and the estimation of the geocenter coordinates, GPS satellite orbits and Earth rotation parameters (ERP). To assess the scope of improvement, we processed a network of 50 globally distributed and stable IGS-stations together with four LEOs (GRACE-A, GRACE-B, OSTM/Jason-2 and GOCE) over a time interval of three years (2010-2012). To ensure fully consistent solutions the zero-difference phase observations of the ground stations and LEOs were processed in a common least-square adjustment, estimating GPS orbits, LEO orbits, station coordinates, ERPs, site-specific tropospheric delays, satellite and receiver clocks and ambiguities. We present the significant impact of the individual LEOs and a combination of all four LEOs on geocenter coordinates derived by using a translational approach (also called network shift approach). In addition, we present geocenter coordinates derived from the same set of GPS observations by using a unified approach. This approach combines the translational and the degree-one approach by estimating translations and surface deformations simultaneously. Based on comparisons against each other and against geocenter time series derived by other techniques the effect of the selected approach is assessed.

Enhanced Assimilation of InSAR Displacement and Well Data for Groundwater Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdullin, A.; Jonsson, S.

2016-12-01

Ground deformation related to aquifer exploitation can cause damage to buildings and infrastructure leading to major economic losses and sometimes even loss of human lives. Understanding reservoir behavior helps in assessing possible future ground movement and water depletion hazard of a region under study. We have developed an InSAR-based data assimilation framework for groundwater reservoirs that efficiently incorporates InSAR data for improved reservoir management and forecasts. InSAR displacement data are integrated with the groundwater modeling software MODFLOW using ensemble-based assimilation approaches. We have examined several Ensemble Methods for updating model parameters such as hydraulic conductivity and model variables like pressure head while simultaneously providing an estimate of the uncertainty. A realistic three-dimensional aquifer model was built to demonstrate the capability of the Ensemble Methods incorporating InSAR-derived displacement measurements. We find from these numerical tests that including both ground deformation and well water level data as observations improves the RMSE of the hydraulic conductivity estimate by up to 20% comparing to using only one type of observations. The RMSE estimation of this property after the final time step is similar for Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), Ensemble Smoother (ES) and ES with multiple data assimilation (ES-MDA) methods. The results suggest that the high spatial and temporal resolution subsidence observations from InSAR are very helpful for accurately quantifying hydraulic parameters. We have tested the framework on several different examples and have found good performance in improving aquifer properties estimation, which should prove useful for groundwater management. Our ongoing work focuses on assimilating real InSAR-derived time series and hydraulic head data for calibrating and predicting aquifer properties of basin-wide groundwater systems.

Evaluation of precipitation estimates over CONUS derived from satellite, radar, and rain gauge datasets (2002-2012)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prat, O. P.; Nelson, B. R.

2014-10-01

We use a suite of quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) derived from satellite, radar, and surface observations to derive precipitation characteristics over CONUS for the period 2002-2012. This comparison effort includes satellite multi-sensor datasets (bias-adjusted TMPA 3B42, near-real time 3B42RT), radar estimates (NCEP Stage IV), and rain gauge observations. Remotely sensed precipitation datasets are compared with surface observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-Daily) and from the PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model). The comparisons are performed at the annual, seasonal, and daily scales over the River Forecast Centers (RFCs) for CONUS. Annual average rain rates present a satisfying agreement with GHCN-D for all products over CONUS (± 6%). However, differences at the RFC are more important in particular for near-real time 3B42RT precipitation estimates (-33 to +49%). At annual and seasonal scales, the bias-adjusted 3B42 presented important improvement when compared to its near real time counterpart 3B42RT. However, large biases remained for 3B42 over the Western US for higher average accumulation (≥ 5 mm day-1) with respect to GHCN-D surface observations. At the daily scale, 3B42RT performed poorly in capturing extreme daily precipitation (> 4 in day-1) over the Northwest. Furthermore, the conditional analysis and the contingency analysis conducted illustrated the challenge of retrieving extreme precipitation from remote sensing estimates.

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project: First Algorithm Intercomparison Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arkin, Phillip A.; Xie, Pingping

1994-01-01

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) was established by the World Climate Research Program to produce global analyses of the area- and time-averaged precipitation for use in climate research. To achieve the required spatial coverage, the GPCP uses simple rainfall estimates derived from IR and microwave satellite observations. In this paper, we describe the GPCP and its first Algorithm Intercomparison Project (AIP/1), which compared a variety of rainfall estimates derived from Geostationary Meteorological Satellite visible and IR observations and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) microwave observations with rainfall derived from a combination of radar and raingage data over the Japanese islands and the adjacent ocean regions during the June and mid-July through mid-August periods of 1989. To investigate potential improvements in the use of satellite IR data for the estimation of large-scale rainfall for the GPCP, the relationship between rainfall and the fractional coverage of cold clouds in the AIP/1 dataset is examined. Linear regressions between fractional coverage and rainfall are analyzed for a number of latitude-longitude areas and for a range of averaging times. The results show distinct differences in the character of the relationship for different portions of the area. These results suggest that the simple IR-based estimation technique currently used in the GPCP can be used to estimate rainfall for global tropical and subtropical areas, provided that a method for adjusting the proportional coefficient for varying areas and seasons can be determined.

The Effects of Population Size Histories on Estimates of Selection Coefficients from Time-Series Genetic Data

PubMed Central

Jewett, Ethan M.; Steinrücken, Matthias; Song, Yun S.

2016-01-01

Many approaches have been developed for inferring selection coefficients from time series data while accounting for genetic drift. These approaches have been motivated by the intuition that properly accounting for the population size history can significantly improve estimates of selective strengths. However, the improvement in inference accuracy that can be attained by modeling drift has not been characterized. Here, by comparing maximum likelihood estimates of selection coefficients that account for the true population size history with estimates that ignore drift by assuming allele frequencies evolve deterministically in a population of infinite size, we address the following questions: how much can modeling the population size history improve estimates of selection coefficients? How much can mis-inferred population sizes hurt inferences of selection coefficients? We conduct our analysis under the discrete Wright–Fisher model by deriving the exact probability of an allele frequency trajectory in a population of time-varying size and we replicate our results under the diffusion model. For both models, we find that ignoring drift leads to estimates of selection coefficients that are nearly as accurate as estimates that account for the true population history, even when population sizes are small and drift is high. This result is of interest because inference methods that ignore drift are widely used in evolutionary studies and can be many orders of magnitude faster than methods that account for population sizes. PMID:27550904

Extracting Prior Distributions from a Large Dataset of In-Situ Measurements to Support SWOT-based Estimation of River Discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagemann, M.; Gleason, C. J.

2017-12-01

The upcoming (2021) Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) NASA satellite mission aims, in part, to estimate discharge on major rivers worldwide using reach-scale measurements of stream width, slope, and height. Current formalizations of channel and floodplain hydraulics are insufficient to fully constrain this problem mathematically, resulting in an infinitely large solution set for any set of satellite observations. Recent work has reformulated this problem in a Bayesian statistical setting, in which the likelihood distributions derive directly from hydraulic flow-law equations. When coupled with prior distributions on unknown flow-law parameters, this formulation probabilistically constrains the parameter space, and results in a computationally tractable description of discharge. Using a curated dataset of over 200,000 in-situ acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) discharge measurements from over 10,000 USGS gaging stations throughout the United States, we developed empirical prior distributions for flow-law parameters that are not observable by SWOT, but that are required in order to estimate discharge. This analysis quantified prior uncertainties on quantities including cross-sectional area, at-a-station hydraulic geometry width exponent, and discharge variability, that are dependent on SWOT-observable variables including reach-scale statistics of width and height. When compared against discharge estimation approaches that do not use this prior information, the Bayesian approach using ADCP-derived priors demonstrated consistently improved performance across a range of performance metrics. This Bayesian approach formally transfers information from in-situ gaging stations to remote-sensed estimation of discharge, in which the desired quantities are not directly observable. Further investigation using large in-situ datasets is therefore a promising way forward in improving satellite-based estimates of river discharge.

Meaningful improvement in gait speed in hip fracture recovery.

PubMed

Alley, Dawn E; Hicks, Gregory E; Shardell, Michelle; Hawkes, William; Miller, Ram; Craik, Rebecca L; Mangione, Kathleen K; Orwig, Denise; Hochberg, Marc; Resnick, Barbara; Magaziner, Jay

2011-09-01

To estimate meaningful improvements in gait speed observed during recovery from hip fracture and to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of gait speed changes in detecting change in self-reported mobility. Secondary longitudinal data analysis from two randomized controlled trials Twelve hospitals in the Baltimore, Maryland, area. Two hundred seventeen women admitted with hip fracture. Usual gait speed and self-reported mobility (ability to walk 1 block and climb 1 flight of stairs) measured 2 and 12 months after fracture. Effect size-based estimates of meaningful differences were 0.03 for small differences and 0.09 for substantial differences. Depending on the anchor (stairs vs walking) and method (mean difference vs regression), anchor-based estimates ranged from 0.10 to 0.17 m/s for small meaningful improvements and 0.17 to 0.26 m/s for substantial meaningful improvement. Optimal gait speed cutpoints yielded low sensitivity (0.39-0.62) and specificity (0.57-0.76) for improvements in self-reported mobility. Results from this sample of women recovering from hip fracture provide only limited support for the 0.10-m/s cut point for substantial meaningful change previously identified in community-dwelling older adults experiencing declines in walking abilities. Anchor-based estimates and cut points derived from receiver operating characteristic curve analysis suggest that greater improvements in gait speed may be required for substantial perceived mobility improvement in female hip fracture patients. Furthermore, gait speed change performed poorly in discriminating change in self-reported mobility. Estimates of meaningful change in gait speed may differ based on the direction of change (improvement vs decline) or between patient populations. © 2011, Copyright the Authors. Journal compilation © 2011, The American Geriatrics Society.

Meaningful Improvement in Gait Speed in Hip Fracture Recovery

PubMed Central

Alley, Dawn E.; Hicks, Gregory E.; Shardell, Michelle; Hawkes, William; Miller, Ram; Craik, Rebecca L.; Mangione, Kathleen K.; Orwig, Denise; Hochberg, Marc; Resnick, Barbara; Magaziner, Jay

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVES To estimate meaningful improvements in gait speed observed during recovery from hip fracture and to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of gait speed changes in detecting change in self-reported mobility. DESIGN Secondary longitudinal data analysis from two randomized controlled trials SETTING Twelve hospitals in the Baltimore, Maryland, area. PARTICIPANTS Two hundred seventeen women admitted with hip fracture. MEASUREMENTS Usual gait speed and self-reported mobility (ability to walk 1 block and climb 1 flight of stairs) measured 2 and 12 months after fracture. RESULTS Effect size–based estimates of meaningful differences were 0.03 for small differences and 0.09 for substantial differences. Depending on the anchor (stairs vs walking) and method (mean difference vs regression), anchor-based estimates ranged from 0.10 to 0.17 m/s for small meaningful improvements and 0.17 to 0.26 m/s for substantial meaningful improvement. Optimal gait speed cut-points yielded low sensitivity (0.39–0.62) and specificity (0.57–0.76) for improvements in self-reported mobility. CONCLUSION Results from this sample of women recovering from hip fracture provide only limited support for the 0.10-m/s cut point for substantial meaningful change previously identified in community-dwelling older adults experiencing declines in walking abilities. Anchor-based estimates and cut points derived from receiver operating characteristic curve analysis suggest that greater improvements in gait speed may be required for substantial perceived mobility improvement in female hip fracture patients. Furthermore, gait speed change performed poorly in discriminating change in self-reported mobility. Estimates of meaningful change in gait speed may differ based on the direction of change (improvement vs decline) or between patient populations. PMID:21883109

Improved estimations of gross primary production using satellite-derived photosynthetically active radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Wenwen; Yuan, Wenping; Liang, Shunlin; Zhang, Xiaotong; Dong, Wenjie; Xia, Jiangzhou; Fu, Yang; Chen, Yang; Liu, Dan; Zhang, Qiang

2014-01-01

Terrestrial vegetation gross primary production (GPP) is an important variable in determining the global carbon cycle as well as the interannual variability of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. The accuracy of GPP simulation is substantially affected by several critical model drivers, one of the most important of which is photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) which directly determines the photosynthesis processes of plants. In this study, we examined the impacts of uncertainties in radiation products on GPP estimates in China. Two satellite-based radiation products (GLASS and ISCCP), three reanalysis products (MERRA, ECMWF, and NCEP), and a blended product of reanalysis and observations (Princeton) were evaluated based on observations at hundreds of sites. The results revealed the highest accuracy for two satellite-based products over various temporal and spatial scales. The three reanalysis products and the Princeton product tended to overestimate radiation. The GPP simulation driven by the GLASS product exhibited the highest consistency with those derived from site observations. Model validation at 11 eddy covariance sites suggested the highest model performance when utilizing the GLASS product. Annual GPP in China driven by GLASS was 5.55 Pg C yr-1, which was 68.85%-94.87% of those derived from the other products. The results implied that the high spatial resolution, satellite-derived GLASS PAR significantly decreased the uncertainty of the GPP estimates at the regional scale.

Impact of improved information on the structure of world grain trade. [wheat

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

The benefits to be derived by the United States from improvements in global grain crop forecasting capability are discussed. The improvements in forecasting accuracy, which are a result of the use of satellite technology in conjunction with existing ground based estimating procedures are described. The degree of forecasting accuracy to be obtained from satellite technology is also examined. Specific emphasis is placed on wheat production in seven countries/regions: the United States; Canada; Argentina; Australia; Western Europe; the USSR; and all other countries in a group.

Observation model and parameter partials for the JPL VLBI parameter estimation software MASTERFIT-1987

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sovers, O. J.; Fanselow, J. L.

1987-01-01

This report is a revision of the document of the same title (1986), dated August 1, which it supersedes. Model changes during 1986 and 1987 included corrections for antenna feed rotation, refraction in modelling antenna axis offsets, and an option to employ improved values of the semiannual and annual nutation amplitudes. Partial derivatives of the observables with respect to an additional parameter (surface temperature) are now available. New versions of two figures representing the geometric delay are incorporated. The expressions for the partial derivatives with respect to the nutation parameters have been corrected to include contributions from the dependence of UTI on nutation. The authors hope to publish revisions of this document in the future, as modeling improvements warrant.

Observation model and parameter partials for the JPL VLBI parameter estimation software MASTERFIT-1987

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sovers, O. J.; Fanselow, J. L.

1987-12-01

This report is a revision of the document of the same title (1986), dated August 1, which it supersedes. Model changes during 1986 and 1987 included corrections for antenna feed rotation, refraction in modelling antenna axis offsets, and an option to employ improved values of the semiannual and annual nutation amplitudes. Partial derivatives of the observables with respect to an additional parameter (surface temperature) are now available. New versions of two figures representing the geometric delay are incorporated. The expressions for the partial derivatives with respect to the nutation parameters have been corrected to include contributions from the dependence of UTI on nutation. The authors hope to publish revisions of this document in the future, as modeling improvements warrant.

Model Parameter Estimation Using Ensemble Data Assimilation: A Case with the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model NICAM and the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotsuki, Shunji; Terasaki, Koji; Yashiro, Hasashi; Tomita, Hirofumi; Satoh, Masaki; Miyoshi, Takemasa

2017-04-01

This study aims to improve precipitation forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models through effective use of satellite-derived precipitation data. Kotsuki et al. (2016, JGR-A) successfully improved the precipitation forecasts by assimilating the Japan Aerospace eXploration Agency (JAXA)'s Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) data into the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) at 112-km horizontal resolution. Kotsuki et al. mitigated the non-Gaussianity of the precipitation variables by the Gaussian transform method for observed and forecasted precipitation using the previous 30-day precipitation data. This study extends the previous study by Kotsuki et al. and explores an online estimation of model parameters using ensemble data assimilation. We choose two globally-uniform parameters, one is the cloud-to-rain auto-conversion parameter of the Berry's scheme for large scale condensation and the other is the relative humidity threshold of the Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization scheme. We perform the online-estimation of the two model parameters with an ensemble transform Kalman filter by assimilating the GSMaP precipitation data. The estimated parameters improve the analyzed and forecasted mixing ratio in the lower troposphere. Therefore, the parameter estimation would be a useful technique to improve the NWP models and their forecasts. This presentation will include the most recent progress up to the time of the symposium.

Forest carbon dynamics associated with growth and disturbances in Oklahoma and Texas, 1992-2006

Treesearch

Daolan Zheng; Linda S. Heath; Mark J. Ducey; James E. Smith

2013-01-01

Quantifying forest carbon changes associated with growth and major disturbances is important for management of greenhouse gas emissions related to forests. Regional-level approaches with improved local growth data may refine estimates obtained using coarser resolution information. This study integrates remote-sensing-derived land cover change products, harvest data,...

Retrieval of Cloud Properties for Partially Cloud-Filled Pixels During CRYSTAL-FACE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, L.; Minnis, P.; Smith, W. L.; Khaiyer, M. M.; Heck, P. W.; Sun-Mack, S.; Uttal, T.; Comstock, J.

2003-12-01

Partially cloud-filled pixels can be a significant problem for remote sensing of cloud properties. Generally, the optical depth and effective particle sizes are often too small or too large, respectively, when derived from radiances that are assumed to be overcast but contain radiation from both clear and cloud areas within the satellite imager field of view. This study presents a method for reducing the impact of such partially cloud field pixels by estimating the cloud fraction within each pixel using higher resolution visible (VIS, 0.65mm) imager data. Although the nominal resolution for most channels on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) imager and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Terra are 4 and 1 km, respectively, both instruments also take VIS channel data at 1 km and 0.25 km, respectively. Thus, it may be possible to obtain an improved estimate of cloud fraction within the lower resolution pixels by using the information contained in the higher resolution VIS data. GOES and MODIS multi-spectral data, taken during the Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers - Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE), are analyzed with the algorithm used for the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) and the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) to derive cloud amount, temperature, height, phase, effective particle size, optical depth, and water path. Normally, the algorithm assumes that each pixel is either entirely clear or cloudy. In this study, a threshold method is applied to the higher resolution VIS data to estimate the partial cloud fraction within each low-resolution pixel. The cloud properties are then derived from the observed low-resolution radiances using the cloud cover estimate to properly extract the radiances due only to the cloudy part of the scene. This approach is applied to both GOES and MODIS data to estimate the improvement in the retrievals for each resolution. Results are compared with the radar reflectivity techniques employed by the NOAA ETL MMCR and the PARSL 94 GHz radars located at the CRYSTAL-FACE Eastern & Western Ground Sites, respectively. This technique is most likely to yield improvements for low and midlevel layer clouds that have little thermal variability in cloud height.

A Simple Noise Correction Scheme for Diffusional Kurtosis Imaging

PubMed Central

Glenn, G. Russell; Tabesh, Ali; Jensen, Jens H.

2014-01-01

Purpose Diffusional kurtosis imaging (DKI) is sensitive to the effects of signal noise due to strong diffusion weightings and higher order modeling of the diffusion weighted signal. A simple noise correction scheme is proposed to remove the majority of the noise bias in the estimated diffusional kurtosis. Methods Weighted linear least squares (WLLS) fitting together with a voxel-wise, subtraction-based noise correction from multiple, independent acquisitions are employed to reduce noise bias in DKI data. The method is validated in phantom experiments and demonstrated for in vivo human brain for DKI-derived parameter estimates. Results As long as the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for the most heavily diffusion weighted images is greater than 2.1, errors in phantom diffusional kurtosis estimates are found to be less than 5 percent with noise correction, but as high as 44 percent for uncorrected estimates. In human brain, noise correction is also shown to improve diffusional kurtosis estimates derived from measurements made with low SNR. Conclusion The proposed correction technique removes the majority of noise bias from diffusional kurtosis estimates in noisy phantom data and is applicable to DKI of human brain. Features of the method include computational simplicity and ease of integration into standard WLLS DKI post-processing algorithms. PMID:25172990

Heart rate prediction for coronary artery disease patients (CAD): Results of a clinical pilot study.

PubMed

Müller-von Aschwege, Frerk; Workowski, Anke; Willemsen, Detlev; Müller, Sebastian M; Hein, Andreas

2015-01-01

This paper describes the results of a pilot study with cardiac patients based on information that can be derived from a smartphone. The idea behind the study is to design a model for estimating the heart rate of a patient before an outdoor walking session for track planning, as well as using the model for guidance during an outdoor session. The model allows estimation of the heart rate several minutes in advance to guide the patient and avoid overstrain before its occurrence. This paper describes the first results of the clinical pilot study with cardiac patients taking β-blockers. 9 patients have been tested on a treadmill and during three outdoor sessions each. The results have been derived and three levels of improvement have been tested by cross validation. The overall result is an average Median Absolute Deviation (MAD) of 4.26 BPM between measured heart rate and smartphone sensor based model estimation.

Novel Oversampling Technique for Improving Signal-to-Quantization Noise Ratio on Accelerometer-Based Smart Jerk Sensors in CNC Applications.

PubMed

Rangel-Magdaleno, Jose J; Romero-Troncoso, Rene J; Osornio-Rios, Roque A; Cabal-Yepez, Eduardo

2009-01-01

Jerk monitoring, defined as the first derivative of acceleration, has become a major issue in computerized numeric controlled (CNC) machines. Several works highlight the necessity of measuring jerk in a reliable way for improving production processes. Nowadays, the computation of jerk is done by finite differences of the acceleration signal, computed at the Nyquist rate, which leads to low signal-to-quantization noise ratio (SQNR) during the estimation. The novelty of this work is the development of a smart sensor for jerk monitoring from a standard accelerometer, which has improved SQNR. The proposal is based on oversampling techniques that give a better estimation of jerk than that produced by a Nyquist-rate differentiator. Simulations and experimental results are presented to show the overall methodology performance.

Improvements in GRACE Gravity Field Determination through Stochastic Observation Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCullough, C.; Bettadpur, S. V.

2016-12-01

Current unconstrained Release 05 GRACE gravity field solutions from the Center for Space Research (CSR RL05) assume random observation errors following an independent multivariate Gaussian distribution. This modeling of observations, a simplifying assumption, fails to account for long period, correlated errors arising from inadequacies in the background force models. Fully modeling the errors inherent in the observation equations, through the use of a full observation covariance (modeling colored noise), enables optimal combination of GPS and inter-satellite range-rate data and obviates the need for estimating kinematic empirical parameters during the solution process. Most importantly, fully modeling the observation errors drastically improves formal error estimates of the spherical harmonic coefficients, potentially enabling improved uncertainty quantification of scientific results derived from GRACE and optimizing combinations of GRACE with independent data sets and a priori constraints.

Focused ultrasound transducer spatial peak intensity estimation: a comparison of methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Civale, John; Rivens, Ian; Shaw, Adam; ter Haar, Gail

2018-03-01

Characterisation of the spatial peak intensity at the focus of high intensity focused ultrasound transducers is difficult because of the risk of damage to hydrophone sensors at the high focal pressures generated. Hill et al (1994 Ultrasound Med. Biol. 20 259-69) provided a simple equation for estimating spatial-peak intensity for solid spherical bowl transducers using measured acoustic power and focal beamwidth. This paper demonstrates theoretically and experimentally that this expression is only strictly valid for spherical bowl transducers without a central (imaging) aperture. A hole in the centre of the transducer results in over-estimation of the peak intensity. Improved strategies for determining focal peak intensity from a measurement of total acoustic power are proposed. Four methods are compared: (i) a solid spherical bowl approximation (after Hill et al 1994 Ultrasound Med. Biol. 20 259-69), (ii) a numerical method derived from theory, (iii) a method using measured sidelobe to focal peak pressure ratio, and (iv) a method for measuring the focal power fraction (FPF) experimentally. Spatial-peak intensities were estimated for 8 transducers at three drive powers levels: low (approximately 1 W), moderate (~10 W) and high (20-70 W). The calculated intensities were compared with those derived from focal peak pressure measurements made using a calibrated hydrophone. The FPF measurement method was found to provide focal peak intensity estimates that agreed most closely (within 15%) with the hydrophone measurements, followed by the pressure ratio method (within 20%). The numerical method was found to consistently over-estimate focal peak intensity (+40% on average), however, for transducers with a central hole it was more accurate than using the solid bowl assumption (+70% over-estimation). In conclusion, the ability to make use of an automated beam plotting system, and a hydrophone with good spatial resolution, greatly facilitates characterisation of the FPF, and consequently gives improved confidence in estimating spatial peak intensity from measurement of acoustic power.

A methodological framework for detecting ulcers' risk in diabetic foot subjects by combining gait analysis, a new musculoskeletal foot model and a foot finite element model.

PubMed

Scarton, Alessandra; Guiotto, Annamaria; Malaquias, Tiago; Spolaor, Fabiola; Sinigaglia, Giacomo; Cobelli, Claudio; Jonkers, Ilse; Sawacha, Zimi

2018-02-01

Diabetic foot is one of the most debilitating complications of diabetes and may lead to plantar ulcers. In the last decade, gait analysis, musculoskeletal modelling (MSM) and finite element modelling (FEM) have shown their ability to contribute to diabetic foot prevention and suggested that the origin of the plantar ulcers is in deeper tissue layers rather than on the plantar surface. Hence the aim of the current work is to develop a methodology that improves FEM-derived foot internal stresses prediction, for diabetic foot prevention applications. A 3D foot FEM was combined with MSM derived force to predict the sites of excessive internal stresses on the foot. In vivo gait analysis data, and an MRI scan of a foot from a healthy subject were acquired and used to develop a six degrees of freedom (6 DOF) foot MSM and a 3D subject-specific foot FEM. Ankle kinematics were applied as boundary conditions to the FEM together with: 1. only Ground Reaction Forces (GRFs); 2. OpenSim derived extrinsic muscles forces estimated with a standard OpenSim MSM; 3. extrinsic muscle forces derived through the (6 DOF) foot MSM; 4. intrinsic and extrinsic muscles forces derived through the 6 DOF foot MSM. For model validation purposes, simulated peak pressures were extracted and compared with those measured experimentally. The importance of foot muscles in controlling plantar pressure distribution and internal stresses is confirmed by the improved accuracy in the estimation of the peak pressures obtained with the inclusion of intrinsic and extrinsic muscle forces. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Scanning linear estimation: improvements over region of interest (ROI) methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kupinski, Meredith K.; Clarkson, Eric W.; Barrett, Harrison H.

2013-03-01

In tomographic medical imaging, a signal activity is typically estimated by summing voxels from a reconstructed image. We introduce an alternative estimation scheme that operates on the raw projection data and offers a substantial improvement, as measured by the ensemble mean-square error (EMSE), when compared to using voxel values from a maximum-likelihood expectation-maximization (MLEM) reconstruction. The scanning-linear (SL) estimator operates on the raw projection data and is derived as a special case of maximum-likelihood estimation with a series of approximations to make the calculation tractable. The approximated likelihood accounts for background randomness, measurement noise and variability in the parameters to be estimated. When signal size and location are known, the SL estimate of signal activity is unbiased, i.e. the average estimate equals the true value. By contrast, unpredictable bias arising from the null functions of the imaging system affect standard algorithms that operate on reconstructed data. The SL method is demonstrated for two different tasks: (1) simultaneously estimating a signal’s size, location and activity; (2) for a fixed signal size and location, estimating activity. Noisy projection data are realistically simulated using measured calibration data from the multi-module multi-resolution small-animal SPECT imaging system. For both tasks, the same set of images is reconstructed using the MLEM algorithm (80 iterations), and the average and maximum values within the region of interest (ROI) are calculated for comparison. This comparison shows dramatic improvements in EMSE for the SL estimates. To show that the bias in ROI estimates affects not only absolute values but also relative differences, such as those used to monitor the response to therapy, the activity estimation task is repeated for three different signal sizes.

A Pilot Study to Evaluate California's Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions Using Atmospheric Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graven, H. D.; Fischer, M. L.; Lueker, T.; Guilderson, T.; Brophy, K. J.; Keeling, R. F.; Arnold, T.; Bambha, R.; Callahan, W.; Campbell, J. E.; Cui, X.; Frankenberg, C.; Hsu, Y.; Iraci, L. T.; Jeong, S.; Kim, J.; LaFranchi, B. W.; Lehman, S.; Manning, A.; Michelsen, H. A.; Miller, J. B.; Newman, S.; Paplawsky, B.; Parazoo, N.; Sloop, C.; Walker, S.; Whelan, M.; Wunch, D.

2016-12-01

Atmospheric CO2 concentration is influenced by human activities and by natural exchanges. Studies of CO2 fluxes using atmospheric CO2 measurements typically focus on natural exchanges and assume that CO2 emissions by fossil fuel combustion and cement production are well-known from inventory estimates. However, atmospheric observation-based or "top-down" studies could potentially provide independent methods for evaluating fossil fuel CO2 emissions, in support of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate climate change. Observation-based estimates of fossil fuel-derived CO2 may also improve estimates of biospheric CO2 exchange, which could help to characterize carbon storage and climate change mitigation by terrestrial ecosystems. We have been developing a top-down framework for estimating fossil fuel CO2 emissions in California that uses atmospheric observations and modeling. California is implementing the "Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006" to reduce total greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, and it has a diverse array of ecosystems that may serve as CO2 sources or sinks. We performed three month-long field campaigns in different seasons in 2014-15 to collect flask samples from a state-wide network of 10 towers. Using measurements of radiocarbon in CO2, we estimate the fossil fuel-derived CO2 present in the flask samples, relative to marine background air observed at coastal sites. Radiocarbon (14C) is not present in fossil fuel-derived CO2 because of radioactive decay over millions of years, so fossil fuel emissions cause a measurable decrease in the 14C/C ratio in atmospheric CO2. We compare the observations of fossil fuel-derived CO2 to simulations based on atmospheric modeling and published fossil fuel flux estimates, and adjust the fossil fuel flux estimates in a statistical inversion that takes account of several uncertainties. We will present the results of the top-down technique to estimate fossil fuel emissions for our field campaigns in California, and we will give an outlook for future development of the technique in California.

An algorithmic approach to crustal deformation analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iz, Huseyin Baki

1987-01-01

In recent years the analysis of crustal deformation measurements has become important as a result of current improvements in geodetic methods and an increasing amount of theoretical and observational data provided by several earth sciences. A first-generation data analysis algorithm which combines a priori information with current geodetic measurements was proposed. Relevant methods which can be used in the algorithm were discussed. Prior information is the unifying feature of this algorithm. Some of the problems which may arise through the use of a priori information in the analysis were indicated and preventive measures were demonstrated. The first step in the algorithm is the optimal design of deformation networks. The second step in the algorithm identifies the descriptive model of the deformation field. The final step in the algorithm is the improved estimation of deformation parameters. Although deformation parameters are estimated in the process of model discrimination, they can further be improved by the use of a priori information about them. According to the proposed algorithm this information must first be tested against the estimates calculated using the sample data only. Null-hypothesis testing procedures were developed for this purpose. Six different estimators which employ a priori information were examined. Emphasis was put on the case when the prior information is wrong and analytical expressions for possible improvements under incompatible prior information were derived.

Improving BeiDou real-time precise point positioning with numerical weather models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Cuixian; Li, Xingxing; Zus, Florian; Heinkelmann, Robert; Dick, Galina; Ge, Maorong; Wickert, Jens; Schuh, Harald

2017-09-01

Precise positioning with the current Chinese BeiDou Navigation Satellite System is proven to be of comparable accuracy to the Global Positioning System, which is at centimeter level for the horizontal components and sub-decimeter level for the vertical component. But the BeiDou precise point positioning (PPP) shows its limitation in requiring a relatively long convergence time. In this study, we develop a numerical weather model (NWM) augmented PPP processing algorithm to improve BeiDou precise positioning. Tropospheric delay parameters, i.e., zenith delays, mapping functions, and horizontal delay gradients, derived from short-range forecasts from the Global Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are applied into BeiDou real-time PPP. Observational data from stations that are capable of tracking the BeiDou constellation from the International GNSS Service (IGS) Multi-GNSS Experiments network are processed, with the introduced NWM-augmented PPP and the standard PPP processing. The accuracy of tropospheric delays derived from NCEP is assessed against with the IGS final tropospheric delay products. The positioning results show that an improvement in convergence time up to 60.0 and 66.7% for the east and vertical components, respectively, can be achieved with the NWM-augmented PPP solution compared to the standard PPP solutions, while only slight improvement in the solution convergence can be found for the north component. A positioning accuracy of 5.7 and 5.9 cm for the east component is achieved with the standard PPP that estimates gradients and the one that estimates no gradients, respectively, in comparison to 3.5 cm of the NWM-augmented PPP, showing an improvement of 38.6 and 40.1%. Compared to the accuracy of 3.7 and 4.1 cm for the north component derived from the two standard PPP solutions, the one of the NWM-augmented PPP solution is improved to 2.0 cm, by about 45.9 and 51.2%. The positioning accuracy for the up component improves from 11.4 and 13.2 cm with the two standard PPP solutions to 8.0 cm with the NWM-augmented PPP solution, an improvement of 29.8 and 39.4%, respectively.

Pre- and postprocessing techniques for determining goodness of computational meshes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oden, J. Tinsley; Westermann, T.; Bass, J. M.

1993-01-01

Research in error estimation, mesh conditioning, and solution enhancement for finite element, finite difference, and finite volume methods has been incorporated into AUDITOR, a modern, user-friendly code, which operates on 2D and 3D unstructured neutral files to improve the accuracy and reliability of computational results. Residual error estimation capabilities provide local and global estimates of solution error in the energy norm. Higher order results for derived quantities may be extracted from initial solutions. Within the X-MOTIF graphical user interface, extensive visualization capabilities support critical evaluation of results in linear elasticity, steady state heat transfer, and both compressible and incompressible fluid dynamics.

Impact of TRMM and SSM/I-derived Precipitation and Moisture Data on the GEOS Global Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hou, Arthur Y.; Zhang, Sara Q.; daSilva, Arlindo M.; Olson, William S.

1999-01-01

Current global analyses contain significant errors in primary hydrological fields such as precipitation, evaporation, and related cloud and moisture in the tropics. The Data Assimilation Office at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of space-based rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) estimates to constrain these hydrological parameters in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global data assimilation system. We present results showing that assimilating the 6-hour averaged rain rates and TPW estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) instruments improves not only the precipitation and moisture estimates but also reduce state-dependent systematic errors in key climate parameters directly linked to convection such as the outgoing longwave radiation, clouds, and the large-scale circulation. The improved analysis also improves short-range forecasts beyond 1 day, but the impact is relatively modest compared with improvements in the time-averaged analysis. The study shows that, in the presence of biases and other errors of the forecast model, improving the short-range forecast is not necessarily prerequisite for improving the assimilation as a climate data set. The full impact of a given type of observation on the assimilated data set should not be measured solely in terms of forecast skills.

Potential Utility of the Real-Time TMPA-RT Precipitation Estimates in Streamflow Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Su, Fengge; Gao, Huilin; Huffman, George J.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

2010-01-01

We investigate the potential utility of the real-time Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA-RT) data for streamflow prediction, both through direct comparisons of TMPA-RT estimates with a gridded gauge product, and through evaluation of streamflow simulations over four tributaries of La Plata Basin (LPB) in South America using the two precipitation products. Our assessments indicate that the relative accuracy and the hydrologic performance of TMPA-RT-based streamflow simulations generally improved after February 2005. The improvements in TMPA-RT since 2005 are closely related to upgrades in the TMPA-RT algorithm in early February, 2005 which include use of additional microwave sensors (AMSR-E and AMSU-B) and implementation of different calibration schemes. Our work suggests considerable potential for hydrologic prediction using purely satellite-derived precipitation estimates (no adjustments by in situ gauges) in parts of the globe where in situ observations are sparse.

Impact of Satellite Remote Sensing Data on Simulations of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We estimated surface salinity flux and solar penetration from satellite data, and performed model simulations to examine the impact of including the satellite estimates on temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen distributions on the Louisiana continental shelf (LCS) near the annual hypoxic zone. Rainfall data from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) were used for the salinity flux, and the diffuse attenuation coefficient (Kd) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were used for solar penetration. Improvements in the model results in comparison with in situ observations occurred when the two types of satellite data were included. Without inclusion of the satellite-derived surface salinity flux, realistic monthly variability in the model salinity fields was observed, but important inter-annual variability wasmissed. Without inclusion of the satellite-derived light attenuation, model bottom water temperatures were too high nearshore due to excessive penetration of solar irradiance. In general, these salinity and temperature errors led to model stratification that was too weak, and the model failed to capture observed spatial and temporal variability in water-column vertical stratification. Inclusion of the satellite data improved temperature and salinity predictions and the vertical stratification was strengthened, which improved prediction of bottom-water dissolved oxygen. The model-predicted area of bottom-water hypoxia on the

X-29A Lateral-Directional Stability and Control Derivatives Extracted From High-Angle-of-Attack Flight Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iliff, Kenneth W.; Wang, Kon-Sheng Charles Wang

1996-01-01

The lateral-directional stability and control derivatives of the X-29A number 2 are extracted from flight data over an angle-of-attack range of 4 degrees to 53 degrees using a parameter identification algorithm. The algorithm uses the linearized aircraft equations of motion and a maximum likelihood estimator in the presence of state and measurement noise. State noise is used to model the uncommanded forcing function caused by unsteady aerodynamics over the aircraft at angles of attack above 15 degrees. The results supported the flight-envelope-expansion phase of the X-29A number 2 by helping to update the aerodynamic mathematical model, to improve the real-time simulator, and to revise flight control system laws. Effects of the aircraft high gain flight control system on maneuver quality and the estimated derivatives are also discussed. The derivatives are plotted as functions of angle of attack and compared with the predicted aerodynamic database. Agreement between predicted and flight values is quite good for some derivatives such as the lateral force due to sideslip, the lateral force due to rudder deflection, and the rolling moment due to roll rate. The results also show significant differences in several important derivatives such as the rolling moment due to sideslip, the yawing moment due to sideslip, the yawing moment due to aileron deflection, and the yawing moment due to rudder deflection.

A novel Bayesian respiratory motion model to estimate and resolve uncertainty in image-guided cardiac interventions.

PubMed

Peressutti, Devis; Penney, Graeme P; Housden, R James; Kolbitsch, Christoph; Gomez, Alberto; Rijkhorst, Erik-Jan; Barratt, Dean C; Rhode, Kawal S; King, Andrew P

2013-05-01

In image-guided cardiac interventions, respiratory motion causes misalignments between the pre-procedure roadmap of the heart used for guidance and the intra-procedure position of the heart, reducing the accuracy of the guidance information and leading to potentially dangerous consequences. We propose a novel technique for motion-correcting the pre-procedural information that combines a probabilistic MRI-derived affine motion model with intra-procedure real-time 3D echocardiography (echo) images in a Bayesian framework. The probabilistic model incorporates a measure of confidence in its motion estimates which enables resolution of the potentially conflicting information supplied by the model and the echo data. Unlike models proposed so far, our method allows the final motion estimate to deviate from the model-produced estimate according to the information provided by the echo images, so adapting to the complex variability of respiratory motion. The proposed method is evaluated using gold-standard MRI-derived motion fields and simulated 3D echo data for nine volunteers and real 3D live echo images for four volunteers. The Bayesian method is compared to 5 other motion estimation techniques and results show mean/max improvements in estimation accuracy of 10.6%/18.9% for simulated echo images and 20.8%/41.5% for real 3D live echo data, over the best comparative estimation method. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improved Prediction of Quasi-Global Vegetation Conditions Using Remotely-Sensed Surface Soil Moisture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bolten, John; Crow, Wade

2012-01-01

The added value of satellite-based surface soil moisture retrievals for agricultural drought monitoring is assessed by calculating the lagged rank correlation between remotely-sensed vegetation indices (VI) and soil moisture estimates obtained both before and after the assimilation of surface soil moisture retrievals derived from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS (AMSR-E) into a soil water balance model. Higher soil moisture/VI lag correlations imply an enhanced ability to predict future vegetation conditions using estimates of current soil moisture. Results demonstrate that the assimilation of AMSR-E surface soil moisture retrievals substantially improve the performance of a global drought monitoring system - particularly in sparsely-instrumented areas of the world where high-quality rainfall observations are unavailable.

An error covariance model for sea surface topography and velocity derived from TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tsaoussi, Lucia S.; Koblinsky, Chester J.

1994-01-01

In order to facilitate the use of satellite-derived sea surface topography and velocity oceanographic models, methodology is presented for deriving the total error covariance and its geographic distribution from TOPEX/POSEIDON measurements. The model is formulated using a parametric model fit to the altimeter range observations. The topography and velocity modeled with spherical harmonic expansions whose coefficients are found through optimal adjustment to the altimeter range residuals using Bayesian statistics. All other parameters, including the orbit, geoid, surface models, and range corrections are provided as unadjusted parameters. The maximum likelihood estimates and errors are derived from the probability density function of the altimeter range residuals conditioned with a priori information. Estimates of model errors for the unadjusted parameters are obtained from the TOPEX/POSEIDON postlaunch verification results and the error covariances for the orbit and the geoid, except for the ocean tides. The error in the ocean tides is modeled, first, as the difference between two global tide models and, second, as the correction to the present tide model, the correction derived from the TOPEX/POSEIDON data. A formal error covariance propagation scheme is used to derive the total error. Our global total error estimate for the TOPEX/POSEIDON topography relative to the geoid for one 10-day period is found tio be 11 cm RMS. When the error in the geoid is removed, thereby providing an estimate of the time dependent error, the uncertainty in the topography is 3.5 cm root mean square (RMS). This level of accuracy is consistent with direct comparisons of TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter heights with tide gauge measurements at 28 stations. In addition, the error correlation length scales are derived globally in both east-west and north-south directions, which should prove useful for data assimilation. The largest error correlation length scales are found in the tropics. Errors in the velocity field are smallest in midlatitude regions. For both variables the largest errors caused by uncertainty in the geoid. More accurate representations of the geoid await a dedicated geopotential satellite mission. Substantial improvements in the accuracy of ocean tide models are expected in the very near future from research with TOPEX/POSEIDON data.

Risk Classification with an Adaptive Naive Bayes Kernel Machine Model.

PubMed

Minnier, Jessica; Yuan, Ming; Liu, Jun S; Cai, Tianxi

2015-04-22

Genetic studies of complex traits have uncovered only a small number of risk markers explaining a small fraction of heritability and adding little improvement to disease risk prediction. Standard single marker methods may lack power in selecting informative markers or estimating effects. Most existing methods also typically do not account for non-linearity. Identifying markers with weak signals and estimating their joint effects among many non-informative markers remains challenging. One potential approach is to group markers based on biological knowledge such as gene structure. If markers in a group tend to have similar effects, proper usage of the group structure could improve power and efficiency in estimation. We propose a two-stage method relating markers to disease risk by taking advantage of known gene-set structures. Imposing a naive bayes kernel machine (KM) model, we estimate gene-set specific risk models that relate each gene-set to the outcome in stage I. The KM framework efficiently models potentially non-linear effects of predictors without requiring explicit specification of functional forms. In stage II, we aggregate information across gene-sets via a regularization procedure. Estimation and computational efficiency is further improved with kernel principle component analysis. Asymptotic results for model estimation and gene set selection are derived and numerical studies suggest that the proposed procedure could outperform existing procedures for constructing genetic risk models.

Improved Estimation of Electron Temperature from Rocket-borne Impedance Probes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowland, D. E.; Wolfinger, K.; Stamm, J. D.

2017-12-01

The impedance probe technique is a well known method for determining high accuracy measurements of electron number density in the Earth's ionosphere. We present analysis of impedance probe data from several sounding rockets at low, mid-, and auroral latitudes, including high cadence estimates of the electron temperature, derived from analytical fits to the antenna impedance curves. These estimates compare favorably with independent estimates from Langmuir Probes, but at much higher temporal and spatial resolution, providing a capability to resolve small-scale temperature fluctuations. We also present some considerations for the design of impedance probes, including assessment of the effects of resonance damping due to rocket motion, effects of wake and spin modulation, and aspect angle to the magnetic field.

Finite element method modeling to assess Laplacian estimates via novel variable inter-ring distances concentric ring electrodes.

PubMed

Makeyev, Oleksandr; Besio, Walter G

2016-08-01

Noninvasive concentric ring electrodes are a promising alternative to conventional disc electrodes. Currently, superiority of tripolar concentric ring electrodes over disc electrodes, in particular, in accuracy of Laplacian estimation has been demonstrated in a range of applications. In our recent work we have shown that accuracy of Laplacian estimation can be improved with multipolar concentric ring electrodes using a general approach to estimation of the Laplacian for an (n + 1)-polar electrode with n rings using the (4n + 1)-point method for n ≥ 2. This paper takes the next step toward further improving the Laplacian estimate by proposing novel variable inter-ring distances concentric ring electrodes. Derived using a modified (4n + 1)-point method, linearly increasing and decreasing inter-ring distances tripolar (n = 2) and quadripolar (n = 3) electrode configurations are compared to their constant inter-ring distances counterparts using finite element method modeling. Obtained results suggest that increasing inter-ring distances electrode configurations may decrease the estimation error resulting in more accurate Laplacian estimates compared to respective constant inter-ring distances configurations. For currently used tripolar electrode configuration the estimation error may be decreased more than two-fold while for the quadripolar configuration more than six-fold decrease is expected.

Observations of Ocean Primary Productivity Using MODIS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Esaias, Wayne E.; Abbott, Mark R.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Measuring the magnitude and variability of oceanic net primary productivity (NPP) represents a key advancement toward our understanding of the dynamics of marine ecosystems and the role of the ocean in the global carbon cycle. MODIS observations make two new contributions in addition to continuing the bio-optical time series begun with Orbview-2's SeaWiFS sensor. First, MODIS provides weekly estimates of global ocean net primary productivity on weekly and annual time periods, and annual empirical estimates of carbon export production. Second, MODIS provides additional insight into the spatial and temporal variations in photosynthetic efficiency through the direct measurements of solar-stimulated chlorophyll fluorescence. The two different weekly productivity indexes (first developed by Behrenfeld & Falkowski and by Yoder, Ryan and Howard) are used to derive daily productivity as a function of chlorophyll biomass, incident daily surface irradiance, temperature, euphotic depth, and mixed layer depth. Comparisons between these two estimates using both SeaWiFS and MODIS data show significant model differences in spatial distribution after allowance for the different integration depths. Both estimates are strongly dependence on the accuracy of the chlorophyll determination. In addition, an empirical approach is taken on annual scales to estimate global NPP and export production. Estimates of solar stimulated fluorescence efficiency from chlorophyll have been shown to be inversely related to photosynthetic efficiency by Abbott and co-workers. MODIS provides the first global estimates of oceanic chlorophyll fluorescence, providing an important proof of concept. MODIS observations are revealing spatial patterns of fluorescence efficiency which show expected variations with phytoplankton photo-physiological parameters as measured during in-situ surveys. This has opened the way for research into utilizing this information to improve our understanding of oceanic NPP variability. Deriving the ocean bio-optical properties places severe demands on instrument performance (especially band to band precision) and atmospheric correction. Improvements in MODIS instrument characterization and calibration over the first 16 mission months have greatly improved the accuracy of the chlorophyll input fields and FLH, and therefore the estimates of NPP and fluorescence efficiency. Annual estimates now show the oceanic NPP accounts for 40-50% of the global total NPP, with significant interannual variations related to large scale ocean processes. Spatial variations in ocean NPP, and exported production, have significant effects on exchange of CO2 between the ocean and atmosphere. Further work is underway to improve both the primary productivity model functions, and to refine our understanding of the relationships between fluorescence efficiency and NPP estimates. We expect that the MODIS instruments will prove extremely useful in assessing the time dependencies of oceanic carbon uptake and effects of iron enrichment, within the global carbon cycle.

Vegetation Phenology Metrics Derived from Temporally Smoothed and Gap-filled MODIS Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tan, Bin; Morisette, Jeff; Wolfe, Robert; Esaias, Wayne; Gao, Feng; Ederer, Greg; Nightingale, Joanne; Nickeson, Jamie E.; Ma, Pete; Pedely, Jeff

2012-01-01

Smoothed and gap-filled VI provides a good base for estimating vegetation phenology metrics. The TIMESAT software was improved by incorporating the ancillary information from MODIS products. A simple assessment of the association between retrieved greenup dates and ground observations indicates satisfactory result from improved TIMESAT software. One application example shows that mapping Nectar Flow Phenology is tractable on a continental scale using hive weight and satellite vegetation data. The phenology data product is supporting more researches in ecology, climate change fields.

A method for nonlinear exponential regression analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Junkin, B. G.

1971-01-01

A computer-oriented technique is presented for performing a nonlinear exponential regression analysis on decay-type experimental data. The technique involves the least squares procedure wherein the nonlinear problem is linearized by expansion in a Taylor series. A linear curve fitting procedure for determining the initial nominal estimates for the unknown exponential model parameters is included as an integral part of the technique. A correction matrix was derived and then applied to the nominal estimate to produce an improved set of model parameters. The solution cycle is repeated until some predetermined criterion is satisfied.

Estimating the Effects of Students' Social Networks: Does Attending a Norm-Enforcing School Pay Off?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carolan, Brian V.

2010-01-01

In an attempt to forge tighter social relations, small school reformers advocate school designs intended to create smaller, more trusting, and more collaborative settings. These efforts to enhance students' social capital in the form of social closure are ultimately tied to improving academic outcomes. Using data derived from ELS: 2002, this study…

Understanding Ozark Forest Litter Variability Through a Synthesis of Accumulation Rates and Fire Events

Treesearch

Michael C. Stambaugh; Richard P. Guyette; Keith W. Grabner; Jeremy Kolaks

2006-01-01

Measuring success of fuels management is improved by understanding rates of litter accumulation and decay in relation to disturbance events. Despite the broad ecological importance of litter, little is known about the parameters of accumulation and decay rates in Ozark forests. Previously published estimates were used to derive accumulation rates and combined litter...

Satellite irrigation management support with the terrestrial observation and prediction system: A framework for integration of satellite & surface observations to support improvements in agricultural water resource management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In California and other regions vulnerable to water shortages, satellite-derived estimates of key hydrologic parameters can support agricultural producers and water managers in maximizing the benefits of available water supplies. The Satellite Irrigation Management Support (SIMS) project combines N...

Contemporary group estimates adjusted for climatic effects provide a finer definition of the unknown environmental challenges experienced by growing pigs.

PubMed

Guy, S Z Y; Li, L; Thomson, P C; Hermesch, S

2017-12-01

Environmental descriptors derived from mean performances of contemporary groups (CGs) are assumed to capture any known and unknown environmental challenges. The objective of this paper was to obtain a finer definition of the unknown challenges, by adjusting CG estimates for the known climatic effects of monthly maximum air temperature (MaxT), minimum air temperature (MinT) and monthly rainfall (Rain). As the unknown component could include infection challenges, these refined descriptors may help to better model varying responses of sire progeny to environmental infection challenges for the definition of disease resilience. Data were recorded from 1999 to 2013 at a piggery in south-east Queensland, Australia (n = 31,230). Firstly, CG estimates of average daily gain (ADG) and backfat (BF) were adjusted for MaxT, MinT and Rain, which were fitted as splines. In the models used to derive CG estimates for ADG, MaxT and MinT were significant variables. The models that contained these significant climatic variables had CG estimates with a lower variance compared to models without significant climatic variables. Variance component estimates were similar across all models, suggesting that these significant climatic variables accounted for some known environmental variation captured in CG estimates. No climatic variables were significant in the models used to derive the CG estimates for BF. These CG estimates were used to categorize environments. There was no observable sire by environment interaction (Sire×E) for ADG when using the environmental descriptors based on CG estimates on BF. For the environmental descriptors based on CG estimates of ADG, there was significant Sire×E only when MinT was included in the model (p = .01). Therefore, this new definition of the environment, preadjusted by MinT, increased the ability to detect Sire×E. While the unknown challenges captured in refined CG estimates need verification for infection challenges, this may provide a practical approach for the genetic improvement of disease resilience. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Incorporating GOES Satellite Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) Retrievals to Improve Biogenic Emission Estimates in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Rui; White, Andrew T.; Pour Biazar, Arastoo; McNider, Richard T.; Cohan, Daniel S.

