Interactions between demography and environmental effects are important determinants of population dynamics

PubMed Central

Gamelon, Marlène; Grøtan, Vidar; Nilsson, Anna L. K.; Engen, Steinar; Hurrell, James W.; Jerstad, Kurt; Phillips, Adam S.; Røstad, Ole W.; Slagsvold, Tore; Walseng, Bjørn; Stenseth, Nils C.; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2017-01-01

Climate change will affect the population dynamics of many species, yet the consequences for the long-term persistence of populations are poorly understood. A major reason for this is that density-dependent feedback effects caused by fluctuations in population size are considered independent of stochastic variation in the environment. We show that an interplay between winter temperature and population density can influence the persistence of a small passerine population under global warming. Although warmer winters favor an increased mean population size, density-dependent feedback can cause the local population to be less buffered against occasional poor environmental conditions (cold winters). This shows that it is essential to go beyond the population size and explore climate effects on the full dynamics to elaborate targeted management actions. PMID:28164157

Alternative foraging strategies enable a mountain ungulate to persist after migration loss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Courtemanch, Alyson B.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Kilpatrick, Steve; Dewey, Sarah R.

2017-01-01

The persistence of many migratory ungulate populations worldwide is threatened due to anthropogenic impacts to seasonal ranges and migration routes. While many studies have linked migratory ungulate declines to migration disruption or loss, very few have explored the underlying factors that determine whether a population perishes or persists. In some cases, populations undergo severe declines and extirpation after migration loss; however, others appear able to persist as residents. We predict that to persist, populations must replace the traditional benefits of migration by altering the foraging strategies they employ as residents within one seasonal range. We propose the alternative foraging strategies (AFS) hypothesis as a framework for identifying various behavioral strategies that populations may use to cope with migration loss. We tested the hypothesis using the formerly migratory Teton bighorn sheep population in northwest Wyoming, which ceased migrating over 60 yr ago, but has persisted as a resident population. We used global positioning system data to evaluate winter and summer habitat selection and seasonal elevational movements for 28 adult female bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) from 2008 to 2010. Resource selection functions revealed that bighorn sheep employ winter foraging strategies to survive as residents by seeking out rugged, high-elevation, windswept ridgelines. Seasonal movement analyses indicated that bighorn sheep undergo a newly documented “abbreviated migration” strategy that is closely synchronized with vegetation green-up patterns within their one range. Bighorn sheep descend 500 m in elevation and travel up to 10 km in spring, gaining access to newly emergent forage approximately 30 d before it appears on their high-elevation winter and summer ranges. Our findings indicate that the Teton bighorn sheep population has persisted due to its habitat selection, AFS, and unique movement patterns, which allow migration loss to be mediated to some extent. The identification of AFS and the habitats that support them can help reveal the underlying benefits of migration and conserve populations in the face of future migration loss.

Evolution of acuteness in pathogen metapopulations: conflicts between “classical” and invasion-persistence trade-offs

PubMed Central

Shrestha, Sourya; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.; King, Aaron A.

2014-01-01

Classical life-history theory predicts that acute, immunizing pathogens should maximize between-host transmission. When such pathogens induce violent epidemic outbreaks, however, a pathogen’s short-term advantage at invasion may come at the expense of its ability to persist in the population over the long term. Here, we seek to understand how the classical and invasion-persistence trade-offs interact to shape pathogen life-history evolution as a function of the size and structure of the host population. We develop an individual-based infection model at three distinct levels of organization: within an individual host, among hosts within a local population, and among local populations within a metapopulation. We find a continuum of evolutionarily stable pathogen strategies. At one end of the spectrum—in large well-mixed populations—pathogens evolve to greater acuteness to maximize between-host transmission: the classical trade-off theory applies in this regime. At the other end of the spectrum—when the host population is broken into many small patches—selection favors less acute pathogens, which persist longer within a patch and thereby achieve enhanced between-patch transmission: the invasion-persistence tradeoff dominates in this regime. Between these extremes, we explore the effects of the size and structure of the host population in determining pathogen strategy. In general, pathogen strategies respond to evolutionary pressures arising at both scales. PMID:25214895

Persistence in a Two-Dimensional Moving-Habitat Model.

PubMed

Phillips, Austin; Kot, Mark

2015-11-01

Environmental changes are forcing many species to track suitable conditions or face extinction. In this study, we use a two-dimensional integrodifference equation to analyze whether a population can track a habitat that is moving due to climate change. We model habitat as a simple rectangle. Our model quickly leads to an eigenvalue problem that determines whether the population persists or declines. After surveying techniques to solve the eigenvalue problem, we highlight three findings that impact conservation efforts such as reserve design and species risk assessment. First, while other models focus on habitat length (parallel to the direction of habitat movement), we show that ignoring habitat width (perpendicular to habitat movement) can lead to overestimates of persistence. Dispersal barriers and hostile landscapes that constrain habitat width greatly decrease the population's ability to track its habitat. Second, for some long-distance dispersal kernels, increasing habitat length improves persistence without limit; for other kernels, increasing length is of limited help and has diminishing returns. Third, it is not always best to orient the long side of the habitat in the direction of climate change. Evidence suggests that the kurtosis of the dispersal kernel determines whether it is best to have a long, wide, or square habitat. In particular, populations with platykurtic dispersal benefit more from a wide habitat, while those with leptokurtic dispersal benefit more from a long habitat. We apply our model to the Rocky Mountain Apollo butterfly (Parnassius smintheus).

Persistence of African American Men in Science: Exploring the Influence of Scientist Identity, Mentoring, and Campus Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guy, Breonte Stephan

The scant literature on persistence of African American males in science typically takes a deficits-based approach to encapsulate the myriad reasons this population is so often underrepresented. Scientist Identity, Mentoring, and Campus Climate have, individually, been found to be related to the persistence of African American students. However, the unified impact of these three variables on the persistence of African American students with science interests has not been evaluated, and the relationship between the variables, the students' gender, and markers of academic achievement have not been previously investigated. The current study takes a strengths-based approach to evaluating the relationship between Scientist Identity, Mentoring, and Campus climate with a population of African American students with science interests who were studying at six Minority Serving Institutions and Predominantly White Institutions in the Southern United States. Multiple regression analyses were conducted to determine the impact of Scientist Identity, Mentoring, and Campus Climate on Intention to Persist of African American males. The results indicate that Scientist Identity predicts Intention to Persist, and that gender, academic performance, and institution type moderate the relationship between Scientist Identity and Intention to Persist. These results lend credence to the emerging notion that, for African American men studying science, generating a greater depth and breadth of understanding of the factors that lead to persistence will aid in the development of best practices for supporting persistence among this perpetually underrepresented population.

Critical patch-size for two-sex populations.

PubMed

Andreguetto Maciel, Gabriel; Mendes Coutinho, Renato; André Kraenkel, Roberto

2018-06-01

As environments become increasingly degraded, mainly due to human activities, species are often subject to isolated habitats surrounded by unfavorable regions. Since the pioneering work by Skellam [25] mathematical models have provided useful insights into the population persistence in such cases. Most of these models, however, neglect the sex structure of populations and the differences between males and females. In this work we investigate, through a reaction-diffusion system, the dynamics of a sex-structured population in a single semipermeable patch. The critical patch size for persistence is determined from implicit relationships between model parameters. The effects of the various growth and movement parameters are also investigated. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Interactions between social structure, demography, and transmission determine disease persistence in primates.

PubMed

Ryan, Sadie J; Jones, James H; Dobson, Andrew P

2013-01-01

Catastrophic declines in African great ape populations due to disease outbreaks have been reported in recent years, yet we rarely hear of similar disease impacts for the more solitary Asian great apes, or for smaller primates. We used an age-structured model of different primate social systems to illustrate that interactions between social structure and demography create 'dynamic constraints' on the pathogens that can establish and persist in primate host species with different social systems. We showed that this varies by disease transmission mode. Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) require high rates of transmissibility to persist within a primate population. In particular, for a unimale social system, STIs require extremely high rates of transmissibility for persistence, and remain at extremely low prevalence in small primates, but this is less constrained in longer-lived, larger-bodied primates. In contrast, aerosol transmitted infections (ATIs) spread and persist at high prevalence in medium and large primates with moderate transmissibility;, establishment and persistence in small-bodied primates require higher relative rates of transmissibility. Intragroup contact structure - the social network - creates different constraints for different transmission modes, and our model underscores the importance of intragroup contacts on infection prior to intergroup movement in a structured population. When alpha males dominate sexual encounters, the resulting disease transmission dynamics differ from when social interactions are dominated by mother-infant grooming events, for example. This has important repercussions for pathogen spread across populations. Our framework reveals essential social and demographic characteristics of primates that predispose them to different disease risks that will be important for disease management and conservation planning for protected primate populations.

Comparative Ploidy Proteomics of Candida albicans Biofilms Unraveled the Role of the AHP1 Gene in the Biofilm Persistence Against Amphotericin B*

PubMed Central

Zeng, Guisheng; Qingsong, Lin; Kwang, Lim Teck; Tong, Cao; Chan, Fong Yee; Wang, Yue; Seneviratne, Chaminda Jayampath

2016-01-01

Candida albicans is a major fungal pathogen causing lethal infections in immunocompromised patients. C. albicans forms antifungal tolerant biofilms contributing significantly to therapeutic failure. The recently established haploid C. albicans biofilm model provides a new toolbox to uncover the mechanism governing the higher antifungal tolerance of biofilms. Here, we comprehensively examined the proteomics and antifungal susceptibility of standard diploid (SC5314 and BWP17) and stable haploid (GZY792 and GZY803) strains of C. albicans biofilms. Subsequent downstream analyses identified alkyl hydroperoxide reductase 1 (AHP1) as a critical determinant of C. albicans biofilm's tolerance of amphotericin B. At 32 μg/ml of amphotericin B, GZY803 haploid biofilms showed 0.1% of persister population as compared with 1% of the diploid biofilms. AHP1 expression was found to be lower in GZY803 biofilms, and AHP1 overexpression in GZY803 restored the percentage of persister population. Consistently, deleting AHP1 in the diploid strain BWP17 caused a similar increase in amphotericin B susceptibility. AHP1 expression was also positively correlated with the antioxidant potential. Furthermore, C. albicans ira2Δ/Δ biofilms were susceptible to amphotericin B and had a diminished antioxidant capacity. Interestingly, AHP1 overexpression in the ira2Δ/Δ strain restored the antioxidant potential and enhanced the persister population against amphotericin B, and shutting down the AHP1 expression in ira2Δ/Δ biofilms reversed the effect. In conclusion, we provide evidence that the AHP1 gene critically determines the amphotericin B tolerance of C. albicans biofilms possibly by maintaining the persisters' antioxidant capacity. This finding will open up new avenues for developing therapies targeting the persister population of C. albicans biofilms. The mass spectrometry proteomics data are available via ProteomeXchange with identifier PXD004274. PMID:27644984

Comparative Ploidy Proteomics of Candida albicans Biofilms Unraveled the Role of the AHP1 Gene in the Biofilm Persistence Against Amphotericin B.

PubMed

Truong, Thuyen; Zeng, Guisheng; Qingsong, Lin; Kwang, Lim Teck; Tong, Cao; Chan, Fong Yee; Wang, Yue; Seneviratne, Chaminda Jayampath

2016-11-01

Candida albicans is a major fungal pathogen causing lethal infections in immunocompromised patients. C. albicans forms antifungal tolerant biofilms contributing significantly to therapeutic failure. The recently established haploid C. albicans biofilm model provides a new toolbox to uncover the mechanism governing the higher antifungal tolerance of biofilms. Here, we comprehensively examined the proteomics and antifungal susceptibility of standard diploid (SC5314 and BWP17) and stable haploid (GZY792 and GZY803) strains of C. albicans biofilms. Subsequent downstream analyses identified alkyl hydroperoxide reductase 1 (AHP1) as a critical determinant of C. albicans biofilm's tolerance of amphotericin B. At 32 μg/ml of amphotericin B, GZY803 haploid biofilms showed 0.1% of persister population as compared with 1% of the diploid biofilms. AHP1 expression was found to be lower in GZY803 biofilms, and AHP1 overexpression in GZY803 restored the percentage of persister population. Consistently, deleting AHP1 in the diploid strain BWP17 caused a similar increase in amphotericin B susceptibility. AHP1 expression was also positively correlated with the antioxidant potential. Furthermore, C. albicans ira2Δ/Δ biofilms were susceptible to amphotericin B and had a diminished antioxidant capacity. Interestingly, AHP1 overexpression in the ira2Δ/Δ strain restored the antioxidant potential and enhanced the persister population against amphotericin B, and shutting down the AHP1 expression in ira2Δ/Δ biofilms reversed the effect. In conclusion, we provide evidence that the AHP1 gene critically determines the amphotericin B tolerance of C. albicans biofilms possibly by maintaining the persisters' antioxidant capacity. This finding will open up new avenues for developing therapies targeting the persister population of C. albicans biofilms. The mass spectrometry proteomics data are available via ProteomeXchange with identifier PXD004274. © 2016 by The American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

Impact of external sources of infection on the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in modelled badger populations.

PubMed

Hardstaff, Joanne L; Bulling, Mark T; Marion, Glenn; Hutchings, Michael R; White, Piran C L

2012-06-27

The persistence of bovine TB (bTB) in various countries throughout the world is enhanced by the existence of wildlife hosts for the infection. In Britain and Ireland, the principal wildlife host for bTB is the badger (Meles meles). The objective of our study was to examine the dynamics of bTB in badgers in relation to both badger-derived infection from within the population and externally-derived, trickle-type, infection, such as could occur from other species or environmental sources, using a spatial stochastic simulation model. The presence of external sources of infection can increase mean prevalence and reduce the threshold group size for disease persistence. Above the threshold equilibrium group size of 6-8 individuals predicted by the model for bTB persistence in badgers based on internal infection alone, external sources of infection have relatively little impact on the persistence or level of disease. However, within a critical range of group sizes just below this threshold level, external infection becomes much more important in determining disease dynamics. Within this critical range, external infection increases the ratio of intra- to inter-group infections due to the greater probability of external infections entering fully-susceptible groups. The effect is to enable bTB persistence and increase bTB prevalence in badger populations which would not be able to maintain bTB based on internal infection alone. External sources of bTB infection can contribute to the persistence of bTB in badger populations. In high-density badger populations, internal badger-derived infections occur at a sufficient rate that the additional effect of external sources in exacerbating disease is minimal. However, in lower-density populations, external sources of infection are much more important in enhancing bTB prevalence and persistence. In such circumstances, it is particularly important that control strategies to reduce bTB in badgers include efforts to minimise such external sources of infection.

Impact of external sources of infection on the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in modelled badger populations

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The persistence of bovine TB (bTB) in various countries throughout the world is enhanced by the existence of wildlife hosts for the infection. In Britain and Ireland, the principal wildlife host for bTB is the badger (Meles meles). The objective of our study was to examine the dynamics of bTB in badgers in relation to both badger-derived infection from within the population and externally-derived, trickle-type, infection, such as could occur from other species or environmental sources, using a spatial stochastic simulation model. Results The presence of external sources of infection can increase mean prevalence and reduce the threshold group size for disease persistence. Above the threshold equilibrium group size of 6–8 individuals predicted by the model for bTB persistence in badgers based on internal infection alone, external sources of infection have relatively little impact on the persistence or level of disease. However, within a critical range of group sizes just below this threshold level, external infection becomes much more important in determining disease dynamics. Within this critical range, external infection increases the ratio of intra- to inter-group infections due to the greater probability of external infections entering fully-susceptible groups. The effect is to enable bTB persistence and increase bTB prevalence in badger populations which would not be able to maintain bTB based on internal infection alone. Conclusions External sources of bTB infection can contribute to the persistence of bTB in badger populations. In high-density badger populations, internal badger-derived infections occur at a sufficient rate that the additional effect of external sources in exacerbating disease is minimal. However, in lower-density populations, external sources of infection are much more important in enhancing bTB prevalence and persistence. In such circumstances, it is particularly important that control strategies to reduce bTB in badgers include efforts to minimise such external sources of infection. PMID:22738118

The critical domain size of stochastic population models.

PubMed

Reimer, Jody R; Bonsall, Michael B; Maini, Philip K

2017-02-01

Identifying the critical domain size necessary for a population to persist is an important question in ecology. Both demographic and environmental stochasticity impact a population's ability to persist. Here we explore ways of including this variability. We study populations with distinct dispersal and sedentary stages, which have traditionally been modelled using a deterministic integrodifference equation (IDE) framework. Individual-based models (IBMs) are the most intuitive stochastic analogues to IDEs but yield few analytic insights. We explore two alternate approaches; one is a scaling up to the population level using the Central Limit Theorem, and the other a variation on both Galton-Watson branching processes and branching processes in random environments. These branching process models closely approximate the IBM and yield insight into the factors determining the critical domain size for a given population subject to stochasticity.

Obg and Membrane Depolarization Are Part of a Microbial Bet-Hedging Strategy that Leads to Antibiotic Tolerance.

PubMed

Verstraeten, Natalie; Knapen, Wouter Joris; Kint, Cyrielle Ines; Liebens, Veerle; Van den Bergh, Bram; Dewachter, Liselot; Michiels, Joran Elie; Fu, Qiang; David, Charlotte Claudia; Fierro, Ana Carolina; Marchal, Kathleen; Beirlant, Jan; Versées, Wim; Hofkens, Johan; Jansen, Maarten; Fauvart, Maarten; Michiels, Jan

2015-07-02

Within bacterial populations, a small fraction of persister cells is transiently capable of surviving exposure to lethal doses of antibiotics. As a bet-hedging strategy, persistence levels are determined both by stochastic induction and by environmental stimuli called responsive diversification. Little is known about the mechanisms that link the low frequency of persisters to environmental signals. Our results support a central role for the conserved GTPase Obg in determining persistence in Escherichia coli in response to nutrient starvation. Obg-mediated persistence requires the stringent response alarmone (p)ppGpp and proceeds through transcriptional control of the hokB-sokB type I toxin-antitoxin module. In individual cells, increased Obg levels induce HokB expression, which in turn results in a collapse of the membrane potential, leading to dormancy. Obg also controls persistence in Pseudomonas aeruginosa and thus constitutes a conserved regulator of antibiotic tolerance. Combined, our findings signify an important step toward unraveling shared genetic mechanisms underlying persistence. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The seed bank longevity index revisited: limited reliability evident from a burial experiment and database analyses.

PubMed

Saatkamp, Arne; Affre, Laurence; Dutoit, Thierry; Poschlod, Peter

2009-09-01

Seed survival in the soil contributes to population persistence and community diversity, creating a need for reliable measures of soil seed bank persistence. Several methods estimate soil seed bank persistence, most of which count seedlings emerging from soil samples. Seasonality, depth distribution and presence (or absence) in vegetation are then used to classify a species' soil seed bank into persistent or transient, often synthesized into a longevity index. This study aims to determine if counts of seedlings from soil samples yield reliable seed bank persistence estimates and if this is correlated to seed production. Seeds of 38 annual weeds taken from arable fields were buried in the field and their viability tested by germination and tetrazolium tests at 6 month intervals for 2.5 years. This direct measure of soil seed survival was compared with indirect estimates from the literature, which use seedling emergence from soil samples to determine seed bank persistence. Published databases were used to explore the generality of the influence of reproductive capacity on seed bank persistence estimates from seedling emergence data. There was no relationship between a species' soil seed survival in the burial experiment and its seed bank persistence estimate from published data using seedling emergence from soil samples. The analysis of complementary data from published databases revealed that while seed bank persistence estimates based on seedling emergence from soil samples are generally correlated with seed production, estimates of seed banks from burial experiments are not. The results can be explained in terms of the seed size-seed number trade-off, which suggests that the higher number of smaller seeds is compensated after germination. Soil seed bank persistence estimates correlated to seed production are therefore not useful for studies on population persistence or community diversity. Confusion of soil seed survival and seed production can be avoided by separate use of soil seed abundance and experimental soil seed survival.

Consequences of the Allee effect and intraspecific competition on population persistence under adverse environmental conditions.

PubMed

Petrovskii, Sergei; Blackshaw, Rod; Li, Bai-Lian

2008-02-01

The impact of intraspecific interactions on ecological stability and population persistence in terms of steady state(s) existence is considered theoretically based on a general competition model. We compare persistence of a structured population consisting of a few interacting (competitive) subpopulations, or groups, to persistence of the corresponding unstructured population. For a general case, we show that if the intra-group competition is stronger than the inter-group competition, then the structured population is less prone to extinction, i.e. it can persist in a parameter range where the unstructured population goes extinct. For a more specific case of a population with hierarchical competition, we show that relative viability of structured and unstructured populations depend on the type of density dependence in the population growth. Namely, while in the case of logistic growth, structured and unstructured populations exhibit equivalent persistence; in the case of Allee dynamics, the persistence of a hierarchically structured population is shown to be higher. We then apply these results to the case of behaviourally structured populations and demonstrate that an extreme form of individual aggression can be beneficial at the population level and enhance population persistence.

Continent-wide panmixia of an African fruit bat facilitates transmission of potentially zoonotic viruses.

PubMed

Peel, Alison J; Sargan, David R; Baker, Kate S; Hayman, David T S; Barr, Jennifer A; Crameri, Gary; Suu-Ire, Richard; Broder, Christopher C; Lembo, Tiziana; Wang, Lin-Fa; Fooks, Anthony R; Rossiter, Stephen J; Wood, James L N; Cunningham, Andrew A

2013-01-01

The straw-coloured fruit bat, Eidolon helvum, is Africa's most widely distributed and commonly hunted fruit bat, often living in close proximity to human populations. This species has been identified as a reservoir of potentially zoonotic viruses, but uncertainties remain regarding viral transmission dynamics and mechanisms of persistence. Here we combine genetic and serological analyses of populations across Africa, to determine the extent of epidemiological connectivity among E. helvum populations. Multiple markers reveal panmixia across the continental range, at a greater geographical scale than previously recorded for any other mammal, whereas populations on remote islands were genetically distinct. Multiple serological assays reveal antibodies to henipaviruses and Lagos bat virus in all locations, including small isolated island populations, indicating that factors other than population size and connectivity may be responsible for viral persistence. Our findings have potentially important public health implications, and highlight a need to avoid disturbances that may precipitate viral spillover.

Future directions in EAB-affected forests

Treesearch

Deborah G. McCullough; Roy Van Driesche; Therese M. Poland

2015-01-01

The ability of natural enemies to slow emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), population growth in a given area will play a major role in determining whether many native ash species can persist as functional components of forest ecosystems. Population growth of EAB, like that of any other organism, is...

Prevalence and Predictors of Persistent Speech Sound Disorder at Eight Years Old: Findings from a Population Cohort Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wren, Yvonne; Miller, Laura L.; Peters, Tim J.; Emond, Alan; Roulstone, Sue

2016-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine prevalence and predictors of persistent speech sound disorder (SSD) in children aged 8 years after disregarding children presenting solely with common clinical distortions (i.e., residual errors). Method: Data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (Boyd et al., 2012) were used.…

Elementary School Children with Persistent Emotional Disturbances: A Summary Report of a Study in Onondaga County, N.Y.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

New York State Dept. of Mental Hygiene, Albany.

Each of 7,056 children (3,607 boys and 3,449 girls) attending regular elementary school classes were rated by their fourth grade teacher and again by their sixth grade teacher to determine the prevalence of persistent emotional disturbances within the student population of 17 public school districts. Based on teachers' ratings of the student's…

Temperature and population density determine reservoir regions of seasonal persistence in highland malaria.

PubMed

Siraj, Amir S; Bouma, Menno J; Santos-Vega, Mauricio; Yeshiwondim, Asnakew K; Rothman, Dale S; Yadeta, Damtew; Sutton, Paul C; Pascual, Mercedes

2015-12-07

A better understanding of malaria persistence in highly seasonal environments such as highlands and desert fringes requires identifying the factors behind the spatial reservoir of the pathogen in the low season. In these 'unstable' malaria regions, such reservoirs play a critical role by allowing persistence during the low transmission season and therefore, between seasonal outbreaks. In the highlands of East Africa, the most populated epidemic regions in Africa, temperature is expected to be intimately connected to where in space the disease is able to persist because of pronounced altitudinal gradients. Here, we explore other environmental and demographic factors that may contribute to malaria's highland reservoir. We use an extensive spatio-temporal dataset of confirmed monthly Plasmodium falciparum cases from 1995 to 2005 that finely resolves space in an Ethiopian highland. With a Bayesian approach for parameter estimation and a generalized linear mixed model that includes a spatially structured random effect, we demonstrate that population density is important to disease persistence during the low transmission season. This population effect is not accounted for in typical models for the transmission dynamics of the disease, but is consistent in part with a more complex functional form of the force of infection proposed by theory for vector-borne infections, only during the low season as we discuss. As malaria risk usually decreases in more urban environments with increased human densities, the opposite counterintuitive finding identifies novel control targets during the low transmission season in African highlands. © 2015 The Author(s).

Temperature and population density determine reservoir regions of seasonal persistence in highland malaria

PubMed Central

Siraj, Amir S.; Bouma, Menno J.; Santos-Vega, Mauricio; Yeshiwondim, Asnakew K.; Rothman, Dale S.; Yadeta, Damtew; Sutton, Paul C.; Pascual, Mercedes

2015-01-01

A better understanding of malaria persistence in highly seasonal environments such as highlands and desert fringes requires identifying the factors behind the spatial reservoir of the pathogen in the low season. In these ‘unstable’ malaria regions, such reservoirs play a critical role by allowing persistence during the low transmission season and therefore, between seasonal outbreaks. In the highlands of East Africa, the most populated epidemic regions in Africa, temperature is expected to be intimately connected to where in space the disease is able to persist because of pronounced altitudinal gradients. Here, we explore other environmental and demographic factors that may contribute to malaria's highland reservoir. We use an extensive spatio-temporal dataset of confirmed monthly Plasmodium falciparum cases from 1995 to 2005 that finely resolves space in an Ethiopian highland. With a Bayesian approach for parameter estimation and a generalized linear mixed model that includes a spatially structured random effect, we demonstrate that population density is important to disease persistence during the low transmission season. This population effect is not accounted for in typical models for the transmission dynamics of the disease, but is consistent in part with a more complex functional form of the force of infection proposed by theory for vector-borne infections, only during the low season as we discuss. As malaria risk usually decreases in more urban environments with increased human densities, the opposite counterintuitive finding identifies novel control targets during the low transmission season in African highlands. PMID:26631558

Environmental controls on spatial patterns in the long-term persistence of giant kelp in central California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Young, Mary Alida; Cavanaugh, Kyle C.; Bell, Tom W.; Raimondi, Peter T.; Edwards, Christopher A.; Drake, Patrick T.; Erikson, Li H.; Storlazzi, Curt

2016-01-01

As marine management is moving towards the practice of protecting static areas, it is 44 important to make sure protected areas capture and protect persistent populations. Rocky reefs in 45 many temperate areas worldwide serve as habitat for canopy forming macroalgae and these 46 structure forming species of kelps (order Laminariales) often serve as important habitat for a great 47 diversity of species. Macrocystis pyrifera is the most common canopy forming kelp species found 48 along the coast of California but the distribution and abundance of M. pyrifera varies in space and 49 time. The purpose of this study is to determine what environmental parameters are correlated with 50 the spatial and temporal persistence of M. pyrifera along the central coast of California and how 51 well those environmental parameters can be used to predict areas where M. pyrifera is more likely 52 to persist. Nine environmental variables considered in this study included depth of the seafloor, 53 structure of the rocky reef, proportion of rocky reef, size of kelp patch, biomass of kelp within a 54 patch, distance from the edge of a kelp patch, sea surface temperature, wave orbital velocities, and 55 population connectivity of individual kelp patches. Using a generalized linear mixed effects model 56 (GLMM), the persistence of M. pyrifera was significantly associated with seven of the nine 57 variables considered: depth, complexity of the rocky reef, proportion of rock, patch biomass, 58 distance from the edge of a patch, population connectivity, and wave-orbital velocities. These 59 seven environmental variables were then used to predict the persistence of kelp across the central 60 coast and these predictions were compared to a reserved dataset of M. pyrifera persistence, which 61 was not used in the creation of the GLMM. The environmental variables were shown to accurately 62 predict the persistence of M. pyrifera within the central coast of California (r = 0.71, P<0.001). 63 Because persistence of giant kelp is important to the community structure of kelp forests, 64 understanding those factors that support persistent populations of M. pyrifera will enable more 65 effective management of these ecosystems.

Lactase persistence and dairy intake in Mapuche and Mestizo populations from southern Chile.

PubMed

Fernández, Catalina I; Flores, Sergio V

2014-11-01

Lactase persistence (LP) occurs at a very low frequency in indigenous populations from Latin America, offering an opportunity to understand the relationship between this genetic trait and patterns of dairy consumption. Here, the frequency of LP is analyzed from Mapuche and -an adjacent- mestizo population inhabiting the Araucanía region. In addition to genotyping for LP, participants were surveyed in relation to general perception and consumption habits of dairy products. Low LP frequency (10%) and very low dairy intake was found among the Mapuche population as compared with Mestizo populations inhabiting Chile. The survey reported that the main reasons for avoidance of dairy were the gastrointestinal symptoms after dairy intake and cultural dietary habits. The interaction between low LP genotype frequency, low dairy intake, and sociocultural determinants is here discussed in the light of their potential health outcomes. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Source-sink dynamics sustain central stonerollers (Campostoma anomalum) in a heavily urbanized catchment

Treesearch

Eric R. Waits; Mark J. Bagley; Michael J. Blum; Frank H. McCormick; James M. Lazorchak

2008-01-01

Relating local demographic processes to spatial structure (e.g. habitat heterogeneity) is essential for understanding population and species persistence (Hanski & Gilpin, 1997; Fagan, 2002). Yet few studies have tested general hypotheses about the importance of spatial patterns in determining population dynamics within river­stream networks (Lowe, Likens &...

Effects of constant immigration on the dynamics and persistence of stable and unstable Drosophila populations

PubMed Central

Dey, Snigdhadip; Joshi, Amitabh

2013-01-01

Constant immigration can stabilize population size fluctuations but its effects on extinction remain unexplored. We show that constant immigration significantly reduced extinction in fruitfly populations with relatively stable or unstable dynamics. In unstable populations with oscillations of amplitude around 1.5 times the mean population size, persistence and constancy were unrelated. Low immigration enhanced persistence without affecting constancy whereas high immigration increased constancy without enhancing persistence. In relatively stable populations with erratic fluctuations of amplitude close to the mean population size, both low and high immigration enhanced persistence. In these populations, the amplitude of fluctuations relative to mean population size went down due to immigration, and their dynamics were altered to low-period cycles. The effects of immigration on the population size distribution and intrinsic dynamics of stable versus unstable populations differed considerably, suggesting that the mechanisms by which immigration reduced extinction risk depended on underlying dynamics in complex ways. PMID:23470546

Monitoring of African swine fever in the wild boar population of the most recent endemic area of Spain.

PubMed

Mur, L; Boadella, M; Martínez-López, B; Gallardo, C; Gortazar, C; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J M

2012-12-01

Wild boars are natural hosts for African swine fever (ASF). The ASF virus (ASFV) can persist for long periods in the environment, such as in ticks and contaminated products, which may be sources of infection for wild boar populations. African swine fever was eradicated in domestic pig populations in Spain in 1995, after 35 years of significant effort. To determine whether ASFV can persist in wild boar hosts after it has been eradicated from domestic pigs and to study the role of wild boar in helping ASFV persist in the environment, we checked for the presence of ASFV in wild boars in Doñana National Park, one of the largest natural habitats of wild boar in Spain and one of the last areas where ASF was endemic prior its eradication. Samples from 158 animals collected between 2006 and 2010 were analysed using serological and nucleic acid-based diagnostic techniques recommended by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE). None of the samples was found to be positive. These results confirm the absence of disease in wildlife in what was once one of the areas most affected by ASF in Spain, and they suggest that wild boars play a limited role in ASFV persistence. These results confirm that ASFV cannot persist in isolated wild boar populations for long periods of time without the interaction of other factors such as re-infection by contact with domestic pigs or by feeding on contaminated swill. © 2012 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

The 1% of the population accountable for 63% of all violent crime convictions.

PubMed

Falk, Orjan; Wallinius, Märta; Lundström, Sebastian; Frisell, Thomas; Anckarsäter, Henrik; Kerekes, Nóra

2014-04-01

Population-based studies on violent crime and background factors may provide an understanding of the relationships between susceptibility factors and crime. We aimed to determine the distribution of violent crime convictions in the Swedish population 1973-2004 and to identify criminal, academic, parental, and psychiatric risk factors for persistence in violent crime. The nationwide multi-generation register was used with many other linked nationwide registers to select participants. All individuals born in 1958-1980 (2,393,765 individuals) were included. Persistent violent offenders (those with a lifetime history of three or more violent crime convictions) were compared with individuals having one or two such convictions, and to matched non-offenders. Independent variables were gender, age of first conviction for a violent crime, nonviolent crime convictions, and diagnoses for major mental disorders, personality disorders, and substance use disorders. A total of 93,642 individuals (3.9%) had at least one violent conviction. The distribution of convictions was highly skewed; 24,342 persistent violent offenders (1.0% of the total population) accounted for 63.2% of all convictions. Persistence in violence was associated with male sex (OR 2.5), personality disorder (OR 2.3), violent crime conviction before age 19 (OR 2.0), drug-related offenses (OR 1.9), nonviolent criminality (OR 1.9), substance use disorder (OR 1.9), and major mental disorder (OR 1.3). The majority of violent crimes are perpetrated by a small number of persistent violent offenders, typically males, characterized by early onset of violent criminality, substance abuse, personality disorders, and nonviolent criminality.

Losing your edge: climate change and the conservation value of range-edge populations.

PubMed

Rehm, Evan M; Olivas, Paulo; Stroud, James; Feeley, Kenneth J

2015-10-01

Populations occurring at species' range edges can be locally adapted to unique environmental conditions. From a species' perspective, range-edge environments generally have higher severity and frequency of extreme climatic events relative to the range core. Under future climates, extreme climatic events are predicted to become increasingly important in defining species' distributions. Therefore, range-edge genotypes that are better adapted to extreme climates relative to core populations may be essential to species' persistence during periods of rapid climate change. We use relatively simple conceptual models to highlight the importance of locally adapted range-edge populations (leading and trailing edges) for determining the ability of species to persist under future climates. Using trees as an example, we show how locally adapted populations at species' range edges may expand under future climate change and become more common relative to range-core populations. We also highlight how large-scale habitat destruction occurring in some geographic areas where many species range edge converge, such as biome boundaries and ecotones (e.g., the arc of deforestation along the rainforest-cerrado ecotone in the southern Amazonia), can have major implications for global biodiversity. As climate changes, range-edge populations will play key roles in helping species to maintain or expand their geographic distributions. The loss of these locally adapted range-edge populations through anthropogenic disturbance is therefore hypothesized to reduce the ability of species to persist in the face of rapid future climate change.

Interaction of Staphylococcus aureus persister cells with the host when in a persister state and following awakening.

PubMed

Mina, Elin G; Marques, Cláudia N H

2016-08-10

Persister cells, a tolerant cell sub-population, are commonly associated with chronic and recurrent infections. However, little is known about their ability to actually initiate or establish an infection, become virulent and cause pathogenicity within a host. Here we investigated whether Staphylococcus aureus persister cells initiate an infection and are recognized by macrophages, while in a persister cell status, and upon awakening due to exposure to cis-2-decenoic acid (cis-DA). Our results show that S. aureus persister cells are not able to initiate infections in A. thaliana and present significantly reduced virulence towards C. elegans compared to total populations. In contrast, awakened S. aureus persister cells are able to initiate infections in A. thaliana and in C. elegans albeit, with lower mortality than total population. Furthermore, exposure of S. aureus persister cells to cis-DA led to a loss of tolerance to ciprofloxacin, and an increase of the bacterial fluorescence to levels found in total population. In addition, macrophage engulfment of persister cells was significantly lower than engulfment of total population, both before and following awakening. Overall our findings indicate that upon awakening of a persister population the cells regain their ability to infect hosts despite the absence of an increased immune response.

Density thresholds for Mopeia virus invasion and persistence in its host Mastomys natalensis.

PubMed

Goyens, J; Reijniers, J; Borremans, B; Leirs, H

2013-01-21

Well-established theoretical models predict host density thresholds for invasion and persistence of parasites with a density-dependent transmission. Studying such thresholds in reality, however, is not obvious because it requires long-term data for several fluctuating populations of different size. We developed a spatially explicit and individual-based SEIR model of Mopeia virus in multimammate mice Mastomys natalensis. This is an interesting model system for studying abundance thresholds because the host is the most common African rodent, populations fluctuate considerably and the virus is closely related to Lassa virus but non-pathogenic to humans so can be studied safely in the field. The simulations show that, while host density clearly is important, sharp thresholds are only to be expected for persistence (and not for invasion), since at short time-spans (as during invasion), stochasticity is determining. Besides host density, also the spatial extent of the host population is important. We observe the repeated local occurrence of herd immunity, leading to a decrease in transmission of the virus, while even a limited amount of dispersal can have a strong influence in spreading and re-igniting the transmission. The model is most sensitive to the duration of the infectious stage, the size of the home range and the transmission coefficient, so these are important factors to determine experimentally in the future. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Traumatic injuries and persistent opioid use in the USA: findings from a nationally representative survey.

PubMed

Alghnam, Suliman; Castillo, Renan

2017-04-01

Although opioid abuse is a rising epidemic in the USA, there are no studies to date on the incidence of persistent opioid use following injuries. Therefore, the aims of this study are: (1) to examine the incidence of persistent opioid use among a nationally representative sample of injured and non-injured populations; (2) to evaluate whether an injury is an independent predictor of persistent opioid use. Data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey were pooled (years 2009-2012). Adults were followed for about 2 years, during which they were surveyed about injury status and opioid use every 4-5 months. To determine whether injuries are associated with persistent opioid use, weighted multiple logistic regressions were constructed. While 2.3 million injured individuals received any opioid during the follow-up, 371 170 (15.6%) individuals became persistent opioid users (defined as opioid use across multiple time points). In a multiple logistic regression analysis adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics and self-reported health, those who sustained injuries were 1.4 times (95% CI 1.1 to 1.9) more likely to report persistent opioid use than those without injuries. We found injuries to be significantly associated with persistent opioid use in a nationally representative sample. Further investment in injury prevention may facilitate reduction of persistent opioid use and, thus, improve population health and reduce health expenditures. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Invasion and Persistence of Infectious Agents in Fragmented Host Populations

PubMed Central

Jesse, Marieke; Mazzucco, Rupert; Dieckmann, Ulf; Heesterbeek, Hans; Metz, Johan A. J.

2011-01-01

One of the important questions in understanding infectious diseases and their prevention and control is how infectious agents can invade and become endemic in a host population. A ubiquitous feature of natural populations is that they are spatially fragmented, resulting in relatively homogeneous local populations inhabiting patches connected by the migration of hosts. Such fragmented population structures are studied extensively with metapopulation models. Being able to define and calculate an indicator for the success of invasion and persistence of an infectious agent is essential for obtaining general qualitative insights into infection dynamics, for the comparison of prevention and control scenarios, and for quantitative insights into specific systems. For homogeneous populations, the basic reproduction ratio plays this role. For metapopulations, defining such an ‘invasion indicator’ is not straightforward. Some indicators have been defined for specific situations, e.g., the household reproduction number . However, these existing indicators often fail to account for host demography and especially host migration. Here we show how to calculate a more broadly applicable indicator for the invasion and persistence of infectious agents in a host metapopulation of equally connected patches, for a wide range of possible epidemiological models. A strong feature of our method is that it explicitly accounts for host demography and host migration. Using a simple compartmental system as an example, we illustrate how can be calculated and expressed in terms of the key determinants of epidemiological dynamics. PMID:21980339

A Single-Amino-Acid Change in Murine Norovirus NS1/2 Is Sufficient for Colonic Tropism and Persistence

PubMed Central

Nice, Timothy J.; Strong, David W.; McCune, Broc T.; Pohl, Calvin S.

2013-01-01

Human norovirus (HuNoV) is the major cause of acute nonbacterial gastroenteritis worldwide but has no clear animal reservoir. HuNoV can persist after the resolution of symptoms, and this persistence may be essential for viral maintenance within the population. Many strains of the related murine norovirus (MNV) also persist, providing a tractable animal model for studying norovirus (NoV) persistence. We have used recombinant cDNA clones of representative persistent (CR6) and nonpersistent (CW3) strains to identify a domain within the nonstructural gene NS1/2 that is necessary and sufficient for persistence. Furthermore, we found that a single change of aspartic acid to glutamic acid in CW3 NS1/2 was sufficient for persistence. This same conservative change also caused increased growth of CW3 in the proximal colon, which we found to be a major tissue reservoir of MNV persistence, suggesting that NS1/2 determines viral tropism that is necessary for persistence. These findings represent the first identified function for NoV NS1/2 during infection and establish a novel model system for the study of enteric viral persistence. PMID:23077309

Demography of the ecosystem engineer Crassostrea gigas, related to vertical reef accretion and reef persistence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walles, Brenda; Mann, Roger; Ysebaert, Tom; Troost, Karin; Herman, Peter M. J.; Smaal, Aad C.

2015-03-01

Marine species characterized as structure building, autogenic ecosystem engineers are recognized worldwide as potential tools for coastal adaptation efforts in the face of sea level rise. Successful employment of ecosystem engineers in coastal protection largely depends on long-term persistence of their structure, which is in turn dependent on the population dynamics of the individual species. Oysters, such as the Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas), are recognized as ecosystem engineers with potential for use in coastal protection. Persistence of oyster reefs is strongly determined by recruitment and shell production (growth), processes facilitated by gregarious settlement on extant shell substrate. Although the Pacific oyster has been introduced world-wide, and has formed dense reefs in the receiving coastal waters, the population biology of live oysters and the quantitative mechanisms maintaining these reefs has rarely been studied, hence the aim of the present work. This study had two objectives: (1) to describe the demographics of extant C. gigas reefs, and (2) to estimate vertical reef accretion rates and carbonate production in these oyster reefs. Three long-living oyster reefs (>30 years old), which have not been exploited since their first occurrence, were examined in the Oosterschelde estuary in the Netherlands. A positive reef accretion rate (7.0-16.9 mm year-1 shell material) was observed, consistent with self-maintenance and persistent structure. We provide a framework to predict reef accretion and population persistence under varying recruitment, growth and mortality scenarios.

Divergence in sink contributions to population persistence

EPA Science Inventory

Population sinks present unique conservation challenges. The loss of animals in sinks can compromise persistence. Conversely, sinks can bolster population sizes, improving viability. To assess the contribution of sinks to regional persistence, we simulated the removal of sink hab...

Connectivity, passability and heterogeneity interact to determine fish population persistence in river networks

PubMed Central

Samia, Yasmine; Lutscher, Frithjof; Hastings, Alan

2015-01-01

The movement of fish in watersheds is frequently inhibited by human-made migration barriers such as dams or culverts. The resulting lack of connectivity of spatial subpopulations is often cited as a cause for observed population decline. We formulate a matrix model for a spatially distributed fish population in a watershed, and we investigate how location and other characteristics of a single movement barrier impact the asymptotic growth rate of the population. We find that while population growth rate often decreases with the introduction of a movement obstacle, it may also increase due to a ‘retention effect’. Furthermore, obstacle mortality greatly affects population growth rate. In practice, different connectivity indices are used to predict population effects of migration barriers, but the relation of these indices to population growth rates in demographic models is often unclear. When comparing our results with the dentritic connectivity index, we see that the index captures neither the retention effect nor the influences of obstacle mortality. We argue that structural indices cannot entirely replace more detailed demographic models to understand questions of persistence and extinction. We advocate the development of novel functional indices and characteristics. PMID:26311313

Connectivity, passability and heterogeneity interact to determine fish population persistence in river networks.

PubMed

Samia, Yasmine; Lutscher, Frithjof; Hastings, Alan

2015-09-06

The movement of fish in watersheds is frequently inhibited by human-made migration barriers such as dams or culverts. The resulting lack of connectivity of spatial subpopulations is often cited as a cause for observed population decline. We formulate a matrix model for a spatially distributed fish population in a watershed, and we investigate how location and other characteristics of a single movement barrier impact the asymptotic growth rate of the population. We find that while population growth rate often decreases with the introduction of a movement obstacle, it may also increase due to a 'retention effect'. Furthermore, obstacle mortality greatly affects population growth rate. In practice, different connectivity indices are used to predict population effects of migration barriers, but the relation of these indices to population growth rates in demographic models is often unclear. When comparing our results with the dentritic connectivity index, we see that the index captures neither the retention effect nor the influences of obstacle mortality. We argue that structural indices cannot entirely replace more detailed demographic models to understand questions of persistence and extinction. We advocate the development of novel functional indices and characteristics. © 2015 The Author(s).

The anatomy of a (potential) disaster: Volcanoes, behavior, and population viability of the short-tailed albatross (Phoebastria albatrus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Finkelstein, M.E.; Wolf, S.; Goldman, M.; Doak, D.F.; Sievert, P.R.; Balogh, G.; Hasegawa, H.

2010-01-01

Catastrophic events, either from natural (e.g., hurricane) or human-induced (e.g., forest clear-cut) processes, are a well-known threat to wild populations. However, our lack of knowledge about population-level effects of catastrophic events has inhibited the careful examination of how catastrophes affect population growth and persistence. For the critically endangered short-tailed albatross (Phoebastria albatrus), episodic volcanic eruptions are considered a serious catastrophic threat since approximately 80% of the global population of ???2500 birds (in 2006) currently breeds on an active volcano, Torishima Island. We evaluated how short-tailed albatross population persistence is affected by the catastrophic threat of a volcanic eruption relative to chronic threats. We also provide an example for overcoming the seemingly overwhelming problems created by modelling the population dynamics of a species with limited demographic data by incorporating uncertainty in our analysis. As such, we constructed a stochastic age-based matrix model that incorporated both catastrophic mortality due to volcanic eruptions and chronic mortality from several potential sources (e.g., contaminant exposure, fisheries bycatch) to determine the relative effects of these two types of threats on short-tailed albatross population growth and persistence. Modest increases (1%) in chronic (annual) mortality had a 2.5-fold greater effect on predicted short-tailed albatross stochastic population growth rate (lambda) than did the occurrence of periodic volcanic eruptions that follow historic eruption frequencies (annual probability of eruption 2.2%). Our work demonstrates that periodic catastrophic volcanic eruptions, despite their dramatic nature, are less likely to affect the population viability and recovery of short-tailed albatross than low-level chronic mortality. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

Persistence of Rift Valley fever virus in East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gachohi, J.; Hansen, F.; Bett, B.; Kitala, P.

2012-04-01

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFv) is a mosquito-borne pathogen of livestock, wildlife and humans that causes severe outbreaks in intervals of several years. One of the open questions is how the virus persists between outbreaks. We developed a spatially-explicit, individual-based simulation model of the RVFv transmission dynamics to investigate this question. The model, is based on livestock and mosquito population dynamics. Spatial aspects are explicitly represented by a set of grid cells that represent mosquito breeding sites. A grid cell measures 500 by 500m and the model considers a grid of 100 by 100 grid cells; the model thus operates on the regional scale of 2500km2. Livestock herds move between grid cells, and provide connectivity between the cells. The model is used to explore the spatio-temporal dynamics of RVFv persistence in absence of a wildlife reservoir in an east African semi-arid context. Specifically, the model assesses the importance of local virus persistence in mosquito breeding sites relative to global virus persistence mitigated by movement of hosts. Local persistence is determined by the length of time the virus remains in a mosquito breeding site once introduced. In the model, this is a function of the number of mosquitoes that emerge infected and their lifespan. Global persistence is determined by the level of connectivity between isolated grid cells. Our work gives insights into the ecological and epidemiological conditions under which RVFv persists. The implication for disease surveillance and management are discussed.

High population variability and source-sink dynamics in a solitary bee species.

PubMed

Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

2013-06-01

Although solitary bees are considered to play key roles in ecosystem functions, surprisingly few studies have explored their population dynamics. We investigated the population dynamics of a rare, declining, solitary bee (Andrena humilis) in a landscape of 80 km2 in southern Sweden from 2003 to 2011. Only one population was persistent throughout all years studied; most likely this population supplied the surrounding landscape with 11 smaller, temporary local populations. Despite stable pollen availability, the size of the persistent population fluctuated dramatically in a two-year cycle over the nine years, with 490-1230 nests in odd-numbered years and 21-48 nests in even-numbered years. These fluctuations were not significantly related to climatic variables or pollen availability. Nineteen colonization and 14 extinction events were recorded. Occupancy decreased with distance from the persistent population and increased with increasing resource (pollen) availability. There were significant positive correlations between the size of the persistent population and patch occupancy and colonization. Colonizations were generally more common in patches closer to the persistent population, whereas extinctions were independent of distance from the persistent population. Our results highlight the complex population dynamics that exist for this solitary bee species, which could be due to source-sink dynamics, a prolonged diapause, or can represent a bet-hedging strategy to avoid natural enemies and survive in small habitat patches. If large fluctuations in solitary bee populations prove to be widespread, it will have important implications for interpreting ecological relationships, bee conservation, and pollination.

Eco-evolutionary effects on population recovery following catastrophic disturbance

PubMed Central

Weese, Dylan J; Schwartz, Amy K; Bentzen, Paul; Hendry, Andrew P; Kinnison, Michael T

2011-01-01

Fine-scale genetic diversity and contemporary evolution can theoretically influence ecological dynamics in the wild. Such eco-evolutionary effects might be particularly relevant to the persistence of populations facing acute or chronic environmental change. However, experimental data on wild populations is currently lacking to support this notion. One way that ongoing evolution might influence the dynamics of threatened populations is through the role that selection plays in mediating the ‘rescue effect’, the ability of migrants to contribute to the recovery of populations facing local disturbance and decline. Here, we combine experiments with natural catastrophic events to show that ongoing evolution is a major determinant of migrant contributions to population recovery in Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata). These eco-evolutionary limits on migrant contributions appear to be mediated by the reinforcing effects of natural and sexual selection against migrants, despite the close geographic proximity of migrant sources. These findings show that ongoing adaptive evolution can be a double-edged sword for population persistence, maintaining local fitness at a cost to demographic risk. Our study further serves as a potent reminder that significant evolutionary and eco-evolutionary dynamics might be at play even where the phenotypic status quo is largely maintained generation to generation. PMID:25567978

The influence of agroforestry and other land-use types on the persistence of a Sumatran tiger (Panthera tigris sumatrae) population: an individual-based model approach.

PubMed

Imron, Muhammad Ali; Herzog, Sven; Berger, Uta

2011-08-01

The importance of preserving both protected areas and their surrounding landscapes as one of the major conservation strategies for tigers has received attention over recent decades. However, the mechanism of how land-use surrounding protected areas affects the dynamics of tiger populations is poorly understood. We developed Panthera Population Persistence (PPP)--an individual-based model--to investigate the potential mechanism of the Sumatran tiger population dynamics in a protected area and under different land-use scenarios surrounding the reserve. We tested three main landscape compositions (single, combined and real land-uses of Tesso-Nilo National Park and its surrounding area) on the probability of and time to extinction of the Sumatran tiger over 20 years in Central Sumatra. The model successfully explains the mechanisms behind the population response of tigers under different habitat landscape compositions. Feeding and mating behaviours of tigers are key factors, which determined population persistence in a heterogeneous landscape. All single land-use scenarios resulted in tiger extinction but had a different probability of extinction within 20 years. If tropical forest was combined with other land-use types, the probability of extinction was smaller. The presence of agroforesty and logging concessions adjacent to protected areas encouraged the survival of tiger populations. However, with the real land-use scenario of Tesso-Nilo National Park, tigers could not survive for more than 10 years. Promoting the practice of agroforestry systems surrounding the park is probably the most reasonable way to steer land-use surrounding the Tesso-Nilo National Park to support tiger conservation.

Hydrologically driven ecosystem processes determine the distribution and persistence of ecosystem-specialist predators under climate change.

PubMed

Carroll, Matthew J; Heinemeyer, Andreas; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Dennis, Peter; West, Chris; Holden, Joseph; Wallage, Zoe E; Thomas, Chris D

2015-07-31

Climate change has the capacity to alter physical and biological ecosystem processes, jeopardizing the survival of associated species. This is a particular concern in cool, wet northern peatlands that could experience warmer, drier conditions. Here we show that climate, ecosystem processes and food chains combine to influence the population performance of species in British blanket bogs. Our peatland process model accurately predicts water-table depth, which predicts abundance of craneflies (keystone invertebrates), which in turn predicts observed abundances and population persistence of three ecosystem-specialist bird species that feed on craneflies during the breeding season. Climate change projections suggest that falling water tables could cause 56-81% declines in cranefly abundance and, hence, 15-51% reductions in the abundances of these birds by 2051-2080. We conclude that physical (precipitation, temperature and topography), biophysical (evapotranspiration and desiccation of invertebrates) and ecological (food chains) processes combine to determine the distributions and survival of ecosystem-specialist predators.

Hydrologically driven ecosystem processes determine the distribution and persistence of ecosystem-specialist predators under climate change

PubMed Central

Carroll, Matthew J.; Heinemeyer, Andreas; Pearce-Higgins, James W.; Dennis, Peter; West, Chris; Holden, Joseph; Wallage, Zoe E.; Thomas, Chris D.

2015-01-01

Climate change has the capacity to alter physical and biological ecosystem processes, jeopardizing the survival of associated species. This is a particular concern in cool, wet northern peatlands that could experience warmer, drier conditions. Here we show that climate, ecosystem processes and food chains combine to influence the population performance of species in British blanket bogs. Our peatland process model accurately predicts water-table depth, which predicts abundance of craneflies (keystone invertebrates), which in turn predicts observed abundances and population persistence of three ecosystem-specialist bird species that feed on craneflies during the breeding season. Climate change projections suggest that falling water tables could cause 56–81% declines in cranefly abundance and, hence, 15–51% reductions in the abundances of these birds by 2051–2080. We conclude that physical (precipitation, temperature and topography), biophysical (evapotranspiration and desiccation of invertebrates) and ecological (food chains) processes combine to determine the distributions and survival of ecosystem-specialist predators. PMID:26227623

The differential effects of increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme events on coral populations.

PubMed

Fabina, Nicholas S; Baskett, Marissa L; Gross, Kevin

2015-09-01

Extreme events, which have profound ecological consequences, are changing in both frequency and magnitude with climate change. Because extreme temperatures induce coral bleaching, we can explore the relative impacts of changes in frequency and magnitude of high temperature events on coral reefs. Here, we combined climate projections and a dynamic population model to determine how changing bleaching regimes influence coral persistence. We additionally explored how coral traits and competition with macroalgae mediate changes in bleaching regimes. Our results predict that severe bleaching events reduce coral persistence more than frequent bleaching. Corals with low adult mortality and high growth rates are successful when bleaching is mild, but bleaching resistance is necessary to persist when bleaching is severe, regardless of frequency. The existence of macroalgae-dominated stable states reduces coral persistence and changes the relative importance of coral traits. Building on previous studies, our results predict that management efforts may need to prioritize protection of "weaker" corals with high adult mortality when bleaching is mild, and protection of "stronger" corals with high bleaching resistance when bleaching is severe. In summary, future reef projections and conservation targets depend on both local bleaching regimes and biodiversity.

Emergence of Persistent Infection due to Heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agrawal, Vidit; Moitra, Promit; Sinha, Sudeshna

2017-02-01

We explore the emergence of persistent infection in a closed region where the disease progression of the individuals is given by the SIRS model, with an individual becoming infected on contact with another infected individual. We investigate the persistence of contagion qualitatively and quantitatively, under increasing heterogeneity in the partitioning of the population into different disease compartments, as well as increasing heterogeneity in the phases of the disease among individuals within a compartment. We observe that when the initial population is uniform, consisting of individuals at the same stage of disease progression, infection arising from a contagious seed does not persist. However when the initial population consists of randomly distributed refractory and susceptible individuals, a single source of infection can lead to sustained infection in the population, as heterogeneity facilitates the de-synchronization of the phases in the disease cycle of the individuals. We also show how the average size of the window of persistence of infection depends on the degree of heterogeneity in the initial composition of the population. In particular, we show that the infection eventually dies out when the entire initial population is susceptible, while even a few susceptibles among an heterogeneous refractory population gives rise to a large persistent infected set.

Integrating Survey and Molecular Approaches to Better Understand Wildlife Disease Ecology

PubMed Central

Cowled, Brendan D.; Ward, Michael P.; Laffan, Shawn W.; Galea, Francesca; Garner, M. Graeme; MacDonald, Anna J.; Marsh, Ian; Muellner, Petra; Negus, Katherine; Quasim, Sumaiya; Woolnough, Andrew P.; Sarre, Stephen D.

2012-01-01

Infectious wildlife diseases have enormous global impacts, leading to human pandemics, global biodiversity declines and socio-economic hardship. Understanding how infection persists and is transmitted in wildlife is critical for managing diseases, but our understanding is limited. Our study aim was to better understand how infectious disease persists in wildlife populations by integrating genetics, ecology and epidemiology approaches. Specifically, we aimed to determine whether environmental or host factors were stronger drivers of Salmonella persistence or transmission within a remote and isolated wild pig (Sus scrofa) population. We determined the Salmonella infection status of wild pigs. Salmonella isolates were genotyped and a range of data was collected on putative risk factors for Salmonella transmission. We a priori identified several plausible biological hypotheses for Salmonella prevalence (cross sectional study design) versus transmission (molecular case series study design) and fit the data to these models. There were 543 wild pig Salmonella observations, sampled at 93 unique locations. Salmonella prevalence was 41% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 37–45%). The median Salmonella DICE coefficient (or Salmonella genetic similarity) was 52% (interquartile range [IQR]: 42–62%). Using the traditional cross sectional prevalence study design, the only supported model was based on the hypothesis that abundance of available ecological resources determines Salmonella prevalence in wild pigs. In the molecular study design, spatial proximity and herd membership as well as some individual risk factors (sex, condition score and relative density) determined transmission between pigs. Traditional cross sectional surveys and molecular epidemiological approaches are complementary and together can enhance understanding of disease ecology: abundance of ecological resources critical for wildlife influences Salmonella prevalence, whereas Salmonella transmission is driven by local spatial, social, density and individual factors, rather than resources. This enhanced understanding has implications for the control of diseases in wildlife populations. Attempts to manage wildlife disease using simplistic density approaches do not acknowledge the complexity of disease ecology. PMID:23071552

Biannual birth pulses allow filoviruses to persist in bat populations

PubMed Central

Hayman, David T. S.

2015-01-01

Filoviruses Ebolavirus (EBOV) and Marburgvirus (MARV) cause haemorrhagic fevers with high mortality rates, posing significant threats to public health. To understand transmission into human populations, filovirus dynamics within reservoir host populations must be understood. Studies have directly linked filoviruses to bats, but the mechanisms allowing viral persistence within bat populations are poorly understood. Theory suggests seasonal birthing may decrease the probability of pathogen persistence within populations, but data suggest MARV may persist within colonies of seasonally breeding Egyptian fruit bats, Rousettus aegyptiacus. I synthesize available filovirus and bat data in a stochastic compartmental model to explore fundamental questions relating to filovirus ecology: can filoviruses persist within isolated bat colonies; do critical community sizes exist; and how do host–pathogen relationships affect spillover transmission potential? Synchronous annual breeding and shorter incubation periods did not allow filovirus persistence, whereas bi-annual breeding and longer incubation periods, such as reported for Egyptian fruit bats and EBOV in experimental studies, allowed persistence in colony sizes often found in nature. Serological data support the findings, with bats from species with two annual birth pulses more likely to be seropositive (odds ratio (OR) 4.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.5–8.7) than those with one, suggesting that biannual birthing is necessary for filovirus persistence. PMID:25673678

Several Different Lactase Persistence Associated Alleles and High Diversity of the Lactase Gene in the Admixed Brazilian Population

PubMed Central

Friedrich, Deise C.; Santos, Sidney E. B.; Ribeiro-dos-Santos, Ândrea K. C.; Hutz, Mara H.

2012-01-01

Adult-type hypolactasia is a common phenotype caused by the lactase enzyme deficiency. The −13910 C>T polymorphism, located 14 Kb upstream of the lactase gene (LCT) in the MCM6 gene was associated with lactase persistence (LP) in Europeans. This polymorphism is rare in Africa but several other variants associated with lactase persistence were observed in Africans. The aims of this study were to identify polymorphisms in the MCM6 region associated with the lactase persistence phenotype and to determine the distribution of LCT gene haplotypes in 981 individuals from North, Northeast and South Brazil. These polymorphisms were genotyped by PCR based methods and sequencing. The −13779*C,−13910*T, −13937*A, −14010*C, −14011*T LP alleles previously described in the MCM6 gene region that acts as an enhancer for the LCT gene were identified in Brazilians. The most common LP allele was −13910*T. Its frequency was highly correlated with European ancestry in the Brazilian populations investigated. The −13910*T was higher (0.295) in southern Brazilians of European ancestry and lower (0.175) in the Northern admixed population. LCT haplotypes were derived from the 10 LCT SNPs genotyped. Overall twenty six haplotypes previously described were identified in the four Brazilian populations studied. The Multidimensional Scaling analysis showed that Belém, in the north, was closer to Amerindians. Northeastern and southern Afro-descendants were more related with Bantu-speaking South Africans whereas the Southern population with European ancestry grouped with Southern and Northern Europeans. This study shows a high variability considering the number of LCT haplotypes observed. Due to the highly admixed nature of the Brazilian populations, the diagnosis of hypolactasia in Brazil, based only in the investigation of the −13910*T allele is an oversimplification. PMID:23029545

The impact of persistent visually disabling vitreous floaters on health status utility values.

PubMed

Zou, Haidong; Liu, Haiyun; Xu, Xun; Zhang, Xi

2013-08-01

To assess the time trade-off (TTO) utility values in patients with persistent visually disabling vitreous floaters (DVF) and to determine the reliability and validity of TTO methods in DVF patients. Prospective cross-sectional questionnaire survey: Eligible patients with persistent DVF referred to the Shanghai First People's Hospital outpatient service between January 2006 and February 2010, and randomly selected normal vision general population residents, were enrolled. All participants underwent TTO utility value evaluation. After 4-5 weeks, the patients were asked to undergo second TTO utility value evaluation during the follow-up interview. The mean initial utility values of the 107 persistent DVF patients were 0.904 ± 0.054. Regression analyses revealed that length of education, visual acuity in the poorer-vision eye and employment status were associated with utility values (all P < 0.01). All patients took part in the follow-up interview; the intra-class correlation coefficient for TTO utility values at the initial and follow-up interviews was 0.855. In the 91 general population residents, the mean utility value was 0.923 ± 0.032, which was statistically higher than that of active study patients (t = 3.01, P < 0.01). Persistent DVF can substantially diminish the patients' perception of their life, and can be measured by TTO utility values with high reliability and construct validity.

The threshold of a stochastic avian-human influenza epidemic model with psychological effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fengrong; Zhang, Xinhong

2018-02-01

In this paper, a stochastic avian-human influenza epidemic model with psychological effect in human population and saturation effect within avian population is investigated. This model describes the transmission of avian influenza among avian population and human population in random environments. For stochastic avian-only system, persistence in the mean and extinction of the infected avian population are studied. For the avian-human influenza epidemic system, sufficient conditions for the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution are obtained. Furthermore, a threshold of this stochastic model which determines the outcome of the disease is obtained. Finally, numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical results.

Determining Persistence of Community College Students in Introductory Geology Classes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kraft, Katrien van der Hoeven

2014-01-01

Science, Technology, Engineering & Mathematics (STEM) careers have been touted as critical to the success of our nation and also provide important opportunities for access and equity of underrepresented minorities (URM's). Community colleges serve a diverse population and a large number of undergraduates currently enrolled in college, they are…

Association of Lactase Persistence Genotypes with High Intake of Dairy Saturated Fat and High Prevalence of Lactase Non-Persistence among the Mexican Population.

PubMed

Ojeda-Granados, Claudia; Panduro, Arturo; Rebello Pinho, João Renato; Ramos-Lopez, Omar; Gleyzer, Ketti; Malta, Fernanda de Mello; Gonzalez-Aldaco, Karina; Roman, Sonia

2016-01-01

Lactase (LCT) -13910 C>T and -22018 G>A polymorphisms associated with the lactase non-persistence (LNP)/persistence (LP) phenotypes vary globally. LP has been associated with obesity in Europeans. However, it has not been genetically evaluated in Mexico, a country with admixed population, recent introduction of dairy, and a high prevalence of obesity. Thus, we aimed to determine the distribution of the LCT polymorphisms and their association with the nutritional profile of West Mexico's populations. Genotyping of 1,196 individuals (natives and mestizos) was carried out by a Taqman allelic discrimination assay. Descriptive statistics and interpopulation analyzes were performed by SPSS, Arlequin, and Structure software. Demographic, anthropometric, biochemical and dietary data were analyzed in 212 mestizos. LNP genotypes mainly prevailed (CC 68.7% and GG 68.2%); both predominated in native Huicholes and Nahuas (>97.7%). Among the mestizos, the LP genotypes were associated with a higher intake of saturated fat (9.9 ± 3.9% vs. 8.5 ± 4.0%, p = 0.018; OR = 2.55, 95% CI 1.29-5.03, p = 0.006) and a daily/more frequent consumption of dairy (88.8 vs. 78.0%; p = 0.049) than LNP genotypes. The LNP trait was predominant in Mexicans with a major Amerindian ancestry. A daily consumption of dairy was associated with a higher intake of saturated fat in LP individuals. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Role of patch size, disease, and movement in rapid extinction of bighorn sheep

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singer, F.J.; Zeigenfuss, L.C.; Spicer, L.

2001-01-01

The controversy (Berger 1990, 1999; Wehausen 1999) over rapid extinction in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) has focused on population size alone as a correlate to persistence time. We report on the persistence and population performance of 24 translocated populations of bighorn sheep. Persistence in these sheep was strongly correlated with larger patch sizes, greater distance to domestic sheep, higher population growth rates, and migratory movements, as well as to larger population sizes. Persistence was also positively correlated with larger average home-range size (p = 0.058, n = 10 translocated populations) and home-range size of rams (p = 0.087, n = 8 translocated populations). Greater home-range size and dispersal rates of bighorn sheep were positively correlated to larger patches. We conclude that patch size and thus habitat carrying capacity, not population size per se, is the primary correlate to both population performance and persistence. Because habitat carrying capacity defines the upper limit to population size, clearly the amount of suitable habitat in a patch is ultimately linked to population size. Larger populations (250+ animals) were more likely to recover rapidly to their pre-epizootic survey number following an epizootic (p = 0.019), although the proportion of the population dying in the epizootic also influenced the probability of recovery (p = 0.001). Expensive management efforts to restore or increase bighorn sheep populations should focus on large habitat patches located ≥23 km from domestic sheep, and less effort should be expended on populations in isolated, small patches of habitat.

The Influence of Agroforestry and Other Land-Use Types on the Persistence of a Sumatran Tiger ( Panthera tigris sumatrae) Population: An Individual-Based Model Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imron, Muhammad Ali; Herzog, Sven; Berger, Uta

2011-08-01

The importance of preserving both protected areas and their surrounding landscapes as one of the major conservation strategies for tigers has received attention over recent decades. However, the mechanism of how land-use surrounding protected areas affects the dynamics of tiger populations is poorly understood. We developed Panthera Population Persistence (PPP)—an individual-based model—to investigate the potential mechanism of the Sumatran tiger population dynamics in a protected area and under different land-use scenarios surrounding the reserve. We tested three main landscape compositions (single, combined and real land-uses of Tesso-Nilo National Park and its surrounding area) on the probability of and time to extinction of the Sumatran tiger over 20 years in Central Sumatra. The model successfully explains the mechanisms behind the population response of tigers under different habitat landscape compositions. Feeding and mating behaviours of tigers are key factors, which determined population persistence in a heterogeneous landscape. All single land-use scenarios resulted in tiger extinction but had a different probability of extinction within 20 years. If tropical forest was combined with other land-use types, the probability of extinction was smaller. The presence of agroforesty and logging concessions adjacent to protected areas encouraged the survival of tiger populations. However, with the real land-use scenario of Tesso-Nilo National Park, tigers could not survive for more than 10 years. Promoting the practice of agroforestry systems surrounding the park is probably the most reasonable way to steer land-use surrounding the Tesso-Nilo National Park to support tiger conservation.

Association Between Persistent Pain and Memory Decline and Dementia in a Longitudinal Cohort of Elders.

PubMed

Whitlock, Elizabeth L; Diaz-Ramirez, L Grisell; Glymour, M Maria; Boscardin, W John; Covinsky, Kenneth E; Smith, Alexander K

2017-08-01

Chronic pain is common among the elderly and is associated with cognitive deficits in cross-sectional studies; the population-level association between chronic pain and longitudinal cognition is unknown. To determine the population-level association between persistent pain, which may reflect chronic pain, and subsequent cognitive decline. Cohort study with biennial interviews of 10 065 community-dwelling older adults in the nationally representative Health and Retirement Study who were 62 years or older in 2000 and answered pain and cognition questions in both 1998 and 2000. Data analysis was conducted between June 24 and October 31, 2016. "Persistent pain," defined as a participant reporting that he or she was often troubled with moderate or severe pain in both the 1998 and 2000 interviews. Coprimary outcomes were composite memory score and dementia probability, estimated by combining neuropsychological test results and informant and proxy interviews, which were tracked from 2000 through 2012. Linear mixed-effects models, with random slope and intercept for each participant, were used to estimate the association of persistent pain with slope of the subsequent cognitive trajectory, adjusting for demographic characteristics and comorbidities measures in 2000 and applying sampling weights to represent the 2000 US population. We hypothesized that persistent pain would predict accelerated memory decline and increased probability of dementia. To quantify the impact of persistent pain on functional independence, we combined our primary results with information on the association between memory and ability to manage medications and finances independently. Of the 10 065 eligible HRS sample members, 60% were female, and median baseline age was 73 years (interquartile range, 67-78 years). At baseline, persistent pain affected 10.9% of participants and was associated with worse depressive symptoms and more limitations in activities of daily living. After covariate adjustment, persistent pain was associated with 9.2% (95% CI, 2.8%-15.0%) more rapid memory decline compared with those without persistent pain. After 10 years, this accelerated memory decline implied a 15.9% higher relative risk of inability to manage medications and an 11.8% higher relative risk of inability to manage finances independently. Adjusted dementia probability increased 7.7% faster (95% CI, 0.55%-14.2%); after 10 years, this translates to an absolute 2.2% increase in dementia probability for those with persistent pain. Persistent pain was associated with accelerated memory decline and increased probability of dementia.

Efficacy of Sameodes albiguttalis as a biocontrol of waterhyacinth. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Center, T.D.; Durden, W.C.; Corman, D.A.

1984-01-01

Sameodes albiguttalis (Warren) is a South American pyralid moth species which was released in Florida in 1977 for the biological control of waterhyacinth. After it was determined that populations of this insect had become established in the field, various efficacy studies were begun. The first of these began in September 1978 and, ultimately, data were collected at 15 sites from throughout Florida. The objectives of these studies were to determine (a) if S. albiguttalis would be persistent, (b) if it could be augmented if it were not persistent, and (c) if it had a significant impact upon waterhyacinth populations withinmore » the context of comparisons among other control agents and the plant's ability to recover from serious injury. Data indicate that S. albiguttalis will, under certain conditions, be an effective biological control of waterhyacinth. This will generally be only where the waterhyacinth population is in a predominantly colonizing mode. Sameodes albiguttalis, more than either of the other two waterhyacinth insects (Neochetina eichhorneae and N. bruchi), should fit comfortably into a management scheme. Its effectiveness may be maximized in a maintenance program where the waterhyacinth population is constantly perturbed and is always in a colonizing mode. Many possible management strategies exist in which this insect and herbicidal or mechanical control could be integrated and experimentation along these lines should be given a high future priority. 61 references, 109 figures, 4 tables.« less

Collapse and recovery of forage fish populations prior to commercial exploitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClatchie, S.; Hendy, I. L.; Thompson, A. R.; Watson, W.

2017-02-01

We use a new, well-calibrated 500 year paleorecord off southern California to determine collapse frequency, cross correlation, persistence, and return times of exploited forage fish populations. The paleorecord shows that "collapse" (defined as <10% of the mean peak biomass) is a normal state repeatedly experienced by northern anchovy, Pacific hake, and Pacific sardine which were collapsed 29-40% of the time, prior to commercial fishing exploitation. Mean (± SD) persistence of "fishable biomass" (defined as one third mean peak biomass from the paleorecord) was 19 ± 18, 15 ± 17, and 12 ± 7 years for anchovy, hake, and sardine. Mean return times to the same biomass was 8 years for anchovy but 22 years for sardine and hake. Further, we find that sardine and anchovy are positively correlated over 400 years, consistent with coherent declines of both species off California. Persistence and return times combined with positive sardine-anchovy correlation indicate that on average 1-2 decades of fishable biomass will be followed by 1-2 decades of low forage. Forage populations are resilient on the 500 year time scale, but their collapse and recovery cycle (based on the paleorecord) are suited to alternating periods of high fishing mortality and periods of little or no fishing.

Long-term patterns of chronic complaints of the arms, neck, and shoulders and their determinants--the Doetinchem Cohort Study.

PubMed

van Hulst, Rens; van Oostrom, Sandra H; Ostelo, Raymond W J G; Verschuren, W M Monique; Picavet, H Susan

2016-05-01

Complaints of the arms, neck, and shoulders (CANS) represent a major public health problem but the long-term course is largely unknown. Our objective was to explore the 15-year course of chronic CANS and its determinants in a population-based cohort. During 1993 to 2012, 3050 men and women aged 26 to 65 years at baseline were measured every 5 years, up to 4 times. Complaints of the arms, neck, and shoulders and sociodemographic, lifestyle, mental health, and physical load determinants were obtained by self-reported questionnaires and physical examinations. Information on chronic CANS was used to create patterns of the 15-year course: persistence, recovery, variable, no CANS, and the development of CANS. Only 47% were free of chronic CANS throughout the total 15-year period. The prevalence of other patterns was development (18.3%), persistence (8.5%), recovery (7.5%), and variable (18.7%). In multivariable logistic regression analyses, female gender, age 46 to 55 years, being not employed, former smoking, physical inactivity, an episode of CANS during the past 12 months, and high physical load in daily life (eg, often adopting awkward postures, frequent lifting, carrying, pushing, or pulling) were associated with the development of chronic CANS. Female gender, age 36 to 45 years, being not employed, and awkward postures in daily life were associated with persistent CANS. We conclude that chronic CANS represent a dynamic condition and affect the majority of the general population at least once in 15 years. Determinants associated with chronic CANS, especially physical load in daily life, can be used to develop preventive interventions and give guidance to treatment.

[Exposure to persistent and non-persistent pesticides in a non-occupationally exposed population in Tenerife Island (Spain)].

PubMed

Burillo-Putze, Guillermo; Luzardo, Octavio P; García, Carlos Pérez; Zumbado, Manuel; Yanes, Carmen; Trujillo-Martín, María del Mar; Boada Fernández del Campo, Carlos; Boada, Luis D

2014-01-01

Chronic exposure to non-persistent pesticides (NPPs) is of concern because these substances have been associated with chronic diseases. However, few studies have addressed chronic exposure to NPPs in Spanish populations. We determined the presence of 24 pesticide residues by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry in 363 serum samples obtained from non-occupationally exposed adults from Tenerife island in 2007. Most of the samples (99.45%) showed detectable residues (6 ± 2 pesticides per sample). The most frequently detected pesticides were pyrethrins (96.1%), organophosphates (93.9%) and organochlorines (92.3%). The neurotoxicants bifenthrin and malathion were detected in 81% of the samples and hexachlorobenzene DDT and buprofezin in more than 50%. Malation, an "environmental obesogen", was detected in 82%, and "endocrine disrupter" pesticides were present in 97.2% of the samples. Because there is clear, continuous and inadvertent exposure to NPPs that may be inducing adverse effects on human health, NPPs should be included in biomonitoring studies. Copyright © 2013 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Demographic monitoring and population viability analysis of two rare beardtongues from the Uinta Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCaffery, Rebecca M.; Reisor, Rita; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Brunson, Jessi

2014-01-01

Energy development, in combination with other environmental stressors, poses a persistent threat to rare species endemic to the energy-producing regions of the Western United States. Demographic analyses of monitored populations can provide key information on the natural dynamics of threatened plant and animal populations, and how they might be affected by ongoing and future development. In the Uinta Basin in Utah and Colorado, Graham’s beardtongue (Penstemon grahamii) and White River beardtongue (Penstemon scariosus var. albifluvis) are two rare endemic wildflowers that persist on oil shale habitats heavily impacted by current energy exploration and development, and slated for expanded traditional drilling and oil shale development. We described demographic characteristics and population viability for two populations of each species that have been monitored since 2004. First, we measured population size, survival rates, transitions between life stages, and recruitment using individually marked plants at the four study areas. Then, we used matrix population models to determine stochastic population growth rates (λ) and the probability that each population would persist 50 years into the future, given current conditions. The two P. grahamii study plots had small populations averaging 70 adult plants, and relatively constant and high survival in both vegetative and flowering plants. The two P. scariosus var. albifluvis study plots had populations that averaged 120 adult plants, with high and stable survival in flowering plants and variable survival in vegetative plants. Recruitment of new seedlings into all populations was low and variable, with most recruitment occurring in one or two years. Both P. grahamii populations had λ near 1.0 (stable). One P. scariosus var. albifluvis population appeared to be declining (λ=0.97), while the other was increasing (λ=1.16). Our analyses reveal populations that appear relatively stable, but that are susceptible to declines now and into the future. Increases in environmental variability, deterministic changes in habitat conditions or stressors, or a single catastrophic event could all have immediately deleterious impacts on the long-term growth trajectory of these populations.

