Patchy reaction-diffusion and population abundance: the relative importance of habitat amount and arrangement

Treesearch

Curtis H. Flather; Michael Bevers

2002-01-01

A discrete reaction-diffusion model was used to estimate long-term equilibrium populations of a hypothetical species inhabiting patchy landscapes to examine the relative importance of habitat amount and arrangement in explaining population size. When examined over a broad range of habitat amounts and arrangements, population size was largely determined by a pure amount...

Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism.

PubMed

Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R

2015-08-01

Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

2015-08-01

Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

Diel Variation in Population Size and Ice Nucleation Activity of Pseudomonas syringae on Snap Bean Leaflets.

PubMed

Hirano, S S; Upper, C D

1989-03-01

The extent to which diel changes in the physical environment affect changes in population size and ice nucleation activity of Pseudomonas syringae on snap bean leaflets was determined under field conditions. To estimate bacterial population size and ice nucleation activity, bean leaflets were harvested at 2-h intervals during each of three 26-h periods. A tube nucleation test was used to assay individual leaflets for ice nuclei. Population sizes of P. syringae were determined by dilution plating of leaflet homogenates. The overall diel changes in P. syringae population sizes differed during each of the 26-h periods. In one 26-h period, there was a continuous increase in the logarithm of P. syringae population size despite intense solar radiation, absence of free moisture on leaf surfaces, and low relative humidity during the day. A mean doubling time of approximately 4.9 h was estimated for the 28-fold increase in P. syringae population size that occurred from 0900 to 0900 h during the 26-h period. However, doubling times of 3.3 and 1.9 h occurred briefly during this period from 1700 to 2300 h and from 0100 to 0700 h, respectively. Thus, growth rates of P. syringae in association with leaves in the field were of the same order of magnitude as optimal rates measured in the laboratory. The frequency with which leaflets bore ice nuclei active at -2.0, -2.2, and -2.5 degrees C varied greatly within each 26-h period. These large diel changes were inversely correlated primarily with the diel changes in air temperature and reflected changes in nucleation frequency rather than changes in population size of P. syringae. Thus, the response of bacterial ice nucleation activity to the physical environment was distinct from the changes in population size of ice nucleation-active P. syringae.

Population Size and Suicide in U.S. Cities: A Static and Dynamic Exploration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCall, Patricia L.; Tittle, Charles R.

2007-01-01

The relationship between city population size and suicide rates rarely has been examined directly, though scholars often assume such a relationship exists based on studies of the association between suicide rates and urbanization (percent of the population living in cities) in various social contexts. In an effort to determine the basic…

The demographic consequences of growing older and bigger in oyster populations.

PubMed

Moore, Jacob L; Lipcius, Romuald N; Puckett, Brandon; Schreiber, Sebastian J

2016-10-01

Structured population models, particularly size- or age-structured, have a long history of informing conservation and natural resource management. While size is often easier to measure than age and is the focus of many management strategies, age-structure can have important effects on population dynamics that are not captured in size-only models. However, relatively few studies have included the simultaneous effects of both age- and size-structure. To better understand how population structure, particularly that of age and size, impacts restoration and management decisions, we developed and compared a size-structured integral projection model (IPM) and an age- and size-structured IPM, using a population of Crassostrea gigas oysters in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. We analyzed sensitivity of model results across values of local retention that give populations decreasing in size to populations increasing in size. We found that age- and size-structured models yielded the best fit to the demographic data and provided more reliable results about long-term demography. Elasticity analysis showed that population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in the survival of both large (>175 mm shell length) and small (<75 mm shell length) oysters, indicating that a maximum size limit, in addition to a minimum size limit, could be an effective strategy for maintaining a sustainable population. In contrast, the purely size-structured model did not detect the importance of large individuals. Finally, patterns in stable age and stable size distributions differed between populations decreasing in size due to limited local retention and populations increasing in size due to high local retention. These patterns can be used to determine population status and restoration success. The methodology described here provides general insight into the necessity of including both age- and size-structure into modeling frameworks when using population models to inform restoration and management decisions. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Determining the functional form of density dependence: deductive approaches for consumer-resource systems having a single resource.

PubMed

Abrams, Peter A

2009-09-01

Consumer-resource models are used to deduce the functional form of density dependence in the consumer population. A general approach to determining the form of consumer density dependence is proposed; this involves determining the equilibrium (or average) population size for a series of different harvest rates. The relationship between a consumer's mortality and its equilibrium population size is explored for several one-consumer/one-resource models. The shape of density dependence in the resource and the shape of the numerical and functional responses all tend to be "inherited" by the consumer's density dependence. Consumer-resource models suggest that density dependence will very often have both concave and convex segments, something that is impossible under the commonly used theta-logistic model. A range of consumer-resource models predicts that consumer population size often declines at a decelerating rate with mortality at low mortality rates, is insensitive to or increases with mortality over a wide range of intermediate mortalities, and declines at a rapidly accelerating rate with increased mortality when mortality is high. This has important implications for management and conservation of natural populations.

The evolutionary legacy of size-selective harvesting extends from genes to populations

PubMed Central

Uusi-Heikkilä, Silva; Whiteley, Andrew R; Kuparinen, Anna; Matsumura, Shuichi; Venturelli, Paul A; Wolter, Christian; Slate, Jon; Primmer, Craig R; Meinelt, Thomas; Killen, Shaun S; Bierbach, David; Polverino, Giovanni; Ludwig, Arne; Arlinghaus, Robert

2015-01-01

Size-selective harvesting is assumed to alter life histories of exploited fish populations, thereby negatively affecting population productivity, recovery, and yield. However, demonstrating that fisheries-induced phenotypic changes in the wild are at least partly genetically determined has proved notoriously difficult. Moreover, the population-level consequences of fisheries-induced evolution are still being controversially discussed. Using an experimental approach, we found that five generations of size-selective harvesting altered the life histories and behavior, but not the metabolic rate, of wild-origin zebrafish (Danio rerio). Fish adapted to high positively size selective fishing pressure invested more in reproduction, reached a smaller adult body size, and were less explorative and bold. Phenotypic changes seemed subtle but were accompanied by genetic changes in functional loci. Thus, our results provided unambiguous evidence for rapid, harvest-induced phenotypic and evolutionary change when harvesting is intensive and size selective. According to a life-history model, the observed life-history changes elevated population growth rate in harvested conditions, but slowed population recovery under a simulated moratorium. Hence, the evolutionary legacy of size-selective harvesting includes populations that are productive under exploited conditions, but selectively disadvantaged to cope with natural selection pressures that often favor large body size. PMID:26136825

Interactions between demography and environmental effects are important determinants of population dynamics

PubMed Central

Gamelon, Marlène; Grøtan, Vidar; Nilsson, Anna L. K.; Engen, Steinar; Hurrell, James W.; Jerstad, Kurt; Phillips, Adam S.; Røstad, Ole W.; Slagsvold, Tore; Walseng, Bjørn; Stenseth, Nils C.; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2017-01-01

Climate change will affect the population dynamics of many species, yet the consequences for the long-term persistence of populations are poorly understood. A major reason for this is that density-dependent feedback effects caused by fluctuations in population size are considered independent of stochastic variation in the environment. We show that an interplay between winter temperature and population density can influence the persistence of a small passerine population under global warming. Although warmer winters favor an increased mean population size, density-dependent feedback can cause the local population to be less buffered against occasional poor environmental conditions (cold winters). This shows that it is essential to go beyond the population size and explore climate effects on the full dynamics to elaborate targeted management actions. PMID:28164157

Population size, center-periphery, and seed dispersers' effects on the genetic diversity and population structure of the Mediterranean relict shrub Cneorum tricoccon.

PubMed

Lázaro-Nogal, Ana; Matesanz, Silvia; García-Fernández, Alfredo; Traveset, Anna; Valladares, Fernando

2017-09-01

The effect of population size on population genetic diversity and structure has rarely been studied jointly with other factors such as the position of a population within the species' distribution range or the presence of mutualistic partners influencing dispersal. Understanding these determining factors for genetic variation is critical for conservation of relict plants that are generally suffering from genetic deterioration. Working with 16 populations of the vulnerable relict shrub Cneorum tricoccon throughout the majority of its western Mediterranean distribution range, and using nine polymorphic microsatellite markers, we examined the effects of periphery (peripheral vs. central), population size (large vs. small), and seed disperser (introduced carnivores vs. endemic lizards) on the genetic diversity and population structure of the species. Contrasting genetic variation ( H E : 0.04-0.476) was found across populations. Peripheral populations showed lower genetic diversity, but this was dependent on population size. Large peripheral populations showed high levels of genetic diversity, whereas small central populations were less diverse. Significant isolation by distance was detected, indicating that the effect of long-distance gene flow is limited relative to that of genetic drift, probably due to high selfing rates ( F IS  = 0.155-0.887), restricted pollen flow, and ineffective seed dispersal. Bayesian clustering also supported the strong population differentiation and highly fragmented structure. Contrary to expectations, the type of disperser showed no significant effect on either population genetic diversity or structure. Our results challenge the idea of an effect of periphery per se that can be mainly explained by population size, drawing attention to the need of integrative approaches considering different determinants of genetic variation. Furthermore, the very low genetic diversity observed in several small populations and the strong among-population differentiation highlight the conservation value of large populations throughout the species' range, particularly in light of climate change and direct human threats.

Group size in social-ecological systems.

PubMed

Casari, Marco; Tagliapietra, Claudio

2018-03-13

Cooperation becomes more difficult as a group becomes larger, but it is unclear where it will break down. Here, we study group size within well-functioning social-ecological systems. We consider centuries-old evidence from hundreds of communities in the Alps that harvested common property resources. Results show that the average group size remained remarkably stable over about six centuries, in contrast to a general increase in the regional population. The population more than doubled, but although single groups experienced fluctuations over time, the average group size remained stable. Ecological factors, such as managing forest instead of pasture land, played a minor role in determining group size. The evidence instead indicates that factors related to social interactions had a significant role in determining group size. We discuss possible interpretations of the findings based on constraints in individual cognition and obstacles in collective decision making.

A general methodology for population analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazov, Petar; Lazov, Igor

2014-12-01

For a given population with N - current and M - maximum number of entities, modeled by a Birth-Death Process (BDP) with size M+1, we introduce utilization parameter ρ, ratio of the primary birth and death rates in that BDP, which, physically, determines (equilibrium) macrostates of the population, and information parameter ν, which has an interpretation as population information stiffness. The BDP, modeling the population, is in the state n, n=0,1,…,M, if N=n. In presence of these two key metrics, applying continuity law, equilibrium balance equations concerning the probability distribution pn, n=0,1,…,M, of the quantity N, pn=Prob{N=n}, in equilibrium, and conservation law, and relying on the fundamental concepts population information and population entropy, we develop a general methodology for population analysis; thereto, by definition, population entropy is uncertainty, related to the population. In this approach, what is its essential contribution, the population information consists of three basic parts: elastic (Hooke's) or absorption/emission part, synchronization or inelastic part and null part; the first two parts, which determine uniquely the null part (the null part connects them), are the two basic components of the Information Spectrum of the population. Population entropy, as mean value of population information, follows this division of the information. A given population can function in information elastic, antielastic and inelastic regime. In an information linear population, the synchronization part of the information and entropy is absent. The population size, M+1, is the third key metric in this methodology. Namely, right supposing a population with infinite size, the most of the key quantities and results for populations with finite size, emerged in this methodology, vanish.

Determination of the optimal sample size for a clinical trial accounting for the population size.

PubMed

Stallard, Nigel; Miller, Frank; Day, Simon; Hee, Siew Wan; Madan, Jason; Zohar, Sarah; Posch, Martin

2017-07-01

The problem of choosing a sample size for a clinical trial is a very common one. In some settings, such as rare diseases or other small populations, the large sample sizes usually associated with the standard frequentist approach may be infeasible, suggesting that the sample size chosen should reflect the size of the population under consideration. Incorporation of the population size is possible in a decision-theoretic approach either explicitly by assuming that the population size is fixed and known, or implicitly through geometric discounting of the gain from future patients reflecting the expected population size. This paper develops such approaches. Building on previous work, an asymptotic expression is derived for the sample size for single and two-arm clinical trials in the general case of a clinical trial with a primary endpoint with a distribution of one parameter exponential family form that optimizes a utility function that quantifies the cost and gain per patient as a continuous function of this parameter. It is shown that as the size of the population, N, or expected size, N∗ in the case of geometric discounting, becomes large, the optimal trial size is O(N1/2) or O(N∗1/2). The sample size obtained from the asymptotic expression is also compared with the exact optimal sample size in examples with responses with Bernoulli and Poisson distributions, showing that the asymptotic approximations can also be reasonable in relatively small sample sizes. © 2016 The Author. Biometrical Journal published by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Independent Demographic Responses to Climate Change among Temperate and Tropical Milksnakes (Colubridae: Genus Lampropeltis)

PubMed Central

Ruane, Sara; Torres-Carvajal, Omar; Burbrink, Frank T.

2015-01-01

The effects of Late Quaternary climate change have been examined for many temperate New World taxa, but the impact of Pleistocene glacial cycles on Neotropical taxa is less well understood, specifically with respect to changes in population demography. Here, we examine historical demographic trends for six species of milksnake with representatives in both the temperate and tropical Americas to determine if species share responses to climate change as a taxon or by area (i.e., temperate versus tropical environments). Using a multilocus dataset, we test for the demographic signature of population expansion and decline using non-genealogical summary statistics, as well as coalescent-based methods. In addition, we determine whether range sizes are correlated with effective population sizes for milksnakes. Results indicate that there are no identifiable trends with respect to demographic response based on location, and that species responded to changing climates independently, with tropical taxa showing greater instability. There is also no correlation between range size and effective population size, with the largest population size belonging to the species with the smallest geographic distribution. Our study highlights the importance of not generalizing the demographic histories of taxa by region and further illustrates that the New World tropics may not have been a stable refuge during the Pleistocene. PMID:26083467

Independent Demographic Responses to Climate Change among Temperate and Tropical Milksnakes (Colubridae: Genus Lampropeltis).

PubMed

Ruane, Sara; Torres-Carvajal, Omar; Burbrink, Frank T

2015-01-01

The effects of Late Quaternary climate change have been examined for many temperate New World taxa, but the impact of Pleistocene glacial cycles on Neotropical taxa is less well understood, specifically with respect to changes in population demography. Here, we examine historical demographic trends for six species of milksnake with representatives in both the temperate and tropical Americas to determine if species share responses to climate change as a taxon or by area (i.e., temperate versus tropical environments). Using a multilocus dataset, we test for the demographic signature of population expansion and decline using non-genealogical summary statistics, as well as coalescent-based methods. In addition, we determine whether range sizes are correlated with effective population sizes for milksnakes. Results indicate that there are no identifiable trends with respect to demographic response based on location, and that species responded to changing climates independently, with tropical taxa showing greater instability. There is also no correlation between range size and effective population size, with the largest population size belonging to the species with the smallest geographic distribution. Our study highlights the importance of not generalizing the demographic histories of taxa by region and further illustrates that the New World tropics may not have been a stable refuge during the Pleistocene.

The Socioecology of Territory Size and a "Work-Around" Hypothesis for the Adoption of Farming

PubMed Central

Freeman, Jacob

2016-01-01

This paper combines theory from ecology and anthropology to investigate variation in the territory sizes of subsistence oriented agricultural societies. The results indicate that population and the dependence of individuals within a society on “wild” foods partly determine the territory sizes of agricultural societies. In contrast, the productivity of an agroecosystem is not an important determinant of territory size. A comparison of the population-territory size scaling dynamics of agricultural societies and human foragers indicates that foragers and farmers face the same constraints on their ability to expand their territory and intensify their use of resources within a territory. However, the higher density of food in an agroecosystem allows farmers, on average, to live at much higher population densities than human foragers. These macroecological patterns are consistent with a “work-around hypothesis” for the adoption of farming. This hypothesis is that as residential groups of foragers increase in size, farming can sometimes better reduce the tension between an individual’s autonomy over resources and the need for social groups to function to provide public goods like defense and information. PMID:27391955

Repeated Habitat Disturbances by Fire Decrease Local Effective Population Size

PubMed Central

Ragsdale, Alexandria K.; McCoy, Earl D.; Mushinsky, Henry R.

2016-01-01

Effective population size is a fundamental parameter in population genetics, and factors that alter effective population size will shape the genetic characteristics of populations. Habitat disturbance may have a large effect on genetic characteristics of populations by influencing immigration and gene flow, particularly in fragmented habitats. We used the Florida Sand Skink (Plestiodon reynoldsi) to investigate the effect of fire-based habitat disturbances on the effective population size in the highly threatened, severely fragmented, and fire dependent Florida scrub habitat. We screened 7 microsatellite loci in 604 individuals collected from 12 locations at Archbold Biological Station. Archbold Biological Station has an active fire management plan and detailed records of fires dating to 1967. Our objective was to determine how the timing, number, and intervals between fires affect effective population size, focusing on multiple fires in the same location. Effective population size was higher in areas that had not been burned for more than 10 years and decreased with number of fires and shorter time between fires. A similar pattern was observed in abundance: increasing abundance with time-since-fire and decreasing abundance with number of fires. The ratio of effective population size to census size was higher at sites with more recent fires and tended to decrease with time-since-last-fire. These results suggest that habitat disturbances, such as fire, may have a large effect in the genetic characteristics of local populations and that Florida Sand Skinks are well adapted to the natural fire dynamics required to maintain Florida scrub. PMID:26976940

Estimating the breeding population of long-billed curlew in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, T.R.; Skagen, S.K.

2007-01-01

Determining population size and long-term trends in population size for species of high concern is a priority of international, national, and regional conservation plans. Long-billed curlews (Numenius americanus) are a species of special concern in North America due to apparent declines in their population. Because long-billed curlews are not adequately monitored by existing programs, we undertook a 2-year study with the goals of 1) determining present long-billed curlew distribution and breeding population size in the United States and 2) providing recommendations for a long-term long-billed curlew monitoring protocol. We selected a stratified random sample of survey routes in 16 western states for sampling in 2004 and 2005, and we analyzed count data from these routes to estimate detection probabilities and abundance. In addition, we evaluated habitat along roadsides to determine how well roadsides represented habitat throughout the sampling units. We estimated there were 164,515 (SE = 42,047) breeding long-billed curlews in 2004, and 109,533 (SE = 31,060) breeding individuals in 2005. These estimates far exceed currently accepted estimates based on expert opinion. We found that habitat along roadsides was representative of long-billed curlew habitat in general. We make recommendations for improving sampling methodology, and we present power curves to provide guidance on minimum sample sizes required to detect trends in abundance.

Determining population size of territorial red-winged blackbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Albers, P.H.

1976-01-01

Population sizes of territorial male red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) were determined with counts of territorial males (area count) and a Petersen-Lincoln Index method for roadsides (roadside estimate). Weather conditions and time of day did not influence either method. Combined roadside estimates had smaller error bounds than the individual transect estimates and were not hindered by the problem of zero recaptures. Roadside estimates were usually one-half as large as the area counts, presumably due to an observer bias for marked birds. The roadside estimate provides only an index of major changes in populations of territorial male redwings. When the roadside estimate is employed, the area count should be used to determine the amount and nature of observer bias. For small population surveys, the area count is probably more reliable and accurate than the roadside estimate.

Improving size estimates of open animal populations by incorporating information on age

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manly, Bryan F.J.; McDonald, Trent L.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Regehr, Eric V.

2003-01-01

Around the world, a great deal of effort is expended each year to estimate the sizes of wild animal populations. Unfortunately, population size has proven to be one of the most intractable parameters to estimate. The capture-recapture estimation models most commonly used (of the Jolly-Seber type) are complicated and require numerous, sometimes questionable, assumptions. The derived estimates usually have large variances and lack consistency over time. In capture–recapture studies of long-lived animals, the ages of captured animals can often be determined with great accuracy and relative ease. We show how to incorporate age information into size estimates for open populations, where the size changes through births, deaths, immigration, and emigration. The proposed method allows more precise estimates of population size than the usual models, and it can provide these estimates from two sample occasions rather than the three usually required. Moreover, this method does not require specialized programs for capture-recapture data; researchers can derive their estimates using the logistic regression module in any standard statistical package.

Population size estimation in Yellowstone wolves with error-prone noninvasive microsatellite genotypes.

PubMed

Creel, Scott; Spong, Goran; Sands, Jennifer L; Rotella, Jay; Zeigle, Janet; Joe, Lawrence; Murphy, Kerry M; Smith, Douglas

2003-07-01

Determining population sizes can be difficult, but is essential for conservation. By counting distinct microsatellite genotypes, DNA from noninvasive samples (hair, faeces) allows estimation of population size. Problems arise because genotypes from noninvasive samples are error-prone, but genotyping errors can be reduced by multiple polymerase chain reaction (PCR). For faecal genotypes from wolves in Yellowstone National Park, error rates varied substantially among samples, often above the 'worst-case threshold' suggested by simulation. Consequently, a substantial proportion of multilocus genotypes held one or more errors, despite multiple PCR. These genotyping errors created several genotypes per individual and caused overestimation (up to 5.5-fold) of population size. We propose a 'matching approach' to eliminate this overestimation bias.

The adaptive value of morphological, behavioural and life-history traits in reproductive female wolves.

PubMed

Stahler, Daniel R; MacNulty, Daniel R; Wayne, Robert K; vonHoldt, Bridgett; Smith, Douglas W

2013-01-01

Reproduction in social organisms is shaped by numerous morphological, behavioural and life-history traits such as body size, cooperative breeding and age of reproduction, respectively. Little is known, however, about the relative influence of these different types of traits on reproduction, particularly in the context of environmental conditions that determine their adaptive value. Here, we use 14 years of data from a long-term study of wolves (Canis lupus) in Yellowstone National Park, USA, to evaluate the relative effects of different traits and ecological factors on the reproductive performance (litter size and survival) of breeding females. At the individual level, litter size and survival improved with body mass and declined with age (c. 4-5 years). Grey-coloured females had more surviving pups than black females, which likely contributed to the maintenance of coat colour polymorphism in this system. The effect of pack size on reproductive performance was nonlinear as litter size peaked at eight wolves and then declined, and litter survival increased rapidly up to three wolves, beyond which it increased more gradually. At the population level, litter size and survival decreased with increasing wolf population size and canine distemper outbreaks. The relative influence of these different-level factors on wolf reproductive success followed individual > group > population. Body mass was the primary determinant of litter size, followed by pack size and population size. Body mass was also the main driver of litter survival, followed by pack size and disease. Reproductive gains because of larger body size and cooperative breeding may mitigate reproductive losses because of negative density dependence and disease. These findings highlight the adaptive value of large body size and sociality in promoting individual fitness in stochastic and competitive environments. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Research on Grid Size Suitability of Gridded Population Distribution in Urban Area: A Case Study in Urban Area of Xuanzhou District, China.

PubMed

Dong, Nan; Yang, Xiaohuan; Cai, Hongyan; Xu, Fengjiao

2017-01-01

The research on the grid size suitability is important to provide improvement in accuracies of gridded population distribution. It contributes to reveal the actual spatial distribution of population. However, currently little research has been done in this area. Many well-modeled gridded population dataset are basically built at a single grid scale. If the grid cell size is not appropriate, it will result in spatial information loss or data redundancy. Therefore, in order to capture the desired spatial variation of population within the area of interest, it is necessary to conduct research on grid size suitability. This study summarized three expressed levels to analyze grid size suitability, which include location expressed level, numeric information expressed level, and spatial relationship expressed level. This study elaborated the reasons for choosing the five indexes to explore expression suitability. These five indexes are consistency measure, shape index rate, standard deviation of population density, patches diversity index, and the average local variance. The suitable grid size was determined by constructing grid size-indicator value curves and suitable grid size scheme. Results revealed that the three expressed levels on 10m grid scale are satisfying. And the population distribution raster data with 10m grid size provide excellent accuracy without loss. The 10m grid size is recommended as the appropriate scale for generating a high-quality gridded population distribution in our study area. Based on this preliminary study, it indicates the five indexes are coordinated with each other and reasonable and effective to assess grid size suitability. We also suggest choosing these five indexes in three perspectives of expressed level to carry out the research on grid size suitability of gridded population distribution.

Research on Grid Size Suitability of Gridded Population Distribution in Urban Area: A Case Study in Urban Area of Xuanzhou District, China

PubMed Central

Dong, Nan; Yang, Xiaohuan; Cai, Hongyan; Xu, Fengjiao

2017-01-01

The research on the grid size suitability is important to provide improvement in accuracies of gridded population distribution. It contributes to reveal the actual spatial distribution of population. However, currently little research has been done in this area. Many well-modeled gridded population dataset are basically built at a single grid scale. If the grid cell size is not appropriate, it will result in spatial information loss or data redundancy. Therefore, in order to capture the desired spatial variation of population within the area of interest, it is necessary to conduct research on grid size suitability. This study summarized three expressed levels to analyze grid size suitability, which include location expressed level, numeric information expressed level, and spatial relationship expressed level. This study elaborated the reasons for choosing the five indexes to explore expression suitability. These five indexes are consistency measure, shape index rate, standard deviation of population density, patches diversity index, and the average local variance. The suitable grid size was determined by constructing grid size-indicator value curves and suitable grid size scheme. Results revealed that the three expressed levels on 10m grid scale are satisfying. And the population distribution raster data with 10m grid size provide excellent accuracy without loss. The 10m grid size is recommended as the appropriate scale for generating a high-quality gridded population distribution in our study area. Based on this preliminary study, it indicates the five indexes are coordinated with each other and reasonable and effective to assess grid size suitability. We also suggest choosing these five indexes in three perspectives of expressed level to carry out the research on grid size suitability of gridded population distribution. PMID:28122050

Estimating the probability that the sample mean is within a desired fraction of the standard deviation of the true mean.

PubMed

Schillaci, Michael A; Schillaci, Mario E

2009-02-01

The use of small sample sizes in human and primate evolutionary research is commonplace. Estimating how well small samples represent the underlying population, however, is not commonplace. Because the accuracy of determinations of taxonomy, phylogeny, and evolutionary process are dependant upon how well the study sample represents the population of interest, characterizing the uncertainty, or potential error, associated with analyses of small sample sizes is essential. We present a method for estimating the probability that the sample mean is within a desired fraction of the standard deviation of the true mean using small (n<10) or very small (n < or = 5) sample sizes. This method can be used by researchers to determine post hoc the probability that their sample is a meaningful approximation of the population parameter. We tested the method using a large craniometric data set commonly used by researchers in the field. Given our results, we suggest that sample estimates of the population mean can be reasonable and meaningful even when based on small, and perhaps even very small, sample sizes.

Population-Based Resequencing of Experimentally Evolved Populations Reveals the Genetic Basis of Body Size Variation in Drosophila melanogaster

PubMed Central

Turner, Thomas L.; Stewart, Andrew D.; Fields, Andrew T.; Rice, William R.; Tarone, Aaron M.

2011-01-01

Body size is a classic quantitative trait with evolutionarily significant variation within many species. Locating the alleles responsible for this variation would help understand the maintenance of variation in body size in particular, as well as quantitative traits in general. However, successful genome-wide association of genotype and phenotype may require very large sample sizes if alleles have low population frequencies or modest effects. As a complementary approach, we propose that population-based resequencing of experimentally evolved populations allows for considerable power to map functional variation. Here, we use this technique to investigate the genetic basis of natural variation in body size in Drosophila melanogaster. Significant differentiation of hundreds of loci in replicate selection populations supports the hypothesis that the genetic basis of body size variation is very polygenic in D. melanogaster. Significantly differentiated variants are limited to single genes at some loci, allowing precise hypotheses to be formed regarding causal polymorphisms, while other significant regions are large and contain many genes. By using significantly associated polymorphisms as a priori candidates in follow-up studies, these data are expected to provide considerable power to determine the genetic basis of natural variation in body size. PMID:21437274

Repeated Habitat Disturbances by Fire Decrease Local Effective Population Size.

PubMed

Schrey, Aaron W; Ragsdale, Alexandria K; McCoy, Earl D; Mushinsky, Henry R

2016-07-01

Effective population size is a fundamental parameter in population genetics, and factors that alter effective population size will shape the genetic characteristics of populations. Habitat disturbance may have a large effect on genetic characteristics of populations by influencing immigration and gene flow, particularly in fragmented habitats. We used the Florida Sand Skink (Plestiodon reynoldsi) to investigate the effect of fire-based habitat disturbances on the effective population size in the highly threatened, severely fragmented, and fire dependent Florida scrub habitat. We screened 7 microsatellite loci in 604 individuals collected from 12 locations at Archbold Biological Station. Archbold Biological Station has an active fire management plan and detailed records of fires dating to 1967. Our objective was to determine how the timing, number, and intervals between fires affect effective population size, focusing on multiple fires in the same location. Effective population size was higher in areas that had not been burned for more than 10 years and decreased with number of fires and shorter time between fires. A similar pattern was observed in abundance: increasing abundance with time-since-fire and decreasing abundance with number of fires. The ratio of effective population size to census size was higher at sites with more recent fires and tended to decrease with time-since-last-fire. These results suggest that habitat disturbances, such as fire, may have a large effect in the genetic characteristics of local populations and that Florida Sand Skinks are well adapted to the natural fire dynamics required to maintain Florida scrub. © The American Genetic Association. 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Thermodynamics and Human Population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cordry, Sean M.

2010-09-01

This paper discusses a Fermi-problem exercise through which I take students in several of my college courses. Students work in teams, determining the average daily Caloric needs per person. Then they use insolation values to determine the size of a collection area needed to absorb the previously determined daily energy requirements. Adjustments to the size of the collection area are made based on energy absorption per biological trophic level, as well as the consideration that most diets are a mixture of plant- and animal-derived elements. Finally, using the total amount of farmland available on the planet, students calculate a maximum population value. Although the maximum population values derived herewith should not be considered authoritative, the exercise has three beneficial purposes: 1) a chance to talk about the modeling process and extrapolations, 2) an unexpected application of physics to social contexts, and 3) raising student awareness of population and energy issues.

Public Opinion Polls, Chicken Soup and Sample Size

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nguyen, Phung

2005-01-01

Cooking and tasting chicken soup in three different pots of very different size serves to demonstrate that it is the absolute sample size that matters the most in determining the accuracy of the findings of the poll, not the relative sample size, i.e. the size of the sample in relation to its population.

Monarch butterfly population decline in North America: identifying the threatening processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Oberhauser, Karen; Drum, Ryan G.; Diffendorfer, Jay E.; Altizer, Sonia; Taylor, Orley R.; Pleasants, John M.; Semmens, Darius J.; Semmens, Brice X.; Erickson, Richard A.; Libby, Kaitlin; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura

2017-01-01

The monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) population in North America has sharply declined over the last two decades. Despite rising concern over the monarch butterfly's status, no comprehensive study of the factors driving this decline has been conducted. Using partial least-squares regressions and time-series analysis, we investigated climatic and habitat-related factors influencing monarch population size from 1993 to 2014. Potential threats included climatic factors, habitat loss (milkweed and overwinter forest), disease and agricultural insecticide use (neonicotinoids). While climatic factors, principally breeding season temperature, were important determinants of annual variation in abundance, our results indicated strong negative relationships between population size and habitat loss variables, principally glyphosate use, but also weaker negative effects from the loss of overwinter forest and breeding season use of neonicotinoids. Further declines in population size because of glyphosate application are not expected. Thus, if remaining threats to habitat are mitigated we expect climate-induced stochastic variation of the eastern migratory population of monarch butterfly around a relatively stationary population size.

Variation in Age and Size in Fennoscandian Three-Spined Sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus)

PubMed Central

DeFaveri, Jacquelin; Merilä, Juha

2013-01-01

Average age and maximum life span of breeding adult three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) were determined in eight Fennoscandian localities with the aid of skeletochronology. The average age varied from 1.8 to 3.6 years, and maximum life span from three to six years depending on the locality. On average, fish from marine populations were significantly older than those from freshwater populations, but variation within habitat types was large. We also found significant differences in mean body size among different habitat types and populations, but only the population differences remained significant after accounting for variation due to age effects. These results show that generation length and longevity in three-spined sticklebacks can vary significantly from one locality to another, and that population differences in mean body size cannot be explained as a simple consequence of differences in population age structure. We also describe a nanistic population from northern Finland exhibiting long life span and small body size. PMID:24260496

Variation in age and size in Fennoscandian three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus).

PubMed

DeFaveri, Jacquelin; Merilä, Juha

2013-01-01

Average age and maximum life span of breeding adult three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) were determined in eight Fennoscandian localities with the aid of skeletochronology. The average age varied from 1.8 to 3.6 years, and maximum life span from three to six years depending on the locality. On average, fish from marine populations were significantly older than those from freshwater populations, but variation within habitat types was large. We also found significant differences in mean body size among different habitat types and populations, but only the population differences remained significant after accounting for variation due to age effects. These results show that generation length and longevity in three-spined sticklebacks can vary significantly from one locality to another, and that population differences in mean body size cannot be explained as a simple consequence of differences in population age structure. We also describe a nanistic population from northern Finland exhibiting long life span and small body size.

The Ecological Genetics of Introduced Populations of the Giant Toad BUFO MARINUS. II. Effective Population Size

PubMed Central

Easteal, Simon

1985-01-01

The allele frequencies are described at ten polymorphic enzyme loci (of a total of 22 loci sampled) in 15 populations of the neotropical giant toad, Bufo marinus, introduced to Hawaii and Australia in the 1930s. The history of establishment of the ten populations is described and used as a framework for the analysis of allele frequency variances. The variances are used to determine the effective sizes of the populations. The estimates obtained (390 and 346) are reasonably precise, homogeneous between localities and much smaller than estimates of neighborhood size obtained previously using ecological methods. This discrepancy is discussed, and it is concluded that the estimates obtained here using genetic methods are the more reliable. PMID:3922852

Population size and density of Colobus vellerosus at the Boabeng-Fiema Monkey Sanctuary and surrounding forest fragments in Ghana.

PubMed

Wong, Sarah N P; Sicotte, Pascale

2006-05-01

The Boabeng-Fiema Monkey Sanctuary (BFMS) is inhabited by a growing population of Ursine colobus (Colobus vellerosus), a species that is listed as vulnerable. Smaller, degraded forest fragments that surround the BFMS also contain C. vellerosus and may provide an important habitat for the monkeys. Our objectives were to 1) determine the current population size and density of C. vellerosus at BFMS and in five surrounding fragments, 2) examine the differences in demographics between the fragments and BFMS, and 3) determine whether a relationship exists between population density and fragment size and isolation distance from BFMS. The census was a complete count and was conducted for 1 month (July 2003) by S.W. and trained research assistants. Seven census routes were walked simultaneously on 13 days. The 2003 population estimate of C. vellerosus at BFMS was 217-241 individuals (15 groups), a slight increase from the 2000 census. Numbers in the fragments (58-62, six groups) have remained stable since 1997, when the only other census of these fragments was conducted. Mean group size did not differ between the fragments and BFMS. Larger fragments had larger numbers of colobus, but there was no relationship between fragment size and colobus density. Isolation distance had no effect on population density. Our data suggest that colobus probably travel between fragments. Conservation efforts should focus on treating the small forests and their connecting areas as a single conservation unit. 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

On Using a Pilot Sample Variance for Sample Size Determination in the Detection of Differences between Two Means: Power Consideration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shieh, Gwowen

2013-01-01

The a priori determination of a proper sample size necessary to achieve some specified power is an important problem encountered frequently in practical studies. To establish the needed sample size for a two-sample "t" test, researchers may conduct the power analysis by specifying scientifically important values as the underlying population means…

Decision Accuracy and the Role of Spatial Interaction in Opinion Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torney, Colin J.; Levin, Simon A.; Couzin, Iain D.

2013-04-01

The opinions and actions of individuals within interacting groups are frequently determined by both social and personal information. When sociality (or the pressure to conform) is strong and individual preferences are weak, groups will remain cohesive until a consensus decision is reached. When group decisions are subject to a bias, representing for example private information known by some members of the population or imperfect information known by all, then the accuracy achieved for a fixed level of bias will increase with population size. In this work we determine how the scaling between accuracy and group size can be related to the microscopic properties of the decision-making process. By simulating a spatial model of opinion dynamics we show that the relationship between the instantaneous fraction of leaders in the population ( L), system size ( N), and accuracy depends on the frequency of individual opinion switches and the level of population viscosity. When social mixing is slow, and individual opinion changes are frequent, accuracy is determined by the absolute number of informed individuals. As mixing rates increase, or the rate of opinion updates decrease, a transition occurs to a regime where accuracy is determined by the value of L√{ N}. We investigate the transition between different scaling regimes analytically by examining a well-mixed limit.

Stability of upper face sexual dimorphism in central European populations (Czech Republic) during the modern age.

PubMed

Bejdová, Šárka; Dupej, Ján; Krajíček, Václav; Velemínská, Jana; Velemínský, Petr

2018-01-01

One of the most fundamental issues in forensic anthropology is the determination of sex and population affinity based on various skeletal elements. Therefore, we compared the sexual dimorphism of the upper facial skeleton from a recent Czech population (twenty-first century) with that of a population from Early Modern Age Bohemia (sixteenth to eighteenth centuries). Methods of geometric morphometrics were applied. According to the results, sexual dimorphism in terms of size, shape, and form was statistically significant in both populations. The best results of sex estimation originated from analyses of form. Thus, both size and shape differences should be taken into account for determination of the sex. The accuracy of prediction achieved 91.1% for individuals in the recent population and 87.5% for individuals from the early modern population. Only minor differences were found between sexual dimorphism in the studied populations. We conclude that sexual dimorphism of the upper facial skeleton is stable during the relatively short time period.

Use of an Inverse Method for Time Series to Estimate the Dynamics of and Management Strategies for the Box Jellyfish Carybdea marsupialis.

PubMed

Bordehore, Cesar; Fuentes, Verónica L; Segarra, Jose G; Acevedo, Melisa; Canepa, Antonio; Raventós, Josep

2015-01-01

Frequently, population ecology of marine organisms uses a descriptive approach in which their sizes and densities are plotted over time. This approach has limited usefulness for design strategies in management or modelling different scenarios. Population projection matrix models are among the most widely used tools in ecology. Unfortunately, for the majority of pelagic marine organisms, it is difficult to mark individuals and follow them over time to determine their vital rates and built a population projection matrix model. Nevertheless, it is possible to get time-series data to calculate size structure and densities of each size, in order to determine the matrix parameters. This approach is known as a "demographic inverse problem" and it is based on quadratic programming methods, but it has rarely been used on aquatic organisms. We used unpublished field data of a population of cubomedusae Carybdea marsupialis to construct a population projection matrix model and compare two different management strategies to lower population to values before year 2008 when there was no significant interaction with bathers. Those strategies were by direct removal of medusae and by reducing prey. Our results showed that removal of jellyfish from all size classes was more effective than removing only juveniles or adults. When reducing prey, the highest efficiency to lower the C. marsupialis population occurred when prey depletion affected prey of all medusae sizes. Our model fit well with the field data and may serve to design an efficient management strategy or build hypothetical scenarios such as removal of individuals or reducing prey. TThis This sdfsdshis method is applicable to other marine or terrestrial species, for which density and population structure over time are available.

The value of customised centiles in assessing perinatal mortality risk associated with parity and maternal size.

PubMed

Gardosi, J; Clausson, B; Francis, A

2009-09-01

We wanted to compare customised and population standards for defining smallness for gestational age (SGA) in the assessment of perinatal mortality risk associated with parity and maternal size. Population-based cohort study. Sweden. Swedish Birth Registry database 1992-1995 with 354 205 complete records. Coefficients were derived and applied to determine SGA by the fully customised method, or by adjustment for fetal sex only, and using the same fetal weight standard. Perinatal deaths and rates of small for gestational age (SGA) babies within subgroups stratified by parity, body mass index (BMI) and maternal size within the BMI range of 20.0-24.9. Perinatal mortality rates (PMR) had a U-shaped distribution in parity groups, increased proportionately with maternal BMI, and had no association with maternal size within the normal BMI range. For each of these subgroups, SGA rates determined by the customised method showed strong association with the PMR. In contrast, SGA based on uncustomised, population-based centiles had poor correlation with perinatal mortality. The increased perinatal mortality risk in pregnancies of obese mothers was associated with an increased risk of SGA using customised centiles, and a decreased risk of SGA using population-based centiles. The use of customised centiles to determine SGA improves the identification of pregnancies which are at increased risk of perinatal death.

Polar Bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amstrup, Steven C.; Douglas, David C.; Reynolds, Patricia E.; Rhode, E.B.

2002-01-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are hunted throughout most of their range. In addition to hunting polar bears of the Beaufort Sea region are exposed to mineral and petroleum extraction and related human activities such as shipping road-building, and seismic testing (Stirling 1990).Little was known at the start of this project about how polar bears move about in their environment, and although it was understood that many bears travel across political borders, the boundaries of populations had not been delineated (Amstrup 1986, Amstrup et al. 1986, Amstrup and DeMaster 1988, Garner et al. 1994, Amstrup 1995, Amstrup et al. 1995, Amstrup 2000).As human populations increase and demands for polar bears and other arctic resources escalate, managers must know the sizes and distributions of the polar bear populations. Resource managers also need reliable estimates of breeding rates, reproductive intervals, litter sizes, and survival of young and adults.Our objectives for this research were 1) to determine the seasonal and annual movements of polar bears in the Beaufort Sea, 2) to define the boundaries of the population(s) using this region, 3) to determine the size and status of the Beaufort Sea polar bear population, and 4) to establish reproduction and survival rates (Amstrup 2000).

Sociocultural behavior, sex-biased admixture, and effective population sizes in Central African Pygmies and non-Pygmies.

PubMed

Verdu, Paul; Becker, Noémie S A; Froment, Alain; Georges, Myriam; Grugni, Viola; Quintana-Murci, Lluis; Hombert, Jean-Marie; Van der Veen, Lolke; Le Bomin, Sylvie; Bahuchet, Serge; Heyer, Evelyne; Austerlitz, Frédéric

2013-04-01

Sociocultural phenomena, such as exogamy or phylopatry, can largely determine human sex-specific demography. In Central Africa, diverging patterns of sex-specific genetic variation have been observed between mobile hunter-gatherer Pygmies and sedentary agricultural non-Pygmies. However, their sex-specific demography remains largely unknown. Using population genetics and approximate Bayesian computation approaches, we inferred male and female effective population sizes, sex-specific migration, and admixture rates in 23 Central African Pygmy and non-Pygmy populations, genotyped for autosomal, X-linked, Y-linked, and mitochondrial markers. We found much larger effective population sizes and migration rates among non-Pygmy populations than among Pygmies, in agreement with the recent expansions and migrations of non-Pygmies and, conversely, the isolation and stationary demography of Pygmy groups. We found larger effective sizes and migration rates for males than for females for Pygmies, and vice versa for non-Pygmies. Thus, although most Pygmy populations have patrilocal customs, their sex-specific genetic patterns resemble those of matrilocal populations. In fact, our results are consistent with a lower prevalence of polygyny and patrilocality in Pygmies compared with non-Pygmies and a potential female transmission of reproductive success in Pygmies. Finally, Pygmy populations showed variable admixture levels with the non-Pygmies, with often much larger introgression from male than from female lineages. Social discrimination against Pygmies triggering complex movements of spouses in intermarriages can explain these male-biased admixture patterns in a patrilocal context. We show how gender-related sociocultural phenomena can determine highly variable sex-specific demography among populations, and how population genetic approaches contrasting chromosomal types allow inferring detailed human sex-specific demographic history.

Sociocultural Behavior, Sex-Biased Admixture, and Effective Population Sizes in Central African Pygmies and Non-Pygmies

PubMed Central

Verdu, Paul; Becker, Noémie S.A.; Froment, Alain; Georges, Myriam; Grugni, Viola; Quintana-Murci, Lluis; Hombert, Jean-Marie; Van der Veen, Lolke; Le Bomin, Sylvie; Bahuchet, Serge; Heyer, Evelyne; Austerlitz, Frédéric

2013-01-01

Sociocultural phenomena, such as exogamy or phylopatry, can largely determine human sex-specific demography. In Central Africa, diverging patterns of sex-specific genetic variation have been observed between mobile hunter–gatherer Pygmies and sedentary agricultural non-Pygmies. However, their sex-specific demography remains largely unknown. Using population genetics and approximate Bayesian computation approaches, we inferred male and female effective population sizes, sex-specific migration, and admixture rates in 23 Central African Pygmy and non-Pygmy populations, genotyped for autosomal, X-linked, Y-linked, and mitochondrial markers. We found much larger effective population sizes and migration rates among non-Pygmy populations than among Pygmies, in agreement with the recent expansions and migrations of non-Pygmies and, conversely, the isolation and stationary demography of Pygmy groups. We found larger effective sizes and migration rates for males than for females for Pygmies, and vice versa for non-Pygmies. Thus, although most Pygmy populations have patrilocal customs, their sex-specific genetic patterns resemble those of matrilocal populations. In fact, our results are consistent with a lower prevalence of polygyny and patrilocality in Pygmies compared with non-Pygmies and a potential female transmission of reproductive success in Pygmies. Finally, Pygmy populations showed variable admixture levels with the non-Pygmies, with often much larger introgression from male than from female lineages. Social discrimination against Pygmies triggering complex movements of spouses in intermarriages can explain these male-biased admixture patterns in a patrilocal context. We show how gender-related sociocultural phenomena can determine highly variable sex-specific demography among populations, and how population genetic approaches contrasting chromosomal types allow inferring detailed human sex-specific demographic history. PMID:23300254

The critical domain size of stochastic population models.

PubMed

Reimer, Jody R; Bonsall, Michael B; Maini, Philip K

2017-02-01

Identifying the critical domain size necessary for a population to persist is an important question in ecology. Both demographic and environmental stochasticity impact a population's ability to persist. Here we explore ways of including this variability. We study populations with distinct dispersal and sedentary stages, which have traditionally been modelled using a deterministic integrodifference equation (IDE) framework. Individual-based models (IBMs) are the most intuitive stochastic analogues to IDEs but yield few analytic insights. We explore two alternate approaches; one is a scaling up to the population level using the Central Limit Theorem, and the other a variation on both Galton-Watson branching processes and branching processes in random environments. These branching process models closely approximate the IBM and yield insight into the factors determining the critical domain size for a given population subject to stochasticity.

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events

PubMed Central

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-01-01

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an ‘extinction window’ of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the ‘extinction window’, although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. PMID:24920116

Constituents of Quality of Life and Urban Size

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Royuela, Vicente; Surinach, Jordi

2005-01-01

Do cities have an optimal size? In seeking to answer this question, various theories, including Optimal City Size Theory, the supply-oriented dynamic approach and the city network paradigm, have been forwarded that considered a city's population size as a determinant of location costs and benefits. However, the generalised growth in wealth that…

Population size influences amphibian detection probability: implications for biodiversity monitoring programs.

PubMed

Tanadini, Lorenzo G; Schmidt, Benedikt R

2011-01-01

Monitoring is an integral part of species conservation. Monitoring programs must take imperfect detection of species into account in order to be reliable. Theory suggests that detection probability may be determined by population size but this relationship has not yet been assessed empirically. Population size is particularly important because it may induce heterogeneity in detection probability and thereby cause bias in estimates of biodiversity. We used a site occupancy model to analyse data from a volunteer-based amphibian monitoring program to assess how well different variables explain variation in detection probability. An index to population size best explained detection probabilities for four out of six species (to avoid circular reasoning, we used the count of individuals at a previous site visit as an index to current population size). The relationship between the population index and detection probability was positive. Commonly used weather variables best explained detection probabilities for two out of six species. Estimates of site occupancy probabilities differed depending on whether the population index was or was not used to model detection probability. The relationship between the population index and detectability has implications for the design of monitoring and species conservation. Most importantly, because many small populations are likely to be overlooked, monitoring programs should be designed in such a way that small populations are not overlooked. The results also imply that methods cannot be standardized in such a way that detection probabilities are constant. As we have shown here, one can easily account for variation in population size in the analysis of data from long-term monitoring programs by using counts of individuals from surveys at the same site in previous years. Accounting for variation in population size is important because it can affect the results of long-term monitoring programs and ultimately the conservation of imperiled species.

A size-structured model of bacterial growth and reproduction.

PubMed

Ellermeyer, S F; Pilyugin, S S

2012-01-01

We consider a size-structured bacterial population model in which the rate of cell growth is both size- and time-dependent and the average per capita reproduction rate is specified as a model parameter. It is shown that the model admits classical solutions. The population-level and distribution-level behaviours of these solutions are then determined in terms of the model parameters. The distribution-level behaviour is found to be different from that found in similar models of bacterial population dynamics. Rather than convergence to a stable size distribution, we find that size distributions repeat in cycles. This phenomenon is observed in similar models only under special assumptions on the functional form of the size-dependent growth rate factor. Our main results are illustrated with examples, and we also provide an introductory study of the bacterial growth in a chemostat within the framework of our model.

Approximate sample sizes required to estimate length distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miranda, L.E.

2007-01-01

The sample sizes required to estimate fish length were determined by bootstrapping from reference length distributions. Depending on population characteristics and species-specific maximum lengths, 1-cm length-frequency histograms required 375-1,200 fish to estimate within 10% with 80% confidence, 2.5-cm histograms required 150-425 fish, proportional stock density required 75-140 fish, and mean length required 75-160 fish. In general, smaller species, smaller populations, populations with higher mortality, and simpler length statistics required fewer samples. Indices that require low sample sizes may be suitable for monitoring population status, and when large changes in length are evident, additional sampling effort may be allocated to more precisely define length status with more informative estimators. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

Validating activity indices from camera traps for commensal rodents and other wildlife in and around farm buildings.

PubMed

Lambert, Mark; Bellamy, Fiona; Budgey, Richard; Callaby, Rebecca; Coats, Julia; Talling, Janet

2018-01-01

Indices of rodent activity are used as indicators of population change during field evaluation of rodenticides. We investigated the potential for using camera traps to determine activity indices for commensal rodents living in and around farm buildings, and sought to compare these indices against previously calibrated survey methods. We recorded 41 263 images of 23 species, including Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus Berk.) and house mice (Mus musculus L.). We found a positive correlation between activity indices from camera traps and activity indices from a method (footprint tracking) previously shown to have a linear relationship with population size for Norway rats. Filtering the camera trap data to simulate a 30-s delay between camera trigger events removed 59.9% of data and did not adversely affect the correlation between activity indices from camera traps and footprint tracking. The relationship between activity indices from footprint tracking and Norway rat population size is known from a previous study; from this, we determined the relationship between activity indices from camera traps and population size for Norway rats living in and around farm buildings. Systematic use of camera traps was used to determine activity indices for Norway rats living in and around farm buildings; the activity indices were positively correlated with those derived from a method previously calibrated against known population size for this species in this context. © 2017 Crown copyright. Pest Management Science © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Crown copyright. Pest Management Science © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

A modified Wright-Fisher model that incorporates Ne: A variant of the standard model with increased biological realism and reduced computational complexity.

PubMed

Zhao, Lei; Gossmann, Toni I; Waxman, David

2016-03-21

The Wright-Fisher model is an important model in evolutionary biology and population genetics. It has been applied in numerous analyses of finite populations with discrete generations. It is recognised that real populations can behave, in some key aspects, as though their size that is not the census size, N, but rather a smaller size, namely the effective population size, Ne. However, in the Wright-Fisher model, there is no distinction between the effective and census population sizes. Equivalently, we can say that in this model, Ne coincides with N. The Wright-Fisher model therefore lacks an important aspect of biological realism. Here, we present a method that allows Ne to be directly incorporated into the Wright-Fisher model. The modified model involves matrices whose size is determined by Ne. Thus apart from increased biological realism, the modified model also has reduced computational complexity, particularly so when Ne⪡N. For complex problems, it may be hard or impossible to numerically analyse the most commonly-used approximation of the Wright-Fisher model that incorporates Ne, namely the diffusion approximation. An alternative approach is simulation. However, the simulations need to be sufficiently detailed that they yield an effective size that is different to the census size. Simulations may also be time consuming and have attendant statistical errors. The method presented in this work may then be the only alternative to simulations, when Ne differs from N. We illustrate the straightforward application of the method to some problems involving allele fixation and the determination of the equilibrium site frequency spectrum. We then apply the method to the problem of fixation when three alleles are segregating in a population. This latter problem is significantly more complex than a two allele problem and since the diffusion equation cannot be numerically solved, the only other way Ne can be incorporated into the analysis is by simulation. We have achieved good accuracy in all cases considered. In summary, the present work extends the realism and tractability of an important model of evolutionary biology and population genetics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using high-resolution satellite imagery to assess populations of animals in the Antarctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LaRue, Michelle Ann

The Southern Ocean is one of the most rapidly-changing ecosystems on the planet due to the effects of climate change and commercial fishing for ecologically-important krill and fish. It is imperative that populations of indicator species, such as penguins and seals, be monitored at regional- to global scales to decouple the effects of climate and anthropogenic changes for appropriate ecosystem-based management of the Southern Ocean. Remotely monitoring populations through high-resolution satellite imagery is currently the only feasible way to gain information about population trends of penguins and seals in Antarctica. In my first chapter, I review the literature where high-resolution satellite imagery has been used to assess populations of animals in polar regions. Building on this literature, my second chapter focuses on estimating changes in abundance in the Weddell seal population in Erebus Bay. I found a strong correlation between ground and satellite counts, and this finding provides an alternate method for assessing populations of Weddell seals in areas where less is known about population status. My third chapter explores how size of the guano stain of Adelie penguins can be used to predict population size. Using high-resolution imagery and ground counts, I built a model to estimate the breeding population of Adelie penguins using a supervised classification to estimate guano size. These results suggest that the size of guano stain is an accurate predictor of population size, and can be applied to estimate remote Adelie penguin colonies. In my fourth chapter, I use air photos, satellite imagery, climate and mark-resight data to determine that climate change has positively impacted the population of Adelie penguins at Beaufort Island through a habitat release that ultimately affected the dynamics within the southern Ross Sea metapopulation. Finally, for my fifth chapter I combined the literature with observations from aerial surveys and satellite imagery to determine that emperor penguins are not philopatric. These results have implications for interpreting long-term modeling studies and I suggest that future research should account for metapopulation dynamics within emperor penguin populations. Combined, my dissertation provides resources and new insights for effective management of the Southern Ocean ecosystem.

Twig-leaf size relationships in woody plants vary intraspecifically along a soil moisture gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xiao-Dong; Yan, En-Rong; Chang, Scott X.; Wang, Xi-Hua; Zhao, Yan-Tao; Shi, Qing-Ru

2014-10-01

Understanding scaling relationships between twig size and leaf size along environmental gradients is important for revealing strategies of plant biomass allocation with changing environmental constraints. However, it remains poorly understood how variations in the slope and y-intercept in the twig-leaf size relationship partition among individual, population and species levels across communities. Here, we determined the scaling relationships between twig cross-sectional area (twig size) and total leaf area per twig (leaf size) among individual, population and species levels along a soil moisture gradient in subtropical forests in eastern China. Twig and leaf tissues from 95 woody plant species were collected from three sites that form a soil moisture gradient: a wet site (W), a mesophytic site (M), and a dry site (D). The variance in scaling slope and y-intercept was partitioned among individual, population and species levels using a nested ANOVA. In addition, the change in the twig-leaf size relationship over the soil moisture gradient was determined for each of overlapping and turnover species. Twig size was positively related to leaf size across the three levels, with the variance partitioned at the individual level in scaling slope and y-intercept being 98 and 90%, respectively. Along the soil moisture gradient, the twig-leaf size relationship differed inter- and intraspecifically. At the species and population levels, there were homogeneous slopes but the y-intercept was W > M = D. In contrast, at the individual level, the regression slopes were heterogeneous among the three sites. More remarkably, the twig-leaf size relationships changed from negative allometry for overlapping species to isometry for turnover species. This study provides strong evidence for the twig-leaf size relationship to be intraspecific, particularly at the individual level. Our findings suggest that whether or not species have overlapping habitats is crucial for shaping the deployment pattern between twigs and leaves.

Demographic and genetic status of an isolated population of bog turtles (Glyptemys muhlenbergii): Implications for managing small populations of long-lived animals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pittman, Shannon E.; King, T.L.; Faurby, S.; Dorcas, M.E.

2011-01-01

In this study, we sought to determine the population stability and genetic diversity of one isolated population of the federally-threatened bog turtle (Glyptemys muhlenbergii) in North Carolina. Using capture-recapture data, we estimated adult survival and population growth rate from 1992 to 2007. We found that the population decreased from an estimated 36 adult turtles in 1994 to approximately 11 adult turtles in 2007. We found a constant adult survival of 0. 893 (SE = 0. 018, 95% confidence interval, 0. 853-0. 924) between 1992 and 2007. Using 18 microsatellite markers, we compared the genetic status of this population with five other bog turtle populations. The target population displayed allelic richness (4. 8 ?? 0. 5) and observed heterozygosity (0. 619 ?? 0. 064) within the range of the other bog turtle populations. Coalescent analysis of population growth rate, effective population size, and timing of population structuring event also indicated the genetics of the target population were comparable to the other populations studied. Estimates of effective population size were a proportion of the census size in all populations except the target population, in which the effective population size was larger than the census size (30 turtles vs. 11 turtles). We attribute the high genetic diversity in the target population to the presence of multiple generations of old turtles. This study illustrates that the demographic status of populations of long-lived species may not be reflected genetically if a decline occurred recently. Consequently, the genetic integrity of populations of long-lived animals experiencing rapid demographic bottlenecks may be preserved through conservation efforts effective in addressing demographic problems. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Labor Force

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Occupational Outlook Quarterly, 2012

2012-01-01

The labor force is the number of people ages 16 or older who are either working or looking for work. It does not include active-duty military personnel or the institutionalized population, such as prison inmates. Determining the size of the labor force is a way of determining how big the economy can get. The size of the labor force depends on two…

Effects of high density on spacing behaviour and reproduction in Akodon azarae: A fencing experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ávila, Belén; Bonatto, Florencia; Priotto, José; Steinmann, Andrea R.

2016-01-01

We studied the short term spacing behavioural responses of Pampean grassland mouse (Akodon azarae) with regard to population density in four 0.25 ha enclosures (two control and two experimental) in the 2011 breeding season. Based on the hypothesis that A. azarae breeding females exhibit spacing behaviour, and breeding males show a fusion spatial response, we tested the following predictions: (1) home range size and intrasexual overlap degree of females are independent of population density values; (2) at high population density, home range size of males decreases and the intrasexual home range overlap degree increases. To determine if female reproductive success decreases at high population density, we analyzed pregnancy rate, size and weight of litters, and period until fecundation in both low and high enclosure population density. We found that both males and females varied their home range size in relation to population density. Although male home ranges were always bigger than those of females in populations with high density, home range sizes of both sexes decreased. Females kept exclusive home ranges independent of density values meanwhile males decreased home range overlap in high breeding density populations. Although females produced litters of similar size in both treatments, weight of litter, pregnant rate and period until fecundation varied in relation to population density. Our results did not support the hypothesis that at high density females of A. azarae exhibit spacing behaviour neither that males exhibit a fusion spatial response.

Population dynamics and the ecological stability of obligate pollination mutualisms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2001-01-01

Mutualistic interactions almost always produce both costs and benefits for each of the interacting species. It is the difference between gross benefits and costs that determines the net benefit and the per-capita effect on each of the interacting populations. For example, the net benefit of obligate pollinators, such as yucca and senita moths, to plants is determined by the difference between the number of ovules fertilized from moth pollination and the number of ovules eaten by the pollinator's larvae. It is clear that if pollinator populations are large, then, because many eggs are laid, costs to plants are large, whereas, if pollinator populations are small, gross benefits are low due to lack of pollination. Even though the size and dynamics of the pollinator population are likely to be crucial, their importance has been neglected in the investigation of mechanisms, such as selective fruit abortion, that can limit costs and increase net benefits. Here, we suggest that both the population size and dynamics of pollinators are important in determining the net benefits to plants, and that fruit abortion can significantly affect these. We develop a model of mutualism between populations of plants and their pollinating seed-predators to explore the ecological consequences of fruit abortion on pollinator population dynamics and the net effect on plants. We demonstrate that the benefit to a plant population is unimodal as a function of pollinator abundance, relative to the abundance of flowers. Both selective abortion of fruit with eggs and random abortion of fruit, without reference to whether they have eggs or not, can limit pollinator population size. This can increase the net benefits to the plant population by limiting the number of eggs laid, if the pollination rate remains high. However, fruit abortion can possibly destabilize the pollinator population, with negative consequences for the plant population.

Birth-weight charts and immigrant populations: A critical review.

PubMed

Urquia, Marcelo L; Sørbye, Ingvil K; Wanigaratne, Susitha

2016-04-01

There is an increasing body of literature focusing on differences in newborn size between different population subgroups defined by racial, ethnic, and immigration status. The interpretation of these differences as pathological or as merely reflecting normal variability is not straightforward and may have consequences for the provision of obstetric and neonatal care to minority populations. In this review, we critically assess some methodological issues affecting the assessment of newborn size and their potential implications for minority populations. In particular, we discuss the pros and cons of different types of newborn birth-weight (BW) charts (i.e., single local population-based references, minority-specific references, and a single international standard) to determine abnormal newborn size, with emphasis on immigrant populations. We conclude that size alone is not enough to inform clinical decisions and that all newborn size charts should be used as screening tools, not as diagnostic tools. Parental minority status may be regarded as a marker and used to further inquire about individual risk factors, particularly among immigrants who may not have a complete medical history in the new country. Finally, we outline areas for further research and recommendations for clinical practice. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic health and population monitoring of two small black bear (Ursus americanus) populations in Alabama, with a regional perspective of genetic diversity and exchange

PubMed Central

Waits, Lisette P.; Adams, Jennifer R.; Seals, Christopher L.; Steury, Todd D.

2017-01-01

One of the major concerns in conservation today is the loss of genetic diversity which is a frequent consequence of population isolation and small population sizes. Fragmentation of populations and persecution of carnivores has posed a substantial threat to the persistence of free ranging carnivores in North America since the arrival of European settlers. Black bears have seen significant reductions in range size from their historic extent, which is most pronounced in the southeastern United States and even more starkly in Alabama where until recently bears were reduced to a single geographically isolated population in the Mobile River Basin. Recently a second population has naturally re-established itself in northeastern Alabama. We sought to determine size, genetic diversity and genetic connectivity for these two populations in relation to other regional populations. Both populations of black bears in Alabama had small population sizes and had moderate to low genetic diversity, but showed different levels of connectivity to surrounding populations of bears. The Mobile River Basin population had a small population size at only 86 individuals (76–124, 95% C.I.), the lowest genetic diversity of compared populations (richness = 2.33, Ho and He = 0.33), and showed near complete genetic isolation from surrounding populations across multiple tests. The newly recolonizing population in northeastern Alabama had a small but growing population doubling in 3 years (34 individuals 26–43, 95% C.I.), relatively moderate genetic diversity compared to surrounding populations (richness = 3.32, Ho = 0.53, He = 0.65), and showed a high level of genetic connectivity with surrounding populations. PMID:29117263

Fitness variation in response to artificial selection for reduced cell area, cell number and wing area in natural populations of Drosophila melanogaster.

PubMed

Trotta, Vincenzo; Calboli, Federico C F; Ziosi, Marcello; Cavicchi, Sandro

2007-08-16

Genetically based body size differences are naturally occurring in populations of Drosophila melanogaster, with bigger flies in the cold. Despite the cosmopolitan nature of body size clines in more than one Drosophila species, the actual selective mechanisms controlling the genetic basis of body size variation are not fully understood. In particular, it is not clear what the selective value of cell size and cell area variation exactly is. In the present work we determined variation in viability, developmental time and larval competitive ability in response to crowding at two temperatures after artificial selection for reduced cell area, cell number and wing area in four different natural populations of D. melanogaster. No correlated effect of selection on viability or developmental time was observed among all selected populations. An increase in competitive ability in one thermal environment (18 degrees C) under high larval crowding was observed as a correlated response to artificial selection for cell size. Viability and developmental time are not affected by selection for the cellular component of body size, suggesting that these traits only depend on the contingent genetic makeup of a population. The higher larval competitive ability shown by populations selected for reduced cell area seems to confirm the hypothesis that cell area mediated changes have a relationship with fitness, and might be the preferential way to change body size under specific circumstances.

Dispersal, niche breadth and population extinction: colonization ratios predict range size in North American dragonflies.

PubMed

McCauley, Shannon J; Davis, Christopher J; Werner, Earl E; Robeson, Michael S

2014-07-01

Species' range sizes are shaped by fundamental differences in species' ecological and evolutionary characteristics, and understanding the mechanisms determining range size can shed light on the factors responsible for generating and structuring biological diversity. Moreover, because geographic range size is associated with a species' risk of extinction and their ability to respond to global changes in climate and land use, understanding these mechanisms has important conservation implications. Despite the hypotheses that dispersal behaviour is a strong determinant of species range areas, few data are available to directly compare the relationship between dispersal behaviour and range size. Here, we overcome this limitation by combining data from a multispecies dispersal experiment with additional species-level trait data that are commonly hypothesized to affect range size (e.g. niche breadth, local abundance and body size.). This enables us to examine the relationship between these species-level traits and range size across North America for fifteen dragonfly species. Ten models based on a priori predictions about the relationship between species traits and range size were evaluated and two models were identified as good predictors of species range size. These models indicated that only two species' level traits, dispersal behaviour and niche breadth were strongly related to range size. The evidence from these two models indicated that dragonfly species that disperse more often and further had larger North American ranges. Extinction and colonization dynamics are expected to be a key linkage between dispersal behaviour and range size in dragonflies. To evaluate how extinction and colonization dynamics among dragonflies were related to range size we used an independent data set of extinction and colonization rates for eleven dragonfly species and assessed the relationship between these populations rates and North American range areas for these species. We found a negative relationship between North American range size and species' extinction-to-colonization ratios. Our results indicate that metapopulation dynamics act to shape the extent of species' continental distributions. These population dynamics are likely to interact with dispersal behaviour, particularly at species range margins, to determine range limits and ultimately species range sizes. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Effects of YORP-induced rotational fission on the small size end of the Main Belt asteroid size distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Alessandro; Jacobson, S.; Marzari, F.; Scheeres, D.; Davis, D. R.

2013-10-01

From the results of a comprehensive asteroid population evolution model, we conclude that the YORP-induced rotational fission hypothesis has strong repercussions for the small size end of the Main Belt asteroid size frequency distribution. These results are consistent with observed asteroid population statistics. The foundation of this model is the asteroid rotation model of Marzari et al. (2011), which incorporates both the YORP effect and collisional evolution. This work adds to that model the rotational fission hypothesis (i.e. when the rotation rate exceeds a critical value, erosion and binary formation occur). The YORP effect timescale for large asteroids with diameters D > ~6 km is longer than the collision timescale in the Main Belt, thus the frequency of large asteroids is determined by a collisional equilibrium (e.g. Bottke 2005), but for small asteroids with diameters D < ~6 km, the asteroid population evolution model confirms that YORP-induced rotational fission destroys small asteroids more frequently than collisions. Therefore, the frequency of these small asteroids is determined by an equilibrium between the creation of new asteroids out of the impact debris of larger asteroids and the destruction of these asteroids by YORP-induced rotational fission. By introducing a new source of destruction that varies strongly with size, YORP-induced rotational fission alters the slope of the size frequency distribution. Using the outputs of the asteroid population evolution model and a 1-D collision evolution model, we can generate this new size frequency distribution and it matches the change in slope observed by the SKADS survey (Gladman 2009). This agreement is achieved with both an accretional power-law or a truncated “Asteroids were Born Big” size frequency distribution (Weidenschilling 2010, Morbidelli 2009).

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-08-06

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an 'extinction window' of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the 'extinction window', although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Five decades on: Use of historical weaning size data reveals that a decrease in maternal foraging success underpins the long-term decline in population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina).

PubMed

Clausius, Ella; McMahon, Clive R; Hindell, Mark A

2017-01-01

The population of Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) at Macquarie Island has declined since the 1960s, and is thought to be due to changing oceanic conditions leading to reductions in the foraging success of Macquarie Island breeding females. To test this hypothesis, we used a 55-year-old data set on weaning size of southern elephant seals to quantify a decrease in weaning size from a period of population stability in 1950s to its present state of on-going decline. Being capital breeders, the size of elephant seal pups at weaning is a direct consequence of maternal foraging success in the preceding year. During the 1940-1950s, the mean of female pups at weaning was similar between the Heard and Macquarie Island populations, while the snout-tail-length length of male weaners from Heard Island were longer than their conspecifics at Macquarie Island. Additionally, the snout-tail-length of pups at weaning decreased by 3cm between the 1950s and 1990s in the Macquarie Island population, concurrent with the observed population decline. Given the importance of weaning size in determining first-year survival and recruitment rates, the decline in the size at weaning suggests that the decline in the Macquarie Island population has, to some extent, been driven by reduced maternal foraging success, consequent declines in the size of pups at weaning, leading to reduced first-year survival rates and recruitment of breeding females into the population 3 to 4 years later.

The Statistics and Mathematics of High Dimension Low Sample Size Asymptotics.

PubMed

Shen, Dan; Shen, Haipeng; Zhu, Hongtu; Marron, J S

2016-10-01

The aim of this paper is to establish several deep theoretical properties of principal component analysis for multiple-component spike covariance models. Our new results reveal an asymptotic conical structure in critical sample eigendirections under the spike models with distinguishable (or indistinguishable) eigenvalues, when the sample size and/or the number of variables (or dimension) tend to infinity. The consistency of the sample eigenvectors relative to their population counterparts is determined by the ratio between the dimension and the product of the sample size with the spike size. When this ratio converges to a nonzero constant, the sample eigenvector converges to a cone, with a certain angle to its corresponding population eigenvector. In the High Dimension, Low Sample Size case, the angle between the sample eigenvector and its population counterpart converges to a limiting distribution. Several generalizations of the multi-spike covariance models are also explored, and additional theoretical results are presented.

Individualism in plant populations: using stochastic differential equations to model individual neighbourhood-dependent plant growth.

PubMed

Lv, Qiming; Schneider, Manuel K; Pitchford, Jonathan W

2008-08-01

We study individual plant growth and size hierarchy formation in an experimental population of Arabidopsis thaliana, within an integrated analysis that explicitly accounts for size-dependent growth, size- and space-dependent competition, and environmental stochasticity. It is shown that a Gompertz-type stochastic differential equation (SDE) model, involving asymmetric competition kernels and a stochastic term which decreases with the logarithm of plant weight, efficiently describes individual plant growth, competition, and variability in the studied population. The model is evaluated within a Bayesian framework and compared to its deterministic counterpart, and to several simplified stochastic models, using distributional validation. We show that stochasticity is an important determinant of size hierarchy and that SDE models outperform the deterministic model if and only if structural components of competition (asymmetry; size- and space-dependence) are accounted for. Implications of these results are discussed in the context of plant ecology and in more general modelling situations.

Estimating total population size for adult female sea turtles: Accounting for non-nesters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Richardson, J.I.; Rees, Alan F.

2008-01-01

Assessment of population size and changes therein is important to sea turtle management and population or life history research. Investigators might be interested in testing hypotheses about the effect of current population size or density (number of animals per unit resource) on future population processes. Decision makers might want to determine a level of allowable take of individual turtles of specified life stage. Nevertheless, monitoring most stages of sea turtle life histories is difficult, because obtaining access to individuals is difficult. Although in-water assessments are becoming more common, nesting females and their hatchlings remain the most accessible life stages. In some cases adult females of a given nesting population are sufficiently philopatric that the population itself can be well defined. If a well designed tagging study is conducted on this population, survival, breeding probability, and the size of the nesting population in a given year can be estimated. However, with published statistical methodology the size of the entire breeding population (including those females skipping nesting in that year) cannot be estimated without assuming that each adult female in this population has the same probability of nesting in a given year (even those that had just nested in the previous year). We present a method for estimating the total size of a breeding population (including nesters those skipping nesting) from a tagging study limited to the nesting population, allowing for the probability of nesting in a given year to depend on an individual's nesting status in the previous year (i.e., a Markov process). From this we further develop estimators for rate of growth from year to year in both nesting population and total breeding population, and the proportion of the breeding population that is breeding in a given year. We also discuss assumptions and apply these methods to a breeding population of hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) from the Caribbean. We anticipate that this method could also be useful for in-water studies of well defined populations.

Ultrasound assessment of spleen size in collegiate athletes.