2018-01-01

This study examines the influence of insolation and cloud retrieval products from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) system on biogenic emission estimates and ozone simulations in Texas. Compared to surface pyranometer observations, satellite-retrieved insolation and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) values tend to systematically correct the overestimation of downwelling shortwave radiation in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The correlation coefficient increases from 0.93 to 0.97, and the normalized mean error decreases from 36% to 21%. The isoprene and monoterpene emissions estimated by the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature are on average 20% and 5% less, respectively, when PAR from the direct satellite retrieval is used rather than the control WRF run. The reduction in biogenic emission rates using satellite PAR reduced the predicted maximum daily 8 h ozone concentration by up to 5.3 ppbV over the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) region on some days. However, episode average ozone response is less sensitive, with a 0.6 ppbV decrease near DFW and 0.3 ppbV increase over East Texas. The systematic overestimation of isoprene concentrations in a WRF control case is partially corrected by using satellite PAR, which observes more clouds than are simulated by WRF. Further, assimilation of GOES-derived cloud fields in WRF improved CAMx model performance for ground-level ozone over Texas. Additionally, it was found that using satellite PAR improved the model's ability to replicate the spatial pattern of satellite-derived formaldehyde columns and aircraft-observed vertical profiles of isoprene.

Analytical study to define a helicopter stability derivative extraction method, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molusis, J. A.

1973-01-01

A method is developed for extracting six degree-of-freedom stability and control derivatives from helicopter flight data. Different combinations of filtering and derivative estimate are investigated and used with a Bayesian approach for derivative identification. The combination of filtering and estimate found to yield the most accurate time response match to flight test data is determined and applied to CH-53A and CH-54B flight data. The method found to be most accurate consists of (1) filtering flight test data with a digital filter, followed by an extended Kalman filter (2) identifying a derivative estimate with a least square estimator, and (3) obtaining derivatives with the Bayesian derivative extraction method.

Biomass Retrieval from L-Band Polarimetric UAVSAR Backscatter and PRISM Stereo Imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Zhiyu; Ni, Wenjian; Sun, Guoqing; Huang, Wenli; Ranson, Kenneth J.; Cook, Bruce D.; Guo, Zhifeng

2017-01-01

The forest above-ground biomass (AGB) and spatial distribution of vegetation elements have profound effects on the productivity and biodiversity of terrestrial ecosystems. In this paper, we evaluated biomass estimation from L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data acquired by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle SAR (UAVSAR) and the improvement of accuracy by adding canopy height information derived from stereo imagery acquired by Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Panchromatic Remote Sensing Instrument for Stereo Mapping (PRISM) on-board the Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS). Various models for prediction of forest biomass from UAVSAR data were investigated at pixel sizes of 1/4 ha (50 m x 50 m) and 1 ha. The variance inflation factor (VIF) was calculated for each of the explanatory variables in multivariable regression models to assess the multi-collinearity between explanatory variables. In addition, the t-and p-values were used to interpret the significance of the coefficients of each explanatory variables. The R(exp. 2), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), bias and Akaike information criterion (AIC), and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) and bootstrapping were used to validate models. At 1/4-ha scale, the R(exp. 2) and RMSE of biomass estimation from a model using a single track of polarimetric UAVSAR data were 0.59 and 52.08 Mg/ha. With canopy height from PRISM as additional independent variable, R(exp. 2) increased to 0.76 and RMSE decreased to 39.74 Mg/ha (28.24%). At 1-ha scale, the RMSE of biomass estimation based on UAVSAR data of a single track was 39.42 Mg/ha with a R(exp. 2) of 0.77. With the canopy height from PRISM, R(exp. 2) increased to 0.86 and RMSE decreased to 29.47 Mg/ha (20.18%). The models using UAVSAR data alone underestimated biomass at levels above approximately 150 Mg/ha showing the saturation phenomenon. Adding canopy height from PRISM stereo imagery significantly improved the biomass estimation and elevated the saturation level in estimating biomass. Combined use of UAVSAR data acquired from opposite directions (odd and even tracks) slightly improved the biomass estimation.Combined use of UAVSAR data acquired from opposite directions (odd and even tracks) slightly improved the biomass estimation at 1/4-ha scale, R(exp. 2) increased from 0.59 to 0.66 and RMSE reduced from 52.08 to 48.57 Mg/ha. Averaging multiple acquisitions of UAVSAR data from the same look azimuth direction did not improve biomass estimation. A biomass map derived from NASA's LVIS (Laser Vegetation Imaging System) wave-form data was used as a reference for evaluation of the biomass maps from these models. The study has also shown that the errors decreased when deciduous, evergreen, and mixed forests were modeled separately but the improvement was not significant

Evaluation of precipitation estimates over CONUS derived from satellite, radar, and rain gauge data sets at daily to annual scales (2002-2012)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prat, O. P.; Nelson, B. R.

2015-04-01

We use a suite of quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) derived from satellite, radar, and surface observations to derive precipitation characteristics over the contiguous United States (CONUS) for the period 2002-2012. This comparison effort includes satellite multi-sensor data sets (bias-adjusted TMPA 3B42, near-real-time 3B42RT), radar estimates (NCEP Stage IV), and rain gauge observations. Remotely sensed precipitation data sets are compared with surface observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily (GHCN-D) and from the PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model). The comparisons are performed at the annual, seasonal, and daily scales over the River Forecast Centers (RFCs) for CONUS. Annual average rain rates present a satisfying agreement with GHCN-D for all products over CONUS (±6%). However, differences at the RFC are more important in particular for near-real-time 3B42RT precipitation estimates (-33 to +49%). At annual and seasonal scales, the bias-adjusted 3B42 presented important improvement when compared to its near-real-time counterpart 3B42RT. However, large biases remained for 3B42 over the western USA for higher average accumulation (≥ 5 mm day-1) with respect to GHCN-D surface observations. At the daily scale, 3B42RT performed poorly in capturing extreme daily precipitation (> 4 in. day-1) over the Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, the conditional analysis and a contingency analysis conducted illustrated the challenge in retrieving extreme precipitation from remote sensing estimates.

Improving Constraints on Climate System Properties withAdditional Data and New Statistical and Sampling Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forest, C. E.; Libardoni, A. G.; Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.

2017-12-01

We use the updated MIT Earth System Model (MESM) to derive the joint probability distribution function for Equilibrium Climate sensitivity (S), an effective heat diffusivity (Kv), and the net aerosol forcing (Faer). Using a new 1800-member ensemble of MESM runs, we derive PDFs by comparing model outputs against historical observations of surface temperature and global mean ocean heat content. We focus on how changes in (i) the MESM model, (ii) recent surface temperature and ocean heat content observations, and (iii) estimates of internal climate variability will all contribute to uncertainties. We show that estimates of S increase and Faer is less negative. These shifts result partly from new model forcing inputs but also from including recent temperature records that lead to higher values of S and Kv. We show that the parameter distributions are sensitive to the internal variability in the climate system. When considering these factors, we derive our best estimate for the joint probability distribution for the climate system properties. We estimate the 90-percent confidence intervals for climate sensitivity as 2.7-5.4 oC with a mode of 3.5 oC, for Kv as 1.9-23.0 cm2 s-1 with a mode of 4.41 cm2 s-1, and for Faer as -0.4 - -0.04 Wm-2 with a mode of -0.25 Wm-2. Lastly, we estimate TCR to be between 1.4 and 2.1 oC with a mode of 1.8 oC.

The Effects of Population Size Histories on Estimates of Selection Coefficients from Time-Series Genetic Data.

PubMed

Jewett, Ethan M; Steinrücken, Matthias; Song, Yun S

2016-11-01

Many approaches have been developed for inferring selection coefficients from time series data while accounting for genetic drift. These approaches have been motivated by the intuition that properly accounting for the population size history can significantly improve estimates of selective strengths. However, the improvement in inference accuracy that can be attained by modeling drift has not been characterized. Here, by comparing maximum likelihood estimates of selection coefficients that account for the true population size history with estimates that ignore drift by assuming allele frequencies evolve deterministically in a population of infinite size, we address the following questions: how much can modeling the population size history improve estimates of selection coefficients? How much can mis-inferred population sizes hurt inferences of selection coefficients? We conduct our analysis under the discrete Wright-Fisher model by deriving the exact probability of an allele frequency trajectory in a population of time-varying size and we replicate our results under the diffusion model. For both models, we find that ignoring drift leads to estimates of selection coefficients that are nearly as accurate as estimates that account for the true population history, even when population sizes are small and drift is high. This result is of interest because inference methods that ignore drift are widely used in evolutionary studies and can be many orders of magnitude faster than methods that account for population sizes. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Impact of the assimilation of satellite soil moisture and LST on the hydrological cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laiolo, Paola; Gabellani, Simone; Delogu, Fabio; Silvestro, Francesco; Rudari, Roberto; Campo, Lorenzo; Boni, Giorgio

2014-05-01

The reliable estimation of hydrological variables (e.g. soil moisture, evapotranspiration, surface temperature) in space and time is of fundamental importance in operational hydrology to improve the forecast of the rainfall-runoff response of catchments and, consequently, flood predictions. Nowadays remote sensing can offer a chance to provide good space-time estimates of several hydrological variables and then improve hydrological model performances especially in environments with scarce ground based data. The aim of this work is to investigate the impacts on the performances of a distributed hydrological model (Continuum) of the assimilation of satellite-derived soil moisture products and Land Surface (LST). In this work three different soil moisture (SM) products, derived by ASCAT sensor, are used. These data are provided by the EUMETSAT's H-SAF (Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management) program. The considered soil moisture products are: large scale surface soil moisture (SM OBS 1 - H07), small scale surface soil moisture (SM OBS 2 - H08) and profile index in the roots region (SM DAS 2 - H14). These data are compared with soil moisture estimated by Continuum model on the Orba catchment (800 km2), in the northern part of Italy, for the period July 2012-June 2013. Different assimilation experiments have been performed. The first experiment consists in the assimilation of the SM products by using a simple Nudging technique; the second one is the assimilation of only LST data, derived from MSG satellite, and the third is the assimilation of both SM products and LST. The benefits on the model predictions of discharge, LST and soil moisture dynamics were tested.

Modeling Aboveground Biomass in Hulunber Grassland Ecosystem by Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Discrete Lidar

PubMed Central

Wang, Dongliang; Xin, Xiaoping; Shao, Quanqin; Brolly, Matthew; Zhu, Zhiliang; Chen, Jin

2017-01-01

Accurate canopy structure datasets, including canopy height and fractional cover, are required to monitor aboveground biomass as well as to provide validation data for satellite remote sensing products. In this study, the ability of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) discrete light detection and ranging (lidar) was investigated for modeling both the canopy height and fractional cover in Hulunber grassland ecosystem. The extracted mean canopy height, maximum canopy height, and fractional cover were used to estimate the aboveground biomass. The influences of flight height on lidar estimates were also analyzed. The main findings are: (1) the lidar-derived mean canopy height is the most reasonable predictor of aboveground biomass (R2 = 0.340, root-mean-square error (RMSE) = 81.89 g·m−2, and relative error of 14.1%). The improvement of multiple regressions to the R2 and RMSE values is unobvious when adding fractional cover in the regression since the correlation between mean canopy height and fractional cover is high; (2) Flight height has a pronounced effect on the derived fractional cover and details of the lidar data, but the effect is insignificant on the derived canopy height when the flight height is within the range (<100 m). These findings are helpful for modeling stable regressions to estimate grassland biomass using lidar returns. PMID:28106819

Modeling Aboveground Biomass in Hulunber Grassland Ecosystem by Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Discrete Lidar.

PubMed

Wang, Dongliang; Xin, Xiaoping; Shao, Quanqin; Brolly, Matthew; Zhu, Zhiliang; Chen, Jin

2017-01-19

Accurate canopy structure datasets, including canopy height and fractional cover, are required to monitor aboveground biomass as well as to provide validation data for satellite remote sensing products. In this study, the ability of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) discrete light detection and ranging (lidar) was investigated for modeling both the canopy height and fractional cover in Hulunber grassland ecosystem. The extracted mean canopy height, maximum canopy height, and fractional cover were used to estimate the aboveground biomass. The influences of flight height on lidar estimates were also analyzed. The main findings are: (1) the lidar-derived mean canopy height is the most reasonable predictor of aboveground biomass ( R ² = 0.340, root-mean-square error (RMSE) = 81.89 g·m -2 , and relative error of 14.1%). The improvement of multiple regressions to the R ² and RMSE values is unobvious when adding fractional cover in the regression since the correlation between mean canopy height and fractional cover is high; (2) Flight height has a pronounced effect on the derived fractional cover and details of the lidar data, but the effect is insignificant on the derived canopy height when the flight height is within the range (<100 m). These findings are helpful for modeling stable regressions to estimate grassland biomass using lidar returns.

Reduced density gradient as a novel approach for estimating QSAR descriptors, and its application to 1, 4-dihydropyridine derivatives with potential antihypertensive effects.

PubMed

Jardínez, Christiaan; Vela, Alberto; Cruz-Borbolla, Julián; Alvarez-Mendez, Rodrigo J; Alvarado-Rodríguez, José G

2016-12-01

The relationship between the chemical structure and biological activity (log IC 50 ) of 40 derivatives of 1,4-dihydropyridines (DHPs) was studied using density functional theory (DFT) and multiple linear regression analysis methods. With the aim of improving the quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model, the reduced density gradient s( r) of the optimized equilibrium geometries was used as a descriptor to include weak non-covalent interactions. The QSAR model highlights the correlation between the log IC 50 with highest molecular orbital energy (E HOMO ), molecular volume (V), partition coefficient (log P), non-covalent interactions NCI(H4-G) and the dual descriptor [Δf(r)]. The model yielded values of R 2 =79.57 and Q 2 =69.67 that were validated with the next four internal analytical validations DK=0.076, DQ=-0.006, R P =0.056, and R N =0.000, and the external validation Q 2 boot =64.26. The QSAR model found can be used to estimate biological activity with high reliability in new compounds based on a DHP series. Graphical abstract The good correlation between the log IC 50 with the NCI (H4-G) estimated by the reduced density gradient approach of the DHP derivatives.

Stochastic error model corrections to improve the performance of bottom-up precipitation products for hydrologic applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maggioni, V.; Massari, C.; Ciabatta, L.; Brocca, L.

2016-12-01

Accurate quantitative precipitation estimation is of great importance for water resources management, agricultural planning, and forecasting and monitoring of natural hazards such as flash floods and landslides. In situ observations are limited around the Earth, especially in remote areas (e.g., complex terrain, dense vegetation), but currently available satellite precipitation products are able to provide global precipitation estimates with an accuracy that depends upon many factors (e.g., type of storms, temporal sampling, season, etc.). The recent SM2RAIN approach proposes to estimate rainfall by using satellite soil moisture observations. As opposed to traditional satellite precipitation methods, which sense cloud properties to retrieve instantaneous estimates, this new bottom-up approach makes use of two consecutive soil moisture measurements for obtaining an estimate of the fallen precipitation within the interval between two satellite overpasses. As a result, the nature of the measurement is different and complementary to the one of classical precipitation products and could provide a different valid perspective to substitute or improve current rainfall estimates. However, uncertainties in the SM2RAIN product are still not well known and could represent a limitation in utilizing this dataset for hydrological applications. Therefore, quantifying the uncertainty associated with SM2RAIN is necessary for enabling its use. The study is conducted over the Italian territory for a 5-yr period (2010-2014). A number of satellite precipitation error properties, typically used in error modeling, are investigated and include probability of detection, false alarm rates, missed events, spatial correlation of the error, and hit biases. After this preliminary uncertainty analysis, the potential of applying the stochastic rainfall error model SREM2D to correct SM2RAIN and to improve its performance in hydrologic applications is investigated. The use of SREM2D for characterizing the error in precipitation by SM2RAIN would be highly useful for the merging and the integration steps in its algorithm, i.e., the merging of multiple soil moisture derived products (e.g., SMAP, SMOS, ASCAT) and the integration of soil moisture derived and state of the art satellite precipitation products (e.g., GPM IMERG).

Estimating equations for glomerular filtration rate in the era of creatinine standardization: a systematic review.

PubMed

Earley, Amy; Miskulin, Dana; Lamb, Edmund J; Levey, Andrew S; Uhlig, Katrin

2012-06-05

Clinical laboratories are increasingly reporting estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) by using serum creatinine assays traceable to a standard reference material. To review the performance of GFR estimating equations to inform the selection of a single equation by laboratories and the interpretation of estimated GFR by clinicians. A systematic search of MEDLINE, without language restriction, between 1999 and 21 October 2011. Cross-sectional studies in adults that compared the performance of 2 or more creatinine-based GFR estimating equations with a reference GFR measurement. Eligible equations were derived or reexpressed and validated by using creatinine measurements traceable to the standard reference material. Reviewers extracted data on study population characteristics, measured GFR, creatinine assay, and equation performance. Eligible studies compared the MDRD (Modification of Diet in Renal Disease) Study and CKD-EPI (Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration) equations or modifications thereof. In 12 studies in North America, Europe, and Australia, the CKD-EPI equation performed better at higher GFRs (approximately >60 mL/min per 1.73 m(2)) and the MDRD Study equation performed better at lower GFRs. In 5 of 8 studies in Asia and Africa, the equations were modified to improve their performance by adding a coefficient derived in the local population or removing a coefficient. Methods of GFR measurement and study populations were heterogeneous. Neither the CKD-EPI nor the MDRD Study equation is optimal for all populations and GFR ranges. Using a single equation for reporting requires a tradeoff to optimize performance at either higher or lower GFR ranges. A general practice and public health perspective favors the CKD-EPI equation. Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes.

Study of continuous blood pressure estimation based on pulse transit time, heart rate and photoplethysmography-derived hemodynamic covariates.

PubMed

Feng, Jingjie; Huang, Zhongyi; Zhou, Congcong; Ye, Xuesong

2018-06-01

It is widely recognized that pulse transit time (PTT) can track blood pressure (BP) over short periods of time, and hemodynamic covariates such as heart rate, stiffness index may also contribute to BP monitoring. In this paper, we derived a proportional relationship between BP and PPT -2 and proposed an improved method adopting hemodynamic covariates in addition to PTT for continuous BP estimation. We divided 28 subjects from the Multi-parameter Intelligent Monitoring for Intensive Care database into two groups (with/without cardiovascular diseases) and utilized a machine learning strategy based on regularized linear regression (RLR) to construct BP models with different covariates for corresponding groups. RLR was performed for individuals as the initial calibration, while recursive least square algorithm was employed for the re-calibration. The results showed that errors of BP estimation by our method stayed within the Association of Advancement of Medical Instrumentation limits (- 0.98 ± 6.00 mmHg @ SBP, 0.02 ± 4.98 mmHg @ DBP) when the calibration interval extended to 1200-beat cardiac cycles. In comparison with other two representative studies, Chen's method kept accurate (0.32 ± 6.74 mmHg @ SBP, 0.94 ± 5.37 mmHg @ DBP) using a 400-beat calibration interval, while Poon's failed (- 1.97 ± 10.59 mmHg @ SBP, 0.70 ± 4.10 mmHg @ DBP) when using a 200-beat calibration interval. With additional hemodynamic covariates utilized, our method improved the accuracy of PTT-based BP estimation, decreased the calibration frequency and had the potential for better continuous BP estimation.

Assessment of SMOS Soil Moisture Retrieval Parameters Using Tau-Omega Algorithms for Soil Moisture Deficit Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Srivastava, Prashant K.; Han, Dawei; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel A.; O'Neill, Peggy; Islam, Tanvir; Gupta, Manika

2014-01-01

Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) is the latest mission which provides flow of coarse resolution soil moisture data for land applications. However, the efficient retrieval of soil moisture for hydrological applications depends on optimally choosing the soil and vegetation parameters. The first stage of this work involves the evaluation of SMOS Level 2 products and then several approaches for soil moisture retrieval from SMOS brightness temperature are performed to estimate Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD). The most widely applied algorithm i.e. Single channel algorithm (SCA), based on tau-omega is used in this study for the soil moisture retrieval. In tau-omega, the soil moisture is retrieved using the Horizontal (H) polarisation following Hallikainen dielectric model, roughness parameters, Fresnel's equation and estimated Vegetation Optical Depth (tau). The roughness parameters are empirically calibrated using the numerical optimization techniques. Further to explore the improvement in retrieval models, modifications have been incorporated in the algorithms with respect to the sources of the parameters, which include effective temperatures derived from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-NOAH Land Surface Model and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) while the s is derived from MODIS Leaf Area Index (LAI). All the evaluations are performed against SMD, which is estimated using the Probability Distributed Model following a careful calibration and validation integrated with sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The performance obtained after all those changes indicate that SCA-H using WRF-NOAH LSM downscaled ECMWF LST produces an improved performance for SMD estimation at a catchment scale.

Improving Assimilated Global Climate Data Using TRMM and SSM/I Rainfall and Moisture Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hou, Arthur Y.; Zhang, Sara Q.; daSilva, Arlindo M.; Olson, William S.

1999-01-01

Current global analyses contain significant errors in primary hydrological fields such as precipitation, evaporation, and related cloud and moisture in the tropics. Work has been underway at NASA's Data Assimilation Office to explore the use of TRMM and SSM/I-derived rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) data in global data assimilation to directly constrain these hydrological parameters. We found that assimilating these data types improves not only the precipitation and moisture estimates but also key climate parameters directly linked to convection such as the outgoing longwave radiation, clouds, and the large-scale circulation in the tropics. We will present results showing that assimilating TRMM and SSM/I 6-hour averaged rain rates and TPW estimates significantly reduces the state-dependent systematic errors in assimilated products. Specifically, rainfall assimilation improves cloud and latent heating distributions, which, in turn, improves the cloudy-sky radiation and the large-scale circulation, while TPW assimilation reduces moisture biases to improve radiation in clear-sky regions. Rainfall and TPW assimilation also improves tropical forecasts beyond 1 day.

Bone volume fraction and structural parameters for estimation of mechanical stiffness and failure load of human cancellous bone samples; in-vitro comparison of ultrasound transit time spectroscopy and X-ray μCT.

PubMed

Alomari, Ali Hamed; Wille, Marie-Luise; Langton, Christian M

2018-02-01

Conventional mechanical testing is the 'gold standard' for assessing the stiffness (N mm -1 ) and strength (MPa) of bone, although it is not applicable in-vivo since it is inherently invasive and destructive. The mechanical integrity of a bone is determined by its quantity and quality; being related primarily to bone density and structure respectively. Several non-destructive, non-invasive, in-vivo techniques have been developed and clinically implemented to estimate bone density, both areal (dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)) and volumetric (quantitative computed tomography (QCT)). Quantitative ultrasound (QUS) parameters of velocity and attenuation are dependent upon both bone quantity and bone quality, although it has not been possible to date to transpose one particular QUS parameter into separate estimates of quantity and quality. It has recently been shown that ultrasound transit time spectroscopy (UTTS) may provide an accurate estimate of bone density and hence quantity. We hypothesised that UTTS also has the potential to provide an estimate of bone structure and hence quality. In this in-vitro study, 16 human femoral bone samples were tested utilising three techniques; UTTS, micro computed tomography (μCT), and mechanical testing. UTTS was utilised to estimate bone volume fraction (BV/TV) and two novel structural parameters, inter-quartile range of the derived transit time (UTTS-IQR) and the transit time of maximum proportion of sonic-rays (TTMP). μCT was utilised to derive BV/TV along with several bone structure parameters. A destructive mechanical test was utilised to measure the stiffness and strength (failure load) of the bone samples. BV/TV was calculated from the derived transit time spectrum (TTS); the correlation coefficient (R 2 ) with μCT-BV/TV was 0.885. For predicting mechanical stiffness and strength, BV/TV derived by both μCT and UTTS provided the strongest correlation with mechanical stiffness (R 2 =0.567 and 0.618 respectively) and mechanical strength (R 2 =0.747 and 0.736 respectively). When respective structural parameters were incorporated to BV/TV, multiple regression analysis indicated that none of the μCT histomorphometric parameters could improve the prediction of mechanical stiffness and strength, while for UTTS, adding TTMP to BV/TV increased the prediction of mechanical stiffness to R 2 =0.711 and strength to R 2 =0.827. It is therefore envisaged that UTTS may have the ability to estimate BV/TV along with providing an improved prediction of osteoporotic fracture risk, within routine clinical practice in the future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimated SLR station position and network frame sensitivity to time-varying gravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zelensky, Nikita P.; Lemoine, Frank G.; Chinn, Douglas S.; Melachroinos, Stavros; Beckley, Brian D.; Beall, Jennifer Wiser; Bordyugov, Oleg

2014-06-01

This paper evaluates the sensitivity of ITRF2008-based satellite laser ranging (SLR) station positions estimated weekly using LAGEOS-1/2 data from 1993 to 2012 to non-tidal time-varying gravity (TVG). Two primary methods for modeling TVG from degree-2 are employed. The operational approach applies an annual GRACE-derived field, and IERS recommended linear rates for five coefficients. The experimental approach uses low-order/degree coefficients estimated weekly from SLR and DORIS processing of up to 11 satellites (tvg4x4). This study shows that the LAGEOS-1/2 orbits and the weekly station solutions are sensitive to more detailed modeling of TVG than prescribed in the current IERS standards. Over 1993-2012 tvg4x4 improves SLR residuals by 18 % and shows 10 % RMS improvement in station stability. Tests suggest that the improved stability of the tvg4x4 POD solution frame may help clarify geophysical signals present in the estimated station position time series. The signals include linear and seasonal station motion, and motion of the TRF origin, particularly in Z. The effect on both POD and the station solutions becomes increasingly evident starting in 2006. Over 2008-2012, the tvg4x4 series improves SLR residuals by 29 %. Use of the GRGS RL02 series shows similar improvement in POD. Using tvg4x4, secular changes in the TRF origin Z component double over the last decade and although not conclusive, it is consistent with increased geocenter rate expected due to continental ice melt. The test results indicate that accurate modeling of TVG is necessary for improvement of station position estimation using SLR data.

Retrieving aboveground biomass of wetland Phragmites australis (common reed) using a combination of airborne discrete-return LiDAR and hyperspectral data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Shezhou; Wang, Cheng; Xi, Xiaohuan; Pan, Feifei; Qian, Mingjie; Peng, Dailiang; Nie, Sheng; Qin, Haiming; Lin, Yi

2017-06-01

Wetland biomass is essential for monitoring the stability and productivity of wetland ecosystems. Conventional field methods to measure or estimate wetland biomass are accurate and reliable, but expensive, time consuming and labor intensive. This research explored the potential for estimating wetland reed biomass using a combination of airborne discrete-return Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and hyperspectral data. To derive the optimal predictor variables of reed biomass, a range of LiDAR and hyperspectral metrics at different spatial scales were regressed against the field-observed biomasses. The results showed that the LiDAR-derived H_p99 (99th percentile of the LiDAR height) and hyperspectral-calculated modified soil-adjusted vegetation index (MSAVI) were the best metrics for estimating reed biomass using the single regression model. Although the LiDAR data yielded a higher estimation accuracy compared to the hyperspectral data, the combination of LiDAR and hyperspectral data produced a more accurate prediction model for reed biomass (R2 = 0.648, RMSE = 167.546 g/m2, RMSEr = 20.71%) than LiDAR data alone. Thus, combining LiDAR data with hyperspectral data has a great potential for improving the accuracy of aboveground biomass estimation.

Assimilating a decade of hydrometeorological ship measurements across the North American Great Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fries, K. J.; Kerkez, B.

2015-12-01

We use a decade of measurements made by the Volunteer Observing Ships (VOS) program on the North American Great Lakes to derive spatial estimates of over-lake air temperature, sea surface temperature, dewpoint, and wind speed. This Lagrangian data set, which annually comprises over 200,000 point observations from over 80,000 ship reports across a 244,000 square kilometer study area, is assimilated using a Gaussian Process machine learning algorithm. This algorithm classifies a model for each hydrometeorological variable using a combination of latitudes, longitudes, seasons of the year, as well as predictions made by the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) and Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System (GLCFS) operational models. We show that our data-driven method significantly improves the spatial and temporal estimation of overlake hydrometeorological variables, while simultaneously providing uncertainty estimates that can be used to improve historical and future predictions on dense spatial and temporal scales. This method stands to improve the prediction of water levels on the Great Lakes, which comprise over 90% of America's surface fresh water, and impact the lives of millions of people living in the basin.

Global Radius of Curvature Estimation and Control for the Hobby-Eberly Telescope

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rakoczy, John; Hall, Drew; Howard, Ricky; Ly, William; Weir, John; Montgomery, Edward; Brantley, Lott W. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A system, which estimates the global radius of curvature (GroC) and corrects for changes in GroC on a segmented primary mirror has been developed for and verified on McDonald Observatory's Hobby Eberly Telescope (HET). The GroC estimation and control system utilizes HET's primary mirror control (PMC) system and the Segment Alignment Maintenance System (SAMS), an inductive edge sensor system. A special set of boundary conditions is applied to the derivation of the optimal edge match control. The special boundary conditions allow the further derivation of an observer, which enables estimation and control of the Groc mode to within HET's specification. The magnitude of the GroC mode can then be controlled despite the inability of the SAMS edge sensor system, by itself, to observe or control the GroC mode. The observer can be extended to any segmented mirror telescope. It will be shown that the observer improves with accuracy as the number of segments increases. This paper presents the mathematical theory of the observer. Simulation results will demonstrate the inherent accuracy and robustness of the system. Performance verification data from the HET will be presented.

Hierarchical Probabilistic Inference of the Color-Magnitude Diagram and Shrinkage of Stellar Distance Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leistedt, Boris; Hogg, David W.

2017-12-01

We present a hierarchical probabilistic model for improving geometric stellar distance estimates using color-magnitude information. This is achieved with a data-driven model of the color-magnitude diagram, not relying on stellar models but instead on the relative abundances of stars in color-magnitude cells, which are inferred from very noisy magnitudes and parallaxes. While the resulting noise-deconvolved color-magnitude diagram can be useful for a range of applications, we focus on deriving improved stellar distance estimates relying on both parallax and photometric information. We demonstrate the efficiency of this approach on the 1.4 million stars of the Gaia TGAS sample that also have AAVSO Photometric All Sky Survey magnitudes. Our hierarchical model has 4 million parameters in total, most of which are marginalized out numerically or analytically. We find that distance estimates are significantly improved for the noisiest parallaxes and densest regions of the color-magnitude diagram. In particular, the average distance signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) and uncertainty improve by 19% and 36%, respectively, with 8% of the objects improving in S/N by a factor greater than 2. This computationally efficient approach fully accounts for both parallax and photometric noise and is a first step toward a full hierarchical probabilistic model of the Gaia data.

Analytic assessment of Laplacian estimates via novel variable interring distances concentric ring electrodes.

PubMed

Makeyev, Oleksandr; Besio, Walter G

2016-08-01

Noninvasive concentric ring electrodes are a promising alternative to conventional disc electrodes. Currently, superiority of tripolar concentric ring electrodes over disc electrodes, in particular, in accuracy of Laplacian estimation has been demonstrated in a range of applications. In our recent work we have shown that accuracy of Laplacian estimation can be improved with multipolar concentric ring electrodes using a general approach to estimation of the Laplacian for an (n + 1)-polar electrode with n rings using the (4n + 1)-point method for n ≥ 2. This paper takes the next step toward further improving the Laplacian estimate by proposing novel variable inter-ring distances concentric ring electrodes. Derived using a modified (4n + 1)-point method, linearly increasing inter-ring distances tripolar (n = 2) and quadripolar (n = 3) electrode configurations are analytically compared to their constant inter-ring distances counterparts using coefficients of the Taylor series truncation terms. Obtained results suggest that increasing inter-ring distances electrode configurations may decrease the truncation error of the Laplacian estimation resulting in more accurate Laplacian estimates compared to respective constant inter-ring distances configurations. For currently used tripolar electrode configuration the truncation error may be decreased more than two-fold while for the quadripolar more than seven-fold decrease is expected.

Optimal reference polarization states for the calibration of general Stokes polarimeters in the presence of noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mu, Tingkui; Bao, Donghao; Zhang, Chunmin; Chen, Zeyu; Song, Jionghui

2018-07-01

During the calibration of the system matrix of a Stokes polarimeter using reference polarization states (RPSs) and pseudo-inversion estimation method, the measurement intensities are usually noised by the signal-independent additive Gaussian noise or signal-dependent Poisson shot noise, the precision of the estimated system matrix is degraded. In this paper, we present a paradigm for selecting RPSs to improve the precision of the estimated system matrix in the presence of both types of noise. The analytical solution of the precision of the system matrix estimated with the RPSs are derived. Experimental measurements from a general Stokes polarimeter show that accurate system matrix is estimated with the optimal RPSs, which are generated using two rotating quarter-wave plates. The advantage of using optimal RPSs is a reduction in measurement time with high calibration precision.

Accurate Mars Express orbits to improve the determination of the mass and ephemeris of the Martian moons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenblatt, P.; Lainey, V.; Le Maistre, S.; Marty, J. C.; Dehant, V.; Pätzold, M.; Van Hoolst, T.; Häusler, B.

2008-05-01

The determination of the ephemeris of the Martian moons has benefited from observations of their plane-of-sky positions derived from images taken by cameras onboard spacecraft orbiting Mars. Images obtained by the Super Resolution Camera (SRC) onboard Mars Express (MEX) have been used to derive moon positions relative to Mars on the basis of a fit of a complete dynamical model of their motion around Mars. Since, these positions are computed from the relative position of the spacecraft when the images are taken, those positions need to be known as accurately as possible. An accurate MEX orbit is obtained by fitting two years of tracking data of the Mars Express Radio Science (MaRS) experiment onboard MEX. The average accuracy of the orbits has been estimated to be around 20-25 m. From these orbits, we have re-derived the positions of Phobos and Deimos at the epoch of the SRC observations and compared them with the positions derived by using the MEX orbits provided by the ESOC navigation team. After fit of the orbital model of Phobos and Deimos, the gain in precision in the Phobos position is roughly 30 m, corresponding to the estimated gain of accuracy of the MEX orbits. A new solution of the GM of the Martian moons has also been obtained from the accurate MEX orbits, which is consistent with previous solutions and, for Phobos, is more precise than the solution from the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Odyssey (ODY) tracking data. It will be further improved with data from MEX-Phobos closer encounters (at a distance less than 300 km). This study also demonstrates the advantage of combining observations of the moon positions from a spacecraft and from the Earth to assess the real accuracy of the spacecraft orbit. In turn, the natural satellite ephemerides can be improved and participate to a better knowledge of the origin and evolution of the Martian moons.

Characterization of the LANDSAT sensors' spatial responses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Markham, B. L.

1984-01-01

The characteristics of the thematic mapper (TM) and multispectral scanner (MSS) sensors on LANDSATs 4 and 5 affecting their spatial responses are described, and functions defining the response of the system to an arbitrary input spatial pattern are derived, i.e., transfer functions (TF) and line spread functions (LSF). These design LSF's and TF's were modified based on prelaunch component and system measurements to provide improved estimates. Prelaunch estimates of LSF/FT's are compared to in-orbit estimates. For the MSS instruments, only limited prelaunch scan direction square-wave response (SWR) data were available. Design estimates were modified by convolving in Gaussian blur till the derived LSF/TF's produced SWR's comparable to the measurements. The two MSS instruments were comparable at their temperatures of best focus; separate calculations were performed for bands 1 and 3, band 2 and band 4. The pre-sample nadir effective instantaneous field's of view (EIFOV's) based on the .5 modulation transfer function (MTF) criteria vary from 70 to 75 meters in the track direction and 79 to 82 meters in the scan direction. For the TM instruments more extensive prelaunch measurements were available. Bands 1 to 4, 5 and 7, and 6 were handled separately as were the two instruments. Derived MTF's indicate nadir pre-sample EIFOV's of 32 to 33 meter track (bands 1 to 5, 7) and 36 meter scan (bands 1 to 5, 7) and 1245 meter track (band 6) and 141 meter scan (band 6) for both TM's.

Computational system identification of continuous-time nonlinear systems using approximate Bayesian computation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnanathan, Kirubhakaran; Anderson, Sean R.; Billings, Stephen A.; Kadirkamanathan, Visakan

2016-11-01

In this paper, we derive a system identification framework for continuous-time nonlinear systems, for the first time using a simulation-focused computational Bayesian approach. Simulation approaches to nonlinear system identification have been shown to outperform regression methods under certain conditions, such as non-persistently exciting inputs and fast-sampling. We use the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithm to perform simulation-based inference of model parameters. The framework has the following main advantages: (1) parameter distributions are intrinsically generated, giving the user a clear description of uncertainty, (2) the simulation approach avoids the difficult problem of estimating signal derivatives as is common with other continuous-time methods, and (3) as noted above, the simulation approach improves identification under conditions of non-persistently exciting inputs and fast-sampling. Term selection is performed by judging parameter significance using parameter distributions that are intrinsically generated as part of the ABC procedure. The results from a numerical example demonstrate that the method performs well in noisy scenarios, especially in comparison to competing techniques that rely on signal derivative estimation.

EGSIEM combination service: combination of GRACE monthly K-band solutions on normal equation level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Ulrich; Jean, Yoomin; Arnold, Daniel; Jäggi, Adrian

2017-04-01

The European Gravity Service for Improved Emergency Management (EGSIEM) project offers a scientific combination service, combining for the first time monthly GRACE gravity fields of different analysis centers (ACs) on normal equation (NEQ) level and thus taking all correlations between the gravity field coefficients and pre-eliminated orbit and instrument parameters correctly into account. Optimal weights for the individual NEQs are commonly derived by variance component estimation (VCE), as is the case for the products of the International VLBI Service (IVS) or the DTRF2008 reference frame realisation that are also derived by combination on NEQ-level. But variance factors are based on post-fit residuals and strongly depend on observation sampling and noise modeling, which both are very diverse in case of the individual EGSIEM ACs. These variance factors do not necessarily represent the true error levels of the estimated gravity field parameters that are still governed by analysis noise. We present a combination approach where weights are derived on solution level, thereby taking the analysis noise into account.

Estimation of fatigue strength enhancement for carburized and shot-peened gears

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inoue, Katsumi; Kato, Masana

1994-05-01

An experimental formula has been proposed to estimate the bending fatigue strength of carburized gears from the hardness and the residual stress. The derivation of the formula is briefly reviewed, and the effectiveness of the formula is demonstrated in this article. The comparison with many test results for carburized and shot-peened gears verifies that the formula is effective for the approximate estimation of the fatigue strength. The formula quantitatively shows a way of enhancing fatigue strength, i.e., the increase of hardness and residual stress at the fillet. The strength is enhanced about 300 MPa by an appropriate shot peening, and it can be improved still more by the surface removal by electropolishing.

ThermoData Engine (TDE): software implementation of the dynamic data evaluation concept. 9. Extensible thermodynamic constraints for pure compounds and new model developments.

PubMed

Diky, Vladimir; Chirico, Robert D; Muzny, Chris D; Kazakov, Andrei F; Kroenlein, Kenneth; Magee, Joseph W; Abdulagatov, Ilmutdin; Frenkel, Michael

2013-12-23

ThermoData Engine (TDE) is the first full-scale software implementation of the dynamic data evaluation concept, as reported in this journal. The present article describes the background and implementation for new additions in latest release of TDE. Advances are in the areas of program architecture and quality improvement for automatic property evaluations, particularly for pure compounds. It is shown that selection of appropriate program architecture supports improvement of the quality of the on-demand property evaluations through application of a readily extensible collection of constraints. The basis and implementation for other enhancements to TDE are described briefly. Other enhancements include the following: (1) implementation of model-validity enforcement for specific equations that can provide unphysical results if unconstrained, (2) newly refined group-contribution parameters for estimation of enthalpies of formation for pure compounds containing carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen, (3) implementation of an enhanced group-contribution method (NIST-Modified UNIFAC) in TDE for improved estimation of phase-equilibrium properties for binary mixtures, (4) tools for mutual validation of ideal-gas properties derived through statistical calculations and those derived independently through combination of experimental thermodynamic results, (5) improvements in program reliability and function that stem directly from the recent redesign of the TRC-SOURCE Data Archival System for experimental property values, and (6) implementation of the Peng-Robinson equation of state for binary mixtures, which allows for critical evaluation of mixtures involving supercritical components. Planned future developments are summarized.

Can Early Intervention Improve Maternal Well-Being? Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

Doyle, Orla; Delaney, Liam; O’Farrelly, Christine; Fitzpatrick, Nick; Daly, Michael

2017-01-01

Objective This study estimates the effect of a targeted early childhood intervention program on global and experienced measures of maternal well-being utilizing a randomized controlled trial design. The primary aim of the intervention is to improve children’s school readiness skills by working directly with parents to improve their knowledge of child development and parenting behavior. One potential externality of the program is well-being benefits for parents given its direct focus on improving parental coping, self-efficacy, and problem solving skills, as well as generating an indirect effect on parental well-being by targeting child developmental problems. Methods Participants from a socio-economically disadvantaged community are randomly assigned during pregnancy to an intensive 5-year home visiting parenting program or a control group. We estimate and compare treatment effects on multiple measures of global and experienced well-being using permutation testing to account for small sample size and a stepdown procedure to account for multiple testing. Results The intervention has no impact on global well-being as measured by life satisfaction and parenting stress or experienced negative affect using episodic reports derived from the Day Reconstruction Method (DRM). Treatment effects are observed on measures of experienced positive affect derived from the DRM and a measure of mood yesterday. Conclusion The limited treatment effects suggest that early intervention programs may produce some improvements in experienced positive well-being, but no effects on negative aspects of well-being. Different findings across measures may result as experienced measures of well-being avoid the cognitive biases that impinge upon global assessments. PMID:28095505

Senegalese land surface change analysis and biophysical parameter estimation using NOAA AVHRR spectral data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vukovich, Fred M.; Toll, David L.; Kennard, Ruth L.

1989-01-01

Surface biophysical estimates were derived from analysis of NOAA Advanced Very High Spectral Resolution (AVHRR) spectral data of the Senegalese area of west Africa. The parameters derived were of solar albedo, spectral visible and near-infrared band reflectance, spectral vegetative index, and ground temperature. Wet and dry linked AVHRR scenes from 1981 through 1985 in Senegal were analyzed for a semi-wet southerly site near Tambacounda and a predominantly dry northerly site near Podor. Related problems were studied to convert satellite derived radiance to biophysical estimates of the land surface. Problems studied were associated with sensor miscalibration, atmospheric and aerosol spatial variability, surface anisotropy of reflected radiation, narrow satellite band reflectance to broad solar band conversion, and ground emissivity correction. The middle-infrared reflectance was approximated with a visible AVHRR reflectance for improving solar albedo estimates. In addition, the spectral composition of solar irradiance (direct and diffuse radiation) between major spectral regions (i.e., ultraviolet, visible, near-infrared, and middle-infrared) was found to be insensitive to changes in the clear sky atmospheric optical depth in the narrow band to solar band conversion procedure. Solar albedo derived estimates for both sites were not found to change markedly with significant antecedent precipitation events or correspondingly from increases in green leaf vegetation density. The bright soil/substrate contributed to a high albedo for the dry related scenes, whereas the high internal leaf reflectance in green vegetation canopies in the near-infrared contributed to high solar albedo for the wet related scenes. The relationship between solar albedo and ground temperature was poor, indicating the solar albedo has little control of the ground temperature. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the derived visible reflectance were more sensitive to antecedent rainfall amounts and green vegetation changes than were near-infrared changes. The information in the NDVI related to green leaf density changes primarily was from the visible reflectance. The contribution of the near-infrared reflectance to explaining green vegetation is largely reduced when there is a bright substrate.

Improved measurement of protein synthesis in human subjects using 2H-phenylalanine isotopomers and gas chromatography/mass spectrometry.

PubMed

Preston, Tom; Small, Alexandra C

2010-03-15

Sensitive methods to measure protein synthetic rate in vivo are required to assess changes in protein expression, especially when comparing healthy with infirm subjects. We have previously applied a 'flooding dose' procedure using (2)H(5)-phenylalanine ((2)H(5)-phe) and (2)H(8)-phe isotopomers as tracers, which has proven successful in measuring albumin and fibrinogen synthesis in response to feeding in cancer patients. Using tert-butyldimethylsilyl derivatives, we have observed that (2)H(7)-phe is formed with time in vivo from (2)H(8)-phe, probably during transamination. This increases errors when estimating the fractional synthetic rate (FSR) using the (2)H(8)-phe isotopomer compared with the (2)H(5)-phe isotopomer. We sought to improve this situation by use of an alternative derivative that overcomes this problem whilst also streamlining sample preparation. When using N-ethoxycarbonyltrifluoroethyl (ECTFE) amino acid esters, (2)H(8)-phe is effectively converted into (2)H(7)-phe through fragmentation under electron ionisation (EI), allowing both (2)H(8)-phe and (2)H(7)-phe isotopomers to be measured as a single intense C(7)(2)H(7)(+) fragment at 98 Th. To illustrate the improved situation, the mean RMS residual was calculated for all albumin data, for each isotopomer and for each derivative. Albumin-bound Phe was analysed as ECTFE-phe with improved precision, independent of the isotopomer used, confirming that the new derivative is superior. Copyright 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Further studies with data collected by NASA's airborne Doppler lidar in Oklahoma in 1981

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bluestein, H. B.; Mccaul, E. W., Jr.

1986-01-01

Continued study of the lidar data collected in 1981 has resulted in significant new improvements in the analysis techniques reported by Bluestein et al. (1985) and McCaul (1985). Through comparison of fore- and aft-derived scalar fields of intensity and spectral width, the self-consistency of the lidar moment estimates was assessed. Reflectivity estimates were found to be quite stable and reliable, while spectral widths were prone to become noisy if signal to noise ratio (SNR) fell below 12 dB. In addition, spectral widths contained a significant component due to radial velocity gradients in areas along gust fronts, and these components were different along the fore and aft lines of sight. Significant improvement in agreement between the fore and aft fields of spectral width was obtained by estimating the radial velocity gradient component and then removing it from the raw measured widths to yield only the turbulent portion of the contribution to width. Additional analyses showed that lidar-derived vorticity estimates were consistent with several approximate models of vorticity growth along gust front zones, and with the hypothesis that Helmholtz instability could have been responsible for vortices seen along part of the gust front of 30 June 1981. Computations of divergence transverse to axes through an isolated cumulus congestus indicated that the strongest convergence tended to lie along an axis parallel to the congestus. This and the results of other additional analyses seem to suggest that the lidar winds do indeed accurately reflected the basic features of the real wind field.

Realistic sampling of anisotropic correlogram parameters for conditional simulation of daily rainfields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gyasi-Agyei, Yeboah

2018-01-01

This paper has established a link between the spatial structure of radar rainfall, which more robustly describes the spatial structure, and gauge rainfall for improved daily rainfield simulation conditioned on the limited gauged data for regions with or without radar records. A two-dimensional anisotropic exponential function that has parameters of major and minor axes lengths, and direction, is used to describe the correlogram (spatial structure) of daily rainfall in the Gaussian domain. The link is a copula-based joint distribution of the radar-derived correlogram parameters that uses the gauge-derived correlogram parameters and maximum daily temperature as covariates of the Box-Cox power exponential margins and Gumbel copula. While the gauge-derived, radar-derived and the copula-derived correlogram parameters reproduced the mean estimates similarly using leave-one-out cross-validation of ordinary kriging, the gauge-derived parameters yielded higher standard deviation (SD) of the Gaussian quantile which reflects uncertainty in over 90% of cases. However, the distribution of the SD generated by the radar-derived and the copula-derived parameters could not be distinguished. For the validation case, the percentage of cases of higher SD by the gauge-derived parameter sets decreased to 81.2% and 86.6% for the non-calibration and the calibration periods, respectively. It has been observed that 1% reduction in the Gaussian quantile SD can cause over 39% reduction in the SD of the median rainfall estimate, actual reduction being dependent on the distribution of rainfall of the day. Hence the main advantage of using the most correct radar correlogram parameters is to reduce the uncertainty associated with conditional simulations that rely on SD through kriging.

Using LiDAR and quickbird data to model plant production and quantify uncertainties associated with wetland detection and land cover generalizations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cook, B.D.; Bolstad, P.V.; Naesset, E.; Anderson, R. Scott; Garrigues, S.; Morisette, J.T.; Nickeson, J.; Davis, K.J.

2009-01-01

Spatiotemporal data from satellite remote sensing and surface meteorology networks have made it possible to continuously monitor global plant production, and to identify global trends associated with land cover/use and climate change. Gross primary production (GPP) and net primary production (NPP) are routinely derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard satellites Terra and Aqua, and estimates generally agree with independent measurements at validation sites across the globe. However, the accuracy of GPP and NPP estimates in some regions may be limited by the quality of model input variables and heterogeneity at fine spatial scales. We developed new methods for deriving model inputs (i.e., land cover, leaf area, and photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by plant canopies) from airborne laser altimetry (LiDAR) and Quickbird multispectral data at resolutions ranging from about 30??m to 1??km. In addition, LiDAR-derived biomass was used as a means for computing carbon-use efficiency. Spatial variables were used with temporal data from ground-based monitoring stations to compute a six-year GPP and NPP time series for a 3600??ha study site in the Great Lakes region of North America. Model results compared favorably with independent observations from a 400??m flux tower and a process-based ecosystem model (BIOME-BGC), but only after removing vapor pressure deficit as a constraint on photosynthesis from the MODIS global algorithm. Fine-resolution inputs captured more of the spatial variability, but estimates were similar to coarse-resolution data when integrated across the entire landscape. Failure to account for wetlands had little impact on landscape-scale estimates, because vegetation structure, composition, and conversion efficiencies were similar to upland plant communities. Plant productivity estimates were noticeably improved using LiDAR-derived variables, while uncertainties associated with land cover generalizations and wetlands in this largely forested landscape were considered less important.

Chernobyl accident: reconstruction of thyroid dose for inhabitants of the Republic of Belarus.