Persistent opioid use and socio-economic factors: a population-based study in Norway.

PubMed

Svendsen, Kristian; Fredheim, Olav M; Romundstad, Pål; Borchgrevink, Petter C; Skurtveit, Svetlana

2014-04-01

A growing proportion of the population is using opioids for longer time periods, but little is known about the characteristics of patients who are persistent opioid users. We therefore studied the association between socio-economic factors and persistent vs. short-term opioid use 4 years later. The background population is the complete Norwegian population in 2001. The study population is derived from two groups aged 35 years or older in 2001 who met one of the following criteria in 2005: (1) persistent opioid users (n = 15,113) or (2) short-term opioid users (n = 214,061). The applied definition of persistent opioid use corresponds to an average daily dose indicating likely daily use of opioids during 365 consecutive days. The socio-economic factors work status, income, marital status, immigrant status and education were obtained from the Population and Housing Census of 2001, and data on opioid use in 2005 were obtained from the complete national Norwegian Prescription Database. For logistic regression analyses, the study population was stratified by gender and by age over/under 67 years. In the 35- to 67-year-old age group, receiving a disability pension was more common in persistent opioid users compared with short-term opioid users (48% vs. 16% for women, 36% vs. 9% for men). Adjusted odds ratios for receiving a disability pension were 6.51 and 5.77 for women and men, respectively. Being divorced/separated was associated with being a persistent opioid user (odds ratio of 1.4 for both genders). There were also negative associations between persistent opioid use and attained education level, an unemployed working status and income status. Disability pension, not working, divorce, low income and low education in 2001 were associated with persistent opioid use in 2005. © 2014 The Acta Anaesthesiologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The elephants of Gash-Barka, Eritrea: nuclear and mitochondrial genetic patterns.

PubMed

Brandt, Adam L; Hagos, Yohannes; Yacob, Yohannes; David, Victor A; Georgiadis, Nicholas J; Shoshani, Jeheskel; Roca, Alfred L

2014-01-01

Eritrea has one of the northernmost populations of African elephants. Only about 100 elephants persist in the Gash-Barka administrative zone. Elephants in Eritrea have become completely isolated, with no gene flow from other elephant populations. The conservation of Eritrean elephants would benefit from an understanding of their genetic affinities to elephants elsewhere on the continent and the degree to which genetic variation persists in the population. Using dung samples from Eritrean elephants, we examined 18 species-diagnostic single nucleotide polymorphisms in 3 nuclear genes, sequences of mitochondrial HVR1 and ND5, and genotyped 11 microsatellite loci. The sampled Eritrean elephants carried nuclear and mitochondrial DNA markers establishing them as savanna elephants, with closer genetic affinity to Eastern than to North Central savanna elephant populations, and contrary to speculation by some scholars that forest elephants were found in Eritrea. Mitochondrial DNA diversity was relatively low, with 2 haplotypes unique to Eritrea predominating. Microsatellite genotypes could only be determined for a small number of elephants but suggested that the population suffers from low genetic diversity. Conservation efforts should aim to protect Eritrean elephants and their habitat in the short run, with restoration of habitat connectivity and genetic diversity as long-term goals.

Frequency of adult type-associated lactase persistence LCT-13910C/T genotypes in the Czech/Slav and Czech Roma/Gypsy populations

PubMed Central

Hubácek, Jaroslav A.; Adámková, Věra; Šedová, Lenka; Olišarová, Věra; Adámek, Václav; Tóthová, Valérie

2017-01-01

Abstract Lactase non-persistence (leading to primary lactose intolerance) is a genetically dependent inability to digest lactose in adulthood. As part of the human adaptation to dairying, the human lactase LCT-13910C/T mutation (which propagates adult expression of lactase) developed, spread and participated in the adaptation to dairying. This variant is associated with lactase activity persistence, and its carriers are able to digest lactose. We compared the frequencies of lactase 13910C/T (rs4988235) genotypes in Czechs/Slavs (N = 288) and Czech Gypsies/Roma (N = 300), two ethnically different groups where this polymorphism has not yet been analysed. Allelic frequencies significantly differed between the populations (p < 0.0001). In Czechs/Slavs, the lactase persistence T allele was present in 76% of the individuals, which is in agreement with frequencies among geographically neighbouring populations. In the Czech Gypsy/Roma population, only 27% of the adults were carriers of at least one lactase persistence allele, similar to the Indian population. In agreement with this result, dairy product consumption was reported by 70.5% of Czechs/Slavs and 39.0% of the Czech Gypsy/Roma population. Both in the Czech Gypsy/Roma and in the Czech/Slavs populations, the presence of carriers of the lactase persistence allele was similar in subjects self-reporting the consumption of unfermented/fresh milk, in comparison to the others. PMID:28497837

Frequency of adult type-associated lactase persistence LCT-13910C/T genotypes in the Czech/Slav and Czech Roma/Gypsy populations.

PubMed

Hubácek, Jaroslav A; Adámková, Věra; Šedová, Lenka; Olišarová, Věra; Adámek, Václav; Tóthová, Valérie

2017-01-01

Lactase non-persistence (leading to primary lactose intolerance) is a genetically dependent inability to digest lactose in adulthood. As part of the human adaptation to dairying, the human lactase LCT-13910C/T mutation (which propagates adult expression of lactase) developed, spread and participated in the adaptation to dairying. This variant is associated with lactase activity persistence, and its carriers are able to digest lactose. We compared the frequencies of lactase 13910C/T (rs4988235) genotypes in Czechs/Slavs (N = 288) and Czech Gypsies/Roma (N = 300), two ethnically different groups where this polymorphism has not yet been analysed. Allelic frequencies significantly differed between the populations (p < 0.0001). In Czechs/Slavs, the lactase persistence T allele was present in 76% of the individuals, which is in agreement with frequencies among geographically neighbouring populations. In the Czech Gypsy/Roma population, only 27% of the adults were carriers of at least one lactase persistence allele, similar to the Indian population. In agreement with this result, dairy product consumption was reported by 70.5% of Czechs/Slavs and 39.0% of the Czech Gypsy/Roma population. Both in the Czech Gypsy/Roma and in the Czech/Slavs populations, the presence of carriers of the lactase persistence allele was similar in subjects self-reporting the consumption of unfermented/fresh milk, in comparison to the others.

Population genomics reveals seahorses (Hippocampus erectus) of the western mid-Atlantic coast to be residents rather than vagrants.

PubMed

Boehm, J T; Waldman, John; Robinson, John D; Hickerson, Michael J

2015-01-01

Understanding population structure and areas of demographic persistence and transients is critical for effective species management. However, direct observational evidence to address the geographic scale and delineation of ephemeral or persistent populations for many marine fishes is limited. The Lined seahorse (Hippocampus erectus) can be commonly found in three western Atlantic zoogeographic provinces, though inhabitants of the temperate northern Virginia Province are often considered tropical vagrants that only arrive during warm seasons from the southern provinces and perish as temperatures decline. Although genetics can locate regions of historical population persistence and isolation, previous evidence of Virginia Province persistence is only provisional due to limited genetic sampling (i.e., mitochondrial DNA and five nuclear loci). To test alternative hypotheses of historical persistence versus the ephemerality of a northern Virginia Province population we used a RADseq generated dataset consisting of 11,708 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) sampled from individuals collected from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to Long Island, NY. Concordant results from genomic analyses all infer three genetically divergent subpopulations, and strongly support Virginia Province inhabitants as a genetically diverged and a historically persistent ancestral gene pool. These results suggest that individuals that emerge in coastal areas during the warm season can be considered "local" and supports offshore migration during the colder months. This research demonstrates how a large number of genes sampled across a geographical range can capture the diversity of coalescent histories (across loci) while inferring population history. Moreover, these results clearly demonstrate the utility of population genomic data to infer peripheral subpopulation persistence in difficult-to-observe species.

Patterns and predictors of ADHD persistence into adulthood: Results from the National Comorbidity Survey Replication

PubMed Central

Kessler, Ronald C.; Adler, Lenard A.; Barkley, Russell; Biederman, Joseph; Conners, C. Keith; Faraone, Stephen V.; Greenhill, Laurence L.; Jaeger, Savina; Secnik, Kristina; Spencer, Thomas; Üstün, T. Bedirhan; Zaslavsky, Alan M.

2010-01-01

BACKGROUND Despite growing interest in adult ADHD, little is known about predictors of persistence of childhood cases into adulthood. METHODS A retrospective assessment of childhood ADHD, childhood risk factors, and a screen for adult ADHD were included in a sample of 3197 18–44 year old respondents in the National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R). Blinded adult ADHD clinical reappraisal interviews were administered to a sub-sample of respondents. Multiple imputation (MI) was used to estimate adult persistence of childhood ADHD. Logistic regression was used to study retrospectively reported childhood predictors of persistence. Potential predictors included socio-demographics, childhood ADHD severity, childhood adversity, traumatic life experiences, and comorbid DSM-IV child-adolescent disorders (anxiety, mood, impulse-control, and substance disorders). RESULTS 36.3% of respondents with retrospectively assessed childhood ADHD were classified by blinded clinical interviews as meeting DSM-IV criteria for current ADHD. Childhood ADHD severity and childhood treatment significantly predicted persistence. Controlling for severity and excluding treatment, none of the other variables significantly predicted persistence even though they were significantly associated with childhood ADHD. CONCLUSIONS No modifiable risk factors were found for adult persistence of ADHD. Further research, ideally based on prospective general population samples, is needed to search for modifiable determinants of adult persistence of ADHD. PMID:15950019

Characterization of multi-drug tolerant persister cells in Streptococcus suis.

PubMed

Willenborg, Jörg; Willms, Daniela; Bertram, Ralph; Goethe, Ralph; Valentin-Weigand, Peter

2014-05-12

Persister cells constitute a subpopulation of dormant cells within a microbial population which are genetically identical but phenotypically different to regular cells. Notably, persister cells show an elevated tolerance to antimicrobial agents. Thus, they are considered to represent a microbial 'bet-hedging' strategy and are of particular importance in pathogenic bacteria. We studied the ability of the zoonotic pathogen Streptococcus (S.) suis to form multi-drug tolerant variants and identified persister cells dependent on the initial bacterial growth phase. We observed lower numbers of persisters in exponential phase cultures than in stationary growth phase populations. S. suis persister cells showed a high tolerance to a variety of antibiotics, and the phenotype was not inherited as tested with four passages of S. suis populations. Furthermore, we provide evidence that the persister phenotype is related to expression of genes involved in general metabolic pathways since we found higher numbers of persister cells in a mutant strain defective in the catabolic arginine deiminase system as compared to its parental wild type strain. Finally, we observed persister cell formation also in other S. suis strains and pathogenic streptococcal species. Taken together, this is the first study that reports multi-drug tolerant persister cells in the zoonotic pathogen S. suis.

The rise of ampicillin-resistant Enterococcus faecium high-risk clones as a frequent intestinal colonizer in oncohaematological neutropenic patients on levofloxacin prophylaxis: a risk for bacteraemia?

PubMed

Sánchez-Díaz, A M; Cuartero, C; Rodríguez, J D; Lozano, S; Alonso, J M; Rodríguez-Domínguez, M; Tedim, A P; Del Campo, R; López, J; Cantón, R; Ruiz-Garbajosa, P

2016-01-01

Levofloxacin extended prophylaxis (LEP), recommended in oncohaematological neutropenic patients to reduce infections, might select resistant bacteria in the intestine acting as a source of endogenous infection. In a prospective observational study we evaluated intestinal emergence and persistence of ampicillin-resistant Enterococcus faecium (AREfm), a marker of hospital adapted high-risk clones. AREfm was recovered from the faeces of 52 patients with prolonged neutropenia after chemotherapy, at admission (Basal), during LEP, and twice weekly until discharge (Pos-LEP). Antibiotic susceptibility, virulence traits and population structure (pulsed-field gel electrophoresis and multilocus sequence typing) were determined and compared with bacteraemic isolates. Gut enterococcal population was monitored using a quantitative PCR quantification approach. AREfm colonized 61.4% of patients (194/482 faecal samples). Sequential AREfm acquisition (25% Basal, 36.5% LEP, 50% Pos-LEP) and high persistent colonization rates (76.9-89.5%) associated with a decrease in clonal diversity were demonstrated. Isolates were clustered into 24 PFGE-patterns within 13 sequence types, 95.8% of them belonging to hospital-associated Bayesian analysis of population structure subgroups 2.1a and 3.3a. Levofloxacin resistance and high-level streptomycin resistance were a common trait of these high-risk clones. AREfm-ST117, the most persistent clone, was dominant (60.0% isolates, 32.6% patients). It presented esp gene and caused 18.2% of all bacteraemia episodes in 21% of patients previously colonized by this clone. In AREfm-colonized patients, intestinal enrichment in the E. faecium population with a decline in total bacterial load was observed. AREfm intestinal colonization increases during hospital stay and coincides with enterococci population enrichment in the gut. Dominance and intestinal persistence of the ST117 clone might increase the risk of bacteraemia. Copyright © 2015 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Demographic threats to the sustainability of Brazil nut exploitation.

PubMed

Peres, Carlos A; Baider, Claudia; Zuidema, Pieter A; Wadt, Lúcia H O; Kainer, Karen A; Gomes-Silva, Daisy A P; Salomão, Rafael P; Simões, Luciana L; Franciosi, Eduardo R N; Cornejo Valverde, Fernando; Gribel, Rogério; Shepard, Glenn H; Kanashiro, Milton; Coventry, Peter; Yu, Douglas W; Watkinson, Andrew R; Freckleton, Robert P

2003-12-19

A comparative analysis of 23 populations of the Brazil nut tree (Bertholletia excelsa) across the Brazilian, Peruvian, and Bolivian Amazon shows that the history and intensity of Brazil nut exploitation are major determinants of population size structure. Populations subjected to persistent levels of harvest lack juvenile trees less than 60 centimeters in diameter at breast height; only populations with a history of either light or recent exploitation contain large numbers of juvenile trees. A harvesting model confirms that intensive exploitation levels over the past century are such that juvenile recruitment is insufficient to maintain populations over the long term. Without management, intensively harvested populations will succumb to a process of senescence and demographic collapse, threatening this cornerstone of the Amazonian extractive economy.

Genome specialization and decay of the strangles pathogen, Streptococcus equi, is driven by persistent infection

PubMed Central

Harris, Simon R.; Robinson, Carl; Steward, Karen F.; Webb, Katy S.; Paillot, Romain; Parkhill, Julian; Holden, Matthew T.G.; Waller, Andrew S.

2015-01-01

Strangles, the most frequently diagnosed infectious disease of horses worldwide, is caused by Streptococcus equi. Despite its prevalence, the global diversity and mechanisms underlying the evolution of S. equi as a host-restricted pathogen remain poorly understood. Here, we define the global population structure of this important pathogen and reveal a population replacement in the late 19th or early 20th Century. Our data reveal a dynamic genome that continues to mutate and decay, but also to amplify and acquire genes despite the organism having lost its natural competence and become host-restricted. The lifestyle of S. equi within the horse is defined by short-term acute disease, strangles, followed by long-term infection. Population analysis reveals evidence of convergent evolution in isolates from post-acute disease samples as a result of niche adaptation to persistent infection within a host. Mutations that lead to metabolic streamlining and the loss of virulence determinants are more frequently found in persistent isolates, suggesting that the pathogenic potential of S. equi reduces as a consequence of long-term residency within the horse post-acute disease. An example of this is the deletion of the equibactin siderophore locus that is associated with iron acquisition, which occurs exclusively in persistent isolates, and renders S. equi significantly less able to cause acute disease in the natural host. We identify several loci that may similarly be required for the full virulence of S. equi, directing future research toward the development of new vaccines against this host-restricted pathogen. PMID:26160165

High turnover drives prolonged persistence of influenza in managed pig herds

PubMed Central

Aguas, Ricardo; Riley, Steven; Loeffen, Willie L. A.; Wood, James L. N.; Grenfell, Bryan T.

2016-01-01

Pigs have long been hypothesized to play a central role in the emergence of novel human influenza A virus (IAV) strains, by serving as mixing vessels for mammalian and avian variants. However, the key issue of viral persistence in swine populations at different scales is ill understood. We address this gap using epidemiological models calibrated against seroprevalence data from Dutch finishing pigs to estimate the ‘critical herd size’ (CHS) for IAV persistence. We then examine the viral phylogenetic evidence for persistence by comparing human and swine IAV. Models suggest a CHS of approximately 3000 pigs above which influenza was likely to persist, i.e. orders of magnitude lower than persistence thresholds for IAV and other acute viruses in humans. At national and regional scales, we found much stronger empirical signatures of prolonged persistence of IAV in swine compared with human populations. These striking levels of persistence in small populations are driven by the high recruitment rate of susceptible piglets, and have significant implications for management of swine and for overall patterns of genetic diversity of IAV. PMID:27358277

Population Genomics Reveals Seahorses (Hippocampus erectus) of the Western Mid-Atlantic Coast to Be Residents Rather than Vagrants

PubMed Central

Boehm, J. T.; Waldman, John; Robinson, John D.; Hickerson, Michael J.

2015-01-01

Understanding population structure and areas of demographic persistence and transients is critical for effective species management. However, direct observational evidence to address the geographic scale and delineation of ephemeral or persistent populations for many marine fishes is limited. The Lined seahorse (Hippocampus erectus) can be commonly found in three western Atlantic zoogeographic provinces, though inhabitants of the temperate northern Virginia Province are often considered tropical vagrants that only arrive during warm seasons from the southern provinces and perish as temperatures decline. Although genetics can locate regions of historical population persistence and isolation, previous evidence of Virginia Province persistence is only provisional due to limited genetic sampling (i.e., mitochondrial DNA and five nuclear loci). To test alternative hypotheses of historical persistence versus the ephemerality of a northern Virginia Province population we used a RADseq generated dataset consisting of 11,708 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) sampled from individuals collected from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to Long Island, NY. Concordant results from genomic analyses all infer three genetically divergent subpopulations, and strongly support Virginia Province inhabitants as a genetically diverged and a historically persistent ancestral gene pool. These results suggest that individuals that emerge in coastal areas during the warm season can be considered “local” and supports offshore migration during the colder months. This research demonstrates how a large number of genes sampled across a geographical range can capture the diversity of coalescent histories (across loci) while inferring population history. Moreover, these results clearly demonstrate the utility of population genomic data to infer peripheral subpopulation persistence in difficult-to-observe species. PMID:25629166

Genetic diversity of lactase persistence in East African populations.

PubMed

Hassan, Hisham Y; van Erp, Anke; Jaeger, Martin; Tahir, Hanan; Oosting, Marije; Joosten, Leo A B; Netea, Mihai G

2016-01-04

The expression of lactase which digests lactose from milk in humans is generally lost after weaning, but selected mutations influencing the promoter of the lactase gene have spread into the human populations. This is considered a classical example of gene-culture co-evolution, and several studies suggested that the lactase gene has been under strong directional evolutionary selective pressure in the past 5000 to 10,000 years. In the present study we investigated the distribution of three gene variants leading to lactase persistence in 12 different East African populations as well as one European population. Our results show that with the exception of Copts and Nilotic populations who are fully lactose non-persistent, the majority of populations of East Africa show at least partly lactose persistence, with both ethnic and socio-economic aspects playing an important role in the distribution of genetic variants. In this study, the variants C/G-13907 and T/G-13915, which are the major variants among the nomadic Arabs in the Arabia and Beja of East Africa, showed remarkable frequencies in Sudanese populations, especially those of pastoralists, in line with the historical links and bidirectional migration of nomadic populations between Arabia and East Africa. The C/T-13910 variant, generally associated with European populations is uniquely present among the Fulani. These data indicate that a combination of socio-economic, ethnic and evolutionary factors converged to shape the genetic structure of lactase persistence in East African populations.

Wolf population persistence in real life

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L.D.; Liberg, O.

2005-01-01

Wolf (Canis lupus) populations tend to be resilient and to persist for long periods, and several characteristics contribute to their resilience and persistence: (1) age of first reproduction (2-3 years), (2) high annual litter size (mean = 6), (3) low dispersal age (1-3 years), and (4) long potential dispersal distance (< 880 km). The only documented factor leading to extinction of well established wolf populations with sufficient food is deliberate poisoning, although conceivably disease could have such an effect.

Contact-dependent growth inhibition induces high levels of antibiotic-tolerant persister cells in clonal bacterial populations.

PubMed

Ghosh, Anirban; Baltekin, Özden; Wäneskog, Marcus; Elkhalifa, Dina; Hammarlöf, Disa L; Elf, Johan; Koskiniemi, Sanna

2018-05-02

Bacterial populations can use bet-hedging strategies to cope with rapidly changing environments. One example is non-growing cells in clonal bacterial populations that are able to persist antibiotic treatment. Previous studies suggest that persisters arise in bacterial populations either stochastically through variation in levels of global signalling molecules between individual cells, or in response to various stresses. Here, we show that toxins used in contact-dependent growth inhibition (CDI) create persisters upon direct contact with cells lacking sufficient levels of CdiI immunity protein, which would otherwise bind to and neutralize toxin activity. CDI-mediated persisters form through a feedforward cycle where the toxic activity of the CdiA toxin increases cellular (p)ppGpp levels, which results in Lon-mediated degradation of the immunity protein and more free toxin. Thus, CDI systems mediate a population density-dependent bet-hedging strategy, where the fraction of non-growing cells is increased only when there are many cells of the same genotype. This may be one of the mechanisms of how CDI systems increase the fitness of their hosts. © 2018 The Authors.

Characterization of multi-drug tolerant persister cells in Streptococcus suis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Persister cells constitute a subpopulation of dormant cells within a microbial population which are genetically identical but phenotypically different to regular cells. Notably, persister cells show an elevated tolerance to antimicrobial agents. Thus, they are considered to represent a microbial ‘bet-hedging’ strategy and are of particular importance in pathogenic bacteria. Results We studied the ability of the zoonotic pathogen Streptococcus (S.) suis to form multi-drug tolerant variants and identified persister cells dependent on the initial bacterial growth phase. We observed lower numbers of persisters in exponential phase cultures than in stationary growth phase populations. S. suis persister cells showed a high tolerance to a variety of antibiotics, and the phenotype was not inherited as tested with four passages of S. suis populations. Furthermore, we provide evidence that the persister phenotype is related to expression of genes involved in general metabolic pathways since we found higher numbers of persister cells in a mutant strain defective in the catabolic arginine deiminase system as compared to its parental wild type strain. Finally, we observed persister cell formation also in other S. suis strains and pathogenic streptococcal species. Conclusions Taken together, this is the first study that reports multi-drug tolerant persister cells in the zoonotic pathogen S. suis. PMID:24885389

Synchronisation and stability in river metapopulation networks.

PubMed

Yeakel, J D; Moore, J W; Guimarães, P R; de Aguiar, M A M

2014-03-01

Spatial structure in landscapes impacts population stability. Two linked components of stability have large consequences for persistence: first, statistical stability as the lack of temporal fluctuations; second, synchronisation as an aspect of dynamic stability, which erodes metapopulation rescue effects. Here, we determine the influence of river network structure on the stability of riverine metapopulations. We introduce an approach that converts river networks to metapopulation networks, and analytically show how fluctuation magnitude is influenced by interaction structure. We show that river metapopulation complexity (in terms of branching prevalence) has nonlinear dampening effects on population fluctuations, and can also buffer against synchronisation. We conclude by showing that river transects generally increase synchronisation, while the spatial scale of interaction has nonlinear effects on synchronised dynamics. Our results indicate that this dual stability - conferred by fluctuation and synchronisation dampening - emerges from interaction structure in rivers, and this may strongly influence the persistence of river metapopulations. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Effects of landscape and patch-level attributes on regional population persistence

EPA Science Inventory

Habitat patch size and isolation are often described as the key habitat variables influencing population dynamics. Yet habitat quality may also play an important role in influencing the regional persistence of spatially structured populations as the value or density of resources ...

PHENOTYPIC DIFFERENTIATION AT SOUTHERN LIMIT BORDERS: THE CASE STUDY OF TWO FUCOID MACROALGAL SPECIES WITH DIFFERENT LIFE-HISTORY TRAITS1.

PubMed

Araújo, Rita; Serrão, Ester A; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel; Åberg, Per

2011-06-01

Marginal populations are often geographically isolated, smaller, and more fragmented than central populations and may frequently have to face suboptimal local environmental conditions. Persistence of these populations frequently involves the development of adaptive traits at phenotypic and genetic levels. We compared population structure and demographic variables in two fucoid macroalgal species contrasting in patterns of genetic diversity and phenotypic plasticity at their southern distribution limit with a more central location. Models were Ascophyllum nodosum (L.) Le Jol. (whose extreme longevity and generation overlap may buffer genetic loss by drift) and Fucus serratus L. (with low genetic diversity at southern margins). At edge locations, both species exhibited trends in life-history traits compatible with population persistence but by using different mechanisms. Marginal populations of A. nodosum had higher reproductive output in spite of similar mortality rates at all life stages, making edge populations denser and with smaller individuals. In F. serratus, rather than demographic changes, marginal populations differed in habitat, occurring restricted to a narrower vertical habitat range. We conclude that persistence of both A. nodosum and F. serratus at the southern-edge locations depends on different strategies. Marginal population persistence in A. nodosum relies on a differentiation in life-history traits, whereas F. serratus, putatively poorer in evolvability potential, is restricted to a narrower vertical range at border locations. These results contribute to the general understanding of mechanisms that lead to population persistence at distributional limits and to predict population resilience under a scenario of environmental change. © 2011 Phycological Society of America.

Comparison of ‘HoBi’-like viral populations among persistent infected calves generated under experimental conditions and to inoculum virus

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Like other members from the Pestivirus genus, ‘HoBi’-like pestiviruses cause economic losses for cattle producers due to both acute and persistent infections. Pestivirus exist as quasispecies (swarms of individual viruses) in persistently infected (PI) animals leading to viral populations that are m...

Co-colonisation with Aspergillus fumigatus and Pseudomonas aeruginosa is associated with poorer health in cystic fibrosis patients: an Irish registry analysis.

PubMed

Reece, Emma; Segurado, Ricardo; Jackson, Abaigeal; McClean, Siobhán; Renwick, Julie; Greally, Peter

2017-04-21

Pulmonary infection is the main cause of death in cystic fibrosis (CF). Aspergillus fumigatus (AF) and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (PA) are the most prevalent fungal and bacterial pathogens isolated from the CF airway, respectively. Our aim was to determine the effect of different colonisation profiles of AF and PA on the clinical status of patients with CF. A retrospective analysis of data from the Cystic Fibrosis Registry of Ireland from 2013 was performed to determine the effect of intermittent and persistent colonisation with AF or PA or co-colonisation with both microorganisms on clinical outcome measures in patients with CF. Key outcomes measured included forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV 1 ), number of hospitalisations, respiratory exacerbations and antimicrobials prescribed, and complications of CF, including CF related diabetes (CFRD) and allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis (ABPA). The prevalence of AF and PA colonisation were 11% (5% persistent, 6% intermittent) and 31% (19% persistent, 12% intermittent) in the Irish CF population, respectively. Co-colonisation with both pathogens was associated with a 13.8% reduction in FEV 1 (p = 0.016), higher levels of exacerbations (p = 0.042), hospitalisations (p = 0.023) and antimicrobial usage (p = 0.014) compared to non-colonised patients and these clinical outcomes were comparable to those persistently colonised with PA. Intermittent and persistent AF colonisation were not associated with poorer clinical outcomes or ABPA. Patients with persistent PA had a higher prevalence of CFRD diagnosis (p = 0.012). CF patients co-colonised with AF and PA had poor clinical outcomes comparable to patients persistently colonised with PA, emphasising the clinical significance of co-colonisation with these microorganisms.

The Diverse Forms of Lactose Intolerance and the Putative Linkage to Several Cancers

PubMed Central

Amiri, Mahdi; Diekmann, Lena; von Köckritz-Blickwede, Maren; Naim, Hassan Y.

2015-01-01

Lactase-phlorizin hydrolase (LPH) is a membrane glycoprotein and the only β-galactosidase of the brush border membrane of the intestinal epithelium. Besides active transcription, expression of the active LPH requires different maturation steps of the polypeptide through the secretory pathway, including N- and O-glycosylation, dimerization and proteolytic cleavage steps. The inability to digest lactose due to insufficient lactase activity results in gastrointestinal symptoms known as lactose intolerance. In this review, we will concentrate on the structural and functional features of LPH protein and summarize the cellular and molecular mechanism required for its maturation and trafficking. Then, different types of lactose intolerance are discussed, and the molecular aspects of lactase persistence/non-persistence phenotypes are investigated. Finally, we will review the literature focusing on the lactase persistence/non-persistence populations as a comparative model in order to determine the protective or adverse effects of milk and dairy foods on the incidence of colorectal, ovarian and prostate cancers. PMID:26343715

The Diverse Forms of Lactose Intolerance and the Putative Linkage to Several Cancers.

PubMed

Amiri, Mahdi; Diekmann, Lena; von Köckritz-Blickwede, Maren; Naim, Hassan Y

2015-08-28

Lactase-phlorizin hydrolase (LPH) is a membrane glycoprotein and the only β-galactosidase of the brush border membrane of the intestinal epithelium. Besides active transcription, expression of the active LPH requires different maturation steps of the polypeptide through the secretory pathway, including N- and O-glycosylation, dimerization and proteolytic cleavage steps. The inability to digest lactose due to insufficient lactase activity results in gastrointestinal symptoms known as lactose intolerance. In this review, we will concentrate on the structural and functional features of LPH protein and summarize the cellular and molecular mechanism required for its maturation and trafficking. Then, different types of lactose intolerance are discussed, and the molecular aspects of lactase persistence/non-persistence phenotypes are investigated. Finally, we will review the literature focusing on the lactase persistence/non-persistence populations as a comparative model in order to determine the protective or adverse effects of milk and dairy foods on the incidence of colorectal, ovarian and prostate cancers.

Lactase Non-persistence and Lactose Intolerance.

PubMed

Bayless, Theodore M; Brown, Elizabeth; Paige, David M

2017-05-01

To evaluate the clinical and nutritional significance of genetically determined lactase non-persistence and potential lactose and milk intolerance in 65-70% of the world's adult population. Milk consumption is decreasing in the USA and is the lowest in countries with a high prevalence of lactase non-persistence. The dairy industry and Minnesota investigators have made efforts to minimize the influence of lactose intolerance on milk consumption. Some lactose intolerant individuals, without co-existent irritable bowel syndrome, are able to consume a glass of milk with a meal with no or minor symptoms. The high frequency of lactase persistence in offspring of Northern European countries and in some nomadic African tribes is due to mutations in the promoter of the lactase gene in association with survival advantage of milk drinking. Educational and commercial efforts to improve calcium and Vitamin D intake have focused on urging consumption of tolerable amounts of milk with a meal, use of lowered lactose-content foods including hard cheeses, yogurt, and lactose-hydrolyzed milk products.

Linkage disequilibrium, persistence of phase, and effective population size in Spanish local beef cattle breeds assessed through a high-density single nucleotide polymorphism chip.

PubMed

Cañas-Álvarez, J J; Mouresan, E F; Varona, L; Díaz, C; Molina, A; Baro, J A; Altarriba, J; Carabaño, M J; Casellas, J; Piedrafita, J

2016-07-01

Linkage disequilibrium (LD) and persistence of phase are fundamental approaches for exploring the genetic basis of economically important traits in cattle, including the identification of QTL for genomic selection and the estimation of effective population size () to determine the size of the training populations. In this study, we have used the Illumina BovineHD chip in 168 trios of 7 Spanish beef cattle breeds to obtain an overview of the magnitude of LD and the persistence of LD phase through the physical distance between markers. Also, we estimated the time of divergence based on the persistence of the LD phase and calculated past from LD estimates using different alternatives to define the recombination rate. Estimates of average (as a measure of LD) for adjacent markers were close to 0.52 in the 7 breeds and decreased with the distance between markers, although in long distances, some LD still remained (0.07 and 0.05 for markers 200 kb and 1 Mb apart, respectively). A panel with a lower boundary of 38,000 SNP would be necessary to launch a successful within-breed genomic selection program. Persistence of phase, measured as the pairwise correlations between estimates of in 2 breeds at short distances (10 kb), was in the 0.89 to 0.94 range and decreased from 0.33 to 0.52 to a range of 0.01 to 0.08 when marker distance increased from 200 kb to 1 Mb, respectively. The magnitude of the persistence of phase between the Spanish beef breeds was similar to those found in dairy breeds. For across-breed genomic selection, the size of the SNP panels must be in the range of 50,000 to 83,000 SNP. Estimates of past showed values ranging from 26 to 31 for 1 generation ago in all breeds. The divergence among breeds occurred between 129 and 207 generations ago. The results of this study are relevant for the future implementation of within- and across-breed genomic selection programs in the Spanish beef cattle populations. Our results suggest that a reduced subset of the SNP panel would be enough to achieve an adequate precision of the genomic predictions.

Unusual dynamics of extinction in a simple ecological model.

PubMed Central

Sinha, S; Parthasarathy, S

1996-01-01

Studies on natural populations and harvesting biological resources have led to the view, commonly held, that (i) populations exhibiting chaotic oscillations run a high risk of extinction; and (ii) a decrease in emigration/exploitation may reduce the risk of extinction. Here we describe a simple ecological model with emigration/depletion that shows behavior in contrast to this. This model displays unusual dynamics of extinction and survival, where populations growing beyond a critical rate can persist within a band of high depletion rates, whereas extinction occurs for lower depletion rates. Though prior to extinction at lower depletion rates the population exhibits chaotic dynamics with large amplitudes of variation and very low minima, at higher depletion rates the population persists at chaos but with reduced variation and increased minima. For still higher values, within the band of persistence, the dynamics show period reversal leading to stability. These results illustrate that chaos does not necessarily lead to population extinction. In addition, the persistence of populations at high depletion rates has important implications in the considerations of strategies for the management of biological resources. PMID:8643661

High-Cost Users of Prescription Drugs: A Population-Based Analysis from British Columbia, Canada.

PubMed

Weymann, Deirdre; Smolina, Kate; Gladstone, Emilie J; Morgan, Steven G

2017-04-01

To examine variation in pharmaceutical spending and patient characteristics across prescription drug user groups. British Columbia's population-based linked administrative health and sociodemographic databases (N = 3,460,763). We classified individuals into empirically derived prescription drug user groups based on pharmaceutical spending patterns outside hospitals from 2007 to 2011. We examined variation in patient characteristics, mortality, and health services usage and applied hierarchical clustering to determine patterns of concurrent drug use identifying high-cost patients. Approximately 1 in 20 British Columbians had persistently high prescription costs for 5 consecutive years, accounting for 42 percent of 2011 province-wide pharmaceutical spending. Less than 1 percent of the population experienced discrete episodes of high prescription costs; an additional 2.8 percent transitioned to or from high-cost episodes of unknown duration. Persistent high-cost users were more likely to concurrently use multiple chronic medications; episodic and transitory users spent more on specialized medicines, including outpatient cancer drugs. Cluster analyses revealed heterogeneity in concurrent medicine use within high-cost groups. Whether low, moderate, or high, costs of prescription drugs for most individuals are persistent over time. Policies controlling high-cost use should focus on reducing polypharmacy and encouraging price competition in drug classes used by ordinary and high-cost users alike. © 2016 The Authors. Health Services Research published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Health Research and Educational Trust.

Projecting the future of an alpine ungulate under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

White, Kevin S; Gregovich, David P; Levi, Taal

2018-03-01

Climate change represents a primary threat to species persistence and biodiversity at a global scale. Cold adapted alpine species are especially sensitive to climate change and can offer key "early warning signs" about deleterious effects of predicted change. Among mountain ungulates, survival, a key determinant of demographic performance, may be influenced by future climate in complex, and possibly opposing ways. Demographic data collected from 447 mountain goats in 10 coastal Alaska, USA, populations over a 37-year time span indicated that survival is highest during low snowfall winters and cool summers. However, general circulation models (GCMs) predict future increase in summer temperature and decline in winter snowfall. To disentangle how these opposing climate-driven effects influence mountain goat populations, we developed an age-structured population model to project mountain goat population trajectories for 10 different GCM/emissions scenarios relevant for coastal Alaska. Projected increases in summer temperature had stronger negative effects on population trajectories than the positive demographic effects of reduced winter snowfall. In 5 of the 10 GCM/representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, the net effect of projected climate change was extinction over a 70-year time window (2015-2085); smaller initial populations were more likely to go extinct faster than larger populations. Using a resource selection modeling approach, we determined that distributional shifts to higher elevation (i.e., "thermoneutral") summer range was unlikely to be a viable behavioral adaptation strategy; due to the conical shape of mountains, summer range was expected to decline by 17%-86% for 7 of the 10 GCM/RCP scenarios. Projected declines of mountain goat populations are driven by climate-linked bottom-up mechanisms and may have wide ranging implications for alpine ecosystems. These analyses elucidate how projected climate change can negatively alter population dynamics of a sentinel alpine species and provide insight into how demographic modeling can be used to assess risk to species persistence. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Defining Attributes and Metrics of Effective Research Mentoring Relationships.

PubMed

Pfund, Christine; Byars-Winston, Angela; Branchaw, Janet; Hurtado, Sylvia; Eagan, Kevin

2016-09-01

Despite evidence of mentoring's importance in training researchers, studies to date have not yet determined which mentoring relationships have the most impact and what specific factors in those mentoring relationships contribute to key outcomes, such as the commitment to and persistence in research career paths for emerging researchers from diverse populations. Efforts to broaden participation and persistence in biomedical research careers require an understanding of why and how mentoring relationships work and their impact, not only to research training but also to promoting career advancement. This paper proposes core attributes of effective mentoring relationships, as supported by the literature and suggested by theoretical models of academic persistence. In addition, both existing and developing metrics for measuring the effectiveness of these attributes within mentoring relationships across diverse groups are presented, as well as preliminary data on these metrics from the authors' work.

Mycorrhizal fungal establishment in agricultural soils: factors determining inoculation success.

PubMed

Verbruggen, Erik; van der Heijden, Marcel G A; Rillig, Matthias C; Kiers, E Toby

2013-03-01

Soil biota provide a number of key ecological services to natural and agricultural ecosystems. Increasingly, inoculation of soils with beneficial soil biota is being considered as a tool to enhance plant productivity and sustainability of agricultural ecosystems. However, one important bottleneck is the establishment of viable microbial populations that can persist over multiple seasons. Here, we explore the factors responsible for establishment of the beneficial soil fungi, arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), which can enhance the yield of a wide range of agricultural crops. We evaluate field application potential and discuss ecological and evolutionary factors responsible for application success. We identify three factors that determine inoculation success and AM fungal persistence in soils: species compatibility (can the introduced species thrive under the imposed circumstances?); field carrying capacity (the habitat niche available to AMF); and priority effects (the influence of timing and competition on the establishment of alternative stable communities). We explore how these factors can be employed for establishment and persistence of AMF. We address the importance of inoculum choice, plant choice, management practices and timing of inoculation for the successful manipulation of the resulting AMF community.

Rainfall effects on rare annual plants

USGS Publications Warehouse

Levine, J.M.; McEachern, A.K.; Cowan, C.

2008-01-01

Variation in climate is predicted to increase over much of the planet this century. Forecasting species persistence with climate change thus requires understanding of how populations respond to climate variability, and the mechanisms underlying this response. Variable rainfall is well known to drive fluctuations in annual plant populations, yet the degree to which population response is driven by between-year variation in germination cueing, water limitation or competitive suppression is poorly understood.We used demographic monitoring and population models to examine how three seed banking, rare annual plants of the California Channel Islands respond to natural variation in precipitation and their competitive environments. Island plants are particularly threatened by climate change because their current ranges are unlikely to overlap regions that are climatically favourable in the future.Species showed 9 to 100-fold between-year variation in plant density over the 5–12 years of censusing, including a severe drought and a wet El Niño year. During the drought, population sizes were low for all species. However, even in non-drought years, population sizes and per capita growth rates showed considerable temporal variation, variation that was uncorrelated with total rainfall. These population fluctuations were instead correlated with the temperature after the first major storm event of the season, a germination cue for annual plants.Temporal variation in the density of the focal species was uncorrelated with the total vegetative cover in the surrounding community, suggesting that variation in competitive environments does not strongly determine population fluctuations. At the same time, the uncorrelated responses of the focal species and their competitors to environmental variation may favour persistence via the storage effect.Population growth rate analyses suggested differential endangerment of the focal annuals. Elasticity analyses and life table response experiments indicated that variation in germination has the same potential as the seeds produced per germinant to drive variation in population growth rates, but only the former was clearly related to rainfall.Synthesis. Our work suggests that future changes in the timing and temperatures associated with the first major rains, acting through germination, may more strongly affect population persistence than changes in season-long rainfall.

Host persistence or extinction from emerging infectious disease: insights from white-nose syndrome in endemic and invading regions

PubMed Central

Hoyt, Joseph R.; Langwig, Kate E.; Sun, Keping; Lu, Guanjun; Parise, Katy L.; Jiang, Tinglei; Foster, Jeffrey T.; Feng, Jiang; Kilpatrick, A. Marm

2016-01-01

Predicting species' fates following the introduction of a novel pathogen is a significant and growing problem in conservation. Comparing disease dynamics between introduced and endemic regions can offer insight into which naive hosts will persist or go extinct, with disease acting as a filter on host communities. We examined four hypothesized mechanisms for host–pathogen persistence by comparing host infection patterns and environmental reservoirs for Pseudogymnoascus destructans (the causative agent of white-nose syndrome) in Asia, an endemic region, and North America, where the pathogen has recently invaded. Although colony sizes of bats and hibernacula temperatures were very similar, both infection prevalence and fungal loads were much lower on bats and in the environment in Asia than North America. These results indicate that transmission intensity and pathogen growth are lower in Asia, likely due to higher host resistance to pathogen growth in this endemic region, and not due to host tolerance, lower transmission due to smaller populations, or lower environmentally driven pathogen growth rate. Disease filtering also appears to be favouring initially resistant species in North America. More broadly, determining the mechanisms allowing species persistence in endemic regions can help identify species at greater risk of extinction in introduced regions, and determine the consequences for disease dynamics and host–pathogen coevolution. PMID:26962138

Timing and severity of immunizing diseases in rabbits is controlled by seasonal matching of host and pathogen dynamics

PubMed Central

Wells, Konstans; Brook, Barry W.; Lacy, Robert C.; Mutze, Greg J.; Peacock, David E.; Sinclair, Ron G.; Schwensow, Nina; Cassey, Phillip; O'Hara, Robert B.; Fordham, Damien A.

2015-01-01

Infectious diseases can exert a strong influence on the dynamics of host populations, but it remains unclear why such disease-mediated control only occurs under particular environmental conditions. We used 16 years of detailed field data on invasive European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in Australia, linked to individual-based stochastic models and Bayesian approximations, to test whether (i) mortality associated with rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) is driven primarily by seasonal matches/mismatches between demographic rates and epidemiological dynamics and (ii) delayed infection (arising from insusceptibility and maternal antibodies in juveniles) are important factors in determining disease severity and local population persistence of rabbits. We found that both the timing of reproduction and exposure to viruses drove recurrent seasonal epidemics of RHD. Protection conferred by insusceptibility and maternal antibodies controlled seasonal disease outbreaks by delaying infection; this could have also allowed escape from disease. The persistence of local populations was a stochastic outcome of recovery rates from both RHD and myxomatosis. If susceptibility to RHD is delayed, myxomatosis will have a pronounced effect on population extirpation when the two viruses coexist. This has important implications for wildlife management, because it is likely that such seasonal interplay and disease dynamics has a strong effect on long-term population viability for many species. PMID:25566883

Disturbance affects short-term facilitation, but not long-term saturation, of exotic plant invasion in New Zealand forest

PubMed Central

Spence, Laura A.; Ross, Joshua V.; Wiser, Susan K.; Allen, Robert B.; Coomes, David A.

2011-01-01

We investigate the spread of an exotic herb, Hieracium lepidulum, into a New Zealand Nothofagus forest with the aim of understanding how stand-development of tree populations, propagule pressure and invader persistence, affect invasion across the landscape and within communities. Using data repeatedly collected over 35 years, from 250 locations, we parametrize continuous-time Markov chain models and use these models to examine future projections of the invasion under a range of hypothetical scenarios. We found that the probability of invasion into a stand was relatively high following canopy disturbance and that local abundance of Hieracium was promoted by minor disturbances. However, model predictions extrapolated 45 years into the future show that neither the rate of landscape-level invasion, nor local population growth of Hieracium, was affected much by changing the frequency of canopy disturbance events. Instead, invasion levels were strongly affected by the ability of Hieracium to persist in the understorey following forest canopy closure, and by propagule supply from streams, forest edges and plants already established within the stand. Our results show that disturbance frequency has surprisingly little influence on the long-term trajectory of invasion, while invader persistence strongly determines invasion patterns. PMID:20980298

Properties of the tick-borne encephalitis virus population during persistent infection of ixodid ticks and tick cell lines.

PubMed

Belova, Oxana A; Litov, Alexander G; Kholodilov, Ivan S; Kozlovskaya, Liubov I; Bell-Sakyi, Lesley; Romanova, Lidiya Iu; Karganova, Galina G

2017-10-01

Tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) is the causative agent of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), a vector-borne zoonotic neuroinfection. For successful circulation in natural foci the virus has to survive in the vector for a long period of time. Information about the effect of long-term infection of ticks on properties of the viral population is of great importance. In recent years, changes in the eco-epidemiology of TBEV due to changes in distribution of ixodid ticks have been observed. These changes in TBEV-endemic areas could result in a shift of the main tick vector species, which in turn may lead to changes in properties of the virus. In the present study we evaluated the selective pressure on the TBEV population during persistent infection of various species of ticks and tick cell lines. TBEV effectively replicated and formed persistent infection in ticks and tick cell lines of the vector species (Ixodes spp.), potential vectors (Dermacentor spp.) and non-vector ticks (Hyalomma spp.). During TBEV persistence in Ixodes and Dermacentor ticks, properties of the viral population remained virtually unchanged. In contrast, persistent TBEV infection of tick cell lines from both vector and non-vector ticks favoured selection of viral variants with low neuroinvasiveness for laboratory mice and substitutions in the E protein that increased local positive charge of the virion. Thus, selective pressure on viral population may differ in ticks and tick cell lines during persistent infection. Nevertheless, virus variants with properties of the original strain adapted to mouse CNS were not eliminated from the viral population during long-term persistence of TBEV in ticks and tick cell lines. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Social Determinants of LGBT Cancer Health Inequities.

PubMed

Matthews, Alicia K; Breen, Elizabeth; Kittiteerasack, Priyoth

2018-02-01

To describe the extant literature on social determinants of health as they relate to the cancer disparities and to highlight the research findings relating to lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) populations. Published scientific literature and clinical literature, and published reports from the World Health Organization and US Department of Health and Human Services. The larger literature on health inequities is moving beyond individual-level predictors of risk to evaluate the influence of social determinants of health on the persistent health inequalities in a population. As it has for other groups, additional research into social determinants of health for LGBT persons of color may play an important role in identifying and reducing cancer inequities for this group. Increased awareness of the factors that contribute to health inequities for the LGBT population may provide insight into improving patient-provider relationships with LGBT patients. A large body of experiential and clinical knowledge positions nurses to conduct meaningful research to expand the current understanding of the social determinants of LGBT cancer health inequities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Allometric scaling enhances stability in complex food webs.

PubMed

Brose, Ulrich; Williams, Richard J; Martinez, Neo D

2006-11-01

Classic local stability theory predicts that complex ecological networks are unstable and are unlikely to persist despite empiricists' abundant documentation of such complexity in nature. This contradiction has puzzled biologists for decades. While some have explored how stability may be achieved in small modules of a few interacting species, rigorous demonstrations of how large complex and ecologically realistic networks dynamically persist remain scarce and inadequately understood. Here, we help fill this void by combining structural models of complex food webs with nonlinear bioenergetic models of population dynamics parameterized by biological rates that are allometrically scaled to populations' average body masses. Increasing predator-prey body mass ratios increase population persistence up to a saturation level that is reached by invertebrate and ectotherm vertebrate predators when being 10 or 100 times larger than their prey respectively. These values are corroborated by empirical predator-prey body mass ratios from a global data base. Moreover, negative effects of diversity (i.e. species richness) on stability (i.e. population persistence) become neutral or positive relationships at these empirical ratios. These results demonstrate that the predator-prey body mass ratios found in nature may be key to enabling persistence of populations in complex food webs and stabilizing the diversity of natural ecosystems.

A whole-plant screening test to identify genotypes with superior freezing tolerance.

PubMed

Bertrand, Annick; Castonguay, Yves; Bourassa, Josée

2014-01-01

Freezing tolerance is a determinant factor of persistence of perennials grown in northern climate. Selection for winterhardiness in field nurseries is difficult because of the unpredictability of occurrence of test winters allowing the identification of hardy genotypes. Here we describe a whole-plant assay entirely performed indoor in growth chambers and walk-in freezers to identify genotypes with superior tolerance to freezing within populations of open pollinated species. Three successive freezing stresses are applied to progressively eliminate 90 % of the population and to retain only the 10 % best performing genotypes. This approach can be used to generate recurrently selected populations more tolerant to freezing in different species.

Temperament affects sympathetic nervous function in a normal population.

PubMed

Kim, Bora; Lee, Jae-Hon; Kang, Eun-Ho; Yu, Bum-Hee

2012-09-01

Although specific temperaments have been known to be related to autonomic nervous function in some psychiatric disorders, there are few studies that have examined the relationship between temperaments and autonomic nervous function in a normal population. In this study, we examined the effect of temperament on the sympathetic nervous function in a normal population. Sixty eight healthy subjects participated in the present study. Temperament was assessed using the Korean version of the Cloninger Temperament and Character Inventory (TCI). Autonomic nervous function was determined by measuring skin temperature in a resting state, which was recorded for 5 minutes from the palmar surface of the left 5th digit using a thermistor secured with a Velcro® band. Pearson's correlation analysis and multiple linear regression were used to examine the relationship between temperament and skin temperature. A higher harm avoidance score was correlated with a lower skin temperature (i.e. an increased sympathetic tone; r=-0.343, p=0.004) whereas a higher persistence score was correlated with a higher skin temperature (r=0.433, p=0.001). Hierarchical linear regression analysis revealed that harm avoidance was able to predict the variance of skin temperature independently, with a variance of 7.1% after controlling for sex, blood pressure and state anxiety and persistence was the factor predicting the variance of skin temperature with a variance of 5.0%. These results suggest that high harm avoidance is related to an increased sympathetic nervous function whereas high persistence is related to decreased sympathetic nervous function in a normal population.

Temperament Affects Sympathetic Nervous Function in a Normal Population

PubMed Central

Kim, Bora; Lee, Jae-Hon; Kang, Eun-Ho

2012-01-01

Objective Although specific temperaments have been known to be related to autonomic nervous function in some psychiatric disorders, there are few studies that have examined the relationship between temperaments and autonomic nervous function in a normal population. In this study, we examined the effect of temperament on the sympathetic nervous function in a normal population. Methods Sixty eight healthy subjects participated in the present study. Temperament was assessed using the Korean version of the Cloninger Temperament and Character Inventory (TCI). Autonomic nervous function was determined by measuring skin temperature in a resting state, which was recorded for 5 minutes from the palmar surface of the left 5th digit using a thermistor secured with a Velcro® band. Pearson's correlation analysis and multiple linear regression were used to examine the relationship between temperament and skin temperature. Results A higher harm avoidance score was correlated with a lower skin temperature (i.e. an increased sympathetic tone; r=-0.343, p=0.004) whereas a higher persistence score was correlated with a higher skin temperature (r=0.433, p=0.001). Hierarchical linear regression analysis revealed that harm avoidance was able to predict the variance of skin temperature independently, with a variance of 7.1% after controlling for sex, blood pressure and state anxiety and persistence was the factor predicting the variance of skin temperature with a variance of 5.0%. Conclusion These results suggest that high harm avoidance is related to an increased sympathetic nervous function whereas high persistence is related to decreased sympathetic nervous function in a normal population. PMID:22993530

Hydrology of malaria: Model development and application to a Sahelian village

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bomblies, Arne; Duchemin, Jean-Bernard; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2008-12-01

We present a coupled hydrology and entomology model for the mechanistic simulation of local-scale response of malaria transmission to hydrological and climatological determinants in semiarid, desert fringe environments. The model is applied to the Sahel village of Banizoumbou, Niger, to predict interannual variability in malaria vector mosquito populations that lead to variations in malaria transmission. Using a high-resolution, small-scale distributed hydrology model that incorporates remotely sensed data for land cover and topography, we simulate the formation and persistence of the pools constituting the primary breeding habitat of Anopheles gambiae s.l. mosquitoes, the principal regional malaria vector mosquitoes. An agent-based mosquito population model is coupled to the distributed hydrology model, with aquatic-stage and adult-stage components. Through a dependence of aquatic-stage mosquito development and adult emergence on pool persistence, we model small-scale hydrology as a dominant control of mosquito abundance. For each individual adult mosquito, the model tracks attributes relevant to population dynamics and malaria transmission, which are updated as mosquitoes interact with their environment, humans, and animals. Weekly field observations were made in 2005 and 2006. A 16% increase in rainfall between the two years was accompanied by a 132% increase in mosquito abundance between 2005 and 2006. The model reproduces mosquito population variability at seasonal and interannual timescales and highlights individual pool persistence as a dominant control. Future developments of the presented model can be used in the evaluation of impacts of climate change on malaria, as well as the a priori evaluation of environmental management-based interventions.

Taxonomic structure and monitoring of the dominant population of lactic acid bacteria during wheat flour sourdough type I propagation using Lactobacillus sanfranciscensis starters.

PubMed

Siragusa, Sonya; Di Cagno, Raffaella; Ercolini, Danilo; Minervini, Fabio; Gobbetti, Marco; De Angelis, Maria

2009-02-01

The structure and stability of the dominant lactic acid bacterium population were assessed during wheat flour sourdough type I propagation by using singly nine strains of Lactobacillus sanfranciscensis. Under back-slopping propagation with wheat flour type 0 F114, cell numbers of presumptive lactic acid bacteria varied slightly between and within starters. As determined by randomly amplified polymorphic DNA-PCR and restriction endonuclease analysis-pulsed-field gel electrophoresis analyses, only three (LS8, LS14, and LS44) starters dominated throughout 10 days of propagation. The others progressively decreased to less than 3 log CFU g(-1). Partial sequence analysis of the 16S rRNA and recA genes and PCR-denaturating gradient gel electrophoresis analysis using the rpoB gene allowed identification of Weissella confusa, Lactobacillus sanfranciscensis, Lactobacillus plantarum, Lactobacillus rossiae, Lactobacillus brevis, Lactococcus lactis subsp. lactis, Pediococcus pentosaceus, and Lactobacillus spp. as the dominant species of the raw wheat flour. At the end of propagation, one autochthonous strain of L. sanfranciscensis was found in all the sourdoughs. Except for L. brevis, strains of the above species were variously found in the mature sourdoughs. Persistent starters were found in association with other biotypes of L. sanfranciscensis and with W. confusa or L. plantarum. Sourdoughs were characterized for acidification, quotient of fermentation, free amino acids, and community-level catabolic profiles by USING Biolog 96-well Eco microplates. In particular, catabolic profiles of sourdoughs containing persistent starters behaved similarly and were clearly differentiated from the others. The three persistent starters were further used for the production of sourdoughs and propagated by using another wheat flour whose lactic acid bacterium population in part differed from the previous one. Also, in this case all three starter strains persisted during propagation.

Persistence of Antipsychotic Treatment in Elderly Dementia Patients: A Retrospective, Population-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Mast, Gavin; Fernandes, Kimberly; Tadrous, Mina; Martins, Diana; Herrmann, Nathan; Gomes, Tara

2016-06-01

Antipsychotics are commonly used to manage behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia. Concerns over their safety and efficacy in this role have resulted in antipsychotics typically being recommended for short-term usage only when used among dementia patients. However, there is little work examining the duration of antipsychotic treatment in the elderly dementia patient population. To determine the persistence of use of antipsychotics in elderly dementia patients and the role of dose on therapy duration. A retrospective, population-based cohort study using administrative data, including dispensing records from a provincial public drug program, from Ontario, Canada between 2009 and 2012. Elderly dementia patients newly initiated onto antipsychotics were followed until drug discontinuation, death, 2-year follow-up, or end of study. Competing risk analysis was performed to determine time to discontinuation, stratified by categories of initial dose. After 2 years 49.1 % of the cohort ( N  = 22,927 of 46,695) had discontinued treatment. When stratified by dose, the high-dose group (51.1 % discontinued) discontinued more frequently than the medium- (48.7 % discontinued) and low- (47.5 % discontinued) dose groups ( p  < 0.0001). Approximately half of elderly dementia patients treated with antipsychotics discontinue within 2 years, with those on higher doses more likely to discontinue. However, the number of patients remaining on therapy represents a serious public health concern.

Persistent organic pollutants in maternal blood plasma and breast milk from Russian arctic populations.

PubMed

Klopov, V; Odland, J O; Burkow, I C

1998-10-01

Under the auspices of Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), a Russian-Norwegian co-operation project was established to assess the exposure of delivering women to persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in Arctic areas of Russia. In the period 1993-95 blood and breast milk samples were collected from 94 delivering women in Yamal and Tajmyr Autonomous Regions of Siberia. Concentrations of chlorinated pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were determined by high resolution gas chromatography with electron capture detection. The POP levels in maternal plasma among the non-indigenous women were higher than the native population, especially in total PCB, HCHs (hexachlorocyclohexanes) and the DDT-group. The dietary questionnaires showed that the non-indigenous populations consumed considerably less local food items like reindeer meat and fresh water fish. There was no correlation between local food consumption and elevated levels of pollutants. Even if the indigenous groups had lower concentrations of the most important pollutants than the non-indigenous population, they were still higher than the levels measured in the Scandinavian countries of the AMAP-study and up to levels of medical concern. The most important sources of organic pollutants for the Russian Arctic populations of Yamal and Tajmyr seems to be imported food from other areas of Russia and local use of pesticides. It must be a high priority concern to further elucidate these trends and initiate prophylactic measures for the exposed population groups.

Modelling the dynamics of feral alfalfa populations and its management implications.

PubMed

Bagavathiannan, Muthukumar V; Begg, Graham S; Gulden, Robert H; Van Acker, Rene C

2012-01-01

Feral populations of cultivated crops can pose challenges to novel trait confinement within agricultural landscapes. Simulation models can be helpful in investigating the underlying dynamics of feral populations and determining suitable management options. We developed a stage-structured matrix population model for roadside feral alfalfa populations occurring in southern Manitoba, Canada. The model accounted for the existence of density-dependence and recruitment subsidy in feral populations. We used the model to investigate the long-term dynamics of feral alfalfa populations, and to evaluate the effectiveness of simulated management strategies such as herbicide application and mowing in controlling feral alfalfa. Results suggest that alfalfa populations occurring in roadside habitats can be persistent and less likely to go extinct under current roadverge management scenarios. Management attempts focused on controlling adult plants alone can be counterproductive due to the presence of density-dependent effects. Targeted herbicide application, which can achieve complete control of seedlings, rosettes and established plants, will be an effective strategy, but the seedbank population may contribute to new recruits. In regions where roadside mowing is regularly practiced, devising a timely mowing strategy (early- to mid-August for southern Manitoba), one that can totally prevent seed production, will be a feasible option for managing feral alfalfa populations. Feral alfalfa populations can be persistent in roadside habitats. Timely mowing or regular targeted herbicide application will be effective in managing feral alfalfa populations and limit feral-population-mediated gene flow in alfalfa. However, in the context of novel trait confinement, the extent to which feral alfalfa populations need to be managed will be dictated by the tolerance levels established by specific production systems for specific traits. The modelling framework outlined in this paper could be applied to other perennial herbaceous plants with similar life-history characteristics.

Assessing Motivation of Collegiate African American Males in a Rural Area of East Texas

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Green, Calvin Earl

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate achievement factors of African American males on a college campus in the state of Texas, primarily a private 4-year college that serves a predominantly African American student population. The researcher used a case study approach to determine factors that affect the persistence of these college-aged…

Pre-College Career Guidance and Persistence at a Small Private University in Tennessee

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carson, Raymond D.

2011-01-01

This mixed methods study was designed to determine the type and quality of pre-college career guidance experiences of college freshmen and the impact of those experiences on student performance and retention. This study was limited to first time freshmen at a small private university in Tennessee. The population was 46% male and 54% female from 6…

Poverty and elimination of urban health disparities: challenge and opportunity.

PubMed

Thomas, Stephen B; Quinn, Sandra Crouse

2008-01-01

The aim of this article is to examine the intersection of race and poverty, two critical factors fueling persistent racial and ethnic health disparities among urban populations. From the morass of social determinants that shape the health of racial and ethnic communities in our urban centers, we will offer promising practices and potential solutions to eliminating racial and ethnic health disparities.

Latent Trajectories of Common Mental Health Disorder Risk Across 3 Decades of Adulthood in a Population-Based Cohort.

PubMed

Paksarian, Diana; Cui, Lihong; Angst, Jules; Ajdacic-Gross, Vladeta; Rössler, Wulf; Merikangas, Kathleen R

2016-10-01

Epidemiologic evidence indicates that most of the general population will experience a mental health disorder at some point in their lives. However, few prospective population-based studies have estimated trajectories of risk for mental disorders from young through middle adulthood to estimate the proportion of individuals who experience persistent mental disorder across this age period. To describe the proportion of the population who experience persistent mental disorder across adulthood and to estimate latent trajectories of disorder risk across this age period. A population-based, prospective cohort study was conducted between 1979 and 2008 in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland. A stratified random sample of 591 Swiss citizens was enrolled in 1978 at ages 19 years (men) and 20 years (women); 7 interviews were performed during a 29-year period. Men were sampled from military enrollment records and women from electoral records. From those initially enrolled, participants with high levels of psychiatric symptoms were oversampled for follow-up. Data analysis was performed from July 28, 2015, to June 8, 2016. Latent trajectories, estimated using growth mixture modeling, of past-year mood/anxiety disorder (ie, major depressive episode, phobias, panic, generalized anxiety disorder, and obsessive-compulsive disorder), substance use disorder (ie, drug abuse or dependence and alcohol abuse or dependence), and any mental disorder (ie, any of the above) assessed during in-person semistructured interviews at each wave. Diagnoses were based on DSM-III, DSM-III-R, and DSM-IV criteria. Of the 591 participants at baseline, 299 (50.6%) were female. Persistent mental health disorder across multiple study waves was rare. Among 252 individuals (42.6%) who participated in all 7 study waves, only 1.2% met criteria for disorder every time. Growth mixture modeling identified 3 classes of risk for any disorder across adulthood: low (estimated prevalence, 40.0%; 95% CI, -8.7% to 88.9%), increasing-decreasing (estimated prevalence, 15.3%; 95% CI, 1.0% to 29.6%), and increasing (estimated prevalence, 44.7%; 95% CI, -0.9% to 90.1%). Although no classes were characterized by persistently high disorder risk, for those in the increasing-decreasing class, risk was high from the late 20s to early 40s. Sex-specific models indicated 4 trajectory classes for women but only 3 for men. Persistently high mental health disorder risk across 3 decades of adulthood was rare in this population-based sample. Identifying early determinants of sex-specific risk trajectories would benefit prevention efforts.

Evolutionary dynamics for persistent cooperation in structured populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yan; Liu, Xinsheng; Claussen, Jens Christian; Guo, Wanlin

2015-06-01

The emergence and maintenance of cooperative behavior is a fascinating topic in evolutionary biology and social science. The public goods game (PGG) is a paradigm for exploring cooperative behavior. In PGG, the total resulting payoff is divided equally among all participants. This feature still leads to the dominance of defection without substantially magnifying the public good by a multiplying factor. Much effort has been made to explain the evolution of cooperative strategies, including a recent model in which only a portion of the total benefit is shared by all the players through introducing a new strategy named persistent cooperation. A persistent cooperator is a contributor who is willing to pay a second cost to retrieve the remaining portion of the payoff contributed by themselves. In a previous study, this model was analyzed in the framework of well-mixed populations. This paper focuses on discussing the persistent cooperation in lattice-structured populations. The evolutionary dynamics of the structured populations consisting of three types of competing players (pure cooperators, defectors, and persistent cooperators) are revealed by theoretical analysis and numerical simulations. In particular, the approximate expressions of fixation probabilities for strategies are derived on one-dimensional lattices. The phase diagrams of stationary states, and the evolution of frequencies and spatial patterns for strategies are illustrated on both one-dimensional and square lattices by simulations. Our results are consistent with the general observation that, at least in most situations, a structured population facilitates the evolution of cooperation. Specifically, here we find that the existence of persistent cooperators greatly suppresses the spreading of defectors under more relaxed conditions in structured populations compared to that obtained in well-mixed populations.

Non-additive effects of pollen limitation and self-incompatibility reduce plant reproductive success and population viability

PubMed Central

Young, Andrew G.; Broadhurst, Linda M.; Thrall, Peter H.

2012-01-01

Background and Aims Mating system is a primary determinant of the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of wild plant populations. Pollen limitation and loss of self-incompatibility genotypes can both act independently to reduce seed set and these effects are commonly observed in fragmented landscapes. This study used a simulation modelling approach to assess the interacting effects of these two processes on plant reproductive performance and population viability for a range of pollination likelihood, self-incompatibility systems and S-allele richness conditions. Methods A spatially explicit, individual-based, genetic and demographic simulation model parameterized to represent a generic self-incompatible, short-lived perennial herb was used to conduct simulation experiments in which pollination probability, self-incompatibility type (gametophytic and sporophytic) and S-allele richness were systematically varied in combination to assess their independent and interacting effects on the demographic response variables of mate availability, seed set, population size and population persistence. Key Results Joint effects of reduced pollination probability and low S-allele richness were greater than independent effects for all demographic response variables except population persistence under high pollinator service (>50 %). At intermediate values of 15–25 % pollination probability, non-linear interactions with S-allele richness generated significant reductions in population performance beyond those expected by the simple additive effect of each independently. This was due to the impacts of reduced effective population size on the ability of populations to retain S alleles and maintain mate availability. Across a limited set of pollination and S-allele conditions (P = 0·15 and S = 20) populations with gametophytic SI showed reduced S-allele erosion relative to those with sporophytic SI, but this had limited effects on individual fecundity and translated into only modest increases in population persistence. Conclusions Interactions between pollen limitation and loss of S alleles have the potential to significantly reduce the viability of populations of a few hundred plants. Population decline may occur more rapidly than expected when pollination probabilities drop below 25 % and S alleles are fewer than 20 due to non-additive interactions. These are likely to be common conditions experienced by plants in small populations in fragmented landscapes and are also those under which differences in response between gameptophytic and sporophtyic systems are observed. PMID:22184620

Non-additive effects of pollen limitation and self-incompatibility reduce plant reproductive success and population viability.

PubMed

Young, Andrew G; Broadhurst, Linda M; Thrall, Peter H

2012-02-01

Mating system is a primary determinant of the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of wild plant populations. Pollen limitation and loss of self-incompatibility genotypes can both act independently to reduce seed set and these effects are commonly observed in fragmented landscapes. This study used a simulation modelling approach to assess the interacting effects of these two processes on plant reproductive performance and population viability for a range of pollination likelihood, self-incompatibility systems and S-allele richness conditions. A spatially explicit, individual-based, genetic and demographic simulation model parameterized to represent a generic self-incompatible, short-lived perennial herb was used to conduct simulation experiments in which pollination probability, self-incompatibility type (gametophytic and sporophytic) and S-allele richness were systematically varied in combination to assess their independent and interacting effects on the demographic response variables of mate availability, seed set, population size and population persistence. Joint effects of reduced pollination probability and low S-allele richness were greater than independent effects for all demographic response variables except population persistence under high pollinator service (>50 %). At intermediate values of 15-25 % pollination probability, non-linear interactions with S-allele richness generated significant reductions in population performance beyond those expected by the simple additive effect of each independently. This was due to the impacts of reduced effective population size on the ability of populations to retain S alleles and maintain mate availability. Across a limited set of pollination and S-allele conditions (P = 0·15 and S = 20) populations with gametophytic SI showed reduced S-allele erosion relative to those with sporophytic SI, but this had limited effects on individual fecundity and translated into only modest increases in population persistence. Interactions between pollen limitation and loss of S alleles have the potential to significantly reduce the viability of populations of a few hundred plants. Population decline may occur more rapidly than expected when pollination probabilities drop below 25 % and S alleles are fewer than 20 due to non-additive interactions. These are likely to be common conditions experienced by plants in small populations in fragmented landscapes and are also those under which differences in response between gameptophytic and sporophtyic systems are observed.

Setting population targets for mammals using body mass as a predictor of population persistence.

PubMed

Hilbers, Jelle P; Santini, Luca; Visconti, Piero; Schipper, Aafke M; Pinto, Cecilia; Rondinini, Carlo; Huijbregts, Mark A J

2017-04-01

Conservation planning and biodiversity assessments need quantitative targets to optimize planning options and assess the adequacy of current species protection. However, targets aiming at persistence require population-specific data, which limit their use in favor of fixed and nonspecific targets, likely leading to unequal distribution of conservation efforts among species. We devised a method to derive equitable population targets; that is, quantitative targets of population size that ensure equal probabilities of persistence across a set of species and that can be easily inferred from species-specific traits. In our method, we used models of population dynamics across a range of life-history traits related to species' body mass to estimate minimum viable population targets. We applied our method to a range of body masses of mammals, from 2 g to 3825 kg. The minimum viable population targets decreased asymptotically with increasing body mass and were on the same order of magnitude as minimum viable population estimates from species- and context-specific studies. Our approach provides a compromise between pragmatic, nonspecific population targets and detailed context-specific estimates of population viability for which only limited data are available. It enables a first estimation of species-specific population targets based on a readily available trait and thus allows setting equitable targets for population persistence in large-scale and multispecies conservation assessments and planning. © 2016 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

Probabilistic measures of persistence and extinction in measles (meta)populations.

PubMed

Gunning, Christian E; Wearing, Helen J

2013-08-01

Persistence and extinction are fundamental processes in ecological systems that are difficult to accurately measure due to stochasticity and incomplete observation. Moreover, these processes operate on multiple scales, from individual populations to metapopulations. Here, we examine an extensive new data set of measles case reports and associated demographics in pre-vaccine era US cities, alongside a classic England & Wales data set. We first infer the per-population quasi-continuous distribution of log incidence. We then use stochastic, spatially implicit metapopulation models to explore the frequency of rescue events and apparent extinctions. We show that, unlike critical community size, the inferred distributions account for observational processes, allowing direct comparisons between metapopulations. The inferred distributions scale with population size. We use these scalings to estimate extinction boundary probabilities. We compare these predictions with measurements in individual populations and random aggregates of populations, highlighting the importance of medium-sized populations in metapopulation persistence. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Defining Attributes and Metrics of Effective Research Mentoring Relationships

PubMed Central

Byars-Winston, Angela; Branchaw, Janet; Hurtado, Sylvia; Eagan, Kevin

2016-01-01

Despite evidence of mentoring’s importance in training researchers, studies to date have not yet determined which mentoring relationships have the most impact and what specific factors in those mentoring relationships contribute to key outcomes, such as the commitment to and persistence in research career paths for emerging researchers from diverse populations. Efforts to broaden participation and persistence in biomedical research careers require an understanding of why and how mentoring relationships work and their impact, not only to research training but also to promoting career advancement. This paper proposes core attributes of effective mentoring relationships, as supported by the literature and suggested by theoretical models of academic persistence. In addition, both existing and developing metrics for measuring the effectiveness of these attributes within mentoring relationships across diverse groups are presented, as well as preliminary data on these metrics from the authors’ work. PMID:27062425

De Novo Emergence of Genetically Resistant Mutants of Mycobacterium tuberculosis from the Persistence Phase Cells Formed against Antituberculosis Drugs In Vitro

PubMed Central

Sebastian, Jees; Swaminath, Sharmada; Nair, Rashmi Ravindran; Jakkala, Kishor; Pradhan, Atul

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Bacterial persisters are a subpopulation of cells that can tolerate lethal concentrations of antibiotics. However, the possibility of the emergence of genetically resistant mutants from antibiotic persister cell populations, upon continued exposure to lethal concentrations of antibiotics, remained unexplored. In the present study, we found that Mycobacterium tuberculosis cells exposed continuously to lethal concentrations of rifampin (RIF) or moxifloxacin (MXF) for prolonged durations showed killing, RIF/MXF persistence, and regrowth phases. RIF-resistant or MXF-resistant mutants carrying clinically relevant mutations in the rpoB or gyrA gene, respectively, were found to emerge at high frequency from the RIF persistence phase population. A Luria-Delbruck fluctuation experiment using RIF-exposed M. tuberculosis cells showed that the rpoB mutants were not preexistent in the population but were formed de novo from the RIF persistence phase population. The RIF persistence phase M. tuberculosis cells carried elevated levels of hydroxyl radical that inflicted extensive genome-wide mutations, generating RIF-resistant mutants. Consistent with the elevated levels of hydroxyl radical-mediated genome-wide random mutagenesis, MXF-resistant M. tuberculosis gyrA de novo mutants could be selected from the RIF persistence phase cells. Thus, unlike previous studies, which showed emergence of genetically resistant mutants upon exposure of bacteria for short durations to sublethal concentrations of antibiotics, our study demonstrates that continuous prolonged exposure of M. tuberculosis cells to lethal concentrations of an antibiotic generates antibiotic persistence phase cells that form a reservoir for the generation of genetically resistant mutants to the same antibiotic or another antibiotic. These findings may have clinical significance in the emergence of drug-resistant tubercle bacilli. PMID:27895008

Divergence in sink contributions to population persistence (journal article)

EPA Science Inventory

Population sinks present unique conservation challenges. The loss of individuals in sinks can compromise persistence; but conversely, sinks can improve viability by improving connectivity and facilitating the recolonization of vacant sources. To assess the contribution of sinks t...

Quantitative assessment of the importance of phenotypic plasticity in adaptation to climate change in wild bird populations.

PubMed

Vedder, Oscar; Bouwhuis, Sandra; Sheldon, Ben C

2013-07-01

Predictions about the fate of species or populations under climate change scenarios typically neglect adaptive evolution and phenotypic plasticity, the two major mechanisms by which organisms can adapt to changing local conditions. As a consequence, we have little understanding of the scope for organisms to track changing environments by in situ adaptation. Here, we use a detailed individual-specific long-term population study of great tits (Parus major) breeding in Wytham Woods, Oxford, UK to parameterise a mechanistic model and thus directly estimate the rate of environmental change to which in situ adaptation is possible. Using the effect of changes in early spring temperature on temporal synchrony between birds and a critical food resource, we focus in particular on the contribution of phenotypic plasticity to population persistence. Despite using conservative estimates for evolutionary and reproductive potential, our results suggest little risk of population extinction under projected local temperature change; however, this conclusion relies heavily on the extent to which phenotypic plasticity tracks the changing environment. Extrapolating the model to a broad range of life histories in birds suggests that the importance of phenotypic plasticity for adjustment to projected rates of temperature change increases with slower life histories, owing to lower evolutionary potential. Understanding the determinants and constraints on phenotypic plasticity in natural populations is thus crucial for characterising the risks that rapidly changing environments pose for the persistence of such populations.

Disease-emergence dynamics and control in a socially-structured wildlife species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pepin, Kim M.; Vercauteren, Kurt C.

