Eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in the Glanville fritillary butterfly

PubMed Central

Hanski, Ilkka A.

2011-01-01

Demographic population dynamics, gene flow, and local adaptation may influence each other and lead to coupling of ecological and evolutionary dynamics, especially in species inhabiting fragmented heterogeneous environments. Here, I review long-term research on eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in the Glanville fritillary butterfly inhabiting a large network of approximately 4,000 meadows in Finland. The metapopulation persists in a balance between frequent local extinctions and recolonizations. The genetic spatial structure as defined by neutral markers is much more coarse-grained than the demographic spatial structure determined by the fragmented habitat, yet small-scale spatial structure has important consequences for the dynamics. I discuss three examples of eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics. (i) Extinction-colonization metapopulation dynamics influence allele frequency changes in the phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi) gene, which leads to strong associations between genetic variation in Pgi and dispersal, recolonization, and local population dynamics. (ii) Inbreeding in local populations increases their risk for extinction, whereas reciprocal effects between inbreeding, population size, and emigration represent likely eco-evolutionary feedbacks. (iii) Genetically determined female oviposition preference for two host plant species exhibits a cline paralleling a gradient in host plant relative abundances, and host plant preference of dispersing females in relation to the host plant composition of habitat patches influences immigration (gene flow) and recolonization (founder events). Eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in heterogeneous environments may not lead to directional evolutionary changes unless the environment itself changes, but eco-evolutionary dynamics may contribute to the maintenance of genetic variation attributable to fluctuating selection in space and time. PMID:21788506

Visible and infrared investigations of planet-crossing asteroids and outer solar system objects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tholen, David J.

1991-01-01

The project is supporting lightcurve photometry, colorimetry, thermal radiometry, and astrometry of selected asteroids. Targets include the planet-crossing population, particularly Earth approachers, which are believed to be the immediate source of terrestrial meteorites, future spacecraft targets, and those objects in the outer belt, primarily the Hilda and Trojan populations, that are dynamically isolated from the main asteroid belt. Goals include the determination of population statistics for the planet-crossing objects, the characterization of spacecraft targets to assist in encounter planning and subsequent interpretation of the data, a comparison of the collisional evolution of dynamically isolated Hilda and Trojan populations with the main belt, and the determination of the mechanism driving the activity of the distant object 2060 Chiron.

Bounds on the dynamics of sink populations with noisy immigration.

PubMed

Eager, Eric Alan; Guiver, Chris; Hodgson, Dave; Rebarber, Richard; Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart

2014-03-01

Sink populations are doomed to decline to extinction in the absence of immigration. The dynamics of sink populations are not easily modelled using the standard framework of per capita rates of immigration, because numbers of immigrants are determined by extrinsic sources (for example, source populations, or population managers). Here we appeal to a systems and control framework to place upper and lower bounds on both the transient and future dynamics of sink populations that are subject to noisy immigration. Immigration has a number of interpretations and can fit a wide variety of models found in the literature. We apply the results to case studies derived from published models for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and blowout penstemon (Penstemon haydenii). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simultaneous effects of food limitation and inducible resistance on herbivore population dynamics.

PubMed

Abbott, Karen C; Morris, William F; Gross, Kevin

2008-02-01

Many herbivore populations fluctuate temporally, but the causes of those fluctuations remain unclear. Plant inducible resistance can theoretically cause herbivore population fluctuations, because herbivory may induce plant changes that reduce the survival or reproduction of later-feeding herbivores. Herbivory can also simply reduce the quantity of food available for later feeders and this, too, can cause population fluctuations. Inducible resistance and food limitation often occur simultaneously, yet whether they jointly facilitate or suppress herbivore fluctuations remains largely unexplored. We present models that suggest that food limitation and inducible resistance may have synergistic effects on herbivore population dynamics. The population-level response of the food plant to herbivory and the details of how inducible resistance affects herbivore performance both influence the resulting herbivore dynamics. Our results identify some biological properties of plant-herbivore systems that might determine whether or not cycles occur, and suggest that future empirical and theoretical population dynamics studies should account for the effects of both food limitation and inducible resistance.

Population cycles: generalities, exceptions and remaining mysteries.

PubMed

Myers, Judith H

2018-03-28

Population cycles are one of nature's great mysteries. For almost a hundred years, innumerable studies have probed the causes of cyclic dynamics in snowshoe hares, voles and lemmings, forest Lepidoptera and grouse. Even though cyclic species have very different life histories, similarities in mechanisms related to their dynamics are apparent. In addition to high reproductive rates and density-related mortality from predators, pathogens or parasitoids, other characteristics include transgenerational reduced reproduction and dispersal with increasing-peak densities, and genetic similarity among populations. Experiments to stop cyclic dynamics and comparisons of cyclic and noncyclic populations provide some understanding but both reproduction and mortality must be considered. What determines variation in amplitude and periodicity of population outbreaks remains a mystery. © 2018 The Author(s).

Variability in primary productivity determines metapopulation dynamics

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Temporal variability in primary productivity can change habitat quality for consumer species by affecting the energy levels available as food resources. However, it remains unclear how habitat-quality fluctuations may determine the dynamics of spatially structured populations, where the effects of habitat size, quality and isolation have been customarily assessed assuming static habitats. We present the first empirical evaluation on the effects of stochastic fluctuations in primary productivity—a major outcome of ecosystem functions—on the metapopulation dynamics of a primary consumer. A unique 13-year dataset from an herbivore rodent was used to test the hypothesis that inter-annual variations in primary productivity determine spatiotemporal habitat occupancy patterns and colonization and extinction processes. Inter-annual variability in productivity and in the growing season phenology significantly influenced habitat colonization patterns and occupancy dynamics. These effects lead to changes in connectivity to other potentially occupied habitat patches, which then feed back into occupancy dynamics. According to the results, the dynamics of primary productivity accounted for more than 50% of the variation in occupancy probability, depending on patch size and landscape configuration. Evidence connecting primary productivity dynamics and spatiotemporal population processes has broad implications for metapopulation persistence in fluctuating and changing environments. PMID:27053739

Variability in primary productivity determines metapopulation dynamics.

PubMed

Fernández, Néstor; Román, Jacinto; Delibes, Miguel

2016-04-13

Temporal variability in primary productivity can change habitat quality for consumer species by affecting the energy levels available as food resources. However, it remains unclear how habitat-quality fluctuations may determine the dynamics of spatially structured populations, where the effects of habitat size, quality and isolation have been customarily assessed assuming static habitats. We present the first empirical evaluation on the effects of stochastic fluctuations in primary productivity--a major outcome of ecosystem functions--on the metapopulation dynamics of a primary consumer. A unique 13-year dataset from an herbivore rodent was used to test the hypothesis that inter-annual variations in primary productivity determine spatiotemporal habitat occupancy patterns and colonization and extinction processes. Inter-annual variability in productivity and in the growing season phenology significantly influenced habitat colonization patterns and occupancy dynamics. These effects lead to changes in connectivity to other potentially occupied habitat patches, which then feed back into occupancy dynamics. According to the results, the dynamics of primary productivity accounted for more than 50% of the variation in occupancy probability, depending on patch size and landscape configuration. Evidence connecting primary productivity dynamics and spatiotemporal population processes has broad implications for metapopulation persistence in fluctuating and changing environments. © 2016 The Authors.

A juvenile-adult population model: climate change, cannibalism, reproductive synchrony, and strong Allee effects.

PubMed

Veprauskas, Amy; Cushing, J M

2017-03-01

We study a discrete time, structured population dynamic model that is motivated by recent field observations concerning certain life history strategies of colonial-nesting gulls, specifically the glaucous-winged gull (Larus glaucescens). The model focuses on mechanisms hypothesized to play key roles in a population's response to degraded environment resources, namely, increased cannibalism and adjustments in reproductive timing. We explore the dynamic consequences of these mechanics using a juvenile-adult structure model. Mathematically, the model is unusual in that it involves a high co-dimension bifurcation at [Formula: see text] which, in turn, leads to a dynamic dichotomy between equilibrium states and synchronized oscillatory states. We give diagnostic criteria that determine which dynamic is stable. We also explore strong Allee effects caused by positive feedback mechanisms in the model and the possible consequence that a cannibalistic population can survive when a non-cannibalistic population cannot.

Adaptive Sex Determination and Population Dynamics in a Brackish-water Amphipod

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watt, Penelope J.; Adams, Jonathan

1993-09-01

Gammarus duebeni is a sexually dimorphic amphipod with an unusual and environmentally mediated sex determining system. In seasonal populations, environmental sex determination (ESD) is selectively advantageous and males and females are produced at different times of the year, but it has been predicted that where generations overlap or the breeding season is long, ESD should no longer have a selective advantage over genetic mechanisms of sex determination and males and females should be produced simultaneously. The dynamics of a supposedly bivoltine population at Totton Marsh on the south coast of England were investigated. The field study showed that the breeding season at Totton was not in fact bivoltine but long, extending through most of the year with a short break in early summer. Population sex ratio fluctuated seasonally: this pattern appears to be the product of differences in production of males and females rather than growth or mortality. Thus, contrary to expectations, ESD does occur in this population. Photoperiod is the cue for sex determination in the laboratory, but in the field this alone could not account for the observed pattern of male and female production at Totton Marsh. Another major variable must be involved and it is proposed that it also has an influence on other G. duebeni populations.

Population models for passerine birds: structure, parameterization, and analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Noon, B.R.; Sauer, J.R.; McCullough, D.R.; Barrett, R.H.

1992-01-01

Population models have great potential as management tools, as they use infonnation about the life history of a species to summarize estimates of fecundity and survival into a description of population change. Models provide a framework for projecting future populations, determining the effects of management decisions on future population dynamics, evaluating extinction probabilities, and addressing a variety of questions of ecological and evolutionary interest. Even when insufficient information exists to allow complete identification of the model, the modelling procedure is useful because it forces the investigator to consider the life history of the species when determining what parameters should be estimated from field studies and provides a context for evaluating the relative importance of demographic parameters. Models have been little used in the study of the population dynamics of passerine birds because of: (1) widespread misunderstandings of the model structures and parameterizations, (2) a lack of knowledge of life histories of many species, (3) difficulties in obtaining statistically reliable estimates of demographic parameters for most passerine species, and (4) confusion about functional relationships among demographic parameters. As a result, studies of passerine demography are often designed inappropriately and fail to provide essential data. We review appropriate models for passerine bird populations and illustrate their possible uses in evaluating the effects of management or other environmental influences on population dynamics. We identify environmental influences on population dynamics. We identify parameters that must be estimated from field data, briefly review existing statistical methods for obtaining valid estimates, and evaluate the present status of knowledge of these parameters.

Individual movement behavior, matrix heterogeneity, and the dynamics of spatially structured populations.

PubMed

Revilla, Eloy; Wiegand, Thorsten

2008-12-09

The dynamics of spatially structured populations is characterized by within- and between-patch processes. The available theory describes the latter with simple distance-dependent functions that depend on landscape properties such as interpatch distance or patch size. Despite its potential role, we lack a good mechanistic understanding of how the movement of individuals between patches affects the dynamics of these populations. We used the theoretical framework provided by movement ecology to make a direct representation of the processes determining how individuals connect local populations in a spatially structured population of Iberian lynx. Interpatch processes depended on the heterogeneity of the matrix where patches are embedded and the parameters defining individual movement behavior. They were also very sensitive to the dynamic demographic variables limiting the time moving, the within-patch dynamics of available settlement sites (both spatiotemporally heterogeneous) and the response of individuals to the perceived risk while moving. These context-dependent dynamic factors are an inherent part of the movement process, producing connectivities and dispersal kernels whose variability is affected by other demographic processes. Mechanistic representations of interpatch movements, such as the one provided by the movement-ecology framework, permit the dynamic interaction of birth-death processes and individual movement behavior, thus improving our understanding of stochastic spatially structured populations.

How Ebola impacts social dynamics in gorillas: a multistate modelling approach.

PubMed

Genton, Céline; Pierre, Amandine; Cristescu, Romane; Lévréro, Florence; Gatti, Sylvain; Pierre, Jean-Sébastien; Ménard, Nelly; Le Gouar, Pascaline

2015-01-01

Emerging infectious diseases can induce rapid changes in population dynamics and threaten population persistence. In socially structured populations, the transfers of individuals between social units, for example, from breeding groups to non-breeding groups, shape population dynamics. We suggest that diseases may affect these crucial transfers. We aimed to determine how disturbance by an emerging disease affects demographic rates of gorillas, especially transfer rates within populations and immigration rates into populations. We compared social dynamics and key demographic parameters in a gorilla population affected by Ebola using a long-term observation data set including pre-, during and post-outbreak periods. We also studied a population of undetermined epidemiological status in order to assess whether this population was affected by the disease. We developed a multistate model that can handle transition between social units while optimizing the number of states. During the Ebola outbreak, social dynamics displayed increased transfers from a breeding to a non-breeding status for both males and females. Six years after the outbreak, demographic and most of social dynamics parameters had returned to their initial rates, suggesting a certain resilience in the response to disruption. The formation of breeding groups increased just after Ebola, indicating that environmental conditions were still attractive. However, population recovery was likely delayed because compensatory immigration was probably impeded by the potential impact of Ebola in the surrounding areas. The population of undetermined epidemiological status behaved similarly to the other population before Ebola. Our results highlight the need to integrate social dynamics in host-population demographic models to better understand the role of social structure in the sensitivity and the response to disease disturbances. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

PubMed

Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C

2017-07-01

Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may have played a role in driving local dynamics. More generally, we demonstrated how state-space models can be used to test evidence for population spatial structure based on survey time-series data. Our study shows the importance of considering spatially structured dynamics, as the inferences from such an approach can lead to a different ecological understanding of the drivers of population declines, and fundamentally different management actions to restore populations. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Cancer dormancy and criticality from a game theory perspective.

PubMed

Wu, Amy; Liao, David; Kirilin, Vlamimir; Lin, Ke-Chih; Torga, Gonzalo; Qu, Junle; Liu, Liyu; Sturm, James C; Pienta, Kenneth; Austin, Robert

2018-01-01

The physics of cancer dormancy, the time between initial cancer treatment and re-emergence after a protracted period, is a puzzle. Cancer cells interact with host cells via complex, non-linear population dynamics, which can lead to very non-intuitive but perhaps deterministic and understandable progression dynamics of cancer and dormancy. We explore here the dynamics of host-cancer cell populations in the presence of (1) payoffs gradients and (2) perturbations due to cell migration. We determine to what extent the time-dependence of the populations can be quantitively understood in spite of the underlying complexity of the individual agents and model the phenomena of dormancy.

A Markov chain model for studying suicide dynamics: an illustration of the Rose theorem

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background High-risk strategies would only have a modest effect on suicide prevention within a population. It is best to incorporate both high-risk and population-based strategies to prevent suicide. This study aims to compare the effectiveness of suicide prevention between high-risk and population-based strategies. Methods A Markov chain illness and death model is proposed to determine suicide dynamic in a population and examine its effectiveness for reducing the number of suicides by modifying certain parameters of the model. Assuming a population with replacement, the suicide risk of the population was estimated by determining the final state of the Markov model. Results The model shows that targeting the whole population for suicide prevention is more effective than reducing risk in the high-risk tail of the distribution of psychological distress (i.e. the mentally ill). Conclusions The results of this model reinforce the essence of the Rose theorem that lowering the suicidal risk in the population at large may be more effective than reducing the high risk in a small population. PMID:24948330

Dispersal, density dependence, and population dynamics of a fungal microbe on leaf surfaces.

PubMed

Woody, Scott T; Ives, Anthony R; Nordheim, Erik V; Andrews, John H

2007-06-01

Despite the ubiquity and importance of microbes in nature, little is known about their natural population dynamics, especially for those that occupy terrestrial habitats. Here we investigate the dynamics of the yeast-like fungus Aureobasidium pullulans (Ap) on apple leaves in an orchard. We asked three questions. (1) Is variation in fungal population density among leaves caused by variation in leaf carrying capacities and strong density-dependent population growth that maintains densities near carrying capacity? (2) Do resident populations have competitive advantages over immigrant cells? (3) Do Ap dynamics differ at different times during the growing season? To address these questions, we performed two experiments at different times in the growing season. Both experiments used a 2 x 2 factorial design: treatment 1 removed fungal cells from leaves to reveal density-dependent population growth, and treatment 2 inoculated leaves with an Ap strain engineered to express green fluorescent protein (GFP), which made it possible to track the fate of immigrant cells. The experiments showed that natural populations of Ap vary greatly in density due to sustained differences in carrying capacities among leaves. The maintenance of populations close to carrying capacities indicates strong density-dependent processes. Furthermore, resident populations are strongly competitive against immigrants, while immigrants have little impact on residents. Finally, statistical models showed high population growth rates of resident cells in one experiment but not in the other, suggesting that Ap experiences relatively "good" and "bad" periods for population growth. This picture of Ap dynamics conforms to commonly held, but rarely demonstrated, expectations of microbe dynamics in nature. It also highlights the importance of local processes, as opposed to immigration, in determining the abundance and dynamics of microbes on surfaces in terrestrial systems.

Growth dynamics and the evolution of cooperation in microbial populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cremer, Jonas; Melbinger, Anna; Frey, Erwin

2012-02-01

Microbes providing public goods are widespread in nature despite running the risk of being exploited by free-riders. However, the precise ecological factors supporting cooperation are still puzzling. Following recent experiments, we consider the role of population growth and the repetitive fragmentation of populations into new colonies mimicking simple microbial life-cycles. Individual-based modeling reveals that demographic fluctuations, which lead to a large variance in the composition of colonies, promote cooperation. Biased by population dynamics these fluctuations result in two qualitatively distinct regimes of robust cooperation under repetitive fragmentation into groups. First, if the level of cooperation exceeds a threshold, cooperators will take over the whole population. Second, cooperators can also emerge from a single mutant leading to a robust coexistence between cooperators and free-riders. We find frequency and size of population bottlenecks, and growth dynamics to be the major ecological factors determining the regimes and thereby the evolutionary pathway towards cooperation.

Feedback between Population and Evolutionary Dynamics Determines the Fate of Social Microbial Populations

PubMed Central

Sanchez, Alvaro; Gore, Jeff

2013-01-01

The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50–100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators “spiral” to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the demographic fate of those species that rely on cooperation for their survival. PMID:23637571

Assessing the importance of self-regulating mechanisms in diamondback moth population dynamics: application of discrete mathematical models.

PubMed

Nedorezov, Lev V; Löhr, Bernhard L; Sadykova, Dinara L

2008-10-07

The applicability of discrete mathematical models for the description of diamondback moth (DBM) (Plutella xylostella L.) population dynamics was investigated. The parameter values for several well-known discrete time models (Skellam, Moran-Ricker, Hassell, Maynard Smith-Slatkin, and discrete logistic models) were estimated for an experimental time series from a highland cabbage-growing area in eastern Kenya. For all sets of parameters, boundaries of confidence domains were determined. Maximum calculated birth rates varied between 1.086 and 1.359 when empirical values were used for parameter estimation. After fitting of the models to the empirical trajectory, all birth rate values resulted considerably higher (1.742-3.526). The carrying capacity was determined between 13.0 and 39.9DBM/plant, after fitting of the models these values declined to 6.48-9.3, all values well within the range encountered empirically. The application of the Durbin-Watson criteria for comparison of theoretical and experimental population trajectories produced negative correlations with all models. A test of residual value groupings for randomness showed that their distribution is non-stochastic. In consequence, we conclude that DBM dynamics cannot be explained as a result of intra-population self-regulative mechanisms only (=by any of the models tested) and that more comprehensive models are required for the explanation of DBM population dynamics.

Recasting a model atomistic glassformer as a system of icosahedra

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pinney, Rhiannon; Bristol Centre for Complexity Science, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TS; Liverpool, Tanniemola B.

2015-12-28

We consider a binary Lennard-Jones glassformer whose super-Arrhenius dynamics are correlated with the formation of icosahedral structures. Upon cooling, these icosahedra organize into mesoclusters. We recast this glassformer as an effective system of icosahedra which we describe with a population dynamics model. This model we parameterize with data from the temperature regime accessible to molecular dynamics simulations. We then use the model to determine the population of icosahedra in mesoclusters at arbitrary temperature. Using simulation data to incorporate dynamics into the model, we predict relaxation behavior at temperatures inaccessible to conventional approaches. Our model predicts super-Arrhenius dynamics whose relaxation timemore » remains finite for non-zero temperature.« less

Causes and consequences of complex population dynamics in an annual plant, Cardamine pensylvanica

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crone, E.E.

1995-11-08

The relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining the population dynamics of plants has been widely debated with little resolution. In this thesis, the author explores the effects of density-dependent population regulation on population dynamics in Cardamine pensylvanica, an annual plant. In the first chapter, she shows that experimental populations of C. pensylvanica cycled from high to low density in controlled constant-environment conditions. These cycles could not be explained by external environmental changes or simple models of direct density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}]), but they could be explained by delayed density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{submore » t}, N{sub t+1}]). In the second chapter, she shows that the difference in the stability properties of population growth models with and without delayed density dependence is due to the presence of Hopf as well as slip bifurcations from stable to chaotic population dynamics. She also measures delayed density dependence due to effects of parental density on offspring quality in C. pensylvanica and shows that this is large enough to be the cause of the population dynamics observed in C. pensylvanica. In the third chapter, the author extends her analyses of density-dependent population growth models to include interactions between competing species. In the final chapter, she compares the effects of fixed spatial environmental variation and variation in population size on the evolutionary response of C. pensylvanica populations.« less

Cassin's Sparrow (Aimophila cassinii) status assessment and conservation plan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruth, Janet M.

2000-01-01

The greatest needs are for determining of the causes of significant declines where they occur, determining of the effects of various management activities on Cassin’s Sparrow throughout its range, improved assessments of population and trends, and a better understanding of the annual population and distribution dynamics of this species, which shows such dramatic annual distributional fluctuations.

The cultural implications of growth: Modeling nonlinear interaction of trait selection and population dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antoci, Angelo; Galeotti, Marcello; Russu, Paolo; Luigi Sacco, Pier

2018-05-01

In this paper, we study a nonlinear model of the interaction between trait selection and population dynamics, building on previous work of Ghirlanda et al. [Theor. Popul. Biol. 77, 181-188 (2010)] and Antoci et al. [Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 58, 92-106 (2018)]. We establish some basic properties of the model dynamics and present some simulations of the fine-grained structure of alternative dynamic regimes for chosen combinations of parameters. The role of the parameters that govern the reinforcement/corruption of maladaptive vs. adaptive traits is of special importance in determining the model's dynamic evolution. The main implication of this result is the need to pay special attention to the structural forces that may favor the emergence and consolidation of maladaptive traits in contemporary socio-economies, as it is the case, for example, for the stimulation of dysfunctional consumption habits and lifestyles in the pursuit of short-term profits.

The cultural implications of growth: Modeling nonlinear interaction of trait selection and population dynamics.

PubMed

Antoci, Angelo; Galeotti, Marcello; Russu, Paolo; Luigi Sacco, Pier

2018-05-01

In this paper, we study a nonlinear model of the interaction between trait selection and population dynamics, building on previous work of Ghirlanda et al. [Theor. Popul. Biol. 77, 181-188 (2010)] and Antoci et al. [Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 58, 92-106 (2018)]. We establish some basic properties of the model dynamics and present some simulations of the fine-grained structure of alternative dynamic regimes for chosen combinations of parameters. The role of the parameters that govern the reinforcement/corruption of maladaptive vs. adaptive traits is of special importance in determining the model's dynamic evolution. The main implication of this result is the need to pay special attention to the structural forces that may favor the emergence and consolidation of maladaptive traits in contemporary socio-economies, as it is the case, for example, for the stimulation of dysfunctional consumption habits and lifestyles in the pursuit of short-term profits.

The effect of seasonal harvesting on stage-structured population models.

PubMed

Tang, Sanyi; Chen, Lansun

2004-04-01

In most models of population dynamics, increases in population due to birth are assumed to be time-independent, but many species reproduce only during a single period of the year. We propose an exploited single-species model with stage structure for the dynamics in a fish population for which births occur in a single pulse once per time period. Since birth pulse populations are often characterized with a discrete time dynamical system determined by its Poincaré map, we explore the consequences of harvest timing to equilibrium population sizes under seasonal dependence and obtain threshold conditions for their stability, and show that the timing of harvesting has a strong impact on the persistence of the fish population, on the volume of mature fish stock and on the maximum annual-sustainable yield. Moreover, our results imply that the population can sustain much higher harvest rates if the mature fish is removed as early in the season (after the birth pulse) as possible. Further, the effects of harvesting effort and harvest timing on the dynamical complexity are also investigated. Bifurcation diagrams are constructed with the birth rate (or harvesting effort or harvest timing) as the bifurcation parameter, and these are observed to display rich structure, including chaotic bands with periodic windows, pitch-fork and tangent bifurcations, non-unique dynamics (meaning that several attractors coexist) and attractor crisis. This suggests that birth pulse, in effect, provides a natural period or cyclicity that makes the dynamical behavior more complex.

Killer whale nuclear genome and mtDNA reveal widespread population bottleneck during the last glacial maximum.

PubMed

Moura, Andre E; Janse van Rensburg, Charlene; Pilot, Malgorzata; Tehrani, Arman; Best, Peter B; Thornton, Meredith; Plön, Stephanie; de Bruyn, P J Nico; Worley, Kim C; Gibbs, Richard A; Dahlheim, Marilyn E; Hoelzel, Alan Rus

2014-05-01

Ecosystem function and resilience is determined by the interactions and independent contributions of individual species. Apex predators play a disproportionately determinant role through their influence and dependence on the dynamics of prey species. Their demographic fluctuations are thus likely to reflect changes in their respective ecological communities and habitat. Here, we investigate the historical population dynamics of the killer whale based on draft nuclear genome data for the Northern Hemisphere and mtDNA data worldwide. We infer a relatively stable population size throughout most of the Pleistocene, followed by an order of magnitude decline and bottleneck during the Weichselian glacial period. Global mtDNA data indicate that while most populations declined, at least one population retained diversity in a stable, productive ecosystem off southern Africa. We conclude that environmental changes during the last glacial period promoted the decline of a top ocean predator, that these events contributed to the pattern of diversity among extant populations, and that the relatively high diversity of a population currently in productive, stable habitat off South Africa suggests a role for ocean productivity in the widespread decline.

Dynamic Properties of the Alkaline Vesicle Population at Hippocampal Synapses

PubMed Central

Röther, Mareike; Brauner, Jan M.; Ebert, Katrin; Welzel, Oliver; Jung, Jasmin; Bauereiss, Anna; Kornhuber, Johannes; Groemer, Teja W.

2014-01-01

In compensatory endocytosis, scission of vesicles from the plasma membrane to the cytoplasm is a prerequisite for intravesicular reacidification and accumulation of neurotransmitter molecules. Here, we provide time-resolved measurements of the dynamics of the alkaline vesicle population which appears upon endocytic retrieval. Using fast perfusion pH-cycling in live-cell microscopy, synapto-pHluorin expressing rat hippocampal neurons were electrically stimulated. We found that the relative size of the alkaline vesicle population depended significantly on the electrical stimulus size: With increasing number of action potentials the relative size of the alkaline vesicle population expanded. In contrast to that, increasing the stimulus frequency reduced the relative size of the population of alkaline vesicles. Measurement of the time constant for reacification and calculation of the time constant for endocytosis revealed that both time constants were variable with regard to the stimulus condition. Furthermore, we show that the dynamics of the alkaline vesicle population can be predicted by a simple mathematical model. In conclusion, here a novel methodical approach to analyze dynamic properties of alkaline vesicles is presented and validated as a convenient method for the detection of intracellular events. Using this method we show that the population of alkaline vesicles is highly dynamic and depends both on stimulus strength and frequency. Our results implicate that determination of the alkaline vesicle population size may provide new insights into the kinetics of endocytic retrieval. PMID:25079223

REVIEW OF SIMULATION METHODS FOR SPATIALLY-EXPLICIT POPULATION-LEVEL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Factors that significantly impact population dynamics, such as resource availability and exposure to stressors, frequently vary over space and thereby determine the heterogeneous spatial distributions of organisms. Considering this fact, the US Environmental Protection Agency's ...

Exploring Population Admixture Dynamics via Empirical and Simulated Genome-wide Distribution of Ancestral Chromosomal Segments

PubMed Central

Jin, Wenfei; Wang, Sijia; Wang, Haifeng; Jin, Li; Xu, Shuhua

2012-01-01

The processes of genetic admixture determine the haplotype structure and linkage disequilibrium patterns of the admixed population, which is important for medical and evolutionary studies. However, most previous studies do not consider the inherent complexity of admixture processes. Here we proposed two approaches to explore population admixture dynamics, and we demonstrated, by analyzing genome-wide empirical and simulated data, that the approach based on the distribution of chromosomal segments of distinct ancestry (CSDAs) was more powerful than that based on the distribution of individual ancestry proportions. Analysis of 1,890 African Americans showed that a continuous gene flow model, in which the African American population continuously received gene flow from European populations over about 14 generations, best explained the admixture dynamics of African Americans among several putative models. Interestingly, we observed that some African Americans had much more European ancestry than the simulated samples, indicating substructures of local ancestries in African Americans that could have been caused by individuals from some particular lineages having repeatedly admixed with people of European ancestry. In contrast, the admixture dynamics of Mexicans could be explained by a gradual admixture model in which the Mexican population continuously received gene flow from both European and Amerindian populations over about 24 generations. Our results also indicated that recent gene flows from Sub-Saharan Africans have contributed to the gene pool of Middle Eastern populations such as Mozabite, Bedouin, and Palestinian. In summary, this study not only provides approaches to explore population admixture dynamics, but also advances our understanding on population history of African Americans, Mexicans, and Middle Eastern populations. PMID:23103229

Estimation of mussel population response to hydrologic alteration in a southeastern U.S. stream

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, J.T.; Wisniewski, J.M.; Shea, C.P.; Rhett, Jackson C.

2011-01-01

The southeastern United States has experienced severe, recurrent drought, rapid human population growth, and increasing agricultural irrigation during recent decades, resulting in greater demand for the water resources. During the same time period, freshwater mussels (Unioniformes) in the region have experienced substantial population declines. Consequently, there is growing interest in determining how mussel population declines are related to activities associated with water resource development. Determining the causes of mussel population declines requires, in part, an understanding of the factors influencing mussel population dynamics. We developed Pradel reverse-time, tag-recapture models to estimate survival, recruitment, and population growth rates for three federally endangered mussel species in the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin, Georgia. The models were parameterized using mussel tag-recapture data collected over five consecutive years from Sawhatchee Creek, located in southwestern Georgia. Model estimates indicated that mussel survival was strongly and negatively related to high flows during the summer, whereas recruitment was strongly and positively related to flows during the spring and summer. Using these models, we simulated mussel population dynamics under historic (1940-1969) and current (1980-2008) flow regimes and under increasing levels of water use to evaluate the relative effectiveness of alternative minimum flow regulations. The simulations indicated that the probability of simulated mussel population extinction was at least 8 times greater under current hydrologic regimes. In addition, simulations of mussel extinction under varying levels of water use indicated that the relative risk of extinction increased with increased water use across a range of minimum flow regulations. The simulation results also indicated that our estimates of the effects of water use on mussel extinction were influenced by the assumptions about the dynamics of the system, highlighting the need for further study of mussel population dynamics. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC (outside the USA).

Bayesian Inference on the Effect of Density Dependence and Weather on a Guanaco Population from Chile

PubMed Central

Zubillaga, María; Skewes, Oscar; Soto, Nicolás; Rabinovich, Jorge E.; Colchero, Fernando

2014-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms that drive population dynamics is fundamental for management of wild populations. The guanaco (Lama guanicoe) is one of two wild camelid species in South America. We evaluated the effects of density dependence and weather variables on population regulation based on a time series of 36 years of population sampling of guanacos in Tierra del Fuego, Chile. The population density varied between 2.7 and 30.7 guanaco/km2, with an apparent monotonic growth during the first 25 years; however, in the last 10 years the population has shown large fluctuations, suggesting that it might have reached its carrying capacity. We used a Bayesian state-space framework and model selection to determine the effect of density and environmental variables on guanaco population dynamics. Our results show that the population is under density dependent regulation and that it is currently fluctuating around an average carrying capacity of 45,000 guanacos. We also found a significant positive effect of previous winter temperature while sheep density has a strong negative effect on the guanaco population growth. We conclude that there are significant density dependent processes and that climate as well as competition with domestic species have important effects determining the population size of guanacos, with important implications for management and conservation. PMID:25514510

Bayesian inference on the effect of density dependence and weather on a guanaco population from Chile.

PubMed

Zubillaga, María; Skewes, Oscar; Soto, Nicolás; Rabinovich, Jorge E; Colchero, Fernando

2014-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms that drive population dynamics is fundamental for management of wild populations. The guanaco (Lama guanicoe) is one of two wild camelid species in South America. We evaluated the effects of density dependence and weather variables on population regulation based on a time series of 36 years of population sampling of guanacos in Tierra del Fuego, Chile. The population density varied between 2.7 and 30.7 guanaco/km2, with an apparent monotonic growth during the first 25 years; however, in the last 10 years the population has shown large fluctuations, suggesting that it might have reached its carrying capacity. We used a Bayesian state-space framework and model selection to determine the effect of density and environmental variables on guanaco population dynamics. Our results show that the population is under density dependent regulation and that it is currently fluctuating around an average carrying capacity of 45,000 guanacos. We also found a significant positive effect of previous winter temperature while sheep density has a strong negative effect on the guanaco population growth. We conclude that there are significant density dependent processes and that climate as well as competition with domestic species have important effects determining the population size of guanacos, with important implications for management and conservation.

[Modelling of selection acting upon the pleioptropic locus in an asynchronous population].

PubMed

Zhdanov, O L; Frisman, E Ia

2014-08-01

We created and examined a mathematical model describing the size and genetic composition dynamics in a population with two age classes, where the survival of both zygotes and adult individuals is determined by one pleioptropic locus. Even under present limitations, as the outside effects of a complex multigenic system are reduced to the case of single locus, our model demonstrates a wide range of different evolutionary scenarios for possible changes in the population dynamics. An increase in the reproductive potential and survival is accompanied by a transition from stable to oscillating population numbers. However, the evolutionary growth of these parameters may be nonmonotonic and may fluctuate significantly. In the case of antagonistic pleioptropy, an increase in one of these parameters usually leads to a predictable decrease in the other. This, in turn, may even stabilize the numbers and genetic compositions of the age groups. We demonstrated that selection acting on later stages of the life cycle is accompanied by destabilization of the Hardy-Weinberg equilibriums that link allele and genotype frequencies. We obtained a balance ratio, which allowed us to compare the combined fitness of the genotypes and to demonstrate that selection leads to the exclusion of the least adapted genotypes. Initial conditionsmay in some cases determine the genetic composition and pattern of population size dynamics.

Mammal population regulation, keystone processes and ecosystem dynamics.

PubMed Central

Sinclair, A R E

2003-01-01

The theory of regulation in animal populations is fundamental to understanding the dynamics of populations, the causes of mortality and how natural selection shapes the life history of species. In mammals, the great range in body size allows us to see how allometric relationships affect the mode of regulation. Resource limitation is the fundamental cause of regulation. Top-down limitation through predators is determined by four factors: (i). body size; (ii). the diversity of predators and prey in the system; (iii). whether prey are resident or migratory; and (iv). the presence of alternative prey for predators. Body size in mammals has two important consequences. First, mammals, particularly large species, can act as keystones that determine the diversity of an ecosystem. I show how keystone processes can, in principle, be measured using the example of the wildebeest in the Serengeti ecosystem. Second, mammals act as ecological landscapers by altering vegetation succession. Mammals alter physical structure, ecological function and species diversity in most terrestrial biomes. In general, there is a close interaction between allometry, population regulation, life history and ecosystem dynamics. These relationships are relevant to applied aspects of conservation and pest management. PMID:14561329

Population growth rates: issues and an application.

PubMed Central

Godfray, H Charles J; Rees, Mark

2002-01-01

Current issues in population dynamics are discussed in the context of The Royal Society Discussion Meeting 'Population growth rate: determining factors and role in population regulation'. In particular, different views on the centrality of population growth rates to the study of population dynamics and the role of experiments and theory are explored. Major themes emerging include the role of modern statistical techniques in bringing together experimental and theoretical studies, the importance of long-term experimentation and the need for ecology to have model systems, and the value of population growth rate as a means of understanding and predicting population change. The last point is illustrated by the application of a recently introduced technique, integral projection modelling, to study the population growth rate of a monocarpic perennial plant, its elasticities to different life-history components and the evolution of an evolutionarily stable strategy size at flowering. PMID:12396521

Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

USGS Publications Warehouse

McEachern, Kathryn; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Ellis, Martha M.; Morris, William F.; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlen, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer I.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ganesan, Rengaian; Thorpe, Andrea S.; Menges, Eric S.

2013-01-01

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

PubMed

Crone, Elizabeth E; Ellis, Martha M; Morris, William F; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlén, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N; Knight, Tiffany M; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer L; Doak, Daniel F; Ganesan, Rengaian; McEachern, Kathyrn; Thorpe, Andrea S; Menges, Eric S

2013-10-01

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Population dynamics of aberrant chromosome 1 in mice.

PubMed

Sabantsev, I; Spitsin, O; Agulnik, S; Ruvinsky, A

1993-05-01

Natural populations of two semispecies of house mouse, Mus musculus domesticus and M.m. musculus, were found to be polymorphic for an aberrant chromosome 1 bearing a large inserted block of homogeneously staining heterochromatin. Strong meiotic drive for the aberrant chromosome from M.m. musculus was previously observed in heterozygous female mice. There are at least three meiotic drive levels determined by different allelic variants of distorter. Homozygotes had low viability and females showed low fertility. Both homo- and heterozygous males had normal fertility and their segregation patterns did not deviate from normal. Computer simulations were performed of the dynamics of aberrant chromosome 1 in demes and populations. The data demonstrate that a spontaneous mutation (inversion) of an aberrant chromosome 1, once arisen, has a high probability of spreading in a population at high coefficients of meiotic drive and migration. In the long-term, the population attains a stationary state which is determined by the drive level and migration intensity. The state of stable genotypic equilibrium is independent of deme and population size, as well as of the initial concentration of the aberrant chromosome. As populations initially polymorphic for the distorters approach the stationary state, the stronger distorter is eliminated. The frequencies of the aberrant chromosome determined by computer analysis agree well with those obtained for the studied Asian M.m. musculus populations. The evolutionary pathways for the origin and fixation of the aberrant chromosome in natural populations are considered.

WEAKLY SYNCHRYRONIZED SUBPOPULATION DYNAMICS IN WISCONSIN FROGS AND TOADS

EPA Science Inventory

Spatial synchrony in population dynamics is a topic of increasing interest in basic and applied ecology. We used data from 18 years of frog and toad calling surveys conducted throughout Wisconsin to determine the level of intraspecific synchrony among survey sites, and the relat...

Estimating Allee dynamics before they can be observed: polar bears as a case study.

PubMed

Molnár, Péter K; Lewis, Mark A; Derocher, Andrew E

2014-01-01

Allee effects are an important component in the population dynamics of numerous species. Accounting for these Allee effects in population viability analyses generally requires estimates of low-density population growth rates, but such data are unavailable for most species and particularly difficult to obtain for large mammals. Here, we present a mechanistic modeling framework that allows estimating the expected low-density growth rates under a mate-finding Allee effect before the Allee effect occurs or can be observed. The approach relies on representing the mechanisms causing the Allee effect in a process-based model, which can be parameterized and validated from data on the mechanisms rather than data on population growth. We illustrate the approach using polar bears (Ursus maritimus), and estimate their expected low-density growth by linking a mating dynamics model to a matrix projection model. The Allee threshold, defined as the population density below which growth becomes negative, is shown to depend on age-structure, sex ratio, and the life history parameters determining reproduction and survival. The Allee threshold is thus both density- and frequency-dependent. Sensitivity analyses of the Allee threshold show that different combinations of the parameters determining reproduction and survival can lead to differing Allee thresholds, even if these differing combinations imply the same stable-stage population growth rate. The approach further shows how mate-limitation can induce long transient dynamics, even in populations that eventually grow to carrying capacity. Applying the models to the overharvested low-density polar bear population of Viscount Melville Sound, Canada, shows that a mate-finding Allee effect is a plausible mechanism for slow recovery of this population. Our approach is generalizable to any mating system and life cycle, and could aid proactive management and conservation strategies, for example, by providing a priori estimates of minimum conservation targets for rare species or minimum eradication targets for pests and invasive species.

Estimating Allee Dynamics before They Can Be Observed: Polar Bears as a Case Study

PubMed Central

Molnár, Péter K.; Lewis, Mark A.; Derocher, Andrew E.

2014-01-01

Allee effects are an important component in the population dynamics of numerous species. Accounting for these Allee effects in population viability analyses generally requires estimates of low-density population growth rates, but such data are unavailable for most species and particularly difficult to obtain for large mammals. Here, we present a mechanistic modeling framework that allows estimating the expected low-density growth rates under a mate-finding Allee effect before the Allee effect occurs or can be observed. The approach relies on representing the mechanisms causing the Allee effect in a process-based model, which can be parameterized and validated from data on the mechanisms rather than data on population growth. We illustrate the approach using polar bears (Ursus maritimus), and estimate their expected low-density growth by linking a mating dynamics model to a matrix projection model. The Allee threshold, defined as the population density below which growth becomes negative, is shown to depend on age-structure, sex ratio, and the life history parameters determining reproduction and survival. The Allee threshold is thus both density- and frequency-dependent. Sensitivity analyses of the Allee threshold show that different combinations of the parameters determining reproduction and survival can lead to differing Allee thresholds, even if these differing combinations imply the same stable-stage population growth rate. The approach further shows how mate-limitation can induce long transient dynamics, even in populations that eventually grow to carrying capacity. Applying the models to the overharvested low-density polar bear population of Viscount Melville Sound, Canada, shows that a mate-finding Allee effect is a plausible mechanism for slow recovery of this population. Our approach is generalizable to any mating system and life cycle, and could aid proactive management and conservation strategies, for example, by providing a priori estimates of minimum conservation targets for rare species or minimum eradication targets for pests and invasive species. PMID:24427306

Nonlinear dynamics of trions under strong optical excitation in monolayer MoSe2.

PubMed

Ye, Jialiang; Yan, Tengfei; Niu, Binghui; Li, Ying; Zhang, Xinhui

2018-02-05

By employing ultrafast transient reflection measurements based on two-color pump-probe spectroscopy, the population and valley polarization dynamics of trions in monolayer MoSe 2 were investigated at relatively high excitation densities under near-resonant excitation. Both the nonlinear dynamic photobleaching of the trion resonance and the redshift of the exciton resonance were found to be responsible for the excitation-energy- and density-dependent transient reflection change as a result of many-body interactions. Furthermore, from the polarization-resolved measurements, it was revealed that the initial fast population and polarization decay process upon strong photoexcitation observed for trions was determined by trion formation, transient phase-space filling and the short valley lifetime of excitons. The results provide a basic understanding of the nonlinear dynamics of population and valley depolarization of trions, as well as exciton-trion correlation in atomically thin MoSe 2 and other transition metal dichalcogenide materials.

SPATIAL EXPLICIT POPULATION MODELS FOR RISK ASSESSMENT: COMMON LOONS AND MERCURY AS A CASE STUDY

EPA Science Inventory

Factors that significantly impact population dynamics, such as resource availability and exposure to stressors, frequently vary over space and thereby determine the heterogeneous spatial distributions of organisms. Considering this fact, the US Environmental Protection Agency's ...

Linking genetic and environmental factors in amphibian disease risk

PubMed Central

Savage, Anna E; Becker, Carlos G; Zamudio, Kelly R

2015-01-01

A central question in evolutionary biology is how interactions between organisms and the environment shape genetic differentiation. The pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has caused variable population declines in the lowland leopard frog (Lithobates yavapaiensis); thus, disease has potentially shaped, or been shaped by, host genetic diversity. Environmental factors can also influence both amphibian immunity and Bd virulence, confounding our ability to assess the genetic effects on disease dynamics. Here, we used genetics, pathogen dynamics, and environmental data to characterize L. yavapaiensis populations, estimate migration, and determine relative contributions of genetic and environmental factors in predicting Bd dynamics. We found that the two uninfected populations belonged to a single genetic deme, whereas each infected population was genetically unique. We detected an outlier locus that deviated from neutral expectations and was significantly correlated with mortality within populations. Across populations, only environmental variables predicted infection intensity, whereas environment and genetics predicted infection prevalence, and genetic diversity alone predicted mortality. At one locality with geothermally elevated water temperatures, migration estimates revealed source–sink dynamics that have likely prevented local adaptation. We conclude that integrating genetic and environmental variation among populations provides a better understanding of Bd spatial epidemiology, generating more effective conservation management strategies for mitigating amphibian declines. PMID:26136822

Effect of Inherited Genetic Information on Stochastic Predator-Prey Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duda, Artur; Dyś, Paweł; Nowicka, Alekandra; Dudek, Mirosław R.

We discuss the Lotka-Volterra dynamics of two populations, preys and predators, in the case when the predators posses a genetic information. The genetic information is inherited according to the rules of the Penna model of genetic evolution. Each individual of the predator population is uniquely determined by sex, genotype and phenotype. In our case, the genes are represented by 8-bit integers and the phenotypes are defined with the help of the 8-state Potts model Hamiltonian. We showed that during time evolution, the population of the predators can experience a series of dynamical phase transitions which are connected with the different types of the dominant phenotypes present in the population.

The Malthusian-Darwinian dynamic and the trajectory of civilization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nekola, Jeffrey C.; Allen, Craig D.; Brown, James H.; Burger, Joseph R.; Davidson, Ana D.; Fristoe, Trevor S.; Hamilton, Marcus J.; Hammond, Sean T.; Kodric-Brown, Astrid; Mercado-Silva, Norman; Okie, Jordan G.

2013-01-01

Two interacting forces influence all populations: the Malthusian dynamic of exponential growth until resource limits are reached, and the Darwinian dynamic of innovation and adaptation to circumvent these limits through biological and/or cultural evolution. The specific manifestations of these forces in modern human society provide an important context for determining how humans can establish a sustainable relationship with the finite Earth.

Killer Whale Nuclear Genome and mtDNA Reveal Widespread Population Bottleneck during the Last Glacial Maximum

PubMed Central

Moura, Andre E.; Janse van Rensburg, Charlene; Pilot, Malgorzata; Tehrani, Arman; Best, Peter B.; Thornton, Meredith; Plön, Stephanie; de Bruyn, P.J. Nico; Worley, Kim C.; Gibbs, Richard A.; Dahlheim, Marilyn E.; Hoelzel, Alan Rus

2014-01-01

Ecosystem function and resilience is determined by the interactions and independent contributions of individual species. Apex predators play a disproportionately determinant role through their influence and dependence on the dynamics of prey species. Their demographic fluctuations are thus likely to reflect changes in their respective ecological communities and habitat. Here, we investigate the historical population dynamics of the killer whale based on draft nuclear genome data for the Northern Hemisphere and mtDNA data worldwide. We infer a relatively stable population size throughout most of the Pleistocene, followed by an order of magnitude decline and bottleneck during the Weichselian glacial period. Global mtDNA data indicate that while most populations declined, at least one population retained diversity in a stable, productive ecosystem off southern Africa. We conclude that environmental changes during the last glacial period promoted the decline of a top ocean predator, that these events contributed to the pattern of diversity among extant populations, and that the relatively high diversity of a population currently in productive, stable habitat off South Africa suggests a role for ocean productivity in the widespread decline. PMID:24497033

Population Size and Suicide in U.S. Cities: A Static and Dynamic Exploration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCall, Patricia L.; Tittle, Charles R.

2007-01-01

The relationship between city population size and suicide rates rarely has been examined directly, though scholars often assume such a relationship exists based on studies of the association between suicide rates and urbanization (percent of the population living in cities) in various social contexts. In an effort to determine the basic…

Stochasticity and Spatial Interaction Govern Stem Cell Differentiation Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Quinton; Stukalin, Evgeny; Kusuma, Sravanti; Gerecht, Sharon; Sun, Sean X.

2015-07-01

Stem cell differentiation underlies many fundamental processes such as development, tissue growth and regeneration, as well as disease progression. Understanding how stem cell differentiation is controlled in mixed cell populations is an important step in developing quantitative models of cell population dynamics. Here we focus on quantifying the role of cell-cell interactions in determining stem cell fate. Toward this, we monitor stem cell differentiation in adherent cultures on micropatterns and collect statistical cell fate data. Results show high cell fate variability and a bimodal probability distribution of stem cell fraction on small (80-140 μm diameter) micropatterns. On larger (225-500 μm diameter) micropatterns, the variability is also high but the distribution of the stem cell fraction becomes unimodal. Using a stochastic model, we analyze the differentiation dynamics and quantitatively determine the differentiation probability as a function of stem cell fraction. Results indicate that stem cells can interact and sense cellular composition in their immediate neighborhood and adjust their differentiation probability accordingly. Blocking epithelial cadherin (E-cadherin) can diminish this cell-cell contact mediated sensing. For larger micropatterns, cell motility adds a spatial dimension to the picture. Taken together, we find stochasticity and cell-cell interactions are important factors in determining cell fate in mixed cell populations.

A technique for sexing fully developed embryos and early-instar larvae of the gypsy moth

Treesearch

Gilbert Levesque

1963-01-01

Because variation in sex ratio is an important factor in the population dynamics of the gypsy moth (Porthetria dispar), it is necessary to have some means of determining the ratio of males to females in a population at the beginning of the larval period as well as in the later stages. For determining the sex of fully developed embryos and early-...

Decision Accuracy and the Role of Spatial Interaction in Opinion Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torney, Colin J.; Levin, Simon A.; Couzin, Iain D.

2013-04-01

The opinions and actions of individuals within interacting groups are frequently determined by both social and personal information. When sociality (or the pressure to conform) is strong and individual preferences are weak, groups will remain cohesive until a consensus decision is reached. When group decisions are subject to a bias, representing for example private information known by some members of the population or imperfect information known by all, then the accuracy achieved for a fixed level of bias will increase with population size. In this work we determine how the scaling between accuracy and group size can be related to the microscopic properties of the decision-making process. By simulating a spatial model of opinion dynamics we show that the relationship between the instantaneous fraction of leaders in the population ( L), system size ( N), and accuracy depends on the frequency of individual opinion switches and the level of population viscosity. When social mixing is slow, and individual opinion changes are frequent, accuracy is determined by the absolute number of informed individuals. As mixing rates increase, or the rate of opinion updates decrease, a transition occurs to a regime where accuracy is determined by the value of L√{ N}. We investigate the transition between different scaling regimes analytically by examining a well-mixed limit.

Complete Firing-Rate Response of Neurons with Complex Intrinsic Dynamics

PubMed Central

Puelma Touzel, Maximilian; Wolf, Fred

2015-01-01

The response of a neuronal population over a space of inputs depends on the intrinsic properties of its constituent neurons. Two main modes of single neuron dynamics–integration and resonance–have been distinguished. While resonator cell types exist in a variety of brain areas, few models incorporate this feature and fewer have investigated its effects. To understand better how a resonator’s frequency preference emerges from its intrinsic dynamics and contributes to its local area’s population firing rate dynamics, we analyze the dynamic gain of an analytically solvable two-degree of freedom neuron model. In the Fokker-Planck approach, the dynamic gain is intractable. The alternative Gauss-Rice approach lifts the resetting of the voltage after a spike. This allows us to derive a complete expression for the dynamic gain of a resonator neuron model in terms of a cascade of filters on the input. We find six distinct response types and use them to fully characterize the routes to resonance across all values of the relevant timescales. We find that resonance arises primarily due to slow adaptation with an intrinsic frequency acting to sharpen and adjust the location of the resonant peak. We determine the parameter regions for the existence of an intrinsic frequency and for subthreshold and spiking resonance, finding all possible intersections of the three. The expressions and analysis presented here provide an account of how intrinsic neuron dynamics shape dynamic population response properties and can facilitate the construction of an exact theory of correlations and stability of population activity in networks containing populations of resonator neurons. PMID:26720924

Evolutionary behaviour, trade-offs and cyclic and chaotic population dynamics.

PubMed

Hoyle, Andy; Bowers, Roger G; White, Andy

2011-05-01

Many studies of the evolution of life-history traits assume that the underlying population dynamical attractor is stable point equilibrium. However, evolutionary outcomes can change significantly in different circumstances. We present an analysis based on adaptive dynamics of a discrete-time demographic model involving a trade-off whose shape is also an important determinant of evolutionary behaviour. We derive an explicit expression for the fitness in the cyclic region and consequently present an adaptive dynamic analysis which is algebraic. We do this fully in the region of 2-cycles and (using a symbolic package) almost fully for 4-cycles. Simulations illustrate and verify our results. With equilibrium population dynamics, trade-offs with accelerating costs produce a continuously stable strategy (CSS) whereas trade-offs with decelerating costs produce a non-ES repellor. The transition to 2-cycles produces a discontinuous change: the appearance of an intermediate region in which branching points occur. The size of this region decreases as we move through the region of 2-cycles. There is a further discontinuous fall in the size of the branching region during the transition to 4-cycles. We extend our results numerically and with simulations to higher-period cycles and chaos. Simulations show that chaotic population dynamics can evolve from equilibrium and vice-versa.

FREQ-Seq: A Rapid, Cost-Effective, Sequencing-Based Method to Determine Allele Frequencies Directly from Mixed Populations

PubMed Central

Delaney, Nigel F.; Marx, Christopher J.

2012-01-01

Understanding evolutionary dynamics within microbial populations requires the ability to accurately follow allele frequencies through time. Here we present a rapid, cost-effective method (FREQ-Seq) that leverages Illumina next-generation sequencing for localized, quantitative allele frequency detection. Analogous to RNA-Seq, FREQ-Seq relies upon counts from the >105 reads generated per locus per time-point to determine allele frequencies. Loci of interest are directly amplified from a mixed population via two rounds of PCR using inexpensive, user-designed oligonucleotides and a bar-coded bridging primer system that can be regenerated in-house. The resulting bar-coded PCR products contain the adapters needed for Illumina sequencing, eliminating further library preparation. We demonstrate the utility of FREQ-Seq by determining the order and dynamics of beneficial alleles that arose as a microbial population, founded with an engineered strain of Methylobacterium, evolved to grow on methanol. Quantifying allele frequencies with minimal bias down to 1% abundance allowed effective analysis of SNPs, small in-dels and insertions of transposable elements. Our data reveal large-scale clonal interference during the early stages of adaptation and illustrate the utility of FREQ-Seq as a cost-effective tool for tracking allele frequencies in populations. PMID:23118913

Eco-evolutionary feedbacks, adaptive dynamics and evolutionary rescue theory

PubMed Central

Ferriere, Regis; Legendre, Stéphane

2013-01-01

Adaptive dynamics theory has been devised to account for feedbacks between ecological and evolutionary processes. Doing so opens new dimensions to and raises new challenges about evolutionary rescue. Adaptive dynamics theory predicts that successive trait substitutions driven by eco-evolutionary feedbacks can gradually erode population size or growth rate, thus potentially raising the extinction risk. Even a single trait substitution can suffice to degrade population viability drastically at once and cause ‘evolutionary suicide’. In a changing environment, a population may track a viable evolutionary attractor that leads to evolutionary suicide, a phenomenon called ‘evolutionary trapping’. Evolutionary trapping and suicide are commonly observed in adaptive dynamics models in which the smooth variation of traits causes catastrophic changes in ecological state. In the face of trapping and suicide, evolutionary rescue requires that the population overcome evolutionary threats generated by the adaptive process itself. Evolutionary repellors play an important role in determining how variation in environmental conditions correlates with the occurrence of evolutionary trapping and suicide, and what evolutionary pathways rescue may follow. In contrast with standard predictions of evolutionary rescue theory, low genetic variation may attenuate the threat of evolutionary suicide and small population sizes may facilitate escape from evolutionary traps. PMID:23209163

Sensitivity analyses for simulating pesticide impacts on honey bee colonies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We employ Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis techniques to describe the population dynamics of pesticide exposure to a honey bee colony using the VarroaPop+Pesticide model. Simulations are performed of hive population trajectories with and without pesticide exposure to determine the eff...

Pathogen dynamics during invasion and establishment of white-nose syndrome explain mechanisms of host persistence.

PubMed

Frick, Winifred F; Cheng, Tina L; Langwig, Kate E; Hoyt, Joseph R; Janicki, Amanda F; Parise, Katy L; Foster, Jeffrey T; Kilpatrick, A Marm

2017-03-01

Disease dynamics during pathogen invasion and establishment determine the impacts of disease on host populations and determine the mechanisms of host persistence. Temporal progression of prevalence and infection intensity illustrate whether tolerance, resistance, reduced transmission, or demographic compensation allow initially declining populations to persist. We measured infection dynamics of the fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans that causes white-nose syndrome in bats by estimating pathogen prevalence and load in seven bat species at 167 hibernacula over a decade as the pathogen invaded, became established, and some host populations stabilized. Fungal loads increased rapidly and prevalence rose to nearly 100% at most sites within 2 yr of invasion in six of seven species. Prevalence and loads did not decline over time despite huge reductions in colony sizes, likely due to an extensive environmental reservoir. However, there was substantial variation in fungal load among sites with persisting colonies, suggesting that both tolerance and resistance developed at different sites in the same species. In contrast, one species disappeared from hibernacula within 3 yr of pathogen invasion. Variable host responses to pathogen invasion require different management strategies to prevent disease-induced extinction and to facilitate evolution of tolerance or resistance in persisting populations. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Population structure and dynamics of northern pike and smallmouth bass in Coeur d’Alene Lake, Idaho.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walrath, John D.; Quist, Michael C.; Firehammer, Jon A.

2015-01-01

Numerous species have been introduced to Coeur d'Alene Lake, Idaho over the last century, but minimal research has been completed to understand their population dynamics. The objective of this study was to describe the population demographics and dynamics of northern pike (Esox lucius) and smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu), two important nonnative sport fishes in the system to provide information that will assist with guiding management decisions. The oldest northern pike was age 7 and the oldest smallmouth bass was age 11. Populations of both species exhibited very stable recruitment with a recruitment coefficient of determination of 0.99 for northern pike and 0.98 for smallmouth bass. Total annual mortality was estimated as 66% for northern pike and 42% for smallmouth bass. Growth of northern pike in Coeur d'Alene Lake was comparable to the 50–75th percentiles of growth exhibited by lentic northern pike populations across North America. Northern pike in Coeur d'Alene Lake were most similar to populations in the north-central and northeast United States with fast growth rates and short life spans. In contrast, smallmouth bass grew slowly and generally fell within the 5th percentile of lentic smallmouth bass populations in North America. Smallmouth bass in Coeur d'Alene Lake were similar to other populations in northern regions of the United States displaying slow growth rates with high longevity. Results of this study provide important insight on nonnative northern pike and smallmouth bass population dynamics.

A probabilistic cellular automata model for the dynamics of a population driven by logistic growth and weak Allee effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendonça, J. R. G.

2018-04-01

We propose and investigate a one-parameter probabilistic mixture of one-dimensional elementary cellular automata under the guise of a model for the dynamics of a single-species unstructured population with nonoverlapping generations in which individuals have smaller probability of reproducing and surviving in a crowded neighbourhood but also suffer from isolation and dispersal. Remarkably, the first-order mean field approximation to the dynamics of the model yields a cubic map containing terms representing both logistic and weak Allee effects. The model has a single absorbing state devoid of individuals, but depending on the reproduction and survival probabilities can achieve a stable population. We determine the critical probability separating these two phases and find that the phase transition between them is in the directed percolation universality class of critical behaviour.

Two disjunct Pleistocene populations and anisotropic postglacial expansion shaped the current genetic structure of the relict plant Amborella trichopoda

PubMed Central

Tournebize, Rémi; Manel, Stéphanie; Vigouroux, Yves; Munoz, François; de Kochko, Alexandre

2017-01-01

Past climate fluctuations shaped the population dynamics of organisms in space and time, and have impacted their present intra-specific genetic structure. Demo-genetic modelling allows inferring the way past demographic and migration dynamics have determined this structure. Amborella trichopoda is an emblematic relict plant endemic to New Caledonia, widely distributed in the understory of non-ultramafic rainforests. We assessed the influence of the last glacial climates on the demographic history and the paleo-distribution of 12 Amborella populations covering the whole current distribution. We performed coalescent genetic modelling of these dynamics, based on both whole-genome resequencing and microsatellite genotyping data. We found that the two main genetic groups of Amborella were shaped by the divergence of two ancestral populations during the last glacial maximum. From 12,800 years BP, the South ancestral population has expanded 6.3-fold while the size of the North population has remained stable. Recent asymmetric gene flow between the groups further contributed to the phylogeographical pattern. Spatially explicit coalescent modelling allowed us to estimate the location of ancestral populations with good accuracy (< 22 km) and provided indications regarding the mid-elevation pathways that facilitated post-glacial expansion. PMID:28820899

Eco-evolutionary effects on population recovery following catastrophic disturbance

PubMed Central

Weese, Dylan J; Schwartz, Amy K; Bentzen, Paul; Hendry, Andrew P; Kinnison, Michael T

2011-01-01

Fine-scale genetic diversity and contemporary evolution can theoretically influence ecological dynamics in the wild. Such eco-evolutionary effects might be particularly relevant to the persistence of populations facing acute or chronic environmental change. However, experimental data on wild populations is currently lacking to support this notion. One way that ongoing evolution might influence the dynamics of threatened populations is through the role that selection plays in mediating the ‘rescue effect’, the ability of migrants to contribute to the recovery of populations facing local disturbance and decline. Here, we combine experiments with natural catastrophic events to show that ongoing evolution is a major determinant of migrant contributions to population recovery in Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata). These eco-evolutionary limits on migrant contributions appear to be mediated by the reinforcing effects of natural and sexual selection against migrants, despite the close geographic proximity of migrant sources. These findings show that ongoing adaptive evolution can be a double-edged sword for population persistence, maintaining local fitness at a cost to demographic risk. Our study further serves as a potent reminder that significant evolutionary and eco-evolutionary dynamics might be at play even where the phenotypic status quo is largely maintained generation to generation. PMID:25567978

Addressing population heterogeneity and distribution in epidemics models using a cellular automata approach

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The spread of an infectious disease is determined by biological and social factors. Models based on cellular automata are adequate to describe such natural systems consisting of a massive collection of simple interacting objects. They characterize the time evolution of the global system as the emergent behaviour resulting from the interaction of the objects, whose behaviour is defined through a set of simple rules that encode the individual behaviour and the transmission dynamic. Methods An epidemic is characterized trough an individual–based–model built upon cellular automata. In the proposed model, each individual of the population is represented by a cell of the automata. This way of modeling an epidemic situation allows to individually define the characteristic of each individual, establish different scenarios and implement control strategies. Results A cellular automata model to study the time evolution of a heterogeneous populations through the various stages of disease was proposed, allowing the inclusion of individual heterogeneity, geographical characteristics and social factors that determine the dynamic of the desease. Different assumptions made to built the classical model were evaluated, leading to following results: i) for low contact rate (like in quarantine process or low density population areas) the number of infective individuals is lower than other areas where the contact rate is higher, and ii) for different initial spacial distributions of infected individuals different epidemic dynamics are obtained due to its influence on the transition rate and the reproductive ratio of disease. Conclusions The contact rate and spatial distributions have a central role in the spread of a disease. For low density populations the spread is very low and the number of infected individuals is lower than in highly populated areas. The spacial distribution of the population and the disease focus as well as the geographical characteristic of the area play a central role in the dynamics of the desease. PMID:24725804

Addressing population heterogeneity and distribution in epidemics models using a cellular automata approach.

PubMed

López, Leonardo; Burguerner, Germán; Giovanini, Leonardo

2014-04-12

The spread of an infectious disease is determined by biological and social factors. Models based on cellular automata are adequate to describe such natural systems consisting of a massive collection of simple interacting objects. They characterize the time evolution of the global system as the emergent behaviour resulting from the interaction of the objects, whose behaviour is defined through a set of simple rules that encode the individual behaviour and the transmission dynamic. An epidemic is characterized trough an individual-based-model built upon cellular automata. In the proposed model, each individual of the population is represented by a cell of the automata. This way of modeling an epidemic situation allows to individually define the characteristic of each individual, establish different scenarios and implement control strategies. A cellular automata model to study the time evolution of a heterogeneous populations through the various stages of disease was proposed, allowing the inclusion of individual heterogeneity, geographical characteristics and social factors that determine the dynamic of the desease. Different assumptions made to built the classical model were evaluated, leading to following results: i) for low contact rate (like in quarantine process or low density population areas) the number of infective individuals is lower than other areas where the contact rate is higher, and ii) for different initial spacial distributions of infected individuals different epidemic dynamics are obtained due to its influence on the transition rate and the reproductive ratio of disease. The contact rate and spatial distributions have a central role in the spread of a disease. For low density populations the spread is very low and the number of infected individuals is lower than in highly populated areas. The spacial distribution of the population and the disease focus as well as the geographical characteristic of the area play a central role in the dynamics of the desease.

Population dynamics of rice planthoppers, Nilaparvata lugens and Sogatella furcifera (Hemiptera, Delphacidae) in Central Vietnam and its effects on their spring migration to China.

PubMed

Hu, G; Lu, M-H; Tuan, H A; Liu, W-C; Xie, M-C; McInerney, C E; Zhai, B-P

2017-06-01

Rice planthopper (RPH) populations of Nilaparvata lugens and Sogatella furcifera periodically have erupted across Asia. Predicting RPH population dynamics and identifying their source areas are crucial for the management of these migratory pests in China, but the origins of the migrants to temperate and subtropical regions in China remains unclear. In particular, their early migration to China in March and April have not yet been explored due to a lack of research data available from potential source areas, Central Vietnam and Laos. In this study, we examined the population dynamics and migratory paths of N. lugens and S. furcifera in Vietnam and South China in 2012 and 2013. Trajectory modeling showed that in March and April in 2012 and 2013, RPH emigrated from source areas in Central Vietnam where rice was maturing to the Red River Delta and South China. Early migrants originated from Southern Central Vietnam (14-16°N), but later most were from Northern Central Vietnam (16-19°N). Analysis of meteorological and light-trap data from Hepu in April (1977-2013) using generalized linear models showed that immigration increased with precipitation in Southern Central Vietnam in January, but declined with precipitation in Northern Central Vietnam in January. These results determined that the RPH originate from overwintering areas in Central Vietnam, but not from southernmost areas of Vietnam. Winter precipitation, rather than temperature was the most important factor determining the number of RPH migrants. Based on their similar population dynamics and low population densities in Central Vietnam, we further speculated that RPH migrate to track ephemeral food resources whilst simultaneously avoiding predators. Migrations do not seem to be initiated by interspecific competition, overcrowding or host deterioration. Nevertheless, S. furcifera establishes populations earlier than N. lugens South China, perhaps to compensate for interspecific competition. We provide new information that could assist with forecasting outbreaks and implementing control measures against these migratory pests.

Mathematical modeling in biological populations through branching processes. Application to salmonid populations.

PubMed

Molina, Manuel; Mota, Manuel; Ramos, Alfonso

2015-01-01

This work deals with mathematical modeling through branching processes. We consider sexually reproducing animal populations where, in each generation, the number of progenitor couples is determined in a non-predictable environment. By using a class of two-sex branching processes, we describe their demographic dynamics and provide several probabilistic and inferential contributions. They include results about the extinction of the population and the estimation of the offspring distribution and its main moments. We also present an application to salmonid populations.

