Potential usefulness of apolipoprotein A2 isoforms for screening and risk stratification of pancreatic cancer

PubMed Central

Honda, Kazufumi; Srivastava, Sudhir

2016-01-01

Given the low incidence of pancreatic cancer in the general population, screening of pancreatic cancer in the general population using invasive modalities is not feasible. Combination of invasive screening with noninvasive biomarkers for pancreatic cancer and its precancerous lesions has the potential to reduce mortality due to pancreatic cancer. In this review, we focus on biomarkers found in the blood that can indicate early-stage pancreatic cancer, and we discuss current strategies for screening for pancreatic cancer. We recently identified a unique alteration in apolipoprotein A2 isoforms in pancreatic cancer and its precancerous lesions, and we describe its clinical usefulness as a potential biomarker for the early detection and risk stratification of pancreatic cancer. PMID:27673558

Cardiac risk stratification in cardiac rehabilitation programs: a review of protocols

PubMed Central

da Silva, Anne Kastelianne França; Barbosa, Marianne Penachini da Costa de Rezende; Bernardo, Aline Fernanda Barbosa; Vanderlei, Franciele Marques; Pacagnelli, Francis Lopes; Vanderlei, Luiz Carlos Marques

2014-01-01

Objective Gather and describe general characteristics of different protocols of risk stratification for cardiac patients undergoing exercise. Methods We conducted searches in LILACS, IBECS, MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, and SciELO electronic databases, using the following descriptors: Cardiovascular Disease, Rehabilitation Centers, Practice Guideline, Exercise and Risk Stratification in the past 20 years. Results Were selected eight studies addressing methods of risk stratification in patients undergoing exercise. Conclusion None of the methods described could cover every situation the patient can be subjected to; however, they are essential to exercise prescription. PMID:25140477

Identifying High-Risk Patients without Labeled Training Data: Anomaly Detection Methodologies to Predict Adverse Outcomes

PubMed Central

Syed, Zeeshan; Saeed, Mohammed; Rubinfeld, Ilan

2010-01-01

For many clinical conditions, only a small number of patients experience adverse outcomes. Developing risk stratification algorithms for these conditions typically requires collecting large volumes of data to capture enough positive and negative for training. This process is slow, expensive, and may not be appropriate for new phenomena. In this paper, we explore different anomaly detection approaches to identify high-risk patients as cases that lie in sparse regions of the feature space. We study three broad categories of anomaly detection methods: classification-based, nearest neighbor-based, and clustering-based techniques. When evaluated on data from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP), these methods were able to successfully identify patients at an elevated risk of mortality and rare morbidities following inpatient surgical procedures. PMID:21347083

Ultrasound Imaging for Risk Assessment in Atherosclerosis

PubMed Central

Steinl, David C.; Kaufmann, Beat A.

2015-01-01

Atherosclerosis and its consequences like acute myocardial infarction or stroke are highly prevalent in western countries, and the incidence of atherosclerosis is rapidly rising in developing countries. Atherosclerosis is a disease that progresses silently over several decades before it results in the aforementioned clinical consequences. Therefore, there is a clinical need for imaging methods to detect the early stages of atherosclerosis and to better risk stratify patients. In this review, we will discuss how ultrasound imaging can contribute to the detection and risk stratification of atherosclerosis by (a) detecting advanced and early plaques; (b) evaluating the biomechanical consequences of atherosclerosis in the vessel wall; (c) assessing plaque neovascularization and (d) imaging the expression of disease-relevant molecules using molecular imaging. PMID:25938969

68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT for prostate cancer staging and risk stratification in Chinese patients.

PubMed

Zang, Shiming; Shao, Guoqiang; Cui, Can; Li, Tian-Nv; Huang, Yue; Yao, Xiaochen; Fan, Qiu; Chen, Zejun; Du, Jin; Jia, Ruipeng; Sun, Hongbin; Hua, Zichun; Tang, Jun; Wang, Feng

2017-02-14

We evaluated the clinical utility of 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT for staging and risk stratification of treatment-naïve prostate cancer (PCa) and metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Twenty-two consecutive patients with treatment-naïve PCa and 18 with mCRPC were enrolled. 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were performed for the evaluation of primary prostatic lesions, and bone scans were used for evaluation bone metastasis. Among the 40 patients, 37 (92.5% [22 treatment-naïve PCa, 15 mCRPC]) showed PSMA-avid lesions on 68Ga-PSMA-11 images. Only 3 patients with stable mCRPC after chemotherapy were negative for PSMA. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of 68Ga-PSMA-11 imaging were 97.3%, 100.0% and 97.5%, respectively. The maximum standardized uptake (SUVmax) of prostatic lesions was 17.09 ± 11.08 and 13.33 ± 12.31 in treatment-naïve PCa and mCRPC, respectively. 68Ga-PSMA-11 revealed 105 metastatic lymph nodes in 15 patients; the SUVmax was 16.85 ± 9.70 and 7.54 ± 5.20 in treatment-naïve PCa and mCRPC, respectively. 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT also newly detected visceral metastasis in 9 patients (22.5%) and bone metastasis in 29 patients (72.5%). 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT exhibits potential for staging and risk stratification in naïve PCa, as well as improved sensitivity for detection of lymph node and remote metastasis.

68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT for prostate cancer staging and risk stratification in Chinese patients

PubMed Central

Cui, Can; Li, Tian-Nv; Huang, Yue; Yao, Xiaochen; Fan, Qiu; Chen, Zejun; Du, Jin; Jia, Ruipeng; Sun, Hongbin; Hua, Zichun; Tang, Jun; Wang, Feng

2017-01-01

We evaluated the clinical utility of 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT for staging and risk stratification of treatment-naïve prostate cancer (PCa) and metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Twenty-two consecutive patients with treatment-naïve PCa and 18 with mCRPC were enrolled. 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were performed for the evaluation of primary prostatic lesions, and bone scans were used for evaluation bone metastasis. Among the 40 patients, 37 (92.5% [22 treatment-naïve PCa, 15 mCRPC]) showed PSMA-avid lesions on 68Ga-PSMA-11 images. Only 3 patients with stable mCRPC after chemotherapy were negative for PSMA. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of 68Ga-PSMA-11 imaging were 97.3%, 100.0% and 97.5%, respectively. The maximum standardized uptake (SUVmax) of prostatic lesions was 17.09 ± 11.08 and 13.33 ± 12.31 in treatment-naïve PCa and mCRPC, respectively. 68Ga-PSMA-11 revealed 105 metastatic lymph nodes in 15 patients; the SUVmax was 16.85 ± 9.70 and 7.54 ± 5.20 in treatment-naïve PCa and mCRPC, respectively. 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT also newly detected visceral metastasis in 9 patients (22.5%) and bone metastasis in 29 patients (72.5%). 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT exhibits potential for staging and risk stratification in naïve PCa, as well as improved sensitivity for detection of lymph node and remote metastasis. PMID:28103574

Correction of Population Stratification in Large Multi-Ethnic Association Studies

PubMed Central

Serre, David; Montpetit, Alexandre; Paré, Guillaume; Engert, James C.; Yusuf, Salim; Keavney, Bernard; Hudson, Thomas J.; Anand, Sonia

2008-01-01

Background The vast majority of genetic risk factors for complex diseases have, taken individually, a small effect on the end phenotype. Population-based association studies therefore need very large sample sizes to detect significant differences between affected and non-affected individuals. Including thousands of affected individuals in a study requires recruitment in numerous centers, possibly from different geographic regions. Unfortunately such a recruitment strategy is likely to complicate the study design and to generate concerns regarding population stratification. Methodology/Principal Findings We analyzed 9,751 individuals representing three main ethnic groups - Europeans, Arabs and South Asians - that had been enrolled from 154 centers involving 52 countries for a global case/control study of acute myocardial infarction. All individuals were genotyped at 103 candidate genes using 1,536 SNPs selected with a tagging strategy that captures most of the genetic diversity in different populations. We show that relying solely on self-reported ethnicity is not sufficient to exclude population stratification and we present additional methods to identify and correct for stratification. Conclusions/Significance Our results highlight the importance of carefully addressing population stratification and of carefully “cleaning” the sample prior to analyses to obtain stronger signals of association and to avoid spurious results. PMID:18196181

A novel metric that quantifies risk stratification for evaluating diagnostic tests: The example of evaluating cervical-cancer screening tests across populations.

PubMed

Katki, Hormuzd A; Schiffman, Mark

2018-05-01

Our work involves assessing whether new biomarkers might be useful for cervical-cancer screening across populations with different disease prevalences and biomarker distributions. When comparing across populations, we show that standard diagnostic accuracy statistics (predictive values, risk-differences, Youden's index and Area Under the Curve (AUC)) can easily be misinterpreted. We introduce an intuitively simple statistic for a 2 × 2 table, Mean Risk Stratification (MRS): the average change in risk (pre-test vs. post-test) revealed for tested individuals. High MRS implies better risk separation achieved by testing. MRS has 3 key advantages for comparing test performance across populations with different disease prevalences and biomarker distributions. First, MRS demonstrates that conventional predictive values and the risk-difference do not measure risk-stratification because they do not account for test-positivity rates. Second, Youden's index and AUC measure only multiplicative relative gains in risk-stratification: AUC = 0.6 achieves only 20% of maximum risk-stratification (AUC = 0.9 achieves 80%). Third, large relative gains in risk-stratification might not imply large absolute gains if disease is rare, demonstrating a "high-bar" to justify population-based screening for rare diseases such as cancer. We illustrate MRS by our experience comparing the performance of cervical-cancer screening tests in China vs. the USA. The test with the worst AUC = 0.72 in China (visual inspection with acetic acid) provides twice the risk-stratification (i.e. MRS) of the test with best AUC = 0.83 in the USA (human papillomavirus and Pap cotesting) because China has three times more cervical precancer/cancer. MRS could be routinely calculated to better understand the clinical/public-health implications of standard diagnostic accuracy statistics. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Volumetry based biomarker speed of growth: Quantifying the change of total tumor volume in whole-body magnetic resonance imaging over time improves risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients

PubMed Central

Piraud, Marie; Menze, Bjoern H.; Hielscher, Thomas; Hofmanninger, Johannes; Wagner, Barbara; Kauczor, Hans-Ulrich; Merz, Maximilian; Hillengass, Jens; Langs, Georg; Weber, Marc-André

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to improve risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients, introducing new 3D-volumetry based imaging biomarkers derived from whole-body MRI. Two-hundred twenty whole-body MRIs from 63 patients with smoldering multiple myeloma were retrospectively analyzed and all focal lesions >5mm were manually segmented for volume quantification. The imaging biomarkers total tumor volume, speed of growth (development of the total tumor volume over time), number of focal lesions, development of the number of focal lesions over time and the recent imaging biomarker ‘>1 focal lesion’ of the International Myeloma Working Group were compared, taking 2-year progression rate, sensitivity and false positive rate into account. Speed of growth, using a cutoff of 114mm3/month, was able to isolate a high-risk group with a 2-year progression rate of 82.5%. Additionally, it showed by far the highest sensitivity in this study and in comparison to other biomarkers in the literature, detecting 63.2% of patients who progress within 2 years. Furthermore, its false positive rate (8.7%) was much lower compared to the recent imaging biomarker ‘>1 focal lesion’ of the International Myeloma Working Group. Therefore, speed of growth is the preferable imaging biomarker for risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients. PMID:29861868

Volumetry based biomarker speed of growth: Quantifying the change of total tumor volume in whole-body magnetic resonance imaging over time improves risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients.

PubMed

Wennmann, Markus; Kintzelé, Laurent; Piraud, Marie; Menze, Bjoern H; Hielscher, Thomas; Hofmanninger, Johannes; Wagner, Barbara; Kauczor, Hans-Ulrich; Merz, Maximilian; Hillengass, Jens; Langs, Georg; Weber, Marc-André

2018-05-18

The purpose of this study was to improve risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients, introducing new 3D-volumetry based imaging biomarkers derived from whole-body MRI. Two-hundred twenty whole-body MRIs from 63 patients with smoldering multiple myeloma were retrospectively analyzed and all focal lesions >5mm were manually segmented for volume quantification. The imaging biomarkers total tumor volume, speed of growth (development of the total tumor volume over time), number of focal lesions, development of the number of focal lesions over time and the recent imaging biomarker '>1 focal lesion' of the International Myeloma Working Group were compared, taking 2-year progression rate, sensitivity and false positive rate into account. Speed of growth, using a cutoff of 114mm 3 /month, was able to isolate a high-risk group with a 2-year progression rate of 82.5%. Additionally, it showed by far the highest sensitivity in this study and in comparison to other biomarkers in the literature, detecting 63.2% of patients who progress within 2 years. Furthermore, its false positive rate (8.7%) was much lower compared to the recent imaging biomarker '>1 focal lesion' of the International Myeloma Working Group. Therefore, speed of growth is the preferable imaging biomarker for risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients.

Role of Immune Microenvironmental Factors for Improving the IPI-related Risk Stratification of Aggressive B Cell Lymphoma.

PubMed

Gong, Yi; Chen, Rui; Zhang, Xi; Zou, Zhong Min; Chen, Xing Hua

2017-07-01

To investigate the risk stratification of aggressive B cell lymphoma using the immune microenvironment and clinical factors. A total of 127 patients with aggressive B cell lymphoma between 2014 and 2015 were enrolled in this study. CD4, Foxp3, CD8, CD68, CD163, PD-1, and PD-L1 expression levels were evaluated in paraffin-embedded lymphoma tissues to identify their roles in the risk stratification. Eleven factors were identified for further evaluation using analysis of variance, chi-square, and multinomial logistic regression analysis. Significant differences in 11 factors (age, Ann Arbor stage, B symptom, ECOG performance status, infiltrating CD8+ T cells, PD-L1 expression, absolute blood monocyte count, serum lactate dehydrogenase, serum iron, serum albumin, and serum β2-microglobulin) were observed among patient groups stratified by at least two risk stratification methods [International Prognostic Index (IPI), revised IPI, and NCCN-IPI models] (P < 0.05). Concordance rates were high (81.4%-100.0%) when these factors were used for the risk stratification. No difference in the risk stratification results was observed with or without the Ann Arbor stage data. We developed a convenient and inexpensive tool for use in risk stratification of aggressive B cell lymphomas, although further studies on the role of immune microenvironmental factors are needed. Copyright © 2017 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by China CDC. All rights reserved.

Superiority of delayed risk stratification in differentiated thyroid cancer after total thyroidectomy and radioactive iodine ablation.

PubMed

Hong, Chae Moon; Lee, Won Kee; Jeong, Shin Young; Lee, Sang-Woo; Ahn, Byeong-Cheol; Lee, Jaetae

2014-11-01

The aim of this study was to validate the effectiveness of delayed risk stratification (DRS) in predicting structural progression and compare the predictive value of American Thyroid Association (ATA) risk stratification with that of DRS in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). A total of 398 patients with DTC who underwent surgery followed by radioactive iodine ablation were enrolled. Patients were categorized as having excellent response, acceptable response, biochemical incomplete response, or structural incomplete response at 8-15 months' evaluation after radioactive iodine ablation for DRS. Effectiveness of DRS was evaluated according to structural progression-free survival (PFS; median follow-up, 10.7 years). A total of 229 patients (57.5%) were classified as having excellent response, 78 (19.6%) as having acceptable response, 62 (15.6%) as having biochemical incomplete response, and 29 patients (7.3%) as having structural incomplete response. After DRS, 60.2% of intermediate-risk patients and 20.5% of high-risk patients were shifted to the excellent response category. Sixty-nine patients (17.3%) showed structural progression. DRS showed statistical difference in PFS (hazard ratio, 4.268; 95% confidence interval, 3.258-5.477; P<0.001). In multivariate analysis of ATA risk stratification and DRS, DRS was significantly associated with PFS (hazard ratio, 4.383; 95% confidence interval, 3.250-5.912; P<0.001), but ATA risk stratification was not. There was no significant difference in deviances between the use of DRS alone and the use of both DRS and ATA risk stratification (χ=0.103, d.f.=1, P=0.748). DRS is superior to ATA risk stratification in predicting structural disease progression for DTC patients.

A fast and cost-effective method for apolipoprotein E isotyping as an alternative to APOE genotyping for patient screening and stratification.

PubMed

Calero, Olga; García-Albert, Luis; Rodríguez-Martín, Andrés; Veiga, Sergio; Calero, Miguel

2018-04-13

Apolipoprotein E (apoE) is a 34 kDa glycoprotein involved in lipid metabolism. The human APOE gene encodes for three different apoE protein isoforms: E2, E3 and E4. The interest in apoE isoforms is high for epidemiological research, patient stratification and identification of those at increased risk for clinical trials and prevention. The isoform apoE4 is associated with increased risk for coronary heart and Alzheimer's diseases. This paper describes a method for specifically detecting the apoE4 isoform from biological fluids by taking advantage of the capacity of apoE to bind "specifically" to polystyrene surfaces as capture and a specific anti-apoE4 monoclonal antibody as reporter. Our results indicate that the apoE-polystyrene binding interaction is highly stable, resistant to detergents and acid and basic washes. The methodology here described is accurate, easily implementable, fast and cost-effective. Although at present, our technique is unable to discriminate homozygous APOE ε4/ε4 from APOE ε3/ε4 and ε2/ε4 heterozygous, it opens new avenues for the development of inexpensive, yet effective, tests for the detection of apoE4 for patients' stratification. Preliminary results indicated that this methodology is also adaptable into turbidimetric platforms, which make it a good candidate for clinical implementation through its translation to the clinical analysis routine.

Quantitative risk stratification in Markov chains with limiting conditional distributions.

PubMed

Chan, David C; Pollett, Philip K; Weinstein, Milton C

2009-01-01

Many clinical decisions require patient risk stratification. The authors introduce the concept of limiting conditional distributions, which describe the equilibrium proportion of surviving patients occupying each disease state in a Markov chain with death. Such distributions can quantitatively describe risk stratification. The authors first establish conditions for the existence of a positive limiting conditional distribution in a general Markov chain and describe a framework for risk stratification using the limiting conditional distribution. They then apply their framework to a clinical example of a treatment indicated for high-risk patients, first to infer the risk of patients selected for treatment in clinical trials and then to predict the outcomes of expanding treatment to other populations of risk. For the general chain, a positive limiting conditional distribution exists only if patients in the earliest state have the lowest combined risk of progression or death. The authors show that in their general framework, outcomes and population risk are interchangeable. For the clinical example, they estimate that previous clinical trials have selected the upper quintile of patient risk for this treatment, but they also show that expanded treatment would weakly dominate this degree of targeted treatment, and universal treatment may be cost-effective. Limiting conditional distributions exist in most Markov models of progressive diseases and are well suited to represent risk stratification quantitatively. This framework can characterize patient risk in clinical trials and predict outcomes for other populations of risk.

Comparison of Plasma and Urine Biomarker Performance in Acute Kidney Injury

PubMed Central

Schley, Gunnar; Köberle, Carmen; Manuilova, Ekaterina; Rutz, Sandra; Forster, Christian; Weyand, Michael; Formentini, Ivan; Kientsch-Engel, Rosemarie; Eckardt, Kai-Uwe; Willam, Carsten

2015-01-01

Background New renal biomarkers measured in urine promise to increase specificity for risk stratification and early diagnosis of acute kidney injury (AKI) but concomitantly may be altered by urine concentration effects and chronic renal insufficiency. This study therefore directly compared the performance of AKI biomarkers in urine and plasma. Methods This single-center, prospective cohort study included 110 unselected adults undergoing cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass between 2009 and 2010. Plasma and/or urine concentrations of creatinine, cystatin C, neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), liver fatty acid-binding protein (L-FABP), kidney injury molecule 1 (KIM1), and albumin as well as 15 additional biomarkers in plasma and urine were measured during the perioperative period. The primary outcome was AKI defined by AKIN serum creatinine criteria within 72 hours after surgery. Results Biomarkers in plasma showed markedly better discriminative performance for preoperative risk stratification and early postoperative (within 24h after surgery) detection of AKI than urine biomarkers. Discriminative power of urine biomarkers improved when concentrations were normalized to urinary creatinine, but urine biomarkers had still lower AUC values than plasma biomarkers. Best diagnostic performance 4h after surgery had plasma NGAL (AUC 0.83), cystatin C (0.76), MIG (0.74), and L-FAPB (0.73). Combinations of multiple biomarkers did not improve their diagnostic power. Preoperative clinical scoring systems (EuroSCORE and Cleveland Clinic Foundation Score) predicted the risk for AKI (AUC 0.76 and 0.71) and were not inferior to biomarkers. Preexisting chronic kidney disease limited the diagnostic performance of both plasma and urine biomarkers. Conclusions In our cohort plasma biomarkers had higher discriminative power for risk stratification and early diagnosis of AKI than urine biomarkers. For preoperative risk stratification of AKI clinical models showed similar discriminative performance to biomarkers. The discriminative performance of both plasma and urine biomarkers was reduced by preexisting chronic kidney disease. PMID:26669323

Developing a PTEN-ERG Signature to Improve Molecular Risk Stratification in Prostate Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-10-01

SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT Prostate cancer (PCA) is a clinically and genetically heterogeneous and the development of a molecular classification is...AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-16-1-0739 TITLE: Developing a PTEN-ERG Signature to Improve Molecular Risk Stratification in Prostate Cancer PRINCIPAL...AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Developing a PTEN-ERG Signature to Improve Molecular Risk Stratification in Prostate Cancer 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH

SIOP‐PODC adapted risk stratification and treatment guidelines: Recommendations for neuroblastoma in low‐ and middle‐income settings

PubMed Central

Howard, Scott C.; Chantada, Guillermo; Israels, Trijn; Khattab, Mohammed; Alcasabas, Patricia; Lam, Catherine G.; Faulkner, Lawrence; Park, Julie R.; London, Wendy B.; Matthay, Katherine K.

2015-01-01

Neuroblastoma is the most common extracranial solid tumor in childhood in high‐income countries (HIC), where consistent treatment approaches based on clinical and tumor biological risk stratification have steadily improved outcomes. However, in low‐ and middle‐ income countries (LMIC), suboptimal diagnosis, risk stratification, and treatment may occur due to limited resources and unavailable infrastructure. The clinical practice guidelines outlined in this manuscript are based on current published evidence and expert opinions. Standard risk stratification and treatment explicitly adapted to graduated resource settings can improve outcomes for children with neuroblastoma by reducing preventable toxic death and relapse. Pediatr Blood Cancer 2015;62:1305–1316. © 2015 The Authors. Pediatric Blood & Cancer, published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:25810263

Cardiac risk stratification: Role of the coronary calcium score

PubMed Central

Sharma, Rakesh K; Sharma, Rajiv K; Voelker, Donald J; Singh, Vibhuti N; Pahuja, Deepak; Nash, Teresa; Reddy, Hanumanth K

2010-01-01

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is an integral part of atherosclerotic coronary heart disease (CHD). CHD is the leading cause of death in industrialized nations and there is a constant effort to develop preventative strategies. The emphasis is on risk stratification and primary risk prevention in asymptomatic patients to decrease cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. The Framingham Risk Score predicts CHD events only moderately well where family history is not included as a risk factor. There has been an exploration for new tests for better risk stratification and risk factor modification. While the Framingham Risk Score, European Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation Project, and European Prospective Cardiovascular Munster study remain excellent tools for risk factor modification, the CAC score may have additional benefit in risk assessment. There have been several studies supporting the role of CAC score for prediction of myocardial infarction and cardiovascular mortality. It has been shown to have great scope in risk stratification of asymptomatic patients in the emergency room. Additionally, it may help in assessment of progression or regression of coronary artery disease. Furthermore, the CAC score may help differentiate ischemic from nonischemic cardiomyopathy. PMID:20730016

Integrated e-Health approach based on vascular ultrasound and pulse wave analysis for asymptomatic atherosclerosis detection and cardiovascular risk stratification in the community.

PubMed

Santana, Daniel Bia; Zócalo, Yanina A; Armentano, Ricardo L

2012-03-01

New strategies are urgently needed to identify subjects at increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ACVD) development or complications. A National Public University Center (CUiiDARTE) was created in Uruguay, based on six main pillars: 1) integration of experts in different disciplines and creation of multidisciplinary teams, 2) incidence in public and professional education programs to give training in the use of new technologies and to shift the focus from ACVD treatment to disease prevention, 3) implementation of free vascular studies in the community (distributed rather than centralized healthcare), 4) innovation and application of e-Health and noninvasive technology and approaches, 5) design and development of a biomedical approach to determine the target population and patient workflow, and 6) improvement in individual risk estimation and differentiation between aging and ACVD-related arterial changes using population-based epidemiological and statistical patient-specific models. This work describes main features of CUiiDARTE project implementation, the scientific and technological steps and innovations done for individual risk stratification, and sub-clinical ACVD diagnosis. © 2012 IEEE

CMV-Specific T Cell Monitoring Offers Superior Risk Stratification of CMV-Seronegative Kidney Transplant Recipients of a CMV-Seropositive Donor.

PubMed

Schachtner, Thomas; Stein, Maik; Reinke, Petra

2017-10-01

Detectable cytomegalovirus (CMV)-specific T cells in CMV-seronegative kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) have been attributed to an absence of circulating antibodies despite CMV sensitization. The diagnostic value of CMV-specific T cells, however, needs to be implemented in risk stratification for CMV replication. Three hundred twenty-six KTRs were studied and classified with respect to CMV serostatus and presence of CMV-specific T cells. Samples were collected pretransplantation, at +1, +2, and +3 months posttransplantation. CMV-specific T cells directed to CMV-IE1 and CMV-pp65 were measured by interferon-γ Elispot assay. Nineteen (28%) of 67 D+R- KTRs showed pretransplant CMV-specific T cells. Although no differences were observed for CMV replication, KTRs with CMV-specific T cells presented with lower initial and peak CMV loads (P < 0.05). KTRs with decreasing/undetectable CMV-IE1-specific T cells pretransplantation and posttransplantation were at greatest risk of CMV replication. KTRs with stable/increasing CMV-IE1-specific T cells from pretransplantation to posttransplantation, however, showed low risk of CMV replication (P < 0.001). One hundred sixty-two (80%) of 203 R+ KTRs showed pretransplant CMV-specific T cells. Decreasing/undetectable CMV-IE1-specific T cells from pretransplantation and posttransplantation identified those R+ KTRs at increased risk of CMV replication (65/80 KTRs; 81%; P < 0.001). Despite CMV prophylaxis, D+R- KTRs are at greatest risk of CMV disease. Our data suggest that monitoring CMV-specific T cell kinetics from pretransplantation to posttransplantation, particularly directed to CMV-IE1, offers superior risk stratification compared with CMV serostatus alone.

Molecular tests potentially improving HPV screening and genotyping for cervical cancer prevention

PubMed Central

Gradíssimo, Ana

2018-01-01

INTRODUCTION Human papillomavirus (HPV)-related cancers can be averted by type-specific vaccination (primary prevention) and/or through detection and ablation of precancerous cervical lesions (secondary prevention). This review presents current challenges to cervical cancer screening programs, focusing on recent molecular advances in HPV testing and potential improvements on risk stratification. AREAS COVERED High-risk (HR)-HPV DNA detection has been progressively incorporated into cervix cancer prevention programs based on its increased sensitivity. Advances in next-generation sequencing (NGS) are being rapidly applied to HPV typing. However, current HPV DNA tests lack specificity for identification of cervical precancer (CIN3). HPV typing methods were reviewed based on published literature, with a focus on these applications for screening and risk stratification in the emerging complex clinical scenario post-vaccine introduction. In addition, the potential for NGS technologies to increase specificity is discussed in regards to reflex testing of specimens for emerging biomarkers for cervix precancer/cancer. EXPERT COMMENTARY Integrative multi-disciplinary molecular tests accurately triaging exfoliated cervical specimens will improve cervical cancer prevention programs while simplifying healthcare procedures in HPV-infected women. Hence, the concept of a “liquid-biopsy” (i.e., “molecular” Pap test) highly specific for early identification of cervical precancerous lesions is of critical importance in the years to come. PMID:28277144

Gastric Cancer Screening by Combined Determination of Serum Helicobacter pylori Antibody and Pepsinogen Concentrations: ABC Method for Gastric Cancer Screening.

PubMed

Chen, Xian-Zhe; Huang, Cheng-Zhi; Hu, Wei-Xian; Liu, Ying; Yao, Xue-Qing

2018-05-20

Gastroscopy combined with gastric mucosa biopsies is currently regarded as a gold standard for diagnosis of gastric cancer. However, its application is restricted in clinical practice due to its invasive property. A new noninvasive population screening process combining the assay of anti-Helicobacter pylori antibody and serum pepsinogen (PG) (ABC method) is adopted to recognize the high-risk patients for further endoscopy examination, avoiding the unnecessary gastroscopy for most population and saving the cost consumption for mass screening annually. Nevertheless, controversies exist for the grouping of ABC method and the intervals of gastroscopy surveillance for each group. In this review, we summarized these popular concerned topics for providing useful references to the healthcare practitioner in clinical practice. The PubMed databases were systematically searched from the inception dates to November 22, 2017, using the keywords "Helicobacter pylori," "Pepsinogens," and "Stomach Neoplasms." Original articles and reviews on the topics were selected. Anti-H. pylori antibody and serum PG concentration showed significant changes under the different status of H. pylori infection and the progression of atrophic gastritis, which can be used for risk stratification of gastric cancer in clinic. In addition, anti-H. pylori antibody titer can be used for further risk stratification of gastric cancer contributing to determine better endoscopy surveillance interval. The early detection and diagnosis of gastric cancer benefit from the risk stratification, but the cutoff values for H. pylori antibody and serum PG concentration require further modification.

The Auckland Cataract Study II: Reducing Complications by Preoperative Risk Stratification and Case Allocation in a Teaching Hospital.

PubMed

Kim, Bia Z; Patel, Dipika V; McKelvie, James; Sherwin, Trevor; McGhee, Charles N J

2017-09-01

To assess the effect of preoperative risk stratification for phacoemulsification surgery on intraoperative complications in a teaching hospital. Prospective cohort study. Prospective assessment of consecutive phacoemulsification cases (N = 500) enabled calculation of a risk score (M-score of 0-8) using a risk stratification system. M-scores of >3 were allocated to senior surgeons. All surgeries were performed in a public teaching hospital setting, Auckland, New Zealand, in early 2016. Postoperatively, data were reviewed for complications and corrected distance visual acuity (CDVA). Results were compared to a prospective study (N = 500, phase 1) performed prior to formal introduction of risk stratification. Intraoperative complications increased with increasing M-scores (P = .044). Median M-score for complicated cases was higher (P = .022). Odds ratio (OR) for a complication increased 1.269 per unit increase in M-score (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.007-1.599, P = .043). Overall rate of any intraoperative complication was 5.0%. Intraoperative complication rates decreased from 8.4% to 5.0% (OR = 0.576, P = .043) comparing phase 1 and phase 2 (formal introduction of risk stratification). The severity of complications also reduced. A significant decrease in complications for M = 0 (ie, minimal risk cases) was also identified comparing the current study (3.1%) to phase 1 (7.2%), P = .034. There was no change in postoperative complication risks (OR 0.812, P = .434) or in mean postoperative CDVA (20/30, P = .484) comparing current with phase 1 outcomes. A simple preoperative risk stratification system, based on standard patient information gathered at preoperative consultation, appears to reduce intraoperative complications and support safer surgical training by appropriate allocation of higher-risk cases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validating a Local Failure Risk Stratification for Use in Prospective Studies of Adjuvant Radiation Therapy for Bladder Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baumann, Brian C.; He, Jiwei; Hwang, Wei-Ting

Purpose: To inform prospective trials of adjuvant radiation therapy (adj-RT) for bladder cancer after radical cystectomy, a locoregional failure (LF) risk stratification was proposed. This stratification was developed and validated using surgical databases that may not reflect the outcomes expected in prospective trials. Our purpose was to assess sources of bias that may affect the stratification model's validity or alter the LF risk estimates for each subgroup: time bias due to evolving surgical techniques; trial accrual bias due to inclusion of patients who would be ineligible for adj-RT trials because of early disease progression, death, or loss to follow-up shortlymore » after cystectomy; bias due to different statistical methods to estimate LF; and subgrouping bias due to different definitions of the LF subgroups. Methods and Materials: The LF risk stratification was developed using a single-institution cohort (n=442, 1990-2008) and the multi-institutional SWOG 8710 cohort (n=264, 1987-1998) treated with radical cystectomy with or without chemotherapy. We evaluated the sensitivity of the stratification to sources of bias using Fine-Gray regression and Kaplan-Meier analyses. Results: Year of radical cystectomy was not associated with LF risk on univariate or multivariate analysis after controlling for risk group. By use of more stringent inclusion criteria, 26 SWOG patients (10%) and 60 patients from the single-institution cohort (14%) were excluded. Analysis of the remaining patients confirmed 3 subgroups with significantly different LF risks with 3-year rates of 7%, 17%, and 36%, respectively (P<.01), nearly identical to the rates without correcting for trial accrual bias. Kaplan-Meier techniques estimated higher subgroup LF rates than competing risk analysis. The subgroup definitions used in the NRG-GU001 adj-RT trial were validated. Conclusions: These sources of bias did not invalidate the LF risk stratification or substantially change the model's LF estimates.« less

Contemporary post surgical management of differentiated thyroid carcinoma.

PubMed

Tala, H; Tuttle, R M

2010-08-01

Risk assessment is the cornerstone of contemporary management of thyroid cancer. Following thyroid surgery, an initial risk assessment of recurrence and disease-specific mortality is made using important intra-operative findings, histologic characteristics of the tumor, molecular profile of the tumor, post-operative serum thyroglobulin and any available cross-sectional imaging studies. This initial risk assessment is used to guide recommendations regarding the need for remnant ablation, external beam irradiation, systemic therapy, degree of TSH suppression, and follow-up disease detection strategy over the first 2 years after initial therapy. While this initial risk stratification provides valuable information, it is a static representation of the patient in the first few weeks post-operatively that does not change over time. Depending on how the patient responds to our initial therapies, the risk of recurrence and death may change significantly during follow-up. In order to account for differences in response to therapy in individual patients and to incorporate the impact of treatment on our initial risk estimates, we recommend a re-stratification of risk at the 2-year point of follow-up. This re-stratification provides an updated risk estimate that can be used to guide ongoing management recommendations including the frequency and intensity of follow-up, degree of ongoing TSH suppression, and need for additional therapies. Ongoing management recommendations must be tailored to realistic, evolving risk estimates that are actively updated during follow-up. By individualizing therapy on the basis of initial and ongoing risk assessments, we can maximize the beneficial effects of aggressive therapy in patients with thyroid cancer who are likely to benefit from it, while minimizing potential complications and side effects in low-risk patients destined to have a full healthy and productive life after minimal therapeutic intervention. Copyright (c) 2010 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Barrett’s oesophagus: Current controversies

PubMed Central

Amadi, Chidi; Gatenby, Piers

2017-01-01

Oesophageal adenocarcinoma is rapidly increasing in Western countries. This tumour frequently presents late in its course with metastatic disease and has a very poor prognosis. Barrett’s oesophagus is an acquired condition whereby the native squamous mucosa of the lower oesophagus is replaced by columnar epithelium following prolonged gastro-oesophageal reflux and is the recognised precursor lesion for oesophageal adenocarcinoma. There are multiple national and society guidelines regarding screening, surveillance and management of Barrett’s oesophagus, however all are limited regarding a clear evidence base for a well-demonstrated benefit and cost-effectiveness of surveillance, and robust risk stratification for patients to best use resources. Currently the accepted risk factors upon which surveillance intervals and interventions are based are Barrett’s segment length and histological interpretation of the systematic biopsies. Further patient risk factors including other demographic features, smoking, gender, obesity, ethnicity, patient age, biomarkers and endoscopic adjuncts remain under consideration and are discussed in full. Recent evidence has been published to support earlier endoscopic intervention by means of ablation of the metaplastic Barrett’s segment when the earliest signs of dysplasia are detected. Further work should concentrate on establishing better risk stratification and primary and secondary preventative strategies to reduce the risk of adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus. PMID:28811703

Barrett's oesophagus: Current controversies.

PubMed

Amadi, Chidi; Gatenby, Piers

2017-07-28

Oesophageal adenocarcinoma is rapidly increasing in Western countries. This tumour frequently presents late in its course with metastatic disease and has a very poor prognosis. Barrett's oesophagus is an acquired condition whereby the native squamous mucosa of the lower oesophagus is replaced by columnar epithelium following prolonged gastro-oesophageal reflux and is the recognised precursor lesion for oesophageal adenocarcinoma. There are multiple national and society guidelines regarding screening, surveillance and management of Barrett's oesophagus, however all are limited regarding a clear evidence base for a well-demonstrated benefit and cost-effectiveness of surveillance, and robust risk stratification for patients to best use resources. Currently the accepted risk factors upon which surveillance intervals and interventions are based are Barrett's segment length and histological interpretation of the systematic biopsies. Further patient risk factors including other demographic features, smoking, gender, obesity, ethnicity, patient age, biomarkers and endoscopic adjuncts remain under consideration and are discussed in full. Recent evidence has been published to support earlier endoscopic intervention by means of ablation of the metaplastic Barrett's segment when the earliest signs of dysplasia are detected. Further work should concentrate on establishing better risk stratification and primary and secondary preventative strategies to reduce the risk of adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus.

Noninvasive risk stratification for sudden death in asymptomatic patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome.

PubMed

Novella, John; DeBiasi, Ralph M; Coplan, Neil L; Suri, Ranji; Keller, Seth

2014-01-01

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) as the first clinical manifestation of Wolff-Parkinson-White (WPW) syndrome is a well-documented, although rare occurrence. The incidence of SCD in patients with WPW ranges from 0% to 0.39% annually. Controversy exists regarding risk stratification for patients with preexcitation on surface electrocardiogram (ECG), particularly in those who are asymptomatic. This article focuses on the role of risk stratification using exercise and pharmacologic testing in patients with WPW pattern on ECG.

Prospective Validation of ATA and ETA Sonographic Pattern Risk of Thyroid Nodules Selected for FNAC.

PubMed

Maino, Fabio; Forleo, Raffaella; Martinelli, Martina; Fralassi, Noemi; Barbato, Filomena; Pilli, Tania; Capezzone, Marco; Brilli, Lucia; Ciuoli, Cristina; Di Cairano, Giovanni; Nigi, Laura; Pacini, Furio; Castagna, Maria Grazia

2018-06-01

Recently, the American Thyroid Association (ATA) and the European Thyroid Association (ETA) have proposed that thyroid ultrasound (US) should be used to stratify the risk of malignancy in thyroid nodules and to aid decision-making about whether fine-needle aspiration cytology (FNAC) is indicated. To validate and to compare the ATA and ETA US risk stratification systems of thyroid nodules in a prospective series of thyroid nodules submitted to FNAC. We prospectively evaluated 432 thyroid nodules selected for FNAC from 340 patients. Cytology reports were based on the five categories according to the criteria of the British Thyroid Association. The proportion of Thy2 nodules decreased significantly, whereas the proportion of Thy4/Thy5 nodules significantly increased with increasing US risk class (P < 0.0001). The ability to identify benign and malignant nodules was similar between ATA and ETA systems. According to ATA and ETA US risk stratification systems, 23.7% and 56.0% nodules did not meet the criteria for FNAC, respectively. Considering only categories at lower risk of malignancy, the cumulative malignancy rate in these nodules was 1.2% for ATA and 1.7% for ETA US risk stratification systems. ETA and ATA US risk stratification systems provide effective malignancy risk stratification for thyroid nodules. In clinical practice, using this approach, we should be able to reduce the number of unnecessary FNAC without losing clinically relevant thyroid cancer.

The Auckland Cataract Study: Assessing Preoperative Risk Stratification Systems for Phacoemulsification Surgery in a Teaching Hospital.

PubMed

Kim, Bia Z; Patel, Dipika V; Sherwin, Trevor; McGhee, Charles N J

2016-11-01

To evaluate 2 preoperative risk stratification systems for assessing the risk of complications in phacoemulsification cataract surgery, performed by residents, fellows, and attending physicians in a public teaching hospital. Cohort study. One observer assessed the clinical data of 500 consecutive cases, prior to phacoemulsification cataract surgery performed between April and June 2015 at Greenlane Clinical Centre, Auckland, New Zealand. Preoperatively 2 risk scores were calculated for each case using the Muhtaseb and Buckinghamshire risk stratification systems. Complications, intraoperative and postoperative, and visual outcomes were analyzed in relation to these risk scores. Intraoperative complication rates increased with higher risk scores using the Muhtaseb or Buckinghamshire stratification system (P = .001 and P = .003, respectively, n = 500). The odds ratios for residents and fellows were not significantly different from attending physicians after case-mix adjustment according to risk scores (P > .05). Postoperative complication rates increased with higher Buckinghamshire risk scores but not with Muhtaseb scores (P = .014 and P = .094, respectively, n = 476). Postoperative corrected-distance visual acuity was poorer with higher risk scores (P < .001 for both, n = 476). This study confirms that the risk of intraoperative complications increases with higher preoperative risk scores. Furthermore, higher risk scores correlate with poorer postoperative visual acuity and the Buckinghamshire risk score also correlates with postoperative complications. Therefore, preoperative assessment using such risk stratification systems could assist individual informed consent, preoperative surgical planning, safe allocation of cases to trainees, and more meaningful analyses of outcomes for individual surgeons and institutions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Detection and risk stratification of women at high risk of preterm birth in rural communities near Nagpur, India.

PubMed

Patel, Archana; Prakash, Amber Abhijeet; Pusdekar, Yamini V; Kulkarni, Hemant; Hibberd, Patricia

2017-09-19

Presently, preterm birth is globally the leading cause of neonatal mortality. Prompt community based identification of women at high risk for preterm births (HRPB) can either help to avert preterm births or avail effective interventions to reduce neonatal mortality due to preterm births. We evaluated the performance of a package to train community workers to detect the presence of signs or symptoms of HRPB. Pregnant women enrolled in the intervention arm of a cluster randomized trial of Antenatal Corticosteroids (ACT Trial) conducted at Nagpur, India were informed about 4 directly observable signs and symptoms of preterm labor. Community health workers actively monitored these women from 24 to 36 weeks of gestation for these signs or symptoms. If they were present (HRPB positive) the identified women were brought to government health facilities for assessment and management. HRPB positive could also be determined by the provider if the woman presented directly to the facility. Risk stratification was based on the number of signs or symptoms present. The outcome of preterm birth was based on the clinical assessment of gestational age < 37 weeks at delivery or a birth weight of <2000 g. Between July 1, 2012 and 30 November, 2013, 686 of 7050 (9.7%) pregnant women studied, delivered preterm. 732 (10.4%) women were HRPB positive, of whom 333 (45.5%) delivered preterm. Of the remaining 6318(89.6%) HRPB negative women 353 (5.6%) delivered preterm. The likelihood ratio (LR) of a preterm birth in the HRPB positives was 8.14 (95% confidence interval 7.16-9.26). The LR of a preterm birth increased in women who had more signs or symptoms of HRBP (p < 0.00001). More signs or symptoms of HRPB were also associated with a shorter time to delivery, lower birth weight and higher rates of stillbirths, neonatal deaths and postnatal complications. Addition of risk stratification improved the prediction of preterm delivery (Integrated Discrimination Improvement 17% (95% CI 15-19%)). The package for detection of signs and symptoms of HRPB is feasible, promising and likely to improve management of preterm labor. NCT01073475 on February 21, 2010 and NCT01084096 on March 9, 2010.

Risk Stratification Methods and Provision of Care Management Services in Comprehensive Primary Care Initiative Practices.

PubMed

Reddy, Ashok; Sessums, Laura; Gupta, Reshma; Jin, Janel; Day, Tim; Finke, Bruce; Bitton, Asaf

2017-09-01

Risk-stratified care management is essential to improving population health in primary care settings, but evidence is limited on the type of risk stratification method and its association with care management services. We describe risk stratification patterns and association with care management services for primary care practices in the Comprehensive Primary Care (CPC) initiative. We undertook a qualitative approach to categorize risk stratification methods being used by CPC practices and tested whether these stratification methods were associated with delivery of care management services. CPC practices reported using 4 primary methods to stratify risk for their patient populations: a practice-developed algorithm (n = 215), the American Academy of Family Physicians' clinical algorithm (n = 155), payer claims and electronic health records (n = 62), and clinical intuition (n = 52). CPC practices using practice-developed algorithm identified the most number of high-risk patients per primary care physician (282 patients, P = .006). CPC practices using clinical intuition had the most high-risk patients in care management and a greater proportion of high-risk patients receiving care management per primary care physician (91 patients and 48%, P =.036 and P =.128, respectively). CPC practices used 4 primary methods to identify high-risk patients. Although practices that developed their own algorithm identified the greatest number of high-risk patients, practices that used clinical intuition connected the greatest proportion of patients to care management services. © 2017 Annals of Family Medicine, Inc.

Risk stratification of thyroid nodules on ultrasonography with the French TI-RADS: description and reflections

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The widespread use of ultrasonography places it in a key position for use in the risk stratification of thyroid nodules. The French proposal is a five-tier system, our version of a thyroid imaging reporting and database system (TI-RADS), which includes a standardized vocabulary and report and a quantified risk assessment. It allows the selection of the nodules that should be referred for fine-needle aspiration biopsies. Effort should be directed towards merging the different risk stratification systems utilized around the world and testing this unified system with multi-center studies. PMID:26324117

Risk assessment and clinical decision making for colorectal cancer screening.

PubMed

Schroy, Paul C; Caron, Sarah E; Sherman, Bonnie J; Heeren, Timothy C; Battaglia, Tracy A

2015-10-01

Shared decision making (SDM) related to test preference has been advocated as a potentially effective strategy for increasing adherence to colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, yet primary care providers (PCPs) are often reluctant to comply with patient preferences if they differ from their own. Risk stratification advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) provides a rational strategy for reconciling these differences. To assess the importance of risk stratification in PCP decision making related to test preference for average-risk patients and receptivity to use of an electronic risk assessment tool for ACN to facilitate SDM. Mixed methods, including qualitative key informant interviews and a cross-sectional survey. PCPs at an urban, academic safety-net institution. Screening preferences, factors influencing patient recommendations and receptivity to use of a risk stratification tool. Nine PCPs participated in interviews and 57 completed the survey. Despite an overwhelming preference for colonoscopy by 95% of respondents, patient risk (67%) and patient preferences (63%) were more influential in their decision making than patient comorbidities (31%; P < 0.001). Age was the single most influential risk factor (excluding family history), with <20% of respondents choosing factors other than age. Most respondents reported that they would be likely to use a risk stratification tool in their practice either 'often' (43%) or sometimes (53%). Risk stratification was perceived to be important in clinical decision making, yet few providers considered risk factors other than age for average-risk patients. Providers were receptive to the use of a risk assessment tool for ACN when recommending an appropriate screening test for select patients. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

State of the Art: Blood Biomarkers for Risk Stratification in Patients with Stable Ischemic Heart Disease.

PubMed

Omland, Torbjørn; White, Harvey D

2017-01-01

Multiple circulating biomarkers have been associated with the incidence of cardiovascular events and proposed as potential tools for risk stratification in stable ischemic heart disease (IHD), yet current guidelines do not make any firm recommendations concerning the use of biomarkers for risk stratification in this setting. This state-of-the-art review provides an overview of biomarkers for risk stratification in stable IHD. Circulating biomarkers associated with the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with stable IHD reflect different pathophysiological processes, including myocardial injury, myocardial stress and remodeling, metabolic status, vascular inflammation, and oxidative stress. Compared to the primary prevention setting, biomarkers reflecting end-organ damage and future risk of heart failure development and cardiovascular death may play more important roles in the stable IHD setting. Accordingly, biomarkers that reflect chronic, low-grade myocardial injury, and stress, i.e., high-sensitivity cardiac troponins and natriuretic peptides, provide graded and incremental prognostic information to conventional risk markers. In contrast, in stable IHD patients the prognostic value of traditional metabolic biomarkers, including serum lipids, is limited. Among several novel biomarkers, growth-differentiation factor-15 may provide the most robust prognostic information, whereas most inflammatory markers provide limited incremental prognostic information to risk factor models that include conventional risk factors, natriuretic peptides, and high-sensitivity troponins. Circulating biomarkers hold promise as useful tools for risk stratification in stable IHD, but their future incorporation into clinically useful risk scores will depend on prospective, rigorously performed clinical trials that document enhanced risk prediction. © 2016 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

Nonobstructive Coronary Artery Disease by Coronary CT Angiography Improves Risk Stratification and Allocation of Statin Therapy.

PubMed

Emami, Hamed; Takx, Richard A P; Mayrhofer, Thomas; Janjua, Sumbal; Park, Jakob; Pursnani, Amit; Tawakol, Ahmed; Lu, Michael T; Ferencik, Maros; Hoffmann, Udo

2017-09-01

This study sought to determine prognostic value of nonobstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events and to determine whether incorporation of this information into the pooled cohort equation reclassifies recommendations for statin therapy as defined by the 2013 guidelines for cholesterol management of the American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association (ACC/AHA). Detection of nonobstructive CAD by coronary computed tomography angiography may improve risk stratification and permit individualized and more appropriate allocation of statin therapy. This study determined the pooled hazard ratio of nonobstructive CAD for ASCVD events from published studies and incorporated this information into the ACC/AHA pooled cohort equation. The study calculated revised sex- and ethnicity-based 10-year ASCVD risk and determined boundaries corresponding to the original 7.5% risk for ASCVD events. It also assessed reclassification for statin eligibility by incorporating the results from meta-analysis to individual patients from a separate cohort. This study included 2 studies (2,295 subjects; 66% male; prevalence of nonobstructive CAD, 47%; median follow-up, 49 months; 67 ASCVD events). The hazard ratio of nonobstructive CAD for ASCVD events was 3.2 (95% confidence interval: 1.5 to 6.7). Incorporation of this information into the pooled cohort equation resulted in reclassification toward statin eligibility in individuals with nonobstructive CAD, with an original ASCVD score of 3.0% and 5.9% or higher in African-American women and men and a score of 4.4% and 4.6% or higher in Caucasian women and men, respectively. The absence of nonobstructive CAD resulted in reclassification toward statin ineligibility if the original ASCVD score was as 10.0% and 17.9% or lower in African-American women and men and 13.7% and 14.3% or lower in Caucasian women and men, respectively. Reclassification is observed in 14% of patients. Detection of nonobstructive CAD by coronary computed tomography angiography improves risk stratification and permits individualized and more appropriate allocation of statin therapy across sex and ethnicity groups. Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stratification strategy for evaluating the influence of diabetes complication severity index on the risk of hospitalization: a record linkage data in Western Australia.

PubMed

Ha, Ninh Thi; Harris, Mark; Robinson, Suzanne; Preen, David; Moorin, Rachael

2017-07-01

This study aimed to develop a risk stratification strategy for evaluating the relationship between complications of diabetes and the risk of diabetic-related hospitalization to accurately classify diabetes severity. The study used administrative health records for 40,624 individuals with diabetes aged ≥18years in Western Australian. The adapted Diabetes Complication Severity Index (DCSI), socio-demographic and clinical characteristics were used in random effects negative binomial and threshold effect models to determine the optimal stratification strategy for diabetes severity based on the homogeneity of the risk of hospitalization in response to variation of the DCSI. The optimal stratification of people with diabetes was specified by four sub-populations. The first sub-population was no complications with an inverse association with the risk of hospitalizations (coefficient-0.247, SE 0.03). Further three sub-populations with DCSI at one (coefficient 0.289, SE 0.01), two (coefficient 0.339, SE 0.01) and three or more (coefficient 0.381, SE 0.01) were used to accurately describe the impact of DCSI on the risk of hospitalization. A stratification into four subpopulations based on the homogeneous impact of diabetes DCSI on the risk of hospitalization may be more suitable for evaluating health care interventions and planning health care provision. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

New Methods for the Analysis of Heartbeat Behavior in Risk Stratification

PubMed Central

Glass, Leon; Lerma, Claudia; Shrier, Alvin

2011-01-01

Developing better methods for risk stratification for tachyarrhythmic sudden cardiac remains a major challenge for physicians and scientists. Since the transition from sinus rhythm to ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation happens by different mechanisms in different people, it is unrealistic to think that a single measure will be adequate to provide a good index for risk stratification. We analyze the dynamical properties of ventricular premature complexes over 24 h in an effort to understand the underlying mechanisms of ventricular arrhythmias and to better understand the arrhythmias that occur in individual patients. Two dimensional density plots, called heartprints, correlate characteristic features of the dynamics of premature ventricular complexes and the sinus rate. Heartprints show distinctive characteristics in individual patients. Based on a better understanding of the natures of transitions from sinus rhythm to sudden cardiac and the mechanisms of arrhythmia prior to cardiac arrest, it should be possible to develop better methods for risk stratification. PMID:22144963

Predictors of Post-discharge Mortality Among Patients Hospitalized for Acute Heart Failure

PubMed Central

Collins, Sean P; Greene, Stephen J; Pang, Peter S; Ambrosy, Andrew P; Antohi, Elena-Laura; Vaduganathan, Muthiah; Butler, Javed; Gheorghiade, Mihai

2017-01-01

Acute Heart Failure (AHF) is a “ multi-event disease” and hospitalisation is a critical event in the clinical course of HF. Despite relatively rapid relief of symptoms, hospitalisation for AHF is followed by an increased risk of death and re-hospitalisation. In AHF, risk stratification from clinically available data is increasingly important in evaluating long-term prognosis. From the perspective of patients, information on the risk of mortality and re-hospitalisation would be helpful in providing patients with insight into their disease. From the perspective of care providers, it may facilitate management decisions, such as who needs to be admitted and to what level of care (i.e. floor, step-down, ICU). Furthermore, risk-stratification may help identify patients who need to be evaluated for advanced HF therapies (i.e. left-ventricle assistance device or transplant or palliative care), and patients who need early a post-discharge follow-up plan. Finally, risk stratification will allow for more robust efforts to identify among risk markers the true targets for therapies that may direct treatment strategies to selected high-risk patients. Further clinical research will be needed to evaluate if appropriate risk stratification of patients could improve clinical outcome and resources allocation. PMID:29387465

Risk Stratification and Shared Decision Making for Colorectal Cancer Screening: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Schroy, Paul C; Duhovic, Emir; Chen, Clara A; Heeren, Timothy C; Lopez, William; Apodaca, Danielle L; Wong, John B

2016-05-01

Eliciting patient preferences within the context of shared decision making has been advocated for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, yet providers often fail to comply with patient preferences that differ from their own. To determine whether risk stratification for advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) influences provider willingness to comply with patient preferences when selecting a desired CRC screening option. Randomized controlled trial. Asymptomatic, average-risk patients due for CRC screening in an urban safety net health care setting. Patients were randomized 1:1 to a decision aid alone (n= 168) or decision aid plus risk assessment (n= 173) arm between September 2012 and September 2014. The primary outcome was concordance between patient preference and test ordered; secondary outcomes included patient satisfaction with the decision-making process, screening intentions, test completion rates, and provider satisfaction. Although providers perceived risk stratification to be useful in selecting an appropriate screening test for their average-risk patients, no significant differences in concordance were observed between the decision aid alone and decision aid plus risk assessment groups (88.1% v. 85.0%,P= 0.40) or high- and low-risk groups (84.5% v. 87.1%,P= 0.51). Concordance was highest for colonoscopy and relatively low for tests other than colonoscopy, regardless of study arm or risk group. Failure to comply with patient preferences was negatively associated with satisfaction with the decision-making process, screening intentions, and test completion rates. Single-institution setting; lack of provider education about the utility of risk stratification into their decision making. Providers perceived risk stratification to be useful in their decision making but often failed to comply with patient preferences for tests other than colonoscopy, even among those deemed to be at low risk of ACN. © The Author(s) 2016.

Segmented Poincaré plot analysis for risk stratification in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Voss, A; Fischer, C; Schroeder, R; Figulla, H R; Goernig, M

2010-01-01

The prognostic value of heart rate variability in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is limited and does not contribute to risk stratification although the dynamics of ventricular repolarization differs considerably between DCM patients and healthy subjects. Neither linear nor nonlinear methods of heart rate variability analysis could discriminate between patients at high and low risk for sudden cardiac death. The aim of this study was to analyze the suitability of the new developed segmented Poincaré plot analysis (SPPA) to enhance risk stratification in DCM. In contrast to the usual applied Poincaré plot analysis the SPPA retains nonlinear features from investigated beat-to-beat interval time series. Main features of SPPA are the rotation of cloud of points and their succeeded variability depended segmentation. Significant row and column probabilities were calculated from the segments and led to discrimination (up to p<0.005) between low and high risk in DCM patients. For the first time an index from Poincaré plot analysis of heart rate variability was able to contribute to risk stratification in patients suffering from DCM.

Cardiac PET/CT for the Evaluation of Known or Suspected Coronary Artery Disease

PubMed Central

Murthy, Venkatesh L.

2011-01-01

Positron emission tomography (PET) is increasingly being applied in the evaluation of myocardial perfusion. Cardiac PET can be performed with an increasing variety of cyclotron- and generator-produced radiotracers. Compared with single photon emission computed tomography, PET offers lower radiation exposure, fewer artifacts, improved spatial resolution, and, most important, improved diagnostic performance. With its capacity to quantify rest–peak stress left ventricular systolic function as well as coronary flow reserve, PET is superior to other methods for the detection of multivessel coronary artery disease and, potentially, for risk stratification. Coronary artery calcium scoring may be included for further risk stratification in patients with normal perfusion imaging findings. Furthermore, PET allows quantification of absolute myocardial perfusion, which also carries substantial prognostic value. Hybrid PET–computed tomography scanners allow functional evaluation of myocardial perfusion combined with anatomic characterization of the epicardial coronary arteries, thereby offering great potential for both diagnosis and management. Additional studies to further validate the prognostic value and cost effectiveness of PET are warranted. © RSNA, 2011 PMID:21918042

Risk stratification using SpO2/FiO2 and PEEP at initial ARDS diagnosis and after 24 h in patients with moderate or severe ARDS.

PubMed

Pisani, Luigi; Roozeman, Jan-Paul; Simonis, Fabienne D; Giangregorio, Antonio; van der Hoeven, Sophia M; Schouten, Laura R; Horn, Janneke; Neto, Ary Serpa; Festic, Emir; Dondorp, Arjen M; Grasso, Salvatore; Bos, Lieuwe D; Schultz, Marcus J

2017-10-25

We assessed the potential of risk stratification of ARDS patients using SpO 2 /FiO 2 and positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) at ARDS onset and after 24 h. We used data from a prospective observational study in patients admitted to a mixed medical-surgical intensive care unit of a university hospital in the Netherlands. Risk stratification was by cutoffs for SpO 2 /FiO 2 and PEEP. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Patients with moderate or severe ARDS with a length of stay of > 24 h were included in this study. Patients were assigned to four predefined risk groups: group I (SpO 2 /FiO 2  ≥ 190 and PEEP < 10 cm H 2 O), group II (SpO 2 /FiO 2  ≥ 190 and PEEP ≥ 10 cm), group III (SpO 2 /FiO 2  < 190 and PEEP < 10 cm H 2 O) and group IV (SpO 2 /FiO 2  < 190 and PEEP ≥ 10 cm H 2 O). The analysis included 456 patients. SpO 2 /FiO 2 and PaO 2 /FiO 2 had a strong relationship (P < 0.001, R 2  = 0.676) that could be described in a linear regression equation (SpO 2 /FiO 2  = 42.6 + 1.0 * PaO 2 /FiO 2 ). Risk stratification at initial ARDS diagnosis resulted in groups that had no differences in in-hospital mortality. Risk stratification at 24 h resulted in groups with increasing mortality rates. The association between group assignment at 24 h and outcome was confounded by several factors, including APACHE IV scores, arterial pH and plasma lactate levels, and vasopressor therapy. In this cohort of patients with moderate or severe ARDS, SpO 2 /FiO 2 and PaO 2 /FiO 2 have a strong linear relationship. In contrast to risk stratification at initial ARDS diagnosis, risk stratification using SpO 2 /FiO 2 and PEEP after 24 h resulted in groups with worsening outcomes. Risk stratification using SpO 2 /FiO 2 and PEEP could be practical, especially in resource-limited settings.

Utility of Risk Stratification for Paclitaxel Hypersensitivity Reactions.

PubMed

Otani, Iris M; Lax, Timothy; Long, Aidan A; Slawski, Benjamin R; Camargo, Carlos A; Banerji, Aleena

2017-10-03

Hypersensitivity reactions (HSRs) are a common impediment to paclitaxel therapy. Management strategies to guide care after a paclitaxel-induced HSR are needed. The objective was to evaluate the utility and safety of risk stratification on the basis of severity of the initial HSR. A risk stratification pathway was developed on the basis of a retrospective review of the management and outcome of 130 patients with paclitaxel-induced HSRs at Massachusetts General Hospital. This pathway was then studied prospectively in patients referred to Allergy/Immunology with paclitaxel-induced HSRs. The study population (n = 35) had a mean age of 56.1 ± 12 years and most were women (n = 33 [94%]). All 5 patients (15%) with grade 1 initial HSRs were successfully reexposed to paclitaxel, 1 patient at the standard infusion rate and 4 patients at 50% of the standard infusion rate. Thirty patients (85%) with grade 2 to 4 initial HSRs underwent initial paclitaxel desensitization based on the risk stratification pathway. No patients developed severe HSRs using the pathway. Eleven (31%) patients had HSRs that were mild to moderate in nature (grade 1, n = 4 [11%]; grade 2, n = 6 [17%]; grade 3, n = 1 [3%]) during their first desensitization. Sixteen (46%) of the 35 patients safely returned to the outpatient infusion setting for paclitaxel treatment at 50% of the standard infusion rate. Seven (20%) discontinued paclitaxel before the completion of the risk stratification pathway because of disease progression, completion of therapy, or death. A management strategy using the initial HSR severity for risk stratification allowed patients to receive paclitaxel safely. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Short-term vs. long-term heart rate variability in ischemic cardiomyopathy risk stratification.

PubMed

Voss, Andreas; Schroeder, Rico; Vallverdú, Montserrat; Schulz, Steffen; Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Vázquez, Rafael; Bayés de Luna, Antoni; Caminal, Pere

2013-01-01

In industrialized countries with aging populations, heart failure affects 0.3-2% of the general population. The investigation of 24 h-ECG recordings revealed the potential of nonlinear indices of heart rate variability (HRV) for enhanced risk stratification in patients with ischemic heart failure (IHF). However, long-term analyses are time-consuming, expensive, and delay the initial diagnosis. The objective of this study was to investigate whether 30 min short-term HRV analysis is sufficient for comparable risk stratification in IHF in comparison to 24 h-HRV analysis. From 256 IHF patients [221 at low risk (IHFLR) and 35 at high risk (IHFHR)] (a) 24 h beat-to-beat time series (b) the first 30 min segment (c) the 30 min most stationary day segment and (d) the 30 min most stationary night segment were investigated. We calculated linear (time and frequency domain) and nonlinear HRV analysis indices. Optimal parameter sets for risk stratification in IHF were determined for 24 h and for each 30 min segment by applying discriminant analysis on significant clinical and non-clinical indices. Long- and short-term HRV indices from frequency domain and particularly from nonlinear dynamics revealed high univariate significances (p < 0.01) discriminating between IHFLR and IHFHR. For multivariate risk stratification, optimal mixed parameter sets consisting of 5 indices (clinical and nonlinear) achieved 80.4% AUC (area under the curve of receiver operating characteristics) from 24 h HRV analysis, 84.3% AUC from first 30 min, 82.2 % AUC from daytime 30 min and 81.7% AUC from nighttime 30 min. The optimal parameter set obtained from the first 30 min showed nearly the same classification power when compared to the optimal 24 h-parameter set. As results from stationary daytime and nighttime, 30 min segments indicate that short-term analyses of 30 min may provide at least a comparable risk stratification power in IHF in comparison to a 24 h analysis period.

Prediction of Breast Cancer Risk by Aberrant Methylation in Mammary Duct Lavage

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-07-01

Assessment of breast epithelial cells obtained by nipple duct lavage (NDL) may have value for breast cancer risk stratification. NDL was performed in 150...contribute to risk stratification. 15. SUBJECT TERMS breast cancer, DNA methylation, Methylation Specific PCR, Nipple Duct Lavage, Risk assessment 16...carcinogenesis. Nipple duct lavage (NDL) is a minimally invasive approach for obtaining breast epithelial cells. Cytological atypia identified in nipple

Risk scoring models for predicting peri-operative morbidity and mortality in people with fragility hip fractures: Qualitative systematic review.

PubMed

Marufu, Takawira C; Mannings, Alexa; Moppett, Iain K

2015-12-01

Accurate peri-operative risk prediction is an essential element of clinical practice. Various risk stratification tools for assessing patients' risk of mortality or morbidity have been developed and applied in clinical practice over the years. This review aims to outline essential characteristics (predictive accuracy, objectivity, clinical utility) of currently available risk scoring tools for hip fracture patients. We searched eight databases; AMED, CINHAL, Clinical Trials.gov, Cochrane, DARE, EMBASE, MEDLINE and Web of Science for all relevant studies published until April 2015. We included published English language observational studies that considered the predictive accuracy of risk stratification tools for patients with fragility hip fracture. After removal of duplicates, 15,620 studies were screened. Twenty-nine papers met the inclusion criteria, evaluating 25 risk stratification tools. Risk stratification tools considered in more than two studies were; ASA, CCI, E-PASS, NHFS and O-POSSUM. All tools were moderately accurate and validated in multiple studies; however there are some limitations to consider. The E-PASS and O-POSSUM are comprehensive but complex, and require intraoperative data making them a challenge for use on patient bedside. The ASA, CCI and NHFS are simple, easy and inexpensive using routinely available preoperative data. Contrary to the ASA and CCI which has subjective variables in addition to other limitations, the NHFS variables are all objective. In the search for a simple and inexpensive, easy to calculate, objective and accurate tool, the NHFS may be the most appropriate of the currently available scores for hip fracture patients. However more studies need to be undertaken before it becomes a national hip fracture risk stratification or audit tool of choice. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Risk stratification in autoimmune cholestatic liver diseases: Opportunities for clinicians and trialists

PubMed Central

Trivedi, Palak J.; Corpechot, Christophe; Pares, Albert

2015-01-01

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) are infrequent autoimmune cholestatic liver diseases, that disproportionate to their incidence and prevalence, remain very important causes of morbidity and mortality for patients with liver disease. Mechanistic insights spanning genetic risks and biological pathways to liver injury and fibrosis have led to a renewed interest in developing therapies beyond ursodeoxycholic acid that are aimed at both slowing disease course and improving quality of life. International cohort studies have facilitated a much greater understanding of disease heterogeneity, and in so doing highlight the opportunity to provide patients with a more individualized assessment of their risk of progressive liver disease, based on clinical, laboratory, or imaging findings. This has led to a new approach to patient care that focuses on risk stratification (both high and low risk); and furthermore allows such stratification tools to help identify patient subgroups at greatest potential benefit from inclusion in clinical trials. In this article, we review the applicability and validity of risk stratification in autoimmune cholestatic liver disease, highlighting strengths and weaknesses of current and emergent approaches. (Hepatology 2016;63:644–659) PMID:26290473

Natural history of definitive diverticular hemorrhage based upon stigmata of recent hemorrhage and colonoscopic Doppler blood flow monitoring for risk stratification and definitive hemostasis

PubMed Central

Jensen, Dennis M.; Ohning, Gordon V.; Kovacs, Thomas O.G.; Jutabha, Rome; Ghassemi, Kevin; Dulai, Gareth S.; Machicado, Gustavo A.

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND AND AIMS Few prospective reports describe the short term natural history of colon diverticular hemorrhage based upon stigmata of recent hemorrhage and none include blood flow detection for risk stratification or as a guide to definitive hemostasis. Our purposes are to report the 30 day natural history of definitive diverticular hemorrhage based upon stigmata and to describe Doppler probe blood flow detection and as a guide to definitive hemostasis. METHODS Different cohorts of patients with severe diverticular bleeding and stigmata on urgent colonoscopy are reported. For 30 day natural history, patients were treated medically. If severe rebleeding occurred, they had surgical or angiographic treatment. Natural history with major stigmata (active bleeding, visible vessel, or adherent clot) and no stigmata or flat spots after washing away clots are reported. Doppler probe detection of arterial blood flow underneath stigmata before and after hemostasis is also reported in a recent cohort. RESULTS For natural history patients with major stigmata treated medically had 65.8% (25/38) rebleeding rates and 44.7% (17/38) had intervention for hemostasis. Patients with spots or clean bases had no rebleeding. Doppler probe detected arterial blood flow in 92% of major stigmata, none after hemostasis and no one rebled. CONCLUSIONS 1. Patients with major stigmata treated medically had high rates of rebleeding and intervention for hemostasis. 2. Patients with clean diverticula or only flat spots had no rebleeding. 3. High rates of arterial blood flow were detected under major stigmata with Doppler probe but with obliteration by hemostasis no rebleeding occurred. PMID:26227931

Near-infrared autofluorescence induced by intraplaque hemorrhage and heme degradation as marker for high-risk atherosclerotic plaques.

PubMed

Htun, Nay Min; Chen, Yung Chih; Lim, Bock; Schiller, Tara; Maghzal, Ghassan J; Huang, Alex L; Elgass, Kirstin D; Rivera, Jennifer; Schneider, Hans G; Wood, Bayden R; Stocker, Roland; Peter, Karlheinz

2017-07-13

Atherosclerosis is a major cause of mortality and morbidity, which is mainly driven by complications such as myocardial infarction and stroke. These complications are caused by thrombotic arterial occlusion localized at the site of high-risk atherosclerotic plaques, of which early detection and therapeutic stabilization are urgently needed. Here we show that near-infrared autofluorescence is associated with the presence of intraplaque hemorrhage and heme degradation products, particularly bilirubin by using our recently created mouse model, which uniquely reflects plaque instability as seen in humans, and human carotid endarterectomy samples. Fluorescence emission computed tomography detecting near-infrared autofluorescence allows in vivo monitoring of intraplaque hemorrhage, establishing a preclinical technology to assess and monitor plaque instability and thereby test potential plaque-stabilizing drugs. We suggest that near-infrared autofluorescence imaging is a novel technology that allows identification of atherosclerotic plaques with intraplaque hemorrhage and ultimately holds promise for detection of high-risk plaques in patients.Atherosclerosis diagnosis relies primarily on imaging and early detection of high-risk atherosclerotic plaques is important for risk stratification of patients and stabilization therapies. Here Htun et al. demonstrate that vulnerable atherosclerotic plaques generate near-infrared autofluorescence that can be detected via emission computed tomography.

A new risk stratification algorithm for the management of patients with adrenal incidentalomas.

PubMed

Birsen, Onur; Akyuz, Muhammet; Dural, Cem; Aksoy, Erol; Aliyev, Shamil; Mitchell, Jamie; Siperstein, Allan; Berber, Eren

2014-10-01

Although adrenal incidentalomas (AI) are detected in ≤5% of patients undergoing chest and abdominal computed tomography (CT), their management is challenging. The current guidelines include recommendations from the National Institutes of Health, the American Association of Endocrine Surgeons (AAES), and the American Association for Cancer Education (AACE). The aim of this study was to develop a new risk stratification model and compare its performance against the existing guidelines for managing AI. A risk stratification model was designed by assigning points for adrenal size (1, 2, or 3 points for tumors <4, 4-6, or >6 cm, respectively) and Hounsfield unit (HU) density on noncontrast CT (1, 2, or 3 points for HU <10, 10-20, or >20, respectively). This model was applied retrospectively to 157 patients with AI managed in an endocrine surgery clinic to assign a score to each tumor. The utility of this model versus the AAES/AACE guidelines was assessed. Of the 157 patients, 54 (34%), had tumors <4 cm with HU <10 (a score of 2). One third of these were hormonally active on biochemical workup and underwent adrenalectomy. The remaining two thirds were nonsecretory lesions and have been followed conservatively with annual testing. In 103 patients (66%), the adrenal mass was >4 cm and/or had indeterminate features on noncontrast CT (HU >10, irregular borders, heterogeneity), and adrenalectomy was performed after hormonal evaluation was completed (10 were hormonally active on biochemical testing). Seven of these patients (7%) had adrenocortical cancer on final pathology with tumor size <4 cm in 0, 4-6 cm in 1, and >6 cm in 5 patients. Of the hormonally inactive patients, 32% had a score of 3, 38% 4, and 30% 5 or 6. The incidence of adrenocortical cancer in these subgroups was 0, 0, and 25%, respectively. This study shows that an algorithm that utilizes the hormonal activity at the first decision step followed by a consolidated risk stratification, based on tumor size and HU density, has a potential to spare a substantial number of patients from unnecessary "diagnostic" surgery for AI. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect of sample stratification on dairy GWAS results

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Artificial insemination and genetic selection are major factors contributing to population stratification in dairy cattle. In this study, we analyzed the effect of sample stratification and the effect of stratification correction on results of a dairy genome-wide association study (GWAS). Three methods for stratification correction were used: the efficient mixed-model association expedited (EMMAX) method accounting for correlation among all individuals, a generalized least squares (GLS) method based on half-sib intraclass correlation, and a principal component analysis (PCA) approach. Results Historical pedigree data revealed that the 1,654 contemporary cows in the GWAS were all related when traced through approximately 10–15 generations of ancestors. Genome and phenotype stratifications had a striking overlap with the half-sib structure. A large elite half-sib family of cows contributed to the detection of favorable alleles that had low frequencies in the general population and high frequencies in the elite cows and contributed to the detection of X chromosome effects. All three methods for stratification correction reduced the number of significant effects. EMMAX method had the most severe reduction in the number of significant effects, and the PCA method using 20 principal components and GLS had similar significance levels. Removal of the elite cows from the analysis without using stratification correction removed many effects that were also removed by the three methods for stratification correction, indicating that stratification correction could have removed some true effects due to the elite cows. SNP effects with good consensus between different methods and effect size distributions from USDA’s Holstein genomic evaluation included the DGAT1-NIBP region of BTA14 for production traits, a SNP 45kb upstream from PIGY on BTA6 and two SNPs in NIBP on BTA14 for protein percentage. However, most of these consensus effects had similar frequencies in the elite and average cows. Conclusions Genetic selection and extensive use of artificial insemination contributed to overlapped genome, pedigree and phenotype stratifications. The presence of an elite cluster of cows was related to the detection of rare favorable alleles that had high frequencies in the elite cluster and low frequencies in the remaining cows. Methods for stratification correction could have removed some true effects associated with genetic selection. PMID:23039970

[Comparison of the present and previously used protocol of risk stratification in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia].

PubMed

Glodkowska, Eliza; Bialas, Agnieszka; Jackowska, Teresa

2007-01-01

Acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) is one of the most common cancers in children. In Poland, since November 2002 a new protocol of risk stratification has been recommended for assessment of risk factors and for choosing therapy regimens. assessment of accuracy of protocol ALL-IC 2002 in comparison to previously used risk stratification protocols. ALL was diagnosed in 100 children (44 girls, 56 boys; 1-18 years of age) in the Department of Pediatric Hematology and Oncology, Warsaw Medical University, over the period from November 2002 to November 2006. According to the ALL-IC 2002 protocol the patients were divided into three risk groups: SR-standard, IR-intermediate and HR-high. The stratification was by age, leukocyte count, cytogenetic changes, early response to prednisone therapy and bone marrow remission. In the previously used risk stratification protocols-BFM-90, only hepatosplenomegaly and the number of blasts in peripheral blood (PB) were considered, and the patients were divided into three risk groups: low (LRG<0.8), medium (MRG) and high (HRG>1.2). out of the 100 patients qualified for treatment regimens according to the ALL-IC 2002 protocol, 97 entered remission, 11 died and 3 had a relapse. Under the ALL-IC 2002 protocol these children were stratified into the following groups: SR-31%, IR-44% and HR-25%. In the previously used stratification, there would be 26% children in low, 46% in the medium and 28% in the high risk group. According to the BFM-90 protocol 18/31 (58%) and 16/44 (36%) patients from the SR and IR groups respectively would be given more intensive treatment. On the other hand 11/44 (25%) and 14/25 (56%) patients from the IR and HR groups respectively would be given less intensive treatment. 1. ALL-IC 2002 protocol in comparison with the previously used protocol BFM-90, changes the qualification of children with ALL for the SR, IR and HR risk groups. This is linked to basic change of treatment protocol, adequate to severity of disease. 2. Children with ALL qualified according to protocol BFM-90 for moderate risk group (IR) constitute a mixed group in the ALL-IC 2002 classification. Part of the children was moved to the standard risk group (SR), part to high risk group (HR), and the rest remains in the intermediate risk category (IR). 3. Further studies are needed on stratification validity according to ALL-IL 2002 and on the need of further modification (eg assessment of additional factors) in order to decide on the best treatment, adequate to severity of disease.

Prostate cancer: predicting high-risk prostate cancer-a novel stratification tool.

PubMed

Buck, Jessica; Chughtai, Bilal

2014-05-01

Currently, numerous systems exist for the identification of high-risk prostate cancer, but few of these systems can guide treatment strategies. A new stratification tool that uses common diagnostic factors can help to predict outcomes after radical prostatectomy. The tool aids physicians in the identification of appropriate candidates for aggressive, local treatment.

Unification of favourable intermediate-, unfavourable intermediate-, and very high-risk stratification criteria for prostate cancer.

PubMed

Zumsteg, Zachary S; Zelefsky, Michael J; Woo, Kaitlin M; Spratt, Daniel E; Kollmeier, Marisa A; McBride, Sean; Pei, Xin; Sandler, Howard M; Zhang, Zhigang

2017-11-01

To improve on the existing risk-stratification systems for prostate cancer. This was a retrospective investigation including 2 248 patients undergoing dose-escalated external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) at a single institution. We separated National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) intermediate-risk prostate cancer into 'favourable' and 'unfavourable' groups based on primary Gleason pattern, percentage of positive biopsy cores (PPBC), and number of NCCN intermediate-risk factors. Similarly, NCCN high-risk prostate cancer was stratified into 'standard' and 'very high-risk' groups based on primary Gleason pattern, PPBC, number of NCCN high-risk factors, and stage T3b-T4 disease. Patients with unfavourable-intermediate-risk (UIR) prostate cancer had significantly inferior prostate-specific antigen relapse-free survival (PSA-RFS, P < 0.001), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS, P < 0.001), prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM, P < 0.001), and overall survival (OS, P < 0.001) compared with patients with favourable-intermediate-risk (FIR) prostate cancer. Similarly, patients with very high-risk (VHR) prostate cancer had significantly worse PSA-RFS (P < 0.001), DMFS (P < 0.001), and PCSM (P = 0.001) compared with patients with standard high-risk (SHR) prostate cancer. Moreover, patients with FIR and low-risk prostate cancer had similar outcomes, as did patients with UIR and SHR prostate cancer. Consequently, we propose the following risk-stratification system: Group 1, low risk and FIR; Group 2, UIR and SHR; and Group 3, VHR. These groups have markedly different outcomes, with 8-year distant metastasis rates of 3%, 9%, and 29% (P < 0.001) for Groups 1, 2, and 3, respectively, and 8-year PCSM of 1%, 4%, and 13% (P < 0.001) after EBRT. This modified stratification system was significantly more accurate than the three-tiered NCCN system currently in clinical use for all outcomes. Modifying the NCCN risk-stratification system to group FIR with low-risk patients and UIR with SHR patients, results in modestly improved prediction of outcomes, potentially allowing better personalisation of therapeutic recommendations. © 2017 The Authors BJU International © 2017 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

HPV DNA testing improves CIN2+ risk stratification and detection of CIN2+ in delayed triage of ASCUS and LSIL. A population-based follow-up study from Western Norway.

PubMed

Budal, Elisabeth B; Haugland, Hans K; Skar, Robert; Maehle, Bjørn O; Bjørge, Tone; Vintermyr, Olav K

2014-02-01

In Norway, Pap smears with atypical squamous cells of uncertain significance (ASCUS) and low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL) are triaged after 6 months. The aim of the study was to evaluate effects of implementing human papillomavirus (HPV) test (2005) in delayed triage of ASCUS and LSIL in a cohort of women from Western Norway. After a survey of 119,469 cervical Pap smears during 2005-2007, a total of 1055 women with an index ASCUS or LSIL were included in the study and followed up for 3-6 years with respect to progression into cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse (CIN2+). Overall sensitivity for detection of CIN2+ with HPV testing and cytology was 96% and 72%, respectively. The sensitivity for detection of CIN2+ was not affected by age, but the specificity of the HPV test increased with age. Thus, for the age groups <34 years, 34-50 years, and >50 years, the specificity of a positive HPV test to detect CIN2+ was 47%, 71%, and 82%, respectively. Positive predictive values for CIN2+ in women with positive cytology, positive HPV test, negative cytology, negative HPV test, or negative HPV and cytology tests were 52%, 41%, 8%, 1.5%, and 0.4%, respectively. HPV testing resulted in a net 22% increased detection of CIN2+. Fifty-six percent of CIN2+ was detected at an earlier time point with HPV testing in triage. Implementation of HPV testing in delayed triage of ASCUS and LSIL improved the stratification of CIN2+ risk and increased CIN2+ detection and at an earlier time point than with triage by cytology alone. © 2013 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

HPV DNA testing improves CIN2+ risk stratification and detection of CIN2+ in delayed triage of ASCUS and LSIL. A population-based follow-up study from Western Norway

PubMed Central

Budal, Elisabeth B; Haugland, Hans K; Skar, Robert; Mæhle, Bjørn O; Bjørge, Tone; Vintermyr, Olav K

2014-01-01

In Norway, Pap smears with atypical squamous cells of uncertain significance (ASCUS) and low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL) are triaged after 6 months. The aim of the study was to evaluate effects of implementing human papillomavirus (HPV) test (2005) in delayed triage of ASCUS and LSIL in a cohort of women from Western Norway. After a survey of 119,469 cervical Pap smears during 2005–2007, a total of 1055 women with an index ASCUS or LSIL were included in the study and followed up for 3–6 years with respect to progression into cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse (CIN2+). Overall sensitivity for detection of CIN2+ with HPV testing and cytology was 96% and 72%, respectively. The sensitivity for detection of CIN2+ was not affected by age, but the specificity of the HPV test increased with age. Thus, for the age groups <34 years, 34–50 years, and >50 years, the specificity of a positive HPV test to detect CIN2+ was 47%, 71%, and 82%, respectively. Positive predictive values for CIN2+ in women with positive cytology, positive HPV test, negative cytology, negative HPV test, or negative HPV and cytology tests were 52%, 41%, 8%, 1.5%, and 0.4%, respectively. HPV testing resulted in a net 22% increased detection of CIN2+. Fifty-six percent of CIN2+ was detected at an earlier time point with HPV testing in triage. Implementation of HPV testing in delayed triage of ASCUS and LSIL improved the stratification of CIN2+ risk and increased CIN2+ detection and at an earlier time point than with triage by cytology alone. PMID:24403090

Urothelial cancer of the upper urinary tract: emerging biomarkers and integrative models for risk stratification.

PubMed

Mathieu, Romain; Vartolomei, Mihai D; Mbeutcha, Aurélie; Karakiewicz, Pierre I; Briganti, Alberto; Roupret, Morgan; Shariat, Shahrokh F

2016-08-01

The aim of this review was to provide an overview of current biomarkers and risk stratification models in urothelial cancer of the upper urinary tract (UTUC). A non-systematic Medline/PubMed literature search was performed using the terms "biomarkers", "preoperative models", "postoperative models", "risk stratification", together with "upper tract urothelial carcinoma". Original articles published between January 2003 and August 2015 were included based on their clinical relevance. Additional references were collected by cross referencing the bibliography of the selected articles. Various promising predictive and prognostic biomarkers have been identified in UTUC thanks to the increasing knowledge of the different biological pathways involved in UTUC tumorigenesis. These biomarkers may help identify tumors with aggressive biology and worse outcomes. Current tools aim at predicting muscle invasive or non-organ confined disease, renal failure after radical nephroureterectomy and survival outcomes. These models are still mainly based on imaging and clinicopathological feature and none has integrated biomarkers. Risk stratification in UTUC is still suboptimal, especially in the preoperative setting due to current limitations in staging and grading. Identification of novel biomarkers and external validation of current prognostic models may help improve risk stratification to allow evidence-based counselling for kidney-sparing approaches, perioperative chemotherapy and/or risk-based surveillance. Despite growing understanding of the biology underlying UTUC, management of this disease remains difficult due to the lack of validated biomarkers and the limitations of current predictive and prognostic tools. Further efforts and collaborations are necessaryry to allow their integration in daily practice.

Project VeSElkA: results of abundance analysis for HD 53929 and HD 63975

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ndiaye, M. L.; LeBlanc, F.; Khalack, V.

2018-03-01

Project VeSElkA (Vertical Stratification of Element Abundances) has been initiated with the aim to detect and study the vertical stratification of element abundances in the atmosphere of chemically peculiar stars. Abundance stratification occurs in hydrodynamically stable stellar atmospheres due to the migration of the elements caused by atomic diffusion. Two HgMn stars, HD 53929 and HD 63975 were selected from the VeSElkA sample and analysed with the aim to detect some abundance peculiarities employing the ZEEMAN2 code. We present the results of abundance analysis of HD 53929 and HD 63975 observed recently with the spectropolarimeter ESPaDOnS at Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope. Evidence of phosphorus vertical stratification was detected in the atmosphere of these two stars. In both cases, phosphorus abundance increases strongly towards the superficial layers. The strong overabundance of Mn found in stellar atmosphere of both stars confirms that they are HgMn type stars.

[Screening for atherosclerosis to prevent cardiovascular risk : a pro-contra debate].

PubMed

Nanchen, David; Genest, Jacques

2018-02-28

Detecting atherosclerosis using imaging techniques is the subject of intense debate in the scientific community. Among the arguments in favor of screening, a better identification or better stratification of cardiovascular risk is mentioned, compared to cardiovascular risk scores based solely on traditional risk factors, such as blood pressure or cholesterol levels. Imaging techniques are also used to monitor the progression of atherosclerosis among patients using lipid-lowering or antihypertensive drugs in primary prevention. However, several experts in recent years have challenged the clinical utility of these imaging techniques in asymptomatic adults. This article proposes a debate « for or against » to describe the main arguments for or against the use of imaging for screening for atherosclerosis.

Predicting the risk of sudden cardiac death.

PubMed

Lerma, Claudia; Glass, Leon

2016-05-01

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the result of a change of cardiac activity from normal (typically sinus) rhythm to a rhythm that does not pump adequate blood to the brain. The most common rhythms leading to SCD are ventricular tachycardia (VT) or ventricular fibrillation (VF). These result from an accelerated ventricular pacemaker or ventricular reentrant waves. Despite significant efforts to develop accurate predictors for the risk of SCD, current methods for risk stratification still need to be improved. In this article we briefly review current approaches to risk stratification. Then we discuss the mathematical basis for dynamical transitions (called bifurcations) that may lead to VT and VF. One mechanism for transition to VT or VF involves a perturbation by a premature ventricular complex (PVC) during sinus rhythm. We describe the main mechanisms of PVCs (reentry, independent pacemakers and abnormal depolarizations). An emerging approach to risk stratification for SCD involves the development of individualized dynamical models of a patient based on measured anatomy and physiology. Careful analysis and modelling of dynamics of ventricular arrhythmia on an individual basis will be essential in order to improve risk stratification for SCD and to lay a foundation for personalized (precision) medicine in cardiology. © 2015 The Authors. The Journal of Physiology © 2015 The Physiological Society.

A two-stage clinical decision support system for early recognition and stratification of patients with sepsis: an observational cohort study.

PubMed

Amland, Robert C; Lyons, Jason J; Greene, Tracy L; Haley, James M

2015-10-01

To examine the diagnostic accuracy of a two-stage clinical decision support system for early recognition and stratification of patients with sepsis. Observational cohort study employing a two-stage sepsis clinical decision support to recognise and stratify patients with sepsis. The stage one component was comprised of a cloud-based clinical decision support with 24/7 surveillance to detect patients at risk of sepsis. The cloud-based clinical decision support delivered notifications to the patients' designated nurse, who then electronically contacted a provider. The second stage component comprised a sepsis screening and stratification form integrated into the patient electronic health record, essentially an evidence-based decision aid, used by providers to assess patients at bedside. Urban, 284 acute bed community hospital in the USA; 16,000 hospitalisations annually. Data on 2620 adult patients were collected retrospectively in 2014 after the clinical decision support was implemented. 'Suspected infection' was the established gold standard to assess clinical decision support clinimetric performance. A sepsis alert activated on 417 (16%) of 2620 adult patients hospitalised. Applying 'suspected infection' as standard, the patient population characteristics showed 72% sensitivity and 73% positive predictive value. A postalert screening conducted by providers at bedside of 417 patients achieved 81% sensitivity and 94% positive predictive value. Providers documented against 89% patients with an alert activated by clinical decision support and completed 75% of bedside screening and stratification of patients with sepsis within one hour from notification. A clinical decision support binary alarm system with cross-checking functionality improves early recognition and facilitates stratification of patients with sepsis.

Risk stratification for sudden death in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Cadrin-Tourigny, Julia; Tadros, Rafik; Talajic, Mario; Rivard, Lena; Abadir, Sylvia; Khairy, Paul

2015-06-01

Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy/dysplasia (ARVC) is an uncommon but increasingly recognized inherited cardiomyopathy that is associated with malignant ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death, particularly in young individuals. The implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) is widely regarded as the only treatment modality with evidence to support improved survival in patients with ARVC and secondary prevention indications. In contrast, there is no universally accepted risk stratification scheme to guide ICD therapy for primary prevention against sudden cardiac death. Potential benefits must be weighed against the considerable risks of complications and inappropriate shocks in this young patient population. This article tackles the challenges of risk stratification for sudden cardiac death in ARVC and critically appraises available evidence for various proposed risk factors. The authors' over-arching objective is to provide the clinician with evidence-based guidance to inform decisions regarding the selection of appropriate candidates with ARVC for ICD therapy.

Early Dynamic Risk Stratification with Baseline Troponin Levels and 90-minute ST Segment Resolution to Predict 30 Day Cardiovascular Mortality in STEMI: Analysis from CLARITY TIMI-28

PubMed Central

Sherwood, Matthew W.; Morrow, David A.; Scirica, Benjamin M.; Jiang, Songtao; Bode, Christoph; Rifai, Nader; Gerszten, Robert E.; Gibson, C. Michael; Cannon, Christopher P.; Braunwald, Eugene; Sabatine, Marc S.

2010-01-01

Background Troponin is the preferred biomarker for risk stratification in non-ST-elevation ACS. The incremental prognostic utility of the initial magnitude of troponin elevation and its value in conjunction with ST segment resolution (STRes) in STEMI is less well-defined. Methods Troponin T (TnT) was measured in 1250 patients at presentation undergoing fibrinolysis for STEMI in CLARITY-TIMI 28. STRes was measured at 90 minutes. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the independent association between TnT levels, STRes, and 30-day cardiovascular (CV) mortality. Results Patients were classified into undetectable TnT at baseline (n=594), detectable but below the median of 0.12 ng/ml (n=330), and above the median (n=326). Rates of 30-day CV death were 1.5%, 4.5%, and 9.5% respectively (P<0.0001). Compared with those with undetectable levels and adjusting for baseline factors, the odds ratios for 30-day CV death were 4.56 (1.72-12.08, P=0.002) and 5.81 (2.29-14.73, P=0.0002) for those below and above the median, respectively. When combined with STRes, there was a significant gradient of risk, and in a multivariable model both baseline TnT (P=0.004) and STRes (P=0.003) were significant predictors of 30-day CV death. The addition of TnT and STRes to clinical risk factors significantly improved the C-statistic (0.86 to 0.90, P=0.02) and the integrated discriminative improvement 7.1% (P=0.0009). Conclusions Baseline TnT and 90-minute STRes are independent predictors of 30-day CV death in patients with STEMI. Use of these two simple, readily available tools can aid clinicians in early risk stratification. PMID:20569707

End-of-radiation PSA as a novel prognostic factor in patients undergoing definitive radiation and androgen deprivation therapy for prostate cancer.

PubMed

Narang, A K; Trieu, J; Radwan, N; Ram, A; Robertson, S P; He, P; Gergis, C; Griffith, E; Singh, H; DeWeese, T A; Honig, S; Annadanam, A; Greco, S; DeVille, C; McNutt, T; DeWeese, T L; Song, D Y; Tran, P T

2017-06-01

In men undergoing definitive radiation for prostate cancer, it is unclear whether early biochemical response can provide additional prognostic value beyond pre-treatment risk stratification. Prostate cancer patients consecutively treated with definitive radiation at our institution by a single provider from 1993 to 2006 and who had an end-of-radiation (EOR) PSA (n=688, median follow-up 11.2 years). We analyzed the association of an EOR PSA level, obtained during the last week of radiation, with survival outcomes. Multivariable-adjusted cox proportional hazards models were constructed to assess associations between a detectable EOR PSA (defined as ⩾0.1 ng ml -1 ) and biochemical failure-free survival (BFFS), metastasis-free survival (MFS), prostate cancer-specific survival (PCSS) and overall survival (OS). Kaplan-Meier survival curves were constructed, with stratification by EOR PSA. At the end of radiation, the PSA level was undetectable in 30% of patients. Men with a detectable EOR PSA experienced inferior 10-year BFFS (49.7% versus 64.4%, P<0.001), 10-year MFS (84.8% versus 92.0%, P=0.003), 10-year PCSS (94.3% versus 98.2%, P=0.007) and 10-year OS (75.8% versus 82.5%, P=0.01), as compared to men with an undetectable EOR PSA. Among National Comprehensive Care Network (NCCN) intermediate- and high-risk men who were treated with definitive radiation and androgen deprivation therapy (ADT), a detectable EOR PSA was more strongly associated with PCSS than initial NCCN risk level (EOR PSA: HR 5.89, 95% CI 2.37-14.65, P<0.001; NCCN risk level: HR 2.01, 95% CI 0.74-5.42, P=0.168). Main study limitations are retrospective study design and associated biases. EOR PSA was significantly associated with survival endpoints in men who received treatment with definitive radiation and ADT. Whether the EOR PSA can be used to modulate treatment intensity merits further investigation.