PubMed

Gavrilin, Y I; Khrouch, V T; Shinkarev, S M; Krysenko, N A; Skryabin, A M; Bouville, A; Anspaugh, L R

1999-02-01

The Chernobyl accident in April 1986 resulted in widespread contamination of the environment with radioactive materials, including (131)I and other radioiodines. This environmental contamination led to substantial radiation doses in the thyroids of many inhabitants of the Republic of Belarus. The reconstruction of thyroid doses received by Belarussians is based primarily on exposure rates measured against the neck of more than 200,000 people in the more contaminated territories; these measurements were carried out within a few weeks after the accident and before the decay of (131)I to negligible levels. Preliminary estimates of thyroid dose have been divided into 3 classes: Class 1 ("measured" doses), Class 2 (doses "derived by affinity"), and Class 3 ("empirically-derived" doses). Class 1 doses are estimated directly from the measured thyroidal (131)I content of the person considered, plus information on lifestyle and dietary habits. Such estimates are available for about 130,000 individuals from the contaminated areas of the Gomel and Mogilev Oblasts and from the city of Minsk. Maximum individual doses are estimated to range up to about 60 Gy. For every village with a sufficient number of residents with Class 1 doses, individual thyroid dose distributions are determined for several age groups and levels of milk consumption. These data are used to derive Class 2 thyroid dose estimates for unmeasured inhabitants of these villages. For any village where the number of residents with Class 1 thyroid doses is small or equal to zero, individual thyroid doses of Class 3 are derived from the relationship obtained between the mean adult thyroid dose and the deposition density of (131)I or 137Cs in villages with Class 2 thyroid doses presenting characteristics similar to those of the village considered. In order to improve the reliability of the Class 3 thyroid doses, an extensive program of measurement of (129)I in soils is envisaged.

Accuracy and reliability of noninvasive stroke volume monitoring via ECG-gated 3D electrical impedance tomography in healthy volunteers.

PubMed

Braun, Fabian; Proença, Martin; Adler, Andy; Riedel, Thomas; Thiran, Jean-Philippe; Solà, Josep

2018-01-01

Cardiac output (CO) and stroke volume (SV) are parameters of key clinical interest. Many techniques exist to measure CO and SV, but are either invasive or insufficiently accurate in clinical settings. Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) has been suggested as a noninvasive measure of SV, but inconsistent results have been reported. Our goal is to determine the accuracy and reliability of EIT-based SV measurements, and whether advanced image reconstruction approaches can help to improve the estimates. Data were collected on ten healthy volunteers undergoing postural changes and exercise. To overcome the sensitivity to heart displacement and thorax morphology reported in previous work, we used a 3D EIT configuration with 2 planes of 16 electrodes and subject-specific reconstruction models. Various EIT-derived SV estimates were compared to reference measurements derived from the oxygen uptake. Results revealed a dramatic impact of posture on the EIT images. Therefore, the analysis was restricted to measurements in supine position under controlled conditions (low noise and stable heart and lung regions). In these measurements, amplitudes of impedance changes in the heart and lung regions could successfully be derived from EIT using ECG gating. However, despite a subject-specific calibration the heart-related estimates showed an error of 0.0 ± 15.2 mL for absolute SV estimation. For trending of relative SV changes, a concordance rate of 80.9% and an angular error of -1.0 ± 23.0° were obtained. These performances are insufficient for most clinical uses. Similar conclusions were derived from lung-related estimates. Our findings indicate that the key difficulty in EIT-based SV monitoring is that purely amplitude-based features are strongly influenced by other factors (such as posture, electrode contact impedance and lung or heart conductivity). All the data of the present study are made publicly available for further investigations.

Accuracy and reliability of noninvasive stroke volume monitoring via ECG-gated 3D electrical impedance tomography in healthy volunteers

PubMed Central

Proença, Martin; Adler, Andy; Riedel, Thomas; Thiran, Jean-Philippe; Solà, Josep

2018-01-01

Cardiac output (CO) and stroke volume (SV) are parameters of key clinical interest. Many techniques exist to measure CO and SV, but are either invasive or insufficiently accurate in clinical settings. Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) has been suggested as a noninvasive measure of SV, but inconsistent results have been reported. Our goal is to determine the accuracy and reliability of EIT-based SV measurements, and whether advanced image reconstruction approaches can help to improve the estimates. Data were collected on ten healthy volunteers undergoing postural changes and exercise. To overcome the sensitivity to heart displacement and thorax morphology reported in previous work, we used a 3D EIT configuration with 2 planes of 16 electrodes and subject-specific reconstruction models. Various EIT-derived SV estimates were compared to reference measurements derived from the oxygen uptake. Results revealed a dramatic impact of posture on the EIT images. Therefore, the analysis was restricted to measurements in supine position under controlled conditions (low noise and stable heart and lung regions). In these measurements, amplitudes of impedance changes in the heart and lung regions could successfully be derived from EIT using ECG gating. However, despite a subject-specific calibration the heart-related estimates showed an error of 0.0 ± 15.2 mL for absolute SV estimation. For trending of relative SV changes, a concordance rate of 80.9% and an angular error of −1.0 ± 23.0° were obtained. These performances are insufficient for most clinical uses. Similar conclusions were derived from lung-related estimates. Our findings indicate that the key difficulty in EIT-based SV monitoring is that purely amplitude-based features are strongly influenced by other factors (such as posture, electrode contact impedance and lung or heart conductivity). All the data of the present study are made publicly available for further investigations. PMID:29373611

A comparison of top-down and bottom-up carbon dioxide fluxes in the UK using a multi-platform measurement network.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, Emily; Rigby, Matt; O'Doherty, Simon; Stavert, Ann; Lunt, Mark; Nemitz, Eiko; Helfter, Carole; Allen, Grant; Pitt, Joe; Bauguitte, Stéphane; Levy, Pete; van Oijen, Marcel; Williams, Mat; Smallman, Luke; Palmer, Paul

2016-04-01

Having a comprehensive understanding, on a countrywide scale, of both biogenic and anthropogenic CO2 emissions is essential for knowing how best to reduce anthropogenic emissions and for understanding how the terrestrial biosphere is responding to global fossil fuel emissions. Whilst anthropogenic CO2 flux estimates are fairly well constrained, fluxes from biogenic sources are not. This work will help to verify existing anthropogenic emissions inventories and give a better understanding of biosphere - atmosphere CO2 exchange. Using an innovative top-down inversion scheme; a hierarchical Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach with reversible jump "trans-dimensional" basis function selection, we aim to find emissions estimates for biogenic and anthropogenic sources simultaneously. Our approach allows flux uncertainties to be derived more comprehensively than previous methods, and allows the resolved spatial scales in the solution to be determined using the data. We use atmospheric CO2 mole fraction data from the UK Deriving Emissions related to Climate Change (DECC) and Greenhouse gAs UK and Global Emissions (GAUGE) projects. The network comprises of 6 tall tower sites, flight campaigns and a ferry transect along the east coast, and enables us to derive high-resolution monthly flux estimates across the UK and Ireland for the period 2013-2015. We have derived UK total fluxes of 675 PIC 78 Tg/yr during January 2014 (seasonal maximum) and 23 PIC 96 Tg/yr during May 2014 (seasonal minimum). Our disaggregated anthropogenic and biogenic flux estimates are compared to a new high-resolution time resolved anthropogenic inventory that will underpin future UNFCCC reports by the UK, and to DALEC carbon cycle model. This allows us to identify where significant differences exist between these "bottom-up" and "top-down" flux estimates and suggest reasons for discrepancies. We will highlight the strengths and limitations of the UK's CO2 emissions verification infrastructure at present and outline improvements that could be made in the future.

Improving the representation of Arctic photosynthesis in Earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, A.; Serbin, S.; Ely, K.; Sloan, V. L.; Wyatt, R. A.; Kubien, D. S.; Ali, A. A.; Xu, C.; Wullschleger, S. D.

2015-12-01

The primary goal of Earth System Models (ESMs) is to improve understanding and projection of future global change. In order to do this they must accurately represent the carbon fluxes associated with the terrestrial carbon cycle. Although Arctic carbon fluxes are small - relative to global carbon fluxes - uncertainty is large. As part of a multidisciplinary project to improve the representation of the Arctic in ESMs (Next Generation Ecosystem Experiments - Arctic) we are examining the photosynthetic parameterization of the Arctic plant functional type (PFT) in ESMs. Photosynthetic CO2 uptake is well described by the Farquhar, von Caemmerer and Berry (FvCB) model of photosynthesis. Most ESMs use a derivation of the FvCB model to calculate gross primary productivity. Two key parameters required by the FvCB model are an estimate of the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco (Vc,max) and the maximum rate of electron transport (Jmax). In ESMs the parameter Vc,max is usually fixed for a given PFT. Only four ESMs currently have an explicit Arctic PFT and the data used to derive Vc,max for the Arctic PFT in these models relies on small data sets and unjustified assumptions. We examined the derivation of Vc,max and Jmax in current Arctic PFTs and estimated Vc,max and Jmax for 7 species representing both dominant vegetation and key Arctic PFTs growing on the Barrow Environmental Observatory, Barrow, AK. The values of Vc,max currently used to represent Arctic PFTs in ESMs are 70% lower than the values we measured in these species. Examination of the derivation of Vc,max in ESMs identified that the cause of the relatively low Vc,max value was the result of underestimating both the leaf N content and the investment of that N in Rubisco. Contemporary temperature response functions for Vc,max also appear to underestimate Vc,max at low temperature. ESMs typically use a single multiplier (JVratio) to convert Vc,max to Jmax for all PFTs. We found that the JVratio of Arctic plants is higher than current estimates suggesting that the Arctic PFT will be more responsive to rising carbon dioxide than currently projected. Our data suggest that the Arctic tundra has a much greater capacity for CO2 uptake, particularly at low temperature, and will be more CO2 responsive than is currently represented in ESMs.

Opportunities for international collaboration in dog breeding from the sharing of pedigree and health data.

PubMed

Fikse, W F; Malm, S; Lewis, T W

2013-09-01

Pooling of pedigree and phenotype data from different countries may improve the accuracy of derived indicators of both genetic diversity and genetic merit of traits of interest. This study demonstrates significant migration of individuals of four pedigree dog breeds between Sweden and the United Kingdom. Correlations of estimates of genetic merit (estimated breeding values, EBVs) for the Fédération Cynologique Internationale and the British Veterinary Association and Kennel Club evaluations of hip dysplasia (HD) were strong and favourable, indicating that both scoring schemes capture substantially the same genetic trait. Therefore pooled use of phenotypic data on hip dysplasia would be expected to improve the accuracy of EBV for HD in both countries due to increased sample data. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The use of aerial photographs and angle-gauge sampling of tree crown diameters for forest inventories

Treesearch

Lawrence R. Gering; Dennis M. May; Kurt B. Teuber

1990-01-01

The Forest Inventory and Analysis unit of the Southern Forest Experiment Station is charged with conducting continuous inventories of the forest resources of the Midsouth.Techniques that offer innovative approaches for improving the efficiency of these inventories are in demand.One new approach for estimating the density of forest stands involves the derivation of a...

Applying the concept of ecohydrological equilibrium to predict steady-state leaf area index for Australian ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Medlyn, B.; De Kauwe, M. G.; Duursma, R.

2017-12-01

Leaf Area Index (LAI) is a key variable in modelling terrestrial vegetation, because it has a major impact on carbon, water and energy fluxes. However, LAI is difficult to predict: several recent intercomparisons have shown that modelled LAI differs significantly among models, and between models and satellite-derived estimates. Empirical studies show that long-term mean LAI is strongly related to mean annual precipitation. This observation is predicted by the theory of ecohydrological equilibrium, which provides a promising alternative means to predict steady-state LAI. We implemented this theory in a simple optimisation model. We hypothesized that, when water availability is limited, plants should adjust long-term LAI and stomatal behavior (g1) to maximize net canopy carbon export, under the constraint that canopy transpiration is a fixed fraction of total precipitation. We evaluated the predicted LAI (Lopt) for Australia against ground-based observations of LAI at 135 sites, and continental-scale satellite-derived estimates. For the site-level data, the RMSE of predicted Lopt was 0.14 m2 m-2, which was similar to the RMSE of a comparison of the data against nine-year mean satellite-derived LAI at those sites. Continentally, Lopt had a R2 of over 70% when compared to satellite-derived LAI, which is comparable to the R2 obtained when different satellite products are compared against each other. The predicted response of Lopt to the increase in atmospheric CO2 over the last 30 years also agreed with the estimate based on satellite-derivatives. Our results indicate that long-term equilibrium LAI can be successfully predicted from a simple application of ecohydrological theory. We suggest that this theory could be usefully incorporated into terrestrial vegetation models to improve their predictions of LAI.

Flight data identification of six degree-of-freedom stability and control derivatives of a large crane type helicopter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tomaine, R. L.

1976-01-01

Flight test data from a large 'crane' type helicopter were collected and processed for the purpose of identifying vehicle rigid body stability and control derivatives. The process consisted of using digital and Kalman filtering techniques for state estimation and Extended Kalman filtering for parameter identification, utilizing a least squares algorithm for initial derivative and variance estimates. Data were processed for indicated airspeeds from 0 m/sec to 152 m/sec. Pulse, doublet and step control inputs were investigated. Digital filter frequency did not have a major effect on the identification process, while the initial derivative estimates and the estimated variances had an appreciable effect on many derivative estimates. The major derivatives identified agreed fairly well with analytical predictions and engineering experience. Doublet control inputs provided better results than pulse or step inputs.

Efficient temporal and interlayer parameter prediction for weighted prediction in scalable high efficiency video coding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsang, Sik-Ho; Chan, Yui-Lam; Siu, Wan-Chi

2017-01-01

Weighted prediction (WP) is an efficient video coding tool that was introduced since the establishment of the H.264/AVC video coding standard, for compensating the temporal illumination change in motion estimation and compensation. WP parameters, including a multiplicative weight and an additive offset for each reference frame, are required to be estimated and transmitted to the decoder by slice header. These parameters cause extra bits in the coded video bitstream. High efficiency video coding (HEVC) provides WP parameter prediction to reduce the overhead. Therefore, WP parameter prediction is crucial to research works or applications, which are related to WP. Prior art has been suggested to further improve the WP parameter prediction by implicit prediction of image characteristics and derivation of parameters. By exploiting both temporal and interlayer redundancies, we propose three WP parameter prediction algorithms, enhanced implicit WP parameter, enhanced direct WP parameter derivation, and interlayer WP parameter, to further improve the coding efficiency of HEVC. Results show that our proposed algorithms can achieve up to 5.83% and 5.23% bitrate reduction compared to the conventional scalable HEVC in the base layer for SNR scalability and 2× spatial scalability, respectively.

Assimilation of remote sensing observations into a continuous distributed hydrological model: impacts on the hydrologic cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laiolo, Paola; Gabellani, Simone; Campo, Lorenzo; Cenci, Luca; Silvestro, Francesco; Delogu, Fabio; Boni, Giorgio; Rudari, Roberto

2015-04-01

The reliable estimation of hydrological variables (e.g. soil moisture, evapotranspiration, surface temperature) in space and time is of fundamental importance in operational hydrology to improve the forecast of the rainfall-runoff response of catchments and, consequently, flood predictions. Nowadays remote sensing can offer a chance to provide good space-time estimates of several hydrological variables and then improve hydrological model performances especially in environments with scarce in-situ data. This work investigates the impact of the assimilation of different remote sensing products on the hydrological cycle by using a continuous physically based distributed hydrological model. Three soil moisture products derived by ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer) are used to update the model state variables. The satellite-derived products are assimilated into the hydrological model using different assimilation techniques: a simple nudging and the Ensemble Kalman Filter. Moreover two assimilation strategies are evaluated to assess the impact of assimilating the satellite products at model spatial resolution or at the satellite scale. The experiments are carried out for three Italian catchments on multi year period. The benefits on the model predictions of discharge, LST, evapotranspiration and soil moisture dynamics are tested and discussed.

Vascular input function correction of inflow enhancement for improved pharmacokinetic modeling of liver DCE-MRI.

PubMed

Ning, Jia; Schubert, Tilman; Johnson, Kevin M; Roldán-Alzate, Alejandro; Chen, Huijun; Yuan, Chun; Reeder, Scott B

2018-06-01

To propose a simple method to correct vascular input function (VIF) due to inflow effects and to test whether the proposed method can provide more accurate VIFs for improved pharmacokinetic modeling. A spoiled gradient echo sequence-based inflow quantification and contrast agent concentration correction method was proposed. Simulations were conducted to illustrate improvement in the accuracy of VIF estimation and pharmacokinetic fitting. Animal studies with dynamic contrast-enhanced MR scans were conducted before, 1 week after, and 2 weeks after portal vein embolization (PVE) was performed in the left portal circulation of pigs. The proposed method was applied to correct the VIFs for model fitting. Pharmacokinetic parameters fitted using corrected and uncorrected VIFs were compared between different lobes and visits. Simulation results demonstrated that the proposed method can improve accuracy of VIF estimation and pharmacokinetic fitting. In animal study results, pharmacokinetic fitting using corrected VIFs demonstrated changes in perfusion consistent with changes expected after PVE, whereas the perfusion estimates derived by uncorrected VIFs showed no significant changes. The proposed correction method improves accuracy of VIFs and therefore provides more precise pharmacokinetic fitting. This method may be promising in improving the reliability of perfusion quantification. Magn Reson Med 79:3093-3102, 2018. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

A comparison of the performances of an artificial neural network and a regression model for GFR estimation.

PubMed

Liu, Xun; Li, Ning-shan; Lv, Lin-sheng; Huang, Jian-hua; Tang, Hua; Chen, Jin-xia; Ma, Hui-juan; Wu, Xiao-ming; Lou, Tan-qi

2013-12-01

Accurate estimation of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is important in clinical practice. Current models derived from regression are limited by the imprecision of GFR estimates. We hypothesized that an artificial neural network (ANN) might improve the precision of GFR estimates. A study of diagnostic test accuracy. 1,230 patients with chronic kidney disease were enrolled, including the development cohort (n=581), internal validation cohort (n=278), and external validation cohort (n=371). Estimated GFR (eGFR) using a new ANN model and a new regression model using age, sex, and standardized serum creatinine level derived in the development and internal validation cohort, and the CKD-EPI (Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration) 2009 creatinine equation. Measured GFR (mGFR). GFR was measured using a diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid renal dynamic imaging method. Serum creatinine was measured with an enzymatic method traceable to isotope-dilution mass spectrometry. In the external validation cohort, mean mGFR was 49±27 (SD) mL/min/1.73 m2 and biases (median difference between mGFR and eGFR) for the CKD-EPI, new regression, and new ANN models were 0.4, 1.5, and -0.5 mL/min/1.73 m2, respectively (P<0.001 and P=0.02 compared to CKD-EPI and P<0.001 comparing the new regression and ANN models). Precisions (IQRs for the difference) were 22.6, 14.9, and 15.6 mL/min/1.73 m2, respectively (P<0.001 for both compared to CKD-EPI and P<0.001 comparing the new ANN and new regression models). Accuracies (proportions of eGFRs not deviating >30% from mGFR) were 50.9%, 77.4%, and 78.7%, respectively (P<0.001 for both compared to CKD-EPI and P=0.5 comparing the new ANN and new regression models). Different methods for measuring GFR were a source of systematic bias in comparisons of new models to CKD-EPI, and both the derivation and validation cohorts consisted of a group of patients who were referred to the same institution. An ANN model using 3 variables did not perform better than a new regression model. Whether ANN can improve GFR estimation using more variables requires further investigation. Copyright © 2013 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Atmospheric gradients from GNSS, VLBI, and DORIS analyses and from Numerical Weather Models during CONT14

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinkelmann, Robert; Dick, Galina; Nilsson, Tobias; Soja, Benedikt; Wickert, Jens; Zus, Florian; Schuh, Harald

2015-04-01

Observations from space-geodetic techniques are nowadays increasingly used to derive atmospheric information for various commercial and scientific applications. A prominent example is the operational use of GNSS data to improve global and regional weather forecasts, which was started in 2006. Atmosphere gradients describe the azimuthal asymmetry of zenith delays. Estimates of geodetic and other parameters significantly improve when atmosphere gradients are determined in addition. Here we assess the capability of several space geodetic techniques (GNSS, VLBI, DORIS) to determine atmosphere gradients of refractivity. For this purpose we implement and compare various strategies for gradient estimation, such as different values for the temporal resolution and the corresponding parameter constraints. Applying least squares estimation the gradients are usually deterministically modelled as constants or piece-wise linear functions. In our study we compare this approach with a stochastic approach modelling atmosphere gradients as random walk processes and applying a Kalman Filter for parameter estimation. The gradients, derived from space geodetic techniques are verified by comparison with those derived from Numerical Weather Models (NWM). These model data were generated using raytracing calculations based on European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) analyses with different spatial resolutions. The investigation of the differences between the ECMWF and NCEP gradients hereby in addition allow for an empirical assessment of the quality of model gradients and how suitable the NWM data are for verification. CONT14 (2014-05-06 until 2014-05-20) is the youngest two week long continuous VLBI campaign carried out by IVS (International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry). It presents the state-of-the-art VLBI performance in terms of number of stations and number of observations and presents thus an excellent test period for comparisons with other space geodetic techniques. During the VLBI campaign CONT14 the HOBART12 and HOBART26 (Hobart, Tasmania, Australia) VLBI antennas were involved that co-locate with each other. The investigation of the gradient estimate differences from these co-located antennas allows for a valuable empirical quality assessment. Another quality criterion for gradient estimates are the differences of parameters at the borders of adjacent 24h-sessions. Both are investigated in our study.

Estimating the global incidence of traumatic spinal cord injury.

PubMed

Fitzharris, M; Cripps, R A; Lee, B B

2014-02-01

Population modelling--forecasting. To estimate the global incidence of traumatic spinal cord injury (TSCI). An initiative of the International Spinal Cord Society (ISCoS) Prevention Committee. Regression techniques were used to derive regional and global estimates of TSCI incidence. Using the findings of 31 published studies, a regression model was fitted using a known number of TSCI cases as the dependent variable and the population at risk as the single independent variable. In the process of deriving TSCI incidence, an alternative TSCI model was specified in an attempt to arrive at an optimal way of estimating the global incidence of TSCI. The global incidence of TSCI was estimated to be 23 cases per 1,000,000 persons in 2007 (179,312 cases per annum). World Health Organization's regional results are provided. Understanding the incidence of TSCI is important for health service planning and for the determination of injury prevention priorities. In the absence of high-quality epidemiological studies of TSCI in each country, the estimation of TSCI obtained through population modelling can be used to overcome known deficits in global spinal cord injury (SCI) data. The incidence of TSCI is context specific, and an alternative regression model demonstrated how TSCI incidence estimates could be improved with additional data. The results highlight the need for data standardisation and comprehensive reporting of national level TSCI data. A step-wise approach from the collation of conventional epidemiological data through to population modelling is suggested.

Progress in Remote Sensing of Photosynthetic Activity over the Amazon Basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Resende de Sousa, Celio Helder; Hilker, Thomas; Waring, Richard; Mendes De Moura, Yhasmin; Lyapustin, Alexei

2017-01-01

Although quantifying the massive exchange of carbon that takes place over the Amazon Basin remains a challenge, progress is being made as the remote sensing community moves from using traditional, reflectance-based vegetation indices, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), to the more functional Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI). This new index, together with satellite-derived estimates of canopy light interception and Sun-Induced Fluorescence (SIF), provide improved estimates of Gross Primary Production (GPP). This paper traces the development of these new approaches, compares the results of their analyses from multiple years of data acquired across the Amazon Basin and suggests further improvements in instrument design, data acquisition and processing. We demonstrated that our estimates of PRI are in generally good agreement with eddy-flux tower measurements of photosynthetic light use efficiency (epsilon) at four sites in the Amazon Basin: r(exp 2) values ranged from 0.37 to 0.51 for northern flux sites and to 0.78for southern flux sites. This is a significant advance over previous approaches seeking to establish a link between global-scale photosynthetic activity and remotely-sensed data. When combined with measurements of Sun-Induced Fluorescence (SIF), PRI provides realistic estimates of seasonal variation in photosynthesis over the Amazon that relate well to the wet and dry seasons. We anticipate that our findings will steer the development of improved approaches to estimate photosynthetic activity over the tropics.

Progress in Remote Sensing of Photosynthetic Activity over the Amazon Basin

PubMed Central

de Sousa, Celio Helder Resende; Hilker, Thomas; Waring, Richard; de Moura, Yhasmin Mendes; Lyapustin, Alexei

2017-01-01

Although quantifying the massive exchange of carbon that takes place over the Amazon Basin remains a challenge, progress is being made as the remote sensing community moves from using traditional, reflectance-based vegetation indices, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), to the more functional Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI). This new index, together with satellite-derived estimates of canopy light interception and Sun-Induced Fluorescence (SIF), provide improved estimates of Gross Primary Production (GPP). This paper traces the development of these new approaches, compares the results of their analyses from multiple years of data acquired across the Amazon Basin and suggests further improvements in instrument design, data acquisition and processing. We demonstrated that our estimates of PRI are in generally good agreement with eddy-flux tower measurements of photosynthetic light use efficiency (ε) at four sites in the Amazon Basin: r2 values ranged from 0.37 to 0.51 for northern flux sites and to 0.78 for southern flux sites. This is a significant advance over previous approaches seeking to establish a link between global-scale photosynthetic activity and remotely-sensed data. When combined with measurements of Sun-Induced Fluorescence (SIF), PRI provides realistic estimates of seasonal variation in photosynthesis over the Amazon that relate well to the wet and dry seasons. We anticipate that our findings will steer the development of improved approaches to estimate photosynthetic activity over the tropics. PMID:29375895

Progress in Remote Sensing of Photosynthetic Activity over the Amazon Basin.

PubMed

de Sousa, Celio Helder Resende; Hilker, Thomas; Waring, Richard; de Moura, Yhasmin Mendes; Lyapustin, Alexei

2017-01-01

Although quantifying the massive exchange of carbon that takes place over the Amazon Basin remains a challenge, progress is being made as the remote sensing community moves from using traditional, reflectance-based vegetation indices, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), to the more functional Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI). This new index, together with satellite-derived estimates of canopy light interception and Sun-Induced Fluorescence (SIF), provide improved estimates of Gross Primary Production (GPP). This paper traces the development of these new approaches, compares the results of their analyses from multiple years of data acquired across the Amazon Basin and suggests further improvements in instrument design, data acquisition and processing. We demonstrated that our estimates of PRI are in generally good agreement with eddy-flux tower measurements of photosynthetic light use efficiency (ε) at four sites in the Amazon Basin: r 2 values ranged from 0.37 to 0.51 for northern flux sites and to 0.78 for southern flux sites. This is a significant advance over previous approaches seeking to establish a link between global-scale photosynthetic activity and remotely-sensed data. When combined with measurements of Sun-Induced Fluorescence (SIF), PRI provides realistic estimates of seasonal variation in photosynthesis over the Amazon that relate well to the wet and dry seasons. We anticipate that our findings will steer the development of improved approaches to estimate photosynthetic activity over the tropics.

Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions from Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometry. Part II: Evaluation of Estimates Using Independent Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Song; Olson, William S.; Wang, Jian-Jian; Bell, Thomas L.; Smith, Eric A.; Kummerow, Christian D.

2006-01-01

Rainfall rate estimates from spaceborne microwave radiometers are generally accepted as reliable by a majority of the atmospheric science community. One of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) facility rain-rate algorithms is based upon passive microwave observations from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI). In Part I of this series, improvements of the TMI algorithm that are required to introduce latent heating as an additional algorithm product are described. Here, estimates of surface rain rate, convective proportion, and latent heating are evaluated using independent ground-based estimates and satellite products. Instantaneous, 0.5 deg. -resolution estimates of surface rain rate over ocean from the improved TMI algorithm are well correlated with independent radar estimates (r approx. 0.88 over the Tropics), but bias reduction is the most significant improvement over earlier algorithms. The bias reduction is attributed to the greater breadth of cloud-resolving model simulations that support the improved algorithm and the more consistent and specific convective/stratiform rain separation method utilized. The bias of monthly 2.5 -resolution estimates is similarly reduced, with comparable correlations to radar estimates. Although the amount of independent latent heating data is limited, TMI-estimated latent heating profiles compare favorably with instantaneous estimates based upon dual-Doppler radar observations, and time series of surface rain-rate and heating profiles are generally consistent with those derived from rawinsonde analyses. Still, some biases in profile shape are evident, and these may be resolved with (a) additional contextual information brought to the estimation problem and/or (b) physically consistent and representative databases supporting the algorithm. A model of the random error in instantaneous 0.5 deg. -resolution rain-rate estimates appears to be consistent with the levels of error determined from TMI comparisons with collocated radar. Error model modifications for nonraining situations will be required, however. Sampling error represents only a portion of the total error in monthly 2.5 -resolution TMI estimates; the remaining error is attributed to random and systematic algorithm errors arising from the physical inconsistency and/or nonrepresentativeness of cloud-resolving-model-simulated profiles that support the algorithm.

Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions from Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometry. Part 2; Evaluation of Estimates Using Independent Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Song; Olson, William S.; Wang, Jian-Jian; Bell, Thomas L.; Smith, Eric A.; Kummerow, Christian D.

2004-01-01

Rainfall rate estimates from space-borne k&ents are generally accepted as reliable by a majority of the atmospheric science commu&y. One-of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRh4M) facility rain rate algorithms is based upon passive microwave observations fiom the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI). Part I of this study describes improvements in the TMI algorithm that are required to introduce cloud latent heating and drying as additional algorithm products. Here, estimates of surface rain rate, convective proportion, and latent heating are evaluated using independent ground-based estimates and satellite products. Instantaneous, OP5resolution estimates of surface rain rate over ocean fiom the improved TMI algorithm are well correlated with independent radar estimates (r approx. 0.88 over the Tropics), but bias reduction is the most significant improvement over forerunning algorithms. The bias reduction is attributed to the greater breadth of cloud-resolving model simulations that support the improved algorithm, and the more consistent and specific convective/stratiform rain separation method utilized. The bias of monthly, 2.5 deg. -resolution estimates is similarly reduced, with comparable correlations to radar estimates. Although the amount of independent latent heating data are limited, TMI estimated latent heating profiles compare favorably with instantaneous estimates based upon dual-Doppler radar observations, and time series of surface rain rate and heating profiles are generally consistent with those derived from rawinsonde analyses. Still, some biases in profile shape are evident, and these may be resolved with: (a) additional contextual information brought to the estimation problem, and/or; (b) physically-consistent and representative databases supporting the algorithm. A model of the random error in instantaneous, 0.5 deg-resolution rain rate estimates appears to be consistent with the levels of error determined from TMI comparisons to collocated radar. Error model modifications for non-raining situations will be required, however. Sampling error appears to represent only a fraction of the total error in monthly, 2S0-resolution TMI estimates; the remaining error is attributed to physical inconsistency or non-representativeness of cloud-resolving model simulated profiles supporting the algorithm.

Improving Forecasts Through Realistic Uncertainty Estimates: A Novel Data Driven Method for Model Uncertainty Quantification in Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathiraja, S. D.; Moradkhani, H.; Marshall, L. A.; Sharma, A.; Geenens, G.

2016-12-01

Effective combination of model simulations and observations through Data Assimilation (DA) depends heavily on uncertainty characterisation. Many traditional methods for quantifying model uncertainty in DA require some level of subjectivity (by way of tuning parameters or by assuming Gaussian statistics). Furthermore, the focus is typically on only estimating the first and second moments. We propose a data-driven methodology to estimate the full distributional form of model uncertainty, i.e. the transition density p(xt|xt-1). All sources of uncertainty associated with the model simulations are considered collectively, without needing to devise stochastic perturbations for individual components (such as model input, parameter and structural uncertainty). A training period is used to derive the distribution of errors in observed variables conditioned on hidden states. Errors in hidden states are estimated from the conditional distribution of observed variables using non-linear optimization. The theory behind the framework and case study applications are discussed in detail. Results demonstrate improved predictions and more realistic uncertainty bounds compared to a standard perturbation approach.

Pilot-scale data provide enhanced estimates of the life cycle energy and emissions profile of algae biofuels produced via hydrothermal liquefaction.

PubMed

Liu, Xiaowei; Saydah, Benjamin; Eranki, Pragnya; Colosi, Lisa M; Greg Mitchell, B; Rhodes, James; Clarens, Andres F

2013-11-01

Life cycle assessment (LCA) has been used widely to estimate the environmental implications of deploying algae-to-energy systems even though no full-scale facilities have yet to be built. Here, data from a pilot-scale facility using hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) is used to estimate the life cycle profiles at full scale. Three scenarios (lab-, pilot-, and full-scale) were defined to understand how development in the industry could impact its life cycle burdens. HTL-derived algae fuels were found to have lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than petroleum fuels. Algae-derived gasoline had significantly lower GHG emissions than corn ethanol. Most algae-based fuels have an energy return on investment between 1 and 3, which is lower than petroleum biofuels. Sensitivity analyses reveal several areas in which improvements by algae bioenergy companies (e.g., biocrude yields, nutrient recycle) and by supporting industries (e.g., CO2 supply chains) could reduce the burdens of the industry. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Speed Profiles for Improvement of Maritime Emission Estimation.

PubMed

Yau, Pui Shan; Lee, Shun-Cheng; Ho, Kin Fai

2012-12-01

Maritime emissions play an important role in anthropogenic emissions, particularly for cities with busy ports such as Hong Kong. Ship emissions are strongly dependent on vessel speed, and thus accurate vessel speed is essential for maritime emission studies. In this study, we determined minute-by-minute high-resolution speed profiles of container ships on four major routes in Hong Kong waters using Automatic Identification System (AIS). The activity-based ship emissions of NO(x), CO, HC, CO(2), SO(2), and PM(10) were estimated using derived vessel speed profiles, and results were compared with those using the speed limits of control zones. Estimation using speed limits resulted in up to twofold overestimation of ship emissions. Compared with emissions estimated using the speed limits of control zones, emissions estimated using vessel speed profiles could provide results with up to 88% higher accuracy. Uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis of the model demonstrated the significance of improvement of vessel speed resolution. From spatial analysis, it is revealed that SO(2) and PM(10) emissions during maneuvering within 1 nautical mile from port were the highest. They contributed 7%-22% of SO(2) emissions and 8%-17% of PM(10) emissions of the entire voyage in Hong Kong.

Rainfall estimation by inverting SMOS soil moisture estimates: A comparison of different methods over Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brocca, Luca; Pellarin, Thierry; Crow, Wade T.; Ciabatta, Luca; Massari, Christian; Ryu, Dongryeol; Su, Chun-Hsu; Rüdiger, Christoph; Kerr, Yann

2016-10-01

Remote sensing of soil moisture has reached a level of maturity and accuracy for which the retrieved products can be used to improve hydrological and meteorological applications. In this study, the soil moisture product from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite is used for improving satellite rainfall estimates obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission multisatellite precipitation analysis product (TMPA) using three different "bottom up" techniques: SM2RAIN, Soil Moisture Analysis Rainfall Tool, and Antecedent Precipitation Index Modification. The implementation of these techniques aims at improving the well-known "top down" rainfall estimate derived from TMPA products (version 7) available in near real time. Ground observations provided by the Australian Water Availability Project are considered as a separate validation data set. The three algorithms are calibrated against the gauge-corrected TMPA reanalysis product, 3B42, and used for adjusting the TMPA real-time product, 3B42RT, using SMOS soil moisture data. The study area covers the entire Australian continent, and the analysis period ranges from January 2010 to November 2013. Results show that all the SMOS-based rainfall products improve the performance of 3B42RT, even at daily time scale (differently from previous investigations). The major improvements are obtained in terms of estimation of accumulated rainfall with a reduction of the root-mean-square error of more than 25%. Also, in terms of temporal dynamic (correlation) and rainfall detection (categorical scores) the SMOS-based products provide slightly better results with respect to 3B42RT, even though the relative performance between the methods is not always the same. The strengths and weaknesses of each algorithm and the spatial variability of their performances are identified in order to indicate the ways forward for this promising research activity. Results show that the integration of bottom up and top down approaches has the potential to improve the quality of near-real-time rainfall estimates from remote sensing in the near future.

Predicting Intra-Urban Population Densities in Africa using SAR and Optical Remote Sensing Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linard, C.; Steele, J.; Forget, Y.; Lopez, J.; Shimoni, M.

2017-12-01

The population of Africa is predicted to double over the next 40 years, driving profound social, environmental and epidemiological changes within rapidly growing cities. Estimations of within-city variations in population density must be improved in order to take urban heterogeneities into account and better help urban research and decision making, especially for vulnerability and health assessments. Satellite remote sensing offers an effective solution for mapping settlements and monitoring urbanization at different spatial and temporal scales. In Africa, the urban landscape is covered by slums and small houses, where the heterogeneity is high and where the man-made materials are natural. Innovative methods that combine optical and SAR data are therefore necessary for improving settlement mapping and population density predictions. An automatic method was developed to estimate built-up densities using recent and archived optical and SAR data and a multi-temporal database of built-up densities was produced for 48 African cities. Geo-statistical methods were then used to study the relationships between census-derived population densities and satellite-derived built-up attributes. Best predictors were combined in a Random Forest framework in order to predict intra-urban variations in population density in any large African city. Models show significant improvement of our spatial understanding of urbanization and urban population distribution in Africa in comparison to the state of the art.

Satellite Estimates of Surface Short-wave Fluxes: Issues of Implementation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, H.; Pinker, Rachel; Minnis, Patrick

2006-01-01

Surface solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface is the primary forcing function of the land surface energy and water cycle. Therefore, there is a need for information on this parameter, preferably, at global scale. Satellite based estimates are now available at accuracies that meet the demands of many scientific objectives. Selection of an approach to estimate such fluxes requires consideration of trade-offs between the use of multi-spectral observations of cloud optical properties that are more difficult to implement at large scales, and methods that are simplified but easier to implement. In this study, an evaluation of such trade-offs will be performed. The University of Maryland Surface Radiation Model (UMD/SRB) has been used to reprocess five years of GOES-8 satellite observations over the United States to ensure updated calibration and improved cloud detection over snow. The UMD/SRB model was subsequently modified to allow input of information on aerosol and cloud optical depth with information from independent satellite sources. Specifically, the cloud properties from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Satellite Data Analysis Program (Minnis et al., 1995) are used to drive the modified version of the model to estimate surface short-wave fluxes over the Southern Great Plain ARM sites for a twelve month period. The auxiliary data needed as model inputs such as aerosol optical depth, spectral surface albedo, water vapor and total column ozone amount were kept the same for both versions of the model. The estimated shortwave fluxes are evaluated against ground observations at the ARM Central Facility and four satellite ARM sites. During summer, the estimated fluxes based on cloud properties derived from the multi-spectral approach were in better agreement with ground measurements than those derived from the UMD/SRB model. However, in winter, the fluxes derived with the UMD/SRB model were in better agreement with ground observations than those estimated from cloud properties provided by the ARM Satellite Data Analysis Program. During the transition periods, the results were comparable.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation with Emphasis on Aircraft Flight Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iliff, K. W.; Maine, R. E.

1985-01-01

Accurate modeling of flexible space structures is an important field that is currently under investigation. Parameter estimation, using methods such as maximum likelihood, is one of the ways that the model can be improved. The maximum likelihood estimator has been used to extract stability and control derivatives from flight data for many years. Most of the literature on aircraft estimation concentrates on new developments and applications, assuming familiarity with basic estimation concepts. Some of these basic concepts are presented. The maximum likelihood estimator and the aircraft equations of motion that the estimator uses are briefly discussed. The basic concepts of minimization and estimation are examined for a simple computed aircraft example. The cost functions that are to be minimized during estimation are defined and discussed. Graphic representations of the cost functions are given to help illustrate the minimization process. Finally, the basic concepts are generalized, and estimation from flight data is discussed. Specific examples of estimation of structural dynamics are included. Some of the major conclusions for the computed example are also developed for the analysis of flight data.

Improvement of Prediction Ability for Genomic Selection of Dairy Cattle by Including Dominance Effects

PubMed Central

Sun, Chuanyu; VanRaden, Paul M.; Cole, John B.; O'Connell, Jeffrey R.

2014-01-01

Dominance may be an important source of non-additive genetic variance for many traits of dairy cattle. However, nearly all prediction models for dairy cattle have included only additive effects because of the limited number of cows with both genotypes and phenotypes. The role of dominance in the Holstein and Jersey breeds was investigated for eight traits: milk, fat, and protein yields; productive life; daughter pregnancy rate; somatic cell score; fat percent and protein percent. Additive and dominance variance components were estimated and then used to estimate additive and dominance effects of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). The predictive abilities of three models with both additive and dominance effects and a model with additive effects only were assessed using ten-fold cross-validation. One procedure estimated dominance values, and another estimated dominance deviations; calculation of the dominance relationship matrix was different for the two methods. The third approach enlarged the dataset by including cows with genotype probabilities derived using genotyped ancestors. For yield traits, dominance variance accounted for 5 and 7% of total variance for Holsteins and Jerseys, respectively; using dominance deviations resulted in smaller dominance and larger additive variance estimates. For non-yield traits, dominance variances were very small for both breeds. For yield traits, including additive and dominance effects fit the data better than including only additive effects; average correlations between estimated genetic effects and phenotypes showed that prediction accuracy increased when both effects rather than just additive effects were included. No corresponding gains in prediction ability were found for non-yield traits. Including cows with derived genotype probabilities from genotyped ancestors did not improve prediction accuracy. The largest additive effects were located on chromosome 14 near DGAT1 for yield traits for both breeds; those SNPs also showed the largest dominance effects for fat yield (both breeds) as well as for Holstein milk yield. PMID:25084281

Vegetation species composition and canopy architecture information expressed in leaf water absorption measured in the 1000 nm and 2200 spectral region by an imaging spectrometer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, Robert O.; Roberts, Dar A.

1995-01-01

Plant species composition and plant architectural attributes are critical parameters required for the measuring, monitoring, and modeling of terrestrial ecosystems. Remote sensing is commonly cited as an important tool for deriving vegetation properties at an appropriate scale for ecosystem studies, ranging from local to regional and even synoptic scales. Classical approaches rely on vegetation indices such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to estimate biophysical parameters such as leaf area index or intercepted photosynthetically active radiation (IPAR). Another approach is to apply a variety of classification schemes to map vegetation and thus extrapolate fine-scale information about specific sites to larger areas of similar composition. Imaging spectrometry provides additional information that is not obtainable through broad-band sensors and that may provide improved inputs both to direct biophysical estimates as well as classification schemes. Some of this capability has been demonstrated through improved discrimination of vegetation, estimates of canopy biochemistry, and liquid water estimates from vegetation. We investigate further the potential of leaf water absorption estimated from Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data as a means for discriminating vegetation types and deriving canopy architectural information. We expand our analysis to incorporate liquid water estimates from two spectral regions, the 1000-nm region and the 2200-nm region. The study was conducted in the vicinity of Jasper Ridge, California, which is located on the San Francisco peninsula to the west of the Stanford University campus. AVIRIS data were acquired over Jasper Ridge, CA, on June 2, 1992, at 19:31 UTC. Spectra from three sites in this image were analyzed. These data are from an area of healthy grass, oak woodland, and redwood forest, respectively. For these analyses, the AVIRIS-measured upwelling radiance spectra for the entire Jasper Ridge scene were transformed to apparent surface reflectance using a radiative transfer code-based inversion algorithm.

Effects of time-shifted data on flight determined stability and control derivatives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steers, S. T.; Iliff, K. W.

1975-01-01

Flight data were shifted in time by various increments to assess the effects of time shifts on estimates of stability and control derivatives produced by a maximum likelihood estimation method. Derivatives could be extracted from flight data with the maximum likelihood estimation method even if there was a considerable time shift in the data. Time shifts degraded the estimates of the derivatives, but the degradation was in a consistent rather than a random pattern. Time shifts in the control variables caused the most degradation, and the lateral-directional rotary derivatives were affected the most by time shifts in any variable.

Wheat yield estimation at the farm level using TM Landsat and agrometeorological data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rudorff, B. F. T.; Batista, G. T.

1991-01-01

A model for estimating wheat yields on the farm level was developed, that integrates the Landsat TM data and agrometeorological information. Results obtained for a test site in southern Brasil for years of 1986 and 1987 show that the vegetation index derived from Landsat TM could account for the 60 to 40 percent wheat-yield variability observed between the two crop years. Compared to results using either the Landsat TM vegetation index or the agrometeorological data alone, the joint use of both types of data in a single model yielded a significant improvement.

Inter-Annual Variability of Burned Area in Brazil Based on a Synergistic use of Information Derived from MODIS and Landsat-TM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Libonati, R.; Dacamara, C. C.; Setzer, A. W.; Morelli, F.

2014-12-01

A procedure is presented that allows using information from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor to improve the quality of monthly burned area estimates over Brazil. The method integrates MODIS derived information from two sources; the NASA MCD64A1 Direct Broadcast Monthly Burned Area Product and INPE's Monthly Burned Area MODIS product (AQM-MODIS). The latter product relies on an algorithm that was specifically designed for ecosystems in Brazil, taking advantage of the ability of MIR reflectances to discriminate burned areas. Information from both MODIS products is incorporated by means of a linear regression model where an optimal estimate of the burned area is obtained as a linear combination of burned area estimates from MCD64A1 and AQM-MODIS. The linear regression model is calibrated using as optimal estimates values of burned area derived from Landsat TM during 2005 and 2006 over Jalapão, a region of Cerrado covering an area of 187 x 187 km2. Obtained values of coefficients for MCD64A1 and AQM-MODIS were 0.51 and 0.35, respectively and the root mean square error was 7.6 km2. Robustness of the model was checked by calibrating the model separately for 2005 and 2006 and cross-validating with 2006 and 2005; coefficients for 2005 (2006) were 0.46 (0.54) for MCD64A1 and 0.35 (0.35) for AQM-MODIS and the corresponding root mean square errors for 2006 (2005) were 7.8 (7.4) km2. The linear model was then applied to Brazil as well as to the six Brazilian main biomes, namely Cerrado, Amazônia, Caatinga, Pantanal, Mata Atlântica and Pampa. As to be expected the interannual variability based on the proposed synergistic use of MCD64A1, AQM-MODIS and Landsat Tm data for the period 2005-2010 presents marked differences with the corresponding amounts derived from MCD64A1 alone. For instance during the considered period, values (in 103 km2) from the proposed approach (from MCD64A1) are 399 (142), 232 (62), 559 (259), 274 (73), 219 (31) and 415 (251). Values obtained with the proposed approach may be viewed as an improved alternative to the currently available products over Brazil.

Improving statistical inference on pathogen densities estimated by quantitative molecular methods: malaria gametocytaemia as a case study.

PubMed

Walker, Martin; Basáñez, María-Gloria; Ouédraogo, André Lin; Hermsen, Cornelus; Bousema, Teun; Churcher, Thomas S

2015-01-16

Quantitative molecular methods (QMMs) such as quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (q-PCR), reverse-transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR) and quantitative nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (QT-NASBA) are increasingly used to estimate pathogen density in a variety of clinical and epidemiological contexts. These methods are often classified as semi-quantitative, yet estimates of reliability or sensitivity are seldom reported. Here, a statistical framework is developed for assessing the reliability (uncertainty) of pathogen densities estimated using QMMs and the associated diagnostic sensitivity. The method is illustrated with quantification of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytaemia by QT-NASBA. The reliability of pathogen (e.g. gametocyte) densities, and the accompanying diagnostic sensitivity, estimated by two contrasting statistical calibration techniques, are compared; a traditional method and a mixed model Bayesian approach. The latter accounts for statistical dependence of QMM assays run under identical laboratory protocols and permits structural modelling of experimental measurements, allowing precision to vary with pathogen density. Traditional calibration cannot account for inter-assay variability arising from imperfect QMMs and generates estimates of pathogen density that have poor reliability, are variable among assays and inaccurately reflect diagnostic sensitivity. The Bayesian mixed model approach assimilates information from replica QMM assays, improving reliability and inter-assay homogeneity, providing an accurate appraisal of quantitative and diagnostic performance. Bayesian mixed model statistical calibration supersedes traditional techniques in the context of QMM-derived estimates of pathogen density, offering the potential to improve substantially the depth and quality of clinical and epidemiological inference for a wide variety of pathogens.

Improving alpine-region spectral unmixing with optimal-fit snow endmembers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Painter, Thomas H.; Roberts, Dar A.; Green, Robert O.; Dozier, Jeff

1995-01-01

Surface albedo and snow-covered-area (SCA) are crucial inputs to the hydrologic and climatologic modeling of alpine and seasonally snow-covered areas. Because the spectral albedo and thermal regime of pure snow depend on grain size, areal distribution of snow grain size is required. Remote sensing has been shown to be an effective (and necessary) means of deriving maps of grain size distribution and snow-covered-area. Developed here is a technique whereby maps of grain size distribution improve estimates of SCA from spectral mixture analysis with AVIRIS data.

Quantifying mountain block recharge by means of catchment-scale storage-discharge relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajami, Hoori; Troch, Peter A.; Maddock, Thomas, III; Meixner, Thomas; Eastoe, Chris

2011-04-01

Despite the importance of mountainous catchments for providing freshwater resources, especially in semi-arid regions, little is known about key hydrological processes such as mountain block recharge (MBR). Here we implement a data-based method informed by isotopic data to quantify MBR rates using recession flow analysis. We applied our hybrid method in a semi-arid sky island catchment in southern Arizona, United States. Sabino Creek is a 91 km2 catchment with its sources near the summit of the Santa Catalina Mountains northeast of Tucson. Southern Arizona's climate has two distinct wet seasons separated by prolonged dry periods. Winter frontal storms (November-March) provide about 50% of annual precipitation, and summers are dominated by monsoon convective storms from July to September. Isotope analyses of springs and surface water in the Sabino Creek catchment indicate that streamflow during dry periods is derived from groundwater storage in fractured bedrock. Storage-discharge relationships are derived from recession flow analysis to estimate changes in storage during wet periods. To provide reliable estimates, several corrections and improvements to classic base flow recession analysis are considered. These corrections and improvements include adaptive time stepping, data binning, and the choice of storage-discharge functions. Our analysis shows that (1) incorporating adaptive time steps to correct for streamflow measurement errors improves the coefficient of determination, (2) the quantile method is best for streamflow data binning, (3) the choice of the regression model is critical when the stage-discharge function is used to predict changes in bedrock storage beyond the maximum observed flow in the catchment, and (4) the use of daily or night-time hourly streamflow does not affect the form of the storage-discharge relationship but will impact MBR estimates because of differences in the observed range of streamflow in each series.

Development of a data driven process-based model for remote sensing of terrestrial ecosystem productivity, evapotranspiration, and above-ground biomass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Masri, Bassil

2011-12-01

Modeling terrestrial ecosystem functions and structure has been a subject of increasing interest because of the importance of the terrestrial carbon cycle in global carbon budget and climate change. In this study, satellite data were used to estimate gross primary production (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET) for two deciduous forests: Morgan Monroe State forest (MMSF) in Indiana and Harvard forest in Massachusetts. Also, above-ground biomass (AGB) was estimated for the MMSF and the Howland forest (mixed forest) in Maine. Surface reflectance and temperature, vegetation indices, soil moisture, tree height and canopy area derived from the Moderate Resolution Imagining Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMRS-E), LIDAR, and aerial imagery respectively, were used for this purpose. These variables along with others derived from remotely sensed data were used as inputs variables to process-based models which estimated GPP and ET and to a regression model which estimated AGB. The process-based models were BIOME-BGC and the Penman-Monteith equation. Measured values for the carbon and water fluxes obtained from the Eddy covariance flux tower were compared to the modeled GPP and ET. The data driven methods produced good estimation of GPP and ET with an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.17 molC/m2 and 0.40 mm/day, respectively for the MMSF and the Harvard forest. In addition, allometric data for the MMSF were used to develop the regression model relating AGB with stem volume. The performance of the AGB regression model was compared to site measurements using remotely sensed data for the MMSF and the Howland forest where the model AGB RMSE ranged between 2.92--3.30 Kg C/m2. Sensitivity analysis revealed that improvement in maintenance respiration estimation and remotely sensed maximum photosynthetic activity as well as accurate estimate of canopy resistance will result in improved GPP and ET predictions. Moreover, AGB estimates were found to decrease as large grid size is used in rasterizing LIDAR return points. The analysis suggested that this methodology could be used as an operational procedure for monitoring changes in terrestrial ecosystem functions and structure brought by environmental changes.

