Computer Models of Underwater Acoustic Propagation.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-01-02

deterministic propagation loss result. Development of a model for the more general problem is required, as evidenced by the trends in future sonar designs ...air. The water column itself is treated as an ideal fluid incapable of supporting showr stresses and having a uniform or, at most, piecewise constant...evaluated at any depth (zs 4 z -zN). The layer in which the source is located will be designated by LS and the receiver layer by LR. The depth dependent

Polarization changes in light beams trespassing anisotropic turbulence.

PubMed

Korotkova, Olga

2015-07-01

The polarization properties of deterministic or random light with isotropic source correlations propagating in anisotropic turbulence along horizontal paths are considered for the first time and predicted to change on the basis of the second-order coherence theory of beam-like fields and the extended Huygens-Fresnel integral. Our examples illustrate that the beams whose degree of polarization is unaffected by free-space propagation or isotropic turbulence can either decrease or increase on traversing the anisotropic turbulence, depending on the polarization state of the source.

Monte Carlo modeling of spatial coherence: free-space diffraction

PubMed Central

Fischer, David G.; Prahl, Scott A.; Duncan, Donald D.

2008-01-01

We present a Monte Carlo method for propagating partially coherent fields through complex deterministic optical systems. A Gaussian copula is used to synthesize a random source with an arbitrary spatial coherence function. Physical optics and Monte Carlo predictions of the first- and second-order statistics of the field are shown for coherent and partially coherent sources for free-space propagation, imaging using a binary Fresnel zone plate, and propagation through a limiting aperture. Excellent agreement between the physical optics and Monte Carlo predictions is demonstrated in all cases. Convergence criteria are presented for judging the quality of the Monte Carlo predictions. PMID:18830335

Digital nonlinearity compensation in high-capacity optical communication systems considering signal spectral broadening effect.

PubMed

Xu, Tianhua; Karanov, Boris; Shevchenko, Nikita A; Lavery, Domaniç; Liga, Gabriele; Killey, Robert I; Bayvel, Polina

2017-10-11

Nyquist-spaced transmission and digital signal processing have proved effective in maximising the spectral efficiency and reach of optical communication systems. In these systems, Kerr nonlinearity determines the performance limits, and leads to spectral broadening of the signals propagating in the fibre. Although digital nonlinearity compensation was validated to be promising for mitigating Kerr nonlinearities, the impact of spectral broadening on nonlinearity compensation has never been quantified. In this paper, the performance of multi-channel digital back-propagation (MC-DBP) for compensating fibre nonlinearities in Nyquist-spaced optical communication systems is investigated, when the effect of signal spectral broadening is considered. It is found that accounting for the spectral broadening effect is crucial for achieving the best performance of DBP in both single-channel and multi-channel communication systems, independent of modulation formats used. For multi-channel systems, the degradation of DBP performance due to neglecting the spectral broadening effect in the compensation is more significant for outer channels. Our work also quantified the minimum bandwidths of optical receivers and signal processing devices to ensure the optimal compensation of deterministic nonlinear distortions.

Analysis of tonal noise generating mechanisms in low-speed axial-flow fans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canepa, Edward; Cattanei, Andrea; Zecchin, Fabio Mazzocut

2016-08-01

The present paper reports a comparison of experimental SPL spectral data related to the tonal noise generated by axial-flow fans. A nine blade rotor has been operated at free discharge conditions and in four geometrical configurations in which different kinds of tonal noise generating mechanisms are present: large-scale inlet turbulent structures, tip-gap flow, turbulent wakes, and rotor-stator interaction. The measurements have been taken in a hemi-anechoic chamber at constant rotational speed and, in order to vary the acoustic source strength, during low angular acceleration, linear speed ramps. In order to avoid erroneous quantitative evaluations if the acoustic propagation effects are not considered, the acoustic response functions of the different test configurations have been computed by means of the spectral decomposition method. Then, the properties of the tonal noise generating mechanisms have been studied. To this aim, the constant-Strouhal number SPL, obtained by means of measurements taken during the speed ramps, have been compared with the propagation function. Finally, the analysis of the phase of the acoustic pressure has allowed to distinguish between random and deterministic tonal noise generating mechanisms and to collect information about the presence of important propagation effects.

`spup' - An R Package for Analysis of Spatial Uncertainty Propagation and Application to Trace Gas Emission Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawicka, K.; Breuer, L.; Houska, T.; Santabarbara Ruiz, I.; Heuvelink, G. B. M.

2016-12-01

Computer models have become a crucial tool in engineering and environmental sciences for simulating the behaviour of complex static and dynamic systems. However, while many models are deterministic, the uncertainty in their predictions needs to be estimated before they are used for decision support. Advances in uncertainty propagation analysis and assessment have been paralleled by a growing number of software tools for uncertainty analysis, but none has gained recognition for a universal applicability, including case studies with spatial models and spatial model inputs. Due to the growing popularity and applicability of the open source R programming language we undertook a project to develop an R package that facilitates uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling. In particular, the `spup' package provides functions for examining the uncertainty propagation starting from input data and model parameters, via the environmental model onto model predictions. The functions include uncertainty model specification, stochastic simulation and propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo techniques, as well as several uncertainty visualization functions. Here we will demonstrate that the 'spup' package is an effective and easy-to-use tool to be applied even in a very complex study case, and that it can be used in multi-disciplinary research and model-based decision support. As an example, we use the ecological LandscapeDNDC model to analyse propagation of uncertainties associated with spatial variability of the model driving forces such as rainfall, nitrogen deposition and fertilizer inputs. The uncertainty propagation is analysed for the prediction of emissions of N2O and CO2 for a German low mountainous, agriculturally developed catchment. The study tests the effect of spatial correlations on spatially aggregated model outputs, and could serve as an advice for developing best management practices and model improvement strategies.

Simulation the Effect of Internal Wave on the Acoustic Propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ko, D. S.

2005-05-01

An acoustic radiation transport model with the Monte Carlo solution has been developed and applied to study the effect of internal wave induced random oceanic fluctuations on the deep ocean acoustic propagation. Refraction in the ocean sound channel is performed by means of bi-cubic spline interpolation of discrete deterministic ray paths in the angle(energy)-range-depth coordinates. Scattering by random internal wave fluctuations is accomplished by sampling a power law scattering kernel applying the rejection method. Results from numerical experiments show that the mean positions of acoustic rays are significantly displaced tending toward the sound channel axis due to the asymmetry of the scattering kernel. The spreading of ray depths and angles about the means depends strongly on frequency. The envelope of the ray displacement spreading is found to be proportional to the square root of range which is different from "3/2 law" found in the non-channel case. Suppression of the spreading is due to the anisotropy of fluctuations and especially due to the presence of sound channel itself.

Multiple scattering of waves in random media: Application to the study of the city-site effect in Mexico City area.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishizawa, O. A.; Clouteau, D.

2007-12-01

Long-duration, amplifications and spatial response's variability of the seismic records registered in Mexico City during the September 1985 earthquake cannot only be explained by the soil velocity model. We will try to explain these phenomena by studying the extent of the effect of buildings' diffracted wave fields during an earthquake. The main question is whether the presence of a large number of buildings can significantly modify the seismic wave field. We are interested in the interaction between the incident wave field propagating in a stratified half- space and a large number of structures at the free surface, i.e., the coupled city-site effect. We study and characterize the seismic wave propagation regimes in a city using the theory of wave propagation in random media. In the coupled city-site system, the buildings are modeled as resonant scatterers uniformly distributed at the surface of a deterministic, horizontally layered elastic half-space representing the soil. Based on the mean-field and the field correlation equations, we build a theoretical model which takes into account the multiple scattering of seismic waves and allows us to describe the coupled city-site system behavior in a simple and rapid way. The results obtained for the configurationally averaged field quantities are validated by means of 3D results for the seismic response of a deterministic model. The numerical simulations of this model are computed with MISS3D code based on classical Soil-Structure Interaction techniques and on a variational coupling between Boundary Integral Equations for a layered soil and a modal Finite Element approach for the buildings. This work proposes a detailed numerical and a theoretical analysis of the city-site interaction (CSI) in Mexico City area. The principal parameters in the study of the CSI are the buildings resonant frequency distribution, the soil characteristics of the site, the urban density and position of the buildings in the city, as well as the type of incident wave. The main results of the theoretical and numerical models allow us to characterize the seismic movement in urban areas.

Experiments on Learning by Back Propagation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Plaut, David C.; And Others

This paper describes further research on a learning procedure for layered networks of deterministic, neuron-like units, described by Rumelhart et al. The units, the way they are connected, the learning procedure, and the extension to iterative networks are presented. In one experiment, a network learns a set of filters, enabling it to discriminate…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jadidian, Jouya; Zahn, Markus; Lavesson, Nils

Streamer branching in liquid dielectrics is driven by stochastic and deterministic factors. The presence of stochastic causes of streamer branching such as inhomogeneities inherited from noisy initial states, impurities, or charge carrier density fluctuations is inevitable in any dielectric. A fully three-dimensional streamer model presented in this paper indicates that deterministic origins of branching are intrinsic attributes of streamers, which in some cases make the branching inevitable depending on shape and velocity of the volume charge at the streamer frontier. Specifically, any given inhomogeneous perturbation can result in streamer branching if the volume charge layer at the original streamer headmore » is relatively thin and slow enough. Furthermore, discrete nature of electrons at the leading edge of an ionization front always guarantees the existence of a non-zero inhomogeneous perturbation ahead of the streamer head propagating even in perfectly homogeneous dielectric. Based on the modeling results for streamers propagating in a liquid dielectric, a gauge on the streamer head geometry is introduced that determines whether the branching occurs under particular inhomogeneous circumstances. Estimated number, diameter, and velocity of the born branches agree qualitatively with experimental images of the streamer branching.« less

Magnetometer-only attitude and rate determination for a gyro-less spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Natanson, G. A.; Challa, M. S.; Deutschmann, J.; Baker, D. F.

1994-01-01

Attitude determination algorithms that requires only the earth's magnetic field will be useful for contingency conditions. One way to determine attitude is to use the time derivative of the magnetic field as the second vector in the attitude determination process. When no gyros are available, however, attitude determination becomes difficult because the rates must be propagated via integration of Euler's equation, which in turn requires knowledge of the initial rates. The spacecraft state to be determined must then include not only the attitude but also rates. This paper describes a magnetometer-only attitude determination scheme with no a priori knowledge of the spacecraft state, which uses a deterministic algorithm to initialize an extended Kalman filter. The deterministic algorithm uses Euler's equation to relate the time derivatives of the magnetic field in the reference and body frames and solves the resultant transcendental equations for the coarse attitude and rates. An important feature of the filter is that its state vector also includes corrections to the propagated rates, thus enabling it to generate highly accurate solutions. The method was tested using in-flight data from the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particles Explorer (SAMPEX), a Small Explorer spacecraft. SAMPEX data using several eclipse periods were used to simulate conditions that may exist during the failure of the on-board digital sun sensor. The combined algorithm has been found effective, yielding accuracies of 1.5 deg in attitude (within even nominal mission requirements) and 0.01 degree per second (deg/sec) in the rates.

Probabilistic versus deterministic hazard assessment in liquefaction susceptible zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daminelli, Rosastella; Gerosa, Daniele; Marcellini, Alberto; Tento, Alberto

2015-04-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), usually adopted in the framework of seismic codes redaction, is based on Poissonian description of the temporal occurrence, negative exponential distribution of magnitude and attenuation relationship with log-normal distribution of PGA or response spectrum. The main positive aspect of this approach stems into the fact that is presently a standard for the majority of countries, but there are weak points in particular regarding the physical description of the earthquake phenomenon. Factors like site effects, source characteristics like duration of the strong motion and directivity that could significantly influence the expected motion at the site are not taken into account by PSHA. Deterministic models can better evaluate the ground motion at a site from a physical point of view, but its prediction reliability depends on the degree of knowledge of the source, wave propagation and soil parameters. We compare these two approaches in selected sites affected by the May 2012 Emilia-Romagna and Lombardia earthquake, that caused widespread liquefaction phenomena unusually for magnitude less than 6. We focus on sites liquefiable because of their soil mechanical parameters and water table level. Our analysis shows that the choice between deterministic and probabilistic hazard analysis is strongly dependent on site conditions. The looser the soil and the higher the liquefaction potential, the more suitable is the deterministic approach. Source characteristics, in particular the duration of strong ground motion, have long since recognized as relevant to induce liquefaction; unfortunately a quantitative prediction of these parameters appears very unlikely, dramatically reducing the possibility of their adoption in hazard assessment. Last but not least, the economic factors are relevant in the choice of the approach. The case history of 2012 Emilia-Romagna and Lombardia earthquake, with an officially estimated cost of 6 billions Euros, shows that geological and geophysical investigations necessary to assess a reliable deterministic hazard evaluation are largely justified.

A white-box model of S-shaped and double S-shaped single-species population growth

PubMed Central

Kalmykov, Lev V.

2015-01-01

Complex systems may be mechanistically modelled by white-box modeling with using logical deterministic individual-based cellular automata. Mathematical models of complex systems are of three types: black-box (phenomenological), white-box (mechanistic, based on the first principles) and grey-box (mixtures of phenomenological and mechanistic models). Most basic ecological models are of black-box type, including Malthusian, Verhulst, Lotka–Volterra models. In black-box models, the individual-based (mechanistic) mechanisms of population dynamics remain hidden. Here we mechanistically model the S-shaped and double S-shaped population growth of vegetatively propagated rhizomatous lawn grasses. Using purely logical deterministic individual-based cellular automata we create a white-box model. From a general physical standpoint, the vegetative propagation of plants is an analogue of excitation propagation in excitable media. Using the Monte Carlo method, we investigate a role of different initial positioning of an individual in the habitat. We have investigated mechanisms of the single-species population growth limited by habitat size, intraspecific competition, regeneration time and fecundity of individuals in two types of boundary conditions and at two types of fecundity. Besides that, we have compared the S-shaped and J-shaped population growth. We consider this white-box modeling approach as a method of artificial intelligence which works as automatic hyper-logical inference from the first principles of the studied subject. This approach is perspective for direct mechanistic insights into nature of any complex systems. PMID:26038717

A surface wave reflector in Southwestern Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mak, S.; Koketsu, K.; Miyake, H.; Obara, K.; Sekine, S.

2009-12-01

Surface waves at short periods (<35s) are affected severely by heterogeneities in the crust and the uppermost mantle. When the scale of heterogeneity is sufficiently large, its effect can be studied in a deterministic way using conventional concepts of reflection and refraction. A well-known example is surface wave refraction at continental margin. We present a case study to investigate the composition of surface wave coda in a deterministic approach. A long duration of surface wave coda with a predominant period of 20s is observed during various strong earthquakes around Japan. The coda shows an unambiguous propagation direction, implying a deterministic nature. Beamforming and particle motion analysis suggest that the surface wave later arrivals could be explained by Love wave reflections by a point reflector located at offshore southeast to Kyushu. The reflection demonstrates a seemingly incidence-independent favorable azimuth in emitting strength. In additional to beamforming, we use a new regional crustal velocity model to perform a grid-search ray-tracing with the assumption of point reflector to further constrain to location of coda generation. Because strong velocity anomalies exist near the zone of interest, we decide to use a network shortest-path ray-tracing method, instead of analytical methods like shooting and bending, to avoid the problems like convergence, shadow zone, and smooth model assumption. Two geological features are found to be related to the formation of the coda. The primary one is the intersection between the Kyushu-Palau Ridge and the Nankai Trough at offshore southeast to Kyushu (hereafter referred as "KPR-NT"), which may act as a point reflector. There is a strong Love wave phase velocity anomaly at KPR-NT but not other parts of the ridge, implying that topography is irrelevant. Rayleigh wave phase velocity does not experience a strong anomaly there, which is consistent to the absence of Rayleigh wave reflections implied by the observed particle motions. The secondary one is a low phase velocity (<2km/s for T=20s) at the accretionary wedge of the Nankai Trough due to the thick sediment. Such a long and narrow low velocity zone, with its southwest tip at KPR-NT, is a potential wave-guide to channel waves towards KPR-NT. The longer duration of deterministic later arrivals than the direct arrival is partially explained by multi-pathing due to the wave-guide. The surface wave coda is observable for earthquakes whose propagation path does not include the accretionary wedge, implying that the wedge is an enhancer but not indispensable of the formation of the observed coda.

Autonomous quantum to classical transitions and the generalized imaging theorem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briggs, John S.; Feagin, James M.

2016-03-01

The mechanism of the transition of a dynamical system from quantum to classical mechanics is of continuing interest. Practically it is of importance for the interpretation of multi-particle coincidence measurements performed at macroscopic distances from a microscopic reaction zone. Here we prove the generalized imaging theorem which shows that the spatial wave function of any multi-particle quantum system, propagating over distances and times large on an atomic scale but still microscopic, and subject to deterministic external fields and particle interactions, becomes proportional to the initial momentum wave function where the position and momentum coordinates define a classical trajectory. Currently, the quantum to classical transition is considered to occur via decoherence caused by stochastic interaction with an environment. The imaging theorem arises from unitary Schrödinger propagation and so is valid without any environmental interaction. It implies that a simultaneous measurement of both position and momentum will define a unique classical trajectory, whereas a less complete measurement of say position alone can lead to quantum interference effects.

Autonomous quantum to classical transitions and the generalized imaging theorem

DOE PAGES

Briggs, John S.; Feagin, James M.

2016-03-16

The mechanism of the transition of a dynamical system from quantum to classical mechanics is of continuing interest. Practically it is of importance for the interpretation of multi-particle coincidence measurements performed at macroscopic distances from a microscopic reaction zone. We prove the generalized imaging theorem which shows that the spatial wave function of any multi-particle quantum system, propagating over distances and times large on an atomic scale but still microscopic, and subject to deterministic external fields and particle interactions, becomes proportional to the initial momentum wave function where the position and momentum coordinates define a classical trajectory. Now, the quantummore » to classical transition is considered to occur via decoherence caused by stochastic interaction with an environment. The imaging theorem arises from unitary Schrödinger propagation and so is valid without any environmental interaction. It implies that a simultaneous measurement of both position and momentum will define a unique classical trajectory, whereas a less complete measurement of say position alone can lead to quantum interference effects.« less

Statistically qualified neuro-analytic failure detection method and system

DOEpatents

Vilim, Richard B.; Garcia, Humberto E.; Chen, Frederick W.

2002-03-02

An apparatus and method for monitoring a process involve development and application of a statistically qualified neuro-analytic (SQNA) model to accurately and reliably identify process change. The development of the SQNA model is accomplished in two stages: deterministic model adaption and stochastic model modification of the deterministic model adaptation. Deterministic model adaption involves formulating an analytic model of the process representing known process characteristics, augmenting the analytic model with a neural network that captures unknown process characteristics, and training the resulting neuro-analytic model by adjusting the neural network weights according to a unique scaled equation error minimization technique. Stochastic model modification involves qualifying any remaining uncertainty in the trained neuro-analytic model by formulating a likelihood function, given an error propagation equation, for computing the probability that the neuro-analytic model generates measured process output. Preferably, the developed SQNA model is validated using known sequential probability ratio tests and applied to the process as an on-line monitoring system. Illustrative of the method and apparatus, the method is applied to a peristaltic pump system.

The Shock and Vibration Digest. Volume 15, Number 8

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-08-01

a number of cracks have occurred in rotor shafts of turbogenerator sys - tems. Methods for detecting such cracks have thus become important, and...Bearing-Foundation Sys - tems Caused by Electrical System Faults," IFTOMM, p 177. 95. Ming, H., Sgroi, V., and Malanoski, S.B., "Fan/ Foundation...vibra- tion fundamentals, deterministic and random signals, convolution integrals, wave motion, continuous sys - tems, sound propagation outdoors

A deterministic model for the sublayer streaks in turbulent boundary layers for application to flow control.

PubMed

Carpenter, Peter W; Kudar, Karen L; Ali, Reza; Sen, Pradeep K; Davies, Christopher

2007-10-15

We present a relatively simple, deterministic, theoretical model for the sublayer streaks in a turbulent boundary layer based on an analogy with Klebanoff modes. Our approach is to generate the streamwise vortices found in the buffer layer by means of a vorticity source in the form of a fictitious body force. It is found that the strongest streaks correspond to a spanwise wavelength that lies within the range of the experimentally observed values for the statistical mean streak spacing. We also present results showing the effect of streamwise pressure gradient, Reynolds number and wall compliance on the sublayer streaks. The theoretical predictions for the effects of wall compliance on the streak characteristics agree well with experimental data. Our proposed theoretical model for the quasi-periodic bursting cycle is also described, which places the streak modelling in context. The proposed bursting process is as follows: (i) streamwise vortices generate sublayer streaks and other vortical elements generate propagating plane waves, (ii) when the streaks reach a sufficient amplitude, they interact nonlinearly with the plane waves to produce oblique waves that exhibit transient growth, and (iii) the oblique waves interact nonlinearly with the plane wave to generate streamwise vortices; these in turn generate the sublayer streaks and so the cycle is renewed.

Neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios for India—a preventive tool for disaster mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parvez, Imtiyaz A.; Magrin, Andrea; Vaccari, Franco; Ashish; Mir, Ramees R.; Peresan, Antonella; Panza, Giuliano Francesco

2017-11-01

Current computational resources and physical knowledge of the seismic wave generation and propagation processes allow for reliable numerical and analytical models of waveform generation and propagation. From the simulation of ground motion, it is easy to extract the desired earthquake hazard parameters. Accordingly, a scenario-based approach to seismic hazard assessment has been developed, namely the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment (NDSHA), which allows for a wide range of possible seismic sources to be used in the definition of reliable scenarios by means of realistic waveforms modelling. Such reliable and comprehensive characterization of expected earthquake ground motion is essential to improve building codes, particularly for the protection of critical infrastructures and for land use planning. Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489-508, 2003) published the first ever neo-deterministic seismic hazard map of India by computing synthetic seismograms with input data set consisting of structural models, seismogenic zones, focal mechanisms and earthquake catalogues. As described in Panza et al. (Adv Geophys 53:93-165, 2012), the NDSHA methodology evolved with respect to the original formulation used by Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489-508, 2003): the computer codes were improved to better fit the need of producing realistic ground shaking maps and ground shaking scenarios, at different scale levels, exploiting the most significant pertinent progresses in data acquisition and modelling. Accordingly, the present study supplies a revised NDSHA map for India. The seismic hazard, expressed in terms of maximum displacement (Dmax), maximum velocity (Vmax) and design ground acceleration (DGA), has been extracted from the synthetic signals and mapped on a regular grid over the studied territory.

Micro-level dynamics of the online information propagation: A user behavior model based on noisy spiking neurons.

PubMed

Lymperopoulos, Ilias N; Ioannou, George D

2016-10-01

We develop and validate a model of the micro-level dynamics underlying the formation of macro-level information propagation patterns in online social networks. In particular, we address the dynamics at the level of the mechanism regulating a user's participation in an online information propagation process. We demonstrate that this mechanism can be realistically described by the dynamics of noisy spiking neurons driven by endogenous and exogenous, deterministic and stochastic stimuli representing the influence modulating one's intention to be an information spreader. Depending on the dynamically changing influence characteristics, time-varying propagation patterns emerge reflecting the temporal structure, strength, and signal-to-noise ratio characteristics of the stimulation driving the online users' information sharing activity. The proposed model constitutes an overarching, novel, and flexible approach to the modeling of the micro-level mechanisms whereby information propagates in online social networks. As such, it can be used for a comprehensive understanding of the online transmission of information, a process integral to the sociocultural evolution of modern societies. The proposed model is highly adaptable and suitable for the study of the propagation patterns of behavior, opinions, and innovations among others. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Organizing Multiple Femtosecond Filaments in Air

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Méchain, G.; Couairon, A.; Franco, M.; Prade, B.; Mysyrowicz, A.

2004-07-01

We show that it is possible to organize regular filamentation patterns in air by imposing either strong field gradients or phase distortions in the input-beam profile of an intense femtosecond laser pulse. A comparison between experiments and 3+1 dimensional numerical simulations confirms this concept and shows for the first time that a control of the transport of high intensities over long distances may be achieved by forcing this well ordered propagation regime. In this case, deterministic effects prevail in multiple femtosecond filamentation, and no transition to the optical turbulence regime is obtained [

Substrate growth dynamics and biomineralization of an Ediacaran encrusting poriferan.

PubMed

Wood, Rachel; Penny, Amelia

2018-01-10

The ability to encrust in order to secure and maintain growth on a substrate is a key competitive innovation in benthic metazoans. Here we describe the substrate growth dynamics, mode of biomineralization and possible affinity of Namapoikia rietoogensis , a large (up to 1 m), robustly skeletal, and modular Ediacaran metazoan which encrusted the walls of synsedimentary fissures within microbial-metazoan reefs. Namapoikia formed laminar or domal morphologies with an internal structure of open tubules and transverse elements, and had a very plastic, non-deterministic growth form which could encrust both fully lithified surfaces as well as living microbial substrates, the latter via modified skeletal holdfasts. Namapoikia shows complex growth interactions and substrate competition with contemporary living microbialites and thrombolites, including the production of plate-like dissepiments in response to microbial overgrowth which served to elevate soft tissue above the microbial surface. Namapoikia could also recover from partial mortality due to microbial fouling. We infer initial skeletal growth to have propagated via the rapid formation of an organic scaffold via a basal pinacoderm prior to calcification. This is likely an ancient mode of biomineralization with similarities to the living calcified demosponge Vaceletia. Namapoikia also shows inferred skeletal growth banding which, combined with its large size, implies notable individual longevity. In sum, Namapoikia was a large, relatively long-lived Ediacaran clonal skeletal metazoan that propagated via an organic scaffold prior to calcification, enabling rapid, effective and dynamic substrate occupation and competition in cryptic reef settings. The open tubular internal structure, highly flexible, non-deterministic skeletal organization, and inferred style of biomineralization of Namapoikia places probable affinity within total-group poriferans. © 2018 The Author(s).

Chiral quantum optics.

PubMed

Lodahl, Peter; Mahmoodian, Sahand; Stobbe, Søren; Rauschenbeutel, Arno; Schneeweiss, Philipp; Volz, Jürgen; Pichler, Hannes; Zoller, Peter

2017-01-25

Advanced photonic nanostructures are currently revolutionizing the optics and photonics that underpin applications ranging from light technology to quantum-information processing. The strong light confinement in these structures can lock the local polarization of the light to its propagation direction, leading to propagation-direction-dependent emission, scattering and absorption of photons by quantum emitters. The possibility of such a propagation-direction-dependent, or chiral, light-matter interaction is not accounted for in standard quantum optics and its recent discovery brought about the research field of chiral quantum optics. The latter offers fundamentally new functionalities and applications: it enables the assembly of non-reciprocal single-photon devices that can be operated in a quantum superposition of two or more of their operational states and the realization of deterministic spin-photon interfaces. Moreover, engineered directional photonic reservoirs could lead to the development of complex quantum networks that, for example, could simulate novel classes of quantum many-body systems.

Analysis of Cyclic Variability of Heat Release for High-EGR GDI Engine Operation with Observations on Implications for Effective Control

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kaul, Brian C; Wagner, Robert M; Green Jr, Johney Boyd

2013-01-01

Operation of spark-ignition (SI) engines with high levels of charge dilution through exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) achieves significant engine efficiency gains while maintaining stoichiometric operation for compatibility with three-way catalysts. Dilution levels, however, are limited by cyclic variability-including significant numbers of misfires-that becomes more pronounced with increasing dilution. This variability has been shown to have both stochastic and deterministic components. Stochastic effects include turbulence, mixing variations, and the like, while the deterministic effect is primarily due to the nonlinear dependence of flame propagation rates and ignition characteristics on the charge composition, which is influenced by the composition of residual gasesmore » from prior cycles. The presence of determinism implies that an increased understanding the dynamics of such systems could lead to effective control approaches that allow operation near the edge of stability, effectively extending the dilution limit. This nonlinear dependence has been characterized previously for homogeneous charge, port fuel-injected (PFI) SI engines operating fuel-lean as well as with inert diluents such as bottled N2 gas. In this paper, cyclic dispersion in a modern boosted gasoline direct injection (GDI) engine using a cooled external EGR loop is examined, and the potential for improvement with effective control is evaluated through the use of symbol sequence statistics and other techniques from chaos theory. Observations related to the potential implications of these results for control approaches that could effectively enable engine operation at the edge of combustion stability are noted.« less

Stochastic Partial Differential Equation Solver for Hydroacoustic Modeling: Improvements to Paracousti Sound Propagation Solver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preston, L. A.

2017-12-01

Marine hydrokinetic (MHK) devices offer a clean, renewable alternative energy source for the future. Responsible utilization of MHK devices, however, requires that the effects of acoustic noise produced by these devices on marine life and marine-related human activities be well understood. Paracousti is a 3-D full waveform acoustic modeling suite that can accurately propagate MHK noise signals in the complex bathymetry found in the near-shore to open ocean environment and considers real properties of the seabed, water column, and air-surface interface. However, this is a deterministic simulation that assumes the environment and source are exactly known. In reality, environmental and source characteristics are often only known in a statistical sense. Thus, to fully characterize the expected noise levels within the marine environment, this uncertainty in environmental and source factors should be incorporated into the acoustic simulations. One method is to use Monte Carlo (MC) techniques where simulation results from a large number of deterministic solutions are aggregated to provide statistical properties of the output signal. However, MC methods can be computationally prohibitive since they can require tens of thousands or more simulations to build up an accurate representation of those statistical properties. An alternative method, using the technique of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDE), allows computation of the statistical properties of output signals at a small fraction of the computational cost of MC. We are developing a SPDE solver for the 3-D acoustic wave propagation problem called Paracousti-UQ to help regulators and operators assess the statistical properties of environmental noise produced by MHK devices. In this presentation, we present the SPDE method and compare statistical distributions of simulated acoustic signals in simple models to MC simulations to show the accuracy and efficiency of the SPDE method. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc. for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Stochastic dynamic modeling of regular and slow earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aso, N.; Ando, R.; Ide, S.

2017-12-01

Both regular and slow earthquakes are slip phenomena on plate boundaries and are simulated by a (quasi-)dynamic modeling [Liu and Rice, 2005]. In these numerical simulations, spatial heterogeneity is usually considered not only for explaining real physical properties but also for evaluating the stability of the calculations or the sensitivity of the results on the condition. However, even though we discretize the model space with small grids, heterogeneity at smaller scales than the grid size is not considered in the models with deterministic governing equations. To evaluate the effect of heterogeneity at the smaller scales we need to consider stochastic interactions between slip and stress in a dynamic modeling. Tidal stress is known to trigger or affect both regular and slow earthquakes [Yabe et al., 2015; Ide et al., 2016], and such an external force with fluctuation can also be considered as a stochastic external force. A healing process of faults may also be stochastic, so we introduce stochastic friction law. In the present study, we propose a stochastic dynamic model to explain both regular and slow earthquakes. We solve mode III problem, which corresponds to the rupture propagation along the strike direction. We use BIEM (boundary integral equation method) scheme to simulate slip evolution, but we add stochastic perturbations in the governing equations, which is usually written in a deterministic manner. As the simplest type of perturbations, we adopt Gaussian deviations in the formulation of the slip-stress kernel, external force, and friction. By increasing the amplitude of perturbations of the slip-stress kernel, we reproduce complicated rupture process of regular earthquakes including unilateral and bilateral ruptures. By perturbing external force, we reproduce slow rupture propagation at a scale of km/day. The slow propagation generated by a combination of fast interaction at S-wave velocity is analogous to the kinetic theory of gasses: thermal diffusion appears much slower than the particle velocity of each molecule. The concept of stochastic triggering originates in the Brownian walk model [Ide, 2008], and the present study introduces the stochastic dynamics into dynamic simulations. The stochastic dynamic model has the potential to explain both regular and slow earthquakes more realistically.

Time Domain and Frequency Domain Deterministic Channel Modeling for Tunnel/Mining Environments.

PubMed

Zhou, Chenming; Jacksha, Ronald; Yan, Lincan; Reyes, Miguel; Kovalchik, Peter

2017-01-01

Understanding wireless channels in complex mining environments is critical for designing optimized wireless systems operated in these environments. In this paper, we propose two physics-based, deterministic ultra-wideband (UWB) channel models for characterizing wireless channels in mining/tunnel environments - one in the time domain and the other in the frequency domain. For the time domain model, a general Channel Impulse Response (CIR) is derived and the result is expressed in the classic UWB tapped delay line model. The derived time domain channel model takes into account major propagation controlling factors including tunnel or entry dimensions, frequency, polarization, electrical properties of the four tunnel walls, and transmitter and receiver locations. For the frequency domain model, a complex channel transfer function is derived analytically. Based on the proposed physics-based deterministic channel models, channel parameters such as delay spread, multipath component number, and angular spread are analyzed. It is found that, despite the presence of heavy multipath, both channel delay spread and angular spread for tunnel environments are relatively smaller compared to that of typical indoor environments. The results and findings in this paper have application in the design and deployment of wireless systems in underground mining environments.

Time Domain and Frequency Domain Deterministic Channel Modeling for Tunnel/Mining Environments

PubMed Central

Zhou, Chenming; Jacksha, Ronald; Yan, Lincan; Reyes, Miguel; Kovalchik, Peter

2018-01-01

Understanding wireless channels in complex mining environments is critical for designing optimized wireless systems operated in these environments. In this paper, we propose two physics-based, deterministic ultra-wideband (UWB) channel models for characterizing wireless channels in mining/tunnel environments — one in the time domain and the other in the frequency domain. For the time domain model, a general Channel Impulse Response (CIR) is derived and the result is expressed in the classic UWB tapped delay line model. The derived time domain channel model takes into account major propagation controlling factors including tunnel or entry dimensions, frequency, polarization, electrical properties of the four tunnel walls, and transmitter and receiver locations. For the frequency domain model, a complex channel transfer function is derived analytically. Based on the proposed physics-based deterministic channel models, channel parameters such as delay spread, multipath component number, and angular spread are analyzed. It is found that, despite the presence of heavy multipath, both channel delay spread and angular spread for tunnel environments are relatively smaller compared to that of typical indoor environments. The results and findings in this paper have application in the design and deployment of wireless systems in underground mining environments.† PMID:29457801

Stochastic and Deterministic Fluctuations in Stimulated Brillouin Scattering

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-10-01

and J. R. Ackerhalt, "Instabilities in the Propagation of Arbitrarily Polarized Counterpropagating Waves in a Nonlinear Kerr Medium," Optical...Ackerhalt, and P. W. Milonni, "Instabilities and Chaos in the Polarizations of Counterpropagating Light Fields," Phys. Rev. Lett. 58, 2432 (1987). iv P...Plenum, New York (1990). V D. J. Gauthier, M. S. Malcuit, A. L. Gaeta, and R. W. Boyd, " Polarization Bistability of Counterpropagating Beams," Phys. Rev

'spup' - an R package for uncertainty propagation in spatial environmental modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawicka, Kasia; Heuvelink, Gerard

2016-04-01

Computer models have become a crucial tool in engineering and environmental sciences for simulating the behaviour of complex static and dynamic systems. However, while many models are deterministic, the uncertainty in their predictions needs to be estimated before they are used for decision support. Currently, advances in uncertainty propagation and assessment have been paralleled by a growing number of software tools for uncertainty analysis, but none has gained recognition for a universal applicability, including case studies with spatial models and spatial model inputs. Due to the growing popularity and applicability of the open source R programming language we undertook a project to develop an R package that facilitates uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling. In particular, the 'spup' package provides functions for examining the uncertainty propagation starting from input data and model parameters, via the environmental model onto model predictions. The functions include uncertainty model specification, stochastic simulation and propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo (MC) techniques, as well as several uncertainty visualization functions. Uncertain environmental variables are represented in the package as objects whose attribute values may be uncertain and described by probability distributions. Both numerical and categorical data types are handled. Spatial auto-correlation within an attribute and cross-correlation between attributes is also accommodated for. For uncertainty propagation the package has implemented the MC approach with efficient sampling algorithms, i.e. stratified random sampling and Latin hypercube sampling. The design includes facilitation of parallel computing to speed up MC computation. The MC realizations may be used as an input to the environmental models called from R, or externally. Selected static and interactive visualization methods that are understandable by non-experts with limited background in statistics can be used to summarize and visualize uncertainty about the measured input, model parameters and output of the uncertainty propagation. We demonstrate that the 'spup' package is an effective and easy tool to apply and can be used in multi-disciplinary research and model-based decision support.

'spup' - an R package for uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawicka, Kasia; Heuvelink, Gerard

2017-04-01

Computer models have become a crucial tool in engineering and environmental sciences for simulating the behaviour of complex static and dynamic systems. However, while many models are deterministic, the uncertainty in their predictions needs to be estimated before they are used for decision support. Currently, advances in uncertainty propagation and assessment have been paralleled by a growing number of software tools for uncertainty analysis, but none has gained recognition for a universal applicability and being able to deal with case studies with spatial models and spatial model inputs. Due to the growing popularity and applicability of the open source R programming language we undertook a project to develop an R package that facilitates uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling. In particular, the 'spup' package provides functions for examining the uncertainty propagation starting from input data and model parameters, via the environmental model onto model predictions. The functions include uncertainty model specification, stochastic simulation and propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo (MC) techniques, as well as several uncertainty visualization functions. Uncertain environmental variables are represented in the package as objects whose attribute values may be uncertain and described by probability distributions. Both numerical and categorical data types are handled. Spatial auto-correlation within an attribute and cross-correlation between attributes is also accommodated for. For uncertainty propagation the package has implemented the MC approach with efficient sampling algorithms, i.e. stratified random sampling and Latin hypercube sampling. The design includes facilitation of parallel computing to speed up MC computation. The MC realizations may be used as an input to the environmental models called from R, or externally. Selected visualization methods that are understandable by non-experts with limited background in statistics can be used to summarize and visualize uncertainty about the measured input, model parameters and output of the uncertainty propagation. We demonstrate that the 'spup' package is an effective and easy tool to apply and can be used in multi-disciplinary research and model-based decision support.

Stochastic inference with spiking neurons in the high-conductance state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrovici, Mihai A.; Bill, Johannes; Bytschok, Ilja; Schemmel, Johannes; Meier, Karlheinz

2016-10-01

The highly variable dynamics of neocortical circuits observed in vivo have been hypothesized to represent a signature of ongoing stochastic inference but stand in apparent contrast to the deterministic response of neurons measured in vitro. Based on a propagation of the membrane autocorrelation across spike bursts, we provide an analytical derivation of the neural activation function that holds for a large parameter space, including the high-conductance state. On this basis, we show how an ensemble of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons with conductance-based synapses embedded in a spiking environment can attain the correct firing statistics for sampling from a well-defined target distribution. For recurrent networks, we examine convergence toward stationarity in computer simulations and demonstrate sample-based Bayesian inference in a mixed graphical model. This points to a new computational role of high-conductance states and establishes a rigorous link between deterministic neuron models and functional stochastic dynamics on the network level.

Single-photon non-linear optics with a quantum dot in a waveguide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Javadi, A.; Söllner, I.; Arcari, M.; Hansen, S. Lindskov; Midolo, L.; Mahmoodian, S.; Kiršanskė, G.; Pregnolato, T.; Lee, E. H.; Song, J. D.; Stobbe, S.; Lodahl, P.

2015-10-01

Strong non-linear interactions between photons enable logic operations for both classical and quantum-information technology. Unfortunately, non-linear interactions are usually feeble and therefore all-optical logic gates tend to be inefficient. A quantum emitter deterministically coupled to a propagating mode fundamentally changes the situation, since each photon inevitably interacts with the emitter, and highly correlated many-photon states may be created. Here we show that a single quantum dot in a photonic-crystal waveguide can be used as a giant non-linearity sensitive at the single-photon level. The non-linear response is revealed from the intensity and quantum statistics of the scattered photons, and contains contributions from an entangled photon-photon bound state. The quantum non-linearity will find immediate applications for deterministic Bell-state measurements and single-photon transistors and paves the way to scalable waveguide-based photonic quantum-computing architectures.

Model of Atmospheric Links on Optical Communications from High Altitude

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Subich, Christopher

2004-01-01

Optical communication links have the potential to solve many of the problems of current radio and microwave links to satellites and high-altitude aircraft. The higher frequency involved in optical systems allows for significantly greater signal bandwidth, and thus information transfer rate, in excess of 10 Gbps, and the highly directional nature of laser-based signals eliminates the need for frequency-division multiplexing seen in radio and microwave links today. The atmosphere, however, distorts an optical signal differently than a microwave signal. While the ionosphere is one of the most significant sources of noise and distortion in a microwave or radio signal, the lower atmosphere affects an optical signal more significantly. Refractive index fluctuations, primarily caused by changes in atmospheric temperature and density, distort the incoming signal in both deterministic and nondeterministic ways. Additionally, suspended particles, such as those in haze or rain, further corrupt the transmitted signal. To model many of the atmospheric effects on the propagating beam, we use simulations based on the beam-propagation method. This method, developed both for simulation of signals in waveguides and propagation in atmospheric turbulence, separates the propagation into a diffraction and refraction problem. The diffraction step is an exact solution, within the limits of numerical precision, to the problem of propagation in free space, and the refraction step models the refractive index variances over a segment of the propagation path. By applying refraction for a segment of the propagation path, then diffracting over that same segment, this method forms a good approximation to true propagation through the atmospheric medium. Iterating over small segments of the total propagation path gives a good approximation to the problem of propagation over the entire path. Parameters in this model, such as initial beam profile and atmospheric constants, are easily modified in a simulation such as this, which allows for the rapid analysis of different propagation scenarios. Therefore, this method allows the development of a near-optimal system design for a wide range of situations, typical of what would be seen in different atmospheric conditions over a receiving ground station. A simulation framework based upon this model was developed in FORTRAN, and for moderate grid sizes and propagation distances these simulations are computable in reasonable time on a standard workstation. This presentation will discuss results thus far.

Optimal strategies for throwing accurately

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The accuracy of throwing in games and sports is governed by how errors in planning and initial conditions are propagated by the dynamics of the projectile. In the simplest setting, the projectile path is typically described by a deterministic parabolic trajectory which has the potential to amplify noisy launch conditions. By analysing how parabolic trajectories propagate errors, we show how to devise optimal strategies for a throwing task demanding accuracy. Our calculations explain observed speed–accuracy trade-offs, preferred throwing style of overarm versus underarm, and strategies for games such as dart throwing, despite having left out most biological complexities. As our criteria for optimal performance depend on the target location, shape and the level of uncertainty in planning, they also naturally suggest an iterative scheme to learn throwing strategies by trial and error. PMID:28484641

Optimal strategies for throwing accurately

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venkadesan, M.; Mahadevan, L.

2017-04-01

The accuracy of throwing in games and sports is governed by how errors in planning and initial conditions are propagated by the dynamics of the projectile. In the simplest setting, the projectile path is typically described by a deterministic parabolic trajectory which has the potential to amplify noisy launch conditions. By analysing how parabolic trajectories propagate errors, we show how to devise optimal strategies for a throwing task demanding accuracy. Our calculations explain observed speed-accuracy trade-offs, preferred throwing style of overarm versus underarm, and strategies for games such as dart throwing, despite having left out most biological complexities. As our criteria for optimal performance depend on the target location, shape and the level of uncertainty in planning, they also naturally suggest an iterative scheme to learn throwing strategies by trial and error.

Deterministic photon-emitter coupling in chiral photonic circuits.

PubMed

Söllner, Immo; Mahmoodian, Sahand; Hansen, Sofie Lindskov; Midolo, Leonardo; Javadi, Alisa; Kiršanskė, Gabija; Pregnolato, Tommaso; El-Ella, Haitham; Lee, Eun Hye; Song, Jin Dong; Stobbe, Søren; Lodahl, Peter

2015-09-01

Engineering photon emission and scattering is central to modern photonics applications ranging from light harvesting to quantum-information processing. To this end, nanophotonic waveguides are well suited as they confine photons to a one-dimensional geometry and thereby increase the light-matter interaction. In a regular waveguide, a quantum emitter interacts equally with photons in either of the two propagation directions. This symmetry is violated in nanophotonic structures in which non-transversal local electric-field components imply that photon emission and scattering may become directional. Here we show that the helicity of the optical transition of a quantum emitter determines the direction of single-photon emission in a specially engineered photonic-crystal waveguide. We observe single-photon emission into the waveguide with a directionality that exceeds 90% under conditions in which practically all the emitted photons are coupled to the waveguide. The chiral light-matter interaction enables deterministic and highly directional photon emission for experimentally achievable on-chip non-reciprocal photonic elements. These may serve as key building blocks for single-photon optical diodes, transistors and deterministic quantum gates. Furthermore, chiral photonic circuits allow the dissipative preparation of entangled states of multiple emitters for experimentally achievable parameters, may lead to novel topological photon states and could be applied for directional steering of light.

Deterministic photon-emitter coupling in chiral photonic circuits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Söllner, Immo; Mahmoodian, Sahand; Hansen, Sofie Lindskov; Midolo, Leonardo; Javadi, Alisa; Kiršanskė, Gabija; Pregnolato, Tommaso; El-Ella, Haitham; Lee, Eun Hye; Song, Jin Dong; Stobbe, Søren; Lodahl, Peter

2015-09-01

Engineering photon emission and scattering is central to modern photonics applications ranging from light harvesting to quantum-information processing. To this end, nanophotonic waveguides are well suited as they confine photons to a one-dimensional geometry and thereby increase the light-matter interaction. In a regular waveguide, a quantum emitter interacts equally with photons in either of the two propagation directions. This symmetry is violated in nanophotonic structures in which non-transversal local electric-field components imply that photon emission and scattering may become directional. Here we show that the helicity of the optical transition of a quantum emitter determines the direction of single-photon emission in a specially engineered photonic-crystal waveguide. We observe single-photon emission into the waveguide with a directionality that exceeds 90% under conditions in which practically all the emitted photons are coupled to the waveguide. The chiral light-matter interaction enables deterministic and highly directional photon emission for experimentally achievable on-chip non-reciprocal photonic elements. These may serve as key building blocks for single-photon optical diodes, transistors and deterministic quantum gates. Furthermore, chiral photonic circuits allow the dissipative preparation of entangled states of multiple emitters for experimentally achievable parameters, may lead to novel topological photon states and could be applied for directional steering of light.

Singular growth shapes in turbulent field theories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conrado, Claudine V.; Bohr, Tomas

1994-05-01

In this work we study deterministic, turbulent partial differential equations (the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation and generalizations) with initial conditions which are nonzero only in a small region. We demonstrate that the asymptotic state has a well-defined growth shape, which can be determined by the combination of nonlinear growth velocities, and front propagation governed by the linear instabilities. We show that the growth shapes are, in general, singular and that a new type of instability occurs when the growth shape becomes discontinuous.

Continuous-time random walks with reset events. Historical background and new perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montero, Miquel; Masó-Puigdellosas, Axel; Villarroel, Javier

2017-09-01

In this paper, we consider a stochastic process that may experience random reset events which relocate the system to its starting position. We focus our attention on a one-dimensional, monotonic continuous-time random walk with a constant drift: the process moves in a fixed direction between the reset events, either by the effect of the random jumps, or by the action of a deterministic bias. However, the orientation of its motion is randomly determined after each restart. As a result of these alternating dynamics, interesting properties do emerge. General formulas for the propagator as well as for two extreme statistics, the survival probability and the mean first-passage time, are also derived. The rigor of these analytical results is verified by numerical estimations, for particular but illuminating examples.

Anticoagulants and the propagation phase of thrombin generation.

PubMed

Orfeo, Thomas; Gissel, Matthew; Butenas, Saulius; Undas, Anetta; Brummel-Ziedins, Kathleen E; Mann, Kenneth G

2011-01-01

The view that clot time-based assays do not provide a sufficient assessment of an individual's hemostatic competence, especially in the context of anticoagulant therapy, has provoked a search for new metrics, with significant focus directed at techniques that define the propagation phase of thrombin generation. Here we use our deterministic mathematical model of tissue-factor initiated thrombin generation in combination with reconstructions using purified protein components to characterize how the interplay between anticoagulant mechanisms and variable composition of the coagulation proteome result in differential regulation of the propagation phase of thrombin generation. Thrombin parameters were extracted from computationally derived thrombin generation profiles generated using coagulation proteome factor data from warfarin-treated individuals (N = 54) and matching groups of control individuals (N = 37). A computational clot time prolongation value (cINR) was devised that correlated with their actual International Normalized Ratio (INR) values, with differences between individual INR and cINR values shown to derive from the insensitivity of the INR to tissue factor pathway inhibitor (TFPI). The analysis suggests that normal range variation in TFPI levels could be an important contributor to the failure of the INR to adequately reflect the anticoagulated state in some individuals. Warfarin-induced changes in thrombin propagation phase parameters were then compared to those induced by unfractionated heparin, fondaparinux, rivaroxaban, and a reversible thrombin inhibitor. Anticoagulants were assessed at concentrations yielding equivalent cINR values, with each anticoagulant evaluated using 32 unique coagulation proteome compositions. The analyses showed that no anticoagulant recapitulated all features of warfarin propagation phase dynamics; differences in propagation phase effects suggest that anticoagulants that selectively target fXa or thrombin may provoke fewer bleeding episodes. More generally, the study shows that computational modeling of the response of core elements of the coagulation proteome to a physiologically relevant tissue factor stimulus may improve the monitoring of a broad range of anticoagulants.

Interaction of the sonic boom with atmospheric turbulence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rusak, Zvi; Cole, Julian D.

1994-01-01

Theoretical research was carried out to study the effect of free-stream turbulence on sonic boom pressure fields. A new transonic small-disturbance model to analyze the interactions of random disturbances with a weak shock was developed. The model equation has an extended form of the classic small-disturbance equation for unsteady transonic aerodynamics. An alternative approach shows that the pressure field may be described by an equation that has an extended form of the classic nonlinear acoustics equation that describes the propagation of sound beams with narrow angular spectrum. The model shows that diffraction effects, nonlinear steepening effects, focusing and caustic effects and random induced vorticity fluctuations interact simultaneously to determine the development of the shock wave in space and time and the pressure field behind it. A finite-difference algorithm to solve the mixed type elliptic-hyperbolic flows around the shock wave was also developed. Numerical calculations of shock wave interactions with various deterministic and random fluctuations will be presented in a future report.

DISFRAC Version 2.0 Users Guide

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cochran, Kristine B; Erickson, Marjorie A; Williams, Paul T

2013-01-01

DISFRAC is the implementation of a theoretical, multi-scale model for the prediction of fracture toughness in the ductile-to-brittle transition temperature (DBTT) region of ferritic steels. Empirically-derived models of the DBTT region cannot legitimately be extrapolated beyond the range of existing fracture toughness data. DISFRAC requires only tensile properties and microstructural information as input, and thus allows for a wider range of application than empirical, toughness data dependent models. DISFRAC is also a framework for investigating the roles of various microstructural and macroscopic effects on fracture behavior, including carbide particle sizes, grain sizes, strain rates, and material condition. DISFRAC s novelmore » approach is to assess the interaction effects of macroscopic conditions (geometry, loading conditions) with variable microstructural features on cleavage crack initiation and propagation. The model addresses all stages of the fracture process, from microcrack initiation within a carbide particle, to propagation of that crack through grains and across grain boundaries, finally to catastrophic failure of the material. The DISFRAC procedure repeatedly performs a deterministic analysis of microcrack initiation and propagation within a macroscopic crack plastic zone to calculate a critical fracture toughness value for each microstructural geometry set. The current version of DISFRAC, version 2.0, is a research code for developing and testing models related to cleavage fracture and transition toughness. The various models and computations have evolved significantly over the course of development and are expected to continue to evolve as testing and data collection continue. This document serves as a guide to the usage and theoretical foundations of DISFRAC v2.0. Feedback is welcomed and encouraged.« less

Probabilistic short-term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: A case study for tephra fallout

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio; Sandri, Laura; Macedonio, Giovanni; Marzocchi, Warner

2014-12-01

During volcanic crises, volcanologists estimate the impact of possible imminent eruptions usually through deterministic modeling of the effects of one or a few preestablished scenarios. Despite such an approach may bring an important information to the decision makers, the sole use of deterministic scenarios does not allow scientists to properly take into consideration all uncertainties, and it cannot be used to assess quantitatively the risk because the latter unavoidably requires a probabilistic approach. We present a model based on the concept of Bayesian event tree (hereinafter named BET_VH_ST, standing for Bayesian event tree for short-term volcanic hazard), for short-term near-real-time probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis formulated for any potential hazardous phenomenon accompanying an eruption. The specific goal of BET_VH_ST is to produce a quantitative assessment of the probability of exceedance of any potential level of intensity for a given volcanic hazard due to eruptions within restricted time windows (hours to days) in any area surrounding the volcano, accounting for all natural and epistemic uncertainties. BET_VH_ST properly assesses the conditional probability at each level of the event tree accounting for any relevant information derived from the monitoring system, theoretical models, and the past history of the volcano, propagating any relevant epistemic uncertainty underlying these assessments. As an application example of the model, we apply BET_VH_ST to assess short-term volcanic hazard related to tephra loading during Major Emergency Simulation Exercise, a major exercise at Mount Vesuvius that took place from 19 to 23 October 2006, consisting in a blind simulation of Vesuvius reactivation, from the early warning phase up to the final eruption, including the evacuation of a sample of about 2000 people from the area at risk. The results show that BET_VH_ST is able to produce short-term forecasts of the impact of tephra fall during a rapidly evolving crisis, accurately accounting for and propagating all uncertainties and enabling rational decision making under uncertainty.

Inferring Fitness Effects from Time-Resolved Sequence Data with a Delay-Deterministic Model

PubMed Central

Nené, Nuno R.; Dunham, Alistair S.; Illingworth, Christopher J. R.

2018-01-01

A common challenge arising from the observation of an evolutionary system over time is to infer the magnitude of selection acting upon a specific genetic variant, or variants, within the population. The inference of selection may be confounded by the effects of genetic drift in a system, leading to the development of inference procedures to account for these effects. However, recent work has suggested that deterministic models of evolution may be effective in capturing the effects of selection even under complex models of demography, suggesting the more general application of deterministic approaches to inference. Responding to this literature, we here note a case in which a deterministic model of evolution may give highly misleading inferences, resulting from the nondeterministic properties of mutation in a finite population. We propose an alternative approach that acts to correct for this error, and which we denote the delay-deterministic model. Applying our model to a simple evolutionary system, we demonstrate its performance in quantifying the extent of selection acting within that system. We further consider the application of our model to sequence data from an evolutionary experiment. We outline scenarios in which our model may produce improved results for the inference of selection, noting that such situations can be easily identified via the use of a regular deterministic model. PMID:29500183

Statistically Qualified Neuro-Analytic system and Method for Process Monitoring

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vilim, Richard B.; Garcia, Humberto E.; Chen, Frederick W.

1998-11-04

An apparatus and method for monitoring a process involves development and application of a statistically qualified neuro-analytic (SQNA) model to accurately and reliably identify process change. The development of the SQNA model is accomplished in two steps: deterministic model adaption and stochastic model adaptation. Deterministic model adaption involves formulating an analytic model of the process representing known process characteristics,augmenting the analytic model with a neural network that captures unknown process characteristics, and training the resulting neuro-analytic model by adjusting the neural network weights according to a unique scaled equation emor minimization technique. Stochastic model adaptation involves qualifying any remaining uncertaintymore » in the trained neuro-analytic model by formulating a likelihood function, given an error propagation equation, for computing the probability that the neuro-analytic model generates measured process output. Preferably, the developed SQNA model is validated using known sequential probability ratio tests and applied to the process as an on-line monitoring system.« less

Signaling cascades modulate the speed of signal propagation through space.

PubMed

Govern, Christopher C; Chakraborty, Arup K

2009-01-01

Cells are not mixed bags of signaling molecules. As a consequence, signals must travel from their origin to distal locations. Much is understood about the purely diffusive propagation of signals through space. Many signals, however, propagate via signaling cascades. Here, we show that, depending on their kinetics, cascades speed up or slow down the propagation of signals through space, relative to pure diffusion. We modeled simple cascades operating under different limits of Michaelis-Menten kinetics using deterministic reaction-diffusion equations. Cascades operating far from enzyme saturation speed up signal propagation; the second mobile species moves more quickly than the first through space, on average. The enhanced speed is due to more efficient serial activation of a downstream signaling module (by the signaling molecule immediately upstream in the cascade) at points distal from the signaling origin, compared to locations closer to the source. Conversely, cascades operating under saturated kinetics, which exhibit zero-order ultrasensitivity, can slow down signals, ultimately localizing them to regions around the origin. Signal speed modulation may be a fundamental function of cascades, affecting the ability of signals to penetrate within a cell, to cross-react with other signals, and to activate distant targets. In particular, enhanced speeds provide a way to increase signal penetration into a cell without needing to flood the cell with large numbers of active signaling molecules; conversely, diminished speeds in zero-order ultrasensitive cascades facilitate strong, but localized, signaling.

A stochastic-field description of finite-size spiking neural networks

PubMed Central

Longtin, André

2017-01-01

Neural network dynamics are governed by the interaction of spiking neurons. Stochastic aspects of single-neuron dynamics propagate up to the network level and shape the dynamical and informational properties of the population. Mean-field models of population activity disregard the finite-size stochastic fluctuations of network dynamics and thus offer a deterministic description of the system. Here, we derive a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) describing the temporal evolution of the finite-size refractory density, which represents the proportion of neurons in a given refractory state at any given time. The population activity—the density of active neurons per unit time—is easily extracted from this refractory density. The SPDE includes finite-size effects through a two-dimensional Gaussian white noise that acts both in time and along the refractory dimension. For an infinite number of neurons the standard mean-field theory is recovered. A discretization of the SPDE along its characteristic curves allows direct simulations of the activity of large but finite spiking networks; this constitutes the main advantage of our approach. Linearizing the SPDE with respect to the deterministic asynchronous state allows the theoretical investigation of finite-size activity fluctuations. In particular, analytical expressions for the power spectrum and autocorrelation of activity fluctuations are obtained. Moreover, our approach can be adapted to incorporate multiple interacting populations and quasi-renewal single-neuron dynamics. PMID:28787447

APPLIED OPTICS. Overcoming Kerr-induced capacity limit in optical fiber transmission.

PubMed

Temprana, E; Myslivets, E; Kuo, B P-P; Liu, L; Ataie, V; Alic, N; Radic, S

2015-06-26

Nonlinear optical response of silica imposes a fundamental limit on the information transfer capacity in optical fibers. Communication beyond this limit requires higher signal power and suppression of nonlinear distortions to prevent irreversible information loss. The nonlinear interaction in silica is a deterministic phenomenon that can, in principle, be completely reversed. However, attempts to remove the effects of nonlinear propagation have led to only modest improvements, and the precise physical mechanism preventing nonlinear cancellation remains unknown. We demonstrate that optical carrier stability plays a critical role in canceling Kerr-induced distortions and that nonlinear wave interaction in silica can be substantially reverted if optical carriers possess a sufficient degree of mutual coherence. These measurements indicate that fiber information capacity can be notably increased over previous estimates. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Comparison of deterministic and stochastic approaches for isotopic concentration and decay heat uncertainty quantification on elementary fission pulse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahaye, S.; Huynh, T. D.; Tsilanizara, A.

2016-03-01

Uncertainty quantification of interest outputs in nuclear fuel cycle is an important issue for nuclear safety, from nuclear facilities to long term deposits. Most of those outputs are functions of the isotopic vector density which is estimated by fuel cycle codes, such as DARWIN/PEPIN2, MENDEL, ORIGEN or FISPACT. CEA code systems DARWIN/PEPIN2 and MENDEL propagate by two different methods the uncertainty from nuclear data inputs to isotopic concentrations and decay heat. This paper shows comparisons between those two codes on a Uranium-235 thermal fission pulse. Effects of nuclear data evaluation's choice (ENDF/B-VII.1, JEFF-3.1.1 and JENDL-2011) is inspected in this paper. All results show good agreement between both codes and methods, ensuring the reliability of both approaches for a given evaluation.

Nonclassical acoustics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kentzer, C. P.

1976-01-01

A statistical approach to sound propagation is considered in situations where, due to the presence of large gradients of properties of the medium, the classical (deterministic) treatment of wave motion is inadequate. Mathematical methods for wave motions not restricted to small wavelengths (analogous to known methods of quantum mechanics) are used to formulate a wave theory of sound in nonuniform flows. Nonlinear transport equations for field probabilities are derived for the limiting case of noninteracting sound waves and it is postulated that such transport equations, appropriately generalized, may be used to predict the statistical behavior of sound in arbitrary flows.

Inferring Fitness Effects from Time-Resolved Sequence Data with a Delay-Deterministic Model.

PubMed

Nené, Nuno R; Dunham, Alistair S; Illingworth, Christopher J R

2018-05-01

A common challenge arising from the observation of an evolutionary system over time is to infer the magnitude of selection acting upon a specific genetic variant, or variants, within the population. The inference of selection may be confounded by the effects of genetic drift in a system, leading to the development of inference procedures to account for these effects. However, recent work has suggested that deterministic models of evolution may be effective in capturing the effects of selection even under complex models of demography, suggesting the more general application of deterministic approaches to inference. Responding to this literature, we here note a case in which a deterministic model of evolution may give highly misleading inferences, resulting from the nondeterministic properties of mutation in a finite population. We propose an alternative approach that acts to correct for this error, and which we denote the delay-deterministic model. Applying our model to a simple evolutionary system, we demonstrate its performance in quantifying the extent of selection acting within that system. We further consider the application of our model to sequence data from an evolutionary experiment. We outline scenarios in which our model may produce improved results for the inference of selection, noting that such situations can be easily identified via the use of a regular deterministic model. Copyright © 2018 Nené et al.

GPU-based simulation of optical propagation through turbulence for active and passive imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monnier, Goulven; Duval, François-Régis; Amram, Solène

2014-10-01

IMOTEP is a GPU-based (Graphical Processing Units) software relying on a fast parallel implementation of Fresnel diffraction through successive phase screens. Its applications include active imaging, laser telemetry and passive imaging through turbulence with anisoplanatic spatial and temporal fluctuations. Thanks to parallel implementation on GPU, speedups ranging from 40X to 70X are achieved. The present paper gives a brief overview of IMOTEP models, algorithms, implementation and user interface. It then focuses on major improvements recently brought to the anisoplanatic imaging simulation method. Previously, we took advantage of the computational power offered by the GPU to develop a simulation method based on large series of deterministic realisations of the PSF distorted by turbulence. The phase screen propagation algorithm, by reproducing higher moments of the incident wavefront distortion, provides realistic PSFs. However, we first used a coarse gaussian model to fit the numerical PSFs and characterise there spatial statistics through only 3 parameters (two-dimensional displacements of centroid and width). Meanwhile, this approach was unable to reproduce the effects related to the details of the PSF structure, especially the "speckles" leading to prominent high-frequency content in short-exposure images. To overcome this limitation, we recently implemented a new empirical model of the PSF, based on Principal Components Analysis (PCA), ought to catch most of the PSF complexity. The GPU implementation allows estimating and handling efficiently the numerous (up to several hundreds) principal components typically required under the strong turbulence regime. A first demanding computational step involves PCA, phase screen propagation and covariance estimates. In a second step, realistic instantaneous images, fully accounting for anisoplanatic effects, are quickly generated. Preliminary results are presented.

An efficient HZETRN (a galactic cosmic ray transport code)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shinn, Judy L.; Wilson, John W.

1992-01-01

An accurate and efficient engineering code for analyzing the shielding requirements against the high-energy galactic heavy ions is needed. The HZETRN is a deterministic code developed at Langley Research Center that is constantly under improvement both in physics and numerical computation and is targeted for such use. One problem area connected with the space-marching technique used in this code is the propagation of the local truncation error. By improving the numerical algorithms for interpolation, integration, and grid distribution formula, the efficiency of the code is increased by a factor of eight as the number of energy grid points is reduced. The numerical accuracy of better than 2 percent for a shield thickness of 150 g/cm(exp 2) is found when a 45 point energy grid is used. The propagating step size, which is related to the perturbation theory, is also reevaluated.

Fully adaptive propagation of the quantum-classical Liouville equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horenko, Illia; Weiser, Martin; Schmidt, Burkhard; Schütte, Christof

2004-05-01

In mixed quantum-classical molecular dynamics few but important degrees of freedom of a dynamical system are modeled quantum-mechanically while the remaining ones are treated within the classical approximation. Rothe methods established in the theory of partial differential equations are used to control both temporal and spatial discretization errors on grounds of a global tolerance criterion. The TRAIL (trapezoidal rule for adaptive integration of Liouville dynamics) scheme [I. Horenko and M. Weiser, J. Comput. Chem. 24, 1921 (2003)] has been extended to account for nonadiabatic effects in molecular dynamics described by the quantum-classical Liouville equation. In the context of particle methods, the quality of the spatial approximation of the phase-space distributions is maximized while the numerical condition of the least-squares problem for the parameters of particles is minimized. The resulting dynamical scheme is based on a simultaneous propagation of moving particles (Gaussian and Dirac deltalike trajectories) in phase space employing a fully adaptive strategy to upgrade Dirac to Gaussian particles and, vice versa, downgrading Gaussians to Dirac-type trajectories. This allows for the combination of Monte-Carlo-based strategies for the sampling of densities and coherences in multidimensional problems with deterministic treatment of nonadiabatic effects. Numerical examples demonstrate the application of the method to spin-boson systems in different dimensionality. Nonadiabatic effects occurring at conical intersections are treated in the diabatic representation. By decreasing the global tolerance, the numerical solution obtained from the TRAIL scheme are shown to converge towards exact results.

Fully adaptive propagation of the quantum-classical Liouville equation.

PubMed

Horenko, Illia; Weiser, Martin; Schmidt, Burkhard; Schütte, Christof

2004-05-15

In mixed quantum-classical molecular dynamics few but important degrees of freedom of a dynamical system are modeled quantum-mechanically while the remaining ones are treated within the classical approximation. Rothe methods established in the theory of partial differential equations are used to control both temporal and spatial discretization errors on grounds of a global tolerance criterion. The TRAIL (trapezoidal rule for adaptive integration of Liouville dynamics) scheme [I. Horenko and M. Weiser, J. Comput. Chem. 24, 1921 (2003)] has been extended to account for nonadiabatic effects in molecular dynamics described by the quantum-classical Liouville equation. In the context of particle methods, the quality of the spatial approximation of the phase-space distributions is maximized while the numerical condition of the least-squares problem for the parameters of particles is minimized. The resulting dynamical scheme is based on a simultaneous propagation of moving particles (Gaussian and Dirac deltalike trajectories) in phase space employing a fully adaptive strategy to upgrade Dirac to Gaussian particles and, vice versa, downgrading Gaussians to Dirac-type trajectories. This allows for the combination of Monte-Carlo-based strategies for the sampling of densities and coherences in multidimensional problems with deterministic treatment of nonadiabatic effects. Numerical examples demonstrate the application of the method to spin-boson systems in different dimensionality. Nonadiabatic effects occurring at conical intersections are treated in the diabatic representation. By decreasing the global tolerance, the numerical solution obtained from the TRAIL scheme are shown to converge towards exact results.

Uncertainty Propagation in Hypersonic Vehicle Aerothermoelastic Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamorte, Nicolas Etienne

Hypersonic vehicles face a challenging flight environment. The aerothermoelastic analysis of its components requires numerous simplifying approximations. Identifying and quantifying the effect of uncertainties pushes the limits of the existing deterministic models, and is pursued in this work. An uncertainty quantification framework is used to propagate the effects of identified uncertainties on the stability margins and performance of the different systems considered. First, the aeroelastic stability of a typical section representative of a control surface on a hypersonic vehicle is examined. Variability in the uncoupled natural frequencies of the system is modeled to mimic the effect of aerodynamic heating. Next, the stability of an aerodynamically heated panel representing a component of the skin of a generic hypersonic vehicle is considered. Uncertainty in the location of transition from laminar to turbulent flow and the heat flux prediction is quantified using CFD. In both cases significant reductions of the stability margins are observed. A loosely coupled airframe--integrated scramjet engine is considered next. The elongated body and cowl of the engine flow path are subject to harsh aerothermodynamic loading which causes it to deform. Uncertainty associated with deformation prediction is propagated to the engine performance analysis. The cowl deformation is the main contributor to the sensitivity of the propulsion system performance. Finally, a framework for aerothermoelastic stability boundary calculation for hypersonic vehicles using CFD is developed. The usage of CFD enables one to consider different turbulence conditions, laminar or turbulent, and different models of the air mixture, in particular real gas model which accounts for dissociation of molecules at high temperature. The system is found to be sensitive to turbulence modeling as well as the location of the transition from laminar to turbulent flow. Real gas effects play a minor role in the flight conditions considered. These studies demonstrate the advantages of accounting for uncertainty at an early stage of the analysis. They emphasize the important relation between heat flux modeling, thermal stresses and stability margins of hypersonic vehicles.

Uncertainty quantification-based robust aerodynamic optimization of laminar flow nacelle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, Neng; Tao, Yang; Liu, Zhiyong; Lin, Jun

2018-05-01

The aerodynamic performance of laminar flow nacelle is highly sensitive to uncertain working conditions, especially the surface roughness. An efficient robust aerodynamic optimization method on the basis of non-deterministic computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulation and Efficient Global Optimization (EGO)algorithm was employed. A non-intrusive polynomial chaos method is used in conjunction with an existing well-verified CFD module to quantify the uncertainty propagation in the flow field. This paper investigates the roughness modeling behavior with the γ-Ret shear stress transport model including modeling flow transition and surface roughness effects. The roughness effects are modeled to simulate sand grain roughness. A Class-Shape Transformation-based parametrical description of the nacelle contour as part of an automatic design evaluation process is presented. A Design-of-Experiments (DoE) was performed and surrogate model by Kriging method was built. The new design nacelle process demonstrates that significant improvements of both mean and variance of the efficiency are achieved and the proposed method can be applied to laminar flow nacelle design successfully.

Estimate Tsunami Flow Conditions and Large-Debris Tracks for the Design of Coastal Infrastructures along Coastlines of the U.S. Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Y.; Thomas, S.; Zhou, H.; Arcas, D.; Titov, V. V.

2017-12-01

The increasing potential tsunami hazards pose great challenges for infrastructures along the coastlines of the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Tsunami impact at a coastal site is usually assessed from deterministic scenarios based on 10,000 years of geological records in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ). Aside from these deterministic methods, the new ASCE 7-16 tsunami provisions provide engineering design criteria of tsunami loads on buildings based on a probabilistic approach. This work develops a site-specific model near Newport, OR using high-resolution grids, and compute tsunami inundation depth and velocities at the study site resulted from credible probabilistic and deterministic earthquake sources in the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Three Cascadia scenarios, two deterministic scenarios, XXL1 and L1, and a 2,500-yr probabilistic scenario compliant with the new ASCE 7-16 standard, are simulated using combination of a depth-averaged shallow water model for offshore propagation and a Boussinesq-type model for onshore inundation. We speculate on the methods and procedure to obtain the 2,500-year probabilistic scenario for Newport that is compliant with the ASCE 7-16 tsunami provisions. We provide details of model results, particularly the inundation depth and flow speed for a new building, which will also be designated as a tsunami vertical evacuation shelter, at Newport, Oregon. We show that the ASCE 7-16 consistent hazards are between those obtained from deterministic L1 and XXL1 scenarios, and the greatest impact on the building may come from later waves. As a further step, we utilize the inundation model results to numerically compute tracks of large vessels in the vicinity of the building site and estimate if these vessels will impact on the building site during the extreme XXL1 and ASCE 7-16 hazard-consistent scenarios. Two-step study is carried out first to study tracks of massless particles and then large vessels with assigned mass considering drag force, inertial force, ship grounding and mooring. The simulation results show that none of the large vessels will impact on the building site in all tested scenarios.