2016-04-01

Once a pathogen is introduced in a population, key factors governing rate of spread include contact structure, supply of susceptible individuals and pathogen life-history. We examined the interplay of these factors on emergence dynamics and efficacy of disease prevention and response. We contrasted transmission dynamics of livestock viruses with different life-histories in hypothetical populations of feral swine with different contact structures (homogenous, metapopulation, spatial and network). Persistence probability was near 0 for the FMDV-like case under a wide range of parameter values and contact structures, while persistence was probable for the CSFV-like case. There were no sets of conditions where the FMDV-like pathogen persisted in every stochastic simulation. Even when population growth rates were up to 300% annually, the FMDV-like pathogen persisted in <25% of simulations regardless of transmission probabilities and contact structure. For networks and spatial contact structure, persistence probability of the FMDV-like pathogen was always <10%. Because of its low persistence probability, even very early response to the FMDV-like pathogen in feral swine was unwarranted while response to the CSFV-like pathogen was generally effective. When pre-emergence culling of feral swine caused population declines, it was effective at decreasing outbreak size of both diseases by ≥80%.

A retrospective study of canine persistent nasal disease: 80 cases (1998–2003)

PubMed Central

Meler, Erika; Dunn, Marilyn; Lecuyer, Manon

2008-01-01

Persistent canine nasal disease is a common complaint in small animal practice; however, an etiologic diagnosis can be difficult to establish. The aim of this retrospective study was to determine the percentage of cases for which the etiology was determined in our hospital population. Medical records from 80 dogs met the criteria of inclusion in the study. Nonspecific rhinitis was identified in 23.7% of cases. Other diagnoses were neoplasia (15.0%), fungal infection (nasal aspergillosis) (8.7%), cleft palate (8.7%), periodontal disease (4.0%), parasites (1.3%), foreign body (1.3%), and primary bacterial disease (1.3%). A definitive diagnosis could not be established in 36.3% of cases. Dogs with neoplastic and mycotic diseases often presented with severe radiographic and rhinoscopic lesions. Despite a systematic approach, numerous cases went undiagnosed. The use of advanced imaging should increase our ability to obtain an etiologic diagnosis in canine nasal disease. PMID:18320982

A retrospective study of canine persistent nasal disease: 80 cases (1998-2003).

PubMed

Meler, Erika; Dunn, Marilyn; Lecuyer, Manon

2008-01-01

Persistent canine nasal disease is a common complaint in small animal practice; however, an etiologic diagnosis can be difficult to establish. The aim of this retrospective study was to determine the percentage of cases for which the etiology was determined in our hospital population. Medical records from 80 dogs met the criteria of inclusion in the study. Nonspecific rhinitis was identified in 23.7% of cases. Other diagnoses were neoplasia (15.0%), fungal infection (nasal aspergillosis) (8.7%), cleft palate (8.7%), periodontal disease (4.0%), parasites (1.3%), foreign body (1.3%), and primary bacterial disease (1.3%). A definitive diagnosis could not be established in 36.3% of cases. Dogs with neoplastic and mycotic diseases often presented with severe radiographic and rhinoscopic lesions. Despite a systematic approach, numerous cases went undiagnosed. The use of advanced imaging should increase our ability to obtain an etiologic diagnosis in canine nasal disease.

Civil rights as determinants of public health and racial and ethnic health equity: Health care, education, employment, and housing in the United States.

PubMed

Hahn, R A; Truman, B I; Williams, D R

2018-04-01

This essay examines how civil rights and their implementation have affected and continue to affect the health of racial and ethnic minority populations in the United States. Civil rights are characterized as social determinants of health. A brief review of US history indicates that, particularly for Blacks, Hispanics, and American Indians, the longstanding lack of civil rights is linked with persistent health inequities. Civil rights history since 1950 is explored in four domains-health care, education, employment, and housing. The first three domains show substantial benefits when civil rights are enforced. Discrimination and segregation in housing persist because anti-discrimination civil rights laws have not been well enforced. Enforcement is an essential component for the success of civil rights law. Civil rights and their enforcement may be considered a powerful arena for public health theorizing, research, policy, and action.

Reassessing the Role of Type II Toxin-Antitoxin Systems in Formation of Escherichia coli Type II Persister Cells.

PubMed

Goormaghtigh, Frédéric; Fraikin, Nathan; Putrinš, Marta; Hallaert, Thibaut; Hauryliuk, Vasili; Garcia-Pino, Abel; Sjödin, Andreas; Kasvandik, Sergo; Udekwu, Klas; Tenson, Tanel; Kaldalu, Niilo; Van Melderen, Laurence

2018-06-12

Persistence is a reversible and low-frequency phenomenon allowing a subpopulation of a clonal bacterial population to survive antibiotic treatments. Upon removal of the antibiotic, persister cells resume growth and give rise to viable progeny. Type II toxin-antitoxin (TA) systems were assumed to play a key role in the formation of persister cells in Escherichia coli based on the observation that successive deletions of TA systems decreased persistence frequency. In addition, the model proposed that stochastic fluctuations of (p)ppGpp levels are the basis for triggering activation of TA systems. Cells in which TA systems are activated are thought to enter a dormancy state and therefore survive the antibiotic treatment. Using independently constructed strains and newly designed fluorescent reporters, we reassessed the roles of TA modules in persistence both at the population and single-cell levels. Our data confirm that the deletion of 10 TA systems does not affect persistence to ofloxacin or ampicillin. Moreover, microfluidic experiments performed with a strain reporting the induction of the yefM-yoeB TA system allowed the observation of a small number of type II persister cells that resume growth after removal of ampicillin. However, we were unable to establish a correlation between high fluorescence and persistence, since the fluorescence of persister cells was comparable to that of the bulk of the population and none of the cells showing high fluorescence were able to resume growth upon removal of the antibiotic. Altogether, these data show that there is no direct link between induction of TA systems and persistence to antibiotics. IMPORTANCE Within a growing bacterial population, a small subpopulation of cells is able to survive antibiotic treatment by entering a transient state of dormancy referred to as persistence. Persistence is thought to be the cause of relapsing bacterial infections and is a major public health concern. Type II toxin-antitoxin systems are small modules composed of a toxic protein and an antitoxin protein counteracting the toxin activity. These systems were thought to be pivotal players in persistence until recent developments in the field. Our results demonstrate that previous influential reports had technical flaws and that there is no direct link between induction of TA systems and persistence to antibiotics. Copyright © 2018 Goormaghtigh et al.

High Risk Human Papillomavirus Persistence Among HIV-infected Young Women in South Africa

PubMed Central

Adler, David; Wallace, Melissa; Bennie, Thola; Abar, Beau; Sadeghi, Rokhsanna; Meiring, Tracy; Williamson, Anna-Lise; Bekker, Linda-Gail

2015-01-01

Objectives Persistence of infection with high-risk Human papillomaviruses (HR-HPV) increases the risk of incident and progressive precancerous lesions of the cervix. Rates of HR-HPV persistence have been shown to be increased among HIV-infected adult women, however there is a paucity of literature addressing HPV persistence in the young HIV-infected population. We compared rates of HR-HPV persistence between HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected young women. Methods We obtained self-collected vaginal swabs at six-month intervals from 50 HIV-uninfected and 33 HIV-infected young women recruited through a community youth center (age 17-21 years) and compared rates of HR-HPV persistence. HR-HPV testing was conducted using the Roche’s Linear Array® HPV Test. Results Eighty-three prevalent (upon baseline testing) and incident (upon subsequent testing) individual HR-HPV infections were identified among 43 members of the cohort (23 HIV-uninfected and 20 HIV-infected). At twelve months, 19% of baseline HR-HPV infections continued to be present with a statistically significant difference between HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected participants (4% versus 31%; p=0.01). Conclusions HIV-infected young women in our cohort had a seven-fold increased rate of persistence of HR-HPV overall at 12 months indicating an increased risk for incident and progressive precancerous lesions. Identification of persistent infection with HR-HPV may complement cytological findings in determining the need for colposcopy. PMID:25697074

Sensitization to pets is a major determinant of persistent asthma and new asthma onset in Sweden

PubMed Central

Uddenfeldt, Monica; Janson, Christer; Lampa, Erik

2013-01-01

Introduction Our knowledge about atopy as a longitudinal predictor of asthma is limited. The purpose of this study was to investigate the prognosis of asthma and risk factors for asthma onset, especially sensitization of specific allergens in a population sample. Material and methods A cohort responded to a respiratory questionnaire in 1990 and 2003. At baseline, 2,060 subjects who, in the screening questionnaire, reported respiratory symptoms and 482 controls were investigated with interviews, spirometry, and skin-prick test. A total of 721 asthmatics and 976 subjects without respiratory disease were clinically verified. At follow-up in 2003, 340 subjects with persistent asthma and 186 subjects with asthma remission were identified, while 76 subjects reported new asthma onset. Results Sensitization to pets and a high symptom score were significant determinants of persistent asthma (odds ratio (OR) 3.2 (95% CI 1.9–5.6) and 5.7 (2.5–13.3), respectively) and onset of asthma (OR 2.6 (1.1–6.0), and 1.7 (1.2–2.3)). A high self-reported responsiveness to airway irritants (OR 1.6 (1.1–2.2)), and more asthma medications (OR 2.0 (1.3–2.9)) were additional indicators of persistent asthma at the follow-up. Belonging to the older age group decreased the risk both of having persistent asthma and asthma onset. Discussion Asthmatics sensitized to pets have a more severe outcome than asthmatics not sensitized to pets. Sensitization to pets was also a strong predictor for onset of asthma. Special attention should be given to asthmatics who report having severe symptoms and problems with airway irritants as such patients are more likely to have persistent problems. PMID:23339512

Association of human leukocyte antigen polymorphism with outcomes of hepatitis B virus infection.

PubMed

Ramezani, Amitis; Hasanjani Roshan, Mohammad Reza; Kalantar, Ebrahim; Eslamifar, Ali; Banifazl, Mohammad; Taeb, Jaleh; Aghakhani, Arezoo; Gachkar, Latif; Velayati, Ali Akbar

2008-11-01

Host genetic and environmental factors are viewed as a common basis of the different outcomes of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. Human leukocyte antigen (HLA) plays an important role in immunological reaction to HBV infection. In this study, we aimed to determine the association between HBV infection and HLA-A, B, and DRB1 alleles in northern Iran. HLA-A, B, and DRB1 alleles in 33 patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and 31 healthy carriers as the persistent group, and 30 subjects who had spontaneously recovered from HBV infection were analyzed by using the polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-sequence-specific primer (PCR-SSP) technique. The frequency of the HLA-A*33 allele was higher in the persistent group than in the recovered group (10.16% vs 0%, P < 0.008); the frequency of the DRB1*13 allele was lower in the persistent group than in the recovered group (3.13% vs 11.67%, P < 0.03). The frequency of the B*52 allele was higher in CHB patients than healthy carriers (7.58% vs 0%, P < 0.05). The logistic regression model showed that the presence of the HLA-DRB1*13 allele was the significant factor associated with protection against the persistency of HBV. There were significant differences between the HBV recovered group, CHB patients, and healthy carriers regarding age, hepatitis B e antigen, and anti-hepatitis B e positivity. HLA-A*33 was closely related with susceptibility to persisting hepatitis B infection, and HLA-DRB1*13 was closely related with protection against persisting hepatitis B in an Iranian population. These findings emphasized that the host HLA polymorphism is an important factor in determining the outcome of HBV infection.

The dynamics of diverse segmental amplifications in populations of Saccharomyces cerevisiae adapting to strong selection.

PubMed

Payen, Celia; Di Rienzi, Sara C; Ong, Giang T; Pogachar, Jamie L; Sanchez, Joseph C; Sunshine, Anna B; Raghuraman, M K; Brewer, Bonita J; Dunham, Maitreya J

2014-03-20

Population adaptation to strong selection can occur through the sequential or parallel accumulation of competing beneficial mutations. The dynamics, diversity, and rate of fixation of beneficial mutations within and between populations are still poorly understood. To study how the mutational landscape varies across populations during adaptation, we performed experimental evolution on seven parallel populations of Saccharomyces cerevisiae continuously cultured in limiting sulfate medium. By combining quantitative polymerase chain reaction, array comparative genomic hybridization, restriction digestion and contour-clamped homogeneous electric field gel electrophoresis, and whole-genome sequencing, we followed the trajectory of evolution to determine the identity and fate of beneficial mutations. During a period of 200 generations, the yeast populations displayed parallel evolutionary dynamics that were driven by the coexistence of independent beneficial mutations. Selective amplifications rapidly evolved under this selection pressure, in particular common inverted amplifications containing the sulfate transporter gene SUL1. Compared with single clones, detailed analysis of the populations uncovers a greater complexity whereby multiple subpopulations arise and compete despite a strong selection. The most common evolutionary adaptation to strong selection in these populations grown in sulfate limitation is determined by clonal interference, with adaptive variants both persisting and replacing one another.

The Dynamics of Diverse Segmental Amplifications in Populations of Saccharomyces cerevisiae Adapting to Strong Selection

PubMed Central

Payen, Celia; Di Rienzi, Sara C.; Ong, Giang T.; Pogachar, Jamie L.; Sanchez, Joseph C.; Sunshine, Anna B.; Raghuraman, M. K.; Brewer, Bonita J.; Dunham, Maitreya J.

2014-01-01

Population adaptation to strong selection can occur through the sequential or parallel accumulation of competing beneficial mutations. The dynamics, diversity, and rate of fixation of beneficial mutations within and between populations are still poorly understood. To study how the mutational landscape varies across populations during adaptation, we performed experimental evolution on seven parallel populations of Saccharomyces cerevisiae continuously cultured in limiting sulfate medium. By combining quantitative polymerase chain reaction, array comparative genomic hybridization, restriction digestion and contour-clamped homogeneous electric field gel electrophoresis, and whole-genome sequencing, we followed the trajectory of evolution to determine the identity and fate of beneficial mutations. During a period of 200 generations, the yeast populations displayed parallel evolutionary dynamics that were driven by the coexistence of independent beneficial mutations. Selective amplifications rapidly evolved under this selection pressure, in particular common inverted amplifications containing the sulfate transporter gene SUL1. Compared with single clones, detailed analysis of the populations uncovers a greater complexity whereby multiple subpopulations arise and compete despite a strong selection. The most common evolutionary adaptation to strong selection in these populations grown in sulfate limitation is determined by clonal interference, with adaptive variants both persisting and replacing one another. PMID:24368781

Anticipating persistent infection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moitra, Promit; Jain, Kanishk; Sinha, Sudeshna

2018-03-01

We explore the emergence of persistent infection in a closed region where the disease progression of the individuals is given by the SIRS model, with an individual becoming infected on contact with another infected individual within a given range. We focus on the role of synchronization in the persistence of contagion. Our key result is that higher degree of synchronization, both globally in the population and locally in the neighbourhoods, hinders persistence of infection. Importantly, we find that early short-time asynchrony appears to be a consistent precursor to future persistence of infection, and can potentially provide valuable early warnings for sustained contagion in a population patch. Thus, transient synchronization can help anticipate the long-term persistence of infection. Further we demonstrate that when the range of influence of an infected individual is wider, one obtains lower persistent infection. This counterintuitive observation can also be understood through the relation between synchronization and infection burn-out.

Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

PubMed

Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H; Oli, Madan K

2012-01-01

Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λ(s) was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λ(s) included 1.0 (0.52-1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

Stochastic Population Dynamics of a Montane Ground-Dwelling Squirrel

PubMed Central

Hostetler, Jeffrey A.; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H.; Oli, Madan K.

2012-01-01

Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990–2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λs was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λs included 1.0 (0.52–1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration. PMID:22479616

Host persistence or extinction from emerging infectious disease: insights from white-nose syndrome in endemic and invading regions.

PubMed

Hoyt, Joseph R; Langwig, Kate E; Sun, Keping; Lu, Guanjun; Parise, Katy L; Jiang, Tinglei; Frick, Winifred F; Foster, Jeffrey T; Feng, Jiang; Kilpatrick, A Marm

2016-03-16

Predicting species' fates following the introduction of a novel pathogen is a significant and growing problem in conservation. Comparing disease dynamics between introduced and endemic regions can offer insight into which naive hosts will persist or go extinct, with disease acting as a filter on host communities. We examined four hypothesized mechanisms for host-pathogen persistence by comparing host infection patterns and environmental reservoirs for Pseudogymnoascus destructans (the causative agent of white-nose syndrome) in Asia, an endemic region, and North America, where the pathogen has recently invaded. Although colony sizes of bats and hibernacula temperatures were very similar, both infection prevalence and fungal loads were much lower on bats and in the environment in Asia than North America. These results indicate that transmission intensity and pathogen growth are lower in Asia, likely due to higher host resistance to pathogen growth in this endemic region, and not due to host tolerance, lower transmission due to smaller populations, or lower environmentally driven pathogen growth rate. Disease filtering also appears to be favouring initially resistant species in North America. More broadly, determining the mechanisms allowing species persistence in endemic regions can help identify species at greater risk of extinction in introduced regions, and determine the consequences for disease dynamics and host-pathogen coevolution. © 2016 The Author(s).

Students' Self-Determined Motivation, Emotional Intelligence and Academic Persistence: An Examination of Second Year Students at a Public and a Private Historically Black University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watts-Martinez, Evanda Shentelle

2015-01-01

Self-determined Motivation, Emotional Intelligence, Persistence Attitudes, and Persistence Behaviors are non-cognitive factors that influence students' academic progression. This study examined the associations between Self-determined Motivation, EI, Persistence Attitudes, and Persistence Behaviors and the degree to which EI, as a mediating…

Persistence of canine distemper virus in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem's carnivore community.

PubMed

Almberg, Emily S; Cross, Paul C; Smith, Douglas W

2010-10-01

Canine distemper virus (CDV) is an acute, highly immunizing pathogen that should require high densities and large populations of hosts for long-term persistence, yet CDV persists among terrestrial carnivores with small, patchily distributed groups. We used CDV in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem's (GYE) wolves (Canis lupus) and coyotes (Canis latrans) as a case study for exploring how metapopulation structure, host demographics, and multi-host transmission affect the critical community size and spatial scale required for CDV persistence. We illustrate how host spatial connectivity and demographic turnover interact to affect both local epidemic dynamics, such as the length and variation in inter-epidemic periods, and pathogen persistence using stochastic, spatially explicit susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered simulation models. Given the apparent absence of other known persistence mechanisms (e.g., a carrier or environmental state, densely populated host, chronic infection, or a vector), we suggest that CDV requires either large spatial scales or multi-host transmission for persistence. Current GYE wolf populations are probably too small to support endemic CDV. Coyotes are a plausible reservoir host, but CDV would still require 50000-100000 individuals for moderate persistence (> 50% over 10 years), which would equate to an area of 1-3 times the size of the GYE (60000-200000 km2). Coyotes, and carnivores in general, are not uniformly distributed; therefore, this is probably a gross underestimate of the spatial scale of CDV persistence. However, the presence of a second competent host species can greatly increase the probability of long-term CDV persistence at much smaller spatial scales. Although no management of CDV is currently recommended for the GYE, wolf managers in the region should expect periodic but unpredictable CDV-related population declines as often as every 2-5 years. Awareness and monitoring of such outbreaks will allow corresponding adjustments in management activities such as regulated public harvest, creating a smooth transition to state wolf management and conservation after > 30 years of being protected by the Endangered Species Act.

Plant population growth and competition in a light gradient: a mathematical model of canopy partitioning.

PubMed

Vance, Richard R; Nevai, Andrew L

2007-03-21

Can a difference in the heights at which plants place their leaves, a pattern we call canopy partitioning, make it possible for two competing plant species to coexist? To find out, we examine a model of clonal plants living in a nonseasonal environment that relates the dynamical behavior and competitive abilities of plant populations to the structural and functional features of the plants that form them. This examination emphasizes whole plant performance in the vertical light gradient caused by self-shading. This first of three related papers formulates a prototype single species Canopy Structure Model from biological first principles and shows how all plant properties work together to determine population persistence and equilibrium abundance. Population persistence is favored, and equilibrium abundance is increased, by high irradiance, high maximum photosynthesis rate, rapid saturation of the photosynthetic response to increased irradiance, low tissue respiration rate, small amounts of stem and root tissue necessary to support the needs of leaves, and low density of leaf, stem, and root tissues. In particular, equilibrium abundance decreases as mean leaf height increases because of the increased cost of manufacturing and maintaining stem tissue. All conclusions arise from this formulation by straightforward analysis. The argument concludes by stating this formulation's straightforward extension, called a Canopy Partitioning Model, to two competing species.

The Hydrology of Malaria: Model Development and Application to a Sahelian Village

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bomblies, A.; Duchemin, J.; Eltahir, E. A.

2008-12-01

We present a coupled hydrology and entomology model for the mechanistic simulation of local-scale response of malaria transmission to hydrological and climatological determinants in semi-arid, desert fringe environments. The model is applied to the Sahel village of Banizoumbou, Niger, to predict interannual variability in malaria vector mosquito populations which lead to variations in malaria transmission. Using a high-resolution, small-scale distributed hydrology model that incorporates remotely-sensed data for land cover and topography, we simulate the formation and persistence of the pools constituting the primary breeding habitat of Anopheles gambiae s.l. mosquitoes, the principal regional malaria vector mosquitoes. An agent-based mosquito population model is coupled to the distributed hydrology model, with aquatic stage and adult stage components. For each individual adult mosquito, the model tracks attributes relevant to population dynamics and malaria transmission, which are updated as mosquitoes interact with their environment, humans, and animals. Weekly field observations were made in 2005 and 2006. The model reproduces mosquito population variability at seasonal and interannual time scales, and highlights individual pool persistence as a dominant control. Future developments to the presented model can be used in the evaluation of impacts of climate change on malaria, as well as the a priori evaluation of environmental management-based interventions.

Resistance in persisting bat populations after white-nose syndrome invasion.

PubMed

Langwig, Kate E; Hoyt, Joseph R; Parise, Katy L; Frick, Winifred F; Foster, Jeffrey T; Kilpatrick, A Marm

2017-01-19

Increases in anthropogenic movement have led to a rise in pathogen introductions and the emergence of infectious diseases in naive host communities worldwide. We combined empirical data and mathematical models to examine changes in disease dynamics in little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus) populations following the introduction of the emerging fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans, which causes the disease white-nose syndrome. We found that infection intensity was much lower in persisting populations than in declining populations where the fungus has recently invaded. Fitted models indicate that this is most consistent with a reduction in the growth rate of the pathogen when fungal loads become high. The data are inconsistent with the evolution of tolerance or an overall reduced pathogen growth rate that might be caused by environmental factors. The existence of resistance in some persisting populations of little brown bats offers a glimmer of hope that a precipitously declining species will persist in the face of this deadly pathogen.This article is part of the themed issue 'Human influences on evolution, and the ecological and societal consequences'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Timing and severity of immunizing diseases in rabbits is controlled by seasonal matching of host and pathogen dynamics.

PubMed

Wells, Konstans; Brook, Barry W; Lacy, Robert C; Mutze, Greg J; Peacock, David E; Sinclair, Ron G; Schwensow, Nina; Cassey, Phillip; O'Hara, Robert B; Fordham, Damien A

2015-02-06

Infectious diseases can exert a strong influence on the dynamics of host populations, but it remains unclear why such disease-mediated control only occurs under particular environmental conditions. We used 16 years of detailed field data on invasive European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in Australia, linked to individual-based stochastic models and Bayesian approximations, to test whether (i) mortality associated with rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) is driven primarily by seasonal matches/mismatches between demographic rates and epidemiological dynamics and (ii) delayed infection (arising from insusceptibility and maternal antibodies in juveniles) are important factors in determining disease severity and local population persistence of rabbits. We found that both the timing of reproduction and exposure to viruses drove recurrent seasonal epidemics of RHD. Protection conferred by insusceptibility and maternal antibodies controlled seasonal disease outbreaks by delaying infection; this could have also allowed escape from disease. The persistence of local populations was a stochastic outcome of recovery rates from both RHD and myxomatosis. If susceptibility to RHD is delayed, myxomatosis will have a pronounced effect on population extirpation when the two viruses coexist. This has important implications for wildlife management, because it is likely that such seasonal interplay and disease dynamics has a strong effect on long-term population viability for many species. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Determinants of male floating behaviour and floater reproduction in a threatened population of the hihi (Notiomystis cincta)

PubMed Central

Brekke, Patricia; Ewen, John G; Clucas, Gemma; Santure, Anna W

2015-01-01

Floating males are usually thought of as nonbreeders. However, some floating individuals are able to reproduce through extra-pair copulations. Floater reproductive success can impact breeders’ sex ratio, reproductive variance, multiple paternity and inbreeding, particularly in small populations. Changes in reproductive variance alter the rate of genetic drift and loss of genetic diversity. Therefore, genetic management of threatened species requires an understanding of floater reproduction and determinants of floating behaviour to effectively conserve species. Here, we used a pedigreed, free-living population of the endangered New Zealand hihi (Notiomystis cincta) to assess variance in male reproductive success and test the genetic (inbreeding and heritability) and conditional (age and size) factors that influence floater behaviour and reproduction. Floater reproduction is common in this species. However, floater individuals have lower reproductive success and variance in reproductive success than territorial males (total and extra-pair fledglings), so their relative impact on the population's reproductive performance is low. Whether an individual becomes a floater, and if so then how successful they are, is determined mainly by individual age (young and old) and to lesser extents male size (small) and inbreeding level (inbred). Floating males have a small, but important role in population reproduction and persistence of threatened populations. PMID:26366197

Democracy and Self-Rated Health across 67 Countries: A Multilevel Analysis

PubMed Central

Krueger, Patrick M.; Dovel, Kathryn; Denney, Justin T.

2015-01-01

Existing research has found a positive association between countries’ level of democratic governance and the health of their populations, although that research is limited by the use of data from small numbers of high-income countries or aggregate data that do not assess individual-level health outcomes. We extend prior research by using multilevel World Health Survey (2002-2004) data on 313,554 individuals in 67 countries, and find that the positive association between democratic governance and self-rated health persists after adjusting for both individual- and country-level confounders. However, the mechanisms linking democracy and self-rated health remain unclear. Individual-level measures of socioeconomic status, and country-level measures of economic inequality and investments in public health and education, do not significantly mediate the association between democratic governance and self-rated health. The persistent association between democratic governance and health suggests that the political organization of societies may be an important upstream determinant of population health. PMID:26356825

Democracy and self-rated health across 67 countries: A multilevel analysis.

PubMed

Krueger, Patrick M; Dovel, Kathryn; Denney, Justin T

2015-10-01

Existing research has found a positive association between countries' level of democratic governance and the health of their populations, although that research is limited by the use of data from small numbers of high-income countries or aggregate data that do not assess individual-level health outcomes. We extend prior research by using multilevel World Health Survey (2002-2004) data on 313,554 individuals in 67 countries, and find that the positive association between democratic governance and self-rated health persists after adjusting for both individual- and country-level confounders. However, the mechanisms linking democracy and self-rated health remain unclear. Individual-level measures of socioeconomic status, and country-level measures of economic inequality and investments in public health and education, do not significantly mediate the association between democratic governance and self-rated health. The persistent association between democratic governance and health suggests that the political organization of societies may be an important upstream determinant of population health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulation modeling of population viability for the leopard darter (Percidae: Percina pantherina)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, L.R.; Echelle, A.A.; Toepfer, C.S.; Williams, M.G.; Fisher, W.L.

1999-01-01

We used the computer program RAMAS to perform a population viability analysis for the leopard darter, Percina pantherina. This percid fish is a threatened species confined to five isolated rivers in the Ouachita Mountains of Oklahoma and Arkansas. A base model created from life history data indicated a 6% probability that the leopard darter would go extinct in 50 years. We performed sensitivity analyses to determine the effects of initial population size, variation in age structure, variation in severity and probability of catastrophe, and migration rate. Catastrophe (modeled as the probability and severity of drought) and migration had the greatest effects on persistence. Results of these simulations have implications for management of this species.

Human biomonitoring reference values for some non-persistent chemicals in blood and urine derived from the Canadian Health Measures Survey 2009-2013.

PubMed

Khoury, Cheryl; Werry, Kate; Haines, Douglas; Walker, Mike; Malowany, Morie

2018-05-01

The Canadian Health Measures Survey collects nationally representative human biomonitoring data on a suite of chemicals and their metabolites, including many non-persistent chemicals. Data has been collected on non-persistent chemicals, including acrylamide, chlorophenols, environmental phenols and triclocarban, organophosphate insecticides, phthalates, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon, pyrethroid insecticides, and volatile organic compounds from 2009 to 2013. Using a systematic approach building on the reference interval concept proposed by the International Federation of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine and the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry, we derive human biomonitoring reference values (RV 95 s) for these classes of non-persistent chemicals in blood and urine for the general Canadian population. RV 95 s were derived for biomarkers of non-persistent chemicals with widespread detection in Canadians (>66% detection rate). Samples with urinary creatinine levels outside the recommended range of 0.3-3.0 μg/L were excluded. Reference populations were constructed by applying smoking and fasting as exclusion criteria where appropriate. Age and sex were evaluated as possible partitioning criteria and separate RV 95 s were derived for sub-populations in cases where partitioning was deemed necessary. Reference values were derived for 40 biomarkers and represent the first set of RV 95 s for non-persistent chemicals in the general Canadian population. These values provide a measure of the upper margin of background exposure in the general population and can be compared against individual and population human biomonitoring data. RV 95 s can be used to by public health officials to identify individuals with high exposures, and by risk assessors and risk managers to identify atypical exposures or subpopulations with elevated exposures. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Female-biased sex ratio, polygyny, and persistence in the endangered Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kus, Barbara E.; Howell, Scarlett; Wood, Dustin A.

2017-01-01

Demographic changes in populations, such as skewed sex ratios, are of concern to conservationists, especially in small populations in which stochastic and other events can produce declines leading to extirpation. We documented a decline in one of the few remaining populations of Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) in southern California, USA, which dropped from 40 to 5 adults between 2000 and 2015. Declines were unequal between sexes (94% for males, 82% for females). Adult sex ratios were female-biased in 10 of 16 yr. The proportion of paired males that were polygynous ranged from 0% to 100%, depending on the ratio of females to males in the adult population. Some males paired with up to 5 females simultaneously. We investigated the role of nestling sex ratio in the female-biased adult sex ratio by using genetic techniques to determine sex from blood samples collected from 162 nestlings in 72 nests from 2002 to 2009. Both population-level and within-brood nestling sex ratios were female-biased, and were not influenced by nest order (first or subsequent), parental mating type (monogamous or polygynous), or year. Disproportionately more females than males were recruited into the breeding population, mirroring nestling and fledgling sex ratios. It thus appears that a skewed nestling sex ratio has contributed to a female-biased adult population, which in turn has influenced mating behavior. We propose that the capacity for polygyny, which generally occurs at low levels in Southwestern Willow Flycatchers, has allowed this population to persist through a decline that might otherwise have resulted in extinction.

Epigenetic differentiation persists after male gametogenesis in natural populations of the perennial herb Helleborus foetidus (Ranunculaceae).

PubMed

Herrera, Carlos M; Medrano, Mónica; Bazaga, Pilar

2013-01-01

Despite the importance of assessing the stability of epigenetic variation in non-model organisms living in real-world scenarios, no studies have been conducted on the transgenerational persistence of epigenetic structure in wild plant populations. This gap in knowledge is hindering progress in the interpretation of natural epigenetic variation. By applying the methylation-sensitive amplified fragment length polymorphism (MSAP) technique to paired plant-pollen (i.e., sporophyte-male gametophyte) DNA samples, and then comparing methylation patterns and epigenetic population differentiation in sporophytes and their descendant gametophytes, we investigated transgenerational constancy of epigenetic structure in three populations of the perennial herb Helleborus foetidus (Ranunculaceae). Single-locus and multilocus analyses revealed extensive epigenetic differentiation between sporophyte populations. Locus-by-locus comparisons of methylation status in individual sporophytes and descendant gametophytes showed that ~75% of epigenetic markers persisted unchanged through gametogenesis. In spite of some epigenetic reorganization taking place during gametogenesis, multilocus epigenetic differentiation between sporophyte populations was preserved in the subsequent gametophyte stage. In addition to illustrating the efficacy of applying the MSAP technique to paired plant-pollen DNA samples to investigate epigenetic gametic inheritance in wild plants, this paper suggests that epigenetic differentiation between adult plant populations of H. foetidus is likely to persist across generations.

Epigenetic Differentiation Persists after Male Gametogenesis in Natural Populations of the Perennial Herb Helleborus foetidus (Ranunculaceae)

PubMed Central

Herrera, Carlos M.; Medrano, Mónica; Bazaga, Pilar

2013-01-01

Despite the importance of assessing the stability of epigenetic variation in non-model organisms living in real-world scenarios, no studies have been conducted on the transgenerational persistence of epigenetic structure in wild plant populations. This gap in knowledge is hindering progress in the interpretation of natural epigenetic variation. By applying the methylation-sensitive amplified fragment length polymorphism (MSAP) technique to paired plant-pollen (i.e., sporophyte-male gametophyte) DNA samples, and then comparing methylation patterns and epigenetic population differentiation in sporophytes and their descendant gametophytes, we investigated transgenerational constancy of epigenetic structure in three populations of the perennial herb Helleborus foetidus (Ranunculaceae). Single-locus and multilocus analyses revealed extensive epigenetic differentiation between sporophyte populations. Locus-by-locus comparisons of methylation status in individual sporophytes and descendant gametophytes showed that ∼75% of epigenetic markers persisted unchanged through gametogenesis. In spite of some epigenetic reorganization taking place during gametogenesis, multilocus epigenetic differentiation between sporophyte populations was preserved in the subsequent gametophyte stage. In addition to illustrating the efficacy of applying the MSAP technique to paired plant-pollen DNA samples to investigate epigenetic gametic inheritance in wild plants, this paper suggests that epigenetic differentiation between adult plant populations of H. foetidus is likely to persist across generations. PMID:23936245

Persistence versus extinction for a class of discrete-time structured population models.

PubMed

Jin, Wen; Smith, Hal L; Thieme, Horst R

2016-03-01

We provide sharp conditions distinguishing persistence and extinction for a class of discrete-time dynamical systems on the positive cone of an ordered Banach space generated by a map which is the sum of a positive linear contraction A and a nonlinear perturbation G that is compact and differentiable at zero in the direction of the cone. Such maps arise as year-to-year projections of population age, stage, or size-structure distributions in population biology where typically A has to do with survival and individual development and G captures the effects of reproduction. The threshold distinguishing persistence and extinction is the principal eigenvalue of (II−A)(−1)G'(0) provided by the Krein-Rutman Theorem, and persistence is described in terms of associated eigenfunctionals. Our results significantly extend earlier persistence results of the last two authors which required more restrictive conditions on G. They are illustrated by application of the results to a plant model with a seed bank.

Population Dynamics of Streptococcus mitis in Its Natural Habitat

PubMed Central

Hohwy, Jesper; Reinholdt, Jesper; Kilian, Mogens

2001-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the genetic structure of the typical commensal Streptococcus mitis biovar 1 in its natural habitat in the human oral cavity and pharynx and to investigate the role that selected microbial properties and host, spatial, and temporal factors play in determining the structure of the bacterial population. Consecutive samples were collected from buccal and pharyngeal mucosal surfaces of two infants, their four parents, and two elderly individuals over a period of approximately 1 year. A total of 751 isolates identified as S. mitis biovar 1 were typed by restriction endonuclease analysis (REA) and representative clones were typed by multilocus enzyme electrophoresis (MLEE). The genetic diversity of the S. mitis biovar 1 isolates collected from single infant hosts over a period of 9 to 10 months was found to be between 0.69 and 0.76, which is considerably higher than that previously observed for intestinal populations of Escherichia coli. The study provides evidence of the existence of both transient and persistent clones in adult individuals. In the two infants, however, none of 42 demonstrated clones were detected on more than a single occasion. Statistical calculations showed that the ability to persist was not distributed at random in the S. mitis biovar 1 population. However, neither immunoglobulin A1 protease activity nor the ability to bind α-amylase from saliva was a preferential characteristic of persistent genotypes. In contrast to current concepts of climax ecosystems, the species niche in the habitat appears to be maintained predominantly by a succession of clones rather than by stable strains. Several lines of evidence suggest that the major origin of “new” clones is the many other habitats in the respiratory tract that are occupied by this species. PMID:11553543

Factors Affecting the Persistence of Staphylococcus aureus on Fabrics

PubMed Central

Wilkoff, Lee J.; Westbrook, Louise; Dixon, Glen J.

1969-01-01

The persistence of Staphylococcus aureus (Smith) on wool blanket, wool gabardine, cotton sheeting, cotton knit jersey, cotton terry cloth, and cotton wash-and-wear fabrics was studied. The fabrics were exposed to bacterial populations by three methods: direct contact, aerosol, and a lyophilized mixture of bacteria and dust having a high content of textile fibers. The contaminated fabrics were held in 35 or 78% relative humidities at 25 C. In general, the persistence time of S. aureus populations on fabrics held in 35% relative humidity was substantially longer when the fabrics were contaminated by exposure to aerosolized cultures or to dust containing bacteria than when contaminated by direct contact. In a 78% relative humidity, bacterial populations on the fabrics persisted for substantially shorter periods of time regardless of the mode of contamination or fabric type. Cotton wash-and-wear fabric (treated with a modified triazone resin) was the material on which populations of S. aureus persisted for the shortest time. This organism retained its virulence for Swiss mice after being recovered from wool gabardine swatches held 4 weeks in 35% relative humidity and 6 weeks in 78% relative humidity. Images PMID:5775911

When is acute persistent cough in school-age children and adults whooping cough? A prospective case series study.

PubMed

Philipson, Kathryn; Goodyear-Smith, Felicity; Grant, Cameron C; Chong, Angela; Turner, Nikki; Stewart, Joanna

2013-08-01

Pertussis is a vaccine modified disease in most age groups and hence subtle in its presentation. Current diagnostic approaches require relatively invasive sampling. To determine the incidence of B. pertussis infection among people aged 5-49 years identified in primary care with acute persistent cough using an oral fluid based diagnostic test. Active surveillance of acute persistent cough of 2 weeks duration or greater was established in Auckland, New Zealand from May to October 2011. The 15 participating primary care practices provided care for a socioeconomically diverse population. Recent B. pertussis infection was determined by measurement of IgG antibodies to pertussis toxin (PT) in an oral fluid sample. An IgG antibody titre to PT of ≥70 arbitrary units defined recent infection. Participants reported symptoms at presentation and kept a cough diary. A total of 226 participants were enrolled: 70 (31%) were children (5-16 years) and 156 (69%) were adults (17-49 years). Oral fluid samples were obtained from 225 participants. Ten per cent (23/225) had recent B. pertussis infection including a larger proportion of children than adults (17% versus 7%, P = 0.003). Neither cough duration nor any individual symptom discriminated between those with and without recent B. pertussis infection. Pertussis is a frequent cause of acute persistent cough presenting to primary care. Clinical differentiation of pertussis from other causes of acute persistent cough is difficult. An oral fluid based diagnostic test, which is less invasive than other diagnostic approaches, has high acceptability in primary care.

When is acute persistent cough in school-age children and adults whooping cough?

PubMed Central

Philipson, Kathryn; Goodyear-Smith, Felicity; Grant, Cameron C; Chong, Angela; Turner, Nikki; Stewart, Joanna

2013-01-01

Background Pertussis is a vaccine modified disease in most age groups and hence subtle in its presentation. Current diagnostic approaches require relatively invasive sampling. Aim To determine the incidence of B. pertussis infection among people aged 5–49 years identified in primary care with acute persistent cough using an oral fluid based diagnostic test. Design and setting Active surveillance of acute persistent cough of 2 weeks duration or greater was established in Auckland, New Zealand from May to October 2011. The 15 participating primary care practices provided care for a socioeconomically diverse population. Method Recent B. pertussis infection was determined by measurement of IgG antibodies to pertussis toxin (PT) in an oral fluid sample. An IgG antibody titre to PT of ≥70 arbitrary units defined recent infection. Participants reported symptoms at presentation and kept a cough diary. Results A total of 226 participants were enrolled: 70 (31%) were children (5–16 years) and 156 (69%) were adults (17–49 years). Oral fluid samples were obtained from 225 participants. Ten per cent (23/225) had recent B. pertussis infection including a larger proportion of children than adults (17% versus 7%, P = 0.003). Neither cough duration nor any individual symptom discriminated between those with and without recent B. pertussis infection. Conclusion Pertussis is a frequent cause of acute persistent cough presenting to primary care. Clinical differentiation of pertussis from other causes of acute persistent cough is difficult. An oral fluid based diagnostic test, which is less invasive than other diagnostic approaches, has high acceptability in primary care. PMID:23972198

Genetic variation in insecticide tolerance in a population of southern leopard frogs (Rana sphenocephala): Implications for amphibian conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bridges, C.M.; Semlitsch, R.D.

2001-01-01

Currently, conservation efforts are devoted to determining the extent and the causes of the decline of many amphibian species worldwide. Human impacts frequently degrade amphibian habitat and have been implicated in many declines. Because genetic variance is critical in determining the persistence of a species in a changing environment, we examined the amount of genetic variability present in a single population for tolerance to an environmental stressor. We examined the amount of genetic variability among full- and half-sib families in a single population of southern leopard frogs (Rana sphenocephala) with respect to their tolerance to lethal concentrations of the agricultural chemical, carbaryl. Analysis of time-to-death data indicated significant differences among full-sib families and suggests a large amount of variability present in the responses to this environmental stressor. Significant differences in responses among half-sib families indicated that there is additive genetic variance. These data suggest that this population may have the ability to adapt to environmental stressors. It is possible that declines of amphibian populations in the western United States may be attributed to low genetic variability resulting from limited migration among populations and small population sizes.

Postflood persistence and recolonization of endangered tidewater goby populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lafferty, Kevin D.; Swift, Camm C.; Ambrose, Richard F.

1999-01-01

Before-and-after surveys at several southern California sites indicated that populations of endangered tidewater goby Eucyclogobius newberryi persisted through heavy flooding in 1995. This was contrary to our expectations that flooding might have led to extirpation in some smaller wetlands. There was also no significant change in tidewater goby density before and after the flooding. Several apparent recolonization events coincided with the flood, suggesting that flooding may be important for the long-term persistence of the species.

Demographic rates and population viability of black bears in Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laufenberg, Jared S.; Clark, Joseph D.; Hooker, Michael J.; Lowe, Carrie L.; O'Connell-Goode, Kaitlin C.; Troxler, Jesse C.; Davidson, Maria M.; Chamberlain, Michael J.; Chandler, Richard B.

2015-01-01

The Louisiana black bear (Ursus americanus luteolus) was reduced to a few small, fragmented, and isolated subpopulations in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley by the mid-twentieth century resulting from loss and fragmentation of habitat. In 1992, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) granted the Louisiana black bear threatened status under the United States Endangered Species Act of 1973. Since that time, a recovery plan was developed, a reintroduced population was established, and habitat recovery has occurred. The Recovery Plan states that a minimum of 2 populations must be viable (i.e., persistence probabilities over 100 years >0.95), 1 in the Tensas River Basin and 1 in the Atchafalaya River Basin. Consequently, our objectives were to 1) estimate demographic rates of Louisiana black bear subpopulations, 2) develop data-driven stochastic population projection models, and 3) determine how different projection model assumptions affect population trajectories and predictions about long-term persistence. Our overall goal was to assess long-term persistence of the bear subpopulations in Louisiana, individually and as a whole. We collected data using varying combinations of non-invasive DNA sampling, live capture, winter den visits, and radio monitoring from 2002 to 2012 in the 4 areas currently supporting breeding subpopulations in Louisiana: Tensas River Basin (TRB), Upper Atchafalaya River Basin (UARB), Lower Atchafalaya River Basin (LARB), and a recently reintroduced population at the Three Rivers Complex (TRC). From 2002 to 2012, we radio monitored fates of 86 adult females within the TRB and 43 in the TRC. Mean estimates of annual adult survival for the TRB and TRC were 0.997 and 0.990, respectively, when unknown fates were assumed alive and 0.970 and 0.926 when unknown fates were assumed dead. From 2003 to 2013, we observed 130 cub litters from 74 females in the TRB, and 74 cub litters from 45 females in the TRC. During the same period, we observed 43 yearling litters for 33 females in the TRB and 21 yearling litters for 19 females in the TRC. The estimated number of cubs and number of yearlings produced per breeding adult female was 0.47 and 0.20, respectively, in the TRB and 0.32 and 0.18 in the TRC. On the basis of matrix projection models, asymptotic growth rates ranged from 1.053 to 1.078 for the TRB and from 1.005 to 1.062 for the TRC, depending on how we treated unresolved fates of adult females. Persistence probabilities estimated from stochastic population models based on telemetry data ranged from 0.997 to 0.998 for the TRC subpopulation depending on model assumptions and were >0.999 for the TRB regardless of model assumptions. We extracted DNA from hair collected at baited, barbed-wire enclosures in the TRB, UARB, and LARB to determine individual identities for capture-mark-recapture (CMR) analysis. We used those detection histories to estimate apparent survival (φ), per-capita recruitment (f), abundance (N), realized growth rate (λ), and long-term viability, based on Bayesian hierarchical modeling methods that allowed estimation of temporal process variance and parameter uncertainty. Based on 23,312 hair samples, annual N for females in the TRB ranged from 133 to 164 during 2006–2012, depending on year and how detection heterogeneity was modeled. Geometric mean of λ ranged from 0.996 to 1.002. In the UARB, we collected 11,643 hair samples from 2007 to 2012, from which estimates of N for females ranged from 23 to 43 during the study period, depending on detection heterogeneity model. The geometric mean of λ ranged from 1.038 to 1.059. Estimated N for females in LARB ranged from 69 to 96, and annual λ ranged from 0.80 to 1.11 based on 3,698 hair samples collected during 2010–2012, also depending on year and heterogeneity model. Probabilities of persistence over 100 years for the TRC and TRB based on stochastic matrix projection models that used vital rate estimates from telemetry data were >0.95 for all scenarios. Probability of persistence at the TRB and the UARB based on projection models that used vital rate estimates from CMR analyses ranged from 0.928 to 0.954 and from 0.906 to 0.959, respectively, depending on model assumptions. Data from the LARB were insufficient for a viability assessment. Thus, individual persistence probabilities for TRB and UARB did not meet the strict definition of viability (i.e., >0.95) under some model assumptions. However, the joint probability of bears persisting either in the TRB or UARB was >0.993 assuming individual population dynamics were independent and was >0.958 assuming dynamics were perfectly correlated. Furthermore, including the TRC increased the joint probability of bears persisting somewhere in the TRB, UARB, or TRC to >0.999 based on the most pessimistic individual persistence estimates from those subpopulations. Therefore, if the intent of specifying that 2 subpopulations should be viable was to ensure the persistence of Louisiana black bears somewhere within its historical range, then the viability threshold was met. © 2016 The Wildlife Society.

Connectivity in an agricultural landscape as reflected by interpond movements of a freshwater turtle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowne, D.R.; Bowers, M.A.; Hines, J.E.

2006-01-01

Connectivity is a measure of how landscape features facilitate movement and thus is an important factor in species persistence in a fragmented landscape. The scarcity of empirical studies that directly quantify species movement and determine subsequent effects on population density have, however, limited the utility of connectivity measures in conservation planning. We undertook a 4-year study to calculate connectivity based on observed movement rates and movement probabilities for five age-sex classes of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) inhabiting a pond complex in an agricultural landscape in northern Virginia (U.S.A.). We determined which variables influenced connectivity and the relationship between connectivity and subpopulation density. Interpatch distance and quality of habitat patches influenced connectivity but characteristics of the intervening matrix did not. Adult female turtles were more influenced by the habitat quality of recipient ponds than other age-sex classes. The importance of connectivity on spatial population dynamics was most apparent during a drought. Population density and connectivity were low for one pond in a wet year but dramatically increased as other ponds dried. Connectivity is an important component of species persistence in a heterogeneous landscape and is strongly dependent on the movement behavior of the species. Connectivity may reflect active selection or avoidance of particular habitat patches. The influence of habitat quality on connectivity has often been ignored, but our findings highlight its importance. Conservation planners seeking to incorporate connectivity measures into reserve design should not ignore behavior in favor of purely structural estimates of connectivity.

Duelling timescales of host mixing and disease spread determine invasion of disease in structured populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cross, P.C.; Lloyd-Smith, James O.; Johnson, P.L.F.; Getz, W.M.

2005-01-01

The epidemic potential of a disease is traditionally assessed using the basic reproductive number, R0. However, in populations with social or spatial structure a chronic disease is more likely to invade than an acute disease with the same R0, because it persists longer within each group and allows for more host movement between groups. Acute diseases ‘perceive’ a more structured host population, and it is more important to consider host population structure in analyses of these diseases. The probability of a pandemic does not arise independently from characteristics of either the host or disease, but rather from the interaction of host movement and disease recovery timescales. The R* statistic, a group-level equivalent of R0, is a better indicator of disease invasion in structured populations than the individual-level R0.

Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

2015-06-01

The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations.

A stochastic population model for Lepidium papilliferum (Brassicaceae), a rare desert ephemeral with a persistent seed bank

Treesearch

Susan E. Meyer; Dana Quinney; Jay Weaver

2006-01-01

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a valuable tool for rare plant conservation, but PVA for plants with persistent seed banks is difficult without reliable information on seed bank processes. We modeled the population dynamics of the Snake River Plains ephemeral Lepidium papilliferum using data from an 11-yr artificial seed bank experiment to estimate age-specific...

Persistence of the single lineage of transmissible 'social cancer' in an asexual ant.

PubMed

Dobata, S; Sasaki, T; Mori, H; Hasegawa, E; Shimada, M; Tsuji, K

2011-02-01

How cooperation can arise and persist, given the threat of cheating phenotypes, is a central problem in evolutionary biology, but the actual significance of cheating in natural populations is still poorly understood. Theories of social evolution predict that cheater lineages are evolutionarily short-lived. However, an exception comes from obligate socially parasitic species, some of which thought to have arisen as cheaters within cooperator colonies and then diverged through sympatric speciation. This process requires the cheater lineage to persist by avoiding rapid extinction that would result from the fact that the cheaters inflict fitness cost on their host. We examined whether this prerequisite is fulfilled, by estimating the persistence time of cheaters in a field population of the parthenogenetic ant Pristomyrmex punctatus. Population genetic analysis found that the cheaters belong to one monophyletic lineage which we infer has persisted for 200-9200 generations. We show that the cheaters migrate and are thus horizontally transmitted between colonies, a trait allowing the lineage to avoid rapid extinction with its host colony. Although horizontal transmission of disruptive cheaters has the potential to induce extinction of the entire population, such collapse is likely averted when there is spatially restricted migration in a structured population, a scenario that matches the observed isolation by distance pattern that we found. We compare our result with other examples of disruptive and horizontally transmissible cheater lineages in nature. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Prevalence and Predictors of Persistent Speech Sound Disorder at Eight Years Old: Findings From a Population Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Miller, Laura L.; Peters, Tim J.; Emond, Alan; Roulstone, Sue

2016-01-01

Purpose The purpose of this study was to determine prevalence and predictors of persistent speech sound disorder (SSD) in children aged 8 years after disregarding children presenting solely with common clinical distortions (i.e., residual errors). Method Data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (Boyd et al., 2012) were used. Children were classified as having persistent SSD on the basis of percentage of consonants correct measures from connected speech samples. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify predictors. Results The estimated prevalence of persistent SSD was 3.6%. Children with persistent SSD were more likely to be boys and from families who were not homeowners. Early childhood predictors identified as important were weak sucking at 4 weeks, not often combining words at 24 months, limited use of word morphology at 38 months, and being unintelligible to strangers at age 38 months. School-age predictors identified as important were maternal report of difficulty pronouncing certain sounds and hearing impairment at age 7 years, tympanostomy tube insertion at any age up to 8 years, and a history of suspected coordination problems. The contribution of these findings to our understanding of risk factors for persistent SSD and the nature of the condition is considered. Conclusion Variables identified as predictive of persistent SSD suggest that factors across motor, cognitive, and linguistic processes may place a child at risk. PMID:27367606

Population viability analysis: using a modeling tool to assess the viability of tapir populations in fragmented landscapes.

PubMed

Medici, Emília Patrícia; Desbiez, Arnaud Leonard Jean

2012-12-01

A population viability analysis (PVA) was conducted of the lowland tapir populations in the Atlantic Forest of the Pontal do Paranapanema region, Brazil, including Morro do Diabo State Park (MDSP) and surrounding forest fragments. Results from the model projected that the population of 126 tapirs in MDSP is likely to persist over the next 100 years; however, 200 tapirs would be required to maintain a viable population. Sensitivity analysis showed that sub-adult mortality and adult mortality have the strongest influence on the dynamics of lowland tapir populations. High road-kill has a major impact on the MDSP tapir population and can lead to population extinction. Metapopulation modeling showed that dispersal of tapirs from MDSP to the surrounding fragments can be detrimental to the overall metapopulation, as fragments act as sinks. Nevertheless, the model showed that under certain conditions the maintenance of the metapopulation dynamics might be determinant for the persistence of tapirs in the region, particularly in the smaller fragments. The establishment of corridors connecting MDSP to the forest fragments models resulted in an increase in the stochastic growth rate, making tapirs more resilient to threats and catastrophes, but only if rates of mortality were not increased when using corridors. The PVA showed that the conservation of tapirs in the Pontal region depends on: the effective protection of MDSP; maintenance and, whenever possible, enhancement of the functional connectivity of the landscape, reducing mortality during dispersal and threats in the unprotected forest fragments; and neutralization of all threats affecting tapirs in the smaller forest fragments. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

Psychiatric comorbidity and the persistence of drug use disorders in the United States

PubMed Central

Fenton, Miriam C.; Keyes, Katherine; Geier, Timothy; Greenstein, Eliana; Skodol, Andrew; Krueger, Bob; Grant, Bridget F.; Hasin, Deborah S.

2011-01-01

Context DSM-IV drug use disorders, a major public health problem, are highly comorbid with other psychiatric disorders, but little is known about the role of this comorbidity when studied prospectively in the general population. Aims Determine the role of comorbid psychopathology in the three-year persistence of drug use disorders. Design Secondary data analysis using Waves 1 (2001-2) and 2 (2004-5) of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions. Participants Respondents with current DSM-IV drug use disorder at Wave 1 who participated in Wave 2 (N=613). Measurements AUDADIS-IV obtained DSM-IV Axis I and II diagnoses. Persistent drug use disorder was defined as meeting full criteria for any drug use disorder between Waves 1 and 2. Findings Drug use disorders persisted in 30.9% of respondents. No Axis I disorders predicted persistence. Antisocial (OR=2.75; 95% CI=1.27–5.99), borderline (OR=1.91; 95% CI=1.06–3.45) and schizotypal (OR=2.77; 95% CI=1.42–5.39) personality disorders were significant predictors of persistent drug use disorders, controlling for demographics, psychiatric comorbidity, family history, treatment and number of drug use disorders. Deceitfulness and lack of remorse were the strongest antisocial criteria predictors of drug use disorder persistence, identity disturbance and self-damaging impulsivity were the strongest borderline criteria predictors, and ideas of reference and social anxiety were the strongest schizotypal criteria predictors. Conclusions Antisocial, borderline and schizotypal personality disorders are specific predictors of drug use disorder persistence over a three-year period. PMID:21883607

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kostova, T; Carlsen, T

We present a study, based on simulations with SERDYCA, a spatially-explicit individual based model of rodent dynamics, on the connection between population persistence and the presence of inhomogeneities in the habitat. We are specifically interested on the effect that inhomogeneities that do not fragment the environment, have on population persistence. Our results suggest that a certain percentage of inhomogeneities can increase the average time to extinction of the population. Inhomogeneities decrease the population density and can increase the ratio of juveniles in the population thus providing a better chance for the population to restore itself after a severe period withmore » critically low population density. We call this the ''inhomogeneity localization effect''.« less

[Factors of persistence and (or) pathogenicity in vibrios and aeromonads belonging to different ecotopes].

PubMed

Bukharin, O V; Boĭko, A V; Zhuravleva, L A

1998-01-01

Factors of persistence and/or pathogenicity in Vibrio parahaemolyticus and Aeromonas hydrophila (hemolytic, lipase, lecithin, DNAase, RNAase, antilysozyme, "anti-interferon", anticomplementary activities and capacity for absorbing Congo red) were studied. The study revealed the interspecific and subpopulation (hospital and extraorganismal parts of the population) differences in the activity of the manifestation of these factors. Strong dependence of the whole complex of persistence and pathogenicity factors of their belonging to the hostal part of Vibrio and Aeromonas populations was shown.

Genetic Structure and Diversity of the Endangered Fir Tree of Lebanon (Abies cilicica Carr.): Implications for Conservation

PubMed Central

Awad, Lara; Fady, Bruno; Khater, Carla; Roig, Anne; Cheddadi, Rachid

2014-01-01

The threatened conifer Abies cilicica currently persists in Lebanon in geographically isolated forest patches. The impact of demographic and evolutionary processes on population genetic diversity and structure were assessed using 10 nuclear microsatellite loci. All remnant 15 local populations revealed a low genetic variation but a high recent effective population size. FST-based measures of population genetic differentiation revealed a low spatial genetic structure, but Bayesian analysis of population structure identified a significant Northeast-Southwest population structure. Populations showed significant but weak isolation-by-distance, indicating non-equilibrium conditions between dispersal and genetic drift. Bayesian assignment tests detected an asymmetric Northeast-Southwest migration involving some long-distance dispersal events. We suggest that the persistence and Northeast-Southwest geographic structure of Abies cilicica in Lebanon is the result of at least two demographic processes during its recent evolutionary history: (1) recent migration to currently marginal populations and (2) local persistence through altitudinal shifts along a mountainous topography. These results might help us better understand the mechanisms involved in the species response to expected climate change. PMID:24587219

The Capacity of Mycobacterium tuberculosis To Survive Iron Starvation Might Enable It To Persist in Iron-Deprived Microenvironments of Human Granulomas.

PubMed

Kurthkoti, Krishna; Amin, Hamel; Marakalala, Mohlopheni J; Ghanny, Saleena; Subbian, Selvakumar; Sakatos, Alexandra; Livny, Jonathan; Fortune, Sarah M; Berney, Michael; Rodriguez, G Marcela

2017-08-15

This study was conducted to investigate the role of iron deprivation in the persistence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis We present evidence of iron restriction in human necrotic granulomas and demonstrate that under iron starvation M. tuberculosis persists, refractive to antibiotics and capable of restarting replication when iron is made available. Transcriptomics and metabolomic analyses indicated that the persistence of M. tuberculosis under iron starvation is dependent on strict control of endogenous Fe utilization and is associated with upregulation of pathogenicity and intrinsic antibiotic resistance determinants. M. tuberculosis mutants compromised in their ability to survive Fe starvation were identified. The findings of this study advance the understanding of the physiological settings that may underpin the chronicity of human tuberculosis (TB) and are relevant to the design of effective antitubercular therapies. IMPORTANCE One-third of the world population may harbor persistent M. tuberculosis , causing an asymptomatic infection that is refractory to treatment and can reactivate to become potentially lethal tuberculosis disease. However, little is known about the factors that trigger and maintain M. tuberculosis persistence in infected individuals. Iron is an essential nutrient for M. tuberculosis growth. In this study, we show, first, that in human granulomas the immune defense creates microenvironments in which M. tuberculosis likely experiences drastic Fe deprivation and, second, that Fe-starved M. tuberculosis is capable of long-term persistence without growth. Together, these observations suggest that Fe deprivation in the lung might trigger a state of persistence in M. tuberculosis and promote chronic TB. We also identified vulnerabilities of iron-restricted persistent M. tuberculosis , which can be exploited for the design of new antitubercular therapies. Copyright © 2017 Kurthkoti et al.

Germination traits explain soil seed persistence across species: the case of Mediterranean annual plants in cereal fields

PubMed Central

Saatkamp, Arne; Affre, Laurence; Dutoit, Thierry; Poschlod, Peter

2011-01-01

Background and Aims Seed persistence in the soil under field conditions is an important issue for the maintenance of local plant populations and the restoration of plant communities, increasingly so in the light of rapidly changing land use and climate change. Whereas processes important for dispersal in space are well known, knowledge of processes governing dispersal in time is still limited. Data for morphological seed traits such as size have given contradictory results for prediction of soil seed persistence or cover only a few species. There have been few experimental studies on the role of germination traits in determining soil seed persistence, while none has studied their predictive value consistently across species. Delayed germination, as well as light requirements for germination, have been suggested to contribute to the formation of persistent seed banks. Moreover, diurnally fluctuating temperatures can influence the timing of germination and are therefore linked to seed bank persistence. Methods The role of germination speed measured by T50 (days to germination of 50 % of all germinated seeds), light requirement and reaction to diurnally fluctuating temperatures in determining seed persistence in the soil was evaluated using an experimental comparative data set of 25 annual cereal weed species. Key Results It is shown that light requirements and slow germination are important features to maintain seeds ungerminated just after entering the soil, and hence influence survival of seeds in the soil. However, the detection of low diurnally fluctuating temperatures enhances soil seed bank persistence by limiting germination. Our data further suggest that the effect of diurnally fluctuating temperatures, as measured on seeds after dispersal and dry storage, is increasingly important to prevent fatal germination after longer burial periods. Conclusions These results underline the functional role of delayed germination and light for survival of seeds in the soil and hence their importance for shaping the first part of the seed decay curve. Our analyses highlight the detection of diurnally fluctuating temperatures as a third mechanism to achieve higher soil seed persistence after burial which interacts strongly with season. We therefore advocate focusing future research on mechanisms that favour soil seed persistence after longer burial times and moving from studies of morphological features to exploration of germination traits such as reaction to diurnally fluctuating temperatures. PMID:21224268

Effects of climate change on long-term population growth of pronghorn in an arid environment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gedir, Jay V.; Cain, James W.; Harris, Grant; Turnbull, Trey T.

2015-01-01

Climate often drives ungulate population dynamics, and as climates change, some areas may become unsuitable for species persistence. Unraveling the relationships between climate and population dynamics, and projecting them across time, advances ecological understanding that informs and steers sustainable conservation for species. Using pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) as an ecological model, we used a Bayesian approach to analyze long-term population, precipitation, and temperature data from 18 populations in the southwestern United States. We determined which long-term (12 and 24 months) or short-term (gestation trimester and lactation period) climatic conditions best predicted annual rate of population growth (λ). We used these predictions to project population trends through 2090. Projections incorporated downscaled climatic data matched to pronghorn range for each population, given a high and a lower atmospheric CO2 concentration scenario. Since the 1990s, 15 of the pronghorn populations declined in abundance. Sixteen populations demonstrated a significant relationship between precipitation and λ, and in 13 of these, temperature was also significant. Precipitation predictors of λ were highly seasonal, with lactation being the most important period, followed by early and late gestation. The influence of temperature on λ was less seasonal than precipitation, and lacked a clear temporal pattern. The climatic projections indicated that all of these pronghorn populations would experience increased temperatures, while the direction and magnitude of precipitation had high population-specific variation. Models predicted that nine populations would be extirpated or approaching extirpation by 2090. Results were consistent across both atmospheric CO2 concentration scenarios, indicating robustness of trends irrespective of climatic severity. In the southwestern United States, the climate underpinning pronghorn populations is shifting, making conditions increasingly inhospitable to pronghorn persistence. This realization informs and steers conservation and management decisions for pronghorn in North America, while exemplifying how similar research can aid ungulates inhabiting arid regions and confronting similar circumstances elsewhere.

[Place of persistence trouble during oral contraception and subsequent use of emergency contraception].

PubMed

Jamin, C; Lachowsky, M

2015-10-01

In order to improve the understanding of hormonal contraceptive failures, this study evaluates the persistence of oral contraception and the use of emergency contraception (EC) during persistence incidents. We made the hypothesis of the existence of a strong link between the risk of unplanned pregnancies and these two parameters. In this study, we also evaluated women's perception of EC in order to elucidate the reasons of EC insufficient use. One survey was carried out on Internet on a representative sample of women, aged 16-45. In this survey, 3775 French women were interviewed (source-population). We defined a target population of 2415 fertile women who had heterosexual intercourse during the last 12 months, and a population of 760 women at risk of unintended pregnancy who had unprotected sexual intercourse during the last 12 months(risk-population). A little more than 30% of the target population, meaning 20% of the source-population (n=745) stopped their contraceptive method temporarily for an average time of two months. Almost 60% of women had a risk of unwanted pregnancy during this period without contraception, which is 59% of the risk-population. Only 20% of women among the population at risk used EC. The main reasons given for EC insufficient use were the misperception of the risk of pregnancy, the lack of knowledge about EC and its way of use. For the first time, this survey shows that 13% of women (of the source population) decide to stop temporarily their contraceptive method for an average time of two months per year. Fifty-nine percent of unplanned pregnancy situations are due to this poor contraception persistence. Although there is a need to reduce the risk of women being at risk, it seems also highly desirable to overcome the consequences of this poor persistence. Giving information about EC and a systematic prescription during contraception consultations would lead to an increased use of EC. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Acclimatization and Adaptive Capacity of Marine Species in a Changing Ocean.

PubMed

Foo, S A; Byrne, M

To persist in an ocean changing in temperature, pH and other stressors related to climate change, many marine species will likely need to acclimatize or adapt to avoid extinction. If marine populations possess adequate genetic variation in tolerance to climate change stressors, species might be able to adapt to environmental change. Marine climate change research is moving away from single life stage studies where individuals are directly placed into projected scenarios ('future shock' approach), to focus on the adaptive potential of populations in an ocean that will gradually change over coming decades. This review summarizes studies that consider the adaptive potential of marine invertebrates to climate change stressors and the methods that have been applied to this research, including quantitative genetics, laboratory selection studies and trans- and multigenerational experiments. Phenotypic plasticity is likely to contribute to population persistence providing time for genetic adaptation to occur. Transgenerational and epigenetic effects indicate that the environmental and physiological history of the parents can affect offspring performance. There is a need for long-term, multigenerational experiments to determine the influence of phenotypic plasticity, genetic variation and transgenerational effects on species' capacity to persist in a changing ocean. However, multigenerational studies are only practicable for short generation species. Consideration of multiple morphological and physiological traits, including changes in molecular processes (eg, DNA methylation) and long-term studies that facilitate acclimatization will be essential in making informed predictions of how the seascape and marine communities will be altered by climate change. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Host Resistance, Population Structure and the Long-Term Persistence of Bubonic Plague: Contributions of a Modelling Approach in the Malagasy Focus

PubMed Central

Gascuel, Fanny; Choisy, Marc; Duplantier, Jean-Marc; Débarre, Florence; Brouat, Carine

2013-01-01

Although bubonic plague is an endemic zoonosis in many countries around the world, the factors responsible for the persistence of this highly virulent disease remain poorly known. Classically, the endemic persistence of plague is suspected to be due to the coexistence of plague resistant and plague susceptible rodents in natural foci, and/or to a metapopulation structure of reservoirs. Here, we test separately the effect of each of these factors on the long-term persistence of plague. We analyse the dynamics and equilibria of a model of plague propagation, consistent with plague ecology in Madagascar, a major focus where this disease is endemic since the 1920s in central highlands. By combining deterministic and stochastic analyses of this model, and including sensitivity analyses, we show that (i) endemicity is favoured by intermediate host population sizes, (ii) in large host populations, the presence of resistant rats is sufficient to explain long-term persistence of plague, and (iii) the metapopulation structure of susceptible host populations alone can also account for plague endemicity, thanks to both subdivision and the subsequent reduction in the size of subpopulations, and extinction-recolonization dynamics of the disease. In the light of these results, we suggest scenarios to explain the localized presence of plague in Madagascar. PMID:23675291

Host resistance, population structure and the long-term persistence of bubonic plague: contributions of a modelling approach in the Malagasy focus.

PubMed

Gascuel, Fanny; Choisy, Marc; Duplantier, Jean-Marc; Débarre, Florence; Brouat, Carine

2013-01-01

Although bubonic plague is an endemic zoonosis in many countries around the world, the factors responsible for the persistence of this highly virulent disease remain poorly known. Classically, the endemic persistence of plague is suspected to be due to the coexistence of plague resistant and plague susceptible rodents in natural foci, and/or to a metapopulation structure of reservoirs. Here, we test separately the effect of each of these factors on the long-term persistence of plague. We analyse the dynamics and equilibria of a model of plague propagation, consistent with plague ecology in Madagascar, a major focus where this disease is endemic since the 1920s in central highlands. By combining deterministic and stochastic analyses of this model, and including sensitivity analyses, we show that (i) endemicity is favoured by intermediate host population sizes, (ii) in large host populations, the presence of resistant rats is sufficient to explain long-term persistence of plague, and (iii) the metapopulation structure of susceptible host populations alone can also account for plague endemicity, thanks to both subdivision and the subsequent reduction in the size of subpopulations, and extinction-recolonization dynamics of the disease. In the light of these results, we suggest scenarios to explain the localized presence of plague in Madagascar.

Support for viral persistence in bats from age-specific serology and models of maternal immunity.

PubMed

Peel, Alison J; Baker, Kate S; Hayman, David T S; Broder, Christopher C; Cunningham, Andrew A; Fooks, Anthony R; Garnier, Romain; Wood, James L N; Restif, Olivier

2018-03-01

Spatiotemporally-localised prediction of virus emergence from wildlife requires focused studies on the ecology and immunology of reservoir hosts in their native habitat. Reliable predictions from mathematical models remain difficult in most systems due to a dearth of appropriate empirical data. Our goal was to study the circulation and immune dynamics of zoonotic viruses in bat populations and investigate the effects of maternally-derived and acquired immunity on viral persistence. Using rare age-specific serological data from wild-caught Eidolon helvum fruit bats as a case study, we estimated viral transmission parameters for a stochastic infection model. We estimated mean durations of around 6 months for maternally-derived immunity to Lagos bat virus and African henipavirus, whereas acquired immunity was long-lasting (Lagos bat virus: mean 12 years, henipavirus: mean 4 years). In the presence of a seasonal birth pulse, the effect of maternally-derived immunity on virus persistence within modelled bat populations was highly dependent on transmission characteristics. To explain previous reports of viral persistence within small natural and captive E. helvum populations, we hypothesise that some bats must experience prolonged infectious periods or within-host latency. By further elucidating plausible mechanisms of virus persistence in bat populations, we contribute to guidance of future field studies.

A tale of two seas: contrasting patterns of population structure in the small-spotted catshark across Europe

PubMed Central

Gubili, Chrysoula; Sims, David W.; Veríssimo, Ana; Domenici, Paolo; Ellis, Jim; Grigoriou, Panagiotis; Johnson, Andrew F.; McHugh, Matthew; Neat, Francis; Satta, Andrea; Scarcella, Giuseppe; Serra-Pereira, Bárbara; Soldo, Alen; Genner, Martin J.; Griffiths, Andrew M.

2014-01-01

Elasmobranchs represent important components of marine ecosystems, but they can be vulnerable to overexploitation. This has driven investigations into the population genetic structure of large-bodied pelagic sharks, but relatively little is known of population structure in smaller demersal taxa, which are perhaps more representative of the biodiversity of the group. This study explores spatial population genetic structure of the small-spotted catshark (Scyliorhinus canicula), across European seas. The results show significant genetic differences among most of the Mediterranean sample collections, but no significant structure among Atlantic shelf areas. The data suggest the Mediterranean populations are likely to have persisted in a stable and structured environment during Pleistocene sea-level changes. Conversely, the Northeast Atlantic populations would have experienced major changes in habitat availability during glacial cycles, driving patterns of population reduction and expansion. The data also provide evidence of male-biased dispersal and female philopatry over large spatial scales, implying complex sex-determined differences in the behaviour of elasmobranchs. On the basis of this evidence, we suggest that patterns of connectivity are determined by trends of past habitat stability that provides opportunity for local adaptation in species exhibiting philopatric behaviour, implying that resilience of populations to fisheries and other stressors may differ across the range of species. PMID:26064555

Persistence of canine distemper virus in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem's carnivore community

USGS Publications Warehouse

Almberg, E.S.; Cross, P.C.; Smith, D.W.

2010-01-01

Canine distemper virus (CDV) is an acute, highly immunizing pathogen that should require high densities and large populations of hosts for long-term persistence, yet CDV persists among terrestrial carnivores with small, patchily distributed groups. We used CDV in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem's (GYE) wolves (Canis lupus) and coyotes (Canis latrans) as a case study for exploring how metapopulation structure, host demographics, and multi-host transmission affect the critical community size and spatial scale required for CDV persistence. We illustrate how host spatial connectivity and demographic turnover interact to affect both local epidemic dynamics, such as the length and variation in inter-epidemic periods, and pathogen persistence using stochastic, spatially explicit susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered simulation models. Given the apparent absence of other known persistence mechanisms (e.g., a carrier or environmental state, densely populated host, chronic infection, or a vector), we suggest that CDV requires either large spatial scales or multi-host transmission for persistence. Current GYE wolf populations are probably too small to support endemic CDV. Coyotes are a plausible reservoir host, but CDV would still require 50 000-100 000 individuals for moderate persistence (>50% over 10 years), which would equate to an area of 1-3 times the size of the GYE (60000-200000 km2). Coyotes, and carnivores in general, are not uniformly distributed; therefore, this is probably a gross underestimate of the spatial scale of CDV persistence. However, the presence of a second competent host species can greatly increase the probability of long-term CDV persistence at much smaller spatial scales. Although no management of CDV is currently recommended for the GYE, wolf managers in the region should expect periodic but unpredictable CDV-related population declines as often as every 2-5 years. Awareness and monitoring of such outbreaks will allow corresponding adjustments in management activities such as regulated public harvest, creating a smooth transition to state wolf management and conservation after >30 years of being protected by the Endangered Species Act. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

RNA Futile Cycling in Model Persisters Derived from MazF Accumulation

PubMed Central

Mok, Wendy W. K.; Park, Junyoung O.; Rabinowitz, Joshua D.

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT Metabolism plays an important role in the persister phenotype, as evidenced by the number of strategies that perturb metabolism to sabotage this troublesome subpopulation. However, the absence of techniques to isolate high-purity populations of native persisters has precluded direct measurement of persister metabolism. To address this technical challenge, we studied Escherichia coli populations whose growth had been inhibited by the accumulation of the MazF toxin, which catalyzes RNA cleavage, as a model system for persistence. Using chromosomally integrated, orthogonally inducible promoters to express MazF and its antitoxin MazE, bacterial populations that were almost entirely tolerant to fluoroquinolone and β-lactam antibiotics were obtained upon MazF accumulation, and these were subjected to direct metabolic measurements. While MazF model persisters were nonreplicative, they maintained substantial oxygen and glucose consumption. Metabolomic analysis revealed accumulation of all four ribonucleotide monophosphates (NMPs). These results are consistent with a MazF-catalyzed RNA futile cycle, where the energy derived from catabolism is dissipated through continuous transcription and MazF-mediated RNA degradation. When transcription was inhibited, oxygen consumption and glucose uptake decreased, and nucleotide triphosphates (NTPs) and NTP/NMP ratios increased. Interestingly, the MazF-inhibited cells were sensitive to aminoglycosides, and this sensitivity was blocked by inhibition of transcription. Thus, in MazF model persisters, futile cycles of RNA synthesis and degradation result in both significant metabolic demands and aminoglycoside sensitivity. PMID:26578677

Taxonomic Structure and Monitoring of the Dominant Population of Lactic Acid Bacteria during Wheat Flour Sourdough Type I Propagation Using Lactobacillus sanfranciscensis Starters▿

PubMed Central

Siragusa, Sonya; Di Cagno, Raffaella; Ercolini, Danilo; Minervini, Fabio; Gobbetti, Marco; De Angelis, Maria

2009-01-01

The structure and stability of the dominant lactic acid bacterium population were assessed during wheat flour sourdough type I propagation by using singly nine strains of Lactobacillus sanfranciscensis. Under back-slopping propagation with wheat flour type 0 F114, cell numbers of presumptive lactic acid bacteria varied slightly between and within starters. As determined by randomly amplified polymorphic DNA-PCR and restriction endonuclease analysis-pulsed-field gel electrophoresis analyses, only three (LS8, LS14, and LS44) starters dominated throughout 10 days of propagation. The others progressively decreased to less than 3 log CFU g−1. Partial sequence analysis of the 16S rRNA and recA genes and PCR-denaturating gradient gel electrophoresis analysis using the rpoB gene allowed identification of Weissella confusa, Lactobacillus sanfranciscensis, Lactobacillus plantarum, Lactobacillus rossiae, Lactobacillus brevis, Lactococcus lactis subsp. lactis, Pediococcus pentosaceus, and Lactobacillus spp. as the dominant species of the raw wheat flour. At the end of propagation, one autochthonous strain of L. sanfranciscensis was found in all the sourdoughs. Except for L. brevis, strains of the above species were variously found in the mature sourdoughs. Persistent starters were found in association with other biotypes of L. sanfranciscensis and with W. confusa or L. plantarum. Sourdoughs were characterized for acidification, quotient of fermentation, free amino acids, and community-level catabolic profiles by USING Biolog 96-well Eco microplates. In particular, catabolic profiles of sourdoughs containing persistent starters behaved similarly and were clearly differentiated from the others. The three persistent starters were further used for the production of sourdoughs and propagated by using another wheat flour whose lactic acid bacterium population in part differed from the previous one. Also, in this case all three starter strains persisted during propagation. PMID:19088320

Isolation mediates persistent founder effects on zooplankton colonisation in new temporary ponds

PubMed Central

Badosa, Anna; Frisch, Dagmar; Green, Andy J.; Rico, Ciro; Gómez, Africa

2017-01-01

Understanding the colonisation process in zooplankton is crucial for successful restoration of aquatic ecosystems. Here, we analyzed the clonal and genetic structure of the cyclical parthenogenetic rotifer Brachionus plicatilis by following populations established in new temporary ponds during the first three hydroperiods. Rotifer populations established rapidly after first flooding, although colonisation was ongoing throughout the study. Multilocus genotypes from 7 microsatellite loci suggested that most populations (10 of 14) were founded by few clones. The exception was one of the four populations that persisted throughout the studied hydroperiods, where high genetic diversity in the first hydroperiod suggested colonisation from a historical egg bank, and no increase in allelic diversity was detected with time. In contrast, in another of these four populations, we observed a progressive increase of allelic diversity. This population became less differentiated from the other populations suggesting effective gene flow soon after its foundation. Allelic diversity and richness remained low in the remaining two, more isolated, populations, suggesting little gene flow. Our results highlight the complexity of colonisation dynamics, with evidence for persistent founder effects in some ponds, but not in others, and with early immigration both from external source populations, and from residual, historical diapausing egg banks. PMID:28276459

Isolation mediates persistent founder effects on zooplankton colonisation in new temporary ponds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badosa, Anna; Frisch, Dagmar; Green, Andy J.; Rico, Ciro; Gómez, Africa

2017-03-01

Understanding the colonisation process in zooplankton is crucial for successful restoration of aquatic ecosystems. Here, we analyzed the clonal and genetic structure of the cyclical parthenogenetic rotifer Brachionus plicatilis by following populations established in new temporary ponds during the first three hydroperiods. Rotifer populations established rapidly after first flooding, although colonisation was ongoing throughout the study. Multilocus genotypes from 7 microsatellite loci suggested that most populations (10 of 14) were founded by few clones. The exception was one of the four populations that persisted throughout the studied hydroperiods, where high genetic diversity in the first hydroperiod suggested colonisation from a historical egg bank, and no increase in allelic diversity was detected with time. In contrast, in another of these four populations, we observed a progressive increase of allelic diversity. This population became less differentiated from the other populations suggesting effective gene flow soon after its foundation. Allelic diversity and richness remained low in the remaining two, more isolated, populations, suggesting little gene flow. Our results highlight the complexity of colonisation dynamics, with evidence for persistent founder effects in some ponds, but not in others, and with early immigration both from external source populations, and from residual, historical diapausing egg banks.