A comparison of estimates of statewide pleasure trip volume and expenditures derived from telephone versus mail surveys

Treesearch

Dae-Kwan Kim; Daniel M. Spotts; Donald F. Holecek

1998-01-01

This paper compares estimates of pleasure trip volume and expenditures derived from a regional telephone survey to those derived from the TravelScope mail panel survey. Significantly different estimates emerged, suggesting that survey-based estimates of pleasure trip volume and expenditures, at least in the case of the two surveys examined, appear to be affected by...

A Novel Continuous Blood Pressure Estimation Approach Based on Data Mining Techniques.

PubMed

Miao, Fen; Fu, Nan; Zhang, Yuan-Ting; Ding, Xiao-Rong; Hong, Xi; He, Qingyun; Li, Ye

2017-11-01

Continuous blood pressure (BP) estimation using pulse transit time (PTT) is a promising method for unobtrusive BP measurement. However, the accuracy of this approach must be improved for it to be viable for a wide range of applications. This study proposes a novel continuous BP estimation approach that combines data mining techniques with a traditional mechanism-driven model. First, 14 features derived from simultaneous electrocardiogram and photoplethysmogram signals were extracted for beat-to-beat BP estimation. A genetic algorithm-based feature selection method was then used to select BP indicators for each subject. Multivariate linear regression and support vector regression were employed to develop the BP model. The accuracy and robustness of the proposed approach were validated for static, dynamic, and follow-up performance. Experimental results based on 73 subjects showed that the proposed approach exhibited excellent accuracy in static BP estimation, with a correlation coefficient and mean error of 0.852 and -0.001 ± 3.102 mmHg for systolic BP, and 0.790 and -0.004 ± 2.199 mmHg for diastolic BP. Similar performance was observed for dynamic BP estimation. The robustness results indicated that the estimation accuracy was lower by a certain degree one day after model construction but was relatively stable from one day to six months after construction. The proposed approach is superior to the state-of-the-art PTT-based model for an approximately 2-mmHg reduction in the standard derivation at different time intervals, thus providing potentially novel insights for cuffless BP estimation.

Shock and Vibration Control of a Golf-Swing Robot at Impacting the Ball

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoshino, Yohei; Kobayashi, Yukinori

A golf swing robot is a kind of fast motion manipulator with a flexible link. A robot manipulator is greatly affected by Corioli's and centrifugal forces during fast motion. Nonlinearity due to these forces can have an adverse effect on the performance of feedback control. In the same way, ordinary state observers of a linear system cannot accurately estimate the states of nonlinear systems. This paper uses a state observer that considers disturbances to improve the performance of state estimation and feedback control. A mathematical model of the golf robot is derived by Hamilton's principle. A linear quadratic regulator (LQR) that considers the vibration of the club shaft is used to stop the robot during the follow-through action. The state observer that considers disturbances estimates accurate state variables when the disturbances due to Corioli's and centrifugal forces, and impact forces work on the robot. As a result, the performance of the state feedback control is improved. The study compares the results of the numerical simulations with experimental results.

A TECHNIQUE FOR ASSESSING THE ACCURACY OF SUB-PIXEL IMPERVIOUS SURFACE ESTIMATES DERIVED FROM LANDSAT TM IMAGERY

EPA Science Inventory

We developed a technique for assessing the accuracy of sub-pixel derived estimates of impervious surface extracted from LANDSAT TM imagery. We utilized spatially coincident
sub-pixel derived impervious surface estimates, high-resolution planimetric GIS data, vector--to-
r...

Complex index of refraction estimation from degree of polarization with diffuse scattering consideration.

PubMed

Zhan, Hanyu; Voelz, David G; Cho, Sang-Yeon; Xiao, Xifeng

2015-11-20

The estimation of the refractive index from optical scattering off a target's surface is an important task for remote sensing applications. Optical polarimetry is an approach that shows promise for refractive index estimation. However, this estimation often relies on polarimetric models that are limited to specular targets involving single surface scattering. Here, an analytic model is developed for the degree of polarization (DOP) associated with reflection from a rough surface that includes the effect of diffuse scattering. A multiplicative factor is derived to account for the diffuse component and evaluation of the model indicates that diffuse scattering can significantly affect the DOP values. The scattering model is used in a new approach for refractive index estimation from a series of DOP values that involves jointly estimating n, k, and ρ(d)with a nonlinear equation solver. The approach is shown to work well with simulation data and additive noise. When applied to laboratory-measured DOP values, the approach produces significantly improved index estimation results relative to reference values.

Network Model-Assisted Inference from Respondent-Driven Sampling Data

PubMed Central

Gile, Krista J.; Handcock, Mark S.

2015-01-01

Summary Respondent-Driven Sampling is a widely-used method for sampling hard-to-reach human populations by link-tracing over their social networks. Inference from such data requires specialized techniques because the sampling process is both partially beyond the control of the researcher, and partially implicitly defined. Therefore, it is not generally possible to directly compute the sampling weights for traditional design-based inference, and likelihood inference requires modeling the complex sampling process. As an alternative, we introduce a model-assisted approach, resulting in a design-based estimator leveraging a working network model. We derive a new class of estimators for population means and a corresponding bootstrap standard error estimator. We demonstrate improved performance compared to existing estimators, including adjustment for an initial convenience sample. We also apply the method and an extension to the estimation of HIV prevalence in a high-risk population. PMID:26640328

Network Model-Assisted Inference from Respondent-Driven Sampling Data.

PubMed

Gile, Krista J; Handcock, Mark S

2015-06-01

Respondent-Driven Sampling is a widely-used method for sampling hard-to-reach human populations by link-tracing over their social networks. Inference from such data requires specialized techniques because the sampling process is both partially beyond the control of the researcher, and partially implicitly defined. Therefore, it is not generally possible to directly compute the sampling weights for traditional design-based inference, and likelihood inference requires modeling the complex sampling process. As an alternative, we introduce a model-assisted approach, resulting in a design-based estimator leveraging a working network model. We derive a new class of estimators for population means and a corresponding bootstrap standard error estimator. We demonstrate improved performance compared to existing estimators, including adjustment for an initial convenience sample. We also apply the method and an extension to the estimation of HIV prevalence in a high-risk population.

Developing Analogy Cost Estimates for Space Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shishko, Robert

2004-01-01

The analogy approach in cost estimation combines actual cost data from similar existing systems, activities, or items with adjustments for a new project's technical, physical or programmatic differences to derive a cost estimate for the new system. This method is normally used early in a project cycle when there is insufficient design/cost data to use as a basis for (or insufficient time to perform) a detailed engineering cost estimate. The major limitation of this method is that it relies on the judgment and experience of the analyst/estimator. The analyst must ensure that the best analogy or analogies have been selected, and that appropriate adjustments have been made. While analogy costing is common, there is a dearth of advice in the literature on the 'adjustment methodology', especially for hardware projects. This paper discusses some potential approaches that can improve rigor and repeatability in the analogy costing process.

A Methodology to Validate the InSAR Derived Displacement Field of the September 7th, 1999 Athens Earthquake Using Terrestrial Surveying. Improvement of the Assessed Deformation Field by Interferometric Stacking.

PubMed

Kotsis, Ioannis; Kontoes, Charalabos; Paradissis, Dimitrios; Karamitsos, Spyros; Elias, Panagiotis; Papoutsis, Ioannis

2008-06-10

The primary objective of this paper is the evaluation of the InSAR derived displacement field caused by the 07/09/1999 Athens earthquake, using as reference an external data source provided by terrestrial surveying along the Mornos river open aqueduct. To accomplish this, a processing chain to render comparable the leveling measurements and the interferometric derived measurements has been developed. The distinct steps proposed include a solution for reducing the orbital and atmospheric interferometric fringes and an innovative method to compute the actual InSAR estimated vertical ground subsidence, for direct comparison with the leveling data. Results indicate that the modeled deformation derived from a series of stacked interferograms, falls entirely within the confidence interval assessed for the terrestrial surveying data.

A Methodology to Validate the InSAR Derived Displacement Field of the September 7th, 1999 Athens Earthquake Using Terrestrial Surveying. Improvement of the Assessed Deformation Field by Interferometric Stacking

PubMed Central

Kotsis, Ioannis; Kontoes, Charalabos; Paradissis, Dimitrios; Karamitsos, Spyros; Elias, Panagiotis; Papoutsis, Ioannis

2008-01-01

The primary objective of this paper is the evaluation of the InSAR derived displacement field caused by the 07/09/1999 Athens earthquake, using as reference an external data source provided by terrestrial surveying along the Mornos river open aqueduct. To accomplish this, a processing chain to render comparable the leveling measurements and the interferometric derived measurements has been developed. The distinct steps proposed include a solution for reducing the orbital and atmospheric interferometric fringes and an innovative method to compute the actual InSAR estimated vertical ground subsidence, for direct comparison with the leveling data. Results indicate that the modeled deformation derived from a series of stacked interferograms, falls entirely within the confidence interval assessed for the terrestrial surveying data. PMID:27879926

Estimating the extent of impervious surfaces and turf grass across large regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Claggett, Peter; Irani, Frederick M.; Thompson, Renee L.

2013-01-01

The ability of researchers to accurately assess the extent of impervious and pervious developed surfaces, e.g., turf grass, using land-cover data derived from Landsat satellite imagery in the Chesapeake Bay watershed is limited due to the resolution of the data and systematic discrepancies between developed land-cover classes, surface mines, forests, and farmlands. Estimates of impervious surface and turf grass area in the Mid-Atlantic, United States that were based on 2006 Landsat-derived land-cover data were substantially lower than estimates based on more authoritative and independent sources. New estimates of impervious surfaces and turf grass area derived using land-cover data combined with ancillary information on roads, housing units, surface mines, and sampled estimates of road width and residential impervious area were up to 57 and 45% higher than estimates based strictly on land-cover data. These new estimates closely approximate estimates derived from authoritative and independent sources in developed counties.

Estimation of phenotypic variability in symbiotic nitrogen fixation ability of common bean under drought stress using 15N natural abundance in grain.

PubMed

Polania, Jose; Poschenrieder, Charlotte; Rao, Idupulapati; Beebe, Stephen

2016-09-01

Common bean ( Phaseolus vulgaris L.) is the most important food legume, cultivated by small farmers and is usually exposed to unfavorable conditions with minimum use of inputs. Drought and low soil fertility, especially phosphorus and nitrogen (N) deficiencies, are major limitations to bean yield in smallholder systems. Beans can derive part of their required N from the atmosphere through symbiotic nitrogen fixation (SNF). Drought stress severely limits SNF ability of plants. The main objectives of this study were to: (i) test and validate the use of 15 N natural abundance in grain to quantify phenotypic differences in SNF ability for its implementation in breeding programs of common bean with bush growth habit aiming to improve SNF, and (ii) quantify phenotypic differences in SNF under drought to identify superior genotypes that could serve as parents. Field studies were conducted at CIAT-Palmira, Colombia using a set of 36 bean genotypes belonging to the Middle American gene pool for evaluation in two seasons with two levels of water supply (irrigated and drought stress). We used 15 N natural abundance method to compare SNF ability estimated from shoot tissue sampled at mid-pod filling growth stage vs. grain tissue sampled at harvest. Our results showed positive and significant correlation between nitrogen derived from the atmosphere (%Ndfa) estimated using shoot tissue at mid-pod filling and %Ndfa estimated using grain tissue at harvest. Both methods showed phenotypic variability in SNF ability under both drought and irrigated conditions and a significant reduction in SNF ability was observed under drought stress. We suggest that the method of estimating Ndfa using grain tissue (Ndfa-G) could be applied in bean breeding programs to improve SNF ability. Using this method of Ndfa-G, we identified four bean lines (RCB 593, SEA 15, NCB 226 and BFS 29) that combine greater SNF ability with greater grain yield under drought stress and these could serve as potential parents to further improve SNF ability of common bean.

Improving spatio-temporal benefit transfers for pest control by generalist predators in cotton in the southwestern U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiederholt, Ruscena; Bagstad, Kenneth J.; McCracken, Gary F.; Diffendorfer, Jay E.; Loomis, John B.; Semmens, Darius J.; Russell, Amy L.; Sansone, Chris; LaSharr, Kelsie; Cryan, Paul; Reynoso, Claudia; Medellin, Rodrigo A.; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura

2017-01-01

Given rapid changes in agricultural practice, it is critical to understand how alterations in ecological, technological, and economic conditions over time and space impact ecosystem services in agroecosystems. Here, we present a benefit transfer approach to quantify cotton pest-control services provided by a generalist predator, the Mexican free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana), in the southwestern United States. We show that pest-control estimates derived using (1) a compound spatial–temporal model – which incorporates spatial and temporal variability in crop pest-control service values – are likely to exhibit less error than those derived using (2) a simple-spatial model (i.e., a model that extrapolates values derived for one area directly, without adjustment, to other areas) or (3) a simple-temporal model (i.e., a model that extrapolates data from a few points in time over longer time periods). Using our compound spatial–temporal approach, the annualized pest-control value was \\$12.2 million, in contrast to an estimate of \\$70.1 million (5.7 times greater), obtained from the simple-spatial approach. Using estimates from one year (simple-temporal approach) revealed large value differences (0.4 times smaller to 2 times greater). Finally, we present a detailed protocol for valuing pest-control services, which can be used to develop robust pest-control transfer functions for generalist predators in agroecosystems.

Statistics of Sxy estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Freilich, M. H.; Pawka, S. S.

1987-01-01

The statistics of Sxy estimates derived from orthogonal-component measurements are examined. Based on results of Goodman (1957), the probability density function (pdf) for Sxy(f) estimates is derived, and a closed-form solution for arbitrary moments of the distribution is obtained. Characteristic functions are used to derive the exact pdf of Sxy(tot). In practice, a simple Gaussian approximation is found to be highly accurate even for relatively few degrees of freedom. Implications for experiment design are discussed, and a maximum-likelihood estimator for a posterior estimation is outlined.

Improved prediction of hardwood tree biomass derived from wood density estimates and form factors for whole trees

Treesearch

David W. MacFarlane; Neil R. Ver Planck

2012-01-01

Data from hardwood trees in Michigan were analyzed to investigate how differences in whole-tree form and wood density between trees of different stem diameter relate to residual error in standard-type biomass equations. The results suggested that whole-tree wood density, measured at breast height, explained a significant proportion of residual error in standard-type...

Improving tree age estimates derived from increment cores: a case study of red pine

Treesearch

Shawn Fraver; John B. Bradford; Brian J. Palik

2011-01-01

Accurate tree ages are critical to a range of forestry and ecological studies. However, ring counts from increment cores, if not corrected for the years between the root collar and coring height, can produce sizeable age errors. The magnitude of errors is influenced by both the height at which the core is extracted and the growth rate. We destructively sampled saplings...

Model verification of large structural systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, L. T.; Hasselman, T. K.

1977-01-01

A methodology was formulated, and a general computer code implemented for processing sinusoidal vibration test data to simultaneously make adjustments to a prior mathematical model of a large structural system, and resolve measured response data to obtain a set of orthogonal modes representative of the test model. The derivation of estimator equations is shown along with example problems. A method for improving the prior analytic model is included.

Top-down Estimates of Biomass Burning Emissions of Black Carbon in the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Y.; Li, Q.; Randerson, J. T.; Liou, K.

2011-12-01

We apply a Bayesian linear inversion to derive top-down estimates of biomass burning emissions of black carbon (BC) in the western United States (WUS) for May-November 2006 by inverting surface BC concentrations from the IMPROVE network using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. Model simulations are conducted at both 2°×2.5° (globally) and 0.55°×0.66° (nested over North America) horizontal resolutions. We first improve the spatial distributions and seasonal and interannual variations of the BC emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFEDv2) using MODIS 8-day active fire counts from 2005-2007. The GFEDv2 emissions in N. America are adjusted for three zones: boreal N. America, temperate N. America, and Mexico plus Central America. The resulting emissions are then used as a priori for the inversion. The a posteriori emissions are 2-5 times higher than the a priori in California and the Rockies. Model surface BC concentrations using the a posteriori estimate provide better agreement with IMPROVE observations (~20% increase in the Taylor skill score), including improved ability to capture the observed variability especially during June-July. However, model surface BC concentrations are still biased low by ~30%. Comparisons with the Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) are included.

Top-down Estimates of Biomass Burning Emissions of Black Carbon in the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Y.; Li, Q.; Randerson, J. T.; CHEN, D.; Zhang, L.; Liou, K.

2012-12-01

We apply a Bayesian linear inversion to derive top-down estimates of biomass burning emissions of black carbon (BC) in the western United States (WUS) for May-November 2006 by inverting surface BC concentrations from the IMPROVE network using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. Model simulations are conducted at both 2°×2.5° (globally) and 0.5°×0.667° (nested over North America) horizontal resolutions. We first improve the spatial distributions and seasonal and interannual variations of the BC emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFEDv2) using MODIS 8-day active fire counts from 2005-2007. The GFEDv2 emissions in N. America are adjusted for three zones: boreal N. America, temperate N. America, and Mexico plus Central America. The resulting emissions are then used as a priori for the inversion. The a posteriori emissions are 2-5 times higher than the a priori in California and the Rockies. Model surface BC concentrations using the a posteriori estimate provide better agreement with IMPROVE observations (~50% increase in the Taylor skill score), including improved ability to capture the observed variability especially during June-September. However, model surface BC concentrations are still biased low by ~30%. Comparisons with the Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) are included.

Assimilation of Terrestrial Water Storage from GRACE in a Snow-Dominated Basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forman, Barton A.; Reichle, R. H.; Rodell, M.

2011-01-01

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) information derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) measurements is assimilated into a land surface model over the Mackenzie River basin located in northwest Canada. Assimilation is conducted using an ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS). Model estimates with and without assimilation are compared against independent observational data sets of snow water equivalent (SWE) and runoff. For SWE, modest improvements in mean difference (MD) and root mean squared difference (RMSD) are achieved as a result of the assimilation. No significant differences in temporal correlations of SWE resulted. Runoff statistics of MD remain relatively unchanged while RMSD statistics, in general, are improved in most of the sub-basins. Temporal correlations are degraded within the most upstream sub-basin, but are, in general, improved at the downstream locations, which are more representative of an integrated basin response. GRACE assimilation using an EnKS offers improvements in hydrologic state/flux estimation, though comparisons with observed runoff would be enhanced by the use of river routing and lake storage routines within the prognostic land surface model. Further, GRACE hydrology products would benefit from the inclusion of better constrained models of post-glacial rebound, which significantly affects GRACE estimates of interannual hydrologic variability in the Mackenzie River basin.

Flood extent and water level estimation from SAR using data-model integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajadi, O. A.; Meyer, F. J.

2017-12-01

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images have long been recognized as a valuable data source for flood mapping. Compared to other sources, SAR's weather and illumination independence and large area coverage at high spatial resolution supports reliable, frequent, and detailed observations of developing flood events. Accordingly, SAR has the potential to greatly aid in the near real-time monitoring of natural hazards, such as flood detection, if combined with automated image processing. This research works towards increasing the reliability and temporal sampling of SAR-derived flood hazard information by integrating information from multiple SAR sensors and SAR modalities (images and Interferometric SAR (InSAR) coherence) and by combining SAR-derived change detection information with hydrologic and hydraulic flood forecast models. First, the combination of multi-temporal SAR intensity images and coherence information for generating flood extent maps is introduced. The application of least-squares estimation integrates flood information from multiple SAR sensors, thus increasing the temporal sampling. SAR-based flood extent information will be combined with a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to reduce false alarms and to estimate water depth and flood volume. The SAR-based flood extent map is assimilated into the Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (Hec-RAS) model to aid in hydraulic model calibration. The developed technology is improving the accuracy of flood information by exploiting information from data and models. It also provides enhanced flood information to decision-makers supporting the response to flood extent and improving emergency relief efforts.

The Theory and Practice of Estimating the Accuracy of Dynamic Flight-Determined Coefficients

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maine, R. E.; Iliff, K. W.

1981-01-01

Means of assessing the accuracy of maximum likelihood parameter estimates obtained from dynamic flight data are discussed. The most commonly used analytical predictors of accuracy are derived and compared from both statistical and simplified geometrics standpoints. The accuracy predictions are evaluated with real and simulated data, with an emphasis on practical considerations, such as modeling error. Improved computations of the Cramer-Rao bound to correct large discrepancies due to colored noise and modeling error are presented. The corrected Cramer-Rao bound is shown to be the best available analytical predictor of accuracy, and several practical examples of the use of the Cramer-Rao bound are given. Engineering judgement, aided by such analytical tools, is the final arbiter of accuracy estimation.

Estimation of crown closure from AVIRIS data using regression analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Staenz, K.; Williams, D. J.; Truchon, M.; Fritz, R.

1993-01-01

Crown closure is one of the input parameters used for forest growth and yield modelling. Preliminary work by Staenz et al. indicates that imaging spectrometer data acquired with sensors such as the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) have some potential for estimating crown closure on a stand level. The objectives of this paper are: (1) to establish a relationship between AVIRIS data and the crown closure derived from aerial photography of a forested test site within the Interior Douglas Fir biogeoclimatic zone in British Columbia, Canada; (2) to investigate the impact of atmospheric effects and the forest background on the correlation between AVIRIS data and crown closure estimates; and (3) to improve this relationship using multiple regression analysis.

Combining nutation and surface gravity observations to estimate the Earth's core and inner core resonant frequencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziegler, Yann; Lambert, Sébastien; Rosat, Séverine; Nurul Huda, Ibnu; Bizouard, Christian

2017-04-01

Nutation time series derived from very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) and time varying surface gravity data recorded by superconducting gravimeters (SG) have long been used separately to assess the Earth's interior via the estimation of the free core and inner core resonance effects on nutation or tidal gravity. The results obtained from these two techniques have been shown recently to be consistent, making relevant the combination of VLBI and SG observables and the estimation of Earth's interior parameters in a single inversion. We present here the intermediate results of the ongoing project of combining nutation and surface gravity time series to improve estimates of the Earth's core and inner core resonant frequencies. We use VLBI nutation time series spanning 1984-2016 derived by the International VLBI Service for geodesy and astrometry (IVS) as the result of a combination of inputs from various IVS analysis centers, and surface gravity data from about 15 SG stations. We address here the resonance model used for describing the Earth's interior response to tidal excitation, the data preparation consisting of the error recalibration and amplitude fitting for nutation data, and processing of SG time-varying gravity to remove any gaps, spikes, steps and other disturbances, followed by the tidal analysis with the ETERNA 3.4 software package, the preliminary estimates of the resonant periods, and the correlations between parameters.

Estimating Dynamical Systems: Derivative Estimation Hints from Sir Ronald A. Fisher

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Deboeck, Pascal R.

2010-01-01

The fitting of dynamical systems to psychological data offers the promise of addressing new and innovative questions about how people change over time. One method of fitting dynamical systems is to estimate the derivatives of a time series and then examine the relationships between derivatives using a differential equation model. One common…

A new formula for estimation of standard liver volume using computed tomography-measured body thickness.

PubMed

Ma, Ka Wing; Chok, Kenneth S H; Chan, Albert C Y; Tam, Henry S C; Dai, Wing Chiu; Cheung, Tan To; Fung, James Y Y; Lo, Chung Mau

2017-09-01

The objective of this article is to derive a more accurate and easy-to-use formula for finding estimated standard liver volume (ESLV) using novel computed tomography (CT) measurement parameters. New formulas for ESLV have been emerging that aim to improve the accuracy of estimation. However, many of these formulas contain body surface area measurements and logarithms in the equations that lead to a more complicated calculation. In addition, substantial errors in ESLV using these old formulas have been shown. An improved version of the formula for ESLV is needed. This is a retrospective cohort of consecutive living donor liver transplantations from 2005 to 2016. Donors were randomly assigned to either the formula derivation or validation groups. Total liver volume (TLV) measured by CT was used as the reference for a linear regression analysis against various patient factors. The derived formula was compared with the existing formulas. There were 722 patients (197 from the derivation group, 164 from the validation group, and 361 from the recipient group) involved in the study. The donor's body weight (odds ratio [OR], 10.42; 95% confidence interval [CI], 7.25-13.60; P < 0.01) and body thickness (OR, 2.00; 95% CI, 0.36-3.65; P = 0.02) were found to be independent factors for the TLV calculation. A formula for TLV (cm 3 ) was derived: 2 × thickness (mm) + 10 × weight (kg) + 190 with R 2 0.48, which was the highest when compared with the 4 other most often cited formulas. This formula remained superior to other published formulas in the validation set analysis (R 2 , 5.37; interclass correlation coefficient, 0.74). Graft weight/ESLV values calculated by the new formula were shown to have the highest correlation with delayed graft function (C-statistic, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.69-0.90; P < 0.01). The new formula (2 × thickness + 10 × weight + 190) represents the first study proposing the use of CT-measured body thickness which is novel, easy to use, and the most accurate for ESLV. Liver Transplantation 23 1113-1122 2017 AASLD. © 2017 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

Particulate matter air quality assessment over southeast United States using satellite and ground measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Pawan

Fine particles (PM2.5, particles with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 mum) can penetrate deep inside the human lungs and recent scientific studies have shown thousands of deaths occur each year around the world, prematurely, due to a high concentration of particulate matter. Therefore, monitoring and forecasting of surface level fine particulate matter air quality is very important. Typically air quality measurements are made from ground stations. In recent years, linear regression relationships between satellite derived aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and surface measured PM2.5 mass concentration are formed and used to estimate PM2.5 in the areas where surface measurements are not available. This type of simple linear relationships varies with regions and seasons, and does not provide accurate enough estimation of surface level pollution and many studies have shown that AOT alone is not sufficient for PM2.5 mass concentration estimations. Furthermore, AOT represents aerosol loading in the entire column of the atmosphere whereas PM2.5 is measured at the surface; hence, the knowledge of vertical distribution of aerosols coupled with meteorology becomes critical in PM2.5 estimations. In this dissertation I used three years (2004-2006) of coincident hourly PM2.5, MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived AOT, and Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) analyzed meteorological fields to assess PM2.5 air quality in the Southeast United States. I explored the use of two-variate (TVM), multi-variate (MVM) and artificial neural network (ANN) methods for estimating PM2.5 over 85 stations in the region. First, satellite data were analyzed for sampling biases, quality, and impact of clouds. Results show that MODIS-Terra AOT data was available only about 50% of the days in any given month due to cloud over and unfavorable surface conditions, but this produced a sampling bias of less than 2 mugm-3. Results indicate that there is up to three fold improvements in the correlation coefficients (R) while using MVM (that includes meteorology) over different regions and seasons when compared to the TVM and further improvements were noticed when ANN method is applied. The improvement in absolute percentage error of estimation ranges from 5% to 50% over different seasons and regions when compared with TVM models. Overall ANN models performed better than TVM and MVM models. Based on these results, we recommend using meteorological variables along with satellite observations for improving particulate matter air quality assessment from satellite observations in the region.

Recent Surface Reflectance Measurement Campaigns with Emphasis on Best Practices, SI Traceability and Uncertainty Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Helder, Dennis; Thome, Kurtis John; Aaron, Dave; Leigh, Larry; Czapla-Myers, Jeff; Leisso, Nathan; Biggar, Stuart; Anderson, Nik

2012-01-01

A significant problem facing the optical satellite calibration community is limited knowledge of the uncertainties associated with fundamental measurements, such as surface reflectance, used to derive satellite radiometric calibration estimates. In addition, it is difficult to compare the capabilities of calibration teams around the globe, which leads to differences in the estimated calibration of optical satellite sensors. This paper reports on two recent field campaigns that were designed to isolate common uncertainties within and across calibration groups, particularly with respect to ground-based surface reflectance measurements. Initial results from these efforts suggest the uncertainties can be as low as 1.5% to 2.5%. In addition, methods for improving the cross-comparison of calibration teams are suggested that can potentially reduce the differences in the calibration estimates of optical satellite sensors.

OPTIMAL EXPERIMENT DESIGN FOR MAGNETIC RESONANCE FINGERPRINTING

PubMed Central

Zhao, Bo; Haldar, Justin P.; Setsompop, Kawin; Wald, Lawrence L.

2017-01-01

Magnetic resonance (MR) fingerprinting is an emerging quantitative MR imaging technique that simultaneously acquires multiple tissue parameters in an efficient experiment. In this work, we present an estimation-theoretic framework to evaluate and design MR fingerprinting experiments. More specifically, we derive the Cramér-Rao bound (CRB), a lower bound on the covariance of any unbiased estimator, to characterize parameter estimation for MR fingerprinting. We then formulate an optimal experiment design problem based on the CRB to choose a set of acquisition parameters (e.g., flip angles and/or repetition times) that maximizes the signal-to-noise ratio efficiency of the resulting experiment. The utility of the proposed approach is validated by numerical studies. Representative results demonstrate that the optimized experiments allow for substantial reduction in the length of an MR fingerprinting acquisition, and substantial improvement in parameter estimation performance. PMID:28268369

Optimal experiment design for magnetic resonance fingerprinting.

PubMed

Bo Zhao; Haldar, Justin P; Setsompop, Kawin; Wald, Lawrence L

2016-08-01

Magnetic resonance (MR) fingerprinting is an emerging quantitative MR imaging technique that simultaneously acquires multiple tissue parameters in an efficient experiment. In this work, we present an estimation-theoretic framework to evaluate and design MR fingerprinting experiments. More specifically, we derive the Cramér-Rao bound (CRB), a lower bound on the covariance of any unbiased estimator, to characterize parameter estimation for MR fingerprinting. We then formulate an optimal experiment design problem based on the CRB to choose a set of acquisition parameters (e.g., flip angles and/or repetition times) that maximizes the signal-to-noise ratio efficiency of the resulting experiment. The utility of the proposed approach is validated by numerical studies. Representative results demonstrate that the optimized experiments allow for substantial reduction in the length of an MR fingerprinting acquisition, and substantial improvement in parameter estimation performance.

Derivation of error sources for experimentally derived heliostat shapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cumpston, Jeff; Coventry, Joe

2017-06-01

Data gathered using photogrammetry that represents the surface and structure of a heliostat mirror panel is investigated in detail. A curve-fitting approach that allows the retrieval of four distinct mirror error components, while prioritizing the best fit possible to paraboloidal terms in the curve fitting equation, is presented. The angular errors associated with each of the four surfaces are calculated, and the relative magnitude for each of them is given. It is found that in this case, the mirror had a significant structural twist, and an estimate of the improvement to the mirror surface quality in the case of no twist was made.

An entropy and viscosity corrected potential method for rotor performance prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bridgeman, John O.; Strawn, Roger C.; Caradonna, Francis X.

1988-01-01

An unsteady Full-Potential Rotor code (FPR) has been enhanced with modifications directed at improving its drag prediction capability. The shock generated entropy has been included to provide solutions comparable to the Euler equations. A weakly interacted integral boundary layer has also been coupled to FPR in order to estimate skin-friction drag. Pressure distributions, shock positions, and drag comparisons are made with various data sets derived from two-dimensional airfoil, hovering, and advancing high speed rotor tests. In all these comparisons, the effect of the nonisentropic modification improves (i.e., weakens) the shock strength and wave drag. In addition, the boundary layer method yields reasonable estimates of skin-friction drag. Airfoil drag and hover torque data comparisons are excellent, as are predicted shock strength and positions for a high speed advancing rotor.

Employing lidar to detail vegetation canopy architecture for prediction of aeolian transport

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sankey, Joel B.; Law, Darin J.; Breshears, David D.; Munson, Seth M.; Webb, Robert H.

2013-01-01

The diverse and fundamental effects that aeolian processes have on the biosphere and geosphere are commonly generated by horizontal sediment transport at the land surface. However, predicting horizontal sediment transport depends on vegetation architecture, which is difficult to quantify in a rapid but accurate manner. We demonstrate an approach to measure vegetation canopy architecture at high resolution using lidar along a gradient of dryland sites ranging from 2% to 73% woody plant canopy cover. Lidar-derived canopy height, distance (gaps) between vegetation elements (e.g., trunks, limbs, leaves), and the distribution of gaps scaled by vegetation height were correlated with canopy cover and highlight potentially improved horizontal dust flux estimation than with cover alone. Employing lidar to estimate detailed vegetation canopy architecture offers promise for improved predictions of horizontal sediment transport across heterogeneous plant assemblages.

A general model to calculate the spin-lattice (T1) relaxation time of blood, accounting for haematocrit, oxygen saturation and magnetic field strength.

PubMed

Hales, Patrick W; Kirkham, Fenella J; Clark, Christopher A

2016-02-01

Many MRI techniques require prior knowledge of the T1-relaxation time of blood (T1bl). An assumed/fixed value is often used; however, T1bl is sensitive to magnetic field (B0), haematocrit (Hct), and oxygen saturation (Y). We aimed to combine data from previous in vitro measurements into a mathematical model, to estimate T1bl as a function of B0, Hct, and Y. The model was shown to predict T1bl from in vivo studies with a good accuracy (± 87 ms). This model allows for improved estimation of T1bl between 1.5-7.0 T while accounting for variations in Hct and Y, leading to improved accuracy of MRI-derived perfusion measurements. © The Author(s) 2015.

Empirical improvements for estimating earthquake response spectra with random‐vibration theory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boore, David; Thompson, Eric M.

2012-01-01

The stochastic method of ground‐motion simulation is often used in combination with the random‐vibration theory to directly compute ground‐motion intensity measures, thereby bypassing the more computationally intensive time‐domain simulations. Key to the application of random‐vibration theory to simulate response spectra is determining the duration (Drms) used in computing the root‐mean‐square oscillator response. Boore and Joyner (1984) originally proposed an equation for Drms , which was improved upon by Liu and Pezeshk (1999). Though these equations are both substantial improvements over using the duration of the ground‐motion excitation for Drms , we document systematic differences between the ground‐motion intensity measures derived from the random‐vibration and time‐domain methods for both of these Drms equations. These differences are generally less than 10% for most magnitudes, distances, and periods of engineering interest. Given the systematic nature of the differences, however, we feel that improved equations are warranted. We empirically derive new equations from time‐domain simulations for eastern and western North America seismological models. The new equations improve the random‐vibration simulations over a wide range of magnitudes, distances, and oscillator periods.

Using cumulative diet data and stable isotope analysis to determine trophic position of walleye Sander vitreus in a large, complex system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fincel, Mark J.; James, Daniel A.; Chipps, Steven R.; Davis, Blake A.

2014-01-01

Diet studies have traditionally been used to determine prey use and food web dynamics, while stable isotope analysis provides for a time-integrated approach to evaluate food web dynamics and characterize energy flow in aquatic systems. Direct comparison of the two techniques is rare and difficult to conduct in large, species rich systems. We compared changes in walleye Sander vitreus trophic position (TP) derived from paired diet content and stable isotope analysis. Individual diet-derived TP estimates were dissimilar to stable isotope-derived TP estimates. However, cumulative diet-derived TP estimates integrated from May 2001 to May 2002 corresponded to May 2002 isotope-derived estimates of TP. Average walleye TP estimates from the spring season appear representative of feeding throughout the entire previous year.

Estimating crop net primary production using inventory data and MODIS-derived parameters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bandaru, Varaprasad; West, Tristram O.; Ricciuto, Daniel M.

2013-06-03

National estimates of spatially-resolved cropland net primary production (NPP) are needed for diagnostic and prognostic modeling of carbon sources, sinks, and net carbon flux. Cropland NPP estimates that correspond with existing cropland cover maps are needed to drive biogeochemical models at the local scale and over national and continental extents. Existing satellite-based NPP products tend to underestimate NPP on croplands. A new Agricultural Inventory-based Light Use Efficiency (AgI-LUE) framework was developed to estimate individual crop biophysical parameters for use in estimating crop-specific NPP. The method is documented here and evaluated for corn and soybean crops in Iowa and Illinois inmore » years 2006 and 2007. The method includes a crop-specific enhanced vegetation index (EVI) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), shortwave radiation data estimated using Mountain Climate Simulator (MTCLIM) algorithm and crop-specific LUE per county. The combined aforementioned variables were used to generate spatially-resolved, crop-specific NPP that correspond to the Cropland Data Layer (CDL) land cover product. The modeling framework represented well the gradient of NPP across Iowa and Illinois, and also well represented the difference in NPP between years 2006 and 2007. Average corn and soybean NPP from AgI-LUE was 980 g C m-2 yr-1 and 420 g C m-2 yr-1, respectively. This was 2.4 and 1.1 times higher, respectively, for corn and soybean compared to the MOD17A3 NPP product. Estimated gross primary productivity (GPP) derived from AgI-LUE were in close agreement with eddy flux tower estimates. The combination of new inputs and improved datasets enabled the development of spatially explicit and reliable NPP estimates for individual crops over large regional extents.« less

Non-invasive genetic censusing and monitoring of primate populations.

PubMed

Arandjelovic, Mimi; Vigilant, Linda

2018-03-01

Knowing the density or abundance of primate populations is essential for their conservation management and contextualizing socio-demographic and behavioral observations. When direct counts of animals are not possible, genetic analysis of non-invasive samples collected from wildlife populations allows estimates of population size with higher accuracy and precision than is possible using indirect signs. Furthermore, in contrast to traditional indirect survey methods, prolonged or periodic genetic sampling across months or years enables inference of group membership, movement, dynamics, and some kin relationships. Data may also be used to estimate sex ratios, sex differences in dispersal distances, and detect gene flow among locations. Recent advances in capture-recapture models have further improved the precision of population estimates derived from non-invasive samples. Simulations using these methods have shown that the confidence interval of point estimates includes the true population size when assumptions of the models are met, and therefore this range of population size minima and maxima should be emphasized in population monitoring studies. Innovations such as the use of sniffer dogs or anti-poaching patrols for sample collection are important to ensure adequate sampling, and the expected development of efficient and cost-effective genotyping by sequencing methods for DNAs derived from non-invasive samples will automate and speed analyses. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Error Estimates of the Ares I Computed Turbulent Ascent Longitudinal Aerodynamic Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abdol-Hamid, Khaled S.; Ghaffari, Farhad

2012-01-01

Numerical predictions of the longitudinal aerodynamic characteristics for the Ares I class of vehicles, along with the associated error estimate derived from an iterative convergence grid refinement, are presented. Computational results are based on an unstructured grid, Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes analysis. The validity of the approach to compute the associated error estimates, derived from a base grid to an extrapolated infinite-size grid, was first demonstrated on a sub-scaled wind tunnel model at representative ascent flow conditions for which the experimental data existed. Such analysis at the transonic flow conditions revealed a maximum deviation of about 23% between the computed longitudinal aerodynamic coefficients with the base grid and the measured data across the entire roll angles. This maximum deviation from the wind tunnel data was associated with the computed normal force coefficient at the transonic flow condition and was reduced to approximately 16% based on the infinite-size grid. However, all the computed aerodynamic coefficients with the base grid at the supersonic flow conditions showed a maximum deviation of only about 8% with that level being improved to approximately 5% for the infinite-size grid. The results and the error estimates based on the established procedure are also presented for the flight flow conditions.

Geo-social media as a proxy for hydrometeorological data for streamflow estimation and to improve flood monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Restrepo-Estrada, Camilo; de Andrade, Sidgley Camargo; Abe, Narumi; Fava, Maria Clara; Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario; de Albuquerque, João Porto

2018-02-01

Floods are one of the most devastating types of worldwide disasters in terms of human, economic, and social losses. If authoritative data is scarce, or unavailable for some periods, other sources of information are required to improve streamflow estimation and early flood warnings. Georeferenced social media messages are increasingly being regarded as an alternative source of information for coping with flood risks. However, existing studies have mostly concentrated on the links between geo-social media activity and flooded areas. Thus, there is still a gap in research with regard to the use of social media as a proxy for rainfall-runoff estimations and flood forecasting. To address this, we propose using a transformation function that creates a proxy variable for rainfall by analysing geo-social media messages and rainfall measurements from authoritative sources, which are later incorporated within a hydrological model for streamflow estimation. We found that the combined use of official rainfall values with the social media proxy variable as input for the Probability Distributed Model (PDM), improved streamflow simulations for flood monitoring. The combination of authoritative sources and transformed geo-social media data during flood events achieved a 71% degree of accuracy and a 29% underestimation rate in a comparison made with real streamflow measurements. This is a significant improvement on the respective values of 39% and 58%, achieved when only authoritative data were used for the modelling. This result is clear evidence of the potential use of derived geo-social media data as a proxy for environmental variables for improving flood early-warning systems.

Prescribing joint co-ordinates during model preparation to improve inverse kinematic estimates of elbow joint angles.

PubMed

Wells, D J M; Alderson, J A; Dunne, J; Elliott, B C; Donnelly, C J

2017-01-25

To appropriately use inverse kinematic (IK) modelling for the assessment of human motion, a musculoskeletal model must be prepared 1) to match participant segment lengths (scaling) and 2) to align the model׳s virtual markers positions with known, experimentally derived kinematic marker positions (marker registration). The purpose of this study was to investigate whether prescribing joint co-ordinates during the marker registration process (within the modelling framework OpenSim) will improve IK derived elbow kinematics during an overhead sporting task. To test this, the upper limb kinematics of eight cricket bowlers were recorded during two testing sessions, with a different tester each session. The bowling trials were IK modelled twice: once with an upper limb musculoskeletal model prepared with prescribed participant specific co-ordinates during marker registration - MR PC - and once with the same model prepared without prescribed co-ordinates - MR; and by an established direct kinematic (DK) upper limb model. Whilst both skeletal model preparations had strong inter-tester repeatability (MR: Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM1D)=0% different; MR PC : SPM1D=0% different), when compared with DK model elbow FE waveform estimates, IK estimates using the MR PC model (RMSD=5.2±2.0°, SPM1D=68% different) were in closer agreement than the estimates from the MR model (RMSD=44.5±18.5°, SPM1D=100% different). Results show that prescribing participant specific joint co-ordinates during the marker registration phase of model preparation increases the accuracy and repeatability of IK solutions when modelling overhead sporting tasks in OpenSim. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improving Global Building Exposure Data for Disaster Forecasting, Mitigation, and Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, R. S.; Huyck, C.; Lewis, G.; Becker, M.; Vinay, S.; Tralli, D.; Eguchi, R.

2013-12-01

This paper describes an exploratory study being performed under the NASA Applied Sciences Program where the goal is to integrate Earth science data and information for disaster forecasting, mitigation and response. Specifically, we are delivering EO-derived built environment data and information for use in catastrophe (CAT) models and loss estimation tools. CAT models and loss estimation tools typically use GIS exposure databases to characterize the real-world environment. These datasets are often a source of great uncertainty in the loss estimates, particularly in international events, because the data are incomplete, and sometimes inaccurate and disparate in quality from one region to another. Preliminary research by project team members as part of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) consortium suggests that a strong relationship exists between the height and volume of built-up areas and NASA data products from the Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Applying this knowledge within the framework of the GEM Global Exposure Database (GED) is significantly enhancing our ability to quantify building exposure, particularly in developing countries and emerging insurance markets. Global insurance products that have a more comprehensive basis for assessing risk and exposure - as from EO-derived data and information assimilated into CAT models and loss estimation tools - will help a) help to transform the way in which we measure, monitor and assess the vulnerability of our communities globally, and in turn, b) help encourage the investments needed - especially in the developing world - stimulating economic growth and actions that would lead to a more disaster-resilient world. Improved building exposure data will also be valuable for near-real time applications such as emergency response planning and post-disaster damage and needs assessment.

Spring snow albedo feedback over northern Eurasia: Comparing in situ measurements with reanalysis products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wegmann, Martin; Dutra, Emanuel; Jacobi, Hans-Werner; Zolina, Olga

2018-06-01

This study uses daily observations and modern reanalyses in order to evaluate reanalysis products over northern Eurasia regarding the spring snow albedo feedback (SAF) during the period from 2000 to 2013. We used the state-of-the-art reanalyses from ERA-Interim/Land and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) as well as an experimental set-up of ERA-Interim/Land with prescribed short grass as land cover to enhance the comparability with the station data while underlining the caveats of comparing in situ observations with gridded data. Snow depth statistics derived from daily station data are well reproduced in all three reanalyses. However day-to-day albedo variability is notably higher at the stations than for any reanalysis product. The ERA-Interim grass set-up shows improved performance when representing albedo variability and generates comparable estimates for the snow albedo in spring. We find that modern reanalyses show a physically consistent representation of SAF, with realistic spatial patterns and area-averaged sensitivity estimates. However, station-based SAF values are significantly higher than in the reanalyses, which is mostly driven by the stronger contrast between snow and snow-free albedo. Switching to grass-only vegetation in ERA-Interim/Land increases the SAF values up to the level of station-based estimates. We found no significant trend in the examined 14-year time series of SAF, but interannual changes of about 0.5 % K-1 in both station-based and reanalysis estimates were derived. This interannual variability is primarily dominated by the variability in the snowmelt sensitivity, which is correctly captured in reanalysis products. Although modern reanalyses perform well for snow variables, efforts should be made to improve the representation of dynamic albedo changes.

Determination of longitudinal aerodynamic derivatives using flight data from an icing research aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ranaudo, R. J.; Batterson, J. G.; Reehorst, A. L.; Bond, T. H.; Omara, T. M.

1989-01-01

A flight test was performed with the NASA Lewis Research Center's DH-6 icing research aircraft. The purpose was to employ a flight test procedure and data analysis method, to determine the accuracy with which the effects of ice on aircraft stability and control could be measured. For simplicity, flight testing was restricted to the short period longitudinal mode. Two flights were flown in a clean (baseline) configuration, and two flights were flown with simulated horizontal tail ice. Forty-five repeat doublet maneuvers were performed in each of four test configurations, at a given trim speed, to determine the ensemble variation of the estimated stability and control derivatives. Additional maneuvers were also performed in each configuration, to determine the variation in the longitudinal derivative estimates over a wide range of trim speeds. Stability and control derivatives were estimated by a Modified Stepwise Regression (MSR) technique. A measure of the confidence in the derivative estimates was obtained by comparing the standard error for the ensemble of repeat maneuvers, to the average of the estimated standard errors predicted by the MSR program. A multiplicative relationship was determined between the ensemble standard error, and the averaged program standard errors. In addition, a 95 percent confidence interval analysis was performed for the elevator effectiveness estimates, C sub m sub delta e. This analysis identified the speed range where changes in C sub m sub delta e could be attributed to icing effects. The magnitude of icing effects on the derivative estimates were strongly dependent on flight speed and aircraft wing flap configuration. With wing flaps up, the estimated derivatives were degraded most at lower speeds corresponding to that configuration. With wing flaps extended to 10 degrees, the estimated derivatives were degraded most at the higher corresponding speeds. The effects of icing on the changes in longitudinal stability and control derivatives were adequately determined by the flight test procedure and the MSR analysis method discussed herein.

Heterogeneous terrain: a challenge to derive evapotranspiration with remote sensing and scintillometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiem, Christina; Sun, Liya; Müller, Benjamin; Bernhardt, Matthias; Schulz, Karsten

2014-05-01

Despite the importance of evapotranspiration for Meteorology, Hydrology and Agronomy, obtaining area-averaged evapotranspiration estimates is cost as well as maintenance intensive: usually area-averaged evapotranspiration estimates are obtained by distributed sensor networks or remotely sensed with a scintillometer. A low cost alternative for evapotranspiration estimates are satellite images, as many of them are freely available. This approach has been proven to be worthwhile above homogeneous terrain, and typically evapotranspiration data obtained with scintillometry are applied for validation. We will extend this approach to heterogeneous terrain: evapotranspiration estimates from ASTER 2013 images will be compared to scintillometer derived evapotranspiration estimates. The goodness of the correlation will be presented as well as an uncertainty estimation for both the ASTER derived and the scintillometer derived evapotranspiration.

An approach to unbiased subsample interpolation for motion tracking.

PubMed

McCormick, Matthew M; Varghese, Tomy

2013-04-01

Accurate subsample displacement estimation is necessary for ultrasound elastography because of the small deformations that occur and the subsequent application of a derivative operation on local displacements. Many of the commonly used subsample estimation techniques introduce significant bias errors. This article addresses a reduced bias approach to subsample displacement estimations that consists of a two-dimensional windowed-sinc interpolation with numerical optimization. It is shown that a Welch or Lanczos window with a Nelder-Mead simplex or regular-step gradient-descent optimization is well suited for this purpose. Little improvement results from a sinc window radius greater than four data samples. The strain signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) obtained in a uniformly elastic phantom is compared with other parabolic and cosine interpolation methods; it is found that the strain SNR ratio is improved over parabolic interpolation from 11.0 to 13.6 in the axial direction and 0.7 to 1.1 in the lateral direction for an applied 1% axial deformation. The improvement was most significant for small strains and displacement tracking in the lateral direction. This approach does not rely on special properties of the image or similarity function, which is demonstrated by its effectiveness with the application of a previously described regularization technique.

Improving estimates of water resources in a semi-arid region by assimilating GRACE data into the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tangdamrongsub, Natthachet; Steele-Dunne, Susan; Gunter, Brian; Ditmar, Pavel; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; Sun, Yu; Xia, Ting; Wang, Zhongjing

2016-04-01

An accurate estimate of water resources is critical for proper management of both agriculture and the local ecology, particularly in semi-arid regions where water is scarce. Imperfections in model physics, uncertainties in model land parameters and meteorological data, and the human impact on land changes often limit the accuracy of hydrological models in estimating water storages. To address this problem, this study investigated the assimilation of Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) estimates derived from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) data using an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) approach. The region considered was the Hexi Corridor of Northern China. The hydrological model used for the analysis was PCR-GLOBWB, driven by satellite-based forcing data from April 2002 to December 2010. The performance of the GRACE Data Assimilation (DA) scheme was evaluated in terms of its impact on the TWS as well as on the individual hydrological storage estimates. The capability of GRACE DA to adjust the storage level was apparent not only in the TWS but also in the groundwater component, which had annual amplitude, phase, and long-term trend estimates closer to the GRACE observations. This study also assessed the impact of considering correlated errors in GRACE-based estimates. These were derived based on the error propagation approach using the full error variance-covariance matrices provided as a part of the GRACE data product. The assessment was carried out by comparing the EnKF results after excluding (EnKF 1D) and including (EnKF 3D) error correlations with the in situ groundwater data from 5 well sites, and the in situ streamflow data from two river gauges. Both EnKF 1D and 3D improved groundwater and streamflow estimates compared to the results from the PCR-GLOBWB alone (Ensemble Open Loop, EnOL). Although EnKF 3D was inferior to 1D at some groundwater measurement locations, on average, it showed equal or greater improvement in all metrics. For example, the improvement in the correlation coefficient (average from 5 locations) was from 0.06 to 0.63 (1D) and to 0.70 (3D). The RMS difference reduced from 2.06 to 1.55 cm (1D) and 1.19 cm (3D). A modest improvement in the streamflow estimates was similar in 1D and 3D cases. In addition, results from the 9-year long GRACE DA study were used to assess the status of water resources over the Hexi Corridor. Areally-averaged values revealed that TWS, soil moisture, and groundwater storages over the region decreased with an average rate of approximately 0.3, 0.2, 0.1 cm/yr, respectively during the study period. A substantial decline in TWS (approximately -0.5 cm/yr) was seen over the Shiyang River Basin in particular, and the reduction mostly occurred in the groundwater layer. An investigation of the relationship between water resources and agriculture in the region was conducted. It showed that the groundwater consumption required to maintain the growing period in this specific basin was probably the cause of the groundwater depletion.