Topology optimization under stochastic stiffness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asadpoure, Alireza

Topology optimization is a systematic computational tool for optimizing the layout of materials within a domain for engineering design problems. It allows variation of structural boundaries and connectivities. This freedom in the design space often enables discovery of new, high performance designs. However, solutions obtained by performing the optimization in a deterministic setting may be impractical or suboptimal when considering real-world engineering conditions with inherent variabilities including (for example) variabilities in fabrication processes and operating conditions. The aim of this work is to provide a computational methodology for topology optimization in the presence of uncertainties associated with structural stiffness, such as uncertain material properties and/or structural geometry. Existing methods for topology optimization under deterministic conditions are first reviewed. Modifications are then proposed to improve the numerical performance of the so-called Heaviside Projection Method (HPM) in continuum domains. Next, two approaches, perturbation and Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE), are proposed to account for uncertainties in the optimization procedure. These approaches are intrusive, allowing tight and efficient coupling of the uncertainty quantification with the optimization sensitivity analysis. The work herein develops a robust topology optimization framework aimed at reducing the sensitivity of optimized solutions to uncertainties. The perturbation-based approach combines deterministic topology optimization with a perturbation method for the quantification of uncertainties. The use of perturbation transforms the problem of topology optimization under uncertainty to an augmented deterministic topology optimization problem. The PCE approach combines the spectral stochastic approach for the representation and propagation of uncertainties with an existing deterministic topology optimization technique. The resulting compact representations for the response quantities allow for efficient and accurate calculation of sensitivities of response statistics with respect to the design variables. The proposed methods are shown to be successful at generating robust optimal topologies. Examples from topology optimization in continuum and discrete domains (truss structures) under uncertainty are presented. It is also shown that proposed methods lead to significant computational savings when compared to Monte Carlo-based optimization which involve multiple formations and inversions of the global stiffness matrix and that results obtained from the proposed method are in excellent agreement with those obtained from a Monte Carlo-based optimization algorithm.

Current-induced switching in a magnetic insulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avci, Can Onur; Quindeau, Andy; Pai, Chi-Feng; Mann, Maxwell; Caretta, Lucas; Tang, Astera S.; Onbasli, Mehmet C.; Ross, Caroline A.; Beach, Geoffrey S. D.

2017-03-01

The spin Hall effect in heavy metals converts charge current into pure spin current, which can be injected into an adjacent ferromagnet to exert a torque. This spin-orbit torque (SOT) has been widely used to manipulate the magnetization in metallic ferromagnets. In the case of magnetic insulators (MIs), although charge currents cannot flow, spin currents can propagate, but current-induced control of the magnetization in a MI has so far remained elusive. Here we demonstrate spin-current-induced switching of a perpendicularly magnetized thulium iron garnet film driven by charge current in a Pt overlayer. We estimate a relatively large spin-mixing conductance and damping-like SOT through spin Hall magnetoresistance and harmonic Hall measurements, respectively, indicating considerable spin transparency at the Pt/MI interface. We show that spin currents injected across this interface lead to deterministic magnetization reversal at low current densities, paving the road towards ultralow-dissipation spintronic devices based on MIs.

A deterministic guide for material and mode dependence of on-chip electro-optic modulator performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amin, Rubab; Suer, Can; Ma, Zhizhen; Sarpkaya, Ibrahim; Khurgin, Jacob B.; Agarwal, Ritesh; Sorger, Volker J.

2017-10-01

Electro-optic modulation is a key function in optical data communication and possible future optical computing engines. The performance of modulators intricately depends on the interaction between the actively modulated material and the propagating waveguide mode. While high-performing modulators were demonstrated before, the approaches were taken as ad-hoc. Here we show the first systematic investigation to incorporate a holistic analysis for high-performance and ultra-compact electro-optic modulators on-chip. We show that intricate interplay between active modulation material and optical mode plays a key role in the device operation. Based on physical tradeoffs such as index modulation, loss, optical confinement factors and slow-light effects, we find that bias-material-mode regions exist where high phase modulation and high loss (absorption) modulation is found. This work paves the way for a holistic design rule of electro-optic modulators for on-chip integration.

Developing Stochastic Models as Inputs for High-Frequency Ground Motion Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savran, William Harvey

High-frequency ( 10 Hz) deterministic ground motion simulations are challenged by our understanding of the small-scale structure of the earth's crust and the rupture process during an earthquake. We will likely never obtain deterministic models that can accurately describe these processes down to the meter scale length required for broadband wave propagation. Instead, we can attempt to explain the behavior, in a statistical sense, by including stochastic models defined by correlations observed in the natural earth and through physics based simulations of the earthquake rupture process. Toward this goal, we develop stochastic models to address both of the primary considerations for deterministic ground motion simulations: namely, the description of the material properties in the crust, and broadband earthquake source descriptions. Using borehole sonic log data recorded in Los Angeles basin, we estimate the spatial correlation structure of the small-scale fluctuations in P-wave velocities by determining the best-fitting parameters of a von Karman correlation function. We find that Hurst exponents, nu, between 0.0-0.2, vertical correlation lengths, az, of 15-150m, an standard deviation, sigma of about 5% characterize the variability in the borehole data. Usin these parameters, we generated a stochastic model of velocity and density perturbations and combined with leading seismic velocity models to perform a validation exercise for the 2008, Chino Hills, CA using heterogeneous media. We find that models of velocity and density perturbations can have significant effects on the wavefield at frequencies as low as 0.3 Hz, with ensemble median values of various ground motion metrics varying up to +/-50%, at certain stations, compared to those computed solely from the CVM. Finally, we develop a kinematic rupture generator based on dynamic rupture simulations on geometrically complex faults. We analyze 100 dynamic rupture simulations on strike-slip faults ranging from Mw 6.4-7.2. We find that our dynamic simulations follow empirical scaling relationships for inter-plate strike-slip events, and provide source spectra comparable with an o -2 model. Our rupture generator reproduces GMPE medians and intra-event standard deviations spectral accelerations for an ensemble of 10 Hz fully-deterministic ground motion simulations, as compared to NGA West2 GMPE relationships up to 0.2 seconds.

Covariance generation and uncertainty propagation for thermal and fast neutron induced fission yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terranova, Nicholas; Serot, Olivier; Archier, Pascal; De Saint Jean, Cyrille; Sumini, Marco

2017-09-01

Fission product yields (FY) are fundamental nuclear data for several applications, including decay heat, shielding, dosimetry, burn-up calculations. To be safe and sustainable, modern and future nuclear systems require accurate knowledge on reactor parameters, with reduced margins of uncertainty. Present nuclear data libraries for FY do not provide consistent and complete uncertainty information which are limited, in many cases, to only variances. In the present work we propose a methodology to evaluate covariance matrices for thermal and fast neutron induced fission yields. The semi-empirical models adopted to evaluate the JEFF-3.1.1 FY library have been used in the Generalized Least Square Method available in CONRAD (COde for Nuclear Reaction Analysis and Data assimilation) to generate covariance matrices for several fissioning systems such as the thermal fission of U235, Pu239 and Pu241 and the fast fission of U238, Pu239 and Pu240. The impact of such covariances on nuclear applications has been estimated using deterministic and Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation techniques. We studied the effects on decay heat and reactivity loss uncertainty estimation for simplified test case geometries, such as PWR and SFR pin-cells. The impact on existing nuclear reactors, such as the Jules Horowitz Reactor under construction at CEA-Cadarache, has also been considered.

Finite element modelling of woven composite failure modes at the mesoscopic scale: deterministic versus stochastic approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roirand, Q.; Missoum-Benziane, D.; Thionnet, A.; Laiarinandrasana, L.

2017-09-01

Textile composites are composed of 3D complex architecture. To assess the durability of such engineering structures, the failure mechanisms must be highlighted. Examinations of the degradation have been carried out thanks to tomography. The present work addresses a numerical damage model dedicated to the simulation of the crack initiation and propagation at the scale of the warp yarns. For the 3D woven composites under study, loadings in tension and combined tension and bending were considered. Based on an erosion procedure of broken elements, the failure mechanisms have been modelled on 3D periodic cells by finite element calculations. The breakage of one element was determined using a failure criterion at the mesoscopic scale based on the yarn stress at failure. The results were found to be in good agreement with the experimental data for the two kinds of macroscopic loadings. The deterministic approach assumed a homogeneously distributed stress at failure all over the integration points in the meshes of woven composites. A stochastic approach was applied to a simple representative elementary periodic cell. The distribution of the Weibull stress at failure was assigned to the integration points using a Monte Carlo simulation. It was shown that this stochastic approach allowed more realistic failure simulations avoiding the idealised symmetry due to the deterministic modelling. In particular, the stochastic simulations performed have shown several variations of the stress as well as strain at failure and the failure modes of the yarn.

Efficient teleportation between remote single-atom quantum memories.

PubMed

Nölleke, Christian; Neuzner, Andreas; Reiserer, Andreas; Hahn, Carolin; Rempe, Gerhard; Ritter, Stephan

2013-04-05

We demonstrate teleportation of quantum bits between two single atoms in distant laboratories. Using a time-resolved photonic Bell-state measurement, we achieve a teleportation fidelity of (88.0 ± 1.5)%, largely determined by our entanglement fidelity. The low photon collection efficiency in free space is overcome by trapping each atom in an optical cavity. The resulting success probability of 0.1% is almost 5 orders of magnitude larger than in previous experiments with remote material qubits. It is mainly limited by photon propagation and detection losses and can be enhanced with a cavity-based deterministic Bell-state measurement.

Quantum memory and gates using a Λ -type quantum emitter coupled to a chiral waveguide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Tao; Miranowicz, Adam; Hu, Xuedong; Xia, Keyu; Nori, Franco

2018-06-01

By coupling a Λ -type quantum emitter to a chiral waveguide, in which the polarization of a photon is locked to its propagation direction, we propose a controllable photon-emitter interface for quantum networks. We show that this chiral system enables the swap gate and a hybrid-entangling gate between the emitter and a flying single photon. It also allows deterministic storage and retrieval of single-photon states with high fidelities and efficiencies. In short, this chirally coupled emitter-photon interface can be a critical building block toward a large-scale quantum network.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coleman, Justin; Slaughter, Andrew; Veeraraghavan, Swetha

Multi-hazard Analysis for STOchastic time-DOmaiN phenomena (MASTODON) is a finite element application that aims at analyzing the response of 3-D soil-structure systems to natural and man-made hazards such as earthquakes, floods and fire. MASTODON currently focuses on the simulation of seismic events and has the capability to perform extensive ‘source-to-site’ simulations including earthquake fault rupture, nonlinear wave propagation and nonlinear soil-structure interaction (NLSSI) analysis. MASTODON is being developed to be a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment framework that enables analysts to not only perform deterministic analyses, but also easily perform probabilistic or stochastic simulations for the purpose of risk assessment.

Rupture complexity and the supershear transition on rough faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruhat, Lucile; Fang, Zijun; Dunham, Eric M.

2016-01-01

Field investigations suggest that supershear earthquakes occur on geometrically simple, smooth fault segments. In contrast, dynamic rupture simulations show how heterogeneity of stress, strength, and fault geometry can trigger supershear transitions, as well as other complex rupture styles. Here we examine the Fang and Dunham (2013) ensemble of 2-D plane strain dynamic ruptures on fractally rough faults subject to strongly rate weakening friction laws to document the effect of fault roughness and prestress on rupture behavior. Roughness gives rise to extremely diverse rupture styles, such as rupture arrests, secondary slip pulses that rerupture previously slipped fault sections, and supershear transitions. Even when the prestress is below the Burridge-Andrews threshold for supershear on planar faults with uniform stress and strength conditions, supershear transitions are observed. A statistical analysis of the rupture velocity distribution reveals that supershear transients become increasingly likely at higher stress levels and on rougher faults. We examine individual ruptures and identify recurrent patterns for the supershear transition. While some transitions occur on fault segments that are favorably oriented in the background stress field, other transitions happen at the initiation of or after propagation through an unfavorable bend. We conclude that supershear transients are indeed favored by geometric complexity. In contrast, sustained supershear propagation is most common on segments that are locally smoother than average. Because rupture style is so sensitive to both background stress and small-scale details of the fault geometry, it seems unlikely that field maps of fault traces will provide reliable deterministic predictions of supershear propagation on specific fault segments.

Towards quantifying uncertainty in Greenland's contribution to 21st century sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perego, M.; Tezaur, I.; Price, S. F.; Jakeman, J.; Eldred, M.; Salinger, A.; Hoffman, M. J.

2015-12-01

We present recent work towards developing a methodology for quantifying uncertainty in Greenland's 21st century contribution to sea-level rise. While we focus on uncertainties associated with the optimization and calibration of the basal sliding parameter field, the methodology is largely generic and could be applied to other (or multiple) sets of uncertain model parameter fields. The first step in the workflow is the solution of a large-scale, deterministic inverse problem, which minimizes the mismatch between observed and computed surface velocities by optimizing the two-dimensional coefficient field in a linear-friction sliding law. We then expand the deviation in this coefficient field from its estimated "mean" state using a reduced basis of Karhunen-Loeve Expansion (KLE) vectors. A Bayesian calibration is used to determine the optimal coefficient values for this expansion. The prior for the Bayesian calibration can be computed using the Hessian of the deterministic inversion or using an exponential covariance kernel. The posterior distribution is then obtained using Markov Chain Monte Carlo run on an emulator of the forward model. Finally, the uncertainty in the modeled sea-level rise is obtained by performing an ensemble of forward propagation runs. We present and discuss preliminary results obtained using a moderate-resolution model of the Greenland Ice sheet. As demonstrated in previous work, the primary difficulty in applying the complete workflow to realistic, high-resolution problems is that the effective dimension of the parameter space is very large.

A micromechanical interpretation of the temperature dependence of Beremin model parameters for french RPV steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathieu, Jean-Philippe; Inal, Karim; Berveiller, Sophie; Diard, Olivier

2010-11-01

Local approach to brittle fracture for low-alloyed steels is discussed in this paper. A bibliographical introduction intends to highlight general trends and consensual points of the topic and evokes debatable aspects. French RPV steel 16MND5 (equ. ASTM A508 Cl.3), is then used as a model material to study the influence of temperature on brittle fracture. A micromechanical modelling of brittle fracture at the elementary volume scale already used in previous work is then recalled. It involves a multiscale modelling of microstructural plasticity which has been tuned on experimental inter-phase and inter-granular stresses heterogeneities measurements. Fracture probability of the elementary volume can then be computed using a randomly attributed defect size distribution based on realistic carbides repartition. This defect distribution is then deterministically correlated to stress heterogeneities simulated within the microstructure using a weakest-link hypothesis on the elementary volume, which results in a deterministic stress to fracture. Repeating the process allows to compute Weibull parameters on the elementary volume. This tool is then used to investigate the physical mechanisms that could explain the already experimentally observed temperature dependence of Beremin's parameter for 16MND5 steel. It is showed that, assuming that the hypothesis made in this work about cleavage micro-mechanisms are correct, effective equivalent surface energy (i.e. surface energy plus plastically dissipated energy when blunting the crack tip) for propagating a crack has to be temperature dependent to explain Beremin's parameters temperature evolution.

Using cellular automata to simulate forest fire propagation in Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freire, Joana; daCamara, Carlos

2017-04-01

Wildfires in the Mediterranean region have severe damaging effects mainly due to large fire events [1, 2]. When restricting to Portugal, wildfires have burned over 1:4 million ha in the last decade. Considering the increasing tendency in the extent and severity of wildfires [1, 2], the availability of modeling tools of fire episodes is of crucial importance. Two main types of mathematical models are generally available, namely deterministic and stochastic models. Deterministic models attempt a description of fires, fuel and atmosphere as multiphase continua prescribing mass, momentum and energy conservation, which typically leads to systems of coupled PDEs to be solved numerically on a grid. Simpler descriptions, such as FARSITE, neglect the interaction with atmosphere and propagate the fire front using wave techniques. One of the most important stochastic models are Cellular Automata (CA), in which space is discretized into cells, and physical quantities take on a finite set of values at each cell. The cells evolve in discrete time according to a set of transition rules, and the states of the neighboring cells. In the present work, we implement and then improve a simple and fast CA model designed to operationally simulate wildfires in Portugal. The reference CA model chosen [3] has the advantage of having been applied successfully in other Mediterranean ecosystems, namely to historical fires in Greece. The model is defined on a square grid with propagation to 8 nearest and next-nearest neighbors, where each cell is characterized by 4 possible discrete states, corresponding to burning, not-yet burned, fuel-free and completely burned cells, with 4 possible rules of evolution which take into account fuel properties, meteorological conditions, and topography. As a CA model, it offers the possibility to run a very high number of simulations in order to verify and apply the model, and is easily modified by implementing additional variables and different rules for the evolution of the fire spread. We present and discuss the application of the CA model to the "Tavira wildfire" in which approximately 24,800ha were burned. The event took place in summer 2012, between July 18 and 21, and spread in the Tavira and São Brás de Alportel municipalities of Algarve, a province in the southern coast of Portugal. [1] DaCamara et. al. (2014), International Journal of Wildland Fire 23. [2] Amraoui et. al. (2013), Forest Ecology and Management 294. [3] Alexandridis et. al. (2008), Applied Mathematics and Computation 204.

Stochastic simulation for the propagation of high-frequency acoustic waves through a random velocity field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, B.; Darmon, M.; Leymarie, N.; Chatillon, S.; Potel, C.

2012-05-01

In-service inspection of Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactors (SFR) requires the development of non-destructive techniques adapted to the harsh environment conditions and the examination complexity. From past experiences, ultrasonic techniques are considered as suitable candidates. The ultrasonic telemetry is a technique used to constantly insure the safe functioning of reactor inner components by determining their exact position: it consists in measuring the time of flight of the ultrasonic response obtained after propagation of a pulse emitted by a transducer and its interaction with the targets. While in-service the sodium flow creates turbulences that lead to temperature inhomogeneities, which translates into ultrasonic velocity inhomogeneities. These velocity variations could directly impact the accuracy of the target locating by introducing time of flight variations. A stochastic simulation model has been developed to calculate the propagation of ultrasonic waves in such an inhomogeneous medium. Using this approach, the travel time is randomly generated by a stochastic process whose inputs are the statistical moments of travel times known analytically. The stochastic model predicts beam deviations due to velocity inhomogeneities, which are similar to those provided by a determinist method, such as the ray method.

Propagation of neutron-reaction uncertainties through multi-physics models of novel LWR's

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez-Solis, Augusto; Sjöstrand, Henrik; Helgesson, Petter

2017-09-01

The novel design of the renewable boiling water reactor (RBWR) allows a breeding ratio greater than unity and thus, it aims at providing for a self-sustained fuel cycle. The neutron reactions that compose the different microscopic cross-sections and angular distributions are uncertain, so when they are employed in the determination of the spatial distribution of the neutron flux in a nuclear reactor, a methodology should be employed to account for these associated uncertainties. In this work, the Total Monte Carlo (TMC) method is used to propagate the different neutron-reactions (as well as angular distributions) covariances that are part of the TENDL-2014 nuclear data (ND) library. The main objective is to propagate them through coupled neutronic and thermal-hydraulic models in order to assess the uncertainty of important safety parameters related to multi-physics, such as peak cladding temperature along the axial direction of an RBWR fuel assembly. The objective of this study is to quantify the impact that ND covariances of important nuclides such as U-235, U-238, Pu-239 and the thermal scattering of hydrogen in H2O have in the deterministic safety analysis of novel nuclear reactors designs.

Effect of Uncertainty on Deterministic Runway Scheduling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, Gautam; Malik, Waqar; Jung, Yoon C.

2012-01-01

Active runway scheduling involves scheduling departures for takeoffs and arrivals for runway crossing subject to numerous constraints. This paper evaluates the effect of uncertainty on a deterministic runway scheduler. The evaluation is done against a first-come- first-serve scheme. In particular, the sequence from a deterministic scheduler is frozen and the times adjusted to satisfy all separation criteria; this approach is tested against FCFS. The comparison is done for both system performance (throughput and system delay) and predictability, and varying levels of congestion are considered. The modeling of uncertainty is done in two ways: as equal uncertainty in availability at the runway as for all aircraft, and as increasing uncertainty for later aircraft. Results indicate that the deterministic approach consistently performs better than first-come-first-serve in both system performance and predictability.

An adaptive modeling and simulation environment for combined-cycle data reconciliation and degradation estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Tsungpo

Performance engineers face the major challenge in modeling and simulation for the after-market power system due to system degradation and measurement errors. Currently, the majority in power generation industries utilizes the deterministic data matching method to calibrate the model and cascade system degradation, which causes significant calibration uncertainty and also the risk of providing performance guarantees. In this research work, a maximum-likelihood based simultaneous data reconciliation and model calibration (SDRMC) is used for power system modeling and simulation. By replacing the current deterministic data matching with SDRMC one can reduce the calibration uncertainty and mitigate the error propagation to the performance simulation. A modeling and simulation environment for a complex power system with certain degradation has been developed. In this environment multiple data sets are imported when carrying out simultaneous data reconciliation and model calibration. Calibration uncertainties are estimated through error analyses and populated to performance simulation by using principle of error propagation. System degradation is then quantified by performance comparison between the calibrated model and its expected new & clean status. To mitigate smearing effects caused by gross errors, gross error detection (GED) is carried out in two stages. The first stage is a screening stage, in which serious gross errors are eliminated in advance. The GED techniques used in the screening stage are based on multivariate data analysis (MDA), including multivariate data visualization and principal component analysis (PCA). Subtle gross errors are treated at the second stage, in which the serial bias compensation or robust M-estimator is engaged. To achieve a better efficiency in the combined scheme of the least squares based data reconciliation and the GED technique based on hypotheses testing, the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) algorithm is utilized as the optimizer. To reduce the computation time and stabilize the problem solving for a complex power system such as a combined cycle power plant, meta-modeling using the response surface equation (RSE) and system/process decomposition are incorporated with the simultaneous scheme of SDRMC. The goal of this research work is to reduce the calibration uncertainties and, thus, the risks of providing performance guarantees arisen from uncertainties in performance simulation.

Expansion or extinction: deterministic and stochastic two-patch models with Allee effects.

PubMed

Kang, Yun; Lanchier, Nicolas

2011-06-01

We investigate the impact of Allee effect and dispersal on the long-term evolution of a population in a patchy environment. Our main focus is on whether a population already established in one patch either successfully invades an adjacent empty patch or undergoes a global extinction. Our study is based on the combination of analytical and numerical results for both a deterministic two-patch model and a stochastic counterpart. The deterministic model has either two, three or four attractors. The existence of a regime with exactly three attractors only appears when patches have distinct Allee thresholds. In the presence of weak dispersal, the analysis of the deterministic model shows that a high-density and a low-density populations can coexist at equilibrium in nearby patches, whereas the analysis of the stochastic model indicates that this equilibrium is metastable, thus leading after a large random time to either a global expansion or a global extinction. Up to some critical dispersal, increasing the intensity of the interactions leads to an increase of both the basin of attraction of the global extinction and the basin of attraction of the global expansion. Above this threshold, for both the deterministic and the stochastic models, the patches tend to synchronize as the intensity of the dispersal increases. This results in either a global expansion or a global extinction. For the deterministic model, there are only two attractors, while the stochastic model no longer exhibits a metastable behavior. In the presence of strong dispersal, the limiting behavior is entirely determined by the value of the Allee thresholds as the global population size in the deterministic and the stochastic models evolves as dictated by their single-patch counterparts. For all values of the dispersal parameter, Allee effects promote global extinction in terms of an expansion of the basin of attraction of the extinction equilibrium for the deterministic model and an increase of the probability of extinction for the stochastic model.

Weak-noise limit of a piecewise-smooth stochastic differential equation.

PubMed

Chen, Yaming; Baule, Adrian; Touchette, Hugo; Just, Wolfram

2013-11-01

We investigate the validity and accuracy of weak-noise (saddle-point or instanton) approximations for piecewise-smooth stochastic differential equations (SDEs), taking as an illustrative example a piecewise-constant SDE, which serves as a simple model of Brownian motion with solid friction. For this model, we show that the weak-noise approximation of the path integral correctly reproduces the known propagator of the SDE at lowest order in the noise power, as well as the main features of the exact propagator with higher-order corrections, provided the singularity of the path integral associated with the nonsmooth SDE is treated with some heuristics. We also show that, as in the case of smooth SDEs, the deterministic paths of the noiseless system correctly describe the behavior of the nonsmooth SDE in the low-noise limit. Finally, we consider a smooth regularization of the piecewise-constant SDE and study to what extent this regularization can rectify some of the problems encountered when dealing with discontinuous drifts and singularities in SDEs.

Improving synoptic and intraseasonal variability in CFSv2 via stochastic representation of organized convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goswami, B. B.; Khouider, B.; Phani, R.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Majda, A.

2017-01-01

To better represent organized convection in the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), a stochastic multicloud model (SMCM) parameterization is adopted and a 15 year climate run is made. The last 10 years of simulations are analyzed here. While retaining an equally good mean state (if not better) as the parent model, the CFS-SMCM simulation shows significant improvement in the synoptic and intraseasonal variability. The CFS-SMCM provides a better account of convectively coupled equatorial waves and the Madden-Julian oscillation. The CFS-SMCM exhibits improvements in northward and eastward propagation of intraseasonal oscillation of convection including the MJO propagation beyond the maritime continent barrier, which is the Achilles Heel for coarse-resolution global climate models (GCMs). The distribution of precipitation events is better simulated in CFSsmcm and spreads naturally toward high-precipitation events. Deterministic GCMs tend to simulate a narrow distribution with too much drizzling precipitation and too little high-precipitation events.

Atomic Source of Single Photons in the Telecom Band

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dibos, A. M.; Raha, M.; Phenicie, C. M.; Thompson, J. D.

2018-06-01

Single atoms and atomlike defects in solids are ideal quantum light sources and memories for quantum networks. However, most atomic transitions are in the ultraviolet-visible portion of the electromagnetic spectrum, where propagation losses in optical fibers are prohibitively large. Here, we observe for the first time the emission of single photons from a single Er3 + ion in a solid-state host, whose optical transition at 1.5 μ m is in the telecom band, allowing for low-loss propagation in optical fiber. This is enabled by integrating Er3 + ions with silicon nanophotonic structures, which results in an enhancement of the photon emission rate by a factor of more than 650. Dozens of distinct ions can be addressed in a single device, and the splitting of the lines in a magnetic field confirms that the optical transitions are coupled to the electronic spin of the Er3 + ions. These results are a significant step towards long-distance quantum networks and deterministic quantum logic for photons based on a scalable silicon nanophotonics architecture.

Challenges Ahead for Nuclear Facility Site-Specific Seismic Hazard Assessment in France: The Alternative Energies and the Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) Vision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berge-Thierry, C.; Hollender, F.; Guyonnet-Benaize, C.; Baumont, D.; Ameri, G.; Bollinger, L.

2017-09-01

Seismic analysis in the context of nuclear safety in France is currently guided by a pure deterministic approach based on Basic Safety Rule ( Règle Fondamentale de Sûreté) RFS 2001-01 for seismic hazard assessment, and on the ASN/2/01 Guide that provides design rules for nuclear civil engineering structures. After the 2011 Tohohu earthquake, nuclear operators worldwide were asked to estimate the ability of their facilities to sustain extreme seismic loads. The French licensees then defined the `hard core seismic levels', which are higher than those considered for design or re-assessment of the safety of a facility. These were initially established on a deterministic basis, and they have been finally justified through state-of-the-art probabilistic seismic hazard assessments. The appreciation and propagation of uncertainties when assessing seismic hazard in France have changed considerably over the past 15 years. This evolution provided the motivation for the present article, the objectives of which are threefold: (1) to provide a description of the current practices in France to assess seismic hazard in terms of nuclear safety; (2) to discuss and highlight the sources of uncertainties and their treatment; and (3) to use a specific case study to illustrate how extended source modeling can help to constrain the key assumptions or parameters that impact upon seismic hazard assessment. This article discusses in particular seismic source characterization, strong ground motion prediction, and maximal magnitude constraints, according to the practice of the French Atomic Energy Commission. Due to increases in strong motion databases in terms of the number and quality of the records in their metadata and the uncertainty characterization, several recently published empirical ground motion prediction models are eligible for seismic hazard assessment in France. We show that propagation of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties is feasible in a deterministic approach, as in a probabilistic way. Assessment of seismic hazard in France in the framework of the safety of nuclear facilities should consider these recent advances. In this sense, the opening of discussions with all of the stakeholders in France to update the reference documents (i.e., RFS 2001-01; ASN/2/01 Guide) appears appropriate in the short term.

Spectral Density of Laser Beam Scintillation in Wind Turbulence. Part 1; Theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balakrishnan, A. V.

1997-01-01

The temporal spectral density of the log-amplitude scintillation of a laser beam wave due to a spatially dependent vector-valued crosswind (deterministic as well as random) is evaluated. The path weighting functions for normalized spectral moments are derived, and offer a potential new technique for estimating the wind velocity profile. The Tatarskii-Klyatskin stochastic propagation equation for the Markov turbulence model is used with the solution approximated by the Rytov method. The Taylor 'frozen-in' hypothesis is assumed for the dependence of the refractive index on the wind velocity, and the Kolmogorov spectral density is used for the refractive index field.

Effect of Discontinuities and Uncertainties on the Response and Failure of Composite Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, Ahmed K.; Perry, Ferman W.; Poteat, Marcia M. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The overall goal of this research was to assess the effect of discontinuities and uncertainties on the nonlinear response and failure of composite structures subjected to combined mechanical and thermal loads. The four key elements of the study were: (1) development of simple and efficient procedures for the accurate determination of transverse shear and transverse normal stresses in structural sandwiches as well as in unstiffened and stiffened composite panels and shells; (2) study the effects of transverse stresses on the response, damage initiation and propagation in composite and sandwich structures; (3) use of hierarchical sensitivity coefficients to identify the major parameters that affect the response and damage in each of the different levels in the hierarchy (micro-mechanical, layer, panel, subcomponent and component levels); and (4) application of fuzzy set techniques to identify the range and variation of possible responses. The computational models developed were used in conjunction with experiments, to understand the physical phenomena associated with the nonlinear response and failure of composite and sandwich structures. A toolkit was developed for use in conjunction with deterministic analysis programs to help the designer in assessing the effect of uncertainties in the different computational model parameters on the variability of the response quantities.

Studying the effect of cracks on the ultrasonic wave propagation in a two dimensional gearbox finite element model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozevin, Didem; Fazel, Hossein; Cox, Justin; Hardman, William; Kessler, Seth S.; Timmons, Alan

2014-04-01

Gearbox components of aerospace structures are typically made of brittle materials with high fracture toughness, but susceptible to fatigue failure due to continuous cyclic loading. Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) methods are used to monitor the crack growth in gearbox components. Damage detection methodologies developed in laboratory-scale experiments may not represent the actual gearbox structural configuration, and are usually not applicable to real application as the vibration and wave properties depend on the material, structural layers and thicknesses. Also, the sensor types and locations are key factors for frequency content of ultrasonic waves, which are essential features for pattern recognition algorithm development in noisy environments. Therefore, a deterministic damage detection methodology that considers all the variables influencing the waveform signature should be considered in the preliminary computation before any experimental test matrix. In order to achieve this goal, we developed two dimensional finite element models of a gearbox cross section from front view and shaft section. The cross section model consists of steel revolving teeth, a thin layer of oil, and retention plate. An ultrasonic wave up to 1 MHz frequency is generated, and waveform histories along the gearbox are recorded. The received waveforms under pristine and cracked conditions are compared in order to analyze the crack influence on the wave propagation in gearbox, which can be utilized by both active and passive SHM methods.

Analysis of radio wave propagation for ISM 2.4 GHz Wireless Sensor Networks in inhomogeneous vegetation environments.

PubMed

Azpilicueta, Leire; López-Iturri, Peio; Aguirre, Erik; Mateo, Ignacio; Astrain, José Javier; Villadangos, Jesús; Falcone, Francisco

2014-12-10

The use of wireless networks has experienced exponential growth due to the improvements in terms of battery life and low consumption of the devices. However, it is compulsory to conduct previous radio propagation analysis when deploying a wireless sensor network. These studies are necessary to perform an estimation of the range coverage, in order to optimize the distance between devices in an actual network deployment. In this work, the radio channel characterization for ISM 2.4 GHz Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) in an inhomogeneous vegetation environment has been analyzed. This analysis allows designing environment monitoring tools based on ZigBee and WiFi where WSN and smartphones cooperate, providing rich and customized monitoring information to users in a friendly manner. The impact of topology as well as morphology of the environment is assessed by means of an in-house developed 3D Ray Launching code, to emulate the realistic operation in the framework of the scenario. Experimental results gathered from a measurement campaign conducted by deploying a ZigBee Wireless Sensor Network, are analyzed and compared with simulations in this paper. The scenario where this network is intended to operate is a combination of buildings and diverse vegetation species. To gain insight in the effects of radio propagation, a simplified vegetation model has been developed, considering the material parameters and simplified geometry embedded in the simulation scenario. An initial location-based application has been implemented in a real scenario, to test the functionality within a context aware scenario. The use of deterministic tools can aid to know the impact of the topological influence in the deployment of the optimal Wireless Sensor Network in terms of capacity, coverage and energy consumption, making the use of these systems attractive for multiple applications in inhomogeneous vegetation environments.

Diffusion-controlled interface kinetics-inclusive system-theoretic propagation models for molecular communication systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chude-Okonkwo, Uche A. K.; Malekian, Reza; Maharaj, B. T.

2015-12-01

Inspired by biological systems, molecular communication has been proposed as a new communication paradigm that uses biochemical signals to transfer information from one nano device to another over a short distance. The biochemical nature of the information transfer process implies that for molecular communication purposes, the development of molecular channel models should take into consideration diffusion phenomenon as well as the physical/biochemical kinetic possibilities of the process. The physical and biochemical kinetics arise at the interfaces between the diffusion channel and the transmitter/receiver units. These interfaces are herein termed molecular antennas. In this paper, we present the deterministic propagation model of the molecular communication between an immobilized nanotransmitter and nanoreceiver, where the emission and reception kinetics are taken into consideration. Specifically, we derived closed-form system-theoretic models and expressions for configurations that represent different communication systems based on the type of molecular antennas used. The antennas considered are the nanopores at the transmitter and the surface receptor proteins/enzymes at the receiver. The developed models are simulated to show the influence of parameters such as the receiver radius, surface receptor protein/enzyme concentration, and various reaction rate constants. Results show that the effective receiver surface area and the rate constants are important to the system's output performance. Assuming high rate of catalysis, the analysis of the frequency behavior of the developed propagation channels in the form of transfer functions shows significant difference introduce by the inclusion of the molecular antennas into the diffusion-only model. It is also shown that for t > > 0 and with the information molecules' concentration greater than the Michaelis-Menten kinetic constant of the systems, the inclusion of surface receptors proteins and enzymes in the models makes the system act like a band-stop filter over an infinite frequency range.

An Indoor Pedestrian Positioning Method Using HMM with a Fuzzy Pattern Recognition Algorithm in a WLAN Fingerprint System

PubMed Central

Ni, Yepeng; Liu, Jianbo; Liu, Shan; Bai, Yaxin

2016-01-01

With the rapid development of smartphones and wireless networks, indoor location-based services have become more and more prevalent. Due to the sophisticated propagation of radio signals, the Received Signal Strength Indicator (RSSI) shows a significant variation during pedestrian walking, which introduces critical errors in deterministic indoor positioning. To solve this problem, we present a novel method to improve the indoor pedestrian positioning accuracy by embedding a fuzzy pattern recognition algorithm into a Hidden Markov Model. The fuzzy pattern recognition algorithm follows the rule that the RSSI fading has a positive correlation to the distance between the measuring point and the AP location even during a dynamic positioning measurement. Through this algorithm, we use the RSSI variation trend to replace the specific RSSI value to achieve a fuzzy positioning. The transition probability of the Hidden Markov Model is trained by the fuzzy pattern recognition algorithm with pedestrian trajectories. Using the Viterbi algorithm with the trained model, we can obtain a set of hidden location states. In our experiments, we demonstrate that, compared with the deterministic pattern matching algorithm, our method can greatly improve the positioning accuracy and shows robust environmental adaptability. PMID:27618053

Ionospheric effects on synthetic aperture radar at VHF

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fitzgerald, T.J.

1997-02-01

Synthetic aperture radars (SAR) operated from airplanes have been used at VHF because of their enhanced foliage and ground penetration compared to radars operated at UHF. A satellite-borne VHF SAR would have considerable utility but in order to operate with high resolution it would have to use both a large relative bandwidth and a large aperture. The presence of the ionosphere in the propagation path of the radar will cause a deterioration of the imaging because of dispersion over the bandwidth and group path changes in the imaged area over the collection aperture. In this paper we present calculations ofmore » the effects of a deterministic ionosphere on SAR imaging for a radar operated with a 100 MHz bandwidth centered at 250 MHz and over an angular aperture of 23{degrees}. The ionosphere induces a point spread function with an approximate half-width of 150 m in the slant-range direction and of 25 m in the cross-range direction compared to the nominal resolution of 1.5 m in both directions.« less

Validation of a multi-layer Green's function code for ion beam transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, Steven; Tweed, John; Tripathi, Ram; Badavi, Francis F.; Miller, Jack; Zeitlin, Cary; Heilbronn, Lawrence

To meet the challenge of future deep space programs, an accurate and efficient engineering code for analyzing the shielding requirements against high-energy galactic heavy radiations is needed. In consequence, a new version of the HZETRN code capable of simulating high charge and energy (HZE) ions with either laboratory or space boundary conditions is currently under development. The new code, GRNTRN, is based on a Green's function approach to the solution of Boltzmann's transport equation and like its predecessor is deterministic in nature. The computational model consists of the lowest order asymptotic approximation followed by a Neumann series expansion with non-perturbative corrections. The physical description includes energy loss with straggling, nuclear attenuation, nuclear fragmentation with energy dispersion and down shift. Code validation in the laboratory environment is addressed by showing that GRNTRN accurately predicts energy loss spectra as measured by solid-state detectors in ion beam experiments with multi-layer targets. In order to validate the code with space boundary conditions, measured particle fluences are propagated through several thicknesses of shielding using both GRNTRN and the current version of HZETRN. The excellent agreement obtained indicates that GRNTRN accurately models the propagation of HZE ions in the space environment as well as in laboratory settings and also provides verification of the HZETRN propagator.

Pro Free Will Priming Enhances “Risk-Taking” Behavior in the Iowa Gambling Task, but Not in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task: Two Independent Priming Studies

PubMed Central

Schrag, Yann; Tremea, Alessandro; Lagger, Cyril; Ohana, Noé; Mohr, Christine

2016-01-01

Studies indicated that people behave less responsibly after exposure to information containing deterministic statements as compared to free will statements or neutral statements. Thus, deterministic primes should lead to enhanced risk-taking behavior. We tested this prediction in two studies with healthy participants. In experiment 1, we tested 144 students (24 men) in the laboratory using the Iowa Gambling Task. In experiment 2, we tested 274 participants (104 men) online using the Balloon Analogue Risk Task. In the Iowa Gambling Task, the free will priming condition resulted in more risky decisions than both the deterministic and neutral priming conditions. We observed no priming effects on risk-taking behavior in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task. To explain these unpredicted findings, we consider the somatic marker hypothesis, a gain frequency approach as well as attention to gains and / or inattention to losses. In addition, we highlight the necessity to consider both pro free will and deterministic priming conditions in future studies. Importantly, our and previous results indicate that the effects of pro free will and deterministic priming do not oppose each other on a frequently assumed continuum. PMID:27018854

Pro Free Will Priming Enhances "Risk-Taking" Behavior in the Iowa Gambling Task, but Not in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task: Two Independent Priming Studies.

PubMed

Schrag, Yann; Tremea, Alessandro; Lagger, Cyril; Ohana, Noé; Mohr, Christine

2016-01-01

Studies indicated that people behave less responsibly after exposure to information containing deterministic statements as compared to free will statements or neutral statements. Thus, deterministic primes should lead to enhanced risk-taking behavior. We tested this prediction in two studies with healthy participants. In experiment 1, we tested 144 students (24 men) in the laboratory using the Iowa Gambling Task. In experiment 2, we tested 274 participants (104 men) online using the Balloon Analogue Risk Task. In the Iowa Gambling Task, the free will priming condition resulted in more risky decisions than both the deterministic and neutral priming conditions. We observed no priming effects on risk-taking behavior in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task. To explain these unpredicted findings, we consider the somatic marker hypothesis, a gain frequency approach as well as attention to gains and / or inattention to losses. In addition, we highlight the necessity to consider both pro free will and deterministic priming conditions in future studies. Importantly, our and previous results indicate that the effects of pro free will and deterministic priming do not oppose each other on a frequently assumed continuum.

Non-intrusive uncertainty quantification of computational fluid dynamics simulations: notes on the accuracy and efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimoń, Małgorzata; Sawko, Robert; Emerson, David; Thompson, Christopher

2017-11-01

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is increasingly becoming an indispensable tool for assessing the reliability of computational modelling. Efficient handling of stochastic inputs, such as boundary conditions, physical properties or geometry, increases the utility of model results significantly. We discuss the application of non-intrusive generalised polynomial chaos techniques in the context of fluid engineering simulations. Deterministic and Monte Carlo integration rules are applied to a set of problems, including ordinary differential equations and the computation of aerodynamic parameters subject to random perturbations. In particular, we analyse acoustic wave propagation in a heterogeneous medium to study the effects of mesh resolution, transients, number and variability of stochastic inputs. We consider variants of multi-level Monte Carlo and perform a novel comparison of the methods with respect to numerical and parametric errors, as well as computational cost. The results provide a comprehensive view of the necessary steps in UQ analysis and demonstrate some key features of stochastic fluid flow systems.

Ultrafast magnetization switching by spin-orbit torques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garello, Kevin, E-mail: kevin.garello@mat.ethz.ch; Avci, Can Onur; Baumgartner, Manuel

2014-11-24

Spin-orbit torques induced by spin Hall and interfacial effects in heavy metal/ferromagnetic bilayers allow for a switching geometry based on in-plane current injection. Using this geometry, we demonstrate deterministic magnetization reversal by current pulses ranging from 180 ps to ms in Pt/Co/AlO{sub x} dots with lateral dimensions of 90 nm. We characterize the switching probability and critical current I{sub c} as a function of pulse length, amplitude, and external field. Our data evidence two distinct regimes: a short-time intrinsic regime, where I{sub c} scales linearly with the inverse of the pulse length, and a long-time thermally assisted regime, where I{sub c} variesmore » weakly. Both regimes are consistent with magnetization reversal proceeding by nucleation and fast propagation of domains. We find that I{sub c} is a factor 3–4 smaller compared to a single domain model and that the incubation time is negligibly small, which is a hallmark feature of spin-orbit torques.« less

Estimating the epidemic threshold on networks by deterministic connections

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Kezan, E-mail: lkzzr@sohu.com; Zhu, Guanghu; Fu, Xinchu

2014-12-15

For many epidemic networks some connections between nodes are treated as deterministic, while the remainder are random and have different connection probabilities. By applying spectral analysis to several constructed models, we find that one can estimate the epidemic thresholds of these networks by investigating information from only the deterministic connections. Nonetheless, in these models, generic nonuniform stochastic connections and heterogeneous community structure are also considered. The estimation of epidemic thresholds is achieved via inequalities with upper and lower bounds, which are found to be in very good agreement with numerical simulations. Since these deterministic connections are easier to detect thanmore » those stochastic connections, this work provides a feasible and effective method to estimate the epidemic thresholds in real epidemic networks.« less

Comparison of two optimization algorithms for fuzzy finite element model updating for damage detection in a wind turbine blade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turnbull, Heather; Omenzetter, Piotr

2018-03-01

vDifficulties associated with current health monitoring and inspection practices combined with harsh, often remote, operational environments of wind turbines highlight the requirement for a non-destructive evaluation system capable of remotely monitoring the current structural state of turbine blades. This research adopted a physics based structural health monitoring methodology through calibration of a finite element model using inverse techniques. A 2.36m blade from a 5kW turbine was used as an experimental specimen, with operational modal analysis techniques utilised to realize the modal properties of the system. Modelling the experimental responses as fuzzy numbers using the sub-level technique, uncertainty in the response parameters was propagated back through the model and into the updating parameters. Initially, experimental responses of the blade were obtained, with a numerical model of the blade created and updated. Deterministic updating was carried out through formulation and minimisation of a deterministic objective function using both firefly algorithm and virus optimisation algorithm. Uncertainty in experimental responses were modelled using triangular membership functions, allowing membership functions of updating parameters (Young's modulus and shear modulus) to be obtained. Firefly algorithm and virus optimisation algorithm were again utilised, however, this time in the solution of fuzzy objective functions. This enabled uncertainty associated with updating parameters to be quantified. Varying damage location and severity was simulated experimentally through addition of small masses to the structure intended to cause a structural alteration. A damaged model was created, modelling four variable magnitude nonstructural masses at predefined points and updated to provide a deterministic damage prediction and information in relation to the parameters uncertainty via fuzzy updating.

The HelCat Helicon-Cathode Device at UNM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cyrin, Bricette; Watts, Christopher; Gilmore, Mark; Hayes, Tiffany; Kelly, Ralph; Leach, Christopher; Lynn, Alan; Sanchez, Andrew; Xie, Shuangwei; Yan, Lincan; Zhang, Yue

2009-11-01

The HelCat helicon-cathode device is a dual-source linear plasma device for investigating a wide variety of basic plasma phenomena. HelCat is 4 m long, 50 cm diameter, with axial magnetic field < 2.2 kG. An RF helicon source is at one end of the device, and a thermionic BaO-Ni cathode is at the other end. Current research topics include the relationship of turbulence to sheared plasma flows, deterministic chaos, Alfv'en wave propagation and damping, and merging plasma interaction. We present an overview of the ongoing research, and focus on recent results of merging helicon and cathode plasma. We will present some really cool movies.

Sampled-Data Consensus of Linear Multi-agent Systems With Packet Losses.

PubMed

Zhang, Wenbing; Tang, Yang; Huang, Tingwen; Kurths, Jurgen

In this paper, the consensus problem is studied for a class of multi-agent systems with sampled data and packet losses, where random and deterministic packet losses are considered, respectively. For random packet losses, a Bernoulli-distributed white sequence is used to describe packet dropouts among agents in a stochastic way. For deterministic packet losses, a switched system with stable and unstable subsystems is employed to model packet dropouts in a deterministic way. The purpose of this paper is to derive consensus criteria, such that linear multi-agent systems with sampled-data and packet losses can reach consensus. By means of the Lyapunov function approach and the decomposition method, the design problem of a distributed controller is solved in terms of convex optimization. The interplay among the allowable bound of the sampling interval, the probability of random packet losses, and the rate of deterministic packet losses are explicitly derived to characterize consensus conditions. The obtained criteria are closely related to the maximum eigenvalue of the Laplacian matrix versus the second minimum eigenvalue of the Laplacian matrix, which reveals the intrinsic effect of communication topologies on consensus performance. Finally, simulations are given to show the effectiveness of the proposed results.In this paper, the consensus problem is studied for a class of multi-agent systems with sampled data and packet losses, where random and deterministic packet losses are considered, respectively. For random packet losses, a Bernoulli-distributed white sequence is used to describe packet dropouts among agents in a stochastic way. For deterministic packet losses, a switched system with stable and unstable subsystems is employed to model packet dropouts in a deterministic way. The purpose of this paper is to derive consensus criteria, such that linear multi-agent systems with sampled-data and packet losses can reach consensus. By means of the Lyapunov function approach and the decomposition method, the design problem of a distributed controller is solved in terms of convex optimization. The interplay among the allowable bound of the sampling interval, the probability of random packet losses, and the rate of deterministic packet losses are explicitly derived to characterize consensus conditions. The obtained criteria are closely related to the maximum eigenvalue of the Laplacian matrix versus the second minimum eigenvalue of the Laplacian matrix, which reveals the intrinsic effect of communication topologies on consensus performance. Finally, simulations are given to show the effectiveness of the proposed results.

The Application of Deterministic Spectral Domain Method to the Analysis of Planar Circuit Discontinuities on Open Substrates

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-08-01

the spectral domain is extended to include the effects of two-dimensional, two-component current flow in planar transmission line discontinuities 6n...PROFESSOR: Tatsuo Itoh A deterministic formulation of the method of moments carried out in the spectral domain is extended to include the effects of...two-dimensional, two- component current flow in planar transmission line discontinuities on open substrates. The method includes the effects of space

Paracousti-UQ: A Stochastic 3-D Acoustic Wave Propagation Algorithm.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Preston, Leiph

Acoustic full waveform algorithms, such as Paracousti, provide deterministic solutions in complex, 3-D variable environments. In reality, environmental and source characteristics are often only known in a statistical sense. Thus, to fully characterize the expected sound levels within an environment, this uncertainty in environmental and source factors should be incorporated into the acoustic simulations. Performing Monte Carlo (MC) simulations is one method of assessing this uncertainty, but it can quickly become computationally intractable for realistic problems. An alternative method, using the technique of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDE), allows computation of the statistical properties of output signals at a fractionmore » of the computational cost of MC. Paracousti-UQ solves the SPDE system of 3-D acoustic wave propagation equations and provides estimates of the uncertainty of the output simulated wave field (e.g., amplitudes, waveforms) based on estimated probability distributions of the input medium and source parameters. This report describes the derivation of the stochastic partial differential equations, their implementation, and comparison of Paracousti-UQ results with MC simulations using simple models.« less

Intensity moments by path integral techniques for wave propagation through random media, with application to sound in the ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bernstein, D. R.; Dashen, R.; Flatte, S. M.

1983-01-01

A theory is developed which describes intensity moments for wave propagation through random media. It is shown using the path integral technique that these moments are significantly different from those of a Rayleigh distribution in certain asymptotic regions. The path integral approach is extended to inhomogeneous, anisotropic media possessing a strong deterministic velocity profile. The behavior of the corrections to Rayleigh statistics is examined, and it is shown that the important characteristics can be attributed to a local micropath focusing function. The correction factor gamma is a micropath focusing parameter defined in terms of medium fluctuations. The value of gamma is calculated for three ocean acoustic experiments, using internal waves as the medium fluctuations. It is found that all three experiments show excellent agreement as to the relative values of the intensity moments. The full curved ray is found to yield results that are significantly different from the straight-line approximations. It is noted that these methods are applicable to a variety of experimental situations, including atmospheric optics and radio waves through plasmas.

Deterministic methods for multi-control fuel loading optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Fariz B. Abdul

We have developed a multi-control fuel loading optimization code for pressurized water reactors based on deterministic methods. The objective is to flatten the fuel burnup profile, which maximizes overall energy production. The optimal control problem is formulated using the method of Lagrange multipliers and the direct adjoining approach for treatment of the inequality power peaking constraint. The optimality conditions are derived for a multi-dimensional multi-group optimal control problem via calculus of variations. Due to the Hamiltonian having a linear control, our optimal control problem is solved using the gradient method to minimize the Hamiltonian and a Newton step formulation to obtain the optimal control. We are able to satisfy the power peaking constraint during depletion with the control at beginning of cycle (BOC) by building the proper burnup path forward in time and utilizing the adjoint burnup to propagate the information back to the BOC. Our test results show that we are able to achieve our objective and satisfy the power peaking constraint during depletion using either the fissile enrichment or burnable poison as the control. Our fuel loading designs show an increase of 7.8 equivalent full power days (EFPDs) in cycle length compared with 517.4 EFPDs for the AP600 first cycle.

Modelling uncertainty in incompressible flow simulation using Galerkin based generalized ANOVA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Souvik; Chowdhury, Rajib

2016-11-01

This paper presents a new algorithm, referred to here as Galerkin based generalized analysis of variance decomposition (GG-ANOVA) for modelling input uncertainties and its propagation in incompressible fluid flow. The proposed approach utilizes ANOVA to represent the unknown stochastic response. Further, the unknown component functions of ANOVA are represented using the generalized polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). The resulting functional form obtained by coupling the ANOVA and PCE is substituted into the stochastic Navier-Stokes equation (NSE) and Galerkin projection is employed to decompose it into a set of coupled deterministic 'Navier-Stokes alike' equations. Temporal discretization of the set of coupled deterministic equations is performed by employing Adams-Bashforth scheme for convective term and Crank-Nicolson scheme for diffusion term. Spatial discretization is performed by employing finite difference scheme. Implementation of the proposed approach has been illustrated by two examples. In the first example, a stochastic ordinary differential equation has been considered. This example illustrates the performance of proposed approach with change in nature of random variable. Furthermore, convergence characteristics of GG-ANOVA has also been demonstrated. The second example investigates flow through a micro channel. Two case studies, namely the stochastic Kelvin-Helmholtz instability and stochastic vortex dipole, have been investigated. For all the problems results obtained using GG-ANOVA are in excellent agreement with benchmark solutions.

3D Dynamic Rupture Simulations along Dipping Faults, with a focus on the Wasatch Fault Zone, Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Withers, K.; Moschetti, M. P.

2017-12-01

We study dynamic rupture and ground motion from dip-slip faults in regions that have high-seismic hazard, such as the Wasatch fault zone, Utah. Previous numerical simulations have modeled deterministic ground motion along segments of this fault in the heavily populated regions near Salt Lake City but were restricted to low frequencies ( 1 Hz). We seek to better understand the rupture process and assess broadband ground motions and variability from the Wasatch Fault Zone by extending deterministic ground motion prediction to higher frequencies (up to 5 Hz). We perform simulations along a dipping normal fault (40 x 20 km along strike and width, respectively) with characteristics derived from geologic observations to generate a suite of ruptures > Mw 6.5. This approach utilizes dynamic simulations (fully physics-based models, where the initial stress drop and friction law are imposed) using a summation by parts (SBP) method. The simulations include rough-fault topography following a self-similar fractal distribution (over length scales from 100 m to the size of the fault) in addition to off-fault plasticity. Energy losses from heat and other mechanisms, modeled as anelastic attenuation, are also included, as well as free-surface topography, which can significantly affect ground motion patterns. We compare the effect of material structure and both rate and state and slip-weakening friction laws have on rupture propagation. The simulations show reduced slip and moment release in the near surface with the inclusion of plasticity, better agreeing with observations of shallow slip deficit. Long-wavelength fault geometry imparts a non-uniform stress distribution along both dip and strike, influencing the preferred rupture direction and hypocenter location, potentially important for seismic hazard estimation.

Probabilistic evaluation of uncertainties and risks in aerospace components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shah, A. R.; Shiao, M. C.; Nagpal, V. K.; Chamis, C. C.

1992-01-01

This paper summarizes a methodology developed at NASA Lewis Research Center which computationally simulates the structural, material, and load uncertainties associated with Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) components. The methodology was applied to evaluate the scatter in static, buckling, dynamic, fatigue, and damage behavior of the SSME turbo pump blade. Also calculated are the probability densities of typical critical blade responses, such as effective stress, natural frequency, damage initiation, most probable damage path, etc. Risk assessments were performed for different failure modes, and the effect of material degradation on the fatigue and damage behaviors of a blade were calculated using a multi-factor interaction equation. Failure probabilities for different fatigue cycles were computed and the uncertainties associated with damage initiation and damage propagation due to different load cycle were quantified. Evaluations on the effects of mistuned blades on a rotor were made; uncertainties in the excitation frequency were found to significantly amplify the blade responses of a mistuned rotor. The effects of the number of blades on a rotor were studied. The autocorrelation function of displacements and the probability density function of the first passage time for deterministic and random barriers for structures subjected to random processes also were computed. A brief discussion was included on the future direction of probabilistic structural analysis.

Stochasticity and determinism in models of hematopoiesis.

PubMed

Kimmel, Marek

2014-01-01

This chapter represents a novel view of modeling in hematopoiesis, synthesizing both deterministic and stochastic approaches. Whereas the stochastic models work in situations where chance dominates, for example when the number of cells is small, or under random mutations, the deterministic models are more important for large-scale, normal hematopoiesis. New types of models are on the horizon. These models attempt to account for distributed environments such as hematopoietic niches and their impact on dynamics. Mixed effects of such structures and chance events are largely unknown and constitute both a challenge and promise for modeling. Our discussion is presented under the separate headings of deterministic and stochastic modeling; however, the connections between both are frequently mentioned. Four case studies are included to elucidate important examples. We also include a primer of deterministic and stochastic dynamics for the reader's use.

CPT-based probabilistic and deterministic assessment of in situ seismic soil liquefaction potential

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moss, R.E.S.; Seed, R.B.; Kayen, R.E.; Stewart, J.P.; Der Kiureghian, A.; Cetin, K.O.

2006-01-01

This paper presents a complete methodology for both probabilistic and deterministic assessment of seismic soil liquefaction triggering potential based on the cone penetration test (CPT). A comprehensive worldwide set of CPT-based liquefaction field case histories were compiled and back analyzed, and the data then used to develop probabilistic triggering correlations. Issues investigated in this study include improved normalization of CPT resistance measurements for the influence of effective overburden stress, and adjustment to CPT tip resistance for the potential influence of "thin" liquefiable layers. The effects of soil type and soil character (i.e., "fines" adjustment) for the new correlations are based on a combination of CPT tip and sleeve resistance. To quantify probability for performancebased engineering applications, Bayesian "regression" methods were used, and the uncertainties of all variables comprising both the seismic demand and the liquefaction resistance were estimated and included in the analysis. The resulting correlations were developed using a Bayesian framework and are presented in both probabilistic and deterministic formats. The results are compared to previous probabilistic and deterministic correlations. ?? 2006 ASCE.

Tag-mediated cooperation with non-deterministic genotype-phenotype mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hong; Chen, Shu

2016-01-01

Tag-mediated cooperation provides a helpful framework for resolving evolutionary social dilemmas. However, most of the previous studies have not taken into account genotype-phenotype distinction in tags, which may play an important role in the process of evolution. To take this into consideration, we introduce non-deterministic genotype-phenotype mapping into a tag-based model with spatial prisoner's dilemma. By our definition, the similarity between genotypic tags does not directly imply the similarity between phenotypic tags. We find that the non-deterministic mapping from genotypic tag to phenotypic tag has non-trivial effects on tag-mediated cooperation. Although we observe that high levels of cooperation can be established under a wide variety of conditions especially when the decisiveness is moderate, the uncertainty in the determination of phenotypic tags may have a detrimental effect on the tag mechanism by disturbing the homophilic interaction structure which can explain the promotion of cooperation in tag systems. Furthermore, the non-deterministic mapping may undermine the robustness of the tag mechanism with respect to various factors such as the structure of the tag space and the tag flexibility. This observation warns us about the danger of applying the classical tag-based models to the analysis of empirical phenomena if genotype-phenotype distinction is significant in real world. Non-deterministic genotype-phenotype mapping thus provides a new perspective to the understanding of tag-mediated cooperation.

Controllability of Deterministic Networks with the Identical Degree Sequence

PubMed Central

Ma, Xiujuan; Zhao, Haixing; Wang, Binghong

2015-01-01

Controlling complex network is an essential problem in network science and engineering. Recent advances indicate that the controllability of complex network is dependent on the network's topology. Liu and Barabási, et.al speculated that the degree distribution was one of the most important factors affecting controllability for arbitrary complex directed network with random link weights. In this paper, we analysed the effect of degree distribution to the controllability for the deterministic networks with unweighted and undirected. We introduce a class of deterministic networks with identical degree sequence, called (x,y)-flower. We analysed controllability of the two deterministic networks ((1, 3)-flower and (2, 2)-flower) by exact controllability theory in detail and give accurate results of the minimum number of driver nodes for the two networks. In simulation, we compare the controllability of (x,y)-flower networks. Our results show that the family of (x,y)-flower networks have the same degree sequence, but their controllability is totally different. So the degree distribution itself is not sufficient to characterize the controllability of deterministic networks with unweighted and undirected. PMID:26020920

Inverse kinematic problem for a random gradient medium in geometric optics approximation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petersen, N. V.

1990-03-01

Scattering at random inhomogeneities in a gradient medium results in systematic deviations of the rays and travel times of refracted body waves from those corresponding to the deterministic velocity component. The character of the difference depends on the parameters of the deterministic and random velocity component. However, at great distances to the source, independently of the velocity parameters (weakly or strongly inhomogeneous medium), the most probable depth of the ray turning point is smaller than that corresponding to the deterministic velocity component, the most probable travel times also being lower. The relative uncertainty in the deterministic velocity component, derived from the mean travel times using methods developed for laterally homogeneous media (for instance, the Herglotz-Wiechert method), is systematic in character, but does not exceed the contrast of velocity inhomogeneities by magnitude. The gradient of the deterministic velocity component has a significant effect on the travel-time fluctuations. The variance at great distances to the source is mainly controlled by shallow inhomogeneities. The travel-time flucutations are studied only for weakly inhomogeneous media.

Incorporating uncertainty into mercury-offset decisions with a probabilistic network for National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permit holders: an interim report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Alexander

2004-01-01

This interim report describes an alternative approach for evaluating the efficacy of using mercury (Hg) offsets to improve water quality. Hg-offset programs may allow dischargers facing higher-pollution control costs to meet their regulatory obligations by making more cost effective pollutant-reduction decisions. Efficient Hg management requires methods to translate that science and economics into a regulatory decision framework. This report documents the work in progress by the U.S. Geological Surveys Western Geographic Science Center in collaboration with Stanford University toward developing this decision framework to help managers, regulators, and other stakeholders decide whether offsets can cost effectively meet the Hg total maximum daily load (TMDL) requirements in the Sacramento River watershed. Two key approaches being considered are: (1) a probabilistic approach that explicitly incorporates scientific uncertainty, cost information, and value judgments; and (2) a quantitative approach that captures uncertainty in testing the feasibility of Hg offsets. Current fate and transport-process models commonly attempt to predict chemical transformations and transport pathways deterministically. However, the physical, chemical, and biologic processes controlling the fate and transport of Hg in aquatic environments are complex and poorly understood. Deterministic models of Hg environmental behavior contain large uncertainties, reflecting this lack of understanding. The uncertainty in these underlying physical processes may produce similarly large uncertainties in the decisionmaking process. However, decisions about control strategies are still being made despite the large uncertainties in current Hg loadings, the relations between total Hg (HgT) loading and methylmercury (MeHg) formation, and the relations between control efforts and Hg content in fish. The research presented here focuses on an alternative analytical approach to the current use of safety factors and deterministic methods for Hg TMDL decision support, one that is fully compatible with an adaptive management approach. This alternative approach uses empirical data and informed judgment to provide a scientific and technical basis for helping National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit holders make management decisions. An Hg-offset system would be an option if a wastewater-treatment plant could not achieve NPDES permit requirements for HgT reduction. We develop a probabilistic decision-analytical model consisting of three submodels for HgT loading, MeHg, and cost mitigation within a Bayesian network that integrates information of varying rigor and detail into a simple model of a complex system. Hg processes are identified and quantified by using a combination of historical data, statistical models, and expert judgment. Such an integrated approach to uncertainty analysis allows easy updating of prediction and inference when observations of model variables are made. We demonstrate our approach with data from the Cache Creek watershed (a subbasin of the Sacramento River watershed). The empirical models used to generate the needed probability distributions are based on the same empirical models currently being used by the Central Valley Regional Water Quality Control Cache Creek Hg TMDL working group. The significant difference is that input uncertainty and error are explicitly included in the model and propagated throughout its algorithms. This work demonstrates how to integrate uncertainty into the complex and highly uncertain Hg TMDL decisionmaking process. The various sources of uncertainty are propagated as decision risk that allows decisionmakers to simultaneously consider uncertainties in remediation/implementation costs while attempting to meet environmental/ecologic targets. We must note that this research is on going. As more data are collected, the HgT and cost-mitigation submodels are updated and the uncer

JCCRER Project 2.3 -- Deterministic effects of occupational exposure to radiation. Phase 1: Feasibility study; Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Okladnikova, N.; Pesternikova, V.; Sumina, M.

1998-12-01

Phase 1 of Project 2.3, a short-term collaborative Feasibility Study, was funded for 12 months starting on 1 February 1996. The overall aim of the study was to determine the practical feasibility of using the dosimetric and clinical data on the MAYAK worker population to study the deterministic effects of exposure to external gamma radiation and to internal alpha radiation from inhaled plutonium. Phase 1 efforts were limited to the period of greatest worker exposure (1948--1954) and focused on collaboratively: assessing the comprehensiveness, availability, quality, and suitability of the Russian clinical and dosimetric data for the study of deterministic effects;more » creating an electronic data base containing complete clinical and dosimetric data on a small, representative sample of MAYAK workers; developing computer software for the testing of a currently used health risk model of hematopoietic effects; and familiarizing the US team with the Russian diagnostic criteria and techniques used in the identification of Chronic Radiation Sickness.« less

Logarithmic entanglement lightcone in many-body localized systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Dong-Ling; Li, Xiaopeng; Pixley, J. H.; Wu, Yang-Le; Das Sarma, S.

2017-01-01

We theoretically study the response of a many-body localized system to a local quench from a quantum information perspective. We find that the local quench triggers entanglement growth throughout the whole system, giving rise to a logarithmic lightcone. This saturates the modified Lieb-Robinson bound for quantum information propagation in many-body localized systems previously conjectured based on the existence of local integrals of motion. In addition, near the localization-delocalization transition, we find that the final states after the local quench exhibit volume-law entanglement. We also show that the local quench induces a deterministic orthogonality catastrophe for highly excited eigenstates, where the typical wave-function overlap between the pre- and postquench eigenstates decays exponentially with the system size.

Earthquake mechanism and seafloor deformation for tsunami generation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Oglesby, David D.; Beer, Michael; Kougioumtzoglou, Ioannis A.; Patelli, Edoardo; Siu-Kui Au, Ivan

2014-01-01

Tsunamis are generated in the ocean by rapidly displacing the entire water column over a significant area. The potential energy resulting from this disturbance is balanced with the kinetic energy of the waves during propagation. Only a handful of submarine geologic phenomena can generate tsunamis: large-magnitude earthquakes, large landslides, and volcanic processes. Asteroid and subaerial landslide impacts can generate tsunami waves from above the water. Earthquakes are by far the most common generator of tsunamis. Generally, earthquakes greater than magnitude (M) 6.5–7 can generate tsunamis if they occur beneath an ocean and if they result in predominantly vertical displacement. One of the greatest uncertainties in both deterministic and probabilistic hazard assessments of tsunamis is computing seafloor deformation for earthquakes of a given magnitude.

Effect of sample volume on metastable zone width and induction time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubota, Noriaki

2012-04-01

The metastable zone width (MSZW) and the induction time, measured for a large sample (say>0.1 L) are reproducible and deterministic, while, for a small sample (say<1 mL), these values are irreproducible and stochastic. Such behaviors of MSZW and induction time were theoretically discussed both with stochastic and deterministic models. Equations for the distribution of stochastic MSZW and induction time were derived. The average values of stochastic MSZW and induction time both decreased with an increase in sample volume, while, the deterministic MSZW and induction time remained unchanged. Such different behaviors with variation in sample volume were explained in terms of detection sensitivity of crystallization events. The average values of MSZW and induction time in the stochastic model were compared with the deterministic MSZW and induction time, respectively. Literature data reported for paracetamol aqueous solution were explained theoretically with the presented models.

Fencing network direct memory access data transfers in a parallel active messaging interface of a parallel computer

DOEpatents

Blocksome, Michael A.; Mamidala, Amith R.

2015-07-07

Fencing direct memory access (`DMA`) data transfers in a parallel active messaging interface (`PAMI`) of a parallel computer, the PAMI including data communications endpoints, each endpoint including specifications of a client, a context, and a task, the endpoints coupled for data communications through the PAMI and through DMA controllers operatively coupled to a deterministic data communications network through which the DMA controllers deliver data communications deterministically, including initiating execution through the PAMI of an ordered sequence of active DMA instructions for DMA data transfers between two endpoints, effecting deterministic DMA data transfers through a DMA controller and the deterministic data communications network; and executing through the PAMI, with no FENCE accounting for DMA data transfers, an active FENCE instruction, the FENCE instruction completing execution only after completion of all DMA instructions initiated prior to execution of the FENCE instruction for DMA data transfers between the two endpoints.

Fencing network direct memory access data transfers in a parallel active messaging interface of a parallel computer

DOEpatents

Blocksome, Michael A.; Mamidala, Amith R.

2015-07-14

Fencing direct memory access (`DMA`) data transfers in a parallel active messaging interface (`PAMI`) of a parallel computer, the PAMI including data communications endpoints, each endpoint including specifications of a client, a context, and a task, the endpoints coupled for data communications through the PAMI and through DMA controllers operatively coupled to a deterministic data communications network through which the DMA controllers deliver data communications deterministically, including initiating execution through the PAMI of an ordered sequence of active DMA instructions for DMA data transfers between two endpoints, effecting deterministic DMA data transfers through a DMA controller and the deterministic data communications network; and executing through the PAMI, with no FENCE accounting for DMA data transfers, an active FENCE instruction, the FENCE instruction completing execution only after completion of all DMA instructions initiated prior to execution of the FENCE instruction for DMA data transfers between the two endpoints.

Failed rib region prediction in a human body model during crash events with precrash braking.

PubMed

Guleyupoglu, B; Koya, B; Barnard, R; Gayzik, F S

2018-02-28

The objective of this study is 2-fold. We used a validated human body finite element model to study the predicted chest injury (focusing on rib fracture as a function of element strain) based on varying levels of simulated precrash braking. Furthermore, we compare deterministic and probabilistic methods of rib injury prediction in the computational model. The Global Human Body Models Consortium (GHBMC) M50-O model was gravity settled in the driver position of a generic interior equipped with an advanced 3-point belt and airbag. Twelve cases were investigated with permutations for failure, precrash braking system, and crash severity. The severities used were median (17 kph), severe (34 kph), and New Car Assessment Program (NCAP; 56.4 kph). Cases with failure enabled removed rib cortical bone elements once 1.8% effective plastic strain was exceeded. Alternatively, a probabilistic framework found in the literature was used to predict rib failure. Both the probabilistic and deterministic methods take into consideration location (anterior, lateral, and posterior). The deterministic method is based on a rubric that defines failed rib regions dependent on a threshold for contiguous failed elements. The probabilistic method depends on age-based strain and failure functions. Kinematics between both methods were similar (peak max deviation: ΔX head = 17 mm; ΔZ head = 4 mm; ΔX thorax = 5 mm; ΔZ thorax = 1 mm). Seat belt forces at the time of probabilistic failed region initiation were lower than those at deterministic failed region initiation. The probabilistic method for rib fracture predicted more failed regions in the rib (an analog for fracture) than the deterministic method in all but 1 case where they were equal. The failed region patterns between models are similar; however, there are differences that arise due to stress reduced from element elimination that cause probabilistic failed regions to continue to rise after no deterministic failed region would be predicted. Both the probabilistic and deterministic methods indicate similar trends with regards to the effect of precrash braking; however, there are tradeoffs. The deterministic failed region method is more spatially sensitive to failure and is more sensitive to belt loads. The probabilistic failed region method allows for increased capability in postprocessing with respect to age. The probabilistic failed region method predicted more failed regions than the deterministic failed region method due to force distribution differences.