Development of working hypotheses linking management of the Missouri River to population dynamics of Scaphirhynchus albus (pallid sturgeon)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, Robert B.; Parsley, Michael J.; Annis, Mandy L.; Colvin, Michael E.; Welker, Timothy L.; James, Daniel A.

2016-01-20

The initial set of candidate hypotheses provides a useful starting point for quantitative modeling and adaptive management of the river and species. We anticipate that hypotheses will change from the set of working management hypotheses as adaptive management progresses. More importantly, hypotheses that have been filtered out of our multistep process are still being considered. These filtered hypotheses are archived and if existing hypotheses are determined to be inadequate to explain observed population dynamics, new hypotheses can be created or filtered hypotheses can be reinstated.

Pumas affect elk dynamics in absence of other large carnivores

Treesearch

Chadwick P. Lehman; Christopher T. Rota; Jarod D. Raithel; Joshua J. Millspaugh

2017-01-01

We investigated survival, reproduction, and population growth (λ) for a declining elk (Cervus canadensis nelsoni) population in South Dakota, USA, 2011-2015. We obtained survival data from 125 calves and 34 yearlings. We determined survival and pregnancy rates for 42 adults (2-8 years old) and 39 old adults (≥8 years old). We combined population vital rates into a...

Users Manual for the Dynamic Student Flow Model.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-07-31

populations within each pipeline are reasonably homogeneous and the pipeline curriculum provides a structured path along which the student must progress...curriculum is structured, student populations are non-homogeneous. They are drawn from diverse sources such as the Naval Aca- demy, NROTC and the Aviation...Officer Candidate program in numbers subjectively determined to provide the best population for subsequent flight training. His- torically, different

The big chill: quantifying the effect of the 2014 North American cold wave on hemlock woolly adelgid populations in the central Appalachian Mountains

Treesearch

Patrick C. Tobin; Richard M. Turcotte; Laura M. Blackburn; John A. Juracko; Brian T. Simpson

2017-01-01

The ability to survive winter temperatures is a key determinant of insect distributional ranges and population dynamics in temperate ecosystems. Although many insects overwinter in a state of diapause, the hemlock woolly adelgid [Adelges tsugae (Annand)] is an exception and instead develops during winter. We studied a low density population of

Population Dynamics of Early Human Migration in Britain

PubMed Central

Vahia, Mayank N.; Ladiwala, Uma; Mahathe, Pavan; Mathur, Deepak

2016-01-01

Background Early human migration is largely determined by geography and human needs. These are both deterministic parameters when small populations move into unoccupied areas where conflicts and large group dynamics are not important. The early period of human migration into the British Isles provides such a laboratory which, because of its relative geographical isolation, may allow some insights into the complex dynamics of early human migration and interaction. Method and Results We developed a simulation code based on human affinity to habitable land, as defined by availability of water sources, altitude, and flatness of land, in choosing the path of migration. Movement of people on the British island over the prehistoric period from their initial entry points was simulated on the basis of data from the megalithic period. Topographical and hydro-shed data from satellite databases was used to define habitability, based on distance from water bodies, flatness of the terrain, and altitude above sea level. We simulated population movement based on assumptions of affinity for more habitable places, with the rate of movement tempered by existing populations. We compared results of our computer simulations with genetic data and show that our simulation can predict fairly accurately the points of contacts between different migratory paths. Such comparison also provides more detailed information about the path of peoples’ movement over ~2000 years before the present era. Conclusions We demonstrate an accurate method to simulate prehistoric movements of people based upon current topographical satellite data. Our findings are validated by recently-available genetic data. Our method may prove useful in determining early human population dynamics even when no genetic information is available. PMID:27148959

Spatial variation in population growth rate and community structure affects local and regional dynamics.

PubMed

Trzcinski, M Kurtis; Walde, Sandra J; Taylor, Philip D

2008-11-01

1. Theory predicting that populations with high maximum rates of increase (r(max)) will be less stable, and that metapopulations with high average r(max) will be less synchronous, was tested using a small protist, Bodo, that inhabits pitcher plant leaves (Sarracenia purpurea L.). The effects of predators and resources on these relationships were also determined. 2. Abundance data collected for a total of 60 populations of Bodo, over a period of 3 months, at six sites in three bogs in eastern Canada, were used to test these predictions. Mosquitoes were manipulated in half the leaves partway through the season to increase the range of predation rates. 3. Dynamics differed greatly among leaves and sites, but most populations exhibited one or more episodes of rapid increase followed by a population crash. Estimates of r(max) obtained using a linear mixed-effects model, ranged from 1 x 5 to 2 x 7 per day. Resource levels (captured insect) and midge abundances affected r(max). 4. Higher r(max) was associated with greater temporal variability and lower synchrony as predicted. However, in contrast to expectations, populations with higher r(max) also had lower mean abundance and were more suppressed by predators. 5. This study demonstrates that the link between r(max) and temporal variability is key to understanding the dynamics of populations that spend little time near equilibrium, and to predicting and interpreting the effects of community structure on the dynamics of such populations.

Outbreak and Extinction Dynamics in a Stochastic Ebola Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nieddu, Garrett; Bianco, Simone; Billings, Lora; Forgoston, Eric; Kaufman, James

A zoonotic disease is a disease that can be passed between animals and humans. In many cases zoonotic diseases can persist in the animal population even if there are no infections in the human population. In this case we call the infected animal population the reservoir for the disease. Ebola virus disease (EVD) and SARS are both notable examples of such diseases. There is little work devoted to understanding stochastic disease extinction and reintroduction in the presence of a reservoir. Here we build a stochastic model for EVD and explicitly consider the presence of an animal reservoir. Using a master equation approach and a WKB ansatz, we determine the associated Hamiltonian of the system. Hamilton's equations are then used to numerically compute the 12-dimensional optimal path to extinction, which is then used to estimate mean extinction times. We also numerically investigate the behavior of the model for dynamic population size. Our results provide an improved understanding of outbreak and extinction dynamics in diseases like EVD.

Experts' Perspectives Toward a Population Health Approach for Children With Medical Complexity.

PubMed

Barnert, Elizabeth S; Coller, Ryan J; Nelson, Bergen B; Thompson, Lindsey R; Chan, Vincent; Padilla, Cesar; Klitzner, Thomas S; Szilagyi, Moira; Chung, Paul J

2017-08-01

Because children with medical complexity (CMC) display very different health trajectories, needs, and resource utilization than other children, it is unclear how well traditional conceptions of population health apply to CMC. We sought to identify key health outcome domains for CMC as a step toward determining core health metrics for this distinct population of children. We conducted and analyzed interviews with 23 diverse national experts on CMC to better understand population health for CMC. Interviewees included child and family advocates, health and social service providers, and research, health systems, and policy leaders. We performed thematic content analyses to identify emergent themes regarding population health for CMC. Overall, interviewees conveyed that defining and measuring population health for CMC is an achievable, worthwhile goal. Qualitative themes from interviews included: 1) CMC share unifying characteristics that could serve as the basis for population health outcomes; 2) optimal health for CMC is child specific and dynamic; 3) health of CMC is intertwined with health of families; 4) social determinants of health are especially important for CMC; and 5) measuring population health for CMC faces serious conceptual and logistical challenges. Experts have taken initial steps in defining the population health of CMC. Population health for CMC involves a dynamic concept of health that is attuned to individual, health-related goals for each child. We propose a framework that can guide the identification and development of population health metrics for CMC. Copyright © 2017 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Statistical Physics of Population Genetics in the Low Population Size Limit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atwal, Gurinder

The understanding of evolutionary processes lends itself naturally to theory and computation, and the entire field of population genetics has benefited greatly from the influx of methods from applied mathematics for decades. However, in spite of all this effort, there are a number of key dynamical models of evolution that have resisted analytical treatment. In addition, modern DNA sequencing technologies have magnified the amount of genetic data available, revealing an excess of rare genetic variants in human genomes, challenging the predictions of conventional theory. Here I will show that methods from statistical physics can be used to model the distribution of genetic variants, incorporating selection and spatial degrees of freedom. In particular, a functional path-integral formulation of the Wright-Fisher process maps exactly to the dynamics of a particle in an effective potential, beyond the mean field approximation. In the small population size limit, the dynamics are dominated by instanton-like solutions which determine the probability of fixation in short timescales. These results are directly relevant for understanding the unusual genetic variant distribution at moving frontiers of populations.

Connection between Dynamically Derived Initial Mass Function Normalization and Stellar Population Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDermid, Richard M.; Cappellari, Michele; Alatalo, Katherine; Bayet, Estelle; Blitz, Leo; Bois, Maxime; Bournaud, Frédéric; Bureau, Martin; Crocker, Alison F.; Davies, Roger L.; Davis, Timothy A.; de Zeeuw, P. T.; Duc, Pierre-Alain; Emsellem, Eric; Khochfar, Sadegh; Krajnović, Davor; Kuntschner, Harald; Morganti, Raffaella; Naab, Thorsten; Oosterloo, Tom; Sarzi, Marc; Scott, Nicholas; Serra, Paolo; Weijmans, Anne-Marie; Young, Lisa M.

2014-09-01

We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the ATLAS3D project. We study trends between our dynamically derived IMF normalization αdyn ≡ (M/L)stars/(M/L)Salp and absorption line strengths, and interpret these via single stellar population-equivalent ages, abundance ratios (measured as [α/Fe]), and total metallicity, [Z/H]. We find that old and alpha-enhanced galaxies tend to have on average heavier (Salpeter-like) mass normalization of the IMF, but stellar population does not appear to be a good predictor of the IMF, with a large range of αdyn at a given population parameter. As a result, we find weak αdyn-[α/Fe] and αdyn -Age correlations and no significant αdyn -[Z/H] correlation. The observed trends appear significantly weaker than those reported in studies that measure the IMF normalization via the low-mass star demographics inferred through stellar spectral analysis.

An age-structured model for the coupled dynamics of HIV and HSV-2.

PubMed

Kapitanov, Georgi; Alvey, Christina; Vogt-Geisse, Katia; Feng, Zhilan

2015-08-01

Evidence suggests a strong correlation between the prevalence of HSV-2 (genital herpes) and the perseverance of the HIV epidemic. HSV-2 is an incurable viral infection, characterized by periodic reactivation. We construct a model of the co-infection dynamics between the two diseases by incorporating a time-since-infection variable to track the alternating periods of infectiousness of HSV-2. The model considers only heterosexual relationships and distinguishes three population groups: males, general population females, and female sex workers. We calculate the basic reproduction numbers for each disease that provide threshold conditions, which determine whether a disease dies out or becomes endemic in the absence of the other disease. We also derive the invasion reproduction numbers that determine whether or not a disease can invade into a population in which the other disease is endemic. The calculations of the invasion reproduction numbers suggest a new aspect in their interpretation - the class from which the initial disease carrier arises is important for understanding the invasion dynamics and biological interpretation of the expressions of the reproduction numbers. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to examine the role of model parameters in influencing the model outcomes. The results are discussed in the last section.

Host-plant relationships and comparative ecology of conifer - feeding budworms (Choristoneura spp.)

Treesearch

V. G. Nealis

2003-01-01

North American budworms are eruptive insect species that form intimate ecological relationships with their host trees. Population data for the eastern spruce budworm and jack pine budworm implicate natural enemies as primary determinants of population collapses. Yet the dynamics of these two species display markedly different temporal and spatial characteristics. One...

Is brood parasitism related to host nestling diet and nutrition?

Treesearch

Zachary S. Ladin; Vincent D' Amico; Deb P. Jaisi; W. Gregory Shriver

2015-01-01

Food and nutrient limitation can have negative effects on survival, fecundity, and lifetime fitness of individuals, which can ultimately limit populations. Changes in trophic dynamics and diet patterns, affected by anthropogenic environmental and landscape change, are poorly understood yet may play an important role in population regulation. We determined diets of Wood...

Irrigation differentially impacts populations of indigenous antibiotic-producing Pseudomonas spp. in the rhizosphere of wheat

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This work determined the impact of irrigation on the seasonal dynamics of populations of Pseudomonas spp. producing the antibiotics phenazine-1-carboxylic acid (Phz+) and 2,4-diacetylphloroglucinol (Phl+) in the rhizosphere of wheat grown in the low precipitation zone (150 to 300 mm annually) of the...

Interpreting Recruitment Limitation in Forests

Treesearch

J.S. Clark; B. Beckage; P. Camill; B. Cleveland; J. HilleRisLambers; J. Lichter; J. McLachlan; J. Mohan; P. Wyckoff

1999-01-01

Studies of tree recruitment are many, but they provide few general insights into the role of recruitment limitation for population dynamics. That role depends on the vital rates (transitions) from seed production to sapling stages and on overall population growth. To determine the state of our understanding of recruitment limitation we examined how well we can estimate...

Concepts and tools for predictive modeling of microbial dynamics.

PubMed

Bernaerts, Kristel; Dens, Els; Vereecken, Karen; Geeraerd, Annemie H; Standaert, Arnout R; Devlieghere, Frank; Debevere, Johan; Van Impe, Jan F

2004-09-01

Description of microbial cell (population) behavior as influenced by dynamically changing environmental conditions intrinsically needs dynamic mathematical models. In the past, major effort has been put into the modeling of microbial growth and inactivation within a constant environment (static models). In the early 1990s, differential equation models (dynamic models) were introduced in the field of predictive microbiology. Here, we present a general dynamic model-building concept describing microbial evolution under dynamic conditions. Starting from an elementary model building block, the model structure can be gradually complexified to incorporate increasing numbers of influencing factors. Based on two case studies, the fundamentals of both macroscopic (population) and microscopic (individual) modeling approaches are revisited. These illustrations deal with the modeling of (i) microbial lag under variable temperature conditions and (ii) interspecies microbial interactions mediated by lactic acid production (product inhibition). Current and future research trends should address the need for (i) more specific measurements at the cell and/or population level, (ii) measurements under dynamic conditions, and (iii) more comprehensive (mechanistically inspired) model structures. In the context of quantitative microbial risk assessment, complexity of the mathematical model must be kept under control. An important challenge for the future is determination of a satisfactory trade-off between predictive power and manageability of predictive microbiology models.

Rapid contemporary evolution and clonal food web dynamics

PubMed Central

Jones, Laura E.; Becks, Lutz; Ellner, Stephen P.; Hairston, Nelson G.; Yoshida, Takehito; Fussmann, Gregor F.

2009-01-01

Character evolution that affects ecological community interactions often occurs contemporaneously with temporal changes in population size, potentially altering the very nature of those dynamics. Such eco-evolutionary processes may be most readily explored in systems with short generations and simple genetics. Asexual and cyclically parthenogenetic organisms such as microalgae, cladocerans and rotifers, which frequently dominate freshwater plankton communities, meet these requirements. Multiple clonal lines can coexist within each species over extended periods, until either fixation occurs or a sexual phase reshuffles the genetic material. When clones differ in traits affecting interspecific interactions, within-species clonal dynamics can have major effects on the population dynamics. We first consider a simple predator–prey system with two prey genotypes, parametrized with data from a well-studied experimental system, and explore how the extent of differences in defence against predation within the prey population determine dynamic stability versus instability of the system. We then explore how increased potential for evolution affects the community dynamics in a more general community model with multiple predator and multiple prey genotypes. These examples illustrate how microevolutionary ‘details’ that enhance or limit the potential for heritable phenotypic change can have significant effects on contemporaneous community-level dynamics and the persistence and coexistence of species. PMID:19414472

Application of a dynamic population-based model for evaluation of exposure reduction strategies in the baking industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meijster, Tim; Warren, Nick; Heederik, Dick; Tielemans, Erik

2009-02-01

Recently a dynamic population model was developed that simulates a population of bakery workers longitudinally through time and tracks the development of work-related sensitisation and respiratory symptoms in each worker. Input for this model comes from cross-sectional and longitudinal epidemiological studies which allowed estimation of exposure response relationships and disease transition probabilities This model allows us to study the development of diseases and transitions between disease states over time in relation to determinants of disease including flour dust and/or allergen exposure. Furthermore it enables more realistic modelling of the health impact of different intervention strategies at the workplace (e.g. changes in exposure may take several years to impact on ill-health and often occur as a gradual trend). A large dataset of individual full-shift exposure measurements and real-time exposure measurements were used to obtain detailed insight into the effectiveness of control measures and other determinants of exposure. Given this information a population wide reduction of the median exposure with 50% was evaluated in this paper.

The evolution of wealth transmission in human populations: a stochastic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Augustins, G.; Etienne, L.; Ferdy, J.-B.; Ferrer, R.; Godelle, B.; Pitard, E.; Rousset, F.

2014-03-01

Reproductive success and survival are influenced by wealth in human populations. Wealth is transmitted to offsprings and strategies of transmission vary over time and among populations, the main variation being how equally wealth is transmitted to children. Here we propose a model where we simulate both the dynamics of wealth in a population and the evolution of a trait that determines how wealth is transmitted from parents to offspring, in a darwinian context.

A Rainfall- and Temperature-Driven Abundance Model for Aedes albopictus Populations

PubMed Central

Tran, Annelise; L’Ambert, Grégory; Lacour, Guillaume; Benoît, Romain; Demarchi, Marie; Cros, Myriam; Cailly, Priscilla; Aubry-Kientz, Mélaine; Balenghien, Thomas; Ezanno, Pauline

2013-01-01

The mosquito Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) is an invasive species which has colonized Southern Europe in the last two decades. As it is a competent vector for several arboviruses, its spread is of increasing public health concern, and there is a need for appropriate monitoring tools. In this paper, we have developed a modelling approach to predict mosquito abundance over time, and identify the main determinants of mosquito population dynamics. The model is temperature- and rainfall-driven, takes into account egg diapause during unfavourable periods, and was used to model the population dynamics of Ae. albopictus in the French Riviera since 2008. Entomological collections of egg stage from six locations in Nice conurbation were used for model validation. We performed a sensitivity analysis to identify the key parameters of the mosquito population dynamics. Results showed that the model correctly predicted entomological field data (Pearson r correlation coefficient values range from 0.73 to 0.93). The model’s main control points were related to adult’s mortality rates, the carrying capacity in pupae of the environment, and the beginning of the unfavourable period. The proposed model can be efficiently used as a tool to predict Ae. albopictus population dynamics, and to assess the efficiency of different control strategies. PMID:23624579

Timing and severity of immunizing diseases in rabbits is controlled by seasonal matching of host and pathogen dynamics

PubMed Central

Wells, Konstans; Brook, Barry W.; Lacy, Robert C.; Mutze, Greg J.; Peacock, David E.; Sinclair, Ron G.; Schwensow, Nina; Cassey, Phillip; O'Hara, Robert B.; Fordham, Damien A.

2015-01-01

Infectious diseases can exert a strong influence on the dynamics of host populations, but it remains unclear why such disease-mediated control only occurs under particular environmental conditions. We used 16 years of detailed field data on invasive European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in Australia, linked to individual-based stochastic models and Bayesian approximations, to test whether (i) mortality associated with rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) is driven primarily by seasonal matches/mismatches between demographic rates and epidemiological dynamics and (ii) delayed infection (arising from insusceptibility and maternal antibodies in juveniles) are important factors in determining disease severity and local population persistence of rabbits. We found that both the timing of reproduction and exposure to viruses drove recurrent seasonal epidemics of RHD. Protection conferred by insusceptibility and maternal antibodies controlled seasonal disease outbreaks by delaying infection; this could have also allowed escape from disease. The persistence of local populations was a stochastic outcome of recovery rates from both RHD and myxomatosis. If susceptibility to RHD is delayed, myxomatosis will have a pronounced effect on population extirpation when the two viruses coexist. This has important implications for wildlife management, because it is likely that such seasonal interplay and disease dynamics has a strong effect on long-term population viability for many species. PMID:25566883

Development of conceptual ecological models linking management of the Missouri River to pallid sturgeon population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, Robert B.; Parsley, Michael J.; Annis, Mandy L.; Colvin, Michael E.; Welker, Timothy L.; James, Daniel A.

2015-01-01

This report documents the process of developing and refining conceptual ecological models (CEMs) for linking river management to pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) population dynamics in the Missouri River. The refined CEMs are being used in the Missouri River Pallid Sturgeon Effects Analysis to organize, document, and formalize an understanding of pallid sturgeon population responses to past and future management alternatives. The general form of the CEMs, represented by a population-level model and component life-stage models, was determined in workshops held in the summer of 2013. Subsequently, the Missouri River Pallid Sturgeon Effects Analysis team designed a general hierarchical structure for the component models, refined the graphical structure, and reconciled variation among the components and between models developed for the upper river (Upper Missouri & Yellowstone Rivers) and the lower river (Missouri River downstream from Gavins Point Dam). Importance scores attributed to the relations between primary biotic characteristics and survival were used to define a candidate set of working dominant hypotheses about pallid sturgeon population dynamics. These CEMs are intended to guide research and adaptive-management actions to benefit pallid sturgeon populations in the Missouri River.

The temporal spectrum of adult mosquito population fluctuations: conceptual and modeling implications.

PubMed

Jian, Yun; Silvestri, Sonia; Brown, Jeff; Hickman, Rick; Marani, Marco

2014-01-01

An improved understanding of mosquito population dynamics under natural environmental forcing requires adequate field observations spanning the full range of temporal scales over which mosquito abundance fluctuates in natural conditions. Here we analyze a 9-year daily time series of uninterrupted observations of adult mosquito abundance for multiple mosquito species in North Carolina to identify characteristic scales of temporal variability, the processes generating them, and the representativeness of observations at different sampling resolutions. We focus in particular on Aedes vexans and Culiseta melanura and, using a combination of spectral analysis and modeling, we find significant population fluctuations with characteristic periodicity between 2 days and several years. Population dynamical modelling suggests that the observed fast fluctuations scales (2 days-weeks) are importantly affected by a varying mosquito activity in response to rapid changes in meteorological conditions, a process neglected in most representations of mosquito population dynamics. We further suggest that the range of time scales over which adult mosquito population variability takes place can be divided into three main parts. At small time scales (indicatively 2 days-1 month) observed population fluctuations are mainly driven by behavioral responses to rapid changes in weather conditions. At intermediate scales (1 to several month) environmentally-forced fluctuations in generation times, mortality rates, and density dependence determine the population characteristic response times. At longer scales (annual to multi-annual) mosquito populations follow seasonal and inter-annual environmental changes. We conclude that observations of adult mosquito populations should be based on a sub-weekly sampling frequency and that predictive models of mosquito abundance must include behavioral dynamics to separate the effects of a varying mosquito activity from actual changes in the abundance of the underlying population.

Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

PubMed

Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H; Oli, Madan K

2012-01-01

Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λ(s) was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λ(s) included 1.0 (0.52-1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

Stochastic Population Dynamics of a Montane Ground-Dwelling Squirrel

PubMed Central

Hostetler, Jeffrey A.; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H.; Oli, Madan K.

2012-01-01

Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990–2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λs was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λs included 1.0 (0.52–1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration. PMID:22479616

Fixation Times in Deme Structured, Finite Populations with Rare Migration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauert, Christoph; Chen, Yu-Ting; Imhof, Lorens A.

2014-08-01

Population structure affects both the outcome and the speed of evolutionary dynamics. Here we consider a finite population that is divided into subpopulations called demes. The dynamics within the demes are stochastic and frequency-dependent. Individuals can adopt one of two strategic types, or . The fitness of each individual is determined by interactions with other individuals in the same deme. With small probability, proportional to fitness, individuals migrate to other demes. The outcome of these dynamics has been studied earlier by analyzing the fixation probability of a single mutant in an otherwise homogeneous population. These results give only a partial picture of the dynamics, because the time when fixation occurs can be exceedingly large. In this paper, we study the impact of deme structures on the speed of evolution. We derive analytical approximations of fixation times in the limit of rare migration and rare mutation. In this limit, the conditional fixation time of a single mutant in a population is the same as that of a single in an population. For the prisoner's dilemma game, simulation results fit very well with our analytical predictions and demonstrate that fixation takes place in a moderate amount of time as compared to the expected waiting time until a mutant successfully invades and fixates. The simulations also confirm that the conditional fixation time of a single cooperator is indeed the same as that of a single defector.

Dynamic Pedagogy for Effective Training of Youths in Cell Phone Maintenance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ogbuanya, T. C.; Jimoh, Bakare

2015-01-01

The study determined dynamic pedagogies for effective training of youths in cell phone maintenance. The study was conducted in Enugu State of Nigeria. Four research questions were developed while four null hypotheses formulated were tested at 0.05 level of significance. A survey research design was adopted for the study. The population for the…

Cooperation guided by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in structured populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Kuangyi; Li, Kun; Cong, Rui; Wang, Long

2017-02-01

In the framework of the evolutionary game theory, two fundamentally different mechanisms, the imitation process and the aspiration-driven dynamics, can be adopted by players to update their strategies. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer, while in the latter case individuals change their strategies based on a comparison of payoffs they collect in the game to their own aspiration levels. Here we explore how cooperation evolves for the coexistence of these two dynamics. Intriguingly, cooperation reaches its lowest level when a certain moderate fraction of individuals pick aspiration-level-driven rule while the others choose pairwise comparison rule. Furthermore, when individuals can adjust their update rules besides their strategies, either imitation dynamics or aspiration-driven dynamics will finally take over the entire population, and the stationary cooperation level is determined by the outcome of competition between these two dynamics. We find that appropriate synergetic effects and moderate aspiration level boost the fixation probability of aspiration-driven dynamics most effectively. Our work may be helpful in understanding the cooperative behavior induced by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in the society.

Epidemic Process over the Commute Network in a Metropolitan Area

PubMed Central

Yashima, Kenta; Sasaki, Akira

2014-01-01

An understanding of epidemiological dynamics is important for prevention and control of epidemic outbreaks. However, previous studies tend to focus only on specific areas, indicating that application to another area or intervention strategy requires a similar time-consuming simulation. Here, we study the epidemic dynamics of the disease-spread over a commute network, using the Tokyo metropolitan area as an example, in an attempt to elucidate the general properties of epidemic spread over a commute network that could be used for a prediction in any metropolitan area. The model is formulated on the basis of a metapopulation network in which local populations are interconnected by actual commuter flows in the Tokyo metropolitan area and the spread of infection is simulated by an individual-based model. We find that the probability of a global epidemic as well as the final epidemic sizes in both global and local populations, the timing of the epidemic peak, and the time at which the epidemic reaches a local population are mainly determined by the joint distribution of the local population sizes connected by the commuter flows, but are insensitive to geographical or topological structure of the network. Moreover, there is a strong relation between the population size and the time that the epidemic reaches this local population and we are able to determine the reason for this relation as well as its dependence on the commute network structure and epidemic parameters. This study shows that the model based on the connection between the population size classes is sufficient to predict both global and local epidemic dynamics in metropolitan area. Moreover, the clear relation of the time taken by the epidemic to reach each local population can be used as a novel measure for intervention; this enables efficient intervention strategies in each local population prior to the actual arrival. PMID:24905831

Remote sensing of the biological dynamics of large-scale salt evaporation ponds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, Laurie L.; Bachoon, Dave; Ingram-Willey, Vebbra; Chow, Colin C.; Weinstock, Kenneth

1992-01-01

Optical properties of salt evaporation ponds associated with Exportadora de Sal, a salt production company in Baja California Sur, Mexico, were analyzed using a combination of spectroradiometer and extracted pigment data, and Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper imagery. The optical characteristics of each pond are determined by the biota, which consists of dense populations of algae and photosynthetic bacteria containing a wide variety of photosynthetic and photoprotective pigments. Analysis has shown that spectral and image data can differentiate between taxonomic groups of the microbiota, detect changes in population distributions, and reveal large-scale seasonal dynamics.

Mathematical modelling of vector-borne diseases and insecticide resistance evolution.

PubMed

Gabriel Kuniyoshi, Maria Laura; Pio Dos Santos, Fernando Luiz

2017-01-01

Vector-borne diseases are important public health issues and, consequently, in silico models that simulate them can be useful. The susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model simulates the population dynamics of an epidemic and can be easily adapted to vector-borne diseases, whereas the Hardy-Weinberg model simulates allele frequencies and can be used to study insecticide resistance evolution. The aim of the present study is to develop a coupled system that unifies both models, therefore enabling the analysis of the effects of vector population genetics on the population dynamics of an epidemic. Our model consists of an ordinary differential equation system. We considered the populations of susceptible, infected and recovered humans, as well as susceptible and infected vectors. Concerning these vectors, we considered a pair of alleles, with complete dominance interaction that determined the rate of mortality induced by insecticides. Thus, we were able to separate the vectors according to the genotype. We performed three numerical simulations of the model. In simulation one, both alleles conferred the same mortality rate values, therefore there was no resistant strain. In simulations two and three, the recessive and dominant alleles, respectively, conferred a lower mortality. Our numerical results show that the genetic composition of the vector population affects the dynamics of human diseases. We found that the absolute number of vectors and the proportion of infected vectors are smaller when there is no resistant strain, whilst the ratio of infected people is larger in the presence of insecticide-resistant vectors. The dynamics observed for infected humans in all simulations has a very similar shape to real epidemiological data. The population genetics of vectors can affect epidemiological dynamics, and the presence of insecticide-resistant strains can increase the number of infected people. Based on the present results, the model is a basis for development of other models and for investigating population dynamics.

Transience after disturbance: Obligate species recovery dynamics depend on disturbance duration.

PubMed

Singer, Alexander; Johst, Karin

2017-06-01

After a disturbance event, population recovery becomes an important species response that drives ecosystem dynamics. Yet, it is unclear how interspecific interactions impact species recovery from a disturbance and which role the disturbance duration (pulse or press) plays. Here, we analytically derive conditions that govern the transient recovery dynamics from disturbance of a host and its obligately dependent partner in a two-species metapopulation model. We find that, after disturbance, species recovery dynamics depend on the species' role (i.e. host or obligately dependent species) as well as the duration of disturbance. Host recovery starts immediately after the disturbance. In contrast, for obligate species, recovery depends on disturbance duration. After press disturbance, which allows dynamics to equilibrate during disturbance, obligate species immediately start to recover. Yet, after pulse disturbance, obligate species continue declining although their hosts have already begun to increase. Effectively, obligate species recovery is delayed until a necessary host threshold occupancy is reached. Obligates' delayed recovery arises solely from interspecific interactions independent of dispersal limitations, which contests previous explanations. Delayed recovery exerts a two-fold negative effect, because populations continue declining to even smaller population sizes and the phase of increased risk from demographic stochastic extinction in small populations is prolonged. We argue that delayed recovery and its determinants -species interactions and disturbance duration - have to be considered in biodiversity management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Biophysical model for assessment of risk of acute exposures in combination with low level chronic irradiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smirnova, O. A.

A biophysical model is developed which describes the mortality dynamics in mammalian populations unexposed and exposed to radiation The model relates statistical biometric functions mortality rate life span probability density and life span probability with statistical characteristics and dynamics of a critical body system in individuals composing the population The model describing the dynamics of thrombocytopoiesis in nonirradiated and irradiated mammals is also developed this hematopoietic line being considered as the critical body system under exposures in question The mortality model constructed in the framework of the proposed approach was identified to reproduce the irradiation effects on populations of mice The most parameters of the thrombocytopoiesis model were determined from the data available in the literature on hematology and radiobiology the rest parameters were evaluated by fitting some experimental data on the dynamics of this system in acutely irradiated mice The successful verification of the thrombocytopoiesis model was fulfilled by the quantitative juxtaposition of the modeling predictions and experimental data on the dynamics of this system in mice exposed to either acute or chronic irradiation at wide ranges of doses and dose rates It is important that only experimental data on the mortality rate in nonirradiated population and the relevant statistical characteristics of the thrombocytopoiesis system in mice which are also available in the literature on radiobiology are needed for the final identification of

Concise Review: Stem Cell Population Biology: Insights from Hematopoiesis.

PubMed

MacLean, Adam L; Lo Celso, Cristina; Stumpf, Michael P H

2017-01-01

Stem cells are fundamental to human life and offer great therapeutic potential, yet their biology remains incompletely-or in cases even poorly-understood. The field of stem cell biology has grown substantially in recent years due to a combination of experimental and theoretical contributions: the experimental branch of this work provides data in an ever-increasing number of dimensions, while the theoretical branch seeks to determine suitable models of the fundamental stem cell processes that these data describe. The application of population dynamics to biology is amongst the oldest applications of mathematics to biology, and the population dynamics perspective continues to offer much today. Here we describe the impact that such a perspective has made in the field of stem cell biology. Using hematopoietic stem cells as our model system, we discuss the approaches that have been used to study their key properties, such as capacity for self-renewal, differentiation, and cell fate lineage choice. We will also discuss the relevance of population dynamics in models of stem cells and cancer, where competition naturally emerges as an influential factor on the temporal evolution of cell populations. Stem Cells 2017;35:80-88. © 2016 AlphaMed Press.

Linking movement and oviposition behaviour to spatial population distribution in the tree hole mosquito Ochlerotatus triseriatus.

PubMed

Ellis, Alicia M

2008-01-01

1. Researchers often use the spatial distribution of insect offspring as a measure of adult oviposition preferences, and then make conclusions about the consequences of these preferences for population growth and the relationship between life-history traits (e.g. oviposition preference and offspring performance). However, several processes other than oviposition preference can generate spatial patterns of offspring density (e.g. dispersal limitations, spatially heterogeneous mortality rates). Incorrectly assuming that offspring distributions reflect oviposition preferences may therefore compromise our ability to understand the mechanisms determining population distributions and the relationship between life-history traits. 2. The purpose of this study was to perform an empirical study at the whole-system scale to examine the movement and oviposition behaviours of the eastern tree hole mosquito Ochlerotatus triseriatus (Say) and test the importance of these behaviours in determining population distribution relative to other mechanisms. 3. A mark-release-recapture experiment was performed to distinguish among the following alternative hypotheses that may explain a previously observed aggregated distribution of tree hole mosquito offspring: (H(1)) mosquitoes prefer habitats with particular vegetation characteristics and these preferences determine the distribution of their offspring; (H(2)) mosquitoes distribute their eggs randomly or evenly throughout their environment, but spatial differences in developmental success generate an aggregated pattern of larval density; (H(3)) mosquitoes randomly colonize habitats, but have limited dispersal capability causing them to distribute offspring where founder populations were established; (H(4)) wind or other environmental factors may lead to passive aggregation, or spatial heterogeneity in adult mortality (H(5)), rather than dispersal, generates clumped offspring distributions. 4. Results indicate that the distribution of tree hole mosquito larvae is determined in part by adult habitat selection (H(1)), but do not exclude additional effects from passive aggregation (H(4)), or spatial patterns in adult mortality (H(5)). 5. This research illustrates the importance of studying oviposition behaviour at the population scale to better evaluate its relative importance in determining population distribution and dynamics. Moreover, this study demonstrates the importance of linking behavioural and population dynamics for understanding evolutionary relationships among life-history traits (e.g. preference and offspring performance) and predicting when behaviour will be important in determining population phenomena.

Heterogeneous network promotes species coexistence: metapopulation model for rock-paper-scissors game.

PubMed

Nagatani, Takashi; Ichinose, Genki; Tainaka, Kei-Ichi

2018-05-04

Understanding mechanisms of biodiversity has been a central question in ecology. The coexistence of three species in rock-paper-scissors (RPS) systems are discussed by many authors; however, the relation between coexistence and network structure is rarely discussed. Here we present a metapopulation model for RPS game. The total population is assumed to consist of three subpopulations (nodes). Each individual migrates by random walk; the destination of migration is randomly determined. From reaction-migration equations, we obtain the population dynamics. It is found that the dynamic highly depends on network structures. When a network is homogeneous, the dynamics are neutrally stable: each node has a periodic solution, and the oscillations synchronize in all nodes. However, when a network is heterogeneous, the dynamics approach stable focus and all nodes reach equilibriums with different densities. Hence, the heterogeneity of the network promotes biodiversity.

Relation between the electromagnetic processes in the near-Earth space and dynamics of the biological resources in Russian Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makarova, L. N.; Shirochkov, A. V.; Tumanov, I. L.

The start of the satellite era in the Space explorations led to new and more profound knowledge of the solar physics and the sources of its activity. From these points of view, it is worthy to examine again the relations between biological processes and the solar activity. We explore the relation between dynamics of the solar activity (including the solar wind) and changes in population of some species of Arctic fauna (lemmings, polar foxes, caribous, wolves, elks, etc.). The data include statistical rows of various lengths (30 80 years). The best correlation between two data sets is found when the solar wind dynamic pressure as well as variations of the total solar irradiance (i.e., level of the solar UV radiation) is taken as the space parameters. Probably the electromagnetic fields of space origin are an important factor determining dynamics of population of the Arctic fauna species.

Spatiotemporal variation in survival rates: implications for population dynamics of yellow-bellied marmots.

PubMed

Ozgul, Arpat; Armitage, Kenneth B; Blumstein, Daniel T; Oli, Madan K

2006-04-01

Spatiotemporal variation in age-specific survival rates can profoundly influence population dynamics, but few studies of vertebrates have thoroughly investigated both spatial and temporal variability in age-specific survival rates. We used 28 years (1976-2003) of capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data from 17 locations to parameterize an age-structured Cormack-Jolly-Seber model, and investigated spatial and temporal variation in age-specific annual survival rates of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris). Survival rates varied both spatially and temporally, with survival of younger animals exhibiting the highest degree of variation. Juvenile survival rates varied from 0.52 +/- 0.05 to 0.78 +/- 0.10 among sites and from 0.15 +/- 0.14 to 0.89 +/- 0.06 over time. Adult survival rates varied from 0.62 +/- 0.09 to 0.80 +/- 0.03 among sites, but did not vary significantly over time. We used reverse-time CMR models to estimate the realized population growth rate (lamda), and to investigate the influence of the observed variation in age-specific survival rates on lamda. The realized growth rate of the population closely covaried with, and was significantly influenced by, spatiotemporal variation in juvenile survival rate. High variability in juvenile survival rates over space and time clearly influenced the dynamics of our study population and is also likely to be an important determinant of the spatiotemporal variation in the population dynamics of other mammals with similar life history characteristics.

Timing and severity of immunizing diseases in rabbits is controlled by seasonal matching of host and pathogen dynamics.

PubMed

Wells, Konstans; Brook, Barry W; Lacy, Robert C; Mutze, Greg J; Peacock, David E; Sinclair, Ron G; Schwensow, Nina; Cassey, Phillip; O'Hara, Robert B; Fordham, Damien A

2015-02-06

Infectious diseases can exert a strong influence on the dynamics of host populations, but it remains unclear why such disease-mediated control only occurs under particular environmental conditions. We used 16 years of detailed field data on invasive European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in Australia, linked to individual-based stochastic models and Bayesian approximations, to test whether (i) mortality associated with rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) is driven primarily by seasonal matches/mismatches between demographic rates and epidemiological dynamics and (ii) delayed infection (arising from insusceptibility and maternal antibodies in juveniles) are important factors in determining disease severity and local population persistence of rabbits. We found that both the timing of reproduction and exposure to viruses drove recurrent seasonal epidemics of RHD. Protection conferred by insusceptibility and maternal antibodies controlled seasonal disease outbreaks by delaying infection; this could have also allowed escape from disease. The persistence of local populations was a stochastic outcome of recovery rates from both RHD and myxomatosis. If susceptibility to RHD is delayed, myxomatosis will have a pronounced effect on population extirpation when the two viruses coexist. This has important implications for wildlife management, because it is likely that such seasonal interplay and disease dynamics has a strong effect on long-term population viability for many species. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Political dynamics determined by interactions between political leaders and voters.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bernard, Michael Lewis; Bier, Asmeret; Backus, George A.

2010-03-01

The political dynamics associated with an election are typically a function of the interplay between political leaders and voters, as well as endogenous and exogenous factors that impact the perceptions and goals of the electorate. This paper describes an effort by Sandia National Laboratories to model the attitudes and behaviors of various political groups along with that population's primary influencers, such as government leaders. To accomplish this, Sandia National Laboratories is creating a hybrid system dynamics-cognitive model to simulate systems- and individual-level political dynamics in a hypothetical society. The model is based on well-established psychological theory, applied to both individualsmore » and groups within the modeled society. Confidence management processes are being incorporated into the model design process to increase the utility of the tool and assess its performance. This project will enhance understanding of how political dynamics are determined in democratic society.« less

Demographic variation across successional stages and their effects on the population dynamics of the neotropical palm Euterpe precatoria.

PubMed

Otárola, Mauricio Fernández; Avalos, Gerardo

2014-06-01

• Premise of the study: Environmental heterogeneity is a strong selective force shaping adaptation and population dynamics across temporal and spatial scales. Natural and anthropogenic gradients influence the variation of environmental and biotic factors, which determine population demography and dynamics. Successional gradients are expected to influence demographic parameters, but the relationship between these gradients and the species life history, habitat requirements, and degree of variation in demographic traits remains elusive.• Methods: We used the palm Euterpe precatoria to test the effect of successional stage on plant demography within a continuous population. We calculated demographic parameters for size stages and performed matrix analyses to investigate the demographic variation within primary and secondary forests of La Selva, Costa Rica.• Key results: We observed differences in mortality and recruitment of small juveniles between primary and secondary forests. Matrix models described satisfactorily the chronosequence of population changes, which were characterized by high population growth rate in disturbed areas, and decreased growth rate in old successional forests until reaching stability.• Conclusions: Different demographic parameters can be expressed in contiguous subpopulations along a gradient of successional stages with important consequences for population dynamics. Demographic variation superimposed on these gradients contributes to generate subpopulations with different demographic composition, density, and ecological properties. Therefore, the effects of spatial variation must be reconsidered in the design of demographic analyses of tropical palms, which are prime examples of subtle local adaptation. These considerations are crucial in the implementation of management plans for palm species within spatially complex and heterogeneous tropical landscapes. © 2014 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

Effects of plant tannins supplementation on animal response and in vivo ruminal bacterial populations associated with bloat in heifers grazing wheat forage

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Research was conducted to determine the effects of sources of tannins on in vitro ruminal gas and foam production, in vivo ruminal bacterial populations, bloat dynamics and ADG of heifers grazing wheat forage. Two experiments were conducted to 1) enumerate the effect of tannins supplementation on bi...

Prediction of population with Alzheimer's disease in the European Union using a system dynamics model.

PubMed

Tomaskova, Hana; Kuhnova, Jitka; Cimler, Richard; Dolezal, Ondrej; Kuca, Kamil

2016-01-01

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a slowly progressing neurodegenerative brain disease with irreversible brain effects; it is the most common cause of dementia. With increasing age, the probability of suffering from AD increases. In this research, population growth of the European Union (EU) until the year 2080 and the number of patients with AD are modeled. The aim of this research is to predict the spread of AD in the EU population until year 2080 using a computer simulation. For the simulation of the EU population and the occurrence of AD in this population, a system dynamics modeling approach has been used. System dynamics is a useful and effective method for the investigation of complex social systems. Over the past decades, its applicability has been demonstrated in a wide variety of applications. In this research, this method has been used to investigate the growth of the EU population and predict the number of patients with AD. The model has been calibrated on the population prediction data created by Eurostat. Based on data from Eurostat, the EU population until year 2080 has been modeled. In 2013, the population of the EU was 508 million and the number of patients with AD was 7.5 million. Based on the prediction, in 2040, the population of the EU will be 524 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.1 million. By the year 2080, the EU population will be 520 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.7 million. System dynamics modeling approach has been used for the prediction of the number of patients with AD in the EU population till the year 2080. These results can be used to determine the economic burden of the treatment of these patients. With different input data, the simulation can be used also for the different regions as well as for different noncontagious disease predictions.

Seasonal source-sink dynamics at the edge of a species' range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kanda, L.L.; Fuller, T.K.; Sievert, P.R.; Kellogg, R.L.

2009-01-01

The roles of dispersal and population dynamics in determining species' range boundaries recently have received theoretical attention but little empirical work. Here we provide data on survival, reproduction, and movement for a Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana) population at a local distributional edge in central Massachusetts (USA). Most juvenile females that apparently exploited anthropogenic resources survived their first winter, whereas those using adjacent natural resources died of starvation. In spring, adult females recolonized natural areas. A life-table model suggests that a population exploiting anthropogenic resources may grow, acting as source to a geographically interlaced sink of opossums using only natural resources, and also providing emigrants for further range expansion to new human-dominated landscapes. In a geographical model, this source-sink dynamic is consistent with the local distribution identified through road-kill surveys. The Virginia opossum's exploitation of human resources likely ameliorates energetically restrictive winters and may explain both their local distribution and their northward expansion in unsuitable natural climatic regimes. Landscape heterogeneity, such as created by urbanization, may result in source-sink dynamics at highly localized scales. Differential fitness and individual dispersal movements within local populations are key to generating regional distributions, and thus species ranges, that exceed expectations. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

The Relative Effectiveness of the Use of Static and Dynamic Mechanical Models in Teaching Elementary School Children the Theoretical Concept--The Particle Nature of Matter.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ziegler, Robert Edward

This study is concerned with determining the relative effectiveness of a static and dynamic theoretical model in teaching elementary school students to use the particle idea of matter when explaining certain physical phenomena. A clinical method of personal individual interview-testing, teaching, and retesting of a random sample population from…

Origin of Outer Solar System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holman, Matthew J.; Lindstrom, David (Technical Monitor)

2005-01-01

Our ongoing research program combines extensive deep and wide-field observations using a variety of observational platforms with numerical studies of the dynamics of small bodies in the outer solar system in order to advance the main scientific goals of the community studying the Kuiper belt and the outer solar system. These include: (1) determining the relative populations of the known classes of KBOs as well as other possible classes; ( 2 ) determining the size distributions or luminosity function of the individual populations or the Kuiper belt as a whole; (3) determining the inclinations distributions of these populations; (4) establishing the radial extent of the Kuiper belt; ( 5 ) measuring and relating the physical properties of different types of KBOs to those of other solar system bodies; and, (6) completing our systematic inventory of the satellites of the outer planets.

Social determinants of health inequalities: towards a theoretical perspective using systems science.

PubMed

Jayasinghe, Saroj

2015-08-25

A systems approach offers a novel conceptualization to natural and social systems. In recent years, this has led to perceiving population health outcomes as an emergent property of a dynamic and open, complex adaptive system. The current paper explores these themes further and applies the principles of systems approach and complexity science (i.e. systems science) to conceptualize social determinants of health inequalities. The conceptualization can be done in two steps: viewing health inequalities from a systems approach and extending it to include complexity science. Systems approach views health inequalities as patterns within the larger rubric of other facets of the human condition, such as educational outcomes and economic development. This anlysis requires more sophisticated models such as systems dynamic models. An extension of the approach is to view systems as complex adaptive systems, i.e. systems that are 'open' and adapt to the environment. They consist of dynamic adapting subsystems that exhibit non-linear interactions, while being 'open' to a similarly dynamic environment of interconnected systems. They exhibit emergent properties that cannot be estimated with precision by using the known interactions among its components (such as economic development, political freedom, health system, culture etc.). Different combinations of the same bundle of factors or determinants give rise to similar patterns or outcomes (i.e. property of convergence), and minor variations in the initial condition could give rise to widely divergent outcomes. Novel approaches using computer simulation models (e.g. agent-based models) would shed light on possible mechanisms as to how factors or determinants interact and lead to emergent patterns of health inequalities of populations.

How Life History Can Sway the Fixation Probability of Mutants

PubMed Central

Li, Xiang-Yi; Kurokawa, Shun; Giaimo, Stefano; Traulsen, Arne

2016-01-01

In this work, we study the effects of demographic structure on evolutionary dynamics when selection acts on reproduction, survival, or both. In contrast to the previously discovered pattern that the fixation probability of a neutral mutant decreases while the population becomes younger, we show that a mutant with a constant selective advantage may have a maximum or a minimum of the fixation probability in populations with an intermediate fraction of young individuals. This highlights the importance of life history and demographic structure in studying evolutionary dynamics. We also illustrate the fundamental differences between selection on reproduction and selection on survival when age structure is present. In addition, we evaluate the relative importance of size and structure of the population in determining the fixation probability of the mutant. Our work lays the foundation for also studying density- and frequency-dependent effects in populations when demographic structures cannot be neglected. PMID:27129737

Climate variability, rice production and groundwater depletion in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhargava, Alok

2018-03-01

This paper modeled the proximate determinants of rice outputs and groundwater depths in 27 Indian states during 1980-2010. Dynamic random effects models were estimated by maximum likelihood at state and well levels. The main findings from models for rice outputs were that temperatures and rainfall levels were significant predictors, and the relationships were quadratic with respect to rainfall. Moreover, nonlinearities with respect to population changes indicated greater rice production with population increases. Second, groundwater depths were positively associated with temperatures and negatively with rainfall levels and there were nonlinear effects of population changes. Third, dynamic models for in situ groundwater depths in 11 795 wells in mainly unconfined aquifers, accounting for latitudes, longitudes and altitudes, showed steady depletion. Overall, the results indicated that population pressures on food production and environment need to be tackled via long-term healthcare, agricultural, and groundwater recharge policies in India.

Deterministic processes guide long-term synchronised population dynamics in replicate anaerobic digesters

PubMed Central

Vanwonterghem, Inka; Jensen, Paul D; Dennis, Paul G; Hugenholtz, Philip; Rabaey, Korneel; Tyson, Gene W

2014-01-01

A replicate long-term experiment was conducted using anaerobic digestion (AD) as a model process to determine the relative role of niche and neutral theory on microbial community assembly, and to link community dynamics to system performance. AD is performed by a complex network of microorganisms and process stability relies entirely on the synergistic interactions between populations belonging to different functional guilds. In this study, three independent replicate anaerobic digesters were seeded with the same diverse inoculum, supplied with a model substrate, α-cellulose, and operated for 362 days at a 10-day hydraulic residence time under mesophilic conditions. Selective pressure imposed by the operational conditions and model substrate caused large reproducible changes in community composition including an overall decrease in richness in the first month of operation, followed by synchronised population dynamics that correlated with changes in reactor performance. This included the synchronised emergence and decline of distinct Ruminococcus phylotypes at day 148, and emergence of a Clostridium and Methanosaeta phylotype at day 178, when performance became stable in all reactors. These data suggest that many dynamic functional niches are predictably filled by phylogenetically coherent populations over long time scales. Neutral theory would predict that a complex community with a high degree of recognised functional redundancy would lead to stochastic changes in populations and community divergence over time. We conclude that deterministic processes may play a larger role in microbial community dynamics than currently appreciated, and under controlled conditions it may be possible to reliably predict community structural and functional changes over time. PMID:24739627

Digital signaling decouples activation probability and population heterogeneity.

PubMed

Kellogg, Ryan A; Tian, Chengzhe; Lipniacki, Tomasz; Quake, Stephen R; Tay, Savaş

2015-10-21

Digital signaling enhances robustness of cellular decisions in noisy environments, but it is unclear how digital systems transmit temporal information about a stimulus. To understand how temporal input information is encoded and decoded by the NF-κB system, we studied transcription factor dynamics and gene regulation under dose- and duration-modulated inflammatory inputs. Mathematical modeling predicted and microfluidic single-cell experiments confirmed that integral of the stimulus (or area, concentration × duration) controls the fraction of cells that activate NF-κB in the population. However, stimulus temporal profile determined NF-κB dynamics, cell-to-cell variability, and gene expression phenotype. A sustained, weak stimulation lead to heterogeneous activation and delayed timing that is transmitted to gene expression. In contrast, a transient, strong stimulus with the same area caused rapid and uniform dynamics. These results show that digital NF-κB signaling enables multidimensional control of cellular phenotype via input profile, allowing parallel and independent control of single-cell activation probability and population heterogeneity.

[Are simple time lags responsible for cyclic variation of population density? : A comparison of laboratory population dynamics of Brachionus calyciflorus pallas (rotatoria) with computer simulations].

PubMed

Halbach, Udo; Burkhardt, Heinz Jürgen

1972-09-01

Laboratory populations of the rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus were cultured at different temperatures (25, 20, 15°C) but otherwise at constant conditions. The population densities showed relatively constant oscillations (Figs. 1 to 3A-C). Amplitudes and frequencies of the oscillations were positively correlated with temperature (Table 1). A test was made, whether the logistic growth function with simple time lag is able to describe the population curves. There are strong similarities between the simulations (Figs. 1-3E) and the real population dynamics if minor adjustments of the empirically determined parameters are made. There-fore it is suggested that time lags are responsible for the observed oscillations. However, the actual time lags probably do not act in the simple manner of the model, because birth and death rates react with different time lags, and both parameters are dependent on individual age and population density. A more complex model, which incorporates these modifications, should lead to a more realistic description of the observed oscillations.

Modelling the dynamics of feral alfalfa populations and its management implications.

PubMed

Bagavathiannan, Muthukumar V; Begg, Graham S; Gulden, Robert H; Van Acker, Rene C

2012-01-01

Feral populations of cultivated crops can pose challenges to novel trait confinement within agricultural landscapes. Simulation models can be helpful in investigating the underlying dynamics of feral populations and determining suitable management options. We developed a stage-structured matrix population model for roadside feral alfalfa populations occurring in southern Manitoba, Canada. The model accounted for the existence of density-dependence and recruitment subsidy in feral populations. We used the model to investigate the long-term dynamics of feral alfalfa populations, and to evaluate the effectiveness of simulated management strategies such as herbicide application and mowing in controlling feral alfalfa. Results suggest that alfalfa populations occurring in roadside habitats can be persistent and less likely to go extinct under current roadverge management scenarios. Management attempts focused on controlling adult plants alone can be counterproductive due to the presence of density-dependent effects. Targeted herbicide application, which can achieve complete control of seedlings, rosettes and established plants, will be an effective strategy, but the seedbank population may contribute to new recruits. In regions where roadside mowing is regularly practiced, devising a timely mowing strategy (early- to mid-August for southern Manitoba), one that can totally prevent seed production, will be a feasible option for managing feral alfalfa populations. Feral alfalfa populations can be persistent in roadside habitats. Timely mowing or regular targeted herbicide application will be effective in managing feral alfalfa populations and limit feral-population-mediated gene flow in alfalfa. However, in the context of novel trait confinement, the extent to which feral alfalfa populations need to be managed will be dictated by the tolerance levels established by specific production systems for specific traits. The modelling framework outlined in this paper could be applied to other perennial herbaceous plants with similar life-history characteristics.

Demographic and genetic consequences of disturbed sex determination.

PubMed

Wedekind, Claus

2017-09-19

During sex determination, genetic and/or environmental factors determine the cascade of processes of gonad development. Many organisms, therefore, have a developmental window in which their sex determination can be sensitive to, for example, unusual temperatures or chemical pollutants. Disturbed environments can distort population sex ratios and may even cause sex reversal in species with genetic sex determination. The resulting genotype-phenotype mismatches can have long-lasting effects on population demography and genetics. I review the theoretical and empirical work in this context and explore in a simple population model the role of the fitness v yy of chromosomally aberrant YY genotypes that are a consequence of environmentally induced feminization. Low v yy is mostly beneficial for population growth. During feminization, low v yy reduces the proportion of genetic males and hence accelerates population growth, especially at low rates of feminization and at high fitness costs of the feminization itself (i.e. when feminization would otherwise not affect population dynamics much). When sex reversal ceases, low v yy mitigates the negative effects of feminization and can even prevent population extinction. Little is known about v yy in natural populations. The available models now need to be parametrized in order to better predict the long-term consequences of disturbed sex determination.This article is part of the themed issue 'Adult sex ratios and reproductive decisions: a critical re-examination of sex differences in human and animal societies'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events

PubMed Central

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-01-01

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an ‘extinction window’ of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the ‘extinction window’, although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. PMID:24920116

Dispersal-mediated effect of microhabitat availability and density dependence determine population dynamics of a forest floor web spider.

PubMed

Takada, Mayura B; Miyashita, Tadashi

2014-09-01

Landscapes in nature can be viewed as a continuum of small total habitable area with high fragmentation to widely spreading habitats. The dispersal-mediated rescue effect predominates in the former landscapes, while classical density-dependent processes generally prevail in widely spread habitats. A similar principle should be applied to populations of organisms utilizing microhabitats in limited supply. To test this hypothesis, we examined the population dynamics of a web spider, Neriene brongersmai, in 16 populations with varying degrees of microhabitat availability, and we explored whether: (i) high microhabitat availability improves survival rate during density-independent movement, while the resultant high density reduces survival rate in a density-dependent manner; and (ii) temporal population stability increases with microhabitat availability at the population level. Furthermore, we conducted two types of field experiments to verify whether high microhabitat availability actually reduces mortality associated with web-site movement. Field observations revealed that demographic change in N. brongersmai populations was affected by three factors at different stages, namely the microhabitat limitation from the early to late juvenile stages, the density dependence from the late juvenile to adult stages and the food limitation from the adult to the next early juvenile stages. In addition, there was a tendency for a positive association between population stability and microhabitat availability at the population level. A small-scale experiment, where the frequency of spider web relocation was equalized artificially, revealed that high microhabitat availability elevated the survival rate during a movement event between web-sites. The larger spatiotemporal scale experiment also revealed an improved spider survival rate following treatment with high microhabitat availability, even though spider density was kept at a relatively low level. The population dynamics of N. brongersmai can be determined primarily by density-independent processes based on web-site fragmentation and density-dependent processes driven by interference competition. We conclude that depending on the amount of habitat resources, the relative importance of the two contrasting paradigms-equilibrium and non-equilibrium-appears to vary, even within a particular system. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Dynamics of a plant-herbivore-predator system with plant-toxicity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feng, Zhilan; Qiu, Zhipeng; Liu, Rongsong; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2011-01-01

A system of ordinary differential equations is considered that models the interactions of two plant species populations, an herbivore population, and a predator population. We use a toxin-determined functional response to describe the interactions between plant species and herbivores and use a Holling Type II functional response to model the interactions between herbivores and predators. In order to study how the predators impact the succession of vegetation, we derive invasion conditions under which a plant species can invade into an environment in which another plant species is co-existing with a herbivore population with or without a predator population. These conditions provide threshold quantities for several parameters that may play a key role in the dynamics of the system. Numerical simulations are conducted to reinforce the analytical results. This model can be applied to a boreal ecosystem trophic chain to examine the possible cascading effects of predator-control actions when plant species differ in their levels of toxic defense.

Dynamics of a plant-herbivore-predator system with plant-toxicity.

PubMed

Feng, Zhilan; Qiu, Zhipeng; Liu, Rongsong; DeAngelis, Donald L

2011-02-01

A system of ordinary differential equations is considered that models the interactions of two plant species populations, an herbivore population, and a predator population. We use a toxin-determined functional response to describe the interactions between plant species and herbivores and use a Holling Type II functional response to model the interactions between herbivores and predators. In order to study how the predators impact the succession of vegetation, we derive invasion conditions under which a plant species can invade into an environment in which another plant species is co-existing with a herbivore population with or without a predator population. These conditions provide threshold quantities for several parameters that may play a key role in the dynamics of the system. Numerical simulations are conducted to reinforce the analytical results. This model can be applied to a boreal ecosystem trophic chain to examine the possible cascading effects of predator-control actions when plant species differ in their levels of toxic defense. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Threshold Dynamics of a Temperature-Dependent Stage-Structured Mosquito Population Model with Nested Delays.

PubMed

Wang, Xiunan; Zou, Xingfu

2018-05-21

Mosquito-borne diseases remain a significant threat to public health and economics. Since mosquitoes are quite sensitive to temperature, global warming may not only worsen the disease transmission case in current endemic areas but also facilitate mosquito population together with pathogens to establish in new regions. Therefore, understanding mosquito population dynamics under the impact of temperature is considerably important for making disease control policies. In this paper, we develop a stage-structured mosquito population model in the environment of a temperature-controlled experiment. The model turns out to be a system of periodic delay differential equations with periodic delays. We show that the basic reproduction number is a threshold parameter which determines whether the mosquito population goes to extinction or remains persistent. We then estimate the parameter values for Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that transmits dengue virus. We verify the analytic result by numerical simulations with the temperature data of Colombo, Sri Lanka where a dengue outbreak occurred in 2017.

Salinity fluctuation influencing biological adaptation: growth dynamics and Na+ /K+ -ATPase activity in a euryhaline bacterium.

PubMed

Yang, Hao; Meng, Yang; Song, Youxin; Tan, Yalin; Warren, Alan; Li, Jiqiu; Lin, Xiaofeng

2017-07-01

Although salinity fluctuation is a prominent characteristic of many coastal ecosystems, its effects on biological adaptation have not yet been fully recognized. To test the salinity fluctuations on biological adaptation, population growth dynamics and Na + /K + -ATPase activity were investigated in the euryhaline bacterium Idiomarina sp. DYB, which was acclimated at different salinity exposure levels, exposure times, and shifts in direction of salinity. Results showed: (1) bacterial population growth dynamics and Na + /K + -ATPase activity changed significantly in response to salinity fluctuation; (2) patterns of variation in bacterial growth dynamics were related to exposure times, levels of salinity, and shifts in direction of salinity change; (3) significant tradeoffs were detected between growth rate (r) and carrying capacity (K) on the one hand, and Na + /K + -ATPase activity on the other; and (4) beneficial acclimation was confirmed in Idiomarina sp. DYB. In brief, this study demonstrated that salinity fluctuation can change the population growth dynamics, Na + /K + -ATPase activity, and tradeoffs between r, K, and Na + /K + -ATPase activity, thus facilitating bacterial adaption in a changing environment. These findings provide constructive information for determining biological response patterns to environmental change. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Spatial dynamics of invasion: the geometry of introduced species.

PubMed

Korniss, Gyorgy; Caraco, Thomas

2005-03-07

Many exotic species combine low probability of establishment at each introduction with rapid population growth once introduction does succeed. To analyse this phenomenon, we note that invaders often cluster spatially when rare, and consequently an introduced exotic's population dynamics should depend on locally structured interactions. Ecological theory for spatially structured invasion relies on deterministic approximations, and determinism does not address the observed uncertainty of the exotic-introduction process. We take a new approach to the population dynamics of invasion and, by extension, to the general question of invasibility in any spatial ecology. We apply the physical theory for nucleation of spatial systems to a lattice-based model of competition between plant species, a resident and an invader, and the analysis reaches conclusions that differ qualitatively from the standard ecological theories. Nucleation theory distinguishes between dynamics of single- and multi-cluster invasion. Low introduction rates and small system size produce single-cluster dynamics, where success or failure of introduction is inherently stochastic. Single-cluster invasion occurs only if the cluster reaches a critical size, typically preceded by a number of failed attempts. For this case, we identify the functional form of the probability distribution of time elapsing until invasion succeeds. Although multi-cluster invasion for sufficiently large systems exhibits spatial averaging and almost-deterministic dynamics of the global densities, an analytical approximation from nucleation theory, known as Avrami's law, describes our simulation results far better than standard ecological approximations.

Coevolutionary dynamics in large, but finite populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Traulsen, Arne; Claussen, Jens Christian; Hauert, Christoph

2006-07-01

Coevolving and competing species or game-theoretic strategies exhibit rich and complex dynamics for which a general theoretical framework based on finite populations is still lacking. Recently, an explicit mean-field description in the form of a Fokker-Planck equation was derived for frequency-dependent selection with two strategies in finite populations based on microscopic processes [A. Traulsen, J. C. Claussen, and C. Hauert, Phys. Rev. Lett. 95, 238701 (2005)]. Here we generalize this approach in a twofold way: First, we extend the framework to an arbitrary number of strategies and second, we allow for mutations in the evolutionary process. The deterministic limit of infinite population size of the frequency-dependent Moran process yields the adjusted replicator-mutator equation, which describes the combined effect of selection and mutation. For finite populations, we provide an extension taking random drift into account. In the limit of neutral selection, i.e., whenever the process is determined by random drift and mutations, the stationary strategy distribution is derived. This distribution forms the background for the coevolutionary process. In particular, a critical mutation rate uc is obtained separating two scenarios: above uc the population predominantly consists of a mixture of strategies whereas below uc the population tends to be in homogeneous states. For one of the fundamental problems in evolutionary biology, the evolution of cooperation under Darwinian selection, we demonstrate that the analytical framework provides excellent approximations to individual based simulations even for rather small population sizes. This approach complements simulation results and provides a deeper, systematic understanding of coevolutionary dynamics.

Development of a dynamic framework to explain population patterns of leisure-time physical activity through agent-based modeling.

PubMed

Garcia, Leandro M T; Diez Roux, Ana V; Martins, André C R; Yang, Yong; Florindo, Alex A

2017-08-22

Despite the increasing body of evidences on the factors influencing leisure-time physical activity, our understanding of the mechanisms and interactions that lead to the formation and evolution of population patterns is still limited. Moreover, most frameworks in this field fail to capture dynamic processes. Our aim was to create a dynamic conceptual model depicting the interaction between key psychological attributes of individuals and main aspects of the built and social environments in which they live. This conceptual model will inform and support the development of an agent-based model aimed to explore how population patterns of LTPA in adults may emerge from the dynamic interplay between psychological traits and built and social environments. We integrated existing theories and models as well as available empirical data (both from literature reviews), and expert opinions (based on a systematic expert assessment of an intermediary version of the model). The model explicitly presents intention as the proximal determinant of leisure-time physical activity, a relationship dynamically moderated by the built environment (access, quality, and available activities) - with the strength of the moderation varying as a function of the person's intention- and influenced both by the social environment (proximal network's and community's behavior) and the person's behavior. Our conceptual model is well supported by evidence and experts' opinions and will inform the design of our agent-based model, as well as data collection and analysis of future investigations on population patterns of leisure-time physical activity among adults.

Population dynamics can be more important than physiological limits for determining range shifts under climate change.

PubMed

Fordham, Damien A; Mellin, Camille; Russell, Bayden D; Akçakaya, Reşit H; Bradshaw, Corey J A; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Caley, Julian M; Connell, Sean D; Mayfield, Stephen; Shepherd, Scoresby A; Brook, Barry W

2013-10-01

Evidence is accumulating that species' responses to climate changes are best predicted by modelling the interaction of physiological limits, biotic processes and the effects of dispersal-limitation. Using commercially harvested blacklip (Haliotis rubra) and greenlip abalone (Haliotis laevigata) as case studies, we determine the relative importance of accounting for interactions among physiology, metapopulation dynamics and exploitation in predictions of range (geographical occupancy) and abundance (spatially explicit density) under various climate change scenarios. Traditional correlative ecological niche models (ENM) predict that climate change will benefit the commercial exploitation of abalone by promoting increased abundances without any reduction in range size. However, models that account simultaneously for demographic processes and physiological responses to climate-related factors result in future (and present) estimates of area of occupancy (AOO) and abundance that differ from those generated by ENMs alone. Range expansion and population growth are unlikely for blacklip abalone because of important interactions between climate-dependent mortality and metapopulation processes; in contrast, greenlip abalone should increase in abundance despite a contraction in AOO. The strongly non-linear relationship between abalone population size and AOO has important ramifications for the use of ENM predictions that rely on metrics describing change in habitat area as proxies for extinction risk. These results show that predicting species' responses to climate change often require physiological information to understand climatic range determinants, and a metapopulation model that can make full use of this data to more realistically account for processes such as local extirpation, demographic rescue, source-sink dynamics and dispersal-limitation. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, J.S.; Sokol, R.C.; Liu, X.