Millennium development goal four and child health inequities in indonesia: a systematic review of the literature.

PubMed

Schröders, Julia; Wall, Stig; Kusnanto, Hari; Ng, Nawi

2015-01-01

Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 calls for reducing mortality of children under-five years by two-thirds by 2015. Indonesia is on track to officially meet the MDG 4 targets by 2015 but progress has been far from universal. It has been argued that national level statistics, on which MDG 4 relies, obscure persistent health inequities within the country. Particularly inequities in child health are a major global public health challenge both for achieving MDG 4 in 2015 and beyond. This review aims to map out the situation of MDG 4 with respect to disadvantaged populations in Indonesia applying the Social Determinants of Health (SDH) framework. The specific objectives are to answer: Who are the disadvantaged populations? Where do they live? And why and how is the inequitable distribution of health explained in terms of the SDH framework? We retrieved studies through a systematic review of peer-reviewed and gray literature published in 1995-2014. The PRISMA-Equity 2012 statement was adapted to guide the methods of this review. The dependent variables were MDG 4-related indicators; the independent variable "disadvantaged populations" was defined by different categories of social differentiation using PROGRESS. Included texts were analyzed following the guidelines for deductive content analysis operationalized on the basis of the SDH framework. We identified 83 studies establishing evidence on more than 40 different determinants hindering an equitable distribution of child health in Indonesia. The most prominent determinants arise from the shortcomings within the rural health care system, the repercussions of food poverty coupled with low health literacy among parents, the impact of low household decision-making power of mothers, and the consequences of high persistent use of traditional birth attendants among ethnic minorities. This review calls for enhanced understanding of the determinants and pathways that create, detain, and overcome inequities in child health in resource constraint settings like Indonesia and the promotion of actionable health policy recommendations and tailored investments.

Individual-Based Spatially-Explicit Model of an Herbivore and Its Resource: The Effect of Habitat Reduction and Fragmentation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kostova, T; Carlsen, T; Kercher, J

2002-06-17

We present an individual-based, spatially-explicit model of the dynamics of a small mammal and its resource. The life histories of each individual animal are modeled separately. The individuals can have the status of residents or wanderers and belong to behaviorally differing groups of juveniles or adults and males or females. Their territory defending and monogamous behavior is taken into consideration. The resource, green vegetation, grows depending on seasonal climatic characteristics and is diminished due to the herbivore's grazing. Other specifics such as a varying personal energetic level due to feeding and starvation of the individuals, mating preferences, avoidance of competitors,more » dispersal of juveniles, as a result of site overgrazing, etc. are included in the model. We determined model parameters from real data for the species Microtus ochrogaster (prairie vole). The simulations are done for a case of an enclosed habitat without predators or other species competitors. The goal of the study is to find the relation between size of habitat and population persistence. The experiments with the model show the populations go extinct due to severe overgrazing, but that the length of population persistence depends on the area of the habitat as well as on the presence of fragmentation. Additionally, the total population size of the vole population obtained during the simulations exhibits yearly fluctuations as well as multi-yearly peaks of fluctuations. This dynamics is similar to the one observed in prairie vole field studies.« less

Persistence, impacts and environmental drivers of covert infections in invertebrate hosts.

PubMed

Fontes, Inês; Hartikainen, Hanna; Williams, Chris; Okamura, Beth

2017-11-02

Persistent covert infections of the myxozoan, Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae, in primary invertebrate hosts (the freshwater bryozoan, Fredericella sultana) have been proposed to represent a reservoir for proliferative kidney disease in secondary fish hosts. However, we have limited understanding of how covert infections persist and vary in bryozoan populations over time and space and how they may impact these populations. In addition, previous studies have likely underestimated covert infection prevalence. To improve our understanding of the dynamics, impacts and implications of covert infections we employed a highly sensitive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay and undertook the first investigation of covert infections in the field over an annual period by sampling bryozoans every 45 days from three populations within each of three rivers. Covert infections persisted throughout the year and prevalence varied within and between rivers, but were often > 50%. Variation in temperature and water chemistry were linked with changes in prevalence in a manner consistent with the maintenance of covert infections during periods of low productivity and thus poor growth conditions for both bryozoans and T. bryosalmonae. The presence and increased severity of covert infections reduced host growth but only when bryozoans were also investing in the production of overwintering propagules (statoblasts). However, because statoblast production is transitory, this effect is unlikely to greatly impact the capacity of bryozoan populations to act as persistent sources of infections and hence potential disease outbreaks in farmed and wild fish populations. We demonstrate that covert infections are widespread and persist over space and time in bryozoan populations. To our knowledge, this is the first long-term study of covert infections in a field setting. Review of the results of this and previous studies enables us to identify key questions related to the ecology and evolution of covert infection strategies and associated host-parasite interactions.

Apparent competition with an invasive plant hastens the extinction of an endangered lupine.

PubMed

Dangremond, Emily M; Pardini, Eleanor A; Knight, Tiffany M

2010-08-01

Invasive plants may compete with native plants by increasing the pressure of native consumers, a mechanism known as "apparent competition." Apparent competition can be as strong as or stronger than direct competition, but the role of apparent competition has rarely been examined in biological invasions. We used four years of demographic data and seed-removal experiments to determine if introduced grasses caused elevated levels of seed consumption on native plant species in a coastal dune system in California, USA. We show that the endangered, coastal dune plant Lupinus tidestromii experiences high levels of pre-dispersal seed consumption by the native rodent Peromyscus maniculatus due to its proximity to the invasive grass, Ammophila arenaria. We use stage-structured, stochastic population models to project that two of three study populations will decline toward extinction under ambient levels of consumption. For one of these declining populations, a relatively small decrease in consumption pressure should allow for persistence. We show that apparent competition with an invasive species significantly decreases the population growth rate and persistence of a native species. We expect that apparent competition is an important mechanism in other ecosystems because invasive plants often change habitat structure and plant-consumer interactions. Possible implications of the apparent-competition mechanism include selective extinction of species preferred by seed consumers in the presence of an invasive species and biological homogenization of communities toward non-preferred native plant species.

Historical data as a baseline for conservation: reconstructing long-term faunal extinction dynamics in Late Imperial–modern China

PubMed Central

Turvey, Samuel T.; Crees, Jennifer J.; Di Fonzo, Martina M. I.

2015-01-01

Extinction events typically represent extended processes of decline that cannot be reconstructed using short-term studies. Long-term archives are necessary to determine past baselines and the extent of human-caused biodiversity change, but the capacity of historical datasets to provide predictive power for conservation must be assessed within a robust analytical framework. Local Chinese gazetteers represent a more than 400-year country-level dataset containing abundant information on past environmental conditions and include extensive records of gibbons, which have a restricted present-day distribution but formerly occurred across much of China. Gibbons show pre-twentieth century range contraction, with significant fragmentation by the mid-eighteenth century and population loss escalating in the late nineteenth century. Isolated gibbon populations persisted for about 40 years before local extinction. Populations persisted for longer at higher elevations, and disappeared earlier from northern and eastern regions, with the biogeography of population loss consistent with the contagion model of range collapse in response to human demographic expansion spreading directionally across China. The long-term Chinese historical record can track extinction events and human interactions with the environment across much longer timescales than are usually addressed in ecology, contributing novel baselines for conservation and an increased understanding of extinction dynamics and species vulnerability or resilience to human pressures. PMID:26246553

Historical data as a baseline for conservation: reconstructing long-term faunal extinction dynamics in Late Imperial-modern China.

PubMed

Turvey, Samuel T; Crees, Jennifer J; Di Fonzo, Martina M I

2015-08-22

Extinction events typically represent extended processes of decline that cannot be reconstructed using short-term studies. Long-term archives are necessary to determine past baselines and the extent of human-caused biodiversity change, but the capacity of historical datasets to provide predictive power for conservation must be assessed within a robust analytical framework. Local Chinese gazetteers represent a more than 400-year country-level dataset containing abundant information on past environmental conditions and include extensive records of gibbons, which have a restricted present-day distribution but formerly occurred across much of China. Gibbons show pre-twentieth century range contraction, with significant fragmentation by the mid-eighteenth century and population loss escalating in the late nineteenth century. Isolated gibbon populations persisted for about 40 years before local extinction. Populations persisted for longer at higher elevations, and disappeared earlier from northern and eastern regions, with the biogeography of population loss consistent with the contagion model of range collapse in response to human demographic expansion spreading directionally across China. The long-term Chinese historical record can track extinction events and human interactions with the environment across much longer timescales than are usually addressed in ecology, contributing novel baselines for conservation and an increased understanding of extinction dynamics and species vulnerability or resilience to human pressures. © 2015 The Authors.

Psychological effect on single-species population models in a polluted environment.

PubMed

Wei, Fengying; Chen, Lihong

2017-08-01

We formulate and investigate the psychological effect of single-species population models in a polluted environment in this paper. For the deterministic single-species population model, the conditions that guarantee the local extinction and persistence in the mean are derived firstly. We then show that, around the pollution-free equilibrium, the stochastic single-species population is weakly persistent in the mean, and is stochastically permanent under some conditions. As a consequence, some numerical simulations demonstrate the efficiency of the main results. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reducing Oral Health Disparities: A Focus on Social and Cultural Determinants

PubMed Central

Patrick, Donald L; Lee, Rosanna Shuk Yin; Nucci, Michele; Grembowski, David; Jolles, Carol Zane; Milgrom, Peter

2006-01-01

Oral health is essential to the general health and well-being of individuals and the population. Yet significant oral health disparities persist in the U.S. population because of a web of influences that include complex cultural and social processes that affect both oral health and access to effective dental health care. This paper introduces an organizing framework for addressing oral health disparities. We present and discuss how the multiple influences on oral health and oral health disparities operate using this framework. Interventions targeted at different causal pathways bring new directions and implications for research and policy in reducing oral health disparities. PMID:16934121

Ancient DNA Analysis Reveals High Frequency of European Lactase Persistence Allele (T-13910) in Medieval Central Europe

PubMed Central

Akgül, Gülfirde; Della Casa, Philippe; Rühli, Frank; Warinner, Christina

2014-01-01

Ruminant milk and dairy products are important food resources in many European, African, and Middle Eastern societies. These regions are also associated with derived genetic variants for lactase persistence. In mammals, lactase, the enzyme that hydrolyzes the milk sugar lactose, is normally down-regulated after weaning, but at least five human populations around the world have independently evolved mutations regulating the expression of the lactase-phlorizin-hydrolase gene. These mutations result in a dominant lactase persistence phenotype and continued lactase tolerance in adulthood. A single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) at C/T-13910 is responsible for most lactase persistence in European populations, but when and where the T-13910 polymorphism originated and the evolutionary processes by which it rose to high frequency in Europe have been the subject of strong debate. A history of dairying is presumed to be a prerequisite, but archaeological evidence is lacking. In this study, DNA was extracted from the dentine of 36 individuals excavated at a medieval cemetery in Dalheim, Germany. Eighteen individuals were successfully genotyped for the C/T-13910 SNP by molecular cloning and sequencing, of which 13 (72%) exhibited a European lactase persistence genotype: 44% CT, 28% TT. Previous ancient DNA-based studies found that lactase persistence genotypes fall below detection levels in most regions of Neolithic Europe. Our research shows that by AD 1200, lactase persistence frequency had risen to over 70% in this community in western Central Europe. Given that lactase persistence genotype frequency in present-day Germany and Austria is estimated at 71–80%, our results suggest that genetic lactase persistence likely reached modern levels before the historic population declines associated with the Black Death, thus excluding plague-associated evolutionary forces in the rise of lactase persistence in this region. This new evidence sheds light on the dynamic evolutionary history of the European lactase persistence trait and its global cultural implications. PMID:24465990

Temporal Genetic Dynamics of an Experimental, Biparental Field Population of Phytophthora capsici

PubMed Central

Carlson, Maryn O.; Gazave, Elodie; Gore, Michael A.; Smart, Christine D.

2017-01-01

Defining the contributions of dispersal, reproductive mode, and mating system to the population structure of a pathogenic organism is essential to estimating its evolutionary potential. After introduction of the devastating plant pathogen, Phytophthora capsici, into a grower’s field, a lack of aerial spore dispersal restricts migration. Once established, coexistence of both mating types results in formation of overwintering recombinant oospores, engendering persistent pathogen populations. To mimic these conditions, in 2008, we inoculated a field with two P. capsici isolates of opposite mating type. We analyzed pathogenic isolates collected in 2009–2013 from this experimental population, using genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism markers. By tracking heterozygosity across years, we show that the population underwent a generational shift; transitioning from exclusively F1 in 2009–2010, to multi-generational in 2011, and ultimately all inbred in 2012–2013. Survival of F1 oospores, characterized by heterozygosity excess, coupled with a low rate of selfing, delayed declines in heterozygosity due to inbreeding and attainment of equilibrium genotypic frequencies. Large allele and haplotype frequency changes in specific genomic regions accompanied the generational shift, representing putative signatures of selection. Finally, we identified an approximately 1.6 Mb region associated with mating type determination, constituting the first detailed genomic analysis of a mating type region (MTR) in Phytophthora. Segregation patterns in the MTR exhibited tropes of sex-linkage, where maintenance of allele frequency differences between isolates of opposite mating type was associated with elevated heterozygosity despite inbreeding. Characterizing the trajectory of this experimental system provides key insights into the processes driving persistent, sexual pathogen populations. PMID:28348576

Impact of selection and demography on the diffusion of lactase persistence.

PubMed

Gerbault, Pascale; Moret, Céline; Currat, Mathias; Sanchez-Mazas, Alicia

2009-07-24

The lactase enzyme allows lactose digestion in fresh milk. Its activity strongly decreases after the weaning phase in most humans, but persists at a high frequency in Europe and some nomadic populations. Two hypotheses are usually proposed to explain the particular distribution of the lactase persistence phenotype. The gene-culture coevolution hypothesis supposes a nutritional advantage of lactose digestion in pastoral populations. The calcium assimilation hypothesis suggests that carriers of the lactase persistence allele(s) (LCT*P) are favoured in high-latitude regions, where sunshine is insufficient to allow accurate vitamin-D synthesis. In this work, we test the validity of these two hypotheses on a large worldwide dataset of lactase persistence frequencies by using several complementary approaches. We first analyse the distribution of lactase persistence in various continents in relation to geographic variation, pastoralism levels, and the genetic patterns observed for other independent polymorphisms. Then we use computer simulations and a large database of archaeological dates for the introduction of domestication to explore the evolution of these frequencies in Europe according to different demographic scenarios and selection intensities. Our results show that gene-culture coevolution is a likely hypothesis in Africa as high LCT*P frequencies are preferentially found in pastoral populations. In Europe, we show that population history played an important role in the diffusion of lactase persistence over the continent. Moreover, selection pressure on lactase persistence has been very high in the North-western part of the continent, by contrast to the South-eastern part where genetic drift alone can explain the observed frequencies. This selection pressure increasing with latitude is highly compatible with the calcium assimilation hypothesis while the gene-culture coevolution hypothesis cannot be ruled out if a positively selected lactase gene was carried at the front of the expansion wave during the Neolithic transition in Europe.

Effects of low and high salinity regimes on seasonal gametogenesis of the ribbed mussel Geukensia granosissima in coastal Louisiana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Honig, Aaron; LaPeyre, Megan K.; Supan, John

2014-01-01

Benthic intertidal bivalves play an essential role in estuarine ecosystems by contributing to habitat provision, water filtration, and host vegetation productivity. As such, ecosystem level changes that impact population distributions and persistence of local bivalve populations may have large ecosystem level consequences, making it important to better understand the population ecology of native bivalves. In order to determine potential impacts of shifting salinity and temperature regimes along the northern Gulf of Mexico, the seasonal timing of gametogenesis in the Gulf estuarine ribbed mussel, Geukensia granossisima, was examined across a salinity gradient in southeastern Louisiana, from July 2011 through October 2012. Ten mussels were randomly sampled monthly from low (~ 5) and high (~25) salinity marsh sites in southeastern Louisiana, and histologically processed to determine the seasonal progression of gametogenesis. Peak ripeness occurred at both sites between April and September, was positively correlated with temperature, and coincided with seasonal shifts in salinity. Mussels located in lower salinity waters demonstrated a shorter period of gametogenesis, and lower rates of ripeness indicating that changes in salinity regimes may impact long-term population dynamics.

Demographic stability metrics for conservation prioritization of isolated populations.

PubMed

Finn, Debra S; Bogan, Michael T; Lytle, David A

2009-10-01

Systems of geographically isolated habitat patches house species that occur naturally as small, disjunct populations. Many of these species are of conservation concern, particularly under the interacting influences of isolation and rapid global change. One potential conservation strategy is to prioritize the populations most likely to persist through change and act as sources for future recolonization of less stable localities. We propose an approach to classify long-term population stability (and, presumably, future persistence potential) with composite demographic metrics derived from standard population-genetic data. Stability metrics can be related to simple habitat measures for a straightforward method of classifying localities to inform conservation management. We tested these ideas in a system of isolated desert headwater streams with mitochondrial sequence data from 16 populations of a flightless aquatic insect. Populations exhibited a wide range of stability scores, which were significantly predicted by dry-season aquatic habitat size. This preliminary test suggests strong potential for our proposed method of classifying isolated populations according to persistence potential. The approach is complementary to existing methods for prioritizing local habitats according to diversity patterns and should be tested further in other systems and with additional loci to inform composite demographic stability scores.

Persistent Pain Quality as a Novel Approach to Assessing Risk for Disability in Community-Dwelling Elders with Chronic Pain.

PubMed

Thakral, Manu; Shi, Ling; Foust, Janice B; Patel, Kushang V; Shmerling, Robert H; Bean, Jonathan F; Leveille, Suzanne G

2018-06-18

This study aims to test whether persistent pain quality is associated with incident or worsening disability in four domains: mobility, ADL and IADL difficulty and physical performance. From the MOBILIZE Boston Study, a population-based cohort of adults aged ≥70 years, we studied participants with chronic pain who endorsed at least one pain quality descriptor (N=398) and completed baseline and 18-month assessments. Pain quality was assessed using an adapted short-form McGill Pain Questionnaire with 20 pain quality descriptors in 3 categories: sensory, cognitive/affective, neuropathic. Persistence was defined as endorsing the same category at baseline and 18 months. Self-reported outcomes included mobility, ADL, and IADL difficulty. Physical performance was assessed using the Short Physical Performance Battery. After adjusting for baseline pain severity and other covariates, individuals with 3 persistent categories had a greater risk of developing new or worsening IADL difficulty relative to those with 1 persistent category (RR 2.69, 95% CI 1.34, 7.79). Similar results were observed for ADL difficulty (RR 5.83, 95% CI 1.32, 25.85) but no differences were noted in risk for mobility difficulty. There was no significant linear trend in physical performance over 18 months according to number of persistent categories (p=0.68). Elders with persistent pain quality experienced a higher risk of developing new or worsening IADL and ADL disability with each additional category but not mobility difficulty or poorer physical performance. Longitudinal assessment of pain quality could be useful in determining risk for global disability among elders with chronic pain.

Disease dynamics and persistence of Musca domestica salivary gland hypertropy virus infections in laboratory house fly (Musca domestica) populations.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Past surveys of feral house fly populations have shown that Musca domestica salivary gland hypertrophy virus (MdSGHV) has a world-wide distribution with an average prevalence varying between 0.5% and 10%. How this adult-specific virus persists in nature is unknown. In the present study, experiments ...

Factors That Predict Persistence for Non-Immigrant, International Students at a Private, Four-Year University in Georgia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adams, Shawn M.

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to explore factors that predict the persistence of international, non-immigrant students in higher education. A sample of international students from a four-year private university in Georgia served as the focused population for this study. Persistence research asserts that six factors predict persistence: academic…

American pikas (Ochotona princeps) in northwestern Nevada: A newly discovered population at a low-elevation site

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beever, E.A.; Wilkening, J.L.; McIvor, D.E.; Weber, S.S.; Brussard, P.F.

2008-01-01

The central tenet of island biogeography theory - that species assemblages on islands are functions of island area, isolation from mainlands, and vicariance - has been altered by the demonstrable effects that rapid climate change is imposing on insular faunas, at least in isolated mountaintops. Although populations of American pikas (Ochotona princeps) continue to suffer extirpations, and although the lower bounds of the pika's elevational distribution are shifting upslope across the Great Basin, we report here on the new discovery of a low-elevation population of pikas in a mountain range from which they had not been reported previously. This discovery, particularly in the context of relatively rapid ecological change, highlights the importance of seeking out original sources of information and performing spatially extensive fieldwork. Results presented here further illustrate that although thermal influences appear to be the single strongest determinant of pika distribution currently, such influences interact with a number of other factors to determine persistence.

[Health and quality of life vs. occupational activity].

PubMed

Kowalska, Małgorzata; Szemik, Szymon

The level of quality of life and health status of the population largely depends on the determinants related to occupational activity. The results of reviewed bibliography indicate a significant and growing importance of employment conditions on the quality of life and population health status in most countries of the world, especially in those with market economy. Of the evaluated determinants the following factors should be listed in particular: sources and the amount of income, stability of the income and employment, the nature of work and the degree of job satisfaction, as well as autonomy and career prospects. Moreover, they proved that the situation of persisting and long-term unemployment and precarious employment leads to a significant deterioration in the quality of life and health, especially among young people. In conclusion, the study of quality of life and population health status should take into consideration factors related to occupational activity. Med Pr 2016;67(5):663-671. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under a CC BY-NC 3.0 PL license.

Fumarate-Mediated Persistence of Escherichia coli against Antibiotics

PubMed Central

Kim, Jun-Seob; Cho, Da-Hyeong; Heo, Paul; Jung, Suk-Chae; Park, Myungseo; Oh, Eun-Joong; Sung, Jaeyun; Kim, Pan-Jun; Lee, Suk-Chan; Lee, Dae-Hee; Lee, Sarah; Lee, Choong Hwan; Shin, Dongwoo

2016-01-01

Bacterial persisters are a small fraction of quiescent cells that survive in the presence of lethal concentrations of antibiotics. They can regrow to give rise to a new population that has the same vulnerability to the antibiotics as did the parental population. Although formation of bacterial persisters in the presence of various antibiotics has been documented, the molecular mechanisms by which these persisters tolerate the antibiotics are still controversial. We found that amplification of the fumarate reductase operon (FRD) in Escherichia coli led to a higher frequency of persister formation. The persister frequency of E. coli was increased when the cells contained elevated levels of intracellular fumarate. Genetic perturbations of the electron transport chain (ETC), a metabolite supplementation assay, and even the toxin-antitoxin-related hipA7 mutation indicated that surplus fumarate markedly elevated the E. coli persister frequency. An E. coli strain lacking succinate dehydrogenase (SDH), thereby showing a lower intracellular fumarate concentration, was killed ∼1,000-fold more effectively than the wild-type strain in the stationary phase. It appears that SDH and FRD represent a paired system that gives rise to and maintains E. coli persisters by producing and utilizing fumarate, respectively. PMID:26810657

Increased circulating stem cells and better cognitive performance in traumatic brain injury subjects following hyperbaric oxygen therapy.

PubMed

Shandley, Sabrina; Wolf, E George; Schubert-Kappan, Christine M; Baugh, Laura M; Richards, Michael F; Prye, Jennifer; Arizpe, Helen M; Kalns, John

2017-01-01

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) may cause persistent cognitive dysfunction. A pilot clinical study was performed to determine if hyperbaric oxygen (HBO₂) treatment improves cognitive performance. It was hypothesized that stem cells, mobilized by HBO₂ treatment, are recruited to repair damaged neuronal tissue. This hypothesis was tested by measuring the relative abundance of stem cells in peripheral blood and cognitive performance during this clinical trial. The subject population consisted of 28 subjects with persistent cognitive impairment caused by mild to moderate TBI suffered during military deployment to Iraq or Afghanistan. Fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS) analysis was performed for stem cell markers in peripheral blood and correlated with variables resulting from standard tests of cognitive performance and post-traumatic stress disorder: ImPACT, BrainCheckers and PCL-M test results. HBO₂ treatment correlated with stem cell mobilization as well as increased cognitive performance. Together these results support the hypothesis that stem cell mobilization may be required for cognitive improvement in this population. Copyright© Undersea and Hyperbaric Medical Society.

First integrative trend analysis for a great ape species in Borneo.

PubMed

Santika, Truly; Ancrenaz, Marc; Wilson, Kerrie A; Spehar, Stephanie; Abram, Nicola; Banes, Graham L; Campbell-Smith, Gail; Curran, Lisa; d'Arcy, Laura; Delgado, Roberto A; Erman, Andi; Goossens, Benoit; Hartanto, Herlina; Houghton, Max; Husson, Simon J; Kühl, Hjalmar S; Lackman, Isabelle; Leiman, Ashley; Llano Sanchez, Karmele; Makinuddin, Niel; Marshall, Andrew J; Meididit, Ari; Mengersen, Kerrie; Musnanda; Nardiyono; Nurcahyo, Anton; Odom, Kisar; Panda, Adventus; Prasetyo, Didik; Purnomo; Rafiastanto, Andjar; Raharjo, Slamet; Ratnasari, Dessy; Russon, Anne E; Santana, Adi H; Santoso, Eddy; Sapari, Iman; Sihite, Jamartin; Suyoko, Ahmat; Tjiu, Albertus; Utami-Atmoko, Sri Suci; van Schaik, Carel P; Voigt, Maria; Wells, Jessie; Wich, Serge A; Willems, Erik P; Meijaard, Erik

2017-07-07

For many threatened species the rate and drivers of population decline are difficult to assess accurately: species' surveys are typically restricted to small geographic areas, are conducted over short time periods, and employ a wide range of survey protocols. We addressed methodological challenges for assessing change in the abundance of an endangered species. We applied novel methods for integrating field and interview survey data for the critically endangered Bornean orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus), allowing a deeper understanding of the species' persistence through time. Our analysis revealed that Bornean orangutan populations have declined at a rate of 25% over the last 10 years. Survival rates of the species are lowest in areas with intermediate rainfall, where complex interrelations between soil fertility, agricultural productivity, and human settlement patterns influence persistence. These areas also have highest threats from human-wildlife conflict. Survival rates are further positively associated with forest extent, but are lower in areas where surrounding forest has been recently converted to industrial agriculture. Our study highlights the urgency of determining specific management interventions needed in different locations to counter the trend of decline and its associated drivers.

Viral antibody dynamics in a chiropteran host

PubMed Central

Baker, Kate S; Suu-Ire, Richard; Barr, Jennifer; Hayman, David T S; Broder, Christopher C; Horton, Daniel L; Durrant, Christopher; Murcia, Pablo R; Cunningham, Andrew A; Wood, James L N

2014-01-01

Bats host many viruses that are significant for human and domestic animal health, but the dynamics of these infections in their natural reservoir hosts remain poorly elucidated. In these, and other, systems, there is evidence that seasonal life-cycle events drive infection dynamics, directly impacting the risk of exposure to spillover hosts. Understanding these dynamics improves our ability to predict zoonotic spillover from the reservoir hosts. To this end, we followed henipavirus antibody levels of >100 individual E. helvum in a closed, captive, breeding population over a 30-month period, using a powerful novel antibody quantitation method. We demonstrate the presence of maternal antibodies in this system and accurately determine their longevity. We also present evidence of population-level persistence of viral infection and demonstrate periods of increased horizontal virus transmission associated with the pregnancy/lactation period. The novel findings of infection persistence and the effect of pregnancy on viral transmission, as well as an accurate quantitation of chiropteran maternal antiviral antibody half-life, provide fundamental baseline data for the continued study of viral infections in these important reservoir hosts. PMID:24111634

Differences in problem-solving between canid populations: Do domestication and lifetime experience affect persistence?

PubMed

Brubaker, Lauren; Dasgupta, Sandipan; Bhattacharjee, Debottam; Bhadra, Anindita; Udell, Monique A R

2017-07-01

Past research has suggested that a variety of factors, phylogenetic and ontogenetic, play a role in how canines behave during problem-solving tasks and the degree to which the presence of a human influences their problem-solving behaviour. While comparisons between socialized wolves and domestic dogs have commonly been used to tease apart these predictive factors, in many cases a single dog population, often pets, have been used for these comparisons. Less is understood about how different populations of dogs may behave when compared with wolves, or with each other, during an independent problem-solving task. This experiment compared the independent persistence of four populations of canines (two groups of pet domestic dogs, a group of free-ranging domestic dogs, and human-socialized wolves) on an independent problem-solving task in the presence of an on looking human. Results showed that wolves persisted the most at the task while free-ranging dogs persisted the least. Free-ranging dogs gazed at the human experimenter for the longest durations during the task. While further research is needed to understand why these differences exist, this study demonstrates that dogs, even those living outside human homes as scavengers, show comparatively low levels of persistence when confronted with a solvable task in the presence of a human as well as significantly greater duration of human-directed gaze when compared with wolves.

Evaluating an icon of population persistence: the Devil's Hole pupfish

PubMed Central

Reed, J. Michael; Stockwell, Craig A.

2014-01-01

The Devil's Hole pupfish Cyprinodon diabolis has iconic status among conservation biologists because it is one of the World's most vulnerable species. Furthermore, C. diabolis is the most widely cited example of a persistent, small, isolated vertebrate population; a chronic exception to the rule that small populations do not persist long in isolation. It is widely asserted that this species has persisted in small numbers (less than 400 adults) for 10 000–20 000 years, but this assertion has never been evaluated. Here, we analyse the time series of count data for this species, and we estimate time to coalescence from microsatellite data to evaluate this hypothesis. We conclude that mean time to extinction is approximately 360–2900 years (median 410–1800), with less than a 2.1% probability of persisting 10 000 years. Median times to coalescence varied from 217 to 2530 years, but all five approximations had wide credible intervals. Our analyses suggest that Devil's Hole pupfish colonized this pool well after the Pleistocene Lakes receded, probably within the last few hundred to few thousand years; this could have occurred through human intervention. PMID:25232135

Implications of Fine-Grained Habitat Fragmentation and Road Mortality for Jaguar Conservation in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil.

PubMed

Cullen, Laury; Stanton, Jessica C; Lima, Fernando; Uezu, Alexandre; Perilli, Miriam L L; Akçakaya, H Reşit

2016-01-01

Jaguar (Panthera onca) populations in the Upper Paraná River, in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest region, live in a landscape that includes highly fragmented areas as well as relatively intact ones. We developed a model of jaguar habitat suitability in this region, and based on this habitat model, we developed a spatially structured metapopulation model of the jaguar populations in this area to analyze their viability, the potential impact of road mortality on the populations' persistence, and the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation. In more highly fragmented populations, density of jaguars per unit area is lower and density of roads per jaguar is higher. The populations with the most fragmented habitat were predicted to have much lower persistence in the next 100 years when the model included no dispersal, indicating that the persistence of these populations are dependent to a large extent on dispersal from other populations. This, in turn, indicates that the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation may lead to source-sink dynamics, whereby populations with highly fragmented habitat are maintained only by dispersal from populations with less fragmented habitat. This study demonstrates the utility of linking habitat and demographic models in assessing impacts on species living in fragmented landscapes.

Implications of Fine-Grained Habitat Fragmentation and Road Mortality for Jaguar Conservation in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil

PubMed Central

Cullen, Laury; Stanton, Jessica C.; Lima, Fernando; Uezu, Alexandre; Perilli, Miriam L. L.; Akçakaya, H. Reşit

2016-01-01

Jaguar (Panthera onca) populations in the Upper Paraná River, in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest region, live in a landscape that includes highly fragmented areas as well as relatively intact ones. We developed a model of jaguar habitat suitability in this region, and based on this habitat model, we developed a spatially structured metapopulation model of the jaguar populations in this area to analyze their viability, the potential impact of road mortality on the populations' persistence, and the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation. In more highly fragmented populations, density of jaguars per unit area is lower and density of roads per jaguar is higher. The populations with the most fragmented habitat were predicted to have much lower persistence in the next 100 years when the model included no dispersal, indicating that the persistence of these populations are dependent to a large extent on dispersal from other populations. This, in turn, indicates that the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation may lead to source-sink dynamics, whereby populations with highly fragmented habitat are maintained only by dispersal from populations with less fragmented habitat. This study demonstrates the utility of linking habitat and demographic models in assessing impacts on species living in fragmented landscapes. PMID:27973584

Overwintering strategies of migratory birds: a novel approach for estimating seasonal movement patterns of residents and transients

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruiz-Gutierrez, Viviana; Kendall, William L.; Saracco, James F.; White, Gary C.

2016-01-01

Our understanding of movement patterns in wildlife populations has played an important role in current ecological knowledge and can inform landscape conservation decisions. Direct measures of movement can be obtained using marked individuals, but this requires tracking individuals across a landscape or multiple sites.We demonstrate how movements can be estimated indirectly using single-site, capture–mark–recapture (CMR) data with a multi-state open robust design with state uncertainty model (MSORD-SU). We treat residence and transience as two phenotypic states of overwintering migrants and use time- and state-dependent probabilities of site entry and persistence as indirect measures of movement. We applied the MSORD-SU to data on eight species of overwintering Neotropical birds collected in 14 countries between 2002 and 2011. In addition to entry and persistence probabilities, we estimated the proportions of residents at a study site and mean residence times.We identified overwintering movement patterns and residence times that contrasted with prior categorizations of territoriality. Most species showed an evidence of residents entering sites at multiple time intervals, with transients tending to enter between peak resident movement times. Persistence and the proportion of residents varied by latitude, but were not always positively correlated for a given species.Synthesis and applications. Our results suggest that migratory songbirds commonly move among habitats during the overwintering period. Substantial proportions of populations appear to be comprised of transient individuals, and residents tend to persist at specific sites for relatively short periods of time. This information on persistence and movement patterns should be explored for specific habitats to guide landscape management on the wintering grounds, such as determining which habitats are conserved or restored as part of certification programmes of tropical agroforestry crops. We suggest that research and conservation efforts on Neotropical migrant songbirds focus on identifying landscape configurations and regional habitat networks that support these diverse overwintering strategies to secure full life cycle conservation.

[Stunting in Mexico in the last quarter century: analysis of four national surveys].

PubMed

Rivera-Dommarco, Juan Ángel; Cuevas-Nasu, Lucía; González de Cosío, Teresita; Shamah-Levy, Teresa; García-Feregrino, Raquel

2013-01-01

To describe the magnitude, distribution, and trends of undernutrition and overweight from 1988 to 2006, and provide recommendations for their erradication. Antrhopometric indicators of nutritional status in children <5 y from four surveys were analyzed. Despite its significant reduction in the study period, stunting remains as a public health problem, with the highest prevalences in indigenous population, the rural south and the lowest living conditions quintile. Several policies and programs have demonstrated effectiveness, but implementation challenges persist among the poorest population, particularly in indigenous households. Measures for improving the effectiveness of the nutrition policies and programs, particularly among the indigenous and poorest population, are provided, which include adjusting current programs according to the results of evaluations, and the implementation of policies that address the social determinants of undernutrition.

Using resilience and resistance concepts to manage persistent threats to sagebrush ecosystems and greater sage-grouse

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chambers, Jeanne C.; Maestas, Jeremy D.; Pyke, David A.; Boyd, Chad S.; Pellant, Mike; Wuenschel, Amarina

2017-01-01

Conservation of imperiled species often demands addressing a complex suite of threats that undermine species viability. Regulatory approaches, such as the US Endangered Species Act (1973), tend to focus on anthropogenic threats through adoption of policies and regulatory mechanisms. However, persistent ecosystem-based threats, such as invasive species and altered disturbance regimes, remain critical issues for most at-risk species considered to be conservation-reliant. We describe an approach for addressing persistent ecosystem threats to at-risk species based on ecological resilience and resistance concepts that is currently being used to conserve greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)and sagebrush ecosystems. The approach links biophysical indicators of ecosystem resilience and resistance with species-specific population and habitat requisites in a risk-based framework to identify priority areas for management and guide allocation of resources to manage persistent ecosystem-based threats. US federal land management and natural resource agencies have adopted this framework as a foundation for prioritizing sage-grouse conservation resources and determining effective restoration and management strategies. Because threats and strategies to address them cross-cut program areas, an integrated approach that includes wildland fire operations, postfire rehabilitation, fuels management, and habitat restoration is being used. We believe this approach is applicable to species conservation in other largely intact ecosystems with persistent, ecosystem-based threats.

Persistent impacts of West Nile virus on North American bird populations

PubMed Central

George, T. Luke; Harrigan, Ryan J.; LaManna, Joseph A.; DeSante, David F.; Saracco, James F.; Smith, Thomas B.

2015-01-01

Since its introduction to North America in 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) has had devastating impacts on native host populations, but to date these impacts have been difficult to measure. Using a continental-scale dataset comprised of a quarter-million birds captured over nearly two decades and a recently developed model of WNV risk, we estimated the impact of this emergent disease on the survival of avian populations. We find that populations were negatively affected by WNV in 23 of the 49 species studied (47%). We distinguished two groups of species: those for which WNV negatively impacted survival only during initial spread of the disease (n = 11), and those that show no signs of recovery since disease introduction (n = 12). Results provide a novel example of the taxonomic breadth and persistent impacts of this wildlife disease on a continental scale. Phylogenetic analyses further identify groups (New World sparrows, finches, and vireos) disproportionally affected by temporary or persistent WNV effects, suggesting an evolutionary dimension of disease risk. Identifying the factors affecting the persistence of a disease across host species is critical to mitigating its effects, particularly in a world marked by rapid anthropogenic change. PMID:26578774

Long-term in situ persistence of biodiversity in tropical sky islands revealed by landscape genomics.

PubMed

Mastretta-Yanes, Alicia; Xue, Alexander T; Moreno-Letelier, Alejandra; Jorgensen, Tove H; Alvarez, Nadir; Piñero, Daniel; Emerson, Brent C

2018-01-01

Tropical mountains are areas of high species richness and endemism. Two historical phenomena may have contributed to this: (i) fragmentation and isolation of habitats may have promoted the genetic differentiation of populations and increased the possibility of allopatric divergence and speciation and (ii) the mountain areas may have allowed long-term population persistence during global climate fluctuations. These two phenomena have been studied using either species occurrence data or estimating species divergence times. However, only few studies have used intraspecific genetic data to analyse the mechanisms by which endemism may emerge at the microevolutionary scale. Here, we use landscape analysis of genomic SNP data sampled from two high-elevation plant species from an archipelago of tropical sky islands (the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt) to test for population genetic differentiation, synchronous demographic changes and habitat persistence. We show that genetic differentiation can be explained by the degree of glacial habitat connectivity among mountains and that mountains have facilitated the persistence of populations throughout glacial/interglacial cycles. Our results support the ongoing role of tropical mountains as cradles for biodiversity by uncovering cryptic differentiation and limits to gene flow. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effect of spinach cultivar and bacterial adherence factors on survival of Escherichia coli O157:H7 on spinach leaves.

PubMed

Macarisin, Dumitru; Patel, Jitendra; Bauchan, Gary; Giron, Jorge A; Ravishankar, Sadhana

2013-11-01

Similar to phytopathogens, human bacterial pathogens have been shown to colonize the plant phylloplane. In addition to environmental factors, such as temperature, UV, relative humidity, etc., the plant cultivar and, specifically, the leaf blade morphological characteristics may affect the persistence of enteropathogens on leafy greens. This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of cultivar-dependent leaf topography and the role of strain phenotypic characteristics on Escherichia coli O157:H7 persistence on organic spinach. Spinach cultivars Emilia, Lazio, Space, and Waitiki were experimentally inoculated with the foodborne E. coli O157:H7 isolate EDL933 and its isogenic mutants deficient in cellulose, curli, or both curli and cellulose production. Leaves of 6-week-old plants were inoculated with 6.5 log CFU per leaf in a biosafety level 2 growth chamber. At 0, 1, 7, and 14 days, E. coli O157:H7 populations were determined by plating on selective medium and verified by laser scanning confocal microscopy. Leaf morphology (blade roughness and stoma density) was evaluated by low-temperature and variable-pressure scanning electron microscopy. E. coli O157:H7 persistence on spinach was significantly affected by cultivar and strain phenotypic characteristics, specifically, the expression of curli. Leaf blade roughness and stoma density influenced the persistence of E. coli O157:H7 on spinach. Cultivar Waitiki, which had the greatest leaf roughness, supported significantly higher E. coli O157:H7 populations than the other cultivars. These two morphological characteristics of spinach cultivars should be taken into consideration in developing intervention strategies to enhance the microbial safety of leafy greens.

AFLP markers reveal high clonal diversity and extreme longevity in four key arctic-alpine species.

PubMed

de Witte, Lucienne C; Armbruster, Georg F J; Gielly, Ludovic; Taberlet, Pierre; Stöcklin, Jürg

2012-03-01

We investigated clonal diversity, genet size structure and genet longevity in populations of four arctic-alpine plants (Carex curvula, Dryas octopetala, Salix herbacea and Vaccinium uliginosum) to evaluate their persistence under past climatic oscillations and their potential resistance to future climate change. The size and number of genets were determined by an analysis of amplified fragment length polymorphisms and a standardized sampling design in several European arctic-alpine populations, where these species are dominant in the vegetation. Genet age was estimated by dividing the size by the annual horizontal size increment from in situ growth measurements. Clonal diversity was generally high but differed among species, and the frequency distribution of genet size was strongly left-skewed. The largest C. curvula genet had an estimated minimum age of c. 4100 years and a maximum age of c. 5000 years, although 84.8% of the genets in this species were <200 years old. The oldest genets of D. octopetala, S. herbacea and V. uliginosum were found to be at least 500, 450 and 1400 years old, respectively. These results indicate that individuals in the studied populations have survived pronounced climatic oscillations, including the Little Ice Age and the postindustrial warming. The presence of genets in all size classes and the dominance of presumably young individuals suggest repeated recruitment over time, a precondition for adaptation to changing environmental conditions. Together, persistence and continuous genet turnover may ensure maximum ecosystem resilience. Thus, our results indicate that long-lived clonal plants in arctic-alpine ecosystems can persist, despite considerable climatic change. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Persistence and extirpation in invaded landscapes: patch characteristics and connectivity determine effects of non-native predatory fish on native salamanders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pilliod, David S.; Arkle, Robert S.; Maxell, Bryce A.

2012-01-01

Studies have demonstrated negative effects of non-native, predatory fishes on native amphibians, yet it is still unclear why some amphibian populations persist, while others are extirpated, following fish invasion. We examined this question by developing habitat-based occupancy models for the long-toed salamander (Ambystoma macrodactylum) and nonnative fish using survey data from 1,749 water bodies across 470 catchments in the Northern Rocky Mountains, USA. We first modeled the habitat associations of salamanders at 468 fishless water bodies in 154 catchments where non-native fish were historically, and are currently, absent from the entire catchment. Wethen applied this habitat model to the complete data set to predict the probability of salamander occupancy in each water body, removing any effect of fish presence. Finally, we compared field-observed occurrences of salamanders and fish to modeled probability of salamander occupancy. Suitability models indicated that fish and salamanders had similar habitat preferences, possibly resulting in extirpations of salamander populations from entire catchments where suitable habitats were limiting. Salamanders coexisted with non-native fish in some catchments by using marginal quality, isolated (no inlet or outlet) habitats that remained fishless. They rarely coexisted with fish within individual water bodies and only where habitat quality was highest. Connectivity of water bodies via streams resulted in increased probability of fish invasion and consequently reduced probability of salamander occupancy.These results could be used to identify and prioritize catchments and water bodies where control measures would be most effective at restoring amphibian populations. Our approach could be useful as a framework for improved investigations into questions of persistence and extirpation of native species when non-native species have already become established.

Establishment and persistence of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) in disturbed soil as a function of an urban-rural macro-environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

ZISKA, L. H.; GEORGE, K.; FRENZ, D. A.

2006-09-28

No data are available on whether rising carbon dioxide concentration [CO 2] or increased air temperature can alter the establishment and persistence of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) within a plant community following soil disturbance. To determine ragweed longevity, we exposed disturbed soil with a common seed bank population to an in situ temperature and [CO 2] gradient along an urban-rural transect beginning in early 2002. No other consistent differences in meteorological variables (e.g. wind speed, humidity, PAR, tropospheric ozone) as a function of urbanization were documented over the course of the study (2002-2005). Above-ground measurements of biomass over thismore » period demonstrated that ragweed along the transect responded to urban induced increases in [CO 2]/temperature with peak biomass being observed at this location by the end of 2003. However, by the Fall of 2004, and continuing through 2005, urban ragweed populations had dwindled to a few plants. The temporal decline in ragweed populations was not associated with increased disease, herbivory or auto-allelopathy, but was part of a demographic reduction in the total number of annual plant species observed for the urban location. In a separate experiment, we showed that such a demographic shift is consistent with CO 2/temperature induced increases in biomass and litter accumulation, with a subsequent reduction in germination / survival of annual plant species. Overall, these data indicate that [CO 2]/temperature differences associated with urbanization may increase initial ragweed productivity and pollen production, but suggest that long-term, multi-year persistence of ragweed in the urban macro-environment may be dependent on other factors.« less

Evolution of nesting height in an endangered Hawaiian forest bird in response to a non-native predator.

PubMed

Vanderwerf, Eric A

2012-10-01

The majority of bird extinctions since 1800 have occurred on islands, and non-native predators have been the greatest threat to the persistence of island birds. Island endemic species often lack life-history traits and behaviors that reduce the probability of predation and they can become evolutionarily trapped if they are unable to adapt, but few studies have examined the ability of island species to respond to novel predators. The greatest threat to the persistence of the Oahu Elepaio (Chasiempis ibidis), an endangered Hawaiian forest bird, is nest predation by non-native black rats (Rattus rattus). I examined whether Oahu Elepaio nest placement has changed at the individual and population levels in response to rat predation by measuring nest height and determining whether each nest produced offspring from 1996 to 2011. Average height of Oahu Elepaio nests increased 50% over this 16-year period, from 7.9 m (SE 1.7) to 12.0 m (SE 1.1). There was no net change in height of sequential nests made by individual birds, which means individual elepaios have not learned to place nests higher. Nests ≤3 m off the ground produced offspring less often, and the proportion of such nests declined over time, which suggests that nest-building behavior has evolved through natural selection by predation. Nest success increased over time, which may increase the probability of long-term persistence of the species. Rat control may facilitate the evolution of nesting height by slowing the rate of population decline and providing time for this adaptive response to spread through the population. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

Patient- and family-centered performance measures focused on actionable processes of care for persistent and chronic critical illness: protocol for a systematic review.

PubMed

Rose, Louise; Istanboulian, Laura; Allum, Laura; Burry, Lisa; Dale, Craig; Hart, Nicholas; Kydonaki, Claire; Ramsay, Pam; Pattison, Natalie; Connolly, Bronwen

2017-04-17

Approximately 5 to 10% of critically ill patients transition from acute critical illness to a state of persistent and in some cases chronic critical illness. These patients have unique and complex needs that require a change in the clinical management plan and overall goals of care to a focus on rehabilitation, symptom relief, discharge planning, and in some cases, end-of-life care. However, existing indicators and measures of care quality, and tools such as checklists, that foster implementation of best practices, may not be sufficiently inclusive in terms of actionable processes of care relevant to these patients. Therefore, the aim of this systematic review is to identify the processes of care, performance measures, quality indicators, and outcomes including reports of patient/family experience described in the current evidence base relevant to patients with persistent or chronic critical illness and their family members. Two authors will independently search from inception to November 2016: MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library, PROSPERO, the Joanna Briggs Institute and the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. We will include all study designs except case series/reports of <10 patients describing their study population (aged 18 years and older) using terms such as persistent critical illness, chronic critical illness, and prolonged mechanical ventilation. Two authors will independently perform data extraction and complete risk of bias assessment. Our primary outcome is to determine actionable processes of care and interventions deemed relevant to patients experiencing persistent or chronic critical illness and their family members. Secondary outcomes include (1) performance measures and quality indicators considered relevant to our population of interest and (2) themes related to patient and family experience. We will use our systematic review findings, with data from patient, family member and clinician interviews, and a subsequent consensus building process to inform the development of quality metrics and tools to measure processes of care, outcomes and experience for patients experiencing persistent or chronic critical illness and their family members. PROSPERO CRD42016052715.

Zoonotic disease in a peripheral population: persistence and transmission of Leishmania major in a putative sink-source system in the Negev Highlands, Israel.

PubMed

Berger, Ruti; Wasserberg, Gideon; Warburg, Alon; Orshan, Laor; Kotler, Burt P

2014-08-01

Populations at the edge of their geographic distributions are referred to as peripheral populations. Very little attention has been given to this topic in the context of persistence of infectious disease in natural populations. In this study, we examined this question using zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) caused by Leishmania major in the Negev Desert of Israel as a model system. Here, we suggest that the regional persistence of Phlebotomus papatasi populations and L. major transmission in the Sede Boqer region could be explained through processes akin to sink-source and/or mainland-island metapopulation dynamics. Given its potentially enzootically superior ecological conditions, we hypothesize that the Zin Valley ecotope constitutes the "mainland" or the "source" patch for the Sede Boqer area where L. major transmission is persistent and resistant to local extinctions (die-outs) whereas the local sand fly populations on the Zin Plateau ("island patch" or "sink patch") are more prone to local extinctions. Between 2007 and 2008, we trapped sand flies and sand rats in the two areas and compared sand fly abundance and L. major infection prevalence in both. In both 2007 and 2008, sand fly abundance was high and continuous in the Zin Wadi but low and discontinuous in the Zin Plateau. Infection prevalence of sand rats was significantly higher in the Wadi (13%) compared with the Zin Plateau (3%). Minimum infection rate in sand flies did not differ significantly between the two areas. Overall, our results are consistent with the premise that the Zin Valley population is relatively robust in terms of L. major transmission, whereas transmission is potentially more tenuous in the plateau. Understanding the biotic and abiotic processes enabling the persistence of L. major and other vector-borne diseases in peripheral disease foci is important for predicting the effect of anthropogenic land use and climate change.

Zoonotic Disease in a Peripheral Population: Persistence and Transmission of Leishmania major in a Putative Sink-Source System in the Negev Highlands, Israel

PubMed Central

Berger, Ruti; Warburg, Alon; Orshan, Laor; Kotler, Burt P.

2014-01-01

Abstract Populations at the edge of their geographic distributions are referred to as peripheral populations. Very little attention has been given to this topic in the context of persistence of infectious disease in natural populations. In this study, we examined this question using zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) caused by Leishmania major in the Negev Desert of Israel as a model system. Here, we suggest that the regional persistence of Phlebotomus papatasi populations and L. major transmission in the Sede Boqer region could be explained through processes akin to sink-source and/or mainland-island metapopulation dynamics. Given its potentially enzootically superior ecological conditions, we hypothesize that the Zin Valley ecotope constitutes the “mainland” or the “source” patch for the Sede Boqer area where L. major transmission is persistent and resistant to local extinctions (die-outs) whereas the local sand fly populations on the Zin Plateau (“island patch” or “sink patch”) are more prone to local extinctions. Between 2007 and 2008, we trapped sand flies and sand rats in the two areas and compared sand fly abundance and L. major infection prevalence in both. In both 2007 and 2008, sand fly abundance was high and continuous in the Zin Wadi but low and discontinuous in the Zin Plateau. Infection prevalence of sand rats was significantly higher in the Wadi (13%) compared with the Zin Plateau (3%). Minimum infection rate in sand flies did not differ significantly between the two areas. Overall, our results are consistent with the premise that the Zin Valley population is relatively robust in terms of L. major transmission, whereas transmission is potentially more tenuous in the plateau. Understanding the biotic and abiotic processes enabling the persistence of L. major and other vector-borne diseases in peripheral disease foci is important for predicting the effect of anthropogenic land use and climate change. PMID:25072990

Persistence and diversity of directional landscape connectivity improves biomass pulsing in expanding and contracting wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yurek, Simeon; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Trexler, Joel C.; Klassen, Stephen; Larsen, Laurel G.

2016-01-01

In flood-pulsed ecosystems, hydrology and landscape structure mediate transfers of energy up the food chain by expanding and contracting in area, enabling spatial expansion and growth of fish populations during rising water levels, and subsequent concentration during the drying phase. Connectivity of flooded areas is dynamic as waters rise and fall, and is largely determined by landscape geomorphology and anisotropy. We developed a methodology for simulating fish dispersal and concentration on spatially-explicit, dynamic floodplain wetlands with pulsed food web dynamics, to evaluate how changes in connectivity through time contribute to the concentration of fish biomass that is essential for higher trophic levels. The model also tracks a connectivity index (DCI) over different compass directions to see if fish biomass dynamics can be related in a simple way to topographic pattern. We demonstrate the model for a seasonally flood-pulsed, oligotrophic system, the Everglades, where flow regimes have been greatly altered. Three dispersing populations of functional fish groups were simulated with empirically-based dispersal rules on two landscapes, and two twelve-year time series of managed water levels for those areas were applied. The topographies of the simulations represented intact and degraded ridge-and-slough landscapes (RSL). Simulation results showed large pulses of biomass concentration forming during the onset of the drying phase, when water levels were falling and fish began to converge into the sloughs. As water levels fell below the ridges, DCI declined over different directions, closing down dispersal lanes, and fish density spiked. Persistence of intermediate levels of connectivity on the intact RSL enabled persistent concentration events throughout the drying phase. The intact landscape also buffered effects of wet season population growth. Water level reversals on both landscapes negatively affected fish densities by depleting fish populations without allowing enough time for them to regenerate. Testable, spatiotemporal predictions of the timing, location, duration, and magnitude of fish concentration pulses were produced by the model, and can be applied to restoration planning.

The influence of self-reported leisure time physical activity and the body mass index on recovery from persistent back pain among men and women: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Bohman, Tony; Alfredsson, Lars; Hallqvist, Johan; Vingård, Eva; Skillgate, Eva

2013-04-25

There is limited knowledge about leisure time physical activity and the body mass index (BMI) as prognostic factors for recovery from persistent back pain. The aim of this study was to assess the influence of leisure time physical activity and BMI on recovery from persistent back pain among men and women in a general population. The study population (n=1836) in this longitudinal cohort study consisted of participants reporting persistent back pain in the baseline questionnaire in 2002-2003. Data on leisure time physical activity, BMI and potential confounders were also collected at baseline. Information on recovery from persistent back pain (no back pain periods ≥ 7 days during the last 5 years) was obtained from the follow-up questionnaire in 2007. Log-binomial models were applied to calculate Risk Ratios with 95 percent Confidence Intervals (CI) comparing physically active and normal weight groups versus sedentary and overweight groups. Compared to a sedentary leisure time, all measured levels of leisure time physical activity were associated with a greater chance of recovery from persistent back pain among women. The adjusted Risk Ratios was 1.46 (95% CI: 1.06, 2.01) for low leisure time physical activity, 1.51 (95% CI: 1.02, 2.23) for moderate leisure time physical activity, and 1.67 (95% CI: 1.08, 2.58) for high leisure time physical activity. There were no indications that leisure time physical activity influenced recovery among men, or that BMI was associated with recovery from persistent back pain either among men or among women. Regular leisure time physical activity seems to improve recovery from persistent back pain among women.

Evaluating the phase diagram of superconductors with asymmetric spin populations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mannarelli, Massimo; Nardulli, Giuseppe; Ruggieri, Marco

2006-09-15

The phase diagram of a nonrelativistic fermionic system with imbalanced state populations interacting via a short-range S-wave attractive interaction is analyzed in the mean-field approximation. We determine the energetically favored state for different values of the mismatch between the two Fermi spheres in the weak- and strong-coupling regimes considering both homogeneous and nonhomogeneous superconductive states. We find that the homogeneous superconductive phase persists for values of the population imbalance that increase with increasing coupling strength. In the strong-coupling regime and for large population differences the energetically stable homogeneous phase is characterized by one gapless mode. We also find that themore » inhomogeneous superconductive phase characterized by the condensate {delta}(x){approx}{delta} exp(iq{center_dot}x) is energetically favored in a range of values of the chemical-potential mismatch that shrinks to zero in the strong-coupling regime.« less

Skin Testing With Water Buffalo's Milk in Children With Cow's Milk Allergy.

PubMed

Sheehan, William J; Gardynski, Andrea; Phipatanakul, Wanda

2009-09-01

BACKGROUND: Cow's milk allergy is the most common food allergy in young children. In areas outside the United States, milk from other mammals has been studied as a possible and desirable alternative for children with cow's milk allergy. OBJECTIVES: We chose to further investigate water buffalo's milk as an alternative for cow's milk allergic children in the United States. METHODS: Children with cow's milk allergy were skin prick tested with water buffalo's milk. Additionally, subjects were followed clinically for 1 year after the test to determine how many of the subjects had persistent cow's milk allergy. RESULTS: In total, 30 children, age 8 months to 8 years, were skin prick tested to water buffalo's milk with 73% (22/30) having a positive test. All children with a negative water buffalo's milk skin test also had a negative cow's milk skin test. In follow-up, most (7 of 8) of the children with a negative skin prick test (SPT) to water buffalo's milk were found to have outgrown their cow's milk allergy. In comparison, all of the subjects with a positive skin test to water buffalo's milk had persistent cow's milk allergy. After adjusting for this, we determined that 96% (22/23) of the children with persistent cow's milk allergy were positive on skin testing to water buffalo's milk. CONCLUSIONS: In this population, the vast majority of children with persistent cow's milk allergy were positive on skin prick testing to water buffalo's milk. These results indicate that water buffalo's milk is unlikely to be a successful alternative for children with cow's milk allergy.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kostova, T; Carlsen, T

We present a study, based on simulations with SERDYCA, a spatially-explicit individual-based model of rodent dynamics, on the relation between population persistence and the presence of numerous isolated disturbances in the habitat. We are specifically interested in the effect of disturbances that do not fragment the environment on population persistence. Our results suggest that the presence of disturbances in the absence of fragmentation can actually increase the average time to extinction of the modeled population. The presence of disturbances decreases population density but can increase the chance for mating in monogamous species and consequently, the ratio of juveniles in themore » population. It thus provides a better chance for the population to restore itself after a severe period with critically low population density. We call this the ''disturbance-forced localization effect''.« less

Attachment defect in mouse fibroblasts (L cells) persistently infected with Chlamydia psittaci.

PubMed Central

Moulder, J W; Levy, N J; Zeichner, S L; Lee, C K

1981-01-01

Almost all the cells in populations of mouse fibroblasts (L cells) persistently infected with the 6BC strain of Chlamydia psittaci were immune to superinfection with high multiplicities of C. psittaci, whether or not the L cells contained visible chlamydial inclusions. As ascertained by experiments with 14C-labeled C. psittaci, immunity to superinfection resulted from the failure of added chlamydiae to attach to persistently infected host cells. However, when exogenous C. psittaci was introduced into persistently infected L cells by centrifuging the inoculum onto host cell monolayers or by pretreating the monolayers with diethylaminoethyl-dextran, these chlamydiae produced expected numbers of infectious progeny. Persistently infected L cells were associated in an unknown way with a C. psittaci population that entered the host cells only with the aid of centrifugation or pretreatment with diethylaminoethyl-dextran. Inclusion-free, persistently infected L cells appeared to present at least two separate hindrances to chlamydial activity: blockage of the attachment of exogenous elementary bodies to persistently infected host cells and prevention of the initiation of chlamydial multiplication by means of a normal developmental cycle in the absence of added C. psittaci. Images PMID:7298188

The effects of dispersal patterns on marine reserves: does the tail wag the dog?

PubMed

Lockwood, Dale R; Hastings, Alan; Botsford, Louis W

2002-05-01

The concept of marine reserves as a method of improving management of fisheries is gaining momentum. While the list of benefits from reserves is frequently promoted, precise formulations of theory to support reserve design are not fully developed. To determine the size of reserves and the distances between reserves an understanding of the requirements for persistence of local populations is required. Unfortunately, conditions for persistence are poorly characterized, as are the larval dispersal patterns on which persistence depends. With the current paucity of information regarding meroplanktonic larval transport processes, understanding the robustness of theoretical results to larval dispersal is of key importance. From this formulation a broad range of dispersal patterns are analyzed. Larval dispersal is represented by a probability distribution that defines the fraction of successful settlers from an arbitrary location, the origin of the distribution, to any other location along the coast. While the effects of specific dispersal patterns have been investigated for invasion processes, critical habitat size and persistence issues have generally been addressed with only one or two dispersal types. To that end, we formulate models based on integrodifference equations that are spatially continuous and temporally discrete. We consider a range of dispersal distributions from leptokurtic to platykurtic. The effect of different dispersal patterns is considered for a single isolated reserve of varying size receiving no external larvae, as well as multiple reserves with varying degrees of connectivity. While different patterns result in quantitative differences in persistence, qualitatively similar effects across all patterns are seen in both single- and multiple reserve models. Persistence in an isolated reserve requires a size that is approximately twice the mean dispersal distance and regardless of the dispersal pattern the population in a patch is not persistent if the reserve size is reduced to just the mean dispersal distance. With an idealized coastline structure consisting of an infinite line of equally spaced reserves separated by regions of coastline in which reproduction is nil, the relative settlement as a function of the fraction of coastline and size of reserve is qualitatively very similar over a broad range of dispersal patterns. The upper limit for the minimum fraction of coastline held in reserve is about 40%. As the fraction of coastline is reduced, the minimum size of reserve becomes no more than 1.25 times the mean dispersal distance.

Effects of fire on fish populations: Landscape perspectives on persistence of native fishes and nonnative fish invasions

Treesearch

Jason B. Dunham; Michael K. Young; Robert E. Gresswell; Bruce E. Rieman

2003-01-01

Our limited understanding of the short and long-term effects of fire on fish contributes to considerable uncertainty in assessments of the risks and benefits of fire management alternatives. A primary concern among the many potential effects of fire is the effects of fire and fire management on persistence of native fish populations. Limited evidence suggests...

Analysis on a diffusive SIS epidemic model with logistic source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bo; Li, Huicong; Tong, Yachun

2017-08-01

In this paper, we are concerned with an SIS epidemic reaction-diffusion model with logistic source in spatially heterogeneous environment. We first discuss some basic properties of the parabolic system, including the uniform upper bound of solutions and global stability of the endemic equilibrium when spatial environment is homogeneous. Our primary focus is to determine the asymptotic profile of endemic equilibria (when exist) if the diffusion (migration) rate of the susceptible or infected population is small or large. Combined with the results of Li et al. (J Differ Equ 262:885-913, 2017) where the case of linear source is studied, our analysis suggests that varying total population enhances persistence of infectious disease.

Extreme Glacial Legacies: A Synthesis of the Antarctic Springtail Phylogeographic Record

PubMed Central

McGaughran, Angela; Stevens, Mark I.; Hogg, Ian D.; Carapelli, Antonio

2011-01-01

We review current phylogeographic knowledge from across the Antarctic terrestrial landscape with a focus on springtail taxa. We describe consistent patterns of high genetic diversity and structure among populations which have persisted in glacial refugia across Antarctica over both short (<2 Mya) and long (>10 Mya) timescales. Despite a general concordance of results among species, we explain why location is important in determining population genetic patterns within bioregions. We complete our review by drawing attention to the main limitations in the field of Antarctic phylogeography, namely that the scope of geographic focus is often lacking within studies, and that large gaps remain in our phylogeographic knowledge for most terrestrial groups. PMID:26467614

Altered self-perception in adult survivors treated for a CNS tumor in childhood or adolescence: population-based outcomes compared with the general population

PubMed Central

Hörnquist, Lina; Rickardsson, Jenny; Lannering, Birgitta; Gustafsson, Göran; Boman, Krister K.

2015-01-01

Background Survivors of pediatric CNS tumors are at risk for persistent tumor/treatment-related morbidity, physical disability and social consequences that may alter self-perception, vital for self-identity, mental health and quality of survival. We studied the long-term impact of childhood CNS tumors and their treatment on the self-perception of adult survivors and compared outcomes with those of the general population. Methods The cohort included 697 Swedish survivors diagnosed with a primary CNS tumor during 1982–2001. Comparison data were randomly collected from a stratified general population sample. Survivors and general population individuals were compared as regards self-perception in 5 domains: body image, sports/physical activities, peers, work, and family, and with a global self-esteem index. Within the survivor group, determinants of impact on self-perception were identified. Results The final analyzed sample included 528 survivors, 75.8% of the entire national cohort. The control sample consisted of 995, 41% of 2500 addressed. Survivors had significantly poorer self-perception outcomes in domains of peers, work, body image, and sports/physical activities, and in the global self-perception measure, compared with those of the general population (all P < .001). Within the survivor group, female gender and persistent visible physical sequelae predicted poorer outcomes in several of the studied domains. Tumor type and a history of cranial radiation therapy were associated with outcomes. Conclusion An altered self-perception is a potential late effect in adult survivors of pediatric CNS tumors. Self-perception and self-esteem are significant elements of identity, mental health and quality of survival. Therefore, care and psychosocial follow-up of survivors should include measures for identifying disturbances and for assessing the need for psychosocial intervention. PMID:25332406

Mathematical analysis of epidemiological models with heterogeneity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Ark, J.W.

1992-01-01

For many diseases in human populations the disease shows dissimilar characteristics in separate subgroups of the population; for example, the probability of disease transmission for gonorrhea or AIDS is much higher from male to female than from female to male. There is reason to construct and analyze epidemiological models which allow this heterogeneity of population, and to use these models to run computer simulations of the disease to predict the incidence and prevalence of the disease. In the models considered here the heterogeneous population is separated into subpopulations whose internal and external interactions are homogeneous in the sense that eachmore » person in the population can be assumed to have all average actions for the people of that subpopulation. The first model considered is an SIRS models; i.e., the Susceptible can become Infected, and if so he eventually Recovers with temporary immunity, and after a period of time becomes Susceptible again. Special cases allow for permanent immunity or other variations. This model is analyzed and threshold conditions are given which determine whether the disease dies out or persists. A deterministic model is presented; this model is constructed using difference equations, and it has been used in computer simulations for the AIDS epidemic in the homosexual population in San Francisco. The homogeneous version and the heterogeneous version of the differential-equations and difference-equations versions of the deterministic model are analyzed mathematically. In the analysis, equilibria are identified and threshold conditions are set forth for the disease to die out if the disease is below the threshold so that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Above the threshold the disease persists so that the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and there is a unique endemic equilibrium.« less

Definition and preoperative predictors of persistently elevated prostate-specific antigen after radical prostatectomy: results from the Shared Equal Access Regional Cancer Hospital (SEARCH) database.

PubMed

Moreira, Daniel M; Presti, Joseph C; Aronson, William J; Terris, Martha K; Kane, Christopher J; Amling, Christopher L; Freedland, Stephen J

2010-06-01

To define a level of persistently elevated prostate-specific antigen (PSA) after radical prostatectomy (RP) that equates with high-risk for disease progression, and to identify preoperative predictors of PSA persistence among men from the Shared Equal Access Regional Cancer Hospital (SEARCH) database. A total of 901 men treated with RP between 2001 and 2008 were separated into groups based upon PSA nadir within 6 months after RP. We explored the association between nadir groups and time to biochemical recurrence (BCR) using multivariate Cox proportional hazards and determined the preoperative predictors of PSA persistence using logistic regression. Relative to men with undetectable PSA levels, those with a PSA nadir of 0.03 (hazard ratio [HR] 3.88, P < 0.001), 0.04 (HR 4.87, P < 0.001), 0.05-0.09 (HR 12.69, P < 0.001), 0.1-0.19 (HR 13.17, P < 0.001), and 0.2 ng/mL (HR 13.23, P < 0.001) were at increased risk of BCR while men with a nadir of 0.01 (HR 1.36, P = 0.400) and 0.02 (HR 1.64, P = 0.180) were not. Using the PSA persistence definition of a PSA nadir > or = 0.03 ng/mL, 230 men (26%) had persistence. The independent preoperative predictors of PSA persistence were higher body mass index (BMI, P = 0.002), pathological Gleason score (relative to 2-6: 4 + 3-10, P = 0.001) and preoperative PSA level (P < 0.001). Men with a PSA nadir > or = 0.03 ng/mL after RP were at higher risk for BCR. Using a PSA persistence definition of a PSA nadir > or = 0.03 ng/mL, persistence was predicted by known factors associated with aggressive disease (tumour grade, PSA level and BMI). Validation of the present definition in different populations using later end-points remains necessary to assess its prognostic usefulness.

Comparison of the size of persistent foramen ovale and atrial septal defects in divers with shunt-related decompression illness and in the general population.

PubMed

Wilmshurst, Peter T; Morrison, W Lindsay; Walsh, Kevin P

2015-06-01

Decompression illness (DCI) is associated with a right-to-left shunt, such as persistent foramen ovale (PFO), atrial septal defect (ASD) and pulmonary arteriovenous malformations. About one-quarter of the population have a PFO, but considerably less than one-quarter of divers suffer DCI. Our aim was to determine whether shunt-related DCI occurs mainly or entirely in divers with the largest diameter atrial defects. Case control comparison of diameters of atrial defects (PFO and ASD) in 200 consecutive divers who had transcatheter closure of an atrial defect following shunt-related DCI and in an historic group of 263 individuals in whom PFO diameter was measured at post-mortem examination. In the divers who had experienced DCI, the median atrial defect diameter was 10 mm and the mean (standard deviation) was 9.9 (3.6) mm. Among those in the general population who had a PFO, the median diameter was 5 mm and mean was 4.9 (2.6) mm. The difference between the two groups was highly significant (P < 0.0001). Of divers with shunt-related DCI, 101 (50.5%) had an atrial defect 10 mm diameter or larger, but only 1.3% of the general population studied had a PFO that was 10 mm diameter of larger. The risk of a diver suffering DCI is related to the size of the atrial defect rather than just the presence of a defect.

Using Bayesian Population Viability Analysis to Define Relevant Conservation Objectives.

PubMed

Green, Adam W; Bailey, Larissa L

2015-01-01

Adaptive management provides a useful framework for managing natural resources in the face of uncertainty. An important component of adaptive management is identifying clear, measurable conservation objectives that reflect the desired outcomes of stakeholders. A common objective is to have a sustainable population, or metapopulation, but it can be difficult to quantify a threshold above which such a population is likely to persist. We performed a Bayesian metapopulation viability analysis (BMPVA) using a dynamic occupancy model to quantify the characteristics of two wood frog (Lithobates sylvatica) metapopulations resulting in sustainable populations, and we demonstrate how the results could be used to define meaningful objectives that serve as the basis of adaptive management. We explored scenarios involving metapopulations with different numbers of patches (pools) using estimates of breeding occurrence and successful metamorphosis from two study areas to estimate the probability of quasi-extinction and calculate the proportion of vernal pools producing metamorphs. Our results suggest that ≥50 pools are required to ensure long-term persistence with approximately 16% of pools producing metamorphs in stable metapopulations. We demonstrate one way to incorporate the BMPVA results into a utility function that balances the trade-offs between ecological and financial objectives, which can be used in an adaptive management framework to make optimal, transparent decisions. Our approach provides a framework for using a standard method (i.e., PVA) and available information to inform a formal decision process to determine optimal and timely management policies.

Inertia: the discrepancy between individual and common good in dispersal and prospecting behaviour.

PubMed

Delgado, María del Mar; Ratikainen, Irja I; Kokko, Hanna

2011-08-01

The group selection debate of the 1960s made it clear that evolution does not necessarily increase population performance. Individuals can be selected to have traits that diminish a common good and make population persistence difficult. At the extreme, the discrepancy between levels of selection is predicted to make traits evolve towards values at which a population can no longer persist (evolutionary suicide). Dispersal and prospecting are prime examples of traits that have a strong influence on population persistence under environmental and demographic stochasticity. Theory predicts that an 'optimal' dispersal strategy from a population point of view can differ considerably from that produced by individual-level selection. Because dispersal is frequently risky or otherwise costly, individuals are often predicted to disperse less than would be ideal for population performance (persistence or size). We define this discrepancy as 'inertia' and examine current knowledge of its occurrence and effects on population dynamics in nature. We argue that inertia is potentially widespread but that a framework is currently lacking for predicting precisely the extent to which it has a real influence on population persistence. The opposite of inertia, 'hypermobility' (more dispersal by individuals than would maximize population performance) remains a possibility: it is known that highest dispersal rates do not lead to best expected population performance, and examples of such high dispersal evolving exist at least in the theoretical literature. We also show, by considering prospecting behaviour, that similar issues arise in species with advanced cognitive and learning abilities. Individual prospecting strategies and the information acquired during dispersal are known to influence the decisions and therefore the fate of individuals and, as a corollary, populations. Again, the willingness of individuals to sample environments might evolve to levels that are not optimal for populations. This conflict can take intriguing forms. For example, better cognitive abilities of individuals may not always lead to better population-level performance. Simulation studies have found that 'blind' dispersal can lead to better connected metapopulations than cognitively more advanced habitat choice rules: the latter can lead to too many individuals sticking to nearby safe habitat. The study of the mismatch between individual and population fitness should not be a mere intellectual exercise. Population managers typically need to take a population-level view of performance, which may necessitate human intervention if it differs from what is selected for. We conclude that our knowledge of inertia and hypermobility would advance faster if theoretical studies--without much additional effort--quantified the population consequences of the evolving traits and compared this with hypothetical (not selectively favoured) dispersal rules, and if empirical studies were similarly conducted with the differing levels of selection in mind. © 2010 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2010 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Heteroresistance to Fluconazole Is a Continuously Distributed Phenotype among Candida glabrata Clinical Strains Associated with In Vivo Persistence.