Optimization of vibratory energy harvesters with stochastic parametric uncertainty: a new perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haji Hosseinloo, Ashkan; Turitsyn, Konstantin

2016-04-01

Vibration energy harvesting has been shown as a promising power source for many small-scale applications mainly because of the considerable reduction in the energy consumption of the electronics and scalability issues of the conventional batteries. However, energy harvesters may not be as robust as the conventional batteries and their performance could drastically deteriorate in the presence of uncertainty in their parameters. Hence, study of uncertainty propagation and optimization under uncertainty is essential for proper and robust performance of harvesters in practice. While all studies have focused on expectation optimization, we propose a new and more practical optimization perspective; optimization for the worst-case (minimum) power. We formulate the problem in a generic fashion and as a simple example apply it to a linear piezoelectric energy harvester. We study the effect of parametric uncertainty in its natural frequency, load resistance, and electromechanical coupling coefficient on its worst-case power and then optimize for it under different confidence levels. The results show that there is a significant improvement in the worst-case power of thus designed harvester compared to that of a naively-optimized (deterministically-optimized) harvester.

Spatially and time-resolved magnetization dynamics driven by spin-orbit torques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baumgartner, Manuel; Garello, Kevin; Mendil, Johannes; Avci, Can Onur; Grimaldi, Eva; Murer, Christoph; Feng, Junxiao; Gabureac, Mihai; Stamm, Christian; Acremann, Yves; Finizio, Simone; Wintz, Sebastian; Raabe, Jörg; Gambardella, Pietro

2017-10-01

Current-induced spin-orbit torques are one of the most effective ways to manipulate the magnetization in spintronic devices, and hold promise for fast switching applications in non-volatile memory and logic units. Here, we report the direct observation of spin-orbit-torque-driven magnetization dynamics in Pt/Co/AlOx dots during current pulse injection. Time-resolved X-ray images with 25 nm spatial and 100 ps temporal resolution reveal that switching is achieved within the duration of a subnanosecond current pulse by the fast nucleation of an inverted domain at the edge of the dot and propagation of a tilted domain wall across the dot. The nucleation point is deterministic and alternates between the four dot quadrants depending on the sign of the magnetization, current and external field. Our measurements reveal how the magnetic symmetry is broken by the concerted action of the damping-like and field-like spin-orbit torques and the Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction, and show that reproducible switching events can be obtained for over 1012 reversal cycles.

Improving ground-penetrating radar data in sedimentary rocks using deterministic deconvolution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xia, J.; Franseen, E.K.; Miller, R.D.; Weis, T.V.; Byrnes, A.P.

2003-01-01

Resolution is key to confidently identifying unique geologic features using ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data. Source wavelet "ringing" (related to bandwidth) in a GPR section limits resolution because of wavelet interference, and can smear reflections in time and/or space. The resultant potential for misinterpretation limits the usefulness of GPR. Deconvolution offers the ability to compress the source wavelet and improve temporal resolution. Unlike statistical deconvolution, deterministic deconvolution is mathematically simple and stable while providing the highest possible resolution because it uses the source wavelet unique to the specific radar equipment. Source wavelets generated in, transmitted through and acquired from air allow successful application of deterministic approaches to wavelet suppression. We demonstrate the validity of using a source wavelet acquired in air as the operator for deterministic deconvolution in a field application using "400-MHz" antennas at a quarry site characterized by interbedded carbonates with shale partings. We collected GPR data on a bench adjacent to cleanly exposed quarry faces in which we placed conductive rods to provide conclusive groundtruth for this approach to deconvolution. The best deconvolution results, which are confirmed by the conductive rods for the 400-MHz antenna tests, were observed for wavelets acquired when the transmitter and receiver were separated by 0.3 m. Applying deterministic deconvolution to GPR data collected in sedimentary strata at our study site resulted in an improvement in resolution (50%) and improved spatial location (0.10-0.15 m) of geologic features compared to the same data processed without deterministic deconvolution. The effectiveness of deterministic deconvolution for increased resolution and spatial accuracy of specific geologic features is further demonstrated by comparing results of deconvolved data with nondeconvolved data acquired along a 30-m transect immediately adjacent to a fresh quarry face. The results at this site support using deterministic deconvolution, which incorporates the GPR instrument's unique source wavelet, as a standard part of routine GPR data processing. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Regional scale landslide risk assessment with a dynamic physical model - development, application and uncertainty analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luna, Byron Quan; Vidar Vangelsten, Bjørn; Liu, Zhongqiang; Eidsvig, Unni; Nadim, Farrokh

2013-04-01

Landslide risk must be assessed at the appropriate scale in order to allow effective risk management. At the moment, few deterministic models exist that can do all the computations required for a complete landslide risk assessment at a regional scale. This arises from the difficulty to precisely define the location and volume of the released mass and from the inability of the models to compute the displacement with a large amount of individual initiation areas (computationally exhaustive). This paper presents a medium-scale, dynamic physical model for rapid mass movements in mountainous and volcanic areas. The deterministic nature of the approach makes it possible to apply it to other sites since it considers the frictional equilibrium conditions for the initiation process, the rheological resistance of the displaced flow for the run-out process and fragility curve that links intensity to economic loss for each building. The model takes into account the triggering effect of an earthquake, intense rainfall and a combination of both (spatial and temporal). The run-out module of the model considers the flow as a 2-D continuum medium solving the equations of mass balance and momentum conservation. The model is embedded in an open source environment geographical information system (GIS), it is computationally efficient and it is transparent (understandable and comprehensible) for the end-user. The model was applied to a virtual region, assessing landslide hazard, vulnerability and risk. A Monte Carlo simulation scheme was applied to quantify, propagate and communicate the effects of uncertainty in input parameters on the final results. In this technique, the input distributions are recreated through sampling and the failure criteria are calculated for each stochastic realisation of the site properties. The model is able to identify the released volumes of the critical slopes and the areas threatened by the run-out intensity. The obtained final outcome is the estimation of individual building damage and total economic risk. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme [FP7/2007-2013] under grant agreement No 265138 New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe (MATRIX).

Efficient, graph-based white matter connectivity from orientation distribution functions via multi-directional graph propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boucharin, Alexis; Oguz, Ipek; Vachet, Clement; Shi, Yundi; Sanchez, Mar; Styner, Martin

2011-03-01

The use of regional connectivity measurements derived from diffusion imaging datasets has become of considerable interest in the neuroimaging community in order to better understand cortical and subcortical white matter connectivity. Current connectivity assessment methods are based on streamline fiber tractography, usually applied in a Monte-Carlo fashion. In this work we present a novel, graph-based method that performs a fully deterministic, efficient and stable connectivity computation. The method handles crossing fibers and deals well with multiple seed regions. The computation is based on a multi-directional graph propagation method applied to sampled orientation distribution function (ODF), which can be computed directly from the original diffusion imaging data. We show early results of our method on synthetic and real datasets. The results illustrate the potential of our method towards subjectspecific connectivity measurements that are performed in an efficient, stable and reproducible manner. Such individual connectivity measurements would be well suited for application in population studies of neuropathology, such as Autism, Huntington's Disease, Multiple Sclerosis or leukodystrophies. The proposed method is generic and could easily be applied to non-diffusion data as long as local directional data can be derived.

Aeroelastic Uncertainty Quantification Studies Using the S4T Wind Tunnel Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nikbay, Melike; Heeg, Jennifer

2017-01-01

This paper originates from the joint efforts of an aeroelastic study team in the Applied Vehicle Technology Panel from NATO Science and Technology Organization, with the Task Group number AVT-191, titled "Application of Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification to Military Vehicle Design." We present aeroelastic uncertainty quantification studies using the SemiSpan Supersonic Transport wind tunnel model at the NASA Langley Research Center. The aeroelastic study team decided treat both structural and aerodynamic input parameters as uncertain and represent them as samples drawn from statistical distributions, propagating them through aeroelastic analysis frameworks. Uncertainty quantification processes require many function evaluations to asses the impact of variations in numerous parameters on the vehicle characteristics, rapidly increasing the computational time requirement relative to that required to assess a system deterministically. The increased computational time is particularly prohibitive if high-fidelity analyses are employed. As a remedy, the Istanbul Technical University team employed an Euler solver in an aeroelastic analysis framework, and implemented reduced order modeling with Polynomial Chaos Expansion and Proper Orthogonal Decomposition to perform the uncertainty propagation. The NASA team chose to reduce the prohibitive computational time by employing linear solution processes. The NASA team also focused on determining input sample distributions.

Invasive advance of an advantageous mutation: nucleation theory.

PubMed

O'Malley, Lauren; Basham, James; Yasi, Joseph A; Korniss, G; Allstadt, Andrew; Caraco, Thomas

2006-12-01

For sedentary organisms with localized reproduction, spatially clustered growth drives the invasive advance of a favorable mutation. We model competition between two alleles where recurrent mutation introduces a genotype with a rate of local propagation exceeding the resident's rate. We capture ecologically important properties of the rare invader's stochastic dynamics by assuming discrete individuals and local neighborhood interactions. To understand how individual-level processes may govern population patterns, we invoke the physical theory for nucleation of spatial systems. Nucleation theory discriminates between single-cluster and multi-cluster dynamics. A sufficiently low mutation rate, or a sufficiently small environment, generates single-cluster dynamics, an inherently stochastic process; a favorable mutation advances only if the invader cluster reaches a critical radius. For this mode of invasion, we identify the probability distribution of waiting times until the favored allele advances to competitive dominance, and we ask how the critical cluster size varies as propagation or mortality rates vary. Increasing the mutation rate or system size generates multi-cluster invasion, where spatial averaging produces nearly deterministic global dynamics. For this process, an analytical approximation from nucleation theory, called Avrami's Law, describes the time-dependent behavior of the genotype densities with remarkable accuracy.

Observation of entanglement between a quantum dot spin and a single photon.

PubMed

Gao, W B; Fallahi, P; Togan, E; Miguel-Sanchez, J; Imamoglu, A

2012-11-15

Entanglement has a central role in fundamental tests of quantum mechanics as well as in the burgeoning field of quantum information processing. Particularly in the context of quantum networks and communication, a main challenge is the efficient generation of entanglement between stationary (spin) and propagating (photon) quantum bits. Here we report the observation of quantum entanglement between a semiconductor quantum dot spin and the colour of a propagating optical photon. The demonstration of entanglement relies on the use of fast, single-photon detection, which allows us to project the photon into a superposition of red and blue frequency components. Our results extend the previous demonstrations of single-spin/single-photon entanglement in trapped ions, neutral atoms and nitrogen-vacancy centres to the domain of artificial atoms in semiconductor nanostructures that allow for on-chip integration of electronic and photonic elements. As a result of its fast optical transitions and favourable selection rules, the scheme we implement could in principle generate nearly deterministic entangled spin-photon pairs at a rate determined ultimately by the high spontaneous emission rate. Our observation constitutes a first step towards implementation of a quantum network with nodes consisting of semiconductor spin quantum bits.

Spatial Characterization of Radio Propagation Channel in Urban Vehicle-to-Infrastructure Environments to Support WSNs Deployment

PubMed Central

Granda, Fausto; Azpilicueta, Leyre; Vargas-Rosales, Cesar; Lopez-Iturri, Peio; Aguirre, Erik; Astrain, Jose Javier; Villandangos, Jesus; Falcone, Francisco

2017-01-01

Vehicular ad hoc Networks (VANETs) enable vehicles to communicate with each other as well as with roadside units (RSUs). Although there is a significant research effort in radio channel modeling focused on vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V), not much work has been done for vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) using 3D ray-tracing tools. This work evaluates some important parameters of a V2I wireless channel link such as large-scale path loss and multipath metrics in a typical urban scenario using a deterministic simulation model based on an in-house 3D Ray-Launching (3D-RL) algorithm at 5.9 GHz. Results show the high impact that the spatial distance; link frequency; placement of RSUs; and factors such as roundabout, geometry and relative position of the obstacles have in V2I propagation channel. A detailed spatial path loss characterization of the V2I channel along the streets and avenues is presented. The 3D-RL results show high accuracy when compared with measurements, and represent more reliably the propagation phenomena when compared with analytical path loss models. Performance metrics for a real test scenario implemented with a VANET wireless sensor network implemented ad-hoc are also described. These results constitute a starting point in the design phase of Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) radio-planning in the urban V2I deployment in terms of coverage. PMID:28590429

Spatial Characterization of Radio Propagation Channel in Urban Vehicle-to-Infrastructure Environments to Support WSNs Deployment.

PubMed

Granda, Fausto; Azpilicueta, Leyre; Vargas-Rosales, Cesar; Lopez-Iturri, Peio; Aguirre, Erik; Astrain, Jose Javier; Villandangos, Jesus; Falcone, Francisco

2017-06-07

Vehicular ad hoc Networks (VANETs) enable vehicles to communicate with each other as well as with roadside units (RSUs). Although there is a significant research effort in radio channel modeling focused on vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V), not much work has been done for vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) using 3D ray-tracing tools. This work evaluates some important parameters of a V2I wireless channel link such as large-scale path loss and multipath metrics in a typical urban scenario using a deterministic simulation model based on an in-house 3D Ray-Launching (3D-RL) algorithm at 5.9 GHz. Results show the high impact that the spatial distance; link frequency; placement of RSUs; and factors such as roundabout, geometry and relative position of the obstacles have in V2I propagation channel. A detailed spatial path loss characterization of the V2I channel along the streets and avenues is presented. The 3D-RL results show high accuracy when compared with measurements, and represent more reliably the propagation phenomena when compared with analytical path loss models. Performance metrics for a real test scenario implemented with a VANET wireless sensor network implemented ad-hoc are also described. These results constitute a starting point in the design phase of Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) radio-planning in the urban V2I deployment in terms of coverage.

Deterministic blade row interactions in a centrifugal compressor stage

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kirtley, K. R.; Beach, T. A.

1991-01-01

The three-dimensional viscous flow in a low speed centrifugal compressor stage is simulated using an average passage Navier-Stokes analysis. The impeller discharge flow is of the jet/wake type with low momentum fluid in the shroud-pressure side corner coincident with the tip leakage vortex. This nonuniformity introduces periodic unsteadiness in the vane frame of reference. The effect of such deterministic unsteadiness on the time-mean is included in the analysis through the average passage stress, which allows the analysis of blade row interactions. The magnitude of the divergence of the deterministic unsteady stress is of the order of the divergence of the Reynolds stress over most of the span, from the impeller trailing edge to the vane throat. Although the potential effects on the blade trailing edge from the diffuser vane are small, strong secondary flows generated by the impeller degrade the performance of the diffuser vanes.

Neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment in North Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mourabit, T.; Abou Elenean, K. M.; Ayadi, A.; Benouar, D.; Ben Suleman, A.; Bezzeghoud, M.; Cheddadi, A.; Chourak, M.; ElGabry, M. N.; Harbi, A.; Hfaiedh, M.; Hussein, H. M.; Kacem, J.; Ksentini, A.; Jabour, N.; Magrin, A.; Maouche, S.; Meghraoui, M.; Ousadou, F.; Panza, G. F.; Peresan, A.; Romdhane, N.; Vaccari, F.; Zuccolo, E.

2014-04-01

North Africa is one of the most earthquake-prone areas of the Mediterranean. Many devastating earthquakes, some of them tsunami-triggering, inflicted heavy loss of life and considerable economic damage to the region. In order to mitigate the destructive impact of the earthquakes, the regional seismic hazard in North Africa is assessed using the neo-deterministic, multi-scenario methodology (NDSHA) based on the computation of synthetic seismograms, using the modal summation technique, at a regular grid of 0.2 × 0.2°. This is the first study aimed at producing NDSHA maps of North Africa including five countries: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt. The key input data for the NDSHA algorithm are earthquake sources, seismotectonic zonation, and structural models. In the preparation of the input data, it has been really important to go beyond the national borders and to adopt a coherent strategy all over the area. Thanks to the collaborative efforts of the teams involved, it has been possible to properly merge the earthquake catalogues available for each country to define with homogeneous criteria the seismogenic zones, the characteristic focal mechanism associated with each of them, and the structural models used to model wave propagation from the sources to the sites. As a result, reliable seismic hazard maps are produced in terms of maximum displacement ( D max), maximum velocity ( V max), and design ground acceleration.

A mixed SIR-SIS model to contain a virus spreading through networks with two degrees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Essouifi, Mohamed; Achahbar, Abdelfattah

Due to the fact that the “nodes” and “links” of real networks are heterogeneous, to model computer viruses prevalence throughout the Internet, we borrow the idea of the reduced scale free network which was introduced recently. The purpose of this paper is to extend the previous deterministic two subchains of Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model into a mixed Susceptible-Infected-Recovered and Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIR-SIS) model to contain the computer virus spreading over networks with two degrees. Moreover, we develop its stochastic counterpart. Due to the high protection and security taken for hubs class, we suggest to treat it by using SIR epidemic model rather than the SIS one. The analytical study reveals that the proposed model admits a stable viral equilibrium. Thus, it is shown numerically that the mean dynamic behavior of the stochastic model is in agreement with the deterministic one. Unlike the infection densities i2 and i which both tend to a viral equilibrium for both approaches as in the previous study, i1 tends to the virus-free equilibrium. Furthermore, since a proportion of infectives are recovered, the global infection density i is minimized. Therefore, the permanent presence of viruses in the network due to the lower-degree nodes class. Many suggestions are put forward for containing viruses propagation and minimizing their damages.

Modeling Interactions between Transposable Elements and the Plant Epigenetic Response: A Surprising Reliance on Element Retention.

PubMed

Roessler, Kyria; Bousios, Alexandros; Meca, Esteban; Gaut, Brandon S

2018-03-01

Transposable elements (TEs) compose the majority of angiosperm DNA. Plants counteract TE activity by silencing them epigenetically. One form of epigenetic silencing requires 21-22 nt small interfering RNAs that act to degrade TE mRNA and may also trigger DNA methylation. DNA methylation is reinforced by a second mechanism, the RNA-dependent DNA methylation (RdDM) pathway. RdDM relies on 24 nt small interfering RNAs and ultimately establishes TEs in a quiescent state. These host factors interact at a systems level, but there have been no system level analyses of their interactions. Here, we define a deterministic model that represents the propagation of active TEs, aspects of the host response and the accumulation of silenced TEs. We describe general properties of the model and also fit it to biological data in order to explore two questions. The first is why two overlapping pathways are maintained, given that both are likely energetically expensive. Under our model, RdDM silenced TEs effectively even when the initiation of silencing was weak. This relationship implies that only a small amount of RNAi is needed to initiate TE silencing, but reinforcement by RdDM is necessary to efficiently counter TE propagation. Second, we investigated the reliance of the host response on rates of TE deletion. The model predicted that low levels of deletion lead to few active TEs, suggesting that silencing is most efficient when methylated TEs are retained in the genome, thereby providing one explanation for the large size of plant genomes.

Solar cosmic rays as a specific source of radiation risk during piloted space flight.

PubMed

Petrov, V M

2004-01-01

Solar cosmic rays present one of several radiation sources that are unique to space flight. Under ground conditions the exposure to individuals has a controlled form and radiation risk occurs as stochastic radiobiological effects. Existence of solar cosmic rays in space leads to a stochastic mode of radiation environment as a result of which any radiobiological consequences of exposure to solar cosmic rays during the flight will be probabilistic values. In this case, the hazard of deterministic effects should also be expressed in radiation risk values. The main deterministic effect under space conditions is radiation sickness. The best dosimetric functional for its analysis is the blood forming organs dose equivalent but not an effective dose. In addition, the repair processes in red bone marrow affect strongly on the manifestation of this pathology and they must be taken into account for radiation risk assessment. A method for taking into account the mentioned above peculiarities for the solar cosmic rays radiation risk assessment during the interplanetary flights is given in the report. It is shown that radiation risk of deterministic effects defined, as the death probability caused by radiation sickness due to acute solar cosmic rays exposure, can be comparable to risk of stochastic effects. Its value decreases strongly because of the fractional mode of exposure during the orbital movement of the spacecraft. On the contrary, during the interplanetary flight, radiation risk of deterministic effects increases significantly because of the residual component of the blood forming organs dose from previous solar proton events. The noted quality of radiation responses must be taken into account for estimating radiation hazard in space. c2004 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scattering effects of machined optical surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, Anita Kotha

1998-09-01

Optical fabrication is one of the most labor-intensive industries in existence. Lensmakers use pitch to affix glass blanks to metal chucks that hold the glass as they grind it with tools that have not changed much in fifty years. Recent demands placed on traditional optical fabrication processes in terms of surface accuracy, smoothnesses, and cost effectiveness has resulted in the exploitation of precision machining technology to develop a new generation of computer numerically controlled (CNC) optical fabrication equipment. This new kind of precision machining process is called deterministic microgrinding. The most conspicuous feature of optical surfaces manufactured by the precision machining processes (such as single-point diamond turning or deterministic microgrinding) is the presence of residual cutting tool marks. These residual tool marks exhibit a highly structured topography of periodic azimuthal or radial deterministic marks in addition to random microroughness. These distinct topographic features give rise to surface scattering effects that can significantly degrade optical performance. In this dissertation project we investigate the scattering behavior of machined optical surfaces and their imaging characteristics. In particular, we will characterize the residual optical fabrication errors and relate the resulting scattering behavior to the tool and machine parameters in order to evaluate and improve the deterministic microgrinding process. Other desired information derived from the investigation of scattering behavior is the optical fabrication tolerances necessary to satisfy specific image quality requirements. Optical fabrication tolerances are a major cost driver for any precision optical manufacturing technology. The derivation and control of the optical fabrication tolerances necessary for different applications and operating wavelength regimes will play a unique and central role in establishing deterministic microgrinding as a preferred and a cost-effective optical fabrication process. Other well understood optical fabrication processes will also be reviewed and a performance comparison with the conventional grinding and polishing technique will be made to determine any inherent advantages in the optical quality of surfaces produced by other techniques.

Fault Detection for Nonlinear Process With Deterministic Disturbances: A Just-In-Time Learning Based Data Driven Method.

PubMed

Yin, Shen; Gao, Huijun; Qiu, Jianbin; Kaynak, Okyay

2017-11-01

Data-driven fault detection plays an important role in industrial systems due to its applicability in case of unknown physical models. In fault detection, disturbances must be taken into account as an inherent characteristic of processes. Nevertheless, fault detection for nonlinear processes with deterministic disturbances still receive little attention, especially in data-driven field. To solve this problem, a just-in-time learning-based data-driven (JITL-DD) fault detection method for nonlinear processes with deterministic disturbances is proposed in this paper. JITL-DD employs JITL scheme for process description with local model structures to cope with processes dynamics and nonlinearity. The proposed method provides a data-driven fault detection solution for nonlinear processes with deterministic disturbances, and owns inherent online adaptation and high accuracy of fault detection. Two nonlinear systems, i.e., a numerical example and a sewage treatment process benchmark, are employed to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Mechanical switching of ferroelectric domains beyond flexoelectricity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Weijin; Liu, Jianyi; Ma, Lele; Liu, Linjie; Jiang, G. L.; Zheng, Yue

2018-02-01

The resurgence of interest in flexoelectricity has prompted discussions on the feasibility of switching ferroelectric domains 'non-electrically'. In this work, we perform three-dimensional thermodynamic simulations in combination with ab initio calculations and effective Hamiltonian simulations to demonstrate the great effects of surface screening and surface bonding on ferroelectric domain switching triggered by local tip loading. A three-dimensional simulation scheme has been developed to capture the tip-induced domain switching behavior in ferroelectric thin films by adequately taking into account the surface screening effect and surface bonding effect of the ferroelectric film, as well as the finite elastic stiffness of the substrate and the electrode layers. The major findings are as follows. (i) Compared with flexoelectricity, surface effects can be overwhelming and lead to much more efficient mechanical switching caused by tip loading. (ii) The surface-assisted mechanical switching can be bi-directional without the necessity of reversing strain gradients. (iii) A mode transition from local to propagating domain switching occurs when the screening below a critical value. A ripple effect of domain switching appears with the formation of concentric loop domains. (iv) The ripple effect can lead to 'domain interference' and a deterministic writing of confined loop domain patterns by local excitations. Our study reveals the hidden switching mechanisms of ferroelectric domains and the possible roles of surface in mechanical switching. The ripple effect of domain switching, which is believed to be general in dipole systems, broadens our current knowledge of domain engineering.

Error analysis in inverse scatterometry. I. Modeling.

PubMed

Al-Assaad, Rayan M; Byrne, Dale M

2007-02-01

Scatterometry is an optical technique that has been studied and tested in recent years in semiconductor fabrication metrology for critical dimensions. Previous work presented an iterative linearized method to retrieve surface-relief profile parameters from reflectance measurements upon diffraction. With the iterative linear solution model in this work, rigorous models are developed to represent the random and deterministic or offset errors in scatterometric measurements. The propagation of different types of error from the measurement data to the profile parameter estimates is then presented. The improvement in solution accuracies is then demonstrated with theoretical and experimental data by adjusting for the offset errors. In a companion paper (in process) an improved optimization method is presented to account for unknown offset errors in the measurements based on the offset error model.

Path selection in the growth of rivers

DOE PAGES

Cohen, Yossi; Devauchelle, Olivier; Seybold, Hansjörg F.; ...

2015-11-02

River networks exhibit a complex ramified structure that has inspired decades of studies. But, an understanding of the propagation of a single stream remains elusive. In this paper, we invoke a criterion for path selection from fracture mechanics and apply it to the growth of streams in a diffusion field. We show that, as it cuts through the landscape, a stream maintains a symmetric groundwater flow around its tip. The local flow conditions therefore determine the growth of the drainage network. We use this principle to reconstruct the history of a network and to find a growth law associated withmore » it. Finally, our results show that the deterministic growth of a single channel based on its local environment can be used to characterize the structure of river networks.« less

3.4.1: Numerical Methods for Propagating Uncertainty Across Scales and for Hybrid Stochastic-Deterministic Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-10-04

Fisher’s equation, as well as a two‐dimensional Allen‐ Cahn equation. We  observe  good performance of the  method  for nonlinear problems as well as...rates, discrepancies between  the  two  methods   are  observed ,  hence  revealing  strong  additional  coupling  between  different  fluctuating variables...of random fields based on  observations  of surrogate models or hierarchies of surrogate models.  Our  method  builds upon recent work on recursive

Gradient calculations for dynamic recurrent neural networks: a survey.

PubMed

Pearlmutter, B A

1995-01-01

Surveys learning algorithms for recurrent neural networks with hidden units and puts the various techniques into a common framework. The authors discuss fixed point learning algorithms, namely recurrent backpropagation and deterministic Boltzmann machines, and nonfixed point algorithms, namely backpropagation through time, Elman's history cutoff, and Jordan's output feedback architecture. Forward propagation, an on-line technique that uses adjoint equations, and variations thereof, are also discussed. In many cases, the unified presentation leads to generalizations of various sorts. The author discusses advantages and disadvantages of temporally continuous neural networks in contrast to clocked ones continues with some "tricks of the trade" for training, using, and simulating continuous time and recurrent neural networks. The author presents some simulations, and at the end, addresses issues of computational complexity and learning speed.

Zak phase induced multiband waveguide by two-dimensional photonic crystals.

PubMed

Yang, Yuting; Xu, Tao; Xu, Yun Fei; Hang, Zhi Hong

2017-08-15

Interface states in photonic crystals provide efficient approaches to control the flow of light. Photonic Zak phase determines the bulk band properties of photonic crystals, and, by assembling two photonic crystals with different bulk band properties together, deterministic interface states can be realized. By translating each unit cell of a photonic crystal by half the lattice constant, another photonic crystal with identical common gaps but a different Zak phase at each photonic band can be created. By assembling these two photonic crystals together, multiband waveguide can thus be easily created and then experimentally characterized. Our experimental results have good agreement with numerical simulations, and the propagation properties of these measured interface states indicate that this new type of interface state will be a good candidate for future applications of optical communications.

Asymmetrical Damage Partitioning in Bacteria: A Model for the Evolution of Stochasticity, Determinism, and Genetic Assimilation

PubMed Central

Chao, Lin; Rang, Camilla Ulla; Proenca, Audrey Menegaz; Chao, Jasper Ubirajara

2016-01-01

Non-genetic phenotypic variation is common in biological organisms. The variation is potentially beneficial if the environment is changing. If the benefit is large, selection can favor the evolution of genetic assimilation, the process by which the expression of a trait is transferred from environmental to genetic control. Genetic assimilation is an important evolutionary transition, but it is poorly understood because the fitness costs and benefits of variation are often unknown. Here we show that the partitioning of damage by a mother bacterium to its two daughters can evolve through genetic assimilation. Bacterial phenotypes are also highly variable. Because gene-regulating elements can have low copy numbers, the variation is attributed to stochastic sampling. Extant Escherichia coli partition asymmetrically and deterministically more damage to the old daughter, the one receiving the mother’s old pole. By modeling in silico damage partitioning in a population, we show that deterministic asymmetry is advantageous because it increases fitness variance and hence the efficiency of natural selection. However, we find that symmetrical but stochastic partitioning can be similarly beneficial. To examine why bacteria evolved deterministic asymmetry, we modeled the effect of damage anchored to the mother’s old pole. While anchored damage strengthens selection for asymmetry by creating additional fitness variance, it has the opposite effect on symmetry. The difference results because anchored damage reinforces the polarization of partitioning in asymmetric bacteria. In symmetric bacteria, it dilutes the polarization. Thus, stochasticity alone may have protected early bacteria from damage, but deterministic asymmetry has evolved to be equally important in extant bacteria. We estimate that 47% of damage partitioning is deterministic in E. coli. We suggest that the evolution of deterministic asymmetry from stochasticity offers an example of Waddington’s genetic assimilation. Our model is able to quantify the evolution of the assimilation because it characterizes the fitness consequences of variation. PMID:26761487

Asymmetrical Damage Partitioning in Bacteria: A Model for the Evolution of Stochasticity, Determinism, and Genetic Assimilation.

PubMed

Chao, Lin; Rang, Camilla Ulla; Proenca, Audrey Menegaz; Chao, Jasper Ubirajara

2016-01-01

Non-genetic phenotypic variation is common in biological organisms. The variation is potentially beneficial if the environment is changing. If the benefit is large, selection can favor the evolution of genetic assimilation, the process by which the expression of a trait is transferred from environmental to genetic control. Genetic assimilation is an important evolutionary transition, but it is poorly understood because the fitness costs and benefits of variation are often unknown. Here we show that the partitioning of damage by a mother bacterium to its two daughters can evolve through genetic assimilation. Bacterial phenotypes are also highly variable. Because gene-regulating elements can have low copy numbers, the variation is attributed to stochastic sampling. Extant Escherichia coli partition asymmetrically and deterministically more damage to the old daughter, the one receiving the mother's old pole. By modeling in silico damage partitioning in a population, we show that deterministic asymmetry is advantageous because it increases fitness variance and hence the efficiency of natural selection. However, we find that symmetrical but stochastic partitioning can be similarly beneficial. To examine why bacteria evolved deterministic asymmetry, we modeled the effect of damage anchored to the mother's old pole. While anchored damage strengthens selection for asymmetry by creating additional fitness variance, it has the opposite effect on symmetry. The difference results because anchored damage reinforces the polarization of partitioning in asymmetric bacteria. In symmetric bacteria, it dilutes the polarization. Thus, stochasticity alone may have protected early bacteria from damage, but deterministic asymmetry has evolved to be equally important in extant bacteria. We estimate that 47% of damage partitioning is deterministic in E. coli. We suggest that the evolution of deterministic asymmetry from stochasticity offers an example of Waddington's genetic assimilation. Our model is able to quantify the evolution of the assimilation because it characterizes the fitness consequences of variation.

Deterministic bead-in-droplet ejection utilizing an integrated plug-in bead dispenser for single bead-based applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Hojin; Choi, In Ho; Lee, Sanghyun; Won, Dong-Joon; Oh, Yong Suk; Kwon, Donghoon; Sung, Hyung Jin; Jeon, Sangmin; Kim, Joonwon

2017-04-01

This paper presents a deterministic bead-in-droplet ejection (BIDE) technique that regulates the precise distribution of microbeads in an ejected droplet. The deterministic BIDE was realized through the effective integration of a microfluidic single-particle handling technique with a liquid dispensing system. The integrated bead dispenser facilitates the transfer of the desired number of beads into a dispensing volume and the on-demand ejection of bead-encapsulated droplets. Single bead-encapsulated droplets were ejected every 3 s without any failure. Multiple-bead dispensing with deterministic control of the number of beads was demonstrated to emphasize the originality and quality of the proposed dispensing technique. The dispenser was mounted using a plug-socket type connection, and the dispensing process was completely automated using a programmed sequence without any microscopic observation. To demonstrate a potential application of the technique, bead-based streptavidin-biotin binding assay in an evaporating droplet was conducted using ultralow numbers of beads. The results evidenced the number of beads in the droplet crucially influences the reliability of the assay. Therefore, the proposed deterministic bead-in-droplet technology can be utilized to deliver desired beads onto a reaction site, particularly to reliably and efficiently enrich and detect target biomolecules.

Deterministic bead-in-droplet ejection utilizing an integrated plug-in bead dispenser for single bead-based applications.

PubMed

Kim, Hojin; Choi, In Ho; Lee, Sanghyun; Won, Dong-Joon; Oh, Yong Suk; Kwon, Donghoon; Sung, Hyung Jin; Jeon, Sangmin; Kim, Joonwon

2017-04-10

This paper presents a deterministic bead-in-droplet ejection (BIDE) technique that regulates the precise distribution of microbeads in an ejected droplet. The deterministic BIDE was realized through the effective integration of a microfluidic single-particle handling technique with a liquid dispensing system. The integrated bead dispenser facilitates the transfer of the desired number of beads into a dispensing volume and the on-demand ejection of bead-encapsulated droplets. Single bead-encapsulated droplets were ejected every 3 s without any failure. Multiple-bead dispensing with deterministic control of the number of beads was demonstrated to emphasize the originality and quality of the proposed dispensing technique. The dispenser was mounted using a plug-socket type connection, and the dispensing process was completely automated using a programmed sequence without any microscopic observation. To demonstrate a potential application of the technique, bead-based streptavidin-biotin binding assay in an evaporating droplet was conducted using ultralow numbers of beads. The results evidenced the number of beads in the droplet crucially influences the reliability of the assay. Therefore, the proposed deterministic bead-in-droplet technology can be utilized to deliver desired beads onto a reaction site, particularly to reliably and efficiently enrich and detect target biomolecules.

Deterministic bead-in-droplet ejection utilizing an integrated plug-in bead dispenser for single bead–based applications

PubMed Central

Kim, Hojin; Choi, In Ho; Lee, Sanghyun; Won, Dong-Joon; Oh, Yong Suk; Kwon, Donghoon; Sung, Hyung Jin; Jeon, Sangmin; Kim, Joonwon

2017-01-01

This paper presents a deterministic bead-in-droplet ejection (BIDE) technique that regulates the precise distribution of microbeads in an ejected droplet. The deterministic BIDE was realized through the effective integration of a microfluidic single-particle handling technique with a liquid dispensing system. The integrated bead dispenser facilitates the transfer of the desired number of beads into a dispensing volume and the on-demand ejection of bead-encapsulated droplets. Single bead–encapsulated droplets were ejected every 3 s without any failure. Multiple-bead dispensing with deterministic control of the number of beads was demonstrated to emphasize the originality and quality of the proposed dispensing technique. The dispenser was mounted using a plug-socket type connection, and the dispensing process was completely automated using a programmed sequence without any microscopic observation. To demonstrate a potential application of the technique, bead-based streptavidin–biotin binding assay in an evaporating droplet was conducted using ultralow numbers of beads. The results evidenced the number of beads in the droplet crucially influences the reliability of the assay. Therefore, the proposed deterministic bead-in-droplet technology can be utilized to deliver desired beads onto a reaction site, particularly to reliably and efficiently enrich and detect target biomolecules. PMID:28393911

Demographic noise can reverse the direction of deterministic selection

PubMed Central

Constable, George W. A.; Rogers, Tim; McKane, Alan J.; Tarnita, Corina E.

2016-01-01

Deterministic evolutionary theory robustly predicts that populations displaying altruistic behaviors will be driven to extinction by mutant cheats that absorb common benefits but do not themselves contribute. Here we show that when demographic stochasticity is accounted for, selection can in fact act in the reverse direction to that predicted deterministically, instead favoring cooperative behaviors that appreciably increase the carrying capacity of the population. Populations that exist in larger numbers experience a selective advantage by being more stochastically robust to invasions than smaller populations, and this advantage can persist even in the presence of reproductive costs. We investigate this general effect in the specific context of public goods production and find conditions for stochastic selection reversal leading to the success of public good producers. This insight, developed here analytically, is missed by the deterministic analysis as well as by standard game theoretic models that enforce a fixed population size. The effect is found to be amplified by space; in this scenario we find that selection reversal occurs within biologically reasonable parameter regimes for microbial populations. Beyond the public good problem, we formulate a general mathematical framework for models that may exhibit stochastic selection reversal. In this context, we describe a stochastic analog to r−K theory, by which small populations can evolve to higher densities in the absence of disturbance. PMID:27450085

Probabilistic direct counterfactual quantum communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Sheng

2017-02-01

It is striking that the quantum Zeno effect can be used to launch a direct counterfactual communication between two spatially separated parties, Alice and Bob. So far, existing protocols of this type only provide a deterministic counterfactual communication service. However, this counterfactuality should be payed at a price. Firstly, the transmission time is much longer than a classical transmission costs. Secondly, the chained-cycle structure makes them more sensitive to channel noises. Here, we extend the idea of counterfactual communication, and present a probabilistic-counterfactual quantum communication protocol, which is proved to have advantages over the deterministic ones. Moreover, the presented protocol could evolve to a deterministic one solely by adjusting the parameters of the beam splitters. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 61300203).

Positive dwell time algorithm with minimum equal extra material removal in deterministic optical surfacing technology.

PubMed

Li, Longxiang; Xue, Donglin; Deng, Weijie; Wang, Xu; Bai, Yang; Zhang, Feng; Zhang, Xuejun

2017-11-10

In deterministic computer-controlled optical surfacing, accurate dwell time execution by computer numeric control machines is crucial in guaranteeing a high-convergence ratio for the optical surface error. It is necessary to consider the machine dynamics limitations in the numerical dwell time algorithms. In this paper, these constraints on dwell time distribution are analyzed, and a model of the equal extra material removal is established. A positive dwell time algorithm with minimum equal extra material removal is developed. Results of simulations based on deterministic magnetorheological finishing demonstrate the necessity of considering machine dynamics performance and illustrate the validity of the proposed algorithm. Indeed, the algorithm effectively facilitates the determinacy of sub-aperture optical surfacing processes.

Stochastic Seismic Response of an Algiers Site with Random Depth to Bedrock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badaoui, M.; Berrah, M. K.; Mébarki, A.

2010-05-01

Among the important effects of the Boumerdes earthquake (Algeria, May 21st 2003) was that, within the same zone, the destructions in certain parts were more important than in others. This phenomenon is due to site effects which alter the characteristics of seismic motions and cause concentration of damage during earthquakes. Local site effects such as thickness and mechanical properties of soil layers have important effects on the surface ground motions. This paper deals with the effect of the randomness aspect of the depth to bedrock (soil layers heights) which is assumed to be a random variable with lognormal distribution. This distribution is suitable for strictly non-negative random variables with large values of the coefficient of variation. In this case, Monte Carlo simulations are combined with the stiffness matrix method, used herein as a deterministic method, for evaluating the effect of the depth to bedrock uncertainty on the seismic response of a multilayered soil. This study considers a P and SV wave propagation pattern using input accelerations collected at Keddara station, located at 20 km from the epicenter, as it is located directly on the bedrock. A parametric study is conducted do derive the stochastic behavior of the peak ground acceleration and its response spectrum, the transfer function and the amplification factors. It is found that the soil height heterogeneity causes a widening of the frequency content and an increase in the fundamental frequency of the soil profile, indicating that the resonance phenomenon concerns a larger number of structures.

Deterministic chaotic dynamics of Raba River flow (Polish Carpathian Mountains)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kędra, Mariola

2014-02-01

Is the underlying dynamics of river flow random or deterministic? If it is deterministic, is it deterministic chaotic? This issue is still controversial. The application of several independent methods, techniques and tools for studying daily river flow data gives consistent, reliable and clear-cut results to the question. The outcomes point out that the investigated discharge dynamics is not random but deterministic. Moreover, the results completely confirm the nonlinear deterministic chaotic nature of the studied process. The research was conducted on daily discharge from two selected gauging stations of the mountain river in southern Poland, the Raba River.

Deterministic ion beam material adding technology for high-precision optical surfaces.

PubMed

Liao, Wenlin; Dai, Yifan; Xie, Xuhui; Zhou, Lin

2013-02-20

Although ion beam figuring (IBF) provides a highly deterministic method for the precision figuring of optical components, several problems still need to be addressed, such as the limited correcting capability for mid-to-high spatial frequency surface errors and low machining efficiency for pit defects on surfaces. We propose a figuring method named deterministic ion beam material adding (IBA) technology to solve those problems in IBF. The current deterministic optical figuring mechanism, which is dedicated to removing local protuberances on optical surfaces, is enriched and developed by the IBA technology. Compared with IBF, this method can realize the uniform convergence of surface errors, where the particle transferring effect generated in the IBA process can effectively correct the mid-to-high spatial frequency errors. In addition, IBA can rapidly correct the pit defects on the surface and greatly improve the machining efficiency of the figuring process. The verification experiments are accomplished on our experimental installation to validate the feasibility of the IBA method. First, a fused silica sample with a rectangular pit defect is figured by using IBA. Through two iterations within only 47.5 min, this highly steep pit is effectively corrected, and the surface error is improved from the original 24.69 nm root mean square (RMS) to the final 3.68 nm RMS. Then another experiment is carried out to demonstrate the correcting capability of IBA for mid-to-high spatial frequency surface errors, and the final results indicate that the surface accuracy and surface quality can be simultaneously improved.

Ergodicity of Truncated Stochastic Navier Stokes with Deterministic Forcing and Dispersion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majda, Andrew J.; Tong, Xin T.

2016-10-01

Turbulence in idealized geophysical flows is a very rich and important topic. The anisotropic effects of explicit deterministic forcing, dispersive effects from rotation due to the β -plane and F-plane, and topography together with random forcing all combine to produce a remarkable number of realistic phenomena. These effects have been studied through careful numerical experiments in the truncated geophysical models. These important results include transitions between coherent jets and vortices, and direct and inverse turbulence cascades as parameters are varied, and it is a contemporary challenge to explain these diverse statistical predictions. Here we contribute to these issues by proving with full mathematical rigor that for any values of the deterministic forcing, the β - and F-plane effects and topography, with minimal stochastic forcing, there is geometric ergodicity for any finite Galerkin truncation. This means that there is a unique smooth invariant measure which attracts all statistical initial data at an exponential rate. In particular, this rigorous statistical theory guarantees that there are no bifurcations to multiple stable and unstable statistical steady states as geophysical parameters are varied in contrast to claims in the applied literature. The proof utilizes a new statistical Lyapunov function to account for enstrophy exchanges between the statistical mean and the variance fluctuations due to the deterministic forcing. It also requires careful proofs of hypoellipticity with geophysical effects and uses geometric control theory to establish reachability. To illustrate the necessity of these conditions, a two-dimensional example is developed which has the square of the Euclidean norm as the Lyapunov function and is hypoelliptic with nonzero noise forcing, yet fails to be reachable or ergodic.

On the usage of ultrasound computational models for decision making under ambiguity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dib, Gerges; Sexton, Samuel; Prowant, Matthew; Crawford, Susan; Diaz, Aaron

2018-04-01

Computer modeling and simulation is becoming pervasive within the non-destructive evaluation (NDE) industry as a convenient tool for designing and assessing inspection techniques. This raises a pressing need for developing quantitative techniques for demonstrating the validity and applicability of the computational models. Computational models provide deterministic results based on deterministic and well-defined input, or stochastic results based on inputs defined by probability distributions. However, computational models cannot account for the effects of personnel, procedures, and equipment, resulting in ambiguity about the efficacy of inspections based on guidance from computational models only. In addition, ambiguity arises when model inputs, such as the representation of realistic cracks, cannot be defined deterministically, probabilistically, or by intervals. In this work, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory demonstrates the ability of computational models to represent field measurements under known variabilities, and quantify the differences using maximum amplitude and power spectrum density metrics. Sensitivity studies are also conducted to quantify the effects of different input parameters on the simulation results.

Electric field control of deterministic current-induced magnetization switching in a hybrid ferromagnetic/ferroelectric structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Kaiming; Yang, Meiyin; Ju, Hailang; Wang, Sumei; Ji, Yang; Li, Baohe; Edmonds, Kevin William; Sheng, Yu; Zhang, Bao; Zhang, Nan; Liu, Shuai; Zheng, Houzhi; Wang, Kaiyou

2017-07-01

All-electrical and programmable manipulations of ferromagnetic bits are highly pursued for the aim of high integration and low energy consumption in modern information technology. Methods based on the spin-orbit torque switching in heavy metal/ferromagnet structures have been proposed with magnetic field, and are heading toward deterministic switching without external magnetic field. Here we demonstrate that an in-plane effective magnetic field can be induced by an electric field without breaking the symmetry of the structure of the thin film, and realize the deterministic magnetization switching in a hybrid ferromagnetic/ferroelectric structure with Pt/Co/Ni/Co/Pt layers on PMN-PT substrate. The effective magnetic field can be reversed by changing the direction of the applied electric field on the PMN-PT substrate, which fully replaces the controllability function of the external magnetic field. The electric field is found to generate an additional spin-orbit torque on the CoNiCo magnets, which is confirmed by macrospin calculations and micromagnetic simulations.

Deterministic Creation of Macroscopic Cat States

PubMed Central

Lombardo, Daniel; Twamley, Jason

2015-01-01

Despite current technological advances, observing quantum mechanical effects outside of the nanoscopic realm is extremely challenging. For this reason, the observation of such effects on larger scale systems is currently one of the most attractive goals in quantum science. Many experimental protocols have been proposed for both the creation and observation of quantum states on macroscopic scales, in particular, in the field of optomechanics. The majority of these proposals, however, rely on performing measurements, making them probabilistic. In this work we develop a completely deterministic method of macroscopic quantum state creation. We study the prototypical optomechanical Membrane In The Middle model and show that by controlling the membrane’s opacity, and through careful choice of the optical cavity initial state, we can deterministically create and grow the spatial extent of the membrane’s position into a large cat state. It is found that by using a Bose-Einstein condensate as a membrane high fidelity cat states with spatial separations of up to ∼300 nm can be achieved. PMID:26345157

Non-Deterministic Dynamic Instability of Composite Shells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Christos C.; Abumeri, Galib H.

2004-01-01

A computationally effective method is described to evaluate the non-deterministic dynamic instability (probabilistic dynamic buckling) of thin composite shells. The method is a judicious combination of available computer codes for finite element, composite mechanics, and probabilistic structural analysis. The solution method is incrementally updated Lagrangian. It is illustrated by applying it to thin composite cylindrical shell subjected to dynamic loads. Both deterministic and probabilistic buckling loads are evaluated to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. A universal plot is obtained for the specific shell that can be used to approximate buckling loads for different load rates and different probability levels. Results from this plot show that the faster the rate, the higher the buckling load and the shorter the time. The lower the probability, the lower is the buckling load for a specific time. Probabilistic sensitivity results show that the ply thickness, the fiber volume ratio and the fiber longitudinal modulus, dynamic load and loading rate are the dominant uncertainties, in that order.

Down to the roughness scale assessment of piston-ring/liner contacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Checo, H. M.; Jaramillo, A.; Ausas, R. F.; Jai, M.; Buscaglia, G. C.

2017-02-01

The effects of surface roughness in hydrodynamic bearings been accounted for through several approaches, the most widely used being averaging or stochastic techniques. With these the surface is not treated “as it is”, but by means of an assumed probability distribution for the roughness. The so called direct, deterministic or measured-surface simulation) solve the lubrication problem with realistic surfaces down to the roughness scale. This leads to expensive computational problems. Most researchers have tackled this problem considering non-moving surfaces and neglecting the ring dynamics to reduce the computational burden. What is proposed here is to solve the fully-deterministic simulation both in space and in time, so that the actual movement of the surfaces and the rings dynamics are taken into account. This simulation is much more complex than previous ones, as it is intrinsically transient. The feasibility of these fully-deterministic simulations is illustrated two cases: fully deterministic simulation of liner surfaces with diverse finishings (honed and coated bores) with constant piston velocity and load on the ring and also in real engine conditions.

Optical π phase shift created with a single-photon pulse.

PubMed

Tiarks, Daniel; Schmidt, Steffen; Rempe, Gerhard; Dürr, Stephan

2016-04-01

A deterministic photon-photon quantum logic gate is a long-standing goal. Building such a gate becomes possible if a light pulse containing only one photon imprints a phase shift of π onto another light field. We experimentally demonstrate the generation of such a π phase shift with a single-photon pulse. A first light pulse containing less than one photon on average is stored in an atomic gas. Rydberg blockade combined with electromagnetically induced transparency creates a phase shift for a second light pulse, which propagates through the medium. We measure the π phase shift of the second pulse when we postselect the data upon the detection of a retrieved photon from the first pulse. This demonstrates a crucial step toward a photon-photon gate and offers a variety of applications in the field of quantum information processing.

Estimation of Radiofrequency Power Leakage from Microwave Ovens for Dosimetric Assessment at Nonionizing Radiation Exposure Levels

PubMed Central

Lopez-Iturri, Peio; de Miguel-Bilbao, Silvia; Aguirre, Erik; Azpilicueta, Leire; Falcone, Francisco; Ramos, Victoria

2015-01-01

The electromagnetic field leakage levels of nonionizing radiation from a microwave oven have been estimated within a complex indoor scenario. By employing a hybrid simulation technique, based on coupling full wave simulation with an in-house developed deterministic 3D ray launching code, estimations of the observed electric field values can be obtained for the complete indoor scenario. The microwave oven can be modeled as a time- and frequency-dependent radiating source, in which leakage, basically from the microwave oven door, is propagated along the complete indoor scenario interacting with all of the elements present in it. This method can be of aid in order to assess the impact of such devices on expected exposure levels, allowing adequate minimization strategies such as optimal location to be applied. PMID:25705676

Using Reputation Systems and Non-Deterministic Routing to Secure Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Moya, José M.; Vallejo, Juan Carlos; Fraga, David; Araujo, Álvaro; Villanueva, Daniel; de Goyeneche, Juan-Mariano

2009-01-01

Security in wireless sensor networks is difficult to achieve because of the resource limitations of the sensor nodes. We propose a trust-based decision framework for wireless sensor networks coupled with a non-deterministic routing protocol. Both provide a mechanism to effectively detect and confine common attacks, and, unlike previous approaches, allow bad reputation feedback to the network. This approach has been extensively simulated, obtaining good results, even for unrealistically complex attack scenarios. PMID:22412345

Impacts of Considering Climate Variability on Investment Decisions in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strzepek, K.; Block, P.; Rosegrant, M.; Diao, X.

2005-12-01

In Ethiopia, climate extremes, inducing droughts or floods, are not unusual. Monitoring the effects of these extremes, and climate variability in general, is critical for economic prediction and assessment of the country's future welfare. The focus of this study involves adding climate variability to a deterministic, mean climate-driven agro-economic model, in an attempt to understand its effects and degree of influence on general economic prediction indicators for Ethiopia. Four simulations are examined, including a baseline simulation and three investment strategies: simulations of irrigation investment, roads investment, and a combination investment of both irrigation and roads. The deterministic model is transformed into a stochastic model by dynamically adding year-to-year climate variability through climate-yield factors. Nine sets of actual, historic, variable climate data are individually assembled and implemented into the 12-year stochastic model simulation, producing an ensemble of economic prediction indicators. This ensemble allows for a probabilistic approach to planning and policy making, allowing decision makers to consider risk. The economic indicators from the deterministic and stochastic approaches, including rates of return to investments, are significantly different. The predictions of the deterministic model appreciably overestimate the future welfare of Ethiopia; the predictions of the stochastic model, utilizing actual climate data, tend to give a better semblance of what may be expected. Inclusion of climate variability is vital for proper analysis of the predictor values from this agro-economic model.

Deterministic Factors Overwhelm Stochastic Environmental Fluctuations as Drivers of Jellyfish Outbreaks.

PubMed

Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro; Canepa, Antonio; Fuentes, Veronica; Tamburello, Laura; Purcell, Jennifer E; Piraino, Stefano; Roberts, Jason; Boero, Ferdinando; Halpin, Patrick

2015-01-01

Jellyfish outbreaks are increasingly viewed as a deterministic response to escalating levels of environmental degradation and climate extremes. However, a comprehensive understanding of the influence of deterministic drivers and stochastic environmental variations favouring population renewal processes has remained elusive. This study quantifies the deterministic and stochastic components of environmental change that lead to outbreaks of the jellyfish Pelagia noctiluca in the Mediterranen Sea. Using data of jellyfish abundance collected at 241 sites along the Catalan coast from 2007 to 2010 we: (1) tested hypotheses about the influence of time-varying and spatial predictors of jellyfish outbreaks; (2) evaluated the relative importance of stochastic vs. deterministic forcing of outbreaks through the environmental bootstrap method; and (3) quantified return times of extreme events. Outbreaks were common in May and June and less likely in other summer months, which resulted in a negative relationship between outbreaks and SST. Cross- and along-shore advection by geostrophic flow were important concentrating forces of jellyfish, but most outbreaks occurred in the proximity of two canyons in the northern part of the study area. This result supported the recent hypothesis that canyons can funnel P. noctiluca blooms towards shore during upwelling. This can be a general, yet unappreciated mechanism leading to outbreaks of holoplanktonic jellyfish species. The environmental bootstrap indicated that stochastic environmental fluctuations have negligible effects on return times of outbreaks. Our analysis emphasized the importance of deterministic processes leading to jellyfish outbreaks compared to the stochastic component of environmental variation. A better understanding of how environmental drivers affect demographic and population processes in jellyfish species will increase the ability to anticipate jellyfish outbreaks in the future.

Optimal control in adaptive optics modeling of nonlinear systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrmann, J.

The problem of using an adaptive optics system to correct for nonlinear effects like thermal blooming is addressed using a model containing nonlinear lenses through which Gaussian beams are propagated. The best correction of this nonlinear system can be formulated as a deterministic open loop optimal control problem. This treatment gives a limit for the best possible correction. Aspects of adaptive control and servo systems are not included at this stage. An attempt is made to determine that control in the transmitter plane which minimizes the time averaged area or maximizes the fluence in the target plane. The standard minimization procedure leads to a two-point-boundary-value problem, which is ill-conditioned in the case. The optimal control problem was solved using an iterative gradient technique. An instantaneous correction is introduced and compared with the optimal correction. The results of the calculations show that for short times or weak nonlinearities the instantaneous correction is close to the optimal correction, but that for long times and strong nonlinearities a large difference develops between the two types of correction. For these cases the steady state correction becomes better than the instantaneous correction and approaches the optimum correction.

Collective stochastic coherence in recurrent neuronal networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sancristóbal, Belén; Rebollo, Beatriz; Boada, Pol; Sanchez-Vives, Maria V.; Garcia-Ojalvo, Jordi

2016-09-01

Recurrent networks of dynamic elements frequently exhibit emergent collective oscillations, which can show substantial regularity even when the individual elements are considerably noisy. How noise-induced dynamics at the local level coexists with regular oscillations at the global level is still unclear. Here we show that a combination of stochastic recurrence-based initiation with deterministic refractoriness in an excitable network can reconcile these two features, leading to maximum collective coherence for an intermediate noise level. We report this behaviour in the slow oscillation regime exhibited by a cerebral cortex network under dynamical conditions resembling slow-wave sleep and anaesthesia. Computational analysis of a biologically realistic network model reveals that an intermediate level of background noise leads to quasi-regular dynamics. We verify this prediction experimentally in cortical slices subject to varying amounts of extracellular potassium, which modulates neuronal excitability and thus synaptic noise. The model also predicts that this effectively regular state should exhibit noise-induced memory of the spatial propagation profile of the collective oscillations, which is also verified experimentally. Taken together, these results allow us to construe the high regularity observed experimentally in the brain as an instance of collective stochastic coherence.

Radial transfer effects for poloidal rotation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallatschek, Klaus

2010-11-01

Radial transfer of energy or momentum is the principal agent responsible for radial structures of Geodesic Acoustic Modes (GAMs) or stationary Zonal Flows (ZF) generated by the turbulence. For the GAM, following a physical approach, it is possible to find useful expressions for the individual components of the Poynting flux or radial group velocity allowing predictions where a mathematical full analysis is unfeasible. Striking differences between up-down symmetric flux surfaces and asymmetric ones have been found. For divertor geometries, e.g., the direction of the propagation depends on the sign of the ion grad-B drift with respect to the X-point, reminiscent of a sensitive determinant of the H-mode threshold. In nonlocal turbulence computations it becomes obvious that the linear energy transfer terms can be completely overwhelmed by the action of the turbulence. In contrast, stationary ZFs are governed by the turbulent radial transfer of momentum. For sufficiently large systems, the Reynolds stress becomes a deterministic functional of the flows, which can be empirically determined from the stress response in computational turbulence studies. The functional allows predictions even on flow/turbulence states not readily obtainable from small amplitude noise, such as certain transport bifurcations or meta-stable states.

Ecosystems Biology Approaches To Determine Key Fitness Traits of Soil Microorganisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brodie, E.; Zhalnina, K.; Karaoz, U.; Cho, H.; Nuccio, E. E.; Shi, S.; Lipton, M. S.; Zhou, J.; Pett-Ridge, J.; Northen, T.; Firestone, M.

2014-12-01

The application of theoretical approaches such as trait-based modeling represent powerful tools to explain and perhaps predict complex patterns in microbial distribution and function across environmental gradients in space and time. These models are mostly deterministic and where available are built upon a detailed understanding of microbial physiology and response to environmental factors. However as most soil microorganisms have not been cultivated, for the majority our understanding is limited to insights from environmental 'omic information. Information gleaned from 'omic studies of complex systems should be regarded as providing hypotheses, and these hypotheses should be tested under controlled laboratory conditions if they are to be propagated into deterministic models. In a semi-arid Mediterranean grassland system we are attempting to dissect microbial communities into functional guilds with defined physiological traits and are using a range of 'omics approaches to characterize their metabolic potential and niche preference. Initially, two physiologically relevant time points (peak plant activity and prior to wet-up) were sampled and metagenomes sequenced deeply (600-900 Gbp). Following assembly, differential coverage and nucleotide frequency binning were carried out to yield draft genomes. In addition, using a range of cultivation media we have isolated a broad range of bacteria representing abundant bacterial genotypes and with genome sequences of almost 40 isolates are testing genomic predictions regarding growth rate, temperature and substrate utilization in vitro. This presentation will discuss the opportunities and challenges in parameterizing microbial functional guilds from environmental 'omic information for use in trait-based models.

On the optimal selection of interpolation methods for groundwater contouring: An example of propagation of uncertainty regarding inter-aquifer exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohmer, Marc; Liesch, Tanja; Goeppert, Nadine; Goldscheider, Nico

2017-11-01

The selection of the best possible method to interpolate a continuous groundwater surface from point data of groundwater levels is a controversial issue. In the present study four deterministic and five geostatistical interpolation methods (global polynomial interpolation, local polynomial interpolation, inverse distance weighting, radial basis function, simple-, ordinary-, universal-, empirical Bayesian and co-Kriging) and six error statistics (ME, MAE, MAPE, RMSE, RMSSE, Pearson R) were examined for a Jurassic karst aquifer and a Quaternary alluvial aquifer. We investigated the possible propagation of uncertainty of the chosen interpolation method on the calculation of the estimated vertical groundwater exchange between the aquifers. Furthermore, we validated the results with eco-hydrogeological data including the comparison between calculated groundwater depths and geographic locations of karst springs, wetlands and surface waters. These results show, that calculated inter-aquifer exchange rates based on different interpolations of groundwater potentials may vary greatly depending on the chosen interpolation method (by factor >10). Therefore, the choice of an interpolation method should be made with care, taking different error measures as well as additional data for plausibility control into account. The most accurate results have been obtained with co-Kriging incorporating secondary data (e.g. topography, river levels).

Propagation of variability in railway dynamic simulations: application to virtual homologation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funfschilling, Christine; Perrin, Guillaume; Kraft, Sönke

2012-01-01

Railway dynamic simulations are increasingly used to predict and analyse the behaviour of the vehicle and of the track during their whole life cycle. Up to now however, no simulation has been used in the certification procedure even if the expected benefits are important: cheaper and shorter procedures, more objectivity, better knowledge of the behaviour around critical situations. Deterministic simulations are nevertheless too poor to represent the whole physical of the track/vehicle system which contains several sources of variability: variability of the mechanical parameters of a train among a class of vehicles (mass, stiffness and damping of different suspensions), variability of the contact parameters (friction coefficient, wheel and rail profiles) and variability of the track design and quality. This variability plays an important role on the safety, on the ride quality, and thus on the certification criteria. When using the simulation for certification purposes, it seems therefore crucial to take into account the variability of the different inputs. The main goal of this article is thus to propose a method to introduce the variability in railway dynamics. A four-step method is described namely the definition of the stochastic problem, the modelling of the inputs variability, the propagation and the analysis of the output. Each step is illustrated with railway examples.

Broadband ground-motion simulation using a hybrid approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graves, R.W.; Pitarka, A.

2010-01-01

This paper describes refinements to the hybrid broadband ground-motion simulation methodology of Graves and Pitarka (2004), which combines a deterministic approach at low frequencies (f 1 Hz). In our approach, fault rupture is represented kinematically and incorporates spatial heterogeneity in slip, rupture speed, and rise time. The prescribed slip distribution is constrained to follow an inverse wavenumber-squared fall-off and the average rupture speed is set at 80% of the local shear-wave velocity, which is then adjusted such that the rupture propagates faster in regions of high slip and slower in regions of low slip. We use a Kostrov-like slip-rate function having a rise time proportional to the square root of slip, with the average rise time across the entire fault constrained empirically. Recent observations from large surface rupturing earthquakes indicate a reduction of rupture propagation speed and lengthening of rise time in the near surface, which we model by applying a 70% reduction of the rupture speed and increasing the rise time by a factor of 2 in a zone extending from the surface to a depth of 5 km. We demonstrate the fidelity of the technique by modeling the strong-motion recordings from the Imperial Valley, Loma Prieta, Landers, and Northridge earthquakes.

Agent-based modeling of endotoxin-induced acute inflammatory response in human blood leukocytes.

PubMed

Dong, Xu; Foteinou, Panagiota T; Calvano, Steven E; Lowry, Stephen F; Androulakis, Ioannis P

2010-02-18

Inflammation is a highly complex biological response evoked by many stimuli. A persistent challenge in modeling this dynamic process has been the (nonlinear) nature of the response that precludes the single-variable assumption. Systems-based approaches offer a promising possibility for understanding inflammation in its homeostatic context. In order to study the underlying complexity of the acute inflammatory response, an agent-based framework is developed that models the emerging host response as the outcome of orchestrated interactions associated with intricate signaling cascades and intercellular immune system interactions. An agent-based modeling (ABM) framework is proposed to study the nonlinear dynamics of acute human inflammation. The model is implemented using NetLogo software. Interacting agents involve either inflammation-specific molecules or cells essential for the propagation of the inflammatory reaction across the system. Spatial orientation of molecule interactions involved in signaling cascades coupled with the cellular heterogeneity are further taken into account. The proposed in silico model is evaluated through its ability to successfully reproduce a self-limited inflammatory response as well as a series of scenarios indicative of the nonlinear dynamics of the response. Such scenarios involve either a persistent (non)infectious response or innate immune tolerance and potentiation effects followed by perturbations in intracellular signaling molecules and cascades. The ABM framework developed in this study provides insight on the stochastic interactions of the mediators involved in the propagation of endotoxin signaling at the cellular response level. The simulation results are in accordance with our prior research effort associated with the development of deterministic human inflammation models that include transcriptional dynamics, signaling, and physiological components. The hypothetical scenarios explored in this study would potentially improve our understanding of how manipulating the behavior of the molecular species could manifest into emergent behavior of the overall system.

Propagation of uncertainties for an evaluation of the Azores-Gibraltar Fracture Zone tsunamigenic potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antoshchenkova, Ekaterina; Imbert, David; Richet, Yann; Bardet, Lise; Duluc, Claire-Marie; Rebour, Vincent; Gailler, Audrey; Hébert, Hélène

2016-04-01

The aim of this study is to assess evaluation the tsunamigenic potential of the Azores-Gibraltar Fracture Zone (AGFZ). This work is part of the French project TANDEM (Tsunamis in the Atlantic and English ChaNnel: Definition of the Effects through numerical Modeling; www-tandem.cea.fr), special attention is paid to French Atlantic coasts. Structurally, the AGFZ region is complex and not well understood. However, a lot of its faults produce earthquakes with significant vertical slip, of a type that can result in tsunami. We use the major tsunami event of the AGFZ on purpose to have a regional estimation of the tsunamigenic potential of this zone. The major reported event for this zone is the 1755 Lisbon event. There are large uncertainties concerning source location and focal mechanism of this earthquake. Hence, simple deterministic approach is not sufficient to cover on the one side the whole AGFZ with its geological complexity and on the other side the lack of information concerning the 1755 Lisbon tsunami. A parametric modeling environment Promethée (promethee.irsn.org/doku.php) was coupled to tsunami simulation software based on shallow water equations with the aim of propagation of uncertainties. Such a statistic point of view allows us to work with multiple hypotheses simultaneously. In our work we introduce the seismic source parameters in a form of distributions, thus giving a data base of thousands of tsunami scenarios and tsunami wave height distributions. Exploring our tsunami scenarios data base we present preliminary results for France. Tsunami wave heights (within one standard deviation of the mean) can be about 0.5 m - 1 m for the Atlantic coast and approaching 0.3 m for the English Channel.

Modeling heterogeneous responsiveness of intrinsic apoptosis pathway

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Apoptosis is a cell suicide mechanism that enables multicellular organisms to maintain homeostasis and to eliminate individual cells that threaten the organism’s survival. Dependent on the type of stimulus, apoptosis can be propagated by extrinsic pathway or intrinsic pathway. The comprehensive understanding of the molecular mechanism of apoptotic signaling allows for development of mathematical models, aiming to elucidate dynamical and systems properties of apoptotic signaling networks. There have been extensive efforts in modeling deterministic apoptosis network accounting for average behavior of a population of cells. Cellular networks, however, are inherently stochastic and significant cell-to-cell variability in apoptosis response has been observed at single cell level. Results To address the inevitable randomness in the intrinsic apoptosis mechanism, we develop a theoretical and computational modeling framework of intrinsic apoptosis pathway at single-cell level, accounting for both deterministic and stochastic behavior. Our deterministic model, adapted from the well-accepted Fussenegger model, shows that an additional positive feedback between the executioner caspase and the initiator caspase plays a fundamental role in yielding the desired property of bistability. We then examine the impact of intrinsic fluctuations of biochemical reactions, viewed as intrinsic noise, and natural variation of protein concentrations, viewed as extrinsic noise, on behavior of the intrinsic apoptosis network. Histograms of the steady-state output at varying input levels show that the intrinsic noise could elicit a wider region of bistability over that of the deterministic model. However, the system stochasticity due to intrinsic fluctuations, such as the noise of steady-state response and the randomness of response delay, shows that the intrinsic noise in general is insufficient to produce significant cell-to-cell variations at physiologically relevant level of molecular numbers. Furthermore, the extrinsic noise represented by random variations of two key apoptotic proteins, namely Cytochrome C and inhibitor of apoptosis proteins (IAP), is modeled separately or in combination with intrinsic noise. The resultant stochasticity in the timing of intrinsic apoptosis response shows that the fluctuating protein variations can induce cell-to-cell stochastic variability at a quantitative level agreeing with experiments. Finally, simulations illustrate that the mean abundance of fluctuating IAP protein is positively correlated with the degree of cellular stochasticity of the intrinsic apoptosis pathway. Conclusions Our theoretical and computational study shows that the pronounced non-genetic heterogeneity in intrinsic apoptosis responses among individual cells plausibly arises from extrinsic rather than intrinsic origin of fluctuations. In addition, it predicts that the IAP protein could serve as a potential therapeutic target for suppression of the cell-to-cell variation in the intrinsic apoptosis responsiveness. PMID:23875784

Large conditional single-photon cross-phase modulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, Kristin; Hosseini, Mahdi; Duan, Yiheng; Vuletic, Vladan

2016-05-01

Deterministic optical quantum logic requires a nonlinear quantum process that alters the phase of a quantum optical state by π through interaction with only one photon. Here, we demonstrate a large conditional cross-phase modulation between a signal field, stored inside an atomic quantum memory, and a control photon that traverses a high-finesse optical cavity containing the atomic memory. This approach avoids fundamental limitations associated with multimode effects for traveling optical photons. We measure a conditional cross-phase shift of up to π / 3 between the retrieved signal and control photons, and confirm deterministic entanglement between the signal and control modes by extracting a positive concurrence. With a moderate improvement in cavity finesse, our system can reach a coherent phase shift of p at low loss, enabling deterministic and universal photonic quantum logic. Preprint: arXiv:1512.02166 [quant-ph

Full 3D visualization tool-kit for Monte Carlo and deterministic transport codes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frambati, S.; Frignani, M.

2012-07-01

We propose a package of tools capable of translating the geometric inputs and outputs of many Monte Carlo and deterministic radiation transport codes into open source file formats. These tools are aimed at bridging the gap between trusted, widely-used radiation analysis codes and very powerful, more recent and commonly used visualization software, thus supporting the design process and helping with shielding optimization. Three main lines of development were followed: mesh-based analysis of Monte Carlo codes, mesh-based analysis of deterministic codes and Monte Carlo surface meshing. The developed kit is considered a powerful and cost-effective tool in the computer-aided design formore » radiation transport code users of the nuclear world, and in particular in the fields of core design and radiation analysis. (authors)« less

Deterministic error correction for nonlocal spatial-polarization hyperentanglement

PubMed Central

Li, Tao; Wang, Guan-Yu; Deng, Fu-Guo; Long, Gui-Lu

2016-01-01

Hyperentanglement is an effective quantum source for quantum communication network due to its high capacity, low loss rate, and its unusual character in teleportation of quantum particle fully. Here we present a deterministic error-correction scheme for nonlocal spatial-polarization hyperentangled photon pairs over collective-noise channels. In our scheme, the spatial-polarization hyperentanglement is first encoded into a spatial-defined time-bin entanglement with identical polarization before it is transmitted over collective-noise channels, which leads to the error rejection of the spatial entanglement during the transmission. The polarization noise affecting the polarization entanglement can be corrected with a proper one-step decoding procedure. The two parties in quantum communication can, in principle, obtain a nonlocal maximally entangled spatial-polarization hyperentanglement in a deterministic way, which makes our protocol more convenient than others in long-distance quantum communication. PMID:26861681

Deterministic error correction for nonlocal spatial-polarization hyperentanglement.