Improving evapotranspiration processes in distrubing hydrological models using Remote Sensing derived ET products.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abitew, T. A.; van Griensven, A.; Bauwens, W.

2015-12-01

Evapotranspiration is the main process in hydrology (on average around 60%), though has not received as much attention in the evaluation and calibration of hydrological models. In this study, Remote Sensing (RS) derived Evapotranspiration (ET) is used to improve the spatially distributed processes of ET of SWAT model application in the upper Mara basin (Kenya) and the Blue Nile basin (Ethiopia). The RS derived ET data is obtained from recently compiled global datasets (continuously monthly data at 1 km resolution from MOD16NBI,SSEBop,ALEXI,CMRSET models) and from regionally applied Energy Balance Models (for several cloud free days). The RS-RT data is used in different forms: Method 1) to evaluate spatially distributed evapotransiration model resultsMethod 2) to calibrate the evotranspiration processes in hydrological modelMethod 3) to bias-correct the evapotranpiration in hydrological model during simulation after changing the SWAT codesAn inter-comparison of the RS-ET products shows that at present there is a significant bias, but at the same time an agreement on the spatial variability of ET. The ensemble mean of different ET products seems the most realistic estimation and was further used in this study.The results show that:Method 1) the spatially mapped evapotranspiration of hydrological models shows clear differences when compared to RS derived evapotranspiration (low correlations). Especially evapotranspiration in forested areas is strongly underestimated compared to other land covers.Method 2) Calibration allows to improve the correlations between the RS and hydrological model results to some extent.Method 3) Bias-corrections are efficient in producing (sesonal or annual) evapotranspiration maps from hydrological models which are very similar to the patterns obtained from RS data.Though the bias-correction is very efficient, it is advised to improve the model results by better representing the ET processes by improved plant/crop computations, improved agricultural management practices or by providing improved meteorological data.

Comparison of several methods for estimating low speed stability derivatives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fletcher, H. S.

1971-01-01

Methods presented in five different publications have been used to estimate the low-speed stability derivatives of two unpowered airplane configurations. One configuration had unswept lifting surfaces, the other configuration was the D-558-II swept-wing research airplane. The results of the computations were compared with each other, with existing wind-tunnel data, and with flight-test data for the D-558-II configuration to assess the relative merits of the methods for estimating derivatives. The results of the study indicated that, in general, for low subsonic speeds, no one text appeared consistently better for estimating all derivatives.

Leveraging North Carolina's QL2 Lidar to Quantify Sensitivity of National Water Model Derived Flood Inundation Extent to DEM Resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovette, J. P.; Lenhardt, W. C.; Blanton, B.; Duncan, J. M.; Stillwell, L.

2017-12-01

The National Water Model (NWM) has provided a novel framework for near real time flood inundation mapping across CONUS at a 10m resolution. In many regions, this spatial scale is quickly being surpassed through the collection of high resolution lidar (1 - 3m). As one of the leading states in data collection for flood inundation mapping, North Carolina is currently improving their previously available 20 ft statewide elevation product to a Quality Level 2 (QL2) product with a nominal point spacing of 0.7 meters. This QL2 elevation product increases the ground points by roughly ten times over the previous statewide lidar product, and by over 250 times when compared to the 10m NED elevation grid. When combining these new lidar data with the discharge estimates from the NWM, we can further improve statewide flood inundation maps and predictions of at-risk areas. In the context of flood risk management, these improved predictions with higher resolution elevation models consistently represent an improvement on coarser products. Additionally, the QL2 lidar also includes coarse land cover classification data for each point return, opening the possibility for expanding analysis beyond the use of only digital elevation models (e.g. improving estimates of surface roughness, identifying anthropogenic features in floodplains, characterizing riparian zones, etc.). Using the NWM Height Above Nearest Drainage approach, we compare flood inundation extents derived from multiple lidar-derived grid resolutions to assess the tradeoff between precision and computational load in North Carolina's coastal river basins. The elevation data distributed through the state's new lidar collection program provide spatial resolutions ranging from 5-50 feet, with most inland areas also including a 3 ft product. Data storage increases by almost two orders of magnitude across this range, as does processing load. In order to further assess the validity of the higher resolution elevation products on flood inundation, we examine the NWM outputs from Hurricane Matthew, which devastated southeastern North Carolina in October 2016. When compared with numerous surveyed high water marks across the coastal plain, this assessment provides insight on the impacts of grid resolution on flood inundation extent.

Socioeconomic indicators of heat-related health risk supplemented with remotely sensed data

PubMed Central

Johnson, Daniel P; Wilson, Jeffrey S; Luber, George C

2009-01-01

Background Extreme heat events are the number one cause of weather-related fatalities in the United States. The current system of alert for extreme heat events does not take into account intra-urban spatial variation in risk. The purpose of this study is to evaluate a potential method to improve spatial delineation of risk from extreme heat events in urban environments by integrating sociodemographic risk factors with estimates of land surface temperature derived from thermal remote sensing data. Results Comparison of logistic regression models indicates that supplementing known sociodemographic risk factors with remote sensing estimates of land surface temperature improves the delineation of intra-urban variations in risk from extreme heat events. Conclusion Thermal remote sensing data can be utilized to improve understanding of intra-urban variations in risk from extreme heat. The refinement of current risk assessment systems could increase the likelihood of survival during extreme heat events and assist emergency personnel in the delivery of vital resources during such disasters. PMID:19835578

Experiments for improved positioning by means of integrated Doppler satellite observations and the NNSS broadcast ephemeris

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arur, M. G.

1977-01-01

An effort to improve station position recovery using broadcast ephemeris in Doppler data reduction was studied. A comparison of precise and broadcast ephemerides, treating the former as the standard, yielded information about the state disturbance that can be associated with the broadcast ephemeris. Statistical information about the state disturbance was used with current observational data for improved position recovery. The rank deficiency problem encountered in the short arc geodetic adjustment procedure was analysed and it was deduced that the fundamental rank deficiency is six, scale information being derivable from the wavelength of transmission. Coordinate differences between stations coobserving a pass are estimable. The uncertainty of the broadcast ephemeris, now in the WGS72 system, was assessed. It was conservatively estimated that its positional uncertainty may vary between 19 to 26 m in-track, 15 to 20 m cross-track and 9 to 10 m in radial directions depending on the incidence of the epoch of observations in the interinjection period.

Estimation of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR) in maize canopies using LiDAR data and hyperspectral imagery.

PubMed

Qin, Haiming; Wang, Cheng; Zhao, Kaiguang; Xi, Xiaohuan

2018-01-01

Accurate estimation of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR) for maize canopies are important for maize growth monitoring and yield estimation. The goal of this study is to explore the potential of using airborne LiDAR and hyperspectral data to better estimate maize fPAR. This study focuses on estimating maize fPAR from (1) height and coverage metrics derived from airborne LiDAR point cloud data; (2) vegetation indices derived from hyperspectral imagery; and (3) a combination of these metrics. Pearson correlation analyses were conducted to evaluate the relationships among LiDAR metrics, hyperspectral metrics, and field-measured fPAR values. Then, multiple linear regression (MLR) models were developed using these metrics. Results showed that (1) LiDAR height and coverage metrics provided good explanatory power (i.e., R2 = 0.81); (2) hyperspectral vegetation indices provided moderate interpretability (i.e., R2 = 0.50); and (3) the combination of LiDAR metrics and hyperspectral metrics improved the LiDAR model (i.e., R2 = 0.88). These results indicate that LiDAR model seems to offer a reliable method for estimating maize fPAR at a high spatial resolution and it can be used for farmland management. Combining LiDAR and hyperspectral metrics led to better performance of maize fPAR estimation than LiDAR or hyperspectral metrics alone, which means that maize fPAR retrieval can benefit from the complementary nature of LiDAR-detected canopy structure characteristics and hyperspectral-captured vegetation spectral information.

Geostatistical estimation of forest biomass in interior Alaska combining Landsat-derived tree cover, sampled airborne lidar and field observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babcock, Chad; Finley, Andrew O.; Andersen, Hans-Erik; Pattison, Robert; Cook, Bruce D.; Morton, Douglas C.; Alonzo, Michael; Nelson, Ross; Gregoire, Timothy; Ene, Liviu; Gobakken, Terje; Næsset, Erik

2018-06-01

The goal of this research was to develop and examine the performance of a geostatistical coregionalization modeling approach for combining field inventory measurements, strip samples of airborne lidar and Landsat-based remote sensing data products to predict aboveground biomass (AGB) in interior Alaska's Tanana Valley. The proposed modeling strategy facilitates pixel-level mapping of AGB density predictions across the entire spatial domain. Additionally, the coregionalization framework allows for statistically sound estimation of total AGB for arbitrary areal units within the study area---a key advance to support diverse management objectives in interior Alaska. This research focuses on appropriate characterization of prediction uncertainty in the form of posterior predictive coverage intervals and standard deviations. Using the framework detailed here, it is possible to quantify estimation uncertainty for any spatial extent, ranging from pixel-level predictions of AGB density to estimates of AGB stocks for the full domain. The lidar-informed coregionalization models consistently outperformed their counterpart lidar-free models in terms of point-level predictive performance and total AGB precision. Additionally, the inclusion of Landsat-derived forest cover as a covariate further improved estimation precision in regions with lower lidar sampling intensity. Our findings also demonstrate that model-based approaches that do not explicitly account for residual spatial dependence can grossly underestimate uncertainty, resulting in falsely precise estimates of AGB. On the other hand, in a geostatistical setting, residual spatial structure can be modeled within a Bayesian hierarchical framework to obtain statistically defensible assessments of uncertainty for AGB estimates.

Practical aspects of modeling aircraft dynamics from flight data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iliff, K. W.; Maine, R. E.

1984-01-01

The purpose of parameter estimation, a subset of system identification, is to estimate the coefficients (such as stability and control derivatives) of the aircraft differential equations of motion from sampled measured dynamic responses. In the past, the primary reason for estimating stability and control derivatives from flight tests was to make comparisons with wind tunnel estimates. As aircraft became more complex, and as flight envelopes were expanded to include flight regimes that were not well understood, new requirements for the derivative estimates evolved. For many years, the flight determined derivatives were used in simulations to aid in flight planning and in pilot training. The simulations were particularly important in research flight test programs in which an envelope expansion into new flight regimes was required. Parameter estimation techniques for estimating stability and control derivatives from flight data became more sophisticated to support the flight test programs. As knowledge of these new flight regimes increased, more complex aircraft were flown. Much of this increased complexity was in sophisticated flight control systems. The design and refinement of the control system required higher fidelity simulations than were previously required.

A Preliminary Examination of the Second Generation CMORPH Real-time Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joyce, R.; Xie, P.; Wu, S.

2017-12-01

The second generation CMORPH (CMORPH2) has started test real-time production of 30-minute precipitation estimates on a 0.05olat/lon grid over the entire globe, from pole-to-pole. The CMORPH2 is built upon the Kalman Filter based CMORPH algorithm of Joyce and Xie (2011). Inputs to the system include rainfall and snowfall rate retrievals from passive microwave (PMW) measurements aboard all available low earth orbit (LEO) satellites, precipitation estimates derived from infrared (IR) observations of geostationary (GEO) and LEO platforms, and precipitation simulations from the NCEP operational global forecast system (GFS). Inputs from the various sources are first inter-calibrated to ensure quantitative consistencies in representing precipitation events of different intensities through PDF calibration against a common reference standard. The inter-calibrated PMW retrievals and IR-based precipitation estimates are then propagated from their respective observation times to the target analysis time along the motion vectors of the precipitating clouds. Motion vectors are first derived separately from the satellite IR based precipitation estimates and the GFS precipitation fields. These individually derived motion vectors are then combined through a 2D-VAR technique to form an analyzed field of cloud motion vectors over the entire globe. The propagated PMW and IR based precipitation estimates are finally integrated into a single field of global precipitation through the Kalman Filter framework. A set of procedures have been established to examine the performance of the CMORPH2 real-time production. CMORPH2 satellite precipitation estimates are compared against the CPC daily gauge analysis, Stage IV radar precipitation over the CONUS, and numerical model forecasts to discover potential shortcomings and quantify improvements against the first generation CMORPH. Special attention has been focused on the CMORPH behavior over high-latitude areas beyond the coverage of the first generation CMORPH. Detailed results will be reported at the AGU.

Averaged Propulsive Body Acceleration (APBA) Can Be Calculated from Biologging Tags That Incorporate Gyroscopes and Accelerometers to Estimate Swimming Speed, Hydrodynamic Drag and Energy Expenditure for Steller Sea Lions

PubMed Central

Trites, Andrew W.; Rosen, David A. S.; Potvin, Jean

2016-01-01

Forces due to propulsion should approximate forces due to hydrodynamic drag for animals horizontally swimming at a constant speed with negligible buoyancy forces. Propulsive forces should also correlate with energy expenditures associated with locomotion—an important cost of foraging. As such, biologging tags containing accelerometers are being used to generate proxies for animal energy expenditures despite being unable to distinguish rotational movements from linear movements. However, recent miniaturizations of gyroscopes offer the possibility of resolving this shortcoming and obtaining better estimates of body accelerations of swimming animals. We derived accelerations using gyroscope data for swimming Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus), and determined how well the measured accelerations correlated with actual swimming speeds and with theoretical drag. We also compared dive averaged dynamic body acceleration estimates that incorporate gyroscope data, with the widely used Overall Dynamic Body Acceleration (ODBA) metric, which does not use gyroscope data. Four Steller sea lions equipped with biologging tags were trained to swim alongside a boat cruising at steady speeds in the range of 4 to 10 kph. At each speed, and for each dive, we computed a measure called Gyro-Informed Dynamic Acceleration (GIDA) using a method incorporating gyroscope data with accelerometer data. We derived a new metric—Averaged Propulsive Body Acceleration (APBA), which is the average gain in speed per flipper stroke divided by mean stroke cycle duration. Our results show that the gyro-based measure (APBA) is a better predictor of speed than ODBA. We also found that APBA can estimate average thrust production during a single stroke-glide cycle, and can be used to estimate energy expended during swimming. The gyroscope-derived methods we describe should be generally applicable in swimming animals where propulsive accelerations can be clearly identified in the signal—and they should also prove useful for dead-reckoning and improving estimates of energy expenditures from locomotion. PMID:27285467

A simulation model to estimate the cost and effectiveness of alternative dialysis initiation strategies.

PubMed

Lee, Chris P; Chertow, Glenn M; Zenios, Stefanos A

2006-01-01

Patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) require dialysis to maintain survival. The optimal timing of dialysis initiation in terms of cost-effectiveness has not been established. We developed a simulation model of individuals progressing towards ESRD and requiring dialysis. It can be used to analyze dialysis strategies and scenarios. It was embedded in an optimization frame worked to derive improved strategies. Actual (historical) and simulated survival curves and hospitalization rates were virtually indistinguishable. The model overestimated transplantation costs (10%) but it was related to confounding by Medicare coverage. To assess the model's robustness, we examined several dialysis strategies while input parameters were perturbed. Under all 38 scenarios, relative rankings remained unchanged. An improved policy for a hypothetical patient was derived using an optimization algorithm. The model produces reliable results and is robust. It enables the cost-effectiveness analysis of dialysis strategies.

Variational optical flow estimation based on stick tensor voting.

PubMed

Rashwan, Hatem A; Garcia, Miguel A; Puig, Domenec

2013-07-01

Variational optical flow techniques allow the estimation of flow fields from spatio-temporal derivatives. They are based on minimizing a functional that contains a data term and a regularization term. Recently, numerous approaches have been presented for improving the accuracy of the estimated flow fields. Among them, tensor voting has been shown to be particularly effective in the preservation of flow discontinuities. This paper presents an adaptation of the data term by using anisotropic stick tensor voting in order to gain robustness against noise and outliers with significantly lower computational cost than (full) tensor voting. In addition, an anisotropic complementary smoothness term depending on directional information estimated through stick tensor voting is utilized in order to preserve discontinuity capabilities of the estimated flow fields. Finally, a weighted non-local term that depends on both the estimated directional information and the occlusion state of pixels is integrated during the optimization process in order to denoise the final flow field. The proposed approach yields state-of-the-art results on the Middlebury benchmark.

Use of Quality Controlled AIRS Temperature Soundings to Improve Forecast Skill

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Reale, Oreste; Iredell, Lena

2010-01-01

AIRS was launched on EOS Aqua on May 4, 2002, together with AMSU-A and HSB, to form a next generation polar orbiting infrared and microwave atmospheric sounding system. The primary products of AIRS/AMSU-A are twice daily global fields of atmospheric temperature-humidity profiles, ozone profiles, sea/land surface skin temperature, and cloud related parameters including OLR. Also included are the clear column radiances used to derive these products which are representative of the radiances AIRS would have seen if there were no clouds in the field of view. All products also have error estimates. The sounding goals of AIRS are to produce 1 km tropospheric layer mean temperatures with an rms error of 1K, and layer precipitable water with an rms error of 20 percent, in cases with up to 90 percent effective cloud cover. The products are designed for data assimilation purposes for the improvement of numerical weather prediction, as well as for the study of climate and meteorological processes. With regard to data assimilation, one can use either the products themselves or the clear column radiances from which the products were derived. The AIRS Version 5 retrieval algorithm is now being used operationally at the Goddard DISC in the routine generation of geophysical parameters derived from AIRS/AMSU data. A major innovation in Version 5 is the ability to generate case-by-case level-by-level error estimates for retrieved quantities and clear column radiances, and the use of these error estimates for Quality Control. The temperature profile error estimates are used to determine a case-by-case characteristic pressure pbest, down to which the profile is considered acceptable for data assimilation purposes. The characteristic pressure p(sub best) is determined by comparing the case dependent error estimate (delta)T(p) to the threshold values (Delta)T(p). The AIRS Version 5 data set provides error estimates of T(p) at all levels, and also profile dependent values of pbest based on use of a Standard profile dependent threshold (Delta)T(p). These Standard thresholds were designed as a compromise between optimal use for data assimilation purposes, which requires highest accuracy (tighter Quality Control), and climate purposes, which requires more spatial coverage (looser Quality Control). Subsequent research using Version 5 sounding and error estimates showed that tighter Quality Control performs better for data assimilation proposes, while looser Quality Control better spatial coverage) performs better for climate purposes. We conducted a number of data assimilation experiments using the NASA GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System as a step toward finding an optimum balance of spatial coverage and sounding accuracy with regard to improving forecast skill. The model was run at a horizontal resolution of 0.5 degree latitude x 0.67 degree longitude with 72 vertical levels. These experiments were run during four different seasons, each using a different year. The AIRS temperature profiles were presented to the GEOS-5 analysis as rawinsonde profiles, and the profile error estimates (delta)T(p) were used as the uncertainty for each measurement in the data assimilation process.

Comparison of accelerometer data calibration methods used in thermospheric neutral density estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vielberg, Kristin; Forootan, Ehsan; Lück, Christina; Löcher, Anno; Kusche, Jürgen; Börger, Klaus

2018-05-01

Ultra-sensitive space-borne accelerometers on board of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites are used to measure non-gravitational forces acting on the surface of these satellites. These forces consist of the Earth radiation pressure, the solar radiation pressure and the atmospheric drag, where the first two are caused by the radiation emitted from the Earth and the Sun, respectively, and the latter is related to the thermospheric density. On-board accelerometer measurements contain systematic errors, which need to be mitigated by applying a calibration before their use in gravity recovery or thermospheric neutral density estimations. Therefore, we improve, apply and compare three calibration procedures: (1) a multi-step numerical estimation approach, which is based on the numerical differentiation of the kinematic orbits of LEO satellites; (2) a calibration of accelerometer observations within the dynamic precise orbit determination procedure and (3) a comparison of observed to modeled forces acting on the surface of LEO satellites. Here, accelerometer measurements obtained by the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) are used. Time series of bias and scale factor derived from the three calibration procedures are found to be different in timescales of a few days to months. Results are more similar (statistically significant) when considering longer timescales, from which the results of approach (1) and (2) show better agreement to those of approach (3) during medium and high solar activity. Calibrated accelerometer observations are then applied to estimate thermospheric neutral densities. Differences between accelerometer-based density estimations and those from empirical neutral density models, e.g., NRLMSISE-00, are observed to be significant during quiet periods, on average 22 % of the simulated densities (during low solar activity), and up to 28 % during high solar activity. Therefore, daily corrections are estimated for neutral densities derived from NRLMSISE-00. Our results indicate that these corrections improve model-based density simulations in order to provide density estimates at locations outside the vicinity of the GRACE satellites, in particular during the period of high solar/magnetic activity, e.g., during the St. Patrick's Day storm on 17 March 2015.

Stratospheric CH4 and CO2 profiles derived from SCIAMACHY solar occultation measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noël, S.; Bramstedt, K.; Hilker, M.; Liebing, P.; Plieninger, J.; Reuter, M.; Rozanov, A.; Bovensmann, H.; Burrows, J. P.

2015-11-01

Stratospheric profiles of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) have been derived from solar occultation measurements of the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY). The retrieval is performed using a method called "Onion Peeling DOAS" (ONPD) which combines an onion peeling approach with a weighting function DOAS (Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy) fit. By use of updated pointing information and optimisation of the data selection and of the retrieval approach the altitude range for reasonable CH4 could be extended to about 17 to 45 km. Furthermore, the quality of the derived CO2 has been assessed such that now the first stratospheric profiles of CO2 from SCIAMACHY are available. Comparisons with independent data sets yield an estimated accuracy of the new SCIAMACHY stratospheric profiles of about 5-10 % for CH4 and 2-3 % for CO2. The accuracy of the products is currently mainly restricted by the appearance of unexpected vertical oscillations in the derived profiles which need further investigation. Using the improved ONPD retrieval, CH4 and CO2 stratospheric data sets covering the whole SCIAMACHY time series (August 2002-April 2012) and the latitudinal range between about 50 and 70° N have been derived. Based on these time series, CH4 and CO2 trends have been estimated, which are in reasonable agreement with total column trends for these gases. This shows that the new SCIAMACHY data sets can provide valuable information about the stratosphere.

Polarization impacts on the water-leaving radiance retrieval from above-water radiometric measurements.

PubMed

Harmel, Tristan; Gilerson, Alexander; Tonizzo, Alberto; Chowdhary, Jacek; Weidemann, Alan; Arnone, Robert; Ahmed, Sam

2012-12-10

Above-water measurements of water-leaving radiance are widely used for water-quality monitoring and ocean-color satellite data validation. Reflected skylight in above-water radiometry needs to be accurately estimated prior to derivation of water-leaving radiance. Up-to-date methods to estimate reflection of diffuse skylight on rough sea surfaces are based on radiative transfer simulations and sky radiance measurements. But these methods neglect the polarization state of the incident skylight, which is generally highly polarized. In this paper, the effects of polarization on the sea surface reflectance and the subsequent water-leaving radiance estimation are investigated. We show that knowledge of the polarization field of the diffuse skylight significantly improves above-water radiometry estimates, in particular in the blue part of the spectrum where the reflected skylight is dominant. A newly developed algorithm based on radiative transfer simulations including polarization is described. Its application to the standard Aerosol Robotic Network-Ocean Color and hyperspectral radiometric measurements of the 1.5-year dataset acquired at the Long Island Sound site demonstrates the noticeable importance of considering polarization for water-leaving radiance estimation. In particular it is shown, based on time series of collocated data acquired in coastal waters, that the azimuth range of measurements leading to good-quality data is significantly increased, and that these estimates are improved by more than 12% at 413 nm. Full consideration of polarization effects is expected to significantly improve the quality of the field data utilized for satellite data validation or potential vicarious calibration purposes.

Improved method for retinotopy constrained source estimation of visual evoked responses

PubMed Central

Hagler, Donald J.; Dale, Anders M.

2011-01-01

Retinotopy constrained source estimation (RCSE) is a method for non-invasively measuring the time courses of activation in early visual areas using magnetoencephalography (MEG) or electroencephalography (EEG). Unlike conventional equivalent current dipole or distributed source models, the use of multiple, retinotopically-mapped stimulus locations to simultaneously constrain the solutions allows for the estimation of independent waveforms for visual areas V1, V2, and V3, despite their close proximity to each other. We describe modifications that improve the reliability and efficiency of this method. First, we find that increasing the number and size of visual stimuli results in source estimates that are less susceptible to noise. Second, to create a more accurate forward solution, we have explicitly modeled the cortical point spread of individual visual stimuli. Dipoles are represented as extended patches on the cortical surface, which take into account the estimated receptive field size at each location in V1, V2, and V3 as well as the contributions from contralateral, ipsilateral, dorsal, and ventral portions of the visual areas. Third, we implemented a map fitting procedure to deform a template to match individual subject retinotopic maps derived from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). This improves the efficiency of the overall method by allowing automated dipole selection, and it makes the results less sensitive to physiological noise in fMRI retinotopy data. Finally, the iteratively reweighted least squares (IRLS) method was used to reduce the contribution from stimulus locations with high residual error for robust estimation of visual evoked responses. PMID:22102418

The importance of incorporating functional habitats into conservation planning for highly mobile species in dynamic systems.

PubMed

Webb, Matthew H; Terauds, Aleks; Tulloch, Ayesha; Bell, Phil; Stojanovic, Dejan; Heinsohn, Robert

2017-10-01

The distribution of mobile species in dynamic systems can vary greatly over time and space. Estimating their population size and geographic range can be problematic and affect the accuracy of conservation assessments. Scarce data on mobile species and the resources they need can also limit the type of analytical approaches available to derive such estimates. We quantified change in availability and use of key ecological resources required for breeding for a critically endangered nomadic habitat specialist, the Swift Parrot (Lathamus discolor). We compared estimates of occupied habitat derived from dynamic presence-background (i.e., presence-only data) climatic models with estimates derived from dynamic occupancy models that included a direct measure of food availability. We then compared estimates that incorporate fine-resolution spatial data on the availability of key ecological resources (i.e., functional habitats) with more common approaches that focus on broader climatic suitability or vegetation cover (due to the absence of fine-resolution data). The occupancy models produced significantly (P < 0.001) smaller (up to an order of magnitude) and more spatially discrete estimates of the total occupied area than climate-based models. The spatial location and extent of the total area occupied with the occupancy models was highly variable between years (131 and 1498 km 2 ). Estimates accounting for the area of functional habitats were significantly smaller (2-58% [SD 16]) than estimates based only on the total area occupied. An increase or decrease in the area of one functional habitat (foraging or nesting) did not necessarily correspond to an increase or decrease in the other. Thus, an increase in the extent of occupied area may not equate to improved habitat quality or function. We argue these patterns are typical for mobile resource specialists but often go unnoticed because of limited data over relevant spatial and temporal scales and lack of spatial data on the availability of key resources. Understanding changes in the relative availability of functional habitats is crucial to informing conservation planning and accurately assessing extinction risk for mobile resource specialists. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

The economic impact of improving phosphate binder therapy adherence and attainment of guideline phosphorus goals in hemodialysis patients: a Medicare cost-offset model.

PubMed

Ramakrishnan, Karthik; Braunhofer, Peter; Newsome, Britt; Lubeck, Deborah; Wang, Steven; Deuson, Jennifer; Claxton, Ami J

2014-12-01

Hyperphosphatemia (serum phosphorus >5.5 mg/dL) in hemodialysis patients is a key factor in mineral and bone disorders and is associated with increased hospitalization and mortality risks. Treatment with oral phosphate binders offers limited benefit in achieving target serum phosphorus concentrations due to high daily pill burden (7-10 pills/day) and associated poor medication adherence. The economic value of improving phosphate binder adherence and increasing percent time in range (PTR) for target phosphorus concentrations has not been previously assessed in dialysis patients. The current retrospective analysis was conducted to summarize health care cost savings to United States (US) payers associated with improved phosphate binder adherence and increased PTR for target phosphorus concentrations in adult end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients receiving hemodialysis therapy. Phosphate binder adherence and PTR were derived from hemodialysis patients who were treated at a large dialysis organization between January 2007 and December 2011. Cost model inputs were derived from US Renal Data System data between July 2007 and December 2009. A cost-offset model was constructed to estimate monthly and annual incremental health care costs (total Medicare; inpatient, outpatient, and Medicare Part B) associated with different levels of phosphate binder adherence and PTR. Model inputs included number of ESRD patients, population adherence to phosphate binders, PTR associated with adherence to phosphate binders, and per-patient per-month cost associated with PTR. A base case model estimated monthly and annual costs of phosphate binder therapy in the population using estimated model inputs. The estimated adherence rate was used to determine number of patients in compliant and noncompliant groups. Monthly costs were calculated as the sum of per-patient per-month cost times the number of patients in adherent and nonadherent groups. Annual costs were monthly costs times 12 and assumed the same level of adherence, PTR, and per-patient per-month costs over time. To study the impact of improving phosphate binder adherence and PTR on cost outcomes, we hypothetically and simultaneously increased both base phosphate binders adherence and PTR for adherent patients (adherence/PTR: 10/20%, 20/40%, 30/60%). Monthly and annual costs were derived for each scenario and compared against the results of the base case model. One-way sensitivity analysis was performed to test model robustness. The base case model estimated total Medicare and inpatient costs of $5,152,342 and $1,435,644, respectively (N = 1,000). When base case model costs were compared to results of each extended model scenario, overall Medicare cost savings (range 0.3-1.9%) and inpatient cost savings (range 1.2-5.7%) were observed. The one-way sensitivity analysis indicated that results were sensitive to PTR for adherent and nonadherent patients and the factor used to increase adherence rate and PTR associated with adherence in the hypothetical scenarios. However, cost savings in overall Medicare costs and inpatient costs were still noted. Increasing phosphate binder adherence and improving phosphorus control were associated with increased cost savings in total Medicare costs and inpatient costs.

Incorporating GIS and remote sensing for census population disaggregation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Shuo-Sheng'derek'

Census data are the primary source of demographic data for a variety of researches and applications. For confidentiality issues and administrative purposes, census data are usually released to the public by aggregated areal units. In the United States, the smallest census unit is census blocks. Due to data aggregation, users of census data may have problems in visualizing population distribution within census blocks and estimating population counts for areas not coinciding with census block boundaries. The main purpose of this study is to develop methodology for estimating sub-block areal populations and assessing the estimation errors. The City of Austin, Texas was used as a case study area. Based on tax parcel boundaries and parcel attributes derived from ancillary GIS and remote sensing data, detailed urban land use classes were first classified using a per-field approach. After that, statistical models by land use classes were built to infer population density from other predictor variables, including four census demographic statistics (the Hispanic percentage, the married percentage, the unemployment rate, and per capita income) and three physical variables derived from remote sensing images and building footprints vector data (a landscape heterogeneity statistics, a building pattern statistics, and a building volume statistics). In addition to statistical models, deterministic models were proposed to directly infer populations from building volumes and three housing statistics, including the average space per housing unit, the housing unit occupancy rate, and the average household size. After population models were derived or proposed, how well the models predict populations for another set of sample blocks was assessed. The results show that deterministic models were more accurate than statistical models. Further, by simulating the base unit for modeling from aggregating blocks, I assessed how well the deterministic models estimate sub-unit-level populations. I also assessed the aggregation effects and the resealing effects on sub-unit estimates. Lastly, from another set of mixed-land-use sample blocks, a mixed-land-use model was derived and compared with a residential-land-use model. The results of per-field land use classification are satisfactory with a Kappa accuracy statistics of 0.747. Model Assessments by land use show that population estimates for multi-family land use areas have higher errors than those for single-family land use areas, and population estimates for mixed land use areas have higher errors than those for residential land use areas. The assessments of sub-unit estimates using a simulation approach indicate that smaller areas show higher estimation errors, estimation errors do not relate to the base unit size, and resealing improves all levels of sub-unit estimates.

Assessing and Refining Myocardial Infarction Risk Estimation among Patients with Human Immunodeficiency Virus

PubMed Central

Feinstein, Matthew J.; Nance, Robin M.; Drozd, Daniel R.; Ning, Hongyan; Delaney, Joseph A.; Heckbert, Susan R.; Budoff, Matthew J.; Mathews, William C.; Kitahata, Mari M.; Saag, Michael S.; Eron, Joseph J.; Moore, Richard D.; Achenbach, Chad J.; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M.; Crane, Heidi M.

2017-01-01

Importance Persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treated with antiretroviral therapy (ART) have improved longevity but are at elevated risk for myocardial infarction (MI) due to common MI risk factors and HIV-specific factors. Despite these elevated MI rates, optimal methods to predict MI risks for HIV-infected persons remain unclear. Objective To determine the extent to which existing and de novo estimation tools predict MI in a multi-center HIV cohort with rigorous MI adjudication. Design We evaluated the performance of standard-of-care and two new data-derived MI risk estimation models in the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) multi-center prospective clinical cohort. The new risk estimation models were validated in a cohort separate from the derivation cohort. Setting Clinical sites across the U.S. where HIV-infected adults receive medical care in inpatient and outpatient settings. Participants HIV-infected adults receiving care anytime since 1995 at 5 CNICS sites where MIs were adjudicated (N=19829). Exposures Common cardiovascular risk factors, HIV viral load, CD4 count, and medication use were used to calculate predicted event rates. Main Outcome and Measures Observed MI rates over the course of follow-up, scaled to 10 years using an observed prime approach to account for dropout and loss to follow-up prior to 10 years. Results MI rates were higher among blacks, older participants, and participants who were not virally suppressed. The 2013 Pooled Cohort Equations (PCEs), which predict composite rates of MI and stroke, adequately discriminated MI risk (Harrell’s C Statistic = 0.75). Two data-derived models incorporating HIV-specific covariates exhibited weak calibration in a validation sample and did not discriminate risk any better (Harrell’s C Statistic = 0.72 and 0.73) than the PCEs. The PCEs were moderately calibrated in CNICS but predicted consistently lower than observed prime rates of MI. The PCEs Conclusions and relevance The PCEs discriminated MI risk and were moderately calibrated in this multi-center HIV cohort. Adding HIV-specific factors did not improve model performance. As HIV-infected cohorts capture and assess outcomes of MI and stroke, the performance of risk estimation tools should be revisited. PMID:28002550

Optimal Tuner Selection for Kalman Filter-Based Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Donald L.; Garg, Sanjay

2010-01-01

A linear point design methodology for minimizing the error in on-line Kalman filter-based aircraft engine performance estimation applications is presented. This technique specifically addresses the underdetermined estimation problem, where there are more unknown parameters than available sensor measurements. A systematic approach is applied to produce a model tuning parameter vector of appropriate dimension to enable estimation by a Kalman filter, while minimizing the estimation error in the parameters of interest. Tuning parameter selection is performed using a multi-variable iterative search routine which seeks to minimize the theoretical mean-squared estimation error. This paper derives theoretical Kalman filter estimation error bias and variance values at steady-state operating conditions, and presents the tuner selection routine applied to minimize these values. Results from the application of the technique to an aircraft engine simulation are presented and compared to the conventional approach of tuner selection. Experimental simulation results are found to be in agreement with theoretical predictions. The new methodology is shown to yield a significant improvement in on-line engine performance estimation accuracy

Photosynthesis, Earth System Models and the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, A.; Sloan, V. L.; Xu, C.; Wullschleger, S. D.

2013-12-01

The primary goal of Earth System Models (ESMs) is to improve understanding and projection of future global change. In order to do this they must accurately represent the huge carbon fluxes associated with the terrestrial carbon cycle. Photosynthetic CO2 uptake is the largest of these fluxes, and is well described by the Farquhar, von Caemmerer and Berry (FvCB) model of photosynthesis. Most ESMs use a derivation of the FvCB model to calculate gross primary productivity (GPP). One of the key parameters required by the FvCB model is an estimate of the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco (Vc,max). In ESMs the parameter Vc,max is usually fixed for a given plant functional type (PFT). Although Arctic GPP a small flux relative to global GPP, uncertainty is large. Only four ESMs currently have an explicit Arctic PFT and the data used to derive Vc,max for the Arctic PFT in these models relies on small data sets and unjustified assumptions. As part of a multidisciplinary project to improve the representation of the Arctic in ESMs (Next Generation Ecosystem Experiments - Arctic) we examined the derivation of Vc,max in current Arctic PFTs and estimated Vc,max for 12 species representing both dominant vegetation and key PFTs growing on the Barrow Environmental Observatory, Barrow, AK. The values of Vc,max currently used to represent Arctic PFTs in ESMs are 70% lower than the values we measured in these species. Separate measurements of CO2 assimilation (A) made at ambient conditions were compared with A modeled using the Vc,max values we measured in Barrow and those used by the ESMs. The A modeled with the Vc,max values used by the ESMs was 80% lower than the observed A. When our measured Vc,max values were used, modeled A was within 5% of observed A. Examination of the derivation of Vc,max in ESMs identified that the cause of the relatively low Vc,max value was the result of underestimating both the leaf N content and the investment of that N in Rubisco. Here we have identified possible improvements to the derivation of Vc,max in ESMs and provided new physiological characterization of Arctic species that is mechanistically consistent with observed leaf level CO2 uptake. These data suggest that the Arctic tundra has a much greater capacity for CO2 uptake than is currently represented in ESMs. Our parameterization can be used in future model projections to improve representation of the Arctic landscape in ESMs.

Application of commercial microwave link (CML) derived precipitation data in a hydrology model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smiatek, Gerhard; Chwala, Christian; Kunstmann, Harald

2017-04-01

In 2016 very local and extremely intensive convective events caused severe flooding in the Alpine space. Despite the large number of monitoring stations most of the rainfall events were not captured accurately by the existing rain gauge network. As the number of traditional precipitation monitoring sites is in general decreasing, novel rain monitoring techniques are gaining attention. One of the new techniques is the rainfall estimation from signal attenuation in commercial microwave link (CML) networks operated by cellular phone companies. In this contribution, we use CML-derived rainfall information to improve the streamflow forecast of the distributed hydrology model WaSiM-ETH in hindcasting and nowcasting modes. Our model domain covers the complex terrain of the Ammer catchment located in the German Alps. The hydrology model is operated with a spatial resolution of 100m and with an hourly time step. We present two alternative methods of rainfall estimation from CMLs and compare the results to data from rain gauges and a weather radar. Finally, we show the impact of the rainfall data sets on the hydrology model initialization and in discharge simulations of the Ammer River for selected episodes in 2015 and 2016. We found that the densification of the observation network by the CML observations leads to a significant improvement of the model performance.

Spacebased Estimation of Moisture Transport in Marine Atmosphere Using Support Vector Regression

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xie, Xiaosu; Liu, W. Timothy; Tang, Benyang

2007-01-01

An improved algorithm is developed based on support vector regression (SVR) to estimate horizonal water vapor transport integrated through the depth of the atmosphere ((Theta)) over the global ocean from observations of surface wind-stress vector by QuikSCAT, cloud drift wind vector derived from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) and geostationary satellites, and precipitable water from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I). The statistical relation is established between the input parameters (the surface wind stress, the 850 mb wind, the precipitable water, time and location) and the target data ((Theta) calculated from rawinsondes and reanalysis of numerical weather prediction model). The results are validated with independent daily rawinsonde observations, monthly mean reanalysis data, and through regional water balance. This study clearly demonstrates the improvement of (Theta) derived from satellite data using SVR over previous data sets based on linear regression and neural network. The SVR methodology reduces both mean bias and standard deviation comparedwith rawinsonde observations. It agrees better with observations from synoptic to seasonal time scales, and compare more favorably with the reanalysis data on seasonal variations. Only the SVR result can achieve the water balance over South America. The rationale of the advantage by SVR method and the impact of adding the upper level wind will also be discussed.

Using Combustion Tracers to Estimate Surface Black Carbon Distributions in WRF-Chem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raman, A.; Arellano, A. F.

2015-12-01

Black Carbon (BC) emissions significantly affect the global and regional climate, air quality, and human health. However, BC observations are currently limited in space and time; leading to considerable uncertainties in the estimates of BC distribution from regional and global models. Here, we investigate the usefulness of carbon monoxide (CO) in quantifying BC across continental United States (CONUS). We use high resolution EPA AQS observations of CO and IMPROVE BC to estimate BC/CO ratios. We model the BC and CO distribution using the community Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). We configured WRF-Chem using MOZART chemistry, NEI 2005, MEGAN, and FINNv1.5 for anthropogenic, biogenic and fire emissions, respectively. In this work, we address the following three key questions: 1) What are the discrepancies in the estimates of BC and CO distributions across CONUS during summer and winter periods?, 2) How do BC/CO ratios change for different spatial and temporal regimes?, 3) Can we get better estimates of BC from WRF-Chem if we use BC/CO ratios along with optimizing CO concentrations? We compare ratios derived from the model and observations and develop characteristic ratios for several geographical and temporal regimes. We use an independent set of measurements of BC and CO to evaluate these ratios. Finally, we use a Bayesian synthesis inversion to optimize CO from WRF-Chem using regionally tagged CO tracers. We multiply the characteristic ratios we derived with the optimized CO to obtain BC distributions. Our initial results suggest that the maximum ratios of BC versus CO occur in the western US during the summer (average: 4 ng/m3/ppbv) and in the southeast during the winter (average: 5 ng/m3/ppbv). However, we find that these relationships vary in space and time and are highly dependent on fuel usage and meteorology. We find that optimizing CO using EPA-AQS provides improvements in BC but only over areas where BC/CO ratios are close to observed values.Black Carbon (BC) emissions significantly affect the global and regional climate, air quality, and human health. However, BC observations are currently limited in space and time; leading to considerable uncertainties in the estimates of BC distribution from regional and global models. Here, we investigate the usefulness of carbon monoxide (CO) in quantifying BC across continental United States (CONUS). We use high resolution EPA AQS observations of CO and IMPROVE BC to estimate BC/CO ratios. We model the BC and CO distribution using the community Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). We configured WRF-Chem using MOZART chemistry, NEI 2005, MEGAN, and FINNv1.5 for anthropogenic, biogenic and fire emissions, respectively. In this work, we address the following three key questions: 1) What are the discrepancies in the estimates of BC and CO distributions across CONUS during summer and winter periods?, 2) How do BC/CO ratios change for different spatial and temporal regimes?, 3) Can we get better estimates of BC from WRF-Chem if we use BC/CO ratios along with optimizing CO concentrations? We compare ratios derived from the model and observations and develop characteristic ratios for several geographical and temporal regimes. We use an independent set of measurements of BC and CO to evaluate these ratios. Finally, we use a Bayesian synthesis inversion to optimize CO from WRF-Chem using regionally tagged CO tracers. We multiply the characteristic ratios we derived with the optimized CO to obtain BC distributions. Our initial results suggest that the maximum ratios of BC versus CO occur in the western US during the summer (average: 4 ng/m3/ppbv) and in the southeast during the winter (average: 5 ng/m3/ppbv). However, we find that these relationships vary in space and time and are highly dependent on fuel usage and meteorology. We find that optimizing CO using EPA-AQS provides improvements in BC but only over areas where BC/CO ratios are close to observed values.

Experimental Constraints on Iron Mobilization into Biomass Burning Aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherry, A. M.; Romaniello, S. J.; Herckes, P.; Anbar, A. D.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric deposition of iron (Fe) can limit marine primary productivity and, therefore, carbon dioxide uptake. Recent modeling studies suggest that biomass burning aerosols may contribute a significant amount of soluble Fe to the surface ocean. To address this hypothesis, we collected foliage samples from species representative of several biomes impacted by severe fire events. Existing studies of burn-induced trace element mobilization have often collected both entrained soil particles along with material from burning biomass, making it difficult to determine the actual source of aerosolized trace metals. In order to better constrain the importance of biomass vs. entrained soil as a source of trace metals in burn aerosols, we conducted burn experiments using soil-free foliage representative of a variety of fire-impacted ecosystems. The resulting burn aerosols were collected in two stages (PM > 2.5 μm and PM < 2.5 μm) on cellulose filters using a high-volume air sampler equipped an all-Teflon impactor. Unburned foliage and burn aerosols were analyzed for Fe and other trace metals using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Our results show that 0.06-0.86 % of Fe in plant biomass is likely mobilized as atmospheric aerosols during biomass burning events, depending on the type of foliage. We used these results and estimates of annual global wildfire area to estimate the impact of biomass burning aerosols on total atmospheric Fe flux to the ocean. We estimate that biomass-derived Fe likely contributes 3% of the total soluble Fe flux from aerosols. Prior studies, which implicitly included both biomass and soil-derived Fe, concluded that biomass burning contributed as much as 7% of the total marine soluble Fe flux from aerosols. Together, these studies suggest that biomass and fire-entrained soil probably contribute equally to the total fire-derived Fe aerosol flux. Further study of solubility differences between plant- and soil-derived Fe is needed to improve estimates of the soluble Fe contribution from biomass burning to the marine soluble Fe flux.

Using LIDAR and Quickbird Data to Model Plant Production and Quantify Uncertainties Associated with Wetland Detection and Land Cover Generalizations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cook, Bruce D.; Bolstad, Paul V.; Naesset, Erik; Anderson, Ryan S.; Garrigues, Sebastian; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Nickeson, Jaime; Davis, Kenneth J.

2009-01-01

Spatiotemporal data from satellite remote sensing and surface meteorology networks have made it possible to continuously monitor global plant production, and to identify global trends associated with land cover/use and climate change. Gross primary production (GPP) and net primary production (NPP) are routinely derived from the MOderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard satellites Terra and Aqua, and estimates generally agree with independent measurements at validation sites across the globe. However, the accuracy of GPP and NPP estimates in some regions may be limited by the quality of model input variables and heterogeneity at fine spatial scales. We developed new methods for deriving model inputs (i.e., land cover, leaf area, and photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by plant canopies) from airborne laser altimetry (LiDAR) and Quickbird multispectral data at resolutions ranging from about 30 m to 1 km. In addition, LiDAR-derived biomass was used as a means for computing carbon-use efficiency. Spatial variables were used with temporal data from ground-based monitoring stations to compute a six-year GPP and NPP time series for a 3600 ha study site in the Great Lakes region of North America. Model results compared favorably with independent observations from a 400 m flux tower and a process-based ecosystem model (BIOME-BGC), but only after removing vapor pressure deficit as a constraint on photosynthesis from the MODIS global algorithm. Fine resolution inputs captured more of the spatial variability, but estimates were similar to coarse-resolution data when integrated across the entire vegetation structure, composition, and conversion efficiencies were similar to upland plant communities. Plant productivity estimates were noticeably improved using LiDAR-derived variables, while uncertainties associated with land cover generalizations and wetlands in this largely forested landscape were considered less important.

Normalized difference vegetation index as an estimator for abundance and quality of avian herbivore forage in arctic Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hogrefe, Kyle R.; Patil, Vijay; Ruthrauff, Daniel R.; Meixell, Brandt W.; Budde, Michael E.; Hupp, Jerry W.; Ward, David H.

2017-01-01

Tools that can monitor biomass and nutritional quality of forage plants are needed to understand how arctic herbivores may respond to the rapidly changing environment at high latitudes. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been widely used to assess changes in abundance and distribution of terrestrial vegetative communities. However, the efficacy of NDVI to measure seasonal changes in biomass and nutritional quality of forage plants in the Arctic remains largely un-evaluated at landscape and fine-scale levels. We modeled the relationships between NDVI and seasonal changes in aboveground biomass and nitrogen concentration in halophytic graminoids, a key food source for arctic-nesting geese. The model was calibrated based on data collected at one site and validated using data from another site. Effects of spatial scale on model accuracy were determined by comparing model predictions between NDVI derived from moderate resolution (250 × 250 m pixels) satellite data and high resolution (20 cm diameter area) handheld spectrometer data. NDVI derived from the handheld spectrometer was a superior estimator (R2 ≥ 0.67) of seasonal changes in aboveground biomass compared to satellite-derived NDVI (R2 ≤ 0.40). The addition of temperature and precipitation variables to the model for biomass improved fit, but provided minor gains in predictive power beyond that of the NDVI-only model. This model, however, was only a moderately accurate estimator of biomass in an ecologically-similar halophytic graminoid wetland located 100 km away, indicating the necessity for site-specific validation. In contrast to assessments of biomass, satellite-derived NDVI was a better estimator for the timing of peak percent of nitrogen than NDVI derived from the handheld spectrometer. We confirmed that the date when NDVI reached 50% of its seasonal maximum was a reasonable approximation of the period of peak spring vegetative green-up and peak percent nitrogen. This study demonstrates the importance of matching the scale of NDVI measurements to the vegetation properties of biomass and nitrogen phenology.

Enhancing USDA's Retrospective Analog Year Analyses Using NASA Satellite Precipitation and Soil Moisture Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teng, W. L.; Shannon, H. D.

2013-12-01

The USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) is responsible for monitoring weather and climate impacts on domestic and foreign crop development. One of WAOB's primary goals is to determine the net cumulative effect of weather and climate anomalies on final crop yields. To this end, a broad array of information is consulted, including maps, charts, and time series of recent weather, climate, and crop observations; numerical output from weather and crop models; and reports from the press, USDA attachés, and foreign governments. The resulting agricultural weather assessments are published in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, to keep farmers, policy makers, and commercial agricultural interests informed of weather and climate impacts on agriculture. Because both the amount and timing of precipitation significantly affect crop yields, WAOB has often, as part of its operational process, used historical time series of surface-based precipitation observations to visually identify growing seasons with similar (analog) weather patterns as, and help estimate crop yields for, the current growing season. As part of a larger effort to improve WAOB estimates by integrating NASA remote sensing observations and research results into WAOB's decision-making environment, a more rigorous, statistical method for identifying analog years was developed. This method, termed the analog index (AI), is based on the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. The AI was computed for five study areas and six growing seasons of data analyzed (2003-2007 as potential analog years and 2008 as the target year). Previously reported results compared the performance of AI for time series derived from surface-based observations vs. satellite-retrieved precipitation data. Those results showed that, for all five areas, crop yield estimates derived from satellite-retrieved precipitation data are closer to measured yields than are estimates derived from surface-based precipitation observations. Subsequent work has compared the relative performance of AI for time series derived from satellite-retrieved surface soil moisture data and from root zone soil moisture derived from the assimilation of surface soil moisture data into a land surface model. These results, which also showed the potential benefits of satellite data for analog year analyses, will be presented.

Application of geostatistics to risk assessment.

PubMed

Thayer, William C; Griffith, Daniel A; Goodrum, Philip E; Diamond, Gary L; Hassett, James M

2003-10-01

Geostatistics offers two fundamental contributions to environmental contaminant exposure assessment: (1) a group of methods to quantitatively describe the spatial distribution of a pollutant and (2) the ability to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration by exploiting the geospatial information present in the data. The second contribution is particularly valuable when exposure estimates must be derived from small data sets, which is often the case in environmental risk assessment. This article addresses two topics related to the use of geostatistics in human and ecological risk assessments performed at hazardous waste sites: (1) the importance of assessing model assumptions when using geostatistics and (2) the use of geostatistics to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration (EPC) in the limited data scenario. The latter topic is approached here by comparing design-based estimators that are familiar to environmental risk assessors (e.g., Land's method) with geostatistics, a model-based estimator. In this report, we summarize the basics of spatial weighting of sample data, kriging, and geostatistical simulation. We then explore the two topics identified above in a case study, using soil lead concentration data from a Superfund site (a skeet and trap range). We also describe several areas where research is needed to advance the use of geostatistics in environmental risk assessment.