Microbial dechlorination of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) often stops although a significant number of removable chlorines remain. To determine the reason for the cessation, we investigated the limitation of organic carbon, PCB bioavailability, and inhibition by metabolic products. Enrichment with carbon sources did not induce additional chlorination, indicating the plateau was not due to depletion of organic carbon. The bioavailability was not limiting, since a subcritical micelle concentration of the surfactant, which enhanced desorption without inhibiting dechlorinating microorganisms, failed to lower the plateau. Neither was it due to accumulation of metabolites, since no additional dechlorination was detected when plateau sediments weremore » incubated with fresh medium. Similarly, dechlorination was not inhibited in freshly spiked sediment slurries. Dechlorination ended up at the same level with nearly identical congener profiles, regardless of treatment. These results indicate that cessation of dechlorination was due to the accumulation of daughter congeners, which cannot be used as electron acceptors by microbes. To determine whether the decreasing availability affected the microorganisms, we determined the population dynamics of dechlorinators using the most probable number technique. The growth dynamics of the dechlorinators mirrored the time course of dechlorination. It started when the population increased by two orders of magnitude. Once dechlorination stopped the dechlorinating population also began to decrease. When dechlorinators were inoculated into PCB-free sediments, the population decreased over time. The decrease of the population as dechlorination ceased confirms that the diminishing availability of congeners was the reason for the incomplete dechlorination. Recent findings have shown that a second phase of dechlorination of certain congeners can occur after a long lag. 45 refs., 8 figs.« less

Predictive Modeling of Rice Yellow Stem Borer Population Dynamics under Climate Change Scenarios in Indramayu

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurhayati, E.; Koesmaryono, Y.; Impron

2017-03-01

Rice Yellow Stem Borer (YSB) is one of the major insect pests in rice plants that has high attack intensity in rice production center areas, especially in West Java. This pest is consider as holometabola insects that causes rice damage in the vegetative phase (deadheart) as well as generative phase (whitehead). Climatic factor is one of the environmental factors influence the pattern of dynamics population. The purpose of this study was to develop a predictive modeling of YSB pest dynamics population under climate change scenarios (2016-2035 period) using Dymex Model in Indramayu area, West Java. YSB modeling required two main components, namely climate parameters and YSB development lower threshold of temperature (To) to describe YSB life cycle in every phase. Calibration and validation test of models showed the coefficient of determination (R2) between the predicted results and observations of the study area were 0.74 and 0.88 respectively, which was able to illustrate the development, mortality, transfer of individuals from one stage to the next life also fecundity and YSB reproduction. On baseline climate condition, there was a tendency of population abundance peak (outbreak) occured when a change of rainfall intensity in the rainy season transition to dry season or the opposite conditions was happen. In both of application of climate change scenarios, the model outputs were generated well and able to predict the pattern of YSB population dynamics with a the increasing trend of specific population numbers, generation numbers per season and also shifting pattern of populations abundance peak in the future climatic conditions. These results can be adopted as a tool to predict outbreak and to give early warning to control YSB pest more effectively.

Impact of environmental colored noise in single-species population dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spanio, Tommaso; Hidalgo, Jorge; Muñoz, Miguel A.

2017-10-01

Variability on external conditions has important consequences for the dynamics and the organization of biological systems. In many cases, the characteristic timescale of environmental changes as well as their correlations play a fundamental role in the way living systems adapt and respond to it. A proper mathematical approach to understand population dynamics, thus, requires approaches more refined than, e.g., simple white-noise approximations. To shed further light onto this problem, in this paper we propose a unifying framework based on different analytical and numerical tools available to deal with "colored" environmental noise. In particular, we employ a "unified colored noise approximation" to map the original problem into an effective one with white noise, and then we apply a standard path integral approach to gain analytical understanding. For the sake of specificity, we present our approach using as a guideline a variation of the contact process—which can also be seen as a birth-death process of the Malthus-Verhulst class—where the propagation or birth rate varies stochastically in time. Our approach allows us to tackle in a systematic manner some of the relevant questions concerning population dynamics under environmental variability, such as determining the stationary population density, establishing the conditions under which a population may become extinct, and estimating extinction times. We focus on the emerging phase diagram and its possible phase transitions, underlying how these are affected by the presence of environmental noise time-correlations.

Relation between the Electromagnetic Processes in the Near-Earth Space and Dynamics of the Biological Resources in Russian Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makarova, L. N.; Shirochkov, A. V.

It is a well-established fact that the electromagnetic processes of different kind occurring in the near- Earth space produce significant effects in the Earth's atmosphere at all altitudes including the ground surface. There are some indications that these processes could influence at least indirectly the human health conditions. In this study we explore relation between perturbations in the solar wind (dynamics of its density, velocity, intensity of the interplanetary magnetic field) and long- term changes in population of some species of Arctic fauna (lemmings, polar foxes, deers, wolves, elks etc.) It was found out that the best statistical coupling between various Space Weather parameters and the changes in populations of the Arctic fauna species appears when the solar wind dynamic pressure magnitude is taken as one of these parameters. It was shown that the secular variations of the solar UV radiation expressed as the Total Solar Irradiance appears to be a space parameter, showing the best correlation with the changes in population of the Arctic fauna species. Such high correlation coefficients as 0.8 are obtained. It is premature now to discuss exact physical mechanisms, which could explain the obtained relations. A possible mutual dependence of some climatic factors and fauna population in Arctic on the Space Weather parameters is discussed in this connection. Conclusion is made that the electromagnetic fields of space origin is an important factor determining dynamics of population of the Arctic fauna species.

Sea lice and salmon population dynamics: effects of exposure time for migratory fish.

PubMed

Krkosek, Martin; Morton, Alexandra; Volpe, John P; Lewis, Mark A

2009-08-07

The ecological impact of parasite transmission from fish farms is probably mediated by the migration of wild fishes, which determines the period of exposure to parasites. For Pacific salmon and the parasitic sea louse, Lepeophtheirus salmonis, analysis of the exposure period may resolve conflicting observations of epizootic mortality in field studies and parasite rejection in experiments. This is because exposure periods can differ by 2-3 orders of magnitude, ranging from months in the field to hours in experiments. We developed a mathematical model of salmon-louse population dynamics, parametrized by a study that monitored naturally infected juvenile salmon held in ocean enclosures. Analysis of replicated trials indicates that lice suffer high mortality, particularly during pre-adult stages. The model suggests louse populations rapidly decline following brief exposure of juvenile salmon, similar to laboratory study designs and data. However, when the exposure period lasts for several weeks, as occurs when juvenile salmon migrate past salmon farms, the model predicts that lice accumulate to abundances that can elevate salmon mortality and depress salmon populations. The duration of parasite exposure is probably critical to salmon-louse population dynamics, and should therefore be accommodated in coastal planning and management where fish farms are situated on wild fish migration routes.

The σ law of evolutionary dynamics in community-structured population.

PubMed

Tang, Changbing; Li, Xiang; Cao, Lang; Zhan, Jingyuan

2012-08-07

Evolutionary game dynamics in finite populations provide a new framework to understand the selection of traits with frequency-dependent fitness. Recently, a simple but fundamental law of evolutionary dynamics, which we call σ law, describes how to determine the selection between two competing strategies: in most evolutionary processes with two strategies, A and B, strategy A is favored over B in weak selection if and only if σR+S>T+σP. This relationship holds for a wide variety of structured populations with mutation rate and weak selection under certain assumptions. In this paper, we propose a model of games based on a community-structured population and revisit this law under the Moran process. By calculating the average payoffs of A and B individuals with the method of effective sojourn time, we find that σ features not only the structured population characteristics, but also the reaction rate between individuals. That is to say, an interaction between two individuals are not uniform, and we can take σ as a reaction rate between any two individuals with the same strategy. We verify this viewpoint by the modified replicator equation with non-uniform interaction rates in a simplified version of the prisoner's dilemma game (PDG). Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Outcrossed sex allows a selfish gene to invade yeast populations.

PubMed

Goddard, M R; Greig, D; Burt, A

2001-12-22

Homing endonuclease genes (HEGs) in eukaryotes are optional genes that have no obvious effect on host phenotype except for causing chromosomes not containing a copy of the gene to be cut, thus causing them to be inherited at a greater than Mendelian rate via gene conversion. These genes are therefore expected to increase in frequency in outcrossed populations, but not in obligately selfed populations. In order to test this idea, we compared the dynamics of the VDE HEG in six replicate outcrossed and inbred populations of yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae). VDE increased in frequency from 0.21 to 0.55 in four outcrossed generations, but showed no change in frequency in the inbred populations. The absence of change in the inbred populations indicates that any effect of VDE on mitotic replication rates is less than 1%. The data from the outcrossed populations best fit a model in which 82% of individuals are derived from outcrossing and VDE is inherited by 74% of the meiotic products from heterozygotes (as compared with 50% for Mendelian genes). These results empirically demonstrate how a host mating system plays a key role in determining the population dynamics of a selfish gene.

Outcrossed sex allows a selfish gene to invade yeast populations.

PubMed Central

Goddard, M. R.; Greig, D.; Burt, A.

2001-01-01

Homing endonuclease genes (HEGs) in eukaryotes are optional genes that have no obvious effect on host phenotype except for causing chromosomes not containing a copy of the gene to be cut, thus causing them to be inherited at a greater than Mendelian rate via gene conversion. These genes are therefore expected to increase in frequency in outcrossed populations, but not in obligately selfed populations. In order to test this idea, we compared the dynamics of the VDE HEG in six replicate outcrossed and inbred populations of yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae). VDE increased in frequency from 0.21 to 0.55 in four outcrossed generations, but showed no change in frequency in the inbred populations. The absence of change in the inbred populations indicates that any effect of VDE on mitotic replication rates is less than 1%. The data from the outcrossed populations best fit a model in which 82% of individuals are derived from outcrossing and VDE is inherited by 74% of the meiotic products from heterozygotes (as compared with 50% for Mendelian genes). These results empirically demonstrate how a host mating system plays a key role in determining the population dynamics of a selfish gene. PMID:11749707

Ecological constraints influence the emergence of cooperative breeding when population dynamics determine the fitness of helpers.

PubMed

McLeod, David V; Wild, Geoff

2013-11-01

Cooperative breeding is a system in which certain individuals facilitate the production of offspring by others. The ecological constraints hypothesis states that ecological conditions deter individuals from breeding independently, and so individuals breed cooperatively to make the best of a bad situation. Current theoretical support for the ecological constraints hypothesis is lacking. We formulate a mathematical model that emphasizes the underlying ecology of cooperative breeders. Our goal is to derive theoretical support for the ecological constraints hypothesis using an ecological model of population dynamics. We consider a population composed of two kinds of individuals, nonbreeders (auxiliaries) and breeders. We suppose that help provided by an auxiliary increases breeder fecundity, but reduces the probability with which the auxiliary becomes a breeder. Our main result is a condition that guarantees success of auxiliary help. We predict that increasing the cost of dispersal promotes helping, in agreement with verbal theory. We also predict that increasing breeder mortality can either hinder helping (at high population densities), or promote it (at low population densities). We conclude that ecological constraints can exert influence over the evolution of auxiliary help when population dynamics are considered; moreover, that influence need not coincide with direct fitness benefits as previously found. © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Effects of recruitment, growth, and exploitation on walleye population size structure in northern Wisconsin lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Michael J.; Nate, Nancy A.

2014-01-01

We evaluated the dynamics of walleye Sander vitreus population size structure, as indexed by the proportional size distribution (PSD) of quality-length fish, in Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003 and in 204 other lakes in northern Wisconsin during 1990–2011. We estimated PSD from angler-caught walleyes in Escanaba Lake and from spring electrofishing in 204 other lakes, and then related PSD to annual estimates of recruitment to age-3, length at age 3, and annual angling exploitation rate. In Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003, annual estimates of PSD were highly dynamic, growth (positively) explained 35% of PSD variation, recruitment explained only 3% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 7% of PSD variation. In 204 other northern Wisconsin lakes during 1990–2011, PSD varied widely among lakes, recruitment (negatively) explained 29% of PSD variation, growth (positively) explained 21% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 4% of PSD variation. We conclude that population size structure was most strongly driven by recruitment and growth, rather than exploitation, in northern Wisconsin walleye populations. Studies of other species over wide spatial and temporal ranges of recruitment, growth, and mortality are needed to determine which dynamic rate most strongly influences population size structure of other species. Our findings indicate a need to be cautious about assuming exploitation is a strong driver of walleye population size structure.

Population cycles and species diversity in dynamic Kill-the-Winner model of microbial ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

2017-01-01

Determinants of species diversity in microbial ecosystems remain poorly understood. Bacteriophages are believed to increase the diversity by the virtue of Kill-the-Winner infection bias preventing the fastest growing organism from taking over the community. Phage-bacterial ecosystems are traditionally described in terms of the static equilibrium state of Lotka-Volterra equations in which bacterial growth is exactly balanced by losses due to phage predation. Here we consider a more dynamic scenario in which phage infections give rise to abrupt and severe collapses of bacterial populations whenever they become sufficiently large. As a consequence, each bacterial population in our model follows cyclic dynamics of exponential growth interrupted by sudden declines. The total population of all species fluctuates around the carrying capacity of the environment, making these cycles cryptic. While a subset of the slowest growing species in our model is always driven towards extinction, in general the overall ecosystem diversity remains high. The number of surviving species is inversely proportional to the variation in their growth rates but increases with the frequency and severity of phage-induced collapses. Thus counter-intuitively we predict that microbial communities exposed to more violent perturbations should have higher diversity.

Trees wanted--dead or alive! Host selection and population dynamics in tree-killing bark beetles.

PubMed

Kausrud, Kyrre L; Grégoire, Jean-Claude; Skarpaas, Olav; Erbilgin, Nadir; Gilbert, Marius; Økland, Bjørn; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2011-01-01

Bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) feed and breed in dead or severely weakened host trees. When their population densities are high, some species aggregate on healthy host trees so that their defences may be exhausted and the inner bark successfully colonized, killing the tree in the process. Here we investigate under what conditions participating with unrelated conspecifics in risky mass attacks on living trees is an adaptive strategy, and what this can tell us about bark beetle outbreak dynamics. We find that the outcome of individual host selection may deviate from the ideal free distribution in a way that facilitates the emergence of tree-killing (aggressive) behavior, and that any heritability on traits governing aggressiveness seems likely to exist in a state of flux or cycles consistent with variability observed in natural populations. This may have implications for how economically and ecologically important species respond to environmental changes in climate and landscape (forest) structure. The population dynamics emerging from individual behavior are complex, capable of switching between "endemic" and "epidemic" regimes spontaneously or following changes in host availability or resistance. Model predictions are compared to empirical observations, and we identify some factors determining the occurrence and self-limitation of epidemics.

Population cycles and species diversity in dynamic Kill-the-Winner model of microbial ecosystems

PubMed Central

Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

2017-01-01

Determinants of species diversity in microbial ecosystems remain poorly understood. Bacteriophages are believed to increase the diversity by the virtue of Kill-the-Winner infection bias preventing the fastest growing organism from taking over the community. Phage-bacterial ecosystems are traditionally described in terms of the static equilibrium state of Lotka-Volterra equations in which bacterial growth is exactly balanced by losses due to phage predation. Here we consider a more dynamic scenario in which phage infections give rise to abrupt and severe collapses of bacterial populations whenever they become sufficiently large. As a consequence, each bacterial population in our model follows cyclic dynamics of exponential growth interrupted by sudden declines. The total population of all species fluctuates around the carrying capacity of the environment, making these cycles cryptic. While a subset of the slowest growing species in our model is always driven towards extinction, in general the overall ecosystem diversity remains high. The number of surviving species is inversely proportional to the variation in their growth rates but increases with the frequency and severity of phage-induced collapses. Thus counter-intuitively we predict that microbial communities exposed to more violent perturbations should have higher diversity. PMID:28051127

Uncoupling the Effects of Seed Predation and Seed Dispersal by Granivorous Ants on Plant Population Dynamics

PubMed Central

Arnan, Xavier; Molowny-Horas, Roberto; Rodrigo, Anselm; Retana, Javier

2012-01-01

Secondary seed dispersal is an important plant-animal interaction, which is central to understanding plant population and community dynamics. Very little information is still available on the effects of dispersal on plant demography and, particularly, for ant-seed dispersal interactions. As many other interactions, seed dispersal by animals involves costs (seed predation) and benefits (seed dispersal), the balance of which determines the outcome of the interaction. Separate quantification of each of them is essential in order to understand the effects of this interaction. To address this issue, we have successfully separated and analyzed the costs and benefits of seed dispersal by seed-harvesting ants on the plant population dynamics of three shrub species with different traits. To that aim a stochastic, spatially-explicit individually-based simulation model has been implemented based on actual data sets. The results from our simulation model agree with theoretical models of plant response dependent on seed dispersal, for one plant species, and ant-mediated seed predation, for another one. In these cases, model predictions were close to the observed values at field. Nonetheless, these ecological processes did not affect in anyway a third species, for which the model predictions were far from the observed values. This indicates that the balance between costs and benefits associated to secondary seed dispersal is clearly related to specific traits. This study is one of the first works that analyze tradeoffs of secondary seed dispersal on plant population dynamics, by disentangling the effects of related costs and benefits. We suggest analyzing the effects of interactions on population dynamics as opposed to merely analyzing the partners and their interaction strength. PMID:22880125

First Results of Modeling Radiation Belt Electron Dynamics with the SAMI3 Plasmasphere Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komar, C. M.; Glocer, A.; Huba, J.; Fok, M. C. H.; Kang, S. B.; Buzulukova, N.

2017-12-01

The radiation belts were one of the first discoveries of the Space Age some sixty years ago and radiation belt models have been improving since the discovery of the radiation belts. The plasmasphere is one region that has been critically important to determining the dynamics of radiation belt populations. This region of space plays a critical role in describing the distribution of chorus and magnetospheric hiss waves throughout the inner magnetosphere. Both of these waves have been shown to interact with energetic electrons in the radiation belts and can result in the energization or loss of radiation belt electrons. However, radiation belt models have been historically limited in describing the distribution of cold plasmaspheric plasma and have relied on empirically determined plasmasphere models. Some plasmasphere models use an azimuthally symmetric distribution of the plasmasphere which can fail to capture important plasmaspheric dynamics such as the development of plasmaspheric drainage plumes. Previous work have coupled the kinetic bounce-averaged Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere (CIMI) model used to model ring current and radiation belt populations with the Block-adaptive Tree Solar wind Roe-type Upwind Scheme (BATSRUS) global magnetohydrodynamic model to self-consistently obtain the magnetospheric magnetic field and ionospheric potential. The present work will utilize this previous coupling and will additionally couple the SAMI3 plasmasphere model to better represent the dynamics on the plasmasphere and its role in determining the distribution of waves throughout the inner magnetosphere. First results on the relevance of chorus, hiss, and ultralow frequency waves on radiation belt electron dynamics will be discussed in context of the June 1st, 2013 storm-time dropout event.

Critical factors in the establishment of allopolyploids.

PubMed

Fowler, Norma L; Levin, Donald A

2016-07-01

The growth and spread of new polyploid populations have been explained in terms of fitness advantages over their diploid progenitors. However, a fitness advantage is not sufficient to insure the establishment of a polyploid; it must also overcome the obstacles of demographic stochasticity and minority disadvantage. Several studies have addressed the population dynamics of autopolyploids, but the present study is the first to consider allopolyploids, which are affected by more factors than autopolyploids. We constructed a population dynamic model of four types of plants (two parent species, hybrids, allopolyploids) that also included an explicit breeding system. The numbers of plants of each type were the most important factors determining whether the new allopolyploid would become established. More polyploid plants greatly increased the likelihood of polyploid persistence. More plants of the parent species and more hybrids resulted in more polyploids being produced. The model parameters with the most effect on polyploid establishment were potential population size (K), individual plant fecundity, and niche separation (α). The most important breeding system parameters were selfing rates, which mitigated minority disadvantage imposed by pollen limitation. The importance of population sizes, and the parameters that controlled them, in overcoming demographic stochasticity parallels the well-recognized role of propagule pressure in determining the success of invasive species. We modeled the establishment of a new allopolyploid; analogous considerations would affect the establishment of a new autopolyploid. The critical role of population sizes in polyploid establishment should be more widely recognized. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

General two-species interacting Lotka-Volterra system: Population dynamics and wave propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Haoqi; Wang, Mao-Xiang; Lai, Pik-Yin

2018-05-01

The population dynamics of two interacting species modeled by the Lotka-Volterra (LV) model with general parameters that can promote or suppress the other species is studied. It is found that the properties of the two species' isoclines determine the interaction of species, leading to six regimes in the phase diagram of interspecies interaction; i.e., there are six different interspecific relationships described by the LV model. Four regimes allow for nontrivial species coexistence, among which it is found that three of them are stable, namely, weak competition, mutualism, and predator-prey scenarios can lead to win-win coexistence situations. The Lyapunov function for general nontrivial two-species coexistence is also constructed. Furthermore, in the presence of spatial diffusion of the species, the dynamics can lead to steady wavefront propagation and can alter the population map. Propagating wavefront solutions in one dimension are investigated analytically and by numerical solutions. The steady wavefront speeds are obtained analytically via nonlinear dynamics analysis and verified by numerical solutions. In addition to the inter- and intraspecific interaction parameters, the intrinsic speed parameters of each species play a decisive role in species populations and wave properties. In some regimes, both species can copropagate with the same wave speeds in a finite range of parameters. Our results are further discussed in the light of possible biological relevance and ecological implications.

Relative host body condition and food availability influence epidemic dynamics: a Poecilia reticulata-Gyrodactylus turnbulli host-parasite model.

PubMed

Tadiri, Christina P; Dargent, Felipe; Scott, Marilyn E

2013-03-01

Understanding disease transmission is important to species management and human health. Host body condition, nutrition and disease susceptibility interact in a complex manner, and while the individual effects of these variables are well known, our understanding of how they interact and translate to population dynamics is limited. Our objective was to determine whether host relative body condition influences epidemic dynamics, and how this relationship is affected by food availability. Poecilia reticulata (guppies) of roughly similar size were selected and assembled randomly into populations of 10 guppies assigned to 3 different food availability treatments, and the relative condition index (Kn) of each fish was calculated. We infected 1 individual per group ('source' fish) with Gyrodactyus turnbulli and counted parasites on each fish every other day for 10 days. Epidemic parameters for each population were analysed using generalized linear models. High host Kn-particularly that of the 'source' fish-exerted a positive effect on incidence, peak parasite burden, and the degree of parasite aggregation. Low food availability increased the strength of the associations with peak burden and aggregation. Our findings suggest that host Kn and food availability interact to influence epidemic dynamics, and that the condition of the individual that brings the parasite into the host population has a profound impact on the spread of infection.

Contrasting effects of temperature and precipitation change on amphibian phenology, abundance and performance.

PubMed

Ficetola, Gentile Francesco; Maiorano, Luigi

2016-07-01

Climate change is determining a generalized phenological advancement, and amphibians are among the taxa showing the strongest phenological responsiveness to warming temperatures. Amphibians are strongly influenced by climate change, but we do not have a clear picture of how climate influences important parameters of amphibian populations, such as abundance, survival, breeding success and morphology. Furthermore, the relative impact of temperature and precipitation change remains underappreciated. We used Bayesian meta-analysis and meta-regression to quantify the impact of temperature and precipitation change on amphibian phenology, abundance, individual features and performance. We obtained effect sizes from studies performed in five continents. Temperature increase was the major driver of phenological advancement, while the impact of precipitation on phenology was weak. Conversely, population dynamics was mostly determined by precipitation: negative trends were associated with drying regimes. The impact of precipitation on abundance was particularly strong in tropical areas, while the importance of temperature was feeble. Both temperature and precipitation influenced parameters representing breeding performance, morphology, developmental rate and survival, but the response was highly heterogeneous among species. For instance, warming temperature increased body size in some species, and decreased size in others. Similarly, rainy periods increased survival of some species and reduced the survival of others. Our study showed contrasting impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on amphibian populations. Both climatic parameters strongly influenced amphibian performance, but temperature was the major determinant of the phenological changes, while precipitation had the major role on population dynamics, with alarming declines associated with drying trends.

Age-specific infectious period shapes dynamics of pneumonia in bighorn sheep.

PubMed

Plowright, Raina K; Manlove, Kezia R; Besser, Thomas E; Páez, David J; Andrews, Kimberly R; Matthews, Patrick E; Waits, Lisette P; Hudson, Peter J; Cassirer, E Frances

2017-10-01

Superspreading, the phenomenon where a small proportion of individuals contribute disproportionately to new infections, has profound effects on disease dynamics. Superspreading can arise through variation in contacts, infectiousness or infectious periods. The latter has received little attention, yet it drives the dynamics of many diseases of critical public health, livestock health and conservation concern. Here, we present rare evidence of variation in infectious periods underlying a superspreading phenomenon in a free-ranging wildlife system. We detected persistent infections of Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae, the primary causative agent of pneumonia in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis), in a small number of older individuals that were homozygous at an immunologically relevant genetic locus. Interactions among age-structure, genetic composition and infectious periods may drive feedbacks in disease dynamics that determine the magnitude of population response to infection. Accordingly, variation in initial conditions may explain divergent population responses to infection that range from recovery to catastrophic decline and extirpation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Life-stage differences in spatial genetic structure in an irruptive forest insect: implications for dispersal and spatial synchrony

Treesearch

Patrick M.A. James; Barry Cooke; Bryan M.T. Brunet; Lisa M. Lumley; Felix A.H. Sperling; Marie-Josee Fortin; Vanessa S. Quinn; Brian R. Sturtevant

2015-01-01

Dispersal determines the flux of individuals, energy and information and is therefore a key determinant of ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Yet, it remains difficult to quantify its importance relative to other factors. This is particularly true in cyclic populations in which demography, drift and dispersal contribute to spatio-temporal variability in genetic...

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-08-06

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an 'extinction window' of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the 'extinction window', although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Thaumarchaeal amoA and nirK Gene Abundance Patterns Reveal Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Ammonia-oxidizing Archaeal Populations in Monterey Bay, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolar, B. B.; Reji, L.; Smith, J. M.; Chavez, F.; Francis, C.

2016-12-01

Thaumarchaeaota are among the most abundant microorganisms on the planet, and are significant players in the global nitrogen cycle. All cultivated members of the phylum are capable of performing the first and rate-limiting step of nitrification - the aerobic oxidation of ammonia to nitrite. In marine environments, ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) have been found to greatly outnumber their bacterial counterparts. However, much about their ecology remains largely unknown. Monterey Bay, a non-estuarine embayment on the central California coast, is an ideal site for studying the dynamics of natural thaumarchaeal assemblages, given the highly dynamic nature of the Bay waters with seasonal upwelling episodes and the associated steep gradients in environmental variables. In the present study, we examined thaumarchaeal population dynamics in the upper Monterey Bay water column (0-500 m) using multiple molecular markers. Following high-resolution spatiotemporal sampling (i.e., up to 10 depths sampled monthly over a period of 2 years) at two stations in the Bay, we quantified thaumarchaeal functional genes - the ammonia monooxygenase (amoA) gene and its `shallow' and `deep' marine ecotypes, and variants of the marine nitrite reductase (nirK) gene. The abundances of both genes were regressed against environmental variables to gain insights into factors shaping their spatiotemporal dynamics in the Bay. Gene abundances at both stations varied with depth and season, with winter months generally having several orders of magnitude greater abundances. Statistical analyses point to differential controls on the gene abundances, with depth and temperature potentially being the major environmental determinants of thaumarchaeal population size. Our results also highlight the importance of employing multiple marker genes to gain a more highly resolved picture of thaumarchaeal population dynamics in complex environmental systems such as the coastal ocean.

Probability bounds analysis for nonlinear population ecology models.

PubMed

Enszer, Joshua A; Andrei Măceș, D; Stadtherr, Mark A

2015-09-01

Mathematical models in population ecology often involve parameters that are empirically determined and inherently uncertain, with probability distributions for the uncertainties not known precisely. Propagating such imprecise uncertainties rigorously through a model to determine their effect on model outputs can be a challenging problem. We illustrate here a method for the direct propagation of uncertainties represented by probability bounds though nonlinear, continuous-time, dynamic models in population ecology. This makes it possible to determine rigorous bounds on the probability that some specified outcome for a population is achieved, which can be a core problem in ecosystem modeling for risk assessment and management. Results can be obtained at a computational cost that is considerably less than that required by statistical sampling methods such as Monte Carlo analysis. The method is demonstrated using three example systems, with focus on a model of an experimental aquatic food web subject to the effects of contamination by ionic liquids, a new class of potentially important industrial chemicals. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Evolutionary dynamics of populations with conflicting interactions: Classification and analytical treatment considering asymmetry and power

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helbing, Dirk; Johansson, Anders

2010-01-01

Evolutionary game theory has been successfully used to investigate the dynamics of systems, in which many entities have competitive interactions. From a physics point of view, it is interesting to study conditions under which a coordination or cooperation of interacting entities will occur, be it spins, particles, bacteria, animals, or humans. Here, we analyze the case, where the entities are heterogeneous, particularly the case of two populations with conflicting interactions and two possible states. For such systems, explicit mathematical formulas will be determined for the stationary solutions and the associated eigenvalues, which determine their stability. In this way, four different types of system dynamics can be classified and the various kinds of phase transitions between them will be discussed. While these results are interesting from a physics point of view, they are also relevant for social, economic, and biological systems, as they allow one to understand conditions for (1) the breakdown of cooperation, (2) the coexistence of different behaviors (“subcultures”), (3) the evolution of commonly shared behaviors (“norms”), and (4) the occurrence of polarization or conflict. We point out that norms have a similar function in social systems that forces have in physics.

The Effects of Predator Evolution and Genetic Variation on Predator-Prey Population-Level Dynamics.

PubMed

Cortez, Michael H; Patel, Swati

2017-07-01

This paper explores how predator evolution and the magnitude of predator genetic variation alter the population-level dynamics of predator-prey systems. We do this by analyzing a general eco-evolutionary predator-prey model using four methods: Method 1 identifies how eco-evolutionary feedbacks alter system stability in the fast and slow evolution limits; Method 2 identifies how the amount of standing predator genetic variation alters system stability; Method 3 identifies how the phase lags in predator-prey cycles depend on the amount of genetic variation; and Method 4 determines conditions for different cycle shapes in the fast and slow evolution limits using geometric singular perturbation theory. With these four methods, we identify the conditions under which predator evolution alters system stability and shapes of predator-prey cycles, and how those effect depend on the amount of genetic variation in the predator population. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each method and the relations between the four methods. This work shows how the four methods can be used in tandem to make general predictions about eco-evolutionary dynamics and feedbacks.

Apparent Activation Energies Associated with Protein Dynamics on Hydrophobic and Hydrophilic Surfaces

PubMed Central

Langdon, Blake B.; Kastantin, Mark; Schwartz, Daniel K.

2012-01-01

With the use of single-molecule total internal reflection fluorescence microscopy (TIRFM), the dynamics of bovine serum albumin (BSA) and human fibrinogen (Fg) at low concentrations were observed at the solid-aqueous interface as a function of temperature on hydrophobic trimethylsilane (TMS) and hydrophilic fused silica (FS) surfaces. Multiple dynamic modes and populations were observed and characterized by their surface residence times and squared-displacement distributions (surface diffusion). Characteristic desorption and diffusion rates for each population/mode were generally found to increase with temperature, and apparent activation energies were determined from Arrhenius analyses. The apparent activation energies of desorption and diffusion were typically higher on FS than on TMS surfaces, suggesting that protein desorption and mobility were hindered on hydrophilic surfaces due to favorable protein-surface and solvent-surface interactions. The diffusion of BSA on TMS appeared to be activationless for several populations, whereas diffusion on FS always exhibited an apparent activation energy. All activation energies were small in absolute terms (generally only a few kBT), suggesting that most adsorbed protein molecules are weakly bound and move and desorb readily under ambient conditions. PMID:22713578

Population dynamics of weeds in oil palm (Elaeis guineensis Jacq.) circle weeding area affected by herbicide application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sidik, S.; Purba, E.; Yakub, E. N.

2018-02-01

Weed problems in oil palm field were mainly overcomed by herbicide application. The application certain herbicides may lead to rapid population dynamic of certain species due to their different response to herbicides. Some species may less susceptible to certain herbicide whereas other species more susceptible. The objective of this study was to determine the population dynamic of weed species in circle weeding of oil palm in Serdang Bedagai, North Sumatra. Six treatments using glyphosate singly and mixture compared with manual weeding were evaluated for weed control. The treatments were arranged in a randomized block design with four replicates. Each treatment consisted of four circle weedings. The results showed that glyphosate 720 g a.i/ha + indaziflam 50 g a.i/hareduced seedbank and regrowth of weeds. Up to 12 weeks after application glyphosate 720 g a.i/ha + indaziflam 50 g a.i/ha is 29.46% total weeds dry weight compared to manual weeding. The effect of herbicide application on changes on the weed composition and weed seedbank are affected by the characteristic of herbicides and weed response to herbicide application.

The impact of parasitoid emergence time on host-parasitoid population dynamics.

PubMed

Cobbold, Christina A; Roland, Jens; Lewis, Mark A

2009-01-01

We investigate the effect of parasitoid phenology on host-parasitoid population cycles. Recent experimental research has shown that parasitized hosts can continue to interact with their unparasitized counterparts through competition. Parasitoid phenology, in particular the timing of emergence from the host, determines the duration of this competition. We construct a discrete-time host-parasitoid model in which within-generation dynamics associated with parasitoid timing is explicitly incorporated. We found that late-emerging parasitoids induce less severe, but more frequent, host outbreaks, independent of the choice of competition model. The competition experienced by the parasitized host reduces the parasitoids' numerical response to changes in host numbers, preventing the 'boom-bust' dynamics associated with more efficient parasitoids. We tested our findings against experimental data for the forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria Hübner) system, where a large number of consecutive years at a high host density is synonymous with severe forest damage.

The dynamics of health in wild field vole populations: a haematological perspective

PubMed Central

Beldomenico, Pablo M.; Telfer, Sandra; Gebert, Stephanie; Lukomski, Lukasz; Bennett, Malcolm; Begon, Michael

2010-01-01

Summary Pathogens have been proposed as potentially important drivers of population dynamics, but while a few studies have investigated the impact of specific pathogens, the wealth of information provided by general indices of health has hardly been exploited. By evaluating haematological parameters in wild populations, our knowledge of the dynamics of health and infection may be better understood. Here, haematological dynamics in natural populations of field voles are investigated to determine environmental and host factors associated with indicators of inflammatory response (counts of monocytes and neutrophils) and of condition: measures of immunological investment (lymphocyte counts) and aerobic capacity (red blood cell counts). Individuals from three field vole populations were sampled monthly for 2 years. Comparisons with individuals kept under controlled conditions facilitated interpretation of field data. Mixed effects models were developed for each cell type to evaluate separately the effects of various factors on post-juvenile voles and mature breeding females. There were three well-characterized ‘physiological’ seasons. The immunological investment appeared lowest in winter (lowest lymphocyte counts), but red blood cells were at their highest levels and indices of inflammatory response at their lowest. Spring was characterized by a fall in red blood cell counts and peaks in indicators of inflammatory response. During the course of summer—autumn, red blood cell counts recovered, the immunological investment increased and the indicators of inflammatory response decreased. Poor body condition appeared to affect the inflammatory response (lower neutrophil and monocyte peaks) and the immunological investment (lower lymphocyte counts), providing evidence that the capacity to fight infection is dependent upon host condition. Breeding early in the year was most likely in females in better condition (high lymphocyte and red blood cell counts). All the haematological parameters were affected adversely by high population densities. PMID:18564292

Ecosystem scale declines in elk recruitment and population growth with wolf colonization: a before-after-control-impact approach.

PubMed

Christianson, David; Creel, Scott

2014-01-01

The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk--Cervus elaphus) in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves.

Multiphase Modelling of Bacteria Removal in a CSO Stream

EPA Science Inventory

Indicator bacteria are an important determinant of water quality in many water resources management situations. They are also one of the more complex phenomena to model and predict. Sources abound, the populations are dynamic and influenced by many factors, and mobility through...

The Hubble Space Telescope UV Legacy Survey of Galactic Globular Clusters. XV. The Dynamical Clock: Reading Cluster Dynamical Evolution from the Segregation Level of Blue Straggler Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferraro, F. R.; Lanzoni, B.; Raso, S.; Nardiello, D.; Dalessandro, E.; Vesperini, E.; Piotto, G.; Pallanca, C.; Beccari, G.; Bellini, A.; Libralato, M.; Anderson, J.; Aparicio, A.; Bedin, L. R.; Cassisi, S.; Milone, A. P.; Ortolani, S.; Renzini, A.; Salaris, M.; van der Marel, R. P.

2018-06-01

The parameter A +, defined as the area enclosed between the cumulative radial distribution of blue straggler stars (BSSs) and that of a reference population, is a powerful indicator of the level of BSS central segregation. As part of the Hubble Space Telescope UV Legacy Survey of Galactic globular clusters (GCs), here we present the BSS population and the determination of A + in 27 GCs observed out to about one half-mass radius. In combination with 21 additional clusters discussed in a previous paper, this provides us with a global sample of 48 systems (corresponding to ∼32% of the Milky Way GC population), for which we find a strong correlation between A + and the ratio of cluster age to the current central relaxation time. Tight relations have also been found with the core radius and the central luminosity density, which are expected to change with the long-term cluster dynamical evolution. An interesting relation is emerging between A + and the ratio of the BSS velocity dispersion relative to that of main sequence turn-off stars, which measures the degree of energy equipartition experienced by BSSs in the cluster. These results provide further confirmation that BSSs are invaluable probes of GC internal dynamics and that A + is a powerful dynamical clock.

Population size effects in evolutionary dynamics on neutral networks and toy landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumedha; Martin, Olivier C.; Peliti, Luca

2007-05-01

We study the dynamics of a population subject to selective pressures, evolving either on RNA neutral networks or on toy fitness landscapes. We discuss the spread and the neutrality of the population in the steady state. Different limits arise depending on whether selection or random drift is dominant. In the presence of strong drift we show that the observables depend mainly on Mμ, M being the population size and μ the mutation rate, while corrections to this scaling go as 1/M: such corrections can be quite large in the presence of selection if there are barriers in the fitness landscape. Also we find that the convergence to the large-Mμ limit is linear in 1/Mμ. Finally we introduce a protocol that minimizes drift; then observables scale like 1/M rather than 1/(Mμ), allowing one to determine the large-M limit more quickly when μ is small; furthermore the genotypic diversity increases from O(lnM) to O(M).

Transmission of biology and culture among post-contact Native Americans on the western Great Plains.

PubMed

Lycett, Stephen J; von Cramon-Taubadel, Noreen

2016-08-12

The transmission of genes and culture between human populations has major implications for understanding potential correlations between history, biological, and cultural variation. Understanding such dynamics in 19th century, post-contact Native Americans on the western Great Plains is especially challenging given passage of time, complexity of known dynamics, and difficulties of determining genetic patterns in historical populations for whom, even today, genetic data for their descendants are rare. Here, biometric data collected under the direction of Franz Boas from communities penecontemporaneous with the classic bison-hunting societies, were used as a proxy for genetic variation and analyzed together with cultural data. We show that both gene flow and "culture flow" among populations on the High Plains were mediated by geography, fitting a model of isolation-by-distance. Moreover, demographic and cultural exchange among these communities largely overrode the visible signal of the prior millennia of cultural and genetic histories of these populations.

A cognitive-consistency based model of population wide attitude change.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lakkaraju, Kiran; Speed, Ann Elizabeth

Attitudes play a significant role in determining how individuals process information and behave. In this paper we have developed a new computational model of population wide attitude change that captures the social level: how individuals interact and communicate information, and the cognitive level: how attitudes and concept interact with each other. The model captures the cognitive aspect by representing each individuals as a parallel constraint satisfaction network. The dynamics of this model are explored through a simple attitude change experiment where we vary the social network and distribution of attitudes in a population.

Strong solutions and instability for the fitness gradient system in evolutionary games between two populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Qiuju; Belmonte, Andrew; deForest, Russ; Liu, Chun; Tan, Zhong

2017-04-01

In this paper, we study a fitness gradient system for two populations interacting via a symmetric game. The population dynamics are governed by a conservation law, with a spatial migration flux determined by the fitness. By applying the Galerkin method, we establish the existence, regularity and uniqueness of global solutions to an approximate system, which retains most of the interesting mathematical properties of the original fitness gradient system. Furthermore, we show that a Turing instability occurs for equilibrium states of the fitness gradient system, and its approximations.

The Relationship between Host Lifespan and Pathogen Reservoir Potential: An Analysis in the System Arabidopsis thaliana-Cucumber mosaic virus

PubMed Central

Hily, Jean Michel; García, Adrián; Moreno, Arancha; Plaza, María; Wilkinson, Mark D.; Fereres, Alberto; Fraile, Aurora; García-Arenal, Fernando

2014-01-01

Identification of the determinants of pathogen reservoir potential is central to understand disease emergence. It has been proposed that host lifespan is one such determinant: short-lived hosts will invest less in costly defenses against pathogens, so that they will be more susceptible to infection, more competent as sources of infection and/or will sustain larger vector populations, thus being effective reservoirs for the infection of long-lived hosts. This hypothesis is sustained by analyses of different hosts of multihost pathogens, but not of different genotypes of the same host species. Here we examined this hypothesis by comparing two genotypes of the plant Arabidopsis thaliana that differ largely both in life-span and in tolerance to its natural pathogen Cucumber mosaic virus (CMV). Experiments with the aphid vector Myzus persicae showed that both genotypes were similarly competent as sources for virus transmission, but the short-lived genotype was more susceptible to infection and was able to sustain larger vector populations. To explore how differences in defense against CMV and its vector relate to reservoir potential, we developed a model that was run for a set of experimentally-determined parameters, and for a realistic range of host plant and vector population densities. Model simulations showed that the less efficient defenses of the short-lived genotype resulted in higher reservoir potential, which in heterogeneous host populations may be balanced by the longer infectious period of the long-lived genotype. This balance was modulated by the demography of both host and vector populations, and by the genetic composition of the host population. Thus, within-species genetic diversity for lifespan and defenses against pathogens will result in polymorphisms for pathogen reservoir potential, which will condition within-population infection dynamics. These results are relevant for a better understanding of host-pathogen co-evolution, and of the dynamics of pathogen emergence. PMID:25375140

Invasion of cooperators in lattice populations: linear and non-linear public good games.

PubMed

Vásárhelyi, Zsóka; Scheuring, István

2013-08-01

A generalized version of the N-person volunteer's dilemma (NVD) Game has been suggested recently for illustrating the problem of N-person social dilemmas. Using standard replicator dynamics it can be shown that coexistence of cooperators and defectors is typical in this model. However, the question of how a rare mutant cooperator could invade a population of defectors is still open. Here we examined the dynamics of individual based stochastic models of the NVD. We analyze the dynamics in well-mixed and viscous populations. We show in both cases that coexistence between cooperators and defectors is possible; moreover, spatial aggregation of types in viscous populations can easily lead to pure cooperation. Furthermore we analyze the invasion of cooperators in populations consisting predominantly of defectors. In accordance with analytical results, in deterministic systems, we found the invasion of cooperators successful in the well-mixed case only if their initial concentration was higher than a critical threshold, defined by the replicator dynamics of the NVD. In the viscous case, however, not the initial concentration but the initial number determines the success of invasion. We show that even a single mutant cooperator can invade with a high probability, because the local density of aggregated cooperators exceeds the threshold defined by the game. Comparing the results to models using different benefit functions (linear or sigmoid), we show that the role of the benefit function is much more important in the well-mixed than in the viscous case. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A high-resolution genetic signature of demographic and spatial expansion in epizootic rabies virus

PubMed Central

Biek, Roman; Henderson, J. Caroline; Waller, Lance A.; Rupprecht, Charles E.; Real, Leslie A.

2007-01-01

Emerging pathogens potentially undergo rapid evolution while expanding in population size and geographic range during the course of invasion, yet it is generally difficult to demonstrate how these processes interact. Our analysis of a 30-yr data set covering a large-scale rabies virus outbreak among North American raccoons reveals the long lasting effect of the initial infection wave in determining how viral populations are genetically structured in space. We further find that coalescent-based estimates derived from the genetic data yielded an amazingly accurate reconstruction of the known spatial and demographic dynamics of the virus over time. Our study demonstrates the combined evolutionary and population dynamic processes characterizing the spread of pathogen after its introduction into a fully susceptible host population. Furthermore, the results provide important insights regarding the spatial scale of rabies persistence and validate the use of coalescent approaches for uncovering even relatively complex population histories. Such approaches will be of increasing relevance for understanding the epidemiology of emerging zoonotic diseases in a landscape context. PMID:17470818

Using multiple metrics to assess the effects of forest succession on population status: a comparative study of two terrestrial salamanders in the US Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Hart Welsh; Karen L. Pope; Clara A. Wheeler

2008-01-01

Investigations to determine stable or source-sink animal population dynamics are challenging and often infeasible for most species due to the time and expense of mark-recapture studies and the challenge of life histories attributes that result in low detectability and low recapture probabilities. Often, managers rely solely on occupancy or relative abundance patterns...

Population Dynamics of Staphylococcus aureus in Cystic Fibrosis Patients To Determine Transmission Events by Use of Whole-Genome Sequencing

PubMed Central

Hall, Barry G.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Strict infection control practices have been implemented for health care visits by cystic fibrosis (CF) patients in an attempt to prevent transmission of important pathogens. This study used whole-genome sequencing (WGS) to determine strain relatedness and assess population dynamics of Staphylococcus aureus isolates from a cohort of CF patients as assessed by strain relatedness. A total of 311 S. aureus isolates were collected from respiratory cultures of 115 CF patients during a 22-month study period. Whole-genome sequencing was performed, and using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) analysis, phylogenetic trees were assembled to determine relatedness between isolates. Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) phenotypes were predicted using PPFS2 and compared to the observed phenotype. The accumulation of SNPs in multiple isolates obtained over time from the same patient was examined to determine if a genomic molecular clock could be calculated. Pairs of isolates with ≤71 SNP differences were considered to be the “same” strain. All of the “same” strain isolates were either from the same patient or siblings pairs. There were 47 examples of patients being superinfected with an unrelated strain. The predicted MRSA phenotype was accurate in all but three isolates. Mutation rates were unable to be determined because the branching order in the phylogenetic tree was inconsistent with the order of isolation. The observation that transmissions were identified between sibling patients shows that WGS is an effective tool for determining transmission between patients. The observation that transmission only occurred between siblings suggests that Staphylococcus aureus acquisition in our CF population occurred outside the hospital environment and indicates that current infection prevention efforts appear effective. PMID:28446577

Heat exposure in cities: combining the dynamics of temperature and population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, L.; Wilhelmi, O.; Uejio, C. K.

2017-12-01

Assessment of human exposure to extreme heat requires the distributions of temperature and population. However, both variables are dynamic, thus presenting many challenges in capturing temperature and population patterns spatially and over time in an urban context. This study aims to improve the understanding of spatiotemporal patterns of urban population exposure to heat, taking Chicago, USA as an example. We estimate the hourly, geographically variable, population distribution considering commute of workers and students in a regular weekday and analyze the diurnal air temperature patterns during different meteorological conditions from satellite observations. The results show a relatively larger temperature increase in less urbanized areas during extreme heat events (EHEs), resulting in a spatially homogeneous temperature distribution over Chicago Metropolitan area. A lake cooling effect is weaker during EHEs. Population dynamics due to daily commute determine higher population density in more urbanized areas during daytime. The city-wide analysis reveals that the exposure is more sensitive to the nighttime temperature increases, and EHEs enhance this sensitivity. The high exposure hotspots are identified at the northwest Chicago, Cicero and Oak Park areas, where the influence from Lake Michigan is weakened, while the spatial extent of high outdoor exposure areas varies diurnally. This study's findings have potential to better inform general heat mitigation strategies during hot summer months and facilitate emergency response during EHEs. Availability of remotely-sensed temperature observations as well as the workers and students commute-adjusted population data allows for the adoption of this study's methodology in other major metropolitan areas. A better understanding of space-time patterns of urban population's exposure to heat will further enable local decision makers to mitigate extreme heat health risks and develop more targeted heat preparedness and response strategies.

A framework for estimating the determinants of spatial and temporal variation in vital rates and inferring the occurrence of unobserved extreme events

PubMed Central

Jesenšek, Dušan; Crivelli, Alain J.

2018-01-01

We develop a general framework that combines long-term tag–recapture data and powerful statistical and modelling techniques to investigate how population, environmental and climate factors determine variation in vital rates and population dynamics in an animal species, using as a case study the population of brown trout living in Upper Volaja (Western Slovenia). This population has been monitored since 2004. Upper Volaja is a sink, receiving individuals from a source population living above a waterfall. We estimate the numerical contribution of the source population on the sink population and test the effects of temperature, population density and extreme events on variation in vital rates among 2647 individually tagged brown trout. We found that individuals dispersing downstream from the source population help maintain high population densities in the sink population despite poor recruitment. The best model of survival for individuals older than juveniles includes additive effects of birth cohort and sampling occasion. Fast growth of older cohorts and higher population densities in 2004–2005 suggest very low population densities in the late 1990s, which we hypothesize were caused by a flash flood that strongly reduced population size and created the habitat conditions for faster individual growth and transient higher population densities after the extreme event. PMID:29657746

A framework for estimating the determinants of spatial and temporal variation in vital rates and inferring the occurrence of unobserved extreme events.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone; Jesenšek, Dušan; Crivelli, Alain J

2018-03-01

We develop a general framework that combines long-term tag-recapture data and powerful statistical and modelling techniques to investigate how population, environmental and climate factors determine variation in vital rates and population dynamics in an animal species, using as a case study the population of brown trout living in Upper Volaja (Western Slovenia). This population has been monitored since 2004. Upper Volaja is a sink, receiving individuals from a source population living above a waterfall. We estimate the numerical contribution of the source population on the sink population and test the effects of temperature, population density and extreme events on variation in vital rates among 2647 individually tagged brown trout. We found that individuals dispersing downstream from the source population help maintain high population densities in the sink population despite poor recruitment. The best model of survival for individuals older than juveniles includes additive effects of birth cohort and sampling occasion. Fast growth of older cohorts and higher population densities in 2004-2005 suggest very low population densities in the late 1990s, which we hypothesize were caused by a flash flood that strongly reduced population size and created the habitat conditions for faster individual growth and transient higher population densities after the extreme event.

[Gypsy moth Lymantria dispar L. in the South Urals: Patterns in population dynamics and modelling].

PubMed

Soukhovolsky, V G; Ponomarev, V I; Sokolov, G I; Tarasova, O V; Krasnoperova, P A

2015-01-01

The analysis is conducted on population dynamics of gypsy moth from different habitats of the South Urals. The pattern of cyclic changes in population density is examined, the assessment of temporal conjugation in time series of gypsy moth population dynamics from separate habitats of the South Urals is carried out, the relationships between population density and weather conditions are studied. Based on the results obtained, a statistical model of gypsy moth population dynamics in the South Urals is designed, and estimations are given of regulatory and modifying factors effects on the population dynamics.

A representative survey of the dynamics and energetics of FR II radio galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ineson, J.; Croston, J. H.; Hardcastle, M. J.; Mingo, B.

2017-05-01

We report the first large, systematic study of the dynamics and energetics of a representative sample of Fanaroff-Riley type II (FR II) radio galaxies with well-characterized group/cluster environments. We used X-ray inverse-Compton and radio synchrotron measurements to determine the internal radio-lobe conditions, and these were compared with external pressures acting on the lobes, determined from measurements of the thermal X-ray emission of the group/cluster. Consistent with previous work, we found that FR II radio lobes are typically electron dominated by a small factor relative to equipartition, and are overpressured relative to the external medium in their outer parts. These results suggest that there is typically no energetically significant proton population in the lobes of FR II radio galaxies (unlike for FR Is), and so for this population, inverse-Compton modelling provides an accurate way of measuring total energy content and estimating jet power. We estimated the distribution of Mach numbers for the population of expanding radio lobes, finding that at least half of the radio galaxies are currently driving strong shocks into their group/cluster environments. Finally, we determined a jet power-radio luminosity relation for FR II radio galaxies based on our estimates of lobe internal energy and Mach number. The slope and normalization of this relation are consistent with theoretical expectations, given the departure from equipartition and environmental distribution for our sample.

Excited-state absorption and fluorescence dynamics of Er3+:KY3F10

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labbé, C.; Doualan, J. L.; Moncorgé, R.; Braud, A.; Camy, P.

2018-05-01

We report here on a complete investigation of the excited-state absorption and fluorescence dynamics of Er3+ doped KY3F10 single crystals versus dopant concentrations and optical excitation conditions. Radiative and effective (including non-radiative relaxations) emission lifetimes and branching ratios are determined from a Judd-Ofelt analysis of the absorption spectra and via specific fluorescence experiments using wavelength selective laser excitations. Excited-state absorption and emission spectra are registered within seven spectral domains, i.e. 560 nm, 650 nm, 710 nm, 810 nm, 970 nm, 1550 nm and 2750 nm. A maximum gain cross-section of 0.93 × 10-21 cm2 is determined at the potential laser wavelength of 2.801 μm for a population ratio of 0.48. Saturation of fluorescence intensities and variations of population ratios versus pumping rates are registered and confronted with a rate equation model to derive the rates of the most important up-conversion and cross-relaxation energy transfers occurring at high dopant concentrations.

Diploid male dynamics under different numbers of sexual alleles and male dispersal abilities.

PubMed

Faria, Luiz R R; Soares, Elaine Della Giustina; Carmo, Eduardo do; Oliveira, Paulo Murilo Castro de

2016-09-01

Insects in the order Hymenoptera (bees, wasps and ants) present an haplodiploid system of sexual determination in which fertilized eggs become females and unfertilized eggs males. Under single locus complementary sex-determination (sl-CSD) system, the sex of a specimen depends on the alleles at a single locus: when diploid, an individual will be a female if heterozygous and male if homozygous. Significant diploid male (DM) production may drive a population to an extinction scenario called "diploid male vortex". We aimed at studying the dynamics of populations of a sl-CSD organism under several combinations of two parameters: male flight abilities and number of sexual alleles. In these simulations, we evaluated the frequency of DM and a genetic diversity measure over 10,000 generations. The number of sexual alleles varied from 10 to 100 and, at each generation, a male offspring might fly to another random site within a varying radius R. Two main results emerge from our simulations: (i) the number of DM depends more on male flight radius than on the number of alleles; (ii) in large geographic regions, the effect of males flight radius on the allelic diversity turns out much less pronounced than in small regions. In other words, small regions where inbreeding normally appears recover genetic diversity due to large flight radii. These results may be particularly relevant when considering the population dynamics of species with increasingly limited dispersal ability (e.g., forest-dependent species of euglossine bees in fragmented landscapes).

Turnover of Village Chickens Undermines Vaccine Coverage to Control HPAI H5N1.

PubMed

Villanueva-Cabezas, J P; Campbell, P T; McCaw, J M; Durr, P A; McVernon, J

2017-02-01

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 remains an enzootic disease of village chickens in Indonesia, posing ongoing risk at the animal-human interface. Previous modelling showed that the fast natural turnover of chicken populations might undermine herd immunity after vaccination, although actual details of how this effect applies to Indonesia's village chicken population have not been determined. We explored the turnover effect in Indonesia's scavenging and mixed populations of village chickens using an extended Leslie matrix model parameterized with data collected from village chicken flocks in Java region, Indonesia. Population dynamics were simulated for 208 weeks; the turnover effect was simulated for 16 weeks after vaccination in two 'best case' scenarios, where the whole population (scenario 1), or birds aged over 14 days (scenario 2), were vaccinated. We found that the scavenging and mixed populations have different productive traits. When steady-state dynamics are reached, both populations are dominated by females (54.5%), and 'growers' and 'chicks' represent the most abundant age stages with 39% and 38% in the scavenging, and 60% and 25% in the mixed population, respectively. Simulations showed that the population turnover might reduce the herd immunity below the critical threshold that prevents the re-emergence of HPAI H5N1 4-8 weeks (scavenging) and 6-9 weeks (mixed population) after vaccination in scenario 1, and 2-6 weeks (scavenging) and 4-7 weeks (mixed population) after vaccination in scenario 2. In conclusion, we found that Indonesia's village chicken population does not have a unique underlying population dynamic and therefore, different turnover effects on herd immunity may be expected after vaccination; nonetheless, our simulations carried out in best case scenarios highlight the limitations of current vaccine technologies to control HPAI H5N1. This suggests that the improvements and complementary strategies are necessary and must be explored. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Nutrition, fertility and steady-state population dynamics in a pre-industrial community in Penrith, northern England.

PubMed

Scott, S; Duncan, C J

1999-10-01

The effect of nutrition on fertility and its contribution thereby to population dynamics are assessed in three social groups (elite, tradesmen and subsistence) in a marginal, pre-industrial population in northern England. This community was particularly susceptible to fluctuations in the price of grains, which formed their basic foodstuff. The subsistence class, who formed the largest part of the population, had low levels of fertility and small family sizes, but women from all social groups had a characteristic and marked subfecundity in the early part of their reproductive lives. The health and nutrition of the mother during pregnancy was the most important factor in determining fertility and neonatal mortality. Inadequate nutrition had many subtle effects on reproduction which interacted to produce a complex web of events. A population boom occurred during the second half of the 18th century; fertility did not change but there was a marked improvement in infant mortality and it is suggested that the steadily improving nutritional standards of the population, particularly during crucial periods in pregnancy (i.e. the last trimester), probably made the biggest contribution to the improvement in infant mortality and so was probably the major factor in triggering the boom.

The Radial Distribution of Mono-metallicity Populations in the Galactic Disk as Evidence for Two-phase Disk Formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domínguez-Tenreiro, R.; Obreja, A.; Brook, C. B.; Martínez-Serrano, F. J.; Serna, A.

2017-09-01

Recent determinations of the radial distributions of mono-metallicity populations (MMPs, I.e., stars in narrow bins in [Fe/H] within wider [α/Fe] ranges) by the SDSS-III/APOGEE DR12 survey cast doubts on the classical thin- and thick-disk dichotomy. The analysis of these observations led to the non-[α /Fe] enhanced populations splitting into MMPs with different surface densities according to their [Fe/H]. By contrast, [α /Fe] enhanced (I.e., old) populations show a homogeneous behavior. We analyze these results in the wider context of disk formation within non-isolated halos embedded in the Cosmic Web, resulting in a two-phase mass assembly. By performing hydrodynamical simulations in the context of the ΛCDM model, we have found that the two phases of halo mass assembly (an early fast phase, followed by a slow phase with low mass-assembly rates) are very relevant to determine the radial structure of MMP distributions, while radial mixing only plays a secondary role, depending on the coeval dynamical and/or destabilizing events. Indeed, while the frequent dynamical violent events occuring at high redshift remove metallicity gradients and imply efficient stellar mixing, the relatively quiescent dynamics after the transition keeps [Fe/H] gaseous gradients and prevents newly formed stars from suffering strong radial mixing. By linking the two-component disk concept with the two-phase halo mass-assembly scenario, our results set halo virialization (the event marking the transition from the fast to the slow phases) as the separating event that marks periods that are characterized by different physical conditions under which thick- and thin-disk stars were born.

Dynamics of Huanglongbing-associated Bacterium Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus in Citrus aurantifolia Swingle (Mexican Lime).

PubMed

Abel Lopez-Buenfil, Jose; Abrahan Ramirez-Pool, Jose; Ruiz-Medrano, Roberto; Del Carmen Montes-Horcasitas, Maria; Chavarin-Palacio, Claudio; Moya-Hinojosa, Jesus; Javier Trujillo-Arriaga, Francisco; Carmona, Rosalia Lira; Xoconostle-Cazares, Beatriz

2017-01-01

The bacterial disease citrus huanglongbing (HLB), associated with "Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus" (C.Las) has severely impacted the citrus industry, causing a significant reduction in production and fruit quality. In the present study, it was monitored the C.Las population dynamics in symptomatic, HLB-positive Mexican lime trees (Citrus aurantifolia Swingle) in a tropical, citrus-producing area of Mexico. The objective of this study was to identify the dynamics of the population of huanglongbing-associated bacterium Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus and its insect vector in Citrus aurantifolia Swingle (Mexican lime). Leaf samples were collected every 2 months over a period of 26 months for quantification of bacterial titers and young and mature leaves were collected in each season to determine preferential sites of bacterial accumulation. The proportion of living and dead bacterial cells could be determined through the use of quantitative real-time PCR in the presence of ethidium monoazide (EMA-qPCR). It was observed a lower bacterial titer at high temperatures in the infected trees relative to titers in mild weather, despite a higher accumulation of the insect vector Diaphorina citri in these conditions. This study also revealed seasonal fluctuations in the titers of bacteria in mature leaves when compared to young leaves. No statistically significant correlation between any meteorological variable, C.Las concentration and D. citri population could be drawn. Although, HLB management strategies have focused on vector control, host tree phenology may be important. The evaluation of citrus phenology, C.Las concentration, ACP population and environmental conditions provides insights into the cyclical, seasonal variations of both the HLB pathogen and its vector. These findings should help in the design of integrative HLB control strategies that take into account the accumulation of the pathogen and the presence of its vector.

Effects of Mitigative Measures on Productivity of White Sturgeon Populations in the Columbia River Downstream from McNary Dam; Determine Status and Habitat Requirements of White Sturgeon Populations in the Columbia and Snake Rivers Upstream from the McNary Dam, 1994-1995 Annual Report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beiningen, Kirk T.

The author reports on progress from April 1994 through March 1995 of research on white sturgeon in the lower Columbia River. The study began in July 1986 and is a cooperative effort of federal, state and tribal fisheries entities to determine the (1) the status and habitat requirements, and (2) the effects of mitigative measures on productivity of white sturgeon populations in the lower Columbia River. This report describes activities conducted during the third year of this contract's second phase. Information was collected, analyzed, and evaluated on sub-adult and adult life histories, population dynamics, quantity and quality of habitat, andmore » production enhancement strategies. The report is divided into sections that evaluate success of developing and implementing a management plan for white sturgeon; evaluate growth, mortality, and contributions to fisheries of juvenile white sturgeon transplanted from areas downstream; describe the life history and population dynamics of sub-adult a nd adult white sturgeon; define habitat requirements for spawning and rearing of white sturgeon and quantify the extent of habitat available; describe reproductive and early life history characteristics of white sturgeon; and quantify physical habitat used by spawning and rearing white sturgeon in the free-flowing portion of the Columbia River.« less

Antagonistic interactions are sufficient to explain self-assemblage of bacterial communities in a homogeneous environment: a computational modeling approach

PubMed Central

Zapién-Campos, Román; Olmedo-Álvarez, Gabriela; Santillán, Moisés

2015-01-01

Most of the studies in Ecology have been devoted to analyzing the effects the environment has on individuals, populations, and communities, thus neglecting the effects of biotic interactions on the system dynamics. In the present work we study the structure of bacterial communities in the oligotrophic shallow water system of Churince, Cuatro Cienegas, Mexico. Since the physicochemical conditions of this water system are homogeneous and quite stable in time, it is an excellent candidate to study how biotic factors influence the structure of bacterial communities. In a previous study, the binary antagonistic interactions of 78 bacterial strains, isolated from Churince, were experimentally determined. We employ these data to develop a computer algorithm to simulate growth experiments in a cellular grid representing the pond. Remarkably, in our model, the dynamics of all the simulated bacterial populations is determined solely by antagonistic interactions. Our results indicate that all bacterial strains (even those that are antagonized by many other bacteria) survive in the long term, and that the underlying mechanism is the formation of bacterial community patches. Patches corresponding to less antagonistic and highly susceptible strains are consistently isolated from the highly-antagonistic bacterial colonies by patches of neutral strains. These results concur with the observed features of the bacterial community structure previously reported. Finally, we study how our findings depend on factors like initial population size, differential population growth rates, homogeneous population death rates, and enhanced bacterial diffusion. PMID:26052318

Temporal variation in temperature determines disease spread and maintenance in Paramecium microcosm populations

PubMed Central

Duncan, Alison B.; Fellous, Simon; Kaltz, Oliver

2011-01-01

The environment is rarely constant and organisms are exposed to temporal and spatial variations that impact their life histories and inter-species interactions. It is important to understand how such variations affect epidemiological dynamics in host–parasite systems. We explored effects of temporal variation in temperature on experimental microcosm populations of the ciliate Paramecium caudatum and its bacterial parasite Holospora undulata. Infected and uninfected populations of two P. caudatum genotypes were created and four constant temperature treatments (26°C, 28°C, 30°C and 32°C) compared with four variable treatments with the same mean temperatures. Variable temperature treatments were achieved by alternating populations between permissive (23°C) and restrictive (35°C) conditions daily over 30 days. Variable conditions and high temperatures caused greater declines in Paramecium populations, greater fluctuations in population size and higher incidence of extinction. The additional effect of parasite infection was additive and enhanced the negative effects of the variable environment and higher temperatures by up to 50 per cent. The variable environment and high temperatures also caused a decrease in parasite prevalence (up to 40%) and an increase in extinction (absence of detection) (up to 30%). The host genotypes responded similarly to the different environmental stresses and their effect on parasite traits were generally in the same direction. This work provides, to our knowledge, the first experimental demonstration that epidemiological dynamics are influenced by environmental variation. We also emphasize the need to consider environmental variance, as well as means, when trying to understand, or predict population dynamics or range. PMID:21450730

Comparison of reintroduction and enhancement effects on metapopulation viability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halsey, Samniqueka J; Bell, Timothy J.; McEachern, A. Kathryn; Pavlovic, Noel B.

2015-01-01

Metapopulation viability depends upon a balance of extinction and colonization of local habitats by a species. Mechanisms that can affect this balance include physical characteristics related to natural processes (e.g. succession) as well as anthropogenic actions. Plant restorations can help to produce favorable metapopulation dynamics and consequently increase viability; however, to date no studies confirm this is true. Population viability analysis (PVA) allows for the use of empirical data to generate theoretical future projections in the form of median time to extinction and probability of extinction. In turn, PVAs can inform and aid the development of conservation, recovery, and management plans. Pitcher's thistle (Cirsium pitcheri) is a dune endemic that exhibited metapopulation dynamics. We projected viability of three natural and two restored populations with demographic data spanning 15–23 years to determine the degree the addition of reintroduced population affects metapopulation viability. The models were validated by comparing observed and projected abundances and adjusting parameters associated with demographic and environmental stochasticity to improve model performance. Our chosen model correctly predicted yearly population abundance for 60% of the population-years. Using that model, 50-year projections showed that the addition of reintroductions increases metapopulation viability. The reintroduction that simulated population performance in early-successional habitats had the maximum benefit. In situ enhancements of existing populations proved to be equally effective. This study shows that restorations can facilitate and improve metapopulation viability of species dependent on metapopulation dynamics for survival with long-term persistence of C. pitcheri in Indiana likely to depend on continued active management.

Decreasing stochasticity through enhanced seasonality in measles epidemics.

PubMed

Mantilla-Beniers, N B; Bjørnstad, O N; Grenfell, B T; Rohani, P

2010-05-06

Seasonal changes in the environment are known to be important drivers of population dynamics, giving rise to sustained population cycles. However, it is often difficult to measure the strength and shape of seasonal forces affecting populations. In recent years, statistical time-series methods have been applied to the incidence records of childhood infectious diseases in an attempt to estimate seasonal variation in transmission rates, as driven by the pattern of school terms. In turn, school-term forcing was used to show how susceptible influx rates affect the interepidemic period. In this paper, we document the response of measles dynamics to distinct shifts in the parameter regime using previously unexplored records of measles mortality from the early decades of the twentieth century. We describe temporal patterns of measles epidemics using spectral analysis techniques, and point out a marked decrease in birth rates over time. Changes in host demography alone do not, however, suffice to explain epidemiological transitions. By fitting the time-series susceptible-infected-recovered model to measles mortality data, we obtain estimates of seasonal transmission in different eras, and find that seasonality increased over time. This analysis supports theoretical work linking complex population dynamics and the balance between stochastic and deterministic forces as determined by the strength of seasonality.