PubMed

Li, Tao; Wang, Guan-Yu; Deng, Fu-Guo; Long, Gui-Lu

2016-02-10

Hyperentanglement is an effective quantum source for quantum communication network due to its high capacity, low loss rate, and its unusual character in teleportation of quantum particle fully. Here we present a deterministic error-correction scheme for nonlocal spatial-polarization hyperentangled photon pairs over collective-noise channels. In our scheme, the spatial-polarization hyperentanglement is first encoded into a spatial-defined time-bin entanglement with identical polarization before it is transmitted over collective-noise channels, which leads to the error rejection of the spatial entanglement during the transmission. The polarization noise affecting the polarization entanglement can be corrected with a proper one-step decoding procedure. The two parties in quantum communication can, in principle, obtain a nonlocal maximally entangled spatial-polarization hyperentanglement in a deterministic way, which makes our protocol more convenient than others in long-distance quantum communication.

Effects of urban microcellular environments on ray-tracing-based coverage predictions.

PubMed

Liu, Zhongyu; Guo, Lixin; Guan, Xiaowei; Sun, Jiejing

2016-09-01

The ray-tracing (RT) algorithm, which is based on geometrical optics and the uniform theory of diffraction, has become a typical deterministic approach of studying wave-propagation characteristics. Under urban microcellular environments, the RT method highly depends on detailed environmental information. The aim of this paper is to provide help in selecting the appropriate level of accuracy required in building databases to achieve good tradeoffs between database costs and prediction accuracy. After familiarization with the operating procedures of the RT-based prediction model, this study focuses on the effect of errors in environmental information on prediction results. The environmental information consists of two parts, namely, geometric and electrical parameters. The geometric information can be obtained from a digital map of a city. To study the effects of inaccuracies in geometry information (building layout) on RT-based coverage prediction, two different artificial erroneous maps are generated based on the original digital map, and systematic analysis is performed by comparing the predictions with the erroneous maps and measurements or the predictions with the original digital map. To make the conclusion more persuasive, the influence of random errors on RMS delay spread results is investigated. Furthermore, given the electrical parameters' effect on the accuracy of the predicted results of the RT model, the dielectric constant and conductivity of building materials are set with different values. The path loss and RMS delay spread under the same circumstances are simulated by the RT prediction model.

Screening effects in flow through rough channels.

PubMed

Andrade, J S; Araújo, A D; Filoche, M; Sapoval, B

2007-05-11

A surprising similarity is found between the distribution of hydrodynamic stress on the wall of an irregular channel and the distribution of flux from a purely Laplacian field on the same geometry. This finding is a direct outcome of numerical simulations of the Navier-Stokes equations for flow at low Reynolds numbers in two-dimensional channels with rough walls presenting either deterministic or random self-similar geometries. For high Reynolds numbers, the distribution of wall stresses on deterministic and random fractal rough channels becomes substantially dependent on the microscopic details of the walls geometry. Finally, the effects on the flow behavior of the channel symmetry and aspect ratio are also investigated.

Impact of deterministic and stochastic updates on network reciprocity in the prisoner's dilemma game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanimoto, Jun

2014-08-01

In 2 × 2 prisoner's dilemma games, network reciprocity is one mechanism for adding social viscosity, which leads to cooperative equilibrium. This study introduced an intriguing framework for the strategy update rule that allows any combination of a purely deterministic method, imitation max (IM), and a purely probabilistic one, pairwise Fermi (Fermi-PW). A series of simulations covering the whole range from IM to Fermi-PW reveals that, as a general tendency, the larger fractions of stochastic updating reduce network reciprocity, so long as the underlying lattice contains no noise in the degree of distribution. However, a small amount of stochastic flavor added to an otherwise perfectly deterministic update rule was actually found to enhance network reciprocity. This occurs because a subtle stochastic effect in the update rule improves the evolutionary trail in games having more stag-hunt-type dilemmas, although the same stochastic effect degenerates evolutionary trails in games having more chicken-type dilemmas. We explain these effects by dividing evolutionary trails into the enduring and expanding periods defined by Shigaki et al. [Phys. Rev. E 86, 031141 (2012), 10.1103/PhysRevE.86.031141].

Propagation and scattering of optical light beams in free space, in atmosphere and in biological media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahin, Serkan

With their first production implemented around 1960's, lasers have afterwards proven to be excellent light sources in building the technology. Subsequently, it has been shown that the extraordinary properties of lasers are related to their coherence properties. Recent developments in optics make it possible to synthesize partially coherent light beams from fully coherent ones. In the last several decades it was seen that using partially coherent light sources may be advantageous, in the areas such as laser surface processing, fiber and free-space optical communications, and medical diagnostics. In this thesis, I study extensively the generation, the propagation in different media, and the scattering of partially coherent light beams with respect to their spectral polarization and coherence states. For instance, I analyze the evolution of recently introduced degree of cross-polarization of light fields in free space; then develop a novel partially coherent light source which acquires and keeps a flat intensity profile around the axis at any distance in the far field; and investigate the interaction of electromagnetic random light with the human eye lens. A part of the thesis treats the effect of atmospheric turbulence on random light beams. Due to random variations in the refractive index, atmospheric turbulence modulates all physical and statistical properties of propagating beams. I have explored the possibility of employing the polarimetric domain of the beam for scintillation reduction, which positively affects the performance of free-space communication systems. I also discuss novel techniques for the sensing of rough targets in the turbulent atmosphere by polarization and coherence properties of light. The other contribution to the thesis is the investigation of light scattering from deterministic or random collections of particles, within the validity of first Born approximation. In the case of a random collection, I introduce and model the new quantity (named pair-structure function) describing correlations among particles, the knowledge of which is necessary for the rigorous predictions of scattered radiation's statistics. Also, by introducing the multi-Gaussian family of functions for scattering potentials, we demonstrate a realistic model for semi-hard edges of particles and bubblelike particles.

Structural Deterministic Safety Factors Selection Criteria and Verification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Verderaime, V.

1992-01-01

Though current deterministic safety factors are arbitrarily and unaccountably specified, its ratio is rooted in resistive and applied stress probability distributions. This study approached the deterministic method from a probabilistic concept leading to a more systematic and coherent philosophy and criterion for designing more uniform and reliable high-performance structures. The deterministic method was noted to consist of three safety factors: a standard deviation multiplier of the applied stress distribution; a K-factor for the A- or B-basis material ultimate stress; and the conventional safety factor to ensure that the applied stress does not operate in the inelastic zone of metallic materials. The conventional safety factor is specifically defined as the ratio of ultimate-to-yield stresses. A deterministic safety index of the combined safety factors was derived from which the corresponding reliability proved the deterministic method is not reliability sensitive. The bases for selecting safety factors are presented and verification requirements are discussed. The suggested deterministic approach is applicable to all NASA, DOD, and commercial high-performance structures under static stresses.

Habitat connectivity and in-stream vegetation control temporal variability of benthic invertebrate communities.

PubMed

Huttunen, K-L; Mykrä, H; Oksanen, J; Astorga, A; Paavola, R; Muotka, T

2017-05-03

One of the key challenges to understanding patterns of β diversity is to disentangle deterministic patterns from stochastic ones. Stochastic processes may mask the influence of deterministic factors on community dynamics, hindering identification of the mechanisms causing variation in community composition. We studied temporal β diversity (among-year dissimilarity) of macroinvertebrate communities in near-pristine boreal streams across 14 years. To assess whether the observed β diversity deviates from that expected by chance, and to identify processes (deterministic vs. stochastic) through which different explanatory factors affect community variability, we used a null model approach. We observed that at the majority of sites temporal β diversity was low indicating high community stability. When stochastic variation was unaccounted for, connectivity was the only variable explaining temporal β diversity, with weakly connected sites exhibiting higher community variability through time. After accounting for stochastic effects, connectivity lost importance, suggesting that it was related to temporal β diversity via random colonization processes. Instead, β diversity was best explained by in-stream vegetation, community variability decreasing with increasing bryophyte cover. These results highlight the potential of stochastic factors to dampen the influence of deterministic processes, affecting our ability to understand and predict changes in biological communities through time.

Deterministic generation of remote entanglement with active quantum feedback

DOE PAGES

Martin, Leigh; Motzoi, Felix; Li, Hanhan; ...

2015-12-10

We develop and study protocols for deterministic remote entanglement generation using quantum feedback, without relying on an entangling Hamiltonian. In order to formulate the most effective experimentally feasible protocol, we introduce the notion of average-sense locally optimal feedback protocols, which do not require real-time quantum state estimation, a difficult component of real-time quantum feedback control. We use this notion of optimality to construct two protocols that can deterministically create maximal entanglement: a semiclassical feedback protocol for low-efficiency measurements and a quantum feedback protocol for high-efficiency measurements. The latter reduces to direct feedback in the continuous-time limit, whose dynamics can bemore » modeled by a Wiseman-Milburn feedback master equation, which yields an analytic solution in the limit of unit measurement efficiency. Our formalism can smoothly interpolate between continuous-time and discrete-time descriptions of feedback dynamics and we exploit this feature to derive a superior hybrid protocol for arbitrary nonunit measurement efficiency that switches between quantum and semiclassical protocols. Lastly, we show using simulations incorporating experimental imperfections that deterministic entanglement of remote superconducting qubits may be achieved with current technology using the continuous-time feedback protocol alone.« less

Application of deterministic deconvolution of ground-penetrating radar data in a study of carbonate strata

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xia, J.; Franseen, E.K.; Miller, R.D.; Weis, T.V.

2004-01-01

We successfully applied deterministic deconvolution to real ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data by using the source wavelet that was generated in and transmitted through air as the operator. The GPR data were collected with 400-MHz antennas on a bench adjacent to a cleanly exposed quarry face. The quarry site is characterized by horizontally bedded carbonate strata with shale partings. In order to provide groundtruth for this deconvolution approach, 23 conductive rods were drilled into the quarry face at key locations. The steel rods provided critical information for: (1) correlation between reflections on GPR data and geologic features exposed in the quarry face, (2) GPR resolution limits, (3) accuracy of velocities calculated from common midpoint data and (4) identifying any multiples. Comparing the results of deconvolved data with non-deconvolved data demonstrates the effectiveness of deterministic deconvolution in low dielectric-loss media for increased accuracy of velocity models (improved at least 10-15% in our study after deterministic deconvolution), increased vertical and horizontal resolution of specific geologic features and more accurate representation of geologic features as confirmed from detailed study of the adjacent quarry wall. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Implementation speed of deterministic population passages compared to that of Rabi pulses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jingwei; Wei, L. F.

2015-02-01

Fast Rabi π -pulse technique has been widely applied to various coherent quantum manipulations, although it requires precise designs of the pulse areas. Relaxing the precise pulse designs, various rapid adiabatic passage (RAP) approaches have been alternatively utilized to implement various population passages deterministically. However, the usual RAP protocol could not be implemented desirably fast, as the relevant adiabatic condition should be robustly satisfied during the passage. Here, we propose a modified shortcut to adiabaticity (STA) technique to accelerate significantly the desired deterministic quantum state population passages. This transitionless technique is beyond the usual rotating wave approximation (RWA) performed in the recent STA protocols, and thus can be applied to deliver various fast quantum evolutions wherein the relevant counter-rotating effects cannot be neglected. The proposal is demonstrated specifically with the driven two- and three-level systems. Numerical results show that with the present STA technique beyond the RWA the usual Stark-chirped RAPs and stimulated Raman adiabatic passages could be significantly speeded up; the deterministic population passages could be implemented as fast as the widely used fast Rabi π pulses, but are insensitive to the applied pulse areas.

Shielding Calculations on Waste Packages - The Limits and Possibilities of different Calculation Methods by the example of homogeneous and inhomogeneous Waste Packages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, Mike; Smalian, Silva

2017-09-01

For nuclear waste packages the expected dose rates and nuclide inventory are beforehand calculated. Depending on the package of the nuclear waste deterministic programs like MicroShield® provide a range of results for each type of packaging. Stochastic programs like "Monte-Carlo N-Particle Transport Code System" (MCNP®) on the other hand provide reliable results for complex geometries. However this type of program requires a fully trained operator and calculations are time consuming. The problem here is to choose an appropriate program for a specific geometry. Therefore we compared the results of deterministic programs like MicroShield® and stochastic programs like MCNP®. These comparisons enable us to make a statement about the applicability of the various programs for chosen types of containers. As a conclusion we found that for thin-walled geometries deterministic programs like MicroShield® are well suited to calculate the dose rate. For cylindrical containers with inner shielding however, deterministic programs hit their limits. Furthermore we investigate the effect of an inhomogeneous material and activity distribution on the results. The calculations are still ongoing. Results will be presented in the final abstract.

Effect of nonlinearity in hybrid kinetic Monte Carlo-continuum models.

PubMed

Balter, Ariel; Lin, Guang; Tartakovsky, Alexandre M

2012-01-01

Recently there has been interest in developing efficient ways to model heterogeneous surface reactions with hybrid computational models that couple a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model for a surface to a finite-difference model for bulk diffusion in a continuous domain. We consider two representative problems that validate a hybrid method and show that this method captures the combined effects of nonlinearity and stochasticity. We first validate a simple deposition-dissolution model with a linear rate showing that the KMC-continuum hybrid agrees with both a fully deterministic model and its analytical solution. We then study a deposition-dissolution model including competitive adsorption, which leads to a nonlinear rate, and show that in this case the KMC-continuum hybrid and fully deterministic simulations do not agree. However, we are able to identify the difference as a natural result of the stochasticity coming from the KMC surface process. Because KMC captures inherent fluctuations, we consider it to be more realistic than a purely deterministic model. Therefore, we consider the KMC-continuum hybrid to be more representative of a real system.

Effect of Nonlinearity in Hybrid Kinetic Monte Carlo-Continuum Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Balter, Ariel I.; Lin, Guang; Tartakovsky, Alexandre M.

2012-04-23

Recently there has been interest in developing efficient ways to model heterogeneous surface reactions with hybrid computational models that couple a KMC model for a surface to a finite difference model for bulk diffusion in a continuous domain. We consider two representative problems that validate a hybrid method and also show that this method captures the combined effects of nonlinearity and stochasticity. We first validate a simple deposition/dissolution model with a linear rate showing that the KMC-continuum hybrid agrees with both a fully deterministic model and its analytical solution. We then study a deposition/dissolution model including competitive adsorption, which leadsmore » to a nonlinear rate, and show that, in this case, the KMC-continuum hybrid and fully deterministic simulations do not agree. However, we are able to identify the difference as a natural result of the stochasticity coming from the KMC surface process. Because KMC captures inherent fluctuations, we consider it to be more realistic than a purely deterministic model. Therefore, we consider the KMC-continuum hybrid to be more representative of a real system.« less

Effects of Noise on Ecological Invasion Processes: Bacteriophage-mediated Competition in Bacteria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joo, Jaewook; Eric, Harvill; Albert, Reka

2007-03-01

Pathogen-mediated competition, through which an invasive species carrying and transmitting a pathogen can be a superior competitor to a more vulnerable resident species, is one of the principle driving forces influencing biodiversity in nature. Using an experimental system of bacteriophage-mediated competition in bacterial populations and a deterministic model, we have shown in [Joo et al 2005] that the competitive advantage conferred by the phage depends only on the relative phage pathology and is independent of the initial phage concentration and other phage and host parameters such as the infection-causing contact rate, the spontaneous and infection-induced lysis rates, and the phage burst size. Here we investigate the effects of stochastic fluctuations on bacterial invasion facilitated by bacteriophage, and examine the validity of the deterministic approach. We use both numerical and analytical methods of stochastic processes to identify the source of noise and assess its magnitude. We show that the conclusions obtained from the deterministic model are robust against stochastic fluctuations, yet deviations become prominently large when the phage are more pathological to the invading bacterial strain.

Robust planning of dynamic wireless charging infrastructure for battery electric buses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Zhaocai; Song, Ziqi

Battery electric buses with zero tailpipe emissions have great potential in improving environmental sustainability and livability of urban areas. However, the problems of high cost and limited range associated with on-board batteries have substantially limited the popularity of battery electric buses. The technology of dynamic wireless power transfer (DWPT), which provides bus operators with the ability to charge buses while in motion, may be able to effectively alleviate the drawbacks of electric buses. In this paper, we address the problem of simultaneously selecting the optimal location of the DWPT facilities and designing the optimal battery sizes of electric buses formore » a DWPT electric bus system. The problem is first constructed as a deterministic model in which the uncertainty of energy consumption and travel time of electric buses is neglected. The methodology of robust optimization (RO) is then adopted to address the uncertainty of energy consumption and travel time. The affinely adjustable robust counterpart (AARC) of the deterministic model is developed, and its equivalent tractable mathematical programming is derived. Both the deterministic model and the robust model are demonstrated with a real-world bus system. The results of our study demonstrate that the proposed deterministic model can effectively determine the allocation of DWPT facilities and the battery sizes of electric buses for a DWPT electric bus system; and the robust model can further provide optimal designs that are robust against the uncertainty of energy consumption and travel time for electric buses.« less

Robust planning of dynamic wireless charging infrastructure for battery electric buses

DOE PAGES

Liu, Zhaocai; Song, Ziqi

2017-10-01

Battery electric buses with zero tailpipe emissions have great potential in improving environmental sustainability and livability of urban areas. However, the problems of high cost and limited range associated with on-board batteries have substantially limited the popularity of battery electric buses. The technology of dynamic wireless power transfer (DWPT), which provides bus operators with the ability to charge buses while in motion, may be able to effectively alleviate the drawbacks of electric buses. In this paper, we address the problem of simultaneously selecting the optimal location of the DWPT facilities and designing the optimal battery sizes of electric buses formore » a DWPT electric bus system. The problem is first constructed as a deterministic model in which the uncertainty of energy consumption and travel time of electric buses is neglected. The methodology of robust optimization (RO) is then adopted to address the uncertainty of energy consumption and travel time. The affinely adjustable robust counterpart (AARC) of the deterministic model is developed, and its equivalent tractable mathematical programming is derived. Both the deterministic model and the robust model are demonstrated with a real-world bus system. The results of our study demonstrate that the proposed deterministic model can effectively determine the allocation of DWPT facilities and the battery sizes of electric buses for a DWPT electric bus system; and the robust model can further provide optimal designs that are robust against the uncertainty of energy consumption and travel time for electric buses.« less

A Random Variable Approach to Nuclear Targeting and Survivability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Undem, Halvor A.

We demonstrate a common mathematical formalism for analyzing problems in nuclear survivability and targeting. This formalism, beginning with a random variable approach, can be used to interpret past efforts in nuclear-effects analysis, including targeting analysis. It can also be used to analyze new problems brought about by the post Cold War Era, such as the potential effects of yield degradation in a permanently untested nuclear stockpile. In particular, we illustrate the formalism through four natural case studies or illustrative problems, linking these to actual past data, modeling, and simulation, and suggesting future uses. In the first problem, we illustrate themore » case of a deterministically modeled weapon used against a deterministically responding target. Classic "Cookie Cutter" damage functions result. In the second problem, we illustrate, with actual target test data, the case of a deterministically modeled weapon used against a statistically responding target. This case matches many of the results of current nuclear targeting modeling and simulation tools, including the result of distance damage functions as complementary cumulative lognormal functions in the range variable. In the third problem, we illustrate the case of a statistically behaving weapon used against a deterministically responding target. In particular, we show the dependence of target damage on weapon yield for an untested nuclear stockpile experiencing yield degradation. Finally, and using actual unclassified weapon test data, we illustrate in the fourth problem the case of a statistically behaving weapon used against a statistically responding target.« less

Stochastic Seismic Response of an Algiers Site with Random Depth to Bedrock

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Badaoui, M.; Mebarki, A.; Berrah, M. K.

2010-05-21

Among the important effects of the Boumerdes earthquake (Algeria, May 21{sup st} 2003) was that, within the same zone, the destructions in certain parts were more important than in others. This phenomenon is due to site effects which alter the characteristics of seismic motions and cause concentration of damage during earthquakes. Local site effects such as thickness and mechanical properties of soil layers have important effects on the surface ground motions.This paper deals with the effect of the randomness aspect of the depth to bedrock (soil layers heights) which is assumed to be a random variable with lognormal distribution. Thismore » distribution is suitable for strictly non-negative random variables with large values of the coefficient of variation. In this case, Monte Carlo simulations are combined with the stiffness matrix method, used herein as a deterministic method, for evaluating the effect of the depth to bedrock uncertainty on the seismic response of a multilayered soil. This study considers a P and SV wave propagation pattern using input accelerations collected at Keddara station, located at 20 km from the epicenter, as it is located directly on the bedrock.A parametric study is conducted do derive the stochastic behavior of the peak ground acceleration and its response spectrum, the transfer function and the amplification factors. It is found that the soil height heterogeneity causes a widening of the frequency content and an increase in the fundamental frequency of the soil profile, indicating that the resonance phenomenon concerns a larger number of structures.« less

Probabilistic vs. deterministic fiber tracking and the influence of different seed regions to delineate cerebellar-thalamic fibers in deep brain stimulation.

PubMed

Schlaier, Juergen R; Beer, Anton L; Faltermeier, Rupert; Fellner, Claudia; Steib, Kathrin; Lange, Max; Greenlee, Mark W; Brawanski, Alexander T; Anthofer, Judith M

2017-06-01

This study compared tractography approaches for identifying cerebellar-thalamic fiber bundles relevant to planning target sites for deep brain stimulation (DBS). In particular, probabilistic and deterministic tracking of the dentate-rubro-thalamic tract (DRTT) and differences between the spatial courses of the DRTT and the cerebello-thalamo-cortical (CTC) tract were compared. Six patients with movement disorders were examined by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), including two sets of diffusion-weighted images (12 and 64 directions). Probabilistic and deterministic tractography was applied on each diffusion-weighted dataset to delineate the DRTT. Results were compared with regard to their sensitivity in revealing the DRTT and additional fiber tracts and processing time. Two sets of regions-of-interests (ROIs) guided deterministic tractography of the DRTT or the CTC, respectively. Tract distances to an atlas-based reference target were compared. Probabilistic fiber tracking with 64 orientations detected the DRTT in all twelve hemispheres. Deterministic tracking detected the DRTT in nine (12 directions) and in only two (64 directions) hemispheres. Probabilistic tracking was more sensitive in detecting additional fibers (e.g. ansa lenticularis and medial forebrain bundle) than deterministic tracking. Probabilistic tracking lasted substantially longer than deterministic. Deterministic tracking was more sensitive in detecting the CTC than the DRTT. CTC tracts were located adjacent but consistently more posterior to DRTT tracts. These results suggest that probabilistic tracking is more sensitive and robust in detecting the DRTT but harder to implement than deterministic approaches. Although sensitivity of deterministic tracking is higher for the CTC than the DRTT, targets for DBS based on these tracts likely differ. © 2017 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Adequacy assessment of composite generation and transmission systems incorporating wind energy conversion systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Yi

The development and utilization of wind energy for satisfying electrical demand has received considerable attention in recent years due to its tremendous environmental, social and economic benefits, together with public support and government incentives. Electric power generation from wind energy behaves quite differently from that of conventional sources. The fundamentally different operating characteristics of wind energy facilities therefore affect power system reliability in a different manner than those of conventional systems. The reliability impact of such a highly variable energy source is an important aspect that must be assessed when the wind power penetration is significant. The focus of the research described in this thesis is on the utilization of state sampling Monte Carlo simulation in wind integrated bulk electric system reliability analysis and the application of these concepts in system planning and decision making. Load forecast uncertainty is an important factor in long range planning and system development. This thesis describes two approximate approaches developed to reduce the number of steps in a load duration curve which includes load forecast uncertainty, and to provide reasonably accurate generating and bulk system reliability index predictions. The developed approaches are illustrated by application to two composite test systems. A method of generating correlated random numbers with uniform distributions and a specified correlation coefficient in the state sampling method is proposed and used to conduct adequacy assessment in generating systems and in bulk electric systems containing correlated wind farms in this thesis. The studies described show that it is possible to use the state sampling Monte Carlo simulation technique to quantitatively assess the reliability implications associated with adding wind power to a composite generation and transmission system including the effects of multiple correlated wind sites. This is an important development as it permits correlated wind farms to be incorporated in large practical system studies without requiring excessive increases in computer solution time. The procedures described in this thesis for creating monthly and seasonal wind farm models should prove useful in situations where time period models are required to incorporate scheduled maintenance of generation and transmission facilities. There is growing interest in combining deterministic considerations with probabilistic assessment in order to evaluate the quantitative system risk and conduct bulk power system planning. A relatively new approach that incorporates deterministic and probabilistic considerations in a single risk assessment framework has been designated as the joint deterministic-probabilistic approach. The research work described in this thesis illustrates that the joint deterministic-probabilistic approach can be effectively used to integrate wind power in bulk electric system planning. The studies described in this thesis show that the application of the joint deterministic-probabilistic method provides more stringent results for a system with wind power than the traditional deterministic N-1 method because the joint deterministic-probabilistic technique is driven by the deterministic N-1 criterion with an added probabilistic perspective which recognizes the power output characteristics of a wind turbine generator.

Generation of deterministic tsunami hazard maps in the Bay of Cadiz, south-west Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Álvarez-Gómez, J. A.; Otero, L.; Olabarrieta, M.; González, M.; Carreño, E.; Baptista, M. A.; Miranda, J. M.; Medina, R.; Lima, V.

2009-04-01

The bay of Cádiz is a densely populated and industrialized area, and an important centre of tourism which multiplies its population in the summer months. This bay is situated in the Gulf of Cádiz, the south-west Atlantic margin of the Iberian Peninsula. From a tectonic point of view this area can be defined as a diffuse plate boundary, comprising the eastern edge of the Gloria and Tydeman transforms (where the deformation is mainly concentrated in these shear corridors), the Gorringe Bank, the Horseshoe Abyssal plain, the Portimao and Guadalquivir banks, and the western termination of the arcuated Gibraltar Arc. This deformation zone is the eastern edge of the Azores - Gibraltar seismic zone, being the present day boundary between the Eurasian and African plates. The motion between the plates is mainly convergent in the Gulf of Cádiz, but gradually changes to almost pure transcurrent along the Gloria Fault. The relative motion between the two plates is of the order of 4-5 mm/yr. In order to define the different tsunamigenic zones and to characterize its worst tsunamigenic source we have used seismic, structural and geological data. The numerical model used to simulate the wave propagation and coastal inundation is the C3 (Cantabria, COMCOT and Tsunami-Claw) model. C3 is a hybrid finite difference-finite volume method which balances between efficiency and accuracy. For offshore domain in deep waters the model applies an explicit finite difference scheme (FD), which is computationally fast and accurate in large grids. For near coast domains in coastal areas, it applies a finite volume scheme (VOF). It solves correctly the bore formation and the bore propagation. It is very effective solving the run-up and the run down. A set of five worst case tsunamigenic sources has been used with four different sea levels (minimum tide, most probable low tide, most probable high tide and maximum tide), in order to produce the following thematic maps with the C3 model: maximum free surface elevation, maximum water depth, maximum current speed, maximum Froude number and maximum impact forces (hydrostatic and dynamic forces). The fault rupture and sea bottom displacement has been computed by means of the Okada equations. As result, a set of more than 100 deterministic thematic maps have been created in a GIS environment incorporating geographical data and high resolution orthorectified satellite images. These thematic maps form an atlas of inundation maps that will be distributed to different government authorities and civil protection and emergency agencies. The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support provided by the EU under the frame of the European Project TRANSFER (Tsunami Risk And Strategies For the European Region), 6th Framework Programme.

Effect of quantum noise on deterministic remote state preparation of an arbitrary two-particle state via various quantum entangled channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qu, Zhiguo; Wu, Shengyao; Wang, Mingming; Sun, Le; Wang, Xiaojun

2017-12-01

As one of important research branches of quantum communication, deterministic remote state preparation (DRSP) plays a significant role in quantum network. Quantum noises are prevalent in quantum communication, and it can seriously affect the safety and reliability of quantum communication system. In this paper, we study the effect of quantum noise on deterministic remote state preparation of an arbitrary two-particle state via different quantum channels including the χ state, Brown state and GHZ state. Firstly, the output states and fidelities of three DRSP algorithms via different quantum entangled channels in four noisy environments, including amplitude-damping, phase-damping, bit-flip and depolarizing noise, are presented, respectively. And then, the effects of noises on three kinds of preparation algorithms in the same noisy environment are discussed. In final, the theoretical analysis proves that the effect of noise in the process of quantum state preparation is only related to the noise type and the size of noise factor and independent of the different entangled quantum channels. Furthermore, another important conclusion is given that the effect of noise is also independent of how to distribute intermediate particles for implementing DRSP through quantum measurement during the concrete preparation process. These conclusions will be very helpful for improving the efficiency and safety of quantum communication in a noisy environment.

Three-dimensional single-cell imaging with X-ray waveguides in the holographic regime

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krenkel, Martin; Toepperwien, Mareike; Alves, Frauke

X-ray tomography at the level of single biological cells is possible in a low-dose regime, based on full-field holographic recordings, with phase contrast originating from free-space wave propagation. Building upon recent progress in cellular imaging based on the illumination by quasi-point sources provided by X-ray waveguides, here this approach is extended in several ways. First, the phase-retrieval algorithms are extended by an optimized deterministic inversion, based on a multi-distance recording. Second, different advanced forms of iterative phase retrieval are used, operational for single-distance and multi-distance recordings. Results are compared for several different preparations of macrophage cells, for different staining andmore » labelling. As a result, it is shown that phase retrieval is no longer a bottleneck for holographic imaging of cells, and how advanced schemes can be implemented to cope also with high noise and inconsistencies in the data.« less

Probabilistic finite elements for transient analysis in nonlinear continua

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, W. K.; Belytschko, T.; Mani, A.

1985-01-01

The probabilistic finite element method (PFEM), which is a combination of finite element methods and second-moment analysis, is formulated for linear and nonlinear continua with inhomogeneous random fields. Analogous to the discretization of the displacement field in finite element methods, the random field is also discretized. The formulation is simplified by transforming the correlated variables to a set of uncorrelated variables through an eigenvalue orthogonalization. Furthermore, it is shown that a reduced set of the uncorrelated variables is sufficient for the second-moment analysis. Based on the linear formulation of the PFEM, the method is then extended to transient analysis in nonlinear continua. The accuracy and efficiency of the method is demonstrated by application to a one-dimensional, elastic/plastic wave propagation problem. The moments calculated compare favorably with those obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. Also, the procedure is amenable to implementation in deterministic FEM based computer programs.

Three-dimensional single-cell imaging with X-ray waveguides in the holographic regime

DOE PAGES

Krenkel, Martin; Toepperwien, Mareike; Alves, Frauke; ...

2017-06-29

X-ray tomography at the level of single biological cells is possible in a low-dose regime, based on full-field holographic recordings, with phase contrast originating from free-space wave propagation. Building upon recent progress in cellular imaging based on the illumination by quasi-point sources provided by X-ray waveguides, here this approach is extended in several ways. First, the phase-retrieval algorithms are extended by an optimized deterministic inversion, based on a multi-distance recording. Second, different advanced forms of iterative phase retrieval are used, operational for single-distance and multi-distance recordings. Results are compared for several different preparations of macrophage cells, for different staining andmore » labelling. As a result, it is shown that phase retrieval is no longer a bottleneck for holographic imaging of cells, and how advanced schemes can be implemented to cope also with high noise and inconsistencies in the data.« less

An extension of stochastic hierarchy equations of motion for the equilibrium correlation functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ke, Yaling; Zhao, Yi

2017-06-01

A traditional stochastic hierarchy equations of motion method is extended into the correlated real-time and imaginary-time propagations, in this paper, for its applications in calculating the equilibrium correlation functions. The central idea is based on a combined employment of stochastic unravelling and hierarchical techniques for the temperature-dependent and temperature-free parts of the influence functional, respectively, in the path integral formalism of the open quantum systems coupled to a harmonic bath. The feasibility and validity of the proposed method are justified in the emission spectra of homodimer compared to those obtained through the deterministic hierarchy equations of motion. Besides, it is interesting to find that the complex noises generated from a small portion of real-time and imaginary-time cross terms can be safely dropped to produce the stable and accurate position and flux correlation functions in a broad parameter regime.

Multi-objective robust design of energy-absorbing components using coupled process-performance simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najafi, Ali; Acar, Erdem; Rais-Rohani, Masoud

2014-02-01

The stochastic uncertainties associated with the material, process and product are represented and propagated to process and performance responses. A finite element-based sequential coupled process-performance framework is used to simulate the forming and energy absorption responses of a thin-walled tube in a manner that both material properties and component geometry can evolve from one stage to the next for better prediction of the structural performance measures. Metamodelling techniques are used to develop surrogate models for manufacturing and performance responses. One set of metamodels relates the responses to the random variables whereas the other relates the mean and standard deviation of the responses to the selected design variables. A multi-objective robust design optimization problem is formulated and solved to illustrate the methodology and the influence of uncertainties on manufacturability and energy absorption of a metallic double-hat tube. The results are compared with those of deterministic and augmented robust optimization problems.

Hybrid stochastic and deterministic simulations of calcium blips.

PubMed

Rüdiger, S; Shuai, J W; Huisinga, W; Nagaiah, C; Warnecke, G; Parker, I; Falcke, M

2007-09-15

Intracellular calcium release is a prime example for the role of stochastic effects in cellular systems. Recent models consist of deterministic reaction-diffusion equations coupled to stochastic transitions of calcium channels. The resulting dynamics is of multiple time and spatial scales, which complicates far-reaching computer simulations. In this article, we introduce a novel hybrid scheme that is especially tailored to accurately trace events with essential stochastic variations, while deterministic concentration variables are efficiently and accurately traced at the same time. We use finite elements to efficiently resolve the extreme spatial gradients of concentration variables close to a channel. We describe the algorithmic approach and we demonstrate its efficiency compared to conventional methods. Our single-channel model matches experimental data and results in intriguing dynamics if calcium is used as charge carrier. Random openings of the channel accumulate in bursts of calcium blips that may be central for the understanding of cellular calcium dynamics.

A Stochastic Tick-Borne Disease Model: Exploring the Probability of Pathogen Persistence.

PubMed

Maliyoni, Milliward; Chirove, Faraimunashe; Gaff, Holly D; Govinder, Keshlan S

2017-09-01

We formulate and analyse a stochastic epidemic model for the transmission dynamics of a tick-borne disease in a single population using a continuous-time Markov chain approach. The stochastic model is based on an existing deterministic metapopulation tick-borne disease model. We compare the disease dynamics of the deterministic and stochastic models in order to determine the effect of randomness in tick-borne disease dynamics. The probability of disease extinction and that of a major outbreak are computed and approximated using the multitype Galton-Watson branching process and numerical simulations, respectively. Analytical and numerical results show some significant differences in model predictions between the stochastic and deterministic models. In particular, we find that a disease outbreak is more likely if the disease is introduced by infected deer as opposed to infected ticks. These insights demonstrate the importance of host movement in the expansion of tick-borne diseases into new geographic areas.

Large conditional single-photon cross-phase modulation

PubMed Central

Hosseini, Mahdi; Duan, Yiheng; Vuletić, Vladan

2016-01-01

Deterministic optical quantum logic requires a nonlinear quantum process that alters the phase of a quantum optical state by π through interaction with only one photon. Here, we demonstrate a large conditional cross-phase modulation between a signal field, stored inside an atomic quantum memory, and a control photon that traverses a high-finesse optical cavity containing the atomic memory. This approach avoids fundamental limitations associated with multimode effects for traveling optical photons. We measure a conditional cross-phase shift of π/6 (and up to π/3 by postselection on photons that remain in the system longer than average) between the retrieved signal and control photons, and confirm deterministic entanglement between the signal and control modes by extracting a positive concurrence. By upgrading to a state-of-the-art cavity, our system can reach a coherent phase shift of π at low loss, enabling deterministic and universal photonic quantum logic. PMID:27519798

Dynamical signatures of isometric force control as a function of age, expertise, and task constraints.

PubMed

Vieluf, Solveig; Sleimen-Malkoun, Rita; Voelcker-Rehage, Claudia; Jirsa, Viktor; Reuter, Eva-Maria; Godde, Ben; Temprado, Jean-Jacques; Huys, Raoul

2017-07-01

From the conceptual and methodological framework of the dynamical systems approach, force control results from complex interactions of various subsystems yielding observable behavioral fluctuations, which comprise both deterministic (predictable) and stochastic (noise-like) dynamical components. Here, we investigated these components contributing to the observed variability in force control in groups of participants differing in age and expertise level. To this aim, young (18-25 yr) as well as late middle-aged (55-65 yr) novices and experts (precision mechanics) performed a force maintenance and a force modulation task. Results showed that whereas the amplitude of force variability did not differ across groups in the maintenance tasks, in the modulation task it was higher for late middle-aged novices than for experts and higher for both these groups than for young participants. Within both tasks and for all groups, stochastic fluctuations were lowest where the deterministic influence was smallest. However, although all groups showed similar dynamics underlying force control in the maintenance task, a group effect was found for deterministic and stochastic fluctuations in the modulation task. The latter findings imply that both components were involved in the observed group differences in the variability of force fluctuations in the modulation task. These findings suggest that between groups the general characteristics of the dynamics do not differ in either task and that force control is more affected by age than by expertise. However, expertise seems to counteract some of the age effects. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Stochastic and deterministic dynamical components contribute to force production. Dynamical signatures differ between force maintenance and cyclic force modulation tasks but hardly between age and expertise groups. Differences in both stochastic and deterministic components are associated with group differences in behavioral variability, and observed behavioral variability is more strongly task dependent than person dependent. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Physical limits on ground motion at Yucca Mountain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andrews, D.J.; Hanks, T.C.; Whitney, J.W.

2007-01-01

Physical limits on possible maximum ground motion at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the designated site of a high-level radioactive waste repository, are set by the shear stress available in the seismogenic depth of the crust and by limits on stress change that can propagate through the medium. We find in dynamic deterministic 2D calculations that maximum possible horizontal peak ground velocity (PGV) at the underground repository site is 3.6 m/sec, which is smaller than the mean PGV predicted by the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) at annual exceedance probabilities less than 10-6 per year. The physical limit on vertical PGV, 5.7 m/sec, arises from supershear rupture and is larger than that from the PSHA down to 10-8 per year. In addition to these physical limits, we also calculate the maximum ground motion subject to the constraint of known fault slip at the surface, as inferred from paleoseismic studies. Using a published probabilistic fault displacement hazard curve, these calculations provide a probabilistic hazard curve for horizontal PGV that is lower than that from the PSHA. In all cases the maximum ground motion at the repository site is found by maximizing constructive interference of signals from the rupture front, for physically realizable rupture velocity, from all parts of the fault. Vertical PGV is maximized for ruptures propagating near the P-wave speed, and horizontal PGV is maximized for ruptures propagating near the Rayleigh-wave speed. Yielding in shear with a Mohr-Coulomb yield condition reduces ground motion only a modest amount in events with supershear rupture velocity, because ground motion consists primarily of P waves in that case. The possibility of compaction of the porous unsaturated tuffs at the higher ground-motion levels is another attenuating mechanism that needs to be investigated.

Synergistic effects in threshold models on networks.

PubMed

Juul, Jonas S; Porter, Mason A

2018-01-01

Network structure can have a significant impact on the propagation of diseases, memes, and information on social networks. Different types of spreading processes (and other dynamical processes) are affected by network architecture in different ways, and it is important to develop tractable models of spreading processes on networks to explore such issues. In this paper, we incorporate the idea of synergy into a two-state ("active" or "passive") threshold model of social influence on networks. Our model's update rule is deterministic, and the influence of each meme-carrying (i.e., active) neighbor can-depending on a parameter-either be enhanced or inhibited by an amount that depends on the number of active neighbors of a node. Such a synergistic system models social behavior in which the willingness to adopt either accelerates or saturates in a way that depends on the number of neighbors who have adopted that behavior. We illustrate that our model's synergy parameter has a crucial effect on system dynamics, as it determines whether degree-k nodes are possible or impossible to activate. We simulate synergistic meme spreading on both random-graph models and networks constructed from empirical data. Using a heterogeneous mean-field approximation, which we derive under the assumption that a network is locally tree-like, we are able to determine which synergy-parameter values allow degree-k nodes to be activated for many networks and for a broad family of synergistic models.

Synergistic effects in threshold models on networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juul, Jonas S.; Porter, Mason A.

2018-01-01

Network structure can have a significant impact on the propagation of diseases, memes, and information on social networks. Different types of spreading processes (and other dynamical processes) are affected by network architecture in different ways, and it is important to develop tractable models of spreading processes on networks to explore such issues. In this paper, we incorporate the idea of synergy into a two-state ("active" or "passive") threshold model of social influence on networks. Our model's update rule is deterministic, and the influence of each meme-carrying (i.e., active) neighbor can—depending on a parameter—either be enhanced or inhibited by an amount that depends on the number of active neighbors of a node. Such a synergistic system models social behavior in which the willingness to adopt either accelerates or saturates in a way that depends on the number of neighbors who have adopted that behavior. We illustrate that our model's synergy parameter has a crucial effect on system dynamics, as it determines whether degree-k nodes are possible or impossible to activate. We simulate synergistic meme spreading on both random-graph models and networks constructed from empirical data. Using a heterogeneous mean-field approximation, which we derive under the assumption that a network is locally tree-like, we are able to determine which synergy-parameter values allow degree-k nodes to be activated for many networks and for a broad family of synergistic models.

Grizzly Staus Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spencer, Benjamin; Zhang, Yongfeng; Chakraborty, Pritam

2014-09-01

This report summarizes work during FY 2014 to develop capabilities to predict embrittlement of reactor pressure vessel steel, and to assess the response of embrittled reactor pressure vessels to postulated accident conditions. This work has been conducted a three length scales. At the engineering scale, 3D fracture mechanics capabilities have been developed to calculate stress intensities and fracture toughnesses, to perform a deterministic assessment of whether a crack would propagate at the location of an existing flaw. This capability has been demonstrated on several types of flaws in a generic reactor pressure vessel model. Models have been developed at themore » scale of fracture specimens to develop a capability to determine how irradiation affects the fracture toughness of material. Verification work has been performed on a previously-developed model to determine the sensitivity of the model to specimen geometry and size effects. The effects of irradiation on the parameters of this model has been investigated. At lower length scales, work has continued in an ongoing to understand how irradiation and thermal aging affect the microstructure and mechanical properties of reactor pressure vessel steel. Previously-developed atomistic kinetic monte carlo models have been further developed and benchmarked against experimental data. Initial work has been performed to develop models of nucleation in a phase field model. Additional modeling work has also been performed to improve the fundamental understanding of the formation mechanisms and stability of matrix defects caused.« less

Adaptation to Temporally Fluctuating Environments by the Evolution of Maternal Effects.

PubMed

Dey, Snigdhadip; Proulx, Stephen R; Teotónio, Henrique

2016-02-01

All organisms live in temporally fluctuating environments. Theory predicts that the evolution of deterministic maternal effects (i.e., anticipatory maternal effects or transgenerational phenotypic plasticity) underlies adaptation to environments that fluctuate in a predictably alternating fashion over maternal-offspring generations. In contrast, randomizing maternal effects (i.e., diversifying and conservative bet-hedging), are expected to evolve in response to unpredictably fluctuating environments. Although maternal effects are common, evidence for their adaptive significance is equivocal since they can easily evolve as a correlated response to maternal selection and may or may not increase the future fitness of offspring. Using the hermaphroditic nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, we here show that the experimental evolution of maternal glycogen provisioning underlies adaptation to a fluctuating normoxia-anoxia hatching environment by increasing embryo survival under anoxia. In strictly alternating environments, we found that hermaphrodites evolved the ability to increase embryo glycogen provisioning when they experienced normoxia and to decrease embryo glycogen provisioning when they experienced anoxia. At odds with existing theory, however, populations facing irregularly fluctuating normoxia-anoxia hatching environments failed to evolve randomizing maternal effects. Instead, adaptation in these populations may have occurred through the evolution of fitness effects that percolate over multiple generations, as they maintained considerably high expected growth rates during experimental evolution despite evolving reduced fecundity and reduced embryo survival under one or two generations of anoxia. We develop theoretical models that explain why adaptation to a wide range of patterns of environmental fluctuations hinges on the existence of deterministic maternal effects, and that such deterministic maternal effects are more likely to contribute to adaptation than randomizing maternal effects.

Adaptation to Temporally Fluctuating Environments by the Evolution of Maternal Effects

PubMed Central

Dey, Snigdhadip; Proulx, Stephen R.; Teotónio, Henrique

2016-01-01

All organisms live in temporally fluctuating environments. Theory predicts that the evolution of deterministic maternal effects (i.e., anticipatory maternal effects or transgenerational phenotypic plasticity) underlies adaptation to environments that fluctuate in a predictably alternating fashion over maternal-offspring generations. In contrast, randomizing maternal effects (i.e., diversifying and conservative bet-hedging), are expected to evolve in response to unpredictably fluctuating environments. Although maternal effects are common, evidence for their adaptive significance is equivocal since they can easily evolve as a correlated response to maternal selection and may or may not increase the future fitness of offspring. Using the hermaphroditic nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, we here show that the experimental evolution of maternal glycogen provisioning underlies adaptation to a fluctuating normoxia–anoxia hatching environment by increasing embryo survival under anoxia. In strictly alternating environments, we found that hermaphrodites evolved the ability to increase embryo glycogen provisioning when they experienced normoxia and to decrease embryo glycogen provisioning when they experienced anoxia. At odds with existing theory, however, populations facing irregularly fluctuating normoxia–anoxia hatching environments failed to evolve randomizing maternal effects. Instead, adaptation in these populations may have occurred through the evolution of fitness effects that percolate over multiple generations, as they maintained considerably high expected growth rates during experimental evolution despite evolving reduced fecundity and reduced embryo survival under one or two generations of anoxia. We develop theoretical models that explain why adaptation to a wide range of patterns of environmental fluctuations hinges on the existence of deterministic maternal effects, and that such deterministic maternal effects are more likely to contribute to adaptation than randomizing maternal effects. PMID:26910440

Probabilistic analysis of the torsional effects on the tall building resistance due to earthquake even

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Králik, Juraj; Králik, Juraj

2017-07-01

The paper presents the results from the deterministic and probabilistic analysis of the accidental torsional effect of reinforced concrete tall buildings due to earthquake even. The core-column structural system was considered with various configurations in plane. The methodology of the seismic analysis of the building structures in Eurocode 8 and JCSS 2000 is discussed. The possibilities of the utilization the LHS method to analyze the extensive and robust tasks in FEM is presented. The influence of the various input parameters (material, geometry, soil, masses and others) is considered. The deterministic and probability analysis of the seismic resistance of the structure was calculated in the ANSYS program.

The threshold of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with vaccination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qun; Jiang, Daqing

2016-11-01

In this paper, we study the threshold dynamics of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with vaccination. We obtain sufficient conditions for extinction and persistence in the mean of the epidemic. The threshold between persistence in the mean and extinction of the stochastic system is also obtained. Compared with the corresponding deterministic model, the threshold affected by the white noise is smaller than the basic reproduction number Rbar0 of the deterministic system. Results show that time delay has important effects on the persistence and extinction of the epidemic.

Deterministic quantum dense coding networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Saptarshi; Chanda, Titas; Das, Tamoghna; Sen(De), Aditi; Sen, Ujjwal

2018-07-01

We consider the scenario of deterministic classical information transmission between multiple senders and a single receiver, when they a priori share a multipartite quantum state - an attempt towards building a deterministic dense coding network. Specifically, we prove that in the case of two or three senders and a single receiver, generalized Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger (gGHZ) states are not beneficial for sending classical information deterministically beyond the classical limit, except when the shared state is the GHZ state itself. On the other hand, three- and four-qubit generalized W (gW) states with specific parameters as well as the four-qubit Dicke states can provide a quantum advantage of sending the information in deterministic dense coding. Interestingly however, numerical simulations in the three-qubit scenario reveal that the percentage of states from the GHZ-class that are deterministic dense codeable is higher than that of states from the W-class.

Spatial Statistics of the Clark County Parcel Map, Trial Geotechnical Models, and Effects on Ground Motions in Las Vegas Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savran, W. H.; Louie, J. N.; Pullammanappallil, S.; Pancha, A.

2011-12-01

When deterministically modeling the propagation of seismic waves, shallow shear-wave velocity plays a crucial role in predicting shaking effects such as peak ground velocity (PGV). The Clark County Parcel Map provides us with a data set of geotechnical velocities in Las Vegas Valley, at an unprecedented level of detail. Las Vegas Valley is a basin with similar geologic properties to some areas of Southern California. We analyze elementary spatial statistical properties of the Parcel Map, along with calculating its spatial variability. We then investigate these spatial statistics from the PGV results computed from two geotechnical models that incorporate the Parcel Map as parameters. Plotting a histogram of the Parcel Map 30-meter depth-averaged shear velocity (Vs30) values shows the data to approximately fit a bimodal normal distribution with μ1 = 400 m/s, σ1 = 76 m/s, μ2 = 790 m/s, σ2 = 149 m/s, and p = 0.49., where μ is the mean, σ is standard deviation, and p is the probability mixing factor for the bimodal distribution. Based on plots of spatial power spectra, the Parcel Map appears to be fractal over the second and third decades, in kilometers. The spatial spectra possess the same fractal dimension in the N-S and the E-W directions, indicating isotropic scale invariance. We configured finite-difference wave propagation models at 0.5 Hz with LLNL's E3D code, utilizing the Parcel Map as input parameters to compute a PGV data set from a scenario earthquake (Black Hills M6.5). The resulting PGV is fractal over the same spatial frequencies as the Vs30 data sets associated with their respective models. The fractal dimension is systematically lower in all of the PGV maps as opposed to the Vs30 maps, showing that the PGV maps are richer in higher spatial frequencies. This is potentially caused by a lens focusing effects on seismic waves due to spatial heterogeneity in site conditions.

Tributaries affect the thermal response of lakes to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Råman Vinnå, Love; Wüest, Alfred; Zappa, Massimiliano; Fink, Gabriel; Bouffard, Damien

2018-01-01

Thermal responses of inland waters to climate change varies on global and regional scales. The extent of warming is determined by system-specific characteristics such as fluvial input. Here we examine the impact of ongoing climate change on two alpine tributaries, the Aare River and the Rhône River, and their respective downstream peri-alpine lakes: Lake Biel and Lake Geneva. We propagate regional atmospheric temperature effects into river discharge projections. These, together with anthropogenic heat sources, are in turn incorporated into simple and efficient deterministic models that predict future water temperatures, river-borne suspended sediment concentration (SSC), lake stratification and river intrusion depth/volume in the lakes. Climate-induced shifts in river discharge regimes, including seasonal flow variations, act as positive and negative feedbacks in influencing river water temperature and SSC. Differences in temperature and heating regimes between rivers and lakes in turn result in large seasonal shifts in warming of downstream lakes. The extent of this repressive effect on warming is controlled by the lakes hydraulic residence time. Previous studies suggest that climate change will diminish deep-water oxygen renewal in lakes. We find that climate-related seasonal variations in river temperatures and SSC shift deep penetrating river intrusions from summer towards winter. Thus potentially counteracting the otherwise negative effects associated with climate change on deep-water oxygen content. Our findings provide a template for evaluating the response of similar hydrologic systems to on-going climate change.

On the effect of the 3-D regional geology on the seismic design of critical structures: the case of the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gatti, F.; Lopez-Caballero, F.; Clouteau, D.; Paolucci, R.

2018-05-01

In this study, numerical investigation is performed on a realistic source-to-site earthquake scenario, with the aim to assess the role of complex 3-D geological structures on the predicted wavefield. With this respect, the paper pointedly targets the seismic response of nuclear power plants in near-field conditions and the verification of some simplified assumptions commonly adopted for earthquake ground motion prediction and site effects analysis. To this purpose, the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant (Japan) is assumed as reference case-study. In 2007, the nuclear site and its surroundings were struck by the Niigata-Ken Chūetsu-Oki seismic sequence, which caused some of the peak ground motion design limits to be largely overpassed. The dense observation network deployed at the site recorded a highly incoherent and impulsive earthquake ground motion. Many studies argued that the intricate syncline-anticline geology lying underneath the nuclear facility was highly responsible of the observed seismic response. Therefore, a physics-based numerical model of the epicentral area is built-up (≈60 km wide) and tested for small aftershocks, so to discount the effect of extended source on the synthetic site-response. The numerical model (based on the Spectral Element Method) reproduces the source-to-site wave propagation by embracing the effects of the surface topography along with the presence of the Japan Sea (i.e. the bathymetry, the coastline and the fluid-solid interaction). Broad-band (0-5 Hz) synthetic waveforms are obtained for two different aftershocks, located at the two opposite sides of the nuclear facility, aiming to assess the influence of the incidence angle the radiated wave field impinges the foldings beneath it. The effect of the folding presence is assessed by comparing it to a subhorizontally layered geology, in terms of numerical outcome, and by highlighting the differences with respect to the observations. The presence of an intricate geology effectively unveils the reason behind the observed ground motion spatial variability within a relatively small area, stressing its crucial role to properly reproduce the modification the wavefield undergoes during its propagation path towards the surface. The accuracy of the numerical exercise is discussed along with its results, to show the high-fidelity of these deterministic earthquake ground motion predictions.

Deterministic influences exceed dispersal effects on hydrologically-connected microbiomes: Deterministic assembly of hyporheic microbiomes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Graham, Emily B.; Crump, Alex R.; Resch, Charles T.

2017-03-28

Subsurface zones of groundwater and surface water mixing (hyporheic zones) are regions of enhanced rates of biogeochemical cycling, yet ecological processes governing hyporheic microbiome composition and function through space and time remain unknown. We sampled attached and planktonic microbiomes in the Columbia River hyporheic zone across seasonal hydrologic change, and employed statistical null models to infer mechanisms generating temporal changes in microbiomes within three hydrologically-connected, physicochemically-distinct geographic zones (inland, nearshore, river). We reveal that microbiomes remain dissimilar through time across all zones and habitat types (attached vs. planktonic) and that deterministic assembly processes regulate microbiome composition in all data subsets.more » The consistent presence of heterotrophic taxa and members of the Planctomycetes-Verrucomicrobia-Chlamydiae (PVC) superphylum nonetheless suggests common selective pressures for physiologies represented in these groups. Further, co-occurrence networks were used to provide insight into taxa most affected by deterministic assembly processes. We identified network clusters to represent groups of organisms that correlated with seasonal and physicochemical change. Extended network analyses identified keystone taxa within each cluster that we propose are central in microbiome composition and function. Finally, the abundance of one network cluster of nearshore organisms exhibited a seasonal shift from heterotrophic to autotrophic metabolisms and correlated with microbial metabolism, possibly indicating an ecological role for these organisms as foundational species in driving biogeochemical reactions within the hyporheic zone. Taken together, our research demonstrates a predominant role for deterministic assembly across highly-connected environments and provides insight into niche dynamics associated with seasonal changes in hyporheic microbiome composition and metabolism.« less

Theory and applications of a deterministic approximation to the coalescent model

PubMed Central

Jewett, Ethan M.; Rosenberg, Noah A.

2014-01-01

Under the coalescent model, the random number nt of lineages ancestral to a sample is nearly deterministic as a function of time when nt is moderate to large in value, and it is well approximated by its expectation E[nt]. In turn, this expectation is well approximated by simple deterministic functions that are easy to compute. Such deterministic functions have been applied to estimate allele age, effective population size, and genetic diversity, and they have been used to study properties of models of infectious disease dynamics. Although a number of simple approximations of E[nt] have been derived and applied to problems of population-genetic inference, the theoretical accuracy of the formulas and the inferences obtained using these approximations is not known, and the range of problems to which they can be applied is not well understood. Here, we demonstrate general procedures by which the approximation nt ≈ E[nt] can be used to reduce the computational complexity of coalescent formulas, and we show that the resulting approximations converge to their true values under simple assumptions. Such approximations provide alternatives to exact formulas that are computationally intractable or numerically unstable when the number of sampled lineages is moderate or large. We also extend an existing class of approximations of E[nt] to the case of multiple populations of time-varying size with migration among them. Our results facilitate the use of the deterministic approximation nt ≈ E[nt] for deriving functionally simple, computationally efficient, and numerically stable approximations of coalescent formulas under complicated demographic scenarios. PMID:24412419

Feedback from uncertainties propagation research projects conducted in different hydraulic fields: outcomes for engineering projects and nuclear safety assessment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacchi, Vito; Duluc, Claire-Marie; Bertrand, Nathalie; Bardet, Lise

2017-04-01

In recent years, in the context of hydraulic risk assessment, much effort has been put into the development of sophisticated numerical model systems able reproducing surface flow field. These numerical models are based on a deterministic approach and the results are presented in terms of measurable quantities (water depths, flow velocities, etc…). However, the modelling of surface flows involves numerous uncertainties associated both to the numerical structure of the model, to the knowledge of the physical parameters which force the system and to the randomness inherent to natural phenomena. As a consequence, dealing with uncertainties can be a difficult task for both modelers and decision-makers [Ioss, 2011]. In the context of nuclear safety, IRSN assesses studies conducted by operators for different reference flood situations (local rain, small or large watershed flooding, sea levels, etc…), that are defined in the guide ASN N°13 [ASN, 2013]. The guide provides some recommendations to deal with uncertainties, by proposing a specific conservative approach to cover hydraulic modelling uncertainties. Depending of the situation, the influencing parameter might be the Strickler coefficient, levee behavior, simplified topographic assumptions, etc. Obviously, identifying the most influencing parameter and giving it a penalizing value is challenging and usually questionable. In this context, IRSN conducted cooperative (Compagnie Nationale du Rhone, I-CiTy laboratory of Polytech'Nice, Atomic Energy Commission, Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières) research activities since 2011 in order to investigate feasibility and benefits of Uncertainties Analysis (UA) and Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) when applied to hydraulic modelling. A specific methodology was tested by using the computational environment Promethee, developed by IRSN, which allows carrying out uncertainties propagation study. This methodology was applied with various numerical models and in different contexts, as river flooding on the Rhône River (Nguyen et al., 2015) and on the Garonne River, for the studying of local rainfall (Abily et al., 2016) or for tsunami generation, in the framework of the ANR-research project TANDEM. The feedback issued from these previous studies is analyzed (technical problems, limitations, interesting results, etc…) and the perspectives and a discussion on how a probabilistic approach of uncertainties should improve the actual deterministic methodology for risk assessment (also for other engineering applications) will be finally given.

Prospective testing of neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios for the Italian territory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peresan, Antonella; Magrin, Andrea; Vaccari, Franco; Kossobokov, Vladimir; Panza, Giuliano F.

2013-04-01

A reliable and comprehensive characterization of expected seismic ground shaking, eventually including the related time information, is essential in order to develop effective mitigation strategies and increase earthquake preparedness. Moreover, any effective tool for SHA must demonstrate its capability in anticipating the ground shaking related with large earthquake occurrences, a result that can be attained only through rigorous verification and validation process. So far, the major problems in classical probabilistic methods for seismic hazard assessment, PSHA, consisted in the adequate description of the earthquake recurrence, particularly for the largest and sporadic events, and of the attenuation models, which may be unable to account for the complexity of the medium and of the seismic sources and are often weekly constrained by the available observations. Current computational resources and physical knowledge of the seismic waves generation and propagation processes allow nowadays for viable numerical and analytical alternatives to the use of attenuation relations. Accordingly, a scenario-based neo-deterministic approach, NDSHA, to seismic hazard assessment has been proposed, which allows considering a wide range of possible seismic sources as the starting point for deriving scenarios by means of full waveforms modeling. The method does not make use of attenuation relations and naturally supplies realistic time series of ground shaking, including reliable estimates of ground displacement readily applicable to seismic isolation techniques. Based on NDSHA, an operational integrated procedure for seismic hazard assessment has been developed, that allows for the definition of time dependent scenarios of ground shaking, through the routine updating of formally defined earthquake predictions. The integrated NDSHA procedure for seismic input definition, which is currently applied to the Italian territory, combines different pattern recognition techniques, designed for the space-time identification of strong earthquakes, with algorithms for the realistic modeling of ground motion. Accordingly, a set of deterministic scenarios of ground motion at bedrock, which refers to the time interval when a strong event is likely to occur within the alerted area, can be defined by means of full waveform modeling, both at regional and local scale. CN and M8S predictions, as well as the related time-dependent ground motion scenarios associated with the alarmed areas, are regularly updated every two months since 2006. The routine application of the time-dependent NDSHA approach provides information that can be useful in assigning priorities for timely mitigation actions and, at the same time, allows for a rigorous prospective testing and validation of the proposed methodology. As an example, for sites where ground shaking values greater than 0.2 g are estimated at bedrock, further investigations can be performed taking into account the local soil conditions, to assess the performances of relevant structures, such as historical and strategic buildings. The issues related with prospective testing and validation of the time-dependent NDSHA scenarios will be discussed, illustrating the results obtained for the recent strong earthquakes in Italy, including the May 20, 2012 Emilia earthquake.

Impact of Periodic Unsteadiness on Performance and Heat Load in Axial Flow Turbomachines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sharma, Om P.; Stetson, Gary M.; Daniels, William A,; Greitzer, Edward M.; Blair, Michael F.; Dring, Robert P.

1997-01-01

Results of an analytical and experimental investigation, directed at the understanding of the impact of periodic unsteadiness on the time-averaged flows in axial flow turbomachines, are presented. Analysis of available experimental data, from a large-scale rotating rig (LSRR) (low speed rig), shows that in the time-averaged axisymmetric equations the magnitude of the terms representing the effect of periodic unsteadiness (deterministic stresses) are as large or larger than those due to random unsteadiness (turbulence). Numerical experiments, conducted to highlight physical mechanisms associated with the migration of combustor generated hot-streaks in turbine rotors, indicated that the effect can be simulated by accounting for deterministic stress like terms in the time-averaged mass and energy conservation equations. The experimental portion of this program shows that the aerodynamic loss for the second stator in a 1-1/2 stage turbine are influenced by the axial spacing between the second stator leading edge and the rotor trailing edge. However, the axial spacing has little impact on the heat transfer coefficient. These performance changes are believed to be associated with the change in deterministic stress at the inlet to the second stator. Data were also acquired to quantify the impact of indexing the first stator relative to the second stator. For the range of parameters examined, this effect was found to be of the same order as the effect of axial spacing.

Hydrodynamic metamaterials: Microfabricated arrays to steer, refract, and focus streams of biomaterials

PubMed Central

Morton, Keith J.; Loutherback, Kevin; Inglis, David W.; Tsui, Ophelia K.; Sturm, James C.; Chou, Stephen Y.; Austin, Robert H.

2008-01-01

We show that it is possible to direct particles entrained in a fluid along trajectories much like rays of light in classical optics. A microstructured, asymmetric post array forms the core hydrodynamic element and is used as a building block to construct microfluidic metamaterials and to demonstrate refractive, focusing, and dispersive pathways for flowing beads and cells. The core element is based on the concept of deterministic lateral displacement where particles choose different paths through the asymmetric array based on their size: Particles larger than a critical size are displaced laterally at each row by a post and move along the asymmetric axis at an angle to the flow, while smaller particles move along streamline paths. We create compound elements with complex particle handling modes by tiling this core element using multiple transformation operations; we show that particle trajectories can be bent at an interface between two elements and that particles can be focused into hydrodynamic jets by using a single inlet port. Although particles propagate through these elements in a way that strongly resembles light rays propagating through optical elements, there are unique differences in the paths of our particles as compared with photons. The unusual aspects of these modular, microfluidic metamaterials form a rich design toolkit for mixing, separating, and analyzing cells and functional beads on-chip. PMID:18495920

Nitrogen enrichment suppresses other environmental drivers and homogenizes salt marsh leaf microbiome

DOE PAGES

Daleo, Pedro; Alberti, Juan; Jumpponen, Ari; ...

2018-04-12

Microbial community assembly is affected by a combination of forces that act simultaneously, but the mechanisms underpinning their relative influences remain elusive. This gap strongly limits our ability to predict human impacts on microbial communities and the processes they regulate. Here, we experimentally demonstrate that increased salinity stress, food web alteration and nutrient loading interact to drive outcomes in salt marsh fungal leaf communities. Both salinity stress and food web alterations drove communities to deterministically diverge, resulting in distinct fungal communities. Increased nutrient loads, nevertheless, partially suppressed the influence of other factors as determinants of fungal assembly. Using a nullmore » model approach, we found that increased nutrient loads enhanced the relative importance of stochastic over deterministic divergent processes; without increased nutrient loads, samples from different treatments showed a relatively (deterministic) divergent community assembly whereas increased nutrient loads drove the system to more stochastic assemblies, suppressing the effect of other treatments. These results demonstrate that common anthropogenic modifications can interact to control fungal community assembly. As a result, our results suggest that when the environmental conditions are spatially heterogeneous (as in our case, caused by specific combinations of experimental treatments), increased stochasticity caused by greater nutrient inputs can reduce the importance of deterministic filters that otherwise caused divergence, thus driving to microbial community homogenization.« less

Nitrogen enrichment suppresses other environmental drivers and homogenizes salt marsh leaf microbiome.

PubMed

Daleo, Pedro; Alberti, Juan; Jumpponen, Ari; Veach, Allison; Ialonardi, Florencia; Iribarne, Oscar; Silliman, Brian

2018-06-01

Microbial community assembly is affected by a combination of forces that act simultaneously, but the mechanisms underpinning their relative influences remain elusive. This gap strongly limits our ability to predict human impacts on microbial communities and the processes they regulate. Here, we experimentally demonstrate that increased salinity stress, food web alteration and nutrient loading interact to drive outcomes in salt marsh fungal leaf communities. Both salinity stress and food web alterations drove communities to deterministically diverge, resulting in distinct fungal communities. Increased nutrient loads, nevertheless, partially suppressed the influence of other factors as determinants of fungal assembly. Using a null model approach, we found that increased nutrient loads enhanced the relative importance of stochastic over deterministic divergent processes; without increased nutrient loads, samples from different treatments showed a relatively (deterministic) divergent community assembly whereas increased nutrient loads drove the system to more stochastic assemblies, suppressing the effect of other treatments. These results demonstrate that common anthropogenic modifications can interact to control fungal community assembly. Furthermore, our results suggest that when the environmental conditions are spatially heterogeneous (as in our case, caused by specific combinations of experimental treatments), increased stochasticity caused by greater nutrient inputs can reduce the importance of deterministic filters that otherwise caused divergence, thus driving to microbial community homogenization. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Combining Deterministic structures and stochastic heterogeneity for transport modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zech, Alraune; Attinger, Sabine; Dietrich, Peter; Teutsch, Georg

2017-04-01

Contaminant transport in highly heterogeneous aquifers is extremely challenging and subject of current scientific debate. Tracer plumes often show non-symmetric but highly skewed plume shapes. Predicting such transport behavior using the classical advection-dispersion-equation (ADE) in combination with a stochastic description of aquifer properties requires a dense measurement network. This is in contrast to the available information for most aquifers. A new conceptual aquifer structure model is presented which combines large-scale deterministic information and the stochastic approach for incorporating sub-scale heterogeneity. The conceptual model is designed to allow for a goal-oriented, site specific transport analysis making use of as few data as possible. Thereby the basic idea is to reproduce highly skewed tracer plumes in heterogeneous media by incorporating deterministic contrasts and effects of connectivity instead of using unimodal heterogeneous models with high variances. The conceptual model consists of deterministic blocks of mean hydraulic conductivity which might be measured by pumping tests indicating values differing in orders of magnitudes. A sub-scale heterogeneity is introduced within every block. This heterogeneity can be modeled as bimodal or log-normal distributed. The impact of input parameters, structure and conductivity contrasts is investigated in a systematic manor. Furthermore, some first successful implementation of the model was achieved for the well known MADE site.

Nitrogen enrichment suppresses other environmental drivers and homogenizes salt marsh leaf microbiome

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daleo, Pedro; Alberti, Juan; Jumpponen, Ari

Microbial community assembly is affected by a combination of forces that act simultaneously, but the mechanisms underpinning their relative influences remain elusive. This gap strongly limits our ability to predict human impacts on microbial communities and the processes they regulate. Here, we experimentally demonstrate that increased salinity stress, food web alteration and nutrient loading interact to drive outcomes in salt marsh fungal leaf communities. Both salinity stress and food web alterations drove communities to deterministically diverge, resulting in distinct fungal communities. Increased nutrient loads, nevertheless, partially suppressed the influence of other factors as determinants of fungal assembly. Using a nullmore » model approach, we found that increased nutrient loads enhanced the relative importance of stochastic over deterministic divergent processes; without increased nutrient loads, samples from different treatments showed a relatively (deterministic) divergent community assembly whereas increased nutrient loads drove the system to more stochastic assemblies, suppressing the effect of other treatments. These results demonstrate that common anthropogenic modifications can interact to control fungal community assembly. As a result, our results suggest that when the environmental conditions are spatially heterogeneous (as in our case, caused by specific combinations of experimental treatments), increased stochasticity caused by greater nutrient inputs can reduce the importance of deterministic filters that otherwise caused divergence, thus driving to microbial community homogenization.« less

Field-free deterministic ultrafast creation of magnetic skyrmions by spin-orbit torques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Büttner, Felix; Lemesh, Ivan; Schneider, Michael; Pfau, Bastian; Günther, Christian M.; Hessing, Piet; Geilhufe, Jan; Caretta, Lucas; Engel, Dieter; Krüger, Benjamin; Viefhaus, Jens; Eisebitt, Stefan; Beach, Geoffrey S. D.

2017-11-01

Magnetic skyrmions are stabilized by a combination of external magnetic fields, stray field energies, higher-order exchange interactions and the Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction (DMI). The last favours homochiral skyrmions, whose motion is driven by spin-orbit torques and is deterministic, which makes systems with a large DMI relevant for applications. Asymmetric multilayers of non-magnetic heavy metals with strong spin-orbit interactions and transition-metal ferromagnetic layers provide a large and tunable DMI. Also, the non-magnetic heavy metal layer can inject a vertical spin current with transverse spin polarization into the ferromagnetic layer via the spin Hall effect. This leads to torques that can be used to switch the magnetization completely in out-of-plane magnetized ferromagnetic elements, but the switching is deterministic only in the presence of a symmetry-breaking in-plane field. Although spin-orbit torques led to domain nucleation in continuous films and to stochastic nucleation of skyrmions in magnetic tracks, no practical means to create individual skyrmions controllably in an integrated device design at a selected position has been reported yet. Here we demonstrate that sub-nanosecond spin-orbit torque pulses can generate single skyrmions at custom-defined positions in a magnetic racetrack deterministically using the same current path as used for the shifting operation. The effect of the DMI implies that no external in-plane magnetic fields are needed for this aim. This implementation exploits a defect, such as a constriction in the magnetic track, that can serve as a skyrmion generator. The concept is applicable to any track geometry, including three-dimensional designs.

A Comparison of Monte Carlo and Deterministic Solvers for keff and Sensitivity Calculations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haeck, Wim; Parsons, Donald Kent; White, Morgan Curtis

Verification and validation of our solutions for calculating the neutron reactivity for nuclear materials is a key issue to address for many applications, including criticality safety, research reactors, power reactors, and nuclear security. Neutronics codes solve variations of the Boltzmann transport equation. The two main variants are Monte Carlo versus deterministic solutions, e.g. the MCNP [1] versus PARTISN [2] codes, respectively. There have been many studies over the decades that examined the accuracy of such solvers and the general conclusion is that when the problems are well-posed, either solver can produce accurate results. However, the devil is always in themore » details. The current study examines the issue of self-shielding and the stress it puts on deterministic solvers. Most Monte Carlo neutronics codes use continuous-energy descriptions of the neutron interaction data that are not subject to this effect. The issue of self-shielding occurs because of the discretisation of data used by the deterministic solutions. Multigroup data used in these solvers are the average cross section and scattering parameters over an energy range. Resonances in cross sections can occur that change the likelihood of interaction by one to three orders of magnitude over a small energy range. Self-shielding is the numerical effect that the average cross section in groups with strong resonances can be strongly affected as neutrons within that material are preferentially absorbed or scattered out of the resonance energies. This affects both the average cross section and the scattering matrix.« less

The relationship between stochastic and deterministic quasi-steady state approximations.