Role of imaging in evaluation of sudden cardiac death risk in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Geske, Jeffrey B; Ommen, Steve R

2015-09-01

Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is the most common heritable cardiomyopathy and is associated with sudden cardiac death (SCD) - an uncommon but devastating clinical outcome. This review is designed to assess the role of imaging in established risk factor assessment and its role in emerging SCD risk stratification. Recent publications have highlighted the crucial role of imaging in HCM SCD risk stratification. Left ventricular hypertrophy assessment remains the key imaging determinant of risk. Data continue to emerge on the role of systolic dysfunction, apical aneurysms, left atrial enlargement and left ventricular outflow tract obstruction as markers of risk. Quantitative assessment of delayed myocardial enhancement and T1 mapping on cardiac MRI continue to evolve. Recent multicenter trials have allowed multivariate SCD risk assessment in large HCM cohorts. Given aggregate risk with presence of multiple risk factors, a single parameter should not be used in isolation to determine implantable cardiac defibrillator candidacy. Use of all available imaging data, including cardiac magnetic resonance tissue characterization, allows a comprehensive approach to SCD stratification and implantable cardiac defibrillator decision-making.

A Panel of Novel Detection and Prognostic Methylated DNA Markers in Primary Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer and Serum DNA.

PubMed

Ooki, Akira; Maleki, Zahra; Tsay, Jun-Chieh J; Goparaju, Chandra; Brait, Mariana; Turaga, Nitesh; Nam, Hae-Seong; Rom, William N; Pass, Harvey I; Sidransky, David; Guerrero-Preston, Rafael; Hoque, Mohammad Obaidul

2017-11-15

Purpose: To establish a novel panel of cancer-specific methylated genes for cancer detection and prognostic stratification of early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Experimental Design: Identification of differentially methylated regions (DMR) was performed with bumphunter on "The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA)" dataset, and clinical utility was assessed using quantitative methylation-specific PCR assay in multiple sets of primary NSCLC and body fluids that included serum, pleural effusion, and ascites samples. Results: A methylation panel of 6 genes ( CDO1, HOXA9, AJAP1, PTGDR, UNCX , and MARCH11 ) was selected from TCGA dataset. Promoter methylation of the gene panel was detected in 92.2% (83/90) of the training cohort with a specificity of 72.0% (18/25) and in 93.0% (40/43) of an independent cohort of stage IA primary NSCLC. In serum samples from the later 43 stage IA subjects and population-matched 42 control subjects, the gene panel yielded a sensitivity of 72.1% (31/41) and specificity of 71.4% (30/42). Similar diagnostic accuracy was observed in pleural effusion and ascites samples. A prognostic risk category based on the methylation status of CDO1, HOXA9, PTGDR , and AJAP1 refined the risk stratification for outcomes as an independent prognostic factor for an early-stage disease. Moreover, the paralog group for HOXA9, predominantly overexpressed in subjects with HOXA9 methylation, showed poor outcomes. Conclusions: Promoter methylation of a panel of 6 genes has potential for use as a biomarker for early cancer detection and to predict prognosis at the time of diagnosis. Clin Cancer Res; 23(22); 7141-52. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

The role of non-invasive cardiovascular imaging in the assessment of cardiovascular risk in rheumatoid arthritis: where we are and where we need to be.

PubMed

Fent, Graham J; Greenwood, John P; Plein, Sven; Buch, Maya H

2017-07-01

This review assesses the risk assessment of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and how non-invasive imaging modalities may improve risk stratification in future. RA is common and patients are at greater risk of CVD than the general population. Cardiovascular (CV) risk stratification is recommended in European guidelines for patients at high and very high CV risk in order to commence preventative therapy. Ideally, such an assessment should be carried out immediately after diagnosis and as part of ongoing long-term patient care in order to improve patient outcomes. The risk profile in RA is different from the general population and is not well estimated using conventional clinical CVD risk algorithms, particularly in patients estimated as intermediate CVD risk. Non-invasive imaging techniques may therefore play an important role in improving risk assessment. However, there are currently very limited prognostic data specific to patients with RA to guide clinicians in risk stratification using these imaging techniques. RA is associated with increased risk of CV mortality, mainly attributable to atherosclerotic disease, though in addition, RA is associated with many other disease processes which further contribute to increased CV mortality. There is reasonable evidence for using carotid ultrasound in patients estimated to be at intermediate risk of CV mortality using clinical CVD risk algorithms. Newer imaging techniques such as cardiovascular magnetic resonance and CT offer the potential to improve risk stratification further; however, longitudinal data with hard CVD outcomes are currently lacking. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Delayed risk stratification, to include the response to initial treatment (surgery and radioiodine ablation), has better outcome predictivity in differentiated thyroid cancer patients.

PubMed

Castagna, Maria Grazia; Maino, Fabio; Cipri, Claudia; Belardini, Valentina; Theodoropoulou, Alexandra; Cevenini, Gabriele; Pacini, Furio

2011-09-01

After initial treatment, differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) patients are stratified as low and high risk based on clinical/pathological features. Recently, a risk stratification based on additional clinical data accumulated during follow-up has been proposed. To evaluate the predictive value of delayed risk stratification (DRS) obtained at the time of the first diagnostic control (8-12 months after initial treatment). We reviewed 512 patients with DTC whose risk assessment was initially defined according to the American (ATA) and European Thyroid Association (ETA) guidelines. At the time of the first control, 8-12 months after initial treatment, patients were re-stratified according to their clinical status: DRS. Using DRS, about 50% of ATA/ETA intermediate/high-risk patients moved to DRS low-risk category, while about 10% of ATA/ETA low-risk patients moved to DRS high-risk category. The ability of the DRS to predict the final outcome was superior to that of ATA and ETA. Positive and negative predictive values for both ATA (39.2 and 90.6% respectively) and ETA (38.4 and 91.3% respectively) were significantly lower than that observed with the DRS (72.8 and 96.3% respectively, P<0.05). The observed variance in predicting final outcome was 25.4% for ATA, 19.1% for ETA, and 62.1% for DRS. Delaying the risk stratification of DTC patients at a time when the response to surgery and radioiodine ablation is evident allows to better define individual risk and to better modulate the subsequent follow-up.

Advantages of early diagnosis of diabetic neuropathy in the prevention of diabetic foot ulcers.

PubMed

Sanz-Corbalán, Irene; Lázaro-Martínez, José Luis; García-Morales, Esther; Molines-Barroso, Raúl; Álvaro-Afonso, Francisco; García-Álvarez, Yolanda

2017-12-26

to evaluate the utility of the sudomotor function test (SFT) as a clinical tool in the Risk Stratification System of diabetic patients and to demonstrate the earlier detection of the risk of developing diabetic foot ulcers (DFU) compared to the standard clinical tests. prospective follow-up study on 263 patients enrolled consecutively over 3.5 years. Diabetic patients without active DFU were classified according to the International Working Group Risk Stratification System (RSS) and categorized according to the results of the Semmes-Wenstein Monofilament (SWM) and biothesiometer measurements or the SFT. The main outcome evaluated was the development of DFU. median follow-up was 42 [38-44] months. Sixty patients (22.8%) developed DFU after a median of 6.2 [3-17] months. Ten patients that were included in the no-risk group (group 0) based on the SWM and biothesiometer results developed DFU. Thus the sensitivity of this approach was 83.33% and the specificity was 50.47%. Based on the SFT results, all patients that developed DFU were included in the correct risk group. This approach had 100% sensitivity and 31.53% specificity. Regarding the diagnostic accuracy of the two Methods, the respective AUC values were 0.776 (95% CI 0.702-0.849) and 0.816 (95% CI 0.757-0.874). SFT improved RSS in diabetic patients in a specialized diabetic foot unit. SFT categorized patients correctly according to the risk of developing DFU. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Developing and validating a novel metabolic tumor volume risk stratification system for supplementing non-small cell lung cancer staging.

PubMed

Pu, Yonglin; Zhang, James X; Liu, Haiyan; Appelbaum, Daniel; Meng, Jianfeng; Penney, Bill C

2018-06-07

We hypothesized that whole-body metabolic tumor volume (MTVwb) could be used to supplement non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) staging due to its independent prognostic value. The goal of this study was to develop and validate a novel MTVwb risk stratification system to supplement NSCLC staging. We performed an IRB-approved retrospective review of 935 patients with NSCLC and FDG-avid tumor divided into modeling and validation cohorts based on the type of PET/CT scanner used for imaging. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted by dividing the patient population into two randomized cohorts. Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were performed to determine the prognostic value of the MTVwb risk stratification system. The cut-off values (10.0, 53.4 and 155.0 mL) between the MTVwb quartiles of the modeling cohort were applied to both the modeling and validation cohorts to determine each patient's MTVwb risk stratum. The survival analyses showed that a lower MTVwb risk stratum was associated with better overall survival (all p < 0.01), independent of TNM stage together with other clinical prognostic factors, and the discriminatory power of the MTVwb risk stratification system, as measured by Gönen and Heller's concordance index, was not significantly different from that of TNM stage in both cohorts. Also, the prognostic value of the MTVwb risk stratum was robust in the two randomized cohorts. The discordance rate between the MTVwb risk stratum and TNM stage or substage was 45.1% in the modeling cohort and 50.3% in the validation cohort. This study developed and validated a novel MTVwb risk stratification system, which has prognostic value independent of the TNM stage and other clinical prognostic factors in NSCLC, suggesting that it could be used for further NSCLC pretreatment assessment and for refining treatment decisions in individual patients.

Percentage of Positive Biopsy Cores: A Better Risk Stratification Model for Prostate Cancer?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang Jiayi; Vicini, Frank A.; Williams, Scott G.

2012-07-15

Purpose: To assess the prognostic value of the percentage of positive biopsy cores (PPC) and perineural invasion in predicting the clinical outcomes after radiotherapy (RT) for prostate cancer and to explore the possibilities to improve on existing risk-stratification models. Methods and Materials: Between 1993 and 2004, 1,056 patients with clinical Stage T1c-T3N0M0 prostate cancer, who had four or more biopsy cores sampled and complete biopsy core data available, were treated with external beam RT, with or without a high-dose-rate brachytherapy boost at William Beaumont Hospital. The median follow-up was 7.6 years. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed with PPC, Gleasonmore » score, pretreatment prostate-specific antigen, T stage, PNI, radiation dose, androgen deprivation, age, prostate-specific antigen frequency, and follow-up duration. A new risk stratification (PPC classification) was empirically devised to incorporate PPC and replace the T stage. Results: On multivariate Cox regression analysis, the PPC was an independent predictor of distant metastasis, cause-specific survival, and overall survival (all p < .05). A PPC >50% was associated with significantly greater distant metastasis (hazard ratio, 4.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.86-8.61), and its independent predictive value remained significant with or without androgen deprivation therapy (all p < .05). In contrast, PNI and T stage were only predictive for locoregional recurrence. Combining the PPC ({<=}50% vs. >50%) with National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk stratification demonstrated added prognostic value of distant metastasis for the intermediate-risk (hazard ratio, 5.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.78-16.6) and high-risk (hazard ratio, 4.39; 95% confidence interval, 1.70-11.3) groups, regardless of the use of androgen deprivation and high-dose RT (all p < .05). The proposed PPC classification appears to provide improved stratification of the clinical outcomes relative to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network classification. Conclusions: The PPC is an independent and powerful predictor of clinical outcomes of prostate cancer after RT. A risk model replacing T stage with the PPC to reduce subjectivity demonstrated potentially improved stratification.« less

Stratification of HPV-Induced Cervical Pathology using the Virally-Encoded Molecular Marker E4 in Combination with p16 or MCM

PubMed Central

Griffin, Heather; Soneji, Yasmina; Van Baars, Romy; Arora, Rupali; Jenkins, David; van de Sandt, Miekel; Wu, Zhonglin; Quint, Wim; Jach, Robert; Okon, Krzysztof; Huras, Hubert; Singer, Albert; Doorbar, John

2015-01-01

High-risk HPV types cause cervical lesions of varying severity, ranging from transient productive infections to high-grade neoplasia. Disease stratification requires the examination of lesional pathology, and possibly also the detection of biomarkers. P16INK4a and MCM are established surrogates of high-risk HPV E6/E7 activity, and can be extensively expressed in high-grade lesions. Here we have combined these two cellular biomarkers with detection of the abundant HPV-encoded E4 protein in order to identify both productive and transforming lesions. This approach has allowed us to distinguish true papillomavirus infections from similar pathologies, and has allowed us to divide the heterogeneous CIN2 category into those that are CIN1-like and express E4, and those that more closely resemble non-productive CIN3. To achieve this, 530 lesional areas were evaluated according to standard pathology criteria and by using a multiple staining approach that allows us to superimpose biomarker patterns either singly or in combination onto an annotated haematoxylin & eosin image. Conventional grading of neoplasia was established by review panel, and compared directly to the composite molecular pathology visualised on the same tissue section. The detection of E4 coincided with the onset of vacuolation, becoming abundant in koilocytes as the MCM marker declined and cells lost their defined nuclear margins as visualised by standard H&E staining. Of the dual marker approaches, p16INK4a and E4 appeared most promising, with E4 generally identifying areas of low-grade disease even when p16INK4a was present. Extensive p16INK4a expression usually coincided with an absence of E4 expression or its focal retention in sporadic cells within the lesion. Our results suggest that a straightforward molecular evaluation of HPV life-cycle deregulation in cervical neoplasia may help improve disease stratification, and that this can be achieved using complementary molecular biomarker pairs such as MCM/E4 or more promisingly, p16INK4a/E4 as an adjunct to conventional pathology. PMID:25953390

The correlation of background parenchymal enhancement in the contralateral breast with patient and tumor characteristics of MRI-screen detected breast cancers.

PubMed

Vreemann, Suzan; Gubern-Mérida, Albert; Borelli, Cristina; Bult, Peter; Karssemeijer, Nico; Mann, Ritse M

2018-01-01

Higher background parenchymal enhancement (BPE) could be used for stratification of MRI screening programs since it might be related to a higher breast cancer risk. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to correlate BPE to patient and tumor characteristics in women with unilateral MRI-screen detected breast cancer who participated in an intermediate and high risk screening program. As BPE in the affected breast may be difficult to discern from enhancing cancer, we assumed that BPE in the contralateral breast is a representative measure for BPE in women with unilateral breast cancer. This retrospective study was approved by our local institutional board and a waiver for consent was granted. MR-examinations of women with unilateral breast cancers screen-detected on breast MRI were evaluated by two readers. BPE in the contralateral breast was rated according to BI-RADS. Univariate analyses were performed to study associations. Observer variability was computed. Analysis included 77 breast cancers in 76 patients (age: 48±9.8 years), including 62 invasive and 15 pure ductal carcinoma in-situ cases. A negative association between BPE and tumor grade (p≤0.016) and a positive association with progesterone status (p≤0.021) was found. The correlation was stronger when only considering invasive disease. Inter-reader agreement was substantial. Lower BPE in the contralateral breast in women with unilateral breast cancer might be associated to higher tumor grade and progesterone receptor negativity. Great care should be taken using BPE for stratification of patients to tailored screening programs.

Modern risk stratification in coronary heart disease.

PubMed

Ginghina, C; Bejan, I; Ceck, C D

2011-11-14

The prevalence and impact of cardiovascular diseases in the world are growing. There are 2 million deaths due to cardiovascular disease each year in the European Union; the main cause of death being the coronary heart disease responsible for 16% of deaths in men and 15% in women. Prevalence of cardiovascular disease in Romania is estimated at 7 million people, of which 2.8 million have ischemic heart disease. In this epidemiological context, risk stratification is required for individualization of therapeutic strategies for each patient. The continuing evolution of the diagnosis and treatment techniques combines personalized medicine with the trend of therapeutic management leveling, based on guidelines and consensus, which are in constant update. The guidelines used in clinical practice have involved risk stratification and identification of patient groups in whom the risk-benefit ratio of using new diagnostic and therapeutic techniques has a positive value. Presence of several risk factors may indicate a more important total risk than the presence / significant increase from normal values of a single risk factor. Modern trends in risk stratification of patients with coronary heart disease are polarized between the use of simple data versus complex scores, traditional data versus new risk factors, generally valid scores versus personalized scores, depending on patient characteristics, type of coronary artery disease, with impact on the suggested therapy. All known information and techniques can be integrated in a complex system of risk assessment. The current trend in risk assessment is to identify coronary artery disease in early forms, before clinical manifestation, and to guide therapy, particularly in patients with intermediate risk, which can be classified in another class of risk based on new obtained information.

Wall-based measurement features provides an improved IVUS coronary artery risk assessment when fused with plaque texture-based features during machine learning paradigm.

PubMed

Banchhor, Sumit K; Londhe, Narendra D; Araki, Tadashi; Saba, Luca; Radeva, Petia; Laird, John R; Suri, Jasjit S

2017-12-01

Planning of percutaneous interventional procedures involves a pre-screening and risk stratification of the coronary artery disease. Current screening tools use stand-alone plaque texture-based features and therefore lack the ability to stratify the risk. This IRB approved study presents a novel strategy for coronary artery disease risk stratification using an amalgamation of IVUS plaque texture-based and wall-based measurement features. Due to common genetic plaque makeup, carotid plaque burden was chosen as a gold standard for risk labels during training-phase of machine learning (ML) paradigm. Cross-validation protocol was adopted to compute the accuracy of the ML framework. A set of 59 plaque texture-based features was padded with six wall-based measurement features to show the improvement in stratification accuracy. The ML system was executed using principle component analysis-based framework for dimensionality reduction and uses support vector machine classifier for training and testing-phases. The ML system produced a stratification accuracy of 91.28%, demonstrating an improvement of 5.69% when wall-based measurement features were combined with plaque texture-based features. The fused system showed an improvement in mean sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and area under the curve by: 6.39%, 4.59%, 3.31% and 5.48%, respectively when compared to the stand-alone system. While meeting the stability criteria of 5%, the ML system also showed a high average feature retaining power and mean reliability of 89.32% and 98.24%, respectively. The ML system showed an improvement in risk stratification accuracy when the wall-based measurement features were fused with the plaque texture-based features. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computational cardiology and risk stratification for sudden cardiac death: one of the grand challenges for cardiology in the 21st century

PubMed Central

Perry, Matthew D.; Abi‐Gerges, Najah; Couderc, Jean‐Philippe; Fermini, Bernard; Hancox, Jules C.; Knollmann, Bjorn C.; Mirams, Gary R.; Skinner, Jon; Zareba, Wojciech; Vandenberg, Jamie I.

2016-01-01

Abstract Risk stratification in the context of sudden cardiac death has been acknowledged as one of the major challenges facing cardiology for the past four decades. In recent years, the advent of high performance computing has facilitated organ‐level simulation of the heart, meaning we can now examine the causes, mechanisms and impact of cardiac dysfunction in silico. As a result, computational cardiology, largely driven by the Physiome project, now stands at the threshold of clinical utility in regards to risk stratification and treatment of patients at risk of sudden cardiac death. In this white paper, we outline a roadmap of what needs to be done to make this translational step, using the relatively well‐developed case of acquired or drug‐induced long QT syndrome as an exemplar case. PMID:27060987

Revealing the timing of ocean stratification using remotely sensed ocean fronts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Peter I.; Loveday, Benjamin R.

2017-10-01

Stratification is of critical importance to the circulation, mixing and productivity of the ocean, and is expected to be modified by climate change. Stratification is also understood to affect the surface aggregation of pelagic fish and hence the foraging behaviour and distribution of their predators such as seabirds and cetaceans. Hence it would be prudent to monitor the stratification of the global ocean, though this is currently only possible using in situ sampling, profiling buoys or underwater autonomous vehicles. Earth observation (EO) sensors cannot directly detect stratification, but can observe surface features related to the presence of stratification, for example shelf-sea fronts that separate tidally-mixed water from seasonally stratified water. This paper describes a novel algorithm that accumulates evidence for stratification from a sequence of oceanic front maps, and discusses preliminary results in comparison with in situ data and simulations from 3D hydrodynamic models. In certain regions, this method can reveal the timing of the seasonal onset and breakdown of stratification.

Morphological and immunological criteria of minimal residual disease detection in children with B-cell precursors acute lymphoblastic leukemia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beznos, O. A.; Grivtsova, L. Yu; Popa, A. V.; Shervashidze, M. A.; Serebtyakova, I. N.; Tupitsyn, N. N.; Selchuk, V. U.; Grebennikova, O. P.; Titova, G. V.

2018-01-01

One of the key factors of prognosis and risk stratification in patients with B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia (BCP-ALL) is minimal residual disease (MRD). Identification of MRD on the day 15th is one of the most significant in prognosis of the disease. We compared data of a morphological and flow cytometry results of assessment of a bone marrow (BM) at the day 15th of induction chemotherapy in children with BCP-ALL.

Introducing the reporting system for thyroid fine-needle aspiration cytology according to the new guidelines of the Japan Thyroid Association.

PubMed

Kakudo, Kennichi; Kameyama, Kaori; Miyauchi, Akira; Nakamura, Hirotoshi

2014-01-01

The Japan Thyroid Association (JTA) recently published new guidelines for clinical management of thyroid nodules. This paper introduces their diagnostic system for reporting thyroid fine-needle aspiration cytology. There are two points where the new reporting system that differs from existing internationally-accepted ones. The first is the subclassification of the so-called indeterminate category, which is divided into 'follicular neoplasm' and 'others'. The second is the subclassification of follicular neoplasm into 'favor benign', 'borderline' and 'favor malignant'. It is characterized by self-explanatory terminologies as to histological type and probability of malignancy to establish further risk stratification as well as to facilitate communication between clinicians and cytopathologists. The different treatment strategies adopted for thyroid nodules is deeply influenced by the particular diagnostic system used for thyroid cytology. In Western countries all patients with follicular neoplasms are advised to have immediate diagnostic surgery while patients in Japan often undergo further risk stratification without immediate surgery. The JTA diagnostic system of reporting thyroid cytology is designed for further risk stratification of patients with indeterminate cytology. If a surgeon applies diagnostic lobectomy to all patients with follicular neoplasm unselectively, this subclassification of follicular neoplasm has no practical meaning and is unnecessary. Cytological risk stratification of follicular neoplasms is optional and cytopathologists can choose either a simple 6-tier system without stratification of follicular neoplasm or a complicated 8-tier system depending on their experience in thyroid cytology and clinical management.

Analysis of agreement between cardiac risk stratification protocols applied to participants of a center for cardiac rehabilitation

PubMed Central

Santos, Ana A. S.; Silva, Anne K. F.; Vanderlei, Franciele M.; Christofaro, Diego G. D.; Gonçalves, Aline F. L.; Vanderlei, Luiz C. M.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Background Cardiac risk stratification is related to the risk of the occurrence of events induced by exercise. Despite the existence of several protocols to calculate risk stratification, studies indicating that there is similarity between these protocols are still unknown. Objective To evaluate the agreement between the existing protocols on cardiac risk rating in cardiac patients. Method The records of 50 patients from a cardiac rehabilitation program were analyzed, from which the following information was extracted: age, sex, weight, height, clinical diagnosis, medical history, risk factors, associated diseases, and the results from the most recent laboratory and complementary tests performed. This information was used for risk stratification of the patients in the protocols of the American College of Sports Medicine, the Brazilian Society of Cardiology, the American Heart Association, the protocol designed by Frederic J. Pashkow, the American Association of Cardiovascular and Pulmonary Rehabilitation, the Société Française de Cardiologie, and the Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize the sample and the analysis of agreement between the protocols was calculated using the Kappa coefficient. Differences were considered with a significance level of 5%. Results Of the 21 analyses of agreement, 12 were considered significant between the protocols used for risk classification, with nine classified as moderate and three as low. No agreements were classified as excellent. Different proportions were observed in each risk category, with significant differences between the protocols for all risk categories. Conclusion The agreements between the protocols were considered low and moderate and the risk proportions differed between protocols. PMID:27556385

A Practical Risk Stratification Approach for Implementing a Primary Care Chronic Disease Management Program in an Underserved Community.

PubMed

Xu, Junjun; Williams-Livingston, Arletha; Gaglioti, Anne; McAllister, Calvin; Rust, George

2018-01-01

The use of value metrics is often dependent on payer-initiated health care management incentives. There is a need for practices to define and manage their own patient panels regardless of payer to participate effectively in population health management. A key step is to define a panel of primary care patients with high comorbidity profiles. Our sample included all patients seen in an urban academic family medicine clinic over a two-year period. The simplified risk stratification was built using internal electronic health record and billing system data based on ICD-9 codes. There were 347 patients classified as high-risk out of the 5,364 patient panel. Average age was 59 years (SD 15). Hypertension (90%), hyperlipidemia (62%), and depression (55%) were the most common conditions among high-risk patients. Simplified risk stratification provides a feasible option for our team to understand and respond to the nuances of population health in our underserved community.

Best practice in the use of natalizumab in multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Fernández, Oscar

2013-03-01

Natalizumab is approved for the treatment of patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis who have failed first-line treatment with traditional disease-modifying therapies or who have highly active disease. The drug has proved highly effective, both in a clinical trial setting and in clinical practice, with marked reductions in the rate of clinical relapses and slowed disease progression. These clinical outcomes are mirrored by a marked reduction in disease activity as evidenced by magnetic resonance imaging of the brain. However, natalizumab treatment has been associated with a risk of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML), a potentially fatal condition caused by JC virus (JCV) activation. When this condition was detected in a clinical trial shortly after approval, the drug was immediately and voluntarily withdrawn from the market. As a condition of its reinstatement, stringent pharmacovigilance measures and a risk management plan were enforced. The recent availability of a two-step enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) test for the presence of anti-JCV antibodies (free testing is available in a central laboratory for registered centers), along with an ever-improving understanding of other risk factors such as prior immunosuppressant use and duration of treatment, allow an increasingly refined stratification of the risk of PML. This improved stratification of risk can help guide decisions about treatment. This review will also deal with other topics of relevance to clinical practice such as the development of antinatalizumab antibodies and their negative implications in terms of hypersensitivity reactions and loss of efficacy, withdrawal of treatment, and compassionate pediatric use.

Revealing the timing of ocean stratification using remotely-sensed ocean fronts: links with marine predators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, P. I.; Loveday, B. R.

2016-02-01

Stratification is of critical importance to the mixing and productivity of the ocean, though currently it can only be measured using in situ sampling, profiling buoys or underwater autonomous vehicles. Stratification is understood to affect the surface aggregation of pelagic fish and hence the foraging behaviour and distribution of their predators such as seabirds and cetaceans. Satellite Earth observation sensors cannot directly detect stratification, but can observe surface features related to the presence of stratification, for example shelf-sea fronts that separate tidally-mixed water from seasonally stratified water. This presentation describes a novel algorithm that accumulates evidence for stratification from a sequence of oceanic front maps, and in certain regions can reveal the timing of the seasonal onset and breakdown of stratification. Initial comparisons will be made with seabird locations acquired through GPS tagging. If successful, a remotely-sensed stratification timing index would augment the ocean front metrics already developed at PML, that have been applied in over 20 journal articles relating marine predators to ocean fronts. The figure below shows a preliminary remotely-sensed 'stratification' index, for 25-31 Jul. 2010, where red indicates water with stronger evidence for stratification.

Diagnostic performance of an acoustic-based system for coronary artery disease risk stratification.

PubMed

Winther, Simon; Nissen, Louise; Schmidt, Samuel Emil; Westra, Jelmer Sybren; Rasmussen, Laust Dupont; Knudsen, Lars Lyhne; Madsen, Lene Helleskov; Kirk Johansen, Jane; Larsen, Bjarke Skogstad; Struijk, Johannes Jan; Frost, Lars; Holm, Niels Ramsing; Christiansen, Evald Høj; Botker, Hans Erik; Bøttcher, Morten

2018-06-01

Diagnosing coronary artery disease (CAD) continues to require substantial healthcare resources. Acoustic analysis of transcutaneous heart sounds of cardiac movement and intracoronary turbulence due to obstructive coronary disease could potentially change this. The aim of this study was thus to test the diagnostic accuracy of a new portable acoustic device for detection of CAD. We included 1675 patients consecutively with low to intermediate likelihood of CAD who had been referred for cardiac CT angiography. If significant obstruction was suspected in any coronary segment, patients were referred to invasive angiography and fractional flow reserve (FFR) assessment. Heart sound analysis was performed in all patients. A predefined acoustic CAD-score algorithm was evaluated; subsequently, we developed and validated an updated CAD-score algorithm that included both acoustic features and clinical risk factors. Low risk is indicated by a CAD-score value ≤20. Haemodynamically significant CAD assessed from FFR was present in 145 (10.0%) patients. In the entire cohort, the predefined CAD-score had a sensitivity of 63% and a specificity of 44%. In total, 50% had an updated CAD-score value ≤20. At this cut-off, sensitivity was 81% (95% CI 73% to 87%), specificity 53% (95% CI 50% to 56%), positive predictive value 16% (95% CI 13% to 18%) and negative predictive value 96% (95% CI 95% to 98%) for diagnosing haemodynamically significant CAD. Sound-based detection of CAD enables risk stratification superior to clinical risk scores. With a negative predictive value of 96%, this new acoustic rule-out system could potentially supplement clinical assessment to guide decisions on the need for further diagnostic investigation. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT02264717; Results. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Evaluation of 3D Ground Penetrating Radar Efficiency for Abandoned Tailings Pond Internal Structure Analysis and Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cortada, Unai; Martínez, Julián; Hidalgo, Mª Carmen; Rey, Javier

2017-04-01

Evaluation of 3D Ground Penetrating Radar Efficiency for Abandoned Tailings Pond Internal Structure Analysis and Risk Assessment Abandoned tailings ponds constitute a severe environmental problem in old Pb mining districts due to their high contents in metallic and semi-metallic elements. In most of the cases, there is a lack of information about the construction procedures and the previous environmental situation, which hinders the environmental risk evaluation. In these cases, Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) could be an interesting technique to analyze the internal structure of the tailings ponds and detect vulnerable zones for leaching processes. Consequently, the GPR could help in the abandoned tailings ponds environmental risk assessment. In this study, a GPR 3D campaign was carried out with a 250 MHz frequency antenna in order to evaluate the efficiency of this technique in both the analysis of internal structures and the environmental risk assessment. Subsequently, 2D and 3D models were undertaken to represent graphically the obtained results. The studied tailings pond is located in the Guadiel river bank, a water course draining the mining district of Linares, Spain. The dam is 150 m length and 80 m width. The GPR 3D was done in a selected area near the central part of the pond. The analyzed grid was 25x50 m and the spacing of the slides was 1 m. The study revealed that the contact between the tailings and the substratum is located at 2.5 m. No intermediate layer was found, which means that the tailings pond was heightened on the fluvial terrace without any insulation system. Inside the first meter of the pond, a cross stratification was identified. The orientation of those laminations changed with the depth, which means that the stockpiling was performed from the different sides of the tailings pond. Furthermore, the direction of these stratifications is slightly concentric to the middle of the dam which could be associated with a central drainage system. Therefore, the internal zone of the tailings pond appears to be the most vulnerable for leaching processes that could contaminate the groundwater. Thus, this technique gave detailed information of the internal structure at the first meters despite the rapid attenuation of the GPR signal. In consequence, the GPR 3D with 250 MHz antenna appears to be effective for the detection of the tailings ponds cross stratification and the tailings-soil contact in dams with less than 5 meters of thickness.

Unanswered questions for management of acute coronary syndrome: risk stratification of patients with minimal disease or normal findings on coronary angiography.

PubMed

Bugiardini, Raffaele; Manfrini, Olivia; De Ferrari, Gaetano M

2006-07-10

The prognostic implication of chest pain associated with normal or near-normal findings on angiography is still unknown. We explored outcomes and methods of risk stratification in patients with nonobstructive coronary artery disease in the setting of non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes. Data were pooled from 3 Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) trials (TIMI 11B, TIMI 16, and TIMI 22). Angiographic data were available on 7656 patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes. The primary end point of this analysis was the composite of the rates of death, myocardial infarction, unstable angina requiring rehospitalization, revascularization, and stroke at 1-year follow-up. Outcomes were evaluated by mean of the TIMI risk score for developing at least 1 component of the primary end point. Angiographic findings showed that 710 (9.1%) of 7656 patients had nonobstructive coronary artery disease; 48.7% of these had normal coronary arteries (0% stenosis), and 51.3% had mild coronary artery disease (>0% to <50% stenosis). A primary end-point event occurred in 101 patients (12.1%). It is noteworthy that a 2% event rate of deaths and myocardial infarctions had occurred in these patients at the 1-year follow-up. Event rates of death and myocardial infarction increased significantly as the TIMI risk score increased from 0.6% for a score of 1 to 4.0% for a score greater than 4. Patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes with nonobstructive coronary artery disease detected by angiography have a substantial risk of subsequent coronary events within 1 year. The risk is not univariately high, and the TIMI risk score helps to reveal patients at high risk.

Guidelines for hypertension treatment: applications for primary care practice--a review of the JNC VI report.

PubMed

Alexander, L M

1998-01-01

The Joint National Committee's report on the Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure was released in November 1997. With its release, an increased emphasis on "treating the patient, not just the number" has taken place. The report provides a comprehensive review of recent clinical evidence that helps guide clinical decision making in the care of the hypertensive patient. A new disease classification system entitled "risk stratification" is introduced and takes into account comorbid conditions that are present for many hypertensive individuals. This risk stratification is then linked to treatment strategies and provides a concise decision analysis framework to aid in clinical decision making. Community-based prevention strategies are also highlighted and should raise the awareness of clinicians to adopt these recommendations and integrate them more aggressively into daily practice. Increased emphasis on patient compliance to improve overall hypertension control rates is also presented. Maximum efficacy through once-daily dosing and fixed-dose combinations are reviewed in the report. The JNC report is a comprehensive resource for clinicians in primary care practice. Its evidenced-based approach is a wonderful teaching tool for those clinicians who also serve as clinical educators in primary care.

Combining abdominal and cosmetic breast surgery does not increase short-term complication rates: a comparison of each individual procedure and pretreatment risk stratification tool.

PubMed

Khavanin, Nima; Jordan, Sumanas W; Vieira, Brittany L; Hume, Keith M; Mlodinow, Alexei S; Simmons, Christopher J; Murphy, Robert X; Gutowski, Karol A; Kim, John Y S

2015-11-01

Combined abdominal and breast surgery presents a convenient and relatively cost-effective approach for accomplishing both procedures. This study is the largest to date assessing the safety of combined procedures, and it aims to develop a simple pretreatment risk stratification method for patients who desire a combined procedure. All women undergoing abdominoplasty, panniculectomy, augmentation mammaplasty, and/or mastopexy in the TOPS database were identified. Demographics and outcomes for combined procedures were compared to individual procedures using χ(2) and Student's t-tests. Multiple logistic regression provided adjusted odds ratios for the effect of a combined procedure on 30-day complications. Among combined procedures, a logistic regression model determined point values for pretreatment risk factors including diabetes (1 point), age over 53 (1), obesity (2), and 3+ ASA status (3), creating a 7-point pretreatment risk stratification tool. A total of 58,756 cases met inclusion criteria. Complication rates among combined procedures (9.40%) were greater than those of aesthetic breast surgery (2.66%; P < .001) but did not significantly differ from abdominal procedures (9.75%; P = .530). Nearly 77% of combined cases were classified as low-risk (0 points total) with a 9.78% complication rates. Medium-risk patients (1 to 3 points) had a 16.63% complication rate, and high-risk (4 to 7 points) 38.46%. Combining abdominal and breast procedures is safe in the majority of patients and does not increase 30-day complications rates. The risk stratification tool can continue to ensure favorable outcomes for patients who may desire a combined surgery. 4 Risk. © 2015 The American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery, Inc. Reprints and permission: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A new stratification of mourning dove call-count routes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blankenship, L.H.; Humphrey, A.B.; MacDonald, D.

1971-01-01

The mourning dove (Zenaidura macroura) call-count survey is a nationwide audio-census of breeding mourning doves. Recent analyses of the call-count routes have utilized a stratification based upon physiographic regions of the United States. An analysis of 5 years of call-count data, based upon stratification using potential natural vegetation, has demonstrated that this uew stratification results in strata with greater homogeneity than the physiographic strata, provides lower error variance, and hence generates greatet precision in the analysis without an increase in call-count routes. Error variance was reduced approximately 30 percent for the contiguous United States. This indicates that future analysis based upon the new stratification will result in an increased ability to detect significant year-to-year changes.

Mortality risk stratification in severely anaemic Jehovah's Witness patients.

PubMed

Beliaev, A M; Marshall, R J; Smith, W; Windsor, J A

2012-03-01

The aim of this retrospective cohort study was to identify early risk factors of mortality and develop a mortality risk stratification instrument for severely anaemic Jehovah's Witness patients. It has been shown that Jehovah's Witness patients with the Auckland Anaemia Mortality Risk Score (Auckland AMRS) of 0 to 3 had 4% mortality, Auckland AMRS 4 to 5 32%, Auckland AMRS 6 to 7 50% and Auckland AMRS 8 and above 83%. It is concluded that the Auckland AMRS predicts mortality of severely anaemic Jehovah's Witness patients. © 2012 The Authors. Internal Medicine Journal © 2012 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

A Risk Stratification Model for Lung Cancer Based on Gene Coexpression Network and Deep Learning

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Risk stratification model for lung cancer with gene expression profile is of great interest. Instead of previous models based on individual prognostic genes, we aimed to develop a novel system-level risk stratification model for lung adenocarcinoma based on gene coexpression network. Using multiple microarray, gene coexpression network analysis was performed to identify survival-related networks. A deep learning based risk stratification model was constructed with representative genes of these networks. The model was validated in two test sets. Survival analysis was performed using the output of the model to evaluate whether it could predict patients' survival independent of clinicopathological variables. Five networks were significantly associated with patients' survival. Considering prognostic significance and representativeness, genes of the two survival-related networks were selected for input of the model. The output of the model was significantly associated with patients' survival in two test sets and training set (p < 0.00001, p < 0.0001 and p = 0.02 for training and test sets 1 and 2, resp.). In multivariate analyses, the model was associated with patients' prognosis independent of other clinicopathological features. Our study presents a new perspective on incorporating gene coexpression networks into the gene expression signature and clinical application of deep learning in genomic data science for prognosis prediction. PMID:29581968

Stratification of Recanalization for Patients with Endovascular Treatment of Intracranial Aneurysms

PubMed Central

Ogilvy, Christopher S.; Chua, Michelle H.; Fusco, Matthew R.; Reddy, Arra S.; Thomas, Ajith J.

2015-01-01

Background With increasing utilization of endovascular techniques in the treatment of both ruptured and unruptured intracranial aneurysms, the issue of obliteration efficacy has become increasingly important. Objective Our goal was to systematically develop a comprehensive model for predicting retreatment with various types of endovascular treatment. Methods We retrospectively reviewed medical records that were prospectively collected for 305 patients who received endovascular treatment for intracranial aneurysms from 2007 to 2013. Multivariable logistic regression was performed on candidate predictors identified by univariable screening analysis to detect independent predictors of retreatment. A composite risk score was constructed based on the proportional contribution of independent predictors in the multivariable model. Results Size (>10 mm), aneurysm rupture, stent assistance, and post-treatment degree of aneurysm occlusion were independently associated with retreatment while intraluminal thrombosis and flow diversion demonstrated a trend towards retreatment. The Aneurysm Recanalization Stratification Scale was constructed by assigning the following weights to statistically and clinically significant predictors. Aneurysm-specific factors: Size (>10 mm), 2 points; rupture, 2 points; presence of thrombus, 2 points. Treatment-related factors: Stent assistance, -1 point; flow diversion, -2 points; Raymond Roy 2 occlusion, 1 point; Raymond Roy 3 occlusion, 2 points. This scale demonstrated good discrimination with a C-statistic of 0.799. Conclusion Surgical decision-making and patient-centered informed consent require comprehensive and accessible information on treatment efficacy. We have constructed the Aneurysm Recanalization Stratification Scale to enhance this decision-making process. This is the first comprehensive model that has been developed to quantitatively predict the risk of retreatment following endovascular therapy. PMID:25621984

TP53 Mutational Status Is a Potential Marker for Risk Stratification in Wilms Tumour with Diffuse Anaplasia

PubMed Central

Chagtai, Tasnim; Popov, Sergey D.; Sebire, Neil J.; Vujanic, Gordan; Perlman, Elizabeth; Anderson, James R.; Grundy, Paul; Dome, Jeffrey S.; Pritchard-Jones, Kathy

2014-01-01

Purpose The presence of diffuse anaplasia in Wilms tumours (DAWT) is associated with TP53 mutations and poor outcome. As patients receive intensified treatment, we sought to identify whether TP53 mutational status confers additional prognostic information. Patients and Methods We studied 40 patients with DAWT with anaplasia in the tissue from which DNA was extracted and analysed for TP53 mutations and 17p loss. The majority of cases were profiled by copy number (n = 32) and gene expression (n = 36) arrays. TP53 mutational status was correlated with patient event-free and overall survival, genomic copy number instability and gene expression profiling. Results From the 40 cases, 22 (55%) had TP53 mutations (2 detected only after deep-sequencing), 20 of which also had 17p loss (91%); 18 (45%) cases had no detectable mutation but three had 17p loss. Tumours with TP53 mutations and/or 17p loss (n = 25) had an increased risk of recurrence as a first event (p = 0.03, hazard ratio (HR), 3.89; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.26–16.0) and death (p = 0.04, HR, 4.95; 95% CI, 1.36–31.7) compared to tumours lacking TP53 abnormalities. DAWT carrying TP53 mutations showed increased copy number alterations compared to those with wild-type, suggesting a more unstable genome (p = 0.03). These tumours showed deregulation of genes associated with cell cycle and DNA repair biological processes. Conclusion This study provides evidence that TP53 mutational analysis improves risk stratification in DAWT. This requires validation in an independent cohort before clinical use as a biomarker. PMID:25313908

TP53 mutational status is a potential marker for risk stratification in Wilms tumour with diffuse anaplasia.

PubMed

Maschietto, Mariana; Williams, Richard D; Chagtai, Tasnim; Popov, Sergey D; Sebire, Neil J; Vujanic, Gordan; Perlman, Elizabeth; Anderson, James R; Grundy, Paul; Dome, Jeffrey S; Pritchard-Jones, Kathy

2014-01-01

The presence of diffuse anaplasia in Wilms tumours (DAWT) is associated with TP53 mutations and poor outcome. As patients receive intensified treatment, we sought to identify whether TP53 mutational status confers additional prognostic information. We studied 40 patients with DAWT with anaplasia in the tissue from which DNA was extracted and analysed for TP53 mutations and 17p loss. The majority of cases were profiled by copy number (n = 32) and gene expression (n = 36) arrays. TP53 mutational status was correlated with patient event-free and overall survival, genomic copy number instability and gene expression profiling. From the 40 cases, 22 (55%) had TP53 mutations (2 detected only after deep-sequencing), 20 of which also had 17p loss (91%); 18 (45%) cases had no detectable mutation but three had 17p loss. Tumours with TP53 mutations and/or 17p loss (n = 25) had an increased risk of recurrence as a first event (p = 0.03, hazard ratio (HR), 3.89; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.26-16.0) and death (p = 0.04, HR, 4.95; 95% CI, 1.36-31.7) compared to tumours lacking TP53 abnormalities. DAWT carrying TP53 mutations showed increased copy number alterations compared to those with wild-type, suggesting a more unstable genome (p = 0.03). These tumours showed deregulation of genes associated with cell cycle and DNA repair biological processes. This study provides evidence that TP53 mutational analysis improves risk stratification in DAWT. This requires validation in an independent cohort before clinical use as a biomarker.

The Heinz Nixdorf Recall study and its potential impact on the adoption of atherosclerosis imaging in European primary prevention guidelines.

PubMed

Mahabadi, Amir A; Möhlenkamp, Stefan; Moebus, Susanne; Dragano, Nico; Kälsch, Hagen; Bauer, Marcus; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Erbel, Raimund

2011-10-01

Non-contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) imaging of the heart enables noninvasive quantification of coronary artery calcification (CAC), a surrogate marker of the atherosclerotic burden in the coronary artery tree. Multiple studies have underlined the ability of CAC score for individual risk stratification and, accordingly, the American Heart Association recommended cardiac CT for risk assessment in individuals with an intermediate risk of cardiovascular events as measured by Framingham Risk Score. However, limitations in transcribing risk stratification algorithms based on American cohort studies into European populations have been acknowledged in the past. Moreover, data on implications for reclassification into higher- or lower-risk groups based on CAC scores were lacking. The Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) study is a population-based cohort study that investigated the ability of CAC scoring in risk prediction for major cardiovascular events above and beyond traditional cardiovascular risk factors. According to Heinz Nixdorf Recall findings, CAC can be used for reclassification, especially in those in the intermediate-risk group, to advise on lifestyle changes for the reclassified low-risk category, or to implement intensive treatments for the reclassified high-risk individuals. This article discusses the present findings of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study with respect to the current literature, risk stratification algorithms, and current European guidelines for risk prediction.

Raynaud’s phenomenon and digital ischemia: a practical approach to risk stratification, diagnosis and management

PubMed Central

McMahan, Zsuzsanna H.; Wigley, Fredrick M.

2015-01-01

Digital ischemia is a painful and often disfiguring event. Such an ischemic event often leads to tissue loss and can significantly affect the patient’s quality of life. Digital ischemia can be secondary to a vasculopathy, vasculitis, embolic disease, trauma, or extrinsic vascular compression. It is an especially serious complication in patients with scleroderma. Risk stratification of patients with scleroderma at risk for digital ischemia is now possible with clinical assessment and autoantibody profiles. Because there are a variety of conditions that lead to digital ischemia, it is important to understand the pathophysiology underlying each ischemic presentation in order to target therapy appropriately. Significant progress has been made in the last two decades in defining the pathophysiological processes leading to digital ischemia in rheumatic diseases. In this article we review the risk stratification, diagnosis, and management of patients with digital ischemia and provide a practical approach to therapy, particularly in scleroderma. PMID:26523153

Computational cardiology and risk stratification for sudden cardiac death: one of the grand challenges for cardiology in the 21st century.

PubMed

Hill, Adam P; Perry, Matthew D; Abi-Gerges, Najah; Couderc, Jean-Philippe; Fermini, Bernard; Hancox, Jules C; Knollmann, Bjorn C; Mirams, Gary R; Skinner, Jon; Zareba, Wojciech; Vandenberg, Jamie I

2016-12-01

Risk stratification in the context of sudden cardiac death has been acknowledged as one of the major challenges facing cardiology for the past four decades. In recent years, the advent of high performance computing has facilitated organ-level simulation of the heart, meaning we can now examine the causes, mechanisms and impact of cardiac dysfunction in silico. As a result, computational cardiology, largely driven by the Physiome project, now stands at the threshold of clinical utility in regards to risk stratification and treatment of patients at risk of sudden cardiac death. In this white paper, we outline a roadmap of what needs to be done to make this translational step, using the relatively well-developed case of acquired or drug-induced long QT syndrome as an exemplar case. © 2016 The Authors. The Journal of Physiology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Physiological Society.

HE4 as a biomarker for ovarian and endometrial cancer management

PubMed Central

Li, Jinping; Dowdy, Sean; Tipton, Tracy; Podratz, Karl; Lu, Wei-Guo; Xie, Xing; Jiang, Shi-Wen

2012-01-01

Ovarian and endometrial cancer will be diagnosed in over 63,000 women in 2009, resulting in 22,000 deaths in the USA. Histologic screening, such as pap smears for detection of cervical cancer, is not feasible for these diseases given difficulty with access to the tissue. Thus, a serum-screening test using a biomarker or panel of biomarkers would be useful to aid in cancer diagnosis, detection of recurrence and as a means to monitor response to therapy. In this review, we focus on the human epididymis protein (HE)4 gene, which appears to have potential as a biomarker for both of these diseases. The structure and methods of detection of HE4 are discussed. Preliminary data show that HE4 may have more potential than cancer antigen 125 in discriminating benign from cancerous ovarian masses, and has the strongest correlation with endometrial cancer of all markers tested to date. Utilizing risk stratification, a panel of biomarkers including HE4 may ultimately be useful for detecting ovarian and endometrial cancer at an early stage in patients at high risk. PMID:19732003

Differential diagnosis of cardiovascular diseases and T-wave alternans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramasamy, Mouli; Varadan, Vijay K.

2016-04-01

T wave alternans (TWA) is the variation of the T-wave in electrocardiogram that is observed between periodic beats. TWA is one of the important precursors used to diagnose sudden cardiac death (SCD). Several clinical studies have tried to determine the significance of using TWA analysis to detect abnormalities that may lead to Ventricular Arrhythmias, as well as establish metrics to perform risk stratification for cardiovascular patients with prior cardiac episodes. The statistical significance of TWA in predicting ventricular arrhythmias has been established in patients across several diagnoses. Studies have also shown the significance of the predictive value of TWA analysis in post myocardial infarction patients, risk of SCD, congestive heart failure, ischemic cardiomyopathy, and Chagas disease.

Cardiovascular risk assessment: addition of CKD and race to the Framingham equation

PubMed Central

Drawz, Paul E.; Baraniuk, Sarah; Davis, Barry R.; Brown, Clinton D.; Colon, Pedro J.; Cujyet, Aloysius B.; Dart, Richard A.; Graumlich, James F.; Henriquez, Mario A.; Moloo, Jamaluddin; Sakalayen, Mohammed G.; Simmons, Debra L.; Stanford, Carol; Sweeney, Mary Ellen; Wong, Nathan D.; Rahman, Mahboob

2012-01-01

Background/Aims The value of the Framingham equation in predicting cardiovascular risk in African Americans and patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is unclear. The purpose of the study was to evaluate whether the addition of CKD and race to the Framingham equation improves risk stratification in hypertensive patients. Methods Participants in the Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial (ALLHAT) were studied. Those randomized to doxazosin, age greater than 74 years, and those with a history of coronary heart disease (CHD) were excluded. Two risk stratification models were developed using Cox proportional hazards models in a two-thirds developmental sample. The first model included the traditional Framingham risk factors. The second model included the traditional risk factors plus CKD, defined by eGFR categories, and stratification by race (Black vs. Non-Black). The primary outcome was a composite of fatal CHD, nonfatal MI, coronary revascularization, and hospitalized angina. Results There were a total of 19,811 eligible subjects. In the validation cohort, there was no difference in C-statistics between the Framingham equation and the ALLHAT model including CKD and race. This was consistent across subgroups by race and gender and among those with CKD. One exception was among Non-Black women where the C-statistic was higher for the Framingham equation (0.68 vs 0.65, P=0.02). Additionally, net reclassification improvement was not significant for any subgroup based on race and gender, ranging from −5.5% to 4.4%. Conclusion The addition of CKD status and stratification by race does not improve risk prediction in high-risk hypertensive patients. PMID:23194494

A comparison of five methods of measuring mammographic density: a case-control study.

PubMed

Astley, Susan M; Harkness, Elaine F; Sergeant, Jamie C; Warwick, Jane; Stavrinos, Paula; Warren, Ruth; Wilson, Mary; Beetles, Ursula; Gadde, Soujanya; Lim, Yit; Jain, Anil; Bundred, Sara; Barr, Nicola; Reece, Valerie; Brentnall, Adam R; Cuzick, Jack; Howell, Tony; Evans, D Gareth

2018-02-05

High mammographic density is associated with both risk of cancers being missed at mammography, and increased risk of developing breast cancer. Stratification of breast cancer prevention and screening requires mammographic density measures predictive of cancer. This study compares five mammographic density measures to determine the association with subsequent diagnosis of breast cancer and the presence of breast cancer at screening. Women participating in the "Predicting Risk Of Cancer At Screening" (PROCAS) study, a study of cancer risk, completed questionnaires to provide personal information to enable computation of the Tyrer-Cuzick risk score. Mammographic density was assessed by visual analogue scale (VAS), thresholding (Cumulus) and fully-automated methods (Densitas, Quantra, Volpara) in contralateral breasts of 366 women with unilateral breast cancer (cases) detected at screening on entry to the study (Cumulus 311/366) and in 338 women with cancer detected subsequently. Three controls per case were matched using age, body mass index category, hormone replacement therapy use and menopausal status. Odds ratios (OR) between the highest and lowest quintile, based on the density distribution in controls, for each density measure were estimated by conditional logistic regression, adjusting for classic risk factors. The strongest predictor of screen-detected cancer at study entry was VAS, OR 4.37 (95% CI 2.72-7.03) in the highest vs lowest quintile of percent density after adjustment for classical risk factors. Volpara, Densitas and Cumulus gave ORs for the highest vs lowest quintile of 2.42 (95% CI 1.56-3.78), 2.17 (95% CI 1.41-3.33) and 2.12 (95% CI 1.30-3.45), respectively. Quantra was not significantly associated with breast cancer (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.67-1.54). Similar results were found for subsequent cancers, with ORs of 4.48 (95% CI 2.79-7.18), 2.87 (95% CI 1.77-4.64) and 2.34 (95% CI 1.50-3.68) in highest vs lowest quintiles of VAS, Volpara and Densitas, respectively. Quantra gave an OR in the highest vs lowest quintile of 1.32 (95% CI 0.85-2.05). Visual density assessment demonstrated a strong relationship with cancer, despite known inter-observer variability; however, it is impractical for population-based screening. Percentage density measured by Volpara and Densitas also had a strong association with breast cancer risk, amongst the automated measures evaluated, providing practical automated methods for risk stratification.

Value of Exercise Stress Electrocardiography for Risk Stratification in Patients With Suspected or Known Coronary Artery Disease in the Era of Advanced Imaging Technologies

PubMed Central

Bourque, Jamieson M.; Beller, George A.

2015-01-01

Exercise stress electrocardiography (ExECG) is underutilized as the initial test modality in patients with interpretable electrocardiograms able to exercise. Although, stress myocardial imaging techniques provide valuable diagnostic and prognostic information, variables derived from ExECG can yield substantial data for risk stratification, either supplementary to imaging variables, or without concurrent imaging. In addition to exercise-induced ischemic ST depression, such markers as ST segment elevation in lead AVR, abnormal heart rate recovery post-exercise, failure to achieve target heart rate, and poor exercise capacity improve risk stratification of ExECG. For example, patients achieving ≥10 METS on ExECG have a very low prevalence of inducible ischemia and an excellent prognosis. In contrast, cardiac imaging techniques add diagnostic and prognostic value in higher risk populations (e.g. poor functional capacity, diabetes, chronic kidney disease). Optimal test selection for symptomatic patients with suspected coronary artery disease requires a patient-centered approach factoring in the risk/benefit ratio and cost-effectiveness. PMID:26563861

Vertical Stratification of Soil Phosphorus as a Concern for Dissolved Phosphorus Runoff in the Lake Erie Basin.

PubMed

Baker, David B; Johnson, Laura T; Confesor, Remegio B; Crumrine, John P

2017-11-01

During the re-eutrophication of Lake Erie, dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) loading and concentrations to the lake have nearly doubled, while particulate phosphorus (PP) has remained relatively constant. One potential cause of increased DRP concentrations is P stratification, or the buildup of soil-test P (STP) in the upper soil layer (<5 cm). Stratification often accompanies no-till and mulch-till practices that reduce erosion and PP loading, practices that have been widely implemented throughout the Lake Erie Basin. To evaluate the extent of P stratification in the Sandusky Watershed, certified crop advisors were enlisted to collect stratified soil samples (0-5 or 0-2.5 cm) alongside their normal agronomic samples (0-20 cm) ( = 1758 fields). The mean STP level in the upper 2.5 cm was 55% higher than the mean of agronomic samples used for fertilizer recommendations. The amounts of stratification were highly variable and did not correlate with agronomic STPs (Spearman's = 0.039, = 0.178). Agronomic STP in 70% of the fields was within the buildup or maintenance ranges for corn ( L.) and soybeans [ (L.) Merr.] (0-46 mg kg Mehlich-3 P). The cumulative risks for DRP runoff from the large number of fields in the buildup and maintenance ranges exceeded the risks from fields above those ranges. Reducing stratification by a one-time soil inversion has the potential for larger and quicker reductions in DRP runoff risk than practices related to drawing down agronomic STP levels. Periodic soil inversion and mixing, targeted by stratified STP data, should be considered a viable practice to reduce DRP loading to Lake Erie. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Cytoplasmic expression of C-MYC protein is associated with risk stratification of mantle cell lymphoma.

PubMed

Gong, Yi; Zhang, Xi; Chen, Rui; Wei, Yan; Zou, Zhongmin; Chen, Xinghua

2017-01-01

To investigate the association of C-MYC protein expression and risk stratification in mantle cell lymphoma (MCL), and to evaluate the utility of C-MYC protein as a prognostic biomarker in clinical practice. We conducted immunohistochemical staining of C-MYC, Programmed cell death ligand 1 (PD-L1), CD8, Ki-67, p53 and SRY (sex determining region Y) -11 (SOX11) to investigate their expression in 64 patients with MCL. The staining results and other clinical data were evaluated for their roles in risk stratification of MCL cases using ANOVA, Chi-square, and Spearman's Rank correlation coefficient analysis. Immunohistochemical staining in our study indicated that SOX11, Ki-67 and p53 presented nuclear positivity of tumor cells, CD8 showed membrane positivity in infiltrating T lymphocytes while PD-L1 showed membrane and cytoplasmic positivity mainly in macrophage cells and little in tumor cells. We observed positive staining of C-MYC either in the nucleus or cytoplasm or in both subcellular locations. There were significant differences in cytoplasmic C-MYC expression, Ki-67 proliferative index of tumor cells, and CD8 positive tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (CD8+TIL) among three risk groups ( P  = 0.000, P  = 0.037 and P =0.020, respectively). However, no significant differences existed in the expression of nuclear C-MYC, SOX11, p53, and PD-L1 in MCL patients with low-, intermediate-, and high risks. In addition, patient age and serum LDH level were also significantly different among 3 groups of patients ( P  = 0.006 and P  = 0.000, respectively). Spearman's rank correlation coefficient analysis indicated that cytoplasmic C-MYC expression, Ki-67 index, age, WBC, as well as LDH level had significantly positive correlations with risk stratification ( P  = 0.000, 0.015, 0.000, 0.029 and 0.000, respectively), while CD8+TIL in tumor microenvironment negatively correlated with risk stratification of patients ( P  = 0.006). Patients with increased positive cytoplasmic expression of C-MYC protein and decreased CD8+TIL appeared to be associated with a poor response to chemotherapy, but the correlation was not statistically significant. Our study suggested that assessment of cytoplasmic C-MYC overexpression and cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) by immunohistochemical staining might be helpful for MCL risk stratification and outcome prediction. However, large cohort studies of MCL patients with complete follow up are needed to validate our speculation.

End-of-radiation PSA as a novel prognostic factor in patients undergoing definitive radiation and androgen deprivation therapy for prostate cancer

PubMed Central

Narang, Amol K.; Trieu, Janson; Radwan, Noura; Ram, Ashwin; Robertson, Scott P.; He, Pei; Gergis, Carol; Griffith, Emily; Singh, Harleen; DeWeese, Tate A.; Honig, Stephanie; Annadanam, Anvesh; Greco, Stephen; DeVille, Curtiland; McNutt, Todd; DeWeese, Theodore L.; Song, Daniel Y.; Tran, Phuoc T.

2016-01-01

Background In men undergoing definitive radiation for prostate cancer, it is unclear whether early biochemical response can provide additional prognostic value beyond pre-treatment risk stratification. Methods Prostate cancer patients consecutively treated with definitive radiation at our institution by a single provider from 1993–2006 and who had an EOR PSA (n=688, median follow-up 11.2 years). We analyzed the association of an end-of-radiation (EOR) prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, obtained during the last week of radiation, with survival outcomes. Multivariable-adjusted cox proportional hazards models were constructed to assess associations between a detectable EOR PSA (defined as ≥0.1 ng ml−1) and biochemical failure-free survival (BFFS), metastasis-free survival (MFS), prostate cancer-specific survival (PCSS), and overall survival (OS). Kaplan-Meier survival curves were constructed, with stratification by EOR PSA. Results At the end of radiation, the PSA level was undetectable in 30% of patients. Men with a detectable EOR PSA experienced inferior 10-year BFFS (49.7% vs. 64.4%, p<0.001), 10-year MFS (84.8% vs. 92.0%, p=0.003), 10-year PCSS (94.3% vs. 98.2%, p=0.007), and 10-year OS (75.8% vs. 82.5%, p=0.01), as compared to men with an undetectable EOR PSA. Among NCCN intermediate- and high-risk men who were treated with definitive radiation and androgen deprivation therapy (ADT), a detectable EOR PSA was more strongly associated with PCSS than initial NCCN risk level (EOR PSA: HR 5.89, 95% CI 2.37–14.65, p<0.001; NCCN risk level: HR 2.01, 95% CI 0.74–5.42, p=0.168). Main study limitations are retrospective study design and associated biases. Conclusions EOR PSA was significantly associated with survival endpoints in men who received treated with definitive radiation and ADT. Whether the EOR PSA can be used to modulate treatment intensity merits further investigation. PMID:28094250

Best practice in the use of natalizumab in multiple sclerosis

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Natalizumab is approved for the treatment of patients with relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis who have failed first-line treatment with traditional disease-modifying therapies or who have highly active disease. The drug has proved highly effective, both in a clinical trial setting and in clinical practice, with marked reductions in the rate of clinical relapses and slowed disease progression. These clinical outcomes are mirrored by a marked reduction in disease activity as evidenced by magnetic resonance imaging of the brain. However, natalizumab treatment has been associated with a risk of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML), a potentially fatal condition caused by JC virus (JCV) activation. When this condition was detected in a clinical trial shortly after approval, the drug was immediately and voluntarily withdrawn from the market. As a condition of its reinstatement, stringent pharmacovigilance measures and a risk management plan were enforced. The recent availability of a two-step enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) test for the presence of anti-JCV antibodies (free testing is available in a central laboratory for registered centers), along with an ever-improving understanding of other risk factors such as prior immunosuppressant use and duration of treatment, allow an increasingly refined stratification of the risk of PML. This improved stratification of risk can help guide decisions about treatment. This review will also deal with other topics of relevance to clinical practice such as the development of antinatalizumab antibodies and their negative implications in terms of hypersensitivity reactions and loss of efficacy, withdrawal of treatment, and compassionate pediatric use. PMID:23483450

Rationale, objectives, and design of the EUTrigTreat clinical study: a prospective observational study for arrhythmia risk stratification and assessment of interrelationships among repolarization markers and genotype

PubMed Central

Seegers, Joachim; Vos, Marc A.; Flevari, Panagiota; Willems, Rik; Sohns, Christian; Vollmann, Dirk; Lüthje, Lars; Kremastinos, Dimitrios T.; Floré, Vincent; Meine, Mathias; Tuinenburg, Anton; Myles, Rachel C.; Simon, Dirk; Brockmöller, Jürgen; Friede, Tim; Hasenfuß, Gerd; Lehnart, Stephan E.; Zabel, Markus

2012-01-01

Aims The EUTrigTreat clinical study has been designed as a prospective multicentre observational study and aims to (i) risk stratify patients with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) for mortality and shock risk using multiple novel and established risk markers, (ii) explore a link between repolarization biomarkers and genetics of ion (Ca2+, Na+, K+) metabolism, (iii) compare the results of invasive and non-invasive electrophysiological (EP) testing, (iv) assess changes of non-invasive risk stratification tests over time, and (v) associate arrythmogenomic risk through 19 candidate genes. Methods and results Patients with clinical ICD indication are eligible for the trial. Upon inclusion, patients will undergo non-invasive risk stratification, including beat-to-beat variability of repolarization (BVR), T-wave alternans, T-wave morphology variables, ambient arrhythmias from Holter, heart rate variability, and heart rate turbulence. Non-invasive or invasive programmed electrical stimulation will assess inducibility of ventricular arrhythmias, with the latter including recordings of monophasic action potentials and assessment of restitution properties. Established candidate genes are screened for variants. The primary endpoint is all-cause mortality, while one of the secondary endpoints is ICD shock risk. A mean follow-up of 3.3 years is anticipated. Non-invasive testing will be repeated annually during follow-up. It has been calculated that 700 patients are required to identify risk predictors of the primary endpoint, with a possible increase to 1000 patients based on interim risk analysis. Conclusion The EUTrigTreat clinical study aims to overcome current shortcomings in sudden cardiac death risk stratification and to answer several related research questions. The initial patient recruitment is expected to be completed in July 2012, and follow-up is expected to end in September 2014. Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT01209494. PMID:22117037

Optimization of prostate biopsy: the role of magnetic resonance imaging targeted biopsy in detection, localization and risk assessment.

PubMed

Bjurlin, Marc A; Meng, Xiaosong; Le Nobin, Julien; Wysock, James S; Lepor, Herbert; Rosenkrantz, Andrew B; Taneja, Samir S

2014-09-01

Optimization of prostate biopsy requires addressing the shortcomings of standard systematic transrectal ultrasound guided biopsy, including false-negative rates, incorrect risk stratification, detection of clinically insignificant disease and the need for repeat biopsy. Magnetic resonance imaging is an evolving noninvasive imaging modality that increases the accurate localization of prostate cancer at the time of biopsy, and thereby enhances clinical risk assessment and improves the ability to appropriately counsel patients regarding therapy. In this review we 1) summarize the various sequences that comprise a prostate multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging examination along with its performance characteristics in cancer detection, localization and reporting standards; 2) evaluate potential applications of magnetic resonance imaging targeting in prostate biopsy among men with no previous biopsy, a negative previous biopsy and those with low stage cancer; and 3) describe the techniques of magnetic resonance imaging targeted biopsy and comparative study outcomes. A bibliographic search covering the period up to October 2013 was conducted using MEDLINE®/PubMed®. Articles were reviewed and categorized based on which of the 3 objectives of this review was addressed. Data were extracted, analyzed and summarized. Multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging consists of anatomical T2-weighted imaging coupled with at least 2 functional imaging techniques. It has demonstrated improved prostate cancer detection sensitivity up to 80% in the peripheral zone and 81% in the transition zone. A prostate cancer magnetic resonance imaging suspicion score has been developed, and is depicted using the Likert or PI-RADS (Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System) scale for better standardization of magnetic resonance imaging interpretation and reporting. Among men with no previous biopsy, magnetic resonance imaging increases the frequency of significant cancer detection to 50% in low risk and 71% in high risk patients. In low risk men the negative predictive value of a combination of negative magnetic resonance imaging with prostate volume parameters is nearly 98%, suggesting a potential role in avoiding biopsy and reducing over detection/overtreatment. Among men with a previous negative biopsy 72% to 87% of cancers detected by magnetic resonance imaging guidance are clinically significant. Among men with a known low risk cancer, repeat biopsy using magnetic resonance targeting demonstrates a high likelihood of confirming low risk disease in low suspicion score lesions and of upgrading in high suspicion score lesions. Techniques of magnetic resonance imaging targeted biopsy include visual estimation transrectal ultrasound guided biopsy; software co-registered magnetic resonance imaging-ultrasound, transrectal ultrasound guided biopsy; and in-bore magnetic resonance imaging guided biopsy. Although the improvement in accuracy and efficiency of visual estimation biopsy compared to systematic appears limited, co-registered magnetic resonance imaging-ultrasound biopsy as well as in-bore magnetic resonance imaging guided biopsy appear to increase cancer detection rates in conjunction with increasing suspicion score. Use of magnetic resonance imaging for targeting prostate biopsies has the potential to reduce the sampling error associated with conventional biopsy by providing better disease localization and sampling. More accurate risk stratification through improved cancer sampling may impact therapeutic decision making. Optimal clinical application of magnetic resonance imaging targeted biopsy remains under investigation. Copyright © 2014 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A new evidence-based risk stratification system for cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma into low, intermediate, and high risk groups with implications for management.

PubMed

Baum, Christian L; Wright, Adam C; Martinez, Juan-Carlos; Arpey, Christopher J; Brewer, Jerry D; Roenigk, Randall K; Otley, Clark C

2018-01-01

Most primary cutaneous squamous cell carcinomas are cured with surgery. A subset, however, may develop local and nodal metastasis that may eventuate in disease-specific; death. This subset has been variably termed high risk. Herein, we review; an emerging body of data on the risks of these outcomes and propose an evidence-based; risk stratification for low-, intermediate-, and high-risk tumors that takes into; account both tumor and patient characteristics. Finally, we discuss a framework for; management of these tumors on the basis of data, when available, and our; recommendations when data are sparse. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Metabolomic analysis of 92 pulmonary embolism patients from a nested case-control study identifies metabolites associated with adverse clinical outcomes.

PubMed

Zeleznik, O A; Poole, E M; Lindstrom, S; Kraft, P; Van Hylckama Vlieg, A; Lasky-Su, J A; Harrington, L B; Hagan, K; Kim, J; Parry, B A; Giordano, N; Kabrhel, C

2018-03-01

Essentials Risk-stratification often fails to predict clinical deterioration in pulmonary embolism (PE). First-ever high-throughput metabolomics analysis of risk-stratified PE patients. Changes in circulating metabolites reflect a compromised energy metabolism in PE. Metabolites play a key role in the pathophysiology and risk stratification of PE. Background Patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) exhibit wide variation in clinical presentation and outcomes. Our understanding of the pathophysiologic mechanisms differentiating low-risk and high-risk PE is limited, so current risk-stratification efforts often fail to predict clinical deterioration and are insufficient to guide management. Objectives To improve our understanding of the physiology differentiating low-risk from high-risk PE, we conducted the first-ever high-throughput metabolomics analysis (843 named metabolites) comparing PE patients across risk strata within a nested case-control study. Patients/methods We enrolled 92 patients diagnosed with acute PE and collected plasma within 24 h of PE diagnosis. We used linear regression and pathway analysis to identify metabolites and pathways associated with PE risk-strata. Results When we compared 46 low-risk with 46 intermediate/high-risk PEs, 50 metabolites were significantly different after multiple testing correction. These metabolites were enriched in the following pathways: tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle, fatty acid metabolism (acyl carnitine) and purine metabolism, (hypo)xanthine/inosine containing. Additionally, energy, nucleotide and amino acid pathways were downregulated in intermediate/high-risk PE patients. When we compared 28 intermediate-risk with 18 high-risk PE patients, 41 metabolites differed at a nominal P-value level. These metabolites were enriched in fatty acid metabolism (acyl cholines), and hemoglobin and porphyrin metabolism. Conclusion Our results suggest that high-throughput metabolomics can provide insight into the pathophysiology of PE. Specifically, changes in circulating metabolites reflect compromised energy metabolism in intermediate/high-risk PE patients. These findings demonstrate the important role metabolites play in the pathophysiology of PE and highlight metabolomics as a potential tool for risk stratification of PE. © 2017 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

Comparison of Accuracy of Diabetes Risk Score and Components of the Metabolic Syndrome in Assessing Risk of Incident Type 2 Diabetes in Inter99 Cohort

PubMed Central

Shafizadeh, Tracy B.; Moler, Edward J.; Kolberg, Janice A.; Nguyen, Uyen Thao; Hansen, Torben; Jorgensen, Torben; Pedersen, Oluf; Borch-Johnsen, Knut

2011-01-01

Background Given the increasing worldwide incidence of diabetes, methods to assess diabetes risk which would identify those at highest risk are needed. We compared two risk-stratification approaches for incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM); factors of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and a previously developed diabetes risk score, PreDx® Diabetes Risk Score (DRS). DRS assesses 5 yr risk of incident T2DM based on the measurement of 7 biomarkers in fasting blood. Methodology/Principal Findings DRS was evaluated in baseline serum samples from 4,128 non-diabetic subjects in the Inter99 cohort (Danes aged 30–60) for whom diabetes outcomes at 5 years were known. Subjects were classified as having MetS based on the presence of at least 3 MetS risk factors in baseline clinical data. The sensitivity and false positive rate for predicting diabetes using MetS was compared to DRS. When the sensitivity was fixed to match MetS, DRS had a significantly lower false positive rate. Similarly, when the false positive rate was fixed to match MetS, DRS had a significantly higher specificity. In further analyses, subjects were classified by presence of 0–2, 3 or 4–5 risk factors with matching proportions of subjects distributed among three DRS groups. Comparison between the two risk stratification schemes, MetS risk factors and DRS, were evaluated using Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI). Comparing risk stratification by DRS to MetS factors in the total population, the NRI was 0.146 (p = 0.008) demonstrating DRS provides significantly improved stratification. Additionally, the relative risk of T2DM differed by 15 fold between the low and high DRS risk groups, but only 8-fold between the low and high risk MetS groups. Conclusions/Significance DRS provides a more accurate assessment of risk for diabetes than MetS. This improved performance may allow clinicians to focus preventive strategies on those most in need of urgent intervention. PMID:21829540

Incorporating Stroke and Bleeding Risk Stratification Tools into Atrial Fibrillation Management Making Sense of the Alphabet Soup.

PubMed

Deering, Thomas F

2017-01-01

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia managed by many physicians in a variety of clinical settings. One of the most important clinical decisions related to effective AF management centers upon the need to perform accurate thromboembolic risk stratification followed by effective management decisions that align with established guidelines. This manuscript will review the present state of the art and provide guidance to physicians to enhance patient outcomes.

Risk Stratification in Arrhythmic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy Without Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillators

PubMed Central

Brun, Francesca; Groeneweg, Judith A.; Gear, Kathleen; Sinagra, Gianfranco; van der Heijden, Jeroen; Mestroni, Luisa; Hauer, Richard N.; Borgstrom, Mark; Marcus, Frank I.; Hughes, Trina

2016-01-01

Objectives The primary objective of this study is risk stratification of patients with arrhythmic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC). Background There is a need to identify those who need an automatic implantable defibrillator (ICD) to prevent sudden death. Methods This is an analysis of 88 patients with ARVC from three centers who were not treated with an ICD. Results Risk factors for subsequent arrhythmic deaths were pre-enrollment sustained or nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (VT) and decreased left ventricular function. Conclusion These factors serve as proposed guidelines for implantation of an ICD in patients with ARVC to prevent sudden death. PMID:27790640

Novel biparametric MRI and targeted biopsy improves risk stratification in men with a clinical suspicion of prostate cancer (IMPROD Trial).

PubMed

Jambor, Ivan; Boström, Peter J; Taimen, Pekka; Syvänen, Kari; Kähkönen, Esa; Kallajoki, Markku; Perez, Ileana Montoya; Kauko, Tommi; Matomäki, Jaakko; Ettala, Otto; Merisaari, Harri; Kiviniemi, Aida; Dean, Peter B; Aronen, Hannu J

2017-10-01

To evaluate the role of a 3T biparametric magnetic resonance imaging (bpMRI), T 2 -weighted imaging, and three separate diffusion-weighted imaging acquisitions combined with targeted biopsy (TB) for improving risk stratification of men with elevated prostate-specific antigen (PSA). Between March 2013 and February 2015, 175 men with a clinical suspicion of prostate cancer (PCa) were offered bpMRI (NCT01864135) based on a suspicion of PCa (two repeated PSA measurements in the range 2.5-20.0 ng/ml and/or abnormal digital rectal examination). Men with an equivocal to high suspicion of PCa had two TBs of the dominant lesion using cognitive ultrasound guidance, followed by systematic biopsy (SB). Men with a low to very low suspicion had only SB. In total, 161 (161/175, 92%) prospectively enrolled men completed the trial and were included in the final analyses. The primary endpoint of the trial was the cancer detection rate (CDR) of TB and SB. Clinically significant cancer (SPCa) was defined as Gleason score ≥3 + 4. TB compared with SB had higher CDR for SPCa (45%, 72/161 vs. 39%, 63/161, respectively; P > 0.05) and a lower CDR for Gleason score 3 + 3 (8%, 15/161 vs. 16%, 30/161; P < 0.05). Restricting biopsy to men with equivocal to highly suspicious bpMRI findings would have resulted in a 24% (38/161) reduction in the number of men undergoing biopsy, while missing 4 (2%) with SPCa. All anonymized datasets, including bpMRI reports and follow up information, are freely available on the trial server. Prebiopsy bpMRI and TB in men with a clinical suspicion of PCa improved risk stratification. 1 Technical Efficacy: Stage 5 J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2017;46:1089-1095. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

Accurate Diabetes Risk Stratification Using Machine Learning: Role of Missing Value and Outliers.

PubMed

Maniruzzaman, Md; Rahman, Md Jahanur; Al-MehediHasan, Md; Suri, Harman S; Abedin, Md Menhazul; El-Baz, Ayman; Suri, Jasjit S

2018-04-10

Diabetes mellitus is a group of metabolic diseases in which blood sugar levels are too high. About 8.8% of the world was diabetic in 2017. It is projected that this will reach nearly 10% by 2045. The major challenge is that when machine learning-based classifiers are applied to such data sets for risk stratification, leads to lower performance. Thus, our objective is to develop an optimized and robust machine learning (ML) system under the assumption that missing values or outliers if replaced by a median configuration will yield higher risk stratification accuracy. This ML-based risk stratification is designed, optimized and evaluated, where: (i) the features are extracted and optimized from the six feature selection techniques (random forest, logistic regression, mutual information, principal component analysis, analysis of variance, and Fisher discriminant ratio) and combined with ten different types of classifiers (linear discriminant analysis, quadratic discriminant analysis, naïve Bayes, Gaussian process classification, support vector machine, artificial neural network, Adaboost, logistic regression, decision tree, and random forest) under the hypothesis that both missing values and outliers when replaced by computed medians will improve the risk stratification accuracy. Pima Indian diabetic dataset (768 patients: 268 diabetic and 500 controls) was used. Our results demonstrate that on replacing the missing values and outliers by group median and median values, respectively and further using the combination of random forest feature selection and random forest classification technique yields an accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and area under the curve as: 92.26%, 95.96%, 79.72%, 91.14%, 91.20%, and 0.93, respectively. This is an improvement of 10% over previously developed techniques published in literature. The system was validated for its stability and reliability. RF-based model showed the best performance when outliers are replaced by median values.

BAYESIAN BICLUSTERING FOR PATIENT STRATIFICATION.

PubMed

Khakabimamaghani, Sahand; Ester, Martin

2016-01-01

The move from Empirical Medicine towards Personalized Medicine has attracted attention to Stratified Medicine (SM). Some methods are provided in the literature for patient stratification, which is the central task of SM, however, there are still significant open issues. First, it is still unclear if integrating different datatypes will help in detecting disease subtypes more accurately, and, if not, which datatype(s) are most useful for this task. Second, it is not clear how we can compare different methods of patient stratification. Third, as most of the proposed stratification methods are deterministic, there is a need for investigating the potential benefits of applying probabilistic methods. To address these issues, we introduce a novel integrative Bayesian biclustering method, called B2PS, for patient stratification and propose methods for evaluating the results. Our experimental results demonstrate the superiority of B2PS over a popular state-of-the-art method and the benefits of Bayesian approaches. Our results agree with the intuition that transcriptomic data forms a better basis for patient stratification than genomic data.

Development of a Bayesian Classifier for Breast Cancer Risk Stratification: A Feasibility Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-29

IV 0 2 10 23 BIRADS V 0 1 2 1 No mammogram 116 94 55 45 Breast biopsy category .4076 Benign, no atypia 19 12 27 34 Premalignant 1 0 2 4 Infiltrating... breast EIS result∗ Estimated outcome, % Known evidence Biopsy category EIS Gail Benign, no Infiltrating cancer Case frequency, % result cutoff‘ atypia or...Development of a Bayesian Classifier for Breast Cancer Risk Stratification: A Feasibility Study Alexander Stojadinovic, MD,a,b Christina Eberhardt,a

Stroke Risk Stratification and its Validation using Ultrasonic Echolucent Carotid Wall Plaque Morphology: A Machine Learning Paradigm.

PubMed

Araki, Tadashi; Jain, Pankaj K; Suri, Harman S; Londhe, Narendra D; Ikeda, Nobutaka; El-Baz, Ayman; Shrivastava, Vimal K; Saba, Luca; Nicolaides, Andrew; Shafique, Shoaib; Laird, John R; Gupta, Ajay; Suri, Jasjit S

2017-01-01

Stroke risk stratification based on grayscale morphology of the ultrasound carotid wall has recently been shown to have a promise in classification of high risk versus low risk plaque or symptomatic versus asymptomatic plaques. In previous studies, this stratification has been mainly based on analysis of the far wall of the carotid artery. Due to the multifocal nature of atherosclerotic disease, the plaque growth is not restricted to the far wall alone. This paper presents a new approach for stroke risk assessment by integrating assessment of both the near and far walls of the carotid artery using grayscale morphology of the plaque. Further, this paper presents a scientific validation system for stroke risk assessment. Both these innovations have never been presented before. The methodology consists of an automated segmentation system of the near wall and far wall regions in grayscale carotid B-mode ultrasound scans. Sixteen grayscale texture features are computed, and fed into the machine learning system. The training system utilizes the lumen diameter to create ground truth labels for the stratification of stroke risk. The cross-validation procedure is adapted in order to obtain the machine learning testing classification accuracy through the use of three sets of partition protocols: (5, 10, and Jack Knife). The mean classification accuracy over all the sets of partition protocols for the automated system in the far and near walls is 95.08% and 93.47%, respectively. The corresponding accuracies for the manual system are 94.06% and 92.02%, respectively. The precision of merit of the automated machine learning system when compared against manual risk assessment system are 98.05% and 97.53% for the far and near walls, respectively. The ROC of the risk assessment system for the far and near walls is close to 1.0 demonstrating high accuracy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association between risk factors and detection of cutaneous melanoma in the setting of a population-based skin cancer screening.

PubMed

Hübner, Joachim; Waldmann, Annika; Eisemann, Nora; Noftz, Maria; Geller, Alan C; Weinstock, Martin A; Volkmer, Beate; Greinert, Rüdiger; Breitbart, Eckhard W; Katalinic, Alexander

2017-07-07

Early detection is considered to improve the prognosis of cutaneous melanoma. The value of population-based screening for melanoma, however, is still controversial. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive power of established risk factors in the setting of a population-based screening and to provide empirical evidence for potential risk stratifications. We reanalyzed data (including age, sex, risk factors, and screening results) of 354 635 participants in the Skin Cancer Research to provide Evidence for Effectiveness of Screening in Northern Germany project conducted in the German state of Schleswig-Holstein (2003-2004). In multivariable analysis, atypical nevi [odds ratio (OR): 17.4; 95% confidence interval (CI): 14.4-20.1], personal history of melanoma (OR: 5.3; 95% CI: 3.6-7.6), and multiple (≥40) common nevi (OR: 1.3; 95% CI: 1.1-1.6) were associated with an increased risk of melanoma detection. Family history and congenital nevi were not significantly associated with melanoma detection in the Skin Cancer Research to provide Evidence for Effectiveness of Screening in Northern Germany population. The effects of several risk-adapted screening strategies were evaluated. Hypothesizing a screening of individuals aged more than or equal to 35 years, irrespective of risk factors (age approach), the number needed to screen is 559 (95% CI: 514-612), whereas a screening of adults (aged ≥20) with at least one risk factor (risk approach) leads to an number needed to screen of 178 (95% CI: 163-196). Converted into one screen-detected melanoma, the number of missed melanomas is 0.15 (95% CI: 0.12-0.18) with the age approach and 0.22 (95% CI: 0.19-0.26) with the risk approach. The results indicate that focusing on individuals at high risk for melanoma may improve the cost-effectiveness and the benefit-to-harm balance of melanoma screening programs.

[Assessment of Heavy/ Light Chain Pairs of Immunoglobulin (Hevylite assay) -  Benefit for Stratification of Multiple Myeloma?].

PubMed

Ščudla, V; Lochaman, P; Pika, T; Zapletalová, J; Minařík, J; Bačovský, J

2015-01-01

The aim of the study was the comparison of two novel stratification models in multiple myeloma (MM), ie. according to Avet- Loiseau (A L) and according to Ludwig (L), based on the HLC r index (ratio of serum levels of involved- HLC/ uninvolved HLC, ie. HLC κ/ HLC  λ assessed using ie. nephelometric/turbidimetric technique using specific polyclonal antibodies on a Binding Site SPA(PLUS)) technique) and β(2) microglobulin (β(2) M) with selected prognostic factors (PF) of MM and staging systems according to Durie- Salmon (D S) and International Staging System (ISS). In a cohort of 132 patients (94 with IgG and 38 with IgA type of MM) at the time of dia-gnosis, we assessed HLC r, select-ed PF and D S, ISS, A L and L stratification systems. Unlike in IgA isotype, in IgG isotype we found a significant relationship of HLC r to stratification according to D S and ISS with the difference between A and B substages according to D S (p = 0.049) and between ISS stages 1 vs. 3 (p = 0.001). In the IgG group, there was highly significant relationship of the depth of Hb and albumin decrease and β(2) M increase to the results of stratification according to ISS, A L and L model (p < 0.0001), increase of LDH in the ISS system and A L, and creatinine according to ISS and L but not the relationship of the stages according to any of the stratification systems to the values of FLC r (ratio of serum free light chains κ/ λ of immunoglobulin), thrombocytes and Ca. In the IgA type, there was a significant relationship of the depth of the decrease of Hb, thrombocytes, albumin and increase of β(2) M to the results of stratification according to ISS, A L and L and increase of creatinine in the case of ISS, but not of the values of FLC r, Ca and LDH in the case of any of the stratification systems. The degree of correlation of selected PF, especially of Hb, albumin and β(2) M, event. of thrombocytes, LDH and creatinine to the stages according to ISS and to stage 1-3 according to A L and L model was in IgG vs IgA isotype significantly different (p < 0.0001- 0.030). Staging system according to ISS had proportional distribution of stages 1- 3, whereas in the A L model prevailed in IgA and IgG isotype risk category 2, ie. intermediate-risk (47.3 and 44.7%) and in the L model prevailed risk category 3, ie. high-risk (41.5 and 52.6%) with low count of category 1, ie. low- risk category (23.4 and 10.5%). McNemar- Bowker test of symmetry showed in both types of MM the highest concordance between the stratification according to D S and L in category 3, ie. high-risk (31.9 vs. 28.9%) with overall accord only in 53.2 and 42.1% and with significant shift in the case of IgG isotype only (p = 0.036). In IgG and IgA isotype there was an overall concordance in the distribution of categories 1- 3 according to ISS vs. A L (62.4 and 63.2%) but with significant shift of the stratification (p = 0.002 and 0.028). In the case of IgG and IgA isotype there was a close relationship between the models A L and L (64.5 and 81.6%) with significant stratification shift (p < 0.0001 and 0.030). The new stratification models for MM according to A L and L are easily practically applicable, with close relationship to principal PF but they need separate assessment of IgG and IgA isotypes of MM. The choice of optimal model for routine practice needs a validation study aimed at progression free survival and overall survival.

Application of FISH 7q in MDS patients without monosomy 7 or 7q deletion by conventional G-banding cytogenetics: does -7/7q- detection by FISH have prognostic value?

PubMed

Ademà, Vera; Hernández, Jesús María; Abáigar, María; Lumbreras, Eva; Such, Esperanza; Calull, Anna; Dominguez, Esther; Arenillas, Leonor; Mallo, Mar; Cervera, José; Marugán, Isabel; Tormo, Mar; García, Francisca; González, Teresa; Luño, Elisa; Sanzo, Carmen; Martín, María Luisa; Fernández, Manuela; Costa, Dolors; Blázquez, Beatriz; Barreña, Beatriz; Marco, Fernando; Batlle, Ana; Buño, Ismael; Martínez-Laperche, Carolina; Noriega, Víctor; Collado, Rosa; Ivars, David; Carbonell, Félix; Vallcorba, Isabel; Melero, Josefa; Delgado, Elena; Vargas, María Teresa; Grau, Javier; Salido, Marta; Espinet, Blanca; Melero, Carme; Florensa, Lourdes; Pedro, Carmen; Solé, Francesc

2013-04-01

Chromosomal abnormalities are detected in 40-60% of patients with de novo myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). This study used the FISH technique in 773 patients with de novo MDS without evidence of monosomy 7 (-7) or 7q deletion (7q-) by conventional G-banding cytogenetics (CC) to analyze their prognostic impact by FISH alone. FISH detected -7/7q- in 5.2% of patients. Presence of -7/7q- was associated with shorter overall survival than absence of such aberrations. Our results suggest that FISH 7q could be beneficial in patients with intermediate WHO morphologic risk stratification and no evidence of -7/7q- by CC. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk score predicts high-grade prostate cancer in DNA-methylation positive, histopathologically negative biopsies.

PubMed

Van Neste, Leander; Partin, Alan W; Stewart, Grant D; Epstein, Jonathan I; Harrison, David J; Van Criekinge, Wim

2016-09-01

Prostate cancer (PCa) diagnosis is challenging because efforts for effective, timely treatment of men with significant cancer typically result in over-diagnosis and repeat biopsies. The presence or absence of epigenetic aberrations, more specifically DNA-methylation of GSTP1, RASSF1, and APC in histopathologically negative prostate core biopsies has resulted in an increased negative predictive value (NPV) of ∼90% and thus could lead to a reduction of unnecessary repeat biopsies. Here, it is investigated whether, in methylation-positive men, DNA-methylation intensities could help to identify those men harboring high-grade (Gleason score ≥7) PCa, resulting in an improved positive predictive value. Two cohorts, consisting of men with histopathologically negative index biopsies, followed by a positive or negative repeat biopsy, were combined. EpiScore, a methylation intensity algorithm was developed in methylation-positive men, using area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic as metric for performance. Next, a risk score was developed combining EpiScore with traditional clinical risk factors to further improve the identification of high-grade (Gleason Score ≥7) cancer. Compared to other risk factors, detection of DNA-methylation in histopathologically negative biopsies was the most significant and important predictor of high-grade cancer, resulting in a NPV of 96%. In methylation-positive men, EpiScore was significantly higher for those with high-grade cancer detected upon repeat biopsy, compared to those with either no or low-grade cancer. The risk score resulted in further improvement of patient risk stratification and was a significantly better predictor compared to currently used metrics as PSA and the prostate cancer prevention trial (PCPT) risk calculator (RC). A decision curve analysis indicated strong clinical utility for the risk score as decision-making tool for repeat biopsy. Low DNA-methylation levels in PCa-negative biopsies led to a NPV of 96% for high-grade cancer. The risk score, comprising DNA-methylation intensity and traditional clinical risk factors, improved the identification of men with high-grade cancer, with a maximum avoidance of unnecessary repeat biopsies. This risk score resulted in better patient risk stratification and significantly outperformed current risk prediction models such as PCPTRC and PSA. The risk score could help to identify patients with histopathologically negative biopsies harboring high-grade PCa. Prostate 76:1078-1087, 2016. © 2016 The Authors. The Prostate Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 The Authors. The Prostate Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prognostic factors and risk stratification in patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer receiving docetaxel-based chemotherapy.

PubMed

Yamashita, Shimpei; Kohjimoto, Yasuo; Iguchi, Takashi; Koike, Hiroyuki; Kusumoto, Hiroki; Iba, Akinori; Kikkawa, Kazuro; Kodama, Yoshiki; Matsumura, Nagahide; Hara, Isao

2016-03-22

While novel drugs have been developed, docetaxel remains one of the standard initial systemic therapies for castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) patients. Despite the excellent anti-tumor effect of docetaxel, its severe adverse effects sometimes distress patients. Therefore, it would be very helpful to predict the efficacy of docetaxel before treatment. The aims of this study were to evaluate the potential value of patient characteristics in predicting overall survival (OS) and to develop a risk classification for CRPC patients treated with docetaxel-based chemotherapy. This study included 79 patients with CRPC treated with docetaxel. The variables, including patient characteristics at diagnosis and at the start of chemotherapy, were retrospectively collected. Prognostic factors predicting OS were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazard model. Risk stratification for overall survival was determined based on the results of multivariate analysis. PSA response ≥50 % was observed in 55 (69.6 %) of all patients, and the median OS was 22.5 months. The multivariate analysis showed that age, serum PSA level at the start of chemotherapy, and Hb were independent prognostic factors for OS. In addition, ECOG performance status (PS) and the CRP-to-albumin ratio were not significant but were considered possible predictors for OS. Risk stratification according to the number of these risk factors could effectively stratify CRPC patients treated with docetaxel in terms of OS. Age, serum PSA level at the start of chemotherapy, and Hb were identified as independent prognostic factors of OS. ECOG PS and the CRP-to-albumin ratio were not significant, but were considered possible predictors for OS in Japanese CRPC patients treated with docetaxel. Risk stratification based on these factors could be helpful for estimating overall survival.