Trees Wanted—Dead or Alive! Host Selection and Population Dynamics in Tree-Killing Bark Beetles

PubMed Central

Kausrud, Kyrre L.; Grégoire, Jean-Claude; Skarpaas, Olav; Erbilgin, Nadir; Gilbert, Marius; Økland, Bjørn; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2011-01-01

Bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) feed and breed in dead or severely weakened host trees. When their population densities are high, some species aggregate on healthy host trees so that their defences may be exhausted and the inner bark successfully colonized, killing the tree in the process. Here we investigate under what conditions participating with unrelated conspecifics in risky mass attacks on living trees is an adaptive strategy, and what this can tell us about bark beetle outbreak dynamics. We find that the outcome of individual host selection may deviate from the ideal free distribution in a way that facilitates the emergence of tree-killing (aggressive) behavior, and that any heritability on traits governing aggressiveness seems likely to exist in a state of flux or cycles consistent with variability observed in natural populations. This may have implications for how economically and ecologically important species respond to environmental changes in climate and landscape (forest) structure. The population dynamics emerging from individual behavior are complex, capable of switching between “endemic” and “epidemic” regimes spontaneously or following changes in host availability or resistance. Model predictions are compared to empirical observations, and we identify some factors determining the occurrence and self-limitation of epidemics. PMID:21647433

Dynamics of initial colonization of nonconserved perennial ryegrass by anaerobic fungi in the bovine rumen.

PubMed

Edwards, Joan E; Kingston-Smith, Alison H; Jimenez, Hugo R; Huws, Sharon A; Skøt, Kirsten P; Griffith, Gareth W; McEwan, Neil R; Theodorou, Michael K

2008-12-01

Anaerobic fungi (Neocallimastigales) are active degraders of fibrous plant material in the rumen. However, only limited information is available relating to how quickly they colonize ingested feed particles. The aim of this study was to determine the dynamics of initial colonization of forage by anaerobic fungi in the rumen and the impact of different postsampling wash procedures used to remove loosely associated microorganisms. Neocallimastigales-specific molecular techniques were optimized to ensure maximal coverage before application to assess the population size (quantitative PCR) and composition (automated ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis) of the colonizing anaerobic fungi. Colonization of perennial ryegrass (PRG) was evident within 5 min, with no consistent effect of time or wash procedure on fungal population composition. Wash procedure had no effect on population size unlike time, which had a significant effect. Colonizing fungal population size continued to increase over the incubation period after an initial lag of c. 4 min. This dynamic differs from that reported previously for rumen bacteria, where substantial colonization of PRG occurred within 5 min. The observed delay in colonization of plant material by anaerobic fungi is suggested to be primarily mediated by the time taken for fungal zoospores to locate, attach and encyst on plant material.

Wild-captive interactions and economics drive dynamics of Asian elephants in Laos.

PubMed

Maurer, Gilles; Rashford, Benjamin S; Chanthavong, Vatsana; Mulot, Baptiste; Gimenez, Olivier

2017-11-01

The interactions between wild and captive populations of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) persist in most countries of the species distribution, notably through the reproduction between captive females and wild males. However, these complex interactions have been poorly studied, despite their relevance for conservation of this endangered species. Laos has a centuries-long tradition of raising Asian elephants. Besides being cultural icons, captive elephants are inextricably linked to economics through their work in forestry. Using an ecological-economic model, we investigated the effect of socio-economic strategies on fecundity of the Lao population whose dynamics is shaped by human practices. We demonstrated that fecundity is impacted by: i) the dynamics of the wild elephant pool through mating of captive females by wild males, and ii) the financial incentive of elephant owners to breed their animals. As a result, we expect fecundity to rise in response to increases in elephant prices. The captive population will tend towards an asymptotic limit determined by the wild pool growth rate. However, the population will tend to extinction if exports continue. Our ecological-economic approach, by accounting for economic incentives, allows us to predict new equilibria that can serve as a baseline for designing sustainable management strategies for the species.

Cell fate determination dynamics in bacteria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuchina, Anna; Espinar, Lorena; Cagatay, Tolga; Garcia-Ojalvo, Jordi; Suel, Gurol

2010-03-01

The fitness of an organism depends on many processes that serve the purpose to adapt to changing environment in a robust and coordinated fashion. One example of such process is cellular fate determination. In the presence of a variety of alternative responses each cell adopting a particular fate represents a ``choice'' that must be tightly regulated to ensure the best survival strategy for the population taking into account the broad range of possible environmental challenges. We investigated this problem in the model organism B.Subtilis which under stress conditions differentiates terminally into highly resistant spores or initiates an alternative transient state of competence. The dynamics underlying cell fate choice remains largely unknown. We utilize quantitative fluorescent microscopy to track the activities of genes involved in these responses on a single-cell level. We explored the importance of temporal interactions between competing cell fates by re- engineering the differentiation programs. I will discuss how the precise dynamics of cellular ``decision-making'' governed by the corresponding biological circuits may enable cells to adjust to diverse environments and determine survival.

Using a new high resolution regional model for malaria that accounts for population density and surface hydrology to determine sensitivity of malaria risk to climate drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tompkins, Adrian; Ermert, Volker; Di Giuseppe, Francesca

2013-04-01

In order to better address the role of population dynamics and surface hydrology in the assessment of malaria risk, a new dynamical disease model been developed at ICTP, known as VECTRI: VECtor borne disease community model of ICTP, TRIeste (VECTRI). The model accounts for the temperature impact on the larvae, parasite and adult vector populations. Local host population density affects the transmission intensity, and the model thus reproduces the differences between peri-urban and rural transmission noted in Africa. A new simple pond model framework represents surface hydrology. The model can be used on with spatial resolutions finer than 10km to resolve individual health districts and thus can be used as a planning tool. Results of the models representation of interannual variability and longer term projections of malaria transmission will be shown for Africa. These will show that the model represents the seasonality and spatial variations of malaria transmission well matching a wide range of survey data of parasite rate and entomological inoculation rate (EIR) from across West and East Africa taken in the period prior to large-scale interventions. The model is used to determine the sensitivity of malaria risk to climate variations, both in rainfall and temperature, and then its use in a prototype forecasting system coupled with ECMWF forecasts will be demonstrated.

High prevalence of HBV/A1 subgenotype in native south Americans may be explained by recent economic developments in the Amazon.

PubMed

Godoy, Bibiane A; Gomes-Gouvêa, Michele S; Zagonel-Oliveira, Marcelo; Alvarado-Mora, Mónica V; Salzano, Francisco M; Pinho, João R R; Fagundes, Nelson J R

2016-09-01

Native American populations present the highest prevalence of Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) infection in the Americas, which may be associated to severe disease outcomes. Ten HBV genotypes (A–J) have been described, displaying a remarkable geographic structure, which most likely reflects historic patterns of human migrations. In this study, we characterize the HBV strains circulating in a historical sample of Native South Americans to characterize the historical viral dynamics in this population. The sample consisted of 1070 individuals belonging to 38 populations collected between 1965 and 1997. Presence of HBV DNA was checked by quantitative real-time PCR, and determination of HBV genotypes and subgenotypes was performed through sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of a fragment including part of HBsAg and Pol coding regions (S/Pol). A Bayesian Skyline Plot analysis was performed to compare the viral population dynamics of HBV/A1 strains found in Native Americans and in the general Brazilian population. A total of 109 individuals were positive for HBV DNA (~ 10%), and 70 samples were successfully sequenced and genotyped. Subgenotype A1 (HBV/A1), related to African populations and the African slave trade, was the most prevalent (66–94%). The Skyline Plot analysis showed a marked population expansion of HBV/A1 in Native Americans occurring more recently (1945–1965) than in the general Brazilian population. Our results suggest that historic processes that contributed to formation of HBV/A1 circulating in Native American are related with more recent migratory waves towards the Amazon basin, which generated a different viral dynamics in this region.

Large Variations in HIV-1 Viral Load Explained by Shifting-Mosaic Metapopulation Dynamics

PubMed Central

Lythgoe, Katrina A.; Blanquart, François

2016-01-01

The viral population of HIV-1, like many pathogens that cause systemic infection, is structured and differentiated within the body. The dynamics of cellular immune trafficking through the blood and within compartments of the body has also received wide attention. Despite these advances, mathematical models, which are widely used to interpret and predict viral and immune dynamics in infection, typically treat the infected host as a well-mixed homogeneous environment. Here, we present mathematical, analytical, and computational results that demonstrate that consideration of the spatial structure of the viral population within the host radically alters predictions of previous models. We study the dynamics of virus replication and cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) within a metapopulation of spatially segregated patches, representing T cell areas connected by circulating blood and lymph. The dynamics of the system depend critically on the interaction between CTLs and infected cells at the within-patch level. We show that for a wide range of parameters, the system admits an unexpected outcome called the shifting-mosaic steady state. In this state, the whole body’s viral population is stable over time, but the equilibrium results from an underlying, highly dynamic process of local infection and clearance within T-cell centers. Notably, and in contrast to previous models, this new model can explain the large differences in set-point viral load (SPVL) observed between patients and their distribution, as well as the relatively low proportion of cells infected at any one time, and alters the predicted determinants of viral load variation. PMID:27706164

Dynamics of Predator-Prey Metapopulations with Allee Effects.

PubMed

Fan, Meng; Wu, Ping; Feng, Zhilan; Swihart, Robert K

2016-08-01

Allee effects increasingly are recognized as influential determinants of population dynamics, especially in disturbed landscapes. We developed a predator-prey metapopulation model to study the impact of an Allee effect on predator-prey. The model incorporates habitat destruction and predators with imperfect information about prey distribution. Criteria are established for the existence and stability of equilibria, and the possible existence of a limit cycle is discussed. Numerical bifurcation analysis of the model is carried out to examine the impact of Allee effects as well as other key processes on trophic dynamics. Inclusion of Allee effects produces a richer array of dynamics than earlier models in which it was absent. When prey interacts with generalist predators, Allee effects operate synergistically to depress prey populations. Allee effects are more likely to depress occupancy levels when destruction of habitat patches is moderate; at severe levels of destruction, Allee effects are swamped by demographic effects of habitat loss. Stronger Allee effects correspond to lower thresholds of predator colonization rates at which prey become extinct. We discuss implications of our model for conservation of rare species as well as pest management via biocontrol.

A Proposed Dynamic Pressure and Temperature Primary Standard

PubMed Central

Rosasco, Gregory J.; Bean, Vern E.; Hurst, Wilbur S.

1990-01-01

Diatomic gas molecules have a fundamental vibrational motion whose frequency is affected by pressure in a simple way. In addition, these molecules have well defined rotational energy levels whose populations provide a reliable measure of the thermodynamic temperature. Since information concerning the frequency of vibration and the relative populations can be determined by laser spectroscopy, the gas molecules themselves can serve as sensors of pressure and temperature. Through measurements under static conditions, the pressure and temperature dependence of the spectra of selected molecules is now understood. As the time required for the spectroscopic measurement can be reduced to nanoseconds, the diatomic gas molecule is an excellent candidate for a dynamic pressure/temperature primary standard. The temporal response in this case will be limited by the equilibration time for the molecules to respond to changes in local thermodynamic variables. Preliminary feasibility studies suggest that by using coherent anti-Stokes Raman spectroscopy we will be able to measure dynamic pressure up to 108 Pa and dynamic temperature up to 1500 K with an uncertainty of 5%. PMID:28179756

Viral antibody dynamics in a chiropteran host

PubMed Central

Baker, Kate S; Suu-Ire, Richard; Barr, Jennifer; Hayman, David T S; Broder, Christopher C; Horton, Daniel L; Durrant, Christopher; Murcia, Pablo R; Cunningham, Andrew A; Wood, James L N

2014-01-01

Bats host many viruses that are significant for human and domestic animal health, but the dynamics of these infections in their natural reservoir hosts remain poorly elucidated. In these, and other, systems, there is evidence that seasonal life-cycle events drive infection dynamics, directly impacting the risk of exposure to spillover hosts. Understanding these dynamics improves our ability to predict zoonotic spillover from the reservoir hosts. To this end, we followed henipavirus antibody levels of >100 individual E. helvum in a closed, captive, breeding population over a 30-month period, using a powerful novel antibody quantitation method. We demonstrate the presence of maternal antibodies in this system and accurately determine their longevity. We also present evidence of population-level persistence of viral infection and demonstrate periods of increased horizontal virus transmission associated with the pregnancy/lactation period. The novel findings of infection persistence and the effect of pregnancy on viral transmission, as well as an accurate quantitation of chiropteran maternal antiviral antibody half-life, provide fundamental baseline data for the continued study of viral infections in these important reservoir hosts. PMID:24111634

Patterns of population genetic variation in sympatric chiltoniid amphipods within a calcrete aquifer reveal a dynamic subterranean environment

PubMed Central

Bradford, T M; Adams, M; Guzik, M T; Humphreys, W F; Austin, A D; Cooper, S JB

2013-01-01

Calcrete aquifers from the Yilgarn region of arid central Western Australia contain an assemblage of obligate groundwater invertebrate species that are each endemic to single aquifers. Fine-scale phylogeographic and population genetic analyses of three sympatric and independently derived species of amphipod (Chiltoniidae) were carried out to determine whether there were common patterns of population genetic structure or evidence for past geographic isolation of populations within a single calcrete aquifer. Genetic diversity in amphipod mitochondrial DNA (cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene) and allozymes were examined across a 3.5 km2 region of the Sturt Meadows calcrete, which contains a grid of 115 bore holes (=wells). Stygobiont amphipods were found to have high levels of mitochondrial haplotype diversity coupled with low nucleotide diversity. Mitochondrial phylogeographic structuring was found between haplogroups for one of the chiltoniid species, which also showed population structuring for nuclear markers. Signatures of population expansion in two of the three species, match previous findings for diving beetles at the same site, indicating that the system is dynamic. We propose isolation of populations in refugia within the calcrete, followed by expansion events, as the most likely source of intraspecific genetic diversity, due to changes in water level influencing gene flow across the calcrete. PMID:23549336

Solar Radiation Pressure Estimation and Analysis of a GEO Class of High Area-to-Mass Ratio Debris Objects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kelecy, Tom; Payne, Tim; Thurston, Robin; Stansbery, Gene

2007-01-01

A population of deep space objects is thought to be high area-to-mass ratio (AMR) debris having origins from sources in the geosynchronous orbit (GEO) belt. The typical AMR values have been observed to range anywhere from 1's to 10's of m(sup 2)/kg, and hence, higher than average solar radiation pressure effects result in long-term migration of eccentricity (0.1-0.6) and inclination over time. However, the nature of the debris orientation-dependent dynamics also results time-varying solar radiation forces about the average which complicate the short-term orbit determination processing. The orbit determination results are presented for several of these debris objects, and highlight their unique and varied dynamic attributes. Estimation or the solar pressure dynamics over time scales suitable for resolving the shorter term dynamics improves the orbit estimation, and hence, the orbit predictions needed to conduct follow-up observations.

Dynamical state of the network determines the efficacy of single neuron properties in shaping the network activity

PubMed Central

Sahasranamam, Ajith; Vlachos, Ioannis; Aertsen, Ad; Kumar, Arvind

2016-01-01

Spike patterns are among the most common electrophysiological descriptors of neuron types. Surprisingly, it is not clear how the diversity in firing patterns of the neurons in a network affects its activity dynamics. Here, we introduce the state-dependent stochastic bursting neuron model allowing for a change in its firing patterns independent of changes in its input-output firing rate relationship. Using this model, we show that the effect of single neuron spiking on the network dynamics is contingent on the network activity state. While spike bursting can both generate and disrupt oscillations, these patterns are ineffective in large regions of the network state space in changing the network activity qualitatively. Finally, we show that when single-neuron properties are made dependent on the population activity, a hysteresis like dynamics emerges. This novel phenomenon has important implications for determining the network response to time-varying inputs and for the network sensitivity at different operating points. PMID:27212008

Dynamical state of the network determines the efficacy of single neuron properties in shaping the network activity.

PubMed

Sahasranamam, Ajith; Vlachos, Ioannis; Aertsen, Ad; Kumar, Arvind

2016-05-23

Spike patterns are among the most common electrophysiological descriptors of neuron types. Surprisingly, it is not clear how the diversity in firing patterns of the neurons in a network affects its activity dynamics. Here, we introduce the state-dependent stochastic bursting neuron model allowing for a change in its firing patterns independent of changes in its input-output firing rate relationship. Using this model, we show that the effect of single neuron spiking on the network dynamics is contingent on the network activity state. While spike bursting can both generate and disrupt oscillations, these patterns are ineffective in large regions of the network state space in changing the network activity qualitatively. Finally, we show that when single-neuron properties are made dependent on the population activity, a hysteresis like dynamics emerges. This novel phenomenon has important implications for determining the network response to time-varying inputs and for the network sensitivity at different operating points.

Temporal analysis of genetic structure to assess population dynamics of reintroduced swift foxes.

PubMed

Cullingham, Catherine I; Moehrenschlager, Axel

2013-12-01

Reintroductions are increasingly used to reestablish species, but a paucity of long-term postrelease monitoring has limited understanding of whether and when viable populations subsequently persist. We conducted temporal genetic analyses of reintroduced populations of swift foxes (Vulpes velox) in Canada (Alberta and Saskatchewan) and the United States (Montana). We used samples collected 4 years apart, 17 years from the initiation of the reintroduction, and 3 years after the conclusion of releases. To assess program success, we genotyped 304 hair samples, subsampled from the known range in 2000 and 2001, and 2005 and 2006, at 7 microsatellite loci. We compared diversity, effective population size, and genetic connectivity over time in each population. Diversity remained stable over time and there was evidence of increasing effective population size. We determined population structure in both periods after correcting for differences in sample sizes. The geographic distribution of these populations roughly corresponded with the original release locations, which suggests the release sites had residual effects on the population structure. However, given that both reintroduction sites had similar source populations, habitat fragmentation, due to cropland, may be associated with the population structure we found. Although our results indicate growing, stable populations, future connectivity analyses are warranted to ensure both populations are not subject to negative small-population effects. Our results demonstrate the importance of multiple sampling years to fully capture population dynamics of reintroduced populations. Análisis Temporal de la Estructura Genética para Evaluar la Dinámica Poblacional de Zorros (Vulpes velox) Reintroducidos. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Effects of constant immigration on the dynamics and persistence of stable and unstable Drosophila populations

PubMed Central

Dey, Snigdhadip; Joshi, Amitabh

2013-01-01

Constant immigration can stabilize population size fluctuations but its effects on extinction remain unexplored. We show that constant immigration significantly reduced extinction in fruitfly populations with relatively stable or unstable dynamics. In unstable populations with oscillations of amplitude around 1.5 times the mean population size, persistence and constancy were unrelated. Low immigration enhanced persistence without affecting constancy whereas high immigration increased constancy without enhancing persistence. In relatively stable populations with erratic fluctuations of amplitude close to the mean population size, both low and high immigration enhanced persistence. In these populations, the amplitude of fluctuations relative to mean population size went down due to immigration, and their dynamics were altered to low-period cycles. The effects of immigration on the population size distribution and intrinsic dynamics of stable versus unstable populations differed considerably, suggesting that the mechanisms by which immigration reduced extinction risk depended on underlying dynamics in complex ways. PMID:23470546

Dynamics of Weeds in the Soil Seed Bank: A Hidden Markov Model to Estimate Life History Traits from Standing Plant Time Series.

PubMed

Borgy, Benjamin; Reboud, Xavier; Peyrard, Nathalie; Sabbadin, Régis; Gaba, Sabrina

2015-01-01

Predicting the population dynamics of annual plants is a challenge due to their hidden seed banks in the field. However, such predictions are highly valuable for determining management strategies, specifically in agricultural landscapes. In agroecosystems, most weed seeds survive during unfavourable seasons and persist for several years in the seed bank. This causes difficulties in making accurate predictions of weed population dynamics and life history traits (LHT). Consequently, it is very difficult to identify management strategies that limit both weed populations and species diversity. In this article, we present a method of assessing weed population dynamics from both standing plant time series data and an unknown seed bank. We use a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to obtain estimates of over 3,080 botanical records for three major LHT: seed survival in the soil, plant establishment (including post-emergence mortality), and seed production of 18 common weed species. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches were complementarily used to estimate LHT values. The results showed that the LHT provided by the HMM enabled fairly accurate estimates of weed populations in different crops. There was a positive correlation between estimated germination rates and an index of the specialisation to the crop type (IndVal). The relationships between estimated LHTs and that between the estimated LHTs and the ecological characteristics of weeds provided insights into weed strategies. For example, a common strategy to cope with agricultural practices in several weeds was to produce less seeds and increase germination rates. This knowledge, especially of LHT for each type of crop, should provide valuable information for developing sustainable weed management strategies.

Dynamics of Weeds in the Soil Seed Bank: A Hidden Markov Model to Estimate Life History Traits from Standing Plant Time Series

PubMed Central

Borgy, Benjamin; Reboud, Xavier; Peyrard, Nathalie; Sabbadin, Régis; Gaba, Sabrina

2015-01-01

Predicting the population dynamics of annual plants is a challenge due to their hidden seed banks in the field. However, such predictions are highly valuable for determining management strategies, specifically in agricultural landscapes. In agroecosystems, most weed seeds survive during unfavourable seasons and persist for several years in the seed bank. This causes difficulties in making accurate predictions of weed population dynamics and life history traits (LHT). Consequently, it is very difficult to identify management strategies that limit both weed populations and species diversity. In this article, we present a method of assessing weed population dynamics from both standing plant time series data and an unknown seed bank. We use a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to obtain estimates of over 3,080 botanical records for three major LHT: seed survival in the soil, plant establishment (including post-emergence mortality), and seed production of 18 common weed species. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches were complementarily used to estimate LHT values. The results showed that the LHT provided by the HMM enabled fairly accurate estimates of weed populations in different crops. There was a positive correlation between estimated germination rates and an index of the specialisation to the crop type (IndVal). The relationships between estimated LHTs and that between the estimated LHTs and the ecological characteristics of weeds provided insights into weed strategies. For example, a common strategy to cope with agricultural practices in several weeds was to produce less seeds and increase germination rates. This knowledge, especially of LHT for each type of crop, should provide valuable information for developing sustainable weed management strategies. PMID:26427023

Wildlife disease ecology from the individual to the population: Insights from a long-term study of a naturally infected European badger population.

PubMed

McDonald, Jenni L; Robertson, Andrew; Silk, Matthew J

2018-01-01

Long-term individual-based datasets on host-pathogen systems are a rare and valuable resource for understanding the infectious disease dynamics in wildlife. A study of European badgers (Meles meles) naturally infected with bovine tuberculosis (bTB) at Woodchester Park in Gloucestershire (UK) has produced a unique dataset, facilitating investigation of a diverse range of epidemiological and ecological questions with implications for disease management. Since the 1970s, this badger population has been monitored with a systematic mark-recapture regime yielding a dataset of >15,000 captures of >3,000 individuals, providing detailed individual life-history, morphometric, genetic, reproductive and disease data. The annual prevalence of bTB in the Woodchester Park badger population exhibits no straightforward relationship with population density, and both the incidence and prevalence of Mycobacterium bovis show marked variation in space. The study has revealed phenotypic traits that are critical for understanding the social structure of badger populations along with mechanisms vital for understanding disease spread at different spatial resolutions. Woodchester-based studies have provided key insights into how host ecology can influence infection at different spatial and temporal scales. Specifically, it has revealed heterogeneity in epidemiological parameters; intrinsic and extrinsic factors affecting population dynamics; provided insights into senescence and individual life histories; and revealed consistent individual variation in foraging patterns, refuge use and social interactions. An improved understanding of ecological and epidemiological processes is imperative for effective disease management. Woodchester Park research has provided information of direct relevance to bTB management, and a better appreciation of the role of individual heterogeneity in disease transmission can contribute further in this regard. The Woodchester Park study system now offers a rare opportunity to seek a dynamic understanding of how individual-, group- and population-level processes interact. The wealth of existing data makes it possible to take a more integrative approach to examining how the consequences of individual heterogeneity scale to determine population-level pathogen dynamics and help advance our understanding of the ecological drivers of host-pathogen systems. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Exploitation dynamics of small fish stocks like Arctic cisco

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nielsen, Jennifer L.

2004-01-01

Potential impacts to the Arctic cisco population fall into both demographic and behavioral categories. Possible demographic impacts include stock recruitment effects, limited escapement into marine habitats, and variable age-class reproductive success. Potential behavioral impacts involve migratory patterns, variable life histories, and strategies for seasonal feeding. Arctic cisco stocks are highly susceptible to over-exploitation due to our limited basic knowledge of the highly variable Arctic environment and the role they play in this dynamic ecosystem.Our knowledge of potential demographic changes is very limited, and it is necessary to determine the abundance and recruitment of the hypothesized Mackenzie River source population, the extent of the coastal migratory corridor, growth patterns, and coastal upwelling and mixing effects on population dynamics for this species. Information needed to answer some of the demographic questions includes basic evolutionary history and molecular genetics of Arctic cisco (for instance, are there contributions to the Arctic cisco stock from the Yukon?), what is the effective population size (i.e., breeding population size), and potential links to changes in climate. The basic behavioral questions include migratory and variable life history questions. For instance, the extent of movement back and forth between freshwater and the sea, age-specific differences in food web dynamics, and nearshore brackish and high salinity habitats are topics that should be studied. Life history data should be gathered to understand the variation in age at reproduction, salinity tolerance, scale and duration of the freshwater stage, survival, and adult migration. Both molecular and ecological tools should be integrated to manage the Arctic cisco stock(s), such as understanding global climate changes on patterns of harvest and recruitment, and the genetics of population structure and colonization. Perhaps other populations are contributing to the population within the Colville River other than only the Mackenzie River population. This needs further exploration. By examining otolith microchemistry, unique transitions from freshwater to sea can be identified for these stocks. This may shed light on why some fish arrive at the mouth of the Colville River, while others don’t.

ESTUARINE-OCEAN EXCHANGE IN A NORTH PACIFIC ESTUARY: COMPARISON OF STEADY STATE AND DYNAMIC MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

Nutrient levels in coastal waters must be accurately assessed to determine the nutrient effects of increasing populations on coastal ecosystems. To accomplish this goal, in-field data with sufficient temporal resolution are required to define nutrient sources and sinks, and to ul...

Application of the stage-projection model with density-dependent fecundity to the population dynamics of Spanish ibex

USGS Publications Warehouse

Escos, J.; Alados, C.L.; Emlen, John M.

1994-01-01

A stage-class population model with density-feedback term included was used to identify the most critical parameters determining the population dynamics of female Spanish ibex (Capra pyrenaica) in southern Spain. A population in the Cazorla and Segura mountains is rapidly declining, but the eastern Sierra Nevada population is growing. The stable population density obtained using estimated values of kid and adult survival (0.49 and 0.87, respectively) and with fecundity equal to 0.367 in the absence of density feedback is 12.7 or 16.82 individuals/km2, based on a non-time-lagged and a time-lagged model, respectively. Given the maximum estimate of fecundity and an adult survival rate of 0.87, a kid survival rate of at least 0.41 is required to avoid extinction. At the minimum fecundity estimate, kid survival would have to exceed 0.52. Elasticities were used to estimate the influence of variation in life-cycle parameters on the intrinsic rate of increase. Adult survival is the most critical parameter, while fecundity and juvenile survival are less important. An increase in adult survival from 0.87 to 0.91 in the Cazorla and Segura mountains population would almost stabilize the population in the absence of stochastic variation, while the same increase in the Sierra Nevada population would yield population growth of 4–5% per annum. A reduction in adult survival to 0.83 results in population decline in both cases.

Towards a Population Dynamics Theory for Evolutionary Computing: Learning from Biological Population Dynamics in Nature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Zhanshan (Sam)

In evolutionary computing (EC), population size is one of the critical parameters that a researcher has to deal with. Hence, it was no surprise that the pioneers of EC, such as De Jong (1975) and Holland (1975), had already studied the population sizing from the very beginning of EC. What is perhaps surprising is that more than three decades later, we still largely depend on the experience or ad-hoc trial-and-error approach to set the population size. For example, in a recent monograph, Eiben and Smith (2003) indicated: "In almost all EC applications, the population size is constant and does not change during the evolutionary search." Despite enormous research on this issue in recent years, we still lack a well accepted theory for population sizing. In this paper, I propose to develop a population dynamics theory forEC with the inspiration from the population dynamics theory of biological populations in nature. Essentially, the EC population is considered as a dynamic system over time (generations) and space (search space or fitness landscape), similar to the spatial and temporal dynamics of biological populations in nature. With this conceptual mapping, I propose to 'transplant' the biological population dynamics theory to EC via three steps: (i) experimentally test the feasibility—whether or not emulating natural population dynamics improves the EC performance; (ii) comparatively study the underlying mechanisms—why there are improvements, primarily via statistical modeling analysis; (iii) conduct theoretical analysis with theoretical models such as percolation theory and extended evolutionary game theory that are generally applicable to both EC and natural populations. This article is a summary of a series of studies we have performed to achieve the general goal [27][30]-[32]. In the following, I start with an extremely brief introduction on the theory and models of natural population dynamics (Sections 1 & 2). In Sections 4 to 6, I briefly discuss three categories of population dynamics models: deterministic modeling with Logistic chaos map as an example, stochastic modeling with spatial distribution patterns as an example, as well as survival analysis and extended evolutionary game theory (EEGT) modeling. Sample experiment results with Genetic algorithms (GA) are presented to demonstrate the applications of these models. The proposed EC population dynamics approach also makes survival selection largely unnecessary or much simplified since the individuals are naturally selected (controlled) by the mathematical models for EC population dynamics.

Emergence and dynamics of self-producing information niches as a step towards pre-evolutionary organization

PubMed Central

Carter, Richard J.; Wiesner, Karoline

2018-01-01

As a step towards understanding pre-evolutionary organization in non-genetic systems, we develop a model to investigate the emergence and dynamics of proto-autopoietic networks in an interacting population of simple information processing entities (automata). Our simulations indicate that dynamically stable strongly connected networks of mutually producing communication channels emerge under specific environmental conditions. We refer to these distinct organizational steady states as information niches. In each case, we measure the information content by the Shannon entropy, and determine the fitness landscape, robustness and transition pathways for information niches subjected to intermittent environmental perturbations under non-evolutionary conditions. By determining the information required to generate each niche, we show that niche transitions are only allowed if accompanied by an equal or increased level of information production that arises internally or via environmental perturbations that serve as an exogenous source of population diversification. Overall, our simulations show how proto-autopoietic networks of basic information processors form and compete, and under what conditions they persist over time or go extinct. These findings may be relevant to understanding how inanimate systems such as chemically communicating protocells can initiate the transition to living matter prior to the onset of contemporary evolutionary and genetic mechanisms. PMID:29343630

Nonlinear Socio-Ecological Dynamics and First Principles ofCollective Choice Behavior of ``Homo Socialis"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sonis, M.

Socio-ecological dynamics emerged from the field of Mathematical SocialSciences and opened up avenues for re-examination of classical problems of collective behavior in Social and Spatial sciences. The ``engine" of this collective behavior is the subjective mental evaluation of level of utilities in the future, presenting sets of composite socio-economic-temporal-locational advantages. These dynamics present new laws of collective multi-population behavior which are the meso-level counterparts of the utility optimization individual behavior. The central core of the socio-ecological choice dynamics includes the following first principle of the collective choice behavior of ``Homo Socialis" based on the existence of ``collective consciousness": the choice behavior of ``Homo Socialis" is a collective meso-level choice behavior such that the relative changes in choice frequencies depend on the distribution of innovation alternatives between adopters of innovations. The mathematical basis of the Socio-Ecological Dynamics includes two complementary analytical approaches both based on the use of computer modeling as a theoretical and simulation tool. First approach is the ``continuous approach" --- the systems of ordinary and partial differential equations reflecting the continuous time Volterra ecological formalism in a form of antagonistic and/or cooperative collective hyper-games between different sub-sets of choice alternatives. Second approach is the ``discrete approach" --- systems of difference equations presenting a new branch of the non-linear discrete dynamics --- the Discrete Relative m-population/n-innovations Socio-Spatial Dynamics (Dendrinos and Sonis, 1990). The generalization of the Volterra formalism leads further to the meso-level variational principle of collective choice behavior determining the balance between the resulting cumulative social spatio-temporal interactions among the population of adopters susceptible to the choice alternatives and the cumulative equalization of the power of elites supporting different choice alternatives. This balance governs the dynamic innovation choice process and constitutes the dynamic meso-level counterpart of the micro-economic individual utility maximization principle.

Characterizing Total Radiation Belt Electron Content Using Van Allen Probes Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, C. L.; Spence, H. E.; Boyd, A. J.; Jordan, A.; Paulson, K. W.; Zhang, J.; Blake, J. B.; Kletzing, C.

2014-12-01

The comprehensive particle and wave measurements of the Van Allen Probes enable us to monitor the entire radiation belt near the equator from L-shells of 2.5 to 6. Using the particle measurements, we create an improved, high-level quantity representing the entire outer belt. This quantity, the total radiation belt electron content (TRBEC), is the half-orbit sum of outer belt electrons over the radiation belt energy ranges of importance and all pitch angles using data from RBSP-ECT instrument on board both spacecraft. The goal is to characterize statistically the dynamics of the entire radiation belt by comparing TRBEC with solar wind parameters, magnetospheric waves, and electron seed population. When comparing TRBEC with solar wind velocity, our result shows a triangle-distribution similar to that which Reeves et al. (2011) found using geosynchronous electron flux. We also correlate TRBEC with other solar wind parameters to identify which solar wind conditions effectively enhance or deplete radiation belt electrons. In addition, plasma waves in the inner magnetosphere, via wave-particle interaction, are key elements affecting the dynamics of the radiation belt. Therefore, we compare TRBEC with integrated EMIC and chorus (upper and lower bands) wave power calculated from EMFISIS wave measurements to determine the relative importance between each wave-particle process. Finally, we demonstrate the ~100 keV seed population's characteristics that correspond to the MeV population enhancement. While the gross features of the two populations are similar, the MeV population's dynamics lag behind those of the seed population by 5 to 60 hours, which implies the acceleration or loss processes vary by event.

Using high-resolution satellite imagery to assess populations of animals in the Antarctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LaRue, Michelle Ann

The Southern Ocean is one of the most rapidly-changing ecosystems on the planet due to the effects of climate change and commercial fishing for ecologically-important krill and fish. It is imperative that populations of indicator species, such as penguins and seals, be monitored at regional- to global scales to decouple the effects of climate and anthropogenic changes for appropriate ecosystem-based management of the Southern Ocean. Remotely monitoring populations through high-resolution satellite imagery is currently the only feasible way to gain information about population trends of penguins and seals in Antarctica. In my first chapter, I review the literature where high-resolution satellite imagery has been used to assess populations of animals in polar regions. Building on this literature, my second chapter focuses on estimating changes in abundance in the Weddell seal population in Erebus Bay. I found a strong correlation between ground and satellite counts, and this finding provides an alternate method for assessing populations of Weddell seals in areas where less is known about population status. My third chapter explores how size of the guano stain of Adelie penguins can be used to predict population size. Using high-resolution imagery and ground counts, I built a model to estimate the breeding population of Adelie penguins using a supervised classification to estimate guano size. These results suggest that the size of guano stain is an accurate predictor of population size, and can be applied to estimate remote Adelie penguin colonies. In my fourth chapter, I use air photos, satellite imagery, climate and mark-resight data to determine that climate change has positively impacted the population of Adelie penguins at Beaufort Island through a habitat release that ultimately affected the dynamics within the southern Ross Sea metapopulation. Finally, for my fifth chapter I combined the literature with observations from aerial surveys and satellite imagery to determine that emperor penguins are not philopatric. These results have implications for interpreting long-term modeling studies and I suggest that future research should account for metapopulation dynamics within emperor penguin populations. Combined, my dissertation provides resources and new insights for effective management of the Southern Ocean ecosystem.

Influence of demographic changes on the impact of vaccination against varicella and herpes zoster in Germany - a mathematical modelling study.

PubMed

Horn, Johannes; Damm, Oliver; Greiner, Wolfgang; Hengel, Hartmut; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E; Siedler, Anette; Ultsch, Bernhard; Weidemann, Felix; Wichmann, Ole; Karch, André; Mikolajczyk, Rafael T

2018-01-09

Epidemiological studies suggest that reduced exposure to varicella might lead to an increased risk for herpes zoster (HZ). Reduction of exposure to varicella is a consequence of varicella vaccination but also of demographic changes. We analyzed how the combination of vaccination programs and demographic dynamics will affect the epidemiology of varicella and HZ in Germany over the next 50 years. We used a deterministic dynamic compartmental model to assess the impact of different varicella and HZ vaccination strategies on varicella and HZ epidemiology in three demographic scenarios, namely the projected population for Germany, the projected population additionally accounting for increased immigration as observed in 2015/2016, and a stationary population. Projected demographic changes alone result in an increase of annual HZ cases by 18.3% and a decrease of varicella cases by 45.7% between 1990 and 2060. Independently of the demographic scenario, varicella vaccination reduces the cumulative number of varicella cases until 2060 by approximately 70%, but also increases HZ cases by 10%. Unlike the currently licensed live attenuated HZ vaccine, the new subunit vaccine candidate might completely counteract this effect. Relative vaccine effects were consistent across all demographic scenarios. Demographic dynamics will be a major determinant of HZ epidemiology in the next 50 years. While stationary population models are appropriate for assessing vaccination impact, models incorporating realistic population structures allow a direct comparison to surveillance data and can thus provide additional input for immunization decision-making and resource planning.

Evolutionary dynamics on graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lieberman, Erez; Hauert, Christoph; Nowak, Martin A.

2005-01-01

Evolutionary dynamics have been traditionally studied in the context of homogeneous or spatially extended populations. Here we generalize population structure by arranging individuals on a graph. Each vertex represents an individual. The weighted edges denote reproductive rates which govern how often individuals place offspring into adjacent vertices. The homogeneous population, described by the Moran process, is the special case of a fully connected graph with evenly weighted edges. Spatial structures are described by graphs where vertices are connected with their nearest neighbours. We also explore evolution on random and scale-free networks. We determine the fixation probability of mutants, and characterize those graphs for which fixation behaviour is identical to that of a homogeneous population. Furthermore, some graphs act as suppressors and others as amplifiers of selection. It is even possible to find graphs that guarantee the fixation of any advantageous mutant. We also study frequency-dependent selection and show that the outcome of evolutionary games can depend entirely on the structure of the underlying graph. Evolutionary graph theory has many fascinating applications ranging from ecology to multi-cellular organization and economics.

Critical patch-size for two-sex populations.

PubMed

Andreguetto Maciel, Gabriel; Mendes Coutinho, Renato; André Kraenkel, Roberto

2018-06-01

As environments become increasingly degraded, mainly due to human activities, species are often subject to isolated habitats surrounded by unfavorable regions. Since the pioneering work by Skellam [25] mathematical models have provided useful insights into the population persistence in such cases. Most of these models, however, neglect the sex structure of populations and the differences between males and females. In this work we investigate, through a reaction-diffusion system, the dynamics of a sex-structured population in a single semipermeable patch. The critical patch size for persistence is determined from implicit relationships between model parameters. The effects of the various growth and movement parameters are also investigated. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term trends of bloater (Coregonus hoyi) recruitment in Lake Michigan: evidence for the effect of sex ratio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bunnell, David B.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Croley, Thomas E.

2006-01-01

Long-term population trends are generally explained by factors extrinsic (e.g., climate, predation) rather than intrinsic (e.g., genetics, maternal effects) to the population. We sought to understand the long-term population dynamics of an important native Lake Michigan prey fish, the bloaterCoregonus hoyi. Over a 38-year time series, three 10- to 15-year phases occurred (poor, excellent, and then poor recruitment) without high interannual variability within a particular phase. We used dynamic linear models to determine whether extrinsic (winter and spring temperature, alewife predator densities) or intrinsic factors (population egg production, adult condition, adult sex ratio) explained variation in recruitment. Models that included population egg production, sex ratio, winter and spring temperature, and adult bloater condition explained the most variation. Of these variables, sex ratio, which ranged from 47% to 97% female across the time series, consistently had the greatest effect: recruitment declined with female predominance. Including biomass of adult alewife predators in the models did not explain additional variation. Overall our results indicated that bloater recruitment is linked to its sex ratio, but understanding the underlying mechanisms will require additional efforts.

Environmental change disrupts communication and sexual selection in a stickleback population.

PubMed

Candolin, Ulrika; Tukiainen, Iina; Bertell, Elina

2016-04-01

Environmental change that disrupts communication during mate choice and alters sexual selection could influence population dynamics. Yet little is known about such long-term effects. We investigated experimentally the consequences that disrupted visual communication during mate choice has for the quantity and viability of offspring produced in a threespine stickleback population (Gasterosteus aculeatus). We further related the results to long-term monitoring of population dynamics in the field to determine if changes are apparent under natural conditions. The results show that impaired visual communication because of algal blooms reduces reliability of male visual signals as indicators of offspring survival during their first weeks of life. This relaxes sexual selection but has no effect on the number of offspring hatching, as most males have a high hatching success in turbid water. Despite eutrophication and high turbidity levels that interfere with communication during mate choice, the population has grown during recent decades. Large numbers of offspring hatching, combined with high variation in juvenile fitness, has probably shifted selection to later life history stages and maintained a viable population. Together with reduced cost of sexual selection and ongoing ecosystem changes caused by human activities, this could have promoted population growth. These results point to the complexity of ecosystems and the necessity to consider all influencing factors when attempting to understand impacts of human activities on populations.

Detectability of landscape effects on recolonization increases with regional population density

PubMed Central

Liman, Anna-Sara; Dalin, Peter; Björkman, Christer

2015-01-01

Variation in population size over time can influence our ability to identify landscape-moderated differences in community assembly. To date, however, most studies at the landscape scale only cover snapshots in time, thereby overlooking the temporal dynamics of populations and communities. In this paper, we present data that illustrate how temporal variation in population density at a regional scale can influence landscape-moderated variation in recolonization and population buildup in disturbed habitat patches. Four common insect species, two omnivores and two herbivores, were monitored over 8 years in 10 willow short-rotation coppice bio-energy stands with a four-year disturbance regime (coppice cycle). The population densities in these regularly disturbed stands were compared to densities in 17 undisturbed natural Salix cinerea (grey willow) stands in the same region. A time series approach was used, utilizing the natural variation between years to statistically model recolonization as a function of landscape composition under two different levels of regional density. Landscape composition, i.e. relative amount of forest vs. open agricultural habitats, largely determined the density of re-colonizing populations following willow coppicing in three of the four species. However, the impact of landscape composition was not detectable in years with low regional density. Our results illustrate that landscape-moderated recolonization can change over time and that considering the temporal dynamics of populations may be crucial when designing and evaluating studies at landscape level. PMID:26257881

Detectability of landscape effects on recolonization increases with regional population density.

PubMed

Liman, Anna-Sara; Dalin, Peter; Björkman, Christer

2015-07-01

Variation in population size over time can influence our ability to identify landscape-moderated differences in community assembly. To date, however, most studies at the landscape scale only cover snapshots in time, thereby overlooking the temporal dynamics of populations and communities. In this paper, we present data that illustrate how temporal variation in population density at a regional scale can influence landscape-moderated variation in recolonization and population buildup in disturbed habitat patches. Four common insect species, two omnivores and two herbivores, were monitored over 8 years in 10 willow short-rotation coppice bio-energy stands with a four-year disturbance regime (coppice cycle). The population densities in these regularly disturbed stands were compared to densities in 17 undisturbed natural Salix cinerea (grey willow) stands in the same region. A time series approach was used, utilizing the natural variation between years to statistically model recolonization as a function of landscape composition under two different levels of regional density. Landscape composition, i.e. relative amount of forest vs. open agricultural habitats, largely determined the density of re-colonizing populations following willow coppicing in three of the four species. However, the impact of landscape composition was not detectable in years with low regional density. Our results illustrate that landscape-moderated recolonization can change over time and that considering the temporal dynamics of populations may be crucial when designing and evaluating studies at landscape level.

Effects of Dynamical Evolution on Globular Clusters’ Internal Kinematics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiongco, Maria; Vesperini, Enrico; Varri, Anna Lisa

2018-01-01

The synergy between recent photometric, spectroscopic, and astrometric studies is revealing that globular clusters deviate from the traditional picture of dynamically simple and single stellar population systems. Complex kinematical features such as velocity anisotropy and rotation, and the existence of multiple stellar populations are some of the key observational findings. My thesis work has aimed to build a theoretical framework to interpret these new observational results and to understand their link with a globular cluster’s dynamical history.I have focused on the study of the evolution of globular clusters' internal kinematics, as driven by two-body relaxation, and the interplay between internal angular momentum and the external Galactic tidal field. With a specifically-designed, large survey of direct N-body simulations, I have explored the three-dimensional structure of the velocity space of tidally-perturbed clusters, by characterizing their degree of anisotropy and their rotational properties. These studies have proved that a cluster's kinematical properties contain a distinct imprints of the cluster’s initial structural properties, dynamical history, and tidal environment. By relaxing a number of simplifying assumptions that are traditionally imposed, I have also showed how the interplay between a cluster's internal evolution and the interaction with the host galaxy can produce complex morphological and kinematical properties, such as a counter-rotating core and a twisting of the projected isodensity contours.Building on this fundamental understanding, I have then studied the dynamics of multiple stellar populations in globular clusters, with attention to the largely unexplored role of angular momentum. I have analyzed the evolution of clusters with stellar populations characterized by different initial structural and kinematical properties to determine how long these differences are preserved, and in what cases they could still be observable in present-day systems.This body of results provides essential guidance for a meaningful interpretation of the emerging dynamical complexity of globular clusters in the era of Gaia and other upcoming large spectroscopic surveys.

Early signatures of regime shifts in gene expression dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pal, Mainak; Pal, Amit Kumar; Ghosh, Sayantari; Bose, Indrani

2013-06-01

Recently, a large number of studies have been carried out on the early signatures of sudden regime shifts in systems as diverse as ecosystems, financial markets, population biology and complex diseases. The signatures of regime shifts in gene expression dynamics are less systematically investigated. In this paper, we consider sudden regime shifts in the gene expression dynamics described by a fold-bifurcation model involving bistability and hysteresis. We consider two alternative models, models 1 and 2, of competence development in the bacterial population B. subtilis and determine some early signatures of the regime shifts between competence and noncompetence. We use both deterministic and stochastic formalisms for the purpose of our study. The early signatures studied include the critical slowing down as a transition point is approached, rising variance and the lag-1 autocorrelation function, skewness and a ratio of two mean first passage times. Some of the signatures could provide the experimental basis for distinguishing between bistability and excitability as the correct mechanism for the development of competence.

Predators indirectly control vector-borne disease: linking predator-prey and host-pathogen models.

PubMed

Moore, Sean M; Borer, Elizabeth T; Hosseini, Parviez R

2010-01-06

Pathogens transmitted by arthropod vectors are common in human populations, agricultural systems and natural communities. Transmission of these vector-borne pathogens depends on the population dynamics of the vector species as well as its interactions with other species within the community. In particular, predation may be sufficient to control pathogen prevalence indirectly via the vector. To examine the indirect effect of predators on vectored-pathogen dynamics, we developed a theoretical model that integrates predator-prey and host-pathogen theory. We used this model to determine whether predation can prevent pathogen persistence or alter the stability of host-pathogen dynamics. We found that, in the absence of predation, pathogen prevalence in the host increases with vector fecundity, whereas predation on the vector causes pathogen prevalence to decline, or even become extinct, with increasing vector fecundity. We also found that predation on a vector may drastically slow the initial spread of a pathogen. The predator can increase host abundance indirectly by reducing or eliminating infection in the host population. These results highlight the importance of studying interactions that, within the greater community, may alter our predictions when studying disease dynamics. From an applied perspective, these results also suggest situations where an introduced predator or the natural enemies of a vector may slow the rate of spread of an emerging vector-borne pathogen.

Hormonally mediated maternal effects, individual strategy and global change

PubMed Central

Meylan, Sandrine; Miles, Donald B.; Clobert, Jean

2012-01-01

A challenge to ecologists and evolutionary biologists is predicting organismal responses to the anticipated changes to global ecosystems through climate change. Most evidence suggests that short-term global change may involve increasing occurrences of extreme events, therefore the immediate response of individuals will be determined by physiological capacities and life-history adaptations to cope with extreme environmental conditions. Here, we consider the role of hormones and maternal effects in determining the persistence of species in altered environments. Hormones, specifically steroids, are critical for patterning the behaviour and morphology of parents and their offspring. Hence, steroids have a pervasive influence on multiple aspects of the offspring phenotype over its lifespan. Stress hormones, e.g. glucocorticoids, modulate and perturb phenotypes both early in development and later into adulthood. Females exposed to abiotic stressors during reproduction may alter the phenotypes by manipulation of hormones to the embryos. Thus, hormone-mediated maternal effects, which generate phenotypic plasticity, may be one avenue for coping with global change. Variation in exposure to hormones during development influences both the propensity to disperse, which alters metapopulation dynamics, and population dynamics, by affecting either recruitment to the population or subsequent life-history characteristics of the offspring. We suggest that hormones may be an informative index to the potential for populations to adapt to changing environments. PMID:22566673

Dispersal, niche breadth and population extinction: colonization ratios predict range size in North American dragonflies.

PubMed

McCauley, Shannon J; Davis, Christopher J; Werner, Earl E; Robeson, Michael S

2014-07-01

Species' range sizes are shaped by fundamental differences in species' ecological and evolutionary characteristics, and understanding the mechanisms determining range size can shed light on the factors responsible for generating and structuring biological diversity. Moreover, because geographic range size is associated with a species' risk of extinction and their ability to respond to global changes in climate and land use, understanding these mechanisms has important conservation implications. Despite the hypotheses that dispersal behaviour is a strong determinant of species range areas, few data are available to directly compare the relationship between dispersal behaviour and range size. Here, we overcome this limitation by combining data from a multispecies dispersal experiment with additional species-level trait data that are commonly hypothesized to affect range size (e.g. niche breadth, local abundance and body size.). This enables us to examine the relationship between these species-level traits and range size across North America for fifteen dragonfly species. Ten models based on a priori predictions about the relationship between species traits and range size were evaluated and two models were identified as good predictors of species range size. These models indicated that only two species' level traits, dispersal behaviour and niche breadth were strongly related to range size. The evidence from these two models indicated that dragonfly species that disperse more often and further had larger North American ranges. Extinction and colonization dynamics are expected to be a key linkage between dispersal behaviour and range size in dragonflies. To evaluate how extinction and colonization dynamics among dragonflies were related to range size we used an independent data set of extinction and colonization rates for eleven dragonfly species and assessed the relationship between these populations rates and North American range areas for these species. We found a negative relationship between North American range size and species' extinction-to-colonization ratios. Our results indicate that metapopulation dynamics act to shape the extent of species' continental distributions. These population dynamics are likely to interact with dispersal behaviour, particularly at species range margins, to determine range limits and ultimately species range sizes. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

The influence of climatic variability on local population dynamics of Cercidium microphyllum (foothill paloverde)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowers, Janice E.; Turner, R.M.

2002-01-01

This study investigated correlations among climatic variability, population age structure, and seedling survival of a dominant Sonoran Desert tree, Cercidium microphyllum (foothill paloverde), at Tucson, Arizona, USA. A major goal was to determine whether wet years promote seedling establishment and thereby determine population structure. Plant age was estimated from basal circumference for a sample of 980 living and dead trees in twelve 0.5-ha plots. Ages ranged from 1 to 181 years. Age frequency distribution showed that the population is in decline. Most (51.2%) of the 814 living trees were 40-80 years old; only 6.5% were younger than 20 years. The average age of the 166 dead trees was 78 years. Fifty-nine percent of dead trees were aged 60-100 years. Survival of newly emerged seedlings was monitored for 7 years in a 557-m2 permanent plot. Mean survival in the 1st year of life was 1.7%. Only 2 of 1,008 seedlings lived longer than 1 year. Length of survival was not correlated with rainfall. Residual regeneration, an index of the difference between predicted and observed cohort size, showed that regeneration was high during the first half of the twentieth century and poor after the mid-1950s. Trends in regeneration did not reflect interannual variation in seasonal temperature or rain before 1950, that is, in the years before urban warming. Taken together, the seedling study and the regeneration analysis suggest that local population dynamics reflect biotic factors to such an extent that population age structure might not always be a reliable clue to past climatic influences.

Linking demographic processes and foraging ecology in wandering albatross-Conservation implications.

PubMed

Weimerskirch, Henri

2018-07-01

Population dynamics and foraging ecology are two fields of the population ecology that are generally studied separately. Yet, foraging determines allocation processes and therefore demography. Studies on wandering albatrosses Diomedea exulans over the past 50 years have contributed to better understand the links between population dynamics and foraging ecology. This article reviews how these two facets of population ecology have been combined to better understand ecological processes, but also have contributed fundamentally for the conservation of this long-lived threatened species. Wandering albatross research has combined a 50-year long-term study of marked individuals with two decades of tracking studies that have been initiated on this species, favoured by its large size and tameness. At all stages of their life history, the body mass of individuals plays a central role in allocation processes, in particular in influencing adult and juvenile survival, decisions to recruit into the population or to invest into provisioning the offspring or into maintenance. Strong age-related variations in demographic parameters are observed and are linked to age-related differences in foraging distribution and efficiency. Marked sex-specific differences in foraging distribution, foraging efficiency and changes in mass over lifetime are directly related to the strong sex-specific investment in breeding and survival trajectories of the two sexes, with body mass playing a pivotal role especially in males. Long-term study has allowed determining the sex-specific and age-specific demographic causes of population decline, and the tracking studies have been able to derive where and how these impacts occur, in particular the role of long-line fisheries. © 2018 The Author. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Conceptualising population health: from mechanistic thinking to complexity science.

PubMed

Jayasinghe, Saroj

2011-01-20

The mechanistic interpretation of reality can be traced to the influential work by René Descartes and Sir Isaac Newton. Their theories were able to accurately predict most physical phenomena relating to motion, optics and gravity. This paradigm had at least three principles and approaches: reductionism, linearity and hierarchy. These ideas appear to have influenced social scientists and the discourse on population health. In contrast, Complexity Science takes a more holistic view of systems. It views natural systems as being 'open', with fuzzy borders, constantly adapting to cope with pressures from the environment. These are called Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS). The sub-systems within it lack stable hierarchies, and the roles of agency keep changing. The interactions with the environment and among sub-systems are non-linear interactions and lead to self-organisation and emergent properties. Theoretical frameworks such as epi+demos+cracy and the ecosocial approach to health have implicitly used some of these concepts of interacting dynamic sub-systems. Using Complexity Science we can view population health outcomes as an emergent property of CAS, which has numerous dynamic non-linear interactions among its interconnected sub-systems or agents. In order to appreciate these sub-systems and determinants, one should acquire a basic knowledge of diverse disciplines and interact with experts from different disciplines. Strategies to improve health should be multi-pronged, and take into account the diversity of actors, determinants and contexts. The dynamic nature of the system requires that the interventions are constantly monitored to provide early feedback to a flexible system that takes quick corrections.

Modelling food and population dynamics in honey bee colonies.

PubMed

Khoury, David S; Barron, Andrew B; Myerscough, Mary R

2013-01-01

Honey bees (Apis mellifera) are increasingly in demand as pollinators for various key agricultural food crops, but globally honey bee populations are in decline, and honey bee colony failure rates have increased. This scenario highlights a need to understand the conditions in which colonies flourish and in which colonies fail. To aid this investigation we present a compartment model of bee population dynamics to explore how food availability and bee death rates interact to determine colony growth and development. Our model uses simple differential equations to represent the transitions of eggs laid by the queen to brood, then hive bees and finally forager bees, and the process of social inhibition that regulates the rate at which hive bees begin to forage. We assume that food availability can influence both the number of brood successfully reared to adulthood and the rate at which bees transition from hive duties to foraging. The model predicts complex interactions between food availability and forager death rates in shaping colony fate. Low death rates and high food availability results in stable bee populations at equilibrium (with population size strongly determined by forager death rate) but consistently increasing food reserves. At higher death rates food stores in a colony settle at a finite equilibrium reflecting the balance of food collection and food use. When forager death rates exceed a critical threshold the colony fails but residual food remains. Our model presents a simple mathematical framework for exploring the interactions of food and forager mortality on colony fate, and provides the mathematical basis for more involved simulation models of hive performance.

Identifying Cost-Effective Dynamic Policies to Control Epidemics

PubMed Central

Yaesoubi, Reza; Cohen, Ted

2016-01-01

We describe a mathematical decision model for identifying dynamic health policies for controlling epidemics. These dynamic policies aim to select the best current intervention based on accumulating epidemic data and the availability of resources at each decision point. We propose an algorithm to approximate dynamic policies that optimize the population’s net health benefit, a performance measure which accounts for both health and monetary outcomes. We further illustrate how dynamic policies can be defined and optimized for the control of a novel viral pathogen, where a policy maker must decide (i) when to employ or lift a transmission-reducing intervention (e.g. school closure) and (ii) how to prioritize population members for vaccination when a limited quantity of vaccines first become available. Within the context of this application, we demonstrate that dynamic policies can produce higher net health benefit than more commonly described static policies that specify a pre-determined sequence of interventions to employ throughout epidemics. PMID:27449759

Olive Fruit Fly (Bactrocera oleae) Population Dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean: Influence of Exogenous Uncertainty on a Monophagous Frugivorous Insect

PubMed Central

Ordano, Mariano; Engelhard, Izhar; Rempoulakis, Polychronis; Nemny-Lavy, Esther; Blum, Moshe; Yasin, Sami; Lensky, Itamar M.; Papadopoulos, Nikos T.; Nestel, David

2015-01-01

Despite of the economic importance of the olive fly (Bactrocera oleae) and the large amount of biological and ecological studies on the insect, the factors driving its population dynamics (i.e., population persistence and regulation) had not been analytically investigated until the present study. Specifically, our study investigated the autoregressive process of the olive fly populations, and the joint role of intrinsic and extrinsic factors molding the population dynamics of the insect. Accounting for endogenous dynamics and the influences of exogenous factors such as olive grove temperature, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the presence of potential host fruit, we modeled olive fly populations in five locations in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Our models indicate that the rate of population change is mainly shaped by first and higher order non-monotonic, endogenous dynamics (i.e., density-dependent population feedback). The olive grove temperature was the main exogenous driver, while the North Atlantic Oscillation and fruit availability acted as significant exogenous factors in one of the five populations. Seasonal influences were also relevant for three of the populations. In spite of exogenous effects, the rate of population change was fairly stable along time. We propose that a special reproductive mechanism, such as reproductive quiescence, allows populations of monophagous fruit flies such as the olive fly to remain stable. Further, we discuss how weather factors could impinge constraints on the population dynamics at the local level. Particularly, local temperature dynamics could provide forecasting cues for management guidelines. Jointly, our results advocate for establishing monitoring programs and for a major focus of research on the relationship between life history traits and populations dynamics. PMID:26010332

Dispersal responses override density effects on genetic diversity during post-disturbance succession

PubMed Central

Landguth, Erin L.; Bull, C. Michael; Banks, Sam C.; Gardner, Michael G.; Driscoll, Don A.

2016-01-01

Dispersal fundamentally influences spatial population dynamics but little is known about dispersal variation in landscapes where spatial heterogeneity is generated predominantly by disturbance and succession. We tested the hypothesis that habitat succession following fire inhibits dispersal, leading to declines over time in genetic diversity in the early successional gecko Nephrurus stellatus. We combined a landscape genetics field study with a spatially explicit simulation experiment to determine whether successional patterns in genetic diversity were driven by habitat-mediated dispersal or demographic effects (declines in population density leading to genetic drift). Initial increases in genetic structure following fire were likely driven by direct mortality and rapid population expansion. Subsequent habitat succession increased resistance to gene flow and decreased dispersal and genetic diversity in N. stellatus. Simulated changes in population density alone did not reproduce these results. Habitat-mediated reductions in dispersal, combined with changes in population density, were essential to drive the field-observed patterns. Our study provides a framework for combining demographic, movement and genetic data with simulations to discover the relative influence of demography and dispersal on patterns of landscape genetic structure. Our results suggest that succession can inhibit connectivity among individuals, opening new avenues for understanding how disturbance regimes influence spatial population dynamics. PMID:27009225

Temporal genetic stability of Stegomyia aegypti (= Aedes aegypti) populations.

PubMed

Gloria-Soria, A; Kellner, D A; Brown, J E; Gonzalez-Acosta, C; Kamgang, B; Lutwama, J; Powell, J R

2016-06-01

The mosquito Stegomyia aegypti (= Aedes aegypti) (Diptera: Culicidae) is the primary vector of viruses that cause yellow fever, dengue and Chikungunya fever. In the absence of effective vaccines, the reduction of these diseases relies on vector control strategies. The success of these strategies is tightly linked to the population dynamics of target populations. In the present study, 14 collections from St. aegypti populations separated by periods of 1-13 years were analysed to determine their temporal genetic stability. Although temporal structure is discernible in most populations, the degree of temporal differentiation is dependent on the population and does not obscure the geographic structure of the various populations. The results suggest that performing detailed studies in the years prior to and after population reduction- or modification-based control interventions at each target field site may be useful in assessing the probability of success. © 2016 The Royal Entomological Society.

Ecosystem Scale Declines in Elk Recruitment and Population Growth with Wolf Colonization: A Before-After-Control-Impact Approach

PubMed Central

Christianson, David; Creel, Scott

2014-01-01

The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk – Cervus elaphus) in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves. PMID:25028933

Species pool, human population, and global versus regional invasion patterns

Treesearch

Qinfeng Guo; Basil V. Iannone III; Gabriela C. Nunez-Mir; Kevin M. Potter; Christopher M. Oswalt; Songlin Fei

2017-01-01

Context Biological invasions are among the greatest global and regional threats to biomes in the Anthropocene. Islands, in particular, have been perceived to have higher vulnerability to invasions. Because of the dynamic nature of ongoing invasions, distinguishing regional patterns from global patterns and their underlying determinants remains a challenge. Objectives...

DNA-based approach to aging martens (Martes americana and M. caurina)

Treesearch

Jonathan N. Pauli; John P. Whiteman; Bruce G. Marcot; Terry M. McClean; Merav Ben-David

2011-01-01

Demographic structure is central to understanding the dynamics of animal populations. However, determining the age of free-ranging mammals is difficult, and currently impossible when sampling with noninvasive, genetic-based approaches. We present a method to estimate age class by combining measures of telomere lengths with other biologically meaningful covariates in a...

Constituents of Quality of Life and Urban Size

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Royuela, Vicente; Surinach, Jordi

2005-01-01

Do cities have an optimal size? In seeking to answer this question, various theories, including Optimal City Size Theory, the supply-oriented dynamic approach and the city network paradigm, have been forwarded that considered a city's population size as a determinant of location costs and benefits. However, the generalised growth in wealth that…

Population dynamics of Meloidogyne arenaria and Pasteuria penetrans in a long-term crop rotation study.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The endospore-forming bacterium Pasteuria penetrans is an obligate parasite of root-knot nematodes (Meloidogyne spp.). This study was a continuation of earlier research to determine the effect of crop sequence on abundance of the bacterium, and was conducted from 2000 to 2008 at a field site natura...

Population Dynamics of Genetic Regulatory Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, Erez

2005-03-01

Unlike common objects in physics, a biological cell processes information. The cell interprets its genome and transforms the genomic information content, through the action of genetic regulatory networks, into proteins which in turn dictate its metabolism, functionality and morphology. Understanding the dynamics of a population of biological cells presents a unique challenge. It requires to link the intracellular dynamics of gene regulation, through the mechanism of cell division, to the level of the population. We present experiments studying adaptive dynamics of populations of genetically homogeneous microorganisms (yeast), grown for long durations under steady conditions. We focus on population dynamics that do not involve random genetic mutations. Our experiments follow the long-term dynamics of the population distributions and allow to quantify the correlations among generations. We focus on three interconnected issues: adaptation of genetically homogeneous populations following environmental changes, selection processes on the population and population variability and expression distributions. We show that while the population exhibits specific short-term responses to environmental inputs, it eventually adapts to a robust steady-state, largely independent of external conditions. Cycles of medium-switch show that the adapted state is imprinted in the population and that this memory is maintained for many generations. To further study population adaptation, we utilize the process of gene recruitment whereby a gene naturally regulated by a specific promoter is placed under a different regulatory system. This naturally occurring process has been recognized as a major driving force in evolution. We have recruited an essential gene to a foreign regulatory network and followed the population long-term dynamics. Rewiring of the regulatory network allows us to expose their complex dynamics and phase space structure.

Direct observation of frequency modulated transcription in single cells using light activation

PubMed Central

Larson, Daniel R; Fritzsch, Christoph; Sun, Liang; Meng, Xiuhau; Lawrence, David S; Singer, Robert H

2013-01-01

Single-cell analysis has revealed that transcription is dynamic and stochastic, but tools are lacking that can determine the mechanism operating at a single gene. Here we utilize single-molecule observations of RNA in fixed and living cells to develop a single-cell model of steroid-receptor mediated gene activation. We determine that steroids drive mRNA synthesis by frequency modulation of transcription. This digital behavior in single cells gives rise to the well-known analog dose response across the population. To test this model, we developed a light-activation technology to turn on a single steroid-responsive gene and follow dynamic synthesis of RNA from the activated locus. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00750.001 PMID:24069527

Shell productivity of the large benthic foraminifer Baculogypsina sphaerulata, based on the population dynamics in a tropical reef environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujita, Kazuhiko; Otomaru, Maki; Lopati, Paeniu; Hosono, Takashi; Kayanne, Hajime

2016-03-01

Carbonate production by large benthic foraminifers is sometimes comparable to that of corals and coralline algae, and contributes to sedimentation on reef islands and beaches in the tropical Pacific. Population dynamic data, such as population density and size structure (size-frequency distribution), are vital for an accurate estimation of shell production of foraminifers. However, previous production estimates in tropical environments were based on a limited sampling period with no consideration of seasonality. In addition, no comparisons were made of various estimation methods to determine more accurate estimates. Here we present the annual gross shell production rate of Baculogypsina sphaerulata, estimated based on population dynamics studied over a 2-yr period on an ocean reef flat of Funafuti Atoll (Tuvalu, tropical South Pacific). The population density of B. sphaerulata increased from January to March, when northwest winds predominated and the study site was on the leeward side of reef islands, compared to other seasons when southeast trade winds predominated and the study site was on the windward side. This result suggested that wind-driven flows controlled the population density at the study site. The B. sphaerulata population had a relatively stationary size-frequency distribution throughout the study period, indicating no definite intensive reproductive period in the tropical population. Four methods were applied to estimate the annual gross shell production rates of B. sphaerulata. The production rates estimated by three of the four methods (using monthly biomass, life tables and growth increment rates) were in the order of hundreds of g CaCO3 m-2 yr-1 or cm-3 m-2 yr-1, and the simple method using turnover rates overestimated the values. This study suggests that seasonal surveys should be undertaken of population density and size structure as these can produce more accurate estimates of shell productivity of large benthic foraminifers.

[A Cellular Automata Model for a Community Comprising Two Plant Species of Different Growth Forms].