PubMed

Hosey, R G; Mattacola, C G; Kriss, V; Armsey, T; Quarles, J D; Jagger, J

2006-03-01

To determine normal spleen dimensions in a healthy collegiate athletic population. 631 Division I collegiate athletes from one university participated in the study. During pre-participation examinations, demographic data collected were collected from volunteer athletes including sex, race, measurement of height and weight, and age. Subjects also completed a medical history form to determine any history of mononucleosis infection, platelet disorder, sickle cell disease (or trait), thalassaemia, or recent viral symptoms. Subjects then underwent a limited abdominal ultrasound examination, where splenic length and width were recorded. Mean (SD) splenic length was 10.65 (1.55) cm and width, 5.16 (1.21) cm. Men had larger spleens than women (p<0.001). White subjects had larger spleens than African-American subjects (p<0.001). A previous history of infectious mononucleosis or the presence of recent cold symptoms had no significant affect on spleen size. In more than 7% of athletes, baseline spleen size met current criteria for splenomegaly. There is a wide range of normal spleen size among collegiate athletes. Average spleen size was larger in men and white athletes than in women and black athletes. A single ultrasound examination for determination of splenomegaly is of limited value in this population.

Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

PubMed

Fiske, Ian J; Bruna, Emilio M; Bolker, Benjamin M

2008-08-28

Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda) calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5), and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high elasticities.

The fall and rise of the Icelandic Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus): a 50-year demographic study on a non-cyclic Arctic fox population.

PubMed

Unnsteinsdottir, E R; Hersteinsson, P; Pálsson, S; Angerbjörn, A

2016-08-01

In territorial species, observed density dependence is often manifest in lowered reproductive output at high population density where individuals have fewer resources or are forced to inhabit low-quality territories. The Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) in Iceland is territorial throughout the year and feeds mostly on birds, since lemmings are absent from the country. Thus, the population does not exhibit short-term population cycles that are evident in most of the species' geographical range. The population has, however, gone through a major long-term fluctuation in population size. Because of the stability in hunting effort and reliable hunting records since 1958, the total number of adult foxes killed annually can be used as an index of population size (N t ). An index of carrying capacity (K) from population growth data for five separate time blocks during 1958-2007 revealed considerable variation in K and allowed a novel definition of population density in terms of K, or N t /K. Correlation analysis suggested that the reproductive rate was largely determined by the proportion of territorial foxes in the population. Variation in litter size and cub mortality was, on the other hand, related to climatic variation. Thus, Arctic foxes in Iceland engage in typical contest competition but can adapt their territory sizes in response to both temporal and spatial variation in carrying capacity, resulting in surprisingly little variation in litter size.

Dynamic Properties of the Alkaline Vesicle Population at Hippocampal Synapses

PubMed Central

Röther, Mareike; Brauner, Jan M.; Ebert, Katrin; Welzel, Oliver; Jung, Jasmin; Bauereiss, Anna; Kornhuber, Johannes; Groemer, Teja W.

2014-01-01

In compensatory endocytosis, scission of vesicles from the plasma membrane to the cytoplasm is a prerequisite for intravesicular reacidification and accumulation of neurotransmitter molecules. Here, we provide time-resolved measurements of the dynamics of the alkaline vesicle population which appears upon endocytic retrieval. Using fast perfusion pH-cycling in live-cell microscopy, synapto-pHluorin expressing rat hippocampal neurons were electrically stimulated. We found that the relative size of the alkaline vesicle population depended significantly on the electrical stimulus size: With increasing number of action potentials the relative size of the alkaline vesicle population expanded. In contrast to that, increasing the stimulus frequency reduced the relative size of the population of alkaline vesicles. Measurement of the time constant for reacification and calculation of the time constant for endocytosis revealed that both time constants were variable with regard to the stimulus condition. Furthermore, we show that the dynamics of the alkaline vesicle population can be predicted by a simple mathematical model. In conclusion, here a novel methodical approach to analyze dynamic properties of alkaline vesicles is presented and validated as a convenient method for the detection of intracellular events. Using this method we show that the population of alkaline vesicles is highly dynamic and depends both on stimulus strength and frequency. Our results implicate that determination of the alkaline vesicle population size may provide new insights into the kinetics of endocytic retrieval. PMID:25079223

A new mechanistic approach for the further development of a population with established size bimodality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heerman, Lisa; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Borcherding, Jost

2017-01-01

Usually, the origin of a within-cohort bimodal size distribution is assumed to be caused by initial size differences or by one discrete period of accelerated growth for one part of the population. The aim of this study was to determine if more continuous pathways exist allowing shifts from the small to the large fraction within a bimodal age-cohort. Therefore, a Eurasian perch population, which had already developed a bimodal size-distribution and had differential resource use of the two size-cohorts, was examined. Results revealed that formation of a bimodal size-distribution can be a continuous process. Perch from the small size-cohort were able to grow into the large size-cohort by feeding on macroinvertebrates not used by their conspecifics. The diet shifts were accompanied by morphological shape changes. Intra-specific competition seemed to trigger the development towards an increasing number of large individuals. A stage-structured matrix model confirmed these assumptions. The fact that bimodality can be a continuous process is important to consider for the understanding of ecological processes and links within ecosystems.

A new mechanistic approach for the further development of a population with established size bimodality

PubMed Central

DeAngelis, Donald L.; Borcherding, Jost

2017-01-01

Usually, the origin of a within-cohort bimodal size distribution is assumed to be caused by initial size differences or by one discrete period of accelerated growth for one part of the population. The aim of this study was to determine if more continuous pathways exist allowing shifts from the small to the large fraction within a bimodal age-cohort. Therefore, a Eurasian perch population, which had already developed a bimodal size-distribution and had differential resource use of the two size-cohorts, was examined. Results revealed that formation of a bimodal size-distribution can be a continuous process. Perch from the small size-cohort were able to grow into the large size-cohort by feeding on macroinvertebrates not used by their conspecifics. The diet shifts were accompanied by morphological shape changes. Intra-specific competition seemed to trigger the development towards an increasing number of large individuals. A stage-structured matrix model confirmed these assumptions. The fact that bimodality can be a continuous process is important to consider for the understanding of ecological processes and links within ecosystems. PMID:28650963

The accuracy of matrix population model projections for coniferous trees in the Sierra Nevada, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Mantgem, P.J.; Stephenson, N.L.

2005-01-01

1 We assess the use of simple, size-based matrix population models for projecting population trends for six coniferous tree species in the Sierra Nevada, California. We used demographic data from 16 673 trees in 15 permanent plots to create 17 separate time-invariant, density-independent population projection models, and determined differences between trends projected from initial surveys with a 5-year interval and observed data during two subsequent 5-year time steps. 2 We detected departures from the assumptions of the matrix modelling approach in terms of strong growth autocorrelations. We also found evidence of observation errors for measurements of tree growth and, to a more limited degree, recruitment. Loglinear analysis provided evidence of significant temporal variation in demographic rates for only two of the 17 populations. 3 Total population sizes were strongly predicted by model projections, although population dynamics were dominated by carryover from the previous 5-year time step (i.e. there were few cases of recruitment or death). Fractional changes to overall population sizes were less well predicted. Compared with a null model and a simple demographic model lacking size structure, matrix model projections were better able to predict total population sizes, although the differences were not statistically significant. Matrix model projections were also able to predict short-term rates of survival, growth and recruitment. Mortality frequencies were not well predicted. 4 Our results suggest that simple size-structured models can accurately project future short-term changes for some tree populations. However, not all populations were well predicted and these simple models would probably become more inaccurate over longer projection intervals. The predictive ability of these models would also be limited by disturbance or other events that destabilize demographic rates. ?? 2005 British Ecological Society.

Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size

PubMed Central

DeLong, John P.; Burger, Oskar

2015-01-01

The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system. PMID:26091499

Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size.

PubMed

DeLong, John P; Burger, Oskar

2015-01-01

The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system.

Noninvasive genetics provides insights into the population size and genetic diversity of an Amur tiger population in China.

PubMed

Wang, Dan; Hu, Yibo; Ma, Tianxiao; Nie, Yonggang; Xie, Yan; Wei, Fuwen

2016-01-01

Understanding population size and genetic diversity is critical for effective conservation of endangered species. The Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) is the largest felid and a flagship species for wildlife conservation. Due to habitat loss and human activities, available habitat and population size are continuously shrinking. However, little is known about the true population size and genetic diversity of wild tiger populations in China. In this study, we collected 55 fecal samples and 1 hair sample to investigate the population size and genetic diversity of wild Amur tigers in Hunchun National Nature Reserve, Jilin Province, China. From the samples, we determined that 23 fecal samples and 1 hair sample were from 7 Amur tigers: 2 males, 4 females and 1 individual of unknown sex. Interestingly, 2 fecal samples that were presumed to be from tigers were from Amur leopards, highlighting the significant advantages of noninvasive genetics over traditional methods in studying rare and elusive animals. Analyses from this sample suggested that the genetic diversity of wild Amur tigers is much lower than that of Bengal tigers, consistent with previous findings. Furthermore, the genetic diversity of this Hunchun population in China was lower than that of the adjoining subpopulation in southwest Primorye Russia, likely due to sampling bias. Considering the small population size and relatively low genetic diversity, it is urgent to protect this endangered local subpopulation in China. © 2015 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Caution regarding the choice of standard deviations to guide sample size calculations in clinical trials.

PubMed

Chen, Henian; Zhang, Nanhua; Lu, Xiaosun; Chen, Sophie

2013-08-01

The method used to determine choice of standard deviation (SD) is inadequately reported in clinical trials. Underestimations of the population SD may result in underpowered clinical trials. This study demonstrates how using the wrong method to determine population SD can lead to inaccurate sample sizes and underpowered studies, and offers recommendations to maximize the likelihood of achieving adequate statistical power. We review the practice of reporting sample size and its effect on the power of trials published in major journals. Simulated clinical trials were used to compare the effects of different methods of determining SD on power and sample size calculations. Prior to 1996, sample size calculations were reported in just 1%-42% of clinical trials. This proportion increased from 38% to 54% after the initial Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) was published in 1996, and from 64% to 95% after the revised CONSORT was published in 2001. Nevertheless, underpowered clinical trials are still common. Our simulated data showed that all minimal and 25th-percentile SDs fell below 44 (the population SD), regardless of sample size (from 5 to 50). For sample sizes 5 and 50, the minimum sample SDs underestimated the population SD by 90.7% and 29.3%, respectively. If only one sample was available, there was less than 50% chance that the actual power equaled or exceeded the planned power of 80% for detecting a median effect size (Cohen's d = 0.5) when using the sample SD to calculate the sample size. The proportions of studies with actual power of at least 80% were about 95%, 90%, 85%, and 80% when we used the larger SD, 80% upper confidence limit (UCL) of SD, 70% UCL of SD, and 60% UCL of SD to calculate the sample size, respectively. When more than one sample was available, the weighted average SD resulted in about 50% of trials being underpowered; the proportion of trials with power of 80% increased from 90% to 100% when the 75th percentile and the maximum SD from 10 samples were used. Greater sample size is needed to achieve a higher proportion of studies having actual power of 80%. This study only addressed sample size calculation for continuous outcome variables. We recommend using the 60% UCL of SD, maximum SD, 80th-percentile SD, and 75th-percentile SD to calculate sample size when 1 or 2 samples, 3 samples, 4-5 samples, and more than 5 samples of data are available, respectively. Using the sample SD or average SD to calculate sample size should be avoided.

Size relationships between the parasitic copepod, Lernanthropus cynoscicola , and its fish host, Cynoscion guatucupa.

PubMed

Timi, J T; Lanfranchi, A L

2006-02-01

The effects of the size of Cynoscion guatucupa on the size and demographic parameters of their parasitic copepod Lernanthropus cynoscicola were evaluated. Prevalence of copepods increased with host size up to fish of intermediate length, then it decreased, probably because changes in size of gill filaments affect their attachment capability, enhancing the possibility of being detached by respiratory currents. Body length of copepods was significantly correlated with host length, indicating that only parasites of an 'adequate' size can be securely attached to a fish of a given size. The absence of relationship between the coefficient of variability in copepod length and both host length and number of conspecifics, together with the host-size dependence of both male and juvenile female sizes, prevent to interpret this relationship as a phenomenon of developmental plasticity. Therefore, the observed peak of prevalence could reflect the distribution of size frequencies in the population of copepods, with more individuals near the average length. Concluding, the 'optimum' host size for L. cynoscicola could merely be the adequate size for most individuals in the population, depending, therefore, on a populational attribute of parasites. However, its location along the host size range could be determined by a balance between fecundity and number of available hosts, which increases and decreases, respectively, with both host and parasite size.

The Driving Forces of Cultural Complexity : Neanderthals, Modern Humans, and the Question of Population Size.

PubMed

Fogarty, Laurel; Wakano, Joe Yuichiro; Feldman, Marcus W; Aoki, Kenichi

2017-03-01

The forces driving cultural accumulation in human populations, both modern and ancient, are hotly debated. Did genetic, demographic, or cognitive features of behaviorally modern humans (as opposed to, say, early modern humans or Neanderthals) allow culture to accumulate to its current, unprecedented levels of complexity? Theoretical explanations for patterns of accumulation often invoke demographic factors such as population size or density, whereas statistical analyses of variation in cultural complexity often point to the importance of environmental factors such as food stability, in determining cultural complexity. Here we use both an analytical model and an agent-based simulation model to show that a full understanding of the emergence of behavioral modernity, and the cultural evolution that has followed, depends on understanding and untangling the complex relationships among culture, genetically determined cognitive ability, and demographic history. For example, we show that a small but growing population could have a different number of cultural traits from a shrinking population with the same absolute number of individuals in some circumstances.

Aboriginal population prospects.

PubMed

Gray, A; Tesfaghiorghis, H

1993-11-01

The authors examine data from the 1986 and 1991 Australian censuses to assess discrepancies between the census data and past projections of the size and structure of the Aboriginal population. They also "comment on ways in which determinants of Aboriginal population change are diverging from the parameters used for previous projections. We pay particular attention to mortality prospects.... We note the evidence for under-enumeration of the Aboriginal population in particular age groups in the 1991 Census as in previous censuses, and estimate the size of adjustments necessary to correct for some, but not all, of these deficiencies. The analysis shows that Aboriginal fertility increased in the second half of the 1980s." excerpt

Effects of recruitment, growth, and exploitation on walleye population size structure in northern Wisconsin lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Michael J.; Nate, Nancy A.

2014-01-01

We evaluated the dynamics of walleye Sander vitreus population size structure, as indexed by the proportional size distribution (PSD) of quality-length fish, in Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003 and in 204 other lakes in northern Wisconsin during 1990–2011. We estimated PSD from angler-caught walleyes in Escanaba Lake and from spring electrofishing in 204 other lakes, and then related PSD to annual estimates of recruitment to age-3, length at age 3, and annual angling exploitation rate. In Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003, annual estimates of PSD were highly dynamic, growth (positively) explained 35% of PSD variation, recruitment explained only 3% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 7% of PSD variation. In 204 other northern Wisconsin lakes during 1990–2011, PSD varied widely among lakes, recruitment (negatively) explained 29% of PSD variation, growth (positively) explained 21% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 4% of PSD variation. We conclude that population size structure was most strongly driven by recruitment and growth, rather than exploitation, in northern Wisconsin walleye populations. Studies of other species over wide spatial and temporal ranges of recruitment, growth, and mortality are needed to determine which dynamic rate most strongly influences population size structure of other species. Our findings indicate a need to be cautious about assuming exploitation is a strong driver of walleye population size structure.

Factors Influencing the Usage of an Electronic Book Collection: Size of the E-Book Collection, the Student Population, and the Faculty Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lamothe, Alain R.

2013-01-01

This paper presents the results of a quantitative and systematic investigation exploring online e-book usage at the J.N. Desmarais Library of Laurentian University over a 9-year period. The size of an e-book collection was determined to show evidence of an extremely strong relationship with the level of usage e-books experienced. Of all factors…

Effect of dispersal at range edges on the structure of species ranges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bahn, V.; O'Connor, R.J.; Krohn, W.B.

2006-01-01

Range edges are of particular interest to ecology because they hold key insights into the limits of the realized niche and associated population dynamics. A recent feature of Oikos summarized the state of the art on range edge ecology. While the typical question is what causes range edges, another important question is how range edges influence the distribution of abundances across a species geographic range when dispersal is present. We used a single species population dynamics model on a coupled-lattice to determine the effects of dispersal on peripheral populations as compared to populations at the core of the range. In the absence of resource gradients, the reduced neighborhood and thus lower connectivity or higher isolation among populations at the range edge alone led to significantly lower population sizes in the periphery of the range than in the core. Lower population sizes mean higher extinction risks and lower adaptability at the range edge, which could inhibit or slow range expansions, and thus effectively stabilize range edges. The strength of this effect depended on the potential population growth rate and the maximum dispersal distance. Lower potential population growth rates led to a stronger effect of dispersal resulting in a higher difference in population sizes between the two areas. The differential effect of dispersal on population sizes at the core and periphery of the range in the absence of resource gradients implies that traditional, habitat-based distribution models could result in misleading conclusions about the habitat quality in the periphery. Lower population sizes at the periphery are also relevant to conservation, because habitat removal not only eliminates populations but also creates new edges. Populations bordering these new edges may experience declines, due to their increased isolation. ?? OIKOS.

Thermal models applicable for visual and infrared studies of orbital debris

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lebofsky, Larry A.; Vilas, Faith

1990-01-01

Over the past decade, thermal models have been developed for the determination of asteroid diameters and albedos. As a first step to understanding the size/frequency distribution of the debris population in earth orbit, these thermal models have been modified to determine the sizes of orbiting debris. When possible, the model results have been compared to spherical satellites of known diameter.

[Effective size of the early-run sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka population of Lake Azabach'e, Kamchatka Peninsula evaluation of the effect of interaction between subpopulations within a subdivided population].

PubMed

Efremov, V V

2005-05-01

The effect of subdivision on the effective size (Ne) of the early-run sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka population of Lake Azabach'e (Kamchatka Peninsula) has been studied. The mode of this effect is determined by the relative productivity of the subpopulations and its magnitude, by the rate of individual migration among subpopulations and genetic differentiation. If the contributions of subpopulations (offspring numbers) are different, genetic differentiation can reduce the Ne of the subdivided population. At equal subpopulation contributions, genetic differentiation always increases the Ne of the subdivided population in comparison with a panmictic population. We have found that all sockeye salmon subpopulations of Azabach'e Lake produce equal offspring numbers contributing to the next generation. The genetic differentiation between sockeye salmon subpopulations is low, and the subdivision increases the Ne of the early-run race with reference to the sum of the effective sizes of the subpopulations by as little as 2%.

Inferring the Mode of Selection from the Transient Response to Demographic Perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balick, Daniel; Do, Ron; Reich, David; Sunyaev, Shamil

2014-03-01

Despite substantial recent progress in theoretical population genetics, most models work under the assumption of a constant population size. Deviations from fixed population sizes are ubiquitous in natural populations, many of which experience population bottlenecks and re-expansions. The non-equilibrium dynamics introduced by a large perturbation in population size are generally viewed as a confounding factor. In the present work, we take advantage of the transient response to a population bottleneck to infer features of the mode of selection and the distribution of selective effects. We develop an analytic framework and a corresponding statistical test that qualitatively differentiates between alleles under additive and those under recessive or more general epistatic selection. This statistic can be used to bound the joint distribution of selective effects and dominance effects in any diploid sexual organism. We apply this technique to human population genetic data, and severely restrict the space of allowed selective coefficients in humans. Additionally, one can test a set of functionally or medically relevant alleles for the primary mode of selection, or determine the local regional variation in dominance coefficients along the genome.

Body size, performance and fitness in galapagos marine iguanas.

PubMed

Wikelski, Martin; Romero, L Michael

2003-07-01

Complex organismal traits such as body size are influenced by innumerable selective pressures, making the prediction of evolutionary trajectories for those traits difficult. A potentially powerful way to predict fitness in natural systems is to study the composite response of individuals in terms of performance measures, such as foraging or reproductive performance. Once key performance measures are identified in this top-down approach, we can determine the underlying physiological mechanisms and gain predictive power over long-term evolutionary processes. Here we use marine iguanas as a model system where body size differs by more than one order of magnitude between island populations. We identified foraging efficiency as the main performance measure that constrains body size. Mechanistically, foraging performance is determined by food pasture height and the thermal environment, influencing intake and digestion. Stress hormones may be a flexible way of influencing an individual's response to low-food situations that may be caused by high population density, famines, or anthropogenic disturbances like oil spills. Reproductive performance, on the other hand, increases with body size and is mediated by higher survival of larger hatchlings from larger females and increased mating success of larger males. Reproductive performance of males may be adjusted via plastic hormonal feedback mechanisms that allow individuals to assess their social rank annually within the current population size structure. When integrated, these data suggest that reproductive performance favors increased body size (influenced by reproductive hormones), with an overall limit imposed by foraging performance (influenced by stress hormones). Based on our mechanistic understanding of individual performances we predicted an evolutionary increase in maximum body size caused by global warming trends. We support this prediction using specimens collected during 1905. We also show in a common-garden experiment that body size may have a genetic component in iguanids. This 'performance paradigm' allows predictions about adaptive evolution in natural populations.

Critical Mutation Rate Has an Exponential Dependence on Population Size in Haploid and Diploid Populations

PubMed Central

Aston, Elizabeth; Channon, Alastair; Day, Charles; Knight, Christopher G.

2013-01-01

Understanding the effect of population size on the key parameters of evolution is particularly important for populations nearing extinction. There are evolutionary pressures to evolve sequences that are both fit and robust. At high mutation rates, individuals with greater mutational robustness can outcompete those with higher fitness. This is survival-of-the-flattest, and has been observed in digital organisms, theoretically, in simulated RNA evolution, and in RNA viruses. We introduce an algorithmic method capable of determining the relationship between population size, the critical mutation rate at which individuals with greater robustness to mutation are favoured over individuals with greater fitness, and the error threshold. Verification for this method is provided against analytical models for the error threshold. We show that the critical mutation rate for increasing haploid population sizes can be approximated by an exponential function, with much lower mutation rates tolerated by small populations. This is in contrast to previous studies which identified that critical mutation rate was independent of population size. The algorithm is extended to diploid populations in a system modelled on the biological process of meiosis. The results confirm that the relationship remains exponential, but show that both the critical mutation rate and error threshold are lower for diploids, rather than higher as might have been expected. Analyzing the transition from critical mutation rate to error threshold provides an improved definition of critical mutation rate. Natural populations with their numbers in decline can be expected to lose genetic material in line with the exponential model, accelerating and potentially irreversibly advancing their decline, and this could potentially affect extinction, recovery and population management strategy. The effect of population size is particularly strong in small populations with 100 individuals or less; the exponential model has significant potential in aiding population management to prevent local (and global) extinction events. PMID:24386200

Determinants of male floating behaviour and floater reproduction in a threatened population of the hihi (Notiomystis cincta)

PubMed Central

Brekke, Patricia; Ewen, John G; Clucas, Gemma; Santure, Anna W

2015-01-01

Floating males are usually thought of as nonbreeders. However, some floating individuals are able to reproduce through extra-pair copulations. Floater reproductive success can impact breeders’ sex ratio, reproductive variance, multiple paternity and inbreeding, particularly in small populations. Changes in reproductive variance alter the rate of genetic drift and loss of genetic diversity. Therefore, genetic management of threatened species requires an understanding of floater reproduction and determinants of floating behaviour to effectively conserve species. Here, we used a pedigreed, free-living population of the endangered New Zealand hihi (Notiomystis cincta) to assess variance in male reproductive success and test the genetic (inbreeding and heritability) and conditional (age and size) factors that influence floater behaviour and reproduction. Floater reproduction is common in this species. However, floater individuals have lower reproductive success and variance in reproductive success than territorial males (total and extra-pair fledglings), so their relative impact on the population's reproductive performance is low. Whether an individual becomes a floater, and if so then how successful they are, is determined mainly by individual age (young and old) and to lesser extents male size (small) and inbreeding level (inbred). Floating males have a small, but important role in population reproduction and persistence of threatened populations. PMID:26366197

Mammal population regulation, keystone processes and ecosystem dynamics.

PubMed Central

Sinclair, A R E

2003-01-01

The theory of regulation in animal populations is fundamental to understanding the dynamics of populations, the causes of mortality and how natural selection shapes the life history of species. In mammals, the great range in body size allows us to see how allometric relationships affect the mode of regulation. Resource limitation is the fundamental cause of regulation. Top-down limitation through predators is determined by four factors: (i). body size; (ii). the diversity of predators and prey in the system; (iii). whether prey are resident or migratory; and (iv). the presence of alternative prey for predators. Body size in mammals has two important consequences. First, mammals, particularly large species, can act as keystones that determine the diversity of an ecosystem. I show how keystone processes can, in principle, be measured using the example of the wildebeest in the Serengeti ecosystem. Second, mammals act as ecological landscapers by altering vegetation succession. Mammals alter physical structure, ecological function and species diversity in most terrestrial biomes. In general, there is a close interaction between allometry, population regulation, life history and ecosystem dynamics. These relationships are relevant to applied aspects of conservation and pest management. PMID:14561329

Optimizing the availability of a buffered industrial process

DOEpatents

Martz, Jr., Harry F.; Hamada, Michael S.; Koehler, Arthur J.; Berg, Eric C.

2004-08-24

A computer-implemented process determines optimum configuration parameters for a buffered industrial process. A population size is initialized by randomly selecting a first set of design and operation values associated with subsystems and buffers of the buffered industrial process to form a set of operating parameters for each member of the population. An availability discrete event simulation (ADES) is performed on each member of the population to determine the product-based availability of each member. A new population is formed having members with a second set of design and operation values related to the first set of design and operation values through a genetic algorithm and the product-based availability determined by the ADES. Subsequent population members are then determined by iterating the genetic algorithm with product-based availability determined by ADES to form improved design and operation values from which the configuration parameters are selected for the buffered industrial process.

Estimation of effectiveness of three methods of feral cat population control by use of a simulation model.

PubMed

McCarthy, Robert J; Levine, Stephen H; Reed, J Michael

2013-08-15

To predict effectiveness of 3 interventional methods of population control for feral cat colonies. Population model. Estimates of vital data for feral cats. Data were gathered from the literature regarding the demography and mating behavior of feral cats. An individual-based stochastic simulation model was developed to evaluate the effectiveness of trap-neuter-release (TNR), lethal control, and trap-vasectomy-hysterectomy-release (TVHR) in decreasing the size of feral cat populations. TVHR outperformed both TNR and lethal control at all annual capture probabilities between 10% and 90%. Unless > 57% of cats were captured and neutered annually by TNR or removed by lethal control, there was minimal effect on population size. In contrast, with an annual capture rate of ≥ 35%, TVHR caused population size to decrease. An annual capture rate of 57% eliminated the modeled population in 4,000 days by use of TVHR, whereas > 82% was required for both TNR and lethal control. When the effect of fraction of adult cats neutered on kitten and young juvenile survival rate was included in the analysis, TNR performed progressively worse and could be counterproductive, such that population size increased, compared with no intervention at all. TVHR should be preferred over TNR for management of feral cats if decrease in population size is the goal. This model allowed for many factors related to the trapping program and cats to be varied and should be useful for determining the financial and person-effort commitments required to have a desired effect on a given feral cat population.

Determining individual variation in growth and its implication for life-history and population processes using the empirical Bayes method.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone; Mangel, Marc; Crivelli, Alain J; Munch, Stephan; Skaug, Hans J

2014-09-01

The differences in demographic and life-history processes between organisms living in the same population have important consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Modern statistical and computational methods allow the investigation of individual and shared (among homogeneous groups) determinants of the observed variation in growth. We use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate individual and shared variation in somatic growth using a von Bertalanffy growth model with random effects. To illustrate the power and generality of the method, we consider two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Slovenian streams, where individually tagged fish have been sampled for more than 15 years. We use year-of-birth cohort, population density during the first year of life, and individual random effects as potential predictors of the von Bertalanffy growth function's parameters k (rate of growth) and L∞ (asymptotic size). Our results showed that size ranks were largely maintained throughout marble trout lifetime in both populations. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the best models showed different growth patterns for year-of-birth cohorts as well as the existence of substantial individual variation in growth trajectories after accounting for the cohort effect. For both populations, models including density during the first year of life showed that growth tended to decrease with increasing population density early in life. Model validation showed that predictions of individual growth trajectories using the random-effects model were more accurate than predictions based on mean size-at-age of fish.

Naturalization of plant populations: the role of cultivation and population size and density.

PubMed

Minton, Mark S; Mack, Richard N

2010-10-01

Field experimentation is required to assess the effects of environmental stochasticity on small immigrant plant populations-a widely understood but largely unexplored aspect of predicting any species' likelihood of naturalization and potential invasion. Cultivation can mitigate this stochasticity, although the outcome for a population under cultivation nevertheless varies enormously from extinction to persistence. Using factorial experiments, we investigated the effects of population size, density, and cultivation (irrigation) on the fate of founder populations for four alien species with different life history characteristics (Echinochloa frumentacea, Fagopyrum esculentum, Helianthus annuus, and Trifolium incarnatum) in eastern Washington, USA. The fate of founder populations was highly variable within and among the 3 years of experimentation and illustrates the often precarious environment encountered by plant immigrants. Larger founder populations produced more seeds (P < 0.001); the role of founder population size, however, differed among years. Irrigation resulted in higher percent survival (P < 0.001) and correspondingly larger net reproductive rate (R(0); P < 0.001). But the minimum level of irrigation for establishment, R(0) > 1, differed among years and species. Sowing density did not affect the likelihood of establishment for any species. Our results underscore the importance of environmental stochasticity in determining the fate of founder populations and the potential of cultivation and large population size in countering the long odds against naturalization. Any implementation of often proposed post-immigration field trials to assess the risk of an alien species becoming naturalized, a requisite step toward invasion, will need to assess different sizes of founder populations and the extent and character of cultivation (intentional or unintentional) that the immigrants might receive.

Epidemic Process over the Commute Network in a Metropolitan Area

PubMed Central

Yashima, Kenta; Sasaki, Akira

2014-01-01

An understanding of epidemiological dynamics is important for prevention and control of epidemic outbreaks. However, previous studies tend to focus only on specific areas, indicating that application to another area or intervention strategy requires a similar time-consuming simulation. Here, we study the epidemic dynamics of the disease-spread over a commute network, using the Tokyo metropolitan area as an example, in an attempt to elucidate the general properties of epidemic spread over a commute network that could be used for a prediction in any metropolitan area. The model is formulated on the basis of a metapopulation network in which local populations are interconnected by actual commuter flows in the Tokyo metropolitan area and the spread of infection is simulated by an individual-based model. We find that the probability of a global epidemic as well as the final epidemic sizes in both global and local populations, the timing of the epidemic peak, and the time at which the epidemic reaches a local population are mainly determined by the joint distribution of the local population sizes connected by the commuter flows, but are insensitive to geographical or topological structure of the network. Moreover, there is a strong relation between the population size and the time that the epidemic reaches this local population and we are able to determine the reason for this relation as well as its dependence on the commute network structure and epidemic parameters. This study shows that the model based on the connection between the population size classes is sufficient to predict both global and local epidemic dynamics in metropolitan area. Moreover, the clear relation of the time taken by the epidemic to reach each local population can be used as a novel measure for intervention; this enables efficient intervention strategies in each local population prior to the actual arrival. PMID:24905831

Size and DNA distributions of electrophoretically separated cultured human kidney cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kunze, M. E.; Plank, L. D.; Todd, P. W.

1985-01-01

Electrophoretic purification of purifying cultured cells according to function presumes that the size of cycle phase of a cell is not an overriding determinant of its electrophoretic velocity in an electrophoretic separator. The size distributions and DNA distributions of fractions of cells purified by density gradient electrophoresis were determined. No systematic dependence of electrophoretic migration upward in a density gradient column upon either size or DNA content were found. It was found that human leukemia cell populations, which are more uniform function and found in all phases of the cell cycle during exponential growth, separated on a vertical sensity gradient electrophoresis column according to their size, which is shown to be strictly cell cycle dependent.

Critical patch-size for two-sex populations.

PubMed

Andreguetto Maciel, Gabriel; Mendes Coutinho, Renato; André Kraenkel, Roberto

2018-06-01

As environments become increasingly degraded, mainly due to human activities, species are often subject to isolated habitats surrounded by unfavorable regions. Since the pioneering work by Skellam [25] mathematical models have provided useful insights into the population persistence in such cases. Most of these models, however, neglect the sex structure of populations and the differences between males and females. In this work we investigate, through a reaction-diffusion system, the dynamics of a sex-structured population in a single semipermeable patch. The critical patch size for persistence is determined from implicit relationships between model parameters. The effects of the various growth and movement parameters are also investigated. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Precipitation, density, and population dynamics of desert bighorn sheep on San Andres National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bender, L.C.; Weisenberger, M.E.

2005-01-01

Understanding the determinants of population size and performance for desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis mexicana) is critical to develop effective recovery and management strategies. In arid environments, plant communities and consequently herbivore populations are strongly dependent upon precipitation, which is highly variable seasonally and annually. We conducted a retrospective exploratory analysis of desert bighorn sheep population dynamics on San Andres National Wildlife Refuge (SANWR), New Mexico, 1941-1976, by modeling sheep population size as a function of previous population sizes and precipitation. Population size and trend of desert bighorn were best and well described (R 2=0.89) by a model that included only total annual precipitation as a covariate. Models incorporating density-dependence, delayed density-dependence, and combinations of density and precipitation were less informative than the model containing precipitation alone (??AlCc=8.5-22.5). Lamb:female ratios were positively related to precipitation (current year: F1,34=7.09, P=0.012; previous year: F1,33=3.37, P=0.075) but were unrelated to population size (current year. F1,34=0.04, P=0.843; previous year: F1,33 =0.14, P=0.715). Instantaneous population rate of increase (r) was related to population size (F1,33=5.55; P=0.025). Precipitation limited populations of desert bighorn sheep on SANWR primarily in a density-independent manner by affecting production or survival of lambs, likely through influences on forage quantity and quality. Habitat evaluations and recovery plans for desert bighorn sheep need to consider fundamental influences on desert bighorn populations such as precipitation and food, rather than focus solely on proximate issues such as security cover, predation, and disease. Moreover, the concept of carrying capacity for desert bighorn sheep may need re-evaluation in respect to highly variable (CV =35.6%) localized precipitation patterns. On SANWR carrying capacity for desert bighorn sheep was zero when total annual precipitation was <28.2 cm.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hanthorn, H.E.; Jaech, J.L.

Results are given of a study to determine the optimum testing scheme consisting of drawing a group of optimum size from the population being tested, and retesting it, if required, in subgroups of optimum size. An exact computation of optimum grouping and subgrouping was made. Results are also given to indicate how much loss inefficiency occurs when physical limitations restrict the size of the original group. (J.R.D.)

Spatially implicit approaches to understand the manipulation of mating success for insect invasion management

Treesearch

Takehiko Yamanaka; Andrew M. Liebhold

2009-01-01

Recent work indicates that Allee effects (the positive relationship between population size and per capita growth rate) are critical in determining the successful establishment of invading species. Allee effects may create population thresholds, and failure to establish is likely if invading populations fall below these thresholds. There are many mechanisms that may...

Chapter 33: Offshore Population Estimates of Marbled Murrelets in California

Treesearch

C. John Ralph; Sherri L. Miller

1995-01-01

We devised a method of estimating population size of Marbled Murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus) found in California’s offshore waters. The method involves determining the distribution of birds from the shore outward to 6,000 m offshore. Applying this distribution to data from boat surveys, we derived population estimates and estimates of sampling...

Stability of nuclear DNA content among divergent and isolated populations of Fraser fir

Treesearch

L.D. Auckland; J.S. Johnston; H.J. Price; F.E. Bridgwater

2001-01-01

Fraser fir (Abies fraseri (Pursh) Poir.) is an endemic species consisting of six major disjunct populations in the Appalachian Mountains, U.S.A. Nuclear DNA content was measured with laser flow cytometry to determine if genome size differences could be detected among the disjunct populations of Fraser fir and its close relatives, balsam fir

Accounting for missing data in the estimation of contemporary genetic effective population size (N(e) ).

PubMed

Peel, D; Waples, R S; Macbeth, G M; Do, C; Ovenden, J R

2013-03-01

Theoretical models are often applied to population genetic data sets without fully considering the effect of missing data. Researchers can deal with missing data by removing individuals that have failed to yield genotypes and/or by removing loci that have failed to yield allelic determinations, but despite their best efforts, most data sets still contain some missing data. As a consequence, realized sample size differs among loci, and this poses a problem for unbiased methods that must explicitly account for random sampling error. One commonly used solution for the calculation of contemporary effective population size (N(e) ) is to calculate the effective sample size as an unweighted mean or harmonic mean across loci. This is not ideal because it fails to account for the fact that loci with different numbers of alleles have different information content. Here we consider this problem for genetic estimators of contemporary effective population size (N(e) ). To evaluate bias and precision of several statistical approaches for dealing with missing data, we simulated populations with known N(e) and various degrees of missing data. Across all scenarios, one method of correcting for missing data (fixed-inverse variance-weighted harmonic mean) consistently performed the best for both single-sample and two-sample (temporal) methods of estimating N(e) and outperformed some methods currently in widespread use. The approach adopted here may be a starting point to adjust other population genetics methods that include per-locus sample size components. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Population and prehistory II: Space-limited human populations in constant environments

PubMed Central

Puleston, Cedric O.; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

2010-01-01

We present a population model to examine the forces that determined the quality and quantity of human life in early agricultural societies where cultivable area is limited. The model is driven by the non-linear and interdependent relationships between the age distribution of a population, its behavior and technology, and the nature of its environment. The common currency in the model is the production of food, on which age-specific rates of birth and death depend. There is a single nontrivial equilibrium population at which productivity balances caloric needs. One of the most powerful controls on equilibrium hunger level is fertility control. Gains against hunger are accompanied by decreases in population size. Increasing worker productivity does increase equilibrium population size but does not improve welfare at equilibrium. As a case study we apply the model to the population of a Polynesian valley before European contact. PMID:18598711

Population and prehistory II: space-limited human populations in constant environments.

PubMed

Puleston, Cedric O; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

2008-09-01

We present a population model to examine the forces that determined the quality and quantity of human life in early agricultural societies where cultivable area is limited. The model is driven by the non-linear and interdependent relationships between the age distribution of a population, its behavior and technology, and the nature of its environment. The common currency in the model is the production of food, on which age-specific rates of birth and death depend. There is a single non-trivial equilibrium population at which productivity balances caloric needs. One of the most powerful controls on equilibrium hunger level is fertility control. Gains against hunger are accompanied by decreases in population size. Increasing worker productivity does increase equilibrium population size but does not improve welfare at equilibrium. As a case study we apply the model to the population of a Polynesian valley before European contact.

Household demographic determinants of Ebola epidemic risk.

PubMed

Adams, Ben

2016-03-07

A salient characteristic of Ebola, and some other infectious diseases such as Tuberculosis, is intense transmission among small groups of cohabitants and relatively limited indiscriminate transmission in the wider population. Here we consider a mathematical model for an Ebola epidemic in a population structured into households of equal size. We show that household size, a fundamental demographic unit, is a critical factor that determines the vulnerability of a community to epidemics, and the effort required to control them. Our analysis is based on the household reproduction number, but we also consider the basic reproduction number, intrinsic growth rate and final epidemic size. We show that, when other epidemiological parameters are kept the same, all of these quantifications of epidemic growth and size are increased by larger households and more intense within-household transmission. We go on to model epidemic control by case detection and isolation followed by household quarantine. We show that, if household quarantine is ineffective, the critical probability with which cases must be detected to halt an epidemic increases significantly with each increment in household size and may be a very challenging target for communities composed of large households. Effective quarantine may, however, mitigate the detrimental impact of large household sizes. We conclude that communities composed of large households are fundamentally more vulnerable to epidemics of infectious diseases primarily transmitted by close contact, and any assessment of control strategies for these epidemics should take into account the demographic structure of the population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Phenotypic and Transcriptional Analysis of Divergently Selected Maize Populations Reveals the Role of Developmental Timing in Seed Size Determination1[W][OPEN

PubMed Central

Sekhon, Rajandeep S.; Hirsch, Candice N.; Childs, Kevin L.; Breitzman, Matthew W.; Kell, Paul; Duvick, Susan; Spalding, Edgar P.; Buell, C. Robin; de Leon, Natalia; Kaeppler, Shawn M.

2014-01-01

Seed size is a component of grain yield and an important trait in crop domestication. To understand the mechanisms governing seed size in maize (Zea mays), we examined transcriptional and developmental changes during seed development in populations divergently selected for large and small seed size from Krug, a yellow dent maize cultivar. After 30 cycles of selection, seeds of the large seed population (KLS30) have a 4.7-fold greater weight and a 2.6-fold larger size compared with the small seed population (KSS30). Patterns of seed weight accumulation from the time of pollination through 30 d of grain filling showed an earlier onset, slower rate, and earlier termination of grain filling in KSS30 relative to KLS30. This was further supported by transcriptome patterns in seeds from the populations and derived inbreds. Although the onset of key genes was earlier in small seeds, similar maximum transcription levels were observed in large seeds at later stages, suggesting that functionally weaker alleles, rather than transcript abundance, may be the basis of the slow rate of seed filling in KSS30. Gene coexpression networks identified several known genes controlling cellularization and proliferation as well as novel genes that will be useful candidates for biotechnological approaches aimed at altering seed size in maize and other cereals. PMID:24710068

Real-Time Quantitative PCR Measurement of Ileal Lactobacillus salivarius Populations from Broiler Chickens To Determine the Influence of Farming Practices▿ †

PubMed Central

Harrow, Sally A.; Ravindran, Velmurugu; Butler, Ruth C.; Marshall, John W.; Tannock, Gerald W.

2007-01-01

A real-time quantitative PCR assay targeting a 16S-23S intergenic spacer region sequence was devised to measure the sizes of populations of Lactobacillus salivarius present in ileal digesta collected from broiler chickens. This species has been associated with deconjugation of bile salts in the small bowel and reduced broiler productivity. The assay was tested as a means of monitoring the sizes of L. salivarius populations from broilers fed diets with different compositions, maintained at different stocking densities, or given the antimicrobial drugs bacitracin and monensin in the feed. Stocking densities did not influence the numbers of L. salivarius cells in the ileum. A diet containing meat and bone meal reduced the size of the L. salivarius population relative to that of chickens given the control diet, as did administration of bacitracin and monensin in the feed. These changes in the target bacterial population were associated with improved broiler weight gain. PMID:17890342

Effects of resource-dependent cannibalism on population size distribution and individual life history in a case-bearing caddisfly

PubMed Central

Okuda, Noboru

2018-01-01

Resource availability often determines the intensity of cannibalism, which has a considerable effect on population size distribution and individual life history. Larvae of the caddisfly Psilotreta kisoensis build portable cases from sedimentary sands and often display cannibalism. For this species, the availability of preferable case material is a critical factor that affects larval fitness, and material is locally variable depending on the underlying geology. In this study, we investigated how sand quality as a case material determines cannibalism frequency among larvae and, in turn, how the differential cannibalism frequency affects the body-size distribution and voltinism. Rearing experiments within a cohort revealed that a bimodal size distribution developed regardless of material quality. However, as the preferable material became abundant, the proportion of larger to smaller individuals increased. Consecutive experiments suggested that smaller larvae were more frequently cannibalized by larger ones and excluded from the population when preferable smooth material was abundant. This frequent cannibalism resulted in a bimodal size distribution with a significantly higher proportion of larger compared to smaller individuals. The size-dependent cannibalism was significantly suppressed when the larvae were raised in an environment with a scarcity of the preferable case material. This is probably because larvae cannot enjoy the benefit of rapid growth by cannibalism due to the difficulties in enlarging their case. At low cannibalism the growth of smaller individuals was stunted, and this was probably due to risk of cannibalism by larger individuals. This growth reduction in small individuals led to a bimodal size-distribution but with a lower proportion of larger to smaller individuals compared to at high cannibalism. A field study in two streams showed a similar size distribution of larvae as was found in the rearing experiment. The bimodal ratio has consequences for life history, since a size-bimodal population causes a cohort splitting: only larvae that were fully grown at 1 year had a univoltine life cycle, whereas larvae with a stunted growth continued their larval life for another year (semivoltine). This study suggests that availability of preferable case building material is an important factor that affects cannibalism, which in turn affects larval population size structure and cohort splitting. PMID:29466375

Effects of resource-dependent cannibalism on population size distribution and individual life history in a case-bearing caddisfly.

PubMed

Okano, Jun-Ichi; Okuda, Noboru

2018-01-01

Resource availability often determines the intensity of cannibalism, which has a considerable effect on population size distribution and individual life history. Larvae of the caddisfly Psilotreta kisoensis build portable cases from sedimentary sands and often display cannibalism. For this species, the availability of preferable case material is a critical factor that affects larval fitness, and material is locally variable depending on the underlying geology. In this study, we investigated how sand quality as a case material determines cannibalism frequency among larvae and, in turn, how the differential cannibalism frequency affects the body-size distribution and voltinism. Rearing experiments within a cohort revealed that a bimodal size distribution developed regardless of material quality. However, as the preferable material became abundant, the proportion of larger to smaller individuals increased. Consecutive experiments suggested that smaller larvae were more frequently cannibalized by larger ones and excluded from the population when preferable smooth material was abundant. This frequent cannibalism resulted in a bimodal size distribution with a significantly higher proportion of larger compared to smaller individuals. The size-dependent cannibalism was significantly suppressed when the larvae were raised in an environment with a scarcity of the preferable case material. This is probably because larvae cannot enjoy the benefit of rapid growth by cannibalism due to the difficulties in enlarging their case. At low cannibalism the growth of smaller individuals was stunted, and this was probably due to risk of cannibalism by larger individuals. This growth reduction in small individuals led to a bimodal size-distribution but with a lower proportion of larger to smaller individuals compared to at high cannibalism. A field study in two streams showed a similar size distribution of larvae as was found in the rearing experiment. The bimodal ratio has consequences for life history, since a size-bimodal population causes a cohort splitting: only larvae that were fully grown at 1 year had a univoltine life cycle, whereas larvae with a stunted growth continued their larval life for another year (semivoltine). This study suggests that availability of preferable case building material is an important factor that affects cannibalism, which in turn affects larval population size structure and cohort splitting.

Microbial diversity--insights from population genetics.

PubMed

Mes, Ted H M

2008-01-01

Although many environmental microbial populations are large and genetically diverse, both the level of diversity and the extent to which it is ecologically relevant remain enigmatic. Because the effective (or long-term) population size, N(e), is one of the parameters that determines population genetic diversity, tests and simulations that assume selectively neutral mutations may help to identify the processes that have shaped microbial diversity. Using ecologically important genes, tests of selective neutrality suggest that adaptive as well as non-adaptive types of selection act and that departure from neutrality may be widespread or restricted to small groups of genotypes. Population genetic simulations using population sizes between 10(3) and 10(7) suggest extremely high levels of microbial diversity in environments that sustain large populations. However, census and effective population sizes may differ considerably, and because we know nothing of the evolutionary history of environmental microbial populations, we also have no idea what N(e) of environmental populations is. On the one hand, this reflects our ignorance of the microbial world. On the other hand, the tests and simulations illustrate interactions between microbial diversity and microbial population genetics that should inform our thinking in microbial ecology. Because of the different views on microbial diversity across these disciplines, such interactions are crucial if we are to understand the role of genes in microbial communities.

Dispersal leads to spatial autocorrelation in species distributions: A simulation model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bahn, V.; Krohn, W.B.; O'Connor, R.J.

2008-01-01

Compared to population growth regulated by local conditions, dispersal has been underappreciated as a central process shaping the spatial distribution of populations. This paper asks: (a) which conditions increase the importance of dispersers relative to local recruits in determining population sizes? and (b) how does dispersal influence the spatial distribution patterns of abundances among connected populations? We approached these questions with a simulation model of populations on a coupled lattice with cells of continuously varying habitat quality expressed as carrying capacities. Each cell contained a population with the basic dynamics of density-regulated growth, and was connected to other populations by immigration and emigration. The degree to which dispersal influenced the distribution of population sizes depended most strongly on the absolute amount of dispersal, and then on the potential population growth rate. Dispersal decaying in intensity with distance left close neighbours more alike in population size than distant populations, leading to an increase in spatial autocorrelation. The spatial distribution of species with low potential growth rates is more dependent on dispersal than that of species with high growth rates; therefore, distribution modelling for species with low growth rates requires particular attention to autocorrelation, and conservation management of these species requires attention to factors curtailing dispersal, such as fragmentation and dispersal barriers. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vessel Sampling and Blood Flow Velocity Distribution With Vessel Diameter for Characterizing the Human Bulbar Conjunctival Microvasculature.

PubMed

Wang, Liang; Yuan, Jin; Jiang, Hong; Yan, Wentao; Cintrón-Colón, Hector R; Perez, Victor L; DeBuc, Delia C; Feuer, William J; Wang, Jianhua

2016-03-01

This study determined (1) how many vessels (i.e., the vessel sampling) are needed to reliably characterize the bulbar conjunctival microvasculature and (2) if characteristic information can be obtained from the distribution histogram of the blood flow velocity and vessel diameter. Functional slitlamp biomicroscope was used to image hundreds of venules per subject. The bulbar conjunctiva in five healthy human subjects was imaged on six different locations in the temporal bulbar conjunctiva. The histograms of the diameter and velocity were plotted to examine whether the distribution was normal. Standard errors were calculated from the standard deviation and vessel sample size. The ratio of the standard error of the mean over the population mean was used to determine the sample size cutoff. The velocity was plotted as a function of the vessel diameter to display the distribution of the diameter and velocity. The results showed that the sampling size was approximately 15 vessels, which generated a standard error equivalent to 15% of the population mean from the total vessel population. The distributions of the diameter and velocity were not only unimodal, but also somewhat positively skewed and not normal. The blood flow velocity was related to the vessel diameter (r=0.23, P<0.05). This was the first study to determine the sampling size of the vessels and the distribution histogram of the blood flow velocity and vessel diameter, which may lead to a better understanding of the human microvascular system of the bulbar conjunctiva.

Population Size and the Rate of Language Evolution: A Test Across Indo-European, Austronesian, and Bantu Languages

PubMed Central

Greenhill, Simon J.; Hua, Xia; Welsh, Caela F.; Schneemann, Hilde; Bromham, Lindell

2018-01-01

What role does speaker population size play in shaping rates of language evolution? There has been little consensus on the expected relationship between rates and patterns of language change and speaker population size, with some predicting faster rates of change in smaller populations, and others expecting greater change in larger populations. The growth of comparative databases has allowed population size effects to be investigated across a wide range of language groups, with mixed results. One recent study of a group of Polynesian languages revealed greater rates of word gain in larger populations and greater rates of word loss in smaller populations. However, that test was restricted to 20 closely related languages from small Oceanic islands. Here, we test if this pattern is a general feature of language evolution across a larger and more diverse sample of languages from both continental and island populations. We analyzed comparative language data for 153 pairs of closely-related sister languages from three of the world's largest language families: Austronesian, Indo-European, and Niger-Congo. We find some evidence that rates of word loss are significantly greater in smaller languages for the Indo-European comparisons, but we find no significant patterns in the other two language families. These results suggest either that the influence of population size on rates and patterns of language evolution is not universal, or that it is sufficiently weak that it may be overwhelmed by other influences in some cases. Further investigation, for a greater number of language comparisons and a wider range of language features, may determine which of these explanations holds true. PMID:29755387

Thermodynamics and Human Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cordry, Sean M.

2010-01-01

This paper discusses a Fermi-problem exercise through which I take students in several of my college courses. Students work in teams, determining the average daily Caloric needs per person. Then they use insolation values to determine the size of a collection area needed to absorb the previously determined daily energy requirements. Adjustments to…

Critical factors in the establishment of allopolyploids.

PubMed

Fowler, Norma L; Levin, Donald A

2016-07-01

The growth and spread of new polyploid populations have been explained in terms of fitness advantages over their diploid progenitors. However, a fitness advantage is not sufficient to insure the establishment of a polyploid; it must also overcome the obstacles of demographic stochasticity and minority disadvantage. Several studies have addressed the population dynamics of autopolyploids, but the present study is the first to consider allopolyploids, which are affected by more factors than autopolyploids. We constructed a population dynamic model of four types of plants (two parent species, hybrids, allopolyploids) that also included an explicit breeding system. The numbers of plants of each type were the most important factors determining whether the new allopolyploid would become established. More polyploid plants greatly increased the likelihood of polyploid persistence. More plants of the parent species and more hybrids resulted in more polyploids being produced. The model parameters with the most effect on polyploid establishment were potential population size (K), individual plant fecundity, and niche separation (α). The most important breeding system parameters were selfing rates, which mitigated minority disadvantage imposed by pollen limitation. The importance of population sizes, and the parameters that controlled them, in overcoming demographic stochasticity parallels the well-recognized role of propagule pressure in determining the success of invasive species. We modeled the establishment of a new allopolyploid; analogous considerations would affect the establishment of a new autopolyploid. The critical role of population sizes in polyploid establishment should be more widely recognized. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Contrasting effects of temperature and precipitation change on amphibian phenology, abundance and performance.

PubMed

Ficetola, Gentile Francesco; Maiorano, Luigi

2016-07-01

Climate change is determining a generalized phenological advancement, and amphibians are among the taxa showing the strongest phenological responsiveness to warming temperatures. Amphibians are strongly influenced by climate change, but we do not have a clear picture of how climate influences important parameters of amphibian populations, such as abundance, survival, breeding success and morphology. Furthermore, the relative impact of temperature and precipitation change remains underappreciated. We used Bayesian meta-analysis and meta-regression to quantify the impact of temperature and precipitation change on amphibian phenology, abundance, individual features and performance. We obtained effect sizes from studies performed in five continents. Temperature increase was the major driver of phenological advancement, while the impact of precipitation on phenology was weak. Conversely, population dynamics was mostly determined by precipitation: negative trends were associated with drying regimes. The impact of precipitation on abundance was particularly strong in tropical areas, while the importance of temperature was feeble. Both temperature and precipitation influenced parameters representing breeding performance, morphology, developmental rate and survival, but the response was highly heterogeneous among species. For instance, warming temperature increased body size in some species, and decreased size in others. Similarly, rainy periods increased survival of some species and reduced the survival of others. Our study showed contrasting impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on amphibian populations. Both climatic parameters strongly influenced amphibian performance, but temperature was the major determinant of the phenological changes, while precipitation had the major role on population dynamics, with alarming declines associated with drying trends.

Performance breakdown in optimal stimulus decoding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostal, Lubomir; Lansky, Petr; Pilarski, Stevan

2015-06-01

Objective. One of the primary goals of neuroscience is to understand how neurons encode and process information about their environment. The problem is often approached indirectly by examining the degree to which the neuronal response reflects the stimulus feature of interest. Approach. In this context, the methods of signal estimation and detection theory provide the theoretical limits on the decoding accuracy with which the stimulus can be identified. The Cramér-Rao lower bound on the decoding precision is widely used, since it can be evaluated easily once the mathematical model of the stimulus-response relationship is determined. However, little is known about the behavior of different decoding schemes with respect to the bound if the neuronal population size is limited. Main results. We show that under broad conditions the optimal decoding displays a threshold-like shift in performance in dependence on the population size. The onset of the threshold determines a critical range where a small increment in size, signal-to-noise ratio or observation time yields a dramatic gain in the decoding precision. Significance. We demonstrate the existence of such threshold regions in early auditory and olfactory information coding. We discuss the origin of the threshold effect and its impact on the design of effective coding approaches in terms of relevant population size.

Performance breakdown in optimal stimulus decoding.

PubMed

Lubomir Kostal; Lansky, Petr; Pilarski, Stevan

2015-06-01

One of the primary goals of neuroscience is to understand how neurons encode and process information about their environment. The problem is often approached indirectly by examining the degree to which the neuronal response reflects the stimulus feature of interest. In this context, the methods of signal estimation and detection theory provide the theoretical limits on the decoding accuracy with which the stimulus can be identified. The Cramér-Rao lower bound on the decoding precision is widely used, since it can be evaluated easily once the mathematical model of the stimulus-response relationship is determined. However, little is known about the behavior of different decoding schemes with respect to the bound if the neuronal population size is limited. We show that under broad conditions the optimal decoding displays a threshold-like shift in performance in dependence on the population size. The onset of the threshold determines a critical range where a small increment in size, signal-to-noise ratio or observation time yields a dramatic gain in the decoding precision. We demonstrate the existence of such threshold regions in early auditory and olfactory information coding. We discuss the origin of the threshold effect and its impact on the design of effective coding approaches in terms of relevant population size.

Approximate Sample Size Formulas for Testing Group Mean Differences when Variances Are Unequal in One-Way ANOVA

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guo, Jiin-Huarng; Luh, Wei-Ming

2008-01-01

This study proposes an approach for determining appropriate sample size for Welch's F test when unequal variances are expected. Given a certain maximum deviation in population means and using the quantile of F and t distributions, there is no need to specify a noncentrality parameter and it is easy to estimate the approximate sample size needed…

Impact of minimum catch size on the population viability of Strombus gigas (Mesogastropoda: Strombidae) in Quintana Roo, Mexico.

PubMed

Peel, Joanne R; Mandujano, María del Carmen

2014-12-01

The queen conch Strombus gigas represents one of the most important fishery resources of the Caribbean but heavy fishing pressure has led to the depletion of stocks throughout the region, causing the inclusion of this species into CITES Appendix II and IUCN's Red-List. In Mexico, the queen conch is managed through a minimum fishing size of 200 mm shell length and a fishing quota which usually represents 50% of the adult biomass. The objectives of this study were to determine the intrinsic population growth rate of the queen conch population of Xel-Ha, Quintana Roo, Mexico, and to assess the effects of a regulated fishing impact, simulating the extraction of 50% adult biomass on the population density. We used three different minimum size criteria to demonstrate the effects of minimum catch size on the population density and discuss biological implications. Demographic data was obtained through capture-mark-recapture sampling, collecting all animals encountered during three hours, by three divers, at four different sampling sites of the Xel-Ha inlet. The conch population was sampled each month between 2005 and 2006, and bimonthly between 2006 and 2011, tagging a total of 8,292 animals. Shell length and lip thickness were determined for each individual. The average shell length for conch with formed lip in Xel-Ha was 209.39 ± 14.18 mm and the median 210 mm. Half of the sampled conch with lip ranged between 200 mm and 219 mm shell length. Assuming that the presence of the lip is an indicator for sexual maturity, it can be concluded that many animals may form their lip at greater shell lengths than 200 mm and ought to be considered immature. Estimation of relative adult abundance and densities varied greatly depending on the criteria employed for adult classification. When using a minimum fishing size of 200 mm shell length, between 26.2% and up to 54.8% of the population qualified as adults, which represented a simulated fishing impact of almost one third of the population. When conch extraction was simulated using a classification criteria based on lip thickness, it had a much smaller impact on the population density. We concluded that the best management strategy for S. gigas is a minimum fishing size based on a lip thickness, since it has lower impact on the population density, and given that selective fishing pressure based on size may lead to the appearance of small adult individuals with reduced fecundity. Furthermore, based on the reproductive biology and the results of the simulated fishing, we suggest a minimum lip thickness of ≥ 15 mm, which ensures the protection of reproductive stages, reduces the risk of overfishing, leading to non-viable density reduction.

Population status of prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) in the San Pedro River Basin, Sonora

Treesearch

Efren Moreno-Arzate; Carlos A. Lopez Gonzalez; Gerardo Carreon Arroyo

2013-01-01

The black tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) is a species of conservation concern for Mexico, the United States and Canada. Populations in Mexico (including those in Sonora), which are considered endangered by the Mexican authority, require additional conservation efforts to maintain them on the long term. Our objective was to determine population size and...

Balancing selection and genetic drift create unusual patterns of MHCIIβ variation in Galápagos mockingbirds.

PubMed

Vlček, Jakub; Hoeck, Paquita E A; Keller, Lukas F; Wayhart, Jessica P; Dolinová, Iva; Štefka, Jan

2016-10-01

The extracellular subunit of the major histocompatibility complex MHCIIβ plays an important role in the recognition of pathogens and the initiation of the adaptive immune response of vertebrates. It is widely accepted that pathogen-mediated selection in combination with neutral micro-evolutionary forces (e.g. genetic drift) shape the diversity of MHCIIβ, but it has proved difficult to determine the relative effects of these forces. We evaluated the effect of genetic drift and balancing selection on MHCIIβ diversity in 12 small populations of Galápagos mockingbirds belonging to four different species, and one larger population of the Northern mockingbird from the continental USA. After genotyping MHCIIβ loci by high-throughput sequencing, we applied a correlational approach to explore the relationships between MHCIIβ diversity and population size by proxy of island size. As expected when drift predominates, we found a positive effect of population size on the number of MHCIIβ alleles present in a population. However, the number of MHCIIβ alleles per individual and number of supertypes were not correlated with population size. This discrepancy points to an interesting feature of MHCIIβ diversity dynamics: some levels of diversity might be shaped by genetic drift while others are independent and possibly maintained by balancing selection. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Determining Individual Variation in Growth and Its Implication for Life-History and Population Processes Using the Empirical Bayes Method

PubMed Central

Vincenzi, Simone; Mangel, Marc; Crivelli, Alain J.; Munch, Stephan; Skaug, Hans J.

2014-01-01

The differences in demographic and life-history processes between organisms living in the same population have important consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Modern statistical and computational methods allow the investigation of individual and shared (among homogeneous groups) determinants of the observed variation in growth. We use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate individual and shared variation in somatic growth using a von Bertalanffy growth model with random effects. To illustrate the power and generality of the method, we consider two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Slovenian streams, where individually tagged fish have been sampled for more than 15 years. We use year-of-birth cohort, population density during the first year of life, and individual random effects as potential predictors of the von Bertalanffy growth function's parameters k (rate of growth) and (asymptotic size). Our results showed that size ranks were largely maintained throughout marble trout lifetime in both populations. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the best models showed different growth patterns for year-of-birth cohorts as well as the existence of substantial individual variation in growth trajectories after accounting for the cohort effect. For both populations, models including density during the first year of life showed that growth tended to decrease with increasing population density early in life. Model validation showed that predictions of individual growth trajectories using the random-effects model were more accurate than predictions based on mean size-at-age of fish. PMID:25211603

[VARIABILITY AND DETERMINING FACTORS OF THE BODY SIZE STRUCTURE OF THE INFRAPOPULATION OF COSMOCERCA ORNATA (NEMATODA: COSMOCERCIDAE) IN MARSH FROGS].

PubMed

Kirillov, A A; Kirillova, N Yu

2015-01-01

Variability of the body size in females of the Cosmocerca ornata (Dujardin, 1845), a parasite of marsh frogs, is studied. The influence of both biotic (age, sex and a phenotype of the host, density of the parasite population) and abiotic (a season of the year, water temperature) factors on the formation of the body size structure in the C. ornata hemipopulation (infrapopulation) is demonstrated. The body size structure of the C. ornata hemipopulation is characterized by the low level of individual variability as within certain subpopulation groups of amphibians (sex, age and phenotype), so within the population of marsh frogs as a whole. The more distinct are the differences in biology and ecology of these host subpopulations, the more pronounced is the variability in the body size of C ornata.

The effects of body size and climate on post-weaning survival of elephant seals at Heard Island

USGS Publications Warehouse

McMahon, Clive R; New, Leslie; Fairley, E.J.; Hindell, M.A.; Burton, H.R.

2015-01-01

The population size of southern elephant seals in the southern Indian and Pacific Oceans decreased precipitously between the 1950s and 1990s. To investigate the reasons behind this, we studied the population of southern elephant seals at Heard Island between 1949 and 1954, using data collected by the early Australian National Antarctic Research Expeditions. Seals were marked and measured (lengths) as weaned pups, and resighted at Heard and Marion islands and in the Vestfold Hills, Antarctica in subsequent years. Bayesian state-space mark-recapture models were used to determine post-weaning survival. Yearling survival was consistently lower (ϕy: 0.28–0.40) than sub-adult survival (ϕs: 0.79–0.83). We found evidence for constant sub-adult survival and time-dependent resight probabilities. Weaning length was an important determinate of yearling survival, with the probability of survival increasing with individual length. There was some suggestion that the Southern Annular Mode influenced yearling survival but this evidence was not strong. Nonetheless, our results provide further support showing that size at independence affects yearling survival. Given the known sensitivity of southern elephant seal populations to survival early in life, it is possible that the decline in population size at Heard Island between the 1950s and 1990s like that at Macquarie Island was due to low yearling survival mediated through maternal ability to produce large pups and the dominant environmental conditions mothers experience during pregnancy.

Association Studies and Legume Synteny Reveal Haplotypes Determining Seed Size in Vigna unguiculata.

PubMed

Lucas, Mitchell R; Huynh, Bao-Lam; da Silva Vinholes, Patricia; Cisse, Ndiaga; Drabo, Issa; Ehlers, Jeffrey D; Roberts, Philip A; Close, Timothy J

2013-01-01

Highly specific seed market classes for cowpea and other grain legumes exist because grain is most commonly cooked and consumed whole. Size, shape, color, and texture are critical features of these market classes and breeders target development of cultivars for market acceptance. Resistance to biotic and abiotic stresses that are absent from elite breeding material are often introgressed through crosses to landraces or wild relatives. When crosses are made between parents with different grain quality characteristics, recovery of progeny with acceptable or enhanced grain quality is problematic. Thus genetic markers for grain quality traits can help in pyramiding genes needed for specific market classes. Allelic variation dictating the inheritance of seed size can be tagged and used to assist the selection of large seeded lines. In this work we applied 1,536-plex SNP genotyping and knowledge of legume synteny to characterize regions of the cowpea genome associated with seed size. These marker-trait associations will enable breeders to use marker-based selection approaches to increase the frequency of progeny with large seed. For 804 individuals derived from eight bi-parental populations, QTL analysis was used to identify markers linked to 10 trait determinants. In addition, the population structure of 171 samples from the USDA core collection was identified and incorporated into a genome-wide association study which supported more than half of the trait-associated regions important in the bi-parental populations. Seven of the total 10 QTLs were supported based on synteny to seed size associated regions identified in the related legume soybean. In addition to delivering markers linked to major trait determinants in the context of modern breeding, we provide an analysis of the diversity of the USDA core collection of cowpea to identify genepools, migrants, admixture, and duplicates.

Optimal control of Atlantic population Canada geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hauser, C.E.; Runge, M.C.; Cooch, E.G.; Johnson, F.A.; Harvey, W.F.

2007-01-01

Management of Canada geese (Branta canadensis) can be a balance between providing sustained harvest opportunity while not allowing populations to become overabundant and cause damage. In this paper, we focus on the Atlantic population of Canada geese and use stochastic dynamic programming to determine the optimal harvest strategy over a range of plausible models for population dynamics. There is evidence to suggest that the population exhibits significant age structure, and it is possible to reconstruct age structure from surveys. Consequently the harvest strategy is a function of the age composition, as well as the abundance, of the population. The objective is to maximize harvest while maintaining the number of breeding adults in the population between specified upper and lower limits. In addition, the total harvest capacity is limited and there is uncertainty about the strength of density-dependence. We find that under a density-independent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at the highest acceptable abundance. However if harvest capacity is limited, then the optimal long-term breeding population size is lower than the highest acceptable level, to reduce the risk of the population growing to an unacceptably large size. Under the proposed density-dependent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at an intermediate level between the bounds on acceptable population size; limits to harvest capacity have little effect on the optimal long-term population size. It is clear that the strength of density-dependence and constraints on harvest significantly affect the optimal harvest strategy for this population. Model discrimination might be achieved in the long term, while continuing to meet management goals, by adopting an adaptive management strategy.

A landscape approach for assessing the ecological feasibility of a black bear population recovery

EPA Science Inventory

There is great interest in recovering populations of large carnivores in locations where they previously were extirpated or severely reduced in size as a result of human activity. Determining the ecological feasibility (i.e., is adequate habitat available?) of a species is diffi...

Mathematical demography of spotted owls in the Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

B.R. Noon; C.M. Biles

1990-01-01

We examined the mathematical demography of northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) using simple deterministic population models. Our goals were to gain insights into the life history strategy, to determine demographic attributes most affecting changes in population size, and to provide guidelines for effective management of spotted owl...

Floral display size, conspecific density and florivory affect fruit set in natural populations of Phlox hirsuta, an endangered species

PubMed Central

Ruane, Lauren G.; Rotzin, Andrew T.; Congleton, Philip H.

2014-01-01

Background and Aims Natural variation in fruit and seed set may be explained by factors that affect the composition of pollen grains on stigmas. Self-incompatible species require compatible outcross pollen grains to produce seeds. The siring success of outcross pollen grains, however, can be hindered if self (or other incompatible) pollen grains co-occur on stigmas. This study identifies factors that determine fruit set in Phlox hirsuta, a self-sterile endangered species that is prone to self-pollination, and its associated fitness costs. Methods Multiple linear regressions were used to identify factors that explain variation in percentage fruit set within three of the five known populations of this endangered species. Florivorous beetle density, petal colour, floral display size, local conspecific density and pre-dispersal seed predation were quantified and their effects on the ability of flowers to produce fruits were assessed. Key Results In all three populations, percentage fruit set decreased as florivorous beetle density increased and as floral display size increased. The effect of floral display size on fruit set, however, often depended on the density of nearby conspecific plants. High local conspecific densities offset – even reversed – the negative effects of floral display size on percentage fruit set. Seed predation by mammals decreased fruit set in one population. Conclusions The results indicate that seed production in P. hirsuta can be maximized by selectively augmenting populations in areas containing isolated large plants, by reducing the population sizes of florivorous beetles and by excluding mammals that consume unripe fruits. PMID:24557879

Efficacy of a 2% climbazole shampoo for reducing Malassezia population sizes on the skin of naturally infected dogs.

PubMed

Cavana, P; Petit, J-Y; Perrot, S; Guechi, R; Marignac, G; Reynaud, K; Guillot, J

2015-12-01

Shampoo therapy is often recommended for the control of Malassezia overgrowth in dogs. The aim of this study was to evaluate the in vivo activity of a 2% climbazole shampoo against Malassezia pachydermatis yeasts in naturally infected dogs. Eleven research colony Beagles were used. The dogs were distributed randomly into two groups: group A (n=6) and group B (n=5). Group A dogs were washed with a 2% climbazole shampoo, while group B dogs were treated with a physiological shampoo base. The shampoos were applied once weekly for two weeks. The population size of Malassezia yeasts on skin was determined by fungal culture through modified Dixon's medium contact plates pressed on left concave pinna, axillae, groins, perianal area before and after shampoo application. Samples collected were compared by Wilcoxon rank sum test. Samples collected after 2% climbazole shampoo application showed a significant and rapid reduction of Malassezia population sizes. One hour after the first climbazole shampoo application, Malassezia reduction was already statistically significant and 15 days after the second climbazole shampoo, Malassezia population sizes were still significantly decreased. No significant reduction of Malassezia population sizes was observed in group B dogs. The application of a 2% climbazole shampoo significantly reduced Malassezia population sizes on the skin of naturally infected dogs. Application of 2% climbazole shampoo may be useful for the control of Malassezia overgrowth and it may be also proposed as prevention when recurrences are frequent. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Simulated population responses of common carp to commercial exploitation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weber, Michael J.; Hennen, Matthew J.; Brown, Michael L.

2011-12-01

Common carp Cyprinus carpio is a widespread invasive species that can become highly abundant and impose deleterious ecosystem effects. Thus, aquatic resource managers are interested in controlling common carp populations. Control of invasive common carp populations is difficult, due in part to the inherent uncertainty of how populations respond to exploitation. To understand how common carp populations respond to exploitation, we evaluated common carp population dynamics (recruitment, growth, and mortality) in three natural lakes in eastern South Dakota. Common carp exhibited similar population dynamics across these three systems that were characterized by consistent recruitment (ages 3 to 15 years present),more » fast growth (K = 0.37 to 0.59), and low mortality (A = 1 to 7%). We then modeled the effects of commercial exploitation on size structure, abundance, and egg production to determine its utility as a management tool to control populations. All three populations responded similarly to exploitation simulations with a 575-mm length restriction, representing commercial gear selectivity. Simulated common carp size structure modestly declined (9 to 37%) in all simulations. Abundance of common carp declined dramatically (28 to 56%) at low levels of exploitation (0 to 20%) but exploitation >40% had little additive effect and populations were only reduced by 49 to 79% despite high exploitation (>90%). Maximum lifetime egg production was reduced from 77 to 89% at a moderate level of exploitation (40%), indicating the potential for recruitment overfishing. Exploitation further reduced common carp size structure, abundance, and egg production when simulations were not size selective. Our results provide insights to how common carp populations may respond to exploitation. Although commercial exploitation may be able to partially control populations, an integrated removal approach that removes all sizes of common carp has a greater chance of controlling population abundance and reducing perturbations induced by this invasive species.« less

Impact of oral hygiene and socio-demographic factors on dental caries in a suburban population in Nigeria.