PubMed

Ben-Ami, Ronen; Zimmerman, Offer; Finn, Talya; Amit, Sharon; Novikov, Anna; Wertheimer, Noa; Lurie-Weinberger, Mor; Berman, Judith

2016-08-02

Candida glabrata causes persistent infections in patients treated with fluconazole and often acquires resistance following exposure to the drug. Here we found that clinical strains of C. glabrata exhibit cell-to-cell variation in drug response (heteroresistance). We used population analysis profiling (PAP) to assess fluconazole heteroresistance (FLC(HR)) and to ask if it is a binary trait or a continuous phenotype. Thirty (57.6%) of 52 fluconazole-sensitive clinical C. glabrata isolates met accepted dichotomous criteria for FLC(HR) However, quantitative grading of FLC(HR) by using the area under the PAP curve (AUC) revealed a continuous distribution across a wide range of values, suggesting that all isolates exhibit some degree of heteroresistance. The AUC correlated with rhodamine 6G efflux and was associated with upregulation of the CDR1 and PDH1 genes, encoding ATP-binding cassette (ABC) transmembrane transporters, implying that HetR populations exhibit higher levels of drug efflux. Highly FLC(HR) C. glabrata was recovered more frequently than nonheteroresistant C. glabrata from hematogenously infected immunocompetent mice following treatment with high-dose fluconazole (45.8% versus 15%, P = 0.029). Phylogenetic analysis revealed some phenotypic clustering but also variations in FLC(HR) within clonal groups, suggesting both genetic and epigenetic determinants of heteroresistance. Collectively, these results establish heteroresistance to fluconazole as a graded phenotype associated with ABC transporter upregulation and fluconazole efflux. Heteroresistance may explain the propensity of C. glabrata for persistent infection and the emergence of breakthrough resistance to fluconazole. Heteroresistance refers to variability in the response to a drug within a clonal cell population. This phenomenon may have crucial importance for the way we look at antimicrobial resistance, as heteroresistant strains are not detected by standard laboratory susceptibility testing and may be associated with failure of antimicrobial therapy. We describe for the first time heteroresistance to fluconazole in C. glabrata, a finding that may explain the propensity of this pathogen to acquire resistance following exposure to fluconazole and to persist despite treatment. We found that, rather than being a binary all-or-none trait, heteroresistance was a continuously distributed phenotype associated with increased expression of genes that encode energy-dependent drug efflux transporters. Moreover, we show that heteroresistance is associated with failure of fluconazole to clear infection with C. glabrata Together, these findings provide an empirical framework for determining and quantifying heteroresistance in C. glabrata. Copyright © 2016 Ben-Ami et al.

Modeling seasonal measles transmission in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Zhenguo; Liu, Dan

2015-08-01

A discrete-time deterministic measles model with periodic transmission rate is formulated and studied. The basic reproduction number R0 is defined and used as the threshold parameter in determining the dynamics of the model. It is shown that the disease will die out if R0 < 1 , and the disease will persist in the population if R0 > 1 . Parameters in the model are estimated on the basis of demographic and epidemiological data. Numerical simulations are presented to describe the seasonal fluctuation of measles infection in China.

Relationship between seed bank expression, adult longevity and aridity in species of Chaetanthera (Asteraceae) in central Chile.

PubMed

Arroyo, M T K; Chacon, P; Cavieres, L A

2006-09-01

Broad surveys have detected inverse relationships between seed and adult longevity and between seed size and adult longevity. However, low and unpredictable precipitation is also associated with seed bank (SB) expression in semi-arid and arid areas. The relationship between adult longevity, SB formation, seed mass and aridity is examined in annual and perennial herbs of Chaetanthera (Asteraceae) from the Chilean Mediterranean-type climate and winter-rainfall desert areas over a precipitation range of one order of magnitude. Seeds of 18 species and subtaxa (32 populations) were buried in field locations, and exhumed after two successive germination periods. Seeds not germinating in the field were tested in a growth chamber, and remnant intact seed tested for viability. Seed banks were classed as transient or persistent. The effect of life form, species, population and burial time on persistent SB size was assessed with factorial ANOVA. Persistent seed bank size was compared with the Martonne aridity index (shown to be a surrogate for inter-annual variation in precipitation) and seed size using linear regression. ANCOVA assessed the effect of life-form on SB size with aridity as covariate. Three species had a transient SB and 15 a persistent SB. ANOVA revealed a significant effect of life-form on SB size with annuals having larger SB size and greater capacity to form a persistent SB than perennials. Significant inter-population variation in SB size was found in 64% of cases. Seed mass was negatively correlated with persistent SB size. Persistent seed bank size was significantly correlated with the Martonne aridity index in the perennial and annual species, with species from more arid areas having larger persistent SBs. However, when aridity was considered as a covariate, ANCOVA revealed no significant differences between the annual and perennial herbs. Persistent seed bank size in Chaetanthera appears to reflect environmental selection rather than any trade-off with adult longevity.

Mortality, Disenrollment, and Spending Persistence in Medicaid and CHIP.

PubMed

DeLia, Derek

2017-03-01

Research on spending persistence has not focused on Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program (Medicaid/CHIP), which includes a complex and growing population. The objective of the study was to describe patterns of expenditure persistence, mortality, and disenrollment among nondually eligible Medicaid/CHIP enrollees and identify factors predicting these outcomes. The study is based on New Jersey Medicaid/CHIP claims data from 2011 to 2014. Descriptive and multinomial regression methods were used to characterize persistently extreme spenders, defined as those appearing in the top 1% of statewide spending every year, according to demographics, Medicaid/CHIP eligibility, nursing facility residence, patient risk scores, and clinical diagnostic categories measured in 2011. Similar analyses were done for persistently high spenders (ie, always in the top 10% but not always top 1%) as well as decedents, disenrollees, and moderate spenders (ie, at least 1 year outside of the top 10%). Nondually eligible NJ Medicaid/CHIP enrollees in 2011. One fourth of extreme spenders in 2011 remained in that category throughout 2011-2014. Almost all (89.3%) of the persistently extreme spenders were aged, blind, or disabled. Within the aged, blind, or disabled population, the strongest predictors of persistently extreme spending were diagnoses involving developmental disability, HIV/AIDS, central nervous system conditions, psychiatric disorders, type 1 diabetes, and renal conditions. Individuals in nursing facilities and those with very high risk scores were more likely to die or have persistently high spending than to have persistently extreme spending. The study highlights unique features of spending persistence within Medicaid/CHIP and provides methodological contributions to the broader persistence literature.

Long-term Persistence of Zoster Vaccine Efficacy

PubMed Central

Morrison, Vicki A.; Johnson, Gary R.; Schmader, Kenneth E.; Levin, Myron J.; Zhang, Jane H.; Looney, David J.; Betts, Robert; Gelb, Larry; Guatelli, John C.; Harbecke, Ruth; Pachucki, Connie; Keay, Susan; Menzies, Barbara; Griffin, Marie R.; Kauffman, Carol A.; Marques, Adriana; Toney, John; Boardman, Kathy; Su, Shu-Chih; Li, Xiaoming; Chan, Ivan S. F.; Parrino, Janie; Annunziato, Paula; Oxman, Michael N.; Davis, LE.; Kauffman, CA; Keay, SK; Straus, SE; Marques, AR; Soto, NE; Brunell, P; Gnann, JW; Serrao, R; Cotton, DJ; Goodman, RP; Arbeit, RD; Pachucki, CT; Levin, MJ; Schmader, KE; Keitel, WA; Greenberg, RN; Morrison, VA; Wright, PF; Griffin, MR; Simberkoff, MS; Yeh, SS; Lobo, Z; Holodniy, M; Loutit, J; Betts, RF; Gelb, LD; Crawford, GE; Guatelli, J; Brooks, PA; Looney, DJ; Neuzil, KM; Toney, JF; Kauffman, CA; Keay, SK; Marques, AR; Pachucki, CT; Levin, MJ; Schmader, KE; Morrison, VA; Wright, PF; Griffin, MR; Betts, RF; Gelb, LD; Guatelli, JC; Looney, DJ; Neuzil, KM; Menzies, B; Toney, JF

2015-01-01

Background. The Shingles Prevention Study (SPS) demonstrated zoster vaccine efficacy through 4 years postvaccination. A Short-Term Persistence Substudy (STPS) demonstrated persistence of vaccine efficacy for at least 5 years. A Long-Term Persistence Substudy (LTPS) was undertaken to further assess vaccine efficacy in SPS vaccine recipients followed for up to 11 years postvaccination. Study outcomes were assessed for the entire LTPS period and for each year from 7 to 11 years postvaccination. Methods. Surveillance, case determination, and follow-up were comparable to those in SPS and STPS. Because SPS placebo recipients were offered zoster vaccine before the LTPS began, there were no unvaccinated controls. Instead, SPS and STPS placebo results were used to model reference placebo groups. Results. The LTPS enrolled 6867 SPS vaccine recipients. Compared to SPS, estimated vaccine efficacy in LTPS decreased from 61.1% to 37.3% for the herpes zoster (HZ) burden of illness (BOI), from 66.5% to 35.4% for incidence of postherpetic neuralgia, and from 51.3% to 21.1% for incidence of HZ, and declined for all 3 outcome measures from 7 through 11 years postvaccination. Vaccine efficacy for the HZ BOI was significantly greater than zero through year 10 postvaccination, whereas vaccine efficacy for incidence of HZ was significantly greater than zero only through year 8. Conclusions. Estimates of vaccine efficacy decreased over time in the LTPS population compared with modeled control estimates. Statistically significant vaccine efficacy for HZ BOI persisted into year 10 postvaccination, whereas statistically significant vaccine efficacy for incidence of HZ persisted only through year 8. PMID:25416754

Population specific fitness response of Drosophila subobscura to lead pollution.

PubMed

Kenig, Bojan; Stamenković-Radak, Marina; Andelković, Marko

2013-04-01

Differences in heavy metal tolerance among separate populations of the same species have often been interpreted as local adaptation. Persistence of differences after removing the stressor indicates that mechanisms responsible for the increased tolerance were genetically determined. Drosophila subobscura Collin (Diptera: Drosophilidae) populations were sampled from two localities with different history of heavy metal pollution, and reared for eight generations in the laboratory on a standard medium and on media with different concentrations of lead (Pb). To determine whether flies from different natural populations exposed to the Pb-contaminated media in the laboratory show population specific variability in fitness components over generations, experimental groups with different concentrations of lead were assayed in three generations (F2 , F5 , and F8 ) for fecundity, developmental time, and egg-to-adult viability. On the contaminated medium, fecundity was reduced in later generations and viability was increased, irrespective of the environmental origin of populations. For both populations, developmental time showed a tendency of slowing down on media with lead. Faster development was observed in later generations. Preadaptation to contamination, meaning higher fecundity, higher viability, and faster egg to adult development in all studied generations, was found in D. subobscura originating from the locality with a higher level of heavy metal pollution. © 2012 The Authors Insect Science © 2012 Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Spreading of persistent infections in heterogeneous populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanz, J.; Floría, L. M.; Moreno, Y.

2010-05-01

Up to now, the effects of having heterogeneous networks of contacts have been studied mostly for diseases which are not persistent in time, i.e., for diseases where the infectious period can be considered very small compared to the lifetime of an individual. Moreover, all these previous results have been obtained for closed populations, where the number of individuals does not change during the whole duration of the epidemics. Here, we go one step further and analyze, both analytically and numerically, a radically different kind of diseases: those that are persistent and can last for an individual’s lifetime. To be more specific, we particularize to the case of tuberculosis’ (TB) infection dynamics, where the infection remains latent for a period of time before showing up and spreading to other individuals. We introduce an epidemiological model for TB-like persistent infections taking into account the heterogeneity inherent to the population structure. This sort of dynamics introduces new analytical and numerical challenges that we are able to sort out. Our results show that also for persistent diseases the epidemic threshold depends on the ratio of the first two moments of the degree distribution so that it goes to zero in a class of scale-free networks when the system approaches the thermodynamic limit.

Antibiotic regimen based on population analysis of residing persister cells eradicates Staphylococcus epidermidis biofilms

PubMed Central

Yang, Shoufeng; Hay, Iain D.; Cameron, David R.; Speir, Mary; Cui, Bintao; Su, Feifei; Peleg, Anton Y.; Lithgow, Trevor; Deighton, Margaret A.; Qu, Yue

2015-01-01

Biofilm formation is a major pathogenicity strategy of Staphylococcus epidermidis causing various medical-device infections. Persister cells have been implicated in treatment failure of such infections. We sought to profile bacterial subpopulations residing in S. epidermidis biofilms, and to establish persister-targeting treatment strategies to eradicate biofilms. Population analysis was performed by challenging single biofilm cells with antibiotics at increasing concentrations ranging from planktonic minimum bactericidal concentrations (MBCs) to biofilm MBCs (MBCbiofilm). Two populations of “persister cells” were observed: bacteria that survived antibiotics at MBCbiofilm for 24/48 hours were referred to as dormant cells; those selected with antibiotics at 8 X MICs for 3 hours (excluding dormant cells) were defined as tolerant-but-killable (TBK) cells. Antibiotic regimens targeting dormant cells were tested in vitro for their efficacies in eradicating persister cells and intact biofilms. This study confirmed that there are at least three subpopulations within a S. epidermidis biofilm: normal cells, dormant cells, and TBK cells. Biofilms comprise more TBK cells and dormant cells than their log-planktonic counterparts. Using antibiotic regimens targeting dormant cells, i.e. effective antibiotics at MBCbiofilm for an extended period, might eradicate S. epidermidis biofilms. Potential uses for this strategy are in antibiotic lock techniques and inhaled aerosolized antibiotics. PMID:26687035

Population health and status of epidemiology in Western European, Balkan and Baltic countries.

PubMed

Seniori Costantini, Adele; Gallo, Federica; Pega, Frank; Saracci, Rodolfo; Veerus, Piret; West, Robert

2015-02-01

This article is part of a series commissioned by the International Epidemiological Association, aimed at describing population health and epidemiological resources in the six World Health Organization (WHO) regions. It covers 32 of the 53 WHO European countries, namely the Western European countries, the Balkan countries and the Baltic countries. The burdens of mortality and morbidity and the patterns of risk factors and inequalities have been reviewed in order to identify health priorities and challenges. Literature and internet searches were conducted to stock-take epidemiological teaching, research activities, funding and scientific productivity. These countries have among the highest life expectancies worldwide. However, within- and between-country inequalities persist, which are largely due to inequalities in distribution of main health determinants. There is a long tradition of epidemiological research and teaching in most countries, in particular in the Western European countries. Cross-national networks and collaborations are increasing through the support of the European Union which fosters procedures to standardize educational systems across Europe and provides funding for epidemiological research through framework programmes. The number of Medline-indexed epidemiological research publications per year led by Western European countries has been increasing. The countries accounts for nearly a third of the global epidemiological publication. Although population health has improved considerably overall, persistent within- and between-country inequalities continue to challenge national and European health institutions. More research, policy and action on the social determinants of health are required in the region. Epidemiological training, research and workforce in the Baltic and Balkan countries should be strengthened. European epidemiologists can play pivotal roles and must influence legislation concerning production and access to high-quality data. © The Author 2015; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Evaluation of economic effects and the health and performance of the general cattle population after exposure to cattle persistently infected with bovine viral diarrhea virus in a starter feedlot.

PubMed

Hessman, Bill E; Fulton, Robert W; Sjeklocha, David B; Murphy, Timothy A; Ridpath, Julia F; Payton, Mark E

2009-01-01

To evaluate economic effects and health and performance of the general cattle population after exposure to cattle persistently infected (PI) with bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in a feedlot. 21,743 high-risk calves from the southeastern United States. PI status was determined by use of an antigen-capture ELISA (ACE) and confirmed by use of a second ACE, reverse transcriptase-PCR assay of sera, immunohistochemical analysis, and virus isolation from sera. Groups with various amounts of exposure to BVDV PI cattle were used. After being placed in the feedlot, identified PI cattle were removed from 1 section, but PI cattle remained in another section of the feedlot. Exposure groups for cattle lots arriving without PI animals were determined by spatial association to cattle lots, with PI animals remaining or removed from the lot. 15,348 cattle maintained their exposure group. Performance outcomes improved slightly among the 5 exposure groups as the risk for exposure to BVDV PI cattle decreased. Health outcomes had an association with exposure risk that depended on the exposure group. Comparing cattle lots with direct exposure with those without direct exposure revealed significant improvements in all performance outcomes and in first relapse percentage and mortality percentage in the health outcomes. Economic analysis revealed that fatalities accounted for losses of $5.26/animal and performance losses were $88.26/animal. This study provided evidence that exposure of the general population of feedlot cattle to BVDV PI animals resulted in substantial costs attributable to negative effects on performance and increased fatalities.

Effects of DDT on the oribatid mite community (Acarina:oribatei) of an old-field herbaceous community

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Folts, D.D.

1972-11-01

Oribatid mites make up approximately 40 to 50% of the total microarthropods in the litter and soil. They are saprophagous, primary consumers in the litter and soil, and as a group could be considered to be on one trophic level. It has been suggested that oribatid mites could affect soil structure and formation by aiding in humification and mineralization, by enhancing the formation of soil structure, and by increasing the depth of the humus (02) horizon. Nutrient cycling and the breakdown of organic matter is believed to be an important function of oribatids. The mites influence nutrient cycling indirectly throughmore » the control of fungal and bacterial populations. It is possible that pesticides affect nutrient cycling as an indirect result of changes in oribatid populations. The pesticide DDT, although it has been banned throughout the entire country, is still produced for foreign markets and is in widespread use in many developing countries. The persistance of DDT in soil has been verified by a number of workers. This persistance is of potential danger to the balance of soil microarthropod populations long after the initial effect of the pesticide has disappeared. The objectives of this study were: (1) to determine quantitative changes in numbers of individuals of oribatids as a whole and changes in numbers of individualson the specific level; (2) to determine changes in the structure of the oribatid community that occurred as a result of DDT treatment; and (3) to compare the effect of the DDT on the oribatids of the upper three cm of soil with the oribatids from the fourth cm of soil.« less

Distribution and status of five non-native fish species in the Tampa Bay drainage (USA), a hot spot for fish introductions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lawson, Katelyn M.; Tuckett, Quenton M.; Ritch, Jared L.; Nico, Leo; Fuller, Pam; Matheson, Richard E.; Hill, Jeffrey E.

2017-01-01

The Tampa Bay region of Florida (USA) is a hot spot for non-native freshwater fishes. However, published information on most non-native fishes in the basin is not current. Systematic sampling efforts targeting non-native fishes in the region were conducted from 2013–2015 by the University of Florida Tropical Aquaculture Laboratory. Data from these recent surveys were analyzed, along with historic and new data from published and unpublished sources, to assess current fish distributions and determine status. We focus on five of the non-native species sampled: pike killifish Belonesox belizanus Kner, 1860, green swordtail Xiphophorus hellerii Heckel, 1848, southern platyfish Xiphophorus maculatus (Günther, 1866), Mayan cichlid Mayaheros urophthalmus (Günther, 1862), and Jack Dempsey Rocio octofasciata (Regan, 1903). All five were found to have reproducing populations in the basin, each showing broader distributions than previously indicated. Non-native populations of four of the species have persisted in the Tampa Bay region since at least the 1990s. In contrast, the presence of Mayan cichlid in the basin was not confirmed until 2004. Based on numbers, distributions, and years of persistence, these five species all maintain established populations. Pike killifish and Mayan cichlid are established and spreading throughout multiple habitat types, while green swordtail, southern platyfish, and Jack Dempsey are localized and found primarily in more marginal habitats (e.g., small ditches and first order tributary streams). Factors affecting continued existence and distributions likely include aquaculture, biotic resistance, and thermal and salinity tolerances. We also clarify non-native species status determination using a multi-agency collaborative approach, and reconcile differences in terminology usage and interpretation.

Associations between former exposure to manganese and olfaction in an elderly population: Results from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study.

PubMed

Casjens, Swaantje; Pesch, Beate; Robens, Sibylle; Kendzia, Benjamin; Behrens, Thomas; Weiss, Tobias; Ulrich, Nadin; Arendt, Marina; Eisele, Lewin; Pundt, Noreen; Marr, Anja; van Thriel, Christoph; Van Gelder, Rainer; Aschner, Michael; Moebus, Susanne; Dragano, Nico; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Brüning, Thomas

2017-01-01

Occupational exposure to manganese (Mn) has been associated with impairments in olfaction and motor functions, but it has yet to be determined if such effects persist upon cessation of exposure. The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of former occupational Mn exposure on olfaction within the framework of a prospective cohort study among an elderly German population. Information on job tasks with recognized Mn exposure and data on odor identification assessed with Sniffin' sticks was collected during the second follow-up of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study. The study population consisted of 1385 men aged 55-86 years, 354 of whom ever worked in jobs with potential Mn exposure (median 58.3μg/m 3  years, interquartile range 19.0-185μg/m 3  years). Multiple exposure measures, including job tasks, cumulative Mn exposure, and Mn determined in blood samples (MnB) archived at baseline, were used to estimate effects of Mn on olfaction. Having ever worked as welder was associated with better olfaction compared to other blue-collar workers without Mn exposure. Blue-collar workers identified less odors in comparison to white-collar workers. Concentrations of previous Mn exposure >185μg/m 3  years or MnB ≥15μg/L were not associated with impaired olfaction. In addition to a strong age effect, participants with lower occupational qualification identified less odors. We found no relevant association of former Mn exposure at relatively low levels with impaired olfaction. Possible neurotoxic Mn effects may not be persistent after cessation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Disparities in breast cancer treatment and outcomes: biological, social, and health system determinants and opportunities for research.

PubMed

Wheeler, Stephanie B; Reeder-Hayes, Katherine E; Carey, Lisa A

2013-01-01

Racial disparities in breast cancer mortality have been widely documented for several decades and persist despite advances in receipt of mammography across racial groups. This persistence leads to questions about the roles of biological, social, and health system determinants of poor outcomes. Cancer outcomes are a function not only of innate biological factors but also of modifiable characteristics of individual behavior and decision making as well as characteristics of patient-health system interaction and the health system itself. Attempts to explain persistent racial disparities have mostly been limited to discussion of differences in insurance coverage, socioeconomic status, tumor stage at diagnosis, comorbidity, and molecular subtype of the tumor. This article summarizes existing literature exploring reasons for racial disparities in breast cancer mortality, with an emphasis on treatment disparities and opportunities for future research. Because breast cancer care requires a high degree of multidisciplinary team collaboration, ensuring that guideline recommended treatment (such as endocrine therapy for hormone receptor positive patients) is received by all racial/ethnic groups is critical and requires coordination across multiple providers and health care settings. Recognition that variation in cancer care quality may be correlated with race (and socioeconomic and health system factors) may assist policy makers in identifying strategies to more equally distribute clinical expertise and health infrastructure across multiple user populations.

Threshold Dynamics of a Temperature-Dependent Stage-Structured Mosquito Population Model with Nested Delays.

PubMed

Wang, Xiunan; Zou, Xingfu

2018-05-21

Mosquito-borne diseases remain a significant threat to public health and economics. Since mosquitoes are quite sensitive to temperature, global warming may not only worsen the disease transmission case in current endemic areas but also facilitate mosquito population together with pathogens to establish in new regions. Therefore, understanding mosquito population dynamics under the impact of temperature is considerably important for making disease control policies. In this paper, we develop a stage-structured mosquito population model in the environment of a temperature-controlled experiment. The model turns out to be a system of periodic delay differential equations with periodic delays. We show that the basic reproduction number is a threshold parameter which determines whether the mosquito population goes to extinction or remains persistent. We then estimate the parameter values for Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that transmits dengue virus. We verify the analytic result by numerical simulations with the temperature data of Colombo, Sri Lanka where a dengue outbreak occurred in 2017.

Fatal disease and demographic Allee effect: population persistence and extinction.

PubMed

Friedman, Avner; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

2012-01-01

If a healthy stable host population at the disease-free equilibrium is subject to the Allee effect, can a small number of infected individuals with a fatal disease cause the host population to go extinct? That is, does the Allee effect matter at high densities? To answer this question, we use a susceptible-infected epidemic model to obtain model parameters that lead to host population persistence (with or without infected individuals) and to host extinction. We prove that the presence of an Allee effect in host demographics matters even at large population densities. We show that a small perturbation to the disease-free equilibrium can eventually lead to host population extinction. In addition, we prove that additional deaths due to a fatal infectious disease effectively increase the Allee threshold of the host population demographics.

Determining the drivers of population structure in a highly urbanized landscape to inform conservation planning.

PubMed

Thomassen, Henri A; Harrigan, Ryan J; Semple Delaney, Kathleen; Riley, Seth P D; Serieys, Laurel E K; Pease, Katherine; Wayne, Robert K; Smith, Thomas B

2018-02-01

Understanding the environmental contributors to population structure is of paramount importance for conservation in urbanized environments. We used spatially explicit models to determine genetic population structure under current and future environmental conditions across a highly fragmented, human-dominated environment in Southern California to assess the effects of natural ecological variation and urbanization. We focused on 7 common species with diverse habitat requirements, home-range sizes, and dispersal abilities. We quantified the relative roles of potential barriers, including natural environmental characteristics and an anthropogenic barrier created by a major highway, in shaping genetic variation. The ability to predict genetic variation in our models differed among species: 11-81% of intraspecific genetic variation was explained by environmental variables. Although an anthropogenically induced barrier (a major highway) severely restricted gene flow and movement at broad scales for some species, genetic variation seemed to be primarily driven by natural environmental heterogeneity at a local level. Our results show how assessing environmentally associated variation for multiple species under current and future climate conditions can help identify priority regions for maximizing population persistence under environmental change in urbanized regions. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Increasing Adult Learner Persistence and Completion Rates: A Guide for Student Affairs Leaders and Practitioners

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Culp, Marguerite McGann, Ed.; Dungy, Gwendolyn Jordan, Ed.

2014-01-01

More than a third of all undergraduate students are 25 or older, and their presence on college and university campuses is growing. However, institutions of higher learning are struggling to meet the needs of, and improve persistence and completion rates for, this significant student population. "Increasing Adult Learner Persistence and…

Persistence of Undergraduate Students at Arizona State University: A Research Report on the Class Entering in Fall, 1976.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Richardson, Richard C., Jr.; Attinasi, Louis C., Jr.

The academic persistence of undergraduate students at Arizona State University was studied. Demographic and academic profiles were developed, and persistence rates were calculated for the overall population of 3,166 freshmen, and by gender and ethnicity. Additional demographic variables were residency status and age. The academic variables…

[Health, human development, and governance in Latin America and the Caribbean at the beginning of the 21st century].

PubMed

Casas-Zamora, Juan Antonio

2002-01-01

The issue of the reciprocal relationship between health and development has recently taken on greater importance in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), given the persistence of extreme poverty and the political and social difficulties due to macroeconomic imbalances and crises of governance. This piece reviews concepts of sustainable human development, social determinants of health in general and of health inequities in particular (gender, ethnic group, income level), and the relationship between health and economic growth in the medium term and the long term. An analysis is made of how persistent poverty in countries of LAC relates to disparities in health conditions, access to health services, and health care financing, as well as to such health determinants as nutrition and environmental sanitation. Health inequities most strongly affect the most excluded and vulnerable sectors of the population. In the face of this situation, the author stresses that putting a priority on health inequities is vital to safeguarding the governability and the social and political stability of countries in LAC in the next decade.

Oral and anal sex are key to sustaining gonorrhoea at endemic levels in MSM populations: a mathematical model.

PubMed

Hui, B; Fairley, C K; Chen, M; Grulich, A; Hocking, J; Prestage, G; Walker, S; Law, M; Regan, D

2015-08-01

Despite early treatment of urethral infection, gonorrhoea is endemic in urban populations of men who have sex with men (MSM) in Australia. By contrast, gonorrhoea is not common in urban heterosexual populations. Sexual activities among MSM usually involve anal or oral sex, and as these behaviours are becoming increasingly common among heterosexuals, there is a need to investigate their roles in transmission of gonorrhoea. We developed individual-based models of transmission of gonorrhoea in MSM and heterosexuals that incorporate anatomical site-specific transmission of gonorrhoea. We estimated the probabilities of transmission for anal sex and oral sex by calibrating an MSM model against prevalence of gonorrhoea and sexual activity data. These probabilities were then applied to a heterosexual model in order to examine whether gonorrhoea can persist in a heterosexual population through the addition of anal sex and oral sex. In the MSM model, gonorrhoea can persist despite prompt treatment of urethral infections. The probability of gonorrhoea persisting is reduced if use of condom for oral sex is increased to more than 15% of acts. Assuming that treatment of symptomatic infections is prompt, gonorrhoea is unlikely to persist in a heterosexual population even with the addition of anal and oral sex. Our models suggest that oral sex has an important role in sustaining gonorrhoea in a population of MSM by providing a pool of untreated asymptomatic infection. The importance of anal sex or oral sex in sustaining gonorrhoea in a heterosexual population remains uncertain due to the lack of information linking different types of sex acts and transmissibility. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Tidal saltmarsh fragmentation and persistence of San Pablo Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia samuelis): Assessing benefits of wetland restoration in San Francisco Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Takekawa, John Y.; Sacks, B.N.; Woo, I.; Johnson, M.L.; Wylie, G.D.; ,

2006-01-01

The San Pablo Song Sparrow (Melospiza melodia samuelis) is one of three morphologically distinct Song Sparrow subspecies in tidal marshes of the San Francisco Bay estuary. These subspecies are rare, because as the human population has grown, diking and development have resulted in loss of 79% of the historic tidal marshes. Hundreds of projects have been proposed in the past decade to restore tidal marshes and benefit endemic populations. To evaluate the value of these restoration projects for Song Sparrows, we developed a population viability analysis (PVA) model to examine persistence of samuelis subspecies in relation to parcel size, connectivity, and catastrophe in San Pablo Bay. A total of 101 wetland parcels were identified from coverages of modern and historic tidal marshes. Parcels were grouped into eight fragments in the historical landscape and 10 in the present landscape. Fragments were defined as a group of parcels separated by >1 km, a distance that precluded regular interchange. Simulations indicated that the historic (circa 1850) samuelis population was three times larger than the modern population. However, only very high levels (>70% mortality) of catastrophe would threaten their persistence. Persistence of populations was sensitive to parcel size at a carrying capacity of <10 pairs, but connectivity of parcels was found to have little importance because habitats were dominated by a few large parcels. Our analysis indicates little risk of extinction of the samuelis subspecies with the current extent of tidal marshes, but the vulnerability of the small-est parcels suggests that restoration should create larger continuous tracts. Thus, PVA models may be useful tools for balancing the costs and benefits of restoring habitats for threatened tidal-marsh populations in wetland restoration planning.

Changes in Smoking Rates Among Pregnant Women and the General Female Population in Australia, Finland, Norway, and Sweden

PubMed Central

Callinan, Sarah

2017-01-01

Abstract Introduction: Smoking rates have dropped substantially in most developed countries in recent decades. This general trend has, however, not always been evident among women—particularly younger women. Smoking habits do, however, often change in connection with pregnancy and the aim of this study is to determine whether smoking during pregnancy follows general trends in smoking rates in the general female population in four countries with active anti-tobacco policies and decreasing population smoking rates. Methods: Changes in rates of persistent smoking, that is, smoking in late pregnancy or daily smoking among all women of childbearing age were described according to age groups. Data were retrieved from the Australian Household Drug Surveys during 2000–2013 and from registries and surveys in Finland, Norway, and Sweden between 1995 and 2014. Results: In general, persistent smoking has decreased and late-pregnancy smoking rates are lower than daily smoking rates among all women. However, younger women are more likely to be persistent smokers regardless of pregnancy status. In Norway and Finland, persistent smoking was most common among young pregnant women and in Sweden there was an increased polarization between age groups. In Australia, a steady decrease in smoking rates appears to have stalled in younger pregnant women. Conclusion: Although smoking has declined substantially in recent decades, there are groups lagging behind this general trend. Young pregnant women are of particular concern in this respect. The possibility that these findings reflect the changing characteristics of younger pregnant women is discussed. Implications: This study puts recent trends in maternal smoking into a broader context by relating developments to changes in smoking rates among women in general. By using similar data from four countries we were able to follow changes in smoking rates “within” groups of women within the four countries without being limited by methodological problems related to cross-country or inter-group comparisons. We were above all able to show that aggregate data disclose the strong age gradient in maternal smoking habits. PMID:27613884

Population-dependent effects of ocean acidification.

PubMed

Wood, Hannah L; Sundell, Kristina; Almroth, Bethanie Carney; Sköld, Helén Nilsson; Eriksson, Susanne P

2016-04-13

Elevated carbon dioxide levels and the resultant ocean acidification (OA) are changing the abiotic conditions of the oceans at a greater rate than ever before and placing pressure on marine species. Understanding the response of marine fauna to this change is critical for understanding the effects of OA. Population-level variation in OA tolerance is highly relevant and important in the determination of ecosystem resilience and persistence, but has received little focus to date. In this study, whether OA has the same biological consequences in high-salinity-acclimated population versus a low-salinity-acclimated population of the same species was investigated in the marine isopod Idotea balthica.The populations were found to have physiologically different responses to OA. While survival rate was similar between the two study populations at a future CO2 level of 1000 ppm, and both populations showed increased oxidative stress, the metabolic rate and osmoregulatory activity differed significantly between the two populations. The results of this study demonstrate that the physiological response to OA of populations from different salinities can vary. Population-level variation and the environment provenance of individuals used in OA experiments should be taken into account for the evaluation and prediction of climate change effects. © 2016 The Author(s).

Population-dependent effects of ocean acidification

PubMed Central

Wood, Hannah L.; Sundell, Kristina; Almroth, Bethanie Carney; Sköld, Helén Nilsson; Eriksson, Susanne P.

2016-01-01

Elevated carbon dioxide levels and the resultant ocean acidification (OA) are changing the abiotic conditions of the oceans at a greater rate than ever before and placing pressure on marine species. Understanding the response of marine fauna to this change is critical for understanding the effects of OA. Population-level variation in OA tolerance is highly relevant and important in the determination of ecosystem resilience and persistence, but has received little focus to date. In this study, whether OA has the same biological consequences in high-salinity-acclimated population versus a low-salinity-acclimated population of the same species was investigated in the marine isopod Idotea balthica. The populations were found to have physiologically different responses to OA. While survival rate was similar between the two study populations at a future CO2 level of 1000 ppm, and both populations showed increased oxidative stress, the metabolic rate and osmoregulatory activity differed significantly between the two populations. The results of this study demonstrate that the physiological response to OA of populations from different salinities can vary. Population-level variation and the environment provenance of individuals used in OA experiments should be taken into account for the evaluation and prediction of climate change effects. PMID:27053741

Whole-Genome Sequencing and Variant Analysis of Human Papillomavirus 16 Infections.

PubMed

van der Weele, Pascal; Meijer, Chris J L M; King, Audrey J

2017-10-01

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a strongly conserved DNA virus, high-risk types of which can cause cervical cancer in persistent infections. The most common type found in HPV-attributable cancer is HPV16, which can be subdivided into four lineages (A to D) with different carcinogenic properties. Studies have shown HPV16 sequence diversity in different geographical areas, but only limited information is available regarding HPV16 diversity within a population, especially at the whole-genome level. We analyzed HPV16 major variant diversity and conservation in persistent infections and performed a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) comparison between persistent and clearing infections. Materials were obtained in the Netherlands from a cohort study with longitudinal follow-up for up to 3 years. Our analysis shows a remarkably large variant diversity in the population. Whole-genome sequences were obtained for 57 persistent and 59 clearing HPV16 infections, resulting in 109 unique variants. Interestingly, persistent infections were completely conserved through time. One reinfection event was identified where the initial and follow-up samples clustered differently. Non-A1/A2 variants seemed to clear preferentially ( P = 0.02). Our analysis shows that population-wide HPV16 sequence diversity is very large. In persistent infections, the HPV16 sequence was fully conserved. Sequencing can identify HPV16 reinfections, although occurrence is rare. SNP comparison identified no strongly acting effect of the viral genome affecting HPV16 infection clearance or persistence in up to 3 years of follow-up. These findings suggest the progression of an early HPV16 infection could be host related. IMPORTANCE Human papillomavirus 16 (HPV16) is the predominant type found in cervical cancer. Progression of initial infection to cervical cancer has been linked to sequence properties; however, knowledge of variants circulating in European populations, especially with longitudinal follow-up, is limited. By sequencing a number of infections with known follow-up for up to 3 years, we gained initial insights into the genetic diversity of HPV16 and the effects of the viral genome on the persistence of infections. A SNP comparison between sequences obtained from clearing and persistent infections did not identify strongly acting DNA variations responsible for these infection outcomes. In addition, we identified an HPV16 reinfection event where sequencing of initial and follow-up samples showed different HPV16 variants. Based on conventional genotyping, this infection would incorrectly be considered a persistent HPV16 infection. In the context of vaccine efficacy and monitoring studies, such infections could potentially cause reduced reported efficacy or efficiency. Copyright © 2017 van der Weele et al.

A fine-scale assessment of using barriers to conserve native stream salmonids: a case study in Akokala Creek, Glacier National Park, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muhlfeld, Clint C.; D'Angelo, Vincent S.; S. T. Kalinowski,; Landguth, Erin L.; C. C. Downs,; J. Tohtz,; Kershner, Jeffrey L.

2012-01-01

Biologists are often faced with the difficult decision in managing native salmonids of where and when to install barriers as a conservation action to prevent upstream invasion of nonnative fishes. However, fine-scale approaches to assess long-term persistence of populations within streams and watersheds chosen for isolation management are often lacking. We employed a spatially-explicit approach to evaluate stream habitat conditions, relative abundance, and genetic diversity of native westslope cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi) within the Akokala Creek watershed in Glacier National Park- a population threatened by introgressive hybridization with nonnative rainbow trout (O. mykiss) from nearby sources. The systematic survey of 24 stream reaches showed broad overlap in fish population and suitable habitat characteristics among reaches and no natural barriers to fish migration were found. Analysis of population structure using 16 microsatellite loci showed modest amounts of genetic diversity among reaches, and that fish from Long Bow Creek were the only moderately distinct genetic group. We then used this information to assess the potential impacts of three barrier placement scenarios on long-term population persistence and genetic diversity. The two barrier placement scenarios in headwater areas generally failed to meet general persistence criteria for minimum population size (2,500 individuals, Ne = 500), maintenance of long-term genetic diversity (He), and no population subdivision. Conversely, placing a barrier near the stream mouth and selectively passing non-hybridized, migratory spawners entering Akokala Creek met all persistence criteria and may offer the best option to conserve native trout populations and life history diversity. Systematic, fine-scale stream habitat, fish distribution, and genetic assessments in streams chosen for barrier installation are needed in conjunction with broader scale assessments to understand the potential impacts of using barriers for conservation of native salmonid populations threatened by nonnative fish invasions.

First genealogy for a wild marine fish population reveals multigenerational philopatry.

PubMed

Salles, Océane C; Pujol, Benoit; Maynard, Jeffrey A; Almany, Glenn R; Berumen, Michael L; Jones, Geoffrey P; Saenz-Agudelo, Pablo; Srinivasan, Maya; Thorrold, Simon R; Planes, Serge

2016-11-15

Natal philopatry, the return of individuals to their natal area for reproduction, has advantages and disadvantages for animal populations. Natal philopatry may generate local genetic adaptation, but it may also increase the probability of inbreeding that can compromise persistence. Although natal philopatry is well documented in anadromous fishes, marine fish may also return to their birth site to spawn. How philopatry shapes wild fish populations is, however, unclear because it requires constructing multigenerational pedigrees that are currently lacking for marine fishes. Here we present the first multigenerational pedigree for a marine fish population by repeatedly genotyping all individuals in a population of the orange clownfish (Amphiprion percula) at Kimbe Island (Papua New Guinea) during a 10-y period. Based on 2927 individuals, our pedigree analysis revealed that longitudinal philopatry was recurrent over five generations. Progeny tended to settle close to their parents, with related individuals often sharing the same colony. However, successful inbreeding was rare, and genetic diversity remained high, suggesting occasional inbreeding does not impair local population persistence. Local reproductive success was dependent on the habitat larvae settled into, rather than the habitat they came from. Our study suggests that longitudinal philopatry can influence both population replenishment and local adaptation of marine fishes. Resolving multigenerational pedigrees during a relatively short period, as we present here, provides a framework for assessing the ability of marine populations to persist and adapt to accelerating climate change.

First genealogy for a wild marine fish population reveals multigenerational philopatry

PubMed Central

Salles, Océane C.; Pujol, Benoit; Maynard, Jeffrey A.; Almany, Glenn R.; Berumen, Michael L.; Jones, Geoffrey P.; Saenz-Agudelo, Pablo; Srinivasan, Maya; Thorrold, Simon R.; Planes, Serge

2016-01-01

Natal philopatry, the return of individuals to their natal area for reproduction, has advantages and disadvantages for animal populations. Natal philopatry may generate local genetic adaptation, but it may also increase the probability of inbreeding that can compromise persistence. Although natal philopatry is well documented in anadromous fishes, marine fish may also return to their birth site to spawn. How philopatry shapes wild fish populations is, however, unclear because it requires constructing multigenerational pedigrees that are currently lacking for marine fishes. Here we present the first multigenerational pedigree for a marine fish population by repeatedly genotyping all individuals in a population of the orange clownfish (Amphiprion percula) at Kimbe Island (Papua New Guinea) during a 10-y period. Based on 2927 individuals, our pedigree analysis revealed that longitudinal philopatry was recurrent over five generations. Progeny tended to settle close to their parents, with related individuals often sharing the same colony. However, successful inbreeding was rare, and genetic diversity remained high, suggesting occasional inbreeding does not impair local population persistence. Local reproductive success was dependent on the habitat larvae settled into, rather than the habitat they came from. Our study suggests that longitudinal philopatry can influence both population replenishment and local adaptation of marine fishes. Resolving multigenerational pedigrees during a relatively short period, as we present here, provides a framework for assessing the ability of marine populations to persist and adapt to accelerating climate change. PMID:27799530

Persistence and diversity of faecal coliform and enterococci populations in faecally polluted waters.

PubMed

Bonjoch, X; García-Aljaro, C; Blanch, A R

2011-07-01

To assess the persistence and diversity of faecal bacterial populations (faecal coliforms and enterococci) that have recently been included in microbial source tracking (MST) predictive models. The analysed bacterial populations included members of the enterococci group (ENT) [Enterococcus faecium (FM), Enterococcus faecalis (FS) and Enterococcus hirae (HIR)] and the faecal coliform group (FC) [diverse Escherichia coli phenotypes (ECP) and cellobiose-negative faecal coliforms (CNFC)]. The inactivation of these distinct groups was monitored over time on-site in river by biochemical fingerprinting, and diversity indices were calculated. Among the different analysed species belonging to the ENT group, HIR persisted longer and was able to replicate in the environment at a higher rate. On the other hand, ECP and NCFC showed a similar persistence throughout the different seasons. The diversity index (Di) for FC increased substantially in the summer after 96 h to a maximum value of 0·96. On the other hand, the Di for ENT diminished over the same period to a value of 0·86, suggesting a different persistence for the different species integrating this group. The persistence of ECP, CNFC, FM and FS in the aquatic environment is high, particularly for the members of the FC and in the summer season. On the contrary, HIR is able to replicate in the environment at a high rate even in winter, and therefore, its inclusion in MST predictive models is discouraged. ECP, CNFC, FMFS and HIR have been proposed as additional variables in MST predictive models. However, the different persistence of HIR compared with the other variables should be taken into account for the development of such models. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Applied Microbiology © 2011 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

Functional Significance of Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms in the Lactase Gene in Diverse United States Subjects and Evidence for a Novel Lactase Persistence Allele at -13909 in Those of European Ancestry

PubMed Central

Baffour-Awuah, Nana Yaa; Fleet, Sarah; Baker, Susan S.; Butler, Johannah L.; Campbell, Catarina; Tischfield, Samuel; Mitchell, Paul D.; Moon, Jennifer E.; Allende-Richter, Sophie; Fishman, Laurie; Bousvaros, Athos; Fox, Victor; Kuokkanen, Mikko; Montgomery, Robert K.; Grand, Richard J.; Hirschhorn, Joel N.

2014-01-01

Objectives Recent data from mainly homogeneous European and African populations implicate a 140 bp region 5′ to the transcriptional start site of LCT (the lactase gene) as a regulatory site for lactase persistence and non-persistence. As there are no studies of United States non-homogeneous populations, we performed genotype/phenotype analysis of the -13910 and -22018 LCT SNPs in New England children, mostly of European ancestry. Methods Duodenal biopsies were processed for disaccharidase activities, RNA quantification by RT-PCR, allelic expression ratios by PCR, and genotyping and SNP analysis. Results were compared to clinical information. Results Lactase activity and mRNA levels, as well as sucrase-to-lactase ratios of enzyme activity and mRNA, showed robust correlations with genotype. None of the other LCT SNPs showed as strong a correlation with enzyme or mRNA activities as did -13910. Data were consistent with the -13910 being the causal sequence variant rather than -22018. Four individuals heterozygous for -13910T/C had allelic expression patterns similar to individuals with -13910C/C genotypes; of these, 2 showed equal LCT expression from the 2 alleles and a novel variant (-13909C>A) associated with lactase persistence. Conclusion The identification of -13910C/C genotype is very likely to predict lactase non-persistence, consistent with prior published studies. A -13910T/T genotype will frequently, but not perfectly, predict lactase persistence in this mixed European-ancestry population; a -13910T/C genotype will not predict the phenotype. A long, rare haplotype in 2 individuals with -13910T/C genotype but equal allele-specific expression contains a novel lactase persistence allele present at -13909. PMID:25625576

The spreading dynamics of sexually transmitted diseases with birth and death on heterogeneous networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yi; Cao, Jinde; Alsaedi, Ahmed; Hayat, Tasawar

2017-02-01

In this paper, we formulate a deterministic model by including the vacant sites, which represent inactive individuals or potential contacts, to investigate the spreading dynamics of sexually transmitted diseases in heterogeneous networks. We first analytically derive the basic reproduction number R 0, which completely determines global dynamics of the system in the long run. Specifically, if R 0  <  1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, i.e. disease disappears from the network irrespective of initial infected numbers and distributions, whereas if R 0  >  1, the system is uniformly persistent around a unique endemic equilibrium, i.e. disease persists in the network. Furthermore, by using a suitable Lyapunov function the global stability of endemic equilibrium for low/high-risk infected individuals only is proved. Finally, the effects of three immunization schemes are studied and compared, and extensive numerical simulations are performed to investigate the effect of network topology and population turnover on disease spread. Our results suggest that population turnover could have great impact on the sexually transmitted disease system in heterogeneous networks, including the basic reproduction number and infection prevalence.

Logistics Regression to Determine the Influence of Bean and Metzner's Persistence Factors as Defined by the Community College Survey of Student Engagement (CCSSE) on Nontraditional Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alley, Kristen A.

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to explore Bean and Metzner's (1985) persistence factors, defined by items on the Community College Survey of Student Engagement (CCSSE), to determine the impact on nontraditional student persistence. This quantitative study measured nontraditional student persistence at a community college in the Midwest using…

Landscape-scale distribution and persistence of genetically modified oilseed rape (Brassica napus) in Manitoba, Canada.

PubMed

Knispel, Alexis L; McLachlan, Stéphane M

2010-01-01

Genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) oilseed rape (OSR; Brassica napus L.) was approved for commercial cultivation in Canada in 1995 and currently represents over 95% of the OSR grown in western Canada. After a decade of widespread cultivation, GMHT volunteers represent an increasing management problem in cultivated fields and are ubiquitous in adjacent ruderal habitats, where they contribute to the spread of transgenes. However, few studies have considered escaped GMHT OSR populations in North America, and even fewer have been conducted at large spatial scales (i.e. landscape scales). In particular, the contribution of landscape structure and large-scale anthropogenic dispersal processes to the persistence and spread of escaped GMHT OSR remains poorly understood. We conducted a multi-year survey of the landscape-scale distribution of escaped OSR plants adjacent to roads and cultivated fields. Our objective was to examine the long-term dynamics of escaped OSR at large spatial scales and to assess the relative importance of landscape and localised factors to the persistence and spread of these plants outside of cultivation. From 2005 to 2007, we surveyed escaped OSR plants along roadsides and field edges at 12 locations in three agricultural landscapes in southern Manitoba where GMHT OSR is widely grown. Data were analysed to examine temporal changes at large spatial scales and to determine factors affecting the distribution of escaped OSR plants in roadside and field edge habitats within agricultural landscapes. Additionally, we assessed the potential for seed dispersal between escaped populations by comparing the relative spatial distribution of roadside and field edge OSR. Densities of escaped OSR fluctuated over space and time in both roadside and field edge habitats, though the proportion of GMHT plants was high (93-100%). Escaped OSR was positively affected by agricultural landscape (indicative of cropping intensity) and by the presence of an adjacent field planted to OSR. Within roadside habitats, escaped OSR was also strongly associated with large-scale variables, including road surface (indicative of traffic intensity) and distance to the nearest grain elevator. Conversely, within field edges, OSR density was affected by localised crop management practices such as mowing, soil disturbance and herbicide application. Despite the proximity of roadsides and field edges, there was little evidence of spatial aggregation among escaped OSR populations in these two habitats, especially at very fine spatial scales (i.e. <100 m), suggesting that natural propagule exchange is infrequent. Escaped OSR populations were persistent at large spatial and temporal scales, and low density in a given landscape or year was not indicative of overall extinction. As a result of ongoing cultivation and transport of OSR crops, escaped GMHT traits will likely remain predominant in agricultural landscapes. While escaped OSR in field edge habitats generally results from local seeding and management activities occurring at the field-scale, distribution patterns within roadside habitats are determined in large part by seed transport occurring at the landscape scale and at even larger regional scales. Our findings suggest that these large-scale anthropogenic dispersal processes are sufficient to enable persistence despite limited natural seed dispersal. This widespread dispersal is likely to undermine field-scale management practices aimed at eliminating escaped and in-field GMHT OSR populations. Agricultural transport and landscape-scale cropping patterns are important determinants of the distribution of escaped GM crops. At the regional level, these factors ensure ongoing establishment and spread of escaped GMHT OSR despite limited local seed dispersal. Escaped populations thus play an important role in the spread of transgenes and have substantial implications for the coexistence of GM and non-GM production systems. Given the large-scale factors driving the spread of escaped transgenes, localised co-existence measures may be impracticable where they are not commensurate with regional dispersal mechanisms. To be effective, strategies aimed at reducing contamination from GM crops should be multi-scale in approach and be developed and implemented at both farm and landscape levels of organisation. Multiple stakeholders should thus be consulted, including both GM and non-GM farmers, as well as seed developers, processors, transporters and suppliers. Decisions to adopt GM crops require thoughtful and inclusive consideration of the risks and responsibilities inherent in this new technology.

Frequent use of chemical household products is associated with persistent wheezing in pre-school age children.

PubMed

Sherriff, A; Farrow, A; Golding, J; Henderson, J

2005-01-01

In the UK and other developed countries the prevalence of asthma symptoms has increased in recent years. This is likely to be the result of increased exposure to environmental factors. A study was undertaken to investigate the association between maternal use of chemical based products in the prenatal period and patterns of wheeze in early childhood. In the population based Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), the frequency of use of 11 chemical based domestic products was determined from questionnaires completed by women during pregnancy and a total chemical burden (TCB) score was derived. Four mutually exclusive wheezing patterns were defined for the period from birth to 42 months based on parental questionnaire responses (never wheezed, transient early wheeze, persistent wheeze, and late onset wheeze). Multinomial logistic regression models were used to assess the relationship between these wheezing outcomes and TCB exposure while accounting for numerous potential confounding variables. Complete data for analysis was available for 7019 of 13, 971 (50%) children. The mean (SD) TCB score was 9.4 (4.1), range 0-30. Increased use of domestic chemical based products was associated with persistent wheezing during early childhood (adjusted odds ratio (OR) per unit increase of TCB 1.06 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03 to 1.09)) but not with transient early wheeze or late onset wheeze. Children whose mothers had high TCB scores (>90th centile) were more than twice as likely to wheeze persistently throughout early childhood than children whose mothers had a low TCB score (<10th centile) (adjusted OR 2.3 (95% CI 1.2 to 4.4)). These findings suggest that frequent use of chemical based products in the prenatal period is associated with persistent wheezing in young children. Follow up of this cohort is underway to determine whether TCB is associated with wheezing, asthma, and atopy at later stages in childhood.

Frequent use of chemical household products is associated with persistent wheezing in pre-school age children

PubMed Central

Sherriff, A; Farrow, A; Golding, J; the, A; Henderson, J

2005-01-01

Background: In the UK and other developed countries the prevalence of asthma symptoms has increased in recent years. This is likely to be the result of increased exposure to environmental factors. A study was undertaken to investigate the association between maternal use of chemical based products in the prenatal period and patterns of wheeze in early childhood. Methods: In the population based Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), the frequency of use of 11 chemical based domestic products was determined from questionnaires completed by women during pregnancy and a total chemical burden (TCB) score was derived. Four mutually exclusive wheezing patterns were defined for the period from birth to 42 months based on parental questionnaire responses (never wheezed, transient early wheeze, persistent wheeze, and late onset wheeze). Multinomial logistic regression models were used to assess the relationship between these wheezing outcomes and TCB exposure while accounting for numerous potential confounding variables. Complete data for analysis was available for 7019 of 13 971 (50%) children. Results: The mean (SD) TCB score was 9.4 (4.1), range 0–30. Increased use of domestic chemical based products was associated with persistent wheezing during early childhood (adjusted odds ratio (OR) per unit increase of TCB 1.06 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03 to 1.09)) but not with transient early wheeze or late onset wheeze. Children whose mothers had high TCB scores (>90th centile) were more than twice as likely to wheeze persistently throughout early childhood than children whose mothers had a low TCB score (<10th centile) (adjusted OR 2.3 (95% CI 1.2 to 4.4)). Conclusion: These findings suggest that frequent use of chemical based products in the prenatal period is associated with persistent wheezing in young children. Follow up of this cohort is underway to determine whether TCB is associated with wheezing, asthma, and atopy at later stages in childhood. PMID:15618582

Evolutionary maintenance of selfish homing endonuclease genes in the absence of horizontal transfer.

PubMed

Yahara, Koji; Fukuyo, Masaki; Sasaki, Akira; Kobayashi, Ichizo

2009-11-03

Homing endonuclease genes are "selfish" mobile genetic elements whose endonuclease promotes the spread of its own gene by creating a break at a specific target site and using the host machinery to repair the break by copying and inserting the gene at this site. Horizontal transfer across the boundary of a species or population within which mating takes place has been thought to be necessary for their evolutionary persistence. This is based on the assumption that they will become fixed in a host population, where opportunities of homing will disappear, and become susceptible to degeneration. To test this hypothesis, we modeled behavior of a homing endonuclease gene that moves during meiosis through double-strand break repair. We mathematically explored conditions for persistence of the homing endonuclease gene and elucidated their parameter dependence as phase diagrams. We found that, if the cost of the pseudogene is lower than that of the homing endonuclease gene, the 2 forms can persist in a population through autonomous periodic oscillation. If the cost of the pseudogene is higher, 2 types of dynamics appear that enable evolutionary persistence: bistability dependent on initial frequency or fixation irrespective of initial frequency. The prediction of long persistence in the absence of horizontal transfer was confirmed by stochastic simulations in finite populations. The average time to extinction of the endonuclease gene was found to be thousands of meiotic generations or more based on realistic parameter values. These results provide a solid theoretical basis for an understanding of these and other extremely selfish elements.

Evolutionary maintenance of selfish homing endonuclease genes in the absence of horizontal transfer

PubMed Central

Yahara, Koji; Fukuyo, Masaki; Sasaki, Akira; Kobayashi, Ichizo

2009-01-01

Homing endonuclease genes are “selfish” mobile genetic elements whose endonuclease promotes the spread of its own gene by creating a break at a specific target site and using the host machinery to repair the break by copying and inserting the gene at this site. Horizontal transfer across the boundary of a species or population within which mating takes place has been thought to be necessary for their evolutionary persistence. This is based on the assumption that they will become fixed in a host population, where opportunities of homing will disappear, and become susceptible to degeneration. To test this hypothesis, we modeled behavior of a homing endonuclease gene that moves during meiosis through double-strand break repair. We mathematically explored conditions for persistence of the homing endonuclease gene and elucidated their parameter dependence as phase diagrams. We found that, if the cost of the pseudogene is lower than that of the homing endonuclease gene, the 2 forms can persist in a population through autonomous periodic oscillation. If the cost of the pseudogene is higher, 2 types of dynamics appear that enable evolutionary persistence: bistability dependent on initial frequency or fixation irrespective of initial frequency. The prediction of long persistence in the absence of horizontal transfer was confirmed by stochastic simulations in finite populations. The average time to extinction of the endonuclease gene was found to be thousands of meiotic generations or more based on realistic parameter values. These results provide a solid theoretical basis for an understanding of these and other extremely selfish elements. PMID:19837694

Facilitative Effect of a Generalist Herbivore on the Recovery of a Perennial Alga: Consequences for Persistence at the Edge of Their Geographic Range.

PubMed

Aguilera, Moisés A; Valdivia, Nelson; Broitman, Bernardo R

2015-01-01

Understanding the impacts of consumers on the abundance, growth rate, recovery and persistence of their resources across their distributional range can shed light on the role of trophic interactions in determining species range shifts. Here, we examined if consumptive effects of the intertidal grazer Scurria viridula positively influences the abundance and recovery from disturbances of the alga Mazzaella laminarioides at the edge of its geographic distributions in northern-central Chilean rocky shores. Through field experiments conducted at a site in the region where M. laminarioides overlaps with the polar range edge of S. viridula, we estimated the effects of grazing on different life stages of M. laminarioides. We also used long-term abundance surveys conducted across ~700 km of the shore to evaluate co-occurrence patterns of the study species across their range overlap. We found that S. viridula had positive net effects on M. laminarioides by increasing its cover and re-growth from perennial basal crusts. Probability of occurrence of M. laminarioides increased significantly with increasing density of S. viridula across the range overlap. The negative effect of S. viridula on the percentage cover of opportunistic green algae-shown to compete for space with corticated algae-suggests that competitive release may be part of the mechanism driving the positive effect of the limpet on the abundance and recovery from disturbance of M. laminarioides. We suggest that grazer populations contribute to enhance the abundance of M. laminarioides, facilitating its recolonization and persistence at its distributional range edge. Our study highlights that indirect facilitation can determine the recovery and persistence of a resource at the limit of its distribution, and may well contribute to the ecological mechanisms governing species distributions and range shifts.

Facilitative Effect of a Generalist Herbivore on the Recovery of a Perennial Alga: Consequences for Persistence at the Edge of Their Geographic Range

PubMed Central

Aguilera, Moisés A.; Valdivia, Nelson; Broitman, Bernardo R.

2015-01-01

Understanding the impacts of consumers on the abundance, growth rate, recovery and persistence of their resources across their distributional range can shed light on the role of trophic interactions in determining species range shifts. Here, we examined if consumptive effects of the intertidal grazer Scurria viridula positively influences the abundance and recovery from disturbances of the alga Mazzaella laminarioides at the edge of its geographic distributions in northern-central Chilean rocky shores. Through field experiments conducted at a site in the region where M. laminarioides overlaps with the polar range edge of S. viridula, we estimated the effects of grazing on different life stages of M. laminarioides. We also used long-term abundance surveys conducted across ~700 km of the shore to evaluate co-occurrence patterns of the study species across their range overlap. We found that S. viridula had positive net effects on M. laminarioides by increasing its cover and re-growth from perennial basal crusts. Probability of occurrence of M. laminarioides increased significantly with increasing density of S. viridula across the range overlap. The negative effect of S. viridula on the percentage cover of opportunistic green algae—shown to compete for space with corticated algae—suggests that competitive release may be part of the mechanism driving the positive effect of the limpet on the abundance and recovery from disturbance of M. laminarioides. We suggest that grazer populations contribute to enhance the abundance of M. laminarioides, facilitating its recolonization and persistence at its distributional range edge. Our study highlights that indirect facilitation can determine the recovery and persistence of a resource at the limit of its distribution, and may well contribute to the ecological mechanisms governing species distributions and range shifts. PMID:26716986

Elevation of CSF tumor necrosis factor alpha levels in new daily persistent headache and treatment refractory chronic migraine.

PubMed

Rozen, Todd; Swidan, Sahar Z

2007-01-01

To determine if patients with new daily persistent headache (NDPH) have elevated levels of tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF alpha) in the CSF. NDPH is considered one of the most treatment resistant of all headache syndromes. This reflects a lack of understanding of its pathogenesis. As a certain percentage of NDPH patients have their headaches start after an infection, the possibility of a persistent state of systemic or CNS inflammation comes into question. TNF alpha is a proinflammatory cytokine involved in brain immune and inflammatory activities, as well as in pain initiation. The goal of this study was to look at TNF alpha levels in the CSF of NDPH patients, to determine if CNS inflammation may play some role in the pathogenesis of this condition. CSF TNF alpha levels were studied in 38 patients: 20 with NDPH and a control population of 16 patients with chronic migraine (CM), and 2 with post-traumatic headache (PT). CSF TNF alpha levels were elevated in 19 of 20 NDPH patients, 16 of 16 CM patients, and both PT patients. Serum TNF alpha levels were normal in most of the study subjects. An elevation of CSF TNF alpha levels was found in almost all NDPH patients and suggest a role for TNF alpha in the pathogenesis of this condition. Surprisingly, all CM and PT patients tested had elevated CSF TNF alpha levels. In most patients with elevated CSF levels, serum TNF alpha levels were normal. All of these syndromes may be manifestations of CNS inflammation. As most of the positive-tested patients showed minimal to no improvement during aggressive inpatient treatment, persistent elevation of CSF TNF alpha levels may be one of the causes of treatment refractory CDH.

Distribution of the Luminous Bacterium Beneckea harveyi in a Semitropical Estuarine Environment

PubMed Central

O'Brien, Catherine H.; Sizemore, Ronald K.

1979-01-01

Bioluminescent bacteria were found in the water column, sediment, shrimp, and gastrointestinal tract of marine fishes from the semitropical estuarine environment of the East Lagoon, Galveston Island, Tex. Populations in the water column decreased during cold weather while sedimentary populations persisted. The highest percentages of luminous organisms were isolated from the gastrointestinal tract of marine fishes, where they persisted during 5 days of starvation. The presence of chitin temporarily increased intestinal populations. All isolates were Beneckea harveyi, whose natural habitat appears to be the gut of fishes and whose free-living reservoir appears to be marine sediments. PMID:16345465

Two regulatory RNA elements affect TisB-dependent depolarization and persister formation.

PubMed

Berghoff, Bork A; Hoekzema, Mirthe; Aulbach, Lena; Wagner, E Gerhart H

2017-03-01

Bacterial survival strategies involve phenotypic diversity which is generated by regulatory factors and noisy expression of effector proteins. The question of how bacteria exploit regulatory RNAs to make decisions between phenotypes is central to a general understanding of these universal regulators. We investigated the TisB/IstR-1 toxin-antitoxin system of Escherichia coli to appreciate the role of the RNA antitoxin IstR-1 in TisB-dependent depolarization of the inner membrane and persister formation. Persisters are phenotypic variants that have become transiently drug-tolerant by arresting growth. The RNA antitoxin IstR-1 sets a threshold for TisB-dependent depolarization under DNA-damaging conditions, resulting in two sub-populations: polarized and depolarized cells. Furthermore, our data indicate that an inhibitory 5' UTR structure in the tisB mRNA serves as a regulatory RNA element that delays TisB translation to avoid inappropriate depolarization when DNA damage is low. Investigation of the persister sub-population further revealed that both regulatory RNA elements affect persister levels as well as persistence time. This work provides an intriguing example of how bacteria exploit regulatory RNAs to control phenotypic heterogeneity. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Population collapse to extinction: the catastrophic combination of parasitism and Allee effect.

PubMed

Hilker, Frank M

2010-01-01

Infectious diseases are responsible for the extinction of a number of species. In conventional epidemic models, the transition from endemic population persistence to extirpation takes place gradually. However, if host demographics exhibits a strong Allee effect (AE) (population decline at low densities), extinction can occur abruptly in a catastrophic population crash. This might explain why species suddenly disappear even when they used to persist at high endemic population levels. Mathematically, the tipping point towards population collapse is associated with a saddle-node bifurcation. The underlying mechanism is the simultaneous population size depression and the increase of the extinction threshold due to parasite pathogenicity and Allee effect. Since highly pathogenic parasites cause their own extinction but not that of their host, there can be another saddle-node bifurcation with the re-emergence of two endemic equilibria. The implications for control interventions are discussed, suggesting that effective management may be possible for ℛ(0)≫1.

Impact of Pathogen Population Heterogeneity and Stress-Resistant Variants on Food Safety.

PubMed

Abee, T; Koomen, J; Metselaar, K I; Zwietering, M H; den Besten, H M W

2016-01-01

This review elucidates the state-of-the-art knowledge about pathogen population heterogeneity and describes the genotypic and phenotypic analyses of persister subpopulations and stress-resistant variants. The molecular mechanisms underlying the generation of persister phenotypes and genetic variants are identified. Zooming in on Listeria monocytogenes, a comparative whole-genome sequence analysis of wild types and variants that enabled the identification of mutations in variants obtained after a single exposure to lethal food-relevant stresses is described. Genotypic and phenotypic features are compared to those for persistent strains isolated from food processing environments. Inactivation kinetics, models used for fitting, and the concept of kinetic modeling-based schemes for detection of variants are presented. Furthermore, robustness and fitness parameters of L. monocytogenes wild type and variants are used to model their performance in food chains. Finally, the impact of stress-resistant variants and persistence in food processing environments on food safety is discussed.

Effects of harvesting flowers from shrubs on the persistence and abundance of wild shrub populations at multiple spatial extents.

PubMed

Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Bond, William J; Midgley, Guy F; Rebelo, Anthony G; Thuiller, Wilfried; Schurr, Frank M

2011-02-01

Wildflower harvesting is an economically important activity of which the ecological effects are poorly understood. We assessed how harvesting of flowers affects shrub persistence and abundance at multiple spatial extents. To this end, we built a process-based model to examine the mean persistence and abundance of wild shrubs whose flowers are subject to harvest (serotinous Proteaceae in the South African Cape Floristic Region). First, we conducted a general sensitivity analysis of how harvesting affects persistence and abundance at nested spatial extents. For most spatial extents and combinations of demographic parameters, persistence and abundance of flowering shrubs decreased abruptly once harvesting rate exceeded a certain threshold. At larger extents, metapopulations supported higher harvesting rates before their persistence and abundance decreased, but persistence and abundance also decreased more abruptly due to harvesting than at smaller extents. This threshold rate of harvest varied with species' dispersal ability, maximum reproductive rate, adult mortality, probability of extirpation or local extinction, strength of Allee effects, and carrying capacity. Moreover, spatial extent interacted with Allee effects and probability of extirpation because both these demographic properties affected the response of local populations to harvesting more strongly than they affected the response of metapopulations. Subsequently, we simulated the effects of harvesting on three Cape Floristic Region Proteaceae species and found that these species reacted differently to harvesting, but their persistence and abundance decreased at low rates of harvest. Our estimates of harvesting rates at maximum sustainable yield differed from those of previous investigations, perhaps because researchers used different estimates of demographic parameters, models of population dynamics, and spatial extent than we did. Good demographic knowledge and careful identification of the spatial extent of interest increases confidence in assessments and monitoring of the effects of harvesting. Our general sensitivity analysis improved understanding of harvesting effects on metapopulation dynamics and allowed qualitative assessment of the probability of extirpation of poorly studied species. ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

PCB residues in the adipose tissue of the population of Barcelona (Spain)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gomez-Catalan, J.; Sabroso, M.; To-Figueras, J.

1991-10-01

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are a class of aryl halides widely distributed in the environment. Although production has virtually ceased, and most industrial applications (capacitors, transformers, hydraulic fluids, lubricants, etc) are severely restricted, they are one of the most ubiquitous and persistent environmental pollutants. Several toxic effects caused by PCBs have been described including: liver enlargement, hepatomegalocytosis, acne, lymphoid atrophy, immunosuppression, tumor promotion, porphyria. This work continues the authors' previous reports about organochlorine residues in human tissues of some Spanish populations, that showed high levels of some residues, specially of hexachlorobenzene (HCB). PCBs pattern and concentration in the adipose tissue ofmore » the inhabitants of an urban and industrial area (Barcelona) were determined.« less

Persistent left superior vena cava

PubMed Central

Tyrak, Kamil W; Hołda, Mateusz K; Koziej, Mateusz; Piątek, Katarzyna; Klimek-Piotrowska, Wiesława

2017-01-01

Summary Persistent left superior vena cava (PLSVC) is the most common congenital malformation of thoracic venous return and is present in 0.3 to 0.5% of individuals in the general population. This heart specimen was dissected from a 35-yearold male cadaver whose cause of death was determined as non-cardiac. The heart was examined and we found a PLSVC draining into the coronary sinus. The right superior vena cava was present with a small-diameter ostium. An anomalous pulmonary vein pattern was observed; there was a common trunk to the left superior and left inferior pulmonary veins (diameter 17.8 mm) and an additional middle right pulmonary vein (diameter 2.7 mm) with two classic right pulmonary veins. The PLSVC draining into the coronary sinus had led to its enlargement, which could have altered the cardiac haemodynamics by significantly reducing the size of the left atrium and impeding its outflow via the mitral valve. PMID:28759082

Population genetic signatures of a climate change driven marine range extension.

PubMed

Ramos, Jorge E; Pecl, Gretta T; Moltschaniwskyj, Natalie A; Semmens, Jayson M; Souza, Carla A; Strugnell, Jan M

2018-06-22

Shifts in species distribution, or 'range shifts', are one of the most commonly documented responses to ocean warming, with important consequences for the function and structure of ecosystems, and for socio-economic activities. Understanding the genetic signatures of range shifts can help build our knowledge of the capacity of species to establish and persist in colonised areas. Here, seven microsatellite loci were used to examine the population connectivity, genetic structure and diversity of Octopus tetricus, which has extended its distribution several hundred kilometres polewards associated with the southwards extension of the warm East Australian Current along south-eastern Australia. The historical distribution and the range extension zones had significant genetic differences but levels of genetic diversity were comparable. The population in the range extension zone was sub-structured, contained relatively high levels of self-recruitment and was sourced by migrants from along the entire geographic distribution. Genetic bottlenecks and changes in population size were detected throughout the range extension axis. Persistent gene flow from throughout the historical zone and moderate genetic diversity may buffer the genetic bottlenecks and favour the range extension of O. tetricus. These characteristics may aid adaptation, establishment, and long-term persistence of the population in the range extension zone.

Differential patterns of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infection in relict amphibian populations following severe disease-associated declines.

PubMed

Whitfield, Steven M; Alvarado, Gilbert; Abarca, Juan; Zumbado, Hector; Zuñiga, Ibrahim; Wainwright, Mark; Kerby, Jacob

2017-09-20

Global amphibian biodiversity has declined dramatically in the past 4 decades, and many amphibian species have declined to near extinction as a result of emergence of the amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). However, persistent or recovering populations of several amphibian species have recently been rediscovered, and such populations may illustrate how amphibian species that are highly susceptible to chytridiomycosis may survive in the presence of Bd. We conducted field surveys for Bd infection in 7 species of Costa Rican amphibians (all species that have declined to near extinction but for which isolated populations persist) to characterize infection profiles in highly Bd-susceptible amphibians post-decline. We found highly variable patterns in infection, with some species showing low prevalence (~10%) and low infection intensity and others showing high infection prevalence (>80%) and either low or high infection intensity. Across sites, infection rates were negatively associated with mean annual precipitation, and infection intensity across sites was negatively associated with mean average temperatures. Our results illustrate that even the most Bd-susceptible amphibians can persist in Bd-enzootic ecosystems, and that multiple ecological or evolutionary mechanisms likely exist for host-pathogen co-existence between Bd and the most Bd-susceptible amphibian species. Continued monitoring of these populations is necessary to evaluate population trends (continuing decline, stability, or population growth). These results should inform efforts to mitigate impacts of Bd on amphibians in the field.

Persistence with Antihypertensive Drugs in Patients with Hypertension and Dementia in Germany.

PubMed

Jacob, Louis; Adam-Schnepf, Leonie; Kostev, Karel

2017-01-01

Hypertension, a chronic disease resulting from aging and its related physiopathological dysregulations, is often associated with dementia. The goal was to analyze the persistence with antihypertensive drugs in patients affected by both hypertension and dementia in Germany. This study included hypertension patients who were initially treated with antihypertensive drugs in 1,262 general practices in Germany between January 2013 and December 2015 (index date). Patients with hypertension and comorbid dementia were matched (1 : 1) to patients without dementia by age, gender, type of residence (nursing home versus home-care setting), physician, and initial antihypertensive therapy, using a propensity score method. The primary outcome was the rate of patients without treatment discontinuation with antihypertensive drugs in cases and controls in the 12 months following the index date. Cox regressions were used to determine the impact of dementia on persistence with antihypertensive treatment. This study included 2,191 patients with hypertension and comorbid dementia and 2,191 patients with hypertension but without dementia. The mean age was 79.3 years (SD = 10.3 years) in both groups. Twelve months after initiation of antihypertensive therapy, 73.5% of cases and 69.5% of controls were persistent (p < 0.001). Dementia was associated with a significant decrease in the risk of non-persistence with antihypertensive drugs in the entire population (HR = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.79-0.93). This finding was corroborated in five different subgroups (age ≤60 years, age 61-70 years, men, women, and patients living in home-care settings). Dementia was found to be a protective factor for persistence with antihypertensive drugs in Germany.

Persistence of nondysplastic Barrett's esophagus identifies patients at lower risk for esophageal adenocarcinoma: results from a large multicenter cohort.

PubMed

Gaddam, Srinivas; Singh, Mandeep; Balasubramanian, Gokulakrishnan; Thota, Prashanthi; Gupta, Neil; Wani, Sachin; Higbee, April D; Mathur, Sharad C; Horwhat, John D; Rastogi, Amit; Young, Patrick E; Cash, Brooks D; Bansal, Ajay; Vargo, John J; Falk, Gary W; Lieberman, David A; Sampliner, Richard E; Sharma, Prateek

2013-09-01

Recent population-based studies have shown a low risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) in patients with nondysplastic Barrett's esophagus (NDBE). We evaluated whether persistence of NDBE over multiple consecutive surveillance endoscopic examinations could be used in risk stratification of patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE). We performed a multicenter outcomes study of a large cohort of patients with BE. Based on the number of consecutive surveillance endoscopies showing NDBE, we identified 5 groups of patients. Patients in group 1 were found to have NDBE at their first esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD). Patients in group 2 were found to have NDBE on their first 2 consecutive EGDs. Similarly, patients in groups 3, 4, and 5 were found to have NDBE on 3, 4, and 5 consecutive surveillance EGDs. A logistic regression model was built to determine whether persistence of NDBE independently protected against development of cancer. Of a total of 3515 patients with BE, 1401 patients met the inclusion criteria (93.3% white; 87.5% men; median age, 60 ±17 years). The median follow-up period was 5 ± 3.9 years (7846 patient-years). The annual risk of EAC in groups 1 to 5 was 0.32%, 0.27%, 0.16%, 0.2%, and 0.11%, respectively (P for trend = .03). After adjusting for age, sex, and length of BE, persistence of NDBE, based on multiple surveillance endoscopies, was associated with a gradually lower likelihood of progression to EAC. Persistence of NDBE over several endoscopic examinations identifies patients who are at low risk for development of EAC. These findings support lengthening surveillance intervals or discontinuing surveillance of patients with persistent NDBE. Copyright © 2013 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Developing a conservation strategy to maximize persistence of an endangered freshwater mussel species while considering management effectiveness and cost

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, David R.; McRae, Sarah E.; Augspurger, Tom; Ratcliffe, Judith A.; Nichols, Robert B.; Eads, Chris B.; Savidge, Tim; Bogan, Arthur E.

2015-01-01

We used a structured decision-making process to develop conservation strategies to increase persistence of Dwarf Wedgemussel (Alasmidonta heterodon) in North Carolina, USA, while accounting for uncertainty in management effectiveness and considering costs. Alternative conservation strategies were portfolios of management actions that differed by location of management actions on the landscape. Objectives of the conservation strategy were to maximize species persistence, maintain genetic diversity, maximize public support, and minimize management costs. We compared 4 conservation strategies: 1) the ‘status quo’ strategy represented current management, 2) the ‘protect the best’ strategy focused on protecting the best populations in the Tar River basin, 3) the ‘expand the distribution’ strategy focused on management of extant populations and establishment of new populations in the Neuse River basin, and 4) the ‘hybrid’ strategy combined elements of each strategy to balance conservation in the Tar and Neuse River basins. A population model informed requirements for population management, and experts projected performance of alternative strategies over a 20-y period. The optimal strategy depended on the relative value placed on competing objectives, which can vary among stakeholders. The protect the best and hybrid strategies were optimal across a wide range of relative values with 2 exceptions: 1) if minimizing management cost was of overriding concern, then status quo was optimal, or 2) if maximizing population persistence in the Neuse River basin was emphasized, then expand the distribution strategy was optimal. The optimal strategy was robust to uncertainty in management effectiveness. Overall, the structured decision process can help identify the most promising strategies for endangered species conservation that maximize conservation benefit given the constraint of limited funding.

Population genomics reveals structure at the individual, host-tree scale and persistence of genotypic variants of the undomesticated yeast Saccharomyces paradoxus in a natural woodland.