PubMed

Frolov, P V; Zubkova, E V; Komarov, A S

2015-01-01

A cellular automata computer model for the interactions between two plant species of different growth forms--the lime hairgrass Deschampsia caespitosa (L.) P. Beauv., a sod cereal, and the moneywort Lysimachia nummularia L., a ground creeping perennial herb--is considered. Computer experiments on the self-maintenance of the populations of each species against the background of a gradual increase in the share of randomly eliminated individuals, coexistence of the populations of two species, and the effect of the phytogenous field have been conducted. As has been shown, all the studied factors determine the number of individuals and self-sustainability of the simulated populations by the degree of their impact. The limits of action have been determined for individual factors; within these limits, the specific features in plant reproduction and dispersal provide sustainable coexistence of the simulated populations. It has been demonstrated that the constructed model allows for studying the long-term developmental dynamics of the plants belonging to the selected growth forms.

Stellar Populations in Elliptical Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angeletti, Lucio; Giannone, Pietro

The R1/n law for the radial surface brightness of elliptical galaxies and the "Best Accretion Model" together with the "Concentration Model" have been combined in order to determine the mass and dynamical structure of largely-populated star systems. Families of models depending on four parameters have been used to fit the observed surface radial profiles of some spectro-photometric indices of a sample of eleven galaxies. We present the best agreements of the spectral index Mg2 with observations for three selected galaxies representative of the full sample. For them we have also computed the spatial distributions of the metal abundances, which are essential to achieve a population synthesis.

Mapping the conformational landscape of a dynamic enzyme by multitemperature and XFEL crystallography

DOE PAGES

Keedy, Daniel A.; Kenner, Lillian R.; Warkentin, Matthew; ...

2015-09-30

Determining the interconverting conformations of dynamic proteins in atomic detail is a major challenge for structural biology. Conformational heterogeneity in the active site of the dynamic enzyme cyclophilin A (CypA) has been previously linked to its catalytic function, but the extent to which the different conformations of these residues are correlated is unclear. Here we compare the conformational ensembles of CypA by multitemperature synchrotron crystallography and fixed-target X-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) crystallography. The diffraction-before-destruction nature of XFEL experiments provides a radiation-damage-free view of the functionally important alternative conformations of CypA, confirming earlier synchrotron-based results. We monitored the temperature dependences ofmore » these alternative conformations with eight synchrotron datasets spanning 100-310 K. Multiconformer models show that many alternative conformations in CypA are populated only at 240 K and above, yet others remain populated or become populated at 180 K and below. These results point to a complex evolution of conformational heterogeneity between 180-–240 K that involves both thermal deactivation and solvent-driven arrest of protein motions in the crystal. The lack of a single shared conformational response to temperature within the dynamic active-site network provides evidence for a conformation shuffling model, in which exchange between rotamer states of a large aromatic ring in the middle of the network shifts the conformational ensemble for the other residues in the network. Altogether, our multitemperature analyses and XFEL data motivate a new generation of temperature- and time-resolved experiments to structurally characterize the dynamic underpinnings of protein function.« less

Mapping the conformational landscape of a dynamic enzyme by multitemperature and XFEL crystallography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keedy, Daniel A.; Kenner, Lillian R.; Warkentin, Matthew

Determining the interconverting conformations of dynamic proteins in atomic detail is a major challenge for structural biology. Conformational heterogeneity in the active site of the dynamic enzyme cyclophilin A (CypA) has been previously linked to its catalytic function, but the extent to which the different conformations of these residues are correlated is unclear. Here we compare the conformational ensembles of CypA by multitemperature synchrotron crystallography and fixed-target X-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) crystallography. The diffraction-before-destruction nature of XFEL experiments provides a radiation-damage-free view of the functionally important alternative conformations of CypA, confirming earlier synchrotron-based results. We monitored the temperature dependences ofmore » these alternative conformations with eight synchrotron datasets spanning 100-310 K. Multiconformer models show that many alternative conformations in CypA are populated only at 240 K and above, yet others remain populated or become populated at 180 K and below. These results point to a complex evolution of conformational heterogeneity between 180-–240 K that involves both thermal deactivation and solvent-driven arrest of protein motions in the crystal. The lack of a single shared conformational response to temperature within the dynamic active-site network provides evidence for a conformation shuffling model, in which exchange between rotamer states of a large aromatic ring in the middle of the network shifts the conformational ensemble for the other residues in the network. Together, our multitemperature analyses and XFEL data motivate a new generation of temperature- and time-resolved experiments to structurally characterize the dynamic underpinnings of protein function.« less

Mapping the conformational landscape of a dynamic enzyme by multitemperature and XFEL crystallography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keedy, Daniel A.; Kenner, Lillian R.; Warkentin, Matthew

Determining the interconverting conformations of dynamic proteins in atomic detail is a major challenge for structural biology. Conformational heterogeneity in the active site of the dynamic enzyme cyclophilin A (CypA) has been previously linked to its catalytic function, but the extent to which the different conformations of these residues are correlated is unclear. Here we compare the conformational ensembles of CypA by multitemperature synchrotron crystallography and fixed-target X-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) crystallography. The diffraction-before-destruction nature of XFEL experiments provides a radiation-damage-free view of the functionally important alternative conformations of CypA, confirming earlier synchrotron-based results. We monitored the temperature dependences ofmore » these alternative conformations with eight synchrotron datasets spanning 100-310 K. Multiconformer models show that many alternative conformations in CypA are populated only at 240 K and above, yet others remain populated or become populated at 180 K and below. These results point to a complex evolution of conformational heterogeneity between 180-–240 K that involves both thermal deactivation and solvent-driven arrest of protein motions in the crystal. The lack of a single shared conformational response to temperature within the dynamic active-site network provides evidence for a conformation shuffling model, in which exchange between rotamer states of a large aromatic ring in the middle of the network shifts the conformational ensemble for the other residues in the network. Altogether, our multitemperature analyses and XFEL data motivate a new generation of temperature- and time-resolved experiments to structurally characterize the dynamic underpinnings of protein function.« less

Dynamic portrait of the region occupied by the Hungaria Asteroids: The influence of Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Correa-Otto, J. A.; Cañada-Assandri, M.

2018-06-01

The region occupied by the Hungaria asteroids has a high dynamical complexity. In this paper, we analyse the main dynamic structures and their influence on the known asteroids through the construction of maps of initial conditions. We evolve a set of test particles placed on a perfectly rectangular grid of initial conditions during 3 Myr under the gravitational influence of the Sun and eight planets, from Mercury to Neptune. Moreover, we use the method MEGNO in order to obtain a complete dynamical portrait of the region. A comparison of our maps with the distribution of real objects allows us to detect the main dynamical mechanisms acting in the domain under study such as mean-motion and secular resonances. Our main results is the existence of a small area inside a stable region where are placed the Hungaria asteroids. We found that the influence of Mars has an important role for the dynamic structure of the region, defining the limits for this population of asteroids. Our result is in agreement with previous studies, which have indicated the importance of the eccentricity of Mars for the stability of Hungaria asteroids. However, we found that the secular resonance resulting from the precession of perihelion due to a coupling with that of Jupiter proposed as limit for the Hungaria region could not be determinant for this population of asteroids.

Day-to-Day Dynamics of Commensal Escherichia coli in Zimbabwean Cows Evidence Temporal Fluctuations within a Host-Specific Population Structure.

PubMed

Massot, Méril; Couffignal, Camille; Clermont, Olivier; D'Humières, Camille; Chatel, Jérémie; Plault, Nicolas; Andremont, Antoine; Caron, Alexandre; Mentré, France; Denamur, Erick

2017-07-01

To get insights into the temporal pattern of commensal Escherichia coli populations, we sampled the feces of four healthy cows from the same herd in the Hwange District of Zimbabwe daily over 25 days. The cows had not received antibiotic treatment during the previous 3 months. We performed viable E. coli counts and characterized the 326 isolates originating from the 98 stool samples at a clonal level, screened them for stx and eae genes, and tested them for their antibiotic susceptibilities. We observed that E. coli counts and dominant clones were different among cows, and very few clones were shared. No clone was shared by three or four cows. Clone richness and evenness were not different between cows. Within each host, the variability in the E. coli count was evidenced between days, and no clone was found to be dominant during the entire sampling period, suggesting the existence of clonal interference. Dominant clones tended to persist longer than subdominant ones and were mainly from phylogenetic groups A and B1. Five E. coli clones were found to contain both the stx 1 and stx 2 genes, representing 6.3% of the studied isolates. All cows harbored at least one Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC) strain. Resistance to tetracycline, penicillins, trimethoprim, and sulfonamides was rare and observed in three clones that were shed at low levels in two cows. This study highlights the fact that the commensal E. coli population, including the STEC population, is host specific, is highly dynamic over a short time frame, and rarely carries antibiotic resistance determinants in the absence of antibiotic treatment. IMPORTANCE The literature about the dynamics of commensal Escherichia coli populations is very scarce. Over 25 days, we followed the total E. coli counts daily and characterized the sampled clones in the feces of four cows from the same herd living in the Hwange District of Zimbabwe. This study deals with the day-to-day dynamics of both quantitative and qualitative aspects of E. coli commensal populations, with a focus on both Shiga toxin-producing E. coli and antibiotic-resistant E. coli strains. We show that the structure of these commensal populations was highly specific to the host, even though the cows ate and roamed together, and was highly dynamic between days. Such data are of importance to understand the ecological forces that drive the dynamics of the emergence of E. coli clones of particular interest within the gastrointestinal tract and their transmission between hosts. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

An individual-based model of zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics.

PubMed

Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R R

2015-01-01

Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level.

An Individual-Based Model of Zebrafish Population Dynamics Accounting for Energy Dynamics

PubMed Central

Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R. R.

2015-01-01

Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level. PMID:25938409

The impact of rapid evolution on population dynamics in the wild: experimental test of eco-evolutionary dynamics.

PubMed

Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Hare, J Daniel

2011-11-01

Rapid evolution challenges the assumption that evolution is too slow to impact short-term ecological dynamics. This insight motivates the study of 'Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics' or how evolution and ecological processes reciprocally interact on short time scales. We tested how rapid evolution impacts concurrent population dynamics using an aphid (Myzus persicae) and an undomesticated host (Hirschfeldia incana) in replicated wild populations. We manipulated evolvability by creating non-evolving (single clone) and potentially evolving (two-clone) aphid populations that contained genetic variation in intrinsic growth rate. We observed significant evolution in two-clone populations whether or not they were exposed to predators and competitors. Evolving populations grew up to 42% faster and attained up to 67% higher density, compared with non-evolving control populations but only in treatments exposed to competitors and predators. Increased density also correlates with relative fitness of competing clones suggesting a full eco-evolutionary dynamic cycle defined as reciprocal interactions between evolution and density. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Experimental test of an eco-evolutionary dynamic feedback loop between evolution and population density in the green peach aphid.

PubMed

Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Daniel Hare, J

2013-05-01

An eco-evolutionary feedback loop is defined as the reciprocal impacts of ecology on evolutionary dynamics and evolution on ecological dynamics on contemporary timescales. We experimentally tested for an eco-evolutionary feedback loop in the green peach aphid, Myzus persicae, by manipulating initial densities and evolution. We found strong evidence that initial aphid density alters the rate and direction of evolution, as measured by changes in genotype frequencies through time. We also found that evolution of aphids within only 16 days, or approximately three generations, alters the rate of population growth and predicts density compared to nonevolving controls. The impact of evolution on population dynamics also depended on density. In one evolution treatment, evolution accelerated population growth by up to 10.3% at high initial density or reduced it by up to 6.4% at low initial density. The impact of evolution on population growth was as strong as or stronger than that caused by a threefold change in intraspecific density. We found that, taken together, ecological condition, here intraspecific density, alters evolutionary dynamics, which in turn alter concurrent population growth rate (ecological dynamics) in an eco-evolutionary feedback loop. Our results suggest that ignoring evolution in studies predicting population dynamics might lead us to over- or underestimate population density and that we cannot predict the evolutionary outcome within aphid populations without considering population size.

Individual heterogeneity generating explosive system network dynamics.

PubMed

Manrique, Pedro D; Johnson, Neil F

2018-03-01

Individual heterogeneity is a key characteristic of many real-world systems, from organisms to humans. However, its role in determining the system's collective dynamics is not well understood. Here we study how individual heterogeneity impacts the system network dynamics by comparing linking mechanisms that favor similar or dissimilar individuals. We find that this heterogeneity-based evolution drives an unconventional form of explosive network behavior, and it dictates how a polarized population moves toward consensus. Our model shows good agreement with data from both biological and social science domains. We conclude that individual heterogeneity likely plays a key role in the collective development of real-world networks and communities, and it cannot be ignored.

Coastal oceanography sets the pace of rocky intertidal community dynamics.

PubMed

Menge, B A; Lubchenco, J; Bracken, M E S; Chan, F; Foley, M M; Freidenburg, T L; Gaines, S D; Hudson, G; Krenz, C; Leslie, H; Menge, D N L; Russell, R; Webster, M S

2003-10-14

The structure of ecological communities reflects a tension among forces that alter populations. Marine ecologists previously emphasized control by locally operating forces (predation, competition, and disturbance), but newer studies suggest that inputs from large-scale oceanographically modulated subsidies (nutrients, particulates, and propagules) can strongly influence community structure and dynamics. On New Zealand rocky shores, the magnitude of such subsidies differs profoundly between contrasting oceanographic regimes. Community structure, and particularly the pace of community dynamics, differ dramatically between intermittent upwelling regimes compared with relatively persistent down-welling regimes. We suggest that subsidy rates are a key determinant of the intensity of species interactions, and thus of structure in marine systems, and perhaps also nonmarine communities.

Individual heterogeneity generating explosive system network dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manrique, Pedro D.; Johnson, Neil F.

2018-03-01

Individual heterogeneity is a key characteristic of many real-world systems, from organisms to humans. However, its role in determining the system's collective dynamics is not well understood. Here we study how individual heterogeneity impacts the system network dynamics by comparing linking mechanisms that favor similar or dissimilar individuals. We find that this heterogeneity-based evolution drives an unconventional form of explosive network behavior, and it dictates how a polarized population moves toward consensus. Our model shows good agreement with data from both biological and social science domains. We conclude that individual heterogeneity likely plays a key role in the collective development of real-world networks and communities, and it cannot be ignored.

Population dynamics of HIV-1 inferred from gene sequences.

PubMed Central

Grassly, N C; Harvey, P H; Holmes, E C

1999-01-01

A method for the estimation of population dynamic history from sequence data is described and used to investigate the past population dynamics of HIV-1 subtypes A and B. Using both gag and env gene alignments the effective population size of each subtype is estimated and found to be surprisingly small. This may be a result of the selective sweep of mutations through the population, or may indicate an important role of genetic drift in the fixation of mutations. The implications of these results for the spread of drug-resistant mutations and transmission dynamics, and also the roles of selection and recombination in shaping HIV-1 genetic diversity, are discussed. A larger estimated effective population size for subtype A may be the result of differences in time of origin, transmission dynamics, and/or population structure. To investigate the importance of population structure a model of population subdivision was fitted to each subtype, although the improvement in likelihood was found to be nonsignificant. PMID:9927440

Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

PubMed

Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

2014-11-01

Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10.5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean population size. Results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of a species over its range may be facilitated by taking the spatial structure of population size into account as well as by considering changes in population processes as a function of position within the range of the species. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Workshop held to discuss population connectivity in marine systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowen, Robert K.; Thorrold, Simon; Pineda, Jesus; Gawarkiewicz, Glen

A central goal of marine ecology is to achieve a mechanistic understanding of the factors regulating the abundance and distribution of marine populations. One critical component of the above goal is to quantify rates of exchange, or connectivity among sub-populations of marine organisms via larval dispersal. Theoretical studies suggest that these linkages play a fundamental role in local and meta-population dynamics, community structure, genetic diversity, and the resiliency of populations to human exploitation [Fogarty, 1998].Understanding population connectivity is also key in efforts to develop spatial management methods for marine-capture fisheries, including the design of networks of marine reserves [Sala et al., 2002]. We have made considerable advances in our understanding of the biology of juvenile and adult life history stages through experimental marine ecology However, there has been no concomitant increase in our knowledge of the biological and physical processes that determine the extent to which marine populations are connected via larval dispersal.

Geographic variation in density-dependent dynamics impacts the synchronizing effect of dispersal and regional stochasticity

Treesearch

Andrew M. Liebhold; Derek M. Johnson; Ottar N. Bj& #248rnstad

2006-01-01

Explanations for the ubiquitous presence of spatially synchronous population dynamics have assumed that density-dependent processes governing the dynamics of local populations are identical among disjunct populations, and low levels of dispersal or small amounts of regionalized stochasticity ("Moran effect") can act to synchronize populations. In this study...

Optimal control of Atlantic population Canada geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hauser, C.E.; Runge, M.C.; Cooch, E.G.; Johnson, F.A.; Harvey, W.F.

2007-01-01

Management of Canada geese (Branta canadensis) can be a balance between providing sustained harvest opportunity while not allowing populations to become overabundant and cause damage. In this paper, we focus on the Atlantic population of Canada geese and use stochastic dynamic programming to determine the optimal harvest strategy over a range of plausible models for population dynamics. There is evidence to suggest that the population exhibits significant age structure, and it is possible to reconstruct age structure from surveys. Consequently the harvest strategy is a function of the age composition, as well as the abundance, of the population. The objective is to maximize harvest while maintaining the number of breeding adults in the population between specified upper and lower limits. In addition, the total harvest capacity is limited and there is uncertainty about the strength of density-dependence. We find that under a density-independent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at the highest acceptable abundance. However if harvest capacity is limited, then the optimal long-term breeding population size is lower than the highest acceptable level, to reduce the risk of the population growing to an unacceptably large size. Under the proposed density-dependent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at an intermediate level between the bounds on acceptable population size; limits to harvest capacity have little effect on the optimal long-term population size. It is clear that the strength of density-dependence and constraints on harvest significantly affect the optimal harvest strategy for this population. Model discrimination might be achieved in the long term, while continuing to meet management goals, by adopting an adaptive management strategy.

Effect of dispersal at range edges on the structure of species ranges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bahn, V.; O'Connor, R.J.; Krohn, W.B.

2006-01-01

Range edges are of particular interest to ecology because they hold key insights into the limits of the realized niche and associated population dynamics. A recent feature of Oikos summarized the state of the art on range edge ecology. While the typical question is what causes range edges, another important question is how range edges influence the distribution of abundances across a species geographic range when dispersal is present. We used a single species population dynamics model on a coupled-lattice to determine the effects of dispersal on peripheral populations as compared to populations at the core of the range. In the absence of resource gradients, the reduced neighborhood and thus lower connectivity or higher isolation among populations at the range edge alone led to significantly lower population sizes in the periphery of the range than in the core. Lower population sizes mean higher extinction risks and lower adaptability at the range edge, which could inhibit or slow range expansions, and thus effectively stabilize range edges. The strength of this effect depended on the potential population growth rate and the maximum dispersal distance. Lower potential population growth rates led to a stronger effect of dispersal resulting in a higher difference in population sizes between the two areas. The differential effect of dispersal on population sizes at the core and periphery of the range in the absence of resource gradients implies that traditional, habitat-based distribution models could result in misleading conclusions about the habitat quality in the periphery. Lower population sizes at the periphery are also relevant to conservation, because habitat removal not only eliminates populations but also creates new edges. Populations bordering these new edges may experience declines, due to their increased isolation. ?? OIKOS.

Evolutionary genetics of maternal effects

PubMed Central

Wolf, Jason B.; Wade, Michael J.

2016-01-01

Maternal genetic effects (MGEs), where genes expressed by mothers affect the phenotype of their offspring, are important sources of phenotypic diversity in a myriad of organisms. We use a single‐locus model to examine how MGEs contribute patterns of heritable and nonheritable variation and influence evolutionary dynamics in randomly mating and inbreeding populations. We elucidate the influence of MGEs by examining the offspring genotype‐phenotype relationship, which determines how MGEs affect evolutionary dynamics in response to selection on offspring phenotypes. This approach reveals important results that are not apparent from classic quantitative genetic treatments of MGEs. We show that additive and dominance MGEs make different contributions to evolutionary dynamics and patterns of variation, which are differentially affected by inbreeding. Dominance MGEs make the offspring genotype‐phenotype relationship frequency dependent, resulting in the appearance of negative frequency‐dependent selection, while additive MGEs contribute a component of parent‐of‐origin dependent variation. Inbreeding amplifies the contribution of MGEs to the additive genetic variance and, therefore enhances their evolutionary response. Considering evolutionary dynamics of allele frequency change on an adaptive landscape, we show that this landscape differs from the mean fitness surface, and therefore, under some condition, fitness peaks can exist but not be “available” to the evolving population. PMID:26969266

Mathematical Modelling as a Tool to Understand Cell Self-renewal and Differentiation.

PubMed

Getto, Philipp; Marciniak-Czochra, Anna

2015-01-01

Mathematical modeling is a powerful technique to address key questions and paradigms in a variety of complex biological systems and can provide quantitative insights into cell kinetics, fate determination and development of cell populations. The chapter is devoted to a review of modeling of the dynamics of stem cell-initiated systems using mathematical methods of ordinary differential equations. Some basic concepts and tools for cell population dynamics are summarized and presented as a gentle introduction to non-mathematicians. The models take into account different plausible mechanisms regulating homeostasis. Two mathematical frameworks are proposed reflecting, respectively, a discrete (punctuated by division events) and a continuous character of transitions between differentiation stages. Advantages and constraints of the mathematical approaches are presented on examples of models of blood systems and compared to patients data on healthy hematopoiesis.

Intra- and inter-population variability and evaluation of the physical development of a young generation.

PubMed

Yampolskaya, Yulia A

2005-07-01

This study is concerned with long-term anthropometric examinations of children and adolescents aged 3-17 years in Moscow (over 10,500 persons, longitudinal and cross-sectional). Population variability of physical development was analyzed by means of regional estimation tables, which were developed on the basis of a regression analysis (scale of the regression of body mass to body length within a range from M - 1sigmaR to M + 2 sigmaR) and used for individual and group diagnostics taking into account age and sex. Such an approach allowed for the determination of the dynamics of the variability of Moscow schoolchildren from decade to decade (inter-population variability) and variations due to social differences (intra-population variability).

Patterns of fish assemblage structure and dynamics in waters of the Savannah River Plant. Comprehensive Cooling Water Study final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aho, J.M.; Anderson, C.S.; Floyd, K.B.

1986-06-01

Research conducted as part of the Comprehensive Cooling Water Study (CCWS) has elucidated many factors that are important to fish population and community dynamics in a variety of habitats on the Savannah River Plant (SRP). Information gained from these studies is useful in predicting fish responses to SRP operations. The overall objective of the CCWS was (1) to determine the environmental effects of SRP cooling water withdrawals and discharges and (2) to determine the significance of the cooling water impacts on the environment. The purpose of this study was to: (1) examine the effects of thermal plumes on anadromous andmore » resident fishes, including overwintering effects, in the SRP swamp and associated tributary streams; (2) assess fish spawning and locate nursery grounds on the SRP; (3) examine the level of use of the SRP by spawning fish from the Savannah River, this objective was shared with the Savannah River Laboratory, E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company; and (4) determine impacts of cooling-water discharges on fish population and community attributes. Five studies were designed to address the above topics. The specific objectives and a summary of the findings of each study are presented.« less

WKB theory of large deviations in stochastic populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Assaf, Michael; Meerson, Baruch

2017-06-01

Stochasticity can play an important role in the dynamics of biologically relevant populations. These span a broad range of scales: from intra-cellular populations of molecules to population of cells and then to groups of plants, animals and people. Large deviations in stochastic population dynamics—such as those determining population extinction, fixation or switching between different states—are presently in a focus of attention of statistical physicists. We review recent progress in applying different variants of dissipative WKB approximation (after Wentzel, Kramers and Brillouin) to this class of problems. The WKB approximation allows one to evaluate the mean time and/or probability of population extinction, fixation and switches resulting from either intrinsic (demographic) noise, or a combination of the demographic noise and environmental variations, deterministic or random. We mostly cover well-mixed populations, single and multiple, but also briefly consider populations on heterogeneous networks and spatial populations. The spatial setting also allows one to study large fluctuations of the speed of biological invasions. Finally, we briefly discuss possible directions of future work.

Dark state population determines magnetic sensitivity in radical pair magnetoreception model.

PubMed

Xu, Bao-Ming; Zou, Jian

2016-03-01

What is the real role of the quantum coherence and entanglement in the radical pair (RP) compass, and what determines the singlet yield have not been fully understood. In this paper, we find that the dark states of the two-electron Zeeman energy operator (TEZE) play an important role in the RP compass. We respectively calculate the singlet yields for two initial states in this dark state basis: the coherent state and the same state just removing the dark state coherence. For the later there is neither dark state coherence nor entanglement in the whole dynamical process. Surprisingly we find that in both cases the singlet yields are the same, and based on this result, we believe that the dark state population determines the singlet yield completely, and the dark state coherence and entanglement have little contribution to it. Finally, we also find that the dark state population as well as the singlet yield anisotropy is fragile to the vertical magnetic noise. However, the orientation is robust and is even enhanced by the parallel magnetic noise because the dark states expand a decoherence-free subspace. The dark state population as well as the orientation is more robust to the hyperfine coupling noise.

Effects of seven diets on the population dynamics of laboratory cultured Tisbe holothuriae Humes (Copepoda, Harpacticoida)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miliou, H.; Moraïtou-Apostolopoulou, M.

1991-09-01

The harpacticoid copepod Tisbe holothuriae was collected from Saronicos Gulf (Greece) and reared under constant laboratory conditions. In order to study the effects of food on the population dynamics, seven diets were tested: the seaweed Ulva; five artificial compound feeds: the liquid Fryfood® (Waterlife), a powder of Mytilus, yeast, soya and Spirulina, respectively; and a mixed diet consisting of Ulva and Fryfood. The life cycle parameters (mortality, sex ratio, generation time, offspring production) were measured, and the demographic variables [mean generation time (T), net reproductive rate (Ro), and intrinsic rate of natural increase (rm)] were determined. As to their efficiency regarding population dynamics, the diets ranked as follows: (1) Ulva+Fryfood, (2), Ulva, (3) Fryfood, (4) Mytilus, (5) soya, (6) yeast, and (7) Spirulina. In this order they cause a progressive increase of both larval mortality and generation time, a progressive decrease of sex ratio, number of offspring per egg sac, number of egg sacs per female and, consequently, of Ro and rm. The observed differences between diets were most pronounced with respect to offspring production. Of the compound diets, those containing animal extracts were more efficient than those containing vegetable materials. Ulva plays an important role in the nutrition of T. holothuriae, favouring offspring production as well as larval survival, development and pigmentation. Ulva in combination with Fryfood led to a greater copepodid survival and offspring production. This mixed diet proved to be the most favourable for rearing the Greek population of t. holothuriae, resulting in an efficient intrinsic rate of natural increase (rm=0.304) of the population.

Spatial structure and nutrients promote invasion of IncP-1 plasmids in bacterial populations

PubMed Central

Fox, Randal E; Zhong, Xue; Krone, Stephen M; Top, Eva M

2008-01-01

In spite of the importance of plasmids in bacterial adaptation, we have a poor understanding of their dynamics. It is not known if or how plasmids persist in and spread through (invade) a bacterial population when there is no selection for plasmid-encoded traits. Moreover, the differences in dynamics between spatially structured and mixed populations are poorly understood. Through a joint experimental/theoretical approach, we tested the hypothesis that self-transmissible IncP-1 plasmids can invade a bacterial population in the absence of selection when initially very rare, but only in spatially structured habitats and when nutrients are regularly replenished. Using protocols that differed in the degree of spatial structure and nutrient levels, the invasiveness of plasmid pB10 in Escherichia coli was monitored during at least 15 days, with an initial fraction of plasmid-bearing (p+) cells as low as 10−7. To further explore the mechanisms underlying plasmid dynamics, we developed a spatially explicit mathematical model. When cells were grown on filters and transferred to fresh medium daily, the p+ fraction increased to 13%, whereas almost complete invasion occurred when the population structure was disturbed daily. The plasmid was unable to invade in liquid. When carbon source levels were lower or not replenished, plasmid invasion was hampered. Simulations of the mathematical model closely matched the experimental results and produced estimates of the effects of alternative experimental parameters. This allowed us to isolate the likely mechanisms most responsible for the observations. In conclusion, spatial structure and nutrient availability can be key determinants in the invasiveness of plasmids. PMID:18528415

Adaptive Dynamics of Extortion and Compliance

PubMed Central

Hilbe, Christian; Nowak, Martin A.; Traulsen, Arne

2013-01-01

Direct reciprocity is a mechanism for the evolution of cooperation. For the iterated prisoner’s dilemma, a new class of strategies has recently been described, the so-called zero-determinant strategies. Using such a strategy, a player can unilaterally enforce a linear relationship between his own payoff and the co-player’s payoff. In particular the player may act in such a way that it becomes optimal for the co-player to cooperate unconditionally. In this way, a player can manipulate and extort his co-player, thereby ensuring that the own payoff never falls below the co-player’s payoff. However, using a compliant strategy instead, a player can also ensure that his own payoff never exceeds the co-player’s payoff. Here, we use adaptive dynamics to study when evolution leads to extortion and when it leads to compliance. We find a remarkable cyclic dynamics: in sufficiently large populations, extortioners play a transient role, helping the population to move from selfish strategies to compliance. Compliant strategies, however, can be subverted by altruists, which in turn give rise to selfish strategies. Whether cooperative strategies are favored in the long run critically depends on the size of the population; we show that cooperation is most abundant in large populations, in which case average payoffs approach the social optimum. Our results are not restricted to the case of the prisoners dilemma, but can be extended to other social dilemmas, such as the snowdrift game. Iterated social dilemmas in large populations do not lead to the evolution of strategies that aim to dominate their co-player. Instead, generosity succeeds. PMID:24223739

Preface of the "Symposium on Mathematical Models and Methods to investigate Heterogeneity in Cell and Cell Population Biology"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clairambault, Jean

2016-06-01

This session investigates hot topics related to mathematical representations of cell and cell population dynamics in biology and medicine, in particular, but not only, with applications to cancer. Methods in mathematical modelling and analysis, and in statistical inference using single-cell and cell population data, should contribute to focus this session on heterogeneity in cell populations. Among other methods are proposed: a) Intracellular protein dynamics and gene regulatory networks using ordinary/partial/delay differential equations (ODEs, PDEs, DDEs); b) Representation of cell population dynamics using agent-based models (ABMs) and/or PDEs; c) Hybrid models and multiscale models to integrate single-cell dynamics into cell population behaviour; d) Structured cell population dynamics and asymptotic evolution w.r.t. relevant traits; e) Heterogeneity in cancer cell populations: origin, evolution, phylogeny and methods of reconstruction; f) Drug resistance as an evolutionary phenotype: predicting and overcoming it in therapeutics; g) Theoretical therapeutic optimisation of combined drug treatments in cancer cell populations and in populations of other organisms, such as bacteria.

Effects of habitat fragmentation on passerine birds breeding in Intermountain shrubsteppe

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knick, S.T.; Rotenberry, J.T.

2002-01-01

Habitat fragmentation and loss strongly influence the distribution and abundance of passerine birds breeding in Intermountain shrubsteppe. Wildfires, human activities, and change in vegetation communities often are synergistic in these systems and can result in radical conversion from shrubland to grasslands dominated by exotic annuals at large temporal and spatial scales from which recovery to native conditions is unlikely. As a result, populations of 5 of the 12 species in our review of Intermountain shrubsteppe birds are undergoing significant declines; 5 species are listed as at-risk or as candidates for protection in at least one state. The process by which fragmentation affects bird distributions in these habitats remains unknown because most research has emphasized the detection of population trends and patterns of habitat associations at relatively large spatial scales. Our research indicates that the distribution of shrubland-obligate species, such as Brewer's Sparrows (Spizella breweri), Sage Sparrows (Amphispiza belli), and Sage Thrashers (Oreoscoptes montanus), was highly sensitive to fragmentation of shrublands at spatial scales larger than individual home ranges. In contrast, the underlying mechanisms for both habitat change and bird population dynamics may operate independently of habitat boundaries. We propose alternative, but not necessarily exclusive, mechanisms to explain the relationship between habitat fragmentation and bird distribution and abundance. Fragmentation might influence productivity through differences in breeding density, nesting success, or predation. However, local and landscape variables were not significant determinants either of success, number fledged, or probability of predation or parasitism (although our tests had relatively low statistical power). Alternatively, relative absence of natal philopatry and redistribution by individuals among habitats following fledging or post-migration could account for the pattern of distribution and abundance. Thus, boundary dynamics may be important in determining the distribution of shrubland-obligate species but insignificant relative to the mechanisms causing the pattern of habitat and bird distribution. Because of the dichotomy in responses, Intermountain shrubsteppe systems present a unique challenge in understanding how landscape composition, configuration, and change influence bird population dynamics.

Rabies disease dynamics in naïve dog populations in Australia.

PubMed

Sparkes, Jessica; McLeod, Steven; Ballard, Guy; Fleming, Peter J S; Körtner, Gerhard; Brown, Wendy Y

2016-09-01

Currently, Australia is free from terrestrial rabies but an incursion from nearby Indonesia, where the virus is endemic, is a feasible threat. Here, we aimed to determine whether the response to a simulated rabies incursion would vary between three extant Australian dog populations; free-roaming domestic dogs from a remote indigenous community in northern Australia, and free-roaming domestic and wild dogs in peri-urban areas of north-east New South Wales. We further sought to predict how different management strategies impacted disease dynamics in these populations. We used simple stochastic state-transition models and dog demographic and contact rate data from the three dog populations to simulate rabies spread, and used global and local sensitivity analyses to determine effects of model parameters. To identify the most effective control options, dog removal and vaccination strategies were also simulated. Responses to simulated rabies incursions varied between the dog populations. Free-roaming domestic dogs from north-east New South Wales exhibited the lowest risk for rabies maintenance and spread. Due to low containment and high contact rates, rabies progressed rapidly through free-roaming dogs from the remote indigenous community in northern Australia. In contrast, rabies remained at relatively low levels within the north-east New South Wales wild dog population for over a year prior to an epidemic. Across all scenarios, sensitivity analyses revealed that contact rates and the probability of transmission were the most important drivers of the number of infectious individuals within a population. The number of infectious individuals was less sensitive to birth and death rates. Removal of dogs as a control strategy was not effective for any population modelled, while vaccination rates in excess of 70% of the population resulted in significant reductions in disease progression. The variability in response between these distinct dog groups to a rabies incursion, suggests that a blanket approach to management would not be effective or feasible to control rabies in Australia. Control strategies that take into account the different population and behavioural characteristics of these dog groups will maximise the likelihood of effective and efficient rabies control in Australia. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting population dynamics from the properties of individuals: a cross-level test of dynamic energy budget theory.

PubMed

Martin, Benjamin T; Jager, Tjalling; Nisbet, Roger M; Preuss, Thomas G; Grimm, Volker

2013-04-01

Individual-based models (IBMs) are increasingly used to link the dynamics of individuals to higher levels of biological organization. Still, many IBMs are data hungry, species specific, and time-consuming to develop and analyze. Many of these issues would be resolved by using general theories of individual dynamics as the basis for IBMs. While such theories have frequently been examined at the individual level, few cross-level tests exist that also try to predict population dynamics. Here we performed a cross-level test of dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory by parameterizing an individual-based model using individual-level data of the water flea, Daphnia magna, and comparing the emerging population dynamics to independent data from population experiments. We found that DEB theory successfully predicted population growth rates and peak densities but failed to capture the decline phase. Further assumptions on food-dependent mortality of juveniles were needed to capture the population dynamics after the initial population peak. The resulting model then predicted, without further calibration, characteristic switches between small- and large-amplitude cycles, which have been observed for Daphnia. We conclude that cross-level tests help detect gaps in current individual-level theories and ultimately will lead to theory development and the establishment of a generic basis for individual-based models and ecology.

Larval connectivity of pearl oyster through biophysical modelling; evidence of food limitation and broodstock effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Yoann; Dumas, Franck; Andréfouët, Serge

2016-12-01

The black-lip pearl oyster (Pinctada margaritifera) is cultured extensively to produce black pearls, especially in French Polynesia atoll lagoons. This aquaculture relies on spat collection, a process that experiences spatial and temporal variability and needs to be optimized by understanding which factors influence recruitment. Here, we investigate the sensitivity of P. margaritifera larval dispersal to both physical and biological factors in the lagoon of Ahe atoll. Coupling a validated 3D larval dispersal model, a bioenergetics larval growth model following the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory, and a population dynamics model, the variability of lagoon-scale connectivity patterns and recruitment potential is investigated. The relative contribution of reared and wild broodstock to the lagoon-scale recruitment potential is also investigated. Sensitivity analyses pointed out the major effect of the broodstock population structure as well as the sensitivity to larval mortality rate and inter-individual growth variability to larval supply and to the subsequent settlement potential. The application of the growth model clarifies how trophic conditions determine the larval supply and connectivity patterns. These results provide new cues to understand the dynamics of bottom-dwelling populations in atoll lagoons, their recruitment, and discuss how to take advantage of these findings and numerical models for pearl oyster management.

Using Dynamic Stochastic Modelling to Estimate Population Risk Factors in Infectious Disease: The Example of FIV in 15 Cat Populations

PubMed Central

Fouchet, David; Leblanc, Guillaume; Sauvage, Frank; Guiserix, Micheline; Poulet, Hervé; Pontier, Dominique

2009-01-01

Background In natural cat populations, Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV) is transmitted through bites between individuals. Factors such as the density of cats within the population or the sex-ratio can have potentially strong effects on the frequency of fight between individuals and hence appear as important population risk factors for FIV. Methodology/Principal Findings To study such population risk factors, we present data on FIV prevalence in 15 cat populations in northeastern France. We investigate five key social factors of cat populations; the density of cats, the sex-ratio, the number of males and the mean age of males and females within the population. We overcome the problem of dependence in the infective status data using sexually-structured dynamic stochastic models. Only the age of males and females had an effect (p = 0.043 and p = 0.02, respectively) on the male-to-female transmission rate. Due to multiple tests, it is even likely that these effects are, in reality, not significant. Finally we show that, in our study area, the data can be explained by a very simple model that does not invoke any risk factor. Conclusion Our conclusion is that, in host-parasite systems in general, fluctuations due to stochasticity in the transmission process are naturally very large and may alone explain a larger part of the variability in observed disease prevalence between populations than previously expected. Finally, we determined confidence intervals for the simple model parameters that can be used to further aid in management of the disease. PMID:19888418

Population dynamics of Aphis gossypii Glover and in sole and intercropping systems of cotton and cowpea.

PubMed

Fernandes, Francisco S; Godoy, Wesley A C; Ramalho, Francisco S; Garcia, Adriano G; Santos, Bárbara D B; Malaquias, José B

2018-01-01

Population dynamics of aphids have been studied in sole and intercropping systems. These studies have required the use of more precise analytical tools in order to better understand patterns in quantitative data. Mathematical models are among the most important tools to explain the dynamics of insect populations. This study investigated the population dynamics of aphids Aphis gossypii and Aphis craccivora over time, using mathematical models composed of a set of differential equations as a helpful analytical tool to understand the population dynamics of aphids in arrangements of cotton and cowpea. The treatments were sole cotton, sole cowpea, and three arrangements of cotton intercropped with cowpea (t1, t2 and t3). The plants were infested with two aphid species and were evaluated at 7, 14, 28, 35, 42, and 49 days after the infestations. Mathematical models were used to fit the population dynamics of two aphid species. There were good fits for aphid dynamics by mathematical model over time. The highest population peak of both species A. gossypii and A. craccivora was found in the sole crops, and the lowest population peak was found in crop system t2. These results are important for integrated management programs of aphids in cotton and cowpea.

The Role of Clonal Interference in the Evolutionary Dynamics of Plasmid-Host Adaptation

PubMed Central

Hughes, Julie M.; Lohman, Brian K.; Deckert, Gail E.; Nichols, Eric P.; Settles, Matt; Abdo, Zaid; Top, Eva M.

2012-01-01

ABSTRACT Promiscuous plasmids replicate in a wide range of bacteria and therefore play a key role in the dissemination of various host-beneficial traits, including antibiotic resistance. Despite the medical relevance, little is known about the evolutionary dynamics through which drug resistance plasmids adapt to new hosts and thereby persist in the absence of antibiotics. We previously showed that the incompatibility group P-1 (IncP-1) minireplicon pMS0506 drastically improved its stability in novel host Shewanella oneidensis MR-1 after 1,000 generations under antibiotic selection for the plasmid. The only mutations found were those affecting the N terminus of the plasmid replication initiation protein TrfA1. Our aim in this study was to gain insight into the dynamics of plasmid evolution. Changes in stability and genotype frequencies of pMS0506 were monitored in evolving populations of MR-1 (pMS0506). Genotypes were determined by sequencing trfA1 amplicons from individual clones and by 454 pyrosequencing of whole plasmids from entire populations. Stability of pMS0506 drastically improved by generation 200. Many evolved plasmid genotypes with point mutations as well as in-frame and frameshift deletions and duplications in trfA1 were observed in all lineages with both sequencing methods. Strikingly, multiple genotypes were simultaneously present at high frequencies (>10%) in each population. Their relative abundances changed over time, but after 1,000 generations only one or two genotypes dominated the populations. This suggests that hosts with different plasmid genotypes were competing with each other, thus affecting the evolutionary trajectory. Plasmids can thus rapidly improve their stability, and clonal interference plays a significant role in plasmid-host adaptation dynamics. PMID:22761390

Hierarchical patterns of symbiotic orchid germination linked to adult proximity and environmental gradients

Treesearch

Jeffrey M. Diez

2007-01-01

The recruitment stage can be critical in determining plant population dynamics, as juveniles encounter a range of abiotic and biotic stressors in the environments where they land after dispersal, and often experience high mortality rates. Although both abiotic and biotic constraints on recruitment are often assumed to operate at multiple scales, these relationships are...

THE ROLE OF AVIAN HOST DYNAMICS AND ANTHROPOGENIC STRESSORS ON THE TRANSMISSION OF WEST NILE VIRUS AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR HUMAN HEALTH AND BIODIVERSITY

EPA Science Inventory

Our multidisciplinary approach will allow for an understanding of how ecological changes affect arbovirus infection and distribution and help determine the impact of WNV on both host and human populations. By comparing models of predicted prevalence to actual changes in WNV tr...

Direct 17O dynamic nuclear polarization of single-site heterogeneous catalysts

DOE PAGES

Perras, Frédéric A.; Boteju, Kasuni C.; Slowing, Igor I.; ...

2018-03-13

In this work, we utilize direct 17O DNP for the characterization of non-protonated oxygens in heterogeneous catalysts. The optimal sample preparation and population transfer approach for 17O direct DNP experiments performed on silica surfaces is determined and applied to the characterization of Zr- and Y-based mesoporous silica-supported single-site catalysts.

Comparing models of Red Knot population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.

2015-01-01

Predictive population modeling contributes to our basic scientific understanding of population dynamics, but can also inform management decisions by evaluating alternative actions in virtual environments. Quantitative models mathematically reflect scientific hypotheses about how a system functions. In Delaware Bay, mid-Atlantic Coast, USA, to more effectively manage horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) harvests and protect Red Knot (Calidris canutus rufa) populations, models are used to compare harvest actions and predict the impacts on crab and knot populations. Management has been chiefly driven by the core hypothesis that horseshoe crab egg abundance governs the survival and reproduction of migrating Red Knots that stopover in the Bay during spring migration. However, recently, hypotheses proposing that knot dynamics are governed by cyclical lemming dynamics garnered some support in data analyses. In this paper, I present alternative models of Red Knot population dynamics to reflect alternative hypotheses. Using 2 models with different lemming population cycle lengths and 2 models with different horseshoe crab effects, I project the knot population into the future under environmental stochasticity and parametric uncertainty with each model. I then compare each model's predictions to 10 yr of population monitoring from Delaware Bay. Using Bayes' theorem and model weight updating, models can accrue weight or support for one or another hypothesis of population dynamics. With 4 models of Red Knot population dynamics and only 10 yr of data, no hypothesis clearly predicted population count data better than another. The collapsed lemming cycle model performed best, accruing ~35% of the model weight, followed closely by the horseshoe crab egg abundance model, which accrued ~30% of the weight. The models that predicted no decline or stable populations (i.e. the 4-yr lemming cycle model and the weak horseshoe crab effect model) were the most weakly supported.

Considering transient population dynamics in the conservation of slow life-history species: An application to the sandhill crane

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, Brian D.; Kendall, William L.

2016-01-01

The importance of transient dynamics of structured populations is increasingly recognized in ecology, yet these implications are not largely considered in conservation practices. We investigate transient and long-term population dynamics to demonstrate the process and utility of incorporating transient dynamics into conservation research and to better understand the population management of slow life-history species; these species can be theoretically highly sensitive to short- and long-term transient effects. We are specifically interested in the effects of anthropogenic removal of individuals from populations, such as caused by harvest, poaching, translocation, or incidental take. We use the sandhill crane (Grus canadensis) as an exemplar species; it is long-lived, has low reproduction, late maturity, and multiple populations are subject to sport harvest. We found sandhill cranes to have extremely high potential, but low likelihood for transient dynamics, even when the population is being harvested. The typically low population growth rate of slow life-history species appears to buffer against many perturbations causing large transient effects. Transient dynamics will dominate population trajectories of these species when stage structures are highly biased towards the younger and non-reproducing individuals, a situation that may be rare in established populations of long-lived animals. However, short-term transient population growth can be highly sensitive to vital rates that are relatively insensitive under equilibrium, suggesting that stage structure should be known if perturbation analysis is used to identify effective conservation strategies. For populations of slow life-history species that are not prone to large perturbations to their most productive individuals, population growth may be approximated by equilibrium dynamics.

Climate-based models for pulsed resources improve predictability of consumer population dynamics: outbreaks of house mice in forest ecosystems.

PubMed

Holland, E Penelope; James, Alex; Ruscoe, Wendy A; Pech, Roger P; Byrom, Andrea E

2015-01-01

Accurate predictions of the timing and magnitude of consumer responses to episodic seeding events (masts) are important for understanding ecosystem dynamics and for managing outbreaks of invasive species generated by masts. While models relating consumer populations to resource fluctuations have been developed successfully for a range of natural and modified ecosystems, a critical gap that needs addressing is better prediction of resource pulses. A recent model used change in summer temperature from one year to the next (ΔT) for predicting masts for forest and grassland plants in New Zealand. We extend this climate-based method in the framework of a model for consumer-resource dynamics to predict invasive house mouse (Mus musculus) outbreaks in forest ecosystems. Compared with previous mast models based on absolute temperature, the ΔT method for predicting masts resulted in an improved model for mouse population dynamics. There was also a threshold effect of ΔT on the likelihood of an outbreak occurring. The improved climate-based method for predicting resource pulses and consumer responses provides a straightforward rule of thumb for determining, with one year's advance warning, whether management intervention might be required in invaded ecosystems. The approach could be applied to consumer-resource systems worldwide where climatic variables are used to model the size and duration of resource pulses, and may have particular relevance for ecosystems where global change scenarios predict increased variability in climatic events.

Trait-based Modeling of Larval Dispersal in the Gulf of Maine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, B.; Richardson, D.; Follows, M. J.; Hill, C. N.; Solow, A.; Ji, R.

2016-02-01

Population connectivity of marine species is the inter-generational movement of individuals among geographically separated subpopulations and is a crucial determinant of population dynamics, community structure, and optimal management strategies. For many marine species, population connectivity is largely determined by the dispersal patterns that emerge from a pelagic larval phase. These dispersal patterns are a result of interactions between the physical environment, adult spawning strategy, and larval ecology. Using a generalized trait-based model that represents the adult spawning strategy as a distribution of larval releases in time and space and the larval trait space with the pelagic larval duration, vertical swimming behavior, and settlement habitat preferences, we simulate dispersal patterns in the Gulf of Maine and surrounding regions. We implement this model as an individual-based simulation that tracks Lagrangian particles on a graphics processing unit as they move through hourly archived output from the Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model. The particles are released between the Hudson Canyon and Nova Scotia and the release distributions are determined using a novel method that minimizes the number of simulations required to achieve a predetermined level of precision for the connectivity matrices. The simulated larvae have a variable pelagic larval duration and exhibit multiple forms of dynamic depth-keeping behavior. We describe how these traits influence the dispersal trajectories and connectivity patterns among regions in the northwest Atlantic. Our description includes the probability of successful recruitment, patchiness of larval distributions, and the variability of these properties in time and space under a variety of larval dispersal strategies.

Modeling population dynamics of mitochondria in mammalian cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kornick, Kellianne; Das, Moumita

Mitochondria are organelles located inside eukaryotic cells and are essential for several key cellular processes such as energy (ATP) production, cell signaling, differentiation, and apoptosis. All organisms are believed to have low levels of variation in mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), and alterations in mtDNA are connected to a range of human health conditions, including epilepsy, heart failure, Parkinsons disease, diabetes, and multiple sclerosis. Therefore, understanding how changes in mtDNA accumulate over time and are correlated to changes in mitochondrial function and cell properties can have a profound impact on our understanding of cell physiology and the origins of some diseases. Motivated by this, we develop and study a mathematical model to determine which cellular parameters have the largest impact on mtDNA population dynamics. The model consists of coupled ODEs to describe subpopulations of healthy and dysfunctional mitochondria subject to mitochondrial fission, fusion, autophagy, and mutation. We study the time evolution and stability of each sub-population under specific selection biases and pressures by tuning specific terms in our model. Our results may provide insights into how sub-populations of mitochondria survive and evolve under different selection pressures. This work was supported by a Grant from the Moore Foundation.

The effect of travel loss on evolutionarily stable distributions of populations in space.

PubMed

Deangelis, Donald L; Wolkowicz, Gail S K; Lou, Yuan; Jiang, Yuexin; Novak, Mark; Svanbäck, Richard; Araújo, Márcio S; Jo, Youngseung; Cleary, Erin A

2011-07-01

A key assumption of the ideal free distribution (IFD) is that there are no costs in moving between habitat patches. However, because many populations exhibit more or less continuous population movement between patches and traveling cost is a frequent factor, it is important to determine the effects of costs on expected population movement patterns and spatial distributions. We consider a food chain (tritrophic or bitrophic) in which one species moves between patches, with energy cost or mortality risk in movement. In the two-patch case, assuming forced movement in one direction, an evolutionarily stable strategy requires bidirectional movement, even if costs during movement are high. In the N-patch case, assuming that at least one patch is linked bidirectionally to all other patches, optimal movement rates can lead to source-sink dynamics where patches with negative growth rates are maintained by other patches with positive growth rates. As well, dispersal between patches is not balanced (even in the two-patch case), leading to a deviation from the IFD. Our results indicate that cost-associated forced movement can have important consequences for spatial metapopulation dynamics. Relevance to marine reserve design and the study of stream communities subject to drift is discussed.

The dynamics of sex ratio evolution: from the gene perspective to multilevel selection.

PubMed

Argasinski, Krzysztof

2013-01-01

The new dynamical game theoretic model of sex ratio evolution emphasizes the role of males as passive carriers of sex ratio genes. This shows inconsistency between population genetic models of sex ratio evolution and classical strategic models. In this work a novel technique of change of coordinates will be applied to the new model. This will reveal new aspects of the modelled phenomenon which cannot be shown or proven in the original formulation. The underlying goal is to describe the dynamics of selection of particular genes in the entire population, instead of in the same sex subpopulation, as in the previous paper and earlier population genetics approaches. This allows for analytical derivation of the unbiased strategic model from the model with rigorous non-simplified genetics. In effect, an alternative system of replicator equations is derived. It contains two subsystems: the first describes changes in gene frequencies (this is an alternative unbiased formalization of the Fisher-Dusing argument), whereas the second describes changes in the sex ratios in subpopulations of carriers of genes for each strategy. An intriguing analytical result of this work is that the fitness of a gene depends on the current sex ratio in the subpopulation of its carriers, not on the encoded individual strategy. Thus, the argument of the gene fitness function is not constant but is determined by the trajectory of the sex ratio among carriers of that gene. This aspect of the modelled phenomenon cannot be revealed by the static analysis. Dynamics of the sex ratio among gene carriers is driven by a dynamic "tug of war" between female carriers expressing the encoded strategic trait value and random partners of male carriers expressing the average population strategy (a primary sex ratio). This mechanism can be called "double-level selection". Therefore, gene interest perspective leads to multi-level selection.

Stochastic gain in finite populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Röhl, Torsten; Traulsen, Arne; Claussen, Jens Christian; Schuster, Heinz Georg

2008-08-01

Flexible learning rates can lead to increased payoffs under the influence of noise. In a previous paper [Traulsen , Phys. Rev. Lett. 93, 028701 (2004)], we have demonstrated this effect based on a replicator dynamics model which is subject to external noise. Here, we utilize recent advances on finite population dynamics and their connection to the replicator equation to extend our findings and demonstrate the stochastic gain effect in finite population systems. Finite population dynamics is inherently stochastic, depending on the population size and the intensity of selection, which measures the balance between the deterministic and the stochastic parts of the dynamics. This internal noise can be exploited by a population using an appropriate microscopic update process, even if learning rates are constant.

How Does a Divided Population Respond to Change?

PubMed

Qubbaj, Murad R; Muneepeerakul, Rachata; Aggarwal, Rimjhim M; Anderies, John M

2015-01-01

Most studies on the response of socioeconomic systems to a sudden shift focus on long-term equilibria or end points. Such narrow focus forgoes many valuable insights. Here we examine the transient dynamics of regime shift on a divided population, exemplified by societies divided ideologically, politically, economically, or technologically. Replicator dynamics is used to investigate the complex transient dynamics of the population response. Though simple, our modeling approach exhibits a surprisingly rich and diverse array of dynamics. Our results highlight the critical roles played by diversity in strategies and the magnitude of the shift. Importantly, it allows for a variety of strategies to arise organically as an integral part of the transient dynamics--as opposed to an independent process--of population response to a regime shift, providing a link between the population's past and future diversity patterns. Several combinations of different populations' strategy distributions and shifts were systematically investigated. Such rich dynamics highlight the challenges of anticipating the response of a divided population to a change. The findings in this paper can potentially improve our understanding of a wide range of socio-ecological and technological transitions.

Influence of climatic variability on local population dynamics of a Sonoran Desert platyopuntia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowers, Janice E.

2005-01-01

Age-based population dynamics of Opuntia engelmannii, a shrubby cactus with flattened cladodes, were investigated at a Sonoran Desert site protected from grazing since 1907. Demographic statistics were determined from births and deaths on six permanent vegetation plots mapped four times between 1968 and 2001. Moderate longevity (13-56 years) and modest per capita annual survival (0.9298) were associated with fairly rapid turnover; cycles of population growth and decline were thus evident over relatively short periods. Age-frequency distribution, determined for subpopulations in two neighboring habitats in 1996 and 2003, was used to calculate residual regeneration, an index of the difference between observed cohort size and idealized survivorship. Establishment peaks occurred in the late 1970s, the mid-1980s, and the early to mid-1990s and coincided with increased winter moisture in the years before germination, ample summer rain in the year of germination, and decreased drought in the years after germination, reflecting favorable conditions for fruit production, seed germination, and seedling survival. Regionally, pulses and gaps in establishment coincide with the frequency and amplitude of large-scale climatic phenomena that affect cycles of moisture and drought on decadal and interdecadal scales. Because of local factors, however, subpopulations within a few km of one another can experience virtually identical climates yet differ strikingly in age structure and density. ?? 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing spatial coupling in complex population dynamics using mutual prediction and continuity statistics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.M.; Moniz, L.; Nichols, J.D.; Pecora, L.M.; Cooch, E.

2005-01-01

A number of important questions in ecology involve the possibility of interactions or ?coupling? among potential components of ecological systems. The basic question of whether two components are coupled (exhibit dynamical interdependence) is relevant to investigations of movement of animals over space, population regulation, food webs and trophic interactions, and is also useful in the design of monitoring programs. For example, in spatially extended systems, coupling among populations in different locations implies the existence of redundant information in the system and the possibility of exploiting this redundancy in the development of spatial sampling designs. One approach to the identification of coupling involves study of the purported mechanisms linking system components. Another approach is based on time series of two potential components of the same system and, in previous ecological work, has relied on linear cross-correlation analysis. Here we present two different attractor-based approaches, continuity and mutual prediction, for determining the degree to which two population time series (e.g., at different spatial locations) are coupled. Both approaches are demonstrated on a one-dimensional predator?prey model system exhibiting complex dynamics. Of particular interest is the spatial asymmetry introduced into the model as linearly declining resource for the prey over the domain of the spatial coordinate. Results from these approaches are then compared to the more standard cross-correlation analysis. In contrast to cross-correlation, both continuity and mutual prediction are clearly able to discern the asymmetry in the flow of information through this system.

Coordinated dynamic encoding in the retina using opposing forms of plasticity

PubMed Central

Kastner, David B.; Baccus, Stephen A.

2011-01-01

The range of natural inputs encoded by a neuron often exceeds its dynamic range. To overcome this limitation, neural populations divide their inputs among different cell classes, as with rod and cone photoreceptors, and adapt by shifting their dynamic range. We report that the dynamic behavior of retinal ganglion cells in salamanders, mice, and rabbits is divided into two opposing forms of short-term plasticity in different cell classes. One population of cells exhibited sensitization—a persistent elevated sensitivity following a strong stimulus. This novel dynamic behavior compensates for the information loss caused by the known process of adaptation occurring in a separate cell population. The two populations divide the dynamic range of inputs, with sensitizing cells encoding weak signals, and adapting cells encoding strong signals. In the two populations, the linear, threshold and adaptive properties are linked to preserve responsiveness when stimulus statistics change, with one population maintaining the ability to respond when the other fails. PMID:21909086

Life-History and Spatial Determinants of Somatic Growth Dynamics in Komodo Dragon Populations

PubMed Central

Laver, Rebecca J.; Purwandana, Deni; Ariefiandy, Achmad; Imansyah, Jeri; Forsyth, David; Ciofi, Claudio; Jessop, Tim S.

2012-01-01

Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world’s largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species. PMID:23028983

Invasion and Persistence of Infectious Agents in Fragmented Host Populations

PubMed Central

Jesse, Marieke; Mazzucco, Rupert; Dieckmann, Ulf; Heesterbeek, Hans; Metz, Johan A. J.

2011-01-01

One of the important questions in understanding infectious diseases and their prevention and control is how infectious agents can invade and become endemic in a host population. A ubiquitous feature of natural populations is that they are spatially fragmented, resulting in relatively homogeneous local populations inhabiting patches connected by the migration of hosts. Such fragmented population structures are studied extensively with metapopulation models. Being able to define and calculate an indicator for the success of invasion and persistence of an infectious agent is essential for obtaining general qualitative insights into infection dynamics, for the comparison of prevention and control scenarios, and for quantitative insights into specific systems. For homogeneous populations, the basic reproduction ratio plays this role. For metapopulations, defining such an ‘invasion indicator’ is not straightforward. Some indicators have been defined for specific situations, e.g., the household reproduction number . However, these existing indicators often fail to account for host demography and especially host migration. Here we show how to calculate a more broadly applicable indicator for the invasion and persistence of infectious agents in a host metapopulation of equally connected patches, for a wide range of possible epidemiological models. A strong feature of our method is that it explicitly accounts for host demography and host migration. Using a simple compartmental system as an example, we illustrate how can be calculated and expressed in terms of the key determinants of epidemiological dynamics. PMID:21980339

Continent-wide panmixia of an African fruit bat facilitates transmission of potentially zoonotic viruses.

PubMed

Peel, Alison J; Sargan, David R; Baker, Kate S; Hayman, David T S; Barr, Jennifer A; Crameri, Gary; Suu-Ire, Richard; Broder, Christopher C; Lembo, Tiziana; Wang, Lin-Fa; Fooks, Anthony R; Rossiter, Stephen J; Wood, James L N; Cunningham, Andrew A

2013-01-01

The straw-coloured fruit bat, Eidolon helvum, is Africa's most widely distributed and commonly hunted fruit bat, often living in close proximity to human populations. This species has been identified as a reservoir of potentially zoonotic viruses, but uncertainties remain regarding viral transmission dynamics and mechanisms of persistence. Here we combine genetic and serological analyses of populations across Africa, to determine the extent of epidemiological connectivity among E. helvum populations. Multiple markers reveal panmixia across the continental range, at a greater geographical scale than previously recorded for any other mammal, whereas populations on remote islands were genetically distinct. Multiple serological assays reveal antibodies to henipaviruses and Lagos bat virus in all locations, including small isolated island populations, indicating that factors other than population size and connectivity may be responsible for viral persistence. Our findings have potentially important public health implications, and highlight a need to avoid disturbances that may precipitate viral spillover.

Population variation and individual maximum size in two leech populations: energy extraction from cannibalism or niche widening?

PubMed

Persson, Lennart; Elliott, J Malcolm

2013-05-01

The theory of cannibal dynamics predicts a link between population dynamics and individual life history. In particular, increased individual growth has, in both modeling and empirical studies, been shown to result from a destabilization of population dynamics. We used data from a long-term study of the dynamics of two leech (Erpobdella octoculata) populations to test the hypothesis that maximum size should be higher in a cycling population; one of the study populations exhibited a delayed feedback cycle while the other population showed no sign of cyclicity. A hump-shaped relationship between individual mass of 1-year-old leeches and offspring density the previous year was present in both populations. As predicted from the theory, the maximum mass of individuals was much larger in the fluctuating population. In contrast to predictions, the higher growth rate was not related to energy extraction from cannibalism. Instead, the higher individual mass is suggested to be due to increased availability of resources due to a niche widening with increased individual body mass. The larger individual mass in the fluctuating population was related to a stronger correlation between the densities of 1-year-old individuals and 2-year-old individuals the following year in this population. Although cannibalism was the major mechanism regulating population dynamics, its importance was negligible in terms of providing cannibalizing individuals with energy subsequently increasing their fecundity. Instead, the study identifies a need for theoretical and empirical studies on the largely unstudied interplay between ontogenetic niche shifts and cannibalistic population dynamics.

Anomalous Growth of Aging Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grebenkov, Denis S.

2016-04-01

We consider a discrete-time population dynamics with age-dependent structure. At every time step, one of the alive individuals from the population is chosen randomly and removed with probability q_k depending on its age, whereas a new individual of age 1 is born with probability r. The model can also describe a single queue in which the service order is random while the service efficiency depends on a customer's "age" in the queue. We propose a mean field approximation to investigate the long-time asymptotic behavior of the mean population size. The age dependence is shown to lead to anomalous power-law growth of the population at the critical regime. The scaling exponent is determined by the asymptotic behavior of the probabilities q_k at large k. The mean field approximation is validated by Monte Carlo simulations.

Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

2015-06-01

The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations.

The finite state projection approach to analyze dynamics of heterogeneous populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Rob; Munsky, Brian

2017-06-01

Population modeling aims to capture and predict the dynamics of cell populations in constant or fluctuating environments. At the elementary level, population growth proceeds through sequential divisions of individual cells. Due to stochastic effects, populations of cells are inherently heterogeneous in phenotype, and some phenotypic variables have an effect on division or survival rates, as can be seen in partial drug resistance. Therefore, when modeling population dynamics where the control of growth and division is phenotype dependent, the corresponding model must take account of the underlying cellular heterogeneity. The finite state projection (FSP) approach has often been used to analyze the statistics of independent cells. Here, we extend the FSP analysis to explore the coupling of cell dynamics and biomolecule dynamics within a population. This extension allows a general framework with which to model the state occupations of a heterogeneous, isogenic population of dividing and expiring cells. The method is demonstrated with a simple model of cell-cycle progression, which we use to explore possible dynamics of drug resistance phenotypes in dividing cells. We use this method to show how stochastic single-cell behaviors affect population level efficacy of drug treatments, and we illustrate how slight modifications to treatment regimens may have dramatic effects on drug efficacy.

Determinants of STD epidemics: implications for phase appropriate intervention strategies.

PubMed

Aral, S O

2002-04-01

Determinants of evolving epidemics of sexually transmitted diseases (STD) are equally influenced by the evolution of the STD epidemics themselves and by the evolution of human societies. A temporal approach to STD transmission dynamics suggests the need to monitor infectivity, rate of exposure between infected and susceptible individuals, and duration of infectiousness in societies. Different indicators may be used to monitor rate of exposure in the general population and in core groups. In addition, underlying determinants of STD epidemics such as poverty, inequality, racial/ethnic discrimination, unemployment, sex ratio, volume of migration, and health care coverage and quality are important variables to monitor through a surveillance system focused on social context. Ongoing large scale societal changes including urbanisation, globalisation, increasing inequality, and increasing volume of migrant populations may affect the evolution of STD epidemics. Globalised STD epidemics could pose a major challenge to local public health systems.

Disentangling invasion processes in a dynamic shipping-boating network.

PubMed

Lacoursière-Roussel, Anaïs; Bock, Dan G; Cristescu, Melania E; Guichard, Frédéric; Girard, Philippe; Legendre, Pierre; McKindsey, Christopher W

2012-09-01

The relative importance of multiple vectors to the initial establishment, spread and population dynamics of invasive species remains poorly understood. This study used molecular methods to clarify the roles of commercial shipping and recreational boating in the invasion by the cosmopolitan tunicate, Botryllus schlosseri. We evaluated (i) single vs. multiple introduction scenarios, (ii) the relative importance of shipping and boating to primary introductions, (iii) the interaction between these vectors for spread (i.e. the presence of a shipping-boating network) and (iv) the role of boating in determining population similarity. Tunicates were sampled from 26 populations along the Nova Scotia, Canada, coast that were exposed to either shipping (i.e. ports) or boating (i.e. marinas) activities. A total of 874 individuals (c. 30 per population) from five ports and 21 marinas was collected and analysed using both mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene (COI) and 10 nuclear microsatellite markers. The geographical location of multiple hotspot populations indicates that multiple invasions have occurred in Nova Scotia. A loss of genetic diversity from port to marina populations suggests a stronger influence of ships than recreational boats on primary coastal introductions. Population genetic similarity analysis reveals a dependence of marina populations on those that had been previously established in ports. Empirical data on marina connectivity because of boating better explains patterns in population similarities than does natural spread. We conclude that frequent primary introductions arise by ships and that secondary spread occurs gradually thereafter around individual ports, facilitated by recreational boating. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Use of Mobile Device Data To Better Estimate Dynamic Population Size for Wastewater-Based Epidemiology.

PubMed

Thomas, Kevin V; Amador, Arturo; Baz-Lomba, Jose Antonio; Reid, Malcolm

2017-10-03

Wastewater-based epidemiology is an established approach for quantifying community drug use and has recently been applied to estimate population exposure to contaminants such as pesticides and phthalate plasticizers. A major source of uncertainty in the population weighted biomarker loads generated is related to estimating the number of people present in a sewer catchment at the time of sample collection. Here, the population quantified from mobile device-based population activity patterns was used to provide dynamic population normalized loads of illicit drugs and pharmaceuticals during a known period of high net fluctuation in the catchment population. Mobile device-based population activity patterns have for the first time quantified the high degree of intraday, week, and month variability within a specific sewer catchment. Dynamic population normalization showed that per capita pharmaceutical use remained unchanged during the period when static normalization would have indicated an average reduction of up to 31%. Per capita illicit drug use increased significantly during the monitoring period, an observation that was only possible to measure using dynamic population normalization. The study quantitatively confirms previous assessments that population estimates can account for uncertainties of up to 55% in static normalized data. Mobile device-based population activity patterns allow for dynamic normalization that yields much improved temporal and spatial trend analysis.

Modeling metapopulation dynamics for single species of seabirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buckley, P.A.; Downer, R.; McCullough, D.R.; Barrett, R.H.