Differentiated thyroid cancer in children: Heterogeneity of predictive risk factors.

PubMed

Russo, Marco; Malandrino, Pasqualino; Moleti, Mariacarla; Vermiglio, Francesco; D'Angelo, Antonio; La Rosa, Giuliana; Sapuppo, Giulia; Calaciura, Francesca; Regalbuto, Concetto; Belfiore, Antonino; Vigneri, Riccardo; Pellegriti, Gabriella

2018-05-16

To correlate clinical and pathological characteristics at diagnosis with patient long-term outcomes and to evaluate ongoing risk stratifications in a large series of paediatric differentiated thyroid cancers (DTC). Retrospective analysis of clinical and pathological prognostic factors of 124 paediatric patients with DTC (age at diagnosis <19 years) followed up for 10.4 ± 8.4 years. Patients with a follow-up >3 years (n = 104) were re-classified 18 months after surgery on the basis of their response to therapy (ongoing risk stratification). Most patients had a papillary histotype (96.0%), were older than 15 years (75.0%) and were diagnosed because of clinical local symptoms (63.7%). Persistent/recurrent disease was present in 31.5% of cases during follow-up, but at the last evaluation, only 12.9% had biochemical or structural disease. The presence of metastases in the lymph nodes of the lateral compartment (OR 3.2, 95% CI, 1.28-7.16, P = 0.01) was the only independent factor associated with recurrent/persistent disease during follow-up. At the last evaluation, biochemical/structural disease was associated with node metastases (N1a, N1b) by univariate but not multivariate analysis. Ongoing risk stratification compared to the initial risk classification method better identified patients with a lower probability of persistent/recurrent disease (NPV = 100%). In spite of the aggressive presentations at diagnosis, paediatric patients with DTC show an excellent response to treatment and often a favourable outcome. N1b status should be considered a strong predictor of persistent/recurrent disease which, as in adults, is better predicted by ongoing risk stratification. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Risk stratification using lean body mass in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement.

PubMed

Hioki, Hirofumi; Watanabe, Yusuke; Kozuma, Ken; Yamamoto, Masanori; Naganuma, Toru; Araki, Motoharu; Tada, Norio; Shirai, Shinichi; Yamanaka, Futoshi; Higashimori, Akihiro; Mizutani, Kazuki; Tabata, Minoru; Takagi, Kensuke; Ueno, Hiroshi; Hayashida, Kentaro

2018-02-22

The prognostic impact of skeletal muscle mass, assessed using lean body mass (LBM), remain unclear in patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). The aim of this study to assess prognostic impact of LBM on mortality after TAVR. We assessed 1,613 patients (median age 85 years, 70% female) who underwent TAVI from October 2013 to April 2016 using OCEAN (Optimized transCathEter vAlvular interveNtion)-TAVI registry data. LBM was calculated using the James formula. The primary endpoint was all-cause death after TAVR. Median follow-up period was 287 days (interquartile range 110-462). The Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that patients with low LBM had significantly higher incidence of all-cause death than those with high LBM in male (32.3% vs. 9.9%, log rank P < 0.001) and female (15.8% vs. 9.2%, log-rank P = 0.011). On contrary, the risk stratification using body mass index (BMI) could not validate into female patients who underwent TAVR. The multivariate analysis showed that the LBM was an independent predictor of all-cause death in male (Hazard ratio [HR] 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.89-0.98) and female (HR 0.94; 95% CI 0.89-0.99). Inversely, the assessment using BMI could not identify the high-risk population in a female. The patients with low LBM had the higher incidence of all-cause death after TAVR than those with high LBM, regardless of gender. Thus, the risk stratification using LBM might provide further insight to identify the high-risk TAVR population, compared to conventional risk stratification using BMI. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Electrophysiologic profile and results of invasive risk stratification in asymptomatic children and adolescents with the Wolff-Parkinson-White electrocardiographic pattern.

PubMed

Kubuš, Peter; Vít, Pavel; Gebauer, Roman A; Materna, Ondřej; Janoušek, Jan

2014-04-01

Data on the results and clinical effect of an invasive risk stratification strategy in asymptomatic young patients with the Wolff-Parkinson-White electrocardiographic pattern are scarce. Eighty-five consecutive patients aged<18 years with a Wolff-Parkinson-White pattern and persistent preexcitation at maximum exercise undergoing invasive risk stratification were retrospectively studied. Adverse accessory pathway (AP) properties were defined according to currently consented criteria as any of the following: shortest preexcited RR interval during atrial fibrillation/rapid atrial pacing≤250 ms (or antegrade effective refractory period≤250 ms if shortest preexcited RR interval was not available) or inducible atrioventricular re-entrant tachycardia. Age at evaluation was median 14.9 years. Eighty-two patients had a structurally normal heart and 3 had hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. A single manifest AP was present in 80, 1 manifest and 1 concealed AP in 4, and 2 manifest APs in 1 patient. Adverse AP properties were present in 32 of 85 patients (37.6%) at baseline and in additional 16 of 44 (36.4%) after isoproterenol. Ablation was performed in 41 of these 48 patients. Ablation was deferred in the remaining 7 for pathway proximity to the atrioventricular node. In addition, 18 of the low-risk patients were ablated based on patient/parental decision. Adverse AP properties at baseline were exhibited by 37.6% of the evaluated patients with an asymptomatic Wolff-Parkinson-White preexcitation persisting at peak exercise. Isoproterenol challenge yielded additional 36.4% of those tested at higher risk. Ablation was performed in a total of 69.4% of patients subjected to invasive risk stratification.

Performance of stroke risk scores in older people with atrial fibrillation not taking warfarin: comparative cohort study from BAFTA trial.

PubMed

Hobbs, F D R; Roalfe, A K; Lip, G Y H; Fletcher, K; Fitzmaurice, D A; Mant, J

2011-06-23

To compare the predictive power of the main existing and recently proposed schemes for stratification of risk of stroke in older patients with atrial fibrillation. Comparative cohort study of eight risk stratification scores. Trial of thromboprophylaxis in stroke, the Birmingham Atrial Fibrillation in the Aged (BAFTA) trial. 665 patients aged 75 or over with atrial fibrillation based in the community who were randomised to the BAFTA trial and were not taking warfarin throughout or for part of the study period. Events rates of stroke and thromboembolism. 54 (8%) patients had an ischaemic stroke, four (0.6%) had a systemic embolism, and 13 (2%) had a transient ischaemic attack. The distribution of patients classified into the three risk categories (low, moderate, high) was similar across three of the risk stratification scores (revised CHADS(2), NICE, ACC/AHA/ESC), with most patients categorised as high risk (65-69%, n = 460-457) and the remaining classified as moderate risk. The original CHADS(2) (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥ 75 years, Diabetes, previous Stroke) score identified the lowest number as high risk (27%, n = 180). The incremental risk scores of CHADS(2), Rietbrock modified CHADS(2), and CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc (CHA(2)DS(2)-Vascular disease, Age 65-74 years, Sex) failed to show an increase in risk at the upper range of scores. The predictive accuracy was similar across the tested schemes with C statistic ranging from 0.55 (original CHADS(2)) to 0.62 (Rietbrock modified CHADS(2)), with all except the original CHADS(2) predicting better than chance. Bootstrapped paired comparisons provided no evidence of significant differences between the discriminatory ability of the schemes. Based on this single trial population, current risk stratification schemes in older people with atrial fibrillation have only limited ability to predict the risk of stroke. Given the systematic undertreatment of older people with anticoagulation, and the relative safety of warfarin versus aspirin in those aged over 70, there could be a pragmatic rationale for classifying all patients over 75 as "high risk" until better tools are available.

Risk stratification by the Appendicitis Inflammatory Response score to guide decision-making in patients with suspected appendicitis.

PubMed

Scott, A J; Mason, S E; Arunakirinathan, M; Reissis, Y; Kinross, J M; Smith, J J

2015-04-01

Current management of suspected appendicitis is hampered by the overadmission of patients with non-specific abdominal pain and a significant negative exploration rate. The potential benefits of risk stratification by the Appendicitis Inflammatory Response (AIR) score to guide clinical decision-making were assessed. During this 50-week prospective observational study at one institution, the AIR score was calculated for all patients admitted with suspected appendicitis. Appendicitis was diagnosed by histological examination, and patients were classified as having non-appendicitis pain if histological findings were negative or surgery was not performed. The diagnostic performance of the AIR score and the potential for risk stratification to reduce admissions, optimize imaging and prevent unnecessary explorations were quantified. A total of 464 patients were included, of whom 210 (63·3 per cent) with non-appendicitis pain were correctly classified as low risk. However, 13 low-risk patients had appendicitis. Low-risk patients accounted for 48·1 per cent of admissions (223 of 464), 57 per cent of negative explorations (48 of 84) and 50·7 per cent of imaging requests (149 of 294). An AIR score of 5 or more (intermediate and high risk) had high sensitivity for all severities of appendicitis (90 per cent) and also for advanced appendicitis (98 per cent). An AIR score of 9 or more (high risk) was very specific (97 per cent) for appendicitis, and the majority of patients with appendicitis in the high-risk group (21 of 30, 70 per cent) had perforation or gangrene. Ultrasound imaging could not exclude appendicitis in low-risk patients (negative likelihood ratio (LR) 1·0) but could rule-in the diagnosis in intermediate-risk patients (positive LR 10·2). CT could exclude appendicitis in low-risk patients (negative LR 0·0) and rule-in appendicitis in the intermediate group (positive LR 10·9). Risk stratification of patients with suspected appendicitis by the AIR score could guide decision-making to reduce admissions, optimize utility of diagnostic imaging and prevent negative explorations. © 2015 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Safety of the Wearable Cardioverter Defibrillator (WCD) in Patients with Implanted Pacemakers.

PubMed

Schmitt, Joern; Abaci, Guezine; Johnson, Victoria; Erkapic, Damir; Gemein, Christopher; Chasan, Ritvan; Weipert, Kay; Hamm, Christian W; Klein, Helmut U

2017-03-01

The wearable cardioverter defibrillator (WCD) is an important approach for better risk stratification, applied to patients considered to be at high risk of sudden arrhythmic death. Patients with implanted pacemakers may also become candidates for use of the WCD. However, there is a potential risk that pacemaker signals may mislead the WCD detection algorithm and cause inappropriate WCD shock delivery. The aim of the study was to test the impact of different types of pacing, various right ventricular (RV) lead positions, and pacing modes for potential misleading of the WCD detection algorithm. Sixty patients with implanted pacemakers received the WCD for a short time and each pacing mode (AAI, VVI, and DDD) was tested for at least 30 seconds in unipolar and bipolar pacing configuration. In case of triggering the WCD detection algorithm and starting the sequence of arrhythmia alarms, shock delivery was prevented by pushing of the response buttons. In six of 60 patients (10%), continuous unipolar pacing in DDD mode triggered the WCD detection algorithm. In no patient, triggering occurred with bipolar DDD pacing, unipolar and bipolar AAI, and VVI pacing. Triggering was independent of pacing amplitude, RV pacing lead position, and pulse generator implantation site. Unipolar DDD pacing bears a high risk of false triggering of the WCD detection algorithm. Other types of unipolar pacing and all bipolar pacing modes do not seem to mislead the WCD detection algorithm. Therefore, patients with no reprogrammable unipolar DDD pacing should not become candidates for the WCD. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Progress towards personalized therapeutics: biologic- and risk-directed therapy for neuroblastoma.

PubMed

Gustafson, William Clay; Matthay, Katherine K

2011-10-01

Neuroblastoma, a tumor of the developing peripheral sympathetic nervous system, is the most common and deadly extracranial solid tumor of childhood. Risk-stratification and risk-adapted therapy play a large role in the modern treatment of neuroblastoma. Recently, through extensive international collaboration, new guidelines for risk stratification have emerged that will aid in international cooperative studies, as well as clarifying therapeutic options for patients. Current therapies for low- and intermediate-risk neuroblastoma have resulted in excellent prognoses for these risk strata, and current efforts are concentrated on chemotherapy reduction. By contrast, much more gradual progress has been made in improving survival for high-risk neuroblastoma patients, despite significant chemotherapy intensification. Current investigations focus on overcoming resistance by elucidating the molecular/genetic causes of neuroblastoma tumorigenesis and progression, with the aim of developing more effective biologically targeted therapies for this disease.

Impact of self-reported fasting duration on lipid profile variability, cardiovascular risk stratification and metabolic syndrome diagnosis.

PubMed

Janovsky, Carolina Castro Porto Silva; Laurinavicius, Antonio; Cesena, Fernando; Valente, Viviane; Ferreira, Carlos Eduardo; Mangueira, Cristovão; Conceição, Raquel; Santos, Raul D; Bittencourt, Marcio Sommer

2018-01-01

We sought to investigate the impact of self-reported fasting duration times on the lipid profile results and its impact on the cardiovascular risk stratification and metabolic syndrome diagnosis. We analyzed data from all consecutive individuals evaluated in a comprehensive health examination at the Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein from January to December 2015. We divided these patients in three groups, according to the fasting duration recalled (< 8h, 8-12h and > 12h). We calculated the global cardiovascular risk and diagnosed metabolic syndrome according to the current criteria and estimated their change according to fasting duration. A total of 12,196 (42.3 ± 9.2 years-old, 30.2% females) patients were evaluated. The distribution of cardiovascular risk was not different among groups defined by fasting duration in both men and women (p = 0.547 for women and p = 0.329 for men). Similarly, the prevalence of metabolic syndrome was not influenced by the fasting duration (p = 0.431 for women and p = 0.166 for men). Self-reported fasting duration had no significant impact on the lipid profile results, including triglyceride levels. Consequently, no changes on the cardiovascular risk stratification using the Framingham risk score nor changes on the prevalence of metabolic syndrome were noted.

Seed dormancy and germination vary within and among species of milkweeds

PubMed Central

Kaye, Thomas N; Sandlin, Isaac J; Bahm, Matt A

2018-01-01

Abstract Pollinators in general and monarch butterflies in particular are in decline due to habitat loss. Efforts to restore habitats for insects that rely on specific plant groups as larvae or adults depend on the ability of practitioners to grow and produce these plants. Monarch larvae feed exclusively on milkweed species, primarily in the genus Asclepias, making propagation and restoration of these plants crucial for habitat restoration. Seed germination protocols for milkweeds are not well established, in part due to the large number of milkweed species and conflicting reports of seed dormancy in the genus. We tested for seed dormancy and the optimum period of cold stratification in 15 populations of A. speciosa and 1–2 populations of five additional species, including A. asperula, A. fascicularis, A. subulata, A. subverticillata and A. syriaca. We exposed seeds to cold (5 °C) moist conditions for 0, 2, 4, 6 and 8 weeks and then moved them to 15 °C/25 °C alternating temperatures. In A. speciosa, dormancy was detected in eight populations, and this dormancy was broken by 2–4 weeks of cold stratification. The remaining seven populations showed no dormancy. Seed dormancy was also detected in two populations of A. fascicularis (broken by 4–6 weeks of cold stratification) and a single population of A. syriaca (broken by 2 weeks of cold stratification). No dormancy was detected in A. asperula, A. subulata or A. subverticillata. Seed dormancy appears to be widespread in the genus (confirmed in 15 species) but can vary between populations even within the same species. Variation in seed dormancy and cold stratification requirements within and among Asclepias species suggests local adaptation and maternal environments may drive seedling ecology, and that growers should watch for low germination and use cold stratification as needed to maximize seed germination and retain genetic variability in restored populations. PMID:29593856

Risk-stratification, resource availability, and choice of surgical location for the management of parturients with abnormal placentation: a survey of United States-based obstetric anesthesiologists.

PubMed

Grant, T R; Ellinas, E H; Kula, A O; Muravyeva, M Y

2018-05-01

Parturients with abnormally adherent placentas present anesthetic challenges that include risk-stratification, management planning and resource utilization. The labor and delivery unit may be remote from the main operating room services. Division chiefs of North American obstetric anesthesiology services were surveyed about their practices and management of parturients with an abnormally adherent placenta. Eighty-four of 122 chiefs, representing 103 hospital sites, responded to the survey (response rate 69%). Sixty-one percent of respondents agreed that women with preoperative placental imaging that was "suspicious" of placenta accreta represented a lower risk category; all other suggested descriptions fell into a higher risk category. Seventy-nine percent of respondents indicated that lower risk cases were managed on the labor and delivery unit, while 71% indicated that higher risk cases would be managed in the main operating room. Institutions where all cases were managed on the labor and delivery unit had better access to human and technical resources, were less remote from their main operating areas, and promoted neuraxial rather than general anesthesia, even for parturients perceived to be at higher risk. Obstetric anesthesia leaders identified patients at lower clinical risk and those less likely to require greater resources. Additional resources were available in institutions where all abnormal placentation cases were managed on the labor and delivery unit. Practitioners should consider risk-stratification and resource availability when planning high-risk cases. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association between gastric cancer and the Kyoto classification of gastritis.

PubMed

Shichijo, Satoki; Hirata, Yoshihiro; Niikura, Ryota; Hayakawa, Yoku; Yamada, Atsuo; Koike, Kazuhiko

2017-09-01

Histological gastritis is associated with gastric cancer, but its diagnosis requires biopsy. Many classifications of endoscopic gastritis are available, but not all are useful for risk stratification of gastric cancer. The Kyoto Classification of Gastritis was proposed at the 85th Congress of the Japan Gastroenterological Endoscopy Society. This cross-sectional study evaluated the usefulness of the Kyoto Classification of Gastritis for risk stratification of gastric cancer. From August 2013 to September 2014, esophagogastroduodenoscopy was performed and the gastric findings evaluated according to the Kyoto Classification of Gastritis in a total of 4062 patients. The following five endoscopic findings were selected based on previous reports: atrophy, intestinal metaplasia, enlarged folds, nodularity, and diffuse redness. A total of 3392 patients (1746 [51%] men and 1646 [49%] women) were analyzed. Among them, 107 gastric cancers were diagnosed. Atrophy was found in 2585 (78%) and intestinal metaplasia in 924 (27%). Enlarged folds, nodularity, and diffuse redness were found in 197 (5.8%), 22 (0.6%), and 573 (17%), respectively. In univariate analyses, the severity of atrophy, intestinal metaplasia, diffuse redness, age, and male sex were associated with gastric cancer. In a multivariate analysis, atrophy and male sex were found to be independent risk factors. Younger age and severe atrophy were determined to be associated with diffuse-type gastric cancer. Endoscopic detection of atrophy was associated with the risk of gastric cancer. Thus, patients with severe atrophy should be examined carefully and may require intensive follow-up. © 2017 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Abundance stratification in the atmospheres of blue horizontal-branch stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LeBlanc, F.

2013-12-01

Horizontal-branch stars with effective temperatures larger than approximately 11 500 K show abundance anomalies as well as other peculiar observational properties believed to be due to atomic diffusion in their atmosphere. These stars possess low rotational velocities that makes it possible for atomic diffusion to come into play and are therefore of great interest with respect to diffusion theory. Observational anomalies of blue horizontal-branch stars found in globular clusters such as photometric jumps and gaps are reviewed. Recent detections of vertical stratification of elements are also discussed. These results are compared to predictions of atmospheric modeling while including vertical stratification of the elements. The atmospheric structure of these models is calculated self-consistently while taking into account vertical stratification of the elements.

68Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT: a promising new technique for predicting risk stratification and metastatic risk of prostate cancer patients.

PubMed

Liu, Chen; Liu, Teli; Zhang, Ning; Liu, Yiqiang; Li, Nan; Du, Peng; Yang, Yong; Liu, Ming; Gong, Kan; Yang, Xing; Zhu, Hua; Yan, Kun; Yang, Zhi

2018-05-02

The purpose of this study was to investigate the performance of 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT in predicting risk stratification and metastatic risk of prostate cancer. Fifty newly diagnosed patients with prostate cancer as confirmed by needle biopsy were continuously included, 40 in a train set and ten in a test set. 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT and clinical data of all patients were retrospectively analyzed. Semi-quantitative analysis of PET images provided maximum standardized uptake (SUVmax) of primary prostate cancer and volumetric parameters including intraprostatic PSMA-derived tumor volume (iPSMA-TV) and intraprostatic total lesion PSMA (iTL-PSMA). According to prostate cancer risk stratification criteria of the NCCN Guideline, all patients were simplified into a low-intermediate risk group or a high-risk group. The semi-quantitative parameters of 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT were used to establish a univariate logistic regression model for high-risk prostate cancer and its metastatic risk, and to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of the predictive model. In the train set, 30/40 (75%) patients had high-risk prostate cancer and 10/40 (25%) patients had low-to-moderate-risk prostate cancer; in the test set, 8/10 (80%) patients had high-risk prostate cancer while 2/10 (20%) had low-intermediate risk prostate cancer. The univariate logistic regression model established with SUVmax, iPSMA-TV and iTL-PSMA could all effectively predict high-risk prostate cancer; the AUC of ROC were 0.843, 0.802 and 0.900, respectively. Based on the test set, the sensitivity and specificity of each model were 87.5% and 50% for SUVmax, 62.5% and 100% for iPSMA-TV, and 87.5% and 100% for iTL-PSMA, respectively. The iPSMA-TV and iTL-PSMA-based predictive model could predict the metastatic risk of prostate cancer, the AUC of ROC was 0.863 and 0.848, respectively, but the SUVmax-based prediction model could not predict metastatic risk. Semi-quantitative analysis indexes of 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT imaging can be used as "imaging biomarkers" to predict risk stratification and metastatic risk of prostate cancer.

A risk score including microdeletions improves relapse prediction for standard and medium risk precursor B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in children.

PubMed

Sutton, Rosemary; Venn, Nicola C; Law, Tamara; Boer, Judith M; Trahair, Toby N; Ng, Anthea; Den Boer, Monique L; Dissanayake, Anuruddhika; Giles, Jodie E; Dalzell, Pauline; Mayoh, Chelsea; Barbaric, Draga; Revesz, Tamas; Alvaro, Frank; Pieters, Rob; Haber, Michelle; Norris, Murray D; Schrappe, Martin; Dalla Pozza, Luciano; Marshall, Glenn M

2018-02-01

To prevent relapse, high risk paediatric acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) is treated very intensively. However, most patients who eventually relapse have standard or medium risk ALL with low minimal residual disease (MRD) levels. We analysed recurrent microdeletions and other clinical prognostic factors in a cohort of 475 uniformly treated non-high risk precursor B-cell ALL patients with the aim of better predicting relapse and refining risk stratification. Lower relapse-free survival at 7 years (RFS) was associated with IKZF1 intragenic deletions (P < 0·0001); P2RY8-CRLF2 gene fusion (P < 0·0004); Day 33 MRD>5 × 10 -5 (P < 0·0001) and High National Cancer Institute (NCI) risk (P < 0·0001). We created a predictive model based on a risk score (RS) for deletions, MRD and NCI risk, extending from an RS of 0 (RS0) for patients with no unfavourable factors to RS2 +  for patients with 2 or 3 high risk factors. RS0, RS1, and RS2 +  groups had RFS of 93%, 78% and 49%, respectively, and overall survival (OS) of 99%, 91% and 71%. The RS provided greater discrimination than MRD-based risk stratification into standard (89% RFS, 96% OS) and medium risk groups (79% RFS, 91% OS). We conclude that this RS may enable better early therapeutic stratification and thus improve cure rates for childhood ALL. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Overview and recent advances in the treatment of neuroblastoma.

PubMed

Whittle, Sarah B; Smith, Valeria; Doherty, Erin; Zhao, Sibo; McCarty, Scott; Zage, Peter E

2017-04-01

Children with neuroblastoma have widely divergent outcomes, ranging from cure in >90% of patients with low risk disease to <50% for those with high risk disease. Recent research has shed light on the biology of neuroblastoma, allowing for more accurate risk stratification and treatment reduction in many cases, although newer treatment strategies for children with high-risk and relapsed neuroblastoma are needed to improve outcomes. Areas covered: Neuroblastoma epidemiology, diagnosis, risk stratification, and recent advances in treatment of both newly diagnosed and relapsed neuroblastoma. Expert commentary: The identification of newer tumor targets and of novel cell-mediated immunotherapy agents may lead to novel therapeutic approaches, and clinical trials for regimens designed to target individual genetic aberrations in tumors are underway. A combination of therapeutic modalities will likely be required to improve survival and cure rates for patients with high-risk neuroblastoma.

Simplex and Multiplex Stratification in ASD and ADHD Families: A Promising Approach for Identifying Overlapping and Unique Underpinnings of ASD and ADHD?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oerlemans, Anoek M.; Hartman, Catharina A.; De Bruijn, Yvette G. E.; Van Steijn, Daphne J.; Franke, Barbara; Buitelaar, Jan K.; Rommelse, Nanda N. J.

2015-01-01

Autism spectrum disorders (ASD) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are highly heterogeneous neuropsychiatric disorders, that frequently co-occur. This study examined whether stratification into single-incidence (SPX) and multi-incidence (MPX) is helpful in (a) parsing heterogeneity and (b) detecting overlapping and unique…

Prodromal Parkinsonism and Neurodegenerative Risk Stratification in REM Sleep Behavior Disorder

PubMed Central

Lawton, Michael; Rolinski, Michal; Evetts, Samuel; Baig, Fahd; Ruffmann, Claudio; Gornall, Aimie; Klein, Johannes C; Lo, Christine; Dennis, Gary; Bandmann, Oliver; Quinnell, Timothy; Zaiwalla, Zenobia; Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Hu, Michele TM

2017-01-01

Abstract Objectives Rapid eye movement (REM) sleep behavior disorder (RBD) is the most specific marker of prodromal alpha-synucleinopathies. We sought to delineate the baseline clinical characteristics of RBD and evaluate risk stratification models. Methods Clinical assessments were performed in 171 RBD, 296 control, and 119 untreated Parkinson’s (PD) participants. Putative risk measures were assessed as predictors of prodromal neurodegeneration, and Movement Disorders Society (MDS) criteria for prodromal PD were applied. Participants were screened for common leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2)/glucocerebrosidase gene (GBA) gene mutations. Results Compared to controls, participants with RBD had higher rates of solvent exposure, head injury, smoking, obesity, and antidepressant use. GBA mutations were more common in RBD, but no LRRK2 mutations were found. RBD participants performed significantly worse than controls on Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS)-III, timed “get-up-and-go”, Flamingo test, Sniffin Sticks, and cognitive tests and had worse measures of constipation, quality of life (QOL), and orthostatic hypotension. For all these measures except UPDRS-III, RBD and PD participants were equally impaired. Depression, anxiety, and apathy were worse in RBD compared to PD participants. Stratification of people with RBD according to antidepressant use, obesity, and age altered the odds ratio (OR) of hyposmia compared to controls from 3.4 to 45.5. 74% (95% confidence interval [CI] 66%, 80%) of RBD participants met the MDS criteria for probable prodromal Parkinson’s compared to 0.3% (95% CI 0.009%, 2%) of controls. Conclusions RBD are impaired across a range of clinical measures consistent with prodromal PD and suggestive of a more severe nonmotor subtype. Clinical risk stratification has the potential to select higher risk patients for neuroprotective interventions. PMID:28472425

Evaluation of prognostic models developed using standardised image features from different PET automated segmentation methods.

PubMed

Parkinson, Craig; Foley, Kieran; Whybra, Philip; Hills, Robert; Roberts, Ashley; Marshall, Chris; Staffurth, John; Spezi, Emiliano

2018-04-11

Prognosis in oesophageal cancer (OC) is poor. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate is approximately 15%. Personalised medicine is hoped to increase the 5- and 10-year OS rates. Quantitative analysis of PET is gaining substantial interest in prognostic research but requires the accurate definition of the metabolic tumour volume. This study compares prognostic models developed in the same patient cohort using individual PET segmentation algorithms and assesses the impact on patient risk stratification. Consecutive patients (n = 427) with biopsy-proven OC were included in final analysis. All patients were staged with PET/CT between September 2010 and July 2016. Nine automatic PET segmentation methods were studied. All tumour contours were subjectively analysed for accuracy, and segmentation methods with < 90% accuracy were excluded. Standardised image features were calculated, and a series of prognostic models were developed using identical clinical data. The proportion of patients changing risk classification group were calculated. Out of nine PET segmentation methods studied, clustering means (KM2), general clustering means (GCM3), adaptive thresholding (AT) and watershed thresholding (WT) methods were included for analysis. Known clinical prognostic factors (age, treatment and staging) were significant in all of the developed prognostic models. AT and KM2 segmentation methods developed identical prognostic models. Patient risk stratification was dependent on the segmentation method used to develop the prognostic model with up to 73 patients (17.1%) changing risk stratification group. Prognostic models incorporating quantitative image features are dependent on the method used to delineate the primary tumour. This has a subsequent effect on risk stratification, with patients changing groups depending on the image segmentation method used.

The evolving field of prognostication and risk stratification in MDS: Recent developments and future directions.

PubMed

Lee, Eun-Ju; Podoltsev, Nikolai; Gore, Steven D; Zeidan, Amer M

2016-01-01

The clinical course of patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) is characterized by wide variability reflecting the underlying genetic and biological heterogeneity of the disease. Accurate prediction of outcomes for individual patients is an integral part of the evidence-based risk/benefit calculations that are necessary for tailoring the aggressiveness of therapeutic interventions. While several prognostication tools have been developed and validated for risk stratification, each of these systems has limitations. The recent progress in genomic sequencing techniques has led to discoveries of recurrent molecular mutations in MDS patients with independent impact on relevant clinical outcomes. Reliable assays of these mutations have already entered the clinic and efforts are currently ongoing to formally incorporate mutational analysis into the existing clinicopathologic risk stratification tools. Additionally, mutational analysis holds promise for going beyond prognostication to therapeutic selection and individualized treatment-specific prediction of outcomes; abilities that would revolutionize MDS patient care. Despite these exciting developments, the best way of incorporating molecular testing for use in prognostication and prediction of outcomes in clinical practice remains undefined and further research is warranted. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

PubMed Central

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-01-01

Objectives Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. Settings The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Participants Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. Primary and secondary outcome measures We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. Results There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. Conclusions The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches. Applicability and impact of the proposals for enhanced clinical risk assessment require prospective evaluation. PMID:27084274

Application of a prediction model for work-related sensitisation in bakery workers.

PubMed

Meijer, E; Suarthana, E; Rooijackers, J; Grobbee, D E; Jacobs, J H; Meijster, T; de Monchy, J G R; van Otterloo, E; van Rooy, F G B G J; Spithoven, J J G; Zaat, V A C; Heederik, D J J

2010-10-01

Identification of work-related allergy, particularly work-related asthma, in a (nationwide) medical surveillance programme among bakery workers requires an effective and efficient strategy. Bakers at high risk of having work-related allergy were indentified by use of a questionnaire-based prediction model for work-related sensitisation. The questionnaire was applied among 5,325 participating bakers. Sequential diagnostic investigations were performed only in those with an elevated risk. Performance of the model was evaluated in 674 randomly selected bakers who participated in the medical surveillance programme and the validation study. Clinical investigations were evaluated in the first 73 bakers referred at high risk. Overall 90% of bakers at risk of having asthma could be identified. Individuals at low risk showed 0.3-3.8% work-related respiratory symptoms, medication use or absenteeism. Predicting flour sensitisation by a simple questionnaire and score chart seems more effective at detecting work-related allergy than serology testing followed by clinical investigation in all immunoglobulin E class II-positive individuals. This prediction based stratification procedure appeared effective in detecting work-related allergy among bakers and can accurately be used for periodic examination, especially in small enterprises where delivery of adequate care is difficult. This approach may contribute to cost reduction.

Assessment of the T-SPOT.CMV interferon-γ release assay in renal transplant recipients: A single center cohort study.

PubMed

Chanouzas, Dimitrios; Small, Alexander; Borrows, Richard; Ball, Simon

2018-01-01

The measurement of CMV specific cellular immunity in organ transplant recipients could contribute additional acuity to serology based, CMV infection risk stratification, facilitating optimisation of immunosuppression and anti-viral prophylaxis. A pilot study of renal transplant recipient (RTR's) responses in the T-SPOT.CMV ELISPOT based assay. 108 RTR's were recruited 3 months post-transplantation, immediately prior to the cessation of stratified anti-viral prophylaxis, used in recipients from seropositive donors. RTR's were monitored for CMV viremia and disease. Cellular responses to peptides derived from CMV IE1 and pp65 were measured, using the T-SPOT.CMV assay. At recruitment, no CMV specific cellular immunity was detected by T-SPOT.CMV in CMV seronegative recipients (IE1 ≤ 1spot / 2.5x105 PBMC's; pp65 ≤ 3 spots / 2.5x105 PBMC's). At recruitment, CMV sero-positive recipients who made a robust response to both IE1 (>25 spots / 2.5x105 PBMC's) and pp65 (>50 spots / 2.5x105 PBMC's), were less likely to develop high level viremia than those who responded to one or neither antigen (0/28 vs 5/25; p<0.02). In CMV seronegative RTR's, CMV specific cellular immunity measured by T-SPOT.CMV was not detected prior to cessation of anti-viral prophylaxis. This differs from recent reports of CMV specific cellular immunity in a proportion of CMV seronegative RTR's, associated with protection from CMV infection. In seropositive RTR's, a dual response to IE1 and pp65 at recruitment, was associated with protection from subsequent viremia. This suggests that assessing the diversity of response to CMV antigens, may enhance risk stratification in this group.

Propeptide big-endothelin, N-terminal-pro brain natriuretic peptide and mortality. The Ludwigshafen risk and cardiovascular health (LURIC) study.

PubMed

Gergei, Ingrid; Krämer, Bernhard K; Scharnagl, Hubert; Stojakovic, Tatjana; März, Winfried; Mondorf, Ulrich

The endothelin system (Big-ET-1) is a key regulator in cardiovascular (CV) disease and congestive heart failure (CHF). We have examined the incremental value of Big-ET-1 in predicting total and CV mortality next to the well-established CV risk marker N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide (NT-proBNP). Big-ET-1 and NT-proBNP were determined in 2829 participants referred for coronary angiography (follow-up 9.9 years). Big-ET-1 is an independent predictor of total, CV mortality and death due to CHF. The conjunct use of Big-ET-1 and NT-proBNP improves the risk stratification of patients with intermediate to high risk of CV death and CHF. Big-ET-1improves risk stratification in patients referred for coronary angiography.

Carotid plaque-thickness and common carotid IMT show additive value in cardiovascular risk prediction and reclassification.

PubMed

Amato, Mauro; Veglia, Fabrizio; de Faire, Ulf; Giral, Philippe; Rauramaa, Rainer; Smit, Andries J; Kurl, Sudhir; Ravani, Alessio; Frigerio, Beatrice; Sansaro, Daniela; Bonomi, Alice; Tedesco, Calogero C; Castelnuovo, Samuela; Mannarino, Elmo; Humphries, Steve E; Hamsten, Anders; Tremoli, Elena; Baldassarre, Damiano

2017-08-01

Carotid plaque size and the mean common carotid intima-media thickness measured in plaque-free areas (PF CC-IMT mean ) have been identified as predictors of vascular events (VEs), but their complementarity in risk prediction and stratification is still unresolved. The aim of this study was to evaluate the independence of carotid plaque thickness and PF CC-IMT mean in cardiovascular risk prediction and risk stratification. The IMPROVE-study is a European cohort (n = 3703), where the thickness of the largest plaque detected in the whole carotid tree was indexed as cIMT max . PF CC-IMT mean was also assessed. Hazard Ratios (HR) comparing the top quartiles of cIMT max and PF CC-IMT mean versus their respective 1-3 quartiles were calculated using Cox regression. After a 36.2-month follow-up, there were 215 VEs (125 coronary, 73 cerebral and 17 peripheral). Both cIMT max and PF CC-IMT mean were mutually independent predictors of combined-VEs, after adjustment for center, age, sex, risk factors and pharmacological treatment [HR (95% CI) = 1.98 (1.47, 2.67) and 1.68 (1.23, 2.29), respectively]. Both variables were independent predictors of cerebrovascular events (ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack), while only cIMT max was an independent predictor of coronary events (myocardial infarction, sudden cardiac death, angina pectoris, angioplasty, coronary bypass grafting). In reclassification analyses, PF CC-IMT mean significantly adds to a model including both Framingham Risk Factors and cIMT max (Integrated Discrimination Improvement; IDI = 0.009; p = 0.0001) and vice-versa (IDI = 0.02; p < 0.0001). cIMT max and PF CC-IMT mean are independent predictors of VEs, and as such, they should be used as additive rather than alternative variables in models for cardiovascular risk prediction and reclassification. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Why is cardiovascular risk stratification important in hypertensive patients?

PubMed

Coll-De-Tuero, Gabriel; Saez, Marc; Rodriguez-Poncelas, Antonio; Barceló-Rado, Antonia; Vargas-Vila, Susanna; Garre-Olmo, Josep; Sala, Victoria; Sieira, Angels; Gelada, Esther; Gelado-Ferrero, Jesús

2012-06-01

The aim is to evaluate whether cardiovascular (CV) risk stratification in newly diagnosed hypertensive patients according to the European Society of Hypertension (ESH) guidelines, can predict the evolution of target organ damage (TOD) using routine examinations in clinical practice during 1 year. Prospective study of recently diagnosed untreated hypertensives. At the moment of inclusion and 1 year later, urinary albumin excretion rate (UAER), blood analysis, electrocardiogram, retinography, self-monitored blood pressure (BP) and ambulatory BP measurement were performed. TOD was defined following the ESH guidelines and evaluated as having favorable or unfavorable evolution. Four hundred and seventy-nine hypertensive patients were included (58.8 years; 43.4% women). The baseline prevalence of TOD was: high UAER (2.4%), left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) (20.7%), advanced lesion of the fundus oculi (FO) (10.2%). After 1 year, no differences were found between the final systolic and diastolic BP neither in the high/very high nor in the low/moderate CV risk groups. Patients with low/moderate CV risk had less unfavorable TOD evolution, LVH (9.2% vs 41.7%; p <0.001), FO advanced damage (0.99% vs 14.3%; p <0.001), high UAER (0.3% vs 5.1%; p <0.005) and amount of TOD (9.2% vs 44.0%; 0<0.001) than those with high/very high CV risk. The odds ratios of favorable TOD evolution adjusted for BP change and antihypertensive drug treatment were (low/moderate vs high/very high CV risk); 5.14 (95% confidence interval, CI, 3.99-6.64) for LVH; 12.42 (6.67-23.14) FO advanced damage; 10.71 (3.67-31.22) high UAER and 13.99 (10.18-19.22) for amount of TOD. It is possible to detect variations in TOD in hypertensive patients with a 1-year follow-up using the examinations available in routine clinic practice. The risk determined by the ESH guidelines predicts the evolution of TOD at 1 year.

Diurnal and Seasonal Variations of Thermal Stratification and Vertical Mixing in a Shallow Fresh Water Lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yichen; Wang, Yongwei; Zhang, Zhen; Wang, Wei; Ren, Xia; Gao, Yaqi; Liu, Shoudong; Lee, Xuhui

2018-04-01

Among several influential factors, the geographical position and depth of a lake determine its thermal structure. In temperate zones, shallow lakes show significant differences in thermal stratification compared to deep lakes. Here, the variation in thermal stratification in Lake Taihu, a shallow fresh water lake, is studied systematically. Lake Taihu is a warm polymictic lake whose thermal stratification varies in short cycles of one day to a few days. The thermal stratification in Lake Taihu has shallow depths in the upper region and a large amplitude in the temperature gradient, the maximum of which exceeds 5°C m-1. The water temperature in the entire layer changes in a relatively consistent manner. Therefore, compared to a deep lake at similar latitude, the thermal stratification in Lake Taihu exhibits small seasonal differences, but the wide variation in the short term becomes important. Shallow polymictic lakes share the characteristic of diurnal mixing. Prominent differences on the duration and frequency of long-lasting thermal stratification are found in these lakes, which may result from the differences of local climate, lake depth, and fetch. A prominent response of thermal stratification to weather conditions is found, being controlled by the stratifying effect of solar radiation and the mixing effect of wind disturbance. Other than the diurnal stratification and convection, the representative responses of thermal stratification to these two factors with contrary effects are also discussed. When solar radiation increases, stronger wind is required to prevent the lake from becoming stratified. A daily average wind speed greater than 6 m s-1 can maintain the mixed state in Lake Taihu. Moreover, wind-induced convection is detected during thermal stratification. Due to lack of solar radiation, convection occurs more easily in nighttime than in daytime. Convection occurs frequently in fall and winter, whereas long-lasting and stable stratification causes less convection in summer.

Clinical Risk Stratification for Primary Prevention Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillators

PubMed Central

Hardy, Judy; Yee, Raymond; Healey, Jeffrey S.; Birnie, David; Simpson, Christopher S.; Crystal, Eugene; Mangat, Iqwal; Nanthakumar, Kumaraswamy; Wang, Xuesong; Krahn, Andrew D.; Dorian, Paul; Austin, Peter C.; Tu, Jack V.

2015-01-01

Background— A conceptualized model may be useful for understanding risk stratification of primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillators considering the competing risks of appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator shock versus mortality. Methods and Results— In a prospective, multicenter, population-based cohort with left ventricular ejection fraction ≤35% referred for primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillator, we developed dual risk stratification models to determine the competing risks of appropriate defibrillator shock versus mortality using a Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model. Among 7020 patients referred, 3445 underwent defibrillator implant (79.7% men, median, 66 years [25th, 75th: 58–73]). During 5918 person-years of follow-up, appropriate shock occurred in 204 patients (3.6 shocks/100 person-years) and 292 died (4.9 deaths/100 person-years). Competing risk predictors of appropriate shock included nonsustained ventricular tachycardia, atrial fibrillation, serum creatinine concentration, digoxin or amiodarone use, and QRS duration near 130-ms peak. One-year cumulative incidence of appropriate shock was 0.9% in the lowest risk category, and 1.7%, 2.5%, 4.9%, and 9.3% in low, intermediate, high, and highest risk groups, respectively. Hazard ratios for appropriate shock ranged from 4.04 to 7.79 in the highest 3 deciles (all P≤0.001 versus lowest risk). Cumulative incidence of 1-year death was 0.6%, 1.9%, 3.3%, 6.2%, and 17.7% in lowest, low, intermediate, high, and highest risk groups, respectively. Mortality hazard ratios ranged from 11.48 to 36.22 in the highest 3 deciles (all P<0.001 versus lowest risk). Conclusions— Simultaneous estimation of risks of appropriate shock and mortality can be performed using clinical variables, providing a potential framework for identification of patients who are unlikely to benefit from prophylactic implantable cardioverter defibrillator. PMID:26224792

Validation of a Novel Immunoline Assay for Patient Stratification according to Virulence of the Infecting Helicobacter pylori Strain and Eradication Status

PubMed Central

Formichella, Luca; Romberg, Laura; Meyer, Hannelore; Bolz, Christian; Vieth, Michael; Geppert, Michael; Göttner, Gereon; Nölting, Christina; Schepp, Wolfgang; Schneider, Arne; Ulm, Kurt; Wolf, Petra; Holster, Ingrid Lisanne; Kuipers, Ernst J.; Birkner, Bernd; Soutschek, Erwin

2017-01-01

Helicobacter pylori infection shows a worldwide prevalence of around 50%. However, only a minority of infected individuals develop clinical symptoms or diseases. The presence of H. pylori virulence factors, such as CagA and VacA, has been associated with disease development, but assessment of virulence factor presence requires gastric biopsies. Here, we evaluate the H. pylori recomLine test for risk stratification of infected patients by comparing the test score and immune recognition of type I or type II strains defined by the virulence factors CagA, VacA, GroEL, UreA, HcpC, and gGT with patient's disease status according to histology. Moreover, the immune responses of eradicated individuals from two different populations were analysed. Their immune response frequencies and intensities against all antigens except CagA declined below the detection limit. CagA was particularly long lasting in both independent populations. An isolated CagA band often represents past eradication with a likelihood of 88.7%. In addition, a high recomLine score was significantly associated with high-grade gastritis, atrophy, intestinal metaplasia, and gastric cancer. Thus, the recomLine is a sensitive and specific noninvasive test for detecting serum responses against H. pylori in actively infected and eradicated individuals. Moreover, it allows stratifying patients according to their disease state. PMID:28638837

A three-gene expression signature model for risk stratification of patients with neuroblastoma.

PubMed

Garcia, Idoia; Mayol, Gemma; Ríos, José; Domenech, Gema; Cheung, Nai-Kong V; Oberthuer, André; Fischer, Matthias; Maris, John M; Brodeur, Garrett M; Hero, Barbara; Rodríguez, Eva; Suñol, Mariona; Galvan, Patricia; de Torres, Carmen; Mora, Jaume; Lavarino, Cinzia

2012-04-01

Neuroblastoma is an embryonal tumor with contrasting clinical courses. Despite elaborate stratification strategies, precise clinical risk assessment still remains a challenge. The purpose of this study was to develop a PCR-based predictor model to improve clinical risk assessment of patients with neuroblastoma. The model was developed using real-time PCR gene expression data from 96 samples and tested on separate expression data sets obtained from real-time PCR and microarray studies comprising 362 patients. On the basis of our prior study of differentially expressed genes in favorable and unfavorable neuroblastoma subgroups, we identified three genes, CHD5, PAFAH1B1, and NME1, strongly associated with patient outcome. The expression pattern of these genes was used to develop a PCR-based single-score predictor model. The model discriminated patients into two groups with significantly different clinical outcome [set 1: 5-year overall survival (OS): 0.93 ± 0.03 vs. 0.53 ± 0.06, 5-year event-free survival (EFS): 0.85 ± 0.04 vs. 0.042 ± 0.06, both P < 0.001; set 2 OS: 0.97 ± 0.02 vs. 0.61 ± 0.1, P = 0.005, EFS: 0.91 ± 0.8 vs. 0.56 ± 0.1, P = 0.005; and set 3 OS: 0.99 ± 0.01 vs. 0.56 ± 0.06, EFS: 0.96 ± 0.02 vs. 0.43 ± 0.05, both P < 0.001]. Multivariate analysis showed that the model was an independent marker for survival (P < 0.001, for all). In comparison with accepted risk stratification systems, the model robustly classified patients in the total cohort and in different clinically relevant risk subgroups. We propose for the first time in neuroblastoma, a technically simple PCR-based predictor model that could help refine current risk stratification systems. ©2012 AACR.

A Three-Gene Expression Signature Model for Risk Stratification of Patients with Neuroblastoma

PubMed Central

Garcia, Idoia; Mayol, Gemma; Ríos, José; Domenech, Gema; Cheung, Nai-Kong V.; Oberthuer, André; Fischer, Matthias; Maris, John M.; Brodeur, Garrett M.; Hero, Barbara; Rodríguez, Eva; Suñol, Mariona; Galvan, Patricia; de Torres, Carmen; Mora, Jaume; Lavarino, Cinzia

2014-01-01

Purpose Neuroblastoma is an embryonal tumor with contrasting clinical courses. Despite elaborate stratification strategies, precise clinical risk assessment still remains a challenge. The purpose of this study was to develop a PCR-based predictor model to improve clinical risk assessment of patients with neuroblastoma. Experimental Design The model was developed using real-time PCR gene expression data from 96 samples and tested on separate expression data sets obtained from real-time PCR and microarray studies comprising 362 patients. Results On the basis of our prior study of differentially expressed genes in favorable and unfavorable neuroblastoma subgroups, we identified three genes, CHD5, PAFAH1B1, and NME1, strongly associated with patient outcome. The expression pattern of these genes was used to develop a PCR-based single-score predictor model. The model discriminated patients into two groups with significantly different clinical outcome [set 1: 5-year overall survival (OS): 0.93 ± 0.03 vs. 0.53 ± 0.06, 5-year event-free survival (EFS): 0.85 ± 0.04 vs. 0.042 ± 0.06, both P < 0.001; set 2 OS: 0.97 ± 0.02 vs. 0.61 ± 0.1, P = 0.005, EFS: 0.91 ± 0.8 vs. 0.56 ± 0.1, P = 0.005; and set 3 OS: 0.99 ± 0.01 vs. 0.56 ± 0.06, EFS: 0.96 ± 0.02 vs. 0.43 ± 0.05, both P < 0.001]. Multivariate analysis showed that the model was an independent marker for survival (P < 0.001, for all). In comparison with accepted risk stratification systems, the model robustly classified patients in the total cohort and in different clinically relevant risk subgroups. Conclusion We propose for the first time in neuroblastoma, a technically simple PCR-based predictor model that could help refine current risk stratification systems. PMID:22328561

Stratification-Based Outlier Detection over the Deep Web.

PubMed

Xian, Xuefeng; Zhao, Pengpeng; Sheng, Victor S; Fang, Ligang; Gu, Caidong; Yang, Yuanfeng; Cui, Zhiming

2016-01-01

For many applications, finding rare instances or outliers can be more interesting than finding common patterns. Existing work in outlier detection never considers the context of deep web. In this paper, we argue that, for many scenarios, it is more meaningful to detect outliers over deep web. In the context of deep web, users must submit queries through a query interface to retrieve corresponding data. Therefore, traditional data mining methods cannot be directly applied. The primary contribution of this paper is to develop a new data mining method for outlier detection over deep web. In our approach, the query space of a deep web data source is stratified based on a pilot sample. Neighborhood sampling and uncertainty sampling are developed in this paper with the goal of improving recall and precision based on stratification. Finally, a careful performance evaluation of our algorithm confirms that our approach can effectively detect outliers in deep web.

Stratification-Based Outlier Detection over the Deep Web

PubMed Central

Xian, Xuefeng; Zhao, Pengpeng; Sheng, Victor S.; Fang, Ligang; Gu, Caidong; Yang, Yuanfeng; Cui, Zhiming

2016-01-01

For many applications, finding rare instances or outliers can be more interesting than finding common patterns. Existing work in outlier detection never considers the context of deep web. In this paper, we argue that, for many scenarios, it is more meaningful to detect outliers over deep web. In the context of deep web, users must submit queries through a query interface to retrieve corresponding data. Therefore, traditional data mining methods cannot be directly applied. The primary contribution of this paper is to develop a new data mining method for outlier detection over deep web. In our approach, the query space of a deep web data source is stratified based on a pilot sample. Neighborhood sampling and uncertainty sampling are developed in this paper with the goal of improving recall and precision based on stratification. Finally, a careful performance evaluation of our algorithm confirms that our approach can effectively detect outliers in deep web. PMID:27313603

Analytical and assay issues for use of cardiac troponin testing for risk stratification in primary care.

PubMed

Wu, Alan H B; Christenson, Robert H

2013-08-01

Cardiac troponin is the standard marker for diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction and risk stratification of patients who present to an emergency department with signs and symptoms of acute cardiac ischemia. Over the past few years, the analytical sensitivity of assays for cardiac troponin has improved significantly to the point where a detectable amount of troponin can be measured in essentially all healthy subjects. Recent studies have shown that use of a highly sensitive troponin assays may provide value to traditional markers of primary disease risk for patients, i.e., for those who have no history of heart disease. There are barriers to the adoption of cardiac troponin for screening high risk cohorts such as the elderly, diabetics and perhaps even the asymptomatic population. Strategies used for the assignment of cutoff concentrations in acute care, i.e., the 99 th percentile, may not be appropriate for primary care as changes over baseline levels may provide more accurate information of risk than cross-sectional results. A review of biological variation has shown that cardiac troponin as a biomarker has low index of individuality, indicating that reference values are of little utility. Whether or not cardiac troponin can be released in reversible injury is a debate that could have significance for detecting minor myocardial injury. A major hurdle for use of troponin in primary care is the lack of assay standardization and nomenclature for the different generations of troponin assays. Standardization requires knowledge of what is released after cardiac injury and what the various cardiac troponin assays are measuring. Currently it is not clear if the cardiac troponin release after ischemic injury is identical to that in circulation of healthy individuals. This may affect the design of future assays and standardization approaches. There is potential that a marker of myocardial injury such as troponin can add to the value of existing indicators and biomarkers of cardiovascular disease risk. Additional analytical and clinical validations are needed to fully elucidate cardiac troponin metabolism and resolve ongoing clinical and laboratory issues. While these issues are directed to the use of troponin in primary care, most of these concepts are relevant to the use of troponin in acute coronary syndromes as well. Copyright © 2013 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lessons from the Johns Hopkins Multi-Disciplinary Venous Thromboembolism (VTE) Prevention Collaborative

PubMed Central

Streiff, Michael B; Carolan, Howard T; Hobson, Deborah B; Kraus, Peggy S; Holzmueller, Christine G; Demski, Renee; Lau, Brandyn D; Biscup-Horn, Paula; Pronovost, Peter J

2012-01-01

Problem Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common cause of potentially preventable mortality, morbidity, and increased medical costs. Risk-appropriate prophylaxis can prevent most VTE events, but only a small fraction of patients at risk receive this treatment. Design Prospective quality improvement programme. Setting Johns Hopkins Hospital, Baltimore, Maryland, USA. Strategies for change A multidisciplinary team established a VTE Prevention Collaborative in 2005. The collaborative applied the four step TRIP (translating research into practice) model to develop and implement a mandatory clinical decision support tool for VTE risk stratification and risk-appropriate VTE prophylaxis for all hospitalised adult patients. Initially, paper based VTE order sets were implemented, which were then converted into 16 specialty-specific, mandatory, computerised, clinical decision support modules. Key measures for improvement VTE risk stratification within 24 hours of hospital admission and provision of risk-appropriate, evidence based VTE prophylaxis. Effects of change The VTE team was able to increase VTE risk assessment and ordering of risk-appropriate prophylaxis with paper based order sets to a limited extent, but achieved higher compliance with a computerised clinical decision support tool and the data feedback which it enabled. Risk-appropriate VTE prophylaxis increased from 26% to 80% for surgical patients and from 25% to 92% for medical patients in 2011. Lessons learnt A computerised clinical decision support tool can increase VTE risk stratification and risk-appropriate VTE prophylaxis among hospitalised adult patients admitted to a large urban academic medical centre. It is important to ensure the tool is part of the clinician’s normal workflow, is mandatory (computerised forcing function), and offers the requisite modules needed for every clinical specialty. PMID:22718994

The Value of Elastic Modulus Index as a Novel Surrogate Marker for Cardiovascular Risk Stratification by Dimensional Speckle-Tracking Carotid Ultrasonography

PubMed Central

Yoon, Ji Hyun; Cho, In-Jeong; Sung, Ji Min; Lee, Jinyong; Ryoo, Hojin; Shim, Chi Young; Hong, Geu-Ru; Chung, Namsik

2016-01-01

Background Carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) and the presence of carotid plaque have been used for risk stratification of cardiovascular disease (CVD). To date, however, the association between multi-directional functional properties of carotid artery and CVD has not been fully elucidated. We sought to explore the multi-directional mechanics of the carotid artery in relation to cardiovascular risk. Methods Four hundred one patients who underwent carotid ultrasound were enrolled between January 2010 and April 2013. A high risk of CVD was defined as more than 20% of 10-year risk based on the Framingham risk score. Using a speckle-tracking technique, the longitudinal and radial movements were analyzed in the B-mode images. Peak longitudinal and radial displacements, strain and strain rate were also measured. Beta stiffness and elastic modulus index were calculated from the radial measurements. Results Of the overall sample, 13% (52) of patients comprised the high-risk group. In multivariate logistic regression, CIMT and elastic modulus index were independently associated with a high-risk of CVD {odds ratio (OR): 1.810 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.249–2.622] and OR: 1.767 (95% CI: 1.177–2.652); p = 0.002, 0.006, respectively}. The combination of CIMT and elastic modulus index correlated with a high-risk of CVD more so than CIMT alone. Conclusion The elastic modulus index of the carotid artery might serve as a novel surrogate marker of high-risk CVD. Measurement of the multi-directional mechanics of the carotid artery using the speckle tracking technique has potential for providing further information over conventional B-mode ultrasound for stratification of CVD risk. PMID:27721952

Atherothrombotic Risk Stratification and Ezetimibe for Secondary Prevention.

PubMed

Bohula, Erin A; Morrow, David A; Giugliano, Robert P; Blazing, Michael A; He, Ping; Park, Jeong-Gun; Murphy, Sabina A; White, Jennifer A; Kesaniemi, Y Antero; Pedersen, Terje R; Brady, Adrian J; Mitchel, Yale; Cannon, Christopher P; Braunwald, Eugene

2017-02-28

Ezetimibe improves cardiovascular (CV) outcomes in patients stabilized after acute coronary syndrome (ACS) when added to statin therapy. After ACS, patients vary considerably in their risk for recurrent CV events. This study tested the hypothesis that atherothrombotic risk stratification may be useful to identify post-ACS patients who have the greatest potential for benefit from the addition of ezetimibe to statin therapy. The TIMI (Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction) Risk Score for Secondary Prevention (TRS 2°P) is a simple 9-point risk stratification tool, previously developed in a large population with atherothrombosis to predict CV death, myocardial infarction (MI), and ischemic stroke (CV death/MI/ischemic cerebrovascular accident [iCVA]). The current study applied this tool prospectively to 17,717 post-ACS patients randomized either to ezetimibe and simvastatin or to placebo and simvastatin in IMPROVE-IT (Improved Reduction of Outcomes: Vytorin Efficacy International Trial). Treatment efficacy was assessed by baseline risk for CV death/MI/iCVA, the IMPROVE-IT composite endpoints (CE), and individual component endpoints at 7 years. All 9 clinical variables in the TRS 2°P were independent risk indicators for CV death/MI/iCVA (p < 0.001). The integer-based scheme showed a strong graded relationship with the rate of CV death/MI/iCVA, the trial CE, and the individual components (p trend <0.0001 for each). High-risk patients (n = 4,393; 25%), defined by ≥3 risk indicators, had a 6.3% (95% confidence interval: 2.9% to 9.7%) absolute risk reduction in CV death/MI/iCVA at 7 years with ezetimibe/simvastatin, thus translating to a number-needed-to-treat of 16. Intermediate-risk patients (2 risk indicators; n = 5,292; 30%) had a 2.2% (95% confidence interval: -0.3% to 4.6%) absolute risk reduction. Low-risk patients (0 to 1 risk indicators; n = 8,032; 45%) did not appear to derive benefit from the addition of ezetimibe (p interaction = 0.010). Similar findings were observed for the IMPROVE-IT primary CE. Atherothrombotic risk stratification using the TRS 2°P identifies high-risk patients who derive greatest benefit from the addition of ezetimibe to statin therapy for secondary prevention after ACS. (Improved Reduction of Outcomes: Vytorin Efficacy International Trial [IMPROVE-IT]; NCT00202878). Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exploring a new bilateral focal density asymmetry based image marker to predict breast cancer risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aghaei, Faranak; Mirniaharikandehei, Seyedehnafiseh; Hollingsworth, Alan B.; Wang, Yunzhi; Qiu, Yuchen; Liu, Hong; Zheng, Bin

2017-03-01

Although breast density has been widely considered an important breast cancer risk factor, it is not very effective to predict risk of developing breast cancer in a short-term or harboring cancer in mammograms. Based on our recent studies to build short-term breast cancer risk stratification models based on bilateral mammographic density asymmetry, we in this study explored a new quantitative image marker based on bilateral focal density asymmetry to predict the risk of harboring cancers in mammograms. For this purpose, we assembled a testing dataset involving 100 positive and 100 negative cases. In each of positive case, no any solid masses are visible on mammograms. We developed a computer-aided detection (CAD) scheme to automatically detect focal dense regions depicting on two bilateral mammograms of left and right breasts. CAD selects one focal dense region with the maximum size on each image and computes its asymmetrical ratio. We used this focal density asymmetry as a new imaging marker to divide testing cases into two groups of higher and lower focal density asymmetry. The first group included 70 cases in which 62.9% are positive, while the second group included 130 cases in which 43.1% are positive. The odds ratio is 2.24. As a result, this preliminary study supported the feasibility of applying a new focal density asymmetry based imaging marker to predict the risk of having mammography-occult cancers. The goal is to assist radiologists more effectively and accurately detect early subtle cancers using mammography and/or other adjunctive imaging modalities in the future.

Prediction of breast cancer risk using a machine learning approach embedded with a locality preserving projection algorithm.

PubMed

Heidari, Morteza; Khuzani, Abolfazl Zargari; Hollingsworth, Alan B; Danala, Gopichandh; Mirniaharikandehei, Seyedehnafiseh; Qiu, Yuchen; Liu, Hong; Zheng, Bin

2018-01-30

In order to automatically identify a set of effective mammographic image features and build an optimal breast cancer risk stratification model, this study aims to investigate advantages of applying a machine learning approach embedded with a locally preserving projection (LPP) based feature combination and regeneration algorithm to predict short-term breast cancer risk. A dataset involving negative mammograms acquired from 500 women was assembled. This dataset was divided into two age-matched classes of 250 high risk cases in which cancer was detected in the next subsequent mammography screening and 250 low risk cases, which remained negative. First, a computer-aided image processing scheme was applied to segment fibro-glandular tissue depicted on mammograms and initially compute 44 features related to the bilateral asymmetry of mammographic tissue density distribution between left and right breasts. Next, a multi-feature fusion based machine learning classifier was built to predict the risk of cancer detection in the next mammography screening. A leave-one-case-out (LOCO) cross-validation method was applied to train and test the machine learning classifier embedded with a LLP algorithm, which generated a new operational vector with 4 features using a maximal variance approach in each LOCO process. Results showed a 9.7% increase in risk prediction accuracy when using this LPP-embedded machine learning approach. An increased trend of adjusted odds ratios was also detected in which odds ratios increased from 1.0 to 11.2. This study demonstrated that applying the LPP algorithm effectively reduced feature dimensionality, and yielded higher and potentially more robust performance in predicting short-term breast cancer risk.

Prediction of breast cancer risk using a machine learning approach embedded with a locality preserving projection algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidari, Morteza; Zargari Khuzani, Abolfazl; Hollingsworth, Alan B.; Danala, Gopichandh; Mirniaharikandehei, Seyedehnafiseh; Qiu, Yuchen; Liu, Hong; Zheng, Bin

2018-02-01

In order to automatically identify a set of effective mammographic image features and build an optimal breast cancer risk stratification model, this study aims to investigate advantages of applying a machine learning approach embedded with a locally preserving projection (LPP) based feature combination and regeneration algorithm to predict short-term breast cancer risk. A dataset involving negative mammograms acquired from 500 women was assembled. This dataset was divided into two age-matched classes of 250 high risk cases in which cancer was detected in the next subsequent mammography screening and 250 low risk cases, which remained negative. First, a computer-aided image processing scheme was applied to segment fibro-glandular tissue depicted on mammograms and initially compute 44 features related to the bilateral asymmetry of mammographic tissue density distribution between left and right breasts. Next, a multi-feature fusion based machine learning classifier was built to predict the risk of cancer detection in the next mammography screening. A leave-one-case-out (LOCO) cross-validation method was applied to train and test the machine learning classifier embedded with a LLP algorithm, which generated a new operational vector with 4 features using a maximal variance approach in each LOCO process. Results showed a 9.7% increase in risk prediction accuracy when using this LPP-embedded machine learning approach. An increased trend of adjusted odds ratios was also detected in which odds ratios increased from 1.0 to 11.2. This study demonstrated that applying the LPP algorithm effectively reduced feature dimensionality, and yielded higher and potentially more robust performance in predicting short-term breast cancer risk.

Initial clinical validation of Health Heritage, a patient-facing tool for personal and family history collection and cancer risk assessment.

PubMed

Baumgart, Leigh A; Postula, Kristen J Vogel; Knaus, William A

2016-04-01

Personal and family health histories remain important independent risk factors for cancer; however they are currently not being well collected or used effectively. Health Heritage was designed to address this need. The purpose of this study was to validate the ability of Health Heritage to identify patients appropriate for further genetic evaluation and to accurately stratify cancer risk. A retrospective chart review was conducted on 100 random patients seen at an adult genetics clinic presenting with concern for an inherited predisposition to cancer. Relevant personal and family history obtained from the patients' medical records was entered into Health Heritage. Recommendations by Health Heritage were compared to national guidelines of eligibility for genetic evaluation. Agreement between Health Heritage referral for genetic evaluation and guideline eligibility for genetic evaluation was 97% (sensitivity 98% and specificity 88%). Risk stratification for cancer was also compared between Health Heritage and those documented by a geneticist. For patients at increased risk for breast, ovarian, or colorectal cancer as determined by the geneticist, risk stratification by Health Heritage agreed 90, 93, and 75%, respectively. Discordances in risk stratification were attributed to both complex situations better handled by the geneticist and Health Heritage's adherence to incorporating all information into its algorithms. Health Heritage is a clinically valid tool to identify patients appropriate for further genetic evaluation and to encourage them to confirm the assessment and management recommendations with cancer genetic experts. Health Heritage also provides an estimate of cancer risk that is complementary to a genetics team.

Stratification of the Risk of Sudden Death in Nonischemic Heart Failure

PubMed Central

Pimentel, Maurício; Zimerman, Leandro Ioschpe; Rohde, Luis Eduardo

2014-01-01

Despite significant therapeutic advancements, heart failure remains a highly prevalent clinical condition associated with significant morbidity and mortality. In 30%-40% patients, the etiology of heart failure is nonischemic. The implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) is capable of preventing sudden death and decreasing total mortality in patients with nonischemic heart failure. However, a significant number of patients receiving ICD do not receive any kind of therapy during follow-up. Moreover, considering the situation in Brazil and several other countries, ICD cannot be implanted in all patients with nonischemic heart failure. Therefore, there is an urgent need to identify patients at an increased risk of sudden death because these would benefit more than patients at a lower risk, despite the presence of heart failure in both risk groups. In this study, the authors review the primary available methods for the stratification of the risk of sudden death in patients with nonischemic heart failure. PMID:25352509

Coronary heart disease risk stratification: pitfalls and possibilities.

PubMed

Negi, Smita; Nambi, Vijay

Atherosclerosis of the coronary arteries, or coronary heart disease (CHD), is the most common cause of mortality in U.S. adults. The pathobiology of atherosclerosis and its complications is a continuum. At one end of the spectrum are young individuals without atherosclerotic disease who have not yet been exposed to lifestyle or other risk factors, and at the other end are patients with manifest atherosclerosis - myocardial infarction, stroke, and disabling peripheral arterial disease - where risk of recurrent disease and death is driven by the same factors initially responsible for the emergence of disease. However, it is clear that while risk factors are important in the development of CHD, not everyone with risk factors develops the disease and not everyone with CHD has risk factors. Furthermore, even similar degrees of exposure to a risk factor leads to disease in some individuals and not in others. Risk prediction, which is crucial in predicting and hence preventing disease, therefore becomes very challenging. In this article we review the currently available risk stratification tools for predicting CHD risk and discuss potential ways to improve risk prediction.

Peak oxygen uptake, ventilatory efficiency and QRS-duration predict event free survival in patients late after surgical repair of tetralogy of Fallot.

PubMed

Müller, Jan; Hager, Alfred; Diller, Gerhard-Paul; Derrick, Graham; Buys, Roselien; Dubowy, Karl-Otto; Takken, Tim; Orwat, Stefan; Inuzuka, Ryo; Vanhees, Luc; Gatzoulis, Michael; Giardini, Alessandro

2015-10-01

Patients with repaired tetralogy of Fallot (ToF) have an increased long-term risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Risk stratification in this population is difficult. Initial evidence suggests that cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) may be helpful to risk-stratify patients with repaired ToF. We studied 875 patients after surgical repair for ToF (358 females, age 25.5 ± 11.7 year, range 7-75 years) who underwent CPET between 1999 and 2009. During a mean follow-up of 4.1 ± 2.6 years after CPET, 30 patients (3.4%) died or had sustained ventricular tachycardia (VT). 225 patients (25.7%) had other cardiac related events (emergency admission, surgery, or catheter interventions). On multivariable Cox regression-analysis, %predicted peak oxygen uptake (V˙O2 %) (p=0.001), resting QRS duration (p=0.030) and age (p<0.001) emerged as independent predictors of mortality or sustained VT. Patients with a peak V˙O2 ≤ 65% of predicted and a resting QRS duration ≥ 170 ms had a 11.4-fold risk of death or sustained VT. Ventilatory efficiency expressed as V˙E/V˙CO2 slope (p<0.001), peak V˙O2 % (p=.001), QRS duration (p=.001) and age (p=0.046) independently predicted event free survival. V˙E/V˙CO2 slope ≥ 31.0, peak V˙O2 % ≤ 65% and QRS duration ≥ 170 ms were the cut-off points with best sensitivity and specificity to detect an unfavorable outcome. CPET is an important predictive tool that may assist in the risk stratification of patients with ToF. Subjects with a poor exercise capacity in addition to a prolonged QRS duration have a substantially increased risk for death or sustained ventricular tachycardia, as well as for cardiac-related hospitalizations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Commercial Motor Vehicle Driver Obstructive Sleep Apnea Screening and Treatment in the United States: An Update and Recommendation Overview.

PubMed

Colvin, Loretta J; Collop, Nancy A

2016-01-01

No regulatory mandate exists in the United States (U.S.) for comprehensive obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) risk assessment and stratification for commercial motor vehicle (CMV) drivers. Current Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) requirements are outdated and depend largely on subjective report, a less reliable strategy in an occupational setting. Without FMCSA standards, sleep specialists, occupational medical examiners and employers rely on a collection of medical consensus recommendations to establish standards of care. These recommendations advise OSA risk assessment through a combination of focused medical history, physical examination, questionnaires, and accident history, which increase OSA detection compared to current FMCSA standards. For those diagnosed with OSA, consensus-based risk stratification helps identify CMV drivers who may benefit from OSA treatment and establish minimum standards for assessing treatment efficacy and adherence. Unfortunately no consolidated recommendation exists; rather, publications span medical and governmental literature in a patchwork fashion that no longer fully reflect current practice due to subsequent advances in OSA diagnosis, treatment, and technology. Based on searches of medical literature, internet materials, and reference lists from existing publications, an overview and discussion of key published recommendations regarding OSA assessment and treatment in CMV operators is provided. Suggestions for incorporating these recommendations into clinical sleep medicine practice in the U.S. are presented. The challenge for sleep specialists is maintaining the delicate balance between recommendations impacting standard of care and associated medico-legal impact with stakeholder interests from medical, regulatory, industry and public perspectives while providing high quality and efficient care. © 2016 American Academy of Sleep Medicine.

Recent advances in understanding idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

PubMed Central

Daccord, Cécile; Maher, Toby M.

2016-01-01

Despite major research efforts leading to the recent approval of pirfenidone and nintedanib, the dismal prognosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) remains unchanged. The elaboration of international diagnostic criteria and disease stratification models based on clinical, physiological, radiological, and histopathological features has improved the accuracy of IPF diagnosis and prediction of mortality risk. Nevertheless, given the marked heterogeneity in clinical phenotype and the considerable overlap of IPF with other fibrotic interstitial lung diseases (ILDs), about 10% of cases of pulmonary fibrosis remain unclassifiable. Moreover, currently available tools fail to detect early IPF, predict the highly variable course of the disease, and assess response to antifibrotic drugs. Recent advances in understanding the multiple interrelated pathogenic pathways underlying IPF have identified various molecular phenotypes resulting from complex interactions among genetic, epigenetic, transcriptional, post-transcriptional, metabolic, and environmental factors. These different disease endotypes appear to confer variable susceptibility to the condition, differing risks of rapid progression, and, possibly, altered responses to therapy. The development and validation of diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers are necessary to enable a more precise and earlier diagnosis of IPF and to improve prediction of future disease behaviour. The availability of approved antifibrotic therapies together with potential new drugs currently under evaluation also highlights the need for biomarkers able to predict and assess treatment responsiveness, thereby allowing individualised treatment based on risk of progression and drug response. This approach of disease stratification and personalised medicine is already used in the routine management of many cancers and provides a potential road map for guiding clinical care in IPF. PMID:27303645

Contemporary approach to essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera.

PubMed

Aruch, Daniel; Mascarenhas, John

2016-03-01

Management of polycythemia vera and essential thrombocythemia requires understanding of the key concepts regarding diagnosis, risk stratification, and management. Essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera are among the Philadelphia chromosome negative myeloproliferative neoplasms. They are characterized by overproduction of blood cells and their complications include thrombosis, hemorrhage, and progression to myelofibrosis or acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Management of essential thrombocythemia/polycythemia vera requires recognition of the risk factors for thrombosis and hemorrhage. Risk stratification allows the clinician to make a treatment plan that may include antiplatelet therapy with aspirin alone or in combination with therapeutic phlebotomy in the case of polycythemia vera, or cytoreductive therapy for high-risk patients with either essential thrombocythemia or polycythemia vera. Hydroxyurea remains first-line therapy for high-risk patients with essential thrombocythemia/polycythemia vera, whereas second-line options include anagrelide, pegylated-IFNα-2a, and the JAK1/2 inhibitor ruxolitinib. The current evaluation of pegylated-IFNα-2a in global phase II and III studies will provide clarity to the potential long-term benefit and risks associated with this biologic in patients with essential thrombocythemia/polycythemia vera. Novel therapeutics aimed at prevention of disease progression to myelofibrosis/AML are the focus of current clinical trials. Risk stratification of patients with essential thrombocythemia/polycythemia vera by age and/or history of thrombosis provides the basis of risk adapted therapeutic intervention. Aggressive control of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors, the use of antiplatelet agents, control of the hematocrit less than 45% in polycythemia vera, and cytoreductive therapy in high-risk essential thrombocythemia/polycythemia vera patients is the focus of management. The exact role of IFN-α remains undefined and under active investigation, and the recent approval of ruxolitinib provides patients with polycythemia vera a second-line option.

Risk stratification of prostate cancer: integrating multiparametric MRI, nomograms and biomarkers

PubMed Central

Watson, Matthew J; George, Arvin K; Maruf, Mahir; Frye, Thomas P; Muthigi, Akhil; Kongnyuy, Michael; Valayil, Subin G; Pinto, Peter A

2016-01-01

Accurate risk stratification of prostate cancer is achieved with a number of existing tools to ensure the identification of at-risk patients, characterization of disease aggressiveness, prediction of cancer burden and extrapolation of treatment outcomes for appropriate management of the disease. Statistical tables and nomograms using classic clinicopathological variables have long been the standard of care. However, the introduction of multiparametric MRI, along with fusion-guided targeted prostate biopsy and novel biomarkers, are being assimilated into clinical practice. The majority of studies to date present the outcomes of each in isolation. The current review offers a critical and objective assessment regarding the integration of multiparametric MRI and fusion-guided prostate biopsy with novel biomarkers and predictive nomograms in contemporary clinical practice. PMID:27400645

The Value of Circulating Biomarkers in Bicuspid Aortic Valve-Associated Aortopathy.

PubMed

Naito, Shiho; Hillebrand, Mathias; Bernhardt, Alexander Martin Justus; Jagodzinski, Annika; Conradi, Lenard; Detter, Christian; Sydow, Karsten; Reichenspurner, Hermann; Kodolitsch, Yskert von; Girdauskas, Evaldas

2018-06-01

Traditional risk stratification model of bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) aortopathy is based on measurement of maximal cross-sectional aortic diameter, definition of proximal aortic shape, and aortic stiffness/elasticity parameters. However, conventional imaging-based criteria are unable to provide reliable information regarding the risk stratification in BAV aortopathy, especially considering the heterogeneous nature of BAV disease. Given those limitations of conventional imaging, there is a growing clinical interest to use circulating biomarkers in the screening process for thoracic aortic aneurysms as well as in the risk-assessment algorithms. We aimed to systematically review currently available biomarkers, which may be of value to predict the natural evolution of aortopathy in individuals with BAV. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

A new gender-specific model for skin autofluorescence risk stratification

PubMed Central

Ahmad, Muhammad S.; Damanhouri, Zoheir A.; Kimhofer, Torben; Mosli, Hala H.; Holmes, Elaine

2015-01-01

Advanced glycation endproducts (AGEs) are believed to play a significant role in the pathophysiology of a variety of diseases including diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. Non-invasive skin autofluorescence (SAF) measurement serves as a proxy for tissue accumulation of AGEs. We assessed reference SAF and skin reflectance (SR) values in a Saudi population (n = 1,999) and evaluated the existing risk stratification scale. The mean SAF of the study cohort was 2.06 (SD = 0.57) arbitrary units (AU), which is considerably higher than the values reported for other populations. We show a previously unreported and significant difference in SAF values between men and women, with median (range) values of 1.77 AU (0.79–4.84 AU) and 2.20 AU (0.75–4.59 AU) respectively (p-value « 0.01). Age, presence of diabetes and BMI were the most influential variables in determining SAF values in men, whilst in female participants, SR was also highly correlated with SAF. Diabetes, hypertension and obesity all showed strong association with SAF, particularly when gender differences were taken into account. We propose an adjusted, gender-specific disease risk stratification scheme for Middle Eastern populations. SAF is a potentially valuable clinical screening tool for cardiovascular risk assessment but risk scores should take gender and ethnicity into consideration for accurate diagnosis. PMID:25974028

Risk stratification, genomic data and the law.

PubMed

Hall, Alison; Finnegan, Thomas; Chowdhury, Susmita; Dent, Tom; Kroese, Mark; Burton, Hilary

2018-02-22

Risk prediction models have a key role in stratified disease prevention, and the incorporation of genomic data into these models promises more effective personalisation. Although the clinical utility of incorporating genomic data into risk prediction tools is increasingly compelling, at least for some applications and disease types, the legal and regulatory implications have not been examined and have been overshadowed by discussions about clinical and scientific utility and feasibility. We held a workshop to explore relevant legal and regulatory perspectives from four EU Member States: France, Germany, the Netherlands and the UK. While we found no absolute prohibition on the use of such data in those tools, there are considerable challenges. Currently, these are modest and result from genomic data being classified as sensitive data under existing Data Protection regulation. However, these challenges will increase in the future following the implementation of EU Regulations on data protection which take effect in 2018, and reforms to the governance of the manufacture, development and use of in vitro diagnostic devices to be implemented in 2022. Collectively these will increase the regulatory burden placed on these products as risk stratification tools will be brought within the scope of these new Regulations. The failure to respond to the challenges posed by the use of genomic data in disease risk stratification tools could therefore prove costly to those developing and using such tools.

Brugada syndrome: diagnosis, risk stratification, and management.

PubMed

Adler, Arnon

2016-01-01

Asymptomatic patients with Brugada syndrome (BrS) have a small, but not trivial, risk of cardiac events. Their risk stratification and its impact on their management are controversial. The review focuses on the clinical aspects of BrS with special emphasis on the asymptomatic patient. Emerging data suggest that drug and fever-induced type I Brugada patterns are more common than previously appreciated. Although preliminary, these data may imply that asymptomatic patients with induced Brugada pattern are at an even lower risk than currently estimated.The latest data regarding induced ventricular arrhythmias during electrophysiological studies support its use as an indication for an implantable cardioverter defibrillator; however, this issue remains highly controversial.Several new risk markers, such as presence of the Brugada pattern in infero-lateral leads or the concomitant finding of an early repolarization pattern, have recently been proposed. Most asymptomatic BrS patients are at low risk of cardiac events. The presence of new risk markers in this population may prompt consideration of primary prevention measures; however, data supporting this approach are still limited.

Lagged segmented Poincaré plot analysis for risk stratification in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Voss, Andreas; Fischer, Claudia; Schroeder, Rico; Figulla, Hans R; Goernig, Matthias

2012-07-01

The objectives of this study were to introduce a new type of heart-rate variability analysis improving risk stratification in patients with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) and to provide additional information about impaired heart beat generation in these patients. Beat-to-beat intervals (BBI) of 30-min ECGs recorded from 91 DCM patients and 21 healthy subjects were analyzed applying the lagged segmented Poincaré plot analysis (LSPPA) method. LSPPA includes the Poincaré plot reconstruction with lags of 1-100, rotating the cloud of points, its normalized segmentation adapted to their standard deviations, and finally, a frequency-dependent clustering. The lags were combined into eight different clusters representing specific frequency bands within 0.012-1.153 Hz. Statistical differences between low- and high-risk DCM could be found within the clusters II-VIII (e.g., cluster IV: 0.033-0.038 Hz; p = 0.0002; sensitivity = 85.7 %; specificity = 71.4 %). The multivariate statistics led to a sensitivity of 92.9 %, specificity of 85.7 % and an area under the curve of 92.1 % discriminating these patient groups. We introduced the LSPPA method to investigate time correlations in BBI time series. We found that LSPPA contributes considerably to risk stratification in DCM and yields the highest discriminant power in the low and very low-frequency bands.

Cloning of the first human anti-JCPyV/VP1 neutralizing monoclonal antibody: epitope definition and implications in risk stratification of patients under natalizumab therapy.

PubMed

Diotti, Roberta Antonia; Mancini, Nicasio; Clementi, Nicola; Sautto, Giuseppe; Moreno, Guisella Janett; Criscuolo, Elena; Cappelletti, Francesca; Man, Petr; Forest, Eric; Remy, Louise; Giannecchini, Simone; Clementi, Massimo; Burioni, Roberto

2014-08-01

JC virus (JCPyV) has gained novel clinical importance as cause of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML), a rare demyelinating disease recently associated to immunomodulatory drugs, such as natalizumab used in multiple sclerosis (MS) cases. Little is known about the mechanisms leading to PML, and this makes the need of PML risk stratification among natalizumab-treated patients very compelling. Clinical and laboratory-based risk-stratification markers have been proposed, one of these is represented by the JCPyV-seropositive status, which includes about 54% of MS patients. We recently proposed to investigate the possible protective role of neutralizing humoral immune response in preventing JCPyV reactivation. In this proof-of-concept study, by cloning the first human monoclonal antibody (GRE1) directed against a neutralizing epitope on JCPyV/VP1, we optimized a robust anti-JCPyV neutralization assay. This allowed us to evaluate the neutralizing activity in JCPyV-positive sera from MS patients, demonstrating the lack of correlation between the level of anti-JCPyV antibody and anti-JCPyV neutralizing activity. Relevant consequences may derive from future clinical studies induced by these findings; indeed the study of the serum anti-JCPyV neutralizing activity could allow not only a better risk stratification of the patients during natalizumab treatment, but also a better understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms leading to PML, highlighting the contribution of peripheral versus central nervous system JCPyV reactivation. Noteworthy, the availability of GRE1 could allow the design of novel immunoprophylactic strategies during the immunomodulatory treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Current approaches for risk stratification of infectious complications in pediatric oncology.

PubMed

Härtel, Christoph; Deuster, Maresa; Lehrnbecher, Thomas; Schultz, Christian

2007-11-01

Infections are serious complications of cytoreductive therapy in pediatric cancer patients presenting with febrile neutropenia. It is standard of care to initiate empirical intravenous broad-spectrum antibiotics until the fever and neutropenia resolve. However, it might be effective and safe to allow for early hospital discharge in certain subgroups of patients. Two strategies for risk stratification of pediatric cancer patients with regard to infectious complications are discussed in this review: (1) clinical risk parameters and laboratory measures to assist therapeutic management at presentation with fever in neutropenia, and (2) investigations of individual genetic susceptibility factors to tailor potential prophylactic approaches. Given the data available from a significant number of small studies, a large prospective non-inferiority trial is essential to assess low-risk clinical factors and additional laboratory or genetic markers for their predictive value. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Breast Cancer Risk From Modifiable and Nonmodifiable Risk Factors Among White Women in the United States

PubMed Central

Maas, Paige; Barrdahl, Myrto; Joshi, Amit D.; Auer, Paul L.; Gaudet, Mia M.; Milne, Roger L.; Schumacher, Fredrick R.; Anderson, William F.; Check, David; Chattopadhyay, Subham; Baglietto, Laura; Berg, Christine D.; Chanock, Stephen J.; Cox, David G.; Figueroa, Jonine D.; Gail, Mitchell H.; Graubard, Barry I.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Hankinson, Susan E.; Hoover, Robert N.; Isaacs, Claudine; Kolonel, Laurence N.; Le Marchand, Loic; Lee, I-Min; Lindström, Sara; Overvad, Kim; Romieu, Isabelle; Sanchez, Maria-Jose; Southey, Melissa C.; Stram, Daniel O.; Tumino, Rosario; VanderWeele, Tyler J.; Willett, Walter C.; Zhang, Shumin; Buring, Julie E.; Canzian, Federico; Gapstur, Susan M.; Henderson, Brian E.; Hunter, David J.; Giles, Graham G; Prentice, Ross L.; Ziegler, Regina G.; Kraft, Peter; Garcia-Closas, Montse; Chatterjee, Nilanjan

2017-01-01

IMPORTANCE An improved model for risk stratification can be useful for guiding public health strategies of breast cancer prevention. OBJECTIVE To evaluate combined risk stratification utility of common low penetrant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and epidemiologic risk factors. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Using a total of 17 171 cases and 19 862 controls sampled from the Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium (BPC3) and 5879 women participating in the 2010 National Health Interview Survey, a model for predicting absolute risk of breast cancer was developed combining information on individual level data on epidemiologic risk factors and 24 genotyped SNPs from prospective cohort studies, published estimate of odds ratios for 68 additional SNPs, population incidence rate from the National Cancer Institute-Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program cancer registry and data on risk factor distribution from nationally representative health survey. The model is used to project the distribution of absolute risk for the population of white women in the United States after adjustment for competing cause of mortality. EXPOSURES Single nucleotide polymorphisms, family history, anthropometric factors, menstrual and/or reproductive factors, and lifestyle factors. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Degree of stratification of absolute risk owing to nonmodifiable (SNPs, family history, height, and some components of menstrual and/or reproductive history) and modifiable factors (body mass index [BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared], menopausal hormone therapy [MHT], alcohol, and smoking). RESULTS The average absolute risk for a 30-year-old white woman in the United States developing invasive breast cancer by age 80 years is 11.3%. A model that includes all risk factors provided a range of average absolute risk from 4.4% to 23.5% for women in the bottom and top deciles of the risk distribution, respectively. For women who were at the lowest and highest deciles of nonmodifiable risks, the 5th and 95th percentile range of the risk distribution associated with 4 modifiable factors was 2.9% to 5.0% and 15.5% to 25.0%, respectively. For women in the highest decile of risk owing to nonmodifiable factors, those who had low BMI, did not drink or smoke, and did not use MHT had risks comparable to an average woman in the general population. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This model for absolute risk of breast cancer including SNPs can provide stratification for the population of white women in the United States. The model can also identify subsets of the population at an elevated risk that would benefit most from risk-reduction strategies based on altering modifiable factors. The effectiveness of this model for individual risk communication needs further investigation. PMID:27228256

Addressing multi-label imbalance problem of surgical tool detection using CNN.

PubMed

Sahu, Manish; Mukhopadhyay, Anirban; Szengel, Angelika; Zachow, Stefan

2017-06-01

A fully automated surgical tool detection framework is proposed for endoscopic video streams. State-of-the-art surgical tool detection methods rely on supervised one-vs-all or multi-class classification techniques, completely ignoring the co-occurrence relationship of the tools and the associated class imbalance. In this paper, we formulate tool detection as a multi-label classification task where tool co-occurrences are treated as separate classes. In addition, imbalance on tool co-occurrences is analyzed and stratification techniques are employed to address the imbalance during convolutional neural network (CNN) training. Moreover, temporal smoothing is introduced as an online post-processing step to enhance runtime prediction. Quantitative analysis is performed on the M2CAI16 tool detection dataset to highlight the importance of stratification, temporal smoothing and the overall framework for tool detection. The analysis on tool imbalance, backed by the empirical results, indicates the need and superiority of the proposed framework over state-of-the-art techniques.

Molecular alterations and biomarkers in colorectal cancer

PubMed Central

Grady, William M.; Pritchard, Colin C.

2013-01-01

The promise of precision medicine is now a clinical reality. Advances in our understanding of the molecular genetics of colorectal cancer genetics is leading to the development of a variety of biomarkers that are being used as early detection markers, prognostic markers, and markers for predicting treatment responses. This is no more evident than in the recent advances in testing colorectal cancers for specific molecular alterations in order to guide treatment with the monoclonal antibody therapies cetuximab and panitumumab, which target the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR). In this review, we update a prior review published in 2010 and describe our current understanding of the molecular pathogenesis of colorectal cancer and how these alterations relate to emerging biomarkers for early detection and risk stratification (diagnostic markers), prognosis (prognostic markers), and the prediction of treatment responses (predictive markers). PMID:24178577

Which is the optimal risk stratification system for surgically treated localized primary GIST? Comparison of three contemporary prognostic criteria in 171 tumors and a proposal for a modified Armed Forces Institute of Pathology risk criteria.

PubMed

Goh, Brian K P; Chow, Pierce K H; Yap, Wai-Ming; Kesavan, Sittampalam M; Song, In-Chin; Paul, Pradeep G; Ooi, Boon-Swee; Chung, Yaw-Fui A; Wong, Wai-Keong

2008-08-01

This study aims to validate and compare the performance of the National Institute of Health (NIH) criteria, Huang modified NIH criteria, and Armed Forces Institute of Pathology (AFIP) risk criteria for gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) in a large series of localized primary GISTs surgically treated at a single institution to determine the ideal risk stratification system for GIST. The clinicopathological features of 171 consecutive patients who underwent surgical resection for GISTs were retrospectively reviewed. Statistical analyses were performed to compare the prognostic value of the three risk criteria by analyzing the discriminatory ability linear trend, homogeneity, monotonicity of gradients, and Akaike information criteria. The median actuarial recurrence-free survival (RFS) for all 171 patients was 70%. On multivariate analyses, size >10 cm, mitotic count >5/50 high-power field, tumor necrosis, and serosal involvement were independent prognostic factors of RFS. All three risk criteria demonstrated a statistically significant difference in the recurrence rate, median actuarial RFS, actuarial 5-year RFS, and tumor-specific death across the different stages. Comparison of the various risk-stratification systems demonstrated that our proposed modified AFIP criteria had the best independent predictive value of RFS when compared with the other systems. The NIH, modified NIH, and AFIP criteria are useful in the prognostication of GIST, and the AFIP risk criteria provided the best prognostication among the three systems for primary localized GIST. However, remarkable prognostic heterogeneity exists in the AFIP high-risk category, and with our proposed modification, this system provides the most accurate prognostic information.

Risk stratification personalised model for prediction of life-threatening ventricular tachyarrhythmias in patients with chronic heart failure.

PubMed

Frolov, Alexander Vladimirovich; Vaikhanskaya, Tatjana Gennadjevna; Melnikova, Olga Petrovna; Vorobiev, Anatoly Pavlovich; Guel, Ludmila Michajlovna

2017-01-01

The development of prognostic factors of life-threatening ventricular tachyarrhythmias (VTA) and sudden cardiac death (SCD) continues to maintain its priority and relevance in cardiology. The development of a method of personalised prognosis based on multifactorial analysis of the risk factors associated with life-threatening heart rhythm disturbances is considered a key research and clinical task. To design a prognostic and mathematical model to define personalised risk for life-threatening VTA in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). The study included 240 patients with CHF (mean-age of 50.5 ± 12.1 years; left ventricular ejection fraction 32.8 ± 10.9%; follow-up period 36.8 ± 5.7 months). The participants received basic therapy for heart failure. The elec-trocardiogram (ECG) markers of myocardial electrical instability were assessed including microvolt T-wave alternans, heart rate turbulence, heart rate deceleration, and QT dispersion. Additionally, echocardiography and Holter monitoring (HM) were performed. The cardiovascular events were considered as primary endpoints, including SCD, paroxysmal ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation (VT/VF) based on HM-ECG data, and data obtained from implantable device interrogation (CRT-D, ICD) as well as appropriated shocks. During the follow-up period, 66 (27.5%) subjects with CHF showed adverse arrhythmic events, including nine SCD events and 57 VTAs. Data from a stepwise discriminant analysis of cumulative ECG-markers of myocardial electrical instability were used to make a mathematical model of preliminary VTA risk stratification. Uni- and multivariate Cox logistic regression analysis were performed to define an individualised risk stratification model of SCD/VTA. A binary logistic regression model demonstrated a high prognostic significance of discriminant function with a classification sensitivity of 80.8% and specificity of 99.1% (F = 31.2; c2 = 143.2; p < 0.0001). The method of personalised risk stratification using Cox logistic regression allows correct classification of more than 93.9% of CHF cases. A robust body of evidence concerning logistic regression prognostic significance to define VTA risk allows inclusion of this method into the algorithm of subsequent control and selection of the optimal treatment modality to treat patients with CHF.

Current Indications for Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillators in Non-Ischemic Cardiomyopathies and Channelopathies.

PubMed

González-Torrecilla, Esteban; Arenal, Angel; Atienza, Felipe; Datino, Tomás; Bravo, Loreto; Ruiz, Pablo; Ávila, Pablo; Fernández-Avilés, Francisco

2015-01-01

Current indications for implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) in patients with channelopathies and cardiomyopathies of non-ischemic origin are mainly based on non-randomized evidence. In patients with nonischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (NIDCM), there is a tendency towards a beneficial effect on total mortality of ICD therapy in patients with significant left ventricular (LV) dysfunction. Although an important reduction in sudden cardiac death (SCD) seems to be clearly demonstrated in these patients, a net beneficial effect on total mortality is unclear mostly in cases with good functional status. Risk stratification has been changing over the last two decades in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). Its risk profile has been delineated in parallel with the beneficial effect of ICD in high risk patients. Observational results based on "appropriate" ICD interventions do support its usefulness both in primary and secondary SCD prevention in these patients. Novel risk models quantify the rate of sudden cardiac death in these patients on individual basis. Less clear risk stratification is available for cases of arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) and in other uncommon familiar cardiomyopathies. Main features of risk stratification vary among the different channelopathies (long QT syndrome -LQTS-, Brugada syndrome, etc) with great debate on the management of asymptomatic patients. For most familiar cardiomyopathies, ICD therapy is the only accepted strategy in the prevention of SCD. So far, genetic testing has a limited role in risk evaluation and management of the individual patient. This review aims to summarize these criticisms and to refine the current indications of ICD implantation in patients with cardiomyopathies and major channelopathies.