PubMed

Xia, Wenjing; Nielly-Thibault, Lou; Charron, Guillaume; Landry, Christian R; Kasimer, Dahlia; Anderson, James B; Kohn, Linda M

2017-02-01

Genetic diversity in experimental, domesticated and wild populations of the related yeasts, Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Saccharomyces paradoxus, has been well described at the global scale. We investigated the population genomics of a local population on a small spatial scale to address two main questions. First, is there genomic variation in a S. paradoxus population at a spatial scale spanning centimetres (microsites) to tens of metres? Second, does the distribution of genomic variants persist over time? Our sample consisted of 42 S. paradoxus strains from 2014 and 43 strains from 2015 collected from the same 72 microsites around four host trees (Quercus rubra and Quercus alba) within 1 km 2 in a mixed hardwood forest in southern Ontario. Six additional S. paradoxus strains recovered from adjacent maple and beech trees in 2015 are also included in the sample. Whole-genome sequencing and genomic SNP analysis revealed five differentiated groups (clades) within the sampled area. The signal of persistence of genotypes in their microsites from 2014 to 2015 was highly significant. Isolates from the same tree tended to be more related than strains from different trees, with limited evidence of dispersal between trees. In growth assays, one genotype had a significantly longer lag phase than the other strains. Our results indicate that different clades coexist at fine spatial scale and that population structure persists over at least a one-year interval in these wild yeasts, suggesting the efficacy of yearly sampling to follow longer term genetic dynamics in future studies. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predictive factors of self-reported hand eczema in adult Danes: a population-based cohort study with 5-year follow-up.

PubMed

Heede, N G; Thyssen, J P; Thuesen, B H; Linneberg, A; Johansen, J D

2016-08-01

Information about predictive factors of hand eczema is crucial for primary prevention. To investigate predictive factors of hand eczema in adult Danes from the general population. Participants from a cross-sectional 5-year follow-up study in the general population, aged 18-72 years (n = 2270), completed questionnaires about skin health and were grouped into four hand eczema groups: 'never', 'incident', 'nonpersistent' and 'persistent'. Multiple logistic regression models adjusted for age group and sex were used to evaluate associations with baseline variables. The participation rate for the follow-up study was 66·5% (29·7% of the participants originally invited to the baseline study). A history of atopic dermatitis (AD) was associated with both persistent and incident hand eczema [odds ratio (OR) 9·0, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 5·6-14·4 and OR 3·0, 95% CI 1·7-5·2, respectively]. Thus, even in adulthood, a history of AD should be considered as a predictor of incident hand eczema. While filaggrin gene (FLG) null mutations were not associated with incident hand eczema, a statistically significant association was observed with persistent hand eczema (OR 3·1, 95% CI 1·8-5·2). Finally, contact sensitization (23 allergens without nickel) was also associated with persistent hand eczema (OR 2·5, 95% CI 1·2-5·0), independently of a history of AD. This study confirms a history of AD as the strongest predictor of persistent hand eczema. We additionally found that a history of AD was associated with incident hand eczema in adults, in contrast to FLG mutations, which were associated only with persistent hand eczema in individuals with a history of AD, and not with incident hand eczema. Our study adds new knowledge to the interplay between AD, FLG mutations and hand eczema in the adult general population. © 2016 British Association of Dermatologists.

Dynamics of a Subterranean Trophic Cascade in Space and Time

PubMed Central

Ram, Karthik; Gruner, Daniel S.; McLaughlin, John P.; Preisser, Evan L.; Strong, Donald R.

2008-01-01

Trophic cascades, whereby predators indirectly benefit plant biomass by reducing herbivore pressure, form the mechanistic basis for classical biological control of pest insects. Entomopathogenic nematodes (EPN) are lethal to a variety of insect hosts with soil-dwelling stages, making them promising biocontrol agents. EPN biological control programs, however, typically fail because nematodes do not establish, persist and/or recycle over multiple host generations in the field. A variety of factors such as local abiotic conditions, host quantity and quality, and rates of movement affect the probability of persistence. Here, we review results from 13 years of study on the biology and ecology of an endemic population of Heterorhabditis marelatus (Rhabditida: Heterorhabditidae) in a California coastal prairie. In a highly seasonal abiotic environment with intrinsic variation in soils, vegetation structure, and host availability, natural populations of H. marelatus persisted at high incidence at some but not all sites within our study area. Through a set of field and lab experiments, we describe mechanisms and hypotheses to understand the persistence of H. marelatus. We suggest that further ecological study of naturally occurring EPN populations can yield significant insight to improve the practice and management of biological control of soil-dwelling insect pests. PMID:19259524

Emergence of mammalian cell-adapted vesicular stomatitis virus from persistent infections of insect vector cells.

PubMed

Novella, Isabel S; Ebendick-Corpus, Bonnie E; Zárate, Selene; Miller, Eric L

2007-06-01

Arboviruses (arthropod-borne viruses) represent quintessential generalists, with the ability to infect and perform well in multiple hosts. However, antagonistic pleiotropy imposed a cost during the adaptation to persistent replication of vesicular stomatitis virus in sand fly cells and resulted in strains that initially replicated poorly in hamster cells, even when the virus was allowed to replicate periodically in the latter. Once a debilitated strain started replicating continuously in mammalian cells, fitness increased significantly. Fitness recovery did not entail back mutations or compensatory mutations, but instead, we observed the replacement of persistence-adapted genomes by mammalian cell-adapted strains with a full set of new, unrelated sequence changes. These mammalian cell-adapted genomes were present at low frequencies in the populations with a history of persistence for up to a year and quickly became dominant during mammalian infection, but coexistence was not stable in the long term. Periodic acute replication in mammalian cells likely contributed to extending the survival of minority genomes, but these genomes were also found in strictly persistent populations.

Integrated analysis for population estimation, management impact evaluation, and decision-making for a declining species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crawford, Brian A.; Moore, Clinton; Norton, Terry M.; Maerz, John C.

2018-01-01

A challenge for making conservation decisions is predicting how wildlife populations respond to multiple, concurrent threats and potential management strategies, usually under substantial uncertainty. Integrated modeling approaches can improve estimation of demographic rates necessary for making predictions, even for rare or cryptic species with sparse data, but their use in management applications is limited. We developed integrated models for a population of diamondback terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin) impacted by road-associated threats to (i) jointly estimate demographic rates from two mark-recapture datasets, while directly estimating road mortality and the impact of management actions deployed during the study; and (ii) project the population using population viability analysis under simulated management strategies to inform decision-making. Without management, population extirpation was nearly certain due to demographic impacts of road mortality, predators, and vegetation. Installation of novel flashing signage increased survival of terrapins that crossed roads by 30%. Signage, along with small roadside barriers installed during the study, increased population persistence probability, but the population was still predicted to decline. Management strategies that included actions targeting multiple threats and demographic rates resulted in the highest persistence probability, and roadside barriers, which increased adult survival, were predicted to increase persistence more than other actions. Our results support earlier findings showing mitigation of multiple threats is likely required to increase the viability of declining populations. Our approach illustrates how integrated models may be adapted to use limited data efficiently, represent system complexity, evaluate impacts of threats and management actions, and provide decision-relevant information for conservation of at-risk populations.

Robust permanence for ecological equations with internal and external feedbacks.

PubMed

Patel, Swati; Schreiber, Sebastian J

2018-07-01

Species experience both internal feedbacks with endogenous factors such as trait evolution and external feedbacks with exogenous factors such as weather. These feedbacks can play an important role in determining whether populations persist or communities of species coexist. To provide a general mathematical framework for studying these effects, we develop a theorem for coexistence for ecological models accounting for internal and external feedbacks. Specifically, we use average Lyapunov functions and Morse decompositions to develop sufficient and necessary conditions for robust permanence, a form of coexistence robust to large perturbations of the population densities and small structural perturbations of the models. We illustrate how our results can be applied to verify permanence in non-autonomous models, structured population models, including those with frequency-dependent feedbacks, and models of eco-evolutionary dynamics. In these applications, we discuss how our results relate to previous results for models with particular types of feedbacks.

Determining population based mortality risk in the Department of Veterans Affairs.

PubMed

Stefos, Theodore; Lehner, Laura; Render, Marta; Moran, Eileen; Almenoff, Peter

2012-06-01

We develop a patient level hierarchical regression model using administrative claims data to assess mortality outcomes for a national VA population. This model, which complements more traditional process driven performance measures, includes demographic variables and disease specific measures of risk classified by Diagnostic Cost Groups (DCGs). Results indicate some ability to discriminate survivors and non-survivors with an area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (C-statistic) of .86. Observed to expected mortality ranges from .86 to 1.12 across predicted mortality deciles while Risk Standardized Mortality Rates (RSMRs) range from .76 to 1.29 across 145 VA hospitals. Further research is necessary to understand mortality variation which persists even after adjusting for case mix differences. Future work is also necessary to examine the role of personal behaviors on patient outcomes and the potential impact on population survival rates from changes in treatment policy and infrastructure investment.

Persistent insomnia: the role of objective short sleep duration and mental health.

PubMed

Vgontzas, Alexandros N; Fernandez-Mendoza, Julio; Bixler, Edward O; Singareddy, Ravi; Shaffer, Michele L; Calhoun, Susan L; Liao, Duanping; Basta, Maria; Chrousos, George P

2012-01-01

Few population-based, longitudinal studies have examined risk factors for persistent insomnia, and the results are inconsistent. Furthermore, none of these studies have examined the role of polysomnographic (PSG) variables such as sleep duration or sleep apnea on the persistence of insomnia. Representative longitudinal study. Sleep laboratory. From a random, general population sample of 1741 individuals of the adult Penn State Cohort, 1395 were followed-up after 7.5 years. Individuals underwent one-night PSG and full medical evaluation at baseline and a telephone interview at follow-up. PSG sleep duration was analyzed as a continuous variable and as a categorical variable: < 6 h sleep (short sleep duration) and ≥ 6 h sleep (longer sleep duration). The rates of insomnia persistence, partial remission, and full remission were 44.0%, 30.0%, and 26.0%, respectively. Objective short sleep duration significantly increased the odds of persistent insomnia as compared to normal sleep (OR = 3.19) and to fully remitted insomnia (OR = 4.92). Mental health problems at baseline were strongly associated with persistent insomnia as compared to normal sleep (OR = 9.67) and to a lesser degree compared to fully remitted insomnia (OR = 3.68). Smoking, caffeine, and alcohol consumption and sleep apnea did not predict persistent insomnia. Objective short sleep duration and mental health problems are the strongest predictors of persistent insomnia. These data further support the validity and clinical utility of objective short sleep duration as a novel marker of the biological severity of insomnia.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Conlon, Brian P.; Nakayasu, Ernesto S.; Fleck, Laura E.

The current antibiotic crisis stems from two distinct phenomena-drug resistance, and drug tolerance. Resistance mechanisms such as drug efflux or modification prevent antibiotics from binding to their targets 1, allowing pathogens to grow. Antibiotic tolerance is the property of persister cells, phenotypic variants of regular bacteria 2. Antibiotics kill by corrupting targets, but these are inactive in dormant persisters, leading to tolerance. Persisters were first identified by Joseph Bigger in 1944, when he discovered a surviving sub-population of Staphylococcus following treatment with penicillin3. Persisters are largely responsible for recalcitrance of chronic diseases such as tuberculosis, and various infections associated withmore » biofilms - endocarditis, osteomyelitis, infections of catheters and indwelling devices, and deep-seated infections of soft tissues 4. There are a number of redundant pathways involved in persister formation5,6 precluding development of drugs inhibiting their formation. The acyldepsipeptide antibiotic (ADEP 4) has been shown to activate the ClpP protease resulting in death of growing cells 7. Here we show that ADEP4 activated ClpP becomes a fairly non-specific protease and kills persister cells by degradation of over 400 intracellular targets. clpP mutants are resistant to ADEP4 7, but we find that they display increased susceptibility to killing by a range of conventional antibiotics. Combining ADEP4 with rifampicin leads to eradication of persisters, stationary and biofilm populations of Staphylococcus aureus in vitro and in a deep-seated murine infection. Target corruption/activation provides an approach to killing persisters and eradicating chronic infections.« less

Heterogeneity in the determinants of health and illness: the example of socioeconomic status and smoking.

PubMed

Birch, S; Jerrett, M; Eyles, J

2000-07-01

Systematic variations in health and illness among social groups have persisted and, in some cases increased, in many countries in spite of improvements in the availability of, and access to, health care services. Health policy makers have responded by showing increasing interest in non-clinical determinants of health as a way of explaining the observed systematic variations in health and illness. Yet health care and non-health care "factors" are often seen as competing for society's scarce resources in the production of health. The purpose of this paper is to augment this traditional approach to understanding the determinants of health in populations by exploring heterogeneity in the smoking-health relationship between social groups. Logistic regression analyses were performed using data from the 1992-93 Santé Quebéc survey, a weighted random sample of the non-institutionalized population of the province of Québec, Canada (N = 23,564). The findings suggest that the likelihood of reporting health as poor or fair was greater for smokers than non-smokers. However, the difference between smokers and non-smokers was significantly greater among groups of the population with low incomes and without employment, but significantly less among sub-groups with lower levels of education. These findings suggest that the identification, evaluation and implementation of health care programmes need to pay greater attention to the interface between social, behavioural and clinical determinants of health.

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events

PubMed Central

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-01-01

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an ‘extinction window’ of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the ‘extinction window’, although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. PMID:24920116

Outbreak and Extinction Dynamics in a Stochastic Ebola Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nieddu, Garrett; Bianco, Simone; Billings, Lora; Forgoston, Eric; Kaufman, James

A zoonotic disease is a disease that can be passed between animals and humans. In many cases zoonotic diseases can persist in the animal population even if there are no infections in the human population. In this case we call the infected animal population the reservoir for the disease. Ebola virus disease (EVD) and SARS are both notable examples of such diseases. There is little work devoted to understanding stochastic disease extinction and reintroduction in the presence of a reservoir. Here we build a stochastic model for EVD and explicitly consider the presence of an animal reservoir. Using a master equation approach and a WKB ansatz, we determine the associated Hamiltonian of the system. Hamilton's equations are then used to numerically compute the 12-dimensional optimal path to extinction, which is then used to estimate mean extinction times. We also numerically investigate the behavior of the model for dynamic population size. Our results provide an improved understanding of outbreak and extinction dynamics in diseases like EVD.

Current practices in the identification of critical habitat for threatened species.

PubMed

Camaclang, Abbey E; Maron, Martine; Martin, Tara G; Possingham, Hugh P

2015-04-01

The term critical habitat is used to describe the subset of habitat that is essential to the survival and recovery of species. Some countries legally require that critical habitat of listed threatened and endangered species be identified and protected. However, there is little evidence to suggest that the identification of critical habitat has had much impact on species recovery. We hypothesized that this may be due at least partly to a mismatch between the intent of critical habitat identification, which is to protect sufficient habitat for species persistence and recovery, and its practice. We used content analysis to systematically review critical habitat documents from the United States, Canada, and Australia. In particular, we identified the major trends in type of information used to identify critical habitat and in occupancy of habitat identified as critical. Information about population viability was used to identify critical habitat for only 1% of the species reviewed, and for most species, designated critical habitat did not include unoccupied habitat. Without reference to population viability, it is difficult to determine how much of a species' occupied and unoccupied habitat will be required for persistence. We therefore conclude that the identification of critical habitat remains inconsistent with the goal of protecting sufficient habitat to support persistence and recovery of the species. Ensuring that critical habitat identification aligns more closely with its intent will improve the accuracy of the designations and may therefore help improve the benefits to species recovery when combined with adequate implementation and enforcement of legal protections. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Persistence of mental health problems and needs in a college student population.

PubMed

Zivin, Kara; Eisenberg, Daniel; Gollust, Sarah E; Golberstein, Ezra

2009-10-01

Cross-sectional studies indicate a high prevalence of mental health problems among college students, but there are fewer longitudinal data on these problems and related help-seeking behavior. We conducted a baseline web-based survey of students attending a large public university in fall 2005 and a two-year follow-up survey in fall 2007. We used brief screening instruments to measure symptoms of mental disorders (anxiety, depression, eating disorders), as well as self-injury and suicidal ideation. We estimated the persistence of these mental health problems between the two time points, and determined to what extent students with mental health problems perceived a need for or used mental health services (medication or therapy). We conducted logistic regression analyses examining how baseline predictors were associated with mental health and help-seeking two years later. Over half of students suffered from at least one mental health problem at baseline or follow-up. Among students with at least one mental health problem at baseline, 60% had at least one mental health problem two years later. Among students with a mental health problem at both time points, fewer than half received treatment between those time points. Mental health problems are based on self-report to brief screens, and the sample is from a single university. These findings indicate that mental disorders are prevalent and persistent in a student population. While the majority of students with probable disorders are aware of the need for treatment, most of these students do not receive treatment, even over a two-year period.

Modeling the environmental growth of Pseudogymnoascus destructans and its impact on the white-nose syndrome epidemic.

PubMed

Reynolds, Hannah T; Ingersoll, Tom; Barton, Hazel A

2015-04-01

White-nose syndrome (WNS) has had a devastating effect on North American bat populations. The causal agent of WNS is the fungal pathogen, Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd), which has been shown to persist in caves after the eradication of host populations. As nonpathogenic Pseudogymnoascus spp. display saprophytic growth and are among the most commonly isolated fungi from caves, we examined whether Pd could grow in cave sediments and the contribution such growth could have to WNS disease progression. We inoculated a range of diverse cave sediments and demonstrated the growth of Pd in all sediments tested. These data indicate that environmental growth of Pd could lead to the accumulation of spores above the estimated infection threshold for WNS, allowing environment-to-bat infection. The obtained growth parameters were then used in a susceptible-infected-susceptible mathematic model to determine the possible contribution of environmental Pd growth to WNS disease progression in a colony of little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus). This model suggests that the environmental growth of Pd would increase WNS infection rates, particularly in colonies experiencing longer hibernation periods or in hibernacula with high levels of organic detritus. The model also suggests that once introduced, environmental Pd growth would allow the persistence of this pathogen within infected hibernacula for decades, greatly compromising the success of bat reintroduction strategies. Together these data suggest that Pd is not reliant on its host for survival and is capable of environmental growth and amplification that could contribute to the rapid progression and long-term persistence of WNS in the hibernacula of threatened North American bats.

Espeletia praesidentis, a new species of Espeletiinae (Millerieae, Asteraceae) from northeastern Colombia

PubMed Central

Diazgranados, Mauricio; Sánchez, Luis Roberto

2017-01-01

Abstract A new species of Espeletia from the Páramo de Presidente in northeastern Colombia is described. The species is named Espeletia praesidentis after the name of the páramo, and it is dedicated to the President Juan Manuel Santos, for his persistent efforts in working for peace for Colombia. The new species is closely related to Espeletia dugandii, but differs in the shape and colour of the leaves and arrangements of the capitulescences. A large population was found, but its total extension is yet to be determine. PMID:28228682

A common mechanism involving the TORC1 pathway can lead to amphotericin B-persistence in biofilm and planktonic Saccharomyces cerevisiae populations.

PubMed

Bojsen, Rasmus; Regenberg, Birgitte; Gresham, David; Folkesson, Anders

2016-02-23

Fungal infections are an increasing clinical problem. Decreased treatment effectiveness is associated with biofilm formation and drug recalcitrance is thought to be biofilm specific. However, no systematic investigations have tested whether resistance mechanisms are shared between biofilm and planktonic populations. We performed multiplexed barcode sequencing (Bar-seq) screening of a pooled collection of gene-deletion mutants cultivated as biofilm and planktonic cells. Screening for resistance to the ergosterol-targeting fungicide amphotericin B (AmB) revealed that the two growth modes had significant overlap in AmB-persistent mutants. Mutants defective in sterol metabolism, ribosome biosynthesis, and the TORC1 and Ras pathways showed increased persistence when treated with AmB. The ras1, ras2 and tor1 mutants had a high-persister phenotype similar to wild-type biofilm and planktonic cells exposed to the TORC1 pathway inhibitor rapamycin. Inhibition of TORC1 with rapamycin also increased the proportion of persisters in Candida albicans and Candida glabrata. We propose that decreased TORC1-mediated induction of ribosome biosynthesis via Ras can lead to formation of AmB-persister cells regardless of whether the cells are in planktonic or biofilm growth mode. Identification of common pathways leading to growth mode-independent persister formation is important for developing novel strategies for treating fungal infections.

Population status and population genetics of northern leopard frogs in Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Theimer, Tad C.; Drost, Charles A.; O'Donnell, Ryan P.; Mock, Karen E.

2011-01-01

Increasing isolation of populations by habitat fragmentation threatens the persistence of many species, both from stochastic loss of small isolated populations, and from inbreeding effects in populations that have become genetically isolated. In the southwestern United States, amphibian habitat is naturally patchy in occurrence because of the prevailing aridity of the region. Streams, rivers, and other wetlands are important both as habitat and as corridors that connect populations. However, populations of some species have become more fragmented and isolated by habitat degradation and loss. Northern leopard frogs (Rana pipiens) have experienced serious declines in the Southwest. We conducted an extensive survey across the known range of northern leopard frogs in Arizona to determine the current distribution and abundance of the species. From a range that once spanned much of the northern and central part of the State, northern leopard frogs have been reduced to three or four widely separated populations, near Lyman Lake in east-central Arizona, in the Stoneman Lake area south of Flagstaff, along Truxton Wash near Peach Springs, and a population of uncertain extent on Navajo Nation lands. The Lyman Lake and Truxton Wash populations are small and extremely isolated. The Stoneman Lake population, however, is an extensive metapopulation spread across several stream drainages, including numerous ponds, wetlands, and artificial tanks. This is the only population in Arizona that is increasing in extent and numbers, but there is concern about the apparent introduction of nonnative genetic stock from eastern North America into this area. We analyzed genetic diversity within and genetic divergence among populations of northern leopard frogs, across both extant and recently extirpated populations in Arizona. We also analyzed mitochondrial DNA to place these populations into a larger phylogenetic framework and to determine whether any populations contained genetic material not native to the region. We found a high level of genetic divergence among the population centers (Lyman Lake, Stoneman Lake, Truxton Wash), and low genetic diversity in the small populations at Lyman Lake and Truxton. The extensive population in the Stoneman Lake area had high genetic diversity and relatively high gene flow among ponds and tanks across the entire extent of the area. However, this population also contained a mitochondrial haplotype from northern leopard frogs from the northeastern United States or southeastern Canada, probably representing the introduction of released pets or laboratory animals. These eastern frogs were extensively distributed through this population, and probably contributed to its high genetic diversity. Genetic diversity in the outlying populations such as Truxton Wash, East Buckskin Tank, and Hess Tank was low and showed signs of recent bottlenecks. However, supplementing genetic diversity in these native populations with artificial gene flow from the Stoneman Lake area may only be advisable in extreme situations for which there are no other alternatives. Until the nature and effects of genetic mixing of eastern and western genetic stocks of northern leopard frogs are better understood, the long-term persistence of the species in the Southwest may be best served by retaining as much genetic integrity of remaining native populations as possible.

Incorporating evolutionary processes into population viability models.

PubMed

Pierson, Jennifer C; Beissinger, Steven R; Bragg, Jason G; Coates, David J; Oostermeijer, J Gerard B; Sunnucks, Paul; Schumaker, Nathan H; Trotter, Meredith V; Young, Andrew G

2015-06-01

We examined how ecological and evolutionary (eco-evo) processes in population dynamics could be better integrated into population viability analysis (PVA). Complementary advances in computation and population genomics can be combined into an eco-evo PVA to offer powerful new approaches to understand the influence of evolutionary processes on population persistence. We developed the mechanistic basis of an eco-evo PVA using individual-based models with individual-level genotype tracking and dynamic genotype-phenotype mapping to model emergent population-level effects, such as local adaptation and genetic rescue. We then outline how genomics can allow or improve parameter estimation for PVA models by providing genotypic information at large numbers of loci for neutral and functional genome regions. As climate change and other threatening processes increase in rate and scale, eco-evo PVAs will become essential research tools to evaluate the effects of adaptive potential, evolutionary rescue, and locally adapted traits on persistence. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

The role of n terminal - probrain natriuretic peptide in the diagnosis of hemodynamic persistent asrteriosus ductus in premature neonates patient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dasraf, D.; Djer, M. M.; Advani, N.

2017-08-01

Persistent ductus arteriosus is one of the most frequent congenital heart diseases found in infants, mainly in preterms. Echocardiography is the gold standard for the diagnosis of hemodynamically significant patent ductus arteriosus (hs-PDA) in preterm neonates. A few studies have suggested that the use of a simple blood assay to detect N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) may be useful in determining the diagnosis and management of hs-PDA. No such studies have been conducted in Indonesia, although the assay kit and characteristics of the patient (gestational age and chronological age) influence the accuracy of NT-proBNP levels in determining hs-PDA. The aim of this study was to determine the association between the NT-proBNP level and the prevalence of hs-PDA in an Indonesian patient population. A cross-sectional study was conducted at Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital. PDA was determined using echocardiography in 49 preterm neonates (gestational age <37 weeks and birthweight <2000 g). Subsequently, these patients were divided into three groups: non-PDA, non-hsPDA, and hs-PDA. The blood NT-proBNP level was then determined in the non-hsPDA and hs-PDA groups, and between-group differences were compared. Among the 49 neonates, 33 patients had PDA, and 16 of these had hs-PDA. The results revealed a significant association between the NT-proBNP level and hs-PDA (p < 0.001).

Network, cellular, and molecular mechanisms underlying long-term memory formation.

PubMed

Carasatorre, Mariana; Ramírez-Amaya, Víctor

2013-01-01

The neural network stores information through activity-dependent synaptic plasticity that occurs in populations of neurons. Persistent forms of synaptic plasticity may account for long-term memory storage, and the most salient forms are the changes in the structure of synapses. The theory proposes that encoding should use a sparse code and evidence suggests that this can be achieved through offline reactivation or by sparse initial recruitment of the network units. This idea implies that in some cases the neurons that underwent structural synaptic plasticity might be a subpopulation of those originally recruited; However, it is not yet clear whether all the neurons recruited during acquisition are the ones that underwent persistent forms of synaptic plasticity and responsible for memory retrieval. To determine which neural units underlie long-term memory storage, we need to characterize which are the persistent forms of synaptic plasticity occurring in these neural ensembles and the best hints so far are the molecular signals underlying structural modifications of the synapses. Structural synaptic plasticity can be achieved by the activity of various signal transduction pathways, including the NMDA-CaMKII and ACh-MAPK. These pathways converge with the Rho family of GTPases and the consequent ERK 1/2 activation, which regulates multiple cellular functions such as protein translation, protein trafficking, and gene transcription. The most detailed explanation may come from models that allow us to determine the contribution of each piece of this fascinating puzzle that is the neuron and the neural network.

Gender difference in walleye PCB concentrations persists following remedial dredging

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madenjian, Charles P.; Jude, David J.; Rediske, Richard R.; O'Keefe, James P.; Noguchi, George E.

2009-01-01

Eleven male walleyes (Sander vitreus) and 10 female walleyes from the Saginaw Bay (Lake Huron) population were caught during the spawning run at Dow Dam (Midland, Michigan) in the Tittabawassee River during April 1996, and individual whole-fish polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) determinations were made. Total PCB concentrations averaged 7.95 and 3.17??mg/kg for males and females, respectively. As part of the Natural Resource Damage Assessment remediation process, contaminated sediments from the Saginaw River, the main tributary to Saginaw Bay, were removed during 2000 and 2001. Total PCB concentrations of 10 male and 10 female walleyes caught at Dow Dam during April 2007 averaged 1.58 and 0.55??mg/kg, respectively. Thus, dredging of the Saginaw River appeared to be effective in reducing PCB concentrations of Saginaw Bay adult walleyes, as both males and females decreased in PCB concentration by more than 80% between 1996 and 2007. However, the ratio of male PCB concentration to female PCB concentration did not decline between 1996 and 2007. This persistent gender difference in PCB concentrations was apparently due to a gender difference in habitat utilization coupled with a persistent spatial gradient in prey fish PCB concentrations from the Saginaw River to Lake Huron.

The evolution of resistance to two-toxin pyramid transgenic crops.

PubMed

Ives, Anthony R; Glaum, Paul R; Ziebarth, Nicolas L; Andow, David A

2011-03-01

Pyramid transgenic crops that express two Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) toxins hold great potential for reducing insect damage and slowing the evolution of resistance to the toxins. Here, we analyzed a suite of models for pyramid Bt crops to illustrate factors that should be considered when implementing the high dose-refuge strategy for resistance management; this strategy involves the high expression of toxins in Bt plants and use of non-Bt plants as refuges. Although resistance evolution to pyramid Bt varieties should in general be slower, resistance to pyramid Bt varieties is nonetheless driven by the same evolutionary processes as single Bt-toxin varieties. The main advantage of pyramid varieties is the low survival of insects heterozygous for resistance alleles. We show that there are two modes of resistance evolution. When populations of purely susceptible insects persist, leading to density dependence, the speed of resistance evolution changes slowly with the proportion of refuges. However, once the proportion of non-Bt plants crosses the threshold below which a susceptible population cannot persist, the speed of resistance evolution increases rapidly. This suggests that adaptive management be used to guarantee persistence of susceptible populations. We compared the use of seed mixtures in which Bt and non-Bt plants are sown in the same fields to the use of spatial refuges. As found for single Bt varieties, seed mixtures can speed resistance evolution if larvae move among plants. Devising optimal management plans for deploying spatial refuges is difficult because they depend on crop rotation patterns, whether males or females have limited dispersal, and other characteristics. Nonetheless, the effects of spatial refuges on resistance evolution can be understood by considering the three mechanisms determining the rate of resistance evolution: the force of selection (the proportion of insects killed by Bt), assortative mating (deviations of the proportion of heterozygotes from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium at the total population level), and male mating success (when males carrying resistance alleles find fewer mates). Of these three, assortative mating is often the least important, even though this mechanism is the most frequently cited explanation for the efficacy of the high dose-refuge strategy.

Developmental Profiles of Eczema, Wheeze, and Rhinitis: Two Population-Based Birth Cohort Studies

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The term “atopic march” has been used to imply a natural progression of a cascade of symptoms from eczema to asthma and rhinitis through childhood. We hypothesize that this expression does not adequately describe the natural history of eczema, wheeze, and rhinitis during childhood. We propose that this paradigm arose from cross-sectional analyses of longitudinal studies, and may reflect a population pattern that may not predominate at the individual level. Methods and Findings Data from 9,801 children in two population-based birth cohorts were used to determine individual profiles of eczema, wheeze, and rhinitis and whether the manifestations of these symptoms followed an atopic march pattern. Children were assessed at ages 1, 3, 5, 8, and 11 y. We used Bayesian machine learning methods to identify distinct latent classes based on individual profiles of eczema, wheeze, and rhinitis. This approach allowed us to identify groups of children with similar patterns of eczema, wheeze, and rhinitis over time. Using a latent disease profile model, the data were best described by eight latent classes: no disease (51.3%), atopic march (3.1%), persistent eczema and wheeze (2.7%), persistent eczema with later-onset rhinitis (4.7%), persistent wheeze with later-onset rhinitis (5.7%), transient wheeze (7.7%), eczema only (15.3%), and rhinitis only (9.6%). When latent variable modelling was carried out separately for the two cohorts, similar results were obtained. Highly concordant patterns of sensitisation were associated with different profiles of eczema, rhinitis, and wheeze. The main limitation of this study was the difference in wording of the questions used to ascertain the presence of eczema, wheeze, and rhinitis in the two cohorts. Conclusions The developmental profiles of eczema, wheeze, and rhinitis are heterogeneous; only a small proportion of children (∼7% of those with symptoms) follow trajectory profiles resembling the atopic march. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:25335105

Urbanization and biological invasion shape animal personalities.

PubMed

Lapiedra, Oriol; Chejanovski, Zachary; Kolbe, Jason J

2017-02-01

Novel selective pressures derived from human activities challenge the persistence of animal populations worldwide. Behavior is expected to be a major factor driving animals' responses to global change because it largely determines how animals interact with the environment. However, the role of individual variation in behavior to facilitate the persistence of animals in changing environments remains poorly understood. Here, we adopted an animal personality approach to investigate whether different behavioral traits allow animals to deal with two major components of global change: urbanization and biological invasions. By studying six populations of Anolis sagrei lizards, we found for the first time that anoles vary consistently in their behavior across different times and contexts. Importantly, these animal personalities were consistent in the wild and in captivity. We investigated whether behavioral traits are pulled in different directions by different components of global change. On the one hand, we found that lizards from urban areas differ from nearby forest lizards in that they were more tolerant of humans, less aggressive, bolder after a simulated predator attack, and they spent more time exploring new environments. Several of these risk-taking behaviors constituted a behavioral syndrome that significantly differed between urban and forest populations. On the other hand, the behavior of urban A. sagrei coexisting with the invasive predatory lizard Leiocephalus carinatus was associated with dramatic changes in their foraging niche. Overall, we provide evidence that differences in animal personalities facilitate the persistence of animals under novel selective regimes by producing adaptive behaviors relevant to their ecology such as predator avoidance. Our results suggest that natural selection can favor certain behaviors over others when animals are confronted with different ecological challenges posed by global change. Therefore, we underscore the need to incorporate behavioral ecology into the study of how animals adaptively respond to human-induced environmental changes. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An assessment of firework particle persistence on the hands and related police force practices in relation to GSR evidence.

PubMed

Grima, Matthew; Hanson, Robert; Tidy, Helen

2014-06-01

In a previous study by Grima et al. Sci. Justice 52 (1) (2012) 49, it was shown that background particles can aid in the exclusion of firework particles which are indistinguishable from GSR. Issues relating to the persistence of such particle populations were presented. The scope of this project was to examine persistence on the hands in the context of possible post-display scene contamination and how this can affect GSR evidence, especially in light of possible GSR/firework mixtures. Persistence was investigated by recovering firework residues eight hours post-display following contact of the hands with bedding. In addition, particle profiling was carried out using SEM-EDX. Firework particle populations exhibited strong persistence in all displays, with not less than 667 particles persisting in each scenario. This factor challenges GSR evidence, especially if personnel stationed at display sites enter scenes of crime or come into contact with suspects after a display. A survey of UK police force practices following firework displays showed that authorities are not aware of the impact particle transfer may have on GSR evidence. Recommendations for the implementation of basic hygiene practices for particle transfer control have also been made. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Millennium Development Goal Four and Child Health Inequities in Indonesia: A Systematic Review of the Literature

PubMed Central

Schröders, Julia; Wall, Stig; Kusnanto, Hari; Ng, Nawi

2015-01-01

Introduction Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 calls for reducing mortality of children under-five years by two-thirds by 2015. Indonesia is on track to officially meet the MDG 4 targets by 2015 but progress has been far from universal. It has been argued that national level statistics, on which MDG 4 relies, obscure persistent health inequities within the country. Particularly inequities in child health are a major global public health challenge both for achieving MDG 4 in 2015 and beyond. This review aims to map out the situation of MDG 4 with respect to disadvantaged populations in Indonesia applying the Social Determinants of Health (SDH) framework. The specific objectives are to answer: Who are the disadvantaged populations? Where do they live? And why and how is the inequitable distribution of health explained in terms of the SDH framework? Methods and Findings We retrieved studies through a systematic review of peer-reviewed and gray literature published in 1995-2014. The PRISMA-Equity 2012 statement was adapted to guide the methods of this review. The dependent variables were MDG 4-related indicators; the independent variable “disadvantaged populations” was defined by different categories of social differentiation using PROGRESS. Included texts were analyzed following the guidelines for deductive content analysis operationalized on the basis of the SDH framework. We identified 83 studies establishing evidence on more than 40 different determinants hindering an equitable distribution of child health in Indonesia. The most prominent determinants arise from the shortcomings within the rural health care system, the repercussions of food poverty coupled with low health literacy among parents, the impact of low household decision-making power of mothers, and the consequences of high persistent use of traditional birth attendants among ethnic minorities. Conclusion This review calls for enhanced understanding of the determinants and pathways that create, detain, and overcome inequities in child health in resource constraint settings like Indonesia and the promotion of actionable health policy recommendations and tailored investments. PMID:25942491

Projecting the Demand for Dental Care in 2040.

PubMed

Manski, Richard J; Meyerhoefer, Chad D

2017-08-01

The purpose of this study was to provide a forward-thinking assessment of the underlying factors likely to impact trends in dental care demand and the need for dental providers in 2020, 2025, and beyond. Dental workforce trends and their likely impact on the need for dentists are a function of predicted dental care demand, which will in turn be determined by the size and characteristics of our population size, economic outlook, the state of public and private dental care insurance, trends in dental care delivery, professionally determined dental care need, and population health beliefs. Projecting rates of dental care utilization far into the future is difficult because projections must be made using historical data, and established trends may not persist if there is structural change in the future. Nonetheless, when structural change occurs, it does not typically affect all aspects of the economy, so there is value in describing the likely future impact of current trends. This article was written as part of the project "Advancing Dental Education in the 21 st Century."

More rapid climate change promotes evolutionary rescue through selection for increased dispersal distance.

PubMed

Boeye, Jeroen; Travis, Justin M J; Stoks, Robby; Bonte, Dries

2013-02-01

Species can either adapt to new conditions induced by climate change or shift their range in an attempt to track optimal environmental conditions. During current range shifts, species are simultaneously confronted with a second major anthropogenic disturbance, landscape fragmentation. Using individual-based models with a shifting climate window, we examine the effect of different rates of climate change on the evolution of dispersal distances through changes in the genetically determined dispersal kernel. Our results demonstrate that the rate of climate change is positively correlated to the evolved dispersal distances although too fast climate change causes the population to crash. When faced with realistic rates of climate change, greater dispersal distances evolve than those required for the population to keep track of the climate, thereby maximizing population size. Importantly, the greater dispersal distances that evolve when climate change is more rapid, induce evolutionary rescue by facilitating the population in crossing large gaps in the landscape. This could ensure population persistence in case of range shifting in fragmented landscapes. Furthermore, we highlight problems in using invasion speed as a proxy for potential range shifting abilities under climate change.

A high-resolution genetic signature of demographic and spatial expansion in epizootic rabies virus

PubMed Central

Biek, Roman; Henderson, J. Caroline; Waller, Lance A.; Rupprecht, Charles E.; Real, Leslie A.

2007-01-01

Emerging pathogens potentially undergo rapid evolution while expanding in population size and geographic range during the course of invasion, yet it is generally difficult to demonstrate how these processes interact. Our analysis of a 30-yr data set covering a large-scale rabies virus outbreak among North American raccoons reveals the long lasting effect of the initial infection wave in determining how viral populations are genetically structured in space. We further find that coalescent-based estimates derived from the genetic data yielded an amazingly accurate reconstruction of the known spatial and demographic dynamics of the virus over time. Our study demonstrates the combined evolutionary and population dynamic processes characterizing the spread of pathogen after its introduction into a fully susceptible host population. Furthermore, the results provide important insights regarding the spatial scale of rabies persistence and validate the use of coalescent approaches for uncovering even relatively complex population histories. Such approaches will be of increasing relevance for understanding the epidemiology of emerging zoonotic diseases in a landscape context. PMID:17470818

Prevalence and long-term predictors of persistent chronic widespread pain in the general population in an 11-year prospective study: the HUNT study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Chronic widespread pain (CWP) is common and associated with prominent negative consequences. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of persistent CWP in an 11-year prospective cohort study in the general population, and to examine anxiety, depression, alcohol use, poor sleep, body mass index (BMI) and chronic disease, along with demographic, lifestyle and other health-related variables as possible predictors for the assumed CWP persistence. Methods CWP was defined as having pain at three or more predefined sites (involving the trunk and upper and lower limbs) for at least three months in the last year. We used a Norwegian general population cohort of 28,367 individuals who responded to both the second (1995–1997) and the third (2006–2008) waves of the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT2 and HUNT3, respectively). Data were analysed with logistic regression models. Results CWP prevalence in HUNT2 was 17%. Of those reporting CWP in HUNT2, 53% still reported CWP at follow-up in HUNT3. Adjusted analyses revealed that depression and alcohol consumption were not substantially associated with the 11-year prospective CWP outcome. Poor sleep, obesity and chronic disease predicted persistent CWP, and being male and/or 60 years or older was protective. Conclusions This cohort study revealed that nearly half of the participants with baseline CWP resolved from CWP 11 years later. Among those whose CWP did not resolve, obesity, sleeping problems and chronic disease predicted CWP persistence, while aging and male sex was protective. Anxiety, mixed anxiety and depression, former smoking, and overweight were weakly associated, while depression, moderate exercise, and alcohol use were not associated with persistent CWP. PMID:24951013

Soil-borne reservoirs of antibiotic-resistant bacteria are established following therapeutic treatment of dairy calves.

PubMed

Liu, Jinxin; Zhao, Zhe; Orfe, Lisa; Subbiah, Murugan; Call, Douglas R

2016-02-01

We determined if antibiotics residues that are excreted from treated animals can contribute to persistence of resistant bacteria in agricultural environments. Administration of ceftiofur, a third-generation cephalosporin, resulted in a ∼ 3 log increase in ceftiofur-resistant Escherichia coli found in the faeces and pen soils by day 10 (P = 0.005). This resistant population quickly subsided in faeces, but was sustained in the pen soil (∼ 4.5 log bacteria g(-1)) throughout the trial (1 month). Florfenicol treatment resulted in a similar pattern although the loss of florfenicol-resistant E. coli was slower for faeces and remained stable at ∼ 6 log bacteria g(-1) in the soil. Calves were treated in pens where eGFP-labelled E. coli were present in the bedding (∼ 2 log g(-1)) resulting in amplification of the eGFP E. coli population ∼ 2.1 log more than eGFP E. coli populations in pens with untreated calves (day 4; P < 0.005). Excreted residues accounted for > 10-fold greater contribution to the bedding reservoir compared with shedding of resistant bacteria in faeces. Treatment with therapeutic doses of ceftiofur or florfenicol resulted in 2-3 log g(-1) more bacteria than the estimated ID50 (2.83 CFU g(-1)), consistent with a soil-borne reservoir emerging after antibiotic treatment that can contribute to the long-term persistence of antibiotic resistance in animal agriculture. © 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Extraordinary Sex Ratios: Cultural Effects on Ecological Consequences

PubMed Central

Molnár, Ferenc; Caraco, Thomas; Korniss, Gyorgy

2012-01-01

We model sex-structured population dynamics to analyze pairwise competition between groups differing both genetically and culturally. A sex-ratio allele is expressed in the heterogametic sex only, so that assumptions of Fisher’s analysis do not apply. Sex-ratio evolution drives cultural evolution of a group-associated trait governing mortality in the homogametic sex. The two-sex dynamics under resource limitation induces a strong Allee effect that depends on both sex ratio and cultural trait values. We describe the resulting threshold, separating extinction from positive growth, as a function of female and male densities. When initial conditions avoid extinction due to the Allee effect, different sex ratios cannot coexist; in our model, greater female allocation always invades and excludes a lesser allocation. But the culturally transmitted trait interacts with the sex ratio to determine the ecological consequences of successful invasion. The invading female allocation may permit population persistence at self-regulated equilibrium. For this case, the resident culture may be excluded, or may coexist with the invader culture. That is, a single sex-ratio allele in females and a cultural dimorphism in male mortality can persist; a low-mortality resident trait is maintained by father-to-son cultural transmission. Otherwise, the successfully invading female allocation excludes the resident allele and culture and then drives the population to extinction via a shortage of males. Finally, we show that the results obtained under homogeneous mixing hold, with caveats, in a spatially explicit model with local mating and diffusive dispersal in both sexes. PMID:22952669

Extraordinary sex ratios: cultural effects on ecological consequences.

PubMed

Molnár, Ferenc; Caraco, Thomas; Korniss, Gyorgy

2012-01-01

We model sex-structured population dynamics to analyze pairwise competition between groups differing both genetically and culturally. A sex-ratio allele is expressed in the heterogametic sex only, so that assumptions of Fisher's analysis do not apply. Sex-ratio evolution drives cultural evolution of a group-associated trait governing mortality in the homogametic sex. The two-sex dynamics under resource limitation induces a strong Allee effect that depends on both sex ratio and cultural trait values. We describe the resulting threshold, separating extinction from positive growth, as a function of female and male densities. When initial conditions avoid extinction due to the Allee effect, different sex ratios cannot coexist; in our model, greater female allocation always invades and excludes a lesser allocation. But the culturally transmitted trait interacts with the sex ratio to determine the ecological consequences of successful invasion. The invading female allocation may permit population persistence at self-regulated equilibrium. For this case, the resident culture may be excluded, or may coexist with the invader culture. That is, a single sex-ratio allele in females and a cultural dimorphism in male mortality can persist; a low-mortality resident trait is maintained by father-to-son cultural transmission. Otherwise, the successfully invading female allocation excludes the resident allele and culture and then drives the population to extinction via a shortage of males. Finally, we show that the results obtained under homogeneous mixing hold, with caveats, in a spatially explicit model with local mating and diffusive dispersal in both sexes.

Metapopulation Dynamics Enable Persistence of Influenza A, Including A/H5N1, in Poultry

PubMed Central

Hosseini, Parviez Rana; Fuller, Trevon; Harrigan, Ryan; Zhao, Delong; Arriola, Carmen Sofia; Gonzalez, Armandoe; Miller, Matthew Joshua; Xiao, Xiangming; Smith, Tom B.; Jones, Jamie Holland; Daszak, Peter

2013-01-01

Highly pathogenic influenza A/H5N1 has persistently but sporadically caused human illness and death since 1997. Yet it is still unclear how this pathogen is able to persist globally. While wild birds seem to be a genetic reservoir for influenza A, they do not seem to be the main source of human illness. Here, we highlight the role that domestic poultry may play in maintaining A/H5N1 globally, using theoretical models of spatial population structure in poultry populations. We find that a metapopulation of moderately sized poultry flocks can sustain the pathogen in a finite poultry population for over two years. Our results suggest that it is possible that moderately intensive backyard farms could sustain the pathogen indefinitely in real systems. This fits a pattern that has been observed from many empirical systems. Rather than just employing standard culling procedures to control the disease, our model suggests ways that poultry production systems may be modified. PMID:24312455

Specific non-monotonous interactions increase persistence of ecological networks.

PubMed

Yan, Chuan; Zhang, Zhibin

2014-03-22

The relationship between stability and biodiversity has long been debated in ecology due to opposing empirical observations and theoretical predictions. Species interaction strength is often assumed to be monotonically related to population density, but the effects on stability of ecological networks of non-monotonous interactions that change signs have not been investigated previously. We demonstrate that for four kinds of non-monotonous interactions, shifting signs to negative or neutral interactions at high population density increases persistence (a measure of stability) of ecological networks, while for the other two kinds of non-monotonous interactions shifting signs to positive interactions at high population density decreases persistence of networks. Our results reveal a novel mechanism of network stabilization caused by specific non-monotonous interaction types through either increasing stable equilibrium points or reducing unstable equilibrium points (or both). These specific non-monotonous interactions may be important in maintaining stable and complex ecological networks, as well as other networks such as genes, neurons, the internet and human societies.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of fucoid populations (Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus): a comparison between central and range edge populations.

PubMed

Araújo, Rita M; Serrão, Ester A; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel; Åberg, Per

2014-01-01

Persistence of populations at range edges relies on local population dynamics and fitness, in the case of geographically isolated populations of species with low dispersal potential. Focusing on spatial variations in demography helps to predict the long-term capability for persistence of populations across the geographical range of species' distribution. The demography of two ecological and phylogenetically close macroalgal species with different life history characteristics was investigated by using stochastic, stage-based matrix models. Populations of Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus were sampled for up to 4 years at central locations in France and at their southern range limits in Portugal. The stochastic population growth rate (λ(s)) of A. nodosum was lower and more variable in central than in southern sites whilst for F. serratus this trend was reversed with λ(s) much lower and more variable in southern than in central populations. Individuals were larger in central than in southern populations for both species, which was reflected in the lower transition probabilities of individuals to larger size classes and higher probability of shrinkage in the southern populations. In both central and southern populations elasticity analysis (proportional sensitivity) of population growth rate showed that fertility elements had a small contribution to λ(s) that was more sensitive to changes in matrix transitions corresponding to survival. The highest elasticities were found for loop transitions in A. nodosum and for growth to larger size classes in F. serratus. Sensitivity analysis showed high selective pressure on individual growth for both species at both locations. The results of this study highlight the deterministic role of species-specific life-history traits in population demography across the geographical range of species. Additionally, this study demonstrates that individuals' life-transitions differ in vulnerability to environmental variability and shows the importance of vegetative compared to reproductive stages for the long-term persistence of populations.

The role of density-dependent individual growth in the persistence of freshwater salmonid populations.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone; Crivelli, Alain J; Jesensek, Dusan; De Leo, Giulio A

2008-06-01

Theoretical and empirical models of populations dynamics have paid little attention to the implications of density-dependent individual growth on the persistence and regulation of small freshwater salmonid populations. We have therefore designed a study aimed at testing our hypothesis that density-dependent individual growth is a process that enhances population recovery and reduces extinction risk in salmonid populations in a variable environment subject to disturbance events. This hypothesis was tested in two newly introduced marble trout (Salmo marmoratus) populations living in Slovenian streams (Zakojska and Gorska) subject to severe autumn floods. We developed a discrete-time stochastic individual-based model of population dynamics for each population with demographic parameters and compensatory responses tightly calibrated on data from individually tagged marble trout. The occurrence of severe flood events causing population collapses was explicitly accounted for in the model. We used the model in a population viability analysis setting to estimate the quasi-extinction risk and demographic indexes of the two marble trout populations when individual growth was density-dependent. We ran a set of simulations in which the effect of floods on population abundance was explicitly accounted for and another set of simulations in which flood events were not included in the model. These simulation results were compared with those of scenarios in which individual growth was modelled with density-independent Von Bertalanffy growth curves. Our results show how density-dependent individual growth may confer remarkable resilience to marble trout populations in case of major flood events. The resilience to flood events shown by the simulation results can be explained by the increase in size-dependent fecundity as a consequence of the drop in population size after a severe flood, which allows the population to quickly recover to the pre-event conditions. Our results suggest that density-dependent individual growth plays a potentially powerful role in the persistence of freshwater salmonids living in streams subject to recurrent yet unpredictable flood events.

Effects of Clonal Reproduction on Evolutionary Lag and Evolutionary Rescue.

PubMed

Orive, Maria E; Barfield, Michael; Fernandez, Carlos; Holt, Robert D

2017-10-01

Evolutionary lag-the difference between mean and optimal phenotype in the current environment-is of keen interest in light of rapid environmental change. Many ecologically important organisms have life histories that include stage structure and both sexual and clonal reproduction, yet how stage structure and clonality interplay to govern a population's rate of evolution and evolutionary lag is unknown. Effects of clonal reproduction on mean phenotype partition into two portions: one that is phenotype dependent, and another that is genotype dependent. This partitioning is governed by the association between the nonadditive genetic plus random environmental component of phenotype of clonal offspring and their parents. While clonality slows phenotypic evolution toward an optimum, it can dramatically increase population survival after a sudden step change in optimal phenotype. Increased adult survival slows phenotypic evolution but facilitates population survival after a step change; this positive effect can, however, be lost given survival-fecundity trade-offs. Simulations indicate that the benefits of increased clonality under environmental change greatly depend on the nature of that change: increasing population persistence under a step change while decreasing population persistence under a continuous linear change requiring de novo variation. The impact of clonality on the probability of persistence for species in a changing world is thus inexorably linked to the temporal texture of the change they experience.

Persistent Insomnia: the Role of Objective Short Sleep Duration and Mental Health

PubMed Central

Vgontzas, Alexandros N.; Fernandez-Mendoza, Julio; Bixler, Edward O.; Singareddy, Ravi; Shaffer, Michele L.; Calhoun, Susan L.; Liao, Duanping; Basta, Maria; Chrousos, George P.

2012-01-01

Study Objectives: Few population-based, longitudinal studies have examined risk factors for persistent insomnia, and the results are inconsistent. Furthermore, none of these studies have examined the role of polysomnographic (PSG) variables such as sleep duration or sleep apnea on the persistence of insomnia. Design: Representative longitudinal study. Setting: Sleep laboratory. Participants: From a random, general population sample of 1741 individuals of the adult Penn State Cohort, 1395 were followed-up after 7.5 years. Measurements: Individuals underwent one-night PSG and full medical evaluation at baseline and a telephone interview at follow-up. PSG sleep duration was analyzed as a continuous variable and as a categorical variable: < 6 h sleep (short sleep duration) and ≥ 6 h sleep (longer sleep duration). Results: The rates of insomnia persistence, partial remission, and full remission were 44.0%, 30.0%, and 26.0%, respectively. Objective short sleep duration significantly increased the odds of persistent insomnia as compared to normal sleep (OR = 3.19) and to fully remitted insomnia (OR = 4.92). Mental health problems at baseline were strongly associated with persistent insomnia as compared to normal sleep (OR = 9.67) and to a lesser degree compared to fully remitted insomnia (OR = 3.68). Smoking, caffeine, and alcohol consumption and sleep apnea did not predict persistent insomnia. Conclusions: Objective short sleep duration and mental health problems are the strongest predictors of persistent insomnia. These data further support the validity and clinical utility of objective short sleep duration as a novel marker of the biological severity of insomnia. Citation: Vgontzas AN; Fernandez-Mendoza J; Bixler EO; Singareddy R; Shaffer ML; Calhoun SL; Liao D; Basta M; Chrousos GP. Persistent insomnia: the role of objective short sleep duration and mental health. SLEEP 2012;35(1):61-68. PMID:22215919

Stochastic predation events and population persistence in bighorn sheep

PubMed Central

Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Coulson, Tim; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Hogg, John T; Pelletier, Fanie

2006-01-01

Many studies have reported temporal changes in the relative importance of density-dependence and environmental stochasticity in affecting population growth rates, but they typically assume that the predominant factor limiting growth remains constant over long periods of time. Stochastic switches in limiting factors that persist for multiple time-steps have received little attention, but most wild populations may periodically experience such switches. Here, we consider the dynamics of three populations of individually marked bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) monitored for 24–28 years. Each population experienced one or two distinct cougar (Puma concolor) predation events leading to population declines. The onset and duration of predation events were stochastic and consistent with predation by specialist individuals. A realistic Markov chain model confirms that predation by specialist cougars can cause extinction of isolated populations. We suggest that such processes may be common. In such cases, predator–prey equilibria may only occur at large geographical and temporal scales, and are unlikely with increasing habitat fragmentation. PMID:16777749

Cryptic disease-induced mortality may cause host extinction in an apparently stable host-parasite system.

PubMed

Valenzuela-Sánchez, Andrés; Schmidt, Benedikt R; Uribe-Rivera, David E; Costas, Francisco; Cunningham, Andrew A; Soto-Azat, Claudio

2017-09-27

The decline of wildlife populations due to emerging infectious disease often shows a common pattern: the parasite invades a naive host population, producing epidemic disease and a population decline, sometimes with extirpation. Some susceptible host populations can survive the epidemic phase and persist with endemic parasitic infection. Understanding host-parasite dynamics leading to persistence of the system is imperative to adequately inform conservation practice. Here we combine field data, statistical and mathematical modelling to explore the dynamics of the apparently stable Rhinoderma darwinii - Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) system. Our results indicate that Bd-induced population extirpation may occur even in the absence of epidemics and where parasite prevalence is relatively low. These empirical findings are consistent with previous theoretical predictions showing that highly pathogenic parasites are able to regulate host populations even at extremely low prevalence, highlighting that disease threats should be investigated as a cause of population declines even in the absence of an overt increase in mortality. © 2017 The Author(s).

Persistent bacterial infections, antibiotic tolerance, and the oxidative stress response

PubMed Central

Grant, Sarah Schmidt; Hung, Deborah T.

2013-01-01

Certain bacterial pathogens are able to evade the host immune system and persist within the human host. The consequences of persistent bacterial infections potentially include increased morbidity and mortality from the infection itself as well as an increased risk of dissemination of disease. Eradication of persistent infections is difficult, often requiring prolonged or repeated courses of antibiotics. During persistent infections, a population or subpopulation of bacteria exists that is refractory to traditional antibiotics, possibly in a non-replicating or metabolically altered state. This review highlights the clinical significance of persistent infections and discusses different in vitro models used to investigate the altered physiology of bacteria during persistent infections. We specifically focus on recent work establishing increased protection against oxidative stress as a key element of the altered physiologic state across different in vitro models and pathogens. PMID:23563389

Population movement can sustain STI prevalence in remote Australian indigenous communities.

PubMed

Hui, Ben B; Gray, Richard T; Wilson, David P; Ward, James S; Smith, Anthony M A; Philip, David J; Law, Matthew G; Hocking, Jane S; Regan, David G

2013-04-25

For almost two decades, chlamydia and gonorrhoea diagnosis rates in remote Indigenous communities have been up to 30 times higher than for non-Indigenous Australians. The high levels of population movement known to occur between remote communities may contribute to these high rates. We developed an individual-based computer simulation model to study the relationship between population movement and the persistence of gonorrhoea and chlamydia transmission within hypothetical remote communities. Results from our model suggest that short-term population movement can facilitate gonorrhoea and chlamydia persistence in small populations. By fixing the number of short-term travellers in accordance with census data, we found that these STIs can persist if at least 20% of individuals in the population seek additional partners while away from home and if the time away from home is less than 21 days. Periodic variations in travel patterns can contribute to increased sustainable levels of infection. Expanding existing STI testing and treatment programs to cater for short-term travellers is shown to be ineffective due to their short duration of stay. Testing and treatment strategies tailored to movement patterns, such as encouraging travellers to seek testing and treatment upon return from travel, will likely be more effective. High population mobility is likely to contribute to the high levels of STIs observed in remote Indigenous communities of Australia. More detailed data on mobility patterns and sexual behaviour of travellers will be invaluable for designing and assessing STI control programs in highly mobile communities.

Is colour polymorphism advantageous to populations and species?

PubMed

Forsman, Anders

2016-06-01

I am writing in response to an article by Bolton, Rollins and Griffith (2015) entitled 'The danger within: the role of genetic, behavioural and ecological factors in population persistence of colour polymorphic species' that was recently published as an Opinion under the NEWS AND VIEWS section in Molecular Ecology. Bolton et al. (Molecular Ecology, 2015, 24, 2907) argue that colour polymorphism may reduce population fitness and increase extinction risk and emphasize that this is contrary to predictions put forward by Forsman et al. (Ecology, 89, 2008, 34) and Wennersten & Forsman (Biological Reviews 87, 2012, 756) that the existence of multiple colour morphs with co-adapted gene complexes and associated trait values may increase the ecological and evolutionary success of polymorphic populations and species. Bolton et al. (Molecular Ecology, 2015, 24, 2907) further state that there is no clear evidence from studies of 'true polymorphic species' that polymorphism promotes population persistence. In response, I (i) challenge their classifications of polymorphisms and revisit the traditional definitions recognizing the dynamic nature of polymorphisms, (ii) review empirical studies that have examined whether and how polymorphism is associated with extinction risk, (iii) discuss the roles of trait correlations between colour pattern and other phenotypic dimensions for population fitness and (iv) highlight that the causes and mechanisms that influence the composition and maintenance of polymorphisms are different from the consequences of the polymorphic condition and how it may impact on aspects of ecological success and long-term persistence of populations and species. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Population dynamics of interacting predatory mites, Phytoseiulus persimilis and Neoseiulus californicus, held on detached bean leaves.

PubMed

Walzer, A; Blümel, S; Schausberger, P

2001-01-01

The success of combined release of the predatory mites Phytoseiulus persimilis and Neoseiulus californicus in suppression of spider mites may be related to the effects of the interactions between the two predators on their population dynamics. We studied population growth and persistence of the specialist P persimilis and the generalist N. californicus reared singly versus reared in combination after simultaneous and successive predator introductions on detached bean leaf arenas with abundant prey, Tetranychus urticae. and with diminishing prey. When reared singly with abundant prey, either predator population persisted at high densities to the end of the experiment. In every predator combination system with abundant prey and various initial predator:predator ratios N. californicus displaced P persimilis. When held singly with diminishing prey, the population of P. persimilis grew initially faster than the population of N. californicus but both species reached similar population peaks. Irrespective whether reared singly or in combination. N. californicus persisted three to five times longer after prey depletion than did P. persimilis. Regarding the crucial interactions in the predator combination systems, we conclude that intraguild predation was a stronger force than food competition and finally resulted in the displacement of P. persimilis. Previous studies showed that intraguild predation between the specialist P. persimilis and the generalist N. californicus is strongly asymmetric favoring the generalist. We discuss the implications of potential interactions between P. persimilis and N. californicus to biological control of spider mites.

Presence/absence as a metric for monitoring vertebrate populations

Treesearch

Len Ruggiero; Dean Pearson

2000-01-01

Developing cost effective methods for monitoring vertebrate populations is a persistent problem in wildlife biology. Population demographic data is too costly and time intensive to acquire, so researchers have begun investigating presence/absence sampling as a means for monitoring wildlife populations. We examined three important assumptions regarding the probability...

Genome-Wide Association Studies of Drug-Resistance Determinants.

PubMed

Volkman, Sarah K; Herman, Jonathan; Lukens, Amanda K; Hartl, Daniel L

2017-03-01

Population genetic strategies that leverage association, selection, and linkage have identified drug-resistant loci. However, challenges and limitations persist in identifying drug-resistance loci in malaria. In this review we discuss the genetic basis of drug resistance and the use of genome-wide association studies, complemented by selection and linkage studies, to identify and understand mechanisms of drug resistance and response. We also discuss the implications of nongenetic mechanisms of drug resistance recently reported in the literature, and present models of the interplay between nongenetic and genetic processes that contribute to the emergence of drug resistance. Throughout, we examine artemisinin resistance as an example to emphasize challenges in identifying phenotypes suitable for population genetic studies as well as complications due to multiple-factor drug resistance. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

[Control of poliomyelitis and enterovirus infection in several areas of Russian Federation].

PubMed

Romanenkova, N I; Bichurina, M A; Rosaeva, N R

2011-01-01

Control of poliovirus circulation by study of material from patients with acute flaccid paralysis and contact individuals, from children of risk groups; molecular characteristics of isolated polioviruses; monitoring of circulation of polioviruses and nonpoliomyelitis enteroviruses in population and the environment. Isolation and study of polioviruses and nonpoliomyelitis enteroviruses from various sources was performed in accordance with WHO recommendations. Prolonged persistence and circulation of vaccine related strains of polioviruses in children is demonstrated. Enterovirus serotypes that circulate in the population and the environment more frequently are determined. CONCLUSION. Long term control of poliomyelitis and acute flaccid paralysis in combination with additional control variants in children from risk groups and objects of the environment allowed to obtain valuable data on poliovirus and nonpoliomyelitis enteroviruses circulation for the Program of eradication of poliomyelitis.

Effects of habitat fragmentation and disturbance on howler monkeys: a review.

PubMed

Arroyo-Rodríguez, Víctor; Dias, Pedro Américo D

2010-01-01

We examined the literature on the effects of habitat fragmentation and disturbance on howler monkeys (genus Alouatta) to (1) identify different threats that may affect howlers in fragmented landscapes; (2) review specific predictions developed in fragmentation theory and (3) identify the empirical evidence supporting these predictions. Although howlers are known for their ability to persist in both conserved and disturbed conditions, we found evidence that they are negatively affected by high levels of habitat loss, fragmentation and degradation. Patch size appears to be the main factor constraining populations in fragmented habitats, probably because patch size is positively related to food availability, and negatively related to anthropogenic pressures, physiological stress and parasite loads. Patch isolation is not a strong predictor of either patch occupancy or population size in howlers, a result that may be related to the ability of howlers to move among forest patches. Thus, we propose that it is probable that habitat loss has larger consistent negative effects on howler populations than habitat fragmentation per se. In general, food availability decreases with patch size, not only due to habitat loss, but also because the density of big trees, plant species richness and howlers' home range size are lower in smaller patches, where howlers' population densities are commonly higher. However, it is unclear which vegetation attributes have the biggest influence on howler populations. Similarly, our knowledge is still limited concerning the effects of postfragmentation threats (e.g. hunting and logging) on howlers living in forest patches, and how several endogenous threats (e.g. genetic diversity, physiological stress, and parasitism) affect the distribution, population structure and persistence of howlers. More long-term studies with comparable methods are necessary to quantify some of the patterns discussed in this review, and determine through meta-analyses whether there are significant inter-specific differences in species' responses to habitat loss and fragmentation. (c) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Inteins, introns, and homing endonucleases: recent revelations about the life cycle of parasitic genetic elements

PubMed Central

Gogarten, J Peter; Hilario, Elena

2006-01-01

Self splicing introns and inteins that rely on a homing endonuclease for propagation are parasitic genetic elements. Their life-cycle and evolutionary fate has been described through the homing cycle. According to this model the homing endonuclease is selected for function only during the spreading phase of the parasite. This phase ends when the parasitic element is fixed in the population. Upon fixation the homing endonuclease is no longer under selection, and its activity is lost through random processes. Recent analyses of these parasitic elements with functional homing endonucleases suggest that this model in its most simple form is not always applicable. Apparently, functioning homing endonuclease can persist over long evolutionary times in populations and species that are thought to be asexual or nearly asexual. Here we review these recent findings and discuss their implications. Reasons for the long-term persistence of a functional homing endonuclease include: More recombination (sexual and as a result of gene transfer) than previously assumed for these organisms; complex population structures that prevent the element from being fixed; a balance between active spreading of the homing endonuclease and a decrease in fitness caused by the parasite in the host organism; or a function of the homing endonuclease that increases the fitness of the host organism and results in purifying selection for the homing endonuclease activity, even after fixation in a local population. In the future, more detailed studies of the population dynamics of the activity and regulation of homing endonucleases are needed to decide between these possibilities, and to determine their relative contributions to the long term survival of parasitic genes within a population. Two outstanding publications on the amoeba Naegleria group I intron (Wikmark et al. BMC Evol Biol 2006, 6:39) and the PRP8 inteins in ascomycetes (Butler et al.BMC Evol Biol 2006, 6:42) provide important stepping stones towards integrated studies on how these parasitic elements evolve through time together with, or despite, their hosts. PMID:17101053

Altered self-perception in adult survivors treated for a CNS tumor in childhood or adolescence: population-based outcomes compared with the general population.

PubMed

Hörnquist, Lina; Rickardsson, Jenny; Lannering, Birgitta; Gustafsson, Göran; Boman, Krister K

2015-05-01

Survivors of pediatric CNS tumors are at risk for persistent tumor/treatment-related morbidity, physical disability and social consequences that may alter self-perception, vital for self-identity, mental health and quality of survival. We studied the long-term impact of childhood CNS tumors and their treatment on the self-perception of adult survivors and compared outcomes with those of the general population. The cohort included 697 Swedish survivors diagnosed with a primary CNS tumor during 1982-2001. Comparison data were randomly collected from a stratified general population sample. Survivors and general population individuals were compared as regards self-perception in 5 domains: body image, sports/physical activities, peers, work, and family, and with a global self-esteem index. Within the survivor group, determinants of impact on self-perception were identified. The final analyzed sample included 528 survivors, 75.8% of the entire national cohort. The control sample consisted of 995, 41% of 2500 addressed. Survivors had significantly poorer self-perception outcomes in domains of peers, work, body image, and sports/physical activities, and in the global self-perception measure, compared with those of the general population (all P < .001). Within the survivor group, female gender and persistent visible physical sequelae predicted poorer outcomes in several of the studied domains. Tumor type and a history of cranial radiation therapy were associated with outcomes. An altered self-perception is a potential late effect in adult survivors of pediatric CNS tumors. Self-perception and self-esteem are significant elements of identity, mental health and quality of survival. Therefore, care and psychosocial follow-up of survivors should include measures for identifying disturbances and for assessing the need for psychosocial intervention. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Neuro-Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Forecasting the relative influence of environmental and anthropogenic stressors on polar bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

Atwood, Todd C.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Douglas, David C.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Rode, Karyn D.; Durner, George M.; Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.

2016-01-01

Effective conservation planning requires understanding and ranking threats to wildlife populations. We developed a Bayesian network model to evaluate the relative influence of environmental and anthropogenic stressors, and their mitigation, on the persistence of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Overall sea ice conditions, affected by rising global temperatures, were the most influential determinant of population outcomes. Accordingly, unabated rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations was the dominant influence leading to worsened population outcomes, with polar bears in three of four ecoregions reaching a dominant probability of decreased or greatly decreased by the latter part of this century. Stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations by mid-century delayed the greatly reduced state by ≈25 yr in two ecoregions. Prompt and aggressive mitigation of emissions reduced the probability of any regional population becoming greatly reduced by up to 25%. Marine prey availability, linked closely to sea ice trend, had slightly less influence on outcome state than sea ice availability itself. Reduced mortality from hunting and defense of life and property interactions resulted in modest declines in the probability of a decreased or greatly decreased population outcome. Minimizing other stressors such as trans-Arctic shipping, oil and gas exploration, and contaminants had a negligible effect on polar bear outcomes, although the model was not well-informed with respect to the potential influence of these stressors. Adverse consequences of loss of sea ice habitat became more pronounced as the summer ice-free period lengthened beyond four months, which could occur in most of the Arctic basin after mid-century if GHG emissions are not promptly reduced. Long-term conservation of polar bears would be best supported by holding global mean temperature to ≤ 2°C above preindustrial levels. Until further sea ice loss is stopped, management of other stressors may serve to slow the transition of populations to progressively worsened outcomes, and improve the prospects for their long-term persistence.

Persistent delirium in older hospital patients.

PubMed

Cole, Martin G

2010-05-01

There are two contradictory views on the prognosis of delirium in older hospital patients. On one hand, the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual, 4th Text Revision (DSM-IV-TR), describes delirium as a transient cognitive disorder, the majority of affected individuals having a full recovery. On the other hand, longitudinal studies of delirium in this population report that the outcomes are poor. This review proposes to reconcile these two contradictory views. In older hospital patients, delirium appears to persist in 44.7% of patients at discharge and in 32.8, 25.6 and 21% of patients at 1, 3 and 6 months, respectively. The outcomes (cognition, function, nursing home placement, mortality) of patients with persistent delirium are consistently worse than the outcomes of patients who recover from delirium. The majority of older hospital patients with delirium may recover but the persistence of delirium in a substantial minority of patients may account, in large part, for the poor outcomes of delirium in this population. This proposal has potentially important implications for clinical practice and research.

Overview of persistent pain in older adults.

PubMed

Molton, Ivan R; Terrill, Alexandra L

2014-01-01

With the shifting age demographics of the U.S. population, more psychologists will be asked to provide clinical services to older adults. Given the high prevalence of persistent pain in aging, in many cases this will mean providing empirically supported interventions for pain and the interference it creates. The purpose of this review is to provide a broad overview of the scope and impact of persistent pain in older people and to discuss mechanisms by which persistent geriatric pain can lead to suffering and disability. We consider the unique context of pain in older adulthood and review differences between older and younger people in terms of pain perception, the social network, beliefs about pain, pain-related coping, and adherence to pain medication. Finally, we discuss special issues affecting pain management in older adults, including dementia, polypharmacy, and barriers to accessing adequate pain care. This review also highlights a need for greater provider training in pain management to meet the needs of a changing U.S. population. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

ADAPTIONS OF WILD POPULATIONS OF THE ESTUARINE FISH FUNDULUS HETEROCLITUS TO PERSISTENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONTAMINANTS

EPA Science Inventory

Many aquatic species, including the estuarine fish Fundulus heteroclitus (mummichogs), adapt to local environmental conditions. We conducted studies to evaluate whether highly exposed populations of mummichogs adapt to toxic environmental contaminants. These fish populations are ...

FROM MOLECULES TO POPULATIONS: USING POPULATION GENETICS TO ANSWER THE SO WHAT QUESTION

EPA Science Inventory

Important endpoints for ecological risk assessments are usually those that affect population or species persistence rather than individual-level responses. Nonetheless, ecological risk assessments are generally based on measures of individual-level responses. Extrapolation of i...

Development of a Model System for Tick-Borne Flavivirus Persistence in HEK 293T Cells

PubMed Central

Mlera, Luwanika; Offerdahl, Danielle K.; Martens, Craig; Porcella, Stephen F.; Melik, Wessam

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT We devised a model system to study persistent infection by the tick-borne flavivirus Langat virus (LGTV) in 293T cells. Infection with a molecularly cloned LGTV strain produced an acute lytic crisis that left few surviving cells. The culture was repopulated by cells that were ~90% positive for LGTV E protein, thus initiating a persistent infection that was maintained for at least 35 weeks without additional lytic crises. Staining of cells for viral proteins and ultrastructural analysis revealed only minor differences from the acute phase of infection. Infectious LGTV decreased markedly over the study period, but the number of viral genomes remained relatively constant, suggesting the development of defective interfering particles (DIPs). Viral genome changes were investigated by RNA deep sequencing. At the initiation of persistent infection, levels of DIPs were below the limit of detection at a coverage depth of 11,288-fold, implying that DIPs are not required for initiation of persistence. However, after 15 passages, DIPs constituted approximately 34% of the total LGTV population (coverage of 1,293-fold). Furthermore, at this point, one specific DIP population predominated in which nucleotides 1058 to 2881 had been deleted. This defective genome specified an intact polyprotein that coded for a truncated fusion protein containing 28 N-terminal residues of E and 134 C-terminal residues of NS1. Such a fusion protein has not previously been described, and a possible function in persistent infection is uncertain. DIPs are not required for the initiation of persistent LGTV infection but may play a role in the maintenance of viral persistence. PMID:26045539

Differences in blood pressure control in a large population-based sample of older African Americans and non-Hispanic whites.

PubMed

Delgado, Jose; Jacobs, Elizabeth A; Lackland, Daniel T; Evans, Denis A; de Leon, Carlos F Mendes

2012-11-01

Cardiovascular disease is the main cause of death in older adults. Uncontrolled blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. African Americans have poorer blood pressure control than non-Hispanic whites. Little is known about whether this difference persists in older ages or the factors that contribute to this racial gap. Data were obtained from participants of the Chicago Health and Aging Program. Blood pressure control was defined according to JNC-7 criteria. Univariate chi-square analyses were used to determine racial differences in hypertension and blood pressure control, whereas sequential multivariate logistic regression models were used to determine the effect of race on blood pressure control. African Americans had a higher prevalence of hypertension (74% vs 63%; p < .001), higher awareness of hypertension (81% vs 72%; p < .001), and poorer blood pressure control (45% vs 51%, p < .001) than non-Hispanic whites. Racial differences in blood pressure control persisted after adjustment for socioeconomic status, medical conditions, obesity, and use of antihypertensive medications (odds ratio = 0.84, 95% confidence interval = 0.70-0.94). From 1993 to 2008, blood pressure control improved more among non-Hispanic whites than among African Americans. Racial differences in blood pressure control in older adults were not explained by socioeconomic status. The racial disparity in the prevalence and control of hypertension remained consistent for older hypertensive individuals eligible for Medicare. Although the rates of hypertension control improved for both racial groups, the improvement was greater among whites, thus widening the gap in this older population at high risk for cardiovascular disease.

The impact of translocations on neutral and functional genetic diversity within and among populations of the Seychelles warbler.

PubMed

Wright, David J; Spurgin, Lewis G; Collar, Nigel J; Komdeur, Jan; Burke, Terry; Richardson, David S

2014-05-01

Translocations are an increasingly common tool in conservation. The maintenance of genetic diversity through translocation is critical for both the short- and long-term persistence of populations and species. However, the relative spatio-temporal impacts of translocations on neutral and functional genetic diversity, and how this affects genetic structure among the conserved populations overall, have received little investigation. We compared the impact of translocating different numbers of founders on both microsatellite and major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I diversity over a 23-year period in the Seychelles warbler (Acrocephalus sechellensis). We found low and stable microsatellite and MHC diversity in the source population and evidence for only a limited loss of either type of diversity in the four new populations. However, we found evidence of significant, but low to moderate, genetic differentiation between populations, with those populations established with fewer founders clustering separately. Stochastic genetic capture (as opposed to subsequent drift) was the main determinant of translocated population diversity. Furthermore, a strong correlation between microsatellite and MHC differentiation suggested that neutral processes outweighed selection in shaping MHC diversity in the new populations. These data provide important insights into how to optimize the use of translocation as a conservation tool. © 2014 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The impact of translocations on neutral and functional genetic diversity within and among populations of the Seychelles warbler

PubMed Central

Wright, David J; Spurgin, Lewis G; Collar, Nigel J; Komdeur, Jan; Burke, Terry; Richardson, David S

2014-01-01

Translocations are an increasingly common tool in conservation. The maintenance of genetic diversity through translocation is critical for both the short- and long-term persistence of populations and species. However, the relative spatio-temporal impacts of translocations on neutral and functional genetic diversity, and how this affects genetic structure among the conserved populations overall, have received little investigation. We compared the impact of translocating different numbers of founders on both microsatellite and major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I diversity over a 23-year period in the Seychelles warbler (Acrocephalus sechellensis). We found low and stable microsatellite and MHC diversity in the source population and evidence for only a limited loss of either type of diversity in the four new populations. However, we found evidence of significant, but low to moderate, genetic differentiation between populations, with those populations established with fewer founders clustering separately. Stochastic genetic capture (as opposed to subsequent drift) was the main determinant of translocated population diversity. Furthermore, a strong correlation between microsatellite and MHC differentiation suggested that neutral processes outweighed selection in shaping MHC diversity in the new populations. These data provide important insights into how to optimize the use of translocation as a conservation tool. PMID:24689851

Critical factors in the establishment of allopolyploids.