1992-01-01

Seabirds share many characteristics setting them apart from other birds. Importantly, they breed more or less obligatorily in local clusters of colonies that can move regularly from site to site, and they routinely exchange breeders. The properties of such metapopulations have only recently begun to be examined, often with models that are occupancy-based (using only colony presence or absence data) and deterministic (using single, empirically determined values for each of several population biology parameters). Some recent models are now frequency-based (using actual population sizes at each site), as well as stochastic (randomly varying critical parameters between biologically realistic limits), yielding better estimates of the behavior of future populations. Using two such models designed to quantify relative risks of population changes under different future scenarios (RAMAS/stage and RAMAS/space), we have examined probable future populations dynamics for three hypothetical seabirds -- an albatross, a cormorant, and a tern. With real parameters and ranges of values we alternatively modelled each species with and without density dependence, as well as with their numbers in a single, large colony, or in many smaller ones, distributed evenly or lognormally. We produced a series of species-typical lines for different population risks over the 50 years we simulated. We call these curves Instantaneous Threat Assessments (ITAs), and their shapes mirror the varying life history characteristics of our three species. We also demonstrated (by a process known as sensitivity analysis) that the most important parameters determining future population fates of all three species were correlation of mean growth rate among colonies; dispersal rate of present and future breeders; subadult survivorship; and the number of subpopulations (=colonies) - in roughly that descending order of importance. In addition, density dependence was found to markedly alter ITA line shape and position, dramatically in the tern. Finally, we show that for each of our three seabirds, a substantial reduction in the risk of the entire population's going to extinction was provided by a metapopulation (i.e. colonial) breeding structure -- thus comfortably confirming what avian ecologists have long known but about which population modellers are somtimes still unsure.

Eco-evolutionary dynamics in a coevolving host-virus system.

PubMed

Frickel, Jens; Sieber, Michael; Becks, Lutz

2016-04-01

Eco-evolutionary dynamics have been shown to be important for understanding population and community stability and their adaptive potential. However, coevolution in the framework of eco-evolutionary theory has not been addressed directly. Combining experiments with an algal host and its viral parasite, and mathematical model analyses we show eco-evolutionary dynamics in antagonistic coevolving populations. The interaction between antagonists initially resulted in arms race dynamics (ARD) with selective sweeps, causing oscillating host-virus population dynamics. However, ARD ended and populations stabilised after the evolution of a general resistant host, whereas a trade-off between host resistance and growth then maintained host diversity over time (trade-off driven dynamics). Most importantly, our study shows that the interaction between ecology and evolution had important consequences for the predictability of the mode and tempo of adaptive change and for the stability and adaptive potential of populations. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Mapping of the stochastic Lotka-Volterra model to models of population genetics and game theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Constable, George W. A.; McKane, Alan J.

2017-08-01

The relationship between the M -species stochastic Lotka-Volterra competition (SLVC) model and the M -allele Moran model of population genetics is explored via timescale separation arguments. When selection for species is weak and the population size is large but finite, precise conditions are determined for the stochastic dynamics of the SLVC model to be mappable to the neutral Moran model, the Moran model with frequency-independent selection, and the Moran model with frequency-dependent selection (equivalently a game-theoretic formulation of the Moran model). We demonstrate how these mappings can be used to calculate extinction probabilities and the times until a species' extinction in the SLVC model.

Malthusian dynamics in a diverging Europe: Northern Italy, 1650-1881.

PubMed

Fernihough, Alan

2013-02-01

Recent empirical research questions the validity of using Malthusian theory in preindustrial England. Using real wage and vital rate data for the years 1650-1881, I provide empirical estimates for a different region: Northern Italy. The empirical methodology is theoretically underpinned by a simple Malthusian model, in which population, real wages, and vital rates are determined endogenously. My findings strongly support the existence of a Malthusian economy wherein population growth decreased living standards, which in turn influenced vital rates. However, these results also demonstrate how the system is best characterized as one of weak homeostasis. Furthermore, there is no evidence of Boserupian effects given that increases in population failed to spur any sustained technological progress.

Climate change and temperature-dependent sex determination: can individual plasticity in nesting phenology prevent extreme sex ratios?

PubMed

Schwanz, Lisa E; Janzen, Fredric J

2008-01-01

Under temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), temperatures experienced by embryos during development determine the sex of the offspring. Consequently, populations of organisms with TSD have the potential to be strongly impacted by climatic warming that could bias offspring sex ratio, a fundamental demographic parameter involved in population dynamics. Moreover, many taxa with TSD are imperiled, so research on this phenomenon, particularly long-term field study, has assumed great urgency. Recently, turtles with TSD have joined the diverse list of taxa that have demonstrated population-level changes in breeding phenology in response to recent climate change. This raises the possibility that any adverse impacts of climate change on populations may be alleviated by individual plasticity in nesting phenology. Here, we examine data from a long-term study on a population of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) to determine whether changes in phenology are due to individual plasticity and whether individual plasticity in the timing of nesting has the capacity to offset the sex ratio effects of a rise in climatic temperature. We find that individual females show plasticity in the date of first nesting each year, and that this plasticity depends on the climate from the previous winter. First nesting date is not repeatable within individuals, suggesting that it would not respond to selection. Sex ratios of hatchlings within a nest declined nonsignificantly over the nesting season. However, small increases in summer temperature had a much stronger effect on nest sex ratios than did laying nests earlier in the season. For this and other reasons, it seems unlikely that individual plasticity in the timing of nesting will offset the effects of climate change on sex ratios in this population, and we hypothesize that this conclusion applies to other populations with TSD.

Dynamical evolution of small bodies in the Solar System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobson, Seth A.

2012-05-01

This thesis explores the dynamical evolution of small bodies in the Solar System. It focuses on the asteroid population but parts of the theory can be applied to other systems such as comets or Kuiper Belt objects. Small is a relative term that refers to bodies whose dynamics can be significantly perturbed by non-gravitational forces and tidal torques on timescales less than their lifetimes (for instance the collisional timescale in the Main Belt asteroid population or the sun impact timescale for the near-Earth asteroid population). Non-gravitational torques such as the YORP effect can result in the active endogenous evolution of asteroid systems; something that was not considered more than twenty years ago. This thesis is divided into three independent studies. The first explores the dynamics of a binary systems immediately after formation from rotational fission. The rotational fission hypothesis states that a rotationally torqued asteroid will fission when the centrifugal accelerations across the body exceed gravitational attraction. Asteroids must have very little or no tensile strength for this to occur, and are often referred to as "rubble piles.'' A more complete description of the hypothesis and the ensuing dynamics is provided there. From that study a framework of asteroid evolution is assembled. It is determined that mass ratio is the most important factor for determining the outcome of a rotational fission event. Each observed binary morphology is tied to this evolutionary schema and the relevant timescales are assessed. In the second study, the role of non-gravitational and tidal torques in binary asteroid systems is explored. Understanding the competition between tides and the YORP effect provides insight into the relative abundances of the different binary morphologies and the effect of planetary flybys. The interplay between tides and the BYORP effect creates dramatic evolutionary pathways that lead to interesting end states including stranded widely separated asynchronous binaries or tightly bound synchronous binaries, which occupy a revealing equilibrium. The first results of observations are reported that confirm the theoretically predicted equilibrium. In the final study, the binary asteroid evolutionary model is embedded in a model of the entire Main Belt asteroid population. The asteroid population evolution model includes the effects of collisions as well as the YORP-induced rotational fission. The model output is favorably compared to a number of observables. This allows inferences to be made regarding the free parameters of the model including the most likely typical binary lifetimes. These studies can be combined to create an overall picture of asteroid evolution. From only the power of sunlight, an asteroid can transform into a myriad number of different states according to a few fundamental forces.

Mapping the conformational landscape of a dynamic enzyme by multitemperature and XFEL crystallography

PubMed Central

Keedy, Daniel A; Kenner, Lillian R; Warkentin, Matthew; Woldeyes, Rahel A; Hopkins, Jesse B; Thompson, Michael C; Brewster, Aaron S; Van Benschoten, Andrew H; Baxter, Elizabeth L; Uervirojnangkoorn, Monarin; McPhillips, Scott E; Song, Jinhu; Alonso-Mori, Roberto; Holton, James M; Weis, William I; Brunger, Axel T; Soltis, S Michael; Lemke, Henrik; Gonzalez, Ana; Sauter, Nicholas K; Cohen, Aina E; van den Bedem, Henry; Thorne, Robert E; Fraser, James S

2015-01-01

Determining the interconverting conformations of dynamic proteins in atomic detail is a major challenge for structural biology. Conformational heterogeneity in the active site of the dynamic enzyme cyclophilin A (CypA) has been previously linked to its catalytic function, but the extent to which the different conformations of these residues are correlated is unclear. Here we compare the conformational ensembles of CypA by multitemperature synchrotron crystallography and fixed-target X-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) crystallography. The diffraction-before-destruction nature of XFEL experiments provides a radiation-damage-free view of the functionally important alternative conformations of CypA, confirming earlier synchrotron-based results. We monitored the temperature dependences of these alternative conformations with eight synchrotron datasets spanning 100-310 K. Multiconformer models show that many alternative conformations in CypA are populated only at 240 K and above, yet others remain populated or become populated at 180 K and below. These results point to a complex evolution of conformational heterogeneity between 180-–240 K that involves both thermal deactivation and solvent-driven arrest of protein motions in the crystal. The lack of a single shared conformational response to temperature within the dynamic active-site network provides evidence for a conformation shuffling model, in which exchange between rotamer states of a large aromatic ring in the middle of the network shifts the conformational ensemble for the other residues in the network. Together, our multitemperature analyses and XFEL data motivate a new generation of temperature- and time-resolved experiments to structurally characterize the dynamic underpinnings of protein function. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.07574.001 PMID:26422513

Regional aeolian dynamics and sand mixing in the Gran Desierto - Evidence from Landsat Thematic Mapper images

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blount, Grady; Greeley, Ronald; Christensen, Phillip R.; Smith, Milton O.; Adams, John B.

1990-01-01

Mesoscale mapping of spatial variations in sand composition of the Gran Desierto (Sonora, Mexico) was carried out on multispectral Landsat TM images of this region, making it possible to examine the dynamic development of sand sheets and dunes. Compositions determined from remote imagery were found to agree well with samples from selected areas. The sand populations delineated were used to describe the sediment source areas, transport paths, and deposition sites. The image analysis revealed important compositional variations aver large areas that were not readily apparent in the field data.

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

PubMed

Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

2016-06-01

The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current predictions based on mean temperature anomalies are relatively conservative and it is better to apply stochastic tools to resolve complex responses to climate change while taking natural variability into account. In summary, we propose a modeling framework capable of determining distinct intra-annual temperature patterns leading to large or small population sizes, for pest risk assessment and management planning of both natural and agricultural ecosystems.

The DONE framework: Creation, evaluation, and updating of an interdisciplinary, dynamic framework 2.0 of determinants of nutrition and eating

PubMed Central

Stok, F. Marijn; Hoffmann, Stefan; Volkert, Dorothee; Boeing, Heiner; Ensenauer, Regina; Stelmach-Mardas, Marta; Kiesswetter, Eva; Weber, Alisa; Rohm, Harald; Lien, Nanna; Brug, Johannes; Holdsworth, Michelle; Renner, Britta

2017-01-01

The question of which factors drive human eating and nutrition is a key issue in many branches of science. We describe the creation, evaluation, and updating of an interdisciplinary, interactive, and evolving “framework 2.0” of Determinants Of Nutrition and Eating (DONE). The DONE framework was created by an interdisciplinary workgroup in a multiphase, multimethod process. Modifiability, relationship strength, and population-level effect of the determinants were rated to identify areas of priority for research and interventions. External experts positively evaluated the usefulness, comprehensiveness, and quality of the DONE framework. An approach to continue updating the framework with the help of experts was piloted. The DONE framework can be freely accessed (http://uni-konstanz.de/DONE) and used in a highly flexible manner: determinants can be sorted, filtered and visualized for both very specific research questions as well as more general queries. The dynamic nature of the framework allows it to evolve as experts can continually add new determinants and ratings. We anticipate this framework will be useful for research prioritization and intervention development. PMID:28152005

The DONE framework: Creation, evaluation, and updating of an interdisciplinary, dynamic framework 2.0 of determinants of nutrition and eating.

PubMed

Stok, F Marijn; Hoffmann, Stefan; Volkert, Dorothee; Boeing, Heiner; Ensenauer, Regina; Stelmach-Mardas, Marta; Kiesswetter, Eva; Weber, Alisa; Rohm, Harald; Lien, Nanna; Brug, Johannes; Holdsworth, Michelle; Renner, Britta

2017-01-01

The question of which factors drive human eating and nutrition is a key issue in many branches of science. We describe the creation, evaluation, and updating of an interdisciplinary, interactive, and evolving "framework 2.0" of Determinants Of Nutrition and Eating (DONE). The DONE framework was created by an interdisciplinary workgroup in a multiphase, multimethod process. Modifiability, relationship strength, and population-level effect of the determinants were rated to identify areas of priority for research and interventions. External experts positively evaluated the usefulness, comprehensiveness, and quality of the DONE framework. An approach to continue updating the framework with the help of experts was piloted. The DONE framework can be freely accessed (http://uni-konstanz.de/DONE) and used in a highly flexible manner: determinants can be sorted, filtered and visualized for both very specific research questions as well as more general queries. The dynamic nature of the framework allows it to evolve as experts can continually add new determinants and ratings. We anticipate this framework will be useful for research prioritization and intervention development.

Evolution of specialization under non-equilibrium population dynamics.

PubMed

Nurmi, Tuomas; Parvinen, Kalle

2013-03-21

We analyze the evolution of specialization in resource utilization in a mechanistically underpinned discrete-time model using the adaptive dynamics approach. We assume two nutritionally equivalent resources that in the absence of consumers grow sigmoidally towards a resource-specific carrying capacity. The consumers use resources according to the law of mass-action with rates involving trade-off. The resulting discrete-time model for the consumer population has over-compensatory dynamics. We illuminate the way non-equilibrium population dynamics affect the evolutionary dynamics of the resource consumption rates, and show that evolution to the trimorphic coexistence of a generalist and two specialists is possible due to asynchronous non-equilibrium population dynamics of the specialists. In addition, various forms of cyclic evolutionary dynamics are possible. Furthermore, evolutionary suicide may occur even without Allee effects and demographic stochasticity. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temperature-dependent body size effects determine population responses to climate warming.

PubMed

Lindmark, Max; Huss, Magnus; Ohlberger, Jan; Gårdmark, Anna

2018-02-01

Current understanding of animal population responses to rising temperatures is based on the assumption that biological rates such as metabolism, which governs fundamental ecological processes, scale independently with body size and temperature, despite empirical evidence for interactive effects. Here, we investigate the consequences of interactive temperature- and size scaling of vital rates for the dynamics of populations experiencing warming using a stage-structured consumer-resource model. We show that interactive scaling alters population and stage-specific responses to rising temperatures, such that warming can induce shifts in population regulation and stage-structure, influence community structure and govern population responses to mortality. Analysing experimental data for 20 fish species, we found size-temperature interactions in intraspecific scaling of metabolic rate to be common. Given the evidence for size-temperature interactions and the ubiquity of size structure in animal populations, we argue that accounting for size-specific temperature effects is pivotal for understanding how warming affects animal populations and communities. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Determination of the formation of dark state via depleted spontaneous emission in a complex solvated molecule.

PubMed

Guo, Xunmin; Wang, Sufan; Xia, Andong; Su, Hongmei

2007-07-05

We present a general two-color two-pulse femtosecond pump-dump approach to study the specific population transfer along the reaction coordinate through the higher vibrational energy levels of excited states of a complex solvated molecule via the depleted spontaneous emission. The time-dependent fluorescence depletion provides the correlated dynamical information between the monitored fluorescence state and the SEP "dumped" dark states, and therefore allow us to obtain the dynamics of the formation of the dark states corresponding to the ultrafast photoisomerization processes. The excited-state dynamics of LDS 751 have been investigated as a function of solvent viscosity and solvent polarity, where a cooperative two-step isomerization process is clearly identified within LDS 751 upon excitation.

Noisy Oscillations in the Actin Cytoskeleton of Chemotactic Amoeba.

PubMed

Negrete, Jose; Pumir, Alain; Hsu, Hsin-Fang; Westendorf, Christian; Tarantola, Marco; Beta, Carsten; Bodenschatz, Eberhard

2016-09-30

Biological systems with their complex biochemical networks are known to be intrinsically noisy. Here we investigate the dynamics of actin polymerization of amoeboid cells, which are close to the onset of oscillations. We show that the large phenotypic variability in the polymerization dynamics can be accurately captured by a generic nonlinear oscillator model in the presence of noise. We determine the relative role of the noise with a single dimensionless, experimentally accessible parameter, thus providing a quantitative description of the variability in a population of cells. Our approach, which rests on a generic description of a system close to a Hopf bifurcation and includes the effect of noise, can characterize the dynamics of a large class of noisy systems close to an oscillatory instability.

Deciphering the Interdependence between Ecological and Evolutionary Networks.

PubMed

Melián, Carlos J; Matthews, Blake; de Andreazzi, Cecilia S; Rodríguez, Jorge P; Harmon, Luke J; Fortuna, Miguel A

2018-05-24

Biological systems consist of elements that interact within and across hierarchical levels. For example, interactions among genes determine traits of individuals, competitive and cooperative interactions among individuals influence population dynamics, and interactions among species affect the dynamics of communities and ecosystem processes. Such systems can be represented as hierarchical networks, but can have complex dynamics when interdependencies among levels of the hierarchy occur. We propose integrating ecological and evolutionary processes in hierarchical networks to explore interdependencies in biological systems. We connect gene networks underlying predator-prey trait distributions to food webs. Our approach addresses longstanding questions about how complex traits and intraspecific trait variation affect the interdependencies among biological levels and the stability of meta-ecosystems. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Noisy Oscillations in the Actin Cytoskeleton of Chemotactic Amoeba

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Negrete, Jose; Pumir, Alain; Hsu, Hsin-Fang; Westendorf, Christian; Tarantola, Marco; Beta, Carsten; Bodenschatz, Eberhard

2016-09-01

Biological systems with their complex biochemical networks are known to be intrinsically noisy. Here we investigate the dynamics of actin polymerization of amoeboid cells, which are close to the onset of oscillations. We show that the large phenotypic variability in the polymerization dynamics can be accurately captured by a generic nonlinear oscillator model in the presence of noise. We determine the relative role of the noise with a single dimensionless, experimentally accessible parameter, thus providing a quantitative description of the variability in a population of cells. Our approach, which rests on a generic description of a system close to a Hopf bifurcation and includes the effect of noise, can characterize the dynamics of a large class of noisy systems close to an oscillatory instability.

CRISPR Associated Diversity within a Population of Sulfolobus islandicus

PubMed Central

Held, Nicole L.; Herrera, Alfa; Cadillo-Quiroz, Hinsby; Whitaker, Rachel J.

2010-01-01

Background Predator-prey models for virus-host interactions predict that viruses will cause oscillations of microbial host densities due to an arms race between resistance and virulence. A new form of microbial resistance, CRISPRs (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats) are a rapidly evolving, sequence-specific immunity mechanism in which a short piece of invading viral DNA is inserted into the host's chromosome, thereby rendering the host resistant to further infection. Few studies have linked this form of resistance to population dynamics in natural microbial populations. Methodology/Principal Findings We examined sequence diversity in 39 strains of the archeaon Sulfolobus islandicus from a single, isolated hot spring from Kamchatka, Russia to determine the effects of CRISPR immunity on microbial population dynamics. First, multiple housekeeping genetic markers identify a large clonal group of identical genotypes coexisting with a diverse set of rare genotypes. Second, the sequence-specific CRISPR spacer arrays split the large group of isolates into two very different groups and reveal extensive diversity and no evidence for dominance of a single clone within the population. Conclusions/Significance The evenness of resistance genotypes found within this population of S. islandicus is indicative of a lack of strain dominance, in contrast to the prediction for a resistant strain in a simple predator-prey interaction. Based on evidence for the independent acquisition of resistant sequences, we hypothesize that CRISPR mediated clonal interference between resistant strains promotes and maintains diversity in this natural population. PMID:20927396

On the estimation of dispersal and movement of birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Nichols, J.D.

2004-01-01

The estimation of dispersal and movement is important to evolutionary and population ecologists, as well as to wildlife managers. We review statistical methodology available to estimate movement probabilities. We begin with cases where individual birds can be marked and their movements estimated with the use of multisite capture-recapture methods. Movements can be monitored either directly, using telemetry, or by accounting for detection probability when conventional marks are used. When one or more sites are unobservable, telemetry, band recoveries, incidental observations, a closed- or open-population robust design, or partial determinism in movements can be used to estimate movement. When individuals cannot be marked, presence-absence data can be used to model changes in occupancy over time, providing indirect inferences about movement. Where abundance estimates over time are available for multiple sites, potential coupling of their dynamics can be investigated using linear cross-correlation or nonlinear dynamic tools.

Study of a mixed dispersal population dynamics model

DOE PAGES

Chugunova, Marina; Jadamba, Baasansuren; Kao, Chiu -Yen; ...

2016-08-27

In this study, we consider a mixed dispersal model with periodic and Dirichlet boundary conditions and its corresponding linear eigenvalue problem. This model describes the time evolution of a population which disperses both locally and non-locally. We investigate how long time dynamics depend on the parameter values. Furthermore, we study the minimization of the principal eigenvalue under the constraints that the resource function is bounded from above and below, and with a fixed total integral. Biologically, this minimization problem is motivated by the question of determining the optimal spatial arrangement of favorable and unfavorable regions for the species to diemore » out more slowly or survive more easily. Our numerical simulations indicate that the optimal favorable region tends to be a simply-connected domain. Numerous results are shown to demonstrate various scenarios of optimal favorable regions for periodic and Dirichlet boundary conditions.« less

Synchronisation and stability in river metapopulation networks.

PubMed

Yeakel, J D; Moore, J W; Guimarães, P R; de Aguiar, M A M

2014-03-01

Spatial structure in landscapes impacts population stability. Two linked components of stability have large consequences for persistence: first, statistical stability as the lack of temporal fluctuations; second, synchronisation as an aspect of dynamic stability, which erodes metapopulation rescue effects. Here, we determine the influence of river network structure on the stability of riverine metapopulations. We introduce an approach that converts river networks to metapopulation networks, and analytically show how fluctuation magnitude is influenced by interaction structure. We show that river metapopulation complexity (in terms of branching prevalence) has nonlinear dampening effects on population fluctuations, and can also buffer against synchronisation. We conclude by showing that river transects generally increase synchronisation, while the spatial scale of interaction has nonlinear effects on synchronised dynamics. Our results indicate that this dual stability - conferred by fluctuation and synchronisation dampening - emerges from interaction structure in rivers, and this may strongly influence the persistence of river metapopulations. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

A framework for studying transient dynamics of population projection matrix models.

PubMed

Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart; Hodgson, David James

2011-09-01

Empirical models are central to effective conservation and population management, and should be predictive of real-world dynamics. Available modelling methods are diverse, but analysis usually focuses on long-term dynamics that are unable to describe the complicated short-term time series that can arise even from simple models following ecological disturbances or perturbations. Recent interest in such transient dynamics has led to diverse methodologies for their quantification in density-independent, time-invariant population projection matrix (PPM) models, but the fragmented nature of this literature has stifled the widespread analysis of transients. We review the literature on transient analyses of linear PPM models and synthesise a coherent framework. We promote the use of standardised indices, and categorise indices according to their focus on either convergence times or transient population density, and on either transient bounds or case-specific transient dynamics. We use a large database of empirical PPM models to explore relationships between indices of transient dynamics. This analysis promotes the use of population inertia as a simple, versatile and informative predictor of transient population density, but criticises the utility of established indices of convergence times. Our findings should guide further development of analyses of transient population dynamics using PPMs or other empirical modelling techniques. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Global attractors and extinction dynamics of cyclically competing species.

PubMed

Rulands, Steffen; Zielinski, Alejandro; Frey, Erwin

2013-05-01

Transitions to absorbing states are of fundamental importance in nonequilibrium physics as well as ecology. In ecology, absorbing states correspond to the extinction of species. We here study the spatial population dynamics of three cyclically interacting species. The interaction scheme comprises both direct competition between species as in the cyclic Lotka-Volterra model, and separated selection and reproduction processes as in the May-Leonard model. We show that the dynamic processes leading to the transient maintenance of biodiversity are closely linked to attractors of the nonlinear dynamics for the overall species' concentrations. The characteristics of these global attractors change qualitatively at certain threshold values of the mobility and depend on the relative strength of the different types of competition between species. They give information about the scaling of extinction times with the system size and thereby the stability of biodiversity. We define an effective free energy as the negative logarithm of the probability to find the system in a specific global state before reaching one of the absorbing states. The global attractors then correspond to minima of this effective energy landscape and determine the most probable values for the species' global concentrations. As in equilibrium thermodynamics, qualitative changes in the effective free energy landscape indicate and characterize the underlying nonequilibrium phase transitions. We provide the complete phase diagrams for the population dynamics and give a comprehensive analysis of the spatio-temporal dynamics and routes to extinction in the respective phases.

Dynamics of nanoparticle-protein corona complex formation: analytical results from population balance equations.

PubMed

Darabi Sahneh, Faryad; Scoglio, Caterina; Riviere, Jim

2013-01-01

Nanoparticle-protein corona complex formation involves absorption of protein molecules onto nanoparticle surfaces in a physiological environment. Understanding the corona formation process is crucial in predicting nanoparticle behavior in biological systems, including applications of nanotoxicology and development of nano drug delivery platforms. This paper extends the modeling work in to derive a mathematical model describing the dynamics of nanoparticle corona complex formation from population balance equations. We apply nonlinear dynamics techniques to derive analytical results for the composition of nanoparticle-protein corona complex, and validate our results through numerical simulations. The model presented in this paper exhibits two phases of corona complex dynamics. In the first phase, proteins rapidly bind to the free surface of nanoparticles, leading to a metastable composition. During the second phase, continuous association and dissociation of protein molecules with nanoparticles slowly changes the composition of the corona complex. Given sufficient time, composition of the corona complex reaches an equilibrium state of stable composition. We find analytical approximate formulae for metastable and stable compositions of corona complex. Our formulae are very well-structured to clearly identify important parameters determining corona composition. The dynamics of biocorona formation constitute vital aspect of interactions between nanoparticles and living organisms. Our results further understanding of these dynamics through quantitation of experimental conditions, modeling results for in vitro systems to better predict behavior for in vivo systems. One potential application would involve a single cell culture medium related to a complex protein medium, such as blood or tissue fluid.

Transition from amplitude to oscillation death in a network of oscillators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nandan, Mauparna; Hens, C. R.; Pal, Pinaki; Dana, Syamal K.

2014-12-01

We report a transition from a homogeneous steady state (HSS) to inhomogeneous steady states (IHSSs) in a network of globally coupled identical oscillators. We perturb a synchronized population of oscillators in the network with a few local negative or repulsive mean field links. The whole population splits into two clusters for a certain number of repulsive mean field links and a range of coupling strength. For further increase of the strength of interaction, these clusters collapse into a HSS followed by a transition to IHSSs where all the oscillators populate either of the two stable steady states. We analytically determine the origin of HSS and its transition to IHSS in relation to the number of repulsive mean-field links and the strength of interaction using a reductionism approach to the model network. We verify the results with numerical examples of the paradigmatic Landau-Stuart limit cycle system and the chaotic Rössler oscillator as dynamical nodes. During the transition from HSS to IHSSs, the network follows the Turing type symmetry breaking pitchfork or transcritical bifurcation depending upon the system dynamics.

Population-dynamics focussed rapid rural mapping and characterisation of the peri-urban interface of Kampala, Uganda

PubMed Central

Makita, K.; Fèvre, E.M.; Waiswa, C.; Bronsvoort, M.D.C.; Eisler, M.C.; Welburn, S.C.

2010-01-01

In developing countries, cities are rapidly expanding and urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA) has an important role in feeding these growing urban populations; however such agriculture also carries public health risks such as zoonotic disease transmission. It is important to assess the role of UPA in food security and public health risks to make evidence-based decisions on policies. Describing and mapping the peri-urban interface (PUI) are the essential first steps for such an assessment. Kampala, the capital city of Uganda is a rapidly expanding city where the PUI has not previously been mapped or properly described. In this paper we provide a spatial representation of the entire PUI of Kampala economic zone and determine the socio-economic factors related with peri-urbanicity using a population-dynamics focussed rapid rural mapping. This fills a technical gap of rapid rural mapping and offers a simple and rapid methodology for describing the PUI which can be applied in any city in developing countries for wide range of studies. PMID:22210972

Culture and fertility in the Nepal Himalayas: a test of a hypothesis.

PubMed

Ross, J L

1984-01-01

In the Nepal Himalayas the Tibetan sociocultural system of fraternal polyandry (the form of marriage where 1 woman has 2 or more brothers as husbands) reduces aggregate fertility whereas Hindu marriage patterns appear to maximize fertility since there is very early and universally monogamous marriages. Over an 18-month period, reseach in the upper reaches of the Humla Distrist of northwestern Nepal focused upon 2 culturally distinct but geographically contiguous communities. 1 is Nepali speaking and high-caste Hindu; the other, Tibetan speaking and Buddhist. The 2 populations present a relatively unique natural laboratory in which several key factors (geographic, environmental and economic) are controlled. Population dynamics in these 2 communities are principally determined by patterns of fertility and mortality. A summary of a number of characteristics of the population dynamics of these 2 populations (e.g., age at 1st birth, birth interval, crude birth rate, completed fertility rate, general fertility rate, % children surviving), shows that they are more alike than dissimilar. Fertility levels between the Hindu and Tibetan population are virtually the same. While Tibetan fraternal polyandry does reduce aggregate fertility, the hypothesis that the Tibetans would have a substantially lower fertility rate than the Hindus is false, because the effects of fraternal polyandry are roughly balanced by the effects of post-widowhood celibacy among the Hindus. This study points up an important issue often overlooked in demographic analysis. Aggregate statistics such as the completed fertility rate, while important, can be deceptive, since very different factors can produce the same result at any given point in time. Diachronically, however, these underlying facotrs may change very differently. For example, fraternal poyandry is highly susceptiable to change because of the constant reevaluation of the opportunity costs associated with its practice. Anticipating the potential cause and directions of future change illustrates an important point. It is imperative in demographic analysis to elucidate the sociocultural factors underlying the reproductive performance of the populations. Culture and population dynamics are intimately intertwined in these communities.

Rapid evolution leads to differential population dynamics and top-down control in resurrected Daphnia populations.

PubMed

Goitom, Eyerusalem; Kilsdonk, Laurens J; Brans, Kristien; Jansen, Mieke; Lemmens, Pieter; De Meester, Luc

2018-01-01

There is growing evidence of rapid genetic adaptation of natural populations to environmental change, opening the perspective that evolutionary trait change may subsequently impact ecological processes such as population dynamics, community composition, and ecosystem functioning. To study such eco-evolutionary feedbacks in natural populations, however, requires samples across time. Here, we capitalize on a resurrection ecology study that documented rapid and adaptive evolution in a natural population of the water flea Daphnia magna in response to strong changes in predation pressure by fish, and carry out a follow-up mesocosm experiment to test whether the observed genetic changes influence population dynamics and top-down control of phytoplankton. We inoculated populations of the water flea D. magna derived from three time periods of the same natural population known to have genetically adapted to changes in predation pressure in replicate mesocosms and monitored both Daphnia population densities and phytoplankton biomass in the presence and absence of fish. Our results revealed differences in population dynamics and top-down control of algae between mesocosms harboring populations from the time period before, during, and after a peak in fish predation pressure caused by human fish stocking. The differences, however, deviated from our a priori expectations. An S-map approach on time series revealed that the interactions between adults and juveniles strongly impacted the dynamics of populations and their top-down control on algae in the mesocosms, and that the strength of these interactions was modulated by rapid evolution as it occurred in nature. Our study provides an example of an evolutionary response that fundamentally alters the processes structuring population dynamics and impacts ecosystem features.

Modelling the dynamics of traits involved in fighting-predators-prey system.

PubMed

Kooi, B W

2015-12-01

We study the dynamics of a predator-prey system where predators fight for captured prey besides searching for and handling (and digestion) of the prey. Fighting for prey is modelled by a continuous time hawk-dove game dynamics where the gain depends on the amount of disputed prey while the costs for fighting is constant per fighting event. The strategy of the predator-population is quantified by a trait being the proportion of the number of predator-individuals playing hawk tactics. The dynamics of the trait is described by two models of adaptation: the replicator dynamics (RD) and the adaptive dynamics (AD). In the RD-approach a variant individual with an adapted trait value changes the population's strategy, and consequently its trait value, only when its payoff is larger than the population average. In the AD-approach successful replacement of the resident population after invasion of a rare variant population with an adapted trait value is a step in a sequence changing the population's strategy, and hence its trait value. The main aim is to compare the consequences of the two adaptation models. In an equilibrium predator-prey system this will lead to convergence to a neutral singular strategy, while in the oscillatory system to a continuous singular strategy where in this endpoint the resident population is not invasible by any variant population. In equilibrium (low prey carrying capacity) RD and AD-approach give the same results, however not always in a periodically oscillating system (high prey carrying-capacity) where the trait is density-dependent. For low costs the predator population is monomorphic (only hawks) while for high costs dimorphic (hawks and doves). These results illustrate that intra-specific trait dynamics matters in predator-prey dynamics.

Effects of riffle length on the short-term movement of fishes among stream pools.

Treesearch

David George Lonzarich; Mary Ruth Elger Lonzrich; Melvin L. Warren

2000-01-01

Recent research has suggested that the within-habitat dynamics of fish populations and assemblages can be affected by the spatial distribution of habitats within streams. In this study, we determined the extent to which pool isolation (length of riffles connecting adjacent pools) influenced fish movement in two Arkansas streams. We marked individuals from 12 pools...

Dynamic Participation in Inter-District Open Enrollment: Evidence from Michigan 2005-2013. Working Paper #49

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cowen, Joshua; Creed, Benjamin; Keesler, Venessa

2015-01-01

This paper considers the determinants of student participation in Michigan's large inter-district open enrollment system, known as Schools of Choice (SoC). Employing a rich dataset from the Michigan Department of Education, we examine the population of public school students in resident and non-resident school districts between the 2005-06 and…

Genetic analysis of emerald ash borer (Agrilus Planipennis Fairmaire) to determine point of origin in North American infestations

Treesearch

Jim Smith; Bob Haack; Leah Bauer

2004-01-01

The objective of this project is to estimate the geographic origin of emerald ash borer (EAB) populations in Asia that gave rise to EAB in North America. Knowledge of EAB genetics will be useful in understanding the invasion dynamics of the beetle, and to help identify geographic localities of potential biocontrol agents.

The Sheperd equation and chaos identification.

PubMed

Gregson, Robert A M

2010-04-01

An equation created by Sheperd (1982) to model stability in exploited fish populations has been found to have a wider application, and it exhibits complicated internal dynamics, including phases of strict periodicity and of chaos. It may be potentially applicable to other psychophysiological contexts. The problems of determining goodness-of fit, and the comparative performance of alternative models including the Shephed model, are briefly addressed.

Population and prehistory III: food-dependent demography in variable environments.

PubMed

Lee, Charlotte T; Puleston, Cedric O; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

2009-11-01

The population dynamics of preindustrial societies depend intimately on their surroundings, and food is a primary means through which environment influences population size and individual well-being. Food production requires labor; thus, dependence of survival and fertility on food involves dependence of a population's future on its current state. We use a perturbation approach to analyze the effects of random environmental variation on this nonlinear, age-structured system. We show that in expanding populations, direct environmental effects dominate induced population fluctuations, so environmental variability has little effect on mean hunger levels, although it does decrease population growth. The growth rate determines the time until population is limited by space. This limitation introduces a tradeoff between population density and well-being, so population effects become more important than the direct effects of the environment: environmental fluctuation increases mortality, releasing density dependence and raising average well-being for survivors. We discuss the social implications of these findings for the long-term fate of populations as they transition from expansion into limitation, given that conditions leading to high well-being during growth depress well-being during limitation.

Effects of an invasive plant on population dynamics in toads.

PubMed

Greenberg, Daniel A; Green, David M

2013-10-01

When populations decline in response to unfavorable environmental change, the dynamics of their population growth shift. In populations that normally exhibit high levels of variation in recruitment and abundance, as do many amphibians, declines may be difficult to identify from natural fluctuations in abundance. However, the onset of declines may be evident from changes in population growth rate in sufficiently long time series of population data. With data from 23 years of study of a population of Fowler's toad (Anaxyrus [ = Bufo] fowleri) at Long Point, Ontario (1989-2011), we sought to identify such a shift in dynamics. We tested for trends in abundance to detect a change point in population dynamics and then tested among competing population models to identify associated intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The most informative models of population growth included terms for toad abundance and the extent of an invasive marsh plant, the common reed (Phragmites australis), throughout the toads' marshland breeding areas. Our results showed density-dependent growth in the toad population from 1989 through 2002. After 2002, however, we found progressive population decline in the toads associated with the spread of common reeds and consequent loss of toad breeding habitat. This resulted in reduced recruitment and population growth despite the lack of significant loss of adult habitat. Our results underscore the value of using long-term time series to identify shifts in population dynamics coincident with the advent of population decline. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

The Effect of Inhibitory Neuron on the Evolution Model of Higher-Order Coupling Neural Oscillator Population

PubMed Central

Qi, Yi; Wang, Rubin; Jiao, Xianfa; Du, Ying

2014-01-01

We proposed a higher-order coupling neural network model including the inhibitory neurons and examined the dynamical evolution of average number density and phase-neural coding under the spontaneous activity and external stimulating condition. The results indicated that increase of inhibitory coupling strength will cause decrease of average number density, whereas increase of excitatory coupling strength will cause increase of stable amplitude of average number density. Whether the neural oscillator population is able to enter the new synchronous oscillation or not is determined by excitatory and inhibitory coupling strength. In the presence of external stimulation, the evolution of the average number density is dependent upon the external stimulation and the coupling term in which the dominator will determine the final evolution. PMID:24516505

Temperature-driven regime shifts in the dynamics of size-structured populations.

PubMed

Ohlberger, Jan; Edeline, Eric; Vøllestad, Leif Asbjørn; Stenseth, Nils C; Claessen, David

2011-02-01

Global warming impacts virtually all biota and ecosystems. Many of these impacts are mediated through direct effects of temperature on individual vital rates. Yet how this translates from the individual to the population level is still poorly understood, hampering the assessment of global warming impacts on population structure and dynamics. Here, we study the effects of temperature on intraspecific competition and cannibalism and the population dynamical consequences in a size-structured fish population. We use a physiologically structured consumer-resource model in which we explicitly model the temperature dependencies of the consumer vital rates and the resource population growth rate. Our model predicts that increased temperature decreases resource density despite higher resource growth rates, reflecting stronger intraspecific competition among consumers. At a critical temperature, the consumer population dynamics destabilize and shift from a stable equilibrium to competition-driven generation cycles that are dominated by recruits. As a consequence, maximum age decreases and the proportion of younger and smaller-sized fish increases. These model predictions support the hypothesis of decreasing mean body sizes due to increased temperatures. We conclude that in size-structured fish populations, global warming may increase competition, favor smaller size classes, and induce regime shifts that destabilize population and community dynamics.

Effects of low and high salinity regimes on seasonal gametogenesis of the ribbed mussel Geukensia granosissima in coastal Louisiana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Honig, Aaron; LaPeyre, Megan K.; Supan, John

2014-01-01

Benthic intertidal bivalves play an essential role in estuarine ecosystems by contributing to habitat provision, water filtration, and host vegetation productivity. As such, ecosystem level changes that impact population distributions and persistence of local bivalve populations may have large ecosystem level consequences, making it important to better understand the population ecology of native bivalves. In order to determine potential impacts of shifting salinity and temperature regimes along the northern Gulf of Mexico, the seasonal timing of gametogenesis in the Gulf estuarine ribbed mussel, Geukensia granossisima, was examined across a salinity gradient in southeastern Louisiana, from July 2011 through October 2012. Ten mussels were randomly sampled monthly from low (~ 5) and high (~25) salinity marsh sites in southeastern Louisiana, and histologically processed to determine the seasonal progression of gametogenesis. Peak ripeness occurred at both sites between April and September, was positively correlated with temperature, and coincided with seasonal shifts in salinity. Mussels located in lower salinity waters demonstrated a shorter period of gametogenesis, and lower rates of ripeness indicating that changes in salinity regimes may impact long-term population dynamics.

Longitudinal patterns in flathead catfish relative abundance and length at age within a large river: Effects of an urban gradient

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paukert, C.P.; Makinster, A.S.

2009-01-01

We investigated the spatial variation of flathead catfish (Pylodictis olivaris) relative abundance and growth in the 274 km long Kansas River to determine if population dynamics of catfish are related to urbanization. Electrofishing was conducted at 462 random sites throughout the river in summer, 2005-2006 to collect fish. Relative abundance of age 1 fish (???200mm), subadult (>200-400mm) and adult fish (>400 mm) ranged from 0.34 to 14.67 fish h-1, mean length at age 1 was 165 (range: 128-195) mm total length (TL) and mean length at age 3 was 376 mm TL (range: 293-419mm TL). The proportion of land use within 200 m of the river edge was between 0 and 0.54 urban. River reaches with high relative abundance of age 1 flathead catfish had high relative abundance of subadult and adult catfish. River reaches with fast flathead catfish growth to age 1 had fast growth to age 3. High urban land use and riprap in the riparian area were evident in river reaches near the heavily populated Kansas City and Topeka, Kansas, USA. Reaches with increased number of log jams and islands had decreased riparian agriculture. Areas of low urbanization had faster flathead catfish growth (r = 0.67, p = 0.005). Relative abundance of flathead catfish was higher in more agricultural areas (r = -0.57, p = 0.02). Changes in land use in riverine environments may alter population dynamics of a fish species within a river. Spatial differences in population dynamics need to be considered when evaluating riverine fish populations. Published in 2008 by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Simulation model of Skeletonema costatum population dynamics in northern San Francisco Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cloern, J.E.; Cheng, R.T.

1981-01-01

A pseudo-two-dimensional model is developed to simulate population dynamics of one dominant phytoplankton species (Skeletonema costatum) in northern San Francisco Bay. The model is formulated around a conceptualization of this estuary as two distinct but coupled subsystems-a deep (10-20 m) central channel and lateral areas with shallow (<2 m) water and slow circulation. Algal growth rates are governed by solar irradiation, temperature and salinity, while population losses are assumed to result from grazing bycalanoid copepods. Consequences of estuarine gravitational circulation are approximated simply by reducing convective-dispersive transport in that section of the channel (null zone) where residual bottom currents are near zero, and lateral mixing is treated as a bulkexchange process between the channel and the shoals. Model output is consistent with the hypothesis that, because planktonic algae are light-limited, shallow areas are the sites of active population growth. Seasonal variation in the location of the null zone (a response to variable river discharge) is responsible for maintaining the spring bloom of neritic diatoms in the seaward reaches of the estuary (San Pablo Bay) and the summer bloom upstream (Suisun Bay). Model output suggests that these spring and summer blooms result from the same general process-establishment of populations over the shoals, where growth rates are rapid, coupled with reduced particulate transport due to estuarine gravitational circulation. It also suggests, however, that the relative importance of physical and biological processes to phytoplankton dynamics is different in San Pablo and Suisun Bays. Finally, the model has helped us determine those processes having sufficient importance to merit further refinement in the next generation of models, and it has given new direction to field studies. ?? 1981 Academic Press Inc. (London) Ltd.

Muskoxen

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, Patricia E.; Wilson, Kenneth J.; Klein, David R.; Douglas, David C.; Reynolds, Patricia E.; Rhode, E.B.

2002-01-01

Muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) disappeared from Alaska in the late 1800s, but returned to the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge when animals were reestablished into areas of former range in 1969-1970 (Klein 1988). Released at Barter Island (Kaktovik) and the Kavik River, muskoxen initially moved into regions that encompassed the 1002 Area on the coastal plain of the Arctic Refuge. From 1974 to 1986 the muskox population grew rapidly. By 1987, however, numbers declined in the regions that they had first occupied (Reynolds 1998a).Petroleum exploration and development could occur in muskox habitat in the 1002 Area of the Arctic Refuge. Status of the muskox population and factors related to trends in local abundance need to be determined if changes resulting from natural processes are to be separated from those that might result if industrial development is permitted in the Arctic Refuge.We developed a study with the following objectives to understand the dynamics of the muskox population in and near the 1002 Area of the Arctic Refuge: 1) determine abundance and rates of population increase, production, and survival; 2) document changes in population distribution over time, and 3) evaluate factors associated with changes in the number of muskoxen.

Symmetric Decomposition of Asymmetric Games.

PubMed

Tuyls, Karl; Pérolat, Julien; Lanctot, Marc; Ostrovski, Georg; Savani, Rahul; Leibo, Joel Z; Ord, Toby; Graepel, Thore; Legg, Shane

2018-01-17

We introduce new theoretical insights into two-population asymmetric games allowing for an elegant symmetric decomposition into two single population symmetric games. Specifically, we show how an asymmetric bimatrix game (A,B) can be decomposed into its symmetric counterparts by envisioning and investigating the payoff tables (A and B) that constitute the asymmetric game, as two independent, single population, symmetric games. We reveal several surprising formal relationships between an asymmetric two-population game and its symmetric single population counterparts, which facilitate a convenient analysis of the original asymmetric game due to the dimensionality reduction of the decomposition. The main finding reveals that if (x,y) is a Nash equilibrium of an asymmetric game (A,B), this implies that y is a Nash equilibrium of the symmetric counterpart game determined by payoff table A, and x is a Nash equilibrium of the symmetric counterpart game determined by payoff table B. Also the reverse holds and combinations of Nash equilibria of the counterpart games form Nash equilibria of the asymmetric game. We illustrate how these formal relationships aid in identifying and analysing the Nash structure of asymmetric games, by examining the evolutionary dynamics of the simpler counterpart games in several canonical examples.

Transient synchrony among populations of five foliage-feeding Lepidoptera

Treesearch

Maartje J. Klapwijk; Jonathan A. Walter; Anikó Hirka; György Csóka; Christer Björkman; Andrew M. Liebhold

2018-01-01

Studies of transient population dynamics have largely focused on temporal changes in dynamical behaviour, such as the transition between periods of stability and instability. This study explores a related dynamic pattern, namely transient synchrony during a 49-year period among populations of five sympatric species of forest insects that share host tree resources. The...

Simple deterministic models and applications. Comment on "Coupled disease-behavior dynamics on complex networks: A review" by Z. Wang et al.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Hyun Mo

2015-12-01

Currently, discrete modellings are largely accepted due to the access to computers with huge storage capacity and high performance processors and easy implementation of algorithms, allowing to develop and simulate increasingly sophisticated models. Wang et al. [7] present a review of dynamics in complex networks, focusing on the interaction between disease dynamics and human behavioral and social dynamics. By doing an extensive review regarding to the human behavior responding to disease dynamics, the authors briefly describe the complex dynamics found in the literature: well-mixed populations networks, where spatial structure can be neglected, and other networks considering heterogeneity on spatially distributed populations. As controlling mechanisms are implemented, such as social distancing due 'social contagion', quarantine, non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination, adaptive behavior can occur in human population, which can be easily taken into account in the dynamics formulated by networked populations.

Dynamics of polyploid formation and establishment in the allotetraploid rock fern Asplenium majoricum

PubMed Central

Hunt, Harriet V.; Ansell, Stephen W.; Russell, Stephen J.; Schneider, Harald; Vogel, Johannes C.

2011-01-01

Background and Aims Successful establishment of newly formed polyploid species depends on several interlinked genetic and ecological factors. These include genetic diversity within and among individuals, chromosome behaviour and fertility, novel phenotypes resulting from novel genomic make-up and expression, intercytotypic and interspecific competition, and adaptation to distinct habitats. The allotetraploid rock fern Asplenium majoricum is known from one small population in Valencia, Spain, and several larger populations on the Balearic island of Majorca. In Valencia, it occurs sympatrically with its diploid parents, A. fontanum subsp. fontanum and A. petrarchae subsp. bivalens, and their diploid hybrid A. × protomajoricum. This highly unusual situation allowed the study of polyploid genetic diversity and its relationship to the formation and establishment of nascent polyploid lineages. Methods Genetic variation for isozyme and chloroplast DNA markers was determined for A. majoricum and A. × protomajoricum sampled thoroughly from known sites in Majorca and Valencia. Results were compared with variation determined previously for the diploid parent taxa. Key Results A highly dynamic system with recurring diploid hybrid and allotetraploid formation was discovered. High diversity in the small Valencian A. majoricum population indicates multiple de novo origins from diverse parental genotypes, but most of these lineages become extinct without becoming established. The populations on Majorca most probably represent colonization(s) from Valencia rather than an in situ origin. Low genetic diversity suggests that this colonization may have occurred only once. Conclusions There is a striking contrast in success of establishment of the Majorcan and Valencian populations of A. majoricum. Chance founding of populations in a habitat where neither A. fontanum subsp. fontanum nor A. petrarchae subsp. bivalens occurs appears to have been a key factor enabling the establishment of A. majoricum on Majorca. Successful establishment of this polyploid is probably dependent on geographic isolation from diploid progenitor competition. PMID:21593062

Integral projection models for finite populations in a stochastic environment.

PubMed

Vindenes, Yngvild; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2011-05-01

Continuous types of population structure occur when continuous variables such as body size or habitat quality affect the vital parameters of individuals. These structures can give rise to complex population dynamics and interact with environmental conditions. Here we present a model for continuously structured populations with finite size, including both demographic and environmental stochasticity in the dynamics. Using recent methods developed for discrete age-structured models we derive the demographic and environmental variance of the population growth as functions of a continuous state variable. These two parameters, together with the expected population growth rate, are used to define a one-dimensional diffusion approximation of the population dynamics. Thus, a substantial reduction in complexity is achieved as the dynamics of the complex structured model can be described by only three population parameters. We provide methods for numerical calculation of the model parameters and demonstrate the accuracy of the diffusion approximation by computer simulation of specific examples. The general modeling framework makes it possible to analyze and predict future dynamics and extinction risk of populations with various types of structure, and to explore consequences of changes in demography caused by, e.g., climate change or different management decisions. Our results are especially relevant for small populations that are often of conservation concern.

The application of remote sensing techniques to inter and intra urban analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horton, F. E.

1972-01-01

This is an effort to assess the applicability of air and spaceborne photography toward providing data inputs to urban and regional planning, management, and research. Through evaluation of remote sensing inputs to urban change detection systems, analyzing an effort to replicate an existing urban land use data file using remotely sensed data, estimating population and dwelling units from imagery, and by identifying and evaluating a system of urban places ultilizing space photography, it was determined that remote sensing can provide data concerning land use, changes in commercial structure, data for transportation planning, housing quality, residential dynamics, and population density.

[Mechanism of population density compensation in island bumblebee taxocenoses (Hymenoptera, Apidae, Bombus) and the notion of reserve compensatory species].

PubMed

Bolotov, I N; Kolosova, Iu S; Podbolotskaia, M V; Potapov, G S; Grishchenko, I V

2013-01-01

The notion of a dynamic compensatory system is discussed, characterized by the alternation of species occupying the leading position in bumblebee taxocenoses, while the total density of these pollinators in island ecosystems remains at similar levels. The functioning of the compensatory system is regulated by both abiotic factors (the weather and climate) and biotic factors (competition for trophic resources). The stability of the system is determined by the presence of reserve compensatory species capable of rapid population growth against the background of depressed abundance of other species under changing environmental conditions.

A study of the solar wind deceleration in the Earth's foreshock region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, T.-L.; Schwingenschuh, K.; Russell, C. T.

1995-01-01

Previous observations have shown that the solar wind is decelerated and deflected in the earth's upstream region populated by long-period waves. This deceleration is corelated with the 'diffuse' but not with the 'reflected' ion population. The speed of the solar wind may decrease tens of km/s in the foreshock region. The solar wind dynamic pressure exerted on the magnetopause may vary due to the fluctuation of the solar wind speed and density in the foreshock region. In this study, we examine this solar wind deceleration and determine how the solar wind deceleration varies in the foreshock region.

Estimation of a genetically viable population for multigenerational interstellar voyaging: Review and data for project Hyperion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Cameron M.

2014-04-01

Designing interstellar starships for human migration to exoplanets requires establishing the starship population, which factors into many variables including closed-ecosystem design, architecture, mass and propulsion. I review the central issues of population genetics (effects of mutation, migration, selection and drift) for human populations on such voyages, specifically referencing a roughly 5-generation (c. 150-year) voyage currently in the realm of thought among Icarus Interstellar's Project Hyperion research group. I present several formulae as well as concrete numbers that can be used to help determine populations that could survive such journeys in good health. I find that previously proposed such populations, on the order of a few hundred individuals, are significantly too low to consider based on current understanding of vertebrate (including human) genetics and population dynamics. Population genetics theory, calculations and computer modeling determine that a properly screened and age- and sex-structured total founding population (Nc) of anywhere from roughly 14,000 to 44,000 people would be sufficient to survive such journeys in good health. A safe and well-considered Nc figure is 40,000, an Interstellar Migrant Population (IMP) composed of an Effective Population [Ne] of 23,400 reproductive males and females, the rest being pre- or post-reproductive individuals. This number would maintain good health over five generations despite (a) increased inbreeding resulting from a relatively small human population, (b) depressed genetic diversity due to the founder effect, (c) demographic change through time and (d) expectation of at least one severe population catastrophe over the 5-generation voyage.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van de Sande, Jesse; Franx, Marijn; Labbe, Ivo

Recent photometric studies have shown that early-type galaxies at fixed stellar mass were smaller and denser at earlier times. In this Letter, we assess that finding by deriving the dynamical mass of such a compact quiescent galaxy at z = 1.8. We have obtained a high-quality spectrum with full UV-NIR wavelength coverage of galaxy NMBS-C7447 using X-Shooter on the Very Large Telescope. We determined a velocity dispersion of 294 {+-} 51 km s{sup -1}. Given this velocity dispersion and the effective radius of 1.64 {+-} 0.15 kpc (as determined from Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 F160W observations) wemore » derive a dynamical mass of (1.7 {+-} 0.5) x 10{sup 11} M{sub sun}. Comparison of the full spectrum with stellar population synthesis models indicates that NMBS-C774 has a relatively young stellar population (0.40 Gyr) with little or no star formation and a stellar mass of M{sub *} {approx} 1.5 x 10{sup 11} M{sub sun}. The dynamical and photometric stellar masses are in good agreement. Thus, our study supports the conclusion that the mass densities of quiescent galaxies were indeed higher at earlier times, and this earlier result is not caused by systematic measurement errors. By combining available spectroscopic measurements at different redshifts, we find that the velocity dispersion at fixed dynamical mass was a factor of {approx}1.8 higher at z = 1.8 compared with z = 0. Finally, we show that the apparent discrepancies between the few available velocity dispersion measurements at z > 1.5 are consistent with the intrinsic scatter of the mass-size relation.« less

Relationship between population dynamics and the self-energy in driven non-equilibrium systems

DOE PAGES

Kemper, Alexander F.; Freericks, James K.

2016-05-13

We compare the decay rates of excited populations directly calculated within a Keldysh formalism to the equation of motion of the population itself for a Hubbard-Holstein model in two dimensions. While it is true that these two approaches must give the same answer, it is common to make a number of simplifying assumptions, within the differential equation for the populations, that allows one to interpret the decay in terms of hot electrons interacting with a phonon bath. Furthermore, we show how care must be taken to ensure an accurate treatment of the equation of motion for the populations due tomore » the fact that there are identities that require cancellations of terms that naively look like they contribute to the decay rates. In particular, the average time dependence of the Green's functions and self-energies plays a pivotal role in determining these decay rates.« less

Fixation of slightly beneficial mutations: effects of life history.

PubMed

Vindenes, Yngvild; Lee, Aline Magdalena; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2010-04-01

Recent studies of rates of evolution have revealed large systematic differences among organisms with different life histories, both within and among taxa. Here, we consider how life history may affect the rate of evolution via its influence on the fixation probability of slightly beneficial mutations. Our approach is based on diffusion modeling for a finite, stage-structured population with stochastic population dynamics. The results, which are verified by computer simulations, demonstrate that even with complex population structure just two demographic parameters are sufficient to give an accurate approximation of the fixation probability of a slightly beneficial mutation. These are the reproductive value of the stage in which the mutation first occurs and the demographic variance of the population. The demographic variance also determines what influence population size has on the fixation probability. This model represents a substantial generalization of earlier models, covering a large range of life histories.

Word-of-mouth dynamics with information seeking: Information is not (only) epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiriot, Samuel

2018-02-01

Word-of-mouth is known to determine the success or failure of innovations (Rogers, 2003) and facilitate the diffusion of products (Katz and Lazarsfeld, 1955). Word-of-mouth is made of both individuals seeking out information and/or pro-actively spreading information (Gilly et al., 1998; Rogers, 2003). Information seeking is considered as a step mandatory for individuals to retrieve the expert knowledge necessary for them to understand the benefits of an innovation or decide to buy a product (Arndt, 1967; Rogers, 2003). Yet the role of information seeking in the word-of-mouth dynamics was not investigated in computational models. Here we study in which conditions word-of-mouth enables the population to retrieve the initial expertise scattered in the population. We design a computational model in which awareness and expert knowledge are both represented, and study the joint dynamics of information seeking and proactive transmission of information. Simulation experiments highlight the apparition of cascades of awareness, cascades of expertise and chains of information retrieval. We find that different strategies should be used depending on the initial proportion of expertise (disruptive innovations, incremental innovations or products belonging to well-known categories). Surprisingly, when there is too much expertise in the population prior the advertisement campaign, word-of-mouth is less efficient in the retrieval of this expertise than when less expertise is initially present. Our results suggest that information seeking plays a key role in the dynamics of word-of-mouth, which can therefore not be reduced solely to the epidemic aspect.

Infection rates and comparative population dynamics of Peregrinus maidis (Hemiptera: Delphacidae) on corn plants with and without symptoms of maize mosaic virus (Rhabdoviridae: Nucleorhabdovirus) infection.

PubMed

Higashi, C H V; Bressan, A

2013-10-01

We examined the population dynamics of the corn planthopper Peregrinus maidis (Ashmead) (Hemiptera: Delphacidae) throughout a cycle of corn (Zea mays L.) production on plants with or without symptoms of maize mosaic virus (MMV) (Rhabdoviridae: Nucleorhabdovirus) infection. Our results indicate that the timing of MMV plant infection greatly influenced the planthopper's host plant colonization patterns. Corn plants that expressed symptoms of MMV infection early in the crop cycle (28 d after planting) harbored, on average, 40 and 48% fewer planthoppers than plants that expressed symptoms of MMV infection later in the crop cycle (49 d after planting) and asymptomatic plants, respectively. We also observed a change in the number of brachypterous (short-wing type) and macropterous (long-wing type) winged forms produced; plants expressing early symptoms of MMV infection harbored, on average, 41 and 47% more of the brachypterous form than plants with late infections of MMV and plants with no symptoms of MMV, respectively. Furthermore, we determined the rates of MMV-infected planthoppers relative to their wing morphology (macropterous or brachypterous) and gender. MMV infection was 5 and 12% higher in females than in males in field and greenhouse experiments, respectively; however, these differences were not significantly different. This research provides evidence that MMV similarly infects P. maidis planthoppers regardless of the gender and wing morphotype. These results also suggest that the timing of symptom development greatly affects the population dynamics of the planthopper vector, and likely has important consequences for the dynamics of the disease in the field.

The effect of seasonal birth pulses on pathogen persistence in wild mammal populations.

PubMed

Peel, A J; Pulliam, J R C; Luis, A D; Plowright, R K; O'Shea, T J; Hayman, D T S; Wood, J L N; Webb, C T; Restif, O

2014-07-07

The notion of a critical community size (CCS), or population size that is likely to result in long-term persistence of a communicable disease, has been developed based on the empirical observations of acute immunizing infections in human populations, and extended for use in wildlife populations. Seasonal birth pulses are frequently observed in wildlife and are expected to impact infection dynamics, yet their effect on pathogen persistence and CCS have not been considered. To investigate this issue theoretically, we use stochastic epidemiological models to ask how host life-history traits and infection parameters interact to determine pathogen persistence within a closed population. We fit seasonal birth pulse models to data from diverse mammalian species in order to identify realistic parameter ranges. When varying the synchrony of the birth pulse with all other parameters being constant, our model predicted that the CCS can vary by more than two orders of magnitude. Tighter birth pulses tended to drive pathogen extinction by creating large amplitude oscillations in prevalence, especially with high demographic turnover and short infectious periods. Parameters affecting the relative timing of the epidemic and birth pulse peaks determined the intensity and direction of the effect of pre-existing immunity in the population on the pathogen's ability to persist beyond the initial epidemic following its introduction.

The effect of seasonal birth pulses on pathogen persistence in wild mammal populations

PubMed Central

Peel, A. J.; Pulliam, J. R. C.; Luis, A. D.; Plowright, R. K.; O'Shea, T. J.; Hayman, D. T. S.; Wood, J. L. N.; Webb, C. T.; Restif, O.

2014-01-01

The notion of a critical community size (CCS), or population size that is likely to result in long-term persistence of a communicable disease, has been developed based on the empirical observations of acute immunizing infections in human populations, and extended for use in wildlife populations. Seasonal birth pulses are frequently observed in wildlife and are expected to impact infection dynamics, yet their effect on pathogen persistence and CCS have not been considered. To investigate this issue theoretically, we use stochastic epidemiological models to ask how host life-history traits and infection parameters interact to determine pathogen persistence within a closed population. We fit seasonal birth pulse models to data from diverse mammalian species in order to identify realistic parameter ranges. When varying the synchrony of the birth pulse with all other parameters being constant, our model predicted that the CCS can vary by more than two orders of magnitude. Tighter birth pulses tended to drive pathogen extinction by creating large amplitude oscillations in prevalence, especially with high demographic turnover and short infectious periods. Parameters affecting the relative timing of the epidemic and birth pulse peaks determined the intensity and direction of the effect of pre-existing immunity in the population on the pathogen's ability to persist beyond the initial epidemic following its introduction. PMID:24827436

Comparative Genomics Analysis of Streptococcus Isolates from the Human Small Intestine Reveals their Adaptation to a Highly Dynamic Ecosystem

PubMed Central

Van den Bogert, Bartholomeus; Boekhorst, Jos; Herrmann, Ruth; Smid, Eddy J.; Zoetendal, Erwin G.; Kleerebezem, Michiel

2013-01-01

The human small-intestinal microbiota is characterised by relatively large and dynamic Streptococcus populations. In this study, genome sequences of small-intestinal streptococci from S. mitis, S. bovis, and S. salivarius species-groups were determined and compared with those from 58 Streptococcus strains in public databases. The Streptococcus pangenome consists of 12,403 orthologous groups of which 574 are shared among all sequenced streptococci and are defined as the Streptococcus core genome. Genome mining of the small-intestinal streptococci focused on functions playing an important role in the interaction of these streptococci in the small-intestinal ecosystem, including natural competence and nutrient-transport and metabolism. Analysis of the small-intestinal Streptococcus genomes predicts a high capacity to synthesize amino acids and various vitamins as well as substantial divergence in their carbohydrate transport and metabolic capacities, which is in agreement with observed physiological differences between these Streptococcus strains. Gene-specific PCR-strategies enabled evaluation of conservation of Streptococcus populations in intestinal samples from different human individuals, revealing that the S. salivarius strains were frequently detected in the small-intestine microbiota, supporting the representative value of the genomes provided in this study. Finally, the Streptococcus genomes allow prediction of the effect of dietary substances on Streptococcus population dynamics in the human small-intestine. PMID:24386196

How Does a Divided Population Respond to Change?

PubMed Central

Qubbaj, Murad R.; Muneepeerakul, Rachata; Aggarwal, Rimjhim M.; Anderies, John M.

2015-01-01

Most studies on the response of socioeconomic systems to a sudden shift focus on long-term equilibria or end points. Such narrow focus forgoes many valuable insights. Here we examine the transient dynamics of regime shift on a divided population, exemplified by societies divided ideologically, politically, economically, or technologically. Replicator dynamics is used to investigate the complex transient dynamics of the population response. Though simple, our modeling approach exhibits a surprisingly rich and diverse array of dynamics. Our results highlight the critical roles played by diversity in strategies and the magnitude of the shift. Importantly, it allows for a variety of strategies to arise organically as an integral part of the transient dynamics—as opposed to an independent process—of population response to a regime shift, providing a link between the population's past and future diversity patterns. Several combinations of different populations' strategy distributions and shifts were systematically investigated. Such rich dynamics highlight the challenges of anticipating the response of a divided population to a change. The findings in this paper can potentially improve our understanding of a wide range of socio-ecological and technological transitions. PMID:26161859

High population variability and source-sink dynamics in a solitary bee species.

PubMed

Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

2013-06-01

Although solitary bees are considered to play key roles in ecosystem functions, surprisingly few studies have explored their population dynamics. We investigated the population dynamics of a rare, declining, solitary bee (Andrena humilis) in a landscape of 80 km2 in southern Sweden from 2003 to 2011. Only one population was persistent throughout all years studied; most likely this population supplied the surrounding landscape with 11 smaller, temporary local populations. Despite stable pollen availability, the size of the persistent population fluctuated dramatically in a two-year cycle over the nine years, with 490-1230 nests in odd-numbered years and 21-48 nests in even-numbered years. These fluctuations were not significantly related to climatic variables or pollen availability. Nineteen colonization and 14 extinction events were recorded. Occupancy decreased with distance from the persistent population and increased with increasing resource (pollen) availability. There were significant positive correlations between the size of the persistent population and patch occupancy and colonization. Colonizations were generally more common in patches closer to the persistent population, whereas extinctions were independent of distance from the persistent population. Our results highlight the complex population dynamics that exist for this solitary bee species, which could be due to source-sink dynamics, a prolonged diapause, or can represent a bet-hedging strategy to avoid natural enemies and survive in small habitat patches. If large fluctuations in solitary bee populations prove to be widespread, it will have important implications for interpreting ecological relationships, bee conservation, and pollination.

Different effects of variation in Xanthium strumarium L. (Compositae) on two insect seed predators.

PubMed

Hare, J Daniel; Futuyma, Douglas J

1978-01-01

To determine the relative importance of variation in several plant characters on susceptibility to herbivores, we examined patterns of seed predation by two monophagous insect species and patterns of variation in ten populations of the cocklebur, Xanthium strumarium. Multiple regression analysis disclosed that one seed predator was most influenced by plant chemical variation, the other was significantly influenced by both chemical and morphological variation, but variation in yet another character, general burr size, was most important in conferring resistance to both insects simultaneously. The plant populations differed most in this character. Although many of the plant characters were correlated with each other, those important in determining susceptibility to each insect species were uncorrelated and independent of those conferring resistance to both insects simultaneously.These results imply that ecological similar herbivores may be influenced by different aspects of plant variation, and that predictions of evolutionary responses of local plant populations to herbivory may require knowledge of the structure of local herbivore communities and the dynamics of their establishment.

Density dependence in group dynamics of a highly social mongoose, Suricata suricatta.