PubMed

Oyedele, T A; Fadeju, A D; Adeyemo, Y I; Nzomiwu, C L; Ladeji, A M

2018-05-14

This was to determine dental caries determinants in the study participants. This was a secondary data study extracted from primary data through a school-based study that recruited students from primary and secondary schools in a suburban population in Nigeria. The variables included age, gender, socio-economic status, oral hygiene status, type of parenting, birth rank, family size and presence of dental caries. The diagnosis of dental caries was based on the World Health Oral Health Survey recommendations while oral hygiene was determined using simplified-oral hygiene index (OHI-S). Data was analysed using STATA version 13, statistical significance was set at P < 0.05. The prevalence of dental caries for the study population was 12.2%, DMFT and dmft were 0.16 and 0.06 respectively. Children within age groups 11-13 and 14-16 years had reduced chances of having dental caries (P = 0.01; P = 0.01); children with fair oral hygiene and poor oral hygiene had increased odds of having dental caries (P ≤ 0.001; P ≤ 0.001), last child of the family also had increased odds of having dental caries while children from large family size had reduced odds of having dental caries. This study also showed that first permanent molars and second primary molars were mostly affected by dental caries but there was no significant difference between distribution of the maxillary or mandibular jaw or between right and left quadrants. Age, oral hygiene, birth rank and family size were the significant determinants of dental caries in the study population and the teeth mostly affected were first permanent molars and second primary molars.

Social Organization, Population, and Land Use*

PubMed Central

Axinn, William G.; Ghimire, Dirgha J.

2011-01-01

We present a new approach to the investigation of human influences on environmental change that explicitly adds consideration of social organization. This approach identifies social organization as an influence on the environment that is independent of population size, affluence, and technology. The framework we present also identifies population events, such as births, that are likely to influence environmental outcomes beyond the consequences of population size. The theoretical framework we construct explains that explicit attention to social organization is necessary for micro-level investigation of the population-environment relationship because social organization influences both. We use newly available longitudinal, multilevel, mixed-method measures of local land use changes, local population dynamics, and social organization from the Nepalese Himalayas to provide empirical tests of this new framework. These tests reveal that measures of change in social organization are strongly associated with measures of change in land use, and that the association is independent of common measures of population size, affluence, and technology. Also, local birth events shape local land use changes and key proximate determinants of land use change. Together the empirical results demonstrate key new scientific opportunities arising from the approach we present. PMID:21876607

Population size and winter distribution of eastern American oystercatchers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, S.C.; Schulte, Shiloh A.; Harrington, B.; Winn, Brad; Bart, J.; Howe, M.

2005-01-01

Conservation of the eastern subspecies of the American oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus palliatus) is a high priority in the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan, but previous population estimates were unreliable, information on distribution and habitat associations during winter was incomplete, and methods for long-term monitoring had not been developed prior to this survey. We completed the aerial survey proposed in the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan to determine population size, winter distribution, and habitat associations. We conducted coastal aerial surveys from New Jersey to Texas during November 2002 to February 2003. This area comprised the entire wintering range of the eastern American oystercatcher within the United States. Surveys covered all suitable habitat in the United States for the subspecies, partitioned into 3 survey strata: known roost sites, high-use habitat, and inter-coastal tidal habitat. We determined known roost sites from extensive consultation with biologists and local experts in each state. High-use habitat included sand islands, sand spits at inlets, shell rakes, and oyster reefs. Partner organizations conducted ground counts in most states. We used high resolution still photography to determine detection rates for estimates of the number of birds in particular flocks, and we used ground counts to determine detection rates of flocks. Using a combination of ground and aerial counts, we estimated the population of eastern American oystercatchers to be 10,971 +/- 298. Aerial surveys can serve an important management function for shorebirds and possibly other coastal waterbirds by providing population status and trend information across a wide geographic scale.

Estimating finite-population reproductive numbers in heterogeneous populations.

PubMed

Keegan, Lindsay T; Dushoff, Jonathan

2016-05-21

The basic reproductive number, R0, is one of the most important epidemiological quantities. R0 provides a threshold for elimination and determines when a disease can spread or when a disease will die out. Classically, R0 is calculated assuming an infinite population of identical hosts. Previous work has shown that heterogeneity in the host mixing rate increases R0 in an infinite population. However, it has been suggested that in a finite population, heterogeneity in the mixing rate may actually decrease the finite-population reproductive numbers. Here, we outline a framework for discussing different types of heterogeneity in disease parameters, and how these affect disease spread and control. We calculate "finite-population reproductive numbers" with different types of heterogeneity, and show that in a finite population, heterogeneity has complicated effects on the reproductive number. We find that simple heterogeneity decreases the finite-population reproductive number, whereas heterogeneity in the intrinsic mixing rate (which affects both infectiousness and susceptibility) increases the finite-population reproductive number when R0 is small relative to the size of the population and decreases the finite-population reproductive number when R0 is large relative to the size of the population. Although heterogeneity has complicated effects on the finite-population reproductive numbers, its implications for control are straightforward: when R0 is large relative to the size of the population, heterogeneity decreases the finite-population reproductive numbers, making disease control or elimination easier than predicted by R0. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intrapopulation variation in stature and body proportions: social status and sex differences in an Italian medieval population (Trino Vercellese, VC).

PubMed

Vercellotti, Giuseppe; Stout, Sam D; Boano, Rosa; Sciulli, Paul W

2011-06-01

The phenotypic expression of adult body size and shape results from synergistic interactions between hereditary factors and environmental conditions experienced during growth. Variation in body size and shape occurs even in genetically relatively homogeneous groups, due to different occurrence, duration, and timing of growth insults. Understanding the causes and patterns of intrapopulation variation can foster meaningful information on early life conditions in living and past populations. This study assesses the pattern of biological variation in body size and shape attributable to sex and social status in a medieval Italian population. The sample includes 52 (20 female, 32 male) adult individuals from the medieval population of Trino Vercellese, Italy. Differences in element size and overall body size (skeletal height and body mass) were assessed through Monte Carlo methods, while univariate non-parametric tests and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) were employed to examine segmental and overall body proportions. Discriminant Analysis was employed to determine the predictive value of individual skeletal elements for social status in the population. Our results highlight a distinct pattern in body size and shape variation in relation to status and sex. Male subsamples exhibit significant postcranial variation in body size, while female subsamples express smaller, nonsignificant differences. The analysis of segmental proportions highlighted differences in trunk/lower limb proportions between different status samples, and PCA indicated that in terms of purely morphological variation high status males were distinct from all other groups. The pattern observed likely resulted from a combination of biological factors and cultural practices. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Evolution of a Fluctuating Population in a Randomly Switching Environment.

PubMed

Wienand, Karl; Frey, Erwin; Mobilia, Mauro

2017-10-13

Environment plays a fundamental role in the competition for resources, and hence in the evolution of populations. Here, we study a well-mixed, finite population consisting of two strains competing for the limited resources provided by an environment that randomly switches between states of abundance and scarcity. Assuming that one strain grows slightly faster than the other, we consider two scenarios-one of pure resource competition, and one in which one strain provides a public good-and investigate how environmental randomness (external noise) coupled to demographic (internal) noise determines the population's fixation properties and size distribution. By analytical means and simulations, we show that these coupled sources of noise can significantly enhance the fixation probability of the slower-growing species. We also show that the population size distribution can be unimodal, bimodal, or multimodal and undergoes noise-induced transitions between these regimes when the rate of switching matches the population's growth rate.

Evolution of a Fluctuating Population in a Randomly Switching Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wienand, Karl; Frey, Erwin; Mobilia, Mauro

2017-10-01

Environment plays a fundamental role in the competition for resources, and hence in the evolution of populations. Here, we study a well-mixed, finite population consisting of two strains competing for the limited resources provided by an environment that randomly switches between states of abundance and scarcity. Assuming that one strain grows slightly faster than the other, we consider two scenarios—one of pure resource competition, and one in which one strain provides a public good—and investigate how environmental randomness (external noise) coupled to demographic (internal) noise determines the population's fixation properties and size distribution. By analytical means and simulations, we show that these coupled sources of noise can significantly enhance the fixation probability of the slower-growing species. We also show that the population size distribution can be unimodal, bimodal, or multimodal and undergoes noise-induced transitions between these regimes when the rate of switching matches the population's growth rate.

The Importance of Teaching Power in Statistical Hypothesis Testing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Olinsky, Alan; Schumacher, Phyllis; Quinn, John

2012-01-01

In this paper, we discuss the importance of teaching power considerations in statistical hypothesis testing. Statistical power analysis determines the ability of a study to detect a meaningful effect size, where the effect size is the difference between the hypothesized value of the population parameter under the null hypothesis and the true value…

[Civil status and suicide].

PubMed

Gaxiola-Robles, Ramón; Bitzer-Quintero, Oscar Kurt; García-González, Adolfo; Celis-de la Rosa, Alfredo

2009-01-01

To determine if civil status acts as a risk factor in suicide and how it modifies according to gender, age and population size. A retrospective study which analyzes information from the mortality data from the National Institute of Statistics, Geography and Information, from 1998 to 2002. Variables like suicides age, sex, cause of death, federal entity, population size and civil status were registered. Single men showed twofold risk for committing suicide. Women did not show any associated risk for suicide according to civil status. The risk of married men for committing suicide increased gradually with age. Medium-sized communities with less than 19,999 habitants presented the highest risk for habitants to commit suicide. Suicide is associated to gender especially to men who are not married and living in small and medium-sized communities. One explanation could be the lack of integrated behavior as defined by Emile Durkheim, where the physical density of society will determine behavior and ideas. This social structure phenomenon is called the "moral cocoon." This works around the individual being less individualistic and granting him/her the feeling of belonging to a group.

Both size-frequency distribution and sub-populations of the main-belt asteroid population are consistent with YORP-induced rotational fission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobson, S.; Scheeres, D.; Rossi, A.; Marzari, F.; Davis, D.

2014-07-01

From the results of a comprehensive asteroid-population-evolution model, we conclude that the YORP-induced rotational-fission hypothesis has strong repercussions for the small size end of the main-belt asteroid size-frequency distribution and is consistent with observed asteroid-population statistics and with the observed sub-populations of binary asteroids, asteroid pairs and contact binaries. The foundation of this model is the asteroid-rotation model of Marzari et al. (2011) and Rossi et al. (2009), which incorporates both the YORP effect and collisional evolution. This work adds to that model the rotational fission hypothesis (i.e. when the rotation rate exceeds a critical value, erosion and binary formation occur; Scheeres 2007) and binary-asteroid evolution (Jacobson & Scheeres, 2011). The YORP-effect timescale for large asteroids with diameters D > ˜ 6 km is longer than the collision timescale in the main belt, thus the frequency of large asteroids is determined by a collisional equilibrium (e.g. Bottke 2005), but for small asteroids with diameters D < ˜ 6 km, the asteroid-population evolution model confirms that YORP-induced rotational fission destroys small asteroids more frequently than collisions. Therefore, the frequency of these small asteroids is determined by an equilibrium between the creation of new asteroids out of the impact debris of larger asteroids and the destruction of these asteroids by YORP-induced rotational fission. By introducing a new source of destruction that varies strongly with size, YORP-induced rotational fission alters the slope of the size-frequency distribution. Using the outputs of the asteroid-population evolution model and a 1-D collision evolution model, we can generate this new size-frequency distribution and it matches the change in slope observed by the SKADS survey (Gladman 2009). This agreement is achieved with both an accretional power-law or a truncated ''Asteroids were Born Big'' size-frequency distribution (Weidenschilling 2010, Morbidelli 2009). The binary-asteroid evolution model is highly constrained by the modeling done in Jacobson & Scheeres, and therefore the asteroid-population evolution model has only two significant free parameters: the ratio of low-to-high-mass-ratio binaries formed after rotational fission events and the mean strength of the binary YORP (BYORP) effect. Using this model, we successfully reproduce the observed small-asteroid sub-populations, which orthogonally constrain the two free parameters. We find the outcome of rotational fission most likely produces an initial mass-ratio fraction that is four to eight times as likely to produce high-mass-ratio systems as low-mass-ratio systems, which is consistent with rotational fission creating binary systems in a flat distribution with respect to mass ratio. We also find that the mean of the log-normal BYORP coefficient distribution B ≈ 10^{-2}.

Variables influencing allocation of capital expenditure in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muda, Iskandar; Naibaho, Revmianson

2018-03-01

The purpose of this study is to examine the factors affecting capital expenditure in Indonesia. The independent variables used are The Effects of Financing Surplus, Total Population and Regional Sizes and the dependent variable used is The Effects of Financing Surplus. This type of research is a causal associative research. The type of data used is secondary data in severals provinces in Indonesia with multiple regression analysis. The results show significantly the determinants of capital expenditure allocation in Indonesia are affected by Financing Surplus, Total Population and Regional Sizes.

Navigating aerial transects with a laptop computer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anthony, R. Michael; Stehn, R.A.

1994-01-01

SUMMARY: A comparison is made of different methods of determining size of home range from grid trapping data. Studies of artificial populations show that a boundary strip method of measuring area and an adjusted range length give sizes closer to the true range than do minimum area or observed range length methods. In simulated trapping of artificial populations, the known range size increases with successive captures until a level is reached that approximates the true range. The same general pattern is followed whether traps are visited at random or traps nearer the center of the range are favored; but when central traps are favored the curve levels more slowly. Range size is revealed with fewer captures when traps are far apart than when they are close together. The curve levels more slowly for oblong ranges than for circular ranges of the same area. Fewer captures are required to determine range length than to determine range area. Other examples of simulated trapping in artificial populations are used to provide measurements of distances from the center of activity and distances between successive captures. These are compared with similar measurements taken from Peromyscus trapping data. The similarity of range sizes found in certain field comparisons of area trapping, colored scat collections, and trailing is cited. A comparison of home range data obtained by area trapping and nest box studies is discussed. It is shown that when traps are set too far apart to include two or more in the range of each animal, calculation of average range size gives biased results. The smaller ranges are not expressed and cannot be included in the averages. The result is that range estimates are smaller at closer spacings and greater at wider spacings, purely as a result of these erroneous calculations and not reflecting any varying behavior of the animals. The problem of variation in apparent home range with variation in trap spacing is considered further by trapping in an artificial population. It is found that trap spacing can alter the apparent size of range even when biological factors are excluded and trap visiting is random. The desirability of excluding travels outside the normal range from home range calculations is discussed. Effects of varying the trapping plan by setting alternate rows of traps, or setting two traps per site, are discussed briefly.

A comparison of certain methods of measuring ranges of small mammals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stickel, L.F.

1954-01-01

SUMMARY: A comparison is made of different methods of determining size of home range from grid trapping data. Studies of artificial populations show that a boundary strip method of measuring area and an adjusted range length give sizes closer to the true range than do minimum area or observed range length methods. In simulated trapping of artificial populations, the known range size increases with successive captures until a level is reached that approximates the true range. The same general pattern is followed whether traps are visited at random or traps nearer the center of the range are favored; but when central traps are favored the curve levels more slowly. Range size is revealed with fewer captures when traps are far apart than when they are close together. The curve levels more slowly for oblong ranges than for circular ranges of the same area. Fewer captures are required to determine range length than to determine range area. Other examples of simulated trapping in artificial populations are used to provide measurements of distances from the center of activity and distances between successive captures. These are compared with similar measurements taken from Peromyscus trapping data. The similarity of range sizes found in certain field comparisons of area trapping, colored scat collections, and trailing is cited. A comparison of home range data obtained by area trapping and nest box studies is discussed. It is shown that when traps are set too far apart to include two or more in the range of each animal, calculation of average range size gives biased results. The smaller ranges are not expressed and cannot be included in the averages. The result is that range estimates are smaller at closer spacings and greater at wider spacings, purely as a result of these erroneous calculations and not reflecting any varying behavior of the animals. The problem of variation in apparent home range with variation in trap spacing is considered further by trapping in an artificial population. It is found that trap spacing can alter the apparent size of range even when biological factors are excluded and trap visiting is random. The desirability of excluding travels outside the normal range from home range calculations is discussed. Effects of varying the trapping plan by setting alternate rows of traps, or setting two traps per site, are discussed briefly.

Sample size determination for estimating antibody seroconversion rate under stable malaria transmission intensity.

PubMed

Sepúlveda, Nuno; Drakeley, Chris

2015-04-03

In the last decade, several epidemiological studies have demonstrated the potential of using seroprevalence (SP) and seroconversion rate (SCR) as informative indicators of malaria burden in low transmission settings or in populations on the cusp of elimination. However, most of studies are designed to control ensuing statistical inference over parasite rates and not on these alternative malaria burden measures. SP is in essence a proportion and, thus, many methods exist for the respective sample size determination. In contrast, designing a study where SCR is the primary endpoint, is not an easy task because precision and statistical power are affected by the age distribution of a given population. Two sample size calculators for SCR estimation are proposed. The first one consists of transforming the confidence interval for SP into the corresponding one for SCR given a known seroreversion rate (SRR). The second calculator extends the previous one to the most common situation where SRR is unknown. In this situation, data simulation was used together with linear regression in order to study the expected relationship between sample size and precision. The performance of the first sample size calculator was studied in terms of the coverage of the confidence intervals for SCR. The results pointed out to eventual problems of under or over coverage for sample sizes ≤250 in very low and high malaria transmission settings (SCR ≤ 0.0036 and SCR ≥ 0.29, respectively). The correct coverage was obtained for the remaining transmission intensities with sample sizes ≥ 50. Sample size determination was then carried out for cross-sectional surveys using realistic SCRs from past sero-epidemiological studies and typical age distributions from African and non-African populations. For SCR < 0.058, African studies require a larger sample size than their non-African counterparts in order to obtain the same precision. The opposite happens for the remaining transmission intensities. With respect to the second sample size calculator, simulation unravelled the likelihood of not having enough information to estimate SRR in low transmission settings (SCR ≤ 0.0108). In that case, the respective estimates tend to underestimate the true SCR. This problem is minimized by sample sizes of no less than 500 individuals. The sample sizes determined by this second method highlighted the prior expectation that, when SRR is not known, sample sizes are increased in relation to the situation of a known SRR. In contrast to the first sample size calculation, African studies would now require lesser individuals than their counterparts conducted elsewhere, irrespective of the transmission intensity. Although the proposed sample size calculators can be instrumental to design future cross-sectional surveys, the choice of a particular sample size must be seen as a much broader exercise that involves weighting statistical precision with ethical issues, available human and economic resources, and possible time constraints. Moreover, if the sample size determination is carried out on varying transmission intensities, as done here, the respective sample sizes can also be used in studies comparing sites with different malaria transmission intensities. In conclusion, the proposed sample size calculators are a step towards the design of better sero-epidemiological studies. Their basic ideas show promise to be applied to the planning of alternative sampling schemes that may target or oversample specific age groups.

DESCARTES' RULE OF SIGNS AND THE IDENTIFIABILITY OF POPULATION DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS FROM GENOMIC VARIATION DATA.

PubMed

Bhaskar, Anand; Song, Yun S

2014-01-01

The sample frequency spectrum (SFS) is a widely-used summary statistic of genomic variation in a sample of homologous DNA sequences. It provides a highly efficient dimensional reduction of large-scale population genomic data and its mathematical dependence on the underlying population demography is well understood, thus enabling the development of efficient inference algorithms. However, it has been recently shown that very different population demographies can actually generate the same SFS for arbitrarily large sample sizes. Although in principle this nonidentifiability issue poses a thorny challenge to statistical inference, the population size functions involved in the counterexamples are arguably not so biologically realistic. Here, we revisit this problem and examine the identifiability of demographic models under the restriction that the population sizes are piecewise-defined where each piece belongs to some family of biologically-motivated functions. Under this assumption, we prove that the expected SFS of a sample uniquely determines the underlying demographic model, provided that the sample is sufficiently large. We obtain a general bound on the sample size sufficient for identifiability; the bound depends on the number of pieces in the demographic model and also on the type of population size function in each piece. In the cases of piecewise-constant, piecewise-exponential and piecewise-generalized-exponential models, which are often assumed in population genomic inferences, we provide explicit formulas for the bounds as simple functions of the number of pieces. Lastly, we obtain analogous results for the "folded" SFS, which is often used when there is ambiguity as to which allelic type is ancestral. Our results are proved using a generalization of Descartes' rule of signs for polynomials to the Laplace transform of piecewise continuous functions.

DESCARTES’ RULE OF SIGNS AND THE IDENTIFIABILITY OF POPULATION DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS FROM GENOMIC VARIATION DATA1

PubMed Central

Bhaskar, Anand; Song, Yun S.

2016-01-01

The sample frequency spectrum (SFS) is a widely-used summary statistic of genomic variation in a sample of homologous DNA sequences. It provides a highly efficient dimensional reduction of large-scale population genomic data and its mathematical dependence on the underlying population demography is well understood, thus enabling the development of efficient inference algorithms. However, it has been recently shown that very different population demographies can actually generate the same SFS for arbitrarily large sample sizes. Although in principle this nonidentifiability issue poses a thorny challenge to statistical inference, the population size functions involved in the counterexamples are arguably not so biologically realistic. Here, we revisit this problem and examine the identifiability of demographic models under the restriction that the population sizes are piecewise-defined where each piece belongs to some family of biologically-motivated functions. Under this assumption, we prove that the expected SFS of a sample uniquely determines the underlying demographic model, provided that the sample is sufficiently large. We obtain a general bound on the sample size sufficient for identifiability; the bound depends on the number of pieces in the demographic model and also on the type of population size function in each piece. In the cases of piecewise-constant, piecewise-exponential and piecewise-generalized-exponential models, which are often assumed in population genomic inferences, we provide explicit formulas for the bounds as simple functions of the number of pieces. Lastly, we obtain analogous results for the “folded” SFS, which is often used when there is ambiguity as to which allelic type is ancestral. Our results are proved using a generalization of Descartes’ rule of signs for polynomials to the Laplace transform of piecewise continuous functions. PMID:28018011

Mineralogies and source regions of near-Earth asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunn, Tasha L.; Burbine, Thomas H.; Bottke, William F.; Clark, John P.

2013-01-01

Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) offer insight into a size range of objects that are not easily observed in the main asteroid belt. Previous studies on the diversity of the NEA population have relied primarily on modeling and statistical analysis to determine asteroid compositions. Olivine and pyroxene, the dominant minerals in most asteroids, have characteristic absorption features in the visible and near-infrared (VISNIR) wavelengths that can be used to determine their compositions and abundances. However, formulas previously used for deriving compositions do not work very well for ordinary chondrite assemblages. Because two-thirds of NEAs have ordinary chondrite-like spectral parameters, it is essential to determine accurate mineralogies. Here we determine the band area ratios and Band I centers of 72 NEAs with visible and near-infrared spectra and use new calibrations to derive the mineralogies 47 of these NEAs with ordinary chondrite-like spectral parameters. Our results indicate that the majority of NEAs have LL-chondrite mineralogies. This is consistent with results from previous studies but continues to be in conflict with the population of recovered ordinary chondrites, of which H chondrites are the most abundant. To look for potential correlations between asteroid size, composition, and source region, we use a dynamical model to determine the most probable source region of each NEA. Model results indicate that NEAs with LL chondrite mineralogies appear to be preferentially derived from the ν6 secular resonance. This supports the hypothesis that the Flora family, which lies near the ν6 resonance, is the source of the LL chondrites. With the exception of basaltic achondrites, NEAs with non-chondrite spectral parameters are slightly less likely to be derived from the ν6 resonance than NEAs with chondrite-like mineralogies. The population of NEAs with H, L, and LL chondrite mineralogies does not appear to be influenced by size, which would suggest that ordinary chondrites are not preferentially sourced from meter-sized objects due to Yarkovsky effect.

Rain, prey and predators: climatically driven shifts in frog abundance modify reproductive allometry in a tropical snake.

PubMed

Brown, Gregory P; Shine, Richard

2007-11-01

To predict the impacts of climate change on animal populations, we need long-term data sets on the effects of annual climatic variation on the demographic traits (growth, survival, reproductive output) that determine population viability. One frequent complication is that fecundity also depends upon maternal body size, a trait that often spans a wide range within a single population. During an eight-year field study, we measured annual variation in weather conditions, frog abundance and snake reproduction on a floodplain in the Australian wet-dry tropics. Frog numbers varied considerably from year to year, and were highest in years with hotter wetter conditions during the monsoonal season ("wet season"). Mean maternal body sizes, egg sizes and post-partum maternal body conditions of frog-eating snakes (keelback, Tropidonophis mairii, Colubridae) showed no significant annual variation over this period, but mean clutch sizes were higher in years with higher prey abundance. Larger females were more sensitive to frog abundance in this respect than were smaller conspecifics, so that the rate at which fecundity increased with body size varied among years, and was highest when prey availability was greatest. Thus, the link between female body size and reproductive output varied among years, with climatic factors modifying the relative reproductive rates of larger (older) versus smaller (younger) animals within the keelback population.

Issues using linkage of hospital records and death certificate data to determine the size of a potential palliative care population.

PubMed

Brameld, Kate; Spilsbury, Katrina; Rosenwax, Lorna; Murray, Kevin; Semmens, James

2017-06-01

Studies aiming to identify palliative care populations have used data from death certificates and in some cases hospital records. The size and characteristics of the identified populations can show considerable variation depending on the data sources used. It is important that service planners and researchers are aware of this. To illustrate the differences in the size and characteristics of a potential palliative care population depending on the differential use of linked hospital records and death certificate data. Retrospective cohort study. The cohort consisted of 23,852 people aged 20 years and over who died in Western Australia between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2010 after excluding deaths related to pregnancy or trauma. Within this cohort, the number, proportion and characteristics of people who died from one or more of 10 medical conditions considered amenable to palliative care were identified using linked hospital records and death certificate data. Depending on the information source(s) used, between 43% and 73% of the 23,852 people who died had a condition potentially amenable to palliative care identified. The median age at death and the sex distribution of the decedents by condition also varied with the information source. Health service planners and researchers need to be aware of the limitations when using hospital records and death certificate data to determine a potential palliative care population. The use of Emergency Department and other administrative data sources could further exacerbate this variation.

What is Happening in Rural Education Today: A Status Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tamblyn, Lewis R.

Arrayed by size of place, the U.S. rural population consitutes 31.4 percent of total U.S. population. Unfortunately, "rural" and "rural education" are often discussed as if they were separate entities. Actually they are inextricably interwoven, for those very factors which describe rurality very much determine rural education. Documenting the…

Environmental factors influence both abundance and genetic diversity in a widespread bird species

PubMed Central

Liu, Yang; Webber, Simone; Bowgen, Katharine; Schmaltz, Lucie; Bradley, Katharine; Halvarsson, Peter; Abdelgadir, Mohanad; Griesser, Michael

2013-01-01

Genetic diversity is one of the key evolutionary variables that correlate with population size, being of critical importance for population viability and the persistence of species. Genetic diversity can also have important ecological consequences within populations, and in turn, ecological factors may drive patterns of genetic diversity. However, the relationship between the genetic diversity of a population and how this interacts with ecological processes has so far only been investigated in a few studies. Here, we investigate the link between ecological factors, local population size, and allelic diversity, using a field study of a common bird species, the house sparrow (Passer domesticus). We studied sparrows outside the breeding season in a confined small valley dominated by dispersed farms and small-scale agriculture in southern France. Population surveys at 36 locations revealed that sparrows were more abundant in locations with high food availability. We then captured and genotyped 891 house sparrows at 10 microsatellite loci from a subset of these locations (N = 12). Population genetic analyses revealed weak genetic structure, where each locality represented a distinct substructure within the study area. We found that food availability was the main factor among others tested to influence the genetic structure between locations. These results suggest that ecological factors can have strong impacts on both population size per se and intrapopulation genetic variation even at a small scale. On a more general level, our data indicate that a patchy environment and low dispersal rate can result in fine-scale patterns of genetic diversity. Given the importance of genetic diversity for population viability, combining ecological and genetic data can help to identify factors limiting population size and determine the conservation potential of populations. PMID:24363897

Determinants of general practitioners' wages in England.

PubMed

Morris, Stephen; Goudie, Rosalind; Sutton, Matt; Gravelle, Hugh; Elliott, Robert; Hole, Arne Risa; Ma, Ada; Sibbald, Bonnie; Skåtun, Diane

2011-02-01

We analyse the determinants of annual net income and wages (net income/hours) of general practitioners (GPs) using data for 2271 GPs in England recorded during Autumn 2008. The average GP had an annual net income of £97,500 and worked 43 h per week. The mean wage was £51 per h. Net income and wages depended on gender, experience, list size, partnership size, whether or not the GP worked in a dispensing practice, whether they were salaried of self-employed, whether they worked in a practice with a nationally or locally negotiated contract, and the characteristics of the local population (proportion from ethnic minorities, rurality, and income deprivation). The findings have implications for pay discrimination by GP gender and ethnicity, GP preferences for partnership size, incentives for competition for patients, and compensating differentials for local population characteristics. They also shed light on the attractiveness to GPs in England of locally negotiated (personal medical services) versus nationally negotiated (general medical services) contracts.

Match or mismatch: the influence of phenology on size-dependent life history and divergence in population structure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Borcherding, Jost; Beeck, Peter; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Scharf, Werner R.

2010-01-01

Summary 1. In gape-limited predators, body size asymmetries determine the outcome of predator-prey interactions. Due to ontogenetic changes in body size, the intensity of intra- and interspecific interactions may change rapidly between the match situation of a predator-prey system and the mismatch situation in which competition, including competition with the prey, dominates. 2. Based on a physiologically structured population model using the European perch (Perca fluviatilis), analysis was performed on how prey density (bream, Abramis brama), initial size differences in the young-of-the-year (YOY) age cohort of the predator, and phenology (time-gap in hatching of predator and prey) influence the size structure of the predator cohort. 3. In relation to the seasonality of reproduction, the match situation of the predator-prey system occurred when perch hatched earlier than bream and when no gape-size limitations existed, leading to decreased size divergence in the predator age cohort. Decreased size divergence was also found when bream hatched much earlier than perch, preventing perch predation on bream occurring, which, in turn, increased the competitive interaction of the perch with bream for the common prey, zooplankton; i.e. the mismatch situation in which also the mean size of the age cohort of the predator decreased. 4. In between the total match and the mismatch, however, only the largest individuals of the perch age cohort were able to prey on the bream, while smaller conspecifics got trapped in competition with each other and with bream for zooplankton, leading to enlarged differences in growth that increased size divergence. 5. The modelling results were combined with 7 years of field data in a lake, where large differences in the length-frequency distribution of YOY perch were observed after their first summer. These field data corroborate that phenology and prey density per predator are important mechanisms in determining size differences within the YOY age cohort of the predator. 6. The results demonstrate that the switch between competitive interactions and a predator-prey relationship depended on phenology. This resulted in pronounced size differences in the YOY age cohort, which had far-reaching consequences for the entire predator population.

GEO Collisional Risk Assessment Based on Analysis of NASA-WISE Data and Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howard, S.; Murray-Krezan, J.; Dao, P.; Surka, D.

From December 2009 thru 2011 the NASA Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) gathered radiometrically exquisite measurements of debris in near Earth orbits, substantially augmenting the current catalog of known debris. The WISE GEO-belt debris population adds approximately 2,000 previously uncataloged objects. This paper describes characterization of the WISE GEO-belt orbital debris population in terms of location, epoch, and size. The WISE GEO-belt debris population characteristics are compared with the publically available U.S. catalog and previous descriptions of the GEO-belt debris population. We found that our results differ from previously published debris distributions, suggesting the need for updates to collision probability models and a better measurement-based understanding of the debris population. Previous studies of collisional rate in GEO invoke the presence of a large number of debris in the regime of sizes too small to track, i.e. not in the catalog, but large enough to cause significant damage and fragmentation in a collision. A common approach is to estimate that population of small debris by assuming that it is dominated by fragments and therefore should follow trends observed in fragmentation events or laboratory fragmentation tests. In other words, the population of debris can be extrapolated from trackable sizes to small sizes using an empirically determined trend of population as a function of size. We use new information suggested by the analysis of WISE IR measurements to propose an updated relationship. Our trend is an improvement because we expect that an IR emissive signature is a more reliable indicator of physical size. Based on the revised relationship, we re-estimate the total collisional rate in the GEO belt with the inclusion of projected uncatalogued debris and applying a conjunction assessment technique. Through modeling, we evaluate the hot spots near the geopotential wells and the effects of fragmentation in the GEO graveyard to the collision with GEO objects.

The effect of seasonal birth pulses on pathogen persistence in wild mammal populations.

PubMed

Peel, A J; Pulliam, J R C; Luis, A D; Plowright, R K; O'Shea, T J; Hayman, D T S; Wood, J L N; Webb, C T; Restif, O

2014-07-07

The notion of a critical community size (CCS), or population size that is likely to result in long-term persistence of a communicable disease, has been developed based on the empirical observations of acute immunizing infections in human populations, and extended for use in wildlife populations. Seasonal birth pulses are frequently observed in wildlife and are expected to impact infection dynamics, yet their effect on pathogen persistence and CCS have not been considered. To investigate this issue theoretically, we use stochastic epidemiological models to ask how host life-history traits and infection parameters interact to determine pathogen persistence within a closed population. We fit seasonal birth pulse models to data from diverse mammalian species in order to identify realistic parameter ranges. When varying the synchrony of the birth pulse with all other parameters being constant, our model predicted that the CCS can vary by more than two orders of magnitude. Tighter birth pulses tended to drive pathogen extinction by creating large amplitude oscillations in prevalence, especially with high demographic turnover and short infectious periods. Parameters affecting the relative timing of the epidemic and birth pulse peaks determined the intensity and direction of the effect of pre-existing immunity in the population on the pathogen's ability to persist beyond the initial epidemic following its introduction.

The effect of seasonal birth pulses on pathogen persistence in wild mammal populations

PubMed Central

Peel, A. J.; Pulliam, J. R. C.; Luis, A. D.; Plowright, R. K.; O'Shea, T. J.; Hayman, D. T. S.; Wood, J. L. N.; Webb, C. T.; Restif, O.

2014-01-01

The notion of a critical community size (CCS), or population size that is likely to result in long-term persistence of a communicable disease, has been developed based on the empirical observations of acute immunizing infections in human populations, and extended for use in wildlife populations. Seasonal birth pulses are frequently observed in wildlife and are expected to impact infection dynamics, yet their effect on pathogen persistence and CCS have not been considered. To investigate this issue theoretically, we use stochastic epidemiological models to ask how host life-history traits and infection parameters interact to determine pathogen persistence within a closed population. We fit seasonal birth pulse models to data from diverse mammalian species in order to identify realistic parameter ranges. When varying the synchrony of the birth pulse with all other parameters being constant, our model predicted that the CCS can vary by more than two orders of magnitude. Tighter birth pulses tended to drive pathogen extinction by creating large amplitude oscillations in prevalence, especially with high demographic turnover and short infectious periods. Parameters affecting the relative timing of the epidemic and birth pulse peaks determined the intensity and direction of the effect of pre-existing immunity in the population on the pathogen's ability to persist beyond the initial epidemic following its introduction. PMID:24827436

Enhancement of Population Size of a Biological Control Agent and Efficacy in Control of Bacterial Speck of Tomato through Salicylate and Ammonium Sulfate Amendments

PubMed Central

Ji, Pingsheng; Wilson, Mark

2003-01-01

Sodium salicylate and ammonium sulfate were applied to leaf surfaces along with suspensions of the biological control agents Pseudomonas syringae Cit7(pNAH7), which catabolizes salicylate, and Cit7, which does not catabolize salicylate, to determine whether enhanced biological control of bacterial speck of tomato could be achieved. Foliar amendment with salicylate alone significantly enhanced the population size and the efficacy of Cit7(pNAH7), but not of Cit7, on tomato leaves. Application of ammonium sulfate alone did not result in enhanced population size or biological control efficacy of either Cit7(pNAH7) or Cit7; however, when foliar amendments with both sodium salicylate and ammonium sulfate were applied, a trend toward further increases in population size and biological control efficacy of Cit7(pNAH7) was observed. This study demonstrates the potential of using a selective carbon source to improve the efficacy of a bacterial biological control agent in the control of a bacterial plant disease and supports previous conclusions that the growth of P. syringae in the phyllosphere is primarily carbon limited and secondarily nitrogen limited. PMID:12571060

COLLISIONAL EVOLUTION OF ULTRA-WIDE TRANS-NEPTUNIAN BINARIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parker, Alex H.; Kavelaars, J. J., E-mail: alexhp@uvic.ca

2012-01-10

The widely separated, near-equal mass binaries hosted by the cold classical Kuiper Belt are delicately bound and subject to disruption by many perturbing processes. We use analytical arguments and numerical simulations to determine their collisional lifetimes given various impactor size distributions and include the effects of mass loss and multiple impacts over the lifetime of each system. These collisional lifetimes constrain the population of small (R {approx}> 1 km) objects currently residing in the Kuiper Belt and confirm that the size distribution slope at small size cannot be excessively steep-likely q {approx}< 3.5. We track mutual semimajor axis, inclination, andmore » eccentricity evolution through our simulations and show that it is unlikely that the wide binary population represents an evolved tail of the primordially tight binary population. We find that if the wide binaries are a collisionally eroded population, their primordial mutual orbit planes must have preferred to lie in the plane of the solar system. Finally, we find that current limits on the size distribution at small radii remain high enough that the prospect of detecting dust-producing collisions in real time in the Kuiper Belt with future optical surveys is feasible.« less

The Global Contribution of Secondary Craters on the Icy Satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoogenboom, T.; Johnson, K. E.; Schenk, P.

2014-12-01

At present, surface ages of bodies in the Outer Solar System are determined only from crater size-frequency distributions (a method dependent on an understanding of the projectile populations responsible for impact craters in these planetary systems). To derive accurate ages using impact craters, the impactor population must be understood. Impact craters in the Outer Solar System can be primary, secondary or sesquinary. The contribution of secondary craters to the overall population has recently become a "topic of interest." Our objective is to better understand the contribution of dispersed secondary craters to the small crater populations, and ultimately that of small comets to the projectile flux on icy satellites in general. We measure the diameters of obvious secondary craters (determined by e.g. irregular crater shape, small size, clustering) formed by all primary craters on Ganymede for which we have sufficiently high resolution data to map secondary craters. Primary craters mapped range from approximately 40 km to 210 km. Image resolution ranges from 45 to 440 m/pixel. Bright terrain on Ganymede is our primary focus. These resurfaced terrains have relatively low crater densities and serve as a basis for characterizing secondary populations as a function of primary size on an icy body for the first time. Although focusing on Ganymede, we also investigate secondary crater size, frequency, distribution, and formation, as well as secondary crater chain formation on icy satellites throughout the Saturnian and Jovian systems principally Rhea. We compare our results to similar studies of secondary cratering on the Moon and Mercury. Using Galileo and Voyager data, we have identified approximately 3,400 secondary craters on Ganymede. In some cases, we measured crater density as a function of distance from a primary crater. Because of the limitations of the Galileo data, it is necessary to extrapolate from small data sets to the global population of secondary craters. Nonetheless, we confirm that secondary craters on Ganymede have narrow size-frequency distributions and that they correlate with primary crater diameter. From these data we will evaluate the contribution of secondary craters over a range of crater diameters.

Comparing life history characteristics of Lake Michigan’s naturalized and stocked Chinook Salmon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kerns, Janice A; Rogers, Mark W.; Bunnell, David B.; Claramunt, Randall M.; Collingsworth, Paris D.

2016-01-01

Lake Michigan supports popular fisheries for Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that have been sustained by stocking since the late 1960s. Natural recruitment of Chinook Salmon in Lake Michigan has increased in the past few decades and currently contributes more than 50% of Chinook Salmon recruits. We hypothesized that selective forces differ for naturalized populations born in the wild and hatchery populations, resulting in divergent life history characteristics with implications for Chinook Salmon population production and the Lake Michigan fishery. First, we conducted a historical analysis to determine if life history characteristics changed through time as the Chinook Salmon population became increasingly naturalized. Next, we conducted a 2-year field study of naturalized and hatchery stocked Chinook Salmon spawning populations to quantify differences in fecundity, egg size, timing of spawning, and size at maturity. In general, our results did not indicate significant life history divergence between naturalized and hatchery-stocked Chinook Salmon populations in Lake Michigan. Although historical changes in adult sex ratio were correlated with the proportion of naturalized individuals, changes in weight at maturity were better explained by density-dependent factors. The field study revealed no divergence in fecundity, timing of spawning, or size at maturity, and only small differences in egg size (hatchery > naturalized). For the near future, our results suggest that the limited life history differences observed between Chinook Salmon of naturalized and hatchery origin will not lead to large differences in characteristics important to the dynamics of the population or fishery.

A diffusion-based approach to stochastic individual growth and energy budget, with consequences to life-history optimization and population dynamics.

PubMed

Filin, I

2009-06-01

Using diffusion processes, I model stochastic individual growth, given exogenous hazards and starvation risk. By maximizing survival to final size, optimal life histories (e.g. switching size for habitat/dietary shift) are determined by two ratios: mean growth rate over growth variance (diffusion coefficient) and mortality rate over mean growth rate; all are size dependent. For example, switching size decreases with either ratio, if both are positive. I provide examples and compare with previous work on risk-sensitive foraging and the energy-predation trade-off. I then decompose individual size into reversibly and irreversibly growing components, e.g. reserves and structure. I provide a general expression for optimal structural growth, when reserves grow stochastically. I conclude that increased growth variance of reserves delays structural growth (raises threshold size for its commencement) but may eventually lead to larger structures. The effect depends on whether the structural trait is related to foraging or defence. Implications for population dynamics are discussed.

Spectral Classification of NEOWISE Observed Near-Earth Asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desira, Christopher

2017-01-01

Near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) allow us to determine the properties of the smallest solar system bodies in the sub-kilometer size range. Large (>few km) NEAs have albedos which span a wide range from ~0.05 to ~0.3 and are known to correlate with asteroid composition, determined by analysing the shape of their optical reflectance spectra. It is, however, still unknown how this relationship extends into the sub-kilometer population.NEOWISE has performed a thermal infrared survey that provides the largest inventory to date of well-determined sizes and albedos for NEAs, including many in the sub-km population. This provides an opportunity to test the albedo-surface composition correlation in a new size regime. If it is found to hold, then a simple optical spectrum can give a well-constrained albedo and size estimate without the need for thermal IR measurements.The sizes and composition of many more sub-km sized NEAs are needed to aid in the understanding of the formation/evolution of the inner solar system and the characterisation of potentially hazardous objects, possible mission targets and even commercial mining operations.We obtained optical spectra of sub-kilometer NEOWISE-observed NEAs using the 1.5m Tillinghast telescope and the FAST spectrograph at the Whipple Observatory on Mt Hopkins, Arizona. We performed a taxonomic classification to identify their likely composition and combined this with NEOWISE data to look for known correlations between main belt asteroid spectral types and their optical albedos. Additionally, we tested the robustness of current data reduction methods in order to increase our confidence in the spectral classifications of NEAs.

Population delineation of polar bears using satellite collar data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bethke, R.; Taylor, Mitchell K.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Messier, François

1996-01-01

To produce reliable estimates of the size or vital rates of a given population, it is important that the boundaries of the population under study are clearly defined. This is particularly critical for large, migratory animals where levels of sustainable harvest are based on these estimates, and where small errors may have serious long-term consequences for the population. Once populations are delineated, rates of exchange between adjacent populations can be determined and accounted/corrected for when calculating abundance (e.g., based on mark-recapture data). Using satellite radio-collar locations for polar bears in the western Canadian Arctic, we illustrate one approach to delineating wildlife populations that integrates cluster analysis methods for determining group membership with home range plotting procedures to define spatial utilization. This approach is flexible with respect to the specific procedures used and provides an objective and quantitative basis for defining population boundaries.

Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

USGS Publications Warehouse

McEachern, Kathryn; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Ellis, Martha M.; Morris, William F.; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlen, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer I.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ganesan, Rengaian; Thorpe, Andrea S.; Menges, Eric S.

2013-01-01

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

PubMed

Crone, Elizabeth E; Ellis, Martha M; Morris, William F; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlén, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N; Knight, Tiffany M; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer L; Doak, Daniel F; Ganesan, Rengaian; McEachern, Kathyrn; Thorpe, Andrea S; Menges, Eric S

2013-10-01

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Temporal analysis of genetic structure to assess population dynamics of reintroduced swift foxes.

PubMed

Cullingham, Catherine I; Moehrenschlager, Axel

2013-12-01

Reintroductions are increasingly used to reestablish species, but a paucity of long-term postrelease monitoring has limited understanding of whether and when viable populations subsequently persist. We conducted temporal genetic analyses of reintroduced populations of swift foxes (Vulpes velox) in Canada (Alberta and Saskatchewan) and the United States (Montana). We used samples collected 4 years apart, 17 years from the initiation of the reintroduction, and 3 years after the conclusion of releases. To assess program success, we genotyped 304 hair samples, subsampled from the known range in 2000 and 2001, and 2005 and 2006, at 7 microsatellite loci. We compared diversity, effective population size, and genetic connectivity over time in each population. Diversity remained stable over time and there was evidence of increasing effective population size. We determined population structure in both periods after correcting for differences in sample sizes. The geographic distribution of these populations roughly corresponded with the original release locations, which suggests the release sites had residual effects on the population structure. However, given that both reintroduction sites had similar source populations, habitat fragmentation, due to cropland, may be associated with the population structure we found. Although our results indicate growing, stable populations, future connectivity analyses are warranted to ensure both populations are not subject to negative small-population effects. Our results demonstrate the importance of multiple sampling years to fully capture population dynamics of reintroduced populations. Análisis Temporal de la Estructura Genética para Evaluar la Dinámica Poblacional de Zorros (Vulpes velox) Reintroducidos. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Modeling the growth of individuals in plant populations: local density variation in a strand population of Xanthium strumarium (Asteraceae).

PubMed

Weiner, J; Kinsman, S; Williams, S

1998-11-01

We studied the growth of individual Xanthium strumarium plants growing at four naturally occurring local densities on a beach in Maine: (1) isolated plants, (2) pairs of plants ≤1 cm apart, (3) four plants within 4 cm of each other, and (4) discrete dense clumps of 10-39 plants. A combination of nondestructive measurements every 2 wk and parallel calibration harvests provided very good estimates of the growth in aboveground biomass of over 400 individual plants over 8 wk and afforded the opportunity to fit explicit growth models to 293 of them. There was large individual variation in growth and resultant size within the population and within all densities. Local crowding played a role in determining plant size within the population: there were significant differences in final size between all densities except pairs and quadruples, which were almost identical. Overall, plants growing at higher densities were more variable in growth and final size than plants growing at lower densities, but this was due to increased variation among groups (greater variation in local density and/or greater environmental heterogeneity), not to increased variation within groups. Thus, there was no evidence of size asymmetric competition in this population. The growth of most plants was close to exponential over the study period, but half the plants were slightly better fit by a sigmoidal (logistic) model. The proportion of plants better fit by the logistic model increased with density and with initial plant size. The use of explicit growth models over several growth intervals to describe stand development can provide more biological content and more statistical power than "growth-size" methods that analyze growth intervals separately.

Dynamics of morphological evolution in experimental Escherichia coli populations.

PubMed

Cui, F; Yuan, B

2016-08-30

Here, we applied a two-stage clonal expansion model of morphological (cell-size) evolution to a long-term evolution experiment with Escherichia coli. Using this model, we derived the incidence function of the appearance of cell-size stability, the waiting time until this morphological stability, and the conditional and unconditional probabilities of morphological stability. After assessing the parameter values, we verified that the calculated waiting time was consistent with the experimental results, demonstrating the effectiveness of the two-stage model. According to the relative contributions of parameters to the incidence function and the waiting time, cell-size evolution is largely determined by the promotion rate, i.e., the clonal expansion rate of selectively advantageous organisms. This rate plays a prominent role in the evolution of cell size in experimental populations, whereas all other evolutionary forces were found to be less influential.

Reproductive characteristics of migratory golden eagles in Denali National Park, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

McIntyre, Carol L.; Adams, Layne G.

1999-01-01

We describe reproductive characteristics of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) breeding in Denali National Park, Alaska during an entire snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) cycle, 1988-1997. Data on nesting eagles were collected at 58 to 72 nesting areas annually using two aerial surveys. Surveys were conducted during the incubation period to determine occupancy and nesting activities and late in the nestling period to count nestlings and determine nesting success. Annual occupancy rates of nesting areas did not vary significantly, whereas laying rates, success rates, and mean brood size varied significantly over the study period. Fledgling production for the study population varied sevenfold during the ten-year period. Laying rates, mean brood size, and overall population productivity were significantly correlated with abundance of cyclic snowshoe hare and Willow Ptarmigan (Lugopus lagopus) populations. Reproductive rates of Golden Eagles in Denali were similar to those of Golden Eagles from other high latitude study areas in North America, but lower than for Golden Eagles from temperate zone study areas in North America.

Gauging the threat: the first population estimate for white sharks in South Africa using photo identification and automated software.

PubMed

Towner, Alison V; Wcisel, Michelle A; Reisinger, Ryan R; Edwards, David; Jewell, Oliver J D

2013-01-01

South Africa is reputed to host the world's largest remaining population of white sharks, yet no studies have accurately determined a population estimate based on mark-recapture of live individuals. We used dorsal fin photographs (fin IDs) to identify white sharks in Gansbaai, South Africa, from January 2007-December 2011. We used the computer programme DARWIN to catalogue and match fin IDs of individuals; this is the first study to successfully use the software for white shark identification. The programme performed well despite a number of individual fins showing drastic changes in dorsal fin shape over time. Of 1682 fin IDs used, 532 unique individuals were identified. We estimated population size using the open-population POPAN parameterisation in Program MARK, which estimated the superpopulation size at 908 (95% confidence interval 808-1008). This estimated population size is considerably larger than those described at other aggregation areas of the species and is comparable to a previous South African population estimate conducted 16 years prior. Our assessment suggests the species has not made a marked recovery since being nationally protected in 1991. As such, additional international protection may prove vital for the long-term conservation of this threatened species.

Gauging the Threat: The First Population Estimate for White Sharks in South Africa Using Photo Identification and Automated Software

PubMed Central

Towner, Alison V.; Wcisel, Michelle A.; Reisinger, Ryan R.; Edwards, David; Jewell, Oliver J. D.

2013-01-01

South Africa is reputed to host the world’s largest remaining population of white sharks, yet no studies have accurately determined a population estimate based on mark-recapture of live individuals. We used dorsal fin photographs (fin IDs) to identify white sharks in Gansbaai, South Africa, from January 2007 – December 2011. We used the computer programme DARWIN to catalogue and match fin IDs of individuals; this is the first study to successfully use the software for white shark identification. The programme performed well despite a number of individual fins showing drastic changes in dorsal fin shape over time. Of 1682 fin IDs used, 532 unique individuals were identified. We estimated population size using the open-population POPAN parameterisation in Program MARK, which estimated the superpopulation size at 908 (95% confidence interval 808–1008). This estimated population size is considerably larger than those described at other aggregation areas of the species and is comparable to a previous South African population estimate conducted 16 years prior. Our assessment suggests the species has not made a marked recovery since being nationally protected in 1991. As such, additional international protection may prove vital for the long-term conservation of this threatened species. PMID:23776600

Climate and predation dominate juvenile and adult recruitment in a turtle with temperature-dependent sex determination.

PubMed

Schwanz, Lisa E; Spencer, Ricky-John; Bowden, Rachel M; Janzen, Fredric J

2010-10-01

Conditions experienced early in life can influence phenotypes in ecologically important ways, as exemplified by organisms with environmental sex determination. For organisms with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), variation in nest temperatures induces phenotypic variation that could impact population growth rates. In environments that vary over space and time, how does this variation influence key demographic parameters (cohort sex ratio and hatchling recruitment) in early life stages of populations exhibiting TSD? We leverage a 17-year data set on a population of painted turtles, Chrysemys picta, to investigate how spatial variation in nest vegetation cover and temporal variation in climate influence early life-history demography. We found that spatial variation in nest cover strongly influenced nest temperature and sex ratio, but was not correlated with clutch size, nest predation, total nest failure, or hatching success. Temporal variation in climate influenced percentage of total nest failure and cohort sex ratio, but not depredation rate, mean clutch size, or mean hatching success. Total hatchling recruitment in a year was influenced primarily by temporal variation in climate-independent factors, number of nests constructed, and depredation rate. Recruitment of female hatchlings was determined by stochastic variation in nest depredation and annual climate and also by the total nest production. Overall population demography depends more strongly on annual variation in climate and predation than it does on the intricacies of nest-specific biology. Finally, we demonstrate that recruitment of female hatchlings translates into recruitment of breeding females into the population, thus linking climate (and other) effects on early life stages to adult demographics.

Mitochondrial Mutation Rate, Spectrum and Heteroplasmy in Caenorhabditis elegans Spontaneous Mutation Accumulation Lines of Differing Population Size.

PubMed

Konrad, Anke; Thompson, Owen; Waterston, Robert H; Moerman, Donald G; Keightley, Peter D; Bergthorsson, Ulfar; Katju, Vaishali

2017-06-01

Mitochondrial genomes of metazoans, given their elevated rates of evolution, have served as pivotal markers for phylogeographic studies and recent phylogenetic events. In order to determine the dynamics of spontaneous mitochondrial mutations in small populations in the absence and presence of selection, we evolved mutation accumulation (MA) lines of Caenorhabditis elegans in parallel over 409 consecutive generations at three varying population sizes of N = 1, 10, and 100 hermaphrodites. The N =1 populations should have a minimal influence of natural selection to provide the spontaneous mutation rate and the expected rate of neutral evolution, whereas larger population sizes should experience increasing intensity of selection. New mutations were identified by Illumina paired-end sequencing of 86 mtDNA genomes across 35 experimental lines and compared with published genomes of natural isolates. The spontaneous mitochondrial mutation rate was estimated at 1.05 × 10-7/site/generation. A strong G/C→A/T mutational bias was observed in both the MA lines and the natural isolates. This suggests that the low G + C content at synonymous sites is the product of mutation bias rather than selection as previously proposed. The mitochondrial effective population size per worm generation was estimated to be 62. Although it was previously concluded that heteroplasmy was rare in C. elegans, the vast majority of mutations in this study were heteroplasmic despite an experimental regime exceeding 400 generations. The frequencies of frameshift and nonsynonymous mutations were negatively correlated with population size, which suggests their deleterious effects on fitness and a potent role for selection in their eradication. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Living in isolation - population structure, reproduction, and genetic variation of the endangered plant species Dianthus gratianopolitanus (Cheddar pink).

PubMed

Putz, Christina M; Schmid, Christoph; Reisch, Christoph

2015-09-01

The endangered plant species Dianthus gratianopolitanus exhibits a highly fragmented distribution range comprising many isolated populations. Based upon this pattern of distribution, we selected a study region in Switzerland with a lower magnitude of isolation (Swiss Jura) and another study region in Germany with a higher degree of isolation (Franconian Jura). In each region, we chose ten populations to analyze population structure, reproduction, and genetic variation in a comparative approach. Therefore, we determined population density, cushion size, and cushion density to analyze population structure, investigated reproductive traits, including number of flowers, capsules, and germination rate, and analyzed amplified fragment length polymorphisms to study genetic variation. Population and cushion density were credibly higher in German than in Swiss populations, whereas reproductive traits and genetic variation within populations were similar in both study regions. However, genetic variation among populations and isolation by distance were stronger in Germany than in Switzerland. Generally, cushion size and density as well as flower and capsule production increased with population size and density, whereas genetic variation decreased with population density. In contrast to our assumptions, we observed denser populations and cushions in the region with the higher magnitude of isolation, whereas reproductive traits and genetic variation within populations were comparable in both regions. This corroborates the assumption that stronger isolation must not necessarily result in the loss of fitness and genetic variation. Furthermore, it supports our conclusion that the protection of strongly isolated populations contributes essentially to the conservation of a species' full evolutionary potential.

Heritability of Wing Size and Shape of the Rice and Corn Strains of Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae).

PubMed

Cañas-Hoyos, N; Márquez, E J; Saldamando-Benjumea, C I

2016-08-01

Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) represents a pest of economic importance in all Western Hemisphere. This polyphagous species has diverged into two populations that have been mainly recognized with various mitochondrial and nuclear molecular markers and named "the rice" and "the corn" strains. In Colombia, both strains have evolved prezygotic and postzygotic isolation. They differ in tolerance to Bacillus thuringiensis (Cry1Ac and Cry1Ab endotoxins) and the insecticides lambda-cyhalothrin and methomyl. In 2014, a wing morphometric analysis made in 159 individuals from a colony showed that both strains significantly differ in wing shape. The species also exhibits sexual dimorphism in the rice strain as in females wing size is larger than in males. Here, we continued this work with another wing morphometric approach in laboratory-reared strains to calculate wing size and shape heritabilities using a full-sib design and in wild populations to determine if this method distinguishes these strains. Our results show that male heritabilities of both traits were higher than female ones. Wild populations were significantly different in wing shape and size. These results suggest that wing morphometrics can be used as an alternative method to molecular markers to differentiate adults from laboratory-reared populations and wild populations of this pest, particularly in males of this species. Finally, Q ST values obtained for wing size and shape further demonstrated that both strains are genetically differentiated in nature.

Energetic constraints, size gradients, and size limits in benthic marine invertebrates.

PubMed

Sebens, Kenneth P

2002-08-01

Populations of marine benthic organisms occupy habitats with a range of physical and biological characteristics. In the intertidal zone, energetic costs increase with temperature and aerial exposure, and prey intake increases with immersion time, generating size gradients with small individuals often found at upper limits of distribution. Wave action can have similar effects, limiting feeding time or success, although certain species benefit from wave dislodgment of their prey; this also results in gradients of size and morphology. The difference between energy intake and metabolic (and/or behavioral) costs can be used to determine an energetic optimal size for individuals in such populations. Comparisons of the energetic optimal size to the maximum predicted size based on mechanical constraints, and the ensuing mortality schedule, provides a mechanism to study and explain organism size gradients in intertidal and subtidal habitats. For species where the energetic optimal size is well below the maximum size that could persist under a certain set of wave/flow conditions, it is probable that energetic constraints dominate. When the opposite is true, populations of small individuals can dominate habitats with strong dislodgment or damage probability. When the maximum size of individuals is far below either energetic optima or mechanical limits, other sources of mortality (e.g., predation) may favor energy allocation to early reproduction rather than to continued growth. Predictions based on optimal size models have been tested for a variety of intertidal and subtidal invertebrates including sea anemones, corals, and octocorals. This paper provides a review of the optimal size concept, and employs a combination of the optimal energetic size model and life history modeling approach to explore energy allocation to growth or reproduction as the optimal size is approached.

Bivariate mass-size relation as a function of morphology as determined by Galaxy Zoo 2 crowdsourced visual classifications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, Melanie; Scarlata, Claudia; Fortson, Lucy; Willett, Kyle; Galloway, Melanie

2016-01-01

It is well known that the mass-size distribution evolves as a function of cosmic time and that this evolution is different between passive and star-forming galaxy populations. However, the devil is in the details and the precise evolution is still a matter of debate since this requires careful comparison between similar galaxy populations over cosmic time while simultaneously taking into account changes in image resolution, rest-frame wavelength, and surface brightness dimming in addition to properly selecting representative morphological samples.Here we present the first step in an ambitious undertaking to calculate the bivariate mass-size distribution as a function of time and morphology. We begin with a large sample (~3 x 105) of SDSS galaxies at z ~ 0.1. Morphologies for this sample have been determined by Galaxy Zoo crowdsourced visual classifications and we split the sample not only by disk- and bulge-dominated galaxies but also in finer morphology bins such as bulge strength. Bivariate distribution functions are the only way to properly account for biases and selection effects. In particular, we quantify the mass-size distribution with a version of the parametric Maximum Likelihood estimator which has been modified to account for measurement errors as well as upper limits on galaxy sizes.

Impact of aortic root size on left ventricular afterload and stroke volume.

PubMed

Sahlén, Anders; Hamid, Nadira; Amanullah, Mohammed Rizwan; Fam, Jiang Ming; Yeo, Khung Keong; Lau, Yee How; Lam, Carolyn S P; Ding, Zee Pin

2016-07-01

The left ventricle (LV) ejects blood into the proximal aorta. Age and hypertension are associated with stiffening and dilation of the aortic root, typically viewed as indicative of adverse remodeling. Based on analytical considerations, we hypothesized that a larger aortic root should be associated with lower global afterload (effective arterial elastance, EA) and larger stroke volume (SV). Moreover, as antihypertensive drugs differ in their effect on central blood pressure, we examined the role of antihypertensive drugs for the relation between aortic root size and afterload. We studied a large group of patients (n = 1250; 61 ± 12 years; 78 % males; 64 % hypertensives) from a single-center registry with known or suspected coronary artery disease. Aortic root size was measured by echocardiography as the diameter of the tubular portion of the ascending aorta. LV outflow tract Doppler was used to record SV. In the population as a whole, after adjusting for key covariates in separate regression models, aortic root size was an independent determinant of both SV and EA. This association was found to be heterogeneous and stronger in patients taking a calcium channel blocker (CCB; 10.6 % of entire population; aortic root size accounted for 8 % of the explained variance of EA). Larger aortic root size is an independent determinant of EA and SV. This association was heterogeneous and stronger in patients on CCB therapy.

A statistical approach to estimate the 3D size distribution of spheres from 2D size distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kong, M.; Bhattacharya, R.N.; James, C.; Basu, A.

2005-01-01

Size distribution of rigidly embedded spheres in a groundmass is usually determined from measurements of the radii of the two-dimensional (2D) circular cross sections of the spheres in random flat planes of a sample, such as in thin sections or polished slabs. Several methods have been devised to find a simple factor to convert the mean of such 2D size distributions to the actual 3D mean size of the spheres without a consensus. We derive an entirely theoretical solution based on well-established probability laws and not constrained by limitations of absolute size, which indicates that the ratio of the means of measured 2D and estimated 3D grain size distribution should be r/4 (=.785). Actual 2D size distribution of the radii of submicron sized, pure Fe0 globules in lunar agglutinitic glass, determined from backscattered electron images, is tested to fit the gamma size distribution model better than the log-normal model. Numerical analysis of 2D size distributions of Fe0 globules in 9 lunar soils shows that the average mean of 2D/3D ratio is 0.84, which is very close to the theoretical value. These results converge with the ratio 0.8 that Hughes (1978) determined for millimeter-sized chondrules from empirical measurements. We recommend that a factor of 1.273 (reciprocal of 0.785) be used to convert the determined 2D mean size (radius or diameter) of a population of spheres to estimate their actual 3D size. ?? 2005 Geological Society of America.

Are heritability and selection related to population size in nature? Meta-analysis and conservation implications.

PubMed

Wood, Jacquelyn L A; Yates, Matthew C; Fraser, Dylan J

2016-06-01

It is widely thought that small populations should have less additive genetic variance and respond less efficiently to natural selection than large populations. Across taxa, we meta-analytically quantified the relationship between adult census population size (N) and additive genetic variance (proxy: h (2)) and found no reduction in h (2) with decreasing N; surveyed populations ranged from four to one million individuals (1735 h (2) estimates, 146 populations, 83 species). In terms of adaptation, ecological conditions may systematically differ between populations of varying N; the magnitude of selection these populations experience may therefore also differ. We thus also meta-analytically tested whether selection changes with N and found little evidence for systematic differences in the strength, direction or form of selection with N across different trait types and taxa (7344 selection estimates, 172 populations, 80 species). Collectively, our results (i) indirectly suggest that genetic drift neither overwhelms selection more in small than in large natural populations, nor weakens adaptive potential/h (2) in small populations, and (ii) imply that natural populations of varying sizes experience a variety of environmental conditions, without consistently differing habitat quality at small N. However, we caution that the data are currently insufficient to determine whether some small populations may retain adaptive potential definitively. Further study is required into (i) selection and genetic variation in completely isolated populations of known N, under-represented taxonomic groups, and nongeneralist species, (ii) adaptive potential using multidimensional approaches and (iii) the nature of selective pressures for specific traits.

Common polymorphic variation in the genetically diverse African insulin gene and its association with size at birth.

PubMed

Petry, Clive J; Rayco-Solon, Pura; Fulford, Anthony J C; Stead, John D H; Wingate, Dianne L; Ong, Ken K; Sirugo, Giorgio; Prentice, Andrew M; Dunger, David B

2009-09-01

The insulin variable number of tandem repeats (INS VNTR) has been variably associated with size at birth in non-African populations. Small size at birth is a major determinant of neonatal mortality, so the INS VNTR may influence survival. We tested the hypothesis, therefore, that genetic variation around the INS VNTR in a rural Gambian population, who experience seasonal variation in nutrition and subsequently birth weight, may be associated with foetal and early growth. Six polymorphisms flanking the INS VNTR were genotyped in over 2,500 people. Significant associations were detected between the maternally inherited SNP 27 (rs689) allele and birth length [effect size 17.5 (5.2-29.8) mm; P = 0.004; n = 361]. Significant associations were also found between the maternally inherited African-specific SNP 28 (rs5506) allele and post-natal weight gain [effect size 0.19 (0.05-0.32) z score points/year; P = 0.005; n = 728). These results suggest that in the Gambian population studied there are associations between polymorphic variation in the genetically diverse INS gene and foetal and early growth characteristics, which contribute to overall polygenic associations with these traits.

Pediatric Anthropometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klinich, Kathleen D.; Reed, Matthew P.

Anthropometry is the measurement of human size, shape, and physical capabilities. Most pediatric anthropometry data are gathered to describe child growth patterns, but data on body size, mass distribution, range of motion, and posture are used to develop crash test dummies and computational models of child occupants. Pediatric anthropometry data are also used to determine child restraint dimensions, so they will accommodate the applicable population of child occupants.

Tower counts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woody, Carol Ann; Johnson, D.H.; Shrier, Brianna M.; O'Neal, Jennifer S.; Knutzen, John A.; Augerot, Xanthippe; O'Neal, Thomas A.; Pearsons, Todd N.

2007-01-01

Counting towers provide an accurate, low-cost, low-maintenance, low-technology, and easily mobilized escapement estimation program compared to other methods (e.g., weirs, hydroacoustics, mark-recapture, and aerial surveys) (Thompson 1962; Siebel 1967; Cousens et al. 1982; Symons and Waldichuk 1984; Anderson 2000; Alaska Department of Fish and Game 2003). Counting tower data has been found to be consistent with that of digital video counts (Edwards 2005). Counting towers do not interfere with natural fish migration patterns, nor are fish handled or stressed; however, their use is generally limited to clear rivers that meet specific site selection criteria. The data provided by counting tower sampling allow fishery managers to determine reproductive population size, estimate total return (escapement + catch) and its uncertainty, evaluate population productivity and trends, set harvest rates, determine spawning escapement goals, and forecast future returns (Alaska Department of Fish and Game 1974-2000 and 1975-2004). The number of spawning fish is determined by subtracting subsistence, sport-caught fish, and prespawn mortality from the total estimated escapement. The methods outlined in this protocol for tower counts can be used to provide reasonable estimates ( plus or minus 6%-10%) of reproductive salmon population size and run timing in clear rivers. 

Estuarine sediment toxicity tests on diatoms: Sensitivity comparison for three species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreno-Garrido, Ignacio; Lubián, Luis M.; Jiménez, Begoña; Soares, Amadeu M. V. M.; Blasco, Julián

2007-01-01

Experimental populations of three marine and estuarine diatoms were exposed to sediments with different levels of pollutants, collected from the Aveiro Lagoon (NW of Portugal). The species selected were Cylindrotheca closterium, Phaeodactylum tricornutum and Navicula sp. Previous experiments were designed to determine the influence of the sediment particle size distribution on growth of the species assayed. Percentage of silt-sized sediment affect to growth of the selected species in the experimental conditions: the higher percentage of silt-sized sediment, the lower growth. In any case, percentages of silt-sized sediment less than 10% did not affect growth. In general, C. closterium seems to be slightly more sensitive to the selected sediments than the other two species. Two groups of sediment samples were determined as a function of the general response of the exposed microalgal populations: three of the six samples used were more toxic than the other three. Chemical analysis of the samples was carried out in order to determine the specific cause of differences in toxicity. After a statistical analysis, concentrations of Sn, Zn, Hg, Cu and Cr (among all physico-chemical analyzed parameters), in order of importance, were the most important factors that divided the two groups of samples (more and less toxic samples). Benthic diatoms seem to be sensitive organisms in sediment toxicity tests. Toxicity data from bioassays involving microphytobentos should be taken into account when environmental risks are calculated.

Interspecific and intraspecific variation in seed size and germination requirements of Sarracenia (Sarraceniaceae).

PubMed

Ellison, A M

2001-03-01

Seed size and germination requirements of eight (of nine) Sarracenia species, and 13 populations of S. purpurea were studied. All species except for S. purpurea are restricted to the southeastern United States, whereas S. purpurea ranges across Canada, southward along the eastern United States into Maryland and Virginia (S. purpurea ssp. purpurea), and from New Jersey southward into northern Florida and the coast of the Gulf of Mexico (S. purpurea ssp. venosa). I tested the hypotheses that dormancy-breaking requirements vary predictably among species across a latitudinal gradient. I also sought to determine whether seed size and germination requirements were useful characters for resolving systematic and phylogenetic questions within this genus. Seed size varied significantly among species, but variability in seed size within S. purpurea exceeded the variability in seed size observed across all eight species studied. Seeds of all species are morphophysiologically dormant upon dispersal. Length of required cool, moist pretreatment varied among species, and germination in higher latitude populations is enhanced with longer pretreatment. In contrast, variability in germination requirements of subspecies, varieties, and populations of the geographically wide-ranging S. purpurea was not related clearly to geographic location (latitude or elevation). Germination requirements do not map onto a proposed phylogeny of Sarracenia, but observed differences in germination requirements of S. purpurea ssp. venosa var. burkii relative to other populations of S. purpurea support the recent proposal to elevate this variety to species status.

Modeling the effect of surgical sterilization on owned dog population size in Villa de Tezontepec, Hidalgo, Mexico, using an individual-based computer simulation model

PubMed Central

Kisiel, Luz Maria; Jones-Bitton, Andria; Sargeant, Jan M.; Coe, Jason B.; Flockhart, D. T. Tyler; Canales Vargas, Erick J.

2018-01-01

Surgical sterilization programs for dogs have been proposed as interventions to control dog population size. Models can be used to help identify the long-term impact of reproduction control interventions for dogs. The objective of this study was to determine the projected impact of surgical sterilization interventions on the owned dog population size in Villa de Tezontepec, Hidalgo, Mexico. A stochastic, individual-based simulation model was constructed and parameterized using a combination of empirical data collected on the demographics of owned dogs in Villa de Tezontepec and data available from the peer-reviewed literature. Model outcomes were assessed using a 20-year time horizon. The model was used to examine: the effect of surgical sterilization strategies focused on: 1) dogs of any age and sex, 2) female dogs of any age, 3) young dogs (i.e., not yet reached sexual maturity) of any sex, and 4) young, female dogs. Model outcomes suggested that as surgical capacity increases from 21 to 84 surgeries/month, (8.6% to 34.5% annual sterilization) for dogs of any age, the mean dog population size after 20 years was reduced between 14% and 79% compared to the base case scenario (i.e. in the absence of intervention). Surgical sterilization interventions focused only on young dogs of any sex yielded greater reductions (81% - 90%) in the mean population size, depending on the level of surgical capacity. More focused sterilization targeted at female dogs of any age, resulted in reductions that were similar to focusing on mixed sex sterilization of only young dogs (82% - 92%). The greatest mean reduction in population size (90% - 91%) was associated with sterilization of only young, female dogs. Our model suggests that targeting sterilization to young females could enhance the efficacy of existing surgical dog population control interventions in this location, without investing extra resources. PMID:29856830

Nutritional determinants of worldwide diabetes: an econometric study of food markets and diabetes prevalence in 173 countries.

PubMed

Basu, Sanjay; Stuckler, David; McKee, Martin; Galea, Gauden

2013-01-01

Ageing and urbanization leading to sedentary lifestyles have been the major explanations proposed for a dramatic rise in diabetes worldwide and have been the variables used to predict future diabetes rates. However, a transition to Western diets has been suggested as an alternative driver. We sought to determine what socio-economic and dietary factors are the most significant population-level contributors to diabetes prevalence rates internationally. Multivariate regression models were used to study how market sizes of major food products (sugars, cereals, vegetable oils, meats, total joules) corresponded to diabetes prevalence, incorporating lagged and cumulative effects. The underlying social determinants of food market sizes and diabetes prevalence rates were also studied, including ageing, income, urbanization, overweight prevalence and imports of foodstuffs. Data were obtained from 173 countries. Population-based survey recipients were the basis for diabetes prevalence and food market data. We found that increased income tends to increase overall food market size among low- and middle-income countries, but the level of food importation significantly shifts the content of markets such that a greater proportion of available joules is composed of sugar and related sweeteners. Sugar exposure statistically explained why urbanization and income have been correlated with diabetes rates. Current diabetes projection methods may estimate future diabetes rates poorly if they fail to incorporate the impact of nutritional factors. Imported sugars deserve further investigation as a potential population-level driver of global diabetes.