PubMed

Kim, Jae Kyoung; Josić, Krešimir; Bennett, Matthew R

2015-11-23

The quasi steady-state approximation (QSSA) is frequently used to reduce deterministic models of biochemical networks. The resulting equations provide a simplified description of the network in terms of non-elementary reaction functions (e.g. Hill functions). Such deterministic reductions are frequently a basis for heuristic stochastic models in which non-elementary reaction functions are used to define reaction propensities. Despite their popularity, it remains unclear when such stochastic reductions are valid. It is frequently assumed that the stochastic reduction can be trusted whenever its deterministic counterpart is accurate. However, a number of recent examples show that this is not necessarily the case. Here we explain the origin of these discrepancies, and demonstrate a clear relationship between the accuracy of the deterministic and the stochastic QSSA for examples widely used in biological systems. With an analysis of a two-state promoter model, and numerical simulations for a variety of other models, we find that the stochastic QSSA is accurate whenever its deterministic counterpart provides an accurate approximation over a range of initial conditions which cover the likely fluctuations from the quasi steady-state (QSS). We conjecture that this relationship provides a simple and computationally inexpensive way to test the accuracy of reduced stochastic models using deterministic simulations. The stochastic QSSA is one of the most popular multi-scale stochastic simulation methods. While the use of QSSA, and the resulting non-elementary functions has been justified in the deterministic case, it is not clear when their stochastic counterparts are accurate. In this study, we show how the accuracy of the stochastic QSSA can be tested using their deterministic counterparts providing a concrete method to test when non-elementary rate functions can be used in stochastic simulations.

Propagation effects handbook for satellite systems design. A summary of propagation impairments on 10 to 100 GHz satellite links with techniques for system design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ippolito, Louis J.

1989-01-01

The NASA Propagation Effects Handbook for Satellite Systems Design provides a systematic compilation of the major propagation effects experienced on space-Earth paths in the 10 to 100 GHz frequency band region. It provides both a detailed description of the propagation phenomenon and a summary of the impact of the effect on the communications system design and performance. Chapter 2 through 5 describe the propagation effects, prediction models, and available experimental data bases. In Chapter 6, design techniques and prediction methods available for evaluating propagation effects on space-Earth communication systems are presented. Chapter 7 addresses the system design process and how the effects of propagation on system design and performance should be considered and how that can be mitigated. Examples of operational and planned Ku, Ka, and EHF satellite communications systems are given.

On the Anticipatory Aspects of the Four Interactions: what the Known Classical and Semi-Classical Solutions Teach us

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lusanna, Luca

2004-08-19

The four (electro-magnetic, weak, strong and gravitational) interactions are described by singular Lagrangians and by Dirac-Bergmann theory of Hamiltonian constraints. As a consequence a subset of the original configuration variables are gauge variables, not determined by the equations of motion. Only at the Hamiltonian level it is possible to separate the gauge variables from the deterministic physical degrees of freedom, the Dirac observables, and to formulate a well posed Cauchy problem for them both in special and general relativity. Then the requirement of causality dictates the choice of retarded solutions at the classical level. However both the problems of themore » classical theory of the electron, leading to the choice of (1/2) (retarded + advanced) solutions, and the regularization of quantum field theory, leading to the Feynman propagator, introduce anticipatory aspects. The determination of the relativistic Darwin potential as a semi-classical approximation to the Lienard-Wiechert solution for particles with Grassmann-valued electric charges, regularizing the Coulomb self-energies, shows that these anticipatory effects live beyond the semi-classical approximation (tree level) under the form of radiative corrections, at least for the electro-magnetic interaction.Talk and 'best contribution' at The Sixth International Conference on Computing Anticipatory Systems CASYS'03, Liege August 11-16, 2003.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Argo, P.E.; DeLapp, D.; Sutherland, C.D.

TRACKER is an extension of a three-dimensional Hamiltonian raytrace code developed some thirty years ago by R. Michael Jones. Subsequent modifications to this code, which is commonly called the {open_quotes}Jones Code,{close_quotes} were documented by Jones and Stephensen (1975). TRACKER incorporates an interactive user`s interface, modern differential equation integrators, graphical outputs, homing algorithms, and the Ionospheric Conductivity and Electron Density (ICED) ionosphere. TRACKER predicts the three-dimensional paths of radio waves through model ionospheres by numerically integrating Hamilton`s equations, which are a differential expression of Fermat`s principle of least time. By using continuous models, the Hamiltonian method avoids false caustics and discontinuousmore » raypath properties often encountered in other raytracing methods. In addition to computing the raypath, TRACKER also calculates the group path (or pulse travel time), the phase path, the geometrical (or {open_quotes}real{close_quotes}) pathlength, and the Doppler shift (if the time variation of the ionosphere is explicitly included). Computational speed can be traded for accuracy by specifying the maximum allowable integration error per step in the integration. Only geometrical optics are included in the main raytrace code; no partial reflections or diffraction effects are taken into account. In addition, TRACKER does not lend itself to statistical descriptions of propagation -- it requires a deterministic model of the ionosphere.« less

Host Resistance, Population Structure and the Long-Term Persistence of Bubonic Plague: Contributions of a Modelling Approach in the Malagasy Focus

PubMed Central

Gascuel, Fanny; Choisy, Marc; Duplantier, Jean-Marc; Débarre, Florence; Brouat, Carine

2013-01-01

Although bubonic plague is an endemic zoonosis in many countries around the world, the factors responsible for the persistence of this highly virulent disease remain poorly known. Classically, the endemic persistence of plague is suspected to be due to the coexistence of plague resistant and plague susceptible rodents in natural foci, and/or to a metapopulation structure of reservoirs. Here, we test separately the effect of each of these factors on the long-term persistence of plague. We analyse the dynamics and equilibria of a model of plague propagation, consistent with plague ecology in Madagascar, a major focus where this disease is endemic since the 1920s in central highlands. By combining deterministic and stochastic analyses of this model, and including sensitivity analyses, we show that (i) endemicity is favoured by intermediate host population sizes, (ii) in large host populations, the presence of resistant rats is sufficient to explain long-term persistence of plague, and (iii) the metapopulation structure of susceptible host populations alone can also account for plague endemicity, thanks to both subdivision and the subsequent reduction in the size of subpopulations, and extinction-recolonization dynamics of the disease. In the light of these results, we suggest scenarios to explain the localized presence of plague in Madagascar. PMID:23675291

Host resistance, population structure and the long-term persistence of bubonic plague: contributions of a modelling approach in the Malagasy focus.

PubMed

Gascuel, Fanny; Choisy, Marc; Duplantier, Jean-Marc; Débarre, Florence; Brouat, Carine

2013-01-01

Although bubonic plague is an endemic zoonosis in many countries around the world, the factors responsible for the persistence of this highly virulent disease remain poorly known. Classically, the endemic persistence of plague is suspected to be due to the coexistence of plague resistant and plague susceptible rodents in natural foci, and/or to a metapopulation structure of reservoirs. Here, we test separately the effect of each of these factors on the long-term persistence of plague. We analyse the dynamics and equilibria of a model of plague propagation, consistent with plague ecology in Madagascar, a major focus where this disease is endemic since the 1920s in central highlands. By combining deterministic and stochastic analyses of this model, and including sensitivity analyses, we show that (i) endemicity is favoured by intermediate host population sizes, (ii) in large host populations, the presence of resistant rats is sufficient to explain long-term persistence of plague, and (iii) the metapopulation structure of susceptible host populations alone can also account for plague endemicity, thanks to both subdivision and the subsequent reduction in the size of subpopulations, and extinction-recolonization dynamics of the disease. In the light of these results, we suggest scenarios to explain the localized presence of plague in Madagascar.

Hemopoietic Response to Low Dose-Rates of Ionizing Radiation Shows Stem Cell Tolerance and Adaptation

PubMed Central

Fliedner, Theodor M.; Graessle, Dieter H.; Meineke, Viktor; Feinendegen, Ludwig E.

2012-01-01

Chronic exposure of mammals to low dose-rates of ionizing radiation affects proliferating cell systems as a function of both dose-rate and the total dose accumulated. The lower the dose-rate the higher needs to be the total dose for a deterministic effect, i.e., tissue reaction to appear. Stem cells provide for proliferating, maturing and functional cells. Stem cells usually are particularly radiosensitive and damage to them may propagate to cause failure of functional cells. The paper revisits 1) medical histories with emphasis on the hemopoietic system of the victims of ten accidental chronic radiation exposures, 2) published hematological findings of long-term chronically gamma-irradiated rodents, and 3) such findings in dogs chronically exposed in large life-span studies. The data are consistent with the hypothesis that hemopoietic stem and early progenitor cells have the capacity to tolerate and adapt to being repetitively hit by energy deposition events. The data are compatible with the “injured stem cell hypothesis”, stating that radiation–injured stem cells, depending on dose-rate, may continue to deliver clones of functional cells that maintain homeostasis of hemopoiesis throughout life. Further studies perhaps on separated hemopoietic stem cells may unravel the molecular-biology mechanisms causing radiation tolerance and adaptation. PMID:23304110

Tsunami hazard assessment in the Colombian Caribbean Coast with a deterministic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero Diaz, L.; Correa, R.; Ortiz R, J. C.; Restrepo L, J. C.

2014-12-01

For the Caribbean Sea, we propose six potential tectonic sources of tsunami, defining for each source the worst credible earthquake from the analysis of historical seismicity, tectonics, pasts tsunami, and review of IRIS, PDE, NOAA, and CMT catalogs. The generation and propagation of tsunami waves in the selected sources were simulated with COMCOT 1.7, which is a numerical model that solves the linear and nonlinear long wave equations in finite differences in both Cartesian, and spherical coordinates. The results of the modeling are presented in maps of maximum displacement of the free surface for the Colombian Caribbean coast and the island areas, and they show that the event would produce greater impact is generated in the source of North Panama Deformed Belt (NPDB), where the first wave train reaches the central Colombian coast in 40 minutes, generating wave heights up to 3.7 m. In San Andrés and Providencia island, tsunami waves reach more than 4.5 m due effects of edge waves caused by interactions between waves and a barrier coral reef around of each island. The results obtained in this work are useful for planning systems and future regional and local warning systems and to identify priority areas to conduct detailed research to the tsunami threat.

Jackpot Structural Features: Rollover Effect and Goal-Gradient Effect in EGM Gambling.

PubMed

Li, En; Rockloff, Matthew J; Browne, Matthew; Donaldson, Phillip

2016-06-01

Relatively little research has been undertaken on the influence of jackpot structural features on electronic gaming machine (EGM) gambling behavior. This study considered two common features of EGM jackpots: progressive (i.e., the jackpot incrementally growing in value as players make additional bets), and deterministic (i.e., a guaranteed jackpot after a fixed number of bets, which is determined in advance and at random). Their joint influences on player betting behavior and the moderating role of jackpot size were investigated in a crossed-design experiment. Using real money, players gambled on a computer simulated EGM with real jackpot prizes of either $500 (i.e., small jackpot) or $25,000 (i.e., large jackpot). The results revealed three important findings. Firstly, players placed the largest bets (20.3 % higher than the average) on large jackpot EGMs that were represented to be deterministic and non-progressive. This finding was supportive of a hypothesized 'goal-gradient effect', whereby players might have felt subjectively close to an inevitable payoff for a high-value prize. Secondly, large jackpots that were non-deterministic and progressive also promoted high bet sizes (17.8 % higher than the average), resembling the 'rollover effect' demonstrated in lottery betting, whereby players might imagine that their large bets could be later recouped through a big win. Lastly, neither the hypothesized goal-gradient effect nor the rollover effect was evident among players betting on small jackpot machines. These findings suggest that certain high-value jackpot configurations may have intensifying effects on player behavior.

Balanced Branching in Transcription Termination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harrington, K. J.; Laughlin, R. B.; Liang, S.

2001-01-01

The theory of stochastic transcription termination based on free-energy competition requires two or more reaction rates to be delicately balanced over a wide range of physical conditions. A large body of work on glasses and large molecules suggests that this should be impossible in such a large system in the absence of a new organizing principle of matter. We review the experimental literature of termination and find no evidence for such a principle but many troubling inconsistencies, most notably anomalous memory effects. These suggest that termination has a deterministic component and may conceivably be not stochastic at all. We find that a key experiment by Wilson and von Hippel allegedly refuting deterministic termination was an incorrectly analyzed regulatory effect of Mg(2+) binding.

Deterministic Walks with Choice

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beeler, Katy E.; Berenhaut, Kenneth S.; Cooper, Joshua N.

2014-01-10

This paper studies deterministic movement over toroidal grids, integrating local information, bounded memory and choice at individual nodes. The research is motivated by recent work on deterministic random walks, and applications in multi-agent systems. Several results regarding passing tokens through toroidal grids are discussed, as well as some open questions.

Signal separation by nonlinear projections: The fetal electrocardiogram

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schreiber, Thomas; Kaplan, Daniel T.

1996-05-01

We apply a locally linear projection technique which has been developed for noise reduction in deterministically chaotic signals to extract the fetal component from scalar maternal electrocardiographic (ECG) recordings. Although we do not expect the maternal ECG to be deterministic chaotic, typical signals are effectively confined to a lower-dimensional manifold when embedded in delay space. The method is capable of extracting fetal heart rate even when the fetal component and the noise are of comparable amplitude. If the noise is small, more details of the fetal ECG, like P and T waves, can be recovered.

Probabilistic safety assessment of the design of a tall buildings under the extreme load

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Králik, Juraj, E-mail: juraj.kralik@stuba.sk

2016-06-08

The paper describes some experiences from the deterministic and probabilistic analysis of the safety of the tall building structure. There are presented the methods and requirements of Eurocode EN 1990, standard ISO 2394 and JCSS. The uncertainties of the model and resistance of the structures are considered using the simulation methods. The MONTE CARLO, LHS and RSM probabilistic methods are compared with the deterministic results. On the example of the probability analysis of the safety of the tall buildings is demonstrated the effectiveness of the probability design of structures using Finite Element Methods.

Role of demographic stochasticity in a speciation model with sexual reproduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lafuerza, Luis F.; McKane, Alan J.

2016-03-01

Recent theoretical studies have shown that demographic stochasticity can greatly increase the tendency of asexually reproducing phenotypically diverse organisms to spontaneously evolve into localized clusters, suggesting a simple mechanism for sympatric speciation. Here we study the role of demographic stochasticity in a model of competing organisms subject to assortative mating. We find that in models with sexual reproduction, noise can also lead to the formation of phenotypic clusters in parameter ranges where deterministic models would lead to a homogeneous distribution. In some cases, noise can have a sizable effect, rendering the deterministic modeling insufficient to understand the phenotypic distribution.

Probabilistic safety assessment of the design of a tall buildings under the extreme load

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Králik, Juraj

2016-06-01

The paper describes some experiences from the deterministic and probabilistic analysis of the safety of the tall building structure. There are presented the methods and requirements of Eurocode EN 1990, standard ISO 2394 and JCSS. The uncertainties of the model and resistance of the structures are considered using the simulation methods. The MONTE CARLO, LHS and RSM probabilistic methods are compared with the deterministic results. On the example of the probability analysis of the safety of the tall buildings is demonstrated the effectiveness of the probability design of structures using Finite Element Methods.

Relative Roles of Deterministic and Stochastic Processes in Driving the Vertical Distribution of Bacterial Communities in a Permafrost Core from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China.

PubMed

Hu, Weigang; Zhang, Qi; Tian, Tian; Li, Dingyao; Cheng, Gang; Mu, Jing; Wu, Qingbai; Niu, Fujun; Stegen, James C; An, Lizhe; Feng, Huyuan

2015-01-01

Understanding the processes that influence the structure of biotic communities is one of the major ecological topics, and both stochastic and deterministic processes are expected to be at work simultaneously in most communities. Here, we investigated the vertical distribution patterns of bacterial communities in a 10-m-long soil core taken within permafrost of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. To get a better understanding of the forces that govern these patterns, we examined the diversity and structure of bacterial communities, and the change in community composition along the vertical distance (spatial turnover) from both taxonomic and phylogenetic perspectives. Measures of taxonomic and phylogenetic beta diversity revealed that bacterial community composition changed continuously along the soil core, and showed a vertical distance-decay relationship. Multiple stepwise regression analysis suggested that bacterial alpha diversity and phylogenetic structure were strongly correlated with soil conductivity and pH but weakly correlated with depth. There was evidence that deterministic and stochastic processes collectively drived bacterial vertically-structured pattern. Bacterial communities in five soil horizons (two originated from the active layer and three from permafrost) of the permafrost core were phylogenetically random, indicator of stochastic processes. However, we found a stronger effect of deterministic processes related to soil pH, conductivity, and organic carbon content that were structuring the bacterial communities. We therefore conclude that the vertical distribution of bacterial communities was governed primarily by deterministic ecological selection, although stochastic processes were also at work. Furthermore, the strong impact of environmental conditions (for example, soil physicochemical parameters and seasonal freeze-thaw cycles) on these communities underlines the sensitivity of permafrost microorganisms to climate change and potentially subsequent permafrost thaw.

Relative Roles of Deterministic and Stochastic Processes in Driving the Vertical Distribution of Bacterial Communities in a Permafrost Core from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

PubMed Central

Tian, Tian; Li, Dingyao; Cheng, Gang; Mu, Jing; Wu, Qingbai; Niu, Fujun; Stegen, James C.; An, Lizhe; Feng, Huyuan

2015-01-01

Understanding the processes that influence the structure of biotic communities is one of the major ecological topics, and both stochastic and deterministic processes are expected to be at work simultaneously in most communities. Here, we investigated the vertical distribution patterns of bacterial communities in a 10-m-long soil core taken within permafrost of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. To get a better understanding of the forces that govern these patterns, we examined the diversity and structure of bacterial communities, and the change in community composition along the vertical distance (spatial turnover) from both taxonomic and phylogenetic perspectives. Measures of taxonomic and phylogenetic beta diversity revealed that bacterial community composition changed continuously along the soil core, and showed a vertical distance-decay relationship. Multiple stepwise regression analysis suggested that bacterial alpha diversity and phylogenetic structure were strongly correlated with soil conductivity and pH but weakly correlated with depth. There was evidence that deterministic and stochastic processes collectively drived bacterial vertically-structured pattern. Bacterial communities in five soil horizons (two originated from the active layer and three from permafrost) of the permafrost core were phylogenetically random, indicator of stochastic processes. However, we found a stronger effect of deterministic processes related to soil pH, conductivity, and organic carbon content that were structuring the bacterial communities. We therefore conclude that the vertical distribution of bacterial communities was governed primarily by deterministic ecological selection, although stochastic processes were also at work. Furthermore, the strong impact of environmental conditions (for example, soil physicochemical parameters and seasonal freeze-thaw cycles) on these communities underlines the sensitivity of permafrost microorganisms to climate change and potentially subsequent permafrost thaw. PMID:26699734

Nanotransfer and nanoreplication using deterministically grown sacrificial nanotemplates

DOEpatents

Melechko, Anatoli V [Oak Ridge, TN; McKnight, Timothy E. , Guillorn, Michael A.; Ilic, Bojan [Ithaca, NY; Merkulov, Vladimir I [Knoxville, TN; Doktycz, Mitchel J [Knoxville, TN; Lowndes, Douglas H [Knoxville, TN; Simpson, Michael L [Knoxville, TN

2011-05-17

Methods, manufactures, machines and compositions are described for nanotransfer and nanoreplication using deterministically grown sacrificial nanotemplates. A method includes depositing a catalyst particle on a surface of a substrate to define a deterministically located position; growing an aligned elongated nanostructure on the substrate, an end of the aligned elongated nanostructure coupled to the substrate at the deterministically located position; coating the aligned elongated nanostructure with a conduit material; removing a portion of the conduit material to expose the catalyst particle; removing the catalyst particle; and removing the elongated nanostructure to define a nanoconduit.

Human brain detects short-time nonlinear predictability in the temporal fine structure of deterministic chaotic sounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itoh, Kosuke; Nakada, Tsutomu

2013-04-01

Deterministic nonlinear dynamical processes are ubiquitous in nature. Chaotic sounds generated by such processes may appear irregular and random in waveform, but these sounds are mathematically distinguished from random stochastic sounds in that they contain deterministic short-time predictability in their temporal fine structures. We show that the human brain distinguishes deterministic chaotic sounds from spectrally matched stochastic sounds in neural processing and perception. Deterministic chaotic sounds, even without being attended to, elicited greater cerebral cortical responses than the surrogate control sounds after about 150 ms in latency after sound onset. Listeners also clearly discriminated these sounds in perception. The results support the hypothesis that the human auditory system is sensitive to the subtle short-time predictability embedded in the temporal fine structure of sounds.

A deterministic particle method for one-dimensional reaction-diffusion equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mascagni, Michael

1995-01-01

We derive a deterministic particle method for the solution of nonlinear reaction-diffusion equations in one spatial dimension. This deterministic method is an analog of a Monte Carlo method for the solution of these problems that has been previously investigated by the author. The deterministic method leads to the consideration of a system of ordinary differential equations for the positions of suitably defined particles. We then consider the time explicit and implicit methods for this system of ordinary differential equations and we study a Picard and Newton iteration for the solution of the implicit system. Next we solve numerically this system and study the discretization error both analytically and numerically. Numerical computation shows that this deterministic method is automatically adaptive to large gradients in the solution.

Stochastic Multi-Timescale Power System Operations With Variable Wind Generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Hongyu; Krad, Ibrahim; Florita, Anthony

This paper describes a novel set of stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch models that consider stochastic loads and variable generation at multiple operational timescales. The stochastic model includes four distinct stages: stochastic day-ahead security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC), stochastic real-time SCUC, stochastic real-time security-constrained economic dispatch (SCED), and deterministic automatic generation control (AGC). These sub-models are integrated together such that they are continually updated with decisions passed from one to another. The progressive hedging algorithm (PHA) is applied to solve the stochastic models to maintain the computational tractability of the proposed models. Comparative case studies with deterministic approaches are conductedmore » in low wind and high wind penetration scenarios to highlight the advantages of the proposed methodology, one with perfect forecasts and the other with current state-of-the-art but imperfect deterministic forecasts. The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated with sensitivity tests using both economic and reliability metrics to provide a broader view of its impact.« less

Distinct Sources of Deterministic and Stochastic Components of Action Timing Decisions in Rodent Frontal Cortex.

PubMed

Murakami, Masayoshi; Shteingart, Hanan; Loewenstein, Yonatan; Mainen, Zachary F

2017-05-17

The selection and timing of actions are subject to determinate influences such as sensory cues and internal state as well as to effectively stochastic variability. Although stochastic choice mechanisms are assumed by many theoretical models, their origin and mechanisms remain poorly understood. Here we investigated this issue by studying how neural circuits in the frontal cortex determine action timing in rats performing a waiting task. Electrophysiological recordings from two regions necessary for this behavior, medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and secondary motor cortex (M2), revealed an unexpected functional dissociation. Both areas encoded deterministic biases in action timing, but only M2 neurons reflected stochastic trial-by-trial fluctuations. This differential coding was reflected in distinct timescales of neural dynamics in the two frontal cortical areas. These results suggest a two-stage model in which stochastic components of action timing decisions are injected by circuits downstream of those carrying deterministic bias signals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Deterministic multi-step rotation of magnetic single-domain state in Nickel nanodisks using multiferroic magnetoelastic coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sohn, Hyunmin; Liang, Cheng-yen; Nowakowski, Mark E.; Hwang, Yongha; Han, Seungoh; Bokor, Jeffrey; Carman, Gregory P.; Candler, Robert N.

2017-10-01

We demonstrate deterministic multi-step rotation of a magnetic single-domain (SD) state in Nickel nanodisks using the multiferroic magnetoelastic effect. Ferromagnetic Nickel nanodisks are fabricated on a piezoelectric Lead Zirconate Titanate (PZT) substrate, surrounded by patterned electrodes. With the application of a voltage between opposing electrode pairs, we generate anisotropic in-plane strains that reshape the magnetic energy landscape of the Nickel disks, reorienting magnetization toward a new easy axis. By applying a series of voltages sequentially to adjacent electrode pairs, circulating in-plane anisotropic strains are applied to the Nickel disks, deterministically rotating a SD state in the Nickel disks by increments of 45°. The rotation of the SD state is numerically predicted by a fully-coupled micromagnetic/elastodynamic finite element analysis (FEA) model, and the predictions are experimentally verified with magnetic force microscopy (MFM). This experimental result will provide a new pathway to develop energy efficient magnetic manipulation techniques at the nanoscale.

Appropriate time scales for nonlinear analyses of deterministic jump systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Tomoya

2011-06-01

In the real world, there are many phenomena that are derived from deterministic systems but which fluctuate with nonuniform time intervals. This paper discusses the appropriate time scales that can be applied to such systems to analyze their properties. The financial markets are an example of such systems wherein price movements fluctuate with nonuniform time intervals. However, it is common to apply uniform time scales such as 1-min data and 1-h data to study price movements. This paper examines the validity of such time scales by using surrogate data tests to ascertain whether the deterministic properties of the original system can be identified from uniform sampled data. The results show that uniform time samplings are often inappropriate for nonlinear analyses. However, for other systems such as neural spikes and Internet traffic packets, which produce similar outputs, uniform time samplings are quite effective in extracting the system properties. Nevertheless, uniform samplings often generate overlapping data, which can cause false rejections of surrogate data tests.

Delay compensation in integrated communication and control systems. I - Conceptual development and analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luck, Rogelio; Ray, Asok

1990-01-01

A procedure for compensating for the effects of distributed network-induced delays in integrated communication and control systems (ICCS) is proposed. The problem of analyzing systems with time-varying and possibly stochastic delays could be circumvented by use of a deterministic observer which is designed to perform under certain restrictive but realistic assumptions. The proposed delay-compensation algorithm is based on a deterministic state estimator and a linear state-variable-feedback control law. The deterministic observer can be replaced by a stochastic observer without any structural modifications of the delay compensation algorithm. However, if a feedforward-feedback control law is chosen instead of the state-variable feedback control law, the observer must be modified as a conventional nondelayed system would be. Under these circumstances, the delay compensation algorithm would be accordingly changed. The separation principle of the classical Luenberger observer holds true for the proposed delay compensator. The algorithm is suitable for ICCS in advanced aircraft, spacecraft, manufacturing automation, and chemical process applications.

Analysis of deterministic swapping of photonic and atomic states through single-photon Raman interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenblum, Serge; Borne, Adrien; Dayan, Barak

2017-03-01

The long-standing goal of deterministic quantum interactions between single photons and single atoms was recently realized in various experiments. Among these, an appealing demonstration relied on single-photon Raman interaction (SPRINT) in a three-level atom coupled to a single-mode waveguide. In essence, the interference-based process of SPRINT deterministically swaps the qubits encoded in a single photon and a single atom, without the need for additional control pulses. It can also be harnessed to construct passive entangling quantum gates, and can therefore form the basis for scalable quantum networks in which communication between the nodes is carried out only by single-photon pulses. Here we present an analytical and numerical study of SPRINT, characterizing its limitations and defining parameters for its optimal operation. Specifically, we study the effect of losses, imperfect polarization, and the presence of multiple excited states. In all cases we discuss strategies for restoring the operation of SPRINT.

Deterministic Modeling of the High Temperature Test Reactor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ortensi, J.; Cogliati, J. J.; Pope, M. A.

2010-06-01

Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is tasked with the development of reactor physics analysis capability of the Next Generation Nuclear Power (NGNP) project. In order to examine INL’s current prismatic reactor deterministic analysis tools, the project is conducting a benchmark exercise based on modeling the High Temperature Test Reactor (HTTR). This exercise entails the development of a model for the initial criticality, a 19 column thin annular core, and the fully loaded core critical condition with 30 columns. Special emphasis is devoted to the annular core modeling, which shares more characteristics with the NGNP base design. The DRAGON code is usedmore » in this study because it offers significant ease and versatility in modeling prismatic designs. Despite some geometric limitations, the code performs quite well compared to other lattice physics codes. DRAGON can generate transport solutions via collision probability (CP), method of characteristics (MOC), and discrete ordinates (Sn). A fine group cross section library based on the SHEM 281 energy structure is used in the DRAGON calculations. HEXPEDITE is the hexagonal z full core solver used in this study and is based on the Green’s Function solution of the transverse integrated equations. In addition, two Monte Carlo (MC) based codes, MCNP5 and PSG2/SERPENT, provide benchmarking capability for the DRAGON and the nodal diffusion solver codes. The results from this study show a consistent bias of 2–3% for the core multiplication factor. This systematic error has also been observed in other HTTR benchmark efforts and is well documented in the literature. The ENDF/B VII graphite and U235 cross sections appear to be the main source of the error. The isothermal temperature coefficients calculated with the fully loaded core configuration agree well with other benchmark participants but are 40% higher than the experimental values. This discrepancy with the measurement stems from the fact that during the experiments the control rods were adjusted to maintain criticality, whereas in the model, the rod positions were fixed. In addition, this work includes a brief study of a cross section generation approach that seeks to decouple the domain in order to account for neighbor effects. This spectral interpenetration is a dominant effect in annular HTR physics. This analysis methodology should be further explored in order to reduce the error that is systematically propagated in the traditional generation of cross sections.« less

Selective Shielding of Bone Marrow: An Approach to Protecting Humans from External Gamma Radiation.

PubMed

Waterman, Gideon; Kase, Kenneth; Orion, Itzhak; Broisman, Andrey; Milstein, Oren

2017-09-01

The current feasibility of protecting emergency responders through bone marrow selective shielding is highlighted in the recent OECD/NEA report on severe accident management. Until recently, there was no effective personal protection from externally penetrating gamma radiation. In Chernobyl, first-responders wore makeshift lead sheeting, whereas in Fukushima protective equipment from gamma radiation was not available. Older protective solutions that use thin layers of shielding over large body surfaces are ineffective for energetic gamma radiation. Acute exposures may result in Acute Radiation Syndrome where the survival-limiting factor up to 10 Gy uniform, homogeneous exposure is irreversible bone marrow damage. Protracted, lower exposures may result in malignancies of which bone marrow is especially susceptible, being compounded by leukemia's short latency time. This highlights the importance of shielding bone marrow for preventing both deterministic and stochastic effects. Due to the extraordinary regenerative potential of hematopoietic stem cells, to effectively prevent the deterministic effects of bone marrow exposure, it is sufficient to protect only a small fraction of this tissue. This biological principle allows for a new class of equipment providing unprecedented attenuation of radiation to select marrow-rich regions, deferring the hematopoietic sub-syndrome of Acute Radiation Syndrome to much higher doses. As approximately half of the body's active bone marrow resides within the pelvis region, shielding this area holds great promise for preventing the deterministic effects of bone marrow exposure and concomitantly reducing stochastic effects. The efficacy of a device that selectively shields this region and other radiosensitive organs in the abdominal area is shown here.

Stochastic simulation of reaction-diffusion systems: A fluctuating-hydrodynamics approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Changho; Nonaka, Andy; Bell, John B.; Garcia, Alejandro L.; Donev, Aleksandar

2017-03-01

We develop numerical methods for stochastic reaction-diffusion systems based on approaches used for fluctuating hydrodynamics (FHD). For hydrodynamic systems, the FHD formulation is formally described by stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). In the reaction-diffusion systems we consider, our model becomes similar to the reaction-diffusion master equation (RDME) description when our SPDEs are spatially discretized and reactions are modeled as a source term having Poisson fluctuations. However, unlike the RDME, which becomes prohibitively expensive for an increasing number of molecules, our FHD-based description naturally extends from the regime where fluctuations are strong, i.e., each mesoscopic cell has few (reactive) molecules, to regimes with moderate or weak fluctuations, and ultimately to the deterministic limit. By treating diffusion implicitly, we avoid the severe restriction on time step size that limits all methods based on explicit treatments of diffusion and construct numerical methods that are more efficient than RDME methods, without compromising accuracy. Guided by an analysis of the accuracy of the distribution of steady-state fluctuations for the linearized reaction-diffusion model, we construct several two-stage (predictor-corrector) schemes, where diffusion is treated using a stochastic Crank-Nicolson method, and reactions are handled by the stochastic simulation algorithm of Gillespie or a weakly second-order tau leaping method. We find that an implicit midpoint tau leaping scheme attains second-order weak accuracy in the linearized setting and gives an accurate and stable structure factor for a time step size of an order of magnitude larger than the hopping time scale of diffusing molecules. We study the numerical accuracy of our methods for the Schlögl reaction-diffusion model both in and out of thermodynamic equilibrium. We demonstrate and quantify the importance of thermodynamic fluctuations to the formation of a two-dimensional Turing-like pattern and examine the effect of fluctuations on three-dimensional chemical front propagation. By comparing stochastic simulations to deterministic reaction-diffusion simulations, we show that fluctuations accelerate pattern formation in spatially homogeneous systems and lead to a qualitatively different disordered pattern behind a traveling wave.

Stochastic simulation of reaction-diffusion systems: A fluctuating-hydrodynamics approach

DOE PAGES

Kim, Changho; Nonaka, Andy; Bell, John B.; ...

2017-03-24

Here, we develop numerical methods for stochastic reaction-diffusion systems based on approaches used for fluctuating hydrodynamics (FHD). For hydrodynamic systems, the FHD formulation is formally described by stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). In the reaction-diffusion systems we consider, our model becomes similar to the reaction-diffusion master equation (RDME) description when our SPDEs are spatially discretized and reactions are modeled as a source term having Poisson fluctuations. However, unlike the RDME, which becomes prohibitively expensive for an increasing number of molecules, our FHD-based description naturally extends from the regime where fluctuations are strong, i.e., each mesoscopic cell has few (reactive) molecules,more » to regimes with moderate or weak fluctuations, and ultimately to the deterministic limit. By treating diffusion implicitly, we avoid the severe restriction on time step size that limits all methods based on explicit treatments of diffusion and construct numerical methods that are more efficient than RDME methods, without compromising accuracy. Guided by an analysis of the accuracy of the distribution of steady-state fluctuations for the linearized reaction-diffusion model, we construct several two-stage (predictor-corrector) schemes, where diffusion is treated using a stochastic Crank-Nicolson method, and reactions are handled by the stochastic simulation algorithm of Gillespie or a weakly second-order tau leaping method. We find that an implicit midpoint tau leaping scheme attains second-order weak accuracy in the linearized setting and gives an accurate and stable structure factor for a time step size of an order of magnitude larger than the hopping time scale of diffusing molecules. We study the numerical accuracy of our methods for the Schlögl reaction-diffusion model both in and out of thermodynamic equilibrium. We demonstrate and quantify the importance of thermodynamic fluctuations to the formation of a two-dimensional Turing-like pattern and examine the effect of fluctuations on three-dimensional chemical front propagation. Furthermore, by comparing stochastic simulations to deterministic reaction-diffusion simulations, we show that fluctuations accelerate pattern formation in spatially homogeneous systems and lead to a qualitatively different disordered pattern behind a traveling wave.« less

Comparison of probabilistic and deterministic fiber tracking of cranial nerves.

PubMed

Zolal, Amir; Sobottka, Stephan B; Podlesek, Dino; Linn, Jennifer; Rieger, Bernhard; Juratli, Tareq A; Schackert, Gabriele; Kitzler, Hagen H

2017-09-01

OBJECTIVE The depiction of cranial nerves (CNs) using diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) is of great interest in skull base tumor surgery and DTI used with deterministic tracking methods has been reported previously. However, there are still no good methods usable for the elimination of noise from the resulting depictions. The authors have hypothesized that probabilistic tracking could lead to more accurate results, because it more efficiently extracts information from the underlying data. Moreover, the authors have adapted a previously described technique for noise elimination using gradual threshold increases to probabilistic tracking. To evaluate the utility of this new approach, a comparison is provided with this work between the gradual threshold increase method in probabilistic and deterministic tracking of CNs. METHODS Both tracking methods were used to depict CNs II, III, V, and the VII+VIII bundle. Depiction of 240 CNs was attempted with each of the above methods in 30 healthy subjects, which were obtained from 2 public databases: the Kirby repository (KR) and Human Connectome Project (HCP). Elimination of erroneous fibers was attempted by gradually increasing the respective thresholds (fractional anisotropy [FA] and probabilistic index of connectivity [PICo]). The results were compared with predefined ground truth images based on corresponding anatomical scans. Two label overlap measures (false-positive error and Dice similarity coefficient) were used to evaluate the success of both methods in depicting the CN. Moreover, the differences between these parameters obtained from the KR and HCP (with higher angular resolution) databases were evaluated. Additionally, visualization of 10 CNs in 5 clinical cases was attempted with both methods and evaluated by comparing the depictions with intraoperative findings. RESULTS Maximum Dice similarity coefficients were significantly higher with probabilistic tracking (p < 0.001; Wilcoxon signed-rank test). The false-positive error of the last obtained depiction was also significantly lower in probabilistic than in deterministic tracking (p < 0.001). The HCP data yielded significantly better results in terms of the Dice coefficient in probabilistic tracking (p < 0.001, Mann-Whitney U-test) and in deterministic tracking (p = 0.02). The false-positive errors were smaller in HCP data in deterministic tracking (p < 0.001) and showed a strong trend toward significance in probabilistic tracking (p = 0.06). In the clinical cases, the probabilistic method visualized 7 of 10 attempted CNs accurately, compared with 3 correct depictions with deterministic tracking. CONCLUSIONS High angular resolution DTI scans are preferable for the DTI-based depiction of the cranial nerves. Probabilistic tracking with a gradual PICo threshold increase is more effective for this task than the previously described deterministic tracking with a gradual FA threshold increase and might represent a method that is useful for depicting cranial nerves with DTI since it eliminates the erroneous fibers without manual intervention.

Nuclear and radiological terrorism: continuing education article.

PubMed

Anderson, Peter D; Bokor, Gyula

2013-06-01

Terrorism involving radioactive materials includes improvised nuclear devices, radiation exposure devices, contamination of food sources, radiation dispersal devices, or an attack on a nuclear power plant or a facility/vehicle that houses radioactive materials. Ionizing radiation removes electrons from atoms and changes the valence of the electrons enabling chemical reactions with elements that normally do not occur. Ionizing radiation includes alpha rays, beta rays, gamma rays, and neutron radiation. The effects of radiation consist of stochastic and deterministic effects. Cancer is the typical example of a stochastic effect of radiation. Deterministic effects include acute radiation syndrome (ARS). The hallmarks of ARS are damage to the skin, gastrointestinal tract, hematopoietic tissue, and in severe cases the neurovascular structures. Radiation produces psychological effects in addition to physiological effects. Radioisotopes relevant to terrorism include titrium, americium 241, cesium 137, cobalt 60, iodine 131, plutonium 238, califormium 252, iridium 192, uranium 235, and strontium 90. Medications used for treating a radiation exposure include antiemetics, colony-stimulating factors, antibiotics, electrolytes, potassium iodine, and chelating agents.

STOCHASTIC OPTICS: A SCATTERING MITIGATION FRAMEWORK FOR RADIO INTERFEROMETRIC IMAGING

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, Michael D., E-mail: mjohnson@cfa.harvard.edu

2016-12-10

Just as turbulence in the Earth’s atmosphere can severely limit the angular resolution of optical telescopes, turbulence in the ionized interstellar medium fundamentally limits the resolution of radio telescopes. We present a scattering mitigation framework for radio imaging with very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) that partially overcomes this limitation. Our framework, “stochastic optics,” derives from a simplification of strong interstellar scattering to separate small-scale (“diffractive”) effects from large-scale (“refractive”) effects, thereby separating deterministic and random contributions to the scattering. Stochastic optics extends traditional synthesis imaging by simultaneously reconstructing an unscattered image and its refractive perturbations. Its advantages over direct imagingmore » come from utilizing the many deterministic properties of the scattering—such as the time-averaged “blurring,” polarization independence, and the deterministic evolution in frequency and time—while still accounting for the stochastic image distortions on large scales. These distortions are identified in the image reconstructions through regularization by their time-averaged power spectrum. Using synthetic data, we show that this framework effectively removes the blurring from diffractive scattering while reducing the spurious image features from refractive scattering. Stochastic optics can provide significant improvements over existing scattering mitigation strategies and is especially promising for imaging the Galactic Center supermassive black hole, Sagittarius A*, with the Global mm-VLBI Array and with the Event Horizon Telescope.« less

Deterministic and Stochastic Analysis of a Prey-Dependent Predator-Prey System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maiti, Alakes; Samanta, G. P.

2005-01-01

This paper reports on studies of the deterministic and stochastic behaviours of a predator-prey system with prey-dependent response function. The first part of the paper deals with the deterministic analysis of uniform boundedness, permanence, stability and bifurcation. In the second part the reproductive and mortality factors of the prey and…

ShinyGPAS: interactive genomic prediction accuracy simulator based on deterministic formulas.

PubMed

Morota, Gota

2017-12-20

Deterministic formulas for the accuracy of genomic predictions highlight the relationships among prediction accuracy and potential factors influencing prediction accuracy prior to performing computationally intensive cross-validation. Visualizing such deterministic formulas in an interactive manner may lead to a better understanding of how genetic factors control prediction accuracy. The software to simulate deterministic formulas for genomic prediction accuracy was implemented in R and encapsulated as a web-based Shiny application. Shiny genomic prediction accuracy simulator (ShinyGPAS) simulates various deterministic formulas and delivers dynamic scatter plots of prediction accuracy versus genetic factors impacting prediction accuracy, while requiring only mouse navigation in a web browser. ShinyGPAS is available at: https://chikudaisei.shinyapps.io/shinygpas/ . ShinyGPAS is a shiny-based interactive genomic prediction accuracy simulator using deterministic formulas. It can be used for interactively exploring potential factors that influence prediction accuracy in genome-enabled prediction, simulating achievable prediction accuracy prior to genotyping individuals, or supporting in-class teaching. ShinyGPAS is open source software and it is hosted online as a freely available web-based resource with an intuitive graphical user interface.

Cost-Utility Analysis of Telemonitoring Interventions for Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) in Germany.

PubMed

Hofer, Florian; Achelrod, Dmitrij; Stargardt, Tom

2016-12-01

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) poses major challenges for health care systems. Previous studies suggest that telemonitoring could be effective in preventing hospitalisations and hence reduce costs. The aim was to evaluate whether telemonitoring interventions for COPD are cost-effective from the perspective of German statutory sickness funds. A cost-utility analysis was conducted using a combination of a Markov model and a decision tree. Telemonitoring as add-on to standard treatment was compared with standard treatment alone. The model consisted of four transition stages to account for COPD severity, and a terminal stage for death. Within each cycle, the frequency of exacerbations as well as outcomes for 2015 costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) for each stage were calculated. Values for input parameters were taken from the literature. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. In the base case, telemonitoring led to an increase in incremental costs (€866 per patient) but also in incremental QALYs (0.05 per patient). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was thus €17,410 per QALY gained. A deterministic sensitivity analysis showed that hospitalisation rate and costs for telemonitoring equipment greatly affected results. The probabilistic ICER averaged €34,432 per QALY (95 % confidence interval 12,161-56,703). We provide evidence that telemonitoring may be cost-effective in Germany from a payer's point of view. This holds even after deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

The concerted calculation of the BN-600 reactor for the deterministic and stochastic codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogdanova, E. V.; Kuznetsov, A. N.

2017-01-01

The solution of the problem of increasing the safety of nuclear power plants implies the existence of complete and reliable information about the processes occurring in the core of a working reactor. Nowadays the Monte-Carlo method is the most general-purpose method used to calculate the neutron-physical characteristic of the reactor. But it is characterized by large time of calculation. Therefore, it may be useful to carry out coupled calculations with stochastic and deterministic codes. This article presents the results of research for possibility of combining stochastic and deterministic algorithms in calculation the reactor BN-600. This is only one part of the work, which was carried out in the framework of the graduation project at the NRC “Kurchatov Institute” in cooperation with S. S. Gorodkov and M. A. Kalugin. It is considering the 2-D layer of the BN-600 reactor core from the international benchmark test, published in the report IAEA-TECDOC-1623. Calculations of the reactor were performed with MCU code and then with a standard operative diffusion algorithm with constants taken from the Monte - Carlo computation. Macro cross-section, diffusion coefficients, the effective multiplication factor and the distribution of neutron flux and power were obtained in 15 energy groups. The reasonable agreement between stochastic and deterministic calculations of the BN-600 is observed.

International Conference on Antennas and Propagation (ICAP 89), 6th, University of Warwick, Coventry, England, Apr. 4-7, 1989, Proceedings. Part 1 - Antennas. Part 2 - Propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Various papers on antennas and propagation are presented. The general topics addressed include: phased arrays; reflector antennas; slant path propagation; propagation data for HF radio systems performance; satellite and earth station antennas; radio propagation in the troposphere; propagation data for HF radio systems performance; microstrip antennas; rain radio meteorology; conformal antennas; horns and feed antennas; low elevation slant path propagation; radio millimeter wave propagation; array antennas; propagation effects on satellite mobile, satellite broadcast, and aeronautical systems; ionospheric irregularities and motions; adaptive antennas; transient response; measurement techniques; clear air radio meteorology; ionospheric and propagation modeling; millimeter wave and lens antennas; electromagnetic theory and numerical techniques; VHF propagation modeling, system planning methods; radio propagation theoretical techniques; scattering and diffraction; transhorizon rain scatter effects; ELF-VHF and broadcast antennas; clear air millimeter propagation; scattering and frequency-selective surfaces; antenna technology; clear air transhorizon propagation.

Field Evaluation of an Avian Risk Assessment Model

EPA Science Inventory

We conducted two laboratory subacute dietary toxicity tests and one outdoor subacute dietary toxicity test to determine the effectiveness of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's deterministic risk assessment model for evaluating the potential of adverse effects to birds in ...

Probabilistic Solar Wind Forecasting Using Large Ensembles of Near-Sun Conditions With a Simple One-Dimensional "Upwind" Scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Owens, Mathew J.; Riley, Pete

2017-11-01

Long lead-time space-weather forecasting requires accurate prediction of the near-Earth solar wind. The current state of the art uses a coronal model to extrapolate the observed photospheric magnetic field to the upper corona, where it is related to solar wind speed through empirical relations. These near-Sun solar wind and magnetic field conditions provide the inner boundary condition to three-dimensional numerical magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of the heliosphere out to 1 AU. This physics-based approach can capture dynamic processes within the solar wind, which affect the resulting conditions in near-Earth space. However, this deterministic approach lacks a quantification of forecast uncertainty. Here we describe a complementary method to exploit the near-Sun solar wind information produced by coronal models and provide a quantitative estimate of forecast uncertainty. By sampling the near-Sun solar wind speed at a range of latitudes about the sub-Earth point, we produce a large ensemble (N = 576) of time series at the base of the Sun-Earth line. Propagating these conditions to Earth by a three-dimensional MHD model would be computationally prohibitive; thus, a computationally efficient one-dimensional "upwind" scheme is used. The variance in the resulting near-Earth solar wind speed ensemble is shown to provide an accurate measure of the forecast uncertainty. Applying this technique over 1996-2016, the upwind ensemble is found to provide a more "actionable" forecast than a single deterministic forecast; potential economic value is increased for all operational scenarios, but particularly when false alarms are important (i.e., where the cost of taking mitigating action is relatively large).

Probabilistic Solar Wind Forecasting Using Large Ensembles of Near-Sun Conditions With a Simple One-Dimensional "Upwind" Scheme.

PubMed

Owens, Mathew J; Riley, Pete

2017-11-01

Long lead-time space-weather forecasting requires accurate prediction of the near-Earth solar wind. The current state of the art uses a coronal model to extrapolate the observed photospheric magnetic field to the upper corona, where it is related to solar wind speed through empirical relations. These near-Sun solar wind and magnetic field conditions provide the inner boundary condition to three-dimensional numerical magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of the heliosphere out to 1 AU. This physics-based approach can capture dynamic processes within the solar wind, which affect the resulting conditions in near-Earth space. However, this deterministic approach lacks a quantification of forecast uncertainty. Here we describe a complementary method to exploit the near-Sun solar wind information produced by coronal models and provide a quantitative estimate of forecast uncertainty. By sampling the near-Sun solar wind speed at a range of latitudes about the sub-Earth point, we produce a large ensemble (N = 576) of time series at the base of the Sun-Earth line. Propagating these conditions to Earth by a three-dimensional MHD model would be computationally prohibitive; thus, a computationally efficient one-dimensional "upwind" scheme is used. The variance in the resulting near-Earth solar wind speed ensemble is shown to provide an accurate measure of the forecast uncertainty. Applying this technique over 1996-2016, the upwind ensemble is found to provide a more "actionable" forecast than a single deterministic forecast; potential economic value is increased for all operational scenarios, but particularly when false alarms are important (i.e., where the cost of taking mitigating action is relatively large).

Particle Diffusion in Chaotic Magnetic Fields Generated by Asymmetric Current Configurations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ram, A. K.; Dasgupta, B.

2008-12-01

The observed cross-field diffusion of charged particles in cosmic rays is assumed to be due to the chaotic nature of the interplanetary/intergalactic magnetic fields. Among the classic works on this subject have been those of Parker [1] and Jokipii [2]. Parker considered the passage of cosmic ray particles and energetic solar particles in a large scale magnetic field containing small scale irregularities. In the context of cosmic ray propagation, Jokipii considered a small fluctuating component, added on to a uniform magnetic field, to study the spatial transport of particles. In these studies the irregular component of the magnetic field is prescribed in an ad hoc fashion. In contrast, we consider asymmetric, nonlinear, steady-state magnetic fields, in three spatial dimensions, generated by currents flowing in circular loops and straight lines [3]. These magnetic fields are completely deterministic and, for certain range of parameters, chaotic. We will present analytical and numerical studies on the spatial characteristics of these fields. The motion of charged particles in the nonlinear and chaotic magnetic fields is determined using the Lorentz equation. A particle moving in a deterministic chaotic magnetic field superposed on a uniform background magnetic field is found to undergo spatial transport. This shows that chaotic magnetic fields generated by simple current configurations can produce cross-field diffusion. A detailed analysis of particle motion and diffusion along with application to space plasmas will be presented. [1] E.N. Parker, Planet. Space Sci. 13, 9 (1965). [2] J.R. Jokipii, Astrophys. J. 146, 480 (1966), and J.R. Jokipii, Astrophys. J. 149, 405 (1967). [3] A.K. Ram and B. Dasgupta, Eos Trans. AGU 87 (52), Fall Meet. Suppl. Abstract NG31B-1593 (2006); and Eos Trans. AGU 88 (52), Fall Meet. Suppl. Abstract NG21B-0522 (2007).

Probabilistic Solar Wind Forecasting Using Large Ensembles of Near‐Sun Conditions With a Simple One‐Dimensional “Upwind” Scheme

PubMed Central

Riley, Pete

2017-01-01

Abstract Long lead‐time space‐weather forecasting requires accurate prediction of the near‐Earth solar wind. The current state of the art uses a coronal model to extrapolate the observed photospheric magnetic field to the upper corona, where it is related to solar wind speed through empirical relations. These near‐Sun solar wind and magnetic field conditions provide the inner boundary condition to three‐dimensional numerical magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of the heliosphere out to 1 AU. This physics‐based approach can capture dynamic processes within the solar wind, which affect the resulting conditions in near‐Earth space. However, this deterministic approach lacks a quantification of forecast uncertainty. Here we describe a complementary method to exploit the near‐Sun solar wind information produced by coronal models and provide a quantitative estimate of forecast uncertainty. By sampling the near‐Sun solar wind speed at a range of latitudes about the sub‐Earth point, we produce a large ensemble (N = 576) of time series at the base of the Sun‐Earth line. Propagating these conditions to Earth by a three‐dimensional MHD model would be computationally prohibitive; thus, a computationally efficient one‐dimensional “upwind” scheme is used. The variance in the resulting near‐Earth solar wind speed ensemble is shown to provide an accurate measure of the forecast uncertainty. Applying this technique over 1996–2016, the upwind ensemble is found to provide a more “actionable” forecast than a single deterministic forecast; potential economic value is increased for all operational scenarios, but particularly when false alarms are important (i.e., where the cost of taking mitigating action is relatively large). PMID:29398982

MIMICKING COUNTERFACTUAL OUTCOMES TO ESTIMATE CAUSAL EFFECTS.

PubMed

Lok, Judith J

2017-04-01

In observational studies, treatment may be adapted to covariates at several times without a fixed protocol, in continuous time. Treatment influences covariates, which influence treatment, which influences covariates, and so on. Then even time-dependent Cox-models cannot be used to estimate the net treatment effect. Structural nested models have been applied in this setting. Structural nested models are based on counterfactuals: the outcome a person would have had had treatment been withheld after a certain time. Previous work on continuous-time structural nested models assumes that counterfactuals depend deterministically on observed data, while conjecturing that this assumption can be relaxed. This article proves that one can mimic counterfactuals by constructing random variables, solutions to a differential equation, that have the same distribution as the counterfactuals, even given past observed data. These "mimicking" variables can be used to estimate the parameters of structural nested models without assuming the treatment effect to be deterministic.

Verification of screening level for decontamination implemented after Fukushima nuclear accident

PubMed Central

Ogino, Haruyuki; Ichiji, Takeshi; Hattori, Takatoshi

2012-01-01

The screening level for decontamination that has been applied for the surface of the human body and contaminated handled objects after the Fukushima nuclear accident was verified by assessing the doses that arise from external irradiation, ingestion, inhalation and skin contamination. The result shows that the annual effective dose that arises from handled objects contaminated with the screening level for decontamination (i.e. 100 000 counts per minute) is <1 mSv y−1, which can be considered as the intervention exemption level in accordance with the International Commission on Radiological Protection recommendations. Furthermore, the screening level is also found to protect the skin from the incidence of a deterministic effect because the absorbed dose of the skin that arises from direct deposition on the surface of the human body is calculated to be lower than the threshold of the deterministic effect assuming a practical exposure duration. PMID:22228683

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Y M; Bush, K; Han, B

Purpose: Accurate and fast dose calculation is a prerequisite of precision radiation therapy in modern photon and particle therapy. While Monte Carlo (MC) dose calculation provides high dosimetric accuracy, the drastically increased computational time hinders its routine use. Deterministic dose calculation methods are fast, but problematic in the presence of tissue density inhomogeneity. We leverage the useful features of deterministic methods and MC to develop a hybrid dose calculation platform with autonomous utilization of MC and deterministic calculation depending on the local geometry, for optimal accuracy and speed. Methods: Our platform utilizes a Geant4 based “localized Monte Carlo” (LMC) methodmore » that isolates MC dose calculations only to volumes that have potential for dosimetric inaccuracy. In our approach, additional structures are created encompassing heterogeneous volumes. Deterministic methods calculate dose and energy fluence up to the volume surfaces, where the energy fluence distribution is sampled into discrete histories and transported using MC. Histories exiting the volume are converted back into energy fluence, and transported deterministically. By matching boundary conditions at both interfaces, deterministic dose calculation account for dose perturbations “downstream” of localized heterogeneities. Hybrid dose calculation was performed for water and anthropomorphic phantoms. Results: We achieved <1% agreement between deterministic and MC calculations in the water benchmark for photon and proton beams, and dose differences of 2%–15% could be observed in heterogeneous phantoms. The saving in computational time (a factor ∼4–7 compared to a full Monte Carlo dose calculation) was found to be approximately proportional to the volume of the heterogeneous region. Conclusion: Our hybrid dose calculation approach takes advantage of the computational efficiency of deterministic method and accuracy of MC, providing a practical tool for high performance dose calculation in modern RT. The approach is generalizable to all modalities where heterogeneities play a large role, notably particle therapy.« less

The past, present and future of cyber-physical systems: a focus on models.

PubMed

Lee, Edward A

2015-02-26

This paper is about better engineering of cyber-physical systems (CPSs) through better models. Deterministic models have historically proven extremely useful and arguably form the kingpin of the industrial revolution and the digital and information technology revolutions. Key deterministic models that have proven successful include differential equations, synchronous digital logic and single-threaded imperative programs. Cyber-physical systems, however, combine these models in such a way that determinism is not preserved. Two projects show that deterministic CPS models with faithful physical realizations are possible and practical. The first project is PRET, which shows that the timing precision of synchronous digital logic can be practically made available at the software level of abstraction. The second project is Ptides (programming temporally-integrated distributed embedded systems), which shows that deterministic models for distributed cyber-physical systems have practical faithful realizations. These projects are existence proofs that deterministic CPS models are possible and practical.

The Past, Present and Future of Cyber-Physical Systems: A Focus on Models

PubMed Central

Lee, Edward A.

2015-01-01

This paper is about better engineering of cyber-physical systems (CPSs) through better models. Deterministic models have historically proven extremely useful and arguably form the kingpin of the industrial revolution and the digital and information technology revolutions. Key deterministic models that have proven successful include differential equations, synchronous digital logic and single-threaded imperative programs. Cyber-physical systems, however, combine these models in such a way that determinism is not preserved. Two projects show that deterministic CPS models with faithful physical realizations are possible and practical. The first project is PRET, which shows that the timing precision of synchronous digital logic can be practically made available at the software level of abstraction. The second project is Ptides (programming temporally-integrated distributed embedded systems), which shows that deterministic models for distributed cyber-physical systems have practical faithful realizations. These projects are existence proofs that deterministic CPS models are possible and practical. PMID:25730486

Finite-size effects and switching times for Moran process with mutation.

PubMed

DeVille, Lee; Galiardi, Meghan

2017-04-01

We consider the Moran process with two populations competing under an iterated Prisoner's Dilemma in the presence of mutation, and concentrate on the case where there are multiple evolutionarily stable strategies. We perform a complete bifurcation analysis of the deterministic system which arises in the infinite population size. We also study the Master equation and obtain asymptotics for the invariant distribution and metastable switching times for the stochastic process in the case of large but finite population. We also show that the stochastic system has asymmetries in the form of a skew for parameter values where the deterministic limit is symmetric.

Effect of users' opinion evolution on information diffusion in online social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Hengmin; Kong, Yuehan; Wei, Jing; Ma, Jing

2018-02-01

The process of topic propagation always interweaves information diffusion and opinion evolution, but most previous works studied the models of information diffusion and opinion evolution separately, and seldom focused on their interaction of each other. To shed light on the effect of users' opinion evolution on information diffusion in online social networks, we proposed a model which incorporates opinion evolution into the process of topic propagation. Several real topics propagating on Sina Microblog were collected to analyze individuals' propagation intentions, and different propagation intentions were considered in the model. The topic propagation was simulated to explore the impact of different opinion distributions and intervention with opposite opinion on information diffusion. Results show that the topic with one-sided opinions can spread faster and more widely, and intervention with opposite opinion is an effective measure to guide the topic propagation. The earlier to intervene, the more effectively the topic propagation would be guided.

Uncertainties in the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman source through nonlinear stochastic inversion of tsunami waves

PubMed Central

Venugopal, M.; Roy, D.; Rajendran, K.; Guillas, S.; Dias, F.

2017-01-01

Numerical inversions for earthquake source parameters from tsunami wave data usually incorporate subjective elements to stabilize the search. In addition, noisy and possibly insufficient data result in instability and non-uniqueness in most deterministic inversions, which are barely acknowledged. Here, we employ the satellite altimetry data for the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman tsunami event to invert the source parameters. We also include kinematic parameters that improve the description of tsunami generation and propagation, especially near the source. Using a finite fault model that represents the extent of rupture and the geometry of the trench, we perform a new type of nonlinear joint inversion of the slips, rupture velocities and rise times with minimal a priori constraints. Despite persistently good waveform fits, large uncertainties in the joint parameter distribution constitute a remarkable feature of the inversion. These uncertainties suggest that objective inversion strategies should incorporate more sophisticated physical models of seabed deformation in order to significantly improve the performance of early warning systems. PMID:28989311

Deterministic propagation model for RFID using site-specific and FDTD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunha de Azambuja, Marcelo; Passuelo Hessel, Fabiano; Luís Berz, Everton; Bauermann Porfírio, Leandro; Ruhnke Valério, Paula; De Pieri Baladei, Suely; Jung, Carlos Fernando

2015-06-01

The conduction of experiments to evaluate a tag orientation and its readability in a laboratory offers great potential for reducing time and costs for users. This article presents a novel methodology for developing simulation models for RFID (radio-frequency identification) environments. The main challenges in adopting this model are: (1) to find out how the properties of each one of the materials, on which the tag is applied, influence the read range and to determine the necessary power for tag reading and (2) to find out the power of the backscattered signal received by the tag when energised by the RF wave transmitted by the reader. The validation tests, performed in four different kinds of environments, with tags applied to six different kinds of materials, six different distances and with a reader configured with three different powers, showed achievements on the average of 95.3% accuracy in the best scenario and 87.0% in the worst scenario. The methodology can be easily duplicated to generate simulation models to other different RFID environments.

Non-Gaussian Correlations between Reflected and Transmitted Intensity Patterns Emerging from Opaque Disordered Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Starshynov, I.; Paniagua-Diaz, A. M.; Fayard, N.; Goetschy, A.; Pierrat, R.; Carminati, R.; Bertolotti, J.

2018-04-01

The propagation of monochromatic light through a scattering medium produces speckle patterns in reflection and transmission, and the apparent randomness of these patterns prevents direct imaging through thick turbid media. Yet, since elastic multiple scattering is fundamentally a linear and deterministic process, information is not lost but distributed among many degrees of freedom that can be resolved and manipulated. Here, we demonstrate experimentally that the reflected and transmitted speckle patterns are robustly correlated, and we unravel all the complex and unexpected features of this fundamentally non-Gaussian and long-range correlation. In particular, we show that it is preserved even for opaque media with thickness much larger than the scattering mean free path, proving that information survives the multiple scattering process and can be recovered. The existence of correlations between the two sides of a scattering medium opens up new possibilities for the control of transmitted light without any feedback from the target side, but using only information gathered from the reflected speckle.

A discrete classical space-time could require 6 extra-dimensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillemant, Philippe; Medale, Marc; Abid, Cherifa

2018-01-01

We consider a discrete space-time in which conservation laws are computed in such a way that the density of information is kept bounded. We use a 2D billiard as a toy model to compute the uncertainty propagation in ball positions after every shock and the corresponding loss of phase information. Our main result is the computation of a critical time step above which billiard calculations are no longer deterministic, meaning that a multiverse of distinct billiard histories begins to appear, caused by the lack of information. Then, we highlight unexpected properties of this critical time step and the subsequent exponential evolution of the number of histories with time, to observe that after certain duration all billiard states could become possible final states, independent of initial conditions. We conclude that if our space-time is really a discrete one, one would need to introduce extra-dimensions in order to provide supplementary constraints that specify which history should be played.

Uncertainties in the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman source through nonlinear stochastic inversion of tsunami waves.

PubMed

Gopinathan, D; Venugopal, M; Roy, D; Rajendran, K; Guillas, S; Dias, F

2017-09-01

Numerical inversions for earthquake source parameters from tsunami wave data usually incorporate subjective elements to stabilize the search. In addition, noisy and possibly insufficient data result in instability and non-uniqueness in most deterministic inversions, which are barely acknowledged. Here, we employ the satellite altimetry data for the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman tsunami event to invert the source parameters. We also include kinematic parameters that improve the description of tsunami generation and propagation, especially near the source. Using a finite fault model that represents the extent of rupture and the geometry of the trench, we perform a new type of nonlinear joint inversion of the slips, rupture velocities and rise times with minimal a priori constraints. Despite persistently good waveform fits, large uncertainties in the joint parameter distribution constitute a remarkable feature of the inversion. These uncertainties suggest that objective inversion strategies should incorporate more sophisticated physical models of seabed deformation in order to significantly improve the performance of early warning systems.

A deterministic model for highly contagious diseases: The case of varicella

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acedo, L.; Moraño, J.-A.; Santonja, F.-J.; Villanueva, R.-J.

2016-05-01

The classic nonlinear Kermack-McKendrick model based upon a system of differential equations has been widely applied to model the rise and fall of global pandemic and also seasonal epidemic by introducing a forced harmonic infectivity which would change throughout the year. These methods work well in their respective domains of applicability, and for certain diseases, but they fail when both seasonality and high infectivity are combined. In this paper we consider a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered, or SIR, model with two latent states to model the propagation and evolutionary history of varicella in humans. We show that infectivity can be calculated from real data and we find a nonstandard seasonal variation that cannot be fitted with a single harmonic. Moreover, we show that infectivity for the present strains of the virus has raised following a sigmoid function in a period of several centuries. This could allow the design of vaccination strategies and the study of the epidemiology of varicella and herpes zoster.

Strong SH-to-Love wave scattering off the Southern California Continental Borderland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yu, Chunquan; Zhan, Zhongwen; Hauksson, Egill; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

2017-01-01

Seismic scattering is commonly observed and results from wave propagation in heterogeneous medium. Yet, deterministic characterization of scatterers associated with lateral heterogeneities remains challenging. In this study, we analyze broadband waveforms recorded by the Southern California Seismic Network and observe strongly scattered Love waves following the arrival of teleseismic SH wave. These scattered Love waves travel approximately in the same (azimuthal) direction as the incident SH wave at a dominant period of ~10 s but at an apparent velocity of ~3.6 km/s as compared to the ~11 km/s for the SH wave. Back-projection suggests that this strong scattering is associated with pronounced bathymetric relief in the Southern California Continental Borderland, in particular the Patton Escarpment. Finite-difference simulations using a simplified 2-D bathymetric and crustal model are able to predict the arrival times and amplitudes of major scatterers. The modeling suggests a relatively low shear wave velocity in the Continental Borderland.

A Vertically Lagrangian Finite-Volume Dynamical Core for Global Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Shian-Jiann

2003-01-01

A finite-volume dynamical core with a terrain-following Lagrangian control-volume discretization is described. The vertically Lagrangian discretization reduces the dimensionality of the physical problem from three to two with the resulting dynamical system closely resembling that of the shallow water dynamical system. The 2D horizontal-to-Lagrangian-surface transport and dynamical processes are then discretized using the genuinely conservative flux-form semi-Lagrangian algorithm. Time marching is split- explicit, with large-time-step for scalar transport, and small fractional time step for the Lagrangian dynamics, which permits the accurate propagation of fast waves. A mass, momentum, and total energy conserving algorithm is developed for mapping the state variables periodically from the floating Lagrangian control-volume to an Eulerian terrain-following coordinate for dealing with physical parameterizations and to prevent severe distortion of the Lagrangian surfaces. Deterministic baroclinic wave growth tests and long-term integrations using the Held-Suarez forcing are presented. Impact of the monotonicity constraint is discussed.

Stability analysis of multi-group deterministic and stochastic epidemic models with vaccination rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhi-Gang; Gao, Rui-Mei; Fan, Xiao-Ming; Han, Qi-Xing

2014-09-01

We discuss in this paper a deterministic multi-group MSIR epidemic model with a vaccination rate, the basic reproduction number ℛ0, a key parameter in epidemiology, is a threshold which determines the persistence or extinction of the disease. By using Lyapunov function techniques, we show if ℛ0 is greater than 1 and the deterministic model obeys some conditions, then the disease will prevail, the infective persists and the endemic state is asymptotically stable in a feasible region. If ℛ0 is less than or equal to 1, then the infective disappear so the disease dies out. In addition, stochastic noises around the endemic equilibrium will be added to the deterministic MSIR model in order that the deterministic model is extended to a system of stochastic ordinary differential equations. In the stochastic version, we carry out a detailed analysis on the asymptotic behavior of the stochastic model. In addition, regarding the value of ℛ0, when the stochastic system obeys some conditions and ℛ0 is greater than 1, we deduce the stochastic system is stochastically asymptotically stable. Finally, the deterministic and stochastic model dynamics are illustrated through computer simulations.

Validity of deterministic record linkage using multiple indirect personal identifiers: linking a large registry to claims data.

PubMed

Setoguchi, Soko; Zhu, Ying; Jalbert, Jessica J; Williams, Lauren A; Chen, Chih-Ying

2014-05-01

Linking patient registries with administrative databases can enhance the utility of the databases for epidemiological and comparative effectiveness research. However, registries often lack direct personal identifiers, and the validity of record linkage using multiple indirect personal identifiers is not well understood. Using a large contemporary national cardiovascular device registry and 100% Medicare inpatient data, we linked hospitalization-level records. The main outcomes were the validity measures of several deterministic linkage rules using multiple indirect personal identifiers compared with rules using both direct and indirect personal identifiers. Linkage rules using 2 or 3 indirect, patient-level identifiers (ie, date of birth, sex, admission date) and hospital ID produced linkages with sensitivity of 95% and specificity of 98% compared with a gold standard linkage rule using a combination of both direct and indirect identifiers. Ours is the first large-scale study to validate the performance of deterministic linkage rules without direct personal identifiers. When linking hospitalization-level records in the absence of direct personal identifiers, provider information is necessary for successful linkage. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

The Deterministic Information Bottleneck

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strouse, D. J.; Schwab, David

2015-03-01

A fundamental and ubiquitous task that all organisms face is prediction of the future based on past sensory experience. Since an individual's memory resources are limited and costly, however, there is a tradeoff between memory cost and predictive payoff. The information bottleneck (IB) method (Tishby, Pereira, & Bialek 2000) formulates this tradeoff as a mathematical optimization problem using an information theoretic cost function. IB encourages storing as few bits of past sensory input as possible while selectively preserving the bits that are most predictive of the future. Here we introduce an alternative formulation of the IB method, which we call the deterministic information bottleneck (DIB). First, we argue for an alternative cost function, which better represents the biologically-motivated goal of minimizing required memory resources. Then, we show that this seemingly minor change has the dramatic effect of converting the optimal memory encoder from stochastic to deterministic. Next, we propose an iterative algorithm for solving the DIB problem. Additionally, we compare the IB and DIB methods on a variety of synthetic datasets, and examine the performance of retinal ganglion cell populations relative to the optimal encoding strategy for each problem.

Analysis of stochastic model for non-linear volcanic dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandrov, D.; Bashkirtseva, I.; Ryashko, L.

2014-12-01

Motivated by important geophysical applications we consider a dynamic model of the magma-plug system previously derived by Iverson et al. (2006) under the influence of stochastic forcing. Due to strong nonlinearity of the friction force for solid plug along its margins, the initial deterministic system exhibits impulsive oscillations. Two types of dynamic behavior of the system under the influence of the parametric stochastic forcing have been found: random trajectories are scattered on both sides of the deterministic cycle or grouped on its internal side only. It is shown that dispersions are highly inhomogeneous along cycles in the presence of noises. The effects of noise-induced shifts, pressure stabilization and localization of random trajectories have been revealed with increasing the noise intensity. The plug velocity, pressure and displacement are highly dependent of noise intensity as well. These new stochastic phenomena are related with the nonlinear peculiarities of the deterministic phase portrait. It is demonstrated that the repetitive stick-slip motions of the magma-plug system in the case of stochastic forcing can be connected with drumbeat earthquakes.

A random walk on water (Henry Darcy Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutsoyiannis, D.