PubMed

Bateman, Andrew W; Ozgul, Arpat; Coulson, Tim; Clutton-Brock, Tim H

2012-05-01

1. For social species, the link between individual behaviour and population dynamics is mediated by group-level demography. 2. Populations of obligate cooperative breeders are structured into social groups, which may be subject to inverse density dependence (Allee effects) that result from a dependence on conspecific helpers, but evidence for population-wide Allee effects is rare. 3. We use field data from a long-term study of cooperative meerkats (Suricata suricatta; Schreber, 1776) - a species for which local Allee effects are not reflected in population-level dynamics - to empirically model interannual group dynamics. 4. Using phenomenological population models, modified to incorporate environmental conditions and potential Allee effects, we first investigate overall patterns of group dynamics and find support only for conventional density dependence that increases after years of low rainfall. 5. To explain the observed patterns, we examine specific demographic rates and assess their contributions to overall group dynamics. Although per-capita meerkat mortality is subject to a component Allee effect, it contributes relatively little to observed variation in group dynamics, and other (conventionally density dependent) demographic rates - especially emigration - govern group dynamics. 6. Our findings highlight the need to consider demographic processes and density dependence in subpopulations before drawing conclusions about how behaviour affects population processes in socially complex systems. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Locking horns with Hawai‘i’s non-native ungulate issues

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, Steve

2014-01-01

Conservation and management interests for sustained-yield hunting of non-native ungulates in Hawai‘i have conflicted with the conservation of native biota for several decades. Hawaiian ecosystems evolved in the absence of large mammals and all currently hunted animals in Hawai‘i are non-native species. The best-studied aspects of Hawai‘i’s ungulates have dealt primarily with direct negative effects on native biota in natural areas, but there has been little research in population dynamics for sustained-yield management. Ungulates have been removed from approximately 750 km2 throughout the Hawaiian Islands to protect these natural areas, thereby reducing the amount of land area available for hunting activities and the maintenance of game populations. At the same time, unauthorized introductions of additional wild ungulate species between Hawaiian Islands have recently increased in frequency. The majority of hunting activities are of feral domestic livestock species for subsistence purposes, which typically do not generate sufficient revenue to offset costs of game management. Moreover, bag limits and seasons are generally not determined from biological criteria because harvest reporting is voluntary and game populations are rarely monitored. Consequently, ungulate populations cannot be managed for any particular level of abundance or other objectives. Research and monitoring which emphasize population dynamics and productivity would enable more precisely regulated sustained-yield game management programs and may reduce potential conflicts with the conservation of native biota.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vassilevska, Tanya

This is the first code, designed to run on a desktop, which models the intracellular replication and the cell-to-cell infection and demonstrates virus evolution at the molecular level. This code simulates the infection of a population of "idealized biological cells" (represented as objects that do not divide or have metabolism) with "virus" (represented by its genetic sequence), the replication and simultaneous mutation of the virus which leads to evolution of the population of genetically diverse viruses. The code is built to simulate single-stranded RNA viruses. The input for the code is 1. the number of biological cells in the culture,more » 2. the initial composition of the virus population, 3. the reference genome of the RNA virus, 4. the coordinates of the genome regions and their significance and, 5. parameters determining the dynamics of virus replication, such as the mutation rate. The simulation ends when all cells have been infected or when no more infections occurs after a given number of attempts. The code has the ability to simulate the evolution of the virus in serial passage of cell "cultures", i.e. after the end of a simulation, a new one is immediately scheduled with a new culture of infected cells. The code outputs characteristics of the resulting virus population dynamics and genetic composition of the virus population, such as the top dominant genomes, percentage of a genome with specific characteristics.« less

Population dynamics of the diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (L.), in northern China: the effects of migration, cropping patterns and climate.

PubMed

Zhu, Liuhong; Li, Zhenyu; Zhang, Shufa; Xu, Baoyun; Zhang, Youjun; Zalucki, Myron P; Wu, Qingjun; Yin, Xianhui

2018-02-08

The diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (L.), is the most widely distributed pest of Brassica vegetables. Control of P. xylostella has relied on insecticides and it has developed resistance to most insecticides. Although research has clarified the resistance status of P. xylostella and the mechanisms of its resistance in northern China, little work has been conducted on long-term population dynamics in the key vegetable-growing areas of the region. We reviewed and summarized the history of P. xylostella field management practices in northern China (Haidian, Changping, Xuanhua and Zhangbei). Moths were caught in pheromone traps throughout the cropping season and P. xylostella phenology and the general trends in abundance were analysed using DYMEX modelling software. The initial input in the spring determined population size in all years. The seasonal phenology and variation in abundance in most years and sites were simulated, suggesting that the suitable climate creates the conditions for population outbreaks, and growers' actual management level (spraying and crop hygiene) influenced population abundance. Based on climate and using the timing of the initial peak in pheromone trap captures as a biofix, the timing of emergence of the next generation can be forecast, and more effective scouting and regional management strategies against this pest can be developed. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry.

Comparative phylogeny and historical perspectives on population genetics of the Pacific hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata) and green turtles (Chelonia mydas), inferred from feeding populations in the Yaeyama Islands, Japan.

PubMed

Nishizawa, Hideaki; Okuyama, Junichi; Kobayashi, Masato; Abe, Osamu; Arai, Nobuaki

2010-01-01

Mitochondrial DNA sequence polymorphisms and patterns of genetic diversity represent the genealogy and relative impacts of historical, geographic, and demographic events on populations. In this study, historical patterns of population dynamics and differentiation in hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata) and green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in the Pacific were estimated from feeding populations in the Yaeyama Islands, Japan. Phylogenetic relationships of the haplotypes indicated that hawksbill and green turtles in the Pacific probably underwent very similar patterns and processes of population dynamics over the last million years, with population subdivision during the early Pleistocene and population expansion after the last glacial maximum. These significant contemporary historical events were suggested to have been caused by climatic and sea-level fluctuations. On the other hand, comparing our results to long-term population dynamics in the Atlantic, population subdivisions during the early Pleistocene were specific to Pacific hawksbill and green turtles. Therefore, regional differences in historical population dynamics are suggested. Despite limited sampling locations, these results are the first step in estimating the historical trends in Pacific sea turtles by using phylogenetics and population genetics.

Effects of climate change on long-term population growth of pronghorn in an arid environment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gedir, Jay V.; Cain, James W.; Harris, Grant; Turnbull, Trey T.

2015-01-01

Climate often drives ungulate population dynamics, and as climates change, some areas may become unsuitable for species persistence. Unraveling the relationships between climate and population dynamics, and projecting them across time, advances ecological understanding that informs and steers sustainable conservation for species. Using pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) as an ecological model, we used a Bayesian approach to analyze long-term population, precipitation, and temperature data from 18 populations in the southwestern United States. We determined which long-term (12 and 24 months) or short-term (gestation trimester and lactation period) climatic conditions best predicted annual rate of population growth (λ). We used these predictions to project population trends through 2090. Projections incorporated downscaled climatic data matched to pronghorn range for each population, given a high and a lower atmospheric CO2 concentration scenario. Since the 1990s, 15 of the pronghorn populations declined in abundance. Sixteen populations demonstrated a significant relationship between precipitation and λ, and in 13 of these, temperature was also significant. Precipitation predictors of λ were highly seasonal, with lactation being the most important period, followed by early and late gestation. The influence of temperature on λ was less seasonal than precipitation, and lacked a clear temporal pattern. The climatic projections indicated that all of these pronghorn populations would experience increased temperatures, while the direction and magnitude of precipitation had high population-specific variation. Models predicted that nine populations would be extirpated or approaching extirpation by 2090. Results were consistent across both atmospheric CO2 concentration scenarios, indicating robustness of trends irrespective of climatic severity. In the southwestern United States, the climate underpinning pronghorn populations is shifting, making conditions increasingly inhospitable to pronghorn persistence. This realization informs and steers conservation and management decisions for pronghorn in North America, while exemplifying how similar research can aid ungulates inhabiting arid regions and confronting similar circumstances elsewhere.

Dynamics of change in local physician supply: an ecological perspective.

PubMed

Jiang, H Joanna; Begun, James W

2002-05-01

The purpose of this study is to employ an ecological framework to identify factors that have an impact on change in local physician supply within the USA. A particular specialty type of patient care physicians in a local market is defined as a physician population. Four physician populations are identified: generalists, medical specialists, surgical specialists, and hospital-based specialists. Based on population ecology theory, the proposed framework explains the growth of a particular physician population by four mechanisms: the intrinsic properties of this physician population; the local market's carrying capacity, which is determined by three environmental dimensions (munificence, concentration, diversity); competition within the same physician population; and interdependence between different physician populations. Data at the level of Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) were compiled from the US Area Resources File, the American Hospital Association Annual Surveys of Hospitals, the American Medical Association Census of Medical Groups, the InterStudy National HMO Census, and the US County Business Patterns. Changes in the number and percentage of physicians in a particular specialty population from 1985 to 1994 were regressed, respectively, on 1985-94 changes in the explanatory variables as well as their levels in 1985. The results indicate that the population ecology framework is useful in explaining dynamics of change in the local physician workforce. Variables measuring the three environmental dimensions were found to have significant, and in some cases, differential effects on change in the size of different specialty populations. For example, both hospital consolidation and managed care penetration showed significant positive eflects on growth of the generalist population but suppressing effects on growth of the specialist population. The percentage of physicians in a particular specialty population in 1985 was negatively related to change in the size of that specialty population between 1985 and 1994, suggesting the existence of competition. Overall, the findings of this study facilitate a better understanding of the complexity of physician workforce supply.

Using a common commensal bacterium in endangered Takahe as a model to explore pathogen dynamics in isolated wildlife populations.

PubMed

Grange, Zoe L; Gartrell, Brett D; Biggs, Patrick J; Nelson, Nicola J; Marshall, Jonathan C; Howe, Laryssa; Balm, Matthew G M; French, Nigel P

2015-10-01

Predicting and preventing outbreaks of infectious disease in endangered wildlife is problematic without an understanding of the biotic and abiotic factors that influence pathogen transmission and the genetic variation of microorganisms within and between these highly modified host communities. We used a common commensal bacterium, Campylobacter spp., in endangered Takahe (Porphyrio hochstetteri) populations to develop a model with which to study pathogen dynamics in isolated wildlife populations connected through ongoing translocations. Takahe are endemic to New Zealand, where their total population is approximately 230 individuals. Takahe were translocated from a single remnant wild population to multiple offshore and mainland reserves. Several fragmented subpopulations are maintained and connected through regular translocations. We tested 118 Takahe from 8 locations for fecal Campylobacter spp. via culture and DNA extraction and used PCR for species assignment. Factors relating to population connectivity and host life history were explored using multivariate analytical methods to determine associations between host variables and bacterial prevalence. The apparent prevalence of Campylobacter spp. in Takahe was 99%, one of the highest reported in avian populations. Variation in prevalence was evident among Campylobacter species identified. C. sp. nova 1 (90%) colonized the majority of Takahe tested. Prevalence of C. jejuni (38%) and C. coli (24%) was different between Takahe subpopulations, and this difference was associated with factors related to population management, captivity, rearing environment, and the presence of agricultural practices in the location in which birds were sampled. Modeling results of Campylobacter spp. in Takahe metapopulations suggest that anthropogenic management of endangered species within altered environments may have unforeseen effects on microbial exposure, carriage, and disease risk. Translocation of wildlife between locations could have unpredictable consequences including the spread of novel microbes between isolated populations. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Population viability analysis: using a modeling tool to assess the viability of tapir populations in fragmented landscapes.

PubMed

Medici, Emília Patrícia; Desbiez, Arnaud Leonard Jean

2012-12-01

A population viability analysis (PVA) was conducted of the lowland tapir populations in the Atlantic Forest of the Pontal do Paranapanema region, Brazil, including Morro do Diabo State Park (MDSP) and surrounding forest fragments. Results from the model projected that the population of 126 tapirs in MDSP is likely to persist over the next 100 years; however, 200 tapirs would be required to maintain a viable population. Sensitivity analysis showed that sub-adult mortality and adult mortality have the strongest influence on the dynamics of lowland tapir populations. High road-kill has a major impact on the MDSP tapir population and can lead to population extinction. Metapopulation modeling showed that dispersal of tapirs from MDSP to the surrounding fragments can be detrimental to the overall metapopulation, as fragments act as sinks. Nevertheless, the model showed that under certain conditions the maintenance of the metapopulation dynamics might be determinant for the persistence of tapirs in the region, particularly in the smaller fragments. The establishment of corridors connecting MDSP to the forest fragments models resulted in an increase in the stochastic growth rate, making tapirs more resilient to threats and catastrophes, but only if rates of mortality were not increased when using corridors. The PVA showed that the conservation of tapirs in the Pontal region depends on: the effective protection of MDSP; maintenance and, whenever possible, enhancement of the functional connectivity of the landscape, reducing mortality during dispersal and threats in the unprotected forest fragments; and neutralization of all threats affecting tapirs in the smaller forest fragments. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

Stochastic foundations in nonlinear density-regulation growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Horsthemke, Werner; Campos, Daniel

2017-08-01

In this work we construct individual-based models that give rise to the generalized logistic model at the mean-field deterministic level and that allow us to interpret the parameters of these models in terms of individual interactions. We also study the effect of internal fluctuations on the long-time dynamics for the different models that have been widely used in the literature, such as the theta-logistic and Savageau models. In particular, we determine the conditions for population extinction and calculate the mean time to extinction. If the population does not become extinct, we obtain analytical expressions for the population abundance distribution. Our theoretical results are based on WKB theory and the probability generating function formalism and are verified by numerical simulations.

Food web structure in the recently flooded Sep Reservoir as inferred from phytoplankton population dynamics and living microbial biomass.

PubMed

Tadonléké, R D; Jugnia, L B; Sime-Ngando, T; Devaux, J; Romagoux, J C

2002-01-01

Phytoplankton dynamics, bacterial standing stocks and living microbial biomass (derived from ATP measurements, 0.7-200 mm size class) were examined in 1996 in the newly flooded (1995) Sep Reservoir ('Massif Central,' France), for evidence of the importance of the microbial food web relative to the traditional food chain. Phosphate concentrations were low, N:P ratios were high, and phosphate losses converted into carbon accounted for <50% of phytoplankton biomass and production, indicating that P was limiting phytoplankton development during the study. The observed low availability of P contrasts with the high release of "directly" assimilable P often reported in newly flooded reservoirs, suggesting that factors determining nutrient dynamics in such ecosystems are complex. The phosphate availability, but also the water column stability, seemed to be among the major factors determining phytoplankton dynamics, as (i) large-size phytoplankton species were prominent during the period of increasing water column stability, whereas small-size species dominated phytoplankton assemblages during the period of decreasing stability, and (ii) a Dinobryon divergens bloom occurred during a period when inorganic P was undetectable, coinciding with the lowest values of bacterial standing stocks. Indication of grazing limitation of bacterial populations by the mixotrophic chrysophyte D. divergens (in late spring) and by other potential grazers (mainly rotifers in summer) seemed to be confirmed by the Model II or functional slopes of the bacterial vs phytoplankton regressions, which were always <0.63. Phytoplankton biomass was not correlated with phosphorus sources and its contribution was remarkably low relative to the living microbial biomass which, in contrast, was positively correlated with total phosphorus in summer. We conclude that planktonic microheterotrophs are strongly implicated in the phosphorus dynamics in the Sep Reservoir, and thus support the idea that an important amount of matter and energy flows through the "microbial loop" and food web, shortly after the flooding of a reservoir.

Population and Environment

PubMed Central

de Sherbinin, Alex; Carr, David; Cassels, Susan; Jiang, Leiwen

2009-01-01

The interactions between human population dynamics and the environment have often been viewed mechanistically. This review elucidates the complexities and contextual specificities of population-environment relationships in a number of domains. It explores the ways in which demographers and other social scientists have sought to understand the relationships among a full range of population dynamics (e.g., population size, growth, density, age and sex composition, migration, urbanization, vital rates) and environmental changes. The chapter briefly reviews a number of the theories for understanding population and the environment and then proceeds to provide a state-of-the-art review of studies that have examined population dynamics and their relationship to five environmental issue areas. The review concludes by relating population-environment research to emerging work on human-environment systems. PMID:20011237

Antagonisms, mutualisms and commensalisms affect outbreak dynamics of the southern pine beetle

Treesearch

Richard W. Hofstetter; James T. Cronin; Kier D. Klepzig; John C. Moser; Matthew P. Ayres

2005-01-01

Feedback from community interactions involving mutualisms are a rarely explored mechanism for generating complex population dynamics. We examined the effects of two linked mutualisms on the population dynamics of a beetle that exhibits outbreak dynamics. One mutualism involves an obligate association between the bark beetle, Dendroctonus frontalis...

Modelling the social and structural determinants of tuberculosis: opportunities and challenges

PubMed Central

Boccia, D.; Dodd, P. J.; Lönnroth, K.; Dowdy, D. W.; Siroka, A.; Kimerling, M. E.; White, R. G.; Houben, R. M. G. J.

2017-01-01

INTRODUCTION: Despite the close link between tuberculosis (TB) and poverty, most mathematical models of TB have not addressed underlying social and structural determinants. OBJECTIVE: To review studies employing mathematical modelling to evaluate the epidemiological impact of the structural determinants of TB. METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed and personal libraries to identify eligible articles. We extracted data on the modelling techniques employed, research question, types of structural determinants modelled and setting. RESULTS: From 232 records identified, we included eight articles published between 2008 and 2015; six employed population-based dynamic TB transmission models and two non-dynamic analytic models. Seven studies focused on proximal TB determinants (four on nutritional status, one on wealth, one on indoor air pollution, and one examined overcrowding, socioeconomic and nutritional status), and one focused on macro-economic influences. CONCLUSIONS: Few modelling studies have attempted to evaluate structural determinants of TB, resulting in key knowledge gaps. Despite the challenges of modelling such a complex system, models must broaden their scope to remain useful for policy making. Given the intersectoral nature of the interrelations between structural determinants and TB outcomes, this work will require multidisciplinary collaborations. A useful starting point would be to focus on developing relatively simple models that can strengthen our knowledge regarding the potential effect of the structural determinants on TB outcomes. PMID:28826444

Population Genetic Analysis of Theileria annulata from Six Geographical Regions in China, Determined on the Basis of Micro- and Mini-satellite Markers

PubMed Central

Yin, Fangyuan; Liu, Zhijie; Liu, Junlong; Liu, Aihong; Salih, Diaeldin A.; Li, Youquan; Liu, Guangyuan; Luo, Jianxun; Guan, Guiquan; Yin, Hong

2018-01-01

Theileria annulata, a tick-borne apicomplexan protozoan, causes a lymphoproliferative disease of cattle with high prevalence in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Understanding the genetic diversity and structure of local populations will provide more fundamental knowledge for the population genetics and epidemics of protozoa. In this study, 78 samples of T. annulata collected from cattle/yaks representing 6 different geographic populations in China were genotyped using eight micro- and mini-satellite markers. High genetic variation within population, moderate genetic differentiation, and high level of diversity co-occurring with significant linkage disequilibrium were observed, which indicates there is gene flow between these populations in spite of the existence of reproductive and geographical barriers among populations. Furthermore, some degree of genetic differentiation was also found between samples from China and Oman. These findings provide a first glimpse of the genetic diversity of the T. annulata populations in China, and might contribute to the knowledge of distribution, dynamics, and epidemiology of T. annulata populations and optimize the management strategies for control. PMID:29515624

Conformational ensembles of RNA oligonucleotides from integrating NMR and molecular simulations.

PubMed

Bottaro, Sandro; Bussi, Giovanni; Kennedy, Scott D; Turner, Douglas H; Lindorff-Larsen, Kresten

2018-05-01

RNA molecules are key players in numerous cellular processes and are characterized by a complex relationship between structure, dynamics, and function. Despite their apparent simplicity, RNA oligonucleotides are very flexible molecules, and understanding their internal dynamics is particularly challenging using experimental data alone. We show how to reconstruct the conformational ensemble of four RNA tetranucleotides by combining atomistic molecular dynamics simulations with nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy data. The goal is achieved by reweighting simulations using a maximum entropy/Bayesian approach. In this way, we overcome problems of current simulation methods, as well as in interpreting ensemble- and time-averaged experimental data. We determine the populations of different conformational states by considering several nuclear magnetic resonance parameters and point toward properties that are not captured by state-of-the-art molecular force fields. Although our approach is applied on a set of model systems, it is fully general and may be used to study the conformational dynamics of flexible biomolecules and to detect inaccuracies in molecular dynamics force fields.

The effect of travel loss on evolutionarily stable distributions of populations in space

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeAngelis, D.L.; Wolkowicz, G.S.K.; Lou, Y.; Jiang, Y.; Novak, M.; Svanback, R.; Araujo, M.S.; Jo, Y.S.; Cleary, E.A.

2011-01-01

A key assumption of the ideal free distribution (IFD) is that there are no costs in moving between habitat patches. However, because many populations exhibit more or less continuous population movement between patches and traveling cost is a frequent factor, it is important to determine the effects of costs on expected population movement patterns and spatial distributions. We consider a food chain (tritrophic or bitrophic) in which one species moves between patches, with energy cost or mortality risk in movement. In the two-patch case, assuming forced movement in one direction, an evolutionarily stable strategy requires bidirectional movement, even if costs during movement are high. In the N-patch case, assuming that at least one patch is linked bidirectionally to all other patches, optimal movement rates can lead to source-sink dynamics where patches with negative growth rates are maintained by other patches with positive growth rates. As well, dispersal between patches is not balanced (even in the two-patch case), leading to a deviation from the IFD. Our results indicate that cost-associated forced movement can have important consequences for spatial metapopulation dynamics. Relevance to marine reserve design and the study of stream communities subject to drift is discussed. ?? 2011 by The University of Chicago.

A Two-Year Ecological Study of Norway Rats (Rattus norvegicus) in a Brazilian Urban Slum.

PubMed

Panti-May, Jesús A; Carvalho-Pereira, Ticiana S A; Serrano, Soledad; Pedra, Gabriel G; Taylor, Josh; Pertile, Arsinoê C; Minter, Amanda; Airam, Vladimir; Carvalho, Mayara; Júnior, Nivison N; Rodrigues, Gorete; Reis, Mitermayer G; Ko, Albert I; Childs, James E; Begon, Mike; Costa, Federico

2016-01-01

The Norway or brown rat (Rattus norvegicus) is among the most ubiquitous of rodents. However, the lack of studies describing Norway rat populations from tropical areas have limited our understanding regarding their demography and seasonal dynamics. In this study, we describe seasonal pattern in the abundance, reproductive parameters, and morphometrics of Norway rat populations in Salvador, Brazil. Rodents were trapped over four seasonal trapping periods (2013-2014) from three valleys. A total of 802 Norway rats were trapped over the course of the study over 7653 trap-nights. Norway rat abundance was high, but there was no significant differences between seasons. The reproductive parameters (e.g. frequency of pregnant and lactating females) did not show statistical differences between seasons. Female rats collected in the rainy season were heavier and older than females from the dry season. Salvador rats had a high incidence of pregnancy and birth rate (estimated birth rate of 79 young per year) compared to previous studies. The information generated is critical for the understanding of the ecology of Norway rat, the main reservoir of Leptospira in Salvador. However, future studies examining the effect of rodent control programs aimed at reducing populations, and determining rates of recovery, will further clarify our understanding of population dynamics.

A Two-Year Ecological Study of Norway Rats (Rattus norvegicus) in a Brazilian Urban Slum

PubMed Central

Panti-May, Jesús A.; Carvalho-Pereira, Ticiana S. A.; Serrano, Soledad; Pedra, Gabriel G.; Taylor, Josh; Pertile, Arsinoê C.; Minter, Amanda; Airam, Vladimir; Carvalho, Mayara; Júnior, Nivison N.; Rodrigues, Gorete; Reis, Mitermayer G.; Ko, Albert I.; Childs, James E.; Begon, Mike; Costa, Federico

2016-01-01

The Norway or brown rat (Rattus norvegicus) is among the most ubiquitous of rodents. However, the lack of studies describing Norway rat populations from tropical areas have limited our understanding regarding their demography and seasonal dynamics. In this study, we describe seasonal pattern in the abundance, reproductive parameters, and morphometrics of Norway rat populations in Salvador, Brazil. Rodents were trapped over four seasonal trapping periods (2013–2014) from three valleys. A total of 802 Norway rats were trapped over the course of the study over 7653 trap-nights. Norway rat abundance was high, but there was no significant differences between seasons. The reproductive parameters (e.g. frequency of pregnant and lactating females) did not show statistical differences between seasons. Female rats collected in the rainy season were heavier and older than females from the dry season. Salvador rats had a high incidence of pregnancy and birth rate (estimated birth rate of 79 young per year) compared to previous studies. The information generated is critical for the understanding of the ecology of Norway rat, the main reservoir of Leptospira in Salvador. However, future studies examining the effect of rodent control programs aimed at reducing populations, and determining rates of recovery, will further clarify our understanding of population dynamics. PMID:27015422

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cacciari, C.; Clementini, G.

Attention is given to the folowing topics: population I and II variable stars; LP variables, the sun, and mass determination; and predegenerate and degenerate variables. Particular papers are presented on alternative evolutionary approaches to the absolute magnitude of the RR Lyrae variables; the evolution of the Cepheid stars; nonradial pulsations in rapidly rotating Delta Scuti stars; dynamical models of dust shells around Mira variables; and pulsations of central stars of planetary nebulae.

The terrestrial ring current - From in situ measurements to global images using energetic neutral atoms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roelof, Edmond C.; Williams, Donald J.

1988-01-01

Electrical currents flowing in the equatorial magnetosphere, first inferred from ground-based magnetic disturbances, are carried by trapped energetic ions. Spacecraft measurements have determined the spectrum and composition of those currents, and the newly developed technique of energetic-neutral-atom imaging allows the global dynamics of that entire ion population to be viewed from a single spacecraft.

Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors.

PubMed

Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V

2013-09-01

Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis , the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001-2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057-2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses-including altered phenology-of disease vectors to altered climate.

Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors

PubMed Central

Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H.; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S.; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V.

2014-01-01

Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001–2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057–2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses—including altered phenology—of disease vectors to altered climate. PMID:24772388

Soybean Yield and Heterodera glycines Population Dynamics as Affected by Cultural Practices in Major Production Areas of the United States and Canada

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Little information is available on the interactive effects of tillage and row spacing on yield of soybean and population dynamics of H. glycines. This study investigated the effects of rotation of soybean and corn, tillage, row spacing, and cultivar on yield of soybean and population dynamics of H. ...

Stand development and population dynamics of curlleaf mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus ledifolius Nutt.) woodlands in Utah's Bear River Mountains

Treesearch

Seth A. Ex; Robert DeRose; James N. Long

2011-01-01

Curlleaf mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus ledifolius Nutt.) is a little-studied woodland tree that occurs in pure stands throughout the Intermountain West. Stand development and population dynamics of this species are poorly understood, despite their relevance to management. We describe here the development of stand age structures and population dynamics of mahogany...

Strong optical field ionisation of solids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, C. R.; Ben Taher, A.; Brabec, T.

2017-11-01

Population transfer from the valence to conduction band in the presence of an intense laser field is explored theoretically in semiconductors and dielectrics. Experiments performed on dielectrics exposed to an intense laser field have divulged a population dynamics between valence and conduction band that differs from that observed in semiconductors. Our paper explores two aspects of ionisation in solids. (i) Contemporary ionisation theories do not take account of the coupling between the valence and conduction bands resulting in the absence the dynamic Stark shift. Our single-particle analysis identifies the absence of the dynamic Stark shift as a possible cause for the contrasting ionisation behaviours observed in dielectric and semiconductor materials. The dynamic Stark shift results in an increased bandgap as the laser intensity is increased. This suppresses ionisation to an extent where the main population dynamics results from virtual oscillations in the conduction band population. The dynamic Stark shift mainly affects larger bandgap materials which can be exposed to decidedly higher laser intensities. (ii) In the presence of laser dressed virtual population of the conduction band, elastic collisions potentially transmute virtual into real population resulting in ionisation. This process is explored in the context of the relaxation time approximation.

A Theoretical Approach to Understanding Population Dynamics with Seasonal Developmental Durations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lou, Yijun; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2017-04-01

There is a growing body of biological investigations to understand impacts of seasonally changing environmental conditions on population dynamics in various research fields such as single population growth and disease transmission. On the other side, understanding the population dynamics subject to seasonally changing weather conditions plays a fundamental role in predicting the trends of population patterns and disease transmission risks under the scenarios of climate change. With the host-macroparasite interaction as a motivating example, we propose a synthesized approach for investigating the population dynamics subject to seasonal environmental variations from theoretical point of view, where the model development, basic reproduction ratio formulation and computation, and rigorous mathematical analysis are involved. The resultant model with periodic delay presents a novel term related to the rate of change of the developmental duration, bringing new challenges to dynamics analysis. By investigating a periodic semiflow on a suitably chosen phase space, the global dynamics of a threshold type is established: all solutions either go to zero when basic reproduction ratio is less than one, or stabilize at a positive periodic state when the reproduction ratio is greater than one. The synthesized approach developed here is applicable to broader contexts of investigating biological systems with seasonal developmental durations.

Systems thinking in combating infectious diseases.

PubMed

Xia, Shang; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Liu, Jiming

2017-09-11

The transmission of infectious diseases is a dynamic process determined by multiple factors originating from disease pathogens and/or parasites, vector species, and human populations. These factors interact with each other and demonstrate the intrinsic mechanisms of the disease transmission temporally, spatially, and socially. In this article, we provide a comprehensive perspective, named as systems thinking, for investigating disease dynamics and associated impact factors, by means of emphasizing the entirety of a system's components and the complexity of their interrelated behaviors. We further develop the general steps for performing systems approach to tackling infectious diseases in the real-world settings, so as to expand our abilities to understand, predict, and mitigate infectious diseases.

Optimal dose selection accounting for patient subpopulations in a randomized Phase II trial to maximize the success probability of a subsequent Phase III trial.

PubMed

Takahashi, Fumihiro; Morita, Satoshi

2018-02-08

Phase II clinical trials are conducted to determine the optimal dose of the study drug for use in Phase III clinical trials while also balancing efficacy and safety. In conducting these trials, it may be important to consider subpopulations of patients grouped by background factors such as drug metabolism and kidney and liver function. Determining the optimal dose, as well as maximizing the effectiveness of the study drug by analyzing patient subpopulations, requires a complex decision-making process. In extreme cases, drug development has to be terminated due to inadequate efficacy or severe toxicity. Such a decision may be based on a particular subpopulation. We propose a Bayesian utility approach (BUART) to randomized Phase II clinical trials which uses a first-order bivariate normal dynamic linear model for efficacy and safety in order to determine the optimal dose and study population in a subsequent Phase III clinical trial. We carried out a simulation study under a wide range of clinical scenarios to evaluate the performance of the proposed method in comparison with a conventional method separately analyzing efficacy and safety in each patient population. The proposed method showed more favorable operating characteristics in determining the optimal population and dose.

Dancing to the rhythms of the Pleistocene? Early Middle Paleolithic population dynamics in NW Iberia (Duero Basin and Cantabrian Region)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez Yustos, Policarpo; Diez Martín, Fernando

2015-08-01

The Northwest of Iberia has yielded one of the most complete European Middle Paleolithic records. Despite this wealth of information, very little is known about population dynamics during this period. For that reason, the main concern of this paper is to provide socio-environmental models that may help explain Early Middle Paleolithic (EMP) population dynamics in NW Iberia, assessing to what extent they were shaped by climate forces. The archaeological record is analyzed on the basis of the heuristics of ecological models, already employed in the European Pleistocene record but never at a regional scale, in order to detect long-term changes in the composition of EMP populations, and the environmental, biological and sociocultural process influencing those changes. According to the models proposed, we have detected a long-term population dynamic between MIS 11 and MIS 6, characterized by low environmental stress, high biological productivity, interaction among populations and sociocultural complexity. Eventually, this population dynamic was broken due to an extreme climate phase in late MIS 6 that had a profound impact on populations and sociocultural structures. As a result, the Upper Pleistocene population of NW Iberia was concentrated in the Cantabrian region. This area became an isolated Neanderthal glacial refugium that hosted a population with different origins and fragile long-term demographic stability.

[The impact of public health system on mortality of malignant neoplasms in Voronezh oblast].

PubMed

Chesnokov, P E; Kuralesina, E N

2013-01-01

The total mortality and population mortality of main classes of diseases and single causes of death are to be considered in operative and strategic planning of development of national economy and industry In the Russian Federation, the decrease of mortality of neoplasms including malignant ones up to 190 per 100 000 of population in 2020 will be one of indicators of effectiveness of implementation of the State program of development of public health in the Russian Federation. The study was organized to determine the possibility to impact the level and dynamics of mortality of malignant neoplasms by means of variation of managed factors on the basis of indicators of activity of public health system. The main indicators of population health and activity of health institutions of Voronezh oblast were analyzed. The methods of mathematical statistics, management theory, system analysis and mathematical modeling were applied. To study the impact of managed factors on mortality of malignant neoplasms on the territory of Voronezh oblast the analysis of correlation interdependency was applied concerning 162 factors characterizing condition and activity of public health system according oblast districts and level of mortality of malignant neoplasms among adult population. The combinations of factors were calculated using the model to determine the level of prospective mortality to come in certain time after implementation of activities changing the given levels of factors. The data concerning qualitative interrelationship of indicators of condition and functioning of network of health institutions with indicators of level and dynamics of mortality of malignant neoplasms can be applied to model and forecast and to evaluate the current and forthcoming situation according indicators of mentioned mortality on the territory of Voronezh oblast in development of comprehensive plan of activities targeted to decreasing of this indicator.

The nature and nurture of cell heterogeneity: accounting for macrophage gene-environment interactions with single-cell RNA-Seq.

PubMed

Wills, Quin F; Mellado-Gomez, Esther; Nolan, Rory; Warner, Damien; Sharma, Eshita; Broxholme, John; Wright, Benjamin; Lockstone, Helen; James, William; Lynch, Mark; Gonzales, Michael; West, Jay; Leyrat, Anne; Padilla-Parra, Sergi; Filippi, Sarah; Holmes, Chris; Moore, Michael D; Bowden, Rory

2017-01-07

Single-cell RNA-Seq can be a valuable and unbiased tool to dissect cellular heterogeneity, despite the transcriptome's limitations in describing higher functional phenotypes and protein events. Perhaps the most important shortfall with transcriptomic 'snapshots' of cell populations is that they risk being descriptive, only cataloging heterogeneity at one point in time, and without microenvironmental context. Studying the genetic ('nature') and environmental ('nurture') modifiers of heterogeneity, and how cell population dynamics unfold over time in response to these modifiers is key when studying highly plastic cells such as macrophages. We introduce the programmable Polaris™ microfluidic lab-on-chip for single-cell sequencing, which performs live-cell imaging while controlling for the culture microenvironment of each cell. Using gene-edited macrophages we demonstrate how previously unappreciated knockout effects of SAMHD1, such as an altered oxidative stress response, have a large paracrine signaling component. Furthermore, we demonstrate single-cell pathway enrichments for cell cycle arrest and APOBEC3G degradation, both associated with the oxidative stress response and altered proteostasis. Interestingly, SAMHD1 and APOBEC3G are both HIV-1 inhibitors ('restriction factors'), with no known co-regulation. As single-cell methods continue to mature, so will the ability to move beyond simple 'snapshots' of cell populations towards studying the determinants of population dynamics. By combining single-cell culture, live-cell imaging, and single-cell sequencing, we have demonstrated the ability to study cell phenotypes and microenvironmental influences. It's these microenvironmental components - ignored by standard single-cell workflows - that likely determine how macrophages, for example, react to inflammation and form treatment resistant HIV reservoirs.

The influence of agroforestry and other land-use types on the persistence of a Sumatran tiger (Panthera tigris sumatrae) population: an individual-based model approach.

PubMed

Imron, Muhammad Ali; Herzog, Sven; Berger, Uta

2011-08-01

The importance of preserving both protected areas and their surrounding landscapes as one of the major conservation strategies for tigers has received attention over recent decades. However, the mechanism of how land-use surrounding protected areas affects the dynamics of tiger populations is poorly understood. We developed Panthera Population Persistence (PPP)--an individual-based model--to investigate the potential mechanism of the Sumatran tiger population dynamics in a protected area and under different land-use scenarios surrounding the reserve. We tested three main landscape compositions (single, combined and real land-uses of Tesso-Nilo National Park and its surrounding area) on the probability of and time to extinction of the Sumatran tiger over 20 years in Central Sumatra. The model successfully explains the mechanisms behind the population response of tigers under different habitat landscape compositions. Feeding and mating behaviours of tigers are key factors, which determined population persistence in a heterogeneous landscape. All single land-use scenarios resulted in tiger extinction but had a different probability of extinction within 20 years. If tropical forest was combined with other land-use types, the probability of extinction was smaller. The presence of agroforesty and logging concessions adjacent to protected areas encouraged the survival of tiger populations. However, with the real land-use scenario of Tesso-Nilo National Park, tigers could not survive for more than 10 years. Promoting the practice of agroforestry systems surrounding the park is probably the most reasonable way to steer land-use surrounding the Tesso-Nilo National Park to support tiger conservation.

Impact of external sources of infection on the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in modelled badger populations.

PubMed

Hardstaff, Joanne L; Bulling, Mark T; Marion, Glenn; Hutchings, Michael R; White, Piran C L

2012-06-27

The persistence of bovine TB (bTB) in various countries throughout the world is enhanced by the existence of wildlife hosts for the infection. In Britain and Ireland, the principal wildlife host for bTB is the badger (Meles meles). The objective of our study was to examine the dynamics of bTB in badgers in relation to both badger-derived infection from within the population and externally-derived, trickle-type, infection, such as could occur from other species or environmental sources, using a spatial stochastic simulation model. The presence of external sources of infection can increase mean prevalence and reduce the threshold group size for disease persistence. Above the threshold equilibrium group size of 6-8 individuals predicted by the model for bTB persistence in badgers based on internal infection alone, external sources of infection have relatively little impact on the persistence or level of disease. However, within a critical range of group sizes just below this threshold level, external infection becomes much more important in determining disease dynamics. Within this critical range, external infection increases the ratio of intra- to inter-group infections due to the greater probability of external infections entering fully-susceptible groups. The effect is to enable bTB persistence and increase bTB prevalence in badger populations which would not be able to maintain bTB based on internal infection alone. External sources of bTB infection can contribute to the persistence of bTB in badger populations. In high-density badger populations, internal badger-derived infections occur at a sufficient rate that the additional effect of external sources in exacerbating disease is minimal. However, in lower-density populations, external sources of infection are much more important in enhancing bTB prevalence and persistence. In such circumstances, it is particularly important that control strategies to reduce bTB in badgers include efforts to minimise such external sources of infection.

Impact of external sources of infection on the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in modelled badger populations

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The persistence of bovine TB (bTB) in various countries throughout the world is enhanced by the existence of wildlife hosts for the infection. In Britain and Ireland, the principal wildlife host for bTB is the badger (Meles meles). The objective of our study was to examine the dynamics of bTB in badgers in relation to both badger-derived infection from within the population and externally-derived, trickle-type, infection, such as could occur from other species or environmental sources, using a spatial stochastic simulation model. Results The presence of external sources of infection can increase mean prevalence and reduce the threshold group size for disease persistence. Above the threshold equilibrium group size of 6–8 individuals predicted by the model for bTB persistence in badgers based on internal infection alone, external sources of infection have relatively little impact on the persistence or level of disease. However, within a critical range of group sizes just below this threshold level, external infection becomes much more important in determining disease dynamics. Within this critical range, external infection increases the ratio of intra- to inter-group infections due to the greater probability of external infections entering fully-susceptible groups. The effect is to enable bTB persistence and increase bTB prevalence in badger populations which would not be able to maintain bTB based on internal infection alone. Conclusions External sources of bTB infection can contribute to the persistence of bTB in badger populations. In high-density badger populations, internal badger-derived infections occur at a sufficient rate that the additional effect of external sources in exacerbating disease is minimal. However, in lower-density populations, external sources of infection are much more important in enhancing bTB prevalence and persistence. In such circumstances, it is particularly important that control strategies to reduce bTB in badgers include efforts to minimise such external sources of infection. PMID:22738118

Simulated population responses of common carp to commercial exploitation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weber, Michael J.; Hennen, Matthew J.; Brown, Michael L.

2011-12-01

Common carp Cyprinus carpio is a widespread invasive species that can become highly abundant and impose deleterious ecosystem effects. Thus, aquatic resource managers are interested in controlling common carp populations. Control of invasive common carp populations is difficult, due in part to the inherent uncertainty of how populations respond to exploitation. To understand how common carp populations respond to exploitation, we evaluated common carp population dynamics (recruitment, growth, and mortality) in three natural lakes in eastern South Dakota. Common carp exhibited similar population dynamics across these three systems that were characterized by consistent recruitment (ages 3 to 15 years present),more » fast growth (K = 0.37 to 0.59), and low mortality (A = 1 to 7%). We then modeled the effects of commercial exploitation on size structure, abundance, and egg production to determine its utility as a management tool to control populations. All three populations responded similarly to exploitation simulations with a 575-mm length restriction, representing commercial gear selectivity. Simulated common carp size structure modestly declined (9 to 37%) in all simulations. Abundance of common carp declined dramatically (28 to 56%) at low levels of exploitation (0 to 20%) but exploitation >40% had little additive effect and populations were only reduced by 49 to 79% despite high exploitation (>90%). Maximum lifetime egg production was reduced from 77 to 89% at a moderate level of exploitation (40%), indicating the potential for recruitment overfishing. Exploitation further reduced common carp size structure, abundance, and egg production when simulations were not size selective. Our results provide insights to how common carp populations may respond to exploitation. Although commercial exploitation may be able to partially control populations, an integrated removal approach that removes all sizes of common carp has a greater chance of controlling population abundance and reducing perturbations induced by this invasive species.« less

Managed Metapopulations: Do Salmon Hatchery ‘Sources’ Lead to In-River ‘Sinks’ in Conservation?

PubMed Central

Johnson, Rachel C.; Weber, Peter K.; Wikert, John D.; Workman, Michelle L.; MacFarlane, R. Bruce; Grove, Marty J.; Schmitt, Axel K.

2012-01-01

Maintaining viable populations of salmon in the wild is a primary goal for many conservation and recovery programs. The frequency and extent of connectivity among natal sources defines the demographic and genetic boundaries of a population. Yet, the role that immigration of hatchery-produced adults may play in altering population dynamics and fitness of natural populations remains largely unquantified. Quantifying, whether natural populations are self-sustaining, functions as sources (population growth rate in the absence of dispersal, λ>1), or as sinks (λ<1) can be obscured by an inability to identify immigrants. In this study we use a new isotopic approach to demonstrate that a natural spawning population of Chinook salmon, (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) considered relatively healthy, represents a sink population when the contribution of hatchery immigrants is taken into consideration. We retrieved sulfur isotopes (34S/32S, referred to as δ34S) in adult Chinook salmon otoliths (ear bones) that were deposited during their early life history as juveniles to determine whether individuals were produced in hatcheries or naturally in rivers. Our results show that only 10.3% (CI = 5.5 to 18.1%) of adults spawning in the river had otolith δ34S values less than 8.5‰, which is characteristic of naturally produced salmon. When considering the total return to the watershed (total fish in river and hatchery), we estimate that 90.7 to 99.3% (CI) of returning adults were produced in a hatchery (best estimate = 95.9%). When population growth rate of the natural population was modeled to account for the contribution of previously unidentified hatchery immigrants, we found that hatchery-produced fish caused the false appearance of positive population growth. These findings highlight the potential dangers in ignoring source-sink dynamics in recovering natural populations, and question the extent to which declines in natural salmon populations are undetected by monitoring programs. PMID:22347362

Managed Metapopulations: Do Salmon Hatchery ‘Sources’ Lead to In-River ‘Sinks’ in Conservation?

DOE PAGES

Johnson, Rachel C.; Weber, Peter K.; Wikert, John D.; ...

2012-02-08

Maintaining viable populations of salmon in the wild is a primary goal for many conservation and recovery programs. The frequency and extent of connectivity among natal sources defines the demographic and genetic boundaries of a population. Yet, the role that immigration of hatchery-produced adults may play in altering population dynamics and fitness of natural populations remains largely unquantified. Quantifying, whether natural populations are self-sustaining, functions as sources (population growth rate in the absence of dispersal, λ>1), or as sinks (λ<1) can be obscured by an inability to identify immigrants. In this study we use a new isotopic approach to demonstratemore » that a natural spawning population of Chinook salmon, (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) considered relatively healthy, represents a sink population when the contribution of hatchery immigrants is taken into consideration. We retrieved sulfur isotopes ( 34S/ 32S, referred to as δ 34S) in adult Chinook salmon otoliths (ear bones) that were deposited during their early life history as juveniles to determine whether individuals were produced in hatcheries or naturally in rivers. Our results show that only 10.3% (CI=5.5 to 18.1%) of adults spawning in the river had otolith δ 34S values less than 8.5‰, which is characteristic of naturally produced salmon. When considering the total return to the watershed (total fish in river and hatchery), we estimate that 90.7 to 99.3% (CI) of returning adults were produced in a hatchery (best estimate=95.9%). When population growth rate of the natural population was modeled to account for the contribution of previously unidentified hatchery immigrants, we found that hatchery-produced fish caused the false appearance of positive population growth. In conclusion, these findings highlight the potential dangers in ignoring source-sink dynamics in recovering natural populations, and question the extent to which declines in natural salmon populations are undetected by monitoring programs.« less

A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

2015-10-22

In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

Dynamics of Nanoparticle-Protein Corona Complex Formation: Analytical Results from Population Balance Equations

PubMed Central

Darabi Sahneh, Faryad; Scoglio, Caterina; Riviere, Jim

2013-01-01

Background Nanoparticle-protein corona complex formation involves absorption of protein molecules onto nanoparticle surfaces in a physiological environment. Understanding the corona formation process is crucial in predicting nanoparticle behavior in biological systems, including applications of nanotoxicology and development of nano drug delivery platforms. Method This paper extends the modeling work in to derive a mathematical model describing the dynamics of nanoparticle corona complex formation from population balance equations. We apply nonlinear dynamics techniques to derive analytical results for the composition of nanoparticle-protein corona complex, and validate our results through numerical simulations. Results The model presented in this paper exhibits two phases of corona complex dynamics. In the first phase, proteins rapidly bind to the free surface of nanoparticles, leading to a metastable composition. During the second phase, continuous association and dissociation of protein molecules with nanoparticles slowly changes the composition of the corona complex. Given sufficient time, composition of the corona complex reaches an equilibrium state of stable composition. We find analytical approximate formulae for metastable and stable compositions of corona complex. Our formulae are very well-structured to clearly identify important parameters determining corona composition. Conclusion The dynamics of biocorona formation constitute vital aspect of interactions between nanoparticles and living organisms. Our results further understanding of these dynamics through quantitation of experimental conditions, modeling results for in vitro systems to better predict behavior for in vivo systems. One potential application would involve a single cell culture medium related to a complex protein medium, such as blood or tissue fluid. PMID:23741371

[Approximation to the dynamics of meningococcal meningitis through dynamic systems and time series].

PubMed

Canals, M

1996-02-01

Meningococcal meningitis is subjected to epidemiological surveillance due to its severity and the occasional presentation of epidemic outbreaks. This work analyses previous disease models, generate new ones and analyses monthly cases using ARIMA time series models. The results show that disease dynamics for closed populations is epidemic and the epidemic size is related to the proportion of carriers and the transmissiveness of the agent. In open populations, disease dynamics depends on the admission rate of susceptible and the relative admission of infected individuals. Our model considers a logistic populational growth and carrier admission proportional to populational size, generating an endemic dynamics. Considering a non-instantaneous system response, a greater realism is obtained establishing that the endemic situation may present a dynamics highly sensitive to initial conditions, depending on the transmissiveness and proportion of susceptible individuals in the population. Time series model showed an adequate predictive capacity in terms no longer than 10 months. The lack of long term predictability was attributed to local changes in the proportion of carriers or on transmissiveness that lead to chaotic dynamics over a seasonal pattern. Predictions for 1995 and 1996 were obtained.

Ranking landscape development scenarios affecting natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) population dynamics in Central Poland.

PubMed

Franz, Kamila W; Romanowski, Jerzy; Johst, Karin; Grimm, Volker

2013-01-01

When data are limited it is difficult for conservation managers to assess alternative management scenarios and make decisions. The natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) is declining at the edges of its distribution range in Europe and little is known about its current distribution and abundance in Poland. Although different landscape management plans for central Poland exist, it is unclear to what extent they impact this species. Based on these plans, we investigated how four alternative landscape development scenarios would affect the total carrying capacity and population dynamics of the natterjack toad. To facilitate decision-making, we first ranked the scenarios according to their total carrying capacity. We used the software RAMAS GIS to determine the size and location of habitat patches in the landscape. The estimated carrying capacities were very similar for each scenario, and clear ranking was not possible. Only the reforestation scenario showed a marked loss in carrying capacity. We therefore simulated metapopulation dynamics with RAMAS taking into account dynamical processes such as reproduction and dispersal and ranked the scenarios according to the resulting species abundance. In this case, we could clearly rank the development scenarios. We identified road mortality of adults as a key process governing the dynamics and separating the different scenarios. The renaturalisation scenario clearly ranked highest due to its decreased road mortality. Taken together our results suggest that road infrastructure development might be much more important for natterjack toad conservation than changes in the amount of habitat in the semi-natural river valley. We gained these insights by considering both the resulting metapopulation structure and dynamics in the form of a PVA. We conclude that the consideration of dynamic processes in amphibian conservation management may be indispensable for ranking management scenarios.

Linking degradation status with ecosystem vulnerability to environmental change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Baho, Didier L.; Allen, Craig R.; Johnson, Richard K.

2015-01-01

Environmental change can cause regime shifts in ecosystems, potentially threatening ecosystem services. It is unclear if the degradation status of ecosystems correlates with their vulnerability to environmental change, and thus the risk of future regime shifts. We assessed resilience in acidified (degraded) and circumneutral (undegraded) lakes with long-term data (1988–2012), using time series modeling. We identified temporal frequencies in invertebrate assemblages, which identifies groups of species whose population dynamics vary at particular temporal scales. We also assessed species with stochastic dynamics, those whose population dynamics vary irregularly and unpredictably over time. We determined the distribution of functional feeding groups of invertebrates within and across the temporal scales identified, and in those species with stochastic dynamics, and assessed attributes hypothesized to contribute to resilience. Three patterns of temporal dynamics, consistent across study lakes, were identified in the invertebrates. The first pattern was one of monotonic change associated with changing abiotic lake conditions. The second and third patterns appeared unrelated to the environmental changes we monitored. Acidified and the circumneutral lakes shared similar levels and patterns of functional richness, evenness, diversity, and redundancy for species within and across the observed temporal scales and for stochastic species groups. These similar resilience characteristics suggest that both lake types did not differ in vulnerability to the environmental changes observed here. Although both lake types appeared equally vulnerable in this study, our approach demonstrates how assessing systemic vulnerability by quantifying ecological resilience can help address uncertainty in predicting ecosystem responses to environmental change across ecosystems.

Dynamic health policies for controlling the spread of emerging infections: influenza as an example.

PubMed

Yaesoubi, Reza; Cohen, Ted

2011-01-01

The recent appearance and spread of novel infectious pathogens provide motivation for using models as tools to guide public health decision-making. Here we describe a modeling approach for developing dynamic health policies that allow for adaptive decision-making as new data become available during an epidemic. In contrast to static health policies which have generally been selected by comparing the performance of a limited number of pre-determined sequences of interventions within simulation or mathematical models, dynamic health policies produce "real-time" recommendations for the choice of the best current intervention based on the observable state of the epidemic. Using cumulative real-time data for disease spread coupled with current information about resource availability, these policies provide recommendations for interventions that optimally utilize available resources to preserve the overall health of the population. We illustrate the design and implementation of a dynamic health policy for the control of a novel strain of influenza, where we assume that two types of intervention may be available during the epidemic: (1) vaccines and antiviral drugs, and (2) transmission reducing measures, such as social distancing or mask use, that may be turned "on" or "off" repeatedly during the course of epidemic. In this example, the optimal dynamic health policy maximizes the overall population's health during the epidemic by specifying at any point of time, based on observable conditions, (1) the number of individuals to vaccinate if vaccines are available, and (2) whether the transmission-reducing intervention should be either employed or removed.

Population resizing on fitness improvement genetic algorithm to optimize promotion visit route based on android and google maps API

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Listyorini, Tri; Muzid, Syafiul

2017-06-01

The promotion team of Muria Kudus University (UMK) has done annual promotion visit to several senior high schools in Indonesia. The visits were done to numbers of schools in Kudus, Jepara, Demak, Rembang and Purwodadi. To simplify the visit, each visit round is limited to 15 (fifteen) schools. However, the team frequently faces some obstacles during the visit, particularly in determining the route that they should take toward the targeted school. It is due to the long distance or the difficult route to reach the targeted school that leads to elongated travel duration and inefficient fuel cost. To solve these problems, the development of a certain application using heuristic genetic algorithm method based on the dynamic of population size or Population Resizing on Fitness lmprovement Genetic Algorithm (PRoFIGA), was done. This android-based application was developed to make the visit easier and to determine a shorter route for the team, hence, the visiting period will be effective and efficient. The result of this research was an android-based application to determine the shortest route by combining heuristic method and Google Maps Application Programming lnterface (API) that display the route options for the team.

Niche differentiation of ammonia oxidizers and nitrite oxidizers in rice paddy soil.

PubMed

Ke, Xiubin; Angel, Roey; Lu, Yahai; Conrad, Ralf

2013-08-01

The dynamics of populations and activities of ammonia-oxidizing and nitrite-oxidizing microorganisms were investigated in rice microcosms treated with two levels of nitrogen. Different soil compartments (surface, bulk, rhizospheric soil) and roots (young and old roots) were collected at three time points (the panicle initiation, heading and maturity periods) of the season. The population dynamics of bacterial (AOB) and archaeal (AOA) ammonia oxidizers was assayed by determining the abundance (using qPCR) and composition (using T-RFLP and cloning/sequencing) of their amoA genes (coding for a subunit of ammonia monooxygenase), that of nitrite oxidizers (NOB) by quantifying the nxrA gene (coding for a subunit of nitrite oxidase of Nitrobacter spp.) and the 16S rRNA gene of Nitrospira spp. The activity of the nitrifiers was determined by measuring the rates of potential ammonia oxidation and nitrite oxidation and by quantifying the copy numbers of amoA and nxrA transcripts. Potential nitrite oxidation activity was much higher than potential ammonia oxidation activity and was not directly affected by nitrogen amendment demonstrating the importance of ammonia oxidizers as pace makers for nitrite oxidizer populations. Marked differences in the distribution of bacterial and archaeal ammonia oxidizers, and of Nitrobacter-like and Nitrospira-like nitrite oxidizers were found in the different compartments of planted paddy soil indicating niche differentiation. In bulk soil, ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (Nitrosospira and Nitrosomonas) were at low abundance and displayed no activity, but in surface soil their activity and abundance was high. Nitrite oxidation in surface soil was dominated by Nitrospira spp. By contrast, ammonia-oxidizing Thaumarchaeota and Nitrobacter spp. seemed to dominate nitrification in rhizospheric soil and on rice roots. In contrast to soil compartment, the level of N fertilization and the time point of sampling had only little effect on the abundance, composition and activity of the nitrifying communities. The results of our study show that in rice fields population dynamics and activity of nitrifiers is mainly differentiated by the soil compartments rather than by nitrogen amendment or season. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and Society for Applied Microbiology.

Dynamical lifetimes of asteroids in retrograde orbits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kankiewicz, Paweł; Włodarczyk, Ireneusz

2017-07-01

The population of known minor bodies in retrograde orbits (I > 90°) that are classified as asteroids is still growing. The aim of our study was to estimate the dynamical lifetimes of these bodies using the latest observational data, including astrometry and physical properties. We selected 25 asteroids with the best-determined orbital elements. We studied their dynamical evolution in the past and future for ±100 Myr (±1 Gyr for three particular cases). We first used orbit determination and cloning to produce swarms of test particles. These swarms were then input into long-term numerical integrations, and the orbital elements were averaged. Next, we collected the available thermal properties of our objects and we used them in an enhanced dynamical model with Yarkovsky forces. We also used a gravitational model for comparison. Finally, we estimated the median lifetimes of 25 asteroids. We found three objects whose retrograde orbits were stable with a dynamical lifetime τ ˜ 10-100 Myr. A large portion of the objects studied displayed smaller values of τ (τ ˜ 1 Myr). In addition, we studied the possible influence of the Yarkovsky effect on our results. We found that the Yarkovsky effect can have a significant influence on the lifetimes of asteroids in retrograde orbits. Because of the presence of this effect, it is possible that the median lifetimes of these objects are extended. Additionally, the changes in orbital elements, caused by Yarkovsky forces, appear to depend on the integration direction. To explain this more precisely, the same model based on new physical parameters, determined from future observations, will be required.

Hippocampal Dendritic Spines Are Segregated Depending on Their Actin Polymerization

PubMed Central

Domínguez-Iturza, Nuria; Calvo, María; Benoist, Marion; Esteban, José Antonio; Morales, Miguel

2016-01-01

Dendritic spines are mushroom-shaped protrusions of the postsynaptic membrane. Spines receive the majority of glutamatergic synaptic inputs. Their morphology, dynamics, and density have been related to synaptic plasticity and learning. The main determinant of spine shape is filamentous actin. Using FRAP, we have reexamined the actin dynamics of individual spines from pyramidal hippocampal neurons, both in cultures and in hippocampal organotypic slices. Our results indicate that, in cultures, the actin mobile fraction is independently regulated at the individual spine level, and mobile fraction values do not correlate with either age or distance from the soma. The most significant factor regulating actin mobile fraction was the presence of astrocytes in the culture substrate. Spines from neurons growing in the virtual absence of astrocytes have a more stable actin cytoskeleton, while spines from neurons growing in close contact with astrocytes show a more dynamic cytoskeleton. According to their recovery time, spines were distributed into two populations with slower and faster recovery times, while spines from slice cultures were grouped into one population. Finally, employing fast lineal acquisition protocols, we confirmed the existence of loci with high polymerization rates within the spine. PMID:26881098

Response of Periphyton to Seasonal Changes in Nutrient Concentrations in Central Illinois Agricultural Streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirkham, K. G.; Perry, W. L.

2005-05-01

Headwater streams in central Illinois have been dredged and channelized to drain surrounding agricultural fields and has led to extensive erosion and eutrophication. Restoration of these systems through farmer implementation of Best Management Practices (BMPs) may be one solution. Examination of algal population dynamics may be useful in assessment of BMP effectiveness. We have monitored two small headwater streams, Bray Creek and Frog Alley, for a suite of physicochemical parameters focusing on dissolved oxygen, nitrogen, and phosphorus for three years. Nutrient concentrations suggested potential nutrient limitation by nitrates during late summer and phosphorus limitation in early summer. To determine seasonal algal dynamics with seasonally varying nutrient limitation in agricultural headwater streams, we used nutrient diffusing substrata (NDS). NDS with agar (controls) or amended with either nitrogen, phosphorus, or both were deployed for 21-24 days in both streams each month for a year. Slight nutrient limitation was observed in Bray Creek during August and November while phosphorus was limiting in September (P<0.05). We suggest agricultural streams are more dynamic than previously thought and algal populations may be seasonally nutrient limited and with consequent effects on dissolved oxygen concentrations.

The spreading dynamics of sexually transmitted diseases with birth and death on heterogeneous networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yi; Cao, Jinde; Alsaedi, Ahmed; Hayat, Tasawar

2017-02-01

In this paper, we formulate a deterministic model by including the vacant sites, which represent inactive individuals or potential contacts, to investigate the spreading dynamics of sexually transmitted diseases in heterogeneous networks. We first analytically derive the basic reproduction number R 0, which completely determines global dynamics of the system in the long run. Specifically, if R 0  <  1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, i.e. disease disappears from the network irrespective of initial infected numbers and distributions, whereas if R 0  >  1, the system is uniformly persistent around a unique endemic equilibrium, i.e. disease persists in the network. Furthermore, by using a suitable Lyapunov function the global stability of endemic equilibrium for low/high-risk infected individuals only is proved. Finally, the effects of three immunization schemes are studied and compared, and extensive numerical simulations are performed to investigate the effect of network topology and population turnover on disease spread. Our results suggest that population turnover could have great impact on the sexually transmitted disease system in heterogeneous networks, including the basic reproduction number and infection prevalence.

Exploiting the Adaptation Dynamics to Predict the Distribution of Beneficial Fitness Effects

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Adaptation of asexual populations is driven by beneficial mutations and therefore the dynamics of this process, besides other factors, depends on the distribution of beneficial fitness effects. It is known that on uncorrelated fitness landscapes, this distribution can only be of three types: truncated, exponential and power law. We performed extensive stochastic simulations to study the adaptation dynamics on rugged fitness landscapes, and identified two quantities that can be used to distinguish the underlying distribution of beneficial fitness effects. The first quantity studied here is the fitness difference between successive mutations that spread in the population, which is found to decrease in the case of truncated distributions, remains nearly a constant for exponentially decaying distributions and increases when the fitness distribution decays as a power law. The second quantity of interest, namely, the rate of change of fitness with time also shows quantitatively different behaviour for different beneficial fitness distributions. The patterns displayed by the two aforementioned quantities are found to hold good for both low and high mutation rates. We discuss how these patterns can be exploited to determine the distribution of beneficial fitness effects in microbial experiments. PMID:26990188

From cognitive networks to seizures: Stimulus evoked dynamics in a coupled cortical network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jaejin; Ermentrout, Bard; Bodner, Mark

2013-12-01

Epilepsy is one of the most common neuropathologies worldwide. Seizures arising in epilepsy or in seizure disorders are characterized generally by uncontrolled spread of excitation and electrical activity to a limited region or even over the entire cortex. While it is generally accepted that abnormal excessive firing and synchronization of neuron populations lead to seizures, little is known about the precise mechanisms underlying human epileptic seizures, the mechanisms of transitions from normal to paroxysmal activity, or about how seizures spread. Further complication arises in that seizures do not occur with a single type of dynamics but as many different phenotypes and genotypes with a range of patterns, synchronous oscillations, and time courses. The concept of preventing, terminating, or modulating seizures and/or paroxysmal activity through stimulation of brain has also received considerable attention. The ability of such stimulation to prevent or modulate such pathological activity may depend on identifiable parameters. In this work, firing rate networks with inhibitory and excitatory populations were modeled. Network parameters were chosen to model normal working memory behaviors. Two different models of cognitive activity were developed. The first model consists of a single network corresponding to a local area of the brain. The second incorporates two networks connected through sparser recurrent excitatory connectivity with transmission delays ranging from approximately 3 ms within local populations to 15 ms between populations residing in different cortical areas. The effect of excitatory stimulation to activate working memory behavior through selective persistent activation of populations is examined in the models, and the conditions and transition mechanisms through which that selective activation breaks down producing spreading paroxysmal activity and seizure states are characterized. Specifically, we determine critical parameters and architectural changes that produce the different seizure dynamics in the networks. This provides possible mechanisms for seizure generation. Because seizures arise as attractors in a multi-state system, the system may possibly be returned to its baseline state through some particular stimulation. The ability of stimulation to terminate seizure dynamics in the local and distributed models is studied. We systematically examine when this may occur and the form of the stimulation necessary for the range of seizure dynamics. In both the local and distributed network models, termination is possible for all seizure types observed by stimulation possessing some particular configuration of spatial and temporal characteristics.

Rotational and translational dynamics and their relation to hydrogen bond lifetimes in an ionic liquid by means of NMR relaxation time experiments and molecular dynamics simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strate, Anne; Neumann, Jan; Overbeck, Viviane; Bonsa, Anne-Marie; Michalik, Dirk; Paschek, Dietmar; Ludwig, Ralf

2018-05-01

We report a concerted theoretical and experimental effort to determine the reorientational dynamics as well as hydrogen bond lifetimes for the doubly ionic hydrogen bond +OH⋯O- in the ionic liquid (2-hydroxyethyl)trimethylammonium bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide [Ch][NTf2] by using a combination of NMR relaxation time experiments, density functional theory (DFT) calculations, and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Due to fast proton exchange, the determination of rotational correlation times is challenging. For molecular liquids, 17O-enhanced proton relaxation time experiments have been used to determine the rotational correlation times for the OH vectors in water or alcohols. As an alternative to those expensive isotopic substitution experiments, we employed a recently introduced approach which is providing access to the rotational dynamics from a single NMR deuteron quadrupolar relaxation time experiment. Here, the deuteron quadrupole coupling constants (DQCCs) are obtained from a relation between the DQCC and the δ1H proton chemical shifts determined from a set of DFT calculated clusters in combination with experimentally determined proton chemical shifts. The NMR-obtained rotational correlation times were compared to those obtained from MD simulations and then related to viscosities for testing the applicability of popular hydrodynamic models. In addition, hydrogen bond lifetimes were derived, using hydrogen bond population correlation functions computed from MD simulations. Here, two different time domains were observed: The short-time contributions to the hydrogen lifetimes and the reorientational correlation times have roughly the same size and are located in the picosecond range, whereas the long-time contributions decay with relaxation times in the nanosecond regime and are related to rather slow diffusion processes. The computed average hydrogen bond lifetime is dominated by the long-time process, highlighting the importance and longevity of hydrogen-bonded ion pairs in these ionic liquids.

Population dynamics on heterogeneous bacterial substrates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mobius, Wolfram; Murray, Andrew W.; Nelson, David R.

2012-02-01

How species invade new territories and how these range expansions influence the population's genotypes are important questions in the field of population genetics. The majority of work addressing these questions focuses on homogeneous environments. Much less is known about the population dynamics and population genetics when the environmental conditions are heterogeneous in space. To better understand range expansions in two-dimensional heterogeneous environments, we employ a system of bacteria and bacteriophage, the viruses of bacteria. Thereby, the bacteria constitute the environment in which a population of bacteriophages expands. The spread of phage constitutes itself in lysis of bacteria and thus formation of clear regions on bacterial lawns, called plaques. We study the population dynamics and genetics of the expanding page for various patterns of environments.

Plankton Production Biology

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

kind. It will permit the study of stage-specific population dynamics (growth rate, production, mortality) of copepod larvae in mixed populations...will be picked up. 4. The translation and distribution of Sazhina’s keys will permit the study of stage-specific population dynamics (growth rate...of the 1987 Russian original, edited by K. Banse) Petipa, T.S. (ed.) (1986) Ecological Systems in Dynamically Active Zones of the Indian Ocean

Determination of Original Infection Source of H7N9 Avian Influenza by Dynamical Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Juan; Jin, Zhen; Sun, Gui-Quan; Sun, Xiang-Dong; Wang, You-Ming; Huang, Baoxu

2014-05-01

H7N9, a newly emerging virus in China, travels among poultry and human. Although H7N9 has not aroused massive outbreaks, recurrence in the second half of 2013 makes it essential to control the spread. It is believed that the most effective control measure is to locate the original infection source and cut off the source of infection from human. However, the original infection source and the internal transmission mechanism of the new virus are not totally clear. In order to determine the original infection source of H7N9, we establish a dynamical model with migratory bird, resident bird, domestic poultry and human population, and view migratory bird, resident bird, domestic poultry as original infection source respectively to fit the true dynamics during the 2013 pandemic. By comparing the date fitting results and corresponding Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) values, we conclude that migrant birds are most likely the original infection source. In addition, we obtain the basic reproduction number in poultry and carry out sensitivity analysis of some parameters.

Using stable isotope tracers to study bone metabolism in children.