PubMed

Fowler, Norma L; Levin, Donald A

2016-07-01

The growth and spread of new polyploid populations have been explained in terms of fitness advantages over their diploid progenitors. However, a fitness advantage is not sufficient to insure the establishment of a polyploid; it must also overcome the obstacles of demographic stochasticity and minority disadvantage. Several studies have addressed the population dynamics of autopolyploids, but the present study is the first to consider allopolyploids, which are affected by more factors than autopolyploids. We constructed a population dynamic model of four types of plants (two parent species, hybrids, allopolyploids) that also included an explicit breeding system. The numbers of plants of each type were the most important factors determining whether the new allopolyploid would become established. More polyploid plants greatly increased the likelihood of polyploid persistence. More plants of the parent species and more hybrids resulted in more polyploids being produced. The model parameters with the most effect on polyploid establishment were potential population size (K), individual plant fecundity, and niche separation (α). The most important breeding system parameters were selfing rates, which mitigated minority disadvantage imposed by pollen limitation. The importance of population sizes, and the parameters that controlled them, in overcoming demographic stochasticity parallels the well-recognized role of propagule pressure in determining the success of invasive species. We modeled the establishment of a new allopolyploid; analogous considerations would affect the establishment of a new autopolyploid. The critical role of population sizes in polyploid establishment should be more widely recognized. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Micropredation on sea urchins as a potential stabilizing process for rocky reefs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonaviri, Chiara; Gianguzza, Paola; Pipitone, Carlo; Hereu, Bernat

2012-10-01

Rocky reefs can shift from forest, a state dominated by erect algae with high biodiversity, to barren, an impoverished state dominated by encrusting algae. Sea urchins, abundant in barrens, are usually held responsible for the maintenance of this state. Predation by large fish can revert the barren state to forest by controlling sea urchin populations. However, the persistence of a community state sometimes seems to be independent from the presence of such large predators, suggesting the existence of other unknown mechanisms ensuring their stability. Theoretical studies suggest that the settler stage of sea urchins is determinant for maintaining a given rocky reef state. In this study, we have identified several potential invertebrate micropredators of settlers of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus and measured their predation activity. Predation rates showed marked differences among species, possibly due to morphological and/or behavioral traits. Micropredators were more abundant in the forest than in barren, and their potential impact on the sea urchin community differed between the two states by two orders of magnitude. These findings suggest a novel self-perpetuating mechanism stabilizing rocky reef systems, where the abundance of micropredators may contribute to shape the sea urchin population, which in turn is responsible for the persistence of the state.

33 CFR Appendix B to Part 155 - Determining and Evaluating Required Response Resources for Vessel Response Plans

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... carried [persistent (groups II, III, and IV) or non-persistent (group I)]; and the geographic area(s) in... type of petroleum oil carried [persistent (groups II, III, and IV) or non-persistent (group I)]; and... Petroleum Oil Cargo Groups Non-persistent oil 72 G: Group I 1.0 Persistent oil: Group II 1.8 Group III 2.0...

33 CFR Appendix B to Part 155 - Determining and Evaluating Required Response Resources for Vessel Response Plans

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... carried [persistent (groups II, III, and IV) or non-persistent (group I)]; and the geographic area(s) in... type of petroleum oil carried [persistent (groups II, III, and IV) or non-persistent (group I)]; and... Petroleum Oil Cargo Groups Non-persistent oil 72 G: Group I 1.0 Persistent oil: Group II 1.8 Group III 2.0...

33 CFR Appendix B to Part 155 - Determining and Evaluating Required Response Resources for Vessel Response Plans

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... carried [persistent (groups II, III, and IV) or non-persistent (group I)]; and the geographic area(s) in... type of petroleum oil carried [persistent (groups II, III, and IV) or non-persistent (group I)]; and... Petroleum Oil Cargo Groups Non-persistent oil 72 G: Group I 1.0 Persistent oil: Group II 1.8 Group III 2.0...

Hypersomnolence and Sleep-related Complaints in Metropolitan, Urban, and Rural Georgia

PubMed Central

Decker, Michael J.; Lin, Jin-Mann S.; Tabassum, Humyra

2009-01-01

Persistent daytime hypersomnolence is associated with significant morbidity and mortality, but its prevalence in the population has been poorly documented. This study sought to characterize the prevalence of persistent daytime hypersomnolence, difficulties initiating and maintaining sleep, unrefreshing sleep, snoring, and the presence of physician-diagnosed sleep disorders in metropolitan, urban, and rural US Georgia populations. Between September 2004 and July 2005, a total of 6,530 randomly selected well and unwell adults, identified by screening interviews of 10,837 households (contacted by random digit dialing), completed a detailed phone interview. Sixteen percent reported persistent problems staying awake during the day; 26% reported persistent problems falling asleep at night; 31% experienced problems sleeping through the night; 34% were bothered by unrefreshing sleep; and 33% reported that they snored. In spite of the high occurrence of reported persistent sleep problems, only 10% of the survey participants reported having been diagnosed with a sleep disorder. These study findings highlight the need for increased public and clinician awareness with respect to proactively indentifying signs and symptoms of sleep disorders, a better understanding of their adverse impact upon morbidity and mortality, and their negative impact upon socioeconomic and academic potential. PMID:19066308

Climate change jeopardizes the persistence of freshwater zooplankton by reducing both habitat suitability and demographic resilience.

PubMed

Pinceel, Tom; Buschke, Falko; Weckx, Margo; Brendonck, Luc; Vanschoenwinkel, Bram

2018-01-24

Higher temperatures and increased environmental variability under climate change could jeopardize the persistence of species. Organisms that rely on short windows of rainfall to complete their life-cycles, like desert annual plants or temporary pool animals, may be particularly at risk. Although some could tolerate environmental changes by building-up banks of propagules (seeds or eggs) that buffer against catastrophes, climate change will threaten this resilience mechanism if higher temperatures reduce propagule survival. Using a crustacean model species from temporary waters, we quantified experimentally the survival and dormancy of propagules under anticipated climate change and used these demographic parameters to simulate long term population dynamics. By exposing propagules to present-day and projected daily temperature cycles in an 8 month laboratory experiment, we showed how increased temperatures reduce survival rates in the propagule bank. Integrating these reduced survival rates into population models demonstrated the inability of the bank to maintain populations; thereby exacerbating extinction risk caused by shortened growing seasons. Overall, our study demonstrates that climate change could threaten the persistence of populations by both reducing habitat suitability and eroding life-history strategies that support demographic resilience.

Persistence of butterfly populations in fragmented habitats along urban density gradients: motility helps

PubMed Central

Rochat, E; Manel, S; Deschamps-Cottin, M; Widmer, I; Joost, S

2017-01-01

In a simulation study of genotypes conducted over 100 generations for more than 1600 butterfly’s individuals, we evaluate how the increase of anthropogenic fragmentation and reduction of habitat size along urbanisation gradients (from 7 to 59% of impervious land cover) influences genetic diversity and population persistence in butterfly species. We show that in areas characterised by a high urbanisation rate (>56% impervious land cover), a large decrease of both genetic diversity (loss of 60–80% of initial observed heterozygosity) and population size (loss of 70–90% of individuals) is observed over time. This is confirmed by empirical data available for the mobile butterfly species Pieris rapae in a subpart of the study area. Comparing simulated data for P. rapae with its normal dispersal ability and with a reduced dispersal ability, we also show that a higher dispersal ability can be an advantage to survive in an urban or highly fragmented environment. The results obtained here suggest that it is of high importance to account for population persistence, and confirm that it is crucial to maintain habitat size and connectivity in the context of land-use planning. PMID:28792492

A meta-analysis of the relation of polymorphism at sites -1082 and -592 of the IL-10 gene promoter with susceptibility and clearance to persistent hepatitis B virus infection in the Chinese population.

PubMed

Zhang, T-C; Pan, F-M; Zhang, L-Z; Gao, Y-F; Zhang, Z-H; Gao, J; Ge, R; Mei, Y; Shen, B-B; Duan, Z-H; Li, X

2011-02-01

Up to now, many publications about the Chinese population have evaluated the correlation between interleukin-10 (IL-10) -1082 and -592 polymorphisms and persistent hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. However, the results remain inconclusive. In order to resolve this conflict, a meta-analysis was performed. Seven studies were included and dichotomous data are presented as the odds ratio (OR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI). The results of our study suggest that carriers of the IL-10 -592A allele were more likely to clear HBV spontaneously in the Chinese pooled population (A vs. C: OR = 0.799, 95% CI = 0.678-0.941, P = 0.007; AC vs. AA: OR = 1.343, 95% CI = 1.017-1.684, P = 0.011; AA vs. AC + CC: OR = 0.736, 95% CI = 0.594-0.912; AA + AC vs. CC: OR = 0.588, 95% CI = 0.408-0.848, P = 0.004) and the IL-10 -1082A allele was associated with significantly reduced persistent HBV infection risk in Chinese (A vs. G: OR = 0.701, 95% CI = 0.494-0.996, P = 0.047; AA vs. GG + GA: OR = 0.684, 95% CI = 0.476-0.982, P = 0.040). Persistent HBV infection susceptibility is associated with the gene polymorphism IL-10 -1082GA in the Chinese population and the clearance of HBV is associated with the gene polymorphism IL-10 -592CA in the Chinese population.

Extinction dynamics of a discrete population in an oasis.

PubMed

Berti, Stefano; Cencini, Massimo; Vergni, Davide; Vulpiani, Angelo

2015-07-01

Understanding the conditions ensuring the persistence of a population is an issue of primary importance in population biology. The first theoretical approach to the problem dates back to the 1950s with the Kierstead, Slobodkin, and Skellam (KiSS) model, namely a continuous reaction-diffusion equation for a population growing on a patch of finite size L surrounded by a deadly environment with infinite mortality, i.e., an oasis in a desert. The main outcome of the model is that only patches above a critical size allow for population persistence. Here we introduce an individual-based analog of the KiSS model to investigate the effects of discreteness and demographic stochasticity. In particular, we study the average time to extinction both above and below the critical patch size of the continuous model and investigate the quasistationary distribution of the number of individuals for patch sizes above the critical threshold.

New daily persistent headache: A lack of an association with white matter abnormalities on neuroimaging.

PubMed

Rozen, Todd D

2016-09-01

To provide results from the largest study of new daily persistent headache patients to date and specifically evaluate if patients with primary new daily persistent headache develop white matter abnormalities or infarct-like lesions on neuroimaging. Retrospective analysis of patient medical records utilizing an electronic medical record system. All patients were seen at a headache specialty clinic by a single headache neurologist and diagnosed with primary new daily persistent headache during the time period of January 2009 to January 2013. Altogether, 97 patients were diagnosed with primary new daily persistent headache (65 women and 32 men). The mean average age of onset was slightly younger in women than men: 32.4 years vs. 35.8 years. In total, 84 of the 97 new daily persistent headache patients had no white matter abnormalities or infarct-like lesions on magnetic resonance imaging with a gender distribution of 56 women and 28 men. The mean age of onset of this white matter negative subgroup was 31.1 years. Of these individuals, 36% had cardiovascular/cerebrovascular risk factors and 44% had a history of migraine. Only 13 new daily persistent headache patients (nine women, four men) demonstrated white matter abnormalities on magnetic resonance imaging. None had infarct-like lesions. The mean age of onset of this white matter positive subgroup was 54.2 years, significantly older than the white matter negative population (p < .05). All new daily persistent headache patients in the white matter positive subgroup had cardiovascular/cerebrovascular risk factors and dual risk factors were noted in seven of 13 patients. Only 23% had a migraine history. Almost 40% of the patients in the white matter negative group were imaged 3 years after headache onset and at least six patients were imaged at least 9 years or more after onset of new daily persistent headache. Triggering events in both white matter lesion positive and negative populations were typical of the new daily persistent headache population as a whole and not specific to the presence or absence of brain imaging lesions except for a post-surgery trigger, which was significantly more likely to occur in the white matter positive group. Migraine associated symptoms occurred in 77% of the white matter negative subgroup compared with 46% of the white matter positive subgroup, which was a significant difference. White matter abnormalities and infarct-like lesions do not appear to occur in primary new daily persistent headache patients. Only new daily persistent headache patients with risk factors (cardiovascular/cerebrovascular or migraine) developed white matter abnormalities on brain magnetic resonance imaging. No patient with new daily persistent headache developed infarct-like lesions. New daily persistent headache triggering events (outside of possibly post-surgery) or the presence of migrainous symptoms did not appear to enhance the development of white matter abnormalities. © International Headache Society 2015.

Reserve design to maximize species persistence

Treesearch

Robert G. Haight; Laurel E. Travis

2008-01-01

We develop a reserve design strategy to maximize the probability of species persistence predicted by a stochastic, individual-based, metapopulation model. Because the population model does not fit exact optimization procedures, our strategy involves deriving promising solutions from theory, obtaining promising solutions from a simulation optimization heuristic, and...

Assessing critical habitat: Evaluating the relative contribution of habitats to population persistence

EPA Science Inventory

1. A principal challenge of species conservation is to identify the specific habitats that are essential for long-term persistence or recovery of species at risk. However, many commonly used approaches to identifying important habitats do not provide direct insight into the contr...

DEVELOPING A PRODUCTION POSSIBILITY SET OF WILDLIFE SPECIES PERSISTENCE AND TIMBER HARVEST VALUE

EPA Science Inventory

An integrated model combing a wildlife population simulation model, and timber harvest and growth models was developed to explore the tradeoffs between the likelihood of persistence of a hypothetical wildlife species and timber harvest volumes on a landscape in the Central Oregon...

Parental identity influences progeny responses to incubation thermal stress in sockeye salmon Onchorhynchus nerka.

PubMed

Burt, J M; Hinch, S G; Patterson, D A

2012-02-01

The influence of individual parentage on progeny responses to early developmental temperature stress was examined in a cross-fertilization experiment using sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka. Differences in survival, hatch timing and size were examined among five paternally linked and five maternally linked offspring families (Weaver Creek population, British Columbia, Canada) incubated at 12, 14 and 16° C from just after fertilization to hatch. Mean embryonic survival was significantly lower at 14 and 16° C; however, offspring families had substantially different survival responses across the thermal gradient (crossing reaction norms). Within temperature treatments, substantial variation in embryonic survival, alevin mass, time-to-hatch and hatch duration were attributable to family identity; however, most traits were governed by significant temperature-family interactions. For embryonic survival, large differences between families at 16° C were due to both female and male spawner influence, whereas inter-family differences were obscured at 14° C (high intra-family variation), and minimal at 12° C (only maternal influence detected). Despite post-hatch rearing under a common cool thermal regime, persistent effects of both temperature and parentage were detected in alevin and 3 week-old fry. Collectively, these findings highlight the crucial role that parental influences on offspring may have in shaping future selection within salmonid populations exposed to elevated thermal regimes. An increased understanding of parental and temperature influences and their persistence in early development will be essential to developing a more comprehensive view of population spawning success and determining the adaptive capacity of O. nerka populations in the face of environmental change. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2011 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Genetic Origins of Lactase Persistence and the Spread of Pastoralism in Africa

PubMed Central

Ranciaro, Alessia; Campbell, Michael C.; Hirbo, Jibril B.; Ko, Wen-Ya; Froment, Alain; Anagnostou, Paolo; Kotze, Maritha J.; Ibrahim, Muntaser; Nyambo, Thomas; Omar, Sabah A.; Tishkoff, Sarah A.

2014-01-01

In humans, the ability to digest lactose, the sugar in milk, declines after weaning because of decreasing levels of the enzyme lactase-phlorizin hydrolase, encoded by LCT. However, some individuals maintain high enzyme amounts and are able to digest lactose into adulthood (i.e., they have the lactase-persistence [LP] trait). It is thought that selection has played a major role in maintaining this genetically determined phenotypic trait in different human populations that practice pastoralism. To identify variants associated with the LP trait and to study its evolutionary history in Africa, we sequenced MCM6 introns 9 and 13 and ∼2 kb of the LCT promoter region in 819 individuals from 63 African populations and in 154 non-Africans from nine populations. We also genotyped four microsatellites in an ∼198 kb region in a subset of 252 individuals to reconstruct the origin and spread of LP-associated variants in Africa. Additionally, we examined the association between LP and genetic variability at candidate regulatory regions in 513 individuals from eastern Africa. Our analyses confirmed the association between the LP trait and three common variants in intron 13 (C-14010, G-13907, and G-13915). Furthermore, we identified two additional LP-associated SNPs in intron 13 and the promoter region (G-12962 and T-956, respectively). Using neutrality tests based on the allele frequency spectrum and long-range linkage disequilibrium, we detected strong signatures of recent positive selection in eastern African populations and the Fulani from central Africa. In addition, haplotype analysis supported an eastern African origin of the C-14010 LP-associated mutation in southern Africa. PMID:24630847

Quantifying changes and influences on mottled duck density in Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Beth; Haukos, David A.; Walther, Patrick

2018-01-01

Understanding the relative influence of environmental and intrinsic effects on populations is important for managing and conserving harvested species, especially those species inhabiting changing environments. Additionally, climate change can increase the uncertainty associated with management of species in these changing environments, making understanding factors affecting their populations even more important. Coastal ecosystems are particularly threatened by climate change; the combined effects of increasing severe weather events, sea level rise, and drought will likely have non-linear effects on coastal marsh wildlife species and their associated habitats. A species of conservation concern that persists in these coastal areas is the mottled duck (Anas fulvigula). Mottled ducks in the western Gulf Coast are approximately 50% below target abundance numbers established by the Gulf Coast Joint Venture for Texas and Louisiana, USA. Although evidence for declines in mottled duck abundance is apparent, specific causes of the decrease remain unknown. Our goals were to determine where the largest declines in mottled duck population were occurring along the system of Texas Gulf Coast National Wildlife Refuges and quantify the relative contribution of environmental and intrinsic effects on changes to relative population density. We modeled aerial survey data of mottled duck density along the Texas Gulf Coast from 1986–2015 to quantify effects of extreme weather events on an index to mottled duck density using the United States Climate Extremes Index and Palmer Drought Severity Index. Our results indicate that decreases in abundance are best described by an increase in days with extreme 1-day precipitation from June to November (hurricane season) and an increase in drought severity. Better understanding those portions of the life cycle affected by environmental conditions, and how to manage mottled duck habitat in conjunction with these events will likely be key to persistence of the species under future environmental conditions.

Fire, Ice and Water: Glaciologic, Paleoclimate and Anthropogenic Linkages During Past Mega-Droughts in the Uinta Mountains, Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Power, M. J.; Rupper, S.; Codding, B.; Schaefer, J.; Hess, M.

2017-12-01

Alpine glaciers provide a valuable water source during prolonged drought events. We explore whether long-term climate dynamics and associated glacier changes within mountain drainage basins and adjacent landscapes ultimately influence how prehistoric human populations choose settlement locations. The Uinta Mountains of Utah, with a steep present-day precipitation gradient from the lowlands to the alpine zone of 20-100 cm per year, has a rich glacial history related to natural and anthropogenic climate variability. Here we examine how past climate variability has impacted glaciers and ultimately the availability of water over long timescales, and how these changes affected human settlement and subsistence decisions. Through a combination of geomorphologic evidence, paleoclimate proxies, and glacier and climate modelling, we test the hypothesis that glacier-charged hydrologic systems buffer prehistoric populations during extreme drought periods, facilitating long-term landscape management with fire. Initial field surveys suggest middle- and low-elevation glacial valleys contain glacially-derived sediment from meltwater and resulted in terraced river channels and outwash plains visible today. These terraces provide estimates of river discharge during varying stages of glacier advance and retreat. Archaeological evidence from middle- and high-elevations in the Uinta Mountains suggests human populations persisted through periods of dramatic climate change, possibly linked to the persistence of glacially-derived water resources through drought periods. Paleoenvironmental records indicate a long history of fire driven by the combined interaction of climatic variation and human disturbance. This research highlights the important role of moisture variability determining human settlement patterns and landscape management throughout time, and has direct relevance to the impacts of anthropogenic precipitation and glacier changes on vulnerable populations in the coming century, especially in drought-prone regions.

Lactase non-persistence and general patterns of dairy intake in indigenous and mestizo chilean populations.

PubMed

Fernández, Catalina I; Montalva, Nicolás; Arias, Macarena; Hevia, Macarena; Moraga, Mauricio L; Flores, Sergio V

2016-01-01

Lactase persistence (LP) is a genetic trait that has been studied among different countries and ethnic groups. In Latin America, the frequencies of this trait have been shown to vary according to the degree of admixture of the populations. The objective of this study is to better understand the relationship between this genetic trait and dairy intake in a multiethnic context through a synthesis of studies conducted in four regions of Chile. Genotypes frequencies for the SNP LCT-13910C>T (rs4988235) and frequency of dairy consumption were obtained from four populations: Polynesians from Easter Island (Rapanui); Amerindians (Mapuche) and Mestizos from the Araucanía region; urban Mestizos from Santiago; and rural Mestizos from the Coquimbo region. Genetic differentiation and association between milk consumption and genotype frequencies were estimated. Genetic differentiation between Native and Mestizo populations was significant; the LP frequency in Mapuche and Rapanui was 10% and 25%, respectively, whereas among the Mestizos, LP frequency was near 40%. Dairy intake was below the nutritional recommendations for the four groups, and extremely below recommendations among the indigenous populations. Association between milk intake and LP was found in Santiago and Rapanui populations. Although the frequency of LP varies among the populations according to their degree of admixture, dairy consumption was very low across the populations. Given that the association between milk consumption and expected phenotype was found only in two of the populations analyzed, it seems that lactase non-persistence (LNP) is not the only cause for dairy avoidance. Thus, it is suggested that SES and cultural preferences are likely affecting dairy consumption. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Study of Persistence in the Northeast State Community College Health-Related Programs of Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, Allana R.

2011-12-01

The purpose of the study was to identify factors that were positively associated with persistence to graduation by students who were admitted to Health-Related Programs leading to the degree associate of applied science at Northeast State Community College. The criterion variable in this study was persistence, which was categorized into two groups the persister group (program completers) and the nonpersister (program noncompleters) group. The predictor variables included gender, ethnic origin, first- (or nonfirst-) generation-student status, age, specific major program of study, number of remedial and/or developmental courses taken, grades in selected courses (human anatomy and physiology I and II, microbiology, probability and statistics, composition I, clinical I, clinical II), and number of mathematics and science credit hours earned prior to program admission. The data for this ex post facto nonexperimental design were located in Northeast State's student records database, Banner Information System. The subjects of the study were students who had been admitted into Health-Related Programs of study at a 2-year public community college between the years of 1999 and 2008. The population size was 761. Health-Related Programs of study included Dental Assisting, Cardiovascular Technology, Emergency Medical Technology -- Paramedic, Medical Laboratory Technology, Nursing, and Surgical Technology. A combination of descriptive and inferential statistics was used in the analysis of the data. Descriptive statistics included measures of central tendency, standard deviations, and percentages, as appropriate. Independent samples t-tests were used to determine if the mean of a variable on one group of subjects was different from the mean of the same variable with a different group of subjects. It was found that gender, ethnic origin, first-generation status, and age were not significantly associated with persistence to graduation. However, findings did reveal a statistically significant difference in persistence rates among the specific Health-Related Programs of study. Academic data including grades in human anatomy and physiology I, probability and statistics, and composition I, suggested a relationship between the course grade and persistence to graduation. Findings also revealed a relationship between the number of math and science courses completed and students' persistence to graduation.

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-08-06

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an 'extinction window' of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the 'extinction window', although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Incidence and persistence of classical swine fever in free-ranging wild boar (Sus scrofa).

PubMed

Rossi, S; Fromont, E; Pontier, D; Crucière, C; Hars, J; Barrat, J; Pacholek, X; Artois, M

2005-06-01

Although veterinary authorities aim to limit persistence of classical swine fever (CSF) in wild boar (Sus scrofa), to avoid potential transmission to pigs, factors influencing CSF transmission and persistence are not clearly understood. Here we analyse incidence and persistence in a CSF epidemic that occurred in the French Vosges Forest. Higher incidence was found in large forests compared to smaller isolated ones, being highest near the starting point of the epidemic, but poorly related to the local density. We hypothesize that the spatial and social structure of wild boar populations may be responsible for this variability of incidence over space. Persistence was highest near the starting point of the epidemic and where initial density was highest. We hypothesize that persistence was favoured by the abundance of young wild boar, itself encouraged by CSF. Our results allow us to propose management measures aimed at limiting CSF persistence.

Critical patch size generated by Allee effect in gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.)

Treesearch

E. Vercken; A.M. Kramer; P.C. Tobin; J.M. Drake

2011-01-01

Allee effects are important dynamical mechanisms in small-density populations in which per capita population growth rate increases with density. When positive density dependence is sufficiently severe (a 'strong' Allee effect), a critical density arises below which populations do not persist. For spatially distributed populations subject to dispersal, theory...

Planning Marine Reserve Networks for Both Feature Representation and Demographic Persistence Using Connectivity Patterns

PubMed Central

Bode, Michael; Williamson, David H.; Weeks, Rebecca; Jones, Geoff P.; Almany, Glenn R.; Harrison, Hugo B.; Hopf, Jess K.; Pressey, Robert L.

2016-01-01

Marine reserve networks must ensure the representation of important conservation features, and also guarantee the persistence of key populations. For many species, designing reserve networks is complicated by the absence or limited availability of spatial and life-history data. This is particularly true for data on larval dispersal, which has only recently become available. However, systematic conservation planning methods currently incorporate demographic processes through unsatisfactory surrogates. There are therefore two key challenges to designing marine reserve networks that achieve feature representation and demographic persistence constraints. First, constructing a method that efficiently incorporates persistence as well as complementary feature representation. Second, incorporating persistence using a mechanistic description of population viability, rather than a proxy such as size or distance. Here we construct a novel systematic conservation planning method that addresses both challenges, and parameterise it to design a hypothetical marine reserve network for fringing coral reefs in the Keppel Islands, Great Barrier Reef, Australia. For this application, we describe how demographic persistence goals can be constructed for an important reef fish species in the region, the bar-cheeked trout (Plectropomus maculatus). We compare reserve networks that are optimally designed for either feature representation or demographic persistence, with a reserve network that achieves both goals simultaneously. As well as being practically applicable, our analyses also provide general insights into marine reserve planning for both representation and demographic persistence. First, persistence constraints for dispersive organisms are likely to be much harder to achieve than representation targets, due to their greater complexity. Second, persistence and representation constraints pull the reserve network design process in divergent directions, making it difficult to efficiently achieve both constraints. Although our method can be readily applied to the data-rich Keppel Islands case study, we finally consider the factors that limit the method’s utility in information-poor contexts common in marine conservation. PMID:27168206

Stochastic Modeling of the Persistence of HIV: Early Population Dynamics

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-05-10

fluid, Brownian motion is named after the botanist Robert Brown. In the late nineteenth century, he observed that pollen floating in water appeared...to move about in a random manner. When he replaced the pollen with inorganic material, he noticed that the motion persisted. Upon plotting the motion

Case Report: Emergence of bovine viral diarrhea virus persistently infected calves in a closed herd

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) continues to have significant economic impact on the cattle industry worldwide. The virus is primarily maintained in the cattle population due to persistently infected animals. Herd surveillance along with good vaccination programs and biosecurity practices are the...

Do persistently fast-growing juveniles contribute disproportionately to population growth? A new analysis tool for matrix models and its application to rainforest trees.

PubMed

Zuidema, Pieter A; Brienen, Roel J W; During, Heinjo J; Güneralp, Burak

2009-11-01

Plants and animals often exhibit strong and persistent growth variation among individuals within a species. Persistently fast-growing individuals have a higher chance of reaching reproductive size, do so at a younger age, and therefore contribute disproportionately to population growth (lambda). Here we introduce a new approach to quantify this "fast-growth effect." We propose using age-size-structured matrix models in which persistently fast and slow growers are distinguished as they occur in relatively young and old age classes for a given size category. Life-cycle pathways involving fast growth can then be identified, and their contribution to lambda is quantified through loop analysis. We applied this approach to an example species, the tropical rainforest tree Cedrela odorata, that shows persistent growth variation among individuals. Loop analysis showed that juvenile trees reaching the 10-cm diameter class at below-median age contributed twice as much to lambda as slow juvenile growers. Fast growth to larger-diameter categories also contributed disproportionately to lambda. The results were robust to changes in parameter values and life-history trade-offs. These results show that the fast-growth effect can be strong in long-lived species. Persistent growth differences among individuals should therefore be accommodated for in demographic models and life-history studies.

Survival of bactericidal antibiotic treatment by tolerant persister cells of Klebsiella pneumoniae.

PubMed

Li, Ying; Zhang, Luhua; Zhou, Yingshun; Zhang, Zhikun; Zhang, Xinzhuo

2018-03-01

Persister cells, a subpopulation of tolerant cells within the bacterial culture, are commonly thought to be responsible for antibiotic therapy failure and infection recurrence. Klebsiella pneumoniae is a notorious human pathogen for its increasing resistance to antibiotics and wide involvement in severe infections. In this study, we aimed to investigate the persister subpopulation of K. pneumoniae. The presence of persisters in K. pneumoniae was determined by treatment with high concentrations of antibiotics, used alone or in combination. The effect of low level of antibiotics on persister formation was investigated by pre-exposure of cells to antibiotics with low concentrations followed by higher doses. The dependence of persister levels on growth phase was determined by measuring the survival ability of cells along the growth stages upon exposure to a high concentration of antibiotic. Analysis on persister type was carried out by persister elimination assays.Results/Key findings. We show that K. pneumoniae produces high levels of tolerant persister cells to survive treatment by a variety of high concentrations of bactericidal antibiotics and persister formation is prevalent among K. pneumoniae clinical strains. Besides, we find that persister cells can be induced by low concentrations of antibiotics. Finally, we provide evidence that persister formation is growth phase-dependent and Type II persisters dominate the persister subpopulation during the entire exponential phase of K. pneumoniae. Our study describes the formation of tolerant persister cells that allow survival of treatment by high concentrations of antibiotics in K. pneumoniae.

Population Viability Analysis of the Endangered Roan Antelope in Ruma National Park, Kenya, and Implications for Management

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Population viability analysis (PVA) was used to (1) establish causes of roan population decline for the past 30 years in Ruma National Park (RNP), the only park where wild roans remain in Kenya, and (2) predict the probability of roan persistence under existing and alternative management options. PVA was done using long-term data based on population dynamics, life history, climatic conditions, and expert knowledge. Poaching was identified as the main cause of roan decline in RNP. Several antipoaching and prioritized habitat management interventions to promote population recovery and sustainable conservation of roans are described. PVA predictions indicated that, without these interventions, the roan population cannot persist more than 3 decades. Furthermore, ensuring sustainable conservation of roans in RNP will boost tourism in Western Kenyan and thus alleviate poverty in this part of the country. Improved income from tourism will reduce the possible pressures from hunting and give greater incentives for local people to be actively engaged in roan conservation. PMID:29643756

Population Viability Analysis of the Endangered Roan Antelope in Ruma National Park, Kenya, and Implications for Management.

PubMed

Kimanzi, Johnstone K

2018-01-01

Population viability analysis (PVA) was used to (1) establish causes of roan population decline for the past 30 years in Ruma National Park (RNP), the only park where wild roans remain in Kenya, and (2) predict the probability of roan persistence under existing and alternative management options. PVA was done using long-term data based on population dynamics, life history, climatic conditions, and expert knowledge. Poaching was identified as the main cause of roan decline in RNP. Several antipoaching and prioritized habitat management interventions to promote population recovery and sustainable conservation of roans are described. PVA predictions indicated that, without these interventions, the roan population cannot persist more than 3 decades. Furthermore, ensuring sustainable conservation of roans in RNP will boost tourism in Western Kenyan and thus alleviate poverty in this part of the country. Improved income from tourism will reduce the possible pressures from hunting and give greater incentives for local people to be actively engaged in roan conservation.

Population viability of the Snake River chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Emlen, John M.

1995-01-01

In the presence of historical data, population viability models of intermediate complexity can be parameterized and utilized to project the consequences of various management actions for endangered species. A general stochastic population dynamics model with density feedback, age structure, and autocorrelated environmental fluctuations was constructed and parameterized for best fit over 36 years of spring chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) redd count data in five Idaho index streams. Simulations indicate that persistence of the Snake River spring chinook salmon population depends primarily on density-independent mortality. Improvement of rearing habitat, predator control, reduced fishing pressure, and improved dam passage all would alleviate density-independent mortality. The current value of the Ricker α should provide for a continuation of the status quo. A recovery of the population to 1957–1961 levels within 100 years would require an approximately 75% increase in survival and (or) fecundity. Manipulations of the Ricker β are likely to have little or no effect on persistence versus extinction, but considerable influence on population size.

The natural course of eczema from birth to age 7 years and the association with asthma and allergic rhinitis: a population-based birth cohort study.

PubMed

Shen, Chian-Yin; Lin, Ming-Chih; Lin, Heng-Kuei; Lin, Ching-Heng; Fu, Lin-Shien; Fu, Yun-Chin

2013-01-01

Although "atopic march" is a popular concept, the relationship between eczema and subsequent asthma is far from clear. However, some cohort studies have shown the possibility of two different allergic phenotypes in those who present with early eczema in terms of their persistency. We checked the cohort data from 308,849 children born in 2000 in Taiwan, to evaluate the different courses of eczema and their relationships to subsequent asthma and allergic rhinitis (AR) at age 7 years. We examined the age prevalence of eczema, asthma, and AR up to 7 years of age. We grouped all cases according to their course of eczema, as well as wheezing, and determined the rates of asthma and AR at age 7 years. We checked the adjusted risk factors by multiple logistic regression model. We also examined the distributions of wheezing types in different eczema groups. We found the "atopic march" pattern of allergic diseases based on their age prevalence. Early eczema was associated with asthma and AR at the age of 7 years. Those with eczema symptoms persisting after 36 months of age had a higher risk than those with transient eczema. Early wheeze also contributed to asthma and AR later in childhood. In addition, late-onset eczema had a completely different wheeze distribution compared with other groups and also had a higher risk for asthma and AR than transient eczema. In conclusion, different eczema phenotypes could be found in this population-based cohort. This article emphasizes the special attention to the persistency and late-onset eczema in clinical practice.

Live attenuated influenza vaccine use and safety in children and adults with asthma.

PubMed

Duffy, Jonathan; Lewis, Melissa; Harrington, Theresa; Baxter, Roger; Belongia, Edward A; Jackson, Lisa A; Jacobsen, Steven J; Lee, Grace M; Naleway, Allison L; Nordin, James; Daley, Matthew F

2017-04-01

Live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) might increase the risk of wheezing in persons with asthma or children younger than 5 years with a history of recurrent wheezing. To describe the use and assess the safety of LAIV in persons with asthma in the Vaccine Safety Datalink population. We identified persons with asthma using diagnosis codes and medication records in 7 health care organizations over 3 influenza seasons (2008-2009 through 2010-2011) and determined their influenza vaccination rates. Using the self-controlled risk interval method, we calculated the incidence rate ratio of medically attended respiratory events in the 14 days after LAIV compared with 29 to 42 days after vaccination in persons 2 through 49 years old. In our population of 6.3 million, asthma prevalence was 5.9%. Of persons with asthma, approximately 50% received any influenza vaccine but less than 1% received LAIV. The safety study included 12,354 LAIV doses (75% in children; 93% in those with intermittent or mild persistent asthma). The incidence rate ratio for inpatient and emergency department visits for lower respiratory events (including asthma exacerbation and wheezing) was 0.98 (95% confidence interval 0.63-1.51) and the incidence rate ratio for upper respiratory events was 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.48-1.86). The risk of lower respiratory events was similar for intermittent and mild persistent asthma, across age groups, and for seasonal trivalent LAIV and 2009 H1N1 pandemic monovalent LAIV. LAIV use in asthma was mostly in persons with intermittent or mild persistent asthma. LAIV was not associated with an increased risk of medically attended respiratory adverse events. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Longevity of clonal plants: why it matters and how to measure it

PubMed Central

de Witte, Lucienne C.; Stöcklin, Jürg

2010-01-01

Background Species' life-history and population dynamics are strongly shaped by the longevity of individuals, but life span is one of the least accessible demographic traits, particularly in clonal plants. Continuous vegetative reproduction of genets enables persistence despite low or no sexual reproduction, affecting genet turnover rates and population stability. Therefore, the longevity of clonal plants is of considerable biological interest, but remains relatively poorly known. Scope Here, we critically review the present knowledge on the longevity of clonal plants and discuss its importance for population persistence. Direct life-span measurements such as growth-ring analysis in woody plants are relatively easy to take, although, for many clonal plants, these methods are not adequate due to the variable growth pattern of ramets and difficult genet identification. Recently, indirect methods have been introduced in which genet size and annual shoot increments are used to estimate genet age. These methods, often based on molecular techniques, allow the investigation of genet size and age structure of whole populations, a crucial issue for understanding their viability and persistence. However, indirect estimates of clonal longevity are impeded because the process of ageing in clonal plants is still poorly understood and because their size and age are not always well correlated. Alternative estimators for genet life span such as somatic mutations have recently been suggested. Conclusions Empirical knowledge on the longevity of clonal species has increased considerably in the last few years. Maximum age estimates are an indicator of population persistence, but are not sufficient to evaluate turnover rates and the ability of long-lived clonal plants to enhance community stability and ecosystem resilience. In order to understand the dynamics of populations it will be necessary to measure genet size and age structure, not only life spans of single individuals, and to use such data for modelling of genet dynamics. PMID:20880935

Time to Evolve? Potential Evolutionary Responses of Fraser River Sockeye Salmon to Climate Change and Effects on Persistence

PubMed Central

Reed, Thomas E.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Hague, Merran J.; Patterson, David A.; Meir, Eli; Waples, Robin S.; Hinch, Scott G.

2011-01-01

Evolutionary adaptation affects demographic resilience to climate change but few studies have attempted to project changes in selective pressures or quantify impacts of trait responses on population dynamics and extinction risk. We used a novel individual-based model to explore potential evolutionary changes in migration timing and the consequences for population persistence in sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka in the Fraser River, Canada, under scenarios of future climate warming. Adult sockeye salmon are highly sensitive to increases in water temperature during their arduous upriver migration, raising concerns about the fate of these ecologically, culturally, and commercially important fish in a warmer future. Our results suggest that evolution of upriver migration timing could allow these salmon to avoid increasingly frequent stressful temperatures, with the odds of population persistence increasing in proportion to the trait heritability and phenotypic variance. With a simulated 2°C increase in average summer river temperatures by 2100, adult migration timing from the ocean to the river advanced by ∼10 days when the heritability was 0.5, while the risk of quasi-extinction was only 17% of that faced by populations with zero evolutionary potential (i.e., heritability fixed at zero). The rates of evolution required to maintain persistence under simulated scenarios of moderate to rapid warming are plausible based on estimated heritabilities and rates of microevolution of timing traits in salmon and related species, although further empirical work is required to assess potential genetic and ecophysiological constraints on phenological adaptation. These results highlight the benefits to salmon management of maintaining evolutionary potential within populations, in addition to conserving key habitats and minimizing additional stressors where possible, as a means to build resilience to ongoing climate change. More generally, they demonstrate the importance and feasibility of considering evolutionary processes, in addition to ecology and demography, when projecting population responses to environmental change. PMID:21738573

Population Response to Habitat Fragmentation in a Stream-Dwelling Brook Trout Population

PubMed Central

Letcher, Benjamin H.; Nislow, Keith H.; Coombs, Jason A.; O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Dubreuil, Todd L.

2007-01-01

Fragmentation can strongly influence population persistence and expression of life-history strategies in spatially-structured populations. In this study, we directly estimated size-specific dispersal, growth, and survival of stream-dwelling brook trout in a stream network with connected and naturally-isolated tributaries. We used multiple-generation, individual-based data to develop and parameterize a size-class and location-based population projection model, allowing us to test effects of fragmentation on population dynamics at local (i.e., subpopulation) and system-wide (i.e., metapopulation) scales, and to identify demographic rates which influence the persistence of isolated and fragmented populations. In the naturally-isolated tributary, persistence was associated with higher early juvenile survival (∼45% greater), shorter generation time (one-half) and strong selection against large body size compared to the open system, resulting in a stage-distribution skewed towards younger, smaller fish. Simulating barriers to upstream migration into two currently-connected tributary populations caused rapid (2–6 generations) local extinction. These local extinctions in turn increased the likelihood of system-wide extinction, as tributaries could no longer function as population sources. Extinction could be prevented in the open system if sufficient immigrants from downstream areas were available, but the influx of individuals necessary to counteract fragmentation effects was high (7–46% of the total population annually). In the absence of sufficient immigration, a demographic change (higher early survival characteristic of the isolated tributary) was also sufficient to rescue the population from fragmentation, suggesting that the observed differences in size distributions between the naturally-isolated and open system may reflect an evolutionary response to isolation. Combined with strong genetic divergence between the isolated tributary and open system, these results suggest that local adaptation can ‘rescue’ isolated populations, particularly in one-dimensional stream networks where both natural and anthropogenically-mediated isolation is common. However, whether rescue will occur before extinction depends critically on the race between adaptation and reduced survival in response to fragmentation. PMID:18188404

Population response to habitat fragmentation in a stream-dwelling brook trout population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Letcher, B.H.; Nislow, K.H.; Coombs, J.A.; O'Donnell, M. J.; Dubreuil, T.L.

2007-01-01

Fragmentation can strongly influence population persistence and expression of life-history strategies in spatially-structured populations. In this study, we directly estimated size-specific dispersal, growth, and survival of stream-dwelling brook trout in a stream network with connected and naturally-isolated tributaries. We used multiple-generation, individual-based data to develop and parameterize a size-class and location-based population projection model, allowing us to test effects of fragmentation on population dynamics at local (i.e., subpopulation) and system-wide (i.e., metapopulation) scales, and to identify demographic rates which influence the persistence of isolated and fragmented populations. In the naturally-isolated tributary, persistence was associated with higher early juvenile survival (-45% greater), shorter generation time (one-half) and strong selection against large body size compared to the open system, resulting in a stage-distribution skewed towards younger, smaller fish. Simulating barriers to upstream migration into two currently-connected tribuory populations caused rapid (2-6 generations) local extinction. These local extinctions in turn increased the likelihood of system-wide extinction, as tributaries could no longer function as population sources. Extinction could be prevented in the open system if sufficient immigrants from downstream areas were available, but the influx of individuals necessary to counteract fragmentation effects was high (7-46% of the total population annually). In the absence of sufficient immigration, a demographic change (higher early survival characteristic of the isolated tributary) was also sufficient to rescue the population from fragmentation, suggesting that the observed differences in size distributions between the naturally-isolated and open system may reflect an evolutionary response to isolation. Combined with strong genetic divergence between the isolated tributary and open system, these results suggest that local adaptation can 'rescue' isolated populations, particularly in one-dimensional stream networks where both natural and anthropegenically-mediated isolation is common. However, whether rescue will occur before extinction depends critically on the race between adaptation and reduced survival in response to fragmentation.

Cancer screening delivery in persistent poverty rural counties.

PubMed

Bennett, Kevin J; Pumkam, Chaiporn; Bellinger, Jessica D; Probst, Janice C

2011-10-01

Rural populations are diagnosed with cancer at different rate and stages than nonrural populations, and race/ethnicity as well as the area-level income exacerbates the differences. The purpose of this analysis was to explore cancer screening rates across persistent poverty rural counties, with emphasis on nonwhite populations. The 2008 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System was used, combined with data from the Area Resource File (analytic n = 309 937 unweighted, 196 344 347 weighted). Unadjusted analysis estimated screening rates for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer. Multivariate analysis estimated the odds of screening, controlling for individual and county-level effects. Rural residents, particularly those in persistent poverty counties, were less likely to be screened than urban residents. More African Americans in persistent poverty rural counties reported not having mammography screening (18.3%) compared to 15.9% of urban African Americans. Hispanics had low screening rates across all service types. Multivariate analysis continued to find disparities in screening rates, after controlling for individual and county-level factors. African Americans in persistent poverty rural counties were more likely to be screened for both breast cancer (odds ratio, 1.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.12-1.85) and cervical cancer (1.46; 1.07-1.99) when compared with urban whites. Disparities in cancer screening rates exist across not only race/ethnicity but also county type. These disparities cannot be fully explained by either individual or county-level effects. Programs have been successful in improving screening rates for African American women and should be expanded to target other vulnerable women as well as other services such as colorectal cancer screening.

Persistence or Change in Leisure-Time Physical Activity Habits and Waist Gain During Early Adulthood: A Twin-Study

PubMed Central

Rottensteiner, Mirva; Pietiläinen, Kirsi H.; Kaprio, Jaakko; Kujala, Urho M.

2014-01-01

Objective To determine the relationship between persistence or change in leisure-time physical activity habits and waist gain among young adults. Design and Methods Population-based cohort study among 3383 Finnish twin individuals (1578 men) from five birth cohorts (1975–1979), who answered questionnaires at mean ages of 24.4 y (SD 0.9) and 33.9 y (SD 1.2), with reported self-measured waist circumference. Persistence or change in leisure-time physical activity habits was defined based on thirds of activity metabolic equivalent h/day during follow-up (mean 9.5 y; SD 0.7). Results Decreased activity was linked to greater waist gain compared to increased activity (3.6 cm, P<0.001 for men; 3.1 cm, P<0.001 for women). Among same-sex activity discordant twin pairs, twins who decreased activity gained an average 2.8 cm (95%CI 0.4 to 5.1, P=0.009) more waist than their co-twins who increased activity (n=85 pairs); among MZ twin pairs (n=43), the difference was 4.2 cm (95%CI 1.2 to 7.2, P=0.008). Conclusions Among young adults, an increase in leisure-time physical activity or staying active during a decade of follow-up was associated with less waist gain, but any decrease in activity level, regardless baseline activity, led to waist gain that was similar to that associated with being persistently inactive. PMID:24839266

Environmental fate and behaviour of the biocontrol agent Bacillus amyloliquefaciens CPA-8 after preharvest application to stone fruit.

PubMed

Vilanova, Laura; Teixidó, Neus; Usall, Josep; Balsells-Llauradó, Marta; Gotor-Vila, Amparo; Torres, Rosario

2018-02-01

Bacillus amyloliquefaciens strain CPA-8 has been described as an effective biocontrol agent to control brown rot in stone fruit for both preharvest and postharvest applications. However, no information about the environmental fate and behaviour of this strain under field conditions is available. The dispersion of the CPA-8 application was evaluated using water-sensitive papers, and complete coverage was observed on the leaves of treated trees, while <1% of non-treated tree leaves had CPA-8. CPA-8 persisted on the fruit of treated trees during preharvest and postharvest conditions, while a significant decrease on leaves and weeds was observed 21 days after treatment. On non-treated trees, CPA-8 was detected on leaves until 180 days after treatment, and on weeds, the CPA-8 population was dependent on the distance from the treated trees. A high persistence of CPA-8 was detected on inert materials, such as clothes and gloves worn by handlers and plastic harvesting boxes. More than 99% of the samples with a CPA-8 phenotype were confirmed as CPA-8 using polymerase chain reaction (PCR). This work demonstrated a good distribution, persistence and adaptation of the CPA-8 strain to field and postharvest conditions. Monitoring of dispersion and persistence is an excellent tool to determine the time of application and provides valuable information for registering issues. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

Twelve-month longitudinal parasitological assessment of lymphatic filariasis-positive individuals: impact of a biannual treatment with ivermectin and albendazole.

PubMed

Kanamitie, John N; Ahorlu, Collins S; Otchere, Joseph; Aboagye-Antwi, Fred; Kwansa-Bentum, Bethel; Boakye, Daniel A; Biritwum, Nana-Kwadwo; Wilson, Michael D; de Souza, Dziedzom K

2017-11-01

Mass drug administration (MDA) for the control of lymphatic filariasis (LF), in Ghana, started in the year 2000. While this had great success in many implementation units, there remain areas with persistent transmission, after more than 10 years of treatment. A closer examination of the parasite populations could help understand the reasons for persistent infections and formulate appropriate strategies to control LF in these areas of persistent transmission. In a longitudinal study, we assessed the prevalence of microfilaraemia (mf) in two communities with 12 years of MDA in Ghana. In baseline surveys 6 months after the National MDA in 2014, 370 consenting individuals were tested for antigenaemia using immunochromatographic test (ICT) cards and had their mf count determined through night blood surveys. 48 ICT positives, of whom, 17 were positive for mf, were treated with 400 μg/kg ivermectin + 400 mg albendazole and subsequently followed for parasitological assessment at 3-month intervals for 1 year. This overlapped with the National MDA in 2015. There was a 68% parasite clearance 3 months after treatment. The pre-treatment mf count differed significantly from the post-treatment mf counts at 3 months (P = 0.0023), 6 months (P = 0.0051), 9 months (P = 0.0113) and 12 months (P = 0.0008). In these settings with persistent LF transmission, twice-yearly treatment may help accelerate LF elimination. Further large-scale evaluations are required to ascertain these findings. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Nutation of Helianthus Annuus in a microgravity environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, A. H.

1981-01-01

An experiment to gather evidence to decide between the Darwinian concept of endogenously motivated nutation and the more mechanistic concept of gravity dependent nutation is described. If nutation persists in weightlessness, parameters describing the motion will be measured by recording in time lapse mode the video images of a population of seedlings that were grown at 1-g, but which will be observed at virtual zero gravity. Later, the plant images will be displayed on a video monitor in a laboratory, photographed on 16 millimeter film, and analyzed frame by frame to determine the kinetics of nutation for each specimen tested.

Complementary Network-Based Approaches for Exploring Genetic Structure and Functional Connectivity in Two Vulnerable, Endemic Ground Squirrels

PubMed Central

Zero, Victoria H.; Barocas, Adi; Jochimsen, Denim M.; Pelletier, Agnès; Giroux-Bougard, Xavier; Trumbo, Daryl R.; Castillo, Jessica A.; Evans Mack, Diane; Linnell, Mark A.; Pigg, Rachel M.; Hoisington-Lopez, Jessica; Spear, Stephen F.; Murphy, Melanie A.; Waits, Lisette P.

2017-01-01

The persistence of small populations is influenced by genetic structure and functional connectivity. We used two network-based approaches to understand the persistence of the northern Idaho ground squirrel (Urocitellus brunneus) and the southern Idaho ground squirrel (U. endemicus), two congeners of conservation concern. These graph theoretic approaches are conventionally applied to social or transportation networks, but here are used to study population persistence and connectivity. Population graph analyses revealed that local extinction rapidly reduced connectivity for the southern species, while connectivity for the northern species could be maintained following local extinction. Results from gravity models complemented those of population graph analyses, and indicated that potential vegetation productivity and topography drove connectivity in the northern species. For the southern species, development (roads) and small-scale topography reduced connectivity, while greater potential vegetation productivity increased connectivity. Taken together, the results of the two network-based methods (population graph analyses and gravity models) suggest the need for increased conservation action for the southern species, and that management efforts have been effective at maintaining habitat quality throughout the current range of the northern species. To prevent further declines, we encourage the continuation of management efforts for the northern species, whereas conservation of the southern species requires active management and additional measures to curtail habitat fragmentation. Our combination of population graph analyses and gravity models can inform conservation strategies of other species exhibiting patchy distributions. PMID:28659969

The waterfall paradox: How knickpoints disconnect hillslope and channel processes, isolating salmonid populations in ideal habitats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

May, Christine; Roering, Josh; Snow, Kyle; Griswold, Kitty; Gresswell, Robert

2017-01-01

Waterfalls create barriers to fish migration, yet hundreds of isolated salmonid populations exist above barriers and have persisted for thousands of years in steep mountainous terrain. Ecological theory indicates that small isolated populations in disturbance-prone landscapes are at greatest risk of extirpation because immigration and recolonization are not possible. On the contrary, many above-barrier populations are currently thriving while their downstream counterparts are dwindling. This quandary led us to explore geomorphic knickpoints as a mechanism for disconnecting hillslope and channel processes by limiting channel incision and decreasing the pace of base-level lowering. Using LiDAR from the Oregon Coast Range, we found gentler channel gradients, wider valleys, lower gradient hillslopes, and less shallow landslide potential in an above-barrier catchment compared to a neighboring catchment devoid of persistent knickpoints. Based on this unique geomorphic template, above-barrier channel networks are less prone to debris flows and other episodic sediment fluxes. These above-barrier catchments also have greater resiliency to flooding, owing to wider valleys with greater floodplain connectivity. Habitat preference models further indicate that salmonid habitat is present in greater quantity and quality in these above-barrier networks. Therefore the paradox of the persistence of small isolated fish populations may be facilitated by a geomorphic mechanism that both limits their connectivity to larger fish populations yet dampens the effect of disturbance by decreasing connections between hillslope and channel processes above geomorphic knickpoints.

Complementary Network-Based Approaches for Exploring Genetic Structure and Functional Connectivity in Two Vulnerable, Endemic Ground Squirrels.

PubMed

Zero, Victoria H; Barocas, Adi; Jochimsen, Denim M; Pelletier, Agnès; Giroux-Bougard, Xavier; Trumbo, Daryl R; Castillo, Jessica A; Evans Mack, Diane; Linnell, Mark A; Pigg, Rachel M; Hoisington-Lopez, Jessica; Spear, Stephen F; Murphy, Melanie A; Waits, Lisette P

2017-01-01

The persistence of small populations is influenced by genetic structure and functional connectivity. We used two network-based approaches to understand the persistence of the northern Idaho ground squirrel ( Urocitellus brunneus) and the southern Idaho ground squirrel ( U. endemicus ), two congeners of conservation concern. These graph theoretic approaches are conventionally applied to social or transportation networks, but here are used to study population persistence and connectivity. Population graph analyses revealed that local extinction rapidly reduced connectivity for the southern species, while connectivity for the northern species could be maintained following local extinction. Results from gravity models complemented those of population graph analyses, and indicated that potential vegetation productivity and topography drove connectivity in the northern species. For the southern species, development (roads) and small-scale topography reduced connectivity, while greater potential vegetation productivity increased connectivity. Taken together, the results of the two network-based methods (population graph analyses and gravity models) suggest the need for increased conservation action for the southern species, and that management efforts have been effective at maintaining habitat quality throughout the current range of the northern species. To prevent further declines, we encourage the continuation of management efforts for the northern species, whereas conservation of the southern species requires active management and additional measures to curtail habitat fragmentation. Our combination of population graph analyses and gravity models can inform conservation strategies of other species exhibiting patchy distributions.

Is the Partners in Recovery program connecting with the intended population of people living with severe and persistent mental illness? What are their prioritised needs?

PubMed

Hancock, Nicola; Smith-Merry, Jennifer; Gillespie, James A; Yen, Ivy

2017-10-01

Objective The Partners in Recovery (PIR) program is an Australian government initiative designed to make the mental health and social care sectors work in more coordinated ways to meet the needs of those with severe and complex mental illness. Herein we reflect on demographic data collected during evaluation of PIR implementation in two Western Sydney sites. The aims of the present study were to: (1) explore whether two Sydney-based PIR programs had recruited their intended population, namely people living with severe and persistent mental illness; and (2) learn more about this relatively unknown population and their self-identified need priorities. Methods Routinely collected initial client assessment data were analysed descriptively. Results The data suggest that the two programs are engaging the intended population. The highest unmet needs identified included psychological distress, lack of daytime activities and company, poor physical health and inadequate accommodation. Some groups remain hard to connect, including people from Aboriginal and other culturally diverse communities. Conclusions The data confirm that the PIR program, at least in the two regions evaluated, is mostly reaching its intended audience. Some data were being collected inconsistently, limiting the usefulness of the data and the ability to build on PIR findings to develop ongoing support for this population. What is known about the topic? PIR is a unique national program funded to engage with and address the needs of Australians living with severe and persistent mental illness by facilitating service access. What does this paper add? This paper reports on recruitment of people living with severe and persistent mental illness, their need priorities and data collection. These are three central elements to successful roll-out of the much anticipated mental health component of the National Disability Insurance Scheme, as well as ongoing PIR operation. What are the implications for practitioners? Active recruitment, exploration of self-reported need priorities and routine outcome measurement are essential yet challenging work practices when working with people living with severe and persistent mental illness.

Value of IgA tTG in Predicting Mucosal Recovery in Children with Celiac Disease on a Gluten Free Diet

PubMed Central

Leonard, Maureen M.; Weir, Dascha C.; DeGroote, Maya; Mitchell, Paul D.; Singh, Prashant; Silvester, Jocelyn A.; Leichtner, Alan M.; Fasano, Alessio

2017-01-01

Objective Our objective was to determine the rate of mucosal recovery in pediatric patients with celiac disease on a gluten free diet. We also sought to determine whether IgA tissue transglutaminase (tTG) correlates with mucosal damage at the time of a repeat endoscopy with duodenal biopsy in these patients. Methods We performed a retrospective chart review of one-hundred and three pediatric patients, under 21 years of age, with a diagnosis of celiac disease defined as Marsh 3 histology, and who underwent a repeat endoscopy with duodenal biopsy at least twelve months after initiating a gluten free diet. Results We found that 19% of pediatric patients treated with a gluten free diet had persistent enteropathy. At the time of the repeat biopsy, tTG was elevated in 43% of cases with persistent enteropathy and 32% of cases in which there was mucosal recovery. Overall the positive predictive value of the autoantibody tissue transglutaminase was 25% and the negative predictive value was 83% in patients on a gluten free diet for a median of 2.4 years. Conclusions Nearly one in five children with celiac disease in our population had persistent enteropathy despite maintaining a gluten free diet and IgA tTG was not an accurate marker of mucosal recovery. Neither the presence of symptoms nor positive serology were predictive of a patient’s histology at the time of repeat biopsy. These findings suggest a revisitation of monitoring and management criteria of celiac disease in childhood. PMID:28112686

Evaluation of inflammatory markers interleukin-6 (IL-6) and matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9) in asthma.

PubMed

Naik, Srilata Puru; P A, Mahesh; B S, Jayaraj; Madhunapantula, SubbaRao V; Jahromi, Sarah Raeiszadeh; Yadav, Manish Kumar

2017-08-01

Even though IL-6 and MMP-9 are associated with airway inflammation in asthma, there is paucity of data in Indian population. To determine the levels of IL-6 and MMP-9 in the serum of patients suffering from asthma, and correlate with (a) disease severity, as per GINA guidelines; (b) clinical phenotypes; and (c) response to treatment. The levels of IL-6 and MMP-9 were compared between moderate persistent asthma (n = 25), severe persistent asthma (n = 25) and normal controls (n = 30). IL-6 and MMP-9 were measured by ELISA (R&D Systems Inc., USA and Canada) and compared between controls and asthmatics and between groups of different asthma severity, clinical variables, spirometry, and allergen sensitization. Spirometry was repeated after 2 months of ICS+LABA to assess response to treatment in relation to baseline IL-6 and MMP-9 levels. We observed a significant difference in both IL-6 and MMP-9 levels among asthmatics versus controls (p < 0.001), moderate versus severe persistent asthma (p < 0.001). A significant negative correlation was observed between MMP-9 and pre-bronchodilator FEV 1 and FVC, but not with IL-6. There was no association between IL-6 and MMP-9 with asthma duration, total IgE, AEC, number of allergens sensitized and degree of sensitization. No significant correlation (p > 0.5) was observed with IL-6 and MMP-9 levels and FEV 1 improvement after 2 months of ICS+LABA. Higher levels of IL-6 and MMP-9 were observed in asthmatics as compared to controls and in severe persistent asthma as compared to moderate persistent asthma, higher levels of MMP-9 was associated with lower lung functions.

Persistent Food Allergy and Food Allergy Coexistent with Eczema Is Associated with Reduced Growth in the First 4 Years of Life.

PubMed

Beck, Cara; Koplin, Jennifer; Dharmage, Shyamali; Wake, Melissa; Gurrin, Lyle; McWilliam, Vicki; Tang, Mimi; Sun, Cong; Foskey, Rebecca; Allen, Katrina J

2016-01-01

Food allergy has been associated with lower weight and height in cross-sectional studies in children; however, this has not been investigated in longitudinal studies to explore growth over time, and previous studies have not accounted for coexisting eczema. The objective of this study was to examine the association of IgE-mediated food allergy and eczema with anthropometric measures at 1 and 4 years of age. In the HealthNuts population-based cohort, infants recruited at age 1 year underwent a skin prick test to egg, peanut, and sesame; those sensitized had oral food challenges. Food challenges repeated at 4 years determined food allergy persistence or resolution. Eczema was defined as parent report of eczema diagnosis. Parent-reported weight and height and child health record data were used to calculate age- and sex-adjusted percentiles from World Health Organization charts. Multivariable linear regression models were fitted to examine the effect of food allergy and eczema on weight and height controlling for potential confounders. Children with both food allergy and eczema at age 1 had lower percentiles for mean weight (51.3 vs 58.3 percentile, P = .001) and height (48.4 vs 53.4, P = .028) at age 1 compared with those with neither condition. There was no difference for children with only food allergy or eczema at age 1. By age 4, children with persistent food allergy and persistent eczema, but not those with resolved food allergy, were still shorter and lighter. Children with both food allergy and eczema were shorter and lighter throughout early childhood, with more pronounced differences in those with persistent food allergy. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exposure to non-persistent pesticides and thyroid function: A systematic review of epidemiological evidence.

PubMed

Campos, Élida; Freire, Carmen

2016-08-01

Numerous pesticides are recognized for their endocrine-disrupting properties. Non-persistent pesticides such as organophosphates, dithiocarbamates and pyrethroids may interfere with thyroid function as suggested by animal studies. However, the influence of chronic exposure to these compounds on thyroidal functions in humans remains to be determined. The present study aimed to review epidemiological evidence for an association between exposure to non-persistent pesticides and circulating levels of thyroid hormones (thyroxin [T4] and triiodothyronine [T3]) and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH). A systematic review was conducted using MEDLINE, SCOPUS and Virtual Health Library (BVS) databases. Articles were limited to original studies and reports published in English, Portuguese or Spanish. Nineteen epidemiological studies were identified, 17 of which were cross-sectional, 14 were of occupationally exposed workers and 11 used exposure biomarkers. Fungicides and organophosphates (OP) insecticides were the most studied pesticides. Although methodological heterogeneity between studies was noted, particularly regarding study design, exposure assessment, and control of confounding, most of them showed associations with changes in T3 and T4, and/or TSH levels, while results from a few of these are consistent with experimental data supporting the findings that non-persistent pesticide exposure exerts hypothyroid-like effects. However, reporting quality was moderate to poor in 50% of the studies, particularly regarding method of selection of participants and discussion of external validity. Overall, current knowledge regarding the impact of non-persistent pesticides on human thyroid function is still limited. Given the widespread use of pesticides, future research should assess effects of exposure to currently-used pesticides in cohort studies combining comprehensive questionnaire-based assessment and biomarkers. Investigators need to pay particular attention to exposure during critical windows of brain development and exposure in agricultural populations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Blunted HPA axis response to stress is related to a persistent dysregulation profile in youth

PubMed Central

Greaves-Lord, Kirstin; Althoff, Robert R.; Hudziak, James J.; Dieleman, Gwendolyn C.; Verhulst, Frank C.; van der Ende, Jan

2013-01-01

The Child Behavior Checklist Dysregulation Profile (DP) in youth has been shown to be a predictor of psychopathology later in life. We examined the activity of the Hypothalamic Pituitary Adrenal (HPA) axis in youth with remitted, new, persistent, and no DP. Data from 489 youth (47% boys) participating in a Dutch longitudinal general population study were included (Wave 1 mean age=11.5, Wave 2=14.2). Wave 2 diurnal cortisol patterns and levels in response to a laboratory stress paradigm were compared in youth with DP at Wave 1 only, Wave 2 only, both Waves, and neither Wave. Youth with the DP at Wave 2 only or at both time points showed blunted cortisol responses to stress relative to the other two groups. There were no group or sex differences in diurnal cortisol activity. More research is needed to determine how the association between DP symptoms and HPA axis functioning changes over time. PMID:23603315

Paper birch: Sentinels of climate change in the Niobrara River Valley, Nebraska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stroh, Esther D.

2011-01-01

The Niobrara River Valley in the northern Great Plains supports scattered stands of paper birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh), a species more typical of boreal forests. These birch stands are considered to be relictual populations that have persisted since the end of the Wisconsin glaciation. Localized summer microclimates have likely facilitated the persistence of birch populations in a region otherwise unsuitable for the species. Dieback of canopy-sized birch has been observed throughout the valley in recent years, although no onset dates are documented. Changes in spring weather patterns may be causing rootlet injury so that trees die in spite of the still-cool summer microclimates. Current weather patterns, combined with little evidence of recruitment of young birch and great geographic distances from potential immigrant sources, make the future persistence of birch in the Niobrara River Valley stands uncertain.

A spatial risk assessment of bighorn sheep extirpation by grazing domestic sheep on public lands.

PubMed

Carpenter, Tim E; Coggins, Victor L; McCarthy, Clinton; O'Brien, Chans S; O'Brien, Joshua M; Schommer, Timothy J

2014-04-01

Bighorn sheep currently occupy just 30% of their historic distribution, and persist in populations less than 5% as abundant overall as their early 19th century counterparts. Present-day recovery of bighorn sheep populations is in large part limited by periodic outbreaks of respiratory disease, which can be transmitted to bighorn sheep via contact with domestic sheep grazing in their vicinity. In order to assess the viability of bighorn sheep populations on the Payette National Forest (PNF) under several alternative proposals for domestic sheep grazing, we developed a series of interlinked models. Using telemetry and habitat data, we characterized herd home ranges and foray movements of bighorn sheep from their home ranges. Combining foray model movement estimates with known domestic sheep grazing areas (allotments), a Risk of Contact Model estimated bighorn sheep contact rates with domestic sheep allotments. Finally, we used demographic and epidemiologic data to construct population and disease transmission models (Disease Model), which we used to estimate bighorn sheep persistence under each alternative grazing scenario. Depending on the probability of disease transmission following interspecies contact, extirpation probabilities for the seven bighorn sheep herds examined here ranged from 20% to 100%. The Disease Model allowed us to assess the probabilities that varied domestic sheep management scenarios would support persistent populations of free-ranging bighorn sheep. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cough in the Elderly Population: Relationships with Multiple Comorbidity

PubMed Central

Song, Woo-Jung; Morice, Alyn H.; Kim, Min-Hye; Lee, Seung-Eun; Jo, Eun-Jung; Lee, Sang-Min; Han, Ji-Won; Kim, Tae Hui; Kim, Sae-Hoon; Jang, Hak-Chul; Kim, Ki Woong; Cho, Sang-Heon; Min, Kyung-Up; Chang, Yoon-Seok

2013-01-01

Background The epidemiology of cough in the elderly population has not been studied comprehensively. The present study aimed to investigate the epidemiology of cough in a community elderly population, particularly in relation with their comorbidity. Methods A cross-sectional analysis was performed using a baseline dataset from the Korean Longitudinal Study on Health and Aging, a community-based elderly population cohort study. Three types of cough (frequent cough, chronic persistent cough, and nocturnal cough) were defined using questionnaires. Comorbidity was examined using a structured questionnaire. Health-related quality of life was assessed using the Short Form 36 questionnaire. Results The prevalence was 9.3% for frequent cough, 4.6% for chronic persistent cough, and 7.3% for nocturnal cough. In multivariate logistic regression analyses, smoking, asthma and allergic rhinitis were found to be risk factors for cough in the elderly. Interestingly, among comorbidities, constipation and uncontrolled diabetes mellitus (HbA1c ≥ 8%) were also found to have positive associations with elderly cough. In the Short Form 36 scores, chronic persistent cough was independently related to impairment of quality of life, predominantly in the mental component. Conclusions Cough has a high prevalence and is detrimental to quality of life in the elderly. Associations with smoking, asthma and rhinitis confirmed previous findings in younger populations. Previously unrecognised relationships with constipation and uncontrolled diabetes mellitus suggested the multi-faceted nature of cough in the elderly. PMID:24205100

Strong self-limitation promotes the persistence of rare species.

PubMed

Yenni, Glenda; Adler, Peter B; Ernest, S K Morgan

2012-03-01

Theory has recognized a combination of niche and neutral processes each contributing, with varying importance, to species coexistence. However, long-term persistence of rare species has been difficult to produce in trait-based models of coexistence that incorporate stochastic dynamics, raising questions about how rare species persist despite such variability. Following recent evidence that rare species may experience significantly different population dynamics than dominant species, we use a plant community model to simulate the effect of disproportionately strong negative frequency dependence on the long-term persistence of the rare species in a simulated community. This strong self-limitation produces long persistence times for the rare competitors, which otherwise succumb quickly to stochastic extinction. The results suggest that the mechanism causing species to be rare in this case is the same mechanism allowing those species to persist.

Persistent Distress after Water Contamination.

PubMed

Schade, Charles P; Gupta, Rahul; Jha, Ayan; Wright, Nasandra

2016-01-01

A chemical spill contaminated the public water supply of Charleston, West Virginia in January 2014 for at least a week. Psychological distress is common after disasters. We surveyed the exposed population to assess psychological distress during and three months after the incident. We inquired about stressors that might predict distress, adequacy of communication from public officials, and use of the water supply and perceptions of its safety three months after the incident. Twenty six percent of interviewees had persistent symptoms of distress. Female sex, negative household experiences during the episode (especially having someone sick), and poor perception of communication increased odds of persistent distress. Households of respondents without persistent distress were significantly more likely to report drinking tap water (RR=1.95) than those with persistent distress. Distress in Charleston area residents persisted and may have resulted in continuing mistrust of the water supply.

Variability in primary productivity determines metapopulation dynamics

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Temporal variability in primary productivity can change habitat quality for consumer species by affecting the energy levels available as food resources. However, it remains unclear how habitat-quality fluctuations may determine the dynamics of spatially structured populations, where the effects of habitat size, quality and isolation have been customarily assessed assuming static habitats. We present the first empirical evaluation on the effects of stochastic fluctuations in primary productivity—a major outcome of ecosystem functions—on the metapopulation dynamics of a primary consumer. A unique 13-year dataset from an herbivore rodent was used to test the hypothesis that inter-annual variations in primary productivity determine spatiotemporal habitat occupancy patterns and colonization and extinction processes. Inter-annual variability in productivity and in the growing season phenology significantly influenced habitat colonization patterns and occupancy dynamics. These effects lead to changes in connectivity to other potentially occupied habitat patches, which then feed back into occupancy dynamics. According to the results, the dynamics of primary productivity accounted for more than 50% of the variation in occupancy probability, depending on patch size and landscape configuration. Evidence connecting primary productivity dynamics and spatiotemporal population processes has broad implications for metapopulation persistence in fluctuating and changing environments. PMID:27053739

Variability in primary productivity determines metapopulation dynamics.

PubMed

Fernández, Néstor; Román, Jacinto; Delibes, Miguel

2016-04-13

Temporal variability in primary productivity can change habitat quality for consumer species by affecting the energy levels available as food resources. However, it remains unclear how habitat-quality fluctuations may determine the dynamics of spatially structured populations, where the effects of habitat size, quality and isolation have been customarily assessed assuming static habitats. We present the first empirical evaluation on the effects of stochastic fluctuations in primary productivity--a major outcome of ecosystem functions--on the metapopulation dynamics of a primary consumer. A unique 13-year dataset from an herbivore rodent was used to test the hypothesis that inter-annual variations in primary productivity determine spatiotemporal habitat occupancy patterns and colonization and extinction processes. Inter-annual variability in productivity and in the growing season phenology significantly influenced habitat colonization patterns and occupancy dynamics. These effects lead to changes in connectivity to other potentially occupied habitat patches, which then feed back into occupancy dynamics. According to the results, the dynamics of primary productivity accounted for more than 50% of the variation in occupancy probability, depending on patch size and landscape configuration. Evidence connecting primary productivity dynamics and spatiotemporal population processes has broad implications for metapopulation persistence in fluctuating and changing environments. © 2016 The Authors.

Survival of Burkholderia pseudomallei on Environmental Surfaces.

PubMed

Shams, Alicia M; Rose, Laura J; Hodges, Lisa; Arduino, Matthew J

2007-12-01

The survival of the biothreat agent Burkholderia pseudomallei on the surfaces of four materials was measured by culture and esterase activity analyses. The culture results demonstrated that this organism persisted for <24 h to <7 days depending on the material, bacterial isolate, and suspension medium. The persistence determined by analysis of esterase activity, as measured with a ScanRDI solid-phase cytometer, was always longer than the persistence determined by culture analysis.

Metapopulation modelling of riparian tree species persistence in river networks under climate change.

PubMed

Van Looy, Kris; Piffady, Jérémy

2017-11-01

Floodplain landscapes are highly fragmented by river regulation resulting in habitat degradation and flood regime perturbation, posing risks to population persistence. Climate change is expected to pose supplementary risks in this context of fragmented landscapes, and especially for river systems adaptation management programs are developed. The association of habitat quality and quantity with the landscape dynamics and resilience to human-induced disturbances is still poorly understood in the context of species survival and colonization processes, but essential to prioritize conservation and restoration actions. We present a modelling approach that elucidates network connectivity and landscape dynamics in spatial and temporal context to identify vital corridors and conservation priorities in the Loire river and its tributaries. Alteration of flooding and flow regimes is believed to be critical to population dynamics in river ecosystems. Still, little is known of critical levels of alteration both spatially and temporally. We applied metapopulation modelling approaches for a dispersal-limited tree species, white elm; and a recruitment-limited tree species, black poplar. In different model steps the connectivity and natural dynamics of the river landscape are confronted with physical alterations (dams/dykes) to species survival and then future scenarios for climatic changes and potential adaptation measures are entered in the model and translated in population persistence over the river basin. For the two tree species we highlighted crucial network zones in relation to habitat quality and connectivity. Where the human impact model already shows currently restricted metapopulation development, climate change is projected to aggravate this persistence perspective substantially. For both species a significant drawback to the basin population is observed, with 1/3 for elm and ¼ for poplar after 25 years already. But proposed adaptation measures prove effective to even bring metapopulation strength and persistence up to a level above the current level. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Persistence of Animal and Human Glycopeptide-Resistant Enterococci on Two Norwegian Poultry Farms Formerly Exposed to Avoparcin Is Associated with a Widespread Plasmid-Mediated vanA Element within a Polyclonal Enterococcus faecium Population

PubMed Central

Johnsen, P. J.; Østerhus, J. I.; Sletvold, H.; Sørum, M.; Kruse, H.; Nielsen, K.; Simonsen, G. S.; Sundsfjord, A.