Speed Profiles for Improvement of Maritime Emission Estimation

PubMed Central

Yau, Pui Shan; Lee, Shun-Cheng; Ho, Kin Fai

2012-01-01

Abstract Maritime emissions play an important role in anthropogenic emissions, particularly for cities with busy ports such as Hong Kong. Ship emissions are strongly dependent on vessel speed, and thus accurate vessel speed is essential for maritime emission studies. In this study, we determined minute-by-minute high-resolution speed profiles of container ships on four major routes in Hong Kong waters using Automatic Identification System (AIS). The activity-based ship emissions of NOx, CO, HC, CO2, SO2, and PM10 were estimated using derived vessel speed profiles, and results were compared with those using the speed limits of control zones. Estimation using speed limits resulted in up to twofold overestimation of ship emissions. Compared with emissions estimated using the speed limits of control zones, emissions estimated using vessel speed profiles could provide results with up to 88% higher accuracy. Uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis of the model demonstrated the significance of improvement of vessel speed resolution. From spatial analysis, it is revealed that SO2 and PM10 emissions during maneuvering within 1 nautical mile from port were the highest. They contributed 7%–22% of SO2 emissions and 8%–17% of PM10 emissions of the entire voyage in Hong Kong. PMID:23236250

An Improved Approach for Estimating Daily Net Radiation over the Heihe River Basin

PubMed Central

Wu, Bingfang; Liu, Shufu; Zhu, Weiwei; Yan, Nana; Xing, Qiang; Tan, Shen

2017-01-01

Net radiation plays an essential role in determining the thermal conditions of the Earth’s surface and is an important parameter for the study of land-surface processes and global climate change. In this paper, an improved satellite-based approach to estimate the daily net radiation is presented, in which sunshine duration were derived from the geostationary meteorological satellite (FY-2D) cloud classification product, the monthly empirical as and bs Angstrom coefficients for net shortwave radiation were calibrated by spatial fitting of the ground data from 1997 to 2006, and the daily net longwave radiation was calibrated with ground data from 2007 to 2010 over the Heihe River Basin in China. The estimated daily net radiation values were validated against ground data for 12 months in 2008 at four stations with different underlying surface types. The average coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.8489, and the averaged Nash-Sutcliffe equation (NSE) was 0.8356. The close agreement between the estimated daily net radiation and observations indicates that the proposed method is promising, especially given the comparison between the spatial distribution and the interpolation of sunshine duration. Potential applications include climate research, energy balance studies and the estimation of global evapotranspiration. PMID:28054976

An Improved Approach for Estimating Daily Net Radiation over the Heihe River Basin.

PubMed

Wu, Bingfang; Liu, Shufu; Zhu, Weiwei; Yan, Nana; Xing, Qiang; Tan, Shen

2017-01-04

Net radiation plays an essential role in determining the thermal conditions of the Earth's surface and is an important parameter for the study of land-surface processes and global climate change. In this paper, an improved satellite-based approach to estimate the daily net radiation is presented, in which sunshine duration were derived from the geostationary meteorological satellite (FY-2D) cloud classification product, the monthly empirical a s and b s Angstrom coefficients for net shortwave radiation were calibrated by spatial fitting of the ground data from 1997 to 2006, and the daily net longwave radiation was calibrated with ground data from 2007 to 2010 over the Heihe River Basin in China. The estimated daily net radiation values were validated against ground data for 12 months in 2008 at four stations with different underlying surface types. The average coefficient of determination ( R ²) was 0.8489, and the averaged Nash-Sutcliffe equation ( NSE ) was 0.8356. The close agreement between the estimated daily net radiation and observations indicates that the proposed method is promising, especially given the comparison between the spatial distribution and the interpolation of sunshine duration. Potential applications include climate research, energy balance studies and the estimation of global evapotranspiration.

Integrating NASA Satellite Data Into USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board Decision Making Environment To Improve Agricultural Estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teng, William; Shannon, Harlan; deJeu, Richard; Kempler, Steve

2012-01-01

The USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) is responsible for monitoring weather and climate impacts on domestic and foreign crop development. One of WAOB's primary goals is to determine the net cumulative effect of weather and climate anomalies on final crop yields. To this end, a broad array of information is consulted. The resulting agricultural weather assessments are published in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, to keep farmers, policy makers, and commercial agricultural interests informed of weather and climate impacts on agriculture. The goal of the current project is to improve WAOB estimates by integrating NASA satellite precipitation and soil moisture observations into WAOB's decision making environment. Precipitation (Level 3 gridded) is from the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA). Soil moisture (Level 2 swath and Level 3 gridded) is generated by the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM) and operationally produced by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GBS DISC). A root zone soil moisture (RZSM) product is also generated, via assimilation of the Level 3 LPRM data by a land surface model (part of a related project). Data services to be available for these products include GeoTIFF, GDS (GrADS Data Server), WMS (Web Map Service), WCS (Web Coverage Service), and NASA Giovanni. Project benchmarking is based on retrospective analyses of WAOB analog year comparisons. The latter are between a given year and historical years with similar weather patterns and estimated crop yields. An analog index (AI) was developed to introduce a more rigorous, statistical approach for identifying analog years. Results thus far show that crop yield estimates derived from TMPA precipitation data are closer to measured yields than are estimates derived from surface-based precipitation measurements. Work is continuing to include LPRM surface soil moisture data and model-assimilated RZSM.

Forecasting Global Horizontal Irradiance Using the LETKF and a Combination of Advected Satellite Images and Sparse Ground Sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harty, T. M.; Lorenzo, A.; Holmgren, W.; Morzfeld, M.

2017-12-01

The irradiance incident on a solar panel is the main factor in determining the power output of that panel. For this reason, accurate global horizontal irradiance (GHI) estimates and forecasts are critical when determining the optimal location for a solar power plant, forecasting utility scale solar power production, or forecasting distributed, behind the meter rooftop solar power production. Satellite images provide a basis for producing the GHI estimates needed to undertake these objectives. The focus of this work is to combine satellite derived GHI estimates with ground sensor measurements and an advection model. The idea is to use accurate but sparsely distributed ground sensors to improve satellite derived GHI estimates which can cover large areas (the size of a city or a region of the United States). We use a Bayesian framework to perform the data assimilation, which enables us to produce irradiance forecasts and associated uncertainties which incorporate both satellite and ground sensor data. Within this framework, we utilize satellite images taken from the GOES-15 geostationary satellite (available every 15-30 minutes) as well as ground data taken from irradiance sensors and rooftop solar arrays (available every 5 minutes). The advection model, driven by wind forecasts from a numerical weather model, simulates cloud motion between measurements. We use the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) to perform the data assimilation. We present preliminary results towards making such a system useful in an operational context. We explain how localization and inflation in the LETKF, perturbations of wind-fields, and random perturbations of the advection model, affect the accuracy of our estimates and forecasts. We present experiments showing the accuracy of our forecasted GHI over forecast-horizons of 15 mins to 1 hr. The limitations of our approach and future improvements are also discussed.

Development of a pump flow estimator for rotary blood pumps to enhance monitoring of ventricular function.

PubMed

Granegger, Marcus; Moscato, Francesco; Casas, Fernando; Wieselthaler, Georg; Schima, Heinrich

2012-08-01

Estimation of instantaneous flow in rotary blood pumps (RBPs) is important for monitoring the interaction between heart and pump and eventually the ventricular function. Our group has reported an algorithm to derive ventricular contractility based on the maximum time derivative (dQ/dt(max) as a substitute for ventricular dP/dt(max) ) and pulsatility of measured flow signals. However, in RBPs used clinically, flow is estimated with a bandwidth too low to determine dQ/dt(max) in the case of improving heart function. The aim of this study was to develop a flow estimator for a centrifugal pump with bandwidth sufficient to provide noninvasive cardiac diagnostics. The new estimator is based on both static and dynamic properties of the brushless DC motor. An in vitro setup was employed to identify the performance of pump and motor up to 20 Hz. The algorithm was validated using physiological ventricular and arterial pressure waveforms in a mock loop which simulated different contractilities (dP/dt(max) 600 to 2300 mm Hg/s), pump speeds (2 to 4 krpm), and fluid viscosities (2 to 4 mPa·s). The mathematically estimated pump flow data were then compared to the datasets measured in the mock loop for different variable combinations (flow ranging from 2.5 to 7 L/min, pulsatility from 3.5 to 6 L/min, dQ/dt(max) from 15 to 60 L/min/s). Transfer function analysis showed that the developed algorithm could estimate the flow waveform with a bandwidth up to 15 Hz (±2 dB). The mean difference between the estimated and measured average flows was +0.06 ± 0.31 L/min and for the flow pulsatilities -0.27 ± 0.2 L/min. Detection of dQ/dt(max) was possible up to a dP/dt(max) level of 2300 mm Hg/s. In conclusion, a flow estimator with sufficient frequency bandwidth and accuracy to allow determination of changes in ventricular contractility even in the case of improving heart function was developed. © 2012, Copyright the Authors. Artificial Organs © 2012, International Center for Artificial Organs and Transplantation and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Exploring the relationship between malaria, rainfall intermittency, and spatial variation in rainfall seasonality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merkord, C. L.; Wimberly, M. C.; Henebry, G. M.; Senay, G. B.

2014-12-01

Malaria is a major public health problem throughout tropical regions of the world. Successful prevention and treatment of malaria requires an understanding of the environmental factors that affect the life cycle of both the malaria pathogens, protozoan parasites, and its vectors, anopheline mosquitos. Because the egg, larval, and pupal stages of mosquito development occur in aquatic habitats, information about the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall is critical for modeling malaria risk. Potential sources of hydrological data include satellite-derived rainfall estimates (TRMM and GPM), evapotranspiration derived from a simplified surface energy balance, and estimates of soil moisture and fractional water cover from passive microwave imagery. Previous studies have found links between malaria cases and total monthly or weekly rainfall in areas where both are highly seasonal. However it is far from clear that monthly or weekly summaries are the best metrics to use to explain malaria outbreaks. It is possible that particular temporal or spatial patterns of rainfall result in better mosquito habitat and thus higher malaria risk. We used malaria case data from the Amhara region of Ethiopia and satellite-derived rainfall estimates to explore the relationship between malaria outbreaks and rainfall with the goal of identifying the most useful rainfall metrics for modeling malaria occurrence. First, we explored spatial variation in the seasonal patterns of both rainfall and malaria cases in Amhara. Second, we assessed the relative importance of different metrics of rainfall intermittency, including alternation of wet and dry spells, the strength of intensity fluctuations, and spatial variability in these measures, in determining the length and severity of malaria outbreaks. We also explored the sensitivity of our results to the choice of method for describing rainfall intermittency and the spatial and temporal scale at which metrics were calculated. Results demonstrate that information about the seasonality and intermittency of rainfall has the potential to improve our understanding of malaria epidemiology and improve our ability to forecast malaria outbreaks.

Combining Observations in the Reflective Solar and Thermal Domains for Improved Mapping of Carbon, Water and Energy FLuxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Houborg, Rasmus; Anderson, Martha; Kustas, Bill; Rodell, Matthew

2011-01-01

This study investigates the utility of integrating remotely sensed estimates of leaf chlorophyll (C(sub ab)) into a thermal-based Two-Source Energy Balance (TSEB) model that estimates land-surface CO2 and energy fluxes using an analytical, light-use-efficiency (LUE) based model of canopy resistance. Day to day variations in nominal LUE (LUE(sub n)) were assessed for a corn crop field in Maryland U.S.A. through model calibration with CO2 flux tower observations. The optimized daily LUE(sub n) values were then compared to estimates of C(sub ab) integrated from gridded maps of chlorophyll content weighted over the tower flux source area. Changes in Cab exhibited a curvilinear relationship with corresponding changes in daily calibrated LUE(sub n) values derived from the tower flux data, and hourly water, energy and carbon flux estimation accuracies from TSEB were significantly improved when using C(sub ab) for delineating spatio-temporal variations in LUE(sub n). The results demonstrate the synergy between thermal infrared and shortwave reflective wavebands in producing valuable remote sensing data for monitoring of carbon and water fluxes.

Estimation of dynamic stability parameters from drop model flight tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chambers, J. R.; Iliff, K. W.

1981-01-01

A recent NASA application of a remotely-piloted drop model to studies of the high angle-of-attack and spinning characteristics of a fighter configuration has provided an opportunity to evaluate and develop parameter estimation methods for the complex aerodynamic environment associated with high angles of attack. The paper discusses the overall drop model operation including descriptions of the model, instrumentation, launch and recovery operations, piloting concept, and parameter identification methods used. Static and dynamic stability derivatives were obtained for an angle-of-attack range from -20 deg to 53 deg. The results of the study indicated that the variations of the estimates with angle of attack were consistent for most of the static derivatives, and the effects of configuration modifications to the model (such as nose strakes) were apparent in the static derivative estimates. The dynamic derivatives exhibited greater uncertainty levels than the static derivatives, possibly due to nonlinear aerodynamics, model response characteristics, or additional derivatives.

Evaluating Satellite Rainfall Estimates for Agro-hydrological Applications in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senay, G. B.; Verdin, J. P.; Korecha, D.; Asfaw, A.

2004-12-01

Regional water balance techniques are used to monitor and forecast crop performance and flooding potentials around the world. In the last few years, satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) have become available at continental scales, which made it possible to develop operational regional water balance models for the monitoring of crops performance and flooding potentials in Africa and other regions of the world as part of an environmental early warning system . The accuracy of RFE in absolute terms and importantly as it relates to agricultural and hydrological applications have not been evaluated systematically. This study evaluated a subset of the Africa-wide RFE product by comparing station-rainfall data and RFE from 1996 to 2002 using over 100 rain-gauge stations from Ethiopia at a dekadal (~10-day) time step. The results showed a general under-estimation of RFE compared to station rainfall values. The correlation between station rainfall data and RFE varied highly from place to place and between seasons. On the other hand, the correlation improved significantly when comparison was made between RFE-derived crop water satisfaction index (WRSI) and station-rainfall-derived WRSI, indicating the usefulness of the RFE for agro-hydrological applications.

Validation of ERS-1 environmental data products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodberlet, Mark A.; Swift, Calvin T.; Wilkerson, John C.

1994-01-01

Evaluation of the launch-version algorithms used by the European Space Agency (ESA) to derive wind field and ocean wave estimates from measurements of sensors aboard the European Remote Sensing satellite, ERS-1, has been accomplished through comparison of the derived parameters with coincident measurements made by 24 open ocean buoys maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). During the period from November 1, 1991 through February 28, 1992, data bases with 577 and 485 pairs of coincident sensor/buoy wind and wave measurements were collected for the Active Microwave Instrument (AMI) and Radar Altimeter (RA) respectively. Based on these data, algorithm retrieval accuracy is estimated to be plus or minus 4 m/s for AMI wind speed, plus or minus 3 m/s for RA wind speed and plus or minus 0.6 m for RA wave height. After removing 180 degree ambiguity errors, the AMI wind direction retrieval accuracy was estimated at plus or minus 28 degrees. All of the ERS-1 wind and wave retrievals are relatively unbiased. These results should be viewed as interim since improved algorithms are under development. As final versions are implemented, additional assessments should be conducted to complete the validation.

Semi-analytical Model for Estimating Absorption Coefficients of Optically Active Constituents in Coastal Waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, D.; Cui, Y.

2015-12-01

The objectives of this paper are to validate the applicability of a multi-band quasi-analytical algorithm (QAA) in retrieval absorption coefficients of optically active constituents in turbid coastal waters, and to further improve the model using a proposed semi-analytical model (SAA). The ap(531) and ag(531) semi-analytically derived using SAA model are quite different from the retrievals procedures of QAA model that ap(531) and ag(531) are semi-analytically derived from the empirical retrievals results of a(531) and a(551). The two models are calibrated and evaluated against datasets taken from 19 independent cruises in West Florida Shelf in 1999-2003, provided by SeaBASS. The results indicate that the SAA model produces a superior performance to QAA model in absorption retrieval. Using of the SAA model in retrieving absorption coefficients of optically active constituents from West Florida Shelf decreases the random uncertainty of estimation by >23.05% from the QAA model. This study demonstrates the potential of the SAA model in absorption coefficients of optically active constituents estimating even in turbid coastal waters. Keywords: Remote sensing; Coastal Water; Absorption Coefficient; Semi-analytical Model

Comparing emission rates derived from a model with a plume-based approach and quantifying the contribution of vehicle classes to on-road emissions and air quality.

PubMed

Xu, Junshi; Wang, Jonathan; Hilker, Nathan; Fallah-Shorshani, Masoud; Saleh, Marc; Tu, Ran; Wang, An; Minet, Laura; Stogios, Christos; Evans, Greg; Hatzopoulou, Marianne

2018-06-05

This study presents a comparison of fleet averaged emission factors (EFs) derived from a traffic emission model with EFs estimated using plume-based measurements, including an investigation of the contribution of vehicle classes to carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), and elemental carbon (EC) along an urban corridor. To this end, a field campaign was conducted over one week in June 2016 on an arterial road in Toronto, Canada. Traffic data were collected using a traffic camera and a radar, while air quality was characterized using two monitoring stations: one located at ground-level and another at the rooftop of a four-storey building. A traffic simulation model was calibrated and validated and sec-by-sec speed profiles for all vehicle trajectories were extracted to model emissions. In addition, dispersion modelling was conducted to identify the extent to which differences in emissions translate to differences in near-road concentrations. Our results indicate that modelled EFs for CO and NO x are twice as high as plume-based EFs. Besides, modelled results indicate that transit bus emissions accounted for 60% and 70% of the total emissions of NO x and EC. Transit bus emission rates in g/passenger.km for NO x and EC were up to 8 and 22 times the emission rates of passenger cars. In contrast, the Toronto streetcars, which are electrically fuelled, were found to improve near-road air quality despite their negative impact on traffic speeds. Finally, we observe that the difference in estimated concentrations derived from the two methods is not as large as the difference in estimated emissions due to the influence of meteorology and of the urban background given that the study network is located in a busy downtown area. Implications This study presents a comparison of fleet averaged emission factors (EFs) derived from a traffic emission model with EFs estimated using plume-based measurements, including an investigation of the contribution of vehicle classes to various pollutants. Besides, dispersion modelling was conducted to identify the extent to which differences in emissions translate to differences in near-road concentrations. We observe that the difference in estimated concentrations derived from the two methods is not as large as the difference in estimated emissions due to the influence of meteorology and of the urban background as the study network is located in a busy downtown area.

Estimation of snow in extratropical cyclones from multiple frequency airborne radar observations. An Expectation-Maximization approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grecu, M.; Tian, L.; Heymsfield, G. M.

2017-12-01

A major challenge in deriving accurate estimates of physical properties of falling snow particles from single frequency space- or airborne radar observations is that snow particles exhibit a large variety of shapes and their electromagnetic scattering characteristics are highly dependent on these shapes. Triple frequency (Ku-Ka-W) radar observations are expected to facilitate the derivation of more accurate snow estimates because specific snow particle shapes tend to have specific signatures in the associated two-dimensional dual-reflectivity-ratio (DFR) space. However, the derivation of accurate snow estimates from triple frequency radar observations is by no means a trivial task. This is because the radar observations can be subject to non-negligible attenuation (especially at W-band when super-cooled water is present), which may significantly impact the interpretation of the information in the DFR space. Moreover, the electromagnetic scattering properties of snow particles are computationally expensive to derive, which makes the derivation of reliable parameterizations usable in estimation methodologies challenging. In this study, we formulate an two-step Expectation Maximization (EM) methodology to derive accurate snow estimates in Extratropical Cyclones (ECTs) from triple frequency airborne radar observations. The Expectation (E) step consists of a least-squares triple frequency estimation procedure applied with given assumptions regarding the relationships between the density of snow particles and their sizes, while the Maximization (M) step consists of the optimization of the assumptions used in step E. The electromagnetic scattering properties of snow particles are derived using the Rayleigh-Gans approximation. The methodology is applied to triple frequency radar observations collected during the Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX). Results show that snowfall estimates above the freezing level in ETCs consistent with the triple frequency radar observations as well as with independent rainfall estimates below the freezing level may be derived using the EM methodology formulated in the study.

Separation of atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological polar motion excitation mechanisms based on a combination of geometric and gravimetric space observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Göttl, F.; Schmidt, M.; Seitz, F.; Bloßfeld, M.

2015-04-01

The goal of our study is to determine accurate time series of geophysical Earth rotation excitations to learn more about global dynamic processes in the Earth system. For this purpose, we developed an adjustment model which allows to combine precise observations from space geodetic observation systems, such as Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR), Global Navigation Satellite Systems, Very Long Baseline Interferometry, Doppler Orbit determination and Radiopositioning Integrated on Satellite, satellite altimetry and satellite gravimetry in order to separate geophysical excitation mechanisms of Earth rotation. Three polar motion time series are applied to derive the polar motion excitation functions (integral effect). Furthermore we use five time variable gravity field solutions from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment to determine not only the integral mass effect but also the oceanic and hydrological mass effects by applying suitable filter techniques and a land-ocean mask. For comparison the integral mass effect is also derived from degree 2 potential coefficients that are estimated from SLR observations. The oceanic mass effect is also determined from sea level anomalies observed by satellite altimetry by reducing the steric sea level anomalies derived from temperature and salinity fields of the oceans. Due to the combination of all geodetic estimated excitations the weaknesses of the individual processing strategies can be reduced and the technique-specific strengths can be accounted for. The formal errors of the adjusted geodetic solutions are smaller than the RMS differences of the geophysical model solutions. The improved excitation time series can be used to improve the geophysical modeling.

A stochastic post-processing method for solar irradiance forecasts derived from NWPs models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lara-Fanego, V.; Pozo-Vazquez, D.; Ruiz-Arias, J. A.; Santos-Alamillos, F. J.; Tovar-Pescador, J.

2010-09-01

Solar irradiance forecast is an important area of research for the future of the solar-based renewable energy systems. Numerical Weather Prediction models (NWPs) have proved to be a valuable tool for solar irradiance forecasting with lead time up to a few days. Nevertheless, these models show low skill in forecasting the solar irradiance under cloudy conditions. Additionally, climatic (averaged over seasons) aerosol loading are usually considered in these models, leading to considerable errors for the Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) forecasts during high aerosols load conditions. In this work we propose a post-processing method for the Global Irradiance (GHI) and DNI forecasts derived from NWPs. Particularly, the methods is based on the use of Autoregressive Moving Average with External Explanatory Variables (ARMAX) stochastic models. These models are applied to the residuals of the NWPs forecasts and uses as external variables the measured cloud fraction and aerosol loading of the day previous to the forecast. The method is evaluated for a set one-moth length three-days-ahead forecast of the GHI and DNI, obtained based on the WRF mesoscale atmospheric model, for several locations in Andalusia (Southern Spain). The Cloud fraction is derived from MSG satellite estimates and the aerosol loading from the MODIS platform estimates. Both sources of information are readily available at the time of the forecast. Results showed a considerable improvement of the forecasting skill of the WRF model using the proposed post-processing method. Particularly, relative improvement (in terms of the RMSE) for the DNI during summer is about 20%. A similar value is obtained for the GHI during the winter.

Pattern recognition of satellite cloud imagery for improved weather prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gautier, Catherine; Somerville, Richard C. J.; Volfson, Leonid B.

1986-01-01

The major accomplishment was the successful development of a method for extracting time derivative information from geostationary meteorological satellite imagery. This research is a proof-of-concept study which demonstrates the feasibility of using pattern recognition techniques and a statistical cloud classification method to estimate time rate of change of large-scale meteorological fields from remote sensing data. The cloud classification methodology is based on typical shape function analysis of parameter sets characterizing the cloud fields. The three specific technical objectives, all of which were successfully achieved, are as follows: develop and test a cloud classification technique based on pattern recognition methods, suitable for the analysis of visible and infrared geostationary satellite VISSR imagery; develop and test a methodology for intercomparing successive images using the cloud classification technique, so as to obtain estimates of the time rate of change of meteorological fields; and implement this technique in a testbed system incorporating an interactive graphics terminal to determine the feasibility of extracting time derivative information suitable for comparison with numerical weather prediction products.

A teleseismic study of the 2002 Denali fault, Alaska, earthquake and implications for rapid strong-motion estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ji, C.; Helmberger, D.V.; Wald, D.J.

2004-01-01

Slip histories for the 2002 M7.9 Denali fault, Alaska, earthquake are derived rapidly from global teleseismic waveform data. In phases, three models improve matching waveform data and recovery of rupture details. In the first model (Phase I), analogous to an automated solution, a simple fault plane is fixed based on the preliminary Harvard Centroid Moment Tensor mechanism and the epicenter provided by the Preliminary Determination of Epicenters. This model is then updated (Phase II) by implementing a more realistic fault geometry inferred from Digital Elevation Model topography and further (Phase III) by using the calibrated P-wave and SH-wave arrival times derived from modeling of the nearby 2002 M6.7 Nenana Mountain earthquake. These models are used to predict the peak ground velocity and the shaking intensity field in the fault vicinity. The procedure to estimate local strong motion could be automated and used for global real-time earthquake shaking and damage assessment. ?? 2004, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Snowpack Estimates Improve Water Resources Climate-Change Adaptation Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lestak, L.; Molotch, N. P.; Guan, B.; Granger, S. L.; Nemeth, S.; Rizzardo, D.; Gehrke, F.; Franz, K. J.; Karsten, L. R.; Margulis, S. A.; Case, K.; Anderson, M.; Painter, T. H.; Dozier, J.

2010-12-01

Observed climate trends over the past 50 years indicate a reduction in snowpack water storage across the Western U.S. As the primary water source for the region, the loss in snowpack water storage presents significant challenges for managing water deliveries to meet agricultural, municipal, and hydropower demands. Improved snowpack information via remote sensing shows promise for improving seasonal water supply forecasts and for informing decadal scale infrastructure planning. An ongoing project in the California Sierra Nevada and examples from the Rocky Mountains indicate the tractability of estimating snowpack water storage on daily time steps using a distributed snowpack reconstruction model. Fractional snow covered area (FSCA) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data were used with modeled snowmelt from the snowpack model to estimate snow water equivalent (SWE) in the Sierra Nevada (64,515 km2). Spatially distributed daily SWE estimates were calculated for 10 years, 2000-2009, with detailed analysis for two anamolous years, 2006, a wet year and 2009, an over-forecasted year. Sierra-wide mean SWE was 0.8 cm for 01 April 2006 versus 0.4 cm for 01 April 2009, comparing favorably with known outflow. Modeled SWE was compared to in-situ (observed) SWE for 01 April 2006 for the Feather (northern Sierra, lower-elevation) and Merced (central Sierra, higher-elevation) basins, with mean modeled SWE 80% of observed SWE. Integration of spatial SWE estimates into forecasting operations will allow for better visualization and analysis of high-altitude late-season snow missed by in-situ snow sensors and inter-annual anomalies associated with extreme precipitation events/atmospheric rivers. Collaborations with state and local entities establish protocols on how to meet current and future information needs and improve climate-change adaptation strategies.

Quantitative Estimation of Land Surface Characteristic Parameters and Actual Evapotranspiration in the Nagqu River Basin over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, L.; Ma, Y.; Ma, W.; Zou, M.; Hu, Y.

2016-12-01

Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is an important component of the water cycle in the Tibetan Plateau. It is controlled by many hydrological and meteorological factors. Therefore, it is of great significance to estimate ETa accurately and continuously. It is also drawing much attention of scientific community to understand land surface parameters and land-atmosphere water exchange processes in small watershed-scale areas. Based on in-situ meteorological data in the Nagqu river basin and surrounding regions, the main meteorological factors affecting the evaporation process were quantitatively analyzed and the point-scale ETa estimation models in the study area were successfully built. On the other hand, multi-source satellite data (such as SPOT, MODIS, FY-2C) were used to derive the surface characteristics in the river basin. A time series processing technique was applied to remove cloud cover and reconstruct data series. Then improved land surface albedo, improved downward shortwave radiation flux and reconstructed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were coupled into the topographical enhanced surface energy balance system to estimate ETa. The model-estimated results were compared with those ETa values determined by combinatory method. The results indicated that the model-estimated ETa agreed well with in-situ measurements with correlation coefficient, mean bias error and root mean square error of 0.836, 0.087 and 0.140 mm/h respectively.

Use of Satellite Observations for Long-Term Exposure Assessment of Global Concentrations of Fine Particulate Matter

PubMed Central

Martin, Randall V.; Brauer, Michael; Boys, Brian L.

2014-01-01

Background: More than a decade of satellite observations offers global information about the trend and magnitude of human exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Objective: In this study, we developed improved global exposure estimates of ambient PM2.5 mass and trend using PM2.5 concentrations inferred from multiple satellite instruments. Methods: We combined three satellite-derived PM2.5 sources to produce global PM2.5 estimates at about 10 km × 10 km from 1998 through 2012. For each source, we related total column retrievals of aerosol optical depth to near-ground PM2.5 using the GEOS–Chem chemical transport model to represent local aerosol optical properties and vertical profiles. We collected 210 global ground-based PM2.5 observations from the literature to evaluate our satellite-based estimates with values measured in areas other than North America and Europe. Results: We estimated that global population-weighted ambient PM2.5 concentrations increased 0.55 μg/m3/year (95% CI: 0.43, 0.67) (2.1%/year; 95% CI: 1.6, 2.6) from 1998 through 2012. Increasing PM2.5 in some developing regions drove this global change, despite decreasing PM2.5 in some developed regions. The estimated proportion of the population of East Asia living above the World Health Organization (WHO) Interim Target-1 of 35 μg/m3 increased from 51% in 1998–2000 to 70% in 2010–2012. In contrast, the North American proportion above the WHO Air Quality Guideline of 10 μg/m3 fell from 62% in 1998–2000 to 19% in 2010–2012. We found significant agreement between satellite-derived estimates and ground-based measurements outside North America and Europe (r = 0.81; n = 210; slope = 0.68). The low bias in satellite-derived estimates suggests that true global concentrations could be even greater. Conclusions: Satellite observations provide insight into global long-term changes in ambient PM2.5 concentrations. Satellite-derived estimates and ground-based PM2.5 observations from this study are available for public use. Citation: van Donkelaar A, Martin RV, Brauer M, Boys BL. 2015. Use of satellite observations for long-term exposure assessment of global concentrations of fine particulate matter. Environ Health Perspect 123:135–143; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408646 PMID:25343779

Detecting Inter-Annual Variations in the Phenology of Evergreen Conifers Using Long-Term MODIS Vegetation Index Time Series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ulsig, Laura; Nichol, Caroline J.; Huemmrich, Karl F.; Landis, David R.; Middleton, Elizabeth M.; Lyapustin, Alexei I.; Mammarella, Ivan; Levula, Janne; Porcar-Castell, Albert

2017-01-01

Long-term observations of vegetation phenology can be used to monitor the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. Satellite remote sensing provides the most efficient means to observe phenological events through time series analysis of vegetation indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). This study investigates the potential of a Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI), which has been linked to vegetation light use efficiency, to improve the accuracy of MODIS-based estimates of phenology in an evergreen conifer forest. Timings of the start and end of the growing season (SGS and EGS) were derived from a 13-year-long time series of PRI and NDVI based on a MAIAC (multi-angle implementation of atmospheric correction) processed MODIS dataset and standard MODIS NDVI product data. The derived dates were validated with phenology estimates from ground-based flux tower measurements of ecosystem productivity. Significant correlations were found between the MAIAC time series and ground-estimated SGS (R (sup 2) equals 0.36-0.8), which is remarkable since previous studies have found it difficult to observe inter-annual phenological variations in evergreen vegetation from satellite data. The considerably noisier NDVI product could not accurately predict SGS, and EGS could not be derived successfully from any of the time series. While the strongest relationship overall was found between SGS derived from the ground data and PRI, MAIAC NDVI exhibited high correlations with SGS more consistently (R (sup 2) is greater than 0.6 in all cases). The results suggest that PRI can serve as an effective indicator of spring seasonal transitions, however, additional work is necessary to confirm the relationships observed and to further explore the usefulness of MODIS PRI for detecting phenology.

A Hybrid Neural Network-Genetic Algorithm Technique for Aircraft Engine Performance Diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kobayashi, Takahisa; Simon, Donald L.

2001-01-01

In this paper, a model-based diagnostic method, which utilizes Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms, is investigated. Neural networks are applied to estimate the engine internal health, and Genetic Algorithms are applied for sensor bias detection and estimation. This hybrid approach takes advantage of the nonlinear estimation capability provided by neural networks while improving the robustness to measurement uncertainty through the application of Genetic Algorithms. The hybrid diagnostic technique also has the ability to rank multiple potential solutions for a given set of anomalous sensor measurements in order to reduce false alarms and missed detections. The performance of the hybrid diagnostic technique is evaluated through some case studies derived from a turbofan engine simulation. The results show this approach is promising for reliable diagnostics of aircraft engines.

Human leader and robot follower team: correcting leader's position from follower's heading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borenstein, Johann; Thomas, David; Sights, Brandon; Ojeda, Lauro; Bankole, Peter; Fellars, Donald

2010-04-01

In multi-agent scenarios, there can be a disparity in the quality of position estimation amongst the various agents. Here, we consider the case of two agents - a leader and a follower - following the same path, in which the follower has a significantly better estimate of position and heading. This may be applicable to many situations, such as a robotic "mule" following a soldier. Another example is that of a convoy, in which only one vehicle (not necessarily the leading one) is instrumented with precision navigation instruments while all other vehicles use lower-precision instruments. We present an algorithm, called Follower-derived Heading Correction (FDHC), which substantially improves estimates of the leader's heading and, subsequently, position. Specifically, FHDC produces a very accurate estimate of heading errors caused by slow-changing errors (e.g., those caused by drift in gyros) of the leader's navigation system and corrects those errors.

Robust Characterization of Loss Rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallman, Joel J.; Barnhill, Marie; Emerson, Joseph

2015-08-01

Many physical implementations of qubits—including ion traps, optical lattices and linear optics—suffer from loss. A nonzero probability of irretrievably losing a qubit can be a substantial obstacle to fault-tolerant methods of processing quantum information, requiring new techniques to safeguard against loss that introduce an additional overhead that depends upon the loss rate. Here we present a scalable and platform-independent protocol for estimating the average loss rate (averaged over all input states) resulting from an arbitrary Markovian noise process, as well as an independent estimate of detector efficiency. Moreover, we show that our protocol gives an additional constraint on estimated parameters from randomized benchmarking that improves the reliability of the estimated error rate and provides a new indicator for non-Markovian signatures in the experimental data. We also derive a bound for the state-dependent loss rate in terms of the average loss rate.

An optimal pole-matching observer design for estimating tyre-road friction force

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faraji, Mohammad; Johari Majd, Vahid; Saghafi, Behrooz; Sojoodi, Mahdi

2010-10-01

In this paper, considering the dynamical model of tyre-road contacts, we design a nonlinear observer for the on-line estimation of tyre-road friction force using the average lumped LuGre model without any simplification. The design is the extension of a previously offered observer to allow a muchmore realistic estimation by considering the effect of the rolling resistance and a term related to the relative velocity in the observer. Our aim is not to introduce a new friction model, but to present a more accurate nonlinear observer for the assumed model. We derive linear matrix equality conditions to obtain an observer gain with minimum pole mismatch for the desired observer error dynamic system. We prove the convergence of the observer for the non-simplified model. Finally, we compare the performance of the proposed observer with that of the previously mentioned nonlinear observer, which shows significant improvement in the accuracy of estimation.

Estimation variance bounds of importance sampling simulations in digital communication systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lu, D.; Yao, K.

1991-01-01

In practical applications of importance sampling (IS) simulation, two basic problems are encountered, that of determining the estimation variance and that of evaluating the proper IS parameters needed in the simulations. The authors derive new upper and lower bounds on the estimation variance which are applicable to IS techniques. The upper bound is simple to evaluate and may be minimized by the proper selection of the IS parameter. Thus, lower and upper bounds on the improvement ratio of various IS techniques relative to the direct Monte Carlo simulation are also available. These bounds are shown to be useful and computationally simple to obtain. Based on the proposed technique, one can readily find practical suboptimum IS parameters. Numerical results indicate that these bounding techniques are useful for IS simulations of linear and nonlinear communication systems with intersymbol interference in which bit error rate and IS estimation variances cannot be obtained readily using prior techniques.

Validation of the Martin Method for Estimating Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Levels in Korean Adults: Findings from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2009-2011

PubMed Central

Lee, Jongseok; Jang, Sungok; Son, Heejeong

2016-01-01

Despite the importance of accurate assessment for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), the Friedewald formula has primarily been used as a cost-effective method to estimate LDL-C when triglycerides are less than 400 mg/dL. In a recent study, an alternative to the formula was proposed to improve estimation of LDL-C. We evaluated the performance of the novel method versus the Friedewald formula using a sample of 5,642 Korean adults with LDL-C measured by an enzymatic homogeneous assay (LDL-CD). Friedewald LDL-C (LDL-CF) was estimated using a fixed factor of 5 for the ratio of triglycerides to very-low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG:VLDL-C ratio). However, the novel LDL-C (LDL-CN) estimates were calculated using the N-strata-specific median TG:VLDL-C ratios, LDL-C5 and LDL-C25 from respective ratios derived from our data set, and LDL-C180 from the 180-cell table reported by the original study. Compared with LDL-CF, each LDL-CN estimate exhibited a significantly higher overall concordance in the NCEP-ATP III guideline classification with LDL-CD (p< 0.001 for each comparison). Overall concordance was 78.2% for LDL-CF, 81.6% for LDL-C5, 82.3% for LDL-C25, and 82.0% for LDL-C180. Compared to LDL-C5, LDL-C25 significantly but slightly improved overall concordance (p = 0.008). LDL-C25 and LDL-C180 provided almost the same overall concordance; however, LDL-C180 achieved superior improvement in classifying LDL-C < 70 mg/dL compared to the other estimates. In subjects with triglycerides of 200 to 399 mg/dL, each LDL-CN estimate showed a significantly higher concordance than that of LDL-CF (p< 0.001 for each comparison). The novel method offers a significant improvement in LDL-C estimation when compared with the Friedewald formula. However, it requires further modification and validation considering the racial differences as well as the specific character of the applied measuring method. PMID:26824910

Stability analysis of neural networks with time-varying delay: Enhanced stability criteria and conservatism comparisons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Wen-Juan; He, Yong; Zhang, Chuan-Ke; Wu, Min

2018-01-01

This paper is concerned with the stability analysis of neural networks with a time-varying delay. To assess system stability accurately, the conservatism reduction of stability criteria has attracted many efforts, among which estimating integral terms as exact as possible is a key issue. At first, this paper develops a new relaxed integral inequality to reduce the estimation gap of popular Wirtinger-based inequality (WBI). Then, for showing the advantages of the proposed inequality over several existing inequalities that also improve the WBI, four stability criteria are derived through different inequalities and the same Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional (LKF), and the conservatism comparison of them is analyzed theoretically. Moreover, an improved criterion is established by combining the proposed inequality and an augmented LKF with delay-product-type terms. Finally, several numerical examples are used to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method.

On-Line Robust Modal Stability Prediction using Wavelet Processing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brenner, Martin J.; Lind, Rick

1998-01-01

Wavelet analysis for filtering and system identification has been used to improve the estimation of aeroservoelastic stability margins. The conservatism of the robust stability margins is reduced with parametric and nonparametric time- frequency analysis of flight data in the model validation process. Nonparametric wavelet processing of data is used to reduce the effects of external disturbances and unmodeled dynamics. Parametric estimates of modal stability are also extracted using the wavelet transform. Computation of robust stability margins for stability boundary prediction depends on uncertainty descriptions derived from the data for model validation. The F-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle aeroservoelastic flight test data demonstrates improved robust stability prediction by extension of the stability boundary beyond the flight regime. Guidelines and computation times are presented to show the efficiency and practical aspects of these procedures for on-line implementation. Feasibility of the method is shown for processing flight data from time- varying nonstationary test points.

Improved gap size estimation for scaffolding algorithms.

PubMed

Sahlin, Kristoffer; Street, Nathaniel; Lundeberg, Joakim; Arvestad, Lars

2012-09-01

One of the important steps of genome assembly is scaffolding, in which contigs are linked using information from read-pairs. Scaffolding provides estimates about the order, relative orientation and distance between contigs. We have found that contig distance estimates are generally strongly biased and based on false assumptions. Since erroneous distance estimates can mislead in subsequent analysis, it is important to provide unbiased estimation of contig distance. In this article, we show that state-of-the-art programs for scaffolding are using an incorrect model of gap size estimation. We discuss why current maximum likelihood estimators are biased and describe what different cases of bias we are facing. Furthermore, we provide a model for the distribution of reads that span a gap and derive the maximum likelihood equation for the gap length. We motivate why this estimate is sound and show empirically that it outperforms gap estimators in popular scaffolding programs. Our results have consequences both for scaffolding software, structural variation detection and for library insert-size estimation as is commonly performed by read aligners. A reference implementation is provided at https://github.com/SciLifeLab/gapest. Supplementary data are availible at Bioinformatics online.

Benchmarking an operational procedure for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dottori, Francesco; Salamon, Peter; Kalas, Milan; Bianchi, Alessandra; Feyen, Luc

2016-04-01

The development of real-time methods for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment is crucial to improve emergency response and mitigate flood impacts. This work describes the benchmarking of an operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment based on the flood predictions issued by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). The daily forecasts produced for the major European river networks are translated into event-based flood hazard maps using a large map catalogue derived from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations, based on the hydro-meteorological dataset of EFAS. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information, and the impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in near real-time in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, affected population, infrastructures and cities. An extensive testing of the operational procedure is carried out using the catastrophic floods of May 2014 in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. The reliability of the flood mapping methodology is tested against satellite-derived flood footprints, while ground-based estimations of economic damage and affected population is compared against modelled estimates. We evaluated the skill of flood hazard and risk estimations derived from EFAS flood forecasts with different lead times and combinations. The assessment includes a comparison of several alternative approaches to produce and present the information content, in order to meet the requests of EFAS users. The tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management.

View angle effects on relationships between leaf area index in wheat and vegetation indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, H.; Li, W.; Huang, W.; Niu, Z.

2016-12-01

The effects of plant types and view angles on the canopy-reflected spectrum can not be ignored in the estimation of leaf area index (LAI) using remote sensing vegetation indices. While vegetation indices derived from nadir-viewing remote sensors are insufficient in leaf area index (LAI) estimation because of its misinterpretation of structural characteristecs, vegetation indices derived from multi-angular remote sensors have potential to improve detection of LAI. However, view angle effects on relationships between these indices and LAI for low standing crops (i.e. wheat) has not been fully evaluated and thus limits them to applied for consistent and accurate monitoring of vegetation. View angles effects of two types of winter wheat (wheat 411, erectophile; and wheat 9507, planophile) on relationship between LAI and spectral reflectance are assessed and compared in this study. An evaluation is conducted with in-situ measurements of LAI and bidirectional reflectance in the principal plane from -60° (back-scattering direction ) ot 60° (forward scattering direction) in the growth cycle of winter wheat. A variety of vegetation indices (VIs) published are calculated by BRDF. Additionally, all combinations of the bands are used in order to calculate Normalized difference Spectral Indices (NDSI) and Simple Subtraction Indices (SSI). The performance of the above indices along with raw reflectance and reflectance derivatives on LAI estimation are examined based on a linearity comparison. The results will be helpful in further developing multi-angle remote sensing models for accurate LAI evaluation.

Determining the Uncertainties in Prescribed Burn Emissions Through Comparison of Satellite Estimates to Ground-based Estimates and Air Quality Model Evaluations in Southeastern US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odman, M. T.; Hu, Y.; Russell, A. G.

2016-12-01

Prescribed burning is practiced throughout the US, and most widely in the Southeast, for the purpose of maintaining and improving the ecosystem, and reducing the wildfire risk. However, prescribed burn emissions contribute significantly to the of trace gas and particulate matter loads in the atmosphere. In places where air quality is already stressed by other anthropogenic emissions, prescribed burns can lead to major health and environmental problems. Air quality modeling efforts are under way to assess the impacts of prescribed burn emissions. Operational forecasts of the impacts are also emerging for use in dynamic management of air quality as well as the burns. Unfortunately, large uncertainties exist in the process of estimating prescribed burn emissions and these uncertainties limit the accuracy of the burn impact predictions. Prescribed burn emissions are estimated by using either ground-based information or satellite observations. When there is sufficient local information about the burn area, the types of fuels, their consumption amounts, and the progression of the fire, ground-based estimates are more accurate. In the absence of such information satellites remain as the only reliable source for emission estimation. To determine the level of uncertainty in prescribed burn emissions, we compared estimates derived from a burn permit database and other ground-based information to the estimates by the Biomass Burning Emissions Product derived from a constellation of NOAA and NASA satellites. Using these emissions estimates we conducted simulations with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model and predicted trace gas and particulate matter concentrations throughout the Southeast for two consecutive burn seasons (2015 and 2016). In this presentation, we will compare model predicted concentrations to measurements at monitoring stations and evaluate if the differences are commensurate with our emission uncertainty estimates. We will also investigate if spatial and temporal patterns in the differences reveal the sources of the uncertainty in the prescribed burn emission estimates.

Tropical forest plantation biomass estimation using RADARSAT-SAR and TM data of south china

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chenli; Niu, Zheng; Gu, Xiaoping; Guo, Zhixing; Cong, Pifu

2005-10-01

Forest biomass is one of the most important parameters for global carbon stock model yet can only be estimated with great uncertainties. Remote sensing, especially SAR data can offers the possibility of providing relatively accurate forest biomass estimations at a lower cost than inventory in study tropical forest. The goal of this research was to compare the sensitivity of forest biomass to Landsat TM and RADARSAT-SAR data and to assess the efficiency of NDVI, EVI and other vegetation indices in study forest biomass based on the field survey date and GIS in south china. Based on vegetation indices and factor analysis, multiple regression and neural networks were developed for biomass estimation for each species of the plantation. For each species, the better relationships between the biomass predicted and that measured from field survey was obtained with a neural network developed for the species. The relationship between predicted and measured biomass derived from vegetation indices differed between species. This study concludes that single band and many vegetation indices are weakly correlated with selected forest biomass. RADARSAT-SAR Backscatter coefficient has a relatively good logarithmic correlation with forest biomass, but neither TM spectral bands nor vegetation indices alone are sufficient to establish an efficient model for biomass estimation due to the saturation of bands and vegetation indices, multiple regression models that consist of spectral and environment variables improve biomass estimation performance. Comparing with TM, a relatively well estimation result can be achieved by RADARSAT-SAR, but all had limitations in tropical forest biomass estimation. The estimation results obtained are not accurate enough for forest management purposes at the forest stand level. However, the approximate volume estimates derived by the method can be useful in areas where no other forest information is available. Therefore, this paper provides a better understanding of relationships of remote sensing data and forest stand parameters used in forest parameter estimation models.

Expanding the Estimation of Surface PM2.5 from Aqua and Terra MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth in the EPA's AirNow Satellite Data Processor to Suomi NPP VIIRS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szykman, J.; Kondragunta, S.; Zhang, H.; Dickerson, P.; van Donkelaar, A.; Martin, R. V.; Pasch, A. N.; White, J. E.; DeWinter, J. L.; Zahn, P. H.; Dye, T. S.; Haderman, M. D.

2012-12-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Air Quality Index (AQI) relies on hourly measurements of ground-based surface PM2.5 (particles smaller than 2.5 μm in median diameter) to develop daily AQI index maps. The EPA is improving the accuracy of AQI information and extending its coverage for reporting to the public by incorporating National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) satellite-derived surface PM2.5 concentrations into daily AQI maps. The additional coverage will provide air quality information in regions without dense monitoring networks. The AirNow Satellite Data Processor (ASDP) uses daily PM2.5 estimates and uncertainties derived from average Aqua and Terra MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical depth (AOD) in near real-time over the United States. The algorithm to derive surface PM2.5 from MODIS AOD relies on linear relationships between AOD and PM2.5 generated from multi-year GEOS-Chem model simulations (van Donkelaar et al., 2012). Parameters from the regression equation (slopes and intercepts) are saved in a lookup table (LUT) with 4 km spatial resolution for each day of a given year. To improve data accuracy and continuity, a filter is applied to remove MODIS AOD with low accuracy (e.g., over bright surfaces) and an inverse distance weighted average is applied to fill in gaps created by cloud coverage. Daily surface PM2.5 estimates and their uncertainties are generated at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) using the van Donkelaar et al. algorithm and near real-time MODIS AOD products from Terra and Aqua and are provided to the EPA through its Infusing satellite Data into Environmental Applications (IDEA) website. The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) was launched on October 28, 2011, and similar to MODIS, provides AOD products for real-time applications. NOAA plans to explore the value of VIIRS AOD products to improve AQI. This presentation will focus on a description of ASDP, including an overview of the algorithm used to estimate surface PM2.5 using satellite data and examples of high resolution VIIRS AOD products and their value to the ASDP. Disclaimer: Although this work was reviewed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and approved for publication, it may not necessarily reflect official Agency policy.

Hand-Eye Calibration of Robonaut

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nickels, Kevin; Huber, Eric

2004-01-01

NASA's Human Space Flight program depends heavily on Extra-Vehicular Activities (EVA's) performed by human astronauts. EVA is a high risk environment that requires extensive training and ground support. In collaboration with the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), NASA is conducting a ground development project to produce a robotic astronaut's assistant, called Robonaut, that could help reduce human EVA time and workload. The project described in this paper designed and implemented a hand-eye calibration scheme for Robonaut, Unit A. The intent of this calibration scheme is to improve hand-eye coordination of the robot. The basic approach is to use kinematic and stereo vision measurements, namely the joint angles self-reported by the right arm and 3-D positions of a calibration fixture as measured by vision, to estimate the transformation from Robonaut's base coordinate system to its hand coordinate system and to its vision coordinate system. Two methods of gathering data sets have been developed, along with software to support each. In the first, the system observes the robotic arm and neck angles as the robot is operated under external control, and measures the 3-D position of a calibration fixture using Robonaut's stereo cameras, and logs these data. In the second, the system drives the arm and neck through a set of pre-recorded configurations, and data are again logged. Two variants of the calibration scheme have been developed. The full calibration scheme is a batch procedure that estimates all relevant kinematic parameters of the arm and neck of the robot The daily calibration scheme estimates only joint offsets for each rotational joint on the arm and neck, which are assumed to change from day to day. The schemes have been designed to be automatic and easy to use so that the robot can be fully recalibrated when needed such as after repair, upgrade, etc, and can be partially recalibrated after each power cycle. The scheme has been implemented on Robonaut Unit A and has been shown to reduce mismatch between kinematically derived positions and visually derived positions from a mean of 13.75cm using the previous calibration to means of 1.85cm using a full calibration and 2.02cm using a suboptimal but faster daily calibration. This improved calibration has already enabled the robot to more accurately reach for and grasp objects that it sees within its workspace. The system has been used to support an autonomous wrench-grasping experiment and significantly improved the workspace positioning of the hand based on visually derived wrench position. estimates.