PubMed

O'Brien, Kimberly O; Abrams, Steven A

2018-06-05

Skeletal mineralization is initiated in utero and continues throughout childhood and adolescence. During these key periods of the life cycle calcium retention must increase significantly to provide sufficient mineral for bone deposition and skeletal growth. Stable calcium isotopes have served as a fundamental tool to non-invasively characterize the dynamic changes in calcium physiology that occur from infancy through adolescence. These approaches have helped define the dynamics of calcium absorption and utilization in healthy children and in children with chronic diseases. As data in this area have accumulated, new areas of emphasis are beginning to characterize the determinants of variability in mineral retention, the genetic determinants of bone turnover and calcium flux and the impact of the gut microbiome on whole body and niche specific calcium dynamics. Advances in these areas will help define calcium utilization in pediatric populations and provide information that may be useful in maximizing bone acquisition across this critical phase of the life cycle. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Mapping the temperature-dependent conformational landscapes of the dynamic enzymes cyclophilin A and urease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorne, Robert; Keedy, Daniel; Warkentin, Matthew; Fraser, James; Moreau, David; Atakisi, Hakan; Rau, Peter

Proteins populate complex, temperature-dependent ensembles of conformations that enable their function. Yet in X-ray crystallographic studies, roughly 98% of structures have been determined at 100 K, and most refined to only a single conformation. A combination of experimental methods enabled by studies of ice formation and computational methods for mining low-density features in electron density maps have been applied to determine the evolution of the conformational landscapes of the enzymes cyclophilin A and urease between 300 K and 100 K. Minority conformations of most side chains depopulate on cooling from 300 to ~200 K, below which subsequent conformational evolution is quenched. The characteristic temperatures for this depopulation are highly heterogeneous throughout each enzyme. The temperature-dependent ensemble of the active site flap in urease has also been mapped. These all-atom, site-resolved measurements and analyses rule out one interpretation of the protein-solvent glass transition, and give an alternative interpretation of a dynamical transition identified in site-averaged experiments. They demonstrate a powerful approach to structural characterization of the dynamic underpinnings of protein function. Supported by NSF MCB-1330685.

Recent advances in applying mass spectrometry and systems biology to determine brain dynamics.

PubMed

Scifo, Enzo; Calza, Giulio; Fuhrmann, Martin; Soliymani, Rabah; Baumann, Marc; Lalowski, Maciej

2017-06-01

Neurological disorders encompass various pathologies which disrupt normal brain physiology and function. Poor understanding of their underlying molecular mechanisms and their societal burden argues for the necessity of novel prevention strategies, early diagnostic techniques and alternative treatment options to reduce the scale of their expected increase. Areas covered: This review scrutinizes mass spectrometry based approaches used to investigate brain dynamics in various conditions, including neurodegenerative and neuropsychiatric disorders. Different proteomics workflows for isolation/enrichment of specific cell populations or brain regions, sample processing; mass spectrometry technologies, for differential proteome quantitation, analysis of post-translational modifications and imaging approaches in the brain are critically deliberated. Future directions, including analysis of cellular sub-compartments, targeted MS platforms (selected/parallel reaction monitoring) and use of mass cytometry are also discussed. Expert commentary: Here, we summarize and evaluate current mass spectrometry based approaches for determining brain dynamics in health and diseases states, with a focus on neurological disorders. Furthermore, we provide insight on current trends and new MS technologies with potential to improve this analysis.

Combined effects of climate, predation, and density dependence on Greater and Lesser Scaup population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Beth E.; Hooten, Mevin B.; DeVink, Jean-Michel; Koons, David N.

2015-01-01

An understanding of species relationships is critical in the management and conservation of populations facing climate change, yet few studies address how climate alters species interactions and other population drivers. We use a long-term, broad-scale data set of relative abundance to examine the influence of climate, predators, and density dependence on the population dynamics of declining scaup (Aythya) species within the core of their breeding range. The state-space modeling approach we use applies to a wide range of wildlife species, especially populations monitored over broad spatiotemporal extents. Using this approach, we found that immediate snow cover extent in the preceding winter and spring had the strongest effects, with increases in mean snow cover extent having a positive effect on the local surveyed abundance of scaup. The direct effects of mesopredator abundance on scaup population dynamics were weaker, but the results still indicated a potential interactive process between climate and food web dynamics (mesopredators, alternative prey, and scaup). By considering climate variables and other potential effects on population dynamics, and using a rigorous estimation framework, we provide insight into complex ecological processes for guiding conservation and policy actions aimed at mitigating and reversing the decline of scaup.

Stability and bifurcation analysis of three-species predator-prey model with non-monotonic delayed predator response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balilo, Aldrin T.; Collera, Juancho A.

2018-03-01

In this paper, we consider delayed three-species predator-prey model with non-monotonic functional response where two predator populations feed on a single prey population. Response function in both predator populations includes a time delay which represents the gestation period of the predator populations. We call a positive equlibrium solution of the form E*S=(x*,y*,y*) as a symmetric equilibrium. The goal of this paper is to determine the effect of the difference in gestation periods of predator populations to the local dynamics of symmetric equilibria. Our results include conditions on the existence of equilibrium solutions, and stability and bifurcations of symmetric equilibria as the gestation periods of predator populations are varied. A numerical bifurcation analysis tool is also used to illustrate our results. Stability switch occurs at a Hopf bifurcation. Moreover, a branch of stable periodic solutions, obtained using numerical continuation, emerges from the Hopf bifurcation. This shows that the predator population with longer gestation period oscillates higher than the predator population with shorter gestation period.

Inferring the Mode of Selection from the Transient Response to Demographic Perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balick, Daniel; Do, Ron; Reich, David; Sunyaev, Shamil

2014-03-01

Despite substantial recent progress in theoretical population genetics, most models work under the assumption of a constant population size. Deviations from fixed population sizes are ubiquitous in natural populations, many of which experience population bottlenecks and re-expansions. The non-equilibrium dynamics introduced by a large perturbation in population size are generally viewed as a confounding factor. In the present work, we take advantage of the transient response to a population bottleneck to infer features of the mode of selection and the distribution of selective effects. We develop an analytic framework and a corresponding statistical test that qualitatively differentiates between alleles under additive and those under recessive or more general epistatic selection. This statistic can be used to bound the joint distribution of selective effects and dominance effects in any diploid sexual organism. We apply this technique to human population genetic data, and severely restrict the space of allowed selective coefficients in humans. Additionally, one can test a set of functionally or medically relevant alleles for the primary mode of selection, or determine the local regional variation in dominance coefficients along the genome.

Persistence and diversity of directional landscape connectivity improves biomass pulsing in expanding and contracting wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yurek, Simeon; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Trexler, Joel C.; Klassen, Stephen; Larsen, Laurel G.

2016-01-01

In flood-pulsed ecosystems, hydrology and landscape structure mediate transfers of energy up the food chain by expanding and contracting in area, enabling spatial expansion and growth of fish populations during rising water levels, and subsequent concentration during the drying phase. Connectivity of flooded areas is dynamic as waters rise and fall, and is largely determined by landscape geomorphology and anisotropy. We developed a methodology for simulating fish dispersal and concentration on spatially-explicit, dynamic floodplain wetlands with pulsed food web dynamics, to evaluate how changes in connectivity through time contribute to the concentration of fish biomass that is essential for higher trophic levels. The model also tracks a connectivity index (DCI) over different compass directions to see if fish biomass dynamics can be related in a simple way to topographic pattern. We demonstrate the model for a seasonally flood-pulsed, oligotrophic system, the Everglades, where flow regimes have been greatly altered. Three dispersing populations of functional fish groups were simulated with empirically-based dispersal rules on two landscapes, and two twelve-year time series of managed water levels for those areas were applied. The topographies of the simulations represented intact and degraded ridge-and-slough landscapes (RSL). Simulation results showed large pulses of biomass concentration forming during the onset of the drying phase, when water levels were falling and fish began to converge into the sloughs. As water levels fell below the ridges, DCI declined over different directions, closing down dispersal lanes, and fish density spiked. Persistence of intermediate levels of connectivity on the intact RSL enabled persistent concentration events throughout the drying phase. The intact landscape also buffered effects of wet season population growth. Water level reversals on both landscapes negatively affected fish densities by depleting fish populations without allowing enough time for them to regenerate. Testable, spatiotemporal predictions of the timing, location, duration, and magnitude of fish concentration pulses were produced by the model, and can be applied to restoration planning.

A combined crossed-beam and theoretical study of the reaction dynamics of O(3P) + C2H3 → C2H2 + OH: analysis of the nascent OH products with the preferential population of the Π(A') component.

PubMed

Park, Min-Jin; Jang, Su-Chan; Choi, Jong-Ho

2012-11-28

The gas-phase reaction dynamics of ground-state atomic oxygen [O((3)P) from the photo-dissociation of NO(2)] with vinyl radicals [C(2)H(3) from the supersonic flash pyrolysis of vinyl iodide, C(2)H(3)I] has been investigated using a combination of high-resolution laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy in a crossed-beam configuration and ab initio calculations. Unlike the previous gas-phase bulk kinetic experiments by Baulch et al. [J. Phys. Chem. Ref. Data 34, 757 (2005)], a new exothermic channel of O((3)P) + C(2)H(3) → C(2)H(2) + OH (X (2)Π: υ" = 0) has been identified for the first time, and the population analysis shows bimodal nascent rotational distributions of OH products with low- and high-N" components with a ratio of 2.4:1. No spin-orbit propensities were observed, and the averaged ratios of Π(A('))∕Π(A") were determined to be 1.66 ± 0.27. On the basis of computations at the CBS-QB3 theory level and comparison with prior theory, the microscopic mechanisms responsible for the nascent populations can be understood in terms of two competing dynamical pathways: a direct abstraction process in the low-N" regime as the major pathway and an addition-complex forming process in the high-N" regime as the minor pathway. Particularly, during the bond cleavage process of the weakly bound van der Waals complex C(2)H(2)-OH, the characteristic pathway from the low dihedral-angle geometry was consistent with the observed preferential population of the Π(A') component in the nascent OH products. A molecular-level discussion of the reactivity, mechanism, and dynamical features of the title reaction are presented together with a comparison to gas-phase oxidation reactions of a series of prototypical hydrocarbon radicals.

The importance of temperature fluctuations in understanding mosquito population dynamics and malaria risk.

PubMed

Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M; Nelson, William A; Paaijmans, Krijn P; Read, Andrew F; Thomas, Matthew B; Bjørnstad, Ottar N

2017-03-01

Temperature is a key environmental driver of Anopheles mosquito population dynamics; understanding its central role is important for these malaria vectors. Mosquito population responses to temperature fluctuations, though important across the life history, are poorly understood at a population level. We used stage-structured, temperature-dependent delay-differential equations to conduct a detailed exploration of the impacts of diurnal and annual temperature fluctuations on mosquito population dynamics. The model allows exploration of temperature-driven temporal changes in adult age structure, giving insights into the population's capacity to vector malaria parasites. Because of temperature-dependent shifts in age structure, the abundance of potentially infectious mosquitoes varies temporally, and does not necessarily mirror the dynamics of the total adult population. In addition to conducting the first comprehensive theoretical exploration of fluctuating temperatures on mosquito population dynamics, we analysed observed temperatures at four locations in Africa covering a range of environmental conditions. We found both temperature and precipitation are needed to explain the observed malaria season in these locations, enhancing our understanding of the drivers of malaria seasonality and how temporal disease risk may shift in response to temperature changes. This approach, tracking both mosquito abundance and age structure, may be a powerful tool for understanding current and future malaria risk.

Public goods games in populations with fluctuating size.

PubMed

McAvoy, Alex; Fraiman, Nicolas; Hauert, Christoph; Wakeley, John; Nowak, Martin A

2018-05-01

Many mathematical frameworks of evolutionary game dynamics assume that the total population size is constant and that selection affects only the relative frequency of strategies. Here, we consider evolutionary game dynamics in an extended Wright-Fisher process with variable population size. In such a scenario, it is possible that the entire population becomes extinct. Survival of the population may depend on which strategy prevails in the game dynamics. Studying cooperative dilemmas, it is a natural feature of such a model that cooperators enable survival, while defectors drive extinction. Although defectors are favored for any mixed population, random drift could lead to their elimination and the resulting pure-cooperator population could survive. On the other hand, if the defectors remain, then the population will quickly go extinct because the frequency of cooperators steadily declines and defectors alone cannot survive. In a mutation-selection model, we find that (i) a steady supply of cooperators can enable long-term population survival, provided selection is sufficiently strong, and (ii) selection can increase the abundance of cooperators but reduce their relative frequency. Thus, evolutionary game dynamics in populations with variable size generate a multifaceted notion of what constitutes a trait's long-term success. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Seasonal Diversity Patterns of a Coastal Synechococcus Population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunter-Cevera, K. R.; Sosik, H. M.; Neubert, M.; Hammar, K.; Post, A.

2016-02-01

Understanding how environmental and ecological factors determine phytoplankton species abundances requires knowledge of the diversity present within a population. For the important primary producer Synechococcus, clades demonstrate differences in temperature tolerance, light acclimation, grazer palatability, and more. Marine Synechococcus populations are often composed of more than one clade, and overall population dynamics will be governed by the types of cells present and by their individual physiological capabilities. We investigate the diversity of the Synechococcus assemblage at the Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory with high-throughput sequencing of the V6 hypervariable region of the 16S rRNA gene. Small nucleotide differences within this region allow for resolution of distinct phylotypes that can have a direct correspondence to the well-defined Synechococcus clades. From a three-year time series, we find that the Synechococcus population is dominated by 5 distinct phylotypes, and that each type exhibits a repeatable, seasonal pattern in relative abundance. We use compositional data analysis techniques to investigate the relationships between these patterns and environmental factors. We further interpret these patterns in the context of Synechococcus population dynamics assessed by automated, submersible flow cytometry (FlowCytobot). Observed diel changes in cell size distributions, coupled with a validated matrix population model, provide estimates of in situ population division rates. We find strong evidence that the main seasonal diversity patterns are governed by temperature, but that biological loss agents likely shape the diversity structure for certain times of year. For some phylotypes, relative abundance patterns are also related to light and nutrients. The composition of Synechococcus over the annual cycle appears to directly affect seasonal features of cell abundance patterns, such as the spring bloom.

Genetic Variability and Geographic Diversity of the Common Bed Bug (Hemiptera: Cimicidae) Populations from the Midwest Using Microsatellite Markers.

PubMed

Narain, Ralph B; Lalithambika, Sreedevi; Kamble, Shripat T

2015-07-01

With the recent global resurgence of the bed bugs (Cimex lectularius L.), there is a need to better understand its biology, ecology, and ability to establish populations. Bed bugs are domestic pests that feed mainly on mammalian blood. Although bed bugs have not been implicated as vectors of pathogens, their biting activity inflicts severe insomnia and allergic reactions. Moreover, they have recently developed resistance to various insecticides, which requires further molecular research to determine genetic variation and appropriate interventions. Population dynamics, including genetic differentiation and genetic distance of 10 populations from the Midwest were analyzed in this study. The bed bug samples collected by pest control companies were genotyped using eight species-specific microsatellite markers. Results showed all eight markers were polymorphic, with 8-16 alleles per locus, suggesting high genetic diversity. The FST values were >0.25, signifying pronounced genetic differentiation. The G-test results also indicated high genetic differentiation among populations. The frequency of the most common allele across all eight loci was 0.42. The coefficient of relatedness between each of the populations was >0.5, indicative of sibling or parent-offspring relationships, while the FIS and its confidence interval values were statistically insignificant within the populations tested. The populations departed from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, possibly because of high heterozygosity. The genetic distance analysis using a neighbor-joining tree showed that the populations from Kansas City, MO, were genetically separate from most of those from Nebraska, indicating a geographic pattern of genetic structure. Our study demonstrated the effectiveness of using microsatellite markers to study bed bugs population structure, thereby improving our understanding of bed bug population dynamics in the Midwest. Overall, this study showed a high genetic diversity and identified several new alleles in the bed bug populations in the Midwest. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Precipitation, density, and population dynamics of desert bighorn sheep on San Andres National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bender, L.C.; Weisenberger, M.E.

2005-01-01

Understanding the determinants of population size and performance for desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis mexicana) is critical to develop effective recovery and management strategies. In arid environments, plant communities and consequently herbivore populations are strongly dependent upon precipitation, which is highly variable seasonally and annually. We conducted a retrospective exploratory analysis of desert bighorn sheep population dynamics on San Andres National Wildlife Refuge (SANWR), New Mexico, 1941-1976, by modeling sheep population size as a function of previous population sizes and precipitation. Population size and trend of desert bighorn were best and well described (R 2=0.89) by a model that included only total annual precipitation as a covariate. Models incorporating density-dependence, delayed density-dependence, and combinations of density and precipitation were less informative than the model containing precipitation alone (??AlCc=8.5-22.5). Lamb:female ratios were positively related to precipitation (current year: F1,34=7.09, P=0.012; previous year: F1,33=3.37, P=0.075) but were unrelated to population size (current year. F1,34=0.04, P=0.843; previous year: F1,33 =0.14, P=0.715). Instantaneous population rate of increase (r) was related to population size (F1,33=5.55; P=0.025). Precipitation limited populations of desert bighorn sheep on SANWR primarily in a density-independent manner by affecting production or survival of lambs, likely through influences on forage quantity and quality. Habitat evaluations and recovery plans for desert bighorn sheep need to consider fundamental influences on desert bighorn populations such as precipitation and food, rather than focus solely on proximate issues such as security cover, predation, and disease. Moreover, the concept of carrying capacity for desert bighorn sheep may need re-evaluation in respect to highly variable (CV =35.6%) localized precipitation patterns. On SANWR carrying capacity for desert bighorn sheep was zero when total annual precipitation was <28.2 cm.

Soil-related variations in the population dynamics of six dipterocarp tree species with strong habitat preferences.

PubMed

Yamada, Toshihiro; Yamada, Yuko; Okuda, Toshinori; Fletcher, Christine

2013-07-01

Differences in the density of conspecific tree individuals in response to environmental gradients are well documented for many tree species, but how such density differences are generated and maintained is poorly understood. We examined the segregation of six dipterocarp species among three soil types in the Pasoh tropical forest, Malaysia. We examined how individual performance and population dynamics changed across the soil types using 10-year demographic data to compare tree performance across soil types, and constructed population matrix models to analyze the population dynamics. Species showed only minor changes in mortality and juvenile growth across soil types, although recruitment differed greatly. Clear, interspecific demographic trade-offs between growth and mortality were found in all soil types. The relative trade-offs by a species did not differ substantially among the soil types. Population sizes were projected to remain stable in all soil types for all species with one exception. Our life-table response experiment demonstrated that the population dynamics of a species differed only subtly among soil types. Therefore, species with strong density differences across soil types do not necessarily differ greatly in their population dynamics across the soil types. In contrast, interspecific differences in population dynamics were large. The trade-off between mortality and growth led to a negative correlation between the contributions of mortality and growth to variations in the population growth rate (λ) and thus reduced their net contributions. Recruitment had little impact on the variation in λ. The combination of these factors resulted in little variation in λ among species.

Capital, population and urban patterns.

PubMed

Zhang, W

1994-04-01

The author develops an approach to urban dynamics with endogenous capital and population growth, synthesizing the Alonso location model, the two-sector neoclassical growth model, and endogenous population theory. A dynamic model for an isolated island economy with endogenous capital, population, and residential structure is developed on the basis of Alonso's residential model and the two-sector neoclassical growth model. The model describes the interdependence between residential structure, economic growth, population growth, and economic structure over time and space. It has a unique long-run equilibrium, which may be either stable or unstable, depending upon the population dynamics. Applying the Hopf theorem, the author also shows that when the system is unstable, the economic geography exhibits permanent endogenous oscillations.

Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, David A.; Clark, W.R.; Arnold, S.J.; Bronikowski, A.M.

2011-01-01

Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (??s) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on ?? s. The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on ??s was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on ??s was 4- 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of divergent life-history traits in the two ecotypes, which, in turn, affect population dynamics. M-slow populations have evolved life-history traits that buffer fitness against direct effects of variation in reproduction and that spread lifetime reproduction across a greater number of reproductive bouts. These results highlight the importance of long-term demographic and environmental monitoring and of incorporating temporal dynamics into empirical studies of life-history evolution. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories.

PubMed

Miller, David A; Clark, William R; Arnold, Stevan J; Bronikowski, Anne M

2011-08-01

Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (lambda(s)) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on lambda(s). The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on lambda(s) was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on lambda(s) was 4 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of divergent life-history traits in the two ecotypes, which, in turn, affect population dynamics. M-slow populations have evolved life-history traits that buffer fitness against direct effects of variation in reproduction and that spread lifetime reproduction across a greater number of reproductive bouts. These results highlight the importance of long-term demographic and environmental monitoring and of incorporating temporal dynamics into empirical studies of life-history evolution.

Evolutionary dynamics of fearfulness and boldness.

PubMed

Ji, Ting; Zhang, Boyu; Sun, Yuehua; Tao, Yi

2009-02-21

A negative relationship between reproductive effort and survival is consistent with life-history. Evolutionary dynamics and evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) for the trade-off between survival and reproduction are investigated using a simple model with two phenotypes, fearfulness and boldness. The dynamical stability of the pure strategy model and analysis of ESS conditions reveal that: (i) the simple coexistence of fearfulness and boldness is impossible; (ii) a small population size is favorable to fearfulness, but a large population size is favorable to boldness, i.e., neither fearfulness, nor boldness is always favored by natural selection; and (iii) the dynamics of population density is crucial for a proper understanding of the strategy dynamics.

Recent range expansion of a terrestrial orchid corresponds with climate-driven variation in its population dynamics.

PubMed

van der Meer, Sascha; Jacquemyn, Hans; Carey, Peter D; Jongejans, Eelke

2016-06-01

The population dynamics and distribution limits of plant species are predicted to change as the climate changes. However, it remains unclear to what extent climate variables affect population dynamics, which vital rates are most sensitive to climate change, and whether the same vital rates drive population dynamics in different populations. In this study, we used long-term demographic data from two populations of the terrestrial orchid Himantoglossum hircinum growing at the northern edge of their geographic range to quantify the influence of climate change on demographic vital rates. Integral projection models were constructed to study how climate conditions between 1991 and 2006 affected population dynamics and to assess how projected future climate change will affect the long-term viability of this species. Based on the parameterised vital rate functions and the observed climatic conditions, one of the studied populations had an average population growth rate above 1 (λ = 1.04), while the other was declining at ca. 3 % year(-1) (λ = 0.97). Variation in temperature and precipitation mainly affected population growth through their effect on survival and fecundity. Based on UK Climate Projection 2009 estimates of future climate conditions for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, population growth rates are expected to increase in one of the studied populations. Overall, our results indicate that the observed changes in climatic conditions appeared to be beneficial to the long-term survival of the species in the UK and suggest that they may have been the driving force behind the current range expansion of H. hircinum in England.

Impact of Simian Immunodeficiency Virus Infection on Chimpanzee Population Dynamics

PubMed Central

Rudicell, Rebecca S.; Holland Jones, James; Wroblewski, Emily E.; Learn, Gerald H.; Li, Yingying; Robertson, Joel D.; Greengrass, Elizabeth; Grossmann, Falk; Kamenya, Shadrack; Pintea, Lilian; Mjungu, Deus C.; Lonsdorf, Elizabeth V.; Mosser, Anna; Lehman, Clarence; Collins, D. Anthony; Keele, Brandon F.; Goodall, Jane; Hahn, Beatrice H.; Pusey, Anne E.; Wilson, Michael L.

2010-01-01

Like human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), simian immunodeficiency virus of chimpanzees (SIVcpz) can cause CD4+ T cell loss and premature death. Here, we used molecular surveillance tools and mathematical modeling to estimate the impact of SIVcpz infection on chimpanzee population dynamics. Habituated (Mitumba and Kasekela) and non-habituated (Kalande) chimpanzees were studied in Gombe National Park, Tanzania. Ape population sizes were determined from demographic records (Mitumba and Kasekela) or individual sightings and genotyping (Kalande), while SIVcpz prevalence rates were monitored using non-invasive methods. Between 2002–2009, the Mitumba and Kasekela communities experienced mean annual growth rates of 1.9% and 2.4%, respectively, while Kalande chimpanzees suffered a significant decline, with a mean growth rate of −6.5% to −7.4%, depending on population estimates. A rapid decline in Kalande was first noted in the 1990s and originally attributed to poaching and reduced food sources. However, between 2002–2009, we found a mean SIVcpz prevalence in Kalande of 46.1%, which was almost four times higher than the prevalence in Mitumba (12.7%) and Kasekela (12.1%). To explore whether SIVcpz contributed to the Kalande decline, we used empirically determined SIVcpz transmission probabilities as well as chimpanzee mortality, mating and migration data to model the effect of viral pathogenicity on chimpanzee population growth. Deterministic calculations indicated that a prevalence of greater than 3.4% would result in negative growth and eventual population extinction, even using conservative mortality estimates. However, stochastic models revealed that in representative populations, SIVcpz, and not its host species, frequently went extinct. High SIVcpz transmission probability and excess mortality reduced population persistence, while intercommunity migration often rescued infected communities, even when immigrating females had a chance of being SIVcpz infected. Together, these results suggest that the decline of the Kalande community was caused, at least in part, by high levels of SIVcpz infection. However, population extinction is not an inevitable consequence of SIVcpz infection, but depends on additional variables, such as migration, that promote survival. These findings are consistent with the uneven distribution of SIVcpz throughout central Africa and explain how chimpanzees in Gombe and elsewhere can be at equipoise with this pathogen. PMID:20886099

Using dynamic population simulations to extend resource selection analyses and prioritize habitats for conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heinrichs, Julie; Aldridge, Cameron L.; O'Donnell, Michael; Schumaker, Nathan

2017-01-01

Prioritizing habitats for conservation is a challenging task, particularly for species with fluctuating populations and seasonally dynamic habitat needs. Although the use of resource selection models to identify and prioritize habitat for conservation is increasingly common, their ability to characterize important long-term habitats for dynamic populations are variable. To examine how habitats might be prioritized differently if resource selection was directly and dynamically linked with population fluctuations and movement limitations among seasonal habitats, we constructed a spatially explicit individual-based model for a dramatically fluctuating population requiring temporally varying resources. Using greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming as a case study, we used resource selection function maps to guide seasonal movement and habitat selection, but emergent population dynamics and simulated movement limitations modified long-term habitat occupancy. We compared priority habitats in RSF maps to long-term simulated habitat use. We examined the circumstances under which the explicit consideration of movement limitations, in combination with population fluctuations and trends, are likely to alter predictions of important habitats. In doing so, we assessed the future occupancy of protected areas under alternative population and habitat conditions. Habitat prioritizations based on resource selection models alone predicted high use in isolated parcels of habitat and in areas with low connectivity among seasonal habitats. In contrast, results based on more biologically-informed simulations emphasized central and connected areas near high-density populations, sometimes predicted to be low selection value. Dynamic models of habitat use can provide additional biological realism that can extend, and in some cases, contradict habitat use predictions generated from short-term or static resource selection analyses. The explicit inclusion of population dynamics and movement propensities via spatial simulation modeling frameworks may provide an informative means of predicting long-term habitat use, particularly for fluctuating populations with complex seasonal habitat needs. Importantly, our results indicate the possible need to consider habitat selection models as a starting point rather than the common end point for refining and prioritizing habitats for protection for cyclic and highly variable populations.

Health state of adolescents in the Republic Sakha (Yakutia).

PubMed

Egorova, Vera B; Savvina, Nadezhda V; Munkhalova, Yana A; Dmitrieva, Tatyana G; Markova, Sardana V; Artamonova, Sargylana U

2016-01-01

According to the state policy in the field of health care, one of the priority directions is the improving of medical care for children's population [1]. It should be noted, that the state of health of the population and the development of society as a whole is largely determined by the level of adolescents health who have a significant impact on the health of the nation as a whole, and form the cultural, intellectual, industrial and reproductive potential [2, 3]. This article analyzes the health status indicators of adolescent population of the Republic Sakha (Yakutia), including the dynamics of the disease, including socially conditioned diseases, disability and mortality among the teenage population. To study of health status of adolescents, social condition of life and there dynamic we use statistic materials of Yakut Republican Medical informative-analytic center, carry out medical prophylactic examination and survey research of 748 adolescents in 7 districts of republic, using questionnaires Global epidemic surveillance system health status of schoolchildren with support from WHO / UNAIDS / UNICEF / UNESCOCO. Established negative trend of deceasing of adolescent population, the increase in performance of both primary and general morbidity. Out of the total incidence of first place ranking among teenagers occupied by respiratory diseases, diseases of the eye and diseases of the digestive system. The most intensive increased prevalence of neurological diseases, cardiovascular system diseases, injuries and poisoning, and others external causes. Over the years remain unstable indicators of socio-caused diseases (alcoholism, drug addiction, tuberculosis, sexually transmitted infections). Despite the positive dynamics of some socially constructed and socially significant diseases, the relevance of this problem persists. Analysis of the dynamics of disability among children and adolescents showed a reduction in performance. In the structure of disability dominate diseases of the nervous system and sensory organs, congenital malformations and mental illness. Among the main causes of deaths in adolescence are external causes, there is no downward trend. There were significant gender differences, the increase in mortality associated with substance use among children died prevail children Yakut nationality. These results let us to plan and conduct the prophylactic work to decrease the pathology level among adolescents, and also to detect the need in medical staff and other resources.

Single-trial dynamics of motor cortex and their applications to brain-machine interfaces

PubMed Central

Kao, Jonathan C.; Nuyujukian, Paul; Ryu, Stephen I.; Churchland, Mark M.; Cunningham, John P.; Shenoy, Krishna V.

2015-01-01

Increasing evidence suggests that neural population responses have their own internal drive, or dynamics, that describe how the neural population evolves through time. An important prediction of neural dynamical models is that previously observed neural activity is informative of noisy yet-to-be-observed activity on single-trials, and may thus have a denoising effect. To investigate this prediction, we built and characterized dynamical models of single-trial motor cortical activity. We find these models capture salient dynamical features of the neural population and are informative of future neural activity on single trials. To assess how neural dynamics may beneficially denoise single-trial neural activity, we incorporate neural dynamics into a brain–machine interface (BMI). In online experiments, we find that a neural dynamical BMI achieves substantially higher performance than its non-dynamical counterpart. These results provide evidence that neural dynamics beneficially inform the temporal evolution of neural activity on single trials and may directly impact the performance of BMIs. PMID:26220660

Population ecology of insect invasions and their management

Treesearch

Andrew M. Liebhold; Patrick C. Tobin

2008-01-01

During the establishment phase of a biological invasion, population dynamics are strongly influenced by Allee effects and stochastic dynamics, both of which may lead to extinction of low-density populations. Allee effects refer to a decline in population growth rate with a decline in abundance and can arise from various mechanisms. Strategies to eradicate newly...

Leading edge gypsy moth population dynamics

Treesearch

M. R. Carter; F. W. Ravlin; M. L. McManus

1991-01-01

Leading edge gypsy moth populations have been the focus of several intervention programs (MDIPM, AIPM). Knowledge of gypsy moth population dynamics in leading edge area is crucial for effective management. Populations in these areas tend to reach outbreak levels (noticeable defoliation) within three to four years after egg masses are first detected. Pheromone traps...

Wildlife disease ecology in changing landscapes: Mesopredator release and toxoplasmosis

PubMed Central

Hollings, Tracey; Jones, Menna; Mooney, Nick; McCallum, Hamish

2013-01-01

Changing ecosystem dynamics are increasing the threat of disease epidemics arising in wildlife populations. Several recent disease outbreaks have highlighted the critical need for understanding pathogen dynamics, including the role host densities play in disease transmission. In Australia, introduced feral cats are of immense concern because of the risk they pose to native wildlife through predation and competition. They are also the only known definitive host of the coccidian parasite, Toxoplasma gondii, the population-level impacts of which are unknown in any species. Australia’s native wildlife have not evolved in the presence of cats or their parasites, and feral cats may be linked with several native mammal declines and extinctions. In Tasmania there is emerging evidence that feral cat populations are increasing following wide-ranging and extensive declines in the apex predator, the Tasmanian devil, from a consistently fatal transmissible cancer. We assess whether feral cat density is associated with the seroprevalence of T. gondii in native wildlife to determine whether an increasing population of feral cats may correspond to an increased level of risk to naive native intermediate hosts. We found evidence that seroprevalence of T. gondii in Tasmanian pademelons was lower in the north-west of Tasmania than in the north-east and central regions where cat density was higher. Also, samples obtained from road-killed animals had significantly higher seroprevalence of T. gondii than those from culled individuals, suggesting there may be behavioural differences associated with infection. In addition, seroprevalence in different trophic levels was assessed to determine whether position in the food-web influences exposure risk. Higher order carnivores had significantly higher seroprevalence than medium-sized browser species. The highest seroprevalence observed in an intermediate host was 71% in spotted-tailed quolls (Dasyurus maculatus), the largest mammalian mesopredator, in areas of low cat density. Mesopredator release of cats may be a significant issue for native species conservation, potentially affecting the population viability of many endangered species. PMID:24533323

Unraveling the electronic relaxation dynamics in photoexcited 2,4-difluoroaniline via femtosecond time-resolved photoelectron imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ling, Fengzi; Li, Shuai; Wei, Jie; Liu, Kai; Wang, Yanmei; Zhang, Bing

2018-04-01

Time-resolved photoelectron imaging is employed to investigate the relaxation dynamics of the lowest two excited electronic states S1(ππ*) and S2(π3s/πσ*) in 2,4-difluoroaniline (24DFA). As the S1(ππ*) state is populated directly following 289 nm excitation, the population undergoes ultrafast intramolecular vibrational redistribution on a 540 fs time scale, followed by efficient intersystem crossing from S1(ππ*) to the triplet state within 379 ps, and the subsequent slower deactivation process of the triplet state. For excitation to the S2(π3s/πσ*) state at 238 nm, the population probably bifurcates into two decay channels. The dominant channel with 84 fs involves ultrafast internal conversion to the S1(ππ*) state, from which it relaxes to the electronic ground state on a 116 ps time scale. The other appears to involve motion along the S2(π3s/πσ*) potential energy surface. Our data also determine experimentally the electronic energies of S2(π3s/πσ*), S3(ππ*), and several Rydberg states in 24DFA.

Environmental variability and population dynamics: Do European and North American ducks play by the same rules?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pöysä, Hannu; Rintala, Jukka; Johnson, Douglas H.; Kauppinen, Jukka; Lammi, Esa; Nudds, Thomas D.; Väänänen, Veli-Matti

2016-01-01

Density dependence, population regulation, and variability in population size are fundamental population processes, the manifestation and interrelationships of which are affected by environmental variability. However, there are surprisingly few empirical studies that distinguish the effect of environmental variability from the effects of population processes. We took advantage of a unique system, in which populations of the same duck species or close ecological counterparts live in highly variable (north American prairies) and in stable (north European lakes) environments, to distinguish the relative contributions of environmental variability (measured as between-year fluctuations in wetland numbers) and intraspecific interactions (density dependence) in driving population dynamics. We tested whether populations living in stable environments (in northern Europe) were more strongly governed by density dependence than populations living in variable environments (in North America). We also addressed whether relative population dynamical responses to environmental variability versus density corresponded to differences in life history strategies between dabbling (relatively “fast species” and governed by environmental variability) and diving (relatively “slow species” and governed by density) ducks. As expected, the variance component of population fluctuations caused by changes in breeding environments was greater in North America than in Europe. Contrary to expectations, however, populations in more stable environments were not less variable nor clearly more strongly density dependent than populations in highly variable environments. Also, contrary to expectations, populations of diving ducks were neither more stable nor stronger density dependent than populations of dabbling ducks, and the effect of environmental variability on population dynamics was greater in diving than in dabbling ducks. In general, irrespective of continent and species life history, environmental variability contributed more to variation in species abundances than did density. Our findings underscore the need for more studies on populations of the same species in different environments to verify the generality of current explanations about population dynamics and its association with species life history.

Environmental variability and population dynamics: do European and North American ducks play by the same rules?

PubMed

Pöysä, Hannu; Rintala, Jukka; Johnson, Douglas H; Kauppinen, Jukka; Lammi, Esa; Nudds, Thomas D; Väänänen, Veli-Matti

2016-10-01

Density dependence, population regulation, and variability in population size are fundamental population processes, the manifestation and interrelationships of which are affected by environmental variability. However, there are surprisingly few empirical studies that distinguish the effect of environmental variability from the effects of population processes. We took advantage of a unique system, in which populations of the same duck species or close ecological counterparts live in highly variable (north American prairies) and in stable (north European lakes) environments, to distinguish the relative contributions of environmental variability (measured as between-year fluctuations in wetland numbers) and intraspecific interactions (density dependence) in driving population dynamics. We tested whether populations living in stable environments (in northern Europe) were more strongly governed by density dependence than populations living in variable environments (in North America). We also addressed whether relative population dynamical responses to environmental variability versus density corresponded to differences in life history strategies between dabbling (relatively "fast species" and governed by environmental variability) and diving (relatively "slow species" and governed by density) ducks. As expected, the variance component of population fluctuations caused by changes in breeding environments was greater in North America than in Europe. Contrary to expectations, however, populations in more stable environments were not less variable nor clearly more strongly density dependent than populations in highly variable environments. Also, contrary to expectations, populations of diving ducks were neither more stable nor stronger density dependent than populations of dabbling ducks, and the effect of environmental variability on population dynamics was greater in diving than in dabbling ducks. In general, irrespective of continent and species life history, environmental variability contributed more to variation in species abundances than did density. Our findings underscore the need for more studies on populations of the same species in different environments to verify the generality of current explanations about population dynamics and its association with species life history.

Determinative factors of competitive advantage between aerobic bacteria for niches at the air-liquid interface.

PubMed

Yamamoto, Kyosuke; Haruta, Shin; Kato, Souichiro; Ishii, Masaharu; Igarashi, Yasuo

2010-01-01

We focused on bacterial interspecies relationships at the air-liquid interface where the formation of pellicles by aerobes was observed. Although an obligate aerobe (Brevibacillus sp. M1-5) was initially dominant in the pellicle population, a facultative aerobe (Pseudoxanthomonas sp. M1-3) emerged and the viability of M1-5 rapidly decreased due to severe competition for oxygen. Supplementation of the medium with carbohydrates allowed the two species to coexist at the air-liquid interface. These results indicate that the population dynamics within pellicles are primarily governed by oxygen utilization which was affected by a combination of carbon sources.

Consumption dynamics of the adult piscivorous fish community in Spirit Lake, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liao, H.; Pierce, C.L.; Larscheid, J.G.

2004-01-01

At Spirit Lake, one of Iowa's most important fisheries, walleye Sander vitreus (formerly Stizostedion vitreum) is one of the most popular species with anglers. Despite a century of walleye stocking and management in Spirit Lake, walleye growth rate, size structure, and angler harvest continue to decline. Our purpose was to determine the magnitude and dynamics of walleye population consumption relative to those of other piscivorous species in Spirit Lake, which would allow managers to judge the feasibility of increasing the abundance, growth rate, and size structure of the walleye population. We quantified food consumption by the adult piscivorous fish community in Spirit Lake over a 3-year period. Data on population dynamics, diet, energy density, and water temperature from 1995 to 1997 were used in bioenergetics models to estimate total consumption by walleye, yellow perch Perca flavescens, smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu, largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides, black crappie Pomoxis nigromaculatus, and northern pike Esox lucius. Estimated annual consumption by the piscivorous community varied roughly fourfold, ranging from 154,752 kg in 1995 to 662,776 kg in 1997. Walleyes dominated total consumption, accounting for 68, 73, and 90% (1995-1997, respectively) of total food consumption. Walleyes were also the dominant consumers of fish, accounting for 76, 86, and 97% of piscivorous consumption; yellow perch followed, accounting for 16% of piscivorous consumption in 1995 and 12% in 1996. Yellow perch were the predominant fish prey species in all 3 years, accounting for 68, 52, and 36% of the total prey consumed. Natural reproduction is weak, so high walleye densities are maintained by intensive stocking. Walleye stocking drives piscivorous consumption in Spirit Lake, and yearly variation in the cannibalism of stocked walleye fry may be an important determinant of walleye year-class strength and angler success. Reducing walleye stocking intensity, varying stocking intensity from year to year, and attempting to match stocking intensity with the abundance of prey species other than walleye may improve the walleye fishery in Spirit Lake.

Evaluating mallard adaptive management models with time series

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conn, P.B.; Kendall, W.L.

2004-01-01

Wildlife practitioners concerned with midcontinent mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) management in the United States have instituted a system of adaptive harvest management (AHM) as an objective format for setting harvest regulations. Under the AHM paradigm, predictions from a set of models that reflect key uncertainties about processes underlying population dynamics are used in coordination with optimization software to determine an optimal set of harvest decisions. Managers use comparisons of the predictive abilities of these models to gauge the relative truth of different hypotheses about density-dependent recruitment and survival, with better-predicting models giving more weight to the determination of harvest regulations. We tested the effectiveness of this strategy by examining convergence rates of 'predictor' models when the true model for population dynamics was known a priori. We generated time series for cases when the a priori model was 1 of the predictor models as well as for several cases when the a priori model was not in the model set. We further examined the addition of different levels of uncertainty into the variance structure of predictor models, reflecting different levels of confidence about estimated parameters. We showed that in certain situations, the model-selection process favors a predictor model that incorporates the hypotheses of additive harvest mortality and weakly density-dependent recruitment, even when the model is not used to generate data. Higher levels of predictor model variance led to decreased rates of convergence to the model that generated the data, but model weight trajectories were in general more stable. We suggest that predictive models should incorporate all sources of uncertainty about estimated parameters, that the variance structure should be similar for all predictor models, and that models with different functional forms for population dynamics should be considered for inclusion in predictor model! sets. All of these suggestions should help lower the probability of erroneous learning in mallard ABM and adaptive management in general.

Canopy gaps affect long-term patterns of tree growth and mortality in mature and old-growth forests in the Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Andrew N. Gray; Thomas A. Spies; Robert J. Pabst

2012-01-01

Canopy gaps created by tree mortality can affect the speed and trajectory of vegetation growth. Species’ population dynamics, and spatial heterogeneity in mature forests. Most studies focus on plant development within gaps, yet gaps also affect the mortality and growth of surrounding trees, which influence shading and root encroachment into gaps and determine whether,...

Spatial and temporal optimization in habitat placement for a threatened plant: the case of the western prairie fringed orchid

Treesearch

John Hof; Carolyn Hull Sieg; Michael Bevers

1999-01-01

This paper investigates an optimization approach to determining the placement and timing of habitat protection for the western prairie fringed orchid. This plant’s population dynamics are complex, creating a challenging optimization problem. The sensitivity of the orchid to random climate conditions is handled probabilistically. The plant’s seed, protocorm and above-...

Dynamic light scattering: A fast and reliable method to analyze bacterial growth during the lag phase.

PubMed

Vargas, Susana; Millán-Chiu, Blanca E; Arvizu-Medrano, Sofía M; Loske, Achim M; Rodríguez, Rogelio

2017-06-01

A comparison between plate counting (PC) and dynamic light scattering (DLS) is reported. PC is the standard technique to determine bacterial population as a function of time; however, this method has drawbacks, such as the cumbersome preparation and handling of samples, as well as the long time required to obtain results. Alternative methods based on optical density are faster, but do not distinguish viable from non-viable cells. These inconveniences are overcome by using DLS. Two different bacteria strains were considered: Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus. DLS was performed at two different illuminating conditions: continuous and intermittent. By the increment of particle size as a function of time, it was possible to observe cell division and the formation of aggregates containing very few bacteria. The scattered intensity profiles showed the lag phase and the transition to the exponential phase of growth, providing a quantity proportional to viable bacteria concentration. The results revealed a clear and linear correlation in both lag and exponential phase, between the Log 10 (colony-forming units/mL) from PC and the Log 10 of the scattered intensity I s from DLS. These correlations provide a good support to use DLS as an alternative technique to determine bacterial population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

SPATIAL SCALE OF AUTOCORRELATION IN WISCONSIN FROG AND TOAD SURVEY DATA

EPA Science Inventory

The degree to which local population dynamics are correlated with nearby sites has important implications for metapopulation dynamics and landscape management. Spatially extensive monitoring data can be used to evaluate large-scale population dynamic processes. Our goals in this ...

A Conceptual Model of Riparian Forest Response to Channel Abandonment on Meandering Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stella, J. C.; Hayden, M. K.; Battles, J. J.; Piegay, H.; Dufour, S.; Fremier, A. K.

2008-12-01

On alluvial rivers, hydrogeomorphic regimes exert a primary control on the regeneration of pioneer riparian forest stands and thus their composition and age structure. Seasonal flow patterns provide the necessary conditions for recruitment, and channel migration drives patterns of forest stand dynamics. To date, studies of pioneer riparian forest structure have focused primarily on point bar habitats, where woody vegetation typically recruits with decadal frequency in even-aged bands parallel to the river margin. However, there are indications that other recruitment pathways exist and can be important from a population and conservation perspective. On floodplains where channel migration occurs as infrequent cutoff or avulsion events, the geometry and position of the old channel relative to the new one determines rates and patterns of sedimentation and flood frequency. These conditions provide a brief opportunity for forest recruitment, and geomorphic evolution of the former channel habitat in turn influences forest dynamics. The population implications of this alternative forest regeneration pathway depend on the temporal dynamics of channel abandonment versus the rate of lateral channel migration. Preliminary analysis indicates that the geographic scope of this ecogeomorphological process is sizable. Along the Sacramento River (CA) and Ain River (France), for example, cottonwood-dominated stands associated with abandoned channels tend to be less frequent in number (38% of all stands) but larger in area (accounting for 53% of all forest area) relative to forest stands associated with laterally migrating point bars. Dendrochronological analysis confirms that tree ages in floodplain stands corresponds to the first decade after channel abandonment. These data indicate that changes to the rate and scale of channel abandonment due to human and climatic alterations to the flow regime will likely influence riparian corridor-wide tree population structure and forest dynamics.

Emerging Concepts of Data Integration in Pathogen Phylodynamics.

PubMed

Baele, Guy; Suchard, Marc A; Rambaut, Andrew; Lemey, Philippe

2017-01-01

Phylodynamics has become an increasingly popular statistical framework to extract evolutionary and epidemiological information from pathogen genomes. By harnessing such information, epidemiologists aim to shed light on the spatio-temporal patterns of spread and to test hypotheses about the underlying interaction of evolutionary and ecological dynamics in pathogen populations. Although the field has witnessed a rich development of statistical inference tools with increasing levels of sophistication, these tools initially focused on sequences as their sole primary data source. Integrating various sources of information, however, promises to deliver more precise insights in infectious diseases and to increase opportunities for statistical hypothesis testing. Here, we review how the emerging concept of data integration is stimulating new advances in Bayesian evolutionary inference methodology which formalize a marriage of statistical thinking and evolutionary biology. These approaches include connecting sequence to trait evolution, such as for host, phenotypic and geographic sampling information, but also the incorporation of covariates of evolutionary and epidemic processes in the reconstruction procedures. We highlight how a full Bayesian approach to covariate modeling and testing can generate further insights into sequence evolution, trait evolution, and population dynamics in pathogen populations. Specific examples demonstrate how such approaches can be used to test the impact of host on rabies and HIV evolutionary rates, to identify the drivers of influenza dispersal as well as the determinants of rabies cross-species transmissions, and to quantify the evolutionary dynamics of influenza antigenicity. Finally, we briefly discuss how data integration is now also permeating through the inference of transmission dynamics, leading to novel insights into tree-generative processes and detailed reconstructions of transmission trees. [Bayesian inference; birth–death models; coalescent models; continuous trait evolution; covariates; data integration; discrete trait evolution; pathogen phylodynamics.

Wavelet Imaging on Multiple Scales (WIMS) reveals focal adhesion distributions, dynamics and coupling between actomyosin bundle stability

PubMed Central

Toplak, Tim; Palmieri, Benoit; Juanes-García, Alba; Vicente-Manzanares, Miguel; Grant, Martin; Wiseman, Paul W.

2017-01-01

We introduce and use Wavelet Imaging on Multiple Scales (WIMS) as an improvement to fluorescence correlation spectroscopy to measure physical processes and features that occur across multiple length scales. In this study, wavelet transforms of cell images are used to characterize molecular dynamics at the cellular and subcellular levels (i.e. focal adhesions). We show the usefulness of the technique by applying WIMS to an image time series of a migrating osteosarcoma cell expressing fluorescently labelled adhesion proteins, which allows us to characterize different components of the cell ranging from optical resolution scale through to focal adhesion and whole cell size scales. Using WIMS we measured focal adhesion numbers, orientation and cell boundary velocities for retraction and protrusion. We also determine the internal dynamics of individual focal adhesions undergoing assembly, disassembly or elongation. Thus confirming as previously shown, WIMS reveals that the number of adhesions and the area of the protruding region of the cell are strongly correlated, establishing a correlation between protrusion size and adhesion dynamics. We also apply this technique to characterize the behavior of adhesions, actin and myosin in Chinese hamster ovary cells expressing a mutant form of myosin IIB (1935D) that displays decreased filament stability and impairs front-back cell polarity. We find separate populations of actin and myosin at each adhesion pole for both the mutant and wild type form. However, we find these populations move rapidly inwards toward one another in the mutant case in contrast to the cells that express wild type myosin IIB where those populations remain stationary. Results obtained with these two systems demonstrate how WIMS has the potential to reveal novel correlations between chosen parameters that belong to different scales. PMID:29049414

Emerging Concepts of Data Integration in Pathogen Phylodynamics

PubMed Central

Baele, Guy; Suchard, Marc A.; Rambaut, Andrew; Lemey, Philippe

2017-01-01

Phylodynamics has become an increasingly popular statistical framework to extract evolutionary and epidemiological information from pathogen genomes. By harnessing such information, epidemiologists aim to shed light on the spatio-temporal patterns of spread and to test hypotheses about the underlying interaction of evolutionary and ecological dynamics in pathogen populations. Although the field has witnessed a rich development of statistical inference tools with increasing levels of sophistication, these tools initially focused on sequences as their sole primary data source. Integrating various sources of information, however, promises to deliver more precise insights in infectious diseases and to increase opportunities for statistical hypothesis testing. Here, we review how the emerging concept of data integration is stimulating new advances in Bayesian evolutionary inference methodology which formalize a marriage of statistical thinking and evolutionary biology. These approaches include connecting sequence to trait evolution, such as for host, phenotypic and geographic sampling information, but also the incorporation of covariates of evolutionary and epidemic processes in the reconstruction procedures. We highlight how a full Bayesian approach to covariate modeling and testing can generate further insights into sequence evolution, trait evolution, and population dynamics in pathogen populations. Specific examples demonstrate how such approaches can be used to test the impact of host on rabies and HIV evolutionary rates, to identify the drivers of influenza dispersal as well as the determinants of rabies cross-species transmissions, and to quantify the evolutionary dynamics of influenza antigenicity. Finally, we briefly discuss how data integration is now also permeating through the inference of transmission dynamics, leading to novel insights into tree-generative processes and detailed reconstructions of transmission trees. [Bayesian inference; birth–death models; coalescent models; continuous trait evolution; covariates; data integration; discrete trait evolution; pathogen phylodynamics. PMID:28173504

Dynamic occupancy modelling reveals a hierarchy of competition among fishers, grey foxes and ringtails.

PubMed

Green, David S; Matthews, Sean M; Swiers, Robert C; Callas, Richard L; Scott Yaeger, J; Farber, Stuart L; Schwartz, Michael K; Powell, Roger A

2018-05-01

Determining how species coexist is critical for understanding functional diversity, niche partitioning and interspecific interactions. Identifying the direct and indirect interactions among sympatric carnivores that enable their coexistence is particularly important to elucidate because they are integral for maintaining ecosystem function. We studied the effects of removing nine fishers (Pekania pennanti) on their population dynamics and used this perturbation to elucidate the interspecific interactions among fishers, grey foxes (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) and ringtails (Bassariscus astutus). Grey foxes (family: Canidae) are likely to compete with fishers due to their similar body sizes and dietary overlap, and ringtails (family: Procyonidae), like fishers, are semi-arboreal species of conservation concern. We used spatial capture-recapture to investigate fisher population numbers and dynamic occupancy models that incorporated interspecific interactions to investigate the effects members of these species had on the colonization and persistence of each other's site occupancy. The fisher population showed no change in density for up to 3 years following the removals of fishers for translocations. In contrast, fisher site occupancy decreased in the years immediately following the translocations. During this same time period, site occupancy by grey foxes increased and remained elevated through the end of the study. We found a complicated hierarchy among fishers, foxes and ringtails. Fishers affected grey fox site persistence negatively but had a positive effect on their colonization. Foxes had a positive effect on ringtail site colonization. Thus, fishers were the dominant small carnivore where present and negatively affected foxes directly and ringtails indirectly. Coexistence among the small carnivores we studied appears to reflect dynamic spatial partitioning. Conservation and management efforts should investigate how intraguild interactions may influence the recolonization of carnivores to previously occupied landscapes. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

AN INDIVIDUAL-BASED MODEL OF COTTUS POPULATION DYNAMICS

EPA Science Inventory

We explored population dynamics of a southern Appalachian population of Cottus bairdi using a spatially-explicit, individual-based model. The model follows daily growth, mortality, and spawning of individuals as a function of flow and temperature. We modeled movement of juveniles...

Social and economic influences on human behavioural response in an emerging epidemic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phang, P.; Wiwatanapataphee, B.; Wu, Y. H.

2017-10-01

The human behavioural changes have been recognized as an important key in shaping the disease spreading and determining the success of control measures in the course of epidemic outbreaks. However, apart from cost-benefit considerations, in reality, people are heterogeneous in their preferences towards adopting certain protective actions to reduce their risk of infection, and social norms have a function in individuals’ decision making. Here, we studied the interplay between the epidemic dynamics, imitation dynamics and the heterogeneity of individual protective behavioural response under the considerations of both economic and social factors, with a simple mathematical compartmental model and multi-population game dynamical replicator equations. We assume that susceptibles in different subpopulations have different preferences in adopting either normal or altered behaviour. By incorporating both intra- and inter-group social pressure, the outcome of the strategy distribution depends on the initial proportion of susceptible with normal and altered strategies in both subpopulations. The increase of additional cost to susceptible with altered behaviour will discourage people to take up protective actions and hence results in higher epidemic final size. For a specific cost of altered behaviour, the social group pressure could be a “double edge sword”, though. We conclude that the interplays between individual protective behaviour adoption, imitation and epidemic dynamics are necessarily complex if both economic and social factors act on populations with existing preferences.

Evolutionary dynamics of cooperation in neutral populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szolnoki, Attila; Perc, Matjaž

2018-01-01

Cooperation is a difficult proposition in the face of Darwinian selection. Those that defect have an evolutionary advantage over cooperators who should therefore die out. However, spatial structure enables cooperators to survive through the formation of homogeneous clusters, which is the hallmark of network reciprocity. Here we go beyond this traditional setup and study the spatiotemporal dynamics of cooperation in a population of populations. We use the prisoner's dilemma game as the mathematical model and show that considering several populations simultaneously gives rise to fascinating spatiotemporal dynamics and pattern formation. Even the simplest assumption that strategies between different populations are payoff-neutral with one another results in the spontaneous emergence of cyclic dominance, where defectors of one population become prey of cooperators in the other population, and vice versa. Moreover, if social interactions within different populations are characterized by significantly different temptations to defect, we observe that defectors in the population with the largest temptation counterintuitively vanish the fastest, while cooperators that hang on eventually take over the whole available space. Our results reveal that considering the simultaneous presence of different populations significantly expands the complexity of evolutionary dynamics in structured populations, and it allows us to understand the stability of cooperation under adverse conditions that could never be bridged by network reciprocity alone.

Long-term dynamics of natural populations of Schistosoma mansoni among Rattus rattus in patchy environment.

PubMed

Théron, A; Pointier, J P; Morand, S; Imbert-Establet, D; Borel, G

1992-04-01

Dynamics of natural populations of Schistosoma mansoni were studied during 8 consecutive years among Rattus rattus populations from 8 transmission sites of the marshy forest focus of Guadeloupe (French West Indies). The schistosome population is over-dispersed (k = 0.119) within the murine hosts and ecological factors linked to the patchy environment may be responsible for such aggregated distribution. Analysis of the spatio-temporal variations in prevalences, intensities and abundances showed limited variations of the infection during the 8 years at the level of the whole parasite population but great spatial heterogeneity at the level of local schistosome populations. Inter-populational genetic variability linked to the degree of adaptation of this human parasite to the murine host may explain differences in transmission dynamics between the local populations of S. mansoni.

Non-Crop Host Sampling Yields Insights into Small-Scale Population Dynamics of Drosophila suzukii (Matsumura)

PubMed Central

Loeb, Gregory M.

2018-01-01

Invasive, polyphagous crop pests subsist on a number of crop and non-crop resources. While knowing the full range of host species is important, a seasonal investigation into the use of non-crop plants adjacent to cropping systems provide key insights into some of the factors determining local population dynamics. This study investigated the infestation of non-crop plants by the invasive Drosophila suzukii (Matsumura), a pest of numerous economically important stone and small fruit crops, by sampling fruit-producing non-crop hosts adjacent to commercial plantings weekly from June through November in central New York over a two-year period. We found D. suzukii infestation rates (number of flies emerged/kg fruit) peaked mid-August through early September, with Rubus allegheniensis Porter and Lonicera morrowii Asa Gray showing the highest average infestation in both years. Interannual infestation patterns were similar despite a lower number of adults caught in monitoring traps the second year, suggesting D. suzukii host use may be density independent. PMID:29301358

A diffusion-based approach to stochastic individual growth and energy budget, with consequences to life-history optimization and population dynamics.

PubMed

Filin, I

2009-06-01

Using diffusion processes, I model stochastic individual growth, given exogenous hazards and starvation risk. By maximizing survival to final size, optimal life histories (e.g. switching size for habitat/dietary shift) are determined by two ratios: mean growth rate over growth variance (diffusion coefficient) and mortality rate over mean growth rate; all are size dependent. For example, switching size decreases with either ratio, if both are positive. I provide examples and compare with previous work on risk-sensitive foraging and the energy-predation trade-off. I then decompose individual size into reversibly and irreversibly growing components, e.g. reserves and structure. I provide a general expression for optimal structural growth, when reserves grow stochastically. I conclude that increased growth variance of reserves delays structural growth (raises threshold size for its commencement) but may eventually lead to larger structures. The effect depends on whether the structural trait is related to foraging or defence. Implications for population dynamics are discussed.

Electronic excitations in shocked nitromethane

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reed, Evan J.; Joannopoulos, J. D.; Fried, Laurence E.

2000-12-15

The nature of electronic excitations in crystalline solid nitromethane under conditions of shock loading and static compression are examined. Density-functional theory calculations are used to determine the crystal bandgap under hydrostatic stress, uniaxial strain, and shear strain. Bandgap lowering under uniaxial strain due to molecular defects and vacancies is considered. Ab initio molecular-dynamics simulations are done of all possible nearest-neighbor collisions at a shock front, and of crystal shearing along a sterically hindered slip plane. In all cases, the bandgap is not lowered enough to produce a significant population of excited states in the crystal. The nearly free rotation ofmore » the nitromethane methyl group and localized nature of the highest occupied molecular orbital and lowest unoccupied molecular orbital states play a role in this result. Dynamical effects have a more significant effect on the bandgap than static effects, but relative molecule velocities in excess of 6 km/s are required to produce a significant thermal population of excited states.« less

Age-related changes in human vestibulo-ocular reflexes: Sinusoidal rotation and caloric tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peterka, R. J.; Black, F. O.; Schoenhoff, M. B.

1989-01-01

The dynamic response properties of horizontal vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) were characterized in 216 human subjects ranging in age from 7 to 81 years. The object of this cross-sectional study was to determine the effects of aging on VOR dynamics, and to identify the distributions of parameters which describe VOR responses to caloric and to sinusoidal rotational stimuli in a putatively normal population. Caloric test parameters showed no consistent trend with age. Rotation test parameters showed declining response amplitude and slightly less compensatory response phase with increasing age. The magnitudes of these changes were not large relative to the variability within the population. The age-related trends in VOR were not consistent with the anatomic changes in the periphery reported by others which showed an increasing rate of peripheral hair cell and nerve fiber loss in subjects over 55 years. The poor correlation between physiological and anatomical data suggest that adaptive mechanisms in the central nervous system are important in maintaining the VOR.

Structure in sheared supercooled liquids: Dynamical rearrangements of an effective system of icosahedra.

PubMed

Pinney, Rhiannon; Liverpool, Tanniemola B; Royall, C Patrick

2016-12-21

We consider a binary Lennard-Jones glassformer whose super-Arrhenius dynamics are correlated with the formation of particles organized into icosahedra under simple steady state shear. We recast this glassformer as an effective system of icosahedra [Pinney et al., J. Chem. Phys. 143, 244507 (2015)]. From the observed population of icosahedra in each steady state, we obtain an effective temperature which is linearly dependent on the shear rate in the range considered. Upon shear banding, the system separates into a region of high shear rate and a region of low shear rate. The effective temperatures obtained in each case show that the low shear regions correspond to a significantly lower temperature than the high shear regions. Taking a weighted average of the effective temperature of these regions (weight determined by region size) yields an estimate of the effective temperature which compares well with an effective temperature based on the global mesocluster population of the whole system.

HOW POPULATION STRUCTURE SHAPES NEIGHBORHOOD SEGREGATION*

PubMed Central

Bruch, Elizabeth E.

2014-01-01

This study investigates how choices about social affiliation based on one attribute can exacerbate or attenuate segregation on another correlated attribute. The specific application is the role of racial and economic factors in generating patterns of racial residential segregation. I identify three population parameters—between-group inequality, within-group inequality, and relative group size—that determine how income inequality between race groups affects racial segregation. I use data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to estimate models of individual-level residential mobility, and incorporate these estimates into agent-based models. I then simulate segregation dynamics under alternative assumptions about: (1) the relative size of minority groups; and (2) the degree of correlation between race and income among individuals. I find that income inequality can have offsetting effects at the high and low ends of the income distribution. I demonstrate the empirical relevance of the simulation results using fixed-effects, metro-level regressions applied to 1980-2000 U.S. Census data. PMID:25009360

Evolutionary Game Theory in Growing Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melbinger, Anna; Cremer, Jonas; Frey, Erwin

2010-10-01

Existing theoretical models of evolution focus on the relative fitness advantages of different mutants in a population while the dynamic behavior of the population size is mostly left unconsidered. We present here a generic stochastic model which combines the growth dynamics of the population and its internal evolution. Our model thereby accounts for the fact that both evolutionary and growth dynamics are based on individual reproduction events and hence are highly coupled and stochastic in nature. We exemplify our approach by studying the dilemma of cooperation in growing populations and show that genuinely stochastic events can ease the dilemma by leading to a transient but robust increase in cooperation.

[The dynamics of heath indicators of population of industrial town].

PubMed

Kalinkin, D E; Karpov, A B; Takhauov, R M; Samoĭlova, Iu A

2013-01-01

The article presents the results of analysis of dynamics of health indicators of population of industrial town (medical demographic indicators, disability, morbidity of social hygienically important diseases) during 1970-2010. The classified administrative territorial municipality of Seversk constructed near the Siberian chemical industrial center, the internationally first-rate complex of nuclear industry enterprises was used as a research base. It is demonstrated that dynamics of health indicators of studied population had such negative tendencies as rapid population ageing, population loss due to decrease of natality and increase of mortality (population of able-bodied age included), prevalence of cardio-vascular diseases, malignant neoplasms and external causes, chronization of diseases. The established tendencies are to be considered in management decision making targeted to support and promote population health in industrial towns.

Population-reaction model and microbial experimental ecosystems for understanding hierarchical dynamics of ecosystems.

PubMed

Hosoda, Kazufumi; Tsuda, Soichiro; Kadowaki, Kohmei; Nakamura, Yutaka; Nakano, Tadashi; Ishii, Kojiro

2016-02-01

Understanding ecosystem dynamics is crucial as contemporary human societies face ecosystem degradation. One of the challenges that needs to be recognized is the complex hierarchical dynamics. Conventional dynamic models in ecology often represent only the population level and have yet to include the dynamics of the sub-organism level, which makes an ecosystem a complex adaptive system that shows characteristic behaviors such as resilience and regime shifts. The neglect of the sub-organism level in the conventional dynamic models would be because integrating multiple hierarchical levels makes the models unnecessarily complex unless supporting experimental data are present. Now that large amounts of molecular and ecological data are increasingly accessible in microbial experimental ecosystems, it is worthwhile to tackle the questions of their complex hierarchical dynamics. Here, we propose an approach that combines microbial experimental ecosystems and a hierarchical dynamic model named population-reaction model. We present a simple microbial experimental ecosystem as an example and show how the system can be analyzed by a population-reaction model. We also show that population-reaction models can be applied to various ecological concepts, such as predator-prey interactions, climate change, evolution, and stability of diversity. Our approach will reveal a path to the general understanding of various ecosystems and organisms. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Further data on removal and repopulation of the breeding birds in a spruce-fir forest community

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hensley, M.M.; Cope, J.B.

1951-01-01

During June and July of 1950 the writers were engaged in a study of bird populations in northern Maine in conjunction with investigations to determine the effectiveness of the breeding bird population as a controlling agent of the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana. The field work was started in 1949 and the current project was a continuation. The entomological phase of the study during both seasons was conducted under the supervision of Philip B. Dowden and V. M. Carolin of the Bureau of Entomology and Plant Quarantine; the initial bird population study was made by John W. Aldrich and Robert E. Stewart of the Fish and Wildlife Service (See page 471 of this issue of 'The Auk').Many data were accumulated concerning bird population dynamics during the initial study. To compare the results of the two seasons and to present other significant facts, additional data are presented here.

Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography.

PubMed

Bost, Charles A; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

2015-10-27

Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.

Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bost, Charles A.; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

2015-10-01

Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.

Population dynamics and rural poverty.

PubMed

Fong, M S

1985-01-01

An overview of the relationship between demographic factors and rural poverty in developing countries is presented. The author examines both the micro- and macro-level perspectives of this relationship and the determinants and consequences of population growth. The author notes the prospects for a rapid increase in the rural labor force and considers its implications for the agricultural production structure and the need for institutional change. Consideration is also given to the continuing demand for high fertility at the family level and the role of infant and child mortality in the poverty cycle. "The paper concludes by drawing attention to the need for developing the mechanism for reconciliation of social and individual optima with respect to family size and population growth." The need for rural development projects that take demographic factors into account is stressed as is the need for effective population programs. (summary in FRE, ITA) excerpt

Describing the geographic spread of dengue disease by traveling waves.

PubMed

Maidana, Norberto Aníbal; Yang, Hyun Mo

2008-09-01

Dengue is a human disease transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti. For this reason geographical regions infested by this mosquito species are under the risk of dengue outbreaks. In this work, we propose a mathematical model to study the spatial dissemination of dengue using a system of partial differential reaction-diffusion equations. With respect to the human and mosquito populations, we take into account their respective subclasses of infected and uninfected individuals. The dynamics of the mosquito population considers only two subpopulations: the winged form (mature female mosquitoes), and an aquatic population (comprising eggs, larvae and pupae). We disregard the long-distance movement by transportation facilities, for which reason the diffusion is considered restricted only to the winged form. The human population is considered homogeneously distributed in space, in order to describe localized dengue dissemination during a short period of epidemics. The cross-infection is modeled by the law of mass action. A threshold value as a function of the model's parameters is obtained, which determines the rate of dengue dissemination and the risk of dengue outbreaks. Assuming that an area was previously colonized by the mosquitoes, the rate of disease dissemination is determined as a function of the model's parameters. This rate of dissemination of dengue disease is determined by applying the traveling wave solutions to the corresponding system of partial differential equations.