2005-01-01

The evolutionary processes responsible for the long-term persistence of glycopeptide-resistant Enterococcus faecium (GREF) in nonselective environments were addressed by genetic analyses of E. faecium populations in animals and humans on two Norwegian poultry farms that were previously exposed to avoparcin. A total of 222 fecal GREF (n = 136) and glycopeptide-susceptible (n = 86) E. faecium (GSEF) isolates were obtained from farmers and poultry on three separate occasions in 1998 and 1999. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and plasmid DNA analyses discerned 22 GREF and 32 GSEF PFGE types within shifting polyclonal animal and human E. faecium populations and indicated the presence of transferable plasmid-mediated vanA resistance, respectively. Examples of dominant, persistent GREF PFGE types supported the notion that environmentally well-adapted GREF types may counteract the reversal of resistance. PFGE analyses, sequencing of the purK housekeeping gene, and partial typing of vanA-containing Tn1546 suggested a common animal and human reservoir of glycopeptide resistance. Inverse PCR amplification and sequence analyses targeting the right end of the Tn1546-plasmid junction fragment strongly indicated the presence of a common single Tn1546-plasmid-mediated element in 20 of 22 GREF PFGE types. This observation was further strengthened by vanY-vanZ hybridization analyses of plasmid DNAs as well as the finding of a physical linkage between Tn1546 and a putative postsegregation killing system for seven GREF PFGE types. In conclusion, our observations suggest that the molecular unit of persistence of glycopeptide resistance is a common mobile plasmid-mediated vanA-containing element within a polyclonal GREF population that changes over time. In addition, we propose that “plasmid addiction systems” may contribute to the persistence of GREF in nonselective environments. PMID:15640183

Population maintenance among tropical reef fishes: Inferences from small-island endemics

PubMed Central

Robertson, D. Ross

2001-01-01

To what extent do local populations of tropical reef fishes persist through the recruitment of pelagic larvae to their natal reef? Endemics from small, isolated islands can help answer that question by indicating whether special biological attributes are needed for long-term survival under enforced localization in high-risk situations. Taxonomically and biologically, the endemics from seven such islands are broadly representative of their regional faunas. As natal-site recruitment occurs among reef fishes in much less isolated situations, these characteristics of island endemics indicate that a wide range of reef fishes could have persistent self-sustaining local populations. Because small islands regularly support substantial reef fish faunas, regional systems of small reserves could preserve much of the diversity of these fishes. PMID:11331752

The effect of area size and predation on the time to extinction of prairie vole populations. simulation studies via SERDYCA: a Spatially-Explicit Individual-Based Model of Rodent Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kostova, T; Carlsen, T

2003-11-21

We present a spatially-explicit individual-based computational model of rodent dynamics, customized for the prairie vole species, M. Ochrogaster. The model is based on trophic relationships and represents important features such as territorial competition, mating behavior, density-dependent predation and dispersal out of the modeled spatial region. Vegetation growth and vole fecundity are dependent on climatic components. The results of simulations show that the model correctly predicts the overall temporal dynamics of the population density. Time-series analysis shows a very good match between the periods corresponding to the peak population density frequencies predicted by the model and the ones reported in themore » literature. The model is used to study the relation between persistence, landscape area and predation. We introduce the notions of average time to extinction (ATE) and persistence frequency to quantify persistence. While the ATE decreases with decrease of area, it is a bell-shaped function of the predation level: increasing for 'small' and decreasing for 'large' predation levels.« less

Physical and chemical control of released microorganisms at field sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Donegan, K.; Seidler, R.; Matyac, C.

1991-01-01

An important consideration in the environmental release of a genetically engineered microorganism (GEM) is the capability for reduction or elimination of GEM populations once their function is completed or if adverse environmental effects are observed. The decontamination treatments of burning and biocide application, alone and in combination with tilling, were evaluated for their ability to reduce populations of bacteria released on the phylloplane. Field plots of bush beans sprayed with the bacterium Erwinia herbicola, received the following treatments: (1) control, (2) control + till, (3) burn, (4) burn + till, (5) Kocide (cupric hydroxide), (6) Kocide + till, (7) Agri-strepmore » (streptomycin sulfate), and (8) Agri-strept + till. Leaves and soil from the plots were sampled -1, 1, 5, 8, 12, 15, 19, and 27 days after application of the decontamination treatments. Burning produced a significant and persistent reduction in the number of bacteria whereas tilling, alone or in combination with the biocide treatments, stimulated a significant and persistent reduction in the number of bacteria, whereas tilling, alone or in combination with the biocide treatments, stimulated a significant increase in bacterial populations that persisted for several weeks.« less

Fertile fathoms: Deep reproductive refugia for threatened shallow corals

PubMed Central

Holstein, Daniel M.; Smith, Tyler B.; Gyory, Joanna; Paris, Claire B.

2015-01-01

The persistence of natural metapopulations may depend on subpopulations that exist at the edges of species ranges, removed from anthropogenic stress. Mesophotic coral ecosystems (30–150 m) are buffered from disturbance by depth and distance, and are potentially massive reservoirs of coral diversity and fecundity; yet we know little about the reproductive capabilities of their constituent species and the potential for these marginal environments to influence patterns of coral reef persistence. We investigated the reproductive performance of the threatened depth-generalist coral Orbicella faveolata over the extent of its vertical range to assess mesophotic contributions to regional larval pools. Over equal habitat area, mesophotic coral populations were found to produce over an order of magnitude more eggs than nearby shallow populations. Positive changes with depth in both population abundance and polyp fecundity contributed to this discrepancy. Relative larval pool contributions of deeper living corals will likely increase as shallow habitats further degrade due to climate change and local habitat degradation. This is a compelling example of the potential for marginal habitat to be critical to metapopulation persistence as reproductive refugia. PMID:26196243

[Population trends in Albania].

PubMed

Sivignon, M

1983-01-01

Recent demographic trends in Albania are reviewed. The author notes that rapid population growth persists due to continuing fertility, although the fertility rate has begun to decline during the past 20 years. Controls placed on internal migration have succeeded in restricting the growth of the urban population and have contributed to the sustained growth of the population in rural areas. (summary in ENG)

Environmental Persistence Influences Infection Dynamics for a Butterfly Pathogen

PubMed Central

Altizer, Sonia; Williams, Mary-Kate; Hall, Richard J.

2017-01-01

Many pathogens, including those infecting insects, are transmitted via dormant stages shed into the environment, where they must persist until encountering a susceptible host. Understanding how abiotic conditions influence environmental persistence and how these factors influence pathogen spread are crucial for predicting patterns of infection risk. Here, we explored the consequences of environmental transmission for infection dynamics of a debilitating protozoan parasite (Ophryocystis elektroscirrha) that infects monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus). We first conducted an experiment to observe the persistence of protozoan spores exposed to natural conditions. Experimental results showed that, contrary to our expectations, pathogen doses maintained high infectivity even after 16 days in the environment, although pathogens did yield infections with lower parasite loads after environmental exposure. Because pathogen longevity exceeded the time span of our experiment, we developed a mechanistic model to better explore environmental persistence for this host-pathogen system. Model analysis showed that, in general, longer spore persistence led to higher infection prevalence and slightly smaller monarch population sizes. The model indicated that typical parasite doses shed onto milkweed plants must remain viable for a minimum of 3 weeks for prevalence to increase during the summer-breeding season, and for 11 weeks or longer to match levels of infection commonly reported from the wild, assuming moderate values for parasite shedding rate. Our findings showed that transmission stages of this butterfly pathogen are long-lived and indicated that this is a necessary condition for the protozoan to persist in local monarch populations. This study provides a modeling framework for future work examining the dynamics of an ecologically important pathogen in an iconic insect. PMID:28099501

33 CFR Appendix C to Part 154 - Guidelines for Determining and Evaluating Required Response Resources for Facility Response Plans

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

...(s) for the type of oil handled, stored, or transported at the facility (non-persistent (Group I) or... oil handled, stored, or transported at the facility (non-persistent (Group I) or persistent (Groups II... Factors for Petroleum Oil Groups Non-Persistent Oil: Group I 1.0 Persistent Oil: Group II 1.8 Group III 2...

33 CFR Appendix C to Part 154 - Guidelines for Determining and Evaluating Required Response Resources for Facility Response Plans

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

...(s) for the type of oil handled, stored, or transported at the facility (non-persistent (Group I) or... oil handled, stored, or transported at the facility (non-persistent (Group I) or persistent (Groups II... Factors for Petroleum Oil Groups Non-Persistent Oil: Group I 1.0 Persistent Oil: Group II 1.8 Group III 2...

33 CFR Appendix C to Part 154 - Guidelines for Determining and Evaluating Required Response Resources for Facility Response Plans

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

...(s) for the type of oil handled, stored, or transported at the facility (non-persistent (Group I) or... oil handled, stored, or transported at the facility (non-persistent (Group I) or persistent (Groups II... Factors for Petroleum Oil Groups Non-Persistent Oil: Group I 1.0 Persistent Oil: Group II 1.8 Group III 2...

Influence of environmental factors on college alcohol drinking patterns.

PubMed

Bani, Ridouan; Hameed, Rasheed; Szymanowski, Steve; Greenwood, Priscilla; Kribs-Zaleta, Christopher M; Mubayi, Anuj

2013-01-01

Alcohol abuse is a major problem, especially among students on and around college campuses. We use the mathematical framework of [16] and study the role of environmental factors on the long term dynamics of an alcohol drinking population. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are carried out on the relevant functions (for example, on the drinking reproduction number and the extinction time of moderate and heavy drinking because of interventions) to understand the impact of environmental interventions on the distributions of drinkers. The reproduction number helps determine whether or not the high-risk alcohol drinking behavior will spread and become persistent in the population, whereas extinction time of high-risk drinking measures the effectiveness of control programs. We found that the reproduction number is most sensitive to social interactions, while the time to extinction of high-risk drinkers is significantly sensitive to the intervention programs that reduce initiation, and the college drop-out rate. The results also suggest that in a population, higher rates of intervention programs in low-risk environments (more than intervention rates in high-risk environments) are needed to reduce heavy drinking in the population.

Genetic Architecture of Conspicuous Red Ornaments in Female Threespine Stickleback

PubMed Central

Yong, Lengxob; Peichel, Catherine L.; McKinnon, Jeffrey S.

2015-01-01

Explaining the presence of conspicuous female ornaments that take the form of male-typical traits has been a longstanding challenge in evolutionary biology. Such female ornaments have been proposed to evolve via both adaptive and nonadaptive evolutionary processes. Determining the genetic underpinnings of female ornaments is important for elucidating the mechanisms by which such female traits arise and persist in natural populations, but detailed information about their genetic basis is still scarce. In this study, we investigated the genetic architecture of two ornaments, the orange-red throat and pelvic spine, in the threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). Throat coloration is male-specific in ancestral marine populations but has evolved in females in some derived stream populations, whereas sexual dimorphism in pelvic spine coloration is variable among populations. We find that ornaments share a common genetic architecture between the sexes. At least three independent genomic regions contribute to red throat coloration, and harbor candidate genes related to pigment production and pigment cell differentiation. One of these regions is also associated with spine coloration, indicating that both ornaments might be mediated partly via pleiotropic genetic mechanisms. PMID:26715094

Effects of experimental removal of barred owls on population demography of northern spotted owls in Washington and Oregon—2015 progress report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiens, J. David; Dugger, Katie M.; Lewicki, Krista E.; Simon, David C.

2016-03-14

Evidence indicates that competition with newly established barred owls (Strix varia) is causing rapid declines in populations of northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina), and that the longterm persistence of spotted owls may be in question without additional management intervention. A pilot study in California showed that lethal removal of barred owls in combination with habitat conservation may be able to slow or even reverse population declines of spotted owls at local scales, but it remains unknown whether similar results can be obtained in larger areas with different forest conditions and where barred owls are more abundant. In 2015, we implemented a before-after-controlimpact (BACI) experimental design on two study areas in Oregon and Washington with at least 20 years of pre-treatment demographic data on spotted owls to determine if removal of barred owls can improve population trends of spatially associated spotted owls. Here we provide an overview of our research accomplishments and preliminary results in Oregon and Washington in 2015.

Effects of experimental removal of barred owls on population demography of northern spotted owls in Washington and Oregon—2016 progress report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiens, J. David; Dugger, Katie M.; Lewicki, Krista E.; Simon, David C.

2017-04-13

Evidence indicates that competition with invasive barred owls (Strix varia) is causing rapid declines in populations of northern spotted owls (S. occidentalis caurina), and that the long-term persistence of spotted owls may be in question without additional management intervention. A pilot study in California showed that removal of barred owls in combination with habitat conservation may be able to slow or even reverse population declines of spotted owls at local scales, but it remains unknown whether similar results can be obtained in areas with different forest conditions and a greater density of barred owls. In 2015, we implemented a before-after-control-impact (BACI) experimental design on three study areas in Oregon and Washington with at least 20 years of pre-treatment demographic data on spotted owls to determine if removal of barred owls can improve localized population trends of spotted owls. Here, we report on research accomplishments and preliminary results from the first 21 months (March 2015–December 2016) of the planned 5-year experiment.

Effect of low concentrations of dihydrostreptomycin on drug resistance in enteric bacteria.

PubMed

Gaines, S A; Rollins, L D; Silver, R P; Washington, M

1978-08-01

Beagle dogs were fed a diet containing 0, 2, or 10 mug of dihydrostreptomycin (DSM) per g of feed. The 2-mug/g level was selected to represent a residue level of the antibiotic. In both treatment groups, medicated feed resulted in a shift from a predominantly streptomycin (SM)-susceptible coliform fecal population to an SM-resistant population. The proportion of resistant organisms was significant (P < 0.01) for both treatment groups. A definitive response did not occur with animals maintained on DSM-free diets. An increase in the prevalence of DSM-resistant organisms was observed after 15 days of DSM-supplemented feeding and persisted during the posttreatment phase of the study. The predominant pattern of resistance was SM-sulfamethoxypyridazine. Fifty-nine percent of SM-resistant strains transferred resistant determinants by conjugation to Escherichia coli K-12 recipients.

Nitric oxide-dependent killing of aerobic, anaerobic and persistent Burkholderia pseudomallei

PubMed Central

Jones-Carson, Jessica; Laughlin, James R.; Stewart, Amanda L.; Voskuil, Martin I.; Vázquez-Torres, Andrés

2012-01-01

Burkholderia pseudomallei infections are fastidious to treat with conventional antibiotic therapy, often involving a combination of drugs and long-term regimes. Bacterial genetic determinants contribute to the resistance of B. pseudomallei to many classes of antibiotics. In addition, anaerobiosis and hypoxia in abscesses typical of melioidosis select for persistent populations of B. pseudomallei refractory to a broad spectrum of antibacterials. We tested the susceptibility of B. pseudomallei to the drugs hydroxyurea, spermine NONOate and DETA NONOate that release nitric oxide (NO). Our investigations indicate that B. pseudomallei are killed by NO in a concentration and time-dependent fashion. The cytoxicity of this diatomic radical against B. pseudomallei depends on both the culture medium and growth phase of the bacteria. Rapidly growing, but not stationary phase, B. pseudomallei are readily killed upon exposure to the NO donor spermine NONOate. NO also has excellent antimicrobial activity against anaerobic B. pseudomallei. In addition, persistent bacteria highly resistant to most conventional antibiotics are remarkably susceptible to NO. Sublethal concentrations of NO inhibited the enzymatic activity of [4Fe-4S]-cofactored aconitase of aerobic and anaerobic B. pseudomallei. The strong anti-B. pseudomallei activity of NO described herein merits further studies on the application of NO-based antibiotics for the treatment of melioidosis. PMID:22521523

Nitric oxide-dependent killing of aerobic, anaerobic and persistent Burkholderia pseudomallei.

PubMed

Jones-Carson, Jessica; Laughlin, James R; Stewart, Amanda L; Voskuil, Martin I; Vázquez-Torres, Andrés

2012-06-30

Burkholderia pseudomallei infections are fastidious to treat with conventional antibiotic therapy, often involving a combination of drugs and long-term regimes. Bacterial genetic determinants contribute to the resistance of B. pseudomallei to many classes of antibiotics. In addition, anaerobiosis and hypoxia in abscesses typical of melioidosis select for persistent populations of B. pseudomallei refractory to a broad spectrum of antibacterials. We tested the susceptibility of B. pseudomallei to the drugs hydroxyurea, spermine NONOate and DETA NONOate that release nitric oxide (NO). Our investigations indicate that B. pseudomallei are killed by NO in a concentration and time-dependent fashion. The cytoxicity of this diatomic radical against B. pseudomallei depends on both the culture medium and growth phase of the bacteria. Rapidly growing, but not stationary phase, B. pseudomallei are readily killed upon exposure to the NO donor spermine NONOate. NO also has excellent antimicrobial activity against anaerobic B. pseudomallei. In addition, persistent bacteria highly resistant to most conventional antibiotics are remarkably susceptible to NO. Sublethal concentrations of NO inhibited the enzymatic activity of [4Fe-4S]-cofactored aconitase of aerobic and anaerobic B. pseudomallei. The strong anti-B. pseudomallei activity of NO described herein merits further studies on the application of NO-based antibiotics for the treatment of melioidosis. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Coxsackievirus B4 Can Infect Human Peripheral Blood-Derived Macrophages

PubMed Central

Alidjinou, Enagnon Kazali; Sané, Famara; Trauet, Jacques; Copin, Marie-Christine; Hober, Didier

2015-01-01

Beyond acute infections, group B coxsackieviruses (CVB) are also reported to play a role in the development of chronic diseases, like type 1 diabetes. The viral pathogenesis mainly relies on the interplay between the viruses and innate immune response in genetically-susceptible individuals. We investigated the interaction between CVB4 and macrophages considered as major players in immune response. Monocyte-derived macrophages (MDM) generated with either M-CSF or GM-CSF were inoculated with CVB4, and infection, inflammation, viral replication and persistence were assessed. M-CSF-induced MDM, but not GM-CSF-induced MDM, can be infected by CVB4. In addition, enhancing serum was not needed to infect MDM in contrast with parental monocytes. The expression of viral receptor (CAR) mRNA was similar in both M-CSF and GM-CSF MDM. CVB4 induced high levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-6 and TNFα) in both MDM populations. CVB4 effectively replicated and persisted in M-CSF MDM, but IFNα was produced in the early phase of infection only. Our results demonstrate that CVB4 can replicate and persist in MDM. Further investigations are required to determine whether the interaction between the virus and MDM plays a role in the pathogenesis of CVB-induced chronic diseases. PMID:26610550

Coxsackievirus B4 Can Infect Human Peripheral Blood-Derived Macrophages.

PubMed

Alidjinou, Enagnon Kazali; Sané, Famara; Trauet, Jacques; Copin, Marie-Christine; Hober, Didier

2015-11-24

Beyond acute infections, group B coxsackieviruses (CVB) are also reported to play a role in the development of chronic diseases, like type 1 diabetes. The viral pathogenesis mainly relies on the interplay between the viruses and innate immune response in genetically-susceptible individuals. We investigated the interaction between CVB4 and macrophages considered as major players in immune response. Monocyte-derived macrophages (MDM) generated with either M-CSF or GM-CSF were inoculated with CVB4, and infection, inflammation, viral replication and persistence were assessed. M-CSF-induced MDM, but not GM-CSF-induced MDM, can be infected by CVB4. In addition, enhancing serum was not needed to infect MDM in contrast with parental monocytes. The expression of viral receptor (CAR) mRNA was similar in both M-CSF and GM-CSF MDM. CVB4 induced high levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-6 and TNFα) in both MDM populations. CVB4 effectively replicated and persisted in M-CSF MDM, but IFNα was produced in the early phase of infection only. Our results demonstrate that CVB4 can replicate and persist in MDM. Further investigations are required to determine whether the interaction between the virus and MDM plays a role in the pathogenesis of CVB-induced chronic diseases.

[Study of the virus carrier state in chicken influenza].

PubMed

Smolenskiĭ, V I; Osidze, N G; Bogautdinov, Z F; Panteleev, Iu V; Siurin, V N

1978-01-01

The problems of virus carrier state in influenza are connected with two aspects of the disease: the duration of virus antigen persistence in convalescents and changes of influenza virus properties in the course of persistence. In the present study, natural influenza infection in chickens caused by influenza A/chicken/USSR/336/74 virus (Hav6H3--N2) was used to determine the duration of virus antigen persistence (up to 60 days) and the entire period of virus isolation from the survivers (up to 30 days). Administration of hydrocortisone on the 50th day of convalescence permitted to obtain from the chickens several influenza A virus isolates antigenically unrelated to the epizootic strain either in hemagglutinin or in neuraminidase. Cultivation of isolate No. 42 (Hav7Neq1) in the presence of the homologous serum yielded strain 42' which was neutralized by the serum to Hav6H3--N2 virus. The isolates differed from the epizootic virus by their biological properties: the eluting activity, pathogenesis and morphology. The above facts of antigenic variability are considered in the light of the antigenic heterogeneity of the natural virus population and the possibility of virus activation by the provoking effect of extreme conditions on the carriers of latent infection.

A case study of undergraduate female students majoring in math, science and engineering: An analysis of persistence and success

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyde, Michelle Smoot

This dissertation provides information concerning the educational experience of females studying in undergraduate fields of math, engineering and science at a large research institution in the West. The majority of the participants were Project Access students, chosen because of their high achievements in science and mathematics during their secondary education. The study identifies and attempts to understand critical factors within the academic environment of science that contribute to female persistence in math, engineering and science (MES) disciplines. The study postulates that universities can make a difference in the education of women by providing programs that assure quality education and the fostering of female interest in science domains. The study recommends the incorporation of collaborative learning processes and teaching methods, cohort involvement and the fostering of study groups, encouragement of professorial associations with students, and internship and lab programs in an attempt to provide a more holistic and less fragmented education, thus benefiting women seeking MES degrees. Also, the research presented in this paper determined that the formation of positive associations and support networks was crucial to college female population studied. The interpretive study's aim is to enhance persistence rates among undergraduate students studying in math, engineering and science fields.

[Influence of sinus rhythm restoration and maintenance on left ventricle diameter and function in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation--one year follow-up].

PubMed

Kosior, Dariusz A; Szulc, Marcin; Stawicki, Sławomir; Roik, Marek; Rabczenko, Daniel; Opolski, Grzegorz

2005-01-01

Aim of our study was to determine the dynamics of selected echocardiographic parameters after sinus rhythm (SR) restoration and maintenance in pts with persistent nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF) during one year follow-up period. Our study population comprised 104 pts (F/M 33/71; mean age 60.4 +/- 7.4) assigned to SR restoration and maintenance with serial antiarrhythmic drug usage, for whom transthoracic echocardiographic (TTE) variables were recorded prior to, 2 and 12 months after cardioversion (CD). Left ventricle diastolic diameter and fractional shortening were variables of interest. SR was presented in 66 (63.5%) pts at one year. There was no significant differences in left ventricle diastolic diameter during the follow up. A significant increase in left ventricular fractional shortening (29.9 +/- 6.9% vs 34.5 +/- 8.9%; p < 0.001) was found in pts assigned to the sinus rhythm restoration according to intention-to-treat analysis. Such trend was noted only in pts who maintained SR during the follow up (29.9 +/- 7.6% vs 35.6 +/- 9.3%; p < 0.001). Among all considered variables only value of left ventricular fractional shortening increased after successful CV of persistent AF in one year follow-up.

Regeneration of a keystone semiarid shrub over its range in Spain: habitat degradation overrides the positive effects of plant-animal mutualisms.

PubMed

Rey, Pedro J; Cancio, Inmaculada; Manzaneda, Antonio J; González-Robles, Ana; Valera, Francisco; Salido, Teresa; Alcántara, Julio M

2018-06-22

Global change drivers are currently affecting semiarid ecosystems. Because these ecosystems differ from others in biotic and abiotic filters, cues for plant regeneration and management derived from elsewhere may not be applicable to semiarid ecosystems. We sought to determine the extent to which regional variation in regeneration prospects of a long-lived semiarid keystone shrub depends on anthropogenic habitat degradation, plant-animal interactions and climate determinants. We investigated the regeneration ability (via population size structure, juvenile density and juvenile/adult ratio), fruit set and seed dispersal of Ziziphus lotus in 25 localities spanning the range of its threatened habitats in Spain. We dissected the relative contribution of different regeneration determinants using multiple regression and structural equation modelling. Population regeneration was extremely poor, and size structures were biased towards large classes and low juvenile densities and juvenile/adult ratios. Poor regeneration was often coincident with seed dispersal collapse. However, the positive effect of seed dispersal on population regeneration disappeared after considering its relationship with habitat degradation. Protected areas did have juveniles. Together, these data suggest that habitat degradation directly impacts juvenile establishment. Our results provide insights into habitat and species management at the regional level. Z. lotus populations are currently driven by persistence-based dynamics through the longevity of the species. Nonetheless, collapsed seed dispersal, poor regeneration and the removal of adults from their habitats forecast extinction of Z. lotus in many remnants. The extreme longevity of Z. lotus grants opportunities for the recovery of its populations and habitats through effective enforcement of regulations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Genetic erosion impedes adaptive responses to stressful environments

PubMed Central

Bijlsma, R; Loeschcke, Volker

2012-01-01

Biodiversity is increasingly subjected to human-induced changes of the environment. To persist, populations continually have to adapt to these often stressful changes including pollution and climate change. Genetic erosion in small populations, owing to fragmentation of natural habitats, is expected to obstruct such adaptive responses: (i) genetic drift will cause a decrease in the level of adaptive genetic variation, thereby limiting evolutionary responses; (ii) inbreeding and the concomitant inbreeding depression will reduce individual fitness and, consequently, the tolerance of populations to environmental stress. Importantly, inbreeding generally increases the sensitivity of a population to stress, thereby increasing the amount of inbreeding depression. As adaptation to stress is most often accompanied by increased mortality (cost of selection), the increase in the ‘cost of inbreeding’ under stress is expected to severely hamper evolutionary adaptive processes. Inbreeding thus plays a pivotal role in this process and is expected to limit the probability of genetically eroded populations to successfully adapt to stressful environmental conditions. Consequently, the dynamics of small fragmented populations may differ considerably from large nonfragmented populations. The resilience of fragmented populations to changing and deteriorating environments is expected to be greatly decreased. Alleviating inbreeding depression, therefore, is crucial to ensure population persistence. PMID:25568035

Population viability analysis of the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), 1976-1991

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marmontel, M.; Humphrey, S.R.; O'Shea, T.J.

1997-01-01

Recent development of age-determination techniques for Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) has permitted derivation of age-specific data on reproduction and survival of a sample of 1212 carcasses obtained throughout Florida from 1976–1991. Population viability analysis using these data projects a slightly negative growth rate (−0.003) and an unacceptably low probability of persistence (0.44) over 1000 years. The main factors affecting population projections were adult survival and fecundity. A 10% increase in adult mortality would drive the population to extinction over a 1000-year time scale, whereas a 10% decrease in adult mortality would allow slow population growth. A 10% decrease in reproduction would also result in extinction. We conclude that management must focus on retaining and improving the conditions under which manatee demography operates. The major identified agent of mortality is boat-manatee collisions, and rapidly increasing numbers of humans and registered boats portend an increase in manatee mortality. Zoning of manatee-occupied waters for reductions in boating activity and speed is essential to safeguard the manatee population. If boating regulations being implemented by the state of Florida in each of 13 key coastal counties are completed, enforced, and effective, manatees and human recreation could coexist indefinitely. If regulation is unsuccessful, the Florida manatee population is likely to decline slowly toward extinction.

Origin, evolution, and population genetics of the selfish Segregation Distorter gene duplication in European and African populations of Drosophila melanogaster.

PubMed

Brand, Cara L; Larracuente, Amanda M; Presgraves, Daven C

2015-05-01

Meiotic drive elements are a special class of evolutionarily "selfish genes" that subvert Mendelian segregation to gain preferential transmission at the expense of homologous loci. Many drive elements appear to be maintained in populations as stable polymorphisms, their equilibrium frequencies determined by the balance between drive (increasing frequency) and selection (decreasing frequency). Here we show that a classic, seemingly balanced, drive system is instead characterized by frequent evolutionary turnover giving rise to dynamic, rather than stable, equilibrium frequencies. The autosomal Segregation Distorter (SD) system of the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster is a selfish coadapted meiotic drive gene complex in which the major driver corresponds to a partial duplication of the gene Ran-GTPase activating protein (RanGAP). SD chromosomes segregate at similar, low frequencies of 1-5% in natural populations worldwide, consistent with a balanced polymorphism. Surprisingly, our population genetic analyses reveal evidence for parallel, independent selective sweeps of different SD chromosomes in populations on different continents. These findings suggest that, rather than persisting at a single stable equilibrium, SD chromosomes turn over frequently within populations. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Source-Sink Colonization as a Possible Strategy of Insects Living in Temporary Habitats.

PubMed

Frouz, Jan; Kindlmann, Pavel

2015-01-01

Continuous colonization and re-colonization is critical for survival of insect species living in temporary habitats. When insect populations in temporary habitats are depleted, some species may escape extinction by surviving in permanent, but less suitable habitats, in which long-term population survival can be maintained only by immigration from other populations. Such situation has been repeatedly described in nature, but conditions when and how this occurs and how important this phenomenon is for insect metapopulation survival are still poorly known, mainly because it is difficult to study experimentally. Therefore, we used a simulation model to investigate, how environmental stochasticity, growth rate and the incidence of dispersal affect the positive effect of permanent but poor ("sink") habitats on the likelihood of metapopulation persistence in a network of high quality but temporary ("source") habitats. This model revealed that permanent habitats substantially increase the probability of metapopulation persistence of insect species with poor dispersal ability if the availability of temporary habitats is spatio-temporally synchronized. Addition of permanent habitats to a system sometimes enabled metapopulation persistence even in cases in which the metapopulation would otherwise go extinct, especially for species with high growth rates. For insect species with low growth rates the probability of a metapopulation persistence strongly depended on the proportions of "source" to "source" and "sink" to "source" dispersal rates.

Testing a new hypothesis on the persistence of Calanus finmarchicus in the Gulf of Maine: Coastal Amplification of Supply and Transport (CAST)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, R.; Feng, Z.; Jones, B.; Chen, C.; Record, N.; Runge, J. A.

2016-02-01

The lipid-rich calanoid copepod, Calanus finmarchicus, plays a critical role in the pelagic food web of the North Atlantic ecosystem. Deep basins along the continental shelf, such as Wilkinson Basin (WB) in the Gulf of Maine, harbor high abundance of diapausing C. finmarchicus during the summer and fall that have persisted despite predictions to the contrary. Identifying the major source of diapausing individuals is critical to the understanding of mechanisms that allow population persistence. This is especially true for a shelf system such as the the Gulf of Maine, which has recently experienced significant warming that could potentially threaten the existence of the population in the region. In this study, we conduct a series of Lagrangian tracking experiments using a copepod life history individual-based model. Model results suggest that coastal waters are the major upstream source for individuals entering dormancy in WB over summertime, although pathways and distribution patterns vary with vertical positioning and release timing of particles. By linking these model results and the observed high springtime egg production rate in the coastal Gulf of Maine, we propose a new mechanism for population persistence that involves coastal amplification of supply (spring reproduction/summer growth in the food-rich coastal region) and transport to receiving basins (e.g. WB) capable of harboring the overwintering stock.

Issues of College Persistence between Asian and Asian Pacific American Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yeh, Theresa Ling

2004-01-01

This article offers an exploration of the Asian Pacific American (APA) ethnic groups that show high rates of departure, and presents strategies and approaches to improving their persistence and graduation rates. A detailed examination of the APA population is presented to identify the subgroups that are underrepresented in higher education and who…

Formulating a New Model of College Choice and Persistence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Southerland, J. Nathaniel

2006-01-01

The study of college choice and persistence enjoys a lengthy history. However, many of the prominent models upon which the majority of research in these fields is based arise from studies involving traditional 18- to 22-year-old residential students. This paper investigates the rapidly-evolving student population and formulates a new model for…

Career-Technical Students in Baccalaureate Programs: Predictors of the Intent to Persist and Satisfaction with Educational Pathways

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Uranis, Julie

2015-01-01

This research explores the intersections of descriptive attributes, expectations, and influences (independent variables) and the degree to which they predict the intent to persist and satisfaction (dependent variables) of students enrolled in career-technical programs at four-year institutions. Little research exists for this population, and…

Long-term Persistence of Innate Lymphoid Cells in the Gut After Intestinal Transplantation.

PubMed

Weiner, Joshua; Zuber, Julien; Shonts, Brittany; Yang, Suxiao; Fu, Jianing; Martinez, Mercedes; Farber, Donna L; Kato, Tomoaki; Sykes, Megan

2017-10-01

Little is known about innate lymphoid cell (ILC) populations in the human gut, and the turnover of these cells and their subsets after transplantation has not been described. Intestinal samples were taken from 4 isolated intestine and 3 multivisceral transplant recipients at the time of any operative resection, such as stoma closure or revision. ILCs were isolated and analyzed by flow cytometry. The target population was defined as being negative for lineage markers and double-positive for CD45/CD127. Cells were further stained to define ILC subsets and a donor-specific or recipient-specific HLA marker to analyze chimerism. Donor-derived ILCs were found to persist greater than 8 years after transplantation. Additionally, the percentage of cells thought to be lymphoid tissue inducer cells among donor ILCs was far higher than that among recipient ILCs. Our findings demonstrate that donor-derived ILCs persist long-term after transplantation and support the notion that human lymphoid tissue inducer cells may form in the fetus and persist throughout life, as hypothesized in rodents. Correlation between chimerism and rejection, graft failure, and patient survival requires further study.

Adverse Outcome Pathways and Ecological Risk Assessment: Bridging to Population Level Effects: Report of Pellston Workgroup 3

EPA Science Inventory

The continuing persistence and genetic diversity of populations is a key concern for environmental regulations. Population-level responses integrate the cumulative effects of chemical stressors on individuals as those individuals interact with and are affected by their con-speci...

Life history plasticity does not confer resilience to environmental change in the mole salamander (Ambystoma talpoideum)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Courtney L. Davis,; David A.W. Miller,; Walls, Susan; Barichivich, William J.; Riley, Jeffrey W.; Brown, Mary E.

2017-01-01

Plasticity in life history strategies can be advantageous for species that occupy spatially or temporally variable environments. We examined how phenotypic plasticity influences responses of the mole salamander, Ambystoma talpoideum, to disturbance events at the St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge (SMNWR), FL, USA from 2009 to 2014. We observed periods of extensive drought early in the study, in contrast to high rainfall and expansive flooding events in later years. Flooding facilitated colonization of predatory fishes to isolated wetlands across the refuge. We employed multistate occupancy models to determine how this natural experiment influenced the occurrence of aquatic larvae and paedomorphic adults and what implications this may have for the population. We found that, in terms of occurrence, responses to environmental variation differed between larvae and paedomorphs, but plasticity (i.e. the ability to metamorphose rather than remain in aquatic environment) was not sufficient to buffer populations from declining as a result of environmental perturbations. Drought and fish presence negatively influenced occurrence dynamics of larval and paedomorphic mole salamanders and, consequently, contributed to observed short-term declines of this species. Overall occurrence of larval salamanders decreased from 0.611 in 2009 to 0.075 in 2014 and paedomorph occurrence decreased from 0.311 in 2009 to 0.121 in 2014. Although variation in selection pressures has likely maintained this polyphenism previously, our results suggest that continued changes in environmental variability and the persistence of fish in isolated wetlands could lead to a loss of paedomorphosis in the SMNWR population and, ultimately, impact regional persistence in the future.

Progressive CD4+ central–memory T cell decline results in CD4+ effector–memory insufficiency and overt disease in chronic SIV infection

PubMed Central

Okoye, Afam; Meier-Schellersheim, Martin; Brenchley, Jason M.; Hagen, Shoko I.; Walker, Joshua M.; Rohankhedkar, Mukta; Lum, Richard; Edgar, John B.; Planer, Shannon L.; Legasse, Alfred; Sylwester, Andrew W.; Piatak, Michael; Lifson, Jeffrey D.; Maino, Vernon C.; Sodora, Donald L.; Douek, Daniel C.; Axthelm, Michael K.; Grossman, Zvi; Picker, Louis J.

2007-01-01

Primary simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) infections of rhesus macaques result in the dramatic depletion of CD4+ CCR5+ effector–memory T (TEM) cells from extra-lymphoid effector sites, but in most infections, an increased rate of CD4+ memory T cell proliferation appears to prevent collapse of effector site CD4+ TEM cell populations and acute-phase AIDS. Eventually, persistent SIV replication results in chronic-phase AIDS, but the responsible mechanisms remain controversial. Here, we demonstrate that in the chronic phase of progressive SIV infection, effector site CD4+ TEM cell populations manifest a slow, continuous decline, and that the degree of this depletion remains a highly significant correlate of late-onset AIDS. We further show that due to persistent immune activation, effector site CD4+ TEM cells are predominantly short-lived, and that their homeostasis is strikingly dependent on the production of new CD4+ TEM cells from central–memory T (TCM) cell precursors. The instability of effector site CD4+ TEM cell populations over time was not explained by increasing destruction of these cells, but rather was attributable to progressive reduction in their production, secondary to decreasing numbers of CCR5− CD4+ TCM cells. These data suggest that although CD4+ TEM cell depletion is a proximate mechanism of immunodeficiency, the tempo of this depletion and the timing of disease onset are largely determined by destruction, failing production, and gradual decline of CD4+ TCM cells. PMID:17724130

Progressive CD4+ central memory T cell decline results in CD4+ effector memory insufficiency and overt disease in chronic SIV infection.

PubMed

Okoye, Afam; Meier-Schellersheim, Martin; Brenchley, Jason M; Hagen, Shoko I; Walker, Joshua M; Rohankhedkar, Mukta; Lum, Richard; Edgar, John B; Planer, Shannon L; Legasse, Alfred; Sylwester, Andrew W; Piatak, Michael; Lifson, Jeffrey D; Maino, Vernon C; Sodora, Donald L; Douek, Daniel C; Axthelm, Michael K; Grossman, Zvi; Picker, Louis J

2007-09-03

Primary simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) infections of rhesus macaques result in the dramatic depletion of CD4(+) CCR5(+) effector-memory T (T(EM)) cells from extra-lymphoid effector sites, but in most infections, an increased rate of CD4(+) memory T cell proliferation appears to prevent collapse of effector site CD4(+) T(EM) cell populations and acute-phase AIDS. Eventually, persistent SIV replication results in chronic-phase AIDS, but the responsible mechanisms remain controversial. Here, we demonstrate that in the chronic phase of progressive SIV infection, effector site CD4(+) T(EM) cell populations manifest a slow, continuous decline, and that the degree of this depletion remains a highly significant correlate of late-onset AIDS. We further show that due to persistent immune activation, effector site CD4(+) T(EM) cells are predominantly short-lived, and that their homeostasis is strikingly dependent on the production of new CD4(+) T(EM) cells from central-memory T (T(CM)) cell precursors. The instability of effector site CD4(+) T(EM) cell populations over time was not explained by increasing destruction of these cells, but rather was attributable to progressive reduction in their production, secondary to decreasing numbers of CCR5(-) CD4(+) T(CM) cells. These data suggest that although CD4(+) T(EM) cell depletion is a proximate mechanism of immunodeficiency, the tempo of this depletion and the timing of disease onset are largely determined by destruction, failing production, and gradual decline of CD4(+) T(CM) cells.

Virus genome dynamics under different propagation pressures: reconstruction of whole genome haplotypes of West Nile viruses from NGS data.

PubMed

Kortenhoeven, Cornell; Joubert, Fourie; Bastos, Armanda D S; Abolnik, Celia

2015-02-22

Extensive focus is placed on the comparative analyses of consensus genotypes in the study of West Nile virus (WNV) emergence. Few studies account for genetic change in the underlying WNV quasispecies population variants. These variants are not discernable in the consensus genome at the time of emergence, and the maintenance of mutation-selection equilibria of population variants is greatly underestimated. The emergence of lineage 1 WNV strains has been studied extensively, but recent epidemics caused by lineage 2 WNV strains in Hungary, Austria, Greece and Italy emphasizes the increasing importance of this lineage to public health. In this study we explored the quasispecies dynamics of minority variants that contribute to cell-tropism and host determination, i.e. the ability to infect different cell types or cells from different species from Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) data of a historic lineage 2 WNV strain. Minority variants contributing to host cell membrane association persist in the viral population without contributing to the genetic change in the consensus genome. Minority variants are shown to maintain a stable mutation-selection equilibrium under positive selection, particularly in the capsid gene region. This study is the first to infer positive selection and the persistence of WNV haplotype variants that contribute to viral fitness without accompanying genetic change in the consensus genotype, documented solely from NGS sequence data. The approach used in this study streamlines the experimental design seeking viral minority variants accurately from NGS data whilst minimizing the influence of associated sequence error.

The development of pathogen resistance in Daphnia magna: implications for disease spread in age-structured populations.

PubMed

Garbutt, Jennie S; O'Donoghue, Anna J P; McTaggart, Seanna J; Wilson, Philip J; Little, Tom J

2014-11-01

Immunity in vertebrates is well established to develop with time, but the ontogeny of defence in invertebrates is markedly less studied. Yet, age-specific capacity for defence against pathogens, coupled with age structure in populations, has widespread implications for disease spread. Thus, we sought to determine the susceptibility of hosts of different ages in an experimental invertebrate host-pathogen system. In a series of experiments, we show that the ability of Daphnia magna to resist its natural bacterial pathogen Pasteuria ramosa changes with host age. Clonal differences make it difficult to draw general conclusions, but the majority of observations indicate that resistance increases early in the life of D. magna, consistent with the idea that the defence system develops with time. Immediately following this, at about the time when a daphnid would be most heavily investing in reproduction, resistance tends to decline. Because many ecological factors influence the age structure of Daphnia populations, our results highlight a broad mechanism by which ecological context can affect disease epidemiology. We also show that a previously observed protective effect of restricted maternal food persists throughout the entire juvenile period, and that the protective effect of prior treatment with a small dose of the pathogen ('priming') persists for 7 days, observations that reinforce the idea that immunity in D. magna can change over time. Together, our experiments lead us to conclude that invertebrate defence capabilities have an ontogeny that merits consideration with respect to both their immune systems and the epidemic spread of infection. © 2014. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

The development of pathogen resistance in Daphnia magna: implications for disease spread in age-structured populations

PubMed Central

Garbutt, Jennie S.; O'Donoghue, Anna J. P.; McTaggart, Seanna J.; Wilson, Philip J.; Little, Tom J.

2014-01-01

Immunity in vertebrates is well established to develop with time, but the ontogeny of defence in invertebrates is markedly less studied. Yet, age-specific capacity for defence against pathogens, coupled with age structure in populations, has widespread implications for disease spread. Thus, we sought to determine the susceptibility of hosts of different ages in an experimental invertebrate host–pathogen system. In a series of experiments, we show that the ability of Daphnia magna to resist its natural bacterial pathogen Pasteuria ramosa changes with host age. Clonal differences make it difficult to draw general conclusions, but the majority of observations indicate that resistance increases early in the life of D. magna, consistent with the idea that the defence system develops with time. Immediately following this, at about the time when a daphnid would be most heavily investing in reproduction, resistance tends to decline. Because many ecological factors influence the age structure of Daphnia populations, our results highlight a broad mechanism by which ecological context can affect disease epidemiology. We also show that a previously observed protective effect of restricted maternal food persists throughout the entire juvenile period, and that the protective effect of prior treatment with a small dose of the pathogen (‘priming’) persists for 7 days, observations that reinforce the idea that immunity in D. magna can change over time. Together, our experiments lead us to conclude that invertebrate defence capabilities have an ontogeny that merits consideration with respect to both their immune systems and the epidemic spread of infection. PMID:25214486

The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of animal populations.

PubMed

Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Sibly, Richard M; Forchhammer, Mads C; Forbes, Valery E; Topping, Christopher J

2010-01-28

The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of wild animal populations is of crucial importance to wildlife managers and conservation biologists, but obtaining experimental evidence using real landscapes is usually impossible. To circumvent this problem we used individual-based models (IBMs) of interacting animals in experimental modifications of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of four species with contrasting life-history characteristics: skylark (Alauda arvensis), vole (Microtus agrestis), a ground beetle (Bembidion lampros) and a linyphiid spider (Erigone atra). This allows us to quantify the population implications of experimental modifications of landscape configuration and composition. Starting with a real agricultural landscape, we progressively reduced landscape complexity by (i) homogenizing habitat patch shapes, (ii) randomizing the locations of the patches, and (iii) randomizing the size of the patches. The first two steps increased landscape fragmentation. We assessed the effects of these manipulations on the long-term persistence of animal populations by measuring equilibrium population sizes and time to recovery after disturbance. Patch rearrangement and the presence of corridors had a large effect on the population dynamics of species whose local success depends on the surrounding terrain. Landscape modifications that reduced population sizes increased recovery times in the short-dispersing species, making small populations vulnerable to increasing disturbance. The species that were most strongly affected by large disturbances fluctuated little in population sizes in years when no perturbations took place. Traditional approaches to the management and conservation of populations use either classical methods of population analysis, which fail to adequately account for the spatial configurations of landscapes, or landscape ecology, which accounts for landscape structure but has difficulty predicting the dynamics of populations living in them. Here we show how realistic and replicable individual-based models can bridge the gap between non-spatial population theory and non-dynamic landscape ecology. A major strength of the approach is its ability to identify population vulnerabilities not detected by standard population viability analyses.

Persistence of external signs in Pacific herring Clupea pallasii Valenciennes with ichthyophoniasis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hart, Lucas M.; Conway, Carla M.; Elliott, Diane G.; Hershberger, Paul K.

2016-01-01

The progression of external signs of Ichthyophonus infection in Pacific herring Clupea pallasii Valenciennes was highly variable and asynchronous after intraperitoneal injection with pure parasite preparations; however, external signs generally persisted through the end of the study (429 days post-exposure). Observed signs included papules, erosions and ulcers. The prevalence of external signs plateaued 35 days post-exposure and persisted in 73–79% of exposed individuals through the end of the first experiment (147 days post-exposure). Among a second group of infected herring, external signs completely resolved in only 10% of the fish after 429 days. The onset of mortality preceded the appearance of external signs. Histological examination of infected skin and skeletal muscle tissues indicated an apparent affinity of the parasite for host red muscle. Host responses consisted primarily of granulomatous inflammation, fibrosis and necrosis in the skeletal muscle and other tissues. The persistence and asynchrony of external signs and host response indicated that they were neither a precursor to host mortality nor did they provide reliable metrics for hindcasting on the date of exposure. However, the long-term persistence of clinical signs in Pacific herring may be useful in ascertaining the population-level impacts of ichthyophoniasis in regularly observed populations.

Burial increases seed longevity of two Artemisia tridentata (Asteraceae) subspecies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wijayratne, Upekala C.; Pyke, David A.

2012-01-01

Premise of the study: Seed longevity and persistence in soil seed banks may be especially important for population persistence in ecosystems where opportunities for seedling establishment and disturbance are unpredictable. The fire regime, an important driver of population dynamics in sagebrush steppe ecosystems, has been altered by exotic annual grass invasion. Soil seed banks may play an active role in postfire recovery of the foundation shrub Artemisia tridentata, yet conditions under which seeds persist are largely unknown. Methods: We investigated seed longevity of two Artemisia tridentata subspecies in situ by retrieving seed bags that were placed at varying depths over a 2 yr period. We also sampled naturally dispersed seeds in litter and soil immediately after seed dispersal and before flowering in subsequent seasons to estimate seed persistence. Key results: After 24 mo, seeds buried at least 3 cm below the soil surface retained 30–40% viability whereas viability of seeds on the surface and under litter declined to 0 and Artemisia tridentata has the potential to form a short-term soil seed bank that persists longer than has been commonly assumed, and that burial is necessary for seed longevity. Use of seeding techniques that promote burial of some seeds to aid in formation of a soil seed bank may increase restoration potential.

Indirect evolutionary rescue: prey adapts, predator avoids extinction

PubMed Central

Yamamichi, Masato; Miner, Brooks E

2015-01-01

Recent studies have increasingly recognized evolutionary rescue (adaptive evolution that prevents extinction following environmental change) as an important process in evolutionary biology and conservation science. Researchers have concentrated on single species living in isolation, but populations in nature exist within communities of interacting species, so evolutionary rescue should also be investigated in a multispecies context. We argue that the persistence or extinction of a focal species can be determined solely by evolutionary change in an interacting species. We demonstrate that prey adaptive evolution can prevent predator extinction in two-species predator–prey models, and we derive the conditions under which this indirect evolutionary interaction is essential to prevent extinction following environmental change. A nonevolving predator can be rescued from extinction by adaptive evolution of its prey due to a trade-off for the prey between defense against predation and population growth rate. As prey typically have larger populations and shorter generations than their predators, prey evolution can be rapid and have profound effects on predator population dynamics. We suggest that this process, which we term ‘indirect evolutionary rescue’, has the potential to be critically important to the ecological and evolutionary responses of populations and communities to dramatic environmental change. PMID:26366196

Climate and local abundance in freshwater fishes

PubMed Central

Knouft, Jason H.; Anthony, Melissa M.

2016-01-01

Identifying factors regulating variation in numbers of individuals among populations across a species' distribution is a fundamental goal in ecology. A common prediction, often referred to as the abundant-centre hypothesis, suggests that abundance is highest near the centre of a species' range. However, because of the primary focus on the geographical position of a population, this framework provides little insight into the environmental factors regulating local abundance. While range-wide variation in population abundance associated with environmental conditions has been investigated in terrestrial species, the relationship between climate and local abundance in freshwater taxa across species' distributions is not well understood. We used GIS-based temperature and precipitation data to determine the relationships between climatic conditions and range-wide variation in local abundance for 19 species of North American freshwater fishes. Climate predicted a portion of the variation in local abundance among populations for 18 species. In addition, the relationship between climatic conditions and local abundance varied among species, which is expected as lineages partition the environment across geographical space. The influence of local habitat quality on species persistence is well documented; however, our results also indicate the importance of climate in regulating population sizes across a species geographical range, even in aquatic taxa. PMID:27429769

More rapid climate change promotes evolutionary rescue through selection for increased dispersal distance

PubMed Central

Boeye, Jeroen; Travis, Justin M J; Stoks, Robby; Bonte, Dries

2013-01-01

Species can either adapt to new conditions induced by climate change or shift their range in an attempt to track optimal environmental conditions. During current range shifts, species are simultaneously confronted with a second major anthropogenic disturbance, landscape fragmentation. Using individual-based models with a shifting climate window, we examine the effect of different rates of climate change on the evolution of dispersal distances through changes in the genetically determined dispersal kernel. Our results demonstrate that the rate of climate change is positively correlated to the evolved dispersal distances although too fast climate change causes the population to crash. When faced with realistic rates of climate change, greater dispersal distances evolve than those required for the population to keep track of the climate, thereby maximizing population size. Importantly, the greater dispersal distances that evolve when climate change is more rapid, induce evolutionary rescue by facilitating the population in crossing large gaps in the landscape. This could ensure population persistence in case of range shifting in fragmented landscapes. Furthermore, we highlight problems in using invasion speed as a proxy for potential range shifting abilities under climate change. PMID:23467649

The hypothalamus–pituitary–thyroid axis in teleosts and amphibians: Endocrine disruption and its consequences to natural populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carr, J.A.; Patino, Reynaldo

2011-01-01

Teleosts and pond-breeding amphibians may be exposed to a wide variety of anthropogenic, waterborne contaminants that affect the hypothalamus-pituitary-thyroid (HPT) axis. Because thyroid hormone is required for their normal development and reproduction, the potential impact of HPT-disrupting contaminants on natural teleost and amphibian populations raises special concern. There is laboratory evidence indicating that persistent organic pollutants, heavy metals, pharmaceutical and personal care products, agricultural chemicals, and aerospace products may alter HPT activity, development, and reproduction in teleosts and amphibians. However, at present there is no evidence to clearly link contaminant-induced HPT alterations to impairments in teleost or amphibian population health in the field. Also, with the exception of perchlorate for which laboratory studies have shown a direct link between HPT disruption and adverse impacts on development and reproductive physiology, little is known about if or how other HPT-disrupting contaminants affect organismal performance. Future field studies should focus on establishing temporal associations between the presence of HPT-disrupting chemicals, the occurrence of HPT alterations, and adverse effects on development and reproduction in natural populations; as well as determining how complex mixtures of HPT contaminants affect organismal and population health.

The hypothalamus-pituitary-thyroid axis in teleosts and amphibians: Endocrine disruption and its consequences to natural populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carr, J.A.; Patino, R.

2011-01-01

Teleosts and pond-breeding amphibians may be exposed to a wide variety of anthropogenic, waterborne contaminants that affect the hypothalamus-pituitary-thyroid (HPT) axis. Because thyroid hormone is required for their normal development and reproduction, the potential impact of HPT-disrupting contaminants on natural teleost and amphibian populations raises special concern. There is laboratory evidence indicating that persistent organic pollutants, heavy metals, pharmaceutical and personal care products, agricultural chemicals, and aerospace products may alter HPT activity, development, and reproduction in teleosts and amphibians. However, at present there is no evidence to clearly link contaminant-induced HPT alterations to impairments in teleost or amphibian population health in the field. Also, with the exception of perchlorate for which laboratory studies have shown a direct link between HPT disruption and adverse impacts on development and reproductive physiology, little is known about if or how other HPT-disrupting contaminants affect organismal performance. Future field studies should focus on establishing temporal associations between the presence of HPT-disrupting chemicals, the occurrence of HPT alterations, and adverse effects on development and reproduction in natural populations; as well as determining how complex mixtures of HPT contaminants affect organismal and population health. ?? 2010 Elsevier Inc.

Persistence of transgene expression influences CD8+ T-cell expansion and maintenance following immunization with recombinant adenovirus.

PubMed

Finn, Jonathan D; Bassett, Jennifer; Millar, James B; Grinshtein, Natalie; Yang, Teng Chih; Parsons, Robin; Evelegh, Carole; Wan, Yonghong; Parks, Robin J; Bramson, Jonathan L

2009-12-01

Previous studies determined that the CD8(+) T-cell response elicited by recombinant adenovirus exhibited a protracted contraction phase that was associated with long-term presentation of antigen. To gain further insight into this process, a doxycycline-regulated adenovirus was constructed to enable controlled extinction of transgene expression in vivo. We investigated the impact of premature termination of transgene expression at various time points (day 3 to day 60) following immunization. When transgene expression was terminated before the maximum response had been attained, overall expansion was attenuated, yielding a small memory population. When transgene expression was terminated between day 13 and day 30, the memory population was not sustained, demonstrating that the early memory population was antigen dependent. Extinction of transgene expression at day 60 had no obvious impact on memory maintenance, indicating that maintenance of the memory population may ultimately become independent of transgene expression. Premature termination of antigen expression had significant but modest effects on the phenotype and cytokine profile of the memory population. These results offer new insights into the mechanisms of memory CD8(+) T-cell maintenance following immunization with a recombinant adenovirus.

Intraspecific Variation in Female Sex Pheromone of the Codling Moth Cydia pomonella

PubMed Central

Duménil, Claire; Judd, Gary J. R.; Bosch, Dolors; Baldessari, Mario; Gemeno, César; Groot, Astrid T.

2014-01-01

The codling moth, Cydia pomonella L. (Lepidoptera, Tortricidae), is a major pest of apple, pear and walnut orchards worldwide. This pest is often controlled using the biologically friendly control method known as pheromone-based mating disruption. Mating disruption likely exerts selection on the sexual communication system of codling moth, as male and female moths will persist in their attempt to meet and mate. Surprisingly little is known on the intraspecific variation of sexual communication in this species. We started an investigation to determine the level of individual variation in the female sex pheromone composition of this moth and whether variation among different populations might be correlated with use of mating disruption against those populations. By extracting pheromone glands of individual females from a laboratory population in Canada and from populations from apple orchards in Spain and Italy, we found significant between- and within-population variation. Comparing females that had been exposed to mating disruption, or not, revealed a significant difference in sex pheromone composition for two of the minor components. Overall, the intraspecific variation observed shows the potential for a shift in female sexual signal when selection pressure is high, as is the case with continuous use of mating disruption. PMID:26462935

Intraspecific Variation in Female Sex Pheromone of the Codling Moth Cydia pomonella.

PubMed

Duménil, Claire; Judd, Gary J R; Bosch, Dolors; Baldessari, Mario; Gemeno, César; Groot, Astrid T

2014-09-26

The codling moth, Cydia pomonella L. (Lepidoptera, Tortricidae), is a major pest of apple, pear and walnut orchards worldwide. This pest is often controlled using the biologically friendly control method known as pheromone-based mating disruption. Mating disruption likely exerts selection on the sexual communication system of codling moth, as male and female moths will persist in their attempt to meet and mate. Surprisingly little is known on the intraspecific variation of sexual communication in this species. We started an investigation to determine the level of individual variation in the female sex pheromone composition of this moth and whether variation among different populations might be correlated with use of mating disruption against those populations. By extracting pheromone glands of individual females from a laboratory population in Canada and from populations from apple orchards in Spain and Italy, we found significant between- and within-population variation. Comparing females that had been exposed to mating disruption, or not, revealed a significant difference in sex pheromone composition for two of the minor components. Overall, the intraspecific variation observed shows the potential for a shift in female sexual signal when selection pressure is high, as is the case with continuous use of mating disruption.

Ligand Field Strength Mediates Electron Delocalization in Octahedral [((H)L)2Fe6(L')m](n+) Clusters.

PubMed

Hernández Sánchez, Raúl; Zheng, Shao-Liang; Betley, Theodore A

2015-09-02

To assess the impact of terminal ligand binding on a variety of cluster properties (redox delocalization, ground-state stabilization, and breadth of redox state accessibility), we prepared three electron-transfer series based on the hexanuclear iron cluster [((H)L)2Fe6(L')m](n+) in which the terminal ligand field strength was modulated from weak to strong (L' = DMF, MeCN, CN). The extent of intracore M-M interactions is gauged by M-M distances, spin ground state persistence, and preference for mixed-valence states as determined by electrochemical comproportionation constants. Coordination of DMF to the [((H)L)2Fe6] core leads to weaker Fe-Fe interactions, as manifested by the observation of ground states populated only at lower temperatures (<100 K) and by the greater evidence of valence trapping within the mixed-valence states. Comproportionation constants determined electrochemically (Kc = 10(4)-10(8)) indicate that the redox series exhibits electronic delocalization (class II-III), yet no intervalence charge transfer (IVCT) bands are observable in the near-IR spectra. Ligation of the stronger σ donor acetonitrile results in stabilization of spin ground states to higher temperatures (∼300 K) and a high degree of valence delocalization (Kc = 10(2)-10(8)) with observable IVCT bands. Finally, the anionic cyanide-bound series reveals the highest degree of valence delocalization with the most intense IVCT bands (Kc = 10(12)-10(20)) and spin ground state population beyond room temperature. Across the series, at a given formal oxidation level, the capping ligand on the hexairon cluster dictates the overall properties of the aggregate, modulating the redox delocalization and the persistence of the intracore coupling of the metal sites.

Analysis of persistent changes to γ-aminobutyric acid receptor gene expression in Plutella xylostella subjected to sublethal amounts of spinosad.

PubMed

Yin, X-H; Wu, Q-J; Zhang, Y-J; Long, Y-H; Wu, X-M; Li, R-Y; Wang, M; Tian, X-L; Jiao, X-G

2016-07-25

A multi-generational approach was used to investigate the persistent effects of a sub-lethal dose of spinosad in Plutella xylostella. The susceptibility of various sub-populations of P. xylostella to spinosad and the effects of the insecticide on the gene expression of γ-aminobutyric acid receptor (GABAR) were determined. The results of a leaf dip bioassay showed that the sensitivity of P. xylostella to spinosad decreased across generations. The sub-strains had been previously selected based on a determined LC25 of spinosad. Considering that GABA-gated chloride channels are the primary targets of spinosad, the cDNA of P. xylostella was used to clone GABARα by using reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). The mature peptide cDNA was 1477-bp long and contained a 1449-bp open reading frame encoding a protein of 483 amino acids. The resulting amino acid sequence was used to generate a neighbor-joining dendrogram, and homology search was conducted using NCBI BLAST. The protein had high similarity with the known GABAR sequence from P. xylostella. Subsequent semi-quantitative RT-PCR and real-time PCR analyses indicated that the GABAR transcript levels in the spinosad-resistant strain (RR, 145.82-fold) and in Sub1 strain (selected with LC25 spinosad for one generation) were the highest, followed by those in the spinosad-susceptible strain, the Sub10 strain (selected for ten generations), and the Sub5 strain (selected for five generations). This multi-generational study found significant correlations between spinosad susceptibility and GABAR gene expression, providing insights into the long-term effects of sub-lethal insecticide exposure and its potential to lead to the development of insecticide-resistant insect populations.

Modeling the impacts of hunting on the population dynamics of red howler monkeys (Alouatta seniculus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiederholt, Ruscena; Fernandez-Duque, Eduardo; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Rudran, Rasanayagam

2010-01-01

Overexploitation of wildlife populations occurs across the humid tropics and is a significant threat to the long-term survival of large-bodied primates. To investigate the impacts of hunting on primates and ways to mitigate them, we developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model for a landscape that included hunted and un-hunted areas. We used the large-bodied neotropical red howler monkey (Alouatta seniculus) as our case study species because its life history characteristics make it vulnerable to hunting. We modeled the influence of different rates of harvest and proportions of landscape dedicated to un-hunted reserves on population persistence, population size, social dynamics, and hunting yields of red howler monkeys. In most scenarios, the un-hunted populations maintained a constant density regardless of hunting pressure elsewhere, and allowed the overall population to persist. Therefore, the overall population was quite resilient to extinction; only in scenarios without any un-hunted areas did the population go extinct. However, the total and hunted populations did experience large declines over 100 years under moderate and high hunting pressure. In addition, when reserve area decreased, population losses and losses per unit area increased disproportionately. Furthermore, hunting disrupted the social structure of troops. The number of male turnovers and infanticides increased in hunted populations, while birth rates decreased and exacerbated population losses due to hunting. Finally, our results indicated that when more than 55% of the landscape was harvested at high (30%) rates, hunting yields, as measured by kilograms of biomass, were less than those obtained from moderate harvest rates. Additionally, hunting yields, expressed as the number of individuals hunted/year/km2, increased in proximity to un-hunted areas, and suggested that dispersal from un-hunted areas may have contributed to hunting sustainability. These results indicate that un-hunted areas serve to enhance hunting yields, population size, and population persistence in hunted landscapes. Therefore, spatial regulation of hunting via a reserve system may be an effective management strategy for sustainable hunting, and we recommend it because it may also be more feasible to implement than harvest quotas or restrictions on season length.

Ecological Complexity in a Coffee Agroecosystem: Spatial Heterogeneity, Population Persistence and Biological Control

PubMed Central

Liere, Heidi; Jackson, Doug; Vandermeer, John

2012-01-01

Background Spatial heterogeneity is essential for the persistence of many inherently unstable systems such as predator-prey and parasitoid-host interactions. Since biological interactions themselves can create heterogeneity in space, the heterogeneity necessary for the persistence of an unstable system could be the result of local interactions involving elements of the unstable system itself. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we report on a predatory ladybird beetle whose natural history suggests that the beetle requires the patchy distribution of the mutualism between its prey, the green coffee scale, and the arboreal ant, Azteca instabilis. Based on known ecological interactions and the natural history of the system, we constructed a spatially-explicit model and showed that the clustered spatial pattern of ant nests facilitates the persistence of the beetle populations. Furthermore, we show that the dynamics of the beetle consuming the scale insects can cause the clustered distribution of the mutualistic ants in the first place. Conclusions/Significance From a theoretical point of view, our model represents a novel situation in which a predator indirectly causes a spatial pattern of an organism other than its prey, and in doing so facilitates its own persistence. From a practical point of view, it is noteworthy that one of the elements in the system is a persistent pest of coffee, an important world commodity. This pest, we argue, is kept within limits of control through a complex web of ecological interactions that involves the emergent spatial pattern. PMID:23029061

Tolerance and potential for adaptation of a Baltic Sea rockweed under predicted climate change conditions.

PubMed

Rugiu, Luca; Manninen, Iita; Rothäusler, Eva; Jormalainen, Veijo

2018-03-01

Climate change is threating species' persistence worldwide. To predict species responses to climate change we need information not just on their environmental tolerance but also on its adaptive potential. We tested how the foundation species of rocky littoral habitats, Fucus vesiculosus, responds to combined hyposalinity and warming projected to the Baltic Sea by 2070-2099. We quantified responses of replicated populations originating from the entrance, central, and marginal Baltic regions. Using replicated individuals, we tested for the presence of within-population tolerance variation. Future conditions hampered growth and survival of the central and marginal populations whereas the entrance populations fared well. Further, both the among- and within-population variation in responses to climate change indicated existence of genetic variation in tolerance. Such standing genetic variation provides the raw material necessary for adaptation to a changing environment, which may eventually ensure the persistence of the species in the inner Baltic Sea. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Persistence and ergodicity of a stochastic single species model with Allee effect under regime switching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Xingwang; Yuan, Sanling; Zhang, Tonghua

2018-06-01

Allee effect can interact with environment stochasticity and is active when population numbers are small. Our goal of this paper is to investigate such effect on population dynamics. More precisely, we develop and investigate a stochastic single species model with Allee effect under regime switching. We first prove the existence of global positive solution of the model. Then, we perform the survival analysis to seek sufficient conditions for the extinction, non-persistence in mean, persistence in mean and stochastic permanence. By constructing a suitable Lyapunov function, we show that the model is positive recurrent and ergodic. Our results indicate that the regime switching can suppress the extinction of the species. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the obtained theoretical results, where a real-life example is also discussed showing the inclusion of Allee effect in the model provides a better match to the data.

The Sunk Cost Effect with Pigeons: Some Determinants of Decisions about Persistence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Macaskill, Anne C.; Hackenberg, Timothy D.

2012-01-01

The sunk cost effect occurs when an individual persists following an initial investment, even when persisting is costly in the long run. The current study used a laboratory model of the sunk cost effect. Two response alternatives were available: Pigeons could persist by responding on a schedule key with mixed ratio requirements, or escape by…

Persistence length measurements from stochastic single-microtubule trajectories.

PubMed

van den Heuvel, M G L; Bolhuis, S; Dekker, C

2007-10-01

We present a simple method to determine the persistence length of short submicrometer microtubule ends from their stochastic trajectories on kinesin-coated surfaces. The tangent angle of a microtubule trajectory is similar to a random walk, which is solely determined by the stiffness of the leading tip and the velocity of the microtubule. We demonstrate that even a single-microtubule trajectory suffices to obtain a reliable value of the persistence length. We do this by calculating the variance in the tangent trajectory angle of an individual microtubule. By averaging over many individual microtubule trajectories, we find that the persistence length of microtubule tips is 0.24 +/- 0.03 mm.

Approximate Bayesian estimation of extinction rate in the Finnish Daphnia magna metapopulation.

PubMed

Robinson, John D; Hall, David W; Wares, John P

2013-05-01

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is useful for parameterizing complex models in population genetics. In this study, ABC was applied to simultaneously estimate parameter values for a model of metapopulation coalescence and test two alternatives to a strict metapopulation model in the well-studied network of Daphnia magna populations in Finland. The models shared four free parameters: the subpopulation genetic diversity (θS), the rate of gene flow among patches (4Nm), the founding population size (N0) and the metapopulation extinction rate (e) but differed in the distribution of extinction rates across habitat patches in the system. The three models had either a constant extinction rate in all populations (strict metapopulation), one population that was protected from local extinction (i.e. a persistent source), or habitat-specific extinction rates drawn from a distribution with specified mean and variance. Our model selection analysis favoured the model including a persistent source population over the two alternative models. Of the closest 750,000 data sets in Euclidean space, 78% were simulated under the persistent source model (estimated posterior probability = 0.769). This fraction increased to more than 85% when only the closest 150,000 data sets were considered (estimated posterior probability = 0.774). Approximate Bayesian computation was then used to estimate parameter values that might produce the observed set of summary statistics. Our analysis provided posterior distributions for e that included the point estimate obtained from previous data from the Finnish D. magna metapopulation. Our results support the use of ABC and population genetic data for testing the strict metapopulation model and parameterizing complex models of demography. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Behaviours and beliefs about pain and treatment among Chinese immigrants and New Zealand Europeans.

PubMed

Ho, Ping Carolyn; Johnson, Malcolm H

2013-03-01

To investigate how pain is construed and managed across Western and Chinese cultures. Adults from the general public completed an anonymous survey developed for this study. Participants responded to recruitment posters and handouts that were distributed to Auckland community centres, libraries and relevant social organisations. 165 participants were recruited with slightly more Chinese respondents (57.0%). 128 participants (77.5%) reported having experienced persistent pain which did not recover within expected periods in the last 5 years, and occurred more among Chinese (60.2%) than New Zealand Europeans (39.8%). Pain behaviours and coping strategies were found to be significantly different between Europeans and Chinese. However, differences in perceptions regarding pain and treatment were not substantial. Interestingly, for both cultures some participants reported behaving differently than expected according to their perceptions. Acculturation levels, however, did not show any great impact on Chinese immigrants. The high incidence of persistent pain reported in the study compared to random population surveys suggest individuals who had pain experiences were more likely to respond to the study. It is evident that culture plays an important role in determining various aspects of pain experience and response, although further investigation using randomised samples instead of self-selected survey populations is required to clarify the picture. The effect of acculturation levels particularly should be further investigated.

MOLECULAR EVOLUTION OF WEST NILE VIRUS IN A NORTHERN TEMPERATE REGION: CONNECTICUT, USA 1999–2008

PubMed Central

Armstrong, Philip M.; Vossbrinck, Charles R.; Andreadis, Theodore G.; Anderson, John F.; Pesko, Kendra N.; Newman, Ruchi M.; Lennon, Niall J.; Birren, Bruce W.; Ebel, Gregory D.; Henn, Mathew R.

2011-01-01

West Nile virus (WNV) has become firmly established in northeastern U.S., reemerging every summer since its introduction into North America in 1999. To determine whether WNV overwinters locally or is reseeded annually, we examined the patterns of viral lineage persistence and replacement in Connecticut over 10 consecutive transmission seasons by phylogenetic analysis. In addition, we compared the full protein coding sequence among WNV isolates to search for evidence of convergent and adaptive evolution. Viruses sampled from Connecticut segregated into a number of well-supported subclades by year of isolation with few clades persisting ≥2 years. Similar viral strains were dispersed in different locations across the state and divergent strains appeared within a single location during a single transmission season, implying widespread movement and rapid colonization of virus. Numerous amino acid substitutions arose in the population but only one change, V→A at position 159 of the envelope protein, became permanently fixed. Several instances of parallel evolution were identified in independent lineages, including one amino acid change in the NS4A protein that appears to bepositively selected. Our results suggest that annual reemergence of WNV is driven by both reintroduction and local-overwintering of virus. Despite ongoing evolution of WNV, most amino acid variants occurred at low frequencies and were transient in the virus population. PMID:21723580

Critical thresholds in species` responses to landscape structure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

With, K.A.; Crist, T.O.

1995-12-01

Critical thresholds are transition ranges across which small changes in spatial pattern produce abrupt shifts in ecological responses. Habitat fragmentation provides a familiar example of a critical threshold. As the landscape becomes dissected into smaller parcels of habitat. landscape connectivity-the functional linkage among habitat patches - may suddenly become disrupted, which may have important consequences for the distribution and persistence of populations. Landscape connectivity depends not only on the abundance and spatial patterning of habitat. but also on the habitat specificity and dispersal abilities of species. Habitat specialists with limited dispersal capabilities presumably have a much lower threshold to habitatmore » fragmentation than highly vagile species, which may perceive the landscape as functionally connected across a greater range of fragmentation severity. To determine where threshold effects in species, responses to landscape structure are likely to occur, a simulation model modified from percolation theory was developed. Our simulations predicted the distributional patterns of populations in different landscape mosaics, which we tested empirically using two grasshopper species (Orthoptera: Acrididae) that occur in the shortgrass prairie of north-central Colorado. The distribution of these two species in this grassland mosaic matched the predictions from our simulations. By providing quantitative predictions of threshold effects, this modelling approach may prove useful in the formulation of conservation strategies and assessment of land-use changes on species` distributional patterns and persistence.« less

Disease introduction is associated with a phase transition in bighorn sheep demographics

PubMed Central

Manlove, Kezia; Cassirer, E. Frances; Cross, Paul Chafee; Plowright, Raina K.; Hudson, Peter J.

2016-01-01

Ecological theory suggests that pathogens are capable of regulating or limiting host population dynamics, and this relationship has been empirically established in several settings. However, although studies of childhood diseases were integral to the development of disease ecology, few studies show population limitation by a disease affecting juveniles. Here, we present empirical evidence that disease in lambs constrains population growth in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) based on 45 years of population-level and 18 years of individual-level monitoring across 12 populations. While populations generally increased (lambda =1.11) prior to disease introduction, most of these same populations experienced an abrupt change in trajectory at the time of disease invasion, usually followed by stagnant-to-declining growth rates (lambda = 0.98) over the next twenty years. Disease-induced juvenile mortality imposed strong constraints on population growth that were not observed prior to disease introduction, even as adult survival returned to pre-invasion levels. Simulations suggested that models including persistent disease-induced mortality in juveniles qualitatively matched observed population trajectories, whereas models that only incorporated all-age disease events did not. We use these results to argue that pathogen persistence may pose a lasting, but under-recognized, threat to host populations, particularly in cases where clinical disease manifests primarily in juveniles. PMID:27859120

Disease introduction is associated with a phase transition in bighorn sheep demographics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manlove, Kezia; Cassirer, E. Frances; Cross, Paul C.; Plowright, Raina K.; Hudson, Peter J.

2016-01-01

Ecological theory suggests that pathogens are capable of regulating or limiting host population dynamics, and this relationship has been empirically established in several settings. However, although studies of childhood diseases were integral to the development of disease ecology, few studies show population limitation by a disease affecting juveniles. Here, we present empirical evidence that disease in lambs constrains population growth in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) based on 45 years of population-level and 18 years of individual-level monitoring across 12 populations. While populations generally increased (λ = 1.11) prior to disease introduction, most of these same populations experienced an abrupt change in trajectory at the time of disease invasion, usually followed by stagnant-to-declining growth rates (λ = 0.98) over the next 20 years. Disease-induced juvenile mortality imposed strong constraints on population growth that were not observed prior to disease introduction, even as adult survival returned to pre-invasion levels. Simulations suggested that models including persistent disease-induced mortality in juveniles qualitatively matched observed population trajectories, whereas models that only incorporated all-age disease events did not. We use these results to argue that pathogen persistence may pose a lasting, but under-recognized, threat to host populations, particularly in cases where clinical disease manifests primarily in juveniles.

The Relationship between Non-Cognitive Coaching Interventions and College Student Persistence at a Rural Community College

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Valora, Jenniffer

2017-01-01

The purpose of this quantitative correlation study was to contribute empirical research findings concerning the relationship of non-cognitive coaching interventions on at-risk student persistence at a rural public community college located in northwest New Mexico. The sample population included 210 undergraduate at-risk students who an alert was…

Temporal dynamics of ‘HoBi’-like pestivirus quasispecies in persistently infected calves generated under experimental conditions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

‘HoBi’-like virus is an atypical group within the Pestivirus genus that is implicated in economic losses for cattle producers due to both acute and persistent infections. Pestivirus strains exist as quasispecies (swarms of individual viruses) in infected animals and the viral populations making up t...

The Persistence and Stability of Psychiatric Problems in Adolescents with Autism Spectrum Disorders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simonoff, Emily; Jones, Catherine R. G.; Baird, Gillian; Pickles, Andrew; Happe, Francesca; Charman, Tony

2013-01-01

Background: Psychiatric problems are common in autism spectrum disorders (ASDs), but the reasons are poorly understood. We use a longitudinal population-representative cohort to examine for the first time the persistence of psychiatric problems and to identify risk factors for their occurrence and stability. Methods: Eighty-one 16-year olds (75…

Persistence of invading gypsy moth populations in the United States

Treesearch

Stefanie L. Whitmire; Patrick C. Tobin

2006-01-01

Abstract Exotic invasive species are a mounting threat to native biodiversity, and their effects are gaining more public attention as each new species is detected. Equally important are the dynamics of exotic invasives that are previously well established. While the literature reports many examples of the ability of a newly arrived exotic invader to persist prior to...

Factors Influencing Transition and Persistence in the First Year for Community College Students with Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Corcoran, Lori A.

2010-01-01

Community colleges have always played a crucial role in providing access to college, especially for students with disabilities. At the same time the rate of completion is exceptionally low for this particular population (Belch, 2004). In order to improve persistence and achievement measurably, colleges may seek clues in successful transitions by…

Dual Enrollment: An Integration Strategy for College Persistence and Achievement among First-Generation Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carey, Alisha Renee

2015-01-01

Educational and political leaders across the nation seek to create a more educated population in order to compete in a global technology-oriented society and to increase earning potential of workers. Colleges and universities are currently seeking ways to increase persistence and achievement in order to produce more college graduates. Georgia's…

Hormonally mediated maternal effects, individual strategy and global change

PubMed Central

Meylan, Sandrine; Miles, Donald B.; Clobert, Jean

2012-01-01

A challenge to ecologists and evolutionary biologists is predicting organismal responses to the anticipated changes to global ecosystems through climate change. Most evidence suggests that short-term global change may involve increasing occurrences of extreme events, therefore the immediate response of individuals will be determined by physiological capacities and life-history adaptations to cope with extreme environmental conditions. Here, we consider the role of hormones and maternal effects in determining the persistence of species in altered environments. Hormones, specifically steroids, are critical for patterning the behaviour and morphology of parents and their offspring. Hence, steroids have a pervasive influence on multiple aspects of the offspring phenotype over its lifespan. Stress hormones, e.g. glucocorticoids, modulate and perturb phenotypes both early in development and later into adulthood. Females exposed to abiotic stressors during reproduction may alter the phenotypes by manipulation of hormones to the embryos. Thus, hormone-mediated maternal effects, which generate phenotypic plasticity, may be one avenue for coping with global change. Variation in exposure to hormones during development influences both the propensity to disperse, which alters metapopulation dynamics, and population dynamics, by affecting either recruitment to the population or subsequent life-history characteristics of the offspring. We suggest that hormones may be an informative index to the potential for populations to adapt to changing environments. PMID:22566673