2009-04-01

Randomness and uncertainty had been well appreciated in hydrology and water resources engineering in their initial steps as scientific disciplines. However, this changed through the years and, following other geosciences, hydrology adopted a naïve view of randomness in natural processes. Such a view separates natural phenomena into two mutually exclusive types, random or stochastic, and deterministic. When a classification of a specific process into one of these two types fails, then a separation of the process into two different, usually additive, parts is typically devised, each of which may be further subdivided into subparts (e.g., deterministic subparts such as periodic and aperiodic or trends). This dichotomous logic is typically combined with a manichean perception, in which the deterministic part supposedly represents cause-effect relationships and thus is physics and science (the "good"), whereas randomness has little relationship with science and no relationship with understanding (the "evil"). Probability theory and statistics, which traditionally provided the tools for dealing with randomness and uncertainty, have been regarded by some as the "necessary evil" but not as an essential part of hydrology and geophysics. Some took a step further to banish them from hydrology, replacing them with deterministic sensitivity analysis and fuzzy-logic representations. Others attempted to demonstrate that irregular fluctuations observed in natural processes are au fond manifestations of underlying chaotic deterministic dynamics with low dimensionality, thus attempting to render probabilistic descriptions unnecessary. Some of the above recent developments are simply flawed because they make erroneous use of probability and statistics (which, remarkably, provide the tools for such analyses), whereas the entire underlying logic is just a false dichotomy. To see this, it suffices to recall that Pierre Simon Laplace, perhaps the most famous proponent of determinism in the history of philosophy of science (cf. Laplace's demon), is, at the same time, one of the founders of probability theory, which he regarded as "nothing but common sense reduced to calculation". This harmonizes with James Clerk Maxwell's view that "the true logic for this world is the calculus of Probabilities" and was more recently and epigrammatically formulated in the title of Edwin Thompson Jaynes's book "Probability Theory: The Logic of Science" (2003). Abandoning dichotomous logic, either on ontological or epistemic grounds, we can identify randomness or stochasticity with unpredictability. Admitting that (a) uncertainty is an intrinsic property of nature; (b) causality implies dependence of natural processes in time and thus suggests predictability; but, (c) even the tiniest uncertainty (e.g., in initial conditions) may result in unpredictability after a certain time horizon, we may shape a stochastic representation of natural processes that is consistent with Karl Popper's indeterministic world view. In this representation, probability quantifies uncertainty according to the Kolmogorov system, in which probability is a normalized measure, i.e., a function that maps sets (areas where the initial conditions or the parameter values lie) to real numbers (in the interval [0, 1]). In such a representation, predictability (suggested by deterministic laws) and unpredictability (randomness) coexist, are not separable or additive components, and it is a matter of specifying the time horizon of prediction to decide which of the two dominates. An elementary numerical example has been devised to illustrate the above ideas and demonstrate that they offer a pragmatic and useful guide for practice, rather than just pertaining to philosophical discussions. A chaotic model, with fully and a priori known deterministic dynamics and deterministic inputs (without any random agent), is assumed to represent the hydrological balance in an area partly covered by vegetation. Experimentation with this toy model demonstrates, inter alia, that: (1) for short time horizons the deterministic dynamics is able to give good predictions; but (2) these predictions become extremely inaccurate and useless for long time horizons; (3) for such horizons a naïve statistical prediction (average of past data) which fully neglects the deterministic dynamics is more skilful; and (4) if this statistical prediction, in addition to past data, is combined with the probability theory (the principle of maximum entropy, in particular), it can provide a more informative prediction. Also, the toy model shows that the trajectories of the system state (and derivative properties thereof) do not resemble a regular (e.g., periodic) deterministic process nor a purely random process, but exhibit patterns indicating anti-persistence and persistence (where the latter statistically complies with a Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour). If the process is averaged over long time scales, the anti-persistent behaviour improves predictability, whereas the persistent behaviour substantially deteriorates it. A stochastic representation of this deterministic system, which incorporates dynamics, is not only possible, but also powerful as it provides good predictions for both short and long horizons and helps to decide on when the deterministic dynamics should be considered or neglected. Obviously, a natural system is extremely more complex than this simple toy model and hence unpredictability is naturally even more prominent in the former. In addition, in a complex natural system, we can never know the exact dynamics and we must infer it from past data, which implies additional uncertainty and an additional role of stochastics in the process of formulating the system equations and estimating the involved parameters. Data also offer the only solid grounds to test any hypothesis about the dynamics, and failure of performing such testing against evidence from data renders the hypothesised dynamics worthless. If this perception of natural phenomena is adequately plausible, then it may help in studying interesting fundamental questions regarding the current state and the trends of hydrological and water resources research and their promising future paths. For instance: (i) Will it ever be possible to achieve a fully "physically based" modelling of hydrological systems that will not depend on data or stochastic representations? (ii) To what extent can hydrological uncertainty be reduced and what are the effective means for such reduction? (iii) Are current stochastic methods in hydrology consistent with observed natural behaviours? What paths should we explore for their advancement? (iv) Can deterministic methods provide solid scientific grounds for water resources engineering and management? In particular, can there be risk-free hydraulic engineering and water management? (v) Is the current (particularly important) interface between hydrology and climate satisfactory?. In particular, should hydrology rely on climate models that are not properly validated (i.e., for periods and scales not used in calibration)? In effect, is the evolution of climate and its impacts on water resources deterministically predictable?

Soil erosion assessment - Mind the gap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jongho; Ivanov, Valeriy Y.; Fatichi, Simone

2016-12-01

Accurate assessment of erosion rates remains an elusive problem because soil loss is strongly nonunique with respect to the main drivers. In addressing the mechanistic causes of erosion responses, we discriminate between macroscale effects of external factors - long studied and referred to as "geomorphic external variability", and microscale effects, introduced as "geomorphic internal variability." The latter source of erosion variations represents the knowledge gap, an overlooked but vital element of geomorphic response, significantly impacting the low predictability skill of deterministic models at field-catchment scales. This is corroborated with experiments using a comprehensive physical model that dynamically updates the soil mass and particle composition. As complete knowledge of microscale conditions for arbitrary location and time is infeasible, we propose that new predictive frameworks of soil erosion should embed stochastic components in deterministic assessments of external and internal types of geomorphic variability.

Understanding agent-based models of financial markets: A bottom-up approach based on order parameters and phase diagrams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lye, Ribin; Tan, James Peng Lung; Cheong, Siew Ann

2012-11-01

We describe a bottom-up framework, based on the identification of appropriate order parameters and determination of phase diagrams, for understanding progressively refined agent-based models and simulations of financial markets. We illustrate this framework by starting with a deterministic toy model, whereby N independent traders buy and sell M stocks through an order book that acts as a clearing house. The price of a stock increases whenever it is bought and decreases whenever it is sold. Price changes are updated by the order book before the next transaction takes place. In this deterministic model, all traders based their buy decisions on a call utility function, and all their sell decisions on a put utility function. We then make the agent-based model more realistic, by either having a fraction fb of traders buy a random stock on offer, or a fraction fs of traders sell a random stock in their portfolio. Based on our simulations, we find that it is possible to identify useful order parameters from the steady-state price distributions of all three models. Using these order parameters as a guide, we find three phases: (i) the dead market; (ii) the boom market; and (iii) the jammed market in the phase diagram of the deterministic model. Comparing the phase diagrams of the stochastic models against that of the deterministic model, we realize that the primary effect of stochasticity is to eliminate the dead market phase.

Convergence studies of deterministic methods for LWR explicit reflector methodology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Canepa, S.; Hursin, M.; Ferroukhi, H.

2013-07-01

The standard approach in modem 3-D core simulators, employed either for steady-state or transient simulations, is to use Albedo coefficients or explicit reflectors at the core axial and radial boundaries. In the latter approach, few-group homogenized nuclear data are a priori produced with lattice transport codes using 2-D reflector models. Recently, the explicit reflector methodology of the deterministic CASMO-4/SIMULATE-3 code system was identified to potentially constitute one of the main sources of errors for core analyses of the Swiss operating LWRs, which are all belonging to GII design. Considering that some of the new GIII designs will rely on verymore » different reflector concepts, a review and assessment of the reflector methodology for various LWR designs appeared as relevant. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to first recall the concepts of the explicit reflector modelling approach as employed by CASMO/SIMULATE. Then, for selected reflector configurations representative of both GII and GUI designs, a benchmarking of the few-group nuclear data produced with the deterministic lattice code CASMO-4 and its successor CASMO-5, is conducted. On this basis, a convergence study with regards to geometrical requirements when using deterministic methods with 2-D homogenous models is conducted and the effect on the downstream 3-D core analysis accuracy is evaluated for a typical GII deflector design in order to assess the results against available plant measurements. (authors)« less

A hybrid symplectic principal component analysis and central tendency measure method for detection of determinism in noisy time series with application to mechanomyography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Hong-Bo; Dokos, Socrates

2013-06-01

We present a hybrid symplectic geometry and central tendency measure (CTM) method for detection of determinism in noisy time series. CTM is effective for detecting determinism in short time series and has been applied in many areas of nonlinear analysis. However, its performance significantly degrades in the presence of strong noise. In order to circumvent this difficulty, we propose to use symplectic principal component analysis (SPCA), a new chaotic signal de-noising method, as the first step to recover the system dynamics. CTM is then applied to determine whether the time series arises from a stochastic process or has a deterministic component. Results from numerical experiments, ranging from six benchmark deterministic models to 1/f noise, suggest that the hybrid method can significantly improve detection of determinism in noisy time series by about 20 dB when the data are contaminated by Gaussian noise. Furthermore, we apply our algorithm to study the mechanomyographic (MMG) signals arising from contraction of human skeletal muscle. Results obtained from the hybrid symplectic principal component analysis and central tendency measure demonstrate that the skeletal muscle motor unit dynamics can indeed be deterministic, in agreement with previous studies. However, the conventional CTM method was not able to definitely detect the underlying deterministic dynamics. This result on MMG signal analysis is helpful in understanding neuromuscular control mechanisms and developing MMG-based engineering control applications.

The forecasting research of early warning systems for atmospheric pollutants: A case in Yangtze River Delta region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Yiliao; Qin, Shanshan; Qu, Jiansheng; Liu, Feng

2015-10-01

The issue of air quality regarding PM pollution levels in China is a focus of public attention. To address that issue, to date, a series of studies is in progress, including PM monitoring programs, PM source apportionment, and the enactment of new ambient air quality index standards. However, related research concerning computer modeling for PM future trends estimation is rare, despite its significance to forecasting and early warning systems. Thereby, a study regarding deterministic and interval forecasts of PM is performed. In this study, data on hourly and 12 h-averaged air pollutants are applied to forecast PM concentrations within the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region of China. The characteristics of PM emissions have been primarily examined and analyzed using different distribution functions. To improve the distribution fitting that is crucial for estimating PM levels, an artificial intelligence algorithm is incorporated to select the optimal parameters. Following that step, an ANF model is used to conduct deterministic forecasts of PM. With the identified distributions and deterministic forecasts, different levels of PM intervals are estimated. The results indicate that the lognormal or gamma distributions are highly representative of the recorded PM data with a goodness-of-fit R2 of approximately 0.998. Furthermore, the results of the evaluation metrics (MSE, MAPE and CP, AW) also show high accuracy within the deterministic and interval forecasts of PM, indicating that this method enables the informative and effective quantification of future PM trends.

A hybrid symplectic principal component analysis and central tendency measure method for detection of determinism in noisy time series with application to mechanomyography.

PubMed

Xie, Hong-Bo; Dokos, Socrates

2013-06-01

We present a hybrid symplectic geometry and central tendency measure (CTM) method for detection of determinism in noisy time series. CTM is effective for detecting determinism in short time series and has been applied in many areas of nonlinear analysis. However, its performance significantly degrades in the presence of strong noise. In order to circumvent this difficulty, we propose to use symplectic principal component analysis (SPCA), a new chaotic signal de-noising method, as the first step to recover the system dynamics. CTM is then applied to determine whether the time series arises from a stochastic process or has a deterministic component. Results from numerical experiments, ranging from six benchmark deterministic models to 1/f noise, suggest that the hybrid method can significantly improve detection of determinism in noisy time series by about 20 dB when the data are contaminated by Gaussian noise. Furthermore, we apply our algorithm to study the mechanomyographic (MMG) signals arising from contraction of human skeletal muscle. Results obtained from the hybrid symplectic principal component analysis and central tendency measure demonstrate that the skeletal muscle motor unit dynamics can indeed be deterministic, in agreement with previous studies. However, the conventional CTM method was not able to definitely detect the underlying deterministic dynamics. This result on MMG signal analysis is helpful in understanding neuromuscular control mechanisms and developing MMG-based engineering control applications.

Undersampling power-law size distributions: effect on the assessment of extreme natural hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Thomas E.

2014-01-01

The effect of undersampling on estimating the size of extreme natural hazards from historical data is examined. Tests using synthetic catalogs indicate that the tail of an empirical size distribution sampled from a pure Pareto probability distribution can range from having one-to-several unusually large events to appearing depleted, relative to the parent distribution. Both of these effects are artifacts caused by limited catalog length. It is more difficult to diagnose the artificially depleted empirical distributions, since one expects that a pure Pareto distribution is physically limited in some way. Using maximum likelihood methods and the method of moments, we estimate the power-law exponent and the corner size parameter of tapered Pareto distributions for several natural hazard examples: tsunamis, floods, and earthquakes. Each of these examples has varying catalog lengths and measurement thresholds, relative to the largest event sizes. In many cases where there are only several orders of magnitude between the measurement threshold and the largest events, joint two-parameter estimation techniques are necessary to account for estimation dependence between the power-law scaling exponent and the corner size parameter. Results indicate that whereas the corner size parameter of a tapered Pareto distribution can be estimated, its upper confidence bound cannot be determined and the estimate itself is often unstable with time. Correspondingly, one cannot statistically reject a pure Pareto null hypothesis using natural hazard catalog data. Although physical limits to the hazard source size and by attenuation mechanisms from source to site constrain the maximum hazard size, historical data alone often cannot reliably determine the corner size parameter. Probabilistic assessments incorporating theoretical constraints on source size and propagation effects are preferred over deterministic assessments of extreme natural hazards based on historic data.

Deterministic and stochastic CTMC models from Zika disease transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zevika, Mona; Soewono, Edy

2018-03-01

Zika infection is one of the most important mosquito-borne diseases in the world. Zika virus (ZIKV) is transmitted by many Aedes-type mosquitoes including Aedes aegypti. Pregnant women with the Zika virus are at risk of having a fetus or infant with a congenital defect and suffering from microcephaly. Here, we formulate a Zika disease transmission model using two approaches, a deterministic model and a continuous-time Markov chain stochastic model. The basic reproduction ratio is constructed from a deterministic model. Meanwhile, the CTMC stochastic model yields an estimate of the probability of extinction and outbreaks of Zika disease. Dynamical simulations and analysis of the disease transmission are shown for the deterministic and stochastic models.

Distinguishing between stochasticity and determinism: Examples from cell cycle duration variability.

PubMed

Pearl Mizrahi, Sivan; Sandler, Oded; Lande-Diner, Laura; Balaban, Nathalie Q; Simon, Itamar

2016-01-01

We describe a recent approach for distinguishing between stochastic and deterministic sources of variability, focusing on the mammalian cell cycle. Variability between cells is often attributed to stochastic noise, although it may be generated by deterministic components. Interestingly, lineage information can be used to distinguish between variability and determinism. Analysis of correlations within a lineage of the mammalian cell cycle duration revealed its deterministic nature. Here, we discuss the sources of such variability and the possibility that the underlying deterministic process is due to the circadian clock. Finally, we discuss the "kicked cell cycle" model and its implication on the study of the cell cycle in healthy and cancerous tissues. © 2015 WILEY Periodicals, Inc.

Probabilistic risk assessment for CO2 storage in geological formations: robust design and support for decision making under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oladyshkin, Sergey; Class, Holger; Helmig, Rainer; Nowak, Wolfgang

2010-05-01

CO2 storage in geological formations is currently being discussed intensively as a technology for mitigating CO2 emissions. However, any large-scale application requires a thorough analysis of the potential risks. Current numerical simulation models are too expensive for probabilistic risk analysis and for stochastic approaches based on brute-force repeated simulation. Even single deterministic simulations may require parallel high-performance computing. The multiphase flow processes involved are too non-linear for quasi-linear error propagation and other simplified stochastic tools. As an alternative approach, we propose a massive stochastic model reduction based on the probabilistic collocation method. The model response is projected onto a orthogonal basis of higher-order polynomials to approximate dependence on uncertain parameters (porosity, permeability etc.) and design parameters (injection rate, depth etc.). This allows for a non-linear propagation of model uncertainty affecting the predicted risk, ensures fast computation and provides a powerful tool for combining design variables and uncertain variables into one approach based on an integrative response surface. Thus, the design task of finding optimal injection regimes explicitly includes uncertainty, which leads to robust designs of the non-linear system that minimize failure probability and provide valuable support for risk-informed management decisions. We validate our proposed stochastic approach by Monte Carlo simulation using a common 3D benchmark problem (Class et al. Computational Geosciences 13, 2009). A reasonable compromise between computational efforts and precision was reached already with second-order polynomials. In our case study, the proposed approach yields a significant computational speedup by a factor of 100 compared to Monte Carlo simulation. We demonstrate that, due to the non-linearity of the flow and transport processes during CO2 injection, including uncertainty in the analysis leads to a systematic and significant shift of predicted leakage rates towards higher values compared with deterministic simulations, affecting both risk estimates and the design of injection scenarios. This implies that, neglecting uncertainty can be a strong simplification for modeling CO2 injection, and the consequences can be stronger than when neglecting several physical phenomena (e.g. phase transition, convective mixing, capillary forces etc.). The authors would like to thank the German Research Foundation (DFG) for financial support of the project within the Cluster of Excellence in Simulation Technology (EXC 310/1) at the University of Stuttgart. Keywords: polynomial chaos; CO2 storage; multiphase flow; porous media; risk assessment; uncertainty; integrative response surfaces

Disentangling Mechanisms That Mediate the Balance Between Stochastic and Deterministic Processes in Microbial Succession

DOE PAGES

Dini-Andreote, Francisco; Stegen, James C.; van Elsas, Jan D.; ...

2015-03-17

Despite growing recognition that deterministic and stochastic factors simultaneously influence bacterial communities, little is known about mechanisms shifting their relative importance. To better understand underlying mechanisms, we developed a conceptual model linking ecosystem development during primary succession to shifts in the stochastic/deterministic balance. To evaluate the conceptual model we coupled spatiotemporal data on soil bacterial communities with environmental conditions spanning 105 years of salt marsh development. At the local scale there was a progression from stochasticity to determinism due to Na accumulation with increasing ecosystem age, supporting a main element of the conceptual model. At the regional-scale, soil organic mattermore » (SOM) governed the relative influence of stochasticity and the type of deterministic ecological selection, suggesting scale-dependency in how deterministic ecological selection is imposed. Analysis of a new ecological simulation model supported these conceptual inferences. Looking forward, we propose an extended conceptual model that integrates primary and secondary succession in microbial systems.« less

An efficient deterministic-probabilistic approach to modeling regional groundwater flow: 2. Application to Owens Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guymon, Gary L.; Yen, Chung-Cheng

1990-01-01

The applicability of a deterministic-probabilistic model for predicting water tables in southern Owens Valley, California, is evaluated. The model is based on a two-layer deterministic model that is cascaded with a two-point probability model. To reduce the potentially large number of uncertain variables in the deterministic model, lumping of uncertain variables was evaluated by sensitivity analysis to reduce the total number of uncertain variables to three variables: hydraulic conductivity, storage coefficient or specific yield, and source-sink function. Results demonstrate that lumping of uncertain parameters reduces computational effort while providing sufficient precision for the case studied. Simulated spatial coefficients of variation for water table temporal position in most of the basin is small, which suggests that deterministic models can predict water tables in these areas with good precision. However, in several important areas where pumping occurs or the geology is complex, the simulated spatial coefficients of variation are over estimated by the two-point probability method.

An efficient deterministic-probabilistic approach to modeling regional groundwater flow: 2. Application to Owens Valley, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guymon, Gary L.; Yen, Chung-Cheng

1990-07-01

The applicability of a deterministic-probabilistic model for predicting water tables in southern Owens Valley, California, is evaluated. The model is based on a two-layer deterministic model that is cascaded with a two-point probability model. To reduce the potentially large number of uncertain variables in the deterministic model, lumping of uncertain variables was evaluated by sensitivity analysis to reduce the total number of uncertain variables to three variables: hydraulic conductivity, storage coefficient or specific yield, and source-sink function. Results demonstrate that lumping of uncertain parameters reduces computational effort while providing sufficient precision for the case studied. Simulated spatial coefficients of variation for water table temporal position in most of the basin is small, which suggests that deterministic models can predict water tables in these areas with good precision. However, in several important areas where pumping occurs or the geology is complex, the simulated spatial coefficients of variation are over estimated by the two-point probability method.

Statistics of Delta v magnitude for a trajectory correction maneuver containing deterministic and random components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bollman, W. E.; Chadwick, C.

1982-01-01

A number of interplanetary missions now being planned involve placing deterministic maneuvers along the flight path to alter the trajectory. Lee and Boain (1973) examined the statistics of trajectory correction maneuver (TCM) magnitude with no deterministic ('bias') component. The Delta v vector magnitude statistics were generated for several values of random Delta v standard deviations using expansions in terms of infinite hypergeometric series. The present investigation uses a different technique (Monte Carlo simulation) to generate Delta v magnitude statistics for a wider selection of random Delta v standard deviations and also extends the analysis to the case of nonzero deterministic Delta v's. These Delta v magnitude statistics are plotted parametrically. The plots are useful in assisting the analyst in quickly answering questions about the statistics of Delta v magnitude for single TCM's consisting of both a deterministic and a random component. The plots provide quick insight into the nature of the Delta v magnitude distribution for the TCM.

Simultaneous estimation of deterministic and fractal stochastic components in non-stationary time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García, Constantino A.; Otero, Abraham; Félix, Paulo; Presedo, Jesús; Márquez, David G.

2018-07-01

In the past few decades, it has been recognized that 1 / f fluctuations are ubiquitous in nature. The most widely used mathematical models to capture the long-term memory properties of 1 / f fluctuations have been stochastic fractal models. However, physical systems do not usually consist of just stochastic fractal dynamics, but they often also show some degree of deterministic behavior. The present paper proposes a model based on fractal stochastic and deterministic components that can provide a valuable basis for the study of complex systems with long-term correlations. The fractal stochastic component is assumed to be a fractional Brownian motion process and the deterministic component is assumed to be a band-limited signal. We also provide a method that, under the assumptions of this model, is able to characterize the fractal stochastic component and to provide an estimate of the deterministic components present in a given time series. The method is based on a Bayesian wavelet shrinkage procedure that exploits the self-similar properties of the fractal processes in the wavelet domain. This method has been validated over simulated signals and over real signals with economical and biological origin. Real examples illustrate how our model may be useful for exploring the deterministic-stochastic duality of complex systems, and uncovering interesting patterns present in time series.

Demonstration of slow light propagation in an optical fiber under dual pump light with co-propagation and counter-propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Wei; Liu, Jianjun; Wang, Yuda; Yang, Yujing; Gao, Yuan; Lv, Pin; Jiang, Qiuli

2018-04-01

In this paper, a general theory of coherent population oscillation effect in an Er3+ -doped fiber under the dual-frequency pumping laser with counter-propagation and co-propagation at room temperature is presented. Using the numerical simulation, in case of dual frequency light waves (1480 nm and 980 nm) with co-propagation and counter-propagation, we analyze the effect of the pump optical power ratio (M) on the group speed of light. The group velocity of light can be varied with the change of M. We research the time delay and fractional delay in an Er3+-doped fiber under the dual-frequency pumping laser with counter-propagation and co-propagation. Compared to the methods of the single pumping, the larger time delay can be got by using the technique of dual-frequency laser pumped fiber with co-propagation and counter-propagation.

Automatic mesh adaptivity for hybrid Monte Carlo/deterministic neutronics modeling of difficult shielding problems

DOE PAGES

Ibrahim, Ahmad M.; Wilson, Paul P.H.; Sawan, Mohamed E.; ...

2015-06-30

The CADIS and FW-CADIS hybrid Monte Carlo/deterministic techniques dramatically increase the efficiency of neutronics modeling, but their use in the accurate design analysis of very large and geometrically complex nuclear systems has been limited by the large number of processors and memory requirements for their preliminary deterministic calculations and final Monte Carlo calculation. Three mesh adaptivity algorithms were developed to reduce the memory requirements of CADIS and FW-CADIS without sacrificing their efficiency improvement. First, a macromaterial approach enhances the fidelity of the deterministic models without changing the mesh. Second, a deterministic mesh refinement algorithm generates meshes that capture as muchmore » geometric detail as possible without exceeding a specified maximum number of mesh elements. Finally, a weight window coarsening algorithm decouples the weight window mesh and energy bins from the mesh and energy group structure of the deterministic calculations in order to remove the memory constraint of the weight window map from the deterministic mesh resolution. The three algorithms were used to enhance an FW-CADIS calculation of the prompt dose rate throughout the ITER experimental facility. Using these algorithms resulted in a 23.3% increase in the number of mesh tally elements in which the dose rates were calculated in a 10-day Monte Carlo calculation and, additionally, increased the efficiency of the Monte Carlo simulation by a factor of at least 3.4. The three algorithms enabled this difficult calculation to be accurately solved using an FW-CADIS simulation on a regular computer cluster, eliminating the need for a world-class super computer.« less

Acuros CTS: A fast, linear Boltzmann transport equation solver for computed tomography scatter - Part I: Core algorithms and validation.

PubMed

Maslowski, Alexander; Wang, Adam; Sun, Mingshan; Wareing, Todd; Davis, Ian; Star-Lack, Josh

2018-05-01

To describe Acuros ® CTS, a new software tool for rapidly and accurately estimating scatter in x-ray projection images by deterministically solving the linear Boltzmann transport equation (LBTE). The LBTE describes the behavior of particles as they interact with an object across spatial, energy, and directional (propagation) domains. Acuros CTS deterministically solves the LBTE by modeling photon transport associated with an x-ray projection in three main steps: (a) Ray tracing photons from the x-ray source into the object where they experience their first scattering event and form scattering sources. (b) Propagating photons from their first scattering sources across the object in all directions to form second scattering sources, then repeating this process until all high-order scattering sources are computed using the source iteration method. (c) Ray-tracing photons from scattering sources within the object to the detector, accounting for the detector's energy and anti-scatter grid responses. To make this process computationally tractable, a combination of analytical and discrete methods is applied. The three domains are discretized using the Linear Discontinuous Finite Elements, Multigroup, and Discrete Ordinates methods, respectively, which confer the ability to maintain the accuracy of a continuous solution. Furthermore, through the implementation in CUDA, we sought to exploit the parallel computing capabilities of graphics processing units (GPUs) to achieve the speeds required for clinical utilization. Acuros CTS was validated against Geant4 Monte Carlo simulations using two digital phantoms: (a) a water phantom containing lung, air, and bone inserts (WLAB phantom) and (b) a pelvis phantom derived from a clinical CT dataset. For these studies, we modeled the TrueBeam ® (Varian Medical Systems, Palo Alto, CA) kV imaging system with a source energy of 125 kVp. The imager comprised a 600 μm-thick Cesium Iodide (CsI) scintillator and a 10:1 one-dimensional anti-scatter grid. For the WLAB studies, the full-fan geometry without a bowtie filter was used (with and without the anti-scatter grid). For the pelvis phantom studies, a half-fan geometry with bowtie was used (with the anti-scatter grid). Scattered and primary photon fluences and energies deposited in the detector were recorded. The Acuros CTS and Monte Carlo results demonstrated excellent agreement. For the WLAB studies, the average percent difference between the Monte Carlo- and Acuros-generated scattered photon fluences at the face of the detector was -0.7%. After including the detector response, the average percent differences between the Monte Carlo- and Acuros-generated scatter fractions (SF) were -0.1% without the grid and 0.6% with the grid. For the digital pelvis simulation, the Monte Carlo- and Acuros-generated SFs agreed to within 0.1% on average, despite the scatter-to-primary ratios (SPRs) being as high as 5.5. The Acuros CTS computation time for each scatter image was ~1 s using a single GPU. Acuros CTS enables a fast and accurate calculation of scatter images by deterministically solving the LBTE thus offering a computationally attractive alternative to Monte Carlo methods. Part II describes the application of Acuros CTS to scatter correction of CBCT scans on the TrueBeam system. © 2018 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Amplification of intrinsic fluctuations by the Lorenz equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox, Ronald F.; Elston, T. C.

1993-07-01

Macroscopic systems (e.g., hydrodynamics, chemical reactions, electrical circuits, etc.) manifest intrinsic fluctuations of molecular and thermal origin. When the macroscopic dynamics is deterministically chaotic, the intrinsic fluctuations may become amplified by several orders of magnitude. Numerical studies of this phenomenon are presented in detail for the Lorenz model. Amplification to macroscopic scales is exhibited, and quantitative methods (binning and a difference-norm) are presented for measuring macroscopically subliminal amplification effects. In order to test the quality of the numerical results, noise induced chaos is studied around a deterministically nonchaotic state, where the scaling law relating the Lyapunov exponent to noise strength obtained for maps is confirmed for the Lorenz model, a system of ordinary differential equations.

A summary of wind power prediction methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuqi

2018-06-01

The deterministic prediction of wind power, the probability prediction and the prediction of wind power ramp events are introduced in this paper. Deterministic prediction includes the prediction of statistical learning based on histor ical data and the prediction of physical models based on NWP data. Due to the great impact of wind power ramp events on the power system, this paper also introduces the prediction of wind power ramp events. At last, the evaluation indicators of all kinds of prediction are given. The prediction of wind power can be a good solution to the adverse effects of wind power on the power system due to the abrupt, intermittent and undulation of wind power.

Probabilistic Neighborhood-Based Data Collection Algorithms for 3D Underwater Acoustic Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Han, Guangjie; Li, Shanshan; Zhu, Chunsheng; Jiang, Jinfang; Zhang, Wenbo

2017-02-08

Marine environmental monitoring provides crucial information and support for the exploitation, utilization, and protection of marine resources. With the rapid development of information technology, the development of three-dimensional underwater acoustic sensor networks (3D UASNs) provides a novel strategy to acquire marine environment information conveniently, efficiently and accurately. However, the specific propagation effects of acoustic communication channel lead to decreased successful information delivery probability with increased distance. Therefore, we investigate two probabilistic neighborhood-based data collection algorithms for 3D UASNs which are based on a probabilistic acoustic communication model instead of the traditional deterministic acoustic communication model. An autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) is employed to traverse along the designed path to collect data from neighborhoods. For 3D UASNs without prior deployment knowledge, partitioning the network into grids can allow the AUV to visit the central location of each grid for data collection. For 3D UASNs in which the deployment knowledge is known in advance, the AUV only needs to visit several selected locations by constructing a minimum probabilistic neighborhood covering set to reduce data latency. Otherwise, by increasing the transmission rounds, our proposed algorithms can provide a tradeoff between data collection latency and information gain. These algorithms are compared with basic Nearest-neighbor Heuristic algorithm via simulations. Simulation analyses show that our proposed algorithms can efficiently reduce the average data collection completion time, corresponding to a decrease of data latency.

Solar Radiation Transport in the Cloudy Atmosphere: A 3D Perspective on Observations and Climate Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Anthony B.; Marshak, Alexander

2010-01-01

The interplay of sunlight with clouds is a ubiquitous and often pleasant visual experience, but it conjures up major challenges for weather, climate, environmental science and beyond. Those engaged in the characterization of clouds (and the clear air nearby) by remote sensing methods are even more confronted. The problem comes, on the one hand, from the spatial complexity of real clouds and, on the other hand, from the dominance of multiple scattering in the radiation transport. The former ingredient contrasts sharply with the still popular representation of clouds as homogeneous plane-parallel slabs for the purposes of radiative transfer computations. In typical cloud scenes the opposite asymptotic transport regimes of diffusion and ballistic propagation coexist. We survey the three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric radiative transfer literature over the past 50 years and identify three concurrent and intertwining thrusts: first, how to assess the damage (bias) caused by 3D effects in the operational 1D radiative transfer models? Second, how to mitigate this damage? Finally, can we exploit 3D radiative transfer phenomena to innovate observation methods and technologies? We quickly realize that the smallest scale resolved computationally or observationally may be artificial but is nonetheless a key quantity that separates the 3D radiative transfer solutions into two broad and complementary classes: stochastic and deterministic. Both approaches draw on classic and contemporary statistical, mathematical and computational physics.

Verification Modal Summation Technique for Synthetic and Observation Seismogram for Pidie Jaya Earthquake M6.5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irwandi, Irwandi; Fashbir; Daryono

2018-04-01

Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) method is a seismic hazard assessment method that has an advantage on realistic physical simulation of the source, propagation, and geological-geophysical structure. This simulation is capable on generating the synthetics seismograms at the sites that being observed. At the regional NDSHA scale, calculation of the strong ground motion is based on 1D modal summation technique because it is more efficient in computation. In this article, we verify the result of synthetic seismogram calculations with the result of field observations when Pidie Jaya earthquake on 7 December 2016 occurred with the moment magnitude of M6.5. Those data were recorded by broadband seismometers installed by BMKG (Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics). The result of the synthetic seismogram calculations verifies that some stations well show the suitability with observation while some other stations show the discrepancies with observation results. Based on the results of the observation of some stations, evidently 1D modal summation technique method has been well verified for thin sediment region (near the pre-tertiary basement), but less suitable for thick sediment region. The reason is that the 1D modal summation technique excludes the amplification effect of seismic wave occurring within thick sediment region. So, another approach is needed, e.g., 2D finite difference hybrid method, which is a part of local scale NDSHA method.

A propagation effects handbook for satellite systems design. A summary of propagation impairments on 10-100 GHz satellite links, with techniques for system design. [tropospheric scattering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaul, R.; Wallace, R.; Kinal, G.

1980-01-01

This handbook provides satellite system engineers with a concise summary of the major propagation effects experienced on Earth-space paths in the 10 to 100 GHz frequency range. The dominant effect, attenuation due to rain, is dealt with in terms of both experimental data from measurements made in the U.S. and Canada, and the mathematical and conceptual models devised to explain the data. Rain systems, rain and attenuation models, depolarization and experimental data are described. The design techniques recommended for predicting propagation effects in Earth-space communications systems are presented. The questions of where in the system design process the effects of propagation should be considered, and what precautions should be taken when applying the propagation results are addressed in order to bridge the gap between the propagation research data and the classical link budget analysis of Earth-space communications system.

Economic analysis of interventions to improve village chicken production in Myanmar.

PubMed

Henning, J; Morton, J; Pym, R; Hla, T; Sunn, K; Meers, J

2013-07-01

A cost-benefit analysis using deterministic and stochastic modelling was conducted to identify the net benefits for households that adopt (1) vaccination of individual birds against Newcastle disease (ND) or (2) improved management of chick rearing by providing coops for the protection of chicks from predation and chick starter feed inside a creep feeder to support chicks' nutrition in village chicken flocks in Myanmar. Partial budgeting was used to assess the additional costs and benefits associated with each of the two interventions tested relative to neither strategy. In the deterministic model, over the first 3 years after the introduction of the interventions, the cumulative sum of the net differences from neither strategy was 13,189Kyat for ND vaccination and 77,645Kyat for improved chick management (effective exchange rate in 2005: 1000Kyat=1$US). Both interventions were also profitable after discounting over a 10-year period; Net Present Values for ND vaccination and improved chick management were 30,791 and 167,825Kyat, respectively. The Benefit-Cost Ratio for ND vaccination was very high (28.8). This was lower for improved chick management, due to greater costs of the intervention, but still favourable at 4.7. Using both interventions concurrently yielded a Net Present Value of 470,543Kyat and a Benefit-Cost Ratio of 11.2 over the 10-year period in the deterministic model. Using the stochastic model, for the first 3 years following the introduction of the interventions, the mean cumulative sums of the net difference were similar to those values obtained from the deterministic model. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the cumulative net differences were strongly influenced by grower bird sale income, particularly under improved chick management. The effects of the strategies on odds of households selling and consuming birds after 7 months, and numbers of birds being sold or consumed after this period also influenced profitability. Cost variations for equipment used under improved chick management were not markedly associated with profitability. Net Present Values and Benefit-Cost Ratios discounted over a 10-year period were also similar to the deterministic model when mean values obtained through stochastic modelling were used. In summary, the study showed that ND vaccination and improved chick management can improve the viability and profitability of village chicken production in Myanmar. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial delineation, fluid-lithology characterization, and petrophysical modeling of deepwater Gulf of Mexico reservoirs though joint AVA deterministic and stochastic inversion of three-dimensional partially-stacked seismic amplitude data and well logs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contreras, Arturo Javier

This dissertation describes a novel Amplitude-versus-Angle (AVA) inversion methodology to quantitatively integrate pre-stack seismic data, well logs, geologic data, and geostatistical information. Deterministic and stochastic inversion algorithms are used to characterize flow units of deepwater reservoirs located in the central Gulf of Mexico. A detailed fluid/lithology sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the nature of AVA effects in the study area. Standard AVA analysis indicates that the shale/sand interface represented by the top of the hydrocarbon-bearing turbidite deposits generate typical Class III AVA responses. Layer-dependent Biot-Gassmann analysis shows significant sensitivity of the P-wave velocity and density to fluid substitution, indicating that presence of light saturating fluids clearly affects the elastic response of sands. Accordingly, AVA deterministic and stochastic inversions, which combine the advantages of AVA analysis with those of inversion, have provided quantitative information about the lateral continuity of the turbidite reservoirs based on the interpretation of inverted acoustic properties and fluid-sensitive modulus attributes (P-Impedance, S-Impedance, density, and LambdaRho, in the case of deterministic inversion; and P-velocity, S-velocity, density, and lithotype (sand-shale) distributions, in the case of stochastic inversion). The quantitative use of rock/fluid information through AVA seismic data, coupled with the implementation of co-simulation via lithotype-dependent multidimensional joint probability distributions of acoustic/petrophysical properties, provides accurate 3D models of petrophysical properties such as porosity, permeability, and water saturation. Pre-stack stochastic inversion provides more realistic and higher-resolution results than those obtained from analogous deterministic techniques. Furthermore, 3D petrophysical models can be more accurately co-simulated from AVA stochastic inversion results. By combining AVA sensitivity analysis techniques with pre-stack stochastic inversion, geologic data, and awareness of inversion pitfalls, it is possible to substantially reduce the risk in exploration and development of conventional and non-conventional reservoirs. From the final integration of deterministic and stochastic inversion results with depositional models and analogous examples, the M-series reservoirs have been interpreted as stacked terminal turbidite lobes within an overall fan complex (the Miocene MCAVLU Submarine Fan System); this interpretation is consistent with previous core data interpretations and regional stratigraphic/depositional studies.

Analyses of the stratospheric dynamics simulated by a GCM with a stochastic nonorographic gravity wave parameterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serva, Federico; Cagnazzo, Chiara; Riccio, Angelo

2016-04-01

The effects of the propagation and breaking of atmospheric gravity waves have long been considered crucial for their impact on the circulation, especially in the stratosphere and mesosphere, between heights of 10 and 110 km. These waves, that in the Earth's atmosphere originate from surface orography (OGWs) or from transient (nonorographic) phenomena such as fronts and convective processes (NOGWs), have horizontal wavelengths between 10 and 1000 km, vertical wavelengths of several km, and frequencies spanning from minutes to hours. Orographic and nonorographic GWs must be accounted for in climate models to obtain a realistic simulation of the stratosphere in both hemispheres, since they can have a substantial impact on circulation and temperature, hence an important role in ozone chemistry for chemistry-climate models. Several types of parameterization are currently employed in models, differing in the formulation and for the values assigned to parameters, but the common aim is to quantify the effect of wave breaking on large-scale wind and temperature patterns. In the last decade, both global observations from satellite-borne instruments and the outputs of very high resolution climate models provided insight on the variability and properties of gravity wave field, and these results can be used to constrain some of the empirical parameters present in most parameterization scheme. A feature of the NOGW forcing that clearly emerges is the intermittency, linked with the nature of the sources: this property is absent in the majority of the models, in which NOGW parameterizations are uncoupled with other atmospheric phenomena, leading to results which display lower variability compared to observations. In this work, we analyze the climate simulated in AMIP runs of the MAECHAM5 model, which uses the Hines NOGW parameterization and with a fine vertical resolution suitable to capture the effects of wave-mean flow interaction. We compare the results obtained with two version of the model, the default and a new stochastic version, in which the value of the perturbation field at launching level is not constant and uniform, but extracted at each time-step and grid-point from a given PDF. With this approach we are trying to add further variability to the effects given by the deterministic NOGW parameterization: the impact on the simulated climate will be assessed focusing on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation of the equatorial stratosphere (known to be driven also by gravity waves) and on the variability of the mid-to-high latitudes atmosphere. The different characteristics of the circulation will be compared with recent reanalysis products in order to determine the advantages of the stochastic approach over the traditional deterministic scheme.

Deterministic Stress Modeling of Hot Gas Segregation in a Turbine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Busby, Judy; Sondak, Doug; Staubach, Brent; Davis, Roger

1998-01-01

Simulation of unsteady viscous turbomachinery flowfields is presently impractical as a design tool due to the long run times required. Designers rely predominantly on steady-state simulations, but these simulations do not account for some of the important unsteady flow physics. Unsteady flow effects can be modeled as source terms in the steady flow equations. These source terms, referred to as Lumped Deterministic Stresses (LDS), can be used to drive steady flow solution procedures to reproduce the time-average of an unsteady flow solution. The goal of this work is to investigate the feasibility of using inviscid lumped deterministic stresses to model unsteady combustion hot streak migration effects on the turbine blade tip and outer air seal heat loads using a steady computational approach. The LDS model is obtained from an unsteady inviscid calculation. The LDS model is then used with a steady viscous computation to simulate the time-averaged viscous solution. Both two-dimensional and three-dimensional applications are examined. The inviscid LDS model produces good results for the two-dimensional case and requires less than 10% of the CPU time of the unsteady viscous run. For the three-dimensional case, the LDS model does a good job of reproducing the time-averaged viscous temperature migration and separation as well as heat load on the outer air seal at a CPU cost that is 25% of that of an unsteady viscous computation.

Experimental demonstration on the deterministic quantum key distribution based on entangled photons.

PubMed

Chen, Hua; Zhou, Zhi-Yuan; Zangana, Alaa Jabbar Jumaah; Yin, Zhen-Qiang; Wu, Juan; Han, Yun-Guang; Wang, Shuang; Li, Hong-Wei; He, De-Yong; Tawfeeq, Shelan Khasro; Shi, Bao-Sen; Guo, Guang-Can; Chen, Wei; Han, Zheng-Fu

2016-02-10

As an important resource, entanglement light source has been used in developing quantum information technologies, such as quantum key distribution(QKD). There are few experiments implementing entanglement-based deterministic QKD protocols since the security of existing protocols may be compromised in lossy channels. In this work, we report on a loss-tolerant deterministic QKD experiment which follows a modified "Ping-Pong"(PP) protocol. The experiment results demonstrate for the first time that a secure deterministic QKD session can be fulfilled in a channel with an optical loss of 9 dB, based on a telecom-band entangled photon source. This exhibits a conceivable prospect of ultilizing entanglement light source in real-life fiber-based quantum communications.

Experimental demonstration on the deterministic quantum key distribution based on entangled photons

PubMed Central

Chen, Hua; Zhou, Zhi-Yuan; Zangana, Alaa Jabbar Jumaah; Yin, Zhen-Qiang; Wu, Juan; Han, Yun-Guang; Wang, Shuang; Li, Hong-Wei; He, De-Yong; Tawfeeq, Shelan Khasro; Shi, Bao-Sen; Guo, Guang-Can; Chen, Wei; Han, Zheng-Fu

2016-01-01

As an important resource, entanglement light source has been used in developing quantum information technologies, such as quantum key distribution(QKD). There are few experiments implementing entanglement-based deterministic QKD protocols since the security of existing protocols may be compromised in lossy channels. In this work, we report on a loss-tolerant deterministic QKD experiment which follows a modified “Ping-Pong”(PP) protocol. The experiment results demonstrate for the first time that a secure deterministic QKD session can be fulfilled in a channel with an optical loss of 9 dB, based on a telecom-band entangled photon source. This exhibits a conceivable prospect of ultilizing entanglement light source in real-life fiber-based quantum communications. PMID:26860582

PROJECTED POPULATION-LEVEL EFFECTS OF THIOBENCARB EXPOSURE ON THE MYSID, AMERICAMYSIS BAHIA, AND EXTINCTION PROBABILITY IN A CONCENTRATION-DECAY EXPOSURE SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

Population-level effects of the mysid, Americamysis bahia, exposed to varying thiobencarb concentrations were estimated using stage-structured matrix models. A deterministic density-independent matrix model estimated the decrease in population growth rate, l, with increas...

Extreme current fluctuations in lattice gases: Beyond nonequilibrium steady states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meerson, Baruch; Sasorov, Pavel V.

2014-01-01

We use the macroscopic fluctuation theory (MFT) to study large current fluctuations in nonstationary diffusive lattice gases. We identify two universality classes of these fluctuations, which we call elliptic and hyperbolic. They emerge in the limit when the deterministic mass flux is small compared to the mass flux due to the shot noise. The two classes are determined by the sign of compressibility of effective fluid, obtained by mapping the MFT into an inviscid hydrodynamics. An example of the elliptic class is the symmetric simple exclusion process, where, for some initial conditions, we can solve the effective hydrodynamics exactly. This leads to a super-Gaussian extreme current statistics conjectured by Derrida and Gerschenfeld [J. Stat. Phys. 137, 978 (2009), 10.1007/s10955-009-9830-1] and yields the optimal path of the system. For models of the hyperbolic class, the deterministic mass flux cannot be neglected, leading to a different extreme current statistics.

Theory connecting nonlocal sediment transport, earth surface roughness, and the Sadler effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schumer, Rina; Taloni, Alessandro; Furbish, David Jon

2017-03-01

Earth surface evolution, like many natural phenomena typified by fluctuations on a wide range of scales and deterministic smoothing, results in a statistically rough surface. We present theory demonstrating that scaling exponents of topographic and stratigraphic statistics arise from long-time averaging of noisy surface evolution rather than specific landscape evolution processes. This is demonstrated through use of "elastic" Langevin equations that generically describe disturbance from a flat earth surface using a noise term that is smoothed deterministically via sediment transport. When smoothing due to transport is a local process, the geologic record self organizes such that a specific Sadler effect and topographic power spectral density (PSD) emerge. Variations in PSD slope reflect the presence or absence and character of nonlocality of sediment transport. The range of observed stratigraphic Sadler slopes captures the same smoothing feature combined with the presence of long-range spatial correlation in topographic disturbance.

Characterization of normality of chaotic systems including prediction and detection of anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engler, Joseph John

Accurate prediction and control pervades domains such as engineering, physics, chemistry, and biology. Often, it is discovered that the systems under consideration cannot be well represented by linear, periodic nor random data. It has been shown that these systems exhibit deterministic chaos behavior. Deterministic chaos describes systems which are governed by deterministic rules but whose data appear to be random or quasi-periodic distributions. Deterministically chaotic systems characteristically exhibit sensitive dependence upon initial conditions manifested through rapid divergence of states initially close to one another. Due to this characterization, it has been deemed impossible to accurately predict future states of these systems for longer time scales. Fortunately, the deterministic nature of these systems allows for accurate short term predictions, given the dynamics of the system are well understood. This fact has been exploited in the research community and has resulted in various algorithms for short term predictions. Detection of normality in deterministically chaotic systems is critical in understanding the system sufficiently to able to predict future states. Due to the sensitivity to initial conditions, the detection of normal operational states for a deterministically chaotic system can be challenging. The addition of small perturbations to the system, which may result in bifurcation of the normal states, further complicates the problem. The detection of anomalies and prediction of future states of the chaotic system allows for greater understanding of these systems. The goal of this research is to produce methodologies for determining states of normality for deterministically chaotic systems, detection of anomalous behavior, and the more accurate prediction of future states of the system. Additionally, the ability to detect subtle system state changes is discussed. The dissertation addresses these goals by proposing new representational techniques and novel prediction methodologies. The value and efficiency of these methods are explored in various case studies. Presented is an overview of chaotic systems with examples taken from the real world. A representation schema for rapid understanding of the various states of deterministically chaotic systems is presented. This schema is then used to detect anomalies and system state changes. Additionally, a novel prediction methodology which utilizes Lyapunov exponents to facilitate longer term prediction accuracy is presented and compared with other nonlinear prediction methodologies. These novel methodologies are then demonstrated on applications such as wind energy, cyber security and classification of social networks.

Risk and benefit assessment of potential neurodevelopmental effect resulting from consumption of marine fish from a coastal archipelago in China.

PubMed

Gao, Yi-Xiong; Zhang, Hongxia; Yu, Xinwei; He, Jia-lu; Shang, Xiaohong; Li, Xiaowei; Zhao, Yunfeng; Wu, Yongning

2014-06-04

The aim of this study was to assess net neurodevelopmental effect via maternal consumption of marine fish. A total of thirty-one species were collected from Zhoushan, China. The net IQ point gain was assessed by FAO/WHO deterministic approach and probabilistic computation (if necessary). Results of the deterministic assessment of two samples belonging to Scoliodon sorrakowah showed negative IQ point gain in both common and extreme consumption scenarios (175 and 450 g/week, respectively); the net IQ gain caused by both consumption scenarios of other species were positive. Both consumption scenarios of Scoliodon sorrakowah showed beneficial neurodevelopmental effect according to probabilistic computation (95% CI for mean of net IQ gain: 0.0536-0.0554 and 0.1377-0.1425, respectively). Except for Scoliodon sorrakowah, this study indicates that both consumption scenarios of other studied species would be recommended according to the FAO/WHO approach. There would be no recommendation of consumption scenarios of Scoliodon sorrakowah for the reason for carefulness.

Reliability Analysis of Retaining Walls Subjected to Blast Loading by Finite Element Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

GuhaRay, Anasua; Mondal, Stuti; Mohiuddin, Hisham Hasan

2018-02-01

Conventional design methods adopt factor of safety as per practice and experience, which are deterministic in nature. The limit state method, though not completely deterministic, does not take into account effect of design parameters, which are inherently variable such as cohesion, angle of internal friction, etc. for soil. Reliability analysis provides a measure to consider these variations into analysis and hence results in a more realistic design. Several studies have been carried out on reliability of reinforced concrete walls and masonry walls under explosions. Also, reliability analysis of retaining structures against various kinds of failure has been done. However, very few research works are available on reliability analysis of retaining walls subjected to blast loading. Thus, the present paper considers the effect of variation of geotechnical parameters when a retaining wall is subjected to blast loading. However, it is found that the variation of geotechnical random variables does not have a significant effect on the stability of retaining walls subjected to blast loading.

Refinement of the Arc-Habcap model to predict habitat effectiveness for elk

Treesearch

Lakhdar Benkobi; Mark A. Rumble; Gary C. Brundige; Joshua J. Millspaugh

2004-01-01

Wildlife habitat modeling is increasingly important for managers who need to assess the effects of land management activities. We evaluated the performance of a spatially explicit deterministic habitat model (Arc-Habcap) that predicts habitat effectiveness for elk. We used five years of radio-telemetry locations of elk from Custer State Park (CSP), South Dakota, to...

Nonlinear optical coupler using a doped optical waveguide

DOEpatents

Pantell, Richard H.; Sadowski, Robert W.; Digonnet, Michel J. F.; Shaw, Herbert J.

1994-01-01

An optical mode coupling apparatus includes an Erbium-doped optical waveguide in which an optical signal at a signal wavelength propagates in a first spatial propagation mode and a second spatial propagation mode of the waveguide. The optical signal propagating in the waveguide has a beat length. The coupling apparatus includes a pump source of perturbational light signal at a perturbational wavelength that propagates in the waveguide in the first spatial propagation mode. The perturbational signal has a sufficient intensity distribution in the waveguide that it causes a perturbation of the effective refractive index of the first spatial propagation mode of the waveguide in accordance with the optical Kerr effect. The perturbation of the effective refractive index of the first spatial propagation mode of the optical waveguide causes a change in the differential phase delay in the optical signal propagating in the first and second spatial propagation modes. The change in the differential phase delay is detected as a change in the intensity distribution between two lobes of the optical intensity distribution pattern of an output signal. The perturbational light signal can be selectively enabled and disabled to selectively change the intensity distribution in the two lobes of the optical intensity distribution pattern.

Effects of magnetometer calibration and maneuvers on accuracies of magnetometer-only attitude-and-rate determination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Challa, M.; Natanson, G.

1998-01-01

Two different algorithms - a deterministic magnetic-field-only algorithm and a Kalman filter for gyroless spacecraft - are used to estimate the attitude and rates of the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) using only measurements from a three-axis magnetometer. The performance of these algorithms is examined using in-flight data from various scenarios. In particular, significant enhancements in accuracies are observed when' the telemetered magnetometer data are accurately calibrated using a recently developed calibration algorithm. Interesting features observed in these studies of the inertial-pointing RXTE include a remarkable sensitivity of the filter to the numerical values of the noise parameters and relatively long convergence time spans. By analogy, the accuracy of the deterministic scheme is noticeably lower as a result of reduced rates of change of the body-fixed geomagnetic field. Preliminary results show the filter-per-axis attitude accuracies ranging between 0.1 and 0.5 deg and rate accuracies between 0.001 deg/sec and 0.005 deg./sec, whereas the deterministic method needs a more sophisticated techniques for smoothing time derivatives of the measured geomagnetic field to clearly distinguish both attitude and rate solutions from the numerical noise. Also included is a new theoretical development in the deterministic algorithm: the transformation of a transcendental equation in the original theory into an 8th-order polynomial equation. It is shown that this 8th-order polynomial reduces to quadratic equations in the two limiting cases-infinitely high wheel momentum, and constant rates-discussed in previous publications.

The Diffusion Model Is Not a Deterministic Growth Model: Comment on Jones and Dzhafarov (2014)

PubMed Central

Smith, Philip L.; Ratcliff, Roger; McKoon, Gail

2015-01-01

Jones and Dzhafarov (2014) claim that several current models of speeded decision making in cognitive tasks, including the diffusion model, can be viewed as special cases of other general models or model classes. The general models can be made to match any set of response time (RT) distribution and accuracy data exactly by a suitable choice of parameters and so are unfalsifiable. The implication of their claim is that models like the diffusion model are empirically testable only by artificially restricting them to exclude unfalsifiable instances of the general model. We show that Jones and Dzhafarov’s argument depends on enlarging the class of “diffusion” models to include models in which there is little or no diffusion. The unfalsifiable models are deterministic or near-deterministic growth models, from which the effects of within-trial variability have been removed or in which they are constrained to be negligible. These models attribute most or all of the variability in RT and accuracy to across-trial variability in the rate of evidence growth, which is permitted to be distributed arbitrarily and to vary freely across experimental conditions. In contrast, in the standard diffusion model, within-trial variability in evidence is the primary determinant of variability in RT. Across-trial variability, which determines the relative speed of correct responses and errors, is theoretically and empirically constrained. Jones and Dzhafarov’s attempt to include the diffusion model in a class of models that also includes deterministic growth models misrepresents and trivializes it and conveys a misleading picture of cognitive decision-making research. PMID:25347314

The importance of environmental variability and management control error to optimal harvest policies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunter, C.M.; Runge, M.C.

2004-01-01

State-dependent strategies (SDSs) are the most general form of harvest policy because they allow the harvest rate to depend, without constraint, on the state of the system. State-dependent strategies that provide an optimal harvest rate for any system state can be calculated, and stochasticity can be appropriately accommodated in this optimization. Stochasticity poses 2 challenges to harvest policies: (1) the population will never be at the equilibrium state; and (2) stochasticity induces uncertainty about future states. We investigated the effects of 2 types of stochasticity, environmental variability and management control error, on SDS harvest policies for a white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) model, and contrasted these with a harvest policy based on maximum sustainable yield (MSY). Increasing stochasticity resulted in more conservative SDSs; that is, higher population densities were required to support the same harvest rate, but these effects were generally small. As stochastic effects increased, SDSs performed much better than MSY. Both deterministic and stochastic SDSs maintained maximum mean annual harvest yield (AHY) and optimal equilibrium population size (Neq) in a stochastic environment, whereas an MSY policy could not. We suggest 3 rules of thumb for harvest management of long-lived vertebrates in stochastic systems: (1) an SDS is advantageous over an MSY policy, (2) using an SDS rather than an MSY is more important than whether a deterministic or stochastic SDS is used, and (3) for SDSs, rankings of the variability in management outcomes (e.g., harvest yield) resulting from parameter stochasticity can be predicted by rankings of the deterministic elasticities.

Numerical Approach to Spatial Deterministic-Stochastic Models Arising in Cell Biology.

PubMed

Schaff, James C; Gao, Fei; Li, Ye; Novak, Igor L; Slepchenko, Boris M

2016-12-01

Hybrid deterministic-stochastic methods provide an efficient alternative to a fully stochastic treatment of models which include components with disparate levels of stochasticity. However, general-purpose hybrid solvers for spatially resolved simulations of reaction-diffusion systems are not widely available. Here we describe fundamentals of a general-purpose spatial hybrid method. The method generates realizations of a spatially inhomogeneous hybrid system by appropriately integrating capabilities of a deterministic partial differential equation solver with a popular particle-based stochastic simulator, Smoldyn. Rigorous validation of the algorithm is detailed, using a simple model of calcium 'sparks' as a testbed. The solver is then applied to a deterministic-stochastic model of spontaneous emergence of cell polarity. The approach is general enough to be implemented within biologist-friendly software frameworks such as Virtual Cell.

Local excitation-inhibition ratio for synfire chain propagation in feed-forward neuronal networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Xinmeng; Yu, Haitao; Wang, Jiang; Liu, Jing; Cao, Yibin; Deng, Bin

2017-09-01

A leading hypothesis holds that spiking activity propagates along neuronal sub-populations which are connected in a feed-forward manner, and the propagation efficiency would be affected by the dynamics of sub-populations. In this paper, how the interaction between local excitation and inhibition effects on synfire chain propagation in feed-forward network (FFN) is investigated. The simulation results show that there is an appropriate excitation-inhibition (EI) ratio maximizing the performance of synfire chain propagation. The optimal EI ratio can significantly enhance the selectivity of FFN to synchronous signals, which thereby increases the stability to background noise. Moreover, the effect of network topology on synfire chain propagation is also investigated. It is found that synfire chain propagation can be maximized by an optimal interlayer linking probability. We also find that external noise is detrimental to synchrony propagation by inducing spiking jitter. The results presented in this paper may provide insights into the effects of network dynamics on neuronal computations.

Elastic full waveform inversion based on the homogenization method: theoretical framework and 2-D numerical illustrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capdeville, Yann; Métivier, Ludovic

2018-05-01

Seismic imaging is an efficient tool to investigate the Earth interior. Many of the different imaging techniques currently used, including the so-called full waveform inversion (FWI), are based on limited frequency band data. Such data are not sensitive to the true earth model, but to a smooth version of it. This smooth version can be related to the true model by the homogenization technique. Homogenization for wave propagation in deterministic media with no scale separation, such as geological media, has been recently developed. With such an asymptotic theory, it is possible to compute an effective medium valid for a given frequency band such that effective waveforms and true waveforms are the same up to a controlled error. In this work we make the link between limited frequency band inversion, mainly FWI, and homogenization. We establish the relation between a true model and an FWI result model. This relation is important for a proper interpretation of FWI images. We numerically illustrate, in the 2-D case, that an FWI result is at best the homogenized version of the true model. Moreover, it appears that the homogenized FWI model is quite independent of the FWI parametrization, as long as it has enough degrees of freedom. In particular, inverting for the full elastic tensor is, in each of our tests, always a good choice. We show how the homogenization can help to understand FWI behaviour and help to improve its robustness and convergence by efficiently constraining the solution space of the inverse problem.

First principles pulse pile-up balance equation and fast deterministic solution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabbatucci, Lorenzo; Fernández, Jorge E.

2017-08-01

Pulse pile-up (PPU) is an always present effect which introduces a distortion into the spectrum measured with radiation detectors and that worsen with the increasing emission rate of the radiation source. It is fully ascribable to the pulse handling circuitry of the detector and it is not comprised in the detector response function which is well explained by a physical model. The PPU changes both the number and the height of the recorded pulses, which are related, respectively, with the number of detected particles and their energy. In the present work, it is derived a first principles balance equation for second order PPU to obtain a post-processing correction to apply to X-ray measurements. The balance equation is solved for the particular case of rectangular pulse shape using a deterministic iterative procedure for which it will be shown the convergence. The proposed method, deterministic rectangular PPU (DRPPU), requires minimum amount of information and, as example, it is applied to a solid state Si detector with active or off-line PPU suppression circuitry. A comparison shows that the results obtained with this fast and simple approach are comparable to those from the more sophisticated procedure using precise detector pulse shapes.

A Deterministic Computational Procedure for Space Environment Electron Transport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nealy, John E.; Chang, C. K.; Norman, Ryan B.; Blattnig, Steve R.; Badavi, Francis F.; Adamcyk, Anne M.

2010-01-01

A deterministic computational procedure for describing the transport of electrons in condensed media is formulated to simulate the effects and exposures from spectral distributions typical of electrons trapped in planetary magnetic fields. The primary purpose for developing the procedure is to provide a means of rapidly performing numerous repetitive transport calculations essential for electron radiation exposure assessments for complex space structures. The present code utilizes well-established theoretical representations to describe the relevant interactions and transport processes. A combined mean free path and average trajectory approach is used in the transport formalism. For typical space environment spectra, several favorable comparisons with Monte Carlo calculations are made which have indicated that accuracy is not compromised at the expense of the computational speed.

Efficient room-temperature source of polarized single photons

DOEpatents

Lukishova, Svetlana G.; Boyd, Robert W.; Stroud, Carlos R.

2007-08-07

An efficient technique for producing deterministically polarized single photons uses liquid-crystal hosts of either monomeric or oligomeric/polymeric form to preferentially align the single emitters for maximum excitation efficiency. Deterministic molecular alignment also provides deterministically polarized output photons; using planar-aligned cholesteric liquid crystal hosts as 1-D photonic-band-gap microcavities tunable to the emitter fluorescence band to increase source efficiency, using liquid crystal technology to prevent emitter bleaching. Emitters comprise soluble dyes, inorganic nanocrystals or trivalent rare-earth chelates.

Regional Wave Propagation in Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jemberie, A. L.; Langston, C. A.

2003-12-01

Broad band seismograms from the April 29, 2003, M4.6 Fort Payne, Alabama earthquake are analyzed to infer mechanisms of crustal wave propagation, crust and upper mantle velocity structure in southeastern United States, and source parameters of the event. In particular, we are interested in producing deterministic models of the distance attenuation of earthquake ground motions through computation of synthetic seismograms. The method first requires constraining the source parameters of an earthquake and then modeling the amplitude and times of broadband arrivals within the waveforms to infer appropriate layered earth models. A first look at seismograms recorded by stations outside the Mississippi Embayment (ME) show clear body phases such P, sP, Pnl, Sn and Lg. The ME signals are qualitatively different from others because they have longer durations and large surface waves. A straightforward interpretation of P wave arrival times shows a typical upper mantle velocity of 8.18 km/s. However, there is evidence of significantly higher P phase velocities at epicentral distances between 400 and 600km, that may be caused by a high velocity upper mantle anomaly; triplication of P-waves is seen in these seismograms. The arrival time differences between regional P and the depth phase sP at different stations are used to constrain the depth of the earthquake. The source depth lies between 9.5 km and 13km which is somewhat more shallow than the network location that was constrained to 15km depth. The Fort Payne earthquake is the largest earthquake to have occurred within the Eastern Tennessee Seismic Zone.

3D J-Integral Capability in Grizzly

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spencer, Benjamin; Backman, Marie; Chakraborty, Pritam

2014-09-01

This report summarizes work done to develop a capability to evaluate fracture contour J-Integrals in 3D in the Grizzly code. In the current fiscal year, a previously-developed 2D implementation of a J-Integral evaluation capability has been extended to work in 3D, and to include terms due both to mechanically-induced strains and due to gradients in thermal strains. This capability has been verified against a benchmark solution on a model of a curved crack front in 3D. The thermal term in this integral has been verified against a benchmark problem with a thermal gradient. These developments are part of a largermore » effort to develop Grizzly as a tool that can be used to predict the evolution of aging processes in nuclear power plant systems, structures, and components, and assess their capacity after being subjected to those aging processes. The capabilities described here have been developed to enable evaluations of Mode- stress intensity factors on axis-aligned flaws in reactor pressure vessels. These can be compared with the fracture toughness of the material to determine whether a pre-existing flaw would begin to propagate during a pos- tulated pressurized thermal shock accident. This report includes a demonstration calculation to show how Grizzly is used to perform a deterministic assessment of such a flaw propagation in a degraded reactor pressure vessel under pressurized thermal shock conditions. The stress intensity is calculated from J, and the toughness is computed using the fracture master curve and the degraded ductile to brittle transition temperature.« less

Bird diversity and environmental heterogeneity in North America: A test of the area-heterogeneity trade-off

Treesearch

Rachel Chocron; Curtis H. Flather; Ronen Kadmon

2015-01-01

Aim: Deterministic niche theory predicts that increasing environmental heterogeneity increases species richness. In contrast, a recent stochastic model suggests that heterogeneity has a unimodal effect on species richness since high levels of heterogeneity reduce the effective area available per species, thereby increasing the likelihood of stochastic...

PROBABILISTIC SAFETY ASSESSMENT OF OPERATIONAL ACCIDENTS AT THE WASTE ISOLATION PILOT PLANT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rucker, D.F.

2000-09-01

This report presents a probabilistic safety assessment of radioactive doses as consequences from accident scenarios to complement the deterministic assessment presented in the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Safety Analysis Report (SAR). The International Council of Radiation Protection (ICRP) recommends both assessments be conducted to ensure that ''an adequate level of safety has been achieved and that no major contributors to risk are overlooked'' (ICRP 1993). To that end, the probabilistic assessment for the WIPP accident scenarios addresses the wide range of assumptions, e.g. the range of values representing the radioactive source of an accident, that could possibly have beenmore » overlooked by the SAR. Routine releases of radionuclides from the WIPP repository to the environment during the waste emplacement operations are expected to be essentially zero. In contrast, potential accidental releases from postulated accident scenarios during waste handling and emplacement could be substantial, which necessitates the need for radiological air monitoring and confinement barriers (DOE 1999). The WIPP Safety Analysis Report (SAR) calculated doses from accidental releases to the on-site (at 100 m from the source) and off-site (at the Exclusive Use Boundary and Site Boundary) public by a deterministic approach. This approach, as demonstrated in the SAR, uses single-point values of key parameters to assess the 50-year, whole-body committed effective dose equivalent (CEDE). The basic assumptions used in the SAR to formulate the CEDE are retained for this report's probabilistic assessment. However, for the probabilistic assessment, single-point parameter values were replaced with probability density functions (PDF) and were sampled over an expected range. Monte Carlo simulations were run, in which 10,000 iterations were performed by randomly selecting one value for each parameter and calculating the dose. Statistical information was then derived from the 10,000 iteration batch, which included 5%, 50%, and 95% dose likelihood, and the sensitivity of each assumption to the calculated doses. As one would intuitively expect, the doses from the probabilistic assessment for most scenarios were found to be much less than the deterministic assessment. The lower dose of the probabilistic assessment can be attributed to a ''smearing'' of values from the high and low end of the PDF spectrum of the various input parameters. The analysis also found a potential weakness in the deterministic analysis used in the SAR, a detail on drum loading was not taken into consideration. Waste emplacement operations thus far have handled drums from each shipment as a single unit, i.e. drums from each shipment are kept together. Shipments typically come from a single waste stream, and therefore the curie loading of each drum can be considered nearly identical to that of its neighbor. Calculations show that if there are large numbers of drums used in the accident scenario assessment, e.g. 28 drums in the waste hoist failure scenario (CH5), then the probabilistic dose assessment calculations will diverge from the deterministically determined doses. As it is currently calculated, the deterministic dose assessment assumes one drum loaded to the maximum allowable (80 PE-Ci), and the remaining are 10% of the maximum. The effective average of drum curie content is therefore less in the deterministic assessment than the probabilistic assessment for a large number of drums. EEG recommends that the WIPP SAR calculations be revisited and updated to include a probabilistic safety assessment.« less

Assessment of the hybrid propagation model, Volume 1: Analysis of noise propagation effects

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-08-31

This is the first of two volumes of a report on the Hybrid Propagation Model (HPM), an advanced prediction model for aviation noise propagation. This volume presents the noise level predictions for eleven different sets of propagation conditions, run...

The role of nonlinear effects in the propagation of noise from high-power jet aircraft.

PubMed

Gee, Kent L; Sparrow, Victor W; James, Michael M; Downing, J Micah; Hobbs, Christopher M; Gabrielson, Thomas B; Atchley, Anthony A

2008-06-01

To address the question of the role of nonlinear effects in the propagation of noise radiated by high-power jet aircraft, extensive measurements were made of the F-22A Raptor during static engine run-ups. Data were acquired at low-, intermediate-, and high-thrust engine settings with microphones located 23-305 m from the aircraft along several angles. Comparisons between the results of a generalized-Burgers-equation-based nonlinear propagation model and the measurements yield favorable agreement, whereas application of a linear propagation model results in spectral predictions that are much too low at high frequencies. The results and analysis show that significant nonlinear propagation effects occur for even intermediate-thrust engine conditions and at angles well away from the peak radiation angle. This suggests that these effects are likely to be common in the propagation of noise radiated by high-power aircraft.

Effect of Streamflow Forecast Uncertainty on Real-Time Reservoir Operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, T.; Cai, X.; Yang, D.

2010-12-01

Various hydrological forecast products have been applied to real-time reservoir operation, including deterministic streamflow forecast (DSF), DSF-based probabilistic streamflow forecast (DPSF), and ensemble streamflow forecast (ESF), which represent forecast uncertainty in the form of deterministic forecast error, deterministic forecast error-based uncertainty distribution, and ensemble forecast errors, respectively. Compared to previous studies that treat these forecast products as ad hoc inputs for reservoir operation models, this paper attempts to model the uncertainties involved in the various forecast products and explores their effect on real-time reservoir operation decisions. In hydrology, there are various indices reflecting the magnitude of streamflow forecast uncertainty; meanwhile, few models illustrate the forecast uncertainty evolution process. This research introduces Martingale Model of Forecast Evolution (MMFE) from supply chain management and justifies its assumptions for quantifying the evolution of uncertainty in streamflow forecast as time progresses. Based on MMFE, this research simulates the evolution of forecast uncertainty in DSF, DPSF, and ESF, and applies the reservoir operation models (dynamic programming, DP; stochastic dynamic programming, SDP; and standard operation policy, SOP) to assess the effect of different forms of forecast uncertainty on real-time reservoir operation. Through a hypothetical single-objective real-time reservoir operation model, the results illustrate that forecast uncertainty exerts significant effects. Reservoir operation efficiency, as measured by a utility function, decreases as the forecast uncertainty increases. Meanwhile, these effects also depend on the type of forecast product being used. In general, the utility of reservoir operation with ESF is nearly as high as the utility obtained with a perfect forecast; the utilities of DSF and DPSF are similar to each other but not as efficient as ESF. Moreover, streamflow variability and reservoir capacity can change the magnitude of the effects of forecast uncertainty, but not the relative merit of DSF, DPSF, and ESF. Schematic diagram of the increase in forecast uncertainty with forecast lead-time and the dynamic updating property of real-time streamflow forecast

Health economic evaluation of Human Papillomavirus vaccines in women from Venezuela by a lifetime Markov cohort model.