The probability of seizures during EEG monitoring in critically ill adults

PubMed Central

Westover, M. Brandon; Shafi, Mouhsin M.; Bianchi, Matt T.; Moura, Lidia M.V.R.; O’Rourke, Deirdre; Rosenthal, Eric S.; Chu, Catherine J.; Donovan, Samantha; Hoch, Daniel B.; Kilbride, Ronan D.; Cole, Andrew J.; Cash, Sydney S.

2014-01-01

Objective To characterize the risk for seizures over time in relation to EEG findings in hospitalized adults undergoing continuous EEG monitoring (cEEG). Methods Retrospective analysis of cEEG data and medical records from 625 consecutive adult inpatients monitored at a tertiary medical center. Using survival analysis methods, we estimated the time-dependent probability that a seizure will occur within the next 72-h, if no seizure has occurred yet, as a function of EEG abnormalities detected so far. Results Seizures occurred in 27% (168/625). The first seizure occurred early (<30 min of monitoring) in 58% (98/168). In 527 patients without early seizures, 159 (30%) had early epileptiform abnormalities, versus 368 (70%) without. Seizures were eventually detected in 25% of patients with early epileptiform discharges, versus 8% without early discharges. The 72-h risk of seizures declined below 5% if no epileptiform abnormalities were present in the first two hours, whereas 16 h of monitoring were required when epileptiform discharges were present. 20% (74/388) of patients without early epileptiform abnormalities later developed them; 23% (17/74) of these ultimately had seizures. Only 4% (12/294) experienced a seizure without preceding epileptiform abnormalities. Conclusions Seizure risk in acute neurological illness decays rapidly, at a rate dependent on abnormalities detected early during monitoring. This study demonstrates that substantial risk stratification is possible based on early EEG abnormalities. Significance These findings have implications for patient-specific determination of the required duration of cEEG monitoring in hospitalized patients. PMID:25082090

Emergence of molecular imaging of aortic aneurysm; implications for risk stratification and management

PubMed Central

Golestani, Reza; Sadeghi, Mehran M.

2014-01-01

Summary Imaging cellular and molecular processes associated with aneurysm expansion, dissection, and rupture can potentially transform the management of patients with thoracic and abdominal aortic aneurysm (TAA and AAA). Here, we review recent advances in molecular imaging of aortic aneurysm, focusing on imaging modalities with the greatest potential for clinical translation and application, PET, SPECT and MRI. Inflammation (e.g., with 18F-FDG, nanoparticles) and matrix remodeling (e.g., with matrix metalloproteinase-targeted tracers) are highlighted as promising targets for molecular imaging of aneurysm. Potential alternative or complementary approaches to molecular imaging for aneurysm risk stratification are briefly discussed. PMID:24381115

Quantitative modeling of clinical, cellular, and extracellular matrix variables suggest prognostic indicators in cancer: a model in neuroblastoma.

PubMed

Tadeo, Irene; Piqueras, Marta; Montaner, David; Villamón, Eva; Berbegall, Ana P; Cañete, Adela; Navarro, Samuel; Noguera, Rosa

2014-02-01

Risk classification and treatment stratification for cancer patients is restricted by our incomplete picture of the complex and unknown interactions between the patient's organism and tumor tissues (transformed cells supported by tumor stroma). Moreover, all clinical factors and laboratory studies used to indicate treatment effectiveness and outcomes are by their nature a simplification of the biological system of cancer, and cannot yet incorporate all possible prognostic indicators. A multiparametric analysis on 184 tumor cylinders was performed. To highlight the benefit of integrating digitized medical imaging into this field, we present the results of computational studies carried out on quantitative measurements, taken from stromal and cancer cells and various extracellular matrix fibers interpenetrated by glycosaminoglycans, and eight current approaches to risk stratification systems in patients with primary and nonprimary neuroblastoma. New tumor tissue indicators from both fields, the cellular and the extracellular elements, emerge as reliable prognostic markers for risk stratification and could be used as molecular targets of specific therapies. The key to dealing with personalized therapy lies in the mathematical modeling. The use of bioinformatics in patient-tumor-microenvironment data management allows a predictive model in neuroblastoma.

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario.

PubMed

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-04-15

Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches. Applicability and impact of the proposals for enhanced clinical risk assessment require prospective evaluation. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Impact of target organ damage assessment in the evaluation of global risk in patients with essential hypertension.

PubMed

Viazzi, Francesca; Leoncini, Giovanna; Parodi, Denise; Ratto, Elena; Vettoretti, Simone; Vaccaro, Valentina; Parodi, Angelica; Falqui, Valeria; Tomolillo, Cinzia; Deferrari, Giacomo; Pontremoli, Roberto

2005-03-01

Accurate assessment of cardiovascular risk is a key step toward optimizing the treatment of hypertensive patients. We analyzed the impact and cost-effectiveness of routine, thorough assessment of target organ damage (TOD) in evaluating risk profile in hypertension. A total of 380 never-treated patients with essential hypertension underwent routine work-up plus evaluation of albuminuria and ultrasonography of cardiac and vascular structures. The impact of these tests on risk stratification, as indicated by European Society of Hypertension-European Society of Cardiology guidelines, was assessed in light of their cost and sensitivity. The combined use of all of these tests greatly improved the detection of TOD, therefore leading to the identification of a higher percentage of patients who were at high/very high risk, as compared with those who were detected by routine clinical work-up (73% instead of 42%; P < 0.0001). Different signs of TOD only partly cluster within the same subgroup of patients; thus, all three tests should be performed to maximize the sensitivity of the evaluation process. The diagnostic algorithm yielding the lowest cost per detected case of TOD is the search for microalbuminuria, followed by echocardiography and then carotid ultrasonography. Adopting lower cut-off values to define microalbuminuria allows us to optimize further the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic algorithms. In conclusion, because of its low cost and widespread availability, measuring albuminuria is an attractive and cost-effective screening test that is especially suitable as the first step in the large-scale diagnostic work-up of hypertensive patients.

Economic assessment of home-based COPD management programs.

PubMed

Liu, Sheena Xin; Lee, Michael C; Atakhorrami, Maryam; Tatousek, Jan; McCormack, Meredith; Yung, Rex; Hart, Nicholas; White, David P

2013-12-01

Home-based exacerbation management programs have been proposed as an approach to reducing the clinical and financial burden of COPD. We demonstrate a framework to evaluate such programs in order to guide program design and performance decisions towards optimizing cost and clinical outcomes. This study models the impact of hypothetical exacerbation management programs through probabilistic Markov simulations. Patients were stratified by risk using exacerbation rates from the ECLIPSE study and expert opinion. Three scenarios were modeled, using base, worst and best case parameters to suggest potential telehealth program performance. In these scenarios, acute exacerbations could be detected early, with sensitivity and specificity ranging from 60-90%. Detected acute exacerbations could be diverted to either a sub-acute pathway (12.5-50% probability), thus entirely avoiding hospitalization, or a lower cost pathway through length-of-stay reduction (14-28% reduction). For a cohort of patients without prior hospitalization, the base case telehealth scenario results in a cumulative per-patient lifetime savings of $2.9 K over ≈ 12 years. For a higher risk cohort of patients with a prior admission and 1 to 2 acute exacerbations per year, a cumulative $16K per patient was saved during the remaining ≈ 3 life-years. Acceptable prices for home-based exacerbation detection testing were highly dependent on patient risk and scenario, but ranged from $290-$1263 per month for the highest risk groups. These results suggest the economic viability of exacerbation management programs and highlight the importance of risk stratification in such programs. The presented model can further be adapted to model specific programs as trial data becomes available.

Detection of human papillomavirus 16, 18, and 45 in women with ASC-US cytology and the risk of cervical precancer: results from the CLEAR HPV study.

PubMed

Castle, Phillip E; Cuzick, Jack; Stoler, Mark H; Wright, Thomas C; Reid, Jennifer L; Dockter, Janel; Giachetti, Cristina; Getman, Damon

2015-02-01

The Aptima human papillomavirus (HPV) 16 18/45 Genotype (GT) assay (AHPV-GT) is a qualitative E6/ E7 oncogene messenger RNA test that detects HPV 16 and a pool of HPV 18 and 45. The CLEAR (Clinical Evaluation of APTIMA mRNA) study was the pivotal, prospective, multicenter US clinical study to validate the Aptima HPV (AHPV) assays. In this analysis, we evaluated the clinical performance of AHPV and AHPV-GT assays for detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or more severe (CIN2 +) and grade 3 (CIN3) or adenocarcinoma in situ in 912 women with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US) Papanicolaou result. The AHPV-GT assay was performed on high-risk HPV (hrHPV) positives as determined by the AHPV assay. Overall, the percent positive for hrHPV was 38.8% (354/912), of which 34.2% (121/354) were GT positive. Among hrHPV-positive women, the risks of CIN2 + were 37.0% for HPV 16 positives, 15.9% for HPV 18/45 positives, 14.3% for other hrHPV positives, and 2.2% for AHPV negatives. The risks of CIN3 + were 20.5% for HPV 16 positives, 9.1% for HPV 18/45 positives, 4.3% for other hrHPV positives, and 0.7% for HPV negatives. We demonstrated that AHPV-GT is a reliable and effective test for cervical cancer risk stratification in women with an ASC-US cytology diagnosis. Copyright© by the American Society for Clinical Pathology.

HPV-Testing in Follow-up of Patients Treated for CIN2+ Lesions

PubMed Central

Mariani, Luciano; Sandri, Maria Teresa; Preti, Mario; Origoni, Massimo; Costa, Silvano; Cristoforoni, Paolo; Bottari, Fabio; Sideri, Mario

2016-01-01

Persistent positivity of HPV-DNA testing is considered a prognostic index of recurrent disease in patients treated for CIN2+. HPV detection, and particularly genotyping, has an adequate high rate of sensitivity and specificity (along with an optimal reproducibility), for accurately predicting treatment failure, allowing for an intensified monitoring activity. Conversely, women with a negative HPV-test 6 months after therapy have a very low risk for residual/recurrent disease, which leads to a more individualized follow-up schedule, allowing for a gradual return to the normal screening scheme. HPV testing should be routinely included (with or without cytology) in post-treatment follow-up of CIN2+ patients for early detection of recurrence and cancer progression. HPV genotyping methods, as a biological indicator of persistent disease, could be more suitable for a predictive role and risk stratification (particularly in the case of HPV 16/18 persistence) than pooled HPV-based testing. However, it is necessary to be aware of the performance of the system, adhering to strict standardization of the process and quality assurance criteria. PMID:26722366

Validation of the 2014 European Society of Cardiology guidelines risk prediction model for the primary prevention of sudden cardiac death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Vriesendorp, Pieter A; Schinkel, Arend F L; Liebregts, Max; Theuns, Dominic A M J; van Cleemput, Johan; Ten Cate, Folkert J; Willems, Rik; Michels, Michelle

2015-08-01

The recently released 2014 European Society of Cardiology guidelines of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) use a new clinical risk prediction model for sudden cardiac death (SCD), based on the HCM Risk-SCD study. Our study is the first external and independent validation of this new risk prediction model. The study population consisted of a consecutive cohort of 706 patients with HCM without prior SCD event, from 2 tertiary referral centers. The primary end point was a composite of SCD and appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator therapy, identical to the HCM Risk-SCD end point. The 5-year SCD risk was calculated using the HCM Risk-SCD formula. Receiver operating characteristic curves and C-statistics were calculated for the 2014 European Society of Cardiology guidelines, and risk stratification methods of the 2003 American College of Cardiology/European Society of Cardiology guidelines and 2011 American College of Cardiology Foundation/American Heart Association guidelines. During follow-up of 7.7±5.3 years, SCD occurred in 42 (5.9%) of 706 patients (ages 49±16 years; 34% women). The C-statistic of the new model was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.57-0.82; P=0.008), which performed significantly better than the conventional risk factor models based on the 2003 guidelines (C-statistic of 0.55: 95% CI, 0.47-0.63; P=0.3), and 2011 guidelines (C-statistic of 0.60: 95% CI, 0.50-0.70; P=0.07). The HCM Risk-SCD model improves the risk stratification of patients with HCM for primary prevention of SCD, and calculating an individual risk estimate contributes to the clinical decision-making process. Improved risk stratification is important for the decision making before implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation for the primary prevention of SCD. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

From Statistical Significance to Clinical Relevance: A Simple Algorithm to Integrate BNP and the Seattle Heart Failure Model for Risk Stratification in Heart Failure

PubMed Central

AbouEzzeddine, Omar F.; French, Benjamin; Mirzoyev, Sultan A.; Jaffe, Allan S; Levy, Wayne C.; Fang, James C.; Sweitzer, Nancy K.; Cappola, Thomas P.; Redfield, Margaret M.

2016-01-01

Background Heart failure (HF) guidelines recommend brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and multivariable risk-scores such as the Seattle HF Model (SHFM) to predict risk in HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). A practical way to integrate information from these two prognostic tools is lacking. We sought to establish a SHFM+BNP risk-stratification algorithm. Methods The retrospective derivation cohort included consecutive patients with HFrEF at Mayo. One-year outcome (death, transplantation or ventricular assist device) was assessed. The SHFM+BNP algorithm was derived by stratifying patients within SHFM-predicted risk categories (≤2.5%, 2.6–≤10%, >10%) according to BNP above or below 700 pg/mL and comparing SHFM-predicted and observed event rates within each SHFM+BNP category. The algorithm was validated in a prospective, multicenter HFrEF registry (Penn HF Study). Results Derivation (n=441; one-year event rate 17%) and validation (n=1513; one-year event rate 12%) cohorts differed with the former being older and more likely ischemic with worse symptoms, lower EF, worse renal function, higher BNP and SHFM scores. In both cohorts, across the three SHFM-predicted risk strata, a BNP>700 pg/ml consistently identified patients with approximately three-fold the risk that the SHFM would have otherwise estimated regardless stage of HF, intensity and duration of HF-therapy, and comorbidities. Conversely, the SHFM was appropriately calibrated in patients with a BNP<700 pg/ml. Conclusion The simple SHFM+BNP algorithm displays stable performance across diverse HFrEF cohorts and may enhance risk stratification to enable appropriate decisions regarding HF therapeutic or palliative strategies. PMID:27021278

Clinical potentials of methylator phenotype in stage 4 high-risk neuroblastoma: an open challenge.

PubMed

Banelli, Barbara; Merlo, Domenico Franco; Allemanni, Giorgio; Forlani, Alessandra; Romani, Massimo

2013-01-01

Approximately 20% of stage 4 high-risk neuroblastoma patients are alive and disease-free 5 years after disease onset while the remaining experience rapid and fatal progression. Numerous findings underline the prognostic role of methylation of defined target genes in neuroblastoma without taking into account the clinical and biological heterogeneity of this disease. In this report we have investigated the methylation of the PCDHB cluster, the most informative member of the "Methylator Phenotype" in neuroblastoma, hypothesizing that if this epigenetic mark can predict overall and progression free survival in high-risk stage 4 neuroblastoma, it could be utilized to improve the risk stratification of the patients, alone or in conjunction with the previously identified methylation of the SFN gene (14.3.3sigma) that can accurately predict outcome in these patients. We have utilized univariate and multivariate models to compare the prognostic power of PCDHB methylation in terms of overall and progression free survival, quantitatively determined by pyrosequencing, with that of other markers utilized for the patients' stratification utilizing methylation thresholds calculated on neuroblastoma at stage 1-4 and only on stage 4, high-risk patients. Our results indicate that PCDHB accurately distinguishes between high- and intermediate/low risk stage 4 neuroblastoma in agreement with the established risk stratification criteria. However PCDHB cannot predict outcome in the subgroup of stage 4 patients at high-risk whereas methylation levels of SFN are suggestive of a "methylation gradient" associated with tumor aggressiveness as suggested by the finding of a higher threshold that defines a subset of patients with an extremely severe disease (OS <24 months). Because of the heterogeneity of neuroblastoma we believe that clinically relevant methylation markers should be selected and tested on homogeneous groups of patients rather than on patients at all stages.

Combining risk markers improves cardiovascular risk prediction in women.

PubMed

Holewijn, Suzanne; den Heijer, Martin; Kiemeney, Lambertus A; Stalenhoef, Anton F H; de Graaf, Jacqueline

2014-01-01

Cardiovascular risk stratification could be improved by adding measures of atherosclerosis to current risk scores, especially in intermediate-risk individuals. We prospectively evaluated the additive value of different non-invasive risk markers (both individual and combined) for gender-specific cardiovascular risk stratification on top of traditional risk factors in a middle-aged population-based cohort. Carotid-plaques, IMT (intima-media thickness), ABI (ankle-brachial index), PWV (pulse-wave velocity), AIx (augmentation index), CAP (central augmented pressure) and CSP (central-systolic pressure) were measured in 1367 CVD (cardiovascular disease)-free participants aged 50-70 years old. Cardiovascular events were validated after a mean follow-up of 3.8 years. AUC (area-under-the-curve) and NRI (net reclassification improvement) analyses (total-NRI for all and clinical-NRI for intermediate-risk groups) were used to determine the additive value of individual and combined risk markers. Cardiovascular events occurred in 32 women and 39 men. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors explained 6.2% and 12.5% of the variance in CVD in women and men respectively. AUCs did not substantially increase by adding individual or combined non-invasive risk markers. Individual risk markers only improved reclassification in intermediate-risk women and more than in men; clinical-NRIs ranged between 48.0 and 173.1% in women and 8.9 and 20% in men. Combined non-invasive-risk markers improved reclassification in all women and even more in those at intermediate risk; 'IMT-presence-thickness-of-plaques' showed largest reclassification [total-NRI=33.8%, P=0.012; IDI (integrated-discrimination-improvement)=0.048, P=0.066; clinical-NRI=168.0%]. In men, combined non-invasive risk markers improved reclassification only in those at intermediate risk; 'PWV-AIx-CSP-CAP-IMT' showed the largest reclassification (total-NRI=14.5%, P=0.087; IDI=0.016, P=0.148; clinical-NRI=46.0%). In all women, cardiovascular risk stratification improved by adding combinations and in women at intermediate risk also by adding individual non-invasive risk markers. The additive value of individual and combined non-invasive risk markers in men is limited to men at intermediate risk only, and to a lesser extent than in women.

Overcoming intratumoural heterogeneity for reproducible molecular risk stratification: a case study in advanced kidney cancer.

PubMed

Lubbock, Alexander L R; Stewart, Grant D; O'Mahony, Fiach C; Laird, Alexander; Mullen, Peter; O'Donnell, Marie; Powles, Thomas; Harrison, David J; Overton, Ian M

2017-06-26

Metastatic clear cell renal cell cancer (mccRCC) portends a poor prognosis and urgently requires better clinical tools for prognostication as well as for prediction of response to treatment. Considerable investment in molecular risk stratification has sought to overcome the performance ceiling encountered by methods restricted to traditional clinical parameters. However, replication of results has proven challenging, and intratumoural heterogeneity (ITH) may confound attempts at tissue-based stratification. We investigated the influence of confounding ITH on the performance of a novel molecular prognostic model, enabled by pathologist-guided multiregion sampling (n = 183) of geographically separated mccRCC cohorts from the SuMR trial (development, n = 22) and the SCOTRRCC study (validation, n = 22). Tumour protein levels quantified by reverse phase protein array (RPPA) were investigated alongside clinical variables. Regularised wrapper selection identified features for Cox multivariate analysis with overall survival as the primary endpoint. The optimal subset of variables in the final stratification model consisted of N-cadherin, EPCAM, Age, mTOR (NEAT). Risk groups from NEAT had a markedly different prognosis in the validation cohort (log-rank p = 7.62 × 10 -7 ; hazard ratio (HR) 37.9, 95% confidence interval 4.1-353.8) and 2-year survival rates (accuracy = 82%, Matthews correlation coefficient = 0.62). Comparisons with established clinico-pathological scores suggest favourable performance for NEAT (Net reclassification improvement 7.1% vs International Metastatic Database Consortium score, 25.4% vs Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center score). Limitations include the relatively small cohorts and associated wide confidence intervals on predictive performance. Our multiregion sampling approach enabled investigation of NEAT validation when limiting the number of samples analysed per tumour, which significantly degraded performance. Indeed, sample selection could change risk group assignment for 64% of patients, and prognostication with one sample per patient performed only slightly better than random expectation (median logHR = 0.109). Low grade tissue was associated with 3.5-fold greater variation in predicted risk than high grade (p = 0.044). This case study in mccRCC quantitatively demonstrates the critical importance of tumour sampling for the success of molecular biomarker studies research where ITH is a factor. The NEAT model shows promise for mccRCC prognostication and warrants follow-up in larger cohorts. Our work evidences actionable parameters to guide sample collection (tumour coverage, size, grade) to inform the development of reproducible molecular risk stratification methods.

Detectable end of radiation prostate specific antigen assists in identifying men with unfavorable intermediate-risk prostate cancer at high risk of distant recurrence and cancer-specific mortality.

PubMed

Hayman, Jonathan; Phillips, Ryan; Chen, Di; Perin, Jamie; Narang, Amol K; Trieu, Janson; Radwan, Noura; Greco, Stephen; Deville, Curtiland; McNutt, Todd; Song, Daniel Y; DeWeese, Theodore L; Tran, Phuoc T

2018-06-01

Undetectable End of Radiation PSA (EOR-PSA) has been shown to predict improved survival in prostate cancer (PCa). While validating the unfavorable intermediate-risk (UIR) and favorable intermediate-risk (FIR) stratifications among Johns Hopkins PCa patients treated with radiotherapy, we examined whether EOR-PSA could further risk stratify UIR men for survival. A total of 302 IR patients were identified in the Johns Hopkins PCa database (178 UIR, 124 FIR). Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariable analysis was performed via Cox regression for biochemical recurrence free survival (bRFS), distant metastasis free survival (DMFS), and overall survival (OS), while a competing risks model was used for PCa specific survival (PCSS). Among the 235 patients with known EOR-PSA values, we then stratified by EOR-PSA and performed the aforementioned analysis. The median follow-up time was 11.5 years (138 months). UIR was predictive of worse DMFS and PCSS (P = 0.008 and P = 0.023) on multivariable analysis (MVA). Increased radiation dose was significant for improved DMFS (P = 0.016) on MVA. EOR-PSA was excluded from the models because it did not trend towards significance as a continuous or binary variable due to interaction with UIR, and we were unable to converge a multivariable model with a variable to control for this interaction. However, when stratifying by detectable versus undetectable EOR-PSA, UIR had worse DMFS and PCSS among detectable EOR-PSA patients, but not undetectable patients. UIR was significant on MVA among detectable EOR-PSA patients for DMFS (P = 0.021) and PCSS (P = 0.033), while RT dose also predicted PCSS (P = 0.013). EOR-PSA can assist in predicting DMFS and PCSS among UIR patients, suggesting a clinically meaningful time point for considering intensification of treatment in clinical trials of intermediate-risk men. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Mitochondrial DNA Haplogroups and the Risk of Sporadic Parkinson's Disease in Han Chinese

PubMed Central

Chen, Ya-Fang; Chen, Wan-Jin; Lin, Xiao-Zhen; Zhang, Qi-Jie; Cai, Jiang-Ping; Liou, Chia-Wei; Wang, Ning

2015-01-01

Background: Mitochondrial dysfunction is linked to the pathogenesis of Parkinson's disease (PD). However, the precise role of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variations is obscure. On the other hand, mtDNA haplogroups have been inconsistently reported to modify the risk of PD among different population. Here, we try to explore the relationship between mtDNA haplogroups and sporadic PD in a Han Chinese population. Methods: Nine single-nucleotide polymorphisms, which define the major Asian mtDNA haplogroups (A, B, C, D, F, G), were detected via polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism or denaturing polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis in 279 sporadic PD patients and 510 matched controls of Han population. Results: Overall, the distribution of mtDNA haplogroups did not show any significant differences between patients and controls. However, after stratification by age at onset, the frequency of haplogroup B was significantly lower in patients with early-onset PD (EOPD) compared to the controls (odds ratio [OR] =0.225, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.082–0.619, P = 0.004), while other haplogroups did not show significant differences. After stratification by age at examination, among subjects younger than 50 years of age: Haplogroup B also showed a lower frequency in PD cases (OR = 0.146, 95% CI: 0.030–0.715, P = 0.018) while haplogroup D presented a higher risk of PD (OR = 3.579, 95% CI: 1.112–11.523, P = 0.033), other haplogroups also did not show significant differences in the group. Conclusions: Our study indicates that haplogroup B might confer a lower risk for EOPD and people younger than 50 years in Han Chinese, while haplogroup D probably lead a higher risk of PD in people younger than 50 years of age. In brief, particular Asian mtDNA haplogroups likely play a role in the pathogenesis of PD among Han Chinese. PMID:26112715

Risk Stratification of Acute Kidney Injury Using the Blood Urea Nitrogen/Creatinine Ratio in Patients With Acute Decompensated Heart Failure.

PubMed

Takaya, Yoichi; Yoshihara, Fumiki; Yokoyama, Hiroyuki; Kanzaki, Hideaki; Kitakaze, Masafumi; Goto, Yoichi; Anzai, Toshihisa; Yasuda, Satoshi; Ogawa, Hisao; Kawano, Yuhei

2015-01-01

Risk stratification of acute kidney injury (AKI) is important for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). The aim of this study was to determine whether clinical markers, such as the blood urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio (BUN/Cr) or BUN or creatinine values alone, stratify the risk of AKI for mortality. In all, 371 consecutive ADHF patients were enrolled in the study. AKI was defined as serum creatinine ≥0.3 mg/dl or a 1.5-fold increase in serum creatinine levels within 48 h. During ADHF therapy, AKI occurred in 99 patients; 55 patients died during the 12-month follow-up period. Grouping patients according to AKI and a median BUN/Cr at admission of 22.1 (non-AKI+low BUN/Cr, non-AKI+high BUN/Cr, AKI+low BUN/Cr, and AKI+high BUN/Cr groups) revealed higher mortality in the AKI+high BUN/Cr group (log-rank test, P<0.001). Cox's proportional hazard analysis revealed an association between AKI+high BUN/Cr and mortality, whereas the association with AKI+low BUN/Cr did not reach statistical significance. When patients were grouped according to AKI and median BUN or creatinine values at admission, AKI was associated with mortality, regardless of BUN or creatinine. The combination of AKI and elevated BUN/Cr, but not BUN or creatinine individually, is linked with an increased risk of mortality in ADHF patients, suggesting that the BUN/Cr is useful for risk stratification of AKI.

Molecular reclassification of Crohn's disease: a cautionary note on population stratification.

PubMed

Maus, Bärbel; Jung, Camille; Mahachie John, Jestinah M; Hugot, Jean-Pierre; Génin, Emmanuelle; Van Steen, Kristel

2013-01-01

Complex human diseases commonly differ in their phenotypic characteristics, e.g., Crohn's disease (CD) patients are heterogeneous with regard to disease location and disease extent. The genetic susceptibility to Crohn's disease is widely acknowledged and has been demonstrated by identification of over 100 CD associated genetic loci. However, relating CD subphenotypes to disease susceptible loci has proven to be a difficult task. In this paper we discuss the use of cluster analysis on genetic markers to identify genetic-based subgroups while taking into account possible confounding by population stratification. We show that it is highly relevant to consider the confounding nature of population stratification in order to avoid that detected clusters are strongly related to population groups instead of disease-specific groups. Therefore, we explain the use of principal components to correct for population stratification while clustering affected individuals into genetic-based subgroups. The principal components are obtained using 30 ancestry informative markers (AIM), and the first two PCs are determined to discriminate between continental origins of the affected individuals. Genotypes on 51 CD associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are used to perform latent class analysis, hierarchical and Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM) cluster analysis within a sample of affected individuals with and without the use of principal components to adjust for population stratification. It is seen that without correction for population stratification clusters seem to be influenced by population stratification while with correction clusters are unrelated to continental origin of individuals.

Molecular Reclassification of Crohn’s Disease: A Cautionary Note on Population Stratification

PubMed Central

Maus, Bärbel; Jung, Camille; Mahachie John, Jestinah M.; Hugot, Jean-Pierre; Génin, Emmanuelle; Van Steen, Kristel

2013-01-01

Complex human diseases commonly differ in their phenotypic characteristics, e.g., Crohn’s disease (CD) patients are heterogeneous with regard to disease location and disease extent. The genetic susceptibility to Crohn’s disease is widely acknowledged and has been demonstrated by identification of over 100 CD associated genetic loci. However, relating CD subphenotypes to disease susceptible loci has proven to be a difficult task. In this paper we discuss the use of cluster analysis on genetic markers to identify genetic-based subgroups while taking into account possible confounding by population stratification. We show that it is highly relevant to consider the confounding nature of population stratification in order to avoid that detected clusters are strongly related to population groups instead of disease-specific groups. Therefore, we explain the use of principal components to correct for population stratification while clustering affected individuals into genetic-based subgroups. The principal components are obtained using 30 ancestry informative markers (AIM), and the first two PCs are determined to discriminate between continental origins of the affected individuals. Genotypes on 51 CD associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are used to perform latent class analysis, hierarchical and Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM) cluster analysis within a sample of affected individuals with and without the use of principal components to adjust for population stratification. It is seen that without correction for population stratification clusters seem to be influenced by population stratification while with correction clusters are unrelated to continental origin of individuals. PMID:24147066

Cardiac Magnetic Resonance-Verified Myocardial Fibrosis in Chagas Disease: Clinical Correlates and Risk Stratification

PubMed Central

Uellendahl, Marly; de Siqueira, Maria Eduarda Menezes; Calado, Eveline Barros; Kalil-Filho, Roberto; Sobral, Dário; Ribeiro, Clébia; Oliveira, Wilson; Martins, Silvia; Narula, Jagat; Rochitte, Carlos Eduardo

2016-01-01

Background Chagas disease (CD) is an important cause of heart failure and mortality, mainly in Latin America. This study evaluated the morphological and functional characteristics of the heart as well the extent of myocardial fibrosis (MF) in patients with CD by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR). The prognostic value of MF evaluated by myocardial-delayed enhancement (MDE) was compared with that via Rassi score. Methods This study assessed 39 patients divided into 2 groups: 28 asymptomatic patients as indeterminate form group (IND); and symptomatic patients as Chagas Heart Disease (CHD) group. All patients underwent CMR using the techniques of cine-MRI and MDE, and the amount of MF was compared with the Rassi score. Results Regarding the morphological and functional analysis, significant differences were observed between both groups (p < 0.001). Furthermore, there was a strong correlation between the extent of MF and the Rassi score (r = 0.76). Conclusions CMR is an important technique for evaluating patients with CD, stressing morphological and functional differences in all clinical presentations. The strong correlation with the Rassi score and the extent of MF detected by CMR emphasizes its role in the prognostic stratification of patients with CD. PMID:27982271

All men with vasculogenic erectile dysfunction require a cardiovascular workup.

PubMed

Miner, Martin; Nehra, Ajay; Jackson, Graham; Bhasin, Shalender; Billups, Kevin; Burnett, Arthur L; Buvat, Jacques; Carson, Culley; Cunningham, Glenn; Ganz, Peter; Goldstein, Irwin; Guay, Andre; Hackett, Geoff; Kloner, Robert A; Kostis, John B; LaFlamme, K Elizabeth; Montorsi, Piero; Ramsey, Melinda; Rosen, Raymond; Sadovsky, Richard; Seftel, Allen; Shabsigh, Ridwan; Vlachopoulos, Charalambos; Wu, Frederick

2014-03-01

An association between erectile dysfunction and cardiovascular disease has long been recognized, and studies suggest that erectile dysfunction is an independent marker of cardiovascular disease risk. Therefore, assessment and management of erectile dysfunction may help identify and reduce the risk of future cardiovascular events, particularly in younger men. The initial erectile dysfunction evaluation should distinguish between predominantly vasculogenic erectile dysfunction and erectile dysfunction of other etiologies. For men believed to have predominantly vasculogenic erectile dysfunction, we recommend that initial cardiovascular risk stratification be based on the Framingham Risk Score. Management of men with erectile dysfunction who are at low risk for cardiovascular disease should focus on risk-factor control; men at high risk, including those with cardiovascular symptoms, should be referred to a cardiologist. Intermediate-risk men should undergo noninvasive evaluation for subclinical atherosclerosis. A growing body of evidence supports the use of emerging prognostic markers to further understand cardiovascular risk in men with erectile dysfunction, but few markers have been prospectively evaluated in this population. In conclusion, we support cardiovascular risk stratification and risk-factor management in all men with vasculogenic erectile dysfunction. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting relapse risk in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia.

PubMed

Teachey, David T; Hunger, Stephen P

2013-09-01

Intensive multi-agent chemotherapy regimens and the introduction of risk-stratified therapy have substantially improved cure rates for children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL). Current risk allocation schemas are imperfect, as some children are classified as lower-risk and treated with less intensive therapy relapse, while others deemed higher-risk are probably over-treated. Most cooperative groups previously used morphological clearance of blasts in blood and marrow during the initial phases of chemotherapy as a primary factor for risk group allocation; however, this has largely been replaced by the detection of minimal residual disease (MRD). Other than age and white blood cell count (WBC) at presentation, many clinical variables previously used for risk group allocation are no longer prognostic, as MRD and the presence of sentinel genetic lesions are more reliable at predicting outcome. Currently, a number of sentinel genetic lesions are used by most cooperative groups for risk stratification; however, in the near future patients will probably be risk-stratified using genomic signatures and clustering algorithms, rather than individual genetic alterations. This review will describe the clinical, biological, and response-based features known to predict relapse risk in childhood ALL, including those currently used and those likely to be used in the near future to risk-stratify therapy. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Externalizing depression symptoms among Canadian males with recent suicidal ideation: A focus on young men.

PubMed

Rice, Simon M; Kealy, David; Oliffe, John L; Ogrodniczuk, John S

2018-04-30

The primary aim was to quantify, relative to older men, young men's externalizing of depression symptoms and past-month suicidal ideation. A non-probability national sample of 1000 Canadian men self-reported internalizing and externalizing symptoms of depression and past-month suicidal ideation. Stratification quotas reflected Canadian census data to age and region. Young men (18-25 years) were at markedly higher risk of past-month suicidal ideation than were older men. When controlling for internalizing depression, a multivariate age × recent suicidal ideation interaction indicated higher externalizing of depression symptoms in young men relative to older men, especially for those reporting recent suicidal ideation (P < .001). Interactions were observed for drug use, anger and aggression, and risk-taking domains. A sizable proportion of younger men were uniquely identified by the MDRS-22. Screening tools that include assessment of externalizing symptoms may assist in improving detection of distress and suicide risk in young men. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Prognostic and Added Value of Two-Dimensional Global Longitudinal Strain for Prediction of Survival in Patients with Light Chain Amyloidosis Undergoing Autologous Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation.

PubMed

Pun, Shawn C; Landau, Heather J; Riedel, Elyn R; Jordan, Jonathan; Yu, Anthony F; Hassoun, Hani; Chen, Carol L; Steingart, Richard M; Liu, Jennifer E

2018-01-01

Autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is a first-line therapy for prolonging survival in patients with light-chain (AL) amyloidosis. Cardiac involvement is the most important determinant of survival. However, patients with advanced cardiac involvement have often been excluded from HCT because of high risk for transplantation-related mortality and poor overall survival. Whether baseline left ventricular global longitudinal strain (GLS) can provide additional risk stratification and predict survival after HCT in this high-risk population remains unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic implication of baseline GLS and the added value of GLS beyond circulating cardiac biomarkers for risk stratification in patients with AL amyloidosis undergoing HCT. Eighty-two patients with newly diagnosed AL amyloidosis who underwent upfront HCT between January 2007 and April 2014 were included in the study. Clinical, echocardiographic, and serum cardiac biomarker data were collected at baseline and 12 months following HCT. GLS measurements were performed using a vendor-independent offline system. The median follow-up time for survivors was 58 months. Sixty-four percent of patients were in biomarker-based Mayo stage II or III. GLS, brain natriuretic peptide, troponin, and mitral E/A ratio were identified as the strongest predictors of survival (P < .0001). Other predictors included sex, creatinine, free AL, wall thickness, and ejection fraction. Mayo stage was significantly associated with outcome, with 5-year survival of 93%, 72% and 31% in stage I, II, and III patients, respectively. GLS of 17% was identified as the value that best discriminated survivors from nonsurvivors, and the application of this cutoff value provided further mortality risk stratification within each Mayo stage. GLS is a strong predictor of survival in patients with AL amyloidosis undergoing HCT, potentially providing incremental value over serum cardiac biomarkers for risk stratification. GLS should be considered as a standard parameter along with serum cardiac biomarkers when evaluating eligibility for HCT or other investigational therapies. Copyright © 2017 American Society of Echocardiography. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Diagnostic and prognostic stratification in the emergency department using urinary biomarkers of nephron damage: a multicenter prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Nickolas, Thomas L; Schmidt-Ott, Kai M; Canetta, Pietro; Forster, Catherine; Singer, Eugenia; Sise, Meghan; Elger, Antje; Maarouf, Omar; Sola-Del Valle, David Antonio; O'Rourke, Matthew; Sherman, Evan; Lee, Peter; Geara, Abdallah; Imus, Philip; Guddati, Achuta; Polland, Allison; Rahman, Wasiq; Elitok, Saban; Malik, Nasir; Giglio, James; El-Sayegh, Suzanne; Devarajan, Prasad; Hebbar, Sudarshan; Saggi, Subodh J; Hahn, Barry; Kettritz, Ralph; Luft, Friedrich C; Barasch, Jonathan

2012-01-17

This study aimed to determine the diagnostic and prognostic value of urinary biomarkers of intrinsic acute kidney injury (AKI) when patients were triaged in the emergency department. Intrinsic AKI is associated with nephron injury and results in poor clinical outcomes. Several urinary biomarkers have been proposed to detect and measure intrinsic AKI. In a multicenter prospective cohort study, 5 urinary biomarkers (urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, kidney injury molecule-1, urinary liver-type fatty acid binding protein, urinary interleukin-18, and cystatin C) were measured in 1,635 unselected emergency department patients at the time of hospital admission. We determined whether the biomarkers diagnosed intrinsic AKI and predicted adverse outcomes during hospitalization. All biomarkers were elevated in intrinsic AKI, but urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin was most useful (81% specificity, 68% sensitivity at a 104-ng/ml cutoff) and predictive of the severity and duration of AKI. Intrinsic AKI was strongly associated with adverse in-hospital outcomes. Urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin and urinary kidney injury molecule 1 predicted a composite outcome of dialysis initiation or death during hospitalization, and both improved the net risk classification compared with conventional assessments. These biomarkers also identified a substantial subpopulation with low serum creatinine at hospital admission, but who were at risk of adverse events. Urinary biomarkers of nephron damage enable prospective diagnostic and prognostic stratification in the emergency department. Copyright © 2012 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Diagnostic and Prognostic Stratification in the Emergency Department Using Urinary Biomarkers of Nephron Damage

PubMed Central

Nickolas, Thomas L.; Schmidt-Ott, Kai M.; Canetta, Pietro; Forster, Catherine; Singer, Eugenia; Sise, Meghan; Elger, Antje; Maarouf, Omar; Sola-Del Valle, David Antonio; O'Rourke, Matthew; Sherman, Evan; Lee, Peter; Geara, Abdallah; Imus, Philip; Guddati, Achuta; Polland, Allison; Rahman, Wasiq; Elitok, Saban; Malik, Nasir; Giglio, James; El-Sayegh, Suzanne; Devarajan, Prasad; Hebbar, Sudarshan; Saggi, Subodh J.; Hahn, Barry; Kettritz, Ralph; Luft, Friedrich C.; Barasch, Jonathan

2012-01-01

Objectives This study aimed to determine the diagnostic and prognostic value of urinary biomarkers of intrinsic acute kidney injury (AKI) when patients were triaged in the emergency department. Background Intrinsic AKI is associated with nephron injury and results in poor clinical outcomes. Several urinary biomarkers have been proposed to detect and measure intrinsic AKI. Methods In a multicenter prospective cohort study, 5 urinary biomarkers (urinary neutrophil gelatinase–associated lipocalin, kidney injury molecule-1, urinary liver-type fatty acid binding protein, urinary interleukin-18, and cystatin C) were measured in 1,635 unselected emergency department patients at the time of hospital admission. We determined whether the biomarkers diagnosed intrinsic AKI and predicted adverse outcomes during hospitalization. Results All biomarkers were elevated in intrinsic AKI, but urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin was most useful (81% specificity, 68% sensitivity at a 104-ng/ml cutoff) and predictive of the severity and duration of AKI. Intrinsic AKI was strongly associated with adverse in-hospital outcomes. Urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin and urinary kidney injury molecule 1 predicted a composite outcome of dialysis initiation or death during hospitalization, and both improved the net risk classification compared with conventional assessments. These biomarkers also identified a substantial subpopulation with low serum creatinine at hospital admission, but who were at risk of adverse events. Conclusion Urinary biomarkers of nephron damage enable prospective diagnostic and prognostic stratification in the emergency department. PMID:22240130

Combined use of endometrial sample and magnetic resonance imaging in the preoperative risk-stratification of endometrial carcinomas.

PubMed

Luomaranta, Anna; Bützow, Ralf; Pauna, Arja-Riitta; Leminen, Arto; Loukovaara, Mikko

2015-01-01

To compare two treatment strategies in women undergoing surgery for endometrial carcinoma. Retrospective cohort study. Tertiary care center. 1166 patients. Uterine biopsy/curettage was obtained in 1140 women, of whom 229 also had pelvic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). We compared two strategies: (i) routine pelvic lymphadenectomy and (ii) selective pelvic lymphadenectomy for women with high-risk carcinomas as determined from preoperative histology and MRI. High-risk carcinomas included grade 1-2 endometrioid carcinomas with ≥50% myometrial invasion, grade 3 endometrioid carcinomas, and nonendometrioid carcinomas. Others were considered low-risk carcinomas. Diagnostic indices, treatment algorithms. Of the women who underwent lymphadenectomy, positive pelvic nodes were found in 2.3% of low-risk carcinomas and 18.3% of high-risk carcinomas. The combination of preoperative histology and MRI detected high-risk carcinomas with a sensitivity of 85.7%, a specificity of 75.0%, a positive predictive value of 74.4%, and a negative predictive value of 86.1%. Area under curve was 0.804. In the routine lymphadenectomy algorithm, 54.1% of lymphadenectomies were performed for low-risk carcinomas. In the selective lymphadenectomy algorithm, 14.3% of women with high-risk carcinomas did not receive lymphadenectomy. Missed positive pelvic nodes were estimated to occur in 2.1% of patients in the selective strategy. Similarly, the estimated risk for isolated para-aortic metastasis was 2.1%, regardless of treatment strategy. The combination of preoperative histology and MRI is moderately sensitive and specific in detecting high-risk endometrial carcinomas. The clinical utility of the method is hampered by the relatively high proportion of high-risk cases that remain unrecognized preoperatively. © 2014 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Maximization of the usage of coronary CTA derived plaque information using a machine learning based algorithm to improve risk stratification; insights from the CONFIRM registry.

PubMed

van Rosendael, Alexander R; Maliakal, Gabriel; Kolli, Kranthi K; Beecy, Ashley; Al'Aref, Subhi J; Dwivedi, Aeshita; Singh, Gurpreet; Panday, Mohit; Kumar, Amit; Ma, Xiaoyue; Achenbach, Stephan; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H; Andreini, Daniele; Bax, Jeroen J; Berman, Daniel S; Budoff, Matthew J; Cademartiri, Filippo; Callister, Tracy Q; Chang, Hyuk-Jae; Chinnaiyan, Kavitha; Chow, Benjamin J W; Cury, Ricardo C; DeLago, Augustin; Feuchtner, Gudrun; Hadamitzky, Martin; Hausleiter, Joerg; Kaufmann, Philipp A; Kim, Yong-Jin; Leipsic, Jonathon A; Maffei, Erica; Marques, Hugo; Pontone, Gianluca; Raff, Gilbert L; Rubinshtein, Ronen; Shaw, Leslee J; Villines, Todd C; Gransar, Heidi; Lu, Yao; Jones, Erica C; Peña, Jessica M; Lin, Fay Y; Min, James K

Machine learning (ML) is a field in computer science that demonstrated to effectively integrate clinical and imaging data for the creation of prognostic scores. The current study investigated whether a ML score, incorporating only the 16 segment coronary tree information derived from coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), provides enhanced risk stratification compared with current CCTA based risk scores. From the multi-center CONFIRM registry, patients were included with complete CCTA risk score information and ≥3 year follow-up for myocardial infarction and death (primary endpoint). Patients with prior coronary artery disease were excluded. Conventional CCTA risk scores (conventional CCTA approach, segment involvement score, duke prognostic index, segment stenosis score, and the Leaman risk score) and a score created using ML were compared for the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Only 16 segment based coronary stenosis (0%, 1-24%, 25-49%, 50-69%, 70-99% and 100%) and composition (calcified, mixed and non-calcified plaque) were provided to the ML model. A boosted ensemble algorithm (extreme gradient boosting; XGBoost) was used and the entire data was randomly split into a training set (80%) and testing set (20%). First, tuned hyperparameters were used to generate a trained model from the training data set (80% of data). Second, the performance of this trained model was independently tested on the unseen test set (20% of data). In total, 8844 patients (mean age 58.0 ± 11.5 years, 57.7% male) were included. During a mean follow-up time of 4.6 ± 1.5 years, 609 events occurred (6.9%). No CAD was observed in 48.7% (3.5% event), non-obstructive CAD in 31.8% (6.8% event), and obstructive CAD in 19.5% (15.6% event). Discrimination of events as expressed by AUC was significantly better for the ML based approach (0.771) vs the other scores (ranging from 0.685 to 0.701), P < 0.001. Net reclassification improvement analysis showed that the improved risk stratification was the result of down-classification of risk among patients that did not experience events (non-events). A risk score created by a ML based algorithm, that utilizes standard 16 coronary segment stenosis and composition information derived from detailed CCTA reading, has greater prognostic accuracy than current CCTA integrated risk scores. These findings indicate that a ML based algorithm can improve the integration of CCTA derived plaque information to improve risk stratification. Published by Elsevier Inc.

[Syncope and work: role of the occupational physician and global risk stratification].

PubMed

Barbic, F; Angaroni, L; Orlandi, M; Costantino, G; Dipaola, E; Borleri, D; Borchini, R; D'Adda, F; Perego, F; Borella, M; Galli, A; Solbiati, M; Scanella, E; Casazza, G; Seghizzi, P; Furlan, R

2011-01-01

Safety risk for subjects suffering from syncope while working has not been as yet addressed by occupational medicine. The present study was aimed at evaluating a new developed methodology for job tasks risk stratification in patients with syncope. During a work-shop on syncope and occupational risk, 149 occupational physicians (OP) with about 10 years of clinical experience were asked to fulfil a Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) concerning the doctor's estimated potential damage (D) to the worker and the probability of a damage to occur (P) should syncope take place during the job task. Five job tasks characterized by different risk for safety (1, driving; 2, toxic products handling; 3, job performed closed to hot surfaces o free flames; 4, surgical activity; 5, office job) were identified. OP correctly stratified the risk associated to the different job tasks in patients with syncope. Unexpectedly, task #3 was given a risk similar to that obtained in drivers. This might be of paramount clinical and social importance when patients with syncope have to return to their job tasks.

Risk stratification in secondary cardiovascular prevention.

PubMed

Lazzeroni, Davide; Coruzzi, Paolo

2018-02-19

Worldwide, more than 7 million people experience acute myocardial infarction (AMI) every year (1), and although substantial reduction in mortality has been obtained in recent decades, one-year mortality rates are still in the range of 10%. Among patients who survive AMI, 20% suffer a second cardiovascular event in the first year and approximately 50% of major coronary events occur in those with a previous hospital discharge diagnosis of AMI (2). Despite the evidence that lifestyle changes and risk factors management strongly improve long-term prognosis, preventive care post-AMI remains sub-optimal. Cross-sectional data from the serially conducted EUROASPIRE surveys in patients with established ischemic heart disease (IHD) and people at high cardiovascular risk have demonstrated a high prevalence of unhealthy lifestyle, modifiable risk factors and inadequate use of drug therapies to achieve blood pressure and lipid goals (3). Secondary prevention programmes, defined as the level of preventive care focusing on early risk stratification, are highly recommended in all IHD patients, to restore quality of life, maintain or improve functional capacity and prevent recurrence.

Prediction of breast cancer risk based on profiling with common genetic variants.

PubMed

Mavaddat, Nasim; Pharoah, Paul D P; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Tyrer, Jonathan; Brook, Mark N; Bolla, Manjeet K; Wang, Qin; Dennis, Joe; Dunning, Alison M; Shah, Mitul; Luben, Robert; Brown, Judith; Bojesen, Stig E; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Nielsen, Sune F; Flyger, Henrik; Czene, Kamila; Darabi, Hatef; Eriksson, Mikael; Peto, Julian; Dos-Santos-Silva, Isabel; Dudbridge, Frank; Johnson, Nichola; Schmidt, Marjanka K; Broeks, Annegien; Verhoef, Senno; Rutgers, Emiel J; Swerdlow, Anthony; Ashworth, Alan; Orr, Nick; Schoemaker, Minouk J; Figueroa, Jonine; Chanock, Stephen J; Brinton, Louise; Lissowska, Jolanta; Couch, Fergus J; Olson, Janet E; Vachon, Celine; Pankratz, Vernon S; Lambrechts, Diether; Wildiers, Hans; Van Ongeval, Chantal; van Limbergen, Erik; Kristensen, Vessela; Grenaker Alnæs, Grethe; Nord, Silje; Borresen-Dale, Anne-Lise; Nevanlinna, Heli; Muranen, Taru A; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Blomqvist, Carl; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Rudolph, Anja; Seibold, Petra; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Fasching, Peter A; Haeberle, Lothar; Ekici, Arif B; Beckmann, Matthias W; Burwinkel, Barbara; Marme, Frederik; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Sohn, Christof; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Newcomb, Polly; Titus, Linda; Egan, Kathleen M; Hunter, David J; Lindstrom, Sara; Tamimi, Rulla M; Kraft, Peter; Rahman, Nazneen; Turnbull, Clare; Renwick, Anthony; Seal, Sheila; Li, Jingmei; Liu, Jianjun; Humphreys, Keith; Benitez, Javier; Pilar Zamora, M; Arias Perez, Jose Ignacio; Menéndez, Primitiva; Jakubowska, Anna; Lubinski, Jan; Jaworska-Bieniek, Katarzyna; Durda, Katarzyna; Bogdanova, Natalia V; Antonenkova, Natalia N; Dörk, Thilo; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Neuhausen, Susan L; Ziogas, Argyrios; Bernstein, Leslie; Devilee, Peter; Tollenaar, Robert A E M; Seynaeve, Caroline; van Asperen, Christi J; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S; Reed, Malcolm W R; Khusnutdinova, Elza; Bermisheva, Marina; Prokofyeva, Darya; Takhirova, Zalina; Meindl, Alfons; Schmutzler, Rita K; Sutter, Christian; Yang, Rongxi; Schürmann, Peter; Bremer, Michael; Christiansen, Hans; Park-Simon, Tjoung-Won; Hillemanns, Peter; Guénel, Pascal; Truong, Thérèse; Menegaux, Florence; Sanchez, Marie; Radice, Paolo; Peterlongo, Paolo; Manoukian, Siranoush; Pensotti, Valeria; Hopper, John L; Tsimiklis, Helen; Apicella, Carmel; Southey, Melissa C; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brüning, Thomas; Ko, Yon-Dschun; Sigurdson, Alice J; Doody, Michele M; Hamann, Ute; Torres, Diana; Ulmer, Hans-Ulrich; Försti, Asta; Sawyer, Elinor J; Tomlinson, Ian; Kerin, Michael J; Miller, Nicola; Andrulis, Irene L; Knight, Julia A; Glendon, Gord; Marie Mulligan, Anna; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Balleine, Rosemary; Giles, Graham G; Milne, Roger L; McLean, Catriona; Lindblom, Annika; Margolin, Sara; Haiman, Christopher A; Henderson, Brian E; Schumacher, Fredrick; Le Marchand, Loic; Eilber, Ursula; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Hooning, Maartje J; Hollestelle, Antoinette; van den Ouweland, Ans M W; Koppert, Linetta B; Carpenter, Jane; Clarke, Christine; Scott, Rodney; Mannermaa, Arto; Kataja, Vesa; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Hartikainen, Jaana M; Brenner, Hermann; Arndt, Volker; Stegmaier, Christa; Karina Dieffenbach, Aida; Winqvist, Robert; Pylkäs, Katri; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Grip, Mervi; Offit, Kenneth; Vijai, Joseph; Robson, Mark; Rau-Murthy, Rohini; Dwek, Miriam; Swann, Ruth; Annie Perkins, Katherine; Goldberg, Mark S; Labrèche, France; Dumont, Martine; Eccles, Diana M; Tapper, William J; Rafiq, Sajjad; John, Esther M; Whittemore, Alice S; Slager, Susan; Yannoukakos, Drakoulis; Toland, Amanda E; Yao, Song; Zheng, Wei; Halverson, Sandra L; González-Neira, Anna; Pita, Guillermo; Rosario Alonso, M; Álvarez, Nuria; Herrero, Daniel; Tessier, Daniel C; Vincent, Daniel; Bacot, Francois; Luccarini, Craig; Baynes, Caroline; Ahmed, Shahana; Maranian, Mel; Healey, Catherine S; Simard, Jacques; Hall, Per; Easton, Douglas F; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat

2015-05-01

Data for multiple common susceptibility alleles for breast cancer may be combined to identify women at different levels of breast cancer risk. Such stratification could guide preventive and screening strategies. However, empirical evidence for genetic risk stratification is lacking. We investigated the value of using 77 breast cancer-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for risk stratification, in a study of 33 673 breast cancer cases and 33 381 control women of European origin. We tested all possible pair-wise multiplicative interactions and constructed a 77-SNP polygenic risk score (PRS) for breast cancer overall and by estrogen receptor (ER) status. Absolute risks of breast cancer by PRS were derived from relative risk estimates and UK incidence and mortality rates. There was no strong evidence for departure from a multiplicative model for any SNP pair. Women in the highest 1% of the PRS had a three-fold increased risk of developing breast cancer compared with women in the middle quintile (odds ratio [OR] = 3.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.95 to 3.83). The ORs for ER-positive and ER-negative disease were 3.73 (95% CI = 3.24 to 4.30) and 2.80 (95% CI = 2.26 to 3.46), respectively. Lifetime risk of breast cancer for women in the lowest and highest quintiles of the PRS were 5.2% and 16.6% for a woman without family history, and 8.6% and 24.4% for a woman with a first-degree family history of breast cancer. The PRS stratifies breast cancer risk in women both with and without a family history of breast cancer. The observed level of risk discrimination could inform targeted screening and prevention strategies. Further discrimination may be achievable through combining the PRS with lifestyle/environmental factors, although these were not considered in this report. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

Prediction of Breast Cancer Risk Based on Profiling With Common Genetic Variants

PubMed Central

Pharoah, Paul D. P.; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Tyrer, Jonathan; Brook, Mark N.; Bolla, Manjeet K.; Wang, Qin; Dennis, Joe; Dunning, Alison M.; Shah, Mitul; Luben, Robert; Brown, Judith; Bojesen, Stig E.; Nordestgaard, Børge G.; Nielsen, Sune F.; Flyger, Henrik; Czene, Kamila; Darabi, Hatef; Eriksson, Mikael; Peto, Julian; dos-Santos-Silva, Isabel; Dudbridge, Frank; Johnson, Nichola; Schmidt, Marjanka K.; Broeks, Annegien; Verhoef, Senno; Rutgers, Emiel J.; Swerdlow, Anthony; Ashworth, Alan; Orr, Nick; Schoemaker, Minouk J.; Figueroa, Jonine; Chanock, Stephen J.; Brinton, Louise; Lissowska, Jolanta; Couch, Fergus J.; Olson, Janet E.; Vachon, Celine; Pankratz, Vernon S.; Lambrechts, Diether; Wildiers, Hans; Van Ongeval, Chantal; van Limbergen, Erik; Kristensen, Vessela; Grenaker Alnæs, Grethe; Nord, Silje; Borresen-Dale, Anne-Lise; Nevanlinna, Heli; Muranen, Taru A.; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Blomqvist, Carl; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Rudolph, Anja; Seibold, Petra; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Fasching, Peter A.; Haeberle, Lothar; Ekici, Arif B.; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Burwinkel, Barbara; Marme, Frederik; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Sohn, Christof; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Newcomb, Polly; Titus, Linda; Egan, Kathleen M.; Hunter, David J.; Lindstrom, Sara; Tamimi, Rulla M.; Kraft, Peter; Rahman, Nazneen; Turnbull, Clare; Renwick, Anthony; Seal, Sheila; Li, Jingmei; Liu, Jianjun; Humphreys, Keith; Benitez, Javier; Pilar Zamora, M.; Arias Perez, Jose Ignacio; Menéndez, Primitiva; Jakubowska, Anna; Lubinski, Jan; Jaworska-Bieniek, Katarzyna; Durda, Katarzyna; Bogdanova, Natalia V.; Antonenkova, Natalia N.; Dörk, Thilo; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Ziogas, Argyrios; Bernstein, Leslie; Devilee, Peter; Tollenaar, Robert A. E. M.; Seynaeve, Caroline; van Asperen, Christi J.; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S.; Reed, Malcolm W. R.; Khusnutdinova, Elza; Bermisheva, Marina; Prokofyeva, Darya; Takhirova, Zalina; Meindl, Alfons; Schmutzler, Rita K.; Sutter, Christian; Yang, Rongxi; Schürmann, Peter; Bremer, Michael; Christiansen, Hans; Park-Simon, Tjoung-Won; Hillemanns, Peter; Guénel, Pascal; Truong, Thérèse; Menegaux, Florence; Sanchez, Marie; Radice, Paolo; Peterlongo, Paolo; Manoukian, Siranoush; Pensotti, Valeria; Hopper, John L.; Tsimiklis, Helen; Apicella, Carmel; Southey, Melissa C.; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brüning, Thomas; Ko, Yon-Dschun; Sigurdson, Alice J.; Doody, Michele M.; Hamann, Ute; Torres, Diana; Ulmer, Hans-Ulrich; Försti, Asta; Sawyer, Elinor J.; Tomlinson, Ian; Kerin, Michael J.; Miller, Nicola; Andrulis, Irene L.; Knight, Julia A.; Glendon, Gord; Marie Mulligan, Anna; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Balleine, Rosemary; Giles, Graham G.; Milne, Roger L.; McLean, Catriona; Lindblom, Annika; Margolin, Sara; Haiman, Christopher A.; Henderson, Brian E.; Schumacher, Fredrick; Le Marchand, Loic; Eilber, Ursula; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Hooning, Maartje J.; Hollestelle, Antoinette; van den Ouweland, Ans M. W.; Koppert, Linetta B.; Carpenter, Jane; Clarke, Christine; Scott, Rodney; Mannermaa, Arto; Kataja, Vesa; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Hartikainen, Jaana M.; Brenner, Hermann; Arndt, Volker; Stegmaier, Christa; Karina Dieffenbach, Aida; Winqvist, Robert; Pylkäs, Katri; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Grip, Mervi; Offit, Kenneth; Vijai, Joseph; Robson, Mark; Rau-Murthy, Rohini; Dwek, Miriam; Swann, Ruth; Annie Perkins, Katherine; Goldberg, Mark S.; Labrèche, France; Dumont, Martine; Eccles, Diana M.; Tapper, William J.; Rafiq, Sajjad; John, Esther M.; Whittemore, Alice S.; Slager, Susan; Yannoukakos, Drakoulis; Toland, Amanda E.; Yao, Song; Zheng, Wei; Halverson, Sandra L.; González-Neira, Anna; Pita, Guillermo; Rosario Alonso, M.; Álvarez, Nuria; Herrero, Daniel; Tessier, Daniel C.; Vincent, Daniel; Bacot, Francois; Luccarini, Craig; Baynes, Caroline; Ahmed, Shahana; Maranian, Mel; Healey, Catherine S.; Simard, Jacques; Hall, Per; Easton, Douglas F.; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat

2015-01-01

Background: Data for multiple common susceptibility alleles for breast cancer may be combined to identify women at different levels of breast cancer risk. Such stratification could guide preventive and screening strategies. However, empirical evidence for genetic risk stratification is lacking. Methods: We investigated the value of using 77 breast cancer-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for risk stratification, in a study of 33 673 breast cancer cases and 33 381 control women of European origin. We tested all possible pair-wise multiplicative interactions and constructed a 77-SNP polygenic risk score (PRS) for breast cancer overall and by estrogen receptor (ER) status. Absolute risks of breast cancer by PRS were derived from relative risk estimates and UK incidence and mortality rates. Results: There was no strong evidence for departure from a multiplicative model for any SNP pair. Women in the highest 1% of the PRS had a three-fold increased risk of developing breast cancer compared with women in the middle quintile (odds ratio [OR] = 3.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.95 to 3.83). The ORs for ER-positive and ER-negative disease were 3.73 (95% CI = 3.24 to 4.30) and 2.80 (95% CI = 2.26 to 3.46), respectively. Lifetime risk of breast cancer for women in the lowest and highest quintiles of the PRS were 5.2% and 16.6% for a woman without family history, and 8.6% and 24.4% for a woman with a first-degree family history of breast cancer. Conclusions: The PRS stratifies breast cancer risk in women both with and without a family history of breast cancer. The observed level of risk discrimination could inform targeted screening and prevention strategies. Further discrimination may be achievable through combining the PRS with lifestyle/environmental factors, although these were not considered in this report. PMID:25855707

Gene expression profiling in multiple myeloma--reporting of entities, risk, and targets in clinical routine.

PubMed

Meissner, Tobias; Seckinger, Anja; Rème, Thierry; Hielscher, Thomas; Möhler, Thomas; Neben, Kai; Goldschmidt, Hartmut; Klein, Bernard; Hose, Dirk

2011-12-01

Multiple myeloma is an incurable malignant plasma cell disease characterized by survival ranging from several months to more than 15 years. Assessment of risk and underlying molecular heterogeneity can be excellently done by gene expression profiling (GEP), but its way into clinical routine is hampered by the lack of an appropriate reporting tool and the integration with other prognostic factors into a single "meta" risk stratification. The GEP-report (GEP-R) was built as an open-source software developed in R for gene expression reporting in clinical practice using Affymetrix microarrays. GEP-R processes new samples by applying a documentation-by-value strategy to the raw data to be able to assign thresholds and grouping algorithms defined on a reference cohort of 262 patients with multiple myeloma. Furthermore, we integrated expression-based and conventional prognostic factors within one risk stratification (HM-metascore). The GEP-R comprises (i) quality control, (ii) sample identity control, (iii) biologic classification, (iv) risk stratification, and (v) assessment of target genes. The resulting HM-metascore is defined as the sum over the weighted factors gene expression-based risk-assessment (UAMS-, IFM-score), proliferation, International Staging System (ISS) stage, t(4;14), and expression of prognostic target genes (AURKA, IGF1R) for which clinical grade inhibitors exist. The HM-score delineates three significantly different groups of 13.1%, 72.1%, and 14.7% of patients with a 6-year survival rate of 89.3%, 60.6%, and 18.6%, respectively. GEP reporting allows prospective assessment of risk and target gene expression and integration of current prognostic factors in clinical routine, being customizable about novel parameters or other cancer entities. ©2011 AACR.

Risk stratification for death and all-cause hospitalization in heart failure clinic outpatients.

PubMed

Hummel, Scott L; Ghalib, Hussam H; Ratz, David; Koelling, Todd M

2013-11-01

Most heart failure (HF) risk stratification models were developed for inpatient use, and available outpatient models use a complex set of variables. We hypothesized that routinely collected clinical data could predict the 6-month risk of death and all-cause medical hospitalization in HF clinic outpatients. Using a quality improvement database and multivariable Cox modeling, we derived the Heart Failure Patient Severity Index (HFPSI) in the University of Michigan HF clinic (UM cohort, n = 1,536; 314 reached primary outcome). We externally validated the HFPSI in the Ann Arbor Veterans' Affairs HF clinic (VA cohort, n = 445; 106 outcomes) and explored "real-time" HFPSI use (VA-RT cohort, n = 486; 141 outcomes) by tracking VA patients for 6 months from their most recently calculated HFPSI, rather than using an arbitrary start date for the cohort. The HFPSI model included blood urea nitrogen, B-type natriuretic peptide, New York Heart Association class, diabetes status, history of atrial fibrillation/flutter, and all-cause hospitalization within the prior 1 and 2 to 6 months. The concordance c statistics in the UM/VA/VA-RT cohorts were 0.71/0.68/0.74. Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank testing demonstrated excellent risk stratification, particularly between a large, low-risk group (40% of patients, 6-month event rates in the UM/VA/VA-RT cohorts 8%/12%/12%) and a small, high-risk group (10% of patients, 6-month event rates in the UM/VA/VA-RT cohorts 57%/58%/79%). The HFPSI uses readily available data to predict the 6-month risk of death and/or all-cause medical hospitalization in HF clinic outpatients and could potentially help allocate specialized HF resources within health systems. © 2013.

Evaluation of screening methods for identification of patients with chronic rheumatological disease requiring tuberculosis chemoprophylaxis prior to commencement of TNF-α antagonist therapy.

PubMed

Singanayagam, Aran; Manalan, Kavina; Sridhar, Saranya; Molyneaux, Philip L; Connell, David W; George, Peter M; Kindelerer, Anne; Seneviratne, Suranjith; Lalvani, Ajit; Wickremasinghe, Melissa; Kon, Onn Min

2013-10-01

Patients undergoing tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-α antagonist therapy are at increased risk of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) reactivation. The aim of this study was to determine the optimum available screening strategy for identifying patients for tuberculosis (TB) chemoprophylaxis. We conducted a prospective observational study of consecutive adults with chronic rheumatological disease referred for LTBI screening prior to commencement of TNF-α antagonist therapy. All patients included had calculation of TB risk according to age, ethnicity and year of UK entry, as described in the 2005 British Thoracic Society (BTS) guidelines and measurement of tuberculin skin test (TST) and T.Spot.TB. There were 187 patients included in the study, with 157 patients (84%) taking immunosuppressants. 137 patients would require further risk stratification according to the BTS algorithm, with 110 (80.3%) classified as being at low risk of having LTBI. There were 39 patients (35.5%) who were categorised as low risk but were either TST and/or T.Spot positive and would not have received chemoprophylaxis according to the BTS algorithm. Combination of all three methods (risk stratification and/or positive T.Spot and/or positive TST) identified 66 patients out of 137 who would potentially be offered chemoprophylaxis, which was greater than any single test or two-test combination. Performing both a TST and T.Spot in patients on immunosuppressants prior to commencement of TNF-α antagonist therapy gives an additional yield of potential LTBI compared with use of risk stratification tables alone. Our results suggest that use of all three screening modalities gives the highest yield of patients potentially requiring chemoprophylaxis.

Serum protein profiling using an aptamer array predicts clinical outcomes of stage IIA colon cancer: A leave-one-out crossvalidation

PubMed Central

Huh, Jung Wook; Kim, Sung Chun; Sohn, Insuk; Jung, Sin-Ho; Kim, Hee Cheol

2016-01-01

Background In this study, we established and validated a model for predicting prognosis of stage IIA colon cancer patients based on expression profiles of aptamers in serum. Methods Bloods samples were collected from 227 consecutive patients with pathologic T3N0M0 (stage IIA) colon cancer. We incubated 1,149 serum molecule-binding aptamer pools of clinical significance with serum from patients to obtain aptamers bound to serum molecules, which were then amplified and marked. Oligonucleotide arrays were constructed with the base sequences of the 1,149 aptamers, and the marked products identified above were reacted with one another to produce profiles of the aptamers bound to serum molecules. These profiles were organized into low- and high-risk groups of colon cancer patients based on clinical information for the serum samples. Cox proportional hazards model and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) were used to evaluate predictive performance. Results During a median follow-up period of 5 years, 29 of the 227 patients (11.9%) experienced recurrence. There were 212 patients (93.4%) in the low-risk group and 15 patients (6.6%) in the high-risk group in our aptamer prognosis model. Postoperative recurrence significantly correlated with age and aptamer risk stratification (p = 0.046 and p = 0.001, respectively). In multivariate analysis, aptamer risk stratification (p < 0.001) was an independent predictor of recurrence. Disease-free survival curves calculated according to aptamer risk level predicted through a LOOCV procedure and age showed significant differences (p < 0.001 from permutations). Conclusion Aptamer risk stratification can be a valuable prognostic factor in stage II colon cancer patients. PMID:26908450

Blood pressure load does not add to ambulatory blood pressure level for cardiovascular risk stratification.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Thijs, Lutgarde; Boggia, José; Asayama, Kei; Hansen, Tine W; Kikuya, Masahiro; Björklund-Bodegård, Kristina; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Dolan, Eamon; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Stolarz-Skrzypek, Katarzyna; Tikhonoff, Valérie; Malyutina, Sofia; Casiglia, Edoardo; Nikitin, Yuri; Lind, Lars; Sandoya, Edgardo; Kawecka-Jaszcz, Kalina; Filipovsky, Jan; Imai, Yutaka; Ibsen, Hans; O'Brien, Eoin; Wang, Jiguang; Staessen, Jan A

2014-05-01

Experts proposed blood pressure (BP) load derived from 24-hour ambulatory BP recordings as a more accurate predictor of outcome than level, in particular in normotensive people. We analyzed 8711 subjects (mean age, 54.8 years; 47.0% women) randomly recruited from 10 populations. We expressed BP load as percentage (%) of systolic/diastolic readings ≥135/≥85 mm Hg and ≥120/≥70 mm Hg during day and night, respectively, or as the area under the BP curve (mm Hg×h) using the same ceiling values. During a period of 10.7 years (median), 1284 participants died and 1109 experienced a fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular end point. In multivariable-adjusted models, the risk of cardiovascular complications gradually increased across deciles of BP level and load (P<0.001), but BP load did not substantially refine risk prediction based on 24-hour systolic or diastolic BP level (generalized R(2) statistic ≤0.294%; net reclassification improvement ≤0.28%; integrated discrimination improvement ≤0.001%). Systolic/diastolic BP load of 40.0/42.3% or 91.8/73.6 mm Hg×h conferred a 10-year risk of a composite cardiovascular end point similar to a 24-hour systolic/diastolic BP of 130/80 mm Hg. In analyses dichotomized according to these thresholds, increased BP load did not refine risk prediction in the whole study population (R(2)≤0.051) or in untreated participants with 24-hour ambulatory normotension (R(2)≤0.034). In conclusion, BP load does not improve risk stratification based on 24-hour BP level. This also applies to subjects with normal 24-hour BP for whom BP load was proposed to be particularly useful in risk stratification.

Identifying Unique Versus Shared Pre- and Perinatal Risk Factors for ASD and ADHD Using a Simplex-Multiplex Stratification.

PubMed

Oerlemans, Anoek M; Burmanje, Marlot J; Franke, Barbara; Buitelaar, Jan K; Hartman, Catharina A; Rommelse, Nanda N J

2016-07-01

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) frequently co-occur. Besides shared genetic factors, pre- and perinatal risk factors (PPFs) may determine if ASD, ADHD, or the combination of both disorders becomes manifest. This study aimed to test shared and unique involvement of PPFs for ASD and ADHD, using an approach that stratifies the sample into affected/unaffected offspring and single-incidence (SPX) versus multi-incidence (MPX) families. Pre- perinatal data based on retrospective parent-report were collected in 288 children (71 % males) from 31 SPX and 59 MPX ASD families, 476 children (65 % males) from 31 SPX and 171 MPX ADHD families, and 408 control children (42 % males). Except for large family size and more firstborns amongst affected offspring, no shared PFFs were identified for ASD and ADHD. PPFs predominantly related to ASD (maternal infections and suboptimal condition at birth) were more often reported in affected than unaffected siblings. PPFs associated with ADHD (low parental age, maternal diseases, smoking and stress) were shared between affected and unaffected siblings. Firstborn-ship was more frequent in SPX than MPX ASD probands. Our results suggest that the co-morbidity of ASD and ADHD is not likely explained by shared PPFs. Instead, PPFs might play a crucial role in the developmental pathways leading up to either disorder. PPFs in ADHD appear to index an increased shared risk, whereas in ASD PPFs possibly have a more determining role in the disorder. SPX-MPX stratification detected possible etiological differences in ASD families, but provided no deeper insight in the role of PPFs in ADHD.

Coronary artery atherosclerosis and risk stratification in young adults with an intermediate pretest likelihood detected by multidetector computed tomography.

PubMed

Hou, Zhi-hui; Lu, Bin; Gao, Yang; Yu, Fang-fang; Cao, Hui-li; Jiang, Shi-liang; Roy, Sion K; Budoff, Matthew J

2012-11-01

To document the prevalence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and major adverse cardiac events (MACE) in patients younger than 45 years of age with intermediate pretest likelihood of CAD, and to determine whether coronary computed tomography angiography (cCTA) is useful for risk stratification of this cohort. We followed 452 intermediate pretest likelihood (according to Diamond and Forrester) outpatients who were suspected of CAD and underwent cCTA. They were all younger than 45 years old. The endpoint was MACE, defined as composite cardiac death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or coronary revascularization. Follow-up was completed in 427 patients (94.5%) with a median follow-up period of 1081 days. No plaque was noted in 357 (83.6%) patients. Nonsignificant CAD was noted in 33 (7.7%) individuals and 37 (8.7%) patients with significant CAD. At the end of the follow-up period, 12 (2.8%) patients experienced MACE. The annualized event rate was 0.2% in patients with no plaque, 2.0% in patients with nonsignificant CAD, and 7.3% in patients with significant CAD. Hypertension, smoking, and significant CAD in cCTA were significant predictors of MACE in univariate analysis. Moreover, cCTA remained a predictor (P < .001) of events after multivariate correction (hazard ratio: 8.345, 95% CI: 3.438-17.823, P < .001). The prevalence of CAD and MACE in young adults with an intermediate pretest likelihood of CAD was considerable. cCTA is effective in restratifying patients into either a low or high posttest risk group. These results further emphasize the usefulness of cCTA in this cohort. Copyright © 2012 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Commercial Motor Vehicle Driver Obstructive Sleep Apnea Screening and Treatment in the United States: An Update and Recommendation Overview

PubMed Central

Colvin, Loretta J.; Collop, Nancy A.

2016-01-01

No regulatory mandate exists in the United States (U.S.) for comprehensive obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) risk assessment and stratification for commercial motor vehicle (CMV) drivers. Current Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) requirements are outdated and depend largely on subjective report, a less reliable strategy in an occupational setting. Without FMCSA standards, sleep specialists, occupational medical examiners and employers rely on a collection of medical consensus recommendations to establish standards of care. These recommendations advise OSA risk assessment through a combination of focused medical history, physical examination, questionnaires, and accident history, which increase OSA detection compared to current FMCSA standards. For those diagnosed with OSA, consensus-based risk stratification helps identify CMV drivers who may benefit from OSA treatment and establish minimum standards for assessing treatment efficacy and adherence. Unfortunately no consolidated recommendation exists; rather, publications span medical and governmental literature in a patchwork fashion that no longer fully reflect current practice due to subsequent advances in OSA diagnosis, treatment, and technology. Based on searches of medical literature, internet materials, and reference lists from existing publications, an overview and discussion of key published recommendations regarding OSA assessment and treatment in CMV operators is provided. Suggestions for incorporating these recommendations into clinical sleep medicine practice in the U.S. are presented. The challenge for sleep specialists is maintaining the delicate balance between recommendations impacting standard of care and associated medico-legal impact with stakeholder interests from medical, regulatory, industry and public perspectives while providing high quality and efficient care. Citation: Colvin LJ, Collop NA. Commercial motor vehicle driver obstructive sleep apnea screening and treatment in the United States: an update and recommendation overview. J Clin Sleep Med 2016;12(1):113–125. PMID:26094916

Effects of moist cold stratification on germination, plant growth regulators, metabolites and embryo ultrastructure in seeds of Acer morrisonense (Sapindaceae).

PubMed

Chen, Shun-Ying; Chou, Shih-Han; Tsai, Ching-Chu; Hsu, Wen-Yu; Baskin, Carol C; Baskin, Jerry M; Chien, Ching-Te; Kuo-Huang, Ling-Long

2015-09-01

Breaking of seed dormancy by moist cold stratification involves complex interactions in cells. To assess the effect of moist cold stratification on dormancy break in seeds of Acer morrisonense, we monitored percentages and rates of germination and changes in plant growth regulators, sugars, amino acids and embryo ultrastructure after various periods of cold stratification. Fresh seeds incubated at 25/15 °C for 24 weeks germinated to 61%, while those cold stratified at 5 °C for 12 weeks germinated to 87% in 1 week. Neither exogenous GA3 nor GA4 pretreatment significantly increased final seed germination percentage. Total ABA content of seeds cold stratified for 12 weeks was reduced about 3.3-fold, to a concentration similar to that in germinated seeds (radicle emergence). Endogenous GA3 and GA7 were detected in 8-week and 12-week cold stratified seeds but not in fresh seeds. Numerous protein and lipid bodies were present in the plumule, first true leaves and cotyledons of fresh seeds. Protein and lipid bodies decreased greatly during cold stratification, and concentrations of total soluble sugars and amino acids increased. The major non-polar sugars in fresh seeds were sucrose and fructose, but sucrose increased and fructose decreased significantly during cold stratification. The major free amino acids were proline and tryptophan in fresh seeds, and proline increased and tryptophan decreased during cold stratification. Thus, as dormancy break occurs during cold stratification seeds of A. morrisonense undergo changes in plant growth regulators, proteins, lipids, sugars, amino acids and cell ultrastructure. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Dissolved oxygen stratification and response to thermal structure and long-term climate change in a large and deep subtropical reservoir (Lake Qiandaohu, China).

PubMed

Zhang, Yunlin; Wu, Zhixu; Liu, Mingliang; He, Jianbo; Shi, Kun; Zhou, Yongqiang; Wang, Mingzhu; Liu, Xiaohan

2015-05-15

From January 2010 to March 2014, detailed depth profiles of water temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), and chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) were collected at three sites in Lake Qiandaohu, a large, deep subtropical reservoir in China. Additionally, we assessed the changes in DO stratification over the past 61 years (1953-2013) based on our empirical models and long-term air temperature and transparency data. The DO concentration never fell below 2 mg/L, the critical value for anoxia, and the DO depth profiles were closely linked to the water temperature depth profiles. In the stable stratification period in summer and autumn, the significant increase in CDOM in the metalimnion explained the decrease in DO due to the oxygen consumed by CDOM. Well-developed oxygen stratification was detected at the three sites in spring, summer and autumn and was associated with thermal stratification. Oxycline depth was significantly negatively correlated with daily air temperature and thermocline thickness but significantly positively correlated with thermocline depth during the stratification weakness period (July-February). However, there were no significant correlations among these parameters during the stratification formation period (March-June). The increase of 1.67 °C in yearly average daily air temperature between 1980 and 2013 and the decrease of 0.78 m in Secchi disk depth caused a decrease of 1.65 m and 2.78 m in oxycline depth, respectively, facilitating oxygen stratification and decreasing water quality. Therefore, climate warming has had a substantial effect on water quality through changing the DO regime in Lake Qiandaohu. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Deep Vein Thrombosis Prophylaxis: State of the Art.

PubMed

Lieberman, Jay R

2018-03-21

The selection of a prophylaxis regimen to prevent symptomatic pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis is a balance between efficacy and safety. The latest American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons guideline recommended that either chemoprophylaxis or mechanical prophylaxis be used after total joint arthroplasty but did not recommend specific agents. However, the latest evidence-based American College of Chest Physicians guideline recommended a variety of chemoprophylaxis and mechanical agents for a minimum of 10 to 14 days after total joint arthroplasty. Risk stratification is the key to the selection of the appropriate prophylaxis regimen for the individual patient, but the optimal risk stratification protocol still needs to be developed. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Adaptation of a Biomarker-Based Sepsis Mortality Risk Stratification Tool for Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome.

PubMed

Yehya, Nadir; Wong, Hector R

2018-01-01

The original Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model and revised (Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model-II) biomarker-based risk prediction models have demonstrated utility for estimating baseline 28-day mortality risk in pediatric sepsis. Given the paucity of prediction tools in pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome, and given the overlapping pathophysiology between sepsis and acute respiratory distress syndrome, we tested the utility of Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model and Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model-II for mortality prediction in a cohort of pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome, with an a priori plan to revise the model if these existing models performed poorly. Prospective observational cohort study. University affiliated PICU. Mechanically ventilated children with acute respiratory distress syndrome. Blood collection within 24 hours of acute respiratory distress syndrome onset and biomarker measurements. In 152 children with acute respiratory distress syndrome, Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model performed poorly and Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model-II performed modestly (areas under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.61 and 0.76, respectively). Therefore, we randomly selected 80% of the cohort (n = 122) to rederive a risk prediction model for pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome. We used classification and regression tree methodology, considering the Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model biomarkers in addition to variables relevant to acute respiratory distress syndrome. The final model was comprised of three biomarkers and age, and more accurately estimated baseline mortality risk (area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.85, p < 0.001 and p = 0.053 compared with Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model and Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model-II, respectively). The model was tested in the remaining 20% of subjects (n = 30) and demonstrated similar test characteristics. A validated, biomarker-based risk stratification tool designed for pediatric sepsis was adapted for use in pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome. The newly derived Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Biomarker Risk Model demonstrates good test characteristics internally and requires external validation in a larger cohort. Tools such as Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Biomarker Risk Model have the potential to provide improved risk stratification and prognostic enrichment for future trials in pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome.

In Vivo Biomarkers for Targeting Colorectal Neoplasms

PubMed Central

Hsiung, Pei-Lin; Wang, Thomas

2011-01-01

Summary Colorectal carcinoma continues to be a leading cause of cancer morbidity and mortality despite widespread adoption of screening methods. Targeted detection and therapy using recent advances in our knowledge of in vivo cancer biomarkers promise to significantly improve methods for early detection, risk stratification, and therapeutic intervention. The behavior of molecular targets in transformed tissues is being comprehensively assessed using new techniques of gene expression profiling and high throughput analyses. The identification of promising targets is stimulating the development of novel molecular probes, including significant progress in the field of activatable and peptide probes. These probes are being evaluated in small animal models of colorectal neoplasia and recently in the clinic. Furthermore, innovations in optical imaging instrumentation are resulting in the scaling down of size for endoscope compatibility. Advances in target identification, probe development, and novel instruments are progressing rapidly, and the integration of these technologies has a promising future in molecular medicine. PMID:19126961

In Vivo Cancer Biomarkers of Esophageal Neoplasia

PubMed Central

Lu, Shaoying; Wang, Thomas D

2011-01-01

Summary The emergence of in vivo cancer biomarkers is promising tool for early detection, risk stratification, and therapeutic intervention in the esophagus, where adenocarcinoma is increasing at a rate that is faster than any other in industrialized nations. Exciting advances in target identification, probe development, and optical instrumentation are creating tremendous new opportunities for advancing techniques of molecular imaging. Progress in these areas is being made with small animal models of esophageal cancer using surgical approaches to induce reflux of acid and bile, and these findings are beginning to be evaluated in the clinic. Further identification of relevant targets, characterization of specific probes, and development of endoscopic imaging technologies are needed to further this direction in the field of molecular medicine. In the future, new methods that use in vivo cancer biomarkers for the early detection of neoplastic changes in the setting of Barrett's esophagus will become available. PMID:19126962

Treatment outcome of young children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia: achievements and directions implied from Shanghai Children's Medical Centre based SCMC-ALL-2005 protocol.

PubMed

Liang, Yang; Yang, Lin-Hai; Jiang, Hui; Yuan, Xiao-Jun; Sun, Li-Rong; Wang, Ning-Ling; Tang, Jing-Yan

2015-04-01

This multicenter study used the Shanghai Children's Medical Center (SCMC)-ALL-2005 protocol for treatment of young patients (<2 years old) with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL), which was designed to improve treatment outcome in Chinese paediatric patients. These aims were pursued through risk-directed stratification based on presenting clinical and genetic features, minimal residual disease (MRD) levels and treatment response. All the patients achieved completed remission with 5-year event-free survivals of 82·6 ± 9·7% (low risk), 52·6 ± 8·4% (intermediate risk), 28·6 ± 17·1% (high risk). Disease recurrence was detected in bone marrow, bone marrow plus testis, testis alone and central nervous system in 16 (24·2%), 1 (1·5%), 1 (1·5%) and 1 (1·5%) patients respectively. No deaths were reported during induction. The SCMC-ALL-2005 trial for ALL patients <2 years old indicated high remission induction and low infection and treatment-related mortality rates. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Development in the Native Population of Low- and High-Altitude Regions of Kyrgyzstan: Finnish Diabetes Risc Score Questionnaire Results.

PubMed

Moldobaeva, Marina S; Vinogradova, Anastasiya V; Esenamanova, Marina K

2017-12-01

Moldobaeva, Marina S., Anastasiya V. Vinogradova, and Marina K. Esenamanova. Risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus development in the native population of low- and high-altitude regions of Kyrgyzstan: Finnish Diabetes Risc Score questionnaire results. High Alt Med Biol. 18:428-435, 2017. The number of patients with diabetes is steadily growing, but likely only half of all cases are ever identified. The Kyrgyz, native inhabitants of Central Asia, live in the mountainous area and have a particular lifestyle and nutrition. However, the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in our population is not well defined. Therefore, we aimed at determining the risk of T2DM development in the Kyrgyz population residing in low- and high-altitude (HAlt) regions by using the Finnish Diabetes Risc Score (FINDRISC) questionnaire. We included in the study 3190 randomly selected participants, including 1780 low-altitude (LAlt) residents (Chu region, 500-1200 m) and 1410 HAlt residents (Naryn region, 2000-4500 m), among whom there were 1207 men and 1983 women. Assessment of T2DM development was conducted by using the FINDRISC questionnaire and risk stratification was performed by region of residency, gender, and age. An irregular intake of vegetables and fruits, increased waist circumference (WC), and increased body mass index (BMI) were identified as leading risk factors of T2DM development in native residents of Chu and Naryn regions of Kyrgyzstan. The 10-year risk stratification of T2DM development revealed the absence of a very high-risk group; high-risk status was more frequently identified among residents of the LAlt Chu district (4.7% of women and 2.1% of men), as compared with the HAlt population (1.9% of women and 1% of men) (p = 0.0018 for women and p = 0.09 for men). In the Kyrgyz population, a 10-year high risk of T2DM development is greater among residents of LAlts as compared with HAlts, irrespective of gender. No very high-risk group was detected in residents of low or HAlts. The leading composites of FINDRISC score are increased WC and BMI, possibly due to irregular intake of vegetables and fruits that are dependent on the altitude of residence and age.

Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease in Women.

PubMed

Saeed, Anum; Kampangkaew, June; Nambi, Vijay

2017-01-01

Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of morbidity and mortality among women worldwide. The pathophysiological basis of cardiovascular health among men and women is not identical. This leads to variable cardiovascular responses to stimulus and presentation of cardiovascular disease symptoms, both of which can have a direct effect on treatment outcomes. Traditionally, the enrollment of women in clinical trials has been minimal, resulting in a lack of gender-specific analysis of clinical trial data and, therefore, the absence of concrete risk factor assessment among women. However, scientific progress in the past decade has identified a spectrum of risk factors for cardiovascular diseases that may be specific to women. These risk factors, which may include menopause, hypertensive disease of pregnancy, and depression, confer additional risk in women besides the traditional risk factors. The current state of knowledge and awareness about these risk factors is suboptimal at this time. Therefore, although the treatment of cardiovascular diseases is similar in both genders, appropriate risk stratification may be limited in women compared to men. The purpose of this review is to describe the recent trends in identifying female-specific risk factors for cardiovascular diseases, their utility in risk stratification, and current pharmacological options for women with regard to cardiovascular disease prevention.

A Review on Automatic Mammographic Density and Parenchymal Segmentation

PubMed Central

He, Wenda; Juette, Arne; Denton, Erika R. E.; Oliver, Arnau

2015-01-01

Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer in women. However, the exact cause(s) of breast cancer still remains unknown. Early detection, precise identification of women at risk, and application of appropriate disease prevention measures are by far the most effective way to tackle breast cancer. There are more than 70 common genetic susceptibility factors included in the current non-image-based risk prediction models (e.g., the Gail and the Tyrer-Cuzick models). Image-based risk factors, such as mammographic densities and parenchymal patterns, have been established as biomarkers but have not been fully incorporated in the risk prediction models used for risk stratification in screening and/or measuring responsiveness to preventive approaches. Within computer aided mammography, automatic mammographic tissue segmentation methods have been developed for estimation of breast tissue composition to facilitate mammographic risk assessment. This paper presents a comprehensive review of automatic mammographic tissue segmentation methodologies developed over the past two decades and the evidence for risk assessment/density classification using segmentation. The aim of this review is to analyse how engineering advances have progressed and the impact automatic mammographic tissue segmentation has in a clinical environment, as well as to understand the current research gaps with respect to the incorporation of image-based risk factors in non-image-based risk prediction models. PMID:26171249

Brazilian guidelines on prevention of cardiovascular disease in patients with diabetes: a position statement from the Brazilian Diabetes Society (SBD), the Brazilian Cardiology Society (SBC) and the Brazilian Endocrinology and Metabolism Society (SBEM).

PubMed

Bertoluci, Marcello Casaccia; Moreira, Rodrigo Oliveira; Faludi, André; Izar, Maria Cristina; Schaan, Beatriz D; Valerio, Cynthia Melissa; Bertolami, Marcelo Chiara; Chacra, Ana Paula; Malachias, Marcus Vinicius Bolivar; Vencio, Sérgio; Saraiva, José Francisco Kerr; Betti, Roberto; Turatti, Luiz; Fonseca, Francisco Antonio Helfenstein; Bianco, Henrique Tria; Sulzbach, Marta; Bertolami, Adriana; Salles, João Eduardo Nunes; Hohl, Alexandre; Trujilho, Fábio; Lima, Eduardo Gomes; Miname, Marcio Hiroshi; Zanella, Maria Teresa; Lamounier, Rodrigo; Sá, João Roberto; Amodeo, Celso; Pires, Antonio Carlos; Santos, Raul D

2017-01-01

Since the first position statement on diabetes and cardiovascular prevention published in 2014 by the Brazilian Diabetes Society, the current view on primary and secondary prevention in diabetes has evolved as a result of new approaches on cardiovascular risk stratification, new cholesterol lowering drugs, and new anti-hyperglycemic drugs. Importantly, a pattern of risk heterogeneity has emerged, showing that not all diabetic patients are at high or very high risk. In fact, most younger patients who have no overt cardiovascular risk factors may be more adequately classified as being at intermediate or even low cardiovascular risk. Thus, there is a need for cardiovascular risk stratification in patients with diabetes. The present panel reviews the best current evidence and proposes a practical risk-based approach on treatment for patients with diabetes. The Brazilian Diabetes Society, the Brazilian Society of Cardiology, and the Brazilian Endocrinology and Metabolism Society gathered to form an expert panel including 28 cardiologists and endocrinologists to review the best available evidence and to draft up-to-date an evidence-based guideline with practical recommendations for risk stratification and prevention of cardiovascular disease in diabetes. The guideline includes 59 recommendations covering: (1) the impact of new anti-hyperglycemic drugs and new lipid lowering drugs on cardiovascular risk; (2) a guide to statin use, including new definitions of LDL-cholesterol and in non-HDL-cholesterol targets; (3) evaluation of silent myocardial ischemia and subclinical atherosclerosis in patients with diabetes; (4) hypertension treatment; and (5) the use of antiplatelet therapy. Diabetes is a heterogeneous disease. Although cardiovascular risk is increased in most patients, those without risk factors or evidence of sub-clinical atherosclerosis are at a lower risk. Optimal management must rely on an approach that will cover both cardiovascular disease prevention in individuals in the highest risk as well as protection from overtreatment in those at lower risk. Thus, cardiovascular prevention strategies should be individualized according to cardiovascular risk while intensification of treatment should focus on those at higher risk.