When bigger is not better: intraspecific competition for pollination increases with population size in invasive milkweeds.

PubMed

Ward, Megan; Johnson, Steven D; Zalucki, Myron P

2013-04-01

One of the essential requirements for an introduced plant species to become invasive is an ability to reproduce outside the native range, particularly when initial populations are small. If a reproductive Allee effect is operating, plants in small populations will have reduced reproductive success relative to plants in larger populations. Alternatively, if plants in small populations experience less competition for pollination than those in large populations, they may actually have higher levels of reproductive success than plants in large populations. To resolve this uncertainty, we investigated how the per capita fecundity of plants was affected by population size in three invasive milkweed species. Field surveys of seed production in natural populations of different sizes but similar densities were conducted for three pollinator-dependent invasive species, namely Asclepias curassavica, Gomphocarpus fruticosus and G. physocarpus. Additionally, supplemental hand-pollinations were performed in small and large populations in order to determine whether reproductive output was limited by pollinator activity in these populations. Reproductive Allee effects were not detected in any of the study species. Instead, plants in small populations exhibited remarkably high levels of reproductive output compared to those in large populations. Increased fruit production following supplemental hand-pollinations suggested that the lower reproductive output of naturally pollinated plants in large populations is a consequence of pollen limitation rather than limitation due to abiotic resources. This is consistent with increased intraspecific competition for pollination amongst plants in large populations. It is likely that the invasion of these milkweed species in Australia has been enhanced because plants in small founding populations experience less intraspecific competition for pollinators than those in large populations, and thus have the ability to produce copious amounts of seeds.

A preliminary assessment of mouflon abundance at the Kahuku Unit of Hawaii Volcanoes National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, Steven C.; Kawakami, Ben; Okita, David; Medeiros, Keola

2006-01-01

Hawaii Volcanoes National Park (HAVO) recently acquired the 115,653 acre Kahuku Ranch unit adjacent to the existing Mauna Loa section of HAVO. Kahuku contains numerous exceptional natural resources including many federally listed threatened and endangered species. An apparently large and growing population of alien mouflon sheep (Ovis gmelini musimon), however, threatens sensitive native plants and forest bird habitats. Population composition and abundance estimates were urgently needed to determine the magnitude of resources required to manage this species and justify costs. We surveyed 32,433 acres from helicopter over 2 days in November 2004 during breeding to determine the abundance and population structure. We estimated that there were more than 2,586 ? 705 (90% CI) mouflon at Kahuku. Overall, group sizes averaged 7.8 and the sex ratio was 1:2.4 rams:ewes, but approximately 44% of the population was concentrated in forested areas near ranching operations where group sizes averaged >15 and the sex ratio was 1:3.9 rams:ewes. The remaining 56% of the population occurred widely dispersed in subalpine shrubland and barren lava flows. Abundance estimates are likely to be conservative because they were not adjusted for detection probability. Ground-based surveys of lambs suggest upper biological limit to annual population increase of 33.1% under existing environmental conditions. Historical information used to calculate population trends indicated the apparent rate of population increase to be 21.1%. In the absence of removals, the population increment for 2004-2005, would be more than 546-856, and the population doubling time with these growth rates is 3-4 years.

Body Size Evolution in Insular Speckled Rattlesnakes (Viperidae: Crotalus mitchellii)

PubMed Central

Meik, Jesse M.; Lawing, A. Michelle; Pires-daSilva, André

2010-01-01

Background Speckled rattlesnakes (Crotalus mitchellii) inhabit multiple islands off the coast of Baja California, Mexico. Two of the 14 known insular populations have been recognized as subspecies based primarily on body size divergence from putative mainland ancestral populations; however, a survey of body size variation from other islands occupied by these snakes has not been previously reported. We examined body size variation between island and mainland speckled rattlesnakes, and the relationship between body size and various island physical variables among 12 island populations. We also examined relative head size among giant, dwarfed, and mainland speckled rattlesnakes to determine whether allometric differences conformed to predictions of gape size (and indirectly body size) evolving in response to shifts in prey size. Methodology/Principal Findings Insular speckled rattlesnakes show considerable variation in body size when compared to mainland source subspecies. In addition to previously known instances of gigantism on Ángel de la Guarda and dwarfism on El Muerto, various degrees of body size decrease have occurred frequently in this taxon, with dwarfed rattlesnakes occurring mostly on small, recently isolated, land-bridge islands. Regression models using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) showed that mean SVL of insular populations was most strongly correlated with island area, suggesting the influence of selection for different body size optima for islands of different size. Allometric differences in head size of giant and dwarf rattlesnakes revealed patterns consistent with shifts to larger and smaller prey, respectively. Conclusions/Significance Our data provide the first example of a clear relationship between body size and island area in a squamate reptile species; among vertebrates this pattern has been previously documented in few insular mammals. This finding suggests that selection for body size is influenced by changes in community dynamics that are related to graded differences in area over what are otherwise similar bioclimatic conditions. We hypothesize that in this system shifts to larger prey, episodic saturation and depression of primary prey density, and predator release may have led to insular gigantism, and that shifts to smaller prey and increased reproductive efficiency in the presence of intense intraspecific competition may have led to insular dwarfism. PMID:20209105

The size of an ethno-cultural community as a social determinant of health for Chinese seniors.

PubMed

Chau, Shirley; Lai, Daniel W L

2011-12-01

The present study investigated the link between the sizes of the Chinese community to the health of Chinese seniors in Canada. A secondary data analysis of survey data from a representative sample of 2,272 Chinese older adults aged 55 and over was conducted. Hierarchical regression analyses were performed to assess the effects of the size of Chinese communities in Chinese seniors' health. Chinese seniors residing in the community with a small Chinese population reported better physical and mental health than the Chinese seniors residing in communities with a larger Chinese population. The findings were contrary to expectations that health of Chinese seniors should be higher in cities with large Chinese communities. These findings raise new questions for future investigations into the dynamics and impact of ethnic community size, and the importance of studying intragroup differences within ethno-cultural groups to better understand health disparities in ethnic groups.

The Observational and Theoretical Tidal Radii of Globular Clusters in M87

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, Jeremy J.; Sills, Alison; Harris, William E.

2012-02-01

Globular clusters have linear sizes (tidal radii) which theory tells us are determined by their masses and by the gravitational potential of their host galaxy. To explore the relationship between observed and expected radii, we utilize the globular cluster population of the Virgo giant M87. Unusually deep, high signal-to-noise images of M87 are used to measure the effective and limiting radii of approximately 2000 globular clusters. To compare with these observations, we simulate a globular cluster population that has the same characteristics as the observed M87 cluster population. Placing these simulated clusters in the well-studied tidal field of M87, the orbit of each cluster is solved and the theoretical tidal radius of each cluster is determined. We compare the predicted relationship between cluster size and projected galactocentric distance to observations. We find that for an isotropic distribution of cluster velocities, theoretical tidal radii are approximately equal to observed limiting radii for R gc < 10 kpc. However, the isotropic simulation predicts a steep increase in cluster size at larger radii, which is not observed in large galaxies beyond the Milky Way. To minimize the discrepancy between theory and observations, we explore the effects of orbital anisotropy on cluster sizes, and suggest a possible orbital anisotropy profile for M87 which yields a better match between theory and observations. Finally, we suggest future studies which will establish a stronger link between theoretical tidal radii and observed radii.

[Modelling of selection acting upon the pleioptropic locus in an asynchronous population].

PubMed

Zhdanov, O L; Frisman, E Ia

2014-08-01

We created and examined a mathematical model describing the size and genetic composition dynamics in a population with two age classes, where the survival of both zygotes and adult individuals is determined by one pleioptropic locus. Even under present limitations, as the outside effects of a complex multigenic system are reduced to the case of single locus, our model demonstrates a wide range of different evolutionary scenarios for possible changes in the population dynamics. An increase in the reproductive potential and survival is accompanied by a transition from stable to oscillating population numbers. However, the evolutionary growth of these parameters may be nonmonotonic and may fluctuate significantly. In the case of antagonistic pleioptropy, an increase in one of these parameters usually leads to a predictable decrease in the other. This, in turn, may even stabilize the numbers and genetic compositions of the age groups. We demonstrated that selection acting on later stages of the life cycle is accompanied by destabilization of the Hardy-Weinberg equilibriums that link allele and genotype frequencies. We obtained a balance ratio, which allowed us to compare the combined fitness of the genotypes and to demonstrate that selection leads to the exclusion of the least adapted genotypes. Initial conditionsmay in some cases determine the genetic composition and pattern of population size dynamics.

A general diagram for estimating pore size of ultrafiltration and reverse osmosis membranes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sarbolouki, M. N.

1982-01-01

A slit sieve model has been used to develop a general correlation between the average pore size of the upstream surface of a membrane and the molecular weight of the solute which it retains by better than 80%. The pore size is determined by means of the correlation using the high retention data from an ultrafiltration (UF) or a reverse osmosis (RO) experiment. The pore population density can also be calculated from the flux data via appropriate equations.

Krill population dynamics in the Scotia Sea: variability in growth and mortality within a single population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reid, K.; Murphy, E. J.; Loeb, V.; Hewitt, R. P.

2002-07-01

Understanding the demographics of Antarctic krill over large scales may be complicated by regional differences in the processes that govern population structure. The influence of regional differences in growth and mortality on population size structure was examined using data on the length-frequency distribution of krill in the Scotia Sea using samples from the South Shetland Islands and South Georgia collected annually from 1991 to 2000. A correction function, which took account of the higher growth rate at South Georgia, produced a consistent similarity in the position of the modal size classes that was not present in the raw data. Optimising the mortality rate, to minimise the differences in the growth corrected length-frequency distribution, suggested a higher mortality rate at South Georgia that the South Shetlands. The intra-specific variations in growth and mortality rates are consistent with published values and with other Euphausiids species. Having accounted for the demographic plasticity, it is apparent that strong recruitment of the smallest size class of krill is represented in both populations simultaneously. It appears that first-year krill are advected into different regions of the Scotia Sea where the resultant population size structure is determined by regional differences in growth and mortality. The majority of the commercial harvest of krill in the Antarctic occurs in a relatively small number of regional fisheries within the Scotia Sea and is managed using population models based on a single set of demographic parameters. Where substantial differences in these parameters exist between fishing areas, the calculation of catch limits should take these differences into account.

Ranked set sampling: cost and optimal set size.

PubMed

Nahhas, Ramzi W; Wolfe, Douglas A; Chen, Haiying

2002-12-01

McIntyre (1952, Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 3, 385-390) introduced ranked set sampling (RSS) as a method for improving estimation of a population mean in settings where sampling and ranking of units from the population are inexpensive when compared with actual measurement of the units. Two of the major factors in the usefulness of RSS are the set size and the relative costs of the various operations of sampling, ranking, and measurement. In this article, we consider ranking error models and cost models that enable us to assess the effect of different cost structures on the optimal set size for RSS. For reasonable cost structures, we find that the optimal RSS set sizes are generally larger than had been anticipated previously. These results will provide a useful tool for determining whether RSS is likely to lead to an improvement over simple random sampling in a given setting and, if so, what RSS set size is best to use in this case.

Distribution and diversity of cytotypes in Dianthus broteri as evidenced by genome size variations.

PubMed

Balao, Francisco; Casimiro-Soriguer, Ramón; Talavera, María; Herrera, Javier; Talavera, Salvador

2009-10-01

Studying the spatial distribution of cytotypes and genome size in plants can provide valuable information about the evolution of polyploid complexes. Here, the spatial distribution of cytological races and the amount of DNA in Dianthus broteri, an Iberian carnation with several ploidy levels, is investigated. Sample chromosome counts and flow cytometry (using propidium iodide) were used to determine overall genome size (2C value) and ploidy level in 244 individuals of 25 populations. Both fresh and dried samples were investigated. Differences in 2C and 1Cx values among ploidy levels within biogeographical provinces were tested using ANOVA. Geographical correlations of genome size were also explored. Extensive variation in chromosomes numbers (2n = 2x = 30, 2n = 4x = 60, 2n = 6x = 90 and 2n = 12x =180) was detected, and the dodecaploid cytotype is reported for the first time in this genus. As regards cytotype distribution, six populations were diploid, 11 were tetraploid, three were hexaploid and five were dodecaploid. Except for one diploid population containing some triploid plants (2n = 45), the remaining populations showed a single cytotype. Diploids appeared in two disjunct areas (south-east and south-west), and so did tetraploids (although with a considerably wider geographic range). Dehydrated leaf samples provided reliable measurements of DNA content. Genome size varied significantly among some cytotypes, and also extensively within diploid (up to 1.17-fold) and tetraploid (1.22-fold) populations. Nevertheless, variations were not straightforwardly congruent with ecology and geographical distribution. Dianthus broteri shows the highest diversity of cytotypes known to date in the genus Dianthus. Moreover, some cytotypes present remarkable internal genome size variation. The evolution of the complex is discussed in terms of autopolyploidy, with primary and secondary contact zones.

Gene flow analysis method, the D-statistic, is robust in a wide parameter space.

PubMed

Zheng, Yichen; Janke, Axel

2018-01-08

We evaluated the sensitivity of the D-statistic, a parsimony-like method widely used to detect gene flow between closely related species. This method has been applied to a variety of taxa with a wide range of divergence times. However, its parameter space and thus its applicability to a wide taxonomic range has not been systematically studied. Divergence time, population size, time of gene flow, distance of outgroup and number of loci were examined in a sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity study shows that the primary determinant of the D-statistic is the relative population size, i.e. the population size scaled by the number of generations since divergence. This is consistent with the fact that the main confounding factor in gene flow detection is incomplete lineage sorting by diluting the signal. The sensitivity of the D-statistic is also affected by the direction of gene flow, size and number of loci. In addition, we examined the ability of the f-statistics, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], to estimate the fraction of a genome affected by gene flow; while these statistics are difficult to implement to practical questions in biology due to lack of knowledge of when the gene flow happened, they can be used to compare datasets with identical or similar demographic background. The D-statistic, as a method to detect gene flow, is robust against a wide range of genetic distances (divergence times) but it is sensitive to population size. The D-statistic should only be applied with critical reservation to taxa where population sizes are large relative to branch lengths in generations.

Origin of Outer Solar System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holman, Matthew J.; Lindstrom, David (Technical Monitor)

2005-01-01

Our ongoing research program combines extensive deep and wide-field observations using a variety of observational platforms with numerical studies of the dynamics of small bodies in the outer solar system in order to advance the main scientific goals of the community studying the Kuiper belt and the outer solar system. These include: (1) determining the relative populations of the known classes of KBOs as well as other possible classes; ( 2 ) determining the size distributions or luminosity function of the individual populations or the Kuiper belt as a whole; (3) determining the inclinations distributions of these populations; (4) establishing the radial extent of the Kuiper belt; ( 5 ) measuring and relating the physical properties of different types of KBOs to those of other solar system bodies; and, (6) completing our systematic inventory of the satellites of the outer planets.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Terai, Tsuyoshi; Takahashi, Jun; Itoh, Yoichi, E-mail: tsuyoshi.terai@nao.ac.jp

Main-belt asteroids have been continuously colliding with one another since they were formed. Their size distribution is primarily determined by the size dependence of asteroid strength against catastrophic impacts. The strength scaling law as a function of body size could depend on collision velocity, but the relationship remains unknown, especially under hypervelocity collisions comparable to 10 km s{sup –1}. We present a wide-field imaging survey at an ecliptic latitude of about 25° for investigating the size distribution of small main-belt asteroids that have highly inclined orbits. The analysis technique allowing for efficient asteroid detections and high-accuracy photometric measurements provides sufficientmore » sample data to estimate the size distribution of sub-kilometer asteroids with inclinations larger than 14°. The best-fit power-law slopes of the cumulative size distribution are 1.25 ± 0.03 in the diameter range of 0.6-1.0 km and 1.84 ± 0.27 in 1.0-3.0 km. We provide a simple size distribution model that takes into consideration the oscillations of the power-law slope due to the transition from the gravity-scaled regime to the strength-scaled regime. We find that the high-inclination population has a shallow slope of the primary components of the size distribution compared to the low-inclination populations. The asteroid population exposed to hypervelocity impacts undergoes collisional processes where large bodies have a higher disruptive strength and longer lifespan relative to tiny bodies than the ecliptic asteroids.« less

Comparative adoption of cone beam computed tomography and panoramic radiography machines across Australia.

PubMed

Zhang, A; Critchley, S; Monsour, P A

2016-12-01

The aim of the present study was to assess the current adoption of cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) and panoramic radiography (PR) machines across Australia. Information regarding registered CBCT and PR machines was obtained from radiation regulators across Australia. The number of X-ray machines was correlated with the population size, the number of dentists, and the gross state product (GSP) per capita, to determine the best fitting regression model(s). In 2014, there were 232 CBCT and 1681 PR machines registered in Australia. Based on absolute counts, Queensland had the largest number of CBCT and PR machines whereas the Northern Territory had the smallest number. However, when based on accessibility in terms of the population size and the number of dentists, the Australian Capital Territory had the most CBCT machines and Western Australia had the most PR machines. The number of X-ray machines correlated strongly with both the population size and the number of dentists, but not with the GSP per capita. In 2014, the ratio of PR to CBCT machines was approximately 7:1. Projected increases in either the population size or the number of dentists could positively impact on the adoption of PR and CBCT machines in Australia. © 2016 Australian Dental Association.

Group selection on population size affects life-history patterns in the entomopathogenic nematode Steinernema carpocapsae.

PubMed

Bashey, Farrah; Lively, Curtis M

2009-05-01

Selection is recognized to operate on multiple levels. In disease organisms, selection among hosts is thought to provide an important counterbalance to selection for faster growth within hosts. We performed three experiments, each selecting for a divergence in group size in the entomopathogenic nematode, Steinernema carpocapsae. These nematodes infect and kill insect larvae, reproduce inside the host carcass, and emerge as infective juveniles. We imposed selection on group size by selecting among hosts for either high or low numbers of emerging nematodes. Our goal was to determine whether this trait could respond to selection at the group level, and if so, to examine what other traits would evolve as correlated responses. One of the three experiments showed a significant response to group selection. In that experiment, the high-selected treatment consistently produced more emerging nematodes per host than the low-selected treatment. In addition, nematodes were larger and they emerged later from hosts in the low-selected lines. Despite small effective population sizes, the effects of inbreeding were small in this experiment. Thus, selection among hosts can be effective, leading to both a direct evolutionary response at the population level, as well as to correlated responses in populational and individual traits.

Transgender Population Size in the United States: a Meta-Regression of Population-Based Probability Samples

PubMed Central

Sevelius, Jae M.

2017-01-01

Background. Transgender individuals have a gender identity that differs from the sex they were assigned at birth. The population size of transgender individuals in the United States is not well-known, in part because official records, including the US Census, do not include data on gender identity. Population surveys today more often collect transgender-inclusive gender-identity data, and secular trends in culture and the media have created a somewhat more favorable environment for transgender people. Objectives. To estimate the current population size of transgender individuals in the United States and evaluate any trend over time. Search methods. In June and July 2016, we searched PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, and Web of Science for national surveys, as well as “gray” literature, through an Internet search. We limited the search to 2006 through 2016. Selection criteria. We selected population-based surveys that used probability sampling and included self-reported transgender-identity data. Data collection and analysis. We used random-effects meta-analysis to pool eligible surveys and used meta-regression to address our hypothesis that the transgender population size estimate would increase over time. We used subsample and leave-one-out analysis to assess for bias. Main results. Our meta-regression model, based on 12 surveys covering 2007 to 2015, explained 62.5% of model heterogeneity, with a significant effect for each unit increase in survey year (F = 17.122; df = 1,10; b = 0.026%; P = .002). Extrapolating these results to 2016 suggested a current US population size of 390 adults per 100 000, or almost 1 million adults nationally. This estimate may be more indicative for younger adults, who represented more than 50% of the respondents in our analysis. Authors’ conclusions. Future national surveys are likely to observe higher numbers of transgender people. The large variety in questions used to ask about transgender identity may account for residual heterogeneity in our models. Public health implications. Under- or nonrepresentation of transgender individuals in population surveys is a barrier to understanding social determinants and health disparities faced by this population. We recommend using standardized questions to identify respondents with transgender and nonbinary gender identities, which will allow a more accurate population size estimate. PMID:28075632

The Role of Dog Population Management in Rabies Elimination—A Review of Current Approaches and Future Opportunities

PubMed Central

Taylor, Louise H.; Wallace, Ryan M.; Balaram, Deepashree; Lindenmayer, Joann M.; Eckery, Douglas C.; Mutonono-Watkiss, Beryl; Parravani, Ellie; Nel, Louis H.

2017-01-01

Free-roaming dogs and rabies transmission are integrally linked across many low-income countries, and large unmanaged dog populations can be daunting to rabies control program planners. Dog population management (DPM) is a multifaceted concept that aims to improve the health and well-being of free-roaming dogs, reduce problems they may cause, and may also aim to reduce dog population size. In theory, DPM can facilitate more effective rabies control. Community engagement focused on promoting responsible dog ownership and better veterinary care could improve the health of individual animals and dog vaccination coverage, thus reducing rabies transmission. Humane DPM tools, such as sterilization, could theoretically reduce dog population turnover and size, allowing rabies vaccination coverage to be maintained more easily. However, it is important to understand local dog populations and community attitudes toward them in order to determine whether and how DPM might contribute to rabies control and which DPM tools would be most successful. In practice, there is very limited evidence of DPM tools achieving reductions in the size or turnover of dog populations in canine rabies-endemic areas. Different DPM tools are frequently used together and combined with rabies vaccinations, but full impact assessments of DPM programs are not usually available, and therefore, evaluation of tools is difficult. Surgical sterilization is the most frequently documented tool and has successfully reduced dog population size and turnover in a few low-income settings. However, DPM programs are mostly conducted in urban settings and are usually not government funded, raising concerns about their applicability in rural settings and sustainability over time. Technical demands, costs, and the time necessary to achieve population-level impacts are major barriers. Given their potential value, we urgently need more evidence of the effectiveness of DPM tools in the context of canine rabies control. Cheaper, less labor-intensive tools for dog sterilization will be extremely valuable in realizing the potential benefits of reduced population turnover and size. No one DPM tool will fit all situations, but if DPM objectives are achieved dog populations may be stabilized or even reduced, facilitating higher dog vaccination coverages that will benefit rabies elimination efforts. PMID:28740850

Adding exercise to rosuvastatin treatment: influence on C-reactive protein, monocyte toll-like receptor 4 expression, and inflammatory monocyte (CD14+CD16+) population.

PubMed

Coen, Paul M; Flynn, Michael G; Markofski, Melissa M; Pence, Brandt D; Hannemann, Robert E

2010-12-01

Statin treatment and exercise training can reduce markers of inflammation when administered separately. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of rosuvastatin treatment and the addition of exercise training on circulating markers of inflammation including C-reactive protein (CRP), monocyte toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) expression, and CD14+CD16+ monocyte population size. Thirty-three hypercholesterolemic and physically inactive subjects were randomly assigned to rosuvastatin (R) or rosuvastatin/exercise (RE) groups. A third group of physically active hypercholesterolemic subjects served as a control (AC). The R and RE groups received rosuvastatin treatment (10 mg/d) for 20 weeks. From week 10 to week 20, the RE group also participated in an exercise training program (3d/wk). Measurements were made at baseline (Pre), week 10 (Mid), and week 20 (Post), and included TLR4 expression on CD14+ monocytes and CD14+CD16+ monocyte population size as determined by 3-color flow cytometry. Serum CRP was quantified by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. TLR4 expression on CD14+ monocytes was higher in the R group at week 20. When treatment groups (R and RE) were combined, serum CRP was lower across time. Furthermore, serum CRP and inflammatory monocyte population size were lower in the RE group compared with the R group at the Post time point. When all groups (R, RE, and AC) were combined, TLR4 expression was greater on inflammatory monocytes (CD14+CD16+) compared with classic monocytes (CD14+CD16⁻) at all time points. In conclusion, rosuvastatin may influence monocyte inflammatory response by increasing TLR4 expression on circulating monocytes. The addition of exercise training to rosuvastatin treatment further lowered CRP and reduced the size of the inflammatory monocyte population, suggesting an additive anti-inflammatory effect of exercise. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Variation in egg size of the northern pintail

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.; Grand, James B.

1996-01-01

Egg size is an important determinant of reproductive investment by birds. For many species, total investment in a clutch is limited by the size of stored reserves (Ankney and MacInnes 1978, Esler and Grand 1994a). Egg size determines the unit by which these stored reserves are partitioned. Individual females in most species of waterfowl show a high repeatability for egg size, implying that individual either cannot, or do not, alter their egg size in response to varying environmental conditions (batt and Prince 1979, Duncan 1987, Laurila and Hario 1988, Lessells et al 1989, Flint and Sedinger 1992). Thus differences in egg size appear to represent different reproductive strategies among individuals.Fitness can be measured by the number of offspring an individual contributes to a population. Egg size may be related to fitness in some species fo waterfowl as young from larger eggs are better able to survive extreme conditions (Ankney 1980, Thomas and Brown 1988). Birds laying larger clutches are almost always more fit as they fledge more young (Lessells 1986, Rockwell et al 1987, Flint 1993). These fitness patterns create the potential for a trade-off between clutch size and egg size where females laying large clutches of small eggs have the same fitness as females laying smaller clutches of large eggs. The fact that Northern Pintails (Anas acuta) utilize stored reserves (Mann and Sedinger 1993, esler and Grand 1994a) and have a high repeatability for egg size (i.e. egg size is fixed) (Duncan 1987), makes them candidates to engage in clutch size=egg size trade-offs (Rowher 1988, Rowher and Eisenhauer 1989). An inverse relationship between egg size and clutch size would be indicative of a phenotypic trade-off among these fitness components. Our goal in this study was to describe egg size variation in Northern Pintails (hereafter pintails) with regard to female age, body size, clutch size, year, initiation date, and nesting attempt. We compare our results to those from other populations of nesting pintails and discuss whether phenotypic clutch size-egg size tradeoffs exist for pintails.

Leptin is associated with the size of the apolipoprotein(a) particle in African tribal populations living on fish or vegetarian diet.

PubMed

Winnicki, Mikolaj; Puato, Massimo; Somers, Virend K; Zambon, Alberto; Marcovina, Santica M; Rattazzi, Marcello; Phillips, Bradley G; Pauletto, Paolo

2010-07-01

Apolipoprotein(a) [or apo(a)] isoform size, which is strongly genetically determined, showed significant association with the cardiovascular risk. Subjects on a fish diet have lower lipoprotein(a) levels, larger apo(a) isoform sizes and lower leptin levels than their vegetarian diet counterparts. We hypothesized that leptin may contribute to a potential association between the type of diet and the size of apo(a) isoforms. Anthropometric data, dietary nutrients, lipoprotein profile, plasma leptin levels, and apo(a) isoforms were evaluated in two related homogenous African tribal populations of Tanzania, one on a primarily freshwater fish diet (n=278), and the other on a vegetarian diet (n=326). We observed a strong negative association between leptin levels and size of each of the apo(a) isoforms in both fish and vegetable diet groups, and in both genders. However, leptin was not associated with levels of lipoprotein(a). In multivariate analysis, a strong and independent association between leptin and size of apo(a) isoforms was observed. The size of apo(a) isoforms was strongly associated with high and low leptin states. Subjects with low leptins had 30% larger sizes of apo(a) isoforms than their high leptin counterparts. High leptin subjects have smaller, potentially more atherogenic, apo(a) isoform sizes than low leptin ones. We suggest that omega-3 rich diet can influence the levels of apo(a) and/or Lp(a) even though they are mainly genetically determined. These findings may have implications for understanding the interaction between leptin and cardiovascular risk. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Food-web models predict species abundances in response to habitat change.

PubMed

Gotelli, Nicholas J; Ellison, Aaron M

2006-10-01

Plant and animal population sizes inevitably change following habitat loss, but the mechanisms underlying these changes are poorly understood. We experimentally altered habitat volume and eliminated top trophic levels of the food web of invertebrates that inhabit rain-filled leaves of the carnivorous pitcher plant Sarracenia purpurea. Path models that incorporated food-web structure better predicted population sizes of food-web constituents than did simple keystone species models, models that included only autecological responses to habitat volume, or models including both food-web structure and habitat volume. These results provide the first experimental confirmation that trophic structure can determine species abundances in the face of habitat loss.

A study of the aggregation of cyclodextrins: Determination of the critical aggregation concentration, size of aggregates and thermodynamics using isodesmic and K2-K models.

PubMed

Do, Thao Thi; Van Hooghten, Rob; Van den Mooter, Guy

2017-04-15

The aggregation of three different cyclodextrins (CDs): 2-hydroxypropyl-β-cyclodextrin (HP-β-CD), 2-hydroxypropyl-γ-cyclodextrin (HP-γ-CD) and sulfobutylether-β-cyclodextrin (SBE-β-CD) was studied. The critical aggregation concentration (cac) of these three CDs is quite similar and is situated at ca. 2% (m/v). There was only a small difference in the cac values determined by DLS and 1 H NMR. DLS measurements revealed that CDs in solution have three size populations wherein one of them is that of a single CD molecule. The size of aggregates determined by TEM appears to be similar to the size of the aggregates in the second size distribution determined by DLS. Isodesmic and K 2 -K self-assembly models were used for studying the aggregation process of HP-β-CD, HP-γ-CD and SBE-β-CD. The results showed that the aggregation process of these CDs is a cooperative one, where the first step of aggregation is less favorable than the next steps. The determined thermodynamic parameters showed that the aggregation process of all three CDs is spontaneous and exothermic and it is driven by an increase of the entropy of the environment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pauly, Tyler; Garrod, Robin T., E-mail: tap74@cornell.edu

Computational models of interstellar gas-grain chemistry have historically adopted a single dust-grain size of 0.1 micron, assumed to be representative of the size distribution present in the interstellar medium. Here, we investigate the effects of a broad grain-size distribution on the chemistry of dust-grain surfaces and the subsequent build-up of molecular ices on the grains, using a three-phase gas-grain chemical model of a quiescent dark cloud. We include an explicit treatment of the grain temperatures, governed both by the visual extinction of the cloud and the size of each individual grain-size population. We find that the temperature difference plays amore » significant role in determining the total bulk ice composition across the grain-size distribution, while the effects of geometrical differences between size populations appear marginal. We also consider collapse from a diffuse to a dark cloud, allowing dust temperatures to fall. Under the initial diffuse conditions, small grains are too warm to promote grain-mantle build-up, with most ices forming on the mid-sized grains. As collapse proceeds, the more abundant, smallest grains cool and become the dominant ice carriers; the large population of small grains means that this ice is distributed across many grains, with perhaps no more than 40 monolayers of ice each (versus several hundred assuming a single grain size). This effect may be important for the subsequent processing and desorption of the ice during the hot-core phase of star formation, exposing a significant proportion of the ice to the gas phase, increasing the importance of ice-surface chemistry and surface–gas interactions.« less

The female advantage in natural populations of gynodioecious Plantago coronopus: seed quantity vs. offspring quality.

PubMed

van der Meer, Sascha; Sebrechts, Thomas; Vanderstraeten, Sylvette; Jacquemyn, Hans

2017-12-01

In gynodioecious plant species, females can only persist when they have a reproductive advantage in comparison with hermaphrodites. However, several studies have shown that females do not necessarily produce more seeds than hermaphrodites, since seed production can be affected by population characteristics, such as female frequency or population size. The aim of this study was to quantify the female advantage across a large number of natural populations, examine its relationship with population sex ratio and size, and to assess the role of competition on the magnitude of the female advantage. We sampled 27 populations of Plantago coronopus (nuclear-cytoplasmic gynodioecy) along the Belgian and Dutch coast. In each population, we estimated population sex ratio and size, and assessed seed production per flower and seed production per plant. Subsequently, germination, growth, and competition experiments were performed in the greenhouse to determine the female advantage regarding offspring quality. Females produced fewer seeds per plant than hermaphrodites (FA = 0.90), and seed production was negatively related to female frequency. Since both sex morphs were equally affected by pollen availability, the female advantage was not related to population sex ratio. On the other hand, offspring of females showed higher germination and growth rates, resulting in higher competitive abilities when seeds of a female and a hermaphrodite were grown together. Overall, these results indicate that differences in competitive abilities between the offspring of females and hermaphrodites may have contributed to the maintenance of females in relatively high frequencies in populations of this short-lived gynodioecious plant species.

Effect of high density on the short term Calomys musculinus spacing behaviour: A fencing experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sommaro, Lucía V.; Steinmann, Andrea R.; Chiappero, Marina B.; Priotto, José W.

2010-05-01

We studied the short term spacing behavioural responses of corn mice ( Calomys musculinus) with regard to population density in four 0.25 ha enclosures (two control and two experimental) in the 2007 breeding season. The goal of this research was to test the hypothesis that spacing behaviour only operates among C. musculinus adult females. We estimated 207 home ranges to study: 1) the home range size and the overlap degree of adult males and females in relation to population density; 2) the settlement distances of juveniles to the centre of activity of their mothers and the home range overlap proportion between them and their mothers in relation to population density. We found that home range size and overlap degree in C. musculinus adults were determined by sex and density. At high population density males had significant smaller and more exclusive home ranges, and this might reflect induced territoriality derived from social restrictions. Female home range sizes remained similar irrespective of population density, and they kept exclusive home ranges in both control and experimental enclosures. Thus, females maintained their territories independent of the population density values. The settlement distances of juveniles from their mothers and the overlap proportion between them and their mothers were independent of population density. We conclude that spacing behaviour only operates among C. musculinus adult females and it could have a role in regulating population abundances limiting the number of females that acquire breeding spaces.

A Novel Modeling Approach for Estimating Patterns of Migration into and out of San Francisco by HIV Status and Race among Men Who Have Sex with Men.

PubMed

Hughes, Alison J; Chen, Yea-Hung; Scheer, Susan; Raymond, H Fisher

2017-06-01

In the early 1980s, men who have sex with men (MSM) in San Francisco were one of the first populations to be affected by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic, and they continue to bear a heavy HIV burden. Once a rapidly fatal disease, survival with HIV improved drastically following the introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy in 1996. As a result, the ability of HIV-positive persons to move into and out of San Francisco has increased due to lengthened survival. Although there is a high level of migration among the general US population and among HIV-positive persons in San Francisco, in- and out-migration patterns of MSM in San Francisco have, to our knowledge, never been described. Understanding migration patterns by HIV serostatus is crucial in determining how migration could influence both HIV transmission dynamics and estimates of the HIV prevalence and incidence. In this article, we describe methods, results, and implications of a novel approach for indirect estimation of in- and out-migration patterns, and consequently population size, of MSM by HIV serostatus and race in San Francisco. The results suggest that the overall MSM population and all the MSM subpopulations studied decreased in size from 2006 to 2014. Further, there were differences in migration patterns by race and by HIV serostatus. The modeling methods outlined can be applied by others to determine how migration patterns contribute to HIV-positive population size and output from these models can be used in a transmission model to better understand how migration can impact HIV transmission.

Highly polygenic variation in environmental perception determines dauer larvae formation in growing populations of Caenorhabditis elegans.

PubMed

Green, James W M; Stastna, Jana J; Orbidans, Helen E; Harvey, Simon C

2014-01-01

Determining how complex traits are genetically controlled is a requirement if we are to predict how they evolve and how they might respond to selection. This requires understanding how distinct, and often more simple, life history traits interact and change in response to environmental conditions. In order to begin addressing such issues, we have been analyzing the formation of the developmentally arrested dauer larvae of Caenorhabditis elegans under different conditions. We find that 18 of 22 previously identified quantitative trait loci (QTLs) affecting dauer larvae formation in growing populations, assayed by determining the number of dauer larvae present at food patch exhaustion, can be recovered under various environmental conditions. We also show that food patch size affects both the ability to detect QTLs and estimates of effect size, and demonstrate that an allele of nath-10 affects dauer larvae formation in growing populations. To investigate the component traits that affect dauer larvae formation in growing populations we map, using the same introgression lines, QTLs that affect dauer larvae formation in response to defined amounts of pheromone. This identifies 36 QTLs, again demonstrating the highly polygenic nature of the genetic variation underlying dauer larvae formation. These data indicate that QTLs affecting the number of dauer larvae at food exhaustion in growing populations of C. elegans are highly reproducible, and that nearly all can be explained by variation affecting dauer larvae formation in response to defined amounts of pheromone. This suggests that most variation in dauer larvae formation in growing populations is a consequence of variation in the perception of the food and pheromone environment (i.e. chemosensory variation) and in the integration of these cues.

Being Attractive Brings Advantages: The Case of Parrot Species in Captivity

PubMed Central

Frynta, Daniel; Lišková, Silvie; Bültmann, Sebastian; Burda, Hynek

2010-01-01

Background Parrots are one of the most frequently kept and bred bird orders in captivity. This increases poaching and thus the potential importance of captive populations for rescue programmes managed by zoos and related institutions. Both captive breeding and poaching are selective and may be influenced by the attractiveness of particular species to humans. In this paper, we tested the hypothesis that the size of zoo populations is not only determined by conservation needs, but also by the perceived beauty of individual parrot species assessed by human observers. Methodology/Principal Findings For the purpose of data collection, we defined four sets of species (40 parrots, 367 parrots, 34 amazons, 17 macaws). Then, we asked 776 human respondents to evaluate parrot pictures of the selected species according to perceived beauty and we analyzed its association with color and morphological characters. Irrespective of the species set, we found a good agreement among the respondents. The preferred species tended to be large, colorful, and long-tailed. Conclusions/Significance We repeatedly confirmed significant, positive association between the perceived beauty and the size of worldwide zoo population. Moreover, the range size and body size appeared to be significant predictors of zoo population size. In contrast, the effects of other explanatory variables, including the IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) listing, appeared insignificant. Our results may suggest that zoos preferentially keep beautiful parrots and pay less attention to conservation needs. PMID:20830206

Uncertainty in Population Estimates for Endangered Animals and Improving the Recovery Process

PubMed Central

Haines, Aaron M.; Zak, Matthew; Hammond, Katie; Scott, J. Michael; Goble, Dale D.; Rachlow, Janet L.

2013-01-01

Simple Summary The objective of our study was to evaluate the mention of uncertainty (i.e., variance) associated with population size estimates within U.S. recovery plans for endangered animals. To do this we reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species. We found that more recent recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty. We recommend that updated recovery plans combine uncertainty of population size estimates with a minimum detectable difference to aid in successful recovery. Abstract United States recovery plans contain biological information for a species listed under the Endangered Species Act and specify recovery criteria to provide basis for species recovery. The objective of our study was to evaluate whether recovery plans provide uncertainty (e.g., variance) with estimates of population size. We reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species to record the following data: (1) if a current population size was given, (2) if a measure of uncertainty or variance was associated with current estimates of population size and (3) if population size was stipulated for recovery. We found that 59% of completed recovery plans specified a current population size, 14.5% specified a variance for the current population size estimate and 43% specified population size as a recovery criterion. More recent recovery plans reported more estimates of current population size, uncertainty and population size as a recovery criterion. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty compared to reptiles and amphibians. We suggest the use of calculating minimum detectable differences to improve confidence when delisting endangered animals and we identified incentives for individuals to get involved in recovery planning to improve access to quantitative data. PMID:26479531

Anticipatory flexibility: larval population density in moths determines male investment in antennae, wings and testes.

PubMed

Johnson, Tamara L; Symonds, Matthew R E; Elgar, Mark A

2017-11-15

Developmental plasticity provides individuals with a distinct advantage when the reproductive environment changes dramatically. Variation in population density, in particular, can have profound effects on male reproductive success. Females may be easier to locate in dense populations, but there may be a greater risk of sperm competition. Thus, males should invest in traits that enhance fertilization success over traits that enhance mate location. Conversely, males in less dense populations should invest more in structures that will facilitate mate location. In Lepidoptera, this may result in the development of larger antennae to increase the likelihood of detecting female sex pheromones, and larger wings to fly more efficiently. We explored the effects of larval density on adult morphology in the gum-leaf skeletonizer moth, Uraba lugens , by manipulating both the number of larvae and the size of the rearing container. This experimental arrangement allowed us to reveal the cues used by larvae to assess whether absolute number or density influences adult responses. Male investment in testes size depended on the number of individuals, while male investment in wings and antennae depended upon larval density. By contrast, the size of female antennae and wings were influenced by an interaction of larval number and container size. This study demonstrates that male larvae are sensitive to cues that may reveal adult population density, and adjust investment in traits associated with fertilization success and mate detection accordingly. © 2017 The Author(s).

The Effects of Grain Size and Temperature Distributions on the Formation of Interstellar Ice Mantles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pauly, Tyler; Garrod, Robin T.

2016-02-01

Computational models of interstellar gas-grain chemistry have historically adopted a single dust-grain size of 0.1 micron, assumed to be representative of the size distribution present in the interstellar medium. Here, we investigate the effects of a broad grain-size distribution on the chemistry of dust-grain surfaces and the subsequent build-up of molecular ices on the grains, using a three-phase gas-grain chemical model of a quiescent dark cloud. We include an explicit treatment of the grain temperatures, governed both by the visual extinction of the cloud and the size of each individual grain-size population. We find that the temperature difference plays a significant role in determining the total bulk ice composition across the grain-size distribution, while the effects of geometrical differences between size populations appear marginal. We also consider collapse from a diffuse to a dark cloud, allowing dust temperatures to fall. Under the initial diffuse conditions, small grains are too warm to promote grain-mantle build-up, with most ices forming on the mid-sized grains. As collapse proceeds, the more abundant, smallest grains cool and become the dominant ice carriers; the large population of small grains means that this ice is distributed across many grains, with perhaps no more than 40 monolayers of ice each (versus several hundred assuming a single grain size). This effect may be important for the subsequent processing and desorption of the ice during the hot-core phase of star formation, exposing a significant proportion of the ice to the gas phase, increasing the importance of ice-surface chemistry and surface-gas interactions.

34 CFR 272.32 - How does the Secretary determine the amount of a grant?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... objectives of the project with reasonable efficiency and economy under the budget in the application), by... funding; (d) The size and the racial or ethnic diversity of the student population of the geographic...

Metropolitan planning organizations in Texas : overview and profiles : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-04-01

A metropolitan planning organization (MPO) has authority and responsibility for regional transportation planning in urbanized areas where the population is at least 50,000 and surrounding areas meet size/density criteria determined by the U.S. Census...

Ecological drivers of group living in two populations of the communally rearing rodent, Octodon degus

PubMed Central

Sobrero, Raúl; Quirici, Verónica; Castro, Rodrigo A.; Tolhuysen, Liliana Ortiz; Vargas, Francisco; Burger, Joseph Robert; Quispe, René; Villavicencio, Camila P.; Vásquez, Rodrigo A.; Hayes, Loren D.

2012-01-01

Intraspecific variation in sociality is thought to reflect a trade-off between current fitness benefits and costs that emerge from individuals' decision to join or leave groups. Since those benefits and costs may be influenced by ecological conditions, ecological variation remains a major, ultimate cause of intraspecific variation in sociality. Intraspecific comparisons of mammalian sociality across populations facing different environmental conditions have not provided a consistent relationship between ecological variation and group-living. Thus, we studied two populations of the communally rearing rodent Octodon degus to determine how co-variation between sociality and ecology supports alternative ecological causes of group living. In particular, we examined how variables linked to predation risk, thermal conditions, burrowing costs, and food availability predicted temporal and population variation in sociality. Our study revealed population and temporal variation in total group size and group composition that covaried with population and yearly differences in ecology. In particular, predation risk and burrowing costs are supported as drivers of this social variation in degus. Thermal differences, food quantity and quality were not significant predictors of social group size. In contrast to between populations, social variation within populations was largely uncoupled from ecological differences. PMID:22344477

Defining populations and injecting parameters among people who inject drugs: Implications for the assessment of hepatitis C treatment programs.

PubMed

Larney, Sarah; Grebely, Jason; Hickman, Matthew; De Angelis, Daniela; Dore, Gregory J; Degenhardt, Louisa

2015-10-01

There is considerable interest in determining the impact that increased uptake of treatment for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection will have on the burden of HCV among people who inject drugs (PWID). An understanding of the size of the population of PWID, rates of injecting cessation and HCV prevalence and incidence within the PWID population is essential for such exercises. However, these parameters are often uncertain. In this paper we review methods for estimating the size of the population of PWID and related parameters, taking into account the uncertainty that exists around data on the natural history of injecting drug use; consider issues in the estimation of HCV prevalence among PWID; and consider the importance of opioid substitution therapy and prisons as settings for the prevention and treatment of HCV infection among PWID. These latter two points are illustrated through examples of ongoing work in England, Scotland and Australia. We conclude that an improved understanding of the size of PWID populations, including current and former PWID and parameters related to injecting drug use and settings where PWID may be reached, is necessary to inform HCV prevention and treatment strategies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Implications of nonadventitious rhizome spread on reproduction, inbreeding, and conservation for a rare grassland legume.

PubMed

Severns, Paul M; Liston, Aaron; Wilson, Mark V

2011-01-01

Small population size, genetic diversity, and spatial patterns of vegetative spread are important aspects to consider when managing populations of rare clonal plant species. We used 5 variable nuclear simple sequence repeat nDNA loci to determine the extent of genet rhizome spread, examine the possibility of very small population sizes, and project how Bombus spp. (bumblebee) foraging may impact selfing (through geitonogamy) for a threatened lupine (Lupinus oreganus Heller) that sprawls through nonadventitious rhizomes. Genotyping identified 1 genet (27 × 13 m) that dominated about 30% of a study site, whereas 15 genets spread a maximum average distance of about 5.5 m (range 1.6 -27.1 m) and appeared to be well integrated with intervening genets. We found unexpectedly high genotype diversity, no evidence of a recent genetic bottleneck, and 5 of 6 patches had mean fixation index values that were near Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium expectations. If the median maximum Bombus foraging distance observed in lupine patches (1.2 m) occurred within genotyped populations, a typical foraging flight would have >80% chance of occurring between different genets. Our study demonstrates that inferences associated with clonality, small population size, and inbreeding depression should be directly evaluated for rare vegetatively spreading plants.

Estimating population size in wastewater-based epidemiology. Valencia metropolitan area as a case study.

PubMed

Rico, María; Andrés-Costa, María Jesús; Picó, Yolanda

2017-02-05

Wastewater can provide a wealth of epidemiologic data on common drugs consumed and on health and nutritional problems based on the biomarkers excreted into community sewage systems. One of the biggest uncertainties of these studies is the estimation of the number of inhabitants served by the treatment plants. Twelve human urine biomarkers -5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid (5-HIAA), acesulfame, atenolol, caffeine, carbamazepine, codeine, cotinine, creatinine, hydrochlorothiazide (HCTZ), naproxen, salicylic acid (SA) and hydroxycotinine (OHCOT)- were determined by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) to estimate population size. The results reveal that populations calculated from cotinine, 5-HIAA and caffeine are commonly in agreement with those calculated by the hydrochemical parameters. Creatinine is too unstable to be applicable. HCTZ, naproxen, codeine, OHCOT and carbamazepine, under or overestimate the population compared to the hydrochemical population estimates but showed constant results through the weekdays. The consumption of cannabis, cocaine, heroin and bufotenine in Valencia was estimated for a week using different population calculations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Life-History and Spatial Determinants of Somatic Growth Dynamics in Komodo Dragon Populations

PubMed Central

Laver, Rebecca J.; Purwandana, Deni; Ariefiandy, Achmad; Imansyah, Jeri; Forsyth, David; Ciofi, Claudio; Jessop, Tim S.

2012-01-01

Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world’s largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species. PMID:23028983

Role of patch size, disease, and movement in rapid extinction of bighorn sheep

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singer, F.J.; Zeigenfuss, L.C.; Spicer, L.

2001-01-01

The controversy (Berger 1990, 1999; Wehausen 1999) over rapid extinction in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) has focused on population size alone as a correlate to persistence time. We report on the persistence and population performance of 24 translocated populations of bighorn sheep. Persistence in these sheep was strongly correlated with larger patch sizes, greater distance to domestic sheep, higher population growth rates, and migratory movements, as well as to larger population sizes. Persistence was also positively correlated with larger average home-range size (p = 0.058, n = 10 translocated populations) and home-range size of rams (p = 0.087, n = 8 translocated populations). Greater home-range size and dispersal rates of bighorn sheep were positively correlated to larger patches. We conclude that patch size and thus habitat carrying capacity, not population size per se, is the primary correlate to both population performance and persistence. Because habitat carrying capacity defines the upper limit to population size, clearly the amount of suitable habitat in a patch is ultimately linked to population size. Larger populations (250+ animals) were more likely to recover rapidly to their pre-epizootic survey number following an epizootic (p = 0.019), although the proportion of the population dying in the epizootic also influenced the probability of recovery (p = 0.001). Expensive management efforts to restore or increase bighorn sheep populations should focus on large habitat patches located ≥23 km from domestic sheep, and less effort should be expended on populations in isolated, small patches of habitat.

A comprehensive monitoring program for North American shorebirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howe, Marshall; Bart, Jon; Brown, Stephen; Elphick, Chris; Gill, Robert E.; Harrington, Brian A.; Hickey, Catherine; Morrison, Guy; Skagen, Susan K.; Warnock, Nils

2000-01-01

Anthropogenic changes to the biosphere, including widespread degradation and losses of habitats and ecosystems, are causing rapid and profound changes to bird and other wildlife populations throughout the world. Such changes have led to increasing risks and rates of extinction. As a consequence, information on how bird populations are changing is becoming increasingly important to wildlife conservationists and managers. Early detection of population change is crucial for setting wildlife planning and management priorities. For example, information on population size, population vulnerability, and population change has been central to international conservation strategies such as the Ramsar Convention, the Western Hemisphere (Bonn) Convention, and the Western Hemisphere Shorebird Reserve Network. Measuring population size or change is also crucial for evaluating the effectiveness of population management programs implemented by wildlife agencies both locally and regionally.Although the concept of determining population size is simple, practical difficulties can be enormous and costly to overcome. In the United States, $4 billion will be spent in year 2000 to census the human population, possibly one of the most easily counted of all vertebrates. By contrast, the portion of the FY 2000 budget of the U.S. Department of the Interior allotted for tracking populations of all migratory birds (> 600 species) is less than $5 million (.0125% of the human census figure). This falls far short of the amount required to provide adequate, science-based information about bird populations and population change to wildlife managers.The gap between current ability and need is especially noteworthy for shorebirds. There are 72 species, subspecies, or distinct populations of shorebirds in North America. Even though most of these have received less conservation attention than such groups as waterfowl, colonial waterbirds, or songbirds, recent independent evaluation of data collected for other purposes in the eastern United States and Canada during the 1970s and early 1980s showed that 16 of 26 species surveyed are apparently declining, some at rates exceeding 5% per year (Howe et al., 1989). Except for one increasing species, populations of the other 9 species were statistically unchanged over the time period analyzed. In most cases causes of shorebird population declines are poorly known. For some species, the declines may be part of natural population cycles. For others the changes may reflect deterioration of conditions on the nesting grounds, at migration stopover locations, in wintering zones, or combinations of these. Determining which of these scenarios is correct and what management actions, if any, are warranted will be possible only after implementing a comprehensive monitoring plan such as that described here

Heritabilities of somatotype components in a population from rural Mozambique.

PubMed

Saranga, Sílvio Pedro José; Prista, António; Nhantumbo, Leonardo; Beunen, Gaston; Rocha, Jorge; Williams-Blangero, Sarah; Maia, José A

2008-01-01

There have been few genetic studies of normal variation in body size and composition conducted in Africa. In particular, the genetic determinants of somatotype remain to be established for an African population. (1) To estimate the heritabilities of aspects of somatotype and (2) to compare the quantitative genetic effects in an African population to those that have been assessed in European and American populations. The sample composed of 329 subjects (173 males and 156 females) aged 7-17 years, belonging to 132 families. The sibships in the sample ranged in size from two to seven individuals. All sampled individuals were residents of the Calanga region, an area located to the north of Maputo in Mozambique. Somatotype was assessed using the Heath-Carter technique. Herit abilities were estimated using SAGE software. Moderate heritabilities were determined for each trait. Between 30 and 40% of the variation in each somatotype measure was attributable to genetic factors. The heritability of ectomorphy was 31%. Mesomorphy was similarly moderately heritable, with approximately 30% of the variationattributable to genetic factors. The heritability of endomorph was higher in the Calanga population (h(2) = 0.40). Quantitative genetic analyses of somatotype variation among siblings indicate that genetic factors significantly influence endomorphy, mesomorhpy, and ectomorphy. However, environmental factors also have significant effects on the variation in physique present in the population of Calanga. Lack of proper nutrition, housing, medical assistance, and primary health care, together with very demanding and sex-specific daily chores may contribute to the environmental effects on these traits.

Effects of diffusion on total biomass in simple metacommunities.

PubMed

Ruiz-Herrera, Alfonso; Torres, Pedro J

2018-06-14

This paper analyzes the effects of diffusion on the overall population size of the different species of a metacommunity. Depending on precise thresholds, we determine whether increasing the dispersal rate of a species has a positive or negative effect on population abundance. These thresholds depend on the interaction type of the species and the quality of the patches. The motivation for researching this issue is that spatial structure is a source of new biological insights with management interest. For instance, in a metacommunity of two competitors, the movement of a competitor could lead to a decrease of the overall population size of both species. On the other hand, we discuss when some classic results of metapopulation theory are preserved in metacommunities. Our results complement some recent experimental work by Zhang and collaborators. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Near-Earth-object survey progress and population of small near-Earth asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, A.

2014-07-01

Estimating the total population vs. size of NEAs and the completion of surveys is the same thing since the total population is just the number discovered divided by the estimated completion. I review the method of completion estimation based on ratio of re-detected objects to total detections (known plus new discoveries). The method is quite general and can be used for population estimations of all sorts, from wildlife to various classes of solar system bodies. Since 2001, I have been making estimates of population and survey progress approximately every two years. Plotted below, left, is my latest estimate, including NEA discoveries up to August, 2012. I plan to present an update at the meeting. All asteroids of a given size are not equally easy to detect because of specific orbital geometries. Thus a model of the orbital distribution is necessary, and computer simulations using those orbits need to establish the relation between the raw re-detection ratio and the actual completion fraction. This can be done for any sub-group population, allowing to estimate the population of a subgroup and the expected current completion. Once a reliable survey computer model has been developed and ''calibrated'' with respect to actual survey re-detections versus size, it can be extrapolated to smaller sizes to estimate completion even at very small size where re-detections are rare or even zero. I have recently investigated the subgroup of extremely low encounter velocity NEAs, the class of interest for the Asteroid Redirect Mission (ARM), recently proposed by NASA. I found that asteroids of diameter ˜ 10 m with encounter velocity with the Earth lower than 2.5 km/sec are detected by current surveys nearly 1,000 times more efficiently than the general background of NEAs of that size. Thus the current completion of these slow relative velocity objects may be around 1%, compared to 10^{-6} for that size objects of the general velocity distribution. Current surveys are nowhere near complete, but there may be fewer such objects than have been suggested. This conclusion is reinforced by the fact that at least a couple such discovered objects are known to be not real asteroids but spent rocket bodies in heliocentric orbit, of which there are only of the order of a hundred. Brown et al. (Nature 503, 238-241, 2013, below right, green squares are a re-plot of my blue circles on left plot) recently suggested that the population of small NEAs in the size range from roughly 5 to 50 meters in diameter may have been substantially under-estimated. To be sure, the greatest uncertainty in population estimates is in that range, since there are very few bolide events to use for estimation, and the surveys are extremely incomplete in that size range, so a factor of 3 or so discrepancy is not significant. However, the population estimated from surveys carried still smaller, where the bolide frequency becomes more secure, disagrees from the bolide estimate by even less than a factor of 3 and in fact intersects at about 3 m diameter. On the other hand, the shallow-sloping size-frequency distribution derived from the sparse large bolide data diverges badly from the survey estimates, in sizes where the survey estimates become ever-increasingly reliable, even by 100-200 m diameter. It appears that the bolide data provides a good "anchor" of the population in the size range up to about 5 m diameter, but above that one might do better just connecting that population with a straight line (on a log-log plot) with the survey-determined population at larger size, 50-100 m diameter or so.

On the role of modeling choices in estimation of cerebral aneurysm wall tension.

PubMed

Ramachandran, Manasi; Laakso, Aki; Harbaugh, Robert E; Raghavan, Madhavan L

2012-11-15

To assess various approaches to estimating pressure-induced wall tension in intracranial aneurysms (IA) and their effect on the stratification of subjects in a study population. Three-dimensional models of 26 IAs (9 ruptured and 17 unruptured) were segmented from Computed Tomography Angiography (CTA) images. Wall tension distributions in these patient-specific geometric models were estimated based on various approaches such as differences in morphological detail utilized or modeling choices made. For all subjects in the study population, the peak wall tension was estimated using all investigated approaches and were compared to a reference approach-nonlinear finite element (FE) analysis using the Fung anisotropic model with regionally varying material fiber directions. Comparisons between approaches were focused toward assessing the similarity in stratification of IAs within the population based on peak wall tension. The stratification of IAs tension deviated to some extent from the reference approach as less geometric detail was incorporated. Interestingly, the size of the cerebral aneurysm as captured by a single size measure was the predominant determinant of peak wall tension-based stratification. Within FE approaches, simplifications to isotropy, material linearity and geometric linearity caused a gradual deviation from the reference estimates, but it was minimal and resulted in little to no impact on stratifications of IAs. Differences in modeling choices made without patient-specificity in parameters of such models had little impact on tension-based IA stratification in this population. Increasing morphological detail did impact the estimated peak wall tension, but size was the predominant determinant. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty in Population Estimates for Endangered Animals and Improving the Recovery Process.

PubMed

Haines, Aaron M; Zak, Matthew; Hammond, Katie; Scott, J Michael; Goble, Dale D; Rachlow, Janet L

2013-08-13

United States recovery plans contain biological information for a species listed under the Endangered Species Act and specify recovery criteria to provide basis for species recovery. The objective of our study was to evaluate whether recovery plans provide uncertainty (e.g., variance) with estimates of population size. We reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species to record the following data: (1) if a current population size was given, (2) if a measure of uncertainty or variance was associated with current estimates of population size and (3) if population size was stipulated for recovery. We found that 59% of completed recovery plans specified a current population size, 14.5% specified a variance for the current population size estimate and 43% specified population size as a recovery criterion. More recent recovery plans reported more estimates of current population size, uncertainty and population size as a recovery criterion. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty compared to reptiles and amphibians. We suggest the use of calculating minimum detectable differences to improve confidence when delisting endangered animals and we identified incentives for individuals to get involved in recovery planning to improve access to quantitative data.

Species performance: The relationship between nutrient availability, life history traits and stress [Chapter 8

Treesearch

Jeremy J. James

2012-01-01

Differences in species performance (i.e. how a species captures and utilizes resources to maintain and increase population size), influences the rate and direction of plant community change (Sheley et al., 2006). Species performance is determined by a number of interacting factors. This includes resource supply rates, physiological traits that determine how a species...

Models for Threat Assessment in Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-09-01

Software International and Command AntiVirus . [Online]. Available: http://www.commandsoftware.com/virus/newlove.html [38] C. Ng and P. Ferrie. (2000...28 2.3 False positive trends across all population sizes for r=0.7 and m=0.1 . . . . 33 2.4 False negative trends across all population...benefits analysis is often performed to determine the list of mitigation procedures. Traditionally, risk assessment has been done in part with software

Managing the Cayo Santiago rhesus macaque population: The role of density.

PubMed

Hernandez-Pacheco, Raisa; Delgado, Diana L; Rawlins, Richard G; Kessler, Matthew J; Ruiz-Lambides, Angelina V; Maldonado, Elizabeth; Sabat, Alberto M

2016-01-01

Cayo Santiago is the oldest continuously operating free-ranging rhesus monkey colony in the world. Population control of this colony has historically been carried out by periodic live capture and removal of animals. However, the effect of such a strategy on the size, growth rate, age structure, and sex ratio of the population has not been analyzed. This study reviews past removal data and uses a population projection model to simulate the effects of different removal schemes based on Cayo Santiago demographic data from 2000-2012. The model incorporates negative density-dependence in female fertility, as well as male and female survival rates, to determine the population-level effects of selective removal by age and sex. Modeling revealed that removal of sexually immature individuals has negligible effects on the population dynamics explaining why with an initial population of 1309 in 2000 and annual removals of immature monkeys a mean annual population growth rate of 12% and a final population size of ∼1,435 individuals by 2012 (∼0.009 animal/m(2) ) was observed. With no removals, the population is expected to exhibit dampened oscillations until reaching equilibrium at ∼1,690 individuals (∼0.0111 animal/m(2) ) in 2,100. In contrast, removal of adult females (≥4 yrs) would significantly reduce the population size, but would also promote an increase in population growth rate due to density feedback. A maximum annual production of 275 births is expected when 550 adult females are present in the population. Sensitivity analyses showed that removing females, in contrast to controlling their fertility through invasive treatments would contribute the most to changes in population growth rate. Given the density compensation on fertility, stabilizing the population would require removing ∼80% of the current population of adult females. This study highlights the importance of addressing the population-level density effects, as well as sensitivity analyses, to optimize management strategies. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Ecology and biology of paddlefish in North America: historical perspectives, management approaches, and research priorities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jennings, Cecil A.; Zigler, Stephen J.

2000-01-01

Paddlefish (Polyodon spathula, Polyodontidae) are large, mostly-riverine fish that once were abundant in medium- to large-sized river systems throughout much of the central United States. Concern for paddlefish populations has grown from a regional fisheries issue to one of national importance for the United States. In 1989, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) was petitioned to list paddlefish as a federally threatened species under the Endangered Species Act. The petition was not granted, primarily because of a lack of empirical data on paddlefish population size, age structure, growth, or harvest rates across the present 22-state range. Nonetheless, concern for paddlefish populations prompted the USFWS to recommend that paddlefish be protected through the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). The addition of paddlefish to Appendix II of CITES, which was approved in March 1992, provides a mechanism to curtail illegal trade in paddlefish and their parts and supports a variety of conservation plans. Paddlefish populations have been negatively affected by overharvest, river modifications, and pollution, but the paddlefish still occupies much of its historic range and most extant populations seem to be stable. Although many facets of paddlefish biology and ecology are well understood, the lack of information on larval and juvenile ecology, mechanisms that determine recruitment, population size and vital rates, interjurisdictional movements, and the effects of anthropogenic activities present significant obstacles for managing paddlefish populations. Questions about the size and structure of local populations, and how such populations are affected by navigation traffic, dams, and pollution are regarded as medium priority areas for future research. The availability of suitable spawning habitat and overall reproductive success in impounded rivers are unknown and represent critical areas for future research. Research on reproductive and recruitment success in impounded rivers have significant implications for managing paddlefish, as rivers are modified further for human use.

Shell productivity of the large benthic foraminifer Baculogypsina sphaerulata, based on the population dynamics in a tropical reef environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujita, Kazuhiko; Otomaru, Maki; Lopati, Paeniu; Hosono, Takashi; Kayanne, Hajime

2016-03-01

Carbonate production by large benthic foraminifers is sometimes comparable to that of corals and coralline algae, and contributes to sedimentation on reef islands and beaches in the tropical Pacific. Population dynamic data, such as population density and size structure (size-frequency distribution), are vital for an accurate estimation of shell production of foraminifers. However, previous production estimates in tropical environments were based on a limited sampling period with no consideration of seasonality. In addition, no comparisons were made of various estimation methods to determine more accurate estimates. Here we present the annual gross shell production rate of Baculogypsina sphaerulata, estimated based on population dynamics studied over a 2-yr period on an ocean reef flat of Funafuti Atoll (Tuvalu, tropical South Pacific). The population density of B. sphaerulata increased from January to March, when northwest winds predominated and the study site was on the leeward side of reef islands, compared to other seasons when southeast trade winds predominated and the study site was on the windward side. This result suggested that wind-driven flows controlled the population density at the study site. The B. sphaerulata population had a relatively stationary size-frequency distribution throughout the study period, indicating no definite intensive reproductive period in the tropical population. Four methods were applied to estimate the annual gross shell production rates of B. sphaerulata. The production rates estimated by three of the four methods (using monthly biomass, life tables and growth increment rates) were in the order of hundreds of g CaCO3 m-2 yr-1 or cm-3 m-2 yr-1, and the simple method using turnover rates overestimated the values. This study suggests that seasonal surveys should be undertaken of population density and size structure as these can produce more accurate estimates of shell productivity of large benthic foraminifers.

Nurses' Emotional Intelligence Impact on the Quality of Hospital Services

PubMed Central

Ranjbar Ezzatabadi, Mohammad; Bahrami, Mohammad Amin; Hadizadeh, Farzaneh; Arab, Masoomeh; Nasiri, Soheyla; Amiresmaili, Mohammadreza; Ahmadi Tehrani, Gholamreza

2012-01-01

Background Emotional intelligence is the potential to feel, use, communicate, recognize, remember, describe, identify, learn from, manage, understand and explain emotions. Service quality also can be defined as the post-consumption assessment of the services by consumers that are determined by many variables. Objectives This study was aimed to determine the nurses’ emotional intelligence impact on the delivered services quality. Materials and Methods This descriptive - applied study was carried out through a cross-sectional method in 2010. The research had 2 populations comprising of patients admitted to three academic hospitals of Yazd and the hospital nurses. Sample size was calculated by sample size formula for unlimited (patients) and limited (nursing staff) populations and obtained with stratified- random method. The data was collected by 4 valid questionnaires. Results The results of study indicated that nurses' emotional intelligence has a direct effect on the hospital services quality. The study also revealed that nurse's job satisfaction and communication skills have an intermediate role in the emotional intelligence and service quality relation. Conclusions This paper reports a new determinant of hospital services quality. PMID:23482866

Food-Web Models Predict Species Abundances in Response to Habitat Change

PubMed Central

Gotelli, Nicholas J; Ellison, Aaron M

2006-01-01

Plant and animal population sizes inevitably change following habitat loss, but the mechanisms underlying these changes are poorly understood. We experimentally altered habitat volume and eliminated top trophic levels of the food web of invertebrates that inhabit rain-filled leaves of the carnivorous pitcher plant Sarracenia purpurea. Path models that incorporated food-web structure better predicted population sizes of food-web constituents than did simple keystone species models, models that included only autecological responses to habitat volume, or models including both food-web structure and habitat volume. These results provide the first experimental confirmation that trophic structure can determine species abundances in the face of habitat loss. PMID:17002518

3D-HST+CANDELS: The Evolution of the Galaxy Size-Mass Distribution since z = 3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Wel, A.; Franx, M.; van Dokkum, P. G.; Skelton, R. E.; Momcheva, I. G.; Whitaker, K. E.; Brammer, G. B.; Bell, E. F.; Rix, H.-W.; Wuyts, S.; Ferguson, H. C.; Holden, B. P.; Barro, G.; Koekemoer, A. M.; Chang, Yu-Yen; McGrath, E. J.; Häussler, B.; Dekel, A.; Behroozi, P.; Fumagalli, M.; Leja, J.; Lundgren, B. F.; Maseda, M. V.; Nelson, E. J.; Wake, D. A.; Patel, S. G.; Labbé, I.; Faber, S. M.; Grogin, N. A.; Kocevski, D. D.

2014-06-01

Spectroscopic+photometric redshifts, stellar mass estimates, and rest-frame colors from the 3D-HST survey are combined with structural parameter measurements from CANDELS imaging to determine the galaxy size-mass distribution over the redshift range 0 < z < 3. Separating early- and late-type galaxies on the basis of star-formation activity, we confirm that early-type galaxies are on average smaller than late-type galaxies at all redshifts, and we find a significantly different rate of average size evolution at fixed galaxy mass, with fast evolution for the early-type population, R effvprop(1 + z)-1.48, and moderate evolution for the late-type population, R effvprop(1 + z)-0.75. The large sample size and dynamic range in both galaxy mass and redshift, in combination with the high fidelity of our measurements due to the extensive use of spectroscopic data, not only fortify previous results but also enable us to probe beyond simple average galaxy size measurements. At all redshifts the slope of the size-mass relation is shallow, R_{eff}\\propto M_*^{0.22}, for late-type galaxies with stellar mass >3 × 109 M ⊙, and steep, R_{eff}\\propto M_*^{0.75}, for early-type galaxies with stellar mass >2 × 1010 M ⊙. The intrinsic scatter is lsim0.2 dex for all galaxy types and redshifts. For late-type galaxies, the logarithmic size distribution is not symmetric but is skewed toward small sizes: at all redshifts and masses, a tail of small late-type galaxies exists that overlaps in size with the early-type galaxy population. The number density of massive (~1011 M ⊙), compact (R eff < 2 kpc) early-type galaxies increases from z = 3 to z = 1.5-2 and then strongly decreases at later cosmic times.

Introgression Makes Waves in Inferred Histories of Effective Population Size.

PubMed

Hawks, John

2017-01-01

Human populations have a complex history of introgression and of changing population size. Human genetic variation has been affected by both these processes, so inference of past population size depends upon the pattern of gene flow and introgression among past populations. One remarkable aspect of human population history as inferred from genetics is a consistent "wave" of larger effective population sizes, found in both African and non-African populations, that appears to reflect events prior to the last 100,000 years. I carried out a series of simulations to investigate how introgression and gene flow from genetically divergent ancestral populations affect the inference of ancestral effective population size. Both introgression and gene flow from an extinct, genetically divergent population consistently produce a wave in the history of inferred effective population size. The time and amplitude of the wave reflect the time of origin of the genetically divergent ancestral populations and the strength of introgression or gene flow. These results demonstrate that even small fractions of introgression or gene flow from ancient populations may have visible effects on the inference of effective population size.

Genetic Diversity in Introduced Populations with an Allee Effect

PubMed Central

Wittmann, Meike J.; Gabriel, Wilfried; Metzler, Dirk

2014-01-01

A phenomenon that strongly influences the demography of small introduced populations and thereby potentially their genetic diversity is the demographic Allee effect, a reduction in population growth rates at small population sizes. We take a stochastic modeling approach to investigate levels of genetic diversity in populations that successfully overcame either a strong Allee effect, in which populations smaller than a certain critical size are expected to decline, or a weak Allee effect, in which the population growth rate is reduced at small sizes but not negative. Our results indicate that compared to successful populations without an Allee effect, successful populations with a strong Allee effect tend to (1) derive from larger founder population sizes and thus have a higher initial amount of genetic variation, (2) spend fewer generations at small population sizes where genetic drift is particularly strong, and (3) spend more time around the critical population size and thus experience more genetic drift there. In the case of multiple introduction events, there is an additional increase in diversity because Allee-effect populations tend to derive from a larger number of introduction events than other populations. Altogether, a strong Allee effect can either increase or decrease genetic diversity, depending on the average founder population size. By contrast, a weak Allee effect tends to decrease genetic diversity across the entire range of founder population sizes. Finally, we show that it is possible in principle to infer critical population sizes from genetic data, although this would require information from many independently introduced populations. PMID:25009147

Estimation of the real population and its impact on the utilisation of healthcare services in Mediterranean resort regions: an ecological study

PubMed Central

Perea-Milla, Emilio; Pons, Sergi Mari; Rivas-Ruiz, Francisco; Gallofre, Anna; Jurado, Enrique Navarro; Ales, Marco A Navarro; Jimenez-Puente, Alberto; Fernandez-Nieto, Fidel; Cerda, Joan C March; Carrasco, Manuel; Martin, Lydia; Cano, Damian Lopez; Gutierrez, Gonzalo E; Macías, Rafael Cortes; Garcia-Ruiz, Jose A

2007-01-01

Background The demographic structure has a significant influence on the use of healthcare services, as does the size of the population denominators. Very few studies have been published on methods for estimating the real population such as tourist resorts. The lack of information about these problems means there is a corresponding lack of information about the behaviour of populational denominators (the floating population or tourist load) and the effect of this on the use of healthcare services. The objectives of the study were: a) To determine the Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) ratio, per person per day, among populations of known size; b) to estimate, by means of this ratio, the real population in an area where tourist numbers are very significant; and c) to determine the impact on the utilisation of hospital emergency healthcare services of the registered population, in comparison to the non-resident population, in two areas where tourist numbers are very significant. Methods An ecological study design was employed. We analysed the Healthcare Districts of the Costa del Sol and the island of Menorca. Both are Spanish territories in the Mediterranean region. Results In the two areas analysed, the correlation coefficient between the MSW ratio and admissions to hospital emergency departments exceeded 0.9, with p < 0.001. On the basis of MSW generation ratios, obtained for a control zone and also measured in neighbouring countries, we estimated the real population. For the summer months, when tourist activity is greatest and demand for emergency healthcare at hospitals is highest, this value was found to be double that of the registered population. Conclusion The MSW indicator, which is both ecological and indirect, can be used to estimate the real population in areas where population levels vary significantly during the year. This parameter is of interest in planning and dimensioning the provision of healthcare services. PMID:17266744

Estimation of the real population and its impact on the utilisation of healthcare services in Mediterranean resort regions: an ecological study.