Estimating migratory connectivity of birds when re-encounter probabilities are heterogeneous

PubMed Central

Cohen, Emily B; Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Royle, J Andrew; Marra, Peter P

2014-01-01

Understanding the biology and conducting effective conservation of migratory species requires an understanding of migratory connectivity – the geographic linkages of populations between stages of the annual cycle. Unfortunately, for most species, we are lacking such information. The North American Bird Banding Laboratory (BBL) houses an extensive database of marking, recaptures and recoveries, and such data could provide migratory connectivity information for many species. To date, however, few species have been analyzed for migratory connectivity largely because heterogeneous re-encounter probabilities make interpretation problematic. We accounted for regional variation in re-encounter probabilities by borrowing information across species and by using effort covariates on recapture and recovery probabilities in a multistate capture–recapture and recovery model. The effort covariates were derived from recaptures and recoveries of species within the same regions. We estimated the migratory connectivity for three tern species breeding in North America and over-wintering in the tropics, common (Sterna hirundo), roseate (Sterna dougallii), and Caspian terns (Hydroprogne caspia). For western breeding terns, model-derived estimates of migratory connectivity differed considerably from those derived directly from the proportions of re-encounters. Conversely, for eastern breeding terns, estimates were merely refined by the inclusion of re-encounter probabilities. In general, eastern breeding terns were strongly connected to eastern South America, and western breeding terns were strongly linked to the more western parts of the nonbreeding range under both models. Through simulation, we found this approach is likely useful for many species in the BBL database, although precision improved with higher re-encounter probabilities and stronger migratory connectivity. We describe an approach to deal with the inherent biases in BBL banding and re-encounter data to demonstrate that this large dataset is a valuable source of information about the migratory connectivity of the birds of North America. PMID:24967083

Estimating migratory connectivity of birds when re-encounter probabilities are heterogeneous

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohen, Emily B.; Hostelter, Jeffrey A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Marra, Peter P.

2014-01-01

Understanding the biology and conducting effective conservation of migratory species requires an understanding of migratory connectivity – the geographic linkages of populations between stages of the annual cycle. Unfortunately, for most species, we are lacking such information. The North American Bird Banding Laboratory (BBL) houses an extensive database of marking, recaptures and recoveries, and such data could provide migratory connectivity information for many species. To date, however, few species have been analyzed for migratory connectivity largely because heterogeneous re-encounter probabilities make interpretation problematic. We accounted for regional variation in re-encounter probabilities by borrowing information across species and by using effort covariates on recapture and recovery probabilities in a multistate capture–recapture and recovery model. The effort covariates were derived from recaptures and recoveries of species within the same regions. We estimated the migratory connectivity for three tern species breeding in North America and over-wintering in the tropics, common (Sterna hirundo), roseate (Sterna dougallii), and Caspian terns (Hydroprogne caspia). For western breeding terns, model-derived estimates of migratory connectivity differed considerably from those derived directly from the proportions of re-encounters. Conversely, for eastern breeding terns, estimates were merely refined by the inclusion of re-encounter probabilities. In general, eastern breeding terns were strongly connected to eastern South America, and western breeding terns were strongly linked to the more western parts of the nonbreeding range under both models. Through simulation, we found this approach is likely useful for many species in the BBL database, although precision improved with higher re-encounter probabilities and stronger migratory connectivity. We describe an approach to deal with the inherent biases in BBL banding and re-encounter data to demonstrate that this large dataset is a valuable source of information about the migratory connectivity of the birds of North America.

Limits on estimating the width of thin tubular structures in 3D images.

PubMed

Wörz, Stefan; Rohr, Karl

2006-01-01

This work studies limits on estimating the width of thin tubular structures in 3D images. Based on nonlinear estimation theory we analyze the minimal stochastic error of estimating the width. Given a 3D analytic model of the image intensities of tubular structures, we derive a closed-form expression for the Cramér-Rao bound of the width estimate under image noise. We use the derived lower bound as a benchmark and compare it with three previously proposed accuracy limits for vessel width estimation. Moreover, by experimental investigations we demonstrate that the derived lower bound can be achieved by fitting a 3D parametric intensity model directly to the image data.

A Novel Uncertainty Framework for Improving Discharge Data Quality Using Hydraulic Modelling.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansanarez, V.; Westerberg, I.; Lyon, S. W.; Lam, N.

2017-12-01

Flood risk assessments rely on accurate discharge data records. Establishing a reliable stage-discharge (SD) rating curve for calculating discharge from stage at a gauging station normally takes years of data collection efforts. Estimation of high flows is particularly difficult as high flows occur rarely and are often practically difficult to gauge. Hydraulically-modelled rating curves can be derived based on as few as two concurrent stage-discharge and water-surface slope measurements at different flow conditions. This means that a reliable rating curve can, potentially, be derived much faster than a traditional rating curve based on numerous stage-discharge gaugings. We introduce an uncertainty framework using hydraulic modelling for developing SD rating curves and estimating their uncertainties. The proposed framework incorporates information from both the hydraulic configuration (bed slope, roughness, vegetation) and the information available in the stage-discharge observation data (gaugings). This method provides a direct estimation of the hydraulic configuration (slope, bed roughness and vegetation roughness). Discharge time series are estimated propagating stage records through posterior rating curve results.We applied this novel method to two Swedish hydrometric stations, accounting for uncertainties in the gaugings for the hydraulic model. Results from these applications were compared to discharge measurements and official discharge estimations.Sensitivity analysis was performed. We focused analyses on high-flow uncertainty and the factors that could reduce this uncertainty. In particular, we investigated which data uncertainties were most important, and at what flow conditions the gaugings should preferably be taken.

Effect of sampling rate and record length on the determination of stability and control derivatives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brenner, M. J.; Iliff, K. W.; Whitman, R. K.

1978-01-01

Flight data from five aircraft were used to assess the effects of sampling rate and record length reductions on estimates of stability and control derivatives produced by a maximum likelihood estimation method. Derivatives could be extracted from flight data with the maximum likelihood estimation method even if there were considerable reductions in sampling rate and/or record length. Small amplitude pulse maneuvers showed greater degradation of the derivative maneuvers than large amplitude pulse maneuvers when these reductions were made. Reducing the sampling rate was found to be more desirable than reducing the record length as a method of lessening the total computation time required without greatly degrading the quantity of the estimates.

Improved Saturated Hydraulic Conductivity Pedotransfer Functions Using Machine Learning Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Araya, S. N.; Ghezzehei, T. A.

2017-12-01

Saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) is one of the fundamental hydraulic properties of soils. Its measurement, however, is cumbersome and instead pedotransfer functions (PTFs) are often used to estimate it. Despite a lot of progress over the years, generic PTFs that estimate hydraulic conductivity generally don't have a good performance. We develop significantly improved PTFs by applying state of the art machine learning techniques coupled with high-performance computing on a large database of over 20,000 soils—USKSAT and the Florida Soil Characterization databases. We compared the performance of four machine learning algorithms (k-nearest neighbors, gradient boosted model, support vector machine, and relevance vector machine) and evaluated the relative importance of several soil properties in explaining Ks. An attempt is also made to better account for soil structural properties; we evaluated the importance of variables derived from transformations of soil water retention characteristics and other soil properties. The gradient boosted models gave the best performance with root mean square errors less than 0.7 and mean errors in the order of 0.01 on a log scale of Ks [cm/h]. The effective particle size, D10, was found to be the single most important predictor. Other important predictors included percent clay, bulk density, organic carbon percent, coefficient of uniformity and values derived from water retention characteristics. Model performances were consistently better for Ks values greater than 10 cm/h. This study maximizes the extraction of information from a large database to develop generic machine learning based PTFs to estimate Ks. The study also evaluates the importance of various soil properties and their transformations in explaining Ks.

A variational technique to estimate snowfall rate from coincident radar, snowflake, and fall-speed observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooper, Steven J.; Wood, Norman B.; L'Ecuyer, Tristan S.

2017-07-01

Estimates of snowfall rate as derived from radar reflectivities alone are non-unique. Different combinations of snowflake microphysical properties and particle fall speeds can conspire to produce nearly identical snowfall rates for given radar reflectivity signatures. Such ambiguities can result in retrieval uncertainties on the order of 100-200 % for individual events. Here, we use observations of particle size distribution (PSD), fall speed, and snowflake habit from the Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera (MASC) to constrain estimates of snowfall derived from Ka-band ARM zenith radar (KAZR) measurements at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) North Slope Alaska (NSA) Climate Research Facility site at Barrow. MASC measurements of microphysical properties with uncertainties are introduced into a modified form of the optimal-estimation CloudSat snowfall algorithm (2C-SNOW-PROFILE) via the a priori guess and variance terms. Use of the MASC fall speed, MASC PSD, and CloudSat snow particle model as base assumptions resulted in retrieved total accumulations with a -18 % difference relative to nearby National Weather Service (NWS) observations over five snow events. The average error was 36 % for the individual events. Use of different but reasonable combinations of retrieval assumptions resulted in estimated snowfall accumulations with differences ranging from -64 to +122 % for the same storm events. Retrieved snowfall rates were particularly sensitive to assumed fall speed and habit, suggesting that in situ measurements can help to constrain key snowfall retrieval uncertainties. More accurate knowledge of these properties dependent upon location and meteorological conditions should help refine and improve ground- and space-based radar estimates of snowfall.

Improved arrival-date estimates of Arctic-breeding Dunlin (Calidris alpina arcticola)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doll, Andrew C.; Lanctot, Richard B.; Stricker, Craig A.; Yezerinac, Stephen M.; Wunder, Michael B.

2015-01-01

The use of stable isotopes in animal ecology depends on accurate descriptions of isotope dynamics within individuals. The prevailing assumption that laboratory-derived isotopic parameters apply to free-living animals is largely untested. We used stable carbon isotopes (δ13C) in whole blood from migratory Dunlin (Calidris alpina arcticola) to estimate an in situ turnover rate and individual diet-switch dates. Our in situ results indicated that turnover rates were higher in free-living birds, in comparison to the results of an experimental study on captive Dunlin and estimates derived from a theoretical allometric model. Diet-switch dates from all 3 methods were then used to estimate arrival dates to the Arctic; arrival dates calculated with the in situ turnover rate were later than those with the other turnover-rate estimates, substantially so in some cases. These later arrival dates matched dates when local snow conditions would have allowed Dunlin to settle, and agreed with anticipated arrival dates of Dunlin tracked with light-level geolocators. Our study presents a novel method for accurately estimating arrival dates for individuals of migratory species in which return dates are difficult to document. This may be particularly appropriate for species in which extrinsic tracking devices cannot easily be employed because of cost, body size, or behavioral constraints, and in habitats that do not allow individuals to be detected easily upon first arrival. Thus, this isotopic method offers an exciting alternative approach to better understand how species may be altering their arrival dates in response to changing climatic conditions.

Spatiotemporal interpolation of discharge across a river network by using synthetic SWOT satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paiva, Rodrigo C. D.; Durand, Michael T.; Hossain, Faisal

2015-01-01

Recent efforts have sought to estimate river discharge and other surface water-related quantities using spaceborne sensors, with better spatial coverage but worse temporal sampling as compared with in situ measurements. The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will provide river discharge estimates globally from space. However, questions on how to optimally use the spatially distributed but asynchronous satellite observations to generate continuous fields still exist. This paper presents a statistical model (River Kriging-RK), for estimating discharge time series in a river network in the context of the SWOT mission. RK uses discharge estimates at different locations and times to produce a continuous field using spatiotemporal kriging. A key component of RK is the space-time river discharge covariance, which was derived analytically from the diffusive wave approximation of Saint Venant's equations. The RK covariance also accounts for the loss of correlation at confluences. The model performed well in a case study on Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) River system in Bangladesh using synthetic SWOT observations. The correlation model reproduced empirically derived values. RK (R2=0.83) outperformed other kriging-based methods (R2=0.80), as well as a simple time series linear interpolation (R2=0.72). RK was used to combine discharge from SWOT and in situ observations, improving estimates when the latter is included (R2=0.91). The proposed statistical concepts may eventually provide a feasible framework to estimate continuous discharge time series across a river network based on SWOT data, other altimetry missions, and/or in situ data.

Improving global fire carbon emissions estimates by combining moderate resolution burned area and active fire observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randerson, J. T.; Chen, Y.; Giglio, L.; Rogers, B. M.; van der Werf, G.

2011-12-01

In several important biomes, including croplands and tropical forests, many small fires exist that have sizes that are well below the detection limit for the current generation of burned area products derived from moderate resolution spectroradiometers. These fires likely have important effects on greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions and regional air quality. Here we developed an approach for combining 1km thermal anomalies (active fires; MOD14A2) and 500m burned area observations (MCD64A1) to estimate the prevalence of these fires and their likely contribution to burned area and carbon emissions. We first estimated active fires within and outside of 500m burn scars in 0.5 degree grid cells during 2001-2010 for which MCD64A1 burned area observations were available. For these two sets of active fires we then examined mean fire radiative power (FRP) and changes in enhanced vegetation index (EVI) derived from 16-day intervals immediately before and after each active fire observation. To estimate the burned area associated with sub-500m fires, we first applied burned area to active fire ratios derived solely from within burned area perimeters to active fires outside of burn perimeters. In a second step, we further modified our sub-500m burned area estimates using EVI changes from active fires outside and within of burned areas (after subtracting EVI changes derived from control regions). We found that in northern and southern Africa savanna regions and in Central and South America dry forest regions, the number of active fires outside of MCD64A1 burned areas increased considerably towards the end of the fire season. EVI changes for active fires outside of burn perimeters were, on average, considerably smaller than EVI changes associated with active fires inside burn scars, providing evidence for burn scars that were substantially smaller than the 25 ha area of a single 500m pixel. FRP estimates also were lower for active fires outside of burn perimeters. In our analysis we quantified how including sub-500m burned area influenced global burned area, carbon emissions, and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in different continental regions using the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) biogeochemical model. We conclude by discussing validation needs using higher resolution visible and thermal imagery.

Direct Parametric Reconstruction With Joint Motion Estimation/Correction for Dynamic Brain PET Data.

PubMed

Jiao, Jieqing; Bousse, Alexandre; Thielemans, Kris; Burgos, Ninon; Weston, Philip S J; Schott, Jonathan M; Atkinson, David; Arridge, Simon R; Hutton, Brian F; Markiewicz, Pawel; Ourselin, Sebastien

2017-01-01

Direct reconstruction of parametric images from raw photon counts has been shown to improve the quantitative analysis of dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) data. However it suffers from subject motion which is inevitable during the typical acquisition time of 1-2 hours. In this work we propose a framework to jointly estimate subject head motion and reconstruct the motion-corrected parametric images directly from raw PET data, so that the effects of distorted tissue-to-voxel mapping due to subject motion can be reduced in reconstructing the parametric images with motion-compensated attenuation correction and spatially aligned temporal PET data. The proposed approach is formulated within the maximum likelihood framework, and efficient solutions are derived for estimating subject motion and kinetic parameters from raw PET photon count data. Results from evaluations on simulated [ 11 C]raclopride data using the Zubal brain phantom and real clinical [ 18 F]florbetapir data of a patient with Alzheimer's disease show that the proposed joint direct parametric reconstruction motion correction approach can improve the accuracy of quantifying dynamic PET data with large subject motion.

A Comparison of Growth Percentile and Value-Added Models of Teacher Performance. Working Paper #39

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guarino, Cassandra M.; Reckase, Mark D.; Stacy, Brian W.; Wooldridge, Jeffrey M.

2014-01-01

School districts and state departments of education frequently must choose between a variety of methods to estimating teacher quality. This paper examines under what circumstances the decision between estimators of teacher quality is important. We examine estimates derived from student growth percentile measures and estimates derived from commonly…

Role of Satellite Rainfall Information in Improving Understanding of the Dynamical Link Between the Tropics and Extratropics Prospects of Improved Forecasts of Weather and Short-Term Climate Variability on Sub-Seasonal Time Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hou, Arthur Y.

2002-01-01

The tropics and extratropics are two dynamically distinct regimes. The coupling between these two regimes often defies simple analytical treatment. Progress in understanding of the dynamical interaction between the tropics and extratropics relies on better observational descriptions to guide theoretical development. However, global analyses currently contain significant errors in primary hydrological variables such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and clouds, especially in the tropics. Tropical analyses have been shown to be sensitive to parameterized precipitation processes, which are less than perfect, leading to order-one discrepancies between estimates produced by different data assimilation systems. One strategy for improvement is to assimilate rainfall observations to constrain the analysis and reduce uncertainties in variables physically linked to precipitation. At the Data Assimilation Office at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, we have been exploring the use of tropical rain rates derived from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments in global data assimilation. Results show that assimilating these data improves not only rainfall and moisture fields but also related climate parameters such as clouds and radiation, as well as the large-scale circulation and short-range forecasts. These studies suggest that assimilation of microwave rainfall observations from space has the potential to significantly improve the quality of 4-D assimilated datasets for climate investigations (Hou et al. 2001). In the next few years, there will be a gradual increase in microwave rain products available from operational and research satellites, culminating to a target constellation of 9 satellites to provide global rain measurements every 3 hours with the proposed Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission in 2007. Continued improvements in assimilation methodology, rainfall error estimates, and model parameterizations are needed to ensure that we derive maximum benefits from these observations.

Replica and extreme-value analysis of the Jarzynski free-energy estimator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palassini, Matteo; Ritort, Felix

2008-03-01

We analyze the Jarzynski estimator of free-energy differences from nonequilibrium work measurements. By a simple mapping onto Derrida's Random Energy Model, we obtain a scaling limit for the expectation of the bias of the estimator. We then derive analytical approximations in three different regimes of the scaling parameter x = log(N)/W, where N is the number of measurements and W the mean dissipated work. Our approach is valid for a generic distribution of the dissipated work, and is based on a replica symmetry breaking scheme for x >> 1, the asymptotic theory of extreme value statistics for x << 1, and a direct approach for x near one. The combination of the three analytic approximations describes well Monte Carlo data for the expectation value of the estimator, for a wide range of values of N, from N=1 to large N, and for different work distributions. Based on these results, we introduce improved free-energy estimators and discuss the application to the analysis of experimental data.

Blood flow estimation in gastroscopic true-color images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacoby, Raffael S.; Herpers, Rainer; Zwiebel, Franz M.; Englmeier, Karl-Hans

1995-05-01

The assessment of blood flow in the gastrointestinal mucosa might be an important factor for the diagnosis and treatment of several diseases such as ulcers, gastritis, colitis, or early cancer. The quantity of blood flow is roughly estimated by computing the spatial hemoglobin distribution in the mucosa. The presented method enables a practical realization by calculating approximately the hemoglobin concentration based on a spectrophotometric analysis of endoscopic true-color images, which are recorded during routine examinations. A system model based on the reflectance spectroscopic law of Kubelka-Munk is derived which enables an estimation of the hemoglobin concentration by means of the color values of the images. Additionally, a transformation of the color values is developed in order to improve the luminance independence. Applying this transformation and estimating the hemoglobin concentration for each pixel of interest, the hemoglobin distribution can be computed. The obtained results are mostly independent of luminance. An initial validation of the presented method is performed by a quantitative estimation of the reproducibility.

Estimating distributions with increasing failure rate in an imperfect repair model.

PubMed

Kvam, Paul H; Singh, Harshinder; Whitaker, Lyn R

2002-03-01

A failed system is repaired minimally if after failure, it is restored to the working condition of an identical system of the same age. We extend the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of a system's lifetime distribution function to test units that are known to have an increasing failure rate. Such items comprise a significant portion of working components in industry. The order-restricted MLE is shown to be consistent. Similar results hold for the Brown-Proschan imperfect repair model, which dictates that a failed component is repaired perfectly with some unknown probability, and is otherwise repaired minimally. The estimators derived are motivated and illustrated by failure data in the nuclear industry. Failure times for groups of emergency diesel generators and motor-driven pumps are analyzed using the order-restricted methods. The order-restricted estimators are consistent and show distinct differences from the ordinary MLEs. Simulation results suggest significant improvement in reliability estimation is available in many cases when component failure data exhibit the IFR property.

On the more accurate channel model and positioning based on time-of-arrival for visible light localization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amini, Changeez; Taherpour, Abbas; Khattab, Tamer; Gazor, Saeed

2017-01-01

This paper presents an improved propagation channel model for the visible light in indoor environments. We employ this model to derive an enhanced positioning algorithm using on the relation between the time-of-arrivals (TOAs) and the distances for two cases either by assuming known or unknown transmitter and receiver vertical distances. We propose two estimators, namely the maximum likelihood estimator and an estimator by employing the method of moments. To have an evaluation basis for these methods, we calculate the Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB) for the performance of the estimations. We show that the proposed model and estimations result in a superior performance in positioning when the transmitter and receiver are perfectly synchronized in comparison to the existing state-of-the-art counterparts. Moreover, the corresponding CRLB of the proposed model represents almost about 20 dB reduction in the localization error bound in comparison with the previous model for some practical scenarios.

Cloning by limiting dilution: an improved estimate that an interesting culture is monoclonal.

PubMed Central

Staszewski, R.

1984-01-01

An interesting culture obtained by limiting dilution is less likely to be monoclonal than a random viable culture. Current practice using limiting dilution to establish monoclonal lines of interesting recombinant DNA or hybridoma-derived organisms overestimates the probability that promising cultures are monoclonal, resulting in inadequate dilutions, with the need for additional subcloning and the avoidable loss (avoidable instability) of interesting lines by overgrowth with uninteresting varieties. PMID:6537695

Multi-epoch very long baseline interferometric observations of the nuclear starburst region of NGC 253: Improved modeling of the supernova and star formation rates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rampadarath, H.; Morgan, J. S.; Tingay, S. J.

2014-01-01

The results of multi-epoch observations of the southern starburst galaxy, NGC 253, with the Australian Long Baseline Array at 2.3 GHz are presented. As with previous radio interferometric observations of this galaxy, no new sources were discovered. By combining the results of this survey with Very Large Array observations at higher frequencies from the literature, spectra were derived and a free-free absorption model was fitted of 20 known sources in NGC 253. The results were found to be consistent with previous studies. The supernova remnant, 5.48-43.3, was imaged with the highest sensitivity and resolution to date, revealing a two-lobed morphology.more » Comparisons with previous observations of similar resolution give an upper limit of 10{sup 4} km s{sup –1} for the expansion speed of this remnant. We derive a supernova rate of <0.2 yr{sup –1} for the inner 300 pc using a model that improves on previous methods by incorporating an improved radio supernova peak luminosity distribution and by making use of multi-wavelength radio data spanning 21 yr. A star formation rate of SFR(M ≥ 5 M {sub ☉}) < 4.9 M {sub ☉} yr{sup –1} was also estimated using the standard relation between supernova and star formation rates. Our improved estimates of supernova and star formation rates are consistent with studies at other wavelengths. The results of our study point to the possible existence of a small population of undetected supernova remnants, suggesting a low rate of radio supernova production in NGC 253.« less

An Improved GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Assimilation System For Estimating Large-Scale Soil Moisture and Shallow Groundwater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girotto, M.; De Lannoy, G. J. M.; Reichle, R. H.; Rodell, M.

2015-12-01

The Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission is unique because it provides highly accurate column integrated estimates of terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations. Major limitations of GRACE-based TWS observations are related to their monthly temporal and coarse spatial resolution (around 330 km at the equator), and to the vertical integration of the water storage components. These challenges can be addressed through data assimilation. To date, it is still not obvious how best to assimilate GRACE-TWS observations into a land surface model, in order to improve hydrological variables, and many details have yet to be worked out. This presentation discusses specific recent features of the assimilation of gridded GRACE-TWS data into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) Catchment land surface model to improve soil moisture and shallow groundwater estimates at the continental scale. The major recent advancements introduced by the presented work with respect to earlier systems include: 1) the assimilation of gridded GRACE-TWS data product with scaling factors that are specifically derived for data assimilation purposes only; 2) the assimilation is performed through a 3D assimilation scheme, in which reasonable spatial and temporal error standard deviations and correlations are exploited; 3) the analysis step uses an optimized calculation and application of the analysis increments; 4) a poor-man's adaptive estimation of a spatially variable measurement error. This work shows that even if they are characterized by a coarse spatial and temporal resolution, the observed column integrated GRACE-TWS data have potential for improving our understanding of soil moisture and shallow groundwater variations.

Mechanistic Modeling of Hemoglobin Glycation and Red Blood Cell Kinetics Enables Personalized Diabetes Monitoring

PubMed Central

Malka, Roy; Nathan, David M.; Higgins, John M.

2017-01-01

The glycated hemoglobin assay (HbA1c) is essential for the diagnosis and management of diabetes because it provides the best estimate of a patient’s average blood glucose (AG) over the preceding 2–3 months and is the best predictor of disease complications. However, there is substantial unexplained glucose-independent variation in HbA1c that makes AG estimation inaccurate and limits the precision of medical care for diabetics. The true AG of a non-diabetic and a poorly-controlled diabetic may differ by less than 15 mg/dL, but patients with identical HbA1c and thus identical HbA1c-based estimates of AG may have true AG that differs by more than 60 mg/dl. We combine a mechanistic mathematical model of hemoglobin glycation and red blood cell flux with large sets of intra-patient glucose measurements to derive patient-specific estimates of non-glycemic determinants of HbA1c including mean red blood cell age (MRBC). We find that interpatient variation in derived MRBC explains all glucose-independent variation in HbA1c. We then use our model to personalize prospective estimates of AG and reduce errors by more than 50% in four independent sets of more than 200 patients. The current standard of care provided AG estimates with errors > 15 mg/dL for 1 in 3 patients. Our patient-specific method reduced this error rate to 1 in 10. This personalized approach to estimating AG from HbA1c should improve medical care for diabetes using existing clinical measurements. PMID:27708063

Automation of workplace lifting hazard assessment for musculoskeletal injury prevention.

PubMed

Spector, June T; Lieblich, Max; Bao, Stephen; McQuade, Kevin; Hughes, Margaret

2014-01-01

Existing methods for practically evaluating musculoskeletal exposures such as posture and repetition in workplace settings have limitations. We aimed to automate the estimation of parameters in the revised United States National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) lifting equation, a standard manual observational tool used to evaluate back injury risk related to lifting in workplace settings, using depth camera (Microsoft Kinect) and skeleton algorithm technology. A large dataset (approximately 22,000 frames, derived from six subjects) of simultaneous lifting and other motions recorded in a laboratory setting using the Kinect (Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, Washington, United States) and a standard optical motion capture system (Qualysis, Qualysis Motion Capture Systems, Qualysis AB, Sweden) was assembled. Error-correction regression models were developed to improve the accuracy of NIOSH lifting equation parameters estimated from the Kinect skeleton. Kinect-Qualysis errors were modelled using gradient boosted regression trees with a Huber loss function. Models were trained on data from all but one subject and tested on the excluded subject. Finally, models were tested on three lifting trials performed by subjects not involved in the generation of the model-building dataset. Error-correction appears to produce estimates for NIOSH lifting equation parameters that are more accurate than those derived from the Microsoft Kinect algorithm alone. Our error-correction models substantially decreased the variance of parameter errors. In general, the Kinect underestimated parameters, and modelling reduced this bias, particularly for more biased estimates. Use of the raw Kinect skeleton model tended to result in falsely high safe recommended weight limits of loads, whereas error-corrected models gave more conservative, protective estimates. Our results suggest that it may be possible to produce reasonable estimates of posture and temporal elements of tasks such as task frequency in an automated fashion, although these findings should be confirmed in a larger study. Further work is needed to incorporate force assessments and address workplace feasibility challenges. We anticipate that this approach could ultimately be used to perform large-scale musculoskeletal exposure assessment not only for research but also to provide real-time feedback to workers and employers during work method improvement activities and employee training.

Derivation of Sky-View Factors from LIDAR Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kidd, Christopher; Chapman, Lee

2013-01-01

The use of Lidar (Light Detection and Ranging), an active light-emitting instrument, is becoming increasingly common for a range of potential applications. Its ability to provide fine resolution spatial and vertical resolution elevation data makes it ideal for a wide range of studies. This paper demonstrates the capability of Lidar data to measure sky view factors (SVF). The Lidar data is used to generate a spatial map of SVFs which are then compared against photographically-derived SVF at selected point locations. At each location three near-surface elevations measurements were taken and compared with collocated Lidar-derived estimated. It was found that there was generally good agreement between the two methodologies, although with decreasing SVF the Lidar-derived technique tended to overestimate the SVF: this can be attributed in part to the spatial resolution of the Lidar sampling. Nevertheless, airborne Lidar systems can map sky view factors over a large area easily, improving the utility of such data in atmospheric and meteorological models.

Model-based cartilage thickness measurement in the submillimeter range

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Streekstra, G. J.; Strackee, S. D.; Maas, M.

2007-09-15

Current methods of image-based thickness measurement in thin sheet structures utilize second derivative zero crossings to locate the layer boundaries. It is generally acknowledged that the nonzero width of the point spread function (PSF) limits the accuracy of this measurement procedure. We propose a model-based method that strongly reduces PSF-induced bias by incorporating the PSF into the thickness estimation method. We estimated the bias in thickness measurements in simulated thin sheet images as obtained from second derivative zero crossings. To gain insight into the range of sheet thickness where our method is expected to yield improved results, sheet thickness wasmore » varied between 0.15 and 1.2 mm with an assumed PSF as present in the high-resolution modes of current computed tomography (CT) scanners [full width at half maximum (FWHM) 0.5-0.8 mm]. Our model-based method was evaluated in practice by measuring layer thickness from CT images of a phantom mimicking two parallel cartilage layers in an arthrography procedure. CT arthrography images of cadaver wrists were also evaluated, and thickness estimates were compared to those obtained from high-resolution anatomical sections that served as a reference. The thickness estimates from the simulated images reveal that the method based on second derivative zero crossings shows considerable bias for layers in the submillimeter range. This bias is negligible for sheet thickness larger than 1 mm, where the size of the sheet is more than twice the FWHM of the PSF but can be as large as 0.2 mm for a 0.5 mm sheet. The results of the phantom experiments show that the bias is effectively reduced by our method. The deviations from the true thickness, due to random fluctuations induced by quantum noise in the CT images, are of the order of 3% for a standard wrist imaging protocol. In the wrist the submillimeter thickness estimates from the CT arthrography images correspond within 10% to those estimated from the anatomical sections. We present a method that yields virtually unbiased thickness estimates of cartilage layers in the submillimeter range. The good agreement of thickness estimates from CT images with estimates from anatomical sections is promising for clinical application of the method in cartilage integrity staging of the wrist and the ankle.« less

Reduced-rank technique for joint channel estimation in TD-SCDMA systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamil Marzook, Ali; Ismail, Alyani; Mohd Ali, Borhanuddin; Sali, Adawati; Khatun, Sabira

2013-02-01

In time division-synchronous code division multiple access systems, increasing the system capacity by exploiting the inserting of the largest number of users in one time slot (TS) requires adding more estimation processes to estimate the joint channel matrix for the whole system. The increase in the number of channel parameters due the increase in the number of users in one TS directly affects the precision of the estimator's performance. This article presents a novel channel estimation with low complexity, which relies on reducing the rank order of the total channel matrix H. The proposed method exploits the rank deficiency of H to reduce the number of parameters that characterise this matrix. The adopted reduced-rank technique is based on truncated singular value decomposition algorithm. The algorithms for reduced-rank joint channel estimation (JCE) are derived and compared against traditional full-rank JCEs: least squares (LS) or Steiner and enhanced (LS or MMSE) algorithms. Simulation results of the normalised mean square error showed the superiority of reduced-rank estimators. In addition, the channel impulse responses founded by reduced-rank estimator for all active users offers considerable performance improvement over the conventional estimator along the channel window length.

Secure Fusion Estimation for Bandwidth Constrained Cyber-Physical Systems Under Replay Attacks.

PubMed

Chen, Bo; Ho, Daniel W C; Hu, Guoqiang; Yu, Li; Bo Chen; Ho, Daniel W C; Guoqiang Hu; Li Yu; Chen, Bo; Ho, Daniel W C; Hu, Guoqiang; Yu, Li

2018-06-01

State estimation plays an essential role in the monitoring and supervision of cyber-physical systems (CPSs), and its importance has made the security and estimation performance a major concern. In this case, multisensor information fusion estimation (MIFE) provides an attractive alternative to study secure estimation problems because MIFE can potentially improve estimation accuracy and enhance reliability and robustness against attacks. From the perspective of the defender, the secure distributed Kalman fusion estimation problem is investigated in this paper for a class of CPSs under replay attacks, where each local estimate obtained by the sink node is transmitted to a remote fusion center through bandwidth constrained communication channels. A new mathematical model with compensation strategy is proposed to characterize the replay attacks and bandwidth constrains, and then a recursive distributed Kalman fusion estimator (DKFE) is designed in the linear minimum variance sense. According to different communication frameworks, two classes of data compression and compensation algorithms are developed such that the DKFEs can achieve the desired performance. Several attack-dependent and bandwidth-dependent conditions are derived such that the DKFEs are secure under replay attacks. An illustrative example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Global estimates of country health indicators: useful, unnecessary, inevitable?

PubMed Central

AbouZahr, Carla; Boerma, Ties; Hogan, Daniel

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: The MDG era relied on global health estimates to fill data gaps and ensure temporal and cross-country comparability in reporting progress. Monitoring the Sustainable Development Goals will present new challenges, requiring enhanced capacities to generate, analyse, interpret and use country produced data. Objective: To summarize the development of global health estimates and discuss their utility and limitations from global and country perspectives. Design: Descriptive paper based on findings of intercountry workshops, reviews of literatureon and synthesis of experiences. Results: Producers of global health estimates focus on the technical soundness of estimation methods and comparability of the results across countries and over time. By contrast, country users are more concerned about the extent of their involvement in the estimation process and hesitate to buy into estimates derived using methods their technical staff cannot explain and that differ from national data sources. Quantitative summaries of uncertainty may be of limited practical use in policy discussions where decisions need to be made about what to do next. Conclusions: Greater transparency and involvement of country partners in the development of global estimates will help improve ownership, strengthen country capacities for data production and use, and reduce reliance on externally produced estimates. PMID:28532307

Earth Core and Inner Core: What Can We Learn From a Bayesian Inversion of Combined Nutation and Surface Gravimetry Data?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lambert, S. B.; Ziegler, Y.; Rosat, S.; Bizouard, C.

2017-12-01

Nutation time series derived from very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) and time varying surface gravity data recorded by superconducting gravimeters (SG) have long been used separately to assess the Earth's interior via the estimation of the free core and inner core resonance effects on nutation or tidal gravity. The results obtained from these two techniques have shown recently to be consistent, making relevant the combination of VLBI and SG observables and the estimation of Earth's interior parameters in a single inversion. We present here the results of combining nutation and surface gravity time series to improve estimates of the Earth's core and inner core resonant frequencies. We use VLBI nutation time series spanning 1984-2016 derived by several analysis centers affiliated to the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry, together with surface gravity data from about 15 SG stations. We address the resonance model used for describing the Earth's interior response to tidal excitation, the data preparation consisting of the error recalibration and amplitude fitting to nutation data, and processing of SG time-varying gravity to remove any gaps, spikes, steps and other disturbances, followed by the tidal analysis with the ETERNA 3.4 software package. New estimates of the resonant periods are proposed and correlations between the parameters are investigated.

Estimating spring terminus submarine melt rates at a Greenlandic tidewater glacier using satellite imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moyer, Alexis N.; Nienow, Peter W.; Gourmelen, Noel; Sole, Andrew J.; Slater, Donald A.

2017-12-01

Oceanic forcing of the Greenland Ice Sheet is believed to promote widespread thinning at tidewater glaciers, with submarine melting proposed as a potential trigger of increased glacier calving, retreat, and subsequent acceleration. The precise mechanism(s) driving glacier instability, however, remain poorly understood, and while increasing evidence points to the importance of submarine melting, estimates of melt rates are uncertain. Here we estimate submarine melt rate by examining freeboard changes in the seasonal ice tongue of Kangiata Nunaata Sermia at the head of Kangersuneq Fjord, southwest Greenland. We calculate melt rates for March and May 2013 by differencing along-fjord surface elevation, derived from high-resolution TanDEM-X digital elevation models, in combination with ice velocities derived from offset tracking applied to TerraSAR-X imagery. Estimated steady state melt rates reach up to 1.4 ± 0.5 m d^-1 near the glacier grounding line, with mean values of up to 0.8 ± 0.3 and 0.7 ± 0.3 m d^1 for the eastern and western parts of the ice tongue, respectively. Melt rates decrease with distance from the ice front and vary across the fjord. This methodology reveals spatio-temporal variations in submarine melt rates at tidewater glaciers which develop floating termini, and can be used to improve our understanding of ice-ocean interactions and submarine melting in glacial fjords.

Genetic markers enhance coronary risk prediction in men: the MORGAM prospective cohorts.

PubMed

Hughes, Maria F; Saarela, Olli; Stritzke, Jan; Kee, Frank; Silander, Kaisa; Klopp, Norman; Kontto, Jukka; Karvanen, Juha; Willenborg, Christina; Salomaa, Veikko; Virtamo, Jarmo; Amouyel, Phillippe; Arveiler, Dominique; Ferrières, Jean; Wiklund, Per-Gunner; Baumert, Jens; Thorand, Barbara; Diemert, Patrick; Trégouët, David-Alexandre; Hengstenberg, Christian; Peters, Annette; Evans, Alun; Koenig, Wolfgang; Erdmann, Jeanette; Samani, Nilesh J; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Schunkert, Heribert

2012-01-01

More accurate coronary heart disease (CHD) prediction, specifically in middle-aged men, is needed to reduce the burden of disease more effectively. We hypothesised that a multilocus genetic risk score could refine CHD prediction beyond classic risk scores and obtain more precise risk estimates using a prospective cohort design. Using data from nine prospective European cohorts, including 26,221 men, we selected in a case-cohort setting 4,818 healthy men at baseline, and used Cox proportional hazards models to examine associations between CHD and risk scores based on genetic variants representing 13 genomic regions. Over follow-up (range: 5-18 years), 1,736 incident CHD events occurred. Genetic risk scores were validated in men with at least 10 years of follow-up (632 cases, 1361 non-cases). Genetic risk score 1 (GRS1) combined 11 SNPs and two haplotypes, with effect estimates from previous genome-wide association studies. GRS2 combined 11 SNPs plus 4 SNPs from the haplotypes with coefficients estimated from these prospective cohorts using 10-fold cross-validation. Scores were added to a model adjusted for classic risk factors comprising the Framingham risk score and 10-year risks were derived. Both scores improved net reclassification (NRI) over the Framingham score (7.5%, p = 0.017 for GRS1, 6.5%, p = 0.044 for GRS2) but GRS2 also improved discrimination (c-index improvement 1.11%, p = 0.048). Subgroup analysis on men aged 50-59 (436 cases, 603 non-cases) improved net reclassification for GRS1 (13.8%) and GRS2 (12.5%). Net reclassification improvement remained significant for both scores when family history of CHD was added to the baseline model for this male subgroup improving prediction of early onset CHD events. Genetic risk scores add precision to risk estimates for CHD and improve prediction beyond classic risk factors, particularly for middle aged men.

Retrieving improved multi-temporal CryoSat elevations over ice caps and glaciers - a case study of Barnes ice cap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilsson, Johan; Burgess, David

2014-05-01

The CryoSat mission was launched in 2010 to observe the Earth's cryosphere. In contrast to previous satellite radar altimeters, this mission is expected to monitor the elevation of small ice caps and glaciers, which according to the IPCC will be the largest contributor to 21st century sea level rise. To date the ESA CryoSat SARiN level-2 (L2) elevation product is not yet fully optimized for use over these types of glaciated regions, as its processed with a more universal algorithm. Thus the aim of this study is to demonstrate that with the use of improved processing CryoSat SARiN data can be used for more accurate topography mapping and elevation change detection for ice caps and glaciers. To demonstrate this, elevations and elevation changes over Barnes ice cap, located on Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic, have been estimated from available data from the years 2010-2013. ESA's CryoSat level-1b (L1b) SARiN baseline "B" data product was used and processed in-house to estimate surface elevations. The resulting product is referred to as DTU-L2. The processing focused on improving the retracker, reducing phase noise and correcting phase ambiguities. The accuracy of the DTU-L2 and the ESA-L2 product was determined by comparing the measured elevations against NASA's IceBridge Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) elevations from May 2011. The resulting difference in accuracy was determined by comparing their associated errors. From the multi-temporal measurements spanning the period 2010-2013, elevation changes where estimated and compared to ICESat derived changes from 2003-2009. The result of the study shows good agreement between the NASA measured ATM elevations and the DTU-L2 data. It also shows that the pattern of elevation change is similar to that derived from ICESat data. The accuracy of the DTU-L2 estimated elevations is on average several factors higher compared to the ESA-L2 elevation product. These preliminary results demonstrates that CryoSat elevation data, using improved processing, can be used for accurate topographic mapping and elevation change detection on ice caps and glaciers. Future work would entail extending this processing to other regions of this type to support these results.

Carbon cycling of European croplands: A framework for the assimilation of optical and microwave Earth observation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Revill, Andrew; Sus, Oliver; Williams, Mathew

2013-04-01

Croplands are traditionally managed to maximise the production of food, feed, fibre and bioenergy. Advancements in agricultural technologies, together with land-use change, have approximately doubled World grain harvests over the past 50 years. Cropland ecosystems also play a significant role in the global carbon (C) cycle and, through changes to C storage in response to management activities, they can provide opportunities for climate change mitigation. However, quantifying and understanding the cropland C cycle is complex, due to variable environmental drivers, varied management practices and often highly heterogeneous landscapes. Efforts to upscale processes using simulation models must resolve these challenges. Here we show how data assimilation (DA) approaches can link C cycle modelling to Earth observation (EO) and reduce uncertainty in upscaling. We evaluate a framework for the assimilation of leaf area index (LAI) time series, empirically derived from EO optical and radar sensors, for state-updating a model of crop development and C fluxes. Sensors are selected with fine spatial resolutions (20-50 m) to resolve variability across field sizes typically used in European agriculture. Sequential DA is used to improve the canopy development simulation, which is validated by comparing time-series LAI and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) predictions to independent ground measurements and eddy covariance observations at multiple European cereal crop sites. Significant empirical relationships were established between the LAI ground measurements and the optical reflectance and radar backscatter, which allowed for single LAI calibrations being valid for all the cropland sites for each sensor. The DA of all EO LAI estimates results indicated clear adjustments in LAI and an enhanced representation of daily CO2 exchanges, particularly around the time of peak C uptake. Compared to the simulation without DA, the assimilation of all EO LAI estimates improved the predicted at-harvest cumulative NEE for all cropland sites by an average of 69%. The use of radar sensors, being relatively unaffected by cloud cover and sensitive to the structural properties of the crop, significantly improves the analyses when compared to the combined, and individual, use of the optical LAI estimates. When assimilating the radar derived LAI only, the estimated at-harvest cumulative NEE was improved by 79% when compared to the simulation without DA. Future developments would include the spatial upscaling of the existing model framework and the assimilation of additional state variables, such as soil moisture.

Leaf Chlorophyll Content as a Proxy for Photosynthetic Parameters for Estimating Carbon and Water Fluxes at a Forest Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, X.; Croft, H.; Chen, J.; Bartlett, P. A.; Staebler, R. M.; Froelich, N.

2016-12-01

Chlorophyll is the main light-harvesting pigment in leaves to support photosynthesis and also reflects the seasonal variations in the supply of nitrogen for photosynthetic enzymes. In this study, we explore the feasibility of using leaf chlorophyll content (Chlleaf) as a proxy for the leaf maximum carbonxylation rate at 25 °C ( ) for the purpose of improving carbon and water cycle estimation. Measurements of Chlleaf and were made in a decidous forest stand near Borden in Northern Ontario, Canada, which was equiped with eddy covariance instruments for measuring carbon and water fluxes. Based on the measurements from four broadleaf deciduous species, a linear relationship is develoepd between Chlleaf and . Compared to the prescribed constant values, derived from Chlleaf shows pronounced seasonal variations and improves the simulations of GPP and ET by 5% and 3%, respectively. The most significant improvements are found in spring and fall, when the errors in modelled GPP are reduced from 4.71 to 0.69 g/m2/day and from 2.4 to 1.16 g/m2/day, respecively. Errors in ET estimation are correspondingly reduced from 0.85 to 0.61 mm/day and from 0.40 to 0.33 mm/day in spring and autumn, respectively. A two-leaf upscaling scheme was used to account for the uneven distribution of incoming solar irradiance inside canopies and the accompanied physiological differences between leaves. One μg/cm2 of Chlleaf corresponds to 1.3 and 0.77 μmol/m2/s of in sunlit leaves and shaded leaves, respectively. The seasonal average rate of photosynthesis, transpiration, water use efficiency and light use efficiency of sunlit leaves are 2.7, 15, 0.19 and 0.3 times those of shaded leaves. For the first time, this sutdy incorporates chlorophyll in terrestrial biosphere models at a forest stand. Since it is feasible to derive leaf chlorophyll information using remote sensing means, this study would have profound implications on large-scale carbon and water fluxes estimation.

Identifying Optimal Temporal Scale for the Correlation of AOD and Ground Measurements of PM2.5 to Improve the Modeling Performance in a Real-Time Air Quality Estimation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li,Hui; Faruque, Fazlay; Williams, Worth; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad; Luvall, Jeffrey; Crosson, William; Rickman, Douglas; Limaye, Ashutosh

2008-01-01

Aerosol optical depth (AOD), derived from satellite measurements using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS), offers indirect estimates of particle matter. Research shows a significant positive correlation between satellite-based measurements of AOD and ground-based measurements of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5). In addition, satellite observations have also shown great promise in improving estimates of PM2.5 air quality surface. Research shows that correlations between AOD and ground PM2.5 are affected by a combination of many factors such as inherent characteristics of satellite observations, terrain, cloud cover, height of the mixing layer, and weather conditions, and thus might vary widely in different regions, different seasons, and even different days in a same location. Analysis of correlating AOD with ground measured PM2.5 on a day-to-day basis suggests the temporal scale, a number of immediate latest days for a given run's day, for their correlations needs to be considered to improve air quality surface estimates, especially when satellite observations are used in a real-time pollution system. The second reason is that correlation coefficients between AOD and ground PM2.5 cannot be predetermined and needs to be calculated for each day's run for a real-time system because the coefficients can vary over space and time. Few studies have been conducted to explore the optimal way to apply AOD data to improve model accuracies of PM2.5 surface estimation in a real-time air quality system. This paper discusses the best temporal scale to calculate the correlation of AOD and ground particle matter data to improve the results of pollution models in real-time system.

An Approach to Unbiased Subsample Interpolation for Motion Tracking

PubMed Central

McCormick, Matthew M.; Varghese, Tomy

2013-01-01

Accurate subsample displacement estimation is necessary for ultrasound elastography because of the small deformations that occur and the subsequent application of a derivative operation on local displacements. Many of the commonly used subsample estimation techniques introduce significant bias errors. This article addresses a reduced bias approach to subsample displacement estimations that consists of a two-dimensional windowed-sinc interpolation with numerical optimization. It is shown that a Welch or Lanczos window with a Nelder–Mead simplex or regular-step gradient-descent optimization is well suited for this purpose. Little improvement results from a sinc window radius greater than four data samples. The strain signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) obtained in a uniformly elastic phantom is compared with other parabolic and cosine interpolation methods; it is found that the strain SNR ratio is improved over parabolic interpolation from 11.0 to 13.6 in the axial direction and 0.7 to 1.1 in the lateral direction for an applied 1% axial deformation. The improvement was most significant for small strains and displacement tracking in the lateral direction. This approach does not rely on special properties of the image or similarity function, which is demonstrated by its effectiveness with the application of a previously described regularization technique. PMID:23493609

Derivation of a northern-hemispheric biomass map for use in global carbon cycle models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thurner, Martin; Beer, Christian; Santoro, Maurizio; Carvalhais, Nuno; Wutzler, Thomas; Schepaschenko, Dmitry; Shvidenko, Anatoly; Kompter, Elisabeth; Levick, Shaun; Schmullius, Christiane

2013-04-01

Quantifying the state and the change of the World's forests is crucial because of their ecological, social and economic value. Concerning their ecological importance, forests provide important feedbacks on the global carbon, energy and water cycles. In addition to their influence on albedo and evapotranspiration, they have the potential to sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide and thus to mitigate global warming. The current state and inter-annual variability of forest carbon stocks remain relatively unexplored, but remote sensing can serve to overcome this shortcoming. While for the tropics wall-to-wall estimates of above-ground biomass have been recently published, up to now there was a lack of similar products covering boreal and temperate forests. Recently, estimates of forest growing stock volume (GSV) were derived from ENVISAT ASAR C-band data for latitudes above 30° N. Utilizing a wood density and a biomass compartment database, a forest carbon density map covering North-America, Europe and Asia with 0.01° resolution could be derived out of this dataset. Allometric functions between stem, branches, root and foliage biomass were fitted and applied for different leaf types (broadleaf, needleleaf deciduous, needleleaf evergreen forest). Additionally, this method enabled uncertainty estimation of the resulting carbon density map. Intercomparisons with inventory-based biomass products in Russia, Europe and the USA proved the high accuracy of this approach at a regional scale (r2 = 0.70 - 0.90). Based on the final biomass map, the forest carbon stocks and densities (excluding understorey vegetation) for three biomes were estimated across three continents. While 40.7 ± 15.7 Gt of carbon were found to be stored in boreal forests, temperate broadleaf/mixed forests and temperate conifer forests contain 24.5 ± 9.4 Gt(C) and 14.5 ± 4.8 Gt(C), respectively. In terms of carbon density, most of the carbon per area is stored in temperate conifer (62.1 ± 20.7 Mg(C)/ha(Forest)) and broadleaf/mixed forests (58.0 ± 22.1 Mg(C)/ha(Forest)), whereas boreal forests have a carbon density of only 40.0 ± 15.4 Mg(C)/ha(Forest). While European forest carbon stocks are relatively small, the carbon density is higher compared to the other continents. The derived biomass map substantially improves the knowledge on the current carbon stocks of the northern-hemispheric boreal and temperate forests, serving as a new benchmark for spatially explicit and consistent biomass mapping with moderate spatial resolution. This product can be of great value for global carbon cycle models as well as national carbon monitoring systems. Further investigations concentrate on improving biomass parameterizations and representations in such kind of models. The presented map will help to improve the simulation of biomass spatial patterns and variability and enables identifying the dominant influential factors like climatic conditions and disturbances.

Improving the accuracy of Laplacian estimation with novel multipolar concentric ring electrodes

PubMed Central

Ding, Quan; Besio, Walter G.

2015-01-01

Conventional electroencephalography with disc electrodes has major drawbacks including poor spatial resolution, selectivity and low signal-to-noise ratio that are critically limiting its use. Concentric ring electrodes, consisting of several elements including the central disc and a number of concentric rings, are a promising alternative with potential to improve all of the aforementioned aspects significantly. In our previous work, the tripolar concentric ring electrode was successfully used in a wide range of applications demonstrating its superiority to conventional disc electrode, in particular, in accuracy of Laplacian estimation. This paper takes the next step toward further improving the Laplacian estimation with novel multipolar concentric ring electrodes by completing and validating a general approach to estimation of the Laplacian for an (n + 1)-polar electrode with n rings using the (4n + 1)-point method for n ≥ 2 that allows cancellation of all the truncation terms up to the order of 2n. An explicit formula based on inversion of a square Vandermonde matrix is derived to make computation of multipolar Laplacian more efficient. To confirm the analytic result of the accuracy of Laplacian estimate increasing with the increase of n and to assess the significance of this gain in accuracy for practical applications finite element method model analysis has been performed. Multipolar concentric ring electrode configurations with n ranging from 1 ring (bipolar electrode configuration) to 6 rings (septapolar electrode configuration) were directly compared and obtained results suggest the significance of the increase in Laplacian accuracy caused by increase of n. PMID:26693200

Improving the accuracy of Laplacian estimation with novel multipolar concentric ring electrodes.