PubMed

Bardach, Ariel Esteban; Garay, Osvaldo Ulises; Calderón, María; Pichón-Riviére, Andrés; Augustovski, Federico; Martí, Sebastián García; Cortiñas, Paula; Gonzalez, Marino; Naranjo, Laura T; Gomez, Jorge Alberto; Caporale, Joaquín Enzo

2017-02-02

Cervical cancer (CC) and genital warts (GW) are a significant public health issue in Venezuela. Our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of the two available vaccines, bivalent and quadrivalent, against Human Papillomavirus (HPV) in Venezuelan girls in order to inform decision-makers. A previously published Markov cohort model, informed by the best available evidence, was adapted to the Venezuelan context to evaluate the effects of vaccination on health and healthcare costs from the perspective of the healthcare payer in an 11-year-old girls cohort of 264,489. Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were discounted at 5%. Eight scenarios were analyzed to depict the cost-effectiveness under alternative vaccine prices, exchange rates and dosing schemes. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Compared to screening only, the bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines were cost-saving in all scenarios, avoiding 2,310 and 2,143 deaths, 4,781 and 4,431 CCs up to 18,459 GW for the quadrivalent vaccine and gaining 4,486 and 4,395 discounted QALYs respectively. For both vaccines, the main determinants of variations in the incremental costs-effectiveness ratio after running deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were transition probabilities, vaccine and cancer-treatment costs and HPV 16 and 18 distribution in CC cases. When comparing vaccines, none of them was consistently more cost-effective than the other. In sensitivity analyses, for these comparisons, the main determinants were GW incidence, the level of cross-protection and, for some scenarios, vaccines costs. Immunization with the bivalent or quadrivalent HPV vaccines showed to be cost-saving or cost-effective in Venezuela, falling below the threshold of one Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita (104,404 VEF) per QALY gained. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of these results.

Nanotransfer and nanoreplication using deterministically grown sacrificial nanotemplates

DOEpatents

Melechko, Anatoli V [Oak Ridge, TN; McKnight, Timothy E [Greenback, TN; Guillorn, Michael A [Ithaca, NY; Ilic, Bojan [Ithaca, NY; Merkulov, Vladimir I [Knoxville, TN; Doktycz, Mitchel J [Knoxville, TN; Lowndes, Douglas H [Knoxville, TN; Simpson, Michael L [Knoxville, TN

2011-08-23

Methods, manufactures, machines and compositions are described for nanotransfer and nanoreplication using deterministically grown sacrificial nanotemplates. An apparatus, includes a substrate and a nanoreplicant structure coupled to a surface of the substrate.

Numerical Approach to Spatial Deterministic-Stochastic Models Arising in Cell Biology

PubMed Central

Gao, Fei; Li, Ye; Novak, Igor L.; Slepchenko, Boris M.

2016-01-01

Hybrid deterministic-stochastic methods provide an efficient alternative to a fully stochastic treatment of models which include components with disparate levels of stochasticity. However, general-purpose hybrid solvers for spatially resolved simulations of reaction-diffusion systems are not widely available. Here we describe fundamentals of a general-purpose spatial hybrid method. The method generates realizations of a spatially inhomogeneous hybrid system by appropriately integrating capabilities of a deterministic partial differential equation solver with a popular particle-based stochastic simulator, Smoldyn. Rigorous validation of the algorithm is detailed, using a simple model of calcium ‘sparks’ as a testbed. The solver is then applied to a deterministic-stochastic model of spontaneous emergence of cell polarity. The approach is general enough to be implemented within biologist-friendly software frameworks such as Virtual Cell. PMID:27959915

Propagation effects handbook for satellite systems design. A summary of propagation impairments on 10 to 100 GHz satellite links with techniques for system design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ippolito, L. J.; Kaul, R. D.; Wallace, R. G.

1983-01-01

This Propagation Handbook provides satellite system engineers with a concise summary of the major propagation effects experienced on Earth-space paths in the 10 to 100 GHz frequency range. The dominant effect, attenuation due to rain, is dealt with in some detail, in terms of both experimental data from measurements made in the U.S. and Canada, and the mathematical and conceptual models devised to explain the data. In order to make the Handbook readily usable to many engineers, it has been arranged in two parts. Chapters 2-5 comprise the descriptive part. They deal in some detail with rain systems, rain and attenuation models, depolarization and experimental data. Chapters 6 and 7 make up the design part of the Handbook and may be used almost independently of the earlier chapters. In Chapter 6, the design techniques recommended for predicting propagation effects in Earth-space communications systems are presented. Chapter 7 addresses the questions of where in the system design process the effects of propagation should be considered, and what precautions should be taken when applying the propagation results.

A deterministic electron, photon, proton and heavy ion transport suite for the study of the Jovian moon Europa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badavi, Francis F.; Blattnig, Steve R.; Atwell, William; Nealy, John E.; Norman, Ryan B.

2011-02-01

A Langley research center (LaRC) developed deterministic suite of radiation transport codes describing the propagation of electron, photon, proton and heavy ion in condensed media is used to simulate the exposure from the spectral distribution of the aforementioned particles in the Jovian radiation environment. Based on the measurements by the Galileo probe (1995-2003) heavy ion counter (HIC), the choice of trapped heavy ions is limited to carbon, oxygen and sulfur (COS). The deterministic particle transport suite consists of a coupled electron photon algorithm (CEPTRN) and a coupled light heavy ion algorithm (HZETRN). The primary purpose for the development of the transport suite is to provide a means to the spacecraft design community to rapidly perform numerous repetitive calculations essential for electron, photon, proton and heavy ion exposure assessment in a complex space structure. In this paper, the reference radiation environment of the Galilean satellite Europa is used as a representative boundary condition to show the capabilities of the transport suite. While the transport suite can directly access the output electron and proton spectra of the Jovian environment as generated by the jet propulsion laboratory (JPL) Galileo interim radiation electron (GIRE) model of 2003; for the sake of relevance to the upcoming Europa Jupiter system mission (EJSM), the JPL provided Europa mission fluence spectrum, is used to produce the corresponding depth dose curve in silicon behind a default aluminum shield of 100 mils (˜0.7 g/cm2). The transport suite can also accept a geometry describing ray traced thickness file from a computer aided design (CAD) package and calculate the total ionizing dose (TID) at a specific target point within the interior of the vehicle. In that regard, using a low fidelity CAD model of the Galileo probe generated by the authors, the transport suite was verified versus Monte Carlo (MC) simulation for orbits JOI-J35 of the Galileo probe extended mission. For the upcoming EJSM mission with an expected launch date of 2020, the transport suite is used to compute the depth dose profile for the traditional aluminum silicon as a standard shield target combination, as well as simulating the shielding response of a high charge number (Z) material such as tantalum (Ta). Finally, a shield optimization algorithm is discussed which can guide the instrument designers and fabrication personnel with the choice of graded-Z shield selection and analysis.

An in-situ stimulation experiment in crystalline rock - assessment of induced seismicity levels during stimulation and related hazard for nearby infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gischig, Valentin; Broccardo, Marco; Amann, Florian; Jalali, Mohammadreza; Esposito, Simona; Krietsch, Hannes; Doetsch, Joseph; Madonna, Claudio; Wiemer, Stefan; Loew, Simon; Giardini, Domenico

2016-04-01

A decameter in-situ stimulation experiment is currently being performed at the Grimsel Test Site in Switzerland by the Swiss Competence Center for Energy Research - Supply of Electricity (SCCER-SoE). The underground research laboratory lies in crystalline rock at a depth of 480 m, and exhibits well-documented geology that is presenting some analogies with the crystalline basement targeted for the exploitation of deep geothermal energy resources in Switzerland. The goal is to perform a series of stimulation experiments spanning from hydraulic fracturing to controlled fault-slip experiments in an experimental volume approximately 30 m in diameter. The experiments will contribute to a better understanding of hydro-mechanical phenomena and induced seismicity associated with high-pressure fluid injections. Comprehensive monitoring during stimulation will include observation of injection rate and pressure, pressure propagation in the reservoir, permeability enhancement, 3D dislocation along the faults, rock mass deformation near the fault zone, as well as micro-seismicity. The experimental volume is surrounded by other in-situ experiments (at 50 to 500 m distance) and by infrastructure of the local hydropower company (at ~100 m to several kilometres distance). Although it is generally agreed among stakeholders related to the experiments that levels of induced seismicity may be low given the small total injection volumes of less than 1 m3, detailed analysis of the potential impact of the stimulation on other experiments and surrounding infrastructure is essential to ensure operational safety. In this contribution, we present a procedure how induced seismic hazard can be estimated for an experimental situation that is untypical for injection-induced seismicity in terms of injection volumes, injection depths and proximity to affected objects. Both, deterministic and probabilistic methods are employed to estimate that maximum possible and the maximum expected induced earthquake magnitude. Deterministic methods are based on McGarr's upper limit for the maximum induced seismic moment. Probabilistic methods rely on estimates of Shapiro's seismogenic index and seismicity rates from past stimulation experiments that are scaled to injection volumes of interest. Using rate-and-state frictional modelling coupled to a hydro-mechanical fracture flow model, we demonstrate that large uncontrolled rupture events are unlikely to occur and that deterministic upper limits may be sufficiently conservative. The proposed workflow can be applied to similar injection experiments, for which hazard to nearby infrastructure may limit experimental design.

Hybrid deterministic/stochastic simulation of complex biochemical systems.

PubMed

Lecca, Paola; Bagagiolo, Fabio; Scarpa, Marina

2017-11-21

In a biological cell, cellular functions and the genetic regulatory apparatus are implemented and controlled by complex networks of chemical reactions involving genes, proteins, and enzymes. Accurate computational models are indispensable means for understanding the mechanisms behind the evolution of a complex system, not always explored with wet lab experiments. To serve their purpose, computational models, however, should be able to describe and simulate the complexity of a biological system in many of its aspects. Moreover, it should be implemented by efficient algorithms requiring the shortest possible execution time, to avoid enlarging excessively the time elapsing between data analysis and any subsequent experiment. Besides the features of their topological structure, the complexity of biological networks also refers to their dynamics, that is often non-linear and stiff. The stiffness is due to the presence of molecular species whose abundance fluctuates by many orders of magnitude. A fully stochastic simulation of a stiff system is computationally time-expensive. On the other hand, continuous models are less costly, but they fail to capture the stochastic behaviour of small populations of molecular species. We introduce a new efficient hybrid stochastic-deterministic computational model and the software tool MoBioS (MOlecular Biology Simulator) implementing it. The mathematical model of MoBioS uses continuous differential equations to describe the deterministic reactions and a Gillespie-like algorithm to describe the stochastic ones. Unlike the majority of current hybrid methods, the MoBioS algorithm divides the reactions' set into fast reactions, moderate reactions, and slow reactions and implements a hysteresis switching between the stochastic model and the deterministic model. Fast reactions are approximated as continuous-deterministic processes and modelled by deterministic rate equations. Moderate reactions are those whose reaction waiting time is greater than the fast reaction waiting time but smaller than the slow reaction waiting time. A moderate reaction is approximated as a stochastic (deterministic) process if it was classified as a stochastic (deterministic) process at the time at which it crosses the threshold of low (high) waiting time. A Gillespie First Reaction Method is implemented to select and execute the slow reactions. The performances of MoBios were tested on a typical example of hybrid dynamics: that is the DNA transcription regulation. The simulated dynamic profile of the reagents' abundance and the estimate of the error introduced by the fully deterministic approach were used to evaluate the consistency of the computational model and that of the software tool.

The effects of demand uncertainty on strategic gaming in the merit-order electricity pool market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frem, Bassam

In a merit-order electricity pool market, generating companies (Gencos) game with their offered incremental cost to meet the electricity demand and earn bigger market shares and higher profits. However when the demand is treated as a random variable instead of as a known constant, these Genco gaming strategies become more complex. After a brief introduction of electricity markets and gaming, the effects of demand uncertainty on strategic gaming are studied in two parts: (1) Demand modelled as a discrete random variable (2) Demand modelled as a continuous random variable. In the first part, we proposed an algorithm, the discrete stochastic strategy (DSS) algorithm that generates a strategic set of offers from the perspective of the Gencos' profits. The DSS offers were tested and compared to the deterministic Nash equilibrium (NE) offers based on the predicted demand. This comparison, based on the expected Genco profits, showed the DSS to be a better strategy in a probabilistic sense than the deterministic NE. In the second part, we presented three gaming strategies: (1) Deterministic NE (2) No-Risk (3) Risk-Taking. The strategies were then tested and their profit performances were compared using two assessment tools: (a) Expected value and standard deviation (b) Inverse cumulative distribution. We concluded that despite yielding higher profit performance under the right conjectures, Risk-Taking strategies are very sensitive to incorrect conjectures on the competitors' gaming decisions. As such, despite its lower profit performance, the No-Risk strategy was deemed preferable.

Probabilistic Finite Element Analysis & Design Optimization for Structural Designs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deivanayagam, Arumugam

This study focuses on implementing probabilistic nature of material properties (Kevlar® 49) to the existing deterministic finite element analysis (FEA) of fabric based engine containment system through Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) and implementation of probabilistic analysis in engineering designs through Reliability Based Design Optimization (RBDO). First, the emphasis is on experimental data analysis focusing on probabilistic distribution models which characterize the randomness associated with the experimental data. The material properties of Kevlar® 49 are modeled using experimental data analysis and implemented along with an existing spiral modeling scheme (SMS) and user defined constitutive model (UMAT) for fabric based engine containment simulations in LS-DYNA. MCS of the model are performed to observe the failure pattern and exit velocities of the models. Then the solutions are compared with NASA experimental tests and deterministic results. MCS with probabilistic material data give a good prospective on results rather than a single deterministic simulation results. The next part of research is to implement the probabilistic material properties in engineering designs. The main aim of structural design is to obtain optimal solutions. In any case, in a deterministic optimization problem even though the structures are cost effective, it becomes highly unreliable if the uncertainty that may be associated with the system (material properties, loading etc.) is not represented or considered in the solution process. Reliable and optimal solution can be obtained by performing reliability optimization along with the deterministic optimization, which is RBDO. In RBDO problem formulation, in addition to structural performance constraints, reliability constraints are also considered. This part of research starts with introduction to reliability analysis such as first order reliability analysis, second order reliability analysis followed by simulation technique that are performed to obtain probability of failure and reliability of structures. Next, decoupled RBDO procedure is proposed with a new reliability analysis formulation with sensitivity analysis, which is performed to remove the highly reliable constraints in the RBDO, thereby reducing the computational time and function evaluations. Followed by implementation of the reliability analysis concepts and RBDO in finite element 2D truss problems and a planar beam problem are presented and discussed.

Numerical approaches to combustion modeling. Progress in Astronautics and Aeronautics. Vol. 135

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oran, E.S.; Boris, J.P.

1991-01-01

Various papers on numerical approaches to combustion modeling are presented. The topics addressed include; ab initio quantum chemistry for combustion; rate coefficient calculations for combustion modeling; numerical modeling of combustion of complex hydrocarbons; combustion kinetics and sensitivity analysis computations; reduction of chemical reaction models; length scales in laminar and turbulent flames; numerical modeling of laminar diffusion flames; laminar flames in premixed gases; spectral simulations of turbulent reacting flows; vortex simulation of reacting shear flow; combustion modeling using PDF methods. Also considered are: supersonic reacting internal flow fields; studies of detonation initiation, propagation, and quenching; numerical modeling of heterogeneous detonations, deflagration-to-detonationmore » transition to reactive granular materials; toward a microscopic theory of detonations in energetic crystals; overview of spray modeling; liquid drop behavior in dense and dilute clusters; spray combustion in idealized configurations: parallel drop streams; comparisons of deterministic and stochastic computations of drop collisions in dense sprays; ignition and flame spread across solid fuels; numerical study of pulse combustor dynamics; mathematical modeling of enclosure fires; nuclear systems.« less

Estimation of integral curves from high angular resolution diffusion imaging (HARDI) data.

PubMed

Carmichael, Owen; Sakhanenko, Lyudmila

2015-05-15

We develop statistical methodology for a popular brain imaging technique HARDI based on the high order tensor model by Özarslan and Mareci [10]. We investigate how uncertainty in the imaging procedure propagates through all levels of the model: signals, tensor fields, vector fields, and fibers. We construct asymptotically normal estimators of the integral curves or fibers which allow us to trace the fibers together with confidence ellipsoids. The procedure is computationally intense as it blends linear algebra concepts from high order tensors with asymptotical statistical analysis. The theoretical results are illustrated on simulated and real datasets. This work generalizes the statistical methodology proposed for low angular resolution diffusion tensor imaging by Carmichael and Sakhanenko [3], to several fibers per voxel. It is also a pioneering statistical work on tractography from HARDI data. It avoids all the typical limitations of the deterministic tractography methods and it delivers the same information as probabilistic tractography methods. Our method is computationally cheap and it provides well-founded mathematical and statistical framework where diverse functionals on fibers, directions and tensors can be studied in a systematic and rigorous way.

Estimation of integral curves from high angular resolution diffusion imaging (HARDI) data

PubMed Central

Carmichael, Owen; Sakhanenko, Lyudmila

2015-01-01

We develop statistical methodology for a popular brain imaging technique HARDI based on the high order tensor model by Özarslan and Mareci [10]. We investigate how uncertainty in the imaging procedure propagates through all levels of the model: signals, tensor fields, vector fields, and fibers. We construct asymptotically normal estimators of the integral curves or fibers which allow us to trace the fibers together with confidence ellipsoids. The procedure is computationally intense as it blends linear algebra concepts from high order tensors with asymptotical statistical analysis. The theoretical results are illustrated on simulated and real datasets. This work generalizes the statistical methodology proposed for low angular resolution diffusion tensor imaging by Carmichael and Sakhanenko [3], to several fibers per voxel. It is also a pioneering statistical work on tractography from HARDI data. It avoids all the typical limitations of the deterministic tractography methods and it delivers the same information as probabilistic tractography methods. Our method is computationally cheap and it provides well-founded mathematical and statistical framework where diverse functionals on fibers, directions and tensors can be studied in a systematic and rigorous way. PMID:25937674

Environmental controls on micro fracture processes in shelf ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sammonds, Peter

2013-04-01

The recent retreat and collapse of the ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula has been associated with regional atmospheric warming, oceanic warming, increased summer melt and shelf flexure. Although the cause of collapse is a matter of active discussion, the process is that of fracture of a creep-brittle material, close to its melting point. The environmental controls on how fracturing initiates, at a micro-scale, strongly determine the macroscopic disintegration of ice shelves. In particular the shelf temperature profile controls the plasticity of the ice shelf; the densification of shelf ice due to melting and re-freezing affects the crack tip stress intensity; the accretion of marine ice at the bottom of the shelf imposes a thermal/mechanical discontinuity; saline environments control crack tip stress corrosion; cyclic loading promotes sub-critical crack propagation. These strong environmental controls on shelf ice fracture means that assessing shelf stability is a non-deterministic problem. How these factors may be parameterized in ice shelf models, through the use of fracture mechanisms maps, is discussed. The findings are discussed in relation to the stability of Larsen C.

Ion implantation for deterministic single atom devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pacheco, J. L.; Singh, M.; Perry, D. L.; Wendt, J. R.; Ten Eyck, G.; Manginell, R. P.; Pluym, T.; Luhman, D. R.; Lilly, M. P.; Carroll, M. S.; Bielejec, E.

2017-12-01

We demonstrate a capability of deterministic doping at the single atom level using a combination of direct write focused ion beam and solid-state ion detectors. The focused ion beam system can position a single ion to within 35 nm of a targeted location and the detection system is sensitive to single low energy heavy ions. This platform can be used to deterministically fabricate single atom devices in materials where the nanostructure and ion detectors can be integrated, including donor-based qubits in Si and color centers in diamond.

Counterfactual Quantum Deterministic Key Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Sheng; Wang, Jian; Tang, Chao-Jing

2013-01-01

We propose a new counterfactual quantum cryptography protocol concerning about distributing a deterministic key. By adding a controlled blocking operation module to the original protocol [T.G. Noh, Phys. Rev. Lett. 103 (2009) 230501], the correlation between the polarizations of the two parties, Alice and Bob, is extended, therefore, one can distribute both deterministic keys and random ones using our protocol. We have also given a simple proof of the security of our protocol using the technique we ever applied to the original protocol. Most importantly, our analysis produces a bound tighter than the existing ones.

Ion implantation for deterministic single atom devices

DOE PAGES

Pacheco, J. L.; Singh, M.; Perry, D. L.; ...

2017-12-04

Here, we demonstrate a capability of deterministic doping at the single atom level using a combination of direct write focused ion beam and solid-state ion detectors. The focused ion beam system can position a single ion to within 35 nm of a targeted location and the detection system is sensitive to single low energy heavy ions. This platform can be used to deterministically fabricate single atom devices in materials where the nanostructure and ion detectors can be integrated, including donor-based qubits in Si and color centers in diamond.

Deterministic quantum splitter based on time-reversed Hong-Ou-Mandel interference

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Jun; Lee, Kim Fook; Kumar, Prem

2007-09-15

By utilizing a fiber-based indistinguishable photon-pair source in the 1.55 {mu}m telecommunications band [J. Chen et al., Opt. Lett. 31, 2798 (2006)], we present the first, to the best of our knowledge, deterministic quantum splitter based on the principle of time-reversed Hong-Ou-Mandel quantum interference. The deterministically separated identical photons' indistinguishability is then verified by using a conventional Hong-Ou-Mandel quantum interference, which exhibits a near-unity dip visibility of 94{+-}1%, making this quantum splitter useful for various quantum information processing applications.

Neo-Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments: a Comparative Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peresan, Antonella; Magrin, Andrea; Nekrasova, Anastasia; Kossobokov, Vladimir; Panza, Giuliano F.

2016-04-01

Objective testing is the key issue towards any reliable seismic hazard assessment (SHA). Different earthquake hazard maps must demonstrate their capability in anticipating ground shaking from future strong earthquakes before an appropriate use for different purposes - such as engineering design, insurance, and emergency management. Quantitative assessment of maps performances is an essential step also in scientific process of their revision and possible improvement. Cross-checking of probabilistic models with available observations and independent physics based models is recognized as major validation procedure. The existing maps from the classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), as well as those from the neo-deterministic analysis (NDSHA), which have been already developed for several regions worldwide (including Italy, India and North Africa), are considered to exemplify the possibilities of the cross-comparative analysis in spotting out limits and advantages of different methods. Where the data permit, a comparative analysis versus the documented seismic activity observed in reality is carried out, showing how available observations about past earthquakes can contribute to assess performances of the different methods. Neo-deterministic refers to a scenario-based approach, which allows for consideration of a wide range of possible earthquake sources as the starting point for scenarios constructed via full waveforms modeling. The method does not make use of empirical attenuation models (i.e. Ground Motion Prediction Equations, GMPE) and naturally supplies realistic time series of ground shaking (i.e. complete synthetic seismograms), readily applicable to complete engineering analysis and other mitigation actions. The standard NDSHA maps provide reliable envelope estimates of maximum seismic ground motion from a wide set of possible scenario earthquakes, including the largest deterministically or historically defined credible earthquake. In addition, the flexibility of NDSHA allows for generation of ground shaking maps at specified long-term return times, which may permit a straightforward comparison between NDSHA and PSHA maps in terms of average rates of exceedance for specified time windows. The comparison of NDSHA and PSHA maps, particularly for very long recurrence times, may indicate to what extent probabilistic ground shaking estimates are consistent with those from physical models of seismic waves propagation. A systematic comparison over the territory of Italy is carried out exploiting the uniqueness of the Italian earthquake catalogue, a data set covering more than a millennium (a time interval about ten times longer than that available in most of the regions worldwide) with a satisfactory completeness level for M>5, which warrants the results of analysis. By analysing in some detail seismicity in the Vrancea region, we show that well constrained macroseismic field information for individual earthquakes may provide useful information about the reliability of ground shaking estimates. Finally, in order to generalise observations, the comparative analysis is extended to further regions where both standard NDSHA and PSHA maps are available (e.g. State of Gujarat, India). The final Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) results and the most recent version of Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) project maps, along with other national scale probabilistic maps, all obtained by PSHA, are considered for this comparative analysis.

The influence of annealing on domain wall propagation in bistable amorphous microwire with unidirectional effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onufer, Jozef; Ziman, Ján; Duranka, Peter; Kladivová, Mária

2018-07-01

The effect of gradual annealing on the domain wall mobility (velocity), nucleation, critical depinning and propagation fields in amorphous FeSiB microwires has been studied. A new experimental set-up, presented in this paper, allows measurement of average domain wall velocity for four different conditions and detection of the presence of unidirectional effect in wall propagation without manipulation of the microwire. The proposed interpretation is that a domain wall is considered as a relatively long object which can change its axial dimension due to inhomogeneity of damping forces acting on the wall during its propagation. It is demonstrated that unidirectional effect in domain wall propagation can be strongly reduced by annealing the wire at temperatures higher than 350 °C.

Analytical results for the statistical distribution related to a memoryless deterministic walk: dimensionality effect and mean-field models.

PubMed

Terçariol, César Augusto Sangaletti; Martinez, Alexandre Souto

2005-08-01

Consider a medium characterized by N points whose coordinates are randomly generated by a uniform distribution along the edges of a unitary d-dimensional hypercube. A walker leaves from each point of this disordered medium and moves according to the deterministic rule to go to the nearest point which has not been visited in the preceding mu steps (deterministic tourist walk). Each trajectory generated by this dynamics has an initial nonperiodic part of t steps (transient) and a final periodic part of p steps (attractor). The neighborhood rank probabilities are parametrized by the normalized incomplete beta function Id= I1/4 [1/2, (d+1) /2] . The joint distribution S(N) (mu,d) (t,p) is relevant, and the marginal distributions previously studied are particular cases. We show that, for the memory-less deterministic tourist walk in the euclidean space, this distribution is Sinfinity(1,d) (t,p) = [Gamma (1+ I(-1)(d)) (t+ I(-1)(d) ) /Gamma(t+p+ I(-1)(d)) ] delta(p,2), where t=0, 1,2, ... infinity, Gamma(z) is the gamma function and delta(i,j) is the Kronecker delta. The mean-field models are the random link models, which correspond to d-->infinity, and the random map model which, even for mu=0 , presents nontrivial cycle distribution [ S(N)(0,rm) (p) proportional to p(-1) ] : S(N)(0,rm) (t,p) =Gamma(N)/ {Gamma[N+1- (t+p) ] N( t+p)}. The fundamental quantities are the number of explored points n(e)=t+p and Id. Although the obtained distributions are simple, they do not follow straightforwardly and they have been validated by numerical experiments.

Enhanced Estimation of Terrestrial Loadings for TMDLs: Normalization Approach

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

TMDL implementation plans to remediate pathogen-impaired streams are usually based on deterministic terrestrial fate and transport (DTFT) models. A novel protocol is proposed that can effectively, efficiently, and explicitly capture the predictive uncertainty of DTFT models used to establish terres...

Changing contributions of stochastic and deterministic processes in community assembly over a successional gradient.

PubMed

Måren, Inger Elisabeth; Kapfer, Jutta; Aarrestad, Per Arild; Grytnes, John-Arvid; Vandvik, Vigdis

2018-01-01

Successional dynamics in plant community assembly may result from both deterministic and stochastic ecological processes. The relative importance of different ecological processes is expected to vary over the successional sequence, between different plant functional groups, and with the disturbance levels and land-use management regimes of the successional systems. We evaluate the relative importance of stochastic and deterministic processes in bryophyte and vascular plant community assembly after fire in grazed and ungrazed anthropogenic coastal heathlands in Northern Europe. A replicated series of post-fire successions (n = 12) were initiated under grazed and ungrazed conditions, and vegetation data were recorded in permanent plots over 13 years. We used redundancy analysis (RDA) to test for deterministic successional patterns in species composition repeated across the replicate successional series and analyses of co-occurrence to evaluate to what extent species respond synchronously along the successional gradient. Change in species co-occurrences over succession indicates stochastic successional dynamics at the species level (i.e., species equivalence), whereas constancy in co-occurrence indicates deterministic dynamics (successional niche differentiation). The RDA shows high and deterministic vascular plant community compositional change, especially early in succession. Co-occurrence analyses indicate stochastic species-level dynamics the first two years, which then give way to more deterministic replacements. Grazed and ungrazed successions are similar, but the early stage stochasticity is higher in ungrazed areas. Bryophyte communities in ungrazed successions resemble vascular plant communities. In contrast, bryophytes in grazed successions showed consistently high stochasticity and low determinism in both community composition and species co-occurrence. In conclusion, stochastic and individualistic species responses early in succession give way to more niche-driven dynamics in later successional stages. Grazing reduces predictability in both successional trends and species-level dynamics, especially in plant functional groups that are not well adapted to disturbance. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology, published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Ecological Society of America.

POTENTIAL CLIMATE WARMING EFFECTS ON ICE COVERS OF SMALL LAKES IN THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (R824801)

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract

To simulate effects of projected climate change on ice covers of small lakes in the northern contiguous U.S., a process-based simulation model is applied. This winter ice/snow cover model is associated with a deterministic, one-dimensional year-round water tem...

The Random-Effect DINA Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huang, Hung-Yu; Wang, Wen-Chung

2014-01-01

The DINA (deterministic input, noisy, and gate) model has been widely used in cognitive diagnosis tests and in the process of test development. The outcomes known as slip and guess are included in the DINA model function representing the responses to the items. This study aimed to extend the DINA model by using the random-effect approach to allow…

Assessing Potential Climate Change Effects on Loblolly Pine Growth: A Probabilistic Regional Modeling Approach

Treesearch

Peter B. Woodbury; James E. Smith; David A. Weinstein; John A. Laurence

1998-01-01

Most models of the potential effects of climate change on forest growth have produced deterministic predictions. However, there are large uncertainties in data on regional forest condition, estimates of future climate, and quantitative relationships between environmental conditions and forest growth rate. We constructed a new model to analyze these uncertainties...

Deterministic multidimensional nonuniform gap sampling.

PubMed

Worley, Bradley; Powers, Robert

2015-12-01

Born from empirical observations in nonuniformly sampled multidimensional NMR data relating to gaps between sampled points, the Poisson-gap sampling method has enjoyed widespread use in biomolecular NMR. While the majority of nonuniform sampling schemes are fully randomly drawn from probability densities that vary over a Nyquist grid, the Poisson-gap scheme employs constrained random deviates to minimize the gaps between sampled grid points. We describe a deterministic gap sampling method, based on the average behavior of Poisson-gap sampling, which performs comparably to its random counterpart with the additional benefit of completely deterministic behavior. We also introduce a general algorithm for multidimensional nonuniform sampling based on a gap equation, and apply it to yield a deterministic sampling scheme that combines burst-mode sampling features with those of Poisson-gap schemes. Finally, we derive a relationship between stochastic gap equations and the expectation value of their sampling probability densities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Comparison of Probabilistic and Deterministic Campaign Analysis for Human Space Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Merrill, R. Gabe; Andraschko, Mark; Stromgren, Chel; Cirillo, Bill; Earle, Kevin; Goodliff, Kandyce

2008-01-01

Human space exploration is by its very nature an uncertain endeavor. Vehicle reliability, technology development risk, budgetary uncertainty, and launch uncertainty all contribute to stochasticity in an exploration scenario. However, traditional strategic analysis has been done in a deterministic manner, analyzing and optimizing the performance of a series of planned missions. History has shown that exploration scenarios rarely follow such a planned schedule. This paper describes a methodology to integrate deterministic and probabilistic analysis of scenarios in support of human space exploration. Probabilistic strategic analysis is used to simulate "possible" scenario outcomes, based upon the likelihood of occurrence of certain events and a set of pre-determined contingency rules. The results of the probabilistic analysis are compared to the nominal results from the deterministic analysis to evaluate the robustness of the scenario to adverse events and to test and optimize contingency planning.

Apparatus for fixing latency

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hall, David R; Bartholomew, David B; Moon, Justin

2009-09-08

An apparatus for fixing computational latency within a deterministic region on a network comprises a network interface modem, a high priority module and at least one deterministic peripheral device. The network interface modem is in communication with the network. The high priority module is in communication with the network interface modem. The at least one deterministic peripheral device is connected to the high priority module. The high priority module comprises a packet assembler/disassembler, and hardware for performing at least one operation. Also disclosed is an apparatus for executing at least one instruction on a downhole device within a deterministic region,more » the apparatus comprising a control device, a downhole network, and a downhole device. The control device is near the surface of a downhole tool string. The downhole network is integrated into the tool string. The downhole device is in communication with the downhole network.« less

Stochastic Petri Net extension of a yeast cell cycle model.

PubMed

Mura, Ivan; Csikász-Nagy, Attila

2008-10-21

This paper presents the definition, solution and validation of a stochastic model of the budding yeast cell cycle, based on Stochastic Petri Nets (SPN). A specific family of SPNs is selected for building a stochastic version of a well-established deterministic model. We describe the procedure followed in defining the SPN model from the deterministic ODE model, a procedure that can be largely automated. The validation of the SPN model is conducted with respect to both the results provided by the deterministic one and the experimental results available from literature. The SPN model catches the behavior of the wild type budding yeast cells and a variety of mutants. We show that the stochastic model matches some characteristics of budding yeast cells that cannot be found with the deterministic model. The SPN model fine-tunes the simulation results, enriching the breadth and the quality of its outcome.

Economic evaluation of DNA ploidy analysis vs liquid-based cytology for cervical screening.

PubMed

Nghiem, V T; Davies, K R; Beck, J R; Follen, M; MacAulay, C; Guillaud, M; Cantor, S B

2015-06-09

DNA ploidy analysis involves automated quantification of chromosomal aneuploidy, a potential marker of progression toward cervical carcinoma. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of this method for cervical screening, comparing five ploidy strategies (using different numbers of aneuploid cells as cut points) with liquid-based Papanicolaou smear and no screening. A state-transition Markov model simulated the natural history of HPV infection and possible progression into cervical neoplasia in a cohort of 12-year-old females. The analysis evaluated cost in 2012 US$ and effectiveness in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) from a health-system perspective throughout a lifetime horizon in the US setting. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) to determine the best strategy. The robustness of optimal choices was examined in deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. In the base-case analysis, the ploidy 4 cell strategy was cost-effective, yielding an increase of 0.032 QALY and an ICER of $18 264/QALY compared to no screening. For most scenarios in the deterministic sensitivity analysis, the ploidy 4 cell strategy was the only cost-effective strategy. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves showed that this strategy was more likely to be cost-effective than the Papanicolaou smear. Compared to the liquid-based Papanicolaou smear, screening with a DNA ploidy strategy appeared less costly and comparably effective.

Additivity Principle in High-Dimensional Deterministic Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saito, Keiji; Dhar, Abhishek

2011-12-01

The additivity principle (AP), conjectured by Bodineau and Derrida [Phys. Rev. Lett. 92, 180601 (2004)PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.92.180601], is discussed for the case of heat conduction in three-dimensional disordered harmonic lattices to consider the effects of deterministic dynamics, higher dimensionality, and different transport regimes, i.e., ballistic, diffusive, and anomalous transport. The cumulant generating function (CGF) for heat transfer is accurately calculated and compared with the one given by the AP. In the diffusive regime, we find a clear agreement with the conjecture even if the system is high dimensional. Surprisingly, even in the anomalous regime the CGF is also well fitted by the AP. Lower-dimensional systems are also studied and the importance of three dimensionality for the validity is stressed.

Sensitivity analysis in a Lassa fever deterministic mathematical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdullahi, Mohammed Baba; Doko, Umar Chado; Mamuda, Mamman

2015-05-01

Lassa virus that causes the Lassa fever is on the list of potential bio-weapons agents. It was recently imported into Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the United States as a consequence of the rapid growth of international traffic. A model with five mutually exclusive compartments related to Lassa fever is presented and the basic reproduction number analyzed. A sensitivity analysis of the deterministic model is performed. This is done in order to determine the relative importance of the model parameters to the disease transmission. The result of the sensitivity analysis shows that the most sensitive parameter is the human immigration, followed by human recovery rate, then person to person contact. This suggests that control strategies should target human immigration, effective drugs for treatment and education to reduced person to person contact.

A stochastic electricity market clearing formulation with consistent pricing properties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zavala, Victor M.; Kim, Kibaek; Anitescu, Mihai

We argue that deterministic market clearing formulations introduce arbitrary distortions between day-ahead and expected real-time prices that bias economic incentives. We extend and analyze a previously proposed stochastic clearing formulation in which the social surplus function induces penalties between day-ahead and real-time quantities. We prove that the formulation yields price bounded price distortions, and we show that adding a similar penalty term to transmission flows and phase angles ensures boundedness throughout the network. We prove that when the price distortions are zero, day-ahead quantities equal a quantile of their real-time counterparts. The undesired effects of price distortions suggest that stochasticmore » settings provide significant benefits over deterministic ones that go beyond social surplus improvements. Finally, we propose additional metrics to evaluate these benefits.« less

Uncertainty-accounting environmental policy and management of water systems.

PubMed

Baresel, Christian; Destouni, Georgia

2007-05-15

Environmental policies for water quality and ecosystem management do not commonly require explicit stochastic accounts of uncertainty and risk associated with the quantification and prediction of waterborne pollutant loads and abatement effects. In this study, we formulate and investigate a possible environmental policy that does require an explicit stochastic uncertainty account. We compare both the environmental and economic resource allocation performance of such an uncertainty-accounting environmental policy with that of deterministic, risk-prone and risk-averse environmental policies under a range of different hypothetical, yet still possible, scenarios. The comparison indicates that a stochastic uncertainty-accounting policy may perform better than deterministic policies over a range of different scenarios. Even in the absence of reliable site-specific data, reported literature values appear to be useful for such a stochastic account of uncertainty.

A stochastic electricity market clearing formulation with consistent pricing properties

DOE PAGES

Zavala, Victor M.; Kim, Kibaek; Anitescu, Mihai; ...

2017-03-16

We argue that deterministic market clearing formulations introduce arbitrary distortions between day-ahead and expected real-time prices that bias economic incentives. We extend and analyze a previously proposed stochastic clearing formulation in which the social surplus function induces penalties between day-ahead and real-time quantities. We prove that the formulation yields price bounded price distortions, and we show that adding a similar penalty term to transmission flows and phase angles ensures boundedness throughout the network. We prove that when the price distortions are zero, day-ahead quantities equal a quantile of their real-time counterparts. The undesired effects of price distortions suggest that stochasticmore » settings provide significant benefits over deterministic ones that go beyond social surplus improvements. Finally, we propose additional metrics to evaluate these benefits.« less

Paleoclimatic significance of δD and δ13C values in pinon pine needles from packrat middens spanning the last 40,000 years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendall, Elise; Betancourt, Julio L.; Leavitt, Steven W.

1999-01-01

We compared two approaches to interpreting δD of cellulose nitrate in piñon pine needles (Pinus edulis) preserved in packrat middens from central New Mexico, USA. One approach was based on linear regression between modern δD values and climate parameters, and the other on a deterministic isotope model, modified from Craig and Gordon's terminal lake evaporation model that assumes steady-state conditions and constant isotope effects. One such effect, the net biochemical fractionation factor, was determined for a new species, piñon pine. Regressions showed that δD values in cellulose nitrate from annual cohorts of needles (1989–1996) were strongly correlated with growing season (May–August) precipitation amount, and δ13C values in the same samples were correlated with June relative humidity. The deterministic model reconstructed δD values of meteoric water used by plants after constraining relative humidity effects with δ13C values; growing season temperatures were estimated via modern correlations with δD values of meteoric water. Variations of this modeling approach have been applied to tree-ring cellulose before, but not to macrofossil cellulose, and comparisons to empirical relationships have not been provided. Results from fossil piñon needles spanning the last ∼40,000 years showed no significant trend in δD values of cellulose nitrate, suggesting either no change in the amount of summer precipitation (based on the transfer function) or δD values of meteoric water or temperature (based on the deterministic model). However, there were significant differences in δ13C values, and therefore relative humidity, between Pleistocene and Holocene.

Anderson transition in a three-dimensional kicked rotor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jiao; García-García, Antonio M.

2009-03-01

We investigate Anderson localization in a three-dimensional (3D) kicked rotor. By a finite-size scaling analysis we identify a mobility edge for a certain value of the kicking strength k=kc . For k>kc dynamical localization does not occur, all eigenstates are delocalized and the spectral correlations are well described by Wigner-Dyson statistics. This can be understood by mapping the kicked rotor problem onto a 3D Anderson model (AM) where a band of metallic states exists for sufficiently weak disorder. Around the critical region k≈kc we carry out a detailed study of the level statistics and quantum diffusion. In agreement with the predictions of the one parameter scaling theory (OPT) and with previous numerical simulations, the number variance is linear, level repulsion is still observed, and quantum diffusion is anomalous with ⟨p2⟩∝t2/3 . We note that in the 3D kicked rotor the dynamics is not random but deterministic. In order to estimate the differences between these two situations we have studied a 3D kicked rotor in which the kinetic term of the associated evolution matrix is random. A detailed numerical comparison shows that the differences between the two cases are relatively small. However in the deterministic case only a small set of irrational periods was used. A qualitative analysis of a much larger set suggests that deviations between the random and the deterministic kicked rotor can be important for certain choices of periods. Heuristically it is expected that localization effects will be weaker in a nonrandom potential since destructive interference will be less effective to arrest quantum diffusion. However we have found that certain choices of irrational periods enhance Anderson localization effects.

Comparison of different incremental analysis update schemes in a realistic assimilation system with Ensemble Kalman Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Y.; Barth, A.; Beckers, J. M.; Brankart, J. M.; Brasseur, P.; Candille, G.

2017-07-01

In this paper, three incremental analysis update schemes (IAU 0, IAU 50 and IAU 100) are compared in the same assimilation experiments with a realistic eddy permitting primitive equation model of the North Atlantic Ocean using the Ensemble Kalman Filter. The difference between the three IAU schemes lies on the position of the increment update window. The relevance of each IAU scheme is evaluated through analyses on both thermohaline and dynamical variables. The validation of the assimilation results is performed according to both deterministic and probabilistic metrics against different sources of observations. For deterministic validation, the ensemble mean and the ensemble spread are compared to the observations. For probabilistic validation, the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) is used to evaluate the ensemble forecast system according to reliability and resolution. The reliability is further decomposed into bias and dispersion by the reduced centred random variable (RCRV) score. The obtained results show that 1) the IAU 50 scheme has the same performance as the IAU 100 scheme 2) the IAU 50/100 schemes outperform the IAU 0 scheme in error covariance propagation for thermohaline variables in relatively stable region, while the IAU 0 scheme outperforms the IAU 50/100 schemes in dynamical variables estimation in dynamically active region 3) in case with sufficient number of observations and good error specification, the impact of IAU schemes is negligible. The differences between the IAU 0 scheme and the IAU 50/100 schemes are mainly due to different model integration time and different instability (density inversion, large vertical velocity, etc.) induced by the increment update. The longer model integration time with the IAU 50/100 schemes, especially the free model integration, on one hand, allows for better re-establishment of the equilibrium model state, on the other hand, smooths the strong gradients in dynamically active region.

Probabilistic and deterministic evaluation of uncertainty in a local scale multi-risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lari, S.; Frattini, P.; Crosta, G. B.

2009-04-01

We performed a probabilistic multi-risk analysis (QPRA) at the local scale for a 420 km2 area surrounding the town of Brescia (Northern Italy). We calculated the expected annual loss in terms of economical damage and life loss, for a set of risk scenarios of flood, earthquake and industrial accident with different occurrence probabilities and different intensities. The territorial unit used for the study was the census parcel, of variable area, for which a large amount of data was available. Due to the lack of information related to the evaluation of the hazards, to the value of the exposed elements (e.g., residential and industrial area, population, lifelines, sensitive elements as schools, hospitals) and to the process-specific vulnerability, and to a lack of knowledge of the processes (floods, industrial accidents, earthquakes), we assigned an uncertainty to the input variables of the analysis. For some variables an homogeneous uncertainty was assigned on the whole study area, as for instance for the number of buildings of various typologies, and for the event occurrence probability. In other cases, as for phenomena intensity (e.g.,depth of water during flood) and probability of impact, the uncertainty was defined in relation to the census parcel area. In fact assuming some variables homogeneously diffused or averaged on the census parcels, we introduce a larger error for larger parcels. We propagated the uncertainty in the analysis using three different models, describing the reliability of the output (risk) as a function of the uncertainty of the inputs (scenarios and vulnerability functions). We developed a probabilistic approach based on Monte Carlo simulation, and two deterministic models, namely First Order Second Moment (FOSM) and Point Estimate (PE). In general, similar values of expected losses are obtained with the three models. The uncertainty of the final risk value is in the three cases around the 30% of the expected value. Each of the models, nevertheless, requires different assumptions and computational efforts, and provides results with different level of detail.

3D Dynamic Rupture Simulations along the Wasatch Fault, Utah, Incorporating Rough-fault Topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Withers, Kyle; Moschetti, Morgan

2017-04-01

Studies have found that the Wasatch Fault has experienced successive large magnitude (>Mw 7.2) earthquakes, with an average recurrence interval near 350 years. To date, no large magnitude event has been recorded along the fault, with the last rupture along the Salt Lake City segment occurring 1300 years ago. Because of this, as well as the lack of strong ground motion records in basins and from normal-faulting earthquakes worldwide, seismic hazard in the region is not well constrained. Previous numerical simulations have modeled deterministic ground motion in the heavily populated regions of Utah, near Salt Lake City, but were primarily restricted to low frequencies ( 1 Hz). Our goal is to better assess broadband ground motions from the Wasatch Fault Zone. Here, we extend deterministic ground motion prediction to higher frequencies ( 5 Hz) in this region by using physics-based spontaneous dynamic rupture simulations along a normal fault with characteristics derived from geologic observations. We use a summation by parts finite difference code (Waveqlab3D) with rough-fault topography following a self-similar fractal distribution (over length scales from 100 m to the size of the fault) and include off-fault plasticity to simulate ruptures > Mw 6.5. Geometric complexity along fault planes has previously been shown to generate broadband sources with spectral energy matching that of observations. We investigate the impact of varying the hypocenter location, as well as the influence that multiple realizations of rough-fault topography have on the rupture process and resulting ground motion. We utilize Waveqlab3's computational efficiency to model wave-propagation to a significant distance from the fault with media heterogeneity at both long and short spatial wavelengths. These simulations generate a synthetic dataset of ground motions to compare with GMPEs, in terms of both the median and inter and intraevent variability.

A Deterministic Approach to Active Debris Removal Target Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lidtke, A.; Lewis, H.; Armellin, R.

2014-09-01

Many decisions, with widespread economic, political and legal consequences, are being considered based on space debris simulations that show that Active Debris Removal (ADR) may be necessary as the concerns about the sustainability of spaceflight are increasing. The debris environment predictions are based on low-accuracy ephemerides and propagators. This raises doubts about the accuracy of those prognoses themselves but also the potential ADR target-lists that are produced. Target selection is considered highly important as removal of many objects will increase the overall mission cost. Selecting the most-likely candidates as soon as possible would be desirable as it would enable accurate mission design and allow thorough evaluation of in-orbit validations, which are likely to occur in the near-future, before any large investments are made and implementations realized. One of the primary factors that should be used in ADR target selection is the accumulated collision probability of every object. A conjunction detection algorithm, based on the smart sieve method, has been developed. Another algorithm is then applied to the found conjunctions to compute the maximum and true probabilities of collisions taking place. The entire framework has been verified against the Conjunction Analysis Tools in AGIs Systems Toolkit and relative probability error smaller than 1.5% has been achieved in the final maximum collision probability. Two target-lists are produced based on the ranking of the objects according to the probability they will take part in any collision over the simulated time window. These probabilities are computed using the maximum probability approach, that is time-invariant, and estimates of the true collision probability that were computed with covariance information. The top-priority targets are compared, and the impacts of the data accuracy and its decay are highlighted. General conclusions regarding the importance of Space Surveillance and Tracking for the purpose of ADR are also drawn and a deterministic method for ADR target selection, which could reduce the number of ADR missions to be performed, is proposed.

Literature review of models on tire-pavement interaction noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Tan; Burdisso, Ricardo; Sandu, Corina

2018-04-01

Tire-pavement interaction noise (TPIN) becomes dominant at speeds above 40 km/h for passenger vehicles and 70 km/h for trucks. Several models have been developed to describe and predict the TPIN. However, these models do not fully reveal the physical mechanisms or predict TPIN accurately. It is well known that all the models have both strengths and weaknesses, and different models fit different investigation purposes or conditions. The numerous papers that present these models are widely scattered among thousands of journals, and it is difficult to get the complete picture of the status of research in this area. This review article aims at presenting the history and current state of TPIN models systematically, making it easier to identify and distribute the key knowledge and opinions, and providing insight into the future research trend in this field. In this work, over 2000 references related to TPIN were collected, and 74 models were reviewed from nearly 200 selected references; these were categorized into deterministic models (37), statistical models (18), and hybrid models (19). The sections explaining the models are self-contained with key principles, equations, and illustrations included. The deterministic models were divided into three sub-categories: conventional physics models, finite element and boundary element models, and computational fluid dynamics models; the statistical models were divided into three sub-categories: traditional regression models, principal component analysis models, and fuzzy curve-fitting models; the hybrid models were divided into three sub-categories: tire-pavement interface models, mechanism separation models, and noise propagation models. At the end of each category of models, a summary table is presented to compare these models with the key information extracted. Readers may refer to these tables to find models of their interest. The strengths and weaknesses of the models in different categories were then analyzed. Finally, the modeling trend and future direction in this area are given.

Realistic Simulation for Body Area and Body-To-Body Networks

PubMed Central

Alam, Muhammad Mahtab; Ben Hamida, Elyes; Ben Arbia, Dhafer; Maman, Mickael; Mani, Francesco; Denis, Benoit; D’Errico, Raffaele

2016-01-01

In this paper, we present an accurate and realistic simulation for body area networks (BAN) and body-to-body networks (BBN) using deterministic and semi-deterministic approaches. First, in the semi-deterministic approach, a real-time measurement campaign is performed, which is further characterized through statistical analysis. It is able to generate link-correlated and time-varying realistic traces (i.e., with consistent mobility patterns) for on-body and body-to-body shadowing and fading, including body orientations and rotations, by means of stochastic channel models. The full deterministic approach is particularly targeted to enhance IEEE 802.15.6 proposed channel models by introducing space and time variations (i.e., dynamic distances) through biomechanical modeling. In addition, it helps to accurately model the radio link by identifying the link types and corresponding path loss factors for line of sight (LOS) and non-line of sight (NLOS). This approach is particularly important for links that vary over time due to mobility. It is also important to add that the communication and protocol stack, including the physical (PHY), medium access control (MAC) and networking models, is developed for BAN and BBN, and the IEEE 802.15.6 compliance standard is provided as a benchmark for future research works of the community. Finally, the two approaches are compared in terms of the successful packet delivery ratio, packet delay and energy efficiency. The results show that the semi-deterministic approach is the best option; however, for the diversity of the mobility patterns and scenarios applicable, biomechanical modeling and the deterministic approach are better choices. PMID:27104537

Realistic Simulation for Body Area and Body-To-Body Networks.

PubMed

Alam, Muhammad Mahtab; Ben Hamida, Elyes; Ben Arbia, Dhafer; Maman, Mickael; Mani, Francesco; Denis, Benoit; D'Errico, Raffaele

2016-04-20

In this paper, we present an accurate and realistic simulation for body area networks (BAN) and body-to-body networks (BBN) using deterministic and semi-deterministic approaches. First, in the semi-deterministic approach, a real-time measurement campaign is performed, which is further characterized through statistical analysis. It is able to generate link-correlated and time-varying realistic traces (i.e., with consistent mobility patterns) for on-body and body-to-body shadowing and fading, including body orientations and rotations, by means of stochastic channel models. The full deterministic approach is particularly targeted to enhance IEEE 802.15.6 proposed channel models by introducing space and time variations (i.e., dynamic distances) through biomechanical modeling. In addition, it helps to accurately model the radio link by identifying the link types and corresponding path loss factors for line of sight (LOS) and non-line of sight (NLOS). This approach is particularly important for links that vary over time due to mobility. It is also important to add that the communication and protocol stack, including the physical (PHY), medium access control (MAC) and networking models, is developed for BAN and BBN, and the IEEE 802.15.6 compliance standard is provided as a benchmark for future research works of the community. Finally, the two approaches are compared in terms of the successful packet delivery ratio, packet delay and energy efficiency. The results show that the semi-deterministic approach is the best option; however, for the diversity of the mobility patterns and scenarios applicable, biomechanical modeling and the deterministic approach are better choices.

A wide-angle high Mach number modal expansion for infrasound propagation.

PubMed

Assink, Jelle; Waxler, Roger; Velea, Doru

2017-03-01

The use of modal expansions to solve the problem of atmospheric infrasound propagation is revisited. A different form of the associated modal equation is introduced, valid for wide-angle propagation in atmospheres with high Mach number flow. The modal equation can be formulated as a quadratic eigenvalue problem for which there are simple and efficient numerical implementations. A perturbation expansion for the treatment of attenuation, valid for stratified media with background flow, is derived as well. Comparisons are carried out between the proposed algorithm and a modal algorithm assuming an effective sound speed, including a real data case study. The comparisons show that the effective sound speed approximation overestimates the effect of horizontal wind on sound propagation, leading to errors in traveltime, propagation path, trace velocity, and absorption. The error is found to be dependent on propagation angle and Mach number.

({The) Solar System Large Planets influence on a new Maunder Miniμm}

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yndestad, Harald; Solheim, Jan-Erik

2016-04-01

In 1890´s G. Spörer and E. W. Maunder (1890) reported that the solar activity stopped in a period of 70 years from 1645 to 1715. Later a reconstruction of the solar activity confirms the grand minima Maunder (1640-1720), Spörer (1390-1550), Wolf (1270-1340), and the minima Oort (1010-1070) and Dalton (1785-1810) since the year 1000 A.D. (Usoskin et al. 2007). These minimum periods have been associated with less irradiation from the Sun and cold climate periods on Earth. An identification of a three grand Maunder type periods and two Dalton type periods in a period thousand years, indicates that sooner or later there will be a colder climate on Earth from a new Maunder- or Dalton- type period. The cause of these minimum periods, are not well understood. An expected new Maunder-type period is based on the properties of solar variability. If the solar variability has a deterministic element, we can estimate better a new Maunder grand minimum. A random solar variability can only explain the past. This investigation is based on the simple idea that if the solar variability has a deterministic property, it must have a deterministic source, as a first cause. If this deterministic source is known, we can compute better estimates the next expected Maunder grand minimum period. The study is based on a TSI ACRIM data series from 1700, a TSI ACRIM data series from 1000 A.D., sunspot data series from 1611 and a Solar Barycenter orbit data series from 1000. The analysis method is based on a wavelet spectrum analysis, to identify stationary periods, coincidence periods and their phase relations. The result shows that the TSI variability and the sunspots variability have deterministic oscillations, controlled by the large planets Jupiter, Uranus and Neptune, as the first cause. A deterministic model of TSI variability and sunspot variability confirms the known minimum and grand minimum periods since 1000. From this deterministic model we may expect a new Maunder type sunspot minimum period from about 2018 to 2055. The deterministic model of a TSI ACRIM data series from 1700 computes a new Maunder type grand minimum period from 2015 to 2071. A model of the longer TSI ACRIM data series from 1000 computes a new Dalton to Maunder type minimum irradiation period from 2047 to 2068.

Emergence of chaos in a spatially confined reactive system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voorsluijs, Valérie; De Decker, Yannick

2016-11-01

In spatially restricted media, interactions between particles and local fluctuations of density can lead to important deviations of the dynamics from the unconfined, deterministic picture. In this context, we investigated how molecular crowding can affect the emergence of chaos in small reactive systems. We developed to this end an amended version of the Willamowski-Rössler model, where we account for the impenetrability of the reactive species. We analyzed the deterministic kinetics of this model and studied it with spatially-extended stochastic simulations in which the mobility of particles is included explicitly. We show that homogeneous fluctuations can lead to a destruction of chaos through a fluctuation-induced collision between chaotic trajectories and absorbing states. However, an interplay between the size of the system and the mobility of particles can counterbalance this effect so that chaos can indeed be found when particles diffuse slowly. This unexpected effect can be traced back to the emergence of spatial correlations which strongly affect the dynamics. The mobility of particles effectively acts as a new bifurcation parameter, enabling the system to switch from stationary states to absorbing states, oscillations or chaos.

An Analysis of the Beaufort Sea Thermohaline Structure and Variability, and Its Effects on Acoustic Propagation

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

BEAUFORT SEA THERMOHALINE STRUCTURE AND VARIABILITY, AND ITS EFFECTS ON ACOUSTIC PROPAGATION by Annalise N. Pearson June 2016 Thesis...STRUCTURE AND VARIABILITY, AND ITS EFFECTS ON ACOUSTIC PROPAGATION 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Annalise N. Pearson 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION...public release; distribution is unlimited AN ANALYSIS OF THE BEAUFORT SEA THERMOHALINE STRUCTURE AND VARIABILITY, AND ITS EFFECTS ON ACOUSTIC

Propagation Effects in Space-Based Surveillance Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-02-01

This report describes the first year’s effort to investigate propagation effects in space - based radars. A model was developed for analyzing the...deleterious systems effects by first developing a generalized aperture distribution that ultimately can be applied to any space - based radar configuration...The propagation effects are characterized in terms of the SATCOM model striation parameters. The form of a generalized channel model for space - based radars

Probabilistic Neighborhood-Based Data Collection Algorithms for 3D Underwater Acoustic Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Han, Guangjie; Li, Shanshan; Zhu, Chunsheng; Jiang, Jinfang; Zhang, Wenbo

2017-01-01

Marine environmental monitoring provides crucial information and support for the exploitation, utilization, and protection of marine resources. With the rapid development of information technology, the development of three-dimensional underwater acoustic sensor networks (3D UASNs) provides a novel strategy to acquire marine environment information conveniently, efficiently and accurately. However, the specific propagation effects of acoustic communication channel lead to decreased successful information delivery probability with increased distance. Therefore, we investigate two probabilistic neighborhood-based data collection algorithms for 3D UASNs which are based on a probabilistic acoustic communication model instead of the traditional deterministic acoustic communication model. An autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) is employed to traverse along the designed path to collect data from neighborhoods. For 3D UASNs without prior deployment knowledge, partitioning the network into grids can allow the AUV to visit the central location of each grid for data collection. For 3D UASNs in which the deployment knowledge is known in advance, the AUV only needs to visit several selected locations by constructing a minimum probabilistic neighborhood covering set to reduce data latency. Otherwise, by increasing the transmission rounds, our proposed algorithms can provide a tradeoff between data collection latency and information gain. These algorithms are compared with basic Nearest-neighbor Heuristic algorithm via simulations. Simulation analyses show that our proposed algorithms can efficiently reduce the average data collection completion time, corresponding to a decrease of data latency. PMID:28208735

PYRONES: pyro-modeling and evacuation simulation system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanellos, Tassos; Doulgerakis, Adam; Georgiou, Eftichia; Kountouriotis, Vassilios I.; Paterakis, Manolis; Thomopoulos, Stelios C. A.; Pappou, Theodora; Vrahliotis, Socrates I.; Rekouniotis, Thrasos; Protopsaltis, Byron; Rozenberg, Ofir; Livneh, Ofer

2016-05-01

Structural fires continue to pose a great threat towards human life and property. Due to the complexity and non-deterministic characteristics of a building fire disaster, it is not a straightforward task to assess the effectiveness of fire protection measures embedded in the building design, planned evacuation strategies and potential modes of response for mitigating the fire's consequences. Additionally, there is a lack of means that realistically and accurately recreate the conditions of building fire disasters for the purpose of training personnel in order to be sufficiently prepared when vis-a-vis with such an environment. The propagation of fire within a building, the diffusion of its volatile products, the behavior of the occupants and the sustained injuries not only exhibit non-linear behaviors as individual phenomena, but are also intertwined in a web of co-dependencies. The PYRONES system has been developed to address all these aspects through a comprehensive approach that relies on accurate and realistic computer simulations of the individual phenomena and their interactions. PYRONES offers innovative tools and services to strategically targeted niches in two market domains. In the domain of building design and engineering, PYRONES is seamlessly integrated within existing engineering Building Information Modelling (BIM) workflows and serves as a building performance assessment platform, able to evaluate fire protection systems. On another front, PYRONES penetrates the building security management market, serving as a holistic training platform for specialists in evacuation strategy planning, firefighters and first responders, both at a Command and Control and at an individual trainee level.

Digital signal processing techniques for coherent optical communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldfarb, Gilad

Coherent detection with subsequent digital signal processing (DSP) is developed, analyzed theoretically and numerically and experimentally demonstrated in various fiber-optic transmission scenarios. The use of DSP in conjunction with coherent detection unleashes the benefits of coherent detection which rely on the preservaton of full information of the incoming field. These benefits include high receiver sensitivity, the ability to achieve high spectral-efficiency and the use of advanced modulation formats. With the immense advancements in DSP speeds, many of the problems hindering the use of coherent detection in optical transmission systems have been eliminated. Most notably, DSP alleviates the need for hardware phase-locking and polarization tracking, which can now be achieved in the digital domain. The complexity previously associated with coherent detection is hence significantly diminished and coherent detection is once gain considered a feasible detection alternative. In this thesis, several aspects of coherent detection (with or without subsequent DSP) are addressed. Coherent detection is presented as a means to extend the dispersion limit of a duobinary signal using an analog decision-directed phase-lock loop. Analytical bit-error ratio estimation for quadrature phase-shift keying signals is derived. To validate the promise for high spectral efficiency, the orthogonal-wavelength-division multiplexing scheme is suggested. In this scheme the WDM channels are spaced at the symbol rate, thus achieving the spectral efficiency limit. Theory, simulation and experimental results demonstrate the feasibility of this approach. Infinite impulse response filtering is shown to be an efficient alternative to finite impulse response filtering for chromatic dispersion compensation. Theory, design considerations, simulation and experimental results relating to this topic are presented. Interaction between fiber dispersion and nonlinearity remains the last major challenge deterministic effects pose for long-haul optical data transmission. Experimental results which demonstrate the possibility to digitally mitigate both dispersion and nonlinearity are presented. Impairment compensation is achieved using backward propagation by implementing the split-step method. Efficient realizations of the dispersion compensation operator used in this implementation are considered. Infinite-impulse response and wavelet-based filtering are both investigated as a means to reduce the required computational load associated with signal backward-propagation. Possible future research directions conclude this dissertation.

Fourth International Symposium on Long-Range Sound Propagation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willshire, William L., Jr. (Compiler)

1990-01-01

Long range sound propagation is an aspect of many acoustical problems ranging from en route aircraft noise to the acoustic detection of aircraft. Over the past decade, the University of Mississippi and the Open University of England, together with a third institution, have held a symposium approx. every 2 years so that experts in the field of long range propagation could exchange information on current research, identify areas needing additional work, and coordinate activities as much as possible. The Fourth International Symposium on Long Range Sound Propagation was jointly sponsored by the University of Mississippi, the Open University of England, and NASA. Papers were given in the following areas: ground effects on propagation; infrasound propagation; and meteorological effects on sound propagation. A compilation of the presentations made at the symposium is presented along with a list of attendees, and the agenda.

Kinetics of initiation, propagation, and termination for the [rac-(C(2)H(4)(1-indenyl)(2))ZrMe][MeB(C(6)F(5))(3)]-catalyzed polymerization of 1-hexene.

PubMed

Liu, Z; Somsook, E; White, C B; Rosaaen, K A; Landis, C R

2001-11-14

Metallocene-catalyzed polymerization of 1-alkenes offers fine control of critical polymer attributes such as molecular weight, polydispersity, tacticity, and comonomer incorporation. Enormous effort has been expended on the synthesis and discovery of new catalysts and activators, but elementary aspects of the catalytic processes remain unclear. For example, it is unclear how the catalyst is distributed among active and dormant sites and how this distribution influences the order in monomer for the propagation rates, for which widely varying values are reported. Similarly, although empirical relationships between average molecular weights and monomer have been established for many systems, the underlying mechanisms of chain termination are unclear. Another area of intense interest concerns the role of ion-pairing in controlling the activity and termination mechanisms of metallocene-catalyzed polymerizations. Herein we report the application of quenched-flow kinetics, active site counting, polymer microstructure analysis, and molecular weight distribution analysis to the determination of fundamental rate laws for initiation, propagation, and termination for the polymerization of 1-hexene in toluene solution as catalyzed by the contact ion-pair, [rac-(C(2)H(4)(1-indenyl)(2))ZrMe][MeB(C(6)F(5))(3)] (1) over the temperature range of -10 to 50 degrees C. Highly isotactic (>99% mmmm) poly-1-hexene is produced with no apparent enchained regioerrors. Initiation and propagation processes are first order in the concentrations of 1-hexene and 1 but independent of excess borane or the addition of the contact ion-pair [PhNMe(3)][MeB(C(6)F(5))(3)]. Active site counting and the reaction kinetics provide no evidence of catalyst accumulation in dormant or inactive sites. Initiation is slower than propagation by a factor of 70. The principal termination process is the formation of unsaturates of two types: vinylidene end groups that arise from termination after a 1,2 insertion and vinylene end groups that follow 2,1 insertions. The rate law for the former termination process is independent of the 1-hexene concentration, whereas the latter is first order. Analysis of (13)C-labeled polymer provides support for a mechanism of vinylene end group formation that is not chain transfer to monomer. Deterministic modeling of the molecular weight distributions using the fundamental rate laws and kinetic constants demonstrates the robustness of the kinetic analysis. Comparisons of insertion frequencies with estimated limits on the rates of ion-pair symmetrization obtained by NMR suggest that ion-pair separation prior to insertion is not required, but the analysis requires assumptions that cannot be validated.

Marker-based estimates reveal significant non-additive effects in clonally propagated cassava (Manihot esculenta): implications for the prediction of total genetic value and the selection of varieties

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In clonally propagated crops, non-additive genetic effects can be effectively exploited by the identification of superior genetic individuals as varieties. Cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) is a clonally propagated staple food crop that feeds hundreds of millions. We quantified the amount and natur...

Analytical approximations for spatial stochastic gene expression in single cells and tissues

PubMed Central

Smith, Stephen; Cianci, Claudia; Grima, Ramon

2016-01-01

Gene expression occurs in an environment in which both stochastic and diffusive effects are significant. Spatial stochastic simulations are computationally expensive compared with their deterministic counterparts, and hence little is currently known of the significance of intrinsic noise in a spatial setting. Starting from the reaction–diffusion master equation (RDME) describing stochastic reaction–diffusion processes, we here derive expressions for the approximate steady-state mean concentrations which are explicit functions of the dimensionality of space, rate constants and diffusion coefficients. The expressions have a simple closed form when the system consists of one effective species. These formulae show that, even for spatially homogeneous systems, mean concentrations can depend on diffusion coefficients: this contradicts the predictions of deterministic reaction–diffusion processes, thus highlighting the importance of intrinsic noise. We confirm our theory by comparison with stochastic simulations, using the RDME and Brownian dynamics, of two models of stochastic and spatial gene expression in single cells and tissues. PMID:27146686

The Constitutive Modeling of Thin Films with Randon Material Wrinkles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphey, Thomas W.; Mikulas, Martin M.

2001-01-01

Material wrinkles drastically alter the structural constitutive properties of thin films. Normally linear elastic materials, when wrinkled, become highly nonlinear and initially inelastic. Stiffness' reduced by 99% and negative Poisson's ratios are typically observed. This paper presents an effective continuum constitutive model for the elastic effects of material wrinkles in thin films. The model considers general two-dimensional stress and strain states (simultaneous bi-axial and shear stress/strain) and neglects out of plane bending. The constitutive model is derived from a traditional mechanics analysis of an idealized physical model of random material wrinkles. Model parameters are the directly measurable wrinkle characteristics of amplitude and wavelength. For these reasons, the equations are mechanistic and deterministic. The model is compared with bi-axial tensile test data for wrinkled Kaptong(Registered Trademark) HN and is shown to deterministically predict strain as a function of stress with an average RMS error of 22%. On average, fitting the model to test data yields an RMS error of 1.2%

Dose limits for astronauts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sinclair, W. K.

2000-01-01

Radiation exposures to individuals in space can greatly exceed natural radiation exposure on Earth and possibly normal occupational radiation exposures as well. Consequently, procedures limiting exposures would be necessary. Limitations were proposed by the Radiobiological Advisory Panel of the National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council in 1970. This panel recommended short-term limits to avoid deterministic effects and a single career limit (of 4 Sv) based on a doubling of the cancer risk in men aged 35 to 55. Later, when risk estimates for cancer had increased and were recognized to be age and sex dependent, the NCRP, in Report No. 98 in 1989, recommended a range of career limits based on age and sex from 1 to 4 Sv. NCRP is again in the process of revising recommendations for astronaut exposure, partly because risk estimates have increased further and partly to recognize trends in limiting radiation exposure occupationally on the ground. The result of these considerations is likely to be similar short-term limits for deterministic effects but modified career limits.

Origins of Chaos in Autonomous Boolean Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Socolar, Joshua; Cavalcante, Hugo; Gauthier, Daniel; Zhang, Rui

2010-03-01

Networks with nodes consisting of ideal Boolean logic gates are known to display either steady states, periodic behavior, or an ultraviolet catastrophe where the number of logic-transition events circulating in the network per unit time grows as a power-law. In an experiment, non-ideal behavior of the logic gates prevents the ultraviolet catastrophe and may lead to deterministic chaos. We identify certain non-ideal features of real logic gates that enable chaos in experimental networks. We find that short-pulse rejection and the asymmetry between the logic states tends to engender periodic behavior. On the other hand, a memory effect termed ``degradation'' can generate chaos. Our results strongly suggest that deterministic chaos can be expected in a large class of experimental Boolean-like networks. Such devices may find application in a variety of technologies requiring fast complex waveforms or flat power spectra. The non-ideal effects identified here also have implications for the statistics of attractors in large complex networks.

Field evaluation of an avian risk assessment model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vyas, N.B.; Spann, J.W.; Hulse, C.S.; Borges, S.L.; Bennett, R.S.; Torrez, M.; Williams, B.I.; Leffel, R.

2006-01-01

We conducted two laboratory subacute dietary toxicity tests and one outdoor subacute dietary toxicity test to determine the effectiveness of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's deterministic risk assessment model for evaluating the potential of adverse effects to birds in the field. We tested technical-grade diazinon and its D Z N- 50W (50% diazinon active ingredient wettable powder) formulation on Canada goose (Branta canadensis) goslings. Brain acetylcholinesterase activity was measured, and the feathers and skin, feet. and gastrointestinal contents were analyzed for diazinon residues. The dose-response curves showed that diazinon was significantly more toxic to goslings in the outdoor test than in the laboratory tests. The deterministic risk assessment method identified the potential for risk to birds in general, but the factors associated with extrapolating from the laboratory to the field, and from the laboratory test species to other species, resulted in the underestimation of risk to the goslings. The present study indicates that laboratory-based risk quotients should be interpreted with caution.

Dynamic Probabilistic Instability of Composite Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Christos C.