PubMed

Perea-Milla, Emilio; Pons, Sergi Mari; Rivas-Ruiz, Francisco; Gallofre, Anna; Jurado, Enrique Navarro; Ales, Marco A Navarro; Jimenez-Puente, Alberto; Fernandez-Nieto, Fidel; Cerda, Joan C March; Carrasco, Manuel; Martin, Lydia; Cano, Damian Lopez; Gutierrez, Gonzalo E; Macías, Rafael Cortes; Garcia-Ruiz, Jose A

2007-01-31

The demographic structure has a significant influence on the use of healthcare services, as does the size of the population denominators. Very few studies have been published on methods for estimating the real population such as tourist resorts. The lack of information about these problems means there is a corresponding lack of information about the behaviour of populational denominators (the floating population or tourist load) and the effect of this on the use of healthcare services. The objectives of the study were: a) To determine the Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) ratio, per person per day, among populations of known size; b) to estimate, by means of this ratio, the real population in an area where tourist numbers are very significant; and c) to determine the impact on the utilisation of hospital emergency healthcare services of the registered population, in comparison to the non-resident population, in two areas where tourist numbers are very significant. An ecological study design was employed. We analysed the Healthcare Districts of the Costa del Sol and the island of Menorca. Both are Spanish territories in the Mediterranean region. In the two areas analysed, the correlation coefficient between the MSW ratio and admissions to hospital emergency departments exceeded 0.9, with p < 0.001. On the basis of MSW generation ratios, obtained for a control zone and also measured in neighbouring countries, we estimated the real population. For the summer months, when tourist activity is greatest and demand for emergency healthcare at hospitals is highest, this value was found to be double that of the registered population. The MSW indicator, which is both ecological and indirect, can be used to estimate the real population in areas where population levels vary significantly during the year. This parameter is of interest in planning and dimensioning the provision of healthcare services.

Real-time PCR assays for monitoring anaerobic fungal biomass and population size in the rumen.

PubMed

Lwin, Khin Ohnmar; Hayakawa, Mika; Ban-Tokuda, Tomomi; Matsui, Hiroki

2011-04-01

The relationship between copy numbers of internal transcribed spacer 1 (ITS1) and biomass or zoospore count of anaerobic fungi was studied to develop a quantitative real-time PCR-based monitoring method for fungal biomass or population in the rumen. Nine fungal strains were used to determine the relationship between ITS1 copy number and fungal biomass. Rumen fluid from three sheep and a cow were used to determine the relationship between ITS1 copy number and fungal population. ITS1 copy number was determined by real-time PCR with a specific primer set for anaerobic fungi. Freeze-dried fungal cells were weighed for fungal biomass. Zoospore counts were determined by the roll-tube method. A positive correlation was observed between both ITS1 copy number and dry weight and ITS1 copy number and zoospore counts, suggesting that the use of ITS1 copy numbers is effective for estimating fungal biomass and population density. On the basis of ITS1 copy numbers, fluctuations in the fungal population in sheep rumen showed that although the values varied among individual animals, the fungal population tended to decrease after feeding. In the present study, a culture-independent method was established that will provide a powerful tool for understanding the ecology of anaerobic fungi in the rumen.

Effects of diffusion on total biomass in heterogeneous continuous and discrete-patch systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeAngelis, Donald L.; Ming Ni, Wei; Zhang, Bo

2016-01-01

Theoretical models of populations on a system of two connected patches previously have shown that when the two patches differ in maximum growth rate and carrying capacity, and in the limit of high diffusion, conditions exist for which the total population size at equilibrium exceeds that of the ideal free distribution, which predicts that the total population would equal the total carrying capacity of the two patches. However, this result has only been shown for the Pearl-Verhulst growth function on two patches and for a single-parameter growth function in continuous space. Here, we provide a general criterion for total population size to exceed total carrying capacity for three commonly used population growth rates for both heterogeneous continuous and multi-patch heterogeneous landscapes with high population diffusion. We show that a sufficient condition for this situation is that there is a convex positive relationship between the maximum growth rate and the parameter that, by itself or together with the maximum growth rate, determines the carrying capacity, as both vary across a spatial region. This relationship occurs in some biological populations, though not in others, so the result has ecological implications.

Normative spleen size in tall healthy athletes: implications for safe return to contact sports after infectious mononucleosis.

PubMed

McCorkle, Ryan; Thomas, Brittany; Suffaletto, Heidi; Jehle, Dietrich

2010-11-01

To establish normative parameters of the spleen by ultrasonography in tall athletes. Prospective cohort observational study. University of Buffalo, Erie County Community College, University of Texas at Tyler, and Austin College. Sixty-six athletes enrolled and finished the study. Height requirements were at least 6 feet 2 inches for men and at least 5 feet 7 inches in women. Measurement of spleen size in tall athletes. Ultrasound measurements of spleen size in tall athletes were compared with "normal-sized" controls from the literature. Mean, SD, and variance determined the sample distribution, and a one sample t test compared measurements in tall athletes with historical measurements in the average height population. Statistical significance was defined as P < 0.05. Mean height was 192.26 cm (SD, ± 6.52) for men and 176.54 cm (SD, ± 5.19) for women. Mean splenic measurements for all subjects were 12.19 cm (SD, ± 1.45) for spleen length, 8.88 cm (SD, ± 0.96) for spleen width, and 5.55 cm (SD, ± 0.76) for spleen thickness. The study mean for spleen length was 12.192 cm (95% confidence interval, 11.835-12.549) and population mean was 8.94 cm (2 tailed t test, P < 0.01). In this population of tall athletes, normal spleen size was significantly larger than the normal spleen size of an average individual. In the clinical arena, it can be difficult to know when the tall athletes with splenomegaly from infectious mononucleosis can safely return to contact sports. Previously, there has not been a sufficient "norm" for this population, but this study helps to establish baseline values.

Evolution of larval competitiveness and associated life-history traits in response to host shifts in a seed beetle.

PubMed

Fox, C W; Messina, F J

2018-02-01

Resource competition is frequently strong among parasites that feed within small discrete resource patches, such as seeds or fruits. The properties of a host can influence the behavioural, morphological and life-history traits of associated parasites, including traits that mediate competition within the host. For seed parasites, host size may be an especially important determinant of competitive ability. Using the seed beetle, Callosobruchus maculatus, we performed replicated, reciprocal host shifts to examine the role of seed size in determining larval competitiveness and associated traits. Populations ancestrally associated with either a small host (mung bean) or a large one (cowpea) were switched to each other's host for 36 generations. Compared to control lines (those remaining on the ancestral host), lines switched from the small host to the large host evolved greater tolerance of co-occurring larvae within seeds (indicated by an increase in the frequency of small seeds yielding two adults), smaller egg size and higher fecundity. Each change occurred in the direction predicted by the traits of populations already adapted to cowpea. However, we did not observe the expected decline in adult mass following the shift to the larger host. Moreover, lines switched from the large host (cowpea) to the small host (mung bean) did not evolve the predicted increase in larval competitiveness or egg size, but did exhibit the predicted increase in body mass. Our results thus provide mixed support for the hypothesis that host size determines the evolution of competition-related traits of seed beetles. Evolutionary responses to the two host shifts were consistent among replicate lines, but the evolution of larval competition was asymmetric, with larval competitiveness evolving as predicted in one direction of host shift, but not the reverse. Nevertheless, our results indicate that switching hosts is sufficient to produce repeatable and rapid changes in the competition strategy and fitness-related traits of insect populations. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Sex-ratio, seasonality and long-term variation in maturation and spawning of the brown shrimp Crangon crangon (L.) in the German Bight (North Sea)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siegel, V.; Damm, U.; Neudecker, T.

2008-12-01

Aspects of the reproductive and maturation biology of the brown shrimp Crangon crangon (L.) were studied in various subareas of the German Bight (North Sea). The size-specific sex ratio of C. crangon was examined based on length frequency distribution data. The sex ratio for the smallest size groups at which sex was determined was typically around 0.5, indicating an even ratio between males and females. The proportion of females decreased in the 30-45 mm size range. In length classes larger than 50 mm, the proportion of females constantly increases to 100% at around 60 mm total length. We concluded that sex reversal from male to female may not occur in C. crangon. Size at sexual maturity was determined from the proportion of ovigerous females. Size at maturity ( L 50) was estimated as 55.4 and 62.0 mm total length for spring and winter data, respectively. The seasonal spawning cycle was studied over the period 1958-2005. Between mid February and late June and for size classes larger than 65 mm ovigerous shrimps exceeded 80% and reached up to 100% of the females in the population. This period can be seen as the core spawning season. From early August to early December the proportion of ovigerous shrimps in the female population is very low. Interannual differences in the seasonal process are obvious with a dramatic decline in C. crangon reproductive success in the late 1980s. Various options are discussed for the reasons of the decline and recovery of the reproductive performance.

Reduced Genetic Diversity and Increased Structure in American Mink on the Swedish Coast following Invasive Species Control.

PubMed

Zalewski, Andrzej; Zalewska, Hanna; Lunneryd, Sven-Gunnar; André, Carl; Mikusiński, Grzegorz

2016-01-01

Eradication and population reductions are often used to mitigate the negative impacts of non-native invasive species on native biodiversity. However, monitoring the effectiveness of non-native species control programmes is necessary to evaluate the efficacy of these measures. Genetic monitoring could provide valuable insights into temporal changes in demographic, ecological, and evolutionary processes in invasive populations being subject to control programmes. Such programmes should cause a decrease in effective population size and/or in genetic diversity of the targeted non-native species and an increase in population genetic structuring over time. We used microsatellite DNA data from American mink (Neovison vison) to determine whether the removal of this predator on the Koster Islands archipelago and the nearby Swedish mainland affected genetic variation over six consecutive years of mink culling by trappers as part of a population control programme. We found that on Koster Islands allelic richness decreased (from on average 4.53 to 3.55), genetic structuring increased, and effective population size did not change. In contrast, the mink population from the Swedish coast showed no changes in genetic diversity or structure, suggesting the stability of this population over 6 years of culling. Effective population size did not change over time but was higher on the coast than on the islands across all years. Migration rates from the islands to the coast were almost two times higher than from the coast to the islands. Most migrants leaving the coast were localised on the southern edge of the archipelago, as expected from the direction of the sea current between the two sites. Genetic monitoring provided valuable information on temporal changes in the population of American mink suggesting that this approach can be used to evaluate and improve control programmes of invasive vertebrates.

Inequalities in body size among mermithid nematodes parasitizing earwigs.

PubMed

Maure, Fanny; Poulin, Robert

2016-12-01

Variation among body sizes of adult parasitic worms determines the relative genetic contribution of individuals to the next generation as it affects the effective parasite population size. Here, we investigate inequalities in body size and how they are affected by intensity of infection in Mermis nigrescens (Mermithidae: Nematoda) parasitizing the European earwig Forficula auricularia in New Zealand. Among a population of pre-adult worms prior to their emergence from the host, we observed only modest inequalities in body length; however, among worms sharing the same individual host, inequalities in body sizes decreased with increasing intensity of infection. Thus, the more worms occurred in a host, the more the second-longest, third-longest and even fourth-longest worms approached the longest worm in body length. This pattern, also known from another mermithid species, suggests that worms sharing the same host may have infected it roughly simultaneously, when the host encountered a clump of eggs in the environment. Thus, the life history and mode of infection of the parasite may explain the modest inequalities in the sizes achieved by pre-adult worms, which are lower than those reported for endoparasitic helminths of vertebrates.

Hard time to be parents? Sea urchin fishery shifts potential reproductive contribution of population onto the shoulders of the young adults.

PubMed

Loi, Barbara; Guala, Ivan; Pires da Silva, Rodrigo; Brundu, Gianni; Baroli, Maura; Farina, Simone

2017-01-01

In Sardinia, as in other regions of the Mediterranean Sea, sustainable fisheries of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus have become a necessity. At harvesting sites, the systematic removal of large individuals (diameter ≥ 50 mm) seriously compromises the biological and ecological functions of sea urchin populations. Specifically, in this study, we compared the reproductive potential of the populations from Mediterranean coastal areas which have different levels of sea urchin fishing pressure. The areas were located at Su Pallosu Bay, where pressure is high and Tavolara-Punta Coda Cavallo, a marine protected area where sea urchin harvesting is low. Reproductive potential was estimated by calculating the gonadosomatic index (GSI) from June 2013 to May 2014 both for individuals of commercial size (diameter without spines, TD ≥ 50 mm) and the undersized ones with gonads (30 ≤ TD < 40 mm and 40 ≤ TD < 50 mm). Gamete output was calculated for the commercial-size class and the undersized individuals with fertile gonads (40 ≤ TD < 50 mm) in relation to their natural density (gamete output per m 2 ). The reproductive potential of populations was slightly different at the beginning of the sampling period but it progressed at different rates with an early spring spawning event in the high-pressure zone and two gamete depositions in early and late spring in the low-pressure zone. For each fertile size class, GSI values changed significantly during the year of our study and between the two zones. Although the multiple spawning events determined a two-fold higher total gamete output of population (popTGO) in the low-pressure zone, the population mean gamete output (popMGO) was similar in the two zones. In the high-pressure zone, the commercial-sized individuals represented approximatively 5% of the population, with almost all the individuals smaller than 60 mm producing an amount of gametes nearly three times lower than the undersized ones. Conversely, the high density of the undersized individuals released a similar amount of gametes to the commercial-size class in the low-pressure zone. Overall, the lack of the commercial-size class in the high-pressure zone does not seem to be very alarming for the self-supporting capacity of the population, and the reproductive potential contribution seems to depend more on the total density of fertile sea urchins than on their size. However, since population survival in the high-pressure zone is supported by the high density of undersized sea urchins between 30 and 50 mm, management measures should be addressed to maintain these sizes and to shed light on the source of the larval supply.

Hard time to be parents? Sea urchin fishery shifts potential reproductive contribution of population onto the shoulders of the young adults

PubMed Central

Guala, Ivan; Pires da Silva, Rodrigo; Brundu, Gianni; Baroli, Maura; Farina, Simone

2017-01-01

Background In Sardinia, as in other regions of the Mediterranean Sea, sustainable fisheries of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus have become a necessity. At harvesting sites, the systematic removal of large individuals (diameter ≥ 50 mm) seriously compromises the biological and ecological functions of sea urchin populations. Specifically, in this study, we compared the reproductive potential of the populations from Mediterranean coastal areas which have different levels of sea urchin fishing pressure. The areas were located at Su Pallosu Bay, where pressure is high and Tavolara-Punta Coda Cavallo, a marine protected area where sea urchin harvesting is low. Methods Reproductive potential was estimated by calculating the gonadosomatic index (GSI) from June 2013 to May 2014 both for individuals of commercial size (diameter without spines, TD ≥ 50 mm) and the undersized ones with gonads (30 ≤ TD < 40 mm and 40 ≤ TD < 50 mm). Gamete output was calculated for the commercial-size class and the undersized individuals with fertile gonads (40 ≤ TD < 50 mm) in relation to their natural density (gamete output per m2). Results The reproductive potential of populations was slightly different at the beginning of the sampling period but it progressed at different rates with an early spring spawning event in the high-pressure zone and two gamete depositions in early and late spring in the low-pressure zone. For each fertile size class, GSI values changed significantly during the year of our study and between the two zones. Although the multiple spawning events determined a two-fold higher total gamete output of population (popTGO) in the low-pressure zone, the population mean gamete output (popMGO) was similar in the two zones. In the high-pressure zone, the commercial-sized individuals represented approximatively 5% of the population, with almost all the individuals smaller than 60 mm producing an amount of gametes nearly three times lower than the undersized ones. Conversely, the high density of the undersized individuals released a similar amount of gametes to the commercial-size class in the low-pressure zone. Discussion Overall, the lack of the commercial-size class in the high-pressure zone does not seem to be very alarming for the self-supporting capacity of the population, and the reproductive potential contribution seems to depend more on the total density of fertile sea urchins than on their size. However, since population survival in the high-pressure zone is supported by the high density of undersized sea urchins between 30 and 50 mm, management measures should be addressed to maintain these sizes and to shed light on the source of the larval supply. PMID:28289567

Trapped within the city: integrating demography, time since isolation and population-specific traits to assess the genetic effects of urbanization.

PubMed

Lourenço, André; Álvarez, David; Wang, Ian J; Velo-Antón, Guillermo

2017-03-01

Urbanization is a severe form of habitat fragmentation that can cause many species to be locally extirpated and many others to become trapped and isolated within an urban matrix. The role of drift in reducing genetic diversity and increasing genetic differentiation is well recognized in urban populations. However, explicit incorporation and analysis of the demographic and temporal factors promoting drift in urban environments are poorly studied. Here, we genotyped 15 microsatellites in 320 fire salamanders from the historical city of Oviedo (Est. 8th century) to assess the effects of time since isolation, demographic history (historical effective population size; N e ) and patch size on genetic diversity, population structure and contemporary N e . Our results indicate that urban populations of fire salamanders are highly differentiated, most likely due to the recent N e declines, as calculated in coalescence analyses, concomitant with the urban development of Oviedo. However, urbanization only caused a small loss of genetic diversity. Regression modelling showed that patch size was positively associated with contemporary N e , while we found only moderate support for the effects of demographic history when excluding populations with unresolved history. This highlights the interplay between different factors in determining current genetic diversity and structure. Overall, the results of our study on urban populations of fire salamanders provide some of the very first insights into the mechanisms affecting changes in genetic diversity and population differentiation via drift in urban environments, a crucial subject in a world where increasing urbanization is forecasted. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effective population size of korean populations.

PubMed

Park, Leeyoung

2014-12-01

Recently, new methods have been developed for estimating the current and recent changes in effective population sizes. Based on the methods, the effective population sizes of Korean populations were estimated using data from the Korean Association Resource (KARE) project. The overall changes in the population sizes of the total populations were similar to CHB (Han Chinese in Beijing, China) and JPT (Japanese in Tokyo, Japan) of the HapMap project. There were no differences in past changes in population sizes with a comparison between an urban area and a rural area. Age-dependent current and recent effective population sizes represent the modern history of Korean populations, including the effects of World War II, the Korean War, and urbanization. The oldest age group showed that the population growth of Koreans had already been substantial at least since the end of the 19th century.

Measuring Spatial Accessibility of Health Care Providers – Introduction of a Variable Distance Decay Function within the Floating Catchment Area (FCA) Method

PubMed Central

Groneberg, David A.

2016-01-01

We integrated recent improvements within the floating catchment area (FCA) method family into an integrated ‘iFCA`method. Within this method we focused on the distance decay function and its parameter. So far only distance decay functions with constant parameters have been applied. Therefore, we developed a variable distance decay function to be used within the FCA method. We were able to replace the impedance coefficient β by readily available distribution parameter (i.e. median and standard deviation (SD)) within a logistic based distance decay function. Hence, the function is shaped individually for every single population location by the median and SD of all population-to-provider distances within a global catchment size. Theoretical application of the variable distance decay function showed conceptually sound results. Furthermore, the existence of effective variable catchment sizes defined by the asymptotic approach to zero of the distance decay function was revealed, satisfying the need for variable catchment sizes. The application of the iFCA method within an urban case study in Berlin (Germany) confirmed the theoretical fit of the suggested method. In summary, we introduced for the first time, a variable distance decay function within an integrated FCA method. This function accounts for individual travel behaviors determined by the distribution of providers. Additionally, the function inherits effective variable catchment sizes and therefore obviates the need for determining variable catchment sizes separately. PMID:27391649

Estimating the size of hidden populations using respondent-driven sampling data: Case examples from Morocco

PubMed Central

Johnston, Lisa G; McLaughlin, Katherine R; Rhilani, Houssine El; Latifi, Amina; Toufik, Abdalla; Bennani, Aziza; Alami, Kamal; Elomari, Boutaina; Handcock, Mark S

2015-01-01

Background Respondent-driven sampling is used worldwide to estimate the population prevalence of characteristics such as HIV/AIDS and associated risk factors in hard-to-reach populations. Estimating the total size of these populations is of great interest to national and international organizations, however reliable measures of population size often do not exist. Methods Successive Sampling-Population Size Estimation (SS-PSE) along with network size imputation allows population size estimates to be made without relying on separate studies or additional data (as in network scale-up, multiplier and capture-recapture methods), which may be biased. Results Ten population size estimates were calculated for people who inject drugs, female sex workers, men who have sex with other men, and migrants from sub-Sahara Africa in six different cities in Morocco. SS-PSE estimates fell within or very close to the likely values provided by experts and the estimates from previous studies using other methods. Conclusions SS-PSE is an effective method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations that leverages important information within respondent-driven sampling studies. The addition of a network size imputation method helps to smooth network sizes allowing for more accurate results. However, caution should be used particularly when there is reason to believe that clustered subgroups may exist within the population of interest or when the sample size is small in relation to the population. PMID:26258908

Natal habitat imprinting counteracts the diversifying effects of phenotype-dependent dispersal in a spatially structured population.

PubMed

Camacho, Carlos; Canal, David; Potti, Jaime

2016-08-08

Habitat selection may have profound evolutionary consequences, but they strongly depend on the underlying preference mechanism, including genetically-determined, natal habitat and phenotype-dependent preferences. It is known that different mechanisms may operate at the same time, yet their relative contribution to population differentiation remains largely unexplored empirically mainly because of the difficulty of finding suitable study systems. Here, we investigate the role of early experience and genetic background in determining the outcome of settlement by pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) breeding in two habitat patches between which dispersal and subsequent reproductive performance is influenced by phenotype (body size). For this, we conducted a cross-fostering experiment in a two-patch system: an oakwood and a conifer plantation separated by only 1 km. Experimental birds mostly returned to breed in the forest patch where they were raised, whether it was that of their genetic or their foster parents, indicating that decisions on where to settle are determined by individuals' experience in their natal site, rather than by their genetic background. Nevertheless, nearly a third (27.6 %) moved away from the rearing habitat and, as previously observed in unmanipulated individuals, dispersal between habitats was phenotype-dependent. Pied flycatchers breeding in the oak and the pine forests are differentiated by body size, and analyses of genetic variation at microsatellite loci now provide evidence of subtle genetic differentiation between the two populations. This suggests that phenotype-dependent dispersal may contribute to population structure despite the short distance and widespread exchange of birds between the study plots. Taken together, the current and previous findings that pied flycatchers do not always settle in the habitat to which they are best suited suggest that their strong tendency to return to the natal patch regardless of their body size might lead to maladaptive settlement decisions and thus constrain the potential of phenotype-dependent dispersal to promote microgeographic adaptation.

Variance Estimation, Design Effects, and Sample Size Calculations for Respondent-Driven Sampling

PubMed Central

2006-01-01

Hidden populations, such as injection drug users and sex workers, are central to a number of public health problems. However, because of the nature of these groups, it is difficult to collect accurate information about them, and this difficulty complicates disease prevention efforts. A recently developed statistical approach called respondent-driven sampling improves our ability to study hidden populations by allowing researchers to make unbiased estimates of the prevalence of certain traits in these populations. Yet, not enough is known about the sample-to-sample variability of these prevalence estimates. In this paper, we present a bootstrap method for constructing confidence intervals around respondent-driven sampling estimates and demonstrate in simulations that it outperforms the naive method currently in use. We also use simulations and real data to estimate the design effects for respondent-driven sampling in a number of situations. We conclude with practical advice about the power calculations that are needed to determine the appropriate sample size for a study using respondent-driven sampling. In general, we recommend a sample size twice as large as would be needed under simple random sampling. PMID:16937083

Risk, mobility or population size? Drivers of technological richness among contact-period western North American hunter-gatherers.

PubMed

Collard, Mark; Buchanan, Briggs; O'Brien, Michael J; Scholnick, Jonathan

2013-11-19

Identifying factors that influence technological evolution in small-scale societies is important for understanding human evolution. There have been a number of attempts to identify factors that influence the evolution of food-getting technology, but little work has examined the factors that affect the evolution of other technologies. Here, we focus on variation in technological richness (total number of material items and techniques) among recent hunter-gatherers from western North America and test three hypotheses: (i) technological richness is affected by environmental risk, (ii) population size is the primary determinant of technological richness, and (iii) technological richness is constrained by residential mobility. We found technological richness to be correlated with a proxy for environmental risk-mean rainfall for the driest month-in the manner predicted by the risk hypothesis. Support for the hypothesis persisted when we controlled for shared history and intergroup contact. We found no evidence that technological richness is affected by population size or residential mobility. These results have important implications for unravelling the complexities of technological evolution.

Risk, mobility or population size? Drivers of technological richness among contact-period western North American hunter–gatherers

PubMed Central

Collard, Mark; Buchanan, Briggs; O'Brien, Michael J.; Scholnick, Jonathan

2013-01-01

Identifying factors that influence technological evolution in small-scale societies is important for understanding human evolution. There have been a number of attempts to identify factors that influence the evolution of food-getting technology, but little work has examined the factors that affect the evolution of other technologies. Here, we focus on variation in technological richness (total number of material items and techniques) among recent hunter–gatherers from western North America and test three hypotheses: (i) technological richness is affected by environmental risk, (ii) population size is the primary determinant of technological richness, and (iii) technological richness is constrained by residential mobility. We found technological richness to be correlated with a proxy for environmental risk—mean rainfall for the driest month—in the manner predicted by the risk hypothesis. Support for the hypothesis persisted when we controlled for shared history and intergroup contact. We found no evidence that technological richness is affected by population size or residential mobility. These results have important implications for unravelling the complexities of technological evolution. PMID:24101622

A score-statistic approach for determining threshold values in QTL mapping.

PubMed

Kao, Chen-Hung; Ho, Hsiang-An

2012-06-01

Issues in determining the threshold values of QTL mapping are often investigated for the backcross and F2 populations with relatively simple genome structures so far. The investigations of these issues in the progeny populations after F2 (advanced populations) with relatively more complicated genomes are generally inadequate. As these advanced populations have been well implemented in QTL mapping, it is important to address these issues for them in more details. Due to an increasing number of meiosis cycle, the genomes of the advanced populations can be very different from the backcross and F2 genomes. Therefore, special devices that consider the specific genome structures present in the advanced populations are required to resolve these issues. By considering the differences in genome structure between populations, we formulate more general score test statistics and gaussian processes to evaluate their threshold values. In general, we found that, given a significance level and a genome size, threshold values for QTL detection are higher in the denser marker maps and in the more advanced populations. Simulations were performed to validate our approach.

Variation in style morph frequencies in tristylous Lythrum salicaria in the Iberian Peninsula: the role of geographical and demographic factors

PubMed Central

Costa, Joana; Castro, Sílvia; Loureiro, João; Barrett, Spencer C. H.

2016-01-01

Background and Aims The balance between stochastic forces and negative frequency-dependent selection largely determines style morph frequencies in heterostylous populations. Investigation of morph frequencies at geographical range limits can provide insights into the forces maintaining the floral polymorphism, and the factors causing biased morph ratios. Here, we investigate style morph frequencies in populations at the south-western European range limit of tristylous Lythrum salicaria, to explore the role of demographic and geographical factors influencing morph ratios in its native range. Methods We measured morph composition and evenness, and the size of 96 populations, along a north to south latitudinal transect from Galicia to Andalucia, Iberian Peninsula, traversing a steep climatic gradient. To examine the potential influence of morph-specific fitness components on morph ratios, we examined reproductive traits in 19 populations. Key Results Most populations of L. salicaria were trimorphic (94·79 %), the majority exhibiting 1 : 1 : 1 morph ratios (68·75 %). Populations with biased morph ratios had a deficiency of the short-styled morph. Population size and morph evenness were positively associated with latitude, with smaller populations and those with less even morph ratios occurring towards the south. Greater variance in morph evenness was evident at the southern range margin. There were no consistent differences in components of reproductive fitness among style morphs, but southern populations produced less fruit and seed than more northerly populations. Conclusions Our results demonstrate the influence of finite population size on morph frequencies in L. salicaria. However, they also illustrate the resilience of Iberian populations to the factors causing deviations from isoplethy and morph loss, especially at the southern range limit where populations are smaller. The maintenance of tristyly in small populations of L. salicaria may be aided by the genetic connectivity of populations in agricultural landscapes resulting from gene flow through pollen and seed dispersal. PMID:26658100

Distribution and diversity of cytotypes in Dianthus broteri as evidenced by genome size variations

PubMed Central

Balao, Francisco; Casimiro-Soriguer, Ramón; Talavera, María; Herrera, Javier; Talavera, Salvador

2009-01-01

Background and Aims Studying the spatial distribution of cytotypes and genome size in plants can provide valuable information about the evolution of polyploid complexes. Here, the spatial distribution of cytological races and the amount of DNA in Dianthus broteri, an Iberian carnation with several ploidy levels, is investigated. Methods Sample chromosome counts and flow cytometry (using propidium iodide) were used to determine overall genome size (2C value) and ploidy level in 244 individuals of 25 populations. Both fresh and dried samples were investigated. Differences in 2C and 1Cx values among ploidy levels within biogeographical provinces were tested using ANOVA. Geographical correlations of genome size were also explored. Key Results Extensive variation in chromosomes numbers (2n = 2x = 30, 2n = 4x = 60, 2n = 6x = 90 and 2n = 12x =180) was detected, and the dodecaploid cytotype is reported for the first time in this genus. As regards cytotype distribution, six populations were diploid, 11 were tetraploid, three were hexaploid and five were dodecaploid. Except for one diploid population containing some triploid plants (2n = 45), the remaining populations showed a single cytotype. Diploids appeared in two disjunct areas (south-east and south-west), and so did tetraploids (although with a considerably wider geographic range). Dehydrated leaf samples provided reliable measurements of DNA content. Genome size varied significantly among some cytotypes, and also extensively within diploid (up to 1·17-fold) and tetraploid (1·22-fold) populations. Nevertheless, variations were not straightforwardly congruent with ecology and geographical distribution. Conclusions Dianthus broteri shows the highest diversity of cytotypes known to date in the genus Dianthus. Moreover, some cytotypes present remarkable internal genome size variation. The evolution of the complex is discussed in terms of autopolyploidy, with primary and secondary contact zones. PMID:19633312

Determining the minimal clinically important difference criteria for the Multidimensional Fatigue Inventory in a radiotherapy population.

PubMed

Purcell, Amanda; Fleming, Jennifer; Bennett, Sally; Burmeister, Bryan; Haines, Terry

2010-03-01

The Multidimensional Fatigue Inventory (MFI) is a commonly used cancer-related fatigue assessment tool. Unlike other fatigue assessments, there are no published minimal clinically important difference (MCID) criteria for the MFI in cancer populations. MCID criteria determine the smallest change in scores that can be regarded as important, allowing clinicians and researchers to interpret the meaning of changes in patient's fatigue scores. This research aims to improve the clinical utility of the MFI by establishing MCID criteria for the MFI sub-scales in a radiotherapy population. Two hundred ten patients undergoing radiotherapy were recruited to a single-centre prospective cohort study. Patients were assessed at three time points, at the start of radiotherapy, the end of radiotherapy and 6 weeks after radiotherapy completion. Assessment consisted of four clinically relevant constructs: (1) treatment impact on fatigue, (2) health-related quality of life, (3) performance status and (4) occupational productivity. These constructs were used as external or anchor-based measures to determine MCIDs for each sub-scale of the MFI. Multiple MCIDs were identified, each from a different perspective based on the constructs cited. Researchers seeking to use a generic MCID may wish to use a two-point reference for each MFI sub-scale as it was consistent across the pre- and post-radiotherapy comparison and occupational productivity anchors. MCIDs validated in this study allow better interpretation of changes in MFI sub-scale scores and allow effect size calculations for determining sample size in future studies.

DNA pooling strategies for categorical (ordinal) traits

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Despite reduced genotyping costs in recent years, obtaining genotypes for all individuals in a population may still not be feasible when sample size is large. DNA pooling provides a useful alternative to determining genotype effects. Clustering algorithms allow for grouping of individuals (observati...

Mourning dove population trend estimates from Call-Count and North American Breeding Bird Surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Dolton, D.D.; Droege, S.

1994-01-01

The mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) Callcount Survey and the North American Breeding Bird Survey provide information on population trends of mourning doves throughout the continental United States. Because surveys are an integral part of the development of hunting regulations, a need exists to determine which survey provides precise information. We estimated population trends from 1966 to 1988 by state and dove management unit, and assessed the relative efficiency of each survey. Estimates of population trend differ (P lt 0.05) between surveys in 11 of 48 states; 9 of 11 states with divergent results occur in the Eastern Management Unit. Differences were probably a consequence of smaller sample sizes in the Callcount Survey. The Breeding Bird Survey generally provided trend estimates with smaller variances than did the Callcount Survey. Although the Callcount Survey probably provides more withinroute accuracy because of survey methods and timing, the Breeding Bird Survey has a larger sample size of survey routes and greater consistency of coverage in the Eastern Unit.

Regulation of Aedes aegypti Population Dynamics in Field Systems: Quantifying Direct and Delayed Density Dependence

PubMed Central

Walsh, Rachael K.; Aguilar, Cristobal L.; Facchinelli, Luca; Valerio, Laura; Ramsey, Janine M.; Scott, Thomas W.; Lloyd, Alun L.; Gould, Fred

2013-01-01

Transgenic strains of Aedes aegypti have been engineered to help control transmission of dengue virus. Although resources have been invested in developing the strains, we lack data on the ecology of mosquitoes that could impact the success of this approach. Although studies of intra-specific competition have been conducted using Ae. aegypti larvae, none of these studies examine mixed age cohorts at densities that occur in the field, with natural nutrient levels. Experiments were conducted in Mexico to determine the impact of direct and delayed density dependence on Ae. aegypti populations. Natural water, food, and larval densities were used to estimate the impacts of density dependence on larval survival, development, and adult body size. Direct and delayed density-dependent factors had a significant impact on larval survival, larval development, and adult body size. These results indicate that control methods attempting to reduce mosquito populations may be counteracted by density-dependent population regulation. PMID:23669230

Population size effects in evolutionary dynamics on neutral networks and toy landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumedha; Martin, Olivier C.; Peliti, Luca

2007-05-01

We study the dynamics of a population subject to selective pressures, evolving either on RNA neutral networks or on toy fitness landscapes. We discuss the spread and the neutrality of the population in the steady state. Different limits arise depending on whether selection or random drift is dominant. In the presence of strong drift we show that the observables depend mainly on Mμ, M being the population size and μ the mutation rate, while corrections to this scaling go as 1/M: such corrections can be quite large in the presence of selection if there are barriers in the fitness landscape. Also we find that the convergence to the large-Mμ limit is linear in 1/Mμ. Finally we introduce a protocol that minimizes drift; then observables scale like 1/M rather than 1/(Mμ), allowing one to determine the large-M limit more quickly when μ is small; furthermore the genotypic diversity increases from O(lnM) to O(M).

Optimal city size and population density for the 21st century.

PubMed

Speare A; White, M J

1990-10-01

The thesis that large scale urban areas result in greater efficiency, reduced costs, and a better quality of life is reexamined. The environmental and social costs are measured for different scales of settlement. The desirability and perceived problems of a particular place are examined in relation to size of place. The consequences of population decline are considered. New York city is described as providing both opportunities in employment, shopping, and cultural activities as well as a high cost of living, crime, and pollution. The historical development of large cities in the US is described. Immigration has contributed to a greater concentration of population than would have otherwise have occurred. The spatial proximity of goods and services argument (agglomeration economies) has changed with advancements in technology such as roads, trucking, and electronic communication. There is no optimal city size. The overall effect of agglomeration can be assessed by determining whether the markets for goods and labor are adequate to maximize well-being and balance the negative and positive aspects of urbanization. The environmental costs of cities increase with size when air quality, water quality, sewage treatment, and hazardous waste disposal is considered. Smaller scale and lower density cities have the advantages of a lower concentration of pollutants. Also, mobilization for program support is easier with homogenous population. Lower population growth in large cities would contribute to a higher quality of life, since large metropolitan areas have a concentration of immigrants, younger age distributions, and minority groups with higher than average birth rates. The negative consequences of decline can be avoided if reduction of population in large cities takes place gradually. For example, poorer quality housing can be removed for open space. Cities should, however, still attract all classes of people with opportunities equally available.

The population ecology of two tropical trees, Brachychiton diversifolius (Malvaceae) and Bombax ceiba (Bombaceae), harvested by Indigenous woodcarvers in Arnhem Land, Australia.

PubMed

Koenig, Jennifer; Griffiths, Anthony

2012-10-01

We describe the population ecology of two tropical deciduous trees, Bombax ceiba leiocarpum A. Robyns and Brachychiton diversifolius R. Br., which are in high demand for Indigenous sculpture production in Arnhem Land, Australia. We monitored tagged populations of both species at two locations for 2 years to examine their reproduction, growth, and survival rates and their response to harvest. Both species have similar life histories: they reproduce during the dry season (June-November) producing a high seed load, seed predation was high, seeds did not survive in the soil past the following wet season to form a seed bank, and germination rates were low and variable for both species. Average annual circumference growth rates were 1.07 cm year(-1) for B. ceiba and 0.98 cm year(-1) for B. diversifolius, with most of the growth occurring during the early wet season. Most (65-88 %) of the harvested B. ceiba and B. diversifolius stems coppiced. Coppice and stem size class were the main factors influencing tree growth rates with coppice stems growing up to six times faster than similar sized non-coppice stems. The survival of B. ceiba and B. diversifolius stems was size class dependent and affected by local site factors (e.g. fire and other disturbances) so that the smaller size classes had a low probability of survival. Given the resprouting potential of both species, their wild harvest is likely to have only minimal local impact on wild populations. However, further population modelling is required to determine whether the small and disjunct B. ceiba populations can sustain harvesting at current levels.

Discriminating the effects of spatial extent and population size in cyclic competition among species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamouroux, D.; Eule, S.; Geisel, T.; Nagler, J.

2012-08-01

We introduce a population model for species under cyclic competition. This model allows individuals to coexist and interact on single cells while migration takes place between adjacent cells. In contrast to the model introduced by Reichenbach, Mobilia, and Frey [Reichenbach, Mobilia, and Frey, Nature (London)NATUAS0028-083610.1038/nature06095 448, 1046 (2007)], we find that the emergence of spirals results in an ambiguous behavior regarding the stability of coexistence. The typical time until extinction exhibits, however, a qualitatively opposite dependence on the newly introduced nonunit carrying capacity in the spiraling and the nonspiraling regimes. This allows us to determine a critical mobility that marks the onset of this spiraling state sharply. In contrast, we demonstrate that the conventional finite size stability analysis with respect to spatial size is of limited use for identifying the onset of the spiraling regime.

Random-growth urban model with geographical fitness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kii, Masanobu; Akimoto, Keigo; Doi, Kenji

2012-12-01

This paper formulates a random-growth urban model with a notion of geographical fitness. Using techniques of complex-network theory, we study our system as a type of preferential-attachment model with fitness, and we analyze its macro behavior to clarify the properties of the city-size distributions it predicts. First, restricting the geographical fitness to take positive values and using a continuum approach, we show that the city-size distributions predicted by our model asymptotically approach Pareto distributions with coefficients greater than unity. Then, allowing the geographical fitness to take negative values, we perform local coefficient analysis to show that the predicted city-size distributions can deviate from Pareto distributions, as is often observed in actual city-size distributions. As a result, the model we propose can generate a generic class of city-size distributions, including but not limited to Pareto distributions. For applications to city-population projections, our simple model requires randomness only when new cities are created, not during their subsequent growth. This property leads to smooth trajectories of city population growth, in contrast to other models using Gibrat’s law. In addition, a discrete form of our dynamical equations can be used to estimate past city populations based on present-day data; this fact allows quantitative assessment of the performance of our model. Further study is needed to determine appropriate formulas for the geographical fitness.

What determines species richness of parasitic organisms? A meta-analysis across animal, plant and fungal hosts.

PubMed

Kamiya, Tsukushi; O'Dwyer, Katie; Nakagawa, Shinichi; Poulin, Robert

2014-02-01

Although a small set of external factors account for much of the spatial variation in plant and animal diversity, the search continues for general drivers of variation in parasite species richness among host species. Qualitative reviews of existing evidence suggest idiosyncrasies and inconsistent predictive power for all proposed determinants of parasite richness. Here, we provide the first quantitative synthesis of the evidence using a meta-analysis of 62 original studies testing the relationship between parasite richness across animal, plant and fungal hosts, and each of its four most widely used presumed predictors: host body size, host geographical range size, host population density, and latitude. We uncover three universal predictors of parasite richness across host species, namely host body size, geographical range size and population density, applicable regardless of the taxa considered and independently of most aspects of study design. A proper match in the primary studies between the focal predictor and both the spatial scale of study and the level at which parasite species richness was quantified (i.e. within host populations or tallied across a host species' entire range) also affected the magnitude of effect sizes. By contrast, except for a couple of indicative trends in subsets of the full dataset, there was no strong evidence for an effect of latitude on parasite species richness; where found, this effect ran counter to the general latitude gradient in diversity, with parasite species richness tending to be higher further from the equator. Finally, the meta-analysis also revealed a negative relationship between the magnitude of effect sizes and the year of publication of original studies (i.e. a time-lag bias). This temporal bias may be due to the increasing use of phylogenetic correction in comparative analyses of parasite richness over time, as this correction yields more conservative effect sizes. Overall, these findings point to common underlying processes of parasite diversification fundamentally different from those controlling the diversity of free-living organisms. © 2013 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2013 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Effects of habitat fragmentation and disturbance on howler monkeys: a review.

PubMed

Arroyo-Rodríguez, Víctor; Dias, Pedro Américo D

2010-01-01

We examined the literature on the effects of habitat fragmentation and disturbance on howler monkeys (genus Alouatta) to (1) identify different threats that may affect howlers in fragmented landscapes; (2) review specific predictions developed in fragmentation theory and (3) identify the empirical evidence supporting these predictions. Although howlers are known for their ability to persist in both conserved and disturbed conditions, we found evidence that they are negatively affected by high levels of habitat loss, fragmentation and degradation. Patch size appears to be the main factor constraining populations in fragmented habitats, probably because patch size is positively related to food availability, and negatively related to anthropogenic pressures, physiological stress and parasite loads. Patch isolation is not a strong predictor of either patch occupancy or population size in howlers, a result that may be related to the ability of howlers to move among forest patches. Thus, we propose that it is probable that habitat loss has larger consistent negative effects on howler populations than habitat fragmentation per se. In general, food availability decreases with patch size, not only due to habitat loss, but also because the density of big trees, plant species richness and howlers' home range size are lower in smaller patches, where howlers' population densities are commonly higher. However, it is unclear which vegetation attributes have the biggest influence on howler populations. Similarly, our knowledge is still limited concerning the effects of postfragmentation threats (e.g. hunting and logging) on howlers living in forest patches, and how several endogenous threats (e.g. genetic diversity, physiological stress, and parasitism) affect the distribution, population structure and persistence of howlers. More long-term studies with comparable methods are necessary to quantify some of the patterns discussed in this review, and determine through meta-analyses whether there are significant inter-specific differences in species' responses to habitat loss and fragmentation. (c) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Spatial variation in abiotic and biotic factors in a floodplain determine anuran body size and growth rate at metamorphosis.

PubMed

Indermaur, Lukas; Schmidt, Benedikt R; Tockner, Klement; Schaub, Michael

2010-07-01

Body size at metamorphosis is a critical trait in the life history of amphibians. Despite the wide-spread use of amphibians as experimental model organisms, there is a limited understanding of how multiple abiotic and biotic factors affect the variation in metamorphic traits under natural conditions. The aim of our study was to quantify the effects of abiotic and biotic factors on spatial variation in the body size of tadpoles and size at metamorphosis of the European common toad (Bufo b. spinosus). Our study population was distributed over the riverbed (active tract) and the fringing riparian forest of a natural floodplain. The riverbed had warm ponds with variable hydroperiod and few predators, whereas the forest had ponds with the opposite characteristics. Spatial variation in body size at metamorphosis was governed by the interactive effects of abiotic and biotic factors. The particular form of the interaction between water temperature and intraspecific tadpole density suggests that abiotic factors laid the foundation for biotic factors: intraspecific density decreased growth only at high temperature. Predation and intraspecific density jointly reduced metamorphic size. Interspecific density had a negligible affect on body size at metamorphosis, suggesting weak inter-anuran interactions in the larval stage. Population density at metamorphosis was about one to two orders of magnitudes higher in the riverbed ponds than in the forest ponds, mainly because of lower tadpole mortality. Based on our results, we conclude that ponds in the riverbed appear to play a pivotal role for the population because tadpole growth and survival is best in this habitat.

Particle size fractionation of paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs): seasonal distribution and bacterial production in the St Lawrence estuary, Canada.

PubMed

Michaud, S; Levasseur, M; Doucette, G; Cantin, G

2002-10-01

We determined the seasonal distribution of paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs) and PST producing bacteria in > 15, 5-15, and 0.22-5 microm size fractions in the St Lawrence. We also measured PSTs in a local population of Mytilus edulis. PST concentrations were determined in each size fraction and in laboratory incubations of sub-samples by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), including the rigorous elimination of suspected toxin 'imposter' peaks. Mussel toxin levels were determined by mouse bioassay and HPLC. PSTs were detected in all size fractions during the summer sampling season, with 47% of the water column toxin levels associated with particles smaller than Alexandrium tamarense (< 15 microm). Even in the > 15 microm size fraction, we estimated that as much as 92% of PSTs could be associated with particles other than A. tamarense. Our results stress the importance of taking into account the potential presence of PSTs in size fractions other than that containing the known algal producer when attempting to model shellfish intoxication, especially during years of low cell abundance. Finally, our HPLC results confirmed the presence of bacteria capable of autonomous PST production in the St Lawrence as well as demonstrating their regular presence and apparent diversity in the plankton. Copyright 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd.

On the probability of cure for heavy-ion radiotherapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanin, Leonid; Zaider, Marco

2014-07-01

The probability of a cure in radiation therapy (RT)—viewed as the probability of eventual extinction of all cancer cells—is unobservable, and the only way to compute it is through modeling the dynamics of cancer cell population during and post-treatment. The conundrum at the heart of biophysical models aimed at such prospective calculations is the absence of information on the initial size of the subpopulation of clonogenic cancer cells (also called stem-like cancer cells), that largely determines the outcome of RT, both in an individual and population settings. Other relevant parameters (e.g. potential doubling time, cell loss factor and survival probability as a function of dose) are, at least in principle, amenable to empirical determination. In this article we demonstrate that, for heavy-ion RT, microdosimetric considerations (justifiably ignored in conventional RT) combined with an expression for the clone extinction probability obtained from a mechanistic model of radiation cell survival lead to useful upper bounds on the size of the pre-treatment population of clonogenic cancer cells as well as upper and lower bounds on the cure probability. The main practical impact of these limiting values is the ability to make predictions about the probability of a cure for a given population of patients treated to newer, still unexplored treatment modalities from the empirically determined probability of a cure for the same or similar population resulting from conventional low linear energy transfer (typically photon/electron) RT. We also propose that the current trend to deliver a lower total dose in a smaller number of fractions with larger-than-conventional doses per fraction has physical limits that must be understood before embarking on a particular treatment schedule.

Regeneration of a keystone semiarid shrub over its range in Spain: habitat degradation overrides the positive effects of plant-animal mutualisms.

PubMed

Rey, Pedro J; Cancio, Inmaculada; Manzaneda, Antonio J; González-Robles, Ana; Valera, Francisco; Salido, Teresa; Alcántara, Julio M

2018-06-22

Global change drivers are currently affecting semiarid ecosystems. Because these ecosystems differ from others in biotic and abiotic filters, cues for plant regeneration and management derived from elsewhere may not be applicable to semiarid ecosystems. We sought to determine the extent to which regional variation in regeneration prospects of a long-lived semiarid keystone shrub depends on anthropogenic habitat degradation, plant-animal interactions and climate determinants. We investigated the regeneration ability (via population size structure, juvenile density and juvenile/adult ratio), fruit set and seed dispersal of Ziziphus lotus in 25 localities spanning the range of its threatened habitats in Spain. We dissected the relative contribution of different regeneration determinants using multiple regression and structural equation modelling. Population regeneration was extremely poor, and size structures were biased towards large classes and low juvenile densities and juvenile/adult ratios. Poor regeneration was often coincident with seed dispersal collapse. However, the positive effect of seed dispersal on population regeneration disappeared after considering its relationship with habitat degradation. Protected areas did have juveniles. Together, these data suggest that habitat degradation directly impacts juvenile establishment. Our results provide insights into habitat and species management at the regional level. Z. lotus populations are currently driven by persistence-based dynamics through the longevity of the species. Nonetheless, collapsed seed dispersal, poor regeneration and the removal of adults from their habitats forecast extinction of Z. lotus in many remnants. The extreme longevity of Z. lotus grants opportunities for the recovery of its populations and habitats through effective enforcement of regulations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Environmental drivers defining linkages among life-history traits: mechanistic insights from a semiterrestrial amphipod subjected to macroscale gradients.

PubMed

Gómez, Julio; Barboza, Francisco R; Defeo, Omar

2013-10-01

Determining the existence of interconnected responses among life-history traits and identifying underlying environmental drivers are recognized as key goals for understanding the basis of phenotypic variability. We studied potentially interconnected responses among senescence, fecundity, embryos size, weight of brooding females, size at maturity and sex ratio in a semiterrestrial amphipod affected by macroscale gradients in beach morphodynamics and salinity. To this end, multiple modelling processes based on generalized additive mixed models were used to deal with the spatio-temporal structure of the data obtained at 10 beaches during 22 months. Salinity was the only nexus among life-history traits, suggesting that this physiological stressor influences the energy balance of organisms. Different salinity scenarios determined shifts in the weight of brooding females and size at maturity, having consequences in the number and size of embryos which in turn affected sex determination and sex ratio at the population level. Our work highlights the importance of analysing field data to find the variables and potential mechanisms that define concerted responses among traits, therefore defining life-history strategies.

Statistical Physics of Population Genetics in the Low Population Size Limit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atwal, Gurinder

The understanding of evolutionary processes lends itself naturally to theory and computation, and the entire field of population genetics has benefited greatly from the influx of methods from applied mathematics for decades. However, in spite of all this effort, there are a number of key dynamical models of evolution that have resisted analytical treatment. In addition, modern DNA sequencing technologies have magnified the amount of genetic data available, revealing an excess of rare genetic variants in human genomes, challenging the predictions of conventional theory. Here I will show that methods from statistical physics can be used to model the distribution of genetic variants, incorporating selection and spatial degrees of freedom. In particular, a functional path-integral formulation of the Wright-Fisher process maps exactly to the dynamics of a particle in an effective potential, beyond the mean field approximation. In the small population size limit, the dynamics are dominated by instanton-like solutions which determine the probability of fixation in short timescales. These results are directly relevant for understanding the unusual genetic variant distribution at moving frontiers of populations.

Theoretical Study of near Neutrality. II. Effect of Subdivided Population Structure with Local Extinction and Recolonization

PubMed Central

Ohta, T.

1992-01-01

There are several unsolved problems concerning the model of nearly neutral mutations. One is the interaction of subdivided population structure and weak selection that spatially fluctuates. The model of nearly neutral mutations whose selection coefficient spatially fluctuates has been studied by adopting the island model with periodic extinction-recolonization. Both the number of colonies and the migration rate play significant roles in determining mutants' behavior, and selection is ineffective when the extinction-recolonization is frequent with low migration rate. In summary, the number of mutant substitutions decreases and the polymorphism increases by increasing the total population size, and/or decreasing the extinction-recolonization rate. However, by increasing the total size of the population, the mutant substitution rate does not become as low when compared with that in panmictic populations, because of the extinction-recolonization, especially when the migration rate is limited. It is also found that the model satisfactorily explains the contrasting patterns of molecular polymorphisms observed in sibling species of Drosophila, including heterozygosity, proportion of polymorphism and fixation index. PMID:1582566

Loss of genetic connectivity and diversity in urban microreserves in a southern California endemic Jerusalem cricket (Orthoptera: Stenopelmatidae: Stenopelmatus n. sp. "santa monica")

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vandergast, A.G.; Lewallen, E.A.; Deas, J.; Bohonak, A.J.; Weissman, D.B.; Fisher, R.N.

2009-01-01

Microreserves may be useful in protecting native arthropod diversity in urbanized landscapes. However, species that do not disperse through the urban matrix may eventually be lost from these fragments. Population extinctions may be precipitated by an increase in genetic differentiation among fragments and loss of genetic diversity within fragments, and these effects should become stronger with time. We analyzed population genetic structure in the dispersal limited Jerusalem cricket Stenopelmatus n. sp. "santa monica" in the Santa Monica Mountains and Simi Hills north of Los Angeles, California (CA), to determine the impacts of fragmentation over the past 70 years. MtDNA divergence was greater among urban fragments than within contiguous habitat and was positively correlated with fragment age. MtDNA genetic diversity within fragments increased with fragment size and decreased with fragment age. Genetic divergence across 38 anonymous nuclear Inter-Simple Sequence Repeat (ISSR) loci was influenced by the presence of major highways and highway age, but there was no effect of additional urban fragmentation. ISSR diversity was not correlated with fragment size or age. Differing results between markers may be due to male-biased dispersal, or different effective population sizes, sorting rates, or mutation rates among sampled genes. Results suggest that genetic connectivity among populations has been disrupted by highways and urban development, prior to declines in local population sizes. We emphasize that genetic connectivity can rapidly erode in fragmented landscapes and that flightless arthropods can serve as sensitive indicators for these effects. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008.

Mapping of Vegetation with the Geoinformation System and Determining of Carrying Capacity of the Pre-Urals Steppe area for a Newly Establishing Population of the Przewalski Horse Equus ferus przewalskii at the Orenburg State Nature Reserve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fedorov, N. I.; Mikhailenko, O. I.; Zharkikh, T. L.; Bakirova, R. T.

2018-01-01

Mapping of the vegetation (1:25000) of the Pre-Urals Steppe area at the Orenburg State Nature Reserve was completed in 2016. A map created with the geoinformation system contains 1931 simple and complex polygons for 25 types of vegetation. In a drought year, the average stock of palatable vegetation of the whole area is estimated at 8380 tons dry weight. The estimation is based on the size of areas covered by different types of vegetation, their grass production, the correction coefficients for decreasing of pasture forage stocks in winter and decreasing of production of grass communities in dry years. Based on pasture forage stocks the area could tolerate the maximum population size of 1769 individuals of the Przewalski horse, their average density could be 0.11 horse per ha. Yet, as watering places for animals are limited in Pre-Urals Steppe, grazing pressures on the vegetation next to the water sources may increase in dry years. That is why the above-mentioned calculated maximum population size and density must be reduced at least by half until some additional watering places are established and monitoring of the grazing effect on the vegetation next to the places is carried out regularly. Thus, the maximum size of the population is estimated at 800 to 900 individuals, which is almost 1.5 times more than necessary to establish a self-sustained population of the Przewalski horse.

Validation of endoscopy for determination of maturity in small salmonids and sex of mature individuals

Treesearch

Erica A. Swenson; Amanda E. Rosenberger; Philip J. Howell

2007-01-01

Fish maturity status, sex ratio, and age and size at first maturity are important parameters in population assessments and life history studies. In most empirical studies of these variables, fish are sacrificed and dissected to obtain data. However, maturity status and the sex of mature individuals can be determined by inserting an endoscope through a small incision in...

Reduced fecundity in small populations of the rare plant Gentianopsis ciliate (Gentianaceae)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kery, M.; Matthies, D.

2004-01-01

Habitat destruction is the main cause for the biodiversity crisis. Surviving populations are often fragmented, i.e., small and isolated from each other. Reproduction of plants in small populations is often reduced, and this has been attributed to inbreeding depression, reduced attractiveness for pollinators, and reduced habitat quality in small populations. Here we present data on the effects of fragmentation on the rare, self-compatible perennial herb Gentianopsis ciliata (Gentianaceae), a species with very small and presumably well-dispersed seeds. We studied the relationship between population size, plant size, and the number of flowers produced in 63 populations from 1996-1998. In one of the years, leaf and flower size and the number of seeds produced per fruit was studied in a subset of 25 populations. Plant size, flower size, and the number of seeds per fruit and per plant increased with population size, whereas leaf length and the number of flowers per plant did not. The effects of population size on reproduction and on flower size remained significant if the effects were adjusted for differences in plant size, indicating that they could not be explained by differences in habitat quality. The strongly reduced reproduction in small populations may be due to pollination limitation, while the reduced flower size could indicate genetic effects.

Reduced fecundity in small populations of the rare plant Gentianopsis ciliate (Gentianaceae)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, C.S.

1983-01-01

Habitat destruction is the main cause for the biodiversity crisis. Surviving populations are often fragmented, i.e., small and isolated from each other. Reproduction of plants in small populations is often reduced, and this has been attributed to inbreeding depression, reduced attractiveness for pollinators, and reduced habitat quality in small populations. Here we present data on the effects of fragmentation on the rare, self-compatible perennial herb Gentianopsis ciliata (Gentianaceae), a species with very small and presumably well-dispersed seeds. We studied the relationship between population size, plant size, and the number of flowers produced in 63 populations from 1996-1998. In one of the years, leaf and flower size and the number of seeds produced per fruit was studied in a subset of 25 populations. Plant size, flower size, and the number of seeds per fruit and per plant increased with population size, whereas leaf length and the number of flowers per plant did not. The effects of population size on reproduction and on flower size remained significant if the effects were adjusted for differences in plant size, indicating that they could not be explained by differences in habitat quality. The strongly reduced reproduction in small populations may be due to pollination limitation, while the reduced flower size could indicate genetic effects.

A framework for estimating the determinants of spatial and temporal variation in vital rates and inferring the occurrence of unobserved extreme events

PubMed Central

Jesenšek, Dušan; Crivelli, Alain J.

2018-01-01

We develop a general framework that combines long-term tag–recapture data and powerful statistical and modelling techniques to investigate how population, environmental and climate factors determine variation in vital rates and population dynamics in an animal species, using as a case study the population of brown trout living in Upper Volaja (Western Slovenia). This population has been monitored since 2004. Upper Volaja is a sink, receiving individuals from a source population living above a waterfall. We estimate the numerical contribution of the source population on the sink population and test the effects of temperature, population density and extreme events on variation in vital rates among 2647 individually tagged brown trout. We found that individuals dispersing downstream from the source population help maintain high population densities in the sink population despite poor recruitment. The best model of survival for individuals older than juveniles includes additive effects of birth cohort and sampling occasion. Fast growth of older cohorts and higher population densities in 2004–2005 suggest very low population densities in the late 1990s, which we hypothesize were caused by a flash flood that strongly reduced population size and created the habitat conditions for faster individual growth and transient higher population densities after the extreme event. PMID:29657746

A framework for estimating the determinants of spatial and temporal variation in vital rates and inferring the occurrence of unobserved extreme events.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone; Jesenšek, Dušan; Crivelli, Alain J

2018-03-01

We develop a general framework that combines long-term tag-recapture data and powerful statistical and modelling techniques to investigate how population, environmental and climate factors determine variation in vital rates and population dynamics in an animal species, using as a case study the population of brown trout living in Upper Volaja (Western Slovenia). This population has been monitored since 2004. Upper Volaja is a sink, receiving individuals from a source population living above a waterfall. We estimate the numerical contribution of the source population on the sink population and test the effects of temperature, population density and extreme events on variation in vital rates among 2647 individually tagged brown trout. We found that individuals dispersing downstream from the source population help maintain high population densities in the sink population despite poor recruitment. The best model of survival for individuals older than juveniles includes additive effects of birth cohort and sampling occasion. Fast growth of older cohorts and higher population densities in 2004-2005 suggest very low population densities in the late 1990s, which we hypothesize were caused by a flash flood that strongly reduced population size and created the habitat conditions for faster individual growth and transient higher population densities after the extreme event.

Does source population size affect performance in new environments?

PubMed Central

Yates, Matthew C; Fraser, Dylan J

2014-01-01

Small populations are predicted to perform poorly relative to large populations when experiencing environmental change. To explore this prediction in nature, data from reciprocal transplant, common garden, and translocation studies were compared meta-analytically. We contrasted changes in performance resulting from transplantation to new environments among individuals originating from different sized source populations from plants and salmonids. We then evaluated the effect of source population size on performance in natural common garden environments and the relationship between population size and habitat quality. In ‘home-away’ contrasts, large populations exhibited reduced performance in new environments. In common gardens, the effect of source population size on performance was inconsistent across life-history stages (LHS) and environments. When transplanted to the same set of new environments, small populations either performed equally well or better than large populations, depending on life stage. Conversely, large populations outperformed small populations within native environments, but only at later life stages. Population size was not associated with habitat quality. Several factors might explain the negative association between source population size and performance in new environments: (i) stronger local adaptation in large populations and antagonistic pleiotropy, (ii) the maintenance of genetic variation in small populations, and (iii) potential environmental differences between large and small populations. PMID:25469166

Population size does not explain past changes in cultural complexity.

PubMed

Vaesen, Krist; Collard, Mark; Cosgrove, Richard; Roebroeks, Wil

2016-04-19

Demography is increasingly being invoked to account for features of the archaeological record, such as the technological conservatism of the Lower and Middle Pleistocene, the Middle to Upper Paleolithic transition, and cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania. Such explanations are commonly justified in relation to population dynamic models developed by Henrich [Henrich J (2004)Am Antiq69:197-214] and Powell et al. [Powell A, et al. (2009)Science324(5932):1298-1301], which appear to demonstrate that population size is the crucial determinant of cultural complexity. Here, we show that these models fail in two important respects. First, they only support a relationship between demography and culture in implausible conditions. Second, their predictions conflict with the available archaeological and ethnographic evidence. We conclude that new theoretical and empirical research is required to identify the factors that drove the changes in cultural complexity that are documented by the archaeological record.

Population size does not explain past changes in cultural complexity

PubMed Central

Vaesen, Krist; Collard, Mark; Cosgrove, Richard; Roebroeks, Wil

2016-01-01

Demography is increasingly being invoked to account for features of the archaeological record, such as the technological conservatism of the Lower and Middle Pleistocene, the Middle to Upper Paleolithic transition, and cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania. Such explanations are commonly justified in relation to population dynamic models developed by Henrich [Henrich J (2004) Am Antiq 69:197–214] and Powell et al. [Powell A, et al. (2009) Science 324(5932):1298–1301], which appear to demonstrate that population size is the crucial determinant of cultural complexity. Here, we show that these models fail in two important respects. First, they only support a relationship between demography and culture in implausible conditions. Second, their predictions conflict with the available archaeological and ethnographic evidence. We conclude that new theoretical and empirical research is required to identify the factors that drove the changes in cultural complexity that are documented by the archaeological record. PMID:27044082

Population-Area Relationship for Medieval European Cities

PubMed Central

Lobo, José; Bettencourt, Luís M. A.; Ortman, Scott G.; Smith, Michael E.

2016-01-01

Medieval European urbanization presents a line of continuity between earlier cities and modern European urban systems. Yet, many of the spatial, political and economic features of medieval European cities were particular to the Middle Ages, and subsequently changed over the Early Modern Period and Industrial Revolution. There is a long tradition of demographic studies estimating the population sizes of medieval European cities, and comparative analyses of these data have shed much light on the long-term evolution of urban systems. However, the next step—to systematically relate the population size of these cities to their spatial and socioeconomic characteristics—has seldom been taken. This raises a series of interesting questions, as both modern and ancient cities have been observed to obey area-population relationships predicted by settlement scaling theory. To address these questions, we analyze a new dataset for the settled area and population of 173 European cities from the early fourteenth century to determine the relationship between population and settled area. To interpret this data, we develop two related models that lead to differing predictions regarding the quantitative form of the population-area relationship, depending on the level of social mixing present in these cities. Our empirical estimates of model parameters show a strong densification of cities with city population size, consistent with patterns in contemporary cities. Although social life in medieval Europe was orchestrated by hierarchical institutions (e.g., guilds, church, municipal organizations), our results show no statistically significant influence of these institutions on agglomeration effects. The similarities between the empirical patterns of settlement relating area to population observed here support the hypothesis that cities throughout history share common principles of organization that self-consistently relate their socioeconomic networks to structured urban spaces. PMID:27706192

Population-Area Relationship for Medieval European Cities.

PubMed

Cesaretti, Rudolf; Lobo, José; Bettencourt, Luís M A; Ortman, Scott G; Smith, Michael E

2016-01-01

Medieval European urbanization presents a line of continuity between earlier cities and modern European urban systems. Yet, many of the spatial, political and economic features of medieval European cities were particular to the Middle Ages, and subsequently changed over the Early Modern Period and Industrial Revolution. There is a long tradition of demographic studies estimating the population sizes of medieval European cities, and comparative analyses of these data have shed much light on the long-term evolution of urban systems. However, the next step-to systematically relate the population size of these cities to their spatial and socioeconomic characteristics-has seldom been taken. This raises a series of interesting questions, as both modern and ancient cities have been observed to obey area-population relationships predicted by settlement scaling theory. To address these questions, we analyze a new dataset for the settled area and population of 173 European cities from the early fourteenth century to determine the relationship between population and settled area. To interpret this data, we develop two related models that lead to differing predictions regarding the quantitative form of the population-area relationship, depending on the level of social mixing present in these cities. Our empirical estimates of model parameters show a strong densification of cities with city population size, consistent with patterns in contemporary cities. Although social life in medieval Europe was orchestrated by hierarchical institutions (e.g., guilds, church, municipal organizations), our results show no statistically significant influence of these institutions on agglomeration effects. The similarities between the empirical patterns of settlement relating area to population observed here support the hypothesis that cities throughout history share common principles of organization that self-consistently relate their socioeconomic networks to structured urban spaces.

Adding muscle where you need it: non-uniform hypertrophy patterns in elite sprinters.

PubMed

Handsfield, G G; Knaus, K R; Fiorentino, N M; Meyer, C H; Hart, J M; Blemker, S S

2017-10-01

Sprint runners achieve much higher gait velocities and accelerations than average humans, due in part to large forces generated by their lower limb muscles. Various factors have been explored in the past to understand sprint biomechanics, but the distribution of muscle volumes in the lower limb has not been investigated in elite sprinters. In this study, we used non-Cartesian MRI to determine muscle sizes in vivo in a group of 15 NCAA Division I sprinters. Normalizing muscle sizes by body size, we compared sprinter muscles to non-sprinter muscles, calculated Z-scores to determine non-uniformly large muscles in sprinters, assessed bilateral symmetry, and assessed gender differences in sprinters' muscles. While limb musculature per height-mass was 22% greater in sprinters than in non-sprinters, individual muscles were not all uniformly larger. Hip- and knee-crossing muscles were significantly larger among sprinters (mean difference: 30%, range: 19-54%) but only one ankle-crossing muscle was significantly larger (tibialis posterior, 28%). Population-wide asymmetry was not significant in the sprint population but individual muscle asymmetries exceeded 15%. Gender differences in normalized muscle sizes were not significant. The results of this study suggest that non-uniform hypertrophy patterns, particularly large hip and knee flexors and extensors, are advantageous for fast sprinting. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Influence of individual body size and variable thresholds on the incidence of a sneaker male reproductive tactic in Atlantic salmon.

PubMed

Aubin-Horth, Nadia; Dodson, Julian J

2004-01-01

In the conditional strategy model, divergence in reproductive phenotypes depends on whether the individual's condition is above or below a genetically determined threshold. The relative contribution of the genetic and environmental components that lead to the expression of a reproductive tactic by an individual is not well understood. In the present field study, we determined when condition diverged between males that develop the mature parr phenotype and those that do not in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). We also investigated the uniformity of the threshold value in the population. We sampled mature parr and immature males at age one, of the same population at six different sites for four consecutive years. Our study provides an example of the interaction of genotype and environment on the expression of a reproductive tactic. Size was significantly greater for future mature parr than for future immature males as early as 20 days after hatching (emergence), suggesting that there may be a parental effect component in the tactic adopted, since no exogenous feeding takes place before this time. Size advantage at emergence was maintained through the next spring at age one to different degrees depending on the year, thus suggesting the presence of an environmental component of tactic expression. Our results support the contention that within the conditional strategy, the environment faced by a male and his condition at the moment of reproduction consistently predicts neither the environment faced by his offspring nor the fitness they will obtain by expressing the same tactic as their father. Furthermore, higher mean size at a site did not always translate into a higher proportion of mature parr, therefore supporting the hypothesis that thresholds vary across habitats within the same population.

Do food availability, parasitism, and stress have synergistic effects on red colobus populations living in forest fragments?

PubMed

Chapman, Colin A; Wasserman, Michael D; Gillespie, Thomas R; Speirs, Michaela L; Lawes, Michael J; Saj, Tania L; Ziegler, Toni E

2006-12-01

Identifying factors that influence animal density is a fundamental goal in ecology that has taken on new importance with the need to develop informed management plans. This is particularly the case for primates as the tropical forest that supports many species is being rapidly converted. We use a system of forest fragments adjacent to Kibale National Park, Uganda, to examine if food availability and parasite infections have synergistic affects on red colobus (Piliocolobus tephrosceles) abundance. Given that the size of primate populations can often respond slowly to environmental changes, we also examined how these factors influenced cortisol levels. To meet these objectives, we monitored gastrointestinal parasites, evaluated fecal cortisol levels, and determined changes in food availability by conducting complete tree inventories in eight fragments in 2000 and 2003. Red colobus populations declined by an average of 21% among the fragments; however, population change ranged from a 25% increase to a 57% decline. The cumulative basal area of food trees declined by an average of 29.5%; however, forest change was highly variable (a 2% gain to a 71% decline). We found that nematode prevalence averaged 58% among fragments (range 29-83%). The change in colobus population size was correlated both with food availability and a number of indices of parasite infections. A path analysis suggests that change in food availability has a strong direct effect on population size, but it also has an indirect effect via parasite infections. 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Can We Communicate with Other Generations?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mellert, Robert B.

Communicating with future generations is not merely a question of "how" to communicate, but also of "what." Our major moral responsibilities to future generations concern the size of future populations, conservation of nonrenewable resources, diversity of the gene pool, and quality of the environment. To determine our…

It's Life, but Not as We Know It.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parr, Alan

1992-01-01

Presents the game "Life91," an adaptation of Conway's "The Game of Life." Played on a hexagonal board, the game generates number patterns of population size by rules that determine cell growth and death from one generation to another. An example illustrates the process. (MDH)

Population demographics and genetic diversity in remnant and translocated populations of sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bodkin, James L.; Ballachey, Brenda E.; Cronin, M.A.; Scribner, K.T.

1999-01-01

The effects of small population size on genetic diversity and subsequent population recovery are theoretically predicted, but few empirical data are available to describe those relations. We use data from four remnant and three translocated sea otter (Enhydra lutris) populations to examine relations among magnitude and duration of minimum population size, population growth rates, and genetic variation. Metochondrial (mt)DNA haplotype diversity was correlated with the number of years at minimum population size (r = -0.741, p = 0.038) and minimum population size (r = 0.709, p = 0.054). We found no relation between population growth and haplotype diversity, altough growth was significantly greater in translocated than in remnant populations. Haplotype diversity in populations established from two sources was higher than in a population established from a single source and was higher than in the respective source populations. Haplotype frequencies in translocated populations of founding sizes of 4 and 28 differed from expected, indicating genetic drift and differential reproduction between source populations, whereas haplotype frequencies in a translocated population with a founding size of 150 did not. Relations between population demographics and genetic characteristics suggest that genetic sampling of source and translocated populations can provide valuable inferences about translocations.

Projecting the Demand for Dental Care in 2040.

PubMed

Manski, Richard J; Meyerhoefer, Chad D

2017-08-01

The purpose of this study was to provide a forward-thinking assessment of the underlying factors likely to impact trends in dental care demand and the need for dental providers in 2020, 2025, and beyond. Dental workforce trends and their likely impact on the need for dentists are a function of predicted dental care demand, which will in turn be determined by the size and characteristics of our population size, economic outlook, the state of public and private dental care insurance, trends in dental care delivery, professionally determined dental care need, and population health beliefs. Projecting rates of dental care utilization far into the future is difficult because projections must be made using historical data, and established trends may not persist if there is structural change in the future. Nonetheless, when structural change occurs, it does not typically affect all aspects of the economy, so there is value in describing the likely future impact of current trends. This article was written as part of the project "Advancing Dental Education in the 21 st Century."

Evidence for r- and K-selection in a wild bird population: a reciprocal link between ecology and evolution.