Normative equations for central augmentation index: assessment of inter-population applicability and how it could be improved

PubMed Central

Jeroncic, Ana; Gunjaca, Grgo; Mrsic, Danijela Budimir; Mudnic, Ivana; Brizic, Ivica; Polasek, Ozren; Boban, Mladen

2016-01-01

Common reference values of arterial stiffness indices could be effective screening tool in detecting vascular phenotypes at risk. However, populations of the same ethnicity may differ in vascular phenotype due to different environmental pressure. We examined applicability of normative equations for central augmentation index (cAIx) derived from Danish population with low cardiovascular risk on the corresponding Croatian population from the Mediterranean area. Disagreement between measured and predicted cAIx was assessed by Bland-Altman analysis. Both, cAIx-age distribution and normative equation fitted on Croatian data were highly comparable to Danish low-risk sample. Contrarily, Bland-Altman analysis of cAIx disagreement revealed a curvilinear deviation from the line of full agreement indicating that the equations were not equally applicable across age ranges. Stratification of individual data into age decades eliminated curvilinearity in all but the 30–39 (men) and 40–49 (women) decades. In other decades, linear disagreement independent of age persisted indicating that cAIx determinants other than age were not envisaged/compensated for by proposed equations. Therefore, established normative equations are equally applicable to both Nordic and Mediterranean populations but are of limited use. If designed for narrower age ranges, the equations’ sensitivity in detecting vascular phenotypes at risk and applicability to different populations could be improved. PMID:27230110

Relevance of magnetic resonance imaging for early detection and diagnosis of Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

Teipel, Stefan J; Grothe, Michel; Lista, Simone; Toschi, Nicola; Garaci, Francesco G; Hampel, Harald

2013-05-01

Hippocampus volumetry currently is the best-established imaging biomarker for AD. However, the effect of multicenter acquisition on measurements of hippocampus volume needs to be explicitly considered when it is applied in large clinical trials, for example by using mixed-effects models to take the clustering of data within centers into account. The marker needs further validation in respect of the underlying neurobiological substrate and potential confounds such as vascular disease, inflammation, hydrocephalus, and alcoholism, and with regard to clinical outcomes such as cognition but also to demographic and socioeconomic outcomes such as mortality and institutionalization. The use of hippocampus volumetry for risk stratification of predementia study samples will further increase with the availability of automated measurement approaches. An important step in this respect will be the development of a standard hippocampus tracing protocol that harmonizes the large range of presently available manual protocols. In the near future, regionally differentiated automated methods will become available together with an appropriate statistical model, such as multivariate analysis of deformation fields, or techniques such as cortical-thickness measurements that yield a meaningful metrics for the detection of treatment effects. More advanced imaging protocols, including DTI, DSI, and functional MRI, are presently being used in monocenter and first multicenter studies. In the future these techniques will be relevant for the risk stratification in phase IIa type studies (small proof-of-concept trials). By contrast, the application of the broader established structural imaging biomarkers, such as hippocampus volume, for risk stratification and as surrogate end point is already today part of many clinical trial protocols. However, clinical care will also be affected by these new technologies. Radiologic expert centers already offer “dementia screening” for well-off middle-aged people who undergo an MRI scan with subsequent automated, typically VBM-based analysis, and determination of z-score deviation from a matched control cohort. Next-generation scanner software will likely include radiologic expert systems for automated segmentation, deformation-based morphometry, and multivariate analysis of anatomic MRI scans for the detection of a typical AD pattern. As these developments will start to change medical practice, first for selected subject groups that can afford this type of screening but later eventually also for other cohorts, clinicians must become aware of the potentials and limitations of these technologies. It is decidedly unclear to date how a middle-aged cognitively intact subject with a seemingly AD-positive MRI scan should be clinically advised. There is no evidence for individual risk prediction and even less for specific treatments. Thus, the development of preclinical diagnostic imaging poses not only technical but also ethical problems that must be critically discussed on the basis of profound knowledge. From a neurobiological point of view, the main determinants of cognitive impairment in AD are the density of synapses and neurons in distributed cortical and subcortical networks. MRI-based measures of regional gray matter volume and associated multivariate analysis techniques of regional interactions of gray matter densities provide insight into the onset and temporal dynamics of cortical atrophy as a close proxy for regional neuronal loss and a basis of functional impairment in specific neuronal networks. From the clinical point of view, clinicians must bear in mind that patients do not suffer from hippocampus atrophy or disconnection but from memory impairment, and that dementia screening in asymptomatic subjects should not be used outside of clinical studies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pretreatment risk stratification of feeding tube use in patients treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy for head and neck cancer.

PubMed

Anderson, Nigel J; Jackson, James E; Smith, Jennifer G; Wada, Morikatsu; Schneider, Michal; Poulsen, Michael; Rolfo, Maureen; Fahandej, Maziar; Gan, Hui; Joon, Daryl Lim; Khoo, Vincent

2018-05-13

The purpose of this study was to establish a risk stratification model for feeding tube use in patients who undergo intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) for head and neck cancers. One hundred thirty-nine patients treated with definitive IMRT (+/- concurrent chemotherapy) for head and neck mucosal cancers were included in this study. Patients were recommended a prophylactic feeding tube and followed up by a dietician for at least 8 weeks postradiotherapy (post-RT). Potential prognostic factors were analyzed for risk and duration of feeding tube use for at least 25% of dietary requirements. Many variables had significant effects on risk and/or duration of feeding tube use in univariate analyses. Subsequent multivariable analysis showed that T classification ≥3 and level 2 lymphadenopathy were the best independent significant predictors of higher risk and duration of feeding tube use, respectively, in oral cavity, pharyngeal, and supraglottic primaries. In patients treated with definitive IMRT, T classification ≥3 and level 2 lymphadenopathy can potentially stratify patients into 4 risk groups for developing severe dysphagia requiring feeding tube use. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Use of risk stratification to guide ambulatory management of neutropenic fever. Australian Consensus Guidelines 2011 Steering Committee.

PubMed

Worth, L J; Lingaratnam, S; Taylor, A; Hayward, A M; Morrissey, S; Cooney, J; Bastick, P A; Eek, R W; Wei, A; Thursky, K A

2011-01-01

Utilization of risk-stratification tools in the setting of neutropenic fever is currently limited by inadequate knowledge and lack of awareness. Within this context, the approach to management of low-risk patients with neutropenic fever is inconsistent with the available evidence across many Australian treating centres. These clinical guidelines define and clarify an accepted standard of care for this patient group given the current evidence base. The Multinational Association for Supportive Care in Cancer risk index is presented as the preferred risk assessment tool for determining patient risk. Suitability of ambulatory care within specific patient populations is discussed, with defined eligibility criteria provided to guide clinical decision-making. Detailed recommendations for implementing appropriate ambulatory strategies, such as early discharge and outpatient antibiotic therapy, are also provided. Due consideration is given to infrastructural requirements and other supportive measures at a resourcing and operational level. An analysis of the relevant health economics is also presented. © 2011 The Authors. Internal Medicine Journal © 2011 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

Hepatitis-Associated Liver Cancer: Gaps and Opportunities to Improve Care

PubMed Central

McMahon, Brian; Block, Timothy; Cohen, Chari; Evans, Alison A.; Hosangadi, Anu; London, W. Thomas; Sherman, Morris

2016-01-01

The global burden of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC; primary liver cancer) is increasing. HCC is often unaccompanied by clear symptomatology, causing patients to be unaware of their disease. Moreover, effective treatment for those with advanced disease is lacking. As such, effective surveillance and early detection of HCC are essential. However, current screening and surveillance guidelines are not being fully implemented. Some at-risk populations fall outside of the guidelines, and patients who are screened are often not diagnosed at an early enough stage for treatment to be effective. From March 17 to 19, 2015, the Hepatitis B Foundation sponsored a workshop to identify gaps and limitations in current approaches to the detection and treatment of HCC and to define research priorities and opportunities for advocacy. In this Commentary, we summarize areas for further research and action that were discussed throughout the workshop to improve the recognition of liver disease generally, improve the recognition of liver cancer risk, and improve the recognition that screening for HCC makes a life-saving difference. Participants agreed that primary prevention of HCC relies on prevention and treatment of viral hepatitis and other underlying etiologies. Earlier diagnosis (secondary prevention) needs to be substantially improved. Areas for attention include increasing practitioner awareness, better definition of at-risk populations, and improved performance of screening approaches (ultrasound, biomarkers for detection, risk stratification, targeted therapies). The heterogeneous nature of HCC makes it unlikely that a single therapeutic agent will be universally effective. Medical management will benefit from the development of new, targeted treatment approaches. PMID:26626106

The probability of seizures during EEG monitoring in critically ill adults.

PubMed

Westover, M Brandon; Shafi, Mouhsin M; Bianchi, Matt T; Moura, Lidia M V R; O'Rourke, Deirdre; Rosenthal, Eric S; Chu, Catherine J; Donovan, Samantha; Hoch, Daniel B; Kilbride, Ronan D; Cole, Andrew J; Cash, Sydney S

2015-03-01

To characterize the risk for seizures over time in relation to EEG findings in hospitalized adults undergoing continuous EEG monitoring (cEEG). Retrospective analysis of cEEG data and medical records from 625 consecutive adult inpatients monitored at a tertiary medical center. Using survival analysis methods, we estimated the time-dependent probability that a seizure will occur within the next 72-h, if no seizure has occurred yet, as a function of EEG abnormalities detected so far. Seizures occurred in 27% (168/625). The first seizure occurred early (<30min of monitoring) in 58% (98/168). In 527 patients without early seizures, 159 (30%) had early epileptiform abnormalities, versus 368 (70%) without. Seizures were eventually detected in 25% of patients with early epileptiform discharges, versus 8% without early discharges. The 72-h risk of seizures declined below 5% if no epileptiform abnormalities were present in the first two hours, whereas 16h of monitoring were required when epileptiform discharges were present. 20% (74/388) of patients without early epileptiform abnormalities later developed them; 23% (17/74) of these ultimately had seizures. Only 4% (12/294) experienced a seizure without preceding epileptiform abnormalities. Seizure risk in acute neurological illness decays rapidly, at a rate dependent on abnormalities detected early during monitoring. This study demonstrates that substantial risk stratification is possible based on early EEG abnormalities. These findings have implications for patient-specific determination of the required duration of cEEG monitoring in hospitalized patients. Copyright © 2014 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of the T-SPOT.CMV interferon-γ release assay in renal transplant recipients: A single center cohort study

PubMed Central

Borrows, Richard; Ball, Simon

2018-01-01

Background The measurement of CMV specific cellular immunity in organ transplant recipients could contribute additional acuity to serology based, CMV infection risk stratification, facilitating optimisation of immunosuppression and anti-viral prophylaxis. Methods A pilot study of renal transplant recipient (RTR’s) responses in the T-SPOT.CMV ELISPOT based assay. 108 RTR’s were recruited 3 months post-transplantation, immediately prior to the cessation of stratified anti-viral prophylaxis, used in recipients from seropositive donors. RTR’s were monitored for CMV viremia and disease. Cellular responses to peptides derived from CMV IE1 and pp65 were measured, using the T-SPOT.CMV assay. Results At recruitment, no CMV specific cellular immunity was detected by T-SPOT.CMV in CMV seronegative recipients (IE1 ≤ 1spot / 2.5x105 PBMC’s; pp65 ≤ 3 spots / 2.5x105 PBMC’s). At recruitment, CMV sero-positive recipients who made a robust response to both IE1 (>25 spots / 2.5x105 PBMC’s) and pp65 (>50 spots / 2.5x105 PBMC’s), were less likely to develop high level viremia than those who responded to one or neither antigen (0/28 vs 5/25; p<0.02). Conclusions In CMV seronegative RTR’s, CMV specific cellular immunity measured by T-SPOT.CMV was not detected prior to cessation of anti-viral prophylaxis. This differs from recent reports of CMV specific cellular immunity in a proportion of CMV seronegative RTR’s, associated with protection from CMV infection. In seropositive RTR’s, a dual response to IE1 and pp65 at recruitment, was associated with protection from subsequent viremia. This suggests that assessing the diversity of response to CMV antigens, may enhance risk stratification in this group. PMID:29558479

Diagnostic and prognostic value of cardiac troponin I assays in patients admitted with symptoms suggestive of acute coronary syndrome.

PubMed

Apple, Fred S; Quist, Heidi E; Murakami, MaryAnn M

2004-04-01

Increasing numbers of patients are presenting to emergency departments with symptoms suggestive of an acute myocardial infarction. To demonstrate the comparative performance of the Ortho Vitros Troponin I and Beckman Access AccuTnI assays used to detect myocardial infarction and to develop risk stratification schemes for all-cause death in patients who presented with myocardial ischemia symptoms that were suggestive of acute coronary syndrome (ACS). The prospective enrollment of patients with ACS and the measurement of serial plasma samples by 2 commercial cardiac troponin I (cTnI) assays. A metropolitan medical center that admitted patients with ACS during a 2-month period. The study population consisted of 200 consecutively admitted patients who presented with symptoms that were suggestive of ACS. Correlation scatterplots showed no significant bias between cTnI assays based on 659 specimens across the dynamic range of each assay. Only minor differences in slopes and intercepts were observed between assays when correlations were based across selected concentration ranges. The receiver operating characteristic curve areas for the detection of myocardial infarction were not significantly different (Ortho,.991; Beckman,.995). At the 99th percentile (Beckman, 0.04 microg/L; Ortho, 0.08 microg/L), each assay demonstrated 100% sensitivity with 78% and 80% specificity, respectively. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and the log-rank test were used to compare time-to-event data. Patients with increased baseline cTnI values had higher odds ratios of death than did those with normal concentrations. For Ortho, the 99th percentile cutoff was 5.9, and the 10% coefficient of variation cutoff was 10.3; for Beckman, the 99th percentile cutoff was 31.4, and the 10% coefficient of variation cutoff was 15.3. Comparable diagnostic and risk stratification abilities were demonstrated in patients with ACS by the Ortho Vitros and Beckman Access cTnI assays, with no significant analytic bias between cTnI assays.

Characteristics of new solid nodules detected in incidence screening rounds of low-dose CT lung cancer screening: the NELSON study.

PubMed

Walter, Joan E; Heuvelmans, Marjolein A; Bock, Geertruida H de; Yousaf-Khan, Uraujh; Groen, Harry J M; Aalst, Carlijn M van der; Nackaerts, Kristiaan; Ooijen, Peter M A van; Koning, Harry J de; Vliegenthart, Rozemarijn; Oudkerk, Matthijs

2018-04-16

New nodules after baseline are regularly found in low-dose CT lung cancer screening and have a high lung cancer probability. It is unknown whether morphological and location characteristics can improve new nodule risk stratification by size. Solid non-calcified nodules detected during incidence screening rounds of the randomised controlled Dutch-Belgian lung cancer screening (NELSON) trial and registered as new or previously below detection limit (15 mm 3 ) were included. A multivariate logistic regression analysis with lung cancer as outcome was performed, including previously established volume cut-offs (<30 mm 3 , 30-<200 mm 3 and ≥200 mm 3 ) and nodule characteristics (location, distribution, shape, margin and visibility <15 mm 3 in retrospect). Overall, 1280 new nodules were included with 73 (6%) being lung cancer. Of nodules ≥30 mm 3 at detection and visible <15 mm 3 in retrospect, 22% (6/27) were lung cancer. Discrimination based on volume cut-offs (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC): 0.80, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.84) and continuous volume (AUC: 0.82, 95% CI 0.77 to 0.87) was similar. After adjustment for volume cut-offs, only location in the right upper lobe (OR 2.0, P=0.012), central distribution (OR 2.4, P=0.001) and visibility <15 mm 3 in retrospect (OR 4.7, P=0.003) remained significant predictors for lung cancer. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P=0.75) and assessment of bootstrap calibration curves indicated adequate model fit. Discrimination based on the continuous model probability (AUC: 0.85, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.89) was superior to volume cut-offs alone, but when stratified into three risk groups (AUC: 0.82, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.86), discrimination was similar. Contrary to morphological nodule characteristics, growth-independent characteristics may further improve volume-based new nodule lung cancer prediction, but in a three-category stratification approach, this is limited. ISRCTN63545820; pre-results. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Implications of delayed bone marrow aspirations at the end of treatment induction for risk stratification and outcome in children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia.

PubMed

Zuna, Jan; Moericke, Anja; Arens, Mari; Koehler, Rolf; Panzer-Grümayer, Renate; Bartram, Claus R; Fischer, Susanna; Fronkova, Eva; Zaliova, Marketa; Schrauder, André; Stanulla, Martin; Zimmermann, Martin; Trka, Jan; Stary, Jan; Attarbaschi, Andishe; Mann, Georg; Schrappe, Martin; Cario, Gunnar

2016-06-01

Minimal residual disease (MRD) at the end of induction therapy is important for risk stratification of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL), but bone marrow (BM) aspiration is often postponed or must be repeated to fulfil qualitative and quantitative criteria for morphological assessment of haematological remission and/or MRD analysis. The impact of BM aspiration delay on measured MRD levels and resulting risk stratification is currently unknown. We analysed paired MRD data of 289 paediatric ALL patients requiring a repeat BM aspiration. MRD levels differed in 108 patients (37%) with a decrease in the majority (85/108). This would have resulted in different risk group allocation in 64 of 289 patients (23%) when applying the ALL-Berlin-Frankfurt-Münster 2000 criteria. MRD change was associated with the duration of delay; 40% of patients with delay ≥7 days had a shift to lower MRD levels compared to only 18% after a shorter delay. Patients MRD-positive at the original but MRD-negative at the repeat BM aspiration (n = 50) had a worse 5-year event-free survival than those already negative at first aspiration (n = 115) (86 ± 5% vs. 94 ± 2%; P = 0·024). We conclude that BM aspirations should be pursued as scheduled in the protocol because delayed MRD sampling at end of induction may result in false-low MRD load and distort MRD-based risk assessment. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Less is More: Comparing the 2015 and 2009 American Thyroid Association Guidelines for Thyroid Nodules and Cancer.

PubMed

Kim, Brian W; Yousman, Wina; Wong, Wei Xiang; Cheng, Cheng; McAninch, Elizabeth A

2016-06-01

The American Thyroid Association (ATA) has recently revised its guidance pertaining to thyroid nodules and follicular cell-derived thyroid cancer. The 2015 guidelines are massive in both scope and scale, with changes in the organizational approach to risk stratification of nodules and cancer, as well as multiple sections covering new material. This review highlights the major structural and organizational changes, focusing attention on the most dramatically changed recommendations, that is, those recommendations that clinicians will find striking because they call for significant divergence from prior clinical practice. The revised approach to thyroid nodule risk stratification is based on sonographic pattern, with an emphasis on pattern rather than growth in the long-term surveillance of nodules. Accumulating data have also been incorporated into an updated risk stratification scheme for thyroid cancer that increases the size of the low-risk pool, in part because low-volume lymph nodal metastases are now considered low risk. The most fundamentally altered recommendation is that lobectomy might be considered as the initial surgical approach for follicular cell-derived thyroid cancers from 1 to 4 cm in size. The underlying theme of the 2015 ATA guidelines is that "less is more." As these new recommendations are adopted, fewer fine-needle aspiration biopsies will need to be done, less extensive surgeries will become more common, less radioactive iodine will be used either for treatment or for diagnostics, and less stimulated thyroglobulin testing will be done. Mastery of these guidelines will help clinicians know when it is reasonable to do less, thus providing responsibly individualized therapy for their patients.

Accurate and robust genomic prediction of celiac disease using statistical learning.

PubMed

Abraham, Gad; Tye-Din, Jason A; Bhalala, Oneil G; Kowalczyk, Adam; Zobel, Justin; Inouye, Michael

2014-02-01

Practical application of genomic-based risk stratification to clinical diagnosis is appealing yet performance varies widely depending on the disease and genomic risk score (GRS) method. Celiac disease (CD), a common immune-mediated illness, is strongly genetically determined and requires specific HLA haplotypes. HLA testing can exclude diagnosis but has low specificity, providing little information suitable for clinical risk stratification. Using six European cohorts, we provide a proof-of-concept that statistical learning approaches which simultaneously model all SNPs can generate robust and highly accurate predictive models of CD based on genome-wide SNP profiles. The high predictive capacity replicated both in cross-validation within each cohort (AUC of 0.87-0.89) and in independent replication across cohorts (AUC of 0.86-0.9), despite differences in ethnicity. The models explained 30-35% of disease variance and up to ∼43% of heritability. The GRS's utility was assessed in different clinically relevant settings. Comparable to HLA typing, the GRS can be used to identify individuals without CD with ≥99.6% negative predictive value however, unlike HLA typing, fine-scale stratification of individuals into categories of higher-risk for CD can identify those that would benefit from more invasive and costly definitive testing. The GRS is flexible and its performance can be adapted to the clinical situation by adjusting the threshold cut-off. Despite explaining a minority of disease heritability, our findings indicate a genomic risk score provides clinically relevant information to improve upon current diagnostic pathways for CD and support further studies evaluating the clinical utility of this approach in CD and other complex diseases.

Risk stratification of gallbladder polyps (1-2 cm) for surgical intervention with 18F-FDG PET/CT.

PubMed

Lee, Jaehoon; Yun, Mijin; Kim, Kyoung-Sik; Lee, Jong-Doo; Kim, Chun K

2012-03-01

We assessed the value of (18)F-FDG uptake in the gallbladder polyp (GP) in risk stratification for surgical intervention and the optimal cutoff level of the parameters derived from GP (18)F-FDG uptake for differentiating malignant from benign etiologies in a select, homogeneous group of patients with 1- to 2-cm GPs. Fifty patients with 1- to 2-cm GPs incidentally found on the CT portion of PET/CT were retrospectively analyzed. All patients had histologic diagnoses. GP (18)F-FDG activity was visually scored positive (≥liver) or negative (

Speckle-Tracking Echocardiography Improves Pre-operative Risk Stratification Before the Total Cavopulmonary Connection.

PubMed

Park, Patsy W; Atz, Andrew M; Taylor, Carolyn L; Chowdhury, Shahryar M

2017-05-01

Single-ventricle patients with elevated pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) or end-diastolic pressure (EDP) are excluded from undergoing total cavopulmonary connection (TCPC). However, a subset of patients deemed to be at acceptable risk experience prolonged length of stay (LOS) after TCPC. Routine assessment of ventricular function has been inadequate in identifying these high-risk patients. Speckle-tracking echocardiography (STE) is a novel method for assessment of myocardial deformation that may be useful in single-ventricle patients. The aim of this study was to perform a contemporary preoperative risk assessment for prolonged LOS to determine whether STE improves risk stratification before TCPC. Our single institution's perioperative data were retrospectively collected. The primary outcome was postoperative LOS >14 days. Longitudinal and circumferential STE deformation measures were analyzed on echocardiograms obtained during preoperative catheterization. Patient-specific, echocardiographic, and catheterization data were included in multivariable logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic area under the curves (AUC) were analyzed. From 2007 to 2014, 135 patients who underwent TCPC were included in the analysis. The median LOS was 11 (IQR 9-14) days. The PVR (P < .01) and circumferential strain rate (CSR) (P < .01) were the only variables independently associated with LOS >14 days. For every 0.1 s -1 CSR increased, there was a 20% increased odds of prolonged LOS. The AUC for CSR was 0.70. The AUC for PVR and EDP combined was 0.68. The AUC for PVR, EDP, and CSR combined was 0.73. Preoperative CSR is independently associated with LOS >14 days and improves preoperative risk stratification in patients undergoing TCPC. Copyright © 2017 American Society of Echocardiography. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Major bleeding events and risk stratification of antithrombotic agents in hemodialysis: Results from the DOPPS

PubMed Central

Sood, Manish M.; Larkina, Maria; Thumma, Jyothi R.; Tentori, Francesca; Gillespie, Brenda W.; Fukuhara, Shunichi; Mendelssohn, David C.; Chan, Kevin; de Sequera, Patricia; Komenda, Paul; Rigatto, Claudio; Robinson, Bruce M.

2013-01-01

Benefits and risks of antithrombotic agents remain unclear in the hemodialysis population. We aimed to determine variation in antithrombotic agent use, rates of major bleeding events, and to determine factors predictive of stroke and bleeding to allow for risk stratification, enabling more rational decisions about using antithrombotic agents. The sample included 48,144 patients in 12 countries in the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study Phase I–IV. Antithrombotic agents included oral anticoagulants (OAC), ASA and anti-platelet agents (APA). OAC prescription, comorbidities and vascular access were assessed at study entry; data on clinical events including hospitalization due to bleeding were collected every four months during follow-up. There was wide variation in OAC (0.3–18%), APA (3–25%) and ASA use (8–36%), and major bleeding rates (0.05–0.22 events/year) among countries. Rates of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and bleeding events requiring hospitalization were elevated in patients prescribed OAC across adjusted models. The CHADS2 score predicted the risk of stroke in atrial fibrillation patients. Gastrointestinal bleeding in the past 12 months was highly predictive of major bleeding events; for patients with previous gastrointestinal bleeding, the rate of bleeding exceeded the rate of stroke by at least 2-fold across categories of CHADS2 score. Prescription of antithrombotic agents varied greatly. The CHADS2 score and a history of gastrointestinal bleeding were predictive of stroke and bleeding events, respectively, with bleeding rates substantially exceeding stroke rates in all groups including patients at high stroke risk. Appropriate risk stratification and a cautious approach should be considered before OAC use in the dialysis population. PMID:23677245

The HAT Score-A Simple Risk Stratification Score for Coagulopathic Bleeding During Adult Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation.

PubMed

Lonergan, Terence; Herr, Daniel; Kon, Zachary; Menaker, Jay; Rector, Raymond; Tanaka, Kenichi; Mazzeffi, Michael

2017-06-01

The study objective was to create an adult extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) coagulopathic bleeding risk score. Secondary analysis was performed on an existing retrospective cohort. Pre-ECMO variables were tested for association with coagulopathic bleeding, and those with the strongest association were included in a multivariable model. Using this model, a risk stratification score was created. The score's utility was validated by comparing bleeding and transfusion rates between score levels. Bleeding also was examined after stratifying by nadir platelet count and overanticoagulation. Predictive power of the score was compared against the risk score for major bleeding during anti-coagulation for atrial fibrillation (HAS-BLED). Tertiary care academic medical center. The study comprised patients who received venoarterial or venovenous ECMO over a 3-year period, excluding those with an identified source of surgical bleeding during exploration. None. Fifty-three (47.3%) of 112 patients experienced coagulopathic bleeding. A 3-variable score-hypertension, age greater than 65, and ECMO type (HAT)-had fair predictive value (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.66) and was superior to HAS-BLED (AUC = 0.64). As the HAT score increased from 0 to 3, bleeding rates also increased as follows: 30.8%, 48.7%, 63.0%, and 71.4%, respectively. Platelet and fresh frozen plasma transfusion tended to increase with the HAT score, but red blood cell transfusion did not. Nadir platelet count less than 50×10 3 /µL and overanticoagulation during ECMO increased the AUC for the model to 0.73, suggesting additive risk. The HAT score may allow for bleeding risk stratification in adult ECMO patients. Future studies in larger cohorts are necessary to confirm these findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hyperuricemia and the risk of ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation--could it refine clinical risk stratification in AF?

PubMed

Chao, Tze-Fan; Liu, Chia-Jen; Chen, Su-Jung; Wang, Kang-Ling; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Chang, Shih-Lin; Lo, Li-Wei; Hu, Yu-Feng; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Tsao, Hsuan-Ming; Chen, Shih-Ann

2014-01-01

Although hyperuricemia has been reported to be a risk factor of stroke, the relationship between hyperuricemia and stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) remains uncertain. The goal of the present study was to investigate whether hyperuricemia could potentially refine clinical risk stratification in AF. This study used the "National Health Insurance Research Database" in Taiwan. A total of 7601 AF patients who did not receive antiplatelet agents or oral anticoagulants were identified as the study population. Hyperuricemia was defined as having at least one episode of gout attack necessitating long-term treatment with uric acid-lowering agents. The association between hyperuricemia and ischemic stroke was analyzed. During the follow up of 3.0±2.7 years, 1116 patients (14.7%) experienced ischemic stroke with an annual rate of around 4.9%. Hyperuricemia significantly predicts stroke, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.280 after adjusting for CHA2DS2-VASc score and other comorbidities. Among the 376 patients with a CHA2DS2VASc score of 0, hyperuricemia can further stratify them into 2 groups with different stroke rates (7.1% versus 1.3%, p=0.020). The adjusted HR of hyperuricemia in predicting ischemic stroke diminished from 7.491 for patients with a CHA2DS2-VASc score of 0 to 1.659 for those with a score of 3, and became insignificant for patients with a score ≥4. Hyperuricemia was a significant risk factor of stroke which could potentially refine the clinical risk stratification in AF. It deserves a prospective trial to investigate whether it would change the current strategy for stroke preventions using oral anticoagulants. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prognostic stratification model for patients with stage I non-small cell lung cancer adenocarcinoma treated with surgical resection without adjuvant therapies using metabolic features measured on F-18 FDG PET and postoperative pathologic factors.

PubMed

Kang, Yeon-Koo; Song, Yoo Sung; Cho, Sukki; Jheon, Sanghoon; Lee, Won Woo; Kim, Kwhanmien; Kim, Sang Eun

2018-05-01

In the management of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), the prognostic stratification of stage I tumors without indication of adjuvant therapy, remains to be elucidated in order to better select patients who can benefit from additional therapies. We aimed to stratify the prognosis of patients with stage I NSCLC adenocarcinoma using clinicopathologic factors and F-18 FDG PET. We retrospectively enrolled 128 patients with stage I NSCLC without any high-risk factors, who underwent curative surgical resection without adjuvant therapies. Preoperative clinical and postoperative pathologic factors were evaluated by medical record review. Standardized uptake value corrected with lean body mass (SUL max ) was measured on F-18 FDG PET. Among the factors, independent predictors for recurrence-free survival (RFS) were selected using univariate and stepwise multivariate survival analyses. A prognostic stratification model for RFS was designed using the selected factors. Tumors recurred in nineteen patients (14.8%). Among the investigated clinicopathologic and FDG PET factors, SUL max on PET and spread through air spaces (STAS) on pathologic review were determined to be independent prognostic factors for RFS. A prognostic model was designed using these two factors in the following manner: (1) Low-risk: SUL max  ≤ 1.9 and no STAS, (2) intermediate-risk: neither low-risk nor high-risk, (3) high-risk: SUL max> 1.9 and observed STAS. This model exhibited significant predictive power for RFS. We showed that FDG uptake and STAS are significant prognostic markers in stage I NSCLC adenocarcinoma treated with surgical resection without adjuvant therapies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reduction of MRI-targeted biopsies in men with low-risk prostate cancer on active surveillance by stratifying to PI-RADS and PSA-density, with different thresholds for significant disease.

PubMed

Schoots, Ivo G; Osses, Daniel F; Drost, Frank-Jan H; Verbeek, Jan F M; Remmers, Sebastiaan; van Leenders, Geert J L H; Bangma, Chris H; Roobol, Monique J

2018-02-01

The fear of undergrading prostate cancer (PCa) in men on active surveillance (AS) have led to strict criteria for monitoring, which have resulted in good long-term cancer-specific survival, proving the safety of this approach. Reducing undergrading, MRI-targeted biopsies are increasingly used in men with low-risk disease despite their undefined role yet. The objective of this study is to investigate the rate of upgrading using MRI-targeted biopsies in men with low-risk disease on AS, stratified on the basis of PI-RADS and PSA-density, with the aim to reduce potential unnecessary repeat biopsy procedures. A total of 331 men were prospectively enrolled following the MRI-PRIAS protocol. MR imaging was according to Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PI-RADSv2) guidelines. Suspicious MRI lesions (PI-RADS 3-5) were additionally targeted by MRI-TRUS fusion biopsies. Outcome measure was upgrading to Gleason score (GS) ≥3+4 with MRI-targeted biopsies, stratified for PI-RADS and PSA-density. In total, 25% (82/331) of men on AS showed upgrading from GS 3+3. Only 3% (11/331) was upgraded to GS ≥8. In 60% (198/331) a suspicious MRI lesion was identified, but in only 41% (82/198) of men upgrading was confirmed. PI-RADS 3, 4 and 5 categorized index lesions, showed upgrading in 30%, 34% and 66% of men, respectively. Stratification to PI-RADS 4-5, instead of PI-RADS 3-5, would have missed a small number of high volume Gleason 4 PCa in PI-RADS 3 category. However, further stratification into PI-RADS 3 lesions and PSA-density <0.15 ng/mL 2 could result in a safe targeted biopsy reduction of 36% in this category, without missing any upgrades. Stratification with the combination of PI-RADS and PSA-density may reduce unnecessary additional MRI biopsy testing. Overall, the high rate of detected upgrading in men on AS may result in an unintended tightening of continuing in AS. Since patients, included under current AS criteria showed extremely favorable outcome, there might be no need to further restrict continuing on AS with MRI and targeted biopsies.

Noninvasive Cardiovascular Risk Assessment of the Asymptomatic Diabetic Patient

PubMed Central

Budoff, Matthew J.; Raggi, Paolo; Beller, George A.; Berman, Daniel S.; Druz, Regina S.; Malik, Shaista; Rigolin, Vera H.; Weigold, Wm. Guy; Soman, Prem

2017-01-01

Increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes is well established; diabetes is associated with at least a 2-fold increased risk of coronary heart disease. Approximately two-thirds of deaths among persons with diabetes are related to cardiovascular disease. Previously, diabetes was regarded as a “coronary risk equivalent,” implying a high 10-year cardiovascular risk for every diabetes patient. Following the original study by Haffner et al., multiple studies from different cohorts provided varying conclusions on the validity of the concept of coronary risk equivalency in patients with diabetes. New guidelines have started to acknowledge the heterogeneity in risk and include different treatment recommendations for diabetic patients without other risk factors who are considered to be at lower risk. Furthermore, guidelines have suggested that further risk stratification in patients with diabetes is warranted before universal treatment. The Imaging Council of the American College of Cardiology systematically reviewed all modalities commonly used for risk stratification in persons with diabetes mellitus and summarized the data and recommendations. This document reviews the evidence regarding the use of noninvasive testing to stratify asymptomatic patients with diabetes with regard to coronary heart disease risk and develops an algorithm for screening based on available data. PMID:26846937

Combination of methylated-DNA precipitation and methylation-sensitive restriction enzymes (COMPARE-MS) for the rapid, sensitive and quantitative detection of DNA methylation.

PubMed

Yegnasubramanian, Srinivasan; Lin, Xiaohui; Haffner, Michael C; DeMarzo, Angelo M; Nelson, William G

2006-02-09

Hypermethylation of CpG island (CGI) sequences is a nearly universal somatic genome alteration in cancer. Rapid and sensitive detection of DNA hypermethylation would aid in cancer diagnosis and risk stratification. We present a novel technique, called COMPARE-MS, that can rapidly and quantitatively detect CGI hypermethylation with high sensitivity and specificity in hundreds of samples simultaneously. To quantitate CGI hypermethylation, COMPARE-MS uses real-time PCR of DNA that was first digested by methylation-sensitive restriction enzymes and then precipitated by methyl-binding domain polypeptides immobilized on a magnetic solid matrix. We show that COMPARE-MS could detect five genome equivalents of methylated CGIs in a 1000- to 10,000-fold excess of unmethylated DNA. COMPARE-MS was used to rapidly quantitate hypermethylation at multiple CGIs in >155 prostate tissues, including benign and malignant prostate specimens, and prostate cell lines. This analysis showed that GSTP1, MDR1 and PTGS2 CGI hypermethylation as determined by COMPARE-MS could differentiate between malignant and benign prostate with sensitivities >95% and specificities approaching 100%. This novel technology could significantly improve our ability to detect CGI hypermethylation.

Repeatability of Central and Peripheral Pulse Wave Velocity Measures: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

PubMed Central

Tanaka, Hirofumi; Palta, Priya; Patel, Mehul D.; Camplain, Ricky; Couper, David; Cheng, Susan; Al Qunaibet, Ada; Poon, Anna K.; Heiss, Gerardo

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND Arterial stiffness measures are emerging tools for risk assessment and stratification for hypertension and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV) is an established measure of central arterial stiffness. Other measures of PWV include femoral-ankle (faPWV), a measure of peripheral stiffness, and brachial-ankle PWV (baPWV), a composite measure of central and peripheral stiffness. Repeatability of central, peripheral, and composite PWV measures has not been adequately examined or compared. METHODS Participants (n = 79; mean age 75.7 years; USA) from a repeatability study nested within the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study visit 5 (2011–2013) underwent 2 standardized visits, 4–8 weeks apart. Trained technicians obtained 2 PWV measurements at each visit using the VP-1000 Plus system. We calculated the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), SE of measurement, and minimal detectable change (MDC95; 95% confidence interval) and difference (MDD). RESULTS The ICCs and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were 0.70 (0.59, 0.81) for cfPWV, 0.84 (0.78, 0.90) for baPWV, and 0.69 (0.59, 0.79) for faPWV. The MDC95 between repeat measures within an individual was 411.0cm/s for cfPWV, 370.6cm/s for baPWV, and 301.4cm/s for faPWV. The MDD for 2 independent samples of 100 per group was 139.3cm/s for cfPWV, 172.3cm/s for baPWV, and 100.4cm/s for faPWV. CONCLUSIONS Repeatability was acceptable for all PWV measures in a multicenter, population-based study of older adults and supports its use in epidemiologic studies. Quantifying PWV measurement variation is critical for applications to risk assessment and stratification and eventual translation to clinical practice. PMID:26232036

Novel Molecular Imaging Approaches to Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Risk Stratification

PubMed Central

Toczek, Jakub; Meadows, Judith L.; Sadeghi, Mehran M.

2015-01-01

Selection of patients for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair is currently based on aneurysm size, growth rate and symptoms. Molecular imaging of biological processes associated with aneurysm growth and rupture, e.g., inflammation and matrix remodeling, could improve patient risk stratification and lead to a reduction in AAA morbidity and mortality. 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) and ultrasmall superparamagnetic particles of iron oxide (USPIO) magnetic resonance imaging are two novel approaches to AAA imaging evaluated in clinical trials. A variety of other tracers, including those that target inflammatory cells and proteolytic enzymes (e.g., integrin αvβ3 and matrix metalloproteinases), have proven effective in preclinical models of AAA and show great potential for clinical translation. PMID:26763279

Primary thrombocytosis in children

PubMed Central

Kucine, Nicole; Chastain, Katherine M.; Mahler, Michelle B.; Bussel, James B.

2014-01-01

Myeloproliferative neoplasms are uncommon disorders in children, for which we have limited understanding of the pathogenesis and optimal management. JAK2 and MPL mutations, while common drivers of myeloproliferative neoplasms in adult patients, are not clearly linked to pediatric disease. Management and clinical outcomes in adults have been well delineated with defined recommendations for risk stratification and treatment. This is not the case for pediatric patients, for whom there is neither a standard approach to workup nor any consensus regarding management. This review will discuss thrombocytosis in children, including causes of thrombocytosis in children, the limited knowledge we have regarding pediatric primary thrombocytosis, and our thoughts on potential risk stratification and management, and future questions to be answered by laboratory research and collaborative clinical study. PMID:24688110

Risk stratification in myelodysplastic syndromes: is there a role for gene expression profiling?

PubMed

Zeidan, Amer M; Prebet, Thomas; Saad Aldin, Ehab; Gore, Steven David

2014-04-01

Evaluation of: Pellagatti A, Benner A, Mills KI et al. Identification of gene expression-based prognostic markers in the hematopoietic stem cells of patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. J. Clin. Oncol. 31(28), 3557-3564 (2013). Patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) exhibit wide heterogeneity in clinical outcomes making accurate risk-stratification an integral part of the risk-adaptive management paradigm. Current prognostic schemes for MDS rely on clinicopathological parameters. Despite the increasing knowledge of the genetic landscape of MDS and the prognostic impact of many newly discovered molecular aberrations, none to date has been incorporated formally into the major risk models. Efforts are ongoing to use data generated from genome-wide high-throughput techniques to improve the 'individualized' outcome prediction for patients. We here discuss an important paper in which gene expression profiling (GEP) technology was applied to marrow CD34(+) cells from 125 MDS patients to generate and validate a standardized GEP-based prognostic signature.

Syncope: risk stratification and clinical decision making.

PubMed

Peeters, Suzanne Y G; Hoek, Amber E; Mollink, Susan M; Huff, J Stephen

2014-04-01

Syncope is a common occurrence in the emergency department, accounting for approximately 1% to 3% of presentations. Syncope is best defined as a brief loss of consciousness and postural tone followed by spontaneous and complete recovery. The spectrum of etiologies ranges from benign to life threatening, and a structured approach to evaluating these patients is key to providing care that is thorough, yet cost-effective. This issue reviews the most relevant evidence for managing and risk stratifying the syncope patient, beginning with a focused history, physical examination, electrocardiogram, and tailored diagnostic testing. Several risk stratification decision rules are compared for performance in various scenarios, including how age and associated comorbidities may predict short-term and long-term adverse events. An algorithm for structured, evidence-based care of the syncope patient is included to ensure that patients requiring hospitalization are managed appropriately and those with benign causes are discharged safely.

Risk stratification of childhood medulloblastoma in the molecular era: the current consensus.

PubMed

Ramaswamy, Vijay; Remke, Marc; Bouffet, Eric; Bailey, Simon; Clifford, Steven C; Doz, Francois; Kool, Marcel; Dufour, Christelle; Vassal, Gilles; Milde, Till; Witt, Olaf; von Hoff, Katja; Pietsch, Torsten; Northcott, Paul A; Gajjar, Amar; Robinson, Giles W; Padovani, Laetitia; André, Nicolas; Massimino, Maura; Pizer, Barry; Packer, Roger; Rutkowski, Stefan; Pfister, Stefan M; Taylor, Michael D; Pomeroy, Scott L

2016-06-01

Historical risk stratification criteria for medulloblastoma rely primarily on clinicopathological variables pertaining to age, presence of metastases, extent of resection, histological subtypes and in some instances individual genetic aberrations such as MYC and MYCN amplification. In 2010, an international panel of experts established consensus defining four main subgroups of medulloblastoma (WNT, SHH, Group 3 and Group 4) delineated by transcriptional profiling. This has led to the current generation of biomarker-driven clinical trials assigning WNT tumors to a favorable prognosis group in addition to clinicopathological criteria including MYC and MYCN gene amplifications. However, outcome prediction of non-WNT subgroups is a challenge due to inconsistent survival reports. In 2015, a consensus conference was convened in Heidelberg with the objective to further refine the risk stratification in the context of subgroups and agree on a definition of risk groups of non-infant, childhood medulloblastoma (ages 3-17). Published and unpublished data over the past 5 years were reviewed, and a consensus was reached regarding the level of evidence for currently available biomarkers. The following risk groups were defined based on current survival rates: low risk (>90 % survival), average (standard) risk (75-90 % survival), high risk (50-75 % survival) and very high risk (<50 % survival) disease. The WNT subgroup and non-metastatic Group 4 tumors with whole chromosome 11 loss or whole chromosome 17 gain were recognized as low-risk tumors that may qualify for reduced therapy. High-risk strata were defined as patients with metastatic SHH or Group 4 tumors, or MYCN-amplified SHH medulloblastomas. Very high-risk patients are Group 3 with metastases or SHH with TP53 mutation. In addition, a number of consensus points were reached that should be standardized across future clinical trials. Although we anticipate new data will emerge from currently ongoing and recently completed clinical trials, this consensus can serve as an outline for prioritization of certain molecular subsets of tumors to define and validate risk groups as a basis for future clinical trials.

Risk stratification of childhood medulloblastoma in the molecular era: The Current Consensus

PubMed Central

Ramaswamy, Vijay; Remke, Marc; Bouffet, Eric; Bailey, Simon; Clifford, Steven C.; Doz, Francois; Kool, Marcel; Dufour, Christelle; Vassal, Gilles; Milde, Till; Witt, Olaf; von Hoff, Katja; Pietsch, Torsten; Northcott, Paul A.; Gajjar, Amar; Robinson, Giles W.; Padovani, Laetitia; André, Nicolas; Massimino, Maura; Pizer, Barry; Packer, Roger; Rutkowski, Stefan; Pfister, Stefan M.; Taylor, Michael D.; Pomeroy, Scott L.

2016-01-01

Historical risk stratification criteria for medulloblastoma rely primarily on clinicopathological variables pertaining to age, presence of metastases, extent of resection, histological subtypes and in some instances individual genetic aberrations such as MYC and MYCN amplification. In 2010, an international panel of experts established consensus defining four main subgroups of medulloblastoma (WNT, SHH, Group 3 and Group 4) delineated by transcriptional profiling. This has led to the current generation of biomarker-driven clinical trials assigning WNT tumors to a favorable prognosis group in addition to clinicopathological criteria including MYC and MYCN gene amplifications. However, outcome prediction of non-WNT subgroups is a challenge due to inconsistent survival reports. In 2015, a consensus conference was convened in Heidelberg with the objective to further refine the risk stratification in the context of subgroups and agree on a definition of risk groups of non-infant, childhood medulloblastoma (ages 3–17). Published and unpublished data over the past five years were reviewed, and a consensus was reached regarding the level of evidence for currently available biomarkers. The following risk groups were defined based on current survival rates: low risk (>90% survival), average (standard) risk (75–90% survival), high risk (50–75% survival) and very high risk (<50% survival) disease. The WNT subgroup and non-metastatic Group 4 tumors with whole chromosome 11 loss or whole chromosome 17 gain were recognized as low risk tumors that may qualify for reduced therapy. High-risk strata were defined as patients with metastatic SHH or Group 4 tumors, or MYCN amplified SHH medulloblastomas. Very high-risk patients are Group 3 with metastases or SHH with TP53 mutation. In addition, a number of consensus points were reached that should be standardized across future clinical trials. Although we anticipate new data will emerge from currently ongoing and recently completed clinical trials, this consensus can serve as an outline for prioritization of certain molecular subsets of tumors to define and validate risk groups as a basis for future clinical trials. PMID:27040285

Do Health Professionals Need Additional Competencies for Stratified Cancer Prevention Based on Genetic Risk Profiling?

PubMed Central

Chowdhury, Susmita; Henneman, Lidewij; Dent, Tom; Hall, Alison; Burton, Alice; Pharoah, Paul; Pashayan, Nora; Burton, Hilary

2015-01-01

There is growing evidence that inclusion of genetic information about known common susceptibility variants may enable population risk-stratification and personalized prevention for common diseases including cancer. This would require the inclusion of genetic testing as an integral part of individual risk assessment of an asymptomatic individual. Front line health professionals would be expected to interact with and assist asymptomatic individuals through the risk stratification process. In that case, additional knowledge and skills may be needed. Current guidelines and frameworks for genetic competencies of non-specialist health professionals place an emphasis on rare inherited genetic diseases. For common diseases, health professionals do use risk assessment tools but such tools currently do not assess genetic susceptibility of individuals. In this article, we compare the skills and knowledge needed by non-genetic health professionals, if risk-stratified prevention is implemented, with existing competence recommendations from the UK, USA and Europe, in order to assess the gaps in current competences. We found that health professionals would benefit from understanding the contribution of common genetic variations in disease risk, the rationale for a risk-stratified prevention pathway, and the implications of using genomic information in risk-assessment and risk management of asymptomatic individuals for common disease prevention. PMID:26068647

Heart rate variability as predictive factor for sudden cardiac death.

PubMed

Sessa, Francesco; Anna, Valenzano; Messina, Giovanni; Cibelli, Giuseppe; Monda, Vincenzo; Marsala, Gabriella; Ruberto, Maria; Biondi, Antonio; Cascio, Orazio; Bertozzi, Giuseppe; Pisanelli, Daniela; Maglietta, Francesca; Messina, Antonietta; Mollica, Maria P; Salerno, Monica

2018-02-23

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) represents about 25% of deaths in clinical cardiology. The identification of risk factors for SCD is the philosopher's stone of cardiology and the identification of non-invasive markers of risk of SCD remains one of the most important goals for the scientific community.The aim of this review is to analyze the state of the art around the heart rate variability (HRV) as a predictor factor for SCD.HRV is probably the most analyzed index in cardiovascular risk stratification technical literature, therefore an important number of models and methods have been developed.Nowadays, low HRV has been shown to be independently predictive of increased mortality in post- myocardial infarction patients, heart failure patients, in contrast with the data of the general population.Contrariwise, the relationship between HRV and SCD has received scarce attention in low-risk cohorts. Furthermore, in general population the attributable risk is modest and the cost/benefit ratio is not always convenient.The HRV evaluation could become an important tool for health status in risks population, even though the use of HRV alone for risk stratification of SCD is limited and further studies are needed.

Evaluation of Quantra Hologic Volumetric Computerized Breast Density Software in Comparison With Manual Interpretation in a Diverse Population

PubMed Central

Richard-Davis, Gloria; Whittemore, Brianna; Disher, Anthony; Rice, Valerie Montgomery; Lenin, Rathinasamy B; Dollins, Camille; Siegel, Eric R; Eswaran, Hari

2018-01-01

Objective: Increased mammographic breast density is a well-established risk factor for breast cancer development, regardless of age or ethnic background. The current gold standard for categorizing breast density consists of a radiologist estimation of percent density according to the American College of Radiology (ACR) Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) criteria. This study compares paired qualitative interpretations of breast density on digital mammograms with quantitative measurement of density using Hologic’s Food and Drug Administration–approved R2 Quantra volumetric breast density assessment tool. Our goal was to find the best cutoff value of Quantra-calculated breast density for stratifying patients accurately into high-risk and low-risk breast density categories. Methods: Screening digital mammograms from 385 subjects, aged 18 to 64 years, were evaluated. These mammograms were interpreted by a radiologist using the ACR’s BI-RADS density method, and had quantitative density measured using the R2 Quantra breast density assessment tool. The appropriate cutoff for breast density–based risk stratification using Quantra software was calculated using manually determined BI-RADS scores as a gold standard, in which scores of D3/D4 denoted high-risk densities and D1/D2 denoted low-risk densities. Results: The best cutoff value for risk stratification using Quantra-calculated breast density was found to be 14.0%, yielding a sensitivity of 65%, specificity of 77%, and positive and negative predictive values of 75% and 69%, respectively. Under bootstrap analysis, the best cutoff value had a mean ± SD of 13.70% ± 0.89%. Conclusions: Our study is the first to publish on a North American population that assesses the accuracy of the R2 Quantra system at breast density stratification. Quantitative breast density measures will improve accuracy and reliability of density determination, assisting future researchers to accurately calculate breast cancer risks associated with density increase. PMID:29511356

Customized oligonucleotide microarray gene expression-based classification of neuroblastoma patients outperforms current clinical risk stratification.

PubMed

Oberthuer, André; Berthold, Frank; Warnat, Patrick; Hero, Barbara; Kahlert, Yvonne; Spitz, Rüdiger; Ernestus, Karen; König, Rainer; Haas, Stefan; Eils, Roland; Schwab, Manfred; Brors, Benedikt; Westermann, Frank; Fischer, Matthias

2006-11-01

To develop a gene expression-based classifier for neuroblastoma patients that reliably predicts courses of the disease. Two hundred fifty-one neuroblastoma specimens were analyzed using a customized oligonucleotide microarray comprising 10,163 probes for transcripts with differential expression in clinical subgroups of the disease. Subsequently, the prediction analysis for microarrays (PAM) was applied to a first set of patients with maximally divergent clinical courses (n = 77). The classification accuracy was estimated by a complete 10-times-repeated 10-fold cross validation, and a 144-gene predictor was constructed from this set. This classifier's predictive power was evaluated in an independent second set (n = 174) by comparing results of the gene expression-based classification with those of risk stratification systems of current trials from Germany, Japan, and the United States. The first set of patients was accurately predicted by PAM (cross-validated accuracy, 99%). Within the second set, the PAM classifier significantly separated cohorts with distinct courses (3-year event-free survival [EFS] 0.86 +/- 0.03 [favorable; n = 115] v 0.52 +/- 0.07 [unfavorable; n = 59] and 3-year overall survival 0.99 +/- 0.01 v 0.84 +/- 0.05; both P < .0001) and separated risk groups of current neuroblastoma trials into subgroups with divergent outcome (NB2004: low-risk 3-year EFS 0.86 +/- 0.04 v 0.25 +/- 0.15, P < .0001; intermediate-risk 1.00 v 0.57 +/- 0.19, P = .018; high-risk 0.81 +/- 0.10 v 0.56 +/- 0.08, P = .06). In a multivariate Cox regression model, the PAM predictor classified patients of the second set more accurately than risk stratification of current trials from Germany, Japan, and the United States (P < .001; hazard ratio, 4.756 [95% CI, 2.544 to 8.893]). Integration of gene expression-based class prediction of neuroblastoma patients may improve risk estimation of current neuroblastoma trials.

Evaluation of Quantra Hologic Volumetric Computerized Breast Density Software in Comparison With Manual Interpretation in a Diverse Population.

PubMed

Richard-Davis, Gloria; Whittemore, Brianna; Disher, Anthony; Rice, Valerie Montgomery; Lenin, Rathinasamy B; Dollins, Camille; Siegel, Eric R; Eswaran, Hari

2018-01-01

Increased mammographic breast density is a well-established risk factor for breast cancer development, regardless of age or ethnic background. The current gold standard for categorizing breast density consists of a radiologist estimation of percent density according to the American College of Radiology (ACR) Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) criteria. This study compares paired qualitative interpretations of breast density on digital mammograms with quantitative measurement of density using Hologic's Food and Drug Administration-approved R2 Quantra volumetric breast density assessment tool. Our goal was to find the best cutoff value of Quantra-calculated breast density for stratifying patients accurately into high-risk and low-risk breast density categories. Screening digital mammograms from 385 subjects, aged 18 to 64 years, were evaluated. These mammograms were interpreted by a radiologist using the ACR's BI-RADS density method, and had quantitative density measured using the R2 Quantra breast density assessment tool. The appropriate cutoff for breast density-based risk stratification using Quantra software was calculated using manually determined BI-RADS scores as a gold standard, in which scores of D3/D4 denoted high-risk densities and D1/D2 denoted low-risk densities. The best cutoff value for risk stratification using Quantra-calculated breast density was found to be 14.0%, yielding a sensitivity of 65%, specificity of 77%, and positive and negative predictive values of 75% and 69%, respectively. Under bootstrap analysis, the best cutoff value had a mean ± SD of 13.70% ± 0.89%. Our study is the first to publish on a North American population that assesses the accuracy of the R2 Quantra system at breast density stratification. Quantitative breast density measures will improve accuracy and reliability of density determination, assisting future researchers to accurately calculate breast cancer risks associated with density increase.

The TRIAGE-ProADM Score for an Early Risk Stratification of Medical Patients in the Emergency Department - Development Based on a Multi-National, Prospective, Observational Study

PubMed Central

Hausfater, Pierre; Amin, Devendra; Amin, Adina; Canavaggio, Pauline; Sauvin, Gabrielle; Bernard, Maguy; Conca, Antoinette; Haubitz, Sebastian; Struja, Tristan; Huber, Andreas; Mueller, Beat; Schuetz, Philipp

2016-01-01

Introduction The inflammatory biomarker pro-adrenomedullin (ProADM) provides additional prognostic information for the risk stratification of general medical emergency department (ED) patients. The aim of this analysis was to develop a triage algorithm for improved prognostication and later use in an interventional trial. Methods We used data from the multi-national, prospective, observational TRIAGE trial including consecutive medical ED patients from Switzerland, France and the United States. We investigated triage effects when adding ProADM at two established cut-offs to a five-level ED triage score with respect to adverse clinical outcome. Results Mortality in the 6586 ED patients showed a step-wise, 25-fold increase from 0.6% to 4.5% and 15.4%, respectively, at the two ProADM cut-offs (≤0.75nmol/L, >0.75–1.5nmol/L, >1.5nmol/L, p ANOVA <0.0001). Risk stratification by combining ProADM within cut-off groups and the triage score resulted in the identification of 1662 patients (25.2% of the population) at a very low risk of mortality (0.3%, n = 5) and 425 patients (6.5% of the population) at very high risk of mortality (19.3%, n = 82). Risk estimation by using ProADM and the triage score from a logistic regression model allowed for a more accurate risk estimation in the whole population with a classification of 3255 patients (49.4% of the population) in the low risk group (0.3% mortality, n = 9) and 1673 (25.4% of the population) in the high-risk group (15.1% mortality, n = 252). Conclusions Within this large international multicenter study, a combined triage score based on ProADM and established triage scores allowed a more accurate mortality risk discrimination. The TRIAGE-ProADM score improved identification of both patients at the highest risk of mortality who may benefit from early therapeutic interventions (rule in), and low risk patients where deferred treatment without negatively affecting outcome may be possible (rule out). PMID:28005916

Multiscale analysis of heart rate dynamics: entropy and time irreversibility measures.

PubMed

Costa, Madalena D; Peng, Chung-Kang; Goldberger, Ary L

2008-06-01

Cardiovascular signals are largely analyzed using traditional time and frequency domain measures. However, such measures fail to account for important properties related to multiscale organization and non-equilibrium dynamics. The complementary role of conventional signal analysis methods and emerging multiscale techniques, is, therefore, an important frontier area of investigation. The key finding of this presentation is that two recently developed multiscale computational tools--multiscale entropy and multiscale time irreversibility--are able to extract information from cardiac interbeat interval time series not contained in traditional methods based on mean, variance or Fourier spectrum (two-point correlation) techniques. These new methods, with careful attention to their limitations, may be useful in diagnostics, risk stratification and detection of toxicity of cardiac drugs.

Cytogenetics in the management of multiple myeloma: an update by the Groupe francophone de cytogénétique hématologique (GFCH).

PubMed

Daudignon, Agnès; Quilichini, Benoît; Ameye, Geneviève; Poirel, Hélène; Bastard, Christian; Terré, Christine

2016-10-01

Cytogenetics of multiple myeloma has evolved in recent years by the emergence of Interphasic fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) performed on sorted plasma cells detecting abnormalities independently of a proliferative and infiltrative index. Cytogenetic analysis plays a major part in the risk stratification of myeloma diagnosis due to prognostic impact of various cytogenetic abnormalities as well as to the association between emerging therapeutic approaches in MM. Thus, practice guidelines now recommend interphasic FISH or alternative molecular technics as the initial analysis for multiple myeloma. The Groupe francophone de cytogénétique hématologique (GFCH) proposes in this issue an update of managing multiple myeloma cytogenetics.

Multiscale Analysis of Heart Rate Dynamics: Entropy and Time Irreversibility Measures

PubMed Central

Peng, Chung-Kang; Goldberger, Ary L.

2016-01-01

Cardiovascular signals are largely analyzed using traditional time and frequency domain measures. However, such measures fail to account for important properties related to multiscale organization and nonequilibrium dynamics. The complementary role of conventional signal analysis methods and emerging multiscale techniques, is, therefore, an important frontier area of investigation. The key finding of this presentation is that two recently developed multiscale computational tools— multiscale entropy and multiscale time irreversibility—are able to extract information from cardiac interbeat interval time series not contained in traditional methods based on mean, variance or Fourier spectrum (two-point correlation) techniques. These new methods, with careful attention to their limitations, may be useful in diagnostics, risk stratification and detection of toxicity of cardiac drugs. PMID:18172763

Risk Associated with Pulse Pressure on Out-of-Office Blood Pressure Measurement

PubMed Central

Gu, Yu-Mei; Aparicio, Lucas S.; Liu, Yan-Ping; Asayama, Kei; Hansen, Tine W.; Niiranen, Teemu J.; Boggia, José; Thijs, Lutgarde; Staessen, Jan A.

2014-01-01

Background Longitudinal studies have demonstrated that the risk of cardiovascular disease increases with pulse pressure (PP). However, PP remains an elusive cardiovascular risk factor with findings being inconsistent between studies. The 2013 ESH/ESC guideline proposed that PP is useful in stratification and suggested a threshold of 60 mm Hg, which is 10 mm Hg higher compared to that in the 2007 guideline; however, no justification for this increase was provided. Methodology Published thresholds of PP are based on office blood pressure measurement and often on arbitrary categorical analyses. In the International Database on Ambulatory blood pressure in relation to Cardiovascular Outcomes (IDACO) and the International Database on HOme blood pressure in relation to Cardiovascular Outcome (IDHOCO), we determined outcome-driven thresholds for PP based on ambulatory or home blood pressure measurement, respectively. Results The main findings were that for people aged <60 years, PP did not refine risk stratification, whereas in older people the thresholds were 64 and 76 mm Hg for the ambulatory and home PP, respectively. However, PP provided little added predictive value over and beyond classical risk factors. PMID:26587443

Minimal Residual Disease in Acute Myeloid Leukemia

PubMed Central

Hourigan, Christopher S.; Karp, Judith E.

2014-01-01

Technological advances in the laboratory have lead to substantial improvements in clinical decision-making by the use of pre-treatment prognostic risk stratification factors in acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Unfortunately similar progress has not been made in treatment response criteria, with the definition of “complete remission” in AML largely unchanged for over half a century. Several recent clinical trials have demonstrated that higher sensitivity measurements of residual disease burden during or after treatment can be performed, that results are predictive for clinical outcome and can be used to improve outcomes by guiding additional therapeutic intervention to patients in clinical complete remission but at increased relapse risk. We review here these recent trials, the characteristics and challenges of the modalities currently used to detect minimal residual disease (MRD), and outline opportunities to both refine detection and better clinically utilize MRD measurements. MRD measurement is already the standard of care in other myeloid malignancies such as chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML) and acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL). It is our belief that response criteria for non-APL AML should be updated to include assessment for molecular complete remission (mCR) and that recommendations for post-consolidation surveillance should include regular monitoring for molecular relapse as a standard of care. PMID:23799371

RECENT ADVANCES OF GENETIC ANCESTRY TESTING IN BIOMEDICAL RESEARCH AND DIRECT TO CONSUMER TESTING

PubMed Central

Via, Marc; Ziv, Elad; Burchard, Esteban González

2010-01-01

In the post-Human Genome Project era, the debate on the concept of race/ethnicity and its implications for biomedical research are dependent on two critical issues: whether and how to classify individuals and whether biological factors play a role in health disparities. The advent of reliable estimates of genetic (or biogeographic) ancestry has provided this debate with a quantitative and more objective tool. The estimation of genetic ancestry allows investigators to control for population stratification in association studies and helps to detect biological causation behind population-specific differences in disease and drug response. New techniques such as admixture mapping can specifically detect population-specific risk alleles for a disease in admixed populations. However, researchers have to be mindful of the correlation between genetic ancestry and socioeconomic and environmental factors that could underlie these differences. More importantly, researchers must avoid the stigmatization of individuals based on perceived or real genetic risks. The latter point will become increasingly sensitive as several “for profit companies” are offering ancestry and genetic testing directly to consumers and the consequences of the spread of the services of these companies is still unforeseeable. PMID:19793051

Chromosome 9p21 In Ischemic Stroke: Population Structure and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Anderson, CD; Biffi, A; Rost, NS; Cortellini, L; Furie, KL; Rosand, J

2011-01-01

Background and Purpose Sequence variants on chromosome 9p21.3 are implicated in coronary artery disease (CAD) and myocardial infarction (MI), but studies in ischemic stroke have produced inconsistent results. We investigated whether these conflicting findings were due to false positive studies confounded by population stratification, or false negative studies that failed to account for effects specific to certain stroke subtypes. Methods After assessing for population stratification at 9p21.3 using genome-wide data, we meta-analyzed 8 ischemic stroke studies. This analysis focused on two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), rs1537378 and rs10757278, as these variants are in strong linkage disequilibrium with most SNPs analyzed in prior studies of the region. Results Principal component analysis of the genome-wide data showed no evidence of population stratification at that locus. Meta-analysis confirmed that both rs1537378 and rs10757278 are risk factors for ischemic stroke (odds ratios 1.09, [p = 0.0014], and 1.11, [p = 0.001] respectively). Subtype analysis revealed a substantial increase in the effect of each SNP for risk of large artery (LA) stroke, achieving an effect size similar to that seen in CAD/MI. Conclusions Variants on 9p21.3 are associated with ischemic stroke, and restriction of analysis to LA stroke increases effect size towards that observed in prior association studies of CAD/MI. Previous inconsistent findings are best explained by this subtype-specificity rather than any unmeasured confounding by population stratification. PMID:20395606

Personalized treatment of women with early breast cancer: a risk-group specific cost-effectiveness analysis of adjuvant chemotherapy accounting for companion prognostic tests OncotypeDX and Adjuvant!Online.

PubMed

Jahn, Beate; Rochau, Ursula; Kurzthaler, Christina; Hubalek, Michael; Miksad, Rebecca; Sroczynski, Gaby; Paulden, Mike; Bundo, Marvin; Stenehjem, David; Brixner, Diana; Krahn, Murray; Siebert, Uwe

2017-10-16

Due to high survival rates and the relatively small benefit of adjuvant therapy, the application of personalized medicine (PM) through risk stratification is particularly beneficial in early breast cancer (BC) to avoid unnecessary harms from treatment. The new 21-gene assay (OncotypeDX, ODX) is a promising prognostic score for risk stratification that can be applied in conjunction with Adjuvant!Online (AO) to guide personalized chemotherapy decisions for early BC patients. Our goal was to evaluate risk-group specific cost effectiveness of adjuvant chemotherapy for women with early stage BC in Austria based on AO and ODX risk stratification. A previously validated discrete event simulation model was applied to a hypothetical cohort of 50-year-old women over a lifetime horizon. We simulated twelve risk groups derived from the joint application of ODX and AO and included respective additional costs. The primary outcomes of interest were life-years gained, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs and incremental cost-effectiveness (ICER). The robustness of results and decisions derived were tested in sensitivity analyses. A cross-country comparison of results was performed. Chemotherapy is dominated (i.e., less effective and more costly) for patients with 1) low ODX risk independent of AO classification; and 2) low AO risk and intermediate ODX risk. For patients with an intermediate or high AO risk and an intermediate or high ODX risk, the ICER is below 15,000 EUR/QALY (potentially cost effective depending on the willingness-to-pay). Applying the AO risk classification alone would miss risk groups where chemotherapy is dominated and thus should not be considered. These results are sensitive to changes in the probabilities of distant recurrence but not to changes in the costs of chemotherapy or the ODX test. Based on our modeling study, chemotherapy is effective and cost effective for Austrian patients with an intermediate or high AO risk and an intermediate or high ODX risk. In other words, low ODX risk suggests chemotherapy should not be considered but low AO risk may benefit from chemotherapy if ODX risk is high. Our analysis suggests that risk-group specific cost-effectiveness analysis, which includes companion prognostic tests are essential in PM.

Strategies for Primary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease Based on Risk Stratification by the ACC/AHA Lipid Guidelines, ATP III Guidelines, Coronary Calcium Scoring, and C-Reactive Protein, and a Global Treat-All Strategy: A Comparative--Effectiveness Modeling Study

PubMed Central

Galper, Benjamin Z.; Wang, Y. Claire; Einstein, Andrew J.

2015-01-01

Background Several approaches have been proposed for risk-stratification and primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD), but their comparative and cost-effectiveness is unknown. Methods We constructed a state-transition microsimulation model to compare multiple approaches to the primary prevention of CHD in a simulated cohort of men aged 45–75 and women 55–75. Risk-stratification strategies included the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines on the treatment of blood cholesterol, the Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III guidelines, and approaches based on coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring and C-reactive protein (CRP). Additionally we assessed a treat-all strategy in which all individuals were prescribed either moderate-dose or high-dose statins and all males received low-dose aspirin. Outcome measures included CHD events, costs, medication-related side effects, radiation-attributable cancers, and quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs) over a 30-year timeframe. Results Treat-all with high-dose statins dominated all other strategies for both men and women, gaining 15.7 million QALYs, preventing 7.3 million myocardial infarctions, and saving over $238 billion, compared to the status quo, far outweighing its associated adverse events including bleeding, hepatitis, myopathy, and new-onset diabetes. ACC/AHA guidelines were more cost-effective than ATP III guidelines for both men and women despite placing 8.7 million more people on statins. For women at low CHD risk, treat-all with high-dose statins was more likely to cause a statin-related adverse event than to prevent a CHD event. Conclusions Despite leading to a greater proportion of the population placed on statin therapy, the ACC/AHA guidelines are more cost-effective than ATP III. Even so, at generic prices, treating all men and women with statins and all men with low-dose aspirin appears to be more cost-effective than all risk-stratification approaches for the primary prevention of CHD. Especially for low-CHD risk women, decisions on the appropriate primary prevention strategy should be based on shared decision making between patients and healthcare providers. PMID:26422204

Thermal thresholds as predictors of seed dormancy release and germination timing: altitude-related risks from climate warming for the wild grapevine Vitis vinifera subsp. sylvestris.

PubMed

Orrù, Martino; Mattana, Efisio; Pritchard, Hugh W; Bacchetta, Gianluigi

2012-12-01

The importance of thermal thresholds for predicting seed dormancy release and germination timing under the present climate conditions and simulated climate change scenarios was investigated. In particular, Vitis vinifera subsp. sylvestris was investigated in four Sardinian populations over the full altitudinal range of the species (from approx. 100 to 800 m a.s.l). Dried and fresh seeds from each population were incubated in the light at a range of temperatures (10-25 and 25/10 °C), without any pre-treatment and after a warm (3 months at 25 °C) or a cold (3 months at 5 °C) stratification. A thermal time approach was then applied to the germination results for dried seeds and the seed responses were modelled according to the present climate conditions and two simulated scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): B1 (+1·8 °C) and A2 (+3·4 °C). Cold stratification released physiological dormancy, while very few seeds germinated without treatments or after warm stratification. Fresh, cold-stratified seeds germinated significantly better (>80 %) at temperatures ≥20 °C than at lower temperatures. A base temperature for germination (T(b)) of 9·0-11·3 °C and a thermal time requirement for 50 % of germination (θ(50)) ranging from 33·6 °Cd to 68·6 °Cd were identified for non-dormant cold-stratified seeds, depending on the populations. This complex combination of thermal requirements for dormancy release and germination allowed prediction of field emergence from March to May under the present climatic conditions for the investigated populations. The thermal thresholds for seed germination identified in this study (T(b) and θ(50)) explained the differences in seed germination detected among populations. Under the two simulated IPCC scenarios, an altitude-related risk from climate warming is identified, with lowland populations being more threatened due to a compromised seed dormancy release and a narrowed seed germination window.

Survivin gene levels in the peripheral blood of patients with gastric cancer independently predict survival

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background The detection of circulating tumor cells (CTC) is considered a promising tool for improving risk stratification in patients with solid tumors. We investigated on whether the expression of CTC related genes adds any prognostic power to the TNM staging system in patients with gastric carcinoma. Methods Seventy patients with TNM stage I to IV gastric carcinoma were retrospectively enrolled. Peripheral blood samples were tested by means of quantitative real time PCR (qrtPCR) for the expression of four CTC related genes: carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), cytokeratin-19 (CK19), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and Survivin (BIRC5). Results Gene expression of Survivin, CK19, CEA and VEGF was higher than in normal controls in 98.6%, 97.1%, 42.9% and 38.6% of cases, respectively, suggesting a potential diagnostic value of both Survivin and CK19. At multivariable survival analysis, TNM staging and Survivin mRNA levels were retained as independent prognostic factors, demonstrating that Survivin expression in the peripheral blood adds prognostic information to the TNM system. In contrast with previously published data, the transcript abundance of CEA, CK19 and VEGF was not associated with patients' clinical outcome. Conclusions Gene expression levels of Survivin add significant prognostic value to the current TNM staging system. The validation of these findings in larger prospective and multicentric series might lead to the implementation of this biomarker in the routine clinical setting in order to optimize risk stratification and ultimately personalize the therapeutic management of these patients. PMID:20028510

Contemporary carotid imaging: from degree of stenosis to plaque vulnerability.

PubMed

Brinjikji, Waleed; Huston, John; Rabinstein, Alejandro A; Kim, Gyeong-Moon; Lerman, Amir; Lanzino, Giuseppe

2016-01-01

Carotid artery stenosis is a well-established risk factor of ischemic stroke, contributing to up to 10%-20% of strokes or transient ischemic attacks. Many clinical trials over the last 20 years have used measurements of carotid artery stenosis as a means to risk stratify patients. However, with improvements in vascular imaging techniques such as CT angiography and MR angiography, ultrasonography, and PET/CT, it is now possible to risk stratify patients, not just on the degree of carotid artery stenosis but also on how vulnerable the plaque is to rupture, resulting in ischemic stroke. These imaging techniques are ushering in an emerging paradigm shift that allows for risk stratifications based on the presence of imaging features such as intraplaque hemorrhage (IPH), plaque ulceration, plaque neovascularity, fibrous cap thickness, and presence of a lipid-rich necrotic core (LRNC). It is important for the neurosurgeon to be aware of these new imaging techniques that allow for improved patient risk stratification and outcomes. For example, a patient with a low-grade stenosis but an ulcerated plaque may benefit more from a revascularization procedure than a patient with a stable 70% asymptomatic stenosis with a thick fibrous cap. This review summarizes the current state-of-the-art advances in carotid plaque imaging. Currently, MRI is the gold standard in carotid plaque imaging, with its high resolution and high sensitivity for identifying IPH, ulceration, LRNC, and inflammation. However, MRI is limited due to time constraints. CT also allows for high-resolution imaging and can accurately detect ulceration and calcification, but cannot reliably differentiate LRNC from IPH. PET/CT is an effective technique to identify active inflammation within the plaque, but it does not allow for assessment of anatomy, ulceration, IPH, or LRNC. Ultrasonography, with the aid of contrast enhancement, is a cost-effective technique to assess plaque morphology and characteristics, but it is limited in sensitivity and specificity for detecting LRNC, plaque hemorrhage, and ulceration compared with MRI. Also summarized is how these advanced imaging techniques are being used in clinical practice to risk stratify patients with low- and high-grade carotid artery stenosis. For example, identification of IPH on MRI in patients with low-grade carotid artery stenosis is a risk factor for failure of medical therapy, and studies have shown that such patients may fair better with carotid endarterectomy (CEA). MR plaque imaging has also been found to be useful in identifying revascularization candidates who would be better candidates for CEA than carotid artery stenting (CAS), as high intraplaque signal on time of flight imaging is associated with vulnerable plaque and increased rates of adverse events in patients undergoing CAS but not CEA.

EAU Guidelines on Non-Muscle-invasive Urothelial Carcinoma of the Bladder: Update 2016.

PubMed

Babjuk, Marko; Böhle, Andreas; Burger, Maximilian; Capoun, Otakar; Cohen, Daniel; Compérat, Eva M; Hernández, Virginia; Kaasinen, Eero; Palou, Joan; Rouprêt, Morgan; van Rhijn, Bas W G; Shariat, Shahrokh F; Soukup, Viktor; Sylvester, Richard J; Zigeuner, Richard

2017-03-01

The European Association of Urology (EAU) panel on Non-muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer (NMIBC) released an updated version of the guidelines on Non-muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer. To present the 2016 EAU guidelines on NMIBC. A broad and comprehensive scoping exercise covering all areas of the NMIBC guidelines published between April 1, 2014, and May 31, 2015, was performed. Databases covered by the search included Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Libraries. Previous guidelines were updated, and levels of evidence and grades of recommendation were assigned. Tumours staged as TaT1 or carcinoma in situ (CIS) are grouped as NMIBC. Diagnosis depends on cystoscopy and histologic evaluation of the tissue obtained by transurethral resection of the bladder (TURB) in papillary tumours or by multiple bladder biopsies in CIS. In papillary lesions, a complete TURB is essential for the patient's prognosis. If the initial resection is incomplete, there is no muscle in the specimen, or a high-grade or T1 tumour is detected, a second TURB should be performed within 2-6 wk. The risks of both recurrence and progression may be estimated for individual patients using the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) scoring system and risk tables. The stratification of patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups is pivotal to recommending adjuvant treatment. For patients with a low-risk tumour and intermediate-risk patients at a lower risk of recurrence, one immediate instillation of chemotherapy is recommended. Patients with an intermediate-risk tumour should receive 1 yr of full-dose bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) intravesical immunotherapy or instillations of chemotherapy for a maximum of 1 yr. In patients with high-risk tumours, full-dose intravesical BCG for 1-3 yr is indicated. In patients at highest risk of tumour progression, immediate radical cystectomy (RC) should be considered. RC is recommended in BCG-refractory tumours. The long version of the guidelines is available at the EAU Web site (www.uroweb.org/guidelines). These abridged EAU guidelines present updated information on the diagnosis and treatment of NMIBC for incorporation into clinical practice. The European Association of Urology has released updated guidelines on Non-muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer (NMIBC). Stratification of patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups is essential for decisions about adjuvant intravesical instillations. Risk tables can be used to estimate risks of recurrence and progression. Radical cystectomy should be considered only in case of failure of instillations or in NMIBC with the highest risk of progression. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Highly Sensitive Troponin I Followed by Advanced Coronary Artery Disease Assessment Using Computed Tomography Angiography Improves Acute Coronary Syndrome Risk Stratification Accuracy and Work-up in Acute Chest Pain Patients: Results from ROMICAT II Trial

PubMed Central

Mayrhofer, Thomas; Puchner, Stefan B.; Lu, Michael T.; Maurovich-Horvat, Pal; Pope, J. Hector; Truong, Quynh A.; Udelson, James E.; Peacock, W. Frank; White, Charles S.; Woodard, Pamela K.; Fleg, Jerome L.; Nagurney, John T.; Januzzi, James L.; Hoffmann, Udo

2015-01-01

Objectives We compared diagnostic accuracy of conventional troponin/traditional coronary artery disease (CAD) assessment and highly sensitive troponin (hsTn) I/advanced CAD assessment for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) during the index hospitalization. Background HsTn I and advanced assessment of CAD using coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA) are promising candidates to improve the accuracy of emergency department (ED) evaluation of patients with suspected ACS. Methods We performed an observational cohort study in patients with suspected ACS enrolled in the ROMICAT II trial and randomized to coronary CTA who also had hsTn I measurement at the time of the ED presentation. We assessed coronary CTA for traditional (no CAD, non-obstructive CAD, ≥50% stenosis) and advanced features of CAD (≥50% stenosis, high-risk plaque features: positive remodeling, low <30 Hounsfield Units plaque, napkin ring sign, spotty calcium). Results Of 160 patients (mean age: 53±8 years, 40% women) 10.6% were diagnosed with ACS. The ACS rate in patients with HsTn I below the limit of detection (n=9, 5.6%), intermediate (n=139, 86.9%), and above the 99th percentile (n=12, 7.5%) was 0%, 8.6%, and 58.3%, respectively. Absence of ≥50% stenosis and high-risk plaque ruled out ACS in patients with intermediate hsTn I (n=87, 54.4%; ACS rate 0%), while patients with both ≥50% stenosis and high-risk plaque were at high risk (n=13, 8.1%; ACS rate 69.2%) and patients with either ≥50% stenosis or high-risk plaque were at intermediate risk for ACS (n=39, 24.4%; ACS rate 7.7%). HsTn I/advanced coronary CTA assessment significantly improved the diagnostic accuracy for ACS as compared to conventional troponin/traditional coronary CTA (AUC 0.84, 95%CI 0.80-0.88 vs. 0.74, 95%CI 0.70-0.78; p<0.001). Conclusions HsTn I at the time of presentation followed by early advanced coronary CTA assessment improves the risk stratification and diagnostic accuracy for ACS as compared to conventional troponin and traditional coronary CTA assessment. (Multicenter Study to Rule Out Myocardial Infarction/Ischemia by Cardiac Computed Tomography [ROMICAT-II]; NCT01084239) PMID:26476506

Power of resting echocardiographic measurements to classify pulmonary hypertension patients according to European society of cardiology exercise testing risk stratification cut-offs.

PubMed

Rehman, Michaela B; Garcia, Rodrigue; Christiaens, Luc; Larrieu-Ardilouze, Elisa; Howard, Luke S; Nihoyannopoulos, Petros

2018-04-15

Right ventricular function is the major determinant of morbidity and mortality in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). The ESC risk assessment strategy for PAH is based on clinical status, exercise testing, NTproBNP, imaging and haemodynamics but does not include right ventricular function. Our aims were to test the power of resting echocardiographic measurements to classify PAH patients according to ESC exercise testing risk stratification cut-offs and to determine if the classification power of echocardiographic parameters varied in chronic thrombo-embolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH). We prospectively and consecutively recruited 46 PAH patients and 42 CTEPH patients referred for cardio-pulmonary exercise testing and comprehensive transthoracic echocardiography. Exercise testing parameters analyzed were peak oxygen consumption, percentage of predicted maximal oxygen consumption and the slope of ventilation against carbon dioxide production. Receiver operator characteristic curves were used to determine the optimal diagnostic cut-off values of echocardiographic parameters for classifying the patients in intermediate or high risk category according to exercise testing. Measurements of right ventricular systolic function were the best for classifying in PAH (area under the curve 0.815 to 0.935). Measurements of right ventricular pressure overload (0.810 to 0.909) were optimal for classifying according to exercise testing in CTEPH. Measurements of left ventricular function were of no use in either group. Measurements of right ventricular systolic function can classify according to exercise testing risk stratification cut-offs in PAH. However, this is not the case in CTEPH where pressure overload, rather than right ventricular function seems to be linked to exercise performance. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prognostic value of the Ortho Vitros cardiac troponin I assay in patients with symptoms of myocardial ischemia. Risk stratification using European Society of Cardiology/American College of Cardiology recommended cutoff values.

PubMed

Apple, Fred S; Murakami, MaryAnn M; Quist, Heidi H; Pearce, Lesly A; Wieczorek, Stacey; Wu, Alan H B

2003-07-01

We evaluated the risk assessment value of a commercial cardiac troponin (cTn; Ortho Vitros ECi, Ortho-Clinical Diagnostics, Raritan, NJ) I assay in patients with symptoms of myocardial ischemia suggestive of acute coronary syndrome and compared findings with those for a commercial cTnT assay in the same population. The cTn levels were measured by both assays in plasma samples from 273 patients during 24 hours after admission. Baseline and maximum concentrations were used for risk stratification; cutoffs were the 99th percentile and 10% coefficient of variation. End points were all-cause death and cardiac events within 60 days. Relative risks (RRs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models and Kaplan-Meier curves. RRs of cardiac events and death were significantly higher with increased baseline and maximum concentrations using either cTnI cutoff. The respective mortality rates for baseline cTnI of more than 0.08 microgram/L vs 0.08 microgram/L or less were 17.4% vs 2.9% (P = .001); cardiac event rates were 11.5% vs 3.6% (P = .03). Exclusion of patients with ST-segment elevation had no significant effect on rates for either assay. Mortality was higher in the intermediate (0.09-0.2 microgram/L) than in the low (< or = 0.08 microgram/L) group for cTnI, with directionally similar results for cTnT. Our findings validate the Ortho cTnI assay as a risk stratification biomarker in patients with symptoms of myocardial ischemia.

Application of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) as a stratification tool on admission in an Italian acute medical ward: A perspective study.

PubMed

Spagnolli, Walter; Rigoni, Marta; Torri, Emanuele; Cozzio, Susanna; Vettorato, Elisa; Nollo, Giandomenico

2017-03-01

We aimed to assess the performance of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) as tool for patient risk stratification at admission in an acute Internal Medicine ward and to ensure patient placement in ward areas with the required and most appropriate intensity of care. As secondary objective, we considered NEWS performance in two subgroups of patients: sudden cardiac events (acute coronary syndromes and arrhythmic events), and chronic respiratory insufficiency. We conducted a perspective cohort single centre study on 2,677 unselected patients consecutively admitted from July 2013 to March 2015 in the Internal Medicine ward of the hospital of Trento, Italy. The NEWS was mandatory collected on ward admission. We defined three risk categories for clinical deterioration: low score (NEWS 0-4), medium score (NEWS 5-6), and high score (NEWS≥7). Following adverse outcomes were considered: total and early (<72 hours) in-hospital mortality, urgent transfers to a higher intensity of care. A logistic regression model quantified the association between outcomes and NEWS. For patients with NEWS >4 vs patients with NEWS <4, the risk of early death increased from 12 to 36 times, total mortality from 3.5 to 9, and urgent transfers from 3.5 to 7. In patients with sudden cardiac events, lower scores were significantly associated with higher risk of transfer to a higher intensity of care. In patients affected by chronic hypoxaemia, adverse outcomes occurred less in medium and high score categories of NEWS. National Early Warning Score assessed on ward admission may enable risk stratification of clinical deterioration and can be a good predictor of in-hospital serious adverse outcomes, although sudden cardiac events and chronic hypoxaemia could constitute some limits. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluation and Management of Wolff-Parkinson-White in Athletes

PubMed Central

Rao, Ashwin L.; Salerno, Jack C.; Asif, Irfan M.; Drezner, Jonathan A.

2014-01-01

Context: Wolff-Parkinson-White (WPW) is a cardiac conduction system disorder characterized by abnormal accessory conduction pathways between the atria and the ventricles. Symptomatic patients classically present with palpitations, presyncope, or syncope that results from supraventricular tachycardia. While rare, sudden cardiac death may be the first manifestation of underlying disease and occurs more frequently in exercising individuals. Evidence Acquisition: Medline and PubMed databases were evaluated through 2012, with the following keywords: WPW, Wolff-Parkinson-White, pre-excitation, sudden cardiac death, risk stratification, and athletes. Selected articles identified through the primary search, along with relevant references from those articles, were reviewed for pertinent clinical information regarding the identification, evaluation, risk stratification, and management of WPW as they pertained to the care of athletes. Study Design: Systematic review. Level of Evidence: Level 1. Results: Diagnosis of WPW is confirmed by characteristic electrocardiogram changes, which include a delta wave, short PR interval, and widened QRS complex. Utilization of the electrocardiogram as part of the preparticipation physical evaluation may allow for early identification of asymptomatic individuals with a WPW pattern. Risk stratification techniques identify individuals at risk for malignant arrhythmias who may be candidates for curative therapy through transcatheter ablation. Conclusion: WPW accounts for at least 1% of sudden death in athletes and has a prevalence of at least 1 to 4.5 per 1000 children and adults. The risk of lethal arrhythmia appears to be higher in asymptomatic children than in adults, and sudden cardiac death is often the sentinel event. The athlete with WPW should be evaluated for symptoms and the presence of intermittent or persistent pre-excitation, which dictates further consultation, treatment, and monitoring strategies as well as return to play. PMID:24982705

Classification of drugs with different risk profiles.

PubMed

Saedder, Eva Aggerholm; Brock, Birgitte; Nielsen, Lars Peter; Bonnerup, Dorthe Krogsgaard; Lisby, Marianne

2015-08-01

A risk stratification approach is needed to identify patients at high risk of medication errors and a resulting high need of medication review. The aim of this study was to perform risk stratification (distinguishing between low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk drugs) for drugs found to cause serious adverse reactions due to medication errors. The study employed a modified Delphi technique. Drugs from a systematic literature search were included into two rounds of a Delphi process. A panel of experts was asked to evaluate each identified drug's potential for harm and for clinically relevant drug-drug interactions on a scale from 1 (low risk) to 9 (high risk). A total of 36 experts were appointed to serve on the panel. Consensus was reached for 29/57 (51%) drugs or drug classes that cause harm, and for 32/57 (56%) of the drugs or drug classes that cause interactions. For the remaining drugs, a decision was made based on the median score. Two lists, one stating the drugs' potential for causing harm and the other stating clinically relevant drug-drug interactions, were stratified into low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk drugs. Based on a modified Delphi technique, we created two lists of drugs stratified into a low-risk, a medium-risk and a high-risk group of clinically relevant interactions or risk of harm to patients. The lists could be incorporated into a risk-scoring tool that stratifies the performance of medication reviews according to patients' risk of experiencing adverse reactions. none. not relevant.

Numerical investigation of potential stratification caused by a cryogenic helium spill inside a tunnel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinclair, Cameron; Malecha, Ziemowit; Jedrusyna, Artur

2018-04-01

The sudden release of cryogenic fluid into an accelerator tunnel can pose a significant health and safety risk. For this reason, it is important to evaluate the consequences of such a spill. Previous publications concentrated on either Oxygen Deficiency Hazard or the evaluation of mathematical models using experimental data. No studies to date have focussed on the influence of cryogen inlet conditions on flow development. In this paper, the stratification behaviour of low-temperature helium released into an air-filled accelerator tunnel is investigated for varying helium inlet diameters. A numerical model was constructed using the OpenFOAM Toolbox of a generalised 3D geometry, with similar hydraulic characteristics to the CERN and SLAC tunnels. This model has been validated against published experimental and numerical data. A dimensionless parameter, based on Bakke number, was then determined for the onset of stratification, taking into account the helium inlet diameter; a dimensionless parameter for the degree of stratification was also employed. The simulated flow behaviour is described in terms of these dimensionless parameters, as well as the temperature and oxygen concentration at various heights throughout the tunnel.

Genomic Characterization of Paediatric Acute Lymphoblastic Leukaemia: an Opportunity for Precision Medicine Therapeutics

PubMed Central

Tasian, Sarah K; Hunger, Stephen P

2016-01-01

Major advances in genetic and epigenetic profiling of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) have enhanced the understanding of key biological subsets of de novo and relapsed ALL, which has led to improved risk stratification of patients. These achievements have further defined critical leukaemia-associated pathways and somatic alterations that may be preferentially sensitive to treatment with kinase inhibitors, epigenetic therapy or other novel agents. Therapeutic success in childhood ALL currently relies upon refined risk stratification of patients based on (1) underlying biological and clinical characteristics and (2) depth of initial treatment response with appropriate modulation of chemotherapy intensity. This review describes the current mutational landscape of childhood ALL and discusses opportunities for substantial improvements in survival with implementation of molecularly targeted therapies. PMID:27984637

Peri-procedural risk stratification and management of patients with Williams syndrome.

PubMed

Collins Ii, R Thomas; Collins, Margaret G; Schmitz, Michael L; Hamrick, Justin T

2017-03-01

Williams syndrome (WS) is a congenital, multisystem disorder affecting the cardiovascular, connective tissue, and central nervous systems in 1 in 10 000 live births. Cardiovascular involvement is the most common cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with WS, and noninvasive and invasive procedures are common. Sudden cardiovascular collapse in patients with WS is a well-known phenomenon, especially in the peri-procedural period. Detailed guidelines for peri-procedural management of patients with WS are limited. The goal of this review is to provide thoughtful, safe and effective management strategies for the peri-procedural care of patients with WS with careful consideration of hemodynamic impacts of anesthetic strategies. In addition, an expanded risk stratification system for anesthetic administration is provided. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

[Amyloidosis: Up-to-date].

PubMed

Magy-Bertrand, N

2016-08-01

Amyloidosis is mainly a systemic disease belonging to protein-folding diseases. The past 10 years have shown significant progress in typing and the clinical management of amyloidosis, in the identification of novel prognostic markers for risk-stratification, and also in the development of new therapeutic agents. Biological molecular techniques are now able to type amyloidosis which were unidentified. Cardiac MRI and biomarkers allow a precise risk-stratification, especially in AL amyloidosis. If necessary, this prognostic evaluation may lead to rapid changes in the chemotherapy treatment. Emerging treatments rely on biotherapies, gene therapy, immunotherapy and blocking analogous agents. They give hope about an increase of survival of patients with systemic amyloidosis. Copyright © 2016 Société Nationale Française de Médecine Interne (SNFMI). Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Genomic characterization of paediatric acute lymphoblastic leukaemia: an opportunity for precision medicine therapeutics.

PubMed

Tasian, Sarah K; Hunger, Stephen P

2017-03-01

Major advances in genetic and epigenetic profiling of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) have enhanced the understanding of key biological subsets of de novo and relapsed ALL, which has led to improved risk stratification of patients. These achievements have further defined critical leukaemia-associated pathways and somatic alterations that may be preferentially sensitive to treatment with kinase inhibitors, epigenetic therapy or other novel agents. Therapeutic success in childhood ALL currently relies upon refined risk stratification of patients based on (i) underlying biological and clinical characteristics, and (ii) depth of initial treatment response with appropriate modulation of chemotherapy intensity. This review describes the current mutational landscape of childhood ALL and discusses opportunities for substantial improvements in survival with implementation of molecularly targeted therapies. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A score model to predict risk of events in patients with Brugada Syndrome.

PubMed

Sieira, Juan; Conte, Giulio; Ciconte, Giuseppe; Chierchia, Gian-Battista; Casado-Arroyo, Ruben; Baltogiannis, Giannis; Di Giovanni, Giacomo; Saitoh, Yukio; Juliá, Justo; Mugnai, Giacomo; La Meir, Mark; Wellens, Francis; Czapla, Jens; Pappaert, Gudrun; de Asmundis, Carlo; Brugada, Pedro

2017-06-07

Risk stratification in Brugada Syndrome (BS) remains challenging. Arrhythmic events can occur life-long and studies with long follow-ups are sparse. The aim of our study was to investigate long-term prognosis and risk stratification of BS patients. A single centre consecutive cohort of 400 BS patients was included and analysed. Mean age was 41.1 years, 78 patients (19.5%) had a spontaneous type I electrocardiogram (ECG). Clinical presentation was aborted sudden cardiac death (SCD) in 20 patients (5.0%), syncope in 111 (27.8%) and asymptomatic in 269 (67.3%). Familial antecedents of SCD were found in 184 individuals (46.0%), in 31 (7.8%) occurred in first-degree relatives younger than 35 years. An implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) was placed in 176 (44.0%). During a mean follow-up of 80.7 months, 34 arrhythmic events occurred (event rate: 1.4% year). Variables significantly associated to events were: presentation as aborted SCD (Hazard risk [HR] 20.0), syncope (HR 3.7), spontaneous type I (HR 2.7), male gender (HR 2.7), early SCD in first-degree relatives (HR 2.9), SND (HR 5.0), inducible VA (HR 4.7) and proband status (HR 2.1). A score including ECG pattern, early familial SCD antecedents, inducible electrophysiological study, presentation as syncope or as aborted SCD and SND had a predictive performance of 0.82. A score greater than 2 conferred a 5-year event probability of 9.2%. BS patients remain at risk many years after diagnosis. Early SCD in first-degree relatives and SND are risk factors for arrhythmic events. A simple risk score might help in the stratification and management of BS patients. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2017. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Strategies for vascular disease prevention: the role of lipids and related markers including apolipoproteins, low-density lipoproteins (LDL)-particle size, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA₂) and lipoprotein(a) (Lp(a)).