PubMed

Makeyev, Oleksandr; Ding, Quan; Besio, Walter G

2016-02-01

Conventional electroencephalography with disc electrodes has major drawbacks including poor spatial resolution, selectivity and low signal-to-noise ratio that are critically limiting its use. Concentric ring electrodes, consisting of several elements including the central disc and a number of concentric rings, are a promising alternative with potential to improve all of the aforementioned aspects significantly. In our previous work, the tripolar concentric ring electrode was successfully used in a wide range of applications demonstrating its superiority to conventional disc electrode, in particular, in accuracy of Laplacian estimation. This paper takes the next step toward further improving the Laplacian estimation with novel multipolar concentric ring electrodes by completing and validating a general approach to estimation of the Laplacian for an ( n + 1)-polar electrode with n rings using the (4 n + 1)-point method for n ≥ 2 that allows cancellation of all the truncation terms up to the order of 2 n . An explicit formula based on inversion of a square Vandermonde matrix is derived to make computation of multipolar Laplacian more efficient. To confirm the analytic result of the accuracy of Laplacian estimate increasing with the increase of n and to assess the significance of this gain in accuracy for practical applications finite element method model analysis has been performed. Multipolar concentric ring electrode configurations with n ranging from 1 ring (bipolar electrode configuration) to 6 rings (septapolar electrode configuration) were directly compared and obtained results suggest the significance of the increase in Laplacian accuracy caused by increase of n .

3D shape reconstruction of specular surfaces by using phase measuring deflectometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Tian; Chen, Kun; Wei, Haoyun; Li, Yan

2016-10-01

The existing estimation methods for recovering height information from surface gradient are mainly divided into Modal and Zonal techniques. Since specular surfaces used in the industry always have complex and large areas, considerations must be given to both the improvement of measurement accuracy and the acceleration of on-line processing speed, which beyond the capacity of existing estimations. Incorporating the Modal and Zonal approaches into a unifying scheme, we introduce an improved 3D shape reconstruction version of specular surfaces based on Phase Measuring Deflectometry in this paper. The Modal estimation is firstly implemented to derive the coarse height information of the measured surface as initial iteration values. Then the real shape can be recovered utilizing a modified Zonal wave-front reconstruction algorithm. By combining the advantages of Modal and Zonal estimations, the proposed method simultaneously achieves consistently high accuracy and dramatically rapid convergence. Moreover, the iterative process based on an advanced successive overrelaxation technique shows a consistent rejection of measurement errors, guaranteeing the stability and robustness in practical applications. Both simulation and experimentally measurement demonstrate the validity and efficiency of the proposed improved method. According to the experimental result, the computation time decreases approximately 74.92% in contrast to the Zonal estimation and the surface error is about 6.68 μm with reconstruction points of 391×529 pixels of an experimentally measured sphere mirror. In general, this method can be conducted with fast convergence speed and high accuracy, providing an efficient, stable and real-time approach for the shape reconstruction of specular surfaces in practical situations.

A modified Holly-Preissmann scheme for simulating sharp concentration fronts in streams with steep velocity gradients using RIV1Q

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhao-wei; Zhu, De-jun; Chen, Yong-can; Wang, Zhi-gang

2014-12-01

RIV1Q is the stand-alone water quality program of CE-QUAL-RIV1, a hydraulic and water quality model developed by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Waterways Experiment Station. It utilizes an operator-splitting algorithm and the advection term in governing equation is treated using the explicit two-point, fourth-order accurate, Holly-Preissmann scheme, in order to preserve numerical accuracy for advection of sharp gradients in concentration. In the scheme, the spatial derivative of the transport equation, where the derivative of velocity is included, is introduced to update the first derivative of dependent variable. In the stream with larger cross-sectional variation, steep velocity gradient can be easily found and should be estimated correctly. In the original version of RIV1Q, however, the derivative of velocity is approximated by a finite difference which is first-order accurate. Its leading truncation error leads to the numerical error of concentration which is related with the velocity and concentration gradients and increases with the decreasing Courant number. The simulation may also be unstable when a sharp velocity drop occurs. In the present paper, the derivative of velocity is estimated with a modified second-order accurate scheme and the corresponding numerical error of concentration decreases. Additionally, the stability of the simulation is improved. The modified scheme is verified with a hypothetical channel case and the results demonstrate that satisfactory accuracy and stability can be achieved even when the Courant number is very low. Finally, the applicability of the modified scheme is discussed.

Improving Evapotranspiration Estimates Using Multi-Platform Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knipper, Kyle; Hogue, Terri; Franz, Kristie; Scott, Russell

2016-04-01

Understanding the linkages between energy and water cycles through evapotranspiration (ET) is uniquely challenging given its dependence on a range of climatological parameters and surface/atmospheric heterogeneity. A number of methods have been developed to estimate ET either from primarily remote-sensing observations, in-situ measurements, or a combination of the two. However, the scale of many of these methods may be too large to provide needed information about the spatial and temporal variability of ET that can occur over regions with acute or chronic land cover change and precipitation driven fluxes. The current study aims to improve the spatial and temporal variability of ET utilizing only satellite-based observations by incorporating a potential evapotranspiration (PET) methodology with satellite-based down-scaled soil moisture estimates in southern Arizona, USA. Initially, soil moisture estimates from AMSR2 and SMOS are downscaled to 1km through a triangular relationship between MODIS land surface temperature (MYD11A1), vegetation indices (MOD13Q1/MYD13Q1), and brightness temperature. Downscaled soil moisture values are then used to scale PET to actual ET (AET) at a daily, 1km resolution. Derived AET estimates are compared to observed flux tower estimates, the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) model output (i.e. Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Macroscale Hydrologic Model, Mosiac Model, and Noah Model simulations), the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance Model (SSEBop), and a calibrated empirical ET model created specifically for the region. Preliminary results indicate a strong increase in correlation when incorporating the downscaling technique to original AMSR2 and SMOS soil moisture values, with the added benefit of being able to decipher small scale heterogeneity in soil moisture (riparian versus desert grassland). AET results show strong correlations with relatively low error and bias when compared to flux tower estimates. In addition, AET results show improved bias to those reported by SSEBop, with similar correlations and errors when compared to the empirical ET model. Spatial patterns of estimated AET display patterns representative of the basin's elevation and vegetation characteristics, with improved spatial resolution and temporal heterogeneity when compared to previous models.

Coupling of hydrogeological models with hydrogeophysical data to characterize seawater intrusion and shallow geothermal systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beaujean, J.; Kemna, A.; Engesgaard, P. K.; Hermans, T.; Vandenbohede, A.; Nguyen, F.

2013-12-01

While coastal aquifers are being stressed due to climate changes and excessive groundwater withdrawals require characterizing efficiently seawater intrusion (SWI) dynamics, production of geothermal energy is increasingly being used to hinder global warming. To study these issues, we need both robust measuring technologies and reliable predictions based on numerical models. SWI models are currently calibrated using borehole observations. Similarly, geothermal models depend mainly on the temperature field at few locations. Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) can be used to improve these models given its high sensitivity to TDS and temperature and its relatively high lateral resolution. Inherent geophysical limitations, such as the resolution loss, can affect the overall quality of the ERT images and also prevent the correct recovery of the desired hydrochemical property. We present an uncoupled and coupled hydrogeophysical inversion to calibrate SWI and thermohydrogeologic models using ERT. In the SWI models, we demonstrate with two synthetic benchmarks (homogeneous and heterogeneous coastal aquifers) the ability of cumulative sensitivity-filtered ERT images using surface-only data to recover the hydraulic conductivity. Filtering of ERT-derived data at depth, where resolution is poorer, and the model errors make the dispersivity more difficult to estimate. In the coupled approach, we showed that parameter estimation is significantly improved because regularization bias is replaced by forward modeling only. Our efforts are currently focusing on applying the uncoupled/coupled approaches on a real life case study using field data from the site of Almeria, SE Spain. In the thermohydrogeologic models, the most sensitive hydrologic parameters responsible for heat transport are estimated from surface ERT-derived temperatures and ERT resistance data. A real life geothermal experiment that took place on the Campus De Sterre of Ghent University, Belgium and a synthetic case are tested. They consist in a thermal injection and storage of water in a shallow sandy aquifer. The use of a physically-based constraint accounting for the difference in conductivity between the formation and the tap injected water and based on the hydrogeological model calibrated first on temperatures is necessary to improve the parameter estimation. Results suggest that time-lapse ERT data may be limited but useful information for estimating groundwater flow and transport parameters for both the convection and conduction phases.

Estimation of phase derivatives using discrete chirp-Fourier-transform-based method.

PubMed

Gorthi, Sai Siva; Rastogi, Pramod

2009-08-15

Estimation of phase derivatives is an important task in many interferometric measurements in optical metrology. This Letter introduces a method based on discrete chirp-Fourier transform for accurate and direct estimation of phase derivatives, even in the presence of noise. The method is introduced in the context of the analysis of reconstructed interference fields in digital holographic interferometry. We present simulation and experimental results demonstrating the utility of the proposed method.

Comparison of U.S. Forest Land AreaEstimates From Forest Inventory and Analysis, National Resources Inventory, and Four Satellite Image-Derived Land Cover Data Sets

Treesearch

Mark D. Nelson; Ronald E. McRoberts; Veronica C. Lessard

2005-01-01

Our objective was to test one application of remote sensing technology for complementing forest resource assessments by comparing a variety of existing satellite image-derived land cover maps with national inventory-derived estimates of United States forest land area. National Resources Inventory (NRI) 1997 estimates of non-Federal forest land area differed by 7.5...

Improving Marine Ecosystem Models with Biochemical Tracers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pethybridge, Heidi R.; Choy, C. Anela; Polovina, Jeffrey J.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.

2018-01-01

Empirical data on food web dynamics and predator-prey interactions underpin ecosystem models, which are increasingly used to support strategic management of marine resources. These data have traditionally derived from stomach content analysis, but new and complementary forms of ecological data are increasingly available from biochemical tracer techniques. Extensive opportunities exist to improve the empirical robustness of ecosystem models through the incorporation of biochemical tracer data and derived indices, an area that is rapidly expanding because of advances in analytical developments and sophisticated statistical techniques. Here, we explore the trophic information required by ecosystem model frameworks (species, individual, and size based) and match them to the most commonly used biochemical tracers (bulk tissue and compound-specific stable isotopes, fatty acids, and trace elements). Key quantitative parameters derived from biochemical tracers include estimates of diet composition, niche width, and trophic position. Biochemical tracers also provide powerful insight into the spatial and temporal variability of food web structure and the characterization of dominant basal and microbial food web groups. A major challenge in incorporating biochemical tracer data into ecosystem models is scale and data type mismatches, which can be overcome with greater knowledge exchange and numerical approaches that transform, integrate, and visualize data.

The higher mode of surface wave derived from ambient noise and preliminary application to estimating subsurface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhentao, Y.; Xiaofei, C.; Jiannan, W.

2016-12-01

The fundamental mode is the primary component of surface wave derived from ambient noise. It is the basis of the method of structure imaging from ambient noise (e.g. SPAC, Aki 1957; F-K, Lascoss 1968; MUSIC, Schmidt 1986). It is well known, however, that if the higher modes of surface wave can be identified from data and are incorporated in the inversion of dispersion curves, the uncertainty in inversion results will be greatly reduced (e.g., Tokimastu,1997). Actually, the ambient noise indeed contains the higher modes as well in its raw data of ambient noise. If we could extract the higher modes from ambient noise, the structure inversion method of ambient noise would be greatly improved. In the past decade, there are many studies to improve SPAC and analyses the relationship of fundamental mode and higher mode (Ohri et al 2002; Asten et al. 2006; Tashiaki Ykoi 2010 ;Tatsunori Ikeda 2012). In this study, we will present a new method of identifying higher modes from ambient noise data by reprocessing the "surface waves' phases" derived from the ambient noise through cross-correlation analysis, and show preliminary application in structure inversion.

A COMPARISON OF AEROSOL OPTICAL DEPTH SIMULATED USING CMAQ WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES

EPA Science Inventory

Satellite data provide new opportunities to study the regional distribution of particulate matter. The aerosol optical depth (AOD) - a derived estimate from the satellite measured irradiance, can be compared against model derived estimate to provide an evaluation of the columnar ...

Directional variance adjustment: bias reduction in covariance matrices based on factor analysis with an application to portfolio optimization.

PubMed

Bartz, Daniel; Hatrick, Kerr; Hesse, Christian W; Müller, Klaus-Robert; Lemm, Steven

2013-01-01

Robust and reliable covariance estimates play a decisive role in financial and many other applications. An important class of estimators is based on factor models. Here, we show by extensive Monte Carlo simulations that covariance matrices derived from the statistical Factor Analysis model exhibit a systematic error, which is similar to the well-known systematic error of the spectrum of the sample covariance matrix. Moreover, we introduce the Directional Variance Adjustment (DVA) algorithm, which diminishes the systematic error. In a thorough empirical study for the US, European, and Hong Kong stock market we show that our proposed method leads to improved portfolio allocation.

Economic benefits of improved meteorological forecasts - The construction industry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bhattacharyya, R. K.; Greenberg, J. S.

1976-01-01

Estimates are made of the potential economic benefits accruing to particular industries from timely utilization of satellite-derived six-hour weather forecasts, and of economic penalties resulting from failure to utilize such forecasts in day-to-day planning. The cost estimate study is centered on the U.S. construction industry, with results simplified to yes/no 6-hr forecasts on thunderstorm activity and work/no work decisions. Effects of weather elements (thunderstorms, snow and sleet) on various construction operations are indicated. Potential dollar benefits for other industries, including air transportation and other forms of transportation, are diagrammed for comparison. Geosynchronous satellites such as STORMSAT, SEOS, and SMS/GOES are considered as sources of the forecast data.

Directional Variance Adjustment: Bias Reduction in Covariance Matrices Based on Factor Analysis with an Application to Portfolio Optimization

PubMed Central

Bartz, Daniel; Hatrick, Kerr; Hesse, Christian W.; Müller, Klaus-Robert; Lemm, Steven

2013-01-01

Robust and reliable covariance estimates play a decisive role in financial and many other applications. An important class of estimators is based on factor models. Here, we show by extensive Monte Carlo simulations that covariance matrices derived from the statistical Factor Analysis model exhibit a systematic error, which is similar to the well-known systematic error of the spectrum of the sample covariance matrix. Moreover, we introduce the Directional Variance Adjustment (DVA) algorithm, which diminishes the systematic error. In a thorough empirical study for the US, European, and Hong Kong stock market we show that our proposed method leads to improved portfolio allocation. PMID:23844016

Improving UWB-Based Localization in IoT Scenarios with Statistical Models of Distance Error.

PubMed

Monica, Stefania; Ferrari, Gianluigi

2018-05-17

Interest in the Internet of Things (IoT) is rapidly increasing, as the number of connected devices is exponentially growing. One of the application scenarios envisaged for IoT technologies involves indoor localization and context awareness. In this paper, we focus on a localization approach that relies on a particular type of communication technology, namely Ultra Wide Band (UWB). UWB technology is an attractive choice for indoor localization, owing to its high accuracy. Since localization algorithms typically rely on estimated inter-node distances, the goal of this paper is to evaluate the improvement brought by a simple (linear) statistical model of the distance error. On the basis of an extensive experimental measurement campaign, we propose a general analytical framework, based on a Least Square (LS) method, to derive a novel statistical model for the range estimation error between a pair of UWB nodes. The proposed statistical model is then applied to improve the performance of a few illustrative localization algorithms in various realistic scenarios. The obtained experimental results show that the use of the proposed statistical model improves the accuracy of the considered localization algorithms with a reduction of the localization error up to 66%.

Replacing climatological potential evapotranspiration estimates with dynamic satellite-based observations in operational hydrologic prediction models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franz, K. J.; Bowman, A. L.; Hogue, T. S.; Kim, J.; Spies, R.

2011-12-01

In the face of a changing climate, growing populations, and increased human habitation in hydrologically risky locations, both short- and long-range planners increasingly require robust and reliable streamflow forecast information. Current operational forecasting utilizes watershed-scale, conceptual models driven by ground-based (commonly point-scale) observations of precipitation and temperature and climatological potential evapotranspiration (PET) estimates. The PET values are derived from historic pan evaporation observations and remain static from year-to-year. The need for regional dynamic PET values is vital for improved operational forecasting. With the advent of satellite remote sensing and the adoption of a more flexible operational forecast system by the National Weather Service, incorporation of advanced data products is now more feasible than in years past. In this study, we will test a previously developed satellite-derived PET product (UCLA MODIS-PET) in the National Weather Service forecast models and compare the model results to current methods. The UCLA MODIS-PET method is based on the Priestley-Taylor formulation, is driven with MODIS satellite products, and produces a daily, 250m PET estimate. The focus area is eight headwater basins in the upper Midwest U.S. There is a need to develop improved forecasting methods for this region that are able to account for climatic and landscape changes more readily and effectively than current methods. This region is highly flood prone yet sensitive to prolonged dry periods in late summer and early fall, and is characterized by a highly managed landscape, which has drastically altered the natural hydrologic cycle. Our goal is to improve model simulations, and thereby, the initial conditions prior to the start of a forecast through the use of PET values that better reflect actual watershed conditions. The forecast models are being tested in both distributed and lumped mode.

Performance of U-net based pyramidal lucas-kanade registration on free-breathing multi-b-value diffusion MRI of the kidney.

PubMed

Lv, Jun; Huang, Wenjian; Zhang, Jue; Wang, Xiaoying

2018-06-01

In free-breathing multi-b-value diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI), a series of images typically requires several minutes to collect. During respiration the kidney is routinely displaced and may also undergo deformation. These respiratory motion effects generate artifacts and these are the main sources of error in the quantification of intravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM) derived parameters. This work proposes a fully automated framework that combines a kidney segmentation to improve the registration accuracy. 10 healthy subjects were recruited to participate in this experiment. For the segmentation, U-net was adopted to acquire the kidney's contour. The segmented kidney then served as a region of interest (ROI) for the registration method, known as pyramidal Lucas-Kanade. Our proposed framework confines the kidney's solution range, thus increasing the pyramidal Lucas-Kanade's accuracy. To demonstrate the feasibility of our presented framework, eight regions of interest were selected in the cortex and medulla, and data stability was estimated by comparing the normalized root-mean-square error (NRMSE) values of the fitted data from the bi-exponential intravoxel incoherent motion model pre- and post- registration. The results show that the NRMSE was significantly lower after registration both in the cortex (p < 0.05) and medulla (p < 0.01) during free-breathing measurements. In addition, expert visual scoring of the derived apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), f, D and D* maps indicated there were significant improvements in the alignment of the kidney in the post-registered image. The proposed framework can effectively reduce the motion artifacts of misaligned multi-b-value DWIs and the inaccuracies of the ADC, f, D and D* estimations. Advances in knowledge: This study demonstrates the feasibility of our proposed fully automated framework combining U-net based segmentation and pyramidal Lucas-Kanade registration method for improving the alignment of multi-b-value diffusion-weighted MRIs and reducing the inaccuracy of parameter estimation during free-breathing.

Method for hyperspectral imagery exploitation and pixel spectral unmixing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Ching-Fang (Inventor)

2003-01-01

An efficiently hybrid approach to exploit hyperspectral imagery and unmix spectral pixels. This hybrid approach uses a genetic algorithm to solve the abundance vector for the first pixel of a hyperspectral image cube. This abundance vector is used as initial state in a robust filter to derive the abundance estimate for the next pixel. By using Kalman filter, the abundance estimate for a pixel can be obtained in one iteration procedure which is much fast than genetic algorithm. The output of the robust filter is fed to genetic algorithm again to derive accurate abundance estimate for the current pixel. The using of robust filter solution as starting point of the genetic algorithm speeds up the evolution of the genetic algorithm. After obtaining the accurate abundance estimate, the procedure goes to next pixel, and uses the output of genetic algorithm as the previous state estimate to derive abundance estimate for this pixel using robust filter. And again use the genetic algorithm to derive accurate abundance estimate efficiently based on the robust filter solution. This iteration continues until pixels in a hyperspectral image cube end.

Comparison of sampling designs for estimating deforestation from landsat TM and MODIS imagery: a case study in Mato Grosso, Brazil.

PubMed

Zhu, Shanyou; Zhang, Hailong; Liu, Ronggao; Cao, Yun; Zhang, Guixin

2014-01-01

Sampling designs are commonly used to estimate deforestation over large areas, but comparisons between different sampling strategies are required. Using PRODES deforestation data as a reference, deforestation in the state of Mato Grosso in Brazil from 2005 to 2006 is evaluated using Landsat imagery and a nearly synchronous MODIS dataset. The MODIS-derived deforestation is used to assist in sampling and extrapolation. Three sampling designs are compared according to the estimated deforestation of the entire study area based on simple extrapolation and linear regression models. The results show that stratified sampling for strata construction and sample allocation using the MODIS-derived deforestation hotspots provided more precise estimations than simple random and systematic sampling. Moreover, the relationship between the MODIS-derived and TM-derived deforestation provides a precise estimate of the total deforestation area as well as the distribution of deforestation in each block.

Comparison of Sampling Designs for Estimating Deforestation from Landsat TM and MODIS Imagery: A Case Study in Mato Grosso, Brazil

PubMed Central

Zhu, Shanyou; Zhang, Hailong; Liu, Ronggao; Cao, Yun; Zhang, Guixin

2014-01-01

Sampling designs are commonly used to estimate deforestation over large areas, but comparisons between different sampling strategies are required. Using PRODES deforestation data as a reference, deforestation in the state of Mato Grosso in Brazil from 2005 to 2006 is evaluated using Landsat imagery and a nearly synchronous MODIS dataset. The MODIS-derived deforestation is used to assist in sampling and extrapolation. Three sampling designs are compared according to the estimated deforestation of the entire study area based on simple extrapolation and linear regression models. The results show that stratified sampling for strata construction and sample allocation using the MODIS-derived deforestation hotspots provided more precise estimations than simple random and systematic sampling. Moreover, the relationship between the MODIS-derived and TM-derived deforestation provides a precise estimate of the total deforestation area as well as the distribution of deforestation in each block. PMID:25258742

Estimating the return-on-investment from changes in employee health risks on the Dow Chemical Company's health care costs.

PubMed

Goetzel, Ron Z; Ozminkowski, Ronald J; Baase, Catherine M; Billotti, Gary M

2005-08-01

We sought to estimate the impact of corporate health-management and risk-reduction programs for The Dow Chemical Company by using a prospective return-on-investment (ROI) model. The risk and expenditure estimates were derived from multiple regression analyses showing relationships between worker demographics, health risks, and medical expenditures. A "break-even" scenario would require Dow to reduce each of 10 population health risks by 0.17% points per year over the course of 10 years. More successful efforts at reducing health risks in the population would produce a more significant ROI for the company. Findings from this study were incorporated into other components of a business case for health and productivity management, and these supported continued investments in health improvement programs designed to achieve risk reduction and cost savings.

Space based observations: A state of the art solution for spatial monitoring tropical forested watershed productivity at regional scale in developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmud, M. R.

2014-02-01

This paper presents the simplified and operational approach of mapping the water yield in tropical watershed using space-based multi sensor remote sensing data. Two main critical hydrological rainfall variables namely rainfall and evapotranspiration are being estimated by satellite measurement and reinforce the famous Thornthwaite & Mather water balance model. The satellite rainfall and ET estimates were able to represent the actual value on the ground with accuracy under considerable conditions. The satellite derived water yield had good agreement and relation with actual streamflow. A high bias measurement may result due to; i) influence of satellite rainfall estimates during heavy storm, and ii) large uncertainties and standard deviation of MODIS temperature data product. The output of this study managed to improve the regional scale of hydrology assessment in Peninsular Malaysia.

Variability of Marine Aerosol Fine-Mode Fraction and Estimates of Anthropogenic Aerosol Component Over Cloud-Free Oceans from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yu, Hongbin; Chin, Mian; Remer, Lorraine A.; Kleidman, Richard G.; Bellouin, Nicolas; Bian, Huisheng; Diehl, Thomas

2009-01-01

In this study, we examine seasonal and geographical variability of marine aerosol fine-mode fraction (f(sub m)) and its impacts on deriving the anthropogenic component of aerosol optical depth (tau(sub a)) and direct radiative forcing from multispectral satellite measurements. A proxy of f(sub m), empirically derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 5 data, shows large seasonal and geographical variations that are consistent with the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation Transport (GOCART) and Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) model simulations. The so-derived seasonally and spatially varying f(sub m) is then implemented into a method of estimating tau(sub a) and direct radiative forcing from the MODIS measurements. It is found that the use of a constant value for fm as in previous studies would have overestimated Ta by about 20% over global ocean, with the overestimation up to 45% in some regions and seasons. The 7-year (2001-2007) global ocean average tau(sub a) is 0.035, with yearly average ranging from 0.031 to 0.039. Future improvement in measurements is needed to better separate anthropogenic aerosol from natural ones and to narrow down the wide range of aerosol direct radiative forcing.

Spectroscopic Determination of Aboveground Biomass in Grasslands Using Spectral Transformations, Support Vector Machine and Partial Least Squares Regression

PubMed Central

Marabel, Miguel; Alvarez-Taboada, Flor

2013-01-01

Aboveground biomass (AGB) is one of the strategic biophysical variables of interest in vegetation studies. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) for estimating the AGB of grasslands from field spectrometer data and to find out which data pre-processing approach was the most suitable. The most accurate model to predict the total AGB involved PLSR and the Maximum Band Depth index derived from the continuum removed reflectance in the absorption features between 916–1,120 nm and 1,079–1,297 nm (R2 = 0.939, RMSE = 7.120 g/m2). Regarding the green fraction of the AGB, the Area Over the Minimum index derived from the continuum removed spectra provided the most accurate model overall (R2 = 0.939, RMSE = 3.172 g/m2). Identifying the appropriate absorption features was proved to be crucial to improve the performance of PLSR to estimate the total and green aboveground biomass, by using the indices derived from those spectral regions. Ordinary Least Square Regression could be used as a surrogate for the PLSR approach with the Area Over the Minimum index as the independent variable, although the resulting model would not be as accurate. PMID:23925082

Speech Enhancement, Gain, and Noise Spectrum Adaptation Using Approximate Bayesian Estimation

PubMed Central

Hao, Jiucang; Attias, Hagai; Nagarajan, Srikantan; Lee, Te-Won; Sejnowski, Terrence J.

2010-01-01

This paper presents a new approximate Bayesian estimator for enhancing a noisy speech signal. The speech model is assumed to be a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) in the log-spectral domain. This is in contrast to most current models in frequency domain. Exact signal estimation is a computationally intractable problem. We derive three approximations to enhance the efficiency of signal estimation. The Gaussian approximation transforms the log-spectral domain GMM into the frequency domain using minimal Kullback–Leiber (KL)-divergency criterion. The frequency domain Laplace method computes the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator for the spectral amplitude. Correspondingly, the log-spectral domain Laplace method computes the MAP estimator for the log-spectral amplitude. Further, the gain and noise spectrum adaptation are implemented using the expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm within the GMM under Gaussian approximation. The proposed algorithms are evaluated by applying them to enhance the speeches corrupted by the speech-shaped noise (SSN). The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithms offer improved signal-to-noise ratio, lower word recognition error rate, and less spectral distortion. PMID:20428253

A New Geological Slip Rate Estimate for the Calico Fault, Eastern California: Implications for Geodetic Versus Geologic Rate Estimates in the Eastern California Shear Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetmore, P. H.; Xie, S.; Gallant, E.; Owen, L. A.; Dixon, T. H.

2017-12-01

Fault slip rate is fundamental to accurate seismic hazard assessment. In the Mojave Desert section of the Eastern California Shear Zone previous studies have suggested a discrepancy between short-term geodetic and long-term geologic slip rate estimates. Understanding the origin of this discrepancy could lead to better understanding of stress evolution, and improve earthquake hazard estimates in general. We measured offsets in alluvial fans along the Calico fault near Newberry Springs, California, and used exposure age dating based on the cosmogenic nuclide 10Be to date the offset landforms. We derive a mean slip rate of 3.6 mm/yr, representing an average over the last few hundred thousand years, significantly faster than previous estimates. Considering numerous faults in the Mojave Desert and limited geologic slip rate estimates, it is premature to claim a geologic versus geodetic "discrepancy" for the ECSZ. More slip rate data, from all faults with the ECSZ, are needed to provide a statistically meaningful assessment of the geologic rates for each of the faults comprising the ECSZ.

DOA estimation of noncircular signals for coprime linear array via locally reduced-dimensional Capon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, Hui; Zhang, Xiaofei; Zheng, Wang

2018-05-01

We investigate the issue of direction of arrival (DOA) estimation of noncircular signals for coprime linear array (CLA). The noncircular property enhances the degree of freedom and improves angle estimation performance, but it leads to a more complex angle ambiguity problem. To eliminate ambiguity, we theoretically prove that the actual DOAs of noncircular signals can be uniquely estimated by finding the coincide results from the two decomposed subarrays based on the coprimeness. We propose a locally reduced-dimensional (RD) Capon algorithm for DOA estimation of noncircular signals for CLA. The RD processing is used in the proposed algorithm to avoid two dimensional (2D) spectral peak search, and coprimeness is employed to avoid the global spectral peak search. The proposed algorithm requires one-dimensional locally spectral peak search, and it has very low computational complexity. Furthermore, the proposed algorithm needs no prior knowledge of the number of sources. We also derive the Crámer-Rao bound of DOA estimation of noncircular signals in CLA. Numerical simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the algorithm.

Preliminary estimates of the economic implications of addiction in the United Arab Emirates.

PubMed

Doran, C M

2017-01-23

This study aimed to provide preliminary estimates of the economic implications of addiction in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Local and international data sources were used to derive estimates of substancerelated healthcare costs, lost productivity and criminal behaviour. From an estimated population of 8.26 million: ~1.47 million used tobacco (20.5% of adults); 380 085 used cannabis (> 5%); 14 077 used alcohol in a harmful manner (0.2%); and 1408 used opiates (0.02%). The cost of addiction was estimated at US$ 5.47 billion in 2012, equivalent to 1.4% of gross domestic product. Productivity costs were the largest contributor at US$ 4.79 billion (88%) followed by criminal behaviour at US$ 0.65 billion (12%). There were no data to estimate cost of: treating tobacco-related diseases, community education and prevention efforts, or social disharmony. Current data collection efforts are limited in their capacity to fully inform an appropriate response to addiction in the UAE. Resources are required to improve indicators of drug use, monitor harm and evaluate treatment.

Improved radial dose function estimation using current version MCNP Monte-Carlo simulation: Model 6711 and ISC3500 125I brachytherapy sources.

PubMed

Duggan, Dennis M

2004-12-01

Improved cross-sections in a new version of the Monte-Carlo N-particle (MCNP) code may eliminate discrepancies between radial dose functions (as defined by American Association of Physicists in Medicine Task Group 43) derived from Monte-Carlo simulations of low-energy photon-emitting brachytherapy sources and those from measurements on the same sources with thermoluminescent dosimeters. This is demonstrated for two 125I brachytherapy seed models, the Implant Sciences Model ISC3500 (I-Plant) and the Amersham Health Model 6711, by simulating their radial dose functions with two versions of MCNP, 4c2 and 5.

Offline handwritten word recognition using MQDF-HMMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramachandrula, Sitaram; Hambarde, Mangesh; Patial, Ajay; Sahoo, Dushyant; Kochar, Shaivi

2015-01-01

We propose an improved HMM formulation for offline handwriting recognition (HWR). The main contribution of this work is using modified quadratic discriminant function (MQDF) [1] within HMM framework. In an MQDF-HMM the state observation likelihood is calculated by a weighted combination of MQDF likelihoods of individual Gaussians of GMM (Gaussian Mixture Model). The quadratic discriminant function (QDF) of a multivariate Gaussian can be rewritten by avoiding the inverse of covariance matrix by using the Eigen values and Eigen vectors of it. The MQDF is derived from QDF by substituting few of badly estimated lower-most Eigen values by an appropriate constant. The estimation errors of non-dominant Eigen vectors and Eigen values of covariance matrix for which the training data is insufficient can be controlled by this approach. MQDF has been successfully shown to improve the character recognition performance [1]. The usage of MQDF in HMM improves the computation, storage and modeling power of HMM when there is limited training data. We have got encouraging results on offline handwritten character (NIST database) and word recognition in English using MQDF HMMs.

Modeling water and heat balance components of large territory for vegetation season using information from polar-orbital and geostationary meteorological satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muzylev, Eugene; Startseva, Zoya; Uspensky, Alexander; Volkova, Elena; Kukharsky, Alexander; Uspensky, Sergey

2015-04-01

To date, physical-mathematical modeling processes of land surface-atmosphere interaction is considered to be the most appropriate tool for obtaining reliable estimates of water and heat balance components of large territories. The model of these processes (Land Surface Model, LSM) developed for vegetation period is destined for simulating soil water content W, evapotranspiration Ev, vertical latent LE and heat fluxes from land surface as well as vertically distributed soil temperature and moisture, soil surface Tg and foliage Tf temperatures, and land surface skin temperature (LST) Ts. The model is suitable for utilizing remote sensing data on land surface and meteorological conditions. In the study these data have been obtained from measurements by scanning radiometers AVHRR/NOAA, MODIS/EOS Terra and Aqua, SEVIRI/geostationary satellites Meteosat-9, -10 (MSG-2, -3). The heterogeneity of the land surface and meteorological conditions has been taken into account in the model by using soil and vegetation characteristics as parameters and meteorological characteristics as input variables. Values of these characteristics have been determined from ground observations and remote sensing information. So, AVHRR data have been used to build the estimates of effective land surface temperature (LST) Ts.eff and emissivity E, vegetation-air temperature (temperature at the vegetation level) Ta, normalized vegetation index NDVI, vegetation cover fraction B, the leaf area index LAI, and precipitation. From MODIS data the values of LST Tls, Å, NDVI, LAI have been derived. From SEVIRI data there have been retrieved Tls, E, Ta, NDVI, LAI and precipitation. All named retrievals covered the vast territory of the part of the agricultural Central Black Earth Region located in the steppe-forest zone of European Russia. This territory with coordinates 49°30'-54°N, 31°-43°E and a total area of 227,300 km2 has been chosen for investigation. It has been carried out for years 2009-2013 vegetation seasons. To provide the retrieval of Ts.eff, E, Ta, NDVI, B, and LAI the previously developed technologies of AVHRR data processing have been refined and adapted to the region of interest. The updated linear regression estimators for Ts.eff and Tà have been built using representative training samples compiled for above vegetation seasons. The updated software package has been applied for AVHRR data processing to generate estimates of named values. To verify the accuracy of these estimates the error statistics of Ts.eff and Ta derivation has been investigated for various days of named seasons using comparison with in-situ ground-based measurements. On the base of special technology and Internet resources the remote sensing products Tls, E, NDVI, LAI derived from MODIS data and covering the study area have been extracted from LP DAAC web-site for the same vegetation seasons. The reliability of the MODIS-derived Tls estimates has been confirmed via comparison with analogous and collocated ground-, AVHRR-, and SEVIRI-based ones. The prepared remote sensing dataset has also included the SEVIRI-derived estimates of Tls, E, NDVI, Ta at daylight and night-time and daily estimates of LAI. The Tls estimates has been built utilizing the method and technology developed for the retrieval of Tls and E from 15 minutes time interval SEVIRI data in IR channels 10.8 and 12.0 µm (classified as 100% cloud-free and covering the area of interest) at three successive times without accurate a priori knowledge of E. Comparison of the SEVIRI-based Tls retrievals with independent collocated Tls estimates generated at the Land Surface Analysis Satellite Applications Facility (LSA SAF, Lisbon, Portugal) has given daily- or monthly-averaged values of RMS deviation in the range of 2°C for various dates and months during the mentioned vegetation seasons which is quite acceptable result. The reliability of the SEVIRI-based Tls estimates for the study area has been also confirmed by comparing with AVHRR- and MODIS-derived LST estimates for the same seasons. The SEVIRI-derived values of Ta considered as the temperature of the vegetation cover has been obtained using Tls estimates and a previously found multiple linear regression relationship between Tls and Ta formulated accounting for solar zenith angle and land elevation. A comparison with ground-based collocated Ta observations has given RMS errors of 2.5°C and lower. It can be treated as a proof of the proposed technique's functionality. SEVIRI-derived LAI estimates have been retrieved at LSA SAF from measurements by this sensor in channels 0.6, 0.8, and 1.6 μm under cloud-free conditions at that when using data in the channel 1.6 μm the accuracy of these estimates has increased. In the study the AVHRR- and SEVIRI-derived estimates of daily and monthly precipitation sums for the territory under investigation for the years 2009 - 2013 vegetation seasons have been also used. These estimates have been obtained by the improved integrated Multi Threshold Method (MTM) providing detection and identification of cloud types around the clock throughout the year as well as identification of precipitation zones and determination of instantaneous precipitation maximum intensity within the pixel using the measurement data in different channels of named sensors as predictors. Validation of the MTM has been performed by comparing the daily and monthly precipitation sums with appropriate values resulted from ground-based observations at the meteorological stations of the region. The probability of detecting precipitation zones from satellite data corresponding to the actual ones has been amounted to 70-80%. AVHRR- and SEVIRI-derived daily and monthly precipitation sums have been in reasonable agreement with each other and with results of ground-based observations although they are smoother than the last values. Discrepancies have been noted only for local maxima for which satellite-based estimates of precipitation have been much less than ground-based ones. It may be due to the different spatial scales of areal satellite-derived and point ground-based estimates. To utilize satellite-derived vegetation and meteorological characteristics in the model the special procedures have been developed including: - replacement of ground-based LAI and B estimates used as model parameters by their satellite-derived estimates from AVHRR, MODIS and SEVIRI data. Correctness of such replacement has been confirmed by comparing the time behavior of LAI over the period of vegetation as well as modeled and measured values of evapotranspiration Ev and soil moisture content W; - entering AVHRR-, MODIS- and SEVIRI-derived estimates of Ts.eff Tls, and Ta into the model as input variables instead of ground-measured values with verification of adequacy of model operation under such a change through comparison of the calculated and measured values of W and Ev; - inputing satellite-derived estimates of precipitation during vegetation period retrieved from AVHRR and SEVIRI data using the MTM into the model as input variables. When developing given procedure algorithms and programs have been created to transit from assessment of the rainfall intensity to evaluation of its daily values. The implementation of such a transition requires controlling correctness of the estimates built at each time step. This control includes comparison of areal distributions of three-hour, daily and monthly precipitation amounts obtained from satellite data and calculated by interpolation of standard network observation data; - taking into account spatial heterogeneity of fields of satellite AVHRR-, MODIS- and SEVIRI-derived estimates of LAI, B, LST and precipitation. This has involved the development of algorithms and software for entering the values of all named characteristics into the model in each computational grid node. Values of evapotranspiration E, soil water content W, vertical latent and sensible heat fluxes and other water and heat balance components as well as land surface temperature and moisture area-distributed over the territory of interest have been resulted from the model calculations for the years 2009-2013 vegetation seasons. These calculations have been carried out utilizing satellite-derived estimates of the vegetation characteristics, LST and precipitation. E and W calculation errors have not exceeded the standard values.

Revised estimates for direct-effect recreational jobs in the interior Columbia River basin.

Treesearch

Lisa K. Crone; Richard W. Haynes

1999-01-01

This paper reviews the methodology used to derive the original estimates for direct employment associated with recreation on Federal lands in the interior Columbia River basin (the basin), and details the changes in methodology and data used to derive new estimates. The new analysis resulted in an estimate of 77,655 direct-effect jobs associated with recreational...

Estimation of dynamic stability parameters from drop model flight tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chambers, J. R.; Iliff, K. W.

1981-01-01

The overall remotely piloted drop model operation, descriptions, instrumentation, launch and recovery operations, piloting concept, and parameter identification methods are discussed. Static and dynamic stability derivatives were obtained for an angle attack range from -20 deg to 53 deg. It is indicated that the variations of the estimates with angle of attack are consistent for most of the static derivatives, and the effects of configuration modifications to the model were apparent in the static derivative estimates.

Toward an improved determination of Earth's lithospheric magnetic field from satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotsiaros, S.

2016-12-01

An analytical and numerical analysis of the spectral properties of the gradient tensor, initially performed by Rummel and van Gelderen (1992) for the gravity potential, shows that when the tensor elements are grouped into sets of semi-tangential and pure-tangential parts, they produce almost identical signal content as the normal element. Moreover, simple eigenvalue relations can be derived between these sets and the spherical harmonic expansion of the potential. This theoretical development generally applies to any potential field. First, the analysis of Rummel and van Gelderen (1992) is adapted to the magnetic field case and then the elements of the magnetic gradient tensor are estimated by 2 years of Swarm data and grouped into Γ(1) = {[∇B]rθ,[∇B]rφ} resp. Γ(2) = {[∇B]θθ-[∇B]φφ, 2[∇B]θφ}. It is shown that the estimated combinations Γ(1) and Γ(2) produce similar signal content as the theoretical radial gradient [∇B]rr. These results demonstrate the ability of multi-satellite missions such as Swarm, which cannot directly measure the radial gradient, to retrieve similar signal content by means of the horizontal gradients. Finally, lithospheric field models are derived using the gradient combinations Γ(1) and Γ(2) and compared with models derived from traditional vector and gradient data. The model resulting from Γ(1) leads to a very similar, and in particular cases improved, model compared to models retrieved by using approximately three times more data, i.e. a full set of vector, North-South and East-West gradients. ReferencesRummel, R., and M. van Gelderen (1992), Spectral analysis of the full gravity tensor, Geophysical Journal International, 111 (1), 159-169.

Improved Model of Isoprene Emissions in Africa using Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) Satellite Observations of Formaldehyde: Implications for Oxidants and Particulate Matter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marais, E. A.; Jacob, D.; Guenther, Alex B.

We use a 2005-2009 record of isoprene emissions over Africa derived from OMI satellite observations of formaldehyde (HCHO) to better understand the factors controlling isoprene emission on the scale of the continent and evaluate the impact of isoprene emissions on atmospheric composition in Africa. OMI-derived isoprene emissions show large seasonality over savannas driven by temperature and leaf area index (LAI), and much weaker seasonality over equatorial forests driven by temperature. The commonly used MEGAN (version 2.1) global 31 isoprene emission model reproduces this seasonality but is biased high, particularly for 32 equatorial forests, when compared to OMI and relaxed-eddy accumulationmore » measurements. 33 Isoprene emissions in MEGAN are computed as the product of an emission factor Eo, LAI, and 34 activity factors dependent on environmental variables. We use the OMI-derived emissions to 35 provide improved estimates of Eo that are in good agreement with direct leaf measurements from 36 field campaigns (r = 0.55, bias = -19%). The largest downward corrections to MEGAN Eo values are for equatorial forests and semi-arid environments, and this is consistent with latitudinal transects of isoprene over West Africa from the AMMA aircraft campaign. Total emission of isoprene in Africa is estimated to be 77 Tg C a-1, compared to 104 Tg C a-1 in MEGAN. Simulations with the GEOS-Chem oxidant-aerosol model suggest that isoprene emissions increase mean surface ozone in West Africa by up to 8 ppbv, and particulate matter by up to 1.5 42 μg m-3, due to coupling with anthropogenic influences.« less

Novel SVM-based technique to improve rainfall estimation over the Mediterranean region (north of Algeria) using the multispectral MSG SEVIRI imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sehad, Mounir; Lazri, Mourad; Ameur, Soltane

2017-03-01

In this work, a new rainfall estimation technique based on the high spatial and temporal resolution of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infra Red Imager (SEVIRI) aboard the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) is presented. This work proposes efficient scheme rainfall estimation based on two multiclass support vector machine (SVM) algorithms: SVM_D for daytime and SVM_N for night time rainfall estimations. Both SVM models are trained using relevant rainfall parameters based on optical, microphysical and textural cloud proprieties. The cloud parameters are derived from the Spectral channels of the SEVIRI MSG radiometer. The 3-hourly and daily accumulated rainfall are derived from the 15 min-rainfall estimation given by the SVM classifiers for each MSG observation image pixel. The SVMs were trained with ground meteorological radar precipitation scenes recorded from November 2006 to March 2007 over the north of Algeria located in the Mediterranean region. Further, the SVM_D and SVM_N models were used to estimate 3-hourly and daily rainfall using data set gathered from November 2010 to March 2011 over north Algeria. The results were validated against collocated rainfall observed by rain gauge network. Indeed, the statistical scores given by correlation coefficient, bias, root mean square error and mean absolute error, showed good accuracy of rainfall estimates by the present technique. Moreover, rainfall estimates of our technique were compared with two high accuracy rainfall estimates methods based on MSG SEVIRI imagery namely: random forests (RF) based approach and an artificial neural network (ANN) based technique. The findings of the present technique indicate higher correlation coefficient (3-hourly: 0.78; daily: 0.94), and lower mean absolute error and root mean square error values. The results show that the new technique assign 3-hourly and daily rainfall with good and better accuracy than ANN technique and (RF) model.

Distortion theorems for polynomials on a circle

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dubinin, V N

2000-12-31

Inequalities for the derivatives with respect to {phi}=arg z the functions ReP(z), |P(z)|{sup 2} and arg P(z) are established for an algebraic polynomial P(z) at points on the circle |z|=1. These estimates depend, in particular, on the constant term and the leading coefficient of the polynomial P(z) and improve the classical Bernstein and Turan inequalities. The method of proof is based on the techniques of generalized reduced moduli.

Coupling temporal and spatial gradient information in high-density unstructured Lagrangian measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Jaime G.; Rosi, Giuseppe A.; Rouhi, Amirreza; Rival, David E.

2017-10-01

Particle tracking velocimetry (PTV) produces high-quality temporal information that is often neglected when computing spatial gradients. A method is presented here to utilize this temporal information in order to improve the estimation of spatial gradients for spatially unstructured Lagrangian data sets. Starting with an initial guess, this method penalizes any gradient estimate where the substantial derivative of vorticity along a pathline is not equal to the local vortex stretching/tilting. Furthermore, given an initial guess, this method can proceed on an individual pathline without any further reference to neighbouring pathlines. The equivalence of the substantial derivative and vortex stretching/tilting is based on the vorticity transport equation, where viscous diffusion is neglected. By minimizing the residual of the vorticity-transport equation, the proposed method is first tested to reduce error and noise on a synthetic Taylor-Green vortex field dissipating in time. Furthermore, when the proposed method is applied to high-density experimental data collected with `Shake-the-Box' PTV, noise within the spatial gradients is significantly reduced. In the particular test case investigated here of an accelerating circular plate captured during a single run, the method acts to delineate the shear layer and vortex core, as well as resolve the Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities, which were previously unidentifiable without the use of ensemble averaging. The proposed method shows promise for improving PTV measurements that require robust spatial gradients while retaining the unstructured Lagrangian perspective.

State-space modeling of population sizes and trends in Nihoa Finch and Millerbird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gorresen, P. Marcos; Brinck, Kevin W.; Camp, Richard J.; Farmer, Chris; Plentovich, Sheldon M.; Banko, Paul C.

2016-01-01

Both of the 2 passerines endemic to Nihoa Island, Hawai‘i, USA—the Nihoa Millerbird (Acrocephalus familiaris kingi) and Nihoa Finch (Telespiza ultima)—are listed as endangered by federal and state agencies. Their abundances have been estimated by irregularly implemented fixed-width strip-transect sampling from 1967 to 2012, from which area-based extrapolation of the raw counts produced highly variable abundance estimates for both species. To evaluate an alternative survey method and improve abundance estimates, we conducted variable-distance point-transect sampling between 2010 and 2014. We compared our results to those obtained from strip-transect samples. In addition, we applied state-space models to derive improved estimates of population size and trends from the legacy time series of strip-transect counts. Both species were fairly evenly distributed across Nihoa and occurred in all or nearly all available habitat. Population trends for Nihoa Millerbird were inconclusive because of high within-year variance. Trends for Nihoa Finch were positive, particularly since the early 1990s. Distance-based analysis of point-transect counts produced mean estimates of abundance similar to those from strip-transects but was generally more precise. However, both survey methods produced biologically unrealistic variability between years. State-space modeling of the long-term time series of abundances obtained from strip-transect counts effectively reduced uncertainty in both within- and between-year estimates of population size, and allowed short-term changes in abundance trajectories to be smoothed into a long-term trend.

Derivation and analysis of cross relations of photosynthesis and respiration across at FLUXNET sites for model improvement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lasslop, G.; Reichstein, M.; Papale, D.; Richardson, A. D.

2009-12-01

The FLUXNET database provides measurements of the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon across vegetation types and climate regions. To simplify the interpretation in terms of processes the net exchange is frequently split up into the two main components: gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco). A strong relation between these two fluxes related derived from eddy covariance data was found across temporal scales and is to be expected as variation in recent photosynthesis is known to be correlated with root respiration; plants use energy from photosynthesis to drive the metabolism. At long time scales, substrate availability (constrained by past productivity) limits the whole-ecosystem respiration. Previous studies exploring this relationship relied on GPP and Reco estimates derived from the same data, this may lead to spurious correlation that must not be interpreted ecologically. In this study we use two estimates derived from disjunct datasets, one based on daytime data, the other on nighttime data and explore the reliability and robustness of this relationship. We find distinct relationship between the two, varying between vegetation types but also across temporal and spatial scales. We also infer that spatial and temporal variability of net ecosystem exchange is driven by GPP in many cases. Exceptions to this rule include for example disturbed sites. We advocate that for model calibration and evaluation not only the fluxes itself but also robust patterns between fluxes that can be extracted from the database, for instance between the flux components, should be considered.

Air quality and human health impacts of grasslands and shrublands in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gopalakrishnan, Varsha; Hirabayashi, Satoshi; Ziv, Guy; Bakshi, Bhavik R.

2018-06-01

Vegetation including canopy, grasslands, and shrublands can directly sequester pollutants onto the plant surface, resulting in an improvement in air quality. Until now, several studies have estimated the pollution removal capacity of canopy cover at the level of a county, but no such work exists for grasslands and shrublands. This work quantifies the air pollution removal capacity of grasslands and shrublands at the county-level in the United States and estimates the human health benefits associated with pollution removal using the i-Tree Eco model. Sequestration of pollutants is estimated based on the Leaf Area Index (LAI) obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived dataset estimates of LAI and the percentage land cover obtained from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) for the year 2010. Calculation of pollution removal capacity using local environmental data indicates that grasslands and shrublands remove a total of 6.42 million tonnes of air pollutants in the United States and the associated monetary benefits total 268 million. Human health impacts and associated monetary value due to pollution removal was observed to be significantly high in urban areas indicating that grasslands and shrublands are equally critical as canopy in improving air quality and human health in urban regions.