PubMed

Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Visser, Marcel E; Grøtan, Vidar; Engen, Steinar

2016-04-27

Understanding the variation in selection pressure on key life-history traits is crucial in our rapidly changing world. Density is rarely considered as a selective agent. To study its importance, we partition phenotypic selection in fluctuating environments into components representing the population growth rate at low densities and the strength of density dependence, using a new stochastic modelling framework. We analysed the number of eggs laid per season in a small song-bird, the great tit, and found balancing selection favouring large clutch sizes at small population densities and smaller clutches in years with large populations. A significant interaction between clutch size and population size in the regression for the Malthusian fitness reveals that those females producing large clutch sizes at small population sizes also are those that show the strongest reduction in fitness when population size is increased. This provides empirical support for ongoing r- and K-selection in this population, favouring phenotypes with large growth rates r at small population sizes and phenotypes with high competitive skills when populations are close to the carrying capacity K This selection causes long-term fluctuations around a stable mean clutch size caused by variation in population size, implying that r- and K-selection is an important mechanism influencing phenotypic evolution in fluctuating environments. This provides a general link between ecological dynamics and evolutionary processes, operating through a joint influence of density dependence and environmental stochasticity on fluctuations in population size. © 2016 The Author(s).

Genetic effects of habitat restoration in the Laurentian Great Lakes: an assessment of lake sturgeon origin and genetic diversity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jamie Marie Marranca,; Amy Welsh,; Roseman, Edward F.

2015-01-01

Lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) have experienced significant habitat loss, resulting in reduced population sizes. Three artificial reefs were built in the Huron-Erie corridor in the Great Lakes to replace lost spawning habitat. Genetic data were collected to determine the source and numbers of adult lake sturgeon spawning on the reefs and to determine if the founder effect resulted in reduced genetic diversity. DNA was extracted from larval tail clips and 12 microsatellite loci were amplified. Larval genotypes were then compared to 22 previously studied spawning lake sturgeon populations in the Great Lakes to determine the source of the parental population. The effective number of breeders (Nb) was calculated for each reef cohort. The larval genotypes were then compared to the source population to determine if there were any losses in genetic diversity that are indicative of the founder effect. The St. Clair and Detroit River adult populations were found to be the source parental population for the larvae collected on all three artificial reefs. There were large numbers of contributing adults relative to the number of sampled larvae. There was no significant difference between levels of genetic diversity in the source population and larval samples from the artificial reefs; however, there is some evidence for a genetic bottleneck in the reef populations likely due to the founder effect. Habitat restoration in the Huron-Erie corridor is likely resulting in increased habitat for the large lake sturgeon population in the system and in maintenance of the population's genetic diversity.

Determinants of genetic structure in a nonequilibrium metapopulation of the plant Silene latifolia.

PubMed

Fields, Peter D; Taylor, Douglas R

2014-01-01

Population genetic differentiation will be influenced by the demographic history of populations, opportunities for migration among neighboring demes and founder effects associated with repeated extinction and recolonization. In natural populations, these factors are expected to interact with each other and their magnitudes will vary depending on the spatial distribution and age structure of local demes. Although each of these effects has been individually identified as important in structuring genetic variance, their relative magnitude is seldom estimated in nature. We conducted a population genetic analysis in a metapopulation of the angiosperm, Silene latifolia, from which we had more than 20 years of data on the spatial distribution, demographic history, and extinction and colonization of demes. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to disentangle which features of the populations contributed to among population variation in allele frequencies, including the magnitude and direction of their effects. We show that population age, long-term size and degree of connectivity all combine to affect the distribution of genetic variance; small, recently-founded, isolated populations contributed most to increase FST in the metapopulation. However, the effects of population size and population age are best understood as being modulated through the effects of connectivity to other extant populations, i.e. FST diminishes as populations age, but at a rate that depends how isolated the population is. These spatial and temporal correlates of population structure give insight into how migration, founder effect and within-deme genetic drift have combined to enhance and restrict genetic divergence in a natural metapopulation.

Spatial extent of analysis influences observed patterns of population genetic structure in a widespread darter species (Percidae)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Argentina, Jane E.; Angermeier, Paul L.; Hallerman, Eric M.; Welsh, Stuart A.

2018-01-01

Connectivity among stream fish populations allows for exchange of genetic material and helps maintain genetic diversity, adaptive potential and population stability over time. Changes in species demographics and population connectivity have the potential to permanently alter the genetic patterns of stream fish, although these changes through space and time are variable and understudied in small‐bodied freshwater fish.As a spatially widespread, common species of benthic freshwater fish, the variegate darter (Etheostoma variatum) is a model species for documenting how patterns of genetic structure and diversity respond to increasing isolation due to large dams and how scale of study may shape our understanding of these patterns. We sampled variegate darters from 34 sites across their range in the North American Ohio River basin and examined how patterns of genetic structure and diversity within and between populations responded to historical population changes and dams within and between populations.Spatial scale and configuration of genetic structure varied across the eight identified populations, from tributaries within a watershed, to a single watershed, to multiple watersheds that encompass Ohio River mainstem habitats. This multiwatershed pattern of population structuring suggests genetic dispersal across large distances was and may continue to be common, although some populations remain isolated despite no apparent structural dispersal barriers. Populations with low effective population sizes and evidence of past population bottlenecks showed low allelic richness, but diversity patterns were not related to watershed size, a surrogate for habitat availability. Pairwise genetic differentiation (FST) increased with fluvial distance and was related to both historic and contemporary processes. Genetic diversity changes were influenced by underlying population size and stability, and while instream barriers were not strong determinants of genetic structuring or loss of genetic diversity, they reduce population connectivity and may impact long‐term population persistence.The broad spatial scale of this study demonstrated the large spatial extent of some variegate darter populations and indicated that dispersal is more extensive than expected given the movement patterns typically observed for small‐bodied, benthic fish. Dam impacts depended on underlying population size and stability, with larger populations more resilient to genetic drift and allelic richness loss than smaller populations.Other darters that inhabit large river habitats may show similar patterns in landscape‐scale studies, and large river barriers may impact populations of small‐bodied fish more than previously expected. Estimation of dispersal rates and behaviours is critical to conservation of imperilled riverine species such as darters.

Demographic threats to the sustainability of Brazil nut exploitation.

PubMed

Peres, Carlos A; Baider, Claudia; Zuidema, Pieter A; Wadt, Lúcia H O; Kainer, Karen A; Gomes-Silva, Daisy A P; Salomão, Rafael P; Simões, Luciana L; Franciosi, Eduardo R N; Cornejo Valverde, Fernando; Gribel, Rogério; Shepard, Glenn H; Kanashiro, Milton; Coventry, Peter; Yu, Douglas W; Watkinson, Andrew R; Freckleton, Robert P

2003-12-19

A comparative analysis of 23 populations of the Brazil nut tree (Bertholletia excelsa) across the Brazilian, Peruvian, and Bolivian Amazon shows that the history and intensity of Brazil nut exploitation are major determinants of population size structure. Populations subjected to persistent levels of harvest lack juvenile trees less than 60 centimeters in diameter at breast height; only populations with a history of either light or recent exploitation contain large numbers of juvenile trees. A harvesting model confirms that intensive exploitation levels over the past century are such that juvenile recruitment is insufficient to maintain populations over the long term. Without management, intensively harvested populations will succumb to a process of senescence and demographic collapse, threatening this cornerstone of the Amazonian extractive economy.

Is Markhamia lutea's abundance determined by animal foraging?

PubMed

Chapman, Colin A; Bonnell, Tyler R; Sengupta, Raja; Goldberg, Tony L; Rothman, Jessica M

2013-11-15

Understanding the determinants of tropical forest tree richness and spatial distribution is a central goal of forest ecology; however, the role of herbivorous mammals has received little attention. Here we explore the potential for red colobus monkeys ( Procolobus rufomitratus ) to influence the abundance of Markhamia lutea trees in a tropical forest by feeding extensively on the tree's flowers, such that this tree population is not able to regularly set fruit. Using 14 years of data from Kibale National Park, Uganda, we quantify M. lutea flower and fruit production. Similarly, using 21 years of data, we quantify temporal changes in the abundance of stems in size classes from 1 m tall and above. Our analyses demonstrate that M. lutea is rarely able to produce fruit and that this corresponds to a general decline in its abundance across all size classes. Moreover, using 7 years of feeding records, we demonstrate that red colobus feed on M. lutea , consuming large amounts of leaf and flower buds whenever they were available, suggesting that this behavior limits fruit production. Therefore, we suggest that red colobus are presently important for structuring the distribution and abundance of M. lutea in Kibale. This dynamic raises the intriguing question of how a large M. lutea population was able to originally establish. There is no evidence of a change in red colobus population size; however, if this old-growth forest is in a non-equilibrium state, M. lutea may have become established when red colobus ate a different diet.

A New Population Estimate for the Florida Scrub Jay on Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Breininger, David R.

1989-01-01

The variable circular plot method was used to sample avifauna within different vegetation types determined from aerial imagery. The Florida Scrub Jay (Aphelocoma coerulescens coerulescens) population was estimated to range between 1,415 and 3,603 birds. Approximately half of the scrub and slash pine habitat appeared to be unused by Florida Scrub Jay, probably because the slash pine cover was too dense or the oak cover was too sparse. Results from the study suggest that the entire state population may be much lower than believed because the size of two of the three largest populations may have been overestimated.

Killer whale nuclear genome and mtDNA reveal widespread population bottleneck during the last glacial maximum.

PubMed

Moura, Andre E; Janse van Rensburg, Charlene; Pilot, Malgorzata; Tehrani, Arman; Best, Peter B; Thornton, Meredith; Plön, Stephanie; de Bruyn, P J Nico; Worley, Kim C; Gibbs, Richard A; Dahlheim, Marilyn E; Hoelzel, Alan Rus

2014-05-01

Ecosystem function and resilience is determined by the interactions and independent contributions of individual species. Apex predators play a disproportionately determinant role through their influence and dependence on the dynamics of prey species. Their demographic fluctuations are thus likely to reflect changes in their respective ecological communities and habitat. Here, we investigate the historical population dynamics of the killer whale based on draft nuclear genome data for the Northern Hemisphere and mtDNA data worldwide. We infer a relatively stable population size throughout most of the Pleistocene, followed by an order of magnitude decline and bottleneck during the Weichselian glacial period. Global mtDNA data indicate that while most populations declined, at least one population retained diversity in a stable, productive ecosystem off southern Africa. We conclude that environmental changes during the last glacial period promoted the decline of a top ocean predator, that these events contributed to the pattern of diversity among extant populations, and that the relatively high diversity of a population currently in productive, stable habitat off South Africa suggests a role for ocean productivity in the widespread decline.

Population status of chimpanzees in the Masito-Ugalla Ecosystem, Tanzania.

PubMed

Piel, Alex K; Cohen, Naomi; Kamenya, Shadrack; Ndimuligo, Sood A; Pintea, Lilian; Stewart, Fiona A

2015-10-01

More than 75 percent of Tanzania's chimpanzees live at low densities on land outside national parks. Chimpanzees are one of the key conservation targets in the region and long-term monitoring of these populations is essential for assessing the overall status of ecosystem health and the success of implemented conservation strategies. We aimed to assess change in chimpanzee density within the Masito-Ugalla Ecosystem (MUE) by comparing results of re-walking the same line transects in 2007 and 2014. We further used published remote sensing data derived from Landsat satellites to assess forest cover change within a 5 km buffer of these transects over that same period. We detected no statistically significant decline in chimpanzee density across the surveyed areas of MUE between 2007 and 2014, although the overall mean density of chimpanzees declined from 0.09 individuals/km(2) in 2007 to 0.05 individuals/km(2) in 2014. Whether this change is biologically meaningful cannot be determined due to small sample sizes and large, entirely overlapping error margins. It is therefore possible that the MUE chimpanzee population has been stable over this period and indeed in some areas (Issa Valley, Mkanga, Kamkulu) even showed an increase in chimpanzee density. Variation in chimpanzee habitat preference for ranging or nesting could explain variation in density at some of the survey sites between 2007 and 2014. We also found a relationship between increasing habitat loss and lower mean chimpanzee density. Future surveys will need to ensure a larger sample size, broader geographic effort, and random survey design, to more precisely determine trends in MUE chimpanzee density and population size over time. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Coagulation-Fragmentation Model for Animal Group-Size Statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Degond, Pierre; Liu, Jian-Guo; Pego, Robert L.

2017-04-01

We study coagulation-fragmentation equations inspired by a simple model proposed in fisheries science to explain data for the size distribution of schools of pelagic fish. Although the equations lack detailed balance and admit no H-theorem, we are able to develop a rather complete description of equilibrium profiles and large-time behavior, based on recent developments in complex function theory for Bernstein and Pick functions. In the large-population continuum limit, a scaling-invariant regime is reached in which all equilibria are determined by a single scaling profile. This universal profile exhibits power-law behavior crossing over from exponent -2/3 for small size to -3/2 for large size, with an exponential cutoff.

Stochastic Switching Induced Adaptation in a Starved Escherichia coli Population

PubMed Central

Ito, Yoichiro; Ying, Bei-Wen; Yomo, Tetsuya

2011-01-01

Population adaptation can be determined by stochastic switching in living cells. To examine how stochastic switching contributes to the fate decision for a population under severe stress, we constructed an Escherichia coli strain crucially dependent on the expression of a rewired gene. The gene essential for tryptophan biosynthesis, trpC, was removed from the native regulatory unit, the Trp operon, and placed under the extraneous control of the lactose utilisation network. Bistability of the network provided the cells two discrete phenotypes: the induced and suppressed level of trpC. The two phenotypes permitted the cells to grow or not, respectively, under conditions of tryptophan depletion. We found that stochastic switching between the two states allowed the initially suppressed cells to form a new population with induced trpC in response to tryptophan starvation. However, the frequency of the transition from suppressed to induced state dropped off dramatically in the starved population, in comparison to that in the nourished population. This reduced switching rate was compensated by increasing the initial population size, which probably provided the cell population more chances to wait for the rarely appearing fit cells from the unfit cells. Taken together, adaptation of a starved bacterial population because of stochasticity in the gene rewired from the ancient regulon was experimentally confirmed, and the nutritional status and the population size played a great role in stochastic adaptation. PMID:21931628

Stock assessment of fishery target species in Lake Koka, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Tesfaye, Gashaw; Wolff, Matthias

2015-09-01

Effective management is essential for small-scale fisheries to continue providing food and livelihoods for households, particularly in developing countries where other options are often limited. Studies on the population dynamics and stock assessment on fishery target species are thus imperative to sustain their fisheries and the benefits for the society. In Lake Koka (Ethiopia), very little is known about the vital population parameters and exploitation status of the fishery target species: tilapia Oreochromis niloticus, common carp Cyprinus carpio and catfish Clarias gariepinus. Our study, therefore, aimed at determining the vital population parameters and assessing the status of these target species in Lake Koka using length frequency data collected quarterly from commercial catches from 2007-2012. A total of 20,097 fish specimens (distributed as 7,933 tilapia, 6,025 catfish and 6,139 common carp) were measured for the analysis. Von Bertalarffy growth parameters and their confidence intervals were determined from modal progression analysis using ELEFAN I and applying the jackknife technique. Mortality parameters were determined from length-converted catch curves and empirical models. The exploitation status of these target species were then assessed by computing exploitation rates (E) from mortality parameters as well as from size indicators i.e., assessing the size distribution of fish catches relative to the size at maturity (Lm), the size that provides maximum cohort biomass (Lopt) and the abundance of mega-spawners. The mean value of growth parameters L∞, K and the growth performance index ø' were 44.5 cm, 0.41/year and 2.90 for O. niloticus, 74.1 cm, 0.28/year and 3.19 for C. carpio and 121.9 cm, 0.16/year and 3.36 for C. gariepinus, respectively. The 95 % confidence intervals of the estimates were also computed. Total mortality (Z) estimates were 1.47, 0.83 and 0.72/year for O. niloticus, C. carpio and C. gariepinus, respectively. Our study suggest that O. niloticus is in a healthy state, while C. gariepinus show signs of growth overfishing (when both exploitation rate (E) and size indicators were considered). In case of C. carpio, the low exploitation rate encountered would point to underfishing, while the size indicators of the catches would suggest that too small fish are harvested leading to growth overfishing. We concluded that fisheries production in Lake Koka could be enhanced by increasing E toward optimum level of exploitation (Eopt) for the underexploited C. carpio and by increasing the size at first capture (Lc) toward the Lopt, range for all target species.

Role of women in population.

PubMed

Srivasdava, T N

Population control through voluntary adoption of family planning is emphasized in India's family planning policy. The 1981 census figures have not shown an arresting rate of population growth. The social and attitudinal barriers to promoting the concept of the small family are great where men and women are not exposed to new ideas. The target groups for family planning include the 75% of the population residing in rural areas. The literacy rate for women in rural areas in 1971 was 18.69. Motivation is difficult unless supported by systematic education. Women play an important role in the determination of family size. Participation in social and economic activities may help to promote small family size by meeting the necessary conditions of emotional and social fulfillment of women outside the family context. Adquate education for women in rural as well as urban areas can elucidate alternatives to childbearing and enable women to appreciate the need for and use of contraception. Employment opportunities enhance women's familial decision making power through the acquisition of an alternative social and economic role, which may help them to adopt birth control practices, space their children, and limit family size. Motivational schemes may change the attitudes of a small number of families, however, greater gains could be achieved through an investment in women's education and employment.

Tailoring sub-micron PLGA particle release profiles via centrifugal fractioning

PubMed Central

Dutta, Dipankar; Salifu, Mariama; Sirianni, Rachael W.; Stabenfeldt, Sarah E.

2016-01-01

Poly(D,L-lactic-co-glycolic) acid (PLGA)-based submicron particles are uniquely posed to overcome limitations of conventional drug delivery systems. However, tailoring cargo/payload release profiles from PLGA micro/nanoparticles typically requires optimization of the multi-parameter formulation, where small changes may cause drastic shifts in the resulting release profiles. In this study, we aimed to establish whether refining the average diameter of submicron particle populations after formulation alters protein release profiles. PLGA particles were first produced via double emulsion-solvent evaporation method to encapsulate bovine serum albumin. Particles were then subjected to centrifugal fractioning protocols varying in both spin time and force to determine encapsulation efficiency and release profile of differently sized populations that originated from a single batch. We found the average particle diameter was related to marked alterations in encapsulation efficiencies (range: 36.4–49.4%), burst release (range: 15.8–49.1%), and time for total cargo release (range: 38–78 days). Our data corroborate previous reports relating PLGA particle size with such release characteristics, however, this is the first study, to our knowledge, to directly compare particle population size while holding all formulation parameters constant. In summary, centrifugal fractioning to selectively control the population distribution of sub-micron PLGA particles represents a feasible tool to tailor release characteristics. PMID:26517011

Dynamics of initial colonization of nonconserved perennial ryegrass by anaerobic fungi in the bovine rumen.

PubMed

Edwards, Joan E; Kingston-Smith, Alison H; Jimenez, Hugo R; Huws, Sharon A; Skøt, Kirsten P; Griffith, Gareth W; McEwan, Neil R; Theodorou, Michael K

2008-12-01

Anaerobic fungi (Neocallimastigales) are active degraders of fibrous plant material in the rumen. However, only limited information is available relating to how quickly they colonize ingested feed particles. The aim of this study was to determine the dynamics of initial colonization of forage by anaerobic fungi in the rumen and the impact of different postsampling wash procedures used to remove loosely associated microorganisms. Neocallimastigales-specific molecular techniques were optimized to ensure maximal coverage before application to assess the population size (quantitative PCR) and composition (automated ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis) of the colonizing anaerobic fungi. Colonization of perennial ryegrass (PRG) was evident within 5 min, with no consistent effect of time or wash procedure on fungal population composition. Wash procedure had no effect on population size unlike time, which had a significant effect. Colonizing fungal population size continued to increase over the incubation period after an initial lag of c. 4 min. This dynamic differs from that reported previously for rumen bacteria, where substantial colonization of PRG occurred within 5 min. The observed delay in colonization of plant material by anaerobic fungi is suggested to be primarily mediated by the time taken for fungal zoospores to locate, attach and encyst on plant material.

Influence of behavior and mating success on brood-specific contribution to fish recruitment in ponds.

PubMed

Parkos, Joseph J; Wahl, David H; Philipp, David P

2011-10-01

One source of uncertainty in predicting the response of populations to exploitation is individual differences within a population in both vulnerability to capture and contribution to population renewal. For species with parental care, individuals engaged in nesting behavior are often targeted for exploitation, but predicting outcomes of this nonrandom vulnerability will depend in part on an understanding of how parental traits are related to potential for brood contribution to the population. Variation in brood-specific contribution to recruitment of largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides), a fish species with extended parental care, was quantified to determine if differences in mating success, parental care behaviors, and timing of reproduction influenced offspring recruitment. Dependence of these relationships on brood predation was tested in communities that differed in the presence of bluegill, Lepomis macrochirus, an important nest predator. Daily snorkel surveys were conducted in experimental ponds during spring to monitor male spawning and parental care behaviors in populations of largemouth bass. Tissue samples collected from larvae in nests were used to develop brood-specific DNA fingerprints for determining nest origins of fall recruits. Largemouth bass spawning period in bluegill ponds was longer and more variable in duration, with lower, more variable mating success, than in ponds without bluegill. In all populations, only one or two broods provided the majority of recruits, and these were broods produced during the earliest days of spawning by the oldest, largest males. In bluegill ponds, brood contribution from earliest nests also increased with brood size. Earliest nesters were the oldest males, and recruits from these nests were often above average in body size. Offspring needed to be guarded to at least swim-up larval stage to contribute any recruits. Termination of parental protection before offspring were free swimming mainly occurred with broods guarded by smaller males in ponds with brood predators. These age- and size-specific differences in timing of spawning and duration of parental care are consistent with influences of residual reproductive value and energetic constraints on reproductive behavior. Furthermore, these patterns of individual contribution to recruitment imply that fisheries that selectively target either nesting individuals or larger, older males could potentially decrease recruitment at the population scale.

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

PubMed

Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

2016-06-01

The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current predictions based on mean temperature anomalies are relatively conservative and it is better to apply stochastic tools to resolve complex responses to climate change while taking natural variability into account. In summary, we propose a modeling framework capable of determining distinct intra-annual temperature patterns leading to large or small population sizes, for pest risk assessment and management planning of both natural and agricultural ecosystems.

Shifts in frog size and phenology: Testing predictions of climate change on a widespread anuran using data from prior to rapid climate warming.

PubMed

Sheridan, Jennifer A; Caruso, Nicholas M; Apodaca, Joseph J; Rissler, Leslie J

2018-01-01

Changes in body size and breeding phenology have been identified as two major ecological consequences of climate change, yet it remains unclear whether climate acts directly or indirectly on these variables. To better understand the relationship between climate and ecological changes, it is necessary to determine environmental predictors of both size and phenology using data from prior to the onset of rapid climate warming, and then to examine spatially explicit changes in climate, size, and phenology, not just general spatial and temporal trends. We used 100 years of natural history collection data for the wood frog, Lithobates sylvaticus with a range >9 million km 2 , and spatially explicit environmental data to determine the best predictors of size and phenology prior to rapid climate warming (1901-1960). We then tested how closely size and phenology changes predicted by those environmental variables reflected actual changes from 1961 to 2000. Size, phenology, and climate all changed as expected (smaller, earlier, and warmer, respectively) at broad spatial scales across the entire study range. However, while spatially explicit changes in climate variables accurately predicted changes in phenology, they did not accurately predict size changes during recent climate change (1961-2000), contrary to expectations from numerous recent studies. Our results suggest that changes in climate are directly linked to observed phenological shifts. However, the mechanisms driving observed body size changes are yet to be determined, given the less straightforward relationship between size and climate factors examined in this study. We recommend that caution be used in "space-for-time" studies where measures of a species' traits at lower latitudes or elevations are considered representative of those under future projected climate conditions. Future studies should aim to determine mechanisms driving trends in phenology and body size, as well as the impact of climate on population density, which may influence body size.

Spatial genetic structure in continuous and fragmented populations of Pinus pinaster Aiton.

PubMed

De-Lucas, A I; González-Martínez, S C; Vendramin, G G; Hidalgo, E; Heuertz, M

2009-11-01

Habitat fragmentation, i.e., the reduction of populations into small isolated remnants, is expected to increase spatial genetic structure (SGS) in plant populations through nonrandom mating, lower population densities and potential aggregation of reproductive individuals. We investigated the effects of population size reduction and genetic isolation on SGS in maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton) using a combined experimental and simulation approach. Maritime pine is a wind-pollinated conifer which has a scattered distribution in the Iberian Peninsula as a result of forest fires and habitat fragmentation. Five highly polymorphic nuclear microsatellites were genotyped in a total of 394 individuals from two population pairs from the Iberian Peninsula, formed by one continuous and one fragmented population each. In agreement with predictions, SGS was significant and stronger in fragments (Sp = 0.020 and Sp = 0.026) than in continuous populations, where significant SGS was detected for one population only (Sp = 0.010). Simulations suggested that under fat-tailed dispersal, small population size is a stronger determinant of SGS than genetic isolation, while under normal dispersal, genetic isolation has a stronger effect. SGS was always stronger in real populations than in simulations, except if unrealistically narrow dispersal and/or high variance of reproductive success were modelled (even when accounting for potential overestimation of SGS in real populations as a result of short-distance sampling). This suggests that factors such as nonrandom mating or selection not considered in the simulations were additionally operating on SGS in Iberian maritime pine populations.

Annual survival rate estimate of satellite transmitter–marked eastern population greater sandhill cranes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fronczak, David L.; Andersen, David E.; Hanna, Everett E.; Cooper, Thomas R.

2015-01-01

Several surveys have documented the increasing population size and geographic distribution of Eastern Population greater sandhill cranes Grus canadensis tabida since the 1960s. Sport hunting of this population of sandhill cranes started in 2012 following the provisions of the Eastern Population Sandhill Crane Management Plan. However, there are currently no published estimates of Eastern Population sandhill crane survival rate that can be used to inform harvest management. As part of two studies of Eastern Population sandhill crane migration, we deployed solar-powered global positioning system platform transmitting terminals on Eastern Population sandhill cranes (n  =  42) at key concentration areas from 2009 to 2012. We estimated an annual survival rate for Eastern Population sandhill cranes from data resulting from monitoring these cranes by using the known-fates model in the MARK program. Estimated annual survival rate for adult Eastern Population sandhill cranes was 0.950 (95% confidence interval  =  0.885–0.979) during December 2009–August 2014. All fatalities (n  =  5) occurred after spring migration in late spring and early summer. We were unable to determine cause of death for crane fatalities in our study. Our survival rate estimate will be useful when combined with other population parameters such as the population index derived from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service fall survey, harvest, and recruitment rates to assess the effects of harvest on population size and trend and evaluate the effectiveness of management strategies.

The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot.

PubMed

Milne, Robyn; Cunningham, Susan J; Lee, Alan T K; Smit, Ben

2015-01-01

We investigated whether observed avian range contractions and population declines in the Fynbos biome of South Africa were mechanistically linked to recent climate warming. We aimed to determine whether there were correlations between preferred temperature envelope, or changes in temperature within species' ranges, and recent changes in range and population size, for 12 Fynbos-resident bird species, including six that are endemic to the biome. We then measured the physiological responses of each species at air temperatures ranging from 24 to 42°C to determine whether physiological thermal thresholds could provide a mechanistic explanation for observed population trends. Our data show that Fynbos-endemic species occupying the coolest regions experienced the greatest recent reductions in range and population size (>30% range reduction between 1991 and the present). In addition, species experiencing the largest increases in air temperature within their ranges showed the greatest declines. However, evidence for a physiological mechanistic link between warming and population declines was equivocal, with only the larger species showing low thermal thresholds for their body mass, compared with other birds globally. In addition, some species appear more vulnerable than others to air temperatures in their ranges above physiological thermal thresholds. Of these, the high-altitude specialist Cape rockjumper (Chaetops frenatus) seems most at risk from climate warming. This species showed: (i) the lowest threshold for increasing evaporative water loss at high temperatures; and (ii) population declines specifically in those regions of its range recording significant warming trends. Our findings suggest that caution must be taken when attributing causality explicitly to thermal stress, even when population trends are clearly correlated with rates of warming. Studies explicitly investigating the mechanisms underlying such correlations will be key to appropriate conservation planning.

The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot

PubMed Central

Milne, Robyn; Cunningham, Susan J; Lee, Alan T K

2015-01-01

Abstract We investigated whether observed avian range contractions and population declines in the Fynbos biome of South Africa were mechanistically linked to recent climate warming. We aimed to determine whether there were correlations between preferred temperature envelope, or changes in temperature within species' ranges, and recent changes in range and population size, for 12 Fynbos-resident bird species, including six that are endemic to the biome. We then measured the physiological responses of each species at air temperatures ranging from 24 to 42°C to determine whether physiological thermal thresholds could provide a mechanistic explanation for observed population trends. Our data show that Fynbos-endemic species occupying the coolest regions experienced the greatest recent reductions in range and population size (>30% range reduction between 1991 and the present). In addition, species experiencing the largest increases in air temperature within their ranges showed the greatest declines. However, evidence for a physiological mechanistic link between warming and population declines was equivocal, with only the larger species showing low thermal thresholds for their body mass, compared with other birds globally. In addition, some species appear more vulnerable than others to air temperatures in their ranges above physiological thermal thresholds. Of these, the high-altitude specialist Cape rockjumper (Chaetops frenatus) seems most at risk from climate warming. This species showed: (i) the lowest threshold for increasing evaporative water loss at high temperatures; and (ii) population declines specifically in those regions of its range recording significant warming trends. Our findings suggest that caution must be taken when attributing causality explicitly to thermal stress, even when population trends are clearly correlated with rates of warming. Studies explicitly investigating the mechanisms underlying such correlations will be key to appropriate conservation planning. PMID:27293732

On the absence of a correlation between population size and 'toolkit size' in ethnographic hunter-gatherers.

PubMed

Aoki, Kenichi

2018-04-05

In apparent contradiction to the theoretically predicted effect of population size on the quality/quantity of material culture, statistical analyses on ethnographic hunter-gatherers have shown an absence of correlation between population size and toolkit size. This has sparked a heated, if sometimes tangential, debate as to the usefulness of the theoretical models and as to what modes of cultural transmission humans are capable of and hunter-gatherers rely on. I review the directly relevant theoretical literature and argue that much of the confusion is caused by a mismatch between the theoretical variable and the empirical observable. I then confirm that a model incorporating the appropriate variable does predict a positive association between population size and toolkit size for random oblique, vertical, best-of- K , conformist, anticonformist, success bias and one-to-many cultural transmission, with the caveat that for all populations sampled, the population size has remained constant and toolkit size has reached the equilibrium for this population size. Finally, I suggest three theoretical scenarios, two of them involving variable population size, that would attenuate or eliminate this association and hence help to explain the empirical absence of correlation.This article is part of the theme issue 'Bridging cultural gaps: interdisciplinary studies in human cultural evolution'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Population size is weakly related to quantitative genetic variation and trait differentiation in a stream fish.

PubMed

Wood, Jacquelyn L A; Tezel, Defne; Joyal, Destin; Fraser, Dylan J

2015-09-01

How population size influences quantitative genetic variation and differentiation among natural, fragmented populations remains unresolved. Small, isolated populations might occupy poor quality habitats and lose genetic variation more rapidly due to genetic drift than large populations. Genetic drift might furthermore overcome selection as population size decreases. Collectively, this might result in directional changes in additive genetic variation (VA ) and trait differentiation (QST ) from small to large population size. Alternatively, small populations might exhibit larger variation in VA and QST if habitat fragmentation increases variability in habitat types. We explored these alternatives by investigating VA and QST using nine fragmented populations of brook trout varying 50-fold in census size N (179-8416) and 10-fold in effective number of breeders, Nb (18-135). Across 15 traits, no evidence was found for consistent differences in VA and QST with population size and almost no evidence for increased variability of VA or QST estimates at small population size. This suggests that (i) small populations of some species may retain adaptive potential according to commonly adopted quantitative genetic measures and (ii) populations of varying sizes experience a variety of environmental conditions in nature, however extremely large studies are likely required before any firm conclusions can be made. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Making It Count: Improving Estimates of the Size of Transgender and Gender Nonconforming Populations.

PubMed

Deutsch, Madeline B

2016-06-01

An accurate estimate of the number of transgender and gender nonconforming people is essential to inform policy and funding priorities and decisions. Historical reports of population sizes of 1 in 4000 to 1 in 50,000 have been based on clinical populations and likely underestimate the size of the transgender population. More recent population-based studies have found a 10- to 100-fold increase in population size. Studies that estimate population size should be population based, employ the two-step method to allow for collection of both gender identity and sex assigned at birth, and include measures to capture the range of transgender people with nonbinary gender identities.

45 CFR 1620.5 - Annual review.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... considered in determining whether the recipient's priorities should be changed: (1) The extent to which the objectives of the recipient's priorities have been accomplished; (2) Changes in the resources of the recipient; (3) Changes in the size, distribution, or needs of the eligible client population; and (4) The...

Double-observer approach to estimating egg mass abundance of vernal pool breeding amphibians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, E.H.C.; Jung, R.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

2005-01-01

Interest in seasonally flooded pools, and the status of associated amphibian populations, has initiated programs in the northeastern United States to document and monitor these habitats. Counting egg masses is an effective way to determine the population size of pool-breeding amphibians, such as wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) and spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum). However, bias is associated with counts if egg masses are missed. Counts unadjusted for the proportion missed (i.e., without adjustment for detection probability) could lead to false assessments of population trends. We used a dependent double-observer method in 2002-2003 to estimate numbers of wood frog and spotted salamander egg masses at seasonal forest pools in 13 National Wildlife Refuges, 1 National Park, 1 National Seashore, and 1 State Park in the northeastern United States. We calculated detection probabilities for egg masses and examined whether detection probabilities varied by species, observers, pools, and in relation to pool characteristics (pool area, pool maximum depth, within-pool vegetation). For the 2 years, model selection indicated that no consistent set of variables explained the variation in data sets from individual Refuges and Parks. Because our results indicated that egg mass detection probabilities vary spatially and temporally, we conclude that it is essential to use estimation procedures, such as double-observer methods with egg mass surveys, to determine population sizes and trends of these species.

Spatial dynamics of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England, Wales and the United States.

PubMed

Eggo, Rosalind M; Cauchemez, Simon; Ferguson, Neil M

2011-02-06

There is still limited understanding of key determinants of spatial spread of influenza. The 1918 pandemic provides an opportunity to elucidate spatial determinants of spread on a large scale. To better characterize the spread of the 1918 major wave, we fitted a range of city-to-city transmission models to mortality data collected for 246 population centres in England and Wales and 47 cities in the US. Using a gravity model for city-to-city contacts, we explored the effect of population size and distance on the spread of disease and tested assumptions regarding density dependence in connectivity between cities. We employed Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate parameters of the model for population, infectivity, distance and density dependence. We inferred the most likely transmission trees for both countries. For England and Wales, a model that estimated the degree of density dependence in connectivity between cities was preferable by deviance information criterion comparison. Early in the major wave, long distance infective interactions predominated, with local infection events more likely as the epidemic became widespread. For the US, with fewer more widely dispersed cities, statistical power was lacking to estimate population size dependence or the degree of density dependence, with the preferred model depending on distance only. We find that parameters estimated from the England and Wales dataset can be applied to the US data with no likelihood penalty.

Spatial dynamics of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England, Wales and the United States

PubMed Central

Eggo, Rosalind M.; Cauchemez, Simon; Ferguson, Neil M.

2011-01-01

There is still limited understanding of key determinants of spatial spread of influenza. The 1918 pandemic provides an opportunity to elucidate spatial determinants of spread on a large scale. To better characterize the spread of the 1918 major wave, we fitted a range of city-to-city transmission models to mortality data collected for 246 population centres in England and Wales and 47 cities in the US. Using a gravity model for city-to-city contacts, we explored the effect of population size and distance on the spread of disease and tested assumptions regarding density dependence in connectivity between cities. We employed Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate parameters of the model for population, infectivity, distance and density dependence. We inferred the most likely transmission trees for both countries. For England and Wales, a model that estimated the degree of density dependence in connectivity between cities was preferable by deviance information criterion comparison. Early in the major wave, long distance infective interactions predominated, with local infection events more likely as the epidemic became widespread. For the US, with fewer more widely dispersed cities, statistical power was lacking to estimate population size dependence or the degree of density dependence, with the preferred model depending on distance only. We find that parameters estimated from the England and Wales dataset can be applied to the US data with no likelihood penalty. PMID:20573630

Florida Career and Technology Education: A Comparative Analysis of CTE Program Participants as a Percentage of Total High School Population for the State of Florida

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Serra, Francis

2013-01-01

This quantitative study was designed to analyze the percentage of students pursuing selected Career and Technical Education (CTE) vocational courses in schools throughout the State of Florida and to determine if there is a relationship to school district size during school year 2008-2009. The study sought to determine if smaller districts are more…

Design and optimization of production parameters for boric acid crystals with the crystallization process in an MSMPR crystallizer using FBRM® and PVM® technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kutluay, Sinan; Şahin, Ömer; Ceyhan, A. Abdullah; İzgi, M. Sait

2017-06-01

In crystallization studies, newly developed technologies, such as Focused Beam Reflectance Measurement (FBRM) and Particle Vision and Measurement (PVM) are applied for determining on-line monitoring of a representation of the Chord Length Distribution (CLD) and observe the photographs of crystals respectively; moreover recently they are widely used. Properly installed, the FBRM ensures on-line determination of the CLD, which is statistically associated to the Crystal Size Distribution (CSD). In industrial crystallization, CSD and mean crystal size as well as external habit and internal structure are important characteristics for further use of the crystals. In this paper, the effect of residence time, stirring speed, feeding rate, supersaturation level and the polyelectrolytes such as anionic polyacrylamide (APAM) and non-ionic polyacrylamide (NPAM) on the CLD as well as the shape of boric acid crystals were investigated by using the FBRM G600 and the PVM V819 probes respectively in an MSMPR (Mixed Suspension Mixed Product Removal) crystallizer. The CSD and kinetic data were determined experimentally using continuous MSMPR crystallizer running at steady state. The population density of nuclei, the nucleation rate and the growth rate were determined from the experimental population balance distribution when the steady state was reached.

The use of sequential mark-release-recapture experiments to estimate population size, survival and dispersal of male mosquitoes of the  Anopheles gambiae complex in Bana, a west African humid savannah village.

PubMed

Epopa, Patric Stephane; Millogo, Abdoul Azize; Collins, Catherine Matilda; North, Ace; Tripet, Frederic; Benedict, Mark Quentin; Diabate, Abdoulaye

2017-08-07

Vector control is a major component of the malaria control strategy. The increasing spread of insecticide resistance has encouraged the development of new tools such as genetic control which use releases of modified male mosquitoes. The use of male mosquitoes as part of a control strategy requires an improved understanding of male mosquito biology, including the factors influencing their survival and dispersal, as well as the ability to accurately estimate the size of a target mosquito population. This study was designed to determine the seasonal variation in population size via repeated mark-release-recapture experiments and to estimate the survival and dispersal of male mosquitoes of the Anopheles gambiae complex in a small west African village. Mark-release-recapture experiments were carried out in Bana Village over two consecutive years, during the wet and the dry seasons. For each experiment, around 5000 (3407-5273) adult male Anopheles coluzzii mosquitoes were marked using three different colour dye powders (red, blue and green) and released in three different locations in the village (centre, edge and outside). Mosquitoes were recaptured at sites spread over the village for seven consecutive days following the releases. Three different capture methods were used: clay pots, pyrethroid spray catches and swarm sampling. Swarm sampling was the most productive method for recapturing male mosquitoes in the field. Population size and survival were estimated by Bayesian analyses of the Fisher-Ford model, revealing an about 10-fold increase in population size estimates between the end of dry season (10,000-50,000) to the wet season (100,000-500,000). There were no detectable seasonal effects on mosquito survival, suggesting that factors other than weather may play an important role. Mosquito dispersal ranged from 40 to 549 m over the seven days of each study and was not influenced by the season, but mainly by the release location, which explained more than 44% of the variance in net dispersal distance. This study clearly shows that male-based MRR experiments can be used to estimate some parameters of wild male populations such as population size, survival, and dispersal and to estimate the spatial patterns of movement in a given locality.

Size of age-0 crappies (Pomoxis spp.) relative to reservoir habitats and water levels

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kaczka, Levi J.; Miranda, Leandro E.

2014-01-01

Variable year-class strength is common in crappie Pomoxis spp. populations in many reservoirs, yet the mechanisms behind this variability are poorly understood. Size-dependent mortality of age-0 fishes has long been recognized in the population ecology literature; however, investigations about the effects of environmental factors on age-0 crappie size are lacking. The objective of this study was to determine if differences existed in total length of age-0 crappies between embayment and floodplain habitats in reservoirs, while accounting for potential confounding effects of water level and crappie species. To this end, we examined size of age-0 crappies in four flood-control reservoirs in northwest Mississippi over 4years. Age-0 crappies inhabiting uplake floodplain habitats grew to a larger size than fish in downlake embayments, but this trend depended on species, length of time a reservoir was dewatered in the months preceding spawning, and reservoir water level in the months following spawning. The results from our study indicate that water-level management may focus not only on allowing access to quality nursery habitat, but that alternating water levels on a multiyear schedule could increase the quality of degraded littoral habitats.

Determining the sample size for co-dominant molecular marker-assisted linkage detection for a monogenic qualitative trait by controlling the type-I and type-II errors in a segregating F2 population.

PubMed

Hühn, M; Piepho, H P

2003-03-01

Tests for linkage are usually performed using the lod score method. A critical question in linkage analyses is the choice of sample size. The appropriate sample size depends on the desired type-I error and power of the test. This paper investigates the exact type-I error and power of the lod score method in a segregating F(2) population with co-dominant markers and a qualitative monogenic dominant-recessive trait. For illustration, a disease-resistance trait is considered, where the susceptible allele is recessive. A procedure is suggested for finding the appropriate sample size. It is shown that recessive plants have about twice the information content of dominant plants, so the former should be preferred for linkage detection. In some cases the exact alpha-values for a given nominal alpha may be rather small due to the discrete nature of the sampling distribution in small samples. We show that a gain in power is possible by using exact methods.

In vitro ovine articular chondrocyte proliferation: experiments and modelling.

PubMed

Mancuso, L; Liuzzo, M I; Fadda, S; Pisu, M; Cincotti, A; Arras, M; La Nasa, G; Concas, A; Cao, G

2010-06-01

This study focuses on analysis of in vitro cultures of chondrocytes from ovine articular cartilage. Isolated cells were seeded in Petri dishes, then expanded to confluence and phenotypically characterized by flow cytometry. The sigmoidal temporal profile of total counts was obtained by classic haemocytometry and corresponding cell size distributions were measured electronically using a Coulter Counter. A mathematical model recently proposed (1) was adopted for quantitative interpretation of these experimental data. The model is based on a 1-D (that is, mass-structured), single-staged population balance approach capable of taking into account contact inhibition at confluence. The model's parameters were determined by fitting measured total cell counts and size distributions. Model reliability was verified by predicting cell proliferation counts and corresponding size distributions at culture times longer than those used when tuning the model's parameters. It was found that adoption of cell mass as the intrinsic characteristic of a growing chondrocyte population enables sigmoidal temporal profiles of total counts in the Petri dish, as well as cell size distributions at 'balanced growth', to be adequately predicted.

Relationships between nesting populations of wading birds and habitat features along the Atlantic Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erwin, R.M.; Spendelow, J.A.; Geissler, P.H.; Williams, B.K.; Whitman, William R.; Meredith, William H.

1987-01-01

Using previously published atlas data for 122 mixed-species wading bird colonies on islands along the Atlantic coast (Maine to Florida, 1976-77), we examined relationships between population sizes of 11 species of egrets, herons, ibises, and wood storks (Mycteria americana) and nine habitat variables. On nautical charts, we measured four island characteristics (area, length, width, shape), three isolation factors (distances to nearest island, mainland, and a water barrier),, and two variables related to potential feeding habitat within 5 km of the center of the colony (wetland area and land-water interface, i.e., the linear distance between the marsh/upland and all water bodies within the same 5-km radius). One univariable and five multivariable .procedures were used to determine which habitat features were best related to population size .(all species combined). Multicollinearity problems among the variables limited interpretation for most procedures. Both univariable and the multivariable procedures indicated that land-water interface was the most important of the nine variables, but for all models, less than 10% of the total variance was explained (rz is less than 0.10). The size of the colony was not related to the amount of wetland area (within 5-km).per se. Colony data showed better 'structure' when examined on the basis of geographic and disturbance gradients. Population sizes of colonies near man-altered habitats were compared with those surrounded by relatively natural habitats in three geographic zones: north, middle, and south. Significant differences were found in colony size among the three zones (south largest) and between disturbance types. Surprisingly, in all three zones, colonies near man-altered areas were larger on average than those near more natural habitats in this region. A possible reason for this difference is suggested.

Variability in primary productivity determines metapopulation dynamics

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Temporal variability in primary productivity can change habitat quality for consumer species by affecting the energy levels available as food resources. However, it remains unclear how habitat-quality fluctuations may determine the dynamics of spatially structured populations, where the effects of habitat size, quality and isolation have been customarily assessed assuming static habitats. We present the first empirical evaluation on the effects of stochastic fluctuations in primary productivity—a major outcome of ecosystem functions—on the metapopulation dynamics of a primary consumer. A unique 13-year dataset from an herbivore rodent was used to test the hypothesis that inter-annual variations in primary productivity determine spatiotemporal habitat occupancy patterns and colonization and extinction processes. Inter-annual variability in productivity and in the growing season phenology significantly influenced habitat colonization patterns and occupancy dynamics. These effects lead to changes in connectivity to other potentially occupied habitat patches, which then feed back into occupancy dynamics. According to the results, the dynamics of primary productivity accounted for more than 50% of the variation in occupancy probability, depending on patch size and landscape configuration. Evidence connecting primary productivity dynamics and spatiotemporal population processes has broad implications for metapopulation persistence in fluctuating and changing environments. PMID:27053739

Variability in primary productivity determines metapopulation dynamics.

PubMed

Fernández, Néstor; Román, Jacinto; Delibes, Miguel

2016-04-13

Temporal variability in primary productivity can change habitat quality for consumer species by affecting the energy levels available as food resources. However, it remains unclear how habitat-quality fluctuations may determine the dynamics of spatially structured populations, where the effects of habitat size, quality and isolation have been customarily assessed assuming static habitats. We present the first empirical evaluation on the effects of stochastic fluctuations in primary productivity--a major outcome of ecosystem functions--on the metapopulation dynamics of a primary consumer. A unique 13-year dataset from an herbivore rodent was used to test the hypothesis that inter-annual variations in primary productivity determine spatiotemporal habitat occupancy patterns and colonization and extinction processes. Inter-annual variability in productivity and in the growing season phenology significantly influenced habitat colonization patterns and occupancy dynamics. These effects lead to changes in connectivity to other potentially occupied habitat patches, which then feed back into occupancy dynamics. According to the results, the dynamics of primary productivity accounted for more than 50% of the variation in occupancy probability, depending on patch size and landscape configuration. Evidence connecting primary productivity dynamics and spatiotemporal population processes has broad implications for metapopulation persistence in fluctuating and changing environments. © 2016 The Authors.

Population size, group composition and behavioural ecology of geladas (Theropithecus gelada) and human-gelada conflict in Wonchit Valley, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Kifle, Zewdu; Belay, Gurja; Bekele, Afework

2013-11-01

Primates that live in protected areas are intensively studied; however, those that live outside protected areas are less studied by primatologists. Therefore, the present study was carried out outside protected areas on the endemic gelada (Theropithecus gelada) to estimate the population size and group composition and human-gelada conflict in Wonchit Valley, Ethiopia from August 2008-March 2009. Total count method was used to determine the population size and group composition of geladas. A band of geladas was selected to carry out behavioural research. Data were collected on activity, diet and ranging patterns for one band of geladas using scan samples at 15 min intervals. Data on human-gelada conflict was gathered using questionnaire interview method. The total number of geladas in the study area was 1525. The average size of one-male unit was 16.96. Adult male to adult female sex ratio was 1.00:6.61. The average size of the band was 58.03. Group size ranged from 3 to 220. Geladas spent 65.2% of their time feeding, 16.3% moving, 4.6% resting and 13.9% socializing. The total time spent feeding on grass blades was 83.8% and 11.8% for bulbs and roots. The home range size was 1.5 km2 during the dry season and 0.2 km2 during the wet season. Geladas in the study area caused crop damage and shared pasture and drinking water with livestock. They consume crops during harvesting stage more than the seedling and vegetative stages. The study has immense contribution for the conservation and management of this endemic primate in unprotected areas.

Altitudinal variation in age and body size in Yunnan pond frog (Pelophylax pleuraden).

PubMed

Lou, Shang Ling; Jin, Long; Liu, Yan Hong; Mi, Zhi Ping; Tao, Gang; Tang, Yu Mei; Liao, Wen Bo

2012-08-01

Large-scale systematic patterns of body size are a basic concern of evolutionary biology. Identifying body size variation along altitudinal gradients may help us to understand the evolution of life history of animals. In this study, we investigated altitudinal variation in body size, age and growth rate in Chinese endemic frog, Pelophylax pleuraden. Data sampled from five populations covering an altitudinal span of 1413 to 1935 m in Sichuan province revealed that body size from five populations did not co-vary with altitudes, not following Bergmann's rule. Average adult SVL differed significantly among populations in males, but not in females. For both sexes, average adult age differed significantly among populations. Post-metamorphic growth rate did not co-vary with altitude, and females grew faster than males in all populations. When controlling the effect of age, body size did not differ among populations in both sexes, suggesting that age did not affect variation in body size among populations. For females, there may be other factors, such as the allocation of energy between growth and reproduction, that eliminated the effect of age on body size. To our minds, the major reason of body size variation among populations in male frogs may be related to individual longevity. Our findings also suggest that factors other than age and growth rate may contribute to size differences among populations.

Both population size and patch quality affect local extinctions and colonizations.

PubMed

Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

2010-01-07

Currently, the habitat of many species is fragmented, resulting in small local populations with individuals occasionally dispersing between the remaining habitat patches. In a solitary bee metapopulation, extinction probability was related to both local bee population sizes and pollen resources measured as host plant population size. Patch size, on the other hand, had no additional predictive power. The turnover rate of local bee populations in 63 habitat patches over 4 years was high, with 72 extinction events and 31 colonization events, but the pollen plant population was stable with no extinctions or colonizations. Both pollen resources and bee populations had strong and independent effects on extinction probability, but connectivity was not of importance. Colonizations occurred more frequently within larger host plant populations. For metapopulation survival of the bee, large pollen plant populations are essential, independent of current bee population size.

Population ecology of variegate darter (Etheostoma variatum) in Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Argentina, Jane E.; Angermeier, Paul; Hallerman, Eric M.

2013-01-01

Variegate darters (Etheostoma variatum) were listed as endangered in Virginia in 1992. Reasons for listing included habitat degradation and concerns about current and future impacts of coal mining throughout their Virginia range. Prior to this research, little was known about variegate darter distribution, habitat use, or populations in Virginia. Two primary goals of this research were to gain knowledge about the current population ecology and the relationship between landscape-level factors (e.g., land cover changes, watershed size, isolation from other populations) on current and past variegate darter population sizes.We investigated distribution, habitat suitability, population genetics, and population size and structure of variegate darters in the upper Big Sandy River drainage, Buchanan, Dickenson, and Wise Co., Virginia. Our results indicate variegate darters are primarily found in the Levisa Fork, with highest densities and abundances between its confluence with Dismal Creek and the Virginia-Kentucky border. Sporadic occurrences in smaller tributaries to the Levisa and Tug forks indicate they exist more widely in low densities, especially near the confluence with the Tug and Levisa mainstems. Detection of variegate darters in smaller tributaries was inconsistent, with reach-level occupancy estimates varying among years. We detected young-of-year variegate darters every year we sampled, but age 1+ darters were indistinguishable from older darters based on standard length.Variegate darter population size and stability in Virginia were estimated via multiple methods, including site occupancy surveys, mark-recapture studies, and population genetic analysis. Using mark-recapture methods at five sites, we estimated overall population size in 2011 to be approximately 12,800 individuals in the 35-km reach between the Levisa Fork - Dismal Creek confluence and the Virginia-Kentucky border. Age structure seemed stable, with breeding adults and young-of-year collected annually during 2008-2011. Population genetic analysis indicated variegate darters in the Levisa Fork and its tributaries are part of a single genetic population. Historical and current genetic stability were seen in our analysis of the variegate darter population, with no genetic differentiation among riffles across the upper Levisa Fork watershed, indicating dispersal among these sites is enough to overcome random genetic drift. This population is genetically isolated from downstream populations by the dam at Fishtrap Lake, Pike Co., Kentucky, and is beginning to show genetic isolation from other nearby populations. As expected, the Virginia population is most closely related to those in the Russell Fork and Levisa Fork downstream of the dam.Regular monitoring of variegate darters in the Levisa Fork mainstem from the Dismal Creek confluence to the Virginia-Kentucky border would facilitate better understanding of normal fluctuations of population size and distribution, as well as assessments of population status. This reach encompasses the core of the variegate darter population in Virginia, and its persistence will determine long-term viability of this species. Given that little is known about long-term population trends, we suggest that annual site-occupancy and population size estimates be made at ten randomly selected riffles for at least ten years to understand normal levels of variability. Thereafter, these population parameters could be monitored bi-annually as a way to detect shrinking distribution or abundance, especially after any fish kill or other pollution event in the Levisa Fork. We further suggest that the sites upstream and downstream of the saline diffusor pipe be monitored to detect changes in the extent of the impact zone.Overall, the variegate darter population in Virginia appears stable, although primarily confined to the lower 35 km of the Levisa Fork. Nevertheless, variegate darters in Virginia remain susceptible to extirpation due to catastrophic events, both physical (chemical spill) and biological (disease outbreak or invasive species introduction).

Reevaluating geographic variation in life-history traits of a widespread Nearctic amphibian

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davenport, Jon M.; Hossack, Blake R.

2016-01-01

Animals from cold environments are usually larger than animals from warm environments, which often produce clines in body size. Because variation in body size can lead to trade-offs between growth and reproduction, life-history traits should also vary across climatic gradients. To determine if life-history traits of wood frogs Rana sylvatica vary with climate, we examined female and male body length, clutch size, and ovum size from 37 locations across an unprecedented 32° of latitude. In conflict with recent research, body size, and ovum size decreased in cold climates and at higher latitudes. Clutch size did not vary with climate or latitude, but reproductive effort (clutch size:female size) did, suggesting selection for a life-history traits that favors maximizing propagule number over propagule size in cold climates. With accelerating climate change that will expose populations to novel environmental conditions, it is important to identify the limits of adaptation, which can be informed by greater understanding of variation in life-history traits.

The Effects of Population Size Histories on Estimates of Selection Coefficients from Time-Series Genetic Data

PubMed Central

Jewett, Ethan M.; Steinrücken, Matthias; Song, Yun S.

2016-01-01

Many approaches have been developed for inferring selection coefficients from time series data while accounting for genetic drift. These approaches have been motivated by the intuition that properly accounting for the population size history can significantly improve estimates of selective strengths. However, the improvement in inference accuracy that can be attained by modeling drift has not been characterized. Here, by comparing maximum likelihood estimates of selection coefficients that account for the true population size history with estimates that ignore drift by assuming allele frequencies evolve deterministically in a population of infinite size, we address the following questions: how much can modeling the population size history improve estimates of selection coefficients? How much can mis-inferred population sizes hurt inferences of selection coefficients? We conduct our analysis under the discrete Wright–Fisher model by deriving the exact probability of an allele frequency trajectory in a population of time-varying size and we replicate our results under the diffusion model. For both models, we find that ignoring drift leads to estimates of selection coefficients that are nearly as accurate as estimates that account for the true population history, even when population sizes are small and drift is high. This result is of interest because inference methods that ignore drift are widely used in evolutionary studies and can be many orders of magnitude faster than methods that account for population sizes. PMID:27550904

Understanding Past Population Dynamics: Bayesian Coalescent-Based Modeling with Covariates

PubMed Central

Gill, Mandev S.; Lemey, Philippe; Bennett, Shannon N.; Biek, Roman; Suchard, Marc A.

2016-01-01

Effective population size characterizes the genetic variability in a population and is a parameter of paramount importance in population genetics and evolutionary biology. Kingman’s coalescent process enables inference of past population dynamics directly from molecular sequence data, and researchers have developed a number of flexible coalescent-based models for Bayesian nonparametric estimation of the effective population size as a function of time. Major goals of demographic reconstruction include identifying driving factors of effective population size, and understanding the association between the effective population size and such factors. Building upon Bayesian nonparametric coalescent-based approaches, we introduce a flexible framework that incorporates time-varying covariates that exploit Gaussian Markov random fields to achieve temporal smoothing of effective population size trajectories. To approximate the posterior distribution, we adapt efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms designed for highly structured Gaussian models. Incorporating covariates into the demographic inference framework enables the modeling of associations between the effective population size and covariates while accounting for uncertainty in population histories. Furthermore, it can lead to more precise estimates of population dynamics. We apply our model to four examples. We reconstruct the demographic history of raccoon rabies in North America and find a significant association with the spatiotemporal spread of the outbreak. Next, we examine the effective population size trajectory of the DENV-4 virus in Puerto Rico along with viral isolate count data and find similar cyclic patterns. We compare the population history of the HIV-1 CRF02_AG clade in Cameroon with HIV incidence and prevalence data and find that the effective population size is more reflective of incidence rate. Finally, we explore the hypothesis that the population dynamics of musk ox during the Late Quaternary period were related to climate change. [Coalescent; effective population size; Gaussian Markov random fields; phylodynamics; phylogenetics; population genetics. PMID:27368344

Effects of constant immigration on the dynamics and persistence of stable and unstable Drosophila populations

PubMed Central

Dey, Snigdhadip; Joshi, Amitabh

2013-01-01

Constant immigration can stabilize population size fluctuations but its effects on extinction remain unexplored. We show that constant immigration significantly reduced extinction in fruitfly populations with relatively stable or unstable dynamics. In unstable populations with oscillations of amplitude around 1.5 times the mean population size, persistence and constancy were unrelated. Low immigration enhanced persistence without affecting constancy whereas high immigration increased constancy without enhancing persistence. In relatively stable populations with erratic fluctuations of amplitude close to the mean population size, both low and high immigration enhanced persistence. In these populations, the amplitude of fluctuations relative to mean population size went down due to immigration, and their dynamics were altered to low-period cycles. The effects of immigration on the population size distribution and intrinsic dynamics of stable versus unstable populations differed considerably, suggesting that the mechanisms by which immigration reduced extinction risk depended on underlying dynamics in complex ways. PMID:23470546

Genome size differentiates co-occurring populations of the planktonic diatom Ditylum brightwellii (Bacillariophyta)

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Diatoms are one of the most species-rich groups of eukaryotic microbes known. Diatoms are also the only group of eukaryotic micro-algae with a diplontic life history, suggesting that the ancestral diatom switched to a life history dominated by a duplicated genome. A key mechanism of speciation among diatoms could be a propensity for additional stable genome duplications. Across eukaryotic taxa, genome size is directly correlated to cell size and inversely correlated to physiological rates. Differences in relative genome size, cell size, and acclimated growth rates were analyzed in isolates of the diatom Ditylum brightwellii. Ditylum brightwellii consists of two main populations with identical 18s rDNA sequences; one population is distributed globally at temperate latitudes and the second appears to be localized to the Pacific Northwest coast of the USA. These two populations co-occur within the Puget Sound estuary of WA, USA, although their peak abundances differ depending on local conditions. Results All isolates from the more regionally-localized population (population 2) possessed 1.94 ± 0.74 times the amount of DNA, grew more slowly, and were generally larger than isolates from the more globally distributed population (population 1). The ITS1 sequences, cell sizes, and genome sizes of isolates from New Zealand were the same as population 1 isolates from Puget Sound, but their growth rates were within the range of the slower-growing population 2 isolates. Importantly, the observed genome size difference between isolates from the two populations was stable regardless of time in culture or the changes in cell size that accompany the diatom life history. Conclusions The observed two-fold difference in genome size between the D. brightwellii populations suggests that whole genome duplication occurred within cells of population 1 ultimately giving rise to population 2 cells. The apparent regional localization of population 2 is consistent with a recent divergence between the populations, which are likely cryptic species. Genome size variation is known to occur in other diatom genera; we hypothesize that genome duplication may be an active and important mechanism of genetic and physiological diversification and speciation in diatoms. PMID:20044934

Population estimates and monitoring guidelines for endangered Laysan Teal, Anas Laysanensis, at Midway Atoll: Pilot study results 2008-2010.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, Michelle H.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Laniawe, Leona

2011-01-01

To improve the Laysan Teal population estimates, we recommend changes to the monitoring protocol. Additional years of data are needed to quantify inter-annual seasonal detection probabilities, which may allow the use of standardized direct counts as an unbiased index of population size. Survey protocols should be enhanced through frequent resights, regular survey intervals, and determining reliable standards to detect catastrophic declines and annual changes in adult abundance. In late 2009 to early 2010, 68% of the population was marked with unique color band combinations. This allowed for potentially accurate adult population estimates and survival estimates without the need to mark new birds in 2010, 2011, and possibly 2012. However, efforts should be made to replace worn or illegible bands so birds can be identified in future surveys. It would be valuable to develop more sophisticated population size and survival models using Program MARK, a state-of-the-art software package which uses likelihood models to analyze mark-recapture data. This would allow for more reliable adult population and survival estimates to compare with the ―source‖ Laysan Teal population on Laysan Island. These models will require additional years of resight data (> 1 year) and, in some cases, an intensive annual effort of marking and recapture. Because data indicate standardized all-wetland counts are a poor index of abundance, monitoring efforts could be improved by expanding resight surveys to include all wetlands, discontinuing the all-wetland counts, and reallocating some of the wetland count effort to collect additional opportunistic resights. Approximately two years of additional bimonthly surveys are needed to validate the direct count as an appropriate index of population abundance. Additional years of individual resight data will allow estimates of adult population size, as specified in recovery criteria, and to track species population dynamics at Midway Atoll.

Survival of radio-implanted drymarchon couperi (Eastern Indigo Snake) in relation to body size and sex

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hyslop, N.L.; Meyers, J.M.; Cooper, R.J.; Norton, Terry M.

2009-01-01

Drymarchon couperi (eastern indigo snake) has experienced population declines across its range primarily as a result of extensive habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation. Conservation efforts for D. couperi have been hindered, in part, because of informational gaps regarding the species, including a lack of data on population ecology and estimates of demographic parameters such as survival. We conducted a 2- year radiotelemetry study of D. couperi on Fort Stewart Military Reservation and adjacent private lands located in southeastern Georgia to assess individual characteristics associated with probability of survival. We used known-fate modeling to estimate survival, and an information-theoretic approach, based on a priori hypotheses, to examine intraspecific differences in survival probabilities relative to individual covariates (sex, size, size standardized by sex, and overwintering location). Annual survival in 2003 and 2004 was 0.89 (95% CI = 0.73-0.97, n = 25) and 0.72 (95% CI = 0.52-0.86; n = 27), respectively. Results indicated that body size, standardized by sex, was the most important covariate determining survival of adult D. couperi, suggesting lower survival for larger individuals within each sex. We are uncertain of the mechanisms underlying this result, but possibilities may include greater resource needs for larger individuals within each sex, necessitating larger or more frequent movements, or a population with older individuals. Our results may also have been influenced by analysis limitations because of sample size, other sources of individual variation, or environmental conditions. ?? 2009 by The Herpetologists' League, Inc.

Bayesian Inference on the Effect of Density Dependence and Weather on a Guanaco Population from Chile

PubMed Central

Zubillaga, María; Skewes, Oscar; Soto, Nicolás; Rabinovich, Jorge E.; Colchero, Fernando

2014-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms that drive population dynamics is fundamental for management of wild populations. The guanaco (Lama guanicoe) is one of two wild camelid species in South America. We evaluated the effects of density dependence and weather variables on population regulation based on a time series of 36 years of population sampling of guanacos in Tierra del Fuego, Chile. The population density varied between 2.7 and 30.7 guanaco/km2, with an apparent monotonic growth during the first 25 years; however, in the last 10 years the population has shown large fluctuations, suggesting that it might have reached its carrying capacity. We used a Bayesian state-space framework and model selection to determine the effect of density and environmental variables on guanaco population dynamics. Our results show that the population is under density dependent regulation and that it is currently fluctuating around an average carrying capacity of 45,000 guanacos. We also found a significant positive effect of previous winter temperature while sheep density has a strong negative effect on the guanaco population growth. We conclude that there are significant density dependent processes and that climate as well as competition with domestic species have important effects determining the population size of guanacos, with important implications for management and conservation. PMID:25514510

Bayesian inference on the effect of density dependence and weather on a guanaco population from Chile.

PubMed

Zubillaga, María; Skewes, Oscar; Soto, Nicolás; Rabinovich, Jorge E; Colchero, Fernando

2014-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms that drive population dynamics is fundamental for management of wild populations. The guanaco (Lama guanicoe) is one of two wild camelid species in South America. We evaluated the effects of density dependence and weather variables on population regulation based on a time series of 36 years of population sampling of guanacos in Tierra del Fuego, Chile. The population density varied between 2.7 and 30.7 guanaco/km2, with an apparent monotonic growth during the first 25 years; however, in the last 10 years the population has shown large fluctuations, suggesting that it might have reached its carrying capacity. We used a Bayesian state-space framework and model selection to determine the effect of density and environmental variables on guanaco population dynamics. Our results show that the population is under density dependent regulation and that it is currently fluctuating around an average carrying capacity of 45,000 guanacos. We also found a significant positive effect of previous winter temperature while sheep density has a strong negative effect on the guanaco population growth. We conclude that there are significant density dependent processes and that climate as well as competition with domestic species have important effects determining the population size of guanacos, with important implications for management and conservation.

Economic evaluation of progeny-testing and genomic selection schemes for small-sized nucleus dairy cattle breeding programs in developing countries.

PubMed

Kariuki, C M; Brascamp, E W; Komen, H; Kahi, A K; van Arendonk, J A M

2017-03-01

In developing countries minimal and erratic performance and pedigree recording impede implementation of large-sized breeding programs. Small-sized nucleus programs offer an alternative but rely on their economic performance for their viability. We investigated the economic performance of 2 alternative small-sized dairy nucleus programs [i.e., progeny testing (PT) and genomic selection (GS)] over a 20-yr investment period. The nucleus was made up of 453 male and 360 female animals distributed in 8 non-overlapping age classes. Each year 10 active sires and 100 elite dams were selected. Populations of commercial recorded cows (CRC) of sizes 12,592 and 25,184 were used to produce test daughters in PT or to create a reference population in GS, respectively. Economic performance was defined as gross margins, calculated as discounted revenues minus discounted costs following a single generation of selection. Revenues were calculated as cumulative discounted expressions (CDE, kg) × 0.32 (€/kg of milk) × 100,000 (size commercial population). Genetic superiorities, deterministically simulated using pseudo-BLUP index and CDE, were determined using gene flow. Costs were for one generation of selection. Results show that GS schemes had higher cumulated genetic gain in the commercial cow population and higher gross margins compared with PT schemes. Gross margins were between 3.2- and 5.2-fold higher for GS, depending on size of the CRC population. The increase in gross margin was mostly due to a decreased generation interval and lower running costs in GS schemes. In PT schemes many bulls are culled before selection. We therefore also compared 2 schemes in which semen was stored instead of keeping live bulls. As expected, semen storage resulted in an increase in gross margins in PT schemes, but gross margins remained lower than those of GS schemes. We conclude that implementation of small-sized GS breeding schemes can be economically viable for developing countries. The Authors. Published by the Federation of Animal Science Societies and Elsevier Inc. on behalf of the American Dairy Science Association®. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).

Adaptively resizing populations: Algorithm, analysis, and first results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Robert E.; Smuda, Ellen

1993-01-01

Deciding on an appropriate population size for a given Genetic Algorithm (GA) application can often be critical to the algorithm's success. Too small, and the GA can fall victim to sampling error, affecting the efficacy of its search. Too large, and the GA wastes computational resources. Although advice exists for sizing GA populations, much of this advice involves theoretical aspects that are not accessible to the novice user. An algorithm for adaptively resizing GA populations is suggested. This algorithm is based on recent theoretical developments that relate population size to schema fitness variance. The suggested algorithm is developed theoretically, and simulated with expected value equations. The algorithm is then tested on a problem where population sizing can mislead the GA. The work presented suggests that the population sizing algorithm may be a viable way to eliminate the population sizing decision from the application of GA's.

Inverse Correlation of Population Similarity and Introduction Date for Invasive Ascidians

PubMed Central

Silva, Nathan; Smith, William C.

2008-01-01

The genomes of many marine invertebrates, including the purple sea urchin and the solitary ascidians Ciona intestinalis and Ciona savignyi, show exceptionally high levels of heterozygosity, implying that these populations are highly polymorphic. Analysis of the C. savignyi genome found little evidence to support an elevated mutation rate, but rather points to a large population size contributing to the polymorphism level. In the present study, the relative genetic polymorphism levels in sampled populations of ten different ascidian species were determined using a similarity index generated by AFLP analysis. The goal was to determine the range of polymorphism within the populations of different species, and to uncover factors that may contribute to the high level of polymorphism. We observe that, surprisingly, the levels of polymorphism within these species show a negative correlation with the reported age of invasive populations, and that closely related species show substantially different levels of genetic polymorphism. These findings show exceptions to the assumptions that invasive species start with a low level of genetic polymorphism that increases over time and that closely related species have similar levels of genetic polymorphism. PMID:18575620

An Analysis of Diet Quality, How It Controls Fatty Acid Profiles, Isotope Signatures and Stoichiometry in the Malaria Mosquito Anopheles arabiensis

PubMed Central

Hood-Nowotny, Rebecca; Schwarzinger, Bettina; Schwarzinger, Clemens; Soliban, Sharon; Madakacherry, Odessa; Aigner, Martina; Watzka, Margarete; Gilles, Jeremie

2012-01-01

Background Knowing the underlying mechanisms of mosquito ecology will ensure effective vector management and contribute to the overall goal of malaria control. Mosquito populations show a high degree of population plasticity in response to environmental variability. However, the principle factors controlling population size and fecundity are for the most part unknown. Larval habitat and diet play a crucial role in subsequent mosquito fitness. Developing the most competitive insects for sterile insect technique programmes requires a “production” orientated perspective, to deduce the most effective larval diet formulation; the information gained from this process offers us some insight into the mechanisms and processes taking place in natural native mosquito habitats. Methodology/Principal Findings Fatty acid profiles and de-novo or direct assimilation pathways, of whole-individual mosquitoes reared on a range of larval diets were determined using pyrolysis gas chromatograph/mass spectrometry. We used elemental analysis and isotope ratio mass spectrometry to measure individual-whole-body carbon, nitrogen and phosphorous values and to assess the impact of dietary quality on subsequent population stoichiometry, size, quality and isotopic signature. Diet had the greatest impact on fatty acid (FA) profiles of the mosquitoes, which exhibited a high degree of dietary routing, characteristic of generalist feeders. De-novo synthesis of a number of important FAs was observed. Mosquito C:N stoichiometry was fixed in the teneral stage. Dietary N content had significant influence on mosquito size, and P was shown to be a flexible pool which limited overall population size. Conclusions/Significance Direct routing of FAs was evident but there was ubiquitous de-novo synthesis suggesting mosquito larvae are competent generalist feeders capable of survival on diet with varying characteristics. It was concluded that nitrogen availability in the larval diet controlled teneral mosquito size and that teneral CN ratio is a sex- and species-specific fixed parameter. This finding has significant implications for overall mosquito competitiveness and environmental management. PMID:23133509

Body Size Changes Among National Collegiate Athletic Association New England Division III Football Players, 1956-2014: Comparison With Age-Matched Population Controls.

PubMed

Elliott, Kayla R; Harmatz, Jerold S; Zhao, Yanli; Greenblatt, David J

2016-05-01

Collegiate football programs encourage athletes to pursue high body weights. To examine position-dependent trends over time in body size characteristics among football players in the National Collegiate Athletic Association Division III New England Small College Athletic Conference (NESCAC) from 1956 to 2014 and to compare the observed absolute and relative changes with those in age-matched male population controls. Descriptive laboratory study. Medical school affiliated with a NESCAC institution. Football team rosters from the 10-member NESCAC schools, available as public documents, were analyzed along with body size data from general population males aged 20 to 29 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Body weight, height, and calculated body mass index were evaluated using analysis of variance, linear regression, and nonlinear regression to determine the distribution features of size variables and changes associated with time (year), school, and position. Among NESCAC linemen, absolute and relative changes over time in body weight and body mass index exceeded corresponding changes in the NHANES population controls. New England Small College Athletic Conference offensive linemen body weights increased by 37.5% from 1956 to 2014 (192 to 264 lb [86.4 to 118.8 kg]), compared with a 12% increase (164 to 184 lb [73.8 to 82.8 kg]) since 1961 in the NHANES population controls. Body mass index changed in parallel with body weight and exceeded 35 kg/m(2) in more than 30% of contemporary NESCAC offensive linemen. Among skill players in the NESCAC group, time-related changes in body size characteristics generally paralleled those in the NHANES controls. High body weight and body mass indices were evident in offensive linemen, even among those in Division III football programs with no athletic scholarships. These characteristics may be associated with adverse cardiovascular and metabolic outcomes. We need approaches to encourage risk modification in the postfootball lifestyles of these individuals.

[Experimental analysis of some determinants of inductive reasoning].

PubMed

Ono, K

1989-02-01

Three experiments were conducted from a behavioral perspective to investigate the determinants of inductive reasoning and to compare some methodological differences. The dependent variable used in these experiments was the threshold of confident response (TCR), which was defined as "the minimal sample size required to establish generalization from instances." Experiment 1 examined the effects of population size on inductive reasoning, and the results from 35 college students showed that the TCR varied in proportion to the logarithm of population size. In Experiment 2, 30 subjects showed distinct sensitivity to both prior probability and base-rate. The results from 70 subjects who participated in Experiment 3 showed that the TCR was affected by its consequences (risk condition), and especially, that humans were sensitive to a loss situation. These results demonstrate the sensitivity of humans to statistical variables in inductive reasoning. Furthermore, methodological comparison indicated that the experimentally observed values of TCR were close to, but not as precise as the optimal values predicted by Bayes' model. On the other hand, the subjective TCR estimated by subjects was highly discrepant from the observed TCR. These findings suggest that various aspects of inductive reasoning can be fruitfully investigated not only from subjective estimations such as probability likelihood but also from an objective behavioral perspective.

Mark-resight superpopulation estimation of a wintering elk Cervus elaphus canadensis herd

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gould, W.R.; Smallidge, S.T.; Thompson, B.C.

2005-01-01

We executed four mark-resight helicopter surveys during the winter months January-February for each of the three years 1999-2001 at 7-10 day intervals to estimate population size of a wintering elk Cervus elaphus canadensis herd in northern New Mexico. We counted numbers of radio-collared and uncollared elk on a simple random sample of quadrats from the study area. Because we were unable to survey the entire study area, we adopted a superpopulation approach to estimating population size, in which the total number of collared animals within and proximate to the entire study area was determined from an independent fixed-wing aircraft. The total number of collared animals available on the quadrats surveyed was also determined and facilitated detectability estimation. We executed superpopulation estimation via the joint hypergeometric estimator using the ratio of marked elk counted to the known number extant as an estimate of effective detectability. Superpopulation size estimates were approximately four times larger than previously suspected in the vicinity of the study area. Despite consistent survey methodology, actual detection rates varied within winter periods, indicating that multiple resight flights are important for improved estimator performance. Variable detectability also suggests that reliance on mere counts of observed individuals in our area may not accurately reflect abundance. ?? Wildlife Biology (2005).

Rapid population divergence in thermal reaction norms for an invading species: breaking the temperature-size rule.

PubMed

Kingsolver, J G; Massie, K R; Ragland, G J; Smith, M H

2007-05-01

The temperature-size rule is a common pattern of phenotypic plasticity in which higher temperature during development results in a smaller adult body size (i.e. a thermal reaction norm with negative slope). Examples and exceptions to the rule are known in multiple groups of organisms, but rapid population differentiation in the temperature-size rule has not been explored. Here we examine the genetic and parental contributions to population differentiation in thermal reaction norms for size, development time and survival in the Cabbage White Butterfly Pieris rapae, for two geographical populations that have likely diverged within the past 150 years. We used split-sibship experiments with two temperature treatments (warm and cool) for P. rapae from Chapel Hill, NC, and from Seattle, WA. Mixed-effect model analyses demonstrate significant genetic differences between NC and WA populations for adult size and for thermal reaction norms for size. Mean adult mass was 12-24% greater in NC than in WA populations for both temperature treatments; mean size was unaffected or decreased with temperature (the temperature-size rule) for the WA population, but size increased with temperature for the NC population. Our study shows that the temperature-size rule and related thermal reaction norms can evolve rapidly within species in natural field conditions. Rapid evolutionary divergence argues against the existence of a simple, general mechanistic constraint as the underlying cause of the temperature-size rule.

Transethnic differences in GWAS signals: A simulation study.

PubMed

Zanetti, Daniela; Weale, Michael E

2018-05-07

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have allowed researchers to identify thousands of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and other variants associated with particular complex traits. Previous studies have reported differences in the strength and even the direction of GWAS signals across different populations. These differences could be due to a combination of (1) lack of power, (2) allele frequency differences, (3) linkage disequilibrium (LD) differences, and (4) true differences in causal variant effect sizes. To determine whether properties (1)-(3) on their own might be sufficient to explain the patterns previously noted in strong GWAS signals, we simulated case-control data of European, Asian and African ancestry, applying realistic allele frequencies and LD from 1000 Genomes data but enforcing equal causal effect sizes across populations. Much of the observed differences in strong GWAS signals could indeed be accounted for by allele frequency and LD differences, enhanced by the Euro-centric SNP bias and lower SNP coverage found in older GWAS panels. While we cannot rule out a role for true transethnic effect size differences, our results suggest that strong causal effects may be largely shared among human populations, motivating the use of transethnic data for fine-mapping. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/University College London.

Population growth rates: issues and an application.

PubMed Central

Godfray, H Charles J; Rees, Mark

2002-01-01

Current issues in population dynamics are discussed in the context of The Royal Society Discussion Meeting 'Population growth rate: determining factors and role in population regulation'. In particular, different views on the centrality of population growth rates to the study of population dynamics and the role of experiments and theory are explored. Major themes emerging include the role of modern statistical techniques in bringing together experimental and theoretical studies, the importance of long-term experimentation and the need for ecology to have model systems, and the value of population growth rate as a means of understanding and predicting population change. The last point is illustrated by the application of a recently introduced technique, integral projection modelling, to study the population growth rate of a monocarpic perennial plant, its elasticities to different life-history components and the evolution of an evolutionarily stable strategy size at flowering. PMID:12396521

Estimating population sizes for elusive animals: the forest elephants of Kakum National Park, Ghana.

PubMed

Eggert, L S; Eggert, J A; Woodruff, D S

2003-06-01

African forest elephants are difficult to observe in the dense vegetation, and previous studies have relied upon indirect methods to estimate population sizes. Using multilocus genotyping of noninvasively collected samples, we performed a genetic survey of the forest elephant population at Kakum National Park, Ghana. We estimated population size, sex ratio and genetic variability from our data, then combined this information with field observations to divide the population into age groups. Our population size estimate was very close to that obtained using dung counts, the most commonly used indirect method of estimating the population sizes of forest elephant populations. As their habitat is fragmented by expanding human populations, management will be increasingly important to the persistence of forest elephant populations. The data that can be obtained from noninvasively collected samples will help managers plan for the conservation of this keystone species.

The Foraging Ecology of Royal and Sandwich Terns in North Carolina, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGinnis, T.W.; Emslie, S.D.

2001-01-01

Population sizes of territorial male red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) were determined with counts of territorial males (area count) and a Petersen-Lincoln Index method for roadsides (roadside estimate). Weather conditions and time of day did not influence either method. Combined roadside estimates had smaller error bounds than the individual transect estimates and were not hindered by the problem of zero recaptures. Roadside estimates were usually one-half as large as the area counts, presumably due to an observer bias for marked birds. The roadside estimate provides only an index of major changes in populations of territorial male redwings. When the roadside estimate is employed, the area count should be used to determine the amount and nature of observer bias. For small population surveys, the area count is probably more reliable and accurate than the roadside estimate.

Phenotypic plasticity in clutch size regulation among populations of a potential invasive fruit fly from environments that vary in host heterogeneity and isolation.

PubMed

Aluja, M; Birke, A; Díaz-Fleischer, F; Rull, J

2018-05-21

Phenotypic plasticity is thought to evolve in response to environmental unpredictability and can shield genotypes from selection. However, selection can also act on plastic traits. Egg-laying behaviour, including clutch size regulation, is a plastic behavioural trait among tephritid fruit flies. We compared plasticity in clutch size regulation among females of Anastrepha ludens populations stemming from environments that differed in the degree of predictability in egg-laying opportunities. Clutch size regulation in response to hosts of different sizes was compared among flies from (a) a wild, highly isolated population, (b) a wild population that switches seasonally from a small wild host fruit that varies greatly in abundance to an abundant large-sized commercial host, and (c) a laboratory population. Flies from all three populations adjusted clutch number and size according to host size. However, flies from the heterogeneous wild environment were more plastic in adjusting clutch size than flies from agricultural settings that also laid fewer eggs; yet both populations were more plastic in adjusting clutch size in line with host size when compared with laboratory females. When wild and orchard females encountered the largest host, clutch size was extremely variable and egg regulation did not follow the same trend. Heterogeneity in host availability in space and time appears to be as important as seasonal variation in host size in maintaining plastic clutch size regulation behaviour. In stable environments, there was a clear reduction in the plasticity of these traits.

High spatial variation in population size and symbiotic performance of Rhizobium leguminosarum bv. trifolii with white clover in New Zealand pasture soils.

PubMed

Wakelin, Steven; Tillard, Guyléne; van Ham, Robert; Ballard, Ross; Farquharson, Elizabeth; Gerard, Emily; Geurts, Rene; Brown, Matthew; Ridgway, Hayley; O'Callaghan, Maureen

2018-01-01

Biological nitrogen fixation through the legume-rhizobia symbiosis is important for sustainable pastoral production. In New Zealand, the most widespread and valuable symbiosis occurs between white clover (Trifolium repens L.) and Rhizobium leguminosarum bv. trifolii (Rlt). As variation in the population size (determined by most probable number assays; MPN) and effectiveness of N-fixation (symbiotic potential; SP) of Rlt in soils may affect white clover performance, the extent in variation in these properties was examined at three different spatial scales: (1) From 26 sites across New Zealand, (2) at farm-wide scale, and (3) within single fields. Overall, Rlt populations ranged from 95 to >1 x 108 per g soil, with variation similar at the three spatial scales assessed. For almost all samples, there was no relationship between rhizobia population size and ability of the population to fix N during legume symbiosis (SP). When compared with the commercial inoculant strain, the SP of soils ranged between 14 to 143% efficacy. The N-fixing ability of rhizobia populations varied more between samples collected from within a single hill country field (0.8 ha) than between 26 samples collected from diverse locations across New Zealand. Correlations between SP and calcium and aluminium content were found in all sites, except within a dairy farm field. Given the general lack of association between SP and MPN, and high spatial variability of SP at single field scale, provision of advice for treating legume seed with rhizobia based on field-average MPN counts needs to be carefully considered.

Re-examination of population structure and phylogeography of hawksbill turtles in the wider Caribbean using longer mtDNA sequences.

PubMed

Leroux, Robin A; Dutton, Peter H; Abreu-Grobois, F Alberto; Lagueux, Cynthia J; Campbell, Cathi L; Delcroix, Eric; Chevalier, Johan; Horrocks, Julia A; Hillis-Starr, Zandy; Troëng, Sebastian; Harrison, Emma; Stapleton, Seth

2012-01-01

Management of the critically endangered hawksbill turtle in the Wider Caribbean (WC) has been hampered by knowledge gaps regarding stock structure. We carried out a comprehensive stock structure re-assessment of 11 WC hawksbill rookeries using longer mtDNA sequences, larger sample sizes (N = 647), and additional rookeries compared to previous surveys. Additional variation detected by 740 bp sequences between populations allowed us to differentiate populations such as Barbados-Windward and Guadeloupe (F (st) = 0.683, P < 0.05) that appeared genetically indistinguishable based on shorter 380 bp sequences. POWSIM analysis showed that longer sequences improved power to detect population structure and that when N < 30, increasing the variation detected was as effective in increasing power as increasing sample size. Geographic patterns of genetic variation suggest a model of periodic long-distance colonization coupled with region-wide dispersal and subsequent secondary contact within the WC. Mismatch analysis results for individual clades suggest a general population expansion in the WC following a historic bottleneck about 100 000-300 000 years ago. We estimated an effective female population size (N (ef)) of 6000-9000 for the WC, similar to the current estimated numbers of breeding females, highlighting the importance of these regional rookeries to maintaining genetic diversity in hawksbills. Our results provide a basis for standardizing future work to 740 bp sequence reads and establish a more complete baseline for determining stock boundaries in this migratory marine species. Finally, our findings illustrate the value of maintaining an archive of specimens for re-analysis as new markers become available.

High spatial variation in population size and symbiotic performance of Rhizobium leguminosarum bv. trifolii with white clover in New Zealand pasture soils

PubMed Central

Tillard, Guyléne; van Ham, Robert; Ballard, Ross; Farquharson, Elizabeth; Gerard, Emily; Geurts, Rene; Brown, Matthew; Ridgway, Hayley; O’Callaghan, Maureen

2018-01-01

Biological nitrogen fixation through the legume-rhizobia symbiosis is important for sustainable pastoral production. In New Zealand, the most widespread and valuable symbiosis occurs between white clover (Trifolium repens L.) and Rhizobium leguminosarum bv. trifolii (Rlt). As variation in the population size (determined by most probable number assays; MPN) and effectiveness of N-fixation (symbiotic potential; SP) of Rlt in soils may affect white clover performance, the extent in variation in these properties was examined at three different spatial scales: (1) From 26 sites across New Zealand, (2) at farm-wide scale, and (3) within single fields. Overall, Rlt populations ranged from 95 to >1 x 108 per g soil, with variation similar at the three spatial scales assessed. For almost all samples, there was no relationship between rhizobia population size and ability of the population to fix N during legume symbiosis (SP). When compared with the commercial inoculant strain, the SP of soils ranged between 14 to 143% efficacy. The N-fixing ability of rhizobia populations varied more between samples collected from within a single hill country field (0.8 ha) than between 26 samples collected from diverse locations across New Zealand. Correlations between SP and calcium and aluminium content were found in all sites, except within a dairy farm field. Given the general lack of association between SP and MPN, and high spatial variability of SP at single field scale, provision of advice for treating legume seed with rhizobia based on field-average MPN counts needs to be carefully considered. PMID:29489845

Ecological correlates of group-size variation in a resource-defense ungulate, the sedentary guanaco.

PubMed

Marino, Andrea; Baldi, Ricardo

2014-01-01

For large herbivores, predation-risk, habitat structure and population density are often reported as major determinants of group size variation within and between species. However, whether the underlying causes of these relationships imply an ecological adaptation or are the result of a purely mechanistic process in which fusion and fragmentation events only depend on the rate of group meeting, is still under debate. The aim of this study was to model guanaco family and bachelor group sizes in contrasting ecological settings in order to test hypotheses regarding the adaptive significance of group-size variation. We surveyed guanaco group sizes within three wildlife reserves located in eastern Patagonia where guanacos occupy a mosaic of grasslands and shrublands. Two of these reserves have been free from predators for decades while in the third, pumas often prey on guanacos. All locations have experienced important changes in guanaco abundance throughout the study offering the opportunity to test for density effects. We found that bachelor group size increased with increasing density, as expected by the mechanistic approach, but was independent of habitat structure or predation risk. In contrast, the smaller and territorial family groups were larger in the predator-exposed than in the predator-free locations, and were larger in open grasslands than in shrublands. However, the influence of population density on these social units was very weak. Therefore, family group data supported the adaptive significance of group-size variation but did not support the mechanistic idea. Yet, the magnitude of the effects was small and between-population variation in family group size after controlling for habitat and predation was negligible, suggesting that plasticity of these social units is considerably low. Our results showed that different social units might respond differentially to local ecological conditions, supporting two contrasting hypotheses in a single species, and highlight the importance of taking into account the proximate interests and constraints to which group members may be exposed to when deriving predictions about group-size variation.

Adaptive harvest management for the Svalbard population of Pink-Footed Geese: 2014 progress summary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Fred A.; Madsen, J.

2015-01-01

During the summer of 2013 we computed an optimal harvest strategy for the 3-year period 2013 – 2015. The strategy suggested that the appropriate annual harvest quota is 15 thousand. The 1-year harvest strategy calculated to determine whether an emergency closure of the hunting season is required this year suggested an allowable harvest of 25.0 thousand; thus, a hunting-season closure is not warranted.  If the harvest quota of 15 thousand were met in the coming hunting season, the next population count would be expected to be 71.0 thousand.  If only the most recent 4-year mean harvest were realized (11.3 thousand), a population size of 74.8 thousand would be expected.  Simulations suggest that it will take approximately seven years at current harvest levels to reduce population size to the goal of 60 thousand.  However, it is possible that the extension of the forthcoming hunting season in Denmark could result in a total harvest approaching 15 thousand; in this case, simulations suggest it would only take about three years to reach the goal.

Size Matters — Determinants of Modern, Community-Oriented Mental Health Services

PubMed Central

Ala-Nikkola, Taina; Pirkola, Sami; Kontio, Raija; Joffe, Grigori; Pankakoski, Maiju; Malin, Maili; Sadeniemi, Minna; Kaila, Minna; Wahlbeck, Kristian

2014-01-01

Governances, structures and contents of mental health services are being reformed across countries. There is a need for data to support those changes. The aim of this study was to explore the quality, i.e., diversity and community orientation, and quantity, i.e., personnel resources, of mental health and substance abuse services (MHS) and evaluate correlation between population needs and quality and quantity of MHS. The European Service Mapping Schedule—Revised (ESMS-R) was used to classify mental health and substance abuse services in southern Finland. Municipal-level aggregate data, local data on unemployment rate, length of education, age of retirement, proportion of single households, alcohol sales and a composite mental health index were used as indicators of population mental health needs. Population size correlated strongly with service diversity, explaining 84% of the variance. Personnel resources did not associate with diversity or community orientation. The indicators of mental health services need did not have the expected association with quality and quantity of services. In terms of service organization, the results may support larger population bases, at least 150,000 adult inhabitants, when aiming for higher diversity. PMID:25153471

A Temporal Perspective on the Interplay of Demography and Selection on Deleterious Variation in Humans

PubMed Central

Koch, Evan; Novembre, John

2017-01-01

When mutations have small effects on fitness, population size plays an important role in determining the amount and nature of deleterious genetic variation. The extent to which recent population size changes have impacted deleterious variation in humans has been a question of considerable interest and debate. An emerging consensus is that the Out-of-Africa bottleneck and subsequent growth events have been too short to cause meaningful differences in genetic load between populations; though changes in the number and average frequencies of deleterious variants have taken place. To provide more support for this view and to offer additional insight into the divergent evolution of deleterious variation across populations, we numerically solve time-inhomogeneous diffusion equations and study the temporal dynamics of the frequency spectra in models of population size change for modern humans. We observe how the response to demographic change differs by the strength of selection, and we then assess whether similar patterns are observed in exome sequence data from 33,370 and 5203 individuals of non-Finnish European and West African ancestry, respectively. Our theoretical results highlight how even simple summaries of the frequency spectrum can have complex responses to demographic change. These results support the finding that some apparent discrepancies between previous results have been driven by the behaviors of the precise summaries of deleterious variation. Further, our empirical results make clear the difficulty of inferring slight differences in frequency spectra using recent next-generation sequence data. PMID:28159863

Stabilizing Selection, Purifying Selection, and Mutational Bias in Finite Populations

PubMed Central

Charlesworth, Brian

2013-01-01

Genomic traits such as codon usage and the lengths of noncoding sequences may be subject to stabilizing selection rather than purifying selection. Mutations affecting these traits are often biased in one direction. To investigate the potential role of stabilizing selection on genomic traits, the effects of mutational bias on the equilibrium value of a trait under stabilizing selection in a finite population were investigated, using two different mutational models. Numerical results were generated using a matrix method for calculating the probability distribution of variant frequencies at sites affecting the trait, as well as by Monte Carlo simulations. Analytical approximations were also derived, which provided useful insights into the numerical results. A novel conclusion is that the scaled intensity of selection acting on individual variants is nearly independent of the effective population size over a wide range of parameter space and is strongly determined by the logarithm of the mutational bias parameter. This is true even when there is a very small departure of the mean from the optimum, as is usually the case. This implies that studies of the frequency spectra of DNA sequence variants may be unable to distinguish between stabilizing and purifying selection. A similar investigation of purifying selection against deleterious mutations was also carried out. Contrary to previous suggestions, the scaled intensity of purifying selection with synergistic fitness effects is sensitive to population size, which is inconsistent with the general lack of sensitivity of codon usage to effective population size. PMID:23709636

Eco-evolutionary feedbacks, adaptive dynamics and evolutionary rescue theory

PubMed Central

Ferriere, Regis; Legendre, Stéphane

2013-01-01

Adaptive dynamics theory has been devised to account for feedbacks between ecological and evolutionary processes. Doing so opens new dimensions to and raises new challenges about evolutionary rescue. Adaptive dynamics theory predicts that successive trait substitutions driven by eco-evolutionary feedbacks can gradually erode population size or growth rate, thus potentially raising the extinction risk. Even a single trait substitution can suffice to degrade population viability drastically at once and cause ‘evolutionary suicide’. In a changing environment, a population may track a viable evolutionary attractor that leads to evolutionary suicide, a phenomenon called ‘evolutionary trapping’. Evolutionary trapping and suicide are commonly observed in adaptive dynamics models in which the smooth variation of traits causes catastrophic changes in ecological state. In the face of trapping and suicide, evolutionary rescue requires that the population overcome evolutionary threats generated by the adaptive process itself. Evolutionary repellors play an important role in determining how variation in environmental conditions correlates with the occurrence of evolutionary trapping and suicide, and what evolutionary pathways rescue may follow. In contrast with standard predictions of evolutionary rescue theory, low genetic variation may attenuate the threat of evolutionary suicide and small population sizes may facilitate escape from evolutionary traps. PMID:23209163

[A comparison of convenience sampling and purposive sampling].

PubMed

Suen, Lee-Jen Wu; Huang, Hui-Man; Lee, Hao-Hsien

2014-06-01

Convenience sampling and purposive sampling are two different sampling methods. This article first explains sampling terms such as target population, accessible population, simple random sampling, intended sample, actual sample, and statistical power analysis. These terms are then used to explain the difference between "convenience sampling" and purposive sampling." Convenience sampling is a non-probabilistic sampling technique applicable to qualitative or quantitative studies, although it is most frequently used in quantitative studies. In convenience samples, subjects more readily accessible to the researcher are more likely to be included. Thus, in quantitative studies, opportunity to participate is not equal for all qualified individuals in the target population and study results are not necessarily generalizable to this population. As in all quantitative studies, increasing the sample size increases the statistical power of the convenience sample. In contrast, purposive sampling is typically used in qualitative studies. Researchers who use this technique carefully select subjects based on study purpose with the expectation that each participant will provide unique and rich information of value to the study. As a result, members of the accessible population are not interchangeable and sample size is determined by data saturation not by statistical power analysis.

Quantifying the Human Impacts on Papua New Guinea Reef Fish Communities across Space and Time.

PubMed

Drew, Joshua A; Amatangelo, Kathryn L; Hufbauer, Ruth A

2015-01-01

Describing the drivers of species loss and of community change are important goals in both conservation and ecology. However, it is difficult to determine whether exploited species decline due to direct effects of harvesting or due to other environmental perturbations brought about by proximity to human populations. Here we quantify differences in species richness of coral reef fish communities along a human population gradient in Papua New Guinea to understand the relative impacts of fishing and environmental perturbation. Using data from published species lists we categorize the reef fishes as either fished or non-fished based on their body size and reports from the published literature. Species diversity for both fished and non-fished groups decreases as the size of the local human population increases, and this relationship is stronger in species that are fished. Additionally, comparison of modern and museum collections show that modern reef communities have proportionally fewer fished species relative to 19th century ones. Together these findings show that the reef fish communities of Papua New Guinea experience multiple anthropogenic stressors and that even at low human population levels targeted species experience population declines across both time and space.

Population modeling for furbearer management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, D.H.; Sanderson, G.C.

1982-01-01

The management of furbearers has become increasingly complex as greater demands are placed on their populations. Correspondingly, needs for information to use in management have increased. Inadequate information leads the manager to err on the conservative side; unless the size of the 'harvestable surplus' is known, the population cannot be fully exploited. Conversely, information beyond what is needed becomes an unaffordable luxury. Population modeling has proven useful for organizing information on numerous game animals. Modeling serves to determine if information of the right kind and proper amount is being gathered; systematizes data collection, data interpretation, and decision making; and permits more effective management and better utilization of game populations. This report briefly reviews the principles of population modeling, describes what has been learned from previous modeling efforts on furbearers, and outlines the potential role of population modeling in furbearer management.

Homoplasy and mutation model at microsatellite loci and their consequences for population genetics analysis.

PubMed

Estoup, Arnaud; Jarne, Philippe; Cornuet, Jean-Marie

2002-09-01

Homoplasy has recently attracted the attention of population geneticists, as a consequence of the popularity of highly variable stepwise mutating markers such as microsatellites. Microsatellite alleles generally refer to DNA fragments of different size (electromorphs). Electromorphs are identical in state (i.e. have identical size), but are not necessarily identical by descent due to convergent mutation(s). Homoplasy occurring at microsatellites is thus referred to as size homoplasy. Using new analytical developments and computer simulations, we first evaluate the effect of the mutation rate, the mutation model, the effective population size and the time of divergence between populations on size homoplasy at the within and between population levels. We then review the few experimental studies that used various molecular techniques to detect size homoplasious events at some microsatellite loci. The relationship between this molecularly accessible size homoplasy size and the actual amount of size homoplasy is not trivial, the former being considerably influenced by the molecular structure of microsatellite core sequences. In a third section, we show that homoplasy at microsatellite electromorphs does not represent a significant problem for many types of population genetics analyses realized by molecular ecologists, the large amount of variability at microsatellite loci often compensating for their homoplasious evolution. The situations where size homoplasy may be more problematic involve high mutation rates and large population sizes together with strong allele size constraints.

Is early osteoarthritis associated with differences in joint congruence?

PubMed Central

Conconi, Michele; Halilaj, Eni; Castelli, Vincenzo Parenti; Crisco, Joseph J.

2014-01-01

Previous studies suggest that osteoarthritis (OA) is related to abnormal or excessive articular contact stress. The peak pressure resulting from an applied load is determined by many factors, among which is shape and relative position and orientation of the articulating surfaces or, referring to a more common nomenclature, joint congruence. It has been hypothesized that anatomical differences may be among the causes of OA. Individuals with less congruent joints would likely develop higher peak pressure and thus would be more exposed to the risk of OA onset. The aim of this work was to determine if the congruence of the first carpometacarpal (CMC) joint differs with the early onset of OA or with sex, as the female population has a higher incidence of OA. 59 without and 38 with early OA were CT-scanned with their dominant or arthritic hand in a neutral configuration. The proposed measure of joint congruence is both shape and size dependent. The correlation of joint congruence with pathology and sex was analyzed both before and after normalization for joint size. We found a significant correlation between joint congruence and sex due to the sex-related differences in size. The observed correlation disappeared after normalization. Although joint congruence increased with size, it did not correlate significantly with the onset of early OA. Differences in joint congruence in this population may not be a primary cause of OA onset or predisposition, at least for the CMC joint. PMID:25468667

Is early osteoarthritis associated with differences in joint congruence?

PubMed

Conconi, Michele; Halilaj, Eni; Parenti Castelli, Vincenzo; Crisco, Joseph J

2014-12-18

Previous studies suggest that osteoarthritis (OA) is related to abnormal or excessive articular contact stress. The peak pressure resulting from an applied load is determined by many factors, among which is shape and relative position and orientation of the articulating surfaces or, referring to a more common nomenclature, joint congruence. It has been hypothesized that anatomical differences may be among the causes of OA. Individuals with less congruent joints would likely develop higher peak pressure and thus would be more exposed to the risk of OA onset. The aim of this work was to determine if the congruence of the first carpometacarpal (CMC) joint differs with the early onset of OA or with sex, as the female population has a higher incidence of OA. 59 without and 38 with early OA were CT-scanned with their dominant or arthritic hand in a neutral configuration. The proposed measure of joint congruence is both shape and size dependent. The correlation of joint congruence with pathology and sex was analyzed both before and after normalization for joint size. We found a significant correlation between joint congruence and sex due to the sex-related differences in size. The observed correlation disappeared after normalization. Although joint congruence increased with size, it did not correlate significantly with the onset of early OA. Differences in joint congruence in this population may not be a primary cause of OA onset or predisposition, at least for the CMC joint. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population dynamics of aberrant chromosome 1 in mice.

PubMed

Sabantsev, I; Spitsin, O; Agulnik, S; Ruvinsky, A

1993-05-01

Natural populations of two semispecies of house mouse, Mus musculus domesticus and M.m. musculus, were found to be polymorphic for an aberrant chromosome 1 bearing a large inserted block of homogeneously staining heterochromatin. Strong meiotic drive for the aberrant chromosome from M.m. musculus was previously observed in heterozygous female mice. There are at least three meiotic drive levels determined by different allelic variants of distorter. Homozygotes had low viability and females showed low fertility. Both homo- and heterozygous males had normal fertility and their segregation patterns did not deviate from normal. Computer simulations were performed of the dynamics of aberrant chromosome 1 in demes and populations. The data demonstrate that a spontaneous mutation (inversion) of an aberrant chromosome 1, once arisen, has a high probability of spreading in a population at high coefficients of meiotic drive and migration. In the long-term, the population attains a stationary state which is determined by the drive level and migration intensity. The state of stable genotypic equilibrium is independent of deme and population size, as well as of the initial concentration of the aberrant chromosome. As populations initially polymorphic for the distorters approach the stationary state, the stronger distorter is eliminated. The frequencies of the aberrant chromosome determined by computer analysis agree well with those obtained for the studied Asian M.m. musculus populations. The evolutionary pathways for the origin and fixation of the aberrant chromosome in natural populations are considered.

Consumptive and nonconsumptive effects of cannibalism in fluctuating age-structured populations.

PubMed

Wissinger, Scott A; Whiteman, Howard H; Denoël, Mathieu; Mumford, Miranda L; Aubee, Catherine B

2010-02-01

Theory and empirical studies suggest that cannibalism in age-structured populations can regulate recruitment depending on the intensity of intraspecific competition between cannibals and victims and the nature of the cannibalism window, i.e., which size classes interact as cannibals and victims. Here we report on a series of experiments that quantify that window for age-structured populations of salamander larvae and paedomorphic adults. We determined body size limits on cannibalism in microcosms and then the consumptive and nonconsumptive (injuries, foraging and activity, diet, growth) effects on victims in mesocosms with seminatural levels of habitat complexity and alternative prey. We found that cannibalism by the largest size classes (paedomorphs and > or = age 3+ yr larvae) occurs mainly on young-of-the-year (YOY) victims. Surviving YOY and other small larvae had increased injuries, reduced activity levels, and reduced growth rates in the presence of cannibals. Data on YOY survival in an experiment in which we manipulated the density of paedomorphs combined with historical data on the number of cannibals in natural populations indicate that dominant cohorts of paedomorphs can cause observed recruitment failures. Dietary data indicate that ontogenetic shifts in diet should preclude strong intraspecific competition between YOY and cannibals in this species. Thus our results are consistent with previous empirical and theoretical work that suggests that recruitment regulation by cannibalism is most likely when YOY are vulnerable to cannibalism but have low dietary overlap with cannibals. Understanding the role of cannibalism in regulating recruitment in salamander populations is timely, given the widespread occurrences of amphibian decline. Previous studies have focused on extrinsic (including anthropogenic) factors that affect amphibian population dynamics, whereas the data presented here combined with long-term field observations suggest the potential for intrinsically driven population cycles.

Extent of Linkage Disequilibrium and Effective Population Size in Four South African Sanga Cattle Breeds.

PubMed

Makina, Sithembile O; Taylor, Jeremy F; van Marle-Köster, Este; Muchadeyi, Farai C; Makgahlela, Mahlako L; MacNeil, Michael D; Maiwashe, Azwihangwisi

2015-01-01

Knowledge on the extent of linkage disequilibrium (LD) in livestock populations is essential to determine the minimum distance between markers required for effective coverage when conducting genome-wide association studies (GWAS). This study evaluated the extent of LD, persistence of allelic phase and effective population size (Ne) for four Sanga cattle breeds in South Africa including the Afrikaner (n = 44), Nguni (n = 54), Drakensberger (n = 47), and Bonsmara breeds (n = 46), using Angus (n = 31) and Holstein (n = 29) as reference populations. We found that moderate LD extends up to inter-marker distances of 40-60 kb in Angus (0.21) and Holstein (0.21) and up to 100 kb in Afrikaner (0.20). This suggests that genomic selection and association studies performed within these breeds using an average inter-marker r (2)≥ 0.20 would require about 30,000-50,000 SNPs. However, r (2)≥ 0.20 extended only up to 10-20 kb in the Nguni and Drakensberger and 20-40 kb in the Bonsmara indicating that 75,000 to 150,000 SNPs would be necessary for GWAS in these breeds. Correlation between alleles at contiguous loci indicated that phase was not strongly preserved between breeds. This suggests the need for breed-specific reference populations in which a much greater density of markers should be scored to identify breed specific haplotypes which may then be imputed into multi-breed commercial populations. Analysis of effective population size based on the extent of LD, revealed Ne = 95 (Nguni), Ne = 87 (Drakensberger), Ne = 77 (Bonsmara), and Ne = 41 (Afrikaner). Results of this study form the basis for implementation of genomic selection programs in the Sanga breeds of South Africa.

Extent of Linkage Disequilibrium and Effective Population Size in Four South African Sanga Cattle Breeds

PubMed Central

Makina, Sithembile O.; Taylor, Jeremy F.; van Marle-Köster, Este; Muchadeyi, Farai C.; Makgahlela, Mahlako L.; MacNeil, Michael D.; Maiwashe, Azwihangwisi

2015-01-01

Knowledge on the extent of linkage disequilibrium (LD) in livestock populations is essential to determine the minimum distance between markers required for effective coverage when conducting genome-wide association studies (GWAS). This study evaluated the extent of LD, persistence of allelic phase and effective population size (Ne) for four Sanga cattle breeds in South Africa including the Afrikaner (n = 44), Nguni (n = 54), Drakensberger (n = 47), and Bonsmara breeds (n = 46), using Angus (n = 31) and Holstein (n = 29) as reference populations. We found that moderate LD extends up to inter-marker distances of 40–60 kb in Angus (0.21) and Holstein (0.21) and up to 100 kb in Afrikaner (0.20). This suggests that genomic selection and association studies performed within these breeds using an average inter-marker r2≥ 0.20 would require about 30,000–50,000 SNPs. However, r2≥ 0.20 extended only up to 10–20 kb in the Nguni and Drakensberger and 20–40 kb in the Bonsmara indicating that 75,000 to 150,000 SNPs would be necessary for GWAS in these breeds. Correlation between alleles at contiguous loci indicated that phase was not strongly preserved between breeds. This suggests the need for breed-specific reference populations in which a much greater density of markers should be scored to identify breed specific haplotypes which may then be imputed into multi-breed commercial populations. Analysis of effective population size based on the extent of LD, revealed Ne = 95 (Nguni), Ne = 87 (Drakensberger), Ne = 77 (Bonsmara), and Ne = 41 (Afrikaner). Results of this study form the basis for implementation of genomic selection programs in the Sanga breeds of South Africa. PMID:26648975

Does gene flow constrain adaptive divergence or vice versa? A test using ecomorphology and sexual isolation in Timema cristinae walking-sticks.

PubMed

Nosil, P; Crespi, B J

2004-01-01

Population differentiation often reflects a balance between divergent natural selection and the opportunity for homogenizing gene flow to erode the effects of selection. However, during ecological speciation, trait divergence results in reproductive isolation and becomes a cause, rather than a consequence, of reductions in gene flow. To assess both the causes and the reproductive consequences of morphological differentiation, we examined morphological divergence and sexual isolation among 17 populations of Timema cristinae walking-sticks. Individuals from populations adapted to using Adenostoma as a host plant tended to exhibit smaller overall body size, wide heads, and short legs relative to individuals using Ceonothus as a host. However, there was also significant variation in morphology among populations within host-plant species. Mean trait values for each single population could be reliably predicted based upon host-plant used and the potential for homogenizing gene flow, inferred from the size of the neighboring population using the alternate host and mitochondrial DNA estimates of gene flow. Morphology did not influence the probability of copulation in between-population mating trials. Thus, morphological divergence is facilitated by reductions in gene flow, but does not cause reductions in gene flow via the evolution of sexual isolation. Combined with rearing data indicating that size and shape have a partial genetic basis, evidence for parallel origins of the host-associated forms, and inferences from functional morphology, these results indicate that morphological divergence in T. cristinae reflects a balance between the effects of host-specific natural selection and gene flow. Our findings illustrate how data on mating preferences can help determine the causal associations between trait divergence and levels of gene flow.

The Effects of Population Size Histories on Estimates of Selection Coefficients from Time-Series Genetic Data.

PubMed

Jewett, Ethan M; Steinrücken, Matthias; Song, Yun S

2016-11-01

Many approaches have been developed for inferring selection coefficients from time series data while accounting for genetic drift. These approaches have been motivated by the intuition that properly accounting for the population size history can significantly improve estimates of selective strengths. However, the improvement in inference accuracy that can be attained by modeling drift has not been characterized. Here, by comparing maximum likelihood estimates of selection coefficients that account for the true population size history with estimates that ignore drift by assuming allele frequencies evolve deterministically in a population of infinite size, we address the following questions: how much can modeling the population size history improve estimates of selection coefficients? How much can mis-inferred population sizes hurt inferences of selection coefficients? We conduct our analysis under the discrete Wright-Fisher model by deriving the exact probability of an allele frequency trajectory in a population of time-varying size and we replicate our results under the diffusion model. For both models, we find that ignoring drift leads to estimates of selection coefficients that are nearly as accurate as estimates that account for the true population history, even when population sizes are small and drift is high. This result is of interest because inference methods that ignore drift are widely used in evolutionary studies and can be many orders of magnitude faster than methods that account for population sizes. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Taxonomic and geographic patterns of decline for threatened and endangered species in the United States.

PubMed

Leidner, Allison K; Neel, Maile C

2011-08-01

Species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (i.e., listed species) have declined to the point that the probability of their extinction is high. The decline of these species, however, may manifest itself in different ways, including reductions in geographic range, number of populations, or overall abundance. Understanding the pattern of decline can help managers assess extinction probability and define recovery objectives. Although quantitative data on changes in geographic range, number of populations, and abundance usually do not exist for listed species, more often qualitative data can be obtained. We used qualitative data in recovery plans for federally listed species to determine whether each listed species declined in range size, number of populations, or abundance relative to historical levels. We calculated the proportion of listed species in each state (or equivalent) that declined in each of those ways. Nearly all listed species declined in abundance, and range size or number of populations declined in approximately 80% of species for which those data were available. Patterns of decline, however, differed taxonomically and geographically. Declines in range were more common among vertebrates than plants, whereas population extirpations were more common among plants. Invertebrates had high incidence of range and population declines. Narrowly distributed plants and invertebrates may be subject to acute threats that may result in population extirpations, whereas vertebrates may be affected by chronic threats that reduce the extent and size of populations. Additionally, in the eastern United States and U.S. coastal areas, where the level of land conversion is high, a greater percentage of species' ranges declined and more populations were extirpated than in other areas. Species in the Southwest, especially plants, had fewer range and population declines than other areas. Such relations may help in the selection of species' recovery criteria. © 2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands.

PubMed

Dunn, Michael J; Jackson, Jennifer A; Adlard, Stacey; Lynnes, Amanda S; Briggs, Dirk R; Fox, Derren; Waluda, Claire M

2016-01-01

We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum), chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum) and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum). The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a gradual increase in gentoo breeding pairs.

Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands

PubMed Central

Dunn, Michael J.; Jackson, Jennifer A.; Adlard, Stacey; Lynnes, Amanda S.; Briggs, Dirk R.; Fox, Derren; Waluda, Claire M.

2016-01-01

We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum), chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum) and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum). The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a gradual increase in gentoo breeding pairs. PMID:27783668

Genetic differentiation over a small spatial scale of the sand fly Lutzomyia vexator (Diptera: Psychodidae).

PubMed

Neal, Allison T; Ross, Max S; Schall, Jos J; Vardo-Zalik, Anne M

2016-10-18

The geographic scale and degree of genetic differentiation for arthropod vectors that transmit parasites play an important role in the distribution, prevalence and coevolution of pathogens of human and wildlife significance. We determined the genetic diversity and population structure of the sand fly Lutzomyia vexator over spatial scales from 0.56 to 3.79 km at a study region in northern California. The study was provoked by observations of differentiation at fine spatial scales of a lizard malaria parasite vectored by Lu. vexator. A microsatellite enrichment/next-generation sequencing protocol was used to identify variable microsatellite loci within the genome of Lu. vexator. Alleles present at these loci were examined in four populations of Lu. vexator in Hopland, CA. Population differentiation was assessed using Fst and D (of Cavalli-Sforza and Edwards), and the program Structure was used to determine the degree of subdivision present. The effective population size for the sand fly populations was also calculated. Eight microsatellite markers were characterized and revealed high genetic diversity (uHe = 0.79-0.92, Na = 12-24) and slight but significant differentiation across the fine spatial scale examined (average pairwise D = 0.327; F ST  = 0.0185 (95 % bootstrapped CI: 0.0102-0.0264). Even though the insects are difficult to capture using standard methods, the estimated population size was thousands per local site. The results argue that Lu. vexator at the study sites are abundant and not highly mobile, which may influence the overall transmission dynamics of the lizard malaria parasite, Plasmodium mexicanum, and other parasites transmitted by this species.

Solving the puzzle of yeast survival in ephemeral nectar systems: exponential growth is not enough.

PubMed

Hausmann, Sebastian L; Tietjen, Britta; Rillig, Matthias C

2017-12-01

Flower nectar is a sugar-rich ephemeral habitat for microorganisms. Nectar-borne yeasts are part of the microbial community and can affect pollination by changing nectar chemistry, attractiveness to pollinators or flower temperature if yeast population densities are high. Pollinators act as dispersal agents in this system; however, pollination events lead potentially to shrinking nectar yeast populations. We here examine how sufficiently high cell densities of nectar yeast can develop in a flower. In laboratory experiments, we determined the remaining fraction of nectar yeast cells after nectar removal, and used honeybees to determine the number of transmitted yeast cells from one flower to the next. The results of these experiments directly fed into a simulation model providing an insight into movement and colonization ecology of nectar yeasts. We found that cell densities only reached an ecologically relevant size for an intermediate pollination probability. Too few pollination events reduce yeast inoculation rate and too many reduce yeast population size strongly. In addition, nectar yeasts need a trait combination of at least an intermediate growth rate and an intermediate remaining fraction to compensate for highly frequent decimations. Our results can be used to predict nectar yeast dispersal, growth and consequently their ecological effects. © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Are Hispanics the new ’Threat’? Minority Group Threat and Fear of Crime in Miami-Dade County*

PubMed Central

Eitle, David; Taylor, John

2008-01-01

Research examining the determinants of fear of crime has arguably raised more questions than it has answered. This exploratory study addresses one of the compelling questions that remains unanswered: what is the role of ethnicity, both at the community and individual levels, in understanding variation in fear of crime? Guided by racial or minority group threat theory, we examine the relative sizes of both the Black and Latino populations as indicators of minority group threat to determine their role in understanding individual fear of crime in a city where Latinos represent a much larger proportion of the population than Blacks (Miami-Dade County, Florida). Furthermore, the race and ethnic backgrounds of the respondents are also considered to evaluate their role in understanding variation in the fear of crime. Using both Census tract-level data and data collected from a NIDA sponsored grant that was part of a larger study about physically disabled residents, our findings reveal that in Miami-Dade County where Blacks are highly segregated from whites, the relative size of the Latino population is a predictor of fear of crime among white residents. Implications of this finding are considered, including a call for more nuanced research focusing on the predictors of fear of crime within multiethnic communities. PMID:19227693

Optimum strata boundaries and sample sizes in health surveys using auxiliary variables

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Using convenient stratification criteria such as geographical regions or other natural conditions like age, gender, etc., is not beneficial in order to maximize the precision of the estimates of variables of interest. Thus, one has to look for an efficient stratification design to divide the whole population into homogeneous strata that achieves higher precision in the estimation. In this paper, a procedure for determining Optimum Stratum Boundaries (OSB) and Optimum Sample Sizes (OSS) for each stratum of a variable of interest in health surveys is developed. The determination of OSB and OSS based on the study variable is not feasible in practice since the study variable is not available prior to the survey. Since many variables in health surveys are generally skewed, the proposed technique considers the readily-available auxiliary variables to determine the OSB and OSS. This stratification problem is formulated into a Mathematical Programming Problem (MPP) that seeks minimization of the variance of the estimated population parameter under Neyman allocation. It is then solved for the OSB by using a dynamic programming (DP) technique. A numerical example with a real data set of a population, aiming to estimate the Haemoglobin content in women in a national Iron Deficiency Anaemia survey, is presented to illustrate the procedure developed in this paper. Upon comparisons with other methods available in literature, results reveal that the proposed approach yields a substantial gain in efficiency over the other methods. A simulation study also reveals similar results. PMID:29621265

Optimum strata boundaries and sample sizes in health surveys using auxiliary variables.

PubMed

Reddy, Karuna Garan; Khan, Mohammad G M; Khan, Sabiha

2018-01-01

Using convenient stratification criteria such as geographical regions or other natural conditions like age, gender, etc., is not beneficial in order to maximize the precision of the estimates of variables of interest. Thus, one has to look for an efficient stratification design to divide the whole population into homogeneous strata that achieves higher precision in the estimation. In this paper, a procedure for determining Optimum Stratum Boundaries (OSB) and Optimum Sample Sizes (OSS) for each stratum of a variable of interest in health surveys is developed. The determination of OSB and OSS based on the study variable is not feasible in practice since the study variable is not available prior to the survey. Since many variables in health surveys are generally skewed, the proposed technique considers the readily-available auxiliary variables to determine the OSB and OSS. This stratification problem is formulated into a Mathematical Programming Problem (MPP) that seeks minimization of the variance of the estimated population parameter under Neyman allocation. It is then solved for the OSB by using a dynamic programming (DP) technique. A numerical example with a real data set of a population, aiming to estimate the Haemoglobin content in women in a national Iron Deficiency Anaemia survey, is presented to illustrate the procedure developed in this paper. Upon comparisons with other methods available in literature, results reveal that the proposed approach yields a substantial gain in efficiency over the other methods. A simulation study also reveals similar results.

Determining the linkage of disease-resistance genes to molecular markers: the LOD-SCORE method revisited with regard to necessary sample sizes.

PubMed

Hühn, M

1995-05-01

Some approaches to molecular marker-assisted linkage detection for a dominant disease-resistance trait based on a segregating F2 population are discussed. Analysis of two-point linkage is carried out by the traditional measure of maximum lod score. It depends on (1) the maximum-likelihood estimate of the recombination fraction between the marker and the disease-resistance gene locus, (2) the observed absolute frequencies, and (3) the unknown number of tested individuals. If one replaces the absolute frequencies by expressions depending on the unknown sample size and the maximum-likelihood estimate of recombination value, the conventional rule for significant linkage (maximum lod score exceeds a given linkage threshold) can be resolved for the sample size. For each sub-population used for linkage analysis [susceptible (= recessive) individuals, resistant (= dominant) individuals, complete F2] this approach gives a lower bound for the necessary number of individuals required for the detection of significant two-point linkage by the lod-score method.

Muskellunge growth potential in northern Wisconsin: implications for trophy management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faust, Matthew D.; Isermann, Daniel A.; Luehring, Mark A.; Hansen, Michael J.

2015-01-01

The growth potential of Muskellunge Esox masquinongy was evaluated by back-calculating growth histories from cleithra removed from 305 fish collected during 1995–2011 to determine whether it was consistent with trophy management goals in northern Wisconsin. Female Muskellunge had a larger mean asymptotic length (49.8 in) than did males (43.4 in). Minimum ultimate size of female Muskellunge (45.0 in) equaled the 45.0-in minimum length limit, but was less than the 50.0-in minimum length limit used on Wisconsin's trophy waters, while the minimum ultimate size of male Muskellunge (34.0 in) was less than the statewide minimum length limit. Minimum reproductive sizes for both sexes were less than Wisconsin's trophy minimum length limits. Mean growth potential of female Muskellunge in northern Wisconsin appears to be sufficient for meeting trophy management objectives and angler expectations. Muskellunge in northern Wisconsin had similar growth potential to those in Ontario populations, but lower growth potential than Minnesota's populations, perhaps because of genetic and environmental differences.

Effective population sizes of a major vector of human diseases, Aedes aegypti.

PubMed

Saarman, Norah P; Gloria-Soria, Andrea; Anderson, Eric C; Evans, Benjamin R; Pless, Evlyn; Cosme, Luciano V; Gonzalez-Acosta, Cassandra; Kamgang, Basile; Wesson, Dawn M; Powell, Jeffrey R

2017-12-01

The effective population size ( N e ) is a fundamental parameter in population genetics that determines the relative strength of selection and random genetic drift, the effect of migration, levels of inbreeding, and linkage disequilibrium. In many cases where it has been estimated in animals, N e is on the order of 10%-20% of the census size. In this study, we use 12 microsatellite markers and 14,888 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to empirically estimate N e in Aedes aegypti , the major vector of yellow fever, dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. We used the method of temporal sampling to estimate N e on a global dataset made up of 46 samples of Ae. aegypti that included multiple time points from 17 widely distributed geographic localities. Our N e estimates for Ae. aegypti fell within a broad range (~25-3,000) and averaged between 400 and 600 across all localities and time points sampled. Adult census size (N c ) estimates for this species range between one and five thousand, so the N e / N c ratio is about the same as for most animals. These N e values are lower than estimates available for other insects and have important implications for the design of genetic control strategies to reduce the impact of this species of mosquito on human health.

Demographic collapse and low genetic diversity of the Irrawaddy dolphin population inhabiting the Mekong River

PubMed Central

Beasley, Isabel; Ackermann, Corinne Y.; Lieckfeldt, Dietmar; Ludwig, Arne; Ryan, Gerard E.; Bejder, Lars; Parra, Guido J.; Wolfensberger, Rebekka; Spencer, Peter B. S.

2018-01-01

In threatened wildlife populations, it is important to determine whether observed low genetic diversity may be due to recent anthropogenic pressure or the consequence of historic events. Historical size of the Irrawaddy dolphin (Orcaella brevirostris) population inhabiting the Mekong River is unknown and there is significant concern for long-term survival of the remaining population as a result of low abundance, slow reproduction rate, high neonatal mortality, and continuing anthropogenic threats. We investigated population structure and reconstructed the demographic history based on 60 Irrawaddy dolphins samples collected between 2001 and 2009. The phylogenetic analysis indicated reciprocal monophyly of Mekong River Orcaella haplotypes with respect to haplotypes from other populations, suggesting long-standing isolation of the Mekong dolphin population from other Orcaella populations. We found that at least 85% of all individuals in the two main study areas: Kratie and Stung Treng, bore the same mitochondrial haplotype. Out of the 21 microsatellite loci tested, only ten were polymorphic and exhibited very low levels of genetic diversity. Both individual and frequency-based approaches suggest very low and non-significant genetic differentiation of the Mekong dolphin population. Evidence for recent bottlenecks was equivocal. Some results suggested a recent exponential decline in the Mekong dolphin population, with the current size being only 5.2% of the ancestral population. In order for the Mekong dolphin population to have any potential for long-term survival, it is imperative that management priorities focus on preventing any further population fragmentation or genetic loss, reducing or eliminating anthropogenic threats, and promoting connectivity between all subpopulations. PMID:29298312

Bibliometric assessment of publication output of child and adolescent psychiatric/psychological affiliations between 2005 and 2010 based on the databases PubMed and Scopus.

PubMed

Albayrak, Ozgür; Föcker, Manuel; Wibker, Katrin; Hebebrand, Johannes

2012-06-01

We aimed to determine the quantitative scientific publication output of child and adolescent psychiatric/psychological affiliations during 2005-2010 by country based on both, "PubMed" and "Scopus" and performed a bibliometric qualitative evaluation for 2009 using "PubMed". We performed our search by affiliation related to child and adolescent psychiatric/psychological institutions using "PubMed". For the quantitative analysis for 2005-2010, we counted the number of abstracts. For the qualitative analysis for 2009 we derived the impact factor of each abstract's journal from "Journal Citation Reports". We related total impact factor scores to the gross domestic product (GDP) and population size of each country. Additionally, we used "Scopus" to determine the number of abstracts for each country that was identified via "PubMed" for 2009 and compared the ranking of countries between the two databases. 61 % of the publications between 2005 and 2010 originated from European countries and 26 % from the USA. After adjustment for GDP and population size, the ranking positions changed in favor of smaller European countries with a population size of less than 20 million inhabitants. The ranking of countries for the count of articles in 2009 as derived from "Scopus" was similar to that identified via the "PubMed" search. The performed search revealed only minor differences between "Scopus" and "PubMed" related to the ranking of countries. Our data indicate a sharp difference between countries with a high versus low GDP with regard to scientific publication output in child and adolescent psychiatry/psychology.

Geographic structure of adelie penguin populations: overlap in colony-specific foraging areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ainley, D.G.; Ribic, C.A.; Ballard, G.; Heath, S.; Gaffney, I.; Karl, B.J.; Barton, K.J.; Wilson, P.R.; Webb, S.

2004-01-01

In an investigation of the factors leading to geographic structuring among Ade??lie Penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) populations, we studied the size and overlap of colony-specific foraging areas within an isolated cluster of colonies. The study area, in the southwestern Ross Sea, included one large and three smaller colonies, ranging in size from 3900 to 135000 nesting pairs, clustered on Ross and Beaufort Islands. We used triangulation of radio signals from transmitters attached to breeding penguins to determine foraging locations and to define colony-specific foraging areas during the chick-provisioning period of four breeding seasons, 1997-2000. Colony populations (nesting pairs) were determined using aerial photography just after egg-laying; reproductive success was estimated by comparing ground counts of chicks fledged to the number of breeding pairs apparent in aerial photos. Foraging-trip duration, meal size, and adult body mass were estimated using RFID (radio frequency identification) tags and an automated reader and weighbridge. Chick growth was assessed by weekly weighing. We related the following variables to colony size: foraging distance, area, and duration; reproductive success; chick meal size and growth rate; and seasonal variation in adult body mass. We found that penguins foraged closest to their respective colonies, particularly at the smaller colonies. However, as the season progressed, foraging distance, duration, and area increased noticeably, especially at the largest colony. The foraging areas of the smaller colonies overlapped broadly, but very little foraging area overlap existed between the large colony and the smaller colonies, even though the foraging area of the large colony was well within range of the smaller colonies. Instead, the foraging areas of the smaller colonies shifted as that of the large colony grew. Colony size was not related to chick meal size, chick growth, or parental body mass. This differed from the year previous to the study, when foraging trips of the large colony were very long, parents lost mass, and chick meals were smaller. In light of existing data on prey abundance in neritic waters in Antarctica suggesting that krill are relatively evenly distributed and in high abundance in the Southern Ross Sea, we conclude that penguins depleted or changed the availability of their prey, that the degree of alteration was a function of colony size, and that the large colony affected the location (and perhaps ultimately the size) of foraging areas for the smaller colonies. It appears, therefore, that foraging dynamics play a role in the geographic structuring of colonies in this species. ?? 2004 by the Ecological Society of America.

Habitat use and home range of the endangered gold-spotted pond frog (Rana chosenica).

PubMed

Ra, Nam-Yong; Sung, Ha-Cheol; Cheong, Seokwan; Lee, Jung-Hyun; Eom, Junho; Park, Daesik

2008-09-01

Because of their complex life styles, amphibians and reptiles living in wetlands require both aquatic and terrestrial buffer zones in their protected conservation areas. Due to steep declines in wild populations, the gold-spotted pond frog (Rana chosenica) is listed as vulnerable by the IUCN. However, lack of data about its movements and use of habitat prevents effective conservation planning. To determine the habitat use and home range of this species, we radio-tracked 44 adult frogs for 37 days between 10 July and 4 Nov. 2007 to observe three different populations in the breeding season, non-breeding season, and late fall. The gold-spotted pond frog was very sedentary; its daily average movement was 9.8 m. Frogs stayed close to breeding ponds (within 6.6 m), and did not leave damp areas surrounding these ponds, except for dormancy migration to terrestrial sites such as dried crop fields. The average distance of dormancy migration of seven frogs from the edge of their breeding ponds was 32.0 m. The average size of an individual's home range was 713.8 m(2) (0.07 ha). The year-round population home range, which accounts for the home ranges of a population of frogs, was determined for two populations to be 8,765.0 m(2) (0.88 ha) and 3,700.9 m(2) (0.37 ha). Our results showed that to conserve this endangered species, appropriately sized wetlands and extended terrestrial buffer areas surrounding the wetlands (at least 1.33 ha, diameter 130 m) should be protected.

Influence of adaptive mutations, from thermal adaptation experiments, on the infection cycle of RNA bacteriophage Qβ.

PubMed

Kashiwagi, Akiko; Kadoya, Tamami; Kumasaka, Naoya; Kumagai, Tomofumi; Tsushima, Fumie Sano; Yomo, Tetsuya

2018-06-04

A population's growth rate is determined by multiple 'life history traits'. To quantitatively determine which life history traits should be improved to allow a living organism to adapt to an inhibitory environment is an important issue. Previously, we conducted thermal adaptation experiments on the RNA bacteriophage Qβ using three independent replicates and reported that all three end-point populations could grow at a temperature (43.6°C) that inhibited the growth of the ancestral strain. Even though the fitness values of the endpoint populations were almost the same, their genome sequence was not, indicating that the three thermally adapted populations may have different life history traits. In this study, we introduced each mutation observed in these three end-point populations into the cDNA of the Qβ genome and prepared three different mutants. Quantitative analysis showed that they tended to increase their fitness by increasing the adsorption rate to their host, shortening their latent period (i.e., the duration between phage infection and progeny release), and increasing the burst size (i.e., the number of progeny phages per infected cell), but all three mutants decreased their thermal stability. However, the degree to which these traits changed differed. The mutant with the least mutations showed a smaller decrease in thermal stability, the largest adsorption rate to the host, and the shortest latent period. These results indicated that several different adaptive routes exist by which Qβ can adapt to higher temperatures, even though Qβ is a simple RNA bacteriophage with a small genome size, encoding only four genes.

Horizontal Transfer Can Drive a Greater Transposable Element Load in Large Populations.

PubMed

Groth, Sam B; Blumenstiel, Justin P

2017-01-01

Genomes are comprised of contrasting domains of euchromatin and heterochromatin, and transposable elements (TEs) play an important role in defining these genomic regions. Therefore, understanding the forces that control TE abundance can help us understand the chromatin landscape of the genome. What determines the burden of TEs in populations? Some have proposed that drift plays a determining role. In small populations, mildly deleterious TE insertion alleles are allowed to fix, leading to increased copy number. However, it is not clear how the rate of exposure to new TE families, via horizontal transfer (HT), can contribute to broader patterns of genomic TE abundance. Here, using simulation and analytical approaches, we show that when the effects of drift are weak, exposure rate to new TE families via HT can be an important determinant of genomic copy number. If population exposure rate is proportional to population size, larger populations are expected to have a higher rate of exposure to rare HT events. This leads to the counterintuitive prediction that larger populations may carry a higher TE load. We also find that increased rates of recombination can lead to greater probabilities of TE establishment. This work has implications for our understanding of the evolution of chromatin landscapes, genome defense by RNA silencing, and recombination rates. © The American Genetic Association 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Physiological, Behavioral and Maternal Factors That Contribute to Size Variation in Larval Amphibian Populations

PubMed Central

Warne, Robin W.; Kardon, Adam; Crespi, Erica J.

2013-01-01

Size variance among similarly aged individuals within populations is a pattern common to many organisms that is a result of interactions between intrinsic and extrinsic traits of individuals. While genetic and maternal effects, as well as physiological and behavioral traits have been shown to contribute to size variation in animal populations, teasing apart the influence of such factors on individual growth rates remain a challenge. Furthermore, tracing the effects of these interactions across life stages and in shaping adult phenotypes also requires further exploration. In this study we investigated the relationship between genetics, hatching patterns, behaviors, neuroendocrine stress axis activity and variance in growth and metamorphosis among same-aged larval amphibians. Through parallel experiments we found that in the absence of conspecific interactions, hatch time and to a lesser extent egg clutch identity (i.e. genetics and maternal effects) influenced the propensity for growth and development in individual tadpoles and determined metamorphic traits. Within experimental groups we found that variance in growth rates was associated with size-dependent foraging behaviors and responses to food restriction. We also found an inverse relationship between glucocorticoid (GC) hormone levels and body mass and developmental stage among group-reared tadpoles, which suggests that GC expression plays a role in regulating differing within-population growth trajectories in response to density-dependent conditions. Taken together these findings suggest that factors that influence hatching conditions can have long-term effects on growth and development. These results also raise compelling questions regarding the extent to which maternal and genetic factors influence physiological and behavioral profiles in amphibians. PMID:24143188

Worldwide orthopaedic research activity 2010-2014: Publication rates in the top 15 orthopaedic journals related to population size and gross domestic product.

PubMed

Hohmann, Erik; Glatt, Vaida; Tetsworth, Kevin

2017-06-18

To perform a bibliometric analysis of publications rates in orthopedics in the top 15 orthopaedic journals. Based on their 2015 impact factor, the fifteen highest ranked orthopaedic journals between January 2010 and December 2014 were used to establish the total number of publications; cumulative impact factor points (IF) per country were determined, and normalized to population size, GDP, and GDP/capita, comparison to the median country output and the global leader. Twenty-three thousand and twenty-one orthopaedic articles were published, with 66 countries publishing. The United States had 8149 publications, followed by the United Kingdom (1644) and Japan (1467). The highest IF was achieved by the United States (24744), United Kingdom (4776), and Japan (4053). Normalized by population size Switzerland lead. Normalized by GDP, Croatia was the top achiever. Adjusting GDP/capita, for publications and IF, China, India, and the United States were the leaders. Adjusting for population size and GDP, 28 countries achieved numbers of publications to be considered at least equivalent with the median academic output. Adjusting GDP/capita only China and India reached the number of publications to be considered equivalent to the current global leader, the United States. Five countries were responsible for 60% of the orthopaedic research output over this 5-year period. After correcting for GDP/capita, only 28 of 66 countries achieved a publication rate equivalent to the median country. The United States, United Kingdom, South Korea, Japan, and Germany were the top five countries for both publication totals and cumulative impact factor points.

Common determinants of body size and eye size in chickens from an advanced intercross line.

PubMed

Prashar, Ankush; Hocking, Paul M; Erichsen, Jonathan T; Fan, Qiao; Saw, Seang Mei; Guggenheim, Jeremy A

2009-06-15

Myopia development is characterised by an increased axial eye length. Therefore, identifying factors that influence eye size may provide new insights into the aetiology of myopia. In humans, axial length is positively correlated to height and weight, and in mice, eye weight is positively correlated with body weight. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between eye size and body size in chickens from a genetic cross in which alleles with major effects on eye and body size were segregating. Chickens from a cross between a layer line (small body size and eye size) and a broiler line (large body and eye size) were interbred for 10 generations so that alleles for eye and body size would have the chance to segregate independently. At 3 weeks of age, 510 chicks were assessed using in vivo high resolution A-scan ultrasonography and keratometry. Equatorial eye diameter and eye weight were measured after enucleation. The variations in eye size parameters that could be explained by body weight (BW), body length (BL), head width (HW) and sex were examined using multiple linear regression. It was found that BW, BL and HW and sex together predicted 51-56% of the variation in eye weight, axial length, corneal radius, and equatorial eye diameter. By contrast, the same variables predicted only 22% of the variation in lens thickness. After adjusting for sex, the three body size parameters predicted 45-49% of the variation in eye weight, axial length, corneal radius, and eye diameter, but only 0.4% of the variation in lens thickness. In conclusion, about half of the variation in eye size in the chickens of this broiler-layer advanced intercross line is likely to be determined by pleiotropic genes that also influence body size. Thus, mapping the quantitative trait loci (QTL) that determine body size may be useful in understanding the genetic determination of eye size (a logical inference of this result is that the 20 or more genetic variants that have recently been shown to influence human height may also be found to influence axial eye length). Furthermore, adjusting for body size will be essential in mapping pure eye size QTL in this chicken population, and may also have value in mapping eye size QTL in humans.

Population growth enhances the mean fixation time of neutral mutations and the persistence of neutral variation.

PubMed

Waxman, D

2012-06-01

A fundamental result of population genetics states that a new mutation, at an unlinked neutral locus in a randomly mating diploid population, has a mean time of fixation of ∼4N(e) generations, where N(e) is the effective population size. This result is based on an assumption of fixed population size, which does not universally hold in natural populations. Here, we analyze such neutral fixations in populations of changing size within the framework of the diffusion approximation. General expressions are derived for the mean and variance of the fixation time in changing populations. Some explicit results are given for two cases: (i) the effective population size undergoes a sudden change, representing a sudden population expansion or a sudden bottleneck; (ii) the effective population changes linearly for a limited period of time and then remains constant. Additionally, a lower bound for the mean time of fixation is obtained for an effective population size that increases with time, and this is applied to exponentially growing populations. The results obtained in this work show, among other things, that for populations that increase in size, the mean time of fixation can be enhanced, sometimes substantially so, over 4N(e,0) generations, where N(e,0) is the effective population size at the time the mutation arises. Such an enhancement is associated with (i) an increased probability of neutral polymorphism in a population and (ii) an enhanced persistence of high-frequency neutral variation, which is the variation most likely to be observed.

Estimation of population size using open capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

McDonald, T.L.; Amstrup, Steven C.

2001-01-01

One of the most important needs for wildlife managers is an accurate estimate of population size. Yet, for many species, including most marine species and large mammals, accurate and precise estimation of numbers is one of the most difficult of all research challenges. Open-population capture-recapture models have proven useful in many situations to estimate survival probabilities but typically have not been used to estimate population size. We show that open-population models can be used to estimate population size by developing a Horvitz-Thompson-type estimate of population size and an estimator of its variance. Our population size estimate keys on the probability of capture at each trap occasion and therefore is quite general and can be made a function of external covariates measured during the study. Here we define the estimator and investigate its bias, variance, and variance estimator via computer simulation. Computer simulations make extensive use of real data taken from a study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Beaufort Sea. The population size estimator is shown to be useful because it was negligibly biased in all situations studied. The variance estimator is shown to be useful in all situations, but caution is warranted in cases of extreme capture heterogeneity.

The Effect of Recurrent Floods on Genetic Composition of Marble Trout Populations

PubMed Central

Pujolar, José Martin; Vincenzi, Simone; Zane, Lorenzo; Jesensek, Dusan; De Leo, Giulio A.; Crivelli, Alain J.

2011-01-01

A changing global climate can threaten the diversity of species and ecosystems. We explore the consequences of catastrophic disturbances in determining the evolutionary and demographic histories of secluded marble trout populations in Slovenian streams subjected to weather extremes, in particular recurrent flash floods and debris flows causing massive mortalities. Using microsatellite data, a pattern of extreme genetic differentiation was found among populations (global F ST of 0.716), which exceeds the highest values reported in freshwater fish. All locations showed low levels of genetic diversity as evidenced by low heterozygosities and a mean of only 2 alleles per locus, with few or no rare alleles. Many loci showed a discontinuous allele distribution, with missing alleles across the allele size range, suggestive of a population contraction. Accordingly, bottleneck episodes were inferred for all samples with a reduction in population size of 3–4 orders of magnitude. The reduced level of genetic diversity observed in all populations implies a strong impact of genetic drift, and suggests that along with limited gene flow, genetic differentiation might have been exacerbated by recurrent mortalities likely caused by flash flood and debris flows. Due to its low evolutionary potential the species might fail to cope with an intensification and altered frequency of flash flood events predicted to occur with climate change. PMID:21931617

Modeling habitat split: landscape and life history traits determine amphibian extinction thresholds.

PubMed

Fonseca, Carlos Roberto; Coutinho, Renato M; Azevedo, Franciane; Berbert, Juliana M; Corso, Gilberto; Kraenkel, Roberto A

2013-01-01

Habitat split is a major force behind the worldwide decline of amphibian populations, causing community change in richness and species composition. In fragmented landscapes, natural remnants, the terrestrial habitat of the adults, are frequently separated from streams, the aquatic habitat of the larvae. An important question is how this landscape configuration affects population levels and if it can drive species to extinction locally. Here, we put forward the first theoretical model on habitat split which is particularly concerned on how split distance - the distance between the two required habitats - affects population size and persistence in isolated fragments. Our diffusive model shows that habitat split alone is able to generate extinction thresholds. Fragments occurring between the aquatic habitat and a given critical split distance are expected to hold viable populations, while fragments located farther away are expected to be unoccupied. Species with higher reproductive success and higher diffusion rate of post-metamorphic youngs are expected to have farther critical split distances. Furthermore, the model indicates that negative effects of habitat split are poorly compensated by positive effects of fragment size. The habitat split model improves our understanding about spatially structured populations and has relevant implications for landscape design for conservation. It puts on a firm theoretical basis the relation between habitat split and the decline of amphibian populations.

Low mitochondrial DNA diversity of Japanese Polled and Kuchinoshima feral cattle.

PubMed

Mannen, Hideyuki; Yonesaka, Riku; Noda, Aoi; Shimogiri, Takeshi; Oshima, Ichiro; Katahira, Kiyomi; Kanemaki, Misao; Kunieda, Tetsuo; Inayoshi, Yousuke; Mukai, Fumio; Sasazaki, Shinji

2017-05-01

This study aims to estimate the mitochondrial genetic diversity and structure of Japanese Polled and Kuchinoshima feral cattle, which are maintained in small populations. We determined the mitochondrial DMA (mtDNA) displacement loop (D-loop) sequences for both cattle populations and analyzed these in conjunction with previously published data from Northeast Asian cattle populations. Our findings showed that Japanese native cattle have a predominant, Asian-specific mtDNA haplogroup T4 with high frequencies (0.43-0.81). This excluded Kuchinoshima cattle (32 animals), which had only one mtDNA haplotype belonging to the haplogroup T3. Japanese Polled showed relatively lower mtDNA diversity in the average sequence divergence (0.0020) than other Wagyu breeds (0.0036-0.0047). Japanese Polled have been maintained in a limited area of Yamaguchi, and the population size is now less than 200. Therefore, low mtDNA diversity in the Japanese Polled could be explained by the decreasing population size in the last three decades. We found low mtDNA diversity in both Japanese Polled and Kuchinoshima cattle. The genetic information obtained in this study will be useful for maintaining these populations and for understanding the origin of Japanese native cattle. © 2016 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

Kinship-based politics and the optimal size of kin groups

PubMed Central

Hammel, E. A.

2005-01-01

Kin form important political groups, which change in size and relative inequality with demographic shifts. Increases in the rate of population growth increase the size of kin groups but decrease their inequality and vice versa. The optimal size of kin groups may be evaluated from the marginal political product (MPP) of their members. Culture and institutions affect levels and shapes of MPP. Different optimal group sizes, from different perspectives, can be suggested for any MPP schedule. The relative dominance of competing groups is determined by their MPP schedules. Groups driven to extremes of sustainability may react in Malthusian fashion, including fission and fusion, or in Boserupian fashion, altering social technology to accommodate changes in size. The spectrum of alternatives for actors and groups, shaped by existing institutions and natural and cultural selection, is very broad. Nevertheless, selection may result in survival of particular kinds of political structures. PMID:16091466

Kinship-based politics and the optimal size of kin groups.

PubMed

Hammel, E A

2005-08-16

Kin form important political groups, which change in size and relative inequality with demographic shifts. Increases in the rate of population growth increase the size of kin groups but decrease their inequality and vice versa. The optimal size of kin groups may be evaluated from the marginal political product (MPP) of their members. Culture and institutions affect levels and shapes of MPP. Different optimal group sizes, from different perspectives, can be suggested for any MPP schedule. The relative dominance of competing groups is determined by their MPP schedules. Groups driven to extremes of sustainability may react in Malthusian fashion, including fission and fusion, or in Boserupian fashion, altering social technology to accommodate changes in size. The spectrum of alternatives for actors and groups, shaped by existing institutions and natural and cultural selection, is very broad. Nevertheless, selection may result in survival of particular kinds of political structures.

Killer Whale Nuclear Genome and mtDNA Reveal Widespread Population Bottleneck during the Last Glacial Maximum

PubMed Central

Moura, Andre E.; Janse van Rensburg, Charlene; Pilot, Malgorzata; Tehrani, Arman; Best, Peter B.; Thornton, Meredith; Plön, Stephanie; de Bruyn, P.J. Nico; Worley, Kim C.; Gibbs, Richard A.; Dahlheim, Marilyn E.; Hoelzel, Alan Rus

2014-01-01

Ecosystem function and resilience is determined by the interactions and independent contributions of individual species. Apex predators play a disproportionately determinant role through their influence and dependence on the dynamics of prey species. Their demographic fluctuations are thus likely to reflect changes in their respective ecological communities and habitat. Here, we investigate the historical population dynamics of the killer whale based on draft nuclear genome data for the Northern Hemisphere and mtDNA data worldwide. We infer a relatively stable population size throughout most of the Pleistocene, followed by an order of magnitude decline and bottleneck during the Weichselian glacial period. Global mtDNA data indicate that while most populations declined, at least one population retained diversity in a stable, productive ecosystem off southern Africa. We conclude that environmental changes during the last glacial period promoted the decline of a top ocean predator, that these events contributed to the pattern of diversity among extant populations, and that the relatively high diversity of a population currently in productive, stable habitat off South Africa suggests a role for ocean productivity in the widespread decline. PMID:24497033

Genetic variation in insecticide tolerance in a population of southern leopard frogs (Rana sphenocephala): Implications for amphibian conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bridges, C.M.; Semlitsch, R.D.

2001-01-01

Currently, conservation efforts are devoted to determining the extent and the causes of the decline of many amphibian species worldwide. Human impacts frequently degrade amphibian habitat and have been implicated in many declines. Because genetic variance is critical in determining the persistence of a species in a changing environment, we examined the amount of genetic variability present in a single population for tolerance to an environmental stressor. We examined the amount of genetic variability among full- and half-sib families in a single population of southern leopard frogs (Rana sphenocephala) with respect to their tolerance to lethal concentrations of the agricultural chemical, carbaryl. Analysis of time-to-death data indicated significant differences among full-sib families and suggests a large amount of variability present in the responses to this environmental stressor. Significant differences in responses among half-sib families indicated that there is additive genetic variance. These data suggest that this population may have the ability to adapt to environmental stressors. It is possible that declines of amphibian populations in the western United States may be attributed to low genetic variability resulting from limited migration among populations and small population sizes.

Analysis of CTG repeat length variation in the DMPK gene in the general population and the molecular diagnosis of myotonic dystrophy type 1 in Malaysia.

PubMed

Ambrose, Kathlin K; Ishak, Taufik; Lian, Lay-Hoong; Goh, Khean-Jin; Wong, Kum-Thong; Ahmad-Annuar, Azlina; Thong, Meow-Keong

2017-03-31

The lack of epidemiological data and molecular diagnostic services in Malaysia has hampered the setting-up of a comprehensive management plan for patients with myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1), leading to delayed diagnosis, treatment and support for patients and families. The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of DM1 in the 3 major ethnic groups in Malaysia and evaluate the feasibility of a single tube triplet-primed PCR (TP-PCR) method for diagnosis of DM1 in Malaysia. We used PCR to determine the size of CTG repeats in 377 individuals not known to be affected by DM and 11 DM1 suspected patients, recruited from a tertiary hospital in Kuala Lumpur. TP-PCR was performed on selected samples, followed by Southern blot hybridisation of PCR amplified fragments to confirm and estimate the size of CTG expansion. The number of individuals not known to be affected by DM with (CTG) >18 was determined according to ethnic group and as a whole population. The χ 2 test was performed to compare the distribution of (CTG) >18 with 12 other populations. Additionally, the accuracy of TP-PCR in detecting CTG expansion in 11 patients with DM1 was determined by comparing the results with that from Southern blot hybridisation. Of the 754 chromosomes studied, (CTG) >18 frequency of 3.60%, 1.57% and 4.00% in the Malay, Chinese and Indian subpopulations, respectively, was detected, showing similarities to data from Thai, Taiwanese and Kuwaiti populations. We also successfully detected CTG expansions in 9 patients using the TP-PCR method followed by the estimation of CTG expansion size via Southern blot hybridisation. The results show a low DM1 prevalence in Malaysia with the possibility of underdiagnosis and demonstrates the feasibility of using a clinical and TP-PCR-based approach for rapid and cost-effective DM1 diagnosis in developing countries. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Analysis of CTG repeat length variation in the DMPK gene in the general population and the molecular diagnosis of myotonic dystrophy type 1 in Malaysia

PubMed Central

Ambrose, Kathlin K; Ishak, Taufik; Lian, Lay-Hoong; Goh, Khean-Jin; Wong, Kum-Thong; Ahmad-Annuar, Azlina; Thong, Meow-Keong

2017-01-01

Objective The lack of epidemiological data and molecular diagnostic services in Malaysia has hampered the setting-up of a comprehensive management plan for patients with myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1), leading to delayed diagnosis, treatment and support for patients and families. The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of DM1 in the 3 major ethnic groups in Malaysia and evaluate the feasibility of a single tube triplet-primed PCR (TP-PCR) method for diagnosis of DM1 in Malaysia. Design, setting and participants We used PCR to determine the size of CTG repeats in 377 individuals not known to be affected by DM and 11 DM1 suspected patients, recruited from a tertiary hospital in Kuala Lumpur. TP-PCR was performed on selected samples, followed by Southern blot hybridisation of PCR amplified fragments to confirm and estimate the size of CTG expansion. Outcome measures The number of individuals not known to be affected by DM with (CTG)>18 was determined according to ethnic group and as a whole population. The χ2 test was performed to compare the distribution of (CTG)>18 with 12 other populations. Additionally, the accuracy of TP-PCR in detecting CTG expansion in 11 patients with DM1 was determined by comparing the results with that from Southern blot hybridisation. Results Of the 754 chromosomes studied, (CTG)>18 frequency of 3.60%, 1.57% and 4.00% in the Malay, Chinese and Indian subpopulations, respectively, was detected, showing similarities to data from Thai, Taiwanese and Kuwaiti populations. We also successfully detected CTG expansions in 9 patients using the TP-PCR method followed by the estimation of CTG expansion size via Southern blot hybridisation. Conclusions The results show a low DM1 prevalence in Malaysia with the possibility of underdiagnosis and demonstrates the feasibility of using a clinical and TP-PCR-based approach for rapid and cost-effective DM1 diagnosis in developing countries. PMID:28363916

Biology of Grapsus grapsus (L innaeus, 1758) (Brachyura, Grapsidae) in the Saint Peter and Saint Paul Archipelago, Equatorial Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freire, A. S.; Pinheiro, M. A. A.; Karam-Silva, H.; Teschima, M. M.

2011-09-01

Eleven expeditions were undertaken to the Saint Peter and Saint Paul Archipelago to study the reproductive biology of Grapsus grapsus, providing additional information on limb mutilation and carapace colour. MATURE software was used to estimate morphological maturity, while gonadal analyses were conducted to estimate physiological maturity. The puberty moult took place at larger size in males (51.4 mm of carapace length) than in females (33.8 mm), while physiological maturity occurred at a similar size in males (38.4 mm) and in females (33.4 mm). Above 50 mm, the proportion of red males increased in the population, indicating that functional maturity is also related to colour pattern. Small habitat and high local population density contributed to the high rate of cannibalism. The low diversity of food items, absence of predators of large crabs and high geographic isolation are the determinants of unique behavioural and biological characteristics observed in the G. grapsus population.

Evolution of body size in Galapagos marine iguanas.

PubMed

Wikelski, Martin

2005-10-07

Body size is one of the most important traits of organisms and allows predictions of an individual's morphology, physiology, behaviour and life history. However, explaining the evolution of complex traits such as body size is difficult because a plethora of other traits influence body size. Here I review what we know about the evolution of body size in a group of island reptiles and try to generalize about the mechanisms that shape body size. Galapagos marine iguanas occupy all 13 larger islands in this Pacific archipelago and have maximum island body weights between 900 and 12 000g. The distribution of body sizes does not match mitochondrial clades, indicating that body size evolves independently of genetic relatedness. Marine iguanas lack intra- and inter-specific food competition and predators are not size-specific, discounting these factors as selective agents influencing body size. Instead I hypothesize that body size reflects the trade-offs between sexual and natural selection. We found that sexual selection continuously favours larger body sizes. Large males establish display territories and some gain over-proportional reproductive success in the iguanas' mating aggregations. Females select males based on size and activity and are thus responsible for the observed mating skew. However, large individuals are strongly selected against during El Niño-related famines when dietary algae disappear from the intertidal foraging areas. We showed that differences in algae sward ('pasture') heights and thermal constraints on large size are causally responsible for differences in maximum body size among populations. I hypothesize that body size in many animal species reflects a trade-off between foraging constraints and sexual selection and suggest that future research could focus on physiological and genetic mechanisms determining body size in wild animals. Furthermore, evolutionary stable body size distributions within populations should be analysed to better understand selection pressures on individual body size.

Evolution of body size in Galapagos marine iguanas

PubMed Central

Wikelski, Martin

2005-01-01

Body size is one of the most important traits of organisms and allows predictions of an individual's morphology, physiology, behaviour and life history. However, explaining the evolution of complex traits such as body size is difficult because a plethora of other traits influence body size. Here I review what we know about the evolution of body size in a group of island reptiles and try to generalize about the mechanisms that shape body size. Galapagos marine iguanas occupy all 13 larger islands in this Pacific archipelago and have maximum island body weights between 900 and 12 000 g. The distribution of body sizes does not match mitochondrial clades, indicating that body size evolves independently of genetic relatedness. Marine iguanas lack intra- and inter-specific food competition and predators are not size-specific, discounting these factors as selective agents influencing body size. Instead I hypothesize that body size reflects the trade-offs between sexual and natural selection. We found that sexual selection continuously favours larger body sizes. Large males establish display territories and some gain over-proportional reproductive success in the iguanas' mating aggregations. Females select males based on size and activity and are thus responsible for the observed mating skew. However, large individuals are strongly selected against during El Niño-related famines when dietary algae disappear from the intertidal foraging areas. We showed that differences in algae sward (‘pasture’) heights and thermal constraints on large size are causally responsible for differences in maximum body size among populations. I hypothesize that body size in many animal species reflects a trade-off between foraging constraints and sexual selection and suggest that future research could focus on physiological and genetic mechanisms determining body size in wild animals. Furthermore, evolutionary stable body size distributions within populations should be analysed to better understand selection pressures on individual body size. PMID:16191607

Comparison of Literacy Campaigns in Socialistic and Democratic Countries.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sauder, Ruth

The literature on mass literacy campaigns conducted in various countries over the past several decades was surveyed to determine if efforts in socialist countries were more successful than those in democratic countries. Five socialist and five democratic countries were matched on the basis of population, geographic proximity, or size. The pairs…

Seed size and nutrient content variation for twenty-one invasive and native California and Oregon taxa of the tribe Cynareae (Asteraceae)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Seed characteristics are important for seed dispersal, seedling growth, and seedling survival, but there is little information on seed characteristics for several taxa of the tribe Cynareae (Family: Asteraceae). We determined seed characteristics and their variation from natural populations of twen...

75 FR 16428 - Endangered Species; File Nos. 15112 and 13307-02

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-01

... determine the size and composition of populations of sea turtles found in the commercial fishing areas of... ecology of these species and allow more reliable assessments of commercial fishery impacts. Annually up to... and spatial patterns of sea turtle habitat use, ecology, and genetic origin within the Dry Tortugas...

Exact Interval Estimation, Power Calculation, and Sample Size Determination in Normal Correlation Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shieh, Gwowen

2006-01-01

This paper considers the problem of analysis of correlation coefficients from a multivariate normal population. A unified theorem is derived for the regression model with normally distributed explanatory variables and the general results are employed to provide useful expressions for the distributions of simple, multiple, and partial-multiple…

Lunar Meteoroid Impact Observations and the Flux of Kilogram-Sized Meteoroids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suggs, Rob; Cooke, Bill; Koehler, Heather; Moser, Danielle; Suggs, Ron; Swift, Wes

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews NASA's program that observes and investigates the impact of meteoroids on the mooon. The meteor showers dominate the environment in the 100g to kilograms range. With a sufficient number of observed impacts the technique outlined can help determine the population index for some of the meteoroid showers.

The male handicap: male-biased mortality explains skewed sex ratios in brown trout embryos.

PubMed

Morán, P; Labbé, L; Garcia de Leaniz, C

2016-12-01

Juvenile sex ratios are often assumed to be equal for many species with genetic sex determination, but this has rarely been tested in fish embryos due to their small size and absence of sex-specific markers. We artificially crossed three populations of brown trout and used a recently developed genetic marker for sexing the offspring of both pure and hybrid crosses. Sex ratios (SR = proportion of males) varied widely one month after hatching ranging from 0.15 to 0.90 (mean = 0.39 ± 0.03). Families with high survival tended to produce balanced or male-biased sex ratios, but SR was significantly female-biased when survival was low, suggesting that males sustain higher mortality during development. No difference in SR was found between pure and hybrid families, but the existence of sire × dam interactions suggests that genetic incompatibility may play a role in determining sex ratios. Our findings have implications for animal breeding and conservation because skewed sex ratios will tend to reduce effective population size and bias selection estimates. © 2016 The Authors.

Reviewing RAWP. Variations in admission rates: implications for equitable allocation of resources.

PubMed Central

Bevan, G; Ingram, R

1987-01-01

The review of the Resource Allocation Working Party (RAWP) formula by the National Health Service Management Board has considered the method used to account for cross boundary flows between health authorities. There is no consensus on how this should be done subregionally, as it raises the unresolved problem of the best method of estimating the size of catchment populations. Different methods produce different population sizes when the admission rates of individuals living in different districts vary. The National Health Service/Department of Health and Social Security acute services working group on performance indicators recently considered the assumptions made by different methods in terms of admission thresholds set by hospital clinicians. More complicated methods of assessing catchment areas seem to offer little advantage over the simplest method, but none of the methods answer the underlying questions of what truly determines admission rates and whether higher admission rates are better than lower ones. Empirical research into variations in admission rates and their relation to outcomes is important for determining the fair allocation of resources in future. PMID:3120865

mtDNA variation predicts population size in humans and reveals a major Southern Asian chapter in human prehistory.

PubMed

Atkinson, Quentin D; Gray, Russell D; Drummond, Alexei J

2008-02-01

The relative timing and size of regional human population growth following our expansion from Africa remain unknown. Human mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) diversity carries a legacy of our population history. Given a set of sequences, we can use coalescent theory to estimate past population size through time and draw inferences about human population history. However, recent work has challenged the validity of using mtDNA diversity to infer species population sizes. Here we use Bayesian coalescent inference methods, together with a global data set of 357 human mtDNA coding-region sequences, to infer human population sizes through time across 8 major geographic regions. Our estimates of relative population sizes show remarkable concordance with the contemporary regional distribution of humans across Africa, Eurasia, and the Americas, indicating that mtDNA diversity is a good predictor of population size in humans. Plots of population size through time show slow growth in sub-Saharan Africa beginning 143-193 kya, followed by a rapid expansion into Eurasia after the emergence of the first non-African mtDNA lineages 50-70 kya. Outside Africa, the earliest and fastest growth is inferred in Southern Asia approximately 52 kya, followed by a succession of growth phases in Northern and Central Asia (approximately 49 kya), Australia (approximately 48 kya), Europe (approximately 42 kya), the Middle East and North Africa (approximately 40 kya), New Guinea (approximately 39 kya), the Americas (approximately 18 kya), and a second expansion in Europe (approximately 10-15 kya). Comparisons of relative regional population sizes through time suggest that between approximately 45 and 20 kya most of humanity lived in Southern Asia. These findings not only support the use of mtDNA data for estimating human population size but also provide a unique picture of human prehistory and demonstrate the importance of Southern Asia to our recent evolutionary past.

Flux of Kilogram-Sized Meteoroids from Lunar Impact Monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suggs, Robert; Suggs, Ron; Cooke, William; McNamara, Heather; Diekmann, Anne; Moser, Danielle; Swift, Wesley

2008-01-01

Routine lunar impact monitoring has harvested over 110 impacts in 2 years of observations using 0.25, 0.36 and 0.5 m telescopes and low-light-level video cameras. The night side of the lunar surface provides a large collecting area for detecting these impacts and allows estimation of the flux of meteoroids down to a limiting luminous energy. In order to determine the limiting mass for these observations, models of the sporadic meteoroid environment were used to determine the velocity distribution and new measurements of luminous efficiency were made at the Ames Vertical Gun Range. The flux of meteoroids in this size range has implications for Near Earth Object populations as well as for estimating impact ejecta risk for future lunar missions.

Microcrater investigations on lunar rock 12002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartung, J. B.; Hodges, F.; Horz, F.; Storzer, D.

1975-01-01

Relative ages of 26 submillimeter-sized pits from an equilibrium population in rock 12002 were measured by determining the densities of pits 0.7 microns in diameter and larger on the submillimeter-sized pits. Production rates for 0.7 micron diameter pits were determined from solar-flare track exposure age measurements, and the data for rock 12002 are consistent with previously obtained data for sample 15205 if a lower meteoroid flux prevailed in the past. Metal mounds or spherules within a microcrater pit glass were found to have a meteoritic composition, and an impact lining consisting of protruding crystals was observed. The crystals apparently developed during exposure to space immediately after the 200-micron diameter pit was formed by impact into an olivine grain.

Physician utilization and expenditures in a Medicaid Population

PubMed Central

Buczko, William

1986-01-01

The determinants of physician visit utilization and expenditures for the full-year Medicaid enrollees in the State Medicaid household survey portion of the National Medical Care Utilization and Expenditure Survey are analyzed in this article. The regression analyses for the probability of a physician visit, for number of physician visits, and for physician visit expenditures underscore the importance of perceived health status as a determinant of both physician utilization and expenditures. Other important determinants of physician utilization and expenditures were regular source of care, State, enrollment group, sex, and family size. PMID:10312009

Influence of Population Density on Offspring Number and Size in Burying Beetles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rauter, Claudia M.

2010-01-01

This laboratory exercise investigates the influence of population density on offspring number and size in burying beetles. Students test the theoretical predictions that brood size declines and offspring size increases when competition over resources becomes stronger with increasing population density. Students design the experiment, collect and…

AFLP markers reveal high clonal diversity and extreme longevity in four key arctic-alpine species.

PubMed

de Witte, Lucienne C; Armbruster, Georg F J; Gielly, Ludovic; Taberlet, Pierre; Stöcklin, Jürg

2012-03-01

We investigated clonal diversity, genet size structure and genet longevity in populations of four arctic-alpine plants (Carex curvula, Dryas octopetala, Salix herbacea and Vaccinium uliginosum) to evaluate their persistence under past climatic oscillations and their potential resistance to future climate change. The size and number of genets were determined by an analysis of amplified fragment length polymorphisms and a standardized sampling design in several European arctic-alpine populations, where these species are dominant in the vegetation. Genet age was estimated by dividing the size by the annual horizontal size increment from in situ growth measurements. Clonal diversity was generally high but differed among species, and the frequency distribution of genet size was strongly left-skewed. The largest C. curvula genet had an estimated minimum age of c. 4100 years and a maximum age of c. 5000 years, although 84.8% of the genets in this species were <200 years old. The oldest genets of D. octopetala, S. herbacea and V. uliginosum were found to be at least 500, 450 and 1400 years old, respectively. These results indicate that individuals in the studied populations have survived pronounced climatic oscillations, including the Little Ice Age and the postindustrial warming. The presence of genets in all size classes and the dominance of presumably young individuals suggest repeated recruitment over time, a precondition for adaptation to changing environmental conditions. Together, persistence and continuous genet turnover may ensure maximum ecosystem resilience. Thus, our results indicate that long-lived clonal plants in arctic-alpine ecosystems can persist, despite considerable climatic change. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Estimating sample size for landscape-scale mark-recapture studies of North American migratory tree bats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellison, Laura E.; Lukacs, Paul M.

2014-01-01

Concern for migratory tree-roosting bats in North America has grown because of possible population declines from wind energy development. This concern has driven interest in estimating population-level changes. Mark-recapture methodology is one possible analytical framework for assessing bat population changes, but sample size requirements to produce reliable estimates have not been estimated. To illustrate the sample sizes necessary for a mark-recapture-based monitoring program we conducted power analyses using a statistical model that allows reencounters of live and dead marked individuals. We ran 1,000 simulations for each of five broad sample size categories in a Burnham joint model, and then compared the proportion of simulations in which 95% confidence intervals overlapped between and among years for a 4-year study. Additionally, we conducted sensitivity analyses of sample size to various capture probabilities and recovery probabilities. More than 50,000 individuals per year would need to be captured and released to accurately determine 10% and 15% declines in annual survival. To detect more dramatic declines of 33% or 50% survival over four years, then sample sizes of 25,000 or 10,000 per year, respectively, would be sufficient. Sensitivity analyses reveal that increasing recovery of dead marked individuals may be more valuable than increasing capture probability of marked individuals. Because of the extraordinary effort that would be required, we advise caution should such a mark-recapture effort be initiated because of the difficulty in attaining reliable estimates. We make recommendations for what techniques show the most promise for mark-recapture studies of bats because some techniques violate the assumptions of mark-recapture methodology when used to mark bats.

Elevational differences in developmental plasticity determine phenological responses of grasshoppers to recent climate warming.

PubMed

Buckley, Lauren B; Nufio, César R; Kirk, Evan M; Kingsolver, Joel G

2015-06-22

Annual species may increase reproduction by increasing adult body size through extended development, but risk being unable to complete development in seasonally limited environments. Synthetic reviews indicate that most, but not all, species have responded to recent climate warming by advancing the seasonal timing of adult emergence or reproduction. Here, we show that 50 years of climate change have delayed development in high-elevation, season-limited grasshopper populations, but advanced development in populations at lower elevations. Developmental delays are most pronounced for early-season species, which might benefit most from delaying development when released from seasonal time constraints. Rearing experiments confirm that population, elevation and temperature interact to determine development time. Population differences in developmental plasticity may account for variability in phenological shifts among adults. An integrated consideration of the full life cycle that considers local adaptation and plasticity may be essential for understanding and predicting responses to climate change. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk.

PubMed

Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

2016-01-01

The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation.

Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk

PubMed Central

Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

2016-01-01

The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation. PMID:26986004

Morphometric study of the lumbar spinal canal in the Korean population.

PubMed

Lee, H M; Kim, N H; Kim, H J; Chung, I H

1995-08-01

The anatomic dimensions of the vertebral body and spinal canal of the lumbar spine were analyzed in Koreans. To determine the normal dimension of the lumbar spinal canal in Koreans, to determine whether there are any racial differences in the morphometry of the lumbar spinal canal, and to provide criteria for diagnosing spinal stenosis in the Far Eastern Asian. Some radiologic and anatomic studies have been conducted regarding the size of the lumbar spinal canal of whites and blacks in western and African countries. One-thousand-eight-hundred measurements were performed on the transverse and sagittal diameters of vertebral bodies and spinal canals using complete sets of 90 lumbar vertebrae. The mean mid-sagittal diameter of the lumbar spinal canal in the Korean population was less than that measured in white and African populations, but there was no significant differences between the Korean, white, and African populations regarding the transverse diameter of the lumbar spinal canal. The mid-sagittal diameter of the lumbar spinal canal is narrowest in the Far Eastern Asian population; the radiologic criteria of spinal stenosis should be reconsidered for these people.

Spatial variation in egg size of a top predator: Interplay of body size and environmental factors?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Louzao, Maite; Igual, José M.; Genovart, Meritxell; Forero, Manuela G.; Hobson, Keith A.; Oro, Daniel

2008-09-01

It is expected that nearby populations are constrained by the same ecological features shaping in turn similarity in their ecological traits. Here, we studied the spatio-temporal variability in egg size among local populations of the critically endangered Balearic shearwater Puffinus mauretanicus, a top marine predator endemic to the western Mediterranean region. Specifically we assessed whether this trait was influenced by maternal body size, as an indicator of a genetic component, and feeding ecology (through stable-carbon and nitrogen-isotope measurements), as an indicator of environmental factors. We found that egg size varied among local populations, an unexpected result at such a small spatial scale. Body size differences at the local population level only partially explained such differences. Blood isotope measurements also differed among local populations. Values of δ 15N suggested inter-population differences in trophic level, showing a similar general pattern with egg size, and suggesting a nutritional link between them whereby egg size was affected by differences in feeding resources and/or behaviour. Values of δ 13C suggested that local populations did not differ in foraging habits with respect to benthic- vs. pelagic-based food-webs. Egg size did not vary among years as did breeding performance, suggesting that a differential temporal window could affect both breeding parameters in relation to food availability. The absence of a relationship between breeding performance and egg size suggested that larger eggs might only confer an advantage during harsh conditions. Alternatively parental quality could greatly affect breeding performance. We showed that inter-population differences in egg size could be influenced by both body size and environmental factors.

Sample size and power calculations for detecting changes in malaria transmission using antibody seroconversion rate.

PubMed

Sepúlveda, Nuno; Paulino, Carlos Daniel; Drakeley, Chris

2015-12-30

Several studies have highlighted the use of serological data in detecting a reduction in malaria transmission intensity. These studies have typically used serology as an adjunct measure and no formal examination of sample size calculations for this approach has been conducted. A sample size calculator is proposed for cross-sectional surveys using data simulation from a reverse catalytic model assuming a reduction in seroconversion rate (SCR) at a given change point before sampling. This calculator is based on logistic approximations for the underlying power curves to detect a reduction in SCR in relation to the hypothesis of a stable SCR for the same data. Sample sizes are illustrated for a hypothetical cross-sectional survey from an African population assuming a known or unknown change point. Overall, data simulation demonstrates that power is strongly affected by assuming a known or unknown change point. Small sample sizes are sufficient to detect strong reductions in SCR, but invariantly lead to poor precision of estimates for current SCR. In this situation, sample size is better determined by controlling the precision of SCR estimates. Conversely larger sample sizes are required for detecting more subtle reductions in malaria transmission but those invariantly increase precision whilst reducing putative estimation bias. The proposed sample size calculator, although based on data simulation, shows promise of being easily applicable to a range of populations and survey types. Since the change point is a major source of uncertainty, obtaining or assuming prior information about this parameter might reduce both the sample size and the chance of generating biased SCR estimates.

Robust organelle size extractions from elastic scattering measurements of single cells (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannaday, Ashley E.; Draham, Robert; Berger, Andrew J.

2016-04-01

The goal of this project is to estimate non-nuclear organelle size distributions in single cells by measuring angular scattering patterns and fitting them with Mie theory. Simulations have indicated that the large relative size distribution of organelles (mean:width≈2) leads to unstable Mie fits unless scattering is collected at polar angles less than 20 degrees. Our optical system has therefore been modified to collect angles down to 10 degrees. Initial validations will be performed on polystyrene bead populations whose size distributions resemble those of cell organelles. Unlike with the narrow bead distributions that are often used for calibration, we expect to see an order-of-magnitude improvement in the stability of the size estimates as the minimum angle decreases from 20 to 10 degrees. Scattering patterns will then be acquired and analyzed from single cells (EMT6 mouse cancer cells), both fixed and live, at multiple time points. Fixed cells, with no changes in organelle sizes over time, will be measured to determine the fluctuation level in estimated size distribution due to measurement imperfections alone. Subsequent measurements on live cells will determine whether there is a higher level of fluctuation that could be attributed to dynamic changes in organelle size. Studies on unperturbed cells are precursors to ones in which the effects of exogenous agents are monitored over time.

Population size dependency of measles epidemic that was scalable from Japanese prefectures to European countries.

PubMed

Yoshikura, Hiroshi

2018-04-27

Relation between number of measles patients (y) and population size (x) was expressed by an equation y = ax s , where a is a constant and s the slope of the plot; s was 2.04-2.17 for prefectures in Japan, i.e., the number of patients was proportional to square of the prefecture population size. For European countries that joined European Union no later than 2009, the slope was 1.43-1.87. The measles' population dependency found among prefectures in Japan was thus scalable up to European countries. It was surprising because, unlike Japan, population density in EU countries was not uniform and not proportional to the population size. The population size dependency was not observed among Western Pacific and South-East Asian countries probably on account of confounding interacting socioeconomic factors. Correlation between measles incidence and birth rate, infant mortality or GDP per capita was almost insignificant.Size distribution of local infection clusters (LICs) of measles and rubella in Japan followed power law. For measles, though the population dependency remained unchanged after "elimination", there was change in the Zipf-type plot of LIC sizes. After the "elimination", LICs linked to importation-related outbreaks in less populated prefectures emerged as the top-ranked LICs.

Metabolic rates of giant pandas inform conservation strategies.

PubMed

Fei, Yuxiang; Hou, Rong; Spotila, James R; Paladino, Frank V; Qi, Dunwu; Zhang, Zhihe

2016-06-06

The giant panda is an icon of conservation and survived a large-scale bamboo die off in the 1980s in China. Captive breeding programs have produced a large population in zoos and efforts continue to reintroduce those animals into the wild. However, we lack sufficient knowledge of their physiological ecology to determine requirements for survival now and in the face of climate change. We measured resting and active metabolic rates of giant pandas in order to determine if current bamboo resources were sufficient for adding additional animals to populations in natural reserves. Resting metabolic rates were somewhat below average for a panda sized mammal and active metabolic rates were in the normal range. Pandas do not have exceptionally low metabolic rates. Nevertheless, there is enough bamboo in natural reserves to support both natural populations and large numbers of reintroduced pandas. Bamboo will not be the limiting factor in successful reintroduction.

Metabolic rates of giant pandas inform conservation strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fei, Yuxiang; Hou, Rong; Spotila, James R.; Paladino, Frank V.; Qi, Dunwu; Zhang, Zhihe

2016-06-01

The giant panda is an icon of conservation and survived a large-scale bamboo die off in the 1980s in China. Captive breeding programs have produced a large population in zoos and efforts continue to reintroduce those animals into the wild. However, we lack sufficient knowledge of their physiological ecology to determine requirements for survival now and in the face of climate change. We measured resting and active metabolic rates of giant pandas in order to determine if current bamboo resources were sufficient for adding additional animals to populations in natural reserves. Resting metabolic rates were somewhat below average for a panda sized mammal and active metabolic rates were in the normal range. Pandas do not have exceptionally low metabolic rates. Nevertheless, there is enough bamboo in natural reserves to support both natural populations and large numbers of reintroduced pandas. Bamboo will not be the limiting factor in successful reintroduction.

Metabolic rates of giant pandas inform conservation strategies

PubMed Central

Fei, Yuxiang; Hou, Rong; Spotila, James R.; Paladino, Frank V.; Qi, Dunwu; Zhang, Zhihe

2016-01-01

The giant panda is an icon of conservation and survived a large-scale bamboo die off in the 1980s in China. Captive breeding programs have produced a large population in zoos and efforts continue to reintroduce those animals into the wild. However, we lack sufficient knowledge of their physiological ecology to determine requirements for survival now and in the face of climate change. We measured resting and active metabolic rates of giant pandas in order to determine if current bamboo resources were sufficient for adding additional animals to populations in natural reserves. Resting metabolic rates were somewhat below average for a panda sized mammal and active metabolic rates were in the normal range. Pandas do not have exceptionally low metabolic rates. Nevertheless, there is enough bamboo in natural reserves to support both natural populations and large numbers of reintroduced pandas. Bamboo will not be the limiting factor in successful reintroduction. PMID:27264109

Allele frequency distribution for the variable number of tandem repeat locus D10S28 in Tamil Nadu (south India) population.

PubMed

Pandian, S K; Kumar, S; Krishnan, M; Dharmalingam, K; Damodaran, C

1995-09-01

Allele frequencies were determined in unrelated individuals of Tamil speaking population from the Madras City (Tamil Nadu, South India) area for the polymorphic DNA locus D10S28 using the probe TBQ7. Membranes hybridized with the probe YNH24 were subjected to deprobing and were subsequently hybridized with random priming - labeled, purified inserts of TBQ7. The sizes of the fragments were grouped to 100 bp as well as to arbitrary fixed bins (Federal Bureau of Investigation / Royal Canadian Mounted Police). There were 14 bins in the latter with the most common bin being 11 (1789-1924 bp) with a frequency of 9.8%. We observed a heterozygosity of 92% comparable to Caucasian populations. The data presented here can be used as the basis for utilizing this variable number of tandem repeats (TNTR) DNA marker for paternity determinations and forensic investigations.

Testing the 'island rule' for a tenebrionid beetle (Coleoptera, Tenebrionidae)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmer, Miquel

2002-05-01

Insular populations and their closest mainland counterparts commonly display body size differences that are considered to fit the island rule, a theoretical framework to explain both dwarfism and gigantism in isolated animal populations. The island rule is used to explain the pattern of change of body size at the inter-specific level. But the model implicitly makes also a prediction for the body size of isolated populations of a single species. It suggests that, for a hypothetical species covering a wide range of island sizes, there exists a specific island size where this species reaches the largest body size. Body size would be small (in relative terms) in the smallest islets of the species range. It would increase with island size, and reach a maximum at some specific island size. However, additional increases from such a specific island size would instead promote body size reduction, and small (in relative terms) body sizes would be found again on the largest islands. The biogeographical patterns predicted by the island rule have been described and analysed for vertebrates only (mainly mammals), but remain largely untested for insects or other invertebrates. I analyse here the pattern of body size variation between seven isolated insular populations of a flightless beetle, Asida planipennis (Coleoptera, Tenebrionidae). This is an endemic species of Mallorca, Menorca and a number of islands and islets in the Balearic archipelago (western Mediterranean). The study covers seven of the 15 known populations (i.e., there are only 15 islands or islets inhabited by the species). The populations studied fit the pattern advanced above and we could, therefore, extrapolate the island rule to a very different kind of organism. However, the small sample size of some of the populations invites some caution at this early stage.

A New Method for Estimating the Effective Population Size from Allele Frequency Changes

PubMed Central

Pollak, Edward

1983-01-01

A new procedure is proposed for estimating the effective population size, given that information is available on changes in frequencies of the alleles at one or more independently segregating loci and the population is observed at two or more separate times. Approximate expressions are obtained for the variances of the new statistic, as well as others, also based on allele frequency changes, that have been discussed in the literature. This analysis indicates that the new statistic will generally have a smaller variance than the others. Estimates of effective population sizes and of the standard errors of the estimates are computed for data on two fly populations that have been discussed in earlier papers. In both cases, there is evidence that the effective population size is very much smaller than the minimum census size of the population. PMID:17246147

Colonial, more widely distributed and less abundant bird species undergo wider population fluctuations independent of their population trend

PubMed Central

Møller, Anders P.

2017-01-01

Understanding temporal variability in population size is important for conservation biology because wide population fluctuations increase the risk of extinction. Previous studies suggested that certain ecological, demographic, life-history and genetic characteristics of species might be related to the degree of their population fluctuations. We checked whether that was the case in a large sample of 231 European breeding bird species while taking a number of potentially confounding factors such as population trends or similarities among species due to common descent into account. When species-specific characteristics were analysed one by one, the magnitude of population fluctuations was positively related to coloniality, habitat, total breeding range, heterogeneity of breeding distribution and natal dispersal, and negatively related to urbanisation, abundance, relative number of subspecies, parasitism and proportion of polymorphic loci. However, when abundance (population size) was included in the analyses of the other parameters, only coloniality, habitat, total breeding range and abundance remained significantly related to population fluctuations. The analysis including all these predictors simultaneously showed that population size fluctuated more in colonial, less abundant species with larger breeding ranges. Other parameters seemed to be related to population fluctuations only because of their association with abundance or coloniality. The unexpected positive relationship between population fluctuations and total breeding range did not seem to be mediated by abundance. The link between population fluctuations and coloniality suggests a previously unrecognized cost of coloniality. The negative relationship between population size and population fluctuations might be explained by at least three types of non-mutually exclusive stochastic processes: demographic, environmental and genetic stochasticity. Measurement error in population indices, which was unknown, may have contributed to the negative relationship between population size and fluctuations, but apparently only to a minor extent. The association between population size and fluctuations suggests that populations might be stabilized by increasing population size. PMID:28253345

The rDNA Internal Transcribed Spacer Region as a Taxonomic Marker for Nematodes

PubMed Central

Powers, T. O.; Todd, T. C.; Burnell, A. M.; Murray, P. C. B.; Fleming, C. C.; Szalanski, A. L.; Adams, B. A.; Harris, T. S.

1997-01-01

The ITS region from a wide taxonomic range of nematodes, including secernentean and adenophorean taxa, and free-living, entomopathogenic, and plant-parasitic species, was evaluated as a taxonomic marker. Size of the amplified product aided in the initial determination of group membership, and also suggested groups that may require taxonomic reevaluation. Congeneric species often displayed identically sized ITS regions, but genera such as Pratylenchus and Tylenchorhynchus had species with large differences in size. ITS heterogeneity in individuals and populations was identified in several nematode taxa. PCR-RFLP of ITS1 is advocated as a method of taxonomic analysis in genera such as Helicotylenchus that contain numerous species with few diagnostic morphological characteristics. PMID:19274180

Spectral Profiler Probe for In Situ Snow Grain Size and Composition Stratigraphy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berisford, Daniel F.; Molotch, Noah P.; Painter, Thomas

2012-01-01

An ultimate goal of the climate change, snow science, and hydrology communities is to measure snow water equivalent (SWE) from satellite measurements. Seasonal SWE is highly sensitive to climate change and provides fresh water for much of the world population. Snowmelt from mountainous regions represents the dominant water source for 60 million people in the United States and over one billion people globally. Determination of snow grain sizes comprising mountain snowpack is critical for predicting snow meltwater runoff, understanding physical properties and radiation balance, and providing necessary input for interpreting satellite measurements. Both microwave emission and radar backscatter from the snow are dominated by the snow grain size stratigraphy. As a result, retrieval algorithms for measuring snow water equivalents from orbiting satellites is largely hindered by inadequate knowledge of grain size.

Population estimates of Nearctic shorebirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrison, R.I.G.; Gill, Robert E.; Harrington, B.A.; Skagen, S.K.; Page, G.W.; Gratto-Trevor, C. L.; Haig, S.M.

2000-01-01

Estimates are presented for the population sizes of 53 species of Nearctic shorebirds occurring regularly in North America, plus four species that breed occasionally. Shorebird population sizes were derived from data obtained by a variety of methods from breeding, migration and wintering areas, and formal assessments of accuracy of counts or estimates are rarely available. Accurate estimates exist only for a few species that have been the subject of detailed investigation, and the likely accuracy of most estimates is considered poor or low. Population estimates range from a few tens to several millions. Overall, population estimates most commonly fell in the range of hundreds of thousands, particularly the low hundreds of thousands; estimated population sizes for large shorebird species currently all fall below 500,000. Population size was inversely related to size (mass) of the species, with a statistically significant negative regression between log (population size) and log (mass). Two outlying groups were evident on the regression graph: one, with populations lower than predicted, included species considered either to be "at risk" or particularly hard to count, and a second, with populations higher than predicted, included two species that are hunted. Population estimates are an integral part of conservation plans being developed for shorebirds in the United States and Canada, and may be used to identify areas of key international and regional importance.

Estimates of shorebird populations in North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrison, R.I.G.; Gill, Robert E.; Harrington, B.A.; Skagen, S.K.; Page, G.W.; Gratto-Trevor, C. L.; Haig, S.M.

2001-01-01

Estimates are presented for the population sizes of 53 species of Nearctic shorebirds occurring regularly in North America, plus four species that breed occasionally. Population estimates range from a few tens to several millions. Overall, population estimates most commonly fall in the range of hundreds of thousands, particularly the low hundreds of thousands; estimated population sizes for large shorebird species currently all fall below 500 000. Population size is inversely related to size (mass) of the species, with a statistically significant negative regression between log(population size) and log(mass). Two outlying groups are evident on the regression graph: one, with populations lower than predicted, includes species considered to be either “at risk” or particularly hard to count, and a second, with populations higher than predicted, includes two species that are hunted. Shorebird population sizes were derived from data obtained by a variety of methods from breeding, migration, and wintering areas, and formal assessments of accuracy of counts or estimates are rarely available. Accurate estimates exist only for a few species that have been the subject of detailed investigation, and the likely accuracy of most estimates is considered poor or low. Population estimates are an integral part of conservation plans being developed for shorebirds in the United States and Canada and may be used to identify areas of key international and regional importance.

Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

PubMed

Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

2014-11-01

Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10.5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean population size. Results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of a species over its range may be facilitated by taking the spatial structure of population size into account as well as by considering changes in population processes as a function of position within the range of the species. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Population size estimation of men who have sex with men through the network scale-up method in Japan.

PubMed

Ezoe, Satoshi; Morooka, Takeo; Noda, Tatsuya; Sabin, Miriam Lewis; Koike, Soichi

2012-01-01

Men who have sex with men (MSM) are one of the groups most at risk for HIV infection in Japan. However, size estimates of MSM populations have not been conducted with sufficient frequency and rigor because of the difficulty, high cost and stigma associated with reaching such populations. This study examined an innovative and simple method for estimating the size of the MSM population in Japan. We combined an internet survey with the network scale-up method, a social network method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations, for the first time in Japan. An internet survey was conducted among 1,500 internet users who registered with a nationwide internet-research agency. The survey participants were asked how many members of particular groups with known population sizes (firepersons, police officers, and military personnel) they knew as acquaintances. The participants were also asked to identify the number of their acquaintances whom they understood to be MSM. Using these survey results with the network scale-up method, the personal network size and MSM population size were estimated. The personal network size was estimated to be 363.5 regardless of the sex of the acquaintances and 174.0 for only male acquaintances. The estimated MSM prevalence among the total male population in Japan was 0.0402% without adjustment, and 2.87% after adjusting for the transmission error of MSM. The estimated personal network size and MSM prevalence seen in this study were comparable to those from previous survey results based on the direct-estimation method. Estimating population sizes through combining an internet survey with the network scale-up method appeared to be an effective method from the perspectives of rapidity, simplicity, and low cost as compared with more-conventional methods.

Estimation of census and effective population sizes: the increasing usefulness of DNA-based approaches

Treesearch

Gordon Luikart; Nils Ryman; David A. Tallmon; Michael K. Schwartz; Fred W. Allendorf

2010-01-01

Population census size (NC) and effective population sizes (Ne) are two crucial parameters that influence population viability, wildlife management decisions, and conservation planning. Genetic estimators of both NC and Ne are increasingly widely used because molecular markers are increasingly available, statistical methods are improving rapidly, and genetic estimators...

On the genetic parameter determining the efficiency of purging: an estimate for Drosophila egg-to-pupae viability.

PubMed

Bersabé, D; García-Dorado, A

2013-02-01

The consequences of inbreeding on fitness can be crucial in evolutionary and conservation grounds and depend upon the efficiency of purging against deleterious recessive alleles. Recently, analytical expressions have been derived to predict the evolution of mean fitness, taking into account both inbreeding and purging, which depend on an 'effective purging coefficient (d(e) )'. Here, we explore the validity of that predictive approach and assay the strength of purging by estimating d(e) for egg-to-pupae viability (EPV) after a drastic reduction in population size in a recently captured base population of Drosophila melanogaster. For this purpose, we first obtained estimates of the inbreeding depression rate (δ) for EPV in the base population, and we found that about 40% was due to segregating recessive lethals. Then, two sets of lines were founded from this base population and were maintained with different effective size throughout the rest of the experiment (N = 6; N = 12), their mean EPV being assayed at different generations. Due to purging, the reductions in mean EPV experienced by these lines were considerably smaller than the corresponding neutral predictions. For the 60% of δ attributable to nonlethal deleterious alleles, our results suggest an effective purging coefficient d(e) > 0.02. Similarly, we obtain that d(e) > 0.09 is required to roughly account for purging against the pooled inbreeding depression from lethal and nonlethal deleterious alleles. This implies that purging should be efficient for population sizes of the order of a few tens and larger, but might be inefficient against nonlethal deleterious alleles in smaller populations. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2012 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Effect of mean diameter and polydispersity of PLG microspheres on drug release: experiment and theory.

PubMed

Berchane, N S; Carson, K H; Rice-Ficht, A C; Andrews, M J

2007-06-07

The need to tailor release rate profiles from polymeric microspheres is a significant problem. Microsphere size, which has a significant effect on drug release rate, can potentially be varied to design a controlled drug delivery system with desired release profile. In this work the effects of microspheres mean diameter, polydispersity, and polymer degradation on drug release rate from poly(lactide-co-glycolide) (PLG) microspheres are described. Piroxicam containing PLG microspheres were fabricated at 20% loading, and at three different impeller speeds. A portion of the microspheres was then sieved giving five different size distributions. In vitro release kinetics were determined for each preparation. Based on these experimental results, a suitable mathematical theory has been developed that incorporates the effect of microsphere size distribution and polymer degradation on drug release. We show from in vitro release experiments that microsphere size has a significant effect on drug release rate. The initial release rate decreased with an increase in microsphere size. In addition, the release profile changed from first order to concave-upward (sigmoidal) as the microsphere size was increased. The mathematical model gave a good fit to the experimental release data. For highly polydisperse populations (polydispersity parameter b<3), incorporating the microsphere size distribution into the mathematical model gave a better fit to the experimental results than using the representative mean diameter. The validated mathematical model can be used to predict small-molecule drug release from PLG microsphere populations.

Formation and maintenance of the territorial balance in the conditions of high-rise construction in the city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kisel, Tatiana

2018-03-01

High-rise construction results in the need of planning of infrastructure facilities, taking into account the increase in loading, as high-rise construction allows to place considerably bigger number of residents in the limited territory. For this purpose it is necessary to estimate the required and actual level of providing the population with each particular type of the facilities of social infrastructure. The compliance of required and actual level of providing can be characterized as the territorial balance, while the discrepancy acts as the territorial imbalance. The article is devoted to the development of such instruments of planning of urban development, which will allow to create the qualitative urban environment, founded on the territorial balances. Namely, it is devoted to the calculation of level of providing the population with the facilities of social infrastructure, to the determination of level of the imbalance in absolute and relative units and also to the ranging of imbalances on urgency of their elimination. The size of the imbalance is of great importance for planning and realization of managerial influences from the executive authorities, operating the city development. In order to determine the urgency of realization of actions for the construction of facilities of social infrastructure it is offered to range the imbalances according to their size, having determined the deviation size from balance, which is so insignificant that it does not demand any managerial influences (it can be characterized as balance) and also the groups of the imbalances, differing in urgency of managerial influences, directed to the decrease and elimination of the revealed imbalance.

Fitting statistical distributions to sea duck count data: implications for survey design and abundance estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zipkin, Elise F.; Leirness, Jeffery B.; Kinlan, Brian P.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Silverman, Emily D.

2014-01-01

Determining appropriate statistical distributions for modeling animal count data is important for accurate estimation of abundance, distribution, and trends. In the case of sea ducks along the U.S. Atlantic coast, managers want to estimate local and regional abundance to detect and track population declines, to define areas of high and low use, and to predict the impact of future habitat change on populations. In this paper, we used a modified marked point process to model survey data that recorded flock sizes of Common eiders, Long-tailed ducks, and Black, Surf, and White-winged scoters. The data come from an experimental aerial survey, conducted by the United States Fish & Wildlife Service (USFWS) Division of Migratory Bird Management, during which east-west transects were flown along the Atlantic Coast from Maine to Florida during the winters of 2009–2011. To model the number of flocks per transect (the points), we compared the fit of four statistical distributions (zero-inflated Poisson, zero-inflated geometric, zero-inflated negative binomial and negative binomial) to data on the number of species-specific sea duck flocks that were recorded for each transect flown. To model the flock sizes (the marks), we compared the fit of flock size data for each species to seven statistical distributions: positive Poisson, positive negative binomial, positive geometric, logarithmic, discretized lognormal, zeta and Yule–Simon. Akaike’s Information Criterion and Vuong’s closeness tests indicated that the negative binomial and discretized lognormal were the best distributions for all species for the points and marks, respectively. These findings have important implications for estimating sea duck abundances as the discretized lognormal is a more skewed distribution than the Poisson and negative binomial, which are frequently used to model avian counts; the lognormal is also less heavy-tailed than the power law distributions (e.g., zeta and Yule–Simon), which are becoming increasingly popular for group size modeling. Choosing appropriate statistical distributions for modeling flock size data is fundamental to accurately estimating population summaries, determining required survey effort, and assessing and propagating uncertainty through decision-making processes.

Lunar Meteoroid Impact Observations and the Flux of Kilogram-sized Meteoroids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suggs, Robert M.; Cooke, William J.; Koehler, Heather M.; Moser, Danielle E.; Suggs, Ronnie J.; Swift, Wesley R.

2010-01-01

Lunar impact monitoring provides useful information about the flux of meteoroids in the tens of grams to kilograms size range. The large collecting area of the night side of the lunar disk, approximately 3.4x10(exp 6) sq km in our camera field-of-view, provides statistically significant counts of the meteoroids. Nearly 200 lunar impacts have been observed by our program in roughly 3.5 years. Photometric calibration of the flashes along with the luminous efficiency (determined using meteor showers1,2,3) and assumed velocities provide their sizes. The asymmetry in the flux on the evening and morning hemispheres of the Moon is compared with sporadic and shower sources to determine their most likely origin. The asymmetry between the two hemispheres seen in Figure 1 is due to the impact rate and not to observational bias. Comparison with other measurements of the large meteoroid fluxes is consistent with these measurements as shown in Figure 2. The flux of meteoroids in this size range has important implications for the near-Earth object population and for impact risk for lunar spacecraft

Founder representation and effective population size in old versus young breeds-genetic diversity of Finnish and Nordic Spitz.

PubMed

Kumpulainen, M; Anderson, H; Svevar, T; Kangasvuo, I; Donner, J; Pohjoismäki, J

2017-10-01

Finnish Spitz is 130-year-old breed and has been highly popular in Finland throughout its history. Nordic Spitz is very similar to Finnish Spitz by origin and use, but is a relatively recent breed with much smaller population size. To see how breed age and breeding history have influenced the current population, we performed comprehensive population genetic analysis using pedigree data of 28,119 Finnish and 9,009 Nordic Spitzes combined with genomewide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data from 135 Finnish and 110 Nordic Spitzes. We found that the Finnish Spitz has undergone repeated male bottlenecks resulting in dramatic loss of genetic diversity, reflected by 20 effective founders (f a ) and mean heterozygosity (Hz) of 0.313. The realized effective population size in the breed based on pedigree analysis (N¯ec) is 168, whereas the genetic effective population size (N eg ) computed the decay of linkage disequilibrium (r 2 ) is only 57 individuals. Nordic Spitz, although once been near extinction, has not been exposed to similar repeated bottlenecks than Finnish Spitz and had f a of 27 individuals. However, due to the smaller total population size, the breed has also smaller effective population size than Finnish Spitz (N¯ec = 98 and N eg  = 49). Interestingly, the r 2 data show that the effective population size has contracted dramatically since the establishment of the breed, emphasizing the role of breed standards as constrains for the breeding population. Despite the small population size, Nordic Spitz still maintains SNP heterozygosity levels similar to mixed breed dogs (mean Hz = 0.409). Our study demonstrates that although pedigree analyses cannot provide estimates of the present diversity within a breed, the effective population sizes inferred from them correlate with the genotyping results. The genetic relationships of the northern Spitz breeds and the benefits of the open breed registry are discussed. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Ecological and evolutionary influences on body size and shape in the Galápagos marine iguana (Amblyrhynchus cristatus).

PubMed

Chiari, Ylenia; Glaberman, Scott; Tarroso, Pedro; Caccone, Adalgisa; Claude, Julien

2016-07-01

Oceanic islands are often inhabited by endemic species that have undergone substantial morphological evolutionary change due to processes of multiple colonizations from various source populations, dispersal, and local adaptation. Galápagos marine iguanas are an example of an island endemic exhibiting high morphological diversity, including substantial body size variation among populations and sexes, but the causes and magnitude of this variation are not well understood. We obtained morphological measurements from marine iguanas throughout their distribution range. These data were combined with genetic and local environmental data from each population to investigate the effects of evolutionary history and environmental conditions on body size and shape variation and sexual dimorphism. Our results indicate that body size and shape are highly variable among populations. Sea surface temperature and island perimeter, but not evolutionary history as depicted by phylogeographic patterns in this species, explain variation in body size among populations. Conversely, evolutionary history, but not environmental parameters or island size, was found to influence variation in body shape among populations. Finally, in all populations except one, we found strong sexual dimorphism in body size and shape in which males are larger, with higher heads than females, while females have longer heads than males. Differences among populations suggest that plasticity and/or genetic adaptation may shape body size and shape variation in marine iguanas. This study will help target future investigations to address the contribution of plasticity versus genetic adaptation on size and shape variation in marine iguanas.

Temperature-driven regime shifts in the dynamics of size-structured populations.

PubMed

Ohlberger, Jan; Edeline, Eric; Vøllestad, Leif Asbjørn; Stenseth, Nils C; Claessen, David

2011-02-01

Global warming impacts virtually all biota and ecosystems. Many of these impacts are mediated through direct effects of temperature on individual vital rates. Yet how this translates from the individual to the population level is still poorly understood, hampering the assessment of global warming impacts on population structure and dynamics. Here, we study the effects of temperature on intraspecific competition and cannibalism and the population dynamical consequences in a size-structured fish population. We use a physiologically structured consumer-resource model in which we explicitly model the temperature dependencies of the consumer vital rates and the resource population growth rate. Our model predicts that increased temperature decreases resource density despite higher resource growth rates, reflecting stronger intraspecific competition among consumers. At a critical temperature, the consumer population dynamics destabilize and shift from a stable equilibrium to competition-driven generation cycles that are dominated by recruits. As a consequence, maximum age decreases and the proportion of younger and smaller-sized fish increases. These model predictions support the hypothesis of decreasing mean body sizes due to increased temperatures. We conclude that in size-structured fish populations, global warming may increase competition, favor smaller size classes, and induce regime shifts that destabilize population and community dynamics.

Evaluation of yellow sticky traps for monitoring the population of thrips (Thysanoptera) in a mango orchard.

PubMed

Aliakbarpour, Hamaseh; Rawi, Che Salmah Md

2011-08-01

Populations of several thrips species were estimated using yellow sticky traps in an orchard planted with mango, Mangifera indica L. during the dry and wet seasons beginning in late 2008-2009 on Penang Island, Malaysia. To determine the efficacy of using sticky traps to monitor thrips populations, we compared weekly population estimates on yellow sticky traps with thrips population sizes that were determined (using a CO(2) method) directly from mango panicles. Dispersal distance and direction of thrips movement out of the orchard also were studied using yellow sticky traps placed at three distances from the edge of the orchard in four cardinal directions facing into the orchard. The number of thrips associated with the mango panicles was found to be correlated with the number of thrips collected using the sticky trap method. The number of thrips captured by the traps decreased with increasing distance from the mango orchard in all directions. Density of thrips leaving the orchard was related to the surrounding vegetation. Our results demonstrate that sticky traps have the potential to satisfactorily estimate thrips populations in mango orchards and thus they can be effectively employed as a useful tactic for sampling thrips.

Spatial and seasonal dynamics of brook trout populations inhabiting a central Appalachian watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petty, J.T.; Lamothe, P.J.; Mazik, P.M.

2005-01-01

We quantified the watershed-scale spatial population dynamics of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis in the Second Fork, a third-order tributary of Shavers Fork in eastern West Virginia. We used visual surveys, electrofishing, and mark-recapture techniques to quantify brook trout spawning intensity, population density, size structure, and demographic rates (apparent survival and immigration) throughout the watershed. Our analyses produced the following results. Spawning by brook trout was concentrated in streams with small basin areas (i.e., segments draining less than 3 km2), relatively high alkalinity (>10 mg CaCO3/L), and high amounts of instream cover. The spatial distribution of juvenile and small-adult brook trout within the watershed was relatively stable and was significantly correlated with spawning intensity. However, no such relationship was observed for large adults, which exhibited highly variable distribution patterns related to seasonally important habitat features, including instream cover, stream depth and width, and riparian canopy cover. Brook trout survival and immigration rates varied seasonally, spatially, and among size-classes. Differential survival and immigration tended to concentrate juveniles and small adults in small, alkaline streams, whereas dispersal tended to redistribute large adults at the watershed scale. Our results suggest that spatial and temporal variations in spawning, survival, and movement interact to determine the distribution, abundance, and size structure of brook trout populations at a watershed scale. These results underscore the importance of small tributaries for the persistence of brook trout in this watershed and the need to consider watershed-scale processes when designing management plans for Appalachian brook trout populations. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2005.

Size distribution of retrovirally marked lineages matches prediction from population measurements of cell cycle behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cai, Li; Hayes, Nancy L.; Takahashi, Takao; Caviness, Verne S Jr; Nowakowski, Richard S.

2002-01-01

Mechanisms that regulate neuron production in the developing mouse neocortex were examined by using a retroviral lineage marking method to determine the sizes of the lineages remaining in the proliferating population of the ventricular zone during the period of neuron production. The distribution of clade sizes obtained experimentally in four different injection-survival paradigms (E11-E13, E11-E14, E11-E15, and E12-E15) from a total of over 500 labeled lineages was compared with that obtained from three models in which the average behavior of the proliferating population [i.e., the proportion of cells remaining in the proliferative population (P) vs. that exiting the proliferative population (Q)] was quantitatively related to lineage size distribution. In model 1, different proportions of asymmetric, symmetric terminal, and symmetric nonterminal cell divisions coexisted during the entire developmental period. In model 2, the developmental period was divided into two epochs: During the first, asymmetric and symmetric nonterminal cell divisions occurred, but, during the second, asymmetric and symmetric terminal cell divisions occurred. In model 3, the shifts in P and Q are accounted for by changes in the proportions of the two types of symmetric cell divisions without the inclusion of any asymmetric cell divisions. The results obtained from the retroviral experiments were well accounted for by model 1 but not by model 2 or 3. These findings demonstrate that: 1) asymmetric and both types of symmetric cell divisions coexist during the entire period of neurogenesis in the mouse, 2) neuron production is regulated in the proliferative population by the independent decisions of the two daughter cells to reenter S phase, and 3) neurons are produced by both asymmetric and symmetric terminal cell divisions. In addition, the findings mean that cell death and/or tangential movements of cells in the proliferative population occur at only a low rate and that there are no proliferating lineages "reserved" to make particular laminae or cell types. Copyright 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Coevolutionary dynamics in large, but finite populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Traulsen, Arne; Claussen, Jens Christian; Hauert, Christoph

2006-07-01

Coevolving and competing species or game-theoretic strategies exhibit rich and complex dynamics for which a general theoretical framework based on finite populations is still lacking. Recently, an explicit mean-field description in the form of a Fokker-Planck equation was derived for frequency-dependent selection with two strategies in finite populations based on microscopic processes [A. Traulsen, J. C. Claussen, and C. Hauert, Phys. Rev. Lett. 95, 238701 (2005)]. Here we generalize this approach in a twofold way: First, we extend the framework to an arbitrary number of strategies and second, we allow for mutations in the evolutionary process. The deterministic limit of infinite population size of the frequency-dependent Moran process yields the adjusted replicator-mutator equation, which describes the combined effect of selection and mutation. For finite populations, we provide an extension taking random drift into account. In the limit of neutral selection, i.e., whenever the process is determined by random drift and mutations, the stationary strategy distribution is derived. This distribution forms the background for the coevolutionary process. In particular, a critical mutation rate uc is obtained separating two scenarios: above uc the population predominantly consists of a mixture of strategies whereas below uc the population tends to be in homogeneous states. For one of the fundamental problems in evolutionary biology, the evolution of cooperation under Darwinian selection, we demonstrate that the analytical framework provides excellent approximations to individual based simulations even for rather small population sizes. This approach complements simulation results and provides a deeper, systematic understanding of coevolutionary dynamics.

Application of Response Surface Methods To Determine Conditions for Optimal Genomic Prediction

PubMed Central

Howard, Réka; Carriquiry, Alicia L.; Beavis, William D.

2017-01-01

An epistatic genetic architecture can have a significant impact on prediction accuracies of genomic prediction (GP) methods. Machine learning methods predict traits comprised of epistatic genetic architectures more accurately than statistical methods based on additive mixed linear models. The differences between these types of GP methods suggest a diagnostic for revealing genetic architectures underlying traits of interest. In addition to genetic architecture, the performance of GP methods may be influenced by the sample size of the training population, the number of QTL, and the proportion of phenotypic variability due to genotypic variability (heritability). Possible values for these factors and the number of combinations of the factor levels that influence the performance of GP methods can be large. Thus, efficient methods for identifying combinations of factor levels that produce most accurate GPs is needed. Herein, we employ response surface methods (RSMs) to find the experimental conditions that produce the most accurate GPs. We illustrate RSM with an example of simulated doubled haploid populations and identify the combination of factors that maximize the difference between prediction accuracies of best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) and support vector machine (SVM) GP methods. The greatest impact on the response is due to the genetic architecture of the population, heritability of the trait, and the sample size. When epistasis is responsible for all of the genotypic variance and heritability is equal to one and the sample size of the training population is large, the advantage of using the SVM method vs. the BLUP method is greatest. However, except for values close to the maximum, most of the response surface shows little difference between the methods. We also determined that the conditions resulting in the greatest prediction accuracy for BLUP occurred when genetic architecture consists solely of additive effects, and heritability is equal to one. PMID:28720710

Left atrial size quantification using non-contrast-enhanced cardiac computed tomography - association with cardiovascular risk factors and gender-specific distribution in the general population: the Heinz Nixdorf Recall study.

PubMed

Mahabadi, Amir A; Lehmann, Nils; Sonneck, Nina C; Kälsch, Hagen; Bauer, Marcus; Kara, Kaffer; Geisel, Marie H; Moebus, Susanne; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Erbel, Raimund; Möhlenkamp, Stefan

2014-10-01

Left atrial (LA) size is associated with cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. Once cardiac computed tomography (CT) is performed, information on LA size is readily available without additional contrast media or radiation exposure. To determine the association of CT-derived LA area and body surface area-adjusted (BSA) LA index with cardiovascular risk factors and describe age- and gender-specific normative values in a general population cohort. This study included 3945 participants (mean age, 59 ± 8 years; 53% women) from the community-based Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study. LA area in an axial image at the level of the mitral valve was quantified from non-contrast-enhanced electron-beam CT by manual delineations of the boundaries of the LA with exclusion of subjects with prevalent cardiovascular disease. Definition of normative values was performed in subjects without predictors of LA enlargement. LA quantification was feasible in all subjects. Men had larger LA size (1856 mm(2) vs. 1677 mm(2), P < 0.0001), while after adjustment for BSA, this effect was inverted (910 mm(2)/m(2) vs. 933 mm(2)/m(2) for men and women, P < 0.0001). Determinants of body size were major predictors of LA size (body mass index [BMI]: R(2) = 0.195, BSA: R(2 )= 0.216, both P < 0.0001). Blood pressure was associated with LA size (parameter-estimate [95% confidence interval] = 51.0 (4.9-57.1) mm(2)/10 mmHg for systolic, 31.4 (25.4-37.4) mm(2)/5 mmHg for diastolic blood pressure, 214.6 (186.9-242.3) mm(2) for antihypertensive medication, P < 0.0001 for all). Cholesterol levels, lipid-lowering therapy, and diabetes were associated with LA in univariable analysis, however, correlations were low (r(2 )≤ 0.026). Current smoking was associated with reduced LA size (-115.9 [-149.0 - -82.8] mm(2), P < 0.0001). In multivariable regression, BMI, blood pressure, antihypertensive medication, and smoking remained associated with LA size (P < 0.005). Non-contrast-enhanced cardiac CT enables LA quantification with body size, hypertension, and smoking status being predictors of LA size. © The Foundation Acta Radiologica 2013 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Size and age structure of anadromous and landlocked populations of Rainbow Smelt

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Malley, Andrew; Enterline, Claire; Zydlewski, Joseph D.

2017-01-01

Rainbow Smelt Osmerus mordax are widely distributed in both anadromous and landlocked populations throughout northeastern North America; abundance, size at age, and maximum size vary widely among populations and life histories. In the present study, size at age, von Bertalanffy growth parameters, population age distributions, and precision and bias in age assessment based on scales and sectioned otoliths were compared between ecotypes and among populations of Rainbow Smelt. To compare the ecotypes, we collected spawning adults from four anadromous and three landlocked populations in Maine during spring 2014. A significant bias was identified in only one of four scale comparisons but in four of seven otolith comparisons; however, a comparable level of precision was indicated. Anadromous populations had larger and more variable size at age and von Bertalanffy growth parameters than landlocked fish. Populations were composed of ages 1–4; six populations were dominated by age-2 or age-3 individuals, and one population was dominated by age-1 fish. These data suggest the presence of considerable plasticity among populations. A latitudinal gradient was observed in the anadromous Rainbow Smelt, which may show signs of population stress at the southern extent of their distribution.

On the number of New World founders: a population genetic portrait of the peopling of the Americas.

PubMed

Hey, Jody

2005-06-01

The founding of New World populations by Asian peoples is the focus of considerable archaeological and genetic research, and there persist important questions on when and how these events occurred. Genetic data offer great potential for the study of human population history, but there are significant challenges in discerning distinct demographic processes. A new method for the study of diverging populations was applied to questions on the founding and history of Amerind-speaking Native American populations. The model permits estimation of founding population sizes, changes in population size, time of population formation, and gene flow. Analyses of data from nine loci are consistent with the general portrait that has emerged from archaeological and other kinds of evidence. The estimated effective size of the founding population for the New World is fewer than 80 individuals, approximately 1% of the effective size of the estimated ancestral Asian population. By adding a splitting parameter to population divergence models it becomes possible to develop detailed portraits of human demographic history. Analyses of Asian and New World data support a model of a recent founding of the New World by a population of quite small effective size.

Efficiency gain of marker-assisted backcrossing by sequentially increasing marker densities over generations.

PubMed

Prigge, Vanessa; Melchinger, Albrecht E; Dhillon, Baldev S; Frisch, Matthias

2009-06-01

Expenses for marker assays are the major costs in marker-assisted backcrossing programs for the transfer of target genes from a donor into the genetic background of a recipient genotype. Our objectives were to (1) investigate the effect of employing sequentially increasing marker densities over backcross generations on the recurrent parent genome (RPG) recovery and the number of marker data points (MDP) required, and (2) determine optimum designs for attaining RPG thresholds of 93-98% with a minimum number of MDP. We simulated the introgression of one dominant target gene for genome models of sugar beet (Beta vulgaris L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) with varying marker distances of 5-80 cM and population sizes of 30-250 plants across BC(1) to BC(3) generations. Employing less dense maps in early backcross generations resulted in savings of over 50% in the number of required MDP compared with using a constant set of markers and was accompanied only by small reductions in the attained RPG values. The optimum designs were characterized by increasing marker densities and increasing population sizes in advanced generations for both genome models. We conclude that increasing simultaneously the marker density and the population size from early to advanced backcross generations results in gene introgression with a minimum number of required MDP.

Yellow-bellied marmots: insights from an emergent view of sociality.

PubMed

Blumstein, Daniel T

2013-05-19

Ecological factors explain variation in sociality both within and between species of marmots-large alpine ground squirrels. Fifty years of study, by me and my colleagues, of the yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris) at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, near Crested Butte, CO, USA, has created opportunities to see how sociality changes with population and group size. Over the past decades, we have witnessed a natural experiment whereby the population tripled in size. If we view sociality as an emergent process, then demography acts as a constraint on interactions between individuals, and the threefold increase in population size should have consequences for group structure. We have used social network statistics to study the causes and consequences of social interactions by capitalizing on this demographic variation. Such an emergent view is ideally studied in an integrative Tinbergian way that focuses on both mechanism and function. We have determined that some social attributes are heritable, that social cohesion is established through age and kin structure, that well-embedded females (but not males) are less likely to disperse, and that there are fitness consequences of social attributes. Together, this integrative relationship-centred view expands on the traditional ecological model of sociality and offers a framework that can be applied to other systems.

Yellow-bellied marmots: insights from an emergent view of sociality

PubMed Central

Blumstein, Daniel T.

2013-01-01

Ecological factors explain variation in sociality both within and between species of marmots—large alpine ground squirrels. Fifty years of study, by me and my colleagues, of the yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris) at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, near Crested Butte, CO, USA, has created opportunities to see how sociality changes with population and group size. Over the past decades, we have witnessed a natural experiment whereby the population tripled in size. If we view sociality as an emergent process, then demography acts as a constraint on interactions between individuals, and the threefold increase in population size should have consequences for group structure. We have used social network statistics to study the causes and consequences of social interactions by capitalizing on this demographic variation. Such an emergent view is ideally studied in an integrative Tinbergian way that focuses on both mechanism and function. We have determined that some social attributes are heritable, that social cohesion is established through age and kin structure, that well-embedded females (but not males) are less likely to disperse, and that there are fitness consequences of social attributes. Together, this integrative relationship-centred view expands on the traditional ecological model of sociality and offers a framework that can be applied to other systems. PMID:23569297

Leptokurtic pollen-flow, non-leptokurtic gene-flow in a wind-pollinated herb, Plantago lanceolata L.

PubMed

Tonsor, Stephen J

1985-10-01

The purpose of this study was to simultaneously measure pollen dispersal distance and actual pollen-mediated gene-flow distance in a wind-pollinated herb, Plantago lanceolata. The pollen dispersal distribution, measured as pollen deposition in a wind tunnel, is leptokurtic, as expected from previous studies of wind-pollinated plants. Gene-flow, measured as seeds produced on rows of male-sterile inflorescences in the wind tunnel, is non-leptokurtic, peaking at an intermediate distance. The difference between the two distributions results from the tendency of the pollen grains to cluster. These pollen clusters are the units of gene dispersal, with clusters of intermediate and large size contributing disproportionately to gene-flow. Since many wind-pollinated species show pollen clustering (see text), the common assumption for wind-pollinated plants that gene-flow is leptokurtic requires re-examination. Gene-flow was also measured in an artifical outdoor population of male-steriles, containing a single pollen source plant in the center of the array. The gene flow distribution is significantly platykurtic, and has the same general properties outdoors, where wind speed and turbulence are uncontrolled, as it does in the wind tunnel. I estimated genetic neighborhood size based on my measure of gene-flow in the outdoor population. The estimate shows that populations of Plantago lanceolata will vary in effective number from a few tens of plants to more than five hundred plants, depending on the density of the population in question. Thus, the measured pollen-mediated gene-flow distribution and population density will interact to produce effective population sizes ranging from those in which there is no random genetic drift to those in which random genetic drift plays an important role in determining gene frequencies within and among populations. Despite the platykurtosis in the distribution, pollen-mediated gene dispersal distances are still quite limited, and considerable within and among-population genetic differentiation is to be expected in this species.

Importance of demographic surveys and public lands for the conservation of eastern hellbenders Cryptobranchus alleganiensis alleganiensis in southeast USA

PubMed Central

DePerno, Christopher S.

2017-01-01

Comparisons of recent and historic population demographic studies of eastern hellbenders Cryptobranchus alleganiensis alleganiensis have identified significant population declines and extirpations associated with habitat degradation, poor water quality and disease, leading to nomination as a candidate for listing under the Endangered Species Act. However, populations in the southern Appalachian region of the range have received less attention despite relatively high levels of watershed protection due to the establishment of federally protected National Forest and National Park public lands. These watersheds likely represent some of the best remaining available habitat, yet the lack of published studies make assessment of population stability and viability very difficult. Our objectives were to (1) conduct a capture-mark-recapture (CMR) demographic study and a point transect survey on the Hiwassee River in Tennessee which is designated a National Scenic River, and is largely contained within the Cherokee National Forest, (2) quantify the size structure of the population, (3) compare abundance, survival and recruitment with historic and contemporary hellbender populations across the range, (4) assess the importance of this population and the significance of National Forest and National Park lands in the context of hellbender population conservation in the southeastern United States. We detected all age classes present, with larval hellbenders comprising 21.5% of captures. Using a combination of static life table and CMR methods, we determined that survival rates during the first year were low (~10%), but were high (68–94%) for taggable sized hellbenders. Density of hellbenders at the study site was very high (84 taggable sized hellbenders per 100m of river) compared to recent demographic studies conducted in other regions of the range. We detected hellbenders over ~28 km of river, with a mean density of 23 taggable sized hellbenders per 100m of river, and a total population estimate of 6440 taggable hellbenders. National Forest and National Park lands are likely to continue to play a particularly important role in providing suitable habitat for hellbenders in the southern Appalachians. In fact, only six of 21 known hellbender locations in Tennessee appear to show consistent larval recruitment, all of which are located within or adjacent to National Forest or National Park land. PMID:28594881