PubMed

Dallmeier, Dhayana; Koenig, Wolfgang

2014-06-01

Considerable progress has been achieved in the treatment of dyslipidemias. However, half of cardiovascular events occur in individuals with average or low cholesterol levels and there is still a considerable residual risk with 70% of patients having an event despite statin treatment. In the era of personalized medicine there is increased interest in the incorporation of individual biomarkers in risk score algorithms in order to improve cardiovascular risk stratification followed by the prompt initiation of preventive measures. Since the 2001 third report of the National Cholesterol Education Program Expert Panel on Detection, Evaluation and Treatment on High Blood Cholesterol in Adults (ATP III) several studies have evaluated the prognostic value of lipid related biomarkers such as non-HDL-cholesterol, apolipoprotein B, apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A1 ratio, lipoprotein(a), lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2, and C-reactive protein. This article tries to summarize the most recent results in this area. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

From differences in means between cases and controls to risk stratification: a business plan for biomarker development.

PubMed

Wentzensen, Nicolas; Wacholder, Sholom

2013-02-01

Researchers developing biomarkers for early detection can determine the potential for clinical benefit at early stages of development. We provide the theoretical background showing the quantitative connection between biomarker levels in cases and controls and clinically meaningful risk measures, as well as a spreadsheet for researchers to use in their own research. We provide researchers with tools to decide whether a test is useful, whether it needs technical improvement, whether it may work only in specific populations, or whether any further development is futile. The methods described here apply to any method that aims to estimate risk of disease based on biomarkers, clinical tests, genetics, environment, or behavior. Many efforts go into futile biomarker development and premature clinical testing. In many instances, predictions for translational success or failure can be made early, simply based on critical analysis of case–control data. Our article presents well-established theory in a form that can be appreciated by biomarker researchers. Furthermore, we provide an interactive spreadsheet that links biomarker performance with specific disease characteristics to evaluate the promise of biomarker candidates at an early stage.

Gastric cancer: Prevention, screening and early diagnosis

PubMed Central

Pasechnikov, Victor; Chukov, Sergej; Fedorov, Evgeny; Kikuste, Ilze; Leja, Marcis

2014-01-01

Gastric cancer continues to be an important healthcare problem from a global perspective. Most of the cases in the Western world are diagnosed at late stages when the treatment is largely ineffective. Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection is a well-established carcinogen for gastric cancer. While lifestyle factors are important, the efficacy of interventions in their modification, as in the use of antioxidant supplements, is unconvincing. No organized screening programs can be found outside Asia (Japan and South Korea). Although several screening approaches have been proposed, including indirect atrophy detection by measuring pepsinogen in the circulation, none of them have so far been implemented, and more study data is required to justify any implementation. Mass eradication of H. pylori in high-risk areas tends to be cost-effective, but its adverse effects and resistance remain a concern. Searches for new screening biomarkers, including microRNA and cancer-autoantibody panels, as well as detection of volatile organic compounds in the breath, are in progress. Endoscopy with a proper biopsy follow-up remains the standard for early detection of cancer and related premalignant lesions. At the same time, new advanced high-resolution endoscopic technologies are showing promising results with respect to diagnosing mucosal lesions visually and targeting each biopsy. New histological risk stratifications (classifications), including OLGA and OLGIM, have recently been developed. This review addresses the current means for gastric cancer primary and secondary prevention, the available and emerging methods for screening, and new developments in endoscopic detection of early lesions of the stomach. PMID:25320521

Measurable residual disease detection by high-throughput sequencing improves risk stratification for pediatric B-ALL

PubMed Central

Wood, Brent; Wu, David; Crossley, Beryl; Dai, Yunfeng; Williamson, David; Gawad, Charles; Borowitz, Michael J.; Devidas, Meenakshi; Maloney, Kelly W.; Larsen, Eric; Winick, Naomi; Raetz, Elizabeth; Carroll, William L.; Hunger, Stephen P.; Loh, Mignon L.; Robins, Harlan

2018-01-01

Early response to induction chemotherapy is an important prognostic factor in B-lymphoblastic leukemia (B-ALL). Here, we compare high-throughput sequencing (HTS) of IGH and TRG genes vs flow cytometry (FC) for measurable residual disease (MRD) detection at the end of induction chemotherapy in pediatric patients with newly diagnosed B-ALL. Six hundred nineteen paired pretreatment and end-of-induction bone marrow samples from Children’s Oncology Group studies AALL0331 (clinicaltrials.gov #NCT00103285) (standard risk [SR]; with MRD by FC at any level) and AALL0232 (clinicaltrials.gov #NCT00075725) (high risk; with day 29 MRD <0.1% by FC) were evaluated by HTS and FC for event-free (EFS) and overall survival (OS). HTS and FC showed similar 5-year EFS and OS for MRD-positive and -negative patients using an MRD threshold of 0.01%. However, there was a high discordant rate with HTS identifying 55 (38.7%) more patients MRD positive at this threshold. These discrepant patients have worse outcomes than FC MRD-negative patients. In addition, the increased analytic sensitivity of HTS permitted identification of 19.9% of SR patients without MRD at any detectable level who had excellent 5-year EFS (98.1%) and OS (100%). The higher analytic sensitivity and lower false-negative rate of HTS improves upon FC for MRD detection in pediatric B-ALL by identifying a novel subset of patients at end of induction who are essentially cured using current chemotherapy and identifying MRD at 0.01% in up to one-third of patients who are missed at the same threshold by FC. PMID:29284596

Congenital and hereditary causes of sudden cardiac death in young adults: diagnosis, differential diagnosis, and risk stratification.

PubMed

Stojanovska, Jadranka; Garg, Anubhav; Patel, Smita; Melville, David M; Kazerooni, Ella A; Mueller, Gisela C

2013-01-01

Sudden cardiac death is defined as death from unexpected circulatory arrest-usually a result of cardiac arrhythmia-that occurs within 1 hour of the onset of symptoms. Proper and timely identification of individuals at risk for sudden cardiac death and the diagnosis of its predisposing conditions are vital. A careful history and physical examination, in addition to electrocardiography and cardiac imaging, are essential to identify conditions associated with sudden cardiac death. Among young adults (18-35 years), sudden cardiac death most commonly results from a previously undiagnosed congenital or hereditary condition, such as coronary artery anomalies and inherited cardiomyopathies (eg, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy [ARVC], dilated cardiomyopathy, and noncompaction cardiomyopathy). Overall, the most common causes of sudden cardiac death in young adults are, in descending order of frequency, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, coronary artery anomalies with an interarterial or intramural course, and ARVC. Often, sudden cardiac death is precipitated by ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation and may be prevented with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD). Risk stratification to determine the need for an ICD is challenging and involves imaging, particularly echocardiography and cardiac magnetic resonance (MR) imaging. Coronary artery anomalies, a diverse group of congenital disorders with a variable manifestation, may be depicted at coronary computed tomographic angiography or MR angiography. A thorough understanding of clinical risk stratification, imaging features, and complementary diagnostic tools for the evaluation of cardiac disorders that may lead to sudden cardiac death is essential to effectively use imaging to guide diagnosis and therapy.

Non-invasive assessment of low- and intermediate-risk patients with chest pain

PubMed Central

Balfour, Pelbreton C.; Gonzalez, Jorge A.; Kramer, Christopher M.

2016-01-01

Coronary artery disease (CAD) remains a significant global public health burden despite advancements in prevention and therapeutic strategies. Common non-invasive imaging modalities, anatomic and functional, are available for the assessment of patients with stable chest pain. Exercise electrocardiography is a long-standing method for evaluation for CAD and remains the initial test for the majority of patients who can exercise adequately with a baseline interpretable electrocardiogram. The addition of cardiac imaging to exercise testing provides incremental benefit for accurate diagnosis for CAD and is particularly useful in patients who are unable to exercise adequately and/or have uninterpretable electrocardiograms. Radionuclide myocardial perfusion imaging and echocardiography with exercise or pharmacological stress provide high sensitivity and specificity in the detection and further risk stratification of patients with CAD. Recently, coronary computed tomography angiography has demonstrated its growing role to rule out significant CAD given its high negative predictive value. Although less available, stress cardiac magnetic resonance provides a comprehensive assessment of cardiac structure and function and provides a high diagnostic accuracy in the detection of CAD. The utilization of non-invasive testing is complex due to various advantages and limitations, particularly in the assessment of low- and intermediate-risk patients with chest pain, where no single study is suitable for all patients. This review will describe currently available non-invasive modalities, along with current evidence-based guidelines and appropriate use criteria in the assessment of low- and intermediate-risk patients with suspected, stable CAD. PMID:27717538

Curbing the burden of lung cancer.

PubMed

Urman, Alexandra; Hosgood, H Dean

2016-06-01

Lung cancer contributes substantially to the global burden of disease and healthcare costs. New screening modalities using low-dose computerized tomography are promising tools for early detection leading to curative surgery. However, the screening and follow-up diagnostic procedures of these techniques may be costly. Focusing on prevention is an important factor to reduce the burden of screening, treatment, and lung cancer deaths. The International Agency for Research on Cancer has identified several lung carcinogens, which we believe can be considered actionable when developing prevention strategies. To curb the societal burden of lung cancer, healthcare resources need to be focused on early detection and screening and on mitigating exposure(s) of a person to known lung carcinogens, such as active tobacco smoking, household air pollution (HAP), and outdoor air pollution. Evidence has also suggested that these known lung carcinogens may be associated with genetic predispositions, supporting the hypothesis that lung cancers attributed to differing exposures may have developed from unique underlying genetic mechanisms attributed to the exposure of interest. For instance, smokingattributed lung cancer involves novel genetic markers of risk compared with HAP-attributed lung cancer. Therefore, genetic risk markers may be used in risk stratification to identify subpopulations that are at a higher risk for developing lung cancer attributed to a given exposure. Such targeted prevention strategies suggest that precision prevention strategies may be possible in the future; however, much work is needed to determine whether these strategies will be viable.

Ultrasonography Diagnosis and Imaging-Based Management of Thyroid Nodules: Revised Korean Society of Thyroid Radiology Consensus Statement and Recommendations

PubMed Central

Shin, Jung Hee; Baek, Jung Hwan; Chung, Jin; Ha, Eun Ju; Kim, Ji-hoon; Lee, Young Hen; Lim, Hyun Kyung; Moon, Won-Jin; Park, Jeong Seon; Choi, Yoon Jung; Hahn, Soo Yeon; Jeon, Se Jeong; Jung, So Lyung; Kim, Dong Wook; Kim, Eun-Kyung; Kwak, Jin Young; Lee, Chang Yoon; Lee, Hui Joong; Lee, Jeong Hyun; Lee, Joon Hyung; Lee, Kwang Hui; Park, Sun-Won; Sung, Jin Young

2016-01-01

The rate of detection of thyroid nodules and carcinomas has increased with the widespread use of ultrasonography (US), which is the mainstay for the detection and risk stratification of thyroid nodules as well as for providing guidance for their biopsy and nonsurgical treatment. The Korean Society of Thyroid Radiology (KSThR) published their first recommendations for the US-based diagnosis and management of thyroid nodules in 2011. These recommendations have been used as the standard guidelines for the past several years in Korea. Lately, the application of US has been further emphasized for the personalized management of patients with thyroid nodules. The Task Force on Thyroid Nodules of the KSThR has revised the recommendations for the ultrasound diagnosis and imaging-based management of thyroid nodules. The review and recommendations in this report have been based on a comprehensive analysis of the current literature and the consensus of experts. PMID:27134526

Molecular diagnostics in gastric cancer.

PubMed

Bornschein, Jan; Leja, Marcis; Kupcinskas, Juozas; Link, Alexander; Weaver, Jamie; Rugge, Massimo; Malfertheiner, Peter

2014-01-01

Despite recent advances in individualised targeted therapy, gastric cancer remains one of the most challenging diseases in gastrointestinal oncology. Modern imaging techniques using endoscopic filter devices and in vivo molecular imaging are designed to enable early detection of the cancer and surveillance of patients at risk. Molecular characterisation of the tumour itself as well as of the surrounding inflammatory environment is more sophisticated in the view of tailored therapies and individual prognostic assessment. The broad application of high throughput techniques for the description of genome wide patterns of structural (copy number aberrations, single nucleotide polymorphisms, methylation pattern) and functional (gene expression profiling, proteomics, miRNA) alterations in the cancer tissue lead not only to a better understanding of the tumour biology but also to a description of gastric cancer subtypes independent from classical stratification systems. Biostatistical means are required for the interpretation of the massive amount of data generated by these approaches. In this review we give an overview on the current knowledge of diagnostic methods for detection, description and understanding of gastric cancer disease.

An Interoperable System toward Cardiac Risk Stratification from ECG Monitoring

PubMed Central

Mora-Jiménez, Inmaculada; Ramos-López, Javier; Quintanilla Fernández, Teresa; García-García, Antonio; Díez-Mazuela, Daniel; García-Alberola, Arcadi

2018-01-01

Many indices have been proposed for cardiovascular risk stratification from electrocardiogram signal processing, still with limited use in clinical practice. We created a system integrating the clinical definition of cardiac risk subdomains from ECGs and the use of diverse signal processing techniques. Three subdomains were defined from the joint analysis of the technical and clinical viewpoints. One subdomain was devoted to demographic and clinical data. The other two subdomains were intended to obtain widely defined risk indices from ECG monitoring: a simple-domain (heart rate turbulence (HRT)), and a complex-domain (heart rate variability (HRV)). Data provided by the three subdomains allowed for the generation of alerts with different intensity and nature, as well as for the grouping and scrutinization of patients according to the established processing and risk-thresholding criteria. The implemented system was tested by connecting data from real-world in-hospital electronic health records and ECG monitoring by considering standards for syntactic (HL7 messages) and semantic interoperability (archetypes based on CEN/ISO EN13606 and SNOMED-CT). The system was able to provide risk indices and to generate alerts in the health records to support decision-making. Overall, the system allows for the agile interaction of research and clinical practice in the Holter-ECG-based cardiac risk domain. PMID:29494497

A case of fulminant Type 1 diabetes following anti-PD1 immunotherapy in a genetically susceptible patient.

PubMed

Araújo, Manuel; Ligeiro, Dário; Costa, Luís; Marques, Filipa; Trindade, Helder; Correia, José Manuel; Fonseca, Candida

2017-06-01

Programmed cell death-1 protein (PD-1) is an immune checkpoint that has gained popularity in the treatment of several advanced cancers. Inhibiting this checkpoint is known to enhance immune response, but is also known to diminish immune tolerance and to increase autoimmune toxicity. We discuss a case of rapid onset fulminant Type 1 diabetes induced by treatment with anti-programmed cell death-1 monoclonal antibody, nivolumab, in a patient with late-stage non-small-cell lung adenocarcinoma. The patient had no history of previous diabetes but did reveal a high-risk genotype for Type 1 diabetes development (DR3-DQ2; DR4-DQ8). This finding supports that acute Type 1 diabetes can be an important adverse effect of immunotherapies targeting T-cell activation regulation. Because of the severity of this adverse effect, physicians should be aware of it, and studies directed to the detection of new biomarkers for early risk stratification (e.g., HLA) should be sought.

Inactive fibrotic lesions versus pulmonary tuberculosis with negative bacteriology.

PubMed

Solsona Peiró, Jordi; de Souza Galvão, Maria Luiza; Altet Gómez, Maria Neus

2014-11-01

This article analyzes the concept of inactive fibrotic lesions of presumed tuberculous origin (old healed tuberculosis), defined by radiological characteristics and a positive tuberculin skin test (TST), and we examine the evidence-based foundation for the indication of treatment of latent tuberculosis infection in these cases. We explore the risk of reactivation in older and recent literature, and the problems raised by the differential diagnosis with active tuberculosis with negative bacteriology. We also analyze data on the prevalence of fibrotic lesions in the recent literature. We examine the possible role of Interferon Gamma Release Assays (IGRAs) versus TST and other molecular antigen detection techniques in sputum that can aid in establishing the diagnosis and we discuss the current indications for chemoprophylaxis and the different options available. We propose diagnostic guidelines and therapeutic algorithms based on risk stratification by age and other factors in the management of radiological lesions that raise a differential diagnosis between fibrotic lesions and active pulmonary tuberculosis with negative bacteriology. Copyright © 2013 SEPAR. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Role of risk stratification by SPECT, PET, and hybrid imaging in guiding management of stable patients with ischaemic heart disease: expert panel of the EANM cardiovascular committee and EACVI.

PubMed

Acampa, Wanda; Gaemperli, Oliver; Gimelli, Alessia; Knaapen, Paul; Schindler, Thomas H; Verberne, Hein J; Zellweger, Michael J

2015-12-01

Risk stratification has become increasingly important in the management of patients with suspected or known ischaemic heart disease (IHD). Recent guidelines recommend that these patients have their care driven by risk assessment. The purpose of this position statement is to summarize current evidence on the value of cardiac single-photon emission computed tomography, positron emission tomography, and hybrid imaging in risk stratifying asymptomatic or symptomatic patients with suspected IHD, patients with stable disease, patients after coronary revascularization, heart failure patients, and specific patient population. In addition, this position statement evaluates the impact of imaging results on clinical decision-making and thereby its role in patient management. The document represents the opinion of the European Association of Nuclear Medicine (EANM) Cardiovascular Committee and of the European Association of Cardiovascular Imaging (EACVI) and intends to stimulate future research in this field. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2015. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Update on risk stratification and treatment of newly diagnosed multiple myeloma.

PubMed

Kapoor, Prashant; Rajkumar, S Vincent

2011-10-01

Multiple myeloma is the second most common hematologic malignancy. Chromosomal aberrations are important prognostic determinants that influence the clinical decision-making in newly-diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM). Patients are considered high-risk if any of the following features are detected: hypodiploidy, deletion 13 by cytogenetics, t(4;14), t(14;16), t(14;20) and/or 17 p deletion. In the absence of these features patients are considered standard risk. Outside of trials, risk-adapted therapy in the transplant-eligible high-risk patients advocates use of bortezomib-based induction therapy followed by autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) and bortezomib-based maintenance therapy. High-risk, transplant-ineligible patients should also utilize bortezomib as initial therapy since it is known to overcome the poor prognosis associated with some high-risk features. The goal of therapy in high-risk patients is to attain and maintain a state of complete remission as much as possible. In contrast, the standard-risk, transplant-eligible patients may be treated with either lenalidomide-dexamethasone or bortezomib-based therapy followed by ASCT. In such patients, ASCT can also be deferred until first relapse if the patients are tolerating initial therapy well. Lenalidomide maintenance therapy in the post-transplant setting in standard-risk patients is controversial and not recommended routinely. For transplant-ineligible standard-risk patients, multiple options exist, although in the absence direct comparisons, we prefer lenalidomide plus low-dose dexamethasone over melphalan-based combinations. This review outlines evidence-based management approaches in NDMM, with a focus on risk-adapted therapy.

Troponin T or troponin I or CK-MB (or none?).

PubMed

Collinson, P O

1998-11-01

Differential diagnosis of patients who present with chest pain remains problematical. It has been shown that 11.8-7% of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) are sent home from the emergency department (ED). Audit of our own ED has shown the incidence of missed prognostically significant myocardial damage to be 6.7%. Diagnostic criteria for AMI have classically been based on the triad of history, ECG and measurement of cardiac enzymes. The choice of 'cardiac enzymes' has been dictated by the evolution of laboratory techniques, commencing with measurement of aspartate transaminase and progressing to measurement of creatine kinase (CK) and its MB isoenzyme (CK-MB). Measurement of CK-MB has been shown by both clinical studies and rigorous statistical analysis to represent the best test for the diagnosis of AMI. The advent of real time immunoassay together with advances in therapeutic options for management of acute coronary syndromes (ACS) has resulted in a paradigm shift in the approach to laboratory testing. Immunoassay for CK-MB (CK-MB mass measurement) is diagnostically superior to CK-MB activity measurement and is the test of choice for 'classical' AMI. Development of immunoassays for the cardiac troponins, i.e. cardiac troponin T (cTnT) and cardiac troponin I (cTnI), has enhanced diagnostic specificity. These measurements are completely specific for cardiac damage, allow quantitation of the extent of infarction and are diagnostically superior to CK-MB measurement. Applications of this specificity have included the differential diagnosis of CK elevation in arduous physical training, detection of myocardial damage after DC cardioversion and prediction of ejection fraction. Of more interest is the utility of these markers in management of patients presenting without clear electrocardiographic changes. Diagnosis and management of patients presenting with ST segment elevation has been clarified by large clinical trials of thrombolytic agents. In such patients, thrombolysis is the treatment of choice. Patients presenting with ST segment elevation represents the minority of patients with probable ACS 9.6% of all patients presenting to our hospital. The majority require risk stratification into high- and low-risk groups. It is here that cardiac troponins have a major role. The measurement of cTnT has been shown in a large number of studies to enable risk stratification of patients with unstable angina. The combination of cTnT, admission ECG and stress ECG can be used for a comprehensive risk stratification of patients with unstable angina. The combination of cTnT, admission ECG and stress ECG can be used for a comprehensive risk stratification which can be completed by 24 h from admission, as well as allowing a safe discharge policy from the ED. Measurements of cardiac troponins can also be used to predict prognosis in patients with other diagnostic categories. Patients with cardiac failure can be risk stratified according to cTnT status. cTnT status on admission allows subdivision into high- and low-risk groups in patients presenting with ST segment elevation. Certainly, cTnT measurement can be incorporated into a clinical decision-making strategy to assign patients to investigation and management pathways. There is evidence that cTnT may be useful to guide therapeutic options. The major issue is one of cost. In the U.K. model of managed care with undemanding diagnostic standards, the role of cTnT will be to enhance clinical decision-making strategies, to provide accurate diagnosis and to reduce lengths of stay. This can be shown to have potential for major improvements in cost efficiency. Improvements in diagnostic accuracy can reduce inappropriate long-term drug therapy. In systems with a more aggressive laboratory investigation strategy, rationalization of test numbers will provide an immediate cost reduction while improving quality. Finally, use of point-of-care testing (POCT) means that biochemical testing can be pe

Risk stratification of patients with diabetes and the role of sodium glucose co-transporter inhibitors 2 during Ramadan fasting.

PubMed

Adnan, Zaina

2017-09-01

The month of Ramadan represents a golden opportunity for better management of patients with diabetes not only during Ramadan month, but also through the entire year. Pre Ramadan period is crucial for evaluating and preparing patients with diabetes intending to Fast Ramadan. The risk stratification categories should take into consideration patients with diabetes having specific conditions such as nephrotic syndrome who are predisposed to thrombosis independent to their estimated glomerular filtration rate and glycated haemoglobin. Furthermore, population-specific conditions such as nomadic Bedouins living in remote areas should be considered as part of the very high risk category for fasting Ramadan. Published data regarding the use of sodium glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors during Ramadan is very limited. Dapagliflozin was the only agent studied during Ramadan. Therefore, it is suggested to categorize this group of agents differently from other agents such as metformin and incretin based therapy studied vastly during Ramadan. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Neuroblastoma: clinical and biological approach to risk stratification and treatment.

PubMed

Tolbert, Vanessa P; Matthay, Katherine K

2018-05-01

Neuroblastoma is the most common extra-cranial solid tumor of childhood and the most common in the first year of life. It is a unique malignancy in that infants often present with either localized or metastatic disease that can spontaneously regress without intervention while older children can succumb to the disease after months to years of arduous therapy. Given this wide range of outcomes, the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group was created to stratify patients based on presenting characteristics and tumor biology in order to guide intensity of treatment strategies. The goal has been to decrease therapy for low-risk patients to avoid long-term complications while augmenting and targeting therapies for high-risk patients to improve overall survival. The international risk stratification depends on age, stage, histology, MYCN gene amplification status, tumor cell ploidy and segmental chromosomal abnormalities. Treatment for asymptomatic low-risk patients with an estimated survival of > 98% is often observation or surgical resection alone, whereas intermediate-risk patients with an estimated survival of > 90% require moderate doses of response-adjusted chemotherapy along with resection. High-risk patients undergo multiple cycles of combination chemotherapy before surgery, followed by consolidation with myeloablative autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation and local radiation and finally immunotherapy with differentiation therapy as maintenance phase. With this approach, outcome for patients with neuroblastoma has improved, as the field continues to expand efforts in more targeted therapies for high-risk patients.

Surveillance of Pediatric Cardiac Surgical Outcome Using Risk Stratifications at a Tertiary Care Center in Thailand

PubMed Central

Vijarnsorn, Chodchanok; Laohaprasitiporn, Duangmanee; Durongpisitkul, Kritvikrom; Chantong, Prakul; Soongswang, Jarupim; Cheungsomprasong, Paweena; Nana, Apichart; Sriyoschati, Somchai; Subtaweesin, Thawon; Thongcharoen, Punnarerk; Prakanrattana, Ungkab; Krobprachya, Jiraporn; Pooliam, Julaporn

2011-01-01

Objectives. To determine in-hospital mortality and complications of cardiac surgery in pediatric patients and identify predictors of hospital mortality. Methods. Records of pediatric patients who had undergone cardiac surgery in 2005 were reviewed retrospectively. The risk adjustment for congenital heart surgery (RACHS-1) method, the Aristotle basic complexity score (ABC score), and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons and the European Association for Cardiothoracic Surgery Mortality score (STS-EACTS score) were used as measures. Potential predictors were analyzed by risk analysis. Results. 230 pediatric patients had undergone congenital cardiac surgery. Overall, the mortality discharge was 6.1%. From the ROC curve of the RACHS-1, the ABC level, and the STS-EACTS categories, the validities were determined to be 0.78, 0.74, and 0.67, respectively. Mortality risks were found at the high complexity levels of the three tools, bypass time >85 min, and cross clamp time >60 min. Common morbidities were postoperative pyrexia, bleeding, and pleural effusion. Conclusions. Overall mortality and morbidities were 6.1%. The RACHS-1 method, ABC score, and STS-EACTS score were helpful for risk stratification. PMID:21738856

Overview of the 2015 American Thyroid Association guidelines for managing thyroid nodules and differentiated thyroid cancer.

PubMed

Matti, Bashar; Cohen-Hallaleh, Ruben

2016-09-09

The last few years have witnessed numerous publications addressing the management of thyroid nodules and differentiated thyroid cancers. The purpose of this review is to provide a simplified summary of the newly released guidelines by the American Thyroid Association. A systematic approach has been recommended to evaluate a thyroid nodule through clinical assessment, measurement of serum Thyroid Stimulating Hormone, neck ultrasonography and Fine Needle Aspiration where appropriate. This is followed by cytology analysis using the Bethesda scoring system to detect malignancy. Once diagnosed, thyroid cancers need to be staged and risk stratification needs to be applied to develop further treatment plans. Lastly, several recommendations have been presented to assure proper follow-up and support for thyroid cancer patients regardless of the treatment received.

Physical Therapists' Ability to Identify Psychological Factors and Their Self-Reported Competence to Manage Chronic Low Back Pain.

PubMed

Brunner, Emanuel; Dankaerts, Wim; Meichtry, André; O'Sullivan, Kieran; Probst, Michel

2018-06-01

In the management of chronic low back pain (LBP), identifying and managing more patients who are at high risk and who have psychological barriers to recovery is important yet difficult. The objective of this study was to test physical therapists' ability to allocate patients into risk stratification groups, test correlations between therapists' assessments of psychological factors and patient questionnaires, and explore relationships between psychological factors and therapists' self-reported competence to manage patients with chronic LBP. This was a pragmatic, observational study. Patients completed the STarT Back Tool (SBT, for risk stratification), the Four-Dimensional Symptom Questionnaire (distress, depression, anxiety), and the Tampa Scale of Kinesiophobia (kinesiophobia) prior to the intake session. After this session, physical therapists estimated patient prognostic risk using the 3 SBT categories and rated patient psychological factors using a 0-to-10 scale. Finally, therapists reported their self-reported competence to manage the patient. Intraclass and Spearman rank correlations tested correlations between therapists' intuitive assessments and patient questionnaires. A linear-mixed model explored relationships between psychological factors and therapists' self-reported competence. Forty-nine patients were managed by 20 therapists. Therapists accurately estimated SBT risk allocation in only 41% of patients. Correlations between therapist perceptions and patient questionnaires were moderate for distress (r = 0.602) and fair for depression (r = 0.304) and anxiety (r = 0.327). There was no correlation for kinesiophobia (r = -0.007). Patient distress was identified as a negative predictor of therapists' self-reported competence. This was a cross-sectional study, conducted in only 1 center. Physical therapists were not very accurate at allocating patients into risk stratification groups or identifying psychological factors. Therapists' self-reported competence in managing patients was lowest when patients reported higher distress.

Plaque hemorrhage in carotid artery disease: pathogenesis, clinical and biomechanical considerations.

PubMed

Teng, Zhongzhao; Sadat, Umar; Brown, Adam J; Gillard, Jonathan H

2014-03-03

Stroke remains the most prevalent disabling illness today, with internal carotid artery luminal stenosis due to atheroma formation responsible for the majority of ischemic cerebrovascular events. Severity of luminal stenosis continues to dictate both patient risk stratification and the likelihood of surgical intervention. But there is growing evidence to suggest that plaque morphology may help improve pre-existing risk stratification criteria. Plaque components such a fibrous tissue, lipid rich necrotic core and calcium have been well investigated but plaque hemorrhage (PH) has been somewhat overlooked. In this review we discuss the pathogenesis of PH, its role in dictating plaque vulnerability, PH imaging techniques, marterial properties of atherosclerotic tissues, in particular, those obtained based on in vivo measurements and effect of PH in modulating local biomechanics. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preventing tomorrow's sudden cardiac death today: part I: Current data on risk stratification for sudden cardiac death.

PubMed

Al-Khatib, Sana M; Sanders, Gillian D; Bigger, J Thomas; Buxton, Alfred E; Califf, Robert M; Carlson, Mark; Curtis, Anne; Curtis, Jeptha; Fain, Eric; Gersh, Bernard J; Gold, Michael R; Haghighi-Mood, Ali; Hammill, Stephen C; Healey, Jeff; Hlatky, Mark; Hohnloser, Stefan; Kim, Raymond J; Lee, Kerry; Mark, Daniel; Mianulli, Marcus; Mitchell, Brent; Prystowsky, Eric N; Smith, Joseph; Steinhaus, David; Zareba, Wojciech

2007-06-01

Accurate and timely prediction of sudden cardiac death (SCD) is a necessary prerequisite for effective prevention and therapy. Although the largest number of SCD events occurs in patients without overt heart disease, there are currently no tests that are of proven predictive value in this population. Efforts in risk stratification for SCD have focused primarily on predicting SCD in patients with known structural heart disease. Despite the ubiquity of tests that have been purported to predict SCD vulnerability in such patients, there is little consensus on which test, in addition to the left ventricular ejection fraction, should be used to determine which patients will benefit from an implantable cardioverter defibrillator. On July 20 and 21, 2006, a group of experts representing clinical cardiology, cardiac electrophysiology, biostatistics, economics, and health policy were joined by representatives of the US Food and Drug administration, Centers for Medicare Services, Agency for Health Research and Quality, the Heart Rhythm Society, and the device and pharmaceutical industry for a round table meeting to review current data on strategies of risk stratification for SCD, to explore methods to translate these strategies into practice and policy, and to identify areas that need to be addressed by future research studies. The meeting was organized by the Duke Center for the Prevention of SCD at the Duke Clinical Research Institute and was funded by industry participants. This article summarizes the presentations and discussions that occurred at that meeting.

Cardiac stress test as a risk-stratification tool for posttransplant cardiac outcomes in diabetic kidney transplant recipients.

PubMed

Singh, Neeraj; Parikh, Samir; Bhatt, Udayan; Vonvisger, Jon; Nori, Uday; Hasan, Ayesha; Samavedi, Srinivas; Andreoni, Kenneth; Henry, Mitchell; Pelletier, Ronald; Rajab, Amer; Elkhammas, Elmahdi; Pesavento, Todd

2012-12-27

The utility of cardiac stress testing as a risk-stratification tool before kidney transplantation remains debatable owing to discordance with coronary angiography and outcome yields at different centers. We conducted a retrospective study of 273 diabetic kidney transplant recipients from 2006 to 2010. By protocol, all diabetic patients underwent pharmacological radionucleotide stress test or dobutamine stress echocardiography before transplant. We compared the 1-year cardiac outcomes between those with negative stress test results and those with positive stress test results. Patients with a positive stress test result (n=67) underwent coronary angiogram, and significant coronary artery disease (≥70% coronary stenosis) was found in 35 (52.2%) patients. Of the latter, 32 (91.4%) underwent cardiac revascularization (24 underwent cardiac stenting and 8 underwent coronary artery bypass grafting). The rest (n=35) were treated medically. Within 1 year after transplant, the group with positive stress test results experienced more cardiac events (34.3% vs. 3.9%, P<0.001) including acute myocardial infarction (22.4% vs. 3.4%, P<0.001) and ventricular arrhythmias (8.9% vs. 0.05%, P=0.001), higher all-cause mortality (19.4% vs. 4.8%, P<0.001), and cardiac mortality (17.9% vs. 0.9%, P<0.001) compared with the group with negative stress test results. In this diabetic population, stress testing showed positive and negative predictive values of 34.3% and 96.1%, respectively. Pharmacological cardiac stress testing provided excellent risk stratification in diabetic kidney transplant recipients.

Standardized reporting guidelines for emergency department syncope risk-stratification research.

PubMed

Sun, Benjamin C; Thiruganasambandamoorthy, Venkatesh; Cruz, Jeffrey Dela

2012-06-01

There is increasing research interest in the risk stratification of emergency department (ED) syncope patients. A major barrier to comparing and synthesizing existing research is wide variation in the conduct and reporting of studies. The authors wanted to create standardized reporting guidelines for ED syncope risk-stratification research using an expert consensus process. In that pursuit, a panel of syncope researchers was convened and a literature review was performed to identify candidate reporting guideline elements. Candidate elements were grouped into four sections: eligibility criteria, outcomes, electrocardiogram (ECG) findings, and predictors. A two-round, modified Delphi consensus process was conducted using an Internet-based survey application. In the first round, candidate elements were rated on a five-point Likert scale. In the second round, panelists rerated items after receiving information about group ratings from the first round. Items that were rated by >80% of the panelists at the two highest levels of the Likert scale were included in the final guidelines. There were 24 panelists from eight countries who represented five clinical specialties. The panel identified an initial set of 183 candidate elements. After two survey rounds, the final reporting guidelines included 92 items that achieved >80% consensus. These included 10 items for study eligibility, 23 items for outcomes, nine items for ECG abnormalities, and 50 items for candidate predictors. Adherence to these guidelines should facilitate comparison of future research in this area. © 2012 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Detection of Oil in Water Column, Final Report: Detection Prototype Tests

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-07-01

first phase of the project involved initial development and testing of three technologies to address the detection problem . This second phase...important oceanic phenomena such as density stratification and naturally occurring particulate matter, which will affect the performance of sensors in the ...2 UNCLAS//Public | CG-926 RDC | M. Fitzpatrick, et al.| Public July 2014 spills of submerged oil is far more complex due to the problems

Feasibility of the AML profiler (Skyline™ Array) for patient risk stratification in a multicentre trial: a preliminary comparison with the conventional approach.

PubMed

Nomdedéu, Josep F; Puigdecanet, Eulalia; Bussaglia, Elena; Hernández, Juan José; Carricondo, Maite; Estivill, Camino; Martí-Tutusaus, Josep Maria; Tormo, Mar; Zamora, Lurdes; Serrano, Elena; Perea, Granada; de Llano, Maria Paz Queipo; García, Antoni; Sánchez-Ortega, Isabel; Ribera, Josep Maria; Nonell, Lara; Aventin, Anna; Solé, Francesc; Brunet, Maria Salut; Sierra, Jorge

2017-12-01

Deoxyribonucleic acid microarrays allow researchers to measure mRNA levels of thousands of genes in a single experiment and could be useful for diagnostic purposes in patients with acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). We assessed the feasibility of the AML profiler (Skyline™ Array) in genetic stratification of patients with de novo AML and compared the results with those obtained using the standard cytogenetic and molecular approach. Diagnostic bone marrow from 31 consecutive de novo AML cases was used to test MLL-PTD, FLT3-ITD and TKD, NPM1 and CEBPAdm mutations. Purified RNA was used to assess RUNX1-RUNX1T1, PML-RARα and CBFβ-MYH11 rearrangements. RNA remnants underwent gene expression profiling analysis using the AML profiler, which detects chromosomal aberrations: t(8;21), t(15;17), inv(16), mutations (CEBPAdm, ABD-NPM1) and BAALC and EVI1 expression. Thirty cases were successfully analysed with both methods. Five cases had FLT3-ITD. In one case, a t(8;21) was correctly detected by both methods. Four cases had inv(16); in one, the RNA quality was unsatisfactory and it was not hybridized, and in the other three, the AML profiler detected the genetic lesion - this being a rare type I translocation in one case. Two cases with acute promyelocytic leukaemia were diagnosed by both methods. Results for NPM1 mutations were concordant in all but two cases (2/11, non-ABD mutations). Analysis of costs and turnaround times showed that the AML profiler was no more expensive than the conventional molecular approach. These results suggest that the AML profiler could be useful in multicentre trials to rapidly identify patients with AML with a good prognosis. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Third trimester fetal heart rate predicts phenotype and mutation burden in the type 1 long QT syndrome.

PubMed

Winbo, Annika; Fosdal, Inger; Lindh, Maria; Diamant, Ulla-Britt; Persson, Johan; Wettrell, Göran; Rydberg, Annika

2015-08-01

Early diagnosis and risk stratification is of clinical importance in the long QT syndrome (LQTS), however, little genotype-specific data are available regarding fetal LQTS. We investigate third trimester fetal heart rate, routinely recorded within public maternal health care, as a possible marker for LQT1 genotype and phenotype. This retrospective study includes 184 fetuses from 2 LQT1 founder populations segregating p.Y111C and p.R518X (74 noncarriers and 110 KCNQ1 mutation carriers, whereof 13 double mutation carriers). Pedigree-based measured genotype analysis revealed significant associations between fetal heart rate, genotype, and phenotype; mean third trimester prelabor fetal heart rates obtained from obstetric records (gestational week 29-41) were lower per added mutation (no mutation, 143±5 beats per minute; single mutation, 134±8 beats per minute; double mutations, 111±6 beats per minute; P<0.0001), and lower in symptomatic versus asymptomatic mutation carriers (122±10 versus 137±9 beats per minute; P<0.0001). Strong correlations between fetal heart rate and neonatal heart rate (r=0.700; P<0.001), and postnatal QTc (r=-0.762; P<0.001) were found. In a multivariable model, fetal genotype explained the majority of variance in fetal heart rate (-10 beats per minute per added mutation; P<1.0×10(-23)). Arrhythmia symptoms and intrauterine β-blocker exposure each predicted -7 beats per minute, P<0.0001. In this study including 184 fetuses from 2 LQT1 founder populations, third trimester fetal heart rate discriminated between fetal genotypes and correlated with severity of postnatal cardiac phenotype. This finding strengthens the role of fetal heart rate in the early detection and risk stratification of LQTS, particularly for fetuses with double mutations, at high risk of early life-threatening arrhythmias. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Predicting Geriatric Falls Following an Episode of Emergency Department Care: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Carpenter, Christopher R.; Avidan, Michael S.; Wildes, Tanya; Stark, Susan; Fowler, Susan A.; Lo, Alexander X.

2015-01-01

Background Falls are the leading cause of traumatic mortality in geriatric adults. Despite recent multispecialty guideline recommendations that advocate for proactive fall prevention protocols in the emergency department (ED), the ability of risk factors or risk stratification instruments to identify subsets of geriatric patients at increased risk for short-term falls is largely unexplored. Objectives This was a systematic review and meta-analysis of ED-based history, physical examination, and fall risk stratification instruments with the primary objective of providing a quantitative estimate for each risk factor’s accuracy to predict future falls. A secondary objective was to quantify ED fall risk assessment test and treatment thresholds using derived estimates of sensitivity and specificity. Methods A medical librarian and two emergency physicians (EPs) conducted a medical literature search of PUBMED, EMBASE, CINAHL, CENTRAL, DARE, the Cochrane Registry, and Clinical Trials. Unpublished research was located by a hand search of emergency medicine (EM) research abstracts from national meetings. Inclusion criteria for original studies included ED-based assessment of pre-ED or post-ED fall risk in patients 65 years and older with sufficient detail to reproduce contingency tables for meta-analysis. Original study authors were contacted for additional details when necessary. The Quality Assessment Tool for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) was used to assess individual study quality for those studies that met inclusion criteria. When more than one qualitatively similar study assessed the same risk factor for falls at the same interval following an ED evaluation, then meta-analysis was performed using Meta-DiSc software. The primary outcomes were sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios for fall risk factors or risk stratification instruments. Secondary outcomes included estimates of test and treatment thresholds using the Pauker method based on accuracy, screening risk, and the projected benefits or harms of fall prevention interventions in the ED. Results A total of 608 unique and potentially relevant studies were identified, but only three met our inclusion criteria. Two studies that included 660 patients assessed 29 risk factors and two risk stratification instruments for falls in geriatric patients in the 6 months following an ED evaluation, while one study of 107 patients assessed the risk of falls in the preceding 12 months. A self-report of depression was associated with the highest positive likelihood ratio (LR) of 6.55 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.41 to 30.48). Six fall predictors were identified in more than one study (past falls, living alone, use of walking aid, depression, cognitive deficit, and more than six medications) and meta-analysis was performed for these risk factors. One screening instrument was sufficiently accurate to identify a subset of geriatric ED patients at low risk for falls with a negative LR of 0.11 (95% CI = 0.06 to 0.20). The test threshold was 6.6% and the treatment threshold was 27.5%. Conclusions This study demonstrates the paucity of evidence in the literature regarding ED-based screening for risk of future falls among older adults. The screening tools and individual characteristics identified in this study provide an evidentiary basis on which to develop screening protocols for geriatrics adults in the ED to reduce fall risk PMID:25293956

Predicting geriatric falls following an episode of emergency department care: a systematic review.

PubMed

Carpenter, Christopher R; Avidan, Michael S; Wildes, Tanya; Stark, Susan; Fowler, Susan A; Lo, Alexander X

2014-10-01

Falls are the leading cause of traumatic mortality in geriatric adults. Despite recent multispecialty guideline recommendations that advocate for proactive fall prevention protocols in the emergency department (ED), the ability of risk factors or risk stratification instruments to identify subsets of geriatric patients at increased risk for short-term falls is largely unexplored. This was a systematic review and meta-analysis of ED-based history, physical examination, and fall risk stratification instruments with the primary objective of providing a quantitative estimate for each risk factor's accuracy to predict future falls. A secondary objective was to quantify ED fall risk assessment test and treatment thresholds using derived estimates of sensitivity and specificity. A medical librarian and two emergency physicians (EPs) conducted a medical literature search of PUBMED, EMBASE, CINAHL, CENTRAL, DARE, the Cochrane Registry, and Clinical Trials. Unpublished research was located by a hand search of emergency medicine (EM) research abstracts from national meetings. Inclusion criteria for original studies included ED-based assessment of pre-ED or post-ED fall risk in patients 65 years and older with sufficient detail to reproduce contingency tables for meta-analysis. Original study authors were contacted for additional details when necessary. The Quality Assessment Tool for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) was used to assess individual study quality for those studies that met inclusion criteria. When more than one qualitatively similar study assessed the same risk factor for falls at the same interval following an ED evaluation, then meta-analysis was performed using Meta-DiSc software. The primary outcomes were sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios for fall risk factors or risk stratification instruments. Secondary outcomes included estimates of test and treatment thresholds using the Pauker method based on accuracy, screening risk, and the projected benefits or harms of fall prevention interventions in the ED. A total of 608 unique and potentially relevant studies were identified, but only three met our inclusion criteria. Two studies that included 660 patients assessed 29 risk factors and two risk stratification instruments for falls in geriatric patients in the 6 months following an ED evaluation, while one study of 107 patients assessed the risk of falls in the preceding 12 months. A self-report of depression was associated with the highest positive likelihood ratio (LR) of 6.55 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.41 to 30.48). Six fall predictors were identified in more than one study (past falls, living alone, use of walking aid, depression, cognitive deficit, and more than six medications) and meta-analysis was performed for these risk factors. One screening instrument was sufficiently accurate to identify a subset of geriatric ED patients at low risk for falls with a negative LR of 0.11 (95% CI = 0.06 to 0.20). The test threshold was 6.6% and the treatment threshold was 27.5%. This study demonstrates the paucity of evidence in the literature regarding ED-based screening for risk of future falls among older adults. The screening tools and individual characteristics identified in this study provide an evidentiary basis on which to develop screening protocols for geriatrics adults in the ED to reduce fall risk. © 2014 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Evaluation of the Revised International Staging System in an independent cohort of unselected patients with multiple myeloma

PubMed Central

Kastritis, Efstathios; Terpos, Evangelos; Roussou, Maria; Gavriatopoulou, Maria; Migkou, Magdalini; Eleutherakis-Papaiakovou, Evangelos; Fotiou, Despoina; Ziogas, Dimitrios; Panagiotidis, Ioannis; Kafantari, Eftychia; Giannouli, Stavroula; Zomas, Athanasios; Konstantopoulos, Konstantinos; Dimopoulos, Meletios A.

2017-01-01

The Revised International Staging System (R-ISS) was recently introduced in order to improve risk stratification over that provided by the widely used standard International Staging System. In addition to the parameters of the standard system, the R-ISS incorporates the presence of chromosomal abnormalities detected by interphase fluorescence in situ hybridization [t(4;14), t(14;16) and del17p] and elevated serum lactate dehydrogenase. The R-ISS was formulated on the basis of a large dataset of selected patients who had participated in clinical trials and has not been validated in an independent cohort of unselected patients. Thus, we evaluated the R-ISS in 475 consecutive, unselected patients, treated in a single center. Our patients were older and more often had severe renal dysfunction than those in the original publication on the R-ISS. As regards distribution by group, 18% had R-ISS-1, 64.5% R-ISS-2 and 18% R-ISS-3. According to R-ISS group, the 5-year survival rate was 77%, 53% and 19% for R-ISS-1, -2 and -3, respectively (P<0.001). The R-ISS could identify three groups with distinct outcomes among patients treated with or without autologous stem cell transplantation, among those treated with either bortezomib-based or immunomodulatory drug-based primary therapy and in patients ≤65, 66–75 or >75 years. However, in patients with severe renal dysfunction the distinction between groups was less clear. In conclusion, our data in consecutive, unselected patients, with differences in the characteristics and treatment approaches compared to the original International Myeloma Working Group cohort, verified that R-ISS is a robust tool for risk stratification of newly diagnosed patients with symptomatic myeloma. PMID:27789676

Improving rural and remote practitioners' knowledge of the diabetic foot: findings from an educational intervention.

PubMed

Schoen, Deborah E; Gausia, Kaniz; Glance, David G; Thompson, Sandra C

2016-01-01

This study aimed to determine knowledge of national guidelines for diabetic foot assessment and risk stratification by rural and remote healthcare professionals in Western Australia and their implementation in practice. Assessment of diabetic foot knowledge, availability of equipment and delivery of foot care education in a primary healthcare setting at baseline enabled evaluation of the effectiveness of a diabetic foot education and training program for generalist healthcare professionals. This study employed a quasi-experimental pre-test/post-test study design. Healthcare practitioners' knowledge, attitudes and practice of diabetic foot assessment, diabetic foot risks, risk stratification, and use of the 2011 National Health and Medical Research Council Guidelines were investigated with an electronic pre-test survey(.) Healthcare professionals then undertook a 3-h education and training workshop before completing the electronic post-test knowledge, attitudes and practice survey. Comparison of pre-test/post-test survey findings was used to assess the change in knowledge, attitudes and intended practice due to the workshops. Two hundred and forty-six healthcare professionals from two rural and remote health regions of Western Australia participated in training workshops. Monofilaments and diabetes foot care education brochures, particularly brochures for Aboriginal people, were reported as not readily available in rural and remote health services. For most participants (58 %), their post-test knowledge score increased significantly from the pre-test score. Use of the Guidelines in clinical settings was low (19 %). The healthcare professionals' baseline diabetic foot knowledge was adequate to correctly identify the high risk category. However, stratification of the intermediate risk category was poor, even after training. This study reports the first assessment of Western Australia's rural and remote health professionals' knowledge, attitudes and practices regarding the diabetic foot. It shows that without training, generalists' levels of knowledge concerning the diabetic foot was low and they were unlikely to assess foot risk. The findings from this study in a rural and remote setting cast doubt on the ability of generalist healthcare professionals to stratify risk appropriately, especially for those at intermediate risk, without clinical decision support tools.

Therapeutic Decisions in Atrial Fibrillation for Stroke Prevention: The Role of Aversion to Ambiguity and Physicians' Risk Preferences.

PubMed

Sposato, Luciano A; Stirling, Devin; Saposnik, Gustavo

2018-04-09

Knowledge-to-action gaps influence therapeutic decisions in atrial fibrillation (AF). Physician-related factors are common, but the least studied. We evaluated the prevalence and determinants of physician-related factors and knowledge-to-action gaps among physicians involved in the management of AF patients. In this cross-sectional study, participants from 6 South American countries recruited during an educational program answered questions regarding 16 case scenarios of patients with AF and completed experiments assessing 3 outcome measures: therapeutic inertia, herding, and errors in risk stratification knowledge translated into action (ERSKTA) based on commonly used stratification tools (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75 years (double), Diabetes mellitus, previous Stroke/transient ischemic attack/thromboembolism (double), Vascular disease, Age 65-74 years, and female gender (score of 0 for males and 1 for female) (CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc) and Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75 years, Diabetes mellitus, and previous Stroke/transient ischemic attack (double) (CHADS 2 )). Logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine factors associated with the outcomes. Overall, 149 physicians were invited to participate, of which 88 (59.1%) completed the online assessment tool. Cardiology was the most frequent specialty (69.3%). Therapeutic inertia was present in 53 participants (60.2%), herding in 66 (75.0%), and ERSKTA in 46 (52.3%). Therapeutic inertia was inversely associated with willingness to take financial risks (odds ratio [OR] .72, 95% confidence interval [CI] .59-.89 per point in the financial risk propensity score), herding was associated with aversion to ambiguity in the medical domain (OR 5.35, 95% CI 1.40-20.46), and ERSKTA was associated with the willingness to take risks (OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.15-2.50, per point in score). Among physicians involved in stroke prevention in AF, individual risk preferences and aversion to ambiguity lead to therapeutic inertia, herding, and errors in risk stratification and subsequent use of oral anticoagulants. Educational interventions, including formal training in risk management and decision-making are needed. Copyright © 2018 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Proposal for a new risk stratification classification for meningioma based on patient age, WHO tumor grade, size, localization, and karyotype

PubMed Central

Domingues, Patrícia Henriques; Sousa, Pablo; Otero, Álvaro; Gonçalves, Jesus Maria; Ruiz, Laura; de Oliveira, Catarina; Lopes, Maria Celeste; Orfao, Alberto; Tabernero, Maria Dolores

2014-01-01

Background Tumor recurrence remains the major clinical complication of meningiomas, the majority of recurrences occurring among WHO grade I/benign tumors. In the present study, we propose a new scoring system for the prognostic stratification of meningioma patients based on analysis of a large series of meningiomas followed for a median of >5 years. Methods Tumor cytogenetics were systematically investigated by interphase fluorescence in situ hybridization in 302 meningioma samples, and the proposed classification was further validated in an independent series of cases (n = 132) analyzed by high-density (500K) single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) arrays. Results Overall, we found an adverse impact on patient relapse-free survival (RFS) for males, presence of brain edema, younger patients (<55 years), tumor size >50 mm, tumor localization at intraventricular and anterior cranial base areas, WHO grade II/III meningiomas, and complex karyotypes; the latter 5 variables showed an independent predictive value in multivariate analysis. Based on these parameters, a prognostic score was established for each individual case, and patients were stratified into 4 risk categories with significantly different (P < .001) outcomes. These included a good prognosis group, consisting of approximately 20% of cases, that showed a RFS of 100% ± 0% at 10 years and a very poor-prognosis group with a RFS rate of 0% ± 0% at 10 years. The prognostic impact of the scoring system proposed here was also retained when WHO grade I cases were considered separately (P < .001). Conclusions Based on this risk-stratification classification, different strategies may be adopted for follow-up, and eventually also for treatment, of meningioma patients at different risks for relapse. PMID:24536048

CD200/BTLA deletions in pediatric precursor B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia treated according to the EORTC-CLG 58951 protocol

PubMed Central

Ghazavi, Farzaneh; Clappier, Emmanuelle; Lammens, Tim; Suciu, Stefan; Caye, Aurélie; Zegrari, Samira; Bakkus, Marleen; Grardel, Nathalie; Benoit, Yves; Bertrand, Yves; Minckes, Odile; Costa, Vitor; Ferster, Alina; Mazingue, Françoise; Plat, Geneviève; Plouvier, Emmanuel; Poirée, Marilyne; Uyttebroeck, Anne; van der Werff-ten Bosch, Jutte; Yakouben, Karima; Helsmoortel, Hetty; Meul, Magali; Van Roy, Nadine; Philippé, Jan; Speleman, Frank; Cavé, Hélène; Van Vlierberghe, Pieter; De Moerloose, Barbara

2015-01-01

DNA copy number analysis has been instrumental for the identification of genetic alterations in B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Notably, some of these genetic defects have been associated with poor treatment outcome and might be relevant for future risk stratification. In this study, we characterized recurrent deletions of CD200 and BTLA genes, mediated by recombination-activating genes, and used breakpoint-specific polymerase chain reaction assay to screen a cohort of 1154 cases of B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia uniformly treated according to the EORTC-CLG 58951 protocol. CD200/BTLA deletions were identified in 56 of the patients (4.8%) and were associated with an inferior 8-year event free survival in this treatment protocol [70.2% ± 1.2% for patients with deletions versus 83.5% ± 6.4% for non-deleted cases (hazard ratio 2.02; 95% confidence interval 1.23–3.32; P=0.005)]. Genetically, CD200/BTLA deletions were strongly associated with ETV6-RUNX1-positive leukemias (P<0.0001), but were also identified in patients who did not have any genetic abnormality that is currently used for risk stratification. Within the latter population of patients, the presence of CD200/BTLA deletions was associated with inferior event-free survival and overall survival. Moreover, the multivariate Cox model indicated that these deletions had independent prognostic impact on event-free survival when adjusting for conventional risk criteria. All together, these findings further underscore the rationale for copy number profiling as an important tool for risk stratification in human B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia. This trial was registered at www.ClinicalTrials.gov as #NCT00003728. PMID:26137961

CD200/BTLA deletions in pediatric precursor B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia treated according to the EORTC-CLG 58951 protocol.

PubMed

Ghazavi, Farzaneh; Clappier, Emmanuelle; Lammens, Tim; Suciu, Stefan; Caye, Aurélie; Zegrari, Samira; Bakkus, Marleen; Grardel, Nathalie; Benoit, Yves; Bertrand, Yves; Minckes, Odile; Costa, Vitor; Ferster, Alina; Mazingue, Françoise; Plat, Geneviève; Plouvier, Emmanuel; Poirée, Marilyne; Uyttebroeck, Anne; van der Werff-Ten Bosch, Jutte; Yakouben, Karima; Helsmoortel, Hetty; Meul, Magali; Van Roy, Nadine; Philippé, Jan; Speleman, Frank; Cavé, Hélène; Van Vlierberghe, Pieter; De Moerloose, Barbara

2015-10-01

DNA copy number analysis has been instrumental for the identification of genetic alterations in B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Notably, some of these genetic defects have been associated with poor treatment outcome and might be relevant for future risk stratification. In this study, we characterized recurrent deletions of CD200 and BTLA genes, mediated by recombination-activating genes, and used breakpoint-specific polymerase chain reaction assay to screen a cohort of 1154 cases of B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia uniformly treated according to the EORTC-CLG 58951 protocol. CD200/BTLA deletions were identified in 56 of the patients (4.8%) and were associated with an inferior 8-year event free survival in this treatment protocol [70.2% ± 1.2% for patients with deletions versus 83.5% ± 6.4% for non-deleted cases (hazard ratio 2.02; 95% confidence interval 1.23-3.32; P=0.005)]. Genetically, CD200/BTLA deletions were strongly associated with ETV6-RUNX1-positive leukemias (P<0.0001), but were also identified in patients who did not have any genetic abnormality that is currently used for risk stratification. Within the latter population of patients, the presence of CD200/BTLA deletions was associated with inferior event-free survival and overall survival. Moreover, the multivariate Cox model indicated that these deletions had independent prognostic impact on event-free survival when adjusting for conventional risk criteria. All together, these findings further underscore the rationale for copy number profiling as an important tool for risk stratification in human B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia. This trial was registered at www.ClinicalTrials.gov as #NCT00003728. Copyright© Ferrata Storti Foundation.

The risk stratification and prognostic evaluation of soluble programmed death-1 on patients with sepsis in emergency department.

PubMed

Zhao, Yongzhen; Jia, Yumei; Li, Chunsheng; Fang, Yingying; Shao, Rui

2018-01-01

To evaluate the efficacy of soluble programmed death-1 (sPD-1) for risk stratification and prediction of 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis, we compared serum sPD-1 with procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), and the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score. A total of 60 healthy volunteers and 595 emergency department (ED) patients were recruited for this prospective cohort study. According to the severity of their condition on ED arrival, the patients were allocated to the systemic inflammatory response syndrome group (130 cases), sepsis group (276 cases), severe sepsis group (121 cases), and septic shock group (68 cases). In addition, all patients with sepsis were also divided into the survivor group (349 cases) and nonsurvivor group (116 cases) according to the 28-day outcomes. When the severity of sepsis increased, the levels of sPD-1 gradually increased. The levels of sPD-1, PCT, CRP and the MEDS score were also higher in the nonsurvivor group compared to the survivor group. Logistic regression suggested that sPD-1, PCT, and the MEDS score were independent risk factors for 28-day mortality of patients with sepsis. Area under the curve (AUC) of sPD-1, PCT and the MEDS score for 28-day mortality was 0.725, 0.693, and 0.767, respectively, and the AUC was improved when all 3 factors were combined (0.843). Serum sPD-1 is positively correlated with the severity of sepsis, and it is valuable for risk stratification of patients and prediction of 28-day mortality. Combining sPD-1 with PCT and the MEDS score improves the prognostic evaluation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: Risk Stratification of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) by the Primary Care Physician Using the NAFLD Fibrosis Score.

PubMed

Tapper, Elliot B; Hunink, M G Myriam; Afdhal, Nezam H; Lai, Michelle; Sengupta, Neil

2016-01-01

The complications of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) are dependent on the presence of advanced fibrosis. Given the high prevalence of NAFLD in the US, the optimal evaluation of NAFLD likely involves triage by a primary care physician (PCP) with advanced disease managed by gastroenterologists. We compared the cost-effectiveness of fibrosis risk-assessment strategies in a cohort of 10,000 simulated American patients with NAFLD performed in either PCP or referral clinics using a decision analytical microsimulation state-transition model. The strategies included use of vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), combination testing with NFS and VCTE, and liver biopsy (usual care by a specialist only). NFS and VCTE performance was obtained from a prospective cohort of 164 patients with NAFLD. Outcomes included cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) and correct classification of fibrosis. Risk-stratification by the PCP using the NFS alone costs $5,985 per QALY while usual care costs $7,229/QALY. In the microsimulation, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000, the NFS alone in PCP clinic was the most cost-effective strategy in 94.2% of samples, followed by combination NFS/VCTE in the PCP clinic (5.6%) and usual care in 0.2%. The NFS based strategies yield the best biopsy-correct classification ratios (3.5) while the NFS/VCTE and usual care strategies yield more correct-classifications of advanced fibrosis at the cost of 3 and 37 additional biopsies per classification. Risk-stratification of patients with NAFLD primary care clinic is a cost-effective strategy that should be formally explored in clinical practice.

Value of the Definition of Severe Familial Hypercholesterolemia for Stratification of Heterozygous Patients.

PubMed

Pérez-Calahorra, Sofia; Sánchez-Hernández, Rosa María; Plana, Núria; Marco-Benedi, Victoria; Pedro-Botet, Juan; Almagro, Fátima; Brea, Angel; Ascaso, Juan Francisco; Lahoz, Carlos; Civeira, Fernando

2017-03-01

Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is characterized by high low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol with co-dominant transmission and high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), although with high variability among subjects. Currently, CVD stratification tools for heterozygous FH (HeFH) are not available. A definition of severe HeFH has been recently proposed by the International Atherosclerosis Society (IAS), but it has not been validated. Our study aims to see clinical characteristics and prevalence of CVD in subjects defined as severe HeFH by IAS criteria. Probable or definite HeFH introduced in the Dyslipidemia Registry of Spanish Arteriosclerosis Society were analyzed by the IAS criteria. Univariate and multivariate analysis was used to assess the association of CVD with the IAS criteria. About 1,732 HeFH cases were analyzed. Severe HeFH had higher prevalence of familial history of CVD, personal history of tendon xanthomas, LDL cholesterol, and CVD than nonsevere HeFH. A total of 656 (77.1%) and 441 (50.1%) of men and women, respectively, fulfilled the IAS criteria of severe HeFH. In the univariate analysis, subjects defined as severe HeFH showed odds ratio 3.016 (95% CI 3.136 to 4.257, p <0.001) for CVD. However, when traditional risk factors were included in the multivariate analysis, only the presence of cholesterol >400 mg/dl had a statistically significant association with CVD odds ratio 8.76 (95% CI 3.90 to 19.69, p <0.001). In conclusion, the IAS definition of severe HeFH is not significantly associated with CVD when adjusted for classic risk factors. Risk stratification in HeFH is an important issue, but the proposed criteria do not seem to solve this problem. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Doppler Endoscopic Probe Monitoring of Blood Flow Improves Risk Stratification and Outcomes of Patients With Severe Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage.

PubMed

Jensen, Dennis M; Kovacs, Thomas O G; Ohning, Gordon V; Ghassemi, Kevin; Machicado, Gustavo A; Dulai, Gareth S; Sedarat, Alireza; Jutabha, Rome; Gornbein, Jeffrey

2017-05-01

For 4 decades, stigmata of recent hemorrhage in patients with nonvariceal lesions have been used for risk stratification and endoscopic hemostasis. The arterial blood flow that underlies the stigmata rarely is monitored, but can be used to determine risk for rebleeding. We performed a randomized controlled trial to determine whether Doppler endoscopic probe monitoring of blood flow improves risk stratification and outcomes in patients with severe nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage. In a single-blind study performed at 2 referral centers we assigned 148 patients with severe nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (125 with ulcers, 19 with Dieulafoy's lesions, and 4 with Mallory Weiss tears) to groups that underwent standard, visually guided endoscopic hemostasis (control, n = 76), or endoscopic hemostasis assisted by Doppler monitoring of blood flow under the stigmata (n = 72). The primary outcome was the rate of rebleeding after 30 days; secondary outcomes were complications, death, and need for transfusions, surgery, or angiography. There was a significant difference in the rates of lesion rebleeding within 30 days of endoscopic hemostasis in the control group (26.3%) vs the Doppler group (11.1%) (P = .0214). The odds ratio for rebleeding with Doppler monitoring was 0.35 (95% confidence interval, 0.143-0.8565) and the number needed to treat was 7. In a randomized controlled trial of patients with severe upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage from ulcers or other lesions, Doppler probe guided endoscopic hemostasis significantly reduced 30-day rates of rebleeding compared with standard, visually guided hemostasis. Guidelines for nonvariceal gastrointestinal bleeding should incorporate these results. ClinicalTrials.gov no: NCT00732212 (CLIN-013-07F). Copyright © 2017 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The new dyslipidemia guidelines: what is the debate?

PubMed

Anderson, Todd J; Mancini, G B John; Genest, Jacques; Grégoire, Jean; Lonn, Eva M; Hegele, Robert A

2015-05-01

Dyslipidemia is a major risk factor for the development of atherosclerotic disease. Therefore, lifestyle interventions and pharmacological approaches to decrease cholesterol are widely used in cardiovascular disease prevention. The introduction and widespread use of 3-hydroxy-3 methylglutaryl coenzyme A inhibitors (statins) for individuals at risk of atherosclerotic disease has been an important advance in cardiovascular care. There can be no doubt that better control of dyslipidemia, even in subjects whose low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level is not particularly high, has reduced overall event rates. On a background of lifestyle interventions, statins are routinely used to decrease risk along with aspirin and interventions to control hypertension and diabetes. More than other risk factors, the approach to the identification and treatment of dyslipidemia has been heterogeneous and widely debated. The recent release of the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association dyslipidemia guidelines has reignited the controversy over the best approach for risk stratification and treatment. In this article we review the importance of statin therapy for global cardiovascular risk reduction, compare the Canadian Cardiovascular Society dyslipidemia guidelines with other standards, and discuss the points of debate. Despite the seeming variety of recommendations, their common link is a systematic approach to risk stratification and treatment, which will continue to benefit our patients at risk. Copyright © 2015 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Public health implications from COGS and potential for risk stratification and screening.

PubMed

Burton, Hilary; Chowdhury, Susmita; Dent, Tom; Hall, Alison; Pashayan, Nora; Pharoah, Paul

2013-04-01

The PHG Foundation led a multidisciplinary program, which used results from COGS research identifying genetic variants associated with breast, ovarian and prostate cancers to model risk-stratified prevention for breast and prostate cancers. Implementing such strategies would require attention to the use and storage of genetic information, the development of risk assessment tools, new protocols for consent and programs of professional education and public engagement.

A Nationwide Epidemiologic Modeling Study of LD: Risk, Protection, and Unintended Impact

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McDermott, Paul A.; Goldberg, Michelle M.; Watkins, Marley W.; Stanley, Jeanne L.; Glutting, Joseph J.

2006-01-01

Through multiple logistic regression modeling, this article explores the relative importance of risk and protective factors associated with learning disabilities (LD). A representative national sample of 6- to 17-year-old students (N = 1,268) was drawn by random stratification and classified by the presence versus absence of LD in reading,…

Stratification of breast cancer risk in women with atypia: a Mayo cohort study.

PubMed

Degnim, Amy C; Visscher, Daniel W; Berman, Hal K; Frost, Marlene H; Sellers, Thomas A; Vierkant, Robert A; Maloney, Shaun D; Pankratz, V Shane; de Groen, Piet C; Lingle, Wilma L; Ghosh, Karthik; Penheiter, Lois; Tlsty, Thea; Melton, L Joseph; Reynolds, Carol A; Hartmann, Lynn C

2007-07-01

Atypical hyperplasia is a well-recognized risk factor for breast cancer, conveying an approximately four-fold increased risk. Data regarding long-term absolute risk and factors for risk stratification are needed. Women with atypical hyperplasia in the Mayo Benign Breast Disease Cohort were identified through pathology review. Subsequent breast cancers were identified via medical records and a questionnaire. Relative risks (RRs) were estimated using standardized incidence ratios, comparing the observed number of breast cancers with those expected based on Iowa Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data. Age, histologic factors, and family history were evaluated as risk modifiers. Plots of cumulative breast cancer incidence provided estimates of risk over time. With mean follow-up of 13.7 years, 66 breast cancers (19.9%) occurred among 331 women with atypia. RR of breast cancer with atypia was 3.88 (95% CI, 3.00 to 4.94). Marked elevations in risk were seen with multifocal atypia (eg, three or more foci with calcifications [RR, 10.35; 95% CI, 6.13 to 16.4]). RR was higher for younger women (< 45; RR, 6.76; 95% CI, 3.24 to 12.4). Risk was similar for atypical ductal and atypical lobular hyperplasia, and family history added no significant risk. Breast cancer risk remained elevated over 20 years, and the cumulative incidence approached 35% at 30 years. Among women with atypical hyperplasia, multiple foci of atypia and the presence of histologic calcifications may indicate "very high risk" status (> 50% risk at 20 years). A positive family history does not further increase risk in women with atypia.

Understanding the Effect of Stratification on Vertical and Temporal Heterogenieties of Cyanobacteria Blooms in Lakes Using a Long Term in-situ Monitoring Station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilkinson, A.; Guala, M.; Hondzo, M.

2017-12-01

Harmful Algal Blooms (HAB) are made up of potentially toxic freshwater microorganisms called cyanobacteria, because of this they are a ecological and public health hazard. The occurrences of toxic HAB are unpredictable and highly spatially and temporary variable in freshwater ecosystems. To study the abiotic drivers for toxic HAB, a floating research station has been deployed in a hyper-eutrophic lake in Madison Lake, Minnesota, from June-October 2016. This research station provides full depth water quality (hourly) and meteorological monitoring (5 minutes). Water quality monitoring is performed by an autonomously traversed water quality sonde that provides chemical, physical and biological measurements; including phycocyanin, a photosynthetic pigment distinct to cyanobacteria. A bloom of cyanobacteria recorded in the epiliminion in mid-July was driven by prolonged strong thermal stratification in the water column, high surface water temperatures and high phosphate concentrations in the epiliminion. The high biovolume (BV) persisted until late September and was sustained below the surface after stratification weakened, when the thermocline did not confine cyanobacteria-rich layers any more, and cyanobacteria vertical heterogeneities decayed in the water column. High correlations among BV stratification, surface water temperature, and stratification stability informed the development of a quantitative relationship to determine how BV heterogeneities vary with thermal structure in the water column. The BV heterogeneity decreased with thermal stratification stability and surface water temperature, and the dynamic lake stability described by the Lake Number. Finally the location of maximum BV accumulation showed diurnal patterns ie. BV peaks were observed at 1 m depth during the day and deeper layers during the night, which followed patterns in light penetration and thermocline depth. These findings capture cyanobacteria vertical and temporal heterogeneities on a on full depth, seasonal scale and quantify BV distribution throughout the water column under different stratification conditions, which can be important for mitigating risks of contamination of drinking water and recreational exposure.

A validation study of the 2003 American College of Cardiology/European Society of Cardiology and 2011 American College of Cardiology Foundation/American Heart Association risk stratification and treatment algorithms for sudden cardiac death in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

O'Mahony, Constantinos; Tome-Esteban, Maite; Lambiase, Pier D; Pantazis, Antonios; Dickie, Shaughan; McKenna, William J; Elliott, Perry M

2013-04-01

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is a common mode of death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), but identification of patients who are at a high risk of SCD is challenging as current risk stratification guidelines have never been formally validated. The objective of this study was to assess the power of the 2003 American College of Cardiology (ACC)/European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and 2011 ACC Foundation (ACCF)/American Heart Association (AHA) SCD risk stratification algorithms to distinguish high risk patients who might be eligible for an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) from low risk individuals. We studied 1606 consecutively evaluated HCM patients in an observational, retrospective cohort study. Five risk factors (RF) for SCD were assessed: non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, severe left ventricular hypertrophy, family history of SCD, unexplained syncope and abnormal blood pressure response to exercise. During a follow-up period of 11 712 patient years (median 6.6 years), SCD/appropriate ICD shock occurred in 20 (3%) of 660 patients without RF (annual rate 0.45%), 31 (4.8%) of 636 patients with 1 RF (annual rate 0.65%), 27 (10.8%) of 249 patients with 2 RF (annual rate 1.3%), 7 (13.7%) of 51 patients with 3 RF (annual rate 1.9%) and 4 (40%) of 10 patients with ≥4 RF (annual rate 5.0%). The risk of SCD increased with multiple RF (2 RF: HR 2.87, p≤0.001; 3 RF: HR 4.32, p=0.001; ≥4 RF: HR 11.37, p<0.0001), but not with a single RF (HR 1.43 p=0.21). The area under time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (representing the probability of correctly identifying a patient at risk of SCD on the basis of RF profile) was 0.63 at 1 year and 0.64 at 5 years for the 2003 ACC/ESC algorithm and 0.61 at 1 year and 0.63 at 5 years for the 2011 ACCF/AHA algorithm. The risk of SCD increases with the aggregation of RF. The 2003 ACC/ESC and 2011 ACCF/AHA guidelines distinguish high from low risk individuals with limited power.

Non-invasive prenatal diagnosis for cystic fibrosis: detection of paternal mutations, exploration of patient preferences and cost analysis.

PubMed

Hill, Melissa; Twiss, Philip; Verhoef, Talitha I; Drury, Suzanne; McKay, Fiona; Mason, Sarah; Jenkins, Lucy; Morris, Stephen; Chitty, Lyn S

2015-10-01

We aim to develop non-invasive prenatal diagnosis (NIPD) for cystic fibrosis (CF) and determine costs and implications for implementation. A next-generation sequencing assay was developed to detect ten common CF mutations for exclusion of the paternal mutation in maternal plasma. Using uptake data from a study exploring views on NIPD for CF, total test-related costs were estimated for the current care pathway and compared with those incorporating NIPD. The assay reliably predicted mutation status in all control and maternal plasma samples. Of carrier or affected adults with CF (n = 142) surveyed, only 43.5% reported willingness to have invasive testing for CF with 94.4% saying they would have NIPD. Using these potential uptake data, the incremental costs of NIPD over invasive testing per 100 pregnancies at risk of CF are £9025 for paternal mutation exclusion, and £26,510 for direct diagnosis. We have developed NIPD for risk stratification in around a third of CF families. There are economic implications due to potential increased test demand to inform postnatal management rather than to inform decisions around termination of an affected pregnancy. © 2015 The Authors. Prenatal Diagnosis published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Non-invasive prenatal diagnosis for cystic fibrosis: detection of paternal mutations, exploration of patient preferences and cost analysis

PubMed Central

Hill, Melissa; Twiss, Philip; Verhoef, Talitha I; Drury, Suzanne; McKay, Fiona; Mason, Sarah; Jenkins, Lucy; Morris, Stephen; Chitty, Lyn S

2015-01-01

Abstract Objectives We aim to develop non-invasive prenatal diagnosis (NIPD) for cystic fibrosis (CF) and determine costs and implications for implementation. Methods A next-generation sequencing assay was developed to detect ten common CF mutations for exclusion of the paternal mutation in maternal plasma. Using uptake data from a study exploring views on NIPD for CF, total test-related costs were estimated for the current care pathway and compared with those incorporating NIPD. Results The assay reliably predicted mutation status in all control and maternal plasma samples. Of carrier or affected adults with CF (n = 142) surveyed, only 43.5% reported willingness to have invasive testing for CF with 94.4% saying they would have NIPD. Using these potential uptake data, the incremental costs of NIPD over invasive testing per 100 pregnancies at risk of CF are £9025 for paternal mutation exclusion, and £26 510 for direct diagnosis. Conclusions We have developed NIPD for risk stratification in around a third of CF families. There are economic implications due to potential increased test demand to inform postnatal management rather than to inform decisions around termination of an affected pregnancy. © 2015 The Authors. Prenatal Diagnosis published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:25708280

Recruitment of Hexagenia mayfly nymphs in western Lake Erie linked to environmental variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bridgeman, Thomas B.; Schloesser, Don W.; Krause, Ann E.

2006-01-01

After a 40-year absence caused by pollution and eutrophication, burrowing mayflies (Hexagenia spp.) recolonized western Lake Erie in the mid 1990s as water quality improved. Mayflies are an important food resource for the economically valuable yellow perch fishery and are considered to be major indicator species of the ecological condition of the lake. Since their reappearance, however, mayfly populations have suffered occasional unexplained recruitment failures. In 2002, a failure of fall recruitment followed an unusually warm summer in which western Lake Erie became temporarily stratified, resulting in low dissolved oxygen levels near the lake floor. In the present study, we examined a possible link between Hexagenia recruitment and periods of intermittent stratification for the years 1997-2002. A simple model was developed using surface temperature, wind speed, and water column data from 2003 to predict stratification. The model was then used to detect episodes of stratification in past years for which water column data are unavailable. Low or undetectable mayfly recruitment occurred in 1997 and 2002, years in which there was frequent or extended stratification between June and September. Highest mayfly reproduction in 2000 corresponded to the fewest stratified periods. These results suggest that even relatively brief periods of stratification can result in loss of larval mayfly recruitment, probably through the effects of hypoxia. A trend toward increasing frequency of hot summers in the Great Lakes region could result in recurrent loss of mayfly larvae in western Lake Erie and other shallow areas in the Great Lakes.

Management of acute paracetamol (acetaminophen) toxicity: a standardised proforma improves risk assessment and overall risk stratification by emergency medicine doctors.

PubMed

McQuade, David J; Aknuri, Srikanth; Dargan, Paul I; Wood, David M

2012-12-01

Paracetamol (acetaminophen) poisoning is the most common toxicological presentation in the UK. Doctors managing patients with paracetamol poisoning need to assess the risk of their patient developing hepatotoxicity before determining appropriate treatment. Patients deemed to be at 'high risk' of hepatotoxicity have lower treatment thresholds than those deemed to be at 'normal risk'. Errors in this process can lead to harmful or potentially fatal under or over treatment. To determine how well treating doctors assess risk factor status and whether a standardised proforma is useful in the risk stratification process. Retrospective 12-month case note review of all patients presenting with paracetamol poisoning to our large inner-city emergency department. Data were collected on the documentation of risk factors, the presence of a local hospital proforma and treatment outcomes. 249 presentations were analysed and only 59 (23.7%) had full documentation of all the risk factors required to make a complete risk assessment. 56 of the 59 (94.9%) had the local hospital proforma included in the notes; the remaining 3 (5.1%) had full documentation of risk factors despite the absence of a proforma. A local hospital proforma was more likely to be included in the emergency department notes in those with 'adequate documentation' (78 out of 120 (65%)) than for those with 'inadequate documentation' (16 out of 129 (12.4%)); X(2), p<0.001. Despite a low overall uptake of the proforma, use of a standardised proforma significantly increased the likelihood of documentation of the risk factors which increase risk for hepatotoxicity following paracetamol poisoning.

TCGA's Testicular Germ Cell Tumor Study - TCGA

Cancer.gov

TCGA network researchers identify molecular characteristics that classify testicular germ cell tumor types, including a separate subset of seminomas defined by KIT mutations. This provides a set of candidate biomarkers for risk stratification and potential therapeutic targeting.

The role of copeptin as a diagnostic and prognostic biomarker for risk stratification in the emergency department

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

The hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis is activated in response to stress. One of the activated hypothalamic hormones is arginine vasopressin, a hormone involved in hemodynamics and osmoregulation. Copeptin, the C-terminal part of the arginine vasopressin precursor peptide, is a sensitive and stable surrogate marker for arginine vasopressin release. Measurement of copeptin levels has been shown to be useful in a variety of clinical scenarios, particularly as a prognostic marker in patients with acute diseases such as lower respiratory tract infection, heart disease and stroke. The measurement of copeptin levels may provide crucial information for risk stratification in a variety of clinical situations. As such, the emergency department appears to be the ideal setting for its potential use. This review summarizes the recent progress towards determining the prognostic and diagnostic value of copeptin in the emergency department. PMID:22264220

Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy: Clinical Update.

PubMed

Geske, Jeffrey B; Ommen, Steve R; Gersh, Bernard J

2018-05-01

Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is the most common heritable cardiomyopathy, manifesting as left ventricular hypertrophy in the absence of a secondary cause. The genetic underpinnings of HCM arise largely from mutations of sarcomeric proteins; however, the specific underlying mutation often remains undetermined. Patient presentation is phenotypically diverse, ranging from asymptomatic to heart failure or sudden cardiac death. Left ventricular hypertrophy and abnormal ventricular configuration result in dynamic left ventricular outflow obstruction in most patients. The goal of therapeutic interventions is largely to reduce dynamic obstruction, with treatment modalities spanning lifestyle modifications, pharmacotherapies, and septal reduction therapies. A small subset of patients with HCM will experience sudden cardiac death, and risk stratification remains a clinical challenge. This paper presents a clinical update for diagnosis, family screening, clinical imaging, risk stratification, and management of symptoms in patients with HCM. Copyright © 2018 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The assessment and management of chest pain in primary care: A focus on acute coronary syndrome

PubMed

Thomsett, Richard; Cullen, Louise

2018-05-01

Chest pain is a common presentation and diagnosis can be challenging. There are many causes for chest pain, including life-threatening conditions such as acute coronary syndrome (ACS), which can prove difficult to diagnose. This article focuses on diagnosis and early management of patients with possible ACS. Key differentials and essential primary care investigations and management are outlined. Hospital-based risk stratification and management are described, providing an outline of what patients can expect if referred to hospital. In primary care, an electrocardiogram (ECG) is the only investigation required for most patients while referral is made to hospital. Troponin testing should rarely be requested to investigate patients with suspected ACS in the primary care setting. Initial treatment may include aspirin, glyceryl trinitrate and oxygen if required. If ACS is suspected as the cause of the symptoms, urgent referral for definitive risk stratification is required.

Risk stratification of childhood cancer survivors necessary for evidence-based clinical long-term follow-up

PubMed Central

Frobisher, Clare; Glaser, Adam; Levitt, Gill A; Cutter, David J; Winter, David L; Lancashire, Emma R; Oeffinger, Kevin C; Guha, Joyeeta; Kelly, Julie; Reulen, Raoul C; Hawkins, Michael M

2017-01-01

Background: Reorganisation of clinical follow-up care in England was proposed by the National Cancer Survivorship Initiative (NCSI), based on cancer type and treatment, ranging from Level 1 (supported self-management) to Level 3 (consultant-led care). The objective of this study was to provide an investigation of the risks of serious adverse health-outcomes associated with NCSI Levels of clinical care using a large population-based cohort of childhood cancer survivors. Methods: The British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (BCCSS) was used to investigate risks of specific causes of death, subsequent primary neoplasms (SPNs) and non-fatal non-neoplastic outcomes by NCSI Level. Results: Cumulative (excess) risks of specified adverse outcomes by 45 years from diagnosis among non-leukaemic survivors assigned to NCSI Levels 1, 2 and 3 were for: SPNs—5% (two-fold expected), 14% (four-fold expected) and 21% (eight-fold expected); non-neoplastic death—2% (two-fold expected), 4% (three-fold expected) and 8% (seven-fold expected); non-fatal non-neoplastic condition—14%, 27% and 40%, respectively. Consequently overall cumulative risks of any adverse health outcome were 21%, 45% and 69%, respectively. Conclusions: Despite its simplicity the risk stratification tool provides clear and strong discrimination between survivors assigned to different NCSI Levels in terms of long-term cumulative and excess risks of serious adverse outcomes. PMID:29065109

Cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: Current state of the art.

PubMed

Kamal, Muhammad Umar; Riaz, Irbaz Bin; Janardhanan, Rajesh

2016-01-01

Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is the most common genetic cardiomyopathy with a prevalence of 1:500 (0.2%) in the general population. Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the most feared presentation of HCM. Therefore, it is essential to identify individuals at high risk in order to prevent SCD. The absence of conventional risk factors does not nullify the risk of HCM related SCD. Although echocardiography is currently the most widely used imaging modality, cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) allows detailed characterization of the HCM phenotype, which makes it possible to differentiate HCM from other causes of left ventricular hypertrophy. CMR has the potential to further refine risk stratification. Late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) on CMR is a high-risk feature and there is emerging data to suggest that the presence of LGE should be employed as a marker for major adverse outcomes such as SCD, arrhythmias, systolic and diastolic heart failure. Hence, LGE on CMR may be considered an additional risk factor for SCD in HCM patients and should be incorporated in decision-making for implant-able cardioverter defibrillator implantation to aid primary prevention. Novel markers such as the extent of myocardial fibrosis on CMR must be accounted for comprehensive risk stratifica-tion of HCM patients. The purpose of this review is to discuss the current status and emerging role of CMR in HCM.

Risk stratification following acute myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Singh, Mandeep

2007-07-01

This article reviews the current risk assessment models available for patients presenting with myocardial infarction (MI). These practical tools enhance the health care provider's ability to rapidly and accurately assess patient risk from the event or revascularization therapy, and are of paramount importance in managing patients presenting with MI. This article highlights the models used for ST-elevation MI (STEMI) and non-ST elevation MI (NSTEMI) and provides an additional description of models used to assess risks after primary angioplasty (ie, angioplasty performed for STEMI).

Analysis of the individual risk of altitude decompression sickness under repeated exposures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, K. Vasantha; Horrigan, David J.; Waligora, James M.; Gilbert, John H.

1991-01-01

In a case-control study, researchers examined the risk of decompression sickness (DCS) in individual subjects with higher number of exposures. Of the 126 subjects, 42 showed one or more episodes of DCS. Examination of the exposure-DCS relationship by odds ratio showed a linear relationship. Stratification analysis showed that sex, tissue ratio, and the presence of Doppler microbubbles were cofounders of this risk. A higher number of exposures increased the risk of DCS in this analysis.

Detecting declines in the abundance of a bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) population: Understanding the accuracy, precision, and costs of our efforts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Al-Chokhachy, R.; Budy, P.; Conner, M.

2009-01-01

Using empirical field data for bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), we evaluated the trade-off between power and sampling effort-cost using Monte Carlo simulations of commonly collected mark-recapture-resight and count data, and we estimated the power to detect changes in abundance across different time intervals. We also evaluated the effects of monitoring different components of a population and stratification methods on the precision of each method. Our results illustrate substantial variability in the relative precision, cost, and information gained from each approach. While grouping estimates by age or stage class substantially increased the precision of estimates, spatial stratification of sampling units resulted in limited increases in precision. Although mark-resight methods allowed for estimates of abundance versus indices of abundance, our results suggest snorkel surveys may be a more affordable monitoring approach across large spatial scales. Detecting a 25% decline in abundance after 5 years was not possible, regardless of technique (power = 0.80), without high sampling effort (48% of study site). Detecting a 25% decline was possible after 15 years, but still required high sampling efforts. Our results suggest detecting moderate changes in abundance of freshwater salmonids requires considerable resource and temporal commitments and highlight the difficulties of using abundance measures for monitoring bull trout populations.

[Sports medical aspects in cardiac risk stratification--heart rate variability and exercise capacity].

PubMed

Banzer, W; Lucki, K; Bürklein, M; Rosenhagen, A; Vogt, L

2006-12-01

The present study investigates the association of the predicted CHD-risk (PROCAM) with the individual endurance capacity and heart rate variability (HRV) in a population-based sample of sedentary elderly. After stratification, in 57 men (48.1+/-9.5 yrs.) with an overall PROCAM-risk <10% (28.7+/-10.9 points) and 22 men (54.5+/-7.7 yrs.) with a coronary 10-year risk > or =10% (50.8+/-5.6 points) cycle ergometries and short-term HRV analysis of time (RRMEAN, SDNN, RMSSD) and frequency domain parameters (LF, HF, TP, LF/HF) were conducted. Additionally the autonomic stress index (SI) was calculated. Nonparametric tests were used for statistical correlation analysis (Spearman rho) and group comparisons (Mann-Whitney). For endurance capacity [W/kg] (r=-0.469, p<0.001), SDNN (r=-0.302, p<0.05), RMSSD (r= -0.311, p<0.05), LF (r=-0.325, p<0.05), HF (r= -0.311, p<0.05) and TP (r= -0.307, p<0.05) negative monotone correlations with the coronary score-risk were determined. Significant positive correlations were calculated for SI (r=0.476, p<0.001). Except for RRMEAN and LF/HF significant group differences (p<0.05) were computed for SDNN (30.0+/-20.0 vs 20.0+/-10.0 ms), RMSSD (22.2+/-18.3 vs 18.0+/-8.7 ms), LF (90.9+/-241.5 vs 41.35+/-81.1 ms(2)), HF (43.0+/-105.1 vs 18.0+/-27.0 ms(2)) and TP (189.0+/-457.1 vs 100.0+/-157.6 ms(2)). Significant differences (p<0.01) were evaluated for exercise capacity (2.4+/-0.5 vs 1.8+/-0.3 W/kg) and SI (90+/-183 vs 322+/-291). The results underline the predictive value of HRV analysis in risk stratification and outline the interrelation of a decreased exercise capacity and autonomic function with a raised individual 10-year cardiac risk. As an independent parameter of the vegetative regulatory state the stress index may contribute to an increased practical relevance of short-time HRV analysis.

Biomarkers from distinct biological pathways improve early risk stratification in medical emergency patients: the multinational, prospective, observational TRIAGE study.

PubMed

Schuetz, Philipp; Hausfater, Pierre; Amin, Devendra; Amin, Adina; Haubitz, Sebastian; Faessler, Lukas; Kutz, Alexander; Conca, Antoinette; Reutlinger, Barbara; Canavaggio, Pauline; Sauvin, Gabrielle; Bernard, Maguy; Huber, Andreas; Mueller, Beat

2015-10-29

Early risk stratification in the emergency department (ED) is vital to reduce time to effective treatment in high-risk patients and to improve patient flow. Yet, there is a lack of investigations evaluating the incremental usefulness of multiple biomarkers measured upon admission from distinct biological pathways for predicting fatal outcome and high initial treatment urgency in unselected ED patients in a multicenter and multinational setting. We included consecutive, adult, medical patients seeking ED care into this observational, cohort study in Switzerland, France and the USA. We recorded initial clinical parameters and batch-measured prognostic biomarkers of inflammation (pro-adrenomedullin [ProADM]), stress (copeptin) and infection (procalcitonin). During a 30-day follow-up, 331 of 7132 (4.6 %) participants reached the primary endpoint of death within 30 days. In logistic regression models adjusted for conventional risk factors available at ED admission, all three biomarkers strongly predicted the risk of death (AUC 0.83, 0.78 and 0.75), ICU admission (AUC 0.67, 0.69 and 0.62) and high initial triage priority (0.67, 0.66 and 0.58). For the prediction of death, ProADM significantly improved regression models including (a) clinical information available at ED admission (AUC increase from 0.79 to 0.84), (b) full clinical information at ED discharge (AUC increase from 0.85 to 0.88), and (c) triage information (AUC increase from 0.67 to 0.83) (p <0.01 for each comparison). Similarly, ProADM also improved clinical models for prediction of ICU admission and high initial treatment urgency. Results were robust in regard to predefined patient subgroups by center, main diagnosis, presenting symptoms, age and gender. Combination of clinical information with results of blood biomarkers measured upon ED admission allows early and more adequate risk stratification in individual unselected medical ED patients. A randomized trial is needed to answer the question whether biomarker-guided initial patient triage reduces time to initial treatment of high-risk patients in the ED and thereby improves patient flow and clinical outcomes. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01768494 . Registered January 9, 2013.

PCA-based polling strategy in machine learning framework for coronary artery disease risk assessment in intravascular ultrasound: A link between carotid and coronary grayscale plaque morphology.

PubMed

Araki, Tadashi; Ikeda, Nobutaka; Shukla, Devarshi; Jain, Pankaj K; Londhe, Narendra D; Shrivastava, Vimal K; Banchhor, Sumit K; Saba, Luca; Nicolaides, Andrew; Shafique, Shoaib; Laird, John R; Suri, Jasjit S

2016-05-01

Percutaneous coronary interventional procedures need advance planning prior to stenting or an endarterectomy. Cardiologists use intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) for screening, risk assessment and stratification of coronary artery disease (CAD). We hypothesize that plaque components are vulnerable to rupture due to plaque progression. Currently, there are no standard grayscale IVUS tools for risk assessment of plaque rupture. This paper presents a novel strategy for risk stratification based on plaque morphology embedded with principal component analysis (PCA) for plaque feature dimensionality reduction and dominant feature selection technique. The risk assessment utilizes 56 grayscale coronary features in a machine learning framework while linking information from carotid and coronary plaque burdens due to their common genetic makeup. This system consists of a machine learning paradigm which uses a support vector machine (SVM) combined with PCA for optimal and dominant coronary artery morphological feature extraction. Carotid artery proven intima-media thickness (cIMT) biomarker is adapted as a gold standard during the training phase of the machine learning system. For the performance evaluation, K-fold cross validation protocol is adapted with 20 trials per fold. For choosing the dominant features out of the 56 grayscale features, a polling strategy of PCA is adapted where the original value of the features is unaltered. Different protocols are designed for establishing the stability and reliability criteria of the coronary risk assessment system (cRAS). Using the PCA-based machine learning paradigm and cross-validation protocol, a classification accuracy of 98.43% (AUC 0.98) with K=10 folds using an SVM radial basis function (RBF) kernel was achieved. A reliability index of 97.32% and machine learning stability criteria of 5% were met for the cRAS. This is the first Computer aided design (CADx) system of its kind that is able to demonstrate the ability of coronary risk assessment and stratification while demonstrating a successful design of the machine learning system based on our assumptions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

MicroRNA signatures of colonic polyps on screening and histology

PubMed Central

Tsikitis, Vassiliki L.; Potter, Amiee; Mori, Motomi; Buckmeier, Julie A.; Preece, Christina R.; Harrington, Christina A.; Bartley, Angela N.; Bhattacharyya, Achyut K.; Hamilton, Stanley R.; Lance, M. Peter; Thompson, Patricia A.