2009-01-01

A computationally effective method is described to evaluate the non-deterministic dynamic instability (probabilistic dynamic buckling) of thin composite shells. The method is a judicious combination of available computer codes for finite element, composite mechanics and probabilistic structural analysis. The solution method is incrementally updated Lagrangian. It is illustrated by applying it to thin composite cylindrical shell subjected to dynamic loads. Both deterministic and probabilistic buckling loads are evaluated to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. A universal plot is obtained for the specific shell that can be used to approximate buckling loads for different load rates and different probability levels. Results from this plot show that the faster the rate, the higher the buckling load and the shorter the time. The lower the probability, the lower is the buckling load for a specific time. Probabilistic sensitivity results show that the ply thickness, the fiber volume ratio and the fiber longitudinal modulus, dynamic load and loading rate are the dominant uncertainties in that order.

A methodology for uncertainty quantification in quantitative technology valuation based on expert elicitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akram, Muhammad Farooq Bin

The management of technology portfolios is an important element of aerospace system design. New technologies are often applied to new product designs to ensure their competitiveness at the time they are introduced to market. The future performance of yet-to- be designed components is inherently uncertain, necessitating subject matter expert knowledge, statistical methods and financial forecasting. Estimates of the appropriate parameter settings often come from disciplinary experts, who may disagree with each other because of varying experience and background. Due to inherent uncertain nature of expert elicitation in technology valuation process, appropriate uncertainty quantification and propagation is very critical. The uncertainty in defining the impact of an input on performance parameters of a system makes it difficult to use traditional probability theory. Often the available information is not enough to assign the appropriate probability distributions to uncertain inputs. Another problem faced during technology elicitation pertains to technology interactions in a portfolio. When multiple technologies are applied simultaneously on a system, often their cumulative impact is non-linear. Current methods assume that technologies are either incompatible or linearly independent. It is observed that in case of lack of knowledge about the problem, epistemic uncertainty is the most suitable representation of the process. It reduces the number of assumptions during the elicitation process, when experts are forced to assign probability distributions to their opinions without sufficient knowledge. Epistemic uncertainty can be quantified by many techniques. In present research it is proposed that interval analysis and Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence are better suited for quantification of epistemic uncertainty in technology valuation process. Proposed technique seeks to offset some of the problems faced by using deterministic or traditional probabilistic approaches for uncertainty propagation. Non-linear behavior in technology interactions is captured through expert elicitation based technology synergy matrices (TSM). Proposed TSMs increase the fidelity of current technology forecasting methods by including higher order technology interactions. A test case for quantification of epistemic uncertainty on a large scale problem of combined cycle power generation system was selected. A detailed multidisciplinary modeling and simulation environment was adopted for this problem. Results have shown that evidence theory based technique provides more insight on the uncertainties arising from incomplete information or lack of knowledge as compared to deterministic or probability theory methods. Margin analysis was also carried out for both the techniques. A detailed description of TSMs and their usage in conjunction with technology impact matrices and technology compatibility matrices is discussed. Various combination methods are also proposed for higher order interactions, which can be applied according to the expert opinion or historical data. The introduction of technology synergy matrix enabled capturing the higher order technology interactions, and improvement in predicted system performance.

Deterministic influences exceed dispersal effects on hydrologically-connected microbiomes.

PubMed

Graham, Emily B; Crump, Alex R; Resch, Charles T; Fansler, Sarah; Arntzen, Evan; Kennedy, David W; Fredrickson, Jim K; Stegen, James C

2017-04-01

Subsurface groundwater-surface water mixing zones (hyporheic zones) have enhanced biogeochemical activity, but assembly processes governing subsurface microbiomes remain a critical uncertainty in understanding hyporheic biogeochemistry. To address this obstacle, we investigated (a) biogeographical patterns in attached and waterborne microbiomes across three hydrologically-connected, physicochemically-distinct zones (inland hyporheic, nearshore hyporheic and river); (b) assembly processes that generated these patterns; (c) groups of organisms that corresponded to deterministic changes in the environment; and (d) correlations between these groups and hyporheic metabolism. All microbiomes remained dissimilar through time, but consistent presence of similar taxa suggested dispersal and/or common selective pressures among zones. Further, we demonstrated a pronounced impact of deterministic assembly in all microbiomes as well as seasonal shifts from heterotrophic to autotrophic microorganisms associated with increases in groundwater discharge. The abundance of one statistical cluster of organisms increased with active biomass and respiration, revealing organisms that may strongly influence hyporheic biogeochemistry. Based on our results, we propose a conceptualization of hyporheic zone metabolism in which increased organic carbon concentrations during surface water intrusion support heterotrophy, which succumbs to autotrophy under groundwater discharge. These results provide new opportunities to enhance microbially-explicit ecosystem models describing hyporheic zone biogeochemistry and its influence over riverine ecosystem function. © 2017 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ultrafast Magnetization Manipulation Using Single Femtosecond Light and Hot-Electron Pulses.

PubMed

Xu, Yong; Deb, Marwan; Malinowski, Grégory; Hehn, Michel; Zhao, Weisheng; Mangin, Stéphane

2017-11-01

Current-induced magnetization manipulation is a key issue for spintronic applications. This manipulation must be fast, deterministic, and nondestructive in order to function in device applications. Therefore, single- electronic-pulse-driven deterministic switching of the magnetization on the picosecond timescale represents a major step toward future developments of ultrafast spintronic systems. Here, the ultrafast magnetization dynamics in engineered Gd x [FeCo] 1- x -based structures are studied to compare the effect of femtosecond laser and hot-electron pulses. It is demonstrated that a single femtosecond hot-electron pulse causes deterministic magnetization reversal in either Gd-rich and FeCo-rich alloys similarly to a femtosecond laser pulse. In addition, it is shown that the limiting factor of such manipulation for perpendicular magnetized films arises from the formation of a multidomain state due to dipolar interactions. By performing time-resolved measurements under various magnetic fields, it is demonstrated that the same magnetization dynamics are observed for both light and hot-electron excitation, and that the full magnetization reversal takes place within 40 ps. The efficiency of the ultrafast current-induced magnetization manipulation is enhanced due to the ballistic transport of hot electrons before reaching the GdFeCo magnetic layer. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Refinement and evaluation of helicopter real-time self-adaptive active vibration controller algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, M. W.

1984-01-01

A Real-Time Self-Adaptive (RTSA) active vibration controller was used as the framework in developing a computer program for a generic controller that can be used to alleviate helicopter vibration. Based upon on-line identification of system parameters, the generic controller minimizes vibration in the fuselage by closed-loop implementation of higher harmonic control in the main rotor system. The new generic controller incorporates a set of improved algorithms that gives the capability to readily define many different configurations by selecting one of three different controller types (deterministic, cautious, and dual), one of two linear system models (local and global), and one or more of several methods of applying limits on control inputs (external and/or internal limits on higher harmonic pitch amplitude and rate). A helicopter rotor simulation analysis was used to evaluate the algorithms associated with the alternative controller types as applied to the four-bladed H-34 rotor mounted on the NASA Ames Rotor Test Apparatus (RTA) which represents the fuselage. After proper tuning all three controllers provide more effective vibration reduction and converge more quickly and smoothly with smaller control inputs than the initial RTSA controller (deterministic with external pitch-rate limiting). It is demonstrated that internal limiting of the control inputs a significantly improves the overall performance of the deterministic controller.

Probabilistic Design and Analysis Framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strack, William C.; Nagpal, Vinod K.

2010-01-01

PRODAF is a software package designed to aid analysts and designers in conducting probabilistic analysis of components and systems. PRODAF can integrate multiple analysis programs to ease the tedious process of conducting a complex analysis process that requires the use of multiple software packages. The work uses a commercial finite element analysis (FEA) program with modules from NESSUS to conduct a probabilistic analysis of a hypothetical turbine blade, disk, and shaft model. PRODAF applies the response surface method, at the component level, and extrapolates the component-level responses to the system level. Hypothetical components of a gas turbine engine are first deterministically modeled using FEA. Variations in selected geometrical dimensions and loading conditions are analyzed to determine the effects of the stress state within each component. Geometric variations include the cord length and height for the blade, inner radius, outer radius, and thickness, which are varied for the disk. Probabilistic analysis is carried out using developing software packages like System Uncertainty Analysis (SUA) and PRODAF. PRODAF was used with a commercial deterministic FEA program in conjunction with modules from the probabilistic analysis program, NESTEM, to perturb loads and geometries to provide a reliability and sensitivity analysis. PRODAF simplified the handling of data among the various programs involved, and will work with many commercial and opensource deterministic programs, probabilistic programs, or modules.

Seismic stability of the survey areas of potential sites for the deep geological repository of the spent nuclear fuel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaláb, Zdeněk; Šílený, Jan; Lednická, Markéta

2017-07-01

This paper deals with the seismic stability of the survey areas of potential sites for the deep geological repository of the spent nuclear fuel in the Czech Republic. The basic source of data for historical earthquakes up to 1990 was the seismic website [1-]. The most intense earthquake described occurred on September 15, 1590 in the Niederroesterreich region (Austria) in the historical period; its reported intensity is Io = 8-9. The source of the contemporary seismic data for the period since 1991 to the end of 2014 was the website [11]. It may be stated based on the databases and literature review that in the period from 1900, no earthquake exceeding magnitude 5.1 originated in the territory of the Czech Republic. In order to evaluate seismicity and to assess the impact of seismic effects at depths of hypothetical deep geological repository for the next time period, the neo-deterministic method was selected as an extension of the probabilistic method. Each one out of the seven survey areas were assessed by the neo-deterministic evaluation of the seismic wave-field excited by selected individual events and determining the maximum loading. Results of seismological databases studies and neo-deterministic analysis of Čihadlo locality are presented.

Propagation Effects of Wind and Temperature on Acoustic Ground Contour Levels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heath, Stephanie L.; McAninch, Gerry L.

2006-01-01

Propagation characteristics for varying wind and temperature atmospheric conditions are identified using physically-limiting propagation angles to define shadow boundary regions. These angles are graphically illustrated for various wind and temperature cases using a newly developed ray-tracing propagation code.

Proceedings of the Thirteenth NASA Propagation Experimenters Meeting (NAPEX 13)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davarian, Faramaz (Editor)

1989-01-01

The NASA Propagation Experimenters Meeting (NAPEX), supported by the NASA Propagation Program, is convened annually to discuss studies made on radio wave propagation by investigators from domestic and international organizations. The meeting was organized into three technical sessions: the first focused on mobile satellite propagation; the second examined the propagation effects for frequencies above 10 GHz; and the third addressed studies devoted exclusively to the Olympus/Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) Program.

Fatigue crack tip deformation and fatigue crack propagation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kang, T. S.; Liu, H. W.

1972-01-01

The effects of stress ratio, prestress cycling and plate thickness on the fatigue crack propagation rate are studied on 2024-T351 aluminum alloy. Fatigue crack propagation rate increases with the plate thickness and the stress ratio. Prestress cycling below the static yield strength has no noticeable effect on the fatigue crack propagation rate. However, prestress cycling above the static yield strength causes the material to strain harden and increases the fatigue crack propagation rate. Crack tip deformation is used to study the fatigue crack propagation. The crack tip strains and the crack opening displacements were measured from moire fringe patterns. The moire fringe patterns were obtained by a double exposure technique, using a very high density master grille (13,400 lines per inch).

Deterministic Computer-Controlled Polishing Process for High-Energy X-Ray Optics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khan, Gufran S.; Gubarev, Mikhail; Speegle, Chet; Ramsey, Brian

2010-01-01

A deterministic computer-controlled polishing process for large X-ray mirror mandrels is presented. Using tool s influence function and material removal rate extracted from polishing experiments, design considerations of polishing laps and optimized operating parameters are discussed

Solving difficult problems creatively: a role for energy optimised deterministic/stochastic hybrid computing

PubMed Central

Palmer, Tim N.; O’Shea, Michael

2015-01-01

How is the brain configured for creativity? What is the computational substrate for ‘eureka’ moments of insight? Here we argue that creative thinking arises ultimately from a synergy between low-energy stochastic and energy-intensive deterministic processing, and is a by-product of a nervous system whose signal-processing capability per unit of available energy has become highly energy optimised. We suggest that the stochastic component has its origin in thermal (ultimately quantum decoherent) noise affecting the activity of neurons. Without this component, deterministic computational models of the brain are incomplete. PMID:26528173

Deterministic and efficient quantum cryptography based on Bell's theorem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen Zengbing; Pan Jianwei; Physikalisches Institut, Universitaet Heidelberg, Philosophenweg 12, 69120 Heidelberg

2006-05-15

We propose a double-entanglement-based quantum cryptography protocol that is both efficient and deterministic. The proposal uses photon pairs with entanglement both in polarization and in time degrees of freedom; each measurement in which both of the two communicating parties register a photon can establish one and only one perfect correlation, and thus deterministically create a key bit. Eavesdropping can be detected by violation of local realism. A variation of the protocol shows a higher security, similar to the six-state protocol, under individual attacks. Our scheme allows a robust implementation under the current technology.

Heart rate variability as determinism with jump stochastic parameters.

PubMed

Zheng, Jiongxuan; Skufca, Joseph D; Bollt, Erik M

2013-08-01

We use measured heart rate information (RR intervals) to develop a one-dimensional nonlinear map that describes short term deterministic behavior in the data. Our study suggests that there is a stochastic parameter with persistence which causes the heart rate and rhythm system to wander about a bifurcation point. We propose a modified circle map with a jump process noise term as a model which can qualitatively capture such this behavior of low dimensional transient determinism with occasional (stochastically defined) jumps from one deterministic system to another within a one parameter family of deterministic systems.

Stochastic assembly in a subtropical forest chronosequence: evidence from contrasting changes of species, phylogenetic and functional dissimilarity over succession.

PubMed

Mi, Xiangcheng; Swenson, Nathan G; Jia, Qi; Rao, Mide; Feng, Gang; Ren, Haibao; Bebber, Daniel P; Ma, Keping

2016-09-07

Deterministic and stochastic processes jointly determine the community dynamics of forest succession. However, it has been widely held in previous studies that deterministic processes dominate forest succession. Furthermore, inference of mechanisms for community assembly may be misleading if based on a single axis of diversity alone. In this study, we evaluated the relative roles of deterministic and stochastic processes along a disturbance gradient by integrating species, functional, and phylogenetic beta diversity in a subtropical forest chronosequence in Southeastern China. We found a general pattern of increasing species turnover, but little-to-no change in phylogenetic and functional turnover over succession at two spatial scales. Meanwhile, the phylogenetic and functional beta diversity were not significantly different from random expectation. This result suggested a dominance of stochastic assembly, contrary to the general expectation that deterministic processes dominate forest succession. On the other hand, we found significant interactions of environment and disturbance and limited evidence for significant deviations of phylogenetic or functional turnover from random expectations for different size classes. This result provided weak evidence of deterministic processes over succession. Stochastic assembly of forest succession suggests that post-disturbance restoration may be largely unpredictable and difficult to control in subtropical forests.

Discrete-State Stochastic Models of Calcium-Regulated Calcium Influx and Subspace Dynamics Are Not Well-Approximated by ODEs That Neglect Concentration Fluctuations

PubMed Central

Weinberg, Seth H.; Smith, Gregory D.

2012-01-01

Cardiac myocyte calcium signaling is often modeled using deterministic ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and mass-action kinetics. However, spatially restricted “domains” associated with calcium influx are small enough (e.g., 10−17 liters) that local signaling may involve 1–100 calcium ions. Is it appropriate to model the dynamics of subspace calcium using deterministic ODEs or, alternatively, do we require stochastic descriptions that account for the fundamentally discrete nature of these local calcium signals? To address this question, we constructed a minimal Markov model of a calcium-regulated calcium channel and associated subspace. We compared the expected value of fluctuating subspace calcium concentration (a result that accounts for the small subspace volume) with the corresponding deterministic model (an approximation that assumes large system size). When subspace calcium did not regulate calcium influx, the deterministic and stochastic descriptions agreed. However, when calcium binding altered channel activity in the model, the continuous deterministic description often deviated significantly from the discrete stochastic model, unless the subspace volume is unrealistically large and/or the kinetics of the calcium binding are sufficiently fast. This principle was also demonstrated using a physiologically realistic model of calmodulin regulation of L-type calcium channels introduced by Yue and coworkers. PMID:23509597

Mixing Single Scattering Properties in Vector Radiative Transfer for Deterministic and Stochastic Solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukherjee, L.; Zhai, P.; Hu, Y.; Winker, D. M.

2016-12-01

Among the primary factors, which determine the polarized radiation, field of a turbid medium are the single scattering properties of the medium. When multiple types of scatterers are present, the single scattering properties of the scatterers need to be properly mixed in order to find the solutions to the vector radiative transfer theory (VRT). The VRT solvers can be divided into two types: deterministic and stochastic. The deterministic solver can only accept one set of single scattering property in its smallest discretized spatial volume. When the medium contains more than one kind of scatterer, their single scattering properties are averaged, and then used as input for the deterministic solver. The stochastic solver, can work with different kinds of scatterers explicitly. In this work, two different mixing schemes are studied using the Successive Order of Scattering (SOS) method and Monte Carlo (MC) methods. One scheme is used for deterministic and the other is used for the stochastic Monte Carlo method. It is found that the solutions from the two VRT solvers using two different mixing schemes agree with each other extremely well. This confirms the equivalence to the two mixing schemes and also provides a benchmark for the VRT solution for the medium studied.

Combining deterministic and stochastic velocity fields in the analysis of deep crustal seismic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larkin, Steven Paul

Standard crustal seismic modeling obtains deterministic velocity models which ignore the effects of wavelength-scale heterogeneity, known to exist within the Earth's crust. Stochastic velocity models are a means to include wavelength-scale heterogeneity in the modeling. These models are defined by statistical parameters obtained from geologic maps of exposed crystalline rock, and are thus tied to actual geologic structures. Combining both deterministic and stochastic velocity models into a single model allows a realistic full wavefield (2-D) to be computed. By comparing these simulations to recorded seismic data, the effects of wavelength-scale heterogeneity can be investigated. Combined deterministic and stochastic velocity models are created for two datasets, the 1992 RISC seismic experiment in southeastern California and the 1986 PASSCAL seismic experiment in northern Nevada. The RISC experiment was located in the transition zone between the Salton Trough and the southern Basin and Range province. A high-velocity body previously identified beneath the Salton Trough is constrained to pinch out beneath the Chocolate Mountains to the northeast. The lateral extent of this body is evidence for the ephemeral nature of rifting loci as a continent is initially rifted. Stochastic modeling of wavelength-scale structures above this body indicate that little more than 5% mafic intrusion into a more felsic continental crust is responsible for the observed reflectivity. Modeling of the wide-angle RISC data indicates that coda waves following PmP are initially dominated by diffusion of energy out of the near-surface basin as the wavefield reverberates within this low-velocity layer. At later times, this coda consists of scattered body waves and P to S conversions. Surface waves do not play a significant role in this coda. Modeling of the PASSCAL dataset indicates that a high-gradient crust-mantle transition zone or a rough Moho interface is necessary to reduce precritical PmP energy. Possibly related, inconsistencies in published velocity models are rectified by hypothesizing the existence of large, elongate, high-velocity bodies at the base of the crust oriented to and of similar scale as the basins and ranges at the surface. This structure would result in an anisotropic lower crust.

Tsunamigenic scenarios for southern Peru and northern Chile seismic gap: Deterministic and probabilistic hybrid approach for hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Carrasco, J. F.; Gonzalez, G.; Aránguiz, R.; Yanez, G. A.; Melgar, D.; Salazar, P.; Shrivastava, M. N.; Das, R.; Catalan, P. A.; Cienfuegos, R.

2017-12-01

Plausible worst-case tsunamigenic scenarios definition plays a relevant role in tsunami hazard assessment focused in emergency preparedness and evacuation planning for coastal communities. During the last decade, the occurrence of major and moderate tsunamigenic earthquakes along worldwide subduction zones has given clues about critical parameters involved in near-field tsunami inundation processes, i.e. slip spatial distribution, shelf resonance of edge waves and local geomorphology effects. To analyze the effects of these seismic and hydrodynamic variables over the epistemic uncertainty of coastal inundation, we implement a combined methodology using deterministic and probabilistic approaches to construct 420 tsunamigenic scenarios in a mature seismic gap of southern Peru and northern Chile, extended from 17ºS to 24ºS. The deterministic scenarios are calculated using a regional distribution of trench-parallel gravity anomaly (TPGA) and trench-parallel topography anomaly (TPTA), three-dimensional Slab 1.0 worldwide subduction zones geometry model and published interseismic coupling (ISC) distributions. As result, we find four higher slip deficit zones interpreted as major seismic asperities of the gap, used in a hierarchical tree scheme to generate ten tsunamigenic scenarios with seismic magnitudes fluctuates between Mw 8.4 to Mw 8.9. Additionally, we construct ten homogeneous slip scenarios as inundation baseline. For the probabilistic approach, we implement a Karhunen - Loève expansion to generate 400 stochastic tsunamigenic scenarios over the maximum extension of the gap, with the same magnitude range of the deterministic sources. All the scenarios are simulated through a non-hydrostatic tsunami model Neowave 2D, using a classical nesting scheme, for five coastal major cities in northern Chile (Arica, Iquique, Tocopilla, Mejillones and Antofagasta) obtaining high resolution data of inundation depth, runup, coastal currents and sea level elevation. The probabilistic kinematic tsunamigenic scenarios give a more realistic slip patterns, similar to maximum slip amount of major past earthquakes. For all studied sites, the peak of slip location and shelf resonance is a first order control for the observed coastal inundation depths results.

Propagation Terminal Design and Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nessel, James

2015-01-01

The NASA propagation terminal has been designed and developed by the Glenn Research Center and is presently deployed at over 5 NASA and partner ground stations worldwide collecting information on the effects of the atmosphere on Ka-band and millimeter wave communications links. This lecture provides an overview of the fundamentals and requirements of the measurement of atmospheric propagation effects and, specifically, the types of hardware and digital signal processing techniques employed by current state-of-the-art propagation terminal systems.

Application of a simplified theory of ELF propagation to a simplified worldwide model of the ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behroozi-Toosi, A. B.; Booker, H. G.

1980-12-01

The simplified theory of ELF wave propagation in the earth-ionosphere transmission lines developed by Booker (1980) is applied to a simplified worldwide model of the ionosphere. The theory, which involves the comparison of the local vertical refractive index gradient with the local wavelength in order to classify the altitude into regions of low and high gradient, is used for a model of electron and negative ion profiles in the D and E regions below 150 km. Attention is given to the frequency dependence of ELF propagation at a middle latitude under daytime conditions, the daytime latitude dependence of ELF propagation at the equinox, the effects of sunspot, seasonal and diurnal variations on propagation, nighttime propagation neglecting and including propagation above 100 km, and the effect on daytime ELF propagation of a sudden ionospheric disturbance. The numerical values obtained by the method for the propagation velocity and attenuation rate are shown to be in general agreement with the analytic Naval Ocean Systems Center computer program. It is concluded that the method employed gives more physical insights into propagation processes than any other method, while requiring less effort and providing maximal accuracy.

Three Dimensional Underwater Sound Propagation Over Sloping Bottoms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glegg, Stewart A. L.; Riley, J. M.

This article reviews the work which has been carried out over the past few years on three dimensional underwater sound propagation over sloping bottoms. When sound propagates across a slope three dimensional effects can cause shadow zones and mode cut off effects to occur, which could not be predicted by a two dimensional model. For many years the theory for this type of propagation over realistic ocean floors, which can support both compressional and shear waves, eluded workers in this field. Recently the complete solution for the acoustic field in a "wedge domain with penetrable boundaries" has been developed, and this has allowed for complete understanding of three dimensional bottom interacting sound propagation. These theories have been verified by a series of laboratory scale experiments and excellent agreement has been obtained. However only one full scale ocean experiment has been carried out on three dimensional, bottom interacting, acoustic propagation. This showed significant horizontal refraction of sound propagating across a continental slope and further verifies the importance of bottom slopes on underwater sound propagation.

Evaluating the risk of death via the hematopoietic syndrome mode for prolonged exposure of nuclear workers to radiation delivered at very low rates.

PubMed

Scott, B R; Lyzlov, A F; Osovets, S V

1998-05-01

During a Phase-I effort, studies were planned to evaluate deterministic (nonstochastic) effects of chronic exposure of nuclear workers at the Mayak atomic complex in the former Soviet Union to relatively high levels (> 0.25 Gy) of ionizing radiation. The Mayak complex has been used, since the late 1940's, to produce plutonium for nuclear weapons. Workers at Site A of the complex were involved in plutonium breeding using nuclear reactors, and some were exposed to relatively large doses of gamma rays plus relatively small neutron doses. The Weibull normalized-dose model, which has been set up to evaluate the risk of specific deterministic effects of combined, continuous exposure of humans to alpha, beta, and gamma radiations, is here adapted for chronic exposure to gamma rays and neutrons during repeated 6-h work shifts--as occurred for some nuclear workers at Site A. Using the adapted model, key conclusions were reached that will facilitate a Phase-II study of deterministic effects among Mayak workers. These conclusions include the following: (1) neutron doses may be more important for Mayak workers than for Japanese A-bomb victims in Hiroshima and can be accounted for using an adjusted dose (which accounts for neutron relative biological effectiveness); (2) to account for dose-rate effects, normalized dose X (a dimensionless fraction of an LD50 or ED50) can be evaluated in terms of an adjusted dose; (3) nonlinear dose-response curves for the risk of death via the hematopoietic mode can be converted to linear dose-response curves (for low levels of risk) using a newly proposed dimensionless dose, D = X(V), in units of Oklad (where D is pronounced "deh"), and V is the shape parameter in the Weibull model; (4) for X < or = Xo, where Xo is the threshold normalized dose, D = 0; (5) unlike absorbed dose, the dose D can be averaged over different Mayak workers in order to calculate the average risk of death via the hematopoietic mode for the population exposed at Site A; and (6) the expected cases of death via the hematopoietic syndrome mode for Mayak workers chronically exposed during work shifts at Site A to gamma rays and neutrons can be predicted using ln(2)B M[D]; where B (pronounced "beh") is the number of workers at risk (criticality accident victims excluded); and M[D] is the average (mean) value of D (averaged over the worker population at risk, for Site A, for the time period considered). These results can be used to facilitate a Phase II study of deterministic radiation effects among Mayak workers chronically exposed to gamma rays and neutrons.

Generating ultra wide low-frequency gap for transverse wave isolation via inertial amplification effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jingru; Li, Sheng

2018-02-01

Low-frequency transverse wave propagation plays a significant role in the out-of-plane vibration control. To efficiently attenuate the propagation of transverse waves at low-frequency range, this letter proposed a new type phononic beam by attaching inertial amplification mechanisms on it. The wave propagation of the beam with enhanced effective inertia is analyzed using the transfer matrix method. It is demonstrated that the low-frequency gap within inertial amplification effects can possess much wider bandwidth than using the local resonance method, thus is more suitable for designing applications to suppress transverse wave propagation.

Action potential propagation: ion current or intramembrane electric field?

PubMed

Martí, Albert; Pérez, Juan J; Madrenas, Jordi

2018-01-01

The established action potential propagation mechanisms do not satisfactorily explain propagation on myelinated axons given the current knowledge of biological channels and membranes. The flow across ion channels presents two possible effects: the electric potential variations across the lipid bilayers (action potential) and the propagation of an electric field through the membrane inner part. The proposed mechanism is based on intra-membrane electric field propagation, this propagation can explain the action potential saltatory propagation and its constant delay independent of distance between Ranvier nodes in myelinated axons.

Effects of structural error on the estimates of parameters of dynamical systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hadaegh, F. Y.; Bekey, G. A.

1986-01-01

In this paper, the notion of 'near-equivalence in probability' is introduced for identifying a system in the presence of several error sources. Following some basic definitions, necessary and sufficient conditions for the identifiability of parameters are given. The effects of structural error on the parameter estimates for both the deterministic and stochastic cases are considered.

From Sumatra 2004 to Today, through Tohoku-Oki 2011: what we learn about Tsunami detection by ionospheric sounding.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Occhipinti, G.; Rolland, L.; Watada, S.; Makela, J. J.; Bablet, A.; Coisson, P.; Lognonne, P. H.; Hebert, H.

2016-12-01

The tsunamigenic Tohoku earthquake (2011) strongly affirms, after the 26 December 2004, the necessity to open new paradigms in oceanic monitoring. Detection of ionospheric anomalies following the Sumatra earthquake tsunami (Occhipinti et al. 2006) demonstrated that ionosphere is sensitive to earthquake and tsunami propagation: ground and oceanic vertical displacement induces acoustic-gravity waves propagating within the neutral atmosphere and detectable in the ionosphere. Observations supported by modelling proved that tsunamigenic ionospheric anomalies are deterministic and reproducible by numerical modeling (Occhipinti et al., 2008). To prove that the tsunami signature in the ionosphere is routinely detected we show perturbations of total electron content (TEC) measured by GPS and following tsunamigenic eartquakes from 2004 to 2011 (Rolland et al. 2010, Occhipinti et al., 2013), nominally, Sumatra (26 December, 2004 and 12 September, 2007), Chile (14 November, 2007), Samoa (29 September, 2009) and the Tohoku-Oki (11 Mars, 2011). Additionally, new exciting measurements in the far-field were performed by Airglow measurement in Hawaii: those measurements show the propagation of the IGWs induced by the Tohoku tsunami in the Pacific Ocean (Occhipinti et al., 2011), as well as by two new recent tsunamis: the Queen Charlotte (27 October, 2013, Mw 7,7) and Chili (16 September, 2015, Mw 8.2). The detection of those two new events strongly confirm the potential interest and perspective of the tsunami monitoring by airglow camera, ground-located or potentially onboard on satelites. Based on the observations close to the epicenter, mainly performed by GPS networks located in Sumatra, Chile and Japan, we highlight the TEC perturbation observed within the first hour after the seismic rupture (Occhipinti et al., 2013). This perturbation contains informations about the ground displacement, as well as the consequent sea surface displacement resulting in the tsunami. In this talk we present all this new tsunami observations in the ionosphere and we discuss, under the light of modelling, the potential role of ionospheric sounding in the oceanic monitoring and future tsunami warning system (Occhipinti, 2015). All ref. here @ www.ipgp.fr/ ninto

Ionospheric detection of tsunami earthquakes: observation, modeling and ideas for future early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Occhipinti, G.; Manta, F.; Rolland, L.; Watada, S.; Makela, J. J.; Hill, E.; Astafieva, E.; Lognonne, P. H.

2017-12-01

Detection of ionospheric anomalies following the Sumatra and Tohoku earthquakes (e.g., Occhipinti 2015) demonstrated that ionosphere is sensitive to earthquake and tsunami propagation: ground and oceanic vertical displacement induces acoustic-gravity waves propagating within the neutral atmosphere and detectable in the ionosphere. Observations supported by modelling proved that ionospheric anomalies related to tsunamis are deterministic and reproducible by numerical modeling via the ocean/neutral-atmosphere/ionosphere coupling mechanism (Occhipinti et al., 2008). To prove that the tsunami signature in the ionosphere is routinely detected we show here perturbations of total electron content (TEC) measured by GPS and following tsunamigenic earthquakes from 2004 to 2011 (Rolland et al. 2010, Occhipinti et al., 2013), nominally, Sumatra (26 December, 2004 and 12 September, 2007), Chile (14 November, 2007), Samoa (29 September, 2009) and the recent Tohoku-Oki (11 Mars, 2011). Based on the observations close to the epicenter, mainly performed by GPS networks located in Sumatra, Chile and Japan, we highlight the TEC perturbation observed within the first 8 min after the seismic rupture. This perturbation contains information about the ground displacement, as well as the consequent sea surface displacement resulting in the tsunami. In addition to GNSS-TEC observations close to the epicenter, new exciting measurements in the far-field were performed by airglow measurement in Hawaii show the propagation of the internal gravity waves induced by the Tohoku tsunami (Occhipinti et al., 2011). This revolutionary imaging technique is today supported by two new observations of moderate tsunamis: Queen Charlotte (M: 7.7, 27 October, 2013) and Chile (M: 8.2, 16 September 2015). We finally detail here our recent work (Manta et al., 2017) on the case of tsunami alert failure following the Mw7.8 Mentawai event (25 October, 2010), and its twin tsunami alert response following the Mw7.8 Benyak event (2010). In this talk we present all this new tsunami observations in the ionosphere and we discuss, under the light of modelling, the potential role of ionospheric sounding by GNSS-TEC and airglow cameras in oceanic monitoring and future tsunami warning system. All ref. here @ www.ipgp.fr/ ninto

Development of a flood early warning system and communication with end-users: the Vipava/Vipacco case study in the KULTURisk FP7 project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossi, Giovanna; Caronna, Paolo; Ranzi, Roberto

2014-05-01

Within the framework of risk communication, the goal of an early warning system is to support the interaction between technicians and authorities (and subsequently population) as a prevention measure. The methodology proposed in the KULTURisk FP7 project aimed to build a closer collaboration between these actors, in the perspective of promoting pro-active actions to mitigate the effects of flood hazards. The transnational (Slovenia/ Italy) Soča/Isonzo case study focused on this concept of cooperation between stakeholders and hydrological forecasters. The DIMOSHONG_VIP hydrological model was calibrated for the Vipava/Vipacco River (650 km2), a tributary of the Soča/Isonzo River, on the basis of flood events occurred between 1998 and 2012. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) provided the past meteorological forecasts, both deterministic (1 forecast) and probabilistic (51 ensemble members). The resolution of the ECMWF grid is currently about 15 km (Deterministic-DET) and 30 km (Ensemble Prediction System-EPS). A verification was conducted to validate the flood-forecast outputs of the DIMOSHONG_VIP+ECMWF early warning system. Basic descriptive statistics, like event probability, probability of a forecast occurrence and frequency bias were determined. Some performance measures were calculated, such as hit rate (probability of detection) and false alarm rate (probability of false detection). Relative Opening Characteristic (ROC) curves were generated both for deterministic and probabilistic forecasts. These analysis showed a good performance of the early warning system, in respect of the small size of the sample. A particular attention was spent to the design of flood-forecasting output charts, involving and inquiring stakeholders (Alto Adriatico River Basin Authority), hydrology specialists in the field, and common people. Graph types for both forecasted precipitation and discharge were set. Three different risk thresholds were identified ("attention", "pre-alarm" or "alert", "alarm"), with an "icon-style" representation, suitable for communication to civil protection stakeholders or the public. Aiming at showing probabilistic representations in a "user-friendly" way, we opted for the visualization of the single deterministic forecasted hydrograph together with the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% percentiles bands of the Hydrological Ensemble Prediction System (HEPS). HEPS is generally used for 3-5 days hydrological forecasts, while the error due to incorrect initial data is comparable to the error due to the lower resolution with respect to the deterministic forecast. In the short term forecasting (12-48 hours) the HEPS-members show obviously a similar tendency; in this case, considering its higher resolution, the deterministic forecast is expected to be more effective. The plot of different forecasts in the same chart allows the use of model outputs from 4/5 days to few hours before a potential flood event. This framework was built to help a stakeholder, like a mayor, a civil protection authority, etc, in the flood control and management operations, and was designed to be included in a wider decision support system.

Deterministic models for traffic jams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagel, Kai; Herrmann, Hans J.

1993-10-01

We study several deterministic one-dimensional traffic models. For integer positions and velocities we find the typical high and low density phases separated by a simple transition. If positions and velocities are continuous variables the model shows self-organized critically driven by the slowest car.

Robust Planning for Effects-Based Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-06-01

Algorithm ......................................... 34 2.6 Robust Optimization Literature ..................................... 36 2.6.1 Protecting Against...Model Formulation ...................... 55 3.1.5 Deterministic EBO Model Example and Performance ............. 59 3.1.6 Greedy Algorithm ...111 4.1.9 Conclusions on Robust EBO Model Performance .................... 116 4.2 Greedy Algorithm versus EBO Models

SIMULATED CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON DISSOLVED OXYGEN CHARACTERISTICS IN ICE-COVERED LAKES. (R824801)

EPA Science Inventory

A deterministic, one-dimensional model is presented which simulates daily dissolved oxygen (DO) profiles and associated water temperatures, ice covers and snow covers for dimictic and polymictic lakes of the temperate zone. The lake parameters required as model input are surface ...

Matrix Population Model for Estimating Effects from Time-Varying Aquatic Exposures: Technical Documentation

EPA Science Inventory

The Office of Pesticide Programs models daily aquatic pesticide exposure values for 30 years in its risk assessments. However, only a fraction of that information is typically used in these assessments. The population model employed herein is a deterministic, density-dependent pe...

49 CFR 195.111 - Fracture propagation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 49 Transportation 3 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Fracture propagation. 195.111 Section 195.111... PIPELINE Design Requirements § 195.111 Fracture propagation. A carbon dioxide pipeline system must be designed to mitigate the effects of fracture propagation. [Amdt. 195-45, 56 FR 26926, June 12, 1991] ...

49 CFR 195.111 - Fracture propagation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 49 Transportation 3 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Fracture propagation. 195.111 Section 195.111... PIPELINE Design Requirements § 195.111 Fracture propagation. A carbon dioxide pipeline system must be designed to mitigate the effects of fracture propagation. [Amdt. 195-45, 56 FR 26926, June 12, 1991] ...

49 CFR 195.111 - Fracture propagation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Fracture propagation. 195.111 Section 195.111... PIPELINE Design Requirements § 195.111 Fracture propagation. A carbon dioxide pipeline system must be designed to mitigate the effects of fracture propagation. [Amdt. 195-45, 56 FR 26926, June 12, 1991] ...

49 CFR 195.111 - Fracture propagation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 49 Transportation 3 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Fracture propagation. 195.111 Section 195.111... PIPELINE Design Requirements § 195.111 Fracture propagation. A carbon dioxide pipeline system must be designed to mitigate the effects of fracture propagation. [Amdt. 195-45, 56 FR 26926, June 12, 1991] ...

49 CFR 195.111 - Fracture propagation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 49 Transportation 3 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Fracture propagation. 195.111 Section 195.111... PIPELINE Design Requirements § 195.111 Fracture propagation. A carbon dioxide pipeline system must be designed to mitigate the effects of fracture propagation. [Amdt. 195-45, 56 FR 26926, June 12, 1991] ...

Soil pH mediates the balance between stochastic and deterministic assembly of bacteria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tripathi, Binu M.; Stegen, James C.; Kim, Mincheol

Little is known about the factors affecting the relative influence of stochastic and deterministic processes that governs the assembly of microbial communities in successional soils. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis of bacterial communities using six different successional soils data sets, scattered across different regions, with different pH conditions in early and late successional soils. We found that soil pH was the best predictor of bacterial community assembly and the relative importance of stochastic and deterministic processes along successional soils. Extreme acidic or alkaline pH conditions lead to assembly of phylogenetically more clustered bacterial communities through deterministic processes, whereas pH conditionsmore » close to neutral lead to phylogenetically less clustered bacterial communities with more stochasticity. We suggest that the influence of pH, rather than successional age, is the main driving force in producing trends in phylogenetic assembly of bacteria, and that pH also influences the relative balance of stochastic and deterministic processes along successional soils. Given that pH had a much stronger association with community assembly than did successional age, we evaluated whether the inferred influence of pH was maintained when studying globally-distributed samples collected without regard for successional age. This dataset confirmed the strong influence of pH, suggesting that the influence of soil pH on community assembly processes occurs globally. Extreme pH conditions likely exert more stringent limits on survival and fitness, imposing strong selective pressures through ecological and evolutionary time. Taken together, these findings suggest that the degree to which stochastic vs. deterministic processes shape soil bacterial community assembly is a consequence of soil pH rather than successional age.« less

The meta-Gaussian Bayesian Processor of forecasts and associated preliminary experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Fajing; Jiao, Meiyan; Chen, Jing

2013-04-01

Public weather services are trending toward providing users with probabilistic weather forecasts, in place of traditional deterministic forecasts. Probabilistic forecasting techniques are continually being improved to optimize available forecasting information. The Bayesian Processor of Forecast (BPF), a new statistical method for probabilistic forecast, can transform a deterministic forecast into a probabilistic forecast according to the historical statistical relationship between observations and forecasts generated by that forecasting system. This technique accounts for the typical forecasting performance of a deterministic forecasting system in quantifying the forecast uncertainty. The meta-Gaussian likelihood model is suitable for a variety of stochastic dependence structures with monotone likelihood ratios. The meta-Gaussian BPF adopting this kind of likelihood model can therefore be applied across many fields, including meteorology and hydrology. The Bayes theorem with two continuous random variables and the normal-linear BPF are briefly introduced. The meta-Gaussian BPF for a continuous predictand using a single predictor is then presented and discussed. The performance of the meta-Gaussian BPF is tested in a preliminary experiment. Control forecasts of daily surface temperature at 0000 UTC at Changsha and Wuhan stations are used as the deterministic forecast data. These control forecasts are taken from ensemble predictions with a 96-h lead time generated by the National Meteorological Center of the China Meteorological Administration, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction during January 2008. The results of the experiment show that the meta-Gaussian BPF can transform a deterministic control forecast of surface temperature from any one of the three ensemble predictions into a useful probabilistic forecast of surface temperature. These probabilistic forecasts quantify the uncertainty of the control forecast; accordingly, the performance of the probabilistic forecasts differs based on the source of the underlying deterministic control forecasts.

Capturing atmospheric effects on 3D millimeter wave radar propagation patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, Richard D.; Fiorino, Steven T.; Keefer, Kevin J.; Stringer, Jeremy

2016-05-01

Traditional radar propagation modeling is done using a path transmittance with little to no input for weather and atmospheric conditions. As radar advances into the millimeter wave (MMW) regime, atmospheric effects such as attenuation and refraction become more pronounced than at traditional radar wavelengths. The DoD High Energy Laser Joint Technology Offices High Energy Laser End-to-End Operational Simulation (HELEEOS) in combination with the Laser Environmental Effects Definition and Reference (LEEDR) code have shown great promise simulating atmospheric effects on laser propagation. Indeed, the LEEDR radiative transfer code has been validated in the UV through RF. Our research attempts to apply these models to characterize the far field radar pattern in three dimensions as a signal propagates from an antenna towards a point in space. Furthermore, we do so using realistic three dimensional atmospheric profiles. The results from these simulations are compared to those from traditional radar propagation software packages. In summary, a fast running method has been investigated which can be incorporated into computational models to enhance understanding and prediction of MMW propagation through various atmospheric and weather conditions.

Effect of Speed (Centrifugal Load) on Gear Crack Propagation Direction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewicki, David G.

2001-01-01

The effect of rotational speed (centrifugal force) on gear crack propagation direction was explored. Gears were analyzed using finite element analysis and linear elastic fracture mechanics. The analysis was validated with crack propagation experiments performed in a spur gear fatigue rig. The effects of speed, rim thickness, and initial crack location on gear crack propagation direction were investigated. Crack paths from the finite element method correlated well with those deduced from gear experiments. For the test gear with a backup ratio (rim thickness divided by tooth height) of nib = 0.5, cracks initiating in the tooth fillet propagated to rim fractures when run at a speed of 10,000 rpm and became tooth fractures for speeds slower than 10,000 rpm for both the experiments and anal sis. From additional analysis, speed had little effect on crack propagation direction except when initial crack locations were near the tooth/rim fracture transition point for a given backup ratio. When at that point, higher speeds tended to promote rim fracture while lower speeds (or neglecting centrifugal force) produced tooth fractures.

A simple three dimensional wide-angle beam propagation method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Changbao; van Keuren, Edward

2006-05-01

The development of three dimensional (3-D) waveguide structures for chip scale planar lightwave circuits (PLCs) is hampered by the lack of effective 3-D wide-angle (WA) beam propagation methods (BPMs). We present a simple 3-D wide-angle beam propagation method (WA-BPM) using Hoekstra’s scheme along with a new 3-D wave equation splitting method. The applicability, accuracy and effectiveness of our method are demonstrated by applying it to simulations of wide-angle beam propagation and comparing them with analytical solutions.

A simple three dimensional wide-angle beam propagation method.

PubMed

Ma, Changbao; Van Keuren, Edward

2006-05-29

The development of three dimensional (3-D) waveguide structures for chip scale planar lightwave circuits (PLCs) is hampered by the lack of effective 3-D wide-angle (WA) beam propagation methods (BPMs). We present a simple 3-D wide-angle beam propagation method (WA-BPM) using Hoekstra's scheme along with a new 3-D wave equation splitting method. The applicability, accuracy and effectiveness of our method are demonstrated by applying it to simulations of wide-angle beam propagation and comparing them with analytical solutions.

Sythesis of MCMC and Belief Propagation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ahn, Sungsoo; Chertkov, Michael; Shin, Jinwoo

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Belief Propagation (BP) are the most popular algorithms for computational inference in Graphical Models (GM). In principle, MCMC is an exact probabilistic method which, however, often suffers from exponentially slow mixing. In contrast, BP is a deterministic method, which is typically fast, empirically very successful, however in general lacking control of accuracy over loopy graphs. In this paper, we introduce MCMC algorithms correcting the approximation error of BP, i.e., we provide a way to compensate for BP errors via a consecutive BP-aware MCMC. Our framework is based on the Loop Calculus (LC) approach whichmore » allows to express the BP error as a sum of weighted generalized loops. Although the full series is computationally intractable, it is known that a truncated series, summing up all 2-regular loops, is computable in polynomial-time for planar pair-wise binary GMs and it also provides a highly accurate approximation empirically. Motivated by this, we first propose a polynomial-time approximation MCMC scheme for the truncated series of general (non-planar) pair-wise binary models. Our main idea here is to use the Worm algorithm, known to provide fast mixing in other (related) problems, and then design an appropriate rejection scheme to sample 2-regular loops. Furthermore, we also design an efficient rejection-free MCMC scheme for approximating the full series. The main novelty underlying our design is in utilizing the concept of cycle basis, which provides an efficient decomposition of the generalized loops. In essence, the proposed MCMC schemes run on transformed GM built upon the non-trivial BP solution, and our experiments show that this synthesis of BP and MCMC outperforms both direct MCMC and bare BP schemes.« less

Precipitation From a Multiyear Database of Convection-Allowing WRF Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goines, D. C.; Kennedy, A. D.

2018-03-01

Convection-allowing models (CAMs) have become frequently used for operational forecasting and, more recently, have been utilized for general circulation model downscaling. CAM forecasts have typically been analyzed for a few case studies or over short time periods, but this limits the ability to judge the overall skill of deterministic simulations. Analysis over long time periods can yield a better understanding of systematic model error. Four years of warm season (April-August, 2010-2013)-simulated precipitation has been accumulated from two Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models with 4 km grid spacing. The simulations were provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), each with different dynamic cores and parameterization schemes. These simulations are evaluated against the NCEP Stage-IV precipitation data set with similar 4 km grid spacing. The spatial distribution and diurnal cycle of precipitation in the central United States are analyzed using Hovmöller diagrams, grid point correlations, and traditional verification skill scoring (i.e., ETS; Equitable Threat Score). Although NCEP-WRF had a high positive error in total precipitation, spatial characteristics were similar to observations. For example, the spatial distribution of NCEP-WRF precipitation correlated better than NSSL-WRF for the Northern Plains. Hovmöller results exposed a delay in initiation and decay of diurnal precipitation by NCEP-WRF while both models had difficulty in reproducing the timing and location of propagating precipitation. ETS was highest for NSSL-WRF in all domains at all times. ETS was also higher in areas of propagating precipitation compared to areas of unorganized diurnal scattered precipitation. Monthly analysis identified unique differences between the two models in their abilities to correctly simulate the spatial distribution and zonal motion of precipitation through the warm season.

Discrete Wigner formalism for qubits and noncontextuality of Clifford gates on qubit stabilizer states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kocia, Lucas; Love, Peter

2017-12-01

We show that qubit stabilizer states can be represented by non-negative quasiprobability distributions associated with a Wigner-Weyl-Moyal formalism where Clifford gates are positive state-independent maps. This is accomplished by generalizing the Wigner-Weyl-Moyal formalism to three generators instead of two—producing an exterior, or Grassmann, algebra—which results in Clifford group gates for qubits that act as a permutation on the finite Weyl phase space points naturally associated with stabilizer states. As a result, a non-negative probability distribution can be associated with each stabilizer state's three-generator Wigner function, and these distributions evolve deterministically to one another under Clifford gates. This corresponds to a hidden variable theory that is noncontextual and local for qubit Clifford gates while Clifford (Pauli) measurements have a context-dependent representation. Equivalently, we show that qubit Clifford gates can be expressed as propagators within the three-generator Wigner-Weyl-Moyal formalism whose semiclassical expansion is truncated at order ℏ0 with a finite number of terms. The T gate, which extends the Clifford gate set to one capable of universal quantum computation, requires a semiclassical expansion of the propagator to order ℏ1. We compare this approach to previous quasiprobability descriptions of qubits that relied on the two-generator Wigner-Weyl-Moyal formalism and find that the two-generator Weyl symbols of stabilizer states result in a description of evolution under Clifford gates that is state-dependent, in contrast to the three-generator formalism. We have thus extended Wigner non-negative quasiprobability distributions from the odd d -dimensional case to d =2 qubits, which describe the noncontextuality of Clifford gates and contextuality of Pauli measurements on qubit stabilizer states.

Simulation-based reasoning about the physical propagation of fault effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feyock, Stefan; Li, Dalu

1990-01-01

The research described deals with the effects of faults on complex physical systems, with particular emphasis on aircraft and spacecraft systems. Given that a malfunction has occurred and been diagnosed, the goal is to determine how that fault will propagate to other subsystems, and what the effects will be on vehicle functionality. In particular, the use of qualitative spatial simulation to determine the physical propagation of fault effects in 3-D space is described.

Lunar Surface Propagation Modeling and Effects on Communications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hwu, Shian U.; Upanavage, Matthew; Sham, Catherine C.

2008-01-01

This paper analyzes the lunar terrain effects on the signal propagation of the planned NASA lunar wireless communication and sensor systems. It is observed that the propagation characteristics are significantly affected by the presence of the lunar terrain. The obtained results indicate that the terrain geometry, antenna location, and lunar surface material are important factors determining the propagation characteristics of the lunar wireless communication systems. The path loss can be much more severe than the free space propagation and is greatly affected by the antenna height, operating frequency, and surface material. The analysis results from this paper are important for the lunar communication link margin analysis in determining the limits on the reliable communication range and radio frequency coverage performance at planned lunar base worksites. Key Words lunar, multipath, path loss, propagation, wireless.

Faithful One-way Trip Deterministic Secure Quantum Communication Scheme Against Collective Rotating Noise Based on Order Rearrangement of Photon Pairs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Hao; Zhang, Qin; Hong, Liang; Yin, Wen-jie; Xu, Dong

2014-08-01

We present a novel scheme for deterministic secure quantum communication (DSQC) over collective rotating noisy channel. Four special two-qubit states are found can constitute a noise-free subspaces, and so are utilized as quantum information carriers. In this scheme, the information carriers transmite over the quantum channel only one time, which can effectively reduce the influence of other noise existing in quantum channel. The information receiver need only perform two single-photon collective measurements to decode the secret messages, which can make the present scheme more convenient in practical application. It will be showed that our scheme has a relatively high information capacity and intrisic efficiency. Foremostly, the decoy photon pair checking technique and the order rearrangement of photon pairs technique guarantee that the present scheme is unconditionally secure.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wiebenga, J. H.; Atzema, E. H.; Boogaard, A. H. van den

Robust design of forming processes using numerical simulations is gaining attention throughout the industry. In this work, it is demonstrated how robust optimization can assist in further stretching the limits of metal forming processes. A deterministic and a robust optimization study are performed, considering a stretch-drawing process of a hemispherical cup product. For the robust optimization study, both the effect of material and process scatter are taken into account. For quantifying the material scatter, samples of 41 coils of a drawing quality forming steel have been collected. The stochastic material behavior is obtained by a hybrid approach, combining mechanical testingmore » and texture analysis, and efficiently implemented in a metamodel based optimization strategy. The deterministic and robust optimization results are subsequently presented and compared, demonstrating an increased process robustness and decreased number of product rejects by application of the robust optimization approach.« less

Elasto-limited plastic analysis of structures for probabilistic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Movahedi Rad, M.

2018-06-01

With applying plastic analysis and design methods, significant saving in material can be obtained. However, as a result of this benefit excessive plastic deformations and large residual displacements might develop, which in turn might lead to unserviceability and collapse of the structure. In this study, for deterministic problem the residual deformation of structures is limited by considering a constraint on the complementary strain energy of the residual forces. For probabilistic problem the constraint for the complementary strain energy of the residual forces is given randomly and critical stresses updated during the iteration. Limit curves are presented for the plastic limit load factors. The results show that these constraints have significant effects on the load factors. The formulations of the deterministic and probabilistic problems lead to mathematical programming which are solved by the use of nonlinear algorithm.

Stochastic partial differential fluid equations as a diffusive limit of deterministic Lagrangian multi-time dynamics.

PubMed

Cotter, C J; Gottwald, G A; Holm, D D

2017-09-01

In Holm (Holm 2015 Proc. R. Soc. A 471 , 20140963. (doi:10.1098/rspa.2014.0963)), stochastic fluid equations were derived by employing a variational principle with an assumed stochastic Lagrangian particle dynamics. Here we show that the same stochastic Lagrangian dynamics naturally arises in a multi-scale decomposition of the deterministic Lagrangian flow map into a slow large-scale mean and a rapidly fluctuating small-scale map. We employ homogenization theory to derive effective slow stochastic particle dynamics for the resolved mean part, thereby obtaining stochastic fluid partial equations in the Eulerian formulation. To justify the application of rigorous homogenization theory, we assume mildly chaotic fast small-scale dynamics, as well as a centring condition. The latter requires that the mean of the fluctuating deviations is small, when pulled back to the mean flow.

Cognitive Diagnostic Analysis Using Hierarchically Structured Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Su, Yu-Lan

2013-01-01

This dissertation proposes two modified cognitive diagnostic models (CDMs), the deterministic, inputs, noisy, "and" gate with hierarchy (DINA-H) model and the deterministic, inputs, noisy, "or" gate with hierarchy (DINO-H) model. Both models incorporate the hierarchical structures of the cognitive skills in the model estimation…

Deterministic Mean-Field Ensemble Kalman Filtering

DOE PAGES

Law, Kody J. H.; Tembine, Hamidou; Tempone, Raul

2016-05-03

The proof of convergence of the standard ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) from Le Gland, Monbet, and Tran [Large sample asymptotics for the ensemble Kalman filter, in The Oxford Handbook of Nonlinear Filtering, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, 2011, pp. 598--631] is extended to non-Gaussian state-space models. In this paper, a density-based deterministic approximation of the mean-field limit EnKF (DMFEnKF) is proposed, consisting of a PDE solver and a quadrature rule. Given a certain minimal order of convergence κ between the two, this extends to the deterministic filter approximation, which is therefore asymptotically superior to standard EnKF for dimension d

Active temporal multiplexing of indistinguishable heralded single photons

PubMed Central

Xiong, C.; Zhang, X.; Liu, Z.; Collins, M. J.; Mahendra, A.; Helt, L. G.; Steel, M. J.; Choi, D. -Y.; Chae, C. J.; Leong, P. H. W.; Eggleton, B. J.

2016-01-01

It is a fundamental challenge in quantum optics to deterministically generate indistinguishable single photons through non-deterministic nonlinear optical processes, due to the intrinsic coupling of single- and multi-photon-generation probabilities in these processes. Actively multiplexing photons generated in many temporal modes can decouple these probabilities, but key issues are to minimize resource requirements to allow scalability, and to ensure indistinguishability of the generated photons. Here we demonstrate the multiplexing of photons from four temporal modes solely using fibre-integrated optics and off-the-shelf electronic components. We show a 100% enhancement to the single-photon output probability without introducing additional multi-photon noise. Photon indistinguishability is confirmed by a fourfold Hong–Ou–Mandel quantum interference with a 91±16% visibility after subtracting multi-photon noise due to high pump power. Our demonstration paves the way for scalable multiplexing of many non-deterministic photon sources to a single near-deterministic source, which will be of benefit to future quantum photonic technologies. PMID:26996317

Recent progress in the assembly of nanodevices and van der Waals heterostructures by deterministic placement of 2D materials.

PubMed

Frisenda, Riccardo; Navarro-Moratalla, Efrén; Gant, Patricia; Pérez De Lara, David; Jarillo-Herrero, Pablo; Gorbachev, Roman V; Castellanos-Gomez, Andres

2018-01-02

Designer heterostructures can now be assembled layer-by-layer with unmatched precision thanks to the recently developed deterministic placement methods to transfer two-dimensional (2D) materials. This possibility constitutes the birth of a very active research field on the so-called van der Waals heterostructures. Moreover, these deterministic placement methods also open the door to fabricate complex devices, which would be otherwise very difficult to achieve by conventional bottom-up nanofabrication approaches, and to fabricate fully-encapsulated devices with exquisite electronic properties. The integration of 2D materials with existing technologies such as photonic and superconducting waveguides and fiber optics is another exciting possibility. Here, we review the state-of-the-art of the deterministic placement methods, describing and comparing the different alternative methods available in the literature, and we illustrate their potential to fabricate van der Waals heterostructures, to integrate 2D materials into complex devices and to fabricate artificial bilayer structures where the layers present a user-defined rotational twisting angle.

Deterministic Mean-Field Ensemble Kalman Filtering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Law, Kody J. H.; Tembine, Hamidou; Tempone, Raul

The proof of convergence of the standard ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) from Le Gland, Monbet, and Tran [Large sample asymptotics for the ensemble Kalman filter, in The Oxford Handbook of Nonlinear Filtering, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, 2011, pp. 598--631] is extended to non-Gaussian state-space models. In this paper, a density-based deterministic approximation of the mean-field limit EnKF (DMFEnKF) is proposed, consisting of a PDE solver and a quadrature rule. Given a certain minimal order of convergence κ between the two, this extends to the deterministic filter approximation, which is therefore asymptotically superior to standard EnKF for dimension d

Propagation properties of a partially coherent radially polarized beam in atmospheric turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Guo; Wang, Lin; Wang, Jue; Zhou, Muchun; Song, Minmin

2018-07-01

Based on the extended Huygens-Fresnel integral, second-order moments of the Wigner distribution function of a partially coherent radially polarized beam propagating through atmospheric turbulence are derived. Besides, propagation properties such as the mean-squared beam width, angular width, effective radius of curvature, beam propagation factor and Rayleigh range can also be obtained and calculated numerically. It is shown that the propagation properties are dependent on the spatial correlation length, refraction index structure constant and propagation distance.

Improving Deterministic Reserve Requirements for Security Constrained Unit Commitment and Scheduling Problems in Power Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Fengyu

Traditional deterministic reserve requirements rely on ad-hoc, rule of thumb methods to determine adequate reserve in order to ensure a reliable unit commitment. Since congestion and uncertainties exist in the system, both the quantity and the location of reserves are essential to ensure system reliability and market efficiency. The modeling of operating reserves in the existing deterministic reserve requirements acquire the operating reserves on a zonal basis and do not fully capture the impact of congestion. The purpose of a reserve zone is to ensure that operating reserves are spread across the network. Operating reserves are shared inside each reserve zone, but intra-zonal congestion may block the deliverability of operating reserves within a zone. Thus, improving reserve policies such as reserve zones may improve the location and deliverability of reserve. As more non-dispatchable renewable resources are integrated into the grid, it will become increasingly difficult to predict the transfer capabilities and the network congestion. At the same time, renewable resources require operators to acquire more operating reserves. With existing deterministic reserve requirements unable to ensure optimal reserve locations, the importance of reserve location and reserve deliverability will increase. While stochastic programming can be used to determine reserve by explicitly modelling uncertainties, there are still scalability as well as pricing issues. Therefore, new methods to improve existing deterministic reserve requirements are desired. One key barrier of improving existing deterministic reserve requirements is its potential market impacts. A metric, quality of service, is proposed in this thesis to evaluate the price signal and market impacts of proposed hourly reserve zones. Three main goals of this thesis are: 1) to develop a theoretical and mathematical model to better locate reserve while maintaining the deterministic unit commitment and economic dispatch structure, especially with the consideration of renewables, 2) to develop a market settlement scheme of proposed dynamic reserve policies such that the market efficiency is improved, 3) to evaluate the market impacts and price signal of the proposed dynamic reserve policies.

An Equilibrium Flow Model of a University Campus.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oliver, Robert M.; Hopkins, David S. P.

This paper develops a simple deterministic model that relates student admissions and enrollments to the final demand for educated students. It includes the effects of dropout rates and student-teacher ratios on student enrollments and faculty staffing levels. Certain technological requirements are assumed known and given. These, as well as the…

Mathematical demography of spotted owls in the Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

B.R. Noon; C.M. Biles

1990-01-01

We examined the mathematical demography of northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) using simple deterministic population models. Our goals were to gain insights into the life history strategy, to determine demographic attributes most affecting changes in population size, and to provide guidelines for effective management of spotted owl...

Parameter Estimation in Epidemiology: from Simple to Complex Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguiar, Maíra; Ballesteros, Sebastién; Boto, João Pedro; Kooi, Bob W.; Mateus, Luís; Stollenwerk, Nico

2011-09-01

We revisit the parameter estimation framework for population biological dynamical systems, and apply it to calibrate various models in epidemiology with empirical time series, namely influenza and dengue fever. When it comes to more complex models like multi-strain dynamics to describe the virus-host interaction in dengue fever, even most recently developed parameter estimation techniques, like maximum likelihood iterated filtering, come to their computational limits. However, the first results of parameter estimation with data on dengue fever from Thailand indicate a subtle interplay between stochasticity and deterministic skeleton. The deterministic system on its own already displays complex dynamics up to deterministic chaos and coexistence of multiple attractors.

Quantifying the Effects of Propagation on Classification of Cetacean Vocalizations

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

mammals can be found in all ocean basins, their habitats cover diverse underwater environments. It is well known that acoustic propagation can vary...propagation on an automated classifier, using both underwater propagation experiments and complementary modeling. If propagation does impact some... Underwater Sound, 3rd ed., McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1983. [2] F. B. Jensen, W. A. Kuperman, M.B. Porter, and H. Schmidt, Computational Ocean Acoustics

Proceedings of the Twentieth NASA Propagation Experimenters Meeting (NAPEX XX) and the Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) Propagation Studies Miniworkshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Golshan, Nassar (Editor)

1996-01-01

The NASA Propagation Experimenters (NAPEX) Meeting and associated Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) Propagation Studies Miniworkshop convene yearly to discuss studies supported by the NASA Propagation Program. Representatives from the satellite communications (satcom)industry, academia, and government with an interest in space-ground radio wave propagation have peer discussion of work in progress, disseminate propagation results, and interact with the satcom industry. NAPEX XX, in Fairbanks, Alaska, June 4-5, 1996, had three sessions: (1) "ACTS Propagation Study: Background, Objectives, and Outcomes," covered results from thirteen station-years of Ka-band experiments; (2) "Propagation Studies for Mobile and Personal Satellite Applications," provided the latest developments in measurement, modeling, and dissemination of propagation phenomena of interest to the mobile, personal, and aeronautical satcom industry; and (3)"Propagation Research Topics," covered a range of topics including space/ground optical propagation experiments, propagation databases, the NASA Propagation Web Site, and revision plans for the NASA propagation effects handbooks. The ACTS Miniworkshop, June 6, 1996, covered ACTS status, engineering support for ACTS propagation terminals, and the ACTS Propagation Data Center. A plenary session made specific recommendations for the future direction of the program.

Comparison of space radiation calculations for deterministic and Monte Carlo transport codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Zi-Wei; Adams, James; Barghouty, Abdulnasser; Randeniya, Sharmalee; Tripathi, Ram; Watts, John; Yepes, Pablo

For space radiation protection of astronauts or electronic equipments, it is necessary to develop and use accurate radiation transport codes. Radiation transport codes include deterministic codes, such as HZETRN from NASA and UPROP from the Naval Research Laboratory, and Monte Carlo codes such as FLUKA, the Geant4 toolkit and HETC-HEDS. The deterministic codes and Monte Carlo codes complement each other in that deterministic codes are very fast while Monte Carlo codes are more elaborate. Therefore it is important to investigate how well the results of deterministic codes compare with those of Monte Carlo transport codes and where they differ. In this study we evaluate these different codes in their space radiation applications by comparing their output results in the same given space radiation environments, shielding geometry and material. Typical space radiation environments such as the 1977 solar minimum galactic cosmic ray environment are used as the well-defined input, and simple geometries made of aluminum, water and/or polyethylene are used to represent the shielding material. We then compare various outputs of these codes, such as the dose-depth curves and the flux spectra of different fragments and other secondary particles. These comparisons enable us to learn more about the main differences between these space radiation transport codes. At the same time, they help us to learn the qualitative and quantitative features that these transport codes have in common.

Extraction of angle deterministic signals in the presence of stationary speed fluctuations with cyclostationary blind source separation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delvecchio, S.; Antoni, J.

2012-02-01

This paper addresses the use of a cyclostationary blind source separation algorithm (namely RRCR) to extract angle deterministic signals from mechanical rotating machines in presence of stationary speed fluctuations. This means that only phase fluctuations while machine is running in steady-state conditions are considered while run-up or run-down speed variations are not taken into account. The machine is also supposed to run in idle conditions so non-stationary phenomena due to the load are not considered. It is theoretically assessed that in such operating conditions the deterministic (periodic) signal in the angle domain becomes cyclostationary at first and second orders in the time domain. This fact justifies the use of the RRCR algorithm, which is able to directly extract the angle deterministic signal from the time domain without performing any kind of interpolation. This is particularly valuable when angular resampling fails because of uncontrolled speed fluctuations. The capability of the proposed approach is verified by means of simulated and actual vibration signals captured on a pneumatic screwdriver handle. In this particular case not only the extraction of the angle deterministic part can be performed but also the separation of the main sources of excitation (i.e. motor shaft imbalance, epyciloidal gear meshing and air pressure forces) affecting the user hand during operations.

Northern Hemisphere glaciation and the evolution of Plio-Pleistocene climate noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyers, Stephen R.; Hinnov, Linda A.

2010-08-01

Deterministic orbital controls on climate variability are commonly inferred to dominate across timescales of 104-106 years, although some studies have suggested that stochastic processes may be of equal or greater importance. Here we explicitly quantify changes in deterministic orbital processes (forcing and/or pacing) versus stochastic climate processes during the Plio-Pleistocene, via time-frequency analysis of two prominent foraminifera oxygen isotopic stacks. Our results indicate that development of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheet is paralleled by an overall amplification of both deterministic and stochastic climate energy, but their relative dominance is variable. The progression from a more stochastic early Pliocene to a strongly deterministic late Pleistocene is primarily accommodated during two transitory phases of Northern Hemisphere ice sheet growth. This long-term trend is punctuated by “stochastic events,” which we interpret as evidence for abrupt reorganization of the climate system at the initiation and termination of the mid-Pleistocene transition and at the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. In addition to highlighting a complex interplay between deterministic and stochastic climate change during the Plio-Pleistocene, our results support an early onset for Northern Hemisphere glaciation (between 3.5 and 3.7 Ma) and reveal some new characteristics of the orbital signal response, such as the puzzling emergence of 100 ka and 400 ka cyclic climate variability during theoretical eccentricity nodes.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of two different antimicrobial stewardship programs.

PubMed

Okumura, Lucas Miyake; Riveros, Bruno Salgado; Gomes-da-Silva, Monica Maria; Veroneze, Izelandia

2016-01-01

There is a lack of formal economic analysis to assess the efficiency of antimicrobial stewardship programs. Herein, we conducted a cost-effectiveness study to assess two different strategies of Antimicrobial Stewardship Programs. A 30-day Markov model was developed to analyze how cost-effective was a Bundled Antimicrobial Stewardship implemented in a university hospital in Brazil. Clinical data derived from a historical cohort that compared two different strategies of antimicrobial stewardship programs and had 30-day mortality as main outcome. Selected costs included: workload, cost of defined daily doses, length of stay, laboratory and imaging resources used to diagnose infections. Data were analyzed by deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to assess model's robustness, tornado diagram and Cost-Effectiveness Acceptability Curve. Bundled Strategy was more expensive (Cost difference US$ 2119.70), however, it was more efficient (US$ 27,549.15 vs 29,011.46). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis suggested that critical variables did not alter final Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio. Bundled Strategy had higher probabilities of being cost-effective, which was endorsed by cost-effectiveness acceptability curve. As health systems claim for efficient technologies, this study conclude that Bundled Antimicrobial Stewardship Program was more cost-effective, which means that stewardship strategies with such characteristics would be of special interest in a societal and clinical perspective. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Research on propagation properties of controllable hollow flat-topped beams in turbulent atmosphere based on ABCD matrix

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Huilong; Lü, Yanfei; Zhang, Jing; Xia, Jing; Pu, Xiaoyun; Dong, Yuan; Li, Shutao; Fu, Xihong; Zhang, Angfeng; Wang, Changjia; Tan, Yong; Zhang, Xihe

2015-01-01

This paper studies the propagation properties of controllable hollow flat-topped beams (CHFBs) in turbulent atmosphere based on ABCD matrix, sets up a propagation model and obtains an analytical expression for the propagation. With the help of numerical simulation, the propagation properties of CHFBs in different parameters are studied. Results indicate that in turbulent atmosphere, with the increase of propagation distance, the darkness of CHFBs gradually annihilate, and eventually evolve into Gaussian beams. Compared with the propagation properties in free space, the turbulent atmosphere enhances the diffraction effect of CHFBs and reduces the propagation distance for CHFBs to evolve into Gaussian beams. In strong turbulence atmospheric propagation, Airy disk phenomenon will disappear. The study on the propagation properties of CHFBs in turbulence atmosphere by using ABCD matrix is simple and convenient. This method can also be applied to study the propagation properties of other hollow laser beams in turbulent atmosphere.

Coupling hydrologic and hydraulic models to take into consideration retention effects on extreme peak discharges in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felder, Guido; Zischg, Andreas; Weingartner, Rolf

2015-04-01

Estimating peak discharges with very low probabilities is still accompanied by large uncertainties. Common estimation methods are usually based on extreme value statistics applied to observed time series or to hydrological model outputs. However, such methods assume the system to be stationary and do not specifically consider non-stationary effects. Observed time series may exclude events where peak discharge is damped by retention effects, as this process does not occur until specific thresholds, possibly beyond those of the highest measured event, are exceeded. Hydrological models can be complemented and parameterized with non-linear functions. However, in such cases calibration depends on observed data and non-stationary behaviour is not deterministically calculated. Our study discusses the option of considering retention effects on extreme peak discharges by coupling hydrological and hydraulic models. This possibility is tested by forcing the semi-distributed deterministic hydrological model PREVAH with randomly generated, physically plausible extreme precipitation patterns. The resulting hydrographs are then used to force the hydraulic model BASEMENT-ETH (riverbed in 1D, potential inundation areas in 2D). The procedure ensures that the estimated extreme peak discharge does not exceed the physical limit given by the riverbed capacity and that the dampening effect of inundation processes on peak discharge is considered.

Impact of pumping configuration on all-fibered femtosecond chirped pulse amplification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lecourt, Jean-Bernard; Duterte, Charles; Bertrand, Anthony; Liégeois, Flavien; Hernandez, Yves; Giannone, Domenico

2008-04-01

We experimentally compared the co- and counter-propagative pumping scheme for the amplification of ultra-short optical pulses. According to pumping direction we show that optical pulses with a duration of 75 fs and 100mW of average output power can be obtained for co-propagative pumping, while pulse duration is never shorter than 400 fs for the counter-propagative case. We show that the impact of non-linear effects on pulse propagation is different for the two pumping configurations. We assume that Self Phase Modulation (SPM) is the main effect in the copropagative case, whereas the impact of Stimulated Raman Scattering is bigger for the counter-propagative case.