2016-01-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) and adenoma adjacent to cancer exhibit distinct microRNA (miR) alterations in an apparent mucosa-to-adenocarcinoma sequence. The pattern of microRNAs in screen-detected polyps in relation to histologic features and cancer risk has not been investigated. miR expression analysis was performed on normal mucosa (NM), hyperplastic polyps (HPs), tubular adenomas (TAs), tubulovillous adenomas or high-grade dysplasia (TVHGs), and serrated polyps (sessile serrated adenoma/polyps, SSA/Ps, and traditional serrated adenomas, TSAs) in biopsy specimens from 109 patients undergoing screening/surveillance colonoscopy. Generalized linear models were used to identify differentially expressed miRs by histologic type and logistic regression to identify miR predictors of histopathology. False discovery rate (FDR) was used to control for multiple comparisons. We identified 99 miRs differing in at least one of five histopathologic groups (FDR ≤ 0.05). In a comparison of HPNM vs. TVHG, the top most up- and down-regulated miRs in HPNM included miR-145, -143, -107, -194, and -26a (upregulated), and miR-663, -1268, -320b, -1275, and -320b (down-regulated) (FDR P-value < 0.05). miR-145 and -619 showed high accuracy to discriminate low- from high-risk polyps without serrated histology (TVHG vs. HPNM+TA) (CI= 95.6%), whereas miRs-124, -143, and -30a showed high accuracy of separating high-risk polyps (TVHG+TSA) from low-risk polyps (HPNM+TA+SSA/P) (CI=96.0%). For TSAs, miRs-125b and -199a were uniquely downregulated relative to HPNMs, and miR-335, -222 and -214 discriminated between non-serrated and serrated histology. Our data support the presence of CRC-associated miR alterations in screen-detected adenomas that may be useful for risk stratification for surveillance interval planning. PMID:27658891

Risk Stratification of Stress Fractures and Prediction of Return to Duty

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

enrollment. In study Task 1 we aim to determine the sex- and race -ethnicity-specific bone traits that may contribute to stress fracture risk in military...SUBJECT TERMS bone microarchitecture, HRpQCT, race , gender, sex, bone mineral density, vBMD, bone geometry, stress fracture 16. SECURITY...sectional study aimed at identifying the bone properties that may be related to the well-known sex and race /ethnicity differences in risk for stress

Risk stratification of gallbladder polyps larger than 10 mm using high-resolution ultrasonography and texture analysis.

PubMed

Choi, Tae Won; Kim, Jung Hoon; Park, Sang Joon; Ahn, Su Joa; Joo, Ijin; Han, Joon Koo

2018-01-01

To assess important features for risk stratification of gallbladder (GB) polyps >10 mm using high-resolution ultrasonography (HRUS) and texture analysis. We included 136 patients with GB polyps (>10 mm) who underwent both HRUS and cholecystectomy (non-neoplastic, n = 58; adenomatous, n = 32; and carcinoma, n = 46). Two radiologists retrospectively assessed HRUS findings and texture analysis. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify significant predictors for neoplastic polyps and carcinomas. Single polyp (OR, 3.680-3.856) and larger size (OR, 1.450-1.477) were independently associated with neoplastic polyps (p < 0.05). In a single or polyp >14 mm, sensitivity for differentiating neoplastic from non-neoplastic polyps was 92.3%. To differentiate carcinoma from adenoma, sessile shape (OR, 9.485-41.257), larger size (OR, 1.267-1.303), higher skewness (OR, 6.382) and lower grey-level co-occurrence matrices (GLCM) contrast (OR, 0.963) were significant predictors (p < 0.05). In a polyp >22 mm or sessile, sensitivity for differentiating carcinomas from adenomas was 93.5-95.7%. If a polyp demonstrated at least one HRUS finding and at least one texture feature, the specificity for diagnosing carcinoma was increased to 90.6-93.8%. In a GB polyp >10 mm, single and diameter >14 mm were useful for predicting neoplastic polyps. In neoplastic polyps, sessile shape, diameter >22 mm, higher skewness and lower GLCM contrast were useful for predicting carcinoma. • Risk of neoplastic polyp is low in <14 mm and multiple polyps • A sessile polyp or >22 mm has increased risk for GB carcinomas • Higher skewness and lower GLCM contrast are predictors of GB carcinoma • HRUS is useful for risk stratification of GB polyps >1 cm.

Impaired Right, Left, or Biventricular Function and Resting Oxygen Saturation Are Associated With Mortality in Eisenmenger Syndrome: A Clinical and Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance Study.

PubMed

Jensen, Annette S; Broberg, Craig S; Rydman, Riikka; Diller, Gerhard-Paul; Li, Wei; Dimopoulos, Konstantinos; Wort, Stephen J; Pennell, Dudley J; Gatzoulis, Michael A; Babu-Narayan, Sonya V

2015-12-01

Patients with Eisenmenger syndrome (ES) have better survival, despite similar pulmonary vascular pathology, compared with other patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) is useful for risk stratification in idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension, whereas it has not been evaluated in ES. We studied CMR together with other noninvasive measurements in ES to evaluate its potential role as a noninvasive risk stratification test. Between 2003 and 2005, 48 patients with ES, all with a post-tricuspid shunt, were enrolled in a prospective, longitudinal, single-center study. All patients underwent a standardized baseline assessment with CMR, blood test, echocardiography, and 6-minute walk test and were followed up for mortality until the end of December 2013. Twelve patients (25%) died during follow-up, mostly from heart failure (50%). Impaired ventricular function (right or left ventricular ejection fraction) was associated with increased risk of mortality (lowest quartile: right ventricular ejection fraction, <40%; hazard ratio, 4.4 [95% confidence interval, 1.4-13.5]; P=0.01 and left ventricular ejection fraction, <50%; hazard ratio, 6.6 [95% confidence interval, 2.1-20.8]; P=0.001). Biventricular impairment (lowest quartile left ventricular ejection fraction, <50% and right ventricular ejection fraction, <40%) conveyed an even higher risk of mortality (hazard ratio, 8.0 [95% confidence interval, 2.5-25.1]; P=0.0004). No other CMR or noninvasive measurement besides resting oxygen saturation (hazard ratio, 0.90 [0.83-0.97]/%; P=0.007) was associated with mortality. Impaired right, left, or biventricular systolic function derived from baseline CMR and resting oxygen saturation are associated with mortality in adult patients with ES. CMR is a useful noninvasive tool, which may be incorporated in the risk stratification assessment of ES during lifelong follow-up. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Current indications for transplantation: stratification of severe heart failure and shared decision-making

PubMed Central

Vucicevic, Darko; Honoris, Lily; Raia, Federica

2018-01-01

Heart failure (HF) is a complex clinical syndrome that results from structural or functional cardiovascular disorders causing a mismatch between demand and supply of oxygenated blood and consecutive failure of the body’s organs. For those patients with stage D HF, advanced therapies, such as mechanical circulatory support (MCS) or heart transplantation (HTx), are potentially life-saving options. The role of risk stratification of patients with stage D HF in a value-based healthcare framework is to predict which subset might benefit from advanced HF (AdHF) therapies, to improve outcomes related to the individual patient including mortality, morbidity and patient experience as well as to optimize health care delivery system outcomes such as cost-effectiveness. Risk stratification and subsequent outcome prediction as well as therapeutic recommendation-making need to be based on the comparative survival benefit rationale. A robust model needs to (I) have the power to discriminate (i.e., to correctly risk stratify patients); (II) calibrate (i.e., to show agreement between the predicted and observed risk); (III) to be applicable to the general population; and (IV) provide good external validation. The Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) and the Heart Failure Survival Score (HFSS) are two of the most widely utilized scores. However, outcomes for patients with HF are highly variable which make clinical predictions challenging. Despite our clinical expertise and current prediction tools, the best short- and long-term survival for the individual patient, particularly the sickest patient, is not easy to identify because among the most severely ill, elderly and frail patients, most preoperative prediction tools have the tendency to be imprecise in estimating risk. They should be used as a guide in a clinical encounter grounded in a culture of shared decision-making, with the expert healthcare professional team as consultants and the patient as an empowered decision-maker in a trustful safe therapeutic relationship. PMID:29492383

Current indications for transplantation: stratification of severe heart failure and shared decision-making.

PubMed

Vucicevic, Darko; Honoris, Lily; Raia, Federica; Deng, Mario

2018-01-01

Heart failure (HF) is a complex clinical syndrome that results from structural or functional cardiovascular disorders causing a mismatch between demand and supply of oxygenated blood and consecutive failure of the body's organs. For those patients with stage D HF, advanced therapies, such as mechanical circulatory support (MCS) or heart transplantation (HTx), are potentially life-saving options. The role of risk stratification of patients with stage D HF in a value-based healthcare framework is to predict which subset might benefit from advanced HF (AdHF) therapies, to improve outcomes related to the individual patient including mortality, morbidity and patient experience as well as to optimize health care delivery system outcomes such as cost-effectiveness. Risk stratification and subsequent outcome prediction as well as therapeutic recommendation-making need to be based on the comparative survival benefit rationale. A robust model needs to (I) have the power to discriminate (i.e., to correctly risk stratify patients); (II) calibrate (i.e., to show agreement between the predicted and observed risk); (III) to be applicable to the general population; and (IV) provide good external validation. The Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) and the Heart Failure Survival Score (HFSS) are two of the most widely utilized scores. However, outcomes for patients with HF are highly variable which make clinical predictions challenging. Despite our clinical expertise and current prediction tools, the best short- and long-term survival for the individual patient, particularly the sickest patient, is not easy to identify because among the most severely ill, elderly and frail patients, most preoperative prediction tools have the tendency to be imprecise in estimating risk. They should be used as a guide in a clinical encounter grounded in a culture of shared decision-making, with the expert healthcare professional team as consultants and the patient as an empowered decision-maker in a trustful safe therapeutic relationship.

The role of multiparametric flow cytometry in the detection of minimal residual disease in acute leukaemia.

PubMed

Lee, Denise; Grigoriadis, George; Westerman, David

2015-12-01

Flow cytometry is the most accessible method for minimal residual disease (MRD) detection due to its availability in most haematological centres. Using a precise combination of different antibodies, immunophenotypic detection of MRD in acute leukaemia can be performed by identifying abnormal combinations or expressions of antigens on malignant cells at diagnosis, during and post treatment. These abnormal phenotypes, referred to as leukaemia-associated immunophenotypes (LAIPs) are either absent or expressed at low frequency in normal bone marrow (BM) cells and are used to monitor the behaviour and quantitate the amount of residual disease following treatment. In paediatric acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL), the level of MRD by multiparametric flow cytometry (MPFC) during therapy is recognised as an important predictor of outcome. Although less extensively studied, adult ALL and adult and paediatric acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) have also demonstrated similar findings. The challenge now is incorporating this information for risk-stratification so that therapy can be tailored individually and ultimately improve outcome while also limiting treatment-related toxicity. In this review we will elaborate on the current and future role of MPFC in MRD in acute leukaemia while also addressing its limitations.

Acute myeloid leukaemia: expression of MYC protein and its association with cytogenetic risk profile and overall survival.

PubMed

Mughal, Muhammad Kashif; Akhter, Ariz; Street, Lesley; Pournazari, Payam; Shabani-Rad, Meer-Taher; Mansoor, Adnan

2017-09-01

Acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) is a clinically aggressive disease with marked genetic heterogeneity. Cytogenetic abnormalities provide the basis for risk stratification into clinically favourable, intermediate, and unfavourable groups. There are additional genetic mutations, which further influence the prognosis of patients with AML. Most of these result in molecular aberrations whose downstream target is MYC. It is therefore logical to study the relationship between MYC protein expression and cytogenetic risk groups. We studied MYC expression by immunohistochemistry in a large cohort (n = 199) of AML patients and correlated these results with cytogenetic risk profile and overall survival (OS). We illustrated differential expression of MYC protein across various cytogenetic risk groups (p = 0.03). Highest expression of MYC was noted in AML patients with favourable cytogenetic risk group. In univariate analysis, MYC expression showed significant negative influence of OS in favourable and intermediate cytogenetic risk group (p = 0.001). Interestingly, MYC expression had a protective effect in the unfavourable cytogenetic risk group. In multivariate analysis, while age and cytogenetic risk group were significant factors influencing survival, MYC expression by immunohistochemistry methods also showed some marginal impact (p = 0.069). In conclusion, we have identified differential expression of MYC protein in relation to cytogenetic risk groups in AML patients and documented its possible impact on OS in favourable and intermediate cytogenetic risk groups. These preliminary observations mandate additional studies to further investigate the routine clinical use of MYC protein expression in AML risk stratification. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predictive genetic testing for the identification of high-risk groups: a simulation study on the impact of predictive ability

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Genetic risk models could potentially be useful in identifying high-risk groups for the prevention of complex diseases. We investigated the performance of this risk stratification strategy by examining epidemiological parameters that impact the predictive ability of risk models. Methods We assessed sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value for all possible risk thresholds that can define high-risk groups and investigated how these measures depend on the frequency of disease in the population, the frequency of the high-risk group, and the discriminative accuracy of the risk model, as assessed by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC). In a simulation study, we modeled genetic risk scores of 50 genes with equal odds ratios and genotype frequencies, and varied the odds ratios and the disease frequency across scenarios. We also performed a simulation of age-related macular degeneration risk prediction based on published odds ratios and frequencies for six genetic risk variants. Results We show that when the frequency of the high-risk group was lower than the disease frequency, positive predictive value increased with the AUC but sensitivity remained low. When the frequency of the high-risk group was higher than the disease frequency, sensitivity was high but positive predictive value remained low. When both frequencies were equal, both positive predictive value and sensitivity increased with increasing AUC, but higher AUC was needed to maximize both measures. Conclusions The performance of risk stratification is strongly determined by the frequency of the high-risk group relative to the frequency of disease in the population. The identification of high-risk groups with appreciable combinations of sensitivity and positive predictive value requires higher AUC. PMID:21797996

Development and applications of the Veterans Health Administration's Stratification Tool for Opioid Risk Mitigation (STORM) to improve opioid safety and prevent overdose and suicide.

PubMed

Oliva, Elizabeth M; Bowe, Thomas; Tavakoli, Sara; Martins, Susana; Lewis, Eleanor T; Paik, Meenah; Wiechers, Ilse; Henderson, Patricia; Harvey, Michael; Avoundjian, Tigran; Medhanie, Amanuel; Trafton, Jodie A

2017-02-01

Concerns about opioid-related adverse events, including overdose, prompted the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) to launch an Opioid Safety Initiative and Overdose Education and Naloxone Distribution program. To mitigate risks associated with opioid prescribing, a holistic approach that takes into consideration both risk factors (e.g., dose, substance use disorders) and risk mitigation interventions (e.g., urine drug screening, psychosocial treatment) is needed. This article describes the Stratification Tool for Opioid Risk Mitigation (STORM), a tool developed in VHA that reflects this holistic approach and facilitates patient identification and monitoring. STORM prioritizes patients for review and intervention according to their modeled risk for overdose/suicide-related events and displays risk factors and risk mitigation interventions obtained from VHA electronic medical record (EMR)-data extracts. Patients' estimated risk is based on a predictive risk model developed using fiscal year 2010 (FY2010: 10/1/2009-9/30/2010) EMR-data extracts and mortality data among 1,135,601 VHA patients prescribed opioid analgesics to predict risk for an overdose/suicide-related event in FY2011 (2.1% experienced an event). Cross-validation was used to validate the model, with receiver operating characteristic curves for the training and test data sets performing well (>.80 area under the curve). The predictive risk model distinguished patients based on risk for overdose/suicide-related adverse events, allowing for identification of high-risk patients and enrichment of target populations of patients with greater safety concerns for proactive monitoring and application of risk mitigation interventions. Results suggest that clinical informatics can leverage EMR-extracted data to identify patients at-risk for overdose/suicide-related events and provide clinicians with actionable information to mitigate risk. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Current challenges and opportunities in treating adult patients with Philadelphia-negative acute lymphoblastic leukaemia.

PubMed

Wolach, Ofir; Amitai, Irina; DeAngelo, Daniel J

2017-12-01

Significant advances have been made in recent years in the field of Philadelphia-negative acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL). New insights into the biology and genetics of ALL as well as novel clinical observations and new drugs are changing the way we diagnose, risk-stratify and treat adult patients with ALL. New genetic subtypes and alterations refine risk stratification and uncover new actionable therapeutic targets. The incorporation of more intensive, paediatric and paediatric-inspired approaches for young adults seem to have a positive impact on survival in this population. Minimal residual disease at different time points can assist in tailoring risk-adapted interventions for patients based on individual response. Finally, novel targeted approaches with monoclonal antibodies, immunotherapies and small molecules are moving through clinical development and entering the clinic. The aim of this review is to consolidate the abundance of emerging data and to review and revisit the concepts of risk-stratification, choice of induction and post-remission strategies as well as to discuss and update the approach to specific populations with ALL, such as young adult, elderly/unfit and relapsed/refractory patients with ALL. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Post-contrast acute kidney injury. Part 2: risk stratification, role of hydration and other prophylactic measures, patients taking metformin and chronic dialysis patients : Recommendations for updated ESUR Contrast Medium Safety Committee guidelines.

PubMed

van der Molen, Aart J; Reimer, Peter; Dekkers, Ilona A; Bongartz, Georg; Bellin, Marie-France; Bertolotto, Michele; Clement, Olivier; Heinz-Peer, Gertraud; Stacul, Fulvio; Webb, Judith A W; Thomsen, Henrik S

2018-07-01

The Contrast Media Safety Committee (CMSC) of the European Society of Urogenital Radiology (ESUR) has updated its 2011 guidelines on the prevention of post-contrast acute kidney injury (PC-AKI). The results of the literature review and the recommendations based on it, which were used to prepare the new guidelines, are presented in two papers. AREAS COVERED IN PART 2: Topics reviewed include stratification of PC-AKI risk, the need to withdraw nephrotoxic medication, PC-AKI prophylaxis with hydration or drugs, the use of metformin in diabetic patients receiving contrast medium and the need to alter dialysis schedules in patients receiving contrast medium. • In CKD, hydration reduces the PC-AKI risk • Intravenous normal saline and intravenous sodium bicarbonate provide equally effective prophylaxis • No drugs have been consistently shown to reduce the risk of PC-AKI • Stop metformin from the time of contrast medium administration if eGFR < 30 ml/min/1.73 m 2 • Dialysis schedules need not change when intravascular contrast medium is given.

Chronic Kidney Disease in Pregnancy.

PubMed

Koratala, Abhilash; Bhattacharya, Deepti; Kazory, Amir

2017-09-01

With the increasing prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) worldwide, the number of pregnant women with various degrees of renal dysfunction is expected to increase. There is a bidirectional relation between CKD and pregnancy in which renal dysfunction negatively affects pregnancy outcomes, and the pregnancy can have a deleterious impact on various aspects of kidney disease. It has been shown that even mild renal dysfunction can increase considerably the risk of adverse maternal and fetal outcomes. Moreover, data suggest that a history of recovery from acute kidney injury is associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. In addition to kidney dysfunction, maternal hypertension and proteinuria predispose women to negative outcomes and are important factors to consider in preconception counseling and the process of risk stratification. In this review, we provide an overview of the physiologic renal changes during pregnancy as well as available data regarding CKD and pregnancy outcomes. We also highlight the important management strategies in women with certain selected renal conditions that are seen commonly during the childbearing years. We call for future research on underexplored areas such as the concept of renal functional reserve to develop a potential clinical tool for prognostication and risk stratification of women at higher risk for complications during pregnancy.

Risk stratification for large artery or chronic coronary artery disease-related ischemic stroke in octogenarians undergoing exercise stress myocardial perfusion imaging: A cohort study.

PubMed

Katsikis, Athanasios; Theodorakos, Athanasios; Drosatos, Alexandros; Konstantinou, Konstantinos; Papaioannou, Spyridon; Koutelou, Maria

2017-04-01

To test, if in octogenarians, treadmill exercise with myocardial perfusion imaging (exercise-MPI) can risk stratify for large artery or chronic CAD-related ischemic stroke (LACCIS). Exercise-MPI-related data of 237 octogenarians (55% prior MI or revascularization) without previous stroke were registered and prospective follow-up was performed to document LACCIS. LACCIS was defined as acute onset of neurological symptoms with CT/MRI findings of non-lacunar-type infarcts in the absence of atrial fibrillation or intracardiac embolic sources. After 7.3 years, 10 LACCIS were documented. SSS [HR 1.08 (1.02-1.13 95% CIs), SDS [HR 1.1 (1.04-1.16 95% CIs)], and non-sustained VT or transient AV block during exercise [HR 3.9 (1.7-9.0 95% CIs)] were predictors of LACCIS (P < .01 for all). A SSS threshold of 16 had 81% specificity for identification of future LACCIS and risk groups formed according to this cut-off had significantly different LACCIS-free survival (P = .015). Exercise-MPI in octogenarians can provide risk stratification markers for LACCIS.

Papanicolaou Society of Cytopathology new guidelines have a greater ability of risk stratification for pancreatic endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration specimens

PubMed Central

Chen, Bo; Zhao, Yu; Gu, Jiangang; Wu, Huanwen; Liang, Zhiyong; Meng, Zhilan

2017-01-01

The Papanicolaou Society of Cytopathology has recently proposed a standardized terminology and nomenclature guidelines for pancreatic cytology. However the risk of malignancy associated with the new guidelines has been scarcely studied. In this study, a series of pancreatic cytology cases obtained by endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration from 294 Chinese patients were retrospectively re-categorized into six categories according the new guidelines. The risks of malignancy were 18.1% for “negative,” 20.0% for “neoplastic,” 57.1% for “nondiagnostic,” 69.2% for “atypical,” 87.5% for “suspicious,” and 100.0% for “positive” respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.93 (95% Confidence Interval, 0.90-0.96), which was significantly higher than that associated with old classification system (0.82; 95% Confidence Interval, 0.77-0.87) conventionally used in China. Our investigation demonstrated that the new guidelines have a greater ability of risk stratification than the old classification system conventionally used in China. This may be helpful in giving better predictions of malignancy, thus leading to more personalized treatment strategies. PMID:28042957

Sharing extended summary data from contemporary genetics studies is unlikely to threaten subject privacy.

PubMed

Bacanu, Silviu-Alin

2017-01-01

Starting from a forensic problem, Homer et al. showed that it was possible to detect if an individual contributes only 0.5% of the DNA in a pool. The finding was extended to prove the possibility of detecting whether a subject participated in a small homogeneous GWAS. We denote this as the detection of a subject belonging to a certain cohort (SBCC). Subsequently, Visscher and Hill showed that the power to detect SBCC signal for an ethnically homogeneous cohort depends roughly on the ratio of the number of independent markers and total sample size. However, it is not clear if the same holds for more ethnically diverse cohorts. Later, Masca et al. propose running as SBCC test a regression of departure from assumed population frequency of i) subject genotype on ii) cohort of interest frequency. They use simulations to show that the approach has better SBCC detection power than the original Homer method but is impeded by population stratification. To investigate the possibility of SBCC detection in multi-ethnic cohorts, we generalize the Masca et al. approach by theoretically deriving the correlation between a subject genotype and the cohort reference allele frequencies (RAFs) for stratified cohorts. Based on the derived formula, we theoretically show that, due to background stratification noise, SBCC detection is unlikely even for mildly stratified cohorts of size greater than around a thousand subjects. Thus, for the vast majority of contemporary cohorts, the fear of compromising privacy via SBCC detection is unfounded.

Prognostic impact of peakVO2-changes in stable CHF on chronic beta-blocker treatment.

PubMed

Frankenstein, L; Nelles, M; Hallerbach, M; Dukic, D; Fluegel, A; Schellberg, D; Katus, H A; Remppis, A; Zugck, C

2007-11-15

Peak oxygen uptake (pVO2) is used for risk stratification in chronic heart failure (CHF), but little is known about the prognostic impact of pVO2-changes in patients on chronic beta-blocker (BBL) therapy. We therefore prospectively evaluated individual pVO2-changes at a 6-month interval in patients all receiving BBL. 194 patients with stable CHF on stable medication were included (V1) and underwent clinical evaluation and exercise testing. Testing was repeated (V2) at 5.7+/-1.5 months after V1 and patients were followed >12 months after V2. Death or hospitalisation due to cardiac reasons was the predefined EP (EPP, end-point positive; n=62; EPN, end-point negative; n=113). Initial characteristics did not differ between EPP and EPN. Multivariate cox regression analysis revealed that change of pVO2 (EPP: -0.6+/-2.6 ml/kg min; EPN: +2.5+/-3.3 ml/kg min; p<0.001) was independent to pVO2, LVEF, NTproBNP and NYHA at V2 for prediction of the combined end-point during follow-up. An increase of pVO2 by 10% was identified as an adequate cut-off value for risk stratification and ROC-analysis showed the significant incremental prognostic value of the determination of pVO2 changes in combination with pVO2. Serial measurements of pVO2 yield additional information for risk stratification in clinically homogenous CHF patients receiving BBL. This is the first study demonstrating this fact within a narrow predefined interval with all patients on BBL.

Updated systematic review and meta-analysis of the performance of risk prediction rules in children and young people with febrile neutropenia.

PubMed

Phillips, Robert S; Lehrnbecher, Thomas; Alexander, Sarah; Sung, Lillian

2012-01-01

Febrile neutropenia is a common and potentially life-threatening complication of treatment for childhood cancer, which has increasingly been subject to targeted treatment based on clinical risk stratification. Our previous meta-analysis demonstrated 16 rules had been described and 2 of them subject to validation in more than one study. We aimed to advance our knowledge of evidence on the discriminatory ability and predictive accuracy of such risk stratification clinical decision rules (CDR) for children and young people with cancer by updating our systematic review. The review was conducted in accordance with Centre for Reviews and Dissemination methods, searching multiple electronic databases, using two independent reviewers, formal critical appraisal with QUADAS and meta-analysis with random effects models where appropriate. It was registered with PROSPERO: CRD42011001685. We found 9 new publications describing a further 7 new CDR, and validations of 7 rules. Six CDR have now been subject to testing across more than two data sets. Most validations demonstrated the rule to be less efficient than when initially proposed; geographical differences appeared to be one explanation for this. The use of clinical decision rules will require local validation before widespread use. Considerable uncertainty remains over the most effective rule to use in each population, and an ongoing individual-patient-data meta-analysis should develop and test a more reliable CDR to improve stratification and optimise therapy. Despite current challenges, we believe it will be possible to define an internationally effective CDR to harmonise the treatment of children with febrile neutropenia.

Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of the Performance of Risk Prediction Rules in Children and Young People with Febrile Neutropenia

PubMed Central

Phillips, Robert S.; Lehrnbecher, Thomas; Alexander, Sarah; Sung, Lillian

2012-01-01

Introduction Febrile neutropenia is a common and potentially life-threatening complication of treatment for childhood cancer, which has increasingly been subject to targeted treatment based on clinical risk stratification. Our previous meta-analysis demonstrated 16 rules had been described and 2 of them subject to validation in more than one study. We aimed to advance our knowledge of evidence on the discriminatory ability and predictive accuracy of such risk stratification clinical decision rules (CDR) for children and young people with cancer by updating our systematic review. Methods The review was conducted in accordance with Centre for Reviews and Dissemination methods, searching multiple electronic databases, using two independent reviewers, formal critical appraisal with QUADAS and meta-analysis with random effects models where appropriate. It was registered with PROSPERO: CRD42011001685. Results We found 9 new publications describing a further 7 new CDR, and validations of 7 rules. Six CDR have now been subject to testing across more than two data sets. Most validations demonstrated the rule to be less efficient than when initially proposed; geographical differences appeared to be one explanation for this. Conclusion The use of clinical decision rules will require local validation before widespread use. Considerable uncertainty remains over the most effective rule to use in each population, and an ongoing individual-patient-data meta-analysis should develop and test a more reliable CDR to improve stratification and optimise therapy. Despite current challenges, we believe it will be possible to define an internationally effective CDR to harmonise the treatment of children with febrile neutropenia. PMID:22693615

The metabolic syndrome in a Congolese population and its implications for metabolic syndrome definitions.

PubMed

Longo-Mbenza, B; Kasiam Lasi On'kin, J B; Nge Okwe, A; Kangola Kabangu, N

2011-01-01

Metabolic syndrome defined by International cut-off values are limited to detect people at high cardiometabolic risk in Central Africans in comparison with metabolic syndrome defined by ethnic-specific definition. We examined the relationship between metabolic syndromes, diabetes control, abdominal obesity, HDL-cholesterol groups and atherosclerotic complications. A representative sample of type-2 diabetic central Africans from Kinshasa were studied. Outcome measures included control of diabetes, atherosclerosis, abdominal obesity, insulin resistance, total cholesterol, triglycerides, HDL-cholesterol, metabolic syndromes and atherosclerosis. Of 1266 type-2 diabetic patients (48.8%), (61.8%), (27.1%) and (81%) had uncontrolled diabetes, atherosclerotics, metabolic syndrome (IDF/Europe), and metabolic syndrome (IDF/local) respectively. There was a significant U-shaped relationship between atherosclerotics complications, insulin resistance, delta postprandial glycaemia and HDL-cholesterol stratification. There was also a significant U-shaped relationship between cardiometabolic risk (P<0.01) and atherosclerotic complications. Type-2 diabetic Central Africans exhibit very high rates of uncontrolled diabetes, atherosclerotic complications and metabolic syndrome. Both, abdominal obesity, insulin resistance, low and very high HDL-cholesterol levels are cardiometabolic risk factors. Crown Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Noninvasive assessment of arterial function in children: clinical applications

PubMed Central

Aggoun, Y; Beghetti, M

2002-01-01

Non invasive methods to assess arterial function are widely used in adults. The development and progression of arterial vascular disease is a multifactorial process that can start early in life, thus even in a pediatric population. Risk factors for cardiovascular disease mediate their effects by altering the structure, properties and function of wall and endothelial components of the arterial blood vessels. The ability to detect and monitor sub-clinical damage, representing the cumulative and integrated influence of risk factors in impairing arterial wall integrity, holds potential to further refine cardiovascular risk stratification and enable early intervention to prevent or attenuate disease progression. Measurements that provide more direct information in relation to changes in arterial wall integrity clearly hold predictive and therapeutic potential. The aim of this current review will be to describe the non-invasive procedure used in children to investigate the mechanical properties of a great elastic artery, the common carotid, and the endothelial function of the brachial artery. The accuracy of recording noninvasively the blood pressure wave contour along the arterial tree has been improved by the technique of applanation tonometry. The results obtained with these methods in previous studies are described. PMID:22368620

Association of cardiac troponin I with disease severity and outcomes in patients with pulmonary hypertension.

PubMed

Vélez-Martínez, Mariella; Ayers, Colby; Mishkin, Joseph D; Bartolome, Sonja B; García, Christine K; Torres, Fernando; Drazner, Mark H; de Lemos, James A; Turer, Aslan T; Chin, Kelly M

2013-06-15

Previous studies have identified cardiac troponin I (cTnI) as an important marker in pulmonary hypertension (PH) prognosis. However, traditional assays are limited by poor sensitivity, even among patients at high risk. cTnI was measured in 255 PH patients using a new highly sensitive (hs) assay. Other measures included demographics, creatinine, 6-minute walk distance, hemodynamics, cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, and B-type natriuretic peptide level. The association between cTnI and survival was assessed using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox regression. cTnI was detectable with the hs assay in 95% of the patients with a median level of 6.9 pg/ml (IQR 2.7-12.6 pg/ml). Higher cTnI levels associated with higher levels of B-type natriuretic peptide, shorter 6-minute walk distance, and more severe hemodynamic and cardiac magnetic resonance imaging abnormalities. During a median follow-up of 3.5 years, 60 individuals died. Unadjusted event rates increased across higher cTnI quartiles (3, 5, 13, 17 events/100 person-years, respectively, p trend = 0.002). cTnI in the fourth (vs first) quartile remained associated with death in a final stepwise multivariable model that included clinical variables and hemodynamics (adjusted hazard ratio 5.3, 95% confidence interval 1.8-15.6). In conclusion, cTnI levels, detectable with a novel hs assay, identify patients with PH who have more severe hemodynamic and cardiac structural abnormalities and provide novel and independent prognostic information. This hs assay has the potential to detect more at-risk patients and improve current risk-stratification algorithms. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Applying Latent Class Analysis to Risk Stratification for Perioperative Mortality in Patients Undergoing Intraabdominal General Surgery.

PubMed

Kim, Minjae; Wall, Melanie M; Li, Guohua

2016-07-01

Perioperative risk stratification is often performed using individual risk factors without consideration of the syndemic of these risk factors. We used latent class analysis (LCA) to identify the classes of comorbidities and risk factors associated with perioperative mortality in patients presenting for intraabdominal general surgery. The 2005 to 2010 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was used to obtain a cohort of patients undergoing intraabdominal general surgery. Risk factors and comorbidities were entered into LCA models to identify the latent classes, and individuals were assigned to a class based on the highest posterior probability of class membership. Relative risk regression was used to determine the associations between the latent classes and 30-day mortality, with adjustments for procedure. A 9-class model was fit using LCA on 466,177 observations. After combining classes with similar adjusted mortality risks, 5 risk classes were obtained. Compared with the class with average mortality risk (class 4), the risk ratios (95% confidence interval) ranged from 0.020 (0.014-0.027) in the lowest risk class (class 1) to 6.75 (6.46-7.02) in the highest risk class. After adjusting for procedure and ASA physical status, the latent classes remained significantly associated with 30-day mortality. The addition of the risk class variable to a model containing ASA physical status and surgical procedure demonstrated a significant increase in the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (0.892 vs 0.915; P < 0.0001). Latent classes of risk factors and comorbidities in patients undergoing intraabdominal surgery are predictive of 30-day mortality independent of the ASA physical status and improve risk prediction with the ASA physical status.

Assigning Cytomegalovirus (CMV) Status in Children Awaiting Organ Transplant: Viral Shedding, CMV-Specific T-cells and CD27-CD28-CD4+ T-cells.

PubMed

Burton, Catherine E; Sester, Martina; Robinson, Joan L; Eurich, Dean T; Preiksaitis, Jutta K; Urschel, Simon

2018-05-24

Passive antibodies, maternal or transfusion-acquired, make serologic determination of pre-transplant cytomegalovirus (CMV) status unreliable. We evaluated 3 assays un-affected by passive antibodies, in assignment of CMV infection status in children awaiting solid organ transplant and in controls: i) CMV Nucleic Acid Amplification Testing (NAAT), quantification of ii) CMV-specific CD4+T-cells, and iii) CD27-CD28-CD4+T-cells. Our results highlight that CMV NAAT, from urine and oropharynx, is useful in confirming positive CMV status. Detection of CMV-specific CD4+T-cells was sensitive and specific in children >18 months but was less sensitive in children <12 months. CD27-CD28- CD4+T-cells are not likely useful in CMV risk-stratification in children.

Cardio-oncology: cardiovascular complications of cancer therapy.

PubMed

Henning, Robert J; Harbison, Raymond D

2017-07-01

This paper focuses on three classes of commonly used anticancer drugs, which can cause cardiotoxicity: anthracyclines, monoclonal antibodies exemplified by trastuzumab and tyrosine kinase inhibitors. Anthracyclines can induce cardiomyocyte necrosis and fibrosis. Trastuzumab can cause cardiac stunning. The tyrosine kinase inhibitors can increase systemic arterial pressure and impair myocyte contractility. In addition, radiation therapy to the mediastinum or left chest can exacerbate the cardiotoxicity of these anticancer drugs and can also cause accelerated atherosclerosis, myocardial infarction, heart failure and arrhythmias. Left ventricular ejection fraction measurements are most commonly used to assess cardiac function in patients who receive chemo- or radiation-therapy. However, echocardiographic determinations of global longitudinal strain are more sensitive for detection of early left ventricular systolic dysfunction. Information on patient-risk stratification and monitoring is presented and guidelines for the medical treatment of cardiac dysfunction due to cancer therapies are summarized.

Gene expression overlap affects karyotype prediction in pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia

DOE PAGES

Martin, S. B.; Mosquera-Caro, M. P.; Potter, J. W.; ...

2007-04-05

Leukemia is the most common childhood malignancy in the United States. Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) accounts for 75% of new leukemia cases in children. Although the outcome for children with ALL has improved dramatically over the past three decades, 25% of children with ALL still develop recurrent disease. Current risk classification schemes in pediatric ALL use clinical and laboratory parameters such as age and initial white blood cell count, as well as the presence of specific ALL-associated cytogenetic or molecular genetic abnormalities. Stratification based on cytogenetic analysis and molecular genetic detection consider B precursor ALL translocations such as t(12;21)(TEL-AML1), t(1;19)(E2A-PBX1)more » and t(9;22)(BCR-ABL), as well as numerical imbalances such as hyperdiploidy, specific chromosome trisomies or hypodiploidy. Despite such efforts, current diagnosis and risk classification schemes in pediatric ALL remain imprecise. In particular, it is likely that a significant number of higher-risk children are currently overtreated and could be cured with less intensive regimens, resulting in fewer toxicities and long-term side effects. Finally and conversely, a significant number of children in lower-risk categories still relapse and precise means to prospectively identify them have remained elusive.« less

Genes associated with Type 2 Diabetes and vascular complications.

PubMed

Montesanto, Alberto; Bonfigli, Anna Rita; Crocco, Paolina; Garagnani, Paolo; De Luca, Maria; Boemi, Massimo; Marasco, Elena; Pirazzini, Chiara; Giuliani, Cristina; Franceschi, Claudio; Passarino, Giuseppe; Testa, Roberto; Olivieri, Fabiola; Rose, Giuseppina

2018-02-04

Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) is a chronic disease associated with a number of micro- and macrovascular complications that increase the morbidity and mortality of patients. The risk of diabetic complications has a strong genetic component. To this end, we sought to evaluate the association of 40 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 21 candidate genes with T2D and its vascular complications in 503 T2D patients and 580 healthy controls. The genes were chosen because previously reported to be associated with T2D complications and/or with the aging process. We replicated the association of T2D risk with I GF2BP rs4402960 and detected novel associations with TERT rs2735940 and rs2736098. The addition of these SNPs to a model including traditional risk factors slightly improved risk prediction. After stratification of patients according to the presence/absence of vascular complications, we found significant associations of variants in the CAT , FTO , and UCP1 genes with diabetic retinopathy and nephropathy. Additionally, a variant in the ADIPOQ gene was found associated with macrovascular complications. Notably, these genes are involved in some way in mitochondrial biology and reactive oxygen species regulation. Hence, our findings strongly suggest a potential link between mitochondrial oxidative homeostasis and individual predisposition to diabetic vascular complications.

Population based allele frequencies of disease associated polymorphisms in the Personalized Medicine Research Project.

PubMed

Cross, Deanna S; Ivacic, Lynn C; Stefanski, Elisha L; McCarty, Catherine A

2010-06-17

There is a lack of knowledge regarding the frequency of disease associated polymorphisms in populations and population attributable risk for many populations remains unknown. Factors that could affect the association of the allele with disease, either positively or negatively, such as race, ethnicity, and gender, may not be possible to determine without population based allele frequencies.Here we used a panel of 51 polymorphisms previously associated with at least one disease and determined the allele frequencies within the entire Personalized Medicine Research Project population based cohort. We compared these allele frequencies to those in dbSNP and other data sources stratified by race. Differences in allele frequencies between self reported race, region of origin, and sex were determined. There were 19544 individuals who self reported a single racial category, 19027 or (97.4%) self reported white Caucasian, and 11205 (57.3%) individuals were female. Of the 11,208 (57%) individuals with an identifiable region of origin 8337 or (74.4%) were German.41 polymorphisms were significantly different between self reported race at the 0.05 level. Stratification of our Caucasian population by self reported region of origin revealed 19 polymorphisms that were significantly different (p = 0.05) between individuals of different origins. Further stratification of the population by gender revealed few significant differences in allele frequencies between the genders. This represents one of the largest population based allele frequency studies to date. Stratification by self reported race and region of origin revealed wide differences in allele frequencies not only by race but also by region of origin within a single racial group. We report allele frequencies for our Asian/Hmong and American Indian populations; these two minority groups are not typically selected for population allele frequency detection. Population wide allele frequencies are important for the design and implementation of studies and for determining the relevance of a disease associated polymorphism for a given population.

Tracking composition of microbial communities for simultaneous nitrification and denitrification in polyurethane foam.

PubMed

Chen, Yuan; Wang, Li; Ma, Fang; Yang, Ji-xian; Qiu, Shan

2014-01-01

The process of simultaneous nitrification and denitrification (SND) of immobilized microorganisms in polyurethane form is discussed. The effect of different positions within the polyurethane carrier on microbial community response for the SND process is investigated by a combination of denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis profiles of the 16S rRNA gene V3 region and scanning electron microscopy. Results show that polyurethane, which consists of a unique porous structure, is an ideal platform for biofilm stratification of aerobe, anaerobe and facultative microorganisms in regard to the SND process. The community structure diversity response to different positions was distinct. The distributions of various functional microbes, detected from the surface aerobic stratification to the interior anaerobic stratification of polyurethane, were mainly nitrifying and denitrifying bacteria. Meanwhile aerobic denitrifying bacteria such as Paracoccus sp., Agrobacterium rubi and Ochrobactrum sp. were also adhered to the interior and surface of polyurethane. The SND process occurring on polyurethane foam was carried out by two independent processes: nitrogen removal and aerobic denitrification.

Home telemonitoring of vital signs--technical challenges and future directions.

PubMed

Celler, Branko G; Sparks, Ross S

2015-01-01

The telemonitoring of vital signs from the home is an essential element of telehealth services for the management of patients with chronic conditions, such as congestive heart failure (CHF), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), diabetes, or poorly controlled hypertension. Telehealth is now being deployed widely in both rural and urban settings, and in this paper, we discuss the contribution made by biomedical instrumentation, user interfaces, and automated risk stratification algorithms in developing a clinical diagnostic quality longitudinal health record at home. We identify technical challenges in the acquisition of high-quality biometric signals from unsupervised patients at home, identify new technical solutions and user interfaces, and propose new measurement modalities and signal processing techniques for increasing the quality and value of vital signs monitoring at home. We also discuss use of vital signs data for the automated risk stratification of patients, so that clinical resources can be targeted to those most at risk of unscheduled admission to hospital. New research is also proposed to integrate primary care, hospital, personal genomic, and telehealth electronic health records, and apply predictive analytics and data mining for enhancing clinical decision support.

Self-Reported Stroke Risk Stratification: Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke Study.

PubMed

Howard, George; McClure, Leslie A; Moy, Claudia S; Howard, Virginia J; Judd, Suzanne E; Yuan, Ya; Long, D Leann; Muntner, Paul; Safford, Monika M; Kleindorfer, Dawn O

2017-07-01

The standard for stroke risk stratification is the Framingham Stroke Risk Function (FSRF), an equation requiring an examination for blood pressure assessment, venipuncture for glucose assessment, and ECG to determine atrial fibrillation and heart disease. We assess a self-reported stroke risk function (SRSRF) to stratify stroke risk in comparison to the FSRF. Participants from the REGARDS study (Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke) were evaluated at baseline and followed for incident stroke. The FSRF was calculated using directly assessed stroke risk factors. The SRSRF was calculated from 13 self-reported questions to exclude those with prevalent stroke and assess stroke risk. Proportional hazards analysis was used to assess incident stroke risk using the FSRF and SRSRF. Over an average 8.2-year follow-up, 939 of 23 983 participants had a stroke. The FSRF and SRSRF produced highly correlated risk scores ( r Spearman =0.852; 95% confidence interval, 0.849-0.856); however, the SRSRF had higher discrimination of stroke risk than the FSRF (c SRSRF =0.7266; 95% confidence interval, 0.7076-0.7457; c FSRF =0.7075; 95% confidence interval, 0.6877-0.7273; P =0.0038). The 10-year stroke risk in the highest decile of predicted risk was 11.1% for the FSRF and 13.4% for the SRSRF. A simple self-reported questionnaire can be used to identify those at high risk for stroke better than the gold standard FSRF. This instrument can be used clinically to easily identify individuals at high risk for stroke and also scientifically to identify a subpopulation enriched for stroke risk. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Impact of Proteinuria and Glomerular Filtration Rate on Risk of Thromboembolism in Atrial Fibrillation: the ATRIA Study

PubMed Central

Go, Alan S.; Fang, Margaret C.; Udaltsova, Natalia; Chang, Yuchiao; Pomernacki, Niela K.; Borowsky, Leila; Singer, Daniel E.

2009-01-01

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) substantially increases the risk of ischemic stroke but this risk varies among individual patients with AF. Existing risk stratification schemes have limited predictive ability. Chronic kidney disease is a major cardiovascular risk factor, but whether it independently increases the risk for ischemic stroke in persons with AF is unknown. Methods and Results We examined how chronic kidney disease (reduced glomerular filtration rate or proteinuria) affects risk of thromboembolism off anticoagulation in patients with AF. We estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation and proteinuria from urine dipstick results found in laboratory databases. Patient characteristics, warfarin use, and thromboembolic events were ascertained from clinical databases, with validation of thromboembolism by chart review. Results During 33,165 person-years off anticoagulation among 10,908 patients with atrial fibrillation, we observed 676 incident thromboembolic events. After adjustment for known risk factors for stroke and other confounders, proteinuria increased the risk of thromboembolism by 54% (relative risk [RR] 1.54, 1.29 to 1.85) and there was a graded, increased risk of stroke associated with progressively lower level of eGFR compared with eGFR ≥60 (in units of ml/min/1.73 m2): RR 1.16 (95% CI: 0.95−1.40) for eGFR 45−59 and RR 1.39 (95% CI: 1.13−1.71) for eGFR <45 (P=0.0082 for trend). Conclusions . Chronic kidney disease increases the risk of thromboembolism in AF independent of other risk factors. Knowing the level of kidney function and presence of proteinuria may improve risk stratification for decision-making about the use of antithrombotic therapy for stroke prevention in AF. PMID:19255343

ERβ Expression and Breast Cancer Risk Prediction for Women with Atypias

PubMed Central

Hieken, Tina J; Carter, Jodi M; Hawse, John R; Hoskin, Tanya L; Bois, Melanie; Frost, Marlene; Hartmann, Lynn C; Radisky, Derek C; Visscher, Daniel W; Degnim, Amy C

2015-01-01

Estrogen receptor beta (ERβ) is highly expressed in normal breast epithelium and a putative tumor suppressor. Atypical hyperplasia substantially increases breast cancer risk, but identification of biomarkers to further improve risk stratification is needed. We evaluated ERβ expression in breast tissues from women with atypical hyperplasia and association with subsequent breast cancer risk. ERβ expression was examined by immunohistochemistry in a well-characterized 171 women cohort with atypical hyperplasia diagnosed 1967–1991. Nuclear ERβ percent and intensity was scored in the atypia and adjacent normal lobules. An ERβ sum score (percent + intensity) was calculated and grouped as low, moderate or high. Competing risks regression was used to assess associations of ERβ expression with breast cancer risk. After 15 years median follow-up, 36 women developed breast cancer. ERβ expression was lower in atypia lobules than normal lobules, by percent staining and intensity (both p<0.001). Higher ERβ expression in the atypia or normal lobules, evaluated by percent staining, intensity or sum score, decreased the risk of subsequent breast cancer by 2 (p=0.04) and 2.5-fold (p=0.006). High normal lobule ERβ expression conferred the strongest protective effect in pre-menopausal women: the 20-year cumulative incidence of breast cancer was 0% for women

Predicting Long-Term Outcomes in Pleural Infections. RAPID Score for Risk Stratification.

PubMed

White, Heath D; Henry, Christopher; Stock, Eileen M; Arroliga, Alejandro C; Ghamande, Shekhar

2015-09-01

Pleural infections are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The recently developed RAPID (renal, age, purulence, infection source, and dietary factors) score consists of five clinical factors that can identify patients at risk for increased mortality. The objective of this study was to further validate the RAPID score in a diverse cohort, identify factors associated with mortality, and provide long-term outcomes. We evaluated a single-center retrospective cohort of 187 patients with culture-positive pleural infections. Patients were classified by RAPID scores into low-risk (0-2), medium-risk (3-4), and high-risk (5-7) groups. The Social Security Death Index was used to determine date of death. All-cause mortality was assessed at 3 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years. Clinical factors and comorbid conditions were evaluated for association. Three-month mortality for low-, medium-, and high-risk groups was 1.5, 17.8, and 47.8%, respectively. Increased odds were observed among medium-risk (odds ratio, 14.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.8-112.6; P = 0.01) and high-risk groups (odds ratio, 53.3; 95% confidence interval, 6.8-416.8; P < 0.01). This trend continued at 1, 3, and 5 years. Factors associated with high-risk scores include gram-negative rod infections, heart disease, diabetes, cancer, lung disease, and increased length of stay. When applied to a diverse patient cohort, the RAPID score predicts outcomes in patients up to 5 years and may aid in long-term risk stratification on presentation.

Epidemiology of Lung Cancer

PubMed Central

Brock, Malcolm V.; Ford, Jean G.; Samet, Jonathan M.; Spivack, Simon D.

2013-01-01

Background: Ever since a lung cancer epidemic emerged in the mid-1900s, the epidemiology of lung cancer has been intensively investigated to characterize its causes and patterns of occurrence. This report summarizes the key findings of this research. Methods: A detailed literature search provided the basis for a narrative review, identifying and summarizing key reports on population patterns and factors that affect lung cancer risk. Results: Established environmental risk factors for lung cancer include smoking cigarettes and other tobacco products and exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke, occupational lung carcinogens, radiation, and indoor and outdoor air pollution. Cigarette smoking is the predominant cause of lung cancer and the leading worldwide cause of cancer death. Smoking prevalence in developing nations has increased, starting new lung cancer epidemics in these nations. A positive family history and acquired lung disease are examples of host factors that are clinically useful risk indicators. Risk prediction models based on lung cancer risk factors have been developed, but further refinement is needed to provide clinically useful risk stratification. Promising biomarkers of lung cancer risk and early detection have been identified, but none are ready for broad clinical application. Conclusions: Almost all lung cancer deaths are caused by cigarette smoking, underscoring the need for ongoing efforts at tobacco control throughout the world. Further research is needed into the reasons underlying lung cancer disparities, the causes of lung cancer in never smokers, the potential role of HIV in lung carcinogenesis, and the development of biomarkers. PMID:23649439

Role of cardiopulmonary exercise testing in clinical stratification in heart failure. A position paper from the Committee on Exercise Physiology and Training of the Heart Failure Association of the European Society of Cardiology.

PubMed

Corrà, Ugo; Agostoni, Pier Giuseppe; Anker, Stefan D; Coats, Andrew J S; Crespo Leiro, Maria G; de Boer, Rudolph A; Hairola, Veli-Pekka; Hill, Loreena; Lainscak, Mitja; Lund, Lars H; Metra, Marco; Ponikowski, Piotr; Riley, Jillian; Seferović, Petar M; Piepoli, Massimo F

2018-01-01

Traditionally, the main indication for cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) in heart failure (HF) was for the selection of candidates to heart transplantation: CPET was mainly performed in middle-aged male patients with HF and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction. Today, CPET is used in broader patients' populations, including women, elderly, patients with co-morbidities, those with preserved ejection fraction, or left ventricular assistance device recipients, i.e. individuals with different responses to incremental exercise and markedly different prognosis. Moreover, the diagnostic and prognostic utility of symptom-limited CPET parameters derived from submaximal tests is more and more considered, since many patients are unable to achieve maximal aerobic power. Repeated tests are also being used for risk stratification and evaluation of intervention, so that these data are now available. Finally, patients, physicians and healthcare decision makers are increasingly considering how treatments might impact morbidity and quality of life rather than focusing more exclusively on hard endpoints (such as mortality) as was often the case in the past. Innovative prognostic flowcharts, with CPET at their core, that help optimize risk stratification and the selection of management options in HF patients, have been developed. © 2017 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure © 2017 European Society of Cardiology.

Prognostic stratification improvement by integrating ID1/ID3/IGJ gene expression signature and immunophenotypic profile in adult patients with B-ALL.

PubMed

Cruz-Rodriguez, Nataly; Combita, Alba L; Enciso, Leonardo J; Raney, Lauren F; Pinzon, Paula L; Lozano, Olga C; Campos, Alba M; Peñaloza, Niyireth; Solano, Julio; Herrera, Maria V; Zabaleta, Jovanny; Quijano, Sandra

2017-02-28

Survival of adults with B-Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia requires accurate risk stratification of patients in order to provide the appropriate therapy. Contemporary techniques, using clinical and cytogenetic variables are incomplete for prognosis prediction. To improve the classification of adult patients diagnosed with B-ALL into prognosis groups, two strategies were examined and combined: the expression of the ID1/ID3/IGJ gene signature by RT-PCR and the immunophenotypic profile of 19 markers proposed in the EuroFlow protocol by Flow Cytometry in bone marrow samples. Both techniques were correlated to stratify patients into prognostic groups. An inverse relationship between survival and expression of the three-genes signature was observed and an immunophenotypic profile associated with clinical outcome was identified. Markers CD10 and CD20 were correlated with simultaneous overexpression of ID1, ID3 and IGJ. Patients with simultaneous expression of the poor prognosis gene signature and overexpression of CD10 or CD20, had worse Event Free Survival and Overall Survival than patients who had either the poor prognosis gene expression signature or only CD20 or CD10 overexpressed. By utilizing the combined evaluation of these two immunophenotypic markers along with the poor prognosis gene expression signature, the risk stratification can be significantly strengthened. Further studies including a large number of patients are needed to confirm these findings.

Following the (Clinical Decision) Rules: Opportunities for Improving Safety and Resource Utilization With the Bacterial Meningitis Score.

PubMed

Hagedorn, Philip A; Shah, Samir S; Kirkendall, Eric S

2016-05-01

The Bacterial Meningitis Score accurately classifies children with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) pleocytosis at very low risk (VLR) versus not very low risk (non-VLR) for bacterial meningitis. Most children with CSF pleocytosis detected during emergency department evaluation are hospitalized despite the high accuracy of this prediction rule and the decreasing incidence of bacterial meningitis. The lack of widespread use of this rule may contribute to unnecessary risk exposure and costs. This cross-sectional study included 1049 patients who, between January 2010 and May 2013, had suspicion for meningitis and underwent both a complete blood cell count and CSF studies during their emergency department evaluation. We then examined their hospitalizations to characterize exposure to drugs, radiologic studies, and the costs associated with their care to determine the safety and value repercussions of these VLR admissions. Primary outcomes include duration of antibiotics, exposure to drugs and radiology studies, safety events, and costs incurred during these VLR admissions. Twenty patients classified as VLR were admitted to the hospital. On average they received 35 hours of antibiotic therapy. There was 1 adverse drug event and 1 safety event. The VLR patients admitted to the hospital were exposed to risk and costs despite their low risk stratification. Systematic application of the Bacterial Meningitis Score could prevent these exposures and costs. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics

Genetic Modifiers of Ovarian Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-08-01

samples from many countries. To account for population stratification, the genotyping data in combination with HapMap data (CEU, Yoruban, Han Chinese...Cambridge, we evaluated associations with both breast and ovarian cancer using a retrospective likelihood model. This accounts for the age extremes of...carriers we used a competing risk analysis that accounted for the effects on breast and ovarian cancer in parallel. In this competing risk analysis

Prognostic Usefulness of Cardiac Stress Test Modalities in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Who Underwent Myocardial Perfusion Scintigraphy (from the Basel Asymptomatic High-Risk Diabetics' Outcome Trial).

PubMed

Caobelli, Federico; Haaf, Philip; Chronis, Joannis; Haenny, Gianluca; Brinkert, Miriam; Pfisterer, Matthias E; Zellweger, Michael J

2017-10-01

Our study aimed to assess predictors of the stress test technique used and to evaluate the impact of exercise level achieved on risk stratification in patients with asymptomatic type 2 diabetes without a previous coronary artery disease. Little is known whether co-morbidities of these patients predict the stress technique and whether physical performance provides risk stratification: 400 patients underwent clinical evaluation and myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS) using physical or pharmacological stress. Physical patients were divided into 2 groups: achieving <6 and ≥6 METs, respectively. The mean follow-up time was 2 years. Major cardiac events (MACEs) included myocardial infarction and/or cardiac death. Independent predictors of pharmacological stress were a body mass index of >30 kg/m 2 (hazard ratio 1.076, 95% confidence interval 1.027 to 1.127, p = 0.002) and a peripheral arterial disease (hazard ratio 2.888, 95% confidence interval 1.446 to 5.769, p = 0.003). Pharmacological patients had more MACE than physical patients (3.2% vs 1.0%, p = 0.03). Patients achieving <6 METs had a similar MACE rate as pharmacological patients (3.0% vs 3.2%, p = not significant) and more MACE than patients achieving ≥6 METs (3.0% vs 0.4%, p = 0.01). In patients achieving <6 METs and in pharmacological patients, MPS added an incremental prognostic value to pretest information (p values for global chi-square 0.012 and 0.04, respectively). In high-risk asymptomatic diabetic patients, co-morbidities were predictive of the stress technique used. Pharmacological patients had more MACE, similar to those unable to achieve 6 METs. MPS provided an incremental prognostic value in pharmacological patients and in patients with <6METs. In contrast, patients who were able to achieve ≥6 METs were at low risk and do not need further risk stratification. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Human heart failure biomarker immunosensor based on excessively tilted fiber gratings.

PubMed

Luo, Binbin; Wu, Shengxi; Zhang, Zhonghao; Zou, Wengen; Shi, Shenghui; Zhao, Mingfu; Zhong, Nianbing; Liu, Yong; Zou, Xue; Wang, Lingling; Chai, Weina; Hu, Chuanmin; Zhang, Lin

2017-01-01

A label-free immunosensor platform based on excessively tilted fiber gratings (Ex-TFGs) was developed for highly specific and fast detection of human N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), which is considered a powerful biomarker for prognosis and risk stratification of heart failure (HF). High-purity anti-NT-proBNP monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) prepared in our laboratory were immobilized on fiber surface through the staphylococcal protein A (SPA) method for subsequent specific binding of the targeted NT-proBNP. Utilizing fiber optic grating demodulation system (FOGDS), immunoassays were carried out in vitro by monitoring the resonance wavelength shift of Ex-TFG biosensor with immobilized anti-NT-proBNP MAbs. Lowest detectable concentration of ~0.5ng/mL for NT-proBNP was obtained, and average sensitivity for NT-proBNP at a concentration range of 0~1.0 ng/mL was approximately 45.967 pm/(ng/mL). Several human serum samples were assessed by the proposed Ex-TFG biomarker sensor, with high specificity for NT-proBNP, indicating potential application in early diagnosing patients with acute HF symptoms.

CT should replace three-view radiographs as the initial screening test in patients at high, moderate, and low risk for blunt cervical spine injury: a prospective comparison.

PubMed

Bailitz, John; Starr, Frederic; Beecroft, Matthew; Bankoff, Jon; Roberts, Roxanne; Bokhari, Faran; Joseph, Kimberly; Wiley, Dorian; Dennis, Andrew; Gilkey, Susan; Erickson, Paul; Raksin, Patricia; Nagy, Kimberly

2009-06-01

An estimated 10,000 Americans suffer cervical spine injuries each year. More than 800,000 cervical spine radiographs (CSR) are ordered annually. The human and healthcare costs associated with these injuries are enormous especially when diagnosis is delayed. Controversy exists in the literature concerning the diagnostic accuracy of CSR, with reported sensitivity ranging from 32% to 89%. We sought to compare prospectively the sensitivity of cervical CT (CCT) to CSR in the initial diagnosis of blunt cervical spine injury for patients meeting one or more of the NEXUS criteria. The study prospectively compared the diagnostic accuracy of CSR to CCT in consecutive patients evaluated for blunt trauma during 23 months at an urban, public teaching hospital and Level I Trauma Center. Inclusion criteria were adult patient, evaluated for blunt cervical spine injury, meeting one or more of the NEXUS criteria. All patients received both three-view CSR and CCT as part of a standard diagnostic protocol. Each CSR and CCT study was interpreted independently by a different radiology attending who was blinded to the results of the other study. Clinically significant injuries were defined as those requiring one or more of the following interventions: operative procedure, halo application, and/or rigid cervical collar. Of 1,583 consecutive patients evaluated for blunt cervical spine trauma, 78 (4.9%) patients received only CCT or CSR and were excluded from the study. Of the remaining 1,505 patients, 78 (4.9%) had evidence of a radiographic injury by CSR or CCT. Of these 78 patients with radiographic injury, 50 (3.3%) patients had clinically significant injuries. CCT detected all patients with clinically significant injuries (100% sensitive), whereas CSR detected only 18 (36% sensitive). Of the 50 patients, 15 were at high risk, 19 at moderate risk, and 16 at low risk for cervical spine injury according to previously published risk stratification. CSR detected clinically significant injury in 7 high risk (46% sensitive), 7 moderate risk (37% sensitive), and 4 low risk patients (25% sensitive). Our results demonstrate the superiority of CCT compared with CSR for the detection of clinically significant cervical spine injury. The improved ability to exclude injury rapidly provides further evidence that CCT should replace CSR for the initial evaluation of blunt cervical spine injury in patients at any risk for injury.

Estimating occupancy rates with imperfect detection under complex survey designs

EPA Science Inventory

Monitoring the occurrence of specific amphibian species is of interest. Typically, the monitoring design is a complex design that involves stratification and unequal probability of selection. When conducting field visits to selected sites, a common problem is that during a singl...

Intermediate outcomes in randomized clinical trials: an introduction

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Intermediate outcomes are common and typically on the causal pathway to the final outcome. Some examples include noncompliance, missing data, and truncation by death like pregnancy (e.g. when the trial intervention is given to non-pregnant women and the final outcome is preeclampsia, defined only on pregnant women). The intention-to-treat approach does not account properly for them, and more appropriate alternative approaches like principal stratification are not yet widely known. The purposes of this study are to inform researchers that the intention-to-treat approach unfortunately does not fit all problems we face in experimental research, to introduce the principal stratification approach for dealing with intermediate outcomes, and to illustrate its application to a trial of long term calcium supplementation in women at high risk of preeclampsia. Methods Principal stratification and related concepts are introduced. Two ways for estimating causal effects are discussed and their application is illustrated using the calcium trial, where noncompliance and pregnancy are considered as intermediate outcomes, and preeclampsia is the main final outcome. Results The limitations of traditional approaches and methods for dealing with intermediate outcomes are demonstrated. The steps, assumptions and required calculations involved in the application of the principal stratification approach are discussed in detail in the case of our calcium trial. Conclusions The intention-to-treat approach is a very sound one but unfortunately it does not fit all problems we find in randomized clinical trials; this is particularly the case for intermediate outcomes, where alternative approaches like principal stratification should be considered. PMID:23510143

World Health Organization cardiovascular risk stratification and target organ damage.

PubMed

Piskorz, D; Bongarzoni, L; Citta, L; Citta, N; Citta, P; Keller, L; Mata, L; Tommasi, A

2016-01-01

Prediction charts allow treatment to be targeted according to simple markers of cardiovascular risk; many algorithms do not recommend screening asymptomatic target organ damage which could change dramatically the assessment. To demonstrate that target organ damage is present in low cardiovascular risk hypertensive patients and it is more frequent and severe as global cardiovascular risk increases. Consecutive hypertensive patients treated at a single Latin American center. Cardiovascular risk stratified according to 2013 WHO/ISH risk prediction chart America B. Left ventricular mass assessed by Devereux method, left ventricular hypertrophy considered >95g/m(2) in women and >115g/m(2) in men. Transmitral diastolic peak early flow velocity to average septal/lateral peak early diastolic relaxation velocity (E/e' ratio) measured cut off value >13. Systolic function assessed by tissue Doppler average interventricular septum/lateral wall mitral annulus rate systolic excursion (s wave). A total of 292 patients were included of whom 159 patients (54.5%) had cardiovascular risk of <10%, 90 (30.8%) had cardiovascular risk of 10-20% and 43 (14.7%) had cardiovascular risk of >20%. Left ventricular hypertrophy was detected in 17.6% low risk patients, 27.8% in medium risk and 23.3% in high risk (p<0.05), abnormal E/e' ratio was found in 13.8%, 31.1% and 27.9%, respectively (p<0.05). Mean s wave was 8.03+8, 8.1+9 and 8.7+1cm/s for low, intermediate and high risk patients, respectively (p<0.025). Target organ damage is more frequent and severe in high risk; one over four subjects was misclassified due to the presence of asymptomatic target organ damage. Copyright © 2015 SEHLELHA. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Systematic Review of Metabolic Syndrome Biomarkers: A Panel for Early Detection, Management, and Risk Stratification in the West Virginian Population

PubMed Central

Srikanthan, Krithika; Feyh, Andrew; Visweshwar, Haresh; Shapiro, Joseph I.; Sodhi, Komal

2016-01-01

Introduction: Metabolic syndrome represents a cluster of related metabolic abnormalities, including central obesity, hypertension, dyslipidemia, hyperglycemia, and insulin resistance, with central obesity and insulin resistance in particular recognized as causative factors. These metabolic derangements present significant risk factors for cardiovascular disease, which is commonly recognized as the primary clinical outcome, although other outcomes are possible. Metabolic syndrome is a progressive condition that encompasses a wide array of disorders with specific metabolic abnormalities presenting at different times. These abnormalities can be detected and monitored via serum biomarkers. This review will compile a list of promising biomarkers that are associated with metabolic syndrome and this panel can aid in early detection and management of metabolic syndrome in high risk populations, such as in West Virginia. Methods: A literature review was conducted using PubMed, Science Direct, and Google Scholar to search for markers related to metabolic syndrome. Biomarkers searched included adipokines (leptin, adiponectin), neuropeptides (ghrelin), pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-6, TNF-α), anti-inflammatory cytokines (IL-10), markers of antioxidant status (OxLDL, PON-1, uric acid), and prothrombic factors (PAI-1). Results: According to the literature, the concentrations of pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-6, TNF-α), markers of pro-oxidant status (OxLDL, uric acid), and prothrombic factors (PAI-1) were elevated in metabolic syndrome. Additionally, leptin concentrations were found to be elevated in metabolic syndrome as well, likely due to leptin resistance. In contrast, concentrations of anti-inflammatory cytokines (IL-10), ghrelin, adiponectin, and antioxidant factors (PON-1) were decreased in metabolic syndrome, and these decreases also correlated with specific disorders within the cluster. Conclusion: Based on the evidence presented within the literature, the aforementioned biomarkers correlate significantly with metabolic syndrome and could provide a minimally-invasive means for early detection and specific treatment of these disorders. Further research is encouraged to determine the efficacy of applying these biomarkers to diagnosis and treatment in a clinical setting. PMID:26816492

Highly sensitive troponin T for risk stratification of acutely destabilized heart failure.

PubMed

Pascual-Figal, Domingo A; Casas, Teresa; Ordonez-Llanos, Jordi; Manzano-Fernández, Sergio; Bonaque, Juan C; Boronat, Miguel; Muñoz-Esparza, Carmen; Valdés, Mariano; Januzzi, James L

2012-06-01

A highly sensitive assay for troponin T (hsTnT) has been recently developed, which allows for the detection of even minor myocardial necrosis with high precision. It remains unexplored whether hsTnT provides incremental prognostic accuracy beyond conventional (c)TnT in patients with acutely decompensated heart failure (ADHF). A total of 202 consecutive patients admitted with ADHF and without criteria for acute myocardial infarction were studied. Troponin T was measured using the highly sensitive assay and compared with the conventional method. Patients were clinically followed up at a median of 406 days, with a primary outcome measure of all-cause mortality. The high-sensitive assay detected measurable TnT in 98% of patients vs 56% for cTnT; 81% had an hsTnT above the 99th percentile for a healthy reference population, and it reclassified 60% of those with undetectable cTnT. Both TnT methods predicted the risk of death in adjusted multivariable Cox regression analyses, without a superiority of hsTnT over cTnT in the entire population (area under the curve 0.67 vs 0.71, P = .2). Among patients with a cTnT below 0.03 ng/mL (the lowest cut-point with <10% imprecision; n = 134), solely hsTnT improved the prediction of death over clinical risk factors (relative integrated discrimination improvement +36%, P = .01) and hsTnT above 20 pg/mL identified a significant higher risk of death (hazard ratio 4.7, 95% CI 1.6-13.8, P = .005). Among patients with ADHF, myocardial necrosis (as detected with the hsTnT assay) was nearly ubiquitous. The highly sensitive assay for TnT provides comparable prognostic information to cTnT overall, but among those in whom the cTnT method was less precise or frankly negative, the hsTnT assay provided prognostic information. Copyright © 2012 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Serial circulating tumour DNA analysis during multimodality treatment of locally advanced rectal cancer: a prospective biomarker study.

PubMed

Tie, Jeanne; Cohen, Joshua D; Wang, Yuxuan; Li, Lu; Christie, Michael; Simons, Koen; Elsaleh, Hany; Kosmider, Suzanne; Wong, Rachel; Yip, Desmond; Lee, Margaret; Tran, Ben; Rangiah, David; Burge, Matthew; Goldstein, David; Singh, Madhu; Skinner, Iain; Faragher, Ian; Croxford, Matthew; Bampton, Carolyn; Haydon, Andrew; Jones, Ian T; S Karapetis, Christos; Price, Timothy; Schaefer, Mary J; Ptak, Jeanne; Dobbyn, Lisa; Silliman, Natallie; Kinde, Isaac; Tomasetti, Cristian; Papadopoulos, Nickolas; Kinzler, Kenneth; Volgestein, Bert; Gibbs, Peter

2018-02-02

For patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC), adjuvant chemotherapy selection following surgery remains a major clinical dilemma. Here, we investigated the ability of circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) to improve risk stratification in patients with LARC. We enrolled patients with LARC (T3/T4 and/or N+) planned for neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Plasma samples were collected pretreatment, postchemoradiotherapy and 4-10 weeks after surgery. Somatic mutations in individual patient's tumour were identified via massively parallel sequencing of 15 genes commonly mutated in colorectal cancer. We then designed personalised assays to quantify ctDNA in plasma samples. Patients received adjuvant therapy at clinician discretion, blinded to the ctDNA results. We analysed 462 serial plasma samples from 159 patients. ctDNA was detectable in 77%, 8.3% and 12% of pretreatment, postchemoradiotherapy and postsurgery plasma samples. Significantly worse recurrence-free survival was seen if ctDNA was detectable after chemoradiotherapy (HR 6.6; P<0.001) or after surgery (HR 13.0; P<0.001). The estimated 3-year recurrence-free survival was 33% for the postoperative ctDNA-positive patients and 87% for the postoperative ctDNA-negative patients. Postoperative ctDNA detection was predictive of recurrence irrespective of adjuvant chemotherapy use (chemotherapy: HR 10.0; P<0.001; without chemotherapy: HR 22.0; P<0.001). Postoperative ctDNA status remained an independent predictor of recurrence-free survival after adjusting for known clinicopathological risk factors (HR 6.0; P<0.001). Postoperative ctDNA analysis stratifies patients with LARC into subsets that are either at very high or at low risk of recurrence, independent of conventional clinicopathological risk factors. ctDNA analysis could potentially be used to guide patient selection for adjuvant chemotherapy. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Dynamic Risk Stratification in Stage I Papillary Thyroid Cancer Patients Younger Than 45 Years of Age.

PubMed

Sung, Tae-Yon; Cho, Jae Won; Lee, Yu-Mi; Lee, Yi Ho; Kwon, Hyemi; Jeon, Min Ji; Kim, Won Gu; Choi, Young Jun; Song, Dong Eun; Chung, Ki-Wook; Yoon, Jong Ho; Hong, Suck Joon

2017-11-01

This study validated the dynamic risk stratification (DRS) system with regard to its association with structural recurrence and risk factors associated with non-excellent responses in patients <45 years with stage I classical papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). This historical cohort study included 598 patients with stage I classical PTC <45 years of age treated with total thyroidectomy followed by radioactive iodine remnant ablation (n = 440), total thyroidectomy without radioactive iodine remnant ablation (n = 23), and thyroid lobectomy alone (n = 135). The median follow-up period was 123 months. Structural recurrence occurred in 4.2% (n = 18/432) of the patients with an excellent response, 17.1% (18/105) of patients with an indeterminate response, 44.7% (17/38) of patients with a biochemically incomplete response, and 82.6% (19/23) of patients with a structurally incomplete response (p < 0.001) during the follow-up. The disease-free survival curves of each response showed significant differences (p < 0.001). Extensive extrathyroidal extension and extranodal extension were the independent risk factors associated with non-excellent response (p < 0.05). DRS may reduce unnecessary additional treatments by reclassifying initial risk estimates of structural recurrence. Furthermore, applying the risk factors associated with non-excellent response to initial therapy may be a more useful and viable surrogate of the risk for structural recurrence in stage I PTC patients <45 years of age.

Effect of Neurocognition and Concussion on Musculoskeletal Injury Risk

PubMed Central

Herman, Daniel C.; Zaremski, Jason L.; Vincent, Heather K.; Vincent, Kevin R.

2015-01-01

Research regarding musculoskeletal injury risk has focused primarily on anatomical, neuromuscular, hormonal, and environmental risk factors; however, subsequent injury risk screening and intervention programs have been largely limited to neuromuscular factors and have faced challenges in both implementation and efficacy. Recent studies indicate that poor neurocognitive performance, either at baseline or in the aftermath of a concussion, is associated with elevated risk of musculoskeletal injury. Despite the relatively limited current understanding regarding the nature of the relationship between different aspects of neurocognitive performance and musculoskeletal injury risk, this is a promising area of research that may yield significant advances in musculoskeletal injury risk stratification, rehabilitation, and prevention. PMID:25968852

Systemic risk score evaluation in ischemic stroke patients (SCALA): a prospective cross sectional study in 85 German stroke units.

PubMed

Weimar, Christian; Goertler, Michael; Röther, Joachim; Ringelstein, E Bernd; Darius, Harald; Nabavi, Darius Günther; Kim, In-Ha; Theobald, Karlheinz; Diener, Han-Christoph

2007-11-01

Stratification of patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA) or ischemic stroke (IS) by risk of recurrent stroke can contribute to optimized secondary prevention. We therefore aimed to assess cardiovascular risk factor profiles of consecutive patients hospitalized with TIA/IS to stratify the risk of recurrent stroke according to the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) and of future cardiovascular events according to the ankle brachial index (ABI) as a marker of generalized atherosclerosis In this cross-sectional observational study, 85 neurological stroke units throughout Germany documented cardiovascular risk factor profiles of 10 consecutive TIA/IS patients on standardized questionnaires. Screening for PAD was done with Doppler ultrasonography to calculate the ABI. A total of 852 patients (57% men) with a mean age of 67+/-12.4 years were included of whom 82.9 % had IS. The median National Institutes of Health stroke sum score was 4 (TIA: 1). Arterial hypertension was reported in 71%, diabetes mellitus in 26%, clinical PAD in 10%, and an ABI < or = 0.9 in 51%. An ESRS > or = 3 was observed in 58%, which in two previous retrospective analyses corresponded to a recurrent stroke risk of > or = 4%/year. The correlation between the ESRS and the ABI was low (r = 0.21). A high proportion of patients had asymptomatic atherosclerotic disease and a considerable risk of recurrent stroke according to the ABI and ESRS category. The prognostic accuracy as well as the potential benefit of various risk stratification scores in secondary stroke prevention require validation in a larger prospective study.

Dynamic TIMI Risk Score for STEMI

PubMed Central

Amin, Sameer T.; Morrow, David A.; Braunwald, Eugene; Sloan, Sarah; Contant, Charles; Murphy, Sabina; Antman, Elliott M.

2013-01-01

Background Although there are multiple methods of risk stratification for ST‐elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), this study presents a prospectively validated method for reclassification of patients based on in‐hospital events. A dynamic risk score provides an initial risk stratification and reassessment at discharge. Methods and Results The dynamic TIMI risk score for STEMI was derived in ExTRACT‐TIMI 25 and validated in TRITON‐TIMI 38. Baseline variables were from the original TIMI risk score for STEMI. New variables were major clinical events occurring during the index hospitalization. Each variable was tested individually in a univariate Cox proportional hazards regression. Variables with P<0.05 were incorporated into a full multivariable Cox model to assess the risk of death at 1 year. Each variable was assigned an integer value based on the odds ratio, and the final score was the sum of these values. The dynamic score included the development of in‐hospital MI, arrhythmia, major bleed, stroke, congestive heart failure, recurrent ischemia, and renal failure. The C‐statistic produced by the dynamic score in the derivation database was 0.76, with a net reclassification improvement (NRI) of 0.33 (P<0.0001) from the inclusion of dynamic events to the original TIMI risk score. In the validation database, the C‐statistic was 0.81, with a NRI of 0.35 (P=0.01). Conclusions This score is a prospectively derived, validated means of estimating 1‐year mortality of STEMI at hospital discharge and can serve as a clinically useful tool. By incorporating events during the index hospitalization, it can better define risk and help to guide treatment decisions. PMID:23525425

Dynamic TIMI risk score for STEMI.

PubMed

Amin, Sameer T; Morrow, David A; Braunwald, Eugene; Sloan, Sarah; Contant, Charles; Murphy, Sabina; Antman, Elliott M

2013-01-29

Although there are multiple methods of risk stratification for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), this study presents a prospectively validated method for reclassification of patients based on in-hospital events. A dynamic risk score provides an initial risk stratification and reassessment at discharge. The dynamic TIMI risk score for STEMI was derived in ExTRACT-TIMI 25 and validated in TRITON-TIMI 38. Baseline variables were from the original TIMI risk score for STEMI. New variables were major clinical events occurring during the index hospitalization. Each variable was tested individually in a univariate Cox proportional hazards regression. Variables with P<0.05 were incorporated into a full multivariable Cox model to assess the risk of death at 1 year. Each variable was assigned an integer value based on the odds ratio, and the final score was the sum of these values. The dynamic score included the development of in-hospital MI, arrhythmia, major bleed, stroke, congestive heart failure, recurrent ischemia, and renal failure. The C-statistic produced by the dynamic score in the derivation database was 0.76, with a net reclassification improvement (NRI) of 0.33 (P<0.0001) from the inclusion of dynamic events to the original TIMI risk score. In the validation database, the C-statistic was 0.81, with a NRI of 0.35 (P=0.01). This score is a prospectively derived, validated means of estimating 1-year mortality of STEMI at hospital discharge and can serve as a clinically useful tool. By incorporating events during the index hospitalization, it can better define risk and help to guide treatment decisions.

External Validation of the HERNIAscore: An Observational Study.

PubMed

Cherla, Deepa V; Moses, Maya L; Mueck, Krislynn M; Hannon, Craig; Ko, Tien C; Kao, Lillian S; Liang, Mike K

2017-09-01

The HERNIAscore is a ventral incisional hernia (VIH) risk assessment tool that uses only preoperative variables and predictable intraoperative variables. The aim of this study was to validate and modify, if needed, the HERNIAscore in an external dataset. This was a retrospective observational study of all patients undergoing resection for gastrointestinal malignancy from 2011 through 2015 at a safety-net hospital. The primary end point was clinical postoperative VIH. Patients were stratified into low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk groups based on HERNIAscore. A revised HERNIAscore was calculated with the addition of earlier abdominal operation as a categorical variable. Cox regression of incisional hernia with stratification by risk class was performed. Incidence rates of clinical VIH formation within each risk class were also calculated. Two hundred and forty-seven patents were enrolled. On Cox regression, in addition to the 3 variables of the HERNIAscore (BMI, COPD, and incision length), earlier abdominal operation was also predictive of VIH. The revised HERNIAscore demonstrated improved predictive accuracy for clinical VIH. Although the original HERNIAscore effectively stratified the risk of an incisional radiographic VIH developing, the revised HERNIAscore provided a statistically significant stratification for both clinical and radiographic VIHs in this patient cohort. We have externally validated and improved the HERNIAscore. The revised HERNIAscore uses BMI, incision length, COPD, and earlier abdominal operation to predict risk of postoperative incisional hernia. Future research should assess methods to prevent incisional hernias in moderate-to-high risk patients. Copyright © 2017 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Asian validation of the TIMI risk score for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Selvarajah, Sharmini; Fong, Alan Yean Yip; Selvaraj, Gunavathy; Haniff, Jamaiyah; Uiterwaal, Cuno S P M; Bots, Michiel L

2012-01-01

Risk stratification in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is important, such that the most resource intensive strategy is used to achieve the greatest clinical benefit. This is essential in developing countries with wide variation in health care facilities, scarce resources and increasing burden of cardiovascular diseases. This study sought to validate the Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score for STEMI in a multi-ethnic developing country. Data from a national, prospective, observational registry of acute coronary syndromes was used. The TIMI risk score was evaluated in 4701 patients who presented with STEMI. Model discrimination and calibration was tested in the overall population and in subgroups of patients that were at higher risk of mortality; i.e., diabetics and those with renal impairment. Compared to the TIMI population, this study population was younger, had more chronic conditions, more severe index events and received treatment later. The TIMI risk score was strongly associated with 30-day mortality. Discrimination was good for the overall study population (c statistic 0.785) and in the high risk subgroups; diabetics (c statistic 0.764) and renal impairment (c statistic 0.761). Calibration was good for the overall study population and diabetics, with χ2 goodness of fit test p value of 0.936 and 0.983 respectively, but poor for those with renal impairment, χ2 goodness of fit test p value of 0.006. The TIMI risk score is valid and can be used for risk stratification of STEMI patients for better targeted treatment.

Coronary risk assessment by point-based vs. equation-based Framingham models: significant implications for clinical care.

PubMed

Gordon, William J; Polansky, Jesse M; Boscardin, W John; Fung, Kathy Z; Steinman, Michael A

2010-11-01

US cholesterol guidelines use original and simplified versions of the Framingham model to estimate future coronary risk and thereby classify patients into risk groups with different treatment strategies. We sought to compare risk estimates and risk group classification generated by the original, complex Framingham model and the simplified, point-based version. We assessed 2,543 subjects age 20-79 from the 2001-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) for whom Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP-III) guidelines recommend formal risk stratification. For each subject, we calculated the 10-year risk of major coronary events using the original and point-based Framingham models, and then compared differences in these risk estimates and whether these differences would place subjects into different ATP-III risk groups (<10% risk, 10-20% risk, or >20% risk). Using standard procedures, all analyses were adjusted for survey weights, clustering, and stratification to make our results nationally representative. Among 39 million eligible adults, the original Framingham model categorized 71% of subjects as having "moderate" risk (<10% risk of a major coronary event in the next 10 years), 22% as having "moderately high" (10-20%) risk, and 7% as having "high" (>20%) risk. Estimates of coronary risk by the original and point-based models often differed substantially. The point-based system classified 15% of adults (5.7 million) into different risk groups than the original model, with 10% (3.9 million) misclassified into higher risk groups and 5% (1.8 million) into lower risk groups, for a net impact of classifying 2.1 million adults into higher risk groups. These risk group misclassifications would impact guideline-recommended drug treatment strategies for 25-46% of affected subjects. Patterns of misclassifications varied significantly by gender, age, and underlying CHD risk. Compared to the original Framingham model, the point-based version misclassifies millions of Americans into risk groups for which guidelines recommend different treatment strategies.

[Cardiovascular risk by Framingham and SCORE in patients 40-65 years old].

PubMed

González, Carmen; Rodilla, Enrique; Costa, José A; Justicia, Jorge; Pascual, José M

2006-04-15

The aim of this study was to compare the clinical and treatment implications of 2 cardiovascular risk stratification systems in a population of patients 40-65 years old. 929 non diabetic patients (40-65 years old) (51% female) with no evidence of previous cardiovascular disease were included in the study. The risk of cardiovascular death was assessed with the charts of the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), and coronary risk by the Framingham function (National Cholesterol Education Program Expert Panel on Detection, Evaluation and Treatment of High Blood Cholesterol in Adults -NCEP-ATP-III-). Patients were considered of high risk if risk of cardiovascular death was >or= 5% and coronary risk was > 20%, respectively. 4.1% of patients were considered as high risk by SCORE and 2.5% by Framingham. Only 0.2% of females were classified as high risk with either system. 8.2% and 4.8% of male population were considered as high risk by SCORE and Framingham, respectively. There was a low level of concordance between both systems. Patients classified as high risk by SCORE but not by Framingham were older, smoke less and had a better lipid profile. According to European Guidelines 28% of male and 23% of female were candidates to hypolipemic treatment, that proportion was higher, 43% of males and 28% of females, by NCEP-ATP-III guidelines. In Spanish patients 40-65 years old, SCORE charts almost duplicate the number of high risk individuals compared to Framingham. although the number of patients candidates to hypolipemic treatment is lower with the European than ATP-III guidelines. Differences were more evident in male.

Survival of patients with symptom- and screening-detected colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Brenner, Hermann; Jansen, Lina; Ulrich, Alexis; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hoffmeister, Michael

2016-07-12

An increasing proportion of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients are diagnosed by screening rather than symptoms. We aimed to assess and compare prognosis of patients with screen-detected CRC and symptom-detected CRC. Overall and CRC specific mortality over a median follow-up of 4.8 years was assessed according to mode of diagnosis (symptoms, screening colonoscopy, fecal occult blood test [FOBT], other) in a multi-center cohort of 2,450 CRC patients aged 50-79 years recruited in Germany in 2003-2010. 68%, 11% and 10% were detected by symptoms, screening colonoscopy and FOBT, respectively. The screen-detected cancers had a more favorable stage distribution than the symptom-detected cancers (68% versus 50% in stage I or II). Age- and sex adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of total mortality with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) compared to symptom-detected cancers were 0.35 (0.24-0.50) and 0.36 (0.25-0.53) for screening colonoscopy and FOBT detected CRCs, respectively. HRs were only slightly attenuated and remained highly significant after adjustment for stage and multiple other covariates (0.50 (0.34-0.73) and 0.54 (0.37-0.80), respectively). Even stronger associations were seen for CRC specific mortality. Patients with screen-detected stage III CRC had as good CRC specific survival as patients with symptom-detected stage I or II CRC. Patients with screen-detected CRC have a very good prognosis far beyond the level explained by their more favorable stage distribution. Mode of detection is an important, easy-to-obtain proxy indicator for favorable diagnosis beyond earlier stage at diagnosis and as such may be useful for risk stratification in treatment decisions.

Prognostic significance of ventricular late potentials in patients with pulmonary sarcoidosis.

PubMed

Yodogawa, Kenji; Seino, Yoshihiko; Ohara, Toshihiko; Iwasaki, Yu-Ki; Hayashi, Meiso; Miyauchi, Yasushi; Azuma, Arata; Shimizu, Wataru

2018-06-01

Early detection of cardiac involvement in sarcoidosis is difficult but essential to achieve optimal treatment. Signal-averaged electrocardiography (SAECG) can detect subtle cardiac electrical abnormalities termed late potentials (LPs) and would be useful for the early diagnosis of cardiac involvement. This study aims to investigate the prognostic significance of LP in patients with pulmonary sarcoidosis. We prospectively studied 74 patients with pulmonary sarcoidosis without overt electrocardiographic abnormalities. All participants underwent SAECG, cardiac echocardiography, and 24-hour ambulatory Holter monitoring. Serum angiotensin-converting enzyme and B-type natriuretic peptide levels were also evaluated. We followed these patients for the evaluation of incidence of cardiac events including cardiac death, arrhythmias, and heart failure requiring hospital admission. Of the studied population, 29 patients (39.2%) had detectable LP. During a mean follow-up period of 9.8 years, 8 patients with LPs had cardiovascular events, including development of complete atrioventricular block (n = 4), ventricular tachycardia (n = 2), and heart failure (n = 2). Meanwhile, only 1 of 45 patients without LP developed cardiac event (heart failure). Multivariate analyses revealed that LPs were associated with an increased risk of developing cardiac events (hazard ratio 9.66; 95% confidence interval 1.20-78.01; P = .033) whereas age, sex, serum angiotensin-converting enzyme and B-type natriuretic peptide levels, number of premature ventricular contractions on 24-hour Holter monitoring, and echocardiographic parameters were not associated with subsequent cardiac events. SAECG might possibly be useful for the early detection of cardiac sarcoidosis and, if independently validated, could eventually be considered as a screening test for further risk stratification. Copyright © 2018 Heart Rhythm Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The physical phenotype of frailty for risk stratification of older medical inpatients.

PubMed

Forti, P; Maioli, F; Zagni, E; Lucassenn, T; Montanari, L; Maltoni, B; Luca Pirazzoli, G; Bianchi, G; Zoli, M

2014-12-01

To determine the usefulness of physical phenotype of frailty, cognitive impairment, and serum albumin for risk stratification of elderly medical impatients. Prospective, observational cohort study. A general internal medicine unit of a university hospital in Italy. Inpatients with an average age of 80.8 ± 7.5 yr (N = 470). Frailty was defined using the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures Index, a parsimonious version of the physical phenotype (two of the following markers: weight loss, inability to rise five times from a chair, and exhaustion). Two frailty markers from non-physical dimensions were also evaluated: cognitive impairment (Mini-Cog score < 3) and low serum albumin on ward admission (< 3,5 gr/dl). Logistic regression adjusted for preadmission and admission-related confounders was used to investigate whether the physical phenotype of frailty and the two non-physical markers were associated with ward length of stay and unfavorable discharge (death plus any other ward discharge disposition different from direct return home). Areas Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUCs) and Likelihood Ratios (LRs) were used for evaluation of discriminatory ability and clinical usefulness of significant predictors. The physical phenotype of frailty was associated with both study outcomes (p < 0.010) but the association was mainly mediated by chair standing ability. Non-physical markers were associated only with unfavourable discharge (p < 0.001). All of these predictors, either alone or in combination, had poor discriminatory ability (AUCs < 0.70) and poor clinical usefulness (+LRs near 1) for the study outcomes. The physical phenotype of frailty appears of limited clinical use for risk stratification of older medical inpatients. Combination with markers from non-physical dimensions does not improve its prognostic abilities.

Mental health in primary care: an evaluation using the Item Response Theory.

PubMed

Rocha, Hugo André da; Santos, Alaneir de Fátima Dos; Reis, Ilka Afonso; Santos, Marcos Antônio da Cunha; Cherchiglia, Mariângela Leal

2018-01-01

OBJECTIVE To determine the items of the Brazilian National Program for Improving Access and Quality of Primary Care that better evaluate the capacity to provide mental health care. METHODS This is a cross-sectional study carried out using the Graded Response Model of the Item Response Theory using secondary data from the second cycle of the National Program for Improving Access and Quality of Primary Care, which evaluates 30,523 primary care teams in the period from 2013 to 2014 in Brazil. The internal consistency, correlation between items, and correlation between items and the total score were tested using the Cronbach's alpha, Spearman's correlation, and point biserial coefficients, respectively. The assumptions of unidimensionality and local independence of the items were tested. Word clouds were used as one way to present the results. RESULTS The items with the greatest ability to discriminate were scheduling of the agenda according to risk stratification, keeping of records of the most serious cases of users in psychological distress, and provision of group care. The items that required a higher level of mental health care in the parameter of location were the provision of any type of group care and the provision of educational and mental health promotion activities. Total Cronbach's alpha coefficient was 0.87. The items that obtained the highest correlation with total score were the recording of the most serious cases of users in psychological distress and scheduling of the agenda according to risk stratification. The final scores obtained oscillated between -2.07 (minimum) and 1.95 (maximum). CONCLUSIONS There are important aspects in the discrimination of the capacity to provide mental health care by primary health care teams: risk stratification for care management, follow-up of the most serious cases, group care, and preventive and health promotion actions.

Prognostic value of predischarge electrocardiographic measurement of infarct size after thrombolysis: insights from GUSTO I Economics and Quality of Life substudy.

PubMed

Barbagelata, Alejandro; Califf, Robert M; Sgarbossa, Elena B; Knight, David; Mark, Daniel B; Granger, Christopher B; Armstrong, Paul W; Elizari, Marcelo; Birnbaum, Yochai; Grinfeld, Liliana R; Ohman, E Magnus; Wagner, Galen S

2004-11-01

Current methods for risk stratification after acute myocardial infarction (MI) include several noninvasive studies. In this cost-containment era, the development of low-cost means should be encouraged. We assessed the ability of an electrocardiogram (ECG) MI-sizing score to predict outcomes in patients enrolled in the Economics and Quality of Life (EQOL) sub study of the Global Utilization of Streptokinase and Tissue plasminogen activator for Occluded coronary arteries -I (GUSTO-I) trial. We classified patients by electrocardiographic Selvester QRS score at hospital discharge: those with a score 0-9 versus > or =10. Endpoints were 30-day and 1-year mortality, resource use, and quality-of-life measures. Patients with a QRS score <10 were well-matched with those with QRS score > or =10 with the exception of a trend to more anterior MI in the higher scored group. Patients with QRS score > or =10 had increased risk of death at 30-days (8.9% vs. 2.9% P < .001), and this difference persisted at 1 year (12.6% vs. 5.4%, P = .001). Recurrent chest pain, use of angiography, and angioplasty were similar during follow-up. However, there was a trend toward less coronary bypass surgery in patients with a QRS score > or =10. Readmission rates were higher at 30 days but similar at 1 year. Stratification of patients after acute MI by a simple measure of MI size identifies populations with different long-term prognoses; patients with a QRS score > or =10 (approximately 30% of the left ventricle infarcted) at discharge have poorer outcomes in both the short- and long-term. The standard 12-lead ECG provides a simple, economical means of risk stratification at discharge.

Pretransplantation Cystatin C, but not Creatinine, Predicts 30-day Cardiovascular Events and Mortality in Liver Transplant Recipients With Normal Serum Creatinine Levels.

PubMed

Kwon, H-M; Moon, Y-J; Jung, K-W; Jun, I-G; Song, J-G; Hwang, G-S

2018-05-01

The connection between renal dysfunction and cardiovascular dysfunction has been consistently shown. In patients with liver cirrhosis, renal dysfunction shows a tight correlation with prognosis after liver transplantation (LT); therefore, precise renal assessment is mandatory. Cystatin C, a sensitive biomarker for assessing renal function, has shown superiority in detecting mild renal dysfunction compared to classical biomarker creatinine. In this study, we aimed to compare cystatin C and creatinine in predicting 30-day major cardiovascular events (MACE) and all-cause mortality in LT recipients with normal serum creatinine levels. Between May 2010 and October 2015, 1181 LT recipients (mean Model for End-stage Liver Disease score 12.1) with pretransplantation creatinine level ≤1.4 mg/dL were divided into tertiles according to each renal biomarker. The 30-day MACE was a composite of troponin I >0.2 ng/mL, arrhythmia, congestive heart failure, death, and cerebrovascular events. The highest tertile of cystatin C (≥0.95 mg/L) was associated with a higher risk for a 30-day MACE event (odds ratio: 1.62; 95% confidence interval: 1.07 to 2.48) and higher risk of death (hazard ratio: 1.96; 95% confidence interval: 1.04 to 3.67) than the lowest tertile (<0.74 mg/L) after multivariate adjustments. However, the highest tertile of creatinine level showed neither increasing MACE event rate nor worse survival rate compared with the lowest tertile (both insignificant after multivariate adjustment). Pretransplantation cystatin C is superior in risk prediction of MACE and all-cause mortality in LT recipients with normal creatinine, compared to creatinine. It would assist further risk stratification which may not be detected with creatinine. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Value of Donor–Specific Anti–HLA Antibody Monitoring and Characterization for Risk Stratification of Kidney Allograft Loss

PubMed Central

Viglietti, Denis; Loupy, Alexandre; Vernerey, Dewi; Bentlejewski, Carol; Gosset, Clément; Aubert, Olivier; Duong van Huyen, Jean-Paul; Jouven, Xavier; Legendre, Christophe; Glotz, Denis; Zeevi, Adriana

2017-01-01

The diagnosis system for allograft loss lacks accurate individual risk stratification on the basis of donor–specific anti–HLA antibody (anti-HLA DSA) characterization. We investigated whether systematic monitoring of DSA with extensive characterization increases performance in predicting kidney allograft loss. This prospective study included 851 kidney recipients transplanted between 2008 and 2010 who were systematically screened for DSA at transplant, 1 and 2 years post-transplant, and the time of post–transplant clinical events. We assessed DSA characteristics and performed systematic allograft biopsies at the time of post–transplant serum evaluation. At transplant, 110 (12.9%) patients had DSAs; post-transplant screening identified 186 (21.9%) DSA-positive patients. Post–transplant DSA monitoring improved the prediction of allograft loss when added to a model that included traditional determinants of allograft loss (increase in c statistic from 0.67; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.62 to 0.73 to 0.72; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.77). Addition of DSA IgG3 positivity or C1q binding capacity increased discrimination performance of the traditional model at transplant and post-transplant. Compared with DSA mean fluorescence intensity, DSA IgG3 positivity and C1q binding capacity adequately reclassified patients at lower or higher risk for allograft loss at transplant (category–free net reclassification index, 1.30; 95% CI, 0.94 to 1.67; P<0.001 and 0.93; 95% CI, 0.49 to 1.36; P<0.001, respectively) and post-transplant (category–free net reclassification index, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.62; P<0.001 and 0.95; 95% CI, 0.62 to 1.28; P<0.001, respectively). Thus, pre– and post–transplant DSA monitoring and characterization may improve individual risk stratification for kidney allograft loss. PMID:27493255

Predictors associated with MRI surveillance screening in women with a personal history of unilateral breast cancer but without a genetic predisposition for future contralateral breast cancer.

PubMed

Hegde, John V; Wang, Xiaoyan; Attai, Deanna J; DiNome, Maggie L; Kusske, Amy; Hoyt, Anne C; Hurvitz, Sara A; Weidhaas, Joanne B; Steinberg, Michael L; McCloskey, Susan A

2017-11-01

For women with a personal history of breast cancer (PHBC), no validated mechanisms exist to calculate future contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk. The Manchester risk stratification guidelines were developed to evaluate CBC risk in women with a PHBC, primarily for surgical decision making. This tool may be informative for the use of MRI screening, as CBC risk is an assumed consideration for high-risk surveillance. Three hundred twenty-two women with a PHBC were treated with unilateral surgery within our multidisciplinary breast clinic. We calculated lifetime CBC risk using the Manchester tool, which incorporates age at diagnosis, family history, genetic mutation status, estrogen receptor positivity, and endocrine therapy use. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses (UVA/MVA) were performed, evaluating whether CBC risk predicted MRI surveillance. For women with invasive disease undergoing MRI surveillance, 66% had low, 23% above-average, and 11% moderate/high risk for CBC. On MVA, previous mammography-occult breast cancer [odds ratio (OR) 18.95, p < 0.0001], endocrine therapy use (OR 3.89, p = 0.009), dense breast tissue (OR 3.69, p = 0.0007), mastectomy versus lumpectomy (OR 3.12, p = 0.0041), and CBC risk (OR 3.17 for every 10% increase, p = 0.0002) were associated with MRI surveillance. No pathologic factors increasing ipsilateral breast cancer recurrence were significant on MVA. Although CBC risk predicted MRI surveillance, 89% with invasive disease undergoing MRI had <20% calculated CBC risk. Concerns related to future breast cancer detectability (dense breasts and/or previous mammography-occult disease) predominate decision making. Pathologic factors important for determining ipsilateral recurrence risk, aside from age, were not associated with MRI surveillance.

Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome: a single exercise stress test might be misleading.

PubMed

Salavitabar, Arash; Silver, Eric S; Liberman, Leonardo

2017-05-01

Risk stratification of patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome for sudden death is a complex process, particularly in understanding the utility of the repeat exercise stress test. We report a case of an 18-year-old patient who was found to have a high-risk pathway by both invasive and exercise stress testing after an initial exercise stress test showing beat-to-beat loss of pre-excitation.

Using procalcitonin-guided algorithms to improve antimicrobial therapy in ICU patients with respiratory infections and sepsis.

PubMed

Schuetz, Philipp; Raad, Issam; Amin, Devendra N

2013-10-01

In patients with systemic bacterial infections hospitalized in ICUs, the inflammatory biomarker procalcitonin (PCT) has been shown to aid diagnosis, antibiotic stewardship, and risk stratification. Our aim is to summarize recent evidence about the utility of PCT in the critical care setting and discuss the potential benefits and limitations of PCT when used for clinical decision-making. A growing body of evidence supports PCT use to differentiate bacterial from viral respiratory infections (including influenza), to help risk stratify patients, and to guide decisions about optimal duration of antibiotic therapy. Different PCT protocols were evaluated for these and similar purposes in randomized controlled trials in patients with varying severities of predominantly respiratory tract infection and sepsis. These trials demonstrated effectiveness of monitoring PCT to de-escalate antibiotic treatment earlier without increasing rates of relapsing infections or other adverse outcomes. Although serial PCT measurement has shown value in risk stratification of ICU patients, PCT-guided antibiotic escalation protocols have not yet shown benefit for patients. Inclusion of PCT data in clinical algorithms improves individualized decision-making regarding antibiotic treatment in patients in critical care for respiratory infections or sepsis. Future research should focus on use of repeated PCT measurements to risk-stratify patients and guide treatment to improve their outcomes.

New Insight Into the Biology, Risk Stratification, and Targeted Treatment of Myelodysplastic Syndromes.

PubMed

Haider, Mintallah; Duncavage, Eric J; Afaneh, Khalid F; Bejar, Rafael; List, Alan F

2017-01-01

In myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), somatic mutations occur in five major categories: RNA splicing, DNA methylation, activated cell signaling, myeloid transcription factors, and chromatin modifiers. Although many MDS cases harbor more than one somatic mutation, in general, there is mutual exclusivity of mutated genes within a class. In addition to the prognostic significance of individual somatic mutations, more somatic mutations in MDS have been associated with poor prognosis. Prognostic assessment remains a critical component of the personalization of care for patient with MDS because treatment is highly risk adapted. Multiple methods for risk stratification are available with the revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R), currently considered the gold standard. Increasing access to myeloid gene panels and greater evidence for the diagnostic and predictive value of somatic mutations will soon make sequencing part of the standard evaluation of patients with MDS. In the absence of formal guidelines for their prognostic use, well-validated mutations can still refine estimates of risk made with the IPSS-R. Not only are somatic gene mutations advantageous in understanding the biology of MDS and prognosis, they also offer potential as biomarkers and targets for the treatment of patients with MDS. Examples include deletion 5q, spliceosome complex gene mutations, and TP53 mutations.

PAS positivity of erythroid precursor cells is associated with a poor prognosis in newly diagnosed myelodysplastic syndrome patients.

PubMed

Masuda, Kenta; Shiga, Shuichi; Kawabata, Hiroshi; Takaori-Kondo, Akifumi; Ichiyama, Satoshi; Kamikubo, Yasuhiko

2018-07-01

Myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) is a group of clonal stem cell disorders characterized by hematopoietic insufficiency. The accurate risk stratification of patients with MDS is essential for selection of appropriate therapies. We herein conducted a retrospective cohort study to examine the prognostic value of periodic acid-Schiff (PAS) reaction-positive erythroblasts in MDS patients. We examined the PAS positivity of the bone marrow erythroblasts of 144 patients newly diagnosed with MDS; 26 (18.1%) of them had PAS-positive erythroblasts, whereas 118 (81.9%) did not. The PAS-positive group showed significantly poorer karyotypes as defined in the revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R) and higher scores in age-adjusted IPSS-R (IPSS-RA) than the PAS-negative group. Overall survival (OS) and leukemia-free survival (LFS) were also significantly shorter in the PAS-positive group than in the PAS-negative group. Similar results were obtained when only high- and very high risk groups were analyzed using IPSS-RA. This retrospective study suggested that the PAS positivity of erythroblasts is an additional prognostic factor combined with other risk scores for OS and LFS in MDS, and our results may contribute to improved clinical decision-making and rapid risk stratification.

Scores for post-myocardial infarction risk stratification in the community.

PubMed

Singh, Mandeep; Reeder, Guy S; Jacobsen, Steven J; Weston, Susan; Killian, Jill; Roger, Véronique L

2002-10-29

Several scores, most of which were derived from clinical trials, have been proposed for stratifying risk after myocardial infarctions (MIs). Little is known about their generalizability to the community, their respective advantages, and whether the ejection fraction (EF) adds prognostic information to the scores. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) and Predicting Risk of Death in Cardiac Disease Tool (PREDICT) scores in a geographically defined MI cohort and determine the incremental value of EF for risk stratification. MIs occurring in Olmsted County were validated with the use of standardized criteria and stratified with the ECG into ST-segment elevation (STEMI) and non-ST-segment elevation (NSTEMI) MI. Logistic regression examined the discriminant accuracy of the TIMI and PREDICT scores to predict death and recurrent MI and assessed the incremental value of the EF. After 6.3+/-4.7 years, survival was similar for the 562 STEMIs and 717 NSTEMIs. The discriminant accuracy of the TIMI score was good in STEMI but only fair in NSTEMI. Across time and end points, irrespective of reperfusion therapy, the discriminant accuracy of the PREDICT score was consistently superior to that of the TIMI scores, largely because PREDICT includes comorbidity; EF provided incremental information over that provided by the scores and comorbidity. In the community, comorbidity and EF convey important prognostic information and should be included in approaches for stratifying risk after MI.

The Kid-Short Marfan Score (Kid-SMS) - an easy executable risk score for suspected paediatric patients with Marfan syndrome.

PubMed

Mueller, Goetz C; Stark, Veronika; Steiner, Kristoffer; Weil, Jochen; von Kodolitsch, Yskert; Mir, Thomas S

2013-02-01

Due to age-dependent manifestations, diagnosis of Marfan syndrome (MFS) in children and adolescents is sophisticated. Although revised Ghent criteria is a major step forward, its utility in children is still restricted due to expensive and technically advanced diagnostics. As early diagnosis submits long-term benefits concerning prognosis, the need of an appropriate diagnostic tool for risk stratification of suspected paediatric patients with Marfan is justified. Sixty paediatric patients with Marfan were subject to a standardized diagnostic programme. All clinical symptoms of the revised Ghent nosology were analysed concerning age at first clinical manifestation, prevalence and likelihood ratio for MFS. Symptoms with early onset, high prevalence and high positive likelihood ratio were identified and combined for a risk score called Kid-Short Marfan Score (Kid-SMS). Three risk categories for suspicion of Marfan syndrome were developed. Finally, the Kid-SMS was operated in 130 paediatric patients with suspected MFS. Kid-SMS identified significantly more suspected patients with Marfan compared with Ghent nosology, revised Ghent and genetics alone without oversensitivity. Whereas diagnosis of MFS in childhood is sophisticated, Kid-SMS is a useful tool for risk stratification of suspected paediatric patients with Marfan by easy executable diagnostics, especially for paediatricians and paediatric cardiologists. ©2012 The Author(s)/Acta Paediatrica ©2012 Foundation Acta Paediatrica.

Multimodality imaging evaluation of Chagas disease: an expert consensus of Brazilian Cardiovascular Imaging Department (DIC) and the European Association of Cardiovascular Imaging (EACVI).

PubMed

Nunes, Maria Carmo P; Badano, Luigi Paolo; Marin-Neto, J Antonio; Edvardsen, Thor; Fernández-Golfín, Covadonga; Bucciarelli-Ducci, Chiara; Popescu, Bogdan A; Underwood, Richard; Habib, Gilbert; Zamorano, Jose Luis; Saraiva, Roberto Magalhães; Sabino, Ester Cerdeira; Botoni, Fernando A; Barbosa, Márcia Melo; Barros, Marcio Vinicius L; Falqueto, Eduardo; Simões, Marcus Vinicius; Schmidt, André; Rochitte, Carlos Eduardo; Rocha, Manoel Otávio Costa; Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz Pinho; Lancellotti, Patrizio

2018-04-01

To develop a document by Brazilian Cardiovascular Imaging Department (DIC) and the European Association of Cardiovascular Imaging (EACVI) to review and summarize the most recent evidences about the non-invasive assessment of patients with Chagas disease, with the intent to set up a framework for standardized cardiovascular imaging to assess cardiovascular morphologic and functional disturbances, as well as to guide the subsequent process of clinical decision-making. Chagas disease remains one of the most prevalent infectious diseases in Latin America, and has become a health problem in non-endemic countries. Dilated cardiomyopathy is the most severe manifestation of Chagas disease, which causes substantial disability and early mortality in the socially most productive population leading to a significant economical burden. Prompt and correct diagnosis of Chagas disease requires specialized clinical expertise to recognize the unique features of this disease. The appropriate and efficient use of cardiac imaging is pivotal for diagnosing the cardiac involvement in Chagas disease, to stage the disease, assess patients' prognosis and address management. Echocardiography is the most common imaging modality used to assess, and follow-up patients with Chagas disease. The presence of echocardiographic abnormalities is of utmost importance, since it allows to stage patients according to disease progression. In early stages of cardiac involvement, echocardiography may demonstrate segmental left ventricuar wall motion abnormalities, mainly in the basal segments of inferior, inferolateral walls, and the apex, which cannot be attributed to obstructive coronary artery arteries. The prevalence of segmental wall motion abnormalities varies according to the stage of the disease, reaching about 50% in patients with left ventricular dilatation and dysfunction. Speckle tracking echocardiography allows a more precise and quantitative measurement of the regional myocardial function. Since segmental wall motion abnormalities are frequent in Chagas disease, speckle tracking echocardiography may have an important clinical application in these patients, particularly in the indeterminate forms when abnormalities are more subtle. Speckle tracking echocardiography can also quantify the heterogeneity of systolic contraction, which is associated with the risk of arrhythmic events. Three-dimensional (3D) echocardiography is superior to conventional two-dimensional (2D) echocardiography for assessing more accurately the left ventricular apex and thus to detect apical aneurysms and thrombus in patients in whom ventricular foreshortening is suspected by 2D echocardiography. In addition, 3D echocardiography is more accurate than 2D Simpson s biplane rule for assessing left ventricular volumes and function in patients with significant wall motion abnormalities, including aneurysms with distorted ventricular geometry. Contrast echocardiography has the advantage to enhancement of left ventricular endocardial border, allowing for more accurate detection of ventricular aneurysms and thrombus in Chagas disease. Diastolic dysfunction is an important hallmark of Chagas disease even in its early phases. In general, left ventricular diastolic and systolic dysfunction coexist and isolated diastolic dysfunction is uncommon but may be present in patients with the indeterminate form. Right ventricular dysfunction may be detected early in the disease course, but in general, the clinical manifestations occur late at advanced stages of Chagas cardiomyopathy. Several echocardiographic parameters have been used to assess right ventricular function in Chagas disease, including qualitative evaluation, myocardial performance index, tissue Doppler imaging, tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion, and speckle tracking strain. Cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) is useful to assess global and regional left ventricular function in patients with Chagas diseases. Myocardial fibrosis is a striking feature of Chagas cardiomyopathy and late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) is used to detect and quantify the extension of myocardial fibrosis. Myocardial fibrosis might have a role in risk stratification of patients with Chagas disease. Limited data are available regarding right ventricular function assessed by CMR in Chagas disease. Radionuclide ventriculography is used for global biventricular function assessment in patients with suspected or definite cardiac involvement in Chagas disease with suboptimal acoustic window and contraindication to CMR. Myocardial perfusion scintigraphy may improve risk stratification to define cardiac involvement in Chagas disease, especially in the patients with devices who cannot be submitted to CMR and in the clinical setting of Chagas patients whose main complaint is atypical chest pain. Detection of reversible ischemic defects predicts further deterioration of left ventricular systolic function and helps to avoid unnecessary cardiac catheterization and coronary angiography. Cardiac imaging is crucial to detect the cardiac involvement in patients with Chagas disease, stage the disease and stratify patient risk and address management. Unfortunately, most patients live in regions with limited access to imaging methods and point-of-care, simplified protocols, could improve the access of these remote populations to important information that could impact in the clinical management of the disease. Therefore, there are many fields for further research in cardiac imaging in Chagas disease. How to better provide an earlier diagnosis of cardiac involvement and improve patients risk stratification remains to be addressed using different images modalities.

Challenges in the management of breast cancer in low- and middle-income countries.

PubMed

Yip, Cheng-Har; Taib, Nur Aishah

2012-12-01

The incidence of breast cancer is rising in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) due to 'westernization' of risk factors for developing breast cancer. However, survival remains low because of barriers in early detection and optimal access to treatment, which are the two main determinants of breast cancer outcome. A multidisciplinary approach to treatment gives the best results. An accurate diagnosis is dependent on a reliable pathology service, which will provide an adequate pathology report with prognostic and predictor information to allow optimal oncological treatment. Stratification of clinical practice guidelines based on resource level will ensure that women will have access to treatment even in a low-resource setting. Advocacy and civil society play a role in galvanizing the political will required to meet the challenge of providing opportunities for breast cancer control in LMICs. Collaboration between high-income countries and LMICs could be a strategy in facing these challenges.

Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy (ARVC/D): A Systematic Literature Review

PubMed Central

Romero, Jorge; Mejia-Lopez, Eliany; Manrique, Carlos; Lucariello, Richard

2013-01-01

Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy/dysplasia (ARVC/D) is a genetic form of cardiomyopathy (CM) usually transmitted with an autosomal dominant pattern. It primary affects the right ventricle (RV), but may involve the left ventricle (LV) and culminate in biventricular heart failure (HF), life threatening ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death (SCD). It accounts for 11%–22% of cases of SCD in the young athlete population. Pathologically is characterized by myocardial atrophy, fibrofatty replacement and chamber dilation. Diagnosis is often difficult due to the nonspecific nature of the disease and the broad spectrum of phenotypic variations. Therefore consensus diagnostic criteria have been developed and combined electrocardiography, echocardiography, cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMRI) and myocardial biopsy. Early detection, family screening and risk stratification are the cornerstones in the diagnostic evaluation. Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) implantation, ablative procedures and heart transplantation are currently the main therapeutic options. PMID:23761986

ACR-SPR-STR Practice Parameter for the Performance of Cardiac Positron Emission Tomography - Computed Tomography (PET/CT) Imaging.

PubMed

Subramaniam, Rathan M; Janowitz, Warren R; Johnson, Geoffrey B; Lodge, Martin A; Parisi, Marguerite T; Ferguson, Mark R; Hellinger, Jeffrey C; Gladish, Gregory W; Gupta, Narainder K

2017-12-01

This clinical practice parameter has been developed collaboratively by the American College of Radiology (ACR), the Society for Pediatric Radiology (SPR), and the Society of Thoracic Radiology (STR). This document is intended to act as a guide for physicians performing and interpreting positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET/CT) of cardiac diseases in adults and children. The primary value of cardiac PET/CT imaging include evaluation of perfusion, function, viability, inflammation, anatomy, and risk stratification for cardiac-related events such as myocardial infarction and death. Optimum utility of cardiac PET/CT is achieved when images are interpreted in conjunction with clinical information and laboratory data. Measurement of myocardial blood flow, coronary flow reserve and detection of balanced ischemia are significant advantages of cardiac PET perfusion studies. Increasingly cardiac PET/CT is used in diagnosis and treatment response assessment for cardiac sarcoidosis.

The past, current and future of diagnosis and management of pleural disease

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Pleural disease is frequently encountered by the chest physician. Pleural effusions arise as the sequelae of underlying disease processes including pressure/volume imbalances, infection and malignancy. In addition to pleural effusions, persistent air leaks after surgery and bronchopleural fistulae remain a challenge. Our understanding of pleural disease including its diagnosis and management, have made tremendous strides. The introduction of the molecular detection of organism specific infection, risk stratification and improvements in the non-surgical treatment of patients with pleural infection are all within reach and may be the standard of care in the very near future. Malignant pleural effusion management continues to evolve with the introduction of tunneled pleural catheters and procedures combining that and chemical pleurodesis. These advances in the diagnostic and therapeutic evaluation of pleural disease as well as what seems to be an increasing multidisciplinary interest in the space foretell a bright future. PMID:26807281

Relationship between Calcium Score and Myocardial Scintigraphy in the Diagnosis of Coronary Disease

PubMed Central

Siqueira, Fabio Paiva Rossini; Mesquita, Claudio Tinoco; dos Santos, Alair Augusto Sarmet M. Damas; Nacif, Marcelo Souto

2016-01-01

Half the patients with coronary artery disease present with sudden death - or acute infarction as first symptom, making early diagnosis pivotal. Myocardial perfusion scintigraphy is frequently used in the assessment of these patients, but it does not detect the disease without flow restriction, exposes the patient to high levels of radiation and is costly. On the other hand, with less radiological exposure, calcium score is directly correlated to the presence and extension of coronary atherosclerosis, and also to the risk of cardiovascular events. Even though calcium score is a tried-and-true method for stratification of asymptomatic patients, its use is still reduced in this context, since current guidelines are contradictory to its use on symptomatic diseases. The aim of this review is to identify, on patients under investigation for coronary artery disease, the main evidence of the use of calcium score associated with functional evaluation and scintigraphy. PMID:27437867

Urban Poverty and Neighborhood Effects on Crime: Incorporating Spatial and Network Perspectives

PubMed Central

Graif, Corina; Gladfelter, Andrew S.; Matthews, Stephen A.

2015-01-01

Research on neighborhoods and crime is on a remarkable growth trajectory. In this article, we survey important recent developments in the scholarship on neighborhood effects and the spatial stratification of poverty and urban crime. We advance the case that, in understanding the impact of neighborhoods and poverty on crime, sociological and criminological research would benefit from expanding the analytical focus from residential neighborhoods to the network of neighborhoods individuals are exposed to during their daily routine activities. This perspective is supported by reemerging scholarship on activity spaces and macro-level research on inter-neighborhood connections. We highlight work indicating that non-residential contexts add variation in criminogenic exposure, which in turn influence offending behavior and victimization risk. Also, we draw on recent insights from research on gang violence, social and institutional connections, and spatial mismatch, and call for advancements in the scholarship on urban poverty that investigates the salience of inter-neighborhood connections in evaluating the spatial stratification of criminogenic risk for individuals and communities. PMID:27375773

Recent Advances in the Biology and Treatment of T Cell Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia.

PubMed

Hefazi, Mehrdad; Litzow, Mark R

2018-06-15

This article provides an overview of the current knowledge regarding the biology and treatment of T cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (T-ALL) and highlights the most recent findings in this field over the past 5 years. Remarkable progress has been made in the genomic landscape of T-ALL over the past few years. The discovery of activating mutations of NOTCH1 and FBXW7 in a majority of patients has been a seminal observation, with several early phase clinical trials currently exploring these as potential therapeutic targets. Characterization of early T cell precursor ALL, incorporation of minimal residual disease assessment into therapeutic protocols, and use of pediatric-intensive regimens along with judicious use of allogeneic HCT have significantly improved risk stratification and treatment outcomes. Improved risk stratification and the use of novel targeted therapies based on recent genomic discoveries are expected to change the therapeutic landscape of T-ALL and hopefully improve the outcomes of this historically poor prognosis disease.

Developing a risk stratification tool for audit of outcome after surgery for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Tighe, David F; Thomas, Alan J; Sassoon, Isabel; Kinsman, Robin; McGurk, Mark

2017-07-01

Patients treated surgically for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) represent a heterogeneous group. Adjusting for patient case mix and complexity of surgery is essential if reporting outcomes represent surgical performance and quality of care. A case note audit totaling 1075 patients receiving 1218 operations done for HNSCC in 4 cancer networks was completed. Logistic regression, decision tree analysis, an artificial neural network, and Naïve Bayes Classifier were used to adjust for patient case-mix using pertinent preoperative variables. Thirty-day complication rates varied widely (34%-51%; P < .015) between units. The predictive models allowed risk stratification. The artificial neural network demonstrated the best predictive performance (area under the curve [AUC] 0.85). Early postoperative complications are a measurable outcome that can be used to benchmark surgical performance and quality of care. Surgical outcome reporting in national clinical audits should be taking account of the patient case mix. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Management of advanced NK/T-cell lymphoma.

PubMed

Tse, Eric; Kwong, Yok-Lam

2014-09-01

NK/T-cell lymphomas are aggressive malignancies, and the outlook is poor when conventional anthracycline-containing regimens designed for B-cell lymphomas are used. With the advent of L-asparaginase-containing regimens, treatment outcome has significantly improved. L-asparaginase-containing regimens are now considered the standard in the management of NK/T-cell lymphomas. In advanced diseases, however, outcome remains unsatisfactory, with durable remission achieved in only about 50% of cases. Stratification of patients with advanced NK/T-cell lymphomas is needed, so that poor-risk patients can be given additional therapy to improve outcome. Conventional presentation parameters are untested and appear inadequate for prognostication when L-asparaginase-containing regimens are used. Recent evidence suggests that dynamic factors during treatment and interim assessment, including Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA quantification and positron emission tomography computed tomography findings, are more useful in patient stratification. The role of high-dose chemotherapy and haematopoietic stem cell transplantation requires evaluation in an overall risk-adapted treatment algorithm.

Genetic causes of sudden cardiac death in children: inherited arrhythmogenic diseases.

PubMed

Vacanti, Gaetano; Maragna, Riccardo; Priori, Silvia G; Mazzanti, Andrea

2017-10-01

In this chapter we will discuss the most recent and relevant evidences published in the field of inherited arrhythmogenic disorders, focusing on the so called 'channelopathies' that are associated with sudden cardiac death (SCD) in children: long QT syndrome (LQTS), short QT syndrome (SQTS), Brugada syndrome (BrS), and catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia (CPVT). We will discuss the latest diagnostic criteria for channelopathies released by the European Society of Cardiology, the new data on BrS in children and the recent evidence supporting a genotype-specific therapy for LQTS type 3. Moreover, we will present further insights into the risk stratification of the children affected by LQTS, analyzing the role of imaging for the prediction of life-threatening arrhythmias. In addition, we will offer a perspective on how to deal with genetic results in families affected by SCD at very young ages. The selected publications will aid pediatricians in their clinical work when managing little patients with inherited arrhythmias, providing the most recent information for diagnosis, risk stratification, and management.

Clinical and angiographic characteristics of patients likely to have vulnerable plaques: analysis from the PROSPECT study.

PubMed

Bourantas, Christos V; Garcia-Garcia, Hector M; Farooq, Vasim; Maehara, Akiko; Xu, Ke; Généreux, Philippe; Diletti, Roberto; Muramatsu, Takashi; Fahy, Martin; Weisz, Giora; Stone, Gregg W; Serruys, Patrick W

2013-12-01

This study sought to determine the clinical and angiographic variables that would identify patients with high-risk "vulnerable" coronary plaques. In the PROSPECT (Providing Regional Observations to Study Predictors of Events in the Coronary Tree) study, in patients successfully treated for acute coronary syndrome (ACS), plaque composition, plaque burden, and minimal luminal area as detected by 3-vessel radiofrequency intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) imaging were associated with an increased risk of developing future events from untreated atherosclerotic lesions (vulnerable plaques). Whether baseline demographic and angiographic findings can be used to identify patients most likely to have vulnerable coronary plaques has not been examined. On the basis of 3-vessel radiofrequency IVUS imaging, patents in the PROSPECT trial were classified in 2 groups according to whether or not one or more untreated high-risk plaques were present, defined as having ≥2 high-risk features (a thin-cap fibroatheroma, plaque burden ≥70%, and/or minimal luminal area ≤4 mm(2)). The high-risk group (those with one or more high-risk lesions) had higher Framingham risk score (7.5 ± 3.4 vs. 6.9 ± 3.3; p = 0.04), more extensive coronary artery disease, and more nonculprit lesion-related cardiovascular events during the 3-year follow-up (hazard ratio: 2.63; 95% confidence interval: 1.62 to 3.66; p < 0.0001). However, demographic factors had poor discrimination in detecting high-risk patients (area under the curve 0.55), and discrimination was only slightly improved when angiographic variables were entered into the model (area under the curve 0.64). Clinical and angiographic characteristics had poor predictive accuracy in identifying patients with untreated high-risk plaques related to future adverse events. This finding highlights the potential value of comprehensive 3-vessel imaging assessment (either invasive or noninvasive) to evaluate plaque phenotype for more accurate risk stratification of patients admitted with ACS. Copyright © 2013 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Novel Biomarkers for Predicting Cardiovascular Disease in Patients With Diabetes.

PubMed

Retnakaran, Ravi

2018-05-01

It is generally acknowledged that patients with diabetes comprise a high-risk population for the development of cardiovascular disease. However, it is perhaps less well recognized that there actually exists considerable heterogeneity in vascular risk within this patient population, with a sizable subset of individuals seemingly at low risk for major cardiovascular events despite the presence of diabetes. Because traditional clinical risk calculators have shown wide variability in their performance in the setting of diabetes, there exists a need for additional risk predictors in this patient population. In this context, there has been considerable interest in the potential utility of circulating biomarkers as clinical tools that might facilitate risk stratification and thereby guide therapeutic and preventative decision-making. Coupled with the current era of dedicated cardiovascular outcome trials in type 2 diabetes, this interest has spawned a growing literature of recent studies that evaluated potential biomarkers. To date, these studies have identified N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity cardiac troponins, and growth differentiation factor-15 as cardiovascular biomarkers of particular potential in patients with diabetes. Furthermore, recognizing the potential benefit of collective consideration of different biomarkers reflecting distinct pathophysiologic processes that might contribute to the development of cardiovascular disease, there is emerging emphasis on the evaluation of combinations of biomarkers for optimal risk prediction. Although not currently ready for clinical practice, this rapidly-growing topic of biomarker research might ultimately facilitate the goal of individualized risk stratification and thereby enable truly personalized management of diabetes. Copyright © 2017 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Advanced colorectal neoplasia risk stratification by penalized logistic regression.

PubMed

Lin, Yunzhi; Yu, Menggang; Wang, Sijian; Chappell, Richard; Imperiale, Thomas F

2016-08-01

Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of death from cancer in the United States. To facilitate the efficiency of colorectal cancer screening, there is a need to stratify risk for colorectal cancer among the 90% of US residents who are considered "average risk." In this article, we investigate such risk stratification rules for advanced colorectal neoplasia (colorectal cancer and advanced, precancerous polyps). We use a recently completed large cohort study of subjects who underwent a first screening colonoscopy. Logistic regression models have been used in the literature to estimate the risk of advanced colorectal neoplasia based on quantifiable risk factors. However, logistic regression may be prone to overfitting and instability in variable selection. Since most of the risk factors in our study have several categories, it was tempting to collapse these categories into fewer risk groups. We propose a penalized logistic regression method that automatically and simultaneously selects variables, groups categories, and estimates their coefficients by penalizing the [Formula: see text]-norm of both the coefficients and their differences. Hence, it encourages sparsity in the categories, i.e. grouping of the categories, and sparsity in the variables, i.e. variable selection. We apply the penalized logistic regression method to our data. The important variables are selected, with close categories simultaneously grouped, by penalized regression models with and without the interactions terms. The models are validated with 10-fold cross-validation. The receiver operating characteristic curves of the penalized regression models dominate the receiver operating characteristic curve of naive logistic regressions, indicating a superior discriminative performance. © The Author(s) 2013.

Better Indigenous Risk stratification for Cardiac Health study (BIRCH) protocol: rationale and design of a cross-sectional and prospective cohort study to identify novel cardiovascular risk indicators in Aboriginal Australian and Torres Strait Islander adults.

PubMed

Rémond, Marc G W; Stewart, Simon; Carrington, Melinda J; Marwick, Thomas H; Kingwell, Bronwyn A; Meikle, Peter; O'Brien, Darren; Marshall, Nathaniel S; Maguire, Graeme P

2017-08-23

Of the estimated 10-11 year life expectancy gap between Indigenous (Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people) and non-Indigenous Australians, approximately one quarter is attributable to cardiovascular disease (CVD). Risk prediction of CVD is imperfect, but particularly limited for Indigenous Australians. The BIRCH (Better Indigenous Risk stratification for Cardiac Health) project aims to identify and assess existing and novel markers of early disease and risk in Indigenous Australians to optimise health outcomes in this disadvantaged population. It further aims to determine whether these markers are relevant in non-Indigenous Australians. BIRCH is a cross-sectional and prospective cohort study of Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australian adults (≥ 18 years) living in remote, regional and urban locations. Participants will be assessed for CVD risk factors, left ventricular mass and strain via echocardiography, sleep disordered breathing and quality via home-based polysomnography or actigraphy respectively, and plasma lipidomic profiles via mass spectrometry. Outcome data will comprise CVD events and death over a period of five years. Results of BIRCH may increase understanding regarding the factors underlying the increased burden of CVD in Indigenous Australians in this setting. Further, it may identify novel markers of early disease and risk to inform the development of more accurate prediction equations. Better identification of at-risk individuals will promote more effective primary and secondary preventive initiatives to reduce Indigenous Australian health disadvantage.

Common genetic risk factors for coronary artery disease: new opportunities for prevention?

PubMed

Hamrefors, Viktor

2017-05-01

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide, with coronary artery disease (CAD) being the single leading cause of death. Better control of risk factors, enhanced diagnostic techniques and improved medical therapies have all substantially decreased the mortality of CAD in developed countries. However, CAD and other forms of atherosclerotic CVD are projected to remain the leading cause of death by 2030 and we face a number of challenges if the outcomes of CAD are to be further improved. The fact that a substantial fraction of high-risk subjects do not reach treatment goals for important risk factors is one of these challenges. At the same time, there is also a non-negotiable fraction of 'concealed' high-risk subjects who are not detected by current risk algorithms and diagnostic modalities. In recent years, we have started to rapidly increase our knowledge of the framework of common genetics underlying CAD and atherosclerotic CVD in the population. In conjunction with modern diagnostic and therapeutic options, this new genetic knowledge may provide a valuable tool for further improvements in prevention. This review summarizes the recent findings from the search for common genetic risk factors for CAD. Furthermore, the author discusses how such recent findings could potentially be used in a number of clinical applications within CAD prevention, including in clinical risk stratification, in prediction of drug treatment response and in the search for targets for novel preventive therapies. © 2015 Scandinavian Society of Clinical Physiology and Nuclear Medicine. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Revealing cancer subtypes with higher-order correlations applied to imaging and omics data.

PubMed

Graim, Kiley; Liu, Tiffany Ting; Achrol, Achal S; Paull, Evan O; Newton, Yulia; Chang, Steven D; Harsh, Griffith R; Cordero, Sergio P; Rubin, Daniel L; Stuart, Joshua M

2017-03-31

Patient stratification to identify subtypes with different disease manifestations, severity, and expected survival time is a critical task in cancer diagnosis and treatment. While stratification approaches using various biomarkers (including high-throughput gene expression measurements) for patient-to-patient comparisons have been successful in elucidating previously unseen subtypes, there remains an untapped potential of incorporating various genotypic and phenotypic data to discover novel or improved groupings. Here, we present HOCUS, a unified analytical framework for patient stratification that uses a community detection technique to extract subtypes out of sparse patient measurements. HOCUS constructs a patient-to-patient network from similarities in the data and iteratively groups and reconstructs the network into higher order clusters. We investigate the merits of using higher-order correlations to cluster samples of cancer patients in terms of their associations with survival outcomes. In an initial test of the method, the approach identifies cancer subtypes in mutation data of glioblastoma, ovarian, breast, prostate, and bladder cancers. In several cases, HOCUS provides an improvement over using the molecular features directly to compare samples. Application of HOCUS to glioblastoma images reveals a size and location classification of tumors that improves over human expert-based stratification. Subtypes based on higher order features can reveal comparable or distinct groupings. The distinct solutions can provide biologically- and treatment-relevant solutions that are just as significant as solutions based on the original data.

The use of multilevel sampling techniques for determining shallow aquifer nitrate profiles.

PubMed

Lasagna, Manuela; De Luca, Domenico Antonio

2016-10-01

Nitrate is a worldwide pollutant in aquifers. Shallow aquifer nitrate concentrations generally display vertical stratification, with a maximum concentration immediately below the water level. The concentration then gradually decreases with depth. Different techniques can be used to highlight this stratification. The paper aims at comparing the advantages and limitations of three open hole multilevel sampling techniques (packer system, dialysis membrane samplers and bailer), chosen on the base of a literary review, to highlight a nitrate vertical stratification under the assumption of (sub)horizontal flow in the aquifer. The sampling systems were employed at three different times of the year in a shallow aquifer piezometer in northern Italy. The optimal purge time, equilibration time and water volume losses during the time in the piezometer were evaluated. Multilevel techniques highlighted a similar vertical nitrate stratification, present throughout the year. Indeed, nitrate concentrations generally decreased with depth downwards, but with significantly different levels in the sampling campaigns. Moreover, the sampling techniques produced different degrees of accuracy. More specifically, the dialysis membrane samplers provided the most accurate hydrochemical profile of the shallow aquifer and they appear to be necessary when the objective is to detect the discontinuities in the nitrate profile. Bailer and packer system showed the same nitrate profile with little differences of concentration. However, the bailer resulted much more easier to use.

The influence of aortic valve calcification on the risk of periprocedural myocardial injury after elective coronary intervention.

PubMed

Chen, Zhang-Wei; Yang, Hong-Bo; Chen, Ying-Hua; Qian, Ju-Ying; Shu, Xian-Hong; Ge, Jun-Bo

2015-10-01

Aortic valve calcification (AVC) is a common progressive condition that involves several inflammatory and atherosclerotic mediators. However, it is unclear whether the occurrence of periprocedural myocardial injury (PMI) after elective coronary intervention is associated with AVC in stable coronary artery disease (CAD) patients. A total of 530 stable CAD patients who underwent elective coronary intervention were enrolled in this clinical study. High sensitive cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) was detected before and after the procedure. PMI was defined as hs-cTnT after coronary intervention higher than 99th percentile upper reference limit (URL). All patients underwent echocardiography to detect the occurrence of AVC. Univariate and multivariate analyses were applied to analyze risk factors of PMI. A total of 210 patients (39.6 %) were diagnosed with PMI after elective coronary intervention. Compared with non-AVC patients (n = 386), AVC patients (n = 144) had higher rate of PMI (64.6 vs. 30.3 %, P < 0.01). CAD patients with AVC had higher Gensini score (39.9 ± 26.6 vs. 34.2 ± 22.1, P < 0.05) and more number of implanted stents (1.7 ± 0.8 vs. 1.5 ± 0.7, P < 0.05). After stratification by classic risk factors of CAD (such as age, male gender and diabetes) in subgroup analyses, we found that AVC patients had increased risk of PMI compared with non-AVC patients. Importantly, even after being adjusted by multivariate analysis, AVC still independently increased the risk of PMI (OR = 3.329, 95 % CI = 2.087-5.308, P < 0.01). AVC significantly increased the risk of PMI after elective coronary intervention. It could be one of the independent predictors for PMI in stable CAD patients.

Association Between the Presence of Carotid Artery Plaque and Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Genetic Hypercholesterolemia.

PubMed

Bea, Ana M; Civeira, Fernando; Jarauta, Estíbaliz; Lamiquiz-Moneo, Itziar; Pérez-Calahorra, Sofía; Marco-Benedí, Victoria; Cenarro, Ana; Mateo-Gallego, Rocío

2017-07-01

The equations used in the general population to calculate cardiovascular risk are not useful in genetic hypercholesterolemia (GH). Carotid plaque detection has proved useful in cardiovascular prediction and risk reclassification but there have been no studies of its usefulness in GH. The aim of this study was to determine the association between the presence of carotid artery plaque and the occurrence of cardiovascular events in patients with GH. This study included 1778 persons with GH. The mean follow-up until the occurrence of cardiovascular events was 6.26 years. At presentation, the presence of carotid artery plaque was studied by high-resolution ultrasound. Carotid artery plaque was found in 661 (37.2%) patients: 31.9% with familial hypercholesterolemia, 39.8% with familial combined hyperlipidemia, 45.5% with dysbetalipoproteinemia, and 43.2% with polygenic hypercholesterolemia. During follow-up, 58 patients had a cardiovascular event. Event rates were 6354/100 000 (95%CI, 4432.4-8275.6) in the group with plaque and 1432/100 000 (95%CI, 730.6-2134.3) in the group without plaque, with significant differences between the 2 groups (P < .001). The relative risk of an event was 4.34 (95CI%, 2.44-7.71; P < .001) times higher in patients with plaque and was 2.40 (95%CI, 1.27-4.56; P = .007) times higher after adjustment for major risk factors. The number of carotid artery plaques was positively associated with the risk of cardiovascular events. Most cardiovascular events occur in a subgroup of patients who can be identified by carotid plaque detection. These results support the use of plaque screening in this population and should help in risk stratification and treatment in GH. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Investigation of major genetic alterations in neuroblastoma.

PubMed

Costa, Régis Afonso; Seuánez, Héctor N

2018-06-01

Neuroblastoma (NB) is the most common extracranial solid tumor in childhood. This malignancy shows a wide spectrum of clinical outcome and its prognosis is conditioned by manifold biological and genetic factors. We investigated the tumor genetic profile and clinical data of 29 patients with NB by multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) to assess therapeutic risk. In 18 of these tumors, MYCN status was assessed by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). Copy number variation was also determined for confirming MLPA findings in two 6p loci. We found 2p, 7q and 17q gains, and 1p and 11q losses as the most frequent chromosome alterations in this cohort. FISH confirmed all cases of MYCN amplification detected by MLPA. In view of unexpected 6p imbalance, copy number variation of two 6p loci was assessed for validating MLPA findings. Based on clinical data and genetic profiles, patients were stratified in pretreatment risk groups according to international consensus. MLPA proved to be effective for detecting multiple genetic alterations in all chromosome regions as requested by the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group (INRG) for therapeutic stratification. Moreover, this technique proved to be cost effective, reliable, only requiring standard PCR equipment, and attractive for routine analysis. However, the observed 6p imbalances made PKHD1 and DCDC2 inadequate for control loci. This must be considered when designing commercial MLPA kits for NB. Finally, four patients showed a normal MLPA profile, suggesting that NB might have a more complex genetic pattern than the one assessed by presently available MLPA kits.

Microalbuminuria could improve risk stratification in patients with TIA and minor stroke.

PubMed

Elyas, Salim; Shore, Angela C; Kingwell, Hayley; Keenan, Samantha; Boxall, Leigh; Stewart, Jane; James, Martin A; Strain, William David

2016-09-01

Transient ischemic attacks (TIA) and minor strokes are important risk factors for recurrent strokes. Current stroke risk prediction scores such as ABCD2, although widely used, lack optimal sensitivity and specificity. Elevated urinary albumin excretion predicts cardiovascular disease, stroke, and mortality. We explored the role of microalbuminuria (using albumin creatinine ratio (ACR)) in predicting recurrence risk in patients with TIA and minor stroke. Urinary ACR was measured on a spot sample in 150 patients attending a daily stroke clinic with TIA or minor stroke. Patients were followed up at day 7, 30, and 90 to determine recurrent stroke, cardiovascular events, or death. Eligible patients had a carotid ultrasound Doppler investigation. High-risk patients were defined as those who had an event within 90 days or had >50% internal carotid artery (ICA) stenosis. Fourteen (9.8%) recurrent events were reported by day 90 including two deaths. Fifteen patients had severe ICA stenosis. In total, 26 patients were identified as high risk. These patients had a higher frequency of previous stroke or hypercholesterolemia compared to low-risk patients (P = 0.04). ACR was higher in high-risk patients (3.4 [95% CI 2.2-5.2] vs. 1.7 [1.5-2.1] mg/mmol, P = 0.004), independent of age, sex, blood pressure, diabetes, and previous stroke. An ACR greater than 1.5 mg/mmol predicted high-risk patients (Cox proportional hazard ratio 3.5 (95% CI 1.3-9.5, P = 0.01). After TIA or minor stroke, a higher ACR predicted recurrent events and significant ICA stenosis. Incorporation of urinary ACR from a spot sample in the acute setting could improve risk stratification in patients with TIA and minor stroke.

Major Depressive Disorder and Bipolar Disorder Predispose Youth to Accelerated Atherosclerosis and Early Cardiovascular Disease: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association.

PubMed

Goldstein, Benjamin I; Carnethon, Mercedes R; Matthews, Karen A; McIntyre, Roger S; Miller, Gregory E; Raghuveer, Geetha; Stoney, Catherine M; Wasiak, Hank; McCrindle, Brian W

2015-09-08

In the 2011 "Expert Panel on Integrated Guidelines for Cardiovascular Health and Risk Reduction in Children and Adolescents," several medical conditions among youth were identified that predispose to accelerated atherosclerosis and early cardiovascular disease (CVD), and risk stratification and management strategies for youth with these conditions were elaborated. Major depressive disorder (MDD) and bipolar disorder (BD) among youth satisfy the criteria set for, and therefore merit inclusion among, Expert Panel tier II moderate-risk conditions. The combined prevalence of MDD and BD among adolescents in the United States is ≈10%, at least 10 times greater than the prevalence of the existing moderate-risk conditions combined. The high prevalence of MDD and BD underscores the importance of positioning these diseases alongside other pediatric diseases previously identified as moderate risk for CVD. The overall objective of this statement is to increase awareness and recognition of MDD and BD among youth as moderate-risk conditions for early CVD. To achieve this objective, the primary specific aims of this statement are to (1) summarize evidence that MDD and BD are tier II moderate-risk conditions associated with accelerated atherosclerosis and early CVD and (2) position MDD and BD as tier II moderate-risk conditions that require the application of risk stratification and management strategies in accordance with Expert Panel recommendations. In this scientific statement, there is an integration of the various factors that putatively underlie the association of MDD and BD with CVD, including pathophysiological mechanisms, traditional CVD risk factors, behavioral and environmental factors, and psychiatric medications. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Collaborative Review: Risk-Based Prostate Cancer Screening

PubMed Central

Zhu, Xiaoye; Albertsen, Peter C.; Andriole, Gerald L.; Roobol, Monique J.; Schröder, Fritz H.; Vickers, Andrew J.

2016-01-01

Context Widespread mass screening of prostate cancer (PCa) is not recommended because the balance between benefits and harms is still not well established. The achieved mortality reduction comes with considerable harm such as unnecessary biopsies, overdiagnoses, and overtreatment. Therefore, patient stratification with regard to PCa risk and aggressiveness is necessary to identify those men who are at risk and may actually benefit from early detection. Objective This review critically examines the current evidence regarding risk-based PCa screening. Evidence acquisition A search of the literature was performed using the Medline database. Further studies were selected based on manual searches of reference lists and review articles. Evidence synthesis Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) has been shown to be the single most significant predictive factor for identifying men at increased risk of developing PCa. Especially in men with no additional risk factors, PSA alone provides an appropriate marker up to 30 yr into the future. After assessment of an early PSA test, the screening frequency may be determined based on individualized risk. A limited list of additional factors such as age, comorbidity, prostate volume, family history, ethnicity, and previous biopsy status have been identified to modify risk and are important for consideration in routine practice. In men with a known PSA, risk calculators may hold the promise of identifying those who are at increased risk of having PCa and are therefore candidates for biopsy. Conclusions PSA testing may serve as the foundation for a more risk-based assessment. However, the decision to undergo early PSA testing should be a shared one between the patient and his physician based on information balancing its advantages and disadvantages. PMID:22134009

Clinical severity score system in dogs with degenerative mitral valve disease.

PubMed

López-Alvarez, J; Elliott, J; Pfeiffer, D; Chang, Y-M; Mattin, M; Moonarmart, W; Hezzell, M J; Boswood, A

2015-01-01

Several risk factors already have been determined for dogs with degenerative mitral valve disease (DMVD). Risk factors often have been considered in isolation and have not always taken into account additional information provided by the history and physical examination (PE). Data obtained from history and PE of dogs with DMVD provide prognostic information and can be used for risk stratification. Client-owned dogs (n = 244) with DMVD recruited from first opinion practice. Prospective longitudinal follow-up of dogs with DMVD. History and PE data were obtained at 6-month intervals and analyzed with time-dependent Cox models to derive relative risk of cardiac death. Independent hazard ratios were used to derive a clinical severity score (CSS), the prognostic value of which was evaluated by analyzing the median survival times for different risk groups and ROC analysis. Analysis of the progression of CSS over time also was undertaken. History of cough, exercise intolerance, decreased appetite, breathlessness (difficulty breathing) and syncope with PE findings of heart murmur intensity louder than III/VI and absence of respiratory sinus arrhythmia were independently associated with outcome and allowed development of the CSS. Clinical severity score distinguished groups of dogs with significantly different outcomes. Routinely obtained clinical findings allow risk stratification of dogs with DMVD. Results of ancillary diagnostic tests may be complementary to history and PE findings and always should be interpreted in conjunction with these findings. Copyright © 2015 by the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

Near-surface energy transfers from internal tide beams to smaller vertical scale motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, S.; Staquet, C.; Carter, G. S.; Luther, D. S.

2016-02-01

Mechanical energy capable of causing diapycnal mixing in the ocean is transferred to the internal wave field when barotropic tides pass over underwater topography and generate internal tides. The resulting internal tide energy is confined in vertically limited structures, or beams. As internal tide beams (ITBs) propagate through regions of non-uniform stratification in the upper ocean, wave energy can be scattered through multiple reflections and refractions, be vertically trapped, or transferred to non-tidal frequencies through different nonlinear processes. Various observations have shown that ITBs are no longer detectable in horizontal kinetic energy beyond the first surface reflection. Importantly, this implies that some of the internal tide energy no longer propagates in to the abyssal ocean and consequently will not be available to maintain the density stratification. Using the NHM, a nonlinear and nonhydrostatic model based on the MITgcm, simulations of an ITB propagating up to the sea surface are examined in order to quantify the transformation of ITB energy to other motions. We compare and contrast the transformations enabled by idealized, smoothly-varying stratification with transformations enabled by realistic stratification containing a broad-band vertical wavenumber spectrum of variations. Preliminary two-dimensional results show that scattering due to small-scale structure in realistic stratification profiles from Hawaii can lead to energy being vertically trapped near the surface. Idealized simulations of "locally" generated internal solitary waves are analyzed in terms of energy flux transfers from the ITB to solitary waves, higher harmonics, and mean flow. The amount of internal tide energy which propagates back down after near-surface reflection of the ITB in different environments is quantified.

[Exercise stress test and dobutamine stress echocardiography for the prognostic stratification after uncomplicated acute myocardial infarction].

PubMed

Vitiello, Nicola; Cirillo, Raffaele; Granato, Luigi; Coppola, Vincenzo; di Palma, Francesco

2007-05-01

Exercise stress test and dobutamine stress echocardiography are usually performed early after an uncomplicated acute myocardial infarction in the prognostic stratification of patients to define the optimal diagnostic and therapeutic procedure. The aim of this study was to evaluate if the association of an imaging test could increase exercise test capability to identify patients with residual ischemia and patients at high risk of events in the follow-up. Four hundred and forty-two consecutive patients underwent exercise stress testing and dobutamine stress echocardiography before discharge and subsequently coronary angiography within 30 days. In case of submaximal negative result at the exercise test, this was repeated 20 days after discharge. The follow-up lasted 26.8 +/- 9 months. The endpoints were death, reinfarction, and unstable angina requiring hospitalization or revascularization intervention. Both tests and their association showed a higher sensitivity in males; in females dobutamine stress echocardiography had a higher specificity. In females, the addition of dobutamine stress echocardiography increased either the negative or the positive prognostic values of exercise stress test by 31% and 5.6%, respectively. In males, the negative prognostic value increased by 15.5%, whereas the positive prognostic value decreased by 12%. A low exercise capability (<6 METs) showed an event predictive value independent of test results and any other variables. The event-free survival curves correlated with exercise capability differed shortly after the first months both in males and females. These results suggest different stratification procedures with regard to gender: in males, the exercise stress test might be sufficient at discharge, to be repeated 20 days later, if submaximal negative. In females, it seems to be useful to associate an imaging test at discharge. In any case, the exercise stress test remains the main step in the stratification procedure also for its capability to identify patients who are at high risk of events in the follow-up.

CoAIMs: A Cost-Effective Panel of Ancestry Informative Markers for Determining Continental Origins

PubMed Central

Londin, Eric R.; Keller, Margaret A.; Maista, Cathleen; Smith, Gretchen; Mamounas, Laura A.; Zhang, Ran; Madore, Steven J.; Gwinn, Katrina; Corriveau, Roderick A.

2010-01-01

Background Genetic ancestry is known to impact outcomes of genotype-phenotype studies that are designed to identify risk for common diseases in human populations. Failure to control for population stratification due to genetic ancestry can significantly confound results of disease association studies. Moreover, ancestry is a critical factor in assessing lifetime risk of disease, and can play an important role in optimizing treatment. As modern medicine moves towards using personal genetic information for clinical applications, it is important to determine genetic ancestry in an accurate, cost-effective and efficient manner. Self-identified race is a common method used to track and control for population stratification; however, social constructs of race are not necessarily informative for genetic applications. The use of ancestry informative markers (AIMs) is a more accurate method for determining genetic ancestry for the purposes of population stratification. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we introduce a novel panel of 36 microsatellite (MSAT) AIMs that determines continental admixture proportions. This panel, which we have named Continental Ancestry Informative Markers or CoAIMs, consists of MSAT AIMs that were chosen based upon their measure of genetic variance (Fst), allele frequencies and their suitability for efficient genotyping. Genotype analysis using CoAIMs along with a Bayesian clustering method (STRUCTURE) is able to discern continental origins including Europe/Middle East (Caucasians), East Asia, Africa, Native America, and Oceania. In addition to determining continental ancestry for individuals without significant admixture, we applied CoAIMs to ascertain admixture proportions of individuals of self declared race. Conclusion/Significance CoAIMs can be used to efficiently and effectively determine continental admixture proportions in a sample set. The CoAIMs panel is a valuable resource for genetic researchers performing case-control genetic association studies, as it can control for the confounding effects of population stratification. The MSAT-based approach used here has potential for broad applicability as a cost effective tool toward determining admixture proportions. PMID:20976178

Example study for granular bioreactor stratification: Three-dimensional evaluation of a sulfate-reducing granular bioreactor

PubMed Central

Hao, Tian-wei; Luo, Jing-hai; Su, Kui-zu; Wei, Li; Mackey, Hamish R.; Chi, Kun; Chen, Guang-Hao

2016-01-01

Recently, sulfate-reducing granular sludge has been developed for application in sulfate-laden water and wastewater treatment. However, little is known about biomass stratification and its effects on the bioprocesses inside the granular bioreactor. A comprehensive investigation followed by a verification trial was therefore conducted in the present work. The investigation focused on the performance of each sludge layer, the internal hydrodynamics and microbial community structures along the height of the reactor. The reactor substratum (the section below baffle 1) was identified as the main acidification zone based on microbial analysis and reactor performance. Two baffle installations increased mixing intensity but at the same time introduced dead zones. Computational fluid dynamics simulation was employed to visualize the internal hydrodynamics. The 16S rRNA gene of the organisms further revealed that more diverse communities of sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) and acidogens were detected in the reactor substratum than in the superstratum (the section above baffle 1). The findings of this study shed light on biomass stratification in an SRB granular bioreactor to aid in the design and optimization of such reactors. PMID:27539264

X-band Electron Paramagnetic Resonance Investigation of Stable Organic Radicals Present under Cold Stratification in 'Fuji' Apple Seeds.

PubMed

Nakagawa, Kouichi; Matsumoto, Kazuhiro; Chaiserm, Nattakan; Priprem, Aroonsri

2017-01-01

We investigated stable organic radicals formed in response to cold stratification in 'Fuji' apple seeds using X-band (9 GHz) electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) technique. This technique primarily detected two paramagnetic species in each seed. These two different radical species were assigned as a stable organic radical and Mn 2+ species based on the g values and hyperfine components. Signal from the stable radicals was noted at a g value of about 2.00 and was strong and relatively stable. Significant radical intensity changes were observed in apple seeds on refrigeration along with water supplementation. The strongest radical intensity and a very weak Mn 2+ signal were also observed for the seeds kept in moisture-containing sand in a refrigerator. Noninvasive EPR of the radicals present in each seed revealed that the stable radicals were located primarily in the seed coat. These results indicate that the significant radical intensity changes in apple seeds under refrigeration for at least 90 days followed by water supplementation for one week, can be related to cold stratification of the seeds.

Acute myeloid leukemia in children: Current status and future directions.

PubMed

Taga, Takashi; Tomizawa, Daisuke; Takahashi, Hiroyuki; Adachi, Souichi

2016-02-01

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) accounts for 25% of pediatric leukemia and affects approximately 180 patients annually in Japan. The treatment outcome for pediatric AML has improved through advances in chemotherapy, hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), supportive care, and optimal risk stratification. Currently, clinical pediatric AML studies are conducted separately according to the AML subtypes: de novo AML, acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL), and myeloid leukemia with Down syndrome (ML-DS). Children with de novo AML are treated mainly with anthracyclines and cytarabine, in some cases with HSCT, and the overall survival (OS) rate now approaches 70%. Children with APL are treated with an all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA)-combined regimen with an 80-90% OS. Children with ML-DS are treated with a less intensive regimen compared with non-DS patients, and the OS is approximately 80%. HSCT in first remission is restricted to children with high-risk de novo AML only. To further improve outcomes, it will be necessary to combine more accurate risk stratification strategies using molecular genetic analysis with assessment of minimum residual disease, and the introduction of new drugs in international collaborative clinical trials. © 2015 Japan Pediatric Society.

The use of adenosine and adenosine triphosphate testing in the diagnosis, risk stratification and management of patients with syncope: current evidence and future perspectives.

PubMed

Fragakis, Nikolaos; Antoniadis, Antonios P; Saviano, Massimo; Vassilikos, Vassilios; Pappone, Carlo

2015-03-15

Syncope is a significant source of cardiovascular-related morbidity yet the etiology is frequently obscure and the identification of patients at highest risk is challenging. Adenosine (AD) and adenosine triphosphate (ATP) administrations have been suggested as potentially useful non-invasive tools in the diagnostic workup of patients with neurally-mediated or bradycardia-related syncope. It has been postulated that both compounds by modulating the autonomic innervation in the heart and exerting negative chronotropic and dromotropic effects in the conduction system, may unmask the mechanism of syncope. However, the clinical implications derived from the efficacy of both tests in the investigation of syncope remain unclear mainly due to inconclusive and occasionally contradictory results of published studies. This review article summarizes recent and past information in the use of ATP and AD in the investigation of syncope with emphasis on clinical trials. We present the current level of evidence for the use of these agents in clinical practice, identify areas where further research is warranted and highlight the future perspectives of these agents as complements to an accurate risk-stratification of patients with syncope. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

ADVANCES IN IMAGING TECHNOLOGIES IN THE EVALUATION OF HIGH-GRADE BLADDER CANCER

PubMed Central

Zlatev, Dimitar V.; Altobelli, Emanuela; Liao, Joseph C.

2015-01-01

Bladder cancer is a heterogeneous disease that ranges from low-grade variant with an indolent course, to high-grade subtype with a recurrent, progressive, and potentially lethal outcome. Accurate assessment for individualized treatment depends critically on the diagnostic accuracy of white light cystoscopy. Despite its central role, white light cystoscopy has several well-documented shortcomings including difficult flat lesion detection, imprecise tumor delineation that limits complete resection, differentiation between inflammation and malignancy, and grade and stage determination. As the limitations of white light cystoscopy contribute to the risk of cancer persistence, recurrence, and progression, there is a need for improved visualization of flat, multifocal, high-grade, and muscle-invasive lesions. Optical imaging technologies have emerged as an adjunct to white light cystoscopy with the goal to guide more effective treatment by improving cancer detection and patient stratification on the basis of grade and stage. Photodynamic diagnosis and narrow band imaging are macroscopic imaging modalities similar to white light cystoscopy, but provide additional contrast enhancement of bladder tumors and have been shown to improve detection rates. Confocal laser endomicroscopy and optical coherence tomography are microscopic imaging technologies that enable real-time high resolution, subsurface tissue characterization with spatial resolutions similar to histology. Molecular imaging offers the potential for the combination of optical imaging technologies with cancer-specific molecular agents to improve the specificity of disease detection. PMID:25882557

Modelling the distribution of chickens, ducks, and geese in China

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prosser, Diann J.; Wu, Junxi; Ellis, Erie C.; Gale, Fred; Van Boeckel, Thomas P.; Wint, William; Robinson, Tim; Xiao, Xiangming; Gilbert, Marius

2011-01-01

Global concerns over the emergence of zoonotic pandemics emphasize the need for high-resolution population distribution mapping and spatial modelling. Ongoing efforts to model disease risk in China have been hindered by a lack of available species level distribution maps for poultry. The goal of this study was to develop 1 km resolution population density models for China's chickens, ducks, and geese. We used an information theoretic approach to predict poultry densities based on statistical relationships between poultry census data and high-resolution agro-ecological predictor variables. Model predictions were validated by comparing goodness of fit measures (root mean square error and correlation coefficient) for observed and predicted values for 1/4 of the sample data which were not used for model training. Final output included mean and coefficient of variation maps for each species. We tested the quality of models produced using three predictor datasets and 4 regional stratification methods. For predictor variables, a combination of traditional predictors for livestock mapping and land use predictors produced the best goodness of fit scores. Comparison of regional stratifications indicated that for chickens and ducks, a stratification based on livestock production systems produced the best results; for geese, an agro-ecological stratification produced best results. However, for all species, each method of regional stratification produced significantly better goodness of fit scores than the global model. Here we provide descriptive methods, analytical comparisons, and model output for China's first high resolution, species level poultry distribution maps. Output will be made available to the scientific and public community for use in a wide range of applications from epidemiological studies to livestock policy and management initiatives.

Stratification Pattern of Static and Scale-Invariant Dynamic Measures of Heartbeat Fluctuations Across Sleep Stages in Young and Elderly

PubMed Central

Schmitt, Daniel T.; Stein, Phyllis K.; Ivanov, Plamen Ch.

2010-01-01

Cardiac dynamics exhibit complex variability characterized by scale-invariant and nonlinear temporal organization related to the mechanism of neuroautonomic control, which changes with physiologic states and pathologic conditions. Changes in sleep regulation during sleep stages are also related to fluctuations in autonomic nervous activity. However, the interaction between sleep regulation and cardiac autonomic control remains not well understood. Even less is known how this interaction changes with age, as aspects of both cardiac dynamics and sleep regulation differ in healthy elderly compared to young subjects. We hypothesize that because of the neuroautonomic responsiveness in young subjects, fractal and nonlinear features of cardiac dynamics exhibit a pronounced stratification pattern across sleep stages, while in elderly these features will remain unchanged due to age-related loss of cardiac variability and decline of neuroautonomic responsiveness. We analyze the variability and the temporal fractal organization of heartbeat fluctuations across sleep stages in both young and elderly. We find that independent linear and nonlinear measures of cardiac control consistently exhibit the same ordering in their values across sleep stages, forming a robust stratification pattern. Despite changes in sleep architecture and reduced heart rate variability in elderly subjects, this stratification surprisingly does not break down with advanced age. Moreover, the difference between sleep stages for some linear, fractal, and nonlinear measures exceeds the difference between young and elderly, suggesting that the effect of sleep regulation on cardiac dynamics is significantly stronger than the effect of healthy aging. Quantifying changes in this stratification pattern may provide insights into how alterations in sleep regulation contribute to increased cardiac risk. PMID:19203874

Modelling the distribution of chickens, ducks, and geese in China

PubMed Central

Prosser, Diann J.; Wu, Junxi; Ellis, Erle C.; Gale, Fred; Van Boeckel, Thomas P.; Wint, William; Robinson, Tim; Xiao, Xiangming; Gilbert, Marius

2011-01-01

Global concerns over the emergence of zoonotic pandemics emphasize the need for high-resolution population distribution mapping and spatial modelling. Ongoing efforts to model disease risk in China have been hindered by a lack of available species level distribution maps for poultry. The goal of this study was to develop 1 km resolution population density models for China’s chickens, ducks, and geese. We used an information theoretic approach to predict poultry densities based on statistical relationships between poultry census data and high-resolution agro-ecological predictor variables. Model predictions were validated by comparing goodness of fit measures (root mean square error and correlation coefficient) for observed and predicted values for ¼ of the sample data which was not used for model training. Final output included mean and coefficient of variation maps for each species. We tested the quality of models produced using three predictor datasets and 4 regional stratification methods. For predictor variables, a combination of traditional predictors for livestock mapping and land use predictors produced the best goodness of fit scores. Comparison of regional stratifications indicated that for chickens and ducks, a stratification based on livestock production systems produced the best results; for geese, an agro-ecological stratification produced best results. However, for all species, each method of regional stratification produced significantly better goodness of fit scores than the global model. Here we provide descriptive methods, analytical comparisons, and model output for China’s first high resolution, species level poultry distribution maps. Output will be made available to the scientific and public community for use in a wide range of applications from epidemiological studies to livestock policy and management initiatives. PMID:21765567

Application of multivariate probabilistic (Bayesian) networks to substance use disorder risk stratification and cost estimation.

PubMed

Weinstein, Lawrence; Radano, Todd A; Jack, Timothy; Kalina, Philip; Eberhardt, John S

2009-09-16

This paper explores the use of machine learning and Bayesian classification models to develop broadly applicable risk stratification models to guide disease management of health plan enrollees with substance use disorder (SUD). While the high costs and morbidities associated with SUD are understood by payers, who manage it through utilization review, acute interventions, coverage and cost limitations, and disease management, the literature shows mixed results for these modalities in improving patient outcomes and controlling cost. Our objective is to evaluate the potential of data mining methods to identify novel risk factors for chronic disease and stratification of enrollee utilization, which can be used to develop new methods for targeting disease management services to maximize benefits to both enrollees and payers. For our evaluation, we used DecisionQ machine learning algorithms to build Bayesian network models of a representative sample of data licensed from Thomson-Reuters' MarketScan consisting of 185,322 enrollees with three full-year claim records. Data sets were prepared, and a stepwise learning process was used to train a series of Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). The BBNs were validated using a 10 percent holdout set. The networks were highly predictive, with the risk-stratification BBNs producing area under the curve (AUC) for SUD positive of 0.948 (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 0.944-0.951) and 0.736 (95 percent CI, 0.721-0.752), respectively, and SUD negative of 0.951 (95 percent CI, 0.947-0.954) and 0.738 (95 percent CI, 0.727-0.750), respectively. The cost estimation models produced area under the curve ranging from 0.72 (95 percent CI, 0.708-0.731) to 0.961 (95 percent CI, 0.95-0.971). We were able to successfully model a large, heterogeneous population of commercial enrollees, applying state-of-the-art machine learning technology to develop complex and accurate multivariate models that support near-real-time scoring of novel payer populations based on historic claims and diagnostic data. Initial validation results indicate that we can stratify enrollees with SUD diagnoses into different cost categories with a high degree of sensitivity and specificity, and the most challenging issue becomes one of policy. Due to the social stigma associated with the disease and ethical issues pertaining to access to care and individual versus societal benefit, a thoughtful dialogue needs to occur about the appropriate way to implement these technologies.

Quantification of plasma myo-inositol using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry.

PubMed

Guo, Jin; Shi, Yingfei; Xu, Chengbao; Zhong, Rugang; Zhang, Feng; Zhang, Ting; Niu, Bo; Wang, Jianhua

2016-09-01

Myo-inositol (MI) deficiency is associated with an increased risk for neural tube defects (NTDs), mental disorders and metabolic diseases. We developed a gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) method to detect MI in human plasma, which was accurate, relatively efficient and convenient for clinical application. An external standard method was used for determination of plasma MI. Samples were analyzed by GC-MS after derivatization. The stable-isotope labeled internal standard approach was used to validate the method's accuracy. Alpha fetal protein (AFP) was detected by chemiluminescence immunoassay. The method was validated by determining the linearity, sensitivity and recovery rate. There was a good agreement between the internal standard approach and the present method. The NTD-affected pregnancies showed lower plasma MI (P=0.024) and higher AFP levels (P=0.001) than control. Maternal MI level showed a better discrimination in spina bifida subgroup, while AFP level showed a better discrimination in anencephaly subgroup after stratification analysis. We developed a sensitive and reliable method for the detection of clinical plasma MI, which might be a marker for NTDs screening, and established fundamental knowledge for clinical diagnosis and prevention for the diseases related to disturbed MI metabolism. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Burden of cardiovascular risk factors and disease among patients with type 1 diabetes: results of the Australian National Diabetes Audit (ANDA).

PubMed

Pease, Anthony; Earnest, Arul; Ranasinha, Sanjeeva; Nanayakkara, Natalie; Liew, Danny; Wischer, Natalie; Andrikopoulos, Sofianos; Zoungas, Sophia

2018-06-02

Cardiovascular risk stratification is complex in type 1 diabetes. We hypothesised that traditional and diabetes-specific cardiovascular risk factors were prevalent and strongly associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) among adults with type 1 diabetes attending Australian diabetes centres. De-identified, prospectively collected data from patients with type 1 diabetes aged ≥ 18 years in the 2015 Australian National Diabetes Audit were analysed. The burden of cardiovascular risk factors [age, sex, diabetes duration, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), blood pressure, lipid profile, body mass index, smoking status, retinopathy, renal function and albuminuria] and associations with CVD inclusive of stroke, myocardial infarction, coronary artery bypass graft surgery/angioplasty and peripheral vascular disease were assessed. Restricted cubic splines assessed for non-linearity of diabetes duration and likelihood ratio test assessed for interactions between age, diabetes duration, centre type and cardiovascular outcomes of interest. Discriminatory ability of multivariable models were assessed with area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Data from 1169 patients were analysed. Mean (± SD) age and median diabetes duration was 40.0 (± 16.7) and 16.0 (8.0-27.0) years respectively. Cardiovascular risk factors were prevalent including hypertension (21.9%), dyslipidaemia (89.4%), overweight/obesity (56.4%), ever smoking (38.5%), albuminuria (31.1%), estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 (10.3%) and HbA1c > 7.0% (53 mmol/mol) (81.0%). Older age, longer diabetes duration, smoking and antihypertensive therapy use were positively associated with CVD, while high density lipoprotein-cholesterol and diastolic blood pressure were negatively associated (p < 0.05). Association with CVD and diabetes duration remained constant until 20 years when a linear increase was noted. Longer diabetes duration also had the highest population attributable risk of 6.5% (95% CI 1.4, 11.6). Further, the models for CVD demonstrated good discriminatory ability (area under the ROC curve 0.88; 95% CI 0.84, 0.92). Cardiovascular risk factors were prevalent and strongly associated with CVD among adults with type 1 diabetes attending Australian diabetes centres. Given the approximate J-shaped association between type 1 diabetes duration and CVD, the impact of cardiovascular risk stratification and management before and after 20 years duration needs to be further assessed longitudinally. Diabetes specific cardiovascular risk stratification tools incorporating diabetes duration should be an important consideration in future guideline development.

Mutant GNAS detected in duodenal collections of secretin-stimulated pancreatic juice indicates the presence or emergence of pancreatic cysts

PubMed Central

Kanda, Mitsuro; Knight, Spencer; Topazian, Mark; Syngal, Sapna; Farrell, James; Lee, Jeffrey; Kamel, Ihab; Lennon, Anne Marie; Borges, Michael; Young, Angela; Fujiwara, Sho; Seike, Junro; Eshleman, James; Hruban, Ralph H.; Canto, Marcia Irene; Goggins, Michael

2014-01-01

Objective Pancreatic cysts are commonly detected in patients undergoing pancreatic imaging. Better approaches are needed to characterize these lesions. In this study we evaluated the utility of detecting mutant DNA in secretin-stimulated pancreatic juice. Design Secretin-stimulated pancreatic juice was collected from the duodenum of 291 subjects enrolled in Cancer of the Pancreas Screening trials at 5 US academic medical centers. The study population included subjects with a familial predisposition to pancreatic cancer who underwent pancreatic screening, and disease controls with normal pancreata, chronic pancreatitis, sporadic IPMN, or other neoplasms. Somatic GNAS mutations (reported prevalence; ~66% of IPMNs) were measured using high-resolution digital melt-curve analysis and pyrosequencing. Results GNAS mutations were detected in secretin-stimulated pancreatic juice samples of 50 of 78 familial and sporadic cases with IPMN(s) (64.1%), 15 of 33 (45.5%) with only diminutive cysts (<5mm), but none of 57 disease controls. GNAS mutations were also detected in 5 of 123 screened subjects without a pancreatic cyst. Among 97 subjects who had serial pancreatic evaluations, GNAS mutations detected in baseline juice samples predicted subsequent emergence or increasing size of pancreatic cysts. Conclusion Duodenal collections of secretin-stimulated pancreatic juice from patients with IPMNs have a similar prevalence of mutant GNAS to primary IPMNs, indicating these samples are an excellent source of mutant DNA from the pancreas. The detection of GNAS mutations before an IPMN is visible suggests that pancreatic juice analysis has potential to help in the risk stratification and surveillance of patients undergoing pancreatic screening. PMID:22859495

The first Latin-American risk stratification system for cardiac surgery: can be used as a graphic pocket-card score.

PubMed

Carosella, Victorio C; Navia, Jose L; Al-Ruzzeh, Sharif; Grancelli, Hugo; Rodriguez, Walter; Cardenas, Cesar; Bilbao, Jorge; Nojek, Carlos

2009-08-01

This study aims to develop the first Latin-American risk model that can be used as a simple, pocket-card graphic score at bedside. The risk model was developed on 2903 patients who underwent cardiac surgery at the Spanish Hospital of Buenos Aires, Argentina, between June 1994 and December 1999. Internal validation was performed on 708 patients between January 2000 and June 2001 at the same center. External validation was performed on 1087 patients between February 2000 and January 2007 at three other centers in Argentina. In the development dataset the area under receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was 0.73 and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test was P=0.88. In the internal validation ROC curve was 0.77. In the external validation ROC curve was 0.81, but imperfect calibration was detected because the observed in-hospital mortality (3.96%) was significantly lower than the development dataset (8.20%) (P<0.0001). Recalibration was done in 2007, showing excellent level of agreement between the observed and predicted mortality rates on all patients (P=0.92). This is the first risk model for cardiac surgery developed in a population of Latin-America with both internal and external validation. A simple graphic pocket-card score allows an easy bedside application with acceptable statistic precision.

A Novel Risk Stratification to Predict Local-Regional Failures in Urothelial Carcinoma of the Bladder After Radical Cystectomy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baumann, Brian C.; Guzzo, Thomas J.; He Jiwei

2013-01-01

Purpose: Local-regional failures (LF) following radical cystectomy (RC) plus pelvic lymph node dissection (PLND) with or without chemotherapy for invasive urothelial bladder carcinoma are more common than previously reported. Adjuvant radiation therapy (RT) could reduce LF but currently has no defined role because of previously reported morbidity. Modern techniques with improved normal tissue sparing have rekindled interest in RT. We assessed the risk of LF and determined those factors that predict recurrence to facilitate patient selection for future adjuvant RT trials. Methods and Materials: From 1990-2008, 442 patients with urothelial bladder carcinoma at University of Pennsylvania were prospectively followed aftermore » RC plus PLND with or without chemotherapy with routine pelvic computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). One hundred thirty (29%) patients received chemotherapy. LF was any pelvic failure detected before or within 3 months of distant failure. Competing risk analyses identified factors predicting increased LF risk. Results: On univariate analysis, pathologic stage {>=}pT3, <10 nodes removed, positive margins, positive nodes, hydronephrosis, lymphovascular invasion, and mixed histology significantly predicted LF; node density was marginally predictive, but use of chemotherapy, number of positive nodes, type of surgical diversion, age, gender, race, smoking history, and body mass index were not. On multivariate analysis, only stage {>=}pT3 and <10 nodes removed were significant independent LF predictors with hazard ratios of 3.17 and 2.37, respectively (P<.01). Analysis identified 3 patient subgroups with significantly different LF risks: low-risk ({<=}pT2), intermediate-risk ({>=}pT3 and {>=}10 nodes removed), and high-risk ({>=}pT3 and <10 nodes) with 5-year LF rates of 8%, 23%, and 42%, respectively (P<.01). Conclusions: This series using routine CT and MRI surveillance to detect LF confirms that such failures are relatively common in cases of locally advanced disease and provides a rubric based on pathological stage and number of nodes removed that stratifies patients into 3 groups with significantly different LF risks to simplify patient selection for future adjuvant radiation therapy trials.« less

No Association Between Variant N-acetyltransferase Genes, Cigarette Smoking and Prostate Cancer Susceptibility Among Men of African Descent

PubMed Central

Kidd, La Creis Renee; VanCleave, Tiva T.; Doll, Mark A.; Srivastava, Daya S.; Thacker, Brandon; Komolafe, Oyeyemi; Pihur, Vasyl; Brock, Guy N.; Hein, David W.

2011-01-01

Objective We evaluated the individual and combination effects of NAT1, NAT2 and tobacco smoking in a case-control study of 219 incident prostate cancer (PCa) cases and 555 disease-free men. Methods Allelic discriminations for 15 NAT1 and NAT2 loci were detected in germ-line DNA samples using Taqman polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays. Single gene, gene-gene and gene-smoking interactions were analyzed using logistic regression models and multi-factor dimensionality reduction (MDR) adjusted for age and subpopulation stratification. MDR involves a rigorous algorithm that has ample statistical power to assess and visualize gene-gene and gene-environment interactions using relatively small samples sizes (i.e., 200 cases and 200 controls). Results Despite the relatively high prevalence of NAT1*10/*10 (40.1%), NAT2 slow (30.6%), and NAT2 very slow acetylator genotypes (10.1%) among our study participants, these putative risk factors did not individually or jointly increase PCa risk among all subjects or a subset analysis restricted to tobacco smokers. Conclusion Our data do not support the use of N-acetyltransferase genetic susceptibilities as PCa risk factors among men of African descent; however, subsequent studies in larger sample populations are needed to confirm this finding. PMID:21709725

Epstein-Barr virus lymphoproliferative disease after hematopoietic stem cell transplant.

PubMed

Rouce, Rayne H; Louis, Chrystal U; Heslop, Helen E

2014-11-01

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) reactivation can cause significant morbidity and mortality after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant. Delays in reconstitution of EBV-specific T lymphocyte activity can lead to life-threatening EBV lymphoproliferative disease (EBV-PTLD). This review highlights recent advances in the understanding of pathophysiology, risk factors, diagnosis, and management of EBV viremia and PTLD. During the past decade, early detection strategies, such as serial measurement of EBV-DNA load, have helped identify high-risk patients and diagnose early lymphoproliferation. The most significant advances have come in the form of innovative treatment options, including manipulation of the balance between outgrowing EBV-infected B cells and the EBV cytotoxic T lymphocyte response, and targeting infected B cells with monoclonal antibodies, chemotherapy, unmanipulated donor lymphocytes, and donor or more recently third-party EBV cytotoxic T lymphocytes. Defining criteria for preemptive therapy remains a challenge. EBV reactivation is a significant complication after stem cell transplant. Continued improvements in risk stratification and treatment options are required to improve the morbidity and mortality caused by EBV-associated diseases. Current approaches use rituximab to deplete B cells or adoptive transfer of EBV cytotoxic T lymphocyte to reconstitute immunity. The availability of rapid EBV-specific T cell products offers the possibility of improved outcomes.

[Determinants of dengue transmission in Veracruz: an ecological approach to its control].

PubMed

Escobar-Mesa, Javier; Gómez-Dantés, Héctor

2003-01-01

To assess the ecological, social, and demographic factors associated with the transmission of dengue virus infection in Veracruz, Mexico, and to identify risk areas to target control measures. This ecological study included data for 1,249 localities within the 11 Health Jurisdictions of the State of Veracruz, Mexico, for the 1995-1998 period. The following data were collected for each locality: total number of cases per year, population by sex, number of households, provision of public services, altitude, latitude, longitude, and deprivation index. Dengue transmission was registered in 17% of the localities in the State; 70% of the cases were concentrated in only 6% of the localities. Recurrent localities were urban centers with adequate availability of public services and low deprivation indices. Dengue transmission was detected in rural areas, but it was not common. The average number of cases differed according to the size of the locality and the number of years dengue was reported. A population threshold to maintain transmission was found. Recurrent localities concentrating 70% of dengue fever cases were identified, as well as the ecological and demographic factors associated with dengue transmission. The risk stratification approach to dengue transmission may improve control and prevention of this disease in high-risk areas.

Software engineering the mixed model for genome-wide association studies on large samples

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Mixed models improve the ability to detect phenotype-genotype associations in the presence of population stratification and multiple levels of relatedness in genome-wide association studies (GWAS), but for large data sets the resource consumption becomes impractical. At the same time, the sample siz...

Current and emerging operational uses of remote sensing in Swedish forestry

Treesearch

Hakan Olsson; Mikael Egberth; Jonas Engberg; Johan E.S. Fransson; Tina Granqvist Pahlen; < i> et al< /i>

2007-01-01

Satellite remote sensing is being used operationally by Swedish authorities in applications involving, for example, change detection of clear felled areas, use of k-Nearest Neighbour estimates of forest parameters, and post-stratification (in combination with National Forest Inventory plots). For forest management planning of estates, aerial...

Kawasaki disease and giant coronary artery aneurysms: the role of echocardiography from diagnosis through follow-up.

PubMed

Adler, Adam C; Kodavatiganti, Ramesh

2016-08-01

Kawasaki disease is an acquired vasculitis that can affect the coronary arteries placing the patient at risk for coronary artery thrombosis, myocardial ischemia and infarction. The risk of complications related to coronary artery involvement persists for years despite recovery from the acute illness phase. The risk of late coronary disease progression necessitates long term follow-up generally accomplished by non-invasive echocardiography in pediatric patients. We review the utility of echocardiography in patients with Kawasaki disease as it relates to initial management, risk stratification and follow-up of these children. © 2016, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Clinical risk stratification in patients with surgically resectable micropapillary bladder cancer.

PubMed

Fernández, Mario I; Williams, Stephen B; Willis, Daniel L; Slack, Rebecca S; Dickstein, Rian J; Parikh, Sahil; Chiong, Edmund; Siefker-Radtke, Arlene O; Guo, Charles C; Czerniak, Bogdan A; McConkey, David J; Shah, Jay B; Pisters, Louis L; Grossman, H Barton; Dinney, Colin P N; Kamat, Ashish M

2017-05-01

To analyse survival in patients with clinically localised, surgically resectable micropapillary bladder cancer (MPBC) undergoing radical cystectomy (RC) with and without neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) and develop risk strata based on outcome data. A review of our database identified 103 patients with surgically resectable (≤cT4acN0 cM0) MPBC who underwent RC. Survival estimates were calculated using Kaplan-Meier method and compared using log-rank tests. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was performed to identify risk groups for survival. For the entire cohort, estimated 5-year overall survival and disease-specific survival (DSS) rates were 52% and 58%, respectively. CART analysis identified three risk subgroups: low-risk: cT1, no hydronephrosis; high-risk: ≥cT2, no hydronephrosis; and highest-risk: cTany with tumour-associated hydronephrosis. The 5-year DSS for the low-, high-, and highest-risk groups were 92%, 51%, and 17%, respectively (P < 0.001). Patients down-staged at RC

Development and validation of the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT)

PubMed Central

Protopapa, K L; Simpson, J C; Smith, N C E; Moonesinghe, S R

2014-01-01

Background Existing risk stratification tools have limitations and clinical experience suggests they are not used routinely. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a preoperative risk stratification tool to predict 30-day mortality after non-cardiac surgery in adults by analysis of data from the observational National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcome and Death (NCEPOD) Knowing the Risk study. Methods The data set was split into derivation and validation cohorts. Logistic regression was used to construct a model in the derivation cohort to create the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT), which was tested in the validation cohort. Results Prospective data for 19 097 cases in 326 hospitals were obtained from the NCEPOD study. Following exclusion of 2309, details of 16 788 patients were analysed (derivation cohort 11 219, validation cohort 5569). A model of 45 risk factors was refined on repeated regression analyses to develop a model comprising six variables: American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA-PS) grade, urgency of surgery (expedited, urgent, immediate), high-risk surgical specialty (gastrointestinal, thoracic, vascular), surgical severity (from minor to complex major), cancer and age 65 years or over. In the validation cohort, the SORT was well calibrated and demonstrated better discrimination than the ASA-PS and Surgical Risk Scale; areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were 0·91 (95 per cent c.i. 0·88 to 0·94), 0·87 (0·84 to 0·91) and 0·88 (0·84 to 0·92) respectively (P < 0·001). Conclusion The SORT allows rapid and simple data entry of six preoperative variables, and provides a percentage mortality risk for individuals undergoing surgery. PMID:25388883

Cardiovascular risk stratification in overweight or obese patients in primary prevention. Implications for use of statins.

PubMed

Masson, Walter; Lobo, Martín; Huerín, Melina; Molinero, Graciela; Manente, Diego; Pángaro, Mario; Vitagliano, Laura; Zylbersztejn, Horacio

2015-02-01

Cardiovascular risk estimation in patients with overweight/obesity is not standardized. Our objectives were to stratify cardiovascular risk using different scores, to analyze use of statins, to report the prevalence of carotid atherosclerotic plaque (CAP), and to determine the optimal cut-off point (OCP) of scores that discriminate between subjects with or without CAP. Non-diabetic patients with overweight or obesity in primary prevention were enrolled. The Framingham score (FS), the European score (ES), and the score proposed by the new American guidelines (NS) were calculated, and statin indication was evaluated. Prevalence of CAP was determined by ultrasound examination. A ROC analysis was performed. A total of 474 patients (67% with overweight and 33% obese) were enrolled into the study. The FS classified the largest number of subjects as low risk. PAC prevalence was higher in obese as compared to overweight subjects (44.8% vs. 36.1%, P=.04). According to the FS, ES, and NS respectively, 26.7%, 39.1%, and 39.1% of overweight subjects and 28.6%, 39.0%, and 39.0% of obese subjects had an absolute indication for statins. All three scores were shown to acceptably discriminate between subjects with and without CAP (area under the curve>0.7). The OCPs evaluated did not agree with the risk category values. Risk stratification and use of statins varied in the overweight/obese population depending on the function used. Understanding of the relationship between scores and presence of CAP may optimize risk estimate. Copyright © 2014 SEEN. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Breast cancer screening in the era of density notification legislation: summary of 2014 Massachusetts experience and suggestion of an evidence-based management algorithm by multi-disciplinary expert panel.

PubMed

Freer, Phoebe E; Slanetz, Priscilla J; Haas, Jennifer S; Tung, Nadine M; Hughes, Kevin S; Armstrong, Katrina; Semine, A Alan; Troyan, Susan L; Birdwell, Robyn L

2015-09-01

Stemming from breast density notification legislation in Massachusetts effective 2015, we sought to develop a collaborative evidence-based approach to density notification that could be used by practitioners across the state. Our goal was to develop an evidence-based consensus management algorithm to help patients and health care providers follow best practices to implement a coordinated, evidence-based, cost-effective, sustainable practice and to standardize care in recommendations for supplemental screening. We formed the Massachusetts Breast Risk Education and Assessment Task Force (MA-BREAST) a multi-institutional, multi-disciplinary panel of expert radiologists, surgeons, primary care physicians, and oncologists to develop a collaborative approach to density notification legislation. Using evidence-based data from the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review, the Cochrane review, National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines, American Cancer Society recommendations, and American College of Radiology appropriateness criteria, the group collaboratively developed an evidence-based best-practices algorithm. The expert consensus algorithm uses breast density as one element in the risk stratification to determine the need for supplemental screening. Women with dense breasts and otherwise low risk (<15% lifetime risk), do not routinely require supplemental screening per the expert consensus. Women of high risk (>20% lifetime) should consider supplemental screening MRI in addition to routine mammography regardless of breast density. We report the development of the multi-disciplinary collaborative approach to density notification. We propose a risk stratification algorithm to assess personal level of risk to determine the need for supplemental screening for an individual woman.

Validation of risk stratification for children with febrile neutropenia in a pediatric oncology unit in India.

PubMed

Das, Anirban; Trehan, Amita; Oberoi, Sapna; Bansal, Deepak

2017-06-01

The study aims to validate a score predicting risk of complications in pediatric patients with chemotherapy-related febrile neutropenia (FN) and evaluate the performance of previously published models for risk stratification. Children diagnosed with cancer and presenting with FN were evaluated in a prospective single-center study. A score predicting the risk of complications, previously derived in the unit, was validated on a prospective cohort. Performance of six predictive models published from geographically distinct settings was assessed on the same cohort. Complications were observed in 109 (26.3%) of 414 episodes of FN over 15 months. A risk score based on undernutrition (two points), time from last chemotherapy (<7 days = two points), presence of a nonupper respiratory focus of infection (two points), C-reactive protein (>60 mg/l = five points), and absolute neutrophil count (<100 per μl = two points) was used to stratify patients into "low risk" (score <7, n = 208) and assessed using the following parameters: overall performance (Nagelkerke R 2 = 34.4%), calibration (calibration slope = 0.39; P = 0.25 in Hosmer-Lemeshow test), discrimination (c-statistic = 0.81), overall sensitivity (86%), negative predictive value (93%), and clinical net benefit (0.43). Six previously published rules demonstrated inferior performance in this cohort. An indigenous decision rule using five simple predefined variables was successful in identifying children at risk for complications. Prediction models derived in developed nations may not be appropriate for low-middle-income settings and need to be validated before use. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Frequency Of Different Risk Factors Associated With Recurrent Urinary Tract Infection Among Postmenopausal Women.

PubMed

Jameel, Sadia; Mahmud, Syed Nayer

2016-01-01

Urinary Tract Infection is one of the most common infections encountered by women. These infections have the tendency to recur. In order to identify women at risk of recurrence there is a need to identify risk factors associated with it. Among women, factors predisposing to recurrent infections are not much explored. The study was done with an objective to determine different risk factors associated with recurrent UTI among postmenopausal women. This was a cross sectional study conducted at the Out Patient Department of Nephrology in Shifa International Hospital Islamabad over a period of six months, June 6th to December 5th 2012. Information regarding demographics and risk factors were recorded on a predesigned pro forma. A descriptive analysis was done for quantitative variables like age and qualitative variables like marital status and frequency of different risk factors. Stratification of risk factors according to age was also done. Hundred females were enrolled into the study after informed consent. The mean age of the study population was 64.4±9.48. 97% of the population was married. Out of 100 patients, 42 had high post-void volume, 35 had urinary incontinence and 17 patients were having cystocele. According to age stratification, most frequently affected age group was between 51-60 years (38%), followed by 61-70 years (36%), then 25% in more than 70 years, whereas only 1% was between 41-50 years. Recurrent UTI in postmenopausal females is most frequently associated with high post void volume and most frequently affected age group is between 51-60 years.

Advanced techniques to prepare seed to sow

Treesearch

Robert P. Karrfalt

2013-01-01

This paper reviews research on improving the basic technique of cold stratification for tree and shrub seeds. Advanced stratification techniques include long stratification, stratification re-dry, or multiple cycles of warm-cold stratification. Research demonstrates that careful regulation of moisture levels and lengthening the stratification period